WorldWideScience

Sample records for modeling cumulative evidence

  1. Cumulative fatigue damage models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mcgaw, Michael A.

    1988-01-01

    The problem of calculating expected component life under fatigue loading conditions is complicated by the fact that component loading histories contain, in many cases, cyclic loads of widely varying amplitudes. In such a case a cumulative damage model is required, in addition to a fatigue damage criterion, or life relationship, in order to compute the expected fatigue life. The traditional cumulative damage model used in design is the linear damage rule. This model, while being simple to use, can yield grossly unconservative results under certain loading conditions. Research at the NASA Lewis Research Center has led to the development of a nonlinear cumulative damage model, named the double damage curve approach (DDCA), that has greatly improved predictive capability. This model, which considers the life (or loading) level dependence of damage evolution, was applied successfully to two polycrystalline materials, 316 stainless steel and Haynes 188. The cumulative fatigue behavior of the PWA 1480 single-crystal material is currently being measured to determine the applicability of the DDCA for this material.

  2. Nonlinear cumulative damage model for multiaxial fatigue

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SHANG De-guang; SUN Guo-qin; DENG Jing; YAN Chu-liang

    2006-01-01

    On the basis of the continuum fatigue damage theory,a nonlinear uniaxial fatigue cumulative damage model is first proposed.In order to describe multiaxial fatigue damage characteristics,a nonlinear multiaxial fatigue cumulative damage model is developed based on the critical plane approach,The proposed model can consider the multiaxial fatigue limit,mean hydrostatic pressure and the unseparated characteristic for the damage variables and loading parameters.The recurrence formula of fatigue damage model was derived under multilevel loading,which is used to predict multiaxial fatigue life.The results showed that the proposed nonlinear multiaxial fatigue cumulative damage model is better than Miner's rule.

  3. Petrogenesis of the nakhlite meteorites - Evidence from cumulate mineral zoning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harvey, Ralph P.; Mcsween, Harry Y., Jr.

    1992-01-01

    Attention is given to a simple igneous petrogenesis for the meteorite Nakhla, which was previously called into question because Mg/Fe ratios in olivine indicate substantial disequilibrium between the predominant cumulus minerals (olivine and augite). Comparative analyses of simulated diffusive zoning and the observed cumulus mineral zoning for all three nakhlites (Nakhla, Governador Valadares, and Lafayette) show that their current compositions do not necessarily reflect parental magma compositions. Diffusion has altered primary cumulus compositions to varying degrees, Nakhla being the least affected, and Lafayette being almost completely reequilibrated. Since mineral zoning in each meteorite is strongly concentric around mesostasis areas, it is inferred that reaction with intercumulus liquid has controlled the observed zoning. It is argued that the nakhlites appear to be a series of relatively simple cumulate rocks which have undergone various amounts of late-magmatic and subsolidus diffusion, possibly reflecting their relative positions in a cooling cumulate pile.

  4. Petrogenesis of the nakhlite meteorites: Evidence from cumulate mineral zoning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Harvey, R.P.; McSween, H.Y. Jr. (Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville (United States))

    1992-04-01

    A simple igneous petrogenesis for the meteorite Nakhla has previously been called into question because Mg/Fe ratios in olivine indicate substantial disequilibrium between the predominant cumulus minerals (olivine and augite). Comparative analyses of simulated diffusive zoning and the observed cumulus mineral zoning for all three nakhlites (Nakhla, Governador Valadares, and Lafayette) show that their current compositions do not necessarily reflect parental magma compositions. Instead, diffusion has altered primary cumulus compositions to varying degrees, Nakhla being the least affected, and Lafayette being almost completely re-equilibrated. Only the cores of augite grains in Nakhla and Governador Valadares appear to have preserved their original compositions. Mineral zoning in each meteorite is strongly concentric around mesostasis areas, suggesting that reaction with intercumulus liquid has controlled the observed zoning. The presence of pigeonite and orthopyroxene overgrowths in Nakhla and Governador Valadares, and of poikilitic orthopyroxene enclosing olivine relicts in Lafayette, indicate substantial late-magmatic reactions. Two-pyroxene geothermometry for Lafayette indicates temperatures around 95C, suggesting subsolidus equilibration as well. The nakhlites appear to be a series of relatively simple cumulate rocks which have undergone various amounts of late-magmatic and subsolidus diffusion, possibly reflecting their relative positions in a cooling cumulate pile.

  5. Analysis of sensory ratings data with cumulative link models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Rune Haubo Bojesen; Brockhoff, Per B.

    2013-01-01

    Examples of categorical rating scales include discrete preference, liking and hedonic rating scales. Data obtained on these scales are often analyzed with normal linear regression methods or with omnibus Pearson chi2 tests. In this paper we propose to use cumulative link models that allow...... for regression methods similar to linear models while respecting the categorical nature of the observations. We describe how cumulative link models are related to the omnibus chi2 tests and how they can lead to more powerful tests in the non-replicated setting. For replicated categorical ratings data we present...... a quasi-likelihood approach and a mixed effects approach both being extensions of cumulative link models. We contrast population-average and subject-specific interpretations based on these models and discuss how different approaches lead to different tests. In replicated settings, naive tests that ignore...

  6. The proportional odds cumulative incidence model for competing risks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Eriksson, Frank; Li, Jianing; Scheike, Thomas

    2015-01-01

    We suggest an estimator for the proportional odds cumulative incidence model for competing risks data. The key advantage of this model is that the regression parameters have the simple and useful odds ratio interpretation. The model has been considered by many authors, but it is rarely used in pr...

  7. A cumulative entropy method for distribution recognition of model error

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Yingjie; Chen, Wen

    2015-02-01

    This paper develops a cumulative entropy method (CEM) to recognize the most suitable distribution for model error. In terms of the CEM, the Lévy stable distribution is employed to capture the statistical properties of model error. The strategies are tested on 250 experiments of axially loaded CFT steel stub columns in conjunction with the four national building codes of Japan (AIJ, 1997), China (DL/T, 1999), the Eurocode 4 (EU4, 2004), and United States (AISC, 2005). The cumulative entropy method is validated as more computationally efficient than the Shannon entropy method. Compared with the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and root mean square deviation, the CEM provides alternative and powerful model selection criterion to recognize the most suitable distribution for the model error.

  8. More Versus Less Intensive Blood Pressure-Lowering Strategy: Cumulative Evidence and Trial Sequential Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verdecchia, Paolo; Angeli, Fabio; Gentile, Giorgio; Reboldi, Gianpaolo

    2016-09-01

    Several randomized trials compared a more versus less intensive blood pressure-lowering strategy on the risk of major cardiovascular events and death. Cumulative meta-analyses and trial sequential analyses can establish whether and when firm evidence favoring a specific intervention has been reached from accrued literature. Therefore, we conducted a cumulative trial sequential analysis of 18 trials that randomly allocated 53 405 patients to a more or less intensive blood pressure-lowering strategy. We sought to ascertain the extent to which trial evidence added to previously accrued data. Outcome measures were stroke, myocardial infarction, heart failure, cardiovascular death, and all-cause death. Achieved blood pressure was 7.6/4.5 mm Hg lower with the more intensive than the less intensive blood pressure-lowering strategy. For stroke and myocardial infarction, the cumulative Z curve crossed the efficacy monitoring boundary solely after the SPRINT (Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial) study, thereby providing firm evidence of superiority of a more intensive over a less intensive blood pressure-lowering strategy. For cardiovascular death and heart failure, the cumulative Z curve crossed the conventional significance boundary, but not the sequential monitoring boundary, after SPRINT. For all-cause death, the SPRINT trial pushed the cumulative Z curve away from the futility area, without reaching the conventional significance boundary. We conclude that evidence accrued to date strongly supports the superiority of a more intensive versus a less intensive blood pressure-lowering strategy for prevention of stroke and myocardial infarction. Cardiovascular death and heart failure are likely to be reduced by a more intensive blood pressure-lowering strategy, but evidence is not yet conclusive.

  9. Cumulative Incidence Association Models for Bivariate Competing Risks Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Yu; Fine, Jason P

    2012-03-01

    Association models, like frailty and copula models, are frequently used to analyze clustered survival data and evaluate within-cluster associations. The assumption of noninformative censoring is commonly applied to these models, though it may not be true in many situations. In this paper, we consider bivariate competing risk data and focus on association models specified for the bivariate cumulative incidence function (CIF), a nonparametrically identifiable quantity. Copula models are proposed which relate the bivariate CIF to its corresponding univariate CIFs, similarly to independently right censored data, and accommodate frailty models for the bivariate CIF. Two estimating equations are developed to estimate the association parameter, permitting the univariate CIFs to be estimated either parametrically or nonparametrically. Goodness-of-fit tests are presented for formally evaluating the parametric models. Both estimators perform well with moderate sample sizes in simulation studies. The practical use of the methodology is illustrated in an analysis of dementia associations.

  10. Modelling the evolution and diversity of cumulative culture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Enquist, Magnus; Ghirlanda, Stefano; Eriksson, Kimmo

    2011-01-01

    Previous work on mathematical models of cultural evolution has mainly focused on the diffusion of simple cultural elements. However, a characteristic feature of human cultural evolution is the seemingly limitless appearance of new and increasingly complex cultural elements. Here, we develop a general modelling framework to study such cumulative processes, in which we assume that the appearance and disappearance of cultural elements are stochastic events that depend on the current state of culture. Five scenarios are explored: evolution of independent cultural elements, stepwise modification of elements, differentiation or combination of elements and systems of cultural elements. As one application of our framework, we study the evolution of cultural diversity (in time as well as between groups). PMID:21199845

  11. Modelling the evolution and diversity of cumulative culture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Enquist, Magnus; Ghirlanda, Stefano; Eriksson, Kimmo

    2011-02-12

    Previous work on mathematical models of cultural evolution has mainly focused on the diffusion of simple cultural elements. However, a characteristic feature of human cultural evolution is the seemingly limitless appearance of new and increasingly complex cultural elements. Here, we develop a general modelling framework to study such cumulative processes, in which we assume that the appearance and disappearance of cultural elements are stochastic events that depend on the current state of culture. Five scenarios are explored: evolution of independent cultural elements, stepwise modification of elements, differentiation or combination of elements and systems of cultural elements. As one application of our framework, we study the evolution of cultural diversity (in time as well as between groups).

  12. A bivariate optimal replacement policy with cumulative repair cost limit under cumulative damage model

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    MIN-T SAI LAI; SHIH-CHIH CHEN

    2016-05-01

    In this paper, a bivariate replacement policy (n, T) for a cumulative shock damage process is presented that included the concept of cumulative repair cost limit. The arrival shocks can be divided into two kinds of shocks. Each type-I shock causes a random amount of damage and these damages are additive. When the total damage exceeds a failure level, the system goes into serious failure. Type-II shock causes the system into minor failure and such a failure can be corrected by minimal repair. When a minor failure occurs, the repaircost will be evaluated and minimal repair is executed if the accumulated repair cost is less than a predetermined limit L. The system is replaced at scheduled time T, at n-th minor failure, or at serious failure. The long-term expected cost per unit time is derived using the expected costs as the optimality criterion. The minimum-cost policy is derived, and existence and uniqueness of the optimal n* and T* are proved. This bivariate optimal replacement policy (n, T) is showed to be better than the optimal T* and the optimal n* policy.

  13. Model-checking techniques based on cumulative residuals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, D Y; Wei, L J; Ying, Z

    2002-03-01

    Residuals have long been used for graphical and numerical examinations of the adequacy of regression models. Conventional residual analysis based on the plots of raw residuals or their smoothed curves is highly subjective, whereas most numerical goodness-of-fit tests provide little information about the nature of model misspecification. In this paper, we develop objective and informative model-checking techniques by taking the cumulative sums of residuals over certain coordinates (e.g., covariates or fitted values) or by considering some related aggregates of residuals, such as moving sums and moving averages. For a variety of statistical models and data structures, including generalized linear models with independent or dependent observations, the distributions of these stochastic processes tinder the assumed model can be approximated by the distributions of certain zero-mean Gaussian processes whose realizations can be easily generated by computer simulation. Each observed process can then be compared, both graphically and numerically, with a number of realizations from the Gaussian process. Such comparisons enable one to assess objectively whether a trend seen in a residual plot reflects model misspecification or natural variation. The proposed techniques are particularly useful in checking the functional form of a covariate and the link function. Illustrations with several medical studies are provided.

  14. Flexible parametric modelling of cause-specific hazards to estimate cumulative incidence functions

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Background Competing risks are a common occurrence in survival analysis. They arise when a patient is at risk of more than one mutually exclusive event, such as death from different causes, and the occurrence of one of these may prevent any other event from ever happening. Methods There are two main approaches to modelling competing risks: the first is to model the cause-specific hazards and transform these to the cumulative incidence function; the second is to model directly on a transformation of the cumulative incidence function. We focus on the first approach in this paper. This paper advocates the use of the flexible parametric survival model in this competing risk framework. Results An illustrative example on the survival of breast cancer patients has shown that the flexible parametric proportional hazards model has almost perfect agreement with the Cox proportional hazards model. However, the large epidemiological data set used here shows clear evidence of non-proportional hazards. The flexible parametric model is able to adequately account for these through the incorporation of time-dependent effects. Conclusion A key advantage of using this approach is that smooth estimates of both the cause-specific hazard rates and the cumulative incidence functions can be obtained. It is also relatively easy to incorporate time-dependent effects which are commonly seen in epidemiological studies. PMID:23384310

  15. Mathematical modeling of detonation initiation via flow cumulation effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Semenov, I.; Utkin, P.; Akhmedyanov, I.

    2016-07-01

    The paper concerns two problems connected with the idea of gaseous detonation initiation via flow cumulation effects and convergence of relatively weak shock waves (SW). The first one is the three-dimensional (3D) numerical investigation of shock-to-detonation transition (SDT) in methane-air mixture in a tube with parabolic contraction followed by the tube section of narrow diameter and conical expansion. The second problem is the numerical study of the start-up of the model small-scale hydrogen electrochemical pulse detonation engine with the use of electrical discharge generating the toroidal SW. The investigation is performed by means of numerical simulation with the use of modern high-performance computing systems.

  16. Predicting Cumulative Watershed Effects using Spatially Explicit Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacDonald, L. H.; Litschert, S.

    2004-12-01

    Cumulative watershed effects /(CWEs/) result from the combined effects of land disturbances distributed over both space and time. They are of concern because changes in flow and sediment yields can adversely affect aquatic habitat, channel morphology, water yields, and water quality. The assessment procedures currently used by agencies such as the U.S. Forest Service generally rely on a lumped approach to quantify disturbance, despite the widespread recognition that site conditions and location do matter! The overall goal of our work is to develop spatially-explicit models to quantify changes in flow and sediment yields. Key objectives include: use of readily available GIS data; ease of use for resource managers with minimal GIS experience; modularity so that models can be added or updated; and allowing users to select the models and values for key parameters. The DeltaQ model calculates changes in peak, median, and low flows due to forest management activities and fires. Inputs include GIS data with disturbance polygons, an initial change in flow rate, and the time to recovery. Data from paired watershed studies are provided to help guide the user. The initial version of FORest Erosion Simulation Tools /(FOREST/) calculates sediment production from forest harvest, fires, and unpaved roads. Additional modules are being developed to deliver this sediment to the stream channel and route it to downstream locations. In accordance with our objectives, the user can predict sediment production rates using different empirical equations, assign an initial sediment production rate and a specified linear recovery period, or develop a look-up table based on local knowledge, published values, or data from other models such as WEPP. The required GIS layers vary according to the model/(s/) selected, but generally include past disturbances /(e.g., fires and timber harvest/), roads, and elevation. Outputs include GIS layers and text files that can be subjected to additional

  17. Single-word predictions of upcoming language during comprehension: Evidence from the cumulative semantic interference task.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kleinman, Daniel; Runnqvist, Elin; Ferreira, Victor S

    2015-06-01

    Comprehenders predict upcoming speech and text on the basis of linguistic input. How many predictions do comprehenders make for an upcoming word? If a listener strongly expects to hear the word "sock", is the word "shirt" partially expected as well, is it actively inhibited, or is it ignored? The present research addressed these questions by measuring the "downstream" effects of prediction on the processing of subsequently presented stimuli using the cumulative semantic interference paradigm. In three experiments, subjects named pictures (sock) that were presented either in isolation or after strongly constraining sentence frames ("After doing his laundry, Mark always seemed to be missing one…"). Naming sock slowed the subsequent naming of the picture shirt - the standard cumulative semantic interference effect. However, although picture naming was much faster after sentence frames, the interference effect was not modulated by the context (bare vs. sentence) in which either picture was presented. According to the only model of cumulative semantic interference that can account for such a pattern of data, this indicates that comprehenders pre-activated and maintained the pre-activation of best sentence completions (sock) but did not maintain the pre-activation of less likely completions (shirt). Thus, comprehenders predicted only the most probable completion for each sentence.

  18. Modelling the cumulative risk of a false-positive screening test.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hubbard, Rebecca A; Miglioretti, Diana L; Smith, Robert A

    2010-10-01

    The goal of a screening test is to reduce morbidity and mortality through the early detection of disease; but the benefits of screening must be weighed against potential harms, such as false-positive (FP) results, which may lead to increased healthcare costs, patient anxiety, and other adverse outcomes associated with diagnostic follow-up procedures. Accurate estimation of the cumulative risk of an FP test after multiple screening rounds is important for program evaluation and goal setting, as well as informing individuals undergoing screening what they should expect from testing over time. Estimation of the cumulative FP risk is complicated by the existence of censoring and possible dependence of the censoring time on the event history. Current statistical methods for estimating the cumulative FP risk from censored data follow two distinct approaches, either conditioning on the number of screening tests observed or marginalizing over this random variable. We review these current methods, identify their limitations and possibly unrealistic assumptions, and propose simple extensions to address some of these limitations. We discuss areas where additional extensions may be useful. We illustrate methods for estimating the cumulative FP recall risk of screening mammography and investigate the appropriateness of modelling assumptions using 13 years of data collected by the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium (BCSC). In the BCSC data we found evidence of violations of modelling assumptions of both classes of statistical methods. The estimated risk of an FP recall after 10 screening mammograms varied between 58% and 77% depending on the approach used, with an estimate of 63% based on what we feel are the most reasonable modelling assumptions.

  19. A Cumulative Damage Reliability Model on the Basis of Contact Fatigue of the Rolling Bearing

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    HUANG Li

    2006-01-01

    A cumulative damage reliability model of contact fatigue of the rolling bearing is more identical with the actual conditions. It is put forward on the basis of contact fatigue life probability distribution of the rolling bearing that obey Weibull distribution and rest on the Miner cumulative damage theory. Finally a case is given to predict the reliability of bearing roller by using these models.

  20. Modeling the cumulative genetic risk for multiple sclerosis from genome-wide association data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Joanne H; Pappas, Derek; De Jager, Philip L; Pelletier, Daniel; de Bakker, Paul Iw; Kappos, Ludwig; Polman, Chris H; Chibnik, Lori B; Hafler, David A; Matthews, Paul M; Hauser, Stephen L; Baranzini, Sergio E; Oksenberg, Jorge R

    2011-01-18

    Multiple sclerosis (MS) is the most common cause of chronic neurologic disability beginning in early to middle adult life. Results from recent genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have substantially lengthened the list of disease loci and provide convincing evidence supporting a multifactorial and polygenic model of inheritance. Nevertheless, the knowledge of MS genetics remains incomplete, with many risk alleles still to be revealed. We used a discovery GWAS dataset (8,844 samples, 2,124 cases and 6,720 controls) and a multi-step logistic regression protocol to identify novel genetic associations. The emerging genetic profile included 350 independent markers and was used to calculate and estimate the cumulative genetic risk in an independent validation dataset (3,606 samples). Analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) was implemented to compare clinical characteristics of individuals with various degrees of genetic risk. Gene ontology and pathway enrichment analysis was done using the DAVID functional annotation tool, the GO Tree Machine, and the Pathway-Express profiling tool. In the discovery dataset, the median cumulative genetic risk (P-Hat) was 0.903 and 0.007 in the case and control groups, respectively, together with 79.9% classification sensitivity and 95.8% specificity. The identified profile shows a significant enrichment of genes involved in the immune response, cell adhesion, cell communication/signaling, nervous system development, and neuronal signaling, including ionotropic glutamate receptors, which have been implicated in the pathological mechanism driving neurodegeneration. In the validation dataset, the median cumulative genetic risk was 0.59 and 0.32 in the case and control groups, respectively, with classification sensitivity 62.3% and specificity 75.9%. No differences in disease progression or T2-lesion volumes were observed among four levels of predicted genetic risk groups (high, medium, low, misclassified). On the other hand, a significant

  1. Robust user equilibrium model based on cumulative prospect theory under distribution-free travel time

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王伟; 孙会君; 吴建军

    2015-01-01

    The assumption widely used in the user equilibrium model for stochastic network was that the probability distributions of the travel time were known explicitly by travelers. However, this distribution may be unavailable in reality. By relaxing the restrictive assumption, a robust user equilibrium model based on cumulative prospect theory under distribution-free travel time was presented. In the absence of the cumulative distribution function of the travel time, the exact cumulative prospect value (CPV) for each route cannot be obtained. However, the upper and lower bounds on the CPV can be calculated by probability inequalities. Travelers were assumed to choose the routes with the best worst-case CPVs. The proposed model was formulated as a variational inequality problem and solved via a heuristic solution algorithm. A numerical example was also provided to illustrate the application of the proposed model and the efficiency of the solution algorithm.

  2. Cumulative t-link threshold models for the genetic analysis of calving ease scores

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tempelman Robert J

    2003-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract In this study, a hierarchical threshold mixed model based on a cumulative t-link specification for the analysis of ordinal data or more, specifically, calving ease scores, was developed. The validation of this model and the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC algorithm was carried out on simulated data from normally and t4 (i.e. a t-distribution with four degrees of freedom distributed populations using the deviance information criterion (DIC and a pseudo Bayes factor (PBF measure to validate recently proposed model choice criteria. The simulation study indicated that although inference on the degrees of freedom parameter is possible, MCMC mixing was problematic. Nevertheless, the DIC and PBF were validated to be satisfactory measures of model fit to data. A sire and maternal grandsire cumulative t-link model was applied to a calving ease dataset from 8847 Italian Piemontese first parity dams. The cumulative t-link model was shown to lead to posterior means of direct and maternal heritabilities (0.40 ± 0.06, 0.11 ± 0.04 and a direct maternal genetic correlation (-0.58 ± 0.15 that were not different from the corresponding posterior means of the heritabilities (0.42 ± 0.07, 0.14 ± 0.04 and the genetic correlation (-0.55 ± 0.14 inferred under the conventional cumulative probit link threshold model. Furthermore, the correlation (> 0.99 between posterior means of sire progeny merit from the two models suggested no meaningful rerankings. Nevertheless, the cumulative t-link model was decisively chosen as the better fitting model for this calving ease data using DIC and PBF.

  3. Multiscale impacts of armoring on Salish Sea shorelines: Evidence for cumulative and threshold effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dethier, Megan N.; Raymond, Wendel W.; McBride, Aundrea N.; Toft, Jason D.; Cordell, Jeffery R.; Ogston, Andrea S.; Heerhartz, Sarah M.; Berry, Helen D.

    2016-06-01

    Shoreline armoring is widespread in many parts of the protected inland waters of the Pacific Northwest, U.S.A, but impacts on physical and biological features of local nearshore ecosystems have only recently begun to be documented. Armoring marine shorelines can alter natural processes at multiple spatial and temporal scales; some, such as starving the beach of sediments by blocking input from upland bluffs may take decades to become visible, while others such as placement loss of armoring construction are immediate. We quantified a range of geomorphic and biological parameters at paired, nearby armored and unarmored beaches throughout the inland waters of Washington State to test what conditions and parameters are associated with armoring. We gathered identical datasets at a total of 65 pairs of beaches: 6 in South Puget Sound, 23 in Central Puget Sound, and 36 pairs North of Puget Sound proper. At this broad scale, demonstrating differences attributable to armoring is challenging given the high natural variability in measured parameters among beaches and regions. However, we found that armoring was consistently associated with reductions in beach width, riparian vegetation, numbers of accumulated logs, and amounts and types of beach wrack and associated invertebrates. Armoring-related patterns at lower beach elevations (further vertically from armoring) were progressively harder to detect. For some parameters, such as accumulated logs, there was a distinct threshold in armoring elevation that was associated with increased impacts. This large dataset for the first time allowed us to identify cumulative impacts that appear when increasing proportions of shorelines are armored. At large spatial and temporal scales, armoring much of a sediment drift cell may result in reduction of the finer grain-size fractions on beaches, including those used by spawning forage fish. Overall we have shown that local impacts of shoreline armoring can scale-up to have cumulative and

  4. Cumulants of the three-state Potts model and of nonequilibrium models with C{sub 3v} symmetry

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tome, Tania [Instituto de Fisica, Universidade de Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil); Petri, Alberto [Istituto di Acustica O M Corbino, Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Via del Fosso del Cavaliere, Rome (Italy)

    2002-07-05

    The critical behaviour of two-dimensional stochastic lattice gas models with C{sub 3v} symmetry is analysed. We study the cumulants of the order parameter for the three-state (equilibrium) Potts model and for two irreversible models whose dynamic rules are invariant under the symmetry operations of the point group C{sub 3v}. By means of extensive numerical analysis of the phase transition we show that irreversibility does not affect the critical behaviour of the systems. In particular, we find that the Binder reduced fourth-order cumulant takes a universal value U* which is the same for the three-state Potts model and for the irreversible models. The same universal behaviour is observed for the reduced third-order cumulant. (author)

  5. Checking Fine and Gray subdistribution hazards model with cumulative sums of residuals

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Li, Jianing; Scheike, Thomas; Zhang, Mei Jie

    2015-01-01

    Recently, Fine and Gray (J Am Stat Assoc 94:496–509, 1999) proposed a semi-parametric proportional regression model for the subdistribution hazard function which has been used extensively for analyzing competing risks data. However, failure of model adequacy could lead to severe bias in parameter...... estimation, and only a limited contribution has been made to check the model assumptions. In this paper, we present a class of analytical methods and graphical approaches for checking the assumptions of Fine and Gray’s model. The proposed goodness-of-fit test procedures are based on the cumulative sums...

  6. Monitoring of nosocomial invasive aspergillosis and early evidence of an outbreak using cumulative sum tests (CUSUM).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Menotti, J; Porcher, R; Ribaud, P; Lacroix, C; Jolivet, V; Hamane, S; Derouin, F

    2010-09-01

    In order to provide a statistically based evaluation of the incidence of invasive aspergillosis (IA) over time, we applied the cumulative sums (CUSUM) methodology, which was developed for quality control and has already been applied for the surveillance of hospital-acquired infections. Cases of IA were recorded during a 5-year period. Incidence rates of cases assumed to be hospital-acquired, i.e. nosocomial IA (NIA), were analysed using CUSUM tests. Relationships between NIA, fungal contamination and construction or renovation work were tested using time-series methods. Between January 2002 and December 2006, 81 cases of NIA were recorded. CUSUM analysis of NIA incidence showed no significant deviation from the expected monthly number of cases until August 2005, and then the CUSUM crossed the decision limit, i.e. identified a significant increase in NIA as compared with the reference period (January 2002 to December 2004). Up to April 2006, the learning-curve CUSUM stayed over its limit, supporting an ongoing outbreak involving 24 patients, and then it significantly decreased in May 2006. Follow-up after May 2006 indicated no out-of-control situation, supporting a return to the baseline situation. In haematology wards, significant links were found between NIA incidence and fungal contamination of several sites at each ward (mainly unprotected common sites). An environmental source of contamination could be suspected, but no significant relationship was found between NIA incidence and ongoing construction or renovation. In conclusion, the CUSUM test proved to be well suited for real-time monitoring of NIA and for early identification and follow-up of an outbreak.

  7. Evaluation of the cumulative evidence for freedom from BSE in birth cohorts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Böhning, Dankmar; Greiner, Matthias

    2006-01-01

    Substantial resources are used for surveillance of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) despite an extremely low detection rate, especially in healthy slaughtered cattle. We have developed a method based on the geometric waiting time distribution to establish and update the statistical evidence...

  8. An analytical model for cumulative infiltration into a dual-permeability media

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peyrard, Xavier; Lassabatere, Laurent; Angulo-Jaramillo, Rafael; Simunek, Jiri

    2010-05-01

    Modeling of water infiltration into the vadose zone is important for better understanding of movement of water-transported contaminants. There is a great need to take into account the soil heterogeneity and, in particular, the presence of macropores or cracks that could generate preferential flow. Several mathematical models have been proposed to describe unsaturated flow through heterogeneous soils. The dual-permeability model assumes that flow is governed by Richards equation in both porous regions (matrix and fractures). Water can be exchanged between the two regions following a first-order rate law. A previous study showed that the influence of the hydraulic conductivity of the matrix/macropore interface had a little influence on cumulative infiltration at the soil surface. As a result, one could consider the surface infiltration for a specific case of no water exchange between the fracture and matrix regions (a case of zero interfacial hydraulic conductivity). In such a case, water infiltration can be considered to be the sum of the cumulative infiltrations into the matrix and the fractures. On the basis of analytical models for each sub domain (matrix and fractures), an analytical model is proposed for the entire dual-porosity system. A sensitivity analysis is performed to characterize the influence of several factors, such as the saturated hydraulic conductivity ratio, the water pressure scale parameter ratio, and the saturated volumetric water content scale ratio, on the total cumulative infiltration. Such an analysis greatly helps in quantifying the impact of macroporosity and fractures on water infiltration, which can be of great interest for hydrological models.

  9. On scheduling models for the frequency interval assignment problem with cumulative interferences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiatmanaroj, Kata; Artigues, Christian; Houssin, Laurent

    2016-05-01

    In this article, models and methods for solving a real-life frequency assignment problem based on scheduling theory are investigated. A realistic frequency assignment problem involving cumulative interference constraints in which the aim is to maximize the number of assigned users is considered. If interferences are assumed to be binary, a multiple carrier frequency assignment problem can be treated as a disjunctive scheduling problem since a user requesting a number of contiguous frequencies can be considered as a non-preemptive task with a processing time, and two interfering users can be modelled through a disjunctive constraint on the corresponding tasks. A binary interference version of the problem is constructed and a disjunctive scheduling model is derived. Based on the binary representation, two models are proposed. The first one relies on an interference matrix and the second one considers maximal cliques. A third, cumulative, model that yields a new class of scheduling problems is also proposed. Computational experiments show that the case-study frequency assignment problem can be solved efficiently with disjunctive scheduling techniques.

  10. Modeling Joint Exposures and Health Outcomes for Cumulative Risk Assessment: The Case of Radon and Smoking

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jonathan I. Levy

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Community-based cumulative risk assessment requires characterization of exposures to multiple chemical and non-chemical stressors, with consideration of how the non-chemical stressors may influence risks from chemical stressors. Residential radon provides an interesting case example, given its large attributable risk, effect modification due to smoking, and significant variability in radon concentrations and smoking patterns. In spite of this fact, no study to date has estimated geographic and sociodemographic patterns of both radon and smoking in a manner that would allow for inclusion of radon in community-based cumulative risk assessment. In this study, we apply multi-level regression models to explain variability in radon based on housing characteristics and geological variables, and construct a regression model predicting housing characteristics using U.S. Census data. Multi-level regression models of smoking based on predictors common to the housing model allow us to link the exposures. We estimate county-average lifetime lung cancer risks from radon ranging from 0.15 to 1.8 in 100, with high-risk clusters in areas and for subpopulations with high predicted radon and smoking rates. Our findings demonstrate the viability of screening-level assessment to characterize patterns of lung cancer risk from radon, with an approach that can be generalized to multiple chemical and non-chemical stressors.

  11. BLIND AND COMPLETE MODELING OF LINEAR SYSTEMS USING THIRD ORDER CUMULANTS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    This paper presents a novel approach to structure determination of linear systems along with the choice of system orders and parameters. AutoRegressive (AR), Moving Average (MA) or AutoRegressive-Moving Average (ARMA) model structure can be extracted blindly from the Third Order Cumulants (TOC) of the system output measurements, where the unknown system is driven by an unobservable stationary independent identically distributed (i.i.d.) non-Gaussian signal. By means of the system order recursion, whether the system has an AR structure or has AR part of an ARMA structure is firstly investigated. MA features in the TOC domain is then applied as a threshold to decide if the system is an MA model or has MA part of an ARMA model. Numerical simulations illustrate the generality of the proposed blind structure identification methodology that may serve as a guideline for blind linear system modeling.

  12. EPA's SHEDS-multimedia model: children's cumulative pyrethroid exposure estimates and evaluation against NHANES biomarker data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xue, Jianping; Zartarian, Valerie; Tornero-Velez, Rogelio; Tulve, Nicolle S

    2014-12-01

    The U.S. EPA's SHEDS-Multimedia model was applied to enhance the understanding of children's exposures and doses to multiple pyrethroid pesticides, including major contributing chemicals and pathways. This paper presents combined dietary and residential exposure estimates and cumulative doses for seven commonly used pyrethroids, and comparisons of model evaluation results with NHANES biomarker data for 3-PBA and DCCA metabolites. Model input distributions were fit to publicly available pesticide usage survey data, NHANES, and other studies, then SHEDS-Multimedia was applied to estimate total pyrethroid exposures and doses for 3-5 year olds for one year variability simulations. For dose estimations we used a pharmacokinetic model and two approaches for simulating dermal absorption. SHEDS-Multimedia predictions compared well to NHANES biomarker data: ratios of 3-PBA observed data to SHEDS-Multimedia modeled results were 0.88, 0.51, 0.54 and 1.02 for mean, median, 95th, and 99th percentiles, respectively; for DCCA, the ratios were 0.82, 0.53, 0.56, and 0.94. Modeled time-averaged cumulative absorbed dose of the seven pyrethroids was 3.1 nmol/day (versus 8.4 nmol/day for adults) in the general population (residential pyrethroid use and non-use homes) and 6.7 nmol/day (versus 10.5 nmol/day for adults) in the simulated residential pyrethroid use population. For the general population, contributions to modeled cumulative dose by chemical were permethrin (60%), cypermethrin (22%), and cyfluthrin (16%); for residential use homes, contributions were cypermethrin (49%), permethrin (29%), and cyfluthrin (17%). The primary exposure route for 3-5 year olds in the simulated residential use population was non-dietary ingestion exposure; whereas for the simulated general population, dietary exposure was the primary exposure route. Below the 95th percentile, the major exposure pathway was dietary for the general population; non-dietary ingestion was the major pathway starting below

  13. [Assessment on the ecological suitability in Zhuhai City, Guangdong, China, based on minimum cumulative resistance model].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jian-fei; Li, Lin; Guo, Luo; Du, Shi-hong

    2016-01-01

    Urban landscape has the characteristics of spatial heterogeneity. Because the expansion process of urban constructive or ecological land has different resistance values, the land unit stimulates and promotes the expansion of ecological land with different intensity. To compare the effect of promoting and hindering functions in the same land unit, we firstly compared the minimum cumulative resistance value of promoting and hindering functions, and then looked for the balance of two landscape processes under the same standard. According to the ecology principle of minimum limit factor, taking the minimum cumulative resistance analysis method under two expansion processes as the evaluation method of urban land ecological suitability, this research took Zhuhai City as the study area to estimate urban ecological suitability by relative evaluation method with remote sensing image, field survey, and statistics data. With the support of ArcGIS, five types of indicators on landscape types, ecological value, soil erosion sensitivity, sensitivity of geological disasters, and ecological function were selected as input parameters in the minimum cumulative resistance model to compute urban ecological suitability. The results showed that the ecological suitability of the whole Zhuhai City was divided into five levels: constructive expansion prohibited zone (10.1%), constructive expansion restricted zone (32.9%), key construction zone (36.3%), priority development zone (2.3%), and basic cropland (18.4%). Ecological suitability of the central area of Zhuhai City was divided into four levels: constructive expansion prohibited zone (11.6%), constructive expansion restricted zone (25.6%), key construction zone (52.4%), priority development zone (10.4%). Finally, we put forward the sustainable development framework of Zhuhai City according to the research conclusion. On one hand, the government should strictly control the development of the urban center area. On the other hand, the

  14. An Evidence-Based Evaluation of the Cumulative Effects of Tidal Freshwater and Estuarine Ecosystem Restoration on Endangered Juvenile Salmon in the Columbia River: Final Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Diefenderfer, Heida L. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Johnson, Gary E. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Thom, Ronald M. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Borde, Amy B. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Woodley, Christa M. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Weitkamp, Laurie A. [Marine Sciences lab., Sequim, WA (United States); Buenau, Kate E. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Kropp, Roy K. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2013-12-01

    The listing of 13 salmon and steelhead stocks in the Columbia River basin (hereafter collectively referred to as “salmon”) under the Endangered Species Act of 1973, as amended, has stimulated tidal wetland restoration in the lower 235 kilometers of the Columbia River and estuary for juvenile salmon habitat functions. The purpose of the research reported herein was to evaluate the effect on listed salmon of the restoration effort currently being conducted under the auspices of the federal Columbia Estuary Ecosystem Restoration Program (CEERP). Linking changes in the quality and landscape pattern of tidal wetlands in the lower Columbia River and estuary (LCRE) to salmon recovery is a complex problem because of the characteristics of the ecosystem, the salmon, the restoration actions, and available sampling technologies. Therefore, we designed an evidence-based approach to develop, synthesize, and evaluate information to determine early-stage (~10 years) outcomes of the CEERP. We developed an ecosystem conceptual model and from that, a primary hypothesis that habitat restoration activities in the LCRE have a cumulative beneficial effect on juvenile salmon. There are two necessary conditions of the hypothesis: • habitat-based indicators of ecosystem controlling factors, processes, and structures show positive effects from restoration actions, and • fish-based indicators of ecosystem processes and functions show positive effects from restoration actions and habitats undergoing restoration. Our evidence-based approach to evaluate the primary hypothesis incorporated seven lines of evidence, most of which are drawn from the LCRE. The lines of evidence are spatial and temporal synergies, cumulative net ecosystem improvement, estuary-wide meta-analysis, offsite benefits to juvenile salmon, landscape condition evaluation, and evidence-based scoring of global literature. The general methods we used to develop information for the lines of evidence included field

  15. Cumulative atomic multipole moments complement any atomic charge model to obtain more accurate electrostatic properties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sokalski, W. A.; Shibata, M.; Ornstein, R. L.; Rein, R.

    1992-01-01

    The quality of several atomic charge models based on different definitions has been analyzed using cumulative atomic multipole moments (CAMM). This formalism can generate higher atomic moments starting from any atomic charges, while preserving the corresponding molecular moments. The atomic charge contribution to the higher molecular moments, as well as to the electrostatic potentials, has been examined for CO and HCN molecules at several different levels of theory. The results clearly show that the electrostatic potential obtained from CAMM expansion is convergent up to R-5 term for all atomic charge models used. This illustrates that higher atomic moments can be used to supplement any atomic charge model to obtain more accurate description of electrostatic properties.

  16. Cumulative Impact Evaluation in Central Part of Liepaja with Comulative Pollution Index Method and Air Pollution Dispersion Modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kalniņš Viesturs

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Cumulative impact evaluation is one of the most actual problems in air quality monitoring. At the same time, it is also the most problematic factor to evaluate due to lack of appropriate methodology. The aim of this study was to assess the opportunity to use a new method – Cumulative Pollution Index (CPI in cumulative impact calculation from two different sets of data – bioindication survey with Index of Atmospheric Purity method and air pollution dispersion modelling. Results show that the usage of modelling data, instead of measurements, in cumulative impact evaluation can be quite difficult due to the fact that dispersion models not always give sufficiently accurate data. Despite the issues with modelling specifics, the use of dispersion modelling in CPI calculation shows that the use of this approach not only gives plausible data – obtained values correlate with pollution level and forming strong clustering in spatial distribution, but also reveals new facts about cumulative impact – demonstrates the city microclimate importance in forming of cumulative effect due to geometry of street canyons.

  17. From cumulative cultural transmission to evidence-based medicine: evolution of medicinal plant knowledge in Southern Italy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leonti, Marco; Staub, Peter O; Cabras, Stefano; Castellanos, Maria Eugenia; Casu, Laura

    2015-01-01

    In Mediterranean cultures written records of medicinal plant use have a long tradition. This written record contributed to building a consensus about what was perceived to be an efficacious pharmacopeia. Passed down through millennia, these scripts have transmitted knowledge about plant uses, with high fidelity, to scholars and laypersons alike. Herbal medicine's importance and the long-standing written record call for a better understanding of the mechanisms influencing the transmission of contemporary medicinal plant knowledge. Here we contextualize herbal medicine within evolutionary medicine and cultural evolution. Cumulative knowledge transmission is approached by estimating the causal effect of two seminal scripts about materia medica written by Dioscorides and Galen, two classical Greco-Roman physicians, on today's medicinal plant use in the Southern Italian regions of Campania, Sardinia, and Sicily. Plant-use combinations are treated as transmissible cultural traits (or "memes"), which in analogy to the biological evolution of genetic traits, are subjected to mutation and selection. Our results suggest that until today ancient scripts have exerted a strong influence on the use of herbal medicine. We conclude that the repeated empirical testing and scientific study of health care claims is guiding and shaping the selection of efficacious treatments and evidence-based herbal medicine.

  18. From cumulative cultural transmission to evidence-based medicine: Evolution of medicinal plant knowledge in Southern Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marco eLeonti

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available In Mediterranean cultures written records of medicinal plant use have a long tradition. This written record contributed to building a consensus about what was perceived to be an efficacious pharmacopoeia. Passed down through millennia, these scripts have transmitted knowledge about plant uses, with high fidelity, to scholars and laypersons alike. Herbal medicine’s importance and the long-standing written record call for a better understanding of the mechanisms influencing the transmission of contemporary medicinal plant knowledge. Here we contextualize herbal medicine within evolutionary medicine and cultural evolution. Cumulative knowledge transmission is approached by estimating the causal effect of two seminal scripts about materia medica written by Dioscorides and Galen, two classical Greco-Roman physicians, on today’s medicinal plant use in the Southern Italian regions of Campania, Sardinia and Sicily. Plant-use combinations are treated as transmissible cultural traits (or memes, which in analogy to the biological evolution of genetic traits, are subjected to mutation and selection. Our results suggest that until today ancient scripts have exerted a strong influence on the use of herbal medicine. We conclude that the repeated empirical testing and scientific study of health care claims is guiding and shaping the selection of efficacious treatments and evidence-based herbal medicine.

  19. Fast and accurate calculations for cumulative first-passage time distributions in Wiener diffusion models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blurton, Steven Paul; Kesselmeier, M.; Gondan, Matthias

    2012-01-01

    related work on the density of first-passage times [Navarro, D.J., Fuss, I.G. (2009). Fast and accurate calculations for first-passage times in Wiener diffusion models. Journal of Mathematical Psychology, 53, 222-230]. Two representations exist for the distribution, both including infinite series. We......We propose an improved method for calculating the cumulative first-passage time distribution in Wiener diffusion models with two absorbing barriers. This distribution function is frequently used to describe responses and error probabilities in choice reaction time tasks. The present work extends...... derive upper bounds for the approximation error resulting from finite truncation of the series, and we determine the number of iterations required to limit the error below a pre-specified tolerance. For a given set of parameters, the representation can then be chosen which requires the least...

  20. Performance of cumulant-based rank reduction estimator in presence of unexpected modeling errors

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王鼎

    2015-01-01

    Compared with the rank reduction estimator (RARE) based on second-order statistics (called SOS-RARE), the RARE based on fourth-order cumulants (referred to as FOC-RARE) can handle more sources and restrain the negative impacts of the Gaussian colored noise. However, the unexpected modeling errors appearing in practice are known to significantly degrade the performance of the RARE. Therefore, the direction-of-arrival (DOA) estimation performance of the FOC-RARE is quantitatively derived. The explicit expression for direction-finding (DF) error is derived via the first-order perturbation analysis, and then the theoretical formula for the mean square error (MSE) is given. Simulation results demonstrate the validation of the theoretical analysis and reveal that the FOC-RARE is more robust to the unexpected modeling errors than the SOS-RARE.

  1. Expert opinion on laparoscopic surgery for colorectal cancer parallels evidence from a cumulative meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guillaume Martel

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: This study sought to synthesize survival outcomes from trials of laparoscopic and open colorectal cancer surgery, and to determine whether expert acceptance of this technology in the literature has parallel cumulative survival evidence. STUDY DESIGN: A systematic review of randomized trials was conducted. The primary outcome was survival, and meta-analysis of time-to-event data was conducted. Expert opinion in the literature (published reviews, guidelines, and textbook chapters on the acceptability of laparoscopic colorectal cancer was graded using a 7-point scale. Pooled survival data were correlated in time with accumulating expert opinion scores. RESULTS: A total of 5,800 citations were screened. Of these, 39 publications pertaining to 23 individual trials were retained. As well, 414 reviews were included (28 guidelines, 30 textbook chapters, 20 systematic reviews, 336 narrative reviews. In total, 5,782 patients were randomized to laparoscopic (n = 3,031 and open (n = 2,751 colorectal surgery. Survival data were presented in 16 publications. Laparoscopic surgery was not inferior to open surgery in terms of overall survival (HR = 0.94, 95% CI 0.80, 1.09. Expert opinion in the literature pertaining to the oncologic acceptability of laparoscopic surgery for colon cancer correlated most closely with the publication of large RCTs in 2002-2004. Although increasingly accepted since 2006, laparoscopic surgery for rectal cancer remained controversial. CONCLUSIONS: Laparoscopic surgery for colon cancer is non-inferior to open surgery in terms of overall survival, and has been so since 2004. The majority expert opinion in the literature has considered these two techniques to be equivalent since 2002-2004. Laparoscopic surgery for rectal cancer has been increasingly accepted since 2006, but remains controversial. Knowledge translation efforts in this field appear to have paralleled the accumulation of clinical trial evidence.

  2. Comparison of competing risks models based on cumulative incidence function in analyzing time to cardiovascular diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dianatkhah, Minoo; Rahgozar, Mehdi; Talaei, Mohammad; Karimloua, Masoud; Sadeghi, Masoumeh; Oveisgharan, Shahram; Sarrafzadegan, Nizal

    2014-01-01

    Competing risks arise when the subject is exposed to more than one cause of failure. Data consists of the time that the subject failed and an indicator of which risk caused the subject to fail. With three approaches consisting of Fine and Gray, binomial, and pseudo-value, all of which are directly based on cumulative incidence function, cardiovascular disease data of the Isfahan Cohort Study were analyzed. Validity of proportionality assumption for these approaches is the basis for selecting appropriate models. Such as for the Fine and Gray model, establishing proportionality assumption is necessary. In the binomial approach, a parametric, non-parametric, or semi-parametric model was offered according to validity of assumption. However, pseudo-value approaches do not need to establish proportionality. Following fitting the models to data, slight differences in parameters and variances estimates were seen among models. This showed that semi-parametric multiplicative model and the two models based on pseudo-value approach could be used for fitting this kind of data. We would recommend considering the use of competing risk models instead of normal survival methods when subjects are exposed to more than one cause of failure.

  3. Constrained parametric model for simultaneous inference of two cumulative incidence functions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Haiwen; Cheng, Yu; Jeong, Jong-Hyeon

    2013-01-01

    We propose a parametric regression model for the cumulative incidence functions (CIFs) commonly used for competing risks data. The model adopts a modified logistic model as the baseline CIF and a generalized odds-rate model for covariate effects, and it explicitly takes into account the constraint that a subject with any given prognostic factors should eventually fail from one of the causes such that the asymptotes of the CIFs should add up to one. This constraint intrinsically holds in a nonparametric analysis without covariates, but is easily overlooked in a semiparametric or parametric regression setting. We hence model the CIF from the primary cause assuming the generalized odds-rate transformation and the modified logistic function as the baseline CIF. Under the additivity constraint, the covariate effects on the competing cause are modeled by a function of the asymptote of the baseline distribution and the covariate effects on the primary cause. The inference procedure is straightforward by using the standard maximum likelihood theory. We demonstrate desirable finite-sample performance of our model by simulation studies in comparison with existing methods. Its practical utility is illustrated in an analysis of a breast cancer dataset to assess the treatment effect of tamoxifen, adjusting for age and initial pathological tumor size, on breast cancer recurrence that is subject to dependent censoring by second primary cancers and deaths.

  4. Flexible parametric modelling of the cause-specific cumulative incidence function.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lambert, Paul C; Wilkes, Sally R; Crowther, Michael J

    2016-12-22

    Competing risks arise with time-to-event data when individuals are at risk of more than one type of event and the occurrence of one event precludes the occurrence of all other events. A useful measure with competing risks is the cause-specific cumulative incidence function (CIF), which gives the probability of experiencing a particular event as a function of follow-up time, accounting for the fact that some individuals may have a competing event. When modelling the cause-specific CIF, the most common model is a semi-parametric proportional subhazards model. In this paper, we propose the use of flexible parametric survival models to directly model the cause-specific CIF where the effect of follow-up time is modelled using restricted cubic splines. The models provide smooth estimates of the cause-specific CIF with the important advantage that the approach is easily extended to model time-dependent effects. The models can be fitted using standard survival analysis tools by a combination of data expansion and introducing time-dependent weights. Various link functions are available that allow modelling on different scales and have proportional subhazards, proportional odds and relative absolute risks as particular cases. We conduct a simulation study to evaluate how well the spline functions approximate subhazard functions with complex shapes. The methods are illustrated using data from the European Blood and Marrow Transplantation Registry showing excellent agreement between parametric estimates of the cause-specific CIF and those obtained from a semi-parametric model. We also fit models relaxing the proportional subhazards assumption using alternative link functions and/or including time-dependent effects. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  5. A semiparametric censoring bias model for estimating the cumulative risk of a false-positive screening test under dependent censoring.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hubbard, Rebecca A; Miglioretti, Diana L

    2013-03-01

    False-positive test results are among the most common harms of screening tests and may lead to more invasive and expensive diagnostic testing procedures. Estimating the cumulative risk of a false-positive screening test result after repeat screening rounds is, therefore, important for evaluating potential screening regimens. Existing estimators of the cumulative false-positive risk are limited by strong assumptions about censoring mechanisms and parametric assumptions about variation in risk across screening rounds. To address these limitations, we propose a semiparametric censoring bias model for cumulative false-positive risk that allows for dependent censoring without specifying a fixed functional form for variation in risk across screening rounds. Simulation studies demonstrated that the censoring bias model performs similarly to existing models under independent censoring and can largely eliminate bias under dependent censoring. We used the existing and newly proposed models to estimate the cumulative false-positive risk and variation in risk as a function of baseline age and family history of breast cancer after 10 years of annual screening mammography using data from the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium. Ignoring potential dependent censoring in this context leads to underestimation of the cumulative risk of false-positive results. Models that provide accurate estimates under dependent censoring are critical for providing appropriate information for evaluating screening tests.

  6. Estimating multi-factor cumulative watershed effects on fish populations with an individual-based model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bret C. Harvey; Steven F. Railsback

    2007-01-01

    While the concept of cumulative effects is prominent in legislation governing environmental management, the ability to estimate cumulative effects remains limited. One reason for this limitation is that important natural resources such as fish populations may exhibit complex responses to changes in environmental conditions, particularly to alteration of multiple...

  7. A Longitudinal Study of Reading Comprehension Achievement from Grades 3 to 10: Investigating Models of Stability, Cumulative Growth, and Compensation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwiatkowska-White, Bozena; Kirby, John R.; Lee, Elizabeth A.

    2016-01-01

    This longitudinal study of 78 Canadian English-speaking students examined the applicability of the stability, cumulative, and compensatory models in reading comprehension development. Archival government-mandated assessments of reading comprehension at Grades 3, 6, and 10, and the Canadian Test of Basic Skills measure of reading comprehension…

  8. When Two Isn't Better than One: Predictors of Early Sexual Activity in Adolescence Using a Cumulative Risk Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Price, Myeshia N.; Hyde, Janet Shibley

    2009-01-01

    This study explored factors that may be associated with early initiation of sexual activity among adolescents. Using the cumulative risk model, we hypothesized that as exposure to risk factors increases, so does the likelihood of early sexual debut. A sample of 273 (53% girls, 90% European American) adolescents was followed longitudinally from age…

  9. A cumulative risk factor model for early identification of academic difficulties in premature and low birth weight infants

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roberts, G.; Bellinger, D.; McCormick, Marie C.

    2007-01-01

    Objectives: Premature and low birth weight children have a high prevalence of academic difficulties. This study examines a model comprised of cumulative risk factors that allows early identification of these difficulties. Methods: This is a secondary analysis of data from a large cohort of premature

  10. Testing of a cumulative and aggregate exposure model using biomonitoring studies and dietary records for Italian vineyard spray operators.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kennedy, M.C.; Glass, C.R.; Fustinoni, S.; Moretto, A.; Mandic-Rajcevic, S.; Riso, P.; Turrini, A.; Voet, van der H.; Hetmanski, M.T.; Fussel, R.J.; Klaveren, van J.D.

    2015-01-01

    The need for improved tools to estimate the cumulative and aggregate exposure to compounds such as plant protection products (PPPs) is recognised in the EU Regulation 1107/2009. A new model has been developed to estimate the exposure within a population to single compounds or compounds within a Cumu

  11. A Longitudinal Study of Reading Comprehension Achievement from Grades 3 to 10: Investigating Models of Stability, Cumulative Growth, and Compensation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwiatkowska-White, Bozena; Kirby, John R.; Lee, Elizabeth A.

    2016-01-01

    This longitudinal study of 78 Canadian English-speaking students examined the applicability of the stability, cumulative, and compensatory models in reading comprehension development. Archival government-mandated assessments of reading comprehension at Grades 3, 6, and 10, and the Canadian Test of Basic Skills measure of reading comprehension…

  12. Linking turbine collision risks with population models to assess cumulative impacts of multiple wind farms on threatened birds

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smales, Ian; Muir, Stuart; Meredith, Charles; Baird, Robert

    2011-07-01

    Full text: Assessment of the effects on birds of wind turbine collisions has generally been focussed on the number of individuals that might be killed at a particular facility. However, this measure, of itself, may have little relevance to evaluating the potential or real effects on conservation status of threatened species. Determination of the overall effect any such mortality may have on the functioning of these populations will provide a better basis for decisions that have a strong foundation in ecology. For species with sufficient demographic information, we have developed and applied an approach combining collision risk modelling for all wind farms within the range of a threatened species with population modelling. This permits population-level evaluation of potential cumulative impacts of multiple wind farms. In Australia, regulatory authorities are increasingly interested in the cumulative risk to threatened species that may be posed by multiple wind energy facilities within a species. range. The approach outlined here has been applied in the pre-construction approval stage using collision risk modelling, and can be applied to operational facilities using data on actual mortalities. Cumulative modelling of risk posed by multiple wind farms requires different approaches for sedentary and migratory species. For sedentary species the cumulative effect will be the sum of the impact experienced by those parts of the population whose range intersects with wind farms. Cumulative impact is derived for migratory species by assessing the probability of birds surviving encounters with one wind farm after another on the migratory route and is thus the product of their survivorship rates for the relevant wind farms. The collision risk modelling used will be outlined along with the method in which it is integrated with a population model. Case studies for a crane (Brolga Grus rubicundus) and a parrot (orange- bellied parrot Neophema chrysogaster) species will be

  13. Evaluation of Inference Adequacy in Cumulative Logistic Regression Models: An Empirical Validation of ISWRidge Relationships

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Cheng-Wu CHEN; Hsien-Chueh Peter YANG; Chen-Yuan CHEN; Alex Kung-Hsiung CHANG; Tsung-Hao CHEN

    2008-01-01

    Internal solitary wave propagation over a submarine ridge results in energy dissipation, in which the hydrodynamic interaction between a wave and ridge affects marine environment. This study analyzes the effects of ridge height and potential energy during wave-ridge interaction with a binary and cumulative logistic regression model. In testing the Global Null Hypothesis, all values are p<0.001, with three statistical methods, such as Likelihood Ratio, Score, and Wald. While comparing with two kinds of models, tests values obtained by cumulative logistic regression models are better than those by binary logistic regression models. Although this study employed cumulative logistic regression model, three probability functions 1, 2 and 3, are utilized for investigating the weighted influence of factors on wave reflection. Deviance and Pearson tests are applied to check the goodness-of-fit of the proposed model. The analytical results demonstrated that both ridge height (X1) and potential energy (X2) significantly impact (p<0.0001) the amplitude-based reflected rate; the P-values for the deviance and Pearson are all >0.05 (0.2839, 0.3438, respectively). That is, the goodness-of-fit between ridge height (X1) and potential energy (X2) can further predict parameters under the scenario of the best parsimonious model.Investigation of 6 predictive powers (R2, Max-rescaled R2, Somers'D, Gamma, Tau-a, and c, respectively) indicate that these predictive estimates of the proposed model have better predictive ability than ridge height alone, and are very similar to the interaction of ridge height and potential energy. It can be concluded that the goodness-of-fit and prediction ability of the cumulative logistic regression model are better than that of the binary logistic regression model.

  14. Making the case for cumulative impacts assessment : modelling the potential impacts of climate change, harvesting, oil and gas, and fire

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yamasaki, S.H.; Duchesneau, R.; Doyon, F. [Inst. quebecois d' Amenagement de la Foret feuillue, Ripon, PQ (Canada); Russell, J.S. [Millar Western Forest Products Ltd., Whitecourt, AB (Canada); Gooding, T. [Forestry Corp., Edmonton, AB (Canada)

    2008-05-15

    Oil and gas activities and wildfires are altering the composition, age-class structure, and spatial configuration of Alberta's forests. Climate change may also be modifying forest dynamics which will lead to important changes in the future. This paper presented a landscape model designed to simulate the long-term cumulative effects of forestry, oil and gas activities, climate change, wildlife, and demographic change for the Whitecourt forest management area. Various landscape scenarios were presented for the forest, and key indicators for biodiversity and forest productivity were evaluated. Multiple disturbance agents were simulated in order to detect potential interactions among disturbance agents. Results of the study showed that climate and demographic changes will intensify the impacts of fires on timber supplies. It was concluded that cumulative impacts assessments and spatial and temporal stochastic modelling should be included in forest management practices. 34 refs., 2 tabs., 22 figs.

  15. Instrumental variables estimation of exposure effects on a time-to-event response using structural cumulative survival models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Martinussen, T.; Vansteelandt, S.; Tchetgen, E. J. Tchetgen;

    2016-01-01

    of complications due to censoring and survivorship bias. In this paper, we make a novel proposal under a class of structural cumulative survival models which parameterize time-varying effects of a point exposure directly on the scale of the survival function; these models are essentially equivalent with a semi......-parametric variant of the instrumental variables additive hazards model. We propose a class of recursive instrumental variable estimators for these exposure effects, and derive their large sample properties along with inferential tools. We examine the performance of the proposed method in simulation studies...

  16. Repeated mild lateral fluid percussion brain injury in the rat causes cumulative long-term behavioral impairments, neuroinflammation, and cortical loss in an animal model of repeated concussion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shultz, Sandy R; Bao, Feng; Omana, Vanessa; Chiu, Charlotte; Brown, Arthur; Cain, Donald Peter

    2012-01-20

    There is growing evidence that repeated brain concussion can result in cumulative and long-term behavioral symptoms, neuropathological changes, and neurodegeneration. Little is known about the factors and mechanisms that contribute to these effects. The current study addresses the need to investigate and better understand the effects of repeated concussion through the development of an animal model. Male Long-Evans rats received 1, 3, or 5 mild lateral fluid percussion injuries or sham injuries spaced 5 days apart. After the final injury, rats received either a short (24 h) or long (8 weeks) post-injury recovery period, followed by a detailed behavioral analysis consisting of tests for rodent anxiety-like behavior, cognition, social behavior, sensorimotor function, and depression-like behavior. Brains were examined immunohistochemically to assess neuroinflammation and cortical damage. Rats given 1, 3, or 5 mild percussion injuries displayed significant short-term cognitive impairments. Rats given repeated mild percussion injuries displayed significantly worse short- and long-term cognitive impairments. Rats given 5 mild percussion injuries also displayed increased anxiety- and depression-like behaviors. Neuropathological analysis revealed short-term neuroinflammation in 3-injury rats, and both short- and long-term neuroinflammation in 5-injury rats. There was also evidence that repeated injuries induced short- and long-term cortical damage. These cumulative and long-term changes are consistent with findings in human patients suffering repeated brain concussion, provide support for the use of repeated mild lateral fluid percussion injuries to study repeated concussion in the rat, and suggest that neuroinflammation may be important for understanding the cumulative and chronic effects of repeated concussion.

  17. Cumulative dietary exposure to a selected group of pesticides of the triazole group in different European countries according to the EFSA guidance on probabilistic modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boon, Polly E.; van Donkersgoed, Gerda; Christodoulou, Despo

    2015-01-01

    The practicality was examined of performing a cumulative dietary exposure assessment according to the requirements of the EFSA guidance on probabilistic modelling. For this the acute and chronic cumulative exposure to triazole pesticides was estimated using national food consumption and monitorin...

  18. Testing a cumulative and aggregate exposure model using biomonitoring studies and dietary records for Italian vineyard spray operators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kennedy, Marc C; Glass, C Richard; Fustinoni, Silvia; Moretto, Angelo; Mandic-Rajcevic, Stefan; Riso, Patrizia; Turrini, Aida; van der Voet, Hilko; Hetmanski, Michel T; Fussell, Richard J; van Klaveren, Jacob D

    2015-05-01

    The need for improved tools to estimate the cumulative and aggregate exposure to compounds such as plant protection products (PPPs) is recognised in the EU Regulation 1107/2009. A new model has been developed to estimate the exposure within a population to single compounds or compounds within a Cumulative Action Group, considering dietary and non-dietary sources and multiple exposure routes. To test the model a field study was carried out in Italy with operators applying tebuconazole fungicides, with measurements of dermal exposure collected. Whole urine samples were collected and analysed to provide values for the absorbed dose of tebuconazole, with duplicate diet samples collected and analysed as a measure of dietary exposures. The model provided predicted values of exposure for combined dietary and non-dietary routes of exposures which were compared to the measured absorbed dose values based on urinary analysis. The model outputs provided mean daily exposure values of 1.77 (± 1.96) µg a.s./kg BW which are comparable to measured mean values from the biomonitoring field study of 1.73 (± 1.31) µg a.s./kg BW. To supplement the limited measurement data available, comparisons against other models were also made and found to be comparable.

  19. The hairless guinea-pig as a model for treatment of cumulative irritation in humans

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, F; Hedegaard, K; Petersen, Thomas Kongsted

    2006-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The effect of six skin-care formulations (SCFs) on experimentally induced cumulative irritation was studied in hairless guinea-pigs (HLGPs) and in human volunteers (HVs). The formulations were a basic cream, a carbomer cream and four modifications of the carbomer cream, containing...... either 10% isopropyl palmitate (IPP cream), 10% glycerol (glycerol cream), 19.5% canola oil (canola oil cream) or 0.5% (-)-alpha-bisabolol (bisabolol cream). METHODS: In HLGP, irritant dermatitis was induced with 30 min daily exposure for 4 days to 0.5% sodium lauryl sulfate aq. (SLS). In HVs, irritant...... measured at baseline (day 0) in the middle and at the end of treatment. Treatments were applied twice daily. The basic cream and the IPP cream were excluded from testing in HLGP because they were known from previous studies to be irritant in HLGP, while all formulations were known to be equally and well...

  20. Measurement error correction for the cumulative average model in the survival analysis of nutritional data: application to Nurses' Health Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiu, Weiliang; Rosner, Bernard

    2010-01-01

    The use of the cumulative average model to investigate the association between disease incidence and repeated measurements of exposures in medical follow-up studies can be dated back to the 1960s (Kahn and Dawber, J Chron Dis 19:611-620, 1966). This model takes advantage of all prior data and thus should provide a statistically more powerful test of disease-exposure associations. Measurement error in covariates is common for medical follow-up studies. Many methods have been proposed to correct for measurement error. To the best of our knowledge, no methods have been proposed yet to correct for measurement error in the cumulative average model. In this article, we propose a regression calibration approach to correct relative risk estimates for measurement error. The approach is illustrated with data from the Nurses' Health Study relating incident breast cancer between 1980 and 2002 to time-dependent measures of calorie-adjusted saturated fat intake, controlling for total caloric intake, alcohol intake, and baseline age.

  1. An Integrated Modeling Framework Forecasting Ecosystem Exposure-- A Systems Approach to the Cumulative Impacts of Multiple Stressors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnston, J. M.

    2013-12-01

    Freshwater habitats provide fishable, swimmable and drinkable resources and are a nexus of geophysical and biological processes. These processes in turn influence the persistence and sustainability of populations, communities and ecosystems. Climate change and landuse change encompass numerous stressors of potential exposure, including the introduction of toxic contaminants, invasive species, and disease in addition to physical drivers such as temperature and hydrologic regime. A systems approach that includes the scientific and technologic basis of assessing the health of ecosystems is needed to effectively protect human health and the environment. The Integrated Environmental Modeling Framework 'iemWatersheds' has been developed as a consistent and coherent means of forecasting the cumulative impact of co-occurring stressors. The Framework consists of three facilitating technologies: Data for Environmental Modeling (D4EM) that automates the collection and standardization of input data; the Framework for Risk Assessment of Multimedia Environmental Systems (FRAMES) that manages the flow of information between linked models; and the Supercomputer for Model Uncertainty and Sensitivity Evaluation (SuperMUSE) that provides post-processing and analysis of model outputs, including uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. Five models are linked within the Framework to provide multimedia simulation capabilities for hydrology and water quality processes: the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) predicts surface water and sediment runoff and associated contaminants; the Watershed Mercury Model (WMM) predicts mercury runoff and loading to streams; the Water quality Analysis and Simulation Program (WASP) predicts water quality within the stream channel; the Habitat Suitability Index (HSI) model scores physicochemical habitat quality for individual fish species; and the Bioaccumulation and Aquatic System Simulator (BASS) predicts fish growth, population dynamics and bioaccumulation

  2. A geographic model to assess and limit cumulative ecological degradation from Marcellus Shale exploitation in New York, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, John B.; Robinson, George R.

    2012-01-01

    When natural resources are exploited, environmental costs and economic benefits are often asymmetric. An example is apparent in the environmental impacts from fossil fuel extraction by hydraulic fracturing. So far, most scrutiny has been focused on water quality in affected aquifers, with less attention paid to broader ecological impacts beyond individual drilling operations. Marcellus Shale methane exploitation in New York State, USA, has been delayed because of a regulatory moratorium, pending evaluation that has been directed primarily at localized impacts. We developed a GIS-based model, built on a hexagonal grid underlay nested within the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s EMAP system, to examine potential cumulative ecological impacts. In a two-step process, we characterized > 19,000 hexagons, each sized to approximate the footprint of one drilling site (2.57 km²), using ecological attributes; we then developed a method for apportioning resource access that includes assessments of cumulative ecological costs. Over one-quarter of the hexagons were excluded as off-limits on the basis of six criteria: slope suitability, regulated wetland cover, protected-land cover, length of high-quality streams, mapped road density, and open water cover. Three additional criteria were applied to assess the estimated conservation vulnerability of the remaining sites: density of grassland birds (North American Breeding Bird Survey), percent core forest (Coastal Change Analysis Program), and total density of all state-mapped streams; these were determined and used in combination to rank the 14,000 potentially accessible sites. In a second step, an iterative process was used to distribute potential site access among all towns (sub-county governments) within the Marcellus Shale Formation. At each iteration, one site was selected per town, either randomly or in rank order of increasing vulnerability. Results were computed as percent cumulative impact versus the number of

  3. A Geographic Model to Assess and Limit Cumulative Ecological Degradation from Marcellus Shale Exploitation in New York, USA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    George R. Robinson

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available When natural resources are exploited, environmental costs and economic benefits are often asymmetric. An example is apparent in the environmental impacts from fossil fuel extraction by hydraulic fracturing. So far, most scrutiny has been focused on water quality in affected aquifers, with less attention paid to broader ecological impacts beyond individual drilling operations. Marcellus Shale methane exploitation in New York State, USA, has been delayed because of a regulatory moratorium, pending evaluation that has been directed primarily at localized impacts. We developed a GIS-based model, built on a hexagonal grid underlay nested within the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s EMAP system, to examine potential cumulative ecological impacts. In a two-step process, we characterized > 19,000 hexagons, each sized to approximate the footprint of one drilling site (2.57 km², using ecological attributes; we then developed a method for apportioning resource access that includes assessments of cumulative ecological costs. Over one-quarter of the hexagons were excluded as off-limits on the basis of six criteria: slope suitability, regulated wetland cover, protected-land cover, length of high-quality streams, mapped road density, and open water cover. Three additional criteria were applied to assess the estimated conservation vulnerability of the remaining sites: density of grassland birds (North American Breeding Bird Survey, percent core forest (Coastal Change Analysis Program, and total density of all state-mapped streams; these were determined and used in combination to rank the 14,000 potentially accessible sites. In a second step, an iterative process was used to distribute potential site access among all towns (sub-county governments within the Marcellus Shale Formation. At each iteration, one site was selected per town, either randomly or in rank order of increasing vulnerability. Results were computed as percent cumulative impact versus

  4. Regression Modeling of Competing Risks Data Based on Pseudovalues of the Cumulative Incidence Function

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Klein, John P.; Andersen, Per Kragh

    2005-01-01

    Bone marrow transplantation; Generalized estimating equations; Jackknife statistics; Regression models......Bone marrow transplantation; Generalized estimating equations; Jackknife statistics; Regression models...

  5. Bayesian Evidence and Model Selection

    CERN Document Server

    Knuth, Kevin H; Malakar, Nabin K; Mubeen, Asim M; Placek, Ben

    2014-01-01

    In this paper we review the concept of the Bayesian evidence and its application to model selection. The theory is presented along with a discussion of analytic, approximate and numerical techniques. Application to several practical examples within the context of signal processing are discussed.

  6. Consistent and cumulative effects of syntactic experience in children's sentence production: Evidence for error-based implicit learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Branigan, Holly P; Messenger, Katherine

    2016-12-01

    Error-based implicit learning models (e.g., Chang, Dell, & Bock, 2006) propose that a single learning mechanism underlies immediate and long-term effects of experience on children's syntax. We test two key predictions of these models: That individual experiences of infrequent structures should yield both immediate and long-term facilitation, and that such learning should be consistent in individual speakers across time. Children (and adults) described transitive events in two picture-matching games, held a week apart. In both sessions, the experimenter's immediately preceding syntax (active vs. passive) dynamically influenced children's (and adults') syntactic choices in an individually consistent manner. Moreover, children showed long-term facilitation, through an increased likelihood to produce passives in Session 2, with speakers who were most likely to immediately repeat passives in Session 1 being most likely to produce passives in Session 2. Our results are consistent with an error-based syntactic learning mechanism that operates across the lifespan. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. Assessing cumulative impacts of forest development on the distribution of furbearers using expert-based habitat modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bridger, M C; Johnson, C J; Gillingham, M P

    2016-03-01

    Cumulative impacts of anthropogenic landscape change must be considered when managing and conserving wildlife habitat. Across the central-interior of British Columbia, Canada, industrial activities are altering the habitat of furbearer species. This region has witnessed unprecedented levels of anthropogenic landscape change following rapid development in a number of resource sectors, particularly forestry. Our objective was to create expert-based habitat models for three furbearer species: fisher (Pekania pennanti), Canada lynx (Lynx canadensis), and American marten (Martes americana) and quantify habitat change for those species. We recruited 10 biologist and 10 trapper experts and then used the analytical hierarchy process to elicit expert knowledge of habitat variables important to each species. We applied the models to reference landscapes (i.e., registered traplines) in two distinct study areas and then quantified the change in habitat availability from 1990 to 2013. There was strong agreement between expert groups in the choice of habitat variables and associated scores. Where anthropogenic impacts had increased considerably over the study period, the habitat models showed substantial declines in habitat availability for each focal species (78% decline in optimal fisher habitat, 83% decline in optimal lynx habitat, and 79% decline in optimal marten habitat). For those traplines with relatively little forest harvesting, the habitat models showed no substantial change in the availability of habitat over time. The results suggest that habitat for these three furbearer species declined significantly as a result of the cumulative impacts of forest harvesting. Results of this study illustrate the utility of expert knowledge for understanding large-scale patterns of habitat change over long time periods.

  8. Predicting Cumulative Incidence Probability by Direct Binomial Regression

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Scheike, Thomas H.; Zhang, Mei-Jie

    Binomial modelling; cumulative incidence probability; cause-specific hazards; subdistribution hazard......Binomial modelling; cumulative incidence probability; cause-specific hazards; subdistribution hazard...

  9. A new Cumulative Damage Model for Fatigue Life Prediction under Shot Peening Treatment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdul-Jabar H. Ali

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, fatigue damage accumulation were studied using many methods i.e.Corton-Dalon (CD,Corton-Dalon-Marsh(CDM, new non-linear model and experimental method. The prediction of fatigue lifetimes based on the two classical methods, Corton-Dalon (CDandCorton-Dalon-Marsh (CDM, are uneconomic and non-conservative respectively. However satisfactory predictions were obtained by applying the proposed non-linear model (present model for medium carbon steel compared with experimental work. Many shortcomings of the two classical methods are related to their inability to take into account the surface treatment effect as shot peening. It is clear that the new model shows that a much better and conservative prediction of fatigue life in comparison with CD and CDM methods. The prediction of the present model gave slightly below the experimental data while the CDM gave overestimate prediction and CD showed strongly underestimates the life of specimens.

  10. Complexity and demographic explanations of cumulative culture.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adrien Querbes

    Full Text Available Formal models have linked prehistoric and historical instances of technological change (e.g., the Upper Paleolithic transition, cultural loss in Holocene Tasmania, scientific progress since the late nineteenth century to demographic change. According to these models, cumulation of technological complexity is inhibited by decreasing--while favoured by increasing--population levels. Here we show that these findings are contingent on how complexity is defined: demography plays a much more limited role in sustaining cumulative culture in case formal models deploy Herbert Simon's definition of complexity rather than the particular definitions of complexity hitherto assumed. Given that currently available empirical evidence doesn't afford discriminating proper from improper definitions of complexity, our robustness analyses put into question the force of recent demographic explanations of particular episodes of cultural change.

  11. EPA's SHEDS-multimedia model: children's cumulative pyrethroid exposure estimates and evaluation against NHANES biomarker data

    Science.gov (United States)

    The U.S. EPA's SHEDS-Multimedia model was applied to enhance the understanding of children's exposures and doses to multiple pyrethroid pesticides, including major contributing chemicals and pathways. This paper presents combined dietary and residential exposure estimates and cum...

  12. Modeling larval malaria vector habitat locations using landscape features and cumulative precipitation measures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mc Cann, R.S.; Messina, J.P.; MacFarlane, D.W.; Bayoh, M.N.; Vulule, J.M.; Gimnig, J.E.; Walker, E.D.

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Predictive models of malaria vector larval habitat locations may provide a basis for understanding the spatial determinants of malaria transmission. METHODS: We used four landscape variables (topographic wetness index [TWI], soil type, land use-land cover, and distance to stream) and acc

  13. Using Marginal Structural Modeling to Estimate the Cumulative Impact of an Unconditional Tax Credit on Self-Rated Health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pega, Frank; Blakely, Tony; Glymour, M Maria; Carter, Kristie N; Kawachi, Ichiro

    2016-02-15

    In previous studies, researchers estimated short-term relationships between financial credits and health outcomes using conventional regression analyses, but they did not account for time-varying confounders affected by prior treatment (CAPTs) or the credits' cumulative impacts over time. In this study, we examined the association between total number of years of receiving New Zealand's Family Tax Credit (FTC) and self-rated health (SRH) in 6,900 working-age parents using 7 waves of New Zealand longitudinal data (2002-2009). We conducted conventional linear regression analyses, both unadjusted and adjusted for time-invariant and time-varying confounders measured at baseline, and fitted marginal structural models (MSMs) that more fully adjusted for confounders, including CAPTs. Of all participants, 5.1%-6.8% received the FTC for 1-3 years and 1.8%-3.6% for 4-7 years. In unadjusted and adjusted conventional regression analyses, each additional year of receiving the FTC was associated with 0.033 (95% confidence interval (CI): -0.047, -0.019) and 0.026 (95% CI: -0.041, -0.010) units worse SRH (on a 5-unit scale). In the MSMs, the average causal treatment effect also reflected a small decrease in SRH (unstabilized weights: β = -0.039 unit, 95% CI: -0.058, -0.020; stabilized weights: β = -0.031 unit, 95% CI: -0.050, -0.007). Cumulatively receiving the FTC marginally reduced SRH. Conventional regression analyses and MSMs produced similar estimates, suggesting little bias from CAPTs.

  14. Bivariate cumulative probit model for the comparison of neuronal encoding hypotheses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hillmann, Julia; Kneib, Thomas; Koepcke, Lena; Juárez Paz, León M; Kretzberg, Jutta

    2014-01-01

    Understanding the way stimulus properties are encoded in the nerve cell responses of sensory organs is one of the fundamental scientific questions in neurosciences. Different neuronal coding hypotheses can be compared by use of an inverse procedure called stimulus reconstruction. Here, based on different attributes of experimentally recorded neuronal responses, the values of certain stimulus properties are estimated by statistical classification methods. Comparison of stimulus reconstruction results then allows to draw conclusions about relative importance of covariate features. Since many stimulus properties have a natural order and can therefore be considered as ordinal, we introduce a bivariate ordinal probit model to obtain classifications for the combination of light intensity and velocity of a visual dot pattern based on different covariates extracted from recorded spike trains. For parameter estimation, we develop a Bayesian Gibbs sampler and incorporate penalized splines to model nonlinear effects. We compare the classification performance of different individual cell covariates and simple features of groups of neurons and find that the combination of at least two covariates increases the classification performance significantly. Furthermore, we obtain a non-linear effect for the first spike latency. The model is compared to a naïve Bayesian stimulus estimation method where it yields comparable misclassification rates for the given dataset. Hence, the bivariate ordinal probit model is shown to be a helpful tool for stimulus reconstruction particularly thanks to its flexibility with respect to the number of covariates as well as their scale and effect type. © 2013 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  15. Development of a "Hydrologic Equivalent Wetland" Concept for Modeling Cumulative Effects of Wetlands on Watershed Hydrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, X.; Liu, T.; Li, R.; Yang, X.; Duan, L.; Luo, Y.

    2012-12-01

    Wetlands are one of the most important watershed microtopographic features that affect, in combination rather than individually, hydrologic processes (e.g., routing) and the fate and transport of constituents (e.g., sediment and nutrients). Efforts to conserve existing wetlands and/or to restore lost wetlands require that watershed-level effects of wetlands on water quantity and water quality be quantified. Because monitoring approaches are usually cost or logistics prohibitive at watershed scale, distributed watershed models, such as the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), can be a best resort if wetlands can be appropriately represented in the models. However, the exact method that should be used to incorporate wetlands into hydrologic models is the subject of much disagreement in the literature. In addition, there is a serious lack of information about how to model wetland conservation-restoration effects using such kind of integrated modeling approach. The objectives of this study were to: 1) develop a "hydrologic equivalent wetland" (HEW) concept; and 2) demonstrate how to use the HEW concept in SWAT to assess effects of wetland restoration within the Broughton's Creek watershed located in southwestern Manitoba of Canada, and of wetland conservation within the upper portion of the Otter Tail River watershed located in northwestern Minnesota of the United States. The HEWs were defined in terms of six calibrated parameters: the fraction of the subbasin area that drains into wetlands (WET_FR), the volume of water stored in the wetlands when filled to their normal water level (WET_NVOL), the volume of water stored in the wetlands when filled to their maximum water level (WET_MXVOL), the longest tributary channel length in the subbasin (CH_L1), Manning's n value for the tributary channels (CH_N1), and Manning's n value for the main channel (CH_N2). The results indicated that the HEW concept allows the nonlinear functional relations between watershed processes

  16. Effects of volume corrections and resonance decays on cumulants of net-charge distributions in a Monte Carlo hadron resonance gas model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Hao-jie

    2017-02-01

    The effects of volume corrections and resonance decays (the resulting correlations between positive charges and negative charges) on cumulants of net-proton distributions and net-charge distributions are investigated by using a Monte Carlo hadron resonance gas (MCHRG) model. The required volume distributions are generated by a Monte Carlo Glauber (MC-Glb) model. Except the variances of net-charge distributions, the MCHRG model with more realistic simulations of volume corrections, resonance decays and acceptance cuts can reasonably explain the data of cumulants of net-proton distributions and net-charge distributions reported by the STAR collaboration. The MCHRG calculations indicate that both the volume corrections and resonance decays make the cumulant products of net-charge distributions deviate from the Skellam expectations: the deviations of Sσ and κσ2 are dominated by the former effect while the deviations of ω are dominated by the latter one.

  17. Managing the Cumulative Impacts of Land Uses in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin: A Modeling Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard, R. Schneider

    2003-07-01

    Full Text Available This case study from northeastern Alberta, Canada, demonstrates a fundamentally different approach to forest management in which stakeholders balance conservation and economic objectives by weighing current management options from the point of view of their long-term effects on the forest. ALCES®, a landscape-scale simulation model, is used to quantify the effects of the current regulatory framework and typical industrial practices on a suite of ecological and economic indicators over the next 100 yr. These simulations suggest that, if current practices continue, the combined activities of the energy and forestry industries in our 59,000 km2 study area will cause the density of edge of human origin to increase from 1.8 km/km 2 to a maximum of 8.0 km/km2. We also predict that older age classes of merchantable forest stands will be largely eliminated from the landscape, habitat availability for woodland caribou will decline from 43 to 6%, and there will be a progressive shortfall in the supply of softwood timber beginning in approximately 60 yr. Additional simulations involving a suite of "best practices" demonstrate that substantial improvements in ecological outcome measures could be achieved through alternative management scenarios while still maintaining a sustainable flow of economic benefits. We discuss the merits of our proposed approach to land use planning and apply it to the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin.

  18. Cumulative Intracranial Tumor Volume (CITV) Enhances the Prognostic Value of the Lung-Specific Graded Prognostic Assessment (GPA) Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marcus, Logan P; Marshall, Deborah; Hirshman, Brian R; McCutcheon, Brandon A; Gonda, David D; Koiso, Takao; Hattangadi-Gluth, Jona A; Carter, Bob S; Yamamoto, Masaaki; Chen, Clark C

    2016-08-01

    Management of patients afflicted with brain metastasis requires tailoring of therapeutic strategies based on survival expectations. Therefore, the development of prognostic indices is of critical importance in this patient population. To determine whether the cumulative intracranial tumor volume (CITV) of brain metastasis augments the prognostic value of the lung-specific Graded Prognostic Assessment (GPA) index. Patient data were derived from 365 lung cancer patients with brain metastasis who were consecutively treated with stereotactic radiosurgery at the University of California, San Diego/San Diego Gamma Knife Center. CITV was analyzed to determine the volume cutoff that maximized sensitivity and specificity for 1-year survival. Multivariate Cox proportional hazard modeling was performed, and overall survival was estimated by the Kaplan-Meier method risk stratifying with or without this optimal CITV. The prognostic value of these models (lung-specific GPA ± CITV) was quantitatively compared with the use of net reclassification improvement (>0) and integrated discrimination improvement. For the University of California, San Diego/San Diego Gamma Knife Center cohort, the CITV cutoff that had the greatest survival discrimination at 1 year was 4 cm. The addition of CITV to the lung-specific GPA indexes significantly improved the prognostic value of lung-specific GPA, with net reclassification improvement >0 of 0.430 (95% confidence interval, 0.228-0.629) and integrated discrimination improvement of 0.029 (95% confidence interval, 0.004-0.073). These findings were validated in an independent cohort of 1638 lung cancer patients with brain metastasis who were treated with stereotactic radiosurgery at the Katsuta Hospital Mito Gamma House in Japan. In independent cohorts, the addition of CITV to the lung-specific GPA index significantly improved the prognostic value of this index. AUC, area under the receiver-operating characteristic curveBM, brain metastasis

  19. DOSE-RESPONSE MODELING FOR THE ASSESSMENT OF CUMULATIVE RISK DUE TO EXPOSURE TO N-METHYL CARBAMATE PESTICIDES

    Science.gov (United States)

    The US EPAs N-Methyl Carbamate Cumulative Risk Assessment (NMCRA) assesses the effect on acetylcholine esterase (AChE) activity of exposure to 10 N-methyl carbamate (NMC) pesticides through dietary, drinking water, and residential exposures.

  20. The Soft Cumulative Constraint

    CERN Document Server

    Petit, Thierry

    2009-01-01

    This research report presents an extension of Cumulative of Choco constraint solver, which is useful to encode over-constrained cumulative problems. This new global constraint uses sweep and task interval violation-based algorithms.

  1. Cumulants of Net-Proton, Net-Kaon and Net-Charge Multiplicity Distributions in Au+Au Collisions at RHIC BES Energies from UrQMD Model

    CERN Document Server

    Xu, Ji; Liu, Feng; Luo, Xiaofeng

    2016-01-01

    Fluctuations of conserved quantities are sensitive observables to probe the signature of QCD phase transition and critical point in heavy-ion collisions. With the UrQMD model, we have studied the centrality and energy dependence of various order cumulants and cumulant ratios (up to fourth order) of net-proton,net-charge and net-kaon multiplicity distributions in Au+Au collisions at $\\sqrt{s_{NN}}$= 7.7, 11.5, 19.6, 27, 39, 62.4, 200 GeV. The model results show that the production mechanism of the particles and anti-particles have significant impacts on the cumulants of net-particles multiplicity distributions and show strong energy dependence. We also made comparisons between model calculations and experimental data measured in the first phase of the beam energy scan (BES) program by the STAR experiment at RHIC. The comparisons indicate that the baryon conservation effect strongly suppress the cumulants of net-proton distributions at low energies and the non-monotonic energy dependence for the net-proton {\\KV...

  2. MTHFR gene A1298C polymorphisms are associated with breast cancer risk among Chinese population: evidence based on an updated cumulative meta-analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yadong; Yang, Haiyan; Duan, Guangcai

    2015-01-01

    Objectives: Published studies on the association between methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase (MTHFR) gene A1298C polymorphisms and breast cancer risk among Chinese population have yielded conflicting results. The purpose of this study was to clarify the association between MTHFR gene A1298C polymorphisms and breast cancer risk among Chinese population. Methods: Systematic searches were performed through the database of Medline/PubMed, Science Direct, Elsevier, CNKI and Wanfang Medical Online. Results: Overall, a significantly increased risk of breast cancer was observed among the subjects carrying MTHFR gene A1298C AC+CC genotype (odds ratio [OR]=1.05 with 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.01-1.10) as compared to those carrying AA genotype among total Chinese population. We did not observe any significant association between MTHFR gene A1298C polymorphisms and the risk of breast cancer under the additional genetic models of AC vs. AA, CC vs. AA and C-allele vs. A-allele (OR=1.00 with 95% CI: 0.97-1.02, OR=1.01 with 95% CI: 1.00-1.02 and OR=1.00 with 95% CI: 0.99-1.02, respectively). The cumulative meta-analysis showed similar results. In subgroup analysis, we observed subjects carrying AC+CC genotype had an increased breast cancer risk compared with those carrying AA genotype among the studies of sample size less than 1000. We did not observe any significant association between MTHFR gene A1298C polymorphisms and breast cancer risk in additional subgroup analyses. Conclusions: Our results suggest that MTHFR gene A1298C AC+CC genotype may be a risk factor for the development of breast cancer among Chinese population. Well-designed studies with a large sample size are needed to further confirm our findings. PMID:26884927

  3. [Reconstruction of urban land space based on minimum cumulative resistance model: a case study of Xintang Town, Guangzhou City].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhong, Shi-Yu; Wu, Qing; Li, Yu; Cheng, Jin-Ping

    2012-11-01

    Based on the source-sink landscape theory and the principles of ecosystem services, the minimum cumulative resistance (MCR) model was modified, where the urban center construction land was taken as the expansion source, and the contribution rate of ecological land ecosystem services value was considered as the resistance coefficient. With the modified MCR, the urban spatial expansion process of Xintang Town, Guangzhou City was successfully simulated, and, based on the protection of ecological security pattern, the optimum path for reconstructing urban land space was put forward. The simulated urban spatial expansion short path in 1988-2008 was in accordance with the real situation. By the modified MCR, the urban space was divided into four zones of high, higher, medium, and low resistance, with the area of 80.84, 78.90, 24.26, and 61.88 km2, respectively. The expansion path of the urban space was along the route from low to medium and then to high resistance zones successively. The land suitable for eco-protection and construction had an area of 159.74 km2 and 86.14 km2, while the ecological conflict area (17.37 km2) was mainly located in higher and high resistance zones, being 10.38 and 6.99 km2, respectively. The modified MCR could not only effectively reflect the distribution area of urban land use and the conflict relationship between urban construction and ecological protection, but also reasonably judge the best developmental short path for urban spatial expansion.

  4. Using Physiologically-Based Pharmacokinetic Models to Incorporate Chemical and Non-Chemical Stressors into Cumulative Risk Assessment: A Case Study of Pesticide Exposures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jonathan I. Levy

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Cumulative risk assessment has been proposed as an approach to evaluate the health risks associated with simultaneous exposure to multiple chemical and non-chemical stressors. Physiologically based pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PBPK/PD models can allow for the inclusion and evaluation of multiple stressors, including non-chemical stressors, but studies have not leveraged PBPK/PD models to jointly consider these disparate exposures in a cumulative risk context. In this study, we focused on exposures to organophosphate (OP pesticides for children in urban low-income environments, where these children would be simultaneously exposed to other pesticides (including pyrethroids and non-chemical stressors that may modify the effects of these exposures (including diet. We developed a methodological framework to evaluate chemical and non-chemical stressor impacts on OPs, utilizing an existing PBPK/PD model for chlorpyrifos. We evaluated population-specific stressors that would influence OP doses or acetylcholinesterase (AChE inhibition, the relevant PD outcome. We incorporated the impact of simultaneous exposure to pyrethroids and dietary factors on OP dose through the compartments of metabolism and PD outcome within the PBPK model, and simulated combinations of stressors across multiple exposure ranges and potential body weights. Our analyses demonstrated that both chemical and non-chemical stressors can influence the health implications of OP exposures, with up to 5-fold variability in AChE inhibition across combinations of stressor values for a given OP dose. We demonstrate an approach for modeling OP risks in the presence of other population-specific environmental stressors, providing insight about co-exposures and variability factors that most impact OP health risks and contribute to children’s cumulative health risk from pesticides. More generally, this framework can be used to inform cumulative risk assessment for any compound impacted by

  5. Modeling cumulative effects in life cycle assessment: the case of fertilizer in wheat production contributing to the global warming potential.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laratte, Bertrand; Guillaume, Bertrand; Kim, Junbeum; Birregah, Babiga

    2014-05-15

    This paper aims at presenting a dynamic indicator for life cycle assessment (LCA) measuring cumulative impacts over time of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from fertilizers used for wheat cultivation and production. Our approach offers a dynamic indicator of global warming potential (GWP), one of the most used indicator of environmental impacts (e.g. in the Kyoto Protocol). For a case study, the wheat production in France was selected and considered by using data from official sources about fertilizer consumption and production of wheat. We propose to assess GWP environmental impact based on LCA method. The system boundary is limited to the fertilizer production for 1 ton of wheat produced (functional unit) from 1910 to 2010. As applied to wheat production in France, traditional LCA shows a maximum GWP impact of 500 kg CO2-eq for 1 ton of wheat production, whereas the GWP impact of wheat production over time with our approach to dynamic LCA and its cumulative effects increases to 18,000 kg CO2-eq for 1 ton of wheat production. In this paper, only one substance and one impact assessment indicator are presented. However, the methodology can be generalized and improved by using different substances and indicators.

  6. The Monitor Model: More Evidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ciske, Mary Desjarlais

    1983-01-01

    The use of prepositions, past tense verb forms, and subject-verb agreement in the English of a Korean college student of English for foreign students is analyzed in the context of Krashen's Monitor Model theory of language acquisition. The student was interviewed, asked to give a free writing sample, asked to read his own writing, and asked to…

  7. A Missing Link in the Evolution of the Cumulative Recorder

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asano, Toshio; Lattal, Kennon A.

    2012-01-01

    A recently recovered cumulative recorder provides a missing link in the evolution of the cumulative recorder from a modified kymograph to a reliably operating, scientifically and commercially successful instrument. The recorder, the only physical evidence of such an early precommercial cumulative recorder yet found, was sent to Keio University in…

  8. Modeling Forensic Evidence Systems Using Design Science

    OpenAIRE

    Armstrong, Colin; Armstrong, Helen

    2010-01-01

    International audience; This paper presents an overview of the application of design science research to the tactical management of forensic evidence processing. The opening discussion addresses the application of design science techniques to specific socio-technical information systems research in regard to processing forensic evidence. The discussion then presents the current problems faced by those dealing with evidence and a conceptual meta-model for a unified approach to forensic evidenc...

  9. Subduction of shallowly formed arc cumulates: Evidence from clinopyroxene compositions of garnet peridotites in the Rio San Juan Complex, northern Dominican Republic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hattori, K.; Tubrett, M.; Saumur, B.-M.; Guillot, S.

    2009-04-01

    Garnet peridotites are very rare in oceanic subduction complexes, with only two reported occurrences. One is in the Sambagawa metamorphic belt in Shikoku, Japan, and the other example is in the southern part of the Rio Juan Complex, northern Dominican Republic. In both locations, garnet peridotite occurs in close association with eclogites in high metamorphic grade of the terranes. The Rio Juan Complex represents rocks formed during the southwestern subduction of the Proto-Caribbean oceanic plate below the Carribean Plate during late Cretaceous to early Eocene. Garnet peridotites (clinopyroxene[Cpx]-bearing dunite, wehrlite, olivine clinopyroxenite) occur as large (garnet formation under high pressures. The geochemical data suggest that Cpx-rich cumulates formed at a relatively shallow level in the mantle wedge, and subsequently drug towards the subduction plane by mantle flow, followed by metamorphism that formed garnet in the subduction channel

  10. A model for developing job rotation schedules that eliminate sequential high workloads and minimize between-worker variability in cumulative daily workloads: Application to automotive assembly lines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoon, Sang-Young; Ko, Jeonghan; Jung, Myung-Chul

    2016-07-01

    The aim of study is to suggest a job rotation schedule by developing a mathematical model in order to reduce cumulative workload from the successive use of the same body region. Workload assessment using rapid entire body assessment (REBA) was performed for the model in three automotive assembly lines of chassis, trim, and finishing to identify which body part exposed to relatively high workloads at workstations. The workloads were incorporated to the model to develop a job rotation schedule. The proposed schedules prevent the exposure to high workloads successively on the same body region and minimized between-worker variance in cumulative daily workload. Whereas some of workers were successively assigned to high workload workstation under no job rotation and serial job rotation. This model would help to reduce the potential for work-related musculoskeletal disorders (WMSDs) without additional cost for engineering work, although it may need more computational time and relative complex job rotation sequences. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd and The Ergonomics Society. All rights reserved.

  11. C -IBI: Targeting cumulative coordination within an iterative protocol to derive coarse-grained models of (multi-component) complex fluids

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Oliveira, Tiago E.; Netz, Paulo A.; Kremer, Kurt; Junghans, Christoph; Mukherji, Debashish

    2016-05-01

    We present a coarse-graining strategy that we test for aqueous mixtures. The method uses pair-wise cumulative coordination as a target function within an iterative Boltzmann inversion (IBI) like protocol. We name this method coordination iterative Boltzmann inversion ( C -IBI). While the underlying coarse-grained model is still structure based and, thus, preserves pair-wise solution structure, our method also reproduces solvation thermodynamics of binary and/or ternary mixtures. Additionally, we observe much faster convergence within C -IBI compared to IBI. To validate the robustness, we apply C -IBI to study test cases of solvation thermodynamics of aqueous urea and a triglycine solvation in aqueous urea.

  12. The cumulative effect of assisted reproduction procedures on placental development and epigenetic perturbations in a mouse model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Waal, Eric; Vrooman, Lisa A; Fischer, Erin; Ord, Teri; Mainigi, Monica A; Coutifaris, Christos; Schultz, Richard M; Bartolomei, Marisa S

    2015-12-15

    Assisted reproductive technologies (ART) are associated with several complications including low birth weight, abnormal placentation and increased risk for rare imprinting disorders. Indeed, experimental studies demonstrate ART procedures independent of existing infertility induce epigenetic perturbations in the embryo and extraembryonic tissues. To test the hypothesis that these epigenetic perturbations persist and result in adverse outcomes at term, we assessed placental morphology and methylation profiles in E18.5 mouse concepti generated by in vitro fertilization (IVF) in two different genetic backgrounds. We also examined embryo transfer (ET) and superovulation procedures to ascertain if they contribute to developmental and epigenetic effects. Increased placental weight and reduced fetal-to-placental weight ratio were observed in all ART groups when compared with naturally conceived controls, demonstrating that non-surgical embryo transfer alone can impact placental development. Furthermore, superovulation further induced overgrowth of the placental junctional zone. Embryo transfer and superovulation defects were limited to these morphological changes, as we did not observe any differences in epigenetic profiles. IVF placentae, however, displayed hypomethylation of imprinting control regions of select imprinted genes and a global reduction in DNA methylation levels. Although we did not detect significant differences in DNA methylation in fetal brain or liver samples, rare IVF concepti displayed very low methylation and abnormal gene expression from the normally repressed allele. Our findings suggest that individual ART procedures cumulatively increase placental morphological abnormalities and epigenetic perturbations, potentially causing adverse neonatal and long-term health outcomes in offspring.

  13. Semantic Modelling of Digital Forensic Evidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kahvedžić, Damir; Kechadi, Tahar

    The reporting of digital investigation results are traditionally carried out in prose and in a large investigation may require successive communication of findings between different parties. Popular forensic suites aid in the reporting process by storing provenance and positional data but do not automatically encode why the evidence is considered important. In this paper we introduce an evidence management methodology to encode the semantic information of evidence. A structured vocabulary of terms, ontology, is used to model the results in a logical and predefined manner. The descriptions are application independent and automatically organised. The encoded descriptions aim to help the investigation in the task of report writing and evidence communication and can be used in addition to existing evidence management techniques.

  14. Modelling the changing cumulative vulnerability to climate-related hazards for river basin management using a GIS-based multicriteria decision approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hung, Hung-Chih; Wu, Ju-Yu; Hung, Chih-Hsuan

    2017-04-01

    1. Background Asia-Pacific region is one of the most vulnerable areas of the world to climate-related hazards and extremes due to rapid urbanization and over-development in hazard-prone areas. It is thus increasingly recognized that the management of land use and reduction of hazard risk are inextricably linked. This is especially critical from the perspective of integrated river basin management. A range of studies has targeted existing vulnerability assessments. However, limited attention has been paid to the cumulative effects of multiple vulnerable factors and their dynamics faced by local communities. This study proposes a novel methodology to access the changing cumulative vulnerability to climate-related hazards, and to examine the relationship between the attraction factors relevant to the general process of urbanization and vulnerability variability with a focus on a river basin management unit. 2. Methods and data The methods applied in this study include three steps. First, using Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) approach, a Cumulative Vulnerability Assessment Framework (CVAF) is built with a goal to characterize and compare the vulnerability to climate-related hazards within river basin regions based on a composition of multiple indicators. We organize these indicator metrics into three categories: (1) hazard exposure; (2) socioeconomic sensitivity, and (3) adaptive capacity. Second, the CVAF is applied by combining a geographical information system (GIS)-based spatial statistics technique with a multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) to assess and map the changing cumulative vulnerability, comparing conditions in 1996 and 2006 in Danshui River Basin, Taiwan. Third, to examine the affecting factors of vulnerability changing, we develop a Vulnerability Changing Model (VCM) using four attraction factors to reflect how the process of urban developments leads to vulnerability changing. The factors are transport networks, land uses

  15. Cumulant expansions for atmospheric flows

    CERN Document Server

    Ait-Chaalal, Farid; Meyer, Bettina; Marston, J B

    2015-01-01

    The equations governing atmospheric flows are nonlinear, and consequently the hierarchy of cumulant equations is not closed. But because atmospheric flows are inhomogeneous and anisotropic, the nonlinearity may manifests itself only weakly through interactions of mean fields with disturbances such as thermals or eddies. In such situations, truncations of the hierarchy of cumulant equations hold promise as a closure strategy. We review how truncations at second order can be used to model and elucidate the dynamics of turbulent atmospheric flows. Two examples are considered. First, we study the growth of a dry convective boundary layer, which is heated from below, leading to turbulent upward energy transport and growth of the boundary layer. We demonstrate that a quasilinear truncation of the equations of motion, in which interactions of disturbances among each other are neglected but interactions with mean fields are taken into account, can successfully capture the growth of the convective boundary layer. Seco...

  16. Improving the prognostic value of disease specific Graded Prognostic Assessment (ds-GPA) model for renal cell carcinoma by incorporation of Cumulative Intracranial Tumor Volume (CITV).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ali, Mir Amaan; Hirshman, Brian R; Wilson, Bayard; Schupper, Alexander J; Joshi, Rushikesh; Proudfoot, James A; Goetsch, Steven J; Alksne, John F; Ott, Kenneth; Aiyama, Hitoshi; Nagano, Osamu; Carter, Bob S; Chiang, Veronica; Serizawa, Toru; Yamamoto, Masaaki; Chen, Clark C

    2017-07-25

    We tested the prognostic value of cumulative intracranial tumor volume (CITV) in the context of ds-GPA model for renal cell carcinoma (RCC) patients with brain metastasis (BM) treated with stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS). Patient and tumor characteristics were collected from RCC cohorts with newly BM who underwent SRS. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression model was used to test the prognostic value of CITV, Karnofsky Performance Score (KPS), and the number of BM. Net reclassification improvement (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) were used to assess whether CITV improved the prognostic utility of RCC ds-GPA. In univariable logistic regression models, CITV, KPS, and the number of BM independently associated with RCC patient survival. In a multivariable Cox proportional hazard model, the association between CITV and survival remained robust after controlling for KPS and the number of BM (P=.042). The incorporation of the cumulative intracranial tumor volume (CITV) into the RCC ds-GPA model (consisting of KPS and number of BM) improved prognostic accuracy with NRI>0 of 0.3156 (95% CI: 0.0883-0.5428, P=.0065) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) of 0.0151 (95% CI: 0.0036-0.0277, P=.0183). These findings were validated in an independent cohort of 107 SRS-treated RCC BM patients. CITV is an important prognostic variable in SRS-treated RCC patients with BM. The prognostic value of the ds-GPA scale for RCC brain metastasis was enhanced by the incorporation of CITV. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Introducing AORN's new model for evidence rating.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spruce, Lisa; Van Wicklin, Sharon A; Hicks, Rodney W; Conner, Ramona; Dunn, Debra

    2014-02-01

    Nurses today are expected to implement evidence-based practices in the perioperative setting to assess and implement practice changes. All evidence-based practice begins with a question, a practice problem to address, or a needed change that is identified. To assess the question, a literature search is performed and relevant literature is identified and appraised. The types of evidence used to inform practice can be scientific research (eg, randomized controlled trials, systematic reviews) or nonresearch evidence (eg, regulatory and accrediting agency requirements, professional association practice standards and guidelines, quality improvement project reports). The AORN recommended practices are a synthesis of related knowledge on a given topic, and the authorship process begins with a systematic review of the literature conducted in collaboration with a medical librarian. At least two appraisers independently evaluate the applicable literature for quality and strength by using the AORN Research Appraisal Tool and AORN Non-Research Appraisal Tool. To collectively appraise the evidence supporting particular practice recommendations, the AORN recommended practices authors have implemented a new evidence rating model that is appropriate for research and nonresearch literature and that is relevant to the perioperative setting.

  18. C-IBI: Targeting cumulative coordination within an iterative protocol to derive coarse-grained models of (multi-component) complex fluids.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Oliveira, Tiago E; Netz, Paulo A; Kremer, Kurt; Junghans, Christoph; Mukherji, Debashish

    2016-05-01

    We present a coarse-graining strategy that we test for aqueous mixtures. The method uses pair-wise cumulative coordination as a target function within an iterative Boltzmann inversion (IBI) like protocol. We name this method coordination iterative Boltzmann inversion (C-IBI). While the underlying coarse-grained model is still structure based and, thus, preserves pair-wise solution structure, our method also reproduces solvation thermodynamics of binary and/or ternary mixtures. Additionally, we observe much faster convergence within C-IBI compared to IBI. To validate the robustness, we apply C-IBI to study test cases of solvation thermodynamics of aqueous urea and a triglycine solvation in aqueous urea.

  19. A Resource Cost Aware Cumulative

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simonis, Helmut; Hadzic, Tarik

    We motivate and introduce an extension of the well-known cumulative constraint which deals with time and volume dependent cost of resources. Our research is primarily interested in scheduling problems under time and volume variable electricity costs, but the constraint equally applies to manpower scheduling when hourly rates differ over time and/or extra personnel incur higher hourly rates. We present a number of possible lower bounds on the cost, including a min-cost flow, different LP and MIP models, as well as greedy algorithms, and provide a theoretical and experimental comparison of the different methods.

  20. Physics-Based Stress Corrosion Cracking Component Reliability Model cast in an R7-Compatible Cumulative Damage Framework

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Unwin, Stephen D.; Lowry, Peter P.; Layton, Robert F.; Toloczko, Mychailo B.; Johnson, Kenneth I.; Sanborn, Scott E.

    2011-07-01

    This is a working report drafted under the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization pathway of the Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program, describing statistical models of passives component reliabilities.

  1. A paradox of cumulative culture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kobayashi, Yutaka; Wakano, Joe Yuichiro; Ohtsuki, Hisashi

    2015-08-21

    Culture can grow cumulatively if socially learnt behaviors are improved by individual learning before being passed on to the next generation. Previous authors showed that this kind of learning strategy is unlikely to be evolutionarily stable in the presence of a trade-off between learning and reproduction. This is because culture is a public good that is freely exploited by any member of the population in their model (cultural social dilemma). In this paper, we investigate the effect of vertical transmission (transmission from parents to offspring), which decreases the publicness of culture, on the evolution of cumulative culture in both infinite and finite population models. In the infinite population model, we confirm that culture accumulates largely as long as transmission is purely vertical. It turns out, however, that introduction of even slight oblique transmission drastically reduces the equilibrium level of culture. Even more surprisingly, if the population size is finite, culture hardly accumulates even under purely vertical transmission. This occurs because stochastic extinction due to random genetic drift prevents a learning strategy from accumulating enough culture. Overall, our theoretical results suggest that introducing vertical transmission alone does not really help solve the cultural social dilemma problem. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Cumulative Timers for Microprocessors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Battle, John O.

    2007-01-01

    It has been proposed to equip future microprocessors with electronic cumulative timers, for essentially the same reasons for which land vehicles are equipped with odometers (total-distance-traveled meters) and aircraft are equipped with Hobbs meters (total-engine-operating time meters). Heretofore, there has been no way to determine the amount of use to which a microprocessor (or a product containing a microprocessor) has been subjected. The proposed timers would count all microprocessor clock cycles and could only be read by means of microprocessor instructions but, like odometers and Hobbs meters, could never be reset to zero without physically damaging the chip.

  3. Cumulative Vehicle Routing Problems

    OpenAIRE

    Kara, &#;mdat; Kara, Bahar Yeti&#;; Yeti&#;, M. Kadri

    2008-01-01

    This paper proposes a new objective function and corresponding formulations for the vehicle routing problem. The new cost function defined as the product of the distance of the arc and the flow on that arc. We call a vehicle routing problem with this new objective function as the Cumulative Vehicle Routing Problem (CumVRP). Integer programming formulations with O(n2) binary variables and O(n2) constraints are developed for both collection and delivery cases. We show that the CumVRP is a gener...

  4. Using simulation models to investigate the cumulative effects of sowing rate, sowing date and cultivar choice on weed competition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrew, Izzadora K S; Storkey, Jonathan

    2017-05-01

    With the increasing pressure on crop production from the evolution of herbicide resistance, farmers are increasingly adopting Integrated Weed Management (IWM) strategies to augment their weed control. These include measures to increase the competitiveness of the crop canopy such as increased sowing rate and the use of more competitive cultivars. While there are data on the relative impact of these non-chemical weed control methods assessed in isolation, there is uncertainty about their combined contribution, which may be hindering their adoption. In this article, the INTERCOM simulation model of crop/weed competition was used to examine the combined impact of crop density, sowing date and cultivar choice on the outcomes of competition between wheat (Triticum aestivum) and Alopecurus myosuroides. Alopecurus myosuroides is a problematic weed of cereal crops in North-Western Europe and the primary target for IWM in the UK because it has evolved resistance to a range of herbicides. The model was parameterised for two cultivars with contrasting competitive ability, and simulations run across 10 years at different crop densities and two sowing dates. The results suggest that sowing date, sowing density and cultivar choice largely work in a complementary fashion, allowing enhanced competitive ability against weeds when used in combination. However, the relative benefit of choosing a more competitive cultivar decreases at later sowing dates and higher crop densities. Modeling approaches could be further employed to examine the effectiveness of IWM, reducing the need for more expensive and cumbersome long-term in situ experimentation.

  5. 基于累积前景理论的拥挤阈值计算模型%Calculation Model of Congestion Threshold Based on Cumulative Prospect Theory

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    冯川; 戢晓峰; 刘敏

    2014-01-01

    信息诱导是缓解交通拥挤的有效途径,为了描述道路拥挤程度对出行者路径选择决策的影响机理,基于累积前景理论分析了出行者的出行决策过程,分析了出行者拥挤认知模式以及不同出行方式的拥挤信息需求。解析了拥挤阈值的概念,将行程时间作为累积前景理论决策指标建立了拥挤阈值的计算模型,以1个简单路网进行算例分析,模拟驾驶员的拥挤认知及出行活动决策。算例结果揭示了拥挤阈值对路径选择决策行为的影响,同时验证了拥挤阈值是出行者在决策过程中的决策变化分界点。出行时间在拥挤阈值内出行者不改变出行路径;出行时间超过拥挤阈值,出行者将改变出行路径。%Releasing travel information to guide travelers'travel choice is an effective way to relieve traffic conges-tion .In order to describe the influence mechanism between road congestion extent and travelers'route choice decisions , the cumulative prospect theory is used to model travelers'decision-making process ,and the travelers'different congestion cognitive model s and congestion information demand are analyzed .The concept of road network congestion threshold is analyzed ,and the calculation model of road network congestion threshold is constructed based on Cumulative Prospect Theory (CPT) with travel time as decision index .In the numerical example part ,travelers congestion cognition and travel decisions are modeled with a simple road network .The result of numerical example reveals congestion threshold's influ-ence on route choice decisions ,and verifies that the congestion threshold is the cut-off point of decision change in travelers'decision-making process .Travelers will not change route when travel time is within congestion threshold ;when travel time exceeds the congestion threshold ,traveler will choose another route to travel .

  6. Magma influence on propagation of normal faults: Evidence from cumulative slip profiles along Dabbahu-Manda-Hararo rift segment (Afar, Ethiopia)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dumont, Stéphanie; Klinger, Yann; Socquet, Anne; Doubre, Cécile; Jacques, Eric

    2017-02-01

    Measuring displacement-length profiles along normal faults provides crucial information on fault growth processes. Here, based on satellite imagery and topography we analyze 357 normal faults distributed along the active rift of Dabbahu-Manda-Hararo (DMH), Afar, which offers a unique opportunity to investigate the influence of magmatism on fault growth processes. Our measurements reveal a large variety of slip profiles that are not consistent with elastic deformation. Their analysis contributes towards a better understanding of the lateral propagation of faults, especially when nucleation points and existence of barriers are included. Using the fault growth model of Manighetti et al. (2001), we determine the preferred direction of lateral propagation for each fault. Our results suggest that lateral propagation of faults is easier away from areas where magma has been stored for long time at crustal depth, and has thus modified the thermo-mechanical properties of the host-rock. However, these areas correspond also to areas where the initiation of fault growth appears as easiest along the rift. In combining these results with the analysis of rift width and the position of magma reservoirs along DMH rift, we show that fault growth keeps track of the magma presence and/or movement in the crust.

  7. Cumulative cultural evolution: the role of teaching.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castro, Laureano; Toro, Miguel A

    2014-04-21

    In humans, cultural transmission occurs usually by cumulative inheritance, generating complex adaptive behavioral features. Cumulative culture requires key psychological processes (fundamentally imitation and teaching) that are absent or impoverished in non-human primates. In this paper we analyze the role that teaching has played in human cumulative cultural evolution. We assume that a system of cumulative culture generates increasingly adaptive behaviors, that are also more complex and difficult to imitate. Our thesis is that, as cultural traits become more complex, cumulative cultural transmission requires teaching to ensure accurate transmission from one generation to the next. In an increasingly complex cultural environment, we consider that individuals commit errors in imitation. We develop a model of cumulative cultural evolution in a changing environment and show that these errors hamper the process of cultural accumulation. We also show that a system of teaching between parents and offspring that increases the fidelity of imitation unblocks the accumulation and becomes adaptive whenever the gain in fitness compensates the cost of teaching.

  8. Dark energy observational evidence and theoretical models

    CERN Document Server

    Novosyadlyj, B; Shtanov, Yu; Zhuk, A

    2013-01-01

    The book elucidates the current state of the dark energy problem and presents the results of the authors, who work in this area. It describes the observational evidence for the existence of dark energy, the methods and results of constraining of its parameters, modeling of dark energy by scalar fields, the space-times with extra spatial dimensions, especially Kaluza---Klein models, the braneworld models with a single extra dimension as well as the problems of positive definition of gravitational energy in General Relativity, energy conditions and consequences of their violation in the presence of dark energy. This monograph is intended for science professionals, educators and graduate students, specializing in general relativity, cosmology, field theory and particle physics.

  9. Cumulative environmental effects. Summary

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2012-07-01

    This report presents a compilation of knowledge about the state of the environment and human activity in the Norwegian part of the North Sea and Skagerrak. The report gives an overview of pressures and impacts on the environment from normal activity and in the event of accidents. This is used to assess the cumulative environmental effects, which factors have most impact and where the impacts are greatest, and to indicate which problems are expected to be most serious in the future. The report is intended to provide relevant information that can be used in the management of the marine area in the future. It also provides input for the identification of environmental targets and management measures for the North Sea and Skagerrak.(Author)

  10. Deterministic modelling of the cumulative impacts of underground structures on urban groundwater flow and the definition of a potential state of urban groundwater flow: example of Lyon, France

    Science.gov (United States)

    Attard, Guillaume; Rossier, Yvan; Winiarski, Thierry; Cuvillier, Loann; Eisenlohr, Laurent

    2016-08-01

    Underground structures have been shown to have a great influence on subsoil resources in urban aquifers. A methodology to assess the actual and the potential state of the groundwater flow in an urban area is proposed. The study develops a three-dimensional modeling approach to understand the cumulative impacts of underground infrastructures on urban groundwater flow, using a case in the city of Lyon (France). All known underground structures were integrated in the numerical model. Several simulations were run: the actual state of groundwater flow, the potential state of groundwater flow (without underground structures), an intermediate state (without impervious structures), and a transient simulation of the actual state of groundwater flow. The results show that underground structures fragment groundwater flow systems leading to a modification of the aquifer regime. For the case studied, the flow systems are shown to be stable over time with a transient simulation. Structures with drainage systems are shown to have a major impact on flow systems. The barrier effect of impervious structures was negligible because of the small hydraulic gradient of the area. The study demonstrates that the definition of a potential urban groundwater flow and the depiction of urban flow systems, which involves understanding the impact of underground structures, are important issues with respect to urban underground planning.

  11. A Framework for Treating Cumulative Trauma with Art Therapy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naff, Kristina

    2014-01-01

    Cumulative trauma is relatively undocumented in art therapy practice, although there is growing evidence that art therapy provides distinct benefits for resolving various traumas. This qualitative study proposes an art therapy treatment framework for cumulative trauma derived from semi-structured interviews with three art therapists and artistic…

  12. A Framework for Treating Cumulative Trauma with Art Therapy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naff, Kristina

    2014-01-01

    Cumulative trauma is relatively undocumented in art therapy practice, although there is growing evidence that art therapy provides distinct benefits for resolving various traumas. This qualitative study proposes an art therapy treatment framework for cumulative trauma derived from semi-structured interviews with three art therapists and artistic…

  13. Estimating Model Evidence Using Data Assimilation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carrassi, Alberto; Bocquet, Marc; Hannart, Alexis; Ghil, Michael

    2017-04-01

    We review the field of data assimilation (DA) from a Bayesian perspective and show that, in addition to its by now common application to state estimation, DA may be used for model selection. An important special case of the latter is the discrimination between a factual model - which corresponds, to the best of the modeller's knowledge, to the situation in the actual world in which a sequence of events has occurred-and a counterfactual model, in which a particular forcing or process might be absent or just quantitatively different from the actual world. Three different ensemble-DA methods are reviewed for this purpose: the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), the ensemble four-dimensional variational smoother (En-4D-Var), and the iterative ensemble Kalman smoother (IEnKS). An original contextual formulation of model evidence (CME) is introduced. It is shown how to apply these three methods to compute CME, using the approximated time-dependent probability distribution functions (pdfs) each of them provide in the process of state estimation. The theoretical formulae so derived are applied to two simplified nonlinear and chaotic models: (i) the Lorenz three-variable convection model (L63), and (ii) the Lorenz 40- variable midlatitude atmospheric dynamics model (L95). The numerical results of these three DA-based methods and those of an integration based on importance sampling are compared. It is found that better CME estimates are obtained by using DA, and the IEnKS method appears to be best among the DA methods. Differences among the performance of the three DA-based methods are discussed as a function of model properties. Finally, the methodology is implemented for parameter estimation and for event attribution.

  14. An Axiomatization of Cumulative Prospect Theory

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wakker, P.P.; Tversky, A.

    1993-01-01

    This paper presents a method for axiomatizing a variety of models for decision making under uncertainty, including Expected Utility and Cumulative Prospect Theory. This method identifies, for each model, the situations that permit consistent inferences about the ordering of value differences. Exampl

  15. A semi-parametric censoring bias model for estimating the cumulative risk of a false-positive screening test under dependent censoring

    OpenAIRE

    Hubbard, Rebecca A.; Miglioretti, Diana L.

    2013-01-01

    False-positive test results are among the most common harms of screening tests and may lead to more invasive and expensive diagnostic testing procedures. Estimating the cumulative risk of a false-positive screening test result after repeat screening rounds is therefore important for evaluating potential screening regimens. Existing estimators of the cumulative false-positive risk are limited by strong assumptions about censoring mechanisms and parametric assumptions about variation in risk ac...

  16. Why Veterinary Medical Educators Should Embrace Cumulative Final Exams.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Royal, Kenneth D

    2017-01-03

    The topic of cumulative final examinations often elicits polarizing opinions from veterinary medical educators. While some faculty prefer cumulative finals, there are many who perceive these types of examinations as problematic. Specifically, faculty often cite cumulative examinations are more likely to cause students' greater stress, which may in turn result in negative student evaluations of teaching. Cumulative finals also restrict the number of items one may present to students on most recent material. While these cited disadvantages may have some merit, the advantages of cumulative examinations far exceed the disadvantages. The purpose of this article is to discuss the advantages of cumulative examinations with respect to learning evidence, grade/score validity, fairness issues, and implications for academic policy.

  17. UBIQUITOUS POLLUTANTS FROM CUMULATIVE ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    The occurrence of pharmaceuticals and personal care products (PPCPS) as environmental pollutants is a multifaceted issue whose scope continues to become better delineated since the escalation of concerted attention beginning in the 1980s. PPCPs typically occur as trace environmental pollutants (primarily in surface but also in ground waters) as a result of their widespread, continuous, combined usage in a broad range of human and veterinary therapeutic activities and practices. With respect to the risk-assessment paradigm, the growing body of published work has focused primarily on the origin and occurrence of these substances. Comparatively less is known about human and ecological exposure, and even less about the known or even potential hazards associated with exposure to these anthropogenic substances, many of which are highly bioactive. The continually growing, worldwide importance of freshwater resources underscores the need for ensuring that any aggregate or cumulative impacts on water supplies and resultant potential for human or ecological exposure be minimized. This has prompted the more recent investigations on waste treatment processes for one of the major sources of environmental disposition, namely sewage. Despite the paucity of health effects data for long-term, simultaneous exposure to multiple xenobiotics (particularly PPCPS) at low doses (a major toxicological issue that can be described by the

  18. Establishment and Analysis of Noise Model for Cumulative Flight Events%累积飞行事件噪声模型的建立和分析

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    闫国华; 王迪; 魏晓飞; 王彪

    2013-01-01

      多年来,凡是存在机场噪声问题的国家都已先后发展起自己的评价参数,但大多是选取单次飞行事件作为研究对象,而对长期连续的飞行事件还需要考虑飞行事件的次数、飞行时间等因素.由此,基于累积飞行事件的多项数据,建立计权参数模型和最大声级估算模型.其中,对最大声级的估算,根据不同的度量指标采用了多种不同的方法.并采用Delphi7.0软件编程实现航迹的绘制和各参数的计算.研究的结果对于机场的噪声评价有一定的参考价值.%In recent decades, many countries with the problem of airport noise have developed their own evaluation parameters, but most of them selected single flight events as the research objects. However, for the long-term continuous flight events, the number of flight events, flight time and some other factors also need to be considered. In this paper, some of the parametric models based on the data of cumulative flight events were presented, including weighting parameter model and maximum sound level estimation model. Delphi7.0 software was used to draw flight traces and calculate various parameters. Results of this work provide some reference value for airport noise evaluation.

  19. Seasonal climate change patterns due to cumulative CO2 emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Partanen, Antti-Ilari; Leduc, Martin; Damon Matthews, H.

    2017-07-01

    Cumulative CO2 emissions are near linearly related to both global and regional changes in annual-mean surface temperature. These relationships are known as the transient climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions (TCRE) and the regional TCRE (RTCRE), and have been shown to remain approximately constant over a wide range of cumulative emissions. Here, we assessed how well this relationship holds for seasonal patterns of temperature change, as well as for annual-mean and seasonal precipitation patterns. We analyzed an idealized scenario with CO2 concentration growing at an annual rate of 1% using data from 12 Earth system models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Seasonal RTCRE values for temperature varied considerably, with the highest seasonal variation evident in the Arctic, where RTCRE was about 5.5 °C per Tt C for boreal winter and about 2.0 °C per Tt C for boreal summer. Also the precipitation response in the Arctic during boreal winter was stronger than during other seasons. We found that emission-normalized seasonal patterns of temperature change were relatively robust with respect to time, though they were sub-linear with respect to emissions particularly near the Arctic. Moreover, RTCRE patterns for precipitation could not be quantified robustly due to the large internal variability of precipitation. Our results suggest that cumulative CO2 emissions are a useful metric to predict regional and seasonal changes in precipitation and temperature. This extension of the TCRE framework to seasonal and regional climate change is helpful for communicating the link between emissions and climate change to policy-makers and the general public, and is well-suited for impact studies that could make use of estimated regional-scale climate changes that are consistent with the carbon budgets associated with global temperature targets.

  20. Petrological, geochemical and isotopic investigations on a carbonate-dyke and enclosed pyroxenite xenoliths from Val Mastallone (Ivrea-Verbano Zone): evidence of a cumulate carbonatite in the lower crust?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galli, Andrea; Grassi, Daniele; Burg, Jean-Pierre; Schwab, Leo; Rickli, Jörg; Gianola, Omar

    2016-04-01

    The Ivrea-Verbano Zone (Italy/Switzerland) represents one of the best exposed mantle-crust sections worldwide. Its geological evolution has been governed by the Permian underplating of mantle-derived basic magmas („Mafic Complex") into the high-grade basement of the Southern Alps. In the Ivrea-Verbano Zone, marbles occur as concordant bodies or partly discordant carbonate-dykes. Generally, these dykes are constituted of calcite, diopside, scapolite, contain enclave of the host rocks and display sharp contacts to the host lithologies without evidences of alteration zones. In Val Mastallone, an up to 40 m thick carbonate-dyke with different characteristics occurs within mafic granulites. This dyke is composed of calcite, clinopyroxene and subordinate allanite and zircon. No scapolite is observed. The contacts to the host granulites are characterized by alteration zones composed of actinolite, chlorite, clinozoisite, plagioclase and calcite. The carbonate-dyke bears enclave of phlogopite-amphibole-apatite-rutile-ilmenite ± garnet or spinel clinopyroxenites. These rock type is not outcropping elsewhere in the proximity of the dyke, suggesting a significant transport. Host mafic granulite enclave are found exclusively at the margin of the dyke. Calcite dykelets rich in zircon, baddeleyite and other Ba, U, Th, REE-rich phases cut across the enclave. The carbonate-dyke shows an enrichment of LREE over HREE ((La/Yb)N = 14), with a Σ REE = 338 and Y/Ho = 27. On the chondrite-normalized REE abundances diagram, no Eu anomaly is observed. Mantle-normalized pattern shows strong negative anomalies at Cs, Rb, K, Pb, P, Zr, Hf, Ti and positive Ba, Th, Sr, Nd anomalies, similarly to the "world average carbonatites". Measured absolute trace element concentrations are lower than average carbonatites but significantly higher than typical limestones and similar to cumulate carbonatites found elsewhere in the world (e.g. India, China, Brazil). Grt-bearing clinopyroxenite enclave

  1. Population dynamics models based on cumulative density dependent feedback: A link to the logistic growth curve and a test for symmetry using aphid data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Matis, J.H.; Kiffe, T.R.; Werf, van der W.; Costamagna, A.C.; Matis, T.I.; Grant, W.E.

    2009-01-01

    Density dependent feedback, based on cumulative population size, has been advocated to explain and mathematically characterize “boom and bust” population dynamics. Such feedback results in a bell-shaped population trajectory of the population density. Here, we note that this trajectory is mathematic

  2. Research on sand pile model of cumulative fatigue damage%沙堆疲劳损伤累积模型的研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    温洁明; 陈国军; 陈家权; 吴燕瑞; 赵政飞

    2011-01-01

    由于材料具有循环硬化与软化、循环蠕变与松弛等特性,导致其在变幅循环应力作用下的疲劳损伤与加载顺序密切相关.国内外研究者提出了许多损伤累积模型,但有些模型未明确地阐述加载顺序的影响.通过分析影响疲劳损伤的重要因素,提出伴随损伤、视在损伤和耦合损伤新概念,结合模糊理论定量计算由耦合效应引起的耦合损伤,建立了一个能考虑加载顺序对疲劳损伤累积影响的沙堆疲劳损伤累积模型.选取16Mn和316L不锈钢材料的试验数据进行疲劳寿命预测,分析结果表明,所建立的模型能适用于不同加载顺序下的疲劳损伤累积计算,L-H和H-L两种加载顺序下疲劳寿命的预测结果与试验结果吻合良好,其寿命预测误差分散带基本在2倍因子内,预测精度高,便于工程应用.%The fatigue damage under variable amplitude cyclic stress is closely related with the loading sequence because of the cyclic hardening and softening cyclic creep and relaxation, and other characteristics of materials. Many domestic and foreign researchers have proposed models of damage accumulation, but some models are not explicitly described effect of the loading sequence.Therefore, new concepts of the adjoining damage, apparent damage and coupled damage were proposed by analyzing key factors affecting fatigue damage. Coupled damage produced by coupled effect was calculated quantitatively with the fuzzy theory. The sand pile model of cumulative fatigue damage is built by taking into account the effects of fatigue damage accumulation of loading sequence.Fatigue lives of 16Mn and 316L stainless steel were predicted and compared with test data. The results showed that the model can be applied to different loading sequence for calculating accumulative fatigue damage. Predicted results of fatigue life under two sequences of L-H and H-L were in good agreement with experimental ones. Scatter band of predicted

  3. Pavlovian conditioning and cumulative reinforcement rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, Justin A; Patterson, Angela E; Gharaei, Saba

    2015-04-01

    In 5 experiments using delay conditioning of magazine approach with rats, reinforcement rate was varied either by manipulating the mean interval between onset of the conditioned stimulus (CS) and unconditioned stimulus (US) or by manipulating the proportion of CS presentations that ended with the US (trial-based reinforcement rate). Both manipulations influenced the acquisition of responding. In each experiment, a specific comparison was made between 2 CSs that differed in their mean CS-US interval and in their trial-based reinforcement rate, such that the cumulative reinforcement rate-the cumulative duration of the CS between reinforcements-was the same for the 2 CSs. For example, a CS reinforced on 100% of trials with a mean CS-US interval of 60 s was compared with a CS reinforced on 33% of trials and a mean duration of 20 s. Across the 5 experiments, conditioning was virtually identical for the 2 CSs with matched cumulative reinforcement rate. This was true as long as the timing of the US was unpredictable and, thus, response rates were uniform across the length of the CS. We conclude that the effects of CS-US interval and of trial-based reinforcement rate are reducible entirely to their common effect on cumulative reinforcement rate. We discuss the implications of this for rate-based, trial-based, and real-time associative models of conditioning.

  4. Flipped classroom model for learning evidence-based medicine

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Rucker SY; Ozdogan Z; Al Achkar M

    2017-01-01

    .... A flipped classroom model appears to be an ideal strategy to meet the demands to connect evidence to practice while creating engaged, culturally competent, and technologically literate physicians...

  5. Lattice QCD results on cumulant ratios at freeze-out

    CERN Document Server

    Karsch, Frithjof

    2016-01-01

    Ratios of cumulants of net proton-number fluctuations measured by the STAR Collaboration show strong deviations from a skellam distribution, which should describe thermal properties of cumulant ratios, if proton-number fluctuations are generated in equilibrium and a hadron resonance gas (HRG) model would provide a suitable description of thermodynamics at the freeze-out temperature. We present some results on sixth order cumulants entering the calculation of the QCD equation of state at non-zero values of the baryon chemical potential (mu_B) and discuss limitations on the applicability of HRG thermodynamics deduced from a comparison between QCD and HRG model calculations of cumulants of conserved charge fluctuations. We show that basic features of the $\\mu_B$-dependence of skewness and kurtosis ratios of net proton-number fluctuations measured by the STAR Collaboration resemble those expected from a O(mu_B^2) QCD calculation of the corresponding net baryon-number cumulant ratios.

  6. Modeling Multivariate Volatility Processes: Theory and Evidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jelena Z. Minovic

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available This article presents theoretical and empirical methodology for estimation and modeling of multivariate volatility processes. It surveys the model specifications and the estimation methods. Multivariate GARCH models covered are VEC (initially due to Bollerslev, Engle and Wooldridge, 1988, diagonal VEC (DVEC, BEKK (named after Baba, Engle, Kraft and Kroner, 1995, Constant Conditional Correlation Model (CCC, Bollerslev, 1990, Dynamic Conditional Correlation Model (DCC models of Tse and Tsui, 2002, and Engle, 2002. I illustrate approach by applying it to daily data from the Belgrade stock exchange, I examine two pairs of daily log returns for stocks and index, report the results obtained, and compare them with the restricted version of BEKK, DVEC and CCC representations. The methods for estimation parameters used are maximum log-likehood (in BEKK and DVEC models and twostep approach (in CCC model.

  7. Structural Vibration Monitoring Using Cumulative Spectral Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Satoru Goto

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes a resonance decay estimation for structural health monitoring in the presence of nonstationary vibrations. In structural health monitoring, the structure's frequency response and resonant decay characteristics are very important for understanding how the structure changes. Cumulative spectral analysis (CSA estimates the frequency decay by using the impulse response. However, measuring the impulse response of buildings is impractical due to the need to shake the building itself. In a previous study, we reported on system damping monitoring using cumulative harmonic analysis (CHA, which is based on CSA. The current study describes scale model experiments on estimating the hidden resonance decay under non-stationary noise conditions by using CSA for structural condition monitoring.

  8. Transient and cumulative memory impairments induced by GSM 1.8 GHz cell phone signal in a mouse model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ntzouni, Maria P; Skouroliakou, Aikaterini; Kostomitsopoulos, Nikolaos; Margaritis, Lukas H

    2013-03-01

    This study was designed to investigate the transient and cumulative impairments in spatial and non-spatial memory of C57Bl/6J mice exposed to GSM 1.8 GHz signal for 90 min daily by a typical cellular (mobile) phone at a specific absorption rate value of 0.11 W/kg. Free-moving male mice 2 months old were irradiated in two experimental protocols, lasting for 66 and for 148 days respectively. Each protocol used three groups of animals (n = 8 each for exposed, sham exposed and controls) in combination with two behavioural paradigms, the object recognition task and the object location task sequentially applied at different time points. One-way analysis of variance revealed statistically significant impairments of both types of memory gradually accumulating, with more pronounced effects on the spatial memory. The impairments persisted even 2 weeks after interruption of the 8 weeks daily exposure, whereas the memory of mice as detected by both tasks showed a full recovery approximately 1 month later. Intermittent every other day exposure for 1 month had no effect on both types of memory. The data suggest that visual information processing mechanisms in hippocampus, perirhinal and entorhinal cortex are gradually malfunctioning upon long-term daily exposure, a phenotype that persists for at least 2 weeks after interruption of radiation, returning to normal memory performance levels 4 weeks later. It is postulated that cellular repair mechanisms are operating to eliminate the memory affecting molecules. The overall contribution of several possible mechanisms to the observed cumulative and transient impairments in spatial and non-spatial memory is discussed.

  9. Expansive Soil Crack Depth under Cumulative Damage

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bei-xiao Shi

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The crack developing depth is a key problem to slope stability of the expansive soil and its project governance and the crack appears under the roles of dry-wet cycle and gradually develops. It is believed from the analysis that, because of its own cohesion, the expansive soil will have a certain amount of deformation under pulling stress but without cracks. The soil body will crack only when the deformation exceeds the ultimate tensile strain that causes cracks. And it is also believed that, due to the combined effect of various environmental factors, particularly changes of the internal water content, the inherent basic physical properties of expansive soil are weakened, and irreversible cumulative damages are eventually formed, resulting in the development of expansive soil cracks in depth. Starting from the perspective of volumetric strain that is caused by water loss, considering the influences of water loss rate and dry-wet cycle on crack developing depth, the crack developing depth calculation model which considers the water loss rate and the cumulative damages is established. Both the proposal of water loss rate and the application of cumulative damage theory to the expansive soil crack development problems try to avoid difficulties in matrix suction measurement, which will surely play a good role in promoting and improving the research of unsaturated expansive soil.

  10. Towards Trustable Digital Evidence with PKIDEV: PKI Based Digital Evidence Verification Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uzunay, Yusuf; Incebacak, Davut; Bicakci, Kemal

    How to Capture and Preserve Digital Evidence Securely? For the investigation and prosecution of criminal activities that involve computers, digital evidence collected in the crime scene has a vital importance. On one side, it is a very challenging task for forensics professionals to collect them without any loss or damage. On the other, there is the second problem of providing the integrity and authenticity in order to achieve legal acceptance in a court of law. By conceiving digital evidence simply as one instance of digital data, it is evident that modern cryptography offers elegant solutions for this second problem. However, to our knowledge, there is not any previous work proposing a systematic model having a holistic view to address all the related security problems in this particular case of digital evidence verification. In this paper, we present PKIDEV (Public Key Infrastructure based Digital Evidence Verification model) as an integrated solution to provide security for the process of capturing and preserving digital evidence. PKIDEV employs, inter alia, cryptographic techniques like digital signatures and secure time-stamping as well as latest technologies such as GPS and EDGE. In our study, we also identify the problems public-key cryptography brings when it is applied to the verification of digital evidence.

  11. Scientific evidence of the homeopathic epistemological model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcus Zulian Teixeira

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Homeopathy is based on principles and a system of knowledge different from the ones supporting the conventional biomedical model: this epistemological conflict is the underlying reason explaining why it is so difficult to accept by present-day scientific reason. To legitimize homeopathy according to the standards of the latter, research must confirm the validity of its basic assumptions: principle of therapeutic similitude, trials of medicines on healthy individuals, individualized prescriptions and use of high dilutions. Correspondingly, basic research must supply experimental data and models to substantiate these principles of homeopathy, whilst clinical trials aim at confirming the efficacy and effectiveness of homeopathy in the treatment of disease. This article discusses the epistemological model of homeopathy relating its basic assumptions with data resulting from different fields of modern experimental research and supporting its therapeutic use on the outcomes of available clinical trials. In this regard, the principle of individualization of treatment is the sine qua non condition to make therapeutic similitude operative and consequently for homeopathic treatment to exhibit clinical efficacy and effectiveness.

  12. Innovativeness, population size and cumulative cultural evolution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kobayashi, Yutaka; Aoki, Kenichi

    2012-08-01

    Henrich [Henrich, J., 2004. Demography and cultural evolution: how adaptive cultural processes can produce maladaptive losses-the Tasmanian case. Am. Antiquity 69, 197-214] proposed a model designed to show that larger population size facilitates cumulative cultural evolution toward higher skill levels. In this model, each newborn attempts to imitate the most highly skilled individual of the parental generation by directly-biased social learning, but the skill level he/she acquires deviates probabilistically from that of the exemplar (cultural parent). The probability that the skill level of the imitator exceeds that of the exemplar can be regarded as the innovation rate. After reformulating Henrich's model rigorously, we introduce an overlapping-generations analog based on the Moran model and derive an approximate formula for the expected change per generation of the highest skill level in the population. For large population size, our overlapping-generations model predicts a much larger effect of population size than Henrich's discrete-generations model. We then investigate by way of Monte Carlo simulations the case where each newborn chooses as his/her exemplar the most highly skilled individual from among a limited number of acquaintances. When the number of acquaintances is small relative to the population size, we find that a change in the innovation rate contributes more than a proportional change in population size to the cumulative cultural evolution of skill level.

  13. Electro-cumulation CNF project

    CERN Document Server

    Grishin, V G

    2000-01-01

    bound or free ion current within solid substances; non-plain symmetry; cumulation of the ion interaction. Experimental result: an Ice SuperPolarization. Cold nuclear fusion ? At http://www.shortway.to/to2084 . Keywords: ion, current, solid, symmetry, cumulation, cold nuclear fusion, polarization, depolarization, ionic conductor, superionic conductor, ice, crystal, strain, V-center, V-centre, doped crystal, interstitial impurity, intrinsic color center, high pressure technology, Bridgman, experiment, crowdion, dielectric, proton, layer, defect, lattice, dynamics, electromigration, mobility, muon catalysis, concentration, doping, dopant, conductivity, pycnonuclear reaction, permittivity, dielectric constant, point defects, interstitials, polarizability, imperfection, defect centers, glass, epitaxy, sodium hydroxide, metallic substrate, crystallization, point, tip, susceptibility, ferroelectric, ordering, force, correlation, collective, shift, distortion, coalescence, crowdions, electrolysis.

  14. Strategic collaborative model for evidence-based nursing practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olade, Rosaline A

    2004-01-01

    To describe a model that has been developed to guide nurses and other health professionals in collaborative efforts toward evidence-based nursing practice. A review of literature was conducted using MEDLINE and CINAHL to search for articles on research utilization for evidence-based practice in health care delivery. Empirical studies; reviews; and theoretical, opinion, and information articles were included in the review in order to provide a more comprehensive view of the state of evidence-based nursing internationally. Findings revealed a number of barriers to evidence-based nursing practice, which have persisted over the last two decades, including inadequate knowledge of research among practicing nurses, lack of administrative support for research activities in clinical settings, lack of empowerment of nurses, and lack of needed mentoring from nursing research consultants. Barriers in the areas of nursing education and administrative support appear to be major. A need was identified for a pragmatic model that encourages cooperation and collaboration between educators/researchers in academia and the administrative leaders in the clinical facilities if evidence-based nursing practice is to become the norm. FRAMEWORK OF MODEL: The Tyler Collaborative Model is based on an eclectic approach to planned change for creating evidence-based practice. This model identifies a step-by-step process for change, while allowing for the opportunity to integrate any of the previously available methods of critical appraisal to determine the best evidence for practice in each clinical setting.

  15. CDMBE: A Case Description Model Based on Evidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jianlin Zhu

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available By combining the advantages of argument map and Bayesian network, a case description model based on evidence (CDMBE, which is suitable to continental law system, is proposed to describe the criminal cases. The logic of the model adopts the credibility logical reason and gets evidence-based reasoning quantitatively based on evidences. In order to consist with practical inference rules, five types of relationship and a set of rules are defined to calculate the credibility of assumptions based on the credibility and supportability of the related evidences. Experiments show that the model can get users’ ideas into a figure and the results calculated from CDMBE are in line with those from Bayesian model.

  16. Evaluation of Cumulative Ecosystem Response to Restoration Projects in the Lower Columbia River and Estuary, 2010

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johnson, Gary E.; Diefenderfer, Heida L.; Thom, Ronald M.; Roegner, G. Curtis; Ebberts, Blaine D.; Skalski, John R.; Borde, Amy B.; Dawley, Earl; Coleman, Andre M.; Woodruff, Dana L.; Breithaupt, Stephen A.; Cameron, April; Corbett, C.; Donley, Erin E.; Jay, D. A.; Ke, Yinghai; Leffler, K.; McNeil, C.; Studebaker, Cindy; Tagestad, Jerry D.

    2012-05-01

    This is the seventh and final annual report of a project (2004–2010) addressing evaluation of the cumulative effects of habitat restoration actions in the 235-km-long lower Columbia River and estuary. The project, called the Cumulative Effects (CE) study, was conducted for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Portland District by a collaboration of research agencies led by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. We achieved the primary goal of the CE study to develop a methodology to evaluate the cumulative effects of habitat actions in the Columbia Estuary Ecosystem Restoration Program. We delivered 1) standard monitoring protocols and methods to prioritize monitoring activities; 2) the theoretical and empirical basis for a CE methodology using levels-of-evidence; 3) evaluations of cumulative effects using ecological relationships, geo-referenced data, hydrodynamic modeling, and meta-analyses; and 4) an adaptive management process to coordinate and coalesce restoration efforts in the LCRE. A solid foundation has been laid for future comprehensive evaluations of progress made by the Columbia Estuary Ecosystem Restoration Program to understand, conserve, and restore ecosystems in the lower Columbia River and estuary.

  17. GIS-Based (W+-W-) Weight of Evidence Model and Its Application to Gold Resources Assessment in Abitibi, Canada

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2006-01-01

    The weight of evidence (WofE) model has been widely used for mineral potential mapping.During the conversion of a multiclass map into a binary map a lot of mineralization information is artificially added or lost because the generalization of the class within the cumulative distance interval to a linear feature is based on a maximum contrast, which matches a cumulative distance interval. Additionally,some categorical data evidence cannot be generated by this method because a maximum contrast does not exist. In this article, an alternative (W+ -W- )-based WofE model is proposed. In this model, the "(W+ -W- ) greater than zero or not" is used as a criterion to reclassify the corresponding categorical class into a presence or absence class to convert a multiclass map into a binary map. This model can be applied to both categorical data and successive data. The latter can be operated as categorical data. The W+ and W- of the generated binary maps can be recalculated, and several binary maps can be integrated on the condition that the reclassified binary evidences are conditionally independent of each other. This method effectively reduces artificial data and both nominal and categorical data can be operated. A case study of gold potential mapping in the Abitibi area, Ontario, Canada, shows that the gold potential map by the (W+ -W- ) model displays a smaller potential area but a higher posterior probability (POP),whereas the potential map by the traditional (W+ -W- ) model exhibits a larger potential area but a lower POP.

  18. Cumulative Paired φ-Entropy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ingo Klein

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available A new kind of entropy will be introduced which generalizes both the differential entropy and the cumulative (residual entropy. The generalization is twofold. First, we simultaneously define the entropy for cumulative distribution functions (cdfs and survivor functions (sfs, instead of defining it separately for densities, cdfs, or sfs. Secondly, we consider a general “entropy generating function” φ, the same way Burbea et al. (IEEE Trans. Inf. Theory 1982, 28, 489–495 and Liese et al. (Convex Statistical Distances; Teubner-Verlag, 1987 did in the context of φ-divergences. Combining the ideas of φ-entropy and cumulative entropy leads to the new “cumulative paired φ-entropy” ( C P E φ . This new entropy has already been discussed in at least four scientific disciplines, be it with certain modifications or simplifications. In the fuzzy set theory, for example, cumulative paired φ-entropies were defined for membership functions, whereas in uncertainty and reliability theories some variations of C P E φ were recently considered as measures of information. With a single exception, the discussions in the scientific disciplines appear to be held independently of each other. We consider C P E φ for continuous cdfs and show that C P E φ is rather a measure of dispersion than a measure of information. In the first place, this will be demonstrated by deriving an upper bound which is determined by the standard deviation and by solving the maximum entropy problem under the restriction of a fixed variance. Next, this paper specifically shows that C P E φ satisfies the axioms of a dispersion measure. The corresponding dispersion functional can easily be estimated by an L-estimator, containing all its known asymptotic properties. C P E φ is the basis for several related concepts like mutual φ-information, φ-correlation, and φ-regression, which generalize Gini correlation and Gini regression. In addition, linear rank tests for scale that

  19. Some Characterization Results on Dynamic Cumulative Residual Tsallis Entropy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Madan Mohan Sati

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available We propose a generalized cumulative residual information measure based on Tsallis entropy and its dynamic version. We study the characterizations of the proposed information measure and define new classes of life distributions based on this measure. Some applications are provided in relation to weighted and equilibrium probability models. Finally the empirical cumulative Tsallis entropy is proposed to estimate the new information measure.

  20. Steps and pips in the history of the cumulative recorder.

    OpenAIRE

    Lattal, Kennon A.

    2004-01-01

    From its inception in the 1930s until very recent times, the cumulative recorder was the most widely used measurement instrument in the experimental analysis of behavior. It was an essential instrument in the discovery and analysis of schedules of reinforcement, providing the first real-time analysis of operant response rates and patterns. This review traces the evolution of the cumulative recorder from Skinner's early modified kymographs through various models developed by Skinner and his co...

  1. Climate mitigation: sustainable preferences and cumulative carbon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buckle, Simon

    2010-05-01

    We develop a stylized AK growth model with both climate damages to ecosystem goods and services and sustainable preferences that allow trade-offs between present discounted utility and long-run climate damages. The simplicity of the model permits analytical solutions. Concern for the long-term provides a strong driver for mitigation action. One plausible specification of sustainable preferences leads to the result that, for a range of initial parameter values, an optimizing agent would choose a level of cumulative carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions independent of initial production capital endowment and CO2 levels. There is no technological change so, for economies with sufficiently high initial capital and CO2 endowments, optimal mitigation will lead to disinvestment. For lower values of initial capital and/or CO2 levels, positive investment can be optimal, but still within the same overall level of cumulative emissions. One striking aspect of the model is the complexity of possible outcomes, in addition to these optimal solutions. We also identify a resource constrained region and several regions where climate damages exceed resources available for consumption. Other specifications of sustainable preferences are discussed, as is the case of a hard constraint on long-run damages. Scientists are currently highlighting the potential importance of the cumulative carbon emissions concept as a robust yet flexible target for climate policymakers. This paper shows that it also has an ethical interpretation: it embodies an implicit trade off in global welfare between present discounted welfare and long-term climate damages. We hope that further development of the ideas presented here might contribute to the research and policy debate on the critical areas of intra- and intergenerational welfare.

  2. New tests of cumulative prospect theory and the priority heuristic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael H. Birnbaum

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available Previous tests of cumulative prospect theory (CPT and of the priority heuristic (PH found evidence contradicting these two models of risky decision making. However, those tests were criticized because they had characteristics that might ``trigger'' use of other heuristics. This paper presents new tests that avoid those characteristics. Expected values of the gambles are nearly equal in each choice. In addition, if a person followed expected value (EV, expected utility (EU, CPT, or PH in these tests, she would shift her preferences in the same direction as shifts in EV or EU. In contrast, the transfer of attention exchange model (TAX and a similarity model predict that people will reverse preferences in the opposite direction. Results contradict the PH, even when PH is modified to include a preliminary similarity evaluation using the PH parameters. New tests of probability-consequence interaction were also conducted. Strong interactions were observed, contrary to PH. These results add to the growing bodies of evidence showing that neither CPT nor PH is an accurate description of risky decision making.

  3. Bayesian model evidence for order selection and correlation testing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnston, Leigh A; Mareels, Iven M Y; Egan, Gary F

    2011-01-01

    Model selection is a critical component of data analysis procedures, and is particularly difficult for small numbers of observations such as is typical of functional MRI datasets. In this paper we derive two Bayesian evidence-based model selection procedures that exploit the existence of an analytic form for the linear Gaussian model class. Firstly, an evidence information criterion is proposed as a model order selection procedure for auto-regressive models, outperforming the commonly employed Akaike and Bayesian information criteria in simulated data. Secondly, an evidence-based method for testing change in linear correlation between datasets is proposed, which is demonstrated to outperform both the traditional statistical test of the null hypothesis of no correlation change and the likelihood ratio test.

  4. Development of a prediction model and estimation of cumulative risk for upper aerodigestive tract cancer on the basis of the aldehyde dehydrogenase 2 genotype and alcohol consumption in a Japanese population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koyanagi, Yuriko N.; Ito, Hidemi; Oze, Isao; Hosono, Satoyo; Tanaka, Hideo; Abe, Tetsuya; Shimizu, Yasuhiro; Hasegawa, Yasuhisa

    2017-01-01

    Alcohol consumption and the aldehyde dehydrogenase 2 (ALDH2) polymorphism are associated with the risk of upper aerodigestive tract cancer, and a significant gene–environment interaction between the two has been confirmed in a Japanese population. To aid the development of a personalized prevention strategy, we developed a risk-prediction model and estimated absolute risks stratified by a combination of the ALDH2 genotype and alcohol consumption. We carried out two age-matched and sex-matched case–control studies: one (630 cases and 1260 controls) for model derivation and the second (654 cases and 654 controls) for external validation. On the basis of data from the derivation study, a prediction model was developed by fitting a conditional logistic regression model using the following predictors: age, sex, smoking, drinking, and the ALDH2 genotype. The risk model, including a combination of the ALDH2 genotype and alcohol consumption, provided high discriminatory accuracy and good calibration in both the derivation and the validation studies: C statistics were 0.82 (95% confidence interval 0.80–0.84) and 0.83 (95% confidence interval 0.81–0.85), respectively, and the calibration plots of both studies remained close to the ideal calibration line. Cumulative risks were obtained by combining odds ratios estimated from the risk model with the age-specific incidence rate and population size. For heavy drinkers with a heterozygous genotype, the cumulative risk at age 80 was above 20%. In contrast, risk in the other groups was less than 5%. In conclusion, modification of alcohol consumption according to the ALDH2 genotype will have a major impact on upper aerodigestive tract cancer prevention. These findings represent a simple and practical model for personalized cancer prevention. PMID:26862830

  5. The Algebra of the Cumulative Percent Operation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berry, Andrew J.

    2002-01-01

    Discusses how to help students avoid some pervasive reasoning errors in solving cumulative percent problems. Discusses the meaning of ."%+b%." the additive inverse of ."%." and other useful applications. Emphasizes the operational aspect of the cumulative percent concept. (KHR)

  6. Adaptive strategies for cumulative cultural learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ehn, Micael; Laland, Kevin

    2012-05-21

    The demographic and ecological success of our species is frequently attributed to our capacity for cumulative culture. However, it is not yet known how humans combine social and asocial learning to generate effective strategies for learning in a cumulative cultural context. Here we explore how cumulative culture influences the relative merits of various pure and conditional learning strategies, including pure asocial and social learning, critical social learning, conditional social learning and individual refiner strategies. We replicate the Rogers' paradox in the cumulative setting. However, our analysis suggests that strategies that resolved Rogers' paradox in a non-cumulative setting may not necessarily evolve in a cumulative setting, thus different strategies will optimize cumulative and non-cumulative cultural learning.

  7. Flipped classroom model for learning evidence-based medicine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rucker, Sydney Y; Ozdogan, Zulfukar; Al Achkar, Morhaf

    2017-01-01

    Journal club (JC), as a pedagogical strategy, has long been used in graduate medical education (GME). As evidence-based medicine (EBM) becomes a mainstay in GME, traditional models of JC present a number of insufficiencies and call for novel models of instruction. A flipped classroom model appears to be an ideal strategy to meet the demands to connect evidence to practice while creating engaged, culturally competent, and technologically literate physicians. In this article, we describe a novel model of flipped classroom in JC. We present the flow of learning activities during the online and face-to-face instruction, and then we highlight specific considerations for implementing a flipped classroom model. We show that implementing a flipped classroom model to teach EBM in a residency program not only is possible but also may constitute improved learning opportunity for residents. Follow-up work is needed to evaluate the effectiveness of this model on both learning and clinical practice.

  8. Flipped classroom model for learning evidence-based medicine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rucker, Sydney Y; Ozdogan, Zulfukar; Al Achkar, Morhaf

    2017-01-01

    Journal club (JC), as a pedagogical strategy, has long been used in graduate medical education (GME). As evidence-based medicine (EBM) becomes a mainstay in GME, traditional models of JC present a number of insufficiencies and call for novel models of instruction. A flipped classroom model appears to be an ideal strategy to meet the demands to connect evidence to practice while creating engaged, culturally competent, and technologically literate physicians. In this article, we describe a novel model of flipped classroom in JC. We present the flow of learning activities during the online and face-to-face instruction, and then we highlight specific considerations for implementing a flipped classroom model. We show that implementing a flipped classroom model to teach EBM in a residency program not only is possible but also may constitute improved learning opportunity for residents. Follow-up work is needed to evaluate the effectiveness of this model on both learning and clinical practice. PMID:28919831

  9. "Buddha's Light" of Cumulative Particles

    CERN Document Server

    Kopeliovich, Vladimir B; Potashnikova, Irina K

    2014-01-01

    We show analytically that in the cumulative particles production off nuclei multiple interactions lead to a glory-like backward focusing effect. Employing the small phase space method we arrived at a characteristic angular dependence of the production cross section $d\\sigma \\sim 1/ \\sqrt {\\pi - \\theta}$ near the strictly backward direction. This effect takes place for any number $n\\geq 3 $ of interactions of rescattered particle, either elastic or inelastic (with resonance excitations in intermediate states), when the final particle is produced near corresponding kinematical boundary. Such a behaviour of the cross section near the backward direction is in qualitative agreement with some of available data.

  10. Bridging Research, Practice, and Policy: The "Evidence Academy" Conference Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rohweder, Catherine L; Laping, Jane L; Diehl, Sandra J; Moore, Alexis A; Isler, Malika Roman; Scott, Jennifer Elissa; Enga, Zoe Kaori; Black, Molly C; Dave, Gaurav; Corbie-Smith, Giselle; Melvin, Cathy L

    2016-01-01

    Innovative models to facilitate more rapid uptake of research findings into practice are urgently needed. Community members who engage in research can accelerate this process by acting as adoption agents. We implemented an Evidence Academy conference model bringing together researchers, health care professionals, advocates, and policy makers across North Carolina to discuss high-impact, life-saving study results. The overall goal is to develop dissemination and implementation strategies for translating evidence into practice and policy. Each 1-day, single-theme, regional meeting focuses on a leading community-identified health priority. The model capitalizes on the power of diverse local networks to encourage broad, common awareness of new research findings. Furthermore, it emphasizes critical reflection and active group discussion on how to incorporate new evidence within and across organizations, health care systems, and communities. During the concluding session, participants are asked to articulate action plans relevant to their individual interests, work setting, or area of expertise.

  11. Cumulative risk effects in the bullying of children and young people with autism spectrum conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hebron, Judith; Oldfield, Jeremy; Humphrey, Neil

    2017-04-01

    Students with autism are more likely to be bullied than their typically developing peers. However, several studies have shown that their likelihood of being bullied increases in the context of exposure to certain risk factors (e.g. behaviour difficulties and poor peer relationships). This study explores vulnerability to bullying from a cumulative risk perspective, where the number of risks rather than their nature is considered. A total of 722 teachers and 119 parents of young people with autism spectrum conditions participated in the study. Established risk factors were summed to form a cumulative risk score in teacher and parent models. There was evidence of a cumulative risk effect in both models, suggesting that as the number of risks increased, so did exposure to bullying. A quadratic effect was found in the teacher model, indicating that there was a disproportionate increase in the likelihood of being bullied in relation to the number of risk factors to which a young person was exposed. In light of these findings, it is proposed that more attention needs to be given to the number of risks to which children and young people with autism spectrum conditions are exposed when planning interventions and providing a suitable educational environment.

  12. The effect evaluation of the cumulative assessment model in nursing safety control%累计考核管理模式在护理安全管理中应用的效果评价

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    谢惠兰; 罗敏; 欧阳庆; 刘玉娥; 成放群; 周利华; 胡碧波; 周扬飞; 张晓玲

    2014-01-01

    目的 探索累计考核管理模式在护理安全管理中的应用及效果评价.方法 在原有“累计扣分制”被动处罚式的管理模式的基础上逐步建立主动预防式的安全管理模式.以5个试点病房为研究对象,比较实施前后护士安全意识及患者安全文化的认知、不良事件主动报告、护理质量及患者满意度的变化情况.结果 5个试点病房的护理人员安全意识及患者安全文化的认知度提高,不良事件主动呈报率较前增多,护理质量及患者满意度提高.结论 通过建立累计考核管理模式改变了以前“扣分、批评、通报、处罚”的管理模式,强化了护士的安全认知和安全行为,构建了积极的患者安全文化氛围,采用“不惩罚”及“保密”的原则,系统地收集、分析、梳理、总结、共享不良事件信息,并着重分析系统层面、管理因素、环境因素的综合成因,逐步实现从系统的角度处理安全隐患的风险管理策略,达到前馈控制安全事件的发生,形成一个利用差错信息来提高护理质量和患者安全的主动预防式管理模式.%Objective To explore the application and the effect evaluation of cumulative assessment management model in nursing safety control.Methods The original passive punishment management such as "cumulative deduction model" was gradually transformed into active precaution safety management model.The objects of research were 5 wards that the cumulative assessment model was applied to.The results were used to compare the changes of the nurses' safety consciousness,patients' safety culture cognition,spontaneous reporting of the adverse events,nursing quality and patients satisfaction before and after the implementation of active precaution safety management.Results In the 5 wards,nurses' safety consciousness and patients' safety culture cognition were improved; the spontaneous reporting of the adverse events increased and the nursing

  13. AIC, BIC, Bayesian evidence against the interacting dark energy model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szydłowski, Marek; Krawiec, Adam; Kurek, Aleksandra; Kamionka, Michał

    2015-01-01

    Recent astronomical observations have indicated that the Universe is in a phase of accelerated expansion. While there are many cosmological models which try to explain this phenomenon, we focus on the interacting CDM model where an interaction between the dark energy and dark matter sectors takes place. This model is compared to its simpler alternative—the CDM model. To choose between these models the likelihood ratio test was applied as well as the model comparison methods (employing Occam's principle): the Akaike information criterion (AIC), the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) and the Bayesian evidence. Using the current astronomical data: type Ia supernova (Union2.1), , baryon acoustic oscillation, the Alcock-Paczynski test, and the cosmic microwave background data, we evaluated both models. The analyses based on the AIC indicated that there is less support for the interacting CDM model when compared to the CDM model, while those based on the BIC indicated that there is strong evidence against it in favor of the CDM model. Given the weak or almost non-existing support for the interacting CDM model and bearing in mind Occam's razor we are inclined to reject this model.

  14. AIC, BIC, Bayesian evidence against the interacting dark energy model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Szydłowski, Marek, E-mail: marek.szydlowski@uj.edu.pl [Astronomical Observatory, Jagiellonian University, Orla 171, 30-244, Kraków (Poland); Mark Kac Complex Systems Research Centre, Jagiellonian University, Reymonta 4, 30-059, Kraków (Poland); Krawiec, Adam, E-mail: adam.krawiec@uj.edu.pl [Institute of Economics, Finance and Management, Jagiellonian University, Łojasiewicza 4, 30-348, Kraków (Poland); Mark Kac Complex Systems Research Centre, Jagiellonian University, Reymonta 4, 30-059, Kraków (Poland); Kurek, Aleksandra, E-mail: alex@oa.uj.edu.pl [Astronomical Observatory, Jagiellonian University, Orla 171, 30-244, Kraków (Poland); Kamionka, Michał, E-mail: kamionka@astro.uni.wroc.pl [Astronomical Institute, University of Wrocław, ul. Kopernika 11, 51-622, Wrocław (Poland)

    2015-01-14

    Recent astronomical observations have indicated that the Universe is in a phase of accelerated expansion. While there are many cosmological models which try to explain this phenomenon, we focus on the interacting ΛCDM model where an interaction between the dark energy and dark matter sectors takes place. This model is compared to its simpler alternative—the ΛCDM model. To choose between these models the likelihood ratio test was applied as well as the model comparison methods (employing Occam’s principle): the Akaike information criterion (AIC), the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) and the Bayesian evidence. Using the current astronomical data: type Ia supernova (Union2.1), h(z), baryon acoustic oscillation, the Alcock–Paczynski test, and the cosmic microwave background data, we evaluated both models. The analyses based on the AIC indicated that there is less support for the interacting ΛCDM model when compared to the ΛCDM model, while those based on the BIC indicated that there is strong evidence against it in favor of the ΛCDM model. Given the weak or almost non-existing support for the interacting ΛCDM model and bearing in mind Occam’s razor we are inclined to reject this model.

  15. AIC, BIC, Bayesian evidence against the interacting dark energy model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Szydlowski, Marek [Jagiellonian University, Astronomical Observatory, Krakow (Poland); Jagiellonian University, Mark Kac Complex Systems Research Centre, Krakow (Poland); Krawiec, Adam [Jagiellonian University, Institute of Economics, Finance and Management, Krakow (Poland); Jagiellonian University, Mark Kac Complex Systems Research Centre, Krakow (Poland); Kurek, Aleksandra [Jagiellonian University, Astronomical Observatory, Krakow (Poland); Kamionka, Michal [University of Wroclaw, Astronomical Institute, Wroclaw (Poland)

    2015-01-01

    Recent astronomical observations have indicated that the Universe is in a phase of accelerated expansion. While there are many cosmological models which try to explain this phenomenon, we focus on the interacting ΛCDM model where an interaction between the dark energy and dark matter sectors takes place. This model is compared to its simpler alternative - the ΛCDM model. To choose between these models the likelihood ratio test was applied as well as the model comparison methods (employing Occam's principle): the Akaike information criterion (AIC), the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) and the Bayesian evidence. Using the current astronomical data: type Ia supernova (Union2.1), h(z), baryon acoustic oscillation, the Alcock- Paczynski test, and the cosmic microwave background data, we evaluated both models. The analyses based on the AIC indicated that there is less support for the interacting ΛCDM model when compared to the ΛCDM model, while those based on the BIC indicated that there is strong evidence against it in favor of the ΛCDM model. Given the weak or almost non-existing support for the interacting ΛCDM model and bearing in mind Occam's razor we are inclined to reject this model. (orig.)

  16. A PHYSIOLOGICALLY BASED PHARMACOKINETIC/PHARMACODYNAMIC (PBPK/PD) MODEL FOR ESTIMATION OF CUMULATIVE RISK FROM EXPOSURE TO THREE N-METHYL CARBAMATES: CARBARYL, ALDICARB, AND CARBOFURAN

    Science.gov (United States)

    A physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model for a mixture of N-methyl carbamate pesticides was developed based on single chemical models. The model was used to compare urinary metabolite concentrations to levels from National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHA...

  17. Continuously Cumulating Meta-Analysis and Replicability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braver, Sanford L; Thoemmes, Felix J; Rosenthal, Robert

    2014-05-01

    The current crisis in scientific psychology about whether our findings are irreproducible was presaged years ago by Tversky and Kahneman (1971), who noted that even sophisticated researchers believe in the fallacious Law of Small Numbers-erroneous intuitions about how imprecisely sample data reflect population phenomena. Combined with the low power of most current work, this often leads to the use of misleading criteria about whether an effect has replicated. Rosenthal (1990) suggested more appropriate criteria, here labeled the continuously cumulating meta-analytic (CCMA) approach. For example, a CCMA analysis on a replication attempt that does not reach significance might nonetheless provide more, not less, evidence that the effect is real. Alternatively, measures of heterogeneity might show that two studies that differ in whether they are significant might have only trivially different effect sizes. We present a nontechnical introduction to the CCMA framework (referencing relevant software), and then explain how it can be used to address aspects of replicability or more generally to assess quantitative evidence from numerous studies. We then present some examples and simulation results using the CCMA approach that show how the combination of evidence can yield improved results over the consideration of single studies.

  18. Modelling Based Approach for Reconstructing Evidence of VOIP Malicious Attacks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammed Ibrahim

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP is a new communication technology that uses internet protocol in providing phone services. VoIP provides various forms of benefits such as low monthly fee and cheaper rate in terms of long distance and international calls. However, VoIP is accompanied with novel security threats. Criminals often take advantages of such security threats and commit illicit activities. These activities require digital forensic experts to acquire, analyses, reconstruct and provide digital evidence. Meanwhile, there are various methodologies and models proposed in detecting, analysing and providing digital evidence in VoIP forensic. However, at the time of writing this paper, there is no model formalized for the reconstruction of VoIP malicious attacks. Reconstruction of attack scenario is an important technique in exposing the unknown criminal acts. Hence, this paper will strive in addressing that gap. We propose a model for reconstructing VoIP malicious attacks. To achieve that, a formal logic approach called Secure Temporal Logic of Action(S-TLA+ was adopted in rebuilding the attack scenario. The expected result of this model is to generate additional related evidences and their consistency with the existing evidences can be determined by means of S-TLA+ model checker.

  19. Flipped classroom model for learning evidence-based medicine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rucker SY

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Sydney Y Rucker,1 Zulfukar Ozdogan,1 Morhaf Al Achkar2 1School of Education, Indiana University, Bloomington, IN, 2Department of Family Medicine, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA Abstract: Journal club (JC, as a pedagogical strategy, has long been used in graduate medical education (GME. As evidence-based medicine (EBM becomes a mainstay in GME, traditional models of JC present a number of insufficiencies and call for novel models of instruction. A flipped classroom model appears to be an ideal strategy to meet the demands to connect evidence to practice while creating engaged, culturally competent, and technologically literate physicians. In this article, we describe a novel model of flipped classroom in JC. We present the flow of learning activities during the online and face-to-face instruction, and then we highlight specific considerations for implementing a flipped classroom model. We show that implementing a flipped classroom model to teach EBM in a residency program not only is possible but also may constitute improved learning opportunity for residents. Follow-up work is needed to evaluate the effectiveness of this model on both learning and clinical practice. Keywords: evidence-based medicine, flipped classroom, residency education

  20. Evidence accumulation as a model for lexical selection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anders, R; Riès, S; van Maanen, L; Alario, F X

    2015-11-01

    We propose and demonstrate evidence accumulation as a plausible theoretical and/or empirical model for the lexical selection process of lexical retrieval. A number of current psycholinguistic theories consider lexical selection as a process related to selecting a lexical target from a number of alternatives, which each have varying activations (or signal supports), that are largely resultant of an initial stimulus recognition. We thoroughly present a case for how such a process may be theoretically explained by the evidence accumulation paradigm, and we demonstrate how this paradigm can be directly related or combined with conventional psycholinguistic theory and their simulatory instantiations (generally, neural network models). Then with a demonstrative application on a large new real data set, we establish how the empirical evidence accumulation approach is able to provide parameter results that are informative to leading psycholinguistic theory, and that motivate future theoretical development. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. KINETICS OF CORTISOL METABOLISM AND EXCRETION - A HYPOTHETICAL MODEL BASED ON THE CUMULATIVE URINARY RADIOACTIVITY IN 8 MULTIPLE PITUITARY DEFICIENT PATIENTS

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    KRAAN, GPB; DRAYER, NM; DEBRUIN, R

    A new model is proposed to study the kinetics of [H-3]cortisol metabolism by using urinary data only. The model consists of 5 pools, in which changes of the fractions of dose are given by a system of 5 ordinary differential equations. After i.v. administration of [H-3]cortisol to 8 multiple

  2. Completing the Remedial Sequence and College-Level Credit-Bearing Math: Comparing Binary, Cumulative, and Continuation Ratio Logistic Regression Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davidson, J. Cody

    2016-01-01

    Mathematics is the most common subject area of remedial need and the majority of remedial math students never pass a college-level credit-bearing math class. The majorities of studies that investigate this phenomenon are conducted at community colleges and use some type of regression model; however, none have used a continuation ratio model. The…

  3. KINETICS OF CORTISOL METABOLISM AND EXCRETION - A HYPOTHETICAL MODEL BASED ON THE CUMULATIVE URINARY RADIOACTIVITY IN 8 MULTIPLE PITUITARY DEFICIENT PATIENTS

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    KRAAN, GPB; DRAYER, NM; DEBRUIN, R

    1992-01-01

    A new model is proposed to study the kinetics of [H-3]cortisol metabolism by using urinary data only. The model consists of 5 pools, in which changes of the fractions of dose are given by a system of 5 ordinary differential equations. After i.v. administration of [H-3]cortisol to 8 multiple pituitar

  4. Completing the Remedial Sequence and College-Level Credit-Bearing Math: Comparing Binary, Cumulative, and Continuation Ratio Logistic Regression Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davidson, J. Cody

    2016-01-01

    Mathematics is the most common subject area of remedial need and the majority of remedial math students never pass a college-level credit-bearing math class. The majorities of studies that investigate this phenomenon are conducted at community colleges and use some type of regression model; however, none have used a continuation ratio model. The…

  5. Evidence accumulation as a model for lexical selection

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Anders, R.; Riès, S.; van Maanen, L.; Alario, F.-X.

    2015-01-01

    We propose and demonstrate evidence accumulation as a plausible theoretical and/or empirical model for the lexical selection process of lexical retrieval. A number of current psycholinguistic theories consider lexical selection as a process related to selecting a lexical target from a number of

  6. Models of social entrepreneurship: empirical evidence from Mexico

    OpenAIRE

    Wulleman, Marine; Hudon, Marek

    2015-01-01

    This paper seeks to improve the understanding of social entrepreneurship models based on empirical evidence from Mexico, where social entrepreneurship is currently booming. It aims to supplement existing typologies of social entrepreneurship models. To that end, building on Zahra et al. (2009) typology it begins by providing a new framework classifying the three types of social entrepreneurship. A comparative case study of ten Mexican social enterprises is then elaborated using that framework...

  7. Evident?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Plant, Peter

    2012-01-01

    Quality assurance and evidence in career guidance in Europe are often seen as self-evident approaches, but particular interests lie behind......Quality assurance and evidence in career guidance in Europe are often seen as self-evident approaches, but particular interests lie behind...

  8. Toward a Transdisciplinary Model of Evidence-Based Practice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Satterfield, Jason M; Spring, Bonnie; Brownson, Ross C; Mullen, Edward J; Newhouse, Robin P; Walker, Barbara B; Whitlock, Evelyn P

    2009-01-01

    Context This article describes the historical context and current developments in evidence-based practice (EBP) for medicine, nursing, psychology, social work, and public health, as well as the evolution of the seminal “three circles” model of evidence-based medicine, highlighting changes in EBP content, processes, and philosophies across disciplines. Methods The core issues and challenges in EBP are identified by comparing and contrasting EBP models across various health disciplines. Then a unified, transdisciplinary EBP model is presented, drawing on the strengths and compensating for the weaknesses of each discipline. Findings Common challenges across disciplines include (1) how “evidence” should be defined and comparatively weighted; (2) how and when the patient's and/or other contextual factors should enter the clinical decision-making process; (3) the definition and role of the “expert”; and (4) what other variables should be considered when selecting an evidence-based practice, such as age, social class, community resources, and local expertise. Conclusions A unified, transdisciplinary EBP model would address historical shortcomings by redefining the contents of each model circle, clarifying the practitioner's expertise and competencies, emphasizing shared decision making, and adding both environmental and organizational contexts. Implications for academia, practice, and policy also are discussed. PMID:19523122

  9. Association between diastolic blood pressure and cumulative work time

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ricardo Cordeiro

    1999-01-01

    Full Text Available Diastolic blood pressure was viewed as a generic indicator of aging, and its association with cumulative work time was studied after controlling for age as a potential confounding factor. The study was conducted among production line workers at a Brazilian tannery in July 1993. The association between diastolic blood pressure and cumulative work time was verified by fitting a second-order linear regression model, where diastolic blood pressure was a function of worker's age and cumulative work time. By fitting the model, one can predict that, in the beginning of working life at the tannery, on average each 1-year period is associated with an increase of about 1.5 mmHg in diastolic blood pressure. The fit obtained highlights one component directly associated with work as part of the rate of pressure increase in the study group. This component is twice as high as that directly associated with age.

  10. Session: What do we know about cumulative or population impacts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kerlinger, Paul; Manville, Al; Kendall, Bill

    2004-09-01

    This session at the Wind Energy and Birds/Bats workshop consisted of a panel discussion followed by a discussion/question and answer period. The panelists were Paul Kerlinger, Curry and Kerlinger, LLC, Al Manville, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, and Bill Kendall, US Geological Service. The panel addressed the potential cumulative impacts of wind turbines on bird and bat populations over time. Panel members gave brief presentations that touched on what is currently known, what laws apply, and the usefulness of population modeling. Topics addressed included which sources of modeling should be included in cumulative impacts, comparison of impacts from different modes of energy generation, as well as what research is still needed regarding cumulative impacts of wind energy development on bird and bat populations.

  11. Cumulant dynamics in a finite population linkage equilibrium theory

    CERN Document Server

    Rattray, M; Rattray, Magnus; Shapiro, Jonathan L.

    1999-01-01

    The evolution of a finite population at linkage equilibrium is described in terms of the dynamics of phenotype distribution cumulants. This provides a powerful method for describing evolutionary transients and we elucidate the relationship between the cumulant dynamics and the diffusion approximation. A separation of time-scales between the first and higher cumulants for low mutation rates is demonstrated in the diffusion limit and provides a significant simplification of the dynamical system. However, the diffusion limit may not be appropriate for strong selection as the standard Fisher-Wright model of genetic drift can break down in this case. Two novel examples of this effect are considered: we shown that the dynamics may depend on the number of loci under strong directional selection and that environmental variance results in a reduced effective population size. We also consider a simple model of a changing environment which cannot be described by a diffusion equation and we derive the optimal mutation ra...

  12. Cumulative Advantage and Success-Breeds-Success: The Value of Time Pattern Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huber, John C.

    1998-01-01

    For the case of the distribution of papers across authors, the Success-Breeds-Success or Cumulative Advantage model is a popular candidate for informetrics. The method of time pattern of publication for individual authors can be used to discriminate between Cumulative Advantage and non-uniform giftedness models. The non-uniform giftedness model is…

  13. The selective neuronal nitric oxide synthase inhibitor 7-nitroindazole has acute analgesic but not cumulative effects in a rat model of peripheral neuropathy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Henry JL

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Liliane J Dableh, James L HenryDepartment of Psychiatry and Behavioural Neurosciences, McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario, CanadaAbstract: Chronic neuropathic pain that may arise from various nerve injuries or insults remains notoriously difficult to manage. The neuronal isoform of the enzyme nitric oxide synthase (nNOS has been shown to be involved in the spinal transmission of nociception in animal models of chronic pain. The aim of this study is to evaluate the effect of single dose and repeated administration of a selective nNOS inhibitor. Rats were unilaterally implanted with a 2-mm polyethylene cuff around the sciatic nerve. Paw withdrawal thresholds were measured using von Frey filament stimulation. Rats were given 10, 20, or 30 mg/kg of 7-nitroindazole (7-NI, or vehicle, on days 2, 5, and 7 after model induction, respectively. Paw withdrawal thresholds were measured before and at 30 and 60 min after injection. 7-NI significantly increased paw withdrawal thresholds at 60 min at the 20 and 30 mg/kg dosages. In the second part of this study, rats were given 20 mg/kg 7-NI daily for five days starting immediately after cuff implantation (days 0 to 4, and the cuff was removed on day 4. Withdrawal thresholds were measured intermittently over a 24-day observation period. No differences in withdrawal thresholds were observed between drug and vehicle-treated rats. Therefore, early and repeated administration of 7-NI did not affect the development or progression of the model. In conclusion, inhibition of nNOS had an analgesic but not a pre-emptive effect in this model of peripheral neuropathic pain.Keywords: neuronal nitric oxide synthase, nitric oxide, 7-nitroindazole, neuropathic pain, peripheral nerve injury, nociception 

  14. Cumulate Fragments in Silicic Ignimbrites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bachmann, O.; Ellis, B. S.; Wolff, J.

    2014-12-01

    Increasingly, studies are concluding that silicic ignimbrites are the result of the amalgamation of multiple discrete magma batches. Yet the existence of discrete batches presents a conundrum for magma generation and storage; if silicic magma batches are not generated nearly in situ in the upper crust, they must traverse, and reside within, a thermally hostile environment with large temperature gradients, resulting in low survivability in their shallow magmatic hearths. The Snake River Plain (Idaho, USA) is a type example of this 'multi-batch' assembly with ignimbrites containing multiple populations of pyroxene crystals, glass shards, and crystal aggregates. The ubiquitous crystal aggregates hint at a mechanism to facilitate the existence of multiple, relatively small batches of rhyolite in the upper crust. These aggregates contain the same plagioclase, pyroxene, and oxide mineral compositions as single phenocrysts of the same minerals in their host rocks, but they have significantly less silicic bulk compositions and lack quartz and sanidine, which occur as single phenocrysts in the deposits. This implies significant crystallization followed by melt extraction from mushy reservoir margins. The extracted melt then continues to evolve (crystallizing sanidine and quartz) while the melt-depleted margins provide an increasingly rigid and refractory network segregating the crystal-poor batches of magma. The hot, refractory, margins insulate the crystal-poor lenses, allowing (1) extended residence in the upper crust, and (2) preservation of chemical heterogeneities among batches. In contrast, systems that produce cumulates richer in low-temperature phases (quartz, K-feldspars, and/or biotite) favour remelting upon recharge, leading to less segregation of eruptible melt pockets and the formation of gradationally zoned ignimbrites. The occurrence of similar crystal aggregates from a variety of magmatic lineages suggests the generality of this process.

  15. Latino Mothers' Cumulative Food Insecurity Exposure and Child Body Composition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hernandez, Daphne C

    2016-01-01

    To document whether an intergenerational transmission of food insecurity is occurring by assessing low-income foreign-born Latino mothers' experiences with food insecurity as none, once (either childhood or adulthood) or twice (during both childhood and adulthood). Also the association between maternal cumulative food insecurity and children's body composition was examined. Maternal self-reported surveys on retrospective measures of food insecurity during childhood, current measures of food insecurity, and demographics were collected from Houston-area community centers (N = 96). Children's body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC) were directly assessed. Covariate-adjusted logistic regression models analyzed the association between cumulative food insecurity experiences and children's body composition. Fifty-eight percent of mothers experienced food insecurity both as a child and as an adult and 31% of the mothers experienced food insecurity either as a child or adult. Maternal cumulative exposure to food insecurity was unrelated to BMI but was negatively related to elevated WC. Although an intergenerational transmission of food insecurity does exist, maternal cumulative exposure to food insecurity does not impact children's body composition negatively in the short term. Studying the long-term effects of cumulative food insecurity exposure can provide information for the development and timing of obesity interventions.

  16. Evidence-based models of care for people with epilepsy.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Fitzsimons, Mary

    2012-02-01

    Advances in medical science and technology, together with improved medical and nursing care, are continuously improving health outcomes in chronic illness, including epilepsy. The consequent increasing diagnostic and therapeutic complexity is placing a burgeoning strain on health care systems. In response, an international move to transform chronic disease management (CDM) aims to optimize the quality and safety of care while containing health care costs. CDM models recommend: integration of care across organizational boundaries that is supported with information and communication technology; patient self-management; and guideline implementation to promote standardized care. Evidence of the effectiveness of CDM models in epilepsy care is presented in this review article.

  17. Hydrolytic Cleavage Products of Globin Adducts in Urine as Possible Biomarkers of Cumulative Dose: Proof of Concept Using Styrene Oxide as a Model Adduct-Forming Compound.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mráz, Jaroslav; Hanzlíková, Iveta; Moulisová, Alena; Dušková, Šárka; Hejl, Kamil; Bednářová, Aneta; Dabrowská, Ludmila; Linhart, Igor

    2016-04-18

    A new experimental model was designed to study the fate of globin adducts with styrene 7,8-oxide (SO), a metabolic intermediate of styrene and a model electrophilic compound. Rat erythrocytes were incubated with SO at 7 or 22 °C. Levels of specific amino acid adducts in globin were determined by LC/MS analysis of the globin hydrolysate, and erythrocytes with known adduct content were administered intravenously to recipient rats. The course of adduct elimination from the rat blood was measured over the following 50 days. In the erythrocytes incubated at 22 °C, a rapid decline in the adduct levels on the first day post-transfusion followed by a slow phase of elimination was observed. In contrast, the adduct elimination in erythrocytes incubated at 7 °C was nearly linear, copying elimination of intact erythrocytes. In the urine of recipient rats, regioisomeric SO adducts at cysteine, valine, lysine, and histidine in the form of amino acid adducts and/or their acetylated metabolites as well as SO-dipeptide adducts were identified by LC/MS supported by synthesized reference standards. S-(2-Hydroxy-1-phenylethyl)cysteine and S-(2-hydroxy-2-phenylethyl)cysteine, the most abundant globin adducts, were excreted predominantly in the form of the corresponding urinary mercapturic acids (HPEMAs). Massive elimination of HPEMAs via urine occurred within the first day from the erythrocytes incubated at both 7 and 22 °C. However, erythrocytes incubated at 7 °C also showed a slow second phase of elimination such that HPEMAs were detected in urine up to 50 days post-transfusion. These results indicate for the first time that globin adducts can be cleaved in vivo to modified amino acids and dipeptides. The cleavage products and/or their predictable metabolites are excreted in urine over the whole life span of erythrocytes. Some of the urinary adducts may represent a new type of noninvasive biomarker for exposure to adduct-forming chemicals.

  18. Cumulative human impacts on marine predators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Maxwell, Sara M; Hazen, Elliott L; Bograd, Steven J

    2013-01-01

    Stressors associated with human activities interact in complex ways to affect marine ecosystems, yet we lack spatially explicit assessments of cumulative impacts on ecologically and economically key components such as marine predators. Here we develop a metric of cumulative utilization and impact...

  19. Cumulative pion production via successive collisions in nuclear medium

    CERN Document Server

    Motornenko, A

    2016-01-01

    Production of pions in proton-nucleus (p+A) reactions outside of a kinematical boundary of proton-nucleon collisions, the so-called cumulative effect, is studied. The kinematical restrictions on pions emitted in backward direction in the target rest frame are analyzed. It is shown that cumulative pion production requires a presence of massive baryonic resonances that are produced during successive collisions of projectile with nuclear nucleons. After each successive collision the mass of created resonance may increase and, simultaneously, its longitudinal velocity decreases. Simulations within Ultra relativistic Quantum Molecular Dynamics model reveals that successive collisions of baryonic resonances with nuclear nucleons plays the dominant role in cumulative pion production in p+A reactions.

  20. Effect of correlation on cumulants in heavy-ion collisions

    CERN Document Server

    Mishra, D K; Netrakanti, P K

    2015-01-01

    We study the effects of correlation on cumulants and their ratios of net-proton multiplicity distribution which have been measured for central (0-5\\%) Au+Au collisions at Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider (RHIC). This effect has been studied assuming individual proton and anti-proton distributions as Poisson or Negative Binomial Distribution (NBD). In-spite of significantly correlated production due to baryon number, electric charge conservation and kinematical correlations of protons and anti-protons, the measured cumulants of net-proton distribution follow the independent production model. In the present work we demonstrate how the introduction of correlations will affect the cumulants and their ratios for the difference distributions. We have also demonstrated this study using the proton and anti-proton distributions obtained from HIJING event generator.

  1. Current Scientific Evidence for a Polarized Cardiovascular Endurance Training Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hydren, Jay R; Cohen, Bruce S

    2015-12-01

    Recent publications have provided new scientific evidence for a modern aerobic or cardiovascular endurance exercise prescription that optimizes the periodization cycle and maximizes potential endurance performance gains in highly trained individuals. The traditional threshold, high volume, and high-intensity training models have displayed limited improvement in actual race pace in (highly) trained individuals while frequently resulting in overreaching or overtraining (physical injury and psychological burnout). A review of evidence for replacing these models with the proven polarized training model seems warranted. This review provides a short history of the training models, summarizes 5 key studies, and provides example training programs for both the pre- and in-season periods. A polarized training program is characterized by an undulating nonlinear periodization model with nearly all the training time spent at a "light" (≤13) and "very hard" (≥17) pace with very limited time at "hard" (14-16) or race pace (6-20 Rating of Perceived Exertion [RPE] scale). To accomplish this, the polarization training model has specific high-intensity workouts separated by one or more long slow distance workouts, with the exercise intensity remaining below ventilatory threshold (VT) 1 and/or blood lactate of less than 2 mM (A.K.A. below race pace). Effect sizes for increasing aerobic endurance performance for the polarized training model are consistently superior to that of the threshold training model. Performing a polarized training program may be best accomplished by: going easy on long slow distance workouts, avoiding "race pace" and getting after it during interval workouts.

  2. A Parametric Cumulative Sum Statistic for Person Fit

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armstrong, Ronald D.; Shi, Min

    2009-01-01

    This article develops a new cumulative sum (CUSUM) statistic to detect aberrant item response behavior. Shifts in behavior are modeled with quadratic functions and a series of likelihood ratio tests are used to detect aberrancy. The new CUSUM statistic is compared against another CUSUM approach as well as traditional person-fit statistics. A…

  3. Hierarchical Bayesian parameter estimation for cumulative prospect theory

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nilsson, H.; Rieskamp, J.; Wagenmakers, E.-J.

    2011-01-01

    Cumulative prospect theory (CPT Tversky & Kahneman, 1992) has provided one of the most influential accounts of how people make decisions under risk. CPT is a formal model with parameters that quantify psychological processes such as loss aversion, subjective values of gains and losses, and

  4. A Parametric Cumulative Sum Statistic for Person Fit

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armstrong, Ronald D.; Shi, Min

    2009-01-01

    This article develops a new cumulative sum (CUSUM) statistic to detect aberrant item response behavior. Shifts in behavior are modeled with quadratic functions and a series of likelihood ratio tests are used to detect aberrancy. The new CUSUM statistic is compared against another CUSUM approach as well as traditional person-fit statistics. A…

  5. A comparison of peak vs cumulative physical work exposure risk factors for the reporting of low back pain in the automotive industry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norman, R.; Wells, R.; Neumann, P.; Frank, J.; Shannon, H.; Kerr, M.

    1998-12-01

    OBJECTIVE: To determine the relative importance of modelled peak spine loads, hand loads, trunk kinematics and cumulative spine loads as predictors of reported low back pain (LBP). BACKGROUND: The authors have recently shown that both biomechemical and psychosocial variables are important in the reporting of LBP. In previous studies, peak spinal load risk factors have been identified and while there is in vitro evidence for adverse effects of excessive cumulative load on tissue, there is little epidemiological evidence. METHODS: Physical exposures to peak and cumulative lumbar spine moment, compression and shear forces, trunk kinematics, and forces on hands were analyzed on 130 randomly selected controls and 104 cases. Univariable and multivariable odds ratios of the risk of reporting were calculated from a backwards logistic regression analysis. Interrelationships among variables were examined by factor analysis. RESULTS: Cases showed significantly higher loading on all biomechanical variables. Four independent risk factors were identified: integrated lumbar moment (over a shift), 'usual' hand force, peak shear force at the level of L(4)/L(5) and peak trunk velocity. Substituting lumbar compression or moment for shear did not appreciably alter odds ratios because of high correlations among these variables. CONCLUSIONS: Cumulative biomechanical variables are important risk factors in the reporting of LBP. Spinal tissue loading estimates from a biomechanical model provide information not included in the trunk kinematics and hand force inputs to the model alone. Workers in the top 25% of loading exposure on all risk factors are at about six times the risk of reporting LBP when compared with those in the bottom 25%. RELEVANCE: Primary prevention, treatment, and return to work efforts for individuals reporting LBP all require understanding of risk factors. The results suggest that cumulative loading of the low back is important etiologically and highlight the need for

  6. Cumulative Interarrival Time Distributions of Freeway Entrance Ramp Traffic for Traffic Simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erdinç Öner

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Cumulative interarrival time (IAT distributions for signalized and non-signalized freeway entrance ramps were developed to be used in digital computer traffic simulation models. The data from four different non-signalized entrance ramps (three ramps with a single lane, one ramp with two lanes and two different signalized entrance ramps (both with a single lane were used for developing the cumulative IAT distributions. The cumulative IAT distributions for the signalized and non-signalized entrance ramps were compared with each other and with the cumulative IAT distributions of the lanes for freeways. The comparative results showed that the cumulative IAT distributions for non-signalized entrance ramps are very close to the leftmost lane of a 3-lane freeway where the maximum absolute difference between the cumulative IAT distribution of the leftmost lane of a 3-lane freeway and the entrance ramps cumulative IAT distribution was 3%. The cumulative IAT distribution for the signalized entrance ramps was found to be different from the non-signalized entrance ramp cumulative IAT distribution. The approximated cumulative IAT distributions for signalized and non-signalized entrance ramp traffic for any hourly traffic volume from a few vehicles/hour up to 2,500 vehicles/hour can be obtained at http://www.ohio.edu/orite/research/uitds.cfm.

  7. Revitalising the evidence base for public health: an assets model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morgan, Antony; Ziglio, Erio

    2007-01-01

    Historically, approaches to the promotion of population health have been based on a deficit model. That is, they tend to focus on identifying the problems and needs of populations that require professional resources and high levels of dependence on hospital and welfare services. These deficit models are important and necessary to identify levels of needs and priorities. But they need to be complemented by some other perspectives as they have some drawbacks. Deficit models tend to define communities and individuals in negative terms, disregarding what is positive and works well in particular populations. In contrast 'assets' models tend to accentuate positive capability to identify problems and activate solutions. They focus on promoting salutogenic resources that promote the self esteem and coping abilities of individuals and communities, eventually leading to less dependency on professional services. Much of the evidence available to policy makers to inform decisions about the most effective approaches to promoting health and to tackling health inequities is based on a deficit model and this may disproportionately lead to policies and practices which disempower the populations and communities who are supposed to benefit from them. An assets approach to health and development embraces a 'salutogenic' notion of health creation and in doing so encourages the full participation of local communities in the health development process. The asset model presented here aims to revitalise how policy makers, researchers and practitioners think and act to promote a more resourceful approach to tackling health inequities. The model outlines a systematic approach to asset based public health which can provide scientific evidence and best practice on how to maximise the stock of key assets necessary for promoting health. Redressing the balance between the assets and deficit models for evidence based public health could help us to unlock some of the existing barriers to effective

  8. Spatial correlations in bed load transport: evidence, importance, and modelling

    CERN Document Server

    Heyman, J; Mettra, F; Ancey, C

    2016-01-01

    This article examines the spatial {dynamics of bed load particles} in water. We focus particularly on the fluctuations of particle activity, which is defined as the number of moving particles per unit bed {length}. Based on a stochastic model recently proposed by \\citet{Ancey2013}, we derive the second moment of particle activity analytically; that is the spatial correlation functions of particle activity. From these expressions, we show that large moving particle clusters can develop spatially. Also, we provide evidence that fluctuations of particle activity are scale-dependent. Two characteristic lengths emerge from the model: a saturation length $\\ell_{sat}$ describing the length needed for a perturbation in particle activity to relax to the homogeneous solution, and a correlation length $\\ell_c$ describing the typical size of moving particle clusters. A dimensionless P\\'eclet number can also be defined according to the transport model. Three different experimental data sets are used to test the theoretica...

  9. Evidence-based ergonomics: a model and conceptual structure proposal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silveira, Dierci Marcio

    2012-01-01

    In Human Factors and Ergonomics Science (HFES), it is difficult to identify what is the best approach to tackle the workplace and systems design problems which needs to be solved, and it has been also advocated as transdisciplinary and multidisciplinary the issue of "How to solve the human factors and ergonomics problems that are identified?". The proposition on this study is to combine the theoretical approach for Sustainability Science, the Taxonomy of the Human Factors and Ergonomics (HFE) discipline and the framework for Evidence-Based Medicine in an attempt to be applied in Human Factors and Ergonomics. Applications of ontologies are known in the field of medical research and computer science. By scrutinizing the key requirements for the HFES structuring of knowledge, it was designed a reference model, First, it was identified the important requirements for HFES Concept structuring, as regarded by Meister. Second, it was developed an evidence-based ergonomics framework as a reference model composed of six levels based on these requirements. Third, it was devised a mapping tool using linguistic resources to translate human work, systems environment and the complexities inherent to their hierarchical relationships to support future development at Level 2 of the reference model and for meeting the two major challenges for HFES, namely, identifying what problems should be addressed in HFE as an Autonomous Science itself and proposing solutions by integrating concepts and methods applied in HFES for those problems.

  10. Cumulative Damage Model for Advanced Composite Materials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1982-07-01

    ultimately used an exponential in the present example for added simplicity) and we norma - lize the function so that it becomes the modifier that determines...Testing and Design (Second Conference), ASTM STP 497, ASTM (1972) pp. 170-188. 5. Halpin, J. C., et al., "Characterization of Composites for the...Graphite Epoxy Composites," Proc. Symposium on Composite Materials: Testing and Design, ASTM , (Ma’rch 20, 1978) New Orleans, LA. 18. Hashin, Z. and Rotem

  11. Variable cultural acquisition costs constrain cumulative cultural evolution.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alex Mesoudi

    Full Text Available One of the hallmarks of the human species is our capacity for cumulative culture, in which beneficial knowledge and technology is accumulated over successive generations. Yet previous analyses of cumulative cultural change have failed to consider the possibility that as cultural complexity accumulates, it becomes increasingly costly for each new generation to acquire from the previous generation. In principle this may result in an upper limit on the cultural complexity that can be accumulated, at which point accumulated knowledge is so costly and time-consuming to acquire that further innovation is not possible. In this paper I first review existing empirical analyses of the history of science and technology that support the possibility that cultural acquisition costs may constrain cumulative cultural evolution. I then present macroscopic and individual-based models of cumulative cultural evolution that explore the consequences of this assumption of variable cultural acquisition costs, showing that making acquisition costs vary with cultural complexity causes the latter to reach an upper limit above which no further innovation can occur. These models further explore the consequences of different cultural transmission rules (directly biased, indirectly biased and unbiased transmission, population size, and cultural innovations that themselves reduce innovation or acquisition costs.

  12. Likelihood ratio model for classification of forensic evidence

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zadora, G., E-mail: gzadora@ies.krakow.pl [Institute of Forensic Research, Westerplatte 9, 31-033 Krakow (Poland); Neocleous, T., E-mail: tereza@stats.gla.ac.uk [University of Glasgow, Department of Statistics, 15 University Gardens, Glasgow G12 8QW (United Kingdom)

    2009-05-29

    One of the problems of analysis of forensic evidence such as glass fragments, is the determination of their use-type category, e.g. does a glass fragment originate from an unknown window or container? Very small glass fragments arise during various accidents and criminal offences, and could be carried on the clothes, shoes and hair of participants. It is therefore necessary to obtain information on their physicochemical composition in order to solve the classification problem. Scanning Electron Microscopy coupled with an Energy Dispersive X-ray Spectrometer and the Glass Refractive Index Measurement method are routinely used in many forensic institutes for the investigation of glass. A natural form of glass evidence evaluation for forensic purposes is the likelihood ratio-LR = p(E|H{sub 1})/p(E|H{sub 2}). The main aim of this paper was to study the performance of LR models for glass object classification which considered one or two sources of data variability, i.e. between-glass-object variability and(or) within-glass-object variability. Within the proposed model a multivariate kernel density approach was adopted for modelling the between-object distribution and a multivariate normal distribution was adopted for modelling within-object distributions. Moreover, a graphical method of estimating the dependence structure was employed to reduce the highly multivariate problem to several lower-dimensional problems. The performed analysis showed that the best likelihood model was the one which allows to include information about between and within-object variability, and with variables derived from elemental compositions measured by SEM-EDX, and refractive values determined before (RI{sub b}) and after (RI{sub a}) the annealing process, in the form of dRI = log{sub 10}|RI{sub a} - RI{sub b}|. This model gave better results than the model with only between-object variability considered. In addition, when dRI and variables derived from elemental compositions were used, this

  13. Cumulative risk effects for the development of behaviour difficulties in children and adolescents with special educational needs and disabilities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oldfield, Jeremy; Humphrey, Neil; Hebron, Judith

    2015-01-01

    Research has identified multiple risk factors for the development of behaviour difficulties. What have been less explored are the cumulative effects of exposure to multiple risks on behavioural outcomes, with no study specifically investigating these effects within a population of young people with special educational needs and disabilities (SEND). Furthermore, it is unclear whether a threshold or linear risk model better fits the data for this population. The sample included 2660 children and 1628 adolescents with SEND. Risk factors associated with increases in behaviour difficulties over an 18-month period were summed to create a cumulative risk score, with this explanatory variable being added into a multi-level model. A quadratic term was then added to test the threshold model. There was evidence of a cumulative risk effect, suggesting that exposure to higher numbers of risk factors, regardless of their exact nature, resulted in increased behaviour difficulties. The relationship between risk and behaviour difficulties was non-linear, with exposure to increasing risk having a disproportionate and detrimental impact on behaviour difficulties in child and adolescent models. Interventions aimed at reducing behaviour difficulties need to consider the impact of multiple risk variables. Tailoring interventions towards those exposed to large numbers of risks would be advantageous.

  14. Cumulative cultural learning: Development and diversity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Legare, Cristine H

    2017-07-24

    The complexity and variability of human culture is unmatched by any other species. Humans live in culturally constructed niches filled with artifacts, skills, beliefs, and practices that have been inherited, accumulated, and modified over generations. A causal account of the complexity of human culture must explain its distinguishing characteristics: It is cumulative and highly variable within and across populations. I propose that the psychological adaptations supporting cumulative cultural transmission are universal but are sufficiently flexible to support the acquisition of highly variable behavioral repertoires. This paper describes variation in the transmission practices (teaching) and acquisition strategies (imitation) that support cumulative cultural learning in childhood. Examining flexibility and variation in caregiver socialization and children's learning extends our understanding of evolution in living systems by providing insight into the psychological foundations of cumulative cultural transmission-the cornerstone of human cultural diversity.

  15. Calculating Cumulative Binomial-Distribution Probabilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scheuer, Ernest M.; Bowerman, Paul N.

    1989-01-01

    Cumulative-binomial computer program, CUMBIN, one of set of three programs, calculates cumulative binomial probability distributions for arbitrary inputs. CUMBIN, NEWTONP (NPO-17556), and CROSSER (NPO-17557), used independently of one another. Reliabilities and availabilities of k-out-of-n systems analyzed. Used by statisticians and users of statistical procedures, test planners, designers, and numerical analysts. Used for calculations of reliability and availability. Program written in C.

  16. Origin of path independence between cumulative CO2 emissions and global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seshadri, Ashwin K.

    2017-02-01

    Observations and GCMs exhibit approximate proportionality between cumulative carbon dioxide (CO2 ) emissions and global warming. Here we identify sufficient conditions for the relationship between cumulative CO2 emissions and global warming to be independent of the path of CO2 emissions; referred to as "path independence". Our starting point is a closed form expression for global warming in a two-box energy balance model (EBM), which depends explicitly on cumulative emissions, airborne fraction and time. Path independence requires that this function can be approximated as depending on cumulative emissions alone. We show that path independence arises from weak constraints, occurring if the timescale for changes in cumulative emissions (equal to ratio between cumulative emissions and emissions rate) is small compared to the timescale for changes in airborne fraction (which depends on CO2 uptake), and also small relative to a derived climate model parameter called the damping-timescale, which is related to the rate at which deep-ocean warming affects global warming. Effects of uncertainties in the climate model and carbon cycle are examined. Large deep-ocean heat capacity in the Earth system is not necessary for path independence, which appears resilient to climate modeling uncertainties. However long time-constants in the Earth system carbon cycle are essential, ensuring that airborne fraction changes slowly with timescale much longer than the timescale for changes in cumulative emissions. Therefore path independence between cumulative emissions and warming cannot arise for short-lived greenhouse gases.

  17. Asymptotic growth of cumulative and regenerative beam break-up instabilities in accelerators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, Y. Y.

    1988-06-01

    It is found that the asymptotic growth of the cumulative beam break up instability is independent of the focusing magnetic field, according to the model of Panofsky and Bander. The analysis is extended to include the transition from the cumulative to the regenerative type, both in the presence and absence of a focusing magnetic field.

  18. Human cumulative culture: a comparative perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dean, Lewis G; Vale, Gill L; Laland, Kevin N; Flynn, Emma; Kendal, Rachel L

    2014-05-01

    Many animals exhibit social learning and behavioural traditions, but human culture exhibits unparalleled complexity and diversity, and is unambiguously cumulative in character. These similarities and differences have spawned a debate over whether animal traditions and human culture are reliant on homologous or analogous psychological processes. Human cumulative culture combines high-fidelity transmission of cultural knowledge with beneficial modifications to generate a 'ratcheting' in technological complexity, leading to the development of traits far more complex than one individual could invent alone. Claims have been made for cumulative culture in several species of animals, including chimpanzees, orangutans and New Caledonian crows, but these remain contentious. Whilst initial work on the topic of cumulative culture was largely theoretical, employing mathematical methods developed by population biologists, in recent years researchers from a wide range of disciplines, including psychology, biology, economics, biological anthropology, linguistics and archaeology, have turned their attention to the experimental investigation of cumulative culture. We review this literature, highlighting advances made in understanding the underlying processes of cumulative culture and emphasising areas of agreement and disagreement amongst investigators in separate fields.

  19. Effective Carrier Sensing in CSMA Networks under Cumulative Interference

    CERN Document Server

    Fu, Liqun; Huang, Jianwei

    2009-01-01

    This paper proposes and investigates the concept of a safe carrier-sensing range that can guarantee interference safe (also termed hidden-node-free) transmissions in CSMA networks under the cumulative interference model. Compared with the safe carrier-sensing range under the commonly assumed but less realistic pairwise interference model, we show that the safe carrier-sensing range required under the cumulative interference model is larger by a constant multiplicative factor. The concept of a safe carrier-sensing range, although amenable to elegant analytical results, is inherently not compatible with the conventional power threshold carrier-sensing mechanism (e.g., that used in IEEE 802.11). Specifically, the absolute power sensed by a node in the conventional mechanism does not contain enough information for it to derive its distances from other concurrent transmitter nodes. We show that, fortunately, a carrier-sensing mechanism called Incremental-Power Carrier-Sensing (IPCS) can realize the carrier-sensing...

  20. Assessing the implications of human land-use change for the transient climate response to cumulative carbon emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simmons, C. T.; Matthews, H. D.

    2016-03-01

    Recent research has shown evidence of a linear climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions, which implies that the source, timing, and amount of emissions does not significantly influence the climate response per unit emission. Furthermore, these analyses have generally assumed that the climate response to land-use CO2 emissions is equivalent to that of fossil fuels under the assumption that, once in the atmosphere, the radiative forcing induced by CO2 is not sensitive to the emissions source. However, land-cover change also affects surface albedo and the strength of terrestrial carbon sinks, both of which have an additional climate effect. In this study, we use a coupled climate-carbon cycle model to assess the climate response to historical and future cumulative land-use CO2 emissions, in order to compare it to the response to fossil fuel CO2. We find that when we isolate the CO2-induced (biogeochemical) temperature changes associated with land-use change, then the climate response to cumulative land-use emissions is equivalent to that of fossil fuel CO2. We show further that the globally-averaged albedo-induced biophysical cooling from land-use change is non-negligible and may be of comparable magnitude to the biogeochemical warming, with the result that the net climate response to land-use change is substantially different from a linear response to cumulative emissions. However, our new simulations suggest that the biophysical cooling from land-use change follows its own independent (negative) linear response to cumulative net land-use CO2 emissions, which may provide a useful scaling factor for certain applications when evaluating the full transient climate response to emissions.

  1. Personality and Depression: Explanatory Models and Review of the Evidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klein, Daniel N.; Kotov, Roman; Bufferd, Sara J.

    2012-01-01

    Understanding the association between personality and depression has implications for elucidating etiology and comorbidity, identifying at-risk individuals, and tailoring treatment. We discuss seven major models that have been proposed to explain the relation between personality and depression, and we review key methodological issues, including study design, the heterogeneity of mood disorders, and the assessment of personality. We then selectively review the extensive empirical literature on the role of personality traits in depression in adults and children. Current evidence suggests that depression is linked to traits such as neuroticism/negative emotionality, extraversion/positive emotionality, and conscientiousness. Moreover, personality characteristics appear to contribute to the onset and course of depression through a variety of pathways. Implications for prevention and prediction of treatment response are discussed, as well as specific considerations to guide future research on the relation between personality and depression. PMID:21166535

  2. Behavioural, modeling, and electrophysiological evidence for supramodality in human metacognition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faivre, Nathan; Filevich, Elisa; Solovey, Guillermo; Kühn, Simone; Blanke, Olaf

    2017-09-15

    Human metacognition, or the capacity to introspect on one's own mental states, has been mostly characterized through confidence reports in visual tasks. A pressing question is to what extent results from visual studies generalize to other domains. Answering this question allows determining whether metacognition operates through shared, supramodal mechanisms, or through idiosyncratic, modality-specific mechanisms. Here, we report three new lines of evidence for decisional and post-decisional mechanisms arguing for the supramodality of metacognition. First, metacognitive efficiency correlated between auditory, tactile, visual, and audiovisual tasks. Second, confidence in an audiovisual task was best modeled using supramodal formats based on integrated representations of auditory and visual signals. Third, confidence in correct responses involved similar electrophysiological markers for visual and audiovisual tasks that are associated with motor preparation preceding the perceptual judgment. We conclude that the supramodality of metacognition relies on supramodal confidence estimates and decisional signals that are shared across sensory modalities.SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENTMetacognitive monitoring is the capacity to access, report and regulate one's own mental states. In perception, this allows rating our confidence in what we have seen, heard or touched. While metacognitive monitoring can operate on different cognitive domains, we ignore whether it involves a single supramodal mechanism common to multiple cognitive domains, or modality-specific mechanisms idiosyncratic to each domain. Here, we bring evidence in favor of the supramodality hypothesis by showing that participants with high metacognitive performance in one modality are likely to perform well in other modalities. Based on computational modeling and electrophysiology, we propose that supramodality can be explained by the existence of supramodal confidence estimates, and by the influence of decisional cues on

  3. Evidence of Oxidative Stress in Autism Derived from Animal Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xue Ming

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Autism is a pervasive neurodevelopmental disorder that leads to deficits in social interaction, communication and restricted, repetitive motor movements. Autism is a highly heritable disorder, however, there is mounting evidence to suggest that toxicant-induced oxidative stress may play a role. The focus of this article will be to review our animal model of autism and discuss our evidence that oxidative stress may be a common underlying mechanism of neurodevelopmental damage. We have shown that mice exposed to either methylmercury (MeHg or valproic acid (VPA in early postnatal life display aberrant social, cognitive and motor behavior. Interestingly, early exposure to both compounds has been clinically implicated in the development of autism. We recently found that Trolox, a water-soluble vitamin E derivative, is capable of attenuating a number of neurobehavioral alterations observed in mice postnatally exposed to MeHg. In addition, a number of other investigators have shown that oxidative stress plays a role in neural injury following MeHg exposure both in vitro and in vivo. New data presented here will show that VPA-induced neurobehavioral deficits are attenuated by vitamin E as well and that the level of glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP, a marker of astrocytic neural injury, is altered following VPA exposure. Collectively, these data indicate that vitamin E and its derivative are capable of protecting against neurobehavioral deficits induced by both MeHg and VPA. This antioxidant protection suggests that oxidative stress may be a common mechanism of injury leading to aberrant behavior in both our animal model as well as in the human disease state.

  4. Analysis on Influent Factors Affecting Vocational School Students' Mathematics Learning Based on Cumulative Logistic Model%职校生数学成绩影响因素的累积LOGISTIC模型分析

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张旭; 刘玉春; 杨志红; 霍素凤

    2012-01-01

    利用累积Logistic模型对影响职校生数学成绩的因素进行了实证分析,研究结论显示,影响职校生数学成绩的主要因素是学生的计算能力、学习主动性以及家长对学生学习的关注,这与职业学校生源的复杂性和职业学校数学教育的特殊性有关.ROC分析表明,利用计算能力、学习主动性、家长的关注三个因素诊断学生数学成绩是合适的,提示教师要特别关注学生计算能力、学习能力的培养,督促家长关注孩子的学习.%Cumulative Logistic model is introduced to analyze influent factors impacting vocational school students' math learning. Results show that ability to calculate,active learning and concern of parents are major factors affecting vocational school students' math learning,it is related to the complexity of students and the special nature of math education in vocational schools. ROC analysis shows that it is appropriate to use computing power of students,active learning and concern of parents to diagnose students' math scores,and suggests that teachers should pay special attention to train students' computing ability and learning ability,and urge parents to concern about children's learning.

  5. Cumulative dietary exposure of the population of Denmark to pesticides

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Bodil Hamborg; Petersen, Annette; Nielsen, Elsa

    2015-01-01

    We used the Hazard Index (HI) method to carry out a cumulative risk assessment after chronic dietary exposure to all monitored pesticides in fruit, vegetables and cereals for various consumer groups in Denmark. Residue data for all the pesticides were obtained from the Danish monitoring programme...... that included processing factors and set non-detects to ½ LOR, but limited the correction (Model 3), gave the most realistic exposure estimate. With Model 3 the HI was calculated to be 0.44 for children and 0.18 for adults, indicating that there is no risk of adverse health effects following chronic cumulative...... exposure to the pesticides found in fruit, vegetables and cereals on the Danish market. The HI was below 1 even for consumers who eat more than 550 g of fruit and vegetables per day, corresponding to 1/3 of the population. Choosing Danish-produced commodities whenever possible could reduce the HI...

  6. Cumulative risk: toxicity and interactions of physical and chemical stressors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rider, Cynthia V; Boekelheide, Kim; Catlin, Natasha; Gordon, Christopher J; Morata, Thais; Selgrade, Maryjane K; Sexton, Kenneth; Simmons, Jane Ellen

    2014-01-01

    Recent efforts to update cumulative risk assessment procedures to incorporate nonchemical stressors ranging from physical to psychosocial reflect increased interest in consideration of the totality of variables affecting human health and the growing desire to develop community-based risk assessment methods. A key roadblock is the uncertainty as to how nonchemical stressors behave in relationship to chemical stressors. Physical stressors offer a reasonable starting place for measuring the effects of nonchemical stressors and their modulation of chemical effects (and vice versa), as they clearly differ from chemical stressors; and "doses" of many physical stressors are more easily quantifiable than those of psychosocial stressors. There is a commonly held belief that virtually nothing is known about the impact of nonchemical stressors on chemically mediated toxicity or the joint impact of coexposure to chemical and nonchemical stressors. Although this is generally true, there are several instances where a substantial body of evidence exists. A workshop titled "Cumulative Risk: Toxicity and Interactions of Physical and Chemical Stressors" held at the 2013 Society of Toxicology Annual Meeting provided a forum for discussion of research addressing the toxicity of physical stressors and what is known about their interactions with chemical stressors, both in terms of exposure and effects. Physical stressors including sunlight, heat, radiation, infectious disease, and noise were discussed in reference to identifying pathways of interaction with chemical stressors, data gaps, and suggestions for future incorporation into cumulative risk assessments.

  7. A small group learning model for evidence-based medicine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Al Achkar M

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Morhaf Al Achkar, M Kelly Davies Department of Family Medicine, Indiana University School of Medicine, Indianapolis, IN, USA Background: Evidence-based medicine (EBM skills are invaluable tools for residents and practicing physicians. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the effectiveness of small-group learning models in teaching fundamental EBM skills. Methods: The intervention consisted of an EBM bootcamp divided into four 2-hour sessions across 4-week rotations. Residents worked in small groups of three to four to explore fundamentals of EBM through interactive dialogue and mock clinical scenario practice. The intervention’s effectiveness was evaluated using pre- and post-assessments. Results: A total of 40 (93.0% residents out of a potential 43 participated in the EBM bootcamps across the 3 years. There was significant improvement of 3.28 points on self-assessed EBM skills from an average of 9.66–12.945 out of a maximum score of 15 (P=0.000. There was significant improvement of 1.68 points on the EBM skills test from an average of 6.02–7.71 out of a maximum score of 9 (P=0.00. All residents (100% agreed or strongly agreed that EBM is important for a physician’s clinical practice. This view did not change after the training. Conclusion: A brief small-group interactive workshop in EBM basic skills at the start of residency was effective in developing fundamental EBM skills. Keywords: evidence-based medicine, resident training, small group

  8. Cumulative Culture and Future Thinking: Is Mental Time Travel a Prerequisite to Cumulative Cultural Evolution?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vale, G. L.; Flynn, E. G.; Kendal, R. L.

    2012-01-01

    Cumulative culture denotes the, arguably, human capacity to build on the cultural behaviors of one's predecessors, allowing increases in cultural complexity to occur such that many of our cultural artifacts, products and technologies have progressed beyond what a single individual could invent alone. This process of cumulative cultural evolution…

  9. Cumulative Effect of Depression on Dementia Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Olazarán

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective. To analyze a potential cumulative effect of life-time depression on dementia and Alzheimer’s disease (AD, with control of vascular factors (VFs. Methods. This study was a subanalysis of the Neurological Disorders in Central Spain (NEDICES study. Past and present depression, VFs, dementia status, and dementia due to AD were documented at study inception. Dementia status was also documented after three years. Four groups were created according to baseline data: never depression (nD, past depression (pD, present depression (prD, and present and past depression (prpD. Logistic regression was used. Results. Data of 1,807 subjects were investigated at baseline (mean age 74.3, 59.3% women, and 1,376 (81.6% subjects were evaluated after three years. The prevalence of dementia at baseline was 6.7%, and dementia incidence was 6.3%. An effect of depression was observed on dementia prevalence (OR [CI 95%] 1.84 [1.01–3.35] for prD and 2.73 [1.08–6.87] for prpD, and on dementia due to AD (OR 1.98 [0.98–3.99] for prD and OR 3.98 [1.48–10.71] for prpD (fully adjusted models, nD as reference. Depression did not influence dementia incidence. Conclusions. Present depression and, particularly, present and past depression are associated with dementia at old age. Multiple mechanisms, including toxic effect of depression on hippocampal neurons, plausibly explain these associations.

  10. 4D Near-Field Source Localization Using Cumulant

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhao Feng

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a new cumulant-based algorithm to jointly estimate four-dimensional (4D source parameters of multiple near-field narrowband sources. Firstly, this approach proposes a new cross-array, and constructs five high-dimensional Toeplitz matrices using the fourth-order cumulants of some properly chosen sensor outputs; secondly, it forms a parallel factor (PARAFAC model in the cumulant domain using these matrices, and analyzes the unique low-rank decomposition of this model; thirdly, it jointly estimates the frequency, two-dimensional (2D directions-of-arrival (DOAs, and range of each near-field source from the matrices via the low-rank three-way array (TWA decomposition. In comparison with some available methods, the proposed algorithm, which efficiently makes use of the array aperture, can localize sources using sensors. In addition, it requires neither pairing parameters nor multidimensional search. Simulation results are presented to validate the performance of the proposed method.

  11. 4D Near-Field Source Localization Using Cumulant

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Junying Zhang

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a new cumulant-based algorithm to jointly estimate four-dimensional (4D source parameters of multiple near-field narrowband sources. Firstly, this approach proposes a new cross-array, and constructs five high-dimensional Toeplitz matrices using the fourth-order cumulants of some properly chosen sensor outputs; secondly, it forms a parallel factor (PARAFAC model in the cumulant domain using these matrices, and analyzes the unique low-rank decomposition of this model; thirdly, it jointly estimates the frequency, two-dimensional (2D directions-of-arrival (DOAs, and range of each near-field source from the matrices via the low-rank three-way array (TWA decomposition. In comparison with some available methods, the proposed algorithm, which efficiently makes use of the array aperture, can localize N−3 sources using N sensors. In addition, it requires neither pairing parameters nor multidimensional search. Simulation results are presented to validate the performance of the proposed method.

  12. Is cumulated pyrethroid exposure associated with prediabetes?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Martin Rune; Jørs, Erik; Lander, Flemming;

    2014-01-01

    , cumulative exposure) was assessed from questionnaire data. Participants were asked about symptoms of diabetes. Blood samples were analyzed for glycosylated hemoglobin (HbA1c), a measure of glucose regulation. No association was found between pyrethroid exposure and diabetes symptoms. The prevalence...

  13. Cumulative Disadvantage among the Highly Ambitious.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McClelland, Katherine

    1990-01-01

    Using a social reproduction theory framework, analyzes the process by which high school seniors aspiring to high-level positions are sorted out after graduation. Analyzes early educational attainments and changes in occupational expectations. Shows a process of cumulative disadvantage in which White males are more likely to achieve their goals.…

  14. Cumulative Disadvantage among the Highly Ambitious.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McClelland, Katherine

    1990-01-01

    Using a social reproduction theory framework, analyzes the process by which high school seniors aspiring to high-level positions are sorted out after graduation. Analyzes early educational attainments and changes in occupational expectations. Shows a process of cumulative disadvantage in which White males are more likely to achieve their goals.…

  15. The seemingly quixotic pursuit of a cumulative psychological science: introduction to the special issue.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curran, Patrick J

    2009-06-01

    The goal of any empirical science is to pursue the construction of a cumulative base of knowledge upon which the future of the science may be built. However, there is mixed evidence that the science of psychology can accurately be characterized by such a cumulative progression. Indeed, some argue that the development of a truly cumulative psychological science is not possible with the current paradigms of hypothesis testing in single-study designs. The author explores this controversy as a framework to introduce the 6 articles that make up this special issue on the integration of data and empirical findings across multiple studies. The author proposes that the methods and techniques described in this set of articles can significantly propel researchers forward in their ongoing quest to build a cumulative psychological science. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2009 APA, all rights reserved).

  16. Computer models and the evidence of anthropogenic climate change: An epistemology of variety-of-evidence inferences and robustness analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vezér, Martin A

    2016-04-01

    To study climate change, scientists employ computer models, which approximate target systems with various levels of skill. Given the imperfection of climate models, how do scientists use simulations to generate knowledge about the causes of observed climate change? Addressing a similar question in the context of biological modelling, Levins (1966) proposed an account grounded in robustness analysis. Recent philosophical discussions dispute the confirmatory power of robustness, raising the question of how the results of computer modelling studies contribute to the body of evidence supporting hypotheses about climate change. Expanding on Staley's (2004) distinction between evidential strength and security, and Lloyd's (2015) argument connecting variety-of-evidence inferences and robustness analysis, I address this question with respect to recent challenges to the epistemology robustness analysis. Applying this epistemology to case studies of climate change, I argue that, despite imperfections in climate models, and epistemic constraints on variety-of-evidence reasoning and robustness analysis, this framework accounts for the strength and security of evidence supporting climatological inferences, including the finding that global warming is occurring and its primary causes are anthropogenic.

  17. Finite-volume cumulant expansion in QCD-colorless plasma

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ladrem, M. [Taibah University, Physics Department, Faculty of Science, Al-Madinah, Al-Munawwarah (Saudi Arabia); Physics Department, Algiers (Algeria); ENS-Vieux Kouba (Bachir El-Ibrahimi), Laboratoire de Physique et de Mathematiques Appliquees (LPMA), Algiers (Algeria); Ahmed, M.A.A. [Taibah University, Physics Department, Faculty of Science, Al-Madinah, Al-Munawwarah (Saudi Arabia); ENS-Vieux Kouba (Bachir El-Ibrahimi), Laboratoire de Physique et de Mathematiques Appliquees (LPMA), Algiers (Algeria); Taiz University in Turba, Physics Department, Taiz (Yemen); Alfull, Z.Z. [Taibah University, Physics Department, Faculty of Science, Al-Madinah, Al-Munawwarah (Saudi Arabia); Cherif, S. [ENS-Vieux Kouba (Bachir El-Ibrahimi), Laboratoire de Physique et de Mathematiques Appliquees (LPMA), Algiers (Algeria); Ghardaia University, Sciences and Technologies Department, Ghardaia (Algeria)

    2015-09-15

    Due to the finite-size effects, the localization of the phase transition in finite systems and the determination of its order, become an extremely difficult task, even in the simplest known cases. In order to identify and locate the finite-volume transition point T{sub 0}(V) of the QCD deconfinement phase transition to a colorless QGP, we have developed a new approach using the finite-size cumulant expansion of the order parameter and the L{sub mn}-method. The first six cumulants C{sub 1,2,3,4,5,6} with the corresponding under-normalized ratios (skewness Σ, kurtosis κ, pentosis Π{sub ±}, and hexosis H{sub 1,2,3}) and three unnormalized combinations of them, (O = σ{sup 2}κΣ{sup -1},U = σ{sup -2}Σ{sup -1},N = σ{sup 2}κ) are calculated and studied as functions of (T, V). A new approach, unifying in a clear and consistent way the definitions of cumulant ratios, is proposed.Anumerical FSS analysis of the obtained results has allowed us to locate accurately the finite-volume transition point. The extracted transition temperature value T{sub 0}(V) agrees with that expected T{sub 0}{sup N}(V) from the order parameter and the thermal susceptibility χ{sub T} (T, V), according to the standard procedure of localization to within about 2%. In addition to this, a very good correlation factor is obtained proving the validity of our cumulants method. The agreement of our results with those obtained by means of other models is remarkable. (orig.)

  18. Modeling Sensor Reliability in Fault Diagnosis Based on Evidence Theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Kaijuan; Xiao, Fuyuan; Fei, Liguo; Kang, Bingyi; Deng, Yong

    2016-01-18

    Sensor data fusion plays an important role in fault diagnosis. Dempster-Shafer (D-R) evidence theory is widely used in fault diagnosis, since it is efficient to combine evidence from different sensors. However, under the situation where the evidence highly conflicts, it may obtain a counterintuitive result. To address the issue, a new method is proposed in this paper. Not only the statistic sensor reliability, but also the dynamic sensor reliability are taken into consideration. The evidence distance function and the belief entropy are combined to obtain the dynamic reliability of each sensor report. A weighted averaging method is adopted to modify the conflict evidence by assigning different weights to evidence according to sensor reliability. The proposed method has better performance in conflict management and fault diagnosis due to the fact that the information volume of each sensor report is taken into consideration. An application in fault diagnosis based on sensor fusion is illustrated to show the efficiency of the proposed method. The results show that the proposed method improves the accuracy of fault diagnosis from 81.19% to 89.48% compared to the existing methods.

  19. Spatial layout optimization for ecological land based on minimum cumulative resistance model%基于最小累计阻力模型的生态用地空间布局优化

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    程迎轩; 王红梅; 刘光盛; 郑标; 王海云; 刘翠霞

    2016-01-01

    With the urban unlimited expansion, the ecological land excessive reclamation, and the resources and environment deteriorating, the conflict between cultivated land protection, ecological protection and increasing demand of construction land is increasingly intensified. Therefore, there is an urgent need to coordinate the contradiction between socio-economic development and ecological protection by analyzing the key ecological space, the potential for expansion and the policy constraints of farmland protection comprehensively. Coordinating the contradiction between social-economic development and ecological protection also has important significance for regional economy health and stable growth. In this paper, based on the landscape security pattern theory and GIS (geographic information system) technology, 4 critical security patterns including water security, biodiversity protection, disaster control, and landscape recreation were constructed by using the method of ecological space evaluation and landscape security pattern analysis. The method of “adjusted summation” was used to identify the ecological security patterns of the key ecological elements based on the census geographic conditions, land use data and statistical data. With the method of “adjusted summation”, the regional ecological security pattern expressed the agglomeration characteristics of multiple ecosystem services in space or time preferably. The resistance for ecological protection was assigned with a value according to the ecosystem service function and ecological value, the economic suitability of construction land and the policy of basic farmland protection. Taking the core ecological land as the protection sources, the minimum cumulative resistance model (MCRM) was used to calculate the minimum cumulative resistance value of ecological land. Ecological protection was graded to 4 zones using the method of natural breaks, namely ecological core zone, ecological control zone

  20. Structure functions and particle production in the cumulative region two different exponentials

    CERN Document Server

    Braun, M

    1996-01-01

    In the framework of the recently proposed QCD based parton model for the cumulative phenomena in the interactions with nuclei two mechanisms for particle production, direct and spectator ones, are analysed. It is shown that due to final state interactions the leading terms of the direct mechanism contribution are cancelled and the spectator mechanism is the dominant one. It leads to a smaller slope of the cumulative particle production rates compared to the slope of the nuclear structure function in the cumulative region x>1, in agreement with the recent experimental data.

  1. Avoiding Program-Induced Cumulative Overload (PICO).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orr, Robin; Knapik, Joseph J; Pope, Rodney

    2016-01-01

    This article defines the concept of program-induced cumulative overload (PICO), provides examples, and advises ways to mitigate the adverse effects. PICO is the excessive cumulative physical workload that can be imparted to military personnel by a military training program with an embedded physical training component. PICO can be acute (accumulating within a single day) or chronic (accumulating across the entirety of the program) and results in adverse outcomes for affected personnel, including detrimental fatigue, performance degradation, injuries, or illness. Strategies to mitigate PICO include focusing administration and logistic practices during the development and ongoing management of a trainee program and implementing known musculoskeletal injury prevention strategies. More training is not always better, and trainers need to consider the total amount of physical activity that military personnel experience across both operational training and physical training if PICO is to be mitigated.

  2. Sharing a quota on cumulative carbon emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raupach, Michael R.; Davis, Steven J.; Peters, Glen P.; Andrew, Robbie M.; Canadell, Josep G.; Ciais, Philippe; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Jotzo, Frank; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Le Quéré, Corinne

    2014-10-01

    Any limit on future global warming is associated with a quota on cumulative global CO2 emissions. We translate this global carbon quota to regional and national scales, on a spectrum of sharing principles that extends from continuation of the present distribution of emissions to an equal per-capita distribution of cumulative emissions. A blend of these endpoints emerges as the most viable option. For a carbon quota consistent with a 2 °C warming limit (relative to pre-industrial levels), the necessary long-term mitigation rates are very challenging (typically over 5% per year), both because of strong limits on future emissions from the global carbon quota and also the likely short-term persistence in emissions growth in many regions.

  3. Cumulative carbon emissions and the Green Paradox

    OpenAIRE

    Ploeg, Frederick Van der

    2013-01-01

    The green paradox states that a gradually more ambitious climate policy such as a renewables subsidy or an anticipated carbon tax induces fossil fuel owners to extract more rapidly and accelerate global warming. However, if extraction becomes more costly as reserves are depleted, such policies also shorten the fossil fuel era, induce more fossil fuel to be left in the earth, and thus curb cumulative carbon emissions. These consequences are relevant, as global warming depends primarily on cumu...

  4. EPA Workshop on Epigenetics and Cumulative Risk ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agenda Download the Workshop Agenda (PDF) The workshop included presentations and discussions by scientific experts pertaining to three topics (i.e., epigenetic changes associated with diverse stressors, key science considerations in understanding epigenetic changes, and practical application of epigenetic tools to address cumulative risks from environmental stressors), to address several questions under each topic, and included an opportunity for attendees to participate in break-out groups, provide comments and ask questions. Workshop Goals The workshop seeks to examine the opportunity for use of aggregate epigenetic change as an indicator in cumulative risk assessment for populations exposed to multiple stressors that affect epigenetic status. Epigenetic changes are specific molecular changes around DNA that alter expression of genes. Epigenetic changes include DNA methylation, formation of histone adducts, and changes in micro RNAs. Research today indicates that epigenetic changes are involved in many chronic diseases (cancer, cardiovascular disease, obesity, diabetes, mental health disorders, and asthma). Research has also linked a wide range of stressors including pollution and social factors with occurrence of epigenetic alterations. Epigenetic changes have the potential to reflect impacts of risk factors across multiple stages of life. Only recently receiving attention is the nexus between the factors of cumulative exposure to environmental

  5. AIC, BIC, Bayesian evidence and a notion on simplicity of cosmological model

    CERN Document Server

    Szydlowski, Marek

    2008-01-01

    Recent astronomical observations indicate that the Universe is in the phase of accelerated expansion. There are many cosmological models which explain this phenomenon, but should we prefer those models over the simplest one -- $\\Lambda$CDM model? According to the Occam's razor principle if all models describe the observations equally well we should prefer the simplest one. We consider the model comparison methods which involve such rules: the Akaike information criterion (AIC), Bayesian information criterion (BIC) and Bayesian evidence to compare the $\\Lambda$CDM model with its generalisation where the interaction between dark matter and dark energy is allowed. The analyses based on the AIC and Bayesian evidence indicate that there is only a weak evidence in favour of the $\\Lambda$CDM model over its generalisation, while those based on BIC quantity indicate the strong evidence in favour the simpler model. We also calculate some quantity which measure the effective number of model parameters that the given dat...

  6. Cumulative stress in research animals: Telomere attrition as a biomarker in a welfare context?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bateson, Melissa

    2016-02-01

    Progress in improving animal welfare is currently limited by the lack of objective methods for assessing lifetime experience. I propose that telomere attrition, a cellular biomarker of biological age, provides a molecular measure of cumulative experience that could be used to assess the welfare impact of husbandry regimes and/or experimental procedures on non-human animals. I review evidence from humans that telomere attrition is accelerated by negative experiences in a cumulative and dose-dependent manner, but that this attrition can be mitigated or even reversed by positive life-style interventions. Evidence from non-human animals suggests that despite some specific differences in telomere biology, stress-induced telomere attrition is a robust phenomenon, occurring in a range of species including mice and chickens. I conclude that telomere attrition apparently integrates positive and negative experience in an accessible common currency that translates readily to novel species--the Holy Grail of a cumulative welfare indicator.

  7. Evidence-based practice models for organizational change: overview and practical applications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaffer, Marjorie A; Sandau, Kristin E; Diedrick, Lee

    2013-05-01

    To provide an overview, summary of key features and evaluation of usefulness of six evidence-based practice models frequently discussed in the literature. The variety of evidence-based practice models and frameworks, complex terminology and organizational culture challenges nurses in selecting the model that best fits their practice setting. The authors: (1) initially identified models described in a predominant nursing text; (2) searched the literature through CINAHL from 1998 to current year, using combinations of 'evidence', 'evidence-based practice', 'models', 'nursing' and 'research'; (3) refined the list of selected models based on the initial literature review; and (4) conducted a second search of the literature on the selected models for all available years to locate both historical and recent articles on their use in nursing practice. Authors described model key features and provided an evaluation of model usefulness based on specific criteria, which focused on facilitating the evidence-based practice process and guiding practice change. The evaluation of model usefulness can be used to determine the best fit of the models to the practice setting. The Johns Hopkins Model and the Academic Center for Evidence-Based Practice Star Model emphasize the processes of finding and evaluating evidence that is likely to appeal to nursing educators. Organizations may prefer the Promoting Action on Research Implementation in Health Services Framework, Advancing Research and Clinical Practice Through Close Collaboration, or Iowa models for their emphasis on team decision-making. An evidence-based practice model that is clear to the clinician and fits the organization will guide a systematic approach to evidence review and practice change. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  8. Cumulative dietary exposure of the population of Denmark to pesticides.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jensen, Bodil Hamborg; Petersen, Annette; Nielsen, Elsa; Christensen, Tue; Poulsen, Mette Erecius; Andersen, Jens Hinge

    2015-09-01

    We used the Hazard Index (HI) method to carry out a cumulative risk assessment after chronic dietary exposure to all monitored pesticides in fruit, vegetables and cereals for various consumer groups in Denmark. Residue data for all the pesticides were obtained from the Danish monitoring programme during the period 2004-2011. Food consumption data were obtained from DANSDA (the DAnish National Survey of Diet and physical Activity) for the period 2005-2008. The calculations were made using three different models to cope with residues below the limit of reporting (LOR). We concluded that a model that included processing factors and set non-detects to ½ LOR, but limited the correction (Model 3), gave the most realistic exposure estimate. With Model 3 the HI was calculated to be 0.44 for children and 0.18 for adults, indicating that there is no risk of adverse health effects following chronic cumulative exposure to the pesticides found in fruit, vegetables and cereals on the Danish market. The HI was below 1 even for consumers who eat more than 550 g of fruit and vegetables per day, corresponding to 1/3 of the population. Choosing Danish-produced commodities whenever possible could reduce the HI by a factor of 2.

  9. Mapping cumulative noise from shipping to inform marine spatial planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erbe, Christine; MacGillivray, Alexander; Williams, Rob

    2012-11-01

    Including ocean noise in marine spatial planning requires predictions of noise levels on large spatiotemporal scales. Based on a simple sound transmission model and ship track data (Automatic Identification System, AIS), cumulative underwater acoustic energy from shipping was mapped throughout 2008 in the west Canadian Exclusive Economic Zone, showing high noise levels in critical habitats for endangered resident killer whales, exceeding limits of "good conservation status" under the EU Marine Strategy Framework Directive. Error analysis proved that rough calculations of noise occurrence and propagation can form a basis for management processes, because spending resources on unnecessary detail is wasteful and delays remedial action.

  10. The Challenge of Developing Social Indicators for Cumulative Effects Assessment and Land Use Planning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John R. Parkins

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper provides a synopsis on social indicators as relevant to cumulative effects assessment and land use planning. Although much has been done to better understand the social dimensions of environmental assessment, empirical work has been lacking on social indicators that could be used either as measurable inputs or outputs for cumulative effects assessment and land use planning in different kinds of communities and regions. Cumulative effects models currently in practice often fail to address deeper issues of community and regional well-being. Against this gap, social scientists are being asked to make reliable generalizations about functional, measurable relationships between certain social indicators and land use change or scenarios. To address this challenge, the Alberta Research Council held a two-day workshop in 2005 with social scientists. The workshop resulted in a list of prioritized social indicators that could be included in cumulative effects modeling/assessments and land use planning. The top five social indicators included population growth rate, education attainment, self-assessed quality of life, equity, i.e., distribution of benefits, and locus of control. Although consensus on social indicators and social thresholds for cumulative effects models was not reached, the insight gained from the workshop will help inform future cumulative effects assessment and land use planning.

  11. Evidence for a General Factor Model of ADHD in Adults

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gibbins, Christopher; Toplak, Maggie E.; Flora, David B.; Weiss, Margaret D.; Tannock, Rosemary

    2012-01-01

    Objective: To examine factor structures of "Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders" (4th ed.) symptoms of ADHD in adults. Method: Two sets of models were tested: (a) models with inattention and hyperactivity/impulsivity as separate but correlated latent constructs and (b) hierarchical general factor models with a general factor for…

  12. Model selection on solid ground: Rigorous comparison of nine ways to evaluate Bayesian model evidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schöniger, Anneli; Wöhling, Thomas; Samaniego, Luis; Nowak, Wolfgang

    2014-12-01

    Bayesian model selection or averaging objectively ranks a number of plausible, competing conceptual models based on Bayes' theorem. It implicitly performs an optimal trade-off between performance in fitting available data and minimum model complexity. The procedure requires determining Bayesian model evidence (BME), which is the likelihood of the observed data integrated over each model's parameter space. The computation of this integral is highly challenging because it is as high-dimensional as the number of model parameters. Three classes of techniques to compute BME are available, each with its own challenges and limitations: (1) Exact and fast analytical solutions are limited by strong assumptions. (2) Numerical evaluation quickly becomes unfeasible for expensive models. (3) Approximations known as information criteria (ICs) such as the AIC, BIC, or KIC (Akaike, Bayesian, or Kashyap information criterion, respectively) yield contradicting results with regard to model ranking. Our study features a theory-based intercomparison of these techniques. We further assess their accuracy in a simplistic synthetic example where for some scenarios an exact analytical solution exists. In more challenging scenarios, we use a brute-force Monte Carlo integration method as reference. We continue this analysis with a real-world application of hydrological model selection. This is a first-time benchmarking of the various methods for BME evaluation against true solutions. Results show that BME values from ICs are often heavily biased and that the choice of approximation method substantially influences the accuracy of model ranking. For reliable model selection, bias-free numerical methods should be preferred over ICs whenever computationally feasible.

  13. Model selection on solid ground: Rigorous comparison of nine ways to evaluate Bayesian model evidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schöniger, Anneli; Wöhling, Thomas; Samaniego, Luis; Nowak, Wolfgang

    2014-12-01

    Bayesian model selection or averaging objectively ranks a number of plausible, competing conceptual models based on Bayes' theorem. It implicitly performs an optimal trade-off between performance in fitting available data and minimum model complexity. The procedure requires determining Bayesian model evidence (BME), which is the likelihood of the observed data integrated over each model's parameter space. The computation of this integral is highly challenging because it is as high-dimensional as the number of model parameters. Three classes of techniques to compute BME are available, each with its own challenges and limitations: (1) Exact and fast analytical solutions are limited by strong assumptions. (2) Numerical evaluation quickly becomes unfeasible for expensive models. (3) Approximations known as information criteria (ICs) such as the AIC, BIC, or KIC (Akaike, Bayesian, or Kashyap information criterion, respectively) yield contradicting results with regard to model ranking. Our study features a theory-based intercomparison of these techniques. We further assess their accuracy in a simplistic synthetic example where for some scenarios an exact analytical solution exists. In more challenging scenarios, we use a brute-force Monte Carlo integration method as reference. We continue this analysis with a real-world application of hydrological model selection. This is a first-time benchmarking of the various methods for BME evaluation against true solutions. Results show that BME values from ICs are often heavily biased and that the choice of approximation method substantially influences the accuracy of model ranking. For reliable model selection, bias-free numerical methods should be preferred over ICs whenever computationally feasible.

  14. Evidence Feed Forward Hidden Markov Model: A New Type Of Hidden Markov Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Del Rose

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The ability to predict the intentions of people based solely on their visual actions is a skill only performed by humans and animals. The intelligence of current computer algorithms has not reached this level of complexity, but there are several research efforts that are working towards it. With the number of classification algorithms available, it is hard to determine which algorithm works best for a particular situation. In classification of visual human intent data, Hidden Markov Models (HMM, and their variants, are leading candidates. The inability of HMMs to provide a probability in the observation to observation linkages is a big downfall in this classification technique. If a person is visually identifying an action of another person, they monitor patterns in the observations. By estimating the next observation, people have the ability to summarize the actions, and thus determine, with pretty good accuracy, the intention of the person performing the action. These visual cues and linkages are important in creating intelligent algorithms for determining human actions based on visual observations. The Evidence Feed Forward Hidden Markov Model is a newly developed algorithm which provides observation to observation linkages. The following research addresses the theory behind Evidence Feed Forward HMMs, provides mathematical proofs of their learning of these parameters to optimize the likelihood of observations with a Evidence Feed Forwards HMM, which is important in all computational intelligence algorithm, and gives comparative examples with standard HMMs in classification of both visual action data and measurement data; thus providing a strong base for Evidence Feed Forward HMMs in classification of many types of problems.

  15. Prospects for Evidence -Based Software Assurance: Models and Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-09-01

    would not only facilitate technology transition, but also the management of complex supply chains . A third challenge for R&D managers is tracing the...The project addresses the challenge of software assurance in the presence of rich supply chains . As a consequence of the focus on supply chains , the...area code) N/A Standard Form 298 (Rev. 8-98) Prescribed by ANSI Std. Z39.18 software assurance, evidence-based software, software supply chain

  16. Cumulative risks of foster care placement for Danish children

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Fallesen, Peter; Emanuel, Natalia; Wildeman, Christopher

    2014-01-01

    Although recent research suggests that the cumulative risk of foster care placement is far higher for American children than originally suspected, little is known about the cumulative risk of foster...

  17. Recursive Numerical Evaluation of the Cumulative Bivariate Normal Distribution

    CERN Document Server

    Meyer, Christian

    2010-01-01

    We propose an algorithm for evaluation of the cumulative bivariate normal distribution, building upon Marsaglia's ideas for evaluation of the cumulative univariate normal distribution. The algorithm is mathematically transparent, delivers competitive performance and can easily be extended to arbitrary precision.

  18. A Cumulant-based Analysis of Nonlinear Magnetospheric Dynamics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jay R. Johnson; Simon Wing

    2004-01-28

    Understanding magnetospheric dynamics and predicting future behavior of the magnetosphere is of great practical interest because it could potentially help to avert catastrophic loss of power and communications. In order to build good predictive models it is necessary to understand the most critical nonlinear dependencies among observed plasma and electromagnetic field variables in the coupled solar wind/magnetosphere system. In this work, we apply a cumulant-based information dynamical measure to characterize the nonlinear dynamics underlying the time evolution of the Dst and Kp geomagnetic indices, given solar wind magnetic field and plasma input. We examine the underlying dynamics of the system, the temporal statistical dependencies, the degree of nonlinearity, and the rate of information loss. We find a significant solar cycle dependence in the underlying dynamics of the system with greater nonlinearity for solar minimum. The cumulant-based approach also has the advantage that it is reliable even in the case of small data sets and therefore it is possible to avoid the assumption of stationarity, which allows for a measure of predictability even when the underlying system dynamics may change character. Evaluations of several leading Kp prediction models indicate that their performances are sub-optimal during active times. We discuss possible improvements of these models based on this nonparametric approach.

  19. Cumulative Advantage in the Skill Development of STEM Graduate Students: A Mixed-Methods Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feldon, David F.; Maher, Michelle A.; Roksa, Josipa; Peugh, James

    2016-01-01

    Studies of skill development often describe a process of cumulative advantage, in which small differences in initial skill compound over time, leading to increasing skill gaps between those with an initial advantage and those without. We offer evidence of a similar phenomenon accounting for differential patterns of research skill development in…

  20. Long and Short Term Cumulative Structural Priming Effects

    OpenAIRE

    Kaschak, Michael P.; Kutta, Timothy J.; Coyle, Jacqueline M.

    2012-01-01

    We present six experiments that examine cumulative structural priming effects (i.e., structural priming effects that accumulate across many utterances). Of particular interest is whether (1) cumulative priming effects transfer across language production tasks and (2) the transfer of cumulative priming effects across tasks persists over the course of a week. Our data suggest that cumulative structural priming effects do transfer across language production tasks (e.g., from written stem complet...

  1. Preserved cumulative semantic interference despite amnesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gary Michael Oppenheim

    2015-05-01

    As predicted by Oppenheim et al’s (2010 implicit incremental learning account, WRP’s BCN RTs demonstrated strong (and significant repetition priming and semantic blocking effects (Figure 1. Similar to typical results from neurally intact undergraduates, WRP took longer to name pictures presented in semantically homogeneous blocks than in heterogeneous blocks, an effect that increased with each cycle. This result challenges accounts that ascribe cumulative semantic interference in this task to explicit memory mechanisms, instead suggesting that the effect has the sort of implicit learning bases that are typically spared in hippocampal amnesia.

  2. Cumulant matching for independent source extraction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phlypo, Ronald; Zarzoso, Vicente; Comon, Pierre; Lemahieu, Ignace

    2008-01-01

    In this work we show how one can make use of priors on signal statistics under the form of cumulant guesses to extract an independent source from an observed mixture. The advantage of using statistical priors on the signal lies in the fact that no specific knowledge is needed about its temporal behavior, neither about its spatial distribution. We show that these statistics can be obtained either by reasoning on the theoretical values of a supposed waveform, either by using a subset of the observations from which we know that their statistics are merely hindered by interferences. Results on an electro-cardiographic recording confirm the above assumptions.

  3. The quest for conditional independence in prospectivity modeling: weights-of-evidence, boost weights-of-evidence, and logistic regression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaeben, Helmut; Semmler, Georg

    2016-09-01

    The objective of prospectivity modeling is prediction of the conditional probability of the presence T = 1 or absence T = 0 of a target T given favorable or prohibitive predictors B, or construction of a two classes 0,1 classification of T. A special case of logistic regression called weights-of-evidence (WofE) is geologists' favorite method of prospectivity modeling due to its apparent simplicity. However, the numerical simplicity is deceiving as it is implied by the severe mathematical modeling assumption of joint conditional independence of all predictors given the target. General weights of evidence are explicitly introduced which are as simple to estimate as conventional weights, i.e., by counting, but do not require conditional independence. Complementary to the regression view is the classification view on prospectivity modeling. Boosting is the construction of a strong classifier from a set of weak classifiers. From the regression point of view it is closely related to logistic regression. Boost weights-of-evidence (BoostWofE) was introduced into prospectivity modeling to counterbalance violations of the assumption of conditional independence even though relaxation of modeling assumptions with respect to weak classifiers was not the (initial) purpose of boosting. In the original publication of BoostWofE a fabricated dataset was used to "validate" this approach. Using the same fabricated dataset it is shown that BoostWofE cannot generally compensate lacking conditional independence whatever the consecutively processing order of predictors. Thus the alleged features of BoostWofE are disproved by way of counterexamples, while theoretical findings are confirmed that logistic regression including interaction terms can exactly compensate violations of joint conditional independence if the predictors are indicators.

  4. Original and cumulative prospect theory: a discussion of empirical differences

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    P.P. Wakker; H. Fennema

    1997-01-01

    This note discusses differences between prospect theory and cumulative prospect theory. It shows that cumulative prospect theory is not merely a formal correction of some theoretical problems in prospect theory, but it also gives different predictions. Experiments are described that favor cumulative

  5. Evidence, models, conservation programs and limits to management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nichols, J.D.

    2012-01-01

    Walsh et al. (2012) emphasized the importance of obtaining evidence to assess the effects of management actions on state variables relevant to objectives of conservation programs. They focused on malleefowl Leipoa ocellata, ground-dwelling Australian megapodes listed as vulnerable. They noted that although fox Vulpes vulpes baiting is the main management action used in malleefowl conservation throughout southern Australia, evidence of the effectiveness of this action is limited and currently debated. Walsh et al. (2012) then used data from 64 sites monitored for malleefowl and foxes over 23 years to assess key functional relationships relevant to fox control as a conservation action for malleefowl. In one set of analyses, Walsh et al. (2012) focused on two relationships: fox baiting investment versus fox presence, and fox presence versus malleefowl population size and rate of population change. Results led to the counterintuitive conclusion that increases in investments in fox control produced slight decreases in malleefowl population size and growth. In a second set of analyses, Walsh et al. (2012) directly assessed the relationship between investment in fox baiting and malleefowl population size and rate of population change. This set of analyses showed no significant relationship between investment in fox population control and malleefowl population growth. Both sets of analyses benefited from the incorporation of key environmental covariates hypothesized to influence these management relationships. Walsh et al. (2012) concluded that "in most situations, malleefowl conservation did not effectively benefit from fox baiting at current levels of investment." In this commentary, I discuss the work of Walsh et al. (2012) using the conceptual framework of structured decision making (SDM). In doing so, I accept their analytic results and associated conclusions as accurate and discuss basic ideas about evidence, conservation and limits to management.

  6. Measuring Convergence using Dynamic Equilibrium Models: Evidence from Chinese Provinces

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pan, Lei; Posch, Olaf; van der Wel, Michel

    We propose a model to study economic convergence in the tradition of neoclassical growth theory. We employ a novel stochastic set-up of the Solow (1956) model with shocks to both capital and labor. Our novel approach identifies the speed of convergence directly from estimating the parameters which...

  7. Cumulative early life adversity predicts longevity in wild baboons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tung, Jenny; Archie, Elizabeth A; Altmann, Jeanne; Alberts, Susan C

    2016-04-19

    In humans and other animals, harsh circumstances in early life predict morbidity and mortality in adulthood. Multiple adverse conditions are thought to be especially toxic, but this hypothesis has rarely been tested in a prospective, longitudinal framework, especially in long-lived mammals. Here we use prospective data on 196 wild female baboons to show that cumulative early adversity predicts natural adult lifespan. Females who experience ≥3 sources of early adversity die a median of 10 years earlier than females who experience ≤1 adverse circumstances (median lifespan is 18.5 years). Females who experience the most adversity are also socially isolated in adulthood, suggesting that social processes partially explain the link between early adversity and adult survival. Our results provide powerful evidence for the developmental origins of health and disease and indicate that close ties between early adversity and survival arise even in the absence of health habit and health care-related explanations.

  8. Cumulative semantic interference for associative relations in language production.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rose, Sebastian Benjamin; Abdel Rahman, Rasha

    2016-07-01

    Associations between conceptual representations and thematic relations play an important role in the organization of semantic memory. However, language production research on semantic context effects shows that associative (e.g., dog and bone) and categorical relations (dog and horse) seem to diverge. While categorical contexts typically induce semantic interference that has traditionally been taken to reflect competitive lexical selection, evidence for comparable associative modulations is rare. In three experiments we tested whether thematic associations between objects induce cumulative interference in the continuous naming paradigm, assuming that this paradigm hampers lexical selection via the activation of highly active lexical cohorts steadily increasing in size. Indeed, naming times increased linearly with each newly named member of thematic contexts irrespective of the pre-activation of associations before the naming task (Experiment 1), and irrespective of whether categorical links were partially included (Experiments 1 and 2) or entirely absent (Experiment 3). These findings demonstrate that different types of semantic relations induce interference.

  9. The Bubbles of China Stock Market Based on Return Decomposition and Cumulative Return

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHANG Xiao-xia; WU Chong-feng

    2006-01-01

    Using Capital Asset Pricing Model Integrating both Firm and Market (CAPMIFM), we first decompose the asset return into two components. One is called the fundamental return,which is related to the intrinsic value of the asset. The other is called bubble return, which is derived from the asset bubbles. Then a stock bubble return model bused on cumulative return is proposed. The model exhibits characterizing log-periodic oscillations and a power law acceleration of the cumulative return. Empirical results suggest that the model has a good fit for the bubbles of China stock market.

  10. Cumulative Environmental Management Association : Wood Buffalo Region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Friesen, B. [Syncrude Canada Ltd., Edmonton, AB (Canada)

    2001-07-01

    The recently announced oil sands development of the Wood Buffalo Region in Alberta was the focus of this power point presentation. Both mining and in situ development is expected to total $26 billion and 2.6 million barrels per day of bitumen production. This paper described the economic, social and environmental challenges facing the resource development of this region. In addition to the proposed oil sands projects, this region will accommodate the needs of conventional oil and gas production, forestry, building of pipelines and power lines, municipal development, recreation, tourism, mining exploration and open cast mining. The Cumulative Environmental Management Association (CEMA) was inaugurated as a non-profit association in April 2000, and includes 41 members from all sectors. Its major role is to ensure a sustainable ecosystem and to avoid any cumulative impacts on wildlife. Other work underway includes the study of soil and plant species diversity, and the effects of air emissions on human health, wildlife and vegetation. The bioaccumulation of heavy metals and their impacts on surface water and fish is also under consideration to ensure the quality and quantity of surface water and ground water. 3 figs.

  11. Cumulative environmental management and the oil sands

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2005-07-01

    In response to concerns regarding the cumulative environmental impacts of oil sands development within the Athabasca oil sands deposit, the government of Alberta established a Regional Sustainable Development Strategy (RSDS) to balance development with environmental protection. The environmental issues identified through the RSDS were addressed by the Cumulative Environmental Management Association (CEMA). CEMA's boundary is the Wood Buffalo region of northeastern Alberta. It identifies existing and future environmental effects in the region and proposes recommendations to regulatory bodies for reducing environmental impacts associated with oil sands development. This presentation outlined some of the 55 stakeholder representatives of CEMA, including Alberta government departments associated with resource development, oil sand developers within the region, and Aboriginal communities and First Nations. These stakeholders provide input on sector priorities and agree on environmental thresholds. Established working groups also address technical and scientific research issues identified in the RSDS such as sustainable ecosystems; surface waters; trace metals and air contaminants; nitrogen oxides and sulphur dioxides; and land reclamation. To date, CEMA has submitted more than 50 reports and has made 4 major environmental recommendations for trace metal management, ecosystem management tools, a framework for acid deposition management, and a landscape design checklist. tabs., figs.

  12. Higher Order Cumulants in Colorless Partonic Plasma

    CERN Document Server

    Cherif, S; Ladrem, M

    2016-01-01

    Any physical system considered to study the QCD deconfinement phase transition certainly has a finite volume, so the finite size effects are inevitably present. This renders the location of the phase transition and the determination of its order as an extremely difficult task, even in the simplest known cases. In order to identify and locate the colorless QCD deconfinement transition point in finite volume $T_{0}(V)$, a new approach based on the finite-size cumulant expansion of the order parameter and the $\\mathscr{L}_{m,n}$-Method is used.We have shown that both cumulants of higher order and their ratios, associated to the thermodynamical fluctuations of the order parameter, in QCD deconfinement phase transition behave in a particular enough way revealing pronounced oscillations in the transition region. The sign structure and the oscillatory behavior of these in the vicinity of the deconfinement phase transition point might be a sensitive probe and may allow one to elucidate their relation to the QCD phase...

  13. Is uveitis associated with topiramate use? A cumulative review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Goldberg JL

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Jeffrey L Goldberg,1 Amy G Lau,2 Bo Fan,2 Lisa Ford,3 Howard E Greenberg3 1Byers Eye Institute, Stanford University, Palo Alto, CA, 2Janssen Research & Development, LLC, Horsham, PA, 3Janssen Research & Development, LLC, Titusville, NJ, USA Abstract: Occasional reports of uveitis following topiramate use necessitated an investigation of relevant cases from safety databases and published biomedical literature. Data mining of the Food and Drug Administration Adverse Event Reporting System and cumulative review of cases from the global safety database (sponsor database and published literature were conducted to assess association between topiramate use and uveitis. The Food and Drug Administration Adverse Event Reporting System search identified disproportional reporting of uveitis (n=23 and related terms (choroidal detachment, n=25; iridocyclitis, n=17. The postmarketing reporting frequency of uveitis and related events from the global safety database and based on an estimated topiramate exposure of 11,185,740 person-years from launch to April 2015 was 0.38 per 100,000 person-years and assigned as very rare. A total of 14 potential uveitis cases were identified from the cumulative review. Seven of these 14 cases were complicated by inadequate documentation, appearance of uveitic signs following drug withdrawal, or concurrent use of other sulfonamides. In acute angle-closure glaucoma and uveal effusions cases, insufficient evidence for underlying inflammation suggested that uveitis was not a component. Only seven of 14 cases were well documented, potentially topiramate-associated uveitis cases. Uveitis may occur in the setting of topiramate use only in very rare instances. Current evidence did not reveal a dose- or duration-dependent relationship between uveitis and topiramate use. Keywords: topiramate, uveitis, acute angle-closure glaucoma, drug safety, Food and Drug Administration Adverse Event Reporting System, postmarketing 

  14. The seven-year cumulative survival rate of Osstem implants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Young-Kyun; Kim, Bum-Su; Yun, Pil-Young; Mun, Sang-Un; Yi, Yang-Jin; Jeong, Kyung-In

    2014-01-01

    Objectives This study was performed to analyze the cumulative survival rate of Osstem implants (Osstem Implant Co., Ltd.) over a seven-year period. Materials and Methods A total of 105 patients who had 467 Osstem implants that were placed at the Section of Dentistry, Seoul National University Bundang Hospital (Seongnam, Korea) from June 2003 through December 2005 were analyzed. The life table method and a cross-tubulation analysis, log rank test were used to evaluate the survival curve and the influence that the prognostic factors. The prognostic factors, i.e., age and gender of patients, diameter and length, type of implants, bone graft history and loading time were determined with a Cox proportional hazard model based on logistic regression analysis. Results The seven-year cumulative survival rate of Osstem implants was 95.37%. The Cox proportional hazard model revealed that the following factors had a significant influence on survival rate; increased diameter, reduced prosthetic loading period and performance of bone grafting. Conclusion The osstem implants showed satisfactory results over the seven-year study period. PMID:24868503

  15. Experimental and modeling evidence of appendicularian-ciliate interactions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lombard, Fabien; Eloire, Damien; Gobet, Angelique

    2010-01-01

    Interactions between appendicularians and ciliates were observed over the life span of Oikopleura dioica in laboratory cultures and clarified with the use of mathematical modeling and microscopic observations. Complex interactions including competition, parasitism, predation, and histophagy occur...

  16. Astrophysical evidence on physics beyond the standard model

    CERN Document Server

    Dar, Arnon

    1995-01-01

    Astrophysics and cosmology can be used to test the standard model of particle physics under conditions and over distance and time scales not accessible to laboratory experiments. Most of the astrophysical observations are in good agreement with the standard model. In particular, primordial nucleosynthesis, supernova explosions, stellar evolution and cosmic background radiations have been used to derive strong limits on physics beyond the standard model. However, the solution of some important astrophysical and cosmological problems may require new physics beyond the standard model. These include the origin of the initial conditions, large scale structure formation, the baryon asymmetry in the observed Universe, the dark matter problem, the solar neutrino problem and some cosmic ray puzzles. Here I review some important developments relevant to some of these problems, which took place most recently.

  17. Appraisals Generate Specific Configurations of Facial Muscle Movements in a Gambling Task: Evidence for the Component Process Model of Emotion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gentsch, Kornelia; Grandjean, Didier; Scherer, Klaus R

    2015-01-01

    Scherer's Component Process Model provides a theoretical framework for research on the production mechanism of emotion and facial emotional expression. The model predicts that appraisal results drive facial expressions, which unfold sequentially and cumulatively over time. In two experiments, we examined facial muscle activity changes (via facial electromyography recordings over the corrugator, cheek, and frontalis regions) in response to events in a gambling task. These events were experimentally manipulated feedback stimuli which presented simultaneous information directly affecting goal conduciveness (gambling outcome: win, loss, or break-even) and power appraisals (Experiment 1 and 2), as well as control appraisal (Experiment 2). We repeatedly found main effects of goal conduciveness (starting ~600 ms), and power appraisals (starting ~800 ms after feedback onset). Control appraisal main effects were inconclusive. Interaction effects of goal conduciveness and power appraisals were obtained in both experiments (Experiment 1: over the corrugator and cheek regions; Experiment 2: over the frontalis region) suggesting amplified goal conduciveness effects when power was high in contrast to invariant goal conduciveness effects when power was low. Also an interaction of goal conduciveness and control appraisals was found over the cheek region, showing differential goal conduciveness effects when control was high and invariant effects when control was low. These interaction effects suggest that the appraisal of having sufficient control or power affects facial responses towards gambling outcomes. The result pattern suggests that corrugator and frontalis regions are primarily related to cognitive operations that process motivational pertinence, whereas the cheek region would be more influenced by coping implications. Our results provide first evidence demonstrating that cognitive-evaluative mechanisms related to goal conduciveness, control, and power appraisals affect

  18. Evidence for the Multiverse in the Standard Model and Beyond

    CERN Document Server

    Hall, Lawrence J

    2007-01-01

    In any theory it is unnatural if the observed parameters lie very close to special values that determine the existence of complex structures necessary for observers. A naturalness probability, P, is introduced to numerically evaluate the unnaturalness. If P is small in all known theories, there is an observer naturalness problem. In addition to the well-known case of the cosmological constant, we argue that nuclear stability and electroweak symmetry breaking (EWSB) represent significant observer naturalness problems. The naturalness probability associated with nuclear stability is conservatively estimated as P_nuc < 10^{-(3-2)}, and for simple EWSB theories P_EWSB < 10^{-(2-1)}. This pattern of unnaturalness in three different arenas, cosmology, nuclear physics, and EWSB, provides evidence for the multiverse. In the nuclear case the problem is largely solved even with a flat multiverse distribution, and with nontrivial distributions it is possible to understand both the proximity to neutron stability an...

  19. Reading Time as Evidence for Mental Models in Understanding Physics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brookes, David T.; Mestre, José; Stine-Morrow, Elizabeth A. L.

    2007-11-01

    We present results of a reading study that show the usefulness of probing physics students' cognitive processing by measuring reading time. According to contemporary discourse theory, when people read a text, a network of associated inferences is activated to create a mental model. If the reader encounters an idea in the text that conflicts with existing knowledge, the construction of a coherent mental model is disrupted and reading times are prolonged, as measured using a simple self-paced reading paradigm. We used this effect to study how "non-Newtonian" and "Newtonian" students create mental models of conceptual systems in physics as they read texts related to the ideas of Newton's third law, energy, and momentum. We found significant effects of prior knowledge state on patterns of reading time, suggesting that students attempt to actively integrate physics texts with their existing knowledge.

  20. Selection Bias in Educational Transition Models: Theory and Empirical Evidence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holm, Anders; Jæger, Mads

    Most studies using Mare’s (1980, 1981) seminal model of educational transitions find that the effect of family background decreases across transitions. Recently, Cameron and Heckman (1998, 2001) have argued that the “waning coefficients” in the Mare model are driven by selection on unobserved...... the United States, United Kingdom, Denmark, and the Netherlands shows that when we take selection into account the effect of family background variables on educational transitions is largely constant across transitions. We also discuss several difficulties in estimating educational transition models which...... variables. This paper, first, explains theoretically how selection on unobserved variables leads to waning coefficients and, second, illustrates empirically how selection leads to biased estimates of the effect of family background on educational transitions. Our empirical analysis using data from...

  1. The crisis intervention team (CIT) model: An evidence-based policing practice?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watson, Amy C; Compton, Michael T; Draine, Jeffrey N

    2017-08-30

    As academic researchers, we are often asked to opine on whether the Crisis Intervention Team model (CIT) is an evidence-based practice (EBP) or evidence-based policing. Our answer is that it depends on how you define evidence-based practice and what outcome you are interested in. In this commentary, we briefly describe the CIT model, examine definitions of evidence-based practice and evidence-based policing, and then summarize the existing research on what is known about the effectiveness of CIT to date. We conclude that CIT can be designated an EBP for officer-level cognitive and attitudinal outcomes, but more research is needed to determine if CIT can be designated an EBP for other outcomes. Using an evidence-based practice process approach, CIT may also be a justified strategy for many communities. Future directions to inform the field are discussed. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  2. The Neolithic transition in Europe: archaeological models and genetic evidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin Richards

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available The major pattern in the European gene pool is a southeast-northwest frequency gradient of classic genetic markers such as blood groups, which population geneticists initially attributed to the demographic impact of Neolithic farmers dispersing from the Near East. Molecular genetics has enriched this picture, with analyses of mitochondrial DNA and the Y chromosome allowing a more detailed exploration of alternative models for the spread of the Neolithic into Europe. This paper considers a range of possible models in the light of the detailed information now emerging from genetic studies.

  3. Observational evidence for various models of Moving Magnetic Features

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Jeongwoo W.

    1992-01-01

    New measurements of Moving Magnetic Features (MMFs) based on the observations of the active region NOAA 5612 made at Big Bear Solar Observatory (BBSO) on August 2, 1989 are presented. The existing theoretical models are checked against the new observations, and the origin of MMFs conjectured from the deduced observational constraints is discussed.

  4. Cumulative receipt of an anti-poverty tax credit for families did not impact tobacco smoking among parents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pega, Frank; Gilsanz, Paola; Kawachi, Ichiro; Wilson, Nick; Blakely, Tony

    2017-04-01

    The effect of anti-poverty tax credit interventions on tobacco consumption is unclear. Previous studies have estimated short-term effects, did not isolate the effects of cumulative dose of tax credits, produced conflicting results, and used methods with limited control for some time-varying confounders (e.g., those affected by prior treatment) and treatment regimen (i.e., study participants' tax credit receipt pattern over time). We estimated the longer-term, cumulative effect of New Zealand's Family Tax Credit (FTC) on tobacco consumption, using a natural experiment (administrative errors leading to exogenous variation in FTC receipt) and methods specifically for controlling confounding, reverse causation, and treatment regimen. We extracted seven waves (2002-2009) of the nationally representative Survey of Family, Income and Employment including 4404 working-age (18-65 years) parents in families. The exposure was the total numbers of years of receiving FTC. The outcomes were regular smoking and the average daily number of cigarettes usually smoked at wave 7. We estimated average treatment effects using inverse probability of treatment weighting and marginal structural modelling. Each additional year of receiving FTC affected neither the odds of regular tobacco smoking among all parents (odds ratio 1.02, 95% confidence interval 0.94-1.11), nor the number of cigarettes smoked among parents who smoked regularly (rate ratio 1.01, 95% confidence interval 0.99-1.03). We found no evidence for an association between the cumulative number of years of receiving an anti-poverty tax credit and tobacco smoking or consumption among parents. The assumptions of marginal structural modelling are quite demanding, and we therefore cannot rule out residual confounding. Nonetheless, our results suggest that tax credit programme participation will not increase tobacco consumption among poor parents, at least in this high-income country. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights

  5. Ion cumulation by conical cathode electrolysis.

    CERN Document Server

    Grishin, V G

    2002-01-01

    Results of solid-state sodium stearate electrolysis with conical and cylindrical cathodes is presented here. Both electric measurement and conical samples destruction can be explained if a stress developing inside the conical sample is much bigger than in the cylindrical case and there is its unlimited amplification along cone slopes. OTHER KEYWORDS: ion, current, solid, symmetry, cumulation, polarization, depolarization, ionic conductor,superionic conductor, ice, crystal, strain, V-center, V-centre, doped crystal, interstitial impurity, intrinsic color center, high pressure technology, Bridgman, anvil, experiment, crowdion, dielectric, proton, layer, defect, lattice, dynamics, electromigration, mobility, muon catalysis, concentration, doping, dopant, conductivity, pycnonuclear reaction, permittivity, dielectric constant, point defects, interstitials, polarizability, imperfection, defect centers, glass, epitaxy, sodium hydroxide, metallic substrate, crystallization, point, tip, susceptibility, ferroelectric, ...

  6. [Cumulative trauma disorders: work or professional disease?].

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Carvalho, Marcus Vitor Diniz; Cavalcanti, Francisco Ivo Dantas; Soriano, Evelyne Pessoa; de Miranda, Hênio Ferreira

    2009-06-01

    This study aimed at reviewing the Brazilian legislation applied to occupational health. It refers to the diseases embodied in the Repetition Strain Injury (RSI) and Cumulative Trauma Disorders (CTD) regarded as work or professional diseases. This analysis allowed to perform the historical evolution of legislation concerning the issue, noting that the state of the art of regulation on RSI-CTD is anchored in specific regulation present in the Normative Instruction 98/2003, that establishes the diagnostic criteria and classification of RSI-CTD. It was concluded that according to the existing legislation in Brazil, the pathologies related to RSI-CTD are considered as work diseases and their legal effects are similar to the work-related accidents.

  7. Droplet actuation induced by coalescence: experimental evidences and phenomenological modeling

    CERN Document Server

    Sellier, Mathieu; Gaubert, Cécile; Verdier, Claude

    2012-01-01

    This paper considers the interaction between two droplets placed on a substrate in immediate vicinity. We show here that when the two droplets are of different fluids and especially when one of the droplet is highly volatile, a wealth of fascinating phenomena can be observed. In particular, the interaction may result in the actuation of the droplet system, i.e. its displacement over a finite length. In order to control this displacement, we consider droplets confined on a hydrophilic stripe created by plasma-treating a PDMS substrate. This controlled actuation opens up unexplored opportunities in the field of microfluidics. In order to explain the observed actuation phenomenon, we propose a simple phenomenological model based on Newton's second law and a simple balance between the driving force arising from surface energy gradients and the viscous resistive force. This simple model is able to reproduce qualitatively and quantitatively the observed droplet dynamics.

  8. Immune System Modulators with Antidepressant Effects: Evidence from Animal Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abelaira, Helena M; Maciel, Amanda L; Quevedo, Joao; Reus, Gislaine Z

    2017-01-01

    Major depressive disorder (MDD) is associated with high mortality and morbidity rates, and currently, approximately 340 million people worldwide suffer from depression at some point in life. In view of the growing socio-economic and clinical impact, several studies have focused on the etiopathology of MDD, suggesting that not only the monoaminergic system but also other brain mechanisms may be involved in the pathophysiology of MDD. Recent studies have shown a link between inflammation and MDD and have also demonstrated that antidepressants and antiinflammatory drugs can act to reduce inflammation, thereby improving depressive symptoms. Animal models of depression are indispensable for studying the pathophysiology of this disorder and new treatments for it. Further, studies have shown that rodent models of depression are also associated with elevated levels of inflammation in the periphery and brain. This review will highlight the role of immune inflammation in MDD and the significance of immune system modulators with antidepressant effects in the treatment of MDD, based on studies using animal models of depression. Copyright© Bentham Science Publishers; For any queries, please email at epub@benthamscience.org.

  9. A stochastic multicriteria model for evidence-based decision making in drug benefit-risk analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tervonen, Tommi; van Valkenhoef, Gert; Buskens, Erik; Hillege, Hans L.; Postmus, Douwe

    2011-01-01

    Drug benefit-risk (BR) analysis is based on firm clinical evidence regarding various safety and efficacy outcomes. In this paper, we propose a new and more formal approach for constructing a supporting multicriteria model that fully takes into account the evidence on efficacy and adverse drug reacti

  10. Prefiltering and Cumulant Based Harmonic Retrieval in Mixed ARMA Noises

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIShenghong; LIJianhua; XUEZhi; CHENLiya

    2005-01-01

    Harmonic retrieval is an important issue in the the field of statistical signal processing. However, in the case of harmonic retrieval in mixed colored Gaussian and Non-Gaussian Autoregressive movingaverage (ARMA) noises, the corresponding existing approaches can not retrieve a harmonic signal either with quadratic phase coupling components, or with cubic phase coupling components, or when the colored non-Gaussian ARMA noise is symmetrically distributed. In this paper, a new general approach is proposed to retrieve a one-dimensional real harmonic signal in the above mixed ARMA noises. A suitable filter is first used to remove all the sharp power spectrum peaks of the noisy observed process, then some kind of fourth-order cumulant is employed to identify the Autoregressive (AR) parameter values of the colored non-Gaussian ARMA noise model. After the real noisy observed data are filtered with the identified AR parameter values again, cumulant based methods can be made use of to retrieve the harmonics. The proposed new approach can be applied to retrieve a one-dimensional real harmonic signal in the above mixed colored Gaussian and non-Gaussian ARMA noises with no restrictions on the phase coupling of the harmonics and the distribution of the colored non-Gaussian ARMA noise. Simulation examples are presented to demonstrate its effectiveness.

  11. Cumulative effects of road de-icing salt on amphibian behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denoël, Mathieu; Bichot, Marion; Ficetola, Gentile Francesco; Delcourt, Johann; Ylieff, Marc; Kestemont, Patrick; Poncin, Pascal

    2010-08-15

    Despite growing evidence of the detrimental effect of chemical substances on organisms, limited research has focused on changes in behavioral patterns, in part due to the difficulties to obtain detailed quantitative data. Recent developments in efficient computer-based video analyses have allowed testing pesticide effects on model species such as the zebrafish. However, these new techniques have not yet been applied to amphibians and directly to conservation issues, i.e., to assess toxicological risks on threatened species. We used video-tracking analyses to test a quantitative effect of an environmental contaminant on the locomotion of amphibian tadpoles (Rana temporaria) by taking into account cumulative effects. Because recent research has demonstrated effects of de-icing salts on survival and community structure, we used sodium chloride in our experimental design (25 replicates, 4 concentrations, 4 times) to test for an effect at the scale of behavior at environmentally relevant concentrations. Analysis of 372 1-h video-tracks (5 samples/s) showed a complex action of salts on behavioral patterns with a dose and cumulative response over time. Although no effects were found on mortality or growth, the highest salt concentrations reduced the speed and movement of tadpoles in comparison with control treatments. The reduced locomotor performance could have detrimental consequences in terms of tadpoles' responses to competition and predation and may be an indicator of the low concentration effect of the contaminant. On one hand, this study demonstrates the usefulness of examining behavior to address conservation issues and understand the complex action of environmental factors and, more particularly, pollutants on organisms. On the other hand, our results highlight the need of new computerized techniques to quantitatively analyze these patterns.

  12. Cumulative Laws,Team Assembling Mechanisms Determining Network Structure

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WU Bin; LIU Qi; YE Qi

    2008-01-01

    A number of researching works have shed light on the field of complex networks recently.We investigate a wide range of real-world networks and find several interesting phenomena.Firstly,almost all of these networks evolve by overlapping new small graphs on former networks.Secondly,not only the degree sequence of the mature network follows a power-law distribution,but also the distribution of the cumulative occurrence times during the growing process are revealed to have a heavy tail.Existing network evolving models do not provide interpretation to these phenomena.We suggest a model based on the team assembling mechanism,which is extracted from the growing processes of real-world networks and requires simple parameters,and produces networks exhibiting these properties observed in the present study and in previous works.

  13. EXPERIMENTAL VALIDATION OF CUMULATIVE SURFACE LOCATION ERROR FOR TURNING PROCESSES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adam K. Kiss

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study is to create a mechanical model which is suitable to investigate the surface quality in turning processes, based on the Cumulative Surface Location Error (CSLE, which describes the series of the consecutive Surface Location Errors (SLE in roughing operations. In the established model, the investigated CSLE depends on the currently and the previously resulted SLE by means of the variation of the width of cut. The phenomenon of the system can be described as an implicit discrete map. The stationary Surface Location Error and its bifurcations were analysed and flip-type bifurcation was observed for CSLE. Experimental verification of the theoretical results was carried out.

  14. Cumulative protons in 12C fragmentation at intermediate energy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abramov B.M.

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available In the FRAGM experiment at heavy ion accelerator complex TWAC-ITEP, the proton yields at an angle 3.5° have been measured in fragmentation of carbon ions at T0 = 0.3, 0.6, 0.95 and 2.0 GeV/nucleon on beryllium target. The data are presented as invariant proton yields on cumulative variable x in the range 0.9 < x < 2.4. Proton spectra cover six orders of invariant cross section magnitude. They have been analyzed in the framework of quark cluster fragmentation model. Fragmentation functions of quarkgluon string model are used. The probabilities of the existence of multi-quark clusters in carbon nuclei are estimated to be 8–12% for six-quark clusters and 0.2–0.6% for ninequark clusters.

  15. Implications of Neuroscientific Evidence for the Cognitive Models of Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cruwys, Tegan; O'Kearney, Richard

    2008-01-01

    Brewin's dual representation theory, Ehlers and Clark's cognitive appraisal model, and Dalgleish's schematic, propositional, analogue and associative representational systems model are considered in the light of recent evidence on the neural substrates of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). The models' proposals about the cognitive mechanism of…

  16. A study on FRAME model: Evidence from banking industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fazlollah Talebi

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available The Framework for the Rational Analysis of Mobile Education (FRAME model explains mobile learning features as a process in terms of mobile technologies, human learning capacities, and social interaction. It describes various issues of information overload, knowledge navigation, and cooperation in learning. The framework gives insight for development of future mobile devices as well as learning materials, and an appropriate design of learning and teaching strategies for the purpose of mobile education. The proposed study of this paper implements the FRAME model in Iranian banking industry. The study has been implemented among a sample of 160 regular employees who worked for Bank Maskan in province of Alborz, Iran. To validate the questionnaire, we use content validity ratio (CVR and verify the questionnaire using Cronbach alphas. Using t-student test, the study has determined that the firm was ready to adopt mobile learning in terms of device, social and learner aspects. In our survey, learner aspect was number one priority followed by device and social aspects.

  17. First evidence of running cosmic vacuum: challenging the concordance model

    CERN Document Server

    Sola, Joan; Perez, Javier de Cruz

    2016-01-01

    Despite the fact that a rigid $\\Lambda$-term is a fundamental building block of the concordance $\\Lambda$CDM model, we show that a large class of cosmological scenarios with dynamical vacuum energy density $\\rho_{\\Lambda}$ and/or gravitational coupling $G$, together with a possible non-conservation of matter, are capable of seriously challenging the traditional phenomenological success of the $\\Lambda$CDM. In this Letter, we discuss these "running vacuum models" (RVM's), in which $\\rho_{\\Lambda}=\\rho_{\\Lambda}(H)$ consists of a nonvanishing constant term and a series of powers of the Hubble rate. Such generic structure is potentially linked to the quantum field theoretical description of the expanding Universe. By performing an overall fit to the cosmological observables $SNIa+BAO+H(z)+LSS+BBN+CMB$ (in which the WMAP9, Planck 2013 and Planck 2015 data are taken into account), we find that the RVM's appear definitely more favored than the $\\Lambda$CDM, namely at an unprecedented level of $\\sim 4\\sigma$, implyi...

  18. CSIR at TREC 2008 Expert Search Task: Modeling Expert Evidence in Expert Search

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-11-01

    CSIR at TREC 2008 Expert Search Task: Modeling Expert Evidence in Expert Search Jiepu Jiang1, Wei Lu1, Haozhen Zhao2 1 Center for Studies of...AND SUBTITLE CSIR at TREC 2008 Expert Search Task: Modeling Expert Evidence in Expert Search 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM...15. J. Jiang, W. Lu, D. Liu. CSIR at TREC 2007. In Proceedings of the 16th Text REtrieval Conference (TREC 2007), 2007. 16. J. Jiang, W. Lu. IR

  19. Stellar models: firm evidence, open questions and future developments

    CERN Document Server

    Cassisi, Santi

    2009-01-01

    During this last decade our knowledge of the evolutionary properties of stars has significantly improved. This result has been achieved thanks to our improved understanding of the physical behavior of stellar matter in the thermal regimes characteristic of the different stellar mass ranges and/or evolutionary stages. This notwithstanding, the current generation of stellar models is still affected by several, not negligible, uncertainties related to our poor knowledge of some thermodynamical processes and nuclear reaction rates, as well as the efficiency of mixing processes. These drawbacks have to be properly taken into account when comparing theory with observations, to derive evolutionary properties of both resolved and unresolved stellar populations. In this paper we review the major sources of uncertainty along the main evolutionary stages, and emphasize their impact on population synthesis techniques.

  20. A characterization of oil price behavior. Evidence from jump models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gronwald, Marc [Munich Univ. (Germany). Ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research

    2011-11-15

    This paper is concerned with the statistical behavior of oil prices in two ways. It, firstly, applies a combined jump GARCH in order to characterize the behavior of daily, weekly as well as monthly oil prices. Secondly, it relates its empirical results to implications of Hotelling-type resource extraction models. The empirical analysis shows that oil prices are characterized by GARCH as well as conditional jump behavior and that a considerable portion of the total variance is triggered by sudden extreme price movements. This finding implies that, first, oil price signals are not reliable and, as a consequence, both finding optimal extraction paths and decisions regarding the transmission to alternative technologies are likely to be compromised. Second, this behavior is in stark contrast to the notion of deterministic trends in the price of oil. (orig.)

  1. Melanocortin control of energy balance: evidence from rodent models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Jonghe, Bart C; Hayes, Matthew R; Bence, Kendra K

    2011-08-01

    Regulation of energy balance is extremely complex, and involves multiple systems of hormones, neurotransmitters, receptors, and intracellular signals. As data have accumulated over the last two decades, the CNS melanocortin system is now identified as a prominent integrative network of energy balance controls in the mammalian brain. Here, we will review findings from rat and mouse models, which have provided an important framework in which to study melanocortin function. Perhaps most importantly, this review attempts for the first time to summarize recent advances in our understanding of the intracellular signaling pathways thought to mediate the action of melanocortin neurons and peptides in control of longterm energy balance. Special attention will be paid to the roles of MC4R/MC3R, as well as downstream neurotransmitters within forebrain and hindbrain structures that illustrate the distributed control of melanocortin signaling in energy balance. In addition, distinctions and controversy between rodent species will be discussed.

  2. Does malaria affect placental development? Evidence from in vitro models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandra J Umbers

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Malaria in early pregnancy is difficult to study but has recently been associated with fetal growth restriction (FGR. The pathogenic mechanisms underlying malarial FGR are poorly characterized, but may include impaired placental development. We used in vitro methods that model migration and invasion of placental trophoblast into the uterine wall to investigate whether soluble factors released into maternal blood in malaria infection might impair placental development. Because trophoblast invasion is enhanced by a number of hormones and chemokines, and is inhibited by pro-inflammatory cytokines, many of which are dysregulated in malaria in pregnancy, we further compared concentrations of these factors in blood between malaria-infected and uninfected pregnancies. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We measured trophoblast invasion, migration and viability in response to treatment with serum or plasma from two independent cohorts of Papua New Guinean women infected with Plasmodium falciparum or Plasmodium vivax in early pregnancy. Compared to uninfected women, serum and plasma from women with P. falciparum reduced trophoblast invasion (P = .06 and migration (P = .004. P. vivax infection did not alter trophoblast migration (P = .64. The P. falciparum-specific negative effect on placental development was independent of trophoblast viability, but associated with high-density infections. Serum from P. falciparum infected women tended to have lower levels of trophoblast invasion promoting hormones and factors and higher levels of invasion-inhibitory inflammatory factors. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: We demonstrate that in vitro models of placental development can be adapted to indirectly study the impact of malaria in early pregnancy. These infections could result in impaired trophoblast invasion with reduced transformation of maternal spiral arteries due to maternal hormonal and inflammatory disturbances, which may contribute to FGR by

  3. Probabilistic cumulative risk assessment of anti-androgenic pesticides in food

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Müller, Anne Kirstine; Nielsen, Elsa

    2008-01-01

    A cumulative risk assessment of three anti-androgenic pesticides vinclozolin, procymidone and prochloraz in combination has been carried out using an Integrated Probabilistic Risk Assessment (IPRA) model. In the model, variability in both exposure and sensitivity between individuals were combined...

  4. Learning curve of vitrification assessed by cumulative summation test for learning curve (LC-CUSUM).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dessolle, Lionel; Biau, David J; de Larouzière, Vanina; Ravel, Célia; Antoine, Jean-Marie; Daraï, Emile; Mandelbaum, Jacqueline

    2009-09-01

    We used the cumulative summation test for learning curve (LC-CUSUM), a specifically designed statistical tool, to evaluate the first 50 procedures performed by a trainee in vitrification and to provide a usable model for monitoring the learning process of this technique. Given the lack of models to evaluate IVF technologies, the CUSUM methodology could prove useful for quality control in laboratories.

  5. Using PICO to align medical evidence with MDs decision making models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Sullivan, Dympna; Wilk, Szymon; Michalowski, Wojtek; Farion, Ken

    2013-01-01

    Modern medicine is characterized by an "explosion" in clinical research information making practical application of Evidence-Based Medicine (EBM), problematic for many clinicians. We have developed a PICO-(evidence based search strategy focusing on Patient/Population, Intervention, Comparison and Outcome)-based framework for (indexing and retrieving medical evidence and we posit that the use of PICO allows for organizing evidence that is aligned with an MD's decision making model. We describe a study where medical students evaluated our PICO-based approach and results show that students are eager to apply EBM but are hindered by a lack of specialist skills. Students reported that the PICO-based framework for organizing evidence provided an intuitive way of accessing and evaluating evidence and would be useful for their clinical tasks.

  6. Description of quasiparticle and satellite properties via cumulant expansions of the retarded one-particle Green's function

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mayers, Matthew Z.; Hybertsen, Mark S.; Reichman, David R.

    2016-08-01

    A cumulant-based G W approximation for the retarded one-particle Green's function is proposed, motivated by an exact relation between the improper Dyson self-energy and the cumulant generating function. Qualitative aspects of this method are explored within a simple one-electron independent phonon model, where it is seen that the method preserves the energy moment of the spectral weight while also reproducing the exact Green's function in the weak-coupling limit. For the three-dimensional electron gas, this method predicts multiple satellites at the bottom of the band, albeit with inaccurate peak spacing. However, its quasiparticle properties and correlation energies are more accurate than both previous cumulant methods and standard G0W0 . Our results point to features that may be exploited within the framework of cumulant-based methods and suggest promising directions for future exploration and improvements of cumulant-based G W approaches.

  7. First Evidence of Running Cosmic Vacuum: Challenging the Concordance Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solà, Joan; Gómez-Valent, Adrià; de Cruz Pérez, Javier

    2017-02-01

    Despite the fact that a rigid {{Λ }}-term is a fundamental building block of the concordance ΛCDM model, we show that a large class of cosmological scenarios with dynamical vacuum energy density {ρ }{{Λ }} together with a dynamical gravitational coupling G or a possible non-conservation of matter, are capable of seriously challenging the traditional phenomenological success of the ΛCDM. In this paper, we discuss these “running vacuum models” (RVMs), in which {ρ }{{Λ }}={ρ }{{Λ }}(H) consists of a nonvanishing constant term and a series of powers of the Hubble rate. Such generic structure is potentially linked to the quantum field theoretical description of the expanding universe. By performing an overall fit to the cosmological observables SN Ia+BAO+H(z)+LSS+BBN+CMB (in which the WMAP9, Planck 2013, and Planck 2015 data are taken into account), we find that the class of RVMs appears significantly more favored than the ΛCDM, namely, at an unprecedented level of ≳ 4.2σ . Furthermore, the Akaike and Bayesian information criteria confirm that the dynamical RVMs are strongly preferred compared to the conventional rigid {{Λ }}-picture of the cosmic evolution.

  8. Modeling Gasoline Demand with Structural Breaks: New Evidence from Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olusegun Akin Omisakin

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper extends previous studies in modeling and estimating demand for gasoline for Nigeria from 1977 to 2008. The ingenious attempt of this study, contrast to earlier studies on Nigeria and other developing countries, lies in its assumption of structural breaks in the long run relationship among the variables employed. The study tests for the possibility of structural breaks/regime shifts and parameter instability in the gasoline demand function in Nigeria using more recent and robust techniques. While the conventional residual-based cointegration tests employed fail to identify any meaningful long-run relationship in the gasoline function, the Gregory-Hansen structural break cointegration approach confirms the cointegration relationships despite the breakpoints. The elasticity estimates also follow the a priori expectations being inelastic both in the long- and short-run for both price and income. Having identified plausible breaks in the systems, the test does suggest that a structural break in the cointegration vector is important and needs to be taken care of in the specification of gasoline demand functions in Nigeria. It is envisaged, therefore, that substantial policy lessons would be drawn from the findings of this study especially in the current phase of energy industry deregulation in Nigeria.

  9. Universal Off-Equilibrium Scaling of Critical Cumulants in the QCD Phase Diagram

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mukherjee, Swagato; Venugopalan, Raju; Yin, Yi

    2016-11-01

    Exploiting the universality between the QCD critical point and the three-dimensional Ising model, closed form expressions derived for nonequilibrium critical cumulants on the crossover side of the critical point reveal that they can differ in both magnitude and sign from equilibrium expectations. We demonstrate here that key elements of the Kibble-Zurek framework of nonequilibrium phase transitions can be employed to describe the dynamics of these critical cumulants. Our results suggest that observables sensitive to critical dynamics in heavy-ion collisions should be expressible as universal scaling functions, thereby providing powerful model-independent guidance in searches for the QCD critical point.

  10. Long and Short Term Cumulative Structural Priming Effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaschak, Michael P; Kutta, Timothy J; Coyle, Jacqueline M

    We present six experiments that examine cumulative structural priming effects (i.e., structural priming effects that accumulate across many utterances). Of particular interest is whether (1) cumulative priming effects transfer across language production tasks and (2) the transfer of cumulative priming effects across tasks persists over the course of a week. Our data suggest that cumulative structural priming effects do transfer across language production tasks (e.g., from written stem completion to picture description, and from picture description to written stem completion), but only when both tasks are presented in the same experimental session. When cumulative priming effects are established in one task, and the second (changed) task is not presented until a week later, the cumulative priming effects are not observed.

  11. Testing multi-alternative decision models with non-stationary evidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Konstantinos eTsetsos

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Recent research has investigated the process of integrating perceptual evidence towards a decision, converging on a number of sequential sampling choice models, such as variants of race and diffusion models and the non-linear leaky competing accumulator (LCA model. Here we study extensions of these models to multi-alternative choice, considering how well they can account for data from a psychophysical experiment in which the evidence supporting each of the alternatives changes dynamically during the trial, in a way that creates temporal correlations. We find that participants exhibit a tendency to choose an alternative whose evidence profile is temporally anti-correlated with (or dissimilar from that of other alternatives. This advantage of the anti-correlated alternative is well accounted for in the LCA, and provides constraints that challenge several other models of multi-alternative choice.

  12. Literature Evidence on Live Animal Versus Synthetic Models for Training and Assessing Trauma Resuscitation Procedures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hart, Danielle; McNeil, Mary Ann; Hegarty, Cullen; Rush, Robert; Chipman, Jeffery; Clinton, Joseph; Reihsen, Troy; Sweet, Robert

    2016-01-01

    There are many models currently used for teaching and assessing performance of trauma-related airway, breathing, and hemorrhage procedures. Although many programs use live animal (live tissue [LT]) models, there is a congressional effort to transition to the use of nonanimal- based methods (i.e., simulators, cadavers) for military trainees. We examined the existing literature and compared the efficacy, acceptability, and validity of available models with a focus on comparing LT models with synthetic systems. Literature and Internet searches were conducted to examine current models for seven core trauma procedures. We identified 185 simulator systems. Evidence on acceptability and validity of models was sparse. We found only one underpowered study comparing the performance of learners after training on LT versus simulator models for tube thoracostomy and cricothyrotomy. There is insufficient data-driven evidence to distinguish superior validity of LT or any other model for training or assessment of critical trauma procedures.

  13. Investigating the effect among size, growth opportunity and cumulative abnormal returns of the companies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khalil bevali behbahani

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The stockholders and investors require identifying main variables that explain stock return. Being aware of variables and achieving an appropriate model can lead to improve their investment and considering that each wise and economic person’s goal is obtain high and more returns, the current research is sought to investigate the effect of company’s characteristics and the ratio of investment on company’s cumulative abnormal returns. Statistical sample which has been used in current research includes 256 listed companies in Tehran Stock Exchange during 2002 to 2013. Dependent variable of current research is cumulative abnormal return. The independent variables whose effects are investigated on cumulative abnormal return include company’s size, growth opportunity. The data are collected and were inserted in Excel file as information database. Testing hypotheses also has been done from multi-variable regression models based on combined data technique using econometric software Eviews. The findings of the research show that there is a positive and significant relationship between company’s size and company’s cumulative abnormal return. There is also a negative and significant relationship between growth opportunities and company’s cumulative abnormal return.

  14. Analysis of experimental data on correlations between cumulative particles

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vlasov, A.V.; Doroshkevich, E.A.; Leksin, G.A. [Institute of Theoretical and Experimental Physics, Moscow (Russian Federation)] [and others

    1995-04-01

    Experimental data on correlations between cumulative particles are analyzed. A space-time and energy-transfer pattern of hadron-nucleus interaction based on both correlation data and data on the inclusive spectra of cumulative particles is considered. A new variable that is convenient for describing the production of cumulative particles is proposed using the concept of symmetry between the one-particle and multiparticle distributions. 32 refs., 9 figs., 1 tab.

  15. Quasi-gaussian fixed points and factorial cumulants in nuclear multifragmentation

    CERN Document Server

    Lacroix, D

    1996-01-01

    We re-analyze the conditions for the phenomenon of intermittency (self-similar fluctuations) to occur in models of multifragmentation. Analyzing two different mechanisms, the bond-percolation and the ERW (Elattari, Richert and Wagner) statistical fragmentation models, we point out a common quasi-gaussian shape of the total multiplicity distribution in the critical range. The fixed-point property is also observed for the multiplicity of the second bin. Fluctuations are studied using scaled factorial cumulants instead of scaled factorial moments. The second-order cumulant displays the intermittency signal while higher order cumulants are equal to zero, revealing a large information redundancy in scaled factorial moments. A practical criterion is proposed to identify the gaussian feature of light-fragment production, distinguishing between a self-similarity mechanism (ERW) and the superposition of independent sources (percolation).

  16. Analysis of Memory Codes and Cumulative Rehearsal in Observational Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bandura, Albert; And Others

    1974-01-01

    The present study examined the influence of memory codes varying in meaningfulness and retrievability and cumulative rehearsal on retention of observationally learned responses over increasing temporal intervals. (Editor)

  17. Effects of Surface Emitting and Cumulative Collisions on Elliptic Flow

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIU Jian-Li; WU Feng-Juan; ZHANG Jing-Bo; TANG Gui-Xin; HUO Lei

    2008-01-01

    @@ The integral and differential elliptic flow of partons is calculated using the multiphase transport model for Au+Au collisions at centre-of-mass energy √SNN=200 GeV.It is shown that elliptic flow of partons freezing out at early time,which is affected mainly by surface emittance,decreases with time and elliptic flow of partons freezing out at late time,which is dominated by cumulative collisions,increases with time.The elliptic flow of partons freezing out early has a large contribution to the flatting of curve of final differential elliptic flow at large transverse momentum.It is argued that the effect of surface emittance is not neglectable.

  18. The cumulative effect of risk compensation on infection preventive measures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maxin, Daniel; Sega, Laurentiu; Eaton, Lisa

    2016-12-01

    We study several epidemic models (with and without gender structure) that incorporate risk compensation behavior in response to a lower chance of acquiring the infection as a result of preventive measures that are only partially effective. We show that the cumulative risk compensation that occurs between a high risk susceptible and infectious individual may play an important role in whether the implementation of these measures is successful in lowering the epidemic reproductive number. In addition, we show that certain levels of risk compensation may cancel the benefit of the low infection risk practiced by diagnosed infectious individuals when the goal is a reduction of the epidemic reproductive number. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Cumulative Stress and Cortisol Disruption among Black and Hispanic Pregnant Women in an Urban Cohort

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suglia, Shakira Franco; Staudenmayer, John; Cohen, Sheldon; Enlow, Michelle Bosquet; Rich-Edwards, Janet W.; Wright, Rosalind J.

    2010-01-01

    While adult hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenocortical (HPA) axis functioning is thought to be altered by traumatic experiences, little data exist on the effects of cumulative stress on HPA functioning among pregnant women or among specific racial and ethnic groups. Individuals may be increasingly vulnerable to physiological alterations when experiencing cumulative effects of multiple stressors. These effects may be particularly relevant in urban poor communities where exposure to multiple stressors is more prevalent. The goal of this study was to explore the effects of multiple social stressors on HPA axis functioning in a sample of urban Black (n = 68) and Hispanic (n = 132) pregnant women enrolled in the Asthma Coalition on Community, Environment, and Social Stress (ACCESS). Pregnant women were administered the Revised Conflict Tactics Scale (R-CTS) survey to assess interpersonal violence, the Experiences of Discrimination (EOD) survey, the Crisis in Family Systems-Revised (CRISYS-R) negative life events survey, and the My Exposure to Violence (ETV) survey, which ascertains exposure to community violence. A cumulative stress measure was derived from these instruments. Salivary cortisol samples were collected five times per day over three days to assess area under the curve (AUC), morning change, and basal awakening response in order to characterize diurnal salivary cortisol patterns. Repeated measures mixed models, stratified by race/ethnicity, were performed adjusting for education level, age, smoking status, body mass index and weeks pregnant at time of cortisol sampling. The majority of Hispanic participants (57%) had low cumulative stress exposure, while the majority of Black participants had intermediate (35%) or high (41%) cumulative stress exposure. Results showed that among Black but not Hispanic women, cumulative stress was associated with lower morning cortisol levels, including a flatter waking to bedtime rhythm. These analyses suggest that the combined

  20. Cumulative Stress and Cortisol Disruption among Black and Hispanic Pregnant Women in an Urban Cohort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suglia, Shakira Franco; Staudenmayer, John; Cohen, Sheldon; Enlow, Michelle Bosquet; Rich-Edwards, Janet W; Wright, Rosalind J

    2010-12-01

    While adult hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenocortical (HPA) axis functioning is thought to be altered by traumatic experiences, little data exist on the effects of cumulative stress on HPA functioning among pregnant women or among specific racial and ethnic groups. Individuals may be increasingly vulnerable to physiological alterations when experiencing cumulative effects of multiple stressors. These effects may be particularly relevant in urban poor communities where exposure to multiple stressors is more prevalent. The goal of this study was to explore the effects of multiple social stressors on HPA axis functioning in a sample of urban Black (n = 68) and Hispanic (n = 132) pregnant women enrolled in the Asthma Coalition on Community, Environment, and Social Stress (ACCESS). Pregnant women were administered the Revised Conflict Tactics Scale (R-CTS) survey to assess interpersonal violence, the Experiences of Discrimination (EOD) survey, the Crisis in Family Systems-Revised (CRISYS-R) negative life events survey, and the My Exposure to Violence (ETV) survey, which ascertains exposure to community violence. A cumulative stress measure was derived from these instruments. Salivary cortisol samples were collected five times per day over three days to assess area under the curve (AUC), morning change, and basal awakening response in order to characterize diurnal salivary cortisol patterns. Repeated measures mixed models, stratified by race/ethnicity, were performed adjusting for education level, age, smoking status, body mass index and weeks pregnant at time of cortisol sampling. The majority of Hispanic participants (57%) had low cumulative stress exposure, while the majority of Black participants had intermediate (35%) or high (41%) cumulative stress exposure. Results showed that among Black but not Hispanic women, cumulative stress was associated with lower morning cortisol levels, including a flatter waking to bedtime rhythm. These analyses suggest that the combined

  1. County-level cumulative environmental quality associated with cancer incidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jagai, Jyotsna S; Messer, Lynne C; Rappazzo, Kristen M; Gray, Christine L; Grabich, Shannon C; Lobdell, Danelle T

    2017-08-01

    Individual environmental exposures are associated with cancer development; however, environmental exposures occur simultaneously. The Environmental Quality Index (EQI) is a county-level measure of cumulative environmental exposures that occur in 5 domains. The EQI was linked to county-level annual age-adjusted cancer incidence rates from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program state cancer profiles. All-site cancer and the top 3 site-specific cancers for male and female subjects were considered. Incident rate differences (IRDs; annual rate difference per 100,000 persons) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using fixed-slope, random intercept multilevel linear regression models. Associations were assessed with domain-specific indices and analyses were stratified by rural/urban status. Comparing the highest quintile/poorest environmental quality with the lowest quintile/best environmental quality for overall EQI, all-site county-level cancer incidence rate was positively associated with poor environmental quality overall (IRD, 38.55; 95% CI, 29.57-47.53) and for male (IRD, 32.60; 95% CI, 16.28-48.91) and female (IRD, 30.34; 95% CI, 20.47-40.21) subjects, indicating a potential increase in cancer incidence with decreasing environmental quality. Rural/urban stratified models demonstrated positive associations comparing the highest with the lowest quintiles for all strata, except the thinly populated/rural stratum and in the metropolitan/urbanized stratum. Prostate and breast cancer demonstrated the strongest positive associations with poor environmental quality. We observed strong positive associations between the EQI and all-site cancer incidence rates, and associations differed by rural/urban status and environmental domain. Research focusing on single environmental exposures in cancer development may not address the broader environmental context in which cancers develop, and future research should address cumulative environmental

  2. Bayesian model selection: Evidence estimation based on DREAM simulation and bridge sampling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Volpi, Elena; Schoups, Gerrit; Firmani, Giovanni; Vrugt, Jasper A.

    2017-04-01

    Bayesian inference has found widespread application in Earth and Environmental Systems Modeling, providing an effective tool for prediction, data assimilation, parameter estimation, uncertainty analysis and hypothesis testing. Under multiple competing hypotheses, the Bayesian approach also provides an attractive alternative to traditional information criteria (e.g. AIC, BIC) for model selection. The key variable for Bayesian model selection is the evidence (or marginal likelihood) that is the normalizing constant in the denominator of Bayes theorem; while it is fundamental for model selection, the evidence is not required for Bayesian inference. It is computed for each hypothesis (model) by averaging the likelihood function over the prior parameter distribution, rather than maximizing it as by information criteria; the larger a model evidence the more support it receives among a collection of hypothesis as the simulated values assign relatively high probability density to the observed data. Hence, the evidence naturally acts as an Occam's razor, preferring simpler and more constrained models against the selection of over-fitted ones by information criteria that incorporate only the likelihood maximum. Since it is not particularly easy to estimate the evidence in practice, Bayesian model selection via the marginal likelihood has not yet found mainstream use. We illustrate here the properties of a new estimator of the Bayesian model evidence, which provides robust and unbiased estimates of the marginal likelihood; the method is coined Gaussian Mixture Importance Sampling (GMIS). GMIS uses multidimensional numerical integration of the posterior parameter distribution via bridge sampling (a generalization of importance sampling) of a mixture distribution fitted to samples of the posterior distribution derived from the DREAM algorithm (Vrugt et al., 2008; 2009). Some illustrative examples are presented to show the robustness and superiority of the GMIS estimator with

  3. Mineral chemistry and petrology of highly magnesian ultramafic cumulates from the Sarve-Abad (Sawlava) ophiolites (Kurdistan, NW Iran): New evidence for boninitic magmatism in intra-oceanic fore-arc setting in the Neo-Tethys between Arabia and Iran

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allahyari, Khalil; Saccani, Emilio; Rahimzadeh, Bahman; Zeda, Ottavia

    2014-01-01

    The Sarve-Abad (Sawlava) ophiolitic complex consists of several tectonically dismembered ophiolitic sequences. They are located along the Main Zagros Thrust Zone, which marks the ophiolitic suture between the Arabian and Sanandaj-Sirjan continental blocks. They represent a portion of the southern Neo-Tethyan oceanic lithosphere, which originally existed between the Arabian (to the south) and Eurasian (to the north) continental margins. The Sarve-Abad ophiolites include cumulitic lherzolites bearing minor dunite and chromitite lenses in places. The main rock-forming minerals in ultramafic cumulates are cumulus olivine and inter-cumulus clinopyroxene and orthopyroxene. Minor (<5%) chromian spinel occurs as both cumulus and inter-cumulus phases.

  4. Cumulative social disadvantage and child health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauman, Laurie J; Silver, Ellen J; Stein, Ruth E K

    2006-04-01

    Disparities in child health are a major public health concern. However, it is unclear whether these are predominantly the result of low income, race, or other social risk factors that may contribute to their health disadvantage. Although others have examined the effects of the accumulation of risk factors, this methodology has not been applied to child health. We tested 4 social risk factors (poverty, minority race/ethnicity, low parental education, and not living with both biological parents) to assess whether they have cumulative effects on child health and examined whether access to health care reduced health disparities. We analyzed data on 57,553 children low parental education, and single-parent household) were consistently associated with child health. These were summed, generating the Social Disadvantage Index (range: 0-3). A total of 43.6% of children had no social disadvantages, 30.8% had 1, 15.6% had 2, and 10.0% had all 3. Compared with those with no social disadvantages, the odds ratios (ORs) of being in "good, fair, or poor health" (versus "excellent or very good") were 1.95 for 1 risk, 3.22 for 2 risks, and 4.06 for 3 risks. ORs of having a chronic condition increased from 1.25 (1 risk) to 1.60 (2 risks) to 2.11 (3 risks). ORs for activity limitation were 1.51 (1 risk) to 2.14 (2 risks) and 2.88 (3 risks). Controlling for health insurance did not affect these findings. The accumulation of social disadvantage among children was strongly associated with poorer child health and having insurance did not reduce the observed health disparities.

  5. Automated Eukaryotic Gene Structure Annotation Using EVidenceModeler and the Program to Assemble Spliced Alignments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Haas, B J; Salzberg, S L; Zhu, W; Pertea, M; Allen, J E; Orvis, J; White, O; Buell, C R; Wortman, J R

    2007-12-10

    EVidenceModeler (EVM) is presented as an automated eukaryotic gene structure annotation tool that reports eukaryotic gene structures as a weighted consensus of all available evidence. EVM, when combined with the Program to Assemble Spliced Alignments (PASA), yields a comprehensive, configurable annotation system that predicts protein-coding genes and alternatively spliced isoforms. Our experiments on both rice and human genome sequences demonstrate that EVM produces automated gene structure annotation approaching the quality of manual curation.

  6. Evidence-based management of otitis media: a 5S model approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wasson, J D; Yung, M W

    2015-02-01

    The 5S model proposes five hierarchical levels (systems, summaries, synopses, syntheses and studies) of pre-appraised evidence to guide evidence-based practice. This review aimed to identify and summarise pre-appraised evidence at the highest available 5S level for the management of different subsets of otitis media: acute otitis media, otitis media with effusion, chronic suppurative otitis media and cholesteatoma in both adults and children. Data sources were pre-appraised evidence resources. Evidence freely available from sources at the highest available level of the 5S model were summarised for this review. System level evidence exists for acute otitis media and otitis media with effusion. Summary level evidence exists for recurrent acute otitis media and medical management of chronic suppurative otitis media. There is an absence of randomised controlled trials to prove the efficacy of surgical management of chronic suppurative otitis media and cholesteatoma. Until randomised controlled trial data are generated, consensus publications on the surgical management of chronic suppurative otitis media and cholesteatoma should be used to guide best practice.

  7. A NOVEL GRAPH MODEL FOR E-MAIL FORENSICS: EVIDENCE ACTIVITY ANALYSIS GRAPH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sridhar Neralla

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available This work puts forward a novel technique for evidence analysis that assist cyber forensics expert for analyzing cyber crime episode in an effective manner. Novelty in Evidence Activity Analysis Graph is reflection of activities involved in the cyber crime that are represented as nodes along with stylometric analysis. In this pieceof work email based cyber crime incident is considered for study and that incident is represented in Evidence Activity Analysis Graph to fix the suspect. Comparisons between various graphs that are used in cyber forensics were also discussed in this paper. This model establishes relationships between various activities that were happened in the cyber crime.

  8. Behavior and finite-size effects of the sixth order cumulant in the three-dimensional Ising universality class

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, Xue; Chen, Li-Zhu; Wu, Yuan-Fang

    2016-09-01

    The high-order cumulants of conserved charges are suggested to be sensitive observables to search for the critical point of Quantum Chromodynamics (QCD). This has been calculated to the sixth order in experiments. Corresponding theoretical studies on the sixth order cumulant are necessary. Based on the universality of the critical behavior, we study the temperature dependence of the sixth order cumulant of the order parameter using the parametric representation of the three-dimensional Ising model, which is expected to be in the same universality class as QCD. The density plot of the sign of the sixth order cumulant is shown on the temperature and external magnetic field plane. We found that at non-zero external magnetic field, when the critical point is approached from the crossover side, the sixth order cumulant has a negative valley. The width of the negative valley narrows with decreasing external field. Qualitatively, the trend is similar to the result of Monte Carlo simulation on a finite-size system. Quantitatively, the temperature of the sign change is different. Through Monte Carlo simulation of the Ising model, we calculated the sixth order cumulant of different sizes of systems. We discuss the finite-size effects on the temperature at which the cumulant changes sign. Supported by Fund Project of Sichuan Provincial Department of Education (16ZB0339), Fund Project of Chengdu Technological University for Doctor (2016RC004), Major State Basic Research Development Program of China (2014CB845402) and National Natural Science Foundation of China (11405088, 11221504)

  9. Sensitivity Tests for Cumulative Damage Function (CDF) for the PGSFR

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Choi, Chiwoong; Ha, Kwiseok [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-10-15

    A safety analysis including the design basis and beyond design basis events has been conducted using MARS-LMR. Previous safety limits were based on temperature and the duration time. However, the cumulative damage function (CDF) will be used as the safety limit to evaluate the fuel cladding integrity. Recently, a 4S reactor developed by Toshiba used the same approach for a safety analysis. Therefore, the development a CDF is necessary to evaluate the safety limit for the PGSFR safety analyses. The major keys in the CDF model are behavior of fuel and cladding. It is not easy to obtain a metallic fuel database for a CDF model including the cladding materials. Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) in the United States is the only major leading group for metallic fuel experiments. They conducted various experiments with various facilities and experimental reactors, for example, EBR-II, FFTF, and TREAT. In addition, they have recently been trying to extend their oxide fuel based a severe accident code, SAS4A/SASSYS, to a metallic fuel version using their metallic fuel database. In this study, the preliminary CDF model was supplemented in the MARS-LMR code. The major source was the SAS4A/SASSYS modules related to fuel and cladding transient behaviors.. In addition, a sensitivity test for some parameters in the CDF model was conducted to evaluate the capability of these models and to find the major parameter of fuel failure. The Cumulative Damage Function is a good indicator for a fuel failure. The major parameters for the CDF model are selected including cladding and fuel temperatures, initial pressure and volume in the gas plenum, clad thickness, and fission power in the fuel pin. The most sensitive parameter is the cladding temperature. Also, cladding thickness and gas pressure in the fuel pin are effective parameters on the CDF. During an actual transient, various parameter including sensitivity test parameters in this study will be changed simultaneously. This study can

  10. Cumulative Effects of Human Activities on Marine Mammal Populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-09-30

    1 DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. Cumulative Effects of Human Activities on Marine Mammal ...marine mammals . OBJECTIVES The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine has convened a volunteer committee that will...Review the present scientific understanding of cumulative effects of anthropogenic stressors on marine mammals with a focus on anthropogenic sound

  11. Cumulative Estrogen Exposure and Prospective Memory in Older Women

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hesson, Jacqueline

    2012-01-01

    This study looked at cumulative lifetime estrogen exposure, as estimated with a mathematical index (Index of Cumulative Estrogen Exposure (ICEE)) that included variables (length of time on estrogen therapy, age at menarche and menopause, postmenopausal body mass index, time since menopause, nulliparity and duration of breastfeeding) known to…

  12. Estimation of cumulative exposures to naphtha at an automobile fuel-injector manufacturing plant.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rocskay, A Z; Robins, T G; Echeverria, D; Schork, M A; Seixas, N S; White, R F; Proctor, S P

    1993-09-01

    As part of an epidemiologic study of neuropsychological and renal effects of occupational exposure to organic solvents, estimates of cumulative exposure to naphtha were derived for workers at an automobile fuel-injector manufacturing plant. The approach to exposure estimation was relatively unusual in three respects: (1) a marked association between indoor naphtha air concentration and outdoor temperature was modeled and applied to detailed historical temperature data to calculate cumulative exposure estimates; (2) the large number of investigator-generated air samples allowed the use of analyses of variance to compare alternative job-grouping schemes; and (3) the young age of the plant and few process changes allowed for historical exposure estimates with a high degree of confidence. The derived estimates of cumulative exposure appear to offer a firm basis for epidemiologic analyses of exposure-health outcome relationships.

  13. Effects of multiple context and cumulative stress on urban children's adjustment in elementary school.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morales, Julie R; Guerra, Nancy G

    2006-01-01

    Using longitudinal data collected over 2 years on a sample of 2,745 urban elementary school children (1st-6th graders, ages 6-11 years) from economically disadvantaged communities, effects of stressful experiences within 3 contexts (school, family, neighborhood), cumulative stress, and multiple context stress on 3 indices of children's adjustment (achievement, depression, and aggression) were examined. All 3 stressor contexts were related contemporaneously and longitudinally to negative outcomes across adjustment measures, with differential paths in each predictive model. Cumulative stress was linearly related to increases in adjustment problems but multiple context stress was not related to problematic adjustment beyond effects of cumulative stress alone. The important influence of life events stress on children's adjustment in disadvantaged communities is discussed.

  14. Role of sulfite additives in wine induced asthma: single dose and cumulative dose studies

    OpenAIRE

    Vally, H; Thompson, P.

    2001-01-01

    BACKGROUND—Wine appears to be a significant trigger for asthma. Although sulfite additives have been implicated as a major cause of wine induced asthma, direct evidence is limited. Two studies were undertaken to assess sulfite reactivity in wine sensitive asthmatics. The first study assessed sensitivity to sulfites in wine using a single dose sulfited wine challenge protocol followed by a double blind, placebo controlled challenge. In the second study a cumulative dose su...

  15. A new family of cumulative indexes for measuring scientific performance.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcin Kozak

    Full Text Available In this paper we propose a new family of cumulative indexes for measuring scientific performance which can be applied to many metrics, including h index and its variants (here we apply it to the h index, h(2 index and Google Scholar's i10 index. These indexes follow the general principle of repeating the index calculation for the same publication set. Using bibliometric data and reviewer scores for accepted and rejected fellowship applicants we examine how valid the cumulative variant is compared to the original variant. These analyses showed that the cumulative indexes result in higher correlations with the reviewer scores than their original variants. Thus, the cumulative indexes better reflect the assessments by peers than the original variants and are useful extensions of the original indexes. In contrast to many other measures of scientific performance proposed up to now, the cumulative indexes seem not only to be effective, but they are also easy to understand and calculate.

  16. Probabilistic cumulative risk assessment of anti-androgenic pesticides in food.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Müller, A.K.; Bosgra, S.; Boon, P.E.; van der Voet, H.; Nielsen, E.; Ladefoged, O.

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, we present a cumulative risk assessment of three anti-androgenic pesticides (vinclozolin, procymidone and prochloraz) using the relative potency factor (RPF) approach and an integrated probabilistic risk assessment (IPRA) model. RPFs for each substance were estimated for three reprodu

  17. Probabilistic cumulative risk assessment of anti-androgenic pesticides in food

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Muller, A.K.; Bosgra, S.; Boon, P.E.; Voet, van der H.; Nielsen, E.; Ladefoged, O.

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, we present a cumulative risk assessment of three anti-androgenic pesticides (vinclozolin, procymidone and prochloraz) using the relative potency factor (RPF) approach and an integrated probabilistic risk assessment (IPRA) model. RPFs for each substance were estimated for three reprodu

  18. Scenario dependency of the transient climate response to cumulative emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, Katherine; Williams, Ric; Oschlies, Andreas

    2017-04-01

    The transient climate response to emissions (TCRE), in relating surface temperature changes to cumulative carbon emissions, provides a means of estimating carbon budgets from global warming benchmarks. Current Earth System Model results indicate that the TCRE is linear and scenario-independent. We explore the sensitivity of the TCRE to scenario and model parameter uncertainties using 8 configurations of the UVic Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity, forced by 2 twenty-first-century emissions scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5). We find that the TCRE is higher under RCP 4.5 than 8.5 by 0.3-0.8 K/1000 Pg C and shows opposing nonlinear tendencies in these scenarios: an increase of 0.15-0.5 K/1000 Pg C over RCP 4.5 and a decrease of 0-0.7 K/1000 Pg C over RCP 8.5. These differences are robust across model configurations with perturbed land and ocean parametrizations and are the result of the decreased efficiency of heat transport into the deep ocean under decelerating emissions.

  19. Nonsymbolic number and cumulative area representations contribute shared and unique variance to symbolic math competence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lourenco, Stella F; Bonny, Justin W; Fernandez, Edmund P; Rao, Sonia

    2012-11-13

    Humans and nonhuman animals share the capacity to estimate, without counting, the number of objects in a set by relying on an approximate number system (ANS). Only humans, however, learn the concepts and operations of symbolic mathematics. Despite vast differences between these two systems of quantification, neural and behavioral findings suggest functional connections. Another line of research suggests that the ANS is part of a larger, more general system of magnitude representation. Reports of cognitive interactions and common neural coding for number and other magnitudes such as spatial extent led us to ask whether, and how, nonnumerical magnitude interfaces with mathematical competence. On two magnitude comparison tasks, college students estimated (without counting or explicit calculation) which of two arrays was greater in number or cumulative area. They also completed a battery of standardized math tests. Individual differences in both number and cumulative area precision (measured by accuracy on the magnitude comparison tasks) correlated with interindividual variability in math competence, particularly advanced arithmetic and geometry, even after accounting for general aspects of intelligence. Moreover, analyses revealed that whereas number precision contributed unique variance to advanced arithmetic, cumulative area precision contributed unique variance to geometry. Taken together, these results provide evidence for shared and unique contributions of nonsymbolic number and cumulative area representations to formally taught mathematics. More broadly, they suggest that uniquely human branches of mathematics interface with an evolutionarily primitive general magnitude system, which includes partially overlapping representations of numerical and nonnumerical magnitude.

  20. Cumulative family risk predicts increases in adjustment difficulties across early adolescence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buehler, Cheryl; Gerard, Jean M

    2013-06-01

    Family is an important socialization context for youth as they move through early adolescence. A significant feature of this complex socialization context is the accumulation of potential family risk factors that may compromise youth adjustment. This study examined cumulative family risk and adolescents' adjustment difficulties in 416 two-parent families using four waves of annual longitudinal data (51% female youth). Risk factors in four family domains were examined: socioeconomic, parents' psychological realm, marital, and parenting. Cumulative family risk experienced while in 6th grade was associated concurrently with daughters' higher internalizing problems and with increased internalizing problems during early adolescence. Cumulative family risk was associated concurrently with sons' higher externalizing problems and with daughters' increased externalizing problems over time. Cumulative family risk was associated concurrently with lower grades and with declining grades over time for both daughters and sons. The number of risk domains also was associated with youths' adjustment difficulties during early adolescence, providing evidence that risk in two-parent families involves more than ineffective parenting. These findings suggest a critical need to provide strong support for families in reducing a variety of stressors across multiple family domains as their children traverse early adolescence.

  1. The Seemingly Quixotic Pursuit of a Cumulative Psychological Science: Introduction to the Special Issue

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curran, Patrick J.

    2009-01-01

    The following manuscript is the final accepted manuscript. It has not been subjected to the final copyediting, fact-checking, and proofreading required for formal publication. It is not the definitive, publisher-authenticated version. The American Psychological Association and its Council of Editors disclaim any responsibility or liabilities for errors or omissions of this manuscript version, any version derived from this manuscript by NIH, or other third parties. The published version is available at www.apa.org/journals/met. The goal of any empirical science is to pursue the construction of a cumulative base of knowledge upon which the future of the science may be built. However, there is mixed evidence that the science of psychology can accurately be characterized by such a cumulative progression. Indeed, some argue that the development of a truly cumulative psychological science is not possible using the current paradigms of hypothesis testing in single-study designs. The author explores this controversy as a framework to introduce the six papers that make up this special issue that is focused on the integration of data and empirical findings across multiple studies. The author proposes that the methods and techniques described in this set of papers can significantly propel us forward in our ongoing quest to build a cumulative psychological science. PMID:19485622

  2. Spatial prediction of landslide susceptibility in parts of Garhwal Himalaya, India, using the weight of evidence modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guri, Pardeep Kumar; Ray, P K Champati; Patel, Ramesh Chandra

    2015-06-01

    Garhwal Himalaya in northern India has emerged as one of the most prominent hot spots of landslide occurrences in the Himalaya mainly due to geological causes related to mountain building processes, steep topography and frequent occurrences of extreme precipitation events. As this region has many pilgrimage and tourist centres, it is visited by hundreds of thousands of people every year, and in the recent past, there has been rapid development to provide adequate roads and building infrastructure. Additionally, attempts are also made to harness hydropower by constructing tunnels, dams and reservoirs and thus altering vulnerable slopes at many places. As a result, the overall risk due to landslide hazards has increased many folds and, therefore, an attempt was made to assess landslide susceptibility using 'Weights of Evidence (WofE)', a well-known bivariate statistical modelling technique implemented in a much improved way using remote sensing and Geographic Information System. This methodology has dual advantage as it demonstrates how to derive critical parameters related to geology, geomorphology, slope, land use and most importantly temporal landslide distribution in one of the data scarce region of the world. Secondly, it allows to experiment with various combination of parameters to assess their cumulative effect on landslides. In total, 15 parameters related to geology, geomorphology, terrain, hydrology and anthropogenic factors and 2 different landslide inventories (prior to 2007 and 2008-2011) were prepared from high-resolution Indian remote sensing satellite data (Cartosat-1 and Resourcesat-1) and were validated by field investigation. Several combinations of parameters were carried out using WofE modelling, and finally using best combination of eight parameters, 76.5 % of overall landslides were predicted in 24 % of the total area susceptible to landslide occurrences. The study has highlighted that using such methodology landslide susceptibility assessment

  3. Young cumulate complex beneath Veniaminof caldera, Aleutian arc, dated by zircon in erupted plutonic blocks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bacon, Charles R.; Sisson, Thomas W.; Mazdab, Frank K.

    2007-06-01

    Mount Veniaminof volcano, Alaska Peninsula, provides an opportunity to relate Quaternary volcanic rocks to a coeval intrusive complex. Veniaminof erupted tholeiitic basalt through dacite in the past ˜260 k.y. Gabbro, diorite, and miarolitic granodiorite blocks, ejected 3700 14C yr B.P. in the most recent caldera-forming eruption, are fragments of a shallow intrusive complex of cumulate mush and segregated vapor-saturated residual melts. Sensitive high-resolution ion microprobe (SHRIMP) analyses define 238U-230Th isochron ages of 17.6 ± 2.7 ka, 5 +11/-10 ka, and 10.2 ± 4.0 ka (2σ) for zircon in two granodiorites and a diorite, respectively. Sparse zircons from two gabbros give 238U-230Th model ages of 36 ± 8 ka and 26 ± 7 ka. Zircons from granodiorite and diorite crystallized in the presence of late magmatic aqueous fluid. Although historic eruptions have been weakly explosive Strombolian fountaining and small lava effusions, the young ages of plutonic blocks, as well as late Holocene dacite pumice, are evidence that the intrusive complex remains active and that evolved magmas can segregate at shallow levels to fuel explosive eruptions.

  4. Cumulative Causation of Rural Migration and Initial Peri-Urbanization in China*

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hao, Lingxin

    2014-01-01

    This paper posits that rural migration feeds the high demand for cheap labor in peri-urbanization, which is driven by globalization, flows of foreign capital, and entrepreneurial local governments. While the gravity model and push/pull perspective ignore the dynamics of migratory course, we use the cumulative causation of migration theory to conceptualize social expectations for outmigration and social resources from migrant networks in destinations. Four major findings are drawn from this demographic analysis based on micro data from China’s 2000 Census. First, the expectation of outmigration significantly increases outmigration, and this effect is independent of push factors. Second, foreign direct investment (FDI) contributes to attracting rural labor migrants from other provinces to peri-urban areas as it does to cities. Third, social resources from migrant networks play an important role in attracting rural labor migrants to both city and noncity destinations. Fourth, the importance of wage differentials declines in gravitating rural labor migrants to peri-urban areas. These findings provide tentative evidence that rural labor migration is indispensable during initial peri-urbanization. Infused with flows of FDI and entrepreneurial local governments, rural migration has created a favorable initial condition for peri-urbanization. PMID:25525564

  5. Cumulative Causation of Rural Migration and Initial Peri-Urbanization in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hao, Lingxin

    2012-01-01

    This paper posits that rural migration feeds the high demand for cheap labor in peri-urbanization, which is driven by globalization, flows of foreign capital, and entrepreneurial local governments. While the gravity model and push/pull perspective ignore the dynamics of migratory course, we use the cumulative causation of migration theory to conceptualize social expectations for outmigration and social resources from migrant networks in destinations. Four major findings are drawn from this demographic analysis based on micro data from China's 2000 Census. First, the expectation of outmigration significantly increases outmigration, and this effect is independent of push factors. Second, foreign direct investment (FDI) contributes to attracting rural labor migrants from other provinces to peri-urban areas as it does to cities. Third, social resources from migrant networks play an important role in attracting rural labor migrants to both city and noncity destinations. Fourth, the importance of wage differentials declines in gravitating rural labor migrants to peri-urban areas. These findings provide tentative evidence that rural labor migration is indispensable during initial peri-urbanization. Infused with flows of FDI and entrepreneurial local governments, rural migration has created a favorable initial condition for peri-urbanization.

  6. Co-occurrence between marital aggression and parents' child abuse potential: the impact of cumulative stress.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Margolin, Gayla; Gordis, Elana B

    2003-06-01

    Evidence suggests that marital aggression and parent-to-child aggression sometimes occur within the same family, but little is known about why certain families are vulnerable to multiple forms of family aggression. According to family systems theory, negative affect in one family relationship can spread to other family relationships. According to family stress theory, aversive circumstances increase families' vulnerability to disruption and conflict. Based on these theories, the present study tests the hypothesis that cumulative family stresses potentiate the association between marital aggression and parents' child abuse potential. In a series of additive interactional models, husband-to-wife aggression was linked to husbands' and wives' child abuse potential in a context of both high financial stress and high parenting stress but was not linked in a context of low stress. Wife-to-husband aggression was linked to wives', but not husbands', child abuse potential in a context of high stress. These results highlight the potential role of contextual factors in the pervasiveness of aggressive exchanges across multiple family subsystems.

  7. Longhi Games, Internal Reservoirs, and Cumulate Porosity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morse, S. A.

    2009-05-01

    Fe in plagioclase at an early age, T-rollers (or not) on the Di-Trid boundary in Fo-Di-Sil, the mantle solidus, origins of anorthosites, esoteric uses of Schreinemakers rules and many more topics are all fresh and pleasant memories of John Longhi's prolific and creative work. The Fram-Longhi experimental effect of pressure on plagioclase partitioning with liquid in mafic rocks became essential to an understanding of multiphase Rayleigh fractionation of plagioclase in big layered intrusions. Only by using the pressure effect could I find a good equation through the data for the Kiglapait intrusion, and that result among others required the existence with probability 1.0 of an internal reservoir (Morse, JPet 2008). Knowledge of cumulate porosity is a crucial key to the understanding of layered igneous rocks. We seek both the initial (inverse packing fraction) and residual porosity to find the time and process path from sedimentation to solidification. In the Kiglapait Lower Zone we have a robust estimate of mean residual porosity from the modes of the excluded phases augite, oxides, sulfide, and apatite. To this we apply the maximum variance of plagioclase composition (the An range) to find an algorithm that extends through the Upper Zone and to other intrusions. Of great importance is that all these measurements were made in grain mounts concentrated from typically about 200 g of core or hand specimen, hence the represented sample volume is thousands of times greater than for a thin section. The resulting distribution and scatter of the An range is novel and remarkable. It is V-shaped in the logarithmic representation of stratigraphic height, running from about 20 mole % at both ends (base to top of the Layered Series) to near-zero at 99 PCS. The intercept of the porosity-An range relation gives An range = 3.5 % at zero residual porosity. Petrographic analysis reveals that for PCS less than 95 and greater than 99.9, the An range is intrinsic, i.e. pre-cumulus, for

  8. Comparative and Cumulative Energetic Costs of Odontocete Responses to Anthropogenic Disturbance

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-09-30

    predictive bioenergetic model of the metabolic costs of sound production across several cetacean species from the determination of the mass of sound...click sound production and the cost of sound production bioenergetic model will be completed, the estimates of cumulative impacts will be initiated...Consulting, Inc., and Maureen (Moe) Flannery at the California Academy of Sciences. These data will then be incorporated into a bioenergetic model

  9. A Model of Federated Evidence Fusion for Real-time Urban Traffic State Estimation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    In order to make full use of heterogeneous multi-sensor data to serve urban intelligent transportation systems, a real-time urban traffic state fusion model was proposed, named federated evidence fusion model. The model improves conventional D-S evidence theory in temporal domain, such that it can satisfy the requirement of real-time processing and utilize traffic detection information more efficaciously. The model frame and computational procedures are given. In addition, a generalized reliability weight matrix of evidence is also presented to increase the accuracy of estimation. After that, a simulation test is presented to explain the advantage of the proposed method in comparison with conventional D-S evidence theory. Besides, the validity of the model is proven by the use of the data of loop detectors and GPS probe vehicles collected from an urban link in Shanghai. Results of the experiment show that the proposed approach can well embody and track traffic state at character level in real-time conditions.

  10. A validation of a posture matching approach for the determination of 3D cumulative back loads.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sutherland, Chad A; Albert, Wayne J; Wrigley, Allan T; Callaghan, Jack P

    2008-03-01

    The purpose of this project was to investigate the amount of error in calculating cumulative lumbar spine kinetics using a posture matching approach (3DMatch) compared to a 3D coordinate electromagnetic tracking approach (FASTRAK). Six subjects were required to perform five repeats each of two symmetrical and two asymmetrical lifts while being simultaneously recorded from 4 camera views at viewing angles of 0 degrees , 45 degrees , 60 degrees and 90 degrees to the sagittal plane while wearing eight FASTRAK sensors to define an 8 segment rigid link model (RLM) of the head, arms, and trunk. Four hundred and eighty lifts (6 subjects x20 lifts x4 camera views) were analyzed using the 3DMatch posture-matching program to calculate the following cumulative loads at the L4/L5 joint: compression, anterior shear, posterior shear, reaction shear and extension moment. The errors in cumulative load calculation were determined as the difference between the values calculated for the same lifts using a 3D RLM that used electromagnetic motion tracking sensors (FASTRAK) positioned at the segment center of masses as model inputs. No significant difference (pposture matching by trained users can provide reasonable 3D data to calculate cumulative low back loads with a biomechanical model.

  11. High selection pressure promotes increase in cumulative adaptive culture.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carolin Vegvari

    Full Text Available The evolution of cumulative adaptive culture has received widespread interest in recent years, especially the factors promoting its occurrence. Current evolutionary models suggest that an increase in population size may lead to an increase in cultural complexity via a higher rate of cultural transmission and innovation. However, relatively little attention has been paid to the role of natural selection in the evolution of cultural complexity. Here we use an agent-based simulation model to demonstrate that high selection pressure in the form of resource pressure promotes the accumulation of adaptive culture in spite of small population sizes and high innovation costs. We argue that the interaction of demography and selection is important, and that neither can be considered in isolation. We predict that an increase in cultural complexity is most likely to occur under conditions of population pressure relative to resource availability. Our model may help to explain why culture change can occur without major environmental change. We suggest that understanding the interaction between shifting selective pressures and demography is essential for explaining the evolution of cultural complexity.

  12. A Game-Based Approach for PCTL* Stochastic Model Checking with Evidence

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yang Liu; Xuan-Dong Li; Yan Ma

    2016-01-01

    Stochastic model checking is a recent extension and generalization of the classical model checking, which focuses on quantitatively checking the temporal property of a system model. PCTL* is one of the important quantitative property specification languages, which is strictly more expressive than either PCTL (probabilistic computation tree logic) or LTL (linear temporal logic) with probability bounds. At present, PCTL* stochastic model checking algorithm is very complicated, and cannot provide any relevant explanation of why a formula does or does not hold in a given model. For dealing with this problem, an intuitive and succinct approach for PCTL* stochastic model checking with evidence is put forward in this paper, which includes: presenting the game semantics for PCTL* in release-PNF (release-positive normal form), defining the PCTL*stochastic model checking game, using strategy solving in game to achieve the PCTL*stochastic model checking, and refining winning strategy as the evidence to certify stochastic model checking result. The soundness and the completeness of game-based PCTL* stochastic model checking are proved, and its complexity matches the known lower and upper bounds. The game-based PCTL*stochastic model checking algorithm is implemented in a visual prototype tool, and its feasibility is demonstrated by an illustrative example.

  13. Cumulative stress and autonomic dysregulation in a community sample.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lampert, Rachel; Tuit, Keri; Hong, Kwang-Ik; Donovan, Theresa; Lee, Forrester; Sinha, Rajita

    2016-05-01

    Whether cumulative stress, including both chronic stress and adverse life events, is associated with decreased heart rate variability (HRV), a non-invasive measure of autonomic status which predicts poor cardiovascular outcomes, is unknown. Healthy community dwelling volunteers (N = 157, mean age 29 years) participated in the Cumulative Stress/Adversity Interview (CAI), a 140-item event interview measuring cumulative adversity including major life events, life trauma, recent life events and chronic stressors, and underwent 24-h ambulatory ECG monitoring. HRV was analyzed in the frequency domain and standard deviation of NN intervals (SDNN) calculated. Initial simple regression analyses revealed that total cumulative stress score, chronic stressors and cumulative adverse life events (CALE) were all inversely associated with ultra low-frequency (ULF), very low-frequency (VLF) and low-frequency (LF) power and SDNN (all p stress and chronic stress each was significantly associated with SDNN and ULF even after the highly significant contributions of age and sex, with no other covariates accounting for additional appreciable variance. For VLF and LF, both total cumulative stress and chronic stress significantly contributed to the variance alone but were not longer significant after adjusting for race and health behaviors. In summary, total cumulative stress, and its components of adverse life events and chronic stress were associated with decreased cardiac autonomic function as measured by HRV. Findings suggest one potential mechanism by which stress may exert adverse effects on mortality in healthy individuals. Primary preventive strategies including stress management may prove beneficial.

  14. Revisiting Structural Modeling of Credit Risk—Evidence from the Credit Default Swap (CDS Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhijian (James Huang

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available The ground-breaking Black-Scholes-Merton model has brought about a generation of derivative pricing models that have been successfully applied in the financial industry. It has been a long standing puzzle that the structural models of credit risk, as an application of the same modeling paradigm, do not perform well empirically. We argue that the ability to accurately compute and dynamically update hedge ratios to facilitate a capital structure arbitrage is a distinctive strength of the Black-Scholes-Merton’s modeling paradigm which could be utilized in credit risk models as well. Our evidence is economically significant: We improve the implementation of a simple structural model so that it is more suitable for our application and then devise a simple capital structure arbitrage strategy based on the model. We show that the trading strategy persistently produced substantial risk-adjusted profit.

  15. Diabetes Mellitus Induces Alzheimer’s Disease Pathology: Histopathological Evidence from Animal Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nobuyuki Kimura

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Alzheimer’s disease (AD is the major causative disease of dementia and is characterized pathologically by the accumulation of senile plaques (SPs and neurofibrillary tangles (NFTs in the brain. Although genetic studies show that β-amyloid protein (Aβ, the major component of SPs, is the key factor underlying AD pathogenesis, it remains unclear why advanced age often leads to AD. Interestingly, several epidemiological and clinical studies show that type II diabetes mellitus (DM patients are more likely to exhibit increased susceptibility to AD. Moreover, growing evidence suggests that there are several connections between the neuropathology that underlies AD and DM, and there is evidence that the experimental induction of DM can cause cognitive dysfunction, even in rodent animal models. This mini-review summarizes histopathological evidence that DM induces AD pathology in animal models and discusses the possibility that aberrant insulin signaling is a key factor in the induction of AD pathology.

  16. Cumulative asbestos exposure for US automobile mechanics involved in brake repair (circa 1950s-2000).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finley, Brent L; Richter, Richard O; Mowat, Fionna S; Mlynarek, Steve; Paustenbach, Dennis J; Warmerdam, John M; Sheehan, Patrick J

    2007-11-01

    We analyzed cumulative lifetime exposure to chrysotile asbestos experienced by brake mechanics in the US during the period 1950-2000. Using Monte Carlo methods, cumulative exposures were calculated using the distribution of 8-h time-weighted average exposure concentrations for brake mechanics and the distribution of job tenure data for automobile mechanics. The median estimated cumulative exposures for these mechanics, as predicted by three probabilistic models, ranged from 0.16 to 0.41 fibers per cubic centimeter (f/cm(3)) year for facilities with no dust-control procedures (1970s), and from 0.010 to 0.012 f/cm(3) year for those employing engineering controls (1980s). Upper-bound (95%) estimates for the 1970s and 1980s were 1.96 to 2.79 and 0.07-0.10 f/cm(3) year, respectively. These estimates for US brake mechanics are consistent with, but generally slightly lower than, those reported for European mechanics. The values are all substantially lower than the cumulative exposure of 4.5 f/cm(3) year associated with occupational exposure to 0.1 f/cm(3) of asbestos for 45 years that is currently permitted under the current occupational exposure limits in the US. Cumulative exposures were usually about 100- to 1,000-fold less than those of other occupational groups with asbestos exposure for similar time periods. The cumulative lifetime exposure estimates presented here, combined with the negative epidemiology data for brake mechanics, could be used to refine the risk assessments for chrysotile-exposed populations.

  17. Evidence accumulation in decision making: unifying the "take the best" and the "rational" models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Michael D; Cummins, Tarrant D R

    2004-04-01

    An evidence accumulation model of forced-choice decision making is proposed to unify the fast and frugal take the best (TTB) model and the alternative rational (RAT) model with which it is usually contrasted. The basic idea is to treat the TTB model as a sequential-sampling process that terminates as soon as any evidence in favor of a decision is found and the rational approach as a sequential-sampling process that terminates only when all available information has been assessed. The unified TTB and RAT models were tested in an experiment in which participants learned to make correct judgments for a set of real-world stimuli on the basis of feedback, and were then asked to make additional judgments without feedback for cases in which the TTB and the rational models made different predictions. The results show that, in both experiments, there was strong intraparticipant consistency in the use of either the TTB or the rational model but large interparticipant differences in which model was used. The unified model is shown to be able to capture the differences in decision making across participants in an interpretable way and is preferred by the minimum description length model selection criterion.

  18. Experimental evidence for a dual pathway model analysis of coping with the climate crisis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Zomeren, Martijn; Spears, Russell; Leach, Colinn Wayne

    2010-01-01

    Two experiments examined the psychological power of fear and group efficacy beliefs to increase environmental action intentions against the climate crisis Extending a dual pathway model of coping with collective disadvantage results showed evidence for emotion-focused approach coping Environmental a

  19. Entanglement entropy and particle number cumulants of disordered fermions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burmistrov, I. S.; Tikhonov, K. S.; Gornyi, I. V.; Mirlin, A. D.

    2017-08-01

    We study the entanglement entropy and particle number cumulants for a system of disordered noninteracting fermions in d dimensions. We show, both analytically and numerically, that for a weak disorder the entanglement entropy and the second cumulant (particle number variance) are proportional to each other with a universal coefficient. The corresponding expressions are analogous to those in the clean case but with a logarithmic factor regularized by the mean free path rather than by the system size. We also determine the scaling of higher cumulants by analytical (weak disorder) and numerical means. Finally, we predict that the particle number variance and the entanglement entropy are nonanalytic functions of disorder at the Anderson transition.

  20. Relative Pesticide and Exposure Route Contribution to Aggregate and Cumulative Dose in Young Farmworker Children

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Asa Bradman

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The Child-Specific Aggregate Cumulative Human Exposure and Dose (CACHED framework integrates micro-level activity time series with mechanistic exposure equations, environmental concentration distributions, and physiologically-based pharmacokinetic components to estimate exposure for multiple routes and chemicals. CACHED was utilized to quantify cumulative and aggregate exposure and dose estimates for a population of young farmworker children and to evaluate the model for chlorpyrifos and diazinon. Micro-activities of farmworker children collected concurrently with residential measurements of pesticides were used in the CACHED framework to simulate 115,000 exposure scenarios and quantify cumulative and aggregate exposure and dose estimates. Modeled metabolite urine concentrations were not statistically different than concentrations measured in the urine of children, indicating that CACHED can provide realistic biomarker estimates. Analysis of the relative contribution of exposure route and pesticide indicates that in general, chlorpyrifos non-dietary ingestion exposure accounts for the largest dose, confirming the importance of the micro-activity approach. The risk metrics computed from the 115,000 simulations, indicate that greater than 95% of these scenarios might pose a risk to children’s health from aggregate chlorpyrifos exposure. The variability observed in the route and pesticide contributions to urine biomarker levels demonstrate the importance of accounting for aggregate and cumulative exposure in establishing pesticide residue tolerances in food.

  1. Simulation of the cumulative hydrological response to green infrastructure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Avellaneda, P. M.; Jefferson, A. J.; Grieser, J. M.; Bush, S. A.

    2017-04-01

    In this study, we evaluated the cumulative hydrologic performance of green infrastructure in a residential area of the city of Parma, Ohio, draining to a tributary of the Cuyahoga River. Green infrastructure included the following spatially distributed devices: 16 street-side bioretention cells, 7 rain gardens, and 37 rain barrels. Data consisted of rainfall and outfall flow records for a wide range of storm events, including pretreatment and treatment periods. The Stormwater Management Model was calibrated and validated to predict the hydrologic response of green infrastructure. The calibrated model was used to quantify annual water budget alterations and discharge frequency over a 6 year simulation period. For the study catchment, we observed a treatment effect with increases of 1.4% in evaporation, 7.6% in infiltration, and a 9.0% reduction in surface runoff. The hydrologic performance of green infrastructure was evaluated by comparing the flow duration curve for pretreatment and treatment outfall flow scenarios. The flow duration curve shifted downward for the green infrastructure scenario. Discharges with a 0.5, 1, 2, and 5 year return period were reduced by an average of 29%. Parameter and predictive uncertainties were inspected by implementing a Bayesian statistical approach.

  2. A shock process with a non-cumulative damage

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Finkelstein, M.S.; Zarudnij, V.I

    2001-01-01

    Two types of non-cumulative damage shock models are considered. Based on the distribution of damage, caused by a shock effecting a system, the intervals with small, intermediate and large damage are introduced. The initial homogeneous Poisson shock process is split into three homogeneous Poisson processes and studied independently. Several criteria of failure are considered, based on the assumption that shocks with a small level of damage are harmless for a system, shocks with a large level of damage results in the system's failure and shocks with an intermediate level of damage can result in the system's failure only with some probability. The second model is based on an assumption that shocks with a small level of damage are harmless to a system, if they are not too close to each other. The probability of the system's failure-free performance in [0,t) is derived explicitly. Simple asymptotic exponential approximations are obtained The accuracy of this method is analyzed. Possible generalizations are discussed.

  3. Cumulative creep fatigue damage in 316 stainless steel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mcgaw, Michael A.

    1989-01-01

    The cumulative creep-fatigue damage behavior of 316 stainless steel at 1500 F was experimentally established for the two-level loading cases of fatigue followed by fatigue, creep fatigue followed by fatigue, and fatigue followed by creep fatigue. The two-level loadings were conducted such that the lower life (high strain) cycling was applied first for a controlled number of cycles and the higher life (low strain) cycling was conducted as the second level to failure. The target life levels in this study were 100 cycles to failure for both the fatigue and creep-fatigue lowlife loading, 5000 cycles to failure for the higher life fatigue loading and 10,000 cycles to failure for the higher life creep-fatigue loading. The failed specimens are being examined both fractographically and metallographically to ascertain the nature of the damaging mechanisms that produced failure. Models of creep-fatigue damage accumulation are being evaluated and knowledge of the various damaging mechanisms is necessary to ensure that predictive capability is instilled in the final failure model.

  4. Evidence for model-based computations in the human amygdala during Pavlovian conditioning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prévost, Charlotte; McNamee, Daniel; Jessup, Ryan K; Bossaerts, Peter; O'Doherty, John P

    2013-01-01

    Contemporary computational accounts of instrumental conditioning have emphasized a role for a model-based system in which values are computed with reference to a rich model of the structure of the world, and a model-free system in which values are updated without encoding such structure. Much less studied is the possibility of a similar distinction operating at the level of Pavlovian conditioning. In the present study, we scanned human participants while they participated in a Pavlovian conditioning task with a simple structure while measuring activity in the human amygdala using a high-resolution fMRI protocol. After fitting a model-based algorithm and a variety of model-free algorithms to the fMRI data, we found evidence for the superiority of a model-based algorithm in accounting for activity in the amygdala compared to the model-free counterparts. These findings support an important role for model-based algorithms in describing the processes underpinning Pavlovian conditioning, as well as providing evidence of a role for the human amygdala in model-based inference.

  5. Evidence for model-based computations in the human amygdala during Pavlovian conditioning.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charlotte Prévost

    Full Text Available Contemporary computational accounts of instrumental conditioning have emphasized a role for a model-based system in which values are computed with reference to a rich model of the structure of the world, and a model-free system in which values are updated without encoding such structure. Much less studied is the possibility of a similar distinction operating at the level of Pavlovian conditioning. In the present study, we scanned human participants while they participated in a Pavlovian conditioning task with a simple structure while measuring activity in the human amygdala using a high-resolution fMRI protocol. After fitting a model-based algorithm and a variety of model-free algorithms to the fMRI data, we found evidence for the superiority of a model-based algorithm in accounting for activity in the amygdala compared to the model-free counterparts. These findings support an important role for model-based algorithms in describing the processes underpinning Pavlovian conditioning, as well as providing evidence of a role for the human amygdala in model-based inference.

  6. The education of medical librarians in evidence-based information services: a model of active learning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huriye Çolaklar

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Evidence-based practice stems from clinical approaches which are used in the late 18th and early 19th centuries’ medical practices. This area is new in Turkey, too. Turkey needs some lessons about evidence-based practice in Departments of Information and Records Management. This paper, examining the examples in various other countries, presents a model for including the evidence-based information services, which are based on research done in the fields of health and medicine and especially of dentistry, within the contents of the already existing courses in education of librarianship in Turkey. The paper depicts the aims and fields of use of evidence-based information services and their contribution to active learning; examines the education of this subject in various other countries and shows its place in Turkey, and presents a model for the improvement of this education. It is proved that the education of the librarians who will give evidence-based information services both with special practices within the already existing courses or with optional courses given especially for this aim in education of librarianship will contribute considerably to active learning in dentistry.

  7. Studying cumulative ozone exposures in Europe during a 7-year period

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bastrup-Birk, Annemarie; Brandt, JøRgen; Zlatev, Zahari; Uria, Ignacio

    1997-10-01

    Ozone is one of the most harmful pollutants in the troposphere. High ozone concentrations can damage plants, animals and humans. The damaging effects depend on the magnitude of a critical level of a special parameter, the cumulative ozone exposure. This is why cumulative ozone exposures must be carefully studied. It is important to determine the relationships between relevant emissions (NOx emissions, human-made VOC emissions, and/or a combination of NOx emissions and human-made VOC emissions) and cumulative ozone exposures. All these issues are discussed in this paper. Meteorological data from seven consecutive years, from 1989 to 1995, have been used in the experiments with different scenarios for varying the emissions (the NOx emissions, the human-made VOC emissions, as well as both the NOx emissions and the human-made VOC emissions). The particular air pollution model used in this study is the Danish Eulerian Model. Several hundred runs with different input data (meteorological data and/or emission data) have been performed. Advanced visualization techniques are used to interpret the large amount of digital data collected in these runs and to show clearly different trends and relationships that are normally hidden behind millions and millions of numbers. The model results were compared with measurements taken at more than 80 stations located in different European countries. The experiments indicate that it is sufficient to carry out computations over 5 consecutive years in order to eliminate the influence of extreme meteorological conditions (very warm or very cold summer months) on the cumulative ozone exposures, while this effect is clearly seen if less than 5 years are used in the experiments. It is shown that the relationship between the emissions (NOx and/or human-made VOC emissions) and the cumulative ozone exposures is in general nonlinear. Finally, it is illustrated that the critical values for ozone exposures are exceeded in most of Europe (in many

  8. Indirect Effects and Potential Cumulative Impacts of Dredging in an Urbanized Estuary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sommerfield, C. K.; Chen, J.; Ralston, D. K.; Geyer, W. R.

    2016-02-01

    For over two centuries, the Delaware River and Bay estuary has supported one of the most economically important ports in the United States. To accommodate ships of ever-increasing size, the 165-km axial shipping channel has been deepened to over twice the natural depth of the estuary. While it is known that the channel has modified tides and sedimentation patterns in the estuary, unknown are the impacts on the ecosystem as a whole. A concern is the influence of channelization on sediment movement to the tidal wetland coast, which is eroding at rates on the order of meters per year. Tidal wetlands frame the entire estuary and provide vital ecosystem services ranging from recreation to carbon sequestration. To identify shifts in baseline conditions, we are performing a retrospective analysis of estuarine dynamics using historical bathymetry, numerical modeling, and observational studies. The period of interest extends from 1848 (50 years prior to channel construction) to present. During this period the channel was progressively deepened from its natural depth of 5.5 m to the current depth of 14 m. Preliminary modeling results support independent evidence that the salt intrusion and zone of rapid sediment deposition migrated several 10s of kilometers up-estuary as an indirect effect of deepening. Ironically, the locus of intense deposition now falls squarely within the Wilmington-Philadelphia port complex; river sediment that initially settles in this area is removed by maintenance dredging before it can disperse seaward. Sediment budgetary analysis indicates that the mass of sediment dredged from the upper estuary on average exceeds the mass of the new sediment supplied from the drainage basin. Hence, a probable cumulative impact of dredging is a reduction in sediment delivery to the lower estuary and fringing wetlands. Connections among the shipping channel, wave-tide interactions, and marsh edge erosion are a topic of ongoing modeling and observational research.

  9. Online Scheduling in Manufacturing A Cumulative Delay Approach

    CERN Document Server

    Suwa, Haruhiko

    2013-01-01

    Online scheduling is recognized as the crucial decision-making process of production control at a phase of “being in production" according to the released shop floor schedule. Online scheduling can be also considered as one of key enablers to realize prompt capable-to-promise as well as available-to-promise to customers along with reducing production lead times under recent globalized competitive markets. Online Scheduling in Manufacturing introduces new approaches to online scheduling based on a concept of cumulative delay. The cumulative delay is regarded as consolidated information of uncertainties under a dynamic environment in manufacturing and can be collected constantly without much effort at any points in time during a schedule execution. In this approach, the cumulative delay of the schedule has the important role of a criterion for making a decision whether or not a schedule revision is carried out. The cumulative delay approach to trigger schedule revisions has the following capabilities for the ...

  10. Cumulative Risks of Foster Care Placement for Danish Children

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fallesen, Peter; Emanuel, Natalia; Wildeman, Christopher

    2014-01-01

    Although recent research suggests that the cumulative risk of foster care placement is far higher for American children than originally suspected, little is known about the cumulative risk of foster care placement in other countries, which makes it difficult to gauge the degree to which factor...... is for Danish children. Results suggest that at the beginning of the study period (in 1998) the cumulative risk of foster care placement for Danish children was roughly in line with the risk for American children. Yet, by the end of the study period (2010), the risk had declined to half the risk for American...... foster care placement is salient in other contexts. In this article, we provide companion estimates to those provided in recent work on the US by using Danish registry data and synthetic cohort life tables to show how high and unequally distributed the cumulative risk of foster care placement...

  11. Mapping cumulative human impacts in the eastern North Sea

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stock, A.; Andersen, Jesper; Heinänen, S.

    of the MSFD; and 3) to deepen the understanding of how errors in expert judgment affect the resulting cumulative human impact maps by means of Monte Carlo simulations. We combined existing data sets on the spatial distribution of 33 anthropogenic stressors (linked to the MSFD pressures) and 28 key habitats....... In contrast, the predicted impacts for much of the Norwegian EEZ and areas far offshore were lower. The Monte Carlo simulations confirmed earlier findings that mapping cumulative impacts is generally "robust", but also showed that specific combinations of errors can seriously change local and regional...... on marine ecosystems have only recently been developed. The aims of our study were: 1) to develop a map of cumulative human impacts for the Danish, Swedish, Norwegian and German parts of the Greater North Sea; 2) to adjust the existing methods for mapping cumulative human impacts to fit the requirements...

  12. Cumulative Production Per Township - SaMiRa

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — This dataset contains a selected township grid within the Sagebrush Mineral Resource Assessment project (SaMiRa) study area attributed with cumulative oil and gas...

  13. Cumulative radiation exposure in children with cystic fibrosis.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    O'Reilly, R

    2010-02-01

    This retrospective study calculated the cumulative radiation dose for children with cystic fibrosis (CF) attending a tertiary CF centre. Information on 77 children with a mean age of 9.5 years, a follow up time of 658 person years and 1757 studies including 1485 chest radiographs, 215 abdominal radiographs and 57 computed tomography (CT) scans, of which 51 were thoracic CT scans, were analysed. The average cumulative radiation dose was 6.2 (0.04-25) mSv per CF patient. Cumulative radiation dose increased with increasing age and number of CT scans and was greater in children who presented with meconium ileus. No correlation was identified between cumulative radiation dose and either lung function or patient microbiology cultures. Radiation carries a risk of malignancy and children are particularly susceptible. Every effort must be made to avoid unnecessary radiation exposure in these patients whose life expectancy is increasing.

  14. Macroscopic cumulative fatigue damage of material under nonsymmetrical cycle

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    盖秉政

    2002-01-01

    Hashin's macroscopic theory of fatigue damage is further discussed and a new method has been proposed for prediction of cumulative fatigue damage of material and its lifetime under nonsymmetrical cyclic loading.

  15. Translation-Invariant Representation for Cumulative Foot Pressure Images

    CERN Document Server

    Zheng, Shuai; Tan, Tieniu

    2010-01-01

    Human can be distinguished by different limb movements and unique ground reaction force. Cumulative foot pressure image is a 2-D cumulative ground reaction force during one gait cycle. Although it contains pressure spatial distribution information and pressure temporal distribution information, it suffers from several problems including different shoes and noise, when putting it into practice as a new biometric for pedestrian identification. In this paper, we propose a hierarchical translation-invariant representation for cumulative foot pressure images, inspired by the success of Convolutional deep belief network for digital classification. Key contribution in our approach is discriminative hierarchical sparse coding scheme which helps to learn useful discriminative high-level visual features. Based on the feature representation of cumulative foot pressure images, we develop a pedestrian recognition system which is invariant to three different shoes and slight local shape change. Experiments are conducted on...

  16. Relevance of the glutathione system in temporal lobe epilepsy: evidence in human and experimental models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cárdenas-Rodríguez, Noemí; Coballase-Urrutia, Elvia; Pérez-Cruz, Claudia; Montesinos-Correa, Hortencia; Rivera-Espinosa, Liliana; Sampieri, Aristides; Carmona-Aparicio, Liliana

    2014-01-01

    Oxidative stress, which is a state of imbalance in the production of reactive oxygen species and nitrogen, is induced by a wide variety of factors. This biochemical state is associated with diseases that are systemic as well as diseases that affect the central nervous system. Epilepsy is a chronic neurological disorder, and temporal lobe epilepsy represents an estimated 40% of all epilepsy cases. Currently, evidence from human and experimental models supports the involvement of oxidative stress during seizures and in the epileptogenesis process. Hence, the aim of this review was to provide information that facilitates the processing of this evidence and investigate the therapeutic impact of the biochemical status for this specific pathology.

  17. How to Find Exculpatory and Inculpatory Evidence Using a Circular Digital Forensics Process Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khatir, Marjan; Hejazi, Seyed Mahmood

    With raising the number of cyber crimes, the need of having a proper digital forensic process also increases. Although digital forensics is practiced in recent years, there is still a big gap between previously suggested digital forensics processes and what is really needed to be done in real cases. Some problems with current processes are lack of flexible transition between phases, not having a clear method or a complete scenario for addressing reliable evidence, and not paying enough attention to management aspects and team roles. This paper provides a process model by paying special attention to the team roles and management aspects as well as both exculpatory and inculpatory evidence.

  18. Moving from evidence to practice: Models of care for the prevention and management of musculoskeletal conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Speerin, Robyn; Slater, Helen; Li, Linda; Moore, Karina; Chan, Madelynn; Dreinhöfer, Karsten; Ebeling, Peter R; Willcock, Simon; Briggs, Andrew M

    2014-06-01

    With musculoskeletal conditions now identified as the second highest cause of the morbidity-related global burden of disease, models of care for the prevention and management of disability related to musculoskeletal conditions are an imperative. Musculoskeletal models of care aim to describe how to operationalise evidence-based guidelines for musculoskeletal conditions and thus support implementation by clinical teams and their health systems. This review of models of care for musculoskeletal pain conditions, osteoarthritis, rheumatoid arthritis, osteoporosis and musculoskeletal injuries and trauma outlines health system and local implementation strategies to improve consumer outcomes, including supporting access to multidisciplinary teams, improving access for vulnerable populations and levering digital technologies to support access and self-management. However, the challenge remains of how to inform health system decision-makers and policy about the human and fiscal benefits for broad implementation across health services. Recommendations are made for potential solutions, as well as highlighting where further evidence is required.

  19. Stochastic Dynamic User Optimum Model with Departure Time Choice Based on Cumulative Prospect Theory%基于累积前景理论的出发时间选择SDUO模型

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张波; 隽志才; 林徐勋

    2013-01-01

    The existing dynamic traffic assignment models that deal with departure time choice generally construct utility or disutility functions based on the concepts of time-window and schedule delay. Travelers are assumed to be entirely rational and have full access to the information of dynamic traffic system. The reference points and the difference between arrival times within time-window are not considered in our assumption. There are often systematical deviations between traffic assignment results and real traffic (low. Traffic system is an uncertain dynamic system characterized as time-varying and stochastic. Constrained by the compound effect of imperfect traffic information, limited cognitive capability, value orientations and the degree of rationality, travelers are rarely able to perform their travel decisions with entire rationality. Researches of psychology and behavior science demonstrate that decisions under uncertainty appear to be bounded rational. As a descriptive theory, the Prospect Theory reveals psychological and behavioral mechanisms of people with bounded rationality, and demonstrates the patterns and human decision-making characteristics under risk. A few empirical studies experimenting on travelers have shown that travel behaviors under uncertainty, especially in the choices of departure time and route, and their attitude towards risk coincide with the main assumptions of Prospect Theory. Focused oncommuting trips during peak hours in the morning, this paper explores the usefulness of Prospect Theory in the dynamic traffic assignment. First, commuters are classified into early arrivals and late arrivals according to when they arrive at their workplace. The reference points for departure time and route choices are defined in a dynamic stochastic traffic network. The continuous functions of Prospect Theory for departure time and route choices in the condition of continuous traffic flow are constructed. A Stochastic Dynamic User Optimum (SDUO) model

  20. Integration of an Evidence Base into a Probabilistic Risk Assessment Model. The Integrated Medical Model Database: An Organized Evidence Base for Assessing In-Flight Crew Health Risk and System Design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saile, Lynn; Lopez, Vilma; Bickham, Grandin; FreiredeCarvalho, Mary; Kerstman, Eric; Byrne, Vicky; Butler, Douglas; Myers, Jerry; Walton, Marlei

    2011-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews the Integrated Medical Model (IMM) database, which is an organized evidence base for assessing in-flight crew health risk. The database is a relational database accessible to many people. The database quantifies the model inputs by a ranking based on the highest value of the data as Level of Evidence (LOE) and the quality of evidence (QOE) score that provides an assessment of the evidence base for each medical condition. The IMM evidence base has already been able to provide invaluable information for designers, and for other uses.

  1. Childhood Cumulative Risk Exposure and Adult Amygdala Volume and Function.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Gary W; Swain, James E; King, Anthony P; Wang, Xin; Javanbakht, Arash; Ho, S Shaun; Angstadt, Michael; Phan, K Luan; Xie, Hong; Liberzon, Israel

    2016-06-01

    Considerable work indicates that early cumulative risk exposure is aversive to human development, but very little research has examined the neurological underpinnings of these robust findings. This study investigates amygdala volume and reactivity to facial stimuli among adults (mean 23.7 years of age, n = 54) as a function of cumulative risk exposure during childhood (9 and 13 years of age). In addition, we test to determine whether expected cumulative risk elevations in amygdala volume would mediate functional reactivity of the amygdala during socioemotional processing. Risks included substandard housing quality, noise, crowding, family turmoil, child separation from family, and violence. Total and left hemisphere adult amygdala volumes were positively related to cumulative risk exposure during childhood. The links between childhood cumulative risk exposure and elevated amygdala responses to emotionally neutral facial stimuli in adulthood were mediated by the corresponding amygdala volumes. Cumulative risk exposure in later adolescence (17 years of age), however, was unrelated to subsequent adult amygdala volume or function. Physical and socioemotional risk exposures early in life appear to alter amygdala development, rendering adults more reactive to ambiguous stimuli such as neutral faces. These stress-related differences in childhood amygdala development might contribute to the well-documented psychological distress as a function of early risk exposure.

  2. Evidence on Features of a DSGE Business Cycle Model from Bayesian Model Averaging

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R.W. Strachan (Rodney); H.K. van Dijk (Herman)

    2012-01-01

    textabstractThe empirical support for features of a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model with two technology shocks is valuated using Bayesian model averaging over vector autoregressions. The model features include equilibria, restrictions on long-run responses, a structural break of unknown

  3. Calibration of complex models through Bayesian evidence synthesis: a demonstration and tutorial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson, Christopher H; Jit, Mark; Sharples, Linda D; De Angelis, Daniela

    2015-02-01

    Decision-analytic models must often be informed using data that are only indirectly related to the main model parameters. The authors outline how to implement a Bayesian synthesis of diverse sources of evidence to calibrate the parameters of a complex model. A graphical model is built to represent how observed data are generated from statistical models with unknown parameters and how those parameters are related to quantities of interest for decision making. This forms the basis of an algorithm to estimate a posterior probability distribution, which represents the updated state of evidence for all unknowns given all data and prior beliefs. This process calibrates the quantities of interest against data and, at the same time, propagates all parameter uncertainties to the results used for decision making. To illustrate these methods, the authors demonstrate how a previously developed Markov model for the progression of human papillomavirus (HPV-16) infection was rebuilt in a Bayesian framework. Transition probabilities between states of disease severity are inferred indirectly from cross-sectional observations of prevalence of HPV-16 and HPV-16-related disease by age, cervical cancer incidence, and other published information. Previously, a discrete collection of plausible scenarios was identified but with no further indication of which of these are more plausible. Instead, the authors derive a Bayesian posterior distribution, in which scenarios are implicitly weighted according to how well they are supported by the data. In particular, we emphasize the appropriate choice of prior distributions and checking and comparison of fitted models.

  4. From cultural traditions to cumulative culture: parameterizing the differences between human and nonhuman culture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kempe, Marius; Lycett, Stephen J; Mesoudi, Alex

    2014-10-21

    Diverse species exhibit cultural traditions, i.e. population-specific profiles of socially learned traits, from songbird dialects to primate tool-use behaviours. However, only humans appear to possess cumulative culture, in which cultural traits increase in complexity over successive generations. Theoretically, it is currently unclear what factors give rise to these phenomena, and consequently why cultural traditions are found in several species but cumulative culture in only one. Here, we address this by constructing and analysing cultural evolutionary models of both phenomena that replicate empirically attestable levels of cultural variation and complexity in chimpanzees and humans. In our model of cultural traditions (Model 1), we find that realistic cultural variation between populations can be maintained even when individuals in different populations invent the same traits and migration between populations is frequent, and under a range of levels of social learning accuracy. This lends support to claims that putative cultural traditions are indeed cultural (rather than genetic) in origin, and suggests that cultural traditions should be widespread in species capable of social learning. Our model of cumulative culture (Model 2) indicates that both the accuracy of social learning and the number of cultural demonstrators interact to determine the complexity of a trait that can be maintained in a population. Combining these models (Model 3) creates two qualitatively distinct regimes in which there are either a few, simple traits, or many, complex traits. We suggest that these regimes correspond to nonhuman and human cultures, respectively. The rarity of cumulative culture in nature may result from this interaction between social learning accuracy and number of demonstrators.

  5. Sentence-based attention mechanisms in word learning: Evidence from a computational model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Afra eAlishahi

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available When looking for the referents of nouns, adults and young children are sensitive to cross- situational statistics (Yu & Smith, 2007; Smith & Yu, 2008. In addition, the linguistic context that a word appears in has been shown to act as a powerful attention mechanism for guiding sentence processing and word learning (Landau & Gleitman, 1985; Altmann & Kamide, 1999; Kako & Trueswell, 2000. Koehne & Crocker (2010, 2011 investigate the interaction between cross-situational evidence and guidance from the sentential context in an adult language learning scenario. Their studies reveal that these learning mechanisms interact in a complex manner: they can be used in a complementary way when context helps reduce referential uncertainty; they influence word learning about equally strongly when cross-situational and contextual evidence are in conflict; and contextual cues block aspects of cross-situational learning when both mechanisms are independently applicable. To address this complex pattern of findings, we present a probabilistic computational model of word learning which extends a previous cross-situational model (Fazly et al., 2010 with an attention mechanism based on sentential cues. Our model uses a framework that seamlessly combines the two sources of evidence in order to study their emerging pattern of interaction during the process of word learning. Simulations of the experiments of Koehne & Crocker (2010, 2011 reveal an overall patterns of results that are in line with their findings. Importantly, we demonstrate that our model does not need to explicitly assign priority to either source of evidence in order to produce these results: learning patterns emerge as a result of a probabilistic interaction between the two types of cues. Moreover, using a computational model allows us to examine the developmental trajectory of the differential roles of cross-situational and sentential cues in word learning.

  6. Cumulative production of pions by heavy baryonic resonances in proton-nucleus collisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Motornenko, A.; Gorenstein, M. I.

    2017-02-01

    Pion production in proton-nucleus (p+A) collisions outside the kinematical boundary of proton-nucleon (p+N) reactions and the so-called cumulative effect are studied. Restrictions from energy-momentum conservation of the energy of pions emitted in the backward direction in the target rest frame are analyzed. It is assumed that the cumulative pions are produced in p+A reactions by heavy baryonic resonances. The baryonic resonances are first created in p+N reactions. Due to successive collisions with nuclear nucleons, the masses of these resonances may then increase and, simultaneously, their longitudinal velocities decrease. We also use the ultra relativistic quantum molecular dynamics model to reveal the key role of successive collisions of baryonic resonances with nuclear nucleons for cumulative pion production in p+A reactions. Further experimental studies of cumulative hadron production in p+A reactions at high collision energies are needed to search for heavy hadron-like objects and investigate their properties.

  7. A probabilistic analysis of cumulative carbon emissions and long-term planetary warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fyke, Jeremy; Damon Matthews, H.

    2015-11-01

    Efforts to mitigate and adapt to long-term climate change could benefit greatly from probabilistic estimates of cumulative carbon emissions due to fossil fuel burning and resulting CO2-induced planetary warming. Here we demonstrate the use of a reduced-form model to project these variables. We performed simulations using a large-ensemble framework with parametric uncertainty sampled to produce distributions of future cumulative emissions and consequent planetary warming. A hind-cast ensemble of simulations captured 1980-2012 historical CO2 emissions trends and an ensemble of future projection simulations generated a distribution of emission scenarios that qualitatively resembled the suite of Representative and Extended Concentration Pathways. The resulting cumulative carbon emission and temperature change distributions are characterized by 5-95th percentile ranges of 0.96-4.9 teratonnes C (Tt C) and 1.4 °C-8.5 °C, respectively, with 50th percentiles at 3.1 Tt C and 4.7 °C. Within the wide range of policy-related parameter combinations that produced these distributions, we found that low-emission simulations were characterized by both high carbon prices and low costs of non-fossil fuel energy sources, suggesting the importance of these two policy levers in particular for avoiding dangerous levels of climate warming. With this analysis we demonstrate a probabilistic approach to the challenge of identifying strategies for limiting cumulative carbon emissions and assessing likelihoods of surpassing dangerous temperature thresholds.

  8. Cumulative violence exposure, emotional nonacceptance, and mental health symptoms in a community sample of women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sundermann, Jane M; Chu, Ann T; DePrince, Anne P

    2013-01-01

    Women exposed to more types of violence (e.g., emotional, physical, or sexual violence)--referred to here as cumulative violence exposure--are at risk for more severe mental health symptoms compared to women who are exposed to a single type of violence or no violence. Women exposed to violence may also experience greater emotional nonacceptance compared to women with no exposure to violence. Emotional nonacceptance refers to an unwillingness to experience emotional states, including cognitive and behavioral attempts to avoid experiences of emotion. Given the links between cumulative violence exposure, emotional nonacceptance, and mental health symptoms among female victims of violence, the current study tested victims' emotional nonacceptance as a partial mediator between cumulative violence exposure and the severity of 3 types of symptoms central to complex trauma responses: depression, dissociation, and posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms. A non-treatment-seeking community sample of women (N = 89; M age = 30.70 years) completed self-report questionnaires and interviews. Bootstrap procedures were then used to test 3 mediation models for the separate predictions of depression, dissociation, and PTSD symptoms. Results supported our hypotheses that emotional nonacceptance would mediate the relationship between women's cumulative violence exposure and severity for all symptom types. The current findings highlight the role that emotional nonacceptance may play in the development of mental health symptoms for chronically victimized women and point to the need for longitudinal research in such populations.

  9. Regional estimates of the transient climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leduc, Martin; Matthews, H. Damon; de Elía, Ramón

    2016-05-01

    The Transient Climate Response to cumulative carbon Emissions (TCRE) measures the response of global temperatures to cumulative CO2 emissions. Although the TCRE is a global quantity, climate impacts manifest predominantly in response to local climate changes. Here we quantify the link between CO2 emissions and regional temperature change, showing that regional temperatures also respond approximately linearly to cumulative CO2 emissions. Using an ensemble of twelve Earth system models, we present a novel application of pattern scaling to define the regional pattern of temperature change per emission of CO2. Ensemble mean regional TCRE values range from less than 1 °C per TtC for some ocean regions, to more than 5 °C per TtC in the Arctic, with a pattern of higher values over land and at high northern latitudes. We find also that high-latitude ocean regions deviate more strongly from linearity as compared to land and lower-latitude oceans. This suggests that ice-albedo and ocean circulation feedbacks are important contributors to the overall negative deviation from linearity of the global temperature response to high levels of cumulative emissions. The strong linearity of the regional climate response over most land regions provides a robust way to quantitatively link anthropogenic CO2 emissions to local-scale climate impacts.

  10. Cumulative effects of early poverty on cortisol in young children: moderation by autonomic nervous system activity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blair, Clancy; Berry, Daniel; Mills-Koonce, Roger; Granger, Douglas

    2013-11-01

    The relation of the cumulative experience of poverty in infancy and early childhood to child cortisol at age 48 months was examined in a prospective longitudinal sample of children and families (N=1292) in predominantly low-income and rural communities in two distinct regions of the United States. Families were seen in the home for data collection and cumulative experience of poverty was indexed by parent reported income-to-need ratio and household chaos measures collected between child ages 2 months and 48 months. For the analysis presented here, three saliva samples were also collected over an approximate 90 min interval at child age 48 months and were assayed for cortisol. ECG data were also collected during a resting period and during the administration of a mildly challenging battery of cognitive tasks. Mixed model analysis indicated that child cortisol at 48 months decreased significantly over the sampling time period and that cumulative time in poverty (number of years income-to-need less than or equal to 1) and cumulative household chaos were significantly related to a flatter trajectory for cortisol change and to an overall higher level of cortisol, respectively. Findings also indicated that respiratory sinus arrhythmia derived from the ECG data moderated the association between household chaos and child cortisol and that increase in respiratory sinus arrhythmia during the cognitive task was associated with an overall lower level of cortisol at 48 months.

  11. Microcanonical thermostatistics analysis without histograms: cumulative distribution and Bayesian approaches

    CERN Document Server

    Alves, Nelson A; Rizzi, Leandro G

    2015-01-01

    Microcanonical thermostatistics analysis has become an important tool to reveal essential aspects of phase transitions in complex systems. An efficient way to estimate the microcanonical inverse temperature $\\beta(E)$ and the microcanonical entropy $S(E)$ is achieved with the statistical temperature weighted histogram analysis method (ST-WHAM). The strength of this method lies on its flexibility, as it can be used to analyse data produced by algorithms with generalised sampling weights. However, for any sampling weight, ST-WHAM requires the calculation of derivatives of energy histograms $H(E)$, which leads to non-trivial and tedious binning tasks for models with continuous energy spectrum such as those for biomolecular and colloidal systems. Here, we discuss two alternative methods that avoid the need for such energy binning to obtain continuous estimates for $H(E)$ in order to evaluate $\\beta(E)$ by using ST-WHAM: (i) a series expansion to estimate probability densities from the empirical cumulative distrib...

  12. The cumulative energy effect for improved ignition timing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Markhotok, A., E-mail: amarhotk@phys.washington.edu [Physics Department, Old Dominion University, Norfolk, Virginia 23529 (United States)

    2015-04-15

    A technique capable of improving timing in ignition applications is proposed. It is based on the use of shock waves propagating in a specific medium that allows achieving extremely high speeds and energies. The model uses the energy cumulation effect in the presence of the shock wave refraction on an interface with plasma. The problem was solved analytically and the effects were demonstrated for a cylindrically symmetrical geometry. Numerical results show very quick and uneven acceleration of different portions of the shock front. Its strong distortions lead to formation of a sharply focused jet near the axis of symmetry. The ability of the shock to achieve extremely high speeds and energies can be useful in design of efficient combustors for hypersonic systems, and possibly offers an alternative way of construction of a nuclear fusion reactor. Recommendations are given in terms of adjustment parameters and can be applied at any problem scale and for various combinations of the strengths of the effects involved in the problem.

  13. Forensic Evidence Identification and Modeling for Attacks against a Simulated Online Business Information System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manghui Tu

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Forensic readiness can support future forensics investigation or auditing on external/internal attacks, internal sabotage and espionage, and business frauds. To establish forensics readiness, it is essential for an organization to identify what evidences are relevant and where they can be found, to determine whether they are logged in a forensic sound way and whether all the needed evidences are available to reconstruct the events successfully.  Our goal of this research is to ensure evidence availability. First, both external and internal attacks are molded as augmented attack trees/graphs based on the system vulnerabilities. Second, modeled attacks are conducted against a honeynet simulating an online business information system, and each honeypot's hard drive is forensic sound imaged for each individual attack. Third, an evidence tree/graph will be built after forensics examination on the disk images for each attack. The evidence trees/graphs are expected to be used for automatic crime scene reconstruction and automatic attack/fraud detection in the future.

  14. Vocational intervention based on the Model of Human Occupation: a review of evidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Jenica; Kielhofner, Gary

    2010-09-01

    Work is a growing concern in disability and rehabilitation fields. Specific evidence related to occupational therapy in the area of vocational rehabilitation is somewhat limited. With increased demands for occupation-focused, evidence-based, and theory-informed practice, this review aims to use clinically relevant questions to organize and synthesize evidence regarding work-related interventions specifically related to an occupation-focused theory, the Model of Human Occupation. A total of 45 published works related to both the MOHO and vocational issues were identified and included in the review. The review demonstrates that there is a range of evidence that supports the use of the MOHO and its tools as a basis for work-based clinical interventions. Evidence supports the conclusion that MOHO-based work assessments have good psychometric properties and are useful in evaluating vocational potential and needs. MOHO-based work programs have been shown to have a positive impact in improving vocational outcomes to a range of clients.

  15. Evidence against a three-phase point in a binary hard-core lattice model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verberkmoes, Alain; Nienhuis, Bernard

    1999-09-01

    Using Monte Carlo simulation, Van Duijneveldt and Lekkerkerker [Phys. Rev. Lett. 71, 4264 (1993)] found gas-liquid-solid behavior in a simple two-dimensional lattice model with two types of hard particles. The same model is studied here by means of numerical transfer-matrix calculations, focusing on the finite-size scaling of the gaps between the largest few eigenvalues. No evidence for a gas-liquid transition is found. We discuss the relation of the model with a solvable restricted solid-on-solid model of which the states obey the same exclusion rules. Finally, a detailed analysis of the relation with the dilute three-state Potts model strongly supports the tricritical point rather than a three-phase point.

  16. Observational and model evidence for positive low-level cloud feedback.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clement, Amy C; Burgman, Robert; Norris, Joel R

    2009-07-24

    Feedbacks involving low-level clouds remain a primary cause of uncertainty in global climate model projections. This issue was addressed by examining changes in low-level clouds over the Northeast Pacific in observations and climate models. Decadal fluctuations were identified in multiple, independent cloud data sets, and changes in cloud cover appeared to be linked to changes in both local temperature structure and large-scale circulation. This observational analysis further indicated that clouds act as a positive feedback in this region on decadal time scales. The observed relationships between cloud cover and regional meteorological conditions provide a more complete way of testing the realism of the cloud simulation in current-generation climate models. The only model that passed this test simulated a reduction in cloud cover over much of the Pacific when greenhouse gases were increased, providing modeling evidence for a positive low-level cloud feedback.

  17. Simulation Evidence for Nonlocal Interface Models: Two Correlation Lengths Describe Complete Wetting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pang, Lijun; Landau, D. P.; Binder, K.

    2011-06-01

    Monte Carlo simulations of (fluctuating) interfaces in Ising models confined between competing walls at temperatures above the wetting transition are presented and various correlation functions probing the interfacial fluctuation are computed. Evidence for the nonlocal interface Hamiltonian approach of A. O. Parry et al. [Phys. Rev. Lett. 93, 086104 (2004)PRLTAO0031-900710.1103/PhysRevLett.93.086104] is given. In particular, we show that two correlation lengths exist with different dependence on the distance D between the walls.

  18. Stock market volatility using GARCH models: Evidence from South Africa and China stock markets

    OpenAIRE

    Cheteni, Priviledge

    2016-01-01

    This study looks into the relationship between stock returns and volatility in South Africa and China stock markets. A Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model is used to estimate volatility of the stock returns, namely, the Johannesburg Stock Exchange FTSE/JSE Albi index and the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index. The sample period is from January 1998 to October 2014. Empirical results show evidence of high volatility in both the JSE market, and the Shang...

  19. Simulation evidence for nonlocal interface models: two correlation lengths describe complete wetting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pang, Lijun; Landau, D P; Binder, K

    2011-06-10

    Monte Carlo simulations of (fluctuating) interfaces in Ising models confined between competing walls at temperatures above the wetting transition are presented and various correlation functions probing the interfacial fluctuation are computed. Evidence for the nonlocal interface Hamiltonian approach of A. O. Parry et al. [Phys. Rev. Lett. 93, 086104 (2004)] is given. In particular, we show that two correlation lengths exist with different dependence on the distance D between the walls.

  20. Utilisation of theoretical models and frameworks in the process of evidence synthesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Godfrey, Christina M; Harrison, Margaret B; Graham, Ian D; Ross-White, Amanda

    2010-01-01

    A systematic review is a comprehensive enquiry or study of secondary data sources. There is a research question, an a priori articulation of methods and a set of procedures to focus the investigation. Despite these rigorous structures to guide the review, synthesising evidence is a challenging, resource intense and time consuming process. Large volumes of information complicate not only the search functions, but also the conceptualisation of the evidence needed to create the concise and integrated results. Use of a theoretical model or framework could serve as an essential element in effectively focusing the review and designing the methods to respond to the knowledge question. This scoping review sought to confirm the value of models or frameworks used by authors working within traditional methodologies for evidence synthesis. Types of participants The focus of this review was on the context of health care.Types of intervention(s)/phenomena of interest All studies that discussed models or frameworks used specifically to address the process of synthesis were included.Types of studies Discussion, scholarship or methodology papers and reviews were included.Types of outcome All theoretical models or frameworks were described, with specific attention to the purpose of the framework for each study, and the contribution of the framework to the process of synthesis. The search strategy aimed to find both published and unpublished studies. A three-step search strategy was utilised. The databases for published material included CINAHL; Medline; EMBASE; PsycINFO; AMED; Cochrane; Biomed Central; Scirus; and Mednar. Databases for unpublished material included Dissertation Abstracts; Sociological Abstracts; Conference proceedings. The review was a focused scoping review to locate and describe the contribution of theoretical models or frameworks to the process of synthesis. The methodological quality of the discussion papers was therefore not assessed. Data was extracted from

  1. On the duration and intensity of cumulative advantage competitions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Bo; Sun, Liyuan; Figueiredo, Daniel R.; Ribeiro, Bruno; Towsley, Don

    2015-11-01

    Network growth can be framed as a competition for edges among nodes in the network. As with various other social and physical systems, skill (fitness) and luck (random chance) act as fundamental forces driving competition dynamics. In the context of networks, cumulative advantage (CA)—the rich-get-richer effect—is seen as a driving principle governing the edge accumulation process. However, competitions coupled with CA exhibit non-trivial behavior and little is formally known about duration and intensity of CA competitions. By isolating two nodes in an ideal CA competition, we provide a mathematical understanding of how CA exacerbates the role of luck in detriment of skill. We show, for instance, that when nodes start with few edges, an early stroke of luck can place the less skilled in the lead for an extremely long period of time, a phenomenon we call ‘struggle of the fittest’. We prove that duration of a simple skill and luck competition model exhibit power-law tails when CA is present, regardless of skill difference, which is in sharp contrast to the exponential tails when fitness is distinct but CA is absent. We also prove that competition intensity is always upper bounded by an exponential tail, irrespective of CA and skills. Thus, CA competitions can be extremely long (infinite mean, depending on fitness ratio) but almost never very intense. The theoretical results are corroborated by extensive numerical simulations. Our findings have important implications to competitions not only among nodes in networks but also in contexts that leverage socio-physical models embodying CA competitions.

  2. Evidence for Symplectic Symmetry in Ab Initio No-Core Shell Model Results for Light Nuclei

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dytrych, Tomas; Sviratcheva, Kristina D.; Bahri, Chairul; Draayer, Jerry P.; /Louisiana State U.; Vary, James P.; /Iowa State U. /LLNL, Livermore /SLAC

    2007-04-24

    Clear evidence for symplectic symmetry in low-lying states of {sup 12}C and {sup 16}O is reported. Eigenstates of {sup 12}C and {sup 16}O, determined within the framework of the no-core shell model using the JISP16 NN realistic interaction, typically project at the 85-90% level onto a few of the most deformed symplectic basis states that span only a small fraction of the full model space. The results are nearly independent of whether the bare or renormalized effective interactions are used in the analysis. The outcome confirms Elliott's SU(3) model which underpins the symplectic scheme, and above all, points to the relevance of a symplectic no-core shell model that can reproduce experimental B(E2) values without effective charges as well as deformed spatial modes associated with clustering phenomena in nuclei.

  3. Cumulative risks of foster care placement for Danish children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fallesen, Peter; Emanuel, Natalia; Wildeman, Christopher

    2014-01-01

    Although recent research suggests that the cumulative risk of foster care placement is far higher for American children than originally suspected, little is known about the cumulative risk of foster care placement in other countries, which makes it difficult to gauge the degree to which factor foster care placement is salient in other contexts. In this article, we provide companion estimates to those provided in recent work on the US by using Danish registry data and synthetic cohort life tables to show how high and unequally distributed the cumulative risk of foster care placement is for Danish children. Results suggest that at the beginning of the study period (in 1998) the cumulative risk of foster care placement for Danish children was roughly in line with the risk for American children. Yet, by the end of the study period (2010), the risk had declined to half the risk for American children. Our results also show some variations by parental ethnicity and sex, but these differences are small. Indeed, they appear quite muted relative to racial/ethnic differences in these risks in the United States. Last, though cumulative risks are similar between Danish and American children (especially at the beginning of the study period), the age-specific risk profiles are markedly different, with higher risks for older Danish children than for older American children.

  4. USING CUMULATIVE NUMBER DENSITIES TO COMPARE GALAXIES ACROSS COSMIC TIME

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Behroozi, Peter S.; Wechsler, Risa H. [Kavli Institute for Particle Astrophysics and Cosmology, SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory, Stanford, CA 94305 (United States); Marchesini, Danilo [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Tufts University, Medford, MA 02155 (United States); Muzzin, Adam [Leiden Observatory, Leiden University, P.O. Box 9513, 2300 RA Leiden (Netherlands); Papovich, Casey [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Texas A and M University, College Station, TX 77843 (United States); Stefanon, Mauro [Physics and Astronomy Department, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO 65211 (United States)

    2013-11-01

    Comparing galaxies across redshifts at fixed cumulative number density is a popular way to estimate the evolution of specific galaxy populations. This method ignores scatter in mass accretion histories and galaxy-galaxy mergers, which can lead to errors when comparing galaxies over large redshift ranges (Δz > 1). We use abundance matching in the ΛCDM paradigm to estimate the median change in cumulative number density with redshift and provide a simple fit (+0.16 dex per unit Δz) for progenitors of z = 0 galaxies. We find that galaxy descendants do not evolve in the same way as galaxy progenitors, largely due to scatter in mass accretion histories. We also provide estimates for the 1σ range of cumulative number densities corresponding to galaxy progenitors and descendants. Finally, we discuss some limits on cumulative number density comparisons, which arise due to difficulties measuring physical quantities (e.g., stellar mass) consistently across redshifts. A public tool to calculate cumulative number density evolution for galaxies, as well as approximate halo masses, is available online.

  5. Maintenance hemodialysis patients have high cumulative radiation exposure.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Kinsella, Sinead M

    2010-10-01

    Hemodialysis is associated with an increased risk of neoplasms which may result, at least in part, from exposure to ionizing radiation associated with frequent radiographic procedures. In order to estimate the average radiation exposure of those on hemodialysis, we conducted a retrospective study of 100 patients in a university-based dialysis unit followed for a median of 3.4 years. The number and type of radiological procedures were obtained from a central radiology database, and the cumulative effective radiation dose was calculated using standardized, procedure-specific radiation levels. The median annual radiation dose was 6.9 millisieverts (mSv) per patient-year. However, 14 patients had an annual cumulative effective radiation dose over 20 mSv, the upper averaged annual limit for occupational exposure. The median total cumulative effective radiation dose per patient over the study period was 21.7 mSv, in which 13 patients had a total cumulative effective radiation dose over 75 mSv, a value reported to be associated with a 7% increased risk of cancer-related mortality. Two-thirds of the total cumulative effective radiation dose was due to CT scanning. The average radiation exposure was significantly associated with the cause of end-stage renal disease, history of ischemic heart disease, transplant waitlist status, number of in-patient hospital days over follow-up, and death during the study period. These results highlight the substantial exposure to ionizing radiation in hemodialysis patients.

  6. Universal off-equilibrium scaling of critical cumulants in the QCD phase diagram

    CERN Document Server

    Mukherjee, Swagato; Yin, Yi

    2016-01-01

    Exploiting the universality between the QCD critical point and the three dimensional Ising model, closed form expressions derived (arXiv:1506.00645 ) for non-equilibrium critical cumulants on the crossover side of the critical point reveal that they can differ both in magnitude and sign from equilibrium expectations. We demonstrate here that key elements of the Kibble-Zurek framework of non-equilibrium phase transitions can be employed to describe the dynamics of these critical cumulants. Our results suggest that observables sensitive to critical dynamics in heavy-ion collisions should be expressible as universal scaling functions, thereby providing powerful model independent guidance in searches for the QCD critical point.

  7. Modeling a historical mountain pine beetle outbreak using Landsat MSS and multiple lines of evidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Assal, Timothy J.; Sibold, Jason; Reich, Robin M.

    2014-01-01

    Mountain pine beetles are significant forest disturbance agents, capable of inducing widespread mortality in coniferous forests in western North America. Various remote sensing approaches have assessed the impacts of beetle outbreaks over the last two decades. However, few studies have addressed the impacts of historical mountain pine beetle outbreaks, including the 1970s event that impacted Glacier National Park. The lack of spatially explicit data on this disturbance represents both a major data gap and a critical research challenge in that wildfire has removed some of the evidence from the landscape. We utilized multiple lines of evidence to model forest canopy mortality as a proxy for outbreak severity. We incorporate historical aerial and landscape photos, aerial detection survey data, a nine-year collection of satellite imagery and abiotic data. This study presents a remote sensing based framework to (1) relate measurements of canopy mortality from fine-scale aerial photography to coarse-scale multispectral imagery and (2) classify the severity of mountain pine beetle affected areas using a temporal sequence of Landsat data and other landscape variables. We sampled canopy mortality in 261 plots from aerial photos and found that insect effects on mortality were evident in changes to the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) over time. We tested multiple spectral indices and found that a combination of NDVI and the green band resulted in the strongest model. We report a two-step process where we utilize a generalized least squares model to account for the large-scale variability in the data and a binary regression tree to describe the small-scale variability. The final model had a root mean square error estimate of 9.8% canopy mortality, a mean absolute error of 7.6% and an R2 of 0.82. The results demonstrate that a model of percent canopy mortality as a continuous variable can be developed to identify a gradient of mountain pine beetle severity on the

  8. Complementarity of Clinician Judgment and Evidence Based Models in Medical Decision Making: Antecedents, Prospects, and Challenges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhou Lulin

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Early accounts of the development of modern medicine suggest that the clinical skills, scientific competence, and doctors’ judgment were the main impetus for treatment decision, diagnosis, prognosis, therapy assessment, and medical progress. Yet, clinician judgment has its own critics and is sometimes harshly described as notoriously fallacious and an irrational and unfathomable black box with little transparency. With the rise of contemporary medical research, the reputation of clinician judgment has undergone significant reformation in the last century as its fallacious aspects are increasingly emphasized relative to the evidence based options. Within the last decade, however, medical forecasting literature has seen tremendous change and new understanding is emerging on best ways of sharing medical information to complement the evidence based medicine practices. This review revisits and highlights the core debate on clinical judgments and its interrelations with evidence based medicine. It outlines the key empirical results of clinician judgments relative to evidence based models and identifies its key strengths and prospects, the key limitations and conditions for the effective use of clinician judgment, and the extent to which it can be optimized and professionalized for medical use.

  9. The 'cumulative' formulation of (physiologically) structured population models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Diekmann, O.; Gyllenberg, M.; Metz, J.A.J.; Thieme, H.R.; Clément, P.P.; Lumer, G.

    1994-01-01

    bibliographical data to be processed -- Evolution equations, control theory, and biomathematics (Han sur Lesse, 1991) Pages: 145--154 Series: Lecture Notes in Pure and Appl. Math. Vol: 155 -- Dekker (New York) -- 9

  10. Barriers and facilitators to replicating an evidence-based palliative care model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, E Maxwell; Jamison, Paula; Brumley, Richard; Enguídanos, Susan

    2006-01-01

    Recognition of the difficulties involved in replicating evidence- based interventions is well documented in the literature within the medical field. Promising research findings are often not translated into practice, and if they are, there is a significant time gap between study conclusion and practice adoption. The purpose of this article is to describe the barriers and facilitators encountered by two managed care organizations while replicating an evidence-based end of life in-home palliative care model. Using Diffusion of Innovation Theory as a theoretical framework, results from focus groups and interviews with the project's clinical, administrative and research teams are presented and recommendations made for improving translational efforts. The process of replicating the end of life in-home palliative care model clearly illustrated the key elements required for successfully diffusing innovation. These key elements include marketing and communication, leadership, organizational support and training and mentorship. This qualitative process study provides clear, real world perspectives of the myriad of challenges encountered in replicating an evidence-based project.

  11. Cumulative Trauma Among Mayas Living in Southeast Florida.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millender, Eugenia I; Lowe, John

    2016-01-04

    Mayas, having experienced genocide, exile, and severe poverty, are at high risk for the consequences of cumulative trauma that continually resurfaces through current fear of an uncertain future. Little is known about the mental health and alcohol use status of this population. This correlational study explored t/he relationship of cumulative trauma as it relates to social determinants of health (years in the United States, education, health insurance status, marital status, and employment), psychological health (depression symptoms), and health behaviors (alcohol use) of 102 Guatemalan Mayas living in Southeast Florida. The results of this study indicated that, as specific social determinants of health and cumulative trauma increased, depression symptoms (particularly among women) and the risk for harmful alcohol use (particularly among men) increased. Identifying risk factors at an early stage before serious disease or problems are manifest provides room for early screening leading to early identification, early treatment, and better outcomes.

  12. Solid-state electro-cumulation effect numerical simulation

    CERN Document Server

    Grishin, V G

    2001-01-01

    It is an attempt to simulate as really as possible a crystal's interatomic interaction under conditions of "Solid-state electro-cumulation (super-polarization) effect". Some theoretical and experimental reasons to believe that within solid substances an interparticles interaction could concentrate from the surface to a centre were given formerly. Now, numerical results show the conditions that could make the cumulation more effective. Another keywords: ion, current, solid, symmetry, cumulation, polarization, depolarization, ionic conductor,superionic conductor, ice, crystal, strain, V-center, V-centre, doped crystal, interstitial impurity, intrinsic color center, high pressure technology, Bridgman, anvil, experiment, crowdion, dielectric, proton, layer, defect, lattice, dynamics, electromigration, mobility, muon catalysis, concentration, doping, dopant, conductivity, pycnonuclear reaction, permittivity, dielectric constant, point defects, interstitials, polarizability, imperfection, defect centers, glass, epi...

  13. Baltic Sea biodiversity status vs. cumulative human pressures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Jesper H.; Halpern, Benjamin S.; Korpinen, Samuli

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Many studies have tried to explain spatial and temporal variations in biodiversity status of marine areas from a single-issue perspective, such as fishing pressure or coastal pollution, yet most continental seas experience a wide range of human pressures. Cumulative impact assessments have...... been developed to capture the consequences of multiple stressors for biodiversity, but the ability of these assessments to accurately predict biodiversity status has never been tested or ground-truthed. This relationship has similarly been assumed for the Baltic Sea, especially in areas with impaired...... status, but has also never been documented. Here we provide a first tentative indication that cumulative human impacts relate to ecosystem condition, i.e. biodiversity status, in the Baltic Sea. Thus, cumulative impact assessments offer a promising tool for informed marine spatial planning, designation...

  14. Neimark-Sacker bifurcations and evidence of chaos in a discrete dynamical model of walkers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahman, Aminur; Blackmore, Denis

    2016-10-01

    Bouncing droplets on a vibrating fluid bath can exhibit wave-particle behavior, such as being propelled by interacting with its own wave field. These droplets seem to walk across the bath, and thus are dubbed walkers. Experiments have shown that walkers can exhibit exotic dynamical behavior indicative of chaos. While the integro-differential models developed for these systems agree well with the experiments, they are difficult to analyze mathematically. In recent years, simpler discrete dynamical models have been derived and studied numerically. The numerical simulations of these models show evidence of exotic dynamics such as period doubling bifurcations, Neimark--Sacker (N--S) bifurcations, and even chaos. For example, in [Gilet, PRE 2014], based on simulations Gilet conjectured the existence of a supercritical N-S bifurcation as the damping factor in his one-dimensional path model. We prove Gilet's conjecture and more; in fact, both supercritical and subcritical (N-S) bifurcations are produced by separately varying the damping factor and wave-particle coupling for all eigenmode shapes. Then we compare our theoretical results with some previous and new numerical simulations, and find complete qualitative agreement. Furthermore, evidence of chaos is shown by numerically studying a global bifurcation.

  15. Cumulative creep-fatigue damage evolution in an austenitic stainless steel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mcgaw, Michael A.

    1992-01-01

    A model of cumulative creep-fatigue damage has been developed which is based on the use of damage curve equations to describe the evolution of creep-fatigue damage for four basic creep-fatigue cycle types. These cycle types correspond to the four fundamental cycles of the Strain Range Partitioning Life Prediction approach of Manson, Halford, and Hirschberg. A concept referred to as Damage Coupling is introduced to analytically account for the differences in the nature of the damage introduced by each cycle type. For application of this model, the cumulative creep-fatigue damage behavior of type 316 stainless steel at 816 C has been experimentally established for the two-level loading cases involving fatigue and creep-fatigue, in various permutations. The tests were conducted such that the lower life (high strain) cycling was applied first, for a controlled number of cycles, and the higher life (lower strain) cycling was conducted at the second level, to failure. The proposed model correlated the majority of the observed cumulative creep-fatigue data.

  16. Relevance of the Glutathione System in Temporal Lobe Epilepsy: Evidence in Human and Experimental Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Noemí Cárdenas-Rodríguez

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Oxidative stress, which is a state of imbalance in the production of reactive oxygen species and nitrogen, is induced by a wide variety of factors. This biochemical state is associated with diseases that are systemic as well as diseases that affect the central nervous system. Epilepsy is a chronic neurological disorder, and temporal lobe epilepsy represents an estimated 40% of all epilepsy cases. Currently, evidence from human and experimental models supports the involvement of oxidative stress during seizures and in the epileptogenesis process. Hence, the aim of this review was to provide information that facilitates the processing of this evidence and investigate the therapeutic impact of the biochemical status for this specific pathology.

  17. Evidence for the effectiveness of different service delivery models in early intervention services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kingsley, Karrie; Mailloux, Zoe

    2013-01-01

    Consideration of the evidence for all aspects of service delivery is a growing relevant concern of occupational therapists, including those providing early intervention to children and families. We conducted a review of the literature to uncover what evidence existed for determining the effectiveness of different service delivery models and methods used to improve occupational performance for children and families who receive early intervention services. Through a comprehensive search, we reviewed and synthesized studies, finding common themes of family-centered and routine-based approaches, service setting, and the inclusion of parent participation and training. Families consistently reported positive perceptions of family-centered and routine-based approaches. Parent participation and training resulted in positive outcomes. No specific setting or method of service delivery was identified as clearly most effective, with most studies reporting combined approaches and environments for interventions.

  18. Relevance of the Glutathione System in Temporal Lobe Epilepsy: Evidence in Human and Experimental Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cárdenas-Rodríguez, Noemí; Coballase-Urrutia, Elvia; Pérez-Cruz, Claudia; Montesinos-Correa, Hortencia; Rivera-Espinosa, Liliana; Sampieri, Aristides; Carmona-Aparicio, Liliana

    2014-01-01

    Oxidative stress, which is a state of imbalance in the production of reactive oxygen species and nitrogen, is induced by a wide variety of factors. This biochemical state is associated with diseases that are systemic as well as diseases that affect the central nervous system. Epilepsy is a chronic neurological disorder, and temporal lobe epilepsy represents an estimated 40% of all epilepsy cases. Currently, evidence from human and experimental models supports the involvement of oxidative stress during seizures and in the epileptogenesis process. Hence, the aim of this review was to provide information that facilitates the processing of this evidence and investigate the therapeutic impact of the biochemical status for this specific pathology. PMID:25538816

  19. Association between Helicobacter pylori Infection and Pancreatic Cancer. A Cumulative Meta-Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guru Trikudanathan

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Context Infection with Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori has been implicated in the etiopathogenesis of various malignant conditions. Notwithstanding, its etiological association with pancreatic cancer remains inconclusive. Studies focusing on the relationship between H. pylori infection and pancreatic cancer risk have yielded conflicting results. Objective The aim of this study was to obtain a reliable estimate of the risk of H. pylori infection in causing pancreatic cancer, by performing a meta-analysis of the existing observational studies evaluating the association. Methods/Statistics Observational studies comparing the prevalence of H. pylori infection in patients with pancreatic cancer and healthy controls, conducted in adult populations and published in all languages, were identified through systematic search in the MEDLINE and EMBASE up to April 2010. H. pylori infection was confirmed by serological testing using an antigen-specific enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Pooled adjusted odds ratios (AOR and associated 95% confidence intervals (CI were obtained by using a DerSimonian and Laird random-effects model. Results Six studies involving a total of 2,335 patients met our eligibility criteria. A significant association between H. pylori seropositivity and development of pancreatic cancer (AOR 1.38, 95% CI: 1.08-1.75; P=0.009 was seen. No significant association was seen on pooled analysis of the three studies assessing the relationship between cytotoxin-associated gene A (CagA positivity and pancreatic cancer. A cumulative meta-analysis suggested a reducing, albeit statistically significant association as the evidence was accumulated. Conclusions The pooled data suggests an association between infection with H. pylori and the development of pancreatic cancer. Further research is needed to confirm our findings.

  20. System Dynamics and Modified Cumulant Neglect Closure Schemes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Köylüoglu, H. Ugur; Nielsen, Søren R.K.

    Dealing with multipeaked problems, the goal of the paper is to improve the quality of the approximations for the expectations appearing in the differential equations written for the statistical moments of the state vector, guided by insight in the system dynamics. For systems with polynomial non......-linearities, modifications in the cumulant neglect closure scheme are suggested. The methodology is illustrated using the two wells oscillator. An error analysis is performed to compare the modified and ordinary cumulant neglect closure schemes applied at the second and fourth order levels with the exact results available....

  1. Baltic Sea biodiversity status vs. cumulative human pressures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Jesper H.; Halpern, Benjamin S.; Korpinen, Samuli

    2015-01-01

    been developed to capture the consequences of multiple stressors for biodiversity, but the ability of these assessments to accurately predict biodiversity status has never been tested or ground-truthed. This relationship has similarly been assumed for the Baltic Sea, especially in areas with impaired...... status, but has also never been documented. Here we provide a first tentative indication that cumulative human impacts relate to ecosystem condition, i.e. biodiversity status, in the Baltic Sea. Thus, cumulative impact assessments offer a promising tool for informed marine spatial planning, designation...

  2. Aspect of cumulative fatigue damage under multiaxial strain cycling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zamrik, S. Y.; Tang, P. Y.

    1972-01-01

    The concept of order of loading and its effect on cumulative fatigue damage under multiaxial strain cyclings was investigated. The effect is illustrated through nonlinear relationships between biaxial fatigue damage and cycle-ratio diagrams. Uniaxial theories such as Miner's method, the convergence method, and the double linear damage rule in its special and generalized form, were examined and extended to the biaxial case through the octahedral shear strain theory. The generalized double linear damage rule was found more applicable to biaxial cumulative fatigue damage.

  3. Cumulative Incidence of Cancer After Solid Organ Transplantation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, Erin C.; Pfeiffer, Ruth M.; Segev, Dorry L.; Engels, Eric A.

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND Solid organ transplantation recipients have elevated cancer incidence. Estimates of absolute cancer risk after transplantation can inform prevention and screening. METHODS The Transplant Cancer Match Study links the US transplantation registry with 14 state/regional cancer registries. The authors used nonparametric competing risk methods to estimate the cumulative incidence of cancer after transplantation for 2 periods (1987–1999 and 2000–2008). For recipients from 2000 to 2008, the 5-year cumulative incidence, stratified by organ, sex, and age at transplantation, was estimated for 6 preventable or screen-detectable cancers. For comparison, the 5-year cumulative incidence was calculated for the same cancers in the general population at representative ages using Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results data. RESULTS Among 164,156 recipients, 8520 incident cancers were identified. The absolute cancer risk was slightly higher for recipients during the period from 2000 to 2008 than during the period from 1987 to 1999 (5-year cumulative incidence: 4.4% vs 4.2%; P =.006); this difference arose from the decreasing risk of competing events (5-year cumulative incidence of death, graft failure, or retransplantation: 26.6% vs 31.9%; P 50 years; range, 0.36%–2.22%). For recipients aged >50 years, the 5-year cumulative incidence was higher for colorectal cancer (range, 0.33%–1.94%) than for the general population at the recommended screening age (aged 50 years: range, 0.25%–0.33%). For recipients aged >50 years, the 5-year cumulative incidence was high for lung cancer among thoracic organ recipients (range, 1.16%–3.87%) and for kidney cancer among kidney recipients (range, 0.53%–0.84%). The 5-year cumulative incidence for prostate cancer and breast cancer was similar or lower in transplantation recipients than at the recommended ages of screening in the general population. CONCLUSIONS Subgroups of transplantation recipients have a high absolute risk

  4. A study of cumulative fatigue damage in AISI 4130 steel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeelani, S.; Musial, M.

    1986-01-01

    Experimental data were obtained using AISI 4130 steel under stress ratios of -1 and 0. A study of cumulative fatigue damage using Miner's and Kramer's equations for stress ratios of -1 and 0 for low-high, low-high-mixed, high-low, and high-low-mixed stress sequences has revealed that there is a close agreement between the theoretical and experimental values of fatigue damage and fatigue life. Kramer's equation predicts less conservative and more realistic cumulative fatigue damage than the popularly used Miner's rule does.

  5. Cumulative Risk and Adolescent's Internalizing and Externalizing Problems: The Mediating Roles of Maternal Responsiveness and Self-Regulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doan, Stacey N.; Fuller-Rowell, Thomas E.; Evans, Gary W.

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of the present study was to examine longitudinal associations among maternal responsiveness, self-regulation, and behavioral adjustment in adolescents. The authors used structural equation modeling to test a model that demonstrates that the effects of early cumulative risk on behavioral problems is mediated by maternal responsiveness…

  6. Nrf2 Signaling and the Slowed Aging Phenotype: Evidence from Long-Lived Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Danielle R. Bruns

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Studying long-lived animals provides novel insight into shared characteristics of aging and represents a unique model to elucidate approaches to prevent chronic disease. Oxidant stress underlies many chronic diseases and resistance to stress is a potential mechanism governing slowed aging. The transcription factor nuclear factor (erythroid-derived 2-like 2 is the “master regulator” of cellular antioxidant defenses. Nrf2 is upregulated by some longevity promoting interventions and may play a role in regulating species longevity. However, Nrf2 expression and activity in long-lived models have not been well described. Here, we review evidence for altered Nrf2 signaling in a variety of slowed aging models that accomplish lifespan extension via pharmacological, nutritional, evolutionary, genetic, and presumably epigenetic means.

  7. Irrelevant sensory stimuli interfere with working memory storage: evidence from a computational model of prefrontal neurons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bancroft, Tyler D; Hockley, William E; Servos, Philip

    2013-03-01

    The encoding of irrelevant stimuli into the memory store has previously been suggested as a mechanism of interference in working memory (e.g., Lange & Oberauer, Memory, 13, 333-339, 2005; Nairne, Memory & Cognition, 18, 251-269, 1990). Recently, Bancroft and Servos (Experimental Brain Research, 208, 529-532, 2011) used a tactile working memory task to provide experimental evidence that irrelevant stimuli were, in fact, encoded into working memory. In the present study, we replicated Bancroft and Servos's experimental findings using a biologically based computational model of prefrontal neurons, providing a neurocomputational model of overwriting in working memory. Furthermore, our modeling results show that inhibition acts to protect the contents of working memory, and they suggest a need for further experimental research into the capacity of vibrotactile working memory.

  8. Facilitating Lewin's change model with collaborative evaluation in promoting evidence based practices of health professionals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manchester, Julianne; Gray-Miceli, Deanna L; Metcalf, Judith A; Paolini, Charlotte A; Napier, Anne H; Coogle, Constance L; Owens, Myra G

    2014-12-01

    Evidence based practices (EBPs) in clinical settings interact with and adapt to host organizational characteristics. The contextual factors themselves, surrounding health professions' practices, also adapt as practices become sustained. The authors assert the need for better planning models toward these contextual factors, the influence of which undergird a well-documented science to practice gap in literature on EBPs. The mechanism for EBP planners to anticipate contextual effects as programs Unfreeze their host settings, create Movement, and become Refrozen (Lewin, 1951) is present in Lewin's 3-step change model. Planning for contextual change appears equally important as planning for the actual practice outcomes among providers and patients. Two case studies from a Geriatric Education Center network will illustrate the synthesis of Lewin's three steps with collaborative evaluation principles. The use of the model may become an important tool for continuing education evaluators or organizations beginning a journey toward EBP demonstration projects in clinical settings.

  9. Gene × Environment Interactions in Schizophrenia: Evidence from Genetic Mouse Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marr, Julia; Bock, Gavin; Desbonnet, Lieve; Waddington, John

    2016-01-01

    The study of gene × environment, as well as epistatic interactions in schizophrenia, has provided important insight into the complex etiopathologic basis of schizophrenia. It has also increased our understanding of the role of susceptibility genes in the disorder and is an important consideration as we seek to translate genetic advances into novel antipsychotic treatment targets. This review summarises data arising from research involving the modelling of gene × environment interactions in schizophrenia using preclinical genetic models. Evidence for synergistic effects on the expression of schizophrenia-relevant endophenotypes will be discussed. It is proposed that valid and multifactorial preclinical models are important tools for identifying critical areas, as well as underlying mechanisms, of convergence of genetic and environmental risk factors, and their interaction in schizophrenia. PMID:27725886

  10. Cumulative effects of fecal contamination from combined sewer overflows: Management for source water protection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jalliffier-Verne, Isabelle; Heniche, Mourad; Madoux-Humery, Anne-Sophie; Galarneau, Martine; Servais, Pierre; Prévost, Michèle; Dorner, Sarah

    2016-06-01

    The quality of a drinking water source depends largely on upstream contaminant discharges. Sewer overflows can have a large influence on downstream drinking water intakes as they discharge untreated or partially treated wastewaters that may be contaminated with pathogens. This study focuses on the quantification of Escherichia coli discharges from combined sewer overflows (CSOs) and the dispersion and diffusion in receiving waters in order to prioritize actions for source water protection. E. coli concentrations from CSOs were estimated from monitoring data at a series of overflow structures and then applied to the 42 active overflow structures between 2009 and 2012 using a simple relationship based upon the population within the drainage network. From these estimates, a transport-dispersion model was calibrated with data from a monitoring program from both overflow structures and downstream drinking water intakes. The model was validated with 15 extreme events such as a large number of overflows (n > 8) or high concentrations at drinking water intakes. Model results demonstrated the importance of the cumulative effects of CSOs on the degradation of water quality downstream. However, permits are typically issued on a discharge point basis and do not consider cumulative effects. Source water protection plans must consider the cumulative effects of discharges and their concentrations because the simultaneous discharge of multiple overflows can lead to elevated E. coli concentrations at a drinking water intake. In addition, some CSOs have a disproportionate impact on peak concentrations at drinking water intakes. As such, it is recommended that the management of CSOs move away from frequency based permitting at the discharge point to focus on the development of comprehensive strategies to reduce cumulative and peak discharges from CSOs upstream of drinking water intakes.

  11. Cumulative Effects of Barriers on the Movements of Forest Birds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marc Bélisle

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available Although there is a consensus of opinion that habitat fragmentation has deleterious effects on animal populations, primarily by inhibiting dispersal among remaining patches, there have been few explicit demonstrations of the ways by which degraded habitats actually constrain individual movement. Two impediments are primarily responsible for this paucity: it is difficult to separate the effects of habitat fragmentation (configuration from habitat loss (composition, and conventional measures of fragmented habitats are assumed to be, but probably are not, isotropic. We addressed these limitations by standardizing differences in forest cover in a clearly anisotropic configuration of habitat fragmentation by conducting a homing experiment with three species of forest birds in the Bow Valley of Banff National Park, Canada. Birds were translocated (1.2-3.5  km either parallel or perpendicular to four/five parallel barriers that are assumed to impede the cross-valley travel of forest-dependent animals. Taken together, individuals exhibited longer return times when they were translocated across these barriers, but differences among species suggest a more complex interpretation. A long-distance migrant (Yellow-rumped Warbler, Dendroica coronata behaved as predicted, but a short-distance migrant (Golden-crowned Kinglet, Regulus satrapa was indifferent to barrier configuration. A resident (Red-breasted Nuthatch, Sitta canadensis exhibited longer return times when it was translocated parallel to the barriers. Our results suggest that an anisotropic arrangement of small, open areas in fragmented landscapes can have a cumulative barrier effect on the movement of forest animals, but that both modelers and managers will have to acknowledge potentially counterintuitive differences among species to predict the effect that these may have on individual movement and, ultimately, dispersal.

  12. Conceptualising a model to guide nursing and midwifery in the community guided by an evidence review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leahy-Warren, Patricia; Mulcahy, Helen; Benefield, Lazelle; Bradley, Colin; Coffey, Alice; Donohoe, Ann; Fitzgerald, Serena; Frawley, Tim; Healy, Elizabeth; Healy, Maria; Kelly, Marcella; McCarthy, Bernard; McLoughlin, Kathleen; Meagher, Catherine; O'Connell, Rhona; O'Mahony, Aoife; Paul, Gillian; Phelan, Amanda; Stokes, Diarmuid; Walsh, Jessica; Savage, Eileen

    2017-01-01

    Successful models of nursing and midwifery in the community delivering healthcare throughout the lifespan and across a health and illness continuum are limited, yet necessary to guide global health services. Primary and community health services are the typical points of access for most people and the location where most care is delivered. The scope of primary healthcare is complex and multifaceted and therefore requires a practice framework with sound conceptual and theoretical underpinnings. The aim of this paper is to present a conceptual model informed by a scoping evidence review of the literature. A scoping evidence review of the literature was conducted using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) statement. Databases included CINAHL, MEDLINE, PsycINFO and SocINDEX using the EBSCO platform and the Cochrane Library using the keywords: model, nursing, midwifery, community, primary care. Grey literature for selected countries was searched using the Google 'advanced' search interface. Data extraction and quality appraisal for both empirical and grey literature were conducted independently by two reviewers. From 127 empirical and 24 non-empirical papers, data extraction parameters, in addition to the usual methodological features, included: the nature of nursing and midwifery; the population group; interventions and main outcomes; components of effective nursing and midwifery outcomes. The evidence was categorised into six broad areas and subsequently synthesised into four themes. These were not mutually exclusive: (1) Integrated and Collaborative Care; (2) Organisation and Delivery of Nursing and Midwifery Care in the Community; (3) Adjuncts to Nursing Care and (4) Overarching Conceptual Model. It is the latter theme that is the focus of this paper. In essence, the model depicts a person/client on a lifespan and preventative-curative trajectory. The health related needs of the client, commensurate with their point

  13. Cumulative childhood trauma and psychological maladjustment of sexually abused children in Korea: mediating effects of emotion regulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Ji Young; Oh, Kyung Ja

    2014-02-01

    The purpose of the present study was to identify the mediating effects of emotion regulation on the association between cumulative childhood trauma and behavior problems in sexually abused children in Korea, using structural equation modeling (SEM). Data were collected on 171 children (ages 6-13 years) referred to a public counseling center for sexual abuse in Seoul, Korea. Cumulative childhood traumas were defined on the basis of number of traumas (physical abuse, witnessing domestic violence, neglect, traumatic separation from parent, and sexual abuse) and the severity and duration of traumas. Children were evaluated by their parents on emotion regulation using the Emotion Regulation Checklist and internalizing and externalizing behavior problems using the Korean-Child Behavior Checklist. SEM analyses confirmed the complete mediation model, in which emotion dysregulation fully mediates the relationship between cumulative childhood traumas and internalizing/externalizing behavior problems. These findings indicate that emotion regulation is an important mechanism that can explain the negative effects of cumulative childhood traumas and that there is a need to focus on emotion regulation in sexually abused children exposed to cumulative trauma. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Ductility and Strength Reduction Factors for Degrading Structures Considering Cumulative Damage

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edén Bojórquez

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The effect of cumulative damage on the strength requirements of degrading structures is assessed through the evaluation of the target ductility and corresponding strength reduction factors of simple degrading structures. While the reduction on ductility is established through the use of Park and Ang index, the suggestions given by Bojórquez and Rivera are used to model the degradation of the structural properties of the simple systems. Target ductilities and their corresponding reduced strength reduction factors are established for five sets of ground motions; most of them are recorded in California. The results given in this paper provide insight into all relevant parameters that should be considered during seismic design of earthquake-resistant structures. Finally, some recommendations to evaluate the effect of cumulative damage on seismic design are suggested.

  15. Research and application of mineral resources assessment by weights of evidence model based on SIG

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yuanyuan Chuai; Keyan Xiao; Yihua Xuan; Shaobin Zhan

    2006-01-01

    Geological data are usually of the characteristics of multi-source, large amount and multi-scale. The construction of Spatial Information Grid overcomes the shortages of personal computers when dealing with geological data. The authors introduce the definition, architecture and flow of mineral resources assessment by weights of evidence model based on Spatial Information Grid (SIG). Meanwhile, a case study on the prediction of copper mineral occurrence in the Middle-Lower Yangtze metallogenic belt is given. The results show that mineral resources assessement based on SIG is an effective new method which provides a way of sharing and integrating distributed geospatial information and improves the efficiency greatly.

  16. Biofuels and Land Use Change: Applying Recent Evidence to Model Estimates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wallace E. Tyner

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Biofuels impact on global land use has been a controversial yet important topic. Up until recently, there has not been enough biofuels to have caused major land use change, so the evidence from actual global land use data has been scant. However, in the past decade, there have been 72 million hectares added to global crop cover. In this research we take advantage of this new data to calibrate the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP model and parameters. We make two major changes. First, we calibrate the land transformation parameters (called constant elasticity of transformation, CET to global regions so that the parameters better reflect the actual land cover change that has occurred. Second, we alter the land cover nesting structure. In the old GTAP model, cropland, pasture, and forest were all in the same nest suggesting, everything else being equal, that pasture or forest convert to cropland with equal ease and cost. However, we now take advantage of the fact that pasture converts to cropland at lower cost than forest. The paper provides the theoretical and empirical justification for these two model improvements. Then it re-evaluates the global land use impacts due to the USA ethanol program using the improved model tuned with actual observations. Finally, it shows that compared to the old model, the new model projects: (1 less expansion in global cropland due to ethanol expansion; (2 lower U.S. share in global cropland expansion; (3 and lower forest share in global cropland expansion.

  17. Confirmatory factor analysis for the Eating Disorder Examination Questionnaire: Evidence supporting a three-factor model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnes, Jennifer; Prescott, Tim; Muncer, Steven

    2012-12-01

    The purpose of this investigation was to compare the goodness-of-fit of a one factor model with the four factor model proposed by Fairburn (2008) and the three factor model proposed by Peterson and colleagues (2007) for the Eating Disorder Examination Questionnaire (EDE-Q 6.0) (Fairburn and Beglin, 1994). Using a cross-sectional design, the EDE-Q was completed by 569 adults recruited from universities and eating disorder charities in the UK. Confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) was carried out for both the student and non-student groups. CFA indicated that Peterson et al.'s (2007) three factor model was the best fit for both groups within the current data sample. Acceptable levels of internal reliability were observed and there was clear evidence for a hierarchical factor of eating disorder. The results of this study provide support for the three factor model of the EDE-Q suggested by Peterson and colleagues (2007) in that this model was appropriate for both the student and non-student sample populations. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Cumulative (DisAdvantage and the Matthew Effect in Life-Course Analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miia Bask

    Full Text Available To foster a deeper understanding of the mechanisms behind inequality in society, it is crucial to work with well-defined concepts associated with such mechanisms. The aim of this paper is to define cumulative (disadvantage and the Matthew effect. We argue that cumulative (disadvantage is an intra-individual micro-level phenomenon, that the Matthew effect is an inter-individual macro-level phenomenon and that an appropriate measure of the Matthew effect focuses on the mechanism or dynamic process that generates inequality. The Matthew mechanism is, therefore, a better name for the phenomenon, where we provide a novel measure of the mechanism, including a proof-of-principle analysis using disposable personal income data. Finally, because socio-economic theory should be able to explain cumulative (disadvantage and the Matthew mechanism when they are detected in data, we discuss the types of models that may explain the phenomena. We argue that interactions-based models in the literature traditions of analytical sociology and statistical mechanics serve this purpose.

  19. Evidence Feed Forward Hidden Markov Model: A New Type of Hidden Markov Model

    CERN Document Server

    DelRose, Michael; Frederick, Philip; 10.5121/ijaia.2011.2101

    2011-01-01

    The ability to predict the intentions of people based solely on their visual actions is a skill only performed by humans and animals. The intelligence of current computer algorithms has not reached this level of complexity, but there are several research efforts that are working towards it. With the number of classification algorithms available, it is hard to determine which algorithm works best for a particular situation. In classification of visual human intent data, Hidden Markov Models (HMM), and their variants, are leading candidates. The inability of HMMs to provide a probability in the observation to observation linkages is a big downfall in this classification technique. If a person is visually identifying an action of another person, they monitor patterns in the observations. By estimating the next observation, people have the ability to summarize the actions, and thus determine, with pretty good accuracy, the intention of the person performing the action. These visual cues and linkages are important...

  20. Genetic evidence and integration of various data sources for classifying uncertain variants into a single model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldgar, David E; Easton, Douglas F; Byrnes, Graham B; Spurdle, Amanda B; Iversen, Edwin S; Greenblatt, Marc S

    2008-11-01

    Genetic testing often results in the finding of a variant whose clinical significance is unknown. A number of different approaches have been employed in the attempt to classify such variants. For some variants, case-control, segregation, family history, or other statistical studies can provide strong evidence of direct association with cancer risk. For most variants, other evidence is available that relates to properties of the protein or gene sequence. In this work we propose a Bayesian method for assessing the likelihood that a variant is pathogenic. We discuss the assessment of prior probability, and how to combine the various sources of data into a statistically valid integrated assessment with a posterior probability of pathogenicity. In particular, we propose the use of a two-component mixture model to integrate these various sources of data and to estimate the parameters related to sensitivity and specificity of specific kinds of evidence. Further, we discuss some of the issues involved in this process and the assumptions that underpin many of the methods used in the evaluation process.

  1. RECURSIVE CLASSIFICATION OF MQAM SIGNALS BASED ON HIGHER ORDER CUMULANTS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Chen Weidong; Yang Shaoquan

    2002-01-01

    A new feature based on higher order cumulants is proposed for classification of MQAM signals. Theoretical analysis justify that the new feature is invariant with respect to translation (shift), scale and rotation transform of signal constellations, and can suppress color or white additive Gaussian noise. Computer simulation shows that the proposed recursive orderreduction based classification algorithm can classify MQAM signals with any order.

  2. Cumulative psychosocial stress, coping resources, and preterm birth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDonald, Sheila W; Kingston, Dawn; Bayrampour, Hamideh; Dolan, Siobhan M; Tough, Suzanne C

    2014-12-01

    Preterm birth constitutes a significant international public health issue, with implications for child and family well-being. High levels of psychosocial stress and negative affect before and during pregnancy are contributing factors to shortened gestation and preterm birth. We developed a cumulative psychosocial stress variable and examined its association with early delivery controlling for known preterm birth risk factors and confounding environmental variables. We further examined this association among subgroups of women with different levels of coping resources. Utilizing the All Our Babies (AOB) study, an ongoing prospective pregnancy cohort study in Alberta, Canada (n = 3,021), multinomial logistic regression was adopted to examine the independent effect of cumulative psychosocial stress and preterm birth subgroups compared to term births. Stratified analyses according to categories of perceived social support and optimism were undertaken to examine differential effects among subgroups of women. Cumulative psychosocial stress was a statistically significant risk factor for late preterm birth (OR = 1.73; 95 % CI = 1.07, 2.81), but not for early preterm birth (OR = 2.44; 95 % CI = 0.95, 6.32), controlling for income, history of preterm birth, pregnancy complications, reproductive history, and smoking in pregnancy. Stratified analyses showed that cumulative psychosocial stress was a significant risk factor for preterm birth at psychosocial stress on the risk for early delivery.

  3. Is learning in problem-based learning cumulative?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    E.H.J. Yew (Elaine); E. Chng (Esther); H.G. Schmidt (Henk)

    2011-01-01

    textabstractProblem-based learning (PBL) is generally organized in three phases, involving collaborative and self-directed learning processes. The hypothesis tested here is whether learning in the different phases of PBL is cumulative, with learning in each phase depending on that of the previous ph

  4. Cumulative assessment : Strategic choices to influence students' study effort

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kerdijk, Wouter; Tio, Rene A.; Mulder, B. Florentine; Cohen-Schotanus, Janke

    2013-01-01

    Background: It has been asserted that assessment can and should be used to drive students' learning. In the current study, we present a cumulative assessment program in which test planning, repeated testing and compensation are combined in order to influence study effort. The program is aimed at hel

  5. Repeated mild injury causes cumulative damage to hippocampal cells

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    E.J. Matser (Amy); C.I. de Zeeuw (Chris); J.T. Weber (John)

    2002-01-01

    textabstractAn interesting hypothesis in the study of neurotrauma is that repeated traumatic brain injury may result in cumulative damage to cells of the brain. However, post-injury sequelae are difficult to address at the cellular level in vivo. Therefore, it is necessary to compl

  6. The effects of cumulative practice on mathematics problem solving.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mayfield, Kristin H; Chase, Philip N

    2002-01-01

    This study compared three different methods of teaching five basic algebra rules to college students. All methods used the same procedures to teach the rules and included four 50-question review sessions interspersed among the training of the individual rules. The differences among methods involved the kinds of practice provided during the four review sessions. Participants who received cumulative practice answered 50 questions covering a mix of the rules learned prior to each review session. Participants who received a simple review answered 50 questions on one previously trained rule. Participants who received extra practice answered 50 extra questions on the rule they had just learned. Tests administered after each review included new questions for applying each rule (application items) and problems that required novel combinations of the rules (problem-solving items). On the final test, the cumulative group outscored the other groups on application and problem-solving items. In addition, the cumulative group solved the problem-solving items significantly faster than the other groups. These results suggest that cumulative practice of component skills is an effective method of training problem solving.

  7. Cumulative index 1981-1985, Volumes 138-157.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1985-01-01

    This cumulative index also includes listings of all major papers from the American Journal of Neuroradiology, American Journal of Roentgenology, Clinics in Diagnostic Ultrasound, Journal of Computer Assisted Tomography, Journal of Ultrasound in Medicine, RadioGraphics, Radiologic Clinics of North America, Seminars in Nuclear Medicine, Seminars in Roentgenology, and Seminars in Ultrasound, CT and MR.

  8. Cumulative index 1981-1985, Volumes 138-157

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1985-01-01

    This cumulative index also includes listings of all major papers from the American Journal of Neuroradiology, American Journal of Roentgenology, Clinics in Diagnostic Ultrasound, Journal of Computer Assisted Tomography, Journal of Ultrasound in Medicine, RadioGraphics, Radiologic Clinics of North America, Seminars in Nuclear Medicine, Seminars in Roentgenology, and Seminars in Ultrasound, CT and MR.

  9. An evidence-based health workforce model for primary and community care

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leach Matthew J

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The delivery of best practice care can markedly improve clinical outcomes in patients with chronic disease. While the provision of a skilled, multidisciplinary team is pivotal to the delivery of best practice care, the occupational or skill mix required to deliver this care is unclear; it is also uncertain whether such a team would have the capacity to adequately address the complex needs of the clinic population. This is the role of needs-based health workforce planning. The objective of this article is to describe the development of an evidence-informed, needs-based health workforce model to support the delivery of best-practice interdisciplinary chronic disease management in the primary and community care setting using diabetes as a case exemplar. Discussion Development of the workforce model was informed by a strategic review of the literature, critical appraisal of clinical practice guidelines, and a consensus elicitation technique using expert multidisciplinary clinical panels. Twenty-four distinct patient attributes that require unique clinical competencies for the management of diabetes in the primary care setting were identified. Patient attributes were grouped into four major themes and developed into a conceptual model: the Workforce Evidence-Based (WEB planning model. The four levels of the WEB model are (1 promotion, prevention, and screening of the general or high-risk population; (2 type or stage of disease; (3 complications; and (4 threats to self-care capacity. Given the number of potential combinations of attributes, the model can account for literally millions of individual patient types, each with a distinct clinical team need, which can be used to estimate the total health workforce requirement. Summary The WEB model was developed in a way that is not only reflective of the diversity in the community and clinic populations but also parsimonious and clear to present and operationalize. A key feature of the

  10. 20 CFR 498.217 - Evidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... value is substantially outweighed by the danger of unfair prejudice, confusion of the issues, or by considerations of undue delay or needless presentation of cumulative evidence. (d) Although relevant,...

  11. Evidence evaluation in fingerprint comparison and automated fingerprint identification systems--modelling within finger variability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Egli, Nicole M; Champod, Christophe; Margot, Pierre

    2007-04-11

    Recent challenges and errors in fingerprint identification have highlighted the need for assessing the information content of a papillary pattern in a systematic way. In particular, estimation of the statistical uncertainty associated with this type of evidence is more and more called upon. The approach used in the present study is based on the assessment of likelihood ratios (LRs). This evaluative tool weighs the likelihood of evidence given two mutually exclusive hypotheses. The computation of likelihood ratios on a database of marks of known sources (matching the unknown and non-matching the unknown mark) allows an estimation of the evidential contribution of fingerprint evidence. LRs are computed taking advantage of the scores obtained from an automated fingerprint identification system and hence are based exclusively on level II features (minutiae). The AFIS system attributes a score to any comparison (fingerprint to fingerprint, mark to mark and mark to fingerprint), used here as a proximity measure between the respective arrangements of minutiae. The numerator of the LR addresses the within finger variability and is obtained by comparing the same configurations of minutiae coming from the same source. Only comparisons where the same minutiae are visible both on the mark and on the print are therefore taken into account. The denominator of the LR is obtained by cross-comparison with a database of prints originating from non-matching sources. The estimation of the numerator of the LR is much more complex in terms of specific data requirements than the estimation of the denominator of the LR (that requires only a large database of prints from an non-associated population). Hence this paper addresses specific issues associated with the numerator or within finger variability. This study aims at answering the following questions: (1) how a database for modelling within finger variability should be acquired; (2) whether or not the visualisation technique or the

  12. Low Level Evidence Suggests That Librarian-Led Instruction in Evidence Based Practice is Effective Regardless of Instructional Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lindsay J. Alcock

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available A Review of: Swanberg, S. M., Dennison, C. C., Farrell, A., Machel, V., Marton, C., O'Brien, K. K., … & Holyoke, A. N. (2016. Instructional methods used by health sciences librarians to teach evidence-based practice (EBP: a systematic review. Journal of the Medical Library Association: JMLA, 104(3, 197-208. http://dx.doi.org/10.3163/1536-5050.104.3.004 Abstract Objective – To determine both the instructional methods and their effectiveness in teaching evidence based practice (EBP by librarians in health sciences curricula. Design – Systematic review. Setting – A total of 16 databases, Google Scholar, and MLA Annual Meeting abstracts. Subjects – There were 27 studies identified through a systematic literature search. Methods – An exhaustive list of potential articles was gathered through searching 16 online databases, Google Scholar, and MLA Annual Conference abstracts. Inclusion and exclusion criteria were identified to inform the literature search and determine article eligibility. Duplicates were removed and the remaining search results were divided into sets and assigned to two reviewers who screened first by title/abstract and then by full-text. A third reviewer addressed disagreement in article inclusion. Data extraction, using a validated method described by Koufogiannakis and Wiebe (2006, and critical appraisal, using the Glasgow checklist (1999, were performed concurrently. Main Results – After removal of duplicates 30,043 articles were identified for initial title/abstract screening. Of the 637 articles assessed for full-text screening 26 articles and 1 conference proceeding ultimately met all eligibility criteria. There was no meta-analysis included in the synthesis. There were 16 articles published in library and information science journals and 10 in health sciences journals. Of those studies, 22 were conducted in the United States. A wide range of user groups was identified as participants in the studies with medical

  13. A Modified Model of Failure Mode and Effects Analysis Based on Generalized Evidence Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deyun Zhou

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Due to the incomplete knowledge, how to handle the uncertain risk factors in failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA is still an open issue. This paper proposes a new generalized evidential FMEA (GEFMEA model to handle the uncertain risk factor, which may not be included in the conventional FMEA model. In GEFMEA, not only the conventional risk factors, the occurrence, severity, and detectability of the failure mode, but also the other incomplete risk factors are taken into consideration. In addition, the relative importance among all these risk factors is well addressed in the proposed method. GEFMEA is based on the generalized evidence theory, which is efficient in handling incomplete information in the open world. The efficiency and some merit of the proposed method are verified by the numerical example and a real case study on aircraft turbine rotor blades.

  14. A fractal model for nuclear organization: current evidence and biological implications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bancaud, Aurélien; Lavelle, Christophe; Huet, Sébastien; Ellenberg, Jan

    2012-10-01

    Chromatin is a multiscale structure on which transcription, replication, recombination and repair of the genome occur. To fully understand any of these processes at the molecular level under physiological conditions, a clear picture of the polymorphic and dynamic organization of chromatin in the eukaryotic nucleus is required. Recent studies indicate that a fractal model of chromatin architecture is consistent with both the reaction-diffusion properties of chromatin interacting proteins and with structural data on chromatin interminglement. In this study, we provide a critical overview of the experimental evidence that support a fractal organization of chromatin. On this basis, we discuss the functional implications of a fractal chromatin model for biological processes and propose future experiments to probe chromatin organization further that should allow to strongly support or invalidate the fractal hypothesis.

  15. Validity of Quinpirole Sensitization Rat Model of OCD: Linking Evidence from Animal and Clinical Studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ales Stuchlik

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD is a neuropsychiatric disorder with 1-3% prevalence. OCD is characterized by recurrent thoughts (obsessions and repetitive behaviors (compulsions. The pathophysiology of OCD remains unclear, stressing the importance of pre-clinical studies. The aim of this article is to critically review a proposed animal model of OCD that is characterized by the induction of compulsive checking and behavioral sensitization to the D2/D3 dopamine agonist quinpirole.. Changes in this model have been reported at the level of brain structures, neurotransmitter systems and other neurophysiological aspects. In this review, we consider these alterations in relation to the clinical manifestations in OCD, with the aim to discuss and evaluate axes of validity of this model. Our analysis shows that some axes of validity of quinpirole sensitization model (QSM are strongly supported by clinical findings, such as behavioral phenomenology or roles of brain structures. Evidence on predictive validity is contradictory and ambiguous. It is concluded that this model is useful in the context of searching for the underlying pathophysiological basis of the disorder because of the relatively strong biological similarities with OCD.

  16. Causality, mathematical models and statistical association: dismantling evidence-based medicine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, R Paul

    2010-04-01

    From humble beginnings, largely at the medical school at McMaster University, Canada, the evidence-based medicine (EBM) movement has enjoyed a spectacular rise in international acceptance over the last 25 years. Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and systematic reviews based on them have pride of place (the gold standard) in EBM's hierarchy of evidence; models and theories are relegated to the bottom of the hierarchy. In the last decade, RCTs have been extensively criticized. I briefly rehearse those criticisms because they are an important backdrop to the criticism of EBM developed in this paper. In essence, the argument developed here is that RCTs use mathematics solely as a tool of analysis rather than as the language of the science and that this fundamentally affects the validity of causal claims. As EBM gives pride of place to RCTs and devalues theoretical models - a devaluation that would be incomprehensible to a physicist or biologist - the validity of EBM's causal claims and knowledge claims are weak and far from a 'gold standard'.

  17. CUMULANTS OF STOCHASTIC RESPONSE FOR A CLASS OF SPECIAL NONHOLONOMIC SYSTEMS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SHANG MEI; ZHANG YI

    2001-01-01

    This paper studies the response cumulants for a kind of special nonholonomic systems under non-Gaussian, delta- correlated excitations. We present a new methodology for formulating the equations governing the evolution of the response cumulants of the stochastic dynamic systems. The response cumulant differential equations (CDEs) derived can be used to calculate the response cumulants for both linear and nonlinear systems. One example is given to illustrate how to use the CDEs for calculating response cumulants.

  18. Do Multiple Concussions Lead to Cumulative Cognitive Deficits? A Literature Review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yumul, Joy Noelle; McKinlay, Audrey

    2016-11-01

    A concussion is an important health concern for children and adolescents, particularly in the context of sporting injuries. Some research suggests a cumulative effect from multiple concussions (also referred to as mild traumatic brain injury), which creates a dilemma when considering how to manage children and young persons who may experience multiple concussive events within a sporting season. However, there is very little research regarding the outcomes of multiple concussions and their optimal management. The purpose of this review is to evaluate the evidence regarding the cognitive outcomes of multiple concussions. After assessing the eligibility of the articles from the literature search, 7 studies were identified and included in the review. In most of the available literature, the cognitive outcomes related to multiple concussions are measured during the same developmental age as when the injuries happened. Moreover, most studies that investigated multiple concussions are focused on sports-related injuries, and only some are conducted in children and adolescents in the general population. The current evidence is inconclusive; whereas some studies reported adverse outcomes, others reported null findings. The studies that reported adverse or cumulative effects based their findings on worse cognitive outcomes, more subjective symptoms, and prolonged recovery postinjury. II. Copyright © 2016 American Academy of Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Improved Evidence-Based Genome-scale Metabolic Models for Maize Leaf, Embryo, and Endosperm

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Seaver, Samuel M.D.; Frelin, Oceane; Bradbury, Louis M.T.; Zarecki, Raphy; Ruppin, Eytan; Hanson, Andrew D.; Henry, Christopher S.

    2015-03-10

    There is a growing demand for genome-scale metabolic reconstructions for plants, fueled by the need to understand the metabolic basis of crop yield and by progress in genome and transcriptome sequencing. Methods are also required to enable the interpretation of plant transcriptome data to study how cellular metabolic activity varies under different growth conditions or even within different organs, tissues, and developmental stages. Such methods depend extensively on the accuracy with which genes have been mapped to the biochemical reactions in the plant metabolic pathways. Errors in these mappings lead to metabolic reconstructions with an inflated number of reactions and possible generation of unreliable metabolic phenotype predictions. Here we introduce a new evidence-based genome-scale metabolic reconstruction of maize, with significant improvements in the quality of the gene-reaction associations included within our model. We also present a new approach for applying our model to predict active metabolic genes based on transcriptome data. This method includes a minimal set of reactions associated with low expression genes to enable activity of a maximum number of reactions associated with high expression genes. We apply this method to construct an organ-specific model for the maize leaf, and tissue specific models for maize embryo and endosperm cells. We validate our models using fluxomics data for the endosperm and embryo, demonstrating an improved capacity of our models to fit the available fluxomics data. All models are publicly available via the DOE Systems Biology Knowledgebase and PlantSEED, and our new method is generally applicable for analysis transcript profiles from any plant, paving the way for further in silico studies with a wide variety of plant genomes.

  20. Improved Evidence-Based Genome-scale Metabolic Models for Maize Leaf, Embryo, and Endosperm.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samuel eSeaver

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available There is a growing demand for genome-scale metabolic reconstructions for plants, fueled by the need to understand the metabolic basis of crop yield and by progress in genome and transcriptome sequencing. Methods are also required to enable the interpretation of plant transcriptome data to study how cellular metabolic activity varies under different growth conditions or even within different organs, tissues, and developmental stages. Such methods depend extensively on the accuracy with which genes have been mapped to the biochemical reactions in the plant metabolic pathways. Errors in these mappings lead to metabolic reconstructions with an inflated number of reactions and possible generation of unreliable metabolic phenotype predictions. Here we introduce a new evidence-based genome-scale metabolic reconstruction of maize, with significant improvements in the quality of the gene-reaction associations included within our model. We also present a new approach for applying our model to predict active metabolic genes based on transcriptome data. This method includes a minimal set of reactions associated with low expression genes to enable activity of a maximum number of reactions associated with high expression genes. We apply this method to construct an organ-specific model for the maize leaf, and tissue specific models for maize embryo and endosperm cells. We validate our models using fluxomics data for the endosperm and embryo, demonstrating an improved capacity of our models to fit the available fluxomics data. All models are publicly available via the DOE Systems Biology Knowledgebase and PlantSEED, and our new method is generally applicable for analysis transcript profiles from any plant, paving the way for further in silico studies with a wide variety of plant genomes.

  1. Behavior and finite-size effects of the sixth order cumulant in the three-dimensional Ising universality class

    CERN Document Server

    Pan, Xue; Wu, Yuan-Fang

    2016-01-01

    The high-order cumulants of conserved charges are suggested to be sensitive observables to search for the critical point of Quantum Chromodynamics (QCD). The order has been calculated to the sixth one at experiments. The corresponding theoretical studies on the sixth order cumulant are necessary. Based on the universality of the critical behavior, we study the temperature dependence of the sixth order cumulant of the order parameter using the parametric representation of the three-dimensional Ising model, which is expected to be in the same universality class with QCD. The density plot of the sign of the sixth order cumulant is shown on the temperature and external magnetic field plane. We found that when the critical point is approached from the crossover side, the sixth order cumulant is negative. Qualitatively, the trend is similar to the result of Monte Carlo simulation on a finite-size system. Quantitatively, the temperature of the sign change is different. Through Monte Carlo simulation of the Ising mod...

  2. Cumulative Doses of T-Cell Depleting Antibody and Cancer Risk after Kidney Transplantation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jenny H C Chen

    Full Text Available T-cell depleting antibody is associated with an increased risk of cancer after kidney transplantation, but a dose-dependent relationship has not been established. This study aimed to determine the association between cumulative doses of T-cell depleting antibody and the risk of cancer after kidney transplantation. Using data from the Australian and New Zealand Dialysis and Transplant Registry between 1997-2012, we assessed the risk of incident cancer and cumulative doses of T-cell depleting antibody using adjusted Cox regression models. Of the 503 kidney transplant recipients with 2835 person-years of follow-up, 276 (55%, 209 (41% and 18 (4% patients received T-cell depleting antibody for induction, rejection or induction and rejection respectively. The overall cancer incidence rate was 1,118 cancers per 100,000 patient-years, with 975, 1093 and 1377 cancers per 100,000 patient-years among those who had received 1-5 doses, 6-10 doses and >10 doses, respectively. There was no association between cumulative doses of T cell depleting antibody and risk of incident cancer (1-5: referent, 6-10: adjusted hazard ratio (HR 1.19, 95%CI 0.48-2.95, >10: HR 1.42, 95%CI 0.50-4.02, p = 0.801. This lack of association is contradictory to our hypothesis and is likely attributed to the low event rates resulting in insufficient power to detect significant differences.

  3. Analysis of grain boundary dynamics using event detection and cumulative averaging

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gautam, A.; Ophus, C. [National Center for Electron Microscopy, LBNL, Berkeley, CA 94720 (United States); Lançon, F. [Laboratoire de Simulation Atomistique L-Sim, SP2M, INAC, CEA, 38054 Grenoble (France); Denes, P. [National Center for Electron Microscopy, LBNL, Berkeley, CA 94720 (United States); Dahmen, U., E-mail: udahmen@lbl.gov [National Center for Electron Microscopy, LBNL, Berkeley, CA 94720 (United States)

    2015-04-15

    To analyze extended time series of high resolution images, we have employed automated frame-by-frame comparisons that are able to detect dynamic changes in the structure of a grain boundary in Au. Using cumulative averaging of images between events allowed high resolution measurements of the atomic relaxation in the interface with sufficient accuracy for comparison with atomistic models. Cumulative averaging was also used to observe the structural rearrangement of atomic columns at a moving step in the grain boundary. The technique of analyzing changing features in high resolution images by averaging between incidents can be used to deconvolute stochastic events that occur at random intervals and on time scales well beyond that accessible to single-shot imaging. - Highlights: • We have observed dynamic structural changes in extended time series of atomic resolution images. • Application of edge detection in the time domain isolates stochastic events in dynamic observations. • Splitting time series at stochastic events highlights changes in local atomic structure. • Cumulative averaging between events generates precise atomic resolution structural images.

  4. Non-Gaussian wave packet dynamics in anharmonic potential: Cumulant expansion treatment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toutounji, Mohamad

    2015-03-01

    This manuscript utilizes cumulant expansion as an alternative algebraic approach to evaluating integrals and solving a system of nonlinear differential equations for probing anharmonic dynamics in condensed phase systems using Morse oscillator. These integrals and differential equations become harder to solve as the anharmonicity of the system goes beyond that of Morse oscillator description. This algebraic approach becomes critically important in case of Morse oscillator as it tends to exhibit divergent dynamics and numerical uncertainties at low temperatures. The autocorrelation function is calculated algebraically and compared to the exact one for they match perfectly. It is also compared to the approximate autocorrelation function using the differential equations technique reported in Toutounji (2014) for weak and strong electron-phonon coupling cases. It is found that the present cumulant method is more efficient, and easier to use, than the exact expression. Deviation between the approximate autocorrelation function and the exact autocorrelation function starts to arise as the electron-phonon coupling strength increases. The autocorrelation function obtained using cumulants identically matches the exact autocorrelation function, thereby surpassing the approach presented in Toutounji (2014). The advantage of the present methodology is its applicability to various types of electron-phonon coupling cases. Additionally, the herein approach only uses algebraic techniques, thereby avoiding both the divergence integral and solving a set of linear first- and second-order partial differential equations as was done in previous work. Model calculations are presented to demonstrate the accuracy of the herein work.

  5. Covariate adjustment of cumulative incidence functions for competing risks data using inverse probability of treatment weighting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neumann, Anke; Billionnet, Cécile

    2016-06-01

    In observational studies without random assignment of the treatment, the unadjusted comparison between treatment groups may be misleading due to confounding. One method to adjust for measured confounders is inverse probability of treatment weighting. This method can also be used in the analysis of time to event data with competing risks. Competing risks arise if for some individuals the event of interest is precluded by a different type of event occurring before, or if only the earliest of several times to event, corresponding to different event types, is observed or is of interest. In the presence of competing risks, time to event data are often characterized by cumulative incidence functions, one for each event type of interest. We describe the use of inverse probability of treatment weighting to create adjusted cumulative incidence functions. This method is equivalent to direct standardization when the weight model is saturated. No assumptions about the form of the cumulative incidence functions are required. The method allows studying associations between treatment and the different types of event under study, while focusing on the earliest event only. We present a SAS macro implementing this method and we provide a worked example.

  6. The Evidence in Support of Physicians and Health Care Providers as Physical Activity Role Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lobelo, Felipe; de Quevedo, Isabel Garcia

    2015-01-01

    Physical inactivity constitutes the fourth leading cause of death worldwide. Health care providers (HCPs) should play a key role in counseling and appropriately referring their patients to adopt physical activity (PA). Previous reports suggest that active HCPs are more likely to provide better, more credible, and motivating preventive counseling to their patients. This review summarizes the available evidence on the association between HCPs’ personal PA habits and their related PA counseling practices. Based on relevant studies, a snowball search strategy identified, out of 196 studies screened, a total of 47 pertinent articles published between 1979 and 2012. Of those, 23 described HCPs’ PA habits and/or their counseling practices and 24 analytic studies evaluated the association between HCPs’ personal PA habits and their PA counseling practices. The majority of studies came from the United States (n = 33), and 9 studies included nonphysicians (nurses, pharmacists, and other HCPs). PA levels were mostly self-reported, and counseling was typically assessed as self-reported frequency or perceived self-efficacy in clinical practice. Most (19 out of 24) analytic studies reported a significant positive association between HCPs’ PA habits and counseling frequency, with odds ratios ranging between 1.4 and 5.7 (P < .05), in 6 studies allowing direct comparison. This review found consistent evidence supporting the notion that physically active physicians and other HCPs are more likely to provide PA counseling to their patients and can indeed become powerful PA role models. This evidence appears sufficient to justify randomized trials to determine if adding interventions to promote PA among HCPs, also results in improvements in the frequency and quality of PA preventive counseling and referrals, delivered by HCPs, to patients in primary care settings. Future studies should also aim at objectively quantifying the effect of HCPs’ PA role-modeling and how it

  7. Evaluation of cumulative PCB exposure estimated by a job exposure matrix versus PCB serum concentrations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hopf, Nancy B; Ruder, Avima M; Succop, Paul; Waters, Martha A

    2014-05-01

    Although polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) have been banned in many countries for more than three decades, exposures to PCBs continue to be of concern due to their long half-lives and carcinogenic effects. In National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health studies, we are using semiquantitative plant-specific job exposure matrices (JEMs) to estimate historical PCB exposures for workers (n = 24,865) exposed to PCBs from 1938 to 1978 at three capacitor manufacturing plants. A subcohort of these workers (n = 410) employed in two of these plants had serum PCB concentrations measured at up to four times between 1976 and 1989. Our objectives were to evaluate the strength of association between an individual worker's measured serum PCB levels and the same worker's cumulative exposure estimated through 1977 with the (1) JEM and (2) duration of employment, and to calculate the explained variance the JEM provides for serum PCB levels using (3) simple linear regression. Consistent strong and statistically significant associations were observed between the cumulative exposures estimated with the JEM and serum PCB concentrations for all years. The strength of association between duration of employment and serum PCBs was good for highly chlorinated (Aroclor 1254/HPCB) but not less chlorinated (Aroclor 1242/LPCB) PCBs. In the simple regression models, cumulative occupational exposure estimated using the JEMs explained 14-24% of the variance of the Aroclor 1242/LPCB and 22-39% for Aroclor 1254/HPCB serum concentrations. We regard the cumulative exposure estimated with the JEM as a better estimate of PCB body burdens than serum concentrations quantified as Aroclor 1242/LPCB and Aroclor 1254/HPCB.

  8. A prospective study of cumulative job stress in relation to mental health

    Science.gov (United States)

    Godin, Isabelle; Kittel, France; Coppieters, Yves; Siegrist, Johannes

    2005-01-01

    Background This study tests associations between psychosocial stress at work measured by the effort-reward imbalance model in a dynamic perspective, and multiple indicators of poor mental health, in a prospective design. Methods 1986 male and female employees from four Belgian enterprises were followed-up over one year within the framework of the Somstress study. Based on two consecutive measurements, an index of cumulative job stress was constructed and its associations with five indicators of mental health were studied, excluding caseness at entry (for depression, anxiety, somatisation, chronic fatigue and psychotropic drug consumption respectively). Taking into account the longitudinal design, four categories of job stress are defined: 1) employees free from stress at both measures, 2) job stress present at first measure but not at the second one, 3) recent onset of job stress as evidenced by second measure 4) workers exposed to stress at both measures. Multivariate logistic regression with appropriate adjustments was applied. Results In bivariate analysis, a clear graded association of cumulative job stress with all five mental health indicators is observed, both in men and women. In multivariate logistic regression analysis, recent onset of stress is strongly associated with poor mental health among men (odds ratios ranging from 1.8 to 4.6), while cumulative stress shows strongest effects on mental health in women (odds ratios ranging from 1.4 to 7.1). Conclusion Cumulative experience and recent onset of job stress in terms of high effort spent and low reward received is associated with elevated risk of all five indicators of poor mental health at follow-up in a large cohort of employees. PMID:15958170

  9. A prospective study of cumulative job stress in relation to mental health

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Coppieters Yves

    2005-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background This study tests associations between psychosocial stress at work measured by the effort-reward imbalance model in a dynamic perspective, and multiple indicators of poor mental health, in a prospective design. Methods 1986 male and female employees from four Belgian enterprises were followed-up over one year within the framework of the Somstress study. Based on two consecutive measurements, an index of cumulative job stress was constructed and its associations with five indicators of mental health were studied, excluding caseness at entry (for depression, anxiety, somatisation, chronic fatigue and psychotropic drug consumption respectively. Taking into account the longitudinal design, four categories of job stress are defined: 1 employees free from stress at both measures, 2 job stress present at first measure but not at the second one, 3 recent onset of job stress as evidenced by second measure 4 workers exposed to stress at both measures. Multivariate logistic regression with appropriate adjustments was applied. Results In bivariate analysis, a clear graded association of cumulative job stress with all five mental health indicators is observed, both in men and women. In multivariate logistic regression analysis, recent onset of stress is strongly associated with poor mental health among men (odds ratios ranging from 1.8 to 4.6, while cumulative stress shows strongest effects on mental health in women (odds ratios ranging from 1.4 to 7.1. Conclusion Cumulative experience and recent onset of job stress in terms of high effort spent and low reward received is associated with elevated risk of all five indicators of poor mental health at follow-up in a large cohort of employees.

  10. 基于累积 Logistic 模型的居民通货膨胀异质性感受的因素研究%Empirical Analysis of Factors Leading to the Heterogeneity of Inflation Perceptions Based on the Cumulative Logistic Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    段进; 段妍; 朱静平

    2015-01-01

    通过调查问卷获取居民的通货膨胀感受及相关的个人特征等数据,运用累积 Logistic 模型,从心理层面和外部信息层面考量影响居民通货膨胀感受异质性的因素。结果表明,收入满意程度、食品价格、房租价格以及促销手段等是导致我国居民通胀感受异质性的主要因素。鉴此,政府应该提高收入满意度、稳定物价以及调节房价,以期降低通货膨胀感受的异质性。%Data related to inflation perceptions and personal characteristics are acquired through a questionnaire.By using the idea of cumulative logistic model as the empirical methodo-logical approach,this paper empirically analyzes the factors that lead to the heterogeneity of infla-tion perceptions through the psychological and external information aspects of the formation of inflation perceptions.The results show that income satisfaction,food price,rent and marketing are the factors with significant effects on the heterogeneity of inflation perceptions.The govern-ment should enhance income satisfaction,stabilize prices and regulate houses price and rent in or-der to decrease the heterogeneity of inflation perception.

  11. Geomorphic and Modeling Evidence for a Late Pleistocene Cirque Glacier in Southwest England

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knight, J.; Harrison, S.; Rowan, A. V.

    2014-12-01

    Several small ice caps have been identified outside of the margins of the last (late Devensian) British ice sheet, but few sites in the uplands of southwest England show evidence for late Devensian niche/cirque glaciers and/or perennial snowbanks. Here we present evidence for the southernmost site yet discovered, in west Penwith, Cornwall. Here, a NE-facing hollow developed on granite bedrock is surrounded by tors with deep bedrock fractures and displaced angular blocks. Bedrock is exposed at the base of the hollow but sediments form a subdued ridge, interpreted as a terminal moraine, at the front of the hollow. The sediments comprise gravelly diamicton containing facetted clasts that are occasionally striated, interbedded with sand lenses. Sediments are deformed by periglacial involutions. We used a 2-D glacier energy balance and iceflow model (Plummer and Phillips, 2003, Quat Sci Rev) to discover if the climatic conditions during the late Devensian could have sustained a cirque glacier at this site. Met Office regional climate data (1981-2010) were used to define mean monthly air temperatures, lapse rate, precipitation, cloudiness and relative humidity, and surface energy fluxes were calculated based on solar position during the present day and last glacial maximum (LGM). We ran a range of different glacier model simulations to test an envelope of late Devensian paleoclimate conditions inferred from other climate proxies. Model results suggest that a cirque glacier could have formed at this site under conditions equivalent to a change in temperature from present-day values of -8.5°C accompanied by a 20% decrease in precipitation, which is consistent with the regional LGM. Response times for these simulations are greater than 500 years, indicating that it is unlikely that such cirque glaciers maintained steady state and were instead short-lived features.

  12. Neurobiological model of obsessive-compulsive disorder: evidence from recent neuropsychological and neuroimaging findings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakao, Tomohiro; Okada, Kayo; Kanba, Shigenobu

    2014-08-01

    Obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) was previously considered refractory to most types of therapeutic intervention. There is now, however, ample evidence that selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors and behavior therapy are highly effective methods for treatment of OCD. Furthermore, recent neurobiological studies of OCD have found a close correlation between clinical symptoms, cognitive function, and brain function. A large number of previous neuroimaging studies using positron emission tomography, single-photon emission computed tomography or functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) have identified abnormally high activities throughout the frontal cortex and subcortical structures in patients with OCD. Most studies reported excessive activation of these areas during symptom provocation. Furthermore, these hyperactivities were decreased after successful treatment using either selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors or behavioral therapy. Based on these findings, an orbitofronto-striatal model has been postulated as an abnormal neural circuit that mediates symptomatic expression of OCD. On the other hand, previous neuropsychological studies of OCD have reported cognitive dysfunction in executive function, attention, nonverbal memory, and visuospatial skills. Moreover, recent fMRI studies have revealed a correlation between neuropsychological dysfunction and clinical symptoms in OCD by using neuropsychological tasks during fMRI. The evidence from fMRI studies suggests that broader regions, including dorsolateral prefrontal and posterior regions, might be involved in the pathophysiology of OCD. Further, we should consider that OCD is heterogeneous and might have several different neural systems related to clinical factors, such as symptom dimensions. This review outlines recent neuropsychological and neuroimaging studies of OCD. We will also describe several neurobiological models that have been developed recently. Advanced findings in these fields will update the

  13. Expansion of the Glauber equation of motion in terms of cumulants powers. Statistical properties of the Glauber equation of motion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bury, T.

    2012-01-01

    We present an expansion of the Glauber equation of motion in terms of cumulants of the effective fields. We show that we recover a part of the fluctuations with a simple third order expansion. We illustrate the method with an application to the 2D square lattice Ising model with nearest neighbors. For the special case of perturbed non gaussian effective fields, we show that only the first cumulants are significative. Furthermore it can be shown that the resulting distribution is closer to the normal distribution than the unperturbed fields one. It leads to the conclusion that we can consistently truncate the expansion of the exact Glauber equation of motion.

  14. A sampling-based computational strategy for the representation of epistemic uncertainty in model predictions with evidence theory.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johnson, J. D. (Prostat, Mesa, AZ); Oberkampf, William Louis; Helton, Jon Craig (Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ); Storlie, Curtis B. (North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC)

    2006-10-01

    Evidence theory provides an alternative to probability theory for the representation of epistemic uncertainty in model predictions that derives from epistemic uncertainty in model inputs, where the descriptor epistemic is used to indicate uncertainty that derives from a lack of knowledge with respect to the appropriate values to use for various inputs to the model. The potential benefit, and hence appeal, of evidence theory is that it allows a less restrictive specification of uncertainty than is possible within the axiomatic structure on which probability theory is based. Unfortunately, the propagation of an evidence theory representation for uncertainty through a model is more computationally demanding than the propagation of a probabilistic representation for uncertainty, with this difficulty constituting a serious obstacle to the use of evidence theory in the representation of uncertainty in predictions obtained from computationally intensive models. This presentation describes and illustrates a sampling-based computational strategy for the representation of epistemic uncertainty in model predictions with evidence theory. Preliminary trials indicate that the presented strategy can be used to propagate uncertainty representations based on evidence theory in analysis situations where naive sampling-based (i.e., unsophisticated Monte Carlo) procedures are impracticable due to computational cost.

  15. Effect of sulfate aerosol on tropospheric NOx and ozone budgets: Model simulations and TOPSE evidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tie, Xuexi; Emmons, Louisa; Horowitz, Larry; Brasseur, Guy; Ridley, Brian; Atlas, Elliot; Stround, Craig; Hess, Peter; Klonecki, Andrzej; Madronich, Sasha; Talbot, Robert; Dibb, Jack

    2003-02-01

    The distributions of NOx and O3 are analyzed during TOPSE (Tropospheric Ozone Production about the Spring Equinox). In this study these data are compared with the calculations of a global chemical/transport model (Model for OZone And Related chemical Tracers (MOZART)). Specifically, the effect that hydrolysis of N2O5 on sulfate aerosols has on tropospheric NOx and O3 budgets is studied. The results show that without this heterogeneous reaction, the model significantly overestimates NOx concentrations at high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) in winter and spring in comparison to the observations during TOPSE; with this reaction, modeled NOx concentrations are close to the measured values. This comparison provides evidence that the hydrolysis of N2O5 on sulfate aerosol plays an important role in controlling the tropospheric NOx and O3 budgets. The calculated reduction of NOx attributed to this reaction is 80 to 90% in winter at high latitudes over North America. Because of the reduction of NOx, O3 concentrations are also decreased. The maximum O3 reduction occurs in spring although the maximum NOx reduction occurs in winter when photochemical O3 production is relatively low. The uncertainties related to uptake coefficient and aerosol loading in the model is analyzed. The analysis indicates that the changes in NOx due to these uncertainties are much smaller than the impact of hydrolysis of N2O5 on sulfate aerosol. The effect that hydrolysis of N2O5 on global NOx and O3 budgets are also assessed by the model. The results suggest that in the Northern Hemisphere, the average NOx budget decreases 50% due to this reaction in winter and 5% in summer. The average O3 budget is reduced by 8% in winter and 6% in summer. In the Southern Hemisphere (SH), the sulfate aerosol loading is significantly smaller than in the Northern Hemisphere. As a result, sulfate aerosol has little impact on NOx and O3 budgets of the Southern Hemisphere.

  16. Experience of cumulative effects assessment in the UK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Piper Jake

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Cumulative effects assessment (CEA is a development of environmental impact assessment which attempts to take into account the wider picture of what impacts may affect the environment as a result of either multiple or linear projects, or development plans. CEA is seen as a further valuable tool in promoting sustainable development. The broader canvas upon which the assessment is made leads to a suite of issues such as complexity in methods and assessment of significance, the desirability of co-operation between developers and other parties, new ways of addressing mitigation and monitoring. After outlining the legislative position and the process of CEA, this paper looks at three cases studies in the UK where cumulative assessment has been carried out - the cases concern wind farms, major infrastructure and off-shore developments.

  17. Determination of radionuclides and pathways contributing to cumulative dose

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Napier, B.A.

    1992-12-01

    A series of scoping calculations has been undertaken to evaluate the absolute and relative contributions of different radionuclides and exposure pathways to doses that may have been received by individuals living in the vicinity of the Hanford Site. This scoping calculation (Calculation 004) examined the contributions of numerous radionuclides to cumulative dose via environmental exposures and accumulation in foods. Addressed in this calculation were the contributions to organ and effective dose of infants and adults from (1) air submersion and groundshine external dose, (2) inhalation, (3) ingestion of soil by humans, (4) ingestion of leafy vegetables, (5) ingestion of other vegetables and fruits, (6) ingestion of meat, (7) ingestion of eggs, and (8) ingestion of cows' milk from Feeding Regime 1, as described in calculation 002. This calculation specifically addresses cumulative radiation doses to infants and adults resulting from releases occurring over the period 1945 through 1972.

  18. Cumulative impacts of oil fields on northern alaskan landscapes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walker, D A; Webber, P J; Binnian, E F; Everett, K R; Lederer, N D; Nordstrand, E A; Walker, M D

    1987-11-06

    Proposed further developments on Alaska's Arctic Coastal Plain raise questions about cumulative effects on arctic tundra ecosystems of development of multiple large oil fields. Maps of historical changes to the Prudhoe Bay Oil Field show indirect impacts can lag behind planned developments by many years and the total area eventually disturbed can greatly exceed the planned area of construction. For example, in the wettest parts of the oil field (flat thaw-lake plains), flooding and thermokarst covered more than twice the area directly affected by roads and other construction activities. Protecting critical wildlife habitat is the central issue for cumulative impact analysis in northern Alaska. Comprehensive landscape planning with the use of geographic information system technology and detailed geobotanical maps can help identify and protect areas of high wildlife use.

  19. Cumulants and Correlation Functions vs the QCD phase diagram

    CERN Document Server

    Bzdak, Adam; Strodthoff, Nils

    2016-01-01

    In this note we discuss the relation of particle number cumulants and correlation functions related to them. It is argued that measuring couplings of the genuine correlation functions could provide cleaner information on possible non-trivial dynamics in heavy-ion collisions. We extract integrated multi-particle correlation functions from the presently available experimental data on proton cumulants. We find that the STAR data contain significant four-particle correlations, at least at the lower energies, with indication of changing dynamics in central collisions. We also find that these correlations are rather long-ranged in rapidity. Finally based on the signs of genuine correlation functions we provide exclusion plots for the QCD phase diagram.

  20. Cumulants of heat transfer across nonlinear quantum systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Huanan; Agarwalla, Bijay Kumar; Li, Baowen; Wang, Jian-Sheng

    2013-12-01

    We consider thermal conduction across a general nonlinear phononic junction. Based on two-time observation protocol and the nonequilibrium Green's function method, heat transfer in steady-state regimes is studied, and practical formulas for the calculation of the cumulant generating function are obtained. As an application, the general formalism is used to study anharmonic effects on fluctuation of steady-state heat transfer across a single-site junction with a quartic nonlinear on-site pinning potential. An explicit nonlinear modification to the cumulant generating function exact up to the first order is given, in which the Gallavotti-Cohen fluctuation symmetry is found still valid. Numerically a self-consistent procedure is introduced, which works well for strong nonlinearity.

  1. Living cumulative network meta-analysis to reduce waste in research: A paradigmatic shift for systematic reviews?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vandvik, Per Olav; Brignardello-Petersen, Romina; Guyatt, Gordon H

    2016-03-29

    In a recent research article in BMC Medicine, Créquit and colleagues demonstrate how published systematic reviews in lung cancer provide a fragmented, out-of-date picture of the evidence for all treatments. The results and conclusions drawn from this study, based on cumulative network meta-analyses (NMA) of evidence from randomized clinical trials over time, are quite compelling. The inherent waste of research resulting from incomplete evidence synthesis has wide-reaching implications for a range of target groups including developers of systematic reviews and guidelines and their end-users, health care professionals and patients at the point of care. Building on emerging concepts for living systematic reviews and NMA, the authors propose "living cumulative NMA" as a potential solution and paradigmatic shift. Here we describe how recent innovations within authoring, dissemination, and updating of systematic reviews and trustworthy guidelines may greatly facilitate the production of living NMA. Some additional challenges need to be solved for NMA in general, and for living cumulative NMA in particular, before a paradigmatic shift for systematic reviews can become reality.Please see related research article: https://bmcmedicine.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12916-016-0555-0.

  2. Heavy metal cumulation in crops after the sewage sludge application

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gondová Andrea

    1998-12-01

    Full Text Available During 1995 - 1996 the crops samples after the sewage sludge application were collected. The heavy metals cumulation in investigated crops from Bardejov increased in order: Zn > Cu > Pb > Ni > Cr > Cd and Banská Bystrica : Zn > Cu > Cr > Ni > Pb > Cd. Heavy metals contents after the sewage sludge application were increased in comparison with the highest admissible concentration in eatable part of crops. The sewage sludge application were not recommended in soils for the growth of vegetables

  3. The cumulation of methylmercury in fish (Poecilia reticulata)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stary, J.; Kratzer, K.; Havlik, B.; Prasilova, J.; Hanusova, J.

    1980-01-01

    Methylmercury labelled with mercury-203 was used for the investigation of the uptake and the release of methylmercury in fish. It has been found that methylmercury compounds adsorbed on fish food remain completely in fish and that they are released with the biological half-time of 110 days. The cumulation of methylmercury from water is very rapid. Equations for the calculation of the concentration of methylmercury in fish were derived and compared with the uptake of phenylmercury and inorganic mercury.

  4. Erupted cumulate fragments in rhyolites from Lipari (Aeolian Islands)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forni, Francesca; Ellis, Ben S.; Bachmann, Olivier; Lucchi, Federico; Tranne, Claudio A.; Agostini, Samuele; Dallai, Luigi

    2015-12-01

    Over the last ~267 ky, the island of Lipari has erupted magmas ranging in compositions from basaltic andesites to rhyolites, with a notable compositional gap in the dacite field. Bulk geochemical and isotopic compositions of the volcanic succession, in conjunction with major and trace elemental compositions of minerals, indicate that the rhyolites were dominantly generated via crystal fractionation processes, with subordinate assimilation. Radiogenic (Sr, Nd, and Pb) and stable (O) isotopes independently suggest ≤30 % of crustal contamination with the majority of it occurring in mafic compositions, likely relatively deep in the system. Within the rhyolites, crystal-rich, K2O-rich enclaves are common. In contrast to previous interpretations, we suggest that these enclaves represent partial melting, remobilization and eruption of cumulate fragments left-over from rhyolite melt extraction. Cumulate melting and remobilization is supported by the presence of (1) resorbed, low-temperature minerals (biotite and sanidine), providing the potassic signature to these clasts, (2) reacted Fo-rich olivine, marking the presence of mafic recharge, (3) An38-21 plagioclase, filling the gap in feldspar composition between the andesites and the rhyolites and (4) strong enrichment in Sr and Ba in plagioclase and sanidine, suggesting crystallization from a locally enriched melt. Based on Sr-melt partitioning, the high-Sr plagioclase would require ~2300 ppm Sr in the melt, a value far in excess of Sr contents in Lipari and Vulcano magmas (50-1532 ppm) but consistent with melting of a feldspar-rich cumulate. Due to the presence of similar crystal-rich enclaves within the rhyolites from Vulcano, we propose that the eruption of remobilized cumulates associated with high-SiO2 rhyolites may be a common process at the Aeolian volcanoes, as already attested for a variety of volcanic systems around the world.

  5. [Cumulative effect of Coriolis acceleration on coronary hemodynamics].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lapaev, E V; Bednenko, V S

    1985-01-01

    Time-course variations in coronary circulation and cardiac output were measured in 29 healthy test subjects who performed tests with a continuous cumulation of Coriolis accelerations and in 12 healthy test subjects who were exposed to Coriolis accelerations combined with acute hypoxia. Adaptive changes in coronary circulation were seen. It is recommended to monitor coronary circulation during vestibulometric tests as part of medical expertise of the flying personnel.

  6. Separating limits on preparation versus online processing in multitasking paradigms: Evidence for resource models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mittelstädt, Victor; Miller, Jeff

    2017-01-01

    We conducted 2 multitasking experiments to examine the finding that first-task reaction times (RTs) are slower in the psychological refractory period (PRP) paradigm than in the prioritized processing (PP) paradigm. To see whether this difference between the 2 paradigms could be explained entirely by differences in first-task preparation, which would be consistent with the standard response selection bottleneck (RSB) model for multitasking interference, we compared the size of this difference for trials in which a second-task stimulus actually occurred against the size of the difference for trials without any second-task stimulus. The slowing of first-task RTs in the PRP paradigm relative to the PP paradigm was larger when the second-task stimulus appeared than when it did not, indicating that the difference cannot be explained entirely by between-paradigm differences in first-task preparation. Instead, the results suggest that the slowing of first-task RTs in the PRP paradigm relative to the PP paradigm is partly because of differences between paradigms in the online reallocation of processing capacity to tasks. Thus, the present results provide new evidence supporting resource models over the RSB model. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

  7. Chiral recognition of metalaxyl enantiomers by human serum albumin: evidence from molecular modeling and photophysical approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ding, Fei; Li, Xiu-Nan; Diao, Jian-Xiong; Sun, Ye; Zhang, Li; Sun, Ying

    2012-06-01

    Metalaxyl is an acylamine fungicide, belonging to the most widely known member of the amide group. This task is aimed to scrutinize binding region and spatial structural change of principal vector human serum albumin (HSA) complex with (R)-/(S)-metalaxyl by exploiting molecular modeling, steady-state and time-resolved fluorescence, and circular dichroism (CD) approaches. According to molecular modeling, (R)-metalaxyl is situated within subdomains IIA and IIIA and the affinity of site I with (R)-metalaxyl is greater than site II, whereas (S)-metalaxyl is only located at subdomain IIA and the affinity of (S)-metalaxyl with site I is superior compared with that with (R)-metalaxyl. This coincides with the competitive ligand binding, guanidine hydrochloride-induced unfolding of protein, and hydrophobic 8-anilino-1-naphthalenesulfonic acid experiments; the acting forces between (R)-/(S)-metalaxyl and HSA are hydrophobic, π-π interactions, and hydrogen bonds, as derived from molecular modeling. Fluorescence emission manifested that the complex of (R)-/(S)-metalaxyl to HSA is the formation of adduct with an affinity of 10(4) M(-1), which corroborates the time-resolved fluorescence that the static type was operated. Furthermore, the changes of far-UV CD spectra evidence the polypeptide chain of HSA partially unfolded after conjugation with (R)-/(S)-metalaxyl. Through this work, we envisage that it can offer central clues on the biodistribution, absorption, and bioaccumulation of (R)-/(S)-metalaxyl. Copyright © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  8. Nutrition and dementia care: developing an evidence-based model for nutritional care in nursing homes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murphy, Jane L; Holmes, Joanne; Brooks, Cindy

    2017-02-14

    There is a growing volume of research to offer improvements in nutritional care for people with dementia living in nursing homes. Whilst a number of interventions have been identified to support food and drink intake, there has been no systematic research to understand the factors for improving nutritional care from the perspectives of all those delivering care in nursing homes. The aim of this study was to develop a research informed model for understanding the complex nutritional problems associated with eating and drinking for people with dementia. We conducted nine focus groups and five semi-structured interviews with those involved or who have a level of responsibility for providing food and drink and nutritional care in nursing homes (nurses, care workers, catering assistants, dietitians, speech and language therapists) and family carers. The resulting conceptual model was developed by eliciting care-related processes, thus supporting credibility from the perspective of the end-users. The seven identified domain areas were person-centred nutritional care (the overarching theme); availability of food and drink; tools, resources and environment; relationship to others when eating and drinking; participation in activities; consistency of care and provision of information. This collaboratively developed, person-centred model can support the design of new education and training tools and be readily translated into existing programmes. Further research is needed to evaluate whether these evidence-informed approaches have been implemented successfully and adopted into practice and policy contexts and can demonstrate effectiveness for people living with dementia.

  9. Embedding inflation into the Standard Model - more evidence for classical scale invariance

    CERN Document Server

    Kannike, Kristjan; Raidal, Martti

    2014-01-01

    If cosmological inflation is due to a slowly rolling single inflation field taking trans-Planckian values as suggested by the BICEP2 measurement of primordial tensor modes in CMB, embedding inflation into the Standard Model challenges standard paradigm of effective field theories. Together with an apparent absence of Planck scale contributions to the Higgs mass and to the cosmological constant, BICEP2 provides further experimental evidence for the absence of large $M_{\\rm P}$ induced operators. We show that classical scale invariance, the paradigm that all fundamental scales in Nature are induced by quantum effects, solves the problem and allows for a remarkably simple scale-free Standard Model extension with inflaton without extending the gauge group. Due to trans-Planckian inflaton values and vevs, a dynamically induced Coleman-Weinberg-type inflaton potential of the model can predict tensor-to-scalar ratio $r$ in a large range, converging around the prediction of chaotic $m^2\\phi^2$ inflation for a large t...

  10. Are effects of emotion expression on trait impressions mediated by babyfaceness? Evidence from connectionist modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zebrowitz, Leslie A; Kikuchi, Masako; Fellous, Jean-Marc

    2007-05-01

    Two studies provided evidence that bolsters the Marsh, Adams, and Kleck hypothesis that the morphology of certain emotion expressions reflects an evolved adaptation to mimic babies or mature adults. Study 1 found differences in emotion expressions' resemblance to babies using objective indices of babyfaceness provided by connectionist models that are impervious to overlapping cultural stereotypes about babies and the emotions. Study 2 not only replicated parallels between impressions of certain emotions and babies versus adults but also showed that objective indices of babyfaceness partially mediated impressions of the emotion expressions. babyface effects were independent of strong effects of attractiveness, and babyfaceness did not mediate impressions of happy expressions, to which the evolutionary hypothesis would not apply.

  11. Advancing Integration Through Evidence Informed Practice: Northwestern Health Sciences University’s Integrated Educational Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Barry; Delagran, Louise; Baldwin, Lori; Hanson, Linda; Leininger, Brent; Vihstadt, Corrie; Evans, Roni; Jo Kreitzer, Mary; Sierpina, Victor

    2012-01-01

    A consistent theme running through the healthcare debate is the need for new care models that include collaborative, team-based care. There is also growing recognition that interprofessional education is critical to achieving collaborative, patient-centered care. Not unlike conventional, biomedical professions, CAM (complementary and alternative medicine) professions have also educated students in silos with little interaction between various disciplines. Northwestern Health Sciences University, under their NIH NCCAM-funded R-25 grant, is breaking new ground in requiring that their students in chiropractic, massage, and OAM complete a common course in evidence informed practice. A previous Explore column described the core competencies that the students are required to achieve. This column focuses on the practicalities and challenges of offering a course to students enrolled in three different degree programs. Perhaps it will stimulate readers to consider how we might achieve interprofessional education that brings together all health professional students, biomedical and CAM. PMID:22051565

  12. Tinnitus with a normal audiogram: physiological evidence for hidden hearing loss and computational model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaette, Roland; McAlpine, David

    2011-09-21

    Ever since Pliny the Elder coined the term tinnitus, the perception of sound in the absence of an external sound source has remained enigmatic. Traditional theories assume that tinnitus is triggered by cochlear damage, but many tinnitus patients present with a normal audiogram, i.e., with no direct signs of cochlear damage. Here, we report that in human subjects with tinnitus and a normal audiogram, auditory brainstem responses show a significantly reduced amplitude of the wave I potential (generated by primary auditory nerve fibers) but normal amplitudes of the more centrally generated wave V. This provides direct physiological evidence of "hidden hearing loss" that manifests as reduced neural output from the cochlea, and consequent renormalization of neuronal response magnitude within the brainstem. Employing an established computational model, we demonstrate how tinnitus could arise from a homeostatic response of neurons in the central auditory system to reduced auditory nerve input in the absence of elevated hearing thresholds.

  13. Febrile seizures - semiology in humans and animal models: evidence of focality and heterogeneity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neville, Brian G R; Gindner, Diane

    2010-01-01

    The relationship between febrile seizures and hippocampal sclerosis has been the subject of longstanding discussion. Animal models for prolonged seizures have shown a clear causal relationship with focal limbic features at low dose and hippocampal damage at high dose. Careful history taking of febrile seizure semiology has shown focal early features often with clear temporal lobe elements. This would suggest that many febrile seizures are secondarily generalised hippocampal seizures. There is evidence of varying levels of epileptogenicity in specific infective causes of febrile seizures. Seizure semiology also suggests that a proportion of such seizures may be non-epileptic reflex asystolic attacks. Seizure semiology in febrile seizures deserves closer scrutiny. Copyright 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. Cumulative Risk Assessment Toolbox: Methods and Approaches for the Practitioner

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Margaret M. MacDonell

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The historical approach to assessing health risks of environmental chemicals has been to evaluate them one at a time. In fact, we are exposed every day to a wide variety of chemicals and are increasingly aware of potential health implications. Although considerable progress has been made in the science underlying risk assessments for real-world exposures, implementation has lagged because many practitioners are unaware of methods and tools available to support these analyses. To address this issue, the US Environmental Protection Agency developed a toolbox of cumulative risk resources for contaminated sites, as part of a resource document that was published in 2007. This paper highlights information for nearly 80 resources from the toolbox and provides selected updates, with practical notes for cumulative risk applications. Resources are organized according to the main elements of the assessment process: (1 planning, scoping, and problem formulation; (2 environmental fate and transport; (3 exposure analysis extending to human factors; (4 toxicity analysis; and (5 risk and uncertainty characterization, including presentation of results. In addition to providing online access, plans for the toolbox include addressing nonchemical stressors and applications beyond contaminated sites and further strengthening resource accessibility to support evolving analyses for cumulative risk and sustainable communities.

  15. Finite Volume Cumulant Expansion in QCD-Colorless Plasma

    CERN Document Server

    Ladrem, M; Al-Full, Z; Cherif, S

    2015-01-01

    Due to the finite size effects, the localisation of the phase transition in finite systems and the determination of its order, become an extremely difficult task, even in the simplest known cases. In order to identify and locate the finite volume transition point $T_{0}(V)$ of the QCD deconfinement phase transition to a Colorless QGP, we have developed a new approach using the finite size cumulant expansion of the order parameter and the $L_{mn}$-method. The first six cumulants $C_{1,2,3,4,5,6}$ with the corresponding under-normalized ratios(skewness $\\Sigma$, kurtosis $\\kappa$ ,pentosis $\\Pi_{\\pm}$ and hexosis $\\mathcal{H}_{1,2,3}$) and three unnormalized combinations of them ($\\mathcal{O}={\\mathcal{\\sigma }^{2} \\mathcal{\\kappa } }{\\mathbf{\\Sigma }^{-1} }$, $\\mathcal{U} ={\\mathcal{\\sigma }^{-2} \\mathbf{\\Sigma }^{-1} }$, $\\mathcal{N} = \\mathcal{\\sigma }^{2} \\mathcal{\\kappa }$) are calculated and studied as functions of $(T,V)$. A new approach, unifying in a clear and consistent way the definitions of cumulant...

  16. Cumulative Risk Assessment Toolbox: Methods and Approaches for the Practitioner

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacDonell, Margaret M.; Haroun, Lynne A.; Teuschler, Linda K.; Rice, Glenn E.; Hertzberg, Richard C.; Butler, James P.; Chang, Young-Soo; Clark, Shanna L.; Johns, Alan P.; Perry, Camarie S.; Garcia, Shannon S.; Jacobi, John H.; Scofield, Marcienne A.

    2013-01-01

    The historical approach to assessing health risks of environmental chemicals has been to evaluate them one at a time. In fact, we are exposed every day to a wide variety of chemicals and are increasingly aware of potential health implications. Although considerable progress has been made in the science underlying risk assessments for real-world exposures, implementation has lagged because many practitioners are unaware of methods and tools available to support these analyses. To address this issue, the US Environmental Protection Agency developed a toolbox of cumulative risk resources for contaminated sites, as part of a resource document that was published in 2007. This paper highlights information for nearly 80 resources from the toolbox and provides selected updates, with practical notes for cumulative risk applications. Resources are organized according to the main elements of the assessment process: (1) planning, scoping, and problem formulation; (2) environmental fate and transport; (3) exposure analysis extending to human factors; (4) toxicity analysis; and (5) risk and uncertainty characterization, including presentation of results. In addition to providing online access, plans for the toolbox include addressing nonchemical stressors and applications beyond contaminated sites and further strengthening resource accessibility to support evolving analyses for cumulative risk and sustainable communities. PMID:23762048

  17. Childhood poverty and health: cumulative risk exposure and stress dysregulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Gary W; Kim, Pilyoung

    2007-11-01

    A massive literature documents the inverse association between poverty or low socioeconomic status and health, but little is known about the mechanisms underlying this robust relation. We examined longitudinal relations between duration of poverty exposure since birth, cumulative risk exposure, and physiological stress in two hundred seven 13-year-olds. Chronic stress was assessed by basal blood pressure and overnight cortisol levels; stress regulation was assessed by cardiovascular reactivity to a standard acute stressor and recovery after exposure to this stressor. Cumulative risk exposure was measured by multiple physical (e.g., substandard housing) and social (e.g., family turmoil) risk factors. The greater the number of years spent living in poverty, the more elevated was overnight cortisol and the more dysregulated was the cardiovascular response (i.e., muted reactivity). Cardiovascular recovery was not affected by duration of poverty exposure. Unlike the duration of poverty exposure, concurrent poverty (i.e., during adolescence) did not affect these physiological stress outcomes. The effects of childhood poverty on stress dysregulation are largely explained by cumulative risk exposure accompanying childhood poverty.

  18. Multiway Filtering Based on Fourth-Order Cumulants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Salah Bourennane

    2005-05-01

    Full Text Available We propose a new multiway filtering based on fourth-order cumulants for the denoising of noisy data tensor with correlated Gaussian noise. The classical multiway filtering is based on the TUCKALS3 algorithm that computes a lower-rank tensor approximation. The presented method relies on the statistics of the analyzed multicomponent signal. We first recall how the well-known lower rank-(K1,…,KN tensor approximation processed by TUCKALS3 alternating least square algorithm exploits second-order statistics. Then, we propose to introduce the fourth-order statistics in the TUCKALS3-based method. Indeed, the use of fourth-order cumulants enables to remove the Gaussian components of an additive noise. In the presented method the estimation of the n-mode projector on the n-mode signal subspace are built from the eigenvectors associated with the largest eigenvalues of a fourth-order cumulant slice matrix instead of a covariance matrix. Each projector is applied by means of the n-mode product operator on the n-mode of the data tensor. The qualitative results of the improved multiway TUCKALS3-based filterings are shown for the case of noise reduction in a color image and multicomponent seismic data.

  19. Cumulative risk hypothesis: Predicting and preventing child maltreatment recidivism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solomon, David; Åsberg, Kia; Peer, Samuel; Prince, Gwendolyn

    2016-08-01

    Although Child Protective Services (CPS) and other child welfare agencies aim to prevent further maltreatment in cases of child abuse and neglect, recidivism is common. Having a better understanding of recidivism predictors could aid in preventing additional instances of maltreatment. A previous study identified two CPS interventions that predicted recidivism: psychotherapy for the parent, which was related to a reduced risk of recidivism, and temporary removal of the child from the parent's custody, which was related to an increased recidivism risk. However, counter to expectations, this previous study did not identify any other specific risk factors related to maltreatment recidivism. For the current study, it was hypothesized that (a) cumulative risk (i.e., the total number of risk factors) would significantly predict maltreatment recidivism above and beyond intervention variables in a sample of CPS case files and that (b) therapy for the parent would be related to a reduced likelihood of recidivism. Because it was believed that the relation between temporary removal of a child from the parent's custody and maltreatment recidivism is explained by cumulative risk, the study also hypothesized that that the relation between temporary removal of the child from the parent's custody and recidivism would be mediated by cumulative risk. After performing a hierarchical logistic regression analysis, the first two hypotheses were supported, and an additional predictor, psychotherapy for the child, also was related to reduced chances of recidivism. However, Hypothesis 3 was not supported, as risk did not significantly mediate the relation between temporary removal and recidivism.

  20. A framework for adaptive monitoring of the cumulative effects of human footprint on biodiversity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burton, A Cole; Huggard, David; Bayne, Erin; Schieck, Jim; Sólymos, Péter; Muhly, Tyler; Farr, Dan; Boutin, Stan

    2014-06-01

    Effective ecological monitoring is imperative in a human-dominated world, as our ability to manage functioning ecosystems will depend on understanding biodiversity responses to anthropogenic impacts. Yet, most monitoring efforts have either been narrowly focused on particular sites, species and stressors - thus inadequately considering the cumulative effects of multiple, interacting impacts at scales of management relevance - or too unfocused to provide specific guidance. We propose a cumulative effects monitoring framework that integrates multi-scaled surveillance of trends in biodiversity and land cover with targeted evaluation of hypothesized drivers of change. The framework is grounded in a flexible conceptual model and uses monitoring to generate and test empirical models that relate the status of diverse taxonomic groups to the nature and extent of human "footprint" and other landscape attributes. An adaptive cycle of standardized sampling, model development, and model evaluation provides a means to learn about the system and guide management. Additional benefits of the framework include standardized data on status and trend for a wide variety of biodiversity elements, spatially explicit models for regional planning and scenario evaluation, and identification of knowledge gaps for complementary research. We describe efforts to implement the framework in Alberta, Canada, through the Alberta Biodiversity Monitoring Institute, and identify key challenges to be addressed.

  1. Evidence for a bicritical point in the XXZ Heisenberg antiferromagnet on a simple cubic lattice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Selke, Walter

    2011-04-01

    The classical Heisenberg antiferromagnet with uniaxial exchange anisotropy (XXZ model) in a field on a simple cubic lattice is studied with the help of extensive Monte Carlo simulations. We analyze, in particular, various staggered susceptibilities and Binder cumulants and present clear evidence for the triple point of the antiferromagnetic, spin-flop, and paramagnetic phases being a bicritical point with Heisenberg symmetry. Results are compared to previous predictions applying various theoretical approaches.

  2. El Carreto o Cumulá - Aspidosperma Dugandii Standl El Carreto o Cumulá - Aspidosperma Dugandii Standl

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dugand Armando

    1944-03-01

    Full Text Available Nombres vulgares: Carreto (Atlántico, Bolívar, Magdalena; Cumulá, Cumulá (Cundinamarca, ToIima. Según el Dr. Emilio Robledo (Lecciones de Bot. ed. 3, 2: 544. 1939 el nombre Carreto también es empleado en Puerto Berrío (Antioquia. El mismo autor (loc. cit. da el nombre Comulá para una especie indeterminada de Viburnum en Mariquita (Tolima y J. M. Duque, refiriendose a la misma planta y localidad (en Bot. Gen. Colomb. 340, 356. 1943 atribuye este nombre vulgar al Aspidosperma ellipticum Rusby.  Sin embargo, las muestras de madera de Cumulá o Comulá que yo he examinado, procedentes de la región de Mariquita -una de las cuales me fue recientemente enviada por el distinguido ictiólogo Sr. Cecil Miles- pertenecen sin duda alguna al A. Dugandii StandI. Por otra parte, Santiago Cortés (FI. Colomb. 206. 1898; ed, 2: 239. 1912 cita el Cumulá "de Anapoima y otros lugares del (rio Magdalena" diciendo que pertenece a las Leguminosas, pero la brevísima descripción que este autor hace de la madera "naranjada y notable por densidad, dureza y resistencia a la humedad", me induce a creer que se trata del mismo Cumula coleccionado recientemente en Tocaima, ya que esta población esta situada a pocos kilómetros de Anapoima. Nombres vulgares: Carreto (Atlántico, Bolívar, Magdalena; Cumulá, Cumulá (Cundinamarca, ToIima. Según el Dr. Emilio Robledo (Lecciones de Bot. ed. 3, 2: 544. 1939 el nombre Carreto también es empleado en Puerto Berrío (Antioquia. El mismo autor (loc. cit. da el nombre Comulá para una especie indeterminada de Viburnum en Mariquita (Tolima y J. M. Duque, refiriendose a la misma planta y localidad (en Bot. Gen. Colomb. 340, 356. 1943 atribuye este nombre vulgar al Aspidosperma ellipticum Rusby.  Sin embargo, las muestras de madera de Cumulá o Comulá que yo he examinado, procedentes de la región de Mariquita -una de las cuales me fue recientemente enviada por el distinguido ictiólogo Sr. Cecil Miles- pertenecen sin

  3. Evaluating Cumulative Ecosystem Response to Restoration Projects in the Columbia River Estuary, Annual Report 2004

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Diefenderfer, Heida L.; Roegner, Curtis; Thom, Ronald M.; Dawley, Earl M.; Whiting, Allan H.; Johnson, Gary E.; Sobocinski, Kathryn L.; Anderson, Michael G.; Ebberts, Blaine

    2005-12-15

    The restoration of wetland salmon habitat in the tidal portion of the Columbia River is occurring at an accelerating pace and is anticipated to improve habitat quality and effect hydrological reconnection between existing and restored habitats. Currently multiple groups are applying a variety of restoration strategies in an attempt to emulate historic estuarine processes. However, the region lacks both a standardized means of evaluating the effectiveness of individual projects as well as methods for determining the cumulative effects of all restoration projects on a regional scale. This project is working to establish a framework to evaluate individual and cumulative ecosystem responses to restoration activities in order to validate the effectiveness of habitat restoration activities designed to benefit salmon through improvements to habitat quality and habitat opportunity (i.e. access) in the Columbia River from Bonneville Dam to the ocean. The review and synthesis of approaches to measure the cumulative effects of multiple restoration projects focused on defining methods and metrics of relevance to the CRE, and, in particular, juvenile salmon use of this system. An extensive literature review found no previous study assessing the cumulative effects of multiple restoration projects on the fundamental processes and functions of a large estuarine system, although studies are underway in other large land-margin ecosystems including the Florida Everglades and the Louisiana coastal wetlands. Literature from a variety of scientific disciplines was consulted to identify the ways that effects can accumulate (e.g., delayed effects, cross-boundary effects, compounding effects, indirect effects, triggers and thresholds) as well as standard and innovative tools and methods utilized in cumulative effects analyses: conceptual models, matrices, checklists, modeling, trends analysis, geographic information systems, carrying capacity analysis, and ecosystem analysis. Potential

  4. The impact of physical activity on cumulative cardiovascular disease risk factors among Malaysian adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rasiah, Rajah; Thangiah, Govindamal; Yusoff, Khalid; Manikam, Rishya; Chandrasekaran, Sankara Kumar; Mustafa, Rujhan; Bakar, Najmin Binti Abu

    2015-12-16

    Numerous studies have shown the importance of physical activity in reducing the morbidity and mortality rates caused by cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, most of these studies emphasise little on the cumulative effect of CVD risk factors. Hence, this study investigates the association between physical exercise and cumulative CVD risk factors among adults in three different age groups. Using a sample of 7276 respondents drawn from community centers, the REDISCOVER team gathered information on physical activity, CVD risk factors (obesity, diabetes, hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, tobacco use) and socioeconomic and demographic variables in Malaysia. Because the study required medical examination, a convenience sampling frame was preferred in which all volunteers were included in the study. Fasting blood samples and anthropometric (height, weight and more) measurements were collected by trained staffs. Socio-demographic and physical activity variables were recorded through questionnaires. A Chi-square test was performed to identify the bivariate association between the covariates (socioeconomic variables, demographic variables and physical activity) and outcome variable. The association between the main exposure, physical activity, and the outcome variable, cumulative CVD risk factors, was assessed using an ordinal logistic regression model, controlling for socioeconomic status and demographic influences in three different age groups, 35-49, 50-64 and 65 and above. The mean age of participants is 51.8 (SD = 9.4). Respondents in the age groups of 35-49 (aORmoderate = 0.12; 95 % CI: 0.02 - 0.53 ) and 65 and above (aORhigh = 0.58; 95 % CI: 0.24, 0.78) showed a statistically significant inverse relationship between physical activity and cumulative CVD risk factors. However, this relationship was not significant among respondents in the 50-64 age group suggesting the possible influence of other variables, such as stress and environment. The

  5. Tsunamis Triggered by Submarine Landslides in the NE Atlantic: Evidences of Mass Failures and Numerical Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Omira, R.; Ramalho, I.; Baptista, M. A.; Miranda, J. M. A.; Batista, L.; Terrinha, P.

    2014-12-01

    Tsunamis caused by submarine mass failures constitute a widely recognized source of natural hazard. However, in the NE Atlantic the tsunami hazard posed by landslides remains poorly studied. In this study, we attempt to contribute to a better understanding of the tsunami hazard of landslides origin. We investigate the tsunami hazard posed by deepwater submarine landslide failures in the Gorringe Bank (GB) area, NE Atlantic. This investigation requires detailed marine geological data and a robust numerical model to simulate both the mass failure flow and the subsequent tsunami. The analysis of both swath-bathymetric data and the multichannel seismic profiles revealed evidences of the presence of at least three large deepwater mass failures in the GB area of possible tsunamigenic potential. It also allows defining the geomorphologic characteristics of the identified submarine landslides, which include the erosional area (dimensions, scarps) and the depositional area (sediments extent, volume). Some depositional volumes reach ~80km3. To simulate the flow of the mudslide failure and the wave induced by the seafloor motion we employ a multi-layers viscous shallow-water (VSW) model. The lower layer represents the slide assumed to be a viscous-incompressible fluid, and characterized by sediments density, and kinematic viscosity. It is bounded by the upper layer consisting of seawater assumed to be inviscid and incompressible. We solve the VSW equations in a finite-difference scheme considering a "two-way" coupling approach. The results are presented in terms of: i) evidences of submarine mass failures in the area of GB; ii) simulations of seafloor motion due to the occurrence slides failures; ii) simulations of tsunami generation induced by the submarine landslide flow; and iii) simulations of tsunami propagation and coastal impact. Results show that, using the VSW model, we are able to reliably reproduce the sediment deposit induced by slide failures. In some cases, the

  6. Testing Capital Asset Pricing Model: Empirical Evidences from Indian Equity Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kapil CHOUDHARY

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available The present study examines the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM for the Indian stock market using monthly stock returns from 278 companies of BSE 500 Index listed on the Bombay stock exchange for the period of January 1996 to December 2009. The findings of this study are not substantiating the theory’s basic result that higher risk (beta is associated with higher levels of return. The model does explain, however, excess returns and thus lends support to the linear structure of the CAPM equation. The theory’s prediction for the intercept is that it should equal zero and the slope should equal the excess returns on the market portfolio. The results of the study lead to negate the above hypotheses and offer evidence against the CAPM. The tests conducted to examine the nonlinearity of the relationship between return and betas bolster the hypothesis that the expected return-beta relationship is linear. Additionally, this study investigates whether the CAPM adequately captures all-important determinants of returns including the residual variance of stocks. The results exhibit that residual risk has no effect on the expected returns of portfolios.

  7. A deterministic model based on evidence for the associations between kinematic variables and sprint kayak performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDonnell, Lisa K; Hume, Patria A; Nolte, Volker

    2013-09-01

    The aim of this narrative review was to propose a deterministic model based on a review of previous research documenting the evidence for the associations between average kayak velocity and kinematic variables in sprint kayaking. Literature was reviewed after searching electronic databases using key words 'kayak,' 'biomechanics,' 'velocity,' 'kinematics,' and 'performance.' Our kinematic deterministic model for sprint kayaking performance shows that the average kayak velocity is determined by kayak stroke displacement and stroke time. Stroke time had the strongest correlation with 200-m race time (r = 0.86, p < 0.001), and stroke rate (inversely proportional to stroke time) was strongly correlated with average horizontal velocity over two consecutive strokes at race pace (r = -0.83, p < 0.05). Increased stroke rate via decreased absolute water phase time and increased relative water phase time were indicative of more elite performance. There was no significant relationship between stroke displacement and velocity; however, a large decrease in stroke displacement may be detrimental to performance. Individual characteristics may be responsible for a paddlers' ability to achieve and sustain a given stroke rate. Coaches should theoretically focus interventions on increasing stroke rate while maintaining stroke displacement; however this hypothesis should be confirmed with prospective studies.

  8. Evidence for a "wattle and daub" model of the cyst wall of entamoeba.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chatterjee, Anirban; Ghosh, Sudip K; Jang, Ken; Bullitt, Esther; Moore, Landon; Robbins, Phillips W; Samuelson, John

    2009-07-01

    The cyst wall of Entamoeba invadens (Ei), a model for the human pathogen Entamoeba histolytica, is composed of fibrils of chitin and three chitin-binding lectins called Jacob, Jessie3, and chitinase. Here we show chitin, which was detected with wheat germ agglutinin, is made in secretory vesicles prior to its deposition on the surface of encysting Ei. Jacob lectins, which have tandemly arrayed chitin-binding domains (CBDs), and chitinase, which has an N-terminal CBD, were each made early during encystation. These results are consistent with their hypothesized roles in cross-linking chitin fibrils (Jacob lectins) and remodeling the cyst wall (chitinase). Jessie3 lectins likely form the mortar or daub of the cyst wall, because 1) Jessie lectins were made late during encystation; 2) the addition to Jessie lectins to the cyst wall correlated with a marked decrease in the permeability of cysts to nucleic acid stains (DAPI) and actin-binding heptapeptide (phalloidin); and 3) recombinant Jessie lectins, expressed as a maltose-binding proteins in the periplasm of Escherichia coli, caused transformed bacteria to agglutinate in suspension and form a hard pellet that did not dissociate after centrifugation. Jessie3 appeared as linear forms and rosettes by negative staining of secreted recombinant proteins. These findings provide evidence for a "wattle and daub" model of the Entamoeba cyst wall, where the wattle or sticks (chitin fibrils likely cross-linked by Jacob lectins) is constructed prior to the addition of the mortar or daub (Jessie3 lectins).

  9. Cumulative Effects of Coastal Habitat Alterations on Fishery Resources: toward Prediction at Regional Scales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephen J. Jordan

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Coastal habitat alterations such as the loss of submersed aquatic vegetation (SAV and hardening of shorelines could have cumulative effects on valuable fishery resources. To investigate this effect, we developed a multiscale modeling framework for blue crab (Callinectes sapidus in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Areal coverage of shoreline land cover and SAV for Mobile Bay, Alabama, were combined with information from small-scale biological studies and long-term, large-scale commercial fishery data to model the potential effects of marginal habitat losses on the blue crab fishery. We applied stochastic variation in annual recruitment to the fishery to estimate probabilities for sustainable harvests under scenarios of habitat loss. The simulations suggested that, accumulated over large areas, relatively small local losses of estuarine marsh edge and SAV habitats could have long-term negative effects on the sustainability of the fishery. Spatially extensive models are required to investigate the cumulative ecological effects of many local environmental changes. The requisite scaling adds uncertainty and reduces precision, but if model parameters are accurate at each scale, accurate predictions of long-term outcomes and probabilities are possible.

  10. Social organization and the evolution of cumulative technology in apes and hominins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pradhan, Gauri R; Tennie, Claudio; van Schaik, Carel P

    2012-07-01

    Culturally supported accumulation (or ratcheting) of technological complexity is widely seen as characterizing hominin technology relative to that of the extant great apes, and thus as representing a threshold in cultural evolution. To explain this divide, we modeled the process of cultural accumulation of technology, which we defined as adding new actions to existing ones to create new functional combinations, based on a model for great ape tool use. The model shows that intraspecific and interspecific variation in the presence of simple and cumulative technology among extant orangutans and chimpanzees is largely due to variation in sociability, and hence opportunities for social learning. The model also suggests that the adoption of extensive allomaternal care (cooperative breeding) in early Pleistocene Homo, which led to an increase in sociability and to teaching, and hence increased efficiency of social learning, was enough to facilitate technological ratcheting. Hence, socioecological changes, rather than advances in cognitive abilities, can account for the cumulative cultural changes seen until the origin of the Acheulean. The consequent increase in the reliance on technology could have served as the pacemaker for increased cognitive abilities. Our results also suggest that a more important watershed in cultural evolution was the rise of donated culture (technology or concepts), in which technology or concepts was transferred to naïve individuals, allowing them to skip many learning steps, and specialization arose, which allowed individuals to learn only a subset of the population's skills. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Cumulative biological impacts framework for solar energy projects in the California Desert

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Frank W.; Kreitler, Jason R.; Soong, Oliver; Stoms, David M.; Dashiell, Stephanie; Hannah, Lee; Wilkinson, Whitney; Dingman, John

    2013-01-01

    This project developed analytical approaches, tools and geospatial data to support conservation planning for renewable energy development in the California deserts. Research focused on geographical analysis to avoid, minimize and mitigate the cumulative biological effects of utility-scale solar energy development. A hierarchical logic model was created to map the compatibility of new solar energy projects with current biological conservation values. The research indicated that the extent of compatible areas is much greater than the estimated land area required to achieve 2040 greenhouse gas reduction goals. Species distribution models were produced for 65 animal and plant species that were of potential conservation significance to the Desert Renewable Energy Conservation Plan process. These models mapped historical and projected future habitat suitability using 270 meter resolution climate grids. The results were integrated into analytical frameworks to locate potential sites for offsetting project impacts and evaluating the cumulative effects of multiple solar energy projects. Examples applying these frameworks in the Western Mojave Desert ecoregion show the potential of these publicly-available tools to assist regional planning efforts. Results also highlight the necessity to explicitly consider projected land use change and climate change when prioritizing areas for conservation and mitigation offsets. Project data, software and model results are all available online.

  12. Regulators as agents: Modelling personality and power as evidence is brokered to support decisions on environmental risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Davies, G.J. [Cranfield University, Centre for Environmental Risks and Futures, School of Applied Sciences, Cranfield MK43 0AL (United Kingdom); Kendall, G. [University of Nottingham, School of Computer Science, Nottingham NG8 1BB (United Kingdom); University of Nottingham Malaysia Campus, Jalan Broga, 43500 Semenyih, Selangor Darul Ehsan (Malaysia); Soane, E. [London School of Economics and Political Science, Department of Management, London WC2A 2AE (United Kingdom); Li, J. [University of Nottingham, School of Computer Science, Nottingham NG8 1BB (United Kingdom); Rocks, S.A.; Jude, S.R. [Cranfield University, Centre for Environmental Risks and Futures, School of Applied Sciences, Cranfield MK43 0AL (United Kingdom); Pollard, S.J.T., E-mail: s.pollard@cranfield.ac.uk [Cranfield University, Centre for Environmental Risks and Futures, School of Applied Sciences, Cranfield MK43 0AL (United Kingdom)

    2014-01-01

    Complex regulatory decisions about risk rely on the brokering of evidence between providers and recipients, and involve personality and power relationships that influence the confidence that recipients may place in the sufficiency of evidence and, therefore, the decision outcome. We explore these relationships in an agent-based model; drawing on concepts from environmental risk science, decision psychology and computer simulation. A two-agent model that accounts for the sufficiency of evidence is applied to decisions about salt intake, animal carcass disposal and radioactive waste. A dynamic version of the model assigned personality traits to agents, to explore their receptivity to evidence. Agents with ‘aggressor’ personality sets were most able to imbue fellow agents with enhanced receptivity (with ‘avoider’ personality sets less so) and clear confidence in the sufficiency of evidence. In a dynamic version of the model, when both recipient and provider were assigned the ‘aggressor’ personality set, this resulted in 10 successful evidence submissions in 71 days, compared with 96 days when both agents were assigned the ‘avoider’ personality set. These insights suggest implications for improving the efficiency and quality of regulatory decision making by understanding the role of personality and power. - Highlights: •The role of personality and power in regulatory decision-making is poorly represented. •We built a rudimentary two-agent model to explore environmental risk decisions. •Our two agent model accounted for decisions about the sufficiency of evidence. •We examined the influence personality and power has on confidence gained. •By giving agents personality we might predict the time taken to reach consensus.

  13. Spectral distortion of the CMB by the cumulative CO emission from galaxies throughout cosmic history

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mashian, Natalie; Loeb, Abraham; Sternberg, Amiel

    2016-05-01

    We show that the cumulative CO emission from galaxies throughout cosmic history distorts the spectrum of the cosmic microwave background at a level that is well above the detection limit of future instruments, such as the Primordial Inflation Explorer. The modelled CO signal has a prominent bump in the frequency interval 100-200 GHz, with a characteristic peak intensity of ˜2 × 10-23 W m-2 Hz-1 sr-1. Most of the CO foreground originates from modest redshifts, z ˜ 2-5, and needs to be efficiently removed for more subtle distortions from the earlier Universe to be detected.

  14. Importance of separated efficiencies between positively and negatively charged particles for cumulant calculations

    CERN Document Server

    Nonaka, Toshihiro; Esumi, ShinIchi; Masui, Hiroshi; Luo, Xiaofeng

    2016-01-01

    We show the importance of separated efficiency corrections between positively and negatively charged particles for cumulant calculations by Monte Carlo toy models and analytical calculations. Our results indicate that S{\\sigma} in published net-proton results from the STAR experiment will be suppressed about 5 to 10% in central collisions, and 10 to 20% in peripheral collisions at the beam energy of \\sqrt s_{NN} = 62.4 and 200 GeV if the separated efficiencies are used to efficiency correction.

  15. Probabilistic cumulative risk assessment of anti-androgenic pesticides in food

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Müller, Anne Kirstine; Bosgra, Sieto; Boon, Polly E.;

    2009-01-01

    reproductive endpoints (ano-genital distance, and weights of the seminal vesicles and the musculus levator ani/bulbocavernosus) in male rat foetuses exposed in utero. The cumulative dietary intake was estimated based on consumption data and residue data from the Netherlands. The IPRA model combines variability...... in both exposure and sensitivity between individuals into a distribution of individual margins of exposures (IMoEs) and IMoEs of 1 or less indicate a possible concern. The assessment did not result in IMoEs ≤ 1. The endpoint ‘weight of seminal vesicles’ resulted in the lowest IMoEs (0.1th percentile: 198...

  16. Cumulants of multiplicity distributions in most-central heavy-ion collisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Hao-jie

    2016-11-01

    I investigate the volume corrections on cumulants of total charge distributions and net proton distributions. The required volume information is generated by an optical Glauber model. I find that the corrected statistical expectations of multiplicity distributions mimic the negative binomial distributions at noncentral collisions, and they tend to approach the Poisson ones at most-central collisions due to the "boundary effects," which suppress the volume corrections. However, net proton distributions and reference multiplicity distributions are sensitive to the external volume fluctuations at most-central collisions, which imply that one has to consider the details of volume distributions in event-by-event multiplicity fluctuation studies.

  17. The ASM-NSF Biology Scholars Program: An Evidence-Based Model for Faculty Development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Amy L; Pribbenow, Christine M

    2016-05-01

    The American Society for Microbiology (ASM) established its ASM-NSF (National Science Foundation) Biology Scholars Program (BSP) to promote undergraduate education reform by 1) supporting biologists to implement evidence-based teaching practices, 2) engaging life science professional societies to facilitate biologists' leadership in scholarly teaching within the discipline, and 3) participating in a teaching community that fosters disciplinary-level science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) reform. Since 2005, the program has utilized year-long residency training to provide a continuum of learning and practice centered on principles from the scholarship of teaching and learning (SoTL) to more than 270 participants ("scholars") from biology and multiple other disciplines. Additionally, the program has recruited 11 life science professional societies to support faculty development in SoTL and discipline-based education research (DBER). To identify the BSP's long-term outcomes and impacts, ASM engaged an external evaluator to conduct a study of the program's 2010-2014 scholars (n = 127) and society partners. The study methods included online surveys, focus groups, participant observation, and analysis of various documents. Study participants indicate that the program achieved its proposed goals relative to scholarship, professional society impact, leadership, community, and faculty professional development. Although participants also identified barriers that hindered elements of their BSP participation, findings suggest that the program was essential to their development as faculty and provides evidence of the BSP as a model for other societies seeking to advance undergraduate science education reform. The BSP is the longest-standing faculty development program sponsored by a collective group of life science societies. This collaboration promotes success across a fragmented system of more than 80 societies representing the life sciences and helps

  18. Framework tool for a rapid cumulative effects assessment: case of a prominent wetland in Myanmar.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pradhan, N; Habib, H; Venkatappa, M; Ebbers, T; Duboz, R; Shipin, O

    2015-06-01

    The wetland of focus, Inle Lake, located in central Myanmar, is well known for its unique biodiversity and culture, as well as for ingenious floating garden agriculture. During the last decades, the lake area has seen extensive degradation in terms of water quality, erosion, deforestation, and biodiversity concomitant with a major shift to unsustainable land use. The study was conducted, with an emphasis on water quality, to analyze environmental impacts (effects) changing the ecosystem and to comprehensively evaluate the environmental state of the ecosystem through an innovative Rapid Cumulative Effects Assessment framework tool. The assessment started with a framework-forming Participatory Rural Appraisal (PRA), which quantified and prioritized impacts over space and time. Critically important impacts were assessed for "intra-inter interactions" using the loop analysis simulation. Water samples were analyzed while geographic information system (GIS) and remote sensing were used to identify water pollution hotspots. It was concluded that out of a plethora of impacts, pollution from municipal sources, sedimentation, and effects exerted by floating gardens had the most detrimental impacts, which cumulatively affected the entire ecosystem. The framework tool was designed in a broad sense with a reference to highly needed assessments of poorly studied wetlands where degradation is evident, but scarcely quantified, and where long-term field studies are fraught with security issues and resource unavailability (post-conflict, poor and remote regions, e.g., Afghanistan, Laos, Sudan, etc.).

  19. Measurement of multi-particle azimuthal correlations with the subevent cumulant method with the ATLAS detector

    CERN Document Server

    Zhou, Mingliang; The ATLAS collaboration

    2017-01-01

    The measurement of four-particle cumulant and anisotropic elliptic flow coefficient for the second harmonic, $c_{2}\\{4\\}$ and $v_{2}\\{4\\}$, are presented using $pp$ data at $\\sqrt{s}=5.02$ and $\\sqrt{s}=13$ TeV, and $p+$Pb data at $\\sqrt{s_{\\text{NN}}}=5.02$ TeV. These measurements aim to assess collective nature of multi-particle production. While collectivity is well established in $p$+Pb and Pb+Pb collisions, because of larger non-flow contributions, its evidence in $pp$ collisions is contested. The values of $c_{2}\\{4\\}$ are calculated using the standard cumulant method and recently proposed two and three subevent methods, which can further suppress the non-flow contributions in small systems. In these collisions systems, the three subevent method gives a negative $c_{2}\\{4\\}$, and thus a well-defined $v_{2}\\{4\\}$. The magnitude of $c_{2}\\{4\\}$ is found to be nearly independent of $\\langle N_{\\text{ch}} \\rangle$ and third harmonic $c_{3}\\{4\\}$ is consistent with 0. $v_{2}\\{4\\}$ is found to be smaller than...

  20. The joint structure of normal and pathological personality: further evidence for a dimensional model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hengartner, Michael P; Ajdacic-Gross, Vladeta; Rodgers, Stephanie; Müller, Mario; Rössler, Wulf

    2014-04-01

    The literature proposes a joint structure of normal and pathological personality with higher-order factors mainly based on the five-factor model of personality (FFM). The purpose of the present study was to examine the joint structure of the FFM and the DSM-IV personality disorders (PDs) and to discuss this structure with regard to higher-order domains commonly reported in the literature. We applied a canonical correlation analysis, a series of principal component analyses with oblique Promax rotation and a bi-factor analysis with Geomin rotation on 511 subjects of the general population of Zurich, Switzerland, using data from the ZInEP Epidemiology Survey. The 5 FFM traits and the 10 DSM-IV PD dimensions shared 77% of total variance. Component extraction tests pointed towards a two- and three-component solution. The two-component solution comprised a first component with strong positive loadings on neuroticism and all 10 PD dimensions and a second component with strong negative loadings on extraversion and openness and positive loadings on schizoid and avoidant PDs. The three-component solution added a third component with strong positive loadings on conscientiousness and agreeableness and a negative loading on antisocial PD. The bi-factor model provided evidence for 1 general personality dysfunction factor related to neuroticism and 5 group factors, although the interpretability of the latter was limited. Normal and pathological personality domains are not isomorphic or superposable, although they share a substantial proportion of variance. The two and three higher-order domains extracted in the present study correspond well to equivalent factor-solutions reported in the literature. Moreover, these superordinate factors can consistently be integrated within a hierarchical structure of alternative four- and five-factor models. The top of the hierarchy presumably constitutes a general personality dysfunction factor which is closely related to neuroticism. © 2014.