WorldWideScience

Sample records for modeling cumulative evidence

  1. Integrating Etiological Models of Social Anxiety and Depression in Youth: Evidence for a Cumulative Interpersonal Risk Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Epkins, Catherine C.; Heckler, David R.

    2011-01-01

    Models of social anxiety and depression in youth have been developed separately, and they contain similar etiological influences. Given the high comorbidity of social anxiety and depression, we examine whether the posited etiological constructs are a correlate of, or a risk factor for, social anxiety and/or depression at the symptom level and the…

  2. Predicting Cumulative Incidence Probability: Marginal and Cause-Specific Modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Scheike, Thomas H.; Zhang, Mei-Jie

    2005-01-01

    cumulative incidence probability; cause-specific hazards; subdistribution hazard; binomial modelling......cumulative incidence probability; cause-specific hazards; subdistribution hazard; binomial modelling...

  3. Conceptual models for cumulative risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linder, Stephen H; Sexton, Ken

    2011-12-01

    In the absence of scientific consensus on an appropriate theoretical framework, cumulative risk assessment and related research have relied on speculative conceptual models. We argue for the importance of theoretical backing for such models and discuss 3 relevant theoretical frameworks, each supporting a distinctive "family" of models. Social determinant models postulate that unequal health outcomes are caused by structural inequalities; health disparity models envision social and contextual factors acting through individual behaviors and biological mechanisms; and multiple stressor models incorporate environmental agents, emphasizing the intermediary role of these and other stressors. The conclusion is that more careful reliance on established frameworks will lead directly to improvements in characterizing cumulative risk burdens and accounting for disproportionate adverse health effects.

  4. Evolution model with a cumulative feedback coupling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trimper, Steffen; Zabrocki, Knud; Schulz, Michael

    2002-05-01

    The paper is concerned with a toy model that generalizes the standard Lotka-Volterra equation for a certain population by introducing a competition between instantaneous and accumulative, history-dependent nonlinear feedback the origin of which could be a contribution from any kind of mismanagement in the past. The results depend on the sign of that additional cumulative loss or gain term of strength λ. In case of a positive coupling the system offers a maximum gain achieved after a finite time but the population will die out in the long time limit. In this case the instantaneous loss term of strength u is irrelevant and the model exhibits an exact solution. In the opposite case λ<0 the time evolution of the system is terminated in a crash after ts provided u=0. This singularity after a finite time can be avoided if u≠0. The approach may well be of relevance for the qualitative understanding of more realistic descriptions.

  5. Cumulative particle production in the quark recombination model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gavrilov, V.B.; Leksin, G.A.

    1987-01-01

    Production of cumulative particles in hadron-nuclear inteactions at high energies is considered within the framework of recombination quark model. Predictions for inclusive cross sections of production of cumulative particles and different resonances containing quarks in s state are made

  6. Evolutionary neural network modeling for software cumulative failure time prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tian Liang; Noore, Afzel

    2005-01-01

    An evolutionary neural network modeling approach for software cumulative failure time prediction based on multiple-delayed-input single-output architecture is proposed. Genetic algorithm is used to globally optimize the number of the delayed input neurons and the number of neurons in the hidden layer of the neural network architecture. Modification of Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm with Bayesian regularization is used to improve the ability to predict software cumulative failure time. The performance of our proposed approach has been compared using real-time control and flight dynamic application data sets. Numerical results show that both the goodness-of-fit and the next-step-predictability of our proposed approach have greater accuracy in predicting software cumulative failure time compared to existing approaches

  7. Analysis of sensory ratings data with cumulative link models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Rune Haubo Bojesen; Brockhoff, Per B.

    2013-01-01

    Examples of categorical rating scales include discrete preference, liking and hedonic rating scales. Data obtained on these scales are often analyzed with normal linear regression methods or with omnibus Pearson chi2 tests. In this paper we propose to use cumulative link models that allow for reg...

  8. Further Evidence for Geochemical Diversity, and Possible Bimodality, Among Cumulate Eucrites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warren, P. H.; Kallemeyn, G. W.

    1992-07-01

    We have used INAA, RNAA, and fused-bead analysis to determine the bulk compositions of numerous Antarctic eucrites (and also the LEW88516 SNC meteorite). Only a few of the most unusual eucrites can be discussed in the limited space here. Takeda et al. (1988) noted that Y791195 is a slowly cooled eucrite, with an equant, medium-grained texture, and pyroxene exsolution lamellae up to 10 micrometers across. In Y791195,81-3, we find lamellae up to 14 micrometers across. In this respect, Y791195 resembles RKPA80224, in which exsolution lamellae up to 12 micrometers across. We have previously discussed the evidence that RKPA80224 is a mildly accumulative rock that formed from an unusually low-mg parent melt. Our second analysis of RKPA80224 only partly confirms the unusually low incompatible trace element (ITE) content, but the Ce anomaly is consistently small (Ce/La = 0.90-1.02 x CI), and based on a weighted mean composition the implied parent melt is still unlike any noncumulate eucrite (see Fig. 1, which shows results from mass balance calculations modeling the sample as a mixture of cumulus px and plag, plus trapped melt). A parent melt similar to an extreme low-mg, variant of the "Nuevo Laredo Trend" would plausibly account for RKPA80224. The spectrum of possible parents for Y791195 is similar, even though its "true" Sm content is slightly obscured by weathering (Ce/La = 1.4 x CI). The [Sm] used in the figure is scaled to the highest CI-normalized REE concentration. Data of Mittlefehldt and Lindstrom (1991) indicate that except for exterior samples "showing extreme rustiness," Sm even in weathered eucrites is generally not altered beyond a few tens of pct. relative (sample size seems to account for more of the variation in [Sm] among interior, non-rusty samples). Even assuming a Sm content twice that assumed in the figure, the parent melt still must be well to the low-MgO/FeO, low-Sm side of all known eucrites. The LEW87002 eucrite is brecciated, but probably

  9. Preference, resistance to change, and the cumulative decision model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grace, Randolph C

    2018-01-01

    According to behavioral momentum theory (Nevin & Grace, 2000a), preference in concurrent chains and resistance to change in multiple schedules are independent measures of a common construct representing reinforcement history. Here I review the original studies on preference and resistance to change in which reinforcement variables were manipulated parametrically, conducted by Nevin, Grace and colleagues between 1997 and 2002, as well as more recent research. The cumulative decision model proposed by Grace and colleagues for concurrent chains is shown to provide a good account of both preference and resistance to change, and is able to predict the increased sensitivity to reinforcer rate and magnitude observed with constant-duration components. Residuals from fits of the cumulative decision model to preference and resistance to change data were positively correlated, supporting the prediction of behavioral momentum theory. Although some questions remain, the learning process assumed by the cumulative decision model, in which outcomes are compared against a criterion that represents the average outcome value in the current context, may provide a plausible model for the acquisition of differential resistance to change. © 2018 Society for the Experimental Analysis of Behavior.

  10. The proportional odds cumulative incidence model for competing risks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Eriksson, Frank; Li, Jianing; Scheike, Thomas

    2015-01-01

    We suggest an estimator for the proportional odds cumulative incidence model for competing risks data. The key advantage of this model is that the regression parameters have the simple and useful odds ratio interpretation. The model has been considered by many authors, but it is rarely used...... in practice due to the lack of reliable estimation procedures. We suggest such procedures and show that their performance improve considerably on existing methods. We also suggest a goodness-of-fit test for the proportional odds assumption. We derive the large sample properties and provide estimators...

  11. Cumulative growth of minor hysteresis loops in the Kolmogorov model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meilikhov, E. Z.; Farzetdinova, R. M.

    2013-01-01

    The phenomenon of nonrepeatability of successive remagnetization cycles in Co/M (M = Pt, Pd, Au) multilayer film structures is explained in the framework of the Kolmogorov crystallization model. It is shown that this model of phase transitions can be adapted so as to adequately describe the process of magnetic relaxation in the indicated systems with “memory.” For this purpose, it is necessary to introduce some additional elements into the model, in particular, (i) to take into account the fact that every cycle starts from a state “inherited” from the preceding cycle and (ii) to assume that the rate of growth of a new magnetic phase depends on the cycle number. This modified model provides a quite satisfactory qualitative and quantitative description of all features of successive magnetic relaxation cycles in the system under consideration, including the surprising phenomenon of cumulative growth of minor hysteresis loops.

  12. Modelling the evolution and diversity of cumulative culture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Enquist, Magnus; Ghirlanda, Stefano; Eriksson, Kimmo

    2011-01-01

    Previous work on mathematical models of cultural evolution has mainly focused on the diffusion of simple cultural elements. However, a characteristic feature of human cultural evolution is the seemingly limitless appearance of new and increasingly complex cultural elements. Here, we develop a general modelling framework to study such cumulative processes, in which we assume that the appearance and disappearance of cultural elements are stochastic events that depend on the current state of culture. Five scenarios are explored: evolution of independent cultural elements, stepwise modification of elements, differentiation or combination of elements and systems of cultural elements. As one application of our framework, we study the evolution of cultural diversity (in time as well as between groups). PMID:21199845

  13. Model-checking techniques based on cumulative residuals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, D Y; Wei, L J; Ying, Z

    2002-03-01

    Residuals have long been used for graphical and numerical examinations of the adequacy of regression models. Conventional residual analysis based on the plots of raw residuals or their smoothed curves is highly subjective, whereas most numerical goodness-of-fit tests provide little information about the nature of model misspecification. In this paper, we develop objective and informative model-checking techniques by taking the cumulative sums of residuals over certain coordinates (e.g., covariates or fitted values) or by considering some related aggregates of residuals, such as moving sums and moving averages. For a variety of statistical models and data structures, including generalized linear models with independent or dependent observations, the distributions of these stochastic processes tinder the assumed model can be approximated by the distributions of certain zero-mean Gaussian processes whose realizations can be easily generated by computer simulation. Each observed process can then be compared, both graphically and numerically, with a number of realizations from the Gaussian process. Such comparisons enable one to assess objectively whether a trend seen in a residual plot reflects model misspecification or natural variation. The proposed techniques are particularly useful in checking the functional form of a covariate and the link function. Illustrations with several medical studies are provided.

  14. Expansion formulae for characteristics of cumulative cost in finite horizon production models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ayhan, H.; Schlegel, S.

    2001-01-01

    We consider the expected value and the tail probability of cumulative shortage and holding cost (i.e. the probability that cumulative cost is more than a certain value) in finite horizon production models. An exact expression is provided for the expected value of the cumulative cost for general

  15. Toward computational cumulative biology by combining models of biological datasets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faisal, Ali; Peltonen, Jaakko; Georgii, Elisabeth; Rung, Johan; Kaski, Samuel

    2014-01-01

    A main challenge of data-driven sciences is how to make maximal use of the progressively expanding databases of experimental datasets in order to keep research cumulative. We introduce the idea of a modeling-based dataset retrieval engine designed for relating a researcher's experimental dataset to earlier work in the field. The search is (i) data-driven to enable new findings, going beyond the state of the art of keyword searches in annotations, (ii) modeling-driven, to include both biological knowledge and insights learned from data, and (iii) scalable, as it is accomplished without building one unified grand model of all data. Assuming each dataset has been modeled beforehand, by the researchers or automatically by database managers, we apply a rapidly computable and optimizable combination model to decompose a new dataset into contributions from earlier relevant models. By using the data-driven decomposition, we identify a network of interrelated datasets from a large annotated human gene expression atlas. While tissue type and disease were major driving forces for determining relevant datasets, the found relationships were richer, and the model-based search was more accurate than the keyword search; moreover, it recovered biologically meaningful relationships that are not straightforwardly visible from annotations-for instance, between cells in different developmental stages such as thymocytes and T-cells. Data-driven links and citations matched to a large extent; the data-driven links even uncovered corrections to the publication data, as two of the most linked datasets were not highly cited and turned out to have wrong publication entries in the database.

  16. Single-Word Predictions of Upcoming Language During Comprehension: Evidence from the Cumulative Semantic Interference Task

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kleinman, Daniel; Runnqvist, Elin; Ferreira, Victor S.

    2015-01-01

    Comprehenders predict upcoming speech and text on the basis of linguistic input. How many predictions do comprehenders make for an upcoming word? If a listener strongly expects to hear the word “sock”, is the word “shirt” partially expected as well, is it actively inhibited, or is it ignored? The present research addressed these questions by measuring the “downstream” effects of prediction on the processing of subsequently presented stimuli using the cumulative semantic interference paradigm. In three experiments, subjects named pictures (sock) that were presented either in isolation or after strongly constraining sentence frames (“After doing his laundry, Mark always seemed to be missing one…”). Naming sock slowed the subsequent naming of the picture shirt – the standard cumulative semantic interference effect. However, although picture naming was much faster after sentence frames, the interference effect was not modulated by the context (bare vs. sentence) in which either picture was presented. According to the only model of cumulative semantic interference that can account for such a pattern of data, this indicates that comprehenders pre-activated and maintained the pre-activation of best sentence completions (sock) but did not maintain the pre-activation of less likely completions (shirt). Thus, comprehenders predicted only the most probable completion for each sentence. PMID:25917550

  17. Error Analysis on the Estimation of Cumulative Infiltration in Soil Using Green and AMPT Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhamad Askari

    2006-08-01

    Full Text Available Green and Ampt infiltration model is still useful for the infiltration process because of a clear physical basis of the model and of the existence of the model parameter values for a wide range of soil. The objective of thise study was to analyze error on the esimation of cumulative infiltration in sooil using Green and Ampt model and to design laboratory experiment in measuring cumulative infiltration. Parameter of the model was determined based on soil physical properties from laboratory experiment. Newton –Raphson method was esed to estimate wetting front during calculation using visual Basic for Application (VBA in MS Word. The result showed that  contributed the highest error in estimation of cumulative infiltration and was followed by K, H0, H1, and t respectively. It also showed that the calculated cumulative infiltration is always lower than both measured cumulative infiltration and volumetric soil water content.

  18. Cumulative error models for the tank calibration problem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goldman, A.; Anderson, L.G.; Weber, J.

    1983-01-01

    The purpose of a tank calibration equation is to obtain an estimate of the liquid volume that corresponds to a liquid level measurement. Calibration experimental errors occur in both liquid level and liquid volume measurements. If one of the errors is relatively small, the calibration equation can be determined from wellknown regression and calibration methods. If both variables are assumed to be in error, then for linear cases a prototype model should be considered. Many investigators are not familiar with this model or do not have computing facilities capable of obtaining numerical solutions. This paper discusses and compares three linear models that approximate the prototype model and have the advantage of much simpler computations. Comparisons among the four models and recommendations of suitability are made from simulations and from analyses of six sets of experimental data

  19. Evaluation of the cumulative evidence for freedom from BSE in birth cohorts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Böhning, Dankmar; Greiner, Matthias

    2006-01-01

    Substantial resources are used for surveillance of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) despite an extremely low detection rate, especially in healthy slaughtered cattle. We have developed a method based on the geometric waiting time distribution to establish and update the statistical evidence...... for BSE-freedom for defined birth cohorts using continued surveillance data. The results suggest that currently (data included till September 2004) a birth cohort of Danish cattle born after March 1999 is free from BSE with probability (power) of 0.8746 or 0.8509, depending on the choice of a model...

  20. Cumulative t-link threshold models for the genetic analysis of calving ease scores

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tempelman Robert J

    2003-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract In this study, a hierarchical threshold mixed model based on a cumulative t-link specification for the analysis of ordinal data or more, specifically, calving ease scores, was developed. The validation of this model and the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC algorithm was carried out on simulated data from normally and t4 (i.e. a t-distribution with four degrees of freedom distributed populations using the deviance information criterion (DIC and a pseudo Bayes factor (PBF measure to validate recently proposed model choice criteria. The simulation study indicated that although inference on the degrees of freedom parameter is possible, MCMC mixing was problematic. Nevertheless, the DIC and PBF were validated to be satisfactory measures of model fit to data. A sire and maternal grandsire cumulative t-link model was applied to a calving ease dataset from 8847 Italian Piemontese first parity dams. The cumulative t-link model was shown to lead to posterior means of direct and maternal heritabilities (0.40 ± 0.06, 0.11 ± 0.04 and a direct maternal genetic correlation (-0.58 ± 0.15 that were not different from the corresponding posterior means of the heritabilities (0.42 ± 0.07, 0.14 ± 0.04 and the genetic correlation (-0.55 ± 0.14 inferred under the conventional cumulative probit link threshold model. Furthermore, the correlation (> 0.99 between posterior means of sire progeny merit from the two models suggested no meaningful rerankings. Nevertheless, the cumulative t-link model was decisively chosen as the better fitting model for this calving ease data using DIC and PBF.

  1. Study of higher order cumulant expansion of U(1) lattice gauge model at finite temperature

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zheng Xite; Lei Chunhong; Li Yuliang; Chen Hong

    1993-01-01

    The order parameter, Polyakov line , of the U(1) gauge model on N σ 3 x N τ (N τ = 1) lattice by using the cumulant expansion is calculated to the 5-th order. The emphasis is put on the behaviour of the cumulant expansion in the intermediate coupling region. The necessity of higher order expansion is clarified from the connection between the cumulant expansion and the correlation length. The variational parameter in the n-th order calculation is determined by the requirement that corrections of the n-th order expansion to the zeroth order expansion finish. The agreement with the Monte Carlo simulation is obtained not only in the weak and strong coupling regions, but also in the intermediate coupling region except in the very vicinity of the phase transition point

  2. Cumulative Risk Disparities in Children's Neurocognitive Functioning: A Developmental Cascade Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wade, Mark; Browne, Dillon T.; Plamondon, Andre; Daniel, Ella; Jenkins, Jennifer M.

    2016-01-01

    The current longitudinal study examined the role of cumulative social risk on children's theory of mind (ToM) and executive functioning (EF) across early development. Further, we also tested a cascade model of development in which children's social cognition at 18 months was hypothesized to predict ToM and EF at age 4.5 through intermediary…

  3. Cumulative Risk and Impact Modeling on Environmental Chemical and Social Stressors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Hongtai; Wang, Aolin; Morello-Frosch, Rachel; Lam, Juleen; Sirota, Marina; Padula, Amy; Woodruff, Tracey J

    2018-03-01

    The goal of this review is to identify cumulative modeling methods used to evaluate combined effects of exposures to environmental chemicals and social stressors. The specific review question is: What are the existing quantitative methods used to examine the cumulative impacts of exposures to environmental chemical and social stressors on health? There has been an increase in literature that evaluates combined effects of exposures to environmental chemicals and social stressors on health using regression models; very few studies applied other data mining and machine learning techniques to this problem. The majority of studies we identified used regression models to evaluate combined effects of multiple environmental and social stressors. With proper study design and appropriate modeling assumptions, additional data mining methods may be useful to examine combined effects of environmental and social stressors.

  4. Modeling the Cumulative Effects of Social Exposures on Health: Moving beyond Disease-Specific Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Heather L. White

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available The traditional explanatory models used in epidemiology are “disease specific”, identifying risk factors for specific health conditions. Yet social exposures lead to a generalized, cumulative health impact which may not be specific to one illness. Disease-specific models may therefore misestimate social factors’ effects on health. Using data from the Canadian Community Health Survey and Canada 2001 Census we construct and compare “disease-specific” and “generalized health impact” (GHI models to gauge the negative health effects of one social exposure: socioeconomic position (SEP. We use logistic and multinomial multilevel modeling with neighbourhood-level material deprivation, individual-level education and household income to compare and contrast the two approaches. In disease-specific models, the social determinants under study were each associated with the health conditions of interest. However, larger effect sizes were apparent when outcomes were modeled as compound health problems (0, 1, 2, or 3+ conditions using the GHI approach. To more accurately estimate social exposures’ impacts on population health, researchers should consider a GHI framework.

  5. The MCRA model for probabilistic single-compound and cumulative risk assessment of pesticides.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Voet, Hilko; de Boer, Waldo J; Kruisselbrink, Johannes W; Goedhart, Paul W; van der Heijden, Gerie W A M; Kennedy, Marc C; Boon, Polly E; van Klaveren, Jacob D

    2015-05-01

    Pesticide risk assessment is hampered by worst-case assumptions leading to overly pessimistic assessments. On the other hand, cumulative health effects of similar pesticides are often not taken into account. This paper describes models and a web-based software system developed in the European research project ACROPOLIS. The models are appropriate for both acute and chronic exposure assessments of single compounds and of multiple compounds in cumulative assessment groups. The software system MCRA (Monte Carlo Risk Assessment) is available for stakeholders in pesticide risk assessment at mcra.rivm.nl. We describe the MCRA implementation of the methods as advised in the 2012 EFSA Guidance on probabilistic modelling, as well as more refined methods developed in the ACROPOLIS project. The emphasis is on cumulative assessments. Two approaches, sample-based and compound-based, are contrasted. It is shown that additional data on agricultural use of pesticides may give more realistic risk assessments. Examples are given of model and software validation of acute and chronic assessments, using both simulated data and comparisons against the previous release of MCRA and against the standard software DEEM-FCID used by the Environmental Protection Agency in the USA. It is shown that the EFSA Guidance pessimistic model may not always give an appropriate modelling of exposure. Crown Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Checking Fine and Gray subdistribution hazards model with cumulative sums of residuals

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Li, Jianing; Scheike, Thomas; Zhang, Mei Jie

    2015-01-01

    Recently, Fine and Gray (J Am Stat Assoc 94:496–509, 1999) proposed a semi-parametric proportional regression model for the subdistribution hazard function which has been used extensively for analyzing competing risks data. However, failure of model adequacy could lead to severe bias in parameter...... estimation, and only a limited contribution has been made to check the model assumptions. In this paper, we present a class of analytical methods and graphical approaches for checking the assumptions of Fine and Gray’s model. The proposed goodness-of-fit test procedures are based on the cumulative sums...

  7. An analytical model for cumulative infiltration into a dual-permeability media

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peyrard, Xavier; Lassabatere, Laurent; Angulo-Jaramillo, Rafael; Simunek, Jiri

    2010-05-01

    Modeling of water infiltration into the vadose zone is important for better understanding of movement of water-transported contaminants. There is a great need to take into account the soil heterogeneity and, in particular, the presence of macropores or cracks that could generate preferential flow. Several mathematical models have been proposed to describe unsaturated flow through heterogeneous soils. The dual-permeability model assumes that flow is governed by Richards equation in both porous regions (matrix and fractures). Water can be exchanged between the two regions following a first-order rate law. A previous study showed that the influence of the hydraulic conductivity of the matrix/macropore interface had a little influence on cumulative infiltration at the soil surface. As a result, one could consider the surface infiltration for a specific case of no water exchange between the fracture and matrix regions (a case of zero interfacial hydraulic conductivity). In such a case, water infiltration can be considered to be the sum of the cumulative infiltrations into the matrix and the fractures. On the basis of analytical models for each sub domain (matrix and fractures), an analytical model is proposed for the entire dual-porosity system. A sensitivity analysis is performed to characterize the influence of several factors, such as the saturated hydraulic conductivity ratio, the water pressure scale parameter ratio, and the saturated volumetric water content scale ratio, on the total cumulative infiltration. Such an analysis greatly helps in quantifying the impact of macroporosity and fractures on water infiltration, which can be of great interest for hydrological models.

  8. Predicting the cumulative risk of death during hospitalization by modeling weekend, weekday and diurnal mortality risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coiera, Enrico; Wang, Ying; Magrabi, Farah; Concha, Oscar Perez; Gallego, Blanca; Runciman, William

    2014-05-21

    Current prognostic models factor in patient and disease specific variables but do not consider cumulative risks of hospitalization over time. We developed risk models of the likelihood of death associated with cumulative exposure to hospitalization, based on time-varying risks of hospitalization over any given day, as well as day of the week. Model performance was evaluated alone, and in combination with simple disease-specific models. Patients admitted between 2000 and 2006 from 501 public and private hospitals in NSW, Australia were used for training and 2007 data for evaluation. The impact of hospital care delivered over different days of the week and or times of the day was modeled by separating hospitalization risk into 21 separate time periods (morning, day, night across the days of the week). Three models were developed to predict death up to 7-days post-discharge: 1/a simple background risk model using age, gender; 2/a time-varying risk model for exposure to hospitalization (admission time, days in hospital); 3/disease specific models (Charlson co-morbidity index, DRG). Combining these three generated a full model. Models were evaluated by accuracy, AUC, Akaike and Bayesian information criteria. There was a clear diurnal rhythm to hospital mortality in the data set, peaking in the evening, as well as the well-known 'weekend-effect' where mortality peaks with weekend admissions. Individual models had modest performance on the test data set (AUC 0.71, 0.79 and 0.79 respectively). The combined model which included time-varying risk however yielded an average AUC of 0.92. This model performed best for stays up to 7-days (93% of admissions), peaking at days 3 to 5 (AUC 0.94). Risks of hospitalization vary not just with the day of the week but also time of the day, and can be used to make predictions about the cumulative risk of death associated with an individual's hospitalization. Combining disease specific models with such time varying- estimates appears to

  9. An Evidence-Based Evaluation of the Cumulative Effects of Tidal Freshwater and Estuarine Ecosystem Restoration on Endangered Juvenile Salmon in the Columbia River: Final Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Diefenderfer, Heida L. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Johnson, Gary E. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Thom, Ronald M. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Borde, Amy B. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Woodley, Christa M. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Weitkamp, Laurie A. [Marine Sciences lab., Sequim, WA (United States); Buenau, Kate E. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Kropp, Roy K. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2013-12-01

    The listing of 13 salmon and steelhead stocks in the Columbia River basin (hereafter collectively referred to as “salmon”) under the Endangered Species Act of 1973, as amended, has stimulated tidal wetland restoration in the lower 235 kilometers of the Columbia River and estuary for juvenile salmon habitat functions. The purpose of the research reported herein was to evaluate the effect on listed salmon of the restoration effort currently being conducted under the auspices of the federal Columbia Estuary Ecosystem Restoration Program (CEERP). Linking changes in the quality and landscape pattern of tidal wetlands in the lower Columbia River and estuary (LCRE) to salmon recovery is a complex problem because of the characteristics of the ecosystem, the salmon, the restoration actions, and available sampling technologies. Therefore, we designed an evidence-based approach to develop, synthesize, and evaluate information to determine early-stage (~10 years) outcomes of the CEERP. We developed an ecosystem conceptual model and from that, a primary hypothesis that habitat restoration activities in the LCRE have a cumulative beneficial effect on juvenile salmon. There are two necessary conditions of the hypothesis: • habitat-based indicators of ecosystem controlling factors, processes, and structures show positive effects from restoration actions, and • fish-based indicators of ecosystem processes and functions show positive effects from restoration actions and habitats undergoing restoration. Our evidence-based approach to evaluate the primary hypothesis incorporated seven lines of evidence, most of which are drawn from the LCRE. The lines of evidence are spatial and temporal synergies, cumulative net ecosystem improvement, estuary-wide meta-analysis, offsite benefits to juvenile salmon, landscape condition evaluation, and evidence-based scoring of global literature. The general methods we used to develop information for the lines of evidence included field

  10. [Assessment on the ecological suitability in Zhuhai City, Guangdong, China, based on minimum cumulative resistance model].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jian-fei; Li, Lin; Guo, Luo; Du, Shi-hong

    2016-01-01

    Urban landscape has the characteristics of spatial heterogeneity. Because the expansion process of urban constructive or ecological land has different resistance values, the land unit stimulates and promotes the expansion of ecological land with different intensity. To compare the effect of promoting and hindering functions in the same land unit, we firstly compared the minimum cumulative resistance value of promoting and hindering functions, and then looked for the balance of two landscape processes under the same standard. According to the ecology principle of minimum limit factor, taking the minimum cumulative resistance analysis method under two expansion processes as the evaluation method of urban land ecological suitability, this research took Zhuhai City as the study area to estimate urban ecological suitability by relative evaluation method with remote sensing image, field survey, and statistics data. With the support of ArcGIS, five types of indicators on landscape types, ecological value, soil erosion sensitivity, sensitivity of geological disasters, and ecological function were selected as input parameters in the minimum cumulative resistance model to compute urban ecological suitability. The results showed that the ecological suitability of the whole Zhuhai City was divided into five levels: constructive expansion prohibited zone (10.1%), constructive expansion restricted zone (32.9%), key construction zone (36.3%), priority development zone (2.3%), and basic cropland (18.4%). Ecological suitability of the central area of Zhuhai City was divided into four levels: constructive expansion prohibited zone (11.6%), constructive expansion restricted zone (25.6%), key construction zone (52.4%), priority development zone (10.4%). Finally, we put forward the sustainable development framework of Zhuhai City according to the research conclusion. On one hand, the government should strictly control the development of the urban center area. On the other hand, the

  11. From cumulative cultural transmission to evidence-based medicine: evolution of medicinal plant knowledge in Southern Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leonti, Marco; Staub, Peter O.; Cabras, Stefano; Castellanos, Maria Eugenia; Casu, Laura

    2015-01-01

    In Mediterranean cultures written records of medicinal plant use have a long tradition. This written record contributed to building a consensus about what was perceived to be an efficacious pharmacopeia. Passed down through millennia, these scripts have transmitted knowledge about plant uses, with high fidelity, to scholars and laypersons alike. Herbal medicine's importance and the long-standing written record call for a better understanding of the mechanisms influencing the transmission of contemporary medicinal plant knowledge. Here we contextualize herbal medicine within evolutionary medicine and cultural evolution. Cumulative knowledge transmission is approached by estimating the causal effect of two seminal scripts about materia medica written by Dioscorides and Galen, two classical Greco-Roman physicians, on today's medicinal plant use in the Southern Italian regions of Campania, Sardinia, and Sicily. Plant-use combinations are treated as transmissible cultural traits (or “memes”), which in analogy to the biological evolution of genetic traits, are subjected to mutation and selection. Our results suggest that until today ancient scripts have exerted a strong influence on the use of herbal medicine. We conclude that the repeated empirical testing and scientific study of health care claims is guiding and shaping the selection of efficacious treatments and evidence-based herbal medicine. PMID:26483686

  12. From cumulative cultural transmission to evidence-based medicine: evolution of medicinal plant knowledge in Southern Italy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leonti, Marco; Staub, Peter O; Cabras, Stefano; Castellanos, Maria Eugenia; Casu, Laura

    2015-01-01

    In Mediterranean cultures written records of medicinal plant use have a long tradition. This written record contributed to building a consensus about what was perceived to be an efficacious pharmacopeia. Passed down through millennia, these scripts have transmitted knowledge about plant uses, with high fidelity, to scholars and laypersons alike. Herbal medicine's importance and the long-standing written record call for a better understanding of the mechanisms influencing the transmission of contemporary medicinal plant knowledge. Here we contextualize herbal medicine within evolutionary medicine and cultural evolution. Cumulative knowledge transmission is approached by estimating the causal effect of two seminal scripts about materia medica written by Dioscorides and Galen, two classical Greco-Roman physicians, on today's medicinal plant use in the Southern Italian regions of Campania, Sardinia, and Sicily. Plant-use combinations are treated as transmissible cultural traits (or "memes"), which in analogy to the biological evolution of genetic traits, are subjected to mutation and selection. Our results suggest that until today ancient scripts have exerted a strong influence on the use of herbal medicine. We conclude that the repeated empirical testing and scientific study of health care claims is guiding and shaping the selection of efficacious treatments and evidence-based herbal medicine.

  13. From cumulative cultural transmission to evidence-based medicine: Evolution of medicinal plant knowledge in Southern Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marco eLeonti

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available In Mediterranean cultures written records of medicinal plant use have a long tradition. This written record contributed to building a consensus about what was perceived to be an efficacious pharmacopoeia. Passed down through millennia, these scripts have transmitted knowledge about plant uses, with high fidelity, to scholars and laypersons alike. Herbal medicine’s importance and the long-standing written record call for a better understanding of the mechanisms influencing the transmission of contemporary medicinal plant knowledge. Here we contextualize herbal medicine within evolutionary medicine and cultural evolution. Cumulative knowledge transmission is approached by estimating the causal effect of two seminal scripts about materia medica written by Dioscorides and Galen, two classical Greco-Roman physicians, on today’s medicinal plant use in the Southern Italian regions of Campania, Sardinia and Sicily. Plant-use combinations are treated as transmissible cultural traits (or memes, which in analogy to the biological evolution of genetic traits, are subjected to mutation and selection. Our results suggest that until today ancient scripts have exerted a strong influence on the use of herbal medicine. We conclude that the repeated empirical testing and scientific study of health care claims is guiding and shaping the selection of efficacious treatments and evidence-based herbal medicine.

  14. Cumulative Training Dose's Effects on Interrelationships Between Common Training-Load Models During Basketball Activity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scanlan, Aaron T; Fox, Jordan L; Borges, Nattai R; Dascombe, Ben J; Dalbo, Vincent J

    2017-02-01

    The influence of various factors on training-load (TL) responses in basketball has received limited attention. This study aimed to examine the temporal changes and influence of cumulative training dose on TL responses and interrelationships during basketball activity. Ten state-level Australian male junior basketball players completed 4 × 10-min standardized bouts of simulated basketball activity using a circuit-based protocol. Internal TL was quantified using the session rating of perceived exertion (sRPE), summated heart-rate zones (SHRZ), Banister training impulse (TRIMP), and Lucia TRIMP models. External TL was assessed via measurement of mean sprint and circuit speeds. Temporal TL comparisons were performed between 10-min bouts, while Pearson correlation analyses were conducted across cumulative training doses (0-10, 0-20, 0-30, and 0-40 min). sRPE TL increased (P basketball activity. sRPE TL was only significantly related to Lucia TRIMP (r = .66-.69; P basketball training doses lasting beyond 20 min. Thus, the interchangeability of commonly used internal and external TL approaches appears dose-dependent during basketball activity, with various psychophysiological mediators likely underpinning temporal changes.

  15. Spatial dispersion modeling of 90Sr by point cumulative semivariogram at Keban Dam Lake, Turkey

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kuelahci, Fatih; Sen, Zekai

    2007-01-01

    Spatial analysis of 90 Sr artificial radionuclide in consequence of global fallout and Chernobyl nuclear accident has been carried out by using the point cumulative semivariogram (PCSV) technique based on 40 surface water station measurements in Keban Dam Lake during March, April, and May 2006. This technique is a convenient tool in obtaining the regional variability features around each sampling point, which yields the structural effects also in the vicinity of the same point. It presents the regional effect of all the other sites within the study area on the site concerned. In order to see to change of 90 Sr, the five models are constituted. Additionally, it provides a measure of cumulative similarity of the regional variable, 90 Sr, around any measurement site and hence it is possible to draw regional similarity maps at any desired distance around each station. In this paper, such similarity maps are also drawn for a set of distances. 90 Sr activities in lake that distance approximately 4.5 km from stations show the maximum similarity

  16. Expert opinion on laparoscopic surgery for colorectal cancer parallels evidence from a cumulative meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guillaume Martel

    Full Text Available This study sought to synthesize survival outcomes from trials of laparoscopic and open colorectal cancer surgery, and to determine whether expert acceptance of this technology in the literature has parallel cumulative survival evidence.A systematic review of randomized trials was conducted. The primary outcome was survival, and meta-analysis of time-to-event data was conducted. Expert opinion in the literature (published reviews, guidelines, and textbook chapters on the acceptability of laparoscopic colorectal cancer was graded using a 7-point scale. Pooled survival data were correlated in time with accumulating expert opinion scores.A total of 5,800 citations were screened. Of these, 39 publications pertaining to 23 individual trials were retained. As well, 414 reviews were included (28 guidelines, 30 textbook chapters, 20 systematic reviews, 336 narrative reviews. In total, 5,782 patients were randomized to laparoscopic (n = 3,031 and open (n = 2,751 colorectal surgery. Survival data were presented in 16 publications. Laparoscopic surgery was not inferior to open surgery in terms of overall survival (HR = 0.94, 95% CI 0.80, 1.09. Expert opinion in the literature pertaining to the oncologic acceptability of laparoscopic surgery for colon cancer correlated most closely with the publication of large RCTs in 2002-2004. Although increasingly accepted since 2006, laparoscopic surgery for rectal cancer remained controversial.Laparoscopic surgery for colon cancer is non-inferior to open surgery in terms of overall survival, and has been so since 2004. The majority expert opinion in the literature has considered these two techniques to be equivalent since 2002-2004. Laparoscopic surgery for rectal cancer has been increasingly accepted since 2006, but remains controversial. Knowledge translation efforts in this field appear to have paralleled the accumulation of clinical trial evidence.

  17. Optimal policies for cumulative damage models with maintenance last and first

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhao, Xufeng; Qian, Cunhua; Nakagawa, Toshio

    2013-01-01

    From the economical viewpoint of several combined PM policies in reliability theory, this paper takes up a standard cumulative damage model in which the notion of maintenance last is applied, i.e., the unit undergoes preventive maintenances before failure at a planned time T, at a damage level Z, or at a shock number N, whichever occurs last. Expected cost rates are detailedly formulated, and optimal problems of two alternative policies which combine time-based with condition-based preventive maintenances are discussed, i.e., optimal T L ⁎ for N, Z L ⁎ for T, and N L ⁎ for T are rigorously obtained. Comparison methods between such maintenance last and conventional maintenance first are explored. It is determined theoretically and numerically which policy should be adopted, according to the different methods in different cases when the time-based or the condition-based PM policy is optimized.

  18. Morphology of the cumulative logistic distribution when used as a model of radiologic film characteristic curves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prince, J.R.

    1988-01-01

    The cumulative logistic distribution (CLD) is an empiric model for film characteristic curves. Characterizing the shape parameters of the CLD in terms of contrast, latitude and speed is required. The CLD is written as Υ-F=D/[1+EXP-(Κ+κ 1 X)] where Υ is the optical density (OD) at log exposure X, F is fog level, D is a constant equal to Dm-F, Κ and κ 1 are shape parameters, and Dm is the maximum attainable OD. Further analysis demonstrates that when Κ is held constant, Κ 1 characterizes contrast (the larger κ 1 , the greater the contrast) and hence latitude; when κ 1 is held constant, Κ characterizes film speed (the larger Κ is, the faster the film). These equations and concepts are further illustrated with examples from radioscintigraphy, diagnostic radiology, and light sensitometry

  19. Cumulative complexity: a functional, patient-centered model of patient complexity can improve research and practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shippee, Nathan D; Shah, Nilay D; May, Carl R; Mair, Frances S; Montori, Victor M

    2012-10-01

    To design a functional, patient-centered model of patient complexity with practical applicability to analytic design and clinical practice. Existing literature on patient complexity has mainly identified its components descriptively and in isolation, lacking clarity as to their combined functions in disrupting care or to how complexity changes over time. The authors developed a cumulative complexity model, which integrates existing literature and emphasizes how clinical and social factors accumulate and interact to complicate patient care. A narrative literature review is used to explicate the model. The model emphasizes a core, patient-level mechanism whereby complicating factors impact care and outcomes: the balance between patient workload of demands and patient capacity to address demands. Workload encompasses the demands on the patient's time and energy, including demands of treatment, self-care, and life in general. Capacity concerns ability to handle work (e.g., functional morbidity, financial/social resources, literacy). Workload-capacity imbalances comprise the mechanism driving patient complexity. Treatment and illness burdens serve as feedback loops, linking negative outcomes to further imbalances, such that complexity may accumulate over time. With its components largely supported by existing literature, the model has implications for analytic design, clinical epidemiology, and clinical practice. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Evaluating Pharmacokinetic and Pharmacodynamic Interactions with Computational Models in Supporting Cumulative Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Yu-Mei; Clewell, Harvey; Campbell, Jerry; Andersen, Melvin

    2011-01-01

    Simultaneous or sequential exposure to multiple chemicals may cause interactions in the pharmacokinetics (PK) and/or pharmacodynamics (PD) of the individual chemicals. Such interactions can cause modification of the internal or target dose/response of one chemical in the mixture by other chemical(s), resulting in a change in the toxicity from that predicted from the summation of the effects of the single chemicals using dose additivity. In such cases, conducting quantitative cumulative risk assessment for chemicals present as a mixture is difficult. The uncertainties that arise from PK interactions can be addressed by developing physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models to describe the disposition of chemical mixtures. Further, PK models can be developed to describe mechanisms of action and tissue responses. In this article, PBPK/PD modeling efforts conducted to investigate chemical interactions at the PK and PD levels are reviewed to demonstrate the use of this predictive modeling framework in assessing health risks associated with exposures to complex chemical mixtures. PMID:21655141

  1. Study of cumulative fatigue damage detection for used parts with nonlinear output frequency response functions based on NARMAX modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Honglan; Mao, Hanying; Mao, Hanling; Zheng, Weixue; Huang, Zhenfeng; Li, Xinxin; Wang, Xianghong

    2017-12-01

    Cumulative fatigue damage detection for used parts plays a key role in the process of remanufacturing engineering and is related to the service safety of the remanufactured parts. In light of the nonlinear properties of used parts caused by cumulative fatigue damage, the based nonlinear output frequency response functions detection approach offers a breakthrough to solve this key problem. First, a modified PSO-adaptive lasso algorithm is introduced to improve the accuracy of the NARMAX model under impulse hammer excitation, and then, an effective new algorithm is derived to estimate the nonlinear output frequency response functions under rectangular pulse excitation, and a based nonlinear output frequency response functions index is introduced to detect the cumulative fatigue damage in used parts. Then, a novel damage detection approach that integrates the NARMAX model and the rectangular pulse is proposed for nonlinear output frequency response functions identification and cumulative fatigue damage detection of used parts. Finally, experimental studies of fatigued plate specimens and used connecting rod parts are conducted to verify the validity of the novel approach. The obtained results reveal that the new approach can detect cumulative fatigue damages of used parts effectively and efficiently and that the various values of the based nonlinear output frequency response functions index can be used to detect the different fatigue damages or working time. Since the proposed new approach can extract nonlinear properties of systems by only a single excitation of the inspected system, it shows great promise for use in remanufacturing engineering applications.

  2. Acquisition of choice in concurrent chains: Assessing the cumulative decision model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grace, Randolph C

    2016-05-01

    Concurrent chains is widely used to study pigeons' choice between terminal links that can vary in delay, magnitude, or probability of reinforcement. We review research on the acquisition of choice in this procedure. Acquisition has been studied with a variety of research designs, and some studies have incorporated no-food trials to allow for timing and choice to be observed concurrently. Results show that: Choice can be acquired rapidly within sessions when terminal links change unpredictably; under steady-state conditions, acquisition depends on both initial- and terminal-link schedules; and initial-link responding is mediated by learning about the terminal-link stimulus-reinforcer relations. The cumulative decision model (CDM) proposed by Christensen and Grace (2010) and Grace and McLean (2006, 2015) provides a good description of within-session acquisition, and correctly predicts the effects of initial and terminal-link schedules in steady-state designs (Grace, 2002a). Questions for future research include how abrupt shifts in preference within individual sessions and temporal control of terminal-link responding can be modeled. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. A simplified model for cumulative damage with interaction effect for creep loading

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gomuc, R.; Bui-Quoc, T.; Biron, A.

    1989-01-01

    This paper explains that the basic creep-rupture behavior of a material at high temperature is obtained with constant stresses under isothermal conditions. Structural components operating at high temperature are, however, usually subjected to fluctuations of stresses and/or temperatures. Experimental conditions cannot cover all possible combinations of these parameters and, in addition, systematic investigations on cumulative creep damage are very limited due to long-term testing. The authors suggest that there is a need to establish a reliable procedure for evaluating the cumulative creep damage effect under non-steady stresses and temperatures

  4. Divergent Cumulative Cultural Evolution

    OpenAIRE

    Marriott, Chris; Chebib, Jobran

    2016-01-01

    Divergent cumulative cultural evolution occurs when the cultural evolutionary trajectory diverges from the biological evolutionary trajectory. We consider the conditions under which divergent cumulative cultural evolution can occur. We hypothesize that two conditions are necessary. First that genetic and cultural information are stored separately in the agent. Second cultural information must be transferred horizontally between agents of different generations. We implement a model with these ...

  5. Assessment of cumulative evidence for the association between glutathione S-transferase polymorphisms and lung cancer: application of the Venice interim guidelines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langevin, Scott M; Ioannidis, John P A; Vineis, Paolo; Taioli, Emanuela

    2010-10-01

    There is an overwhelming abundance of genetic association studies available in the literature, which can often be collectively difficult to interpret. To address this issue, the Venice interim guidelines were established for determining the credibility of the cumulative evidence. The objective of this report is to evaluate the literature on the association of common glutathione S-transferase (GST) variants (GSTM1 null, GSTT1 null and GSTP1 Ile105Val polymorphism) and lung cancer, and to assess the credibility of the associations using the newly proposed cumulative evidence guidelines. Information from the literature was enriched with an updated meta-analysis and a pooled analysis using data from the Genetic Susceptibility to Environmental Carcinogens database. There was a significant association between GSTM1 null and lung cancer for the meta-analysis (meta odds ratio=1.17, 95% confidence interval: 1.10-1.25) and pooled analysis (adjusted odds ratio=1.10, 95% confidence interval: 1.04-1.16), although substantial heterogeneity was present. No overall association between lung cancer and GSTT1 null or GSTP1 Ile105Val was found. When the Venice criteria was applied, cumulative evidence for all associations were considered 'weak', with the exception of East Asian carriers of the G allele of GSTP1 Ile105Val, which was graded as 'moderate' evidence. Despite the large amounts of studies, and several statistically significant summary estimates produced by meta-analyses, the application of the Venice criteria suggests extensive heterogeneity and susceptibility to bias for the studies on association of common genetic polymorphisms, such as with GST variants and lung cancer.

  6. Quantification of the cumulative effects of river training works on the basin scale with 2D flood modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zischg, Andreas Paul; Felder, Guido; WWeingartner, Rolf

    2015-04-01

    The catchment of the river Aare upstream of Bern, Switzerland, with an area of approx. 3000 km2 is a complex network of sub-catchments with different runoff characteristics; it also includes two larger lakes. Most of the rivers were regulated in the 18th century. An important regulation, however, was realised as early as in the 17th century. For this catchment, the worst case flood event was identified and its consequences were analysed. Beside the hydro-meteorological characteristics, an important basis to model the worst case flood is to understand the non-linear effects of flood retention in the valley bottom and in the lakes. The aim of this study was to compare these effects based on both the current river network and the historic one prior to the main river training works. This allows to quantify the human impacts. Methodologically, we set up a coupled 2D flood model representing the floodplains of the river Aare as well as of the tributaries Lombach, Lütschine, Zulg, Rotache, Chise and Guerbe. The flood simulation was made in 2D with the software BASEMENT-ETH (Vetsch et al. 2014). The model was calibrated by means of reproducing the large floods in August 2005 and the bankfull discharge for all river reaches. The model computes the discharge at the outlet of the Aare catchment at Bern by routing all discharges from the sub-catchments through the river reaches and their floodplains. With this, the modulation of the input hydrographs by widespread floodings in the floodplains can be quantified. The same configuration was applied on the basis of reconstructed digital terrain models representing the landscape and the river network before the first significant river training works had been realised. This terrain model was reconstructed by georeferencing and digitalizing historic maps and cross-sections combined with the mapping of the geomorphologic evidences of former river structures in non-modified areas. The latter mapping procedure was facilitated by the

  7. Industrial and ecological cumulative exergy consumption of the United States via the 1997 input-output benchmark model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ukidwe, Nandan U.; Bakshi, Bhavik R.

    2007-01-01

    This paper develops a thermodynamic input-output (TIO) model of the 1997 United States economy that accounts for the flow of cumulative exergy in the 488-sector benchmark economic input-output model in two different ways. Industrial cumulative exergy consumption (ICEC) captures the exergy of all natural resources consumed directly and indirectly by each economic sector, while ecological cumulative exergy consumption (ECEC) also accounts for the exergy consumed in ecological systems for producing each natural resource. Information about exergy consumed in nature is obtained from the thermodynamics of biogeochemical cycles. As used in this work, ECEC is analogous to the concept of emergy, but does not rely on any of its controversial claims. The TIO model can also account for emissions from each sector and their impact and the role of labor. The use of consistent exergetic units permits the combination of various streams to define aggregate metrics that may provide insight into aspects related to the impact of economic sectors on the environment. Accounting for the contribution of natural capital by ECEC has been claimed to permit better representation of the quality of ecosystem goods and services than ICEC. The results of this work are expected to permit evaluation of these claims. If validated, this work is expected to lay the foundation for thermodynamic life cycle assessment, particularly of emerging technologies and with limited information

  8. Surfactant-induced skin irritation and skin repair: evaluation of a cumulative human irritation model by noninvasive techniques.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilhelm, K P; Freitag, G; Wolff, H H

    1994-12-01

    Although surfactant-induced acute irritant dermatitis has been extensively studied, our understanding about the induction and repair of the clinically more relevant chronic form is limited. Our purpose was to investigate qualitative and quantitative differences in surfactant-induced irritant skin reactions from cumulative exposure to structurally unrelated surfactants and to compare the maximal irritant responses from this model with corresponding reactions noted in a previously reported acute irritation model. Sodium lauryl sulfate (SLS), dodecyl trimethyl ammonium bromide (DTAB), and potassium soap were the model irritants. Surfactant solutions (7.5%) were applied for 20 minutes daily (for 8 consecutive days excluding the weekend) to the volar aspect of the forearm of 11 volunteers. Irritant reactions were repeatedly assessed until complete healing was indicated by visual assessment and by measurements of transepidermal water loss (TEWL), erythema (skin color reflectance), and stratum corneum hydration (electrical capacitance). Maximum irritant responses were compared with corresponding reactions from an acute irritation model. TEWL was increased by SLS and DTAB to the same extent, but erythema was significantly higher in DTAB-treated skin. Skin dryness, as demonstrated by decreased capacitance values and increased scores for scaling and fissuring, was significantly more pronounced than in an acute irritation model for SLS and DTAB, although no difference was detected between the two surfactants. Potassium soap led to a slight increase in TEWL, whereas the remaining features were not significantly changed. This chronic irritation model appears to represent the clinical situation of irritant contact dermatitis with pronounced skin dryness more closely than the acute irritation model. The present study confirms that an extended time is needed for complete healing of irritant skin reactions. We also demonstrated that the evaluation of the irritation potential of

  9. Weighted cumulative exposure models helped identify an association between early knee-pain consultations and future knee OA diagnosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Dahai; Peat, George; Bedson, John; Edwards, John J; Turkiewicz, Aleksandra; Jordan, Kelvin P

    2016-08-01

    To establish the association between prior knee-pain consultations and early diagnosis of knee osteoarthritis (OA) by weighted cumulative exposure (WCE) models. Data were from an electronic health care record (EHR) database (Consultations in Primary Care Archive). WCE functions for modeling the cumulative effect of time-varying knee-pain consultations weighted by recency were derived as a predictive tool in a population-based case-control sample and validated in a prospective cohort sample. Two WCE functions ([i] weighting of the importance of past consultations determined a priori; [ii] flexible spline-based estimation) were comprehensively compared with two simpler models ([iii] time since most recent consultation; total number of past consultations) on model goodness of fit, discrimination, and calibration both in derivation and validation phases. People with the most recent and most frequent knee-pain consultations were more likely to have high WCE scores that were associated with increased risk of knee OA diagnosis both in derivation and validation phases. Better model goodness of fit, discrimination, and calibration were observed for flexible spline-based WCE models. WCE functions can be used to model prediagnostic symptoms within routine EHR data and provide novel low-cost predictive tools contributing to early diagnosis. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. A cumulative risk factor model for early identification of academic difficulties in premature and low birth weight infants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, G; Bellinger, D; McCormick, M C

    2007-03-01

    Premature and low birth weight children have a high prevalence of academic difficulties. This study examines a model comprised of cumulative risk factors that allows early identification of these difficulties. This is a secondary analysis of data from a large cohort of premature (mathematics. Potential predictor variables were categorized into 4 domains: sociodemographic, neonatal, maternal mental health and early childhood (ages 3 and 5). Regression analysis was used to create a model to predict reading and mathematics scores. Variables from all domains were significant in the model, predicting low achievement scores in reading (R (2) of 0.49, model p-value mathematics (R (2) of 0.44, model p-value intelligence, visual-motor skill and higher behavioral disturbance scores (early childhood). Lower mathematics scores were predicted by lower maternal education, income and age and Black or Hispanic race (sociodemographic); lower birth weight and higher head circumference (neonatal); lower maternal responsivity (maternal mental health); lower intelligence, visual-motor skill and higher behavioral disturbance scores (early childhood). Sequential early childhood risk factors in premature and LBW children lead to a cumulative risk for academic difficulties and can be used for early identification.

  11. Mental Defeat and Cumulative Trauma Experiences Predict Trauma-Related Psychopathology : Evidence From a Postconflict Population in Northern Uganda

    OpenAIRE

    Wilker, Sarah; Kleim, Birgit; Geiling, Angelika; Pfeiffer, Anett; Elbert, Thomas; Kolassa, Iris-Tatjana

    2017-01-01

    The peritraumatic cognitive process of mental defeat, the complete loss of inner resistance, has been identified as a key predictor of PTSD. Yet, most evidence on cognitive risk factors stems from industrialized countries where survivors typically report few traumata. Research from postconflict settings indicates that individual differences decrease with accumulating traumatic experiences, as almost everybody develops PTSD at extreme levels of trauma load. Would this leave less room for the i...

  12. An Integrated Modeling Framework Forecasting Ecosystem Exposure-- A Systems Approach to the Cumulative Impacts of Multiple Stressors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnston, J. M.

    2013-12-01

    Freshwater habitats provide fishable, swimmable and drinkable resources and are a nexus of geophysical and biological processes. These processes in turn influence the persistence and sustainability of populations, communities and ecosystems. Climate change and landuse change encompass numerous stressors of potential exposure, including the introduction of toxic contaminants, invasive species, and disease in addition to physical drivers such as temperature and hydrologic regime. A systems approach that includes the scientific and technologic basis of assessing the health of ecosystems is needed to effectively protect human health and the environment. The Integrated Environmental Modeling Framework 'iemWatersheds' has been developed as a consistent and coherent means of forecasting the cumulative impact of co-occurring stressors. The Framework consists of three facilitating technologies: Data for Environmental Modeling (D4EM) that automates the collection and standardization of input data; the Framework for Risk Assessment of Multimedia Environmental Systems (FRAMES) that manages the flow of information between linked models; and the Supercomputer for Model Uncertainty and Sensitivity Evaluation (SuperMUSE) that provides post-processing and analysis of model outputs, including uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. Five models are linked within the Framework to provide multimedia simulation capabilities for hydrology and water quality processes: the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) predicts surface water and sediment runoff and associated contaminants; the Watershed Mercury Model (WMM) predicts mercury runoff and loading to streams; the Water quality Analysis and Simulation Program (WASP) predicts water quality within the stream channel; the Habitat Suitability Index (HSI) model scores physicochemical habitat quality for individual fish species; and the Bioaccumulation and Aquatic System Simulator (BASS) predicts fish growth, population dynamics and bioaccumulation

  13. Evolutionarily stable learning schedules and cumulative culture in discrete generation models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aoki, Kenichi; Wakano, Joe Yuichiro; Lehmann, Laurent

    2012-06-01

    Individual learning (e.g., trial-and-error) and social learning (e.g., imitation) are alternative ways of acquiring and expressing the appropriate phenotype in an environment. The optimal choice between using individual learning and/or social learning may be dictated by the life-stage or age of an organism. Of special interest is a learning schedule in which social learning precedes individual learning, because such a schedule is apparently a necessary condition for cumulative culture. Assuming two obligatory learning stages per discrete generation, we obtain the evolutionarily stable learning schedules for the three situations where the environment is constant, fluctuates between generations, or fluctuates within generations. During each learning stage, we assume that an organism may target the optimal phenotype in the current environment by individual learning, and/or the mature phenotype of the previous generation by oblique social learning. In the absence of exogenous costs to learning, the evolutionarily stable learning schedules are predicted to be either pure social learning followed by pure individual learning ("bang-bang" control) or pure individual learning at both stages ("flat" control). Moreover, we find for each situation that the evolutionarily stable learning schedule is also the one that optimizes the learned phenotype at equilibrium. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Evidence for the presence of carbonate melt during the formation of cumulates in the Colli Albani Volcanic District, Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaw, Cliff S. J.

    2018-06-01

    Fergusite and syenite xenoliths and mafic lapilli from two locations in the Villa Senni ignimbrite of the Colli Albani Volcanic District show evidence for fractionation of a silicate magma that led to exsolution of an immiscible carbonate melt. The fergusite xenoliths are divided into two groups on the basis of their clinopyroxene compositions. Group 1 clinopyroxene records the crystallisation of a silicate melt and enrichment of the melt in Al, Ti and Mn and depletion in Si as well as enrichment in incompatible trace elements. The second group of clinopyroxene compositions (group 2) comes mainly from Ba-F-phlogopite- and Ti-andradite-bearing fergusites. They have significantly higher Si and lower Al and Ti and, like the coexisting phlogopite and garnet are strongly enriched in Mn. The minerals in the fergusites containing group 2 clinopyroxene are enriched in Ba, Sr, Cs, V and Li all of which are expected to partition strongly into a carbonate melt phase relative to the coexisting silicate melt. The compositional data suggest that the group 1 fergusites record sidewall crystallisation of CO2-rich silicate melt and that once the melt reached a critical degree of fractionation, carbonate melt exsolved. The group 2 fergusites record continued crystallisation in this heterogeneous silicate - carbonate melt system. Composite xenoliths of fergusite and thermometamorphic skarn record contact times of hundreds to a few thousand years indicating that fractionation and assimilation was relatively rapid.

  15. Diclofenac sodium 3% gel for the management of actinic keratosis: 10+ years of cumulative evidence of efficacy and safety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, George M; Stockfleth, Eggert

    2012-05-01

    Diclofenac sodium 3% gel (Solaraze®) gained US approval for the treatment of actinic keratosis (AK) more than 10 years ago. Since the publication of the pivotal phase 3 studies, numerous clinical studies have assessed use of this therapy in a variety of body areas, special populations, and novel combinations. To provide a comprehensive update on clinical data and research on the use of diclofenac sodium 3% gel in AK. Review of the literature. Accumulating evidence from preclinical research supports that the proposed mechanism of diclofenac sodium 3% gel may include cyclo-oxgenase 2 (COX-2) inhibition, inhibition of angiogenesis, and induction of apoptosis. A literature review identified 17 publications (beyond the 2 pivotal studies) on the use of diclofenac sodium 3% gel for AK. A phase 4 open-label study reported that 58 percent of patients achieved complete clearance of target lesions at the 30-day post-treatment assessment; among patients who were evaluable at 1-year post-treatment, sustained long-term clearance of AK lesions was observed. Active comparator studies demonstrated comparable efficacy of diclofenac sodium 3% gel with 5-fluorouracil 5% and imiquimod 5%. Publications on the efficacy of diclofenac sodium 3% gel for AK of the lip report complete clearance rates comparable to those reported for other body areas. Diclofenac sodium 3% gel has also demonstrated efficacy for clearing AK lesions in immunosuppressed populations. Sequential use of diclofenac sodium 3% gel with cryosurgery or photodynamic therapy has been investigated and may emerge as a useful approach for some patients. Diclofenac sodium 3% gel has a unique proposed mechanism of action in AK that may involve COX-2 inhibition, inhibition of angiogenesis, and induction of apoptosis. In the past decade, numerous clinical studies have demonstrated this topical therapy to be effective and well tolerated for the treatment of AK.

  16. A model of cumulation of 137Cs in the carp (Cyprinus carpio L.)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kwapulinski, J.; Buszman, A.; Kwapulinska, G.

    1976-01-01

    A model of 137 Cs as accumulation in various stages of carp development is presented. The model includes the influence of body weight and weight increase on 137 Cs concentration. Moreover, an equation is given, illustrating the influence of the activity of bottom sediments and global fallout. The model was checked, using the results of 137 Cs determinations in the years 1965-1970

  17. An aggregate method to calibrate the reference point of cumulative prospect theory-based route choice model for urban transit network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yufeng; Long, Man; Luo, Sida; Bao, Yu; Shen, Hanxia

    2015-12-01

    Transit route choice model is the key technology of public transit systems planning and management. Traditional route choice models are mostly based on expected utility theory which has an evident shortcoming that it cannot accurately portray travelers' subjective route choice behavior for their risk preferences are not taken into consideration. Cumulative prospect theory (CPT), a brand new theory, can be used to describe travelers' decision-making process under the condition of uncertainty of transit supply and risk preferences of multi-type travelers. The method to calibrate the reference point, a key parameter to CPT-based transit route choice model, determines the precision of the model to a great extent. In this paper, a new method is put forward to obtain the value of reference point which combines theoretical calculation and field investigation results. Comparing the proposed method with traditional method, it shows that the new method can promote the quality of CPT-based model by improving the accuracy in simulating travelers' route choice behaviors based on transit trip investigation from Nanjing City, China. The proposed method is of great significance to logical transit planning and management, and to some extent makes up the defect that obtaining the reference point is solely based on qualitative analysis.

  18. Predicting Cumulative Incidence Probability by Direct Binomial Regression

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Scheike, Thomas H.; Zhang, Mei-Jie

    Binomial modelling; cumulative incidence probability; cause-specific hazards; subdistribution hazard......Binomial modelling; cumulative incidence probability; cause-specific hazards; subdistribution hazard...

  19. Is the cluster risk model of parental adversities better than the cumulative risk model as an indicator of childhood physical abuse?: findings from two representative community surveys.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuller-Thomson, E; Sawyer, J-L

    2014-01-01

    Screening strategies for childhood physical abuse (CPA) need to be improved in order to identify those most at risk. This study uses two regionally representative community samples to examine whether a cluster or cumulative model of risk indicators (i.e. parental divorce, parental unemployment, and parental addictions) explains a larger proportion of the variation in CPA. Data were drawn from Statistics Canada's National Population Health Survey (1994-1995) and Canadian Community Health Survey 3.1 (2005). Response rates were greater than 80% in both samples. Each survey had approximately 13,000 respondents aged 18 and over who answered questions about the above adverse childhood experiences. A gradient was shown with similar outcomes in each data set. Only 3.4% of adults who experienced none of the three risk indicators reported they had been physically abused during childhood or adolescence. The prevalence of CPA was greater among those who experienced parental divorce alone (8.3%-10.7%), parental unemployment alone (8.9%-9.7%) or parental addictions alone (18.0%-19.5%). When all three risk indicators were present, the prevalence of CPA ranged from 36.0%-41.0% and the age-sex-race adjusted odds were greater than 15 times that of individuals with none of the three risk indicators. The cluster model explained a statistically significantly larger proportion of the variation than the cumulative model although the difference between the two models was modest. For the purposes of parsimony, the cumulative model may be the better alternative. Adults who were exposed to two or more childhood risk indicators were much more likely to report that they were physically abused during their childhood than those with only one or no risk factors. Medical professionals may use this information on cumulative risk factors to more effectively target screening for potential CPA. Future research should include prospective studies. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  20. EPA's SHEDS-multimedia model: children's cumulative pyrethroid exposure estimates and evaluation against NHANES biomarker data

    Science.gov (United States)

    The U.S. EPA's SHEDS-Multimedia model was applied to enhance the understanding of children's exposures and doses to multiple pyrethroid pesticides, including major contributing chemicals and pathways. This paper presents combined dietary and residential exposure estimates and cum...

  1. Complexity and demographic explanations of cumulative culture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Querbes, Adrien; Vaesen, Krist; Houkes, Wybo

    2014-01-01

    Formal models have linked prehistoric and historical instances of technological change (e.g., the Upper Paleolithic transition, cultural loss in Holocene Tasmania, scientific progress since the late nineteenth century) to demographic change. According to these models, cumulation of technological complexity is inhibited by decreasing--while favoured by increasing--population levels. Here we show that these findings are contingent on how complexity is defined: demography plays a much more limited role in sustaining cumulative culture in case formal models deploy Herbert Simon's definition of complexity rather than the particular definitions of complexity hitherto assumed. Given that currently available empirical evidence doesn't afford discriminating proper from improper definitions of complexity, our robustness analyses put into question the force of recent demographic explanations of particular episodes of cultural change.

  2. Complexity and demographic explanations of cumulative culture.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adrien Querbes

    Full Text Available Formal models have linked prehistoric and historical instances of technological change (e.g., the Upper Paleolithic transition, cultural loss in Holocene Tasmania, scientific progress since the late nineteenth century to demographic change. According to these models, cumulation of technological complexity is inhibited by decreasing--while favoured by increasing--population levels. Here we show that these findings are contingent on how complexity is defined: demography plays a much more limited role in sustaining cumulative culture in case formal models deploy Herbert Simon's definition of complexity rather than the particular definitions of complexity hitherto assumed. Given that currently available empirical evidence doesn't afford discriminating proper from improper definitions of complexity, our robustness analyses put into question the force of recent demographic explanations of particular episodes of cultural change.

  3. Using Marginal Structural Modeling to Estimate the Cumulative Impact of an Unconditional Tax Credit on Self-Rated Health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pega, Frank; Blakely, Tony; Glymour, M Maria; Carter, Kristie N; Kawachi, Ichiro

    2016-02-15

    In previous studies, researchers estimated short-term relationships between financial credits and health outcomes using conventional regression analyses, but they did not account for time-varying confounders affected by prior treatment (CAPTs) or the credits' cumulative impacts over time. In this study, we examined the association between total number of years of receiving New Zealand's Family Tax Credit (FTC) and self-rated health (SRH) in 6,900 working-age parents using 7 waves of New Zealand longitudinal data (2002-2009). We conducted conventional linear regression analyses, both unadjusted and adjusted for time-invariant and time-varying confounders measured at baseline, and fitted marginal structural models (MSMs) that more fully adjusted for confounders, including CAPTs. Of all participants, 5.1%-6.8% received the FTC for 1-3 years and 1.8%-3.6% for 4-7 years. In unadjusted and adjusted conventional regression analyses, each additional year of receiving the FTC was associated with 0.033 (95% confidence interval (CI): -0.047, -0.019) and 0.026 (95% CI: -0.041, -0.010) units worse SRH (on a 5-unit scale). In the MSMs, the average causal treatment effect also reflected a small decrease in SRH (unstabilized weights: β = -0.039 unit, 95% CI: -0.058, -0.020; stabilized weights: β = -0.031 unit, 95% CI: -0.050, -0.007). Cumulatively receiving the FTC marginally reduced SRH. Conventional regression analyses and MSMs produced similar estimates, suggesting little bias from CAPTs. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  4. Managing the Cumulative Impacts of Land Uses in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin: A Modeling Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Richard, R. Schneider; J. Brad Stelfox; Stan Boutin; Shawn Wasel

    2003-01-01

    This case study from northeastern Alberta, Canada, demonstrates a fundamentally different approach to forest management in which stakeholders balance conservation and economic objectives by weighing current management options from the point of view of their long-term effects on the forest. ALCES®, a landscape-scale simulation model, is used to quantify the effects of the current regulatory framework and typical industrial practices on a suite of ecological and economic indicators over the nex...

  5. Influence of hydrological models on cumulative flow simulation under climate change scenarios : an application in the Baskatong watershed

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chartier, I.

    2006-01-01

    Since Hydro-Quebec owns and operates many hydroelectric power plants, from which it draws 96 per cent of its electricity, the electric utility found it necessary to study the impact of climate change on water resources and cumulative flow. This paper described Hydro-Quebec's method for evaluating climatic change impacts using hydrological simulations, with particular reference to the Baskatong watershed in the Outaouais region of Quebec. This basin is one of 5 sub-basins within the Gatineau River. Hydro-Quebec's studies were conducted using 3 hydrological models known as MOHYSE, HSAMI and HYDROTEL; 4 general circulation models (GCM) known as HadCM3, CSIRO, ECHAM4 and CGCM3; and, 4 greenhouse gas scenarios called A1, B1, A2 and B2. GCMs were shown to have a larger impact on the final hydrological simulation result compared to greenhouse gas scenarios or the hydrological models, although the latter two did have a significant impact on the final result of the simulation. Each scenario provided long term predictions despite the use of different models. The study demonstrated that many regions will have to rely on a range of GCM for more elaborate climatic scenarios. 9 refs., 1 tab., 9 figs

  6. Development of a "Hydrologic Equivalent Wetland" Concept for Modeling Cumulative Effects of Wetlands on Watershed Hydrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, X.; Liu, T.; Li, R.; Yang, X.; Duan, L.; Luo, Y.

    2012-12-01

    Wetlands are one of the most important watershed microtopographic features that affect, in combination rather than individually, hydrologic processes (e.g., routing) and the fate and transport of constituents (e.g., sediment and nutrients). Efforts to conserve existing wetlands and/or to restore lost wetlands require that watershed-level effects of wetlands on water quantity and water quality be quantified. Because monitoring approaches are usually cost or logistics prohibitive at watershed scale, distributed watershed models, such as the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), can be a best resort if wetlands can be appropriately represented in the models. However, the exact method that should be used to incorporate wetlands into hydrologic models is the subject of much disagreement in the literature. In addition, there is a serious lack of information about how to model wetland conservation-restoration effects using such kind of integrated modeling approach. The objectives of this study were to: 1) develop a "hydrologic equivalent wetland" (HEW) concept; and 2) demonstrate how to use the HEW concept in SWAT to assess effects of wetland restoration within the Broughton's Creek watershed located in southwestern Manitoba of Canada, and of wetland conservation within the upper portion of the Otter Tail River watershed located in northwestern Minnesota of the United States. The HEWs were defined in terms of six calibrated parameters: the fraction of the subbasin area that drains into wetlands (WET_FR), the volume of water stored in the wetlands when filled to their normal water level (WET_NVOL), the volume of water stored in the wetlands when filled to their maximum water level (WET_MXVOL), the longest tributary channel length in the subbasin (CH_L1), Manning's n value for the tributary channels (CH_N1), and Manning's n value for the main channel (CH_N2). The results indicated that the HEW concept allows the nonlinear functional relations between watershed processes

  7. Reduction of CMIP5 models bias using Cumulative Distribution Function transform and impact on crops yields simulations across West Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moise Famien, Adjoua; Defrance, Dimitri; Sultan, Benjamin; Janicot, Serge; Vrac, Mathieu

    2017-04-01

    Different CMIP exercises show that the simulations of the future/current temperature and precipitation are complex with a high uncertainty degree. For example, the African monsoon system is not correctly simulated and most of the CMIP5 models underestimate the precipitation. Therefore, Global Climate Models (GCMs) show significant systematic biases that require bias correction before it can be used in impacts studies. Several methods of bias corrections have been developed for several years and are increasingly using more complex statistical methods. The aims of this work is to show the interest of the CDFt (Cumulative Distribution Function transfom (Michelangeli et al.,2009)) method to reduce the data bias from 29 CMIP5 GCMs over Africa and to assess the impact of bias corrected data on crop yields prediction by the end of the 21st century. In this work, we apply the CDFt to daily data covering the period from 1950 to 2099 (Historical and RCP8.5) and we correct the climate variables (temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, wind) by the use of the new daily database from the EU project WATer and global CHange (WATCH) available from 1979 to 2013 as reference data. The performance of the method is assessed in several cases. First, data are corrected based on different calibrations periods and are compared, on one hand, with observations to estimate the sensitivity of the method to the calibration period and, on other hand, with another bias-correction method used in the ISIMIP project. We find that, whatever the calibration period used, CDFt corrects well the mean state of variables and preserves their trend, as well as daily rainfall occurrence and intensity distributions. However, some differences appear when compared to the outputs obtained with the method used in ISIMIP and show that the quality of the correction is strongly related to the reference data. Secondly, we validate the bias correction method with the agronomic simulations (SARRA-H model (Kouressy

  8. Instrumental variables estimation of exposure effects on a time-to-event endpoint using structural cumulative survival models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martinussen, Torben; Vansteelandt, Stijn; Tchetgen Tchetgen, Eric J; Zucker, David M

    2017-12-01

    The use of instrumental variables for estimating the effect of an exposure on an outcome is popular in econometrics, and increasingly so in epidemiology. This increasing popularity may be attributed to the natural occurrence of instrumental variables in observational studies that incorporate elements of randomization, either by design or by nature (e.g., random inheritance of genes). Instrumental variables estimation of exposure effects is well established for continuous outcomes and to some extent for binary outcomes. It is, however, largely lacking for time-to-event outcomes because of complications due to censoring and survivorship bias. In this article, we make a novel proposal under a class of structural cumulative survival models which parameterize time-varying effects of a point exposure directly on the scale of the survival function; these models are essentially equivalent with a semi-parametric variant of the instrumental variables additive hazards model. We propose a class of recursive instrumental variable estimators for these exposure effects, and derive their large sample properties along with inferential tools. We examine the performance of the proposed method in simulation studies and illustrate it in a Mendelian randomization study to evaluate the effect of diabetes on mortality using data from the Health and Retirement Study. We further use the proposed method to investigate potential benefit from breast cancer screening on subsequent breast cancer mortality based on the HIP-study. © 2017, The International Biometric Society.

  9. Managing the Cumulative Impacts of Land Uses in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin: A Modeling Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard, R. Schneider

    2003-07-01

    Full Text Available This case study from northeastern Alberta, Canada, demonstrates a fundamentally different approach to forest management in which stakeholders balance conservation and economic objectives by weighing current management options from the point of view of their long-term effects on the forest. ALCES®, a landscape-scale simulation model, is used to quantify the effects of the current regulatory framework and typical industrial practices on a suite of ecological and economic indicators over the next 100 yr. These simulations suggest that, if current practices continue, the combined activities of the energy and forestry industries in our 59,000 km2 study area will cause the density of edge of human origin to increase from 1.8 km/km 2 to a maximum of 8.0 km/km2. We also predict that older age classes of merchantable forest stands will be largely eliminated from the landscape, habitat availability for woodland caribou will decline from 43 to 6%, and there will be a progressive shortfall in the supply of softwood timber beginning in approximately 60 yr. Additional simulations involving a suite of "best practices" demonstrate that substantial improvements in ecological outcome measures could be achieved through alternative management scenarios while still maintaining a sustainable flow of economic benefits. We discuss the merits of our proposed approach to land use planning and apply it to the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin.

  10. Failure-To-Thrive, Maltreatment and the Behavior and Development of 6-Year-Old Children from Low-Income, Urban Families: A Cumulative Risk Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerr, Mia A.; Black, Maureen M.; Krishnakumar, Ambika

    2000-01-01

    A cumulative risk model was used to examine the relationship among failure-to-thrive (FIT), maltreatment, and four aspects of children's development (cognitive performance, adaptive functioning at school, classroom behavior, and behavior at home) in 193 6-year-olds. Risk status was negatively associated with the four developmental outcomes.…

  11. Switching From Age-Based Stimulus Dosing to Dose Titration Protocols in Electroconvulsive Therapy: Empirical Evidence for Better Patient Outcomes With Lower Peak and Cumulative Energy Doses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neill-Kerr, Alex; Yassin, Anhar; Rogers, Stephen; Cornish, Janie

    2017-09-01

    The aim of this study was to test the proposition that adoption of a dose titration protocol may be associated with better patient outcomes, at lower treatment dose, and with comparable cumulative dose to that in patients treated using an age-based stimulus dosing protocol. This was an analysis of data assembled from archived records and based on cohorts of patients treated respectively on an age-based stimulus dosing protocol and on a dose titration protocol in the National Health Service in England. We demonstrated a significantly better response in the patient cohort treated with dose titration than with age-based stimulus dosing. Peak doses were less and the total cumulative dose was less in the dose titration group than in the age-based stimulus dosing group. Our findings are consistent with superior outcomes in patients treated using a dose titration protocol when compared with age-based stimulus dosing in a similar cohort of patients.

  12. Cumulative Poisson Distribution Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowerman, Paul N.; Scheuer, Ernest M.; Nolty, Robert

    1990-01-01

    Overflow and underflow in sums prevented. Cumulative Poisson Distribution Program, CUMPOIS, one of two computer programs that make calculations involving cumulative Poisson distributions. Both programs, CUMPOIS (NPO-17714) and NEWTPOIS (NPO-17715), used independently of one another. CUMPOIS determines cumulative Poisson distribution, used to evaluate cumulative distribution function (cdf) for gamma distributions with integer shape parameters and cdf for X (sup2) distributions with even degrees of freedom. Used by statisticians and others concerned with probabilities of independent events occurring over specific units of time, area, or volume. Written in C.

  13. A bivariate optimal replacement policy with cumulative repair cost ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Min-Tsai Lai

    Shock model; cumulative damage model; cumulative repair cost limit; preventive maintenance model. 1. Introduction ... with two types of shocks: one type is failure shock, and the other type is damage ...... Theory, methods and applications.

  14. Semantic Modelling of Digital Forensic Evidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kahvedžić, Damir; Kechadi, Tahar

    The reporting of digital investigation results are traditionally carried out in prose and in a large investigation may require successive communication of findings between different parties. Popular forensic suites aid in the reporting process by storing provenance and positional data but do not automatically encode why the evidence is considered important. In this paper we introduce an evidence management methodology to encode the semantic information of evidence. A structured vocabulary of terms, ontology, is used to model the results in a logical and predefined manner. The descriptions are application independent and automatically organised. The encoded descriptions aim to help the investigation in the task of report writing and evidence communication and can be used in addition to existing evidence management techniques.

  15. Modeling cumulative effects in life cycle assessment: the case of fertilizer in wheat production contributing to the global warming potential.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laratte, Bertrand; Guillaume, Bertrand; Kim, Junbeum; Birregah, Babiga

    2014-05-15

    This paper aims at presenting a dynamic indicator for life cycle assessment (LCA) measuring cumulative impacts over time of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from fertilizers used for wheat cultivation and production. Our approach offers a dynamic indicator of global warming potential (GWP), one of the most used indicator of environmental impacts (e.g. in the Kyoto Protocol). For a case study, the wheat production in France was selected and considered by using data from official sources about fertilizer consumption and production of wheat. We propose to assess GWP environmental impact based on LCA method. The system boundary is limited to the fertilizer production for 1 ton of wheat produced (functional unit) from 1910 to 2010. As applied to wheat production in France, traditional LCA shows a maximum GWP impact of 500 kg CO2-eq for 1 ton of wheat production, whereas the GWP impact of wheat production over time with our approach to dynamic LCA and its cumulative effects increases to 18,000 kg CO2-eq for 1 ton of wheat production. In this paper, only one substance and one impact assessment indicator are presented. However, the methodology can be generalized and improved by using different substances and indicators. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. Log wavelet leaders cumulant based multifractal analysis of EVI fMRI time series: evidence of scaling in ongoing and evoked brain activity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ciuciu, P.; Rabrait, C. [CEA, Neuro Spin, Gif Sur Yvette (France); Abry, P.; Wendt, H. [Ecole Normale Super Lyon, Phys Lab, CNRS, UMR 5672, Lyon (France)

    2008-07-01

    Classical within-subject analysis in functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) relies on a detection step to localize which parts of the brain are activated by a given stimulus type. This is usually achieved using model-based approaches. Here, we propose an alternative exploratory analysis. The originality of this contribution is twofold. First, we propose a synthetic, consistent, and comparative overview of the various stochastic processes and estimation procedures used to model and analyze scale invariance. Notably, it is explained how multifractal models are more versatile to adjust the scaling properties of fMRI data but require more elaborated analysis procedures. Second, we bring evidence of the existence of actual scaling in fMRI time series that are clearly disentangled from putative superimposed non-stationarities. By nature, scaling analysis requires the use of long enough signals with high frequency sampling rate. To this end, we make use of a localized 3-D echo volume imaging (EVI) technique, which has recently emerged in fMRI because it allows very fast acquisitions of successive brain volumes. High temporal resolution EVI fMRI data have been acquired both in resting state and during a slow event-related visual paradigm. A voxel-based systematic multifractal analysis has been performed over both kinds of data. Combining multifractal attribute estimates together with paired statistical tests, we observe significant scaling parameter changes between ongoing and evoked brain activity, which clearly validate an increase in long memory and suggest a global multi-fractality decrease effect under activation. (authors)

  17. Complexity and demographic explanations of cumulative culture

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Querbes, A.; Vaesen, K.; Houkes, W.N.

    2014-01-01

    Formal models have linked prehistoric and historical instances of technological change (e.g., the Upper Paleolithic transition, cultural loss in Holocene Tasmania, scientific progress since the late nineteenth century) to demographic change. According to these models, cumulation of technological

  18. Cumulative risk, cumulative outcome: a 20-year longitudinal study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leslie Atkinson

    Full Text Available Cumulative risk (CR models provide some of the most robust findings in the developmental literature, predicting numerous and varied outcomes. Typically, however, these outcomes are predicted one at a time, across different samples, using concurrent designs, longitudinal designs of short duration, or retrospective designs. We predicted that a single CR index, applied within a single sample, would prospectively predict diverse outcomes, i.e., depression, intelligence, school dropout, arrest, smoking, and physical disease from childhood to adulthood. Further, we predicted that number of risk factors would predict number of adverse outcomes (cumulative outcome; CO. We also predicted that early CR (assessed at age 5/6 explains variance in CO above and beyond that explained by subsequent risk (assessed at ages 12/13 and 19/20. The sample consisted of 284 individuals, 48% of whom were diagnosed with a speech/language disorder. Cumulative risk, assessed at 5/6-, 12/13-, and 19/20-years-old, predicted aforementioned outcomes at age 25/26 in every instance. Furthermore, number of risk factors was positively associated with number of negative outcomes. Finally, early risk accounted for variance beyond that explained by later risk in the prediction of CO. We discuss these findings in terms of five criteria posed by these data, positing a "mediated net of adversity" model, suggesting that CR may increase some central integrative factor, simultaneously augmenting risk across cognitive, quality of life, psychiatric and physical health outcomes.

  19. Modelling the changing cumulative vulnerability to climate-related hazards for river basin management using a GIS-based multicriteria decision approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hung, Hung-Chih; Wu, Ju-Yu; Hung, Chih-Hsuan

    2017-04-01

    1. Background Asia-Pacific region is one of the most vulnerable areas of the world to climate-related hazards and extremes due to rapid urbanization and over-development in hazard-prone areas. It is thus increasingly recognized that the management of land use and reduction of hazard risk are inextricably linked. This is especially critical from the perspective of integrated river basin management. A range of studies has targeted existing vulnerability assessments. However, limited attention has been paid to the cumulative effects of multiple vulnerable factors and their dynamics faced by local communities. This study proposes a novel methodology to access the changing cumulative vulnerability to climate-related hazards, and to examine the relationship between the attraction factors relevant to the general process of urbanization and vulnerability variability with a focus on a river basin management unit. 2. Methods and data The methods applied in this study include three steps. First, using Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) approach, a Cumulative Vulnerability Assessment Framework (CVAF) is built with a goal to characterize and compare the vulnerability to climate-related hazards within river basin regions based on a composition of multiple indicators. We organize these indicator metrics into three categories: (1) hazard exposure; (2) socioeconomic sensitivity, and (3) adaptive capacity. Second, the CVAF is applied by combining a geographical information system (GIS)-based spatial statistics technique with a multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) to assess and map the changing cumulative vulnerability, comparing conditions in 1996 and 2006 in Danshui River Basin, Taiwan. Third, to examine the affecting factors of vulnerability changing, we develop a Vulnerability Changing Model (VCM) using four attraction factors to reflect how the process of urban developments leads to vulnerability changing. The factors are transport networks, land uses

  20. A pore structure model for the gas transport property changes, initial oxidation rates and cumulative weight loss of AGR moderator graphite

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johnson, P.A.V.

    1985-09-01

    A quantitative model has been developed for the gas transport property variation, cumulative weight loss and initial oxidation rates of AGR moderator graphite. The model utilises the theory of dynamic moments of the pore structure to calculate the changes in physical properties brought about by radiolytic corrosion taking place within the graphite porosity. In order to account for the behaviour of the initial rate curves, and the weight loss data obtained it is necessary to invoke the presence of a group of cylindrical pore and a group of small slab-shaped pores. The latter are methane depleted. This is in addition to the pore group involved in gas transport which is best represented by cylinders of mean radius 2.13 μm. The model satisfactorily predicts the experimental weight loss data obtained from experiments in the DIDO 6V3 and BFB loops. (author)

  1. Assessing the cumulative impacts of geographically isolated wetlands on watershed hydrology using the SWAT model coupled with improved wetland modules.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, S; Yeo, I-Y; Lang, M W; Sadeghi, A M; McCarty, G W; Moglen, G E; Evenson, G R

    2018-06-07

    Despite recognizing the importance of wetlands in the Coastal Plain of the Chesapeake Bay Watershed (CBW) in terms of ecosystem services, our understanding of wetland functions has mostly been limited to individual wetlands and overall catchment-scale wetland functions have rarely been investigated. This study is aimed at assessing the cumulative impacts of wetlands on watershed hydrology for an agricultural watershed within the Coastal Plain of the CBW using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). We employed two improved wetland modules for enhanced representation of physical processes and spatial distribution of riparian wetlands (RWs) and geographically isolated wetlands (GIWs). This study focused on GIWs as their hydrological impacts on watershed hydrology are poorly understood and GIWs are poorly protected. Multiple wetland scenarios were prepared by removing all or portions of the baseline GIW condition indicated by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service National Wetlands Inventory geospatial dataset. We further compared the impacts of GIWs and RWs on downstream flow (i.e., streamflow at the watershed outlet). Our simulation results showed that GIWs strongly influenced downstream flow by altering water transport mechanisms in upstream areas. Loss of all GIWs reduced both water routed to GIWs and water infiltrated into the soil through the bottom of GIWs, leading to an increase in surface runoff of 9% and a decrease in groundwater flow of 7% in upstream areas. These changes resulted in increased variability of downstream flow in response to extreme flow conditions. GIW loss also induced an increase in month to month variability of downstream flow and a decrease in the baseflow contribution to streamflow. Loss of all GIWs was shown to cause a greater fluctuation of downstream flow than loss of all RWs for this study site, due to a greater total water storage capacity of GIWs. Our findings indicate that GIWs play a significant role in controlling hydrological

  2. Dark energy observational evidence and theoretical models

    CERN Document Server

    Novosyadlyj, B; Shtanov, Yu; Zhuk, A

    2013-01-01

    The book elucidates the current state of the dark energy problem and presents the results of the authors, who work in this area. It describes the observational evidence for the existence of dark energy, the methods and results of constraining of its parameters, modeling of dark energy by scalar fields, the space-times with extra spatial dimensions, especially Kaluza---Klein models, the braneworld models with a single extra dimension as well as the problems of positive definition of gravitational energy in General Relativity, energy conditions and consequences of their violation in the presence of dark energy. This monograph is intended for science professionals, educators and graduate students, specializing in general relativity, cosmology, field theory and particle physics.

  3. Physics-Based Stress Corrosion Cracking Component Reliability Model cast in an R7-Compatible Cumulative Damage Framework

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Unwin, Stephen D.; Lowry, Peter P.; Layton, Robert F.; Toloczko, Mychailo B.; Johnson, Kenneth I.; Sanborn, Scott E.

    2011-07-01

    This is a working report drafted under the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization pathway of the Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program, describing statistical models of passives component reliabilities.

  4. Family Resources and Effects on Child Behavior Problem Interventions: A Cumulative Risk Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tømmerås, Truls; Kjøbli, John

    2017-01-01

    Family resources have been associated with health care inequality in general and with social gradients in treatment outcomes for children with behavior problems. However, there is limited evidence concerning cumulative risk-the accumulation of social and economic disadvantages in a family-and whether cumulative risk moderates the outcomes of evidence-based parent training interventions. We used data from two randomized controlled trials evaluating high-intensity ( n  = 137) and low-intensity ( n  = 216) versions of Parent Management Training-Oregon (PMTO) with a 50:50 allocation between participants receiving PMTO interventions or regular care. A nine-item family cumulative risk index tapping socioeconomic resources and parental health was constructed to assess the family's exposure to risk. Autoregressive structured equation models (SEM) were run to investigate whether cumulative risk moderated child behaviors at post-treatment and follow-up (6 months). Our results showed opposite social gradients for the treatment conditions: the children exposed to cumulative risk in a pooled sample of both PMTO groups displayed lower levels of behavior problems, whereas children with identical risk exposures who received regular care experienced more problems. Furthermore, our results indicated that the social gradients differed between PMTO interventions: children exposed to cumulative risk in the low-intensity (five sessions) Brief Parent Training fared equally well as their high-resource counterparts, whereas children exposed to cumulative risk in the high-intensity PMTO (12 sessions) experienced vastly better treatment effects. Providing evidence-based parent training seem to be an effective way to counteract health care inequality, and the more intensive PMTO treatment seemed to be a particularly effective way to help families with cumulative risk.

  5. Cumulative effects of prenatal-exposure to exogenous chemicals and psychosocial stress on fetal growth: Systematic-review of the human and animal evidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vesterinen, Hanna M; Morello-Frosch, Rachel; Sen, Saunak; Zeise, Lauren; Woodruff, Tracey J

    2017-01-01

    Adverse effects of prenatal stress or environmental chemical exposures on fetal growth are well described, yet their combined effect remains unclear. To conduct a systematic review on the combined impact and interaction of prenatal exposure to stress and chemicals on developmental outcomes. We used the first three steps of the Navigation Guide systematic review. We wrote a protocol, performed a robust literature search to identify relevant animal and human studies and extracted data on developmental outcomes. For the most common outcome (fetal growth), we evaluated risk of bias, calculated effect sizes for main effects of individual and combined exposures, and performed a random effects meta-analysis of those studies reporting on odds of low birthweight (LBW) by smoking and socioeconomic status (SES). We identified 17 human- and 22 animal-studies of combined chemical and stress exposures and fetal growth. Human studies tended to have a lower risk of bias across nine domains. Generally, we found stronger effects for chemicals than stress, and these exposures were associated with reduced fetal growth in the low-stress group and the association was often greater in high stress groups, with limited evidence of effect modification. We found smoking associated with significantly increased odds of LBW, with a greater effect for high stress (low SES; OR 4.75 (2.46-9.16)) compared to low stress (high SES; OR 1.95 (95% CI 1.53-2.48)). Animal studies generally had a high risk of bias with no significant combined effect or effect modification. We found that despite concern for the combined effects of environmental chemicals and stress, this is still an under-studied topic, though limited available human studies indicate chemical exposures exert stronger effects than stress, and this effect is generally larger in the presence of stress.

  6. A paradox of cumulative culture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kobayashi, Yutaka; Wakano, Joe Yuichiro; Ohtsuki, Hisashi

    2015-08-21

    Culture can grow cumulatively if socially learnt behaviors are improved by individual learning before being passed on to the next generation. Previous authors showed that this kind of learning strategy is unlikely to be evolutionarily stable in the presence of a trade-off between learning and reproduction. This is because culture is a public good that is freely exploited by any member of the population in their model (cultural social dilemma). In this paper, we investigate the effect of vertical transmission (transmission from parents to offspring), which decreases the publicness of culture, on the evolution of cumulative culture in both infinite and finite population models. In the infinite population model, we confirm that culture accumulates largely as long as transmission is purely vertical. It turns out, however, that introduction of even slight oblique transmission drastically reduces the equilibrium level of culture. Even more surprisingly, if the population size is finite, culture hardly accumulates even under purely vertical transmission. This occurs because stochastic extinction due to random genetic drift prevents a learning strategy from accumulating enough culture. Overall, our theoretical results suggest that introducing vertical transmission alone does not really help solve the cultural social dilemma problem. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. CUMBIN - CUMULATIVE BINOMIAL PROGRAMS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowerman, P. N.

    1994-01-01

    The cumulative binomial program, CUMBIN, is one of a set of three programs which calculate cumulative binomial probability distributions for arbitrary inputs. The three programs, CUMBIN, NEWTONP (NPO-17556), and CROSSER (NPO-17557), can be used independently of one another. CUMBIN can be used by statisticians and users of statistical procedures, test planners, designers, and numerical analysts. The program has been used for reliability/availability calculations. CUMBIN calculates the probability that a system of n components has at least k operating if the probability that any one operating is p and the components are independent. Equivalently, this is the reliability of a k-out-of-n system having independent components with common reliability p. CUMBIN can evaluate the incomplete beta distribution for two positive integer arguments. CUMBIN can also evaluate the cumulative F distribution and the negative binomial distribution, and can determine the sample size in a test design. CUMBIN is designed to work well with all integer values 0 < k <= n. To run the program, the user simply runs the executable version and inputs the information requested by the program. The program is not designed to weed out incorrect inputs, so the user must take care to make sure the inputs are correct. Once all input has been entered, the program calculates and lists the result. The CUMBIN program is written in C. It was developed on an IBM AT with a numeric co-processor using Microsoft C 5.0. Because the source code is written using standard C structures and functions, it should compile correctly with most C compilers. The program format is interactive. It has been implemented under DOS 3.2 and has a memory requirement of 26K. CUMBIN was developed in 1988.

  8. Cumulation of light nuclei

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baldin, A.M.; Bondarev, V.K.; Golovanov, L.B.

    1977-01-01

    Limit fragmentation of light nuclei (deuterium, helium) bombarded with 8,6 GeV/c protons was investigated. Fragments (pions, protons and deuterons) were detected within the emission angle 50-150 deg with regard to primary protons and within the pulse range 150-180 MeV/c. By the kinematics of collision of a primary proton with a target at rest the fragments observed correspond to a target mass upto 3 GeV. Thus, the data obtained correspond to teh cumulation upto the third order

  9. CROSSER - CUMULATIVE BINOMIAL PROGRAMS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowerman, P. N.

    1994-01-01

    The cumulative binomial program, CROSSER, is one of a set of three programs which calculate cumulative binomial probability distributions for arbitrary inputs. The three programs, CROSSER, CUMBIN (NPO-17555), and NEWTONP (NPO-17556), can be used independently of one another. CROSSER can be used by statisticians and users of statistical procedures, test planners, designers, and numerical analysts. The program has been used for reliability/availability calculations. CROSSER calculates the point at which the reliability of a k-out-of-n system equals the common reliability of the n components. It is designed to work well with all integer values 0 < k <= n. To run the program, the user simply runs the executable version and inputs the information requested by the program. The program is not designed to weed out incorrect inputs, so the user must take care to make sure the inputs are correct. Once all input has been entered, the program calculates and lists the result. It also lists the number of iterations of Newton's method required to calculate the answer within the given error. The CROSSER program is written in C. It was developed on an IBM AT with a numeric co-processor using Microsoft C 5.0. Because the source code is written using standard C structures and functions, it should compile correctly with most C compilers. The program format is interactive. It has been implemented under DOS 3.2 and has a memory requirement of 26K. CROSSER was developed in 1988.

  10. Modeling of cumulative release on long term leaching behaviour of selected oil sludge from crude oil terminal and petroleum refining plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mohd Fadzil, S.; Khoo, K.S.; Sarmani, S.; Majid, A.Ab.; Hamzah, A.

    2013-01-01

    Management of oil sludge containing environmentally toxic elements is a major problem in crude oil processing industry. Oil sludge samples from the petroleum refinery plant in Melaka and crude oil terminal in Sarawak were analysed. The aim of present work is to study long term leaching behaviour of arsenic (As), cobalt (Co), chromium (Cr) and zinc (Zn) from oil sludge. Tank leaching test was carried out and the samples were analysed using inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry (ICP-MS). The results were studied using LeachXS software to plot the graphs of elements concentration in order to study the leaching behaviour of toxic elements in oil sludge. The long term leaching (100 years) modeling was calculated using equations referred to National Institute of Public Health and the Environment Bilthoven (RIVM) and the results were plotted for cumulative release in different areas of oil sludge. Tank leaching test of the oil sludge samples from petroleum refinery plant in Melaka showed concentrations of As, Co, Cr and Zn ranging from 0.205 to 1.102, 0.031-0.454, 0.016-0.086 and 0.409-8.238 mg/l, respectively while the concentrations of As, Co, Cr and Zn in oil sludge samples from crude oil terminal in Sarawak were in the range of 0.002-0.089, 0.001-0.033, 0.006-1.016 and 0.100-2.744 mg/l, respectively. On the other hand, results on cumulative release from the modeling of long term leaching (100 years) showed that As, Co, Cr and Zn concentrations were proportional to the quantity of oil sludge. In conclusion, during extrapolation of release of toxic elements using the data in the laboratory, several other factors were taken into account to suit environmental conditions such as soil moisture, the negative logarithm of the effective diffusion coefficient (pD e ) and temperature, while the long-term behaviour of As, Co, Cr and Zn was proportional to the quantity of oil sludge to be disposed off. (author)

  11. Cumulative environmental effects. Summary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2012-01-01

    This report presents a compilation of knowledge about the state of the environment and human activity in the Norwegian part of the North Sea and Skagerrak. The report gives an overview of pressures and impacts on the environment from normal activity and in the event of accidents. This is used to assess the cumulative environmental effects, which factors have most impact and where the impacts are greatest, and to indicate which problems are expected to be most serious in the future. The report is intended to provide relevant information that can be used in the management of the marine area in the future. It also provides input for the identification of environmental targets and management measures for the North Sea and Skagerrak.(Author)

  12. Cumulative environmental effects. Summary

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2012-07-01

    This report presents a compilation of knowledge about the state of the environment and human activity in the Norwegian part of the North Sea and Skagerrak. The report gives an overview of pressures and impacts on the environment from normal activity and in the event of accidents. This is used to assess the cumulative environmental effects, which factors have most impact and where the impacts are greatest, and to indicate which problems are expected to be most serious in the future. The report is intended to provide relevant information that can be used in the management of the marine area in the future. It also provides input for the identification of environmental targets and management measures for the North Sea and Skagerrak.(Author)

  13. NEWTONP - CUMULATIVE BINOMIAL PROGRAMS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowerman, P. N.

    1994-01-01

    The cumulative binomial program, NEWTONP, is one of a set of three programs which calculate cumulative binomial probability distributions for arbitrary inputs. The three programs, NEWTONP, CUMBIN (NPO-17555), and CROSSER (NPO-17557), can be used independently of one another. NEWTONP can be used by statisticians and users of statistical procedures, test planners, designers, and numerical analysts. The program has been used for reliability/availability calculations. NEWTONP calculates the probably p required to yield a given system reliability V for a k-out-of-n system. It can also be used to determine the Clopper-Pearson confidence limits (either one-sided or two-sided) for the parameter p of a Bernoulli distribution. NEWTONP can determine Bayesian probability limits for a proportion (if the beta prior has positive integer parameters). It can determine the percentiles of incomplete beta distributions with positive integer parameters. It can also determine the percentiles of F distributions and the midian plotting positions in probability plotting. NEWTONP is designed to work well with all integer values 0 < k <= n. To run the program, the user simply runs the executable version and inputs the information requested by the program. NEWTONP is not designed to weed out incorrect inputs, so the user must take care to make sure the inputs are correct. Once all input has been entered, the program calculates and lists the result. It also lists the number of iterations of Newton's method required to calculate the answer within the given error. The NEWTONP program is written in C. It was developed on an IBM AT with a numeric co-processor using Microsoft C 5.0. Because the source code is written using standard C structures and functions, it should compile correctly with most C compilers. The program format is interactive. It has been implemented under DOS 3.2 and has a memory requirement of 26K. NEWTONP was developed in 1988.

  14. A Framework for Treating Cumulative Trauma with Art Therapy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naff, Kristina

    2014-01-01

    Cumulative trauma is relatively undocumented in art therapy practice, although there is growing evidence that art therapy provides distinct benefits for resolving various traumas. This qualitative study proposes an art therapy treatment framework for cumulative trauma derived from semi-structured interviews with three art therapists and artistic…

  15. Cumulative radiation effect

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kirk, J.; Gray, W.M.; Watson, E.R.

    1977-01-01

    In five previous papers, the concept of Cumulative Radiation Effect (CRE) has been presented as a scale of accumulative sub-tolerance radiation damage, with a unique value of the CRE describing a specific level of radiation effect. Simple nomographic and tabular methods for the solution of practical problems in radiotherapy are now described. An essential feature of solving a CRE problem is firstly to present it in a concise and readily appreciated form, and, to do this, nomenclature has been introduced to describe schedules and regimes as compactly as possible. Simple algebraic equations have been derived to describe the CRE achieved by multi-schedule regimes. In these equations, the equivalence conditions existing at the junctions between schedules are not explicit and the equations are based on the CREs of the constituent schedules assessed individually without reference to their context in the regime as a whole. This independent evaluation of CREs for each schedule has resulted in a considerable simplification in the calculation of complex problems. The calculations are further simplified by the use of suitable tables and nomograms, so that the mathematics involved is reduced to simple arithmetical operations which require at the most the use of a slide rule but can be done by hand. The order of procedure in the presentation and calculation of CRE problems can be summarised in an evaluation procedure sheet. The resulting simple methods for solving practical problems of any complexity on the CRE-system are demonstrated by a number of examples. (author)

  16. Seasonal climate change patterns due to cumulative CO2 emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Partanen, Antti-Ilari; Leduc, Martin; Damon Matthews, H.

    2017-07-01

    Cumulative CO2 emissions are near linearly related to both global and regional changes in annual-mean surface temperature. These relationships are known as the transient climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions (TCRE) and the regional TCRE (RTCRE), and have been shown to remain approximately constant over a wide range of cumulative emissions. Here, we assessed how well this relationship holds for seasonal patterns of temperature change, as well as for annual-mean and seasonal precipitation patterns. We analyzed an idealized scenario with CO2 concentration growing at an annual rate of 1% using data from 12 Earth system models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Seasonal RTCRE values for temperature varied considerably, with the highest seasonal variation evident in the Arctic, where RTCRE was about 5.5 °C per Tt C for boreal winter and about 2.0 °C per Tt C for boreal summer. Also the precipitation response in the Arctic during boreal winter was stronger than during other seasons. We found that emission-normalized seasonal patterns of temperature change were relatively robust with respect to time, though they were sub-linear with respect to emissions particularly near the Arctic. Moreover, RTCRE patterns for precipitation could not be quantified robustly due to the large internal variability of precipitation. Our results suggest that cumulative CO2 emissions are a useful metric to predict regional and seasonal changes in precipitation and temperature. This extension of the TCRE framework to seasonal and regional climate change is helpful for communicating the link between emissions and climate change to policy-makers and the general public, and is well-suited for impact studies that could make use of estimated regional-scale climate changes that are consistent with the carbon budgets associated with global temperature targets.

  17. Evidence of "Implemented Anticipation" in Mathematising by Beginning Modellers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stillman, Gloria; Brown, Jill P.

    2014-01-01

    Data from open modelling sessions for year 10 and 11 students at an extracurricular modelling event and from a year 9 class participating in a programme of structured modelling of real situations were analysed for evidence of Niss's theoretical construct, "implemented anticipation," during mathematisation. Evidence was found for all…

  18. Cumulative radiation effect

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kirk, J.; Cain, O.; Gray, W.M.

    1977-01-01

    Cumulative Radiation Effect (CRE) represents a scale of accumulative sub-tolerance radiation damage, with a unique value of the CRE describing a specific level of radiation effect. Computer calculations have been used to simplify the evaluation of problems associated with the applications of the CRE-system in radiotherapy. In a general appraisal of the applications of computers to the CRE-system, the various problems encountered in clinical radiotherapy have been categorised into those involving the evaluation of a CRE at a point in tissue and those involving the calculation of CRE distributions. As a general guide, the computer techniques adopted at the Glasgow Institute of Radiotherapeutics for the solution of CRE problems are presented, and consist basically of a package of three interactive programs for point CRE calculations and a Fortran program which calculates CRE distributions for iso-effect treatment planning. Many examples are given to demonstrate the applications of these programs, and special emphasis has been laid on the problem of treating a point in tissue with different doses per fraction on alternate treatment days. The wide range of possible clinical applications of the CRE-system has been outlined and described under the categories of routine clinical applications, retrospective and prospective surveys of patient treatment, and experimental and theoretical research. Some of these applications such as the results of surveys and studies of time optimisation of treatment schedules could have far-reaching consequences and lead to significant improvements in treatment and cure rates with the minimum damage to normal tissue. (author)

  19. Secant cumulants and toric geometry

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Michalek, M.; Oeding, L.; Zwiernik, P.W.

    2012-01-01

    We study the secant line variety of the Segre product of projective spaces using special cumulant coordinates adapted for secant varieties. We show that the secant variety is covered by open normal toric varieties. We prove that in cumulant coordinates its ideal is generated by binomial quadrics. We

  20. Cumulative Intracranial Tumor Volume Augments the Prognostic Value of Diagnosis-Specific Graded Prognostic Assessment Model for Survival in Patients with Melanoma Cerebral Metastases

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hirshman, Brian R; Wilson, Bayard R; Ali, Mir Amaan

    2018-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The diagnosis-specific graded prognostic assessment scale (ds-GPA) for patients with melanoma brain metastasis (BM) utilizes only 2 key prognostic variables: Karnofsky performance status and the number of intracranial metastases. We wished to determine whether inclusion of cumulative ...

  1. Integrating LANDIS model and a multi-criteria decision-making approach to evaluate cumulative effects of forest management in the Missouri Ozarks, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zong Bo Shang; Hong S. He; Weimin Xi; Stephen R. Shifley; Brian J. Palik

    2012-01-01

    Public forest management requires consideration of numerous objectives including protecting ecosystem health, sustaining habitats for native communities, providing sustainable forest products, and providing noncommodity ecosystem services. It is difficult to evaluate the long-term, cumulative effects and tradeoffs these and other associated management objectives. To...

  2. Fracture flow modelling. Proof of evidence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hencher, S.R.

    1996-01-01

    Proof of Evidence by an expert witness is presented in support of the case by Friends of the Earth (FOE) against the proposed construction by UK Nirex Ltd of an underground Rock Characterisation Facility (RCF) at a site in the Sellafield area. The RCF is part of an investigation by Nirex into a suitable site for an underground repository for the disposal of radioactive waste. The objections were raised at a Planning Inquiry in 1995. The evidence points out that current understanding of the factors which control flow through a network of interconnecting fractures, such as that at the Sellafield site, is at a very early stage of development. Neither are the methods of investigation and analysis required for a post-closure performance assessment (PCPA) for a repository well developed. These issues are being investigated in international underground research laboratories but the proposed RCF is intended to be confirmatory rather than experimental. (23 references). (UK)

  3. Decision analysis with cumulative prospect theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bayoumi, A M; Redelmeier, D A

    2000-01-01

    Individuals sometimes express preferences that do not follow expected utility theory. Cumulative prospect theory adjusts for some phenomena by using decision weights rather than probabilities when analyzing a decision tree. The authors examined how probability transformations from cumulative prospect theory might alter a decision analysis of a prophylactic therapy in AIDS, eliciting utilities from patients with HIV infection (n = 75) and calculating expected outcomes using an established Markov model. They next focused on transformations of three sets of probabilities: 1) the probabilities used in calculating standard-gamble utility scores; 2) the probabilities of being in discrete Markov states; 3) the probabilities of transitioning between Markov states. The same prophylaxis strategy yielded the highest quality-adjusted survival under all transformations. For the average patient, prophylaxis appeared relatively less advantageous when standard-gamble utilities were transformed. Prophylaxis appeared relatively more advantageous when state probabilities were transformed and relatively less advantageous when transition probabilities were transformed. Transforming standard-gamble and transition probabilities simultaneously decreased the gain from prophylaxis by almost half. Sensitivity analysis indicated that even near-linear probability weighting transformations could substantially alter quality-adjusted survival estimates. The magnitude of benefit estimated in a decision-analytic model can change significantly after using cumulative prospect theory. Incorporating cumulative prospect theory into decision analysis can provide a form of sensitivity analysis and may help describe when people deviate from expected utility theory.

  4. The challenge of cumulative impacts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Masden, Elisabeth

    2011-07-01

    Full text: As governments pledge to combat climate change, wind turbines are becoming a common feature of terrestrial and marine environments. Although wind power is a renewable energy source and a means of reducing carbon emissions, there is a need to ensure that the wind farms themselves do not damage the environment. There is particular concern over the impacts of wind farms on bird populations, and with increasing numbers of wind farm proposals, the concern focuses on cumulative impacts. Individually, a wind farm, or indeed any activity/action, may have minor effects on the environment, but collectively these may be significant, potentially greater than the sum of the individual parts acting alone. Cumulative impact assessment is a legislative requirement of environmental impact assessment but such assessments are rarely adequate restricting the acquisition of basic knowledge about the cumulative impacts of wind farms on bird populations. Reasons for this are numerous but a recurring theme is the lack of clear definitions and guidance on how to perform cumulative assessments. Here we present a conceptual framework and include illustrative examples to demonstrate how the framework can be used to improve the planning and execution of cumulative impact assessments. The core concept is that explicit definitions of impacts, actions and scales of assessment are required to reduce uncertainty in the process of assessment and improve communication between stake holders. Only when it is clear what has been included within a cumulative assessment, is it possible to make comparisons between developments. Our framework requires improved legislative guidance on the actions to include in assessments, and advice on the appropriate baselines against which to assess impacts. Cumulative impacts are currently considered on restricted scales (spatial and temporal) relating to individual development assessments. We propose that benefits would be gained from elevating cumulative

  5. Towards Trustable Digital Evidence with PKIDEV: PKI Based Digital Evidence Verification Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uzunay, Yusuf; Incebacak, Davut; Bicakci, Kemal

    How to Capture and Preserve Digital Evidence Securely? For the investigation and prosecution of criminal activities that involve computers, digital evidence collected in the crime scene has a vital importance. On one side, it is a very challenging task for forensics professionals to collect them without any loss or damage. On the other, there is the second problem of providing the integrity and authenticity in order to achieve legal acceptance in a court of law. By conceiving digital evidence simply as one instance of digital data, it is evident that modern cryptography offers elegant solutions for this second problem. However, to our knowledge, there is not any previous work proposing a systematic model having a holistic view to address all the related security problems in this particular case of digital evidence verification. In this paper, we present PKIDEV (Public Key Infrastructure based Digital Evidence Verification model) as an integrated solution to provide security for the process of capturing and preserving digital evidence. PKIDEV employs, inter alia, cryptographic techniques like digital signatures and secure time-stamping as well as latest technologies such as GPS and EDGE. In our study, we also identify the problems public-key cryptography brings when it is applied to the verification of digital evidence.

  6. An evaluation paradigm for cumulative impact analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stakhiv, Eugene Z.

    1988-09-01

    Cumulative impact analysis is examined from a conceptual decision-making perspective, focusing on its implicit and explicit purposes as suggested within the policy and procedures for environmental impact analysis of the National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 (NEPA) and its implementing regulations. In this article it is also linked to different evaluation and decision-making conventions, contrasting a regulatory context with a comprehensive planning framework. The specific problems that make the application of cumulative impact analysis a virtually intractable evaluation requirement are discussed in connection with the federal regulation of wetlands uses. The relatively familiar US Army Corps of Engineers' (the Corps) permit program, in conjunction with the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) responsibilities in managing its share of the Section 404 regulatory program requirements, is used throughout as the realistic context for highlighting certain pragmatic evaluation aspects of cumulative impact assessment. To understand the purposes of cumulative impact analysis (CIA), a key distinction must be made between the implied comprehensive and multiobjective evaluation purposes of CIA, promoted through the principles and policies contained in NEPA, and the more commonly conducted and limited assessment of cumulative effects (ACE), which focuses largely on the ecological effects of human actions. Based on current evaluation practices within the Corps' and EPA's permit programs, it is shown that the commonly used screening approach to regulating wetlands uses is not compatible with the purposes of CIA, nor is the environmental impact statement (EIS) an appropriate vehicle for evaluating the variety of objectives and trade-offs needed as part of CIA. A heuristic model that incorporates the basic elements of CIA is developed, including the idea of trade-offs among social, economic, and environmental protection goals carried out within the context of environmental

  7. Fuzzy set theory for cumulative trauma prediction

    OpenAIRE

    Fonseca, Daniel J.; Merritt, Thomas W.; Moynihan, Gary P.

    2001-01-01

    A widely used fuzzy reasoning algorithm was modified and implemented via an expert system to assess the potential risk of employee repetitive strain injury in the workplace. This fuzzy relational model, known as the Priority First Cover Algorithm (PFC), was adapted to describe the relationship between 12 cumulative trauma disorders (CTDs) of the upper extremity, and 29 identified risk factors. The algorithm, which finds a suboptimal subset from a group of variables based on the criterion of...

  8. Flipped classroom model for learning evidence-based medicine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rucker, Sydney Y; Ozdogan, Zulfukar; Al Achkar, Morhaf

    2017-01-01

    Journal club (JC), as a pedagogical strategy, has long been used in graduate medical education (GME). As evidence-based medicine (EBM) becomes a mainstay in GME, traditional models of JC present a number of insufficiencies and call for novel models of instruction. A flipped classroom model appears to be an ideal strategy to meet the demands to connect evidence to practice while creating engaged, culturally competent, and technologically literate physicians. In this article, we describe a novel model of flipped classroom in JC. We present the flow of learning activities during the online and face-to-face instruction, and then we highlight specific considerations for implementing a flipped classroom model. We show that implementing a flipped classroom model to teach EBM in a residency program not only is possible but also may constitute improved learning opportunity for residents. Follow-up work is needed to evaluate the effectiveness of this model on both learning and clinical practice.

  9. A Model for Evidence Accumulation in the Lexical Decision Task

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan; Steyvers, Mark; Raaijmakers, Jeroen G. W.; Shiffrin, Richard M.; van Rijn, Hedderik; Zeelenberg, Rene

    2004-01-01

    We present a new model for lexical decision, REM-LD, that is based on REM theory (e.g., Shiffrin & Steyvers, 1997). REM-LD uses a principled (i.e., Bayes' rule) decision process that simultaneously considers the diagnosticity of the evidence for the 'WORD' response and the 'NONWORD' response. The model calculates the odds ratio that the presented…

  10. Higher order cumulants in colorless partonic plasma

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cherif, S. [Sciences and Technologies Department, University of Ghardaia, Ghardaia, Algiers (Algeria); Laboratoire de Physique et de Mathématiques Appliquées (LPMA), ENS-Kouba (Bachir El-Ibrahimi), Algiers (Algeria); Ahmed, M. A. A. [Department of Physics, College of Science, Taibah University Al-Madinah Al-Mounawwarah KSA (Saudi Arabia); Department of Physics, Taiz University in Turba, Taiz (Yemen); Laboratoire de Physique et de Mathématiques Appliquées (LPMA), ENS-Kouba (Bachir El-Ibrahimi), Algiers (Algeria); Ladrem, M., E-mail: mladrem@yahoo.fr [Department of Physics, College of Science, Taibah University Al-Madinah Al-Mounawwarah KSA (Saudi Arabia); Laboratoire de Physique et de Mathématiques Appliquées (LPMA), ENS-Kouba (Bachir El-Ibrahimi), Algiers (Algeria)

    2016-06-10

    Any physical system considered to study the QCD deconfinement phase transition certainly has a finite volume, so the finite size effects are inevitably present. This renders the location of the phase transition and the determination of its order as an extremely difficult task, even in the simplest known cases. In order to identify and locate the colorless QCD deconfinement transition point in finite volume T{sub 0}(V), a new approach based on the finite-size cumulant expansion of the order parameter and the ℒ{sub m,n}-Method is used. We have shown that both cumulants of higher order and their ratios, associated to the thermodynamical fluctuations of the order parameter, in QCD deconfinement phase transition behave in a particular enough way revealing pronounced oscillations in the transition region. The sign structure and the oscillatory behavior of these in the vicinity of the deconfinement phase transition point might be a sensitive probe and may allow one to elucidate their relation to the QCD phase transition point. In the context of our model, we have shown that the finite volume transition point is always associated to the appearance of a particular point in whole higher order cumulants under consideration.

  11. AIC, BIC, Bayesian evidence against the interacting dark energy model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Szydlowski, Marek [Jagiellonian University, Astronomical Observatory, Krakow (Poland); Jagiellonian University, Mark Kac Complex Systems Research Centre, Krakow (Poland); Krawiec, Adam [Jagiellonian University, Institute of Economics, Finance and Management, Krakow (Poland); Jagiellonian University, Mark Kac Complex Systems Research Centre, Krakow (Poland); Kurek, Aleksandra [Jagiellonian University, Astronomical Observatory, Krakow (Poland); Kamionka, Michal [University of Wroclaw, Astronomical Institute, Wroclaw (Poland)

    2015-01-01

    Recent astronomical observations have indicated that the Universe is in a phase of accelerated expansion. While there are many cosmological models which try to explain this phenomenon, we focus on the interacting ΛCDM model where an interaction between the dark energy and dark matter sectors takes place. This model is compared to its simpler alternative - the ΛCDM model. To choose between these models the likelihood ratio test was applied as well as the model comparison methods (employing Occam's principle): the Akaike information criterion (AIC), the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) and the Bayesian evidence. Using the current astronomical data: type Ia supernova (Union2.1), h(z), baryon acoustic oscillation, the Alcock- Paczynski test, and the cosmic microwave background data, we evaluated both models. The analyses based on the AIC indicated that there is less support for the interacting ΛCDM model when compared to the ΛCDM model, while those based on the BIC indicated that there is strong evidence against it in favor of the ΛCDM model. Given the weak or almost non-existing support for the interacting ΛCDM model and bearing in mind Occam's razor we are inclined to reject this model. (orig.)

  12. AIC, BIC, Bayesian evidence against the interacting dark energy model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Szydłowski, Marek, E-mail: marek.szydlowski@uj.edu.pl [Astronomical Observatory, Jagiellonian University, Orla 171, 30-244, Kraków (Poland); Mark Kac Complex Systems Research Centre, Jagiellonian University, Reymonta 4, 30-059, Kraków (Poland); Krawiec, Adam, E-mail: adam.krawiec@uj.edu.pl [Institute of Economics, Finance and Management, Jagiellonian University, Łojasiewicza 4, 30-348, Kraków (Poland); Mark Kac Complex Systems Research Centre, Jagiellonian University, Reymonta 4, 30-059, Kraków (Poland); Kurek, Aleksandra, E-mail: alex@oa.uj.edu.pl [Astronomical Observatory, Jagiellonian University, Orla 171, 30-244, Kraków (Poland); Kamionka, Michał, E-mail: kamionka@astro.uni.wroc.pl [Astronomical Institute, University of Wrocław, ul. Kopernika 11, 51-622, Wrocław (Poland)

    2015-01-14

    Recent astronomical observations have indicated that the Universe is in a phase of accelerated expansion. While there are many cosmological models which try to explain this phenomenon, we focus on the interacting ΛCDM model where an interaction between the dark energy and dark matter sectors takes place. This model is compared to its simpler alternative—the ΛCDM model. To choose between these models the likelihood ratio test was applied as well as the model comparison methods (employing Occam’s principle): the Akaike information criterion (AIC), the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) and the Bayesian evidence. Using the current astronomical data: type Ia supernova (Union2.1), h(z), baryon acoustic oscillation, the Alcock–Paczynski test, and the cosmic microwave background data, we evaluated both models. The analyses based on the AIC indicated that there is less support for the interacting ΛCDM model when compared to the ΛCDM model, while those based on the BIC indicated that there is strong evidence against it in favor of the ΛCDM model. Given the weak or almost non-existing support for the interacting ΛCDM model and bearing in mind Occam’s razor we are inclined to reject this model.

  13. AIC, BIC, Bayesian evidence against the interacting dark energy model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Szydlowski, Marek; Krawiec, Adam; Kurek, Aleksandra; Kamionka, Michal

    2015-01-01

    Recent astronomical observations have indicated that the Universe is in a phase of accelerated expansion. While there are many cosmological models which try to explain this phenomenon, we focus on the interacting ΛCDM model where an interaction between the dark energy and dark matter sectors takes place. This model is compared to its simpler alternative - the ΛCDM model. To choose between these models the likelihood ratio test was applied as well as the model comparison methods (employing Occam's principle): the Akaike information criterion (AIC), the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) and the Bayesian evidence. Using the current astronomical data: type Ia supernova (Union2.1), h(z), baryon acoustic oscillation, the Alcock- Paczynski test, and the cosmic microwave background data, we evaluated both models. The analyses based on the AIC indicated that there is less support for the interacting ΛCDM model when compared to the ΛCDM model, while those based on the BIC indicated that there is strong evidence against it in favor of the ΛCDM model. Given the weak or almost non-existing support for the interacting ΛCDM model and bearing in mind Occam's razor we are inclined to reject this model. (orig.)

  14. Cumulants in perturbation expansions for non-equilibrium field theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fauser, R.

    1995-11-01

    The formulation of perturbation expansions for a quantum field theory of strongly interacting systems in a general non-equilibrium state is discussed. Non-vanishing initial correlations are included in the formulation of the perturbation expansion in terms of cumulants. The cumulants are shown to be the suitable candidate for summing up the perturbation expansion. Also a linked-cluster theorem for the perturbation series with cumulants is presented. Finally a generating functional of the perturbation series with initial correlations is studied. We apply the methods to a simple model of a fermion-boson system. (orig.)

  15. Flipped classroom model for learning evidence-based medicine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rucker SY

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Sydney Y Rucker,1 Zulfukar Ozdogan,1 Morhaf Al Achkar2 1School of Education, Indiana University, Bloomington, IN, 2Department of Family Medicine, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA Abstract: Journal club (JC, as a pedagogical strategy, has long been used in graduate medical education (GME. As evidence-based medicine (EBM becomes a mainstay in GME, traditional models of JC present a number of insufficiencies and call for novel models of instruction. A flipped classroom model appears to be an ideal strategy to meet the demands to connect evidence to practice while creating engaged, culturally competent, and technologically literate physicians. In this article, we describe a novel model of flipped classroom in JC. We present the flow of learning activities during the online and face-to-face instruction, and then we highlight specific considerations for implementing a flipped classroom model. We show that implementing a flipped classroom model to teach EBM in a residency program not only is possible but also may constitute improved learning opportunity for residents. Follow-up work is needed to evaluate the effectiveness of this model on both learning and clinical practice. Keywords: evidence-based medicine, flipped classroom, residency education

  16. Evidence accumulation as a model for lexical selection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anders, R; Riès, S; van Maanen, L; Alario, F X

    2015-11-01

    We propose and demonstrate evidence accumulation as a plausible theoretical and/or empirical model for the lexical selection process of lexical retrieval. A number of current psycholinguistic theories consider lexical selection as a process related to selecting a lexical target from a number of alternatives, which each have varying activations (or signal supports), that are largely resultant of an initial stimulus recognition. We thoroughly present a case for how such a process may be theoretically explained by the evidence accumulation paradigm, and we demonstrate how this paradigm can be directly related or combined with conventional psycholinguistic theory and their simulatory instantiations (generally, neural network models). Then with a demonstrative application on a large new real data set, we establish how the empirical evidence accumulation approach is able to provide parameter results that are informative to leading psycholinguistic theory, and that motivate future theoretical development. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Evaluation of Cumulative Ecosystem Response to Restoration Projects in the Lower Columbia River and Estuary, 2010

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johnson, Gary E.; Diefenderfer, Heida L.; Thom, Ronald M.; Roegner, G. Curtis; Ebberts, Blaine D.; Skalski, John R.; Borde, Amy B.; Dawley, Earl; Coleman, Andre M.; Woodruff, Dana L.; Breithaupt, Stephen A.; Cameron, April; Corbett, C.; Donley, Erin E.; Jay, D. A.; Ke, Yinghai; Leffler, K.; McNeil, C.; Studebaker, Cindy; Tagestad, Jerry D.

    2012-05-01

    This is the seventh and final annual report of a project (2004–2010) addressing evaluation of the cumulative effects of habitat restoration actions in the 235-km-long lower Columbia River and estuary. The project, called the Cumulative Effects (CE) study, was conducted for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Portland District by a collaboration of research agencies led by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. We achieved the primary goal of the CE study to develop a methodology to evaluate the cumulative effects of habitat actions in the Columbia Estuary Ecosystem Restoration Program. We delivered 1) standard monitoring protocols and methods to prioritize monitoring activities; 2) the theoretical and empirical basis for a CE methodology using levels-of-evidence; 3) evaluations of cumulative effects using ecological relationships, geo-referenced data, hydrodynamic modeling, and meta-analyses; and 4) an adaptive management process to coordinate and coalesce restoration efforts in the LCRE. A solid foundation has been laid for future comprehensive evaluations of progress made by the Columbia Estuary Ecosystem Restoration Program to understand, conserve, and restore ecosystems in the lower Columbia River and estuary.

  18. Flipped classroom model for learning evidence-based medicine

    OpenAIRE

    Rucker, Sydney Y; Ozdogan, Zulfukar; Al Achkar, Morhaf

    2017-01-01

    Sydney Y Rucker,1 Zulfukar Ozdogan,1 Morhaf Al Achkar2 1School of Education, Indiana University, Bloomington, IN, 2Department of Family Medicine, School of Medicine, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA Abstract: Journal club (JC), as a pedagogical strategy, has long been used in graduate medical education (GME). As evidence-based medicine (EBM) becomes a mainstay in GME, traditional models of JC present a number of insufficiencies and call for novel models of instruction. A flipped cla...

  19. Compositional models and conditional independence in evidence theory

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Jiroušek, Radim; Vejnarová, Jiřina

    2011-01-01

    Roč. 52, č. 3 (2011), s. 316-334 ISSN 0888-613X Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : Evidence theory * Conditional independence * multidimensional models Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 1.948, year: 2011 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2012/MTR/jirousek-0370515.pdf

  20. New tests of cumulative prospect theory and the priority heuristic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael H. Birnbaum

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available Previous tests of cumulative prospect theory (CPT and of the priority heuristic (PH found evidence contradicting these two models of risky decision making. However, those tests were criticized because they had characteristics that might ``trigger'' use of other heuristics. This paper presents new tests that avoid those characteristics. Expected values of the gambles are nearly equal in each choice. In addition, if a person followed expected value (EV, expected utility (EU, CPT, or PH in these tests, she would shift her preferences in the same direction as shifts in EV or EU. In contrast, the transfer of attention exchange model (TAX and a similarity model predict that people will reverse preferences in the opposite direction. Results contradict the PH, even when PH is modified to include a preliminary similarity evaluation using the PH parameters. New tests of probability-consequence interaction were also conducted. Strong interactions were observed, contrary to PH. These results add to the growing bodies of evidence showing that neither CPT nor PH is an accurate description of risky decision making.

  1. Steps and pips in the history of the cumulative recorder.

    OpenAIRE

    Lattal, Kennon A

    2004-01-01

    From its inception in the 1930s until very recent times, the cumulative recorder was the most widely used measurement instrument in the experimental analysis of behavior. It was an essential instrument in the discovery and analysis of schedules of reinforcement, providing the first real-time analysis of operant response rates and patterns. This review traces the evolution of the cumulative recorder from Skinner's early modified kymographs through various models developed by Skinner and his co...

  2. Lack of evidence for a harmful effect of sodium-glucose co-transporter 2 (SGLT2) inhibitors on fracture risk among type 2 diabetes patients: a network and cumulative meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, H L; Li, D D; Zhang, J J; Hsu, Y H; Wang, T S; Zhai, S D; Song, Y Q

    2016-12-01

    To evaluate the comparative effects of sodium-glucose co-transporter 2 (SGLT2) inhibitors on risk of bone fracture in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). PubMed, EMBASE, CENTRAL and ClinicalTrials.gov were systematically searched from inception to 27 January 2016 to identify randomized controlled trials (RCTs) reporting the outcome of fracture in patients with T2DM treated with SGLT2 inhibitors. Pairwise and network meta-analyses, as well as a cumulative meta-analysis, were performed to calculate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). A total of 38 eligible RCTs (10 canagliflozin, 15 dapagliflozin and 13 empagliflozin) involving 30 384 patients, with follow-ups ranging from 24 to 160 weeks, were included. The fracture event rates were 1.59% in the SGLT2 inhibitor groups and 1.56% in the control groups. The incidence of fracture events was similar among these three SGLT2 inhibitor groups. Compared with placebo, canagliflozin (OR 1.15; 95% CI 0.71-1.88), dapagliflozin (OR 0.68; 95% CI 0.37-1.25) and empagliflozin (OR 0.93; 95% CI 0.74-1.18) were not significantly associated with an increased risk of fracture. Our cumulative meta-analysis indicated the robustness of the null findings with regard to SGLT2 inhibitors. Our meta-analysis based on available RCT data does not support the harmful effect of SGLT2 inhibitors on fractures, although future safety monitoring from RCTs and real-world data with detailed information on bone health is warranted. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  3. Evident?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Plant, Peter

    2012-01-01

    Quality assurance and evidence in career guidance in Europe are often seen as self-evident approaches, but particular interests lie behind......Quality assurance and evidence in career guidance in Europe are often seen as self-evident approaches, but particular interests lie behind...

  4. The Algebra of the Cumulative Percent Operation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berry, Andrew J.

    2002-01-01

    Discusses how to help students avoid some pervasive reasoning errors in solving cumulative percent problems. Discusses the meaning of ."%+b%." the additive inverse of ."%." and other useful applications. Emphasizes the operational aspect of the cumulative percent concept. (KHR)

  5. Adaptive strategies for cumulative cultural learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ehn, Micael; Laland, Kevin

    2012-05-21

    The demographic and ecological success of our species is frequently attributed to our capacity for cumulative culture. However, it is not yet known how humans combine social and asocial learning to generate effective strategies for learning in a cumulative cultural context. Here we explore how cumulative culture influences the relative merits of various pure and conditional learning strategies, including pure asocial and social learning, critical social learning, conditional social learning and individual refiner strategies. We replicate the Rogers' paradox in the cumulative setting. However, our analysis suggests that strategies that resolved Rogers' paradox in a non-cumulative setting may not necessarily evolve in a cumulative setting, thus different strategies will optimize cumulative and non-cumulative cultural learning. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. 32 CFR 651.16 - Cumulative impacts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 32 National Defense 4 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 true Cumulative impacts. 651.16 Section 651.16... § 651.16 Cumulative impacts. (a) NEPA analyses must assess cumulative effects, which are the impact on the environment resulting from the incremental impact of the action when added to other past, present...

  7. Psychometric properties of the Cumulated Ambulation Score

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ferriero, Giorgio; Kristensen, Morten T; Invernizzi, Marco

    2018-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: In the geriatric population, independent mobility is a key factor in determining readiness for discharge following acute hospitalization. The Cumulated Ambulation Score (CAS) is a potentially valuable score that allows day-to-day measurements of basic mobility. The CAS was developed...... and validated in older patients with hip fracture as an early postoperative predictor of short-term outcome, but it is also used to assess geriatric in-patients with acute medical illness. Despite the fast- accumulating literature on the CAS, to date no systematic review synthesizing its psychometric properties....... Of 49 studies identified, 17 examined the psychometric properties of the CAS. EVIDENCE SYNTHESIS: Most papers dealt with patients after hip fracture surgery, and only 4 studies assessed the CAS psychometric characteristics also in geriatric in-patients with acute medical illness. Two versions of CAS...

  8. No Evidence for Extensions to the Standard Cosmological Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heavens, Alan; Fantaye, Yabebal; Sellentin, Elena; Eggers, Hans; Hosenie, Zafiirah; Kroon, Steve; Mootoovaloo, Arrykrishna

    2017-09-01

    We compute the Bayesian evidence for models considered in the main analysis of Planck cosmic microwave background data. By utilizing carefully defined nearest-neighbor distances in parameter space, we reuse the Monte Carlo Markov chains already produced for parameter inference to compute Bayes factors B for many different model-data set combinations. The standard 6-parameter flat cold dark matter model with a cosmological constant (Λ CDM ) is favored over all other models considered, with curvature being mildly favored only when cosmic microwave background lensing is not included. Many alternative models are strongly disfavored by the data, including primordial correlated isocurvature models (ln B =-7.8 ), nonzero scalar-to-tensor ratio (ln B =-4.3 ), running of the spectral index (ln B =-4.7 ), curvature (ln B =-3.6 ), nonstandard numbers of neutrinos (ln B =-3.1 ), nonstandard neutrino masses (ln B =-3.2 ), nonstandard lensing potential (ln B =-4.6 ), evolving dark energy (ln B =-3.2 ), sterile neutrinos (ln B =-6.9 ), and extra sterile neutrinos with a nonzero scalar-to-tensor ratio (ln B =-10.8 ). Other models are less strongly disfavored with respect to flat Λ CDM . As with all analyses based on Bayesian evidence, the final numbers depend on the widths of the parameter priors. We adopt the priors used in the Planck analysis, while performing a prior sensitivity analysis. Our quantitative conclusion is that extensions beyond the standard cosmological model are disfavored by Planck data. Only when newer Hubble constant measurements are included does Λ CDM become disfavored, and only mildly, compared with a dynamical dark energy model (ln B ˜+2 ).

  9. Evidence-based models of care for people with epilepsy.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Fitzsimons, Mary

    2012-02-01

    Advances in medical science and technology, together with improved medical and nursing care, are continuously improving health outcomes in chronic illness, including epilepsy. The consequent increasing diagnostic and therapeutic complexity is placing a burgeoning strain on health care systems. In response, an international move to transform chronic disease management (CDM) aims to optimize the quality and safety of care while containing health care costs. CDM models recommend: integration of care across organizational boundaries that is supported with information and communication technology; patient self-management; and guideline implementation to promote standardized care. Evidence of the effectiveness of CDM models in epilepsy care is presented in this review article.

  10. Completing the Remedial Sequence and College-Level Credit-Bearing Math: Comparing Binary, Cumulative, and Continuation Ratio Logistic Regression Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davidson, J. Cody

    2016-01-01

    Mathematics is the most common subject area of remedial need and the majority of remedial math students never pass a college-level credit-bearing math class. The majorities of studies that investigate this phenomenon are conducted at community colleges and use some type of regression model; however, none have used a continuation ratio model. The…

  11. Business models of micro businesses: Empirical evidence from creative industries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pfeifer Sanja

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Business model describes how a business identifies and creates value for customers and how it organizes itself to capture some of this value in a profitable manner. Previous studies of business models in creative industries have only recently identified the unresolved issues in this field of research. The main objective of this article is to analyse the structure and diversity of business models and to deduce how these components interact or change in the context of micro and small businesses in creative services such as advertising, architecture and design. The article uses a qualitative approach. Case studies and semi-structured, in-depth interviews with six owners/managers of micro businesses in Croatia provide rich data. Structural coding in data analysis has been performed manually. The qualitative analysis has indicative relevance for the assessment and comparison of business models, however, it provides insights into which components of business models seem to be consolidated and which seem to contribute to the diversity of business models in creative industries. The article contributes to the advancement of empirical evidence and conceptual constructs that might lead to more advanced methodological approaches and proposition of the core typologies or classifications of business models in creative industries. In addition, a more detailed mapping of different choices available in managing value creation, value capturing or value networking might be a valuable help for owners/managers who want to change or cross-fertilize their business models.

  12. Cumulative Prospect Theory, Option Returns, and the Variance Premium

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Baele, Lieven; Driessen, Joost; Ebert, Sebastian; Londono Yarce, J.M.; Spalt, Oliver

    The variance premium and the pricing of out-of-the-money (OTM) equity index options are major challenges to standard asset pricing models. We develop a tractable equilibrium model with Cumulative Prospect Theory (CPT) preferences that can overcome both challenges. The key insight is that the

  13. Tests of Cumulative Prospect Theory with graphical displays of probability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael H. Birnbaum

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available Recent research reported evidence that contradicts cumulative prospect theory and the priority heuristic. The same body of research also violates two editing principles of original prospect theory: cancellation (the principle that people delete any attribute that is the same in both alternatives before deciding between them and combination (the principle that people combine branches leading to the same consequence by adding their probabilities. This study was designed to replicate previous results and to test whether the violations of cumulative prospect theory might be eliminated or reduced by using formats for presentation of risky gambles in which cancellation and combination could be facilitated visually. Contrary to the idea that decision behavior contradicting cumulative prospect theory and the priority heuristic would be altered by use of these formats, however, data with two new graphical formats as well as fresh replication data continued to show the patterns of evidence that violate cumulative prospect theory, the priority heuristic, and the editing principles of combination and cancellation. Systematic violations of restricted branch independence also contradicted predictions of ``stripped'' prospect theory (subjectively weighted additive utility without the editing rules.

  14. Likelihood ratio model for classification of forensic evidence

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zadora, G., E-mail: gzadora@ies.krakow.pl [Institute of Forensic Research, Westerplatte 9, 31-033 Krakow (Poland); Neocleous, T., E-mail: tereza@stats.gla.ac.uk [University of Glasgow, Department of Statistics, 15 University Gardens, Glasgow G12 8QW (United Kingdom)

    2009-05-29

    One of the problems of analysis of forensic evidence such as glass fragments, is the determination of their use-type category, e.g. does a glass fragment originate from an unknown window or container? Very small glass fragments arise during various accidents and criminal offences, and could be carried on the clothes, shoes and hair of participants. It is therefore necessary to obtain information on their physicochemical composition in order to solve the classification problem. Scanning Electron Microscopy coupled with an Energy Dispersive X-ray Spectrometer and the Glass Refractive Index Measurement method are routinely used in many forensic institutes for the investigation of glass. A natural form of glass evidence evaluation for forensic purposes is the likelihood ratio-LR = p(E|H{sub 1})/p(E|H{sub 2}). The main aim of this paper was to study the performance of LR models for glass object classification which considered one or two sources of data variability, i.e. between-glass-object variability and(or) within-glass-object variability. Within the proposed model a multivariate kernel density approach was adopted for modelling the between-object distribution and a multivariate normal distribution was adopted for modelling within-object distributions. Moreover, a graphical method of estimating the dependence structure was employed to reduce the highly multivariate problem to several lower-dimensional problems. The performed analysis showed that the best likelihood model was the one which allows to include information about between and within-object variability, and with variables derived from elemental compositions measured by SEM-EDX, and refractive values determined before (RI{sub b}) and after (RI{sub a}) the annealing process, in the form of dRI = log{sub 10}|RI{sub a} - RI{sub b}|. This model gave better results than the model with only between-object variability considered. In addition, when dRI and variables derived from elemental compositions were used, this

  15. Likelihood ratio model for classification of forensic evidence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zadora, G.; Neocleous, T.

    2009-01-01

    One of the problems of analysis of forensic evidence such as glass fragments, is the determination of their use-type category, e.g. does a glass fragment originate from an unknown window or container? Very small glass fragments arise during various accidents and criminal offences, and could be carried on the clothes, shoes and hair of participants. It is therefore necessary to obtain information on their physicochemical composition in order to solve the classification problem. Scanning Electron Microscopy coupled with an Energy Dispersive X-ray Spectrometer and the Glass Refractive Index Measurement method are routinely used in many forensic institutes for the investigation of glass. A natural form of glass evidence evaluation for forensic purposes is the likelihood ratio-LR = p(E|H 1 )/p(E|H 2 ). The main aim of this paper was to study the performance of LR models for glass object classification which considered one or two sources of data variability, i.e. between-glass-object variability and(or) within-glass-object variability. Within the proposed model a multivariate kernel density approach was adopted for modelling the between-object distribution and a multivariate normal distribution was adopted for modelling within-object distributions. Moreover, a graphical method of estimating the dependence structure was employed to reduce the highly multivariate problem to several lower-dimensional problems. The performed analysis showed that the best likelihood model was the one which allows to include information about between and within-object variability, and with variables derived from elemental compositions measured by SEM-EDX, and refractive values determined before (RI b ) and after (RI a ) the annealing process, in the form of dRI = log 10 |RI a - RI b |. This model gave better results than the model with only between-object variability considered. In addition, when dRI and variables derived from elemental compositions were used, this model outperformed two other

  16. Session: What do we know about cumulative or population impacts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kerlinger, Paul; Manville, Al; Kendall, Bill

    2004-09-01

    This session at the Wind Energy and Birds/Bats workshop consisted of a panel discussion followed by a discussion/question and answer period. The panelists were Paul Kerlinger, Curry and Kerlinger, LLC, Al Manville, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, and Bill Kendall, US Geological Service. The panel addressed the potential cumulative impacts of wind turbines on bird and bat populations over time. Panel members gave brief presentations that touched on what is currently known, what laws apply, and the usefulness of population modeling. Topics addressed included which sources of modeling should be included in cumulative impacts, comparison of impacts from different modes of energy generation, as well as what research is still needed regarding cumulative impacts of wind energy development on bird and bat populations.

  17. Off-shell effects in the model of spectator electroproduction of cumulative nucleons; Ehffekty skhoda s massovoj poverkhnosti v modeli spektatornogo obrazovaniya kumulyativnykh nuklonov

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sargsyan, M M

    1992-12-31

    The effects of deeply bound nucleons are considered in the reaction of deuteron quasielastic electro disintegration, where the spectator nucleon and scattered electrons are registered in coincidence. Both, the off-shell influence on the description of nucleon motion in nuclear surrounding and the modification of deeply bound nucleon form - factors are investigated as two aspects of the off-shell effect manifestation. The possibility to control the extent of interacting nucleon binding energy by varying the spectator nucleon kinematic parameters (p{sub s},{theta}{sub s},{phi}{sub s}) is an advantage of the reactions considered. The cross section ratios of these processes are considered under specific kinematical conditions, which allow to investigate unambiguously the manifestations of deeply bound effects. To estimate the extent of the phenomena expected, we present the results of calculation of R ratios in the framework of models that take the off-shell effects into account differently. The effects of bound nucleon form - factor modification are estimated according to the model of mini delocalization, which predicts the bound nucleon swelling in nuclear environment. 28 refs.

  18. Cumulative trauma disorders: A review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iqbal, Zaheen A; Alghadir, Ahmad H

    2017-08-03

    Cumulative trauma disorder (CTD) is a term for various injuries of the musculoskeletal and nervous systems that are caused by repetitive tasks, forceful exertions, vibrations, mechanical compression or sustained postures. Although there are many studies citing incidence of CTDs, there are fewer articles about its etiology, pathology and management. The aim of our study was to discuss the etiology, pathogenesis, prevention and management of CTDs. A literature search was performed using various electronic databases. The search was limited to articles in English language pertaining to randomized clinical trials, cohort studies and systematic reviews of CTDs. A total of 180 papers were identified to be relevant published since 1959. Out of these, 125 papers reported about its incidence and 50 about its conservative treatment. Workplace environment, same task repeatability and little variability, decreased time for rest, increase in expectations are major factors for developing CTDs. Prevention of its etiology and early diagnosis can be the best to decrease its incidence and severity. For effective management of CTDs, its treatment should be divided into Primordial, Primary, Secondary and Tertiary prevention.

  19. Complete cumulative index (1963-1983)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1983-01-01

    This complete cumulative index covers all regular and special issues and supplements published by Atomic Energy Review (AER) during its lifetime (1963-1983). The complete cumulative index consists of six Indexes: the Index of Abstracts, the Subject Index, the Title Index, the Author Index, the Country Index and the Table of Elements Index. The complete cumulative index supersedes the Cumulative Indexes for Volumes 1-7: 1963-1969 (1970), and for Volumes 1-10: 1963-1972 (1972); this Index also finalizes Atomic Energy Review, the publication of which has recently been terminated by the IAEA

  20. Models of Investor Forecasting Behavior — Experimental Evidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Federico Bonetto

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Different forecasting behaviors affect investors’ trading decisions and lead to qualitatively different asset price trajectories. It has been shown in the literature that the weights that investors place on observed asset price changes when forecasting future price changes, and the nature of their confidence when price changes are forecast, determine whether price bubbles, price crashes, and unpredictable price cycles occur. In this paper, we report the results of behavioral experiments involving multiple investors who participated in a market for a virtual asset. Our goal is to study investors’ forecast formation. We conducted three experimental sessions with different participants in each session. We fit different models of forecast formation to the observed data. There is strong evidence that the investors forecast future prices by extrapolating past price changes, even when they know the fundamental value of the asset exactly and the extrapolated forecasts differ significantly from the fundamental value. The rational expectations hypothesis seems inconsistent with the observed forecasts. The forecasting models of all participants that best fit the observed forecasting data were of the type that cause price bubbles and cycles in dynamical systems models, and price bubbles and cycles ended up occurring in all three sessions.

  1. Fatigue crack propagation: Probabilistic models and experimental evidence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lucia, A.C.; Jovanovic, A.

    1987-01-01

    The central aim of the LWR Primary Circuit Component Life Prediction Project, going on at JRC-Ispra, is to develop and check a 'procedure' (encompassing monitoring and inspection, data collection and analysis, prediction) allowing the quantitatives estimation of the accumulation of structural damage and of the residual lifetime. The ongoing activity matches theoretical development and experimentation, the latter being at present essentially based on a test-rig for room-temperature fatigue cycling of 1:5 scaled models of pressure vessels. During Phase I of fatigue testing of vessel R2, different pieces of information coming from material characterization, non-destructive inspection, continuous monitoring, stress analysis, have been merged and used to infere the future behaviour of the structure. The prediction of residual lifetime (cycles to failure), based on the outcomes of the ultrasonic continuous monitoring and made by means of the COVASTOL code, was in quite good agreement with experimental evidence. (orig./HP)

  2. Personality and Depression: Explanatory Models and Review of the Evidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klein, Daniel N.; Kotov, Roman; Bufferd, Sara J.

    2012-01-01

    Understanding the association between personality and depression has implications for elucidating etiology and comorbidity, identifying at-risk individuals, and tailoring treatment. We discuss seven major models that have been proposed to explain the relation between personality and depression, and we review key methodological issues, including study design, the heterogeneity of mood disorders, and the assessment of personality. We then selectively review the extensive empirical literature on the role of personality traits in depression in adults and children. Current evidence suggests that depression is linked to traits such as neuroticism/negative emotionality, extraversion/positive emotionality, and conscientiousness. Moreover, personality characteristics appear to contribute to the onset and course of depression through a variety of pathways. Implications for prevention and prediction of treatment response are discussed, as well as specific considerations to guide future research on the relation between personality and depression. PMID:21166535

  3. Estimating a population cumulative incidence under calendar time trends

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Stefan N; Overgaard, Morten; Andersen, Per K

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The risk of a disease or psychiatric disorder is frequently measured by the age-specific cumulative incidence. Cumulative incidence estimates are often derived in cohort studies with individuals recruited over calendar time and with the end of follow-up governed by a specific date...... by calendar time trends, the total sample Kaplan-Meier and Aalen-Johansen estimators do not provide useful estimates of the general risk in the target population. We present some alternatives to this type of analysis. RESULTS: We show how a proportional hazards model may be used to extrapolate disease risk...... estimates if proportionality is a reasonable assumption. If not reasonable, we instead advocate that a more useful description of the disease risk lies in the age-specific cumulative incidence curves across strata given by time of entry or perhaps just the end of follow-up estimates across all strata...

  4. System-Reliability Cumulative-Binomial Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scheuer, Ernest M.; Bowerman, Paul N.

    1989-01-01

    Cumulative-binomial computer program, NEWTONP, one of set of three programs, calculates cumulative binomial probability distributions for arbitrary inputs. NEWTONP, CUMBIN (NPO-17555), and CROSSER (NPO-17557), used independently of one another. Program finds probability required to yield given system reliability. Used by statisticians and users of statistical procedures, test planners, designers, and numerical analysts. Program written in C.

  5. Common-Reliability Cumulative-Binomial Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scheuer, Ernest, M.; Bowerman, Paul N.

    1989-01-01

    Cumulative-binomial computer program, CROSSER, one of set of three programs, calculates cumulative binomial probability distributions for arbitrary inputs. CROSSER, CUMBIN (NPO-17555), and NEWTONP (NPO-17556), used independently of one another. Point of equality between reliability of system and common reliability of components found. Used by statisticians and users of statistical procedures, test planners, designers, and numerical analysts. Program written in C.

  6. Cumulative human impacts on marine predators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Maxwell, Sara M; Hazen, Elliott L; Bograd, Steven J

    2013-01-01

    Stressors associated with human activities interact in complex ways to affect marine ecosystems, yet we lack spatially explicit assessments of cumulative impacts on ecologically and economically key components such as marine predators. Here we develop a metric of cumulative utilization and impact...

  7. Cumulative Student Loan Debt in Minnesota, 2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams-Wyche, Shaun

    2016-01-01

    To better understand student debt in Minnesota, the Minnesota Office of Higher Education (the Office) gathers information on cumulative student loan debt from Minnesota degree-granting institutions. These data detail the number of students with loans by institution, the cumulative student loan debt incurred at that institution, and the percentage…

  8. Anti-irritants II: Efficacy against cumulative irritation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Flemming; Hedegaard, Kathryn; Petersen, Thomas Kongstad

    2006-01-01

    window of opportunity in which to demonstrate efficacy. Therefore, the effect of AI was studied in a cumulative irritation model by inducing irritant dermatitis with 10 min daily exposures for 5+4 days (no irritation on weekend) to 1% sodium lauryl sulfate on the right and 20% nonanoic acid on the left...

  9. Hierarchical Bayesian parameter estimation for cumulative prospect theory

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nilsson, H.; Rieskamp, J.; Wagenmakers, E.-J.

    2011-01-01

    Cumulative prospect theory (CPT Tversky & Kahneman, 1992) has provided one of the most influential accounts of how people make decisions under risk. CPT is a formal model with parameters that quantify psychological processes such as loss aversion, subjective values of gains and losses, and

  10. Cumulative Development of Attentional Theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Posner, Michael I.

    1982-01-01

    Describes current work in selective attention within a framework of research conducted over the past century. Presents evidence that findings at the level of performance, subjective experience, and neural systems can be linked, even though these findings are not yet reducible to a single theory. (Author/GC)

  11. Cumulative effects of wind turbines. Volume 3: Report on results of consultations on cumulative effects of wind turbines on birds

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2000-07-01

    This report gives details of the consultations held in developing the consensus approach taken in assessing the cumulative effects of wind turbines. Contributions on bird issues, and views of stakeholders, the Countryside Council for Wales, electric utilities, Scottish Natural Heritage, and the National Wind Power Association are reported. The scoping of key species groups, where cumulative effects might be expected, consideration of other developments, the significance of any adverse effects, mitigation, regional capacity assessments, and predictive models are discussed. Topics considered at two stakeholder workshops are outlined in the appendices.

  12. Team-Based Models for End-of-Life Care: An Evidence-Based Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-01-01

    Background End of life refers to the period when people are living with advanced illness that will not stabilize and from which they will not recover and will eventually die. It is not limited to the period immediately before death. Multiple services are required to support people and their families during this time period. The model of care used to deliver these services can affect the quality of the care they receive. Objectives Our objective was to determine whether an optimal team-based model of care exists for service delivery at end of life. In systematically reviewing such models, we considered their core components: team membership, services offered, modes of patient contact, and setting. Data Sources A literature search was performed on October 14, 2013, using Ovid MEDLINE, Ovid MEDLINE In-Process and Other Non-Indexed Citations, Ovid Embase, EBSCO Cumulative Index to Nursing & Allied Health Literature (CINAHL), and EBM Reviews, for studies published from January 1, 2000, to October 14, 2013. Review Methods Abstracts were reviewed by a single reviewer and full-text articles were obtained that met the inclusion criteria. Studies were included if they evaluated a team model of care compared with usual care in an end-of-life adult population. A team was defined as having at least 2 health care disciplines represented. Studies were limited to English publications. A meta-analysis was completed to obtain pooled effect estimates where data permitted. The GRADE quality of the evidence was evaluated. Results Our literature search located 10 randomized controlled trials which, among them, evaluated the following 6 team-based models of care: hospital, direct contact home, direct contact home, indirect contact comprehensive, indirect contact comprehensive, direct contact comprehensive, direct, and early contact Direct contact is when team members see the patient; indirect contact is when they advise another health care practitioner (e.g., a family doctor) who sees

  13. Hyperscaling breakdown and Ising spin glasses: The Binder cumulant

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lundow, P. H.; Campbell, I. A.

    2018-02-01

    Among the Renormalization Group Theory scaling rules relating critical exponents, there are hyperscaling rules involving the dimension of the system. It is well known that in Ising models hyperscaling breaks down above the upper critical dimension. It was shown by Schwartz (1991) that the standard Josephson hyperscaling rule can also break down in Ising systems with quenched random interactions. A related Renormalization Group Theory hyperscaling rule links the critical exponents for the normalized Binder cumulant and the correlation length in the thermodynamic limit. An appropriate scaling approach for analyzing measurements from criticality to infinite temperature is first outlined. Numerical data on the scaling of the normalized correlation length and the normalized Binder cumulant are shown for the canonical Ising ferromagnet model in dimension three where hyperscaling holds, for the Ising ferromagnet in dimension five (so above the upper critical dimension) where hyperscaling breaks down, and then for Ising spin glass models in dimension three where the quenched interactions are random. For the Ising spin glasses there is a breakdown of the normalized Binder cumulant hyperscaling relation in the thermodynamic limit regime, with a return to size independent Binder cumulant values in the finite-size scaling regime around the critical region.

  14. Evidence for criticality in financial data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruiz, G.; de Marcos, A. F.

    2018-01-01

    We provide evidence that cumulative distributions of absolute normalized returns for the 100 American companies with the highest market capitalization, uncover a critical behavior for different time scales Δt. Such cumulative distributions, in accordance with a variety of complex - and financial - systems, can be modeled by the cumulative distribution functions of q-Gaussians, the distribution function that, in the context of nonextensive statistical mechanics, maximizes a non-Boltzmannian entropy. These q-Gaussians are characterized by two parameters, namely ( q, β), that are uniquely defined by Δt. From these dependencies, we find a monotonic relationship between q and β, which can be seen as evidence of criticality. We numerically determine the various exponents which characterize this criticality.

  15. Cumulative risk effects for the development of behaviour difficulties in children and adolescents with special educational needs and disabilities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oldfield, Jeremy; Humphrey, Neil; Hebron, Judith

    2015-01-01

    Research has identified multiple risk factors for the development of behaviour difficulties. What have been less explored are the cumulative effects of exposure to multiple risks on behavioural outcomes, with no study specifically investigating these effects within a population of young people with special educational needs and disabilities (SEND). Furthermore, it is unclear whether a threshold or linear risk model better fits the data for this population. The sample included 2660 children and 1628 adolescents with SEND. Risk factors associated with increases in behaviour difficulties over an 18-month period were summed to create a cumulative risk score, with this explanatory variable being added into a multi-level model. A quadratic term was then added to test the threshold model. There was evidence of a cumulative risk effect, suggesting that exposure to higher numbers of risk factors, regardless of their exact nature, resulted in increased behaviour difficulties. The relationship between risk and behaviour difficulties was non-linear, with exposure to increasing risk having a disproportionate and detrimental impact on behaviour difficulties in child and adolescent models. Interventions aimed at reducing behaviour difficulties need to consider the impact of multiple risk variables. Tailoring interventions towards those exposed to large numbers of risks would be advantageous. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. The Relationship between Gender, Cumulative Adversities and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The Relationship between Gender, Cumulative Adversities and Mental Health of Employees in ... CAs were measured in three forms (family adversities (CAFam), personal adversities ... Age of employees ranged between 18-65 years.

  17. Cumulative cultural learning: Development and diversity

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-01-01

    The complexity and variability of human culture is unmatched by any other species. Humans live in culturally constructed niches filled with artifacts, skills, beliefs, and practices that have been inherited, accumulated, and modified over generations. A causal account of the complexity of human culture must explain its distinguishing characteristics: It is cumulative and highly variable within and across populations. I propose that the psychological adaptations supporting cumulative cultural transmission are universal but are sufficiently flexible to support the acquisition of highly variable behavioral repertoires. This paper describes variation in the transmission practices (teaching) and acquisition strategies (imitation) that support cumulative cultural learning in childhood. Examining flexibility and variation in caregiver socialization and children’s learning extends our understanding of evolution in living systems by providing insight into the psychological foundations of cumulative cultural transmission—the cornerstone of human cultural diversity. PMID:28739945

  18. Cumulative human impacts on marine predators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maxwell, Sara M; Hazen, Elliott L; Bograd, Steven J; Halpern, Benjamin S; Breed, Greg A; Nickel, Barry; Teutschel, Nicole M; Crowder, Larry B; Benson, Scott; Dutton, Peter H; Bailey, Helen; Kappes, Michelle A; Kuhn, Carey E; Weise, Michael J; Mate, Bruce; Shaffer, Scott A; Hassrick, Jason L; Henry, Robert W; Irvine, Ladd; McDonald, Birgitte I; Robinson, Patrick W; Block, Barbara A; Costa, Daniel P

    2013-01-01

    Stressors associated with human activities interact in complex ways to affect marine ecosystems, yet we lack spatially explicit assessments of cumulative impacts on ecologically and economically key components such as marine predators. Here we develop a metric of cumulative utilization and impact (CUI) on marine predators by combining electronic tracking data of eight protected predator species (n=685 individuals) in the California Current Ecosystem with data on 24 anthropogenic stressors. We show significant variation in CUI with some of the highest impacts within US National Marine Sanctuaries. High variation in underlying species and cumulative impact distributions means that neither alone is sufficient for effective spatial management. Instead, comprehensive management approaches accounting for both cumulative human impacts and trade-offs among multiple stressors must be applied in planning the use of marine resources.

  19. Cumulative cultural learning: Development and diversity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Legare, Cristine H

    2017-07-24

    The complexity and variability of human culture is unmatched by any other species. Humans live in culturally constructed niches filled with artifacts, skills, beliefs, and practices that have been inherited, accumulated, and modified over generations. A causal account of the complexity of human culture must explain its distinguishing characteristics: It is cumulative and highly variable within and across populations. I propose that the psychological adaptations supporting cumulative cultural transmission are universal but are sufficiently flexible to support the acquisition of highly variable behavioral repertoires. This paper describes variation in the transmission practices (teaching) and acquisition strategies (imitation) that support cumulative cultural learning in childhood. Examining flexibility and variation in caregiver socialization and children's learning extends our understanding of evolution in living systems by providing insight into the psychological foundations of cumulative cultural transmission-the cornerstone of human cultural diversity.

  20. Calculating Cumulative Binomial-Distribution Probabilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scheuer, Ernest M.; Bowerman, Paul N.

    1989-01-01

    Cumulative-binomial computer program, CUMBIN, one of set of three programs, calculates cumulative binomial probability distributions for arbitrary inputs. CUMBIN, NEWTONP (NPO-17556), and CROSSER (NPO-17557), used independently of one another. Reliabilities and availabilities of k-out-of-n systems analyzed. Used by statisticians and users of statistical procedures, test planners, designers, and numerical analysts. Used for calculations of reliability and availability. Program written in C.

  1. About the cumulants of periodic signals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barrau, Axel; El Badaoui, Mohammed

    2018-01-01

    This note studies cumulants of time series. These functions originating from the probability theory being commonly used as features of deterministic signals, their classical properties are examined in this modified framework. We show additivity of cumulants, ensured in the case of independent random variables, requires here a different hypothesis. Practical applications are proposed, in particular an analysis of the failure of the JADE algorithm to separate some specific periodic signals.

  2. Origin of path independence between cumulative CO2 emissions and global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seshadri, Ashwin K.

    2017-11-01

    Observations and GCMs exhibit approximate proportionality between cumulative carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and global warming. Here we identify sufficient conditions for the relationship between cumulative CO2 emissions and global warming to be independent of the path of CO2 emissions; referred to as "path independence". Our starting point is a closed form expression for global warming in a two-box energy balance model (EBM), which depends explicitly on cumulative emissions, airborne fraction and time. Path independence requires that this function can be approximated as depending on cumulative emissions alone. We show that path independence arises from weak constraints, occurring if the timescale for changes in cumulative emissions (equal to ratio between cumulative emissions and emissions rate) is small compared to the timescale for changes in airborne fraction (which depends on CO2 uptake), and also small relative to a derived climate model parameter called the damping-timescale, which is related to the rate at which deep-ocean warming affects global warming. Effects of uncertainties in the climate model and carbon cycle are examined. Large deep-ocean heat capacity in the Earth system is not necessary for path independence, which appears resilient to climate modeling uncertainties. However long time-constants in the Earth system carbon cycle are essential, ensuring that airborne fraction changes slowly with timescale much longer than the timescale for changes in cumulative emissions. Therefore path independence between cumulative emissions and warming cannot arise for short-lived greenhouse gases.

  3. Cumulative effects assessment: Does scale matter?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Therivel, Riki; Ross, Bill

    2007-01-01

    Cumulative effects assessment (CEA) is (or should be) an integral part of environmental assessment at both the project and the more strategic level. CEA helps to link the different scales of environmental assessment in that it focuses on how a given receptor is affected by the totality of plans, projects and activities, rather than on the effects of a particular plan or project. This article reviews how CEAs consider, and could consider, scale issues: spatial extent, level of detail, and temporal issues. It is based on an analysis of Canadian project-level CEAs and UK strategic-level CEAs. Based on a review of literature and, especially, case studies with which the authors are familiar, it concludes that scale issues are poorly considered at both levels, with particular problems being unclear or non-existing cumulative effects scoping methodologies; poor consideration of past or likely future human activities beyond the plan or project in question; attempts to apportion 'blame' for cumulative effects; and, at the plan level, limited management of cumulative effects caused particularly by the absence of consent regimes. Scale issues are important in most of these problems. However both strategic-level and project-level CEA have much potential for managing cumulative effects through better siting and phasing of development, demand reduction and other behavioural changes, and particularly through setting development consent rules for projects. The lack of strategic resource-based thresholds constrains the robust management of strategic-level cumulative effects

  4. Assessing the implications of human land-use change for the transient climate response to cumulative carbon emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simmons, C T; Matthews, H D

    2016-01-01

    Recent research has shown evidence of a linear climate response to cumulative CO 2 emissions, which implies that the source, timing, and amount of emissions does not significantly influence the climate response per unit emission. Furthermore, these analyses have generally assumed that the climate response to land-use CO 2 emissions is equivalent to that of fossil fuels under the assumption that, once in the atmosphere, the radiative forcing induced by CO 2 is not sensitive to the emissions source. However, land-cover change also affects surface albedo and the strength of terrestrial carbon sinks, both of which have an additional climate effect. In this study, we use a coupled climate-carbon cycle model to assess the climate response to historical and future cumulative land-use CO 2 emissions, in order to compare it to the response to fossil fuel CO 2 . We find that when we isolate the CO 2 -induced (biogeochemical) temperature changes associated with land-use change, then the climate response to cumulative land-use emissions is equivalent to that of fossil fuel CO 2 . We show further that the globally-averaged albedo-induced biophysical cooling from land-use change is non-negligible and may be of comparable magnitude to the biogeochemical warming, with the result that the net climate response to land-use change is substantially different from a linear response to cumulative emissions. However, our new simulations suggest that the biophysical cooling from land-use change follows its own independent (negative) linear response to cumulative net land-use CO 2 emissions, which may provide a useful scaling factor for certain applications when evaluating the full transient climate response to emissions. (letter)

  5. Computer models and the evidence of anthropogenic climate change: An epistemology of variety-of-evidence inferences and robustness analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vezér, Martin A

    2016-04-01

    To study climate change, scientists employ computer models, which approximate target systems with various levels of skill. Given the imperfection of climate models, how do scientists use simulations to generate knowledge about the causes of observed climate change? Addressing a similar question in the context of biological modelling, Levins (1966) proposed an account grounded in robustness analysis. Recent philosophical discussions dispute the confirmatory power of robustness, raising the question of how the results of computer modelling studies contribute to the body of evidence supporting hypotheses about climate change. Expanding on Staley's (2004) distinction between evidential strength and security, and Lloyd's (2015) argument connecting variety-of-evidence inferences and robustness analysis, I address this question with respect to recent challenges to the epistemology robustness analysis. Applying this epistemology to case studies of climate change, I argue that, despite imperfections in climate models, and epistemic constraints on variety-of-evidence reasoning and robustness analysis, this framework accounts for the strength and security of evidence supporting climatological inferences, including the finding that global warming is occurring and its primary causes are anthropogenic. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Modeling Sensor Reliability in Fault Diagnosis Based on Evidence Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kaijuan Yuan

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Sensor data fusion plays an important role in fault diagnosis. Dempster–Shafer (D-R evidence theory is widely used in fault diagnosis, since it is efficient to combine evidence from different sensors. However, under the situation where the evidence highly conflicts, it may obtain a counterintuitive result. To address the issue, a new method is proposed in this paper. Not only the statistic sensor reliability, but also the dynamic sensor reliability are taken into consideration. The evidence distance function and the belief entropy are combined to obtain the dynamic reliability of each sensor report. A weighted averaging method is adopted to modify the conflict evidence by assigning different weights to evidence according to sensor reliability. The proposed method has better performance in conflict management and fault diagnosis due to the fact that the information volume of each sensor report is taken into consideration. An application in fault diagnosis based on sensor fusion is illustrated to show the efficiency of the proposed method. The results show that the proposed method improves the accuracy of fault diagnosis from 81.19% to 89.48% compared to the existing methods.

  7. Dynamic prediction of cumulative incidence functions by direct binomial regression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grand, Mia K; de Witte, Theo J M; Putter, Hein

    2018-03-25

    In recent years there have been a series of advances in the field of dynamic prediction. Among those is the development of methods for dynamic prediction of the cumulative incidence function in a competing risk setting. These models enable the predictions to be updated as time progresses and more information becomes available, for example when a patient comes back for a follow-up visit after completing a year of treatment, the risk of death, and adverse events may have changed since treatment initiation. One approach to model the cumulative incidence function in competing risks is by direct binomial regression, where right censoring of the event times is handled by inverse probability of censoring weights. We extend the approach by combining it with landmarking to enable dynamic prediction of the cumulative incidence function. The proposed models are very flexible, as they allow the covariates to have complex time-varying effects, and we illustrate how to investigate possible time-varying structures using Wald tests. The models are fitted using generalized estimating equations. The method is applied to bone marrow transplant data and the performance is investigated in a simulation study. © 2018 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  8. Managing cumulative impacts: A key to sustainability?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hunsaker, C.T.

    1994-12-31

    This paper addresses how science can be more effectively used in creating policy to manage cumulative effects on ecosystems. The paper focuses on the scientific techniques that we have to identify and to assess cumulative impacts on ecosystems. The term ``sustainable development`` was brought into common use by the World Commission on Environment and Development (The Brundtland Commission) in 1987. The Brundtland Commission report highlighted the need to simultaneously address developmental and environmental imperatives simultaneously by calling for development that ``meets the needs of the present generation without compromising the needs of future generations.`` We cannot claim to be working toward sustainable development until we can quantitatively assess cumulative impacts on the environment: The two concepts are inextricibally linked in that the elusiveness of cumulative effects likely has the greatest potential of keeping us from achieving sustainability. In this paper, assessment and management frameworks relevant to cumulative impacts are discussed along with recent literature on how to improve such assessments. When possible, examples are given for marine ecosystems.

  9. Perspectives on cumulative risks and impacts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faust, John B

    2010-01-01

    Cumulative risks and impacts have taken on different meanings in different regulatory and programmatic contexts at federal and state government levels. Traditional risk assessment methodologies, with considerable limitations, can provide a framework for the evaluation of cumulative risks from chemicals. Under an environmental justice program in California, cumulative impacts are defined to include exposures, public health effects, or environmental effects in a geographic area from the emission or discharge of environmental pollution from all sources, through all media. Furthermore, the evaluation of these effects should take into account sensitive populations and socioeconomic factors where possible and to the extent data are available. Key aspects to this potential approach include the consideration of exposures (versus risk), socioeconomic factors, the geographic or community-level assessment scale, and the inclusion of not only health effects but also environmental effects as contributors to impact. Assessments of this type extend the boundaries of the types of information that toxicologists generally provide for risk management decisions.

  10. Cumulative processes and quark distribution in nuclei

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kondratyuk, L.; Shmatikov, M.

    1984-01-01

    Assuming existence of multiquark (mainly 12q) bags in nuclei the spectra of cumulative nucleons and mesons produced in high-energy particle-nucleus collisions are discussed. The exponential form of quark momentum distribution in 12q-bag (agreeing well with the experimental data on lepton-nucleus interactions at large q 2 ) is shown to result in quasi-exponential distribution of cumulative particles over the light-cone variable αsub(B). The dependence of f(αsub(B); psub(perpendicular)) (where psub(perpendicular) is the transverse momentum of the bag) upon psub(perpendicular) is considered. The yields of cumulative resonances as well as effects related to the u- and d-quark distributions in N > Z nuclei being different are dicscussed

  11. Cumulative Culture and Future Thinking: Is Mental Time Travel a Prerequisite to Cumulative Cultural Evolution?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vale, G. L.; Flynn, E. G.; Kendal, R. L.

    2012-01-01

    Cumulative culture denotes the, arguably, human capacity to build on the cultural behaviors of one's predecessors, allowing increases in cultural complexity to occur such that many of our cultural artifacts, products and technologies have progressed beyond what a single individual could invent alone. This process of cumulative cultural evolution…

  12. EXAFS cumulants of CdSe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Diop, D.

    1997-04-01

    EXAFS functions had been extracted from measurements on the K edge of Se at different temperatures between 20 and 300 K. The analysis of the EXAFS of the filtered first two shells has been done in the wavevector range laying between 2 and 15.5 A -1 in terms of the cumulants of the effective distribution of distances. The cumulants C 3 and C 4 obtained from the phase difference and the amplitude ratio methods have shown the anharmonicity in the vibrations of atoms around their equilibrium position. (author). 13 refs, 3 figs

  13. Cumulative effects of wind turbines. A guide to assessing the cumulative effects of wind energy development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2000-07-01

    This guidance provides advice on how to assess the cumulative effects of wind energy developments in an area and is aimed at developers, planners, and stakeholders interested in the development of wind energy in the UK. The principles of cumulative assessment, wind energy development in the UK, cumulative assessment of wind energy development, and best practice conclusions are discussed. The identification and assessment of the cumulative effects is examined in terms of global environmental sustainability, local environmental quality and socio-economic activity. Supplementary guidance for assessing the principle cumulative effects on the landscape, on birds, and on the visual effect is provided. The consensus building approach behind the preparation of this guidance is outlined in the annexes of the report.

  14. Cumulative Effect of Depression on Dementia Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Olazarán

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective. To analyze a potential cumulative effect of life-time depression on dementia and Alzheimer’s disease (AD, with control of vascular factors (VFs. Methods. This study was a subanalysis of the Neurological Disorders in Central Spain (NEDICES study. Past and present depression, VFs, dementia status, and dementia due to AD were documented at study inception. Dementia status was also documented after three years. Four groups were created according to baseline data: never depression (nD, past depression (pD, present depression (prD, and present and past depression (prpD. Logistic regression was used. Results. Data of 1,807 subjects were investigated at baseline (mean age 74.3, 59.3% women, and 1,376 (81.6% subjects were evaluated after three years. The prevalence of dementia at baseline was 6.7%, and dementia incidence was 6.3%. An effect of depression was observed on dementia prevalence (OR [CI 95%] 1.84 [1.01–3.35] for prD and 2.73 [1.08–6.87] for prpD, and on dementia due to AD (OR 1.98 [0.98–3.99] for prD and OR 3.98 [1.48–10.71] for prpD (fully adjusted models, nD as reference. Depression did not influence dementia incidence. Conclusions. Present depression and, particularly, present and past depression are associated with dementia at old age. Multiple mechanisms, including toxic effect of depression on hippocampal neurons, plausibly explain these associations.

  15. Managing regional cumulative effects of oil sands development in Alberta, Canada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spaling, H.; Zwier, J.

    2000-01-01

    This paper demonstrates an approach to regional cumulative effects management using the case of oil sands development in Alberta, Canada. The 17 existing, approved, or planned projects, all concentrated in a relatively small region, pose significant challenges for conducting and reviewing cumulative effects assessment (CEA) on a project-by-project basis. In response, stakeholders have initiated a regional cumulative effects management system that is among the first such initiatives anywhere. Advantages of this system include (1) more efficient gathering and sharing of information, including a common regional database, (2) setting acceptable regional environmental thresholds for all projects, (3) collaborative assessment of similar cumulative effects from related projects, (4) co-ordinated regulatory review and approval process for overlapping CEAs, and (5) institutional empowerment from a Regional Sustainable Development Strategy administered by a public authority. This case provides a model for integrating project-based CEA with regional management of cumulative effects. (author)

  16. Business Processes Modeling Recommender Systems: User Expectations and Empirical Evidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Fellmann

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Recommender systems are in widespread use in many areas, especially electronic commerce solutions. In this contribution, we apply recommender functionalities to business process modeling and investigate their potential for supporting process modeling. To do so, we have implemented two prototypes, demonstrated them at a major fair and collected user feedback. After analysis of the feedback, we have confronted the findings with the results of the experiment. Our results indicate that fairgoers expect increased modeling speed as the key advantage and completeness of models as the most unlikely advantage. This stands in contrast to an initial experiment revealing that modelers, in fact, increase the completeness of their models when adequate knowledge is presented while time consumption is not necessarily reduced. We explain possible causes of this mismatch and finally hypothesize on two “sweet spots” of process modeling recommender systems.

  17. A cumulant functional for static and dynamic correlation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hollett, Joshua W.; Hosseini, Hessam; Menzies, Cameron

    2016-01-01

    A functional for the cumulant energy is introduced. The functional is composed of a pair-correction and static and dynamic correlation energy components. The pair-correction and static correlation energies are functionals of the natural orbitals and the occupancy transferred between near-degenerate orbital pairs, rather than the orbital occupancies themselves. The dynamic correlation energy is a functional of the statically correlated on-top two-electron density. The on-top density functional used in this study is the well-known Colle-Salvetti functional. Using the cc-pVTZ basis set, the functional effectively models the bond dissociation of H 2 , LiH, and N 2 with equilibrium bond lengths and dissociation energies comparable to those provided by multireference second-order perturbation theory. The performance of the cumulant functional is less impressive for HF and F 2 , mainly due to an underestimation of the dynamic correlation energy by the Colle-Salvetti functional.

  18. Ecosystem assessment methods for cumulative effects at the regional scale

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hunsaker, C.T.

    1989-01-01

    Environmental issues such as nonpoint-source pollution, acid rain, reduced biodiversity, land use change, and climate change have widespread ecological impacts and require an integrated assessment approach. Since 1978, the implementing regulations for the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) have required assessment of potential cumulative environmental impacts. Current environmental issues have encouraged ecologists to improve their understanding of ecosystem process and function at several spatial scales. However, management activities usually occur at the local scale, and there is little consideration of the potential impacts to the environmental quality of a region. This paper proposes that regional ecological risk assessment provides a useful approach for assisting scientists in accomplishing the task of assessing cumulative impacts. Critical issues such as spatial heterogeneity, boundary definition, and data aggregation are discussed. Examples from an assessment of acidic deposition effects on fish in Adirondack lakes illustrate the importance of integrated data bases, associated modeling efforts, and boundary definition at the regional scale

  19. Multiparty correlation measure based on the cumulant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhou, D. L.; Zeng, B.; Xu, Z.; You, L.

    2006-01-01

    We propose a genuine multiparty correlation measure for a multiparty quantum system as the trace norm of the cumulant of the state. The legitimacy of our multiparty correlation measure is explicitly demonstrated by proving it satisfies the five basic conditions required for a correlation measure. As an application we construct an efficient algorithm for the calculation of our measures for all stabilizer states

  20. Cumulative watershed effects: a research perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leslie M. Reid; Robert R. Ziemer

    1989-01-01

    A cumulative watershed effect (CWE) is any response to multiple land-use activities that is caused by, or results in, altered watershed function. The CWE issue is politically defined, as is the significance of particular impacts. But the processes generating CWEs are the traditional focus of geomorphology and ecology, and have thus been studied for decades. The CWE...

  1. A spatial Mankiw-Romer-Weil model: Theory and evidence

    OpenAIRE

    Fischer, Manfred M.

    2009-01-01

    This paper presents a theoretical growth model that extends the Mankiw-Romer-Weil [MRW] model by accounting for technological interdependence among regional economies. Interdependence is assumed to work through spatial externalities caused by disembodied knowledge diffusion. The transition from theory to econometrics leads to a reduced-form empirical spatial Durbin model specification that explains the variation in regional levels of per worker output at steady state. A system ...

  2. Evidence, models, conservation programs and limits to management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nichols, J.D.

    2012-01-01

    Walsh et al. (2012) emphasized the importance of obtaining evidence to assess the effects of management actions on state variables relevant to objectives of conservation programs. They focused on malleefowl Leipoa ocellata, ground-dwelling Australian megapodes listed as vulnerable. They noted that although fox Vulpes vulpes baiting is the main management action used in malleefowl conservation throughout southern Australia, evidence of the effectiveness of this action is limited and currently debated. Walsh et al. (2012) then used data from 64 sites monitored for malleefowl and foxes over 23 years to assess key functional relationships relevant to fox control as a conservation action for malleefowl. In one set of analyses, Walsh et al. (2012) focused on two relationships: fox baiting investment versus fox presence, and fox presence versus malleefowl population size and rate of population change. Results led to the counterintuitive conclusion that increases in investments in fox control produced slight decreases in malleefowl population size and growth. In a second set of analyses, Walsh et al. (2012) directly assessed the relationship between investment in fox baiting and malleefowl population size and rate of population change. This set of analyses showed no significant relationship between investment in fox population control and malleefowl population growth. Both sets of analyses benefited from the incorporation of key environmental covariates hypothesized to influence these management relationships. Walsh et al. (2012) concluded that "in most situations, malleefowl conservation did not effectively benefit from fox baiting at current levels of investment." In this commentary, I discuss the work of Walsh et al. (2012) using the conceptual framework of structured decision making (SDM). In doing so, I accept their analytic results and associated conclusions as accurate and discuss basic ideas about evidence, conservation and limits to management.

  3. Measuring Convergence using Dynamic Equilibrium Models: Evidence from Chinese Provinces

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pan, Lei; Posch, Olaf; van der Wel, Michel

    We propose a model to study economic convergence in the tradition of neoclassical growth theory. We employ a novel stochastic set-up of the Solow (1956) model with shocks to both capital and labor. Our novel approach identifies the speed of convergence directly from estimating the parameters which...

  4. Emergence of Shared Intentionality Is Coupled to the Advance of Cumulative Culture.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simon D Angus

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available There is evidence that the sharing of intentions was an important factor in the evolution of humans' unique cognitive abilities. Here, for the first time, we formally model the coevolution of jointly intentional behavior and cumulative culture, showing that rapid techno-cultural advance goes hand in hand with the emergence of the ability to participate in jointly intentional behavior. Conversely, in the absence of opportunities for significant techno-cultural improvement, the ability to undertake jointly intentional behavior is selected against. Thus, we provide a unified mechanism for the suppression or emergence of shared intentions and collaborative behavior in humans, as well as a potential cause of inter-species diversity in the prevalence of such behavior.

  5. CUMULATE ROCKS ASSOCIATED WITH CARBONATE ASSIMILATION, HORTAVÆR COMPLEX, NORTH-CENTRAL NORWAY

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnes, C. G.; Prestvik, T.; Li, Y.

    2009-12-01

    The Hortavær igneous complex intruded high-grade metamorphic rocks of the Caledonian Helgeland Nappe Complex at ca. 466 Ma. The complex is an unusual mafic-silicic layered intrusion (MASLI) because the principal felsic rock type is syenite and because the syenite formed in situ rather than by deep-seated partial melting of crustal rocks. Magma differentiation in the complex was by assimilation, primarily of calc-silicate rocks and melts with contributions from marble and semi-pelites, plus fractional crystallization. The effect of assimilation of calcite-rich rocks was to enhance stability of fassaitic clinopyroxene at the expense of olivine, which resulted in alkali-rich residual melts and lowering of silica activity. This combination of MASLI-style emplacement and carbonate assimilation produced three types of cumulate rocks: (1) Syenitic cumulates formed by liquid-crystal separation. As sheets of mafic magma were loaded on crystal-rich syenitic magma, residual liquid was expelled, penetrating the overlying mafic sheets in flame structures, and leaving a cumulate syenite. (2) Reaction cumulates. Carbonate assimilation, illustrated by a simple assimilation reaction: olivine + calcite + melt = clinopyroxene + CO2 resulted in cpx-rich cumulates such as clinopyroxenite, gabbro, and mela-monzodiorite, many of which contain igneous calcite. (3) Magmatic skarns. Calc-silicate host rocks underwent partial melting during assimilation, yielding a Ca-rich melt as the principal assimilated material and permitting extensive reaction with surrounding magma to form Kspar + cpx + garnet-rich ‘cumulate’ rocks. Cumulate types (2) and (3) do not reflect traditional views of cumulate rocks but instead result from a series of melt-present discontinuous (peritectic) reactions and partial melting of calc-silicate xenoliths. In the Hortavær complex, such cumulates are evident because of the distinctive peritectic cumulate assemblages. It is unclear whether assimilation of

  6. Using Toxicological Evidence from QSAR Models in Practice

    Science.gov (United States)

    The new generation of QSAR models provides supporting documentation in addition to the predicted toxicological value. Such information enables the toxicologist to explore the properties of chemical substances and to review and increase the reliability of toxicity predictions. Thi...

  7. The Market for Television Advertising: Model and Evidence

    OpenAIRE

    Robert Kieschnick; B. McCullough; Steven Wildman

    2001-01-01

    We provide a model of television advertising based on an explicit characterization of an advertisement's contribution to an advertiser's profits that suggests that each program faces a downward sloping demand for its ad time. Hence Fournier and Martin's (1983) "law of one price" does not hold in our model. We study these contrasting arguments about television advertising by examining the pricing of broadcast network advertising. In conducting this empirical examination we encounter and solve ...

  8. MODELING MONETARY POLICY RULES IN THE MENACOUNTRIES: ISSUES AND EVIDENCE

    OpenAIRE

    Mohamad Husam Helmi

    2011-01-01

    This paper estimates the monetary policy reaction function for two sets of MENAcountries: The inflation target countries, (Turkeyand Israel) and the exchange ratetarget countries, (Jordan and Morocco). We motivateour empirical analysis byanalyzing a simple Taylor rule. This model looks atthe effects of inflation andoutput on setting the interest rate by the centralbank. Furthermore, we extendedour model by adding the exchange rate and the foreign interest rate ...

  9. An Integrated Cumulative Transformation and Feature Fusion Approach for Bearing Degradation Prognostics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lixiang Duan

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Aimed at degradation prognostics of a rolling bearing, this paper proposed a novel cumulative transformation algorithm for data processing and a feature fusion technique for bearing degradation assessment. First, a cumulative transformation is presented to map the original features extracted from a vibration signal to their respective cumulative forms. The technique not only makes the extracted features show a monotonic trend but also reduces the fluctuation; such properties are more propitious to reflect the bearing degradation trend. Then, a new degradation index system is constructed, which fuses multidimensional cumulative features by kernel principal component analysis (KPCA. Finally, an extreme learning machine model based on phase space reconstruction is proposed to predict the degradation trend. The model performance is experimentally validated with a whole-life experiment of a rolling bearing. The results prove that the proposed method reflects the bearing degradation process clearly and achieves a good balance between model accuracy and complexity.

  10. Problems of describing the cumulative effect in relativistic nuclear physics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baldin, A.M.

    1979-01-01

    The problem of describing the cumulative effect i.e., the particle production on nuclei in the range kinematically forbidden for one-nucleon collisions, is studied. Discrimination of events containing cumulative particles fixes configurations in the wave function of a nucleus, when several nucleons are closely spaced and their quark-parton components are collectivized. For the cumulative processes under consideration large distances between quarks are very important. The fundamental facts and theoretical interpretation of the quantum field theory and of the condensed media theory in the relativistic nuclear physics are presented in brief. The collisions of the relativistic nuclei with low momentum transfers is considered in a fast moving coordinate system. The basic parameter determining this type of collisions is the energy of nucleon binding in nuclei. It has been shown that the short-range correlation model provides a good presentation of many characteristics of the multiple particle production and it may be regarded as an approximate universal property of hadron interactions

  11. Energy Current Cumulants in One-Dimensional Systems in Equilibrium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dhar, Abhishek; Saito, Keiji; Roy, Anjan

    2018-06-01

    A recent theory based on fluctuating hydrodynamics predicts that one-dimensional interacting systems with particle, momentum, and energy conservation exhibit anomalous transport that falls into two main universality classes. The classification is based on behavior of equilibrium dynamical correlations of the conserved quantities. One class is characterized by sound modes with Kardar-Parisi-Zhang scaling, while the second class has diffusive sound modes. The heat mode follows Lévy statistics, with different exponents for the two classes. Here we consider heat current fluctuations in two specific systems, which are expected to be in the above two universality classes, namely, a hard particle gas with Hamiltonian dynamics and a harmonic chain with momentum conserving stochastic dynamics. Numerical simulations show completely different system-size dependence of current cumulants in these two systems. We explain this numerical observation using a phenomenological model of Lévy walkers with inputs from fluctuating hydrodynamics. This consistently explains the system-size dependence of heat current fluctuations. For the latter system, we derive the cumulant-generating function from a more microscopic theory, which also gives the same system-size dependence of cumulants.

  12. No evidence for extensions to the standard cosmological model

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Heavens, A

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available , the Bayesian evidence depends on the priors chosen. Here we have used uniform box priors (in addition, cosmoMCexcludes some physically impossible subregions) based on the 2015 Planck analysis (Antony Lewis), and these are listed in Table I. For parameter... density today ωc ≡ Ωch2 [0.001, 0.99] … Cold dark matter density today 100θMC [0.5, 10] … 100× approximation to r�=DA (CosmoMC) τ [0.01, 0.8] … Thomson scattering optical depth due to reionization lnð1010AsÞ [2, 4] … Log power of the primordial curvature...

  13. Numerical simulation of explosive magnetic cumulative generator EMG-720

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Deryugin, Yu N; Zelenskij, D K; Kazakova, I F; Kargin, V I; Mironychev, P V; Pikar, A S; Popkov, N F; Ryaslov, E A; Ryzhatskova, E G [All-Russian Research Inst. of Experimental Physics, Sarov (Russian Federation)

    1997-12-31

    The paper discusses the methods and results of numerical simulations used in the development of a helical-coaxial explosive magnetic cumulative generator (EMG) with the stator up to 720 mm in diameter. In the process of designing, separate units were numerically modeled, as was the generator operation with a constant inductive-ohmic load. The 2-D processes of the armature acceleration by the explosion products were modeled as well as those of the formation of the sliding high-current contact between the armature and stator`s insulated turns. The problem of the armature integrity in the region of the detonation waves collision was numerically analyzed. 8 figs., 2 refs.

  14. Severe occupational hand eczema, job stress and cumulative sickness absence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Böhm, D; Stock Gissendanner, S; Finkeldey, F; John, S M; Werfel, T; Diepgen, T L; Breuer, K

    2014-10-01

    Stress is known to activate or exacerbate dermatoses, but the relationships between chronic stress, job-related stress and sickness absence among occupational hand eczema (OHE) patients are inadequately understood. To see whether chronic stress or burnout symptoms were associated with cumulative sickness absence in patients with OHE and to determine which factors predicted sickness absence in a model including measures of job-related and chronic stress. We investigated correlations of these factors in employed adult inpatients with a history of sickness absence due to OHE in a retrospective cross-sectional explorative study, which assessed chronic stress (Trier Inventory for the Assessment of Chronic Stress), burnout (Shirom Melamed Burnout Measure), clinical symptom severity (Osnabrück Hand Eczema Severity Index), perceived symptom severity, demographic characteristics and cumulative days of sickness absence. The study group consisted of 122 patients. OHE symptoms were not more severe among patients experiencing greater stress and burnout. Women reported higher levels of chronic stress on some measures. Cumulative days of sickness absence correlated with individual dimensions of job-related stress and, in multiple regression analysis, with an overall measure of chronic stress. Chronic stress is an additional factor predicting cumulative sickness absence among severely affected OHE patients. Other relevant factors for this study sample included the 'cognitive weariness' subscale of the Shirom Melamed Burnout Measure and the physical component summary score of the SF-36, a measure of health-related life quality. Prevention and rehabilitation should take job stress into consideration in multidisciplinary treatment strategies for severely affected OHE patients. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society of Occupational Medicine. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  15. Finite-volume cumulant expansion in QCD-colorless plasma

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ladrem, M. [Taibah University, Physics Department, Faculty of Science, Al-Madinah, Al-Munawwarah (Saudi Arabia); Physics Department, Algiers (Algeria); ENS-Vieux Kouba (Bachir El-Ibrahimi), Laboratoire de Physique et de Mathematiques Appliquees (LPMA), Algiers (Algeria); Ahmed, M.A.A. [Taibah University, Physics Department, Faculty of Science, Al-Madinah, Al-Munawwarah (Saudi Arabia); ENS-Vieux Kouba (Bachir El-Ibrahimi), Laboratoire de Physique et de Mathematiques Appliquees (LPMA), Algiers (Algeria); Taiz University in Turba, Physics Department, Taiz (Yemen); Alfull, Z.Z. [Taibah University, Physics Department, Faculty of Science, Al-Madinah, Al-Munawwarah (Saudi Arabia); Cherif, S. [ENS-Vieux Kouba (Bachir El-Ibrahimi), Laboratoire de Physique et de Mathematiques Appliquees (LPMA), Algiers (Algeria); Ghardaia University, Sciences and Technologies Department, Ghardaia (Algeria)

    2015-09-15

    Due to the finite-size effects, the localization of the phase transition in finite systems and the determination of its order, become an extremely difficult task, even in the simplest known cases. In order to identify and locate the finite-volume transition point T{sub 0}(V) of the QCD deconfinement phase transition to a colorless QGP, we have developed a new approach using the finite-size cumulant expansion of the order parameter and the L{sub mn}-method. The first six cumulants C{sub 1,2,3,4,5,6} with the corresponding under-normalized ratios (skewness Σ, kurtosis κ, pentosis Π{sub ±}, and hexosis H{sub 1,2,3}) and three unnormalized combinations of them, (O = σ{sup 2}κΣ{sup -1},U = σ{sup -2}Σ{sup -1},N = σ{sup 2}κ) are calculated and studied as functions of (T, V). A new approach, unifying in a clear and consistent way the definitions of cumulant ratios, is proposed.Anumerical FSS analysis of the obtained results has allowed us to locate accurately the finite-volume transition point. The extracted transition temperature value T{sub 0}(V) agrees with that expected T{sub 0}{sup N}(V) from the order parameter and the thermal susceptibility χ{sub T} (T, V), according to the standard procedure of localization to within about 2%. In addition to this, a very good correlation factor is obtained proving the validity of our cumulants method. The agreement of our results with those obtained by means of other models is remarkable. (orig.)

  16. Measuring Students' Motivation: Validity Evidence for the MUSIC Model of Academic Motivation Inventory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Brett D.; Skaggs, Gary

    2016-01-01

    This study provides validity evidence for the MUSIC Model of Academic Motivation Inventory (MUSIC Inventory; Jones, 2012), which measures college students' beliefs related to the five components of the MUSIC Model of Motivation (MUSIC model; Jones, 2009). The MUSIC model is a conceptual framework for five categories of teaching strategies (i.e.,…

  17. Model Complexity and Out-of-Sample Performance: Evidence from S&P 500 Index Returns

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kaeck, Andreas; Rodrigues, Paulo; Seeger, Norman J.

    We apply a range of out-of-sample specification tests to more than forty competing stochastic volatility models to address how model complexity affects out-of-sample performance. Using daily S&P 500 index returns, model confidence set estimations provide strong evidence that the most important model

  18. Linking Essential Tremor to the Cerebellum-Animal Model Evidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Handforth, Adrian

    2016-06-01

    In this review, we hope to stimulate interest in animal models as opportunities to understand tremor mechanisms within the cerebellar system. We begin by considering the harmaline model of essential tremor (ET), which has ET-like anatomy and pharmacology. Harmaline induces the inferior olive (IO) to burst fire rhythmically, recruiting rhythmic activity in Purkinje cells (PCs) and deep cerebellar nuclei (DCN). This model has fostered the IO hypothesis of ET, which postulates that factors that promote excess IO, and hence PC complex spike synchrony, also promote tremor. In contrast, the PC hypothesis postulates that partial PC cell loss underlies tremor of ET. We describe models in which chronic partial PC loss is associated with tremor, such as the Weaver mouse, and others with PC loss that do not show tremor, such as the Purkinje cell degeneration mouse. We postulate that partial PC loss with tremor is associated with terminal axonal sprouting. We then discuss tremor that occurs with large lesions of the cerebellum in primates. This tremor has variable frequency and is an ataxic tremor not related to ET. Another tremor type that is not likely related to ET is tremor in mice with mutations that cause prolonged synaptic GABA action. This tremor is probably due to mistiming within cerebellar circuitry. In the final section, we catalog tremor models involving neurotransmitter and ion channel perturbations. Some appear to be related to the IO hypothesis of ET, while in others tremor may be ataxic or due to mistiming. In summary, we offer a tentative framework for classifying animal action tremor, such that various models may be considered potentially relevant to ET, subscribing to IO or PC hypotheses, or not likely relevant, as with mistiming or ataxic tremor. Considerable further research is needed to elucidate the mechanisms of tremor in animal models.

  19. A Systematic Review of Evidence for the Clubhouse Model of Psychosocial Rehabilitation

    OpenAIRE

    McKay, Colleen; Nugent, Katie L.; Johnsen, Matthew; Eaton, William W.; Lidz, Charles W.

    2016-01-01

    The Clubhouse Model has been in existence for over sixty-five years; however, a review that synthesizes the literature on the model is needed. The current study makes use of the existing research to conduct a systematic review of articles providing a comprehensive understanding of what is known about the Clubhouse Model, to identify the best evidence available, as well as areas that would benefit from further study. Findings are summarized and evidence is classified by outcome domains. Fifty-...

  20. Physics of human cooperation: experimental evidence and theoretical models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sánchez, Angel

    2018-02-01

    In recent years, many physicists have used evolutionary game theory combined with a complex systems perspective in an attempt to understand social phenomena and challenges. Prominent among such phenomena is the issue of the emergence and sustainability of cooperation in a networked world of selfish or self-focused individuals. The vast majority of research done by physicists on these questions is theoretical, and is almost always posed in terms of agent-based models. Unfortunately, more often than not such models ignore a number of facts that are well established experimentally, and are thus rendered irrelevant to actual social applications. I here summarize some of the facts that any realistic model should incorporate and take into account, discuss important aspects underlying the relation between theory and experiments, and discuss future directions for research based on the available experimental knowledge.

  1. Towards Greenland Glaciation: cumulative or abrupt transition?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramstein, Gilles; Tan, Ning; Ladant, Jean-baptiste; Dumas, Christophe; Contoux, Camille

    2017-04-01

    During the mid-Pliocene warming period (3-3.3 Ma BP), the global annual mean temperatures inferred by data and model studies were 2-3° warmer than pre-industrial values. Accordingly, Greenland ice sheet volume is supposed to reach at the most, only half of that of present-day [Haywood et al. 2010]. Around 2.7-2.6 Ma BP, just ˜ 500 kyr after the warming peak of mid-Pliocene, the Greenland ice sheet has reached its full size [Lunt et al. 2008]. A crucial question concerns the evolution of the Greenland ice sheet from half to full size during the 3 - 2.5 Ma period. Data show a decreasing trend of atmospheric CO2 concentration from 3 Ma to 2.5 Ma [Seki et al.2010; Bartoli et al. 2011; Martinez et al. 2015]. However, a recent study [Contoux et al. 2015] suggests that a lowering of CO2 is not sufficient to initiate a perennial glaciation on Greenland and must be combined with low summer insolation to preserve the ice sheet during insolation maxima. This suggests rather a cumulative process than an abrupt event. In order to diagnose the evolution of the ice sheet build-up, we carry on, for the first time, a transient simulation of climate and ice sheet evolutions from 3 Ma to 2.5 Ma. This strategy enables us to investigate the waxing and waning of the ice sheet during several orbital cycles. We use a tri-dimensional interpolation method designed by Ladant et al. (2014), which allows the evolution of CO2 concentration and of orbital parameters, and the evolution of the Greenland ice sheet size to be taken into account. By interpolating climatic snapshot simulations ran with various possible combinations of CO2, orbits and ice sheet sizes, we can build a continuous climatic forcing that is then used to provide 500 kyrs-long ice sheet simulations. With such a tool, we may offer a physically based answer to different CO2 reconstructions scenarios and analyse which one is the most consistent with Greenland ice sheet buildup.

  2. Structure functions and particle production in the cumulative region: two different exponentials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Braun, M.; Vechernin, V.

    1997-01-01

    In the framework of the recently proposed (QCD-based parton model for the cumulative phenomena in the interactions with nuclei two mechanisms for particle production, direct and spectator ones, are analyzed. It is shown that due to final-state interactions the leading terms of the direct mechanism contribution are cancelled and the spectator mechanism is the dominant one. It leads to a smaller slope of the cumulative particle production rates compared to the slope of the nuclear structure function in the cumulative region x ≥ 1, in agreement with the recent experimental data

  3. Ecological plant epigenetics: Evidence from model and non-model species, and the way forward.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richards, Christina L; Alonso, Conchita; Becker, Claude; Bossdorf, Oliver; Bucher, Etienne; Colomé-Tatché, Maria; Durka, Walter; Engelhardt, Jan; Gaspar, Bence; Gogol-Döring, Andreas; Grosse, Ivo; van Gurp, Thomas P; Heer, Katrin; Kronholm, Ilkka; Lampei, Christian; Latzel, Vít; Mirouze, Marie; Opgenoorth, Lars; Paun, Ovidiu; Prohaska, Sonja J; Rensing, Stefan A; Stadler, Peter F; Trucchi, Emiliano; Ullrich, Kristian; Verhoeven, Koen J F

    2017-12-01

    Growing evidence shows that epigenetic mechanisms contribute to complex traits, with implications across many fields of biology. In plant ecology, recent studies have attempted to merge ecological experiments with epigenetic analyses to elucidate the contribution of epigenetics to plant phenotypes, stress responses, adaptation to habitat, and range distributions. While there has been some progress in revealing the role of epigenetics in ecological processes, studies with non-model species have so far been limited to describing broad patterns based on anonymous markers of DNA methylation. In contrast, studies with model species have benefited from powerful genomic resources, which contribute to a more mechanistic understanding but have limited ecological realism. Understanding the significance of epigenetics for plant ecology requires increased transfer of knowledge and methods from model species research to genomes of evolutionarily divergent species, and examination of responses to complex natural environments at a more mechanistic level. This requires transforming genomics tools specifically for studying non-model species, which is challenging given the large and often polyploid genomes of plants. Collaboration among molecular geneticists, ecologists and bioinformaticians promises to enhance our understanding of the mutual links between genome function and ecological processes. © 2017 The Authors. Ecology Letters published by CNRS and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  4. Evidence for the multiverse in the standard model and beyond

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hall, Lawrence J.; Nomura, Yasunori

    2008-01-01

    In any theory it is unnatural if the observed values of parameters lie very close to special values that determine the existence of complex structures necessary for observers. A naturalness probability P is introduced to numerically evaluate the degree of unnaturalness. If P is very small in all known theories, corresponding to a high degree of fine-tuning, then there is an observer naturalness problem. In addition to the well-known case of the cosmological constant, we argue that nuclear stability and electroweak symmetry breaking represent significant observer naturalness problems. The naturalness probability associated with nuclear stability depends on the theory of flavor, but for all known theories is conservatively estimated as P nuc -3 -10 -2 ), and for simple theories of electroweak symmetry breaking P EWSB -2 -10 -1 ). This pattern of unnaturalness in three different arenas, cosmology, nuclear physics, and electroweak symmetry breaking, provides evidence for the multiverse, since each problem may be easily solved by environmental selection. In the nuclear case the problem is largely solved even if the multiverse distribution for the relevant parameters is relatively flat. With somewhat strongly varying distributions, it is possible to understand both the close proximity to neutron stability and the values of m e and m d -m u in terms of the electromagnetic mass difference between the proton and neutron, δ EM ≅1±0.5 MeV. It is reasonable that multiverse distributions are strong functions of Lagrangian parameters, since they depend not only on the landscape of vacua, but also on the population mechanism, ''integrating out'' other parameters, and on a density of observers factor. In any theory with mass scale M that is the origin of electroweak symmetry breaking, strongly varying multiverse distributions typically lead either to a little hierarchy v/M≅(10 -2 -10 -1 ), or to a large hierarchy v 2 /M 2 suppressed by an extra loop factor, as well as by the

  5. An Evidence-Based Practitioner's Model for Adolescent Leadership Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rehm, Christopher J.

    2014-01-01

    This paper proposes a model for youth leadership education based on adolescent development and leadership research in an effort to provide practitioners with a practical blueprint to aid their creation and implementation of high school leadership programs. By focusing on student leader development areas which school level educators can affect,…

  6. Sharing a quota on cumulative carbon emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raupach, Michael R.; Davis, Steven J.; Peters, Glen P.; Andrew, Robbie M.; Canadell, Josep G.; Ciais, Philippe

    2014-01-01

    Any limit on future global warming is associated with a quota on cumulative global CO 2 emissions. We translate this global carbon quota to regional and national scales, on a spectrum of sharing principles that extends from continuation of the present distribution of emissions to an equal per-capita distribution of cumulative emissions. A blend of these endpoints emerges as the most viable option. For a carbon quota consistent with a 2 C warming limit (relative to pre-industrial levels), the necessary long-term mitigation rates are very challenging (typically over 5% per year), both because of strong limits on future emissions from the global carbon quota and also the likely short-term persistence in emissions growth in many regions. (authors)

  7. Childhood Cumulative Risk and Later Allostatic Load

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Doan, Stacey N; Dich, Nadya; Evans, Gary W

    2014-01-01

    State, followed for 8 years (between the ages 9 and 17). Poverty- related stress was computed using the cumulative risk approach, assessing stressors across 9 domains, including environmental, psychosocial, and demographic factors. Allostatic load captured a range of physiological responses, including......Objective: The present study investigated the long-term impact of exposure to poverty-related stressors during childhood on allostatic load, an index of physiological dysregulation, and the potential mediating role of substance use. Method: Participants (n = 162) were rural children from New York...... cardiovascular, hypothalamic pituitary adrenal axis, sympathetic adrenal medullary system, and metabolic activity. Smoking and alcohol/drug use were tested as mediators of the hypothesized childhood risk-adolescent allostatic load relationship. Results: Cumulative risk exposure at age 9 predicted increases...

  8. Neurorestoratology evidence in an animal model with cervical spondylotic myelopathy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li X

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Xiang Li,1,2 Guangsheng Li,1,3 Keith Dip-Kei Luk,1 Yong Hu1–3 1Department of Orthopaedics and Traumatology, The University of Hong Kong, Pokfulam, Hong Kong, 2Shenzhen Key Laboratory for Innovative Technology in Orthopaedic Trauma, The University of Hong Kong-Shenzhen Hospital, Shenzhen, 3Spinal Division, Department of Orthopaedics, Affiliated Hospital of Guangdong Medical University, Guangdong, People’s Republic of China Background: Cervical spondylotic myelopathy (CSM is a chronic compression injury of the spinal cord, with potentially reversible conditions after surgical decompression, and a unique model of incomplete spinal cord injury. Several animal studies showed pathological changes of demyelination, axon loss and neuron apoptosis in rats with chronic spinal cord compression. However, there is a limited understanding of the neurological change in the spinal cord after surgical decompression. The aim of this study was to validate the neurorestoratology of myelopathic lesions in the spinal cord in a rat model. Materials and methods: A total of 16 adult Sprague-Dawley rats were divided into four groups: sham control (group 1; CSM model with 4-week chronic compression (group 2, 2 weeks (group 3 and 4 weeks (group 4 after surgical decompression of CSM model. The compression and decompression were verified by magnetic resonance imaging (MRI test. Neurological function was evaluated by Basso, Beattie, and Bresnahan (BBB locomotor rating scale, ladder rung walking test and somatosensory-evoked potentials (SEPs. Neuropathological change was evaluated by histological examinations. Results: MRI confirmed the compression of the cervical spinal cord as well as the reshaping of cord morphology after decompression. After decompression, significant changes of neurological function were observed in BBB scores (p < 0.01, F = 10.52, ladder rung walking test (p < 0.05, F = 14.21 and latencies (p < 0.05, F = 5.76 and amplitudes (p < 0.05, F = 3.8 of

  9. Sikap Kerja Duduk Terhadap Cumulative Trauma Disorder

    OpenAIRE

    Rahmawati, Yulita; Sugiharto, -

    2011-01-01

    Permasalahan yang diteliti adalah adakah hubungan antara sikap kerja duduk dengan kejadian Cumulative Trauma Disorder (CTD) pada pekerja bagian pengamplasan di PT. Geromar Jepara. Tujuan yang ingin dicapai adalah untuk mengetahui hubungan antara sikap kerja duduk dengan kejadian CTD pada pekerja bagian pengamplasan. Metode penelitian ini bersifat explanatory dengan menggunakan pendekatan belah lintang. Populasi dalam penelitian ini adalah pekerja bagian pengamplasan sebanyak 30 orang. Teknik ...

  10. Power Reactor Docket Information. Annual cumulation (citations)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1977-12-01

    An annual cumulation of the citations to the documentation associated with civilian nuclear power plants is presented. This material is that which is submitted to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission in support of applications for construction and operating licenses. Citations are listed by Docket number in accession number sequence. The Table of Contents is arranged both by Docket number and by nuclear power plant name

  11. Cumulative Effect of Depression on Dementia Risk

    OpenAIRE

    Olazarán, J.; Trincado, R.; Bermejo-Pareja, F.

    2013-01-01

    Objective. To analyze a potential cumulative effect of life-time depression on dementia and Alzheimer's disease (AD), with control of vascular factors (VFs). Methods. This study was a subanalysis of the Neurological Disorders in Central Spain (NEDICES) study. Past and present depression, VFs, dementia status, and dementia due to AD were documented at study inception. Dementia status was also documented after three years. Four groups were created according to baseline data: never depression (n...

  12. Cumulative release to the accessible environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kanehiro, B.

    1985-01-01

    The Containment and Isolation Working Group considered issues related to the postclosure behavior of repositories in crystalline rock. This working group was further divided into subgroups to consider the progress since the 1978 GAIN Symposium and identify research needs in the individual areas of regional ground-water flow, ground-water travel time, fractional release, and cumulative release. The analysis and findings of the Fractional Release Subgroup are presented

  13. Appraisals Generate Specific Configurations of Facial Muscle Movements in a Gambling Task: Evidence for the Component Process Model of Emotion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gentsch, Kornelia; Grandjean, Didier; Scherer, Klaus R

    2015-01-01

    Scherer's Component Process Model provides a theoretical framework for research on the production mechanism of emotion and facial emotional expression. The model predicts that appraisal results drive facial expressions, which unfold sequentially and cumulatively over time. In two experiments, we examined facial muscle activity changes (via facial electromyography recordings over the corrugator, cheek, and frontalis regions) in response to events in a gambling task. These events were experimentally manipulated feedback stimuli which presented simultaneous information directly affecting goal conduciveness (gambling outcome: win, loss, or break-even) and power appraisals (Experiment 1 and 2), as well as control appraisal (Experiment 2). We repeatedly found main effects of goal conduciveness (starting ~600 ms), and power appraisals (starting ~800 ms after feedback onset). Control appraisal main effects were inconclusive. Interaction effects of goal conduciveness and power appraisals were obtained in both experiments (Experiment 1: over the corrugator and cheek regions; Experiment 2: over the frontalis region) suggesting amplified goal conduciveness effects when power was high in contrast to invariant goal conduciveness effects when power was low. Also an interaction of goal conduciveness and control appraisals was found over the cheek region, showing differential goal conduciveness effects when control was high and invariant effects when control was low. These interaction effects suggest that the appraisal of having sufficient control or power affects facial responses towards gambling outcomes. The result pattern suggests that corrugator and frontalis regions are primarily related to cognitive operations that process motivational pertinence, whereas the cheek region would be more influenced by coping implications. Our results provide first evidence demonstrating that cognitive-evaluative mechanisms related to goal conduciveness, control, and power appraisals affect

  14. Globular cluster metallicity scale: evidence from stellar models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Demarque, P.; King, C.R.; Diaz, A.

    1982-01-01

    Theoretical giant branches have been constructed to determine their relative positions for metallicities in the range -2.3 0 )/sub 0,g/ based on these models is presented which yields good agreement over the observed range of metallicities for galactic globular clusters and old disk clusters. The metallicity of 47 Tuc and M71 given by this calibration is about -0.8 dex. Subject headings: clusters, globular: stars: abundances: stars: interiors

  15. EPA Workshop on Epigenetics and Cumulative Risk ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agenda Download the Workshop Agenda (PDF) The workshop included presentations and discussions by scientific experts pertaining to three topics (i.e., epigenetic changes associated with diverse stressors, key science considerations in understanding epigenetic changes, and practical application of epigenetic tools to address cumulative risks from environmental stressors), to address several questions under each topic, and included an opportunity for attendees to participate in break-out groups, provide comments and ask questions. Workshop Goals The workshop seeks to examine the opportunity for use of aggregate epigenetic change as an indicator in cumulative risk assessment for populations exposed to multiple stressors that affect epigenetic status. Epigenetic changes are specific molecular changes around DNA that alter expression of genes. Epigenetic changes include DNA methylation, formation of histone adducts, and changes in micro RNAs. Research today indicates that epigenetic changes are involved in many chronic diseases (cancer, cardiovascular disease, obesity, diabetes, mental health disorders, and asthma). Research has also linked a wide range of stressors including pollution and social factors with occurrence of epigenetic alterations. Epigenetic changes have the potential to reflect impacts of risk factors across multiple stages of life. Only recently receiving attention is the nexus between the factors of cumulative exposure to environmental

  16. Cumulative irritation potential of topical retinoid formulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leyden, James J; Grossman, Rachel; Nighland, Marge

    2008-08-01

    Localized irritation can limit treatment success with topical retinoids such as tretinoin and adapalene. The factors that influence irritant reactions have been shown to include individual skin sensitivity, the particular retinoid and concentration used, and the vehicle formulation. To compare the cutaneous tolerability of tretinoin 0.04% microsphere gel (TMG) with that of adapalene 0.3% gel and a standard tretinoin 0.025% cream. The results of 2 randomized, investigator-blinded studies of 2 to 3 weeks' duration, which utilized a split-face method to compare cumulative irritation scores induced by topical retinoids in subjects with healthy skin, were combined. Study 1 compared TMG 0.04% with adapalene 0.3% gel over 2 weeks, while study 2 compared TMG 0.04% with tretinoin 0.025% cream over 3 weeks. In study 1, TMG 0.04% was associated with significantly lower cumulative scores for erythema, dryness, and burning/stinging than adapalene 0.3% gel. However, in study 2, there were no significant differences in cumulative irritation scores between TMG 0.04% and tretinoin 0.025% cream. Measurements of erythema by a chromameter showed no significant differences between the test formulations in either study. Cutaneous tolerance of TMG 0.04% on the face was superior to that of adapalene 0.3% gel and similar to that of a standard tretinoin cream containing a lower concentration of the drug (0.025%).

  17. A stochastic multicriteria model for evidence-based decision making in drug benefit-risk analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tervonen, Tommi; van Valkenhoef, Gert; Buskens, Erik; Hillege, Hans L.; Postmus, Douwe

    2011-01-01

    Drug benefit-risk (BR) analysis is based on firm clinical evidence regarding various safety and efficacy outcomes. In this paper, we propose a new and more formal approach for constructing a supporting multicriteria model that fully takes into account the evidence on efficacy and adverse drug

  18. MODELING MONETARY POLICY RULES IN THE MENACOUNTRIES: ISSUES AND EVIDENCE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohamad Husam Helmi

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper estimates the monetary policy reaction function for two sets of MENAcountries: The inflation target countries, (Turkeyand Israel and the exchange ratetarget countries, (Jordan and Morocco. We motivateour empirical analysis byanalyzing a simple Taylor rule. This model looks atthe effects of inflation andoutput on setting the interest rate by the centralbank. Furthermore, we extendedour model by adding the exchange rate and the foreign interest rate using similarmodel used by Clarida et al (1998 with using GMM estimator.Findings of this study yield some interesting results,all the central banks in thesample uses interest rate smoothing in managing their monetary policy. Inaddition, The Central bank in Turkey, Israel and Morocco focuses on achievinglow level of inflation. On the other hand, the Monetary Authority in Jordan caresabout stabilizing the output gap. Estimating the extended Taylor rule suggests thehighly significant effect of foreign interest rateon setting the interest rate inTurkey. Taken all together, the results lend support to the importance of followinga rule rather than discretionary in reducing the inflation rate and crediblemonetary policy. In addition, the simple Taylor rule can be applied on MENAcountries but it requires some modification such asadding the exchange rate andthe foreign interest rate.

  19. Modeling of intracerebral interictal epileptic discharges: Evidence for network interactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meesters, Stephan; Ossenblok, Pauly; Colon, Albert; Wagner, Louis; Schijns, Olaf; Boon, Paul; Florack, Luc; Fuster, Andrea

    2018-06-01

    The interictal epileptic discharges (IEDs) occurring in stereotactic EEG (SEEG) recordings are in general abundant compared to ictal discharges, but difficult to interpret due to complex underlying network interactions. A framework is developed to model these network interactions. To identify the synchronized neuronal activity underlying the IEDs, the variation in correlation over time of the SEEG signals is related to the occurrence of IEDs using the general linear model. The interdependency is assessed of the brain areas that reflect highly synchronized neural activity by applying independent component analysis, followed by cluster analysis of the spatial distributions of the independent components. The spatiotemporal interactions of the spike clusters reveal the leading or lagging of brain areas. The analysis framework was evaluated for five successfully operated patients, showing that the spike cluster that was related to the MRI-visible brain lesions coincided with the seizure onset zone. The additional value of the framework was demonstrated for two more patients, who were MRI-negative and for whom surgery was not successful. A network approach is promising in case of complex epilepsies. Analysis of IEDs is considered a valuable addition to routine review of SEEG recordings, with the potential to increase the success rate of epilepsy surgery. Copyright © 2018 International Federation of Clinical Neurophysiology. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. Does malaria affect placental development? Evidence from in vitro models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandra J Umbers

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Malaria in early pregnancy is difficult to study but has recently been associated with fetal growth restriction (FGR. The pathogenic mechanisms underlying malarial FGR are poorly characterized, but may include impaired placental development. We used in vitro methods that model migration and invasion of placental trophoblast into the uterine wall to investigate whether soluble factors released into maternal blood in malaria infection might impair placental development. Because trophoblast invasion is enhanced by a number of hormones and chemokines, and is inhibited by pro-inflammatory cytokines, many of which are dysregulated in malaria in pregnancy, we further compared concentrations of these factors in blood between malaria-infected and uninfected pregnancies. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We measured trophoblast invasion, migration and viability in response to treatment with serum or plasma from two independent cohorts of Papua New Guinean women infected with Plasmodium falciparum or Plasmodium vivax in early pregnancy. Compared to uninfected women, serum and plasma from women with P. falciparum reduced trophoblast invasion (P = .06 and migration (P = .004. P. vivax infection did not alter trophoblast migration (P = .64. The P. falciparum-specific negative effect on placental development was independent of trophoblast viability, but associated with high-density infections. Serum from P. falciparum infected women tended to have lower levels of trophoblast invasion promoting hormones and factors and higher levels of invasion-inhibitory inflammatory factors. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: We demonstrate that in vitro models of placental development can be adapted to indirectly study the impact of malaria in early pregnancy. These infections could result in impaired trophoblast invasion with reduced transformation of maternal spiral arteries due to maternal hormonal and inflammatory disturbances, which may contribute to FGR by

  1. Financial power laws: Empirical evidence, models, and mechanisms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lux, Thomas; Alfarano, Simone

    2016-01-01

    Financial markets (share markets, foreign exchange markets and others) are all characterized by a number of universal power laws. The most prominent example is the ubiquitous finding of a robust, approximately cubic power law characterizing the distribution of large returns. A similarly robust feature is long-range dependence in volatility (i.e., hyperbolic decline of its autocorrelation function). The recent literature adds temporal scaling of trading volume and multi-scaling of higher moments of returns. Increasing awareness of these properties has recently spurred attempts at theoretical explanations of the emergence of these key characteristics form the market process. In principle, different types of dynamic processes could be responsible for these power-laws. Examples to be found in the economics literature include multiplicative stochastic processes as well as dynamic processes with multiple equilibria. Though both types of dynamics are characterized by intermittent behavior which occasionally generates large bursts of activity, they can be based on fundamentally different perceptions of the trading process. The present paper reviews both the analytical background of the power laws emerging from the above data generating mechanisms as well as pertinent models proposed in the economics literature.

  2. Extending the relationship between global warming and cumulative carbon emissions to multi-millennial timescales

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frölicher, Thomas L; Paynter, David J

    2015-01-01

    The transient climate response to cumulative carbon emissions (TCRE) is a highly policy-relevant quantity in climate science. The TCRE suggests that peak warming is linearly proportional to cumulative carbon emissions and nearly independent of the emissions scenario. Here, we use simulations of the Earth System Model (ESM) from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) to show that global mean surface temperature may increase by 0.5 °C after carbon emissions are stopped at 2 °C global warming, implying an increase in the coefficient relating global warming to cumulative carbon emissions on multi-centennial timescales. The simulations also suggest a 20% lower quota on cumulative carbon emissions allowed to achieve a policy-driven limit on global warming. ESM estimates from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5–ESMs) qualitatively agree on this result, whereas Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs) simulations, used in the IPCC 5th assessment report to assess the robustness of TCRE on multi-centennial timescales, suggest a post-emissions decrease in temperature. The reason for this discrepancy lies in the smaller simulated realized warming fraction in CMIP5–ESMs, including GFDL ESM2M, than in EMICs when carbon emissions increase. The temperature response to cumulative carbon emissions can be characterized by three different phases and the linear TCRE framework is only valid during the first phase when carbon emissions increase. For longer timescales, when emissions tape off, two new metrics are introduced that better characterize the time-dependent temperature response to cumulative carbon emissions: the equilibrium climate response to cumulative carbon emissions and the multi-millennial climate response to cumulative carbon emissions. (letter)

  3. Chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes) and the question of cumulative culture: an experimental approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marshall-Pescini, Sarah; Whiten, Andrew

    2008-07-01

    There is increasing evidence for cultural variations in behaviour among non-human species, but human societies additionally display elaborate cumulative cultural evolution, with successive generations building on earlier achievements. Evidence for cumulative culture in non-human species remains minimal and controversial. Relevant experiments are also lacking. Here we present a first experiment designed to examine chimpanzees' capacity for cumulative social learning. Eleven young chimpanzees were presented with a foraging device, which afforded both a relatively simple and a more complex tool-use technique for extracting honey. The more complex 'probing' technique incorporated the core actions of the simpler 'dipping' one and was also much more productive. In a baseline, exploration condition only two subjects discovered the dipping technique and a solitary instance of probing occurred. Demonstrations of dipping by a familiar human were followed by acquisition of this technique by the five subjects aged three years or above, whilst younger subjects showed a significant increase only in the elements of the dipping technique. By contrast, subsequent demonstrations of the probing task were not followed by acquisition of this more productive technique. Subjects stuck to their habitual dipping method despite an escalating series of demonstrations eventually exceeding 200. Supplementary tests showed this technique is within the capability of chimpanzees of this age. We therefore tentatively conclude that young chimpanzees exhibit a tendency to become 'stuck' on a technique they initially learn, inhibiting cumulative social learning and possibly constraining the species' capacity for cumulative cultural evolution.

  4. Cumulant expansions for measuring water exchange using diffusion MRI

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ning, Lipeng; Nilsson, Markus; Lasič, Samo; Westin, Carl-Fredrik; Rathi, Yogesh

    2018-02-01

    The rate of water exchange across cell membranes is a parameter of biological interest and can be measured by diffusion magnetic resonance imaging (dMRI). In this work, we investigate a stochastic model for the diffusion-and-exchange of water molecules. This model provides a general solution for the temporal evolution of dMRI signal using any type of gradient waveform, thereby generalizing the signal expressions for the Kärger model. Moreover, we also derive a general nth order cumulant expansion of the dMRI signal accounting for water exchange, which has not been explored in earlier studies. Based on this analytical expression, we compute the cumulant expansion for dMRI signals for the special case of single diffusion encoding (SDE) and double diffusion encoding (DDE) sequences. Our results provide a theoretical guideline on optimizing experimental parameters for SDE and DDE sequences, respectively. Moreover, we show that DDE signals are more sensitive to water exchange at short-time scale but provide less attenuation at long-time scale than SDE signals. Our theoretical analysis is also validated using Monte Carlo simulations on synthetic structures.

  5. A Cumulant-based Analysis of Nonlinear Magnetospheric Dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johnson, Jay R.; Wing, Simon

    2004-01-01

    Understanding magnetospheric dynamics and predicting future behavior of the magnetosphere is of great practical interest because it could potentially help to avert catastrophic loss of power and communications. In order to build good predictive models it is necessary to understand the most critical nonlinear dependencies among observed plasma and electromagnetic field variables in the coupled solar wind/magnetosphere system. In this work, we apply a cumulant-based information dynamical measure to characterize the nonlinear dynamics underlying the time evolution of the Dst and Kp geomagnetic indices, given solar wind magnetic field and plasma input. We examine the underlying dynamics of the system, the temporal statistical dependencies, the degree of nonlinearity, and the rate of information loss. We find a significant solar cycle dependence in the underlying dynamics of the system with greater nonlinearity for solar minimum. The cumulant-based approach also has the advantage that it is reliable even in the case of small data sets and therefore it is possible to avoid the assumption of stationarity, which allows for a measure of predictability even when the underlying system dynamics may change character. Evaluations of several leading Kp prediction models indicate that their performances are sub-optimal during active times. We discuss possible improvements of these models based on this nonparametric approach

  6. Cumulative Advantage in the Skill Development of STEM Graduate Students: A Mixed-Methods Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feldon, David F.; Maher, Michelle A.; Roksa, Josipa; Peugh, James

    2016-01-01

    Studies of skill development often describe a process of cumulative advantage, in which small differences in initial skill compound over time, leading to increasing skill gaps between those with an initial advantage and those without. We offer evidence of a similar phenomenon accounting for differential patterns of research skill development in…

  7. Bayesian evidences for dark energy models in light of current observational data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lonappan, Anto. I.; Kumar, Sumit; Ruchika; Dinda, Bikash R.; Sen, Anjan A.

    2018-02-01

    We do a comprehensive study of the Bayesian evidences for a large number of dark energy models using a combination of latest cosmological data from SNIa, CMB, BAO, strong lensing time delay, growth measurements, measurements of Hubble parameter at different redshifts and measurements of angular diameter distance by Megamaser Cosmology Project. We consider a variety of scalar field models with different potentials as well as different parametrizations for the dark energy equation of state. Among 21 models that we consider in our study, we do not find strong evidences in favor of any evolving dark energy model compared to Λ CDM . For the evolving dark energy models, we show that purely nonphantom models have much better evidences compared to those models that allow both phantom and nonphantom behaviors. Canonical scalar field with exponential and tachyon field with square potential have highest evidences among all the models considered in this work. We also show that a combination of low redshift measurements decisively favors an accelerating Λ CDM model compared to a nonaccelerating power law model.

  8. Rainfall Intensity and Frequency Explain Production Basis Risk in Cumulative Rain Index Insurance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muneepeerakul, Chitsomanus P.; Muneepeerakul, Rachata; Huffaker, Ray G.

    2017-12-01

    With minimal moral hazard and adverse selection, weather index insurance promises financial resilience to farmers struck by harsh weather conditions through swift compensation at affordable premium. Despite these advantages, the very nature of indexing gives rise to production basis risk as the selected weather indexes do not sufficiently correspond to actual damages. To address this problem, we develop a stochastic yield model, built upon a stochastic soil moisture model driven by marked Poisson rainfall. Our analysis shows that even under similar temperature and rainfall amount yields can differ significantly; this was empirically supported by a 2-year field experiment in which rain-fed maize was grown under very similar total rainfall. Here, the year with more intense, less-frequent rainfall produces a better yield—a rare counter evidence to most climate change projections. Through a stochastic yield model, we demonstrate the crucial roles of rainfall intensity and frequency in determining the yield. Importantly, the model allows us to compute rainfall pattern-related basis risk inherent in cumulative rain index insurance. The model results and a case study herein clearly show that total rainfall is a poor indicator of yield, imposing unnecessary production basis risk on farmers and false-positive payouts on insurers. Incorporating rainfall intensity and frequency in the design of rain index insurance can offer farmers better protection, while maintaining the attractive features of the weather index insurance and thus fulfilling its promise of financial resilience.

  9. On interference of cumulative proton production mechanisms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Braun, M.A.; Vechernin, V.V.

    1993-01-01

    The dynamical picture of the cumulative proton production in hA-collisions by means of diagram analysis with NN interaction described by a non-relativistic NN potential is considered. The contributions of the various mechanisms (spectator, direct and rescattering) for backward hemisphere proton production within the framework of this common approach is calculated. The emphasis is on the comparison of the relative contributions of these mechanisms for various angles, taking into account the interference of these contributions. Comparison with experimental data is also presented. (author)

  10. Preserved cumulative semantic interference despite amnesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gary Michael Oppenheim

    2015-05-01

    As predicted by Oppenheim et al’s (2010 implicit incremental learning account, WRP’s BCN RTs demonstrated strong (and significant repetition priming and semantic blocking effects (Figure 1. Similar to typical results from neurally intact undergraduates, WRP took longer to name pictures presented in semantically homogeneous blocks than in heterogeneous blocks, an effect that increased with each cycle. This result challenges accounts that ascribe cumulative semantic interference in this task to explicit memory mechanisms, instead suggesting that the effect has the sort of implicit learning bases that are typically spared in hippocampal amnesia.

  11. Is cumulated pyrethroid exposure associated with prediabetes?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Martin Rune; Jørs, Erik; Lander, Flemming

    2014-01-01

    was to investigate an association between exposure to pyrethroids and abnormal glucose regulation (prediabetes or diabetes). A cross-sectional study was performed among 116 pesticide sprayers from public vector control programs in Bolivia and 92 nonexposed controls. Pesticide exposure (duration, intensity...... pyrethroids, a significant positive trend was observed between cumulative pesticide exposure (total number of hours sprayed) and adjusted OR of abnormal glucose regulation, with OR 14.7 [0.9-235] in the third exposure quintile. The study found a severely increased prevalence of prediabetes among Bolivian...

  12. Testing multi-alternative decision models with non-stationary evidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsetsos, Konstantinos; Usher, Marius; McClelland, James L

    2011-01-01

    Recent research has investigated the process of integrating perceptual evidence toward a decision, converging on a number of sequential sampling choice models, such as variants of race and diffusion models and the non-linear leaky competing accumulator (LCA) model. Here we study extensions of these models to multi-alternative choice, considering how well they can account for data from a psychophysical experiment in which the evidence supporting each of the alternatives changes dynamically during the trial, in a way that creates temporal correlations. We find that participants exhibit a tendency to choose an alternative whose evidence profile is temporally anti-correlated with (or dissimilar from) that of other alternatives. This advantage of the anti-correlated alternative is well accounted for in the LCA, and provides constraints that challenge several other models of multi-alternative choice.

  13. Shale Gas Development and Brook Trout: Scaling Best Management Practices to Anticipate Cumulative Effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, David; Snyder, Craig D.; Hitt, Nathaniel P.; Young, John A.; Faulkner, Stephen P.

    2012-01-01

    Shale gas development may involve trade-offs between energy development and benefits provided by natural ecosystems. However, current best management practices (BMPs) focus on mitigating localized ecological degradation. We review evidence for cumulative effects of natural gas development on brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) and conclude that BMPs should account for potential watershed-scale effects in addition to localized influences. The challenge is to develop BMPs in the face of uncertainty in the predicted response of brook trout to landscape-scale disturbance caused by gas extraction. We propose a decision-analysis approach to formulating BMPs in the specific case of relatively undisturbed watersheds where there is consensus to maintain brook trout populations during gas development. The decision analysis was informed by existing empirical models that describe brook trout occupancy responses to landscape disturbance and set bounds on the uncertainty in the predicted responses to shale gas development. The decision analysis showed that a high efficiency of gas development (e.g., 1 well pad per square mile and 7 acres per pad) was critical to achieving a win-win solution characterized by maintaining brook trout and maximizing extraction of available gas. This finding was invariant to uncertainty in predicted response of brook trout to watershed-level disturbance. However, as the efficiency of gas development decreased, the optimal BMP depended on the predicted response, and there was considerable potential value in discriminating among predictive models through adaptive management or research. The proposed decision-analysis framework provides an opportunity to anticipate the cumulative effects of shale gas development, account for uncertainty, and inform management decisions at the appropriate spatial scales.

  14. Chapter 19. Cumulative watershed effects and watershed analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leslie M. Reid

    1998-01-01

    Cumulative watershed effects are environmental changes that are affected by more than.one land-use activity and that are influenced by.processes involving the generation or transport.of water. Almost all environmental changes are.cumulative effects, and almost all land-use.activities contribute to cumulative effects

  15. Original and cumulative prospect theory: a discussion of empirical differences

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wakker, P.P.; Fennema, H.

    1997-01-01

    This note discusses differences between prospect theory and cumulative prospect theory. It shows that cumulative prospect theory is not merely a formal correction of some theoretical problems in prospect theory, but it also gives different predictions. Experiments are described that favor cumulative

  16. Cumulative Environmental Management Association : Wood Buffalo Region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Friesen, B.

    2001-01-01

    The recently announced oil sands development of the Wood Buffalo Region in Alberta was the focus of this power point presentation. Both mining and in situ development is expected to total $26 billion and 2.6 million barrels per day of bitumen production. This paper described the economic, social and environmental challenges facing the resource development of this region. In addition to the proposed oil sands projects, this region will accommodate the needs of conventional oil and gas production, forestry, building of pipelines and power lines, municipal development, recreation, tourism, mining exploration and open cast mining. The Cumulative Environmental Management Association (CEMA) was inaugurated as a non-profit association in April 2000, and includes 41 members from all sectors. Its major role is to ensure a sustainable ecosystem and to avoid any cumulative impacts on wildlife. Other work underway includes the study of soil and plant species diversity, and the effects of air emissions on human health, wildlife and vegetation. The bioaccumulation of heavy metals and their impacts on surface water and fish is also under consideration to ensure the quality and quantity of surface water and ground water. 3 figs

  17. Maternal distress and parenting in the context of cumulative disadvantage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arditti, Joyce; Burton, Linda; Neeves-Botelho, Sara

    2010-06-01

    This article presents an emergent conceptual model of the features and links between cumulative disadvantage, maternal distress, and parenting practices in low-income families in which parental incarceration has occurred. The model emerged from the integration of extant conceptual and empirical research with grounded theory analysis of longitudinal ethnographic data from Welfare, Children, and Families: A Three-City Study. Fourteen exemplar family cases were used in the analysis. Results indicated that mothers in these families experienced life in the context of cumulative disadvantage, reporting a cascade of difficulties characterized by neighborhood worries, provider concerns, bureaucratic difficulties, violent intimate relationships, and the inability to meet children's needs. Mothers, however, also had an intense desire to protect their children, and to make up for past mistakes. Although, in response to high levels of maternal distress and disadvantage, most mothers exhibited harsh discipline of their children, some mothers transformed their distress by advocating for their children under difficult circumstances. Women's use of harsh discipline and advocacy was not necessarily an "either/or" phenomenon as half of the mothers included in our analysis exhibited both harsh discipline and care/advocacy behaviors. Maternal distress characterized by substance use, while connected to harsh disciplinary behavior, did not preclude mothers engaging in positive parenting behaviors.

  18. Evidence-Based Adequacy Model for School Funding: Success Rates in Illinois Schools that Meet Targets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murphy, Gregory J.

    2012-01-01

    This quantitative study explores the 2010 recommendation of the Educational Funding Advisory Board to consider the Evidence-Based Adequacy model of school funding in Illinois. This school funding model identifies and costs research based practices necessary in a prototypical school and sets funding levels based upon those practices. This study…

  19. Structural reliability analysis under evidence theory using the active learning kriging model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Xufeng; Liu, Yongshou; Ma, Panke

    2017-11-01

    Structural reliability analysis under evidence theory is investigated. It is rigorously proved that a surrogate model providing only correct sign prediction of the performance function can meet the accuracy requirement of evidence-theory-based reliability analysis. Accordingly, a method based on the active learning kriging model which only correctly predicts the sign of the performance function is proposed. Interval Monte Carlo simulation and a modified optimization method based on Karush-Kuhn-Tucker conditions are introduced to make the method more efficient in estimating the bounds of failure probability based on the kriging model. Four examples are investigated to demonstrate the efficiency and accuracy of the proposed method.

  20. Automated Eukaryotic Gene Structure Annotation Using EVidenceModeler and the Program to Assemble Spliced Alignments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Haas, B J; Salzberg, S L; Zhu, W; Pertea, M; Allen, J E; Orvis, J; White, O; Buell, C R; Wortman, J R

    2007-12-10

    EVidenceModeler (EVM) is presented as an automated eukaryotic gene structure annotation tool that reports eukaryotic gene structures as a weighted consensus of all available evidence. EVM, when combined with the Program to Assemble Spliced Alignments (PASA), yields a comprehensive, configurable annotation system that predicts protein-coding genes and alternatively spliced isoforms. Our experiments on both rice and human genome sequences demonstrate that EVM produces automated gene structure annotation approaching the quality of manual curation.

  1. Evidence-based management of otitis media: a 5S model approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wasson, J D; Yung, M W

    2015-02-01

    The 5S model proposes five hierarchical levels (systems, summaries, synopses, syntheses and studies) of pre-appraised evidence to guide evidence-based practice. This review aimed to identify and summarise pre-appraised evidence at the highest available 5S level for the management of different subsets of otitis media: acute otitis media, otitis media with effusion, chronic suppurative otitis media and cholesteatoma in both adults and children. Data sources were pre-appraised evidence resources. Evidence freely available from sources at the highest available level of the 5S model were summarised for this review. System level evidence exists for acute otitis media and otitis media with effusion. Summary level evidence exists for recurrent acute otitis media and medical management of chronic suppurative otitis media. There is an absence of randomised controlled trials to prove the efficacy of surgical management of chronic suppurative otitis media and cholesteatoma. Until randomised controlled trial data are generated, consensus publications on the surgical management of chronic suppurative otitis media and cholesteatoma should be used to guide best practice.

  2. Cumulative receipt of an anti-poverty tax credit for families did not impact tobacco smoking among parents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pega, Frank; Gilsanz, Paola; Kawachi, Ichiro; Wilson, Nick; Blakely, Tony

    2017-04-01

    The effect of anti-poverty tax credit interventions on tobacco consumption is unclear. Previous studies have estimated short-term effects, did not isolate the effects of cumulative dose of tax credits, produced conflicting results, and used methods with limited control for some time-varying confounders (e.g., those affected by prior treatment) and treatment regimen (i.e., study participants' tax credit receipt pattern over time). We estimated the longer-term, cumulative effect of New Zealand's Family Tax Credit (FTC) on tobacco consumption, using a natural experiment (administrative errors leading to exogenous variation in FTC receipt) and methods specifically for controlling confounding, reverse causation, and treatment regimen. We extracted seven waves (2002-2009) of the nationally representative Survey of Family, Income and Employment including 4404 working-age (18-65 years) parents in families. The exposure was the total numbers of years of receiving FTC. The outcomes were regular smoking and the average daily number of cigarettes usually smoked at wave 7. We estimated average treatment effects using inverse probability of treatment weighting and marginal structural modelling. Each additional year of receiving FTC affected neither the odds of regular tobacco smoking among all parents (odds ratio 1.02, 95% confidence interval 0.94-1.11), nor the number of cigarettes smoked among parents who smoked regularly (rate ratio 1.01, 95% confidence interval 0.99-1.03). We found no evidence for an association between the cumulative number of years of receiving an anti-poverty tax credit and tobacco smoking or consumption among parents. The assumptions of marginal structural modelling are quite demanding, and we therefore cannot rule out residual confounding. Nonetheless, our results suggest that tax credit programme participation will not increase tobacco consumption among poor parents, at least in this high-income country. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights

  3. Cumulative effects of road de-icing salt on amphibian behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denoël, Mathieu; Bichot, Marion; Ficetola, Gentile Francesco; Delcourt, Johann; Ylieff, Marc; Kestemont, Patrick; Poncin, Pascal

    2010-08-15

    Despite growing evidence of the detrimental effect of chemical substances on organisms, limited research has focused on changes in behavioral patterns, in part due to the difficulties to obtain detailed quantitative data. Recent developments in efficient computer-based video analyses have allowed testing pesticide effects on model species such as the zebrafish. However, these new techniques have not yet been applied to amphibians and directly to conservation issues, i.e., to assess toxicological risks on threatened species. We used video-tracking analyses to test a quantitative effect of an environmental contaminant on the locomotion of amphibian tadpoles (Rana temporaria) by taking into account cumulative effects. Because recent research has demonstrated effects of de-icing salts on survival and community structure, we used sodium chloride in our experimental design (25 replicates, 4 concentrations, 4 times) to test for an effect at the scale of behavior at environmentally relevant concentrations. Analysis of 372 1-h video-tracks (5 samples/s) showed a complex action of salts on behavioral patterns with a dose and cumulative response over time. Although no effects were found on mortality or growth, the highest salt concentrations reduced the speed and movement of tadpoles in comparison with control treatments. The reduced locomotor performance could have detrimental consequences in terms of tadpoles' responses to competition and predation and may be an indicator of the low concentration effect of the contaminant. On one hand, this study demonstrates the usefulness of examining behavior to address conservation issues and understand the complex action of environmental factors and, more particularly, pollutants on organisms. On the other hand, our results highlight the need of new computerized techniques to quantitatively analyze these patterns. (c) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Analysis of cumulative energy consumption in an oxy-fuel combustion power plant integrated with a CO2 processing unit

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ziębik, Andrzej; Gładysz, Paweł

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Oxy-fuel combustion is promising CCS technology. • Sum of direct and indirect energy consumption ought to be consider. • This sum is expressed by cumulative energy consumption. • Input–output analysis is adequate method of CCS modeling. - Abstract: A balance of direct energy consumption is not a sufficient tool for an energy analysis of an oxy-fuel combustion power plant because of the indirect consumption of energy in preceding processes in the energy-technological set of interconnections. The sum of direct and indirect consumption expresses cumulative energy consumption. Based on the “input–output” model of direct energy consumption the mathematical model of cumulative energy consumption concerning an integrated oxy-fuel combustion power plant has been developed. Three groups of energy carriers or materials are to be distinguished, viz. main products, by-products and external supplies not supplementing the main production. The mathematical model of the balance of cumulative energy consumption based on the assumption that the indices of cumulative energy consumption of external supplies (mainly fuels and raw materials) are known a’priori. It results from weak connections between domestic economy and an integrated oxy-fuel combustion power plant. The paper presents both examples of the balances of direct and cumulative energy consumption. The results of calculations of indices of cumulative energy consumption concerning main products are presented. A comparison of direct and cumulative energy effects between three variants has been worked out. Calculations of the indices of cumulative energy consumption were also subjected to sensitive analysis. The influence of the indices of cumulative energy consumption of external supplies (input data), as well as the assumption concerning the utilization of solid by-products of the combustion process have been investigated

  5. Incorporating cumulative effects into environmental assessments of mariculture: Limitations and failures of current siting methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    King, Sarah C.; Pushchak, Ronald

    2008-01-01

    Assessing and evaluating the cumulative impacts of multiple marine aquaculture facilities has proved difficult in environmental assessment. A retrospective review of 23 existing mariculture farms in southwestern New Brunswick was conducted to determine whether cumulative interactions would have justified site approvals. Based on current scientific evidence of cumulative effects, six new criteria were added to a set of far-field impacts and other existing criteria were expanded to include regional and cumulative environmental impacts in Hargrave's [Hargrave BT. A traffic light decision system for marine finfish aquaculture siting. Ocean Coast Manag 2002; 45:215-35.] Traffic Light Decision Support System (DSS) presently used in Canadian aquaculture environmental assessments. Before mitigation, 19 of the 23 sites failed the amended set of criteria and after considering mitigation, 8 sites failed. Site and ecosystem indices yielded varying site acceptability scores; however, many sites would not have been approved if siting decisions had been made within a regional management framework and cumulative impact criteria were considered in the site evaluation process

  6. Cumulative trauma, gender discrimination and mental health in women: mediating role of self-esteem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kucharska, Justyna

    2017-12-20

    Evidence suggests that women show symptoms of trauma-related symptoms more often than men. Gender discrimination is also associated with the severity of symptoms in women. This study explored the relations among cumulative trauma, gender discrimination and mental health in women with a mediating role of self-esteem and emotion regulation. Two types of gender discrimination were taken into account: discrimination by parents and in the social context. Cumulative trauma over the lifetime was assessed, as well as three types of symptoms: internalising, externalising, psychoticism. A total of 277 females from Poland participated in the study. It was hypothesised that gender discrimination and cumulative trauma would be positively related to symptoms and that lowered self-esteem mediates these relations. Hypotheses received partial confirmation, as both gender discrimination and cumulative trauma have been shown to be related to three types of symptoms. Self-esteem was a partial mediator between gender discrimination in the social context and symptoms. It was also demonstrated that emotion suppression is a partial mediator between cumulative trauma and symptoms. It has been demonstrated that socio-cultural factors, such as gender discrimination, play an important role in psychiatric symptoms development.

  7. Cumulative protons in 12C fragmentation at intermediate energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abramov, B.M.; Alekseev, P.N.; Borodin, Y.A.; Bulychjov, S.A.; Dukhovskoi, I.A.; Khanov, A.I.; Krutenkova, A.P.; Kulikov, V.V.; Martemianov, M.A.; Matsuk, M.A.; Turdakina, E.N.

    2014-01-01

    In the FRAGM experiment at heavy ion accelerator complex TWAC-ITEP, the proton yields at an angle 3.5 degrees have been measured in fragmentation of carbon ions at T 0 equals 0.3, 0.6, 0.95 and 2.0 GeV/nucleon on beryllium target. The data are presented as invariant proton yields on cumulative variable x in the range 0.9 < x < 2.4. Proton spectra cover six orders of invariant cross section magnitude. They have been analyzed in the framework of quark cluster fragmentation model. Fragmentation functions of quark- gluon string model are used. The probabilities of the existence of multi-quark clusters in carbon nuclei are estimated to be 8 - 12% for six-quark clusters and 0.2 - 0.6% for nine- quark clusters. (authors)

  8. EXPERIMENTAL VALIDATION OF CUMULATIVE SURFACE LOCATION ERROR FOR TURNING PROCESSES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adam K. Kiss

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study is to create a mechanical model which is suitable to investigate the surface quality in turning processes, based on the Cumulative Surface Location Error (CSLE, which describes the series of the consecutive Surface Location Errors (SLE in roughing operations. In the established model, the investigated CSLE depends on the currently and the previously resulted SLE by means of the variation of the width of cut. The phenomenon of the system can be described as an implicit discrete map. The stationary Surface Location Error and its bifurcations were analysed and flip-type bifurcation was observed for CSLE. Experimental verification of the theoretical results was carried out.

  9. Proposal of a Holistic Model to Support Local-Level Evidence-Based Practice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Said Shahtahmasebi

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available In response to a central drive for evidence-based practice, there have been many research support schemes, setups, and other practices concentrating on facilitating access to external research, such as the Centre for Evidence Based Healthcare Aotearoa, the Cochrane Collaboration, and the York Centre for Reviews and Dissemination. Very little attention has been paid to supporting internal research in terms of local evidence and internal research capabilities. The whole evidence-based practice movement has alienated internal decision makers and, thus, very little progress has been made in the context of evidence informing local policy formation. Health and social policies are made centrally based on dubious claims and often evidence is sought after implementation. For example, on record, most health care practitioners appear to agree with the causal link between depression and mental illness (sometimes qualified with other social factors with suicide; off the record, even some psychiatrists doubt that such a link is applicable to the population as a whole. Therefore, be it through misplaced loyalty or a lack of support for internal researchers/decision makers, local evidence informing local decision making may have been ignored in favour of external evidence. In this paper, we present a practical holistic model to support local evidence-based decision making. This approach is more relevant in light of a new approach to primary health care of “local knowledge” complementing external evidence. One possible outcome would be to network with other regional programmes around the world to share information and identify “best” practices, such as the “Stop Youth Suicide Campaign”(www.stopyouthsuicide.com.

  10. Theory- and Evidence- Based Intervention: Practice-Based Evidence--Integrating Positive Psychology into a Clinical Psychological Assessment and Intervention Model and How to Measure Outcome

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nissen, Poul

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, a model for assessment and intervention is presented. This model explains how to perform theory- and evidence- based as well as practice-based assessment and intervention. The assessment model applies a holistic approach to treatment planning, which includes recognition of the influence of community, school, peers, family and the…

  11. Probabilistic cumulative risk assessment of anti-androgenic pesticides in food

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Müller, Anne Kirstine; Nielsen, Elsa

    2008-01-01

    A cumulative risk assessment of three anti-androgenic pesticides vinclozolin, procymidone and prochloraz in combination has been carried out using an Integrated Probabilistic Risk Assessment (IPRA) model. In the model, variability in both exposure and sensitivity between individuals were combined...

  12. An evidence accumulation model for conflict detection performance in a simulated air traffic control task.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neal, Andrew; Kwantes, Peter J

    2009-04-01

    The aim of this article is to develop a formal model of conflict detection performance. Our model assumes that participants iteratively sample evidence regarding the state of the world and accumulate it over time. A decision is made when the evidence reaches a threshold that changes over time in response to the increasing urgency of the task. Two experiments were conducted to examine the effects of conflict geometry and timing on response proportions and response time. The model is able to predict the observed pattern of response times, including a nonmonotonic relationship between distance at point of closest approach and response time, as well as effects of angle of approach and relative velocity. The results demonstrate that evidence accumulation models provide a good account of performance on a conflict detection task. Evidence accumulation models are a form of dynamic signal detection theory, allowing for the analysis of response times as well as response proportions, and can be used for simulating human performance on dynamic decision tasks.

  13. Spatial prediction of landslide susceptibility in parts of Garhwal Himalaya, India, using the weight of evidence modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guri, Pardeep Kumar; Ray, P K Champati; Patel, Ramesh Chandra

    2015-06-01

    Garhwal Himalaya in northern India has emerged as one of the most prominent hot spots of landslide occurrences in the Himalaya mainly due to geological causes related to mountain building processes, steep topography and frequent occurrences of extreme precipitation events. As this region has many pilgrimage and tourist centres, it is visited by hundreds of thousands of people every year, and in the recent past, there has been rapid development to provide adequate roads and building infrastructure. Additionally, attempts are also made to harness hydropower by constructing tunnels, dams and reservoirs and thus altering vulnerable slopes at many places. As a result, the overall risk due to landslide hazards has increased many folds and, therefore, an attempt was made to assess landslide susceptibility using 'Weights of Evidence (WofE)', a well-known bivariate statistical modelling technique implemented in a much improved way using remote sensing and Geographic Information System. This methodology has dual advantage as it demonstrates how to derive critical parameters related to geology, geomorphology, slope, land use and most importantly temporal landslide distribution in one of the data scarce region of the world. Secondly, it allows to experiment with various combination of parameters to assess their cumulative effect on landslides. In total, 15 parameters related to geology, geomorphology, terrain, hydrology and anthropogenic factors and 2 different landslide inventories (prior to 2007 and 2008-2011) were prepared from high-resolution Indian remote sensing satellite data (Cartosat-1 and Resourcesat-1) and were validated by field investigation. Several combinations of parameters were carried out using WofE modelling, and finally using best combination of eight parameters, 76.5 % of overall landslides were predicted in 24 % of the total area susceptible to landslide occurrences. The study has highlighted that using such methodology landslide susceptibility assessment

  14. Diabetes Mellitus Induces Alzheimer’s Disease Pathology: Histopathological Evidence from Animal Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nobuyuki Kimura

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Alzheimer’s disease (AD is the major causative disease of dementia and is characterized pathologically by the accumulation of senile plaques (SPs and neurofibrillary tangles (NFTs in the brain. Although genetic studies show that β-amyloid protein (Aβ, the major component of SPs, is the key factor underlying AD pathogenesis, it remains unclear why advanced age often leads to AD. Interestingly, several epidemiological and clinical studies show that type II diabetes mellitus (DM patients are more likely to exhibit increased susceptibility to AD. Moreover, growing evidence suggests that there are several connections between the neuropathology that underlies AD and DM, and there is evidence that the experimental induction of DM can cause cognitive dysfunction, even in rodent animal models. This mini-review summarizes histopathological evidence that DM induces AD pathology in animal models and discusses the possibility that aberrant insulin signaling is a key factor in the induction of AD pathology.

  15. Evidence accumulation in decision making: unifying the "take the best" and the "rational" models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Michael D; Cummins, Tarrant D R

    2004-04-01

    An evidence accumulation model of forced-choice decision making is proposed to unify the fast and frugal take the best (TTB) model and the alternative rational (RAT) model with which it is usually contrasted. The basic idea is to treat the TTB model as a sequential-sampling process that terminates as soon as any evidence in favor of a decision is found and the rational approach as a sequential-sampling process that terminates only when all available information has been assessed. The unified TTB and RAT models were tested in an experiment in which participants learned to make correct judgments for a set of real-world stimuli on the basis of feedback, and were then asked to make additional judgments without feedback for cases in which the TTB and the rational models made different predictions. The results show that, in both experiments, there was strong intraparticipant consistency in the use of either the TTB or the rational model but large interparticipant differences in which model was used. The unified model is shown to be able to capture the differences in decision making across participants in an interpretable way and is preferred by the minimum description length model selection criterion.

  16. Cumulative radiation dose of multiple trauma patients during their hospitalization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Zhikang; Sun Jianzhong; Zhao Zudan

    2012-01-01

    Objective: To study the cumulative radiation dose of multiple trauma patients during their hospitalization and to analyze the dose influence factors. Methods: The DLP for CT and DR were retrospectively collected from the patients during June, 2009 and April, 2011 at a university affiliated hospital. The cumulative radiation doses were calculated by summing typical effective doses of the anatomic regions scanned. Results: The cumulative radiation doses of 113 patients were collected. The maximum,minimum and the mean values of cumulative effective doses were 153.3, 16.48 mSv and (52.3 ± 26.6) mSv. Conclusions: Multiple trauma patients have high cumulative radiation exposure. Therefore, the management of cumulative radiation doses should be enhanced. To establish the individualized radiation exposure archives will be helpful for the clinicians and technicians to make decision whether to image again and how to select the imaging parameters. (authors)

  17. Comparison of cumulative false-positive risk of screening mammography in the United States and Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jacobsen, Katja Kemp

    2015-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: In the United States (US), about one-half of women screened with annual mammography have at least one false-positive test after ten screens. The estimate for European women screened ten times biennially is much lower. We evaluate to what extent screening interval, mammogram type......=400,204), between 1991-2012 and 1993-2013, respectively. Model-based cumulative false-positive risks were computed for the entire sample, using two statistical methods (Hubbard Njor) previously used to estimate false-positive risks in the US and Europe. RESULTS: Empirical cumulative risk of at least...... one false-positive test after eight (annual or biennial) screens was 41.9% in BCSC, 16.1% in Copenhagen, and 7.4% in Funen. Variation in screening interval and mammogram type did not explain the differences by country. Using the Hubbard method, the model-based cumulative risks after eight screens...

  18. Modelling distribution of archaeological settlement evidence based on heterogeneous spatial and temporal data

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Demján, P.; Dreslerová, Dagmar

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 69, May (2016), s. 100-109 ISSN 0305-4403 Institutional support: RVO:67985912 Keywords : settlement density * evidence density estimation * predictive modelling * prehistory * large datasets Subject RIV: AC - Archeology, Anthropology, Ethnology Impact factor: 2.602, year: 2016

  19. 7 CFR 42.132 - Determining cumulative sum values.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Determining cumulative sum values. 42.132 Section 42... Determining cumulative sum values. (a) The parameters for the on-line cumulative sum sampling plans for AQL's... 3 1 2.5 3 1 2 1 (b) At the beginning of the basic inspection period, the CuSum value is set equal to...

  20. Improving cumulative effects assessment in Alberta: Regional strategic assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johnson, Dallas; Lalonde, Kim; McEachern, Menzie; Kenney, John; Mendoza, Gustavo; Buffin, Andrew; Rich, Kate

    2011-01-01

    The Government of Alberta, Canada is developing a regulatory framework to better manage cumulative environmental effects from development in the province. A key component of this effort is regional planning, which will lay the primary foundation for cumulative effects management into the future. Alberta Environment has considered the information needs of regional planning and has concluded that Regional Strategic Assessment may offer significant advantages if integrated into the planning process, including the overall improvement of cumulative environmental effects assessment in the province.

  1. Mineral chemistry and petrology of highly magnesian ultramafic cumulates from the Sarve-Abad (Sawlava) ophiolites (Kurdistan, NW Iran): New evidence for boninitic magmatism in intra-oceanic fore-arc setting in the Neo-Tethys between Arabia and Iran

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allahyari, Khalil; Saccani, Emilio; Rahimzadeh, Bahman; Zeda, Ottavia

    2014-01-01

    The Sarve-Abad (Sawlava) ophiolitic complex consists of several tectonically dismembered ophiolitic sequences. They are located along the Main Zagros Thrust Zone, which marks the ophiolitic suture between the Arabian and Sanandaj-Sirjan continental blocks. They represent a portion of the southern Neo-Tethyan oceanic lithosphere, which originally existed between the Arabian (to the south) and Eurasian (to the north) continental margins. The Sarve-Abad ophiolites include cumulitic lherzolites bearing minor dunite and chromitite lenses in places. The main rock-forming minerals in ultramafic cumulates are cumulus olivine and inter-cumulus clinopyroxene and orthopyroxene. Minor (<5%) chromian spinel occurs as both cumulus and inter-cumulus phases.

  2. Using Fuzzy Probability Weights in Cumulative Prospect Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Užga-Rebrovs Oļegs

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available During the past years, a rapid growth has been seen in the descriptive approaches to decision choice. As opposed to normative expected utility theory, these approaches are based on the subjective perception of probabilities by the individuals, which takes place in real situations of risky choice. The modelling of this kind of perceptions is made on the basis of probability weighting functions. In cumulative prospect theory, which is the focus of this paper, decision prospect outcome weights are calculated using the obtained probability weights. If the value functions are constructed in the sets of positive and negative outcomes, then, based on the outcome value evaluations and outcome decision weights, generalised evaluations of prospect value are calculated, which are the basis for choosing an optimal prospect.

  3. Children neglected: Where cumulative risk theory fails.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Hara, Mandy; Legano, Lori; Homel, Peter; Walker-Descartes, Ingrid; Rojas, Mary; Laraque, Danielle

    2015-07-01

    Neglected children, by far the majority of children maltreated, experience an environment most deficient in cognitive stimulation and language exchange. When physical abuse co-occurs with neglect, there is more stimulation through negative parent-child interaction, which may lead to better cognitive outcomes, contrary to Cumulative Risk Theory. The purpose of the current study was to assess whether children only neglected perform worse on cognitive tasks than children neglected and physically abused. Utilizing LONGSCAN archived data, 271 children only neglected and 101 children neglected and physically abused in the first four years of life were compared. The two groups were assessed at age 6 on the WPPSI-R vocabulary and block design subtests, correlates of cognitive intelligence. Regression analyses were performed, controlling for additional predictors of poor cognitive outcome, including socioeconomic variables and caregiver depression. Children only neglected scored significantly worse than children neglected and abused on the WPPSI-R vocabulary subtest (p=0.03). The groups did not differ on the block design subtest (p=0.4). This study shows that for neglected children, additional abuse may not additively accumulate risk when considering intelligence outcomes. Children experiencing only neglect may need to be referred for services that address cognitive development, with emphasis on the linguistic environment, in order to best support the developmental challenges of neglected children. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Standardization of the cumulative absolute velocity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    O'Hara, T.F.; Jacobson, J.P.

    1991-12-01

    EPRI NP-5930, ''A Criterion for Determining Exceedance of the Operating Basis Earthquake,'' was published in July 1988. As defined in that report, the Operating Basis Earthquake (OBE) is exceeded when both a response spectrum parameter and a second damage parameter, referred to as the Cumulative Absolute Velocity (CAV), are exceeded. In the review process of the above report, it was noted that the calculation of CAV could be confounded by time history records of long duration containing low (nondamaging) acceleration. Therefore, it is necessary to standardize the method of calculating CAV to account for record length. This standardized methodology allows consistent comparisons between future CAV calculations and the adjusted CAV threshold value based upon applying the standardized methodology to the data set presented in EPRI NP-5930. The recommended method to standardize the CAV calculation is to window its calculation on a second-by-second basis for a given time history. If the absolute acceleration exceeds 0.025g at any time during each one second interval, the earthquake records used in EPRI NP-5930 have been reanalyzed and the adjusted threshold of damage for CAV was found to be 0.16g-set

  5. Analysis of Memory Codes and Cumulative Rehearsal in Observational Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bandura, Albert; And Others

    1974-01-01

    The present study examined the influence of memory codes varying in meaningfulness and retrievability and cumulative rehearsal on retention of observationally learned responses over increasing temporal intervals. (Editor)

  6. An evidence-based patient-centered method makes the biopsychosocial model scientific.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Robert C; Fortin, Auguste H; Dwamena, Francesca; Frankel, Richard M

    2013-06-01

    To review the scientific status of the biopsychosocial (BPS) model and to propose a way to improve it. Engel's BPS model added patients' psychological and social health concerns to the highly successful biomedical model. He proposed that the BPS model could make medicine more scientific, but its use in education, clinical care, and, especially, research remains minimal. Many aver correctly that the present model cannot be defined in a consistent way for the individual patient, making it untestable and non-scientific. This stems from not obtaining relevant BPS data systematically, where one interviewer obtains the same information another would. Recent research by two of the authors has produced similar patient-centered interviewing methods that are repeatable and elicit just the relevant patient information needed to define the model at each visit. We propose that the field adopt these evidence-based methods as the standard for identifying the BPS model. Identifying a scientific BPS model in each patient with an agreed-upon, evidence-based patient-centered interviewing method can produce a quantum leap ahead in both research and teaching. A scientific BPS model can give us more confidence in being humanistic. In research, we can conduct more rigorous studies to inform better practices. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. County-level cumulative environmental quality associated with cancer incidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jagai, Jyotsna S; Messer, Lynne C; Rappazzo, Kristen M; Gray, Christine L; Grabich, Shannon C; Lobdell, Danelle T

    2017-08-01

    Individual environmental exposures are associated with cancer development; however, environmental exposures occur simultaneously. The Environmental Quality Index (EQI) is a county-level measure of cumulative environmental exposures that occur in 5 domains. The EQI was linked to county-level annual age-adjusted cancer incidence rates from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program state cancer profiles. All-site cancer and the top 3 site-specific cancers for male and female subjects were considered. Incident rate differences (IRDs; annual rate difference per 100,000 persons) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using fixed-slope, random intercept multilevel linear regression models. Associations were assessed with domain-specific indices and analyses were stratified by rural/urban status. Comparing the highest quintile/poorest environmental quality with the lowest quintile/best environmental quality for overall EQI, all-site county-level cancer incidence rate was positively associated with poor environmental quality overall (IRD, 38.55; 95% CI, 29.57-47.53) and for male (IRD, 32.60; 95% CI, 16.28-48.91) and female (IRD, 30.34; 95% CI, 20.47-40.21) subjects, indicating a potential increase in cancer incidence with decreasing environmental quality. Rural/urban stratified models demonstrated positive associations comparing the highest with the lowest quintiles for all strata, except the thinly populated/rural stratum and in the metropolitan/urbanized stratum. Prostate and breast cancer demonstrated the strongest positive associations with poor environmental quality. We observed strong positive associations between the EQI and all-site cancer incidence rates, and associations differed by rural/urban status and environmental domain. Research focusing on single environmental exposures in cancer development may not address the broader environmental context in which cancers develop, and future research should address cumulative environmental

  8. The Zero Suicide Model: Applying Evidence-Based Suicide Prevention Practices to Clinical Care

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Beth S. Brodsky

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Suicide is reaching epidemic proportions, with over 44,000 deaths by suicide in the US, and 800,000 worldwide in 2015. This, despite research and development of evidence-based interventions that target suicidal behavior directly. Suicide prevention efforts need a comprehensive approach, and research must lead to effective implementation across public and mental health systems. A 10-year systematic review of evidence-based findings in suicide prevention summarized the areas necessary for translating research into practice. These include risk assessment, means restriction, evidence-based treatments, population screening combined with chain of care, monitoring, and follow-up. In this article, we review how suicide prevention research informs implementation in clinical settings where those most at risk present for care. Evidence-based and best practices address the fluctuating nature of suicide risk, which requires ongoing risk assessment, direct intervention and monitoring. In the US, the National Action Alliance for Suicide Prevention has put forth the Zero Suicide (ZS Model, a framework to coordinate a multilevel approach to implementing evidence-based practices. We present the Assess, Intervene and Monitor for Suicide Prevention model (AIM-SP as a guide for implementation of ZS evidence-based and best practices in clinical settings. Ten basic steps for clinical management model will be described and illustrated through case vignette. These steps are designed to be easily incorporated into standard clinical practice to enhance suicide risk assessment, brief interventions to increase safety and teach coping strategies and to improve ongoing contact and monitoring of high-risk individuals during transitions in care and high risk periods.

  9. A stochastic multicriteria model for evidence-based decision making in drug benefit-risk analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tervonen, Tommi; van Valkenhoef, Gert; Buskens, Erik; Hillege, Hans L; Postmus, Douwe

    2011-05-30

    Drug benefit-risk (BR) analysis is based on firm clinical evidence regarding various safety and efficacy outcomes. In this paper, we propose a new and more formal approach for constructing a supporting multi-criteria model that fully takes into account the evidence on efficacy and adverse drug reactions. Our approach is based on the stochastic multi-criteria acceptability analysis methodology, which allows us to compute the typical value judgments that support a decision, to quantify decision uncertainty, and to compute a comprehensive BR profile. We construct a multi-criteria model for the therapeutic group of second-generation antidepressants. We assess fluoxetine and venlafaxine together with placebo according to incidence of treatment response and three common adverse drug reactions by using data from a published study. Our model shows that there are clear trade-offs among the treatment alternatives. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  10. Evidence on Features of a DSGE Business Cycle Model from Bayesian Model Averaging

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R.W. Strachan (Rodney); H.K. van Dijk (Herman)

    2012-01-01

    textabstractThe empirical support for features of a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model with two technology shocks is valuated using Bayesian model averaging over vector autoregressions. The model features include equilibria, restrictions on long-run responses, a structural break of unknown

  11. A generalized preferential attachment model for business firms growth rates. I. Empirical evidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pammolli, F.; Fu, D.; Buldyrev, S. V.; Riccaboni, M.; Matia, K.; Yamasaki, K.; Stanley, H. E.

    2007-05-01

    We introduce a model of proportional growth to explain the distribution P(g) of business firm growth rates. The model predicts that P(g) is Laplace in the central part and depicts an asymptotic power-law behavior in the tails with an exponent ζ = 3. Because of data limitations, previous studies in this field have been focusing exclusively on the Laplace shape of the body of the distribution. We test the model at different levels of aggregation in the economy, from products, to firms, to countries, and we find that the predictions are in good agreement with empirical evidence on both growth distributions and size-variance relationships.

  12. An Empirical Investigation of the Black-Scholes Model: Evidence from the Australian Stock Exchange

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zaffar Subedar

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper evaluates the probability of an exchange traded European call option beingexercised on the ASX200 Options Index. Using single-parameter estimates of factors withinthe Black-Scholes model, this paper utilises qualitative regression and a maximum likelihoodapproach. Results indicate that the Black-Scholes model is statistically significant at the 1%level. The results also provide evidence that the use of implied volatility and a jump-diffusionapproach, which increases the tail properties of the underlying lognormal distribution,improves the statistical significance of the Black-Scholes model.

  13. Reconstructing an f(R) model from holographic dark energy: using the observational evidence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saaidi, Kh; Aghamohammadi, A

    2012-01-01

    We investigate the correspondence relation between f(R) gravity and an interacting holographic dark energy (HDE). By obtaining the conditions needed for some observational evidence such as positive acceleration expansion of the Universe, crossing the phantom divide line and validity of the thermodynamics second law in an interacting HDE model and corresponding it with the f(R) model of gravity, we find a viable f(R) model that can explain the present Universe. We also obtain the explicit evolutionary forms of the corresponding scalar field, potential and scale factor of the Universe. (paper)

  14. Models for S&P500 Dynamics: Evidence from Realized Volatility, Daily Returns, and Option Prices

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christoffersen, Peter; Jacobs, Kris; Mimouni, Karim

    in the search for alternative specifications. We then estimate the models using maximum likelihood on S&P500 returns. Finally, we employ nonlinear least squares on a panel of option data. In comparison with earlier studies that explicitly solve the filtering problem, we analyze a more comprehensive option data......Most recent empirical option valuation studies build on the affine square root (SQR) stochastic volatility model. The SQR model is a convenient choice, because it yields closed-form solutions for option prices. However, relatively little is known about the resulting biases. We investigate...... alternatives to the SQR model, by comparing its empirical performance with that of five different but equally parsimonious stochastic volatility models. We provide empirical evidence from three different sources. We first use realized volatilities to assess the properties of the SQR model and to guide us...

  15. Integration of an Evidence Base into a Probabilistic Risk Assessment Model. The Integrated Medical Model Database: An Organized Evidence Base for Assessing In-Flight Crew Health Risk and System Design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saile, Lynn; Lopez, Vilma; Bickham, Grandin; FreiredeCarvalho, Mary; Kerstman, Eric; Byrne, Vicky; Butler, Douglas; Myers, Jerry; Walton, Marlei

    2011-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews the Integrated Medical Model (IMM) database, which is an organized evidence base for assessing in-flight crew health risk. The database is a relational database accessible to many people. The database quantifies the model inputs by a ranking based on the highest value of the data as Level of Evidence (LOE) and the quality of evidence (QOE) score that provides an assessment of the evidence base for each medical condition. The IMM evidence base has already been able to provide invaluable information for designers, and for other uses.

  16. Quantitative cumulative biodistribution of antibodies in mice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yip, Victor; Palma, Enzo; Tesar, Devin B; Mundo, Eduardo E; Bumbaca, Daniela; Torres, Elizabeth K; Reyes, Noe A; Shen, Ben Q; Fielder, Paul J; Prabhu, Saileta; Khawli, Leslie A; Boswell, C Andrew

    2014-01-01

    The neonatal Fc receptor (FcRn) plays an important and well-known role in antibody recycling in endothelial and hematopoietic cells and thus it influences the systemic pharmacokinetics (PK) of immunoglobulin G (IgG). However, considerably less is known about FcRn’s role in the metabolism of IgG within individual tissues after intravenous administration. To elucidate the organ distribution and gain insight into the metabolism of humanized IgG1 antibodies with different binding affinities FcRn, comparative biodistribution studies in normal CD-1 mice were conducted. Here, we generated variants of herpes simplex virus glycoprotein D-specific antibody (humanized anti-gD) with increased and decreased FcRn binding affinity by genetic engineering without affecting antigen specificity. These antibodies were expressed in Chinese hamster ovary cell lines, purified and paired radiolabeled with iodine-125 and indium-111. Equal amounts of I-125-labeled and In-111-labeled antibodies were mixed and intravenously administered into mice at 5 mg/kg. This approach allowed us to measure both the real-time IgG uptake (I-125) and cumulative uptake of IgG and catabolites (In-111) in individual tissues up to 1 week post-injection. The PK and distribution of the wild-type IgG and the variant with enhanced binding for FcRn were largely similar to each other, but vastly different for the rapidly cleared low-FcRn-binding variant. Uptake in individual tissues varied across time, FcRn binding affinity, and radiolabeling method. The liver and spleen emerged as the most concentrated sites of IgG catabolism in the absence of FcRn protection. These data provide an increased understanding of FcRn’s role in antibody PK and catabolism at the tissue level. PMID:24572100

  17. Transmission fidelity is the key to the build-up of cumulative culture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, Hannah M; Laland, Kevin N

    2012-08-05

    Many animals have socially transmitted behavioural traditions, but human culture appears unique in that it is cumulative, i.e. human cultural traits increase in diversity and complexity over time. It is often suggested that high-fidelity cultural transmission is necessary for cumulative culture to occur through refinement, a process known as 'ratcheting', but this hypothesis has never been formally evaluated. We discuss processes of information transmission and loss of traits from a cognitive viewpoint alongside other cultural processes of novel invention (generation of entirely new traits), modification (refinement of existing traits) and combination (bringing together two established traits to generate a new trait). We develop a simple cultural transmission model that does not assume major evolutionary changes (e.g. in brain architecture) and show that small changes in the fidelity with which information is passed between individuals can lead to cumulative culture. In comparison, modification and combination have a lesser influence on, and novel invention appears unimportant to, the ratcheting process. Our findings support the idea that high-fidelity transmission is the key driver of human cumulative culture, and that progress in cumulative culture depends more on trait combination than novel invention or trait modification.

  18. From Theory to Practice: One Agency's Experience with Implementing an Evidence-Based Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murray, Maureen; Culver, Tom; Farmer, Betsy; Jackson, Leslie Ann; Rixon, Brian

    2014-07-01

    As evidence-based practice is becoming integrated into children's mental health services as a means of improving outcomes for children and youth with severe behavioral and emotional problems, therapeutic foster care (TFC) which is a specialized treatment program for such youth, is one of few community-based programs considered to be evidence-based. "Together Facing the Challenge" (TFTC) which was developed as a component of a randomized trial of TFC has been identified as an evidence-based model. We describe the experiences reported by one of the agencies that participated in our study and how they have incorporated TFTC into their on-going practice. They highlight key implementation strategies, challenges faced, and lessons learned as they moved forward towards full implementation of TFTC throughout their agency.

  19. Overturn of magma ocean ilmenite cumulate layer: Implications for lunar magmatic evolution and formation of a lunar core

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hess, P. C.; Parmentier, E. M.

    1993-01-01

    We explore a model for the chemical evolution of the lunar interior that explains the origin and evolution of lunar magmatism and possibly the existence of a lunar core. A magma ocean formed during accretion differentiates into the anorthositic crust and chemically stratified cumulate mantle. The cumulative mantle is gravitationally unstable with dense ilmenite cumulate layers overlying olivine-orthopyroxene cumulates with Fe/Mg that decreases with depth. The dense ilmenite layer sinks to the center of the moon forming the core. The remainder of the gravitationally unstable cumulate pile also overturns. Any remaining primitive lunar mantle rises to its level of neutral buoyancy in the cumulate pile. Perhaps melting of primitive lunar mantle due to this decompression results in early lunar Mg-rich magmatism. Because of its high concentration of incompatible heat producing elements, the ilmenite core heats the overlying orthopyroxene-bearing cumulates. As a conductively thickening thermal boundary layer becomes unstable, the resulting mantle plumes rise, decompress, and partially melt to generate the mare basalts. This model explains both the timing and chemical characteristics of lunar magmatism.

  20. The association between cumulative adversity and mental health: considering dose and primary focus of adversity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keinan, Giora; Shrira, Amit; Shmotkin, Dov

    2012-09-01

    The study addressed the dose-response model in the association of cumulative adversity with mental health. Data of 1,725 participants aged 50+ were drawn from the Israeli component of the Survey of Health, Ageing, and Retirement in Europe. Measures included an inventory of potentially traumatic events, distress (lifetime depression, depressive symptoms), and well-being (quality of life, optimism/hope). The maximal effect of cumulative trauma emerged in the contrast between 0-2 and 3+ events, where the higher number of events related to higher distress but also to higher well-being. While self-oriented adversity revealed no, or negative, association with well-being, other-oriented adversity revealed a positive association. The study suggests an experiential dose of cumulative adversity leading to a co-activation of distress and well-being. The source of this co-activation seems to be other-oriented adversity.

  1. Study on the cumulative impact of reclamation activities on ecosystem health in coastal waters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Chengcheng; Shi, Honghua; Zheng, Wei; Li, Fen; Peng, Shitao; Ding, Dewen

    2016-02-15

    The purpose of this study is to develop feasible tools to investigate the cumulative impact of reclamations on coastal ecosystem health, so that the strategies of ecosystem-based management can be applied in the coastal zone. An indicator system and model were proposed to assess the cumulative impact synthetically. Two coastal water bodies, namely Laizhou Bay (LZB) and Tianjin coastal waters (TCW), in the Bohai Sea of China were studied and compared, each in a different phase of reclamations. Case studies showed that the indicator scores of coastal ecosystem health in LZB and TCW were 0.75 and 0.68 out of 1.0, respectively. It can be concluded that coastal reclamations have a historically cumulative effect on benthic environment, whose degree is larger than that on aquatic environment. The ecosystem-based management of coastal reclamations should emphasize the spatially and industrially intensive layout. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Cumulative effects of forest management activities: how might they occur?

    Science.gov (United States)

    R. M. Rice; R. B. Thomas

    1985-01-01

    Concerns are often voiced about possible environmental damage as the result of the cumulative sedimentation effects of logging and forest road construction. In response to these concerns, National Forests are developing procedures to reduce the possibility that their activities may lead to unacceptable cumulative effects

  3. Cumulative effect in multiple production processes on nuclei

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Golubyatnikova, E.S.; Shmonin, V.L.; Kalinkin, B.N.

    1989-01-01

    It is shown that the cumulative effect is a natural result of the process of hadron multiple production in nuclear reactions. Interpretation is made of the universality of slopes of inclusive spectra and other characteristics of cumulative hadrons. The character of information from such reactions is discussed, which could be helpful in studying the mechanism of multiparticle production. 27 refs.; 4 figs

  4. Sworn testimony of the model evidence: Gaussian Mixture Importance (GAME) sampling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Volpi, Elena; Schoups, Gerrit; Firmani, Giovanni; Vrugt, Jasper A.

    2017-07-01

    What is the "best" model? The answer to this question lies in part in the eyes of the beholder, nevertheless a good model must blend rigorous theory with redeeming qualities such as parsimony and quality of fit. Model selection is used to make inferences, via weighted averaging, from a set of K candidate models, Mk; k=>(1,…,K>), and help identify which model is most supported by the observed data, Y>˜=>(y˜1,…,y˜n>). Here, we introduce a new and robust estimator of the model evidence, p>(Y>˜|Mk>), which acts as normalizing constant in the denominator of Bayes' theorem and provides a single quantitative measure of relative support for each hypothesis that integrates model accuracy, uncertainty, and complexity. However, p>(Y>˜|Mk>) is analytically intractable for most practical modeling problems. Our method, coined GAussian Mixture importancE (GAME) sampling, uses bridge sampling of a mixture distribution fitted to samples of the posterior model parameter distribution derived from MCMC simulation. We benchmark the accuracy and reliability of GAME sampling by application to a diverse set of multivariate target distributions (up to 100 dimensions) with known values of p>(Y>˜|Mk>) and to hypothesis testing using numerical modeling of the rainfall-runoff transformation of the Leaf River watershed in Mississippi, USA. These case studies demonstrate that GAME sampling provides robust and unbiased estimates of the evidence at a relatively small computational cost outperforming commonly used estimators. The GAME sampler is implemented in the MATLAB package of DREAM and simplifies considerably scientific inquiry through hypothesis testing and model selection.

  5. Forensic Evidence Identification and Modeling for Attacks against a Simulated Online Business Information System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manghui Tu

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Forensic readiness can support future forensics investigation or auditing on external/internal attacks, internal sabotage and espionage, and business frauds. To establish forensics readiness, it is essential for an organization to identify what evidences are relevant and where they can be found, to determine whether they are logged in a forensic sound way and whether all the needed evidences are available to reconstruct the events successfully.  Our goal of this research is to ensure evidence availability. First, both external and internal attacks are molded as augmented attack trees/graphs based on the system vulnerabilities. Second, modeled attacks are conducted against a honeynet simulating an online business information system, and each honeypot's hard drive is forensic sound imaged for each individual attack. Third, an evidence tree/graph will be built after forensics examination on the disk images for each attack. The evidence trees/graphs are expected to be used for automatic crime scene reconstruction and automatic attack/fraud detection in the future.

  6. Decision making generalized by a cumulative probability weighting function

    Science.gov (United States)

    dos Santos, Lindomar Soares; Destefano, Natália; Martinez, Alexandre Souto

    2018-01-01

    Typical examples of intertemporal decision making involve situations in which individuals must choose between a smaller reward, but more immediate, and a larger one, delivered later. Analogously, probabilistic decision making involves choices between options whose consequences differ in relation to their probability of receiving. In Economics, the expected utility theory (EUT) and the discounted utility theory (DUT) are traditionally accepted normative models for describing, respectively, probabilistic and intertemporal decision making. A large number of experiments confirmed that the linearity assumed by the EUT does not explain some observed behaviors, as nonlinear preference, risk-seeking and loss aversion. That observation led to the development of new theoretical models, called non-expected utility theories (NEUT), which include a nonlinear transformation of the probability scale. An essential feature of the so-called preference function of these theories is that the probabilities are transformed by decision weights by means of a (cumulative) probability weighting function, w(p) . We obtain in this article a generalized function for the probabilistic discount process. This function has as particular cases mathematical forms already consecrated in the literature, including discount models that consider effects of psychophysical perception. We also propose a new generalized function for the functional form of w. The limiting cases of this function encompass some parametric forms already proposed in the literature. Far beyond a mere generalization, our function allows the interpretation of probabilistic decision making theories based on the assumption that individuals behave similarly in the face of probabilities and delays and is supported by phenomenological models.

  7. Language Delay in Severely Neglected Children: A Cumulative or Specific Effect of Risk Factors?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sylvestre, Audette; Merette, Chantal

    2010-01-01

    Objectives: This research sought to determine if the language delay (LD) of severely neglected children under 3 years old was better explained by a cumulative risk model or by the specificity of risk factors. The objective was also to identify the risk factors with the strongest impact on LD among various biological, psychological, and…

  8. Evaluating long-term cumulative hydrologic effects of forest management: a conceptual approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert R. Ziemer

    1992-01-01

    It is impractical to address experimentally many aspects of cumulative hydrologic effects, since to do so would require studying large watersheds for a century or more. Monte Carlo simulations were conducted using three hypothetical 10,000-ha fifth-order forested watersheds. Most of the physical processes expressed by the model are transferable from temperate to...

  9. Probabilistic cumulative risk assessment of anti-androgenic pesticides in food.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Müller, A.K.; Bosgra, S.; Boon, P.E.; van der Voet, H.; Nielsen, E.; Ladefoged, O.

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, we present a cumulative risk assessment of three anti-androgenic pesticides (vinclozolin, procymidone and prochloraz) using the relative potency factor (RPF) approach and an integrated probabilistic risk assessment (IPRA) model. RPFs for each substance were estimated for three

  10. Probabilistic cumulative risk assessment of anti-androgenic pesticides in food

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Muller, A.K.; Bosgra, S.; Boon, P.E.; Voet, van der H.; Nielsen, E.; Ladefoged, O.

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, we present a cumulative risk assessment of three anti-androgenic pesticides (vinclozolin, procymidone and prochloraz) using the relative potency factor (RPF) approach and an integrated probabilistic risk assessment (IPRA) model. RPFs for each substance were estimated for three

  11. Optimization of the cumulative risk assessment of pesticides and biocides using computational techniques: Pilot project

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jonsdottir, Svava Osk; Reffstrup, Trine Klein; Petersen, Annette

    This pilot project is intended as the first step in developing a computational strategy to assist in refining methods for higher tier cumulative and aggregate risk assessment of exposure to mixture of pesticides and biocides. For this purpose, physiologically based toxicokinetic (PBTK) models were...

  12. High cumulants of conserved charges and their statistical uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li-Zhu, Chen; Ye-Yin, Zhao; Xue, Pan; Zhi-Ming, Li; Yuan-Fang, Wu

    2017-10-01

    We study the influence of measured high cumulants of conserved charges on their associated statistical uncertainties in relativistic heavy-ion collisions. With a given number of events, the measured cumulants randomly fluctuate with an approximately normal distribution, while the estimated statistical uncertainties are found to be correlated with corresponding values of the obtained cumulants. Generally, with a given number of events, the larger the cumulants we measure, the larger the statistical uncertainties that are estimated. The error-weighted averaged cumulants are dependent on statistics. Despite this effect, however, it is found that the three sigma rule of thumb is still applicable when the statistics are above one million. Supported by NSFC (11405088, 11521064, 11647093), Major State Basic Research Development Program of China (2014CB845402) and Ministry of Science and Technology (MoST) (2016YFE0104800)

  13. Evidence of a fractional quantum Hall nematic phase in a microscopic model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Regnault, N.; Maciejko, J.; Kivelson, S. A.; Sondhi, S. L.

    2017-07-01

    At small momenta, the Girvin-MacDonald-Platzman (GMP) mode in the fractional quantum Hall (FQH) effect can be identified with gapped nematic fluctuations in the isotropic FQH liquid. This correspondence would be exact as the GMP mode softens upon approach to the putative point of a quantum phase transition to a FQH nematic. Motivated by these considerations as well as by suggestive evidence of an FQH nematic in tilted field experiments, we have sought evidence of such a nematic FQHE in a microscopic model of interacting electrons in the lowest Landau level at filling factor 1/3. Using a family of anisotropic Laughlin states as trial wave functions, we find a continuous quantum phase transition between the isotropic Laughlin liquid and the FQH nematic. Results of numerical exact diagonalization also suggest that rotational symmetry is spontaneously broken, and that the phase diagram of the model contains both a nematic and a stripe phase.

  14. The cumulative effect of air pollutants on the acute exacerbation of COPD in Shanghai, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Xian Wen; Chen, Pei Li; Ren, Lei; Lin, Ying Ni; Zhou, Jian Ping; Ni, Lei; Li, Qing Yun

    2018-05-01

    Epidemiologic studies have shown the effect of air pollutants on acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD). However, little is known regarding the dose-response relationship. This study aimed to investigate the cumulative effect of air pollutants on AECOPD. We collected 101 patients with AECOPD from November 2010 through August 2011 in Shanghai. Multiple logistic regression was used to estimate associations between air pollutants and AECOPD. Poisson regression was then applied to determine the cumulative effect of air pollutants including particulate matter 10 (PM10), PM2.5, nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ), sulphur dioxide (SO 2 ) and ozone (O 3 ) on AECOPD, of which the seasonal variation was further explored. The monthly episodes of AECOPD were associated with the concentrations of PM2.5 (r=0.884, peffect in cold season, whereas 7days in warm season. The RR for AECOPD for per 10μg/m 3 increment in NO 2 was 1.07, with a 5-day cumulative effect without seasonal variation. High consecutive levels of PM2.5 and NO 2 increase the risk of developing AECOPD. Cumulative effect of PM2.5 and NO 2 appears before the exacerbation onset. These gradations were more evident in the PM2.5 during different seasons. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Cumulative Causation of Rural Migration and Initial Peri-Urbanization in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hao, Lingxin

    2012-01-01

    This paper posits that rural migration feeds the high demand for cheap labor in peri-urbanization, which is driven by globalization, flows of foreign capital, and entrepreneurial local governments. While the gravity model and push/pull perspective ignore the dynamics of migratory course, we use the cumulative causation of migration theory to conceptualize social expectations for outmigration and social resources from migrant networks in destinations. Four major findings are drawn from this demographic analysis based on micro data from China's 2000 Census. First, the expectation of outmigration significantly increases outmigration, and this effect is independent of push factors. Second, foreign direct investment (FDI) contributes to attracting rural labor migrants from other provinces to peri-urban areas as it does to cities. Third, social resources from migrant networks play an important role in attracting rural labor migrants to both city and noncity destinations. Fourth, the importance of wage differentials declines in gravitating rural labor migrants to peri-urban areas. These findings provide tentative evidence that rural labor migration is indispensable during initial peri-urbanization. Infused with flows of FDI and entrepreneurial local governments, rural migration has created a favorable initial condition for peri-urbanization.

  16. Evidence-based quantification of uncertainties induced via simulation-based modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Riley, Matthew E.

    2015-01-01

    The quantification of uncertainties in simulation-based modeling traditionally focuses upon quantifying uncertainties in the parameters input into the model, referred to as parametric uncertainties. Often neglected in such an approach are the uncertainties induced by the modeling process itself. This deficiency is often due to a lack of information regarding the problem or the models considered, which could theoretically be reduced through the introduction of additional data. Because of the nature of this epistemic uncertainty, traditional probabilistic frameworks utilized for the quantification of uncertainties are not necessarily applicable to quantify the uncertainties induced in the modeling process itself. This work develops and utilizes a methodology – incorporating aspects of Dempster–Shafer Theory and Bayesian model averaging – to quantify uncertainties of all forms for simulation-based modeling problems. The approach expands upon classical parametric uncertainty approaches, allowing for the quantification of modeling-induced uncertainties as well, ultimately providing bounds on classical probability without the loss of epistemic generality. The approach is demonstrated on two different simulation-based modeling problems: the computation of the natural frequency of a simple two degree of freedom non-linear spring mass system and the calculation of the flutter velocity coefficient for the AGARD 445.6 wing given a subset of commercially available modeling choices. - Highlights: • Modeling-induced uncertainties are often mishandled or ignored in the literature. • Modeling-induced uncertainties are epistemic in nature. • Probabilistic representations of modeling-induced uncertainties are restrictive. • Evidence theory and Bayesian model averaging are integrated. • Developed approach is applicable for simulation-based modeling problems

  17. Breaking Bad News: An Evidence-Based Review of Communication Models for Oncology Nurses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bumb, Meridith; Keefe, Joanna; Miller, Lindsay; Overcash, Janine

    2017-10-01

    A diagnosis of cancer is a stressful, difficult, and life-altering event. Breaking bad news is distressing to patients and families and is often uncomfortable for the nurse delivering it. Evidence-based communication models have been developed and adapted for use in clinical practice to assist nurses with breaking bad news.

. The purpose of this article is to provide an overview on breaking bad news and to review the utility of the SPIKES and PEWTER evidence-based communication models for oncology nurses.
. Perceptions of breaking bad news from the nurse and patient perspectives, as well as barriers and consequences to effective communication, will be presented. Clinical examples of possible situations of breaking bad news will demonstrate how to use the SPIKES and PEWTER models of communication when disclosing bad news to patients and their families.
. By using the evidence-based communication strategies depicted in this article, oncology nurses can support the delivery of bad news and maintain communication with their patients and their patients' families in an effective and productive manner.

  18. An Analysis of Cumulative Risks Indicated by Biomonitoring Data of Six Phthalates Using the Maximum Cumulative Ratio

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Maximum Cumulative Ratio (MCR) quantifies the degree to which a single component of a chemical mixture drives the cumulative risk of a receptor.1 This study used the MCR, the Hazard Index (HI) and Hazard Quotient (HQ) to evaluate co-exposures to six phthalates using biomonito...

  19. An analysis of cumulative risks based on biomonitoring data for six phthalates using the Maximum Cumulative Ratio

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Maximum Cumulative Ratio (MCR) quantifies the degree to which a single chemical drives the cumulative risk of an individual exposed to multiple chemicals. Phthalates are a class of chemicals with ubiquitous exposures in the general population that have the potential to cause ...

  20. High selection pressure promotes increase in cumulative adaptive culture.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carolin Vegvari

    Full Text Available The evolution of cumulative adaptive culture has received widespread interest in recent years, especially the factors promoting its occurrence. Current evolutionary models suggest that an increase in population size may lead to an increase in cultural complexity via a higher rate of cultural transmission and innovation. However, relatively little attention has been paid to the role of natural selection in the evolution of cultural complexity. Here we use an agent-based simulation model to demonstrate that high selection pressure in the form of resource pressure promotes the accumulation of adaptive culture in spite of small population sizes and high innovation costs. We argue that the interaction of demography and selection is important, and that neither can be considered in isolation. We predict that an increase in cultural complexity is most likely to occur under conditions of population pressure relative to resource availability. Our model may help to explain why culture change can occur without major environmental change. We suggest that understanding the interaction between shifting selective pressures and demography is essential for explaining the evolution of cultural complexity.

  1. Innovation and social transmission in experimental micro-societies: exploring the scope of cumulative culture in young children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGuigan, Nicola; Burdett, Emily; Burgess, Vanessa; Dean, Lewis; Lucas, Amanda; Vale, Gillian; Whiten, Andrew

    2017-12-05

    The experimental study of cumulative culture and the innovations essential to it is a young science, with child studies so rare that the scope of cumulative cultural capacities in childhood remains largely unknown. Here we report a new experimental approach to the inherent complexity of these phenomena. Groups of 3-4-year-old children were presented with an elaborate array of challenges affording the potential cumulative development of a variety of techniques to gain increasingly attractive rewards. In contrast to a prior study, we found evidence for elementary forms of cumulative cultural progress, with inventions of solutions at lower levels spreading to become shared innovations, and some children then building on these to create more advanced but more rewarding innovations. This contrasted with markedly more constrained progress when children worked only by themselves, or if groups faced only the highest-level challenges from the start. Further experiments that introduced higher-level inventions via the inclusion of older children, or that created ecological change, with the easiest habitual solutions no longer possible, encouraged higher levels of cumulative innovation. Our results show children are not merely 'cultural sponges', but when acting in groups, display the beginnings of cycles of innovation and observational learning that sustain cumulative progress in problem solving.This article is part of the themed issue 'Process and pattern in innovations from cells to societies'. © 2017 The Author(s).

  2. Modeling a historical mountain pine beetle outbreak using Landsat MSS and multiple lines of evidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Assal, Timothy J.; Sibold, Jason; Reich, Robin M.

    2014-01-01

    Mountain pine beetles are significant forest disturbance agents, capable of inducing widespread mortality in coniferous forests in western North America. Various remote sensing approaches have assessed the impacts of beetle outbreaks over the last two decades. However, few studies have addressed the impacts of historical mountain pine beetle outbreaks, including the 1970s event that impacted Glacier National Park. The lack of spatially explicit data on this disturbance represents both a major data gap and a critical research challenge in that wildfire has removed some of the evidence from the landscape. We utilized multiple lines of evidence to model forest canopy mortality as a proxy for outbreak severity. We incorporate historical aerial and landscape photos, aerial detection survey data, a nine-year collection of satellite imagery and abiotic data. This study presents a remote sensing based framework to (1) relate measurements of canopy mortality from fine-scale aerial photography to coarse-scale multispectral imagery and (2) classify the severity of mountain pine beetle affected areas using a temporal sequence of Landsat data and other landscape variables. We sampled canopy mortality in 261 plots from aerial photos and found that insect effects on mortality were evident in changes to the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) over time. We tested multiple spectral indices and found that a combination of NDVI and the green band resulted in the strongest model. We report a two-step process where we utilize a generalized least squares model to account for the large-scale variability in the data and a binary regression tree to describe the small-scale variability. The final model had a root mean square error estimate of 9.8% canopy mortality, a mean absolute error of 7.6% and an R2 of 0.82. The results demonstrate that a model of percent canopy mortality as a continuous variable can be developed to identify a gradient of mountain pine beetle severity on the

  3. Cumulative stress and autonomic dysregulation in a community sample.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lampert, Rachel; Tuit, Keri; Hong, Kwang-Ik; Donovan, Theresa; Lee, Forrester; Sinha, Rajita

    2016-05-01

    Whether cumulative stress, including both chronic stress and adverse life events, is associated with decreased heart rate variability (HRV), a non-invasive measure of autonomic status which predicts poor cardiovascular outcomes, is unknown. Healthy community dwelling volunteers (N = 157, mean age 29 years) participated in the Cumulative Stress/Adversity Interview (CAI), a 140-item event interview measuring cumulative adversity including major life events, life trauma, recent life events and chronic stressors, and underwent 24-h ambulatory ECG monitoring. HRV was analyzed in the frequency domain and standard deviation of NN intervals (SDNN) calculated. Initial simple regression analyses revealed that total cumulative stress score, chronic stressors and cumulative adverse life events (CALE) were all inversely associated with ultra low-frequency (ULF), very low-frequency (VLF) and low-frequency (LF) power and SDNN (all p accounting for additional appreciable variance. For VLF and LF, both total cumulative stress and chronic stress significantly contributed to the variance alone but were not longer significant after adjusting for race and health behaviors. In summary, total cumulative stress, and its components of adverse life events and chronic stress were associated with decreased cardiac autonomic function as measured by HRV. Findings suggest one potential mechanism by which stress may exert adverse effects on mortality in healthy individuals. Primary preventive strategies including stress management may prove beneficial.

  4. The EPA's human exposure research program for assessing cumulative risk in communities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zartarian, Valerie G; Schultz, Bradley D

    2010-06-01

    Communities are faced with challenges in identifying and prioritizing environmental issues, taking actions to reduce their exposures, and determining their effectiveness for reducing human health risks. Additional challenges include determining what scientific tools are available and most relevant, and understanding how to use those tools; given these barriers, community groups tend to rely more on risk perception than science. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Office of Research and Development, National Exposure Research Laboratory (NERL) and collaborators are developing and applying tools (models, data, methods) for enhancing cumulative risk assessments. The NERL's "Cumulative Communities Research Program" focuses on key science questions: (1) How to systematically identify and prioritize key chemical stressors within a given community?; (2) How to develop estimates of exposure to multiple stressors for individuals in epidemiologic studies?; and (3) What tools can be used to assess community-level distributions of exposures for the development and evaluation of the effectiveness of risk reduction strategies? This paper provides community partners and scientific researchers with an understanding of the NERL research program and other efforts to address cumulative community risks; and key research needs and opportunities. Some initial findings include the following: (1) Many useful tools exist for components of risk assessment, but need to be developed collaboratively with end users and made more comprehensive and user-friendly for practical application; (2) Tools for quantifying cumulative risks and impact of community risk reduction activities are also needed; (3) More data are needed to assess community- and individual-level exposures, and to link exposure-related information with health effects; and (4) Additional research is needed to incorporate risk-modifying factors ("non-chemical stressors") into cumulative risk assessments. The products of this

  5. Is working memory stored along a logarithmic timeline? Converging evidence from neuroscience, behavior and models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Inder; Tiganj, Zoran; Howard, Marc W

    2018-04-23

    A growing body of evidence suggests that short-term memory does not only store the identity of recently experienced stimuli, but also information about when they were presented. This representation of 'what' happened 'when' constitutes a neural timeline of recent past. Behavioral results suggest that people can sequentially access memories for the recent past, as if they were stored along a timeline to which attention is sequentially directed. In the short-term judgment of recency (JOR) task, the time to choose between two probe items depends on the recency of the more recent probe but not on the recency of the more remote probe. This pattern of results suggests a backward self-terminating search model. We review recent neural evidence from the macaque lateral prefrontal cortex (lPFC) (Tiganj, Cromer, Roy, Miller, & Howard, in press) and behavioral evidence from human JOR task (Singh & Howard, 2017) bearing on this question. Notably, both lines of evidence suggest that the timeline is logarithmically compressed as predicted by Weber-Fechner scaling. Taken together, these findings provide an integrative perspective on temporal organization and neural underpinnings of short-term memory. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Cumulative effects of restoration efforts on ecological characteristics of an open water area within the Upper Mississippi River

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gray, B.R.; Shi, W.; Houser, J.N.; Rogala, J.T.; Guan, Z.; Cochran-Biederman, J. L.

    2011-01-01

    Ecological restoration efforts in large rivers generally aim to ameliorate ecological effects associated with large-scale modification of those rivers. This study examined whether the effects of restoration efforts-specifically those of island construction-within a largely open water restoration area of the Upper Mississippi River (UMR) might be seen at the spatial scale of that 3476ha area. The cumulative effects of island construction, when observed over multiple years, were postulated to have made the restoration area increasingly similar to a positive reference area (a proximate area comprising contiguous backwater areas) and increasingly different from two negative reference areas. The negative reference areas represented the Mississippi River main channel in an area proximate to the restoration area and an open water area in a related Mississippi River reach that has seen relatively little restoration effort. Inferences on the effects of restoration were made by comparing constrained and unconstrained models of summer chlorophyll a (CHL), summer inorganic suspended solids (ISS) and counts of benthic mayfly larvae. Constrained models forced trends in means or in both means and sampling variances to become, over time, increasingly similar to those in the positive reference area and increasingly dissimilar to those in the negative reference areas. Trends were estimated over 12- (mayflies) or 14-year sampling periods, and were evaluated using model information criteria. Based on these methods, restoration effects were observed for CHL and mayflies while evidence in favour of restoration effects on ISS was equivocal. These findings suggest that the cumulative effects of island building at relatively large spatial scales within large rivers may be estimated using data from large-scale surveillance monitoring programs. Published in 2010 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  7. Cumulative trauma and partner conflict predict post-traumatic stress disorder in postpartum African-American women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hauff, Nancy J; Fry-McComish, Judith; Chiodo, Lisa M

    2017-08-01

    To describe relationships between cumulative trauma, partner conflict and post-traumatic stress in African-American postpartum women. Cumulative trauma exposure estimates for women in the USA range from 51-69%. During pregnancy, most trauma research has focused on physical injury to the mother. Post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) is associated with trauma and more prevalent in African-American women than women of other groups. Knowledge about both the rate and impact of cumulative trauma on pregnancy may contribute to our understanding of women seeking prenatal care, and disparities in infant morbidity and mortality. This retrospective, correlational, cross-sectional study took place on postpartum units of two Detroit hospitals. Participants were 150 African-American women aged between 18-45 who had given birth. Mothers completed the Cumulative Trauma Scale, Conflict Tactics Scale, Clinician Administered Post-traumatic Stress Scale, Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale and a Demographic Data form. Descriptive statistics, correlations and multiple regressions were used for data analysis. All participants reported at least one traumatic event in their lifetime. Cumulative trauma and partner conflict predicted PTSD, with the trauma of a life-threatening event for a loved one reported by 60% of the sample. Nearly, one-fourth of the women screened were at risk for PTSD. Increased cumulative trauma, increased partner conflict and lower level of education were related to higher rates of PTSD symptoms. Both cumulative trauma and partner conflict in the past year predict PTSD. Reasoning was used most often for partner conflict resolution. The results of this study offer additional knowledge regarding relationships between cumulative trauma, partner conflict and PTSD in African-American women. Healthcare providers need to be sensitive to patient life-threatening events, personal failures, abuse and other types of trauma. Current evidence supports the need to assess for

  8. Micro worlds versus boundary objects in group model building; evidence from the literature on problem definition and model conceptulization

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zagonel, Aldo A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). Systems Engineering & Analysis; Andersen, David F. [University in Albany, NY (United States). The Rockefeller College of Public Affairs & Policy

    2007-03-01

    Based upon participant observation in group model building and content analysis of the system dynamics literature, we postulate that modeling efforts have a dual nature. On one hand, the modeling process aims to create a useful representation of a real-world system. This must be done, however, while aligning the clients’ mental models around a shared view of the system. There is significant overlap and confusion between these two goals and how they play out on a practical level. This research clarifies these distinctions by establishing an ideal-type dichotomy. To highlight the differences, we created two straw men: “micro world” characterizes a model that represents reality and “boundary object” represents a socially negotiated model. Using this framework, the literature was examined, revealing evidence for several competing views on problem definition and model conceptualization. The results are summarized in the text of this article, substantiated with strikingly polarized citations, often from the same authors. We also introduce hypotheses for the duality across the remaining phases of the modeling process. Finally, understanding and appreciation of the differences between these ideal types can promote constructive debate on their balance in system dynamics theory and practice.

  9. Experimental evidence and modelling of drought induced alternative stable soil moisture states

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, David; Jones, Scott; Lebron, Inma; Reinsch, Sabine; Dominguez, Maria; Smith, Andrew; Marshal, Miles; Emmett, Bridget

    2017-04-01

    The theory of alternative stable states in ecosystems is well established in ecology; however, evidence from manipulation experiments supporting the theory is limited. Developing the evidence base is important because it has profound implications for ecosystem management. Here we show evidence of the existence of alternative stable soil moisture states induced by drought in an upland wet heath. We used a long-term (15 yrs) climate change manipulation experiment with moderate sustained drought, which reduced the ability of the soil to retain soil moisture by degrading the soil structure, reducing moisture retention. Moreover, natural intense droughts superimposed themselves on the experiment, causing an unexpected additional alternative soil moisture state to develop, both for the drought manipulation and control plots; this impaired the soil from rewetting in winter. Our results show the coexistence of three stable states. Using modelling with the Hydrus 1D software package we are able to show the circumstances under which shifts in soil moisture states are likely to occur. Given the new understanding it presents a challenge of how to incorporate feedbacks, particularly related to soil structure, into soil flow and transport models?

  10. A diffusion decision model analysis of evidence variability in the lexical decision task.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tillman, Gabriel; Osth, Adam F; van Ravenzwaaij, Don; Heathcote, Andrew

    2017-12-01

    The lexical-decision task is among the most commonly used paradigms in psycholinguistics. In both the signal-detection theory and Diffusion Decision Model (DDM; Ratcliff, Gomez, & McKoon, Psychological Review, 111, 159-182, 2004) frameworks, lexical-decisions are based on a continuous source of word-likeness evidence for both words and non-words. The Retrieving Effectively from Memory model of Lexical-Decision (REM-LD; Wagenmakers et al., Cognitive Psychology, 48(3), 332-367, 2004) provides a comprehensive explanation of lexical-decision data and makes the prediction that word-likeness evidence is more variable for words than non-words and that higher frequency words are more variable than lower frequency words. To test these predictions, we analyzed five lexical-decision data sets with the DDM. For all data sets, drift-rate variability changed across word frequency and non-word conditions. For the most part, REM-LD's predictions about the ordering of evidence variability across stimuli in the lexical-decision task were confirmed.

  11. Model validation and the role of the proposed Rock Characterisation Facility at Sellafield. Proof of evidence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wallace, H.

    1996-01-01

    Proof of Evidence is given by an expert witness on behalf of Greenpeace Ltd as part of their submission to a Planning Inquiry in 1995 hearing the application of UK Nirex Ltd for permission to construct an underground Rock Characterisation Facility (RCF) at a site near Sellafield. The RCF is part of an investigation by Nirex into a suitable site for the disposal of radioactive waste. An examination of the groundwater flow models used by Nirex and the procedure for their validation have led to the following conclusions: no evidence has been presented by Nirex to show that the construction of the RCF will improve the confidence they claim to have in the site; the prospects are slim for validating the models of present groundwater flow so that they satisfy the criteria to meet the risk target; it is extremely unlikely that results from the RCF will increase confidence in a safety assessment of this site; all the evidence available to date suggests that the risk assessment is not, and will not become, robust to variations in flux through the repository. (1 figure; 8 references). (UK)

  12. Barriers and facilitators to replicating an evidence-based palliative care model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, E Maxwell; Jamison, Paula; Brumley, Richard; Enguídanos, Susan

    2006-01-01

    Recognition of the difficulties involved in replicating evidence- based interventions is well documented in the literature within the medical field. Promising research findings are often not translated into practice, and if they are, there is a significant time gap between study conclusion and practice adoption. The purpose of this article is to describe the barriers and facilitators encountered by two managed care organizations while replicating an evidence-based end of life in-home palliative care model. Using Diffusion of Innovation Theory as a theoretical framework, results from focus groups and interviews with the project's clinical, administrative and research teams are presented and recommendations made for improving translational efforts. The process of replicating the end of life in-home palliative care model clearly illustrated the key elements required for successfully diffusing innovation. These key elements include marketing and communication, leadership, organizational support and training and mentorship. This qualitative process study provides clear, real world perspectives of the myriad of challenges encountered in replicating an evidence-based project.

  13. Estimating a population cumulative incidence under calendar time trends

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Stefan N; Overgaard, Morten; Andersen, Per K

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The risk of a disease or psychiatric disorder is frequently measured by the age-specific cumulative incidence. Cumulative incidence estimates are often derived in cohort studies with individuals recruited over calendar time and with the end of follow-up governed by a specific date....... It is common practice to apply the Kaplan-Meier or Aalen-Johansen estimator to the total sample and report either the estimated cumulative incidence curve or just a single point on the curve as a description of the disease risk. METHODS: We argue that, whenever the disease or disorder of interest is influenced...

  14. Neimark-Sacker bifurcations and evidence of chaos in a discrete dynamical model of walkers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rahman, Aminur; Blackmore, Denis

    2016-01-01

    Bouncing droplets on a vibrating fluid bath can exhibit wave-particle behavior, such as being propelled by interacting with its own wave field. These droplets seem to walk across the bath, and thus are dubbed walkers. Experiments have shown that walkers can exhibit exotic dynamical behavior indicative of chaos. While the integro-differential models developed for these systems agree well with the experiments, they are difficult to analyze mathematically. In recent years, simpler discrete dynamical models have been derived and studied numerically. The numerical simulations of these models show evidence of exotic dynamics such as period doubling bifurcations, Neimark–Sacker (N–S) bifurcations, and even chaos. For example, in [1], based on simulations Gilet conjectured the existence of a supercritical N-S bifurcation as the damping factor in his one- dimensional path model. We prove Gilet’s conjecture and more; in fact, both supercritical and subcritical (N-S) bifurcations are produced by separately varying the damping factor and wave-particle coupling for all eigenmode shapes. Then we compare our theoretical results with some previous and new numerical simulations, and find complete qualitative agreement. Furthermore, evidence of chaos is shown by numerically studying a global bifurcation.

  15. Calibration of complex models through Bayesian evidence synthesis: a demonstration and tutorial

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson, Christopher; Jit, Mark; Sharples, Linda; DeAngelis, Daniela

    2016-01-01

    Summary Decision-analytic models must often be informed using data which are only indirectly related to the main model parameters. The authors outline how to implement a Bayesian synthesis of diverse sources of evidence to calibrate the parameters of a complex model. A graphical model is built to represent how observed data are generated from statistical models with unknown parameters, and how those parameters are related to quantities of interest for decision-making. This forms the basis of an algorithm to estimate a posterior probability distribution, which represents the updated state of evidence for all unknowns given all data and prior beliefs. This process calibrates the quantities of interest against data, and at the same time, propagates all parameter uncertainties to the results used for decision-making. To illustrate these methods, the authors demonstrate how a previously-developed Markov model for the progression of human papillomavirus (HPV16) infection was rebuilt in a Bayesian framework. Transition probabilities between states of disease severity are inferred indirectly from cross-sectional observations of prevalence of HPV16 and HPV16-related disease by age, cervical cancer incidence, and other published information. Previously, a discrete collection of plausible scenarios was identified, but with no further indication of which of these are more plausible. Instead, the authors derive a Bayesian posterior distribution, in which scenarios are implicitly weighted according to how well they are supported by the data. In particular, we emphasise the appropriate choice of prior distributions and checking and comparison of fitted models. PMID:23886677

  16. Analysis of model implied volatility for jump diffusion models: Empirical evidence from the Nordpool market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nomikos, Nikos K.; Soldatos, Orestes A.

    2010-01-01

    In this paper we examine the importance of mean reversion and spikes in the stochastic behaviour of the underlying asset when pricing options on power. We propose a model that is flexible in its formulation and captures the stylized features of power prices in a parsimonious way. The main feature of the model is that it incorporates two different speeds of mean reversion to capture the differences in price behaviour between normal and spiky periods. We derive semi-closed form solutions for European option prices using transform analysis and then examine the properties of the implied volatilities that the model generates. We find that the presence of jumps generates prominent volatility skews which depend on the sign of the mean jump size. We also show that mean reversion reduces the volatility smile as time to maturity increases. In addition, mean reversion induces volatility skews particularly for ITM options, even in the absence of jumps. Finally, jump size volatility and jump intensity mainly affect the kurtosis and thus the curvature of the smile with the former having a more important role in making the volatility smile more pronounced and thus increasing the kurtosis of the underlying price distribution.

  17. Cumulative childhood risk and adult functioning in abused and neglected children grown up.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horan, Jacqueline M; Widom, Cathy Spatz

    2015-08-01

    This paper examines the relationship between childhood exposure to cumulative risk and three indicators of psychosocial adjustment in adulthood (educational attainment, mental health, and criminal behavior) and tests three different models (linear, quadratic, and interaction). Data were collected over several time points from individuals who were part of a prospective cohort design study that matched children with documented cases of abuse and/or neglect with children without such histories and followed them into adulthood. Hierarchical multiple regressions compared linear and quadratic models and then examined potential moderating effects of child abuse/neglect and gender. Exposure to a greater number of childhood risk factors was significantly related to fewer years of education, more anxiety and depression symptomatology, and more criminal arrests in adulthood. The relationship between cumulative risk and years of education demonstrated a curvilinear pattern, whereas the relationship between cumulative risk and both mental health and criminal arrests was linear. Child abuse/neglect did not moderate these relationships, although there were direct effects for both child abuse/neglect and gender on criminal arrests, with more arrests for abused/neglected individuals than controls and more for males than females. Gender interacted with cumulative risk to impact educational attainment and criminal behavior, suggesting that interventions may be more effective if tailored differently for males and females. Interventions may need to be multifaceted and designed to address these different domains of functioning.

  18. Cumulative Impact Assessment: Approaching Environmental Capacity in Development Area Using Environmental Impact Assessment Information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cho, N.; Lee, M. J.; Maeng, J. H.

    2017-12-01

    Environmental impact assessment estimates the impact of development as a business unit and establishes mitigation plan. If the development is done, its economic effects can spread to the nearby areas. So that various developments can be distributed at different time intervals. The impact of the new developments can be combined with existing environmental impacts and can have a larger impact. That is, Cumulative impact assessment is needed to consider the environmental capacity of the Nearby area. Cumulative impact assessments require policy tools such as environmental impact assessment information and cumulative impact estimation models. In Korea, environmental information (water quality, air quality, etc.) of the development site is measured for environmental impact assessment and monitored for a certain period (generally 5 years) after the project. In addition, by constructing the environmental information as a spatial database, it is possible to express the environmental impact on a regional basis spatially and to intuitively use it for development site selection. Utilizing a composite model of environmental impact assessment information and Remote Sensing data for cumulative impact estimation, That can be used as a policy decision support tool that provides quantitative information for development area management, such as time series effect and sprawl phenomenon.

  19. Developing a nursing personnel policy to address body art using an evidence-based model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dorwart, Shawna D; Kuntz, Sandra W; Armstrong, Myrna L

    2010-12-01

    An increase in the prevalence of body art as a form of self-expression has motivated health care organizations to develop policies addressing nursing personnel's body art. A systematic review of literature on body art was completed and a telephone survey of 15 hospitals was conducted to query existing policy statements addressing nursing personnel's body art. The literature established no prevalence of body art among nurses or effect of nurses' body art. Of the 13 hospitals (86%) that shared their policy on body art, none provided a rationale or references to support their existing policies. A lack of published evidence identifying the effect of body art among nurses shifts the burden of determining care outcomes to the leadership of individual hospitals. Further research on patients' perception of nursing personnel with visible body art, using an evidence-based model, is recommended. Copyright 2010, SLACK Incorporated.

  20. Indirect Effects and Potential Cumulative Impacts of Dredging in an Urbanized Estuary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sommerfield, C. K.; Chen, J.; Ralston, D. K.; Geyer, W. R.

    2016-02-01

    For over two centuries, the Delaware River and Bay estuary has supported one of the most economically important ports in the United States. To accommodate ships of ever-increasing size, the 165-km axial shipping channel has been deepened to over twice the natural depth of the estuary. While it is known that the channel has modified tides and sedimentation patterns in the estuary, unknown are the impacts on the ecosystem as a whole. A concern is the influence of channelization on sediment movement to the tidal wetland coast, which is eroding at rates on the order of meters per year. Tidal wetlands frame the entire estuary and provide vital ecosystem services ranging from recreation to carbon sequestration. To identify shifts in baseline conditions, we are performing a retrospective analysis of estuarine dynamics using historical bathymetry, numerical modeling, and observational studies. The period of interest extends from 1848 (50 years prior to channel construction) to present. During this period the channel was progressively deepened from its natural depth of 5.5 m to the current depth of 14 m. Preliminary modeling results support independent evidence that the salt intrusion and zone of rapid sediment deposition migrated several 10s of kilometers up-estuary as an indirect effect of deepening. Ironically, the locus of intense deposition now falls squarely within the Wilmington-Philadelphia port complex; river sediment that initially settles in this area is removed by maintenance dredging before it can disperse seaward. Sediment budgetary analysis indicates that the mass of sediment dredged from the upper estuary on average exceeds the mass of the new sediment supplied from the drainage basin. Hence, a probable cumulative impact of dredging is a reduction in sediment delivery to the lower estuary and fringing wetlands. Connections among the shipping channel, wave-tide interactions, and marsh edge erosion are a topic of ongoing modeling and observational research.

  1. Before Cumulative Culture : The Evolutionary Origins of Overimitation and Shared Intentionality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shipton, Ceri; Nielsen, Mark

    2015-09-01

    In the 7 million years or so since humans shared a common ancestor with chimpanzees we have colonized more of the planet's terrestrial habitat than any other mammalian species and come to account for more biomass than all other terrestrial vertebrates combined. Chimpanzees, in contrast to and under pressure from ourselves, have veered toward extinction. There are multiple reasons for the stark evolutionary trajectories humans and chimpanzees have taken. Recent theoretical and empirical interest has focused on the emergence of cumulative culture whereby technological innovations are progressively incorporated into a population's stock of skills and knowledge, generating ever more sophisticated repertoires. Here we look at the role of high-fidelity imitation and intention-reading in the establishment of cumulative culture. By focusing on the lithic record, we aim to identify when in our evolutionary history these skills became part of our ancestors' behavioral repertoire. We argue that evidence of cooperative construction in stone tool manufacture, along with speculation regarding changes to the mirror neurone system, hint at the foundations of overimitation and shared intentionality around 2 million years ago. However, these are not the only ingredients of cumulative culture, which is why we do not see convincing evidence for it until slightly more than a million years later.

  2. The Role of Cumulative Risk Assessment in Decisions about Environmental Justice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ken Sexton

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available There is strong presumptive evidence that people living in poverty and certain racial and ethnic groups bear a disproportionate burden of environmental health risk. Many have argued that conducting formal assessments of the health risk experienced by affected communities is both unnecessary and counterproductive—that instead of analyzing the situation our efforts should be devoted to fixing obvious problems and rectifying observable wrongs. We contend that formal assessment of cumulative health risks from combined effects of chemical and nonchemical stressors is a valuable tool to aid decision makers in choosing risk management options that are effective, efficient, and equitable. If used properly, cumulative risk assessment need not impair decision makers’ discretion, nor should it be used as an excuse for doing nothing in the face of evident harm. Good policy decisions require more than good intentions; they necessitate analysis of risk-related information along with careful consideration of economic issues, ethical and moral principles, legal precedents, political realities, cultural beliefs, societal values, and bureaucratic impediments. Cumulative risk assessment can provide a systematic and impartial means for informing policy decisions about environmental justice.

  3. Irrelevant sensory stimuli interfere with working memory storage: evidence from a computational model of prefrontal neurons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bancroft, Tyler D; Hockley, William E; Servos, Philip

    2013-03-01

    The encoding of irrelevant stimuli into the memory store has previously been suggested as a mechanism of interference in working memory (e.g., Lange & Oberauer, Memory, 13, 333-339, 2005; Nairne, Memory & Cognition, 18, 251-269, 1990). Recently, Bancroft and Servos (Experimental Brain Research, 208, 529-532, 2011) used a tactile working memory task to provide experimental evidence that irrelevant stimuli were, in fact, encoded into working memory. In the present study, we replicated Bancroft and Servos's experimental findings using a biologically based computational model of prefrontal neurons, providing a neurocomputational model of overwriting in working memory. Furthermore, our modeling results show that inhibition acts to protect the contents of working memory, and they suggest a need for further experimental research into the capacity of vibrotactile working memory.

  4. Gene × Environment Interactions in Schizophrenia: Evidence from Genetic Mouse Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paula Moran

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The study of gene × environment, as well as epistatic interactions in schizophrenia, has provided important insight into the complex etiopathologic basis of schizophrenia. It has also increased our understanding of the role of susceptibility genes in the disorder and is an important consideration as we seek to translate genetic advances into novel antipsychotic treatment targets. This review summarises data arising from research involving the modelling of gene × environment interactions in schizophrenia using preclinical genetic models. Evidence for synergistic effects on the expression of schizophrenia-relevant endophenotypes will be discussed. It is proposed that valid and multifactorial preclinical models are important tools for identifying critical areas, as well as underlying mechanisms, of convergence of genetic and environmental risk factors, and their interaction in schizophrenia.

  5. Gene × Environment Interactions in Schizophrenia: Evidence from Genetic Mouse Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moran, Paula; Stokes, Jennifer; Marr, Julia; Bock, Gavin; Desbonnet, Lieve; Waddington, John; O'Tuathaigh, Colm

    2016-01-01

    The study of gene × environment, as well as epistatic interactions in schizophrenia, has provided important insight into the complex etiopathologic basis of schizophrenia. It has also increased our understanding of the role of susceptibility genes in the disorder and is an important consideration as we seek to translate genetic advances into novel antipsychotic treatment targets. This review summarises data arising from research involving the modelling of gene × environment interactions in schizophrenia using preclinical genetic models. Evidence for synergistic effects on the expression of schizophrenia-relevant endophenotypes will be discussed. It is proposed that valid and multifactorial preclinical models are important tools for identifying critical areas, as well as underlying mechanisms, of convergence of genetic and environmental risk factors, and their interaction in schizophrenia.

  6. Gene × Environment Interactions in Schizophrenia: Evidence from Genetic Mouse Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marr, Julia; Bock, Gavin; Desbonnet, Lieve; Waddington, John

    2016-01-01

    The study of gene × environment, as well as epistatic interactions in schizophrenia, has provided important insight into the complex etiopathologic basis of schizophrenia. It has also increased our understanding of the role of susceptibility genes in the disorder and is an important consideration as we seek to translate genetic advances into novel antipsychotic treatment targets. This review summarises data arising from research involving the modelling of gene × environment interactions in schizophrenia using preclinical genetic models. Evidence for synergistic effects on the expression of schizophrenia-relevant endophenotypes will be discussed. It is proposed that valid and multifactorial preclinical models are important tools for identifying critical areas, as well as underlying mechanisms, of convergence of genetic and environmental risk factors, and their interaction in schizophrenia. PMID:27725886

  7. Cumulative Environmental Impacts: Science and Policy to Protect Communities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solomon, Gina M; Morello-Frosch, Rachel; Zeise, Lauren; Faust, John B

    2016-01-01

    Many communities are located near multiple sources of pollution, including current and former industrial sites, major roadways, and agricultural operations. Populations in such locations are predominantly low-income, with a large percentage of minorities and non-English speakers. These communities face challenges that can affect the health of their residents, including limited access to health care, a shortage of grocery stores, poor housing quality, and a lack of parks and open spaces. Environmental exposures may interact with social stressors, thereby worsening health outcomes. Age, genetic characteristics, and preexisting health conditions increase the risk of adverse health effects from exposure to pollutants. There are existing approaches for characterizing cumulative exposures, cumulative risks, and cumulative health impacts. Although such approaches have merit, they also have significant constraints. New developments in exposure monitoring, mapping, toxicology, and epidemiology, especially when informed by community participation, have the potential to advance the science on cumulative impacts and to improve decision making.

  8. Pesticide Cumulative Risk Assessment: Framework for Screening Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    This document provides guidance on how to screen groups of pesticides for cumulative evaluation using a two-step approach: begin with evaluation of available toxicological information and, if necessary, follow up with a risk-based screening approach.

  9. Online Scheduling in Manufacturing A Cumulative Delay Approach

    CERN Document Server

    Suwa, Haruhiko

    2013-01-01

    Online scheduling is recognized as the crucial decision-making process of production control at a phase of “being in production" according to the released shop floor schedule. Online scheduling can be also considered as one of key enablers to realize prompt capable-to-promise as well as available-to-promise to customers along with reducing production lead times under recent globalized competitive markets. Online Scheduling in Manufacturing introduces new approaches to online scheduling based on a concept of cumulative delay. The cumulative delay is regarded as consolidated information of uncertainties under a dynamic environment in manufacturing and can be collected constantly without much effort at any points in time during a schedule execution. In this approach, the cumulative delay of the schedule has the important role of a criterion for making a decision whether or not a schedule revision is carried out. The cumulative delay approach to trigger schedule revisions has the following capabilities for the ...

  10. Considering Environmental and Occupational Stressors in Cumulative Risk Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    While definitions vary across the global scientific community, cumulative risk assessments (CRAs) typically are described as exhibiting a population focus and analyzing the combined risks posed by multiple stressors. CRAs also may consider risk management alternatives as an anal...

  11. Peer tutors as learning and teaching partners: a cumulative ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... paper explores the kinds of development in tutors' thinking and action that are possible when training and development is theoretically informed, coherent, and oriented towards improving practice. Keywords: academic development, academic literacies, cumulative learning, higher education, peer tutoring, writing centres.

  12. CTD Information Guide. Preventing Cumulative Trauma Disorders in the Workplace

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    1992-01-01

    The purpose of this report is to provide Army occupational safety and health (OSH) professionals with a primer that explains the basic principles of ergonomic-hazard recognition for common cumulative trauma disorders...

  13. Cumulative radiation exposure in children with cystic fibrosis.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    O'Reilly, R

    2010-02-01

    This retrospective study calculated the cumulative radiation dose for children with cystic fibrosis (CF) attending a tertiary CF centre. Information on 77 children with a mean age of 9.5 years, a follow up time of 658 person years and 1757 studies including 1485 chest radiographs, 215 abdominal radiographs and 57 computed tomography (CT) scans, of which 51 were thoracic CT scans, were analysed. The average cumulative radiation dose was 6.2 (0.04-25) mSv per CF patient. Cumulative radiation dose increased with increasing age and number of CT scans and was greater in children who presented with meconium ileus. No correlation was identified between cumulative radiation dose and either lung function or patient microbiology cultures. Radiation carries a risk of malignancy and children are particularly susceptible. Every effort must be made to avoid unnecessary radiation exposure in these patients whose life expectancy is increasing.

  14. Conceptualising a model to guide nursing and midwifery in the community guided by an evidence review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leahy-Warren, Patricia; Mulcahy, Helen; Benefield, Lazelle; Bradley, Colin; Coffey, Alice; Donohoe, Ann; Fitzgerald, Serena; Frawley, Tim; Healy, Elizabeth; Healy, Maria; Kelly, Marcella; McCarthy, Bernard; McLoughlin, Kathleen; Meagher, Catherine; O'Connell, Rhona; O'Mahony, Aoife; Paul, Gillian; Phelan, Amanda; Stokes, Diarmuid; Walsh, Jessica; Savage, Eileen

    2017-01-01

    Successful models of nursing and midwifery in the community delivering healthcare throughout the lifespan and across a health and illness continuum are limited, yet necessary to guide global health services. Primary and community health services are the typical points of access for most people and the location where most care is delivered. The scope of primary healthcare is complex and multifaceted and therefore requires a practice framework with sound conceptual and theoretical underpinnings. The aim of this paper is to present a conceptual model informed by a scoping evidence review of the literature. A scoping evidence review of the literature was conducted using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) statement. Databases included CINAHL, MEDLINE, PsycINFO and SocINDEX using the EBSCO platform and the Cochrane Library using the keywords: model, nursing, midwifery, community, primary care. Grey literature for selected countries was searched using the Google 'advanced' search interface. Data extraction and quality appraisal for both empirical and grey literature were conducted independently by two reviewers. From 127 empirical and 24 non-empirical papers, data extraction parameters, in addition to the usual methodological features, included: the nature of nursing and midwifery; the population group; interventions and main outcomes; components of effective nursing and midwifery outcomes. The evidence was categorised into six broad areas and subsequently synthesised into four themes. These were not mutually exclusive: (1) Integrated and Collaborative Care; (2) Organisation and Delivery of Nursing and Midwifery Care in the Community; (3) Adjuncts to Nursing Care and (4) Overarching Conceptual Model. It is the latter theme that is the focus of this paper. In essence, the model depicts a person/client on a lifespan and preventative-curative trajectory. The health related needs of the client, commensurate with their point

  15. Teaching evidence-based practice: developing a curriculum model to foster evidence-based practice in undergraduate student nurses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finotto, Stefano; Carpanoni, Marika; Turroni, Elena Casadei; Camellini, Riccarda; Mecugni, Daniela

    2013-09-01

    For the nature of the Evidence-Based Practice (EBP) and its relevance to nursing, the skills that it requires should be a component in the basic Nursing degree courses. For this reason, the EBP process should be introduced early on in nursing education to develop students' independence and ability to self-learning. the aim of this study is to describe the perception that newly graduated nurses have relative to the benefits of the skills learned during the laboratory's three-year EBP in consideration of the construction of the thesis, the research of evidence and usefulness of the EBP process for the development of their professional career. A descriptive study with a sample of 300 newly graduated nurses from the Degree Course in Nursing of the University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, venue of Reggio Emilia. The data collection instrument was an anonymous questionnaire. It was possible to answer through a 10 Likert scale. The sample considers effective the research of evidence carried out (mean 6, SD 2), related to the problems of patients (mean 7, SD 2); the sample considered the skills acquired during the laboratory's three-year EBP to be useful for career development (mean 7, SD 2). the decision to include the laboratory's three-year EBP in the curriculum of the Nursing degree promotes the development of skills relating to the use of the EBP process, competence that in the literature is indicated as one of the core competencies that all health professionals should develop and maintain throughout their professional career. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Cumulative glycemia and microangiopathy in subjects with impaired glucose regulation in the Inter99 study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Munch, Inger Christine; Larsen, Michael; Kessel, Line

    2011-01-01

    .8% (CI(95) 6.8-17.1%) in subjects with screen-detected diabetes compared to normoglycemic subjects, adjusted for age, sex, and smoking. The prevalences of microalbuminuria and retinopathy were significantly increased in subjects with screen-detected diabetes after adjusting for age, sex and systolic...... in subjects with abnormal glucose metabolism, most prominently in subjects with IFG+IGT and in subjects with screen-detected diabetes. These results provide the first objective evidence that cumulative glycemic load is increased at the earliest stage of impaired glucose regulation.......AIMS: To assess cumulative glycemia, microvascular characteristics, and associated risk factors for diabetes in subjects with impaired glucose regulation. METHODS: Cross-sectional, population-based study comprising systemic characteristics in 6487 participants and ocular characteristics in 970...

  17. Cumulative Risk and Continuity in Nonparental Care from Infancy to Early Adolescence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colwell, Malinda J; Pettit, Gregory S; Meece, Darrell; Bates, John E; Dodge, Kenneth A

    2001-04-01

    Variations in amounts of nonparental care across infancy, preschool, early elementary school, and early adolescence were examined in a longitudinal sample (N = 438). Of interest was (a) continuity in use of the different arrangements, (b) whether the arrangements were additively and cumulatively associated with children's externalizing behavior problems, and (c) whether predictive relations were accounted for by social-ecological (socioeconomic status, mothers' employment status, marital status) and social-experiential (parenting quality, exposure to aggressive peers) factors. Correlations among overall amounts of care provided little evidence of cross-time continuity. Consistent with the cumulative risk perspective, Grade 1 self-care and Grade 6 unsupervised peer contact incrementally predicted Grade 6 externalizing problems. Most of the predictive associations were accounted for by family background and social relationship factors.

  18. The Quest for Evidence for Proton Therapy: Model-Based Approach and Precision Medicine

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Widder, Joachim, E-mail: j.widder@umcg.nl [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Groningen, University Medical Center Groningen, Groningen (Netherlands); Schaaf, Arjen van der [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Groningen, University Medical Center Groningen, Groningen (Netherlands); Lambin, Philippe [Department of Radiation Oncology, School for Oncology and Developmental Biology (GROW), Maastricht University Medical Center, Maastricht (Netherlands); Marijnen, Corrie A.M. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden (Netherlands); Pignol, Jean-Philippe [Department of Radiation Oncology, Erasmus Medical Center Cancer Institute, Rotterdam (Netherlands); Rasch, Coen R. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Academic Medical Center, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Slotman, Ben J. [Department of Radiation Oncology, VU Medical Center, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Verheij, Marcel [Department of Radiation Oncology, Netherlands Cancer Institute, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Langendijk, Johannes A. [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Groningen, University Medical Center Groningen, Groningen (Netherlands)

    2016-05-01

    Purpose: Reducing dose to normal tissues is the advantage of protons versus photons. We aimed to describe a method for translating this reduction into a clinically relevant benefit. Methods and Materials: Dutch scientific and health care governance bodies have recently issued landmark reports regarding generation of relevant evidence for new technologies in health care including proton therapy. An approach based on normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) models has been adopted to select patients who are most likely to experience fewer (serious) adverse events achievable by state-of-the-art proton treatment. Results: By analogy with biologically targeted therapies, the technology needs to be tested in enriched cohorts of patients exhibiting the decisive predictive marker: difference in normal tissue dosimetric signatures between proton and photon treatment plans. Expected clinical benefit is then estimated by virtue of multifactorial NTCP models. In this sense, high-tech radiation therapy falls under precision medicine. As a consequence, randomizing nonenriched populations between photons and protons is predictably inefficient and likely to produce confusing results. Conclusions: Validating NTCP models in appropriately composed cohorts treated with protons should be the primary research agenda leading to urgently needed evidence for proton therapy.

  19. CULTURAL ADAPTATIONS OF EVIDENCE-BASED HOME-VISITATION MODELS IN TRIBAL COMMUNITIES.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hiratsuka, Vanessa Y; Parker, Myra E; Sanchez, Jenae; Riley, Rebecca; Heath, Debra; Chomo, Julianna C; Beltangady, Moushumi; Sarche, Michelle

    2018-05-01

    The Tribal Maternal, Infant, and Early Childhood Home Visiting (Tribal MIECHV) Program provides federal grants to tribes, tribal consortia, tribal organizations, and urban Indian organizations to implement evidence-based home-visiting services for American Indian and Alaska Native (AI/AN) families. To date, only one evidence-based home-visiting program has been developed for use in AI/AN communities. The purpose of this article is to describe the steps that four Tribal MIECHV Programs took to assess community needs, select a home-visiting model, and culturally adapt the model for use in AI/AN communities. In these four unique Tribal MIECHV Program settings, each program employed a rigorous needs-assessment process and developed cultural modifications in accordance with community strengths and needs. Adaptations occurred in consultation with model developers, with consideration of the conceptual rationale for the program, while grounding new content in indigenous cultures. Research is needed to improve measurement of home-visiting outcomes in tribal and urban AI/AN settings, develop culturally grounded home-visiting interventions, and assess the effectiveness of home visiting in AI/AN communities. © 2018 Michigan Association for Infant Mental Health.

  20. REE and Isotopic Compositions of Lunar Basalts Demonstrate Partial Melting of Hybridized Mantle Sources after Cumulate Overturn is Required

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dygert, N. J.; Liang, Y.

    2017-12-01

    Lunar basalts maintain an important record of the composition of the lunar interior. Much of our understanding of the Moon's early evolution comes from studying their petrogenesis. Recent experimental work has advanced our knowledge of major and trace element fractionation during lunar magma ocean (LMO) crystallization [e.g., 1-3], which produced heterogeneous basalt sources in the Moon's mantle. With the new experimental constraints, we can evaluate isotopic and trace element signatures in lunar basalts in unprecedented detail, refining inferences about the Moon's dynamic history. Two petrogenetic models are invoked to explain the compositions of the basalts. The assimilation model argues they formed as primitive melts of early LMO cumulates that assimilated late LMO cumulates as they migrated upward. The cumulate overturn model argues that dense LMO cumulates sank into the lunar interior, producing hybridized sources that melted to form the basalts. Here we compare predicted Ce/Yb and Hf and Nd isotopes of partial melts of LMO cumulates with measured compositions of lunar basalts to evaluate whether they could have formed by end-member petrogenetic models. LMO crystallization models suggest all LMO cumulates have chondrite normalized Ce/Yb 1.5; these could not have formed by assimilation of any LMO cumulate or residual liquid (or KREEP basalt, which has isotopically negative ɛNd and ɛHf). In contrast, basalt REE patterns and isotopes can easily be modeled assuming partial melting of hybridized mantle sources, indicating overturn may be required. A chemical requirement for overturn independently confirms that late LMO cumulates are sufficiently low in viscosity to sink into the lunar interior, as suggested by recent rock deformation experiments [4]. Overturned, low viscosity late LMO cumulates would be relatively stable around the core [5]. High Ce/Yb basalts require that overturned cumulates were mixed back into the overlying mantle by convection within a few

  1. Cumulative query method for influenza surveillance using search engine data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seo, Dong-Woo; Jo, Min-Woo; Sohn, Chang Hwan; Shin, Soo-Yong; Lee, JaeHo; Yu, Maengsoo; Kim, Won Young; Lim, Kyoung Soo; Lee, Sang-Il

    2014-12-16

    Internet search queries have become an important data source in syndromic surveillance system. However, there is currently no syndromic surveillance system using Internet search query data in South Korea. The objective of this study was to examine correlations between our cumulative query method and national influenza surveillance data. Our study was based on the local search engine, Daum (approximately 25% market share), and influenza-like illness (ILI) data from the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. A quota sampling survey was conducted with 200 participants to obtain popular queries. We divided the study period into two sets: Set 1 (the 2009/10 epidemiological year for development set 1 and 2010/11 for validation set 1) and Set 2 (2010/11 for development Set 2 and 2011/12 for validation Set 2). Pearson's correlation coefficients were calculated between the Daum data and the ILI data for the development set. We selected the combined queries for which the correlation coefficients were .7 or higher and listed them in descending order. Then, we created a cumulative query method n representing the number of cumulative combined queries in descending order of the correlation coefficient. In validation set 1, 13 cumulative query methods were applied, and 8 had higher correlation coefficients (min=.916, max=.943) than that of the highest single combined query. Further, 11 of 13 cumulative query methods had an r value of ≥.7, but 4 of 13 combined queries had an r value of ≥.7. In validation set 2, 8 of 15 cumulative query methods showed higher correlation coefficients (min=.975, max=.987) than that of the highest single combined query. All 15 cumulative query methods had an r value of ≥.7, but 6 of 15 combined queries had an r value of ≥.7. Cumulative query method showed relatively higher correlation with national influenza surveillance data than combined queries in the development and validation set.

  2. Mapping Cumulative Impacts of Human Activities on Marine Ecosystems

    OpenAIRE

    , Seaplan

    2018-01-01

    Given the diversity of human uses and natural resources that converge in coastal waters, the potential independent and cumulative impacts of those uses on marine ecosystems are important to consider during ocean planning. This study was designed to support the development and implementation of the 2009 Massachusetts Ocean Management Plan. Its goal was to estimate and visualize the cumulative impacts of human activities on coastal and marine ecosystems in the state and federal waters off of Ma...

  3. Biofuels and Land Use Change: Applying Recent Evidence to Model Estimates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wallace E. Tyner

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Biofuels impact on global land use has been a controversial yet important topic. Up until recently, there has not been enough biofuels to have caused major land use change, so the evidence from actual global land use data has been scant. However, in the past decade, there have been 72 million hectares added to global crop cover. In this research we take advantage of this new data to calibrate the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP model and parameters. We make two major changes. First, we calibrate the land transformation parameters (called constant elasticity of transformation, CET to global regions so that the parameters better reflect the actual land cover change that has occurred. Second, we alter the land cover nesting structure. In the old GTAP model, cropland, pasture, and forest were all in the same nest suggesting, everything else being equal, that pasture or forest convert to cropland with equal ease and cost. However, we now take advantage of the fact that pasture converts to cropland at lower cost than forest. The paper provides the theoretical and empirical justification for these two model improvements. Then it re-evaluates the global land use impacts due to the USA ethanol program using the improved model tuned with actual observations. Finally, it shows that compared to the old model, the new model projects: (1 less expansion in global cropland due to ethanol expansion; (2 lower U.S. share in global cropland expansion; (3 and lower forest share in global cropland expansion.

  4. Generalized role for the cerebellum in encoding internal models: evidence from semantic processing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moberget, Torgeir; Gullesen, Eva Hilland; Andersson, Stein; Ivry, Richard B; Endestad, Tor

    2014-02-19

    The striking homogeneity of cerebellar microanatomy is strongly suggestive of a corresponding uniformity of function. Consequently, theoretical models of the cerebellum's role in motor control should offer important clues regarding cerebellar contributions to cognition. One such influential theory holds that the cerebellum encodes internal models, neural representations of the context-specific dynamic properties of an object, to facilitate predictive control when manipulating the object. The present study examined whether this theoretical construct can shed light on the contribution of the cerebellum to language processing. We reasoned that the cerebellum might perform a similar coordinative function when the context provided by the initial part of a sentence can be highly predictive of the end of the sentence. Using functional MRI in humans we tested two predictions derived from this hypothesis, building on previous neuroimaging studies of internal models in motor control. First, focal cerebellar activation-reflecting the operation of acquired internal models-should be enhanced when the linguistic context leads terminal words to be predictable. Second, more widespread activation should be observed when such predictions are violated, reflecting the processing of error signals that can be used to update internal models. Both predictions were confirmed, with predictability and prediction violations associated with increased blood oxygenation level-dependent signal in the posterior cerebellum (Crus I/II). Our results provide further evidence for cerebellar involvement in predictive language processing and suggest that the notion of cerebellar internal models may be extended to the language domain.

  5. From cultural traditions to cumulative culture: parameterizing the differences between human and nonhuman culture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kempe, Marius; Lycett, Stephen J; Mesoudi, Alex

    2014-10-21

    Diverse species exhibit cultural traditions, i.e. population-specific profiles of socially learned traits, from songbird dialects to primate tool-use behaviours. However, only humans appear to possess cumulative culture, in which cultural traits increase in complexity over successive generations. Theoretically, it is currently unclear what factors give rise to these phenomena, and consequently why cultural traditions are found in several species but cumulative culture in only one. Here, we address this by constructing and analysing cultural evolutionary models of both phenomena that replicate empirically attestable levels of cultural variation and complexity in chimpanzees and humans. In our model of cultural traditions (Model 1), we find that realistic cultural variation between populations can be maintained even when individuals in different populations invent the same traits and migration between populations is frequent, and under a range of levels of social learning accuracy. This lends support to claims that putative cultural traditions are indeed cultural (rather than genetic) in origin, and suggests that cultural traditions should be widespread in species capable of social learning. Our model of cumulative culture (Model 2) indicates that both the accuracy of social learning and the number of cultural demonstrators interact to determine the complexity of a trait that can be maintained in a population. Combining these models (Model 3) creates two qualitatively distinct regimes in which there are either a few, simple traits, or many, complex traits. We suggest that these regimes correspond to nonhuman and human cultures, respectively. The rarity of cumulative culture in nature may result from this interaction between social learning accuracy and number of demonstrators. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Evidence used in model-based economic evaluations for evaluating pharmacogenetic and pharmacogenomic tests: a systematic review protocol.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peters, Jaime L; Cooper, Chris; Buchanan, James

    2015-11-11

    Decision models can be used to conduct economic evaluations of new pharmacogenetic and pharmacogenomic tests to ensure they offer value for money to healthcare systems. These models require a great deal of evidence, yet research suggests the evidence used is diverse and of uncertain quality. By conducting a systematic review, we aim to investigate the test-related evidence used to inform decision models developed for the economic evaluation of genetic tests. We will search electronic databases including MEDLINE, EMBASE and NHS EEDs to identify model-based economic evaluations of pharmacogenetic and pharmacogenomic tests. The search will not be limited by language or date. Title and abstract screening will be conducted independently by 2 reviewers, with screening of full texts and data extraction conducted by 1 reviewer, and checked by another. Characteristics of the decision problem, the decision model and the test evidence used to inform the model will be extracted. Specifically, we will identify the reported evidence sources for the test-related evidence used, describe the study design and how the evidence was identified. A checklist developed specifically for decision analytic models will be used to critically appraise the models described in these studies. Variations in the test evidence used in the decision models will be explored across the included studies, and we will identify gaps in the evidence in terms of both quantity and quality. The findings of this work will be disseminated via a peer-reviewed journal publication and at national and international conferences. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

  7. An evidence-based health workforce model for primary and community care

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leach Matthew J

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The delivery of best practice care can markedly improve clinical outcomes in patients with chronic disease. While the provision of a skilled, multidisciplinary team is pivotal to the delivery of best practice care, the occupational or skill mix required to deliver this care is unclear; it is also uncertain whether such a team would have the capacity to adequately address the complex needs of the clinic population. This is the role of needs-based health workforce planning. The objective of this article is to describe the development of an evidence-informed, needs-based health workforce model to support the delivery of best-practice interdisciplinary chronic disease management in the primary and community care setting using diabetes as a case exemplar. Discussion Development of the workforce model was informed by a strategic review of the literature, critical appraisal of clinical practice guidelines, and a consensus elicitation technique using expert multidisciplinary clinical panels. Twenty-four distinct patient attributes that require unique clinical competencies for the management of diabetes in the primary care setting were identified. Patient attributes were grouped into four major themes and developed into a conceptual model: the Workforce Evidence-Based (WEB planning model. The four levels of the WEB model are (1 promotion, prevention, and screening of the general or high-risk population; (2 type or stage of disease; (3 complications; and (4 threats to self-care capacity. Given the number of potential combinations of attributes, the model can account for literally millions of individual patient types, each with a distinct clinical team need, which can be used to estimate the total health workforce requirement. Summary The WEB model was developed in a way that is not only reflective of the diversity in the community and clinic populations but also parsimonious and clear to present and operationalize. A key feature of the

  8. Estimating cumulative soil accumulation rates with in situ-produced cosmogenic nuclide depth profiles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Phillips, William M.

    2000-01-01

    A numerical model relating spatially averaged rates of cumulative soil accumulation and hillslope erosion to cosmogenic nuclide distribution in depth profiles is presented. Model predictions are compared with cosmogenic 21 Ne and AMS radiocarbon data from soils of the Pajarito Plateau, New Mexico. Rates of soil accumulation and hillslope erosion estimated by cosmogenic 21 Ne are significantly lower than rates indicated by radiocarbon and regional soil-geomorphic studies. The low apparent cosmogenic erosion rates are artifacts of high nuclide inheritance in cumulative soil parent material produced from erosion of old soils on hillslopes. In addition, 21 Ne profiles produced under conditions of rapid accumulation (>0.1 cm/a) are difficult to distinguish from bioturbated soil profiles. Modeling indicates that while 10 Be profiles will share this problem, both bioturbation and anomalous inheritance can be identified with measurement of in situ-produced 14 C

  9. CUMULANT STRUCTURE FOR THE BILINEAR MULTIPLICATIVE ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2005-10-06

    Oct 6, 2005 ... SEASONAL ARIMA (O,d,O) x (1 ,D,I), TIME SERIES MODEL ... R(k) = aa-' R(s), k = as, a = 1,2,3, .. . 0, otherwise he autocorrelation functions ( ac.fs ) ... -In der&ing ~ q i a t i o n (2.1) through (2.11), lwueze and Chikezie (2005) ...

  10. A probabilistic analysis of cumulative carbon emissions and long-term planetary warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fyke, Jeremy; Matthews, H Damon

    2015-01-01

    Efforts to mitigate and adapt to long-term climate change could benefit greatly from probabilistic estimates of cumulative carbon emissions due to fossil fuel burning and resulting CO 2 -induced planetary warming. Here we demonstrate the use of a reduced-form model to project these variables. We performed simulations using a large-ensemble framework with parametric uncertainty sampled to produce distributions of future cumulative emissions and consequent planetary warming. A hind-cast ensemble of simulations captured 1980–2012 historical CO 2 emissions trends and an ensemble of future projection simulations generated a distribution of emission scenarios that qualitatively resembled the suite of Representative and Extended Concentration Pathways. The resulting cumulative carbon emission and temperature change distributions are characterized by 5–95th percentile ranges of 0.96–4.9 teratonnes C (Tt C) and 1.4 °C–8.5 °C, respectively, with 50th percentiles at 3.1 Tt C and 4.7 °C. Within the wide range of policy-related parameter combinations that produced these distributions, we found that low-emission simulations were characterized by both high carbon prices and low costs of non-fossil fuel energy sources, suggesting the importance of these two policy levers in particular for avoiding dangerous levels of climate warming. With this analysis we demonstrate a probabilistic approach to the challenge of identifying strategies for limiting cumulative carbon emissions and assessing likelihoods of surpassing dangerous temperature thresholds. (letter)

  11. Low Level Evidence Suggests That Librarian-Led Instruction in Evidence Based Practice is Effective Regardless of Instructional Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lindsay J. Alcock

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available A Review of: Swanberg, S. M., Dennison, C. C., Farrell, A., Machel, V., Marton, C., O'Brien, K. K., … & Holyoke, A. N. (2016. Instructional methods used by health sciences librarians to teach evidence-based practice (EBP: a systematic review. Journal of the Medical Library Association: JMLA, 104(3, 197-208. http://dx.doi.org/10.3163/1536-5050.104.3.004 Abstract Objective – To determine both the instructional methods and their effectiveness in teaching evidence based practice (EBP by librarians in health sciences curricula. Design – Systematic review. Setting – A total of 16 databases, Google Scholar, and MLA Annual Meeting abstracts. Subjects – There were 27 studies identified through a systematic literature search. Methods – An exhaustive list of potential articles was gathered through searching 16 online databases, Google Scholar, and MLA Annual Conference abstracts. Inclusion and exclusion criteria were identified to inform the literature search and determine article eligibility. Duplicates were removed and the remaining search results were divided into sets and assigned to two reviewers who screened first by title/abstract and then by full-text. A third reviewer addressed disagreement in article inclusion. Data extraction, using a validated method described by Koufogiannakis and Wiebe (2006, and critical appraisal, using the Glasgow checklist (1999, were performed concurrently. Main Results – After removal of duplicates 30,043 articles were identified for initial title/abstract screening. Of the 637 articles assessed for full-text screening 26 articles and 1 conference proceeding ultimately met all eligibility criteria. There was no meta-analysis included in the synthesis. There were 16 articles published in library and information science journals and 10 in health sciences journals. Of those studies, 22 were conducted in the United States. A wide range of user groups was identified as participants in the studies with medical

  12. A critical examination of the youth foyer model for alleviating homelessness: Strengthening a promising evidence base

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iris Levin

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This article assesses the quality of 15 primary studies that examined the effectiveness of youth foyer or foyer-like programs on the lives of young homeless people. The youth foyer model provides an integrated approach to tackling youth homelessness, connecting affordable accommodation to training and employment. In Australia, there is growing support from government for the development and funding of foyer programs. However to date, there has been very limited development and investment in the evidence base on the effectiveness of this model in Australia or internationally. Following an extensive literature search, we argue that there is a need to lift the standard of the evidence base of youth foyer effectiveness. We discuss two main issues: the difficulty studies had validating claims of foyer effectiveness, and limitations of research design and methodology. The implications of the lack of rigour in the research reviewed are three-fold. Firstly, youth foyer evaluation study quality could be improved by: clearer methodological and model documentation; post intervention follow-up design; comparison of data to non-randomised comparison groups; and a pre-publication peer-review process. This would be supported with clearer expectations from the research community regarding the production and assessment of grey literature. Secondly, while the standard of reporting needs to be raised, the ‘gold standard’ (i.e. randomised controlled trials of research design in the scientific community is not a relevant benchmark in the field of homelessness research. This is due to the complexity of homelessness interventions and the inadequate funding of the homelessness research field. Greater investment in robust research and evaluation should accompany the substantial investment in youth foyer programs in order to accurately appraise the effectiveness of the youth foyer model. Thirdly, the lack of rigour in the studies reviewed suggests gaps in the service

  13. Growth and renewable energy in Europe: A random effect model with evidence for neutrality hypothesis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Menegaki, Angeliki N.

    2011-01-01

    This is an empirical study on the causal relationship between economic growth and renewable energy for 27 European countries in a multivariate panel framework over the period 1997-2007 using a random effect model and including final energy consumption, greenhouse gas emissions and employment as additional independent variables in the model. Empirical results do not confirm causality between renewable energy consumption and GDP, although panel causality tests unfold short-run relationships between renewable energy and greenhouse gas emissions and employment. The estimated cointegration factor refrains from unity, indicating only a weak, if any, relationship between economic growth and renewable energy consumption in Europe, suggesting evidence of the neutrality hypothesis, which can partly be explained by the uneven and insufficient exploitation of renewable energy sources across Europe.

  14. Short- and Long-Term Feedbacks on Vegetation Water Use: Unifying Evidence from Observations and Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mackay, D. S.

    2001-05-01

    Recent efforts to measure and model the interacting influences of climate, soil, and vegetation on soil water and nutrient dynamics have identified numerous important feedbacks that produce nonlinear responses. In particular, plant physiological factors that control rates of transpiration respond to soil water deficits and vapor pressure deficits (VPD) in the short-term, and to climate, nutrient cycling and disturbance in the long-term. The starting point of this presentation is the observation that in many systems, in particular forest ecosystems, conservative water use emerges as a result of short-term closure of stomata in response to high evaporative demand, and long-term vegetative canopy development under nutrient limiting conditions. Evidence for important short-term controls is presented from sap flux measurements of stand transpiration, remote sensing, and modeling of transpiration through a combination of physically-based modeling and Monte Carlo analysis. A common result is a strong association between stomatal conductance (gs) and the negative evaporative gain (∂ gs/∂ VPD) associated with the sensitivity of stomatal closure to rates of water loss. The importance of this association from the standpoint of modeling transpiration depends on the degree of canopy-atmosphere coupling. This suggests possible simplifications to future canopy component models for use in watershed and larger-scale hydrologic models for short-term processes. However, further results are presented from theoretical modeling, which suggest that feedbacks between hydrology and vegetation in current long-term (inter-annual to century) models may be too simple, as they do not capture the spatially variable nature of slow nutrient cycling in response to soil water dynamics and site history. Memory effects in the soil nutrient pools can leave lasting effects on more rapid processes associated with soil, vegetation, atmosphere coupling.

  15. Validity of Quinpirole Sensitization Rat Model of OCD: Linking Evidence from Animal and Clinical Studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stuchlik, Ales; Radostová, Dominika; Hatalova, Hana; Vales, Karel; Nekovarova, Tereza; Koprivova, Jana; Svoboda, Jan; Horacek, Jiri

    2016-01-01

    Obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) is a neuropsychiatric disorder with 1-3% prevalence. OCD is characterized by recurrent thoughts (obsessions) and repetitive behaviors (compulsions). The pathophysiology of OCD remains unclear, stressing the importance of pre-clinical studies. The aim of this article is to critically review a proposed animal model of OCD that is characterized by the induction of compulsive checking and behavioral sensitization to the D2/D3 dopamine agonist quinpirole. Changes in this model have been reported at the level of brain structures, neurotransmitter systems and other neurophysiological aspects. In this review, we consider these alterations in relation to the clinical manifestations in OCD, with the aim to discuss and evaluate axes of validity of this model. Our analysis shows that some axes of validity of quinpirole sensitization model (QSM) are strongly supported by clinical findings, such as behavioral phenomenology or roles of brain structures. Evidence on predictive validity is contradictory and ambiguous. It is concluded that this model is useful in the context of searching for the underlying pathophysiological basis of the disorder because of the relatively strong biological similarities with OCD.

  16. Development of the IMB Model and an Evidence-Based Diabetes Self-management Mobile Application.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeon, Eunjoo; Park, Hyeoun-Ae

    2018-04-01

    This study developed a diabetes self-management mobile application based on the information-motivation-behavioral skills (IMB) model, evidence extracted from clinical practice guidelines, and requirements identified through focus group interviews (FGIs) with diabetes patients. We developed a diabetes self-management (DSM) app in accordance with the following four stages of the system development life cycle. The functional and knowledge requirements of the users were extracted through FGIs with 19 diabetes patients. A system diagram, data models, a database, an algorithm, screens, and menus were designed. An Android app and server with an SSL protocol were developed. The DSM app algorithm and heuristics, as well as the usability of the DSM app were evaluated, and then the DSM app was modified based on heuristics and usability evaluation. A total of 11 requirement themes were identified through the FGIs. Sixteen functions and 49 knowledge rules were extracted. The system diagram consisted of a client part and server part, 78 data models, a database with 10 tables, an algorithm, and a menu structure with 6 main menus, and 40 user screens were developed. The DSM app was Android version 4.4 or higher for Bluetooth connectivity. The proficiency and efficiency scores of the algorithm were 90.96% and 92.39%, respectively. Fifteen issues were revealed through the heuristic evaluation, and the app was modified to address three of these issues. It was also modified to address five comments received by the researchers through the usability evaluation. The DSM app was developed based on behavioral change theory through IMB models. It was designed to be evidence-based, user-centered, and effective. It remains necessary to fully evaluate the effect of the DSM app on the DSM behavior changes of diabetes patients.

  17. Using Evidence Credibility Decay Model for dependence assessment in human reliability analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guo, Xingfeng; Zhou, Yanhui; Qian, Jin; Deng, Yong

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • A new computational model is proposed for dependence assessment in HRA. • We combined three factors of “CT”, “TR” and “SP” within Dempster–Shafer theory. • The BBA of “SP” is reconstructed by discounting rate based on the ECDM. • Simulation experiments are illustrated to show the efficiency of the proposed method. - Abstract: Dependence assessment among human errors plays an important role in human reliability analysis. When dependence between two sequent tasks exists in human reliability analysis, if the preceding task fails, the failure probability of the following task is higher than success. Typically, three major factors are considered: “Closeness in Time” (CT), “Task Relatedness” (TR) and “Similarity of Performers” (SP). Assume TR is not changed, both SP and CT influence the degree of dependence level and SP is discounted by the time as the result of combine two factors in this paper. In this paper, a new computational model is proposed based on the Dempster–Shafer Evidence Theory (DSET) and Evidence Credibility Decay Model (ECDM) to assess the dependence between tasks in human reliability analysis. First, the influenced factors among human tasks are identified and the basic belief assignments (BBAs) of each factor are constructed based on expert evaluation. Then, the BBA of SP is discounted as the result of combining two factors and reconstructed by using the ECDM, the factors are integrated into a fused BBA. Finally, the dependence level is calculated based on fused BBA. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model not only quantitatively describe the fact that the input factors influence the dependence level, but also exactly show how the dependence level regular changes with different situations of input factors.

  18. Describing phytotoxic effects on cumulative germination

    OpenAIRE

    Dias, L.S.

    2001-01-01

    Phytotoxic studies strongly depend on evaluation of germination responses, which implies the need for adequate procedures to account for distinct aspects of the germinative process. For this, indices, comparisons among treatments at various times, and model fitting have been proposed. The objective of this work is to compare the three approaches and select the one providing greater insight and precision. Speed of germination, speed of accumulated germination, the coefficient of the rate of ge...

  19. The Presence of the Chromosphere: Evidence for a Liquid Model of the Sun

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robitaille, Pierre-Marie

    2006-04-01

    Critical Opalescence occurs at the critical point. It is that point in the phase diagram where the transition between liquid and gas is no longer discernable. In the laboratory, critical opalescence occurs as the meniscus disappears. There is often strong scattering of light and a transparent solution becomes cloudy. In approaching the critical point gases slowly begin to gain order as they prepare to enter the condensed state. In this presentation, it will be advanced that the Chromosphere of the Sun represents matter at the critical point. As such, the Chromosphere experiences a unique combination of temperature, pressure and gravity wherein the gaseous matter in the corona is preparing to condense onto a liquid photosphere. It is consequently stated that the very existence of the Chromosphere, constitutes a powerful piece of evidence in favor of condensed models of the Sun (http://www.arxiv.org/html/astro-ph/0410075 [1]). Additional evidence for a liquid plasma model of the Sun will also be presented.

  20. Numerical evidence of liquid crystalline mesophases of a lollipop shaped model in two dimensions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pérez-Lemus, G. R.; Armas-Pérez, J. C.; Chapela, G. A.; Quintana-H., J.

    2017-12-01

    Small alterations in the molecular details may produce noticeable changes in the symmetry of the resulting phase behavior. It is possible to produce morphologies having different n-fold symmetries by manipulating molecular features such as chirality, polarity or anisotropy. In this paper, a two dimensional hard molecular model is introduced to study the formation of liquid crystalline phases in low dimensionality. The model is similar to that reported by Julio C. Armas-Pérez and Jacqueline Quintana-H., Phys. Rev. E 83, 051709 (2011). The main difference is the lack of chirality in the model proposed, although they share some characteristics like the geometrical polarity. Our model is called a lollipop model, because its shape is constructed by a rounded section attached to the end of a stick. Contrary to what happens in three dimensions where chiral nematogens produce interesting and complex phases such as blue phases, the lack of molecular chirality of our model generates a richer phase diagram compared to the chiral system. We show numerical and some geometrical evidences that the lack of laterality of the non chiral model seems to provide more routes of molecular self-assembly, producing triatic, a random cluster and possibly a tetratic phase behavior which were not presented in the previous work. We support our conclusions using results obtained from isobaric and isochoric Monte Carlo simulations. Properties as the n-fold order parameters such as the nematic, tetratic and triatic as well as their correlation functions were used to characterize the phases. We also provide the Fourier transform of equilibrium configurations to analyze the n-fold symmetry characteristic of each phase.

  1. Improved evidence-based genome-scale metabolic models for maize leaf, embryo, and endosperm

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Seaver, Samuel M. D.; Bradbury, Louis M. T.; Frelin, Océane; Zarecki, Raphy; Ruppin, Eytan; Hanson, Andrew D.; Henry, Christopher S.

    2015-03-10

    There is a growing demand for genome-scale metabolic reconstructions for plants, fueled by the need to understand the metabolic basis of crop yield and by progress in genome and transcriptome sequencing. Methods are also required to enable the interpretation of plant transcriptome data to study how cellular metabolic activity varies under different growth conditions or even within different organs, tissues, and developmental stages. Such methods depend extensively on the accuracy with which genes have been mapped to the biochemical reactions in the plant metabolic pathways. Errors in these mappings lead to metabolic reconstructions with an inflated number of reactions and possible generation of unreliable metabolic phenotype predictions. Here we introduce a new evidence-based genome-scale metabolic reconstruction of maize, with significant improvements in the quality of the gene-reaction associations included within our model. We also present a new approach for applying our model to predict active metabolic genes based on transcriptome data. This method includes a minimal set of reactions associated with low expression genes to enable activity of a maximum number of reactions associated with high expression genes. We apply this method to construct an organ-specific model for the maize leaf, and tissue specific models for maize embryo and endosperm cells. We validate our models using fluxomics data for the endosperm and embryo, demonstrating an improved capacity of our models to fit the available fluxomics data. All models are publicly available via the DOE Systems Biology Knowledgebase and PlantSEED, and our new method is generally applicable for analysis transcript profiles from any plant, paving the way for further in silico studies with a wide variety of plant genomes.

  2. The effect of ilmenite viscosity on the dynamics and evolution of an overturned lunar cumulate mantle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Nan; Dygert, Nick; Liang, Yan; Parmentier, E. M.

    2017-07-01

    Lunar cumulate mantle overturn and the subsequent upwelling of overturned mantle cumulates provide a potential framework for understanding the first-order thermochemical evolution of the Moon. Upwelling of ilmenite-bearing cumulates (IBCs) after the overturn has a dominant influence on the dynamics and long-term thermal evolution of the lunar mantle. An important parameter determining the stability and convective behavior of the IBC is its viscosity, which was recently constrained through rock deformation experiments. To examine the effect of IBC viscosity on the upwelling of overturned lunar cumulate mantle, here we conduct three-dimensional mantle convection models with an evolving core superposed by an IBC-rich layer, which resulted from mantle overturn after magma ocean solidification. Our modeling shows that a reduction of mantle viscosity by 1 order of magnitude, due to the presence of ilmenite, can dramatically change convective planform and long-term lunar mantle evolution. Our model results suggest a relatively stable partially molten IBC layer that has surrounded the lunar core to the present day.Plain Language SummaryThe Moon's mantle is locally ilmenite rich. Previous models exploring the convective evolution of the lunar mantle did not consider the effects of ilmenite viscosity. Recent rock deformation experiments demonstrate that Fe-Ti oxide (ilmenite) is a low viscosity phase compared to olivine and other silicate minerals. Our modeling shows that ilmenite changes the lunar mantle plume process. An ilmenite-rich layer around the lunar core would be highly stable throughout geologic time, consistent with a partially molten, low viscosity layer around the core inferred from seismic attenuation and tidal dissipation.

  3. Estimating ambiguity preferences and perceptions in multiple prior models: Evidence from the field.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dimmock, Stephen G; Kouwenberg, Roy; Mitchell, Olivia S; Peijnenburg, Kim

    2015-12-01

    We develop a tractable method to estimate multiple prior models of decision-making under ambiguity. In a representative sample of the U.S. population, we measure ambiguity attitudes in the gain and loss domains. We find that ambiguity aversion is common for uncertain events of moderate to high likelihood involving gains, but ambiguity seeking prevails for low likelihoods and for losses. We show that choices made under ambiguity in the gain domain are best explained by the α-MaxMin model, with one parameter measuring ambiguity aversion (ambiguity preferences) and a second parameter quantifying the perceived degree of ambiguity (perceptions about ambiguity). The ambiguity aversion parameter α is constant and prior probability sets are asymmetric for low and high likelihood events. The data reject several other models, such as MaxMin and MaxMax, as well as symmetric probability intervals. Ambiguity aversion and the perceived degree of ambiguity are both higher for men and for the college-educated. Ambiguity aversion (but not perceived ambiguity) is also positively related to risk aversion. In the loss domain, we find evidence of reflection, implying that ambiguity aversion for gains tends to reverse into ambiguity seeking for losses. Our model's estimates for preferences and perceptions about ambiguity can be used to analyze the economic and financial implications of such preferences.

  4. A review of the evidence linking adult attachment theory and chronic pain: presenting a conceptual model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meredith, Pamela; Ownsworth, Tamara; Strong, Jenny

    2008-03-01

    It is now well established that pain is a multidimensional phenomenon, affected by a gamut of psychosocial and biological variables. According to diathesis-stress models of chronic pain, some individuals are more vulnerable to developing disability following acute pain because they possess particular psychosocial vulnerabilities which interact with physical pathology to impact negatively upon outcome. Attachment theory, a theory of social and personality development, has been proposed as a comprehensive developmental model of pain, implicating individual adult attachment pattern in the ontogenesis and maintenance of chronic pain. The present paper reviews and critically appraises studies which link adult attachment theory with chronic pain. Together, these papers offer support for the role of insecure attachment as a diathesis (or vulnerability) for problematic adjustment to pain. The Attachment-Diathesis Model of Chronic Pain developed from this body of literature, combines adult attachment theory with the diathesis-stress approach to chronic pain. The evidence presented in this review, and the associated model, advances our understanding of the developmental origins of chronic pain conditions, with potential application in guiding early pain intervention and prevention efforts, as well as tailoring interventions to suit specific patient needs.

  5. Self-esteem Is Mostly Stable Across Young Adulthood: Evidence from Latent STARTS Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagner, Jenny; Lüdtke, Oliver; Trautwein, Ulrich

    2016-08-01

    How stable is self-esteem? This long-standing debate has led to different conclusions across different areas of psychology. Longitudinal data and up-to-date statistical models have recently indicated that self-esteem has stable and autoregressive trait-like components and state-like components. We applied latent STARTS models with the goal of replicating previous findings in a longitudinal sample of young adults (N = 4,532; Mage  = 19.60, SD = 0.85; 55% female). In addition, we applied multigroup models to extend previous findings on different patterns of stability for men versus women and for people with high versus low levels of depressive symptoms. We found evidence for the general pattern of a major proportion of stable and autoregressive trait variance and a smaller yet substantial amount of state variance in self-esteem across 10 years. Furthermore, multigroup models suggested substantial differences in the variance components: Females showed more state variability than males. Individuals with higher levels of depressive symptoms showed more state and less autoregressive trait variance in self-esteem. Results are discussed with respect to the ongoing trait-state debate and possible implications of the group differences that we found in the stability of self-esteem. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  6. ProvenCare perinatal: a model for delivering evidence/ guideline-based care for perinatal populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berry, Scott A; Laam, Leslie A; Wary, Andrea A; Mateer, Harry O; Cassagnol, Hans P; McKinley, Karen E; Nolan, Ruth A

    2011-05-01

    Geisinger Health System (GHS) has applied its ProvenCare model to demonstrate that a large integrated health care delivery system, enabled by an electronic health record (EHR), could reengineer a complicated clinical process, reduce unwarranted variation, and provide evidence-based care for patients with a specified clinical condition. In 2007 GHS began to apply the model to a more complicated, longer-term condition of "wellness"--perinatal care. ADAPTING PROVENCARE TO PERINATAL CARE: The ProvenCare Perinatal initiative was more complex than the five previous ProvenCare endeavors in terms of breadth, scope, and duration. Each of the 22 sites created a process flow map to depict the current, real-time process at each location. The local practice site providers-physicians and mid-level practitioners-reached consensus on 103 unique best practice measures (BPMs), which would be tracked for every patient. These maps were then used to create a single standardized pathway that included the BPMs but also preserved some unique care offerings that reflected the needs of the local context. A nine-phase methodology, expanded from the previous six-phase model, was implemented on schedule. Pre- to postimplementation improvement occurred for all seven BPMs or BPM bundles that were considered the most clinically relevant, with five statistically significant. In addition, the rate of primary cesarean sections decreased by 32%, and birth trauma remained unchanged as the number of vaginal births increased. Preliminary experience suggests that integrating evidence/guideline-based best practices into work flows in inpatient and outpatient settings can achieve improvements in daily patient care processes and outcomes.

  7. On the duration and intensity of cumulative advantage competitions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Bo; Sun, Liyuan; Figueiredo, Daniel R.; Ribeiro, Bruno; Towsley, Don

    2015-11-01

    Network growth can be framed as a competition for edges among nodes in the network. As with various other social and physical systems, skill (fitness) and luck (random chance) act as fundamental forces driving competition dynamics. In the context of networks, cumulative advantage (CA)—the rich-get-richer effect—is seen as a driving principle governing the edge accumulation process. However, competitions coupled with CA exhibit non-trivial behavior and little is formally known about duration and intensity of CA competitions. By isolating two nodes in an ideal CA competition, we provide a mathematical understanding of how CA exacerbates the role of luck in detriment of skill. We show, for instance, that when nodes start with few edges, an early stroke of luck can place the less skilled in the lead for an extremely long period of time, a phenomenon we call ‘struggle of the fittest’. We prove that duration of a simple skill and luck competition model exhibit power-law tails when CA is present, regardless of skill difference, which is in sharp contrast to the exponential tails when fitness is distinct but CA is absent. We also prove that competition intensity is always upper bounded by an exponential tail, irrespective of CA and skills. Thus, CA competitions can be extremely long (infinite mean, depending on fitness ratio) but almost never very intense. The theoretical results are corroborated by extensive numerical simulations. Our findings have important implications to competitions not only among nodes in networks but also in contexts that leverage socio-physical models embodying CA competitions.

  8. On the duration and intensity of cumulative advantage competitions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jiang, Bo; Towsley, Don; Sun, Liyuan; Figueiredo, Daniel R; Ribeiro, Bruno

    2015-01-01

    Network growth can be framed as a competition for edges among nodes in the network. As with various other social and physical systems, skill (fitness) and luck (random chance) act as fundamental forces driving competition dynamics. In the context of networks, cumulative advantage (CA)—the rich-get-richer effect—is seen as a driving principle governing the edge accumulation process. However, competitions coupled with CA exhibit non-trivial behavior and little is formally known about duration and intensity of CA competitions. By isolating two nodes in an ideal CA competition, we provide a mathematical understanding of how CA exacerbates the role of luck in detriment of skill. We show, for instance, that when nodes start with few edges, an early stroke of luck can place the less skilled in the lead for an extremely long period of time, a phenomenon we call ‘struggle of the fittest’. We prove that duration of a simple skill and luck competition model exhibit power-law tails when CA is present, regardless of skill difference, which is in sharp contrast to the exponential tails when fitness is distinct but CA is absent. We also prove that competition intensity is always upper bounded by an exponential tail, irrespective of CA and skills. Thus, CA competitions can be extremely long (infinite mean, depending on fitness ratio) but almost never very intense. The theoretical results are corroborated by extensive numerical simulations. Our findings have important implications to competitions not only among nodes in networks but also in contexts that leverage socio-physical models embodying CA competitions. (paper)

  9. Baseline for the cumulants of net-proton distributions at STAR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Luo, Xiaofeng; Mohanty, Bedangadas; Xu, Nu

    2014-01-01

    We present a systematic comparison between the recently measured cumulants of the net-proton distributions by STAR for 0–5% central Au + Au collisions at √(s NN )=7.7–200 GeV and two kinds of possible baseline measure, the Poisson and Binomial baselines. These baseline measures are assuming that the proton and anti-proton distributions independently follow Poisson statistics or Binomial statistics. The higher order cumulant net-proton data are observed to deviate from all the baseline measures studied at 19.6 and 27 GeV. We also compare the net-proton with net-baryon fluctuations in UrQMD and AMPT model, and convert the net-proton fluctuations to net-baryon fluctuations in AMPT model by using a set of formula

  10. Maintenance hemodialysis patients have high cumulative radiation exposure.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Kinsella, Sinead M

    2010-10-01

    Hemodialysis is associated with an increased risk of neoplasms which may result, at least in part, from exposure to ionizing radiation associated with frequent radiographic procedures. In order to estimate the average radiation exposure of those on hemodialysis, we conducted a retrospective study of 100 patients in a university-based dialysis unit followed for a median of 3.4 years. The number and type of radiological procedures were obtained from a central radiology database, and the cumulative effective radiation dose was calculated using standardized, procedure-specific radiation levels. The median annual radiation dose was 6.9 millisieverts (mSv) per patient-year. However, 14 patients had an annual cumulative effective radiation dose over 20 mSv, the upper averaged annual limit for occupational exposure. The median total cumulative effective radiation dose per patient over the study period was 21.7 mSv, in which 13 patients had a total cumulative effective radiation dose over 75 mSv, a value reported to be associated with a 7% increased risk of cancer-related mortality. Two-thirds of the total cumulative effective radiation dose was due to CT scanning. The average radiation exposure was significantly associated with the cause of end-stage renal disease, history of ischemic heart disease, transplant waitlist status, number of in-patient hospital days over follow-up, and death during the study period. These results highlight the substantial exposure to ionizing radiation in hemodialysis patients.

  11. A sampling-based computational strategy for the representation of epistemic uncertainty in model predictions with evidence theory.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johnson, J. D. (Prostat, Mesa, AZ); Oberkampf, William Louis; Helton, Jon Craig (Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ); Storlie, Curtis B. (North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC)

    2006-10-01

    Evidence theory provides an alternative to probability theory for the representation of epistemic uncertainty in model predictions that derives from epistemic uncertainty in model inputs, where the descriptor epistemic is used to indicate uncertainty that derives from a lack of knowledge with respect to the appropriate values to use for various inputs to the model. The potential benefit, and hence appeal, of evidence theory is that it allows a less restrictive specification of uncertainty than is possible within the axiomatic structure on which probability theory is based. Unfortunately, the propagation of an evidence theory representation for uncertainty through a model is more computationally demanding than the propagation of a probabilistic representation for uncertainty, with this difficulty constituting a serious obstacle to the use of evidence theory in the representation of uncertainty in predictions obtained from computationally intensive models. This presentation describes and illustrates a sampling-based computational strategy for the representation of epistemic uncertainty in model predictions with evidence theory. Preliminary trials indicate that the presented strategy can be used to propagate uncertainty representations based on evidence theory in analysis situations where naive sampling-based (i.e., unsophisticated Monte Carlo) procedures are impracticable due to computational cost.

  12. Implementing three evidence-based program models: early lessons from the Teen Pregnancy Prevention Replication Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelsey, Meredith; Layzer, Jean

    2014-03-01

    This article describes some of the early implementation challenges faced by nine grantees participating in the Teen Pregnancy Prevention Replication Study and their response to them. The article draws on information collected as part of a comprehensive implementation study. Sources include site and program documents; program officer reports; notes from site investigation, selection and negotiation; ongoing communications with grantees as part of putting the study into place; and semi-structured interviews with program staff. The issues faced by grantees in implementing evidence-based programs designed to prevent teen pregnancy varied by program model. Grantees implementing a classroom-based curriculum faced challenges in delivering the curriculum within the constraints of school schedules and calendars (program length and size of class). Grantees implementing a culturally tailored curriculum faced a series of challenges, including implementing the intervention as part of the regular school curriculum in schools with diverse populations; low attendance when delivered as an after-school program; and resistance on the part of schools to specific curriculum content. The third set of grantees, implementing a program in clinics, faced challenges in identifying and recruiting young women into the program and in retaining young women once they were in the program. The experiences of these grantees reflect some of the complexities that should be carefully considered when choosing to replicate evidence-based programs. The Teen Pregnancy Prevention replication study will provide important context for assessing the effectiveness of some of the more widely replicated evidence-based programs. Copyright © 2014 Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine. All rights reserved.

  13. Stagewise pseudo-value regression for time-varying effects on the cumulative incidence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zöller, Daniela; Schmidtmann, Irene; Weinmann, Arndt

    2016-01-01

    In a competing risks setting, the cumulative incidence of an event of interest describes the absolute risk for this event as a function of time. For regression analysis, one can either choose to model all competing events by separate cause-specific hazard models or directly model the association...... for time-varying effects. This is implemented by coupling variable selection between the grid times, but determining estimates separately. The effect estimates are regularized to also allow for model fitting with a low to moderate number of observations. This technique is illustrated in an application...

  14. Probabilistic cumulative risk assessment of anti-androgenic pesticides in food

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Müller, Anne Kirstine; Bosgra, Sieto; Boon, Polly E.

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, we present a cumulative risk assessment of three anti-androgenic pesticides (vinclozolin, procymidone and prochloraz) using the relative potency factor (RPF) approach and an integrated probabilistic risk assessment (IPRA) model. RPFs for each substance were estimated for three......) and the fraction of individuals with IMoEs vinclozolin, procymidone and prochloraz is not likely to be of concern for the reproductive development of their male foetuses. However...

  15. Little Evidence Exists To Support The Expectation That Providers Would Consolidate To Enter New Payment Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neprash, Hannah T; Chernew, Michael E; McWilliams, J Michael

    2017-02-01

    Provider consolidation has been associated with higher health care prices and spending. The prevailing wisdom is that payment reform will accelerate consolidation, especially between physicians and hospitals and among physician groups, as providers position themselves to bear financial risk for the full continuum of patient care. Drawing on data from a number of sources from 2008 onward, we examined the relationship between Medicare's accountable care organization (ACO) programs and provider consolidation. We found that consolidation was under way in the period 2008-10, before the Affordable Care Act (ACA) established the ACO programs. While the number of hospital mergers and the size of specialty-oriented physician groups increased after the ACA was passed, we found minimal evidence that consolidation was associated with ACO penetration at the market level or with physicians' participation in ACOs within markets. We conclude that payment reform has been associated with little acceleration in consolidation in addition to trends already under way, but there is evidence of potential defensive consolidation in response to new payment models. Project HOPE—The People-to-People Health Foundation, Inc.

  16. Estimating ambiguity preferences and perceptions in multiple prior models: Evidence from the field

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dimmock, Stephen G.; Kouwenberg, Roy; Mitchell, Olivia S.; Peijnenburg, Kim

    2016-01-01

    We develop a tractable method to estimate multiple prior models of decision-making under ambiguity. In a representative sample of the U.S. population, we measure ambiguity attitudes in the gain and loss domains. We find that ambiguity aversion is common for uncertain events of moderate to high likelihood involving gains, but ambiguity seeking prevails for low likelihoods and for losses. We show that choices made under ambiguity in the gain domain are best explained by the α-MaxMin model, with one parameter measuring ambiguity aversion (ambiguity preferences) and a second parameter quantifying the perceived degree of ambiguity (perceptions about ambiguity). The ambiguity aversion parameter α is constant and prior probability sets are asymmetric for low and high likelihood events. The data reject several other models, such as MaxMin and MaxMax, as well as symmetric probability intervals. Ambiguity aversion and the perceived degree of ambiguity are both higher for men and for the college-educated. Ambiguity aversion (but not perceived ambiguity) is also positively related to risk aversion. In the loss domain, we find evidence of reflection, implying that ambiguity aversion for gains tends to reverse into ambiguity seeking for losses. Our model’s estimates for preferences and perceptions about ambiguity can be used to analyze the economic and financial implications of such preferences. PMID:26924890

  17. An Organizational Model for Excellence in Healthcare Delivery: Evidence From Winners of the Baldrige Quality Award.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffith, John R

    Winners of the Baldrige National Quality Award in healthcare have documented top quartile clinical outcomes and patient satisfaction across a variety of American communities and a full spectrum of care. Their results also show high levels of satisfaction among physicians, nurses, and other workers, as well as effective financial performance. The managerial methods they use-collectively, the Baldrige model-are consistent with organizational theory literature and are found across all winners. The winners have sustained excellence after winning and expanded it by acquisition of other healthcare organizations.The model differs substantially from traditional management approaches in healthcare delivery. It is a comprehensive program that emphasizes a shared focus on excellence, systematically responsive management, evidence-based medicine, multidimensional measures and negotiated goals, improvement of work processes, thorough training, and extensive rewards. The model could be expanded on a much larger scale. Doing so successfully would substantially improve the quality and cost of healthcare, as well as the satisfaction and commitment of care providers and other staff. The opportunity deserves further study and trial by large healthcare delivery systems, insurers, and consulting companies.

  18. Evidence for the Magnetic Breakout Model in an Equatorial Coronal-hole Jet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Pankaj; Karpen, Judith T.; Antiochos, Spiro K.; Wyper, Peter F.; DeVore, C. Richard; DeForest, Craig E.

    2018-02-01

    Small, impulsive jets commonly occur throughout the solar corona, but are especially visible in coronal holes. Evidence is mounting that jets are part of a continuum of eruptions that extends to much larger coronal mass ejections and eruptive flares. Because coronal-hole jets originate in relatively simple magnetic structures, they offer an ideal testbed for theories of energy buildup and release in the full range of solar eruptions. We analyzed an equatorial coronal-hole jet observed by the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO)/AIA on 2014 January 9 in which the magnetic-field structure was consistent with the embedded-bipole topology that we identified and modeled previously as an origin of coronal jets. In addition, this event contained a mini-filament, which led to important insights into the energy storage and release mechanisms. SDO/HMI magnetograms revealed footpoint motions in the primary minority-polarity region at the eruption site, but show negligible flux emergence or cancellation for at least 16 hr before the eruption. Therefore, the free energy powering this jet probably came from magnetic shear concentrated at the polarity inversion line within the embedded bipole. We find that the observed activity sequence and its interpretation closely match the predictions of the breakout jet model, strongly supporting the hypothesis that the breakout model can explain solar eruptions on a wide range of scales.

  19. Embedding inflation into the Standard Model — More evidence for classical scale invariance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kannike, Kristjan; Racioppi, Antonio; Raidal, Martti

    2014-01-01

    If cosmological inflation is due to a slowly rolling single inflation field taking trans-Planckian values as suggested by the BICEP2 measurement of primordial tensor modes in CMB, embedding inflation into the Standard Model challenges standard paradigm of effective field theories. Together with an apparent absence of Planck scale contributions to the Higgs mass and to the cosmological constant, BICEP2 provides further experimental evidence for the absence of large M_P induced operators. We show that classical scale invariance — the paradigm that all fundamental scales in Nature are induced by quantum effects — solves the problem and allows for a remarkably simple scale-free Standard Model extension with inflaton without extending the gauge group. Due to trans-Planckian inflaton values and vevs, a dynamically induced Coleman-Weinberg-type inflaton potential of the model can predict tensor-to-scalar ratio r in a large range, converging around the prediction of chaotic m"2ϕ"2 inflation for a large trans-Planckian value of the inflaton vev. Precise determination of r in future experiments will single out a unique scale-free inflation potential, allowing to test the proposed field-theoretic framework.

  20. Nutrition and dementia care: developing an evidence-based model for nutritional care in nursing homes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murphy, Jane L; Holmes, Joanne; Brooks, Cindy

    2017-02-14

    There is a growing volume of research to offer improvements in nutritional care for people with dementia living in nursing homes. Whilst a number of interventions have been identified to support food and drink intake, there has been no systematic research to understand the factors for improving nutritional care from the perspectives of all those delivering care in nursing homes. The aim of this study was to develop a research informed model for understanding the complex nutritional problems associated with eating and drinking for people with dementia. We conducted nine focus groups and five semi-structured interviews with those involved or who have a level of responsibility for providing food and drink and nutritional care in nursing homes (nurses, care workers, catering assistants, dietitians, speech and language therapists) and family carers. The resulting conceptual model was developed by eliciting care-related processes, thus supporting credibility from the perspective of the end-users. The seven identified domain areas were person-centred nutritional care (the overarching theme); availability of food and drink; tools, resources and environment; relationship to others when eating and drinking; participation in activities; consistency of care and provision of information. This collaboratively developed, person-centred model can support the design of new education and training tools and be readily translated into existing programmes. Further research is needed to evaluate whether these evidence-informed approaches have been implemented successfully and adopted into practice and policy contexts and can demonstrate effectiveness for people living with dementia.

  1. Cumulative Trauma Among Mayas Living in Southeast Florida.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millender, Eugenia I; Lowe, John

    2017-06-01

    Mayas, having experienced genocide, exile, and severe poverty, are at high risk for the consequences of cumulative trauma that continually resurfaces through current fear of an uncertain future. Little is known about the mental health and alcohol use status of this population. This correlational study explored t/he relationship of cumulative trauma as it relates to social determinants of health (years in the United States, education, health insurance status, marital status, and employment), psychological health (depression symptoms), and health behaviors (alcohol use) of 102 Guatemalan Mayas living in Southeast Florida. The results of this study indicated that, as specific social determinants of health and cumulative trauma increased, depression symptoms (particularly among women) and the risk for harmful alcohol use (particularly among men) increased. Identifying risk factors at an early stage before serious disease or problems are manifest provides room for early screening leading to early identification, early treatment, and better outcomes.

  2. Baltic Sea biodiversity status vs. cumulative human pressures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Jesper H.; Halpern, Benjamin S.; Korpinen, Samuli

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Many studies have tried to explain spatial and temporal variations in biodiversity status of marine areas from a single-issue perspective, such as fishing pressure or coastal pollution, yet most continental seas experience a wide range of human pressures. Cumulative impact assessments have...... been developed to capture the consequences of multiple stressors for biodiversity, but the ability of these assessments to accurately predict biodiversity status has never been tested or ground-truthed. This relationship has similarly been assumed for the Baltic Sea, especially in areas with impaired...... status, but has also never been documented. Here we provide a first tentative indication that cumulative human impacts relate to ecosystem condition, i.e. biodiversity status, in the Baltic Sea. Thus, cumulative impact assessments offer a promising tool for informed marine spatial planning, designation...

  3. The Unemployment-Stock Market Relationship in South Africa: Evidence from Symmetric and Asymmetric Cointegration Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew Phiri

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available In this study, we examine linear and nonlinear cointegration and causal relations between unemployment and stock market returns in South Africa using quarterly data collected between 1994:Q1 and 2016:Q1. Our empirical results reveal significant cointegration effects between the time series in both linear and nonlinear models, even though both frameworks ultimately reject the notion of any causal relations between the variables. Collectively, our study rejects the notion of unemployment being a good predictor for stock market returns and neither do developments in the stock market have any effect on the unemployment rate. Such evidence advocates for weak-form efficiency in the JSE equity prices whereby unemployment data cannot help investors to predict the movement of future share prices and further suggests that policymakers cannot rely on stock market development as an avenue towards lowering the prevailingly high levels of unemployment as set in current macroeconomic policy objectives.

  4. Intertwining evidence- and model-based reasoning in physics sensemaking: An example from electrostatics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russ, Rosemary S.; Odden, Tor Ole B.

    2017-12-01

    Our field has long valued the goal of teaching students not just the facts of physics, but also the thinking and reasoning skills of professional physicists. The complexity inherent in scientific reasoning demands that we think carefully about how we conceptualize for ourselves, enact in our classes, and encourage in our students the relationship between the multifaceted practices of professional science. The current study draws on existing research in the philosophy of science and psychology to advocate for intertwining two important aspects of scientific reasoning: using evidence from experimentation and modeling. We present a case from an undergraduate physics course to illustrate how these aspects can be intertwined productively and describe specific ways in which these aspects of reasoning can mutually reinforce one another in student learning. We end by discussing implications for this work for instruction in introductory physics courses and for research on scientific reasoning at the undergraduate level.

  5. Bi-national cross-validation of an evidence-based conduct problem prevention model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porta, Carolyn M; Bloomquist, Michael L; Garcia-Huidobro, Diego; Gutiérrez, Rafael; Vega, Leticia; Balch, Rosita; Yu, Xiaohui; Cooper, Daniel K

    2018-04-01

    To (a) explore the preferences of Mexican parents and Spanish-speaking professionals working with migrant Latino families in Minnesota regarding the Mexican-adapted brief model versus the original conduct problems intervention and (b) identifying the potential challenges, and preferred solutions, to implementation of a conduct problems preventive intervention. The core practice elements of a conduct problems prevention program originating in the United States were adapted for prevention efforts in Mexico. Three focus groups were conducted in the United States, with Latino parents (n = 24; 2 focus groups) and professionals serving Latino families (n = 9; 1 focus group), to compare and discuss the Mexican-adapted model and the original conduct problems prevention program. Thematic analysis was conducted on the verbatim focus group transcripts in the original language spoken. Participants preferred the Mexican-adapted model. The following key areas were identified for cultural adaptation when delivering a conduct problems prevention program with Latino families: recruitment/enrollment strategies, program delivery format, and program content (i.e., child skills training, parent skills training, child-parent activities, and child-parent support). For both models, strengths, concerns, barriers, and strategies for overcoming concerns and barriers were identified. We summarize recommendations offered by participants to strengthen the effective implementation of a conduct problems prevention model with Latino families in the United States. This project demonstrates the strength in binational collaboration to critically examine cultural adaptations of evidence-based prevention programs that could be useful to diverse communities, families, and youth in other settings. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

  6. Production of cumulative protons in the pion-carbon interactions at 5 GeV/c

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abdinov, O.B.; Bajramov, A.A.; Budagov, Yu.A.; Valkar, Sh.; Dvornik, A.M.; Lomakin, Yu.F.; Majlov, A.A.; Flyagin, V.B.; Kharzheev, Yu.N.

    1983-01-01

    For the π -12 C interactions at the incident momentum of 5 GeV/c the relation between the divergence angle and the sum of kinetic energies of two protons, one of which is emitted into the backward hemisphere, and the other into the forward hemisphere, in the laboratory system is investigated. The obtained results can be considered as an evidence to that the absorption of slow pions is a possible mechanism responsible for the cumulative production of protons in the momentum range of 0.2-0.6 GeV/c

  7. Cumulative carbon as a policy framework for achieving climate stabilization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthews, H. Damon; Solomon, Susan; Pierrehumbert, Raymond

    2012-01-01

    The primary objective of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change is to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations at a level that will avoid dangerous climate impacts. However, greenhouse gas concentration stabilization is an awkward framework within which to assess dangerous climate change on account of the significant lag between a given concentration level and the eventual equilibrium temperature change. By contrast, recent research has shown that global temperature change can be well described by a given cumulative carbon emissions budget. Here, we propose that cumulative carbon emissions represent an alternative framework that is applicable both as a tool for climate mitigation as well as for the assessment of potential climate impacts. We show first that both atmospheric CO2 concentration at a given year and the associated temperature change are generally associated with a unique cumulative carbon emissions budget that is largely independent of the emissions scenario. The rate of global temperature change can therefore be related to first order to the rate of increase of cumulative carbon emissions. However, transient warming over the next century will also be strongly affected by emissions of shorter lived forcing agents such as aerosols and methane. Non-CO2 emissions therefore contribute to uncertainty in the cumulative carbon budget associated with near-term temperature targets, and may suggest the need for a mitigation approach that considers separately short- and long-lived gas emissions. By contrast, long-term temperature change remains primarily associated with total cumulative carbon emissions owing to the much longer atmospheric residence time of CO2 relative to other major climate forcing agents. PMID:22869803

  8. Cumulative Risk and Adolescent's Internalizing and Externalizing Problems: The Mediating Roles of Maternal Responsiveness and Self-Regulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doan, Stacey N.; Fuller-Rowell, Thomas E.; Evans, Gary W.

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of the present study was to examine longitudinal associations among maternal responsiveness, self-regulation, and behavioral adjustment in adolescents. The authors used structural equation modeling to test a model that demonstrates that the effects of early cumulative risk on behavioral problems is mediated by maternal responsiveness…

  9. The role of factorial cumulants in reactor neutron noise theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Colombino, A.; Pacilio, N.; Sena, G.

    1979-01-01

    The physical meaning and the combinatorial implications of the factorial cumulant of a state variable such as the number of neutrons or the number of neutron counts are specified. Features of the presentation are: (1) the fission process is treated in its entirety without the customary binary emission restriction, (b) the introduction of the factorial cumulants helps in reducing the complexity of the mathematical problems, (c) all the solutions can be obtained analytically. Only the ergodic hypothesis for the neutron population evolution is dealt with. (author)

  10. Super-Resolution Algorithm in Cumulative Virtual Blanking

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montillet, J. P.; Meng, X.; Roberts, G. W.; Woolfson, M. S.

    2008-11-01

    The proliferation of mobile devices and the emergence of wireless location-based services have generated consumer demand for precise location. In this paper, the MUSIC super-resolution algorithm is applied to time delay estimation for positioning purposes in cellular networks. The goal is to position a Mobile Station with UMTS technology. The problem of Base-Stations herability is solved using Cumulative Virtual Blanking. A simple simulator is presented using DS-SS signal. The results show that MUSIC algorithm improves the time delay estimation in both the cases whether or not Cumulative Virtual Blanking was carried out.

  11. Integrating environmental monitoring with cumulative effects management and decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cronmiller, Joshua G; Noble, Bram F

    2018-05-01

    Cumulative effects (CE) monitoring is foundational to emerging regional and watershed CE management frameworks, yet monitoring is often poorly integrated with CE management and decision-making processes. The challenges are largely institutional and organizational, more so than scientific or technical. Calls for improved integration of monitoring with CE management and decision making are not new, but there has been limited research on how best to integrate environmental monitoring programs to ensure credible CE science and to deliver results that respond to the more immediate questions and needs of regulatory decision makers. This paper examines options for the integration of environmental monitoring with CE frameworks. Based on semistructured interviews with practitioners, regulators, and other experts in the Lower Athabasca, Alberta, Canada, 3 approaches to monitoring system design are presented. First, a distributed monitoring system, reflecting the current approach in the Lower Athabasca, where monitoring is delegated to different external programs and organizations; second, a 1-window system in which monitoring is undertaken by a single, in-house agency for the purpose of informing management and regulatory decision making; third, an independent system driven primarily by CE science and understanding causal relationships, with knowledge adopted for decision support where relevant to specific management questions. The strengths and limitations of each approach are presented. A hybrid approach may be optimal-an independent, nongovernment, 1-window model for CE science, monitoring, and information delivery-capitalizing on the strengths of distributed, 1-window, and independent monitoring systems while mitigating their weaknesses. If governments are committed to solving CE problems, they must invest in the long-term science needed to do so; at the same time, if science-based monitoring programs are to be sustainable over the long term, they must be responsive to

  12. Cumulative Effects of Barriers on the Movements of Forest Birds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marc Bélisle

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available Although there is a consensus of opinion that habitat fragmentation has deleterious effects on animal populations, primarily by inhibiting dispersal among remaining patches, there have been few explicit demonstrations of the ways by which degraded habitats actually constrain individual movement. Two impediments are primarily responsible for this paucity: it is difficult to separate the effects of habitat fragmentation (configuration from habitat loss (composition, and conventional measures of fragmented habitats are assumed to be, but probably are not, isotropic. We addressed these limitations by standardizing differences in forest cover in a clearly anisotropic configuration of habitat fragmentation by conducting a homing experiment with three species of forest birds in the Bow Valley of Banff National Park, Canada. Birds were translocated (1.2-3.5  km either parallel or perpendicular to four/five parallel barriers that are assumed to impede the cross-valley travel of forest-dependent animals. Taken together, individuals exhibited longer return times when they were translocated across these barriers, but differences among species suggest a more complex interpretation. A long-distance migrant (Yellow-rumped Warbler, Dendroica coronata behaved as predicted, but a short-distance migrant (Golden-crowned Kinglet, Regulus satrapa was indifferent to barrier configuration. A resident (Red-breasted Nuthatch, Sitta canadensis exhibited longer return times when it was translocated parallel to the barriers. Our results suggest that an anisotropic arrangement of small, open areas in fragmented landscapes can have a cumulative barrier effect on the movement of forest animals, but that both modelers and managers will have to acknowledge potentially counterintuitive differences among species to predict the effect that these may have on individual movement and, ultimately, dispersal.

  13. TOWARD A CONTINGENCY MODEL FOR HOSPITAL-BASED HEALTH TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT: EVIDENCE FROM ADHOPHTA PROJECT.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cicchetti, Americo; Iacopino, Valentina; Coretti, Silvia; Fiore, Alessandra; Marchetti, Marco; Sampietro-Colom, Laura; Kidholm, Kristian; Wasserfallen, Jean-Blaise; Kahveci, Rabia; Halmesmäki, Esa; Rosenmöller, Magdalene; Wild, Claudia; Kivet, Raul-Allan

    2018-01-01

    Hospital-based health technology assessment (HB-HTA) is becoming increasingly relevant because of its role in managing the introduction and withdrawal of health technologies. The organizational arrangement in which HB-HTA activities are conducted depends on several contextual factors, although the dominant models have several similarities. The aims of this study were to explore, describe, interpret, and explain seven cases of the application of HB-HTA logic and to propose a classification for HB-HTA organizational models which may be beneficial for policy makers and HTA professionals. The study was part of the AdHopHTA Project, granted under the European 7th Framework Research Programme. A case study methodology was applied to analyze seven HB-HTA initiatives in seven countries, with collection of qualitative and quantitative data. Cross-case analysis was performed within the framework of contingent organizational theory. Evidence showed that some organizational or "structural" variables, namely the level of procedure formalization/structuration and the level of integration with other HTA bodies at the national, regional, and provincial levels, predominantly shape the HB-HTA approach, determining a contingency model of HB-HTA. Crossing the two variables, four options have emerged: integrated specialized HTA unit, stand-alone HTA unit, integrated-essential HTA, independent group unit. No one-best-way approach can be used for HTA at the hospital level. Rather, the characteristics of HTA models depend on many contextual factors. Such conceptualization may aid the diffusion of HB-HTA to inform managerial decision making and clinical practice.

  14. Heavy Metal Exposure and Metabolic Syndrome: Evidence from Human and Model System Studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Planchart, Antonio; Green, Adrian; Hoyo, Cathrine; Mattingly, Carolyn J

    2018-03-01

    Metabolic syndrome (MS) describes the co-occurrence of conditions that increase one's risk for heart disease and other disorders such as diabetes and stroke. The worldwide increase in the prevalence of MS cannot be fully explained by lifestyle factors such as sedentary behavior and caloric intake alone. Environmental exposures, such as heavy metals, have been implicated, but results are conflicting and possible mechanisms remain unclear. To assess recent progress in determining a possible role between heavy metal exposure and MS, we reviewed epidemiological and model system data for cadmium (Cd), lead (Pb), and mercury (Hg) from the last decade. Data from 36 epidemiological studies involving 17 unique countries/regions and 13 studies leveraging model systems are included in this review. Epidemiological and model system studies support a possible association between heavy metal exposure and MS or comorbid conditions; however, results remain conflicting. Epidemiological studies were predominantly cross-sectional and collectively, they highlight a global interest in this question and reveal evidence of differential susceptibility by sex and age to heavy metal exposures. In vivo studies in rats and mice and in vitro cell-based assays provide insights into potential mechanisms of action relevant to MS including altered regulation of lipid and glucose homeostasis, adipogenesis, and oxidative stress. Heavy metal exposure may contribute to MS or comorbid conditions; however, available data are conflicting. Causal inference remains challenging as epidemiological data are largely cross-sectional; and variation in study design, including samples used for heavy metal measurements, age of subjects at which MS outcomes are measured; the scope and treatment of confounding factors; and the population demographics vary widely. Prospective studies, standardization or increased consistency across study designs and reporting, and consideration of molecular mechanisms informed by model

  15. Cumulative childhood trauma and psychological maladjustment of sexually abused children in Korea: mediating effects of emotion regulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Ji Young; Oh, Kyung Ja

    2014-02-01

    The purpose of the present study was to identify the mediating effects of emotion regulation on the association between cumulative childhood trauma and behavior problems in sexually abused children in Korea, using structural equation modeling (SEM). Data were collected on 171 children (ages 6-13 years) referred to a public counseling center for sexual abuse in Seoul, Korea. Cumulative childhood traumas were defined on the basis of number of traumas (physical abuse, witnessing domestic violence, neglect, traumatic separation from parent, and sexual abuse) and the severity and duration of traumas. Children were evaluated by their parents on emotion regulation using the Emotion Regulation Checklist and internalizing and externalizing behavior problems using the Korean-Child Behavior Checklist. SEM analyses confirmed the complete mediation model, in which emotion dysregulation fully mediates the relationship between cumulative childhood traumas and internalizing/externalizing behavior problems. These findings indicate that emotion regulation is an important mechanism that can explain the negative effects of cumulative childhood traumas and that there is a need to focus on emotion regulation in sexually abused children exposed to cumulative trauma. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Modeling determinants of growth: evidence for a community-based target in height?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aßmann, Christian; Hermanussen, Michael

    2013-07-01

    Human growth is traditionally envisaged as a target-seeking process regulated by genes, nutrition, health, and the state of an individual's social and economic environment; it is believed that under optimal physical conditions, an individual will achieve his or her full genetic potential. Using a panel data set on individual height increments, we suggest a statistical modeling approach that characterizes growth as first-order trend stationary and allows for controlling individual growth tempo via observable measures of individual maturity. A Bayesian framework and corresponding Markov-chain Monte Carlo techniques allowing for a conceptually stringent treatment of missing values are adapted for parameter estimation. The model provides evidence for the adjustment of the individual growth rate toward average height of the population. The increase in adult body height during the past 150 y has been explained by the steady improvement of living conditions that are now being considered to have reached an optimum in Western societies. The current investigation questions the notion that the traditional concept in the understanding of this target-seeking process is sufficient. We consider an additional regulator that possibly points at community-based target seeking in growth.

  17. Casein Hydrolysate with Glycemic Control Properties: Evidence from Cells, Animal Models, and Humans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drummond, Elaine; Flynn, Sarah; Whelan, Helena; Nongonierma, Alice B; Holton, Thérèse A; Robinson, Aisling; Egan, Thelma; Cagney, Gerard; Shields, Denis C; Gibney, Eileen R; Newsholme, Philip; Gaudel, Celine; Jacquier, Jean-Christophe; Noronha, Nessa; FitzGerald, Richard J; Brennan, Lorraine

    2018-05-02

    Evidence exists to support the role of dairy derived proteins whey and casein in glycemic management. The objective of the present study was to use a cell screening method to identify a suitable casein hydrolysate and to examine its ability to impact glycemia related parameters in an animal model and in humans. Following screening for the ability to stimulate insulin secretion in pancreatic beta cells, a casein hydrolysate was selected and further studied in the ob/ob mouse model. An acute postprandial study was performed in 62 overweight and obese adults. Acute and long-term supplementation with the casein hydrolysate in in vivo studies in mice revealed a glucose lowering effect and a lipid reducing effect of the hydrolysate (43% reduction in overall liver fat). The postprandial human study revealed a significant increase in insulin secretion ( p = 0.04) concomitant with a reduction in glucose ( p = 0.03). The area under the curve for the change in glucose decreased from 181.84 ± 14.6 to 153.87 ± 13.02 ( p = 0.009). Overall, the data supports further work on the hydrolysate to develop into a functional food product.

  18. Adapting an evidence-based model to retain adolescent study participants in longitudinal research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Erin; Demby, Hilary; Jenner, Lynne Woodward; Gregory, Alethia; Broussard, Marsha

    2016-02-01

    Maintaining contact with and collecting outcome data from adolescent study participants can present a significant challenge for researchers conducting longitudinal studies. Establishing an organized and effective protocol for participant follow-up is crucial to reduce attrition and maintain high retention rates. This paper describes our methods in using and adapting the evidence-based Engagement, Verification, Maintenance, and Confirmation (EVMC) model to follow up with adolescents 6 and 12 months after implementation of a health program. It extends previous research by focusing on two key modifications to the model: (1) the central role of cell phones and texting to maintain contact with study participants throughout the EVMC process and, (2) use of responsive two-way communication between staff and participants and flexible administration modes and methods in the confirmation phase to ensure that busy teens not only respond to contacts, but also complete data collection. These strategies have resulted in high overall retention rates (87-91%) with adolescent study participants at each follow-up data collection point without the utilization of other, more involved tracking measures. The methods and findings presented may be valuable for other researchers with limited resources planning for or engaged in collecting follow-up outcome data from adolescents enrolled in longitudinal studies. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  19. A Standardized, Evidence-Based Massage Therapy Program for Decentralized Elite Paracyclists: Creating the Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kennedy, Ann B; Trilk, Jennifer L

    2015-09-01

    Evidence suggests that para-athletes are injured more often than able-bodied athletes. The benefits of massage therapy for these disabled athletes are yet to be explored. This paper documents the process followed for creating a massage program for elite paracycling athletes with the goal to assess effects on recovery, rest, performance, and quality of life both on and off the bike. Massage therapists' private practices throughout the United States. A United States Paracycling team consisting of 9 elite athletes: 2 spinal cord injury, 2 lower limb amputation, 1 upper limb amputation, 1 transverse myelitis, 1 stroke, 1 traumatic brain injury, and 1 visually impaired. The process used to develop a massage therapy program for para-cyclists included meetings with athletes, coaching staff, team exercise physiologist, and sports massage therapists; peer-reviewed literature was also consulted to address specific health conditions of para-athletes. Team leadership and athletes identified needs for quicker recovery, better rest, and improved performance in elite paracyclists. This information was used to generate a conceptual model for massage protocols, and led to creation of the intake and exit questionnaires to assess patient health status and recovery. Forms also were created for a general health intake, therapist information, and a therapist's SOAAP notes. The conceptual model and questionnaires developed herein will help to operationalize an exploratory study investigating the feasibility of implementing a standardized massage therapy program for a decentralized elite paracycling team.

  20. Testing Capital Asset Pricing Model: Empirical Evidences from Indian Equity Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kapil CHOUDHARY

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available The present study examines the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM for the Indian stock market using monthly stock returns from 278 companies of BSE 500 Index listed on the Bombay stock exchange for the period of January 1996 to December 2009. The findings of this study are not substantiating the theory’s basic result that higher risk (beta is associated with higher levels of return. The model does explain, however, excess returns and thus lends support to the linear structure of the CAPM equation. The theory’s prediction for the intercept is that it should equal zero and the slope should equal the excess returns on the market portfolio. The results of the study lead to negate the above hypotheses and offer evidence against the CAPM. The tests conducted to examine the nonlinearity of the relationship between return and betas bolster the hypothesis that the expected return-beta relationship is linear. Additionally, this study investigates whether the CAPM adequately captures all-important determinants of returns including the residual variance of stocks. The results exhibit that residual risk has no effect on the expected returns of portfolios.

  1. Geological evidence and sediment transport modelling for the 1946 and 1960 tsunamis in Shinmachi, Hilo, Hawaii

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chagué, Catherine; Sugawara, Daisuke; Goto, Kazuhisa; Goff, James; Dudley, Walter; Gadd, Patricia

    2018-02-01

    The Japanese community of Shinmachi, established on low-lying land between downtown Hilo and Waiakea, Hawaii, was obliterated by the 1946 Aleutian tsunami but was rebuilt, only to be destroyed again by the 1960 Chilean tsunami. The aim of this study was to find out if any geological evidence of these well documented events had been preserved in the sedimentary record in Wailoa River State Park, which replaced Shinmachi after the 1960 tsunami. This was achieved by collecting cores in the park and performing sedimentological, chronological and geochemical analyses, the latter also processed by principal component analysis. Sediment transport modelling was carried out for both tsunamis, to infer the source of the sediment and areas of deposition on land. The field survey revealed two distinct units within peat and soil, a thin lower unit composed of weathered basalt fragments within mud (Unit 1) and an upper unit dominated by fine volcanic sand within fine silt exhibiting subtle upward fining and coarsening (Unit 2, consisting of Unit 2A and Unit 2B), although these two anomalous units only occur on the western shore of Waiakea Mill Pond. Analysis with an ITRAX core scanner shows that Unit 1 is characterised by high Mn, Fe, Rb, La and Ce counts, combined with elevated magnetic susceptibility. Based on its chemical and sedimentological characteristics, Unit 1 is attributed to a flood event in Wailoa River that occurred around 1520-1660 CE, most probably as a result of a tropical storm. The sharp lower contact of Unit 2 coincides with the appearance of arsenic, contemporaneous with an increase in Ca, Sr, Si, Ti, K, Zr, Mn, Fe, La and Ce. In this study, As is used as a chronological and source material marker, as it is known to have been released into Wailoa River Estuary and Waiakea Mill Pond by the Canec factory between 1932 and 1963. Thus, not only the chemical and sedimentological evidence but also sediment transport modelling, corroborating the historical record

  2. Higher order net-proton number cumulants dependence on the centrality definition and other spurious effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sombun, S.; Steinheimer, J.; Herold, C.; Limphirat, A.; Yan, Y.; Bleicher, M.

    2018-02-01

    We study the dependence of the normalized moments of the net-proton multiplicity distributions on the definition of centrality in relativistic nuclear collisions at a beam energy of \\sqrt{{s}{NN}}=7.7 {GeV}. Using the ultra relativistic quantum molecular dynamics model as event generator we find that the centrality definition has a large effect on the extracted cumulant ratios. Furthermore we find that the finite efficiency for the determination of the centrality introduces an additional systematic uncertainty. Finally, we quantitatively investigate the effects of event-pile up and other possible spurious effects which may change the measured proton number. We find that pile-up alone is not sufficient to describe the data and show that a random double counting of events, adding significantly to the measured proton number, affects mainly the higher order cumulants in most central collisions.

  3. The impact of ergonomics intervention on trunk posture and cumulative compression load among carpet weavers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Afshari, Davood; Motamedzade, Majid; Salehi, Reza; Soltanian, Alir Raze

    2015-01-01

    Work-related musculoskeletal disorders of back among weavers are prevalent. Epidemiological studies have shown an association between poor working postures and back disorders among carpet weavers. Therefore, the present study aimed to evaluate the impact of the traditional (A) and ergonomically designed (B) workstations on trunk posture and cumulative compression load in carpet weavers. In this study, subtasks were identified in terms of stressful postures and carpet weaving process. Postural data were collected during knotting and compacting subtasks using inclinometer during four hours for each workstation. Postural data, weight and height of the weavers were entered into the University of Michigan three-dimensional static biomechanical model for estimation of the compression load and cumulative load were estimated from the resultant load and exposure time. Thirteen healthy carpet weavers (four males and nine females) participated in the study. Median trunk flexion angle was reduced with workstation B during knotting subtask (18° versus 8.5°, pergonomically designed workstation.

  4. Materials properties utilization in a cumulative mechanical damage function for LMFBR fuel pin failure analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jacobs, D.C.

    1977-01-01

    An overview is presented of one of the fuel-pin analysis techniques used in the CRBRP program, the cumulative mechanical damage function. This technique, as applied to LMFBR's, was developed along with the majority of models used to describe the mechanical properties and environmental behavior of the cladding (i.e., 20 percent cold-worked, 316 stainless steel). As it relates to fuel-pin analyses the Cumulative Mechanical Damage Function (CDF) continually monitors cladding integrity through steady state and transient operation; it is a time dependent function of temperature and stress which reflects the effects of both the prior mechanical history and the variations in mechanical properties caused by exposure to the reactor environment

  5. Cumulative (DisAdvantage and the Matthew Effect in Life-Course Analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miia Bask

    Full Text Available To foster a deeper understanding of the mechanisms behind inequality in society, it is crucial to work with well-defined concepts associated with such mechanisms. The aim of this paper is to define cumulative (disadvantage and the Matthew effect. We argue that cumulative (disadvantage is an intra-individual micro-level phenomenon, that the Matthew effect is an inter-individual macro-level phenomenon and that an appropriate measure of the Matthew effect focuses on the mechanism or dynamic process that generates inequality. The Matthew mechanism is, therefore, a better name for the phenomenon, where we provide a novel measure of the mechanism, including a proof-of-principle analysis using disposable personal income data. Finally, because socio-economic theory should be able to explain cumulative (disadvantage and the Matthew mechanism when they are detected in data, we discuss the types of models that may explain the phenomena. We argue that interactions-based models in the literature traditions of analytical sociology and statistical mechanics serve this purpose.

  6. The paca that roared: Immediate cumulative semantic interference among newly acquired words.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oppenheim, Gary M

    2018-08-01

    With 40,000 words in the average vocabulary, how can speakers find the specific words that they want so quickly and easily? Cumulative semantic interference in language production provides a clue: when naming a large series of pictures, with a few mammals sprinkled about, naming each subsequent mammal becomes slower and more error-prone. Such interference mirrors predictions from an incremental learning algorithm applied to meaning-driven retrieval from an established vocabulary, suggesting retrieval benefits from a constant, implicit, re-optimization process (Oppenheim et al., 2010). But how quickly would a new mammal (e.g. paca) engage in this re-optimization? In this experiment, 18 participants studied 3 novel and 3 familiar exemplars from each of six semantic categories, and immediately performed a timed picture-naming task. Consistent with the learning model's predictions, naming latencies revealed immediate cumulative semantic interference in all directions: from new words to new words, from new words to old words, from old words to new words, and from old words to old words. Repeating the procedure several days later produced similar-magnitude effects, demonstrating that newly acquired words can be immediately semantically integrated, at least to the extent necessary to produce typical cumulative semantic interference. These findings extend the Dark Side model's scope to include novel word production, and are considered in terms of mechanisms for lexical selection. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. A Practical Probabilistic Graphical Modeling Tool for Weighing Ecological Risk-Based Evidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Past weight-of-evidence frameworks for adverse ecological effects have provided soft-scoring procedures for judgments based on the quality and measured attributes of evidence. Here, we provide a flexible probabilistic structure for weighing and integrating lines of evidence for e...

  8. The ASM-NSF Biology Scholars Program: An Evidence-Based Model for Faculty Development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Amy L; Pribbenow, Christine M

    2016-05-01

    The American Society for Microbiology (ASM) established its ASM-NSF (National Science Foundation) Biology Scholars Program (BSP) to promote undergraduate education reform by 1) supporting biologists to implement evidence-based teaching practices, 2) engaging life science professional societies to facilitate biologists' leadership in scholarly teaching within the discipline, and 3) participating in a teaching community that fosters disciplinary-level science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) reform. Since 2005, the program has utilized year-long residency training to provide a continuum of learning and practice centered on principles from the scholarship of teaching and learning (SoTL) to more than 270 participants ("scholars") from biology and multiple other disciplines. Additionally, the program has recruited 11 life science professional societies to support faculty development in SoTL and discipline-based education research (DBER). To identify the BSP's long-term outcomes and impacts, ASM engaged an external evaluator to conduct a study of the program's 2010-2014 scholars (n = 127) and society partners. The study methods included online surveys, focus groups, participant observation, and analysis of various documents. Study participants indicate that the program achieved its proposed goals relative to scholarship, professional society impact, leadership, community, and faculty professional development. Although participants also identified barriers that hindered elements of their BSP participation, findings suggest that the program was essential to their development as faculty and provides evidence of the BSP as a model for other societies seeking to advance undergraduate science education reform. The BSP is the longest-standing faculty development program sponsored by a collective group of life science societies. This collaboration promotes success across a fragmented system of more than 80 societies representing the life sciences and helps

  9. The ASM-NSF Biology Scholars Program: An Evidence-Based Model for Faculty Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amy L. Chang

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available The American Society for Microbiology (ASM established its ASM-NSF (National Science Foundation Biology Scholars Program (BSP to promote undergraduate education reform by 1 supporting biologists to implement evidence-based teaching practices, 2 engaging life science professional societies to facilitate biologists’ leadership in scholarly teaching within the discipline, and 3 participating in a teaching community that fosters disciplinary-level science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM reform. Since 2005, the program has utilized year-long residency training to provide a continuum of learning and practice centered on principles from the scholarship of teaching and learning (SoTL to more than 270 participants (“scholars” from biology and multiple other disciplines. Additionally, the program has recruited 11 life science professional societies to support faculty development in SoTL and discipline-based education research (DBER. To identify the BSP’s long-term outcomes and impacts, ASM engaged an external evaluator to conduct a study of the program’s 2010­–2014 scholars (n = 127 and society partners. The study methods included online surveys, focus groups, participant observation, and analysis of various documents. Study participants indicate that the program achieved its proposed goals relative to scholarship, professional society impact, leadership, community, and faculty professional development. Although participants also identified barriers that hindered elements of their BSP participation, findings suggest that the program was essential to their development as faculty and provides evidence of the BSP as a model for other societies seeking to advance undergraduate science education reform. The BSP is the longest-standing faculty development program sponsored by a collective group of life science societies. This collaboration promotes success across a fragmented system of more than 80 societies representing the life

  10. Regulators as agents: Modelling personality and power as evidence is brokered to support decisions on environmental risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Davies, G.J. [Cranfield University, Centre for Environmental Risks and Futures, School of Applied Sciences, Cranfield MK43 0AL (United Kingdom); Kendall, G. [University of Nottingham, School of Computer Science, Nottingham NG8 1BB (United Kingdom); University of Nottingham Malaysia Campus, Jalan Broga, 43500 Semenyih, Selangor Darul Ehsan (Malaysia); Soane, E. [London School of Economics and Political Science, Department of Management, London WC2A 2AE (United Kingdom); Li, J. [University of Nottingham, School of Computer Science, Nottingham NG8 1BB (United Kingdom); Rocks, S.A.; Jude, S.R. [Cranfield University, Centre for Environmental Risks and Futures, School of Applied Sciences, Cranfield MK43 0AL (United Kingdom); Pollard, S.J.T., E-mail: s.pollard@cranfield.ac.uk [Cranfield University, Centre for Environmental Risks and Futures, School of Applied Sciences, Cranfield MK43 0AL (United Kingdom)

    2014-01-01

    Complex regulatory decisions about risk rely on the brokering of evidence between providers and recipients, and involve personality and power relationships that influence the confidence that recipients may place in the sufficiency of evidence and, therefore, the decision outcome. We explore these relationships in an agent-based model; drawing on concepts from environmental risk science, decision psychology and computer simulation. A two-agent model that accounts for the sufficiency of evidence is applied to decisions about salt intake, animal carcass disposal and radioactive waste. A dynamic version of the model assigned personality traits to agents, to explore their receptivity to evidence. Agents with ‘aggressor’ personality sets were most able to imbue fellow agents with enhanced receptivity (with ‘avoider’ personality sets less so) and clear confidence in the sufficiency of evidence. In a dynamic version of the model, when both recipient and provider were assigned the ‘aggressor’ personality set, this resulted in 10 successful evidence submissions in 71 days, compared with 96 days when both agents were assigned the ‘avoider’ personality set. These insights suggest implications for improving the efficiency and quality of regulatory decision making by understanding the role of personality and power. - Highlights: •The role of personality and power in regulatory decision-making is poorly represented. •We built a rudimentary two-agent model to explore environmental risk decisions. •Our two agent model accounted for decisions about the sufficiency of evidence. •We examined the influence personality and power has on confidence gained. •By giving agents personality we might predict the time taken to reach consensus.

  11. Regulators as agents: Modelling personality and power as evidence is brokered to support decisions on environmental risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Davies, G.J.; Kendall, G.; Soane, E.; Li, J.; Rocks, S.A.; Jude, S.R.; Pollard, S.J.T.

    2014-01-01

    Complex regulatory decisions about risk rely on the brokering of evidence between providers and recipients, and involve personality and power relationships that influence the confidence that recipients may place in the sufficiency of evidence and, therefore, the decision outcome. We explore these relationships in an agent-based model; drawing on concepts from environmental risk science, decision psychology and computer simulation. A two-agent model that accounts for the sufficiency of evidence is applied to decisions about salt intake, animal carcass disposal and radioactive waste. A dynamic version of the model assigned personality traits to agents, to explore their receptivity to evidence. Agents with ‘aggressor’ personality sets were most able to imbue fellow agents with enhanced receptivity (with ‘avoider’ personality sets less so) and clear confidence in the sufficiency of evidence. In a dynamic version of the model, when both recipient and provider were assigned the ‘aggressor’ personality set, this resulted in 10 successful evidence submissions in 71 days, compared with 96 days when both agents were assigned the ‘avoider’ personality set. These insights suggest implications for improving the efficiency and quality of regulatory decision making by understanding the role of personality and power. - Highlights: •The role of personality and power in regulatory decision-making is poorly represented. •We built a rudimentary two-agent model to explore environmental risk decisions. •Our two agent model accounted for decisions about the sufficiency of evidence. •We examined the influence personality and power has on confidence gained. •By giving agents personality we might predict the time taken to reach consensus

  12. Cumulative impacts: current research and current opinions at PSW

    Science.gov (United States)

    R. M. Rice

    1987-01-01

    Consideration of cumulative watershed effects (CWEs) has both political and physical aspects. Regardless of the practical usefulness of present methods of dealing with CWEs, the legal requirement to address them remains. Management of federal land is regulated by the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) and the Federal Water Pollution Control Act of 1972. The...

  13. Cumulative Risks of Foster Care Placement for Danish Children

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fallesen, Peter; Emanuel, Natalia; Wildeman, Christopher

    2014-01-01

    children. Our results also show some variations by parental ethnicity and sex, but these differences are small. Indeed, they appear quite muted relative to racial/ethnic differences in these risks in the United States. Last, though cumulative risks are similar between Danish and American children...

  14. Disintegration of a profiled shock wave at the cumulation point

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaliski, S.

    1978-01-01

    The disintegration at the cumulation point is analyzed of a shock wave generated with the aid of a profiled pressure. The quantitative relations are analyzed for the disintegration waves for typical compression parameters in systems of thermonuclear microfusion. The quantitative conclusions are drawn for the application of simplifying approximate calculations in problems of microfusion. (author)

  15. Steps and Pips in the History of the Cumulative Recorder

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lattal, Kennon A.

    2004-01-01

    From its inception in the 1930s until very recent times, the cumulative recorder was the most widely used measurement instrument in the experimental analysis of behavior. It was an essential instrument in the discovery and analysis of schedules of reinforcement, providing the first real-time analysis of operant response rates and patterns. This…

  16. The effects of cumulative practice on mathematics problem solving.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mayfield, Kristin H; Chase, Philip N

    2002-01-01

    This study compared three different methods of teaching five basic algebra rules to college students. All methods used the same procedures to teach the rules and included four 50-question review sessions interspersed among the training of the individual rules. The differences among methods involved the kinds of practice provided during the four review sessions. Participants who received cumulative practice answered 50 questions covering a mix of the rules learned prior to each review session. Participants who received a simple review answered 50 questions on one previously trained rule. Participants who received extra practice answered 50 extra questions on the rule they had just learned. Tests administered after each review included new questions for applying each rule (application items) and problems that required novel combinations of the rules (problem-solving items). On the final test, the cumulative group outscored the other groups on application and problem-solving items. In addition, the cumulative group solved the problem-solving items significantly faster than the other groups. These results suggest that cumulative practice of component skills is an effective method of training problem solving.

  17. Cumulative Beam Breakup with Time-Dependent Parameters

    CERN Document Server

    Delayen, J R

    2004-01-01

    A general analytical formalism developed recently for cumulative beam breakup (BBU) in linear accelerators with arbitrary beam current profile and misalignments [1] is extended to include time-dependent parameters such as energy chirp or rf focusing in order to reduce BBU-induced instabilities and emittance growth. Analytical results are presented and applied to practical accelerator configurations.

  18. On the mechanism of hadron cumulative production on nucleus

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Efremov, A.V.

    1976-01-01

    A mechanism of cumulative production of hadrons on nucleus is proposed which is similar to that of high perpendicular hadron production. The cross section obtained describes the main qualitative features of such prosesses, e.g., initial energy dependence atomic number behaviour, dependence on the rest mass of the produced particle and its production angle

  19. How to manage the cumulative flood safety of catchment dams ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Dam safety is a significant issue being taken seriously worldwide. However, in Australia, although much attention is being devoted to the medium- to large-scale dams, minimal attention is being paid to the serious potential problems associated with smaller dams, particularly the potential cumulative safety threats they pose ...

  20. Cumulative Beam Breakup due to Resistive-Wall Wake

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, J.-M.

    2004-01-01

    The cumulative beam breakup problem excited by the resistive-wall wake is formulated. An approximate analytic method of finding the asymptotic behavior for the transverse bunch displacement is developed and solved. Comparison between the asymptotic analytical expression and the direct numerical solution is presented. Good agreement is found. The criterion of using the asymptotic analytical expression is discussed

  1. Implications of applying cumulative risk assessment to the workplace.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fox, Mary A; Spicer, Kristen; Chosewood, L Casey; Susi, Pam; Johns, Douglas O; Dotson, G Scott

    2018-06-01

    Multiple changes are influencing work, workplaces and workers in the US including shifts in the main types of work and the rise of the 'gig' economy. Work and workplace changes have coincided with a decline in unions and associated advocacy for improved safety and health conditions. Risk assessment has been the primary method to inform occupational and environmental health policy and management for many types of hazards. Although often focused on one hazard at a time, risk assessment frameworks and methods have advanced toward cumulative risk assessment recognizing that exposure to a single chemical or non-chemical stressor rarely occurs in isolation. We explore how applying cumulative risk approaches may change the roles of workers and employers as they pursue improved health and safety and elucidate some of the challenges and opportunities that might arise. Application of cumulative risk assessment should result in better understanding of complex exposures and health risks with the potential to inform more effective controls and improved safety and health risk management overall. Roles and responsibilities of both employers and workers are anticipated to change with potential for a greater burden of responsibility on workers to address risk factors both inside and outside the workplace that affect health at work. A range of policies, guidance and training have helped develop cumulative risk assessment for the environmental health field and similar approaches are available to foster the practice in occupational safety and health. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. An Axiomatization of Cumulative Prospect Theory for Decision under Risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wakker, P.P.; Chateauneuf, A.

    1999-01-01

    Cumulative prospect theory was introduced by Tversky and Kahneman so as to combine the empirical realism of their original prospect theory with the theoretical advantages of Quiggin's rank-dependent utility. Preference axiomatizations were provided in several papers. All those axiomatizations,

  3. Cumulative assessment: does it improve students’ knowledge acquisition and retention?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cecilio Fernandes, Dario; Nagtegaal, Manouk; Noordzij, Gera; Tio, Rene

    2017-01-01

    Introduction Assessment for learning means changing students’ behaviour regarding their learning. Cumulative assessment has been shown to increase students’ self-study time and spread their study time throughout a course. However, there was no difference regarding students’ knowledge at the end of

  4. Are trans diagnostic models of eating disorders fit for purpose? A consideration of the evidence for food addiction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Treasure, Janet; Leslie, Monica; Chami, Rayane; Fernández-Aranda, Fernando

    2018-03-01

    Explanatory models for eating disorders have changed over time to account for changing clinical presentations. The transdiagnostic model evolved from the maintenance model, which provided the framework for cognitive behavioural therapy for bulimia nervosa. However, for many individuals (especially those at the extreme ends of the weight spectrum), this account does not fully fit. New evidence generated from research framed within the food addiction hypothesis is synthesized here into a model that can explain recurrent binge eating behaviour. New interventions that target core maintenance elements identified within the model may be useful additions to a complex model of treatment for eating disorders. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and Eating Disorders Association.

  5. An Ensemble Deep Convolutional Neural Network Model with Improved D-S Evidence Fusion for Bearing Fault Diagnosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Shaobo; Liu, Guokai; Tang, Xianghong; Lu, Jianguang; Hu, Jianjun

    2017-07-28

    Intelligent machine health monitoring and fault diagnosis are becoming increasingly important for modern manufacturing industries. Current fault diagnosis approaches mostly depend on expert-designed features for building prediction models. In this paper, we proposed IDSCNN, a novel bearing fault diagnosis algorithm based on ensemble deep convolutional neural networks and an improved Dempster-Shafer theory based evidence fusion. The convolutional neural networks take the root mean square (RMS) maps from the FFT (Fast Fourier Transformation) features of the vibration signals from two sensors as inputs. The improved D-S evidence theory is implemented via distance matrix from evidences and modified Gini Index. Extensive evaluations of the IDSCNN on the Case Western Reserve Dataset showed that our IDSCNN algorithm can achieve better fault diagnosis performance than existing machine learning methods by fusing complementary or conflicting evidences from different models and sensors and adapting to different load conditions.

  6. The challenges and opportunities in cumulative effects assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Foley, Melissa M., E-mail: mfoley@usgs.gov [U.S. Geological Survey, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center, 400 Natural Bridges, Dr., Santa Cruz, CA 95060 (United States); Center for Ocean Solutions, Stanford University, 99 Pacific St., Monterey, CA 93940 (United States); Mease, Lindley A., E-mail: lamease@stanford.edu [Center for Ocean Solutions, Stanford University, 473 Via Ortega, Stanford, CA 94305 (United States); Martone, Rebecca G., E-mail: rmartone@stanford.edu [Center for Ocean Solutions, Stanford University, 99 Pacific St., Monterey, CA 93940 (United States); Prahler, Erin E. [Center for Ocean Solutions, Stanford University, 473 Via Ortega, Stanford, CA 94305 (United States); Morrison, Tiffany H., E-mail: tiffany.morrison@jcu.edu.au [ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, QLD, 4811 (Australia); Murray, Cathryn Clarke, E-mail: cmurray@pices.int [WWF-Canada, 409 Granville Street, Suite 1588, Vancouver, BC V6C 1T2 (Canada); Wojcik, Deborah, E-mail: deb.wojcik@duke.edu [Nicholas School for the Environment, Duke University, 9 Circuit Dr., Durham, NC 27708 (United States)

    2017-01-15

    The cumulative effects of increasing human use of the ocean and coastal zone have contributed to a rapid decline in ocean and coastal resources. As a result, scientists are investigating how multiple, overlapping stressors accumulate in the environment and impact ecosystems. These investigations are the foundation for the development of new tools that account for and predict cumulative effects in order to more adequately prevent or mitigate negative effects. Despite scientific advances, legal requirements, and management guidance, those who conduct assessments—including resource managers, agency staff, and consultants—continue to struggle to thoroughly evaluate cumulative effects, particularly as part of the environmental assessment process. Even though 45 years have passed since the United States National Environmental Policy Act was enacted, which set a precedent for environmental assessment around the world, defining impacts, baseline, scale, and significance are still major challenges associated with assessing cumulative effects. In addition, we know little about how practitioners tackle these challenges or how assessment aligns with current scientific recommendations. To shed more light on these challenges and gaps, we undertook a comparative study on how cumulative effects assessment (CEA) is conducted by practitioners operating under some of the most well-developed environmental laws around the globe: California, USA; British Columbia, Canada; Queensland, Australia; and New Zealand. We found that practitioners used a broad and varied definition of impact for CEA, which led to differences in how baseline, scale, and significance were determined. We also found that practice and science are not closely aligned and, as such, we highlight opportunities for managers, policy makers, practitioners, and scientists to improve environmental assessment.

  7. The challenges and opportunities in cumulative effects assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Foley, Melissa M.; Mease, Lindley A.; Martone, Rebecca G.; Prahler, Erin E.; Morrison, Tiffany H.; Murray, Cathryn Clarke; Wojcik, Deborah

    2017-01-01

    The cumulative effects of increasing human use of the ocean and coastal zone have contributed to a rapid decline in ocean and coastal resources. As a result, scientists are investigating how multiple, overlapping stressors accumulate in the environment and impact ecosystems. These investigations are the foundation for the development of new tools that account for and predict cumulative effects in order to more adequately prevent or mitigate negative effects. Despite scientific advances, legal requirements, and management guidance, those who conduct assessments—including resource managers, agency staff, and consultants—continue to struggle to thoroughly evaluate cumulative effects, particularly as part of the environmental assessment process. Even though 45 years have passed since the United States National Environmental Policy Act was enacted, which set a precedent for environmental assessment around the world, defining impacts, baseline, scale, and significance are still major challenges associated with assessing cumulative effects. In addition, we know little about how practitioners tackle these challenges or how assessment aligns with current scientific recommendations. To shed more light on these challenges and gaps, we undertook a comparative study on how cumulative effects assessment (CEA) is conducted by practitioners operating under some of the most well-developed environmental laws around the globe: California, USA; British Columbia, Canada; Queensland, Australia; and New Zealand. We found that practitioners used a broad and varied definition of impact for CEA, which led to differences in how baseline, scale, and significance were determined. We also found that practice and science are not closely aligned and, as such, we highlight opportunities for managers, policy makers, practitioners, and scientists to improve environmental assessment.

  8. The challenges and opportunities in cumulative effects assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foley, Melissa M.; Mease, Lindley A; Martone, Rebecca G; Prahler, Erin E; Morrison, Tiffany H; Clarke Murray, Cathryn; Wojcik, Deborah

    2016-01-01

    The cumulative effects of increasing human use of the ocean and coastal zone have contributed to a rapid decline in ocean and coastal resources. As a result, scientists are investigating how multiple, overlapping stressors accumulate in the environment and impact ecosystems. These investigations are the foundation for the development of new tools that account for and predict cumulative effects in order to more adequately prevent or mitigate negative effects. Despite scientific advances, legal requirements, and management guidance, those who conduct assessments—including resource managers, agency staff, and consultants—continue to struggle to thoroughly evaluate cumulative effects, particularly as part of the environmental assessment process. Even though 45 years have passed since the United States National Environmental Policy Act was enacted, which set a precedent for environmental assessment around the world, defining impacts, baseline, scale, and significance are still major challenges associated with assessing cumulative effects. In addition, we know little about how practitioners tackle these challenges or how assessment aligns with current scientific recommendations. To shed more light on these challenges and gaps, we undertook a comparative study on how cumulative effects assessment (CEA) is conducted by practitioners operating under some of the most well-developed environmental laws around the globe: California, USA; British Columbia, Canada; Queensland, Australia; and New Zealand. We found that practitioners used a broad and varied definition of impact for CEA, which led to differences in how baseline, scale, and significance were determined. We also found that practice and science are not closely aligned and, as such, we highlight opportunities for managers, policy makers, practitioners, and scientists to improve environmental assessment.

  9. Measurement of four-particle cumulants and symmetric cumulants with subevent methods in small collision systems with the ATLAS detector

    CERN Document Server

    Derendarz, Dominik; The ATLAS collaboration

    2018-01-01

    Measurements of symmetric cumulants SC(n,m)=⟨v2nv2m⟩−⟨v2n⟩⟨v2m⟩ for (n,m)=(2,3) and (2,4) and asymmetric cumulant AC(n) are presented in pp, p+Pb and peripheral Pb+Pb collisions at various collision energies, aiming to probe the long-range collective nature of multi-particle production in small systems. Results are obtained using the standard cumulant method, as well as the two-subevent and three-subevent cumulant methods. Results from the standard method are found to be strongly biased by non-flow correlations as indicated by strong sensitivity to the chosen event class definition. A systematic reduction of non-flow effects is observed when using the two-subevent method and the results become independent of event class definition when the three-subevent method is used. The measured SC(n,m) shows an anti-correlation between v2 and v3, and a positive correlation between v2 and v4. The magnitude of SC(n,m) is constant with Nch in pp collisions, but increases with Nch in p+Pb and Pb+Pb collisions. ...

  10. Statistical Modeling of Extreme Values and Evidence of Presence of Dragon King (DK) in Solar Wind

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomes, T.; Ramos, F.; Rempel, E. L.; Silva, S.; C-L Chian, A.

    2017-12-01

    The solar wind constitutes a nonlinear dynamical system, presenting intermittent turbulence, multifractality and chaotic dynamics. One characteristic shared by many such complex systems is the presence of extreme events, that play an important role in several Geophysical phenomena and their statistical characterization is a problem of great practical relevance. This work investigates the presence of extreme events in time series of the modulus of the interplanetary magnetic field measured by Cluster spacecraft on February 2, 2002. One of the main results is that the solar wind near the Earth's bow shock can be modeled by the Generalized Pareto (GP) and Generalized Extreme Values (GEV) distributions. Both models present a statistically significant positive shape parameter which implyies a heavy tail in the probability distribution functions and an unbounded growth in return values as return periods become too long. There is evidence that current sheets are the main responsible for positive values of the shape parameter. It is also shown that magnetic reconnection at the interface between two interplanetary magnetic flux ropes in the solar wind can be considered as Dragon Kings (DK), a class of extreme events whose formation mechanisms are fundamentally different from others. As long as magnetic reconnection can be classified as a Dragon King, there is the possibility of its identification and even its prediction. Dragon kings had previously been identified in time series of financial crashes, nuclear power generation accidents, stock market and so on. It is believed that they are associated with the occurrence of extreme events in dynamical systems at phase transition, bifurcation, crises or tipping points.

  11. Estimation of 305 Day Milk Yield from Cumulative Monthly and Bimonthly Test Day Records in Indonesian Holstein Cattle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahayu, A. P.; Hartatik, T.; Purnomoadi, A.; Kurnianto, E.

    2018-02-01

    The aims of this study were to estimate 305 day first lactation milk yield of Indonesian Holstein cattle from cumulative monthly and bimonthly test day records and to analyze its accuracy.The first lactation records of 258 dairy cows from 2006 to 2014 consisted of 2571 monthly (MTDY) and 1281 bimonthly test day yield (BTDY) records were used. Milk yields were estimated by regression method. Correlation coefficients between actual and estimated milk yield by cumulative MTDY were 0.70, 0.78, 0.83, 0.86, 0.89, 0.92, 0.94 and 0.96 for 2-9 months, respectively, meanwhile by cumulative BTDY were 0.69, 0.81, 0.87 and 0.92 for 2, 4, 6 and 8 months, respectively. The accuracy of fitting regression models (R2) increased with the increasing in the number of cumulative test day used. The used of 5 cumulative MTDY was considered sufficient for estimating 305 day first lactation milk yield with 80.6% accuracy and 7% error percentage of estimation. The estimated milk yield from MTDY was more accurate than BTDY by 1.1 to 2% less error percentage in the same time.

  12. Cumulative organic anion transporter-mediated drug-drug interaction potential of multiple components in salvia miltiorrhiza (danshen) preparations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Li; Venitz, Jürgen; Sweet, Douglas H

    2014-12-01

    To evaluate organic anion transporter-mediated drug-drug interaction (DDI) potential for individual active components of Danshen (Salvia miltiorrhiza) vs. combinations using in vitro and in silico approaches. Inhibition profiles for single Danshen components and combinations were generated in stably-expressing human (h)OAT1 and hOAT3 cells. Plasma concentration-time profiles for compounds were estimated from in vivo human data using an i.v. two-compartment model (with first-order elimination). The cumulative DDI index was proposed as an indicator of DDI potential for combination products. This index was used to evaluate the DDI potential for Danshen injectables from 16 different manufacturers and 14 different lots from a single manufacturer. The cumulative DDI index predicted in vivo inhibition potentials, 82% (hOAT1) and 74% (hOAT3), comparable with those observed in vitro, 72 ± 7% (hOAT1) and 81 ± 10% (hOAT3), for Danshen component combinations. Using simulated unbound Cmax values, a wide range in cumulative DDI index between manufacturers, and between lots, was predicted. Many products exhibited a cumulative DDI index > 1 (50% inhibition). Danshen injectables will likely exhibit strong potential to inhibit hOAT1 and hOAT3 function in vivo. The proposed cumulative DDI index might improve prediction of DDI potential of herbal medicines or pharmaceutical preparations containing multiple components.

  13. Inhibition drives configural superiority of illusory Gestalt: Combined behavioral and drift-diffusion model evidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nie, Qi-Yang; Maurer, Mara; Müller, Hermann J; Conci, Markus

    2016-05-01

    Illusory Kanizsa figures demonstrate that a perceptually completed whole is more than the sum of its composite parts. In the current study, we explored part/whole relationships in object completion using the configural superiority effect (CSE) with illusory figures (Pomerantz & Portillo, 2011). In particular, we investigated to which extent the CSE is modulated by closure in target and distractor configurations. Our results demonstrated a typical CSE, with detection of a configural whole being more efficient than the detection of a corresponding part-level target. Moreover, the CSE was more pronounced when grouped objects were presented in distractors rather than in the target. A follow-up experiment systematically manipulated closure in whole target or, respectively, distractor configurations. The results revealed the effect of closure to be again stronger in distractor, rather than in target configurations, suggesting that closure primarily affects the inhibition of distractors, and to a lesser extent the selection of the target. In addition, a drift-diffusion model analysis of our data revealed that efficient distractor inhibition expedites the rate of evidence accumulation, with closure in distractors particularly speeding the drift toward the decision boundary. In sum, our findings demonstrate that the CSE in Kanizsa figures derives primarily from the inhibition of closed distractor objects, rather than being driven by a conspicuous target configuration. Altogether, these results support a fundamental role of inhibition in driving configural superiority effects in visual search. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. A Pause-then-Cancel model of stopping: evidence from basal ganglia neurophysiology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidt, Robert; Berke, Joshua D

    2017-04-19

    Many studies have implicated the basal ganglia in the suppression of action impulses ('stopping'). Here, we discuss recent neurophysiological evidence that distinct hypothesized processes involved in action preparation and cancellation can be mapped onto distinct basal ganglia cell types and pathways. We examine how movement-related activity in the striatum is related to a 'Go' process and how going may be modulated by brief epochs of beta oscillations. We then describe how, rather than a unitary 'Stop' process, there appear to be separate, complementary 'Pause' and 'Cancel' mechanisms. We discuss the implications of these stopping subprocesses for the interpretation of the stop-signal reaction time-in particular, some activity that seems too slow to causally contribute to stopping when assuming a single Stop processes may actually be fast enough under a Pause-then-Cancel model. Finally, we suggest that combining complementary neural mechanisms that emphasize speed or accuracy respectively may serve more generally to optimize speed-accuracy trade-offs.This article is part of the themed issue 'Movement suppression: brain mechanisms for stopping and stillness'. © 2017 The Author(s).

  15. [Neuropsychological models of autism spectrum disorders - behavioral evidence and functional imaging].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dziobek, Isabel; Bölte, Sven

    2011-03-01

    To review neuropsychological models of theory of mind (ToM), executive functions (EF), and central coherence (CC) as framework for cognitive abnormalities in autism spectrum disorders (ASD). Behavioral and functional imaging studies are described that assess social-cognitive, emotional, and executive functions as well as locally oriented perception in ASD. Impairments in ToM and EF as well as alterations in CC are frequently replicated phenomena in ASD. Especially problems concerning social perception and ToM have high explanatory value for clinical symptomatology. Brain activation patterns differ between individuals with and without ASD for ToM, EF, und CC functions. An approach focussing on reduced cortical connectivity seems to be increasingly favored over explanations focussing on single affected brain sites. A better understanding of the complexities of ASD in future research demands the integration of clinical, neuropsychological, functional imaging, and molecular genetics evidence. Weaknesses in ToM and EF as well as strengths in detail-focussed perception should be used for individual intervention planning.

  16. An extended model of electrons: experimental evidence from high-resolution scanning tunneling microscopy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hofer, Werner A

    2012-01-01

    In a recent paper we introduced a model of extended electrons, which is fully compatible with quantum mechanics in the formulation of Schrödinger. However, it contradicts the current interpretation of electrons as point-particles. Here, we show by a statistical analysis of high-resolution scanning tunneling microscopy (STM) experiments, that the interpretation of electrons as point particles and, consequently, the interpretation of the density of electron charge as a statistical quantity will lead to a conflict with the Heisenberg uncertainty principle. Given the precision in these experiments we find that the uncertainty principle would be violated by close to two orders of magnitude, if this interpretation were correct. We are thus forced to conclude that the density of electron charge is a physically real, i.e. in principle precisely measurable quantity, as derived in a recent paper. Experimental evidence to the contrary, in particular high-energy scattering experiments, is briefly discussed. The finding is expected to have wide implications in condensed matter physics, chemistry, and biology, scientific disciplines which are based on the properties and interactions of electrons.

  17. Shexiang Baoxin Pills for Coronary Heart Disease in Animal Models: Preclinical Evidence and Promoting Angiogenesis Mechanism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ke-Jian Zhang

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Shexiang Baoxin Pill (SBP originated from a classical TCM Fufang Suhexiang Pill for chest pain with dyspnea in the Southern Song Dynasty (1107–110 AD. Here, we aimed to evaluate preclinical evidence and possible mechanism of SBP for experimental coronary heart disease (CHD. Studies of SBP in animal models with CHD were identified from 6 databases until April 2016. Study quality for each included article was evaluated according to the CAMARADES 10-item checklist. Outcome measures were myocardial infarction area, vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF and microvessel count (MVC. All the data were analyzed by using RevMan 5.1 software. As a consequence, 25 studies with 439 animals were identified. The quality score of studies ranged from 2 to 5, with the median of 3.6. Meta-analysis of seven studies showed more significant effects of SBP on the reduction of the myocardial infarction area than the control (P < 0.01. Meta-analysis of eight studies showed significant effects of SBP for increasing VEGF expression compared with the control (P < 0.01. Meta-analysis of 10 studies indicated that SBP significantly improved MVC compared with the control (P < 0.01. In conclusion, these findings preliminarily demonstrated that SBP can reduce myocardial infarction area, exerting cardioprotective function largely through promoting angiogenesis.

  18. Capital productivity in industrialised economies: Evidence from error-correction model and lagrange multiplier tests

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Trofimov Ivan D.

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper re-examines the “stylized facts” of the balanced growth in developed economies, looking specifically at capital productivity variable. The economic data is obtained from European Commission AMECO database, spanning 1961-2014 period. For a sample of 22 OECD economies, the paper applies univariate LM unit root tests with one or two structural breaks, and estimates error-correction and linear trend models with breaks. It is shown that diverse statistical patterns were present across economies and overall mixed evidence is provided as to the stability of capital productivity and balanced growth in general. Specifically, both upward and downward trends in capital productivity were present, while in several economies mean reversion and random walk patterns were observed. The data and results were largely in line with major theoretical explanations pertaining to capital productivity. With regard to determinants of the capital productivity movements, the structure of capital stock and the prices of capital goods were likely most salient.

  19. Organizational transformation: a model for joint optimization of culture change and evidence-based design.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamilton, D Kirk; Orr, Robin Diane; Raboin, W Ellen

    2008-01-01

    Healthcare organizations face continuous and accelerating external change and thus must be prepared to manage their own change initiatives proactively. Given that many believe that the U.S. healthcare system is broken and most healthcare organizations are dealing with pervasive problems, some organizations may choose to seek transformational change to achieve the six aims identified by the Institute of Medicine: healthcare that is safe, effective, patient-centered, timely, efficient, and equitable. Transformational change will almost certainly involve organizational culture. Culture change may be most effective when linked to other organizational change initiatives such as organizational strategy, structure, policies, procedures, and recruiting. Significant organizational change often requires accompanying facility change. There is an interdependent relationship between facility design and organizational culture. They affect each other and both impact organizational performance. Sociotechnical theory promotes joint optimization of the social (culture) and technical (facilities) aspects of an organization to achieve sustained positive change. To achieve organizational transformation and to sustain positive change, organizations must be prepared to adopt collaborative efforts in culture change and facility design. The authors propose a model for accomplishing joint optimization of culture change and evidence-based facility design.

  20. Unconscious perception: a model-based approach to method and evidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Snodgrass, Michael; Bernat, Edward; Shevrin, Howard

    2004-07-01

    Unconscious perceptual effects remain controversial because it is hard to rule out alternative conscious perception explanations for them. We present a novel methodological framework, stressing the centrality of specifying the single-process conscious perception model (i.e., the null hypothesis). Various considerations, including those of SDT (Macmillan & Creelman, 1991), suggest that conscious perception functions hierarchically, in such a way that higher level effects (e.g., semantic priming) should not be possible without lower level discrimination (i.e., detection and identification). Relatedly, alternative conscious perception accounts (as well as the exhaustiveness, null sensitivity, and exclusiveness problems-Reingold & Merikle, 1988, 1990) predict positive relationships between direct and indirect measures. Contrariwise, our review suggests that negative and/or nonmonotonic relationships are found, providing strong evidence for unconscious perception and further suggesting that conscious and unconscious perceptual influences are functionally exclusive (cf. Jones, 1987), in such a way that the former typically override the latter when both are present. Consequently, unconscious perceptual effects manifest reliably only when conscious perception is completely absent, which occurs at the objective detection (but not identification) threshold.

  1. Framing Climate Goals in Terms of Cumulative CO2-Forcing-Equivalent Emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jenkins, S.; Millar, R. J.; Leach, N.; Allen, M. R.

    2018-03-01

    The relationship between cumulative CO2 emissions and CO2-induced warming is determined by the Transient Climate Response to Emissions (TCRE), but total anthropogenic warming also depends on non-CO2 forcing, complicating the interpretation of emissions budgets based on CO2 alone. An alternative is to frame emissions budgets in terms of CO2-forcing-equivalent (CO2-fe) emissions—the CO2 emissions that would yield a given total anthropogenic radiative forcing pathway. Unlike conventional "CO2-equivalent" emissions, these are directly related to warming by the TCRE and need to fall to zero to stabilize warming: hence, CO2-fe emissions generalize the concept of a cumulative carbon budget to multigas scenarios. Cumulative CO2-fe emissions from 1870 to 2015 inclusive are found to be 2,900 ± 600 GtCO2-fe, increasing at a rate of 67 ± 9.5 GtCO2-fe/yr. A TCRE range of 0.8-2.5°C per 1,000 GtC implies a total budget for 0.6°C of additional warming above the present decade of 880-2,750 GtCO2-fe, with 1,290 GtCO2-fe implied by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 median response, corresponding to 19 years' CO2-fe emissions at the current rate.

  2. Childhood cumulative risk and obesity: the mediating role of self-regulatory ability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Gary W; Fuller-Rowell, Thomas E; Doan, Stacey N

    2012-01-01

    We tested whether early childhood risk exposures are related to weight gain in adolescence and evaluate an underlying mechanism, self-regulatory behavior, for the risk-obesity link. Cumulative risk exposure to 9 sociodemographic (eg, poverty), physical (eg, substandard housing), and psychosocial (eg, family turmoil) stressors was assessed in 244 nine-year-old children. BMI was calculated at age 9 and then 4 years later. At age 9, children's ability to delay gratification as an index of self-regulatory behavior was assessed. Path analyses were then estimated to evaluate our mediational model (Cumulative risk → Self-regulation → BMI) over a 4-year period in a prospective, longitudinal design. Nine-year-old children exposed to a greater accumulation of multiple risk factors show larger gains in adiposity over the next four year period, net of their initial BMI. These gains in BMI during early adolescence are largely accounted for by deteriorated self-regulatory abilities among children facing more cumulative risks. Early childhood risk exposure leads to larger gains in BMI in adolescence. Given the importance of childhood adiposity to the development of obesity later in life, understanding the underlying mechanisms that link early experience to weight gain is an essential task. Deficiencies in self-regulation in response to chronic stress appears to be an important agent in the obesity epidemic.

  3. Non-Gaussian wave packet dynamics in anharmonic potential: Cumulant expansion treatment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Toutounji, Mohamad

    2015-01-01

    This manuscript utilizes cumulant expansion as an alternative algebraic approach to evaluating integrals and solving a system of nonlinear differential equations for probing anharmonic dynamics in condensed phase systems using Morse oscillator. These integrals and differential equations become harder to solve as the anharmonicity of the system goes beyond that of Morse oscillator description. This algebraic approach becomes critically important in case of Morse oscillator as it tends to exhibit divergent dynamics and numerical uncertainties at low temperatures. The autocorrelation function is calculated algebraically and compared to the exact one for they match perfectly. It is also compared to the approximate autocorrelation function using the differential equations technique reported in Toutounji (2014) for weak and strong electron–phonon coupling cases. It is found that the present cumulant method is more efficient, and easier to use, than the exact expression. Deviation between the approximate autocorrelation function and the exact autocorrelation function starts to arise as the electron–phonon coupling strength increases. The autocorrelation function obtained using cumulants identically matches the exact autocorrelation function, thereby surpassing the approach presented in Toutounji (2014). The advantage of the present methodology is its applicability to various types of electron–phonon coupling cases. Additionally, the herein approach only uses algebraic techniques, thereby avoiding both the divergence integral and solving a set of linear first- and second-order partial differential equations as was done in previous work. Model calculations are presented to demonstrate the accuracy of the herein work

  4. Cumulative health risk assessment: integrated approaches for multiple contaminants, exposures, and effects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rice, Glenn; Teuschler, Linda; MacDonel, Margaret; Butler, Jim; Finster, Molly; Hertzberg, Rick; Harou, Lynne

    2007-01-01

    Available in abstract form only. Full text of publication follows: As information about environmental contamination has increased in recent years, so has public interest in the combined effects of multiple contaminants. This interest has been highlighted by recent tragedies such as the World Trade Center disaster and hurricane Katrina. In fact, assessing multiple contaminants, exposures, and effects has long been an issue for contaminated sites, including U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) legacy waste sites. Local citizens have explicitly asked the federal government to account for cumulative risks, with contaminants moving offsite via groundwater flow, surface runoff, and air dispersal being a common emphasis. Multiple exposures range from ingestion and inhalation to dermal absorption and external gamma irradiation. Three types of concerns can lead to cumulative assessments: (1) specific sources or releases - e.g., industrial facilities or accidental discharges; (2) contaminant levels - in environmental media or human tissues; and (3) elevated rates of disease - e.g., asthma or cancer. The specific initiator frames the assessment strategy, including a determination of appropriate models to be used. Approaches are being developed to better integrate a variety of data, extending from environmental to internal co-location of contaminants and combined effects, to support more practical assessments of cumulative health risks. (authors)

  5. Validity of the cumulant method for a pulse nonlinear Kerr oscillator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grygiel, K.; Leonski, W.; Szlachetka, P.

    1998-01-01

    We study the dynamics of an anharmonic oscillator driven by a train of pulses. The cumulant expansion and quantum evolution operator approaches are presented and compared. The modifications introduced by quantum mechanics into the dynamics of classical systems which manifest chaos are a problem of great importance. It is known that quantization modifies the dynamics of classical system is usually studied by means of the equation for the Wigner function derived from the quantum Liouville equation. In Wigner's formulation of quantum mechanics we treat a quantum system in a 'classical way' including all their quantum features. And what is more, we can contrast the quantum and classical dynamics within the framework of one formalism. The problem is, that the equations for the Wigner functions are mathematically cumbersome and their analytic solutions for most nonlinear systems are unknown. However, instead of the equation for the Wigner function we can use the set of equations for statistical moments generated by our equation for the Wigner function. It is obvious that in this approach a quantum system is governed by an infinite set of equations. Therefore, for numerical reasons the set of equations for statistical moments has to be truncated at a finite number, which means approximating it. It is known that first cumulant approximation represents the classical dynamics. The second cumulant approximation adds the first quantum corrections to the classical dynamics. In this paper we compare some aspects of the cumulant method and the method used by Leonski and Tanas to study an anharmonic oscillator driven by a train of pulses. The Kerr oscillator model is the same ad that is discussed in an earlier paper albeit without the damping mechanism

  6. Evaluation of cumulative PCB exposure estimated by a job exposure matrix versus PCB serum concentrations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruder, Avima M.; Succop, Paul; Waters, Martha A.

    2015-01-01

    Although polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) have been banned in many countries for more than three decades, exposures to PCBs continue to be of concern due to their long half-lives and carcinogenic effects. In National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health studies, we are using semiquantitative plant-specific job exposure matrices (JEMs) to estimate historical PCB exposures for workers (n=24,865) exposed to PCBs from 1938 to 1978 at three capacitor manufacturing plants. A subcohort of these workers (n=410) employed in two of these plants had serum PCB concentrations measured at up to four times between 1976 and 1989. Our objectives were to evaluate the strength of association between an individual worker’s measured serum PCB levels and the same worker’s cumulative exposure estimated through 1977 with the (1) JEM and (2) duration of employment, and to calculate the explained variance the JEM provides for serum PCB levels using (3) simple linear regression. Consistent strong and statistically significant associations were observed between the cumulative exposures estimated with the JEM and serum PCB concentrations for all years. The strength of association between duration of employment and serum PCBs was good for highly chlorinated (Aroclor 1254/HPCB) but not less chlorinated (Aroclor 1242/LPCB) PCBs. In the simple regression models, cumulative occupational exposure estimated using the JEMs explained 14–24 % of the variance of the Aroclor 1242/LPCB and 22–39 % for Aroclor 1254/HPCB serum concentrations. We regard the cumulative exposure estimated with the JEM as a better estimate of PCB body burdens than serum concentrations quantified as Aroclor 1242/LPCB and Aroclor 1254/HPCB. PMID:23475397

  7. Bridging the gap between evidence and policy for infectious diseases: How models can aid public health decision-making

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gwenan M. Knight

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The dominant approach to decision-making in public health policy for infectious diseases relies heavily on expert opinion, which often applies empirical evidence to policy questions in a manner that is neither systematic nor transparent. Although systematic reviews are frequently commissioned to inform specific components of policy (such as efficacy, the same process is rarely applied to the full decision-making process. Mathematical models provide a mechanism through which empirical evidence can be methodically and transparently integrated to address such questions. However, such models are often considered difficult to interpret. In addition, models provide estimates that need to be iteratively re-evaluated as new data or considerations arise. Using the case study of a novel diagnostic for tuberculosis, a framework for improved collaboration between public health decision-makers and mathematical modellers that could lead to more transparent and evidence-driven policy decisions for infectious diseases in the future is proposed. The framework proposes that policymakers should establish long-term collaborations with modellers to address key questions, and that modellers should strive to provide clear explanations of the uncertainty of model structure and outputs. Doing so will improve the applicability of models and clarify their limitations when used to inform real-world public health policy decisions.

  8. Cumulative occupational lumbar load and lumbar disc disease – results of a German multi-center case-control study (EPILIFT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michaelis Martina

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The to date evidence for a dose-response relationship between physical workload and the development of lumbar disc diseases is limited. We therefore investigated the possible etiologic relevance of cumulative occupational lumbar load to lumbar disc diseases in a multi-center case-control study. Methods In four study regions in Germany (Frankfurt/Main, Freiburg, Halle/Saale, Regensburg, patients seeking medical care for pain associated with clinically and radiologically verified lumbar disc herniation (286 males, 278 females or symptomatic lumbar disc narrowing (145 males, 206 females were prospectively recruited. Population control subjects (453 males and 448 females were drawn from the regional population registers. Cases and control subjects were between 25 and 70 years of age. In a structured personal interview, a complete occupational history was elicited to identify subjects with certain minimum workloads. On the basis of job task-specific supplementary surveys performed by technical experts, the situational lumbar load represented by the compressive force at the lumbosacral disc was determined via biomechanical model calculations for any working situation with object handling and load-intensive postures during the total working life. For this analysis, all manual handling of objects of about 5 kilograms or more and postures with trunk inclination of 20 degrees or more are included in the calculation of cumulative lumbar load. Confounder selection was based on biologic plausibility and on the change-in-estimate criterion. Odds ratios (OR and 95% confidence intervals (CI were calculated separately for men and women using unconditional logistic regression analysis, adjusted for age, region, and unemployment as major life event (in males or psychosocial strain at work (in females, respectively. To further elucidate the contribution of past physical workload to the development of lumbar disc diseases, we performed lag

  9. An evidence-based approach to case management model selection for an acute care facility: is there really a preferred model?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terra, Sandra M

    2007-01-01

    This research seeks to determine whether there is adequate evidence-based justification for selection of one acute care case management model over another. Acute Inpatient Hospital. This article presents a systematic review of published case management literature, resulting in classification specific to terms of level of evidence. This review examines the best available evidence in an effort to select an acute care case management model. Although no single case management model can be identified as preferred, it is clear that adequate evidence-based literature exists to acknowledge key factors driving the acute care model and to form a foundation for the efficacy of hospital case management practice. Although no single case management model can be identified as preferred, this systematic review demonstrates that adequate evidence-based literature exists to acknowledge key factors driving the acute care model and forming a foundation for the efficacy of hospital case management practice. Distinctive aspects of case management frameworks can be used to guide the development of an acute care case management model. The study illustrates: * The effectiveness of case management when there is direct patient contact by the case manager regardless of disease condition: not only does the quality of care increase but also length of stay (LOS) decreases, care is defragmented, and both patient and physician satisfaction can increase. * The preferred case management models result in measurable outcomes that can directly relate to, and demonstrate alignment with, organizational strategy. * Acute care management programs reduce cost and LOS, and improve outcomes. * An integrated case management program that includes social workers, as well as nursing, is the most effective acute care management model. * The successful case management model will recognize physicians, as well as patients, as valued customers with whom partnership can positively affect financial outcomes in terms of

  10. Cumulants of heat transfer across nonlinear quantum systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Huanan; Agarwalla, Bijay Kumar; Li, Baowen; Wang, Jian-Sheng

    2013-12-01

    We consider thermal conduction across a general nonlinear phononic junction. Based on two-time observation protocol and the nonequilibrium Green's function method, heat transfer in steady-state regimes is studied, and practical formulas for the calculation of the cumulant generating function are obtained. As an application, the general formalism is used to study anharmonic effects on fluctuation of steady-state heat transfer across a single-site junction with a quartic nonlinear on-site pinning potential. An explicit nonlinear modification to the cumulant generating function exact up to the first order is given, in which the Gallavotti-Cohen fluctuation symmetry is found still valid. Numerically a self-consistent procedure is introduced, which works well for strong nonlinearity.

  11. Fragmentation of tensor polarized deuterons into cumulative pions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Afanas'ev, S.; Arkhipov, V.; Bondarev, V.

    1998-01-01

    The tensor analyzing power T 20 of the reaction d polarized + A → π - (0 0 ) + X has been measured in the fragmentation of 9 GeV tensor polarized deuterons into pions with momenta from 3.5 to 5.3 GeV/c on hydrogen, beryllium and carbon targets. This kinematic range corresponds to the region of cumulative hadron production with the cumulative variable x c from 1.08 to 1.76. The values of T 20 have been found to be small and consistent with positive values. This contradicts the predictions based on a direct mechanism assuming NN collision between a high momentum nucleon in the deuteron and a target nucleon (NN → NNπ)

  12. Experience of cumulative effects assessment in the UK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Piper Jake

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Cumulative effects assessment (CEA is a development of environmental impact assessment which attempts to take into account the wider picture of what impacts may affect the environment as a result of either multiple or linear projects, or development plans. CEA is seen as a further valuable tool in promoting sustainable development. The broader canvas upon which the assessment is made leads to a suite of issues such as complexity in methods and assessment of significance, the desirability of co-operation between developers and other parties, new ways of addressing mitigation and monitoring. After outlining the legislative position and the process of CEA, this paper looks at three cases studies in the UK where cumulative assessment has been carried out - the cases concern wind farms, major infrastructure and off-shore developments.

  13. Polarization in high Psub(trans) and cumulative hadron production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Efremov, A.V.

    1978-01-01

    The final hadron polarization in the high Psub(trans) processes is analyzed in the parton hard scattering picture. Scaling assumption allows a correct qualitative description to be given for the Psub(trans)-behaviour of polarization or escape angle behaviour in cumulative production. The energy scaling and weak dependence on the beam and target type is predicted. A method is proposed for measuring the polarization of hadron jets

  14. Firm heterogeneity, Rules of Origin and Rules of Cumulation

    OpenAIRE

    Bombarda , Pamela; Gamberoni , Elisa

    2013-01-01

    We analyse the impact of relaxing rules of origin (ROOs) in a simple setting with heterogeneous firms that buy intermediate inputs from domestic and foreign sources. In particular, we consider the impact of switching from bilateral to diagonal cumulation when using preferences (instead of paying the MFN tariff) involving the respect of rules of origin. We find that relaxing the restrictiveness of the ROOs leads the least productive exporters to stop exporting. The empirical part confirms thes...

  15. Cumulant approach to dynamical correlation functions at finite temperatures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tran Minhtien.

    1993-11-01

    A new theoretical approach, based on the introduction of cumulants, to calculate thermodynamic averages and dynamical correlation functions at finite temperatures is developed. The method is formulated in Liouville instead of Hilbert space and can be applied to operators which do not require to satisfy fermion or boson commutation relations. The application of the partitioning and projection methods for the dynamical correlation functions is discussed. The present method can be applied to weakly as well as to strongly correlated systems. (author). 9 refs

  16. Science and Societal Partnerships to Address Cumulative Impacts

    OpenAIRE

    Lundquist, Carolyn J.; Fisher, Karen T.; Le Heron, Richard; Lewis, Nick I.; Ellis, Joanne I.; Hewitt, Judi E.; Greenaway, Alison J.; Cartner, Katie J.; Burgess-Jones, Tracey C.; Schiel, David R.; Thrush, Simon F.

    2016-01-01

    Funding and priorities for ocean research are not separate from the underlying sociological, economic, and political landscapes that determine values attributed to ecological systems. Here we present a variation on science prioritization exercises, focussing on inter-disciplinary research questions with the objective of shifting broad scale management practices to better address cumulative impacts and multiple users. Marine scientists in New Zealand from a broad range of scientific and social...

  17. Cumulative prospect theory and mean variance analysis. A rigorous comparison

    OpenAIRE

    Hens, Thorsten; Mayer, Janos

    2012-01-01

    We compare asset allocations derived for cumulative prospect theory(CPT) based on two different methods: Maximizing CPT along the mean–variance efficient frontier and maximizing it without that restriction. We find that with normally distributed returns the difference is negligible. However, using standard asset allocation data of pension funds the difference is considerable. Moreover, with derivatives like call options the restriction to the mean-variance efficient frontier results in a siza...

  18. Signal anomaly detection using modified CUSUM [cumulative sum] method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morgenstern, V.; Upadhyaya, B.R.; Benedetti, M.

    1988-01-01

    An important aspect of detection of anomalies in signals is the identification of changes in signal behavior caused by noise, jumps, changes in band-width, sudden pulses and signal bias. A methodology is developed to identify, isolate and characterize these anomalies using a modification of the cumulative sum (CUSUM) approach. The new algorithm performs anomaly detection at three levels and is implemented on a general purpose computer. 7 refs., 4 figs

  19. Cumulative Risk Assessment Toolbox: Methods and Approaches for the Practitioner

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Margaret M. MacDonell

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The historical approach to assessing health risks of environmental chemicals has been to evaluate them one at a time. In fact, we are exposed every day to a wide variety of chemicals and are increasingly aware of potential health implications. Although considerable progress has been made in the science underlying risk assessments for real-world exposures, implementation has lagged because many practitioners are unaware of methods and tools available to support these analyses. To address this issue, the US Environmental Protection Agency developed a toolbox of cumulative risk resources for contaminated sites, as part of a resource document that was published in 2007. This paper highlights information for nearly 80 resources from the toolbox and provides selected updates, with practical notes for cumulative risk applications. Resources are organized according to the main elements of the assessment process: (1 planning, scoping, and problem formulation; (2 environmental fate and transport; (3 exposure analysis extending to human factors; (4 toxicity analysis; and (5 risk and uncertainty characterization, including presentation of results. In addition to providing online access, plans for the toolbox include addressing nonchemical stressors and applications beyond contaminated sites and further strengthening resource accessibility to support evolving analyses for cumulative risk and sustainable communities.

  20. Stakeholder attitudes towards cumulative and aggregate exposure assessment of pesticides.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verbeke, Wim; Van Loo, Ellen J; Vanhonacker, Filiep; Delcour, Ilse; Spanoghe, Pieter; van Klaveren, Jacob D

    2015-05-01

    This study evaluates the attitudes and perspectives of different stakeholder groups (agricultural producers, pesticide manufacturers, trading companies, retailers, regulators, food safety authorities, scientists and NGOs) towards the concepts of cumulative and aggregate exposure assessment of pesticides by means of qualitative in-depth interviews (n = 15) and a quantitative stakeholder survey (n = 65). The stakeholders involved generally agreed that the use of chemical pesticides is needed, primarily for meeting the need of feeding the growing world population, while clearly acknowledging the problematic nature of human exposure to pesticide residues. Current monitoring was generally perceived to be adequate, but the timeliness and consistency of monitoring practices across countries were questioned. The concept of cumulative exposure assessment was better understood by stakeholders than the concept of aggregate exposure assessment. Identified pitfalls were data availability, data limitations, sources and ways of dealing with uncertainties, as well as information and training needs. Regulators and food safety authorities were perceived as the stakeholder groups for whom cumulative and aggregate pesticide exposure assessment methods and tools would be most useful and acceptable. Insights obtained from this exploratory study have been integrated in the development of targeted and stakeholder-tailored dissemination and training programmes that were implemented within the EU-FP7 project ACROPOLIS. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. A conflict-based model of color categorical perception: evidence from a priming study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Zhonghua; Hanley, J Richard; Zhang, Ruiling; Liu, Qiang; Roberson, Debi

    2014-10-01

    Categorical perception (CP) of color manifests as faster or more accurate discrimination of two shades of color that straddle a category boundary (e.g., one blue and one green) than of two shades from within the same category (e.g., two different shades of green), even when the differences between the pairs of colors are equated according to some objective metric. The results of two experiments provide new evidence for a conflict-based account of this effect, in which CP is caused by competition between visual and verbal/categorical codes on within-category trials. According to this view, conflict arises because the verbal code indicates that the two colors are the same, whereas the visual code indicates that they are different. In Experiment 1, two shades from the same color category were discriminated significantly faster when the previous trial also comprised a pair of within-category colors than when the previous trial comprised a pair from two different color categories. Under the former circumstances, the CP effect disappeared. According to the conflict-based model, response conflict between visual and categorical codes during discrimination of within-category pairs produced an adjustment of cognitive control that reduced the weight given to the categorical code relative to the visual code on the subsequent trial. Consequently, responses on within-category trials were facilitated, and CP effects were reduced. The effectiveness of this conflict-based account was evaluated in comparison with an alternative view that CP reflects temporary warping of perceptual space at the boundaries between color categories.

  2. Evidence that non-dreamers do dream: a REM sleep behaviour disorder model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herlin, Bastien; Leu-Semenescu, Smaranda; Chaumereuil, Charlotte; Arnulf, Isabelle

    2015-12-01

    To determine whether non-dreamers do not produce dreams or do not recall them, subjects were identified with no dream recall with dreamlike behaviours during rapid eye movement sleep behaviour disorder, which is typically characterised by dream-enacting behaviours congruent with sleep mentation. All consecutive patients with idiopathic rapid eye movement sleep behaviour disorder or rapid eye movement sleep behaviour disorder associated with Parkinson's disease who underwent a video-polysomnography were interviewed regarding the presence or absence of dream recall, retrospectively or upon spontaneous arousals. The patients with no dream recall for at least 10 years, and never-ever recallers were compared with dream recallers with rapid eye movement sleep behaviour disorder regarding their clinical, cognitive and sleep features. Of the 289 patients with rapid eye movement sleep behaviour disorder, eight (2.8%) patients had no dream recall, including four (1.4%) patients who had never ever recalled dreams, and four patients who had no dream recall for 10-56 years. All non-recallers exhibited, daily or almost nightly, several complex, scenic and dreamlike behaviours and speeches, which were also observed during rapid eye movement sleep on video-polysomnography (arguing, fighting and speaking). They did not recall a dream following sudden awakenings from rapid eye movement sleep. These eight non-recallers with rapid eye movement sleep behaviour disorder did not differ in terms of cognition, clinical, treatment or sleep measures from the 17 dreamers with rapid eye movement sleep behaviour disorder matched for age, sex and disease. The scenic dreamlike behaviours reported and observed during rapid eye movement sleep in the rare non-recallers with rapid eye movement sleep behaviour disorder (even in the never-ever recallers) provide strong evidence that non-recallers produce dreams, but do not recall them. Rapid eye movement sleep behaviour disorder provides a new model to

  3. A MACROPRUDENTIAL SUPERVISION MODEL. EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPEAN BANKING SYSTEM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Trenca Ioan

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available One of the positive effects of the financial crises is the increasing concern of the supervisors regarding the financial system’s stability. There is a need to strengthen the links between different financial components of the financial system and the macroeconomic environment. Banking systems that have an adequate capitalization and liquidity level may face easier economic and financial shocks. The purpose of this empirical study is to identify the main determinants of the banking system’s stability and soundness in the Central and Eastern Europe countries. We asses the impact of different macroeconomic variables on the quality of capital and liquidity conditions and examine the behaviour of these financial stability indicators, by analyzing a sample of 10 banking systems during 2000-2011. The availability of banking capital signals the banking system’s resiliency to shocks. Capital adequacy ratio is the main indicator used to assess the banking fragility. One of the causes of the 2008-2009 financial crisis was the lack of liquidity in the banking system which led to the collapse of several banking institutions and macroeconomic imbalances. Given the importance of liquidity for the banking system, we propose several models in order to determine the macroeconomic variables that have a significant influence on the liquid reserves to total assets ratio. We found evidence that GDP growth, inflation, domestic credit to private sector, as well as the money and quasi money aggregate indicator have significant impact on the banking stability. The empirical regression confirms the high level of interdependence of the real sector with the financial-banking sector. Also, they prove the necessity for an effective macro prudential supervision at country level which enables the supervisory authorities to have an adequate control over the macro prudential indicators and to take appropriate decisions at the right time.

  4. Early Start Denver Model. Un modello Evidence Based per l’intervento educativo precoce nei Disturbi dello Spettro Autistico

    OpenAIRE

    Saverio Fontani

    2016-01-01

    The Autism Spectrum Disorders represents one of the most complex developmental disabilities for the massive deficit of communication competences. The social disability related to disorders is the main objective of the intervention of the Early Start Denver Model – ESDM (Rogers & Dawson, 2010), which can be considered as one of the most advanced models for early educational intervention according the perspective of Evidence Based Education. In this paper the theoretical foundations of the ...

  5. Sex determination in the haplodiploid wasp Nasonia vitripennis (Hymenoptera Chalcidoidea) : A critical consideration of models and evidence

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beukeboom, Leo W.; Kamping, Albert; van de Zande, Louis

    Sex determining mechanisms are highly diverse. Like all Hymenoptera, the parasitic wasp Nasonia vitripennis reproduces by haplodiploidy: males are haploid and females are diploid. Sex in Nasonia is not determined by complementary alleles at sex loci. Evidence for several alternative models is

  6. Beyond ROC Curvature: Strength Effects and Response Time Data Support Continuous-Evidence Models of Recognition Memory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dube, Chad; Starns, Jeffrey J.; Rotello, Caren M.; Ratcliff, Roger

    2012-01-01

    A classic question in the recognition memory literature is whether retrieval is best described as a continuous-evidence process consistent with signal detection theory (SDT), or a threshold process consistent with many multinomial processing tree (MPT) models. Because receiver operating characteristics (ROCs) based on confidence ratings are…

  7. Using the Dynamic Model to develop an evidence-based and theory-driven approach to school improvement

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Creemers, B.P.M.; Kyriakides, L.

    2010-01-01

    This paper refers to a dynamic perspective of educational effectiveness and improvement stressing the importance of using an evidence-based and theory-driven approach. Specifically, an approach to school improvement based on the dynamic model of educational effectiveness is offered. The recommended

  8. Evidence for Ancestral Programming of Resilience in a Two-Hit Stress Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jamshid Faraji

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available In a continuously stressful environment, the effects of recurrent prenatal stress (PS may accumulate across generations and alter stress vulnerability and resilience. Here, we report in female rats that a family history of recurrent ancestral PS facilitates certain aspects of movement performance, and that these benefits are abolished by the experience of a second hit, induced by a silent ischemia during adulthood. Female F4-generation rats with and without a family history of cumulative multigenerational PS (MPS were tested for skilled motor function before and after the induction of a minor ischemic insult by endothelin-1 infusion into the primary motor cortex. MPS resulted in improved skilled motor abilities and blunted hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA axis function compared to non-stressed rats. Deep sequencing revealed downregulation of miR-708 in MPS rats along with upregulation of its predicted target genes Mapk10 and Rasd2. Through miR-708 stress may regulate mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK pathway activity. Hair trace elemental analysis revealed an increased Na/K ratio, which suggests a chronic shift in adrenal gland function. The ischemic lesion activated the HPA axis in MPS rats only; the lesion, however, abolished the advantage of MPS in skilled reaching. The findings indicate that MPS generates adaptive flexibility in movement, which is challenged by a second stressor, such as a neuropathological condition. Thus, a second “hit” by a stressor may limit behavioral flexibility and neural plasticity associated with ancestral stress.

  9. Formulaic language in cortical and subcortical disease: Evidence of the dual process model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kelly Bridges

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: It is known that an intact cortical left hemisphere is crucial for language production. Recently, more credit is given to the right hemisphere and subcortical areas in the production of non-novel language, including formulaic language. John Hughlings Jackson (1874/1958, first described how propositional and non-propositional speech are differentially affected by neural impairment. Non-propositional language is often preserved following left hemisphere stroke even when aphasia is present (Code, 1982; Sidtis et al., 2009; Van Lancker Sidtis & Postman, 2006. With right hemisphere and subcortical stroke, formulaic language is reduced (Sidtis et al., 2009; Van Lancker Sidtis & Postman, 2006; Speedie et al., 1993. The dual process model of language competence states that propositional and non-propositional speech are processed differently in the brain, with novel speech controlled by the left hemisphere, and a right hemisphere/subcortical circuit modulating formulaic language (Van Lancker Sidtis, 2004; 2012. Two studies of formulaic language will be presented as further evidence of the dual process model: a study of formulaic language in Alzheimer’s disease, and a study of recited speech in Parkinson’s disease. Formulaic language includes overlearned words, phrases or longer linguistic units that are known to the native speaker, occur naturally in discourse, and are important for normal social interaction (Fillmore, 1979; Pawley & Syder, 1983; Van Lancker, 1988; Van Lancker Sidtis, 2004; Wray, 2002. Formulaic expressions include conversational speech formulas, idioms, proverbs, expletives, pause fillers, discourse elements, and sentence stems (stereotyped sentence-initials. Longer units of linguistic material, such as prayers, rhymes, and poems, termed recited speech, is another subtype of formulaic language that is learned in childhood and recited periodically throughout life. Cortical disease: Alzheimer’s disease and formulaic

  10. Evolution of costly explicit memory and cumulative culture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakamaru, Mayuko

    2016-06-21

    Humans can acquire new information and modify it (cumulative culture) based on their learning and memory abilities, especially explicit memory, through the processes of encoding, consolidation, storage, and retrieval. Explicit memory is categorized into semantic and episodic memories. Animals have semantic memory, while episodic memory is unique to humans and essential for innovation and the evolution of culture. As both episodic and semantic memory are needed for innovation, the evolution of explicit memory influences the evolution of culture. However, previous theoretical studies have shown that environmental fluctuations influence the evolution of imitation (social learning) and innovation (individual learning) and assume that memory is not an evolutionary trait. If individuals can store and retrieve acquired information properly, they can modify it and innovate new information. Therefore, being able to store and retrieve information is essential from the perspective of cultural evolution. However, if both storage and retrieval were too costly, forgetting and relearning would have an advantage over storing and retrieving acquired information. In this study, using mathematical analysis and individual-based simulations, we investigate whether cumulative culture can promote the coevolution of costly memory and social and individual learning, assuming that cumulative culture improves the fitness of each individual. The conclusions are: (1) without cumulative culture, a social learning cost is essential for the evolution of storage-retrieval. Costly storage-retrieval can evolve with individual learning but costly social learning does not evolve. When low-cost social learning evolves, the repetition of forgetting and learning is favored more than the evolution of costly storage-retrieval, even though a cultural trait improves the fitness. (2) When cumulative culture exists and improves fitness, storage-retrieval can evolve with social and/or individual learning, which

  11. El Carreto o Cumulá - Aspidosperma Dugandii Standl El Carreto o Cumulá - Aspidosperma Dugandii Standl

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dugand Armando

    1944-03-01

    Full Text Available Nombres vulgares: Carreto (Atlántico, Bolívar, Magdalena; Cumulá, Cumulá (Cundinamarca, ToIima. Según el Dr. Emilio Robledo (Lecciones de Bot. ed. 3, 2: 544. 1939 el nombre Carreto también es empleado en Puerto Berrío (Antioquia. El mismo autor (loc. cit. da el nombre Comulá para una especie indeterminada de Viburnum en Mariquita (Tolima y J. M. Duque, refiriendose a la misma planta y localidad (en Bot. Gen. Colomb. 340, 356. 1943 atribuye este nombre vulgar al Aspidosperma ellipticum Rusby.  Sin embargo, las muestras de madera de Cumulá o Comulá que yo he examinado, procedentes de la región de Mariquita -una de las cuales me fue recientemente enviada por el distinguido ictiólogo Sr. Cecil Miles- pertenecen sin duda alguna al A. Dugandii StandI. Por otra parte, Santiago Cortés (FI. Colomb. 206. 1898; ed, 2: 239. 1912 cita el Cumulá "de Anapoima y otros lugares del (rio Magdalena" diciendo que pertenece a las Leguminosas, pero la brevísima descripción que este autor hace de la madera "naranjada y notable por densidad, dureza y resistencia a la humedad", me induce a creer que se trata del mismo Cumula coleccionado recientemente en Tocaima, ya que esta población esta situada a pocos kilómetros de Anapoima. Nombres vulgares: Carreto (Atlántico, Bolívar, Magdalena; Cumulá, Cumulá (Cundinamarca, ToIima. Según el Dr. Emilio Robledo (Lecciones de Bot. ed. 3, 2: 544. 1939 el nombre Carreto también es empleado en Puerto Berrío (Antioquia. El mismo autor (loc. cit. da el nombre Comulá para una especie indeterminada de Viburnum en Mariquita (Tolima y J. M. Duque, refiriendose a la misma planta y localidad (en Bot. Gen. Colomb. 340, 356. 1943 atribuye este nombre vulgar al Aspidosperma ellipticum Rusby.  Sin embargo, las muestras de madera de Cumulá o Comulá que yo he examinado, procedentes de la región de Mariquita -una de las cuales me fue recientemente enviada por el distinguido ictiólogo Sr. Cecil Miles- pertenecen sin

  12. Evaluating Cumulative Ecosystem Response to Restoration Projects in the Columbia River Estuary, Annual Report 2004

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Diefenderfer, Heida L.; Roegner, Curtis; Thom, Ronald M.; Dawley, Earl M.; Whiting, Allan H.; Johnson, Gary E.; Sobocinski, Kathryn L.; Anderson, Michael G.; Ebberts, Blaine

    2005-12-15

    The restoration of wetland salmon habitat in the tidal portion of the Columbia River is occurring at an accelerating pace and is anticipated to improve habitat quality and effect hydrological reconnection between existing and restored habitats. Currently multiple groups are applying a variety of restoration strategies in an attempt to emulate historic estuarine processes. However, the region lacks both a standardized means of evaluating the effectiveness of individual projects as well as methods for determining the cumulative effects of all restoration projects on a regional scale. This project is working to establish a framework to evaluate individual and cumulative ecosystem responses to restoration activities in order to validate the effectiveness of habitat restoration activities designed to benefit salmon through improvements to habitat quality and habitat opportunity (i.e. access) in the Columbia River from Bonneville Dam to the ocean. The review and synthesis of approaches to measure the cumulative effects of multiple restoration projects focused on defining methods and metrics of relevance to the CRE, and, in particular, juvenile salmon use of this system. An extensive literature review found no previous study assessing the cumulative effects of multiple restoration projects on the fundamental processes and functions of a large estuarine system, although studies are underway in other large land-margin ecosystems including the Florida Everglades and the Louisiana coastal wetlands. Literature from a variety of scientific disciplines was consulted to identify the ways that effects can accumulate (e.g., delayed effects, cross-boundary effects, compounding effects, indirect effects, triggers and thresholds) as well as standard and innovative tools and methods utilized in cumulative effects analyses: conceptual models, matrices, checklists, modeling, trends analysis, geographic information systems, carrying capacity analysis, and ecosystem analysis. Potential

  13. The impact of physical activity on cumulative cardiovascular disease risk factors among Malaysian adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rasiah, Rajah; Thangiah, Govindamal; Yusoff, Khalid; Manikam, Rishya; Chandrasekaran, Sankara Kumar; Mustafa, Rujhan; Bakar, Najmin Binti Abu

    2015-12-16

    Numerous studies have shown the importance of physical activity in reducing the morbidity and mortality rates caused by cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, most of these studies emphasise little on the cumulative effect of CVD risk factors. Hence, this study investigates the association between physical exercise and cumulative CVD risk factors among adults in three different age groups. Using a sample of 7276 respondents drawn from community centers, the REDISCOVER team gathered information on physical activity, CVD risk factors (obesity, diabetes, hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, tobacco use) and socioeconomic and demographic variables in Malaysia. Because the study required medical examination, a convenience sampling frame was preferred in which all volunteers were included in the study. Fasting blood samples and anthropometric (height, weight and more) measurements were collected by trained staffs. Socio-demographic and physical activity variables were recorded through questionnaires. A Chi-square test was performed to identify the bivariate association between the covariates (socioeconomic variables, demographic variables and physical activity) and outcome variable. The association between the main exposure, physical activity, and the outcome variable, cumulative CVD risk factors, was assessed using an ordinal logistic regression model, controlling for socioeconomic status and demographic influences in three different age groups, 35-49, 50-64 and 65 and above. The mean age of participants is 51.8 (SD = 9.4). Respondents in the age groups of 35-49 (aORmoderate = 0.12; 95 % CI: 0.02 - 0.53 ) and 65 and above (aORhigh = 0.58; 95 % CI: 0.24, 0.78) showed a statistically significant inverse relationship between physical activity and cumulative CVD risk factors. However, this relationship was not significant among respondents in the 50-64 age group suggesting the possible influence of other variables, such as stress and environment. The

  14. The Influence of Weight-of-Evidence Messages on (Vaccine) Attitudes: A Sequential Mediation Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clarke, Christopher E; Weberling McKeever, Brooke; Holton, Avery; Dixon, Graham N

    2015-01-01

    Media coverage of contentious risk issues often features competing claims about whether a risk exists and what scientific evidence shows, and journalists often cover these issues by presenting both sides. However, for topics defined by scientific agreement, balanced coverage erroneously heightens uncertainty about scientific information and the issue itself. In this article, we extend research on combating so-called information and issue uncertainty using weight of evidence, drawing on the discredited autism-vaccine link as a case study. We examine whether people's perceptions of issue uncertainty (about whether a link exists) change before and after they encounter a news message with weight-of-evidence information. We also explore whether message exposure is associated with broader issue judgments, specifically vaccine attitudes. Participants (n = 181) read news articles that included or omitted weight-of-evidence content stating that scientific studies have found no link and that scientists agree that none exists. Postexposure issue uncertainty decreased-in other words, issue certainty increased-from preexposure levels across all conditions. Moreover, weight-of-evidence messages were associated with positive vaccine attitudes indirectly via reduced information uncertainty (i.e., one's belief that scientific opinion and evidence concerning a potential link is unclear) as well as issue uncertainty. We discuss implications for risk communication.

  15. Cumulative biological impacts framework for solar energy projects in the California Desert

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Frank W.; Kreitler, Jason R.; Soong, Oliver; Stoms, David M.; Dashiell, Stephanie; Hannah, Lee; Wilkinson, Whitney; Dingman, John

    2013-01-01

    This project developed analytical approaches, tools and geospatial data to support conservation planning for renewable energy development in the California deserts. Research focused on geographical analysis to avoid, minimize and mitigate the cumulative biological effects of utility-scale solar energy development. A hierarchical logic model was created to map the compatibility of new solar energy projects with current biological conservation values. The research indicated that the extent of compatible areas is much greater than the estimated land area required to achieve 2040 greenhouse gas reduction goals. Species distribution models were produced for 65 animal and plant species that were of potential conservation significance to the Desert Renewable Energy Conservation Plan process. These models mapped historical and projected future habitat suitability using 270 meter resolution climate grids. The results were integrated into analytical frameworks to locate potential sites for offsetting project impacts and evaluating the cumulative effects of multiple solar energy projects. Examples applying these frameworks in the Western Mojave Desert ecoregion show the potential of these publicly-available tools to assist regional planning efforts. Results also highlight the necessity to explicitly consider projected land use change and climate change when prioritizing areas for conservation and mitigation offsets. Project data, software and model results are all available online.

  16. Stress analysis of feeder bends using neutrons: new results and cumulative impacts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Banks, D.; Donaberger, R. [Canadian Neutron Beam Centre, Chalk River, ON (Canada); Leitch, B. [Atomic Energy of Canada Limited, Chalk River, ON (Canada); Rogge, R.B. [Canadian Neutron Beam Centre, Chalk River, ON (Canada)

    2014-07-01

    Neutron diffraction has played a vital role in stress analysis of bends in carbon steel pipes, known as feeder pipes, in CANDU reactors. Due to incidents of cracking of feeders, extensive R&D programs to manage feeder cracking have been implemented over about ten years. We review the cumulative impacts of this research from the view point of the stress analysis using neutrons, and present new results by examining a feeder bend with a partial crack both experimentally using neutron diffraction and theoretically using a finite element model. (author)

  17. The parasitic model of L2 and L3 vocabulary acquisition: evidence from naturalistic and experimental studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Ecke

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper reviews evidence for the Parasitic Model of Vocabulary Acquisition for second and third language learners/developing multilinguals. It first describes the model’s predictions about default processes based on the detection and use of similarity at the three stages involved in the development of individual lexical items: (1 the establishing of a form representation, (2 the building of connections to syntactic frame and concept representations, and (3 the strengthening and automatization of representations and access routes. The paper then summarizes both naturalistic and experimental evidence for processes involved at these three stages. Finally it discusses open issues and potential areas for future investigation.

  18. Framework tool for a rapid cumulative effects assessment: case of a prominent wetland in Myanmar.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pradhan, N; Habib, H; Venkatappa, M; Ebbers, T; Duboz, R; Shipin, O

    2015-06-01

    The wetland of focus, Inle Lake, located in central Myanmar, is well known for its unique biodiversity and culture, as well as for ingenious floating garden agriculture. During the last decades, the lake area has seen extensive degradation in terms of water quality, erosion, deforestation, and biodiversity concomitant with a major shift to unsustainable land use. The study was conducted, with an emphasis on water quality, to analyze environmental impacts (effects) changing the ecosystem and to comprehensively evaluate the environmental state of the ecosystem through an innovative Rapid Cumulative Effects Assessment framework tool. The assessment started with a framework-forming Participatory Rural Appraisal (PRA), which quantified and prioritized impacts over space and time. Critically important impacts were assessed for "intra-inter interactions" using the loop analysis simulation. Water samples were analyzed while geographic information system (GIS) and remote sensing were used to identify water pollution hotspots. It was concluded that out of a plethora of impacts, pollution from municipal sources, sedimentation, and effects exerted by floating gardens had the most detrimental impacts, which cumulatively affected the entire ecosystem. The framework tool was designed in a broad sense with a reference to highly needed assessments of poorly studied wetlands where degradation is evident, but scarcely quantified, and where long-term field studies are fraught with security issues and resource unavailability (post-conflict, poor and remote regions, e.g., Afghanistan, Laos, Sudan, etc.).

  19. Measurement of multi-particle azimuthal correlations with the subevent cumulant method with the ATLAS detector

    CERN Document Server

    Zhou, Mingliang; The ATLAS collaboration

    2017-01-01

    The measurement of four-particle cumulant and anisotropic elliptic flow coefficient for the second harmonic, $c_{2}\\{4\\}$ and $v_{2}\\{4\\}$, are presented using $pp$ data at $\\sqrt{s}=5.02$ and $\\sqrt{s}=13$ TeV, and $p+$Pb data at $\\sqrt{s_{\\text{NN}}}=5.02$ TeV. These measurements aim to assess collective nature of multi-particle production. While collectivity is well established in $p$+Pb and Pb+Pb collisions, because of larger non-flow contributions, its evidence in $pp$ collisions is contested. The values of $c_{2}\\{4\\}$ are calculated using the standard cumulant method and recently proposed two and three subevent methods, which can further suppress the non-flow contributions in small systems. In these collisions systems, the three subevent method gives a negative $c_{2}\\{4\\}$, and thus a well-defined $v_{2}\\{4\\}$. The magnitude of $c_{2}\\{4\\}$ is found to be nearly independent of $\\langle N_{\\text{ch}} \\rangle$ and third harmonic $c_{3}\\{4\\}$ is consistent with 0. $v_{2}\\{4\\}$ is found to be smaller than...

  20. The cumulative effect of consecutive winters' snow depth on moose and deer populations: a defence

    Science.gov (United States)

    McRoberts, R.E.; Mech, L.D.; Peterson, R.O.

    1995-01-01

    1. L. D. Mech et al. presented evidence that moose Alces alces and deer Odocoileus virginianus population parameters re influenced by a cumulative effect of three winters' snow depth. They postulated that snow depth affects adult ungulates cumulatively from winter to winter and results in measurable offspring effects after the third winter. 2. F. Messier challenged those findings and claimed that the population parameters studied were instead affected by ungulate density and wolf indexes. 3. This paper refutes Messier's claims by demonstrating that his results were an artifact of two methodological errors. The first was that, in his main analyses, Messier used only the first previous winter's snow depth rather than the sum of the previous three winters' snow depth, which was the primary point of Mech et al. Secondly, Messier smoothed the ungulate population data, which removed 22-51% of the variability from the raw data. 4. When we repeated Messier's analyses on the raw data and using the sum of the previous three winter's snow depth, his findings did not hold up.

  1. Basing care reforms on evidence: the Kenya health sector costing model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flessa, Steffen; Moeller, Michael; Ensor, Tim; Hornetz, Klaus

    2011-05-27

    The Government of the Republic of Kenya is in the process of implementing health care reforms. However, poor knowledge about costs of health care services is perceived as a major obstacle towards evidence-based, effective and efficient health care reforms. Against this background, the Ministry of Health of Kenya in cooperation with its development partners conducted a comprehensive costing exercise and subsequently developed the Kenya Health Sector Costing Model in order to fill this data gap. Based on standard methodology of costing of health care services in developing countries, standard questionnaires and analyses were employed in 207 health care facilities representing different trustees (e.g. Government, Faith Based/Nongovernmental, private-for-profit organisations), levels of care and regions (urban, rural). In addition, a total of 1369 patients were randomly selected and asked about their demand-sided costs. A standard step-down costing methodology was applied to calculate the costs per service unit and per diagnosis of the financial year 2006/2007. The total costs of essential health care services in Kenya were calculated as 690 million Euros or 18.65 Euro per capita. 54% were incurred by public sector facilities, 17% by Faith Based and other Nongovernmental facilities and 23% in the private sector. Some 6% of the total cost is due to the overall administration provided directly by the Ministry and its decentralised organs. Around 37% of this cost is absorbed by salaries and 22% by drugs and medical supplies. Generally, costs of lower levels of care are lower than of higher levels, but health centres are an exemption. They have higher costs per service unit than district hospitals. The results of this study signify that the costs of health care services are quite high compared with the Kenyan domestic product, but a major share are fixed costs so that an increasing coverage does not necessarily increase the health care costs proportionally. Instead

  2. Basing care reforms on evidence: The Kenya health sector costing model

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    Background The Government of the Republic of Kenya is in the process of implementing health care reforms. However, poor knowledge about costs of health care services is perceived as a major obstacle towards evidence-based, effective and efficient health care reforms. Against this background, the Ministry of Health of Kenya in cooperation with its development partners conducted a comprehensive costing exercise and subsequently developed the Kenya Health Sector Costing Model in order to fill this data gap. Methods Based on standard methodology of costing of health care services in developing countries, standard questionnaires and analyses were employed in 207 health care facilities representing different trustees (e.g. Government, Faith Based/Nongovernmental, private-for-profit organisations), levels of care and regions (urban, rural). In addition, a total of 1369 patients were randomly selected and asked about their demand-sided costs. A standard step-down costing methodology was applied to calculate the costs per service unit and per diagnosis of the financial year 2006/2007. Results The total costs of essential health care services in Kenya were calculated as 690 million Euros or 18.65 Euro per capita. 54% were incurred by public sector facilities, 17% by Faith Based and other Nongovernmental facilities and 23% in the private sector. Some 6% of the total cost is due to the overall administration provided directly by the Ministry and its decentralised organs. Around 37% of this cost is absorbed by salaries and 22% by drugs and medical supplies. Generally, costs of lower levels of care are lower than of higher levels, but health centres are an exemption. They have higher costs per service unit than district hospitals. Conclusions The results of this study signify that the costs of health care services are quite high compared with the Kenyan domestic product, but a major share are fixed costs so that an increasing coverage does not necessarily increase the health

  3. Association between B vitamins supplementation and risk of cardiovascular outcomes: a cumulative meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chi Zhang

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Observational studies suggest that B vitamin supplementation reduces cardiovascular risk in adults, but this association remains controversial. This study aimed to summarize the evidence from randomized controlled trials (RCTs investigating B vitamin supplementation for the primary or secondary prevention of major adverse cardiovascular outcomes and to perform a cumulative meta-analysis to determine the evidence base. METHODOLOGY AND PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: In April 2013, we searched PubMed, Embase, and the Cochrane Library to identify relevant RCTs. We included RCTs investigating the effect of B vitamin supplementation on cardiovascular outcome. Relative risk (RR was used to measure the effect using a random-effect model. Statistical heterogeneity scores were assessed using the Q statistic. We included data on 57,952 individuals from 24 RCTs: 12 primary prevention trials and 12 secondary prevention trials. In 23 of these trials, 10,917 major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE occurred; in 20 trials, 7,203 deaths occurred; in 15 trials, 3,422 cardiac deaths occurred; in 19 trials, 3,623 myocardial infarctions (MI occurred; and in 18 trials, 2,465 strokes occurred. B vitamin supplementation had little or no effect on the incidence of MACE (RR, 0.98; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.93-1.03; P = 0.37, total mortality (RR, 1.01; 95% CI: 0.97-1.05; P = 0.77, cardiac death (RR, 0.96; 95% CI: 0.90-1.02; P = 0.21, MI (RR, 0.99; 95% CI: 0.93-1.06; P = 0.82, or stroke (RR, 0.94; 95% CI: 0.85-1.03; P = 0.18. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: B vitamin supplementation, when used for primary or secondary prevention, is not associated with a reduction in MACE, total mortality, cardiac death, MI, or stroke.

  4. Early Start Denver Model. Un modello Evidence Based per l’intervento educativo precoce nei Disturbi dello Spettro Autistico

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saverio Fontani

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available The Autism Spectrum Disorders represents one of the most complex developmental disabilities for the massive deficit of communication competences. The social disability related to disorders is the main objective of the intervention of the Early Start Denver Model – ESDM (Rogers & Dawson, 2010, which can be considered as one of the most advanced models for early educational intervention according the perspective of Evidence Based Education. In this paper the theoretical foundations of the model are presented and its implications for a modern inclusive education are discussed..

  5. Mismatch or cumulative stress : Toward an integrated hypothesis of programming effects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nederhof, Esther; Schmidt, Mathias V.

    2012-01-01

    This paper integrates the cumulative stress hypothesis with the mismatch hypothesis, taking into account individual differences in sensitivity to programming. According to the cumulative stress hypothesis, individuals are more likely to suffer from disease as adversity accumulates. According to the

  6. Inclusive fitness analysis of cumulative cultural evolution in an island-structured population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ohtsuki, Hisashi; Wakano, Joe Yuichiro; Kobayashi, Yutaka

    2017-06-01

    The success of humans on the globe is largely supported by our cultural excellence. Our culture is cumulative, meaning that it is improved from generation to generation. Previous works have revealed that two modes of learning, individual learning and social learning, play pivotal roles in the accumulation of culture. However, under the trade-off between learning and reproduction, one's investment into learning is easily exploited by those who copy the knowledge of skillful individuals and selfishly invest more efforts in reproduction. It has been shown that in order to prevent such a breakdown, the rate of vertical transmission (i.e. transmission from parents to their offspring) of culture must be unrealistically close to one. Here we investigate what if the population is spatially structured. In particular, we hypothesize that spatial structure should favor highly cumulative culture through endogenously arising high kinship. We employ Wright's island model and assume that cultural transmission occurs within a local island. Our inclusive fitness analysis reveals combined effects of direct fitness of the actor, indirect fitness through relatives in the current generation, and indirect fitness through relatives in future generations. The magnitude of those indirect benefits is measured by intergenerational coefficients of genetic relatedness. Our result suggests that the introduction of spatial structure raises the stationary level of culture in the population, but that the extent of its improvement compared with a well-mixed population is marginal unless spatial localization is extreme. Overall, our model implies that we need an alternative mechanism to explain highly cumulative culture of modern humans. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Cumulative Significance of Hyporheic Exchange and Biogeochemical Processing in River Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harvey, J. W.; Gomez-Velez, J. D.

    2014-12-01

    Biogeochemical reactions in rivers that decrease excessive loads of nutrients, metals, organic compounds, etc. are enhanced by hydrologic interactions with microbially and geochemically active sediments of the hyporheic zone. The significance of reactions in individual hyporheic flow paths has been shown to be controlled by the contact time between river water and sediment and the intrinsic reaction rate in the sediment. However, little is known about how the cumulative effects of hyporheic processing in large river basins. We used the river network model NEXSS (Gomez-Velez and Harvey, submitted) to simulate hyporheic exchange through synthetic river networks based on the best available models of network topology, hydraulic geometry and scaling of geomorphic features, grain size, hydraulic conductivity, and intrinsic reaction rates of nutrients and metals in river sediment. The dimensionless reaction significance factor, RSF (Harvey et al., 2013) was used to quantify the cumulative removal fraction of a reactive solute by hyporheic processing. SF scales reaction progress in a single pass through the hyporheic zone with the proportion of stream discharge passing through the hyporheic zone for a specified distance. Reaction progress is optimal where the intrinsic reaction timescale in sediment matches the residence time of hyporheic flow and is less efficient in longer residence time hyporheic flow as a result of the decreasing proportion of river flow that is processed by longer residence time hyporheic flow paths. In contrast, higher fluxes through short residence time hyporheic flow paths may be inefficient because of the repeated surface-subsurface exchanges required to complete the reaction. Using NEXSS we found that reaction efficiency may be high in both small streams and large rivers, although for different reasons. In small streams reaction progress generally is dominated by faster pathways of vertical exchange beneath submerged bedforms. Slower exchange

  8. Uncertainty analysis technique of dynamic response and cumulative damage properties of piping system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suzuki, Kohei; Aoki, Shigeru; Hara, Fumio; Hanaoka, Masaaki; Yamashita, Tadashi.

    1982-01-01

    It is a technologically important subject to establish the method of uncertainty analysis statistically examining the variation of the earthquake response and damage properties of equipment and piping system due to the change of input load and the parameters of structural system, for evaluating the aseismatic capability and dynamic structural reliability of these systems. The uncertainty in the response and damage properties when equipment and piping system are subjected to excessive vibration load is mainly dependent on the irregularity of acting input load such as the unsteady vibration of earthquakes, and structural uncertainty in forms and dimensions. This study is the basic one to establish the method for evaluating the uncertainty in the cumulative damage property at the time of resonant vibration of piping system due to the disperse of structural parameters with a simple model. First, the piping models with simple form were broken by resonant vibration, and the uncertainty in the cumulative damage property was evaluated. Next, the response analysis using an elasto-plastic mechanics model was performed by numerical simulation. Finally, the method of uncertainty analysis for response and damage properties by the perturbation method utilizing equivalent linearization was proposed, and its propriety was proved. (Kako, I.)

  9. Evidence for the Implementation of the Early Start Denver Model for Young Children With Autism Spectrum Disorder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ryberg, Kayce H

    2015-01-01

    The Early Start Denver Model (ESDM) is a manualized comprehensive therapy for toddlers with autism spectrum disorder. It emphasizes interpersonal engagement through synchrony, rhythms, and reciprocity to decrease symptom severity and accelerate cognitive, social-emotional, and language development. To systematically review evidence regarding the use of the ESDM as an intervention for young children with autism spectrum disorder. PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, Embase, and CINAHL were searched from 2010-2015 using predetermined inclusion criteria. Study methodology, participant characteristics, and outcomes were evaluated and quality of evidence was assigned. Eight articles met inclusion criteria and consisted of two randomized controlled trials, four controlled trials, and two observational cohort studies. Evidence quality ranged from low to high. The ESDM is an effective intervention that improves cognition, language, and adaptive behavior. ESDM strategies delivered in community group settings and in the home by parents have potential to be efficacious and feasible. © The Author(s) 2015.

  10. The more you play, the more aggressive you become: A long-term experimental study of cumulative violent video game effects on hostile expectations and aggressive behavior

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hasan, Y.; Bègue, L.; Scharkow, M.; Bushman, B.J.

    2012-01-01

    It is well established that violent video games increase aggression. There is a stronger evidence of short-term violent video game effects than of long-term effects. The present experiment tests the cumulative long-term effects of violent video games on hostile expectations and aggressive behavior

  11. No evidence for cumulative effects in a Dnmt3b hypomorph across multiple generations

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Youngson, N.A.; Epp, Trevor; Roberts, A.R.; Daxinger, L.; Ashe, A.; Huang, E.; Lester, K.L.; Harten, S.K.; Kay, G.F.; Cox, T.; Matthews, J.M.; Chong, S.; Whitelaw, E.

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 24, 5-6 (2013), s. 206-217 ISSN 0938-8990 Institutional support: RVO:68378050 Keywords : epigenetic inheritance * mammalian development * transgenerational Subject RIV: EB - Genetics ; Molecular Biology Impact factor: 2.883, year: 2013

  12. Cumulative Repetition Effects across Multiple Readings of a Word: Evidence from Eye Movements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamienkowski, Juan E.; Carbajal, M. Julia; Bianchi, Bruno; Sigman, Mariano; Shalom, Diego E.

    2018-01-01

    When a word is read more than once, reading time generally decreases in the successive occurrences. This Repetition Effect has been used to study word encoding and memory processes in a variety of experimental measures. We studied naturally occurring repetitions of words within normal texts (stories of around 3,000 words). Using linear mixed…

  13. Cumulative Risk, Teacher Well-Being and Instructional Quality: Evidence from the DRC and Ghana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolf, Sharon

    2016-01-01

    There is growing concern that teachers in low-income countries are increasingly demotivated, which may partially explain deteriorating teaching performance and student learning outcomes, high rates of turnover and absenteeism, and misconduct. At the same time, remarkably little systematic research has examined the living and working conditions for…

  14. The functional origin of dinosaur bipedalism: Cumulative evidence from bipedally inclined reptiles and disinclined mammals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Persons, W Scott; Currie, Philip J

    2017-05-07

    Bipedalism is a trait basal to, and widespread among, dinosaurs. It has been previously argued that bipedalism arose in the ancestors of dinosaurs for the function of freeing the forelimbs to serve as predatory weapons. However, this argument does not explain why bipedalism was retained among numerous herbivorous groups of dinosaurs. We argue that bipedalism arose in the dinosaur line for the purpose of enhanced cursoriality. Modern facultatively bipedal lizards offer an analog for the first stages in the evolution of dinosaurian bipedalism. Many extant lizards assume a bipedal stance while attempting to flee predators at maximum speed. Bipedalism, when combined with a caudofemoralis musculature, has cursorial advantages because the caudofemoralis provides a greater source of propulsion to the hindlimbs than is generally available to the forelimbs. That cursorial advantage explains the relative abundance of cursorial facultative bipeds and obligate bipeds among fossil diapsids and the relative scarcity of either among mammals. Having lost their caudofemoralis in the Permian, perhaps in the context of adapting to a fossorial lifestyle, the mammalian line has been disinclined towards bipedalism, but, having never lost the caudofemoralis of their ancestors, cursorial avemetatarsalians (bird-line archosaurs) were naturally inclined towards bipedalism. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Science and societal partnerships to address cumulative impacts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carolyn J Lundquist

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Funding and priorities for ocean research are not separate from the underlying sociological, economic, and political landscapes that determine values attributed to ecological systems. Here we present a variation on science prioritisation exercises, focussing on inter-disciplinary research questions with the objective of shifting broad scale management practices to better address cumulative impacts and multiple users. Marine scientists in New Zealand from a broad range of scientific and social-scientific backgrounds ranked 48 statements of research priorities. At a follow up workshop, participants discussed five over-arching themes based on survey results. These themes were used to develop mechanisms to increase the relevance and efficiency of scientific research while acknowledging socio-economic and political drivers of research agendas in New Zealand’s ocean ecosystems. Overarching messages included the need to: 1 determine the conditions under which ‘surprises’ (sudden and substantive undesirable changes are likely to occur and the socio-ecological implications of such changes; 2 develop methodologies to reveal the complex and cumulative effects of change in marine systems, and their implications for resource use, stewardship, and restoration; 3 assess potential solutions to management issues that balance long-term and short-term benefits and encompass societal engagement in decision-making; 4 establish effective and appropriately resourced institutional networks to foster collaborative, solution-focused marine science; and 5 establish cross-disciplinary dialogues to translate diverse scientific and social-scientific knowledge into innovative regulatory, social and economic practice. In the face of multiple uses and cumulative stressors, ocean management frameworks must be adapted to build a collaborative framework across science, governance and society that can help stakeholders navigate uncertainties and socio-ecological surprises.

  16. Cumulative risk hypothesis: Predicting and preventing child maltreatment recidivism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solomon, David; Åsberg, Kia; Peer, Samuel; Prince, Gwendolyn

    2016-08-01

    Although Child Protective Services (CPS) and other child welfare agencies aim to prevent further maltreatment in cases of child abuse and neglect, recidivism is common. Having a better understanding of recidivism predictors could aid in preventing additional instances of maltreatment. A previous study identified two CPS interventions that predicted recidivism: psychotherapy for the parent, which was related to a reduced risk of recidivism, and temporary removal of the child from the parent's custody, which was related to an increased recidivism risk. However, counter to expectations, this previous study did not identify any other specific risk factors related to maltreatment recidivism. For the current study, it was hypothesized that (a) cumulative risk (i.e., the total number of risk factors) would significantly predict maltreatment recidivism above and beyond intervention variables in a sample of CPS case files and that (b) therapy for the parent would be related to a reduced likelihood of recidivism. Because it was believed that the relation between temporary removal of a child from the parent's custody and maltreatment recidivism is explained by cumulative risk, the study also hypothesized that that the relation between temporary removal of the child from the parent's custody and recidivism would be mediated by cumulative risk. After performing a hierarchical logistic regression analysis, the first two hypotheses were supported, and an additional predictor, psychotherapy for the child, also was related to reduced chances of recidivism. However, Hypothesis 3 was not supported, as risk did not significantly mediate the relation between temporary removal and recidivism. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Cumulative or delayed nephrotoxicity after cisplatin (DDP) treatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pinnarò, P; Ruggeri, E M; Carlini, P; Giovannelli, M; Cognetti, F

    1986-04-30

    The present retrospective study reports data regarding renal toxicity in 115 patients (63 males, 52 females; median age, 56 years) who received cumulative doses of cisplatin (DDP) greater than or equal to 200 mg/m2. DDP was administered alone or in combination at a dose of 50-70 mg/m2 in 91 patients, and at a dose of 100 mg/m2 in 22 patients. Two patients after progression of ovarian carcinoma treated with conventional doses of DDP received 4 and 2 courses, respectively, of high-dose DDP (40 mg/m2 for 5 days) in hypertonic saline. The median number of DDP courses was 6 (range 2-14), and the median cumulative dose was 350 mg/m2 (range, 200-1200). Serum creatinine and urea nitrogen were determined before initiating the treatment and again 13-16 days after each administration. The incidence of azotemia (creatinina levels that exceeded 1.5 mg/dl) was similar before (7.8%) and after (6.1%) DDP doses of 200 mg/m2. Azotemia appears to be related to the association of DDP with other potentially nephrotoxic antineoplastic drugs (methotrexate) more than to the dose per course of DDP. Of 59 patients followed for 2 months or more after discontinuing the DDP treatment, 3 (5.1%) presented creatinine values higher than 1.5 mg/dl. The data deny that the incidence of nephrotoxicity is higher in patients receiving higher cumulative doses of DDP and confirm that increases in serum creatinine levels may occur some time after discontinuation of the drug.

  18. The Utility of Cognitive Plausibility in Language Acquisition Modeling: Evidence from Word Segmentation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phillips, Lawrence; Pearl, Lisa

    2015-01-01

    The informativity of a computational model of language acquisition is directly related to how closely it approximates the actual acquisition task, sometimes referred to as the model's "cognitive plausibility." We suggest that though every computational model necessarily idealizes the modeled task, an informative language acquisition…

  19. Evidence on a Real Business Cycle Model with Neutral and Investment-Specific Technology Shocks using Bayesian Model Averaging

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R.W. Strachan (Rodney); H.K. van Dijk (Herman)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractThe empirical support for a real business cycle model with two technology shocks is evaluated using a Bayesian model averaging procedure. This procedure makes use of a finite mixture of many models within the class of vector autoregressive (VAR) processes. The linear VAR model is

  20. Cumulative exposure to phthalates from phthalate-containing drug products

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ennis, Zandra Nymand; Broe, Anne; Pottegård, Anton

    2018-01-01

    European regulatory limit of exposure ranging between 380-1710 mg/year throughout the study period. Lithium-products constituted the majority of dibutyl phthalate exposure. Diethyl phthalate exposure, mainly caused by erythromycin, theophylline and diclofenac products, did not exceed the EMA regulatory...... to quantify annual cumulated phthalate exposure from drug products among users of phthalate-containing oral medications in Denmark throughout the period of 2004-2016. METHODS: We conducted a Danish nationwide cohort study using The Danish National Prescription Registry and an internal database held...