APPLICATION OF KMV MODEL TO ASSESS CREDIT RISK OF INDIVIDUAL ENTREPRENEURS

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Taishin A. A.

2014-09-01

Full Text Available The problem of credit risk is relevant for the bank. The purpose of scientific research - to develop a technique of adaptation and application of the model for the evaluation risk of KMV Russian entrepreneurs. The proposed method of evaluation credit risk of KMV Russian entrepreneurs has many advantages. Automation of calculations, based on plausible assumptions, will significantly reduce the time to process the customer's request. The article contains analysis of the KMV model based on the up-to-date results of the theory. The author investigates the possibility of modification, generalization of the model and practical implementation of the risk estimate of default entrepreneur KMV model using software package Visual Basic for Application on the example Management reporting of the entrepreneur. Showing the features of its application in the light of the modern achievements in the theory and practice of financial analysis. In this article suggested the finished result of evaluation risk of KMV Russian entrepreneurs, for risk assessment offered more precise recommendations for the practical use of KMV as a basic tool.

CONTINGENCIES FOR MEASUREMENT OF THE CREDIT RISK

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Marinela BARBULESCU

2015-12-01

Full Text Available The Global Financial Crisis, which affected various banks, some of them very important banks, highlighted the importance of an accurate credit risk measurement in order to be able to overcome it. There are a variety of such credit risk measurement models, so we can say that banks face a real dilemma when having to choose the most appropriate one. The aim of this paper is to examine the most popular methods used to measure the credit risk and to identify the strengths and the weaknesses of each one of it. The research was accomplished from a double perspective, in which the conceptual methodological approach is correlated to a variety of references to practical actions aiming the measurement and the prevention of credit risk. The study includes the presentation of the objectives of credit risk analysis, the most appropriate moments for doing such an analysis, the steps that have to be done in order to measure the credit risk, the errors that can overcome in the credit risk measurement system, generated by the misclassifications of the studied company, and the presentation of the specific information of financial creditors. The findings expressed in this paper were mainly the result of a qualitative analysis which showed that there is no best model for credit risk measurement, each one having both strengths and weaknesses, some providing a comprehensive analysis of the individual customer’s financial strength others allowing banks permanently monitor fluctuating default risk and identify the possibly problems at an early stage.

Customers and Markets: Both are Essential to Credit-Risk Measurement

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David E. Allen

2011-03-01

Full Text Available This paper compares credit models that incorporate a market component to those that are solely customerbased. We found that customer-only models understated credit risk during the Global Financial Crisis (GFCand do not adequately differentiate between industries. Models that focus too heavily on the market canoverstate credit risk in times of high volatility. We recommend a two-factor modelling approach thatincorporates both customer and market risk to improve the accuracy of credit-risk measurement as well asassist lenders with early risk detection.

The Cross-Section of Credit Risk Premia and Equity Returns

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Friewald, Nils; Wagner, Christian; Zechner, Josef

Structural models a la Merton (1974) imply that rms' risk premia in equity and credit markets are related. We explore this relation, using the joint crosssection of stock returns and risk premia estimated from forward credit default swap (CDS) spreads. Consistent with structural models, we nd...... that rms' equity returns and Sharpe ratios increase with estimated credit risk premia and that the returns of buying high and selling low credit risk premium rms cannot be explained by traditional risk factors. Credit risk premia contain equity-relevant information neither captured by risk-neutral nor...

Credit risk transfer

OpenAIRE

Bank for International Settlements

2003-01-01

Executive summary Techniques for transferring credit risk, such as financial guarantees and credit insurance, have been a long-standing feature of financial markets. In the past few years, however, the range of credit risk transfer (CRT) instruments and the circumstances in which they are used have widened considerably. A number of factors have contributed to this growth, including: greater focus by banks and other financial institutions on risk management; a more rigorous approach to risk/re...

Using multi-state markov models to identify credit card risk

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Daniel Evangelista Régis

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Abstract The main interest of this work is to analyze the application of multi-state Markov models to evaluate credit card risk by investigating the characteristics of different state transitions in client-institution relationships over time, thereby generating score models for various purposes. We also used logistic regression models to compare the results with those obtained using multi-state Markov models. The models were applied to an actual database of a Brazilian financial institution. In this application, multi-state Markov models performed better than logistic regression models in predicting default risk, and logistic regression models performed better in predicting cancellation risk.

Two retailer-supplier supply chain models with default risk under trade credit policy.

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Chengfeng; Zhao, Qiuhong

2016-01-01

The purpose of the paper is to formulate two uncooperative replenishment models with demand and default risk which are the functions of the trade credit period, i.e., a Nash equilibrium model and a supplier-Stackelberg model. Firstly, we present the optimal results of decentralized decision and centralized decision without trade credit. Secondly, we derive the existence and uniqueness conditions of the optimal solutions under the two games, respectively. Moreover, we present a set of theorems and corollary to determine the optimal solutions. Finally, we provide an example and sensitivity analysis to illustrate the proposed strategy and optimal solutions. Sensitivity analysis reveals that the total profits of supply chain under the two games both are better than the results under the centralized decision only if the optimal trade credit period isn't too short. It also reveals that the size of trade credit period, demand, retailer's profit and supplier's profit have strong relationship with the increasing demand coefficient, wholesale price, default risk coefficient and production cost. The major contribution of the paper is that we comprehensively compare between the results of decentralized decision and centralized decision without trade credit, Nash equilibrium and supplier-Stackelberg models with trade credit, and obtain some interesting managerial insights and practical implications.

Credit risk management in banks

OpenAIRE

Pětníková, Tereza

2014-01-01

The subject of this diploma thesis is managing credit risk in banks, as the most significant risk faced by banks. The aim of this work is to define the basic techniques, tools and methods that are used by banks to manage credit risk. The first part of this work focuses on defining these procedures and describes the entire process of credit risk management, from the definition of credit risk, describing credit strategy and policy, organizational structure, defining the most used credit risk mi...

Optimal replenishment and credit policy in supply chain inventory model under two levels of trade credit with time- and credit-sensitive demand involving default risk

Science.gov (United States)

Mahata, Puspita; Mahata, Gour Chandra; Kumar De, Sujit

2018-03-01

Traditional supply chain inventory modes with trade credit usually only assumed that the up-stream suppliers offered the down-stream retailers a fixed credit period. However, in practice the retailers will also provide a credit period to customers to promote the market competition. In this paper, we formulate an optimal supply chain inventory model under two levels of trade credit policy with default risk consideration. Here, the demand is assumed to be credit-sensitive and increasing function of time. The major objective is to determine the retailer's optimal credit period and cycle time such that the total profit per unit time is maximized. The existence and uniqueness of the optimal solution to the presented model are examined, and an easy method is also shown to find the optimal inventory policies of the considered problem. Finally, numerical examples and sensitive analysis are presented to illustrate the developed model and to provide some managerial insights.

Empirical Analysis of Farm Credit Risk under the Structure Model

Science.gov (United States)

Yan, Yan

2009-01-01

The study measures farm credit risk by using farm records collected by Farm Business Farm Management (FBFM) during the period 1995-2004. The study addresses the following questions: (1) whether farm's financial position is fully described by the structure model, (2) what are the determinants of farm capital structure under the structure model, (3)…

On Partial Defaults in Portfolio Credit Risk : A Poisson Mixture Model Approach

OpenAIRE

Weißbach, Rafael; von Lieres und Wilkau, Carsten

2005-01-01

Most credit portfolio models exclusively calculate the loss distribution for a portfolio of performing counterparts. Conservative default definitions cause considerable insecurity about the loss for a long time after the default. We present three approaches to account for defaulted counterparts in the calculation of the economic capital. Two of the approaches are based on the Poisson mixture model CreditRisk+ and derive a loss distribution for an integrated portfolio. The third method treats ...

CREDIT RISK MINIMIZATION WAYS AND PRICING OF BANKING SERVICES

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V. E. Gladkova

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Accurate accounting of own expenses on rendering banking services and forming reasonable prices for them make it possible for commercial banks to adequately react to market situation changes. Credit risk minimization comprises: credit rationing (in Russia according to RF Central Bank norms; credit diversification; credit structuring; and forming reserves to cover respective bank risks (also in accordance with RF CB documents. Effective is bank credit hedging (insuring through credit derivatives. Most advanced at international finance markets are such risk minimization systems as Basel-II and IRBA. Pricing models based on individual assessment of each borrower’s risk class (Risk Based Pricing approach are widely used.

Modern bank's credit risk

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Šabović Šerif

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Credit risk is the most important risk banks have to face with. It occurs due to an obligation created because of debtors' capital and interest rate nonpayment. Debtors obligations non-fulfilment may lead to great losses and insolvency in bank's business. Credit risk is the crucial reason of bank's insolvency. Over 80% of bank's balance sheet is exposed to credit risk.

Risk adjustment model of credit life insurance using a genetic algorithm

Science.gov (United States)

Saputra, A.; Sukono; Rusyaman, E.

2018-03-01

In managing the risk of credit life insurance, insurance company should acknowledge the character of the risks to predict future losses. Risk characteristics can be learned in a claim distribution model. There are two standard approaches in designing the distribution model of claims over the insurance period i.e, collective risk model and individual risk model. In the collective risk model, the claim arises when risk occurs is called individual claim, accumulation of individual claim during a period of insurance is called an aggregate claim. The aggregate claim model may be formed by large model and a number of individual claims. How the measurement of insurance risk with the premium model approach and whether this approach is appropriate for estimating the potential losses occur in the future. In order to solve the problem Genetic Algorithm with Roulette Wheel Selection is used.

Credit risk assessment: Evidence from banking industry

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Hassan Ghodrati

2014-08-01

Full Text Available Measuring different risk factors such as credit risk in banking industry has been an interesting area of studies. The artificial neural network is a nonparametric method developed to succeed for measuring credit risk and this method is applied to measure the credit risk. This research’s neural network follows back propagation paradigm, which enables it to use historical data for predicting future values with very good out of sample fitting. Macroeconomic variables including GDP, exchange rate, inflation rate, stock price index, and M2 are used to forecast credit risk for two Iranian banks; namely Saderat and Sarmayeh over the period 2007-2011. Research data are being tested for ADF and Causality Granger tests before entering the ANN to achieve the best lag structure for the research model. MSE and R values for the developed ANN in this research respectively are 86×〖10〗^(-4 and 0.9885, respectively. The results showed that ANN was able to predict banks’ credit risk with low error. Sensibility analyses which has accomplished on this research’s ANN corroborates that M2 has the highest effect on the ANN’s credit risk and should be considered as an additional leading indicator by Iran’s banking authorities. These matters confirm validation of macroeconomic notions in Iran’s credit systematic risk.

Credit Risk Analysis using Machine and Deep Learning models

OpenAIRE

Addo , Peter ,; Guegan , Dominique; Hassani , Bertrand

2018-01-01

URL des Documents de travail : https://centredeconomiesorbonne.univ-paris1.fr/documents-de-travail-du-ces/; Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 2018.03 - ISSN : 1955-611X; Due to the hyper technology associated to Big Data, data availability and computing power, most banks or lending financial institutions are renewing their business models. Credit risk predictions, monitoring, model reliability and effective loan processing are key to decision making and transparency. In...

Valuing Catastrophe Bonds Involving Credit Risks

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Jian Liu

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Catastrophe bonds are the most important products in catastrophe risk securitization market. For the operating mechanism, CAT bonds may have a credit risk, so in this paper we consider the influence of the credit risk on CAT bonds pricing that is different from the other literature. We employ the Jarrow and Turnbull method to model the credit risks and get access to the general pricing formula using the Extreme Value Theory. Furthermore, we present an empirical pricing study of the Property Claim Services data, where the parameters in the loss function distribution are estimated by the MLE method and the default probabilities are deduced by the US financial market data. Then we get the catastrophe bonds value by the Monte Carlo method.

Study of Commercial Bank Risk Monitoring Model in Individual Consumption Credit

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

刘春红

2003-01-01

With the development of individual consumption credit (ICC) in China, commercial banks have been exposed to more and more risks. The loan failure has been an important problem that the banking must face and revolve. This paper develops a factor system to explain how the borrower's risk is affected, and then establishes a risk monitoring model with AHP to pre-warn the banks how much the risk is.

Validation Techniques of the Intern Models for Credit Risk

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Bogdan Moinescu

2006-11-01

Full Text Available The new own funds adequacy device, officialy named “ International Convergence of Capital Measurement and Capital Standards”, describes the most important benchmark framework for micro-prudential supervision at the moment. The publication of the final text in June 2004, after five years of deliberations, represents the result of multiple analyses and comments provided by all interested parties, banking supervision authorities, associations and credit institutions. Provided the development of complex methodologies of risk measurement and management, on a large scale, by credit institutions, simple and static rules of the first accord have become less and less relevant during the last years. And so, the need of setting up a own funds adequacy framework which is much more risk sensitive and provides incentives to credit institutions on what concerns the improvement of risk measurement and management systems was met by approval of the Basel II Accord, which will, therefore, lead to the strengthening of financial stability. The revisal of the Accord was mainly focused on the increase of risk analysis and internal measurement and the changes made to their estimation allow banks to create their own methodological framework to calculate capital requirements (also considering each credit institution’ risk appetite.

Credit derivatives and risk management

OpenAIRE

Michael S. Gibson

2007-01-01

The striking growth of credit derivatives suggests that market participants find them to be useful tools for risk management. I illustrate the value of credit derivatives with three examples. A commercial bank can use credit derivatives to manage the risk of its loan portfolio. An investment bank can use credit derivatives to manage the risks it incurs when underwriting securities. An investor, such as an insurance company, asset manager, or hedge fund, can use credit derivatives to align its...

Modeling Cycle Dependence in Credit Insurance

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Anisa Caja

2014-03-01

Full Text Available Business and credit cycles have an impact on credit insurance, as they do on other businesses. Nevertheless, in credit insurance, the impact of the systemic risk is even more important and can lead to major losses during a crisis. Because of this, the insurer surveils and manages policies almost continuously. The management actions it takes limit the consequences of a downturning cycle. However, the traditional modeling of economic capital does not take into account this important feature of credit insurance. This paper proposes a model aiming to estimate future losses of a credit insurance portfolio, while taking into account the insurer’s management actions. The model considers the capacity of the credit insurer to take on less risk in the case of a cycle downturn, but also the inverse, in the case of a cycle upturn; so, losses are predicted with a more dynamic perspective. According to our results, the economic capital is over-estimated when not considering the management actions of the insurer.

Internal Model of Commercial Bank as an Instrument for Measuring Credit Risk of the Borrower in Relation to Financial Performance (Credit Scoring and Bankruptcy Models

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Belás Jaroslav

2011-12-01

Full Text Available Commercial banks generally use different methods and procedures for managing credit risk. The internal rating method in which the client has an important position in the process of granting credit provides a comprehensive assessment of client creditworthiness. The aim of this article is to analyze selected theoretical, methodological and practical aspects of internal rating models of commercial banks within the context of models that measures financial performance and to make a comparison of results of real - rating models which are used in the Czech Republic and Slovakia. The results of the chosen credit scoring and bankruptcy methods on selected companies from segments of small and medium-sized companies are presented.

Explaining the level of credit spreads: Option-implied jump risk premia in a firm value model

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Cremers, K.J.M.; Driessen, J.; Maenhout, P.

2008-01-01

We study whether option-implied jump risk premia can explain the high observed level of credit spreads. We use a structural jump-diffusion firm value model to assess the level of credit spreads generated by option-implied jump risk premia. Prices and returns of equity index and individual options

Credit risk in emerging markets Peruvian listed company

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Kurt Burneo Farfan

2017-07-01

Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to introduce the importance of the banking credit risk, the main elements that conform it and the main alternatives that are offered to access to a loan as well as a description of its measurement and management in the sector. There will be a general explanation of credit risk and the main parties involved in it. As the topic is developed it is going to be analyzed the lending process carried out by the banks as well as the quantitative and qualitative elements taken into account when taking a credit decision (The 5C’s of credit, credit scoring and models for quantification of losses for instance. Another thing to considerate is that Credit risk arises whenever a borrower is expecting to use future cash flows to pay a current debt. Also, the investors have the access for the information of a client and they are compensated for assuming credit risk by way of interest payments from the borrower or issuer of a debt obligation and the credit risk is a useful tool for the finance management. The Enterprise risk management in Peru changed in 2015 because the local regulator is in process to review the norm, including some aspects of corporate governance; these changes are not included in this research.

Credit Monitoring – a Core of Credit Risk Management: Theory and Experience

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Daiva Jurevičienė

2013-11-01

Full Text Available Purpose of the article: Purpose of the article is to identify credit monitoring as a keystone of credit risk management in banks. CRM is widely discussed in scientific literature and in reports of institutions undertaking credit risk or supervisory bodies. However majority of such investigations are based on implementation of numerous quantitative or qualitative methods used for credit risk assessment before granting a loan or for credit portfolio risk management. There is a lack of information or investigations made on estimation of the need of credit monitoring in credit risk management process. Scientific aim: Scientific aim is to structure the early warning signs that reflect the condition of credits. Methodology/methods: The paper is based on analysis and resumption of various scientific and professional articles related to organization of credit process in banks. It combines results of assessments of credit monitoring importance in credit risk management process made by theoretical studies as well as investigation of experts. Findings: Finding of the article is presentation of credit monitoring tools that should be applied for corporate (and individual clients via modification of original credit agreement. Conclusions: (limits, implications etc Conclusion of the article is that credit monitoring is a keystone in credit risk management process. The purpose of credit monitoring is to detect in time possible worsening of the loan and to react (make changes in loan agreement. The simplest tool for credit monitoring is to identify early warning signs in time that could be assorted into four groups: EWS of business environment; EWS with regard to management, EWS regarding collateral, EWS in financial analysis. Limitation of investigation is impossibility of evaluation of importance of monitoring process in practice except investigation of experts (employees directly responsible for credit business.

Closed-form pricing formula for exchange option with credit risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Geonwoo; Koo, Eunho

2016-01-01

In this paper, we study the valuation of Exchange option with credit risk. Since the over-the-counter (OTC) markets have grown rapidly in size, the counterparty default risk is very important and should be considered for the valuation of options. For modeling of credit risk, we use the structural model of Klein [13]. We derive the closed-form pricing formula for the price of the Exchange option with credit risk via the Mellin transform and provide the experiment results to illustrate the important properties of option with numerical graphs.

CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS IN THE MECHANISM OF REDISTRIBUTION OF CREDIT RISK

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O. Solodka

2015-03-01

Full Text Available In the article the economic nature and the functioning of CDS in terms of efficient redistribution of credit risk. The features of the dynamics of the nominal volume of the world market CDS, the gross market value and net market value of the CDS. Proved that more objective indicators of total credit risk shenerovanoho financial institutions are gross market value of the CDS and the net market value of CDS. We consider the variety and scope of CDS. Studied objectivity CDS valuation depending on the basis for valuation of CDS. In the mechanism of functioning CDS credit event as defined default “subject matter”, the features of conventional and technical default. Noted that a credit event for the use of CDS may also restructuring the company, bankruptcy or downgrade economic entity. In the article the types of CDS, including Basket Default Swap and First-of- Basket-to-Default Swap. We consider the application of CDS, namely hedge the credit risk of the underlying asset, which issued CDS; hedging credit risk of other assets by CDS; speculative trading in CDS. Depending on the particular basis for valuation of CDS, investigated objective valuation based on the value of CDS hedging; valuation CDS, based on the intensity of default; CDS valuation based on credit rating; valuation CDS, based on the value of the company. Proved that hedging through CDS will be effective only for the low correlation between the default of the underlying asset and counterparty default on swaps. It is proved that the accuracy and redutsyrovanyh structural models strongly depends on the “a long history of trading” underlying assets, asset must have a long history of trading, be the subject of in-depth analysis of a wide range of analysts and traders.

The Cross-Section of Credit Risk Premia and Equity Returns

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Friewald, Nils; Wagner, Christian; Zechner, Josef

2014-01-01

We explore the link between a firm's stock returns and credit risk using a simple insight from structural models following Merton (1974): risk premia on equity and credit instruments are related because all claims on assets must earn the same compensation per unit of risk. Consistent with theory......, we find that firms' stock returns increase with credit risk premia estimated from CDS spreads. Credit risk premia contain information not captured by physical or risk-neutral default probabilities alone. This sheds new light on the “distress puzzle”—the lack of a positive relation between equity...

The Cross-Section of Credit Risk Premia and Equity Returns

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Friewald, Niels; Wagner, Christian; Zechner, Josef

We explore the link between a firm's stock returns and its credit risk using a simple insight from structural models following Merton (1974): risk premia on equity and credit instruments are related because all claims on assets must earn the same compensation per unit of risk. Consistent...... with theory, we find that firms' stock returns increase with credit risk premia estimated from CDS spreads. Credit risk premia contain information not captured by physical or by risk-neutral default probabilities alone. This sheds new light on the "distress puzzle", i.e. the lack of a positive relation...

Asset correlations and credit portfolio risk: an empirical analysis

OpenAIRE

Düllmann, Klaus; Scheicher, Martin; Schmieder, Christian

2007-01-01

In credit risk modelling, the correlation of unobservable asset returns is a crucial component for the measurement of portfolio risk. In this paper, we estimate asset correlations from monthly time series of Moody's KMV asset values for around 2,000 European firms from 1996 to 2004. We compare correlation and value-atrisk (VaR) estimates in a one-factor or market model and a multi-factor or sector model. Our main finding is a complex interaction of credit risk correlations and default probabi...

12 CFR 704.6 - Credit risk management.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Credit risk management. 704.6 Section 704.6... CREDIT UNIONS § 704.6 Credit risk management. (a) Policies. A corporate credit union must operate according to a credit risk management policy that is commensurate with the investment risks and activities...

Credit risk management in banks from the perspective of jurisprudence

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sovilj Ranko

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The level, structure and nature of problem loans are a significant source of credit risk in the banking business, with the main reason for developing and increasing problem loans indicate the need for a comprehensive and strategic approach to solving them. In addition, the accumulation of problem loans in banks' balance sheets negatively affects the credit activity of banks and, consequently has a negative impact on economic activity, primarily due to reduced availability of possible sources of financing both for companies and for the population. One of the main reasons for the increased credit risk exposure of banks, especially before the outbreak of the subprime crisis, are less developed models for evaluation and measurement of credit risk, as well as a poor assessment of collateral. Therefore, this paper points out to the importance of careful management of credit risk as well as the need to develop appropriate methods and models for the early detection of problem loans and reducing exposure to credit risk. In the last part of the paper, the author provides an overview of the most important collaterals, with specific reference to domestic jurisprudence.

Quantile Forecasting for Credit Risk Management Using Possibly Mis-specified Hidden Markov Models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Banachewicz, K.P.; Lucas, A.

2008-01-01

Recent models for credit risk management make use of hidden Markov models (HMMs). HMMs are used to forecast quantiles of corporate default rates. Little research has been done on the quality of such forecasts if the underlying HMM is potentially misspecified. In this paper, we focus on

Portfolio Sensitivity Model for Analyzing Credit Risk Caused by Structural and Macroeconomic Changes

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Goran Klepac

2008-12-01

Full Text Available This paper proposes a new model for portfolio sensitivity analysis. The model is suitable for decision support in financial institutions, specifically for portfolio planning and portfolio management. The basic advantage of the model is the ability to create simulations for credit risk predictions in cases when we virtually change portfolio structure and/or macroeconomic factors. The model takes a holistic approach to portfolio management consolidating all organizational segments in the process such as marketing, retail and risk.

Overrated credit risk: three essays on credit risk in turbulent times

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bongaerts, D.G.J.

2010-01-01

Credit markets have shown a dramatic development at the start of the 21st century. Increased regulatory pressure on financial institutions has spurred the development of innovative products that allow for transfer of credit risk. These developments lay at the base of the largest financial crisis

76 FR 24089 - Credit Risk Retention

Science.gov (United States)

2011-04-29

... 17 CFR Part 246 Department of Housing and Urban Development 24 CFR Part 267 Credit Risk Retention... 2501-AD53 Credit Risk Retention AGENCIES: Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, Treasury (OCC..., Commission, FHFA, and HUD (the Agencies) are proposing rules to implement the credit risk retention...

Credit Risk Analysis Using Machine and Deep Learning Models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Peter Martey Addo

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Due to the advanced technology associated with Big Data, data availability and computing power, most banks or lending institutions are renewing their business models. Credit risk predictions, monitoring, model reliability and effective loan processing are key to decision-making and transparency. In this work, we build binary classifiers based on machine and deep learning models on real data in predicting loan default probability. The top 10 important features from these models are selected and then used in the modeling process to test the stability of binary classifiers by comparing their performance on separate data. We observe that the tree-based models are more stable than the models based on multilayer artificial neural networks. This opens several questions relative to the intensive use of deep learning systems in enterprises.

Counterparty Credit Risk on the Blockchain

OpenAIRE

Starlander, Isak

2017-01-01

Counterparty credit risk is present in trades offinancial obligations. This master thesis investigates the up and comingtechnology blockchain and how it could be used to mitigate counterparty creditrisk. The study intends to cover essentials of the mathematical model expectedloss, along with an introduction to the blockchain technology. After modellinga simple smart contract and using historical financial data, it was evidentthat there is a possible opportunity to reduce counterparty credit r...

Grading the probabilities of credit default risk for Malaysian listed companies by using the KMV-Merton model

Science.gov (United States)

Anuwar, Muhammad Hafidz; Jaffar, Maheran Mohd

2017-08-01

This paper provides an overview for the assessment of credit risk specific to the banks. In finance, risk is a term to reflect the potential of financial loss. The risk of default on loan may increase when a company does not make a payment on that loan when the time comes. Hence, this framework analyses the KMV-Merton model to estimate the probabilities of default for Malaysian listed companies. In this way, banks can verify the ability of companies to meet their loan commitments in order to overcome bad investments and financial losses. This model has been applied to all Malaysian listed companies in Bursa Malaysia for estimating the credit default probabilities of companies and compare with the rating given by the rating agency, which is RAM Holdings Berhad to conform to reality. Then, the significance of this study is a credit risk grade is proposed by using the KMV-Merton model for the Malaysian listed companies.

76 FR 34010 - Credit Risk Retention

Science.gov (United States)

2011-06-10

... 2501-AD53 Credit Risk Retention AGENCIES: Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, Treasury (OCC... credit risk retention requirements of section 15G of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as added by the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act (``Credit Risk NPR'' or ``proposed rule...

Assessment of credit risk based on fuzzy relations

Science.gov (United States)

Tsabadze, Teimuraz

2017-06-01

The purpose of this paper is to develop a new approach for an assessment of the credit risk to corporate borrowers. There are different models for borrowers' risk assessment. These models are divided into two groups: statistical and theoretical. When assessing the credit risk for corporate borrowers, statistical model is unacceptable due to the lack of sufficiently large history of defaults. At the same time, we cannot use some theoretical models due to the lack of stock exchange. In those cases, when studying a particular borrower given that statistical base does not exist, the decision-making process is always of expert nature. The paper describes a new approach that may be used in group decision-making. An example of the application of the proposed approach is given.

Risk of Credit Cooperatives: An analysis based on the profile of the cooperated

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

José Roberto de Souza Francisco

2012-12-01

Full Text Available This work has as purpose to analyze among the credit operations, those that generate larger breach of contract risk for the cooperative, with base in the profile of the cooperated, and to identify which the strategies can be pointed to avoid possible flaws in the next credit analyses. The work was divided in three stages. The first stage refers to the National Financial System, with the objective of demonstrating as in him the Cooperatives of Credit are inserted. The second stage approaches the System of Cooperative Credit, it presents that form is structured and his/her hierarchical level. The third stage treats of the System of Risk of Credit, in the which the risk, administration and the models of credit evaluation will be analyzed. It was verified that the most appropriate models for analysis of the Cooperatives of Credit are Credit Scoring Models and Credit Bureau, us which, through statistical techniques as the analysis discriminante and regression logistics, the characteristics of considered credits of larger breach of contract risk were demonstrated. The analysis based on identifying the "worse customer", because this generates larger breach of contract risk and it influences in the financial administration. It was ended that the most relevant variables to identify the breach of contract risk were the rude monthly income and the value liberated in the credit concession, because the largest concentration of breach of contract risk.

The impact of credit risk assessment on credit activity of commercial banks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ljubić Marijana

2015-01-01

Full Text Available As banks have great social responsibility and are a subject to a specific and extensive regulations, one of the being Basel, the authors of this paper focus on the impact of credit risk assessment on credit activity of commercial banks. The authors of this paper provide a standard for risk management and an insight into directions on how to manage credit risk in the most efficient way and how to assess credit rating of a borrower.

Credit default swaps and risk-shifting

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Campello, M.; Matta, R.

2012-01-01

Credit default swaps (CDSs) are thought to ease borrowing by protecting lenders against default. This paper develops a model of the demand for CDS when borrowers choose the riskiness of investment and verification is imperfect. The model shows that CDSs may lead to risk-shifting, increasing the

Quantifying Correlation Uncertainty Risk in Credit Derivatives Pricing

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Colin Turfus

2018-04-01

Full Text Available We propose a simple but practical methodology for the quantification of correlation risk in the context of credit derivatives pricing and credit valuation adjustment (CVA, where the correlation between rates and credit is often uncertain or unmodelled. We take the rates model to be Hull–White (normal and the credit model to be Black–Karasinski (lognormal. We summarise recent work furnishing highly accurate analytic pricing formulae for credit default swaps (CDS including with defaultable Libor flows, extending this to the situation where they are capped and/or floored. We also consider the pricing of contingent CDS with an interest rate swap underlying. We derive therefrom explicit expressions showing how the dependence of model prices on the uncertain parameter(s can be captured in analytic formulae that are readily amenable to computation without recourse to Monte Carlo or lattice-based computation. In so doing, we crucially take into account the impact on model calibration of the uncertain (or unmodelled parameters.

12 CFR 702.108 - Risk mitigation credit.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Risk mitigation credit. 702.108 Section 702.108... CORRECTIVE ACTION Net Worth Classification § 702.108 Risk mitigation credit. (a) Who may apply. A credit union may apply for a risk mitigation credit if on any of the current or three preceding effective dates...

A statistical modeling approach to build expert credit risk rating systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Waagepetersen, Rasmus

2010-01-01

This paper presents an efficient method for extracting expert knowledge when building a credit risk rating system. Experts are asked to rate a sample of counterparty cases according to creditworthiness. Next, a statistical model is used to capture the relation between the characteristics...... of a counterparty and the expert rating. For any counterparty the model can identify the rating, which would be agreed upon by the majority of experts. Furthermore, the model can quantify the concurrence among experts. The approach is illustrated by a case study regarding the construction of an application score...

KARAKTERISTIK PERUSAHAAN DAN CREDIT RISK

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Erma Wahdani Permanasari

2014-05-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this study is to determine the effect of characteristic of firm to the level of creditrisk. Characteristics of the firm is proxied by size, leverage, spread ownership, net profit margin,return on equity, industry type and scope of the company’s operations. Measurement of level creditrisk uses PT Pefindo bond rating. Annual reports of listed companies in PT Pefindo and IndonesiaStock Exchange (IDX 2010-2011 are collected based on purposive sampling techniques. Thepopulation is 238 companies. Sample used amounted to 84 companies. The analysis model usedin this study is multiple linear regression. Results of this study indicate that the level of corporatecredit risk in Indonesia is high because it is below the 50.00%. The test result of multiple regressionshowed that firm of characteristic affect the level of credit risk. Firm characteristics that affectthe level of credit risk are size, leverage, dispersion of ownership, net profit margin and returnon equity.

Determinants of credit risk - the case of Serbia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jović Željko

2017-01-01

Full Text Available This paper examines systemic and specific factors that increased the credit risk level in the Serbian banking sector between 2008 and 2014, by applying the vector autoregression model (VAR, logit and probit. Business cycle and RSD depreciation are the most important systemic determinants of credit risk in the corporate sector, while in the retail sector these determinants represent a deterioration of the business and financial situation, based on a rise in the unemployment rate and nonperforming loans, together with domestic currency depreciation and the effects of the solidarity tax. Banks that entered the crisis with a lower level of capital, higher level of portfolio concentration in their 50 biggest borrowers, and with restrictions on the owner supporting the bank by providing additional capital in the period of credit risk increase, have been more exposed to default and more inclined to overestimate their good assets in their reports. The influence of RSD depreciation and the economic interrelation of clients represent an increase in the credit risk level.

12 CFR 567.6 - Risk-based capital credit risk-weight categories.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 12 Banks and Banking 5 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Risk-based capital credit risk-weight... CAPITAL Regulatory Capital Requirements § 567.6 Risk-based capital credit risk-weight categories. (a) Risk...)(2) of this section), plus risk-weighted recourse obligations, direct credit substitutes, and certain...

IMPLICATIONS OF CREDIT RISK TRANSFER ON BANK PERFORMANCES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Victoria COCIUG

2015-07-01

Full Text Available The impact of the financial crisis has demonstrated the fragility of the banking sector and the need to implement new technologies that would allow not only insurance against the most important credit risk - credit risk, but development of lending segment. In such conditions, transfer of credit risk is an efficient and actual way to diversify the banks exposure for credit risk by the presence of those who are willing to take on some of this risk. Taking of credit risk can be achieved through credit derivatives, securitization and sale of loans, being selected the most advantageous technique for the bank. The current situation of the national banking sector requires solving the problem of bad loans, which, unfortunately, are increasing, by implementing new techniques for credit risk management according with EU directives.

Data mining for assessing the credit risk of local government units in Croatia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Silvija Vlah Jerić

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Over the past few decades, data mining techniques, especially artificial neural networks, have been used for modelling many real-world problems. This paper aims to test the performance of three methods: (1 an artificial neural network (ANN, (2 a hybrid artificial neural network and genetic algorithm approach (ANN-GA, and (2 the Tobit regression approach in determining the credit risk of local government units in Croatia. The evaluation of credit risk and prediction of debtor bankruptcy have long been regarded as an important topic in accounting and finance literature. In this research, credit risk is modelled under a regression approach unlike typical credit risk analysis, which is generally viewed as a classification problem. Namely, a standard evaluation of credit risk is not possible due to a lack of bankruptcy data. Thus, the credit risk of a local unit is approximated using the ratio of outstanding liabilities maturing in a given year to total expenditure of the local unit in the same period. The results indicate that the ANN-GA hybrid approach performs significantly better than the Tobit model by providing a significantly smaller average mean squared error. This work is beneficial to researchers and the government in evaluating a local government unit’s credit score.

Credit Risk Evaluation of Large Power Consumers Considering Power Market Transaction

Science.gov (United States)

Fulin, Li; Erfeng, Xu; ke, Sun; Dunnan, Liu; Shuyi, Shen

2018-03-01

Large power users will participate in power market in various forms after power system reform. Meanwhile, great importance has always attached to the construction of the credit system in power industry. Due to the difference between the awareness of performance and the ability to perform, credit risk of power customer will emerge accordingly. Therefore, it is critical to evaluate credit risk of large power customers in the new situation of power market. Firstly, this paper constructs index system of credit risk of large power customers, and establishes evaluation model of interval number and AHP-entropy weight method.

49 CFR 260.15 - Credit risk premium.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... 49 Transportation 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Credit risk premium. 260.15 Section 260.15... REHABILITATION AND IMPROVEMENT FINANCING PROGRAM Overview § 260.15 Credit risk premium. (a) Where available... pay to the Administrator a Credit Risk Premium adequate to cover that portion of the subsidy cost not...

Systematic and Idiosyncratic Default Risk in Synthetic Credit Markets

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Feldhütter, Peter; Nielsen, Mads Stenbo

2012-01-01

We present a new estimation approach that allows us to extract from spreads in synthetic credit markets the contribution of systematic and idiosyncratic default risk to total default risk. Using an extensive dataset of 90,600 credit default swap and collateralized debt obligation (CDO) tranche...... spreads on the North American Investment Grade CDX index, we conduct an empirical analysis of an intensity-based model for correlated defaults. Our results show that systematic default risk is an explosive process with low volatility, while idiosyncratic default risk is more volatile but less explosive...

Modelling the predictive performance of credit scoring

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Shi-Wei Shen

2013-07-01

Research purpose: The purpose of this empirical paper was to examine the predictive performance of credit scoring systems in Taiwan. Motivation for the study: Corporate lending remains a major business line for financial institutions. However, in light of the recent global financial crises, it has become extremely important for financial institutions to implement rigorous means of assessing clients seeking access to credit facilities. Research design, approach and method: Using a data sample of 10 349 observations drawn between 1992 and 2010, logistic regression models were utilised to examine the predictive performance of credit scoring systems. Main findings: A test of Goodness of fit demonstrated that credit scoring models that incorporated the Taiwan Corporate Credit Risk Index (TCRI, micro- and also macroeconomic variables possessed greater predictive power. This suggests that macroeconomic variables do have explanatory power for default credit risk. Practical/managerial implications: The originality in the study was that three models were developed to predict corporate firms’ defaults based on different microeconomic and macroeconomic factors such as the TCRI, asset growth rates, stock index and gross domestic product. Contribution/value-add: The study utilises different goodness of fits and receiver operator characteristics during the examination of the robustness of the predictive power of these factors.

Leading internal and external sources of credit risk in the top South African banks

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Tankiso Moloi

2014-09-01

Full Text Available This paper aimed at identifying the leading credit risk indicators in the South African banking context as well as the development of an integrated leading credit risk indicator model. A content analysis was used as a data extraction methodology and structural equation modelling was used as a data analysis methodology. The results obtained indicated that utilising the structural equation modelling, gross savings, and prime overdraft rates, number of judgements, business insolvencies and unemployment rates were formulated as leading economic and market (external indicators of credit risk in the South African banking context. Similarly, utilising the principal component analysis, bank asset quality, bank asset concentration as well as bank trading and hedging activities were formulated as leading bank specific (internal indicators of credit risk in the South African banking context. The Integrated Leading Credit Risk Indicator Model (ICRIM was formulated utilising the accepted leading credit risk indicators. The ICRIM parameters were benchmarked against the generally accepted fit indices such as the RMSEA, comparative fit (baseline comparison as well as the Hoelter and its results output were found to be consistent with these generally accepted fit indices

25 CFR 140.23 - Credit at trader's risk.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... 25 Indians 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Credit at trader's risk. 140.23 Section 140.23 Indians....23 Credit at trader's risk. Credit given Indians will be at the trader's own risk, as no assistance... accept pawns or pledges of personal property by Indians to obtain credit or loans. ...

Credit Rationing Effects of Credit Value-at-Risk

NARCIS (Netherlands)

J.F. Slijkerman; D.J.C. Smant (David); C.G. de Vries (Casper)

2004-01-01

textabstractBanks provide risky loans to firms which have superior information regarding the quality of their projects. Due to asymmetric information the banks face the risk of adverse selection. Credit Value-at-Risk (CVaR) regulation counters the problem of low quality, i.e. high risk, loans and

Construction and Application Research of Isomap-RVM Credit Assessment Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Guangrong Tong

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Credit assessment is the basis and premise of credit risk management systems. Accurate and scientific credit assessment is of great significance to the operational decisions of shareholders, corporate creditors, and management. Building a good and reliable credit assessment model is key to credit assessment. Traditional credit assessment models are constructed using the support vector machine (SVM combined with certain traditional dimensionality reduction algorithms. When constructing such a model, the dimensionality reduction algorithms are first applied to reduce the dimensions of the samples, so as to prevent the correlation of the samples’ characteristic index from being too high. Then, machine learning of the samples will be conducted using the SVM, in order to carry out classification assessment. To further improve the accuracy of credit assessment methods, this paper has introduced more cutting-edge algorithms, applied isometric feature mapping (Isomap for dimensionality reduction, and used the relevance vector machine (RVM for credit classification. It has constructed an Isomap-RVM model and used it to conduct financial analysis of China's listed companies. The empirical analysis shows that the credit assessment accuracy of the Isomap-RVM model is significantly higher than that of the Isomap-SVM model and slightly higher than that of the PCA-RVM model. It can correctly identify the credit risks of listed companies.

Credit risk migration rates modeling as open systems: A micro-simulation approach

Science.gov (United States)

Landini, S.; Uberti, M.; Casellina, S.

2018-05-01

The last financial crisis of 2008 stimulated the development of new Regulatory Criteria (commonly known as Basel III) that pushed the banking activity to become more prudential, either in the short and the long run. As well known, in 2014 the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) promulgated the new International Financial Reporting Standard 9 (IFRS 9) for financial instruments that will become effective in January 2018. Since the delayed recognition of credit losses on loans was identified as a weakness in existing accounting standards, the IASB has introduced an Expected Loss model that requires more timely recognition of credit losses. Specifically, new standards require entities to account both for expected losses from when the impairments are recognized for the first time and for full loan lifetime; moreover, a clear preference toward forward looking models is expressed. In this new framework, it is necessary a re-thinking of the widespread standard theoretical approach on which the well known prudential model is founded. The aim of this paper is then to define an original methodological approach to migration rates modeling for credit risk which is innovative respect to the standard method from the point of view of a bank as well as in a regulatory perspective. Accordingly, the proposed not-standard approach considers a portfolio as an open sample allowing for entries, migrations of stayers and exits as well. While being consistent with the empirical observations, this open-sample approach contrasts with the standard closed-sample method. In particular, this paper offers a methodology to integrate the outcomes of the standard closed-sample method within the open-sample perspective while removing some of the assumptions of the standard method. Three main conclusions can be drawn in terms of economic capital provision: (a) based on the Markovian hypothesis with a-priori absorbing state at default, the standard closed-sample method is to be abandoned

Credit risk management in the power sector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Allen, D.

2002-01-01

Deregulation of the electric power industry has the potential to put power businesses at market risk particularly when the value of an asset or liability will change with market movements. Market risk gives rise to credit risk where a contract cannot be fulfilled. This presentation describes how credit risks can be identified and measured. Most practitioners use some variant of value-at-risk (VAR) technology for measuring market risk. Under this approach, risk is determined by the volatility implied by the market. Volatility of electricity prices and natural gas prices has increased significantly in Alberta in recent years. The consequence is an increase in both market and credit risk. The author described the difference between the two risks and their significance. An overview of credit risk management with derivatives, an over-the counter contract, was also presented. The author also discusses issue of protection buyers in the event of a failed contract. 9 figs

Internal controls and credit risk relationship among banks in Europe

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ellis Kofi Akwaa-Sekyi

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Purpose: The study purport to investigate the effectiveness of internal control mechanisms, investigate whether evidence of agency problem is found among banks in Europe and determine how internal controls affect credit risk. Design/methodology/approach: Panel data from 91 banks from 23 European Union countries were studied from 2008-2014. Hausman’s specification test suggest the use of fixed effects estimation technique of GLS. Quantitatively modelled data on 15 variables covering elements of internal controls, objectives of internal controls, agency problem, bank and country specific variables were used. Findings: There is still high credit risk in spite of measures being implemented by the European Central Bank. Banks have individual entity factors that increase or decrease credit risk. The study finds effective internal control systems because objectives of internal controls are achieved and significantly determine credit risk. Agency problem is confirmed due to significant positive relation with credit risk. There is significant effect of internal controls on credit risk with specific variables as risk assessment, return on average risk weighted assets, institutional ownership, bank size, inflation, interest rate and GDP. Research limitations/implications: Missing data prevented the use of strongly balanced panel. The lack of flexibility with using quantitative approach did not allow further scrutiny of the nature of variables. However, statistical tests were acceptable for the model used. The study has implications for management and owners of banks to be warry of agency problem because that provides incentive for reckless high risk transactions that may benefit the agent than the principal. Management must engage in actions that profile the company better and enhances value maximization. Rising default risk has tendency to impair corporate image leading to loss of reputational capital. Originality/value: The study provides the use of

Credit scores, cardiovascular disease risk, and human capital.

Science.gov (United States)

Israel, Salomon; Caspi, Avshalom; Belsky, Daniel W; Harrington, HonaLee; Hogan, Sean; Houts, Renate; Ramrakha, Sandhya; Sanders, Seth; Poulton, Richie; Moffitt, Terrie E

2014-12-02

Credit scores are the most widely used instruments to assess whether or not a person is a financial risk. Credit scoring has been so successful that it has expanded beyond lending and into our everyday lives, even to inform how insurers evaluate our health. The pervasive application of credit scoring has outpaced knowledge about why credit scores are such useful indicators of individual behavior. Here we test if the same factors that lead to poor credit scores also lead to poor health. Following the Dunedin (New Zealand) Longitudinal Study cohort of 1,037 study members, we examined the association between credit scores and cardiovascular disease risk and the underlying factors that account for this association. We find that credit scores are negatively correlated with cardiovascular disease risk. Variation in household income was not sufficient to account for this association. Rather, individual differences in human capital factors—educational attainment, cognitive ability, and self-control—predicted both credit scores and cardiovascular disease risk and accounted for ∼45% of the correlation between credit scores and cardiovascular disease risk. Tracing human capital factors back to their childhood antecedents revealed that the characteristic attitudes, behaviors, and competencies children develop in their first decade of life account for a significant portion (∼22%) of the link between credit scores and cardiovascular disease risk at midlife. We discuss the implications of these findings for policy debates about data privacy, financial literacy, and early childhood interventions.

Credit risk identification and suggestions of electricity market

Science.gov (United States)

He, Chuan; Wang, Haichao; Chen, Zhongyuan; Hao, Yuxing; Jiang, Hailong; Qian, Hanhan; Wang, Meibao

2018-03-01

The power industry has a long history of credit problems, and the power industry has credit problems such as power users defaulting on electricity bills before the new electricity reform. With the reform of the power system, the credit problems in the power industry will be more complicated. How to effectively avoid the risk factors existing in the course of market operation and how to safeguard the fairness and standardization of market operation is an urgent problem to be solved. This paper first describes the credit risk in power market, and analyzes the components of credit risk identification in power market, puts forward suggestions on power market risk management.

Credit Risk Management in Chinese Banking Industry

OpenAIRE

Zhang, Lei

2006-01-01

Abstract Credit risk is by far the most important risk faced by banks, and it influences the bank profitability and its long-term operation significantly. Well management on credit risk can be a competitive advantage for banks in the competitive banking industry. Chinese banks suffer from serious financial fragility manifested by high proportions of NPLs and low capital adequacy ratios (Bonin and Huang, 2001). This dissertation examines the real credit performance of Chinese banks ba...

Using non-performing loan ratios as default rates in the estimation of credit losses and macroeconomic credit risk stress testing: A case from Turkey

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Guray Kucukkocaoglu

2016-02-01

Full Text Available In this study, inspired by the Credit Portfolio View approach, we intend to develop an econometric credit risk model to estimate credit loss distributions of Turkish Banking System under baseline and stress macro scenarios, by substituting default rates with non-performing loan (NPL ratios. Since customer number based historical default rates are not available for the whole Turkish banking system’s credit portfolio, we used NPL ratios as dependent variable instead of default rates, a common practice for many countries where historical default rates are not available. Although, there are many problems in using NPL ratios as default rates such as underestimating portfolio losses as a result of totally non-homogeneous total credit portfolios and transferring non-performing loans to asset management companies from banks’ balance sheets, our aim is to underline and limit some ignored problems using accounting based NPL ratios as default rates in macroeconomic credit risk modeling. Developed models confirm the strong statistical relationship between systematic component of credit risk and macroeconomic variables in Turkey. Stress test results also are compatible with the past experiences

Study on the Impact of the Private Credit Excess on the Credit Risk under the Massive Capital Inflows Risk under the Massive Capital Inflows

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jong-Hee Kim

2016-09-01

Full Text Available By examining the relationship between private credit growth and the possibility of credit risk while focusing on international capital in 21 countries over the period 2000:1Q-2015:2Q, this paper shows that the impact of private credit growth on credit risk is apparent under the high ratio of capital inflows, and its impact on credit risk in the seven Asian countries is even stronger. And the possibility of credit risk caused by private credit is mainly coming from portfolio inflows rather than direct inflows. Finally, portfolio inflows strengthen the positive relationship between credit excess and credit risk in Asian countries, and this trend is seen more in these after the global financial crisis. Taken together, the stronger positive relationship between credit excess and credit risk can be strengthen under the massive portfolio inflows in particular in the seven Asian countries such as Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand.

49 CFR 260.17 - Credit risk premium analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... 49 Transportation 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Credit risk premium analysis. 260.17 Section 260... Financial Assistance § 260.17 Credit risk premium analysis. (a) When Federal appropriations are not available to cover the total subsidy cost, the Administrator will determine the Credit Risk Premium...

Sovereign Credit Risk, Liquidity and ECB Intervention

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pelizzon, Loriana; Subrahmanyam, Marti G.; Tomio, Davide

This paper explores the interaction between credit risk and liquidity, in the context of the intervention by the European Central Bank (ECB), during the Euro-zone crisis. The laboratory for our investigation is the Italian sovereign bond market, the largest in the Euro-zone. We use a unique data...... between changes in Italian sovereign credit risk and liquidity in the secondary bond market, conditional on the level of credit risk, measured by the Italian sovereign credit default swap (CDS) spread. We demonstrate the existence of a threshold of 500 basis points (bp) in the CDS spread, above which...... there is a structural change in this relationship. Other global systemic factors also a ffect market liquidity, but the speci c credit risk of primary dealers plays only a modest role in a ffecting market liquidity, especially under conditions of stress. Moreover, the data indicate that there is a clear structural...

Dynamic Bayesian modeling for risk prediction in credit operations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Borchani, Hanen; Martinez, Ana Maria; Masegosa, Andres

2015-01-01

Our goal is to do risk prediction in credit operations, and as data is collected continuously and reported on a monthly basis, this gives rise to a streaming data classification problem. Our analysis reveals some practical problems that have not previously been thoroughly analyzed in the context...

12 CFR 932.4 - Credit risk capital requirement.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 12 Banks and Banking 7 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Credit risk capital requirement. 932.4 Section... CAPITAL STANDARDS FEDERAL HOME LOAN BANK CAPITAL REQUIREMENTS § 932.4 Credit risk capital requirement. (a) General requirement. Each Bank's credit risk capital requirement shall be equal to the sum of the Bank's...

Exit and Failure of Credit Unions in Brazil: A Risk Analysis

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Flávio Leonel de Carvalho

2015-04-01

Full Text Available This study aims to investigate the factors that affect the market exit of Brazilian singular credit unions from 1995 to 2009; it also identifies and lists the determinants of various types of market exits and analyzes whether profitability is a significant factor for credit union survival. This study was conducted with accounting data provided by the Central Bank of Brazil, which derives only from individual cooperatives, i.e. singular credit unions. Quarterly financial statements from these credit unions that were active from 1995 to the second quarter of 2009 were employed, totaling 71,325 observations for 1,929 credit unions. Based on survival and the model of competing risks (such as the Cox, Exponential, Weibull, Gompertz, and Competing Risk models, the results show that there is no statistical evidence to ensure a correlation between profitability and credit union survival. The results also suggest that the size of credit unions plays a key role in their survival and longevity and that their funding and investment management are related to their survival and risk of market exit. In conclusion, the results confirm the initial idea that the duality inherent to credit unions - cooperative principles versus economic efficiency - might influence the stability, survival, and longevity of these institutions. Such results may also imply that a credit union embracing the rationale of a private bank will become more estranged from its members, something which will hinder its future operations and increase the likelihood of its exit from the market.

CREDIT RISK MANAGEMENT IN THE COMMERCIAL BANKS IN ROMANIA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mihaela SUDACEVSCHI

2014-04-01

Full Text Available Credit risk is one of the main risks faced by a bank. This kind of risk is generated by the crediting activity of the clients. To manage the credit risk, banks should identify the sources of the risk and to monitor their exposures. These activities mean a better knowledge of the existing and potential clients and their financial situations, by implementing new scoring methods. Also, to avoid the credit risk or to reduce losses, the banks could increase the value of guarantees required in regular credit activities, their periodically reassessment and the periodical analysis of the ability of customers to generate cash flows (for corporate clients and get constant income (for retail customers to provide repayment of credits. This paper aims to prevent and to analyze several measures of credit risk management and it assume that banks on the Romanian banking market and to identify some indices used for customers analysis.

A random matrix approach to credit risk.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michael C Münnix

Full Text Available We estimate generic statistical properties of a structural credit risk model by considering an ensemble of correlation matrices. This ensemble is set up by Random Matrix Theory. We demonstrate analytically that the presence of correlations severely limits the effect of diversification in a credit portfolio if the correlations are not identically zero. The existence of correlations alters the tails of the loss distribution considerably, even if their average is zero. Under the assumption of randomly fluctuating correlations, a lower bound for the estimation of the loss distribution is provided.

A random matrix approach to credit risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Münnix, Michael C; Schäfer, Rudi; Guhr, Thomas

2014-01-01

We estimate generic statistical properties of a structural credit risk model by considering an ensemble of correlation matrices. This ensemble is set up by Random Matrix Theory. We demonstrate analytically that the presence of correlations severely limits the effect of diversification in a credit portfolio if the correlations are not identically zero. The existence of correlations alters the tails of the loss distribution considerably, even if their average is zero. Under the assumption of randomly fluctuating correlations, a lower bound for the estimation of the loss distribution is provided.

Pricing Chinese Convertible Bonds with Dynamic Credit Risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ping Li

2014-01-01

Full Text Available To price convertible bonds more precisely, least squares Monte Carlo (LSM method is used in this paper for its advantage in handling the dependence of derivatives on the path, and dynamic credit risk is used to replace the fixed one to make the value of convertible bonds reflect the real credit risk. In the empirical study, we price convertible bonds based on static credit risk and dynamic credit risk, respectively. Empirical results indicate that the ICBC convertible bond has been overpriced, resulting from the underestimation of credit risk. In addition, when there is an issue of dividend, the conversion price will change in China's convertible bonds, while it does not change in the international convertible bonds. So we also empirically study the difference between the convertible bond's prices by assuming whether the conversion price changes or not.

Credit risk assessment model for Jordanian commercial banks: Neural scoring approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hussain Ali Bekhet

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Despite the increase in the number of non-performing loans and competition in the banking market, most of the Jordanian commercial banks are reluctant to use data mining tools to support credit decisions. Artificial neural networks represent a new family of statistical techniques and promising data mining tools that have been used successfully in classification problems in many domains. This paper proposes two credit scoring models using data mining techniques to support loan decisions for the Jordanian commercial banks. Loan application evaluation would improve credit decision effectiveness and control loan office tasks, as well as save analysis time and cost. Both accepted and rejected loan applications, from different Jordanian commercial banks, were used to build the credit scoring models. The results indicate that the logistic regression model performed slightly better than the radial basis function model in terms of the overall accuracy rate. However, the radial basis function was superior in identifying those customers who may default.

Effect of internal controls on credit risk among listed Spanish banks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ellis Kofi Akwaa-Sekyi

2016-02-01

Full Text Available Purpose: The paper examines the effectiveness of internal control systems, explores the exposure of Spanish banks to the dangers of default as a result of internal control systems and establishes a relationship between internal controls and credit risk. Design/Methodology/Approach: Quantitative research approach is used to test hypotheses on the relationship between internal controls and credit risk among listed banks in Spain. Data from Bankscope and company websites from 2004-2013 were used. Generalized Least Squares (random effect econometric estimation technique was used for the model. Findings: We find that internal control systems are in place but their effectiveness cannot be guaranteed. This exposes Spanish listed banks to serious default situations. There is significant effect of internal controls on credit risk especially the control environment, risk management, control activities and monitoring. The non-disclosure of material internal control weakness is a contributory factor to the ineffective internal control systems. There is however a perceived board ineffectiveness which does not augur well for effective internal control systems. Board characteristics for Spanish banks confirm the agency theory. Research Limitations and Implications: Data unavailability for certain years, variables and many inactive banks did not permit a larger sample size than expected. The use of quantitative variables lacks flexibility. Practical Implications: Bank management will find the work useful to ensure strict enforcement of internal control mechanisms and see it as both credit risk and operational risk issues. Central bank should hurry to compel banks to disclose material internal control weakness as provided in the reviewed COSO framework. Social Implications: Ineffective internal controls lead to credit risks, bank closure and loss of investments. Society suffers a lot from such losses and contagion. Disclosure of material internal control

Geographically Weighted Logistic Regression Applied to Credit Scoring Models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pedro Henrique Melo Albuquerque

Full Text Available Abstract This study used real data from a Brazilian financial institution on transactions involving Consumer Direct Credit (CDC, granted to clients residing in the Distrito Federal (DF, to construct credit scoring models via Logistic Regression and Geographically Weighted Logistic Regression (GWLR techniques. The aims were: to verify whether the factors that influence credit risk differ according to the borrower’s geographic location; to compare the set of models estimated via GWLR with the global model estimated via Logistic Regression, in terms of predictive power and financial losses for the institution; and to verify the viability of using the GWLR technique to develop credit scoring models. The metrics used to compare the models developed via the two techniques were the AICc informational criterion, the accuracy of the models, the percentage of false positives, the sum of the value of false positive debt, and the expected monetary value of portfolio default compared with the monetary value of defaults observed. The models estimated for each region in the DF were distinct in their variables and coefficients (parameters, with it being concluded that credit risk was influenced differently in each region in the study. The Logistic Regression and GWLR methodologies presented very close results, in terms of predictive power and financial losses for the institution, and the study demonstrated viability in using the GWLR technique to develop credit scoring models for the target population in the study.

The impact of ownership structure on bank credit risk: Evidence from Bangladesh

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Niluthpaul SARKER

2017-05-01

Full Text Available This study investigates the impact of ownership structure of Commercial Banks on bank credit risk in an emerging market like Bangladesh. Prais Winten regression model is applied to a sample of 32 commercial banks from the year of 2000 to 2014 with 390 observations. The result reveals that National Commercial Banks, depositors’ influence, shareholders’ influence, liquidity and profitability are negatively associated with credit risk whereas lag risk has a significant positive impact on credit risk. The effect of banks ownership structure on credit risk divulges a delicate governance of the banking sector. The study conveys a momentous implication of research findings in the national economy. It also found that national commercial banks have the tendency of violating the rules and absorbing heavy risk. It suggests that policy maker should rethink about the government ownership of banks. Therefore the denationalization or reducing government ownership structure is highly recommended.

Integration Of Company’s Financial Data In Credit Risk Assessment Using A Multidimensional Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maria – Monica Haralambie

2015-12-01

Full Text Available This paper is a detailed overview from theoretical and practical perspectives of a scoring system used by a financial institution in assessing the credit risk of a corporate client. The objective of this research was to demonstrate the importance of a scoring system for a credit institution when approving a loan application of a potential borrower. The complexity and importance of the topic makes it a subject of high interest for all type of credit institutions. We believe that through this work we were able to bring into discussion only a part of the specific issues related to credit risk management scoring systems and we believe that this work represents a support for future research

PROBLEMS AND OBSTACLES IN CREDIT RISK MANAGEMENT IN INDIAN PUBLIC SECTOR BANKS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

RENU ARORA

2014-10-01

Full Text Available This paper evaluates the credit risk management (CRM practices of Indian public sector banks in grant of commercial loans to find the grey areas which need review and restructuring to improve banks’ asset quality. Based on literature review, a conceptual model of credit risk management systems for commercial loans, of Indian public sector banks, has been developed. This model has been used to underline the problems areas and obstacles in credit risk management through comparison of large and small banks. The empirical comparison of CRM practices of Indian public sector banks has resulted into emergence of various grey areas, like insufficient training, data management, inappropriate IT support, system disintegration, inconsistent rating approaches, which need immediate attention and if tackled properly, can reduce their non-performing assets.

Credit Risk Management. A study on risk integration in the bank lending process.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Sleddens, Linda Elsa Wilhelmina

2011-01-01

Credit risk management has been a topic much written about in the last decade. Substantial credit risk losses can undermine the stability of the bank. Both banks and national bank supervisors have realized the need to invest in credit risk management. Partly driven by regulations such as the Basel

Companies Credit Risk Assessment Methods for Investment Decision Making

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dovilė Peškauskaitė

2017-06-01

Full Text Available As the banks have tightened lending requirements, companies look for alternative sources of external funding. One of such is bonds issue. Unfortunately, corporate bonds issue as a source of funding is rare in Lithuania. This occurs because companies face with a lack of information, investors fear to take on credit risk. Credit risk is defined as a borrower’s failure to meet its obligation. Investors, in order to avoid credit risk, have to assess the state of the companies. The goal of the article is to determine the most informative methods of credit risk assessment. The article summarizes corporate lending sources, analyzes corporate default causes and credit risk assessment methods. The study based on the SWOT analysis shows that investors before making an investment decision should evaluate both the business risk,using qualitative method CAMPARI, and the financial risk, using financial ratio analysis.

THE CREDIT AND CREDIT RISK MANAGEMENT DURING THE CRISIS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chitan Gheorghe

2012-03-01

Full Text Available Considering the importance of credit risk management to ensure the financial system stability,the paper presents financial and real sector interaction highlighting that credit growth based on increase of creditdemand, of income, of assets prices, of currency availability, the interest rate differential between countries andrelaxation of regulatory framework, leaves banks more vulnerable to subsequent downturn in economic activity andasset prices. It also outlines the steps taken or those I think that should be implemented in terms of improving creditrisk management, implementation of regulatory measures to limit credit expansion, enforcing the regulatoryrequirements for covering the expected and unexpected losses, introduction of new surveillance tools aimed to leadto a more resilient financial system.

12 CFR 955.3 - Required credit risk-sharing structure.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 12 Banks and Banking 7 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Required credit risk-sharing structure. 955.3...-BALANCE SHEET ITEMS ACQUIRED MEMBER ASSETS § 955.3 Required credit risk-sharing structure. (a... conducting a rating review of the asset or pool of assets in a securitization transaction. (b) Credit risk...

Directions of coordination of financial accounting standards with principles for credit risk management in banks

OpenAIRE

Voloshyn, Ihor

2014-01-01

This paper examines ways of overcoming inconsistencies between IFRS and modern concepts of credit risk management, namely, expected loss model and risk-adjusted loan pricing. Also, it is considered an issue of acceptable levels of concentration risk in bank credit portfolio.

Handling Uncertainty in Social Lending Credit Risk Prediction with a Choquet Fuzzy Integral Model

OpenAIRE

Namvar, Anahita; Naderpour, Mohsen

2018-01-01

As one of the main business models in the financial technology field, peer-to-peer (P2P) lending has disrupted traditional financial services by providing an online platform for lending money that has remarkably reduced financial costs. However, the inherent uncertainty in P2P loans can result in huge financial losses for P2P platforms. Therefore, accurate risk prediction is critical to the success of P2P lending platforms. Indeed, even a small improvement in credit risk prediction would be o...

76 FR 13902 - Fair Credit Reporting Risk-Based Pricing Regulations

Science.gov (United States)

2011-03-15

... TRADE COMMISSION 16 CFR Parts 640 and 698 RIN R411009 Fair Credit Reporting Risk-Based Pricing... respective risk-based pricing rules to require disclosure of credit scores and information relating to credit scores in risk-based pricing notices if a credit score of the consumer is used in setting the material...

Credit risk in liberalised power and natural gas markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lapson, E.; Hunter, Richard

1999-01-01

This chapter examines the relationship of market structure and price volatility to credit risk, and discusses credit risk and energy market structures, credit risk in bilateral contracts, market evolution, and the effect of liberalising power markets on credit quality considering the power liberalising in Europe, the pace of change, and the new risks and opportunities. The market structure in Europe is addressed, and the EU Directive 96/92/EC, structural requirements, access for new generation capacity, and transmission costs are considered. Details of the liberalisation in the UK electricity market, the German market, and the Nord Pool are given, and the best credit practices in bilateral markets, and the quantifying of expected credit loss are described. Panels highlighting the need to know your counterparty in evaluating and negotiating bilateral contracts, and lessons learnt from the June 1998 US power price spike are presented

Use of Modern Methods of Credit Portfolio Risk Management in Commercial Banks of Russian Federation

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Dmitrii S. Melnyk

2013-01-01

Full Text Available The article deals with the structure and factors of credit portfolio risk, analyses existing models of portfolio risk assessment and develops recommendations on the implementation of risk management adapted methods, presents recommendations on the optimization of the approach to credit risk minimization in Russian banking system.

Credit securitization and credit derivatives: Financial instruments and the credit risk management of middle market commercial loan portfolios

OpenAIRE

Henke, Sabine; Burghof, Hans-Peter; Rudolph, Bernd

1998-01-01

Banks increasingly recognize the need to measure and manage the credit risk of their loans on a portfolio basis. We address the subportfolio "middle market". Due to their specific lending policy for this market segment it is an important task for banks to systematically identify regional and industrial credit concentrations and reduce the detected concentrations through diversification. In recent years, the development of markets for credit securitization and credit derivatives has provided n...

Insurability of export credit risks

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Alsem, K.J.; Antufjew, J.; Huizingh, K.R.E.; Koning, Ruud H.; Sterken, E.; Woltil, M.

2003-01-01

Firms exporting their goods and services abroad face risks that are different from the risks faced by firms who do not engage in international trade. It is common practice to allow the receiving party to pay in instalments. The exporting firm faces credit risk, but as in most countries, Dutch firms

A dynamic approach merging network theory and credit risk techniques to assess systemic risk in financial networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Petrone, Daniele; Latora, Vito

2018-04-03

The interconnectedness of financial institutions affects instability and credit crises. To quantify systemic risk we introduce here the PD model, a dynamic model that combines credit risk techniques with a contagion mechanism on the network of exposures among banks. A potential loss distribution is obtained through a multi-period Monte Carlo simulation that considers the probability of default (PD) of the banks and their tendency of defaulting in the same time interval. A contagion process increases the PD of banks exposed toward distressed counterparties. The systemic risk is measured by statistics of the loss distribution, while the contribution of each node is quantified by the new measures PDRank and PDImpact. We illustrate how the model works on the network of the European Global Systemically Important Banks. For a certain range of the banks' capital and of their assets volatility, our results reveal the emergence of a strong contagion regime where lower default correlation between banks corresponds to higher losses. This is the opposite of the diversification benefits postulated by standard credit risk models used by banks and regulators who could therefore underestimate the capital needed to overcome a period of crisis, thereby contributing to the financial system instability.

Credit Default Swap Valuation with Counterparty Risk

OpenAIRE

Leung, Seng Yuen; Kwok, Yue Kuen

2005-01-01

Using the reduced form framework with inter-dependent default correlation, we perform valuation of credit default swap with counterparty risk. The inter-dependent default risk structure between the protection buyer, protection seller and the reference entity in a credit default swap are characterized by their correlated default intensities, where the default intensity of one party increases when the default of another party occurs. We explore how settlement risk and replacement cost affect th...

Sovereign Credit Risk, Liquidity, and European Central Bank Intervention

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pelizzon, Loriana; Subrahmanyam, Marti G.; Tomio, Davide

2016-01-01

We examine the dynamic relation between credit risk and liquidity in the Italian sovereign bond market during the eurozone crisis and the subsequent European Central Bank (ECB) interventions. Credit risk drives the liquidity of the market. A 10% change in the credit default swap (CDS) spread leads...... to a 13% change in the bid-ask spread, the relation being stronger when the CDS spread exceeds 500 basis points. The Long-Term Refinancing Operations of the ECB weakened the sensitivity of market makers’ liquidity provision to credit risk, highlighting the importance of funding liquidity measures...

Liquidity and credit risk in the emerging financial markets

OpenAIRE

Amir Saadaoui, Younes Boujelbene

2014-01-01

In this paper, we examine the relationship between liquidity, liquidity risk and credit risk in emerging sovereign bonds after the subprime crisis period. In our study, we concentrate in the effect of liquidity and credit risk in the problem of liquidity and in the emerging bond market. The presence of control variables, asymmetric information, amount outstanding, coupon, age and interest rate, assist to more explain this relationship. To explain the role of liquidity and credit risk in the p...

Portfolio Allocation Subject to Credit Risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rogerio de Deus Oliveira

2003-12-01

Full Text Available Credit Risk is an important dimension to be considered in the risk management procedures of financial institutions. Is a particularly useful in emerging markets where default rates on bank loan products are usually high. It is usually calculated through highly costly Monte Carlo simulations which consider different stochastic factors driving the uncertainly associated to the borrowers liabilities. In this paper, under some restrictions, we drive closed form formulas for the probability distributions of default rates of bank loans products involving a big number of clients. This allows us to quickly obtain the credit risk of such products. Moreover, using these probability distributions, we solve the problem of optimal portfolio allocation under default risk.

Fundamental determinants of credit default risk for European and American banks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Patrycja Chodnicka-Jaworska

2017-10-01

Full Text Available The aim of the paper is to identify the fundamental variables driving banks’ credit default swaps. Quarterly data from 2004 to 2015 for European and American banks have been used. The analysis has been prepared through static panel data models. The following hypothesis has been put forward: the earnings potential, and economic uncertainty significantly influence credit risk. The independent variables used are CAMELS factors – Capital Adequacy, Asset Quality, Management Quality, Earnings Potential, Liquidity, and Sensitivity to Market Risk. The CDS spreads are most sensitive to the market risk factors whereas capital adequacy, earnings and liquidity indicators have weaker impact.

Credit Risk in the Banking Sector in Kosovo

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Muhamet Aliu

2017-05-01

Full Text Available Loans make up the bulk of a bank’s assets, and thus credit risk is the most significant risk for commercial banks in Kosovo and throughout the world. Despite its complexity, effective management of credit risk is a prerequisite for the success of a bank and the banking system in general. A special role in this aspect is played by the separation of reserves to cover the risk of failure to repay the loan or in cases of nonfulfilment of contractual obligations by the loan recipient. Therefore, this research aims to address this issue and analyses the credit risk management of the banking system of the Republic of Kosovo in general and the effects of separation of reserves for loan losses in particular.

Modeling a Distribution of Mortgage Credit Losses

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Gapko, Petr; Šmíd, Martin

2010-01-01

Roč. 23, č. 23 (2010), s. 1-23 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA402/09/0965; GA ČR GD402/09/H045 Grant - others:Univerzita Karlova - GAUK(CZ) 46108 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : Credit Risk * Mortgage * Delinquency Rate * Generalized Hyperbolic Distribution * Normal Distribution Subject RIV: AH - Economics http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2010/E/gapko-modeling a distribution of mortgage credit losses-ies wp.pdf

Managing sovereign credit risk in bond portfolios

OpenAIRE

Bruder, Benjamin; Hereil, Pierre; Roncalli, Thierry

2011-01-01

With the recent development of the European debt crisis, traditional index bond management has been severely called into question. We focus here on the risk issues raised by the classical market-capitalization weighting scheme. We propose an approach to properly measure sovereign credit risk in a fixed-income portfolio. For that, we assume that CDS spreads follow a SABR process and we derive a sovereign credit risk measure based on CDS spreads and duration of portfolio bonds. We then consider...

Credit risk evaluation based on social media.

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Yang; Gu, Jing; Zhou, Zongfang

2016-07-01

Social media has been playing an increasingly important role in the sharing of individuals' opinions on many financial issues, including credit risk in investment decisions. This paper analyzes whether these opinions, which are transmitted through social media, can accurately predict enterprises' future credit risk. We consider financial statements oriented evaluation results based on logit and probit approaches as the benchmarks. We then conduct textual analysis to retrieve both posts and their corresponding commentaries published on two of the most popular social media platforms for financial investors in China. Professional advice from financial analysts is also investigated in this paper. We surprisingly find that the opinions extracted from both posts and commentaries surpass opinions of analysts in terms of credit risk prediction. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A multicriteria approach for rating the credit risk of financial institutions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Baourakis, G.; Conisescu, M.; Dijk, van G.; Pardalos, P.M.; Zopounidis, C.

2009-01-01

Within the new bank regulatory context, the assessment of the credit risk of financial institutions is an important issue for supervising authorities and investors. This study explores the possibility of a developing risk assessment model for financial institutions using a multicriteria

Agent-based mapping of credit risk for sustainable microfinance.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Joung-Hun Lee

Full Text Available By drawing analogies with independent research areas, we propose an unorthodox framework for mapping microfinance credit risk--a major obstacle to the sustainability of lenders outreaching to the poor. Specifically, using the elements of network theory, we constructed an agent-based model that obeys the stylized rules of microfinance industry. We found that in a deteriorating economic environment confounded with adverse selection, a form of latent moral hazard may cause a regime shift from a high to a low loan payment probability. An after-the-fact recovery, when possible, required the economic environment to improve beyond that which led to the shift in the first place. These findings suggest a small set of measurable quantities for mapping microfinance credit risk and, consequently, for balancing the requirements to reasonably price loans and to operate on a fully self-financed basis. We illustrate how the proposed mapping works using a 10-year monthly data set from one of the best-known microfinance representatives, Grameen Bank in Bangladesh. Finally, we discuss an entirely new perspective for managing microfinance credit risk based on enticing spontaneous cooperation by building social capital.

Agent-based mapping of credit risk for sustainable microfinance.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Joung-Hun; Jusup, Marko; Podobnik, Boris; Iwasa, Yoh

2015-01-01

By drawing analogies with independent research areas, we propose an unorthodox framework for mapping microfinance credit risk--a major obstacle to the sustainability of lenders outreaching to the poor. Specifically, using the elements of network theory, we constructed an agent-based model that obeys the stylized rules of microfinance industry. We found that in a deteriorating economic environment confounded with adverse selection, a form of latent moral hazard may cause a regime shift from a high to a low loan payment probability. An after-the-fact recovery, when possible, required the economic environment to improve beyond that which led to the shift in the first place. These findings suggest a small set of measurable quantities for mapping microfinance credit risk and, consequently, for balancing the requirements to reasonably price loans and to operate on a fully self-financed basis. We illustrate how the proposed mapping works using a 10-year monthly data set from one of the best-known microfinance representatives, Grameen Bank in Bangladesh. Finally, we discuss an entirely new perspective for managing microfinance credit risk based on enticing spontaneous cooperation by building social capital.

Prepayment risk, impact on credit products

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dan Costin NIŢESCU

2012-08-01

Full Text Available Credit pricing is always an important aspect of operations of banks, as loans are generally two thirds of bank assets. Therefore, the study of factors influencing a bank customer behavior and their impact on early repayment of loans may have a significant influence in reducing the risk assumed by such unexpected operations.Objective analysis of prepayment risk is to estimate the probability of repayment to better manage its manifestation. The existence of potential customers that use this option exposes the bank to a number of risks, such as interest rate risk, the maturity mismatch risk and liquidity risk.Proper evaluation and forecasting the evolution of this risk can bring great benefits for a credit institution in the management of loan products and customer relationship: lower risk of over-ensure against fixed rate mortgage, a better management of short-term and long term liquidity needs (thus reducing the risk of over-financing can offer customers more competitive pricing (achieved by reducing funding costs due to better assessment and management of risks involved early repayment.

An Application Relating To Credit Risk and Credit Risk Management in Tu rkish Banking System: The Case of Turkey Garanti Bank

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Seyhan Çil Koçyiğit

2014-09-01

Full Text Available Within the globalization process of the world, at the competitive area arised as a result of the rapid increase in the number of banks and their branches in developing countries, the vigorously existance of banks depend on the management of the risks faced successfully. Banks must establish their credit strategies onto a good risk managment. Indeed, it is the inevitable fact that the success of financial institutions depends on having a powerful risk management system. In this study, by using the banking ratios, it is aimed to investigate the credit-risk changes of Turkish Garanti Bank (S.C. by three-month periods of 2007–2012 and give information about the risk management of Turkish Garanti Bank (S.C.. In conclusion, it is seen that, at Turkish Garanti Bank (S.C., credit risk is measured and evaluated in accordance with international standards, and all risk management is executing in parallel with Basel II regulations.

Wholesale funding, coordination, and credit risk

OpenAIRE

Zhang, Lei; Zhang , Lin; Zheng, Yong

2013-01-01

We use the global games approach to study key factors affecting the credit risk\\ud associated with roll-over of bank debt. When creditors are heterogenous, these include\\ud the extent of short-term borrowing and capital market liquidity for repo financing.\\ud Specifically, in a model with a large institutional creditor and a continuum of small\\ud creditors independently making their roll-over decisions based on private information,\\ud we find that increasing the proportion of short-term debt and/...

Application of Vine Copulas to Credit Portfolio Risk Modeling

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marco Geidosch

2016-06-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we demonstrate the superiority of vine copulas over conventional copulas when modeling the dependence structure of a credit portfolio. We show statistical and economic implications of replacing conventional copulas by vine copulas for a subportfolio of the Euro Stoxx 50 and the S&P 500 companies, respectively. Our study includes D-vines and R-vines where the bivariate building blocks are chosen from the Gaussian, the t and the Clayton family. Our findings are (i the conventional Gauss copula is deficient in modeling the dependence structure of a credit portfolio and economic capital is seriously underestimated; (ii D-vine structures offer a better statistical fit to the data than classical copulas, but underestimate economic capital compared to R-vines; (iii when mixing different copula families in an R-vine structure, the best statistical fit to the data can be achieved which corresponds to the most reliable estimate for economic capital.

Analysis of the liquidity risk in credit unions: a logit multinomial approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rosiane Maria Lima Gonçalves

2008-10-01

Full Text Available Liquidity risk in financial institutions is associated to balance between working capital and financial demands. Other factors that affect credit union liquidity are an unanticipated increase of withdrawals without an offsetting amount of new deposits, and the lack of ability in promoting the product geographical diversification. The objective of this study is to analyze Minas Gerais state credit union liquidity risk and its factor determinants. Financial ratios and the multinomial logit model are used. The cooperatives were classified in five categories of liquidity risk: very low, low, medium, high and very high. The empirical results indicate that high levels of liquidity are related to smaller values of the outsourcing capital use, immobilization of the turnover capital, and provision ratios. So, they are associated to larger values of the deposit total/credit operations, and asset growth ratios.

Modeling a Distribution of Mortgage Credit Losses

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Gapko, Petr; Šmíd, Martin

2012-01-01

Roč. 60, č. 10 (2012), s. 1005-1023 ISSN 0013-3035 R&D Projects: GA ČR GD402/09/H045; GA ČR(CZ) GBP402/12/G097 Grant - others:Univerzita Karlova(CZ) 46108 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : credit risk * mortgage * delinquency rate * generalized hyperbolic distribution * normal distribution Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.194, year: 2012 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2013/E/smid-modeling a distribution of mortgage credit losses.pdf

Financial performance as a decision criterion of credit scoring models selection [doi: 10.21529/RECADM.2017004

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rodrigo Alves Silva

2017-09-01

Full Text Available This paper aims to show the importance of the use of financial metrics in decision-making of credit scoring models selection. In order to achieve such, we considered an automatic approval system approach and we carried out a performance analysis of the financial metrics on the theoretical portfolios generated by seven credit scoring models based on main statistical learning techniques. The models were estimated on German Credit dataset and the results were analyzed based on four metrics: total accuracy, error cost, risk adjusted return on capital and Sharpe index. The results show that total accuracy, widely used as a criterion for selecting credit scoring models, is unable to select the most profitable model for the company, indicating the need to incorporate financial metrics into the credit scoring model selection process. Keywords Credit risk; Model’s selection; Statistical learning.

MANAGEMENT OF CREDIT LOSSES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Natalya P. Anoshkina

2018-06-01

Full Text Available The paper is devoted to the problem of credit loss management topical for modern Russian science and banking practice. The bank’s lending activity is an integral and the most profitable sphere of banking activity. Banks need to take credit risks inherent in their core business and minimize their impact through the establishment of advanced risk management systems. The study, reflected in the present paper, has been conducted in order to determine approaches to the organization of credit loss management in banking. Analysis of the system of management of credit risks and credit losses has shown that they have different scope, object and purpose. In this connection, there is an objective necessity to create a special subsystem for the management of credit losses in banks. On the basis of common bank approaches to credit risk management, the paper develops models of credit loss management: a multi-level management model in the area of ‘operational-tactical-strategic management’ and a functional management model in the area of ‘technology-execution-control’. These models are important for the modern theory and practice of banking, as they allow the bank to manage credit losses on the entire time horizon of the management process, thus opening a wide range of opportunities for the creation and implementation of large-scale programs, as well as specific techniques. This study allows drawing a conclusion about the need to consider control credit losses as a strictly regulated multi-level process, in which each division is assigned with specific objectives, tasks, functions, formally enshrined in the relevant lists, job descriptions and other legal documents.

Credit Risk Transfer and Crunches

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wigan, Duncan

2010-01-01

Rather than in terms of the inevitable demise of a destabilising process of speculation, this article explores the ‘credit crunch’ as a window on the fabrication, and measure of the proportions of a political shift driven by market actors and financial innovation. The Basel process reconceptualised...... banks as risk navigators and generated a competitive hierarchy within the global banking industry determined on a gauge of this capacity. This private regulatory regime promoted market inflation and rendered institutional liquidity and risk transfer definitive of market power. In turn, a ballooning...... credit derivatives market broke the limits of financial production and defined state actions in the face of crisis. A shift from a central concern with solvency to that of liquidity thinly masks a profound redistribution of power from the public to the private. By swapping private assets of uncertain...

Credit ratings and CEO risk-taking incentives

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kuang, Y.; Qin, B.

2013-01-01

This study examines the sophistication of rating agencies in incorporating managerial risk-taking incentives into their credit risk evaluation. We measure risk-taking incentives using two proxies: the sensitivity of managerial wealth to stock return volatility (vega) and the sensitivity of

Market-implied risk-neutral probabilities, actual probabilities, credit risk and news

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shashidhar Murthy

2011-09-01

Full Text Available Motivated by the credit crisis, this paper investigates links between risk-neutral probabilities of default implied by markets (e.g. from yield spreads and their actual counterparts (e.g. from ratings. It discusses differences between the two and clarifies underlying economic intuition using simple representations of credit risk pricing. Observed large differences across bonds in the ratio of the two probabilities are shown to imply that apparently safer securities can be more sensitive to news.

Evaluation of portfolio credit risk based on survival analysis for progressive censored data

Science.gov (United States)

Jaber, Jamil J.; Ismail, Noriszura; Ramli, Siti Norafidah Mohd

2017-04-01

In credit risk management, the Basel committee provides a choice of three approaches to the financial institutions for calculating the required capital: the standardized approach, the Internal Ratings-Based (IRB) approach, and the Advanced IRB approach. The IRB approach is usually preferred compared to the standard approach due to its higher accuracy and lower capital charges. This paper use several parametric models (Exponential, log-normal, Gamma, Weibull, Log-logistic, Gompertz) to evaluate the credit risk of the corporate portfolio in the Jordanian banks based on the monthly sample collected from January 2010 to December 2015. The best model is selected using several goodness-of-fit criteria (MSE, AIC, BIC). The results indicate that the Gompertz distribution is the best model parametric model for the data.

Value at risk, bank equity and credit risk

OpenAIRE

Broll, Udo; Wahl, Jack E.

2003-01-01

We study the implications of the value at risk concept for the bank's optimum amount of equity capital under credit risk. The market value of loans is risky and lognormally distributed. We show that the required equity capital depends upon managerial and market factors. Furthermore, the bank's equity and asset/liability management has to be addressed simultaneously by bank managers.

Credit risk disclosure in the annual financial statements of Bulgarian banks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anita Atanassova

2018-05-01

Full Text Available The paper analyzes the credit risk disclosure in the annual financial statements of Bulgarian banks for 2015 and 2016. Banks are ranked according to the level of credit risk disclosure, in accordance with the requirements of international accounting regulations and in relation to financial and regulatory ratios linked to capital adequacy. As a result of the conducted empirical study, it is concluded that banks' management is not particularly inclined to make full disclosures and actively to declare internal qualitative and quantitative information. However, the level of disclosure of credit risk for banks in Bulgaria is high. Banks with a low degree of capital adequacy tend to make a more complete disclosure of credit risk, and vice versa. There were no indications of a link between the size of the bank assets, the existence of the bank as a public company and the disclosure of credit risk. We believe that, in the context of increased competition, the disclosure of credit risk from a formal requirement may become one of the many tools to stabilize the position of certain banks and create a positive image of the bank for public information users.

Credit Risk Evaluation System: An Artificial Neural Network Approach

African Journals Online (AJOL)

On the other hand, this kind of bank's activity is connected with high risk as big amount of bad decisions may even cause bankruptcy. The key problem consists of distinguishing good (that surely repay) and bad (that likely default) credit applicants. Credit risk evaluation is an important and interesting management science ...

The evolution of credit risk: phenomena, methods and management

OpenAIRE

George A. Christodoulakis

2007-01-01

This paper summarizes the proceedings of a conference at the Bank of Greece on credit risk. The papers presented focused on innovations in risk management methods which contribute to systemic financial stability, calculation of capital adequacy in financial institutions as well as the validation of credit rating methods in the context of Basel II.

The effect of macroeconomic factors on credit risk in the banking system of Iran

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mohammad Khodaei Valahzaghard

2012-08-01

Full Text Available These days, there are increasing changes on environmental and economic networks and different risks of various institutions affect the financial structure. Different institutions including financial and credit institutions are facing with the risk of lack of their timely obligations to make sure the repayment of the funds is granted. In this study, the effects of economic factors not affected by intentional behavior of customers are investigated. Statistical study of the banking system includes all public and private banks. Statistical research community from 2005 to 2010 is considered. The cross-sectional data of the study and a combination of regression analysis is used. The regression analysis of combined data, fixed effects model based on the data is a cross-sectional fit. According to results of regression analysis, Pearson and Spearman's Correlation Coefficient, there is no significant relationship between the inflation rate, employment rate, unemployment rate, the dollar, the euro, with import growth of credit risk in the banking system in Iran. Therefore, based on probability theory, it can be stated that the credit risk in the banking system in Iran under the influence of variables is not mentioned. In addition, positive and significant relationship between stock index and credit risk in the banking system in Iran has increased by Weber in this index increases and reducing credit risk is reduced.

Credit Risk Management - Loan Approval Process

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lulzim Rashiti

2016-03-01

Full Text Available The aim of this study is on understanding the international regulations issued by Basel I, Basel II and Basel III to best supervise and manage credit risk management policies. Part of paper will focus on the description and impacts of the regulations and the pivotal importance they play in providing a sound banking system. Credit risk represents another important element that will be analysed considering that it lays the foundation during the loan consideration and approval process. The paper will also explain in detail procedures and responsibilities shared along the process of loan acceptance by a banker. To sum up, the overall process from application to loan approval or denial will be explained pointing out the implications that are faced along the way

Risk Pricing in Emerging Economies: Credit Scoring and Private Banking in Iran

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yiannis Anagnostopoulos

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Iran’s banking industry as a developing country is comparatively very new to risk management practices. An inevitable predictive implication of this rapid growth is the growing concerns with regard to credit risk management which is the motivation of conducting this research. The paper focuses on the credit scoring aspect of credit risk management using both logit and probit regression approaches. Real data on corporate customers are available for conducting this research which is also a contribution to this area for all other developing countries. Our questions focus on how future customers can be classified in terms of credibility, which models and methods are more effective in better capturing risks. Findings suggest that probit approaches are more effective in capturing the significance of variables and goodness-of-fitness tests. Seven variables of the Ohlson O-Score model are used: CL_CA, INTWO, OENEG, TA_TL, SIZE, WCAP_TA, and ROA; two were found to be statistically significant in logit (ROA, TL_TA and three were statistically significant in probit (ROA, TL_TA, SIZE. Also, CL_CA, ROA, and WCAP_TA were the three variables with an unexpected correlation to the probability of default. The prediction power with the cut-off point is set equal to 26% and 56.91% for defaulted customers in both logit and probit models. However, logit achieved 54.85% correct estimation of defaulted assets, 0.37% more than what probit estimated.

Quantifying credit portfolio losses under multi-factor models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

G. Colldeforns-Papiol (Gemma); L. Ortiz Gracia (Luis); C.W. Oosterlee (Kees)

2018-01-01

textabstractIn this work, we investigate the challenging problem of estimating credit risk measures of portfolios with exposure concentration under the multi-factor Gaussian and multi-factor t-copula models. It is well-known that Monte Carlo (MC) methods are highly demanding from the computational

Effects of economic interactions on credit risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hatchett, J P L; Kuehn, R

2006-01-01

We study a credit-risk model which captures effects of economic interactions on a firm's default probability. Economic interactions are represented as a functionally defined graph, and the existence of both cooperative and competitive business relations is taken into account. We provide an analytic solution of the model in a limit where the number of business relations of each company is large, but the overall fraction of the economy with which a given company interacts may be small. While the effects of economic interactions are relatively weak in typical (most probable) scenarios, they are pronounced in situations of economic stress, and thus lead to a substantial fattening of the tails of loss distributions in large loan portfolios. This manifests itself in a pronounced enhancement of the value at risk computed for interacting economies in comparison with their non-interacting counterparts

Writing Performance of At-Risk Learners in Online Credit Recovery

Science.gov (United States)

Leiter, Michael P.

2012-01-01

Online credit recovery is becoming a popular choice for students needing to recover lost graduation credit due to course failure. The problem is that high school students who take online credit recovery classes in order to gain writing credit for graduation are failing the writing section on the state merit exam (MME). At-risk students and…

Binary Tree Pricing to Convertible Bonds with Credit Risk under Stochastic Interest Rates

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jianbo Huang

2013-01-01

Full Text Available The convertible bonds usually have multiple additional provisions that make their pricing problem more difficult than straight bonds and options. This paper uses the binary tree method to model the finance market. As the underlying stock prices and the interest rates are important to the convertible bonds, we describe their dynamic processes by different binary tree. Moreover, we consider the influence of the credit risks on the convertible bonds that is described by the default rate and the recovery rate; then the two-factor binary tree model involving the credit risk is established. On the basis of the theoretical analysis, we make numerical simulation and get the pricing results when the stock prices are CRR model and the interest rates follow the constant volatility and the time-varying volatility, respectively. This model can be extended to other financial derivative instruments.

Sovereign Credit Risk in Latin America and Global Common Factors

OpenAIRE

Manuel Agosin Trumper; Juan Díaz Maureira

2012-01-01

This paper studies the importance of global common factors in the evolution of sovereign credit risk in a group of emerging economies (15 countries in Latin America for which daily data are available on sovereign credit spreads and CDS quotations from the beginning of 2007 until February 2012). We arrive at three principal results. First, there is robust evidence for the existence of a common factor in the evolution of the two measurements of sovereign credit risk that we use. Second, the com...

Credit-proofing fundamentals for a solid credit policy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lydiatt, I. [KeySpan Energy Canada, Calgary, AB (Canada)

2003-07-01

This Power Point presentation presented the basics of a credit policy with reference to corporate objectives, governance, credit definitions, subjective/objective elements, quantification of full risk, management, monitoring, reporting and gate-keeping processes. Options for a credit policy were described as being approval authority grids, confidentiality issues, credit scoring, corporate risk levels, follow-up collection calling, and procedures on unapproved exposures. Recommendations for setting risk and credit limits were also presented with a note emphasizing that in the past 6 months credit evaluation processes have had to deal with the media risk, a new risk that has not been seen before. This risk can be addressed by careful monitoring of stock prices. The paper also presented recommendations for what to look for as indicators and how to deal with risk in volatile price periods. Credit tools for volatile times were described. 1 tab.

Credit-proofing fundamentals for a solid credit policy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lydiatt, I.

2003-01-01

This Power Point presentation presented the basics of a credit policy with reference to corporate objectives, governance, credit definitions, subjective/objective elements, quantification of full risk, management, monitoring, reporting and gate-keeping processes. Options for a credit policy were described as being approval authority grids, confidentiality issues, credit scoring, corporate risk levels, follow-up collection calling, and procedures on unapproved exposures. Recommendations for setting risk and credit limits were also presented with a note emphasizing that in the past 6 months credit evaluation processes have had to deal with the media risk, a new risk that has not been seen before. This risk can be addressed by careful monitoring of stock prices. The paper also presented recommendations for what to look for as indicators and how to deal with risk in volatile price periods. Credit tools for volatile times were described. 1 tab

SUPERVISION OF CREDIT INSTITUTIONS SIGNIFICANT RISKS TO FINANCIAL STABILITY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

LUCIAN-ION MEDAR

2014-12-01

Full Text Available Financial stability of Romanian banking system is determined by the constant supervision of credit institutions significant risks. Accession of Romania to Union Banking requires the signing of a linked protocol between the central bank and European Central Bank regarding prudential supervision to ensure financial stability. This means that from the next year, the central bank will impose a new supervision of credit institutions in our country. And especially to those credit institutions that do not fall under European supervisors, according to the procedures of the ECB. Through this study we propose to specify the main elements of management of significant risks to ensure financial stability.

POSSIBILITIES OF IMPROVING THE METHODS AND TECHNIQUES USED IN THE SURVEILLANCE OF CREDIT RISK MANAGEMENT

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Balogh Peter

2010-12-01

Full Text Available Through their daily activities, credit institutions are subject to various risks which could affect both the bank and the whole banking system, national and transnational. The activity field of the banks, marked by volatility, by the internationalization and liberalization of the financial markets, is in a continuous change. The contagion effect, as it has been proved by the spread of the financial crisis effects, determines the surveillance authorities to pay increased attention to the financial risks and implicitly to the systemic risk. In this study, to start with, there shall be presented some aspects regarding the banking rating systems used by the surveillance authorities and then some ways of improving the models of managing credit risk in banks. In the end, there will be demonstrated that the risk profile of the banking institution has a determining role in the management of the credit portfolio.

An Analysis of the Factors Leading to Rising Credit Risk in the Zimbabwe Banking Sector

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maxwell Sandada

2016-02-01

Full Text Available The study sought to analyse the factors that lead to rising credit risk in the Zimbabwean banking sector. The objective was to ascertain the impact of macroeconomic, industry and bank specific factors on rising credit risk in in Zimbabwe. The study aimed at contributing to credit risk management literature by providing evidence Sub Saharan context. Being anchored on the positivist quantitative research approach, a survey was carried out gather the data that were analysed using descriptive, correlation and regression analyses. The results revealed that the most significant factors leading to credit risk in the Zimbabwean banking sector were macroeconomic and bank specific factors. The industry factors did not show a significant influence on the rising credit risk. The research findings of this study will a valuable addition to the existing knowledge and provide a platform for further research on how the credit risk problems can be dealt with. While credit risk is known as one of the risks inherent to any banking institutions, the alarming levels of credit risk in the Zimbabwe banking sector has motivated this current study to critically analyse the factors that have led to the high credit risk levels.

Credit Default Swaps networks and systemic risk

Science.gov (United States)

Puliga, Michelangelo; Caldarelli, Guido; Battiston, Stefano

2014-11-01

Credit Default Swaps (CDS) spreads should reflect default risk of the underlying corporate debt. Actually, it has been recognized that CDS spread time series did not anticipate but only followed the increasing risk of default before the financial crisis. In principle, the network of correlations among CDS spread time series could at least display some form of structural change to be used as an early warning of systemic risk. Here we study a set of 176 CDS time series of financial institutions from 2002 to 2011. Networks are constructed in various ways, some of which display structural change at the onset of the credit crisis of 2008, but never before. By taking these networks as a proxy of interdependencies among financial institutions, we run stress-test based on Group DebtRank. Systemic risk before 2008 increases only when incorporating a macroeconomic indicator reflecting the potential losses of financial assets associated with house prices in the US. This approach indicates a promising way to detect systemic instabilities.

Credit Default Swaps networks and systemic risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Puliga, Michelangelo; Caldarelli, Guido; Battiston, Stefano

2014-11-04

Credit Default Swaps (CDS) spreads should reflect default risk of the underlying corporate debt. Actually, it has been recognized that CDS spread time series did not anticipate but only followed the increasing risk of default before the financial crisis. In principle, the network of correlations among CDS spread time series could at least display some form of structural change to be used as an early warning of systemic risk. Here we study a set of 176 CDS time series of financial institutions from 2002 to 2011. Networks are constructed in various ways, some of which display structural change at the onset of the credit crisis of 2008, but never before. By taking these networks as a proxy of interdependencies among financial institutions, we run stress-test based on Group DebtRank. Systemic risk before 2008 increases only when incorporating a macroeconomic indicator reflecting the potential losses of financial assets associated with house prices in the US. This approach indicates a promising way to detect systemic instabilities.

The relationship between liquidity risk and credit risk in Islamic banking industry of Iran

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hashem Nikomaram

2013-04-01

Full Text Available An integrated risk management is a process, which enables banks to measure and manage all risks, simultaneously. The recent turbulent chaos on banking industry has increase the relative importance of risk management, more than before. This paper investigates the relationship between credit risk and liquidity risk among Iranian banks. The proposed study includes all private and governmental banks as population over the period 2005-2012. The results Pearson correlation has disclosed a positive and meaningful relationship between credit and liquidity risks. Bank size also impacts on two mentioned risk factors but we there seems to be no relationship between financial chaos and type of ownership with risk factors.

Network topology and interbank credit risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

González-Avella, Juan Carlos; Hoffmann de Quadros, Vanessa; Iglesias, José Roberto

2016-01-01

Modern financial systems are greatly entangled. They exhibit a complex interdependence, including a network of bilateral exposures in the interbank market. The most frequent interaction consists in operations where institutions with surplus liquidity lend to those with a liquidity shortage. These loans may be interpreted as links between the banks and the links display features in some way representative of scale-free networks. While the interbank market is responsible for efficient liquidity allocation, it also introduces the possibility for systemic risk via financial contagion. Insolvency of one bank can propagate through links leading to insolvency of other banks. In this paper, we explore the characteristics of financial contagion in interbank networks whose distribution of links approaches a power law, as well as we improve previous models by introducing a simple mechanism to describe banks’ balance sheets, that are obtained from information on network connectivity. By varying the parameters for the creation of the network, several interbank networks are built, in which the concentration of debt and credit comes from the distribution of links. The results suggest that more connected networks that have a high concentration of credit are more resilient to contagion than other types of networks analyzed.

Credit Risk Evaluation of Power Market Players with Random Forest

Science.gov (United States)

Umezawa, Yasushi; Mori, Hiroyuki

A new method is proposed for credit risk evaluation in a power market. The credit risk evaluation is to measure the bankruptcy risk of the company. The power system liberalization results in new environment that puts emphasis on the profit maximization and the risk minimization. There is a high probability that the electricity transaction causes a risk between companies. So, power market players are concerned with the risk minimization. As a management strategy, a risk index is requested to evaluate the worth of the business partner. This paper proposes a new method for evaluating the credit risk with Random Forest (RF) that makes ensemble learning for the decision tree. RF is one of efficient data mining technique in clustering data and extracting relationship between input and output data. In addition, the method of generating pseudo-measurements is proposed to improve the performance of RF. The proposed method is successfully applied to real financial data of energy utilities in the power market. A comparison is made between the proposed and the conventional methods.

Credit Risk Evaluation of Swedish SMEs : A Banking Sector Perspective

OpenAIRE

Hörstedt, Maria; Linjamaa, Johanna

2015-01-01

As a result from the latest financial crisis, the banking industry has undergone major modifications during the last years in order to limit banks’ risks. A vast majority of existing literature tends to focus upon credit risk evaluation methods and techniques mainly concerning quantitative measures and large companies. Thus, the lack of research regarding credit risk evaluation of SMEs is profound, especially considering Sweden. With the dominant market share of SMEs compared to large corpora...

Credit Spreads Across the Business Cycle

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Mads Stenbo

This paper studies how corporate bond spreads vary with the business cycle. I show that both level and slope of empirical credit spread curves are correlated with the state of the economy, and I link this to variation in idiosyncratic jump risk. I develop a structural credit risk model...... that accounts for both business cycle and jump risk, and show by estimation that the model captures the counter-cyclical level and pro-cyclical slope of empirical credit spread curves. In addition, I provide a new procedure for estimation of idiosyncratic jump risk, which is consistent with observed shocks...

An empirical approach to the credit risk assessment of a microfinance institution in Peru

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Juan Lara Rubio

2011-06-01

Full Text Available The growth of micro-credit along with the excellent conditions to carry out microfinance activity in the economy and financial system of the Republic of Peru are pushing for Microfinance Institutions (IMF increased competition with banks in this segment business. Like in commercial banks, in microfinance questions such as: is this customer profitable?, What is the credit limit that I must accept to his/her application?, What interest rate should I charge to him/ her?, How I can reduce the risk default?, etc., are matters to be assessed properly. We propose a method that could facilitate improvement in customer qualification between failed and not failed. To this end, we propose a methodology that analyzes credit risk in the provision of microcredit through the design of a credit scoring model that we apply to a Development Agency for Small and Micro Enterprise (EDPYME, which is an IMF under the supervision by the Banking and Insurance Superintendency (SBS.

Credit Risk Evaluation System For Nigerian Banks Using Artificial Ne

African Journals Online (AJOL)

MANKABS

CREDIT RISK EVALUATION SYSTEM: AN ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK APPROACH of their own experiential .... limitations concern the high computational ... Number of existing credits at this bank. 7. Personal status and sex. 14. Job. 17.

AVOIDING RISK IN WORKING CAPITAL CREDIT DISTRIBUTION IN INDONESIA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aloysius Deno Hervino

2011-09-01

Full Text Available This research analyzes risk avoidance behaviour of banking institutions in distributing working capital loan in Indonesia. Using Autoregressive Distributed Lag Error Correction Model, this paper uncovers three findings. First, in the short run, risk avoidance in working capital loan distribution depends on inter-call banking money market and Sertifikat Bank Indonesia. Second, following banking regulation after 1997 crisis, banks have become more careful in distributing credits, with SBI as a substitution instrument and inter-call banking money market as a complement instrument to spread the risk. Third, all explanatory variables take an average of 6 days or 1 week to influence bank’s risk avoidance behaviour.Keywords:     Risk avoidance, working capital distribution, banking institutions JEL classification numbers: C32, C52, D81, E51

Bank Credit Risk Management and Rating Migration Analysis on the Business Cycle

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dimitris Gavalas

2014-03-01

Full Text Available Credit risk measurement remains a critical field of top priority in banking finance, directly implicated in the recent global financial crisis. This paper examines the dynamic linkages between credit risk migration due to rating shifts and prevailing macroeconomic conditions, reflected in alternative business cycle states. An innovative empirical methodology applies to bank internal rating data, under different economic scenarios and investigates the implications of credit risk quality shifts for risk rating transition matrices. The empirical findings are useful and critical for banks to align to Basel guidelines in relation to core capital requirements and risk-weighted assets in the underlying loan portfolio.

THE INFLUENCE OF MACROECONOMIC CONDITIONS ON CREDIT RISK: CASE OF ROMANIAN BANKING SYSTEM

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Iulia Andreea Bucur

2014-07-01

Full Text Available This paper aims to explore the interactions between macroeconomic conditions, such as: real GDP growth rate, inflation rate, market interest rate, broad money supply, foreign exchange rate fluctuation and unemployment rate, and credit risk in Romanian banking sector during 2008-2013. The interrelations of indicators’ complexity imply a multidimensional statistical analysis in order to find a relation between the macroeconomic conditions and the credit risk. Our regression analysis findings confirm the hypothesis according to which the money supply growth rate and the market foreign exchange rate are negatively related with credit risk and the unemployment rate is positively related with it. Furthermore, our findings revealed that the credit risk is significantly and negatively affected by the exchange rate fluctuation and significantly and positively affected by the unemployment rate. The results do not indicate a significant relationship between credit risk and real GDP growth rate.

Higher order saddlepoint approximations in the Vasicek portfolio credit loss model

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Huang, X.; Oosterlee, C.W.; van der Weide, J.A.M.

2006-01-01

This paper utilizes the saddlepoint approximation as an efficient tool to estimate the portfolio credit loss distribution in the Vasicek model. Value at Risk (VaR), the risk measure chosen in the Basel II Accord for the evaluation of capital requirement, can then be found by inverting the loss

CREDIT SYSTEM AND CREDIT GUARANTEE PROGRAMS

OpenAIRE

Turgay GECER

2012-01-01

Credit system is an integrated architecture consisted of financial information, credit rating, credit risk management, receivables and credit insurance systems, credit derivative markets and credit guarantee programs. The main purpose of the credit system is to provide the functioning of all credit channels and to make it easy to access of credit sources demanded by all of real and legal persons in any economic system. Credit guarantee program, the one of prominent elements of the credit syst...

Derivative pricing with liquidity risk: Theory and evidence from the credit default swap market

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bongaerts, D.; de Jong, F.; Driessen, J.

2008-01-01

We derive a theoretical asset-pricing model for derivative contracts that allows for expected liquidity and liquidity risk, and estimate this model for the market of credit default swaps (CDS). Our model extends the LCAPM of Acharya and Pedersen (2005) to a setting with derivative instruments and

Economic policy uncertainty, credit risks and banks lending decisions: Evidence from Chinese commercial banks

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Qinwei Chi; Wenjing Li

2017-01-01

Using data for Chinese commercial banks from 2000 to 2014, this paper examines the effects of economic policy uncertainty(EPU) on banks’ credit risks and lending decisions. The results reveal significantly positive connections among EPU and non-performing loan ratios, loan concentrations and the normal loan migration rate. This indicates that EPU increases banks’ credit risks and negatively influences loan size, especially for joint-equity banks. Given the increasing credit risks generated by EPU, banks can improve operational performance by reducing loan sizes. Further research indicates that the effects of EPU on banks’ credit risks and lending decisions are moderated by the marketization level, with financial depth moderating the effect on banks’ credit risks and strengthening it on lending decisions.

75 FR 54020 - Federal Housing Administration Risk Management Initiatives: New Loan-to-Value and Credit Score...

Science.gov (United States)

2010-09-03

... Housing Administration Risk Management Initiatives: New Loan-to-Value and Credit Score Requirements AGENCY... acceptable risks of financial loss, not unacceptable risks.\\2\\ \\2\\ While the Federal Credit Reform Act of..., specific to each applicant. Lower credit scores indicate greater risk of default on any new credit extended...

The impact of macroeconomic variables on the evolution of the credit risk rate

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Luminița Gabriela Istrate

2018-03-01

Full Text Available The dynamics of the real economy is a major driver of the evolution of arrears at the level of the pool of loans granted to non-financial companies, completed by the financial pressure induced by the monetary conditions. Lending allows on the one hand providing resources for companies that need financing for investment projects, on the other hand, it supports the fund holders to place resources for obtaining profit. The role of the lending policy in the activity of commercial banks is very important, as it may influence both the cost of credits and the loan portfolio quality in the future. The purpose of this research is to find the macroeconomic variables that significantly influence credit risk and to develop a statistical model for predicting the doubtful and non-performing loans rate. Thus, it is envisaged the research of mechanisms by which the dynamics of the real economy and the money market conditions influence the evolution of the credit risk in different business sectors.

Credit Risk Management in Banking Institutions: Comparison between Chinese Banks and UK Banks

OpenAIRE

YU, LIN

2009-01-01

The recent international financial market turmoil has a great effect on the banking industry; accordingly it is very necessary to investigate the topic of the credit risk management. This paper mainly discusses the importance, current situation, ways and guidelines of the credit risk management for the banking industry. A large number of literatures are integrated in order to illustrate and explain recent developments in both methods and principles of credit risk management. Meanwhile, some e...

The influence of external factors on the credit risk in leasing industry

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gholamreza Farsad Amanollahi

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Credit risk consists of probability of non-return, which may be in the form of bankruptcy or a decrease in financial and credit situation of the lessee. The variables are extracted from the Central Bank. In this study the independent variables are measured with six factors that are called external factors. The external factors are size of leasing, ownership interest rate, foreign exchange, inflation, and Gross Domestic Product (GDP. The present study uses related observations from 31 leasing companies from 2008 to 2013 to find out the determinants of the credit risk. The combined evidences suggest that internal factors such as upfront prepayment, credit insurance contract, security deposits, time and period contract, collateral and guarantees, contract amount, as well as external factors such as interest rate, inflation, foreign exchange, Gross Domestic Product infrastructure, and credit risk are determinants in the policy-making process involving the industrial leasing. Furthermore, the empirical results indicate the size of leasing and ownership are not the significant determinants of credit risk. The results of this dissertation provide several implications for policy-makers in the leasing industry. Policy-makers will be better off employing different procedures for leasing activities in the leasing industry.

An endogenous model of the credit network

Science.gov (United States)

He, Jianmin; Sui, Xin; Li, Shouwei

2016-01-01

In this paper, an endogenous credit network model of firm-bank agents is constructed. The model describes the endogenous formation of firm-firm, firm-bank and bank-bank credit relationships. By means of simulations, the model is capable of showing some obvious similarities with empirical evidence found by other scholars: the upper-tail of firm size distribution can be well fitted with a power-law; the bank size distribution can be lognormally distributed with a power-law tail; the bank in-degrees of the interbank credit network as well as the firm-bank credit network fall into two-power-law distributions.

The Term Structure of Credit Spreads on Euro Corporate Bonds

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Landschoot, A.

2003-01-01

Although there is a broad literature on structural credit risk models, there has been little empirical testing of these models.In this paper we examine the term structure of credit spreads on euro corporate bonds and the empirical validation of structural credit risk models.The latter provide a

Understanding Credit Risk: A Classroom Experiment

Science.gov (United States)

Servatka, Maros; Theocharides, George

2011-01-01

This classroom experiment introduces students to the notion of credit risk and expected return, by allowing them to trade on comparable corporate bond issues from two types of markets: investment-grade and high-yield markets. Investment-grade issues have a lower probability of default than high-yield issues and thus provide a lower yield.…

Credit scoring analysis using kernel discriminant

Science.gov (United States)

Widiharih, T.; Mukid, M. A.; Mustafid

2018-05-01

Credit scoring model is an important tool for reducing the risk of wrong decisions when granting credit facilities to applicants. This paper investigate the performance of kernel discriminant model in assessing customer credit risk. Kernel discriminant analysis is a non- parametric method which means that it does not require any assumptions about the probability distribution of the input. The main ingredient is a kernel that allows an efficient computation of Fisher discriminant. We use several kernel such as normal, epanechnikov, biweight, and triweight. The models accuracy was compared each other using data from a financial institution in Indonesia. The results show that kernel discriminant can be an alternative method that can be used to determine who is eligible for a credit loan. In the data we use, it shows that a normal kernel is relevant to be selected for credit scoring using kernel discriminant model. Sensitivity and specificity reach to 0.5556 and 0.5488 respectively.

Confidence sets for asset correlations in portfolio credit risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Carlos Castro

2012-06-01

Full Text Available Asset correlations are of critical importance in quantifying portfolio credit risk and economic capitalin financial institutions. Estimation of asset correlation with rating transition data has focusedon the point estimation of the correlation without giving any consideration to the uncertaintyaround these point estimates. In this article we use Bayesian methods to estimate a dynamicfactor model for default risk using rating data (McNeil et al., 2005; McNeil and Wendin, 2007.Bayesian methods allow us to formally incorporate human judgement in the estimation of assetcorrelation, through the prior distribution and fully characterize a confidence set for the correlations.Results indicate: i a two factor model rather than the one factor model, as proposed bythe Basel II framework, better represents the historical default data. ii importance of unobservedfactors in this type of models is reinforced and point out that the levels of the implied asset correlationscritically depend on the latent state variable used to capture the dynamics of default,as well as other assumptions on the statistical model. iii the posterior distributions of the assetcorrelations show that the Basel recommended bounds, for this parameter, undermine the levelof systemic risk.

Measuring the coupled risks: A copula-based CVaR model

Science.gov (United States)

He, Xubiao; Gong, Pu

2009-01-01

Integrated risk management for financial institutions requires an approach for aggregating risk types (such as market and credit) whose distributional shapes vary considerably. The financial institutions often ignore risks' coupling influence so as to underestimate the financial risks. We constructed a copula-based Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) model for market and credit risks. This technique allows us to incorporate realistic marginal distributions that capture essential empirical features of these risks, such as skewness and fat-tails while allowing for a rich dependence structure. Finally, the numerical simulation method is used to implement the model. Our results indicate that the coupled risks for the listed company's stock maybe are undervalued if credit risk is ignored, especially for the listed company with bad credit quality.

CREDIT RISK ASSESSMENT IN THE ROMANIAN BANKING SYSTEM. EVIDENCE FROM THE RECENT FINANCIAL CRISIS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anamaria Avadanei

2011-12-01

Full Text Available The financial crisis followed by the recession has adversely affected the quality of Romanian banking assets. The aim of this paper is to point out the implications of credit risk in the Romanian banking system following the accelerate dynamics of credit activity before the financial crisis and the effects vs. solutions proposed and implemented in recent years. Structured on four parts, the study presents the recent contributions in the crisis-lending relationship, the main features of the Romanian banking system, the evaluation of credit risk in terms of numbers, facts, actions and a short analysis of the correlation between credit indicators (consumer credit, credit risk ratio, medium exchange rate and the number of employees in the economy. To conclude, we propose to define the key points of the future Romanian banking activity.

Probabilistic assessment of dry transport with burnup credit

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lake, W.H.

2003-01-01

The general concept of probabilistic analysis and its application to the use of burnup credit in spent fuel transport is explored. Discussion of the probabilistic analysis method is presented. The concepts of risk and its perception are introduced, and models are suggested for performing probability and risk estimates. The general probabilistic models are used for evaluating the application of burnup credit for dry spent nuclear fuel transport. Two basic cases are considered. The first addresses the question of the relative likelihood of exceeding an established criticality safety limit with and without burnup credit. The second examines the effect of using burnup credit on the overall risk for dry spent fuel transport. Using reasoned arguments and related failure probability and consequence data analysis is performed to estimate the risks of using burnup credit for dry transport of spent nuclear fuel. (author)

Assessment of Credit Risk Approaches in Relation with Competitiveness Increase of the Banking Sector

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cipovová Eva

2012-06-01

Full Text Available The article is focused on a presentation and analysis of selected methods of credit risk management in relation with competitiveness increase of the banking sector. The article is defined credit risk approaches under the Basel III gradually. Aim of this contribution constitutes various methods of credit risk management and effects of their usage on regulatory capital amount in respect of corporate exposures. Optimal equity amount in relation to the risk portfolio presents an essential prerequisite of performance and competitiveness growth of commercial banks. Gradually capital requirements using Standardized Approach and Internal Based Approach in a case of used and unused techniques of credit risk reduce has been quantified. We presume that sophisticated approach means significant saving for bank’s equity which increases competitiveness of banking sector also. Within the article, quantification of capital savings in case of Standardized (with and without assigned external ratings and Foundation Internal Based Approach at the selected credit portfolio has been effected.

Direct potable reuse microbial risk assessment methodology: Sensitivity analysis and application to State log credit allocations.

Science.gov (United States)

Soller, Jeffrey A; Eftim, Sorina E; Nappier, Sharon P

2018-01-01

Understanding pathogen risks is a critically important consideration in the design of water treatment, particularly for potable reuse projects. As an extension to our published microbial risk assessment methodology to estimate infection risks associated with Direct Potable Reuse (DPR) treatment train unit process combinations, herein, we (1) provide an updated compilation of pathogen density data in raw wastewater and dose-response models; (2) conduct a series of sensitivity analyses to consider potential risk implications using updated data; (3) evaluate the risks associated with log credit allocations in the United States; and (4) identify reference pathogen reductions needed to consistently meet currently applied benchmark risk levels. Sensitivity analyses illustrated changes in cumulative annual risks estimates, the significance of which depends on the pathogen group driving the risk for a given treatment train. For example, updates to norovirus (NoV) raw wastewater values and use of a NoV dose-response approach, capturing the full range of uncertainty, increased risks associated with one of the treatment trains evaluated, but not the other. Additionally, compared to traditional log-credit allocation approaches, our results indicate that the risk methodology provides more nuanced information about how consistently public health benchmarks are achieved. Our results indicate that viruses need to be reduced by 14 logs or more to consistently achieve currently applied benchmark levels of protection associated with DPR. The refined methodology, updated model inputs, and log credit allocation comparisons will be useful to regulators considering DPR projects and design engineers as they consider which unit treatment processes should be employed for particular projects. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

High-Risk Health and Credit Behavior among 18- to 25-Year-Old College Students

Science.gov (United States)

Adams, Troy; Moore, Monique

2007-01-01

The number of students accumulating credit card debt--and the amount of debt itself--on college campuses is increasing. If high-risk credit and health behavior are associated, health behavior interventions might apply to high-risk credit behavior. Objective: The authors' purpose was to examine these possible associations. Participants and Methods:…

DEVELOPMENT OF A RISK SCREENING METHOD FOR CREDITED OPERATOR ACTIONS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

HIGGINS, J.C.; O'HARA, J.M.; LEWIS, P.M.; PERSENSKY, J.; BONGARRA, J.

2002-01-01

DEVELOPMENT OF A RISK SCREENING METHOD FOR CREDITED OPERATOR ACTIONS. THE U.S. NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION (NRC) REVIEWS THE HUMAN FACTORS ASPECTS OF PROPOSED LICENSE AMENDMENTS THAT IMPACT HUMAN ACTIONS THAT ARE CREDITED IN A PLANTS SAFETY ANALYSIS. THE STAFF IS COMMITTED TO A GRADED APPROACH TO THESE REVIEWS THAT FOCUS RESOURCES ON THE MOST RISK IMPORTANT CHANGES. THEREFORE, A RISK INFORMED SCREENING METHOD WAS DEVELOPED BASED ON AN ADAPTATION OF EXISTING GUIDANCE FOR RISK INFORMED REGULATION AND HUMAN FACTORS. THE METHOD USES BOTH QUANTITATIVE AND QUALITATIVE INFORMATION TO DIVIDE THE AMENDMENT REQUESTS INTO DIFFERENT LEVELS OF REVIEW. THE METHOD WAS EVALUATED USING A VARIETY OF TESTS. THIS PAPER WILL SUMMARIZE THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE METHODOLOGY AND THE EVALUATIONS THAT WERE PERFORMED TO VERIFY ITS USEFULNESS

A Theoretical Argument Why the t-Copula Explains Credit Risk Contagion Better than the Gaussian Copula

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Didier Cossin

2010-01-01

Full Text Available One of the key questions in credit dependence modelling is the specfication of the copula function linking the marginals of default variables. Copulae functions are important because they allow to decouple statistical inference into two parts: inference of the marginals and inference of the dependence. This is particularly important in the area of credit risk where information on dependence is scant. Whereas the techniques to estimate the parameters of the copula function seem to be fairly well established, the choice of the copula function is still an open problem. We find out by simulation that the t-copula naturally arises from a structural model of credit risk, proposed by Cossin and Schellhorn (2007. If revenues are linked by a Gaussian copula, we demonstrate that the t-copula provides a better fit to simulations than does a Gaussian copula. This is done under various specfications of the marginals and various configurations of the network. Beyond its quantitative importance, this result is qualitatively intriguing. Student's t-copulae induce fatter (joint tails than Gaussian copulae ceteris paribus. On the other hand observed credit spreads have generally fatter joint tails than the ones implied by the Gaussian distribution. We thus provide a new statistical explanation why (i credit spreads have fat joint tails, and (ii financial crises are amplified by network effects.

Sample-path large deviations in credit risk

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Leijdekker, V.J.G.; Mandjes, M.R.H.; Spreij, P.J.C.

2011-01-01

The event of large losses plays an important role in credit risk. As these large losses are typically rare, and portfolios usually consist of a large number of positions, large deviation theory is the natural tool to analyze the tail asymptotics of the probabilities involved. We first derive a

Rare Disasters and Credit Market Puzzles

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christoffersen, Peter; Du, Du; Elkamhi, Redouane

to the real economy and not to bond prices can simultaneously explain several key empirical regularities in credit markets. Our model captures the empirical level and volatility of credit spreads, generates a flexible credit risk term structure, and provides a good fit to a century of observed spreads...

Effect of internal controls on credit risk among listed Spanish banks

OpenAIRE

Akwaa-Sekyi, Ellis Kofi; Moreno Gené, Jordi

2016-01-01

Purpose: The paper examines the effectiveness of internal control systems, explores the exposure of Spanish banks to the dangers of default as a result of internal control systems and establishes a relationship between internal controls and credit risk. Design/Methodology/Approach: Quantitative research approach is used to test hypotheses on the relationship between internal controls and credit risk among listed banks in Spain. Data from Bankscope and company websites from 2004-2013 were used...

Liquidity and Credit Risk in Fixed Income Markets

OpenAIRE

Vonhoff, Volker

2011-01-01

1 Introduction 2 The Term Structure of Liquidity Premia in the U.S. Treasury Market 3 Liquidity Premia in the Market for German Bunds and STRIPS 4 Liquidity and Credit Risk Premia in the Pfandbrief Market

Credit Booms and Busts in Emerging Markets: The Role of Bank Governance and Risk Management

OpenAIRE

Brown, Martin; Andries, Alin Marius

2014-01-01

This paper investigates to what extent risk management and corporate governance mitigate the involvement of banks in credit boom and bust cycles. Using a unique, hand-collected dataset on 156 banks from Central and Eastern Europe during 2005-2012, we assess whether banks with stronger risk management and corporate governance display more moderate credit growth in the pre-crisis credit boom as well as a smaller credit contraction and fewer credit losses in the crisis period. With respect to ba...

Improving default risk prediction using Bayesian model uncertainty techniques.

Science.gov (United States)

Kazemi, Reza; Mosleh, Ali

2012-11-01

Credit risk is the potential exposure of a creditor to an obligor's failure or refusal to repay the debt in principal or interest. The potential of exposure is measured in terms of probability of default. Many models have been developed to estimate credit risk, with rating agencies dating back to the 19th century. They provide their assessment of probability of default and transition probabilities of various firms in their annual reports. Regulatory capital requirements for credit risk outlined by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision have made it essential for banks and financial institutions to develop sophisticated models in an attempt to measure credit risk with higher accuracy. The Bayesian framework proposed in this article uses the techniques developed in physical sciences and engineering for dealing with model uncertainty and expert accuracy to obtain improved estimates of credit risk and associated uncertainties. The approach uses estimates from one or more rating agencies and incorporates their historical accuracy (past performance data) in estimating future default risk and transition probabilities. Several examples demonstrate that the proposed methodology can assess default probability with accuracy exceeding the estimations of all the individual models. Moreover, the methodology accounts for potentially significant departures from "nominal predictions" due to "upsetting events" such as the 2008 global banking crisis. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

Credit risk disclosure in the annual financial statements of Bulgarian banks

OpenAIRE

Anita Atanassova; Nadezhda Popova-Yosifova

2018-01-01

The paper analyzes the credit risk disclosure in the annual financial statements of Bulgarian banks for 2015 and 2016. Banks are ranked according to the level of credit risk disclosure, in accordance with the requirements of international accounting regulations and in relation to financial and regulatory ratios linked to capital adequacy. As a result of the conducted empirical study, it is concluded that banks' management is not particularly inclined to make full disclosures and actively to d...

ASSESSING THE EFFECTIVENESS OF CREDIT RISK MAN ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

User

The study was conducted using 20 Micro-firms in Accra which ... Journal of Science and Technology, Vol. ... RESEARCH PAPER ... capital (measured by the borrower's net worth), ... number of firms existing in the market and the ... agers and/or staff of the credit management .... the firm's risk tolerance and the level of profit-.

The Effect of Credit Lines and Risks on Operations of Microfinance ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

... and make sure that loans are used for the purpose for which they were given as this will reduce the number of non performing loans. Keywords: Microfinance, Microfinance banks, Credit lines, Credit risks, Banks' depositors. International Journal of Development and Management Review (INJODEMAR) Vol. 7 June, 2012 ...

THE IMPORTANCE OF THE LIQUIDITY RISK IN THE MANAGEMENT OF THE CREDIT INSTITUTIONS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Costea Ciprian-Dan

2013-03-01

Full Text Available The credit institutions management faces nowadays new and important challenges, of which the most important is the central role the liquidity risk management takes in the overall banking management complexity. This shows that liquidity risk in at the top of attention in the modern banking management, all the other banking risks being subsequent to this one. International regulations and settlers come to sustain the rising importance of liquidity risk in modern credit institution management.

Rare disasters, credit, and option market puzzles

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christoffersen, Peter; Du, Du; Elkamhi, Redouane

2017-01-01

calibrated to the real economy can simultaneously explain several key empirical regularities in equity, credit, and options markets. Our model captures the empirical level and volatility of credit spreads, generates a flexible credit risk term structure, and provides a good fit to a century of observed...

Assessing the Credit Risk of Corporate Bonds Based on Factor Analysis and Logistic Regress Analysis Techniques: Evidence from New Energy Enterprises in China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yuanxin Liu

2018-05-01

Full Text Available In recent years, new energy sources have ushered in tremendous opportunities for development. The difficulties to finance new energy enterprises (NEEs can be estimated through issuing corporate bonds. However, there are few scientific and reasonable methods to assess the credit risk of NEE bonds, which is not conducive to the healthy development of NEEs. Based on this, this paper analyzes the advantages and risks of NEEs issuing bonds and the main factors affecting the credit risk of NEE bonds, constructs a hybrid model for assessing the credit risk of NEE bonds based on factor analysis and logistic regress analysis techniques, and verifies the applicability and effectiveness of the model employing relevant data from 46 Chinese NEEs. The results show that the main factors affecting the credit risk of NEE bonds are internal factors involving the company’s profitability, solvency, operational ability, growth potential, asset structure and viability, and external factors including macroeconomic environment and energy policy support. Based on the empirical results and the exact situation of China’s NEE bonds, this article finally puts forward several targeted recommendations.

Two Stage Fuzzy Methodology to Evaluate the Credit Risks of Investment Projects

OpenAIRE

O. Badagadze; G. Sirbiladze; I. Khutsishvili

2014-01-01

The work proposes a decision support methodology for the credit risk minimization in selection of investment projects. The methodology provides two stages of projects’ evaluation. Preliminary selection of projects with minor credit risks is made using the Expertons Method. The second stage makes ranking of chosen projects using the Possibilistic Discrimination Analysis Method. The latter is a new modification of a well-known Method of Fuzzy Discrimination Analysis.

The Credit-Risk Decision Mechanism on Fixed Loan Interest Rate with Imperfect Information

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

无

2001-01-01

In this paper, decision mechanism of credit-risk for banks is studied when the loan interest rate is fixed with asymmetry information in credit market. We give out the designs of rationing and non-rationing on credit risky decision mechanism when collateral value provided by an entrepreneur is not less than the minimum demands of the bank. It shows that under the action of the mechanism, banks could efficiently identify the risk size of the project. Finally, the condition of the project investigation of bank is given over again.

Analysis of empirical determinants of credit risk in the banking sector of the Republic of Serbia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Račić Željko

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The aim of this paper is the detection and analysis of empirical determinants of credit risk in the banking sector of the Republic of Serbia. The paper is based on an analysis of results of the application of the linear regression model, during the period from the third quarter of 2008 to the third quarter of 2014. There are three main findings. Firstly, the higher lending activity of banks contributes to the increasing share of high-risk loans in the total withdrawn loans (delayed effect of 3 years. Secondly, the growth of loans as opposed to deposits contributes to the increased exposure of banks to credit risk. Thirdly, the factors that reduce the exposure of banks to credit risk increase profitability, growth of interest rate spread and real GDP growth. Bearing in mind the overall market conditions and dynamics of the economic recovery of the country, there is a general conclusion based on the results that in the coming period the question of non-performing loans (NPLs in the Republic of Serbia will present a challenge for both lenders and borrowers.

P2P Network Lending, Loss Given Default and Credit Risks

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Guangyou Zhou

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Peer-to-peer (P2P network lending is a new mode of internet finance that still holds credit risk as its main risk. According to the internal rating method of the New Basel Accord, in addition to the probability of default, loss given default is also one of the important indicators of evaluation credit risks. Proceeding from the perspective of loss given default (LGD, this paper conducts an empirical study on the probability distribution of LGDs of P2P as well as its influencing factors with the transaction data of Lending Club. The results show that: (1 the LGDs of P2P loans presents an obvious unimodal distribution, the peak value is relatively high and tends to concentrate with the decrease of the borrower’s credit rating, indicating that the distribution of LGDs of P2P lending is similar to that of unsecured bonds; (2 The total asset of the borrower has no significant impact on LGD, the credit rating and the debt-to-income ratio exert a significant negative impact, while the term and amount of the loan produce a relatively strong positive impact. Therefore, when evaluating the borrower’s repayment ability, it is required to pay more attention to its assets structure rather than the size of its total assets. When carrying out risk control for the P2P platform, it is necessary to give priority to the control of default rate.

Credit Risk Management and Interest Income of Banks in Nigeria

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fapetu, Oladapo

2017-06-01

Full Text Available This study examines the impact of credit risk on the interest income of banks in Nigeria between the period of 2000 and 2014. Unbalanced panel data analysis was used to estimate the model with unit root test, Breusch Pagan test, trend analysis, descriptive statistics, Perasan CD Test, heteroskedasticity test, heterogeneity test, serial correlation test, Jarquebera, F-statistics, random effect, fixed effect, time effect, Prob value, Hausman test and rho as the estimation parameters. The study discovered that NPL, LLP and LA are statistically significant in explaining the variation in interest income across banks in Nigeria, while LA/TD is not statistically significant in explaining the variation in interest income across banks in Nigeria. Based on this, the study recommends that regular update of credit policy and adequate measures to monitor loans should be put in place by banks in Nigeria, as these measures will reduce bad loans and ultimately cause a reduction in loan loss provisions.

Credit risk exposure with interest and currency swaps

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Coppes, R.C.; Stokking, E.J.

1996-01-01

The increased use of financial derivatives like interest rate and currency swap contracts has drawn much attention, as it exposes banks to non-performance by their counterparts. This credit risk exposure is of great concern to monetary authorities, e.g. the Bank for International Settlements. Ln

IMPACT OF THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS ON THE CREDIT RISK MANAGEMENT IN A BANK

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jerzy Piotr Gwizdała

2016-06-01

Full Text Available The main purpose of this article is to present the role of risk in the activity of a commercial bank with particular reference to the global financial crisis. The introductory part presents the origins of economic crises, especially the contemporary crisis from 2007-2010, which began in the United States subprime mortgage market. Dating back to the 1831, considerations allow to undetstand the causes of the crises. Then the impact of the global financial crisis on the scale of the crediting activities of banks in Poland was analyzed, presenting a credit portfolio structure, with a particular focus on the structure of loans to households and enterprises. In the second part of the article the process of credit risk management was discussed, paying attention to the crucial role of the bank's credit policy, and the conditions and prospects of commercial bank credit activity development were specified. It presents also the criteria for the proper credit management, indicating as the optimal solution the development of the so-called „credit textbook”.

Credit risk in the pool-implications for private capital investments in Brazilian power generation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rocha, Katia; Alcaraz Garcia, Francisco A.

2006-01-01

The new Brazilian Electric Sector Regulation of 2004 introduced two negotiation markets: the regulated pool and the free market. Competition in the pool is enforced via energy auctions, where the winning generator has to sign long-term power purchase agreements simultaneously with all distributors at the bidding-price. To estimate the appropriate credit risk spread of the pool, we implement a clustering methodology to rank and rate the distributors. The results show an average spread between 5.75% and 8.5%, which corresponds to a credit rating of B- according to the spreads available in Reuters 2004. This estimation is at least 208 basis points higher than the credit rating Ba1/BB+ assigned to the distributors by the National Electric Energy Agency (ANEEL) in the periodic tariff revisions. Distributors with higher risk/spread are located in the South-Southeast, compared to the low risk/spread ones concentrated in the North-Northeast. We estimate the opportunity cost of capital in real terms in the range of 13-16% to account for the credit risk of the pool. Essential to determine the bidding price at the auctions, this estimation is higher than the 11.26% opportunity cost estimated by ANEEL. The pool's credit risk has to be taken into consideration, especially for compensating new private capital investments in Brazilian power generation

Partially Observed Mixtures of IRT Models: An Extension of the Generalized Partial-Credit Model

Science.gov (United States)

Von Davier, Matthias; Yamamoto, Kentaro

2004-01-01

The generalized partial-credit model (GPCM) is used frequently in educational testing and in large-scale assessments for analyzing polytomous data. Special cases of the generalized partial-credit model are the partial-credit model--or Rasch model for ordinal data--and the two parameter logistic (2PL) model. This article extends the GPCM to the…

Development of methodological tools for assessing enterprise credit worthiness taking into account off-balance sheet risks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

N.G. Vygovska

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The article is devoted to the improvement of methodical tools for assessing the credit worthiness of enterprises’ legal entities taking into account the impact of off-balance-sheet risks on the definite integral class of a debtor-borrower. The authors substantiate that the non-accounting of off-balance sheet commitments in assessing the borrower’s credit worthiness leads to false managerial decisions on granting a loan and increasing the level of credit risk of the bank. The purpose of the article is to study the questions of methodical tools for assessing the credit worthiness of economic entities and develop directions for improving its analytical support taking into account the impact of off-balance-sheet risks. The object of the research is the analytical support for assessing the credit worthiness of a borrower-legal entity taking into account off-balance-sheet risks. The authors put forward and proved the hypothesis that, acting as the guarantor or principal of another enterprise, the assessment of the borrower's credit worthiness undergoes significant changes. The coefficient analysis of the methodological provision for assessing the borrower's credit rating by the current method number 351 is carried out, as a result of which the influence on the integral index and the debtor class is proved. When determining the reliability class of the borrower, the most affected are solvency ratios (especially for short-term loans and financial sustainability (for long-term loans to the borrower. The current methodology for defining these indicators does not take into account the effect of off-balance sheet risks, which is due to the use of financial reporting data, which does not include data on off-balance sheet instruments. The methodological support of credit-worthiness analysis is proposed, taking into account the impact of off-balance sheet risks on it. The prospects for further research should be formulated in the direction of improving the

Efficient computation of exposure profiles for counterparty credit risk

NARCIS (Netherlands)

C.S.L. de Graaf (Kees); Q. Feng (Qian); B.D. Kandhai; C.W. Oosterlee (Cornelis)

2014-01-01

htmlabstractThree computational techniques for approximation of counterparty exposure for financial derivatives are presented. The exposure can be used to quantify so-called Credit Valuation Adjustment (CVA) and Potential Future Exposure (PFE), which are of utmost importance for modern risk

Modelo de classificação de risco de crédito de empresas A model for the classification of companies credit risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Giovani Antonio Silva Brito

2008-04-01

Full Text Available O processo de gerenciamento de risco de crédito em instituições financeiras vem passando por uma revisão ao longo dos últimos anos. Nesse contexto, diversas novas técnicas de mensuração de risco de crédito e tomadores têm sido desenvolvidas e implementadas por grandes Bancos. O objetivo desta pesquisa é desenvolver um modelo de classificação de risco para avaliar o risco de crédito de empresas no mercado brasileiro. O modelo foi construído com base em uma amostra de empresas de capital aberto classificadas como solventes ou insolventes no período entre 1994 e 2004. A técnica estatística utilizada no desenvolvimento do modelo foi a regressão logística. As variáveis independentes são índices financeiros calculados a partir das demonstrações contábeis e utilizados para representar a situação econômico-financeira das empresas. A validação do modelo foi efetuada utilizando o método Jackknife e uma Curva ROC. Os resultados do estudo indicam que o modelo de classificação de risco desenvolvido prevê eventos de default com um ano de antecedência com bom nível de acurácia. Os resultados, também, indicam que as demonstrações contábeis contêm informações que possibilitam a classificação das empresas como prováveis solventes ou prováveis insolventes.The process of credit risk management in financial institutions has been revised in recent years. In this context, large banks have developed and implemented several new techniques for measuring borrowers credit risk. This research aims to develop a risk classification model to assess the credit risk of companies in the Brazilian market. The model was built based on a sample of publicly traded companies classified as solvent or insolvent during the period from 1994 to 2004. Logistic regression was used to develop the model. The independent variables of the model are financial ratios, calculated from the financial statements and used as proxies of companies economic

STOCHASTIC MODELING OF OPTIMIZED CREDIT STRATEGY OF A DISTRIBUTING COMPANY ON THE PHARMACEUTICAL MARKET

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Boychuk

2015-10-01

Full Text Available The activity of distribution companies is multifaceted. Ihey establish contacts with producers and consumers, determine the range of prices of medicines, do promotions, hold stocks of pharmaceuticals and take risks in their further selling.Their internal problems are complicated by the political crisis in the country, decreased purchasing power of national currency, and the rise in interest rates on loans. Therefore the usage of stochastic models of dynamic systems for the research into optimizing the management of pharmaceutical products distribution companies taking into account credit payments is of great current interest. A stochastic model of the optimal credit strategy of a pharmaceutical distributor in the market of pharmaceutical products has been constructed in the article considering credit payments and income limitations. From the mathematical point of view the obtained problem is the one of stochastic optimal control where the amount of monetary credit is the control and the amount of pharmaceutical product is the solution curve. The model allows to identify the optimal cash loan and the corresponding optimal quantity of pharmaceutical product that comply with the differential model of the existing quantity of pharmaceutical products in the form of Ito; the condition of the existing initial stock of pharmaceutical products; the limitation on the amount of credit and profit received from the product selling and maximize the average integral income. The research of the stochastic optimal control problem involves the construction of the left process of crediting with determination of the shift point of that control, the choice of the right crediting process and the formation of the optimal credit process. It was found that the optimal control of the credit amount and the shift point of that control are the determined values and don’t depend on the coefficient in the Wiener process and the optimal trajectory of the amount of

Analysis of The Influence of Liquidity, Credit and Operational Risk, in Indonesian Islamic Bank’s Financing for The Period 2007-2013

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Ousmane Diallo

2015-12-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to analyze the influence of credit, liquidity and operational risks in six Indonesian’s islamic banking financing products namely mudharabah, musyarakah, murabahah, istishna, ijarah and qardh, in order to try to discover whether or not Indonesian islamic banking is based on the “risk-sharing” system. This paper relies on a fixed effect model test based on the panel data analysis method, focusing on the period from 2007 to 2013. The research is an exploratory and descriptive study of all the Indonesian islamic banks that were operating in 2013. The results of this study show that the Islamic banking system in Indonesia truly has banking products based on “risk-sharing.” We found out that credit, operational and liquidity risks as a whole, have significant influence on mudarabah, musyarakah, murabahah, istishna, ijarah and qardh based financing. There is a correlation between the credit risk and mudarabah based financing, and no causal relationship between the credit risk and musharaka, murabahah, ijarah, istishna and qardh based financing. There is also correlation between the operational risk and mudarabah and murabahah based financing, and no causal relationship between the operational risk and musharaka, istishna, ijarah and qardh based financing. There is correlation between the liquidity risk and istishna based financing, and no causal relationship between the liquidity risk and musharaka, mudarabah, murabahah, ijarah and qardh based financing. A major implication of this study is the fact that there is no causal relationship between the credit risk and musharakah based financing, which is the mode of financing where the islamic bank shares the risk with its clients, but there is an influence of credit risk toward mudarabah mode financing, a financing mode where the Islamic bank bears all the risk. These findings can lead us to conclude that the Indonesian Islamic banking sector is based on the “risk

75 FR 2723 - Fair Credit Reporting Risk-Based Pricing Regulations

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-15

...-based pricing notice to a consumer when the creditor uses a consumer report to grant or extend credit to... consumers to combat identity theft, increase the accuracy of consumer reports, and allow consumers to... consumer report is often used in evaluating the risk posed by the consumer. Creditors that engage in risk...

Modernization of credit relations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S.V. Volosovich

2015-03-01

Full Text Available Nowadays it is essential to modernize credit relations in the conditions of global economy transformations. This is due to the influence of integration processes on credit relations and transformation of the risks inherent in the credit field. The purpose of this article is to develop measures that help to improve the efficiency of interaction of credit relations’ participants. Modernization of credit relations is based on the interaction of its main and indirect subjects who belong to the subsystems of loans granting, deposits attraction and provision of related services. Its goal is to pass from extensive to intensive model of interaction between the subjects of credit relations. Components of the credit relations modernization are the following: institutional modernization, which is based on the interaction of credit relations’ subjects, and ensures the development of competition in all credit market’s segments, the creation of its corresponding infrastructure, qualitative change in the approaches of regulation and supervision; technological modernization, which involves the formation of joint products on the credit market and the formation of an integrated informational and analytical system. In the result of the credit relations’ modernization it is expected to achieve synergies between the subjects of credit relations, that will lead to changes in the business architecture of the financial market.

Methodology of Credit Analysis Development

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Slađana Neogradi

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The subject of research presented in this paper refers to the definition of methodology for the development of credit analysis in companies and its application in lending operations in the Republic of Serbia. With the developing credit market, there is a growing need for a well-developed risk and loss prevention system. In the introduction the process of bank analysis of the loan applicant is presented in order to minimize and manage the credit risk. By examining the subject matter, the process of processing the credit application is described, the procedure of analyzing the financial statements in order to get an insight into the borrower's creditworthiness. In the second part of the paper, the theoretical and methodological framework is presented applied in the concrete company. In the third part, models are presented which banks should use to protect against exposure to risks, i.e. their goal is to reduce losses on loan operations in our country, as well as to adjust to market conditions in an optimal way.

Efficient Computation of Exposure Profiles for Counterparty Credit Risk

NARCIS (Netherlands)

de Graaf, C.S.L.; Feng, Q.; Kandhai, D.; Oosterlee, C.W.

2014-01-01

Three computational techniques for approximation of counterparty exposure for financial derivatives are presented. The exposure can be used to quantify so-called Credit Valuation Adjustment (CVA) and Potential Future Exposure (PFE), which are of utmost importance for modern risk management in the

Why credit risk markets are predestined for exhibiting log-periodic power law structures

Science.gov (United States)

Wosnitza, Jan Henrik; Leker, Jens

2014-01-01

Recent research has established the existence of log-periodic power law (LPPL) patterns in financial institutions’ credit default swap (CDS) spreads. The main purpose of this paper is to clarify why credit risk markets are predestined for exhibiting LPPL structures. To this end, the credit risk prediction of two variants of logistic regression, i.e. polynomial logistic regression (PLR) and kernel logistic regression (KLR), are firstly compared to the standard logistic regression (SLR). In doing so, the question whether the performances of rating systems based on balance sheet ratios can be improved by nonlinear transformations of the explanatory variables is resolved. Building on the result that nonlinear balance sheet ratio transformations hardly improve the SLR’s predictive power in our case, we secondly compare the classification performance of a multivariate SLR to the discriminative powers of probabilities of default derived from three different capital market data, namely bonds, CDSs, and stocks. Benefiting from the prompt inclusion of relevant information, the capital market data in general and CDSs in particular increasingly outperform the SLR while approaching the time of the credit event. Due to the higher classification performances, it seems plausible for creditors to align their investment decisions with capital market-based default indicators, i.e., to imitate the aggregate opinion of the market participants. Since imitation is considered to be the source of LPPL structures in financial time series, it is highly plausible to scan CDS spread developments for LPPL patterns. By establishing LPPL patterns in governmental CDS spread trajectories of some European crisis countries, the LPPL’s application to credit risk markets is extended. This novel piece of evidence further strengthens the claim that credit risk markets are adequate breeding grounds for LPPL patterns.

Development Of The Technique Of Assessment Of Banking Risks Of Long-Term Crediting Of Investments (On The Example Of Banks Of Sevastopol

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ulyana Viktorovna Dremova

2015-03-01

Full Text Available The external destabilizing factor — financial crisis — has significantly influenced on the level increase of riskiness of the banking credit operations. Taking into account that the increased level of risk follows long-term credits, these operations has been influenced the most, that can be as one of the constraining conditions for the provision of bank long-term credit resources. It, in turn, causes the need to develop the risk assessment technique of long-term credits in regulation of banks’ long-term credit operations. As the risk assessment of credit operations in banking practice is generally limited to the calculation of credit risk, it is efficient to consider the scientifically reasonable approach to a risks assessment of long-term crediting including influence of private risks for the purpose of carrying out the generalized assessment of riskiness both separate types of long-term credits, and a long-term credit portfolio in general. The offered method is based on the calculation of aggregate risk coefficient of the long-term credits, calculated by means of mathematical method of principal component. In the work, it is offered to perform an assessment of private risks by means of statistics: the expectation value, mean square deviation, and the coefficient of a variation. The use of the principal components’ method at the risk assessment of longterm crediting meets such requirements as a lack of value judgment, accounting of specific features of private risks of long-term credits, mathematical validity. It gives the chance to apply the offered risk assessment method of long-term credits in banking. The conclusion is made that the application of an aggregative risk indicator of a long-term crediting will allow banks to trace more accurately the level of riskiness of a long-term credit portfolio and separate types of long-term credits that will strengthen the bank information and analytical base on risk regulation in the field and

Credit scoring using ensemble of various classifiers on reduced feature set

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Dahiya Shashi

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Credit scoring methods are widely used for evaluating loan applications in financial and banking institutions. Credit score identifies if applicant customers belong to good risk applicant group or a bad risk applicant group. These decisions are based on the demographic data of the customers, overall business by the customer with bank, and loan payment history of the loan applicants. The advantages of using credit scoring models include reducing the cost of credit analysis, enabling faster credit decisions and diminishing possible risk. Many statistical and machine learning techniques such as Logistic Regression, Support Vector Machines, Neural Networks and Decision tree algorithms have been used independently and as hybrid credit scoring models. This paper proposes an ensemble based technique combining seven individual models to increase the classification accuracy. Feature selection has also been used for selecting important attributes for classification. Cross classification was conducted using three data partitions. German credit dataset having 1000 instances and 21 attributes is used in the present study. The results of the experiments revealed that the ensemble model yielded a very good accuracy when compared to individual models. In all three different partitions, the ensemble model was able to classify more than 80% of the loan customers as good creditors correctly. Also, for 70:30 partition there was a good impact of feature selection on the accuracy of classifiers. The results were improved for almost all individual models including the ensemble model.

The Role of Credit in Predicting US Recessions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pönkä, Harri

are useful predictors of US recessions over and above the control variables both in and out of sample. Especially the excess bond premium, capturing the cyclical changes in the relationship between default risk and credit spreads, is found to be a powerful predictor. Overall, models that combine credit......We study the role of credit in forecasting US recession periods with probit models. We employ both classical recession predictors and common factors based on a large panel of financial and macroeconomic variables as control variables. Our findings suggest that a number of credit variables...

Papers of a Canadian Institute conference on successfully managing counter party credit risk : fundamentals and essentials for the energy industry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2003-01-01

The main focus of this conference is the management of credit risk for major energy trading and marketing companies. The papers deal with pertinent issues such as the development and implementation of corporate credit risk management policy, credit risk exposure reporting systems, and the quality of ratings in the utility sector. Risk management strategies include quantitative and subjective credit factors, credit scoring, risk mitigation, limit-setting methodologies, measurement of liquidity, capital markets access, portfolio management, and the development of policies, procedures and control. Three presentations were indexed separately for inclusion in the database. refs., tabs., figs

Papers of a Canadian Institute conference on successfully managing counter party credit risk : fundamentals and essentials for the energy industry

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2003-07-01

The main focus of this conference is the management of credit risk for major energy trading and marketing companies. The papers deal with pertinent issues such as the development and implementation of corporate credit risk management policy, credit risk exposure reporting systems, and the quality of ratings in the utility sector. Risk management strategies include quantitative and subjective credit factors, credit scoring, risk mitigation, limit-setting methodologies, measurement of liquidity, capital markets access, portfolio management, and the development of policies, procedures and control. Three presentations were indexed separately for inclusion in the database. refs., tabs., figs.

A Pruning Neural Network Model in Credit Classification Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yajiao Tang

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Nowadays, credit classification models are widely applied because they can help financial decision-makers to handle credit classification issues. Among them, artificial neural networks (ANNs have been widely accepted as the convincing methods in the credit industry. In this paper, we propose a pruning neural network (PNN and apply it to solve credit classification problem by adopting the well-known Australian and Japanese credit datasets. The model is inspired by synaptic nonlinearity of a dendritic tree in a biological neural model. And it is trained by an error back-propagation algorithm. The model is capable of realizing a neuronal pruning function by removing the superfluous synapses and useless dendrites and forms a tidy dendritic morphology at the end of learning. Furthermore, we utilize logic circuits (LCs to simulate the dendritic structures successfully which makes PNN be implemented on the hardware effectively. The statistical results of our experiments have verified that PNN obtains superior performance in comparison with other classical algorithms in terms of accuracy and computational efficiency.

Customer classification in banking system of Iran based on the credit risk model using multi-criteria decision-making models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Khalil Khalili

2015-11-01

Full Text Available One of the most important factors of survival of financial institutes and banks in the current competitive markets is to create balance and equality among resources and consumptions as well as to keep the health of money circulation in these institutes. According to the experiences obtained from recent financial crises in the world. The lack of appropriate management of the demands of banks and financial institutions can be considered as one of the main factors of occurrence of this crisis. The objective of the present study is to identify and classify customers according to credit risk and decisions of predictive models. The present research is a survey research employing field study in terms of the data collection method. The method of collecting theoretical framework was library research and the data were collected by two ways of data of a questionnaire and real customers’ financial data. To analyze the data of the questionnaire, analytical hierarchy process and to analyze real customers’ financial data, the TOPSIS method were employed. The population of the study included files of real customers in one of the branches of RefahKargaran Bank in city of Tabriz, Iran. From among 800 files, 140 files were completed and using Morgan’s table, 103 files were investigated. The final model was presented and with 95% of probability, if the next customer’s data is entered the model, it will capable of identifying accurately the degree of customer risk.

Credit networks and systemic risk of Chinese local financing platforms: Too central or too big to fail?. -based on different credit correlations using hierarchical methods

Science.gov (United States)

He, Fang; Chen, Xi

2016-11-01

The accelerating accumulation and risk concentration of Chinese local financing platforms debts have attracted wide attention throughout the world. Due to the network of financial exposures among institutions, the failure of several platforms or regions of systemic importance will probably trigger systemic risk and destabilize the financial system. However, the complex network of credit relationships in Chinese local financing platforms at the state level remains unknown. To fill this gap, we presented the first complex networks and hierarchical cluster analysis of the credit market of Chinese local financing platforms using the ;bottom up; method from firm-level data. Based on balance-sheet channel, we analyzed the topology and taxonomy by applying the analysis paradigm of subdominant ultra-metric space to an empirical data in 2013. It is remarked that we chose to extract the network of co-financed financing platforms in order to evaluate the effect of risk contagion from platforms to bank system. We used the new credit similarity measure by combining the factor of connectivity and size, to extract minimal spanning trees (MSTs) and hierarchical trees (HTs). We found that: (1) the degree distributions of credit correlation backbone structure of Chinese local financing platforms are fat tailed, and the structure is unstable with respect to targeted failures; (2) the backbone is highly hierarchical, and largely explained by the geographic region; (3) the credit correlation backbone structure based on connectivity and size is significantly heterogeneous; (4) key platforms and regions of systemic importance, and contagion path of systemic risk are obtained, which are contributed to preventing systemic risk and regional risk of Chinese local financing platforms and preserving financial stability under the framework of macro prudential supervision. Our approach of credit similarity measure provides a means of recognizing ;systemically important; institutions and regions

Credit risk transfer activities and systemic risk : How banks became less risky individually but posed greater risks to the financial system at the same time

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wagner, W.B.; Nijskens, R.G.M.

2011-01-01

A main cause of the crisis of 2007–2009 is the various ways through which banks have transferred credit risk in the financial system. We study the systematic risk of banks before the crisis, using two samples of banks respectively trading Credit Default Swaps (CDS) and issuing Collateralized Loan

Exchange credit risk: Measurement and implications on the stability of partially dollarized financial systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ernesto Mordecki

2013-06-01

Full Text Available Some emergent economies present a high financial dollarization in loans and deposits, generating a specific risk in the banking activity. We quantify this exchange credit risk as the price of an option equivalent to this loan, and discuss the financial stability implications due to the (implicit issuance of these options. The exchange rate is modeled through a Levy process. The depth of the market depends on the type of the currencies involved. Whenever possible, we depart from option prices to calibrate a model, like in the EUR/USD market. But if the market is not liquid, as the USD/UYU market, we provide alternative pricing methodologies.

Credit Risk Determinants in Banking Sector: A Comparative Analysis of the PIB (Pakistan, India and Bangladesh

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Muhammad Waqas

2017-02-01

Full Text Available The aim of the empirical study is to investigate credit risk determinants in banking sectors across three kinds of South Asian economies. An accumulated sample of 105 unbalanced panel data of financial firms over the period of 2000-2015, by applying General Method of Moment (GMM estimation techniques one-step at the difference in order to identify factors influencing credit risk. This study is inspired by two broad categories of explanatory variables which are bank-specific and macroeconomic. Bank-specific factors influencing unsystematic risk, while macroeconomic factors promoting systematic risk. The study uses a proxy of non-performing loans for credit risk in banking sectors of Pakistan, India, and Bangladesh. The empirical results have been found aligned with theoretical arguments and literature as expected. In comparison, NPLs in Pakistan is greater than India and Bangladesh, while India has the lowest ratio of non-performing loans. The study documents that bank-specific factors (inefficiency, profitability, capital ratio and leverage have a significant contribution towards credit risk. Further, the study also finds a significant impact of macroeconomic variables on non-performing loans. While, the result in the case of Bangladesh predict contradictions, that have no significant effect on non-performing loans at various level. The overall results indicate that credit risk is not influenced by only external factors but also affect by internal factors like bad management and skimping etc.

Analisis Model Peramalan Status Kredit Kendaraan Bermotor pada Astra Credit Companies (ACC Cabang X Periode 2011

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tomy G. Soemapradja

2012-05-01

Full Text Available In order to increasing revenue, credit and financial institution, especially, automotive financing, gave lower interest rate. This, of course, will impact to the costumer with higher opportunity to have their dream which facilitated by those institutions. Despites to all economic risks and sales targets, credit and financial institutions have to empower their credit monitoring to anticipate earlier of credit defaults. Inspired by Altman’s research in 1968, about predicting bankruptcy of US companies, this research has purpose to determine which variable that significantly to the car loan status at Astra Credit Companies (ACC, and further continue to arrange prediction model of loan status and measure it’s accuracy level.. The statistic test shows there are 2 independent variables affect to dependent variable significantly, where model’s accuracy level achieves 100%.

Islamic Credit Risk Analysis Case Of Sudanese Banking Sector 2006-2014

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mohammed A. SirElkhatim

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Islamic banking system has been expanding so quickly over the past few years. Moreover it has been developing significantly around the non-Muslim territories including Middle Eastern countries Southeast Asian countries and European countries and even in North American countries. The existing of Islamic banks is to attract the customers who seek to avoid interest. The prediction of corporate bankruptcies is an Important and widely studied topic since it can have significant impact on bank lending decisions and profitability the ultimate purpose of credit risk management is to ensure that credit fund is of safety profitability and fluidity. At present it is extremely important of commercial banks to set up an early bank risk warning system.

Credit derivatives in emerging markets

OpenAIRE

Romain Rancière

2002-01-01

Credit Derivatives are securities that offer protection against credit or default risk of bonds or loans. The credit derivatives emerging market has grown rapidly and credit derivatives are widely used. This paper describes the emerging credit derivatives market structure. The current market activity is analyzed through elementary pricing dynamics and the study of the term structure of default risk. Focusing on the performance of credit derivatives in stress situation, including legal and mar...

26 CFR 5c.168(f)(8)-7 - Reporting of income, deductions and investment tax credit; at risk rules.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... tax credit; at risk rules. 5c.168(f)(8)-7 Section 5c.168(f)(8)-7 Internal Revenue INTERNAL REVENUE... investment tax credit; at risk rules. (a) In general. The fact that the lessor's payments of interest and... property shall be limited to the extent the at risk rules under the investment tax credit provisions and...

Willingness to Overpay for Insurance and for Consumer Credit: Search and Risk Behavior Under Price Dispersion

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sergey MALAKHOV

2014-11-01

Full Text Available When income growth under price dispersion reduces the time of search and raises prices of purchases, the increase in purchase price can be presented as the increase in the willingness to pay for insurance or the willingness to pay for consumer credit. The optimal consumer decision represents the trade-off between the propensity to search for beneficial insurance or consumer credit, and marginal savings on insurance policy or consumer credit. Under price dispersion the indirect utility function takes the form of cubic parabola, where the risk aversion behavior ends at the saddle point of the comprehensive insurance or the complete consumer credit. The comparative static analysis of the saddle point of the utility function discovers the ambiguity of the departure from risk-neutrality. This ambiguity can produce the ordinary risk seeking behavior as well as mathematical catastrophes of Veblen-effect’s imprudence and over prudence of family altruism. The comeback to risk aversion is also ambiguous and it results either in increasing or in decreasing relative risk aversion. The paper argues that the decreasing relative risk aversion comes to the optimum quantity of money.

The Application of DEA Method in Evaluating Credit Risk of Companies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anna Feruś

2010-12-01

Full Text Available The subject of the present article is a new procedure forecasting credit risk of companies in Polish economy environment. What favors the suggested approach is the fact that in Poland, unlike in western countries, DEA method has not yet been implemented in order to assess credit risk that companies face. The research described in the article has been conducted on the basis of comparison of suggested DEA method with currently used procedures, namely point method, discriminative analysis and linear regression. Considering the research, it can be concluded that DEA method facilitates forecasting financial problems, including bankruptcy of companies in Polish economic conditions, and its effectiveness is comparable or even greater than approaches implemented so far.  

A risk evaluation model and its application in online retailing trustfulness

Science.gov (United States)

Ye, Ruyi; Xu, Yingcheng

2017-08-01

Building a general model for risks evaluation in advance could improve the convenience, normality and comparability of the results of repeating risks evaluation in the case that the repeating risks evaluating are in the same area and for a similar purpose. One of the most convenient and common risks evaluation models is an index system including of several index, according weights and crediting method. One method to build a risk evaluation index system that guarantees the proportional relationship between the resulting credit and the expected risk loss is proposed and an application example is provided in online retailing in this article.

Bankruptcy prediction for credit risk using neural networks: a survey and new results.

Science.gov (United States)

Atiya, A F

2001-01-01

The prediction of corporate bankruptcies is an important and widely studied topic since it can have significant impact on bank lending decisions and profitability. This work presents two contributions. First we review the topic of bankruptcy prediction, with emphasis on neural-network (NN) models. Second, we develop an NN bankruptcy prediction model. Inspired by one of the traditional credit risk models developed by Merton (1974), we propose novel indicators for the NN system. We show that the use of these indicators in addition to traditional financial ratio indicators provides a significant improvement in the (out-of-sample) prediction accuracy (from 81.46% to 85.5% for a three-year-ahead forecast).

75 FR 64785 - Corporate Credit Unions

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-20

... management (ALM) and credit risk, and whether to make modifications in the area of corporate governance. NCUA... the revisions, an analysis of how the final investment, credit risk, and asset liability provisions..., credit risk, ALM, liquidity, and capital measures that together should greatly reduce the systemic risk...

The Effect of Credit Risk and Capital Adequacy on the Profitability of Rural Banks in the Philippines

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mendoza Rufo

2017-03-01

Full Text Available This paper examines the credit risk and capital adequacy of the 567 rural banks in the Philippines to investigate how both variables affect bank profitability. Using the Arellano-Bond estimator, we found out that credit risk has a negative and statistically significant relationship with profitability. However, empirical analysis showed that capital adequacy has no significant impact on the profitability of rural banks in the Philippines. It is therefore necessary for the rural banks to examine more deeply if capital infusion would result in higher profitability than increasing debts. The study also implies that it is imperative for the banks to understand which risk factors have greater impact on their financial performance and use better risk-adjusted performance measurement to support their strategies. Rural banks should establish credit risk management that defines the process from initiation to approval of loans, taking into consideration the sound credit risk management practices issued by regulatory bodies. Moreover, rural banks need to enhance internal control measures to ensure the strict implementation of internal processes on lending operations.

Credit card debt, stress and key health risk behaviors among college students.

Science.gov (United States)

Nelson, Melissa C; Lust, Katherine; Story, Mary; Ehlinger, Ed

2008-01-01

To examine cross-sectional associations between credit card debt, stress, and health risk behaviors among college students, focusing particularly on weight-related behaviors. Random-sample, mailed survey. Undergraduate and graduate students (n = 3206) attending a large public university. Self-reported health indicators (e.g., weight, height, physical activity, diet, weight control, stress, credit card debt). More than 23% of students reported credit card debt > or = $1000. Using Poisson regression to predict relative risks (RR) of health behaviors, debt of at least $1000 was associated with nearly every risk indicator tested, including overweight/obesity, insufficient physical activity, excess television viewing, infrequent breakfast consumption, fast food consumption, unhealthy weight control, body dissatisfaction, binge drinking, substance use, and violence. For example, adjusted RR [ARR] ranged from 1.09 (95% Confidence interval [CI]: 1.02-1.17) for insufficient vigorous activity to 2.17 (CI: 0.68-2.82) for using drugs other than marijuana in the past 30 days. Poor stress management was also a robust indicator of health risk. University student lifestyles may be characterized by a variety of coexisting risk factors. These findings indicate that both debt and stress were associated with wide-ranging adverse health indicators. Intervention strategies targeting at-risk student populations need to be tailored to work within the context of the many challenges of college life, which may serve as barriers to healthy lifestyles. Increased health promotion efforts targeting stress, financial management, and weight-related health behaviors may be needed to enhance wellness among young adults.

THE MANAGEMENT OF CREDIT RISK ACCORDING TO INTERNAL RATINGS- BASED APPROACH

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

BOLOCAN DRAGOS-MIHAIL

2010-12-01

Full Text Available The internal ratings based approach (IRB Approach was created as part of Basel II replacing the original Basle Accord of 1988 (Basle I in an effort to create a better framework for regulating bank capital. This paper covers the methodology and components of the IRB Approach used to determine capital requirements for credit risk. Such an approach, which relies heavily upon a banks internal assessment of its counterparties and exposures, can secure two key objectives consistent with those which support the wider review of The New Basel Capital Accord.. IRB approach should promote safety and soundness in the financial system and, consistent with providing incentive compatibility, that the structure and requirements of the IRB approach do not impinge upon or undermine banks well-established lending and credit risk management practices

A Generalized Partial Credit Model: Application of an EM Algorithm.

Science.gov (United States)

Muraki, Eiji

1992-01-01

The partial credit model with a varying slope parameter is developed and called the generalized partial credit model (GPCM). Analysis results for simulated data by this and other polytomous item-response models demonstrate that the rating formulation of the GPCM is adaptable to the analysis of polytomous item responses. (SLD)

Credit concession through credit scoring: Analysis and application proposal

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Oriol Amat

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Purpose: The study herein develops and tests a credit scoring model which can help financial institutions in assessing credit requests.  Design/methodology/approach: The empirical study has the objective of answering two questions: (1 Which ratios better discriminate the companies based on their being solvent or insolvent? and (2 What is the relative importance of these ratios? To do this, several statistical techniques with a multifactorial focus have been used (Multivariate Analysis of Variance, Linear Discriminant Analysis, Logit and Probit Models. Several samples of companies have been used in order to obtain and to test the model.  Findings: Through the application of several statistical techniques, the credit scoring model has been proved to be effective in discriminating between good and bad creditors.  Research limitations:  This study focuses on manufacturing, commercial and services companies of all sizes in Spain; Therefore, the conclusions may differ for other geographical locations. Practical implications:  Because credit is one of the main drivers of growth, a solid credit scoring model can help financial institutions assessing to whom to grant credit and to whom not to grant credit. Social implications: Because of the growing importance of credit for our society and the fear of granting it due to the latest financial turmoil, a solid credit scoring model can strengthen the trust toward the financial institutions assessment’s.  Originality/value: There is already a stream of literature related to credit scoring. However, this paper focuses on Spanish firms and proves the results of our model based on real data. The application of the model to detect the probability of default in loans is original.

Management control of credit risk in the bank lending process

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Scheffer, S.B.

2004-01-01

Management control of credit risk in the bank lending processA casestudy to explore improvements from a managerial perspectiveAt the start of this project -back in 1998- new technologies and ideas were emerging among a new generation of financial engineering professionals who have been applying

12 CFR 614.4125 - Funding and discount relationships between Farm Credit Banks or agricultural credit banks and...

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

..., Risk Management, Farm Credit System Insurance Corporation. (f) A direct lender association shall... Administration office that the Chief Examiner designates, and the Director, Risk Management, Farm Credit System... Credit Banks or agricultural credit banks and direct lender associations. 614.4125 Section 614.4125 Banks...

The Impact of the FOMC's Monetary Policy Actions on the growth of Credit Risk: the Monetary Policy - Liquidity Paradox

OpenAIRE

Kwamie Dunbar

2008-01-01

Credit risk is influenced by interest rates and market liquidity. This paper examines the direct and indirect impacts of unexpected monetary policy shifts on the growth of corporate credit risk, with the aim of quantifying the size and direction of the response. The results surprisingly indicate that monetary policy and liquidity impulses move counter to each other in their effects on credit risk ("The monetary policy-liquidity paradox"). The analysis indicates that while contractionary monet...

76 FR 79531 - Corporate Credit Unions

Science.gov (United States)

2011-12-22

... exclude CLF stock subscriptions, based on the asset's negligible credit risk and to facilitate corporate... removing paragraphs (c)(3) and (f)(4) and adding paragraph (h) to read as follows: Sec. 704.6 Credit risk... NATIONAL CREDIT UNION ADMINISTRATION 12 CFR Part 704 RIN 3133-AD95 Corporate Credit Unions AGENCY...

Testing the generalized partial credit model

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Glas, Cornelis A.W.

1996-01-01

The partial credit model (PCM) (G.N. Masters, 1982) can be viewed as a generalization of the Rasch model for dichotomous items to the case of polytomous items. In many cases, the PCM is too restrictive to fit the data. Several generalizations of the PCM have been proposed. In this paper, a

17 CFR 240.15c3-1f - Optional market and credit risk requirements for OTC derivatives dealers (Appendix F to 17 CFR...

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... charges for market and credit risk pursuant to this Appendix F in lieu of computing securities haircuts...)(2)(vi). Credit Risk (d) The capital charge for credit risk arising from an OTC derivatives dealer's... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 3 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Optional market and credit...

Pre-counseling education for low literacy women at risk of Hereditary Breast and Ovarian Cancer (HBOC): patient experiences using the Cancer Risk Education Intervention Tool (CREdIT).

Science.gov (United States)

Joseph, Galen; Beattie, Mary S; Lee, Robin; Braithwaite, Dejana; Wilcox, Carolina; Metrikin, Maya; Lamvik, Kate; Luce, Judith

2010-10-01

The Cancer Risk Education Intervention Tool (CREdIT) is a computer-based (non-interactive) slide presentation designed to educate low-literacy, and ethnically and racially diverse public hospital patients at risk of Hereditary Breast and Ovarian Cancer (HBOC) about genetics. To qualitatively evaluate participants' experience with and perceptions of a genetic education program as an adjunct to genetic counseling, we conducted direct observations of the intervention, semi-structured in person interviews with 11 women who viewed CREdIT, and post-counseling questionnaires with the two participating genetic counselors. Five themes emerged from the analysis of interviews: (1) genetic counseling and testing for breast/ovarian cancer was a new concept; (2) CREdIT's story format was particularly appealing; (3) changes in participants' perceived risk for breast cancer varied; (4) some misunderstandings about individual risk and heredity persisted after CREdIT and counseling; (5) the context for viewing CREdIT shaped responses to the presentation. Observations demonstrated ways to make the information provided in CREdIT and by genetic counselors more consistent. In a post-session counselor questionnaire, counselors' rating of the patient's preparedness before the session was significantly higher for patients who viewed CREdIT prior to their appointments than for other patients. This novel educational tool fills a gap in HBOC education by tailoring information to women of lower literacy and diverse ethnic/racial backgrounds. The tool was well received by interview participants and counselors alike. Further study is needed to examine the varied effects of CREdIT on risk perception. In addition, the implementation of CREdIT in diverse clinical settings and the cultural adaptation of CREdIT to specific populations reflect important areas for future work.

Introduction of Credit Derivatives and Valuation of Credit Default Swap

OpenAIRE

Han, Lu

2006-01-01

The credit derivative market was established at the beginning of the 1990s since the emergence of credit derivatives fits the rapid development of the whole derivatives market. However, compare to other derivative market, this market is still small and incomplete. As with other derivatives, credit derivatives can be used to either take more risk or hedge it, hence various credit derivatives instruments are accepted and widely used by market participants such as banks, insurance companies, etc...

Credit Card Risk Behavior on College Campuses: Evidence from Brazil

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wesley Mendes-da-Silva

2012-07-01

Full Text Available College students frequently show they have little skill when it comes to using a credit card in a responsible manner. This article deals with this issue in an emerging market and in a pioneering manner. University students (n = 769 in São Paulo, Brazil’s main financial center, replied to a questionnaire about their credit card use habits. Using Logit models, associations were discovered between personal characteristics and credit card use habits that involve financially risky behavior. The main results were: (a a larger number of credit cards increases the probability of risky behavior; (b students who alleged they knew what interest rates the card administrators were charging were less inclined to engage in risky behavior. The results are of interest to the financial industry, to university managers and to policy makers. This article points to the advisability, indeed necessity, of providing students with information about the use of financial products (notably credit cards bearing in mind the high interest rates which their users are charged. The findings regarding student behavior in the use of credit cards in emerging economies are both significant and relevant. Furthermore, financial literature, while recognizing the importance of the topic, has not significantly examined the phenomenon in emerging economies.

76 FR 54991 - Corporate Credit Unions

Science.gov (United States)

2011-09-06

... believes the credit risk of carrying this asset is negligible and warrants such treatment, as CLF stock is... credit union excludes the consolidated assets of such programs from risk-weighted assets pursuant to... paragraphs (c)(3) and (f)(4) and adding new p(h) to read as follows: Sec. 704.6 Credit risk management...

THE EFFECT OF CREDIT LINES AND RISKS ON OPERATIONS OF ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

credit risks that had weakened the microfinance sub sector and its ability to achieve ... Institutional structures for the provision of microcredit vary and may be ... Most of these poor people also earn low income and they are .... They lack access to ... are women, poorly trained and playing dual roles of provider and caregiver.

Information Asymmetry and Credit Risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lorena TUPANGIU

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Information asymmetry defines relationships where an agent holds information while another does not hold it. Thus, to the extent that one of the parties to the financing agreement has information more or less accurate than another, the asymmetry of information appears to be a major constraint in the financing of a project. Banks, in their capacity of financial intermediary, operate the transfer of funds to agents in need of financing, to the borrowers, being necessary in this process to have more information in order to benefit of expertise in assessing borrowers. The research of information asymmetry and credit risk consists of interrogating the following aspects: information issues between the bank and borrowers; settlement of information issues; bank’s activism towards information asymmetry. In our approach we will look at the first aspect, namely the information issues between the bank and the borrowers.

Credit Risk Versus Performance in the Romanian Banking System

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sbârcea Ioana Raluca

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The Romanian banking sector, predominantly governed by the capital of foreign banks, is, as well as other international banking sectors, under the sign of the necessary balance that should exist between risk and performance. This is a result of banks trying to take risks that they can control, given that they need to generate financial results that are satisfactory for all categories of bank creditors, namely shareholders, depositors and other lenders. In this paper, I wanted to analyze the risk situation assumed by the main banks in the system versus the performance gained in recent years. This article is part of a wider research, so I will refer only to the main risk assumed by a bank, namely the credit risk, I will highlight the evolution of the indicators of this risk, so that I can finally analyze their degree of correlation with indicators for measuring bank performance. The situation of other financial risks in banking activity will be addressed in other works.

Formation of borrower’s bank credit scoring integrated model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

O.V. Lysenok

2017-03-01

Full Text Available The article proposes the borrower’s bank credit scoring model that is of particular relevance in an unstable world and Ukrainian financial markets. The essence of this integrated model is the consistent definition of indicators, which analyze the financial and economic situation and development of scoring that allows to calculate overall index, that is, the integral factor of credit scoring level of the bank to calculate which one uses the formed set of factors characterizing riskiness, profitability and liquidity of the banking institution. The author determines the factors according to their functional purpose; the former ones are divided into four groups: capital adequacy, loan portfolio quality, profitability and liquidity. Each group consists of four indicators; each indicator is assigned thresholds to determine the appropriate credit scoring level of the bank for one or another direction. The higher is the value of the integral factor, the more efficient and less risky is the financial and economic activity of banks and the higher is their credit scoring level. The study concludes that the proposed model for bank credit scoring differs with its transparency and clarity due to use in its implementation only public information. The disadvantages include the presence of the subjective factor in assigning a certain number of points based on expert and normative methods.

77 FR 27255 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; ICE Clear Credit LLC; Order Approving Proposed Rule Change To...

Science.gov (United States)

2012-05-09

... Organizations; ICE Clear Credit LLC; Order Approving Proposed Rule Change To Reduce the Current Level of Risk Mutualization Among Clearing Participants and To Modify the Initial Margin Risk Model So That It Is Easier for... modifications to its risk model for clearing credit default swaps (``CDS'') contracts. For the first...

Retailer's optimal credit period and cycle time in a supply chain for deteriorating items with up-stream and down-stream trade credits

Science.gov (United States)

Mahata, Gour Chandra

2015-09-01

In practice, the supplier often offers the retailers a trade credit period and the retailer in turn provides a trade credit period to her/his customer to stimulate sales and reduce inventory. From the retailer's perspective, granting trade credit not only increases sales and revenue but also increases opportunity cost (i.e., the capital opportunity loss during credit period) and default risk (i.e., the percentage that the customer will not be able to pay off his/her debt obligations). Hence, how to determine credit period is increasingly recognized as an important strategy to increase retailer's profitability. Also, the selling items such as fruits, fresh fishes, gasoline, photographic films, pharmaceuticals and volatile liquids deteriorate continuously due to evaporation, obsolescence and spoilage. In this paper, we propose an economic order quantity model for the retailer where (1) the supplier provides an up-stream trade credit and the retailer also offers a down-stream trade credit, (2) the retailer's down-stream trade credit to the buyer not only increases sales and revenue but also opportunity cost and default risk, and (3) the selling items are perishable. Under these conditions, we model the retailer's inventory system as a profit maximization problem to determine the retailer's optimal replenishment decisions under the supply chain management. We then show that the retailer's optimal credit period and cycle time not only exist but also are unique. We deduce some previously published results of other researchers as special cases. Finally, we use some numerical examples to illustrate the theoretical results.

Some Considerations on the Partial Credit Model

Science.gov (United States)

Verhelst, N. D.; Verstralen, H. H. F. M.

2008-01-01

The Partial Credit Model (PCM) is sometimes interpreted as a model for stepwise solution of polytomously scored items, where the item parameters are interpreted as difficulties of the steps. It is argued that this interpretation is not justified. A model for stepwise solution is discussed. It is shown that the PCM is suited to model sums of binary…

Default risk modeling beyond the first-passage approximation: Extended Black-Cox model

Science.gov (United States)

Katz, Yuri A.; Shokhirev, Nikolai V.

2010-07-01

We develop a generalization of the Black-Cox structural model of default risk. The extended model captures uncertainty related to firm’s ability to avoid default even if company’s liabilities momentarily exceeding its assets. Diffusion in a linear potential with the radiation boundary condition is used to mimic a company’s default process. The exact solution of the corresponding Fokker-Planck equation allows for derivation of analytical expressions for the cumulative probability of default and the relevant hazard rate. Obtained closed formulas fit well the historical data on global corporate defaults and demonstrate the split behavior of credit spreads for bonds of companies in different categories of speculative-grade ratings with varying time to maturity. Introduction of the finite rate of default at the boundary improves valuation of credit risk for short time horizons, which is the key advantage of the proposed model. We also consider the influence of uncertainty in the initial distance to the default barrier on the outcome of the model and demonstrate that this additional source of incomplete information may be responsible for nonzero credit spreads for bonds with very short time to maturity.

Factors Affecting the Behavior of University Community to Use Credit Card

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Maya Sari

2011-12-01

Full Text Available This study was aimed to gain insights and tested the factors that influence credit cards usage in university community of UPI through Theory of Planned Behavior model approach. Using Path Analysis to explain the direct and indirect influence of attitude, subjective norm and behavioral control to intention and behavior of credit card usage. The results showed all respondents have a positive attitude towards credit cards usage, with high influence of subjective norm, high behavior control, high intention to use credit cards and all respondents used credit cards wisely. There was positive and significant effect either simultaneously or partially between behavioral attitudes, subjective norms, and behavior control toward the intention to use credit card. The partial test results showed behavioral attitude has the greatest influence on the intention to use credit card. There was a positive and significant influence both simultaneously and partially between behavioral attitudes, subjective norms, and behavioral control on default-risk debt behavior. The partial results showed that attitude gives the greatest influence on default debt risk behavior. The result also proved there was a positive and significant influence of the intention to use credit card on default debt risk behavior.

Testing the generalized partial credit model

OpenAIRE

Glas, Cornelis A.W.

1996-01-01

The partial credit model (PCM) (G.N. Masters, 1982) can be viewed as a generalization of the Rasch model for dichotomous items to the case of polytomous items. In many cases, the PCM is too restrictive to fit the data. Several generalizations of the PCM have been proposed. In this paper, a generalization of the PCM (GPCM), a further generalization of the one-parameter logistic model, is discussed. The model is defined and the conditional maximum likelihood procedure for the method is describe...

Risk, Credit, and Insurance in Peru: Field Experimental Evidence

OpenAIRE

Galarza, Francisco

2009-01-01

This paper reports the results of behavioral economic experiments conducted in Peru to examine the relationship amongst risk preferences, loan take-up, and insurance purchase decisions. This area-based yield insurance can help reduce people's vulnerability to large scale covariate shocks, and can also lower the loan default probability under extreme negative covariate shocks. In a context of collateralized formal credit markets, we provide suggestive evidence that insurance may help reduce th...

A Quantitative Approach to Credit Risk Management in the Underwriting Process for the Retail Portfolio

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Andreea Costea

2017-03-01

Full Text Available The core of this paper encloses a mathematical approach of credit risk management, based on a scorecard model used in the bank’s underwriting process. The main purpose of this paper is to present how to develop, validate and apply a rating model in practice. Using 21568 loan applications provided by one of the largest banks from Romania, a scorecard is built for the underwriting purposes. The customer data used in the modeling is based on socio-demographic characteristics. The model is developed according to a set of statistical methods for parameter estimation. A real-life example of how to use such a model in the strategic decisions of a bank is presented. The cut-off score for the acceptance of the applications is calibrated to a potential risk appetite of the main four banks in Romania. From an evaluative perspective, this paper is compatible with an exploratory approach to quantitative research methodology.

Oil Prices, Credit Risks in Banking Systems, and Macro-Financial Linkages across GCC Oil Exporters

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Saleh Alodayni

2016-11-01

Full Text Available This paper assesses the effect of the recent 2014–2015 oil price slump on the financial stability in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC region. The first objective of this paper is to assess how oil price shock propagates within the macroeconomy and how the macro shocks transmit to GCC banks’ balance sheets. This part of the paper implements a System Generalized Method of Moments (GMM and a Panel Fixed Effect Model to estimate the response of nonperforming loans (NPLs to its macroeconomic determinants. The second objective of this paper is to assess any negative feedback effects between the GCC banking systems and the economy. The paper, therefore, implements a Panel VAR model to explore the macro-financial linkages between GCC banking systems and the real economy. The results indicate that oil price, non-oil GDP, interest rate, stock prices, and housing prices are major determinants of NPLs across GCC banks and the overall financial stability in the region. Credit risk shock tends to propagate disturbances to non-oil GDP, credit growth, and stock prices across GCC economies. A higher level of NPLs restricts banks’ credit growth and can dampen economic growth in these economies. The results support the notion that disturbances in banking systems lead to unwanted economic consequences for the real sector.

FINANCIAL RISK IN CREDITS TO THE CONSUMPTION OF THE VENEZUELAN BANKING SYSTEM 2008-2015

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Carlos Manuel Díaz

2017-07-01

Full Text Available The objective of this research was to analyze the financial risk in the consumption credits of the banking system of Venezuela between 2008-2015. The theoretical support was made based on Cóndor & Cajamarca (2014, monitoring credit risk is essential to preserve the stability of the financial system. The type of research was descriptive with a longitudinal trend design. Consumer loans accounted for 21% of the banking economy; these loans grew at an annual average of 17%, the delinquency and total portfolio coverage indicators showed a downward trend. This shows that the profile of potential borrowers by banks has been successful.

Credit Scoring by Fuzzy Support Vector Machines with a Novel Membership Function

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Jian Shi

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Due to the recent financial crisis and European debt crisis, credit risk evaluation has become an increasingly important issue for financial institutions. Reliable credit scoring models are crucial for commercial banks to evaluate the financial performance of clients and have been widely studied in the fields of statistics and machine learning. In this paper a novel fuzzy support vector machine (SVM credit scoring model is proposed for credit risk analysis, in which fuzzy membership is adopted to indicate different contribution of each input point to the learning of SVM classification hyperplane. Considering the methodological consistency, support vector data description (SVDD is introduced to construct the fuzzy membership function and to reduce the effect of outliers and noises. The SVDD-based fuzzy SVM model is tested against the traditional fuzzy SVM on two real-world datasets and the research results confirm the effectiveness of the presented method.

Supply Chain Model with Stochastic Lead Time, Trade-Credit Financing, and Transportation Discounts

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Sung Jun Kim

2017-01-01

Full Text Available This model extends a two-echelon supply chain model by considering the trade-credit policy, transportations discount to make a coordination mechanism between transportation discounts, trade-credit financing, number of shipments, quality improvement of products, and reduced setup cost in such a way that the total cost of the whole system can be reduced, where the supplier offers trade-credit-period to the buyer. For buyer, the backorder rate is considered as variable. There are two investments to reduce setup cost and to improve quality of products. The model assumes lead time-dependent backorder rate, where the lead time is stochastic in nature. By using the trade-credit policy, the model gives how the credit-period would be determined to achieve the win-win outcome. An iterative algorithm is designed to obtain the global optimum results. Numerical example and sensitivity analysis are given to illustrate the model.

MODEL PENSKORAN PARTIAL CREDIT PADA BUTIR MULTIPLE TRUE-FALSE BIDANG FISIKA

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Wasis Wasis

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Tujuan penelitian ini menghasilkan model penskoran politomus untuk respons butir multiple true-false, sehingga dapat mengestimasi secara lebih akurat kemampuan di bidang fisika. Pengembangan penskoran menggunakan Four-D model dan diuji akurasinya melalui penelitian empiris dan simulasi. Penelitian empiris menggunakan 15 butir multiple true-false yang diambil dari soal UMPTN tahun 1996-2006 dan dikenakan pada 410 mahasiswa baru FMIPA Universitas Negeri Surabaya angkatan tahun 2007. Respons peserta tes diskor dengan tiga model partial credit (PCM I; II; dan III dan secara dikotomus. Hasil penskoran dianalisis dengan program Quest untuk mendapat-kan estimasi tingkat kesukaran butir (δ dan estimasi ke-mampuan peserta (θ untuk menentukan nilai fungsi informasi tes dan kesalahan baku estimasi. Penelitian simulasi mengguna-kan data bangkitan berdasarkan parameter empiris (δ dan θ memakai program statistik SAS dan akurasi estimasinya di-analisis dengan metode root mean squared error (RMSE. Hasil penelitian ini menunjukkan: (i Penskoran PCM dengan pem-bobotan mampu mengestimasi kemampuan lebih akurat di-bandingkan tanpa pembobotan maupun secara dikotomus; (ii Semakin banyak jumlah kategori dalam penskoran partial credit, semakin akurat. Kata kunci: model penskoran partial credit, butir multiple true-false ____________________________________________________________ THE PARTIAL CREDIT SCORING MODEL FOR THE MULTIPLE TRUE-FALSE BUTIRS IN PHYSICS Abstract This study is an attempt to overcome the weaknesses. This study aims to produce a polytomous scoring model for responses to multiple true-false butirs in order to get a more accurate estimation of abilities in physics. It adopts the Four-D model and its accuracy is assessed through empirical and simulation studies. The empirical study employed 15 multiple true-false butirs taken from the New Students Entrance Test of State University the year of 1996–2006. It administered to 410 new students enrolled

Credit Unions and Capital Adequacy: Managing Growth and Risk

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R. Raymond Sant PhD, CFA, CMA

2013-07-01

Full Text Available In this paper we argue that a financial institution needs to continuously monitor and assess its risk exposure in the context of capital requirements and available growth opportunities. Judicious management of the interaction between these three elements is crucial to the long term survival and growth of such an institution. We highlight different approaches to risk analysis, beyond stress testing, such as, Value at Risk and Monte Carlo simulation. We recommend that the board of directors establish a sub-committee of its directors to oversee risk management and capital control functions, and to monitor a credit union’s asset liability management activities on an ongoing basis. Efforts should also be made to increase the level of internal expertise regarding risk management and analysis with the full participation of the board, a function that should not be outsourced. In an increasingly regulated financial industry environment it is imperative that a financial institution seeks out growth opportunities while maintaining the balance between capital and risk exposure for long-term business continuity.

76 FR 79379 - Risk-Based Capital Guidelines: Market Risk; Alternatives to Credit Ratings for Debt and...

Science.gov (United States)

2011-12-21

..., China, France, Germany, Hong Kong SAR, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Korea, Luxembourg, Mexico, the..., the legislative history of section 939A focuses on the conflicts of interest of credit rating agencies... illustrates how CDS spreads and CRCs could be used together to assign specific risk-weighting factors. In...

Credit Risk Determinants in the Vulnerable Economies of Europe: Evidence from the Spanish Banking System

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Gila-Gourgoura, E.

2017-03-01

Full Text Available Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to investigate the determinants of non-performing loans in the Spanish banking system over the period 1997Q4–2015Q3. This timeframe includes not only the booming period for the Spanish economy but also an extended post-crises interval which is missing from other studies for Spain. Design/methodology/approach: Using quarterly data from the Central Bank of Spain and from the European Central Bank, the paper employs the ARDL approach to cointegration to identify the existence of a long or short-run relationship between NPLs and a set of macroeconomic, bank-related and country-specific indicators. Findings: Findings from the ARDL model indicate that macroeconomic, bank-specific variables and interest rates are important determinants of non-performing loans in the Spanish banking system. Specifically, the real GDP, the Spanish long-term government bond yield, the return on equity, the total credit granted by the Spanish banks and their capital to assets ratio, explain credit risk in Spain both in the short and the long run. Research limitations/implications: Data on the bank-specific variables are for the whole banking industry, and not for individual banks. If such data were available, a comparison of the credit risk determinants between small/ big banks, private/public or domestic/foreign could be possibly made. Originality/value: These findings provide useful evidence to bank managers and policymakers in dealing with loans' defaults in Spain and in undertaking crucial reforms to stabilize the economy.

Trade Credit Insurance and Asymmetric Information Problem

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Sokolovska Olena

2017-03-01

Full Text Available The presence of different risk factors in international trade gives evidence of the necessity of support in gaps that may affect exporters’ activity. To maximize the trade volumes and in the same time to minimize the exporters’ risks the stakeholders use trade credit insurance. The paper provides analysis of conceptual background of the trade credit insurance in the world. We analyzed briefly the problems, arising in insurance markets due to asymmetric information, such as adverse selection and moral hazard. Also we discuss the main stages of development of trade credit insurance in countries worldwide. Using comparative and graphical analysis we provide a brief evaluation of the dynamics of claims and recoveries for different forms of trade credit insurance. We found that the claims related to the commercial risk for medium and long trade credits in recent years exceed the recoveries, while with the political risk the reverse trend holds. And we originally consider these findings in terms of information asymmetry in the trade credit insurance differentiated by type of risk.

EFFICIENCY OF CREDIT PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT IN CONDITIONS OF ECONOMIC INSTABILITY

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Koshel H.

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Introduction. The active development of integration processes causes the necessity of applying high-level approaches to management of the banking system, which is an essential part of the financial sector. Due to the importance of credit operations in the portfolio of banking assets, development of efficient and flexible credit management system is the basis for financial and market stability of banks. Purpose. Analyze the condition of the credit portfolio of banking institutions under the influence of economic processes and make conclusions and recommendations about the effectiveness of managing the bank’s credit portfolio and generalize ways of improving the structure and quality of the bank’s credit portfolio. Results. Over the last six years, the quality of the credit portfolio has become worse because of the bad debts growing and, as a result, decreasing in revenues. The calculated coefficient of management efficiency of a credit portfolio shows the dependence of this indicator on the value of risk and yield. In order to confirm the dependence and determine the degree of influence of these indicators on the efficiency of management of a loan portfolio, an economic-mathematical model was constructed on the example of both individual banks and the banking system as a whole. Detected dependence of factors is quite logical, therefore, the model can be recommended for practical use. Conclusion. Using this method of determining the management efficiency of a credit portfolio will allow the management of the bank to make reasonable decisions. It will allow the possibility of forming a more justified credit portfolio, taking into account not only the profitability, but also the real level of risk of credit operations.

The Dilemmas over Credit Policy Management in a Company

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Maria Gorczyńska

2013-11-01

Full Text Available Purpose of the article: The paper identifies the core dilemmas over the establishment of the credit policy in a company. It considers the general scope and basic stages of credit policy management and analyses each stage of credit policy in terms of decisive aspects. The main areas of concerns are discussed within the settlement of credit policy and its implementation with regard to the model of optimal credit policy. Scientific aim: The paper aims at constructing a unified model of issues rising dilemmas while setting and implementing the credit policy management. It also aims at identifying core decisive problems in each of these fields and at providing a structured questions framework. Methodology/methods: The paper is based on conceptual analysis and deduction of the literature and general review of issues related to credit policy management. It containts autors’ own view on the problems included in each stage of credit policy management. Findings: Credit policy management is a subject for numerous dilemmas. The main areas of concerns are related to: the decision about the goal of credit policy managemet with regard to its restrictiveness, the settlement of credit policy with regard to elements of credit policy, and finally the implementation with regard to the risk of bad debts occurrence. Conclusions: (limits, implications etc The establishment of credit policy in a company requires to balance contrary interests and thus involves wide variety of issues to be considered. The presented model of decisive problems might be applied in each company regardless to their size.

Multiple challenges of risk management in EU credit institutions

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Constantinescu, A.

2011-01-01

Full Text Available This paper is intended to be a significant insight into risk management issues by describing the main types of such risks and by providing management and evaluation procedures of significant risks into some active banking companies in Romania. In times of crisis, risk management in the banking system has a greater importance than in the normal economic times. The 2011 was a year in which Romania has been hit by the repercussions of the international economic crisis. Using strategies against risks, implementing procedures to monitor and control risks, risk assessment and quantification can substantially reduce the financial losses of a company or those of a financial institution. Risk management is an integral part of all decision making and business processes from credit institutions, its purpose being to protect their sustainable development. The innovations on the financial market, the internationalization of the specific operations, and the pressure of the competition are just a few arguments that impose a permanent supervision of the general and specific risks. This is the main reason why is compulsory to find new methods of managing risks, to keep in consideration the identification, evaluation of the management and the control of the banking system and of each bank.

Credit Spread Modeling: Macro-financial versus HOC Approach

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Sanja Dudaković

2014-12-01

Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to throw light on the relationship between credit spread changes and past changes of U.S. macro-financial variables when invariants do not have Gaussian distribution. The first part presents the empirical analysis which is based on 10-year AAA corporate bond yields and 10-year Treasury bond yields. Explanatory variables include lagged U.S. leading index, Russell 2000 returns, BBB bond price changes interest rate swaps, exchange rates EUR/ USD, Repo rates, S& P 500 returns and S&P 500 volatility, Treasury bill changes, liquidity index-TRSW, LIBOR rates, Moody’s default rates; credit spread volatility and Treasury bills volatility. The proposed dynamical model explains 73% of the U.S. credit spread variance for the period 1999:07-2013:07. The second part of the article introduces the parameter estimation method based on higher order cumulants. It is demonstrated empirically that much of the information about variability of Credit Spread can be extracted from higher order cumulant function (85%.

A Semiparametric Time Trend Varying Coefficients Model: With An Application to Evaluate Credit Rationing in U.S. Credit Market

OpenAIRE

Jingping Gu; Paula Hernandez-Verme

2009-01-01

In this paper, we propose a new semiparametric varying coefficient model which extends the existing semi-parametric varying coefficient models to allow for a time trend regressor with smooth coefficient function. We propose to use the local linear method to estimate the coefficient functions and we provide the asymptotic theory to describe the asymptotic distribution of the local linear estimator. We present an application to evaluate credit rationing in the U.S. credit market. Using U.S. mon...

A Semiparametric Time Trend Varying Coefficients Model: With An Application to Evaluate Credit Rationing in U.S. Credit Market

OpenAIRE

Qi Gao; Jingping Gu; Paula Hernandez-Verme

2012-01-01

In this paper, we propose a new semiparametric varying coefficient model which extends the existing semi-parametric varying coefficient models to allow for a time trend regressor with smooth coefficient function. We propose to use the local linear method to estimate the coefficient functions and we provide the asymptotic theory to describe the asymptotic distribution of the local linear estimator. We present an application to evaluate credit rationing in the U.S. credit market. Using U.S. mon...

Some Considerations on the Partial Credit Model

OpenAIRE

H.H.F.M. Verstralen; N.D. Verhelst

2008-01-01

The Partial Credit Model (PCM) is sometimes interpreted as a model for stepwise solution of polytomously scored items, where the item parameters are interpreted as di culties of the steps. It is argued that this interpretation is not justi ed. A model for stepwise solution is discussed. It is shown that the PCM is suited to model sums of binary responses which are not supposed to be stochastically independent. As a practical result, a statistical test of sto...

Measuring Credit Capacity on Danish Farms Using DEA

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Friis Pedersen, Michael; Vesterlund Olsen, Jakob

2013-01-01

have important implications for risk management practice, investment and technology adoption and related policy issues. The method is limited by the possibility of strategic behavior of lenders during credit cycle busts. In credit cycle booms, the method gives a good basis for the estimates of change...... in credit reserves. Practical implications: In a period of increasing credit reserves, risk management institutions are unlikely to develop. Like agricultural policy, access to credit may crowd out market-based risk management. Originality/value: The study represents a novel application and interpretation......Purpose:The purpose of this paper is to introduce a novel measure of access to credit suited to estimate the relative change in credit reserves. Design/methodology/approach: A debt possibility frontier is estimated using data envelopment analysis and the Malmquist index is calculated. The Malmquist...

Advanced empirical estimate of information value for credit scoring models

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Martin Řezáč

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Credit scoring, it is a term for a wide spectrum of predictive models and their underlying techniques that aid financial institutions in granting credits. These methods decide who will get credit, how much credit they should get, and what further strategies will enhance the profitability of the borrowers to the lenders. Many statistical tools are avaiable for measuring quality, within the meaning of the predictive power, of credit scoring models. Because it is impossible to use a scoring model effectively without knowing how good it is, quality indexes like Gini, Kolmogorov-Smirnov statisic and Information value are used to assess quality of given credit scoring model. The paper deals primarily with the Information value, sometimes called divergency. Commonly it is computed by discretisation of data into bins using deciles. One constraint is required to be met in this case. Number of cases have to be nonzero for all bins. If this constraint is not fulfilled there are some practical procedures for preserving finite results. As an alternative method to the empirical estimates one can use the kernel smoothing theory, which allows to estimate unknown densities and consequently, using some numerical method for integration, to estimate value of the Information value. The main contribution of this paper is a proposal and description of the empirical estimate with supervised interval selection. This advanced estimate is based on requirement to have at least k, where k is a positive integer, observations of socres of both good and bad client in each considered interval. A simulation study shows that this estimate outperform both the empirical estimate using deciles and the kernel estimate. Furthermore it shows high dependency on choice of the parameter k. If we choose too small value, we get overestimated value of the Information value, and vice versa. Adjusted square root of number of bad clients seems to be a reasonable compromise.

Response Styles in the Partial Credit Model

OpenAIRE

Tutz, Gerhard; Schauberger, Gunther; Berger, Moritz

2016-01-01

In the modelling of ordinal responses in psychological measurement and survey- based research, response styles that represent specific answering patterns of respondents are typically ignored. One consequence is that estimates of item parameters can be poor and considerably biased. The focus here is on the modelling of a tendency to extreme or middle categories. An extension of the Partial Credit Model is proposed that explicitly accounts for this specific response style. In contrast to exi...

Strategic Importance of Credit Risk Management to Shareholders’ Wealth-Sustanance in Nigerian Banks: an Empirical Analysis

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Adebisi Sunday Abayomi

2012-02-01

Full Text Available This study highlighted the roles and strategic importance of credit risk management in thebanking industry vis-à-vis sustenance of shareholders’ wealth. The authors examined whether areduction in the non-performing credits in banks’ loan portfolio will reveal a possible correlationbetween effective credit risk management administration and shareholder’s wealth. In testing this,secondary data were sourced from the randomly selected five banks financials (between the period of2006 to 2010 with the use of relevant ratios. Twohypotheses were tested using multiple regressionand correlation method. The result of hypothesis one showed that the calculated r – statistics (r =.429,p<0.05 was greater than the tabulated r – statistics (r =.381 showing that the test was significantat0.05 alpha level. The result of hypothesis two alsoshowed that the calculated r-statistics (r=.403,p<0.05 was greater than tabulated r-statistics (r=.381 at 0.05 level of significance which impliedthat, there was a significant relationship betweencredit risk management and shareholders’ wealth.Based on these results, the authors recommended that, the banking sector should strive to employobjective standards of professionalism, experienceand high integrity in placement of managers whoare responsible for managing the credit portfolios;for this will largely influence the quality of riskassets management and debt recovery which will in-turn engender confidence in the banking industryand ensure the sustenance of shareholders’ wealth and investment.

49 CFR 260.13 - Credit reform.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... appropriations, direct payment of a Credit Risk Premium by the Applicant or a non-Federal infrastructure partner... 49 Transportation 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Credit reform. 260.13 Section 260.13... REHABILITATION AND IMPROVEMENT FINANCING PROGRAM Overview § 260.13 Credit reform. The Federal Credit Reform Act...

Comparison of different methods of credit risk management of the commercial bank to accelerate lending activities for SME segment

OpenAIRE

Cipovová, Eva; Dlasková, Gabriela

2016-01-01

The contribution is dealing with selected assessments of the most important risk in the banking sector in the Czech Republic. The aim of this article was to quantify capital requirement for individual methodologies of credit risk management on the designed portfolio with corporate loans with use of collateral using collaterals as techniques to reduce credit risk of commercial bank. Firstly, the aim of this article is to quantify the capital requirements using the Internal Rating Based Approac...

Conference Innovations in Derivatives Market : Fixed Income Modeling, Valuation Adjustments, Risk Management, and Regulation

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Grbac, Zorana; Scherer, Matthias; Zagst, Rudi

2016-01-01

This book presents 20 peer-reviewed chapters on current aspects of derivatives markets and derivative pricing. The contributions, written by leading researchers in the field as well as experienced authors from the financial industry, present the state of the art in: • Modeling counterparty credit risk: credit valuation adjustment, debit valuation adjustment, funding valuation adjustment, and wrong way risk. • Pricing and hedging in fixed-income markets and multi-curve interest-rate modeling. • Recent developments concerning contingent convertible bonds, the measuring of basis spreads, and the modeling of implied correlations. The recent financial crisis has cast tremendous doubts on the classical view on derivative pricing. Now, counterparty credit risk and liquidity issues are integral aspects of a prudent valuation procedure and the reference interest rates are represented by a multitude of curves according to their different periods and maturities. A panel discussion included in the book (featuring D...

The Effect of Graduation Coaches and Credit Recovery Programs on the Dropout Rate of At-Risk Grade 9 Students

Science.gov (United States)

Bowling, Jan

2013-01-01

The objective of this study was to identify the characteristics of effective graduation coaches (GCs) and credit recovery programs and explain the influence of a GC and a credit recovery program on Grade 9 students at risk of dropping out. The purpose of this study was to determine whether a high school GC and enrollment in a credit recovery…

Mechanism Analysis of Credit Risk Conduction of Goverment Departments under Public-PrivatePartnership%公私合作下政府部门信用风险传导机理分析

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

任志涛; 雷瑞波

2017-01-01

以风险共担、利益共享的理念剖析公私合作的内生机理,从系统视域构建公私合作下的政府部门信用风险的传导模型,揭示公私合作下政府部门信用风险的传导机理.研究表明公私合作模式所具有的信用风险内部化特征,促使政府部门信用风险沿着微分动力系统的演变轨迹进行传导,系统均衡状态的均衡点就是信用风险在政府和社会资本之间最优的配置点.在上述基础上,设计公私合作模式下政府部门信用风险管控机制.%This paper analyzes the endogenous mechanism of public-private partnerships based on the concept of risk sharing and benefit sharing. Then,constructs the conduction model of credit risk of government departments under public-private partnership from the point of view of system,andreveals the conduction mechanism of credit risk of government departments under public-private partnership. Research shows that the characteristics of internal credit risk model of public-private partnership promote the government credit risk to conduct along the evolution track of a differential dynamic system,the equilibrium point of system equilibrium state is the optimal allocation point of credit risk between government and social capital. On this basis,designs the credit risk control mechanism of government departments under public-private partnership.

A user credit assessment model based on clustering ensemble for broadband network new media service supervision

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Fang; Cao, San-xing; Lu, Rui

2012-04-01

This paper proposes a user credit assessment model based on clustering ensemble aiming to solve the problem that users illegally spread pirated and pornographic media contents within the user self-service oriented broadband network new media platforms. Its idea is to do the new media user credit assessment by establishing indices system based on user credit behaviors, and the illegal users could be found according to the credit assessment results, thus to curb the bad videos and audios transmitted on the network. The user credit assessment model based on clustering ensemble proposed by this paper which integrates the advantages that swarm intelligence clustering is suitable for user credit behavior analysis and K-means clustering could eliminate the scattered users existed in the result of swarm intelligence clustering, thus to realize all the users' credit classification automatically. The model's effective verification experiments are accomplished which are based on standard credit application dataset in UCI machine learning repository, and the statistical results of a comparative experiment with a single model of swarm intelligence clustering indicates this clustering ensemble model has a stronger creditworthiness distinguishing ability, especially in the aspect of predicting to find user clusters with the best credit and worst credit, which will facilitate the operators to take incentive measures or punitive measures accurately. Besides, compared with the experimental results of Logistic regression based model under the same conditions, this clustering ensemble model is robustness and has better prediction accuracy.

Fitting and Testing Conditional Multinormal Partial Credit Models

Science.gov (United States)

Hessen, David J.

2012-01-01

A multinormal partial credit model for factor analysis of polytomously scored items with ordered response categories is derived using an extension of the Dutch Identity (Holland in "Psychometrika" 55:5-18, 1990). In the model, latent variables are assumed to have a multivariate normal distribution conditional on unweighted sums of item…

Some Considerations on the Partial Credit Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

H.H.F.M. Verstralen

2008-01-01

Full Text Available The Partial Credit Model (PCM is sometimes interpreted as a model for stepwise solution of polytomously scored items, where the item parameters are interpreted as di culties of the steps. It is argued that this interpretation is not justi ed. A model for stepwise solution is discussed. It is shown that the PCM is suited to model sums of binary responses which are not supposed to be stochastically independent. As a practical result, a statistical test of stochastic independence in the Rasch model is derived

WERE OIL PRICE MARKETS THE SOURCE OF CREDIT CRISIS IN EUROPEAN COUNTRIES? EVIDENCE USING A VAR-MGARCH-DCC MODEL

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nadhem Selmi

2014-04-01

Full Text Available This paper examines the role of oil prices, credit, financial and commercial linkages in the propagation of industrial market crises during the period 2004-2012. Using VAR-MGARCH-DCC model regressions on seven markets finds that credit linkage played a significant role in the subprime, financial and global crises. Our results also show that the European debt crisis has already spread like a crisis from oil prices to Ireland and Portugal, and other countries are now at risk: Spain is a probable candidate for financial crisis.

Joint replenishment and credit policies under two levels of trade credit financing when demand and bad-debt loss depends upon credit period

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aggarawal K.K.

2016-01-01

Full Text Available In practice, a firm usually receives trade credit financing from its supplier on the purchase of inventory. Similarly, in order to meet competition and generate credit sales over and above cash sales, the firm also gives credit period to their customers. However, the decision of granting credit period may have a disintegrating effect on cash sales apart from generating new credit sales because some of the cash customers may switch to credit purchase. In addition, despite of the best credit granting policies and collection practices, the firm may incurs some amount of bad debt losses because a certain fraction of buyers will undoubtedly be unable to pay off their debt obligations and become bad debt loss to the firm. In this paper, using discounted cash flow (DCF approach, a mathematical model is developed to jointly determine optimal inventory and credit policies under two levels of trade credit financing when demand and bad-debt losses are dependent on credit period. The objective of the model is to maximize the present value of firm’s net profit per unit time by jointly optimizing the replenishment interval and date-terms credit period. Numerical examples and sensitivity analysis are presented to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed model, and the results are discussed.

Modeling Banking, Sovereign, and Macro Risk in a CCA Global VAR

OpenAIRE

Dale F. Gray

2013-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to develop a model framework for the analysis of interactions between banking sector risk, sovereign risk, corporate sector risk, real economic activity, and credit growth for 15 European countries and the United States. It is an integrated macroeconomic systemic risk model framework that draws on the advantages of forward-looking contingent claims analysis (CCA) risk indicators for the banking systems in each country, forward-looking CCA risk indicators for sover...

Credit Participation and Credit Source Selection of Vietnam Small and Medium Enterprises

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nguyen Anh Hoang

2014-10-01

Full Text Available This study is an attempt to investigate the motivation behind the decision to participate in the credit market of SMEs from perspectives of behavioral finance and social capital theories. In addi- tion, the study also examines the effect of behavioral finance and social capital factors on the credit source selection among SMEs. This study’s design strategy involves conducting questionnaire sur- veys to SMEs owners and statistical techniques to analyze the determinants of credit participation and credit source selection of borrowers. The findings showed that personal traits of SMEs owners/ managers in terms of behavioral finance factors such as debt and risk attitudes, present biased and overconfidence and firms networking also have impacts on the firms’ credit participation and credit source selection. The research is one of the few studies that consider the influence of behavioral finance factors on firms financing decision. Furthermore, our result also contributes to explain the common use of informal credit market in developing countries.

Determinants affecting consumer adoption of contactless credit card: an empirical study.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Yu-Min

2008-12-01

The contactless credit card is one of the most promising technological innovations in the field of electronic payments. It provides consumers with greater control of payments, convenience, and transaction speed. However, contactless credit cards have yet to gain significant rates of adoption in the marketplace. Thus, effort must be made to identify factors affecting consumer adoption of contactless credit cards. Based on the technology acceptance model, innovation diffusion theory, and the relevant literature, seven variables (perceived usefulness, perceived ease of use, compatibility, perceived risk, trust, consumer involvement, availability of infrastructure) are proposed to help predict consumer adoption of contactless credit cards. Data collected from 312 respondents in Taiwan is tested against the proposed prediction model using the logistic regression approach. The results and implications of our study contribute to an expanded understanding of the factors that affect consumer adoption of contactless credit cards.

Sustaining Satisfaction for Credit Risk Governance: Empirical Evidence from Indian Commercial Banks

Science.gov (United States)

Arora, Anju

2015-01-01

This paper explores the issues underlying the credit risk governance mechanism of banking institutions in emerging economies. This is an important area of study given the essential role that banks play in the financial markets of emerging economies and the widespread banking reforms that these economies have implemented. The aim of this study is…

Credit scoring analysis using weighted k nearest neighbor

Science.gov (United States)

Mukid, M. A.; Widiharih, T.; Rusgiyono, A.; Prahutama, A.

2018-05-01

Credit scoring is a quatitative method to evaluate the credit risk of loan applications. Both statistical methods and artificial intelligence are often used by credit analysts to help them decide whether the applicants are worthy of credit. These methods aim to predict future behavior in terms of credit risk based on past experience of customers with similar characteristics. This paper reviews the weighted k nearest neighbor (WKNN) method for credit assessment by considering the use of some kernels. We use credit data from a private bank in Indonesia. The result shows that the Gaussian kernel and rectangular kernel have a better performance based on the value of percentage corrected classified whose value is 82.4% respectively.

77 FR 17536 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; ICE Clear Credit LLC; Notice of Filing of Proposed Rule Change to...

Science.gov (United States)

2012-03-26

... Organizations; ICE Clear Credit LLC; Notice of Filing of Proposed Rule Change to Its Risk Model To Reduce the... Model so That It Is Easier for Market Participants To Measure Their Risk March 20, 2012. Pursuant to... is hereby given that on March 8, 2012, ICE Clear Credit LLC (``ICC'') filed with the Securities and...

Calculation of Credit Valuation Adjustment Based on Least Square Monte Carlo Methods

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Qian Liu

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Counterparty credit risk has become one of the highest-profile risks facing participants in the financial markets. Despite this, relatively little is known about how counterparty credit risk is actually priced mathematically. We examine this issue using interest rate swaps. This largely traded financial product allows us to well identify the risk profiles of both institutions and their counterparties. Concretely, Hull-White model for rate and mean-reverting model for default intensity have proven to be in correspondence with the reality and to be well suited for financial institutions. Besides, we find that least square Monte Carlo method is quite efficient in the calculation of credit valuation adjustment (CVA, for short as it avoids the redundant step to generate inner scenarios. As a result, it accelerates the convergence speed of the CVA estimators. In the second part, we propose a new method to calculate bilateral CVA to avoid double counting in the existing bibliographies, where several copula functions are adopted to describe the dependence of two first to default times.

For which option is credit risk more representative on China banks' total factor productivity Efficiency change or technological progress?

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Fadzlan Sufian

2012-01-01

Purpose-The purpose of this paper is to provide new empirical evidence on the impact of credit risk on China banks' total factor productivity.Design/methodology/approach-The paper employs the Malmquist Productivity Index (MP1) which allows for the examination of five different indices:total factor productivity change (TFPCH);technological change (TECHCH);efficiency change (EFFCH);pure technical efficiency change (PEFFCH);and scale efficiency change (SECH) indices.Findings-The empirical findings indicate that the State Owned Commercial Banks (SOCB),Joint Stock Commercial Banks (JSCB),and City Commercial Banks (CCB) have exhibited lower TFPCH levels with the inclusion of risk factor.It was found that the JSCB and CCB have exhibited lower TFPCH due to TECHCH,while the SOCB have exhibited lower TFPCH due to EFFCH.The empirical findings suggest that the inclusion of credit risk factor has resulted in a higher JSCB EFFCH levels.On the other hand,the SOCB and CCB have exhibited a lower EFFCH levels due to SECH and PEFFCH,respectively.Research limitations/implications-The results clearly highlight the importance of credit risk and lending quality in determining the total factor productivity change of banks operating in the China banking sector.The author demonstrates that the inclusion of credit risk factor has resulted in a lower TFPCH level of all banks operating in the China banking sector.Thus,excluding the credit risk factor from the analysis on the China banking sector may potentially bias the result upwards.Practical impIications-In an environment of heavy government influence over the lending process,a large proportion of loans extended by Chinese banks over the years have gone bad.Policymakers should prevent the flow of new non-performing loans by separating bad clients from banks that are being restructured and recapitalized in the reform of the banking sector.Originality/value-By employing the Malmquist Productivity Index (MPI),the present paper contributes to

Application of a rule extraction algorithm family based on the Re-RX algorithm to financial credit risk assessment from a Pareto optimal perspective

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yoichi Hayashi

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Historically, the assessment of credit risk has proved to be both highly important and extremely difficult. Currently, financial institutions rely on the use of computer-generated credit scores for risk assessment. However, automated risk evaluations are currently imperfect, and the loss of vast amounts of capital could be prevented by improving the performance of computerized credit assessments. A number of approaches have been developed for the computation of credit scores over the last several decades, but these methods have been considered too complex without good interpretability and have therefore not been widely adopted. Therefore, in this study, we provide the first comprehensive comparison of results regarding the assessment of credit risk obtained using 10 runs of 10-fold cross validation of the Re-RX algorithm family, including the Re-RX algorithm, the Re-RX algorithm with both discrete and continuous attributes (Continuous Re-RX, the Re-RX algorithm with J48graft, the Re-RX algorithm with a trained neural network (Sampling Re-RX, NeuroLinear, NeuroLinear+GRG, and three unique rule extraction techniques involving support vector machines and Minerva from four real-life, two-class mixed credit-risk datasets. We also discuss the roles of various newly-extended types of the Re-RX algorithm and high performance classifiers from a Pareto optimal perspective. Our findings suggest that Continuous Re-RX, Re-RX with J48graft, and Sampling Re-RX comprise a powerful management tool that allows the creation of advanced, accurate, concise and interpretable decision support systems for credit risk evaluation. In addition, from a Pareto optimal perspective, the Re-RX algorithm family has superior features in relation to the comprehensibility of extracted rules and the potential for credit scoring with Big Data.

The effect of the subprime crisis on the credit risk in global scale

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Sangwook; Kim, Min Jae; Lee, Sun Young; Kim, Soo Yong; Ban, Joon Hwa

2013-05-01

Credit default swap (CDS) has become one of the most actively traded credit derivatives, and its importance in finance markets has increased after the subprime crisis. In this study, we analyzed the correlation structure of credit risks embedded in CDS and the influence of the subprime crisis on this topological space. We found that the correlation was stronger in the cluster constructed according to the location of the CDS reference companies than in the one constructed according to their industries. The correlation both within a given cluster and between different clusters became significantly stronger after the subprime crisis. The causality test shows that the lead lag effect between the portfolios (into which reference companies are grouped by the continent where each of them is located) is reversed in direction because the portion of non-investable and investable reference companies in each portfolio has changed since then. The effect of a single impulse has increased and the response time relaxation has become prolonged after the crisis as well.

An Application of Robust Method in Multiple Linear Regression Model toward Credit Card Debt

Science.gov (United States)

Amira Azmi, Nur; Saifullah Rusiman, Mohd; Khalid, Kamil; Roslan, Rozaini; Sufahani, Suliadi; Mohamad, Mahathir; Salleh, Rohayu Mohd; Hamzah, Nur Shamsidah Amir

2018-04-01

Credit card is a convenient alternative replaced cash or cheque, and it is essential component for electronic and internet commerce. In this study, the researchers attempt to determine the relationship and significance variables between credit card debt and demographic variables such as age, household income, education level, years with current employer, years at current address, debt to income ratio and other debt. The provided data covers 850 customers information. There are three methods that applied to the credit card debt data which are multiple linear regression (MLR) models, MLR models with least quartile difference (LQD) method and MLR models with mean absolute deviation method. After comparing among three methods, it is found that MLR model with LQD method became the best model with the lowest value of mean square error (MSE). According to the final model, it shows that the years with current employer, years at current address, household income in thousands and debt to income ratio are positively associated with the amount of credit debt. Meanwhile variables for age, level of education and other debt are negatively associated with amount of credit debt. This study may serve as a reference for the bank company by using robust methods, so that they could better understand their options and choice that is best aligned with their goals for inference regarding to the credit card debt.

A hybrid model using decision tree and neural network for credit scoring problem

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Amir Arzy Soltan

2012-08-01

Full Text Available Nowadays credit scoring is an important issue for financial and monetary organizations that has substantial impact on reduction of customer attraction risks. Identification of high risk customer can reduce finished cost. An accurate classification of customer and low type 1 and type 2 errors have been investigated in many studies. The primary objective of this paper is to develop a new method, which chooses the best neural network architecture based on one column hidden layer MLP, multiple columns hidden layers MLP, RBFN and decision trees and ensembling them with voting methods. The proposed method of this paper is run on an Australian credit data and a private bank in Iran called Export Development Bank of Iran and the results are used for making solution in low customer attraction risks.

Markov Chain Model with Catastrophe to Determine Mean Time to Default of Credit Risky Assets

Science.gov (United States)

Dharmaraja, Selvamuthu; Pasricha, Puneet; Tardelli, Paola

2017-11-01

This article deals with the problem of probabilistic prediction of the time distance to default for a firm. To model the credit risk, the dynamics of an asset is described as a function of a homogeneous discrete time Markov chain subject to a catastrophe, the default. The behaviour of the Markov chain is investigated and the mean time to the default is expressed in a closed form. The methodology to estimate the parameters is given. Numerical results are provided to illustrate the applicability of the proposed model on real data and their analysis is discussed.

Boundedly rational credit cycles

OpenAIRE

Sáez, María

1996-01-01

We propose an evolutionary model of a credit market. We show that the economy exhibits credit cycles. The model predicts dynamics which are consistent with some evidence about the Great Depression. Real shocks trigger episodes of credit--crunch which are observed in the process of adjustment towards the post shock equilibrium.

Two-echelon competitive integrated supply chain model with price and credit period dependent demand

Science.gov (United States)

Pal, Brojeswar; Sankar Sana, Shib; Chaudhuri, Kripasindhu

2016-04-01

This study considers a two-echelon competitive supply chain consisting of two rivaling retailers and one common supplier with trade credit policy. The retailers hope that they can enhance their market demand by offering a credit period to the customers and the supplier also offers a credit period to the retailers. We assume that the market demand of the products of one retailer depends not only on their own market price and offering a credit period to the customers, but also on the market price and offering a credit period of the other retailer. The supplier supplies the product with a common wholesale price and offers the same credit period to the retailers. We study the model under a centralised (integrated) case and a decentralised (Vertical Nash) case and compare them numerically. Finally, we investigate the model by the collected numerical data.

17 CFR 240.15c3-1e - Deductions for market and credit risk for certain brokers or dealers (Appendix E to 17 CFR 240...

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... credit risk for certain brokers or dealers (Appendix E to 17 CFR 240.15c3-1). 240.15c3-1e Section 240....15c3-1(c)(2)(vi) and (c)(2)(vii) and to compute deductions for credit risk pursuant to this Appendix E... the broker or dealer will use to calculate deductions for market and credit risk on those categories...

Trust and Credit

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Harste, Gorm

The present paper is an answer to the question, how did trust and credit emerge. The systems of trust and credit reduce the environmental and contextual complexities in which trust and credit are embedded. The paper analyses the forms of this reduction in a number of stages in the evolution...... of history from the present risk of modern systems back to early modernity, the Reformation and the high medieval Revolutions in law, organization and theology. It is not a history of economics, but a history of the conditions of some communication codes used in economic systems....

77 FR 52977 - Regulatory Capital Rules: Advanced Approaches Risk-Based Capital Rule; Market Risk Capital Rule

Science.gov (United States)

2012-08-30

...-weighted assets for residential mortgages, securitization exposures, and counterparty credit risk. The.... Risk-Weighted Assets--Proposed Modifications to the Advanced Approaches Rules A. Counterparty Credit... Margin Period of Risk 3. Changes to the Internal Models Methodology (IMM) 4. Credit Valuation Adjustments...

Analysis of credit linked demand in an inventory model with varying ordering cost.

Science.gov (United States)

Banu, Ateka; Mondal, Shyamal Kumar

2016-01-01

In this paper, we have considered an economic order quantity model for deteriorating items with two-level trade credit policy in which a delay in payment is offered by a supplier to a retailer and also an another delay in payment is offered by the retailer to his/her all customers. Here, it is proposed that the demand function is dependent on the length of the customer's credit period and also the duration of offering the credit period. In this article, it is considered that the retailer's ordering cost per order depends on the number of replenishment cycles. The objective of this model is to establish a deterministic EOQ model of deteriorating items for the retailer to decide the position of customers credit period and the number of replenishment cycles in finite time horizon such that the retailer gets the maximum profit. Also, the model is explained with the help of some numerical examples.

A relative risk comparison of criticality control strategies based on fresh fuel and burnup credit design bases

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sanders, T.L.

1989-01-01

The fresh fuel design basis provides some margin of safety, i.e., criticality safety is almost independent of loading operations if fuel designs do not change significantly over the next 40 years. However, the design basis enrichment for future nuclear fuel will most likely vary with time. As a result, it cannot be guaranteed that the perceived passivity of the concept will be maintained over the life cycle of a future cask system. Several options are available to ensure that the reliability of a burnup credit system is comparable to or greater than that of a system based on a fresh fuel assumption. Criticality safety and control reliability could increase with burnup credit implementation. The safety of a burnup credit system could be comparable to that for a system based on the fresh fuel assumption. A burnup credit philosophy could be implemented without any cost-benefit tradeoff. A burnup credit design basis could result in a significant reduction in total system risk as well as economic benefits. These reductions occur primarily as a result of increased cask capacities and, thus, fewer shipments. Fewer shipments also result in fewer operations over the useful life of a cask, and opportunities for error decrease. The system concept can be designed such that only benefits occur. These benefits could include enhanced criticality safety and the overall reliability of cask operations, as well as system risk and economic benefits. Thus, burnup credit should be available as an alternative for the criticality design of spent fuel shipping casks

An empirical research on evaluating banks' credit assessment of corporate customers.

Science.gov (United States)

Tsai, Sang-Bing; Li, Guodong; Wu, Chia-Huei; Zheng, Yuxiang; Wang, Jiangtao

2016-01-01

Under the rapid change of the global financial environment, the risk control of the credit granting is viewed as the foremost task to each bank. With the impact one by one from financial crisis and European debt crisis, the steady bank business is also facing the severe challenge. Banks approve the credits for their customers and then make money from the interest. Credit granting is not only the primary job but also the main source of income. The quality of credit granting concerns not just the reclaims of creditor's rights; it also affects the successful running of banks. To enhance the reliability and usefulness of bank credit risk assessment, we first will delve in the facets and indexes in the bank credit risk assessment. Then, we will examine the different dimensions of cause-effect relationships and correlations in the assessment process. Finally, the study focuses on how to raise the functions and benefits of the bank credit risk assessment. In those five credit risk evaluation dimensions, A "optional capability" and D "competitiveness" are of high relation and high prominence among those dimensions, influencing other items obviously. By actively focusing on these two dimensions and improving their credit risk assessment ability will solve the foremost problems and also solve other facets of credit risk assessment problems at the same time.

Inventory and Credit Decisions under Day-Terms Credit Linked Demand and Allowance for Bad Debts

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

K. K. Aggarwal

2014-01-01

Full Text Available In order to stimulate demand of their product, firms generally give credit period to their customers. However, selling on credit exposes the firms to the additional dimension of bad debts expense (i.e., customer’s default. Moreover, credit period through its influence on demand becomes a determinant of inventory decisions and inventory sold on credit gets converted to accounts receivable indicating the interaction between the two. Since inventory and credit decisions are interrelated, inventory decisions must be determined jointly with credit decisions. Consequently, in this paper, a mathematical model is developed to determine inventory and credit decisions jointly. The demand rate is assumed to be a logistic function of credit period. The accounts receivable carrying cost along with an explicit consideration of bad debt expense which have been often ignored in previous models are incorporated in the present model. The discounted cash flow approach (DCF is used to develop the model and the objective is to maximize the present value of the firm’s net profit per unit time. Finally, numerical example and sensitivity analysis have been done to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed model.

Ordering policies of a deteriorating item in an EOQ model with backorder under two-level partial trade credit

Science.gov (United States)

Molamohamadi, Zohreh; Arshizadeh, Rahman; Ismail, Napsiah

2015-05-01

In the classical inventory model, it was assumed that the retailer must settle the accounts of the purchased items as soon as they are received. In practice, however, the supplier usually offers a full or partial delay period to the retailer to pay for the amount of the purchasing costs. In the partial trade credit contract, which is mostly applied to avoid non-payment risks, the retailer must pay for a portion of the purchased goods at the time of ordering and may delay settling the rest until the end of the predefined agreed upon period, so-called credit period. This paper assumes a two-level partial trade credit where both supplier and retailer offer a partial trade credit to their downstream members. The objective here is to determine the retailer's ordering policy of a deteriorating item by formulating his economic order quantity (EOQ) inventory system with backorder as a cost minimization problem. The sensitivity of the variables on different parameters has been also analyzed by applying numerical examples.

A dynamic model of unsecured credit

OpenAIRE

Daniel R. Sanches

2010-01-01

The author studies the terms of credit in a competitive market in which sellers (lenders) are willing to repeatedly finance the purchases of buyers (borrowers) by engaging in a credit relationship. The key frictions are: (i) the lender is unable to observe the borrower's ability to repay a loan; (ii) the borrower cannot commit to any long-term contract; (iii) it is costly for the lender to contact a borrower and to walk away from a contract; and (iv) transactions within each credit relationsh...

76 FR 10492 - Credit Reforms in Organized Wholesale Electric Markets

Science.gov (United States)

2011-02-25

..., Order No. 741, to amend its regulations to improve the management of risk and use of credit in the... discriminatory or preferential. The management of risk and credit requires a balance between protecting the... are less of a credit risk because their bond resolutions give explicit payment [[Page 10494

Stepwise Analysis of Differential Item Functioning Based on Multiple-Group Partial Credit Model.

Science.gov (United States)

Muraki, Eiji

1999-01-01

Extended an Item Response Theory (IRT) method for detection of differential item functioning to the partial credit model and applied the method to simulated data using a stepwise procedure. Then applied the stepwise DIF analysis based on the multiple-group partial credit model to writing trend data from the National Assessment of Educational…

11 CFR 100.55 - Extension of credit.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... substantially similar to extensions of credit to nonpolitical debtors that are of similar risk and size of... 11 Federal Elections 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Extension of credit. 100.55 Section 100.55... Contribution (2 U.S.C. 431(8)) § 100.55 Extension of credit. The extension of credit by any person is a...

Binomial model for measuring expected credit losses from trade receivables in non-financial sector entities

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Branka Remenarić

2018-01-01

Full Text Available In July 2014, the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB published International Financial Reporting Standard 9 Financial Instruments (IFRS 9. This standard introduces an expected credit loss (ECL impairment model that applies to financial instruments, including trade and lease receivables. IFRS 9 applies to annual periods beginning on or after 1 January 2018 in the European Union member states. While the main reason for amending the current model was to require major banks to recognize losses in advance of a credit event occurring, this new model also applies to all receivables, including trade receivables, lease receivables, related party loan receivables in non-financial sector entities. The new impairment model is intended to result in earlier recognition of credit losses. The previous model described in International Accounting Standard 39 Financial instruments (IAS 39 was based on incurred losses. One of the major questions now is what models to use to predict expected credit losses in non-financial sector entities. The purpose of this paper is to research the application of the current impairment model, the extent to which the current impairment model can be modified to satisfy new impairment model requirements and the applicability of the binomial model for measuring expected credit losses from accounts receivable.

12 CFR 702.306 - Revised business plans for new credit unions.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... exposure to risk (including credit risk, interest-rate risk, and other types of risk). (d) Consideration of... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Revised business plans for new credit unions. 702.306 Section 702.306 Banks and Banking NATIONAL CREDIT UNION ADMINISTRATION REGULATIONS AFFECTING...

76 FR 16235 - Corporate Credit Unions, Technical Corrections

Science.gov (United States)

2011-03-23

... inadvertently included particular investments that did not--when subject to the other credit risk and asset... NATIONAL CREDIT UNION ADMINISTRATION 12 CFR Part 707 RIN 3133-AD58 Corporate Credit Unions, Technical Corrections AGENCY: National Credit Union Administration (NCUA). ACTION: Final rule. SUMMARY: In...

The Interaction Between FX and Credit Risk as an Example of Intersection of Monetary and Financial Stability Policy Goals – The Case of Serbia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jović Željko

2016-05-01

Full Text Available The financial system of Serbia is highly bank-centric and euroised, which is a common specific feature of financial systems in developing countries. High level of euroisation represents an adequate environment for the development of emphasized interaction of foreign exchange and credit risks; therefore, creation of the spillover mechanism of foreign exchange risk to credit risk is immanent for euroised systems. Although maintaining the stability of the dinar exchange rate is a secondary goal of the National Bank of Serbia in relation to price and financial stability as the primary goals, in terms of existence of the aforesaid spillover mechanism, maintaining stability of the dinar exchange rate represents the area where there is an interaction between the goals of monetary policy (price stability and those of financial stability policy (maintaining and strengthening the financial system’s stability. In order to explore whether the spillover mechanism of foreign exchange risk to credit risk exists in Serbia’s financial system, the vector autoregressive (VAR model is applied on data from the Serbian banking sector to quantify the impact of changes in the dinar exchange rates on the rate of non-performing loans (NPLs; the sample was formed in the period of increased instability of the dinar exchange rate, from 31 January 2008 to 31 December 2010. As we have quantitatively confirmed the impact of increase in the dinar exchange rate on the increase of 90-120 days past due NPLs, we can conclude that the existence of expressed interaction between foreign exchange risk and credit risk in the Serbian financial system represents a paradigm of the regulator’s need to achieve contemporary goals of monetary and financial stability policy by maintaining relative stability of the dinar exchange rates. Depreciation of the local currency has inflationary pressure on price stability and simultaneously influences the achievement of financial stability goals

Hazardous Times for Monetary Policy : What do Twenty-three Million Bank Loans Say about the Effects of Monetary Policy on Credit Risk?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Jiminez, G.; Ongena, S.; Saurina, J.

2007-01-01

We investigate the impact of the stance and path of monetary policy on the level of credit risk of individual bank loans and on lending standards. We employ the Credit Register of the Bank of Spain that contains detailed monthly information on virtually all loans granted by all credit institutions

An application of locally linear model tree algorithm with combination of feature selection in credit scoring

Science.gov (United States)

Siami, Mohammad; Gholamian, Mohammad Reza; Basiri, Javad

2014-10-01

Nowadays, credit scoring is one of the most important topics in the banking sector. Credit scoring models have been widely used to facilitate the process of credit assessing. In this paper, an application of the locally linear model tree algorithm (LOLIMOT) was experimented to evaluate the superiority of its performance to predict the customer's credit status. The algorithm is improved with an aim of adjustment by credit scoring domain by means of data fusion and feature selection techniques. Two real world credit data sets - Australian and German - from UCI machine learning database were selected to demonstrate the performance of our new classifier. The analytical results indicate that the improved LOLIMOT significantly increase the prediction accuracy.

Estimation of Corporate Credit Rating Quality in Emerging Markets

African Journals Online (AJOL)

information that is not already readily available to investors. In order to ... is institutionalisation: that is, the increased use of credit ratings in financial ..... three financial ratios are included in the model to account for within-firm default risks.

Do At-Risk Students Benefit When NovaNET Is Used for Credit Recovery?

Science.gov (United States)

Volkerding, Rebecca Lynn

2012-01-01

The purpose of this study was to determine if it is effective and appropriate to place all students needing credit recovery in computer-based classes regardless of age, risk ratio, and their previous failing grade. Driven by the NCLB mandate for schools to produce greater gains and graduate all students in 4.5 years, districts are now using online…

An Introduction to the Partial Credit Model for Developing Nursing Assessments.

Science.gov (United States)

Fox, Christine

1999-01-01

Demonstrates how the partial credit model, a variation of the Rasch Measurement Model, can be used to develop performance-based assessments for nursing education. Applies the model using the Practical Knowledge Inventory for Nurses. (SK)

Tax credits and purchasing pools: will this marriage work?

Science.gov (United States)

Trude, S; Ginsburg, P B

2001-04-01

Bipartisan interest is growing in Congress for using federal tax credits to help low-income families buy health insurance. Regardless of the approach taken, tax credit policies must address risk selection issues to ensure coverage for the chronically ill. Proposals that link tax credits to purchasing pools would avoid risk selection by grouping risks similar to the way large employers do. Voluntary purchasing pools have had only limited success, however. This Issue Brief discusses linking tax credits to purchasing pools. It uses information from the Center for Studying Health System Change's (HSC) site visits to 12 communities as well as other research to assess the role of purchasing pools nationwide and the key issues and implications of linking tax credits and pools.

12 CFR 615.5212 - Credit conversion factors-off-balance sheet items.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

...). The resultant credit equivalent amount is assigned to the appropriate risk-weight category described... directly or indirectly retains or assumes credit risk. For risk participations in such arrangements... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Credit conversion factors-off-balance sheet...

Understanding Rasch Measurement: Partial Credit Model and Pivot Anchoring.

Science.gov (United States)

Bode, Rita K.

2001-01-01

Describes the Rasch measurement partial credit model, what it is, how it differs from other Rasch models, and when and how to use it. Also describes the calibration of instruments with increasingly complex items. Explains pivot anchoring and illustrates its use and describes the effect of pivot anchoring on step calibrations, item hierarchy, and…

76 FR 41602 - Fair Credit Reporting Risk-Based Pricing Regulations

Science.gov (United States)

2011-07-15

... on and disclose the key factors provided with the scores purchased from consumer reporting agencies... making the credit decision, the creditor must disclose that score and certain information relating to the... following disclosures: (1) the credit score \\4\\ used by the person in making the credit decision; (2) the...

Avaliação da aplicabilidade de um modelo de credit scoring com varíaveis sistêmicas e não-sistêmicas em carteiras de crédito bancário rotativo de pessoas físicas An evaluation on the applicability of a credit scoring model, with systemic and non-systemic variables in revolving bank credit portfolio for individuals

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

José Odálio dos Santos

2007-08-01

capability. Likewise, a more significant historical exposition of the banks to insolvency risk is being observed, such as the risk of not getting paid (partially or totally and the revolving credit borrowed by consumers. Considering the size and the importance of this market to the great commercial banks and to the economy as a whole, the scope of this research comprises the following points: 1. detailing the processes of subjective and objective credit analysis carried out by the main domestic private banks; 2. approaching the selective function of interest rates in revolving credits; 3. highlighting the main characteristics of credit scoring models; and 4. proposing a model of credit scoring for revolving credits. This model is based on systemic and non-systemic variables and directed to the reduction of insolvency risk. The applicability of the credit scoring model proposed in a sample, extracted from the consumers credit portfolio which belongs to an important medium size Brazilian private commercial bank (Bank X - fictitious name, presented a satisfactory accuracy level in the identification of prospective (96% and non-prospective (92% clients, which led to the conclusion that it included and considered adequately the representative variables of borrowers’ payment capability.

Optimal Designs for the Generalized Partial Credit Model

OpenAIRE

Bürkner, Paul-Christian; Schwabe, Rainer; Holling, Heinz

2018-01-01

Analyzing ordinal data becomes increasingly important in psychology, especially in the context of item response theory. The generalized partial credit model (GPCM) is probably the most widely used ordinal model and finds application in many large scale educational assessment studies such as PISA. In the present paper, optimal test designs are investigated for estimating persons' abilities with the GPCM for calibrated tests when item parameters are known from previous studies. We will derive t...

CAUTIOUS PRACTICE IN ACCOUNTANCY CREDIT UNITS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Riana Iren RADU

2006-01-01

Full Text Available The constitution of the specific risk prevision refers to their creation and is realized including in the cost the sum representing the level of the necessary specific risk provisions, in case there is no provision. The constitutions, regulation and the utilization of specific risk provisions will be realized using the credit currency and/or the investments they correct. Specific risk provisions are to be determined only for the client’s balance sheet engagements. The calculation for the necessary volume of provisions is realized for each and every credit contract referring to the final client classification category.

Credit Institutions Management Evaluation using Quantitative Methods

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nicolae Dardac

2006-02-01

Full Text Available Credit institutions supervising mission by state authorities is mostly assimilated with systemic risk prevention. In present, the mission is orientated on analyzing the risk profile of the credit institutions, the mechanism and existing systems as management tools providing to bank rules the proper instruments to avoid and control specific bank risks. Rating systems are sophisticated measurement instruments which are capable to assure the above objectives, such as success in banking risk management. The management quality is one of the most important elements from the set of variables used in the quoting process in credit operations. Evaluation of this quality is – generally speaking – fundamented on quantitative appreciations which can induce subjectivism and heterogeneity in quotation. The problem can be solved by using, complementary, quantitative technics such us DEA (Data Envelopment Analysis.

Efficient estimation of sensitivities for counterparty credit risk with the finite difference Monte Carlo method

NARCIS (Netherlands)

C.S.L. de Graaf (Kees); B.D. Kandhai; P.M.A. Sloot

2017-01-01

htmlabstractAccording to Basel III, financial institutions have to charge a credit valuation adjustment (CVA) to account for a possible counterparty default. Calculating this measure and its sensitivities is one of the biggest challenges in risk management. Here, we introduce an efficient method

Precautionary Borrowing and the Credit Card Debt Puzzle

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Druedahl, Jeppe; Jørgensen, Casper Nordal

2015-01-01

This paper addresses the credit card debt puzzle using a generalization of the buffer-stock consumption model with long-term revolving debt contracts. Closely resembling actual US credit card law, we assume that card issuers can always deny their cardholders access to new debt, but that they cannot...... to simultaneously hold positive gross debt and positive gross assets even though the interest rate on the debt is much higher than the return rate on the assets. Including a risk of being excluded from new borrowing which is positively correlated with unemployment, we are able to simultaneously explain...

Hazardous times for monetary policy : What do twenty-three million bank loans say about the effects of monetary policy on credit risk-taking?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Jiménez, G.; Ongena, S.; Peydro, J.L.; Saurina, J.

2014-01-01

We identify the effects of monetary policy on credit risk-taking with an exhaustive credit register of loan applications and contracts. We separate the changes in the composition of the supply of credit from the concurrent changes in the volume of supply and quality, and the volume of demand. We

Dynamic Diversification in Corporate Credit

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christoffersen, Peter; Jacobs, Kris; Jin, Xisong

We characterize diversification in corporate credit using a new class of dynamic copula models which can capture dynamic dependence and asymmetry in large samples of firms. We also document important differences between credit spread and equity return dependence dynamics. Modeling a decade...... the crisis and remain high as well. The most important shocks to credit dependence occur in August of 2007 and in August of 2011, but interestingly these dates are not associated with significant changes to median credit spreads....

11 CFR 116.3 - Extensions of credit by commercial vendors.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... of credit to nonpolitical debtors that are of similar risk and size of obligation. (b) Incorporated... similar to extensions of credit to nonpolitical debtors that are of similar risk and size of obligation... 11 Federal Elections 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Extensions of credit by commercial vendors. 116...

Efficient Estimation of Sensitivities for Counterparty Credit Risk with the Finite Difference Monte Carlo Method

NARCIS (Netherlands)

de Graaf, C.S.L.; Kandhai, D.; Sloot, P.M.A.

According to Basel III, financial institutions have to charge a credit valuation adjustment (CVA) to account for a possible counterparty default. Calculating this measure and its sensitivities is one of the biggest challenges in risk management. Here, we introduce an efficient method for the

Portfolio Optimization for Multiple Group Credit Unions

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Willis, John

1999-01-01

...) to diversify, credit unions now have the opportunity to market their services to specific employee groups or industries which can reduce the overall risk to the credit unions' health or solvency...

Impact of credit information on the banks stability: Global experience and lessons for Ukraine

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Inna Bielova

2016-05-01

Full Text Available A quality of the credit portfolio is one of the most important factors of banking system reliability. It is obviously, that there is a direct relationship between this indicator and financial stability of the bank. In turn, the quality of the loan portfolio depends on many factors that are investigated in scientific and educational literature. In this paper, we propose to focus on a group of factors of credit risk that are connected with the availability of information about the borrower. The low efficiency of the national system of collecting information about borrowers in Ukraine in comparison with foreign models was confirmed by the quantitative analysis. This tendency cases the high level of credit risks and low financial stability level of domestic banks. It is necessary to make active efforts on improving the effectiveness of credit bureaus in Ukraine by establishing public credit registry and also to focus on solving other problems associated with the collection and use of information about borrowers

THE STEERING TOOL OF FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS: CREDIT VAR (VALUE AT RISK

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

BĂRBULESCU MARINELA

2015-04-01

Full Text Available In order to determine the economic capital, in terms of internal management or of application of regulations, financial institutions need to model the probability of future losses on a loan portfolio. This is generally made applying the Credit VaR method. Thus, unexpected losses can be assessed.

Split credit ratings and the prediction of bank ratings in the Basel II environment

OpenAIRE

Barton, Amanda

2006-01-01

This thesis investigates two aspects of credit risk measurement in the context of Basel 11: The International Convergence of Capital Measurement and Capital Standards. The first is the problem arising when two credit rating agencies disagree over the rating assigned to an issuer and a split rating arises. The second area is the determination of internal credit rating models for use under the Internal ratings-based approach. This thesis presents a variety of bank rating modes for individual an...

Systemic risk contributions: a credit portfolio approach

OpenAIRE

Düllmann, Klaus; Puzanova, Natalia

2011-01-01

We put forward a Merton-type multi-factor portfolio model for assessing banks' contributions to systemic risk. This model accounts for the major drivers of banks' systemic relevance: size, default risk and correlation of banks' assets as a proxy for interconnectedness. We measure systemic risk in terms of the portfolio expected shortfall (ES). Banks' (marginal) risk contributions are calculated based on partial derivatives of the ES in order to ensure a full risk allocation among institutions...

Burnup credit feasibility for BWR spent fuel shipments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Broadhead, B.L.

1990-01-01

Considerable interest in the allowance of reactivity credit for the exposure history of power reactor fuel currently exists. This ''burnup credit'' issue has the potential to greatly reduce risk and cost when applied to the design and certification of spent of fuel casks used for transportation and storage. Analyses 1 have shown the feasibility estimated the risk and economic incentives for allowing burnup credit in pressurized water reactor (PWR) spent fuel shipping cask applications. This paper summarizes the extension of the previous PWR feasibility assessments to boiling water reactor (BWR) fuel. As with the PWR analysis, the purpose was not verification of burnup credit (see ref. 2 for ongoing work in this area) but a reasonable assessment of the feasibility and potential gains from its use in BWR applications. This feasibility analysis aims to apply simple methods that adequately characterize the time-dependent isotopic compositions of typical BWR fuel. An initial analysis objective was to identify a simple and reliable method for characterizing BWR spent fuel. The method includes characterization of a typical pin-cell spectrum, using a one-dimensional (1-D) model of a BWR assembly. The calculated spectrum allows burnup-dependent few-group material constants to be generated. Point depletion methods were then used to obtain the time-varying characteristics of the fuel. These simple methods were validated, where practical, with multidimensional methods. 6 refs., 1 tab

49 CFR 536.4 - Credits.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... OF TRANSPORTATION TRANSFER AND TRADING OF FUEL ECONOMY CREDITS § 536.4 Credits. (a) Type and vintage... category, and model year of origin (vintage). (b) Application of credits. All credits earned and applied are calculated, per 49 U.S.C. 32903(c), in tenths of a mile per gallon by which the average fuel...

The Multi-state Latent Factor Intensity Model for Credit Rating Transitions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Koopman, S.J.; Lucas, A.; Monteiro, A.

2008-01-01

A new empirical reduced-form model for credit rating transitions is introduced. It is a parametric intensity-based duration model with multiple states and driven by exogenous covariates and latent dynamic factors. The model has a generalized semi-Markov structure designed to accommodate many of the

The market for tradable renewable energy credits

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Berry, David

2002-01-01

As states seek to foster the development of renewable energy resources, some have introduced renewable portfolio standards (RPSs) which require retailers of electricity to derive a specified amount of their energy supply from renewable energy resources. RPSs in Texas, Arizona, Wisconsin and Nevada allow for or require the use of tradable renewable energy credits. The price of such credits is expected to reflect the cost premium for generating electricity from renewable resources relative to the market price of conventionally generated electricity. Using the market to trade renewable energy credits exposes buyers and sellers to risks of imperfect information, poor performance, and opportunism. These risks can be managed through contractual arrangements and regulatory requirements pertaining to property rights in credits, pricing, term of the contract, and assurance of performance

Bank Behavior with Access to Credit Risk Transfer Markets

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Goderis, B.V.G.; Marsh, I.; Vall Castello, J.; Wagner, W.B.

2006-01-01

One of the most important recent innovations in financial markets has been the development of credit derivative products that allow banks to more actively manage their credit portfolios than ever before.We analyze the effect that access to these markets has had on the lending behavior of a sample of

An Extension of the Partial Credit Model with an Application to the Measurement of Change.

Science.gov (United States)

Fischer, Gerhard H.; Ponocny, Ivo

1994-01-01

An extension to the partial credit model, the linear partial credit model, is considered under the assumption of a certain linear decomposition of the item x category parameters into basic parameters. A conditional maximum likelihood algorithm for estimating basic parameters is presented and illustrated with simulation and an empirical study. (SLD)

Trade credit: Elusive insurance of firm growth

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bams, Dennis; Bos, Jaap; Pisa, Magdalena

2016-01-01

Firms depend heavily on trade credit. This paper introduces a trade credit network into a structural model of the economy. In an empirical analysis of the model, we find that trade credit is an elusive insurance: as long as a firm is financially unconstrained and times are good, more trade credit

Statistical assessment of quality of credit activity of Ukrainian banks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Moldavska Olena V.

2013-03-01

Full Text Available The article conducts an economic and statistical analysis of the modern state of credit activity of Ukrainian banks and main tendencies of its development. It justifies urgency of the statistical study of credit activity of banks. It offers a complex system of assessment of bank lending at two levels: the level of the banking system and the level of an individual bank. The use of the system analysis allows reflection of interconnection between effectiveness of functioning of the banking system and quality of the credit portfolio. The article considers main aspects of management of quality of the credit portfolio – level of troubled debt and credit risk. The article touches the problem of adequate quantitative assessment of troubled loans in the credit portfolios of banks, since the methodologies of its calculation used by the National Bank of Ukraine and international rating agencies are quite different. The article presents a system of methods of management of credit risk, both theoretically and providing specific examples, in the context of prevention of occurrence of risk situations or elimination of their consequences.

Evaluation of creditability and risk minimisation : The effect of accounting for intangibles

OpenAIRE

Lukiyanov, Artem

2005-01-01

The recent history knows numerous examples of creditor’s inability to evaluate financial solvency of the client correctly. Creditors’ risks do not only concern individual relations between the two parties but the economy in general. The standard loan-giving procedure considers evaluation based on a number of financial ratios. Using the standard method a company that in reality is creditable may sometimes be counted as insolvent by the bank – due to the structure of the balance sheet, for inst...

Influence of credit scoring on the dynamics of Markov chain

Science.gov (United States)

Galina, Timofeeva

2015-11-01

Markov processes are widely used to model the dynamics of a credit portfolio and forecast the portfolio risk and profitability. In the Markov chain model the loan portfolio is divided into several groups with different quality, which determined by presence of indebtedness and its terms. It is proposed that dynamics of portfolio shares is described by a multistage controlled system. The article outlines mathematical formalization of controls which reflect the actions of the bank's management in order to improve the loan portfolio quality. The most important control is the organization of approval procedure of loan applications. The credit scoring is studied as a control affecting to the dynamic system. Different formalizations of "good" and "bad" consumers are proposed in connection with the Markov chain model.

Determinants of SME credit worthiness under Basel rules: the value of credit history information

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Francesco Dainelli

2013-03-01

Full Text Available The Basel III Accord has reportedly had an impact on SME financing. In this paper, we aim to highlight the determinants of SME credit worthiness. We use credit history in addition to financial ratios and “hybrid” indicators that have been built by mixing credit history with financial statement data. We develop a failure prediction logit model on 187 Italian SMEs. The use of short-term credit lines is the most important variable. Contrary to common understanding, capitalization levels do not affect ratings. Lastly, credit worthiness is sensitive to sale profitability.

An inventory model with a new credit drift: Flexible trade credit policy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ankit Prakash Tyagi

2016-01-01

Full Text Available In most of the published articles dealing with optimal order quantity model under permissible delay in payments, it is assumed that the supplier only put forwards fully permissible delay in payments if retailer ordered a bulky sufficient quantity otherwise permissible delay in payments would not be permitted. Practically, in competitive market environments and recession phases of business, every supplier wants to attract more retailers by the help of providing good facilities for trading. Necessity of order quantity may put a negative pressure on supplier’s demand. So, within the economic order quantity (EOQ framework the main purpose of this paper is to broaden this extreme case by introducing a new credit policy, Flexible Trade Credit Policy (FTCP, for supplier which can help him provide more free space of trading to retailers. This policy, after adopting by suppliers, not only provides attractive trading environments for retailers but also enhances the demand of supplier due to the large number of new retailers. Here in, under this policy, an inventory system is investigated as a cost minimization problem to establish the retailer’s optimal inventory cycle time and optimal order quantity. Three theorems are established to describe and to lighten optimal replenishment policies for the retailer. Finally, numerical examples are considered to illustrate all these theorems and managerial insights are given based on considered numerical examples.

A perceptual survey of the S and P Purchased Power Credit Risk Policy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rittenhouse, L.J.

1992-01-01

In November 1991, Standard and Poor's commissioned UtiliVentures Inc. to conduct a survey among experts in the purchased power industry in order to determine their views on its recently released Purchased power Credit Risk Policy and their general views on purchased power. Respondents for the survey were drawn from attendees to the S and P - sponsored seminars on Emerging Issues for Independent Power held in October 1991 in New York, Los Angeles and San Francisco. The seminars examined the rationale behind the new Purchased Power Credit Policy and how the policy is to be implemented. While the survey is not a scientifically drawn sample, it includes respondents from all key industry groups and is, the author believes, representative of the attendees. The survey findings make generalizations about industry practices which are based on the perceptions of these individuals. It thus identifies perceptual realities: what people believe about the issues underlying the buy vs. build debate, not what others in the industry are saying they should believe. This distinction is vital, because it is the beliefs of these individuals that will shape the evolving purchased power industry. The survey was designed to accomplish three principal goals: (1) To develop systematically a base of information about what people think of the risks and opportunities in the purchased power industry and to determine the extent to which the S and P purchased Power Credit Policy incorporates these views. (2) To identify whether and to what extent respondents value the S and P Policy and how they think it might affect the industry. (3) To use the survey findings to adjust and fine tune the S and P Policy and to develop new ways and improve existing ways to educate and inform the industry about what the Policy intends to accomplish

13 CFR 120.333 - Are there any special credit criteria?

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... addition to regular credit evaluation criteria, SBA shall weigh the greater risk associated with energy... 13 Business Credit and Assistance 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Are there any special credit criteria? 120.333 Section 120.333 Business Credit and Assistance SMALL BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION BUSINESS...

Detecting Math Anxiety with a Mixture Partial Credit Model

Science.gov (United States)

Ölmez, Ibrahim Burak; Cohen, Allan S.

2017-01-01

The purpose of this study was to investigate a new methodology for detection of differences in middle grades students' math anxiety. A mixture partial credit model analysis revealed two distinct latent classes based on homogeneities in response patterns within each latent class. Students in Class 1 had less anxiety about apprehension of math…

A Tentative Analysis of the Use of Potential by Commercial Bank in Controlling Credit Scale

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

YANG Wen-ze

2008-01-01

This article brings forward the conception of potential and filed potential in bank's competition under the inspiration of law of electric current in electrodynamics.It discusses the impact of potential shifting on commercial bank's credit scale and builds up a model for commercial bank to control the scale by credit pricing and risk policy in a dynamic way, and also gives some advice to domestic commercial bank for improving loan business, aiming to settle down the existing credit management problems.

Overcoming credit card fraud in South Africa

African Journals Online (AJOL)

A credit card is a convenient method of payment, but it does carry risks. The enormous ... Identity theft and the exponential ... Unique Security Features of a Credit Card with the Aim of Identifying ..... technology in an attempt to try and curb the.

Individual stock-option prices and credit spreads

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Cremers, M.; Driessen, J.; Maenhout, P.; Weinbaum, D.

2008-01-01

This paper introduces measures of volatility and jump risk that are based on individual stock options to explain credit spreads on corporate bonds. Implied volatilities of individual options are shown to contain useful information for credit spreads and improve on historical volatilities when

OPTIMAL STOCK MODELING FOR NON-FOODS RETAILER SELLING ON-CREDIT

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vladimir V. Manakhov

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The article is dedicated to the problem of retail stock optimization within mo-nopolistic competition market while selling non-food goods to customers on-credit. Optimization model has been developed and appropriate technique of stock volume planning has been introduced

Rational Multi-curve Models with Counterparty-risk Valuation Adjustments

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Crépey, Stéphane; Macrina, Andrea; Nguyen, Tuyet Mai

2016-01-01

We develop a multi-curve term structure set-up in which the modelling ingredients are expressed by rational functionals of Markov processes. We calibrate to London Interbank Offer Rate swaptions data and show that a rational two-factor log-normal multi-curve model is sufficient to match market da...... with regulatory obligations. In order to compute counterparty-risk valuation adjustments, such as credit valuation adjustment, we show how default intensity processes with rational form can be derived. We flesh out our study by applying the results to a basis swap contract....... with accuracy. We elucidate the relationship between the models developed and calibrated under a risk-neutral measure Q and their consistent equivalence class under the real-world probability measure P. The consistent P-pricing models are applied to compute the risk exposures which may be required to comply...

Loss given default models incorporating macroeconomic variables for credit cards

OpenAIRE

Crook, J.; Bellotti, T.

2012-01-01

Based on UK data for major retail credit cards, we build several models of Loss Given Default based on account level data, including Tobit, a decision tree model, a Beta and fractional logit transformation. We find that Ordinary Least Squares models with macroeconomic variables perform best for forecasting Loss Given Default at the account and portfolio levels on independent hold-out data sets. The inclusion of macroeconomic conditions in the model is important, since it provides a means to m...

Two echelon partial trade credit financing in a supply chain derived algebraically

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jaggi Chandra K.

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Trade credit financing has become a powerful tool to improve sales & profit in an industry. In general, a supplier/retailer frequently offers trade credit to its credit risk downstream member in order to stimulate their respective sales. This trade credit may either be full or partial depending upon the past profile of the downstream member. Partial trade credit may be offered by the supplier/retailer to their credit risk downstream member who must pay a portion of the purchase amount at the time of placing an order and then receives a permissible delay on the rest of the outstanding amount to avoid non-payment risks. The present study investigates the retailer’s inventory problem under partial trade credit financing for two echelon supply chain where the supplier, as well as the retailer, offers partial trade credit to the subsequent downstream member. An algebraic approach has been applied for finding the retailer’s optimal ordering policy under minimizing the annual total relevant cost. Results have been validated with the help of examples followed by comprehensive sensitivity analysis.

Trial of a "credit card" asthma self-management plan in a high-risk group of patients with asthma.

Science.gov (United States)

D'Souza, W; Burgess, C; Ayson, M; Crane, J; Pearce, N; Beasley, R

1996-05-01

The "credit card" asthma self-management plan provides the adult asthmatic patient with simple guidelines for the self-management of asthma, which are based on the self-assessment of peak expiratory flow rate recordings and symptoms. The study was a trial of the clinical efficacy of the credit card plan in a high-risk group of asthmatic patients. In this "before-and-after" trial, patients discharged from the emergency department of Wellington Hospital, after treatment for severe asthma were invited to attend a series of hospital outpatient clinics at which the credit card plan was introduced. Questionnaires were used to compare markers of asthma morbidity, requirement for emergency medical care, and medication use during the 6-month period before and after intervention with the credit card plan. Of the 30 patients with asthma who attended the first outpatient clinic, 26 (17 women and 9 men) completed the program. In these 26 participants, there was a reduction in both morbidity and requirement for acute medical services: specifically, the proportion waking with asthma more than once a week decreased from 65% to 23% (p = 0.005) and the proportion visiting the emergency department for treatment of severe asthma decreased from 58% to 15% (p = 0.004). The patients attending the clinics commented favorably on the plan, in particular on its usefulness as an educational tool for monitoring and treating their asthma. Although the interpretation of this study is limited by the lack of a randomized control group, the findings are consistent with other evidence that the credit card asthma self-management plan can be an effective and acceptable system for improving asthma care in a high-risk group of adult patients with asthma.

An Empirical Research on Bank Client Credit Assessments

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Quan Chen

2018-05-01

Full Text Available Individual microcredit loans involve large quantities and small amounts and necessitate rapid approval, therefore making simple and fast application approvals rather critical. Creditors must evaluate clients’ credit status and default risk within the shortest time when determining whether to approve or decline their applications, preventing overdue responses that negatively impact bank profits and management practices, and could trigger domestic financial crises. This study investigates client credit quality criteria, focusing on the expert opinions of bank managers. The decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory method is adopted to enable a comparison and analysis of the similarities and differences in how banks evaluate their clients’ character, ability, financial capability, and collateral. Based on causality and correlations among the criteria, we also identify the core problems and key improvement criteria in the evaluation system. Through survey results of professional managers from Taiwanese banks, this study uses the DEMATEL method to compare the differences in bank evaluation methods based on the four dimensions of clients’ character, ability, pockets, and collateral, as well as the corresponding 14 criteria. In order to improve the reliability and usefulness in bank client credit risk assessment, the assessment dimensions and indicators of bank client credit risk assessment are first discussed; second, the causal relationship and degree of mutual influence between different dimensions and criteria are researched and assessed; in the end, the paper discusses how to improve the function and the benefits of bank client credit risk assessment.

Asset backed securities : risks, ratings and quantitative modelling

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Jönsson, B.H.B.; Schoutens, W.

2009-01-01

Asset backed securities (ABSs) are structured finance products backed by pools of assets and are created through a securitisation process. The risks in asset backed securities, such as, credit risk, prepayment risk, market risks, operational risk, and legal risks, are directly connected with the

An application of data mining classification and bi-level programming for optimal credit allocation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Seyed Mahdi Sadatrasou

2015-01-01

Full Text Available This paper investigates credit allocation policy making and its effect on economic development using bi-level programming. There are two challenging problems in bi-level credit allocation; at the first level government/public related institutes must allocate the credit strategically concerning sustainable development to regions and industrial sectors. At the second level, there are agent banks, which should allocate the credit tactically to individual applicants based on their own profitability and risk using their credit scoring models. There is a conflict of interest between these two stakeholders but the cooperation is inevitable. In this paper, a new bi-level programming formulation of the leader-follower game in association with sustainable development theory in the first level and data mining classifier at the second level is used to mathematically model the problem. The model is applied to a national development fund (NDF as a government related organization and one of its agent banks. A new algorithm called Bi-level Genetic fuzzy apriori Algorithm (BGFAA is introduced to solve the bilateral model. Experimental results are presented and compared with a unilateral policy making scenario by the leader. Findings show that although the objective functions of the leader are worse in the bilateral scenario but agent banks collaboration is attracted and guaranteed.

Credit card spending limit and personal finance: system dynamics approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mirjana Pejić Bach

2014-03-01

Full Text Available Credit cards have become one of the major ways for conducting cashless transactions. However, they have a long term impact on the well being of their owner through the debt generated by credit card usage. Credit card issuers approve high credit limits to credit card owners, thereby influencing their credit burden. A system dynamics model has been used to model behavior of a credit card owner in different scenarios according to the size of a credit limit. Experiments with the model demonstrated that a higher credit limit approved on the credit card decreases the budget available for spending in the long run. This is a contribution toward the evaluation of action for credit limit control based on their consequences.

77 FR 22019 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; ICE Clear Credit LLC; Notice of Filing of Proposed Rule Change to...

Science.gov (United States)

2012-04-12

... recommendations to approve from the ICE Clear Credit Risk Committee on March 21, 2012, and the ICE Clear Credit Risk Management Subcommittee on March 7, 2012. However, the ICE Clear Credit Board, Risk Committee and...). The concerns raised by the ICE Clear Credit Board, Risk Committee, and Risk Management Subcommittee...