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Sample records for modeling counting statistics

  1. Radiation counting statistics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Suh, M. Y.; Jee, K. Y.; Park, K. K.; Park, Y. J.; Kim, W. H

    1999-08-01

    This report is intended to describe the statistical methods necessary to design and conduct radiation counting experiments and evaluate the data from the experiment. The methods are described for the evaluation of the stability of a counting system and the estimation of the precision of counting data by application of probability distribution models. The methods for the determination of the uncertainty of the results calculated from the number of counts, as well as various statistical methods for the reduction of counting error are also described. (Author). 11 refs., 8 tabs., 8 figs.

  2. Radiation counting statistics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Suh, M. Y.; Jee, K. Y.; Park, K. K. [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Taejon (Korea)

    1999-08-01

    This report is intended to describe the statistical methods necessary to design and conduct radiation counting experiments and evaluate the data from the experiments. The methods are described for the evaluation of the stability of a counting system and the estimation of the precision of counting data by application of probability distribution models. The methods for the determination of the uncertainty of the results calculated from the number of counts, as well as various statistical methods for the reduction of counting error are also described. 11 refs., 6 figs., 8 tabs. (Author)

  3. Radiation counting statistics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suh, M. Y.; Jee, K. Y.; Park, K. K.; Park, Y. J.; Kim, W. H.

    1999-08-01

    This report is intended to describe the statistical methods necessary to design and conduct radiation counting experiments and evaluate the data from the experiment. The methods are described for the evaluation of the stability of a counting system and the estimation of the precision of counting data by application of probability distribution models. The methods for the determination of the uncertainty of the results calculated from the number of counts, as well as various statistical methods for the reduction of counting error are also described. (Author). 11 refs., 8 tabs., 8 figs

  4. Experimental investigation of statistical models describing distribution of counts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salma, I.; Zemplen-Papp, E.

    1992-01-01

    The binomial, Poisson and modified Poisson models which are used for describing the statistical nature of the distribution of counts are compared theoretically, and conclusions for application are considered. The validity of the Poisson and the modified Poisson statistical distribution for observing k events in a short time interval is investigated experimentally for various measuring times. The experiments to measure the influence of the significant radioactive decay were performed with 89 Y m (T 1/2 =16.06 s), using a multichannel analyser (4096 channels) in the multiscaling mode. According to the results, Poisson statistics describe the counting experiment for short measuring times (up to T=0.5T 1/2 ) and its application is recommended. However, analysis of the data demonstrated, with confidence, that for long measurements (T≥T 1/2 ) Poisson distribution is not valid and the modified Poisson function is preferable. The practical implications in calculating uncertainties and in optimizing the measuring time are discussed. Differences between the standard deviations evaluated on the basis of the Poisson and binomial models are especially significant for experiments with long measuring time (T/T 1/2 ≥2) and/or large detection efficiency (ε>0.30). Optimization of the measuring time for paired observations yields the same solution for either the binomial or the Poisson distribution. (orig.)

  5. Non-Poisson counting statistics of a hybrid G-M counter dead time model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Sang Hoon; Jae, Moosung; Gardner, Robin P.

    2007-01-01

    The counting statistics of a G-M counter with a considerable dead time event rate deviates from Poisson statistics. Important characteristics such as observed counting rates as a function true counting rates, variances and interval distributions were analyzed for three dead time models, non-paralyzable, paralyzable and hybrid, with the help of GMSIM, a Monte Carlo dead time effect simulator. The simulation results showed good agreements with the models in observed counting rates and variances. It was found through GMSIM simulations that the interval distribution for the hybrid model showed three distinctive regions, a complete cutoff region for the duration of the total dead time, a degraded exponential and an enhanced exponential regions. By measuring the cutoff and the duration of degraded exponential from the pulse interval distribution, it is possible to evaluate the two dead times in the hybrid model

  6. Selecting the right statistical model for analysis of insect count data by using information theoretic measures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sileshi, G

    2006-10-01

    Researchers and regulatory agencies often make statistical inferences from insect count data using modelling approaches that assume homogeneous variance. Such models do not allow for formal appraisal of variability which in its different forms is the subject of interest in ecology. Therefore, the objectives of this paper were to (i) compare models suitable for handling variance heterogeneity and (ii) select optimal models to ensure valid statistical inferences from insect count data. The log-normal, standard Poisson, Poisson corrected for overdispersion, zero-inflated Poisson, the negative binomial distribution and zero-inflated negative binomial models were compared using six count datasets on foliage-dwelling insects and five families of soil-dwelling insects. Akaike's and Schwarz Bayesian information criteria were used for comparing the various models. Over 50% of the counts were zeros even in locally abundant species such as Ootheca bennigseni Weise, Mesoplatys ochroptera Stål and Diaecoderus spp. The Poisson model after correction for overdispersion and the standard negative binomial distribution model provided better description of the probability distribution of seven out of the 11 insects than the log-normal, standard Poisson, zero-inflated Poisson or zero-inflated negative binomial models. It is concluded that excess zeros and variance heterogeneity are common data phenomena in insect counts. If not properly modelled, these properties can invalidate the normal distribution assumptions resulting in biased estimation of ecological effects and jeopardizing the integrity of the scientific inferences. Therefore, it is recommended that statistical models appropriate for handling these data properties be selected using objective criteria to ensure efficient statistical inference.

  7. Counting statistics in radioactivity measurements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martin, J.

    1975-01-01

    The application of statistical methods to radioactivity measurement problems is analyzed in several chapters devoted successively to: the statistical nature of radioactivity counts; the application to radioactive counting of two theoretical probability distributions, Poisson's distribution law and the Laplace-Gauss law; true counting laws; corrections related to the nature of the apparatus; statistical techniques in gamma spectrometry [fr

  8. Unifying quantum heat transfer in a nonequilibrium spin-boson model with full counting statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Chen; Ren, Jie; Cao, Jianshu

    2017-02-01

    To study the full counting statistics of quantum heat transfer in a driven nonequilibrium spin-boson model, we develop a generalized nonequilibrium polaron-transformed Redfield equation with an auxiliary counting field. This enables us to study the impact of qubit-bath coupling ranging from weak to strong regimes. Without external modulations, we observe maximal values of both steady-state heat flux and noise power in moderate coupling regimes, below which we find that these two transport quantities are enhanced by the finite-qubit-energy bias. With external modulations, the geometric-phase-induced heat flux shows a monotonic decrease upon increasing the qubit-bath coupling at zero qubit energy bias (without bias). While under the finite-qubit-energy bias (with bias), the geometric-phase-induced heat flux exhibits an interesting reversal behavior in the strong coupling regime. Our results unify the seemingly contradictory results in weak and strong qubit-bath coupling regimes and provide detailed dissections for the quantum fluctuation of nonequilibrium heat transfer.

  9. Variability in faecal egg counts – a statistical model to achieve reliable determination of anthelmintic resistance in livestock

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Martin Krarup; Vidyashankar, Anand N.; Hanlon, Bret

    statistical model was therefore developed for analysis of FECRT data from multiple farms. Horse age, gender, zip code and pre-treatment egg count were incorporated into the model. Horses and farms were kept as random effects. Resistance classifications were based on model-based 95% lower confidence limit (LCL...

  10. Statistical Methods for Unusual Count Data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Guthrie, Katherine A.; Gammill, Hilary S.; Kamper-Jørgensen, Mads

    2016-01-01

    microchimerism data present challenges for statistical analysis, including a skewed distribution, excess zero values, and occasional large values. Methods for comparing microchimerism levels across groups while controlling for covariates are not well established. We compared statistical models for quantitative...... microchimerism values, applied to simulated data sets and 2 observed data sets, to make recommendations for analytic practice. Modeling the level of quantitative microchimerism as a rate via Poisson or negative binomial model with the rate of detection defined as a count of microchimerism genome equivalents per...

  11. Statistical tests to compare motif count exceptionalities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vandewalle Vincent

    2007-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Finding over- or under-represented motifs in biological sequences is now a common task in genomics. Thanks to p-value calculation for motif counts, exceptional motifs are identified and represent candidate functional motifs. The present work addresses the related question of comparing the exceptionality of one motif in two different sequences. Just comparing the motif count p-values in each sequence is indeed not sufficient to decide if this motif is significantly more exceptional in one sequence compared to the other one. A statistical test is required. Results We develop and analyze two statistical tests, an exact binomial one and an asymptotic likelihood ratio test, to decide whether the exceptionality of a given motif is equivalent or significantly different in two sequences of interest. For that purpose, motif occurrences are modeled by Poisson processes, with a special care for overlapping motifs. Both tests can take the sequence compositions into account. As an illustration, we compare the octamer exceptionalities in the Escherichia coli K-12 backbone versus variable strain-specific loops. Conclusion The exact binomial test is particularly adapted for small counts. For large counts, we advise to use the likelihood ratio test which is asymptotic but strongly correlated with the exact binomial test and very simple to use.

  12. Theory of photoelectron counting statistics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blake, J.

    1980-01-01

    The purpose of the present essay is to provide a detailed analysis of those theoretical aspects of photoelectron counting which are capable of experimental verification. Most of our interest is in the physical phenomena themselves, while part is in the mathematical techniques. Many of the mathematical methods used in the analysis of the photoelectron counting problem are generally unfamiliar to physicists interested in the subject. For this reason we have developed the essay in such a fashion that, although primary interest is focused on the physical phenomena, we have also taken pains to carry out enough of the analysis so that the reader can follow the main details. We have chosen to present a consistently quantum mechanical version of the subject, in that we follow the Glauber theory throughout. (orig./WL)

  13. Atom counting in HAADF STEM using a statistical model-based approach: methodology, possibilities, and inherent limitations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Backer, A; Martinez, G T; Rosenauer, A; Van Aert, S

    2013-11-01

    In the present paper, a statistical model-based method to count the number of atoms of monotype crystalline nanostructures from high resolution high-angle annular dark-field (HAADF) scanning transmission electron microscopy (STEM) images is discussed in detail together with a thorough study on the possibilities and inherent limitations. In order to count the number of atoms, it is assumed that the total scattered intensity scales with the number of atoms per atom column. These intensities are quantitatively determined using model-based statistical parameter estimation theory. The distribution describing the probability that intensity values are generated by atomic columns containing a specific number of atoms is inferred on the basis of the experimental scattered intensities. Finally, the number of atoms per atom column is quantified using this estimated probability distribution. The number of atom columns available in the observed STEM image, the number of components in the estimated probability distribution, the width of the components of the probability distribution, and the typical shape of a criterion to assess the number of components in the probability distribution directly affect the accuracy and precision with which the number of atoms in a particular atom column can be estimated. It is shown that single atom sensitivity is feasible taking the latter aspects into consideration. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. Statistical data filtration in neutron coincidence counting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beddingfield, D.H.; Menlove, H.O.

    1992-11-01

    We assessed the effectiveness of statistical data filtration to minimize the contribution of matrix materials in 200-ell drums to the nondestructive assay of plutonium. Those matrices were examined: polyethylene, concrete, aluminum, iron, cadmium, and lead. Statistical filtration of neutron coincidence data improved the low-end sensitivity of coincidence counters. Spurious data arising from electrical noise, matrix spallation, and geometric effects were smoothed in a predictable fashion by the statistical filter. The filter effectively lowers the minimum detectable mass limit that can be achieved for plutonium assay using passive neutron coincidence counting

  15. Counting statistics in low level radioactivity measurements fluctuating counting efficiency

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pazdur, M.F.

    1976-01-01

    A divergence between the probability distribution of the number of nuclear disintegrations and the number of observed counts, caused by counting efficiency fluctuation, is discussed. The negative binominal distribution is proposed to describe the probability distribution of the number of counts, instead of Poisson distribution, which is assumed to hold for the number of nuclear disintegrations only. From actual measurements the r.m.s. amplitude of counting efficiency fluctuation is estimated. Some consequences of counting efficiency fluctuation are investigated and the corresponding formulae are derived: (1) for detection limit as a function of the number of partial measurements and the relative amplitude of counting efficiency fluctuation, and (2) for optimum allocation of the number of partial measurements between sample and background. (author)

  16. Radon counting statistics - a Monte Carlo investigation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scott, A.G.

    1996-01-01

    Radioactive decay is a Poisson process, and so the Coefficient of Variation (COV) of open-quotes nclose quotes counts of a single nuclide is usually estimated as 1/√n. This is only true if the count duration is much shorter than the half-life of the nuclide. At longer count durations, the COV is smaller than the Poisson estimate. Most radon measurement methods count the alpha decays of 222 Rn, plus the progeny 218 Po and 214 Po, and estimate the 222 Rn activity from the sum of the counts. At long count durations, the chain decay of these nuclides means that every 222 Rn decay must be followed by two other alpha decays. The total number of decays is open-quotes 3Nclose quotes, where N is the number of radon decays, and the true COV of the radon concentration estimate is 1/√(N), √3 larger than the Poisson total count estimate of 1/√3N. Most count periods are comparable to the half lives of the progeny, so the relationship between COV and count time is complex. A Monte-Carlo estimate of the ratio of true COV to Poisson estimate was carried out for a range of count periods from 1 min to 16 h and three common radon measurement methods: liquid scintillation, scintillation cell, and electrostatic precipitation of progeny. The Poisson approximation underestimates COV by less than 20% for count durations of less than 60 min

  17. Generalized linear models and point count data: statistical considerations for the design and analysis of monitoring studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nathaniel E. Seavy; Suhel Quader; John D. Alexander; C. John Ralph

    2005-01-01

    The success of avian monitoring programs to effectively guide management decisions requires that studies be efficiently designed and data be properly analyzed. A complicating factor is that point count surveys often generate data with non-normal distributional properties. In this paper we review methods of dealing with deviations from normal assumptions, and we focus...

  18. Theory of overdispersion in counting statistics caused by fluctuating probabilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Semkow, Thomas M.

    1999-01-01

    It is shown that the random Lexis fluctuations of probabilities such as probability of decay or detection cause the counting statistics to be overdispersed with respect to the classical binomial, Poisson, or Gaussian distributions. The generating and the distribution functions for the overdispersed counting statistics are derived. Applications to radioactive decay with detection and more complex experiments are given, as well as distinguishing between the source and background, in the presence of overdispersion. Monte-Carlo verifications are provided

  19. Counting statistics of many-particle quantum walks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mayer, Klaus; Tichy, Malte C.; Mintert, Florian; Konrad, Thomas; Buchleitner, Andreas

    2011-06-01

    We study quantum walks of many noninteracting particles on a beam splitter array as a paradigmatic testing ground for the competition of single- and many-particle interference in a multimode system. We derive a general expression for multimode particle-number correlation functions, valid for bosons and fermions, and infer pronounced signatures of many-particle interferences in the counting statistics.

  20. Counting statistics of many-particle quantum walks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mayer, Klaus; Tichy, Malte C.; Buchleitner, Andreas; Mintert, Florian; Konrad, Thomas

    2011-01-01

    We study quantum walks of many noninteracting particles on a beam splitter array as a paradigmatic testing ground for the competition of single- and many-particle interference in a multimode system. We derive a general expression for multimode particle-number correlation functions, valid for bosons and fermions, and infer pronounced signatures of many-particle interferences in the counting statistics.

  1. Counting statistics and loss corrections for the APS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, W.K.; Mills, D.M.

    1992-01-01

    It has been suggested that for timing experiments, it might be advantageous to arrange the bunches in the storage ring in an asymmetrical mode. In this paper, we determine the counting losses from pulsed x-ray sources from basic probabilistic arguments and from Poisson statistics. In particular the impact on single-photon counting losses of a variety of possible filling modes for the Advanced Photon Source (APS) is examined. For bunches of equal current, a loss of 10% occurs whenever the count rate exceeds 21% of the bunch repetition rate. This changes slightly when bunches containing unequal numbers of particles are considered. The results are applied to several common detector/electronics systems

  2. Counting statistics and loss corrections for the APS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, W.K.; Mills, D.M.

    1992-01-01

    It has been suggested that for timing experiments, it might be advantageous to arrange the bunches in the storage ring in an asymmetrical mode. In this paper, we determine the counting losses from pulsed x-ray sources from basic probabilistic arguments and from Poisson statistics. In particular the impact on single photon counting losses of a variety of possible filling modes for the Advanced Photon Source (APS) is examined. For bunches of equal current, a loss of 10% occurs whenever the count rate exceeds 21% of the bunch repetition rate. This changes slightly when bunches containing unequal numbers of particles are considered. The results are applied to several common detector/electronics systems

  3. Reducing bias in the analysis of counting statistics data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hammersley, A.P.; Antoniadis, A.

    1997-01-01

    In the analysis of counting statistics data it is common practice to estimate the variance of the measured data points as the data points themselves. This practice introduces a bias into the results of further analysis which may be significant, and under certain circumstances lead to false conclusions. In the case of normal weighted least squares fitting this bias is quantified and methods to avoid it are proposed. (orig.)

  4. Full Counting Statistics for Interacting Fermions with Determinantal Quantum Monte Carlo Simulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Humeniuk, Stephan; Büchler, Hans Peter

    2017-12-08

    We present a method for computing the full probability distribution function of quadratic observables such as particle number or magnetization for the Fermi-Hubbard model within the framework of determinantal quantum Monte Carlo calculations. Especially in cold atom experiments with single-site resolution, such a full counting statistics can be obtained from repeated projective measurements. We demonstrate that the full counting statistics can provide important information on the size of preformed pairs. Furthermore, we compute the full counting statistics of the staggered magnetization in the repulsive Hubbard model at half filling and find excellent agreement with recent experimental results. We show that current experiments are capable of probing the difference between the Hubbard model and the limiting Heisenberg model.

  5. Hybrid statistics-simulations based method for atom-counting from ADF STEM images

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    De wael, Annelies, E-mail: annelies.dewael@uantwerpen.be [Electron Microscopy for Materials Science (EMAT), University of Antwerp, Groenenborgerlaan 171, 2020 Antwerp (Belgium); De Backer, Annick [Electron Microscopy for Materials Science (EMAT), University of Antwerp, Groenenborgerlaan 171, 2020 Antwerp (Belgium); Jones, Lewys; Nellist, Peter D. [Department of Materials, University of Oxford, Parks Road, OX1 3PH Oxford (United Kingdom); Van Aert, Sandra, E-mail: sandra.vanaert@uantwerpen.be [Electron Microscopy for Materials Science (EMAT), University of Antwerp, Groenenborgerlaan 171, 2020 Antwerp (Belgium)

    2017-06-15

    A hybrid statistics-simulations based method for atom-counting from annular dark field scanning transmission electron microscopy (ADF STEM) images of monotype crystalline nanostructures is presented. Different atom-counting methods already exist for model-like systems. However, the increasing relevance of radiation damage in the study of nanostructures demands a method that allows atom-counting from low dose images with a low signal-to-noise ratio. Therefore, the hybrid method directly includes prior knowledge from image simulations into the existing statistics-based method for atom-counting, and accounts in this manner for possible discrepancies between actual and simulated experimental conditions. It is shown by means of simulations and experiments that this hybrid method outperforms the statistics-based method, especially for low electron doses and small nanoparticles. The analysis of a simulated low dose image of a small nanoparticle suggests that this method allows for far more reliable quantitative analysis of beam-sensitive materials. - Highlights: • A hybrid method for atom-counting from ADF STEM images is introduced. • Image simulations are incorporated into a statistical framework in a reliable manner. • Limits of the existing methods for atom-counting are far exceeded. • Reliable counting results from an experimental low dose image are obtained. • Progress towards reliable quantitative analysis of beam-sensitive materials is made.

  6. Counting in Lattices: Combinatorial Problems from Statistical Mechanics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Randall, Dana Jill

    In this thesis we consider two classical combinatorial problems arising in statistical mechanics: counting matchings and self-avoiding walks in lattice graphs. The first problem arises in the study of the thermodynamical properties of monomers and dimers (diatomic molecules) in crystals. Fisher, Kasteleyn and Temperley discovered an elegant technique to exactly count the number of perfect matchings in two dimensional lattices, but it is not applicable for matchings of arbitrary size, or in higher dimensional lattices. We present the first efficient approximation algorithm for computing the number of matchings of any size in any periodic lattice in arbitrary dimension. The algorithm is based on Monte Carlo simulation of a suitable Markov chain and has rigorously derived performance guarantees that do not rely on any assumptions. In addition, we show that these results generalize to counting matchings in any graph which is the Cayley graph of a finite group. The second problem is counting self-avoiding walks in lattices. This problem arises in the study of the thermodynamics of long polymer chains in dilute solution. While there are a number of Monte Carlo algorithms used to count self -avoiding walks in practice, these are heuristic and their correctness relies on unproven conjectures. In contrast, we present an efficient algorithm which relies on a single, widely-believed conjecture that is simpler than preceding assumptions and, more importantly, is one which the algorithm itself can test. Thus our algorithm is reliable, in the sense that it either outputs answers that are guaranteed, with high probability, to be correct, or finds a counterexample to the conjecture. In either case we know we can trust our results and the algorithm is guaranteed to run in polynomial time. This is the first algorithm for counting self-avoiding walks in which the error bounds are rigorously controlled. This work was supported in part by an AT&T graduate fellowship, a University of

  7. Statistical method for resolving the photon-photoelectron-counting inversion problem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu Jinlong; Li Tiejun; Peng, Xiang; Guo Hong

    2011-01-01

    A statistical inversion method is proposed for the photon-photoelectron-counting statistics in quantum key distribution experiment. With the statistical viewpoint, this problem is equivalent to the parameter estimation for an infinite binomial mixture model. The coarse-graining idea and Bayesian methods are applied to deal with this ill-posed problem, which is a good simple example to show the successful application of the statistical methods to the inverse problem. Numerical results show the applicability of the proposed strategy. The coarse-graining idea for the infinite mixture models should be general to be used in the future.

  8. Gene coexpression measures in large heterogeneous samples using count statistics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Y X Rachel; Waterman, Michael S; Huang, Haiyan

    2014-11-18

    With the advent of high-throughput technologies making large-scale gene expression data readily available, developing appropriate computational tools to process these data and distill insights into systems biology has been an important part of the "big data" challenge. Gene coexpression is one of the earliest techniques developed that is still widely in use for functional annotation, pathway analysis, and, most importantly, the reconstruction of gene regulatory networks, based on gene expression data. However, most coexpression measures do not specifically account for local features in expression profiles. For example, it is very likely that the patterns of gene association may change or only exist in a subset of the samples, especially when the samples are pooled from a range of experiments. We propose two new gene coexpression statistics based on counting local patterns of gene expression ranks to take into account the potentially diverse nature of gene interactions. In particular, one of our statistics is designed for time-course data with local dependence structures, such as time series coupled over a subregion of the time domain. We provide asymptotic analysis of their distributions and power, and evaluate their performance against a wide range of existing coexpression measures on simulated and real data. Our new statistics are fast to compute, robust against outliers, and show comparable and often better general performance.

  9. Bayesian model selection techniques as decision support for shaping a statistical analysis plan of a clinical trial: An example from a vertigo phase III study with longitudinal count data as primary endpoint

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adrion Christine

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background A statistical analysis plan (SAP is a critical link between how a clinical trial is conducted and the clinical study report. To secure objective study results, regulatory bodies expect that the SAP will meet requirements in pre-specifying inferential analyses and other important statistical techniques. To write a good SAP for model-based sensitivity and ancillary analyses involves non-trivial decisions on and justification of many aspects of the chosen setting. In particular, trials with longitudinal count data as primary endpoints pose challenges for model choice and model validation. In the random effects setting, frequentist strategies for model assessment and model diagnosis are complex and not easily implemented and have several limitations. Therefore, it is of interest to explore Bayesian alternatives which provide the needed decision support to finalize a SAP. Methods We focus on generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs for the analysis of longitudinal count data. A series of distributions with over- and under-dispersion is considered. Additionally, the structure of the variance components is modified. We perform a simulation study to investigate the discriminatory power of Bayesian tools for model criticism in different scenarios derived from the model setting. We apply the findings to the data from an open clinical trial on vertigo attacks. These data are seen as pilot data for an ongoing phase III trial. To fit GLMMs we use a novel Bayesian computational approach based on integrated nested Laplace approximations (INLAs. The INLA methodology enables the direct computation of leave-one-out predictive distributions. These distributions are crucial for Bayesian model assessment. We evaluate competing GLMMs for longitudinal count data according to the deviance information criterion (DIC or probability integral transform (PIT, and by using proper scoring rules (e.g. the logarithmic score. Results The instruments under study

  10. Bayesian model selection techniques as decision support for shaping a statistical analysis plan of a clinical trial: an example from a vertigo phase III study with longitudinal count data as primary endpoint.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adrion, Christine; Mansmann, Ulrich

    2012-09-10

    A statistical analysis plan (SAP) is a critical link between how a clinical trial is conducted and the clinical study report. To secure objective study results, regulatory bodies expect that the SAP will meet requirements in pre-specifying inferential analyses and other important statistical techniques. To write a good SAP for model-based sensitivity and ancillary analyses involves non-trivial decisions on and justification of many aspects of the chosen setting. In particular, trials with longitudinal count data as primary endpoints pose challenges for model choice and model validation. In the random effects setting, frequentist strategies for model assessment and model diagnosis are complex and not easily implemented and have several limitations. Therefore, it is of interest to explore Bayesian alternatives which provide the needed decision support to finalize a SAP. We focus on generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) for the analysis of longitudinal count data. A series of distributions with over- and under-dispersion is considered. Additionally, the structure of the variance components is modified. We perform a simulation study to investigate the discriminatory power of Bayesian tools for model criticism in different scenarios derived from the model setting. We apply the findings to the data from an open clinical trial on vertigo attacks. These data are seen as pilot data for an ongoing phase III trial. To fit GLMMs we use a novel Bayesian computational approach based on integrated nested Laplace approximations (INLAs). The INLA methodology enables the direct computation of leave-one-out predictive distributions. These distributions are crucial for Bayesian model assessment. We evaluate competing GLMMs for longitudinal count data according to the deviance information criterion (DIC) or probability integral transform (PIT), and by using proper scoring rules (e.g. the logarithmic score). The instruments under study provide excellent tools for preparing decisions

  11. Local box-counting dimensions of discrete quantum eigenvalue spectra: Analytical connection to quantum spectral statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sakhr, Jamal; Nieminen, John M.

    2018-03-01

    Two decades ago, Wang and Ong, [Phys. Rev. A 55, 1522 (1997)], 10.1103/PhysRevA.55.1522 hypothesized that the local box-counting dimension of a discrete quantum spectrum should depend exclusively on the nearest-neighbor spacing distribution (NNSD) of the spectrum. In this Rapid Communication, we validate their hypothesis by deriving an explicit formula for the local box-counting dimension of a countably-infinite discrete quantum spectrum. This formula expresses the local box-counting dimension of a spectrum in terms of single and double integrals of the NNSD of the spectrum. As applications, we derive an analytical formula for Poisson spectra and closed-form approximations to the local box-counting dimension for spectra having Gaussian orthogonal ensemble (GOE), Gaussian unitary ensemble (GUE), and Gaussian symplectic ensemble (GSE) spacing statistics. In the Poisson and GOE cases, we compare our theoretical formulas with the published numerical data of Wang and Ong and observe excellent agreement between their data and our theory. We also study numerically the local box-counting dimensions of the Riemann zeta function zeros and the alternate levels of GOE spectra, which are often used as numerical models of spectra possessing GUE and GSE spacing statistics, respectively. In each case, the corresponding theoretical formula is found to accurately describe the numerically computed local box-counting dimension.

  12. Regression Models For Multivariate Count Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yiwen; Zhou, Hua; Zhou, Jin; Sun, Wei

    2017-01-01

    Data with multivariate count responses frequently occur in modern applications. The commonly used multinomial-logit model is limiting due to its restrictive mean-variance structure. For instance, analyzing count data from the recent RNA-seq technology by the multinomial-logit model leads to serious errors in hypothesis testing. The ubiquity of over-dispersion and complicated correlation structures among multivariate counts calls for more flexible regression models. In this article, we study some generalized linear models that incorporate various correlation structures among the counts. Current literature lacks a treatment of these models, partly due to the fact that they do not belong to the natural exponential family. We study the estimation, testing, and variable selection for these models in a unifying framework. The regression models are compared on both synthetic and real RNA-seq data.

  13. Modelling the Covariance Structure in Marginal Multivariate Count Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bonat, W. H.; Olivero, J.; Grande-Vega, M.

    2017-01-01

    The main goal of this article is to present a flexible statistical modelling framework to deal with multivariate count data along with longitudinal and repeated measures structures. The covariance structure for each response variable is defined in terms of a covariance link function combined...... be used to indicate whether there was statistical evidence of a decline in blue duikers and other species hunted during the study period. Determining whether observed drops in the number of animals hunted are indeed true is crucial to assess whether species depletion effects are taking place in exploited...... with a matrix linear predictor involving known matrices. In order to specify the joint covariance matrix for the multivariate response vector, the generalized Kronecker product is employed. We take into account the count nature of the data by means of the power dispersion function associated with the Poisson...

  14. Hybrid statistics-simulations based method for atom-counting from ADF STEM images.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Wael, Annelies; De Backer, Annick; Jones, Lewys; Nellist, Peter D; Van Aert, Sandra

    2017-06-01

    A hybrid statistics-simulations based method for atom-counting from annular dark field scanning transmission electron microscopy (ADF STEM) images of monotype crystalline nanostructures is presented. Different atom-counting methods already exist for model-like systems. However, the increasing relevance of radiation damage in the study of nanostructures demands a method that allows atom-counting from low dose images with a low signal-to-noise ratio. Therefore, the hybrid method directly includes prior knowledge from image simulations into the existing statistics-based method for atom-counting, and accounts in this manner for possible discrepancies between actual and simulated experimental conditions. It is shown by means of simulations and experiments that this hybrid method outperforms the statistics-based method, especially for low electron doses and small nanoparticles. The analysis of a simulated low dose image of a small nanoparticle suggests that this method allows for far more reliable quantitative analysis of beam-sensitive materials. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Sampling, Probability Models and Statistical Reasoning Statistical

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Resonance – Journal of Science Education; Volume 1; Issue 5. Sampling, Probability Models and Statistical Reasoning Statistical Inference. Mohan Delampady V R Padmawar. General Article Volume 1 Issue 5 May 1996 pp 49-58 ...

  16. Statistical analysis of nematode counts from interlaboratory proficiency tests

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Berg, van den W.; Hartsema, O.; Nijs, Den J.M.F.

    2014-01-01

    A series of proficiency tests on potato cyst nematode (PCN; n=29) and free-living stages of Meloidogyne and Pratylenchus (n=23) were investigated to determine the accuracy and precision of the nematode counts and to gain insights into possible trends and potential improvements. In each test, each

  17. Diffeomorphic Statistical Deformation Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Michael Sass; Hansen, Mads/Fogtman; Larsen, Rasmus

    2007-01-01

    In this paper we present a new method for constructing diffeomorphic statistical deformation models in arbitrary dimensional images with a nonlinear generative model and a linear parameter space. Our deformation model is a modified version of the diffeomorphic model introduced by Cootes et al....... The modifications ensure that no boundary restriction has to be enforced on the parameter space to prevent folds or tears in the deformation field. For straightforward statistical analysis, principal component analysis and sparse methods, we assume that the parameters for a class of deformations lie on a linear...... with ground truth in form of manual expert annotations, and compared to Cootes's model. We anticipate applications in unconstrained diffeomorphic synthesis of images, e.g. for tracking, segmentation, registration or classification purposes....

  18. Statistical analysis of the count and profitability of air conditioners.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rady, El Houssainy A; Mohamed, Salah M; Abd Elmegaly, Alaa A

    2018-08-01

    This article presents the statistical analysis of the number and profitability of air conditioners in an Egyptian company. Checking the same distribution for each categorical variable has been made using Kruskal-Wallis test.

  19. Statistical approaches to the analysis of point count data: A little extra information can go a long way

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farnsworth, G.L.; Nichols, J.D.; Sauer, J.R.; Fancy, S.G.; Pollock, K.H.; Shriner, S.A.; Simons, T.R.; Ralph, C. John; Rich, Terrell D.

    2005-01-01

    Point counts are a standard sampling procedure for many bird species, but lingering concerns still exist about the quality of information produced from the method. It is well known that variation in observer ability and environmental conditions can influence the detection probability of birds in point counts, but many biologists have been reluctant to abandon point counts in favor of more intensive approaches to counting. However, over the past few years a variety of statistical and methodological developments have begun to provide practical ways of overcoming some of the problems with point counts. We describe some of these approaches, and show how they can be integrated into standard point count protocols to greatly enhance the quality of the information. Several tools now exist for estimation of detection probability of birds during counts, including distance sampling, double observer methods, time-depletion (removal) methods, and hybrid methods that combine these approaches. Many counts are conducted in habitats that make auditory detection of birds much more likely than visual detection. As a framework for understanding detection probability during such counts, we propose separating two components of the probability a bird is detected during a count into (1) the probability a bird vocalizes during the count and (2) the probability this vocalization is detected by an observer. In addition, we propose that some measure of the area sampled during a count is necessary for valid inferences about bird populations. This can be done by employing fixed-radius counts or more sophisticated distance-sampling models. We recommend any studies employing point counts be designed to estimate detection probability and to include a measure of the area sampled.

  20. Full counting statistics of a charge pump in the Coulomb blockade regime

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andreev, A. V.; Mishchenko, E. G.

    2001-12-01

    We study full charge counting statistics (FCCS) of a charge pump based on a nearly open single electron transistor. The problem is mapped onto an exactly soluble problem of a nonequilibrium g=1/2 Luttinger liquid with an impurity. We obtain an analytic expression for the generating function of the transmitted charge for an arbitrary pumping strength. Although this model contains fractionally charged excitations only integer transmitted charges can be observed. In the weak pumping limit FCCS correspond to a Poissonian transmission of particles with charge e*=e/2 from which all events with odd numbers of transferred particles are excluded.

  1. The statistical interpretations of counting data from measurements of low-level radioactivity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Donn, J.J.; Wolke, R.L.

    1977-01-01

    The statistical model appropriate to measurements of low-level or background-dominant radioactivity is examined and the derived relationships are applied to two practical problems involving hypothesis testing: 'Does the sample exhibit a net activity above background' and 'Is the activity of the sample below some preselected limit'. In each of these cases, the appropriate decision rule is formulated, procedures are developed for estimating the preset count which is necessary to achieve a desired probability of detection, and a specific sequence of operations is provided for the worker in the field. (author)

  2. Optimization of counting time using count statistics on a diffraction beamline

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marais, D., E-mail: Deon.Marais@necsa.co.za [Research and Development Division, South African Nuclear Energy Corporation (Necsa) SOC Limited, PO Box 582, Pretoria 0001 (South Africa); School of Mechanical and Nuclear Engineering, North-West University, Potchefstroom 2520 (South Africa); Venter, A.M., E-mail: Andrew.Venter@necsa.co.za [Research and Development Division, South African Nuclear Energy Corporation (Necsa) SOC Limited, PO Box 582, Pretoria 0001 (South Africa); Faculty of Agriculture Science and Technology, North-West University, Mahikeng 2790 (South Africa); Markgraaff, J., E-mail: Johan.Markgraaff@nwu.ac.za [School of Mechanical and Nuclear Engineering, North-West University, Potchefstroom 2520 (South Africa)

    2016-05-11

    The feasibility of an alternative data acquisition strategy to improve the efficiency of beam time usage with neutron strain scanner instruments is demonstrated. By performing strain measurements against set statistical criteria, rather than time, not only leads to substantially reduced sample investigation time but also renders data of similar quality throughout.

  3. Gaussian point count statistics for families of curves over a fixed finite field

    OpenAIRE

    Kurlberg, Par; Wigman, Igor

    2010-01-01

    We produce a collection of families of curves, whose point count statistics over F_p becomes Gaussian for p fixed. In particular, the average number of F_p points on curves in these families tends to infinity.

  4. Full counting statistics of multiple Andreev reflections in incoherent diffusive superconducting junctions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samuelsson, P.

    2007-01-01

    We present a theory for the full distribution of current fluctuations in incoherent diffusive superconducting junctions, subjected to a voltage bias. This theory of full counting statistics of incoherent multiple Andreev reflections is valid for an arbitrary applied voltage. We present a detailed discussion of the properties of the first four cumulants as well as the low and high voltage regimes of the full counting statistics. (orig.)

  5. Spatial statistics of pitting corrosion patterning: Quadrat counts and the non-homogeneous Poisson process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lopez de la Cruz, J.; Gutierrez, M.A.

    2008-01-01

    This paper presents a stochastic analysis of spatial point patterns as effect of localized pitting corrosion. The Quadrat Counts method is studied with two empirical pit patterns. The results are dependent on the quadrat size and bias is introduced when empty quadrats are accounted for the analysis. The spatially inhomogeneous Poisson process is used to improve the performance of the Quadrat Counts method. The latter combines Quadrat Counts with distance-based statistics in the analysis of pit patterns. The Inter-Event and the Nearest-Neighbour statistics are here implemented in order to compare their results. Further, the treatment of patterns in irregular domains is discussed

  6. Radiation measurement practice for understanding statistical fluctuation of radiation count using natural radiation sources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kawano, Takao

    2014-01-01

    It is known that radiation is detected at random and the radiation counts fluctuate statistically. In the present study, a radiation measurement experiment was performed to understand the randomness and statistical fluctuation of radiation counts. In the measurement, three natural radiation sources were used. The sources were fabricated from potassium chloride chemicals, chemical fertilizers and kelps. These materials contain naturally occurring potassium-40 that is a radionuclide. From high schools, junior high schools and elementary schools, nine teachers participated to the radiation measurement experiment. Each participant measured the 1-min integration counts of radiation five times using GM survey meters, and 45 sets of data were obtained for the respective natural radiation sources. It was found that the frequency of occurrence of radiation counts was distributed according to a Gaussian distribution curve, although the obtained 45 data sets of radiation counts superficially looked to be fluctuating meaninglessly. (author)

  7. Statistical Methods for Unusual Count Data: Examples From Studies of Microchimerism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guthrie, Katherine A.; Gammill, Hilary S.; Kamper-Jørgensen, Mads; Tjønneland, Anne; Gadi, Vijayakrishna K.; Nelson, J. Lee; Leisenring, Wendy

    2016-01-01

    Natural acquisition of small amounts of foreign cells or DNA, referred to as microchimerism, occurs primarily through maternal-fetal exchange during pregnancy. Microchimerism can persist long-term and has been associated with both beneficial and adverse human health outcomes. Quantitative microchimerism data present challenges for statistical analysis, including a skewed distribution, excess zero values, and occasional large values. Methods for comparing microchimerism levels across groups while controlling for covariates are not well established. We compared statistical models for quantitative microchimerism values, applied to simulated data sets and 2 observed data sets, to make recommendations for analytic practice. Modeling the level of quantitative microchimerism as a rate via Poisson or negative binomial model with the rate of detection defined as a count of microchimerism genome equivalents per total cell equivalents tested utilizes all available data and facilitates a comparison of rates between groups. We found that both the marginalized zero-inflated Poisson model and the negative binomial model can provide unbiased and consistent estimates of the overall association of exposure or study group with microchimerism detection rates. The negative binomial model remains the more accessible of these 2 approaches; thus, we conclude that the negative binomial model may be most appropriate for analyzing quantitative microchimerism data. PMID:27769989

  8. The intensity detection of single-photon detectors based on photon counting probability density statistics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Zijing; Song Jie; Zhao Yuan; Wu Long

    2017-01-01

    Single-photon detectors possess the ultra-high sensitivity, but they cannot directly respond to signal intensity. Conventional methods adopt sampling gates with fixed width and count the triggered number of sampling gates, which is capable of obtaining photon counting probability to estimate the echo signal intensity. In this paper, we not only count the number of triggered sampling gates, but also record the triggered time position of photon counting pulses. The photon counting probability density distribution is obtained through the statistics of a series of the triggered time positions. Then Minimum Variance Unbiased Estimation (MVUE) method is used to estimate the echo signal intensity. Compared with conventional methods, this method can improve the estimation accuracy of echo signal intensity due to the acquisition of more detected information. Finally, a proof-of-principle laboratory system is established. The estimation accuracy of echo signal intensity is discussed and a high accuracy intensity image is acquired under low-light level environments. (paper)

  9. Metrology and statistical analysis for the precise standardisation of cobalt-60 by 4πβ-γ coincidence counting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buckman, S.M.

    1995-03-01

    The major part of the thesis is devoted to the theoretical development of a comprehensive PC-based statistical package for the analysis of data from coincidence-counting experiments. This analysis is applied to primary standardizations of Co performed in Australia and Japan. The Australian standardisation, the accuracy of which is confirmed through international comparison, is used to re-calibrate the ionisation chamber. Both Australian and Japanese coincidence-counting systems are interfaced to personal computers to enable replicated sets of measurements to be made under computer control. Further research to confirm the validity of the statistical model includes an experimental investigation into the non-Poisson behaviour of radiation detectors due to the effect of deadtime. Experimental investigation is conducted to determine which areas are most likely to limit the ultimate accuracy achievable with coincidence counting. The thesis concludes by discussing the possibilities of digital coincidence counting and outlines the design of a prototype system presently under development. The accuracy of the Australian standardisation is confirmed by international comparison. From this result a more accurate Co calibration is obtained for the Australian working standard. Based on the work of this thesis, uncertainties in coincidence counting experiments can be better handled with resulting improvements in measurement reliability. The concept and benefits of digital coincidence counting are discussed and a proposed design is given for such a system. All of the data and software associated with this thesis is provided on computer discs. 237 refs., figs., tabs

  10. A generalized model for coincidence counting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lu, Ming-Shih; Teichmann, T.

    1992-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to provide a description of the multiplicative processes associated with coincidence counting techniques, for example in the NDA of plutonium bearing materials. The model elucidates both the physical processes and the underlying mathematical formalism in a relatively simple but comprehensive way. In particular, it includes the effect of absorption by impurities or poisons, as well as that of neutron leakage on a parallel basis to the treatment of induced fission itself. The work thus parallels and generalizes the methods of Boehnel of Hage and Cifarelli, and more recently of Yanjushkin. This paper introduces the concept of a dual probability generating function to account for both the basic physical multiplication phenomena, as well as the detection phenomena. The underlying approach extends the idea of a simple probability generating function, due to De Moivre. The basic mathematical background may be found, for example, in Feller 1966

  11. Farey Statistics in Time n^{2/3} and Counting Primitive Lattice Points in Polygons

    OpenAIRE

    Patrascu, Mihai

    2007-01-01

    We present algorithms for computing ranks and order statistics in the Farey sequence, taking time O (n^{2/3}). This improves on the recent algorithms of Pawlewicz [European Symp. Alg. 2007], running in time O (n^{3/4}). We also initiate the study of a more general algorithmic problem: counting primitive lattice points in planar shapes.

  12. Application of statistical methods to the testing of nuclear counting assemblies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gilbert, J.P.; Friedling, G.

    1965-01-01

    This report describes the application of the hypothesis test theory to the control of the 'statistical purity' and of the stability of the counting batteries used for measurements on activation detectors in research reactors. The principles involved and the experimental results obtained at Cadarache on batteries operating with the reactors PEGGY and AZUR are given. (authors) [fr

  13. Exclusion statistics and integrable models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mashkevich, S.

    1998-01-01

    The definition of exclusion statistics, as given by Haldane, allows for a statistical interaction between distinguishable particles (multi-species statistics). The thermodynamic quantities for such statistics ca be evaluated exactly. The explicit expressions for the cluster coefficients are presented. Furthermore, single-species exclusion statistics is realized in one-dimensional integrable models. The interesting questions of generalizing this correspondence onto the higher-dimensional and the multi-species cases remain essentially open

  14. A Model for Positively Correlated Count Variables

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Jesper; Rubak, Ege Holger

    2010-01-01

    An α-permanental random field is briefly speaking a model for a collection of non-negative integer valued random variables with positive associations. Though such models possess many appealing probabilistic properties, many statisticians seem unaware of α-permanental random fields...... and their potential applications. The purpose of this paper is to summarize useful probabilistic results, study stochastic constructions and simulation techniques, and discuss some examples of α-permanental random fields. This should provide a useful basis for discussing the statistical aspects in future work....

  15. The estimation of differential counting measurements of possitive quantities with relatively large statistical errors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vincent, C.H.

    1982-01-01

    Bayes' principle is applied to the differential counting measurement of a positive quantity in which the statistical errors are not necessarily small in relation to the true value of the quantity. The methods of estimation derived are found to give consistent results and to avoid the anomalous negative estimates sometimes obtained by conventional methods. One of the methods given provides a simple means of deriving the required estimates from conventionally presented results and appears to have wide potential applications. Both methods provide the actual posterior probability distribution of the quantity to be measured. A particularly important potential application is the correction of counts on low radioacitvity samples for background. (orig.)

  16. Exclusion statistics and integrable models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mashkevich, S.

    1998-01-01

    The definition of exclusion statistics that was given by Haldane admits a 'statistical interaction' between distinguishable particles (multispecies statistics). For such statistics, thermodynamic quantities can be evaluated exactly; explicit expressions are presented here for cluster coefficients. Furthermore, single-species exclusion statistics is realized in one-dimensional integrable models of the Calogero-Sutherland type. The interesting questions of generalizing this correspondence to the higher-dimensional and the multispecies cases remain essentially open; however, our results provide some hints as to searches for the models in question

  17. Modeling patterns in count data using loglinear and related models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Atwood, C.L.

    1995-12-01

    This report explains the use of loglinear and logit models, for analyzing Poisson and binomial counts in the presence of explanatory variables. The explanatory variables may be unordered categorical variables or numerical variables, or both. The report shows how to construct models to fit data, and how to test whether a model is too simple or too complex. The appropriateness of the methods with small data sets is discussed. Several example analyses, using the SAS computer package, illustrate the methods

  18. Statistical Model of Extreme Shear

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Gunner Chr.; Hansen, Kurt Schaldemose

    2004-01-01

    In order to continue cost-optimisation of modern large wind turbines, it is important to continously increase the knowledge on wind field parameters relevant to design loads. This paper presents a general statistical model that offers site-specific prediction of the probability density function...... by a model that, on a statistically consistent basis, describe the most likely spatial shape of an extreme wind shear event. Predictions from the model have been compared with results from an extreme value data analysis, based on a large number of high-sampled full-scale time series measurements...... are consistent, given the inevitabel uncertainties associated with model as well as with the extreme value data analysis. Keywords: Statistical model, extreme wind conditions, statistical analysis, turbulence, wind loading, statistical analysis, turbulence, wind loading, wind shear, wind turbines....

  19. Full counting statistics of level renormalization in electron transport through double quantum dots

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Luo Junyan; Shen Yu; Cen Gang; He Xiaoling; Wang Changrong; Jiao Hujun

    2011-01-01

    We examine the full counting statistics of electron transport through double quantum dots coupled in series, with particular attention being paid to the unique features originating from level renormalization. It is clearly illustrated that the energy renormalization gives rise to a dynamic charge blockade mechanism, which eventually results in super-Poissonian noise. Coupling of the double dots to an external heat bath leads to dephasing and relaxation mechanisms, which are demonstrated to suppress the noise in a unique way.

  20. Full-counting statistics of energy transport of molecular junctions in the polaronic regime

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tang, Gaomin; Yu, Zhizhou; Wang, Jian

    2017-01-01

    We investigate the full-counting statistics (FCS) of energy transport carried by electrons in molecular junctions for the Anderson–Holstein model in the polaronic regime. Using the two-time quantum measurement scheme, the generating function (GF) for the energy transport is derived and expressed as a Fredholm determinant in terms of Keldysh nonequilibrium Green’s function in the time domain. Dressed tunneling approximation is used in decoupling the phonon cloud operator in the polaronic regime. This formalism enables us to analyze the time evolution of energy transport dynamics after a sudden switch-on of the coupling between the dot and the leads towards the stationary state. The steady state energy current cumulant GF in the long time limit is obtained in the energy domain as well. Universal relations for steady state energy current FCS are derived under a finite temperature gradient with zero bias and this enabled us to express the equilibrium energy current cumulant by a linear combination of lower order cumulants. The behaviors of energy current cumulants in steady state under temperature gradient and external bias are numerically studied and explained. The transient dynamics of energy current cumulants is numerically calculated and analyzed. Universal scaling of normalized transient energy cumulants is found under both temperature gradient and external bias. (paper)

  1. Statistical modeling for degradation data

    CERN Document Server

    Lio, Yuhlong; Ng, Hon; Tsai, Tzong-Ru

    2017-01-01

    This book focuses on the statistical aspects of the analysis of degradation data. In recent years, degradation data analysis has come to play an increasingly important role in different disciplines such as reliability, public health sciences, and finance. For example, information on products’ reliability can be obtained by analyzing degradation data. In addition, statistical modeling and inference techniques have been developed on the basis of different degradation measures. The book brings together experts engaged in statistical modeling and inference, presenting and discussing important recent advances in degradation data analysis and related applications. The topics covered are timely and have considerable potential to impact both statistics and reliability engineering.

  2. Statistical modelling with quantile functions

    CERN Document Server

    Gilchrist, Warren

    2000-01-01

    Galton used quantiles more than a hundred years ago in describing data. Tukey and Parzen used them in the 60s and 70s in describing populations. Since then, the authors of many papers, both theoretical and practical, have used various aspects of quantiles in their work. Until now, however, no one put all the ideas together to form what turns out to be a general approach to statistics.Statistical Modelling with Quantile Functions does just that. It systematically examines the entire process of statistical modelling, starting with using the quantile function to define continuous distributions. The author shows that by using this approach, it becomes possible to develop complex distributional models from simple components. A modelling kit can be developed that applies to the whole model - deterministic and stochastic components - and this kit operates by adding, multiplying, and transforming distributions rather than data.Statistical Modelling with Quantile Functions adds a new dimension to the practice of stati...

  3. A question of separation: disentangling tracer bias and gravitational non-linearity with counts-in-cells statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uhlemann, C.; Feix, M.; Codis, S.; Pichon, C.; Bernardeau, F.; L'Huillier, B.; Kim, J.; Hong, S. E.; Laigle, C.; Park, C.; Shin, J.; Pogosyan, D.

    2018-02-01

    Starting from a very accurate model for density-in-cells statistics of dark matter based on large deviation theory, a bias model for the tracer density in spheres is formulated. It adopts a mean bias relation based on a quadratic bias model to relate the log-densities of dark matter to those of mass-weighted dark haloes in real and redshift space. The validity of the parametrized bias model is established using a parametrization-independent extraction of the bias function. This average bias model is then combined with the dark matter PDF, neglecting any scatter around it: it nevertheless yields an excellent model for densities-in-cells statistics of mass tracers that is parametrized in terms of the underlying dark matter variance and three bias parameters. The procedure is validated on measurements of both the one- and two-point statistics of subhalo densities in the state-of-the-art Horizon Run 4 simulation showing excellent agreement for measured dark matter variance and bias parameters. Finally, it is demonstrated that this formalism allows for a joint estimation of the non-linear dark matter variance and the bias parameters using solely the statistics of subhaloes. Having verified that galaxy counts in hydrodynamical simulations sampled on a scale of 10 Mpc h-1 closely resemble those of subhaloes, this work provides important steps towards making theoretical predictions for density-in-cells statistics applicable to upcoming galaxy surveys like Euclid or WFIRST.

  4. A Statistical Programme Assignment Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rosholm, Michael; Staghøj, Jonas; Svarer, Michael

    When treatment effects of active labour market programmes are heterogeneous in an observable way  across the population, the allocation of the unemployed into different programmes becomes a particularly  important issue. In this paper, we present a statistical model designed to improve the present...... duration of unemployment spells may result if a statistical programme assignment model is introduced. We discuss several issues regarding the  plementation of such a system, especially the interplay between the statistical model and  case workers....

  5. Exact Local Correlations and Full Counting Statistics for Arbitrary States of the One-Dimensional Interacting Bose Gas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bastianello, Alvise; Piroli, Lorenzo; Calabrese, Pasquale

    2018-05-01

    We derive exact analytic expressions for the n -body local correlations in the one-dimensional Bose gas with contact repulsive interactions (Lieb-Liniger model) in the thermodynamic limit. Our results are valid for arbitrary states of the model, including ground and thermal states, stationary states after a quantum quench, and nonequilibrium steady states arising in transport settings. Calculations for these states are explicitly presented and physical consequences are critically discussed. We also show that the n -body local correlations are directly related to the full counting statistics for the particle-number fluctuations in a short interval, for which we provide an explicit analytic result.

  6. PREFACE: Counting Complexity: An international workshop on statistical mechanics and combinatorics

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Gier, Jan; Warnaar, Ole

    2006-07-01

    On 10-15 July 2005 the conference `Counting Complexity: An international workshop on statistical mechanics and combinatorics' was held on Dunk Island, Queensland, Australia in celebration of Tony Guttmann's 60th birthday. Dunk Island provided the perfect setting for engaging in almost all of Tony's life-long passions: swimming, running, food, wine and, of course, plenty of mathematics and physics. The conference was attended by many of Tony's close scientific friends from all over the world, and most talks were presented by his past and present collaborators. This volume contains the proceedings of the meeting and consists of 24 refereed research papers in the fields of statistical mechanics, condensed matter physics and combinatorics. These papers provide an excellent illustration of the breadth and scope of Tony's work. The very first contribution, written by Stu Whittington, contains an overview of the many scientific achievements of Tony over the past 40 years in mathematics and physics. The organizing committee, consisting of Richard Brak, Aleks Owczarek, Jan de Gier, Emma Lockwood, Andrew Rechnitzer and Ole Warnaar, gratefully acknowledges the Australian Mathematical Society (AustMS), the Australian Mathematical Sciences Institute (AMSI), the ARC Centre of Excellence for Mathematics and Statistics of Complex Systems (MASCOS), the ARC Complex Open Systems Research Network (COSNet), the Institute of Physics (IOP) and the Department of Mathematics and Statistics of The University of Melbourne for financial support in organizing the conference. Tony, we hope that your future years in mathematics will be numerous. Count yourself lucky! Tony Guttman

  7. Tutorial on Using Regression Models with Count Outcomes Using R

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Alexander Beaujean

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Education researchers often study count variables, such as times a student reached a goal, discipline referrals, and absences. Most researchers that study these variables use typical regression methods (i.e., ordinary least-squares either with or without transforming the count variables. In either case, using typical regression for count data can produce parameter estimates that are biased, thus diminishing any inferences made from such data. As count-variable regression models are seldom taught in training programs, we present a tutorial to help educational researchers use such methods in their own research. We demonstrate analyzing and interpreting count data using Poisson, negative binomial, zero-inflated Poisson, and zero-inflated negative binomial regression models. The count regression methods are introduced through an example using the number of times students skipped class. The data for this example are freely available and the R syntax used run the example analyses are included in the Appendix.

  8. A hierarchical spatiotemporal analog forecasting model for count data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDermott, Patrick L; Wikle, Christopher K; Millspaugh, Joshua

    2018-01-01

    Analog forecasting is a mechanism-free nonlinear method that forecasts a system forward in time by examining how past states deemed similar to the current state moved forward. Previous applications of analog forecasting has been successful at producing robust forecasts for a variety of ecological and physical processes, but it has typically been presented in an empirical or heuristic procedure, rather than as a formal statistical model. The methodology presented here extends the model-based analog method of McDermott and Wikle (Environmetrics, 27, 2016, 70) by placing analog forecasting within a fully hierarchical statistical framework that can accommodate count observations. Using a Bayesian approach, the hierarchical analog model is able to quantify rigorously the uncertainty associated with forecasts. Forecasting waterfowl settling patterns in the northwestern United States and Canada is conducted by applying the hierarchical analog model to a breeding population survey dataset. Sea surface temperature (SST) in the Pacific Ocean is used to help identify potential analogs for the waterfowl settling patterns.

  9. On-line statistical processing of radiation detector pulse trains with time-varying count rates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Apostolopoulos, G.

    2008-01-01

    Statistical analysis is of primary importance for the correct interpretation of nuclear measurements, due to the inherent random nature of radioactive decay processes. This paper discusses the application of statistical signal processing techniques to the random pulse trains generated by radiation detectors. The aims of the presented algorithms are: (i) continuous, on-line estimation of the underlying time-varying count rate θ(t) and its first-order derivative dθ/dt; (ii) detection of abrupt changes in both of these quantities and estimation of their new value after the change point. Maximum-likelihood techniques, based on the Poisson probability distribution, are employed for the on-line estimation of θ and dθ/dt. Detection of abrupt changes is achieved on the basis of the generalized likelihood ratio statistical test. The properties of the proposed algorithms are evaluated by extensive simulations and possible applications for on-line radiation monitoring are discussed

  10. Statistical modelling of citation exchange between statistics journals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varin, Cristiano; Cattelan, Manuela; Firth, David

    2016-01-01

    Rankings of scholarly journals based on citation data are often met with scepticism by the scientific community. Part of the scepticism is due to disparity between the common perception of journals' prestige and their ranking based on citation counts. A more serious concern is the inappropriate use of journal rankings to evaluate the scientific influence of researchers. The paper focuses on analysis of the table of cross-citations among a selection of statistics journals. Data are collected from the Web of Science database published by Thomson Reuters. Our results suggest that modelling the exchange of citations between journals is useful to highlight the most prestigious journals, but also that journal citation data are characterized by considerable heterogeneity, which needs to be properly summarized. Inferential conclusions require care to avoid potential overinterpretation of insignificant differences between journal ratings. Comparison with published ratings of institutions from the UK's research assessment exercise shows strong correlation at aggregate level between assessed research quality and journal citation 'export scores' within the discipline of statistics.

  11. Statistical properties of several models of fractional random point processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bendjaballah, C.

    2011-08-01

    Statistical properties of several models of fractional random point processes have been analyzed from the counting and time interval statistics points of view. Based on the criterion of the reduced variance, it is seen that such processes exhibit nonclassical properties. The conditions for these processes to be treated as conditional Poisson processes are examined. Numerical simulations illustrate part of the theoretical calculations.

  12. Modeling Zero-Inflated and Overdispersed Count Data: An Empirical Study of School Suspensions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Desjardins, Christopher David

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to develop a statistical model that best explains variability in the number of school days suspended. Number of school days suspended is a count variable that may be zero-inflated and overdispersed relative to a Poisson model. Four models were examined: Poisson, negative binomial, Poisson hurdle, and negative…

  13. Comparison of probabilistic models of the distribution of counts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salma, I.; Zemplen-Papp, E.

    1992-01-01

    The binominal, Poisson and modified Poisson models for describing the statistical nature of the distribution of counts are compared theoretically, and conclusions for application are proposed. The validity of the Poisson and the modified Poisson distribution for observing k events in a short time interval is investigated experimentally for various measuring times. The experiments to measure the influence of the significant radioactive decay were performed with 89m Y (T 1/2 =16.06 s), using a multichannel analyser (4096 channels) in the multiscaling mode. According to the results, Poisson distribution describes the counting experiment for short measuring times (up to T=0.5 T 1/2 ) and its application is recommended. However, the analysis of the data demonstrated that for long measurements (T≥1 T 1/2 ) Poisson distribution is not valid and the modified Poisson distribution is preferable. The practical implications in calculating uncertainties and in optimizing the measuring time are discussed. (author) 20 refs.; 7 figs.; 1 tab

  14. Tropical geometry of statistical models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pachter, Lior; Sturmfels, Bernd

    2004-11-16

    This article presents a unified mathematical framework for inference in graphical models, building on the observation that graphical models are algebraic varieties. From this geometric viewpoint, observations generated from a model are coordinates of a point in the variety, and the sum-product algorithm is an efficient tool for evaluating specific coordinates. Here, we address the question of how the solutions to various inference problems depend on the model parameters. The proposed answer is expressed in terms of tropical algebraic geometry. The Newton polytope of a statistical model plays a key role. Our results are applied to the hidden Markov model and the general Markov model on a binary tree.

  15. Statistical Model of Extreme Shear

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Kurt Schaldemose; Larsen, Gunner Chr.

    2005-01-01

    In order to continue cost-optimisation of modern large wind turbines, it is important to continuously increase the knowledge of wind field parameters relevant to design loads. This paper presents a general statistical model that offers site-specific prediction of the probability density function...... by a model that, on a statistically consistent basis, describes the most likely spatial shape of an extreme wind shear event. Predictions from the model have been compared with results from an extreme value data analysis, based on a large number of full-scale measurements recorded with a high sampling rate...

  16. Statistical Models for Social Networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Snijders, Tom A. B.; Cook, KS; Massey, DS

    2011-01-01

    Statistical models for social networks as dependent variables must represent the typical network dependencies between tie variables such as reciprocity, homophily, transitivity, etc. This review first treats models for single (cross-sectionally observed) networks and then for network dynamics. For

  17. Analysis of dental caries using generalized linear and count regression models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Javali M. Phil

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Generalized linear models (GLM are generalization of linear regression models, which allow fitting regression models to response data in all the sciences especially medical and dental sciences that follow a general exponential family. These are flexible and widely used class of such models that can accommodate response variables. Count data are frequently characterized by overdispersion and excess zeros. Zero-inflated count models provide a parsimonious yet powerful way to model this type of situation. Such models assume that the data are a mixture of two separate data generation processes: one generates only zeros, and the other is either a Poisson or a negative binomial data-generating process. Zero inflated count regression models such as the zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP, zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB regression models have been used to handle dental caries count data with many zeros. We present an evaluation framework to the suitability of applying the GLM, Poisson, NB, ZIP and ZINB to dental caries data set where the count data may exhibit evidence of many zeros and over-dispersion. Estimation of the model parameters using the method of maximum likelihood is provided. Based on the Vuong test statistic and the goodness of fit measure for dental caries data, the NB and ZINB regression models perform better than other count regression models.

  18. Sensometrics: Thurstonian and Statistical Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Rune Haubo Bojesen

    . sensR is a package for sensory discrimination testing with Thurstonian models and ordinal supports analysis of ordinal data with cumulative link (mixed) models. While sensR is closely connected to the sensometrics field, the ordinal package has developed into a generic statistical package applicable......This thesis is concerned with the development and bridging of Thurstonian and statistical models for sensory discrimination testing as applied in the scientific discipline of sensometrics. In sensory discrimination testing sensory differences between products are detected and quantified by the use...... and sensory discrimination testing in particular in a series of papers by advancing Thurstonian models for a range of sensory discrimination protocols in addition to facilitating their application by providing software for fitting these models. The main focus is on identifying Thurstonian models...

  19. Optimization of statistical methods for HpGe gamma-ray spectrometer used in wide count rate ranges

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gervino, G., E-mail: gervino@to.infn.it [UNITO - Università di Torino, Dipartimento di Fisica, Turin (Italy); INFN - Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare, Sez. Torino, Turin (Italy); Mana, G. [INRIM - Istituto Nazionale di Ricerca Metrologica, Turin (Italy); Palmisano, C. [UNITO - Università di Torino, Dipartimento di Fisica, Turin (Italy); INRIM - Istituto Nazionale di Ricerca Metrologica, Turin (Italy)

    2016-07-11

    The need to perform γ-ray measurements with HpGe detectors is a common technique in many fields such as nuclear physics, radiochemistry, nuclear medicine and neutron activation analysis. The use of HpGe detectors is chosen in situations where isotope identification is needed because of their excellent resolution. Our challenge is to obtain the “best” spectroscopy data possible in every measurement situation. “Best” is a combination of statistical (number of counts) and spectral quality (peak, width and position) over a wide range of counting rates. In this framework, we applied Bayesian methods and the Ellipsoidal Nested Sampling (a multidimensional integration technique) to study the most likely distribution for the shape of HpGe spectra. In treating these experiments, the prior information suggests to model the likelihood function with a product of Poisson distributions. We present the efforts that have been done in order to optimize the statistical methods to HpGe detector outputs with the aim to evaluate to a better order of precision the detector efficiency, the absolute measured activity and the spectra background. Reaching a more precise knowledge of statistical and systematic uncertainties for the measured physical observables is the final goal of this research project.

  20. Polychromatic Iterative Statistical Material Image Reconstruction for Photon-Counting Computed Tomography

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas Weidinger

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This work proposes a dedicated statistical algorithm to perform a direct reconstruction of material-decomposed images from data acquired with photon-counting detectors (PCDs in computed tomography. It is based on local approximations (surrogates of the negative logarithmic Poisson probability function. Exploiting the convexity of this function allows for parallel updates of all image pixels. Parallel updates can compensate for the rather slow convergence that is intrinsic to statistical algorithms. We investigate the accuracy of the algorithm for ideal photon-counting detectors. Complementarily, we apply the algorithm to simulation data of a realistic PCD with its spectral resolution limited by K-escape, charge sharing, and pulse-pileup. For data from both an ideal and realistic PCD, the proposed algorithm is able to correct beam-hardening artifacts and quantitatively determine the material fractions of the chosen basis materials. Via regularization we were able to achieve a reduction of image noise for the realistic PCD that is up to 90% lower compared to material images form a linear, image-based material decomposition using FBP images. Additionally, we find a dependence of the algorithms convergence speed on the threshold selection within the PCD.

  1. Classical model of intermediate statistics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaniadakis, G.

    1994-01-01

    In this work we present a classical kinetic model of intermediate statistics. In the case of Brownian particles we show that the Fermi-Dirac (FD) and Bose-Einstein (BE) distributions can be obtained, just as the Maxwell-Boltzmann (MD) distribution, as steady states of a classical kinetic equation that intrinsically takes into account an exclusion-inclusion principle. In our model the intermediate statistics are obtained as steady states of a system of coupled nonlinear kinetic equations, where the coupling constants are the transmutational potentials η κκ' . We show that, besides the FD-BE intermediate statistics extensively studied from the quantum point of view, we can also study the MB-FD and MB-BE ones. Moreover, our model allows us to treat the three-state mixing FD-MB-BE intermediate statistics. For boson and fermion mixing in a D-dimensional space, we obtain a family of FD-BE intermediate statistics by varying the transmutational potential η BF . This family contains, as a particular case when η BF =0, the quantum statistics recently proposed by L. Wu, Z. Wu, and J. Sun [Phys. Lett. A 170, 280 (1992)]. When we consider the two-dimensional FD-BE statistics, we derive an analytic expression of the fraction of fermions. When the temperature T→∞, the system is composed by an equal number of bosons and fermions, regardless of the value of η BF . On the contrary, when T=0, η BF becomes important and, according to its value, the system can be completely bosonic or fermionic, or composed both by bosons and fermions

  2. Textual information access statistical models

    CERN Document Server

    Gaussier, Eric

    2013-01-01

    This book presents statistical models that have recently been developed within several research communities to access information contained in text collections. The problems considered are linked to applications aiming at facilitating information access:- information extraction and retrieval;- text classification and clustering;- opinion mining;- comprehension aids (automatic summarization, machine translation, visualization).In order to give the reader as complete a description as possible, the focus is placed on the probability models used in the applications

  3. Binomial distribution of Poisson statistics and tracks overlapping probability to estimate total tracks count with low uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khayat, Omid; Afarideh, Hossein; Mohammadnia, Meisam

    2015-01-01

    In the solid state nuclear track detectors of chemically etched type, nuclear tracks with center-to-center neighborhood of distance shorter than two times the radius of tracks will emerge as overlapping tracks. Track overlapping in this type of detectors causes tracks count losses and it becomes rather severe in high track densities. Therefore, tracks counting in this condition should include a correction factor for count losses of different tracks overlapping orders since a number of overlapping tracks may be counted as one track. Another aspect of the problem is the cases where imaging the whole area of the detector and counting all tracks are not possible. In these conditions a statistical generalization method is desired to be applicable in counting a segmented area of the detector and the results can be generalized to the whole surface of the detector. Also there is a challenge in counting the tracks in densely overlapped tracks because not sufficient geometrical or contextual information are available. It this paper we present a statistical counting method which gives the user a relation between the tracks overlapping probabilities on a segmented area of the detector surface and the total number of tracks. To apply the proposed method one can estimate the total number of tracks on a solid state detector of arbitrary shape and dimensions by approximating the tracks averaged area, whole detector surface area and some orders of tracks overlapping probabilities. It will be shown that this method is applicable in high and ultra high density tracks images and the count loss error can be enervated using a statistical generalization approach. - Highlights: • A correction factor for count losses of different tracks overlapping orders. • For the cases imaging the whole area of the detector is not possible. • Presenting a statistical generalization method for segmented areas. • Giving a relation between the tracks overlapping probabilities and the total tracks

  4. Statistical measurement of the gamma-ray source-count distribution as a function of energy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zechlin, H.-S.; Cuoco, A.; Donato, F.; Fornengo, N.; Regis, M.

    2017-01-01

    Photon counts statistics have recently been proven to provide a sensitive observable for characterizing gamma-ray source populations and for measuring the composition of the gamma-ray sky. In this work, we generalize the use of the standard 1-point probability distribution function (1pPDF) to decompose the high-latitude gamma-ray emission observed with Fermi-LAT into: (i) point-source contributions, (ii) the Galactic foreground contribution, and (iii) a diffuse isotropic background contribution. We analyze gamma-ray data in five adjacent energy bands between 1 and 171 GeV. We measure the source-count distribution dN/dS as a function of energy, and demonstrate that our results extend current measurements from source catalogs to the regime of so far undetected sources. Our method improves the sensitivity for resolving point-source populations by about one order of magnitude in flux. The dN/dS distribution as a function of flux is found to be compatible with a broken power law. We derive upper limits on further possible breaks as well as the angular power of unresolved sources. We discuss the composition of the gamma-ray sky and capabilities of the 1pPDF method.

  5. Improved model for statistical alignment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Miklos, I.; Toroczkai, Z. (Zoltan)

    2001-01-01

    The statistical approach to molecular sequence evolution involves the stochastic modeling of the substitution, insertion and deletion processes. Substitution has been modeled in a reliable way for more than three decades by using finite Markov-processes. Insertion and deletion, however, seem to be more difficult to model, and thc recent approaches cannot acceptably deal with multiple insertions and deletions. A new method based on a generating function approach is introduced to describe the multiple insertion process. The presented algorithm computes the approximate joint probability of two sequences in 0(13) running time where 1 is the geometric mean of the sequence lengths.

  6. Physics colloquium: Single-electron counting in quantum metrology and in statistical mechanics

    CERN Multimedia

    Geneva University

    2011-01-01

    GENEVA UNIVERSITY Ecole de physique Département de physique nucléaire et corspusculaire 24, quai Ernest-Ansermet 1211 Genève 4 Tél.: (022) 379 62 73 Fax: (022) 379 69 92olé   Lundi 17 octobre 2011 17h00 - Ecole de Physique, Auditoire Stueckelberg PHYSICS COLLOQUIUM « Single-electron counting in quantum metrology and in statistical mechanics » Prof. Jukka Pekola Low Temperature Laboratory, Aalto University Helsinki, Finland   First I discuss the basics of single-electron tunneling and its potential applications in metrology. My main focus is in developing an accurate source of single-electron current for the realization of the unit ampere. I discuss the principle and the present status of the so-called single- electron turnstile. Investigation of errors in transporting electrons one by one has revealed a wealth of observations on fundamental phenomena in mesoscopic superconductivity, including individual Andreev...

  7. RCT: Module 2.03, Counting Errors and Statistics, Course 8768

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hillmer, Kurt T. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2017-04-01

    Radiological sample analysis involves the observation of a random process that may or may not occur and an estimation of the amount of radioactive material present based on that observation. Across the country, radiological control personnel are using the activity measurements to make decisions that may affect the health and safety of workers at those facilities and their surrounding environments. This course will present an overview of measurement processes, a statistical evaluation of both measurements and equipment performance, and some actions to take to minimize the sources of error in count room operations. This course will prepare the student with the skills necessary for radiological control technician (RCT) qualification by passing quizzes, tests, and the RCT Comprehensive Phase 1, Unit 2 Examination (TEST 27566) and by providing in the field skills.

  8. Elementary Modeling: Connecting Counting with Sharing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wickstrom, Megan H.; Aytes, Tracy

    2018-01-01

    Mathematical modeling is an important and accessible process for elementary school students because it allows them to use mathematics to engage with the world and consider if and when to use it to help them reason about a situation. It fosters productive struggle and twenty-first-century skills that will aid them throughout their lifetime.

  9. Active Learning with Statistical Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1995-01-01

    Active Learning with Statistical Models ASC-9217041, NSF CDA-9309300 6. AUTHOR(S) David A. Cohn, Zoubin Ghahramani, and Michael I. Jordan 7. PERFORMING...TERMS 15. NUMBER OF PAGES Al, MIT, Artificial Intelligence, active learning , queries, locally weighted 6 regression, LOESS, mixtures of gaussians...COMPUTATIONAL LEARNING DEPARTMENT OF BRAIN AND COGNITIVE SCIENCES A.I. Memo No. 1522 January 9. 1995 C.B.C.L. Paper No. 110 Active Learning with

  10. A unified statistical framework for material decomposition using multienergy photon counting x-ray detectors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choi, Jiyoung; Kang, Dong-Goo; Kang, Sunghoon; Sung, Younghun; Ye, Jong Chul

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: Material decomposition using multienergy photon counting x-ray detectors (PCXD) has been an active research area over the past few years. Even with some success, the problem of optimal energy selection and three material decomposition including malignant tissue is still on going research topic, and more systematic studies are required. This paper aims to address this in a unified statistical framework in a mammographic environment.Methods: A unified statistical framework for energy level optimization and decomposition of three materials is proposed. In particular, an energy level optimization algorithm is derived using the theory of the minimum variance unbiased estimator, and an iterative algorithm is proposed for material composition as well as system parameter estimation under the unified statistical estimation framework. To verify the performance of the proposed algorithm, the authors performed simulation studies as well as real experiments using physical breast phantom and ex vivo breast specimen. Quantitative comparisons using various performance measures were conducted, and qualitative performance evaluations for ex vivo breast specimen were also performed by comparing the ground-truth malignant tissue areas identified by radiologists.Results: Both simulation and real experiments confirmed that the optimized energy bins by the proposed method allow better material decomposition quality. Moreover, for the specimen thickness estimation errors up to 2 mm, the proposed method provides good reconstruction results in both simulation and real ex vivo breast phantom experiments compared to existing methods.Conclusions: The proposed statistical framework of PCXD has been successfully applied for the energy optimization and decomposition of three material in a mammographic environment. Experimental results using the physical breast phantom and ex vivo specimen support the practicality of the proposed algorithm

  11. Modeling Repeated Count Data : Some Extensions of the Rasch Poisson Counts Model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Duijn, M.A.J.; Jansen, Margo

    1995-01-01

    We consider data that can be summarized as an N X K table of counts-for example, test data obtained by administering K tests to N subjects. The cell entries y(ij) are assumed to be conditionally independent Poisson-distributed random variables, given the NK Poisson intensity parameters mu(ij). The

  12. Full counting statistics in a serially coupled double quantum dot system with spin-orbit coupling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Qiang; Xue, Hai-Bin; Xie, Hai-Qing

    2018-04-01

    We study the full counting statistics of electron transport through a serially coupled double quantum dot (QD) system with spin-orbit coupling (SOC) weakly coupled to two electrodes. We demonstrate that the spin polarizations of the source and drain electrodes determine whether the shot noise maintains super-Poissonian distribution, and whether the sign transitions of the skewness from positive to negative values and of the kurtosis from negative to positive values take place. In particular, the interplay between the spin polarizations of the source and drain electrodes and the magnitude of the external magnetic field, can give rise to a gate-voltage-tunable strong negative differential conductance (NDC) and the shot noise in this NDC region is significantly enhanced. Importantly, for a given SOC parameter, the obvious variation of the high-order current cumulants as a function of the energy-level detuning in a certain range, especially the dip position of the Fano factor of the skewness can be used to qualitatively extract the information about the magnitude of the SOC.

  13. Bilinear modulation models for seasonal tables of counts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    B.D. Marx (Brian); P.H.C. Eilers (Paul); J. Gampe (Jutta); R. Rau (Roland)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractWe propose generalized linear models for time or age-time tables of seasonal counts, with the goal of better understanding seasonal patterns in the data. The linear predictor contains a smooth component for the trend and the product of a smooth component (the modulation) and a periodic

  14. GIGMF - A statistical model program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vladuca, G.; Deberth, C.

    1978-01-01

    The program GIGMF computes the differential and integrated statistical model cross sections for the reactions proceeding through a compound nuclear stage. The computational method is based on the Hauser-Feshbach-Wolfenstein theory, modified to include the modern version of Tepel et al. Although the program was written for a PDP-15 computer, with 16K high speed memory, many reaction channels can be taken into account with the following restrictions: the pro ectile spin must be less than 2, the maximum spin momenta of the compound nucleus can not be greater than 10. These restrictions are due solely to the storage allotments and may be easily relaxed. The energy of the impinging particle, the target and projectile masses, the spin and paritjes of the projectile, target, emergent and residual nuclei the maximum orbital momentum and transmission coefficients for each reaction channel are the input parameters of the program. (author)

  15. Regression models for categorical, count, and related variables an applied approach

    CERN Document Server

    Hoffmann, John P

    2016-01-01

    Social science and behavioral science students and researchers are often confronted with data that are categorical, count a phenomenon, or have been collected over time. Sociologists examining the likelihood of interracial marriage, political scientists studying voting behavior, criminologists counting the number of offenses people commit, health scientists studying the number of suicides across neighborhoods, and psychologists modeling mental health treatment success are all interested in outcomes that are not continuous. Instead, they must measure and analyze these events and phenomena in a discrete manner.   This book provides an introduction and overview of several statistical models designed for these types of outcomes--all presented with the assumption that the reader has only a good working knowledge of elementary algebra and has taken introductory statistics and linear regression analysis.   Numerous examples from the social sciences demonstrate the practical applications of these models. The chapte...

  16. Comparing distribution models for small samples of overdispersed counts of freshwater fish

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaudor, Lise; Lamouroux, Nicolas; Olivier, Jean-Michel

    2011-05-01

    The study of species abundance often relies on repeated abundance counts whose number is limited by logistic or financial constraints. The distribution of abundance counts is generally right-skewed (i.e. with many zeros and few high values) and needs to be modelled for statistical inference. We used an extensive dataset involving about 100,000 fish individuals of 12 freshwater fish species collected in electrofishing points (7 m 2) during 350 field surveys made in 25 stream sites, in order to compare the performance and the generality of four distribution models of counts (Poisson, negative binomial and their zero-inflated counterparts). The negative binomial distribution was the best model (Bayesian Information Criterion) for 58% of the samples (species-survey combinations) and was suitable for a variety of life histories, habitat, and sample characteristics. The performance of the models was closely related to samples' statistics such as total abundance and variance. Finally, we illustrated the consequences of a distribution assumption by calculating confidence intervals around the mean abundance, either based on the most suitable distribution assumption or on an asymptotical, distribution-free (Student's) method. Student's method generally corresponded to narrower confidence intervals, especially when there were few (≤3) non-null counts in the samples.

  17. A Frank mixture copula family for modeling higher-order correlations of neural spike counts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Onken, Arno; Obermayer, Klaus

    2009-01-01

    In order to evaluate the importance of higher-order correlations in neural spike count codes, flexible statistical models of dependent multivariate spike counts are required. Copula families, parametric multivariate distributions that represent dependencies, can be applied to construct such models. We introduce the Frank mixture family as a new copula family that has separate parameters for all pairwise and higher-order correlations. In contrast to the Farlie-Gumbel-Morgenstern copula family that shares this property, the Frank mixture copula can model strong correlations. We apply spike count models based on the Frank mixture copula to data generated by a network of leaky integrate-and-fire neurons and compare the goodness of fit to distributions based on the Farlie-Gumbel-Morgenstern family. Finally, we evaluate the importance of using proper single neuron spike count distributions on the Shannon information. We find notable deviations in the entropy that increase with decreasing firing rates. Moreover, we find that the Frank mixture family increases the log likelihood of the fit significantly compared to the Farlie-Gumbel-Morgenstern family. This shows that the Frank mixture copula is a useful tool to assess the importance of higher-order correlations in spike count codes.

  18. The negative binomial distribution as a model for external corrosion defect counts in buried pipelines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Valor, Alma; Alfonso, Lester; Caleyo, Francisco; Vidal, Julio; Perez-Baruch, Eloy; Hallen, José M.

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Observed external-corrosion defects in underground pipelines revealed a tendency to cluster. • The Poisson distribution is unable to fit extensive count data for these type of defects. • In contrast, the negative binomial distribution provides a suitable count model for them. • Two spatial stochastic processes lead to the negative binomial distribution for defect counts. • They are the Gamma-Poisson mixed process and the compound Poisson process. • A Rogeŕs process also arises as a plausible temporal stochastic process leading to corrosion defect clustering and to negative binomially distributed defect counts. - Abstract: The spatial distribution of external corrosion defects in buried pipelines is usually described as a Poisson process, which leads to corrosion defects being randomly distributed along the pipeline. However, in real operating conditions, the spatial distribution of defects considerably departs from Poisson statistics due to the aggregation of defects in groups or clusters. In this work, the statistical analysis of real corrosion data from underground pipelines operating in southern Mexico leads to conclude that the negative binomial distribution provides a better description for defect counts. The origin of this distribution from several processes is discussed. The analysed processes are: mixed Gamma-Poisson, compound Poisson and Roger’s processes. The physical reasons behind them are discussed for the specific case of soil corrosion.

  19. Hidden Markov models for zero-inflated Poisson counts with an application to substance use.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeSantis, Stacia M; Bandyopadhyay, Dipankar

    2011-06-30

    Paradigms for substance abuse cue-reactivity research involve pharmacological or stressful stimulation designed to elicit stress and craving responses in cocaine-dependent subjects. It is unclear as to whether stress induced from participation in such studies increases drug-seeking behavior. We propose a 2-state Hidden Markov model to model the number of cocaine abuses per week before and after participation in a stress-and cue-reactivity study. The hypothesized latent state corresponds to 'high' or 'low' use. To account for a preponderance of zeros, we assume a zero-inflated Poisson model for the count data. Transition probabilities depend on the prior week's state, fixed demographic variables, and time-varying covariates. We adopt a Bayesian approach to model fitting, and use the conditional predictive ordinate statistic to demonstrate that the zero-inflated Poisson hidden Markov model outperforms other models for longitudinal count data. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  20. A statistical analysis of count normalization methods used in positron-emission tomography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holmes, T.J.; Ficke, D.C.; Snyder, D.L.

    1984-01-01

    As part of the Positron-Emission Tomography (PET) reconstruction process, annihilation counts are normalized for photon absorption, detector efficiency and detector-pair duty-cycle. Several normalization methods of time-of-flight and conventional systems are analyzed mathematically for count bias and variance. The results of the study have some implications on hardware and software complexity and on image noise and distortion

  1. Bulk tank somatic cell counts analyzed by statistical process control tools to identify and monitor subclinical mastitis incidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lukas, J M; Hawkins, D M; Kinsel, M L; Reneau, J K

    2005-11-01

    The objective of this study was to examine the relationship between monthly Dairy Herd Improvement (DHI) subclinical mastitis and new infection rate estimates and daily bulk tank somatic cell count (SCC) summarized by statistical process control tools. Dairy Herd Improvement Association test-day subclinical mastitis and new infection rate estimates along with daily or every other day bulk tank SCC data were collected for 12 mo of 2003 from 275 Upper Midwest dairy herds. Herds were divided into 5 herd production categories. A linear score [LNS = ln(BTSCC/100,000)/0.693147 + 3] was calculated for each individual bulk tank SCC. For both the raw SCC and the transformed data, the mean and sigma were calculated using the statistical quality control individual measurement and moving range chart procedure of Statistical Analysis System. One hundred eighty-three herds of the 275 herds from the study data set were then randomly selected and the raw (method 1) and transformed (method 2) bulk tank SCC mean and sigma were used to develop models for predicting subclinical mastitis and new infection rate estimates. Herd production category was also included in all models as 5 dummy variables. Models were validated by calculating estimates of subclinical mastitis and new infection rates for the remaining 92 herds and plotting them against observed values of each of the dependents. Only herd production category and bulk tank SCC mean were significant and remained in the final models. High R2 values (0.83 and 0.81 for methods 1 and 2, respectively) indicated a strong correlation between the bulk tank SCC and herd's subclinical mastitis prevalence. The standard errors of the estimate were 4.02 and 4.28% for methods 1 and 2, respectively, and decreased with increasing herd production. As a case study, Shewhart Individual Measurement Charts were plotted from the bulk tank SCC to identify shifts in mastitis incidence. Four of 5 charts examined signaled a change in bulk tank SCC before

  2. Assessment of the statistical uncertainty affecting a counting; Evaluation de l'incertitude statistique affectant un comptage

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cluchet, J.

    1960-07-01

    After a recall of some aspects regarding the Gauss law and the Gauss curve, this note addresses the case of performance of a large number of measurements of a source activity by means of a sensor (counter, scintillator, nuclear emulsion, etc.) at equal intervals, and with a number of events which is not rigorously constant. Thus, it addresses measurements, and more particularly counting operations in a random or statistical environment. It more particularly addresses the case of a counting rate due to a source greater (and then lower) than twenty times the Eigen movement. The validity of curves is discussed.

  3. Statistical modeling of Earth's plasmasphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veibell, Victoir

    The behavior of plasma near Earth's geosynchronous orbit is of vital importance to both satellite operators and magnetosphere modelers because it also has a significant influence on energy transport, ion composition, and induced currents. The system is highly complex in both time and space, making the forecasting of extreme space weather events difficult. This dissertation examines the behavior and statistical properties of plasma mass density near geosynchronous orbit by using both linear and nonlinear models, as well as epoch analyses, in an attempt to better understand the physical processes that precipitates and drives its variations. It is shown that while equatorial mass density does vary significantly on an hourly timescale when a drop in the disturbance time scale index ( Dst) was observed, it does not vary significantly between the day of a Dst event onset and the day immediately following. It is also shown that increases in equatorial mass density were not, on average, preceded or followed by any significant change in the examined solar wind or geomagnetic variables, including Dst, despite prior results that considered a few selected events and found a notable influence. It is verified that equatorial mass density and and solar activity via the F10.7 index have a strong correlation, which is stronger over longer timescales such as 27 days than it is over an hourly timescale. It is then shown that this connection seems to affect the behavior of equatorial mass density most during periods of strong solar activity leading to large mass density reactions to Dst drops for high values of F10.7. It is also shown that equatorial mass density behaves differently before and after events based on the value of F10.7 at the onset of an equatorial mass density event or a Dst event, and that a southward interplanetary magnetic field at onset leads to slowed mass density growth after event onset. These behavioral differences provide insight into how solar and geomagnetic

  4. Peak-counts blood flow model-errors and limitations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mullani, N.A.; Marani, S.K.; Ekas, R.D.; Gould, K.L.

    1984-01-01

    The peak-counts model has several advantages, but its use may be limited due to the condition that the venous egress may not be negligible at the time of peak-counts. Consequently, blood flow measurements by the peak-counts model will depend on the bolus size, bolus duration, and the minimum transit time of the bolus through the region of interest. The effect of bolus size on the measurement of extraction fraction and blood flow was evaluated by injecting 1 to 30ml of rubidium chloride in the femoral vein of a dog and measuring the myocardial activity with a beta probe over the heart. Regional blood flow measurements were not found to vary with bolus sizes up to 30ml. The effect of bolus duration was studied by injecting a 10cc bolus of tracer at different speeds in the femoral vein of a dog. All intravenous injections undergo a broadening of the bolus duration due to the transit time of the tracer through the lungs and the heart. This transit time was found to range from 4-6 second FWHM and dominates the duration of the bolus to the myocardium for up to 3 second injections. A computer simulation has been carried out in which the different parameters of delay time, extraction fraction, and bolus duration can be changed to assess the errors in the peak-counts model. The results of the simulations show that the error will be greatest for short transit time delays and for low extraction fractions

  5. Probing NWP model deficiencies by statistical postprocessing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rosgaard, Martin Haubjerg; Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg; Nielsen, Torben S.

    2016-01-01

    The objective in this article is twofold. On one hand, a Model Output Statistics (MOS) framework for improved wind speed forecast accuracy is described and evaluated. On the other hand, the approach explored identifies unintuitive explanatory value from a diagnostic variable in an operational....... Based on the statistical model candidates inferred from the data, the lifted index NWP model diagnostic is consistently found among the NWP model predictors of the best performing statistical models across sites....

  6. Reference analysis of the signal + background model in counting experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casadei, D.

    2012-01-01

    The model representing two independent Poisson processes, labelled as ``signal'' and ``background'' and both contributing additively to the total number of counted events, is considered from a Bayesian point of view. This is a widely used model for the searches of rare or exotic events in presence of a background source, as for example in the searches performed by high-energy physics experiments. In the assumption of prior knowledge about the background yield, a reference prior is obtained for the signal alone and its properties are studied. Finally, the properties of the full solution, the marginal reference posterior, are illustrated with few examples.

  7. Counting Better? An Examination of the Impact of Quantitative Method Teaching on Statistical Anxiety and Confidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chamberlain, John Martyn; Hillier, John; Signoretta, Paola

    2015-01-01

    This article reports the results of research concerned with students' statistical anxiety and confidence to both complete and learn to complete statistical tasks. Data were collected at the beginning and end of a quantitative method statistics module. Students recognised the value of numeracy skills but felt they were not necessarily relevant for…

  8. A new model for the simplification of particle counting data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. F. Fadal

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a three-parameter mathematical model to describe the particle size distribution in a water sample. The proposed model offers some conceptual advantages over two other models reported on previously, and also provides a better fit to the particle counting data obtained from 321 water samples taken over three years at a large South African drinking water supplier. Using the data from raw water samples taken from a moderately turbid, large surface impoundment, as well as samples from the same water after treatment, typical ranges of the model parameters are presented for both raw and treated water. Once calibrated, the model allows the calculation and comparison of total particle number and volumes over any randomly selected size interval of interest.

  9. Negative binomial mixed models for analyzing microbiome count data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xinyan; Mallick, Himel; Tang, Zaixiang; Zhang, Lei; Cui, Xiangqin; Benson, Andrew K; Yi, Nengjun

    2017-01-03

    Recent advances in next-generation sequencing (NGS) technology enable researchers to collect a large volume of metagenomic sequencing data. These data provide valuable resources for investigating interactions between the microbiome and host environmental/clinical factors. In addition to the well-known properties of microbiome count measurements, for example, varied total sequence reads across samples, over-dispersion and zero-inflation, microbiome studies usually collect samples with hierarchical structures, which introduce correlation among the samples and thus further complicate the analysis and interpretation of microbiome count data. In this article, we propose negative binomial mixed models (NBMMs) for detecting the association between the microbiome and host environmental/clinical factors for correlated microbiome count data. Although having not dealt with zero-inflation, the proposed mixed-effects models account for correlation among the samples by incorporating random effects into the commonly used fixed-effects negative binomial model, and can efficiently handle over-dispersion and varying total reads. We have developed a flexible and efficient IWLS (Iterative Weighted Least Squares) algorithm to fit the proposed NBMMs by taking advantage of the standard procedure for fitting the linear mixed models. We evaluate and demonstrate the proposed method via extensive simulation studies and the application to mouse gut microbiome data. The results show that the proposed method has desirable properties and outperform the previously used methods in terms of both empirical power and Type I error. The method has been incorporated into the freely available R package BhGLM ( http://www.ssg.uab.edu/bhglm/ and http://github.com/abbyyan3/BhGLM ), providing a useful tool for analyzing microbiome data.

  10. Counting statistics of transport through Coulomb blockade nanostructures: High-order cumulants and non-Markovian effects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Flindt, Christian; Novotny, Tomás; Braggio, Alessandro

    2010-01-01

    Recent experimental progress has made it possible to detect in real-time single electrons tunneling through Coulomb blockade nanostructures, thereby allowing for precise measurements of the statistical distribution of the number of transferred charges, the so-called full counting statistics...... interactions. Our recursive method can treat systems with many states as well as non-Markovian dynamics. We illustrate our approach with three examples of current experimental relevance: bunching transport through a two-level quantum dot, transport through a nanoelectromechanical system with dynamical Franck...

  11. Poissonian and binomial models in radionuclide metrology by liquid scintillation counting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grau Malonda, A.

    1990-01-01

    Binomial and Poissonian models developed for calculating the counting efficiency from a free parameter is analysed in this paper. This model have been applied to liquid scintillator counting systems with two or three photomultipliers. It is mathematically demostrated that both models are equivalent and that the counting efficiencies calculated either from one or the other model are identical. (Author)

  12. Multimode model for projective photon-counting measurements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tualle-Brouri, Rosa; Ourjoumtsev, Alexei; Dantan, Aurelien; Grangier, Philippe; Wubs, Martijn; Soerensen, Anders S.

    2009-01-01

    We present a general model to account for the multimode nature of the quantum electromagnetic field in projective photon-counting measurements. We focus on photon-subtraction experiments, where non-Gaussian states are produced conditionally. These are useful states for continuous-variable quantum-information processing. We present a general method called mode reduction that reduces the multimode model to an effective two-mode problem. We apply this method to a multimode model describing broadband parametric down-conversion, thereby improving the analysis of existing experimental results. The main improvement is that spatial and frequency filters before the photon detector are taken into account explicitly. We find excellent agreement with previously published experimental results, using fewer free parameters than before, and discuss the implications of our analysis for the optimized production of states with negative Wigner functions.

  13. Homicides by Police: Comparing Counts From the National Violent Death Reporting System, Vital Statistics, and Supplementary Homicide Reports.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barber, Catherine; Azrael, Deborah; Cohen, Amy; Miller, Matthew; Thymes, Deonza; Wang, David Enze; Hemenway, David

    2016-05-01

    To evaluate the National Violent Death Reporting System (NVDRS) as a surveillance system for homicides by law enforcement officers. We assessed sensitivity and positive predictive value of the NVDRS "type of death" variable against our study count of homicides by police, which we derived from NVDRS coded and narrative data for states participating in NVDRS 2005 to 2012. We compared state counts of police homicides from NVDRS, Vital Statistics, and Federal Bureau of Investigation Supplementary Homicide Reports. We identified 1552 police homicides in the 16 states. Positive predictive value and sensitivity of the NVDRS "type of death" variable for police homicides were high (98% and 90%, respectively). Counts from Vital Statistics and Supplementary Homicide Reports were 58% and 48%, respectively, of our study total; gaps varied widely by state. The annual rate of police homicide (0.24/100,000) varied 5-fold by state and 8-fold by race/ethnicity. NVDRS provides more complete data on police homicides than do existing systems. Expanding NVDRS to all 50 states and making 2 improvements we identify will be an efficient way to provide the nation with more accurate, detailed data on homicides by law enforcement.

  14. Statistical modelling of fish stocks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kvist, Trine

    1999-01-01

    for modelling the dynamics of a fish population is suggested. A new approach is introduced to analyse the sources of variation in age composition data, which is one of the most important sources of information in the cohort based models for estimation of stock abundancies and mortalities. The approach combines...... and it is argued that an approach utilising stochastic differential equations might be advantagous in fish stoch assessments....

  15. Statistical lung model for microdosimetry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fisher, D.R.; Hadley, R.T.

    1984-03-01

    To calculate the microdosimetry of plutonium in the lung, a mathematical description is needed of lung tissue microstructure that defines source-site parameters. Beagle lungs were expanded using a glutaraldehyde fixative at 30 cm water pressure. Tissue specimens, five microns thick, were stained with hematoxylin and eosin then studied using an image analyzer. Measurements were made along horizontal lines through the magnified tissue image. The distribution of air space and tissue chord lengths and locations of epithelial cell nuclei were recorded from about 10,000 line scans. The distribution parameters constituted a model of lung microstructure for predicting the paths of random alpha particle tracks in the lung and the probability of traversing biologically sensitive sites. This lung model may be used in conjunction with established deposition and retention models for determining the microdosimetry in the pulmonary lung for a wide variety of inhaled radioactive materials

  16. Assessment of noise in a digital image using the join-count statistic and the Moran test

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kehshih Chuang; Huang, H.K.

    1992-01-01

    It is assumed that data bits of a pixel in digital images can be divided into signal and noise bits. The signal bits occupy the most significant part of the pixel. The signal parts of each pixel are correlated while the noise parts are uncorrelated. Two statistical methods, the Moran test and the join-count statistic, are used to examine the noise parts. Images from computerized tomography, magnetic resonance and computed radiography are used for the evaluation of the noise bits. A residual image is formed by subtracting the original image from its smoothed version. The noise level in the residual image is then identical to that in the original image. Both statistical tests are then performed on the bit planes of the residual image. Results show that most digital images contain only 8-9 bits of correlated information. Both methods are easy to implement and fast to perform. (author)

  17. Statistical modelling for ship propulsion efficiency

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Jóan Petur; Jacobsen, Daniel J.; Winther, Ole

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents a state-of-the-art systems approach to statistical modelling of fuel efficiency in ship propulsion, and also a novel and publicly available data set of high quality sensory data. Two statistical model approaches are investigated and compared: artificial neural networks...

  18. Actuarial statistics with generalized linear mixed models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Antonio, K.; Beirlant, J.

    2007-01-01

    Over the last decade the use of generalized linear models (GLMs) in actuarial statistics has received a lot of attention, starting from the actuarial illustrations in the standard text by McCullagh and Nelder [McCullagh, P., Nelder, J.A., 1989. Generalized linear models. In: Monographs on Statistics

  19. Spherical Process Models for Global Spatial Statistics

    KAUST Repository

    Jeong, Jaehong; Jun, Mikyoung; Genton, Marc G.

    2017-01-01

    Statistical models used in geophysical, environmental, and climate science applications must reflect the curvature of the spatial domain in global data. Over the past few decades, statisticians have developed covariance models that capture

  20. Statistical Models and Methods for Lifetime Data

    CERN Document Server

    Lawless, Jerald F

    2011-01-01

    Praise for the First Edition"An indispensable addition to any serious collection on lifetime data analysis and . . . a valuable contribution to the statistical literature. Highly recommended . . ."-Choice"This is an important book, which will appeal to statisticians working on survival analysis problems."-Biometrics"A thorough, unified treatment of statistical models and methods used in the analysis of lifetime data . . . this is a highly competent and agreeable statistical textbook."-Statistics in MedicineThe statistical analysis of lifetime or response time data is a key tool in engineering,

  1. Effects of environmental variables on invasive amphibian activity: Using model selection on quantiles for counts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muller, Benjamin J.; Cade, Brian S.; Schwarzkoph, Lin

    2018-01-01

    Many different factors influence animal activity. Often, the value of an environmental variable may influence significantly the upper or lower tails of the activity distribution. For describing relationships with heterogeneous boundaries, quantile regressions predict a quantile of the conditional distribution of the dependent variable. A quantile count model extends linear quantile regression methods to discrete response variables, and is useful if activity is quantified by trapping, where there may be many tied (equal) values in the activity distribution, over a small range of discrete values. Additionally, different environmental variables in combination may have synergistic or antagonistic effects on activity, so examining their effects together, in a modeling framework, is a useful approach. Thus, model selection on quantile counts can be used to determine the relative importance of different variables in determining activity, across the entire distribution of capture results. We conducted model selection on quantile count models to describe the factors affecting activity (numbers of captures) of cane toads (Rhinella marina) in response to several environmental variables (humidity, temperature, rainfall, wind speed, and moon luminosity) over eleven months of trapping. Environmental effects on activity are understudied in this pest animal. In the dry season, model selection on quantile count models suggested that rainfall positively affected activity, especially near the lower tails of the activity distribution. In the wet season, wind speed limited activity near the maximum of the distribution, while minimum activity increased with minimum temperature. This statistical methodology allowed us to explore, in depth, how environmental factors influenced activity across the entire distribution, and is applicable to any survey or trapping regime, in which environmental variables affect activity.

  2. Statistics and the shell model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weidenmueller, H.A.

    1985-01-01

    Starting with N. Bohr's paper on compound-nucleus reactions, we confront regular dynamical features and chaotic motion in nuclei. The shell-model and, more generally, mean-field theories describe average nuclear properties which are thus identified as regular features. The fluctuations about the average show chaotic behaviour of the same type as found in classical chaotic systems upon quantisation. These features are therefore generic and quite independent of the specific dynamics of the nucleus. A novel method to calculate fluctuations is discussed, and the results of this method are described. (orig.)

  3. Andreev Bound States Formation and Quasiparticle Trapping in Quench Dynamics Revealed by Time-Dependent Counting Statistics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Souto, R Seoane; Martín-Rodero, A; Yeyati, A Levy

    2016-12-23

    We analyze the quantum quench dynamics in the formation of a phase-biased superconducting nanojunction. We find that in the absence of an external relaxation mechanism and for very general conditions the system gets trapped in a metastable state, corresponding to a nonequilibrium population of the Andreev bound states. The use of the time-dependent full counting statistics analysis allows us to extract information on the asymptotic population of even and odd many-body states, demonstrating that a universal behavior, dependent only on the Andreev state energy, is reached in the quantum point contact limit. These results shed light on recent experimental observations on quasiparticle trapping in superconducting atomic contacts.

  4. Making Women Count: Gender-Typing, Technology and Path Dependencies in Dutch Statistical Data Processing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van den Ende, Jan; van Oost, Elizabeth C.J.

    2001-01-01

    This article is a longitudinal analysis of the relation between gendered labour divisions and new data processing technologies at the Dutch Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS). Following social-constructivist and evolutionary economic approaches, the authors hold that the relation between technology

  5. Regression analysis of mixed recurrent-event and panel-count data with additive rate models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Liang; Zhao, Hui; Sun, Jianguo; Leisenring, Wendy; Robison, Leslie L

    2015-03-01

    Event-history studies of recurrent events are often conducted in fields such as demography, epidemiology, medicine, and social sciences (Cook and Lawless, 2007, The Statistical Analysis of Recurrent Events. New York: Springer-Verlag; Zhao et al., 2011, Test 20, 1-42). For such analysis, two types of data have been extensively investigated: recurrent-event data and panel-count data. However, in practice, one may face a third type of data, mixed recurrent-event and panel-count data or mixed event-history data. Such data occur if some study subjects are monitored or observed continuously and thus provide recurrent-event data, while the others are observed only at discrete times and hence give only panel-count data. A more general situation is that each subject is observed continuously over certain time periods but only at discrete times over other time periods. There exists little literature on the analysis of such mixed data except that published by Zhu et al. (2013, Statistics in Medicine 32, 1954-1963). In this article, we consider the regression analysis of mixed data using the additive rate model and develop some estimating equation-based approaches to estimate the regression parameters of interest. Both finite sample and asymptotic properties of the resulting estimators are established, and the numerical studies suggest that the proposed methodology works well for practical situations. The approach is applied to a Childhood Cancer Survivor Study that motivated this study. © 2014, The International Biometric Society.

  6. Bayesian models: A statistical primer for ecologists

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hobbs, N. Thompson; Hooten, Mevin B.

    2015-01-01

    Bayesian modeling has become an indispensable tool for ecological research because it is uniquely suited to deal with complexity in a statistically coherent way. This textbook provides a comprehensive and accessible introduction to the latest Bayesian methods—in language ecologists can understand. Unlike other books on the subject, this one emphasizes the principles behind the computations, giving ecologists a big-picture understanding of how to implement this powerful statistical approach.Bayesian Models is an essential primer for non-statisticians. It begins with a definition of probability and develops a step-by-step sequence of connected ideas, including basic distribution theory, network diagrams, hierarchical models, Markov chain Monte Carlo, and inference from single and multiple models. This unique book places less emphasis on computer coding, favoring instead a concise presentation of the mathematical statistics needed to understand how and why Bayesian analysis works. It also explains how to write out properly formulated hierarchical Bayesian models and use them in computing, research papers, and proposals.This primer enables ecologists to understand the statistical principles behind Bayesian modeling and apply them to research, teaching, policy, and management.Presents the mathematical and statistical foundations of Bayesian modeling in language accessible to non-statisticiansCovers basic distribution theory, network diagrams, hierarchical models, Markov chain Monte Carlo, and moreDeemphasizes computer coding in favor of basic principlesExplains how to write out properly factored statistical expressions representing Bayesian models

  7. Statistical Model-Based Face Pose Estimation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    GE Xinliang; YANG Jie; LI Feng; WANG Huahua

    2007-01-01

    A robust face pose estimation approach is proposed by using face shape statistical model approach and pose parameters are represented by trigonometric functions. The face shape statistical model is firstly built by analyzing the face shapes from different people under varying poses. The shape alignment is vital in the process of building the statistical model. Then, six trigonometric functions are employed to represent the face pose parameters. Lastly, the mapping function is constructed between face image and face pose by linearly relating different parameters. The proposed approach is able to estimate different face poses using a few face training samples. Experimental results are provided to demonstrate its efficiency and accuracy.

  8. Uncertainty the soul of modeling, probability & statistics

    CERN Document Server

    Briggs, William

    2016-01-01

    This book presents a philosophical approach to probability and probabilistic thinking, considering the underpinnings of probabilistic reasoning and modeling, which effectively underlie everything in data science. The ultimate goal is to call into question many standard tenets and lay the philosophical and probabilistic groundwork and infrastructure for statistical modeling. It is the first book devoted to the philosophy of data aimed at working scientists and calls for a new consideration in the practice of probability and statistics to eliminate what has been referred to as the "Cult of Statistical Significance". The book explains the philosophy of these ideas and not the mathematics, though there are a handful of mathematical examples. The topics are logically laid out, starting with basic philosophy as related to probability, statistics, and science, and stepping through the key probabilistic ideas and concepts, and ending with statistical models. Its jargon-free approach asserts that standard methods, suc...

  9. Subcritical Multiplicative Chaos for Regularized Counting Statistics from Random Matrix Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lambert, Gaultier; Ostrovsky, Dmitry; Simm, Nick

    2018-05-01

    For an {N × N} Haar distributed random unitary matrix U N , we consider the random field defined by counting the number of eigenvalues of U N in a mesoscopic arc centered at the point u on the unit circle. We prove that after regularizing at a small scale {ɛN > 0}, the renormalized exponential of this field converges as N \\to ∞ to a Gaussian multiplicative chaos measure in the whole subcritical phase. We discuss implications of this result for obtaining a lower bound on the maximum of the field. We also show that the moments of the total mass converge to a Selberg-like integral and by taking a further limit as the size of the arc diverges, we establish part of the conjectures in Ostrovsky (Nonlinearity 29(2):426-464, 2016). By an analogous construction, we prove that the multiplicative chaos measure coming from the sine process has the same distribution, which strongly suggests that this limiting object should be universal. Our approach to the L 1-phase is based on a generalization of the construction in Berestycki (Electron Commun Probab 22(27):12, 2017) to random fields which are only asymptotically Gaussian. In particular, our method could have applications to other random fields coming from either random matrix theory or a different context.

  10. Automated statistical modeling of analytical measurement systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jacobson, J.J.

    1992-01-01

    The statistical modeling of analytical measurement systems at the Idaho Chemical Processing Plant (ICPP) has been completely automated through computer software. The statistical modeling of analytical measurement systems is one part of a complete quality control program used by the Remote Analytical Laboratory (RAL) at the ICPP. The quality control program is an integration of automated data input, measurement system calibration, database management, and statistical process control. The quality control program and statistical modeling program meet the guidelines set forth by the American Society for Testing Materials and American National Standards Institute. A statistical model is a set of mathematical equations describing any systematic bias inherent in a measurement system and the precision of a measurement system. A statistical model is developed from data generated from the analysis of control standards. Control standards are samples which are made up at precise known levels by an independent laboratory and submitted to the RAL. The RAL analysts who process control standards do not know the values of those control standards. The object behind statistical modeling is to describe real process samples in terms of their bias and precision and, to verify that a measurement system is operating satisfactorily. The processing of control standards gives us this ability

  11. Bayesian Penalized Likelihood Image Reconstruction (Q.Clear) in 82Rb Cardiac PET: Impact of Count Statistics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Nana Louise; Tolbod, Lars Poulsen

    PET scans. 3) Static and dynamic images from a set of 7 patients (BSA: 1.6-2.2 m2) referred for 82Rb cardiac PET was analyzed using a range of beta factors. Results were compared to the institution’s standard clinical practice reconstruction protocol. All scans were performed on GE DMI Digital......Aim: Q.Clear reconstruction is expected to improve detection of perfusion defects in cardiac PET due to the high degree of image convergence and effective noise suppression. However, 82Rb (T½=76s) possess a special problem, since count statistics vary significantly not only between patients...... statistics using a cardiac PET phantom as well as a selection of clinical patients referred for 82Rb cardiac PET. Methods: The study consistent of 3 parts: 1) A thorax-cardiac phantom was scanned for 10 minutes after injection of 1110 MBq 82Rb. Frames at 3 different times after infusion were reconstructed...

  12. Topology for statistical modeling of petascale data.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pascucci, Valerio (University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT); Mascarenhas, Ajith Arthur; Rusek, Korben (Texas A& M University, College Station, TX); Bennett, Janine Camille; Levine, Joshua (University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT); Pebay, Philippe Pierre; Gyulassy, Attila (University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT); Thompson, David C.; Rojas, Joseph Maurice (Texas A& M University, College Station, TX)

    2011-07-01

    This document presents current technical progress and dissemination of results for the Mathematics for Analysis of Petascale Data (MAPD) project titled 'Topology for Statistical Modeling of Petascale Data', funded by the Office of Science Advanced Scientific Computing Research (ASCR) Applied Math program. Many commonly used algorithms for mathematical analysis do not scale well enough to accommodate the size or complexity of petascale data produced by computational simulations. The primary goal of this project is thus to develop new mathematical tools that address both the petascale size and uncertain nature of current data. At a high level, our approach is based on the complementary techniques of combinatorial topology and statistical modeling. In particular, we use combinatorial topology to filter out spurious data that would otherwise skew statistical modeling techniques, and we employ advanced algorithms from algebraic statistics to efficiently find globally optimal fits to statistical models. This document summarizes the technical advances we have made to date that were made possible in whole or in part by MAPD funding. These technical contributions can be divided loosely into three categories: (1) advances in the field of combinatorial topology, (2) advances in statistical modeling, and (3) new integrated topological and statistical methods.

  13. A comparison of different ways of including baseline counts in negative binomial models for data from falls prevention trials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Han; Kimber, Alan; Goodwin, Victoria A; Pickering, Ruth M

    2018-01-01

    A common design for a falls prevention trial is to assess falling at baseline, randomize participants into an intervention or control group, and ask them to record the number of falls they experience during a follow-up period of time. This paper addresses how best to include the baseline count in the analysis of the follow-up count of falls in negative binomial (NB) regression. We examine the performance of various approaches in simulated datasets where both counts are generated from a mixed Poisson distribution with shared random subject effect. Including the baseline count after log-transformation as a regressor in NB regression (NB-logged) or as an offset (NB-offset) resulted in greater power than including the untransformed baseline count (NB-unlogged). Cook and Wei's conditional negative binomial (CNB) model replicates the underlying process generating the data. In our motivating dataset, a statistically significant intervention effect resulted from the NB-logged, NB-offset, and CNB models, but not from NB-unlogged, and large, outlying baseline counts were overly influential in NB-unlogged but not in NB-logged. We conclude that there is little to lose by including the log-transformed baseline count in standard NB regression compared to CNB for moderate to larger sized datasets. © 2017 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  14. Daily precipitation statistics in regional climate models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frei, Christoph; Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg; Déqué, Michel

    2003-01-01

    An evaluation is undertaken of the statistics of daily precipitation as simulated by five regional climate models using comprehensive observations in the region of the European Alps. Four limited area models and one variable-resolution global model are considered, all with a grid spacing of 50 km...

  15. Infinite Random Graphs as Statistical Mechanical Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Durhuus, Bergfinnur Jøgvan; Napolitano, George Maria

    2011-01-01

    We discuss two examples of infinite random graphs obtained as limits of finite statistical mechanical systems: a model of two-dimensional dis-cretized quantum gravity defined in terms of causal triangulated surfaces, and the Ising model on generic random trees. For the former model we describe a ...

  16. Matrix Tricks for Linear Statistical Models

    CERN Document Server

    Puntanen, Simo; Styan, George PH

    2011-01-01

    In teaching linear statistical models to first-year graduate students or to final-year undergraduate students there is no way to proceed smoothly without matrices and related concepts of linear algebra; their use is really essential. Our experience is that making some particular matrix tricks very familiar to students can substantially increase their insight into linear statistical models (and also multivariate statistical analysis). In matrix algebra, there are handy, sometimes even very simple "tricks" which simplify and clarify the treatment of a problem - both for the student and

  17. Correcting the Count: Improving Vital Statistics Data Regarding Deaths Related to Obesity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCleskey, Brandi C; Davis, Gregory G; Dye, Daniel W

    2017-11-15

    Obesity can involve any organ system and compromise the overall health of an individual, including premature death. Despite the increased risk of death associated with being obese, obesity itself is infrequently indicated on the death certificate. We performed an audit of our records to identify how often "obesity" was listed on the death certificate to determine how our practices affected national mortality data collection regarding obesity-related mortality. During the span of nearly 25 years, 0.2% of deaths were attributed to or contributed by obesity. Over the course of 5 years, 96% of selected natural deaths were likely underreported as being associated with obesity. We present an algorithm for certifiers to use to determine whether obesity should be listed on the death certificate and guidelines for certifying cases in which this is appropriate. Use of this algorithm will improve vital statistics concerning the role of obesity in causing or contributing to death. © 2017 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

  18. Statistical physics of pairwise probability models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Roudi, Yasser; Aurell, Erik; Hertz, John

    2009-01-01

    (dansk abstrakt findes ikke) Statistical models for describing the probability distribution over the states of biological systems are commonly used for dimensional reduction. Among these models, pairwise models are very attractive in part because they can be fit using a reasonable amount of  data......: knowledge of the means and correlations between pairs of elements in the system is sufficient. Not surprisingly, then, using pairwise models for studying neural data has been the focus of many studies in recent years. In this paper, we describe how tools from statistical physics can be employed for studying...

  19. Distributions with given marginals and statistical modelling

    CERN Document Server

    Fortiana, Josep; Rodriguez-Lallena, José

    2002-01-01

    This book contains a selection of the papers presented at the meeting `Distributions with given marginals and statistical modelling', held in Barcelona (Spain), July 17-20, 2000. In 24 chapters, this book covers topics such as the theory of copulas and quasi-copulas, the theory and compatibility of distributions, models for survival distributions and other well-known distributions, time series, categorical models, definition and estimation of measures of dependence, monotonicity and stochastic ordering, shape and separability of distributions, hidden truncation models, diagonal families, orthogonal expansions, tests of independence, and goodness of fit assessment. These topics share the use and properties of distributions with given marginals, this being the fourth specialised text on this theme. The innovative aspect of the book is the inclusion of statistical aspects such as modelling, Bayesian statistics, estimation, and tests.

  20. Aspects of statistical model for multifragmentation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bhattacharyya, P.; Das Gupta, S.; Mekjian, A. Z.

    1999-01-01

    We deal with two different aspects of an exactly soluble statistical model of fragmentation. First we show, using zero range force and finite temperature Thomas-Fermi theory, that a common link can be found between finite temperature mean field theory and the statistical fragmentation model. We show the latter naturally arises in the spinodal region. Next we show that although the exact statistical model is a canonical model and uses temperature, microcanonical results which use constant energy rather than constant temperature can also be obtained from the canonical model using saddle-point approximation. The methodology is extremely simple to implement and at least in all the examples studied in this work is very accurate. (c) 1999 The American Physical Society

  1. Statistical Compression for Climate Model Output

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hammerling, D.; Guinness, J.; Soh, Y. J.

    2017-12-01

    Numerical climate model simulations run at high spatial and temporal resolutions generate massive quantities of data. As our computing capabilities continue to increase, storing all of the data is not sustainable, and thus is it important to develop methods for representing the full datasets by smaller compressed versions. We propose a statistical compression and decompression algorithm based on storing a set of summary statistics as well as a statistical model describing the conditional distribution of the full dataset given the summary statistics. We decompress the data by computing conditional expectations and conditional simulations from the model given the summary statistics. Conditional expectations represent our best estimate of the original data but are subject to oversmoothing in space and time. Conditional simulations introduce realistic small-scale noise so that the decompressed fields are neither too smooth nor too rough compared with the original data. Considerable attention is paid to accurately modeling the original dataset-one year of daily mean temperature data-particularly with regard to the inherent spatial nonstationarity in global fields, and to determining the statistics to be stored, so that the variation in the original data can be closely captured, while allowing for fast decompression and conditional emulation on modest computers.

  2. Performance modeling, loss networks, and statistical multiplexing

    CERN Document Server

    Mazumdar, Ravi

    2009-01-01

    This monograph presents a concise mathematical approach for modeling and analyzing the performance of communication networks with the aim of understanding the phenomenon of statistical multiplexing. The novelty of the monograph is the fresh approach and insights provided by a sample-path methodology for queueing models that highlights the important ideas of Palm distributions associated with traffic models and their role in performance measures. Also presented are recent ideas of large buffer, and many sources asymptotics that play an important role in understanding statistical multiplexing. I

  3. Simple statistical model for branched aggregates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lemarchand, Claire; Hansen, Jesper Schmidt

    2015-01-01

    , given that it already has bonds with others. The model is applied here to asphaltene nanoaggregates observed in molecular dynamics simulations of Cooee bitumen. The variation with temperature of the probabilities deduced from this model is discussed in terms of statistical mechanics arguments....... The relevance of the statistical model in the case of asphaltene nanoaggregates is checked by comparing the predicted value of the probability for one molecule to have exactly i bonds with the same probability directly measured in the molecular dynamics simulations. The agreement is satisfactory......We propose a statistical model that can reproduce the size distribution of any branched aggregate, including amylopectin, dendrimers, molecular clusters of monoalcohols, and asphaltene nanoaggregates. It is based on the conditional probability for one molecule to form a new bond with a molecule...

  4. Advances in statistical models for data analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Minerva, Tommaso; Vichi, Maurizio

    2015-01-01

    This edited volume focuses on recent research results in classification, multivariate statistics and machine learning and highlights advances in statistical models for data analysis. The volume provides both methodological developments and contributions to a wide range of application areas such as economics, marketing, education, social sciences and environment. The papers in this volume were first presented at the 9th biannual meeting of the Classification and Data Analysis Group (CLADAG) of the Italian Statistical Society, held in September 2013 at the University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, Italy.

  5. Structured statistical models of inductive reasoning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kemp, Charles; Tenenbaum, Joshua B

    2009-01-01

    Everyday inductive inferences are often guided by rich background knowledge. Formal models of induction should aim to incorporate this knowledge and should explain how different kinds of knowledge lead to the distinctive patterns of reasoning found in different inductive contexts. This article presents a Bayesian framework that attempts to meet both goals and describes [corrected] 4 applications of the framework: a taxonomic model, a spatial model, a threshold model, and a causal model. Each model makes probabilistic inferences about the extensions of novel properties, but the priors for the 4 models are defined over different kinds of structures that capture different relationships between the categories in a domain. The framework therefore shows how statistical inference can operate over structured background knowledge, and the authors argue that this interaction between structure and statistics is critical for explaining the power and flexibility of human reasoning.

  6. Model for neural signaling leap statistics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chevrollier, Martine; Oria, Marcos

    2011-01-01

    We present a simple model for neural signaling leaps in the brain considering only the thermodynamic (Nernst) potential in neuron cells and brain temperature. We numerically simulated connections between arbitrarily localized neurons and analyzed the frequency distribution of the distances reached. We observed qualitative change between Normal statistics (with T 37.5 0 C, awaken regime) and Levy statistics (T = 35.5 0 C, sleeping period), characterized by rare events of long range connections.

  7. Statistical models based on conditional probability distributions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Narayanan, R.S.

    1991-10-01

    We present a formulation of statistical mechanics models based on conditional probability distribution rather than a Hamiltonian. We show that it is possible to realize critical phenomena through this procedure. Closely linked with this formulation is a Monte Carlo algorithm, in which a configuration generated is guaranteed to be statistically independent from any other configuration for all values of the parameters, in particular near the critical point. (orig.)

  8. Model for neural signaling leap statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chevrollier, Martine; Oriá, Marcos

    2011-03-01

    We present a simple model for neural signaling leaps in the brain considering only the thermodynamic (Nernst) potential in neuron cells and brain temperature. We numerically simulated connections between arbitrarily localized neurons and analyzed the frequency distribution of the distances reached. We observed qualitative change between Normal statistics (with T = 37.5°C, awaken regime) and Lévy statistics (T = 35.5°C, sleeping period), characterized by rare events of long range connections.

  9. Model for neural signaling leap statistics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chevrollier, Martine; Oria, Marcos, E-mail: oria@otica.ufpb.br [Laboratorio de Fisica Atomica e Lasers Departamento de Fisica, Universidade Federal da ParaIba Caixa Postal 5086 58051-900 Joao Pessoa, Paraiba (Brazil)

    2011-03-01

    We present a simple model for neural signaling leaps in the brain considering only the thermodynamic (Nernst) potential in neuron cells and brain temperature. We numerically simulated connections between arbitrarily localized neurons and analyzed the frequency distribution of the distances reached. We observed qualitative change between Normal statistics (with T 37.5{sup 0}C, awaken regime) and Levy statistics (T = 35.5{sup 0}C, sleeping period), characterized by rare events of long range connections.

  10. Bayesian dynamic modeling of time series of dengue disease case counts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martínez-Bello, Daniel Adyro; López-Quílez, Antonio; Torres-Prieto, Alexander

    2017-07-01

    The aim of this study is to model the association between weekly time series of dengue case counts and meteorological variables, in a high-incidence city of Colombia, applying Bayesian hierarchical dynamic generalized linear models over the period January 2008 to August 2015. Additionally, we evaluate the model's short-term performance for predicting dengue cases. The methodology shows dynamic Poisson log link models including constant or time-varying coefficients for the meteorological variables. Calendar effects were modeled using constant or first- or second-order random walk time-varying coefficients. The meteorological variables were modeled using constant coefficients and first-order random walk time-varying coefficients. We applied Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulations for parameter estimation, and deviance information criterion statistic (DIC) for model selection. We assessed the short-term predictive performance of the selected final model, at several time points within the study period using the mean absolute percentage error. The results showed the best model including first-order random walk time-varying coefficients for calendar trend and first-order random walk time-varying coefficients for the meteorological variables. Besides the computational challenges, interpreting the results implies a complete analysis of the time series of dengue with respect to the parameter estimates of the meteorological effects. We found small values of the mean absolute percentage errors at one or two weeks out-of-sample predictions for most prediction points, associated with low volatility periods in the dengue counts. We discuss the advantages and limitations of the dynamic Poisson models for studying the association between time series of dengue disease and meteorological variables. The key conclusion of the study is that dynamic Poisson models account for the dynamic nature of the variables involved in the modeling of time series of dengue disease, producing useful

  11. Growth curve models and statistical diagnostics

    CERN Document Server

    Pan, Jian-Xin

    2002-01-01

    Growth-curve models are generalized multivariate analysis-of-variance models. These models are especially useful for investigating growth problems on short times in economics, biology, medical research, and epidemiology. This book systematically introduces the theory of the GCM with particular emphasis on their multivariate statistical diagnostics, which are based mainly on recent developments made by the authors and their collaborators. The authors provide complete proofs of theorems as well as practical data sets and MATLAB code.

  12. Topology for Statistical Modeling of Petascale Data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pascucci, Valerio [Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT (United States); Levine, Joshua [Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT (United States); Gyulassy, Attila [Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT (United States); Bremer, P. -T. [Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT (United States)

    2013-10-31

    Many commonly used algorithms for mathematical analysis do not scale well enough to accommodate the size or complexity of petascale data produced by computational simulations. The primary goal of this project is to develop new mathematical tools that address both the petascale size and uncertain nature of current data. At a high level, the approach of the entire team involving all three institutions is based on the complementary techniques of combinatorial topology and statistical modelling. In particular, we use combinatorial topology to filter out spurious data that would otherwise skew statistical modelling techniques, and we employ advanced algorithms from algebraic statistics to efficiently find globally optimal fits to statistical models. The overall technical contributions can be divided loosely into three categories: (1) advances in the field of combinatorial topology, (2) advances in statistical modelling, and (3) new integrated topological and statistical methods. Roughly speaking, the division of labor between our 3 groups (Sandia Labs in Livermore, Texas A&M in College Station, and U Utah in Salt Lake City) is as follows: the Sandia group focuses on statistical methods and their formulation in algebraic terms, and finds the application problems (and data sets) most relevant to this project, the Texas A&M Group develops new algebraic geometry algorithms, in particular with fewnomial theory, and the Utah group develops new algorithms in computational topology via Discrete Morse Theory. However, we hasten to point out that our three groups stay in tight contact via videconference every 2 weeks, so there is much synergy of ideas between the groups. The following of this document is focused on the contributions that had grater direct involvement from the team at the University of Utah in Salt Lake City.

  13. Bayesian models a statistical primer for ecologists

    CERN Document Server

    Hobbs, N Thompson

    2015-01-01

    Bayesian modeling has become an indispensable tool for ecological research because it is uniquely suited to deal with complexity in a statistically coherent way. This textbook provides a comprehensive and accessible introduction to the latest Bayesian methods-in language ecologists can understand. Unlike other books on the subject, this one emphasizes the principles behind the computations, giving ecologists a big-picture understanding of how to implement this powerful statistical approach. Bayesian Models is an essential primer for non-statisticians. It begins with a definition of probabili

  14. Central Limit Theorem for Exponentially Quasi-local Statistics of Spin Models on Cayley Graphs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reddy, Tulasi Ram; Vadlamani, Sreekar; Yogeshwaran, D.

    2018-04-01

    Central limit theorems for linear statistics of lattice random fields (including spin models) are usually proven under suitable mixing conditions or quasi-associativity. Many interesting examples of spin models do not satisfy mixing conditions, and on the other hand, it does not seem easy to show central limit theorem for local statistics via quasi-associativity. In this work, we prove general central limit theorems for local statistics and exponentially quasi-local statistics of spin models on discrete Cayley graphs with polynomial growth. Further, we supplement these results by proving similar central limit theorems for random fields on discrete Cayley graphs taking values in a countable space, but under the stronger assumptions of α -mixing (for local statistics) and exponential α -mixing (for exponentially quasi-local statistics). All our central limit theorems assume a suitable variance lower bound like many others in the literature. We illustrate our general central limit theorem with specific examples of lattice spin models and statistics arising in computational topology, statistical physics and random networks. Examples of clustering spin models include quasi-associated spin models with fast decaying covariances like the off-critical Ising model, level sets of Gaussian random fields with fast decaying covariances like the massive Gaussian free field and determinantal point processes with fast decaying kernels. Examples of local statistics include intrinsic volumes, face counts, component counts of random cubical complexes while exponentially quasi-local statistics include nearest neighbour distances in spin models and Betti numbers of sub-critical random cubical complexes.

  15. Simulation on Poisson and negative binomial models of count road accident modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sapuan, M. S.; Razali, A. M.; Zamzuri, Z. H.; Ibrahim, K.

    2016-11-01

    Accident count data have often been shown to have overdispersion. On the other hand, the data might contain zero count (excess zeros). The simulation study was conducted to create a scenarios which an accident happen in T-junction with the assumption the dependent variables of generated data follows certain distribution namely Poisson and negative binomial distribution with different sample size of n=30 to n=500. The study objective was accomplished by fitting Poisson regression, negative binomial regression and Hurdle negative binomial model to the simulated data. The model validation was compared and the simulation result shows for each different sample size, not all model fit the data nicely even though the data generated from its own distribution especially when the sample size is larger. Furthermore, the larger sample size indicates that more zeros accident count in the dataset.

  16. Statistical transmutation in doped quantum dimer models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamas, C A; Ralko, A; Cabra, D C; Poilblanc, D; Pujol, P

    2012-07-06

    We prove a "statistical transmutation" symmetry of doped quantum dimer models on the square, triangular, and kagome lattices: the energy spectrum is invariant under a simultaneous change of statistics (i.e., bosonic into fermionic or vice versa) of the holes and of the signs of all the dimer resonance loops. This exact transformation enables us to define the duality equivalence between doped quantum dimer Hamiltonians and provides the analytic framework to analyze dynamical statistical transmutations. We investigate numerically the doping of the triangular quantum dimer model with special focus on the topological Z(2) dimer liquid. Doping leads to four (instead of two for the square lattice) inequivalent families of Hamiltonians. Competition between phase separation, superfluidity, supersolidity, and fermionic phases is investigated in the four families.

  17. STATISTICAL MODELS OF REPRESENTING INTELLECTUAL CAPITAL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreea Feraru

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available This article entitled Statistical Models of Representing Intellectual Capital approaches and analyses the concept of intellectual capital, as well as the main models which can support enterprisers/managers in evaluating and quantifying the advantages of intellectual capital. Most authors examine intellectual capital from a static perspective and focus on the development of its various evaluation models. In this chapter we surveyed the classical static models: Sveiby, Edvisson, Balanced Scorecard, as well as the canonical model of intellectual capital. Among the group of static models for evaluating organisational intellectual capital the canonical model stands out. This model enables the structuring of organisational intellectual capital in: human capital, structural capital and relational capital. Although the model is widely spread, it is a static one and can thus create a series of errors in the process of evaluation, because all the three entities mentioned above are not independent from the viewpoint of their contents, as any logic of structuring complex entities requires.

  18. (ajst) statistical mechanics model for orientational

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Science and Engineering Series Vol. 6, No. 2, pp. 94 - 101. STATISTICAL MECHANICS MODEL FOR ORIENTATIONAL. MOTION OF TWO-DIMENSIONAL RIGID ROTATOR. Malo, J.O. ... there is no translational motion and that they are well separated so .... constant and I is the moment of inertia of a linear rotator. Thus, the ...

  19. Statistical Model Checking for Biological Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    David, Alexandre; Larsen, Kim Guldstrand; Legay, Axel

    2014-01-01

    Statistical Model Checking (SMC) is a highly scalable simulation-based verification approach for testing and estimating the probability that a stochastic system satisfies a given linear temporal property. The technique has been applied to (discrete and continuous time) Markov chains, stochastic...

  20. Topology for Statistical Modeling of Petascale Data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bennett, Janine Camille [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States); Pebay, Philippe Pierre [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States); Pascucci, Valerio [Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT (United States); Levine, Joshua [Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT (United States); Gyulassy, Attila [Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT (United States); Rojas, Maurice [Texas A & M Univ., College Station, TX (United States)

    2014-07-01

    This document presents current technical progress and dissemination of results for the Mathematics for Analysis of Petascale Data (MAPD) project titled "Topology for Statistical Modeling of Petascale Data", funded by the Office of Science Advanced Scientific Computing Research (ASCR) Applied Math program.

  1. Establishing statistical models of manufacturing parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Senevat, J.; Pape, J.L.; Deshayes, J.F.

    1991-01-01

    This paper reports on the effect of pilgering and cold-work parameters on contractile strain ratio and mechanical properties that were investigated using a large population of Zircaloy tubes. Statistical models were established between: contractile strain ratio and tooling parameters, mechanical properties (tensile test, creep test) and cold-work parameters, and mechanical properties and stress-relieving temperature

  2. Statistical models for optimizing mineral exploration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wignall, T.K.; DeGeoffroy, J.

    1987-01-01

    The primary purpose of mineral exploration is to discover ore deposits. The emphasis of this volume is on the mathematical and computational aspects of optimizing mineral exploration. The seven chapters that make up the main body of the book are devoted to the description and application of various types of computerized geomathematical models. These chapters include: (1) the optimal selection of ore deposit types and regions of search, as well as prospecting selected areas, (2) designing airborne and ground field programs for the optimal coverage of prospecting areas, and (3) delineating and evaluating exploration targets within prospecting areas by means of statistical modeling. Many of these statistical programs are innovative and are designed to be useful for mineral exploration modeling. Examples of geomathematical models are applied to exploring for six main types of base and precious metal deposits, as well as other mineral resources (such as bauxite and uranium)

  3. A statistical model for mapping morphological shape

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li Jiahan

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Living things come in all shapes and sizes, from bacteria, plants, and animals to humans. Knowledge about the genetic mechanisms for biological shape has far-reaching implications for a range spectrum of scientific disciplines including anthropology, agriculture, developmental biology, evolution and biomedicine. Results We derived a statistical model for mapping specific genes or quantitative trait loci (QTLs that control morphological shape. The model was formulated within the mixture framework, in which different types of shape are thought to result from genotypic discrepancies at a QTL. The EM algorithm was implemented to estimate QTL genotype-specific shapes based on a shape correspondence analysis. Computer simulation was used to investigate the statistical property of the model. Conclusion By identifying specific QTLs for morphological shape, the model developed will help to ask, disseminate and address many major integrative biological and genetic questions and challenges in the genetic control of biological shape and function.

  4. Performance modeling, stochastic networks, and statistical multiplexing

    CERN Document Server

    Mazumdar, Ravi R

    2013-01-01

    This monograph presents a concise mathematical approach for modeling and analyzing the performance of communication networks with the aim of introducing an appropriate mathematical framework for modeling and analysis as well as understanding the phenomenon of statistical multiplexing. The models, techniques, and results presented form the core of traffic engineering methods used to design, control and allocate resources in communication networks.The novelty of the monograph is the fresh approach and insights provided by a sample-path methodology for queueing models that highlights the importan

  5. Statistical models for competing risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sather, H.N.

    1976-08-01

    Research results on three new models for potential applications in competing risks problems. One section covers the basic statistical relationships underlying the subsequent competing risks model development. Another discusses the problem of comparing cause-specific risk structure by competing risks theory in two homogeneous populations, P1 and P2. Weibull models which allow more generality than the Berkson and Elveback models are studied for the effect of time on the hazard function. The use of concomitant information for modeling single-risk survival is extended to the multiple failure mode domain of competing risks. The model used to illustrate the use of this methodology is a life table model which has constant hazards within pre-designated intervals of the time scale. Two parametric models for bivariate dependent competing risks, which provide interesting alternatives, are proposed and examined

  6. Statistical physics of pairwise probability models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yasser Roudi

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available Statistical models for describing the probability distribution over the states of biological systems are commonly used for dimensional reduction. Among these models, pairwise models are very attractive in part because they can be fit using a reasonable amount of data: knowledge of the means and correlations between pairs of elements in the system is sufficient. Not surprisingly, then, using pairwise models for studying neural data has been the focus of many studies in recent years. In this paper, we describe how tools from statistical physics can be employed for studying and using pairwise models. We build on our previous work on the subject and study the relation between different methods for fitting these models and evaluating their quality. In particular, using data from simulated cortical networks we study how the quality of various approximate methods for inferring the parameters in a pairwise model depends on the time bin chosen for binning the data. We also study the effect of the size of the time bin on the model quality itself, again using simulated data. We show that using finer time bins increases the quality of the pairwise model. We offer new ways of deriving the expressions reported in our previous work for assessing the quality of pairwise models.

  7. Spatio-energetic cross talk in photon counting detectors: Detector model and correlated Poisson data generator.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taguchi, Katsuyuki; Polster, Christoph; Lee, Okkyun; Stierstorfer, Karl; Kappler, Steffen

    2016-12-01

    An x-ray photon interacts with photon counting detectors (PCDs) and generates an electron charge cloud or multiple clouds. The clouds (thus, the photon energy) may be split between two adjacent PCD pixels when the interaction occurs near pixel boundaries, producing a count at both of the pixels. This is called double-counting with charge sharing. (A photoelectric effect with K-shell fluorescence x-ray emission would result in double-counting as well). As a result, PCD data are spatially and energetically correlated, although the output of individual PCD pixels is Poisson distributed. Major problems include the lack of a detector noise model for the spatio-energetic cross talk and lack of a computationally efficient simulation tool for generating correlated Poisson data. A Monte Carlo (MC) simulation can accurately simulate these phenomena and produce noisy data; however, it is not computationally efficient. In this study, the authors developed a new detector model and implemented it in an efficient software simulator that uses a Poisson random number generator to produce correlated noisy integer counts. The detector model takes the following effects into account: (1) detection efficiency; (2) incomplete charge collection and ballistic effect; (3) interaction with PCDs via photoelectric effect (with or without K-shell fluorescence x-ray emission, which may escape from the PCDs or be reabsorbed); and (4) electronic noise. The correlation was modeled by using these two simplifying assumptions: energy conservation and mutual exclusiveness. The mutual exclusiveness is that no more than two pixels measure energy from one photon. The effect of model parameters has been studied and results were compared with MC simulations. The agreement, with respect to the spectrum, was evaluated using the reduced χ 2 statistics or a weighted sum of squared errors, χ red 2 (≥1), where χ red 2 =1 indicates a perfect fit. The model produced spectra with flat field irradiation that

  8. A UNIFIED EMPIRICAL MODEL FOR INFRARED GALAXY COUNTS BASED ON THE OBSERVED PHYSICAL EVOLUTION OF DISTANT GALAXIES

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Béthermin, Matthieu; Daddi, Emanuele; Sargent, Mark T.; Elbaz, David; Mullaney, James; Pannella, Maurilio; Magdis, Georgios; Hezaveh, Yashar; Le Borgne, Damien; Buat, Véronique; Charmandaris, Vassilis; Lagache, Guilaine; Scott, Douglas

    2012-01-01

    We reproduce the mid-infrared to radio galaxy counts with a new empirical model based on our current understanding of the evolution of main-sequence (MS) and starburst (SB) galaxies. We rely on a simple spectral energy distribution (SED) library based on Herschel observations: a single SED for the MS and another one for SB, getting warmer with redshift. Our model is able to reproduce recent measurements of galaxy counts performed with Herschel, including counts per redshift slice. This agreement demonstrates the power of our 2-Star-Formation Modes (2SFM) decomposition in describing the statistical properties of infrared sources and their evolution with cosmic time. We discuss the relative contribution of MS and SB galaxies to the number counts at various wavelengths and flux densities. We also show that MS galaxies are responsible for a bump in the 1.4 GHz radio counts around 50 μJy. Material of the model (predictions, SED library, mock catalogs, etc.) is available online.

  9. The Rasch Poisson counts model for incomplete data : An application of the EM algorithm

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jansen, G.G.H.

    Rasch's Poisson counts model is a latent trait model for the situation in which K tests are administered to N examinees and the test score is a count [e.g., the repeated occurrence of some event, such as the number of items completed or the number of items answered (in)correctly]. The Rasch Poisson

  10. Modelling T4 cell count as a marker of HIV progression in the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Modelling T4 cell count as a marker of HIV progression in the absence of any defense mechanism. VSM Yadavalli, MMO Labeodan, S Udayabaskaran, N Forche. Abstract. The T4 cell count, which is considered one of the markers of disease progression in an HIV infected individual, is modelled in this paper. The World ...

  11. Modelling a Java Ring based implementation of an N-Count payment system

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Revill, J.D.; Hartel, Pieter H.

    N-Count is a system for offline value transfer. A prototype of an N-Count payment system has been designed, and it has been implemented in Java. We have used the Java Ring with the Java Card API as a secure device. The system has also been modelled using the Spin model checker. The combined

  12. Statistical models of petrol engines vehicles dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ilie, C. O.; Marinescu, M.; Alexa, O.; Vilău, R.; Grosu, D.

    2017-10-01

    This paper focuses on studying statistical models of vehicles dynamics. It was design and perform a one year testing program. There were used many same type cars with gasoline engines and different mileage. Experimental data were collected of onboard sensors and those on the engine test stand. A database containing data of 64th tests was created. Several mathematical modelling were developed using database and the system identification method. Each modelling is a SISO or a MISO linear predictive ARMAX (AutoRegressive-Moving-Average with eXogenous inputs) model. It represents a differential equation with constant coefficients. It were made 64th equations for each dependency like engine torque as output and engine’s load and intake manifold pressure, as inputs. There were obtained strings with 64 values for each type of model. The final models were obtained using average values of the coefficients. The accuracy of models was assessed.

  13. Equilibrium statistical mechanics of lattice models

    CERN Document Server

    Lavis, David A

    2015-01-01

    Most interesting and difficult problems in equilibrium statistical mechanics concern models which exhibit phase transitions. For graduate students and more experienced researchers this book provides an invaluable reference source of approximate and exact solutions for a comprehensive range of such models. Part I contains background material on classical thermodynamics and statistical mechanics, together with a classification and survey of lattice models. The geometry of phase transitions is described and scaling theory is used to introduce critical exponents and scaling laws. An introduction is given to finite-size scaling, conformal invariance and Schramm—Loewner evolution. Part II contains accounts of classical mean-field methods. The parallels between Landau expansions and catastrophe theory are discussed and Ginzburg—Landau theory is introduced. The extension of mean-field theory to higher-orders is explored using the Kikuchi—Hijmans—De Boer hierarchy of approximations. In Part III the use of alge...

  14. Statistical shape and appearance models of bones.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarkalkan, Nazli; Weinans, Harrie; Zadpoor, Amir A

    2014-03-01

    When applied to bones, statistical shape models (SSM) and statistical appearance models (SAM) respectively describe the mean shape and mean density distribution of bones within a certain population as well as the main modes of variations of shape and density distribution from their mean values. The availability of this quantitative information regarding the detailed anatomy of bones provides new opportunities for diagnosis, evaluation, and treatment of skeletal diseases. The potential of SSM and SAM has been recently recognized within the bone research community. For example, these models have been applied for studying the effects of bone shape on the etiology of osteoarthritis, improving the accuracy of clinical osteoporotic fracture prediction techniques, design of orthopedic implants, and surgery planning. This paper reviews the main concepts, methods, and applications of SSM and SAM as applied to bone. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Statistical Models of Adaptive Immune populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sethna, Zachary; Callan, Curtis; Walczak, Aleksandra; Mora, Thierry

    The availability of large (104-106 sequences) datasets of B or T cell populations from a single individual allows reliable fitting of complex statistical models for naïve generation, somatic selection, and hypermutation. It is crucial to utilize a probabilistic/informational approach when modeling these populations. The inferred probability distributions allow for population characterization, calculation of probability distributions of various hidden variables (e.g. number of insertions), as well as statistical properties of the distribution itself (e.g. entropy). In particular, the differences between the T cell populations of embryonic and mature mice will be examined as a case study. Comparing these populations, as well as proposed mixed populations, provides a concrete exercise in model creation, comparison, choice, and validation.

  16. Cellular automata and statistical mechanical models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rujan, P.

    1987-01-01

    The authors elaborate on the analogy between the transfer matrix of usual lattice models and the master equation describing the time development of cellular automata. Transient and stationary properties of probabilistic automata are linked to surface and bulk properties, respectively, of restricted statistical mechanical systems. It is demonstrated that methods of statistical physics can be successfully used to describe the dynamic and the stationary behavior of such automata. Some exact results are derived, including duality transformations, exact mappings, disorder, and linear solutions. Many examples are worked out in detail to demonstrate how to use statistical physics in order to construct cellular automata with desired properties. This approach is considered to be a first step toward the design of fully parallel, probabilistic systems whose computational abilities rely on the cooperative behavior of their components

  17. Poisson statistics application in modelling of neutron detection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Avdic, S.; Marinkovic, P.

    1996-01-01

    The main purpose of this study is taking into account statistical analysis of the experimental data which were measured by 3 He neutron spectrometer. The unfolding method based on principle of maximum likelihood incorporates the Poisson approximation of counting statistics applied (aithor)

  18. Statistical Modelling of Wind Proles - Data Analysis and Modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jónsson, Tryggvi; Pinson, Pierre

    The aim of the analysis presented in this document is to investigate whether statistical models can be used to make very short-term predictions of wind profiles.......The aim of the analysis presented in this document is to investigate whether statistical models can be used to make very short-term predictions of wind profiles....

  19. Statistical modeling of geopressured geothermal reservoirs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ansari, Esmail; Hughes, Richard; White, Christopher D.

    2017-06-01

    Identifying attractive candidate reservoirs for producing geothermal energy requires predictive models. In this work, inspectional analysis and statistical modeling are used to create simple predictive models for a line drive design. Inspectional analysis on the partial differential equations governing this design yields a minimum number of fifteen dimensionless groups required to describe the physics of the system. These dimensionless groups are explained and confirmed using models with similar dimensionless groups but different dimensional parameters. This study models dimensionless production temperature and thermal recovery factor as the responses of a numerical model. These responses are obtained by a Box-Behnken experimental design. An uncertainty plot is used to segment the dimensionless time and develop a model for each segment. The important dimensionless numbers for each segment of the dimensionless time are identified using the Boosting method. These selected numbers are used in the regression models. The developed models are reduced to have a minimum number of predictors and interactions. The reduced final models are then presented and assessed using testing runs. Finally, applications of these models are offered. The presented workflow is generic and can be used to translate the output of a numerical simulator into simple predictive models in other research areas involving numerical simulation.

  20. A statistical model for instable thermodynamical systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sommer, Jens-Uwe

    2003-01-01

    A generic model is presented for statistical systems which display thermodynamic features in contrast to our everyday experience, such as infinite and negative heat capacities. Such system are instable in terms of classical equilibrium thermodynamics. Using our statistical model, we are able to investigate states of instable systems which are undefined in the framework of equilibrium thermodynamics. We show that a region of negative heat capacity in the adiabatic environment, leads to a first order like phase transition when the system is coupled to a heat reservoir. This phase transition takes place without a phase coexistence. Nevertheless, all intermediate states are stable due to fluctuations. When two instable system are brought in thermal contact, the temperature of the composed system is lower than the minimum temperature of the individual systems. Generally, the equilibrium states of instable system cannot be simply decomposed into equilibrium states of the individual systems. The properties of instable system depend on the environment, ensemble equivalence is broken

  1. Logarithmic transformed statistical models in calibration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zeis, C.D.

    1975-01-01

    A general type of statistical model used for calibration of instruments having the property that the standard deviations of the observed values increase as a function of the mean value is described. The application to the Helix Counter at the Rocky Flats Plant is primarily from a theoretical point of view. The Helix Counter measures the amount of plutonium in certain types of chemicals. The method described can be used also for other calibrations. (U.S.)

  2. ARSENIC CONTAMINATION IN GROUNDWATER: A STATISTICAL MODELING

    OpenAIRE

    Palas Roy; Naba Kumar Mondal; Biswajit Das; Kousik Das

    2013-01-01

    High arsenic in natural groundwater in most of the tubewells of the Purbasthali- Block II area of Burdwan district (W.B, India) has recently been focused as a serious environmental concern. This paper is intending to illustrate the statistical modeling of the arsenic contaminated groundwater to identify the interrelation of that arsenic contain with other participating groundwater parameters so that the arsenic contamination level can easily be predicted by analyzing only such parameters. Mul...

  3. Effect of finite Coulomb interaction on full counting statistics of electronic transport through single-molecule magnet

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xue Haibin, E-mail: xhb98326110@163.co [Institute of Theoretical Physics, Shanxi University, Taiyuan, Shanxi 030006 (China); Nie, Y.-H., E-mail: nieyh@sxu.edu.c [Institute of Theoretical Physics, Shanxi University, Taiyuan, Shanxi 030006 (China); Li, Z.-J.; Liang, J.-Q. [Institute of Theoretical Physics, Shanxi University, Taiyuan, Shanxi 030006 (China)

    2011-01-17

    We study the full counting statistics (FCS) in a single-molecule magnet (SMM) with finite Coulomb interaction U. For finite U the FCS, differing from U{yields}{infinity}, shows a symmetric gate-voltage-dependence when the coupling strengths with two electrodes are interchanged, which can be observed experimentally just by reversing the bias-voltage. Moreover, we find that the effect of finite U on shot noise depends on the internal level structure of the SMM and the coupling asymmetry of the SMM with two electrodes as well. When the coupling of the SMM with the incident-electrode is stronger than that with the outgoing-electrode, the super-Poissonian shot noise in the sequential tunneling regime appears under relatively small gate-voltage and relatively large finite U, and dose not for U{yields}{infinity}; while it occurs at relatively large gate-voltage for the opposite coupling case. The formation mechanism of super-Poissonian shot noise can be qualitatively attributed to the competition between fast and slow transport channels.

  4. Effect of finite Coulomb interaction on full counting statistics of electronic transport through single-molecule magnet

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xue Haibin; Nie, Y.-H.; Li, Z.-J.; Liang, J.-Q.

    2011-01-01

    We study the full counting statistics (FCS) in a single-molecule magnet (SMM) with finite Coulomb interaction U. For finite U the FCS, differing from U→∞, shows a symmetric gate-voltage-dependence when the coupling strengths with two electrodes are interchanged, which can be observed experimentally just by reversing the bias-voltage. Moreover, we find that the effect of finite U on shot noise depends on the internal level structure of the SMM and the coupling asymmetry of the SMM with two electrodes as well. When the coupling of the SMM with the incident-electrode is stronger than that with the outgoing-electrode, the super-Poissonian shot noise in the sequential tunneling regime appears under relatively small gate-voltage and relatively large finite U, and dose not for U→∞; while it occurs at relatively large gate-voltage for the opposite coupling case. The formation mechanism of super-Poissonian shot noise can be qualitatively attributed to the competition between fast and slow transport channels.

  5. EM Adaptive LASSO – A Multilocus Modeling Strategy for Detecting SNPs Associated With Zero-inflated Count Phenotypes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Himel eMallick

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Count data are increasingly ubiquitous in genetic association studies, where it is possible to observe excess zero counts as compared to what is expected based on standard assumptions. For instance, in rheumatology, data are usually collected in multiple joints within a person or multiple sub-regions of a joint, and it is not uncommon that the phenotypes contain enormous number of zeroes due to the presence of excessive zero counts in majority of patients. Most existing statistical methods assume that the count phenotypes follow one of these four distributions with appropriate dispersion-handling mechanisms: Poisson, Zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP, Negative Binomial, and Zero-inflated Negative Binomial (ZINB. However, little is known about their implications in genetic association studies. Also, there is a relative paucity of literature on their usefulness with respect to model misspecification and variable selection. In this article, we have investigated the performance of several state-of-the-art approaches for handling zero-inflated count data along with a novel penalized regression approach with an adaptive LASSO penalty, by simulating data under a variety of disease models and linkage disequilibrium patterns. By taking into account data-adaptive weights in the estimation procedure, the proposed method provides greater flexibility in multi-SNP modeling of zero-inflated count phenotypes. A fast coordinate descent algorithm nested within an EM (expectation-maximization algorithm is implemented for estimating the model parameters and conducting variable selection simultaneously. Results show that the proposed method has optimal performance in the presence of multicollinearity, as measured by both prediction accuracy and empirical power, which is especially apparent as the sample size increases. Moreover, the Type I error rates become more or less uncontrollable for the competing methods when a model is misspecified, a phenomenon routinely

  6. A simple statistical model for geomagnetic reversals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Constable, Catherine

    1990-01-01

    The diversity of paleomagnetic records of geomagnetic reversals now available indicate that the field configuration during transitions cannot be adequately described by simple zonal or standing field models. A new model described here is based on statistical properties inferred from the present field and is capable of simulating field transitions like those observed. Some insight is obtained into what one can hope to learn from paleomagnetic records. In particular, it is crucial that the effects of smoothing in the remanence acquisition process be separated from true geomagnetic field behavior. This might enable us to determine the time constants associated with the dominant field configuration during a reversal.

  7. Statistical Modelling of the Soil Dielectric Constant

    Science.gov (United States)

    Usowicz, Boguslaw; Marczewski, Wojciech; Bogdan Usowicz, Jerzy; Lipiec, Jerzy

    2010-05-01

    The dielectric constant of soil is the physical property being very sensitive on water content. It funds several electrical measurement techniques for determining the water content by means of direct (TDR, FDR, and others related to effects of electrical conductance and/or capacitance) and indirect RS (Remote Sensing) methods. The work is devoted to a particular statistical manner of modelling the dielectric constant as the property accounting a wide range of specific soil composition, porosity, and mass density, within the unsaturated water content. Usually, similar models are determined for few particular soil types, and changing the soil type one needs switching the model on another type or to adjust it by parametrization of soil compounds. Therefore, it is difficult comparing and referring results between models. The presented model was developed for a generic representation of soil being a hypothetical mixture of spheres, each representing a soil fraction, in its proper phase state. The model generates a serial-parallel mesh of conductive and capacitive paths, which is analysed for a total conductive or capacitive property. The model was firstly developed to determine the thermal conductivity property, and now it is extended on the dielectric constant by analysing the capacitive mesh. The analysis is provided by statistical means obeying physical laws related to the serial-parallel branching of the representative electrical mesh. Physical relevance of the analysis is established electrically, but the definition of the electrical mesh is controlled statistically by parametrization of compound fractions, by determining the number of representative spheres per unitary volume per fraction, and by determining the number of fractions. That way the model is capable covering properties of nearly all possible soil types, all phase states within recognition of the Lorenz and Knudsen conditions. In effect the model allows on generating a hypothetical representative of

  8. Encoding Dissimilarity Data for Statistical Model Building.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wahba, Grace

    2010-12-01

    We summarize, review and comment upon three papers which discuss the use of discrete, noisy, incomplete, scattered pairwise dissimilarity data in statistical model building. Convex cone optimization codes are used to embed the objects into a Euclidean space which respects the dissimilarity information while controlling the dimension of the space. A "newbie" algorithm is provided for embedding new objects into this space. This allows the dissimilarity information to be incorporated into a Smoothing Spline ANOVA penalized likelihood model, a Support Vector Machine, or any model that will admit Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space components, for nonparametric regression, supervised learning, or semi-supervised learning. Future work and open questions are discussed. The papers are: F. Lu, S. Keles, S. Wright and G. Wahba 2005. A framework for kernel regularization with application to protein clustering. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 102, 12332-1233.G. Corrada Bravo, G. Wahba, K. Lee, B. Klein, R. Klein and S. Iyengar 2009. Examining the relative influence of familial, genetic and environmental covariate information in flexible risk models. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 106, 8128-8133F. Lu, Y. Lin and G. Wahba. Robust manifold unfolding with kernel regularization. TR 1008, Department of Statistics, University of Wisconsin-Madison.

  9. ARSENIC CONTAMINATION IN GROUNDWATER: A STATISTICAL MODELING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Palas Roy

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available High arsenic in natural groundwater in most of the tubewells of the Purbasthali- Block II area of Burdwan district (W.B, India has recently been focused as a serious environmental concern. This paper is intending to illustrate the statistical modeling of the arsenic contaminated groundwater to identify the interrelation of that arsenic contain with other participating groundwater parameters so that the arsenic contamination level can easily be predicted by analyzing only such parameters. Multivariate data analysis was done with the collected groundwater samples from the 132 tubewells of this contaminated region shows that three variable parameters are significantly related with the arsenic. Based on these relationships, a multiple linear regression model has been developed that estimated the arsenic contamination by measuring such three predictor parameters of the groundwater variables in the contaminated aquifer. This model could also be a suggestive tool while designing the arsenic removal scheme for any affected groundwater.

  10. Parameter estimation and statistical test of geographically weighted bivariate Poisson inverse Gaussian regression models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amalia, Junita; Purhadi, Otok, Bambang Widjanarko

    2017-11-01

    Poisson distribution is a discrete distribution with count data as the random variables and it has one parameter defines both mean and variance. Poisson regression assumes mean and variance should be same (equidispersion). Nonetheless, some case of the count data unsatisfied this assumption because variance exceeds mean (over-dispersion). The ignorance of over-dispersion causes underestimates in standard error. Furthermore, it causes incorrect decision in the statistical test. Previously, paired count data has a correlation and it has bivariate Poisson distribution. If there is over-dispersion, modeling paired count data is not sufficient with simple bivariate Poisson regression. Bivariate Poisson Inverse Gaussian Regression (BPIGR) model is mix Poisson regression for modeling paired count data within over-dispersion. BPIGR model produces a global model for all locations. In another hand, each location has different geographic conditions, social, cultural and economic so that Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) is needed. The weighting function of each location in GWR generates a different local model. Geographically Weighted Bivariate Poisson Inverse Gaussian Regression (GWBPIGR) model is used to solve over-dispersion and to generate local models. Parameter estimation of GWBPIGR model obtained by Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) method. Meanwhile, hypothesis testing of GWBPIGR model acquired by Maximum Likelihood Ratio Test (MLRT) method.

  11. The power of statistical tests using field trial count data of non-target organisms in enviromental risk assessment of genetically modified plants

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Voet, van der H.; Goedhart, P.W.

    2015-01-01

    Publications on power analyses for field trial count data comparing transgenic and conventional crops have reported widely varying requirements for the replication needed to obtain statistical tests with adequate power. These studies are critically reviewed and complemented with a new simulation

  12. Optimizing refiner operation with statistical modelling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Broderick, G [Noranda Research Centre, Pointe Claire, PQ (Canada)

    1997-02-01

    The impact of refining conditions on the energy efficiency of the process and on the handsheet quality of a chemi-mechanical pulp was studied as part of a series of pilot scale refining trials. Statistical models of refiner performance were constructed from these results and non-linear optimization of process conditions were conducted. Optimization results indicated that increasing the ratio of specific energy applied in the first stage led to a reduction of some 15 per cent in the total energy requirement. The strategy can also be used to obtain significant increases in pulp quality for a given energy input. 20 refs., 6 tabs.

  13. Average Nuclear properties based on statistical model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    El-Jaick, L.J.

    1974-01-01

    The rough properties of nuclei were investigated by statistical model, in systems with the same and different number of protons and neutrons, separately, considering the Coulomb energy in the last system. Some average nuclear properties were calculated based on the energy density of nuclear matter, from Weizsscker-Beth mass semiempiric formulae, generalized for compressible nuclei. In the study of a s surface energy coefficient, the great influence exercised by Coulomb energy and nuclear compressibility was verified. For a good adjust of beta stability lines and mass excess, the surface symmetry energy were established. (M.C.K.) [pt

  14. Statistical pairwise interaction model of stock market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bury, Thomas

    2013-03-01

    Financial markets are a classical example of complex systems as they are compound by many interacting stocks. As such, we can obtain a surprisingly good description of their structure by making the rough simplification of binary daily returns. Spin glass models have been applied and gave some valuable results but at the price of restrictive assumptions on the market dynamics or they are agent-based models with rules designed in order to recover some empirical behaviors. Here we show that the pairwise model is actually a statistically consistent model with the observed first and second moments of the stocks orientation without making such restrictive assumptions. This is done with an approach only based on empirical data of price returns. Our data analysis of six major indices suggests that the actual interaction structure may be thought as an Ising model on a complex network with interaction strengths scaling as the inverse of the system size. This has potentially important implications since many properties of such a model are already known and some techniques of the spin glass theory can be straightforwardly applied. Typical behaviors, as multiple equilibria or metastable states, different characteristic time scales, spatial patterns, order-disorder, could find an explanation in this picture.

  15. Statistical modeling to support power system planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Staid, Andrea

    This dissertation focuses on data-analytic approaches that improve our understanding of power system applications to promote better decision-making. It tackles issues of risk analysis, uncertainty management, resource estimation, and the impacts of climate change. Tools of data mining and statistical modeling are used to bring new insight to a variety of complex problems facing today's power system. The overarching goal of this research is to improve the understanding of the power system risk environment for improved operation, investment, and planning decisions. The first chapter introduces some challenges faced in planning for a sustainable power system. Chapter 2 analyzes the driving factors behind the disparity in wind energy investments among states with a goal of determining the impact that state-level policies have on incentivizing wind energy. Findings show that policy differences do not explain the disparities; physical and geographical factors are more important. Chapter 3 extends conventional wind forecasting to a risk-based focus of predicting maximum wind speeds, which are dangerous for offshore operations. Statistical models are presented that issue probabilistic predictions for the highest wind speed expected in a three-hour interval. These models achieve a high degree of accuracy and their use can improve safety and reliability in practice. Chapter 4 examines the challenges of wind power estimation for onshore wind farms. Several methods for wind power resource assessment are compared, and the weaknesses of the Jensen model are demonstrated. For two onshore farms, statistical models outperform other methods, even when very little information is known about the wind farm. Lastly, chapter 5 focuses on the power system more broadly in the context of the risks expected from tropical cyclones in a changing climate. Risks to U.S. power system infrastructure are simulated under different scenarios of tropical cyclone behavior that may result from climate

  16. Acceleration transforms and statistical kinetic models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    LuValle, M.J.; Welsher, T.L.; Svoboda, K.

    1988-01-01

    For a restricted class of problems a mathematical model of microscopic degradation processes, statistical kinetics, is developed and linked through acceleration transforms to the information which can be obtained from a system in which the only observable sign of degradation is sudden and catastrophic failure. The acceleration transforms were developed in accelerated life testing applications as a tool for extrapolating from the observable results of an accelerated life test to the dynamics of the underlying degradation processes. A particular concern of a physicist attempting to interpreted the results of an analysis based on acceleration transforms is determining the physical species involved in the degradation process. These species may be (a) relatively abundant or (b) relatively rare. The main results of this paper are a theorem showing that for an important subclass of statistical kinetic models, acceleration transforms cannot be used to distinguish between cases a and b, and an example showing that in some cases falling outside the restrictions of the theorem, cases a and b can be distinguished by their acceleration transforms

  17. voom: Precision weights unlock linear model analysis tools for RNA-seq read counts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Law, Charity W; Chen, Yunshun; Shi, Wei; Smyth, Gordon K

    2014-02-03

    New normal linear modeling strategies are presented for analyzing read counts from RNA-seq experiments. The voom method estimates the mean-variance relationship of the log-counts, generates a precision weight for each observation and enters these into the limma empirical Bayes analysis pipeline. This opens access for RNA-seq analysts to a large body of methodology developed for microarrays. Simulation studies show that voom performs as well or better than count-based RNA-seq methods even when the data are generated according to the assumptions of the earlier methods. Two case studies illustrate the use of linear modeling and gene set testing methods.

  18. Atmospheric corrosion: statistical validation of models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Diaz, V.; Martinez-Luaces, V.; Guineo-Cobs, G.

    2003-01-01

    In this paper we discuss two different methods for validation of regression models, applied to corrosion data. One of them is based on the correlation coefficient and the other one is the statistical test of lack of fit. Both methods are used here to analyse fitting of bi logarithmic model in order to predict corrosion for very low carbon steel substrates in rural and urban-industrial atmospheres in Uruguay. Results for parameters A and n of the bi logarithmic model are reported here. For this purpose, all repeated values were used instead of using average values as usual. Modelling is carried out using experimental data corresponding to steel substrates under the same initial meteorological conditions ( in fact, they are put in the rack at the same time). Results of correlation coefficient are compared with the lack of it tested at two different signification levels (α=0.01 and α=0.05). Unexpected differences between them are explained and finally, it is possible to conclude, at least in the studied atmospheres, that the bi logarithmic model does not fit properly the experimental data. (Author) 18 refs

  19. Spherical Process Models for Global Spatial Statistics

    KAUST Repository

    Jeong, Jaehong

    2017-11-28

    Statistical models used in geophysical, environmental, and climate science applications must reflect the curvature of the spatial domain in global data. Over the past few decades, statisticians have developed covariance models that capture the spatial and temporal behavior of these global data sets. Though the geodesic distance is the most natural metric for measuring distance on the surface of a sphere, mathematical limitations have compelled statisticians to use the chordal distance to compute the covariance matrix in many applications instead, which may cause physically unrealistic distortions. Therefore, covariance functions directly defined on a sphere using the geodesic distance are needed. We discuss the issues that arise when dealing with spherical data sets on a global scale and provide references to recent literature. We review the current approaches to building process models on spheres, including the differential operator, the stochastic partial differential equation, the kernel convolution, and the deformation approaches. We illustrate realizations obtained from Gaussian processes with different covariance structures and the use of isotropic and nonstationary covariance models through deformations and geographical indicators for global surface temperature data. To assess the suitability of each method, we compare their log-likelihood values and prediction scores, and we end with a discussion of related research problems.

  20. A statistical mechanical model of economics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lubbers, Nicholas Edward Williams

    Statistical mechanics pursues low-dimensional descriptions of systems with a very large number of degrees of freedom. I explore this theme in two contexts. The main body of this dissertation explores and extends the Yard Sale Model (YSM) of economic transactions using a combination of simulations and theory. The YSM is a simple interacting model for wealth distributions which has the potential to explain the empirical observation of Pareto distributions of wealth. I develop the link between wealth condensation and the breakdown of ergodicity due to nonlinear diffusion effects which are analogous to the geometric random walk. Using this, I develop a deterministic effective theory of wealth transfer in the YSM that is useful for explaining many quantitative results. I introduce various forms of growth to the model, paying attention to the effect of growth on wealth condensation, inequality, and ergodicity. Arithmetic growth is found to partially break condensation, and geometric growth is found to completely break condensation. Further generalizations of geometric growth with growth in- equality show that the system is divided into two phases by a tipping point in the inequality parameter. The tipping point marks the line between systems which are ergodic and systems which exhibit wealth condensation. I explore generalizations of the YSM transaction scheme to arbitrary betting functions to develop notions of universality in YSM-like models. I find that wealth vi condensation is universal to a large class of models which can be divided into two phases. The first exhibits slow, power-law condensation dynamics, and the second exhibits fast, finite-time condensation dynamics. I find that the YSM, which exhibits exponential dynamics, is the critical, self-similar model which marks the dividing line between the two phases. The final chapter develops a low-dimensional approach to materials microstructure quantification. Modern materials design harnesses complex

  1. Current algebra, statistical mechanics and quantum models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vilela Mendes, R.

    2017-11-01

    Results obtained in the past for free boson systems at zero and nonzero temperatures are revisited to clarify the physical meaning of current algebra reducible functionals which are associated to systems with density fluctuations, leading to observable effects on phase transitions. To use current algebra as a tool for the formulation of quantum statistical mechanics amounts to the construction of unitary representations of diffeomorphism groups. Two mathematical equivalent procedures exist for this purpose. One searches for quasi-invariant measures on configuration spaces, the other for a cyclic vector in Hilbert space. Here, one argues that the second approach is closer to the physical intuition when modelling complex systems. An example of application of the current algebra methodology to the pairing phenomenon in two-dimensional fermion systems is discussed.

  2. Statistical model for OCT image denoising

    KAUST Repository

    Li, Muxingzi

    2017-08-01

    Optical coherence tomography (OCT) is a non-invasive technique with a large array of applications in clinical imaging and biological tissue visualization. However, the presence of speckle noise affects the analysis of OCT images and their diagnostic utility. In this article, we introduce a new OCT denoising algorithm. The proposed method is founded on a numerical optimization framework based on maximum-a-posteriori estimate of the noise-free OCT image. It combines a novel speckle noise model, derived from local statistics of empirical spectral domain OCT (SD-OCT) data, with a Huber variant of total variation regularization for edge preservation. The proposed approach exhibits satisfying results in terms of speckle noise reduction as well as edge preservation, at reduced computational cost.

  3. New advances in statistical modeling and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Santos, Rui; Oliveira, Maria; Paulino, Carlos

    2014-01-01

    This volume presents selected papers from the XIXth Congress of the Portuguese Statistical Society, held in the town of Nazaré, Portugal, from September 28 to October 1, 2011. All contributions were selected after a thorough peer-review process. It covers a broad range of papers in the areas of statistical science, probability and stochastic processes, extremes and statistical applications.

  4. Examining secular trend  and seasonality in count data using dynamic generalized linear modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lundbye-Christensen, Søren; Dethlefsen, Claus; Gorst-Rasmussen, Anders

    series regression model for Poisson counts. It differs in allowing the regression coefficients to vary gradually over time in a random fashion. Data  In the period January 1980 to 1999, 17,989 incidents of acute myocardial infarction were recorded in the county of Northern Jutland, Denmark. Records were......Aims  Time series of incidence counts often show secular trends and seasonal patterns. We present a model for incidence counts capable of handling a possible gradual change in growth rates and seasonal patterns, serial correlation and overdispersion. Methods  The model resembles an ordinary time...... updated daily. Results  The model with a seasonal pattern and an approximately linear trend was fitted to the data, and diagnostic plots indicate a good model fit. The analysis with the dynamic model revealed peaks coinciding with influenza epidemics. On average the peak-to-trough ratio is estimated...

  5. Spherical collapse and cluster counts in modified gravity models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martino, Matthew C.; Stabenau, Hans F.; Sheth, Ravi K.

    2009-01-01

    Modifications to the gravitational potential affect the nonlinear gravitational evolution of large scale structures in the Universe. To illustrate some generic features of such changes, we study the evolution of spherically symmetric perturbations when the modification is of Yukawa type; this is nontrivial, because we should not and do not assume that Birkhoff's theorem applies. We then show how to estimate the abundance of virialized objects in such models. Comparison with numerical simulations shows reasonable agreement: When normalized to have the same fluctuations at early times, weaker large scale gravity produces fewer massive halos. However, the opposite can be true for models that are normalized to have the same linear theory power spectrum today, so the abundance of rich clusters potentially places interesting constraints on such models. Our analysis also indicates that the formation histories and abundances of sufficiently low mass objects are unchanged from standard gravity. This explains why simulations have found that the nonlinear power spectrum at large k is unaffected by such modifications to the gravitational potential. In addition, the most massive objects in models with normalized cosmic microwave background and weaker gravity are expected to be similar to the high-redshift progenitors of the most massive objects in models with stronger gravity. Thus, the difference between the cluster and field galaxy populations is expected to be larger in models with stronger large scale gravity.

  6. A statistical model for predicting muscle performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byerly, Diane Leslie De Caix

    The objective of these studies was to develop a capability for predicting muscle performance and fatigue to be utilized for both space- and ground-based applications. To develop this predictive model, healthy test subjects performed a defined, repetitive dynamic exercise to failure using a Lordex spinal machine. Throughout the exercise, surface electromyography (SEMG) data were collected from the erector spinae using a Mega Electronics ME3000 muscle tester and surface electrodes placed on both sides of the back muscle. These data were analyzed using a 5th order Autoregressive (AR) model and statistical regression analysis. It was determined that an AR derived parameter, the mean average magnitude of AR poles, significantly correlated with the maximum number of repetitions (designated Rmax) that a test subject was able to perform. Using the mean average magnitude of AR poles, a test subject's performance to failure could be predicted as early as the sixth repetition of the exercise. This predictive model has the potential to provide a basis for improving post-space flight recovery, monitoring muscle atrophy in astronauts and assessing the effectiveness of countermeasures, monitoring astronaut performance and fatigue during Extravehicular Activity (EVA) operations, providing pre-flight assessment of the ability of an EVA crewmember to perform a given task, improving the design of training protocols and simulations for strenuous International Space Station assembly EVA, and enabling EVA work task sequences to be planned enhancing astronaut performance and safety. Potential ground-based, medical applications of the predictive model include monitoring muscle deterioration and performance resulting from illness, establishing safety guidelines in the industry for repetitive tasks, monitoring the stages of rehabilitation for muscle-related injuries sustained in sports and accidents, and enhancing athletic performance through improved training protocols while reducing

  7. Statistical Model Checking of Rich Models and Properties

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Poulsen, Danny Bøgsted

    in undecidability issues for the traditional model checking approaches. Statistical model checking has proven itself a valuable supplement to model checking and this thesis is concerned with extending this software validation technique to stochastic hybrid systems. The thesis consists of two parts: the first part...... motivates why existing model checking technology should be supplemented by new techniques. It also contains a brief introduction to probability theory and concepts covered by the six papers making up the second part. The first two papers are concerned with developing online monitoring techniques...... systems. The fifth paper shows how stochastic hybrid automata are useful for modelling biological systems and the final paper is concerned with showing how statistical model checking is efficiently distributed. In parallel with developing the theory contained in the papers, a substantial part of this work...

  8. Bias in iterative reconstruction of low-statistics PET data: benefits of a resolution model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Walker, M D; Asselin, M-C; Julyan, P J; Feldmann, M; Matthews, J C [School of Cancer and Enabling Sciences, Wolfson Molecular Imaging Centre, MAHSC, University of Manchester, Manchester M20 3LJ (United Kingdom); Talbot, P S [Mental Health and Neurodegeneration Research Group, Wolfson Molecular Imaging Centre, MAHSC, University of Manchester, Manchester M20 3LJ (United Kingdom); Jones, T, E-mail: matthew.walker@manchester.ac.uk [Academic Department of Radiation Oncology, Christie Hospital, University of Manchester, Manchester M20 4BX (United Kingdom)

    2011-02-21

    Iterative image reconstruction methods such as ordered-subset expectation maximization (OSEM) are widely used in PET. Reconstructions via OSEM are however reported to be biased for low-count data. We investigated this and considered the impact for dynamic PET. Patient listmode data were acquired in [{sup 11}C]DASB and [{sup 15}O]H{sub 2}O scans on the HRRT brain PET scanner. These data were subsampled to create many independent, low-count replicates. The data were reconstructed and the images from low-count data were compared to the high-count originals (from the same reconstruction method). This comparison enabled low-statistics bias to be calculated for the given reconstruction, as a function of the noise-equivalent counts (NEC). Two iterative reconstruction methods were tested, one with and one without an image-based resolution model (RM). Significant bias was observed when reconstructing data of low statistical quality, for both subsampled human and simulated data. For human data, this bias was substantially reduced by including a RM. For [{sup 11}C]DASB the low-statistics bias in the caudate head at 1.7 M NEC (approx. 30 s) was -5.5% and -13% with and without RM, respectively. We predicted biases in the binding potential of -4% and -10%. For quantification of cerebral blood flow for the whole-brain grey- or white-matter, using [{sup 15}O]H{sub 2}O and the PET autoradiographic method, a low-statistics bias of <2.5% and <4% was predicted for reconstruction with and without the RM. The use of a resolution model reduces low-statistics bias and can hence be beneficial for quantitative dynamic PET.

  9. Modeling the frequency-dependent detective quantum efficiency of photon-counting x-ray detectors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stierstorfer, Karl

    2018-01-01

    To find a simple model for the frequency-dependent detective quantum efficiency (DQE) of photon-counting detectors in the low flux limit. Formula for the spatial cross-talk, the noise power spectrum and the DQE of a photon-counting detector working at a given threshold are derived. Parameters are probabilities for types of events like single counts in the central pixel, double counts in the central pixel and a neighboring pixel or single count in a neighboring pixel only. These probabilities can be derived in a simple model by extensive use of Monte Carlo techniques: The Monte Carlo x-ray propagation program MOCASSIM is used to simulate the energy deposition from the x-rays in the detector material. A simple charge cloud model using Gaussian clouds of fixed width is used for the propagation of the electric charge generated by the primary interactions. Both stages are combined in a Monte Carlo simulation randomizing the location of impact which finally produces the required probabilities. The parameters of the charge cloud model are fitted to the spectral response to a polychromatic spectrum measured with our prototype detector. Based on the Monte Carlo model, the DQE of photon-counting detectors as a function of spatial frequency is calculated for various pixel sizes, photon energies, and thresholds. The frequency-dependent DQE of a photon-counting detector in the low flux limit can be described with an equation containing only a small set of probabilities as input. Estimates for the probabilities can be derived from a simple model of the detector physics. © 2017 American Association of Physicists in Medicine.

  10. A Statistical Model for Regional Tornado Climate Studies.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas H Jagger

    Full Text Available Tornado reports are locally rare, often clustered, and of variable quality making it difficult to use them directly to describe regional tornado climatology. Here a statistical model is demonstrated that overcomes some of these difficulties and produces a smoothed regional-scale climatology of tornado occurrences. The model is applied to data aggregated at the level of counties. These data include annual population, annual tornado counts and an index of terrain roughness. The model has a term to capture the smoothed frequency relative to the state average. The model is used to examine whether terrain roughness is related to tornado frequency and whether there are differences in tornado activity by County Warning Area (CWA. A key finding is that tornado reports increase by 13% for a two-fold increase in population across Kansas after accounting for improvements in rating procedures. Independent of this relationship, tornadoes have been increasing at an annual rate of 1.9%. Another finding is the pattern of correlated residuals showing more Kansas tornadoes in a corridor of counties running roughly north to south across the west central part of the state consistent with the dryline climatology. The model is significantly improved by adding terrain roughness. The effect amounts to an 18% reduction in the number of tornadoes for every ten meter increase in elevation standard deviation. The model indicates that tornadoes are 51% more likely to occur in counties served by the CWAs of DDC and GID than elsewhere in the state. Flexibility of the model is illustrated by fitting it to data from Illinois, Mississippi, South Dakota, and Ohio.

  11. A Statistical Model for Regional Tornado Climate Studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jagger, Thomas H; Elsner, James B; Widen, Holly M

    2015-01-01

    Tornado reports are locally rare, often clustered, and of variable quality making it difficult to use them directly to describe regional tornado climatology. Here a statistical model is demonstrated that overcomes some of these difficulties and produces a smoothed regional-scale climatology of tornado occurrences. The model is applied to data aggregated at the level of counties. These data include annual population, annual tornado counts and an index of terrain roughness. The model has a term to capture the smoothed frequency relative to the state average. The model is used to examine whether terrain roughness is related to tornado frequency and whether there are differences in tornado activity by County Warning Area (CWA). A key finding is that tornado reports increase by 13% for a two-fold increase in population across Kansas after accounting for improvements in rating procedures. Independent of this relationship, tornadoes have been increasing at an annual rate of 1.9%. Another finding is the pattern of correlated residuals showing more Kansas tornadoes in a corridor of counties running roughly north to south across the west central part of the state consistent with the dryline climatology. The model is significantly improved by adding terrain roughness. The effect amounts to an 18% reduction in the number of tornadoes for every ten meter increase in elevation standard deviation. The model indicates that tornadoes are 51% more likely to occur in counties served by the CWAs of DDC and GID than elsewhere in the state. Flexibility of the model is illustrated by fitting it to data from Illinois, Mississippi, South Dakota, and Ohio.

  12. Network Data: Statistical Theory and New Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-02-17

    and with environmental scientists at JPL and Emory University to retrieval from NASA MISR remote sensing images aerosol index AOD for air pollution ...Beijing, May, 2013 Beijing Statistics Forum, Beijing, May, 2013 Statistics Seminar, CREST-ENSAE, Paris , March, 2013 Statistics Seminar, University...to retrieval from NASA MISR remote sensing images aerosol index AOD for air pollution monitoring and management. Satellite- retrieved Aerosol Optical

  13. Quantum statistical model for hot dense matter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rukhsana Kouser; Tasneem, G.; Saleem Shahzad, M.; Shafiq-ur-Rehman; Nasim, M.H.; Amjad Ali

    2015-01-01

    In solving numerous applied problems, one needs to know the equation of state, photon absorption coefficient and opacity of substances employed. We present a code for absorption coefficient and opacity calculation based on quantum statistical model. A self-consistent method for the calculation of potential is used. By solving Schrödinger equation with self-consistent potential we find energy spectrum of quantum mechanical system and corresponding wave functions. In addition we find mean occupation numbers of electron states and average charge state of the substance studied. The main processes of interaction of radiation with matter included in our opacity calculation are photon absorption in spectral lines (Bound-bound), photoionization (Bound-free), inverse bremsstrahlung (Free-free), Compton and Thomson scattering. Bound-bound line shape function has contribution from natural, Doppler, fine structure, collisional and stark broadening. To illustrate the main features of the code and its capabilities, calculation of average charge state, absorption coefficient, Rosseland and Planck mean and group opacities of aluminum and iron are presented. Results are satisfactorily compared with the published data. (authors)

  14. What every radiochemist should know about statistics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nicholson, W.L.

    1994-04-01

    Radionuclide decay and measurement with appropriate counting instruments is one of the few physical processes for which exact mathematical/probabilistic models are available. This paper discusses statistical procedures associated with display and analysis of radionuclide counting data that derive from these exact models. For low count situations the attractiveness of fixed-count-random-time procedures is discussed

  15. Integer Representations towards Efficient Counting in the Bit Probe Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brodal, Gerth Stølting; Greve, Mark; Pandey, Vineet

    2011-01-01

    Abstract We consider the problem of representing numbers in close to optimal space and supporting increment, decrement, addition and subtraction operations efficiently. We study the problem in the bit probe model and analyse the number of bits read and written to perform the operations, both...... in the worst-case and in the average-case. A counter is space-optimal if it represents any number in the range [0,...,2 n  − 1] using exactly n bits. We provide a space-optimal counter which supports increment and decrement operations by reading at most n − 1 bits and writing at most 3 bits in the worst......-case. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first such representation which supports these operations by always reading strictly less than n bits. For redundant counters where we only need to represent numbers in the range [0,...,L] for some integer L bits, we define the efficiency...

  16. Bayesian prediction of spatial count data using generalized linear mixed models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Ole Fredslund; Waagepetersen, Rasmus Plenge

    2002-01-01

    Spatial weed count data are modeled and predicted using a generalized linear mixed model combined with a Bayesian approach and Markov chain Monte Carlo. Informative priors for a data set with sparse sampling are elicited using a previously collected data set with extensive sampling. Furthermore, ...

  17. Assessing the value of museums with a combined discrete choice/ count data model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rouwendal, J.; Boter, J.

    2009-01-01

    This article assesses the value of Dutch museums using information about destination choice as well as about the number of trips undertaken by an actor. Destination choice is analysed by means of a mixed logit model, and a count data model is used to explain trip generation. We use a

  18. A LATENT CLASS POISSON REGRESSION-MODEL FOR HETEROGENEOUS COUNT DATA

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    WEDEL, M; DESARBO, WS; BULT, [No Value; RAMASWAMY, [No Value

    1993-01-01

    In this paper an approach is developed that accommodates heterogeneity in Poisson regression models for count data. The model developed assumes that heterogeneity arises from a distribution of both the intercept and the coefficients of the explanatory variables. We assume that the mixing

  19. A BRDF statistical model applying to space target materials modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Chenghao; Li, Zhi; Xu, Can; Tian, Qichen

    2017-10-01

    In order to solve the problem of poor effect in modeling the large density BRDF measured data with five-parameter semi-empirical model, a refined statistical model of BRDF which is suitable for multi-class space target material modeling were proposed. The refined model improved the Torrance-Sparrow model while having the modeling advantages of five-parameter model. Compared with the existing empirical model, the model contains six simple parameters, which can approximate the roughness distribution of the material surface, can approximate the intensity of the Fresnel reflectance phenomenon and the attenuation of the reflected light's brightness with the azimuth angle changes. The model is able to achieve parameter inversion quickly with no extra loss of accuracy. The genetic algorithm was used to invert the parameters of 11 different samples in the space target commonly used materials, and the fitting errors of all materials were below 6%, which were much lower than those of five-parameter model. The effect of the refined model is verified by comparing the fitting results of the three samples at different incident zenith angles in 0° azimuth angle. Finally, the three-dimensional modeling visualizations of these samples in the upper hemisphere space was given, in which the strength of the optical scattering of different materials could be clearly shown. It proved the good describing ability of the refined model at the material characterization as well.

  20. Statistical Challenges in Modeling Big Brain Signals

    KAUST Repository

    Yu, Zhaoxia

    2017-11-01

    Brain signal data are inherently big: massive in amount, complex in structure, and high in dimensions. These characteristics impose great challenges for statistical inference and learning. Here we review several key challenges, discuss possible solutions, and highlight future research directions.

  1. Statistical Challenges in Modeling Big Brain Signals

    KAUST Repository

    Yu, Zhaoxia; Pluta, Dustin; Shen, Tong; Chen, Chuansheng; Xue, Gui; Ombao, Hernando

    2017-01-01

    Brain signal data are inherently big: massive in amount, complex in structure, and high in dimensions. These characteristics impose great challenges for statistical inference and learning. Here we review several key challenges, discuss possible

  2. Modeling time-series count data: the unique challenges facing political communication studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fogarty, Brian J; Monogan, James E

    2014-05-01

    This paper demonstrates the importance of proper model specification when analyzing time-series count data in political communication studies. It is common for scholars of media and politics to investigate counts of coverage of an issue as it evolves over time. Many scholars rightly consider the issues of time dependence and dynamic causality to be the most important when crafting a model. However, to ignore the count features of the outcome variable overlooks an important feature of the data. This is particularly the case when modeling data with a low number of counts. In this paper, we argue that the Poisson autoregressive model (Brandt and Williams, 2001) accurately meets the needs of many media studies. We replicate the analyses of Flemming et al. (1997), Peake and Eshbaugh-Soha (2008), and Ura (2009) and demonstrate that models missing some of the assumptions of the Poisson autoregressive model often yield invalid inferences. We also demonstrate that the effect of any of these models can be illustrated dynamically with estimates of uncertainty through a simulation procedure. The paper concludes with implications of these findings for the practical researcher. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Statistical Learning Theory: Models, Concepts, and Results

    OpenAIRE

    von Luxburg, Ulrike; Schoelkopf, Bernhard

    2008-01-01

    Statistical learning theory provides the theoretical basis for many of today's machine learning algorithms. In this article we attempt to give a gentle, non-technical overview over the key ideas and insights of statistical learning theory. We target at a broad audience, not necessarily machine learning researchers. This paper can serve as a starting point for people who want to get an overview on the field before diving into technical details.

  4. Integrating chronological uncertainties for annually laminated lake sediments using layer counting, independent chronologies and Bayesian age modelling (Lake Ohau, South Island, New Zealand)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vandergoes, Marcus J.; Howarth, Jamie D.; Dunbar, Gavin B.; Turnbull, Jocelyn C.; Roop, Heidi A.; Levy, Richard H.; Li, Xun; Prior, Christine; Norris, Margaret; Keller, Liz D.; Baisden, W. Troy; Ditchburn, Robert; Fitzsimons, Sean J.; Bronk Ramsey, Christopher

    2018-05-01

    Annually resolved (varved) lake sequences are important palaeoenvironmental archives as they offer a direct incremental dating technique for high-frequency reconstruction of environmental and climate change. Despite the importance of these records, establishing a robust chronology and quantifying its precision and accuracy (estimations of error) remains an essential but challenging component of their development. We outline an approach for building reliable independent chronologies, testing the accuracy of layer counts and integrating all chronological uncertainties to provide quantitative age and error estimates for varved lake sequences. The approach incorporates (1) layer counts and estimates of counting precision; (2) radiometric and biostratigrapic dating techniques to derive independent chronology; and (3) the application of Bayesian age modelling to produce an integrated age model. This approach is applied to a case study of an annually resolved sediment record from Lake Ohau, New Zealand. The most robust age model provides an average error of 72 years across the whole depth range. This represents a fractional uncertainty of ∼5%, higher than the <3% quoted for most published varve records. However, the age model and reported uncertainty represent the best fit between layer counts and independent chronology and the uncertainties account for both layer counting precision and the chronological accuracy of the layer counts. This integrated approach provides a more representative estimate of age uncertainty and therefore represents a statistically more robust chronology.

  5. Online Statistical Modeling (Regression Analysis) for Independent Responses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Made Tirta, I.; Anggraeni, Dian; Pandutama, Martinus

    2017-06-01

    Regression analysis (statistical analmodelling) are among statistical methods which are frequently needed in analyzing quantitative data, especially to model relationship between response and explanatory variables. Nowadays, statistical models have been developed into various directions to model various type and complex relationship of data. Rich varieties of advanced and recent statistical modelling are mostly available on open source software (one of them is R). However, these advanced statistical modelling, are not very friendly to novice R users, since they are based on programming script or command line interface. Our research aims to developed web interface (based on R and shiny), so that most recent and advanced statistical modelling are readily available, accessible and applicable on web. We have previously made interface in the form of e-tutorial for several modern and advanced statistical modelling on R especially for independent responses (including linear models/LM, generalized linier models/GLM, generalized additive model/GAM and generalized additive model for location scale and shape/GAMLSS). In this research we unified them in the form of data analysis, including model using Computer Intensive Statistics (Bootstrap and Markov Chain Monte Carlo/ MCMC). All are readily accessible on our online Virtual Statistics Laboratory. The web (interface) make the statistical modeling becomes easier to apply and easier to compare them in order to find the most appropriate model for the data.

  6. A simple and robust statistical framework for planning, analysing and interpreting faecal egg count reduction test (FECRT) studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Denwood, M.J.; McKendrick, I.J.; Matthews, L.

    Introduction. There is an urgent need for a method of analysing FECRT data that is computationally simple and statistically robust. A method for evaluating the statistical power of a proposed FECRT study would also greatly enhance the current guidelines. Methods. A novel statistical framework has...... been developed that evaluates observed FECRT data against two null hypotheses: (1) the observed efficacy is consistent with the expected efficacy, and (2) the observed efficacy is inferior to the expected efficacy. The method requires only four simple summary statistics of the observed data. Power...... that the notional type 1 error rate of the new statistical test is accurate. Power calculations demonstrate a power of only 65% with a sample size of 20 treatment and control animals, which increases to 69% with 40 control animals or 79% with 40 treatment animals. Discussion. The method proposed is simple...

  7. Use of a mixture statistical model in studying malaria vectors density.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olayidé Boussari

    Full Text Available Vector control is a major step in the process of malaria control and elimination. This requires vector counts and appropriate statistical analyses of these counts. However, vector counts are often overdispersed. A non-parametric mixture of Poisson model (NPMP is proposed to allow for overdispersion and better describe vector distribution. Mosquito collections using the Human Landing Catches as well as collection of environmental and climatic data were carried out from January to December 2009 in 28 villages in Southern Benin. A NPMP regression model with "village" as random effect is used to test statistical correlations between malaria vectors density and environmental and climatic factors. Furthermore, the villages were ranked using the latent classes derived from the NPMP model. Based on this classification of the villages, the impacts of four vector control strategies implemented in the villages were compared. Vector counts were highly variable and overdispersed with important proportion of zeros (75%. The NPMP model had a good aptitude to predict the observed values and showed that: i proximity to freshwater body, market gardening, and high levels of rain were associated with high vector density; ii water conveyance, cattle breeding, vegetation index were associated with low vector density. The 28 villages could then be ranked according to the mean vector number as estimated by the random part of the model after adjustment on all covariates. The NPMP model made it possible to describe the distribution of the vector across the study area. The villages were ranked according to the mean vector density after taking into account the most important covariates. This study demonstrates the necessity and possibility of adapting methods of vector counting and sampling to each setting.

  8. Early Colorectal Cancer Detected by Machine Learning Model Using Gender, Age, and Complete Blood Count Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hornbrook, Mark C; Goshen, Ran; Choman, Eran; O'Keeffe-Rosetti, Maureen; Kinar, Yaron; Liles, Elizabeth G; Rust, Kristal C

    2017-10-01

    Machine learning tools identify patients with blood counts indicating greater likelihood of colorectal cancer and warranting colonoscopy referral. To validate a machine learning colorectal cancer detection model on a US community-based insured adult population. Eligible colorectal cancer cases (439 females, 461 males) with complete blood counts before diagnosis were identified from Kaiser Permanente Northwest Region's Tumor Registry. Control patients (n = 9108) were randomly selected from KPNW's population who had no cancers, received at ≥1 blood count, had continuous enrollment from 180 days prior to the blood count through 24 months after the count, and were aged 40-89. For each control, one blood count was randomly selected as the pseudo-colorectal cancer diagnosis date for matching to cases, and assigned a "calendar year" based on the count date. For each calendar year, 18 controls were randomly selected to match the general enrollment's 10-year age groups and lengths of continuous enrollment. Prediction performance was evaluated by area under the curve, specificity, and odds ratios. Area under the receiver operating characteristics curve for detecting colorectal cancer was 0.80 ± 0.01. At 99% specificity, the odds ratio for association of a high-risk detection score with colorectal cancer was 34.7 (95% CI 28.9-40.4). The detection model had the highest accuracy in identifying right-sided colorectal cancers. ColonFlag ® identifies individuals with tenfold higher risk of undiagnosed colorectal cancer at curable stages (0/I/II), flags colorectal tumors 180-360 days prior to usual clinical diagnosis, and is more accurate at identifying right-sided (compared to left-sided) colorectal cancers.

  9. Poisson regression for modeling count and frequency outcomes in trauma research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gagnon, David R; Doron-LaMarca, Susan; Bell, Margret; O'Farrell, Timothy J; Taft, Casey T

    2008-10-01

    The authors describe how the Poisson regression method for analyzing count or frequency outcome variables can be applied in trauma studies. The outcome of interest in trauma research may represent a count of the number of incidents of behavior occurring in a given time interval, such as acts of physical aggression or substance abuse. Traditional linear regression approaches assume a normally distributed outcome variable with equal variances over the range of predictor variables, and may not be optimal for modeling count outcomes. An application of Poisson regression is presented using data from a study of intimate partner aggression among male patients in an alcohol treatment program and their female partners. Results of Poisson regression and linear regression models are compared.

  10. A Realism-Based View on Counts in OMOP's Common Data Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ceusters, Werner; Blaisure, Jonathan

    2017-01-01

    Correctly counting entities is a requirement for analytics tools to function appropriately. The Observational Medical Outcomes Partnership's (OMOP) Common Data Model (CDM) specifications were examined to assess the extent to which counting in OMOP CDM compatible data repositories would work as expected. To that end, constructs (tables, fields and attributes) defined in the OMOP CDM as well as cardinality constraints and other business rules found in its documentation and related literature were compared to the types of entities and axioms proposed in realism-based ontologies. It was found that not only the model itself, but also a proposed standard algorithm for computing condition eras may lead to erroneous counting of several sorts of entities.

  11. Use of the Beta-Binomial Model for Central Statistical Monitoring of Multicenter Clinical Trials

    OpenAIRE

    Desmet, Lieven; Venet, David; Doffagne, Erik; Timmermans, Catherine; Legrand, Catherine; Burzykowski, Tomasz; Buyse, Marc

    2017-01-01

    As part of central statistical monitoring of multicenter clinical trial data, we propose a procedure based on the beta-binomial distribution for the detection of centers with atypical values for the probability of some event. The procedure makes no assumptions about the typical event proportion and uses the event counts from all centers to derive a reference model. The procedure is shown through simulations to have high sensitivity and high specificity if the contamination rate is small and t...

  12. Integer Set Compression and Statistical Modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsson, N. Jesper

    2014-01-01

    enumeration of elements may be arbitrary or random, but where statistics is kept in order to estimate probabilities of elements. We present a recursive subset-size encoding method that is able to benefit from statistics, explore the effects of permuting the enumeration order based on element probabilities......Compression of integer sets and sequences has been extensively studied for settings where elements follow a uniform probability distribution. In addition, methods exist that exploit clustering of elements in order to achieve higher compression performance. In this work, we address the case where...

  13. Zero-inflated count models for longitudinal measurements with heterogeneous random effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Huirong; Luo, Sheng; DeSantis, Stacia M

    2017-08-01

    Longitudinal zero-inflated count data arise frequently in substance use research when assessing the effects of behavioral and pharmacological interventions. Zero-inflated count models (e.g. zero-inflated Poisson or zero-inflated negative binomial) with random effects have been developed to analyze this type of data. In random effects zero-inflated count models, the random effects covariance matrix is typically assumed to be homogeneous (constant across subjects). However, in many situations this matrix may be heterogeneous (differ by measured covariates). In this paper, we extend zero-inflated count models to account for random effects heterogeneity by modeling their variance as a function of covariates. We show via simulation that ignoring intervention and covariate-specific heterogeneity can produce biased estimates of covariate and random effect estimates. Moreover, those biased estimates can be rectified by correctly modeling the random effects covariance structure. The methodological development is motivated by and applied to the Combined Pharmacotherapies and Behavioral Interventions for Alcohol Dependence (COMBINE) study, the largest clinical trial of alcohol dependence performed in United States with 1383 individuals.

  14. Statistical modelling for social researchers principles and practice

    CERN Document Server

    Tarling, Roger

    2008-01-01

    This book explains the principles and theory of statistical modelling in an intelligible way for the non-mathematical social scientist looking to apply statistical modelling techniques in research. The book also serves as an introduction for those wishing to develop more detailed knowledge and skills in statistical modelling. Rather than present a limited number of statistical models in great depth, the aim is to provide a comprehensive overview of the statistical models currently adopted in social research, in order that the researcher can make appropriate choices and select the most suitable model for the research question to be addressed. To facilitate application, the book also offers practical guidance and instruction in fitting models using SPSS and Stata, the most popular statistical computer software which is available to most social researchers. Instruction in using MLwiN is also given. Models covered in the book include; multiple regression, binary, multinomial and ordered logistic regression, log-l...

  15. Linear Mixed Models in Statistical Genetics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R. de Vlaming (Ronald)

    2017-01-01

    markdownabstractOne of the goals of statistical genetics is to elucidate the genetic architecture of phenotypes (i.e., observable individual characteristics) that are affected by many genetic variants (e.g., single-nucleotide polymorphisms; SNPs). A particular aim is to identify specific SNPs that

  16. Applicability of Zero-Inflated Models to Fit the Torrential Rainfall Count Data with Extra Zeros in South Korea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cheol-Eung Lee

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Several natural disasters occur because of torrential rainfalls. The change in global climate most likely increases the occurrences of such downpours. Hence, it is necessary to investigate the characteristics of the torrential rainfall events in order to introduce effective measures for mitigating disasters such as urban floods and landslides. However, one of the major problems is evaluating the number of torrential rainfall events from a statistical viewpoint. If the number of torrential rainfall occurrences during a month is considered as count data, their frequency distribution could be identified using a probability distribution. Generally, the number of torrential rainfall occurrences has been analyzed using the Poisson distribution (POI or the Generalized Poisson Distribution (GPD. However, it was reported that POI and GPD often overestimated or underestimated the observed count data when additional or fewer zeros were included. Hence, in this study, a zero-inflated model concept was applied to solve this problem existing in the conventional models. Zero-Inflated Poisson (ZIP model, Zero-Inflated Generalized Poisson (ZIGP model, and the Bayesian ZIGP model have often been applied to fit the count data having additional or fewer zeros. However, the applications of these models in water resource management have been very limited despite their efficiency and accuracy. The five models, namely, POI, GPD, ZIP, ZIGP, and Bayesian ZIGP, were applied to the torrential rainfall data having additional zeros obtained from two rain gauges in South Korea, and their applicability was examined in this study. In particular, the informative prior distributions evaluated via the empirical Bayes method using ten rain gauges were developed in the Bayesian ZIGP model. Finally, it was suggested to avoid using the POI and GPD models to fit the frequency of torrential rainfall data. In addition, it was concluded that the Bayesian ZIGP model used in this study

  17. Statistical models and methods for reliability and survival analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Couallier, Vincent; Huber-Carol, Catherine; Mesbah, Mounir; Huber -Carol, Catherine; Limnios, Nikolaos; Gerville-Reache, Leo

    2013-01-01

    Statistical Models and Methods for Reliability and Survival Analysis brings together contributions by specialists in statistical theory as they discuss their applications providing up-to-date developments in methods used in survival analysis, statistical goodness of fit, stochastic processes for system reliability, amongst others. Many of these are related to the work of Professor M. Nikulin in statistics over the past 30 years. The authors gather together various contributions with a broad array of techniques and results, divided into three parts - Statistical Models and Methods, Statistical

  18. A review of spatio-temporal modelling of quadrat count data with application to striga occurrence in a pearl millet field

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hess, Dale; van Lieshout, Marie-Colette; Payne, Bill; Stein, Alfred

    This paper describes how spatial statistical techniques may be used to analyse weed occurrence in tropical fields. Quadrat counts of weed numbers are available over a series of years, as well as data on explanatory variables, and the aim is to smooth the data and assess spatial and temporal trends. We review a range of models for correlated count data. As an illustration, we consider data on striga infestation of a 60 × 24 m 2 millet field in Niger collected from 1985 until 1991, modelled by independent Poisson counts and a prior auto regression term enforcing spatial coherence. The smoothed fields show the presence of a seed bank, the estimated model parameters indicate a decay in the striga numbers over time, as well as a clear correlation with the amount of rainfall in 15 consecutive days following the sowing date. Such results could contribute to precision agriculture as a guide to more cost-effective striga control strategies.

  19. The demand of car rentals: a microeconometric approach with count models and survey data

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Menezes, A. G.; Uzagalieva, Ainura

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 5, č. 1 (2013), s. 25-41 ISSN 1973-3909 Institutional support: RVO:67985998 Keywords : count data models * tourism * tax rates Subject RIV: AH - Economics http://www.rofea.org/index.php?journal=journal&page=article&op=view&path%5B%5D=106

  20. Spot counting on fluorescence in situ hybridization in suspension images using Gaussian mixture model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Sijia; Sa, Ruhan; Maguire, Orla; Minderman, Hans; Chaudhary, Vipin

    2015-03-01

    Cytogenetic abnormalities are important diagnostic and prognostic criteria for acute myeloid leukemia (AML). A flow cytometry-based imaging approach for FISH in suspension (FISH-IS) was established that enables the automated analysis of several log-magnitude higher number of cells compared to the microscopy-based approaches. The rotational positioning can occur leading to discordance between spot count. As a solution of counting error from overlapping spots, in this study, a Gaussian Mixture Model based classification method is proposed. The Akaike information criterion (AIC) and Bayesian information criterion (BIC) of GMM are used as global image features of this classification method. Via Random Forest classifier, the result shows that the proposed method is able to detect closely overlapping spots which cannot be separated by existing image segmentation based spot detection methods. The experiment results show that by the proposed method we can obtain a significant improvement in spot counting accuracy.

  1. Geometric modeling in probability and statistics

    CERN Document Server

    Calin, Ovidiu

    2014-01-01

    This book covers topics of Informational Geometry, a field which deals with the differential geometric study of the manifold probability density functions. This is a field that is increasingly attracting the interest of researchers from many different areas of science, including mathematics, statistics, geometry, computer science, signal processing, physics and neuroscience. It is the authors’ hope that the present book will be a valuable reference for researchers and graduate students in one of the aforementioned fields. This textbook is a unified presentation of differential geometry and probability theory, and constitutes a text for a course directed at graduate or advanced undergraduate students interested in applications of differential geometry in probability and statistics. The book contains over 100 proposed exercises meant to help students deepen their understanding, and it is accompanied by software that is able to provide numerical computations of several information geometric objects. The reader...

  2. Challenges in dental statistics: data and modelling

    OpenAIRE

    Matranga, D.; Castiglia, P.; Solinas, G.

    2013-01-01

    The aim of this work is to present the reflections and proposals derived from the first Workshop of the SISMEC STATDENT working group on statistical methods and applications in dentistry, held in Ancona (Italy) on 28th September 2011. STATDENT began as a forum of comparison and discussion for statisticians working in the field of dental research in order to suggest new and improve existing biostatistical and clinical epidemiological methods. During the meeting, we dealt with very important to...

  3. Modeling Systematic Change in Stopover Duration Does Not Improve Bias in Trends Estimated from Migration Counts.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tara L Crewe

    Full Text Available The use of counts of unmarked migrating animals to monitor long term population trends assumes independence of daily counts and a constant rate of detection. However, migratory stopovers often last days or weeks, violating the assumption of count independence. Further, a systematic change in stopover duration will result in a change in the probability of detecting individuals once, but also in the probability of detecting individuals on more than one sampling occasion. We tested how variation in stopover duration influenced accuracy and precision of population trends by simulating migration count data with known constant rate of population change and by allowing daily probability of survival (an index of stopover duration to remain constant, or to vary randomly, cyclically, or increase linearly over time by various levels. Using simulated datasets with a systematic increase in stopover duration, we also tested whether any resulting bias in population trend could be reduced by modeling the underlying source of variation in detection, or by subsampling data to every three or five days to reduce the incidence of recounting. Mean bias in population trend did not differ significantly from zero when stopover duration remained constant or varied randomly over time, but bias and the detection of false trends increased significantly with a systematic increase in stopover duration. Importantly, an increase in stopover duration over time resulted in a compounding effect on counts due to the increased probability of detection and of recounting on subsequent sampling occasions. Under this scenario, bias in population trend could not be modeled using a covariate for stopover duration alone. Rather, to improve inference drawn about long term population change using counts of unmarked migrants, analyses must include a covariate for stopover duration, as well as incorporate sampling modifications (e.g., subsampling to reduce the probability that individuals will

  4. A statistical model of future human actions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Woo, G.

    1992-02-01

    A critical review has been carried out of models of future human actions during the long term post-closure period of a radioactive waste repository. Various Markov models have been considered as alternatives to the standard Poisson model, and the problems of parameterisation have been addressed. Where the simplistic Poisson model unduly exaggerates the intrusion risk, some form of Markov model may have to be introduced. This situation may well arise for shallow repositories, but it is less likely for deep repositories. Recommendations are made for a practical implementation of a computer based model and its associated database. (Author)

  5. Enhanced surrogate models for statistical design exploiting space mapping technology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Koziel, Slawek; Bandler, John W.; Mohamed, Achmed S.

    2005-01-01

    We present advances in microwave and RF device modeling exploiting Space Mapping (SM) technology. We propose new SM modeling formulations utilizing input mappings, output mappings, frequency scaling and quadratic approximations. Our aim is to enhance circuit models for statistical analysis...

  6. Statistical models of shape optimisation and evaluation

    CERN Document Server

    Davies, Rhodri; Taylor, Chris

    2014-01-01

    Deformable shape models have wide application in computer vision and biomedical image analysis. This book addresses a key issue in shape modelling: establishment of a meaningful correspondence between a set of shapes. Full implementation details are provided.

  7. Pre-Statistical Process Control: Making Numbers Count! JobLink Winning at Work Instructor's Manual, Module 3.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coast Community Coll. District, Costa Mesa, CA.

    This instructor's manual for workplace trainers contains the materials required to conduct a course in pre-statistical process control. The course consists of six lessons for workers and two lessons for supervisors that discuss the following: concepts taught in the six lessons; workers' progress in the individual lessons; and strategies for…

  8. How to practise Bayesian statistics outside the Bayesian church: What philosophy for Bayesian statistical modelling?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Borsboom, D.; Haig, B.D.

    2013-01-01

    Unlike most other statistical frameworks, Bayesian statistical inference is wedded to a particular approach in the philosophy of science (see Howson & Urbach, 2006); this approach is called Bayesianism. Rather than being concerned with model fitting, this position in the philosophy of science

  9. Statistical Tests for Mixed Linear Models

    CERN Document Server

    Khuri, André I; Sinha, Bimal K

    2011-01-01

    An advanced discussion of linear models with mixed or random effects. In recent years a breakthrough has occurred in our ability to draw inferences from exact and optimum tests of variance component models, generating much research activity that relies on linear models with mixed and random effects. This volume covers the most important research of the past decade as well as the latest developments in hypothesis testing. It compiles all currently available results in the area of exact and optimum tests for variance component models and offers the only comprehensive treatment for these models a

  10. Statistical modelling of traffic safety development

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christens, Peter

    2004-01-01

    there were 6861 injury trafficc accidents reported by the police, resulting in 4519 minor injuries, 3946 serious injuries, and 431 fatalities. The general purpose of the research was to improve the insight into aggregated road safety methodology in Denmark. The aim was to analyse advanced statistical methods......, that were designed to study developments over time, including effects of interventions. This aim has been achieved by investigating variations in aggregated Danish traffic accident series and by applying state of the art methodologies to specific case studies. The thesis comprises an introduction...

  11. A statistical mechanical model for equilibrium ionization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Macris, N.; Martin, P.A.; Pule, J.

    1990-01-01

    A quantum electron interacts with a classical gas of hard spheres and is in thermal equilibrium with it. The interaction is attractive and the electron can form a bound state with the classical particles. It is rigorously shown that in a well defined low density and low temperature limit, the ionization probability for the electron tends to the value predicted by the Saha formula for thermal ionization. In this regime, the electron is found to be in a statistical mixture of a bound and a free state. (orig.)

  12. Statistical image processing and multidimensional modeling

    CERN Document Server

    Fieguth, Paul

    2010-01-01

    Images are all around us! The proliferation of low-cost, high-quality imaging devices has led to an explosion in acquired images. When these images are acquired from a microscope, telescope, satellite, or medical imaging device, there is a statistical image processing task: the inference of something - an artery, a road, a DNA marker, an oil spill - from imagery, possibly noisy, blurry, or incomplete. A great many textbooks have been written on image processing. However this book does not so much focus on images, per se, but rather on spatial data sets, with one or more measurements taken over

  13. Four shells atomic model to computer the counting efficiency of electron-capture nuclides

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grau Malonda, A.; Fernandez Martinez, A.

    1985-01-01

    The present paper develops a four-shells atomic model in order to obtain the efficiency of detection in liquid scintillation courting, Mathematical expressions are given to calculate the probabilities of the 229 different atomic rearrangements so as the corresponding effective energies. This new model will permit the study of the influence of the different parameters upon the counting efficiency for nuclides of high atomic number. (Author) 7 refs

  14. Fluctuations and correlations in statistical models of hadron production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gorenstein, M. I.

    2012-01-01

    An extension of the standard concept of the statistical ensembles is suggested. Namely, the statistical ensembles with extensive quantities fluctuating according to an externally given distribution are introduced. Applications in the statistical models of multiple hadron production in high energy physics are discussed.

  15. Analysis and Evaluation of Statistical Models for Integrated Circuits Design

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sáenz-Noval J.J.

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Statistical models for integrated circuits (IC allow us to estimate the percentage of acceptable devices in the batch before fabrication. Actually, Pelgrom is the statistical model most accepted in the industry; however it was derived from a micrometer technology, which does not guarantee reliability in nanometric manufacturing processes. This work considers three of the most relevant statistical models in the industry and evaluates their limitations and advantages in analog design, so that the designer has a better criterion to make a choice. Moreover, it shows how several statistical models can be used for each one of the stages and design purposes.

  16. Modeling of uncertainties in statistical inverse problems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaipio, Jari

    2008-01-01

    In all real world problems, the models that tie the measurements to the unknowns of interest, are at best only approximations for reality. While moderate modeling and approximation errors can be tolerated with stable problems, inverse problems are a notorious exception. Typical modeling errors include inaccurate geometry, unknown boundary and initial data, properties of noise and other disturbances, and simply the numerical approximations of the physical models. In principle, the Bayesian approach to inverse problems, in which all uncertainties are modeled as random variables, is capable of handling these uncertainties. Depending on the type of uncertainties, however, different strategies may be adopted. In this paper we give an overview of typical modeling errors and related strategies within the Bayesian framework.

  17. Interpretation of commonly used statistical regression models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kasza, Jessica; Wolfe, Rory

    2014-01-01

    A review of some regression models commonly used in respiratory health applications is provided in this article. Simple linear regression, multiple linear regression, logistic regression and ordinal logistic regression are considered. The focus of this article is on the interpretation of the regression coefficients of each model, which are illustrated through the application of these models to a respiratory health research study. © 2013 The Authors. Respirology © 2013 Asian Pacific Society of Respirology.

  18. Statistical modeling and extrapolation of carcinogenesis data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krewski, D.; Murdoch, D.; Dewanji, A.

    1986-01-01

    Mathematical models of carcinogenesis are reviewed, including pharmacokinetic models for metabolic activation of carcinogenic substances. Maximum likelihood procedures for fitting these models to epidemiological data are discussed, including situations where the time to tumor occurrence is unobservable. The plausibility of different possible shapes of the dose response curve at low doses is examined, and a robust method for linear extrapolation to low doses is proposed and applied to epidemiological data on radiation carcinogenesis

  19. Plan Recognition using Statistical Relational Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-08-25

    corresponding undirected model can be significantly more complex since there is no closed form solution for the maximum-likelihood set of parameters unlike in...algorithm did not scale to larger training sets, and the overall results are still not competitive with BALPs. 5In directed models, a closed form solution...opinions of ARO, DARPA, NSF or any other government agency. References Albrecht DW, Zukerman I, Nicholson AE. Bayesian models for keyhole plan

  20. Multivariate statistical modelling based on generalized linear models

    CERN Document Server

    Fahrmeir, Ludwig

    1994-01-01

    This book is concerned with the use of generalized linear models for univariate and multivariate regression analysis. Its emphasis is to provide a detailed introductory survey of the subject based on the analysis of real data drawn from a variety of subjects including the biological sciences, economics, and the social sciences. Where possible, technical details and proofs are deferred to an appendix in order to provide an accessible account for non-experts. Topics covered include: models for multi-categorical responses, model checking, time series and longitudinal data, random effects models, and state-space models. Throughout, the authors have taken great pains to discuss the underlying theoretical ideas in ways that relate well to the data at hand. As a result, numerous researchers whose work relies on the use of these models will find this an invaluable account to have on their desks. "The basic aim of the authors is to bring together and review a large part of recent advances in statistical modelling of m...

  1. Using Count Data and Ordered Models in National Forest Recreation Demand Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simões, Paula; Barata, Eduardo; Cruz, Luis

    2013-11-01

    This research addresses the need to improve our knowledge on the demand for national forests for recreation and offers an in-depth data analysis supported by the complementary use of count data and ordered models. From a policy-making perspective, while count data models enable the estimation of monetary welfare measures, ordered models allow for the wider use of the database and provide a more flexible analysis of data. The main purpose of this article is to analyse the individual forest recreation demand and to derive a measure of its current use value. To allow a more complete analysis of the forest recreation demand structure the econometric approach supplements the use of count data models with ordered category models using data obtained by means of an on-site survey in the Bussaco National Forest (Portugal). Overall, both models reveal that travel cost and substitute prices are important explanatory variables, visits are a normal good and demographic variables seem to have no influence on demand. In particular, estimated price and income elasticities of demand are quite low. Accordingly, it is possible to argue that travel cost (price) in isolation may be expected to have a low impact on visitation levels.

  2. Modeling forest fire occurrences using count-data mixed models in Qiannan autonomous prefecture of Guizhou province in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiao, Yundan; Zhang, Xiongqing; Ji, Ping

    2015-01-01

    Forest fires can cause catastrophic damage on natural resources. In the meantime, it can also bring serious economic and social impacts. Meteorological factors play a critical role in establishing conditions favorable for a forest fire. Effective prediction of forest fire occurrences could prevent or minimize losses. This paper uses count data models to analyze fire occurrence data which is likely to be dispersed and frequently contain an excess of zero counts (no fire occurrence). Such data have commonly been analyzed using count data models such as a Poisson model, negative binomial model (NB), zero-inflated models, and hurdle models. Data we used in this paper is collected from Qiannan autonomous prefecture of Guizhou province in China. Using the fire occurrence data from January to April (spring fire season) for the years 1996 through 2007, we introduced random effects to the count data models. In this study, the results indicated that the prediction achieved through NB model provided a more compelling and credible inferential basis for fitting actual forest fire occurrence, and mixed-effects model performed better than corresponding fixed-effects model in forest fire forecasting. Besides, among all meteorological factors, we found that relative humidity and wind speed is highly correlated with fire occurrence.

  3. Latent segmentation based count models: Analysis of bicycle safety in Montreal and Toronto.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yasmin, Shamsunnahar; Eluru, Naveen

    2016-10-01

    The study contributes to literature on bicycle safety by building on the traditional count regression models to investigate factors affecting bicycle crashes at the Traffic Analysis Zone (TAZ) level. TAZ is a traffic related geographic entity which is most frequently used as spatial unit for macroscopic crash risk analysis. In conventional count models, the impact of exogenous factors is restricted to be the same across the entire region. However, it is possible that the influence of exogenous factors might vary across different TAZs. To accommodate for the potential variation in the impact of exogenous factors we formulate latent segmentation based count models. Specifically, we formulate and estimate latent segmentation based Poisson (LP) and latent segmentation based Negative Binomial (LNB) models to study bicycle crash counts. In our latent segmentation approach, we allow for more than two segments and also consider a large set of variables in segmentation and segment specific models. The formulated models are estimated using bicycle-motor vehicle crash data from the Island of Montreal and City of Toronto for the years 2006 through 2010. The TAZ level variables considered in our analysis include accessibility measures, exposure measures, sociodemographic characteristics, socioeconomic characteristics, road network characteristics and built environment. A policy analysis is also conducted to illustrate the applicability of the proposed model for planning purposes. This macro-level research would assist decision makers, transportation officials and community planners to make informed decisions to proactively improve bicycle safety - a prerequisite to promoting a culture of active transportation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Statistical Modelling of Extreme Rainfall in Taiwan

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    L-F. Chu (Lan-Fen); M.J. McAleer (Michael); C-C. Chang (Ching-Chung)

    2012-01-01

    textabstractIn this paper, the annual maximum daily rainfall data from 1961 to 2010 are modelled for 18 stations in Taiwan. We fit the rainfall data with stationary and non-stationary generalized extreme value distributions (GEV), and estimate their future behaviour based on the best fitting model.

  5. Statistical Modelling of Extreme Rainfall in Taiwan

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    L. Chu (LanFen); M.J. McAleer (Michael); C-H. Chang (Chu-Hsiang)

    2013-01-01

    textabstractIn this paper, the annual maximum daily rainfall data from 1961 to 2010 are modelled for 18 stations in Taiwan. We fit the rainfall data with stationary and non-stationary generalized extreme value distributions (GEV), and estimate their future behaviour based on the best fitting model.

  6. On the Logical Development of Statistical Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1983-12-01

    1978). "Modelos con parametros variables en el analisis de series temporales " Questiio, 4, 2, 75-87. [25] Seal, H. L. (1967). "The historical...example, a classical state-space representation of a simple time series model is: yt = it + ut Ut = *It-I + Ct (2.2) ut and et are independent normal...on its past values is displayed in the structural equation. This approach has been particularly useful in time series models. For example, model (2.2

  7. A Noise Robust Statistical Texture Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hilger, Klaus Baggesen; Stegmann, Mikkel Bille; Larsen, Rasmus

    2002-01-01

    Appearance Models segmentation framework. This is accomplished by augmenting the model with an estimate of the covariance of the noise present in the training data. This results in a more compact model maximising the signal-to-noise ratio, thus favouring subspaces rich on signal, but low on noise......This paper presents a novel approach to the problem of obtaining a low dimensional representation of texture (pixel intensity) variation present in a training set after alignment using a Generalised Procrustes analysis.We extend the conventional analysis of training textures in the Active...

  8. A scan statistic for continuous data based on the normal probability model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huang Lan

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Temporal, spatial and space-time scan statistics are commonly used to detect and evaluate the statistical significance of temporal and/or geographical disease clusters, without any prior assumptions on the location, time period or size of those clusters. Scan statistics are mostly used for count data, such as disease incidence or mortality. Sometimes there is an interest in looking for clusters with respect to a continuous variable, such as lead levels in children or low birth weight. For such continuous data, we present a scan statistic where the likelihood is calculated using the the normal probability model. It may also be used for other distributions, while still maintaining the correct alpha level. In an application of the new method, we look for geographical clusters of low birth weight in New York City.

  9. Statistics

    CERN Document Server

    Hayslett, H T

    1991-01-01

    Statistics covers the basic principles of Statistics. The book starts by tackling the importance and the two kinds of statistics; the presentation of sample data; the definition, illustration and explanation of several measures of location; and the measures of variation. The text then discusses elementary probability, the normal distribution and the normal approximation to the binomial. Testing of statistical hypotheses and tests of hypotheses about the theoretical proportion of successes in a binomial population and about the theoretical mean of a normal population are explained. The text the

  10. 12th Workshop on Stochastic Models, Statistics and Their Applications

    CERN Document Server

    Rafajłowicz, Ewaryst; Szajowski, Krzysztof

    2015-01-01

    This volume presents the latest advances and trends in stochastic models and related statistical procedures. Selected peer-reviewed contributions focus on statistical inference, quality control, change-point analysis and detection, empirical processes, time series analysis, survival analysis and reliability, statistics for stochastic processes, big data in technology and the sciences, statistical genetics, experiment design, and stochastic models in engineering. Stochastic models and related statistical procedures play an important part in furthering our understanding of the challenging problems currently arising in areas of application such as the natural sciences, information technology, engineering, image analysis, genetics, energy and finance, to name but a few. This collection arises from the 12th Workshop on Stochastic Models, Statistics and Their Applications, Wroclaw, Poland.

  11. Materials Informatics: Statistical Modeling in Material Science.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yosipof, Abraham; Shimanovich, Klimentiy; Senderowitz, Hanoch

    2016-12-01

    Material informatics is engaged with the application of informatic principles to materials science in order to assist in the discovery and development of new materials. Central to the field is the application of data mining techniques and in particular machine learning approaches, often referred to as Quantitative Structure Activity Relationship (QSAR) modeling, to derive predictive models for a variety of materials-related "activities". Such models can accelerate the development of new materials with favorable properties and provide insight into the factors governing these properties. Here we provide a comparison between medicinal chemistry/drug design and materials-related QSAR modeling and highlight the importance of developing new, materials-specific descriptors. We survey some of the most recent QSAR models developed in materials science with focus on energetic materials and on solar cells. Finally we present new examples of material-informatic analyses of solar cells libraries produced from metal oxides using combinatorial material synthesis. Different analyses lead to interesting physical insights as well as to the design of new cells with potentially improved photovoltaic parameters. © 2016 Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  12. Introduction to statistical modelling: linear regression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lunt, Mark

    2015-07-01

    In many studies we wish to assess how a range of variables are associated with a particular outcome and also determine the strength of such relationships so that we can begin to understand how these factors relate to each other at a population level. Ultimately, we may also be interested in predicting the outcome from a series of predictive factors available at, say, a routine clinic visit. In a recent article in Rheumatology, Desai et al. did precisely that when they studied the prediction of hip and spine BMD from hand BMD and various demographic, lifestyle, disease and therapy variables in patients with RA. This article aims to introduce the statistical methodology that can be used in such a situation and explain the meaning of some of the terms employed. It will also outline some common pitfalls encountered when performing such analyses. © The Author 2013. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Rheumatology. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  13. A count rate model for PET and its application to an LSO HR PLUS scanner

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moisan, C.; Rogers, J.G.; Douglas, J.L.

    1996-10-01

    We present a count rate model for PET. Considering a standard 20 x 20 cm phantom in the field-of-view of a cylindrical septaless tomograph, the model computes the acceptance to prompt and random events from simple geometric considerations. Dead time factors at all stages of a typical event acquisition architecture are calculated from specified processing clock cycles. Validations of the model's predictions against the measured performances of the ECAT-953B and the EXACT HR PLUS are presented. The model is then used to investigate the benefit of using detectors made of LSO in the EXACT HR PLUS scanner geometry. The results indicate that in replacing BGO by the faster LSO, one can count on an increase of the peak noise-equivalent-count rate by a factor 2.2. This gain will be achieved by using a 5 nsec coincidence window, buckets operating on 128 nsec clock cycle, and front-end data acquisition that can sustain a total rate of 2.9 MHz. (authors)

  14. Latent domain models for statistical machine translation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoàng, C.

    2017-01-01

    A data-driven approach to model translation suffers from the data mismatch problem and demands domain adaptation techniques. Given parallel training data originating from a specific domain, training an MT system on the data would result in a rather suboptimal translation for other domains. But does

  15. Behavioral and statistical models of educational inequality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holm, Anders; Breen, Richard

    2016-01-01

    This paper addresses the question of how students and their families make educational decisions. We describe three types of behavioral model that might underlie decision-making and we show that they have consequences for what decisions are made. Our study thus has policy implications if we wish...

  16. Statistical modelling of fine red wine production

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    María Rosa Castro

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Producing wine is a very important economic activity in the province of San Juan in Argentina; it is therefore most important to predict production regarding the quantity of raw material needed. This work was aimed at obtaining a model relating kilograms of crushed grape to the litres of wine so produced. Such model will be used for predicting precise future values and confidence intervals for determined quantities of crushed grapes. Data from a vineyard in the province of San Juan was thus used in this work. The sampling coefficient of correlation was calculated and a dispersion diagram was then constructed; this indicated a li- neal relationship between the litres of wine obtained and the kilograms of crushed grape. Two lineal models were then adopted and variance analysis was carried out because the data came from normal populations having the same variance. The most appropriate model was obtained from this analysis; it was validated with experimental values, a good approach being obtained.

  17. Statistical models of global Langmuir mixing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Qing; Fox-Kemper, Baylor; Breivik, Øyvind; Webb, Adrean

    2017-05-01

    The effects of Langmuir mixing on the surface ocean mixing may be parameterized by applying an enhancement factor which depends on wave, wind, and ocean state to the turbulent velocity scale in the K-Profile Parameterization. Diagnosing the appropriate enhancement factor online in global climate simulations is readily achieved by coupling with a prognostic wave model, but with significant computational and code development expenses. In this paper, two alternatives that do not require a prognostic wave model, (i) a monthly mean enhancement factor climatology, and (ii) an approximation to the enhancement factor based on the empirical wave spectra, are explored and tested in a global climate model. Both appear to reproduce the Langmuir mixing effects as estimated using a prognostic wave model, with nearly identical and substantial improvements in the simulated mixed layer depth and intermediate water ventilation over control simulations, but significantly less computational cost. Simpler approaches, such as ignoring Langmuir mixing altogether or setting a globally constant Langmuir number, are found to be deficient. Thus, the consequences of Stokes depth and misaligned wind and waves are important.

  18. Sampling, Probability Models and Statistical Reasoning -RE ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    random sampling allows data to be modelled with the help of probability ... g based on different trials to get an estimate of the experimental error. ... research interests lie in the .... if e is indeed the true value of the proportion of defectives in the.

  19. Statistical Model Checking for Product Lines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    ter Beek, Maurice H.; Legay, Axel; Lluch Lafuente, Alberto

    2016-01-01

    average cost of products (in terms of the attributes of the products’ features) and the probability of features to be (un)installed at runtime. The product lines must be modelled in QFLan, which extends the probabilistic feature-oriented language PFLan with novel quantitative constraints among features...

  20. A Statistical Model for Energy Intensity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marjaneh Issapour

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available A promising approach to improve scientific literacy in regards to global warming and climate change is using a simulation as part of a science education course. The simulation needs to employ scientific analysis of actual data from internationally accepted and reputable databases to demonstrate the reality of the current climate change situation. One of the most important criteria for using a simulation in a science education course is the fidelity of the model. The realism of the events and consequences modeled in the simulation is significant as well. Therefore, all underlying equations and algorithms used in the simulation must have real-world scientific basis. The "Energy Choices" simulation is one such simulation. The focus of this paper is the development of a mathematical model for "Energy Intensity" as a part of the overall system dynamics in "Energy Choices" simulation. This model will define the "Energy Intensity" as a function of other independent variables that can be manipulated by users of the simulation. The relationship discovered by this research will be applied to an algorithm in the "Energy Choices" simulation.

  1. Structured Statistical Models of Inductive Reasoning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kemp, Charles; Tenenbaum, Joshua B.

    2009-01-01

    Everyday inductive inferences are often guided by rich background knowledge. Formal models of induction should aim to incorporate this knowledge and should explain how different kinds of knowledge lead to the distinctive patterns of reasoning found in different inductive contexts. This article presents a Bayesian framework that attempts to meet…

  2. Fundamentals of Counting Statistics in Digital PCR: I Just Measured Two Target Copies-What Does It Mean?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tzonev, Svilen

    2018-01-01

    Current commercially available digital PCR (dPCR) systems and assays are capable of detecting individual target molecules with considerable reliability. As tests are developed and validated for use on clinical samples, the need to understand and develop robust statistical analysis routines increases. This chapter covers the fundamental processes and limitations of detecting and reporting on single molecule detection. We cover the basics of quantification of targets and sources of imprecision. We describe the basic test concepts: sensitivity, specificity, limit of blank, limit of detection, and limit of quantification in the context of dPCR. We provide basic guidelines how to determine those, how to choose and interpret the operating point, and what factors may influence overall test performance in practice.

  3. Statistical Analysis and Modelling of Olkiluoto Structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hellae, P.; Vaittinen, T.; Saksa, P.; Nummela, J.

    2004-11-01

    Posiva Oy is carrying out investigations for the disposal of the spent nuclear fuel at the Olkiluoto site in SW Finland. The investigations have focused on the central part of the island. The layout design of the entire repository requires characterization of notably larger areas and must rely at least at the current stage on borehole information from a rather sparse network and on the geophysical soundings providing information outside and between the holes. In this work, the structural data according to the current version of the Olkiluoto bedrock model is analyzed. The bedrock model relies much on the borehole data although results of the seismic surveys and, for example, pumping tests are used in determining the orientation and continuation of the structures. Especially in the analysis, questions related to the frequency of structures and size of the structures are discussed. The structures observed in the boreholes are mainly dipping gently to the southeast. About 9 % of the sample length belongs to structures. The proportion is higher in the upper parts of the rock. The number of fracture and crushed zones seems not to depend greatly on the depth, whereas the hydraulic features concentrate on the depth range above -100 m. Below level -300 m, the hydraulic conductivity occurs in connection of fractured zones. Especially the hydraulic features, but also fracture and crushed zones often occur in groups. The frequency of the structure (area of structures per total volume) is estimated to be of the order of 1/100m. The size of the local structures was estimated by calculating the intersection of the zone to the nearest borehole where the zone has not been detected. Stochastic models using the Fracman software by Golder Associates were generated based on the bedrock model data complemented with the magnetic ground survey data. The seismic surveys (from boreholes KR5, KR13, KR14, and KR19) were used as alternative input data. The generated models were tested by

  4. Modeling statistical properties of written text.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M Angeles Serrano

    Full Text Available Written text is one of the fundamental manifestations of human language, and the study of its universal regularities can give clues about how our brains process information and how we, as a society, organize and share it. Among these regularities, only Zipf's law has been explored in depth. Other basic properties, such as the existence of bursts of rare words in specific documents, have only been studied independently of each other and mainly by descriptive models. As a consequence, there is a lack of understanding of linguistic processes as complex emergent phenomena. Beyond Zipf's law for word frequencies, here we focus on burstiness, Heaps' law describing the sublinear growth of vocabulary size with the length of a document, and the topicality of document collections, which encode correlations within and across documents absent in random null models. We introduce and validate a generative model that explains the simultaneous emergence of all these patterns from simple rules. As a result, we find a connection between the bursty nature of rare words and the topical organization of texts and identify dynamic word ranking and memory across documents as key mechanisms explaining the non trivial organization of written text. Our research can have broad implications and practical applications in computer science, cognitive science and linguistics.

  5. Using observation-level random effects to model overdispersion in count data in ecology and evolution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xavier A. Harrison

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Overdispersion is common in models of count data in ecology and evolutionary biology, and can occur due to missing covariates, non-independent (aggregated data, or an excess frequency of zeroes (zero-inflation. Accounting for overdispersion in such models is vital, as failing to do so can lead to biased parameter estimates, and false conclusions regarding hypotheses of interest. Observation-level random effects (OLRE, where each data point receives a unique level of a random effect that models the extra-Poisson variation present in the data, are commonly employed to cope with overdispersion in count data. However studies investigating the efficacy of observation-level random effects as a means to deal with overdispersion are scarce. Here I use simulations to show that in cases where overdispersion is caused by random extra-Poisson noise, or aggregation in the count data, observation-level random effects yield more accurate parameter estimates compared to when overdispersion is simply ignored. Conversely, OLRE fail to reduce bias in zero-inflated data, and in some cases increase bias at high levels of overdispersion. There was a positive relationship between the magnitude of overdispersion and the degree of bias in parameter estimates. Critically, the simulations reveal that failing to account for overdispersion in mixed models can erroneously inflate measures of explained variance (r2, which may lead to researchers overestimating the predictive power of variables of interest. This work suggests use of observation-level random effects provides a simple and robust means to account for overdispersion in count data, but also that their ability to minimise bias is not uniform across all types of overdispersion and must be applied judiciously.

  6. Probabilities and energies to obtain the counting efficiency of electron-capture nuclides, KLMN model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Casas Galiano, G.; Grau Malonda, A.

    1994-01-01

    An intelligent computer program has been developed to obtain the mathematical formulae to compute the probabilities and reduced energies of the different atomic rearrangement pathways following electron-capture decay. Creation and annihilation operators for Auger and X processes have been introduced. Taking into account the symmetries associated with each process, 262 different pathways were obtained. This model allows us to obtain the influence of the M-electron-capture in the counting efficiency when the atomic number of the nuclide is high

  7. The use of plant models in deep learning: an application to leaf counting in rosette plants

    OpenAIRE

    Ubbens, Jordan; Cieslak, Mikolaj; Prusinkiewicz, Przemyslaw; Stavness, Ian

    2018-01-01

    Deep learning presents many opportunities for image-based plant phenotyping. Here we consider the capability of deep convolutional neural networks to perform the leaf counting task. Deep learning techniques typically require large and diverse datasets to learn generalizable models without providing a priori an engineered algorithm for performing the task. This requirement is challenging, however, for applications in the plant phenotyping field, where available datasets are often small and the...

  8. Advanced data analysis in neuroscience integrating statistical and computational models

    CERN Document Server

    Durstewitz, Daniel

    2017-01-01

    This book is intended for use in advanced graduate courses in statistics / machine learning, as well as for all experimental neuroscientists seeking to understand statistical methods at a deeper level, and theoretical neuroscientists with a limited background in statistics. It reviews almost all areas of applied statistics, from basic statistical estimation and test theory, linear and nonlinear approaches for regression and classification, to model selection and methods for dimensionality reduction, density estimation and unsupervised clustering.  Its focus, however, is linear and nonlinear time series analysis from a dynamical systems perspective, based on which it aims to convey an understanding also of the dynamical mechanisms that could have generated observed time series. Further, it integrates computational modeling of behavioral and neural dynamics with statistical estimation and hypothesis testing. This way computational models in neuroscience are not only explanat ory frameworks, but become powerfu...

  9. Accounting for Zero Inflation of Mussel Parasite Counts Using Discrete Regression Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emel Çankaya

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available In many ecological applications, the absences of species are inevitable due to either detection faults in samples or uninhabitable conditions for their existence, resulting in high number of zero counts or abundance. Usual practice for modelling such data is regression modelling of log(abundance+1 and it is well know that resulting model is inadequate for prediction purposes. New discrete models accounting for zero abundances, namely zero-inflated regression (ZIP and ZINB, Hurdle-Poisson (HP and Hurdle-Negative Binomial (HNB amongst others are widely preferred to the classical regression models. Due to the fact that mussels are one of the economically most important aquatic products of Turkey, the purpose of this study is therefore to examine the performances of these four models in determination of the significant biotic and abiotic factors on the occurrences of Nematopsis legeri parasite harming the existence of Mediterranean mussels (Mytilus galloprovincialis L.. The data collected from the three coastal regions of Sinop city in Turkey showed more than 50% of parasite counts on the average are zero-valued and model comparisons were based on information criterion. The results showed that the probability of the occurrence of this parasite is here best formulated by ZINB or HNB models and influential factors of models were found to be correspondent with ecological differences of the regions.

  10. Statistically Based Morphodynamic Modeling of Tracer Slowdown

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borhani, S.; Ghasemi, A.; Hill, K. M.; Viparelli, E.

    2017-12-01

    Tracer particles are used to study bedload transport in gravel-bed rivers. One of the advantages associated with using of tracer particles is that they allow for direct measures of the entrainment rates and their size distributions. The main issue in large scale studies with tracer particles is the difference between tracer stone short term and long term behavior. This difference is due to the fact that particles undergo vertical mixing or move to less active locations such as bars or even floodplains. For these reasons the average virtual velocity of tracer particle decreases in time, i.e. the tracer slowdown. In summary, tracer slowdown can have a significant impact on the estimation of bedload transport rate or long term dispersal of contaminated sediment. The vast majority of the morphodynamic models that account for the non-uniformity of the bed material (tracer and not tracer, in this case) are based on a discrete description of the alluvial deposit. The deposit is divided in two different regions; the active layer and the substrate. The active layer is a thin layer in the topmost part of the deposit whose particles can interact with the bed material transport. The substrate is the part of the deposit below the active layer. Due to the discrete representation of the alluvial deposit, active layer models are not able to reproduce tracer slowdown. In this study we try to model the slowdown of tracer particles with the continuous Parker-Paola-Leclair morphodynamic framework. This continuous, i.e. not layer-based, framework is based on a stochastic description of the temporal variation of bed surface elevation, and of the elevation specific particle entrainment and deposition. Particle entrainment rates are computed as a function of the flow and sediment characteristics, while particle deposition is estimated with a step length formulation. Here we present one of the first implementation of the continuum framework at laboratory scale, its validation against

  11. Selection of the ''best'' model for converting beta backscatter count readings into thickness measurements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smiriga, N.G.

    1976-01-01

    This report compares two models for converting beta backscatter count readings into thickness measurements. The necessary formulas to be used in an unweighted and weighted regression analysis are listed. The question of whether one should perform a regression analysis using the five available standard thicknesses or whether one should, in addition to these standard thicknesses, use zero as a standard thickness is decided. A weighted regression analysis is compared with an unweighted one for each model. The ''best'' model is selected, and the conclusions of the analysis are presented

  12. Statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Links to sources of cancer-related statistics, including the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) Program, SEER-Medicare datasets, cancer survivor prevalence data, and the Cancer Trends Progress Report.

  13. Antibiotic Resistances in Livestock: A Comparative Approach to Identify an Appropriate Regression Model for Count Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anke Hüls

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Antimicrobial resistance in livestock is a matter of general concern. To develop hygiene measures and methods for resistance prevention and control, epidemiological studies on a population level are needed to detect factors associated with antimicrobial resistance in livestock holdings. In general, regression models are used to describe these relationships between environmental factors and resistance outcome. Besides the study design, the correlation structures of the different outcomes of antibiotic resistance and structural zero measurements on the resistance outcome as well as on the exposure side are challenges for the epidemiological model building process. The use of appropriate regression models that acknowledge these complexities is essential to assure valid epidemiological interpretations. The aims of this paper are (i to explain the model building process comparing several competing models for count data (negative binomial model, quasi-Poisson model, zero-inflated model, and hurdle model and (ii to compare these models using data from a cross-sectional study on antibiotic resistance in animal husbandry. These goals are essential to evaluate which model is most suitable to identify potential prevention measures. The dataset used as an example in our analyses was generated initially to study the prevalence and associated factors for the appearance of cefotaxime-resistant Escherichia coli in 48 German fattening pig farms. For each farm, the outcome was the count of samples with resistant bacteria. There was almost no overdispersion and only moderate evidence of excess zeros in the data. Our analyses show that it is essential to evaluate regression models in studies analyzing the relationship between environmental factors and antibiotic resistances in livestock. After model comparison based on evaluation of model predictions, Akaike information criterion, and Pearson residuals, here the hurdle model was judged to be the most appropriate

  14. Statistical mechanics of the cluster Ising model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smacchia, Pietro; Amico, Luigi; Facchi, Paolo; Fazio, Rosario; Florio, Giuseppe; Pascazio, Saverio; Vedral, Vlatko

    2011-01-01

    We study a Hamiltonian system describing a three-spin-1/2 clusterlike interaction competing with an Ising-like antiferromagnetic interaction. We compute free energy, spin-correlation functions, and entanglement both in the ground and in thermal states. The model undergoes a quantum phase transition between an Ising phase with a nonvanishing magnetization and a cluster phase characterized by a string order. Any two-spin entanglement is found to vanish in both quantum phases because of a nontrivial correlation pattern. Nevertheless, the residual multipartite entanglement is maximal in the cluster phase and dependent on the magnetization in the Ising phase. We study the block entropy at the critical point and calculate the central charge of the system, showing that the criticality of the system is beyond the Ising universality class.

  15. Statistical mechanics of the cluster Ising model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smacchia, Pietro [SISSA - via Bonomea 265, I-34136, Trieste (Italy); Amico, Luigi [CNR-MATIS-IMM and Dipartimento di Fisica e Astronomia Universita di Catania, C/O ed. 10, viale Andrea Doria 6, I-95125 Catania (Italy); Facchi, Paolo [Dipartimento di Matematica and MECENAS, Universita di Bari, I-70125 Bari (Italy); INFN, Sezione di Bari, I-70126 Bari (Italy); Fazio, Rosario [NEST, Scuola Normale Superiore and Istituto Nanoscienze - CNR, 56126 Pisa (Italy); Center for Quantum Technology, National University of Singapore, 117542 Singapore (Singapore); Florio, Giuseppe; Pascazio, Saverio [Dipartimento di Fisica and MECENAS, Universita di Bari, I-70126 Bari (Italy); INFN, Sezione di Bari, I-70126 Bari (Italy); Vedral, Vlatko [Center for Quantum Technology, National University of Singapore, 117542 Singapore (Singapore); Department of Physics, National University of Singapore, 2 Science Drive 3, Singapore 117542 (Singapore); Department of Physics, University of Oxford, Clarendon Laboratory, Oxford, OX1 3PU (United Kingdom)

    2011-08-15

    We study a Hamiltonian system describing a three-spin-1/2 clusterlike interaction competing with an Ising-like antiferromagnetic interaction. We compute free energy, spin-correlation functions, and entanglement both in the ground and in thermal states. The model undergoes a quantum phase transition between an Ising phase with a nonvanishing magnetization and a cluster phase characterized by a string order. Any two-spin entanglement is found to vanish in both quantum phases because of a nontrivial correlation pattern. Nevertheless, the residual multipartite entanglement is maximal in the cluster phase and dependent on the magnetization in the Ising phase. We study the block entropy at the critical point and calculate the central charge of the system, showing that the criticality of the system is beyond the Ising universality class.

  16. Integrating count and detection–nondetection data to model population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zipkin, Elise F.; Rossman, Sam; Yackulic, Charles B.; Wiens, David; Thorson, James T.; Davis, Raymond J.; Grant, Evan H. Campbell

    2017-01-01

    There is increasing need for methods that integrate multiple data types into a single analytical framework as the spatial and temporal scale of ecological research expands. Current work on this topic primarily focuses on combining capture–recapture data from marked individuals with other data types into integrated population models. Yet, studies of species distributions and trends often rely on data from unmarked individuals across broad scales where local abundance and environmental variables may vary. We present a modeling framework for integrating detection–nondetection and count data into a single analysis to estimate population dynamics, abundance, and individual detection probabilities during sampling. Our dynamic population model assumes that site-specific abundance can change over time according to survival of individuals and gains through reproduction and immigration. The observation process for each data type is modeled by assuming that every individual present at a site has an equal probability of being detected during sampling processes. We examine our modeling approach through a series of simulations illustrating the relative value of count vs. detection–nondetection data under a variety of parameter values and survey configurations. We also provide an empirical example of the model by combining long-term detection–nondetection data (1995–2014) with newly collected count data (2015–2016) from a growing population of Barred Owl (Strix varia) in the Pacific Northwest to examine the factors influencing population abundance over time. Our model provides a foundation for incorporating unmarked data within a single framework, even in cases where sampling processes yield different detection probabilities. This approach will be useful for survey design and to researchers interested in incorporating historical or citizen science data into analyses focused on understanding how demographic rates drive population abundance.

  17. Functional summary statistics for the Johnson-Mehl model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Jesper; Ghorbani, Mohammad

    The Johnson-Mehl germination-growth model is a spatio-temporal point process model which among other things have been used for the description of neurotransmitters datasets. However, for such datasets parametric Johnson-Mehl models fitted by maximum likelihood have yet not been evaluated by means...... of functional summary statistics. This paper therefore invents four functional summary statistics adapted to the Johnson-Mehl model, with two of them based on the second-order properties and the other two on the nuclei-boundary distances for the associated Johnson-Mehl tessellation. The functional summary...... statistics theoretical properties are investigated, non-parametric estimators are suggested, and their usefulness for model checking is examined in a simulation study. The functional summary statistics are also used for checking fitted parametric Johnson-Mehl models for a neurotransmitters dataset....

  18. Statistical modelling in biostatistics and bioinformatics selected papers

    CERN Document Server

    Peng, Defen

    2014-01-01

    This book presents selected papers on statistical model development related mainly to the fields of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics. The coverage of the material falls squarely into the following categories: (a) Survival analysis and multivariate survival analysis, (b) Time series and longitudinal data analysis, (c) Statistical model development and (d) Applied statistical modelling. Innovations in statistical modelling are presented throughout each of the four areas, with some intriguing new ideas on hierarchical generalized non-linear models and on frailty models with structural dispersion, just to mention two examples. The contributors include distinguished international statisticians such as Philip Hougaard, John Hinde, Il Do Ha, Roger Payne and Alessandra Durio, among others, as well as promising newcomers. Some of the contributions have come from researchers working in the BIO-SI research programme on Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, centred on the Universities of Limerick and Galway in Ireland and fu...

  19. Perturbative Power Counting, Lowest-Index Operators and Their Renormalization in Standard Model Effective Field Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liao, Yi; Ma, Xiao-Dong

    2018-03-01

    We study two aspects of higher dimensional operators in standard model effective field theory. We first introduce a perturbative power counting rule for the entries in the anomalous dimension matrix of operators with equal mass dimension. The power counting is determined by the number of loops and the difference of the indices of the two operators involved, which in turn is defined by assuming that all terms in the standard model Lagrangian have an equal perturbative power. Then we show that the operators with the lowest index are unique at each mass dimension d, i.e., (H † H) d/2 for even d ≥ 4, and (LT∈ H)C(LT∈ H) T (H † H)(d-5)/2 for odd d ≥ 5. Here H, L are the Higgs and lepton doublet, and ∈, C the antisymmetric matrix of rank two and the charge conjugation matrix, respectively. The renormalization group running of these operators can be studied separately from other operators of equal mass dimension at the leading order in power counting. We compute their anomalous dimensions at one loop for general d and find that they are enhanced quadratically in d due to combinatorics. We also make connections with classification of operators in terms of their holomorphic and anti-holomorphic weights. Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos. 11025525, 11575089, and by the CAS Center for Excellence in Particle Physics (CCEPP)

  20. The use of plant models in deep learning: an application to leaf counting in rosette plants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ubbens, Jordan; Cieslak, Mikolaj; Prusinkiewicz, Przemyslaw; Stavness, Ian

    2018-01-01

    Deep learning presents many opportunities for image-based plant phenotyping. Here we consider the capability of deep convolutional neural networks to perform the leaf counting task. Deep learning techniques typically require large and diverse datasets to learn generalizable models without providing a priori an engineered algorithm for performing the task. This requirement is challenging, however, for applications in the plant phenotyping field, where available datasets are often small and the costs associated with generating new data are high. In this work we propose a new method for augmenting plant phenotyping datasets using rendered images of synthetic plants. We demonstrate that the use of high-quality 3D synthetic plants to augment a dataset can improve performance on the leaf counting task. We also show that the ability of the model to generate an arbitrary distribution of phenotypes mitigates the problem of dataset shift when training and testing on different datasets. Finally, we show that real and synthetic plants are significantly interchangeable when training a neural network on the leaf counting task.

  1. Abelian embedding formulation of the Stueckelberg model and its power-counting renormalizable extension

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Quadri, Andrea

    2006-01-01

    We elucidate the geometry of the polynomial formulation of the non-Abelian Stueckelberg mechanism. We show that a natural off-shell nilpotent Becchi-Rouet-Stora-Tyutin (BRST) differential exists allowing to implement the constraint on the σ field by means of BRST techniques. This is achieved by extending the ghost sector by an additional U(1) factor (Abelian embedding). An important consequence is that a further BRST-invariant but not gauge-invariant mass term can be written for the non-Abelian gauge fields. As all versions of the Stueckelberg theory, also the Abelian embedding formulation yields a nonpower-counting renormalizable theory in D=4. We then derive its natural power-counting renormalizable extension and show that the physical spectrum contains a physical massive scalar particle. Physical unitarity is also established. This model implements the spontaneous symmetry breaking in the Abelian embedding formalism

  2. Statistical limitations in functional neuroimaging. I. Non-inferential methods and statistical models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petersson, K M; Nichols, T E; Poline, J B; Holmes, A P

    1999-01-01

    Functional neuroimaging (FNI) provides experimental access to the intact living brain making it possible to study higher cognitive functions in humans. In this review and in a companion paper in this issue, we discuss some common methods used to analyse FNI data. The emphasis in both papers is on assumptions and limitations of the methods reviewed. There are several methods available to analyse FNI data indicating that none is optimal for all purposes. In order to make optimal use of the methods available it is important to know the limits of applicability. For the interpretation of FNI results it is also important to take into account the assumptions, approximations and inherent limitations of the methods used. This paper gives a brief overview over some non-inferential descriptive methods and common statistical models used in FNI. Issues relating to the complex problem of model selection are discussed. In general, proper model selection is a necessary prerequisite for the validity of the subsequent statistical inference. The non-inferential section describes methods that, combined with inspection of parameter estimates and other simple measures, can aid in the process of model selection and verification of assumptions. The section on statistical models covers approaches to global normalization and some aspects of univariate, multivariate, and Bayesian models. Finally, approaches to functional connectivity and effective connectivity are discussed. In the companion paper we review issues related to signal detection and statistical inference. PMID:10466149

  3. Decoding and modelling of time series count data using Poisson hidden Markov model and Markov ordinal logistic regression models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sebastian, Tunny; Jeyaseelan, Visalakshi; Jeyaseelan, Lakshmanan; Anandan, Shalini; George, Sebastian; Bangdiwala, Shrikant I

    2018-01-01

    Hidden Markov models are stochastic models in which the observations are assumed to follow a mixture distribution, but the parameters of the components are governed by a Markov chain which is unobservable. The issues related to the estimation of Poisson-hidden Markov models in which the observations are coming from mixture of Poisson distributions and the parameters of the component Poisson distributions are governed by an m-state Markov chain with an unknown transition probability matrix are explained here. These methods were applied to the data on Vibrio cholerae counts reported every month for 11-year span at Christian Medical College, Vellore, India. Using Viterbi algorithm, the best estimate of the state sequence was obtained and hence the transition probability matrix. The mean passage time between the states were estimated. The 95% confidence interval for the mean passage time was estimated via Monte Carlo simulation. The three hidden states of the estimated Markov chain are labelled as 'Low', 'Moderate' and 'High' with the mean counts of 1.4, 6.6 and 20.2 and the estimated average duration of stay of 3, 3 and 4 months, respectively. Environmental risk factors were studied using Markov ordinal logistic regression analysis. No significant association was found between disease severity levels and climate components.

  4. Statistics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2005-01-01

    For the years 2004 and 2005 the figures shown in the tables of Energy Review are partly preliminary. The annual statistics published in Energy Review are presented in more detail in a publication called Energy Statistics that comes out yearly. Energy Statistics also includes historical time-series over a longer period of time (see e.g. Energy Statistics, Statistics Finland, Helsinki 2004.) The applied energy units and conversion coefficients are shown in the back cover of the Review. Explanatory notes to the statistical tables can be found after tables and figures. The figures presents: Changes in GDP, energy consumption and electricity consumption, Carbon dioxide emissions from fossile fuels use, Coal consumption, Consumption of natural gas, Peat consumption, Domestic oil deliveries, Import prices of oil, Consumer prices of principal oil products, Fuel prices in heat production, Fuel prices in electricity production, Price of electricity by type of consumer, Average monthly spot prices at the Nord pool power exchange, Total energy consumption by source and CO 2 -emissions, Supplies and total consumption of electricity GWh, Energy imports by country of origin in January-June 2003, Energy exports by recipient country in January-June 2003, Consumer prices of liquid fuels, Consumer prices of hard coal, natural gas and indigenous fuels, Price of natural gas by type of consumer, Price of electricity by type of consumer, Price of district heating by type of consumer, Excise taxes, value added taxes and fiscal charges and fees included in consumer prices of some energy sources and Energy taxes, precautionary stock fees and oil pollution fees

  5. Mixed deterministic statistical modelling of regional ozone air pollution

    KAUST Repository

    Kalenderski, Stoitchko

    2011-03-17

    We develop a physically motivated statistical model for regional ozone air pollution by separating the ground-level pollutant concentration field into three components, namely: transport, local production and large-scale mean trend mostly dominated by emission rates. The model is novel in the field of environmental spatial statistics in that it is a combined deterministic-statistical model, which gives a new perspective to the modelling of air pollution. The model is presented in a Bayesian hierarchical formalism, and explicitly accounts for advection of pollutants, using the advection equation. We apply the model to a specific case of regional ozone pollution-the Lower Fraser valley of British Columbia, Canada. As a predictive tool, we demonstrate that the model vastly outperforms existing, simpler modelling approaches. Our study highlights the importance of simultaneously considering different aspects of an air pollution problem as well as taking into account the physical bases that govern the processes of interest. © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd..

  6. A Model of Statistics Performance Based on Achievement Goal Theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bandalos, Deborah L.; Finney, Sara J.; Geske, Jenenne A.

    2003-01-01

    Tests a model of statistics performance based on achievement goal theory. Both learning and performance goals affected achievement indirectly through study strategies, self-efficacy, and test anxiety. Implications of these findings for teaching and learning statistics are discussed. (Contains 47 references, 3 tables, 3 figures, and 1 appendix.)…

  7. Kolmogorov complexity, pseudorandom generators and statistical models testing

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Šindelář, Jan; Boček, Pavel

    2002-01-01

    Roč. 38, č. 6 (2002), s. 747-759 ISSN 0023-5954 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA102/99/1564 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z1075907 Keywords : Kolmogorov complexity * pseudorandom generators * statistical models testing Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 0.341, year: 2002

  8. Estimating spatial and temporal components of variation in count data using negative binomial mixed models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Irwin, Brian J.; Wagner, Tyler; Bence, James R.; Kepler, Megan V.; Liu, Weihai; Hayes, Daniel B.

    2013-01-01

    Partitioning total variability into its component temporal and spatial sources is a powerful way to better understand time series and elucidate trends. The data available for such analyses of fish and other populations are usually nonnegative integer counts of the number of organisms, often dominated by many low values with few observations of relatively high abundance. These characteristics are not well approximated by the Gaussian distribution. We present a detailed description of a negative binomial mixed-model framework that can be used to model count data and quantify temporal and spatial variability. We applied these models to data from four fishery-independent surveys of Walleyes Sander vitreus across the Great Lakes basin. Specifically, we fitted models to gill-net catches from Wisconsin waters of Lake Superior; Oneida Lake, New York; Saginaw Bay in Lake Huron, Michigan; and Ohio waters of Lake Erie. These long-term monitoring surveys varied in overall sampling intensity, the total catch of Walleyes, and the proportion of zero catches. Parameter estimation included the negative binomial scaling parameter, and we quantified the random effects as the variations among gill-net sampling sites, the variations among sampled years, and site × year interactions. This framework (i.e., the application of a mixed model appropriate for count data in a variance-partitioning context) represents a flexible approach that has implications for monitoring programs (e.g., trend detection) and for examining the potential of individual variance components to serve as response metrics to large-scale anthropogenic perturbations or ecological changes.

  9. Statistics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    For the year 2000, part of the figures shown in the tables of the Energy Review are preliminary or estimated. The annual statistics of the Energy Review appear in more detail from the publication Energiatilastot - Energy Statistics issued annually, which also includes historical time series over a longer period (see e.g. Energiatilastot 1999, Statistics Finland, Helsinki 2000, ISSN 0785-3165). The inside of the Review's back cover shows the energy units and the conversion coefficients used for them. Explanatory notes to the statistical tables can be found after tables and figures. The figures presents: Changes in the volume of GNP and energy consumption, Changes in the volume of GNP and electricity, Coal consumption, Natural gas consumption, Peat consumption, Domestic oil deliveries, Import prices of oil, Consumer prices of principal oil products, Fuel prices for heat production, Fuel prices for electricity production, Carbon dioxide emissions from the use of fossil fuels, Total energy consumption by source and CO 2 -emissions, Electricity supply, Energy imports by country of origin in 2000, Energy exports by recipient country in 2000, Consumer prices of liquid fuels, Consumer prices of hard coal, natural gas and indigenous fuels, Average electricity price by type of consumer, Price of district heating by type of consumer, Excise taxes, value added taxes and fiscal charges and fees included in consumer prices of some energy sources and Energy taxes and precautionary stock fees on oil products

  10. Statistics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2000-01-01

    For the year 1999 and 2000, part of the figures shown in the tables of the Energy Review are preliminary or estimated. The annual statistics of the Energy Review appear in more detail from the publication Energiatilastot - Energy Statistics issued annually, which also includes historical time series over a longer period (see e.g., Energiatilastot 1998, Statistics Finland, Helsinki 1999, ISSN 0785-3165). The inside of the Review's back cover shows the energy units and the conversion coefficients used for them. Explanatory notes to the statistical tables can be found after tables and figures. The figures presents: Changes in the volume of GNP and energy consumption, Changes in the volume of GNP and electricity, Coal consumption, Natural gas consumption, Peat consumption, Domestic oil deliveries, Import prices of oil, Consumer prices of principal oil products, Fuel prices for heat production, Fuel prices for electricity production, Carbon dioxide emissions, Total energy consumption by source and CO 2 -emissions, Electricity supply, Energy imports by country of origin in January-March 2000, Energy exports by recipient country in January-March 2000, Consumer prices of liquid fuels, Consumer prices of hard coal, natural gas and indigenous fuels, Average electricity price by type of consumer, Price of district heating by type of consumer, Excise taxes, value added taxes and fiscal charges and fees included in consumer prices of some energy sources and Energy taxes and precautionary stock fees on oil products

  11. Statistics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1999-01-01

    For the year 1998 and the year 1999, part of the figures shown in the tables of the Energy Review are preliminary or estimated. The annual statistics of the Energy Review appear in more detail from the publication Energiatilastot - Energy Statistics issued annually, which also includes historical time series over a longer period (see e.g. Energiatilastot 1998, Statistics Finland, Helsinki 1999, ISSN 0785-3165). The inside of the Review's back cover shows the energy units and the conversion coefficients used for them. Explanatory notes to the statistical tables can be found after tables and figures. The figures presents: Changes in the volume of GNP and energy consumption, Changes in the volume of GNP and electricity, Coal consumption, Natural gas consumption, Peat consumption, Domestic oil deliveries, Import prices of oil, Consumer prices of principal oil products, Fuel prices for heat production, Fuel prices for electricity production, Carbon dioxide emissions, Total energy consumption by source and CO 2 -emissions, Electricity supply, Energy imports by country of origin in January-June 1999, Energy exports by recipient country in January-June 1999, Consumer prices of liquid fuels, Consumer prices of hard coal, natural gas and indigenous fuels, Average electricity price by type of consumer, Price of district heating by type of consumer, Excise taxes, value added taxes and fiscal charges and fees included in consumer prices of some energy sources and Energy taxes and precautionary stock fees on oil products

  12. Galaxy modelling. II. Multi-wavelength faint counts from a semi-analytic model of galaxy formation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Devriendt, J. E. G.; Guiderdoni, B.

    2000-11-01

    This paper predicts self-consistent faint galaxy counts from the UV to the submm wavelength range. The stardust spectral energy distributions described in Devriendt et al. \\citeparyear{DGS99} (Paper I) are embedded within the explicit cosmological framework of a simple semi-analytic model of galaxy formation and evolution. We begin with a description of the non-dissipative and dissipative collapses of primordial perturbations, and plug in standard recipes for star formation, stellar evolution and feedback. We also model the absorption of starlight by dust and its re-processing in the IR and submm. We then build a class of models which capture the luminosity budget of the universe through faint galaxy counts and redshift distributions in the whole wavelength range spanned by our spectra. In contrast with a rather stable behaviour in the optical and even in the far-IR, the submm counts are dramatically sensitive to variations in the cosmological parameters and changes in the star formation history. Faint submm counts are more easily accommodated within an open universe with a low value of Omega_0 , or a flat universe with a non-zero cosmological constant. We confirm the suggestion of Guiderdoni et al. \\citeparyear{GHBM98} that matching the current multi-wavelength data requires a population of heavily-extinguished, massive galaxies with large star formation rates ( ~ 500 M_sun yr-1) at intermediate and high redshift (z >= 1.5). Such a population of objects probably is the consequence of an increase of interaction and merging activity at high redshift, but a realistic quantitative description can only be obtained through more detailed modelling of such processes. This study illustrates the implementation of multi-wavelength spectra into a semi-analytic model. In spite of its simplicity, it already provides fair fits of the current data of faint counts, and a physically motivated way of interpolating and extrapolating these data to other wavelengths and fainter flux

  13. Range walk error correction and modeling on Pseudo-random photon counting system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Shanshan; Chen, Qian; He, Weiji

    2017-08-01

    Signal to noise ratio and depth accuracy are modeled for the pseudo-random ranging system with two random processes. The theoretical results, developed herein, capture the effects of code length and signal energy fluctuation are shown to agree with Monte Carlo simulation measurements. First, the SNR is developed as a function of the code length. Using Geiger-mode avalanche photodiodes (GMAPDs), longer code length is proven to reduce the noise effect and improve SNR. Second, the Cramer-Rao lower bound on range accuracy is derived to justify that longer code length can bring better range accuracy. Combined with the SNR model and CRLB model, it is manifested that the range accuracy can be improved by increasing the code length to reduce the noise-induced error. Third, the Cramer-Rao lower bound on range accuracy is shown to converge to the previously published theories and introduce the Gauss range walk model to range accuracy. Experimental tests also converge to the presented boundary model in this paper. It has been proven that depth error caused by the fluctuation of the number of detected photon counts in the laser echo pulse leads to the depth drift of Time Point Spread Function (TPSF). Finally, numerical fitting function is used to determine the relationship between the depth error and the photon counting ratio. Depth error due to different echo energy is calibrated so that the corrected depth accuracy is improved to 1cm.

  14. Scaling local species-habitat relations to the larger landscape with a hierarchical spatial count model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thogmartin, W.E.; Knutson, M.G.

    2007-01-01

    Much of what is known about avian species-habitat relations has been derived from studies of birds at local scales. It is entirely unclear whether the relations observed at these scales translate to the larger landscape in a predictable linear fashion. We derived habitat models and mapped predicted abundances for three forest bird species of eastern North America using bird counts, environmental variables, and hierarchical models applied at three spatial scales. Our purpose was to understand habitat associations at multiple spatial scales and create predictive abundance maps for purposes of conservation planning at a landscape scale given the constraint that the variables used in this exercise were derived from local-level studies. Our models indicated a substantial influence of landscape context for all species, many of which were counter to reported associations at finer spatial extents. We found land cover composition provided the greatest contribution to the relative explained variance in counts for all three species; spatial structure was second in importance. No single spatial scale dominated any model, indicating that these species are responding to factors at multiple spatial scales. For purposes of conservation planning, areas of predicted high abundance should be investigated to evaluate the conservation potential of the landscape in their general vicinity. In addition, the models and spatial patterns of abundance among species suggest locations where conservation actions may benefit more than one species. ?? 2006 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

  15. Use of Poisson spatiotemporal regression models for the Brazilian Amazon Forest: malaria count data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jorge Alberto Achcar

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: Malaria is a serious problem in the Brazilian Amazon region, and the detection of possible risk factors could be of great interest for public health authorities. The objective of this article was to investigate the association between environmental variables and the yearly registers of malaria in the Amazon region using Bayesian spatiotemporal methods. METHODS: We used Poisson spatiotemporal regression models to analyze the Brazilian Amazon forest malaria count for the period from 1999 to 2008. In this study, we included some covariates that could be important in the yearly prediction of malaria, such as deforestation rate. We obtained the inferences using a Bayesian approach and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC methods to simulate samples for the joint posterior distribution of interest. The discrimination of different models was also discussed. RESULTS: The model proposed here suggests that deforestation rate, the number of inhabitants per km², and the human development index (HDI are important in the prediction of malaria cases. CONCLUSIONS: It is possible to conclude that human development, population growth, deforestation, and their associated ecological alterations are conducive to increasing malaria risk. We conclude that the use of Poisson regression models that capture the spatial and temporal effects under the Bayesian paradigm is a good strategy for modeling malaria counts.

  16. Use of Poisson spatiotemporal regression models for the Brazilian Amazon Forest: malaria count data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Achcar, Jorge Alberto; Martinez, Edson Zangiacomi; Souza, Aparecida Doniseti Pires de; Tachibana, Vilma Mayumi; Flores, Edilson Ferreira

    2011-01-01

    Malaria is a serious problem in the Brazilian Amazon region, and the detection of possible risk factors could be of great interest for public health authorities. The objective of this article was to investigate the association between environmental variables and the yearly registers of malaria in the Amazon region using bayesian spatiotemporal methods. We used Poisson spatiotemporal regression models to analyze the Brazilian Amazon forest malaria count for the period from 1999 to 2008. In this study, we included some covariates that could be important in the yearly prediction of malaria, such as deforestation rate. We obtained the inferences using a bayesian approach and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to simulate samples for the joint posterior distribution of interest. The discrimination of different models was also discussed. The model proposed here suggests that deforestation rate, the number of inhabitants per km², and the human development index (HDI) are important in the prediction of malaria cases. It is possible to conclude that human development, population growth, deforestation, and their associated ecological alterations are conducive to increasing malaria risk. We conclude that the use of Poisson regression models that capture the spatial and temporal effects under the bayesian paradigm is a good strategy for modeling malaria counts.

  17. Improving statistical reasoning theoretical models and practical implications

    CERN Document Server

    Sedlmeier, Peter

    1999-01-01

    This book focuses on how statistical reasoning works and on training programs that can exploit people''s natural cognitive capabilities to improve their statistical reasoning. Training programs that take into account findings from evolutionary psychology and instructional theory are shown to have substantially larger effects that are more stable over time than previous training regimens. The theoretical implications are traced in a neural network model of human performance on statistical reasoning problems. This book apppeals to judgment and decision making researchers and other cognitive scientists, as well as to teachers of statistics and probabilistic reasoning.

  18. A new approach for handling longitudinal count data with zero-inflation and overdispersion: poisson geometric process model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wan, Wai-Yin; Chan, Jennifer S K

    2009-08-01

    For time series of count data, correlated measurements, clustering as well as excessive zeros occur simultaneously in biomedical applications. Ignoring such effects might contribute to misleading treatment outcomes. A generalized mixture Poisson geometric process (GMPGP) model and a zero-altered mixture Poisson geometric process (ZMPGP) model are developed from the geometric process model, which was originally developed for modelling positive continuous data and was extended to handle count data. These models are motivated by evaluating the trend development of new tumour counts for bladder cancer patients as well as by identifying useful covariates which affect the count level. The models are implemented using Bayesian method with Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms and are assessed using deviance information criterion (DIC).

  19. Statistical validation of normal tissue complication probability models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Xu, Cheng-Jian; van der Schaaf, Arjen; van t Veld, Aart; Langendijk, Johannes A.; Schilstra, Cornelis

    2012-01-01

    PURPOSE: To investigate the applicability and value of double cross-validation and permutation tests as established statistical approaches in the validation of normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) models. METHODS AND MATERIALS: A penalized regression method, LASSO (least absolute shrinkage

  20. Some remarks on the statistical model of heavy ion collisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koch, V.

    2003-01-01

    This contribution is an attempt to assess what can be learned from the remarkable success of this statistical model in describing ratios of particle abundances in ultra-relativistic heavy ion collisions

  1. Eigenfunction statistics for Anderson model with Hölder continuous ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The Institute of Mathematical Sciences, Taramani, Chennai 600 113, India ... Anderson model; Hölder continuous measure; Poisson statistics. ...... [4] Combes J-M, Hislop P D and Klopp F, An optimal Wegner estimate and its application to.

  2. A no extensive statistical model for the nucleon structure function

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Trevisan, Luis A.; Mirez, Carlos

    2013-01-01

    We studied an application of nonextensive thermodynamics to describe the structure function of nucleon, in a model where the usual Fermi-Dirac and Bose-Einstein energy distribution were replaced by the equivalent functions of the q-statistical. The parameters of the model are given by an effective temperature T, the q parameter (from Tsallis statistics), and two chemical potentials given by the corresponding up (u) and down (d) quark normalization in the nucleon.

  3. Statistical models and NMR analysis of polymer microstructure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Statistical models can be used in conjunction with NMR spectroscopy to study polymer microstructure and polymerization mechanisms. Thus, Bernoullian, Markovian, and enantiomorphic-site models are well known. Many additional models have been formulated over the years for additional situations. Typica...

  4. The Fractal Characteristics of the Landslides by Box-Counting and P-A Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Zhiwang; Zhou, Fangfang; Cao, Hao

    2018-01-01

    The landslide is a kind of complicated phenomenon with nonlinear inter-reaction. The traditional theories and methods are difficult to study the uncertainty characteristics of dynamic evolution of the landslides. This paper applies box-counting and P-A model to study the fractal characteristics of geometric shape and spatial distribution of the landslide hazards in the study area from Badong county to Zigui county in TGP reservoir region. The data obtained from the study area shows power-law distributions of geometric shape and spatial distribution of the landslides, and thus reveals some fractal or self-similarity properties. The fractral dimensions DAP of the spatial distribution of landslides by P-A model shows that DAP of the western landslides in the study area are smaller than those of the east, which shows that the geometry of the eastern landslide is more irregular and complicated than the western ones. The results show box-counting model and P-A model can be used to characterize the fractal characteristics of geometric shape and spatial distribution of the landslides.

  5. Statistics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-01-01

    For the year 2002, part of the figures shown in the tables of the Energy Review are partly preliminary. The annual statistics of the Energy Review also includes historical time-series over a longer period (see e.g. Energiatilastot 2001, Statistics Finland, Helsinki 2002). The applied energy units and conversion coefficients are shown in the inside back cover of the Review. Explanatory notes to the statistical tables can be found after tables and figures. The figures presents: Changes in GDP, energy consumption and electricity consumption, Carbon dioxide emissions from fossile fuels use, Coal consumption, Consumption of natural gas, Peat consumption, Domestic oil deliveries, Import prices of oil, Consumer prices of principal oil products, Fuel prices in heat production, Fuel prices in electricity production, Price of electricity by type of consumer, Average monthly spot prices at the Nord pool power exchange, Total energy consumption by source and CO 2 -emissions, Supply and total consumption of electricity GWh, Energy imports by country of origin in January-June 2003, Energy exports by recipient country in January-June 2003, Consumer prices of liquid fuels, Consumer prices of hard coal, natural gas and indigenous fuels, Price of natural gas by type of consumer, Price of electricity by type of consumer, Price of district heating by type of consumer, Excise taxes, value added taxes and fiscal charges and fees included in consumer prices of some energy sources and Excise taxes, precautionary stock fees on oil pollution fees on energy products

  6. Statistics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2004-01-01

    For the year 2003 and 2004, the figures shown in the tables of the Energy Review are partly preliminary. The annual statistics of the Energy Review also includes historical time-series over a longer period (see e.g. Energiatilastot, Statistics Finland, Helsinki 2003, ISSN 0785-3165). The applied energy units and conversion coefficients are shown in the inside back cover of the Review. Explanatory notes to the statistical tables can be found after tables and figures. The figures presents: Changes in GDP, energy consumption and electricity consumption, Carbon dioxide emissions from fossile fuels use, Coal consumption, Consumption of natural gas, Peat consumption, Domestic oil deliveries, Import prices of oil, Consumer prices of principal oil products, Fuel prices in heat production, Fuel prices in electricity production, Price of electricity by type of consumer, Average monthly spot prices at the Nord pool power exchange, Total energy consumption by source and CO 2 -emissions, Supplies and total consumption of electricity GWh, Energy imports by country of origin in January-March 2004, Energy exports by recipient country in January-March 2004, Consumer prices of liquid fuels, Consumer prices of hard coal, natural gas and indigenous fuels, Price of natural gas by type of consumer, Price of electricity by type of consumer, Price of district heating by type of consumer, Excise taxes, value added taxes and fiscal charges and fees included in consumer prices of some energy sources and Excise taxes, precautionary stock fees on oil pollution fees

  7. Statistics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2000-01-01

    For the year 1999 and 2000, part of the figures shown in the tables of the Energy Review are preliminary or estimated. The annual statistics of the Energy also includes historical time series over a longer period (see e.g., Energiatilastot 1999, Statistics Finland, Helsinki 2000, ISSN 0785-3165). The inside of the Review's back cover shows the energy units and the conversion coefficients used for them. Explanatory notes to the statistical tables can be found after tables and figures. The figures presents: Changes in the volume of GNP and energy consumption, Changes in the volume of GNP and electricity, Coal consumption, Natural gas consumption, Peat consumption, Domestic oil deliveries, Import prices of oil, Consumer prices of principal oil products, Fuel prices for heat production, Fuel prices for electricity production, Carbon dioxide emissions, Total energy consumption by source and CO 2 -emissions, Electricity supply, Energy imports by country of origin in January-June 2000, Energy exports by recipient country in January-June 2000, Consumer prices of liquid fuels, Consumer prices of hard coal, natural gas and indigenous fuels, Average electricity price by type of consumer, Price of district heating by type of consumer, Excise taxes, value added taxes and fiscal charges and fees included in consumer prices of some energy sources and Energy taxes and precautionary stock fees on oil products

  8. What's statistical about learning? Insights from modelling statistical learning as a set of memory processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thiessen, Erik D

    2017-01-05

    Statistical learning has been studied in a variety of different tasks, including word segmentation, object identification, category learning, artificial grammar learning and serial reaction time tasks (e.g. Saffran et al. 1996 Science 274: , 1926-1928; Orban et al. 2008 Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 105: , 2745-2750; Thiessen & Yee 2010 Child Development 81: , 1287-1303; Saffran 2002 Journal of Memory and Language 47: , 172-196; Misyak & Christiansen 2012 Language Learning 62: , 302-331). The difference among these tasks raises questions about whether they all depend on the same kinds of underlying processes and computations, or whether they are tapping into different underlying mechanisms. Prior theoretical approaches to statistical learning have often tried to explain or model learning in a single task. However, in many cases these approaches appear inadequate to explain performance in multiple tasks. For example, explaining word segmentation via the computation of sequential statistics (such as transitional probability) provides little insight into the nature of sensitivity to regularities among simultaneously presented features. In this article, we will present a formal computational approach that we believe is a good candidate to provide a unifying framework to explore and explain learning in a wide variety of statistical learning tasks. This framework suggests that statistical learning arises from a set of processes that are inherent in memory systems, including activation, interference, integration of information and forgetting (e.g. Perruchet & Vinter 1998 Journal of Memory and Language 39: , 246-263; Thiessen et al. 2013 Psychological Bulletin 139: , 792-814). From this perspective, statistical learning does not involve explicit computation of statistics, but rather the extraction of elements of the input into memory traces, and subsequent integration across those memory traces that emphasize consistent information (Thiessen and Pavlik

  9. TH-CD-207B-07: Noise Modeling of Single Photon Avalanche Diode (SPAD) for Photon Counting CT Applications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cheng, Z; Zheng, X; Deen, J; Peng, H [McMaster University, Hamilton, ON (Canada); Xing, L [Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA (United States)

    2016-06-15

    Purpose: Silicon photomultiplier (SiPM) has recently emerged as a promising photodetector for biomedical imaging applications. Due to its high multiplication gain (comparable to PMT), fast timing, low cost and compactness, it is considered a good candidate for photon counting CT. Dark noise is a limiting factor which impacts both energy resolution and detection dynamic range. Our goal is to develop a comprehensive model for noise sources for SiPM sensors. Methods: The physical parameters used in this work were based upon a test SPAD fabricated in 130nm CMOS process. The SPAD uses an n+/p-well junction, which is isolated from the p-substrate by a deep n-well junction. Inter-avalanche time measurement was used to record the time interval between two adjacent avalanche pulses. After collecting 1×106 counts, the histogram was obtained and multiple exponential fitting process was used to extract the lifetime associated with the traps within the bandgap. Results: At room temperature, the breakdown voltage of the SPAD is ∼11.4V and shows a temperature coefficient of 7.7mV/°C. The dark noise of SPAD increases with both the excess biasing voltage and temperature. The primary dark counts from the model were validated against the measurement results. A maximum relative error of 8.7% is observed at 20 °C with an excess voltage of 0.5V. The probabilities of after-pulsing are found to be dependent of both temperature and excess voltage. With 0.5V excess voltage, the after-pulsing probability is 63.5% at - 30 °C and drops to ∼6.6% at 40 °C. Conclusion: A comprehensive noise model for SPAD sensor was proposed. The model takes into account of static, dynamic and statistical behavior of SPADs. We believe that this is the first SPAD circuit simulation model that includes the band-to-band tunneling dark noise contribution and temporal dependence of the after-pulsing probability.

  10. Probabilities and energies to obtain the counting efficiency of electron-capture nuclides. KLMN model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Galiano, G.; Grau, A.

    1994-01-01

    An intelligent computer program has been developed to obtain the mathematical formulae to compute the probabilities and reduced energies of the different atomic rearrangement pathways following electron-capture decay. Creation and annihilation operators for Auger and X processes have been introduced. Taking into account the symmetries associated with each process, 262 different pathways were obtained. This model allows us to obtain the influence of the M-electro capture in the counting efficiency when the atomic number of the nuclide is high. (Author)

  11. An accurate behavioral model for single-photon avalanche diode statistical performance simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Yue; Zhao, Tingchen; Li, Ding

    2018-01-01

    An accurate behavioral model is presented to simulate important statistical performance of single-photon avalanche diodes (SPADs), such as dark count and after-pulsing noise. The derived simulation model takes into account all important generation mechanisms of the two kinds of noise. For the first time, thermal agitation, trap-assisted tunneling and band-to-band tunneling mechanisms are simultaneously incorporated in the simulation model to evaluate dark count behavior of SPADs fabricated in deep sub-micron CMOS technology. Meanwhile, a complete carrier trapping and de-trapping process is considered in afterpulsing model and a simple analytical expression is derived to estimate after-pulsing probability. In particular, the key model parameters of avalanche triggering probability and electric field dependence of excess bias voltage are extracted from Geiger-mode TCAD simulation and this behavioral simulation model doesn't include any empirical parameters. The developed SPAD model is implemented in Verilog-A behavioral hardware description language and successfully operated on commercial Cadence Spectre simulator, showing good universality and compatibility. The model simulation results are in a good accordance with the test data, validating high simulation accuracy.

  12. Models for probability and statistical inference theory and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Stapleton, James H

    2007-01-01

    This concise, yet thorough, book is enhanced with simulations and graphs to build the intuition of readersModels for Probability and Statistical Inference was written over a five-year period and serves as a comprehensive treatment of the fundamentals of probability and statistical inference. With detailed theoretical coverage found throughout the book, readers acquire the fundamentals needed to advance to more specialized topics, such as sampling, linear models, design of experiments, statistical computing, survival analysis, and bootstrapping.Ideal as a textbook for a two-semester sequence on probability and statistical inference, early chapters provide coverage on probability and include discussions of: discrete models and random variables; discrete distributions including binomial, hypergeometric, geometric, and Poisson; continuous, normal, gamma, and conditional distributions; and limit theory. Since limit theory is usually the most difficult topic for readers to master, the author thoroughly discusses mo...

  13. RBC count

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... by kidney disease) RBC destruction ( hemolysis ) due to transfusion, blood vessel injury, or other cause Leukemia Malnutrition Bone ... slight risk any time the skin is broken) Alternative Names Erythrocyte count; Red blood cell count; Anemia - RBC count Images Blood test ...

  14. Performance in population models for count data, part II: a new SAEM algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Savic, Radojka; Lavielle, Marc

    2009-01-01

    Analysis of count data from clinical trials using mixed effect analysis has recently become widely used. However, algorithms available for the parameter estimation, including LAPLACE and Gaussian quadrature (GQ), are associated with certain limitations, including bias in parameter estimates and the long analysis runtime. The stochastic approximation expectation maximization (SAEM) algorithm has proven to be a very efficient and powerful tool in the analysis of continuous data. The aim of this study was to implement and investigate the performance of a new SAEM algorithm for application to count data. A new SAEM algorithm was implemented in MATLAB for estimation of both, parameters and the Fisher information matrix. Stochastic Monte Carlo simulations followed by re-estimation were performed according to scenarios used in previous studies (part I) to investigate properties of alternative algorithms (1). A single scenario was used to explore six probability distribution models. For parameter estimation, the relative bias was less than 0.92% and 4.13 % for fixed and random effects, for all models studied including ones accounting for over- or under-dispersion. Empirical and estimated relative standard errors were similar, with distance between them being <1.7 % for all explored scenarios. The longest CPU time was 95s for parameter estimation and 56s for SE estimation. The SAEM algorithm was extended for analysis of count data. It provides accurate estimates of both, parameters and standard errors. The estimation is significantly faster compared to LAPLACE and GQ. The algorithm is implemented in Monolix 3.1, (beta-version available in July 2009). PMID:19680795

  15. Right-sizing statistical models for longitudinal data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Phillip K; Steinley, Douglas; Jackson, Kristina M

    2015-12-01

    Arguments are proposed that researchers using longitudinal data should consider more and less complex statistical model alternatives to their initially chosen techniques in an effort to "right-size" the model to the data at hand. Such model comparisons may alert researchers who use poorly fitting, overly parsimonious models to more complex, better-fitting alternatives and, alternatively, may identify more parsimonious alternatives to overly complex (and perhaps empirically underidentified and/or less powerful) statistical models. A general framework is proposed for considering (often nested) relationships between a variety of psychometric and growth curve models. A 3-step approach is proposed in which models are evaluated based on the number and patterning of variance components prior to selection of better-fitting growth models that explain both mean and variation-covariation patterns. The orthogonal free curve slope intercept (FCSI) growth model is considered a general model that includes, as special cases, many models, including the factor mean (FM) model (McArdle & Epstein, 1987), McDonald's (1967) linearly constrained factor model, hierarchical linear models (HLMs), repeated-measures multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA), and the linear slope intercept (linearSI) growth model. The FCSI model, in turn, is nested within the Tuckerized factor model. The approach is illustrated by comparing alternative models in a longitudinal study of children's vocabulary and by comparing several candidate parametric growth and chronometric models in a Monte Carlo study. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

  16. How Managed Care Affects Medicaid Utilization : A Synthetic Difference-in-Difference Zero-Inflated Count Model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Freund, D.A.; Kniesner, T.J.; LoSasso, A.T.

    1996-01-01

    We develop a synthetic difference-in-differences statistical design to apply to experimental data for adult women living in Hennepin County, Minnesota, to estimate the impact of Medicaid managed care on various modes of medical care use.Because the outcomes of interest are utilization counts with

  17. A Stochastic Fractional Dynamics Model of Rainfall Statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kundu, Prasun; Travis, James

    2013-04-01

    Rainfall varies in space and time in a highly irregular manner and is described naturally in terms of a stochastic process. A characteristic feature of rainfall statistics is that they depend strongly on the space-time scales over which rain data are averaged. A spectral model of precipitation has been developed based on a stochastic differential equation of fractional order for the point rain rate, that allows a concise description of the second moment statistics of rain at any prescribed space-time averaging scale. The model is designed to faithfully reflect the scale dependence and is thus capable of providing a unified description of the statistics of both radar and rain gauge data. The underlying dynamical equation can be expressed in terms of space-time derivatives of fractional orders that are adjusted together with other model parameters to fit the data. The form of the resulting spectrum gives the model adequate flexibility to capture the subtle interplay between the spatial and temporal scales of variability of rain but strongly constrains the predicted statistical behavior as a function of the averaging length and times scales. The main restriction is the assumption that the statistics of the precipitation field is spatially homogeneous and isotropic and stationary in time. We test the model with radar and gauge data collected contemporaneously at the NASA TRMM ground validation sites located near Melbourne, Florida and in Kwajalein Atoll, Marshall Islands in the tropical Pacific. We estimate the parameters by tuning them to the second moment statistics of the radar data. The model predictions are then found to fit the second moment statistics of the gauge data reasonably well without any further adjustment. Some data sets containing periods of non-stationary behavior that involves occasional anomalously correlated rain events, present a challenge for the model.

  18. Variability aware compact model characterization for statistical circuit design optimization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiao, Ying; Qian, Kun; Spanos, Costas J.

    2012-03-01

    Variability modeling at the compact transistor model level can enable statistically optimized designs in view of limitations imposed by the fabrication technology. In this work we propose an efficient variabilityaware compact model characterization methodology based on the linear propagation of variance. Hierarchical spatial variability patterns of selected compact model parameters are directly calculated from transistor array test structures. This methodology has been implemented and tested using transistor I-V measurements and the EKV-EPFL compact model. Calculation results compare well to full-wafer direct model parameter extractions. Further studies are done on the proper selection of both compact model parameters and electrical measurement metrics used in the method.

  19. Linear mixed models a practical guide using statistical software

    CERN Document Server

    West, Brady T; Galecki, Andrzej T

    2006-01-01

    Simplifying the often confusing array of software programs for fitting linear mixed models (LMMs), Linear Mixed Models: A Practical Guide Using Statistical Software provides a basic introduction to primary concepts, notation, software implementation, model interpretation, and visualization of clustered and longitudinal data. This easy-to-navigate reference details the use of procedures for fitting LMMs in five popular statistical software packages: SAS, SPSS, Stata, R/S-plus, and HLM. The authors introduce basic theoretical concepts, present a heuristic approach to fitting LMMs based on bo

  20. Speech emotion recognition based on statistical pitch model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Zhiping; ZHAO Li; ZOU Cairong

    2006-01-01

    A modified Parzen-window method, which keep high resolution in low frequencies and keep smoothness in high frequencies, is proposed to obtain statistical model. Then, a gender classification method utilizing the statistical model is proposed, which have a 98% accuracy of gender classification while long sentence is dealt with. By separation the male voice and female voice, the mean and standard deviation of speech training samples with different emotion are used to create the corresponding emotion models. Then the Bhattacharyya distance between the test sample and statistical models of pitch, are utilized for emotion recognition in speech.The normalization of pitch for the male voice and female voice are also considered, in order to illustrate them into a uniform space. Finally, the speech emotion recognition experiment based on K Nearest Neighbor shows that, the correct rate of 81% is achieved, where it is only 73.85%if the traditional parameters are utilized.

  1. Multiple commodities in statistical microeconomics: Model and market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baaquie, Belal E.; Yu, Miao; Du, Xin

    2016-11-01

    A statistical generalization of microeconomics has been made in Baaquie (2013). In Baaquie et al. (2015), the market behavior of single commodities was analyzed and it was shown that market data provides strong support for the statistical microeconomic description of commodity prices. The case of multiple commodities is studied and a parsimonious generalization of the single commodity model is made for the multiple commodities case. Market data shows that the generalization can accurately model the simultaneous correlation functions of up to four commodities. To accurately model five or more commodities, further terms have to be included in the model. This study shows that the statistical microeconomics approach is a comprehensive and complete formulation of microeconomics, and which is independent to the mainstream formulation of microeconomics.

  2. Adaptive Maneuvering Frequency Method of Current Statistical Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Wei Sun; Yongjian Yang

    2017-01-01

    Current statistical model(CSM) has a good performance in maneuvering target tracking. However, the fixed maneuvering frequency will deteriorate the tracking results, such as a serious dynamic delay, a slowly converging speedy and a limited precision when using Kalman filter(KF) algorithm. In this study, a new current statistical model and a new Kalman filter are proposed to improve the performance of maneuvering target tracking. The new model which employs innovation dominated subjection function to adaptively adjust maneuvering frequency has a better performance in step maneuvering target tracking, while a fluctuant phenomenon appears. As far as this problem is concerned, a new adaptive fading Kalman filter is proposed as well. In the new Kalman filter, the prediction values are amended in time by setting judgment and amendment rules,so that tracking precision and fluctuant phenomenon of the new current statistical model are improved. The results of simulation indicate the effectiveness of the new algorithm and the practical guiding significance.

  3. Modelling diversity in building occupant behaviour: a novel statistical approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Haldi, Frédéric; Calì, Davide; Andersen, Rune Korsholm

    2016-01-01

    We propose an advanced modelling framework to predict the scope and effects of behavioural diversity regarding building occupant actions on window openings, shading devices and lighting. We develop a statistical approach based on generalised linear mixed models to account for the longitudinal nat...

  4. A classical statistical model of heavy ion collisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schmidt, R.; Teichert, J.

    1980-01-01

    The use of the computer code TRAJEC which represents the numerical realization of a classical statistical model for heavy ion collisions is described. The code calculates the results of a classical friction model as well as various multi-differential cross sections for heavy ion collisions. INPUT and OUTPUT information of the code are described. Two examples of data sets are given [ru

  5. On an uncorrelated jet model with Bose-Einstein statistics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bilic, N.; Dadic, I.; Martinis, M.

    1978-01-01

    Starting from the density of states of an ideal Bose-Einstein gas, an uncorrelated jet model with Bose-Einstein statistics has been formulated. The transition to continuum is based on the Touschek invariant measure. It has been shown that in this model average multiplicity increases logarithmically with total energy, while the inclusive distribution shows ln s violation of scaling. (author)

  6. Complex Data Modeling and Computationally Intensive Statistical Methods

    CERN Document Server

    Mantovan, Pietro

    2010-01-01

    The last years have seen the advent and development of many devices able to record and store an always increasing amount of complex and high dimensional data; 3D images generated by medical scanners or satellite remote sensing, DNA microarrays, real time financial data, system control datasets. The analysis of this data poses new challenging problems and requires the development of novel statistical models and computational methods, fueling many fascinating and fast growing research areas of modern statistics. The book offers a wide variety of statistical methods and is addressed to statistici

  7. Validation of statistical models for creep rupture by parametric analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bolton, J., E-mail: john.bolton@uwclub.net [65, Fisher Ave., Rugby, Warks CV22 5HW (United Kingdom)

    2012-01-15

    Statistical analysis is an efficient method for the optimisation of any candidate mathematical model of creep rupture data, and for the comparative ranking of competing models. However, when a series of candidate models has been examined and the best of the series has been identified, there is no statistical criterion to determine whether a yet more accurate model might be devised. Hence there remains some uncertainty that the best of any series examined is sufficiently accurate to be considered reliable as a basis for extrapolation. This paper proposes that models should be validated primarily by parametric graphical comparison to rupture data and rupture gradient data. It proposes that no mathematical model should be considered reliable for extrapolation unless the visible divergence between model and data is so small as to leave no apparent scope for further reduction. This study is based on the data for a 12% Cr alloy steel used in BS PD6605:1998 to exemplify its recommended statistical analysis procedure. The models considered in this paper include a) a relatively simple model, b) the PD6605 recommended model and c) a more accurate model of somewhat greater complexity. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The paper discusses the validation of creep rupture models derived from statistical analysis. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer It demonstrates that models can be satisfactorily validated by a visual-graphic comparison of models to data. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The method proposed utilises test data both as conventional rupture stress and as rupture stress gradient. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The approach is shown to be more reliable than a well-established and widely used method (BS PD6605).

  8. Statistical Models for Tornado Climatology: Long and Short-Term Views.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elsner, James B; Jagger, Thomas H; Fricker, Tyler

    2016-01-01

    This paper estimates regional tornado risk from records of past events using statistical models. First, a spatial model is fit to the tornado counts aggregated in counties with terms that control for changes in observational practices over time. Results provide a long-term view of risk that delineates the main tornado corridors in the United States where the expected annual rate exceeds two tornadoes per 10,000 square km. A few counties in the Texas Panhandle and central Kansas have annual rates that exceed four tornadoes per 10,000 square km. Refitting the model after removing the least damaging tornadoes from the data (EF0) produces a similar map but with the greatest tornado risk shifted south and eastward. Second, a space-time model is fit to the counts aggregated in raster cells with terms that control for changes in climate factors. Results provide a short-term view of risk. The short-term view identifies a shift of tornado activity away from the Ohio Valley under El Niño conditions and away from the Southeast under positive North Atlantic oscillation conditions. The combined predictor effects on the local rates is quantified by fitting the model after leaving out the year to be predicted from the data. The models provide state-of-the-art views of tornado risk that can be used by government agencies, the insurance industry, and the general public.

  9. Understanding and forecasting polar stratospheric variability with statistical models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Blume

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available The variability of the north-polar stratospheric vortex is a prominent aspect of the middle atmosphere. This work investigates a wide class of statistical models with respect to their ability to model geopotential and temperature anomalies, representing variability in the polar stratosphere. Four partly nonstationary, nonlinear models are assessed: linear discriminant analysis (LDA; a cluster method based on finite elements (FEM-VARX; a neural network, namely the multi-layer perceptron (MLP; and support vector regression (SVR. These methods model time series by incorporating all significant external factors simultaneously, including ENSO, QBO, the solar cycle, volcanoes, to then quantify their statistical importance. We show that variability in reanalysis data from 1980 to 2005 is successfully modeled. The period from 2005 to 2011 can be hindcasted to a certain extent, where MLP performs significantly better than the remaining models. However, variability remains that cannot be statistically hindcasted within the current framework, such as the unexpected major warming in January 2009. Finally, the statistical model with the best generalization performance is used to predict a winter 2011/12 with warm and weak vortex conditions. A vortex breakdown is predicted for late January, early February 2012.

  10. Statistical Validation of Engineering and Scientific Models: Background

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hills, Richard G.; Trucano, Timothy G.

    1999-01-01

    A tutorial is presented discussing the basic issues associated with propagation of uncertainty analysis and statistical validation of engineering and scientific models. The propagation of uncertainty tutorial illustrates the use of the sensitivity method and the Monte Carlo method to evaluate the uncertainty in predictions for linear and nonlinear models. Four example applications are presented; a linear model, a model for the behavior of a damped spring-mass system, a transient thermal conduction model, and a nonlinear transient convective-diffusive model based on Burger's equation. Correlated and uncorrelated model input parameters are considered. The model validation tutorial builds on the material presented in the propagation of uncertainty tutoriaI and uses the damp spring-mass system as the example application. The validation tutorial illustrates several concepts associated with the application of statistical inference to test model predictions against experimental observations. Several validation methods are presented including error band based, multivariate, sum of squares of residuals, and optimization methods. After completion of the tutorial, a survey of statistical model validation literature is presented and recommendations for future work are made

  11. Statistical Validation of Normal Tissue Complication Probability Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xu Chengjian, E-mail: c.j.xu@umcg.nl [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Groningen, University Medical Center Groningen, Groningen (Netherlands); Schaaf, Arjen van der; Veld, Aart A. van' t; Langendijk, Johannes A. [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Groningen, University Medical Center Groningen, Groningen (Netherlands); Schilstra, Cornelis [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Groningen, University Medical Center Groningen, Groningen (Netherlands); Radiotherapy Institute Friesland, Leeuwarden (Netherlands)

    2012-09-01

    Purpose: To investigate the applicability and value of double cross-validation and permutation tests as established statistical approaches in the validation of normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) models. Methods and Materials: A penalized regression method, LASSO (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator), was used to build NTCP models for xerostomia after radiation therapy treatment of head-and-neck cancer. Model assessment was based on the likelihood function and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Results: Repeated double cross-validation showed the uncertainty and instability of the NTCP models and indicated that the statistical significance of model performance can be obtained by permutation testing. Conclusion: Repeated double cross-validation and permutation tests are recommended to validate NTCP models before clinical use.

  12. Statistical validation of normal tissue complication probability models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Cheng-Jian; van der Schaaf, Arjen; Van't Veld, Aart A; Langendijk, Johannes A; Schilstra, Cornelis

    2012-09-01

    To investigate the applicability and value of double cross-validation and permutation tests as established statistical approaches in the validation of normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) models. A penalized regression method, LASSO (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator), was used to build NTCP models for xerostomia after radiation therapy treatment of head-and-neck cancer. Model assessment was based on the likelihood function and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Repeated double cross-validation showed the uncertainty and instability of the NTCP models and indicated that the statistical significance of model performance can be obtained by permutation testing. Repeated double cross-validation and permutation tests are recommended to validate NTCP models before clinical use. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. Shell model in large spaces and statistical spectroscopy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kota, V.K.B.

    1996-01-01

    For many nuclear structure problems of current interest it is essential to deal with shell model in large spaces. For this, three different approaches are now in use and two of them are: (i) the conventional shell model diagonalization approach but taking into account new advances in computer technology; (ii) the shell model Monte Carlo method. A brief overview of these two methods is given. Large space shell model studies raise fundamental questions regarding the information content of the shell model spectrum of complex nuclei. This led to the third approach- the statistical spectroscopy methods. The principles of statistical spectroscopy have their basis in nuclear quantum chaos and they are described (which are substantiated by large scale shell model calculations) in some detail. (author)

  14. Computationally efficient statistical differential equation modeling using homogenization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hooten, Mevin B.; Garlick, Martha J.; Powell, James A.

    2013-01-01

    Statistical models using partial differential equations (PDEs) to describe dynamically evolving natural systems are appearing in the scientific literature with some regularity in recent years. Often such studies seek to characterize the dynamics of temporal or spatio-temporal phenomena such as invasive species, consumer-resource interactions, community evolution, and resource selection. Specifically, in the spatial setting, data are often available at varying spatial and temporal scales. Additionally, the necessary numerical integration of a PDE may be computationally infeasible over the spatial support of interest. We present an approach to impose computationally advantageous changes of support in statistical implementations of PDE models and demonstrate its utility through simulation using a form of PDE known as “ecological diffusion.” We also apply a statistical ecological diffusion model to a data set involving the spread of mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) in Idaho, USA.

  15. Growth Curve Models and Applications : Indian Statistical Institute

    CERN Document Server

    2017-01-01

    Growth curve models in longitudinal studies are widely used to model population size, body height, biomass, fungal growth, and other variables in the biological sciences, but these statistical methods for modeling growth curves and analyzing longitudinal data also extend to general statistics, economics, public health, demographics, epidemiology, SQC, sociology, nano-biotechnology, fluid mechanics, and other applied areas.   There is no one-size-fits-all approach to growth measurement. The selected papers in this volume build on presentations from the GCM workshop held at the Indian Statistical Institute, Giridih, on March 28-29, 2016. They represent recent trends in GCM research on different subject areas, both theoretical and applied. This book includes tools and possibilities for further work through new techniques and modification of existing ones. The volume includes original studies, theoretical findings and case studies from a wide range of app lied work, and these contributions have been externally r...

  16. Statistical modelling for recurrent events: an application to sports injuries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ullah, Shahid; Gabbett, Tim J; Finch, Caroline F

    2014-09-01

    Injuries are often recurrent, with subsequent injuries influenced by previous occurrences and hence correlation between events needs to be taken into account when analysing such data. This paper compares five different survival models (Cox proportional hazards (CoxPH) model and the following generalisations to recurrent event data: Andersen-Gill (A-G), frailty, Wei-Lin-Weissfeld total time (WLW-TT) marginal, Prentice-Williams-Peterson gap time (PWP-GT) conditional models) for the analysis of recurrent injury data. Empirical evaluation and comparison of different models were performed using model selection criteria and goodness-of-fit statistics. Simulation studies assessed the size and power of each model fit. The modelling approach is demonstrated through direct application to Australian National Rugby League recurrent injury data collected over the 2008 playing season. Of the 35 players analysed, 14 (40%) players had more than 1 injury and 47 contact injuries were sustained over 29 matches. The CoxPH model provided the poorest fit to the recurrent sports injury data. The fit was improved with the A-G and frailty models, compared to WLW-TT and PWP-GT models. Despite little difference in model fit between the A-G and frailty models, in the interest of fewer statistical assumptions it is recommended that, where relevant, future studies involving modelling of recurrent sports injury data use the frailty model in preference to the CoxPH model or its other generalisations. The paper provides a rationale for future statistical modelling approaches for recurrent sports injury. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  17. Conceptualizations of Personality Disorders with the Five Factor Model-Count and Empathy Traits

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kajonius, Petri J.; Dåderman, Anna M.

    2017-01-01

    Previous research has long advocated that emotional and behavioral disorders are related to general personality traits, such as the Five Factor Model (FFM). The addition of section III in the latest "Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders" (DSM) recommends that extremity in personality traits together with maladaptive…

  18. Statistical Model of the 2001 Czech Census for Interactive Presentation

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Grim, Jiří; Hora, Jan; Boček, Pavel; Somol, Petr; Pudil, Pavel

    Vol. 26, č. 4 (2010), s. 1-23 ISSN 0282-423X R&D Projects: GA ČR GA102/07/1594; GA MŠk 1M0572 Grant - others:GA MŠk(CZ) 2C06019 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : Interactive statistical model * census data presentation * distribution mixtures * data modeling * EM algorithm * incomplete data * data reproduction accuracy * data mining Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 0.492, year: 2010 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2010/RO/grim-0350513.pdf

  19. The Statistical Modeling of the Trends Concerning the Romanian Population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriela OPAIT

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper reflects the statistical modeling concerning the resident population in Romania, respectively the total of the romanian population, through by means of the „Least Squares Method”. Any country it develops by increasing of the population, respectively of the workforce, which is a factor of influence for the growth of the Gross Domestic Product (G.D.P.. The „Least Squares Method” represents a statistical technique for to determine the trend line of the best fit concerning a model.

  20. Applied systems ecology: models, data, and statistical methods

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eberhardt, L L

    1976-01-01

    In this report, systems ecology is largely equated to mathematical or computer simulation modelling. The need for models in ecology stems from the necessity to have an integrative device for the diversity of ecological data, much of which is observational, rather than experimental, as well as from the present lack of a theoretical structure for ecology. Different objectives in applied studies require specialized methods. The best predictive devices may be regression equations, often non-linear in form, extracted from much more detailed models. A variety of statistical aspects of modelling, including sampling, are discussed. Several aspects of population dynamics and food-chain kinetics are described, and it is suggested that the two presently separated approaches should be combined into a single theoretical framework. It is concluded that future efforts in systems ecology should emphasize actual data and statistical methods, as well as modelling.

  1. Analyzing sickness absence with statistical models for survival data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Karl Bang; Andersen, Per Kragh; Smith-Hansen, Lars

    2007-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: Sickness absence is the outcome in many epidemiologic studies and is often based on summary measures such as the number of sickness absences per year. In this study the use of modern statistical methods was examined by making better use of the available information. Since sickness...... absence data deal with events occurring over time, the use of statistical models for survival data has been reviewed, and the use of frailty models has been proposed for the analysis of such data. METHODS: Three methods for analyzing data on sickness absences were compared using a simulation study...... involving the following: (i) Poisson regression using a single outcome variable (number of sickness absences), (ii) analysis of time to first event using the Cox proportional hazards model, and (iii) frailty models, which are random effects proportional hazards models. Data from a study of the relation...

  2. A Review of Modeling Bioelectrochemical Systems: Engineering and Statistical Aspects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shuai Luo

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Bioelectrochemical systems (BES are promising technologies to convert organic compounds in wastewater to electrical energy through a series of complex physical-chemical, biological and electrochemical processes. Representative BES such as microbial fuel cells (MFCs have been studied and advanced for energy recovery. Substantial experimental and modeling efforts have been made for investigating the processes involved in electricity generation toward the improvement of the BES performance for practical applications. However, there are many parameters that will potentially affect these processes, thereby making the optimization of system performance hard to be achieved. Mathematical models, including engineering models and statistical models, are powerful tools to help understand the interactions among the parameters in BES and perform optimization of BES configuration/operation. This review paper aims to introduce and discuss the recent developments of BES modeling from engineering and statistical aspects, including analysis on the model structure, description of application cases and sensitivity analysis of various parameters. It is expected to serves as a compass for integrating the engineering and statistical modeling strategies to improve model accuracy for BES development.

  3. New robust statistical procedures for the polytomous logistic regression models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castilla, Elena; Ghosh, Abhik; Martin, Nirian; Pardo, Leandro

    2018-05-17

    This article derives a new family of estimators, namely the minimum density power divergence estimators, as a robust generalization of the maximum likelihood estimator for the polytomous logistic regression model. Based on these estimators, a family of Wald-type test statistics for linear hypotheses is introduced. Robustness properties of both the proposed estimators and the test statistics are theoretically studied through the classical influence function analysis. Appropriate real life examples are presented to justify the requirement of suitable robust statistical procedures in place of the likelihood based inference for the polytomous logistic regression model. The validity of the theoretical results established in the article are further confirmed empirically through suitable simulation studies. Finally, an approach for the data-driven selection of the robustness tuning parameter is proposed with empirical justifications. © 2018, The International Biometric Society.

  4. Simple classical model for Fano statistics in radiation detectors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jordan, David V. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, National Security Division - Radiological and Chemical Sciences Group PO Box 999, Richland, WA 99352 (United States)], E-mail: David.Jordan@pnl.gov; Renholds, Andrea S.; Jaffe, John E.; Anderson, Kevin K.; Rene Corrales, L.; Peurrung, Anthony J. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, National Security Division - Radiological and Chemical Sciences Group PO Box 999, Richland, WA 99352 (United States)

    2008-02-01

    A simple classical model that captures the essential statistics of energy partitioning processes involved in the creation of information carriers (ICs) in radiation detectors is presented. The model pictures IC formation from a fixed amount of deposited energy in terms of the statistically analogous process of successively sampling water from a large, finite-volume container ('bathtub') with a small dipping implement ('shot or whiskey glass'). The model exhibits sub-Poisson variance in the distribution of the number of ICs generated (the 'Fano effect'). Elementary statistical analysis of the model clarifies the role of energy conservation in producing the Fano effect and yields Fano's prescription for computing the relative variance of the IC number distribution in terms of the mean and variance of the underlying, single-IC energy distribution. The partitioning model is applied to the development of the impact ionization cascade in semiconductor radiation detectors. It is shown that, in tandem with simple assumptions regarding the distribution of energies required to create an (electron, hole) pair, the model yields an energy-independent Fano factor of 0.083, in accord with the lower end of the range of literature values reported for silicon and high-purity germanium. The utility of this simple picture as a diagnostic tool for guiding or constraining more detailed, 'microscopic' physical models of detector material response to ionizing radiation is discussed.

  5. Development of 3D statistical mandible models for cephalometric measurements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Sung Goo; Yi, Won Jin; Hwang, Soon Jung; Choi, Soon Chul; Lee, Sam Sun; Heo, Min Suk; Huh, Kyung Hoe; Kim, Tae Il; Hong, Helen; Yoo, Ji Hyun

    2012-01-01

    The aim of this study was to provide sex-matched three-dimensional (3D) statistical shape models of the mandible, which would provide cephalometric parameters for 3D treatment planning and cephalometric measurements in orthognathic surgery. The subjects used to create the 3D shape models of the mandible included 23 males and 23 females. The mandibles were segmented semi-automatically from 3D facial CT images. Each individual mandible shape was reconstructed as a 3D surface model, which was parameterized to establish correspondence between different individual surfaces. The principal component analysis (PCA) applied to all mandible shapes produced a mean model and characteristic models of variation. The cephalometric parameters were measured directly from the mean models to evaluate the 3D shape models. The means of the measured parameters were compared with those from other conventional studies. The male and female 3D statistical mean models were developed from 23 individual mandibles, respectively. The male and female characteristic shapes of variation produced by PCA showed a large variability included in the individual mandibles. The cephalometric measurements from the developed models were very close to those from some conventional studies. We described the construction of 3D mandibular shape models and presented the application of the 3D mandibular template in cephalometric measurements. Optimal reference models determined from variations produced by PCA could be used for craniofacial patients with various types of skeletal shape.

  6. Development of 3D statistical mandible models for cephalometric measurements

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Sung Goo; Yi, Won Jin; Hwang, Soon Jung; Choi, Soon Chul; Lee, Sam Sun; Heo, Min Suk; Huh, Kyung Hoe; Kim, Tae Il [School of Dentistry, Seoul National University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Hong, Helen; Yoo, Ji Hyun [Division of Multimedia Engineering, Seoul Women' s University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2012-09-15

    The aim of this study was to provide sex-matched three-dimensional (3D) statistical shape models of the mandible, which would provide cephalometric parameters for 3D treatment planning and cephalometric measurements in orthognathic surgery. The subjects used to create the 3D shape models of the mandible included 23 males and 23 females. The mandibles were segmented semi-automatically from 3D facial CT images. Each individual mandible shape was reconstructed as a 3D surface model, which was parameterized to establish correspondence between different individual surfaces. The principal component analysis (PCA) applied to all mandible shapes produced a mean model and characteristic models of variation. The cephalometric parameters were measured directly from the mean models to evaluate the 3D shape models. The means of the measured parameters were compared with those from other conventional studies. The male and female 3D statistical mean models were developed from 23 individual mandibles, respectively. The male and female characteristic shapes of variation produced by PCA showed a large variability included in the individual mandibles. The cephalometric measurements from the developed models were very close to those from some conventional studies. We described the construction of 3D mandibular shape models and presented the application of the 3D mandibular template in cephalometric measurements. Optimal reference models determined from variations produced by PCA could be used for craniofacial patients with various types of skeletal shape.

  7. Specific count model for investing the related factors of cost of GERD and functional dyspepsia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abadi, Alireza; Chaibakhsh, Samira; Safaee, Azadeh; Moghimi-Dehkordi, Bijan

    2013-01-01

    Aim The purpose of this study is to analyze the cost of GERD and functional dyspepsia for investing its related factors. Background Gastro-oesophageal reflux disease GERD and dyspepsia are the most common symptoms of gastrointestinal disorders. Recent studies showed high prevalence and variety of clinical presentation of these two symptoms imposed enormous economic burden to the society. Cost data that related to economics burden have specific characteristics. So this kind of data needs to specific models. Poisson regression (PR) and negative binomial regression (NB) are the models that were used for analyzing cost data in this paper. Patients and methods This study designed as a cross-sectional household survey from May 2006 to December 2007 on a random sample of individual in the Tehran province, Iran to find the prevalence of gastrointestinal symptoms and disorders and its related factors. The Cost in each item was counted. PR and NB were carried out to the data respectively. Likelihood ratio test was performed for comparison between models. Also Log likelihood, Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) were used to compare performance of the models. Results According to Likelihood ratio test and all three criterions that we used to compare performance of the models, NB was the best model for analyzing this cost data. Sex, age and insurance statues were being significant. Conclusion PR and NB models were carried out for this data and according the results improved fit of the NB model over PR, it clearly indicates that over-dispersion is involved due to unobserved heterogeneity and/or clustering. NB model in cost data more appropriate fit than PR. PMID:24834282

  8. Statistical sampling and modelling for cork oak and eucalyptus stands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Paulo, M.J.

    2002-01-01

    This thesis focuses on the use of modern statistical methods to solve problems on sampling, optimal cutting time and agricultural modelling in Portuguese cork oak and eucalyptus stands. The results are contained in five chapters that have been submitted for publication

  9. Two-dimensional models in statistical mechanics and field theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koberle, R.

    1980-01-01

    Several features of two-dimensional models in statistical mechanics and Field theory, such as, lattice quantum chromodynamics, Z(N), Gross-Neveu and CP N-1 are discussed. The problems of confinement and dynamical mass generation are also analyzed. (L.C.) [pt

  10. Statistical Modeling of Energy Production by Photovoltaic Farms

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Brabec, Marek; Pelikán, Emil; Krč, Pavel; Eben, Kryštof; Musílek, P.

    2011-01-01

    Roč. 5, č. 9 (2011), s. 785-793 ISSN 1934-8975 Grant - others:GA AV ČR(CZ) M100300904 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10300504 Keywords : electrical energy * solar energy * numerical weather prediction model * nonparametric regression * beta regression Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research

  11. Model selection for contingency tables with algebraic statistics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Krampe, A.; Kuhnt, S.; Gibilisco, P.; Riccimagno, E.; Rogantin, M.P.; Wynn, H.P.

    2009-01-01

    Goodness-of-fit tests based on chi-square approximations are commonly used in the analysis of contingency tables. Results from algebraic statistics combined with MCMC methods provide alternatives to the chi-square approximation. However, within a model selection procedure usually a large number of

  12. Syntactic discriminative language model rerankers for statistical machine translation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Carter, S.; Monz, C.

    2011-01-01

    This article describes a method that successfully exploits syntactic features for n-best translation candidate reranking using perceptrons. We motivate the utility of syntax by demonstrating the superior performance of parsers over n-gram language models in differentiating between Statistical

  13. Using statistical compatibility to derive advanced probabilistic fatigue models

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Fernández-Canteli, A.; Castillo, E.; López-Aenlle, M.; Seitl, Stanislav

    2010-01-01

    Roč. 2, č. 1 (2010), s. 1131-1140 E-ISSN 1877-7058. [Fatigue 2010. Praha, 06.06.2010-11.06.2010] Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z20410507 Keywords : Fatigue models * Statistical compatibility * Functional equations Subject RIV: JL - Materials Fatigue, Friction Mechanics

  14. Statistical properties of the nuclear shell-model Hamiltonian

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dias, H.; Hussein, M.S.; Oliveira, N.A. de

    1986-01-01

    The statistical properties of realistic nuclear shell-model Hamiltonian are investigated in sd-shell nuclei. The probability distribution of the basic-vector amplitude is calculated and compared with the Porter-Thomas distribution. Relevance of the results to the calculation of the giant resonance mixing parameter is pointed out. (Author) [pt

  15. Statistical shape model with random walks for inner ear segmentation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pujadas, Esmeralda Ruiz; Kjer, Hans Martin; Piella, Gemma

    2016-01-01

    is required. We propose a new framework for segmentation of micro-CT cochlear images using random walks combined with a statistical shape model (SSM). The SSM allows us to constrain the less contrasted areas and ensures valid inner ear shape outputs. Additionally, a topology preservation method is proposed...

  16. Hierarchical modelling for the environmental sciences statistical methods and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Clark, James S

    2006-01-01

    New statistical tools are changing the way in which scientists analyze and interpret data and models. Hierarchical Bayes and Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods for analysis provide a consistent framework for inference and prediction where information is heterogeneous and uncertain, processes are complicated, and responses depend on scale. Nowhere are these methods more promising than in the environmental sciences.

  17. A Statistical Model for the Estimation of Natural Gas Consumption

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Vondráček, Jiří; Pelikán, Emil; Konár, Ondřej; Čermáková, Jana; Eben, Kryštof; Malý, Marek; Brabec, Marek

    2008-01-01

    Roč. 85, c. 5 (2008), s. 362-370 ISSN 0306-2619 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR 1ET400300513 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10300504 Keywords : nonlinear regression * gas consumption modeling Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 1.371, year: 2008

  18. Statistical learning modeling method for space debris photometric measurement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Wenjing; Sun, Jinqiu; Zhang, Yanning; Li, Haisen

    2016-03-01

    Photometric measurement is an important way to identify the space debris, but the present methods of photometric measurement have many constraints on star image and need complex image processing. Aiming at the problems, a statistical learning modeling method for space debris photometric measurement is proposed based on the global consistency of the star image, and the statistical information of star images is used to eliminate the measurement noises. First, the known stars on the star image are divided into training stars and testing stars. Then, the training stars are selected as the least squares fitting parameters to construct the photometric measurement model, and the testing stars are used to calculate the measurement accuracy of the photometric measurement model. Experimental results show that, the accuracy of the proposed photometric measurement model is about 0.1 magnitudes.

  19. Workshop on Model Uncertainty and its Statistical Implications

    CERN Document Server

    1988-01-01

    In this book problems related to the choice of models in such diverse fields as regression, covariance structure, time series analysis and multinomial experiments are discussed. The emphasis is on the statistical implications for model assessment when the assessment is done with the same data that generated the model. This is a problem of long standing, notorious for its difficulty. Some contributors discuss this problem in an illuminating way. Others, and this is a truly novel feature, investigate systematically whether sample re-use methods like the bootstrap can be used to assess the quality of estimators or predictors in a reliable way given the initial model uncertainty. The book should prove to be valuable for advanced practitioners and statistical methodologists alike.

  20. Statistical models describing the energy signature of buildings

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bacher, Peder; Madsen, Henrik; Thavlov, Anders

    2010-01-01

    Approximately one third of the primary energy production in Denmark is used for heating in buildings. Therefore efforts to accurately describe and improve energy performance of the building mass are very important. For this purpose statistical models describing the energy signature of a building, i...... or varying energy prices. The paper will give an overview of statistical methods and applied models based on experiments carried out in FlexHouse, which is an experimental building in SYSLAB, Risø DTU. The models are of different complexity and can provide estimates of physical quantities such as UA......-values, time constants of the building, and other parameters related to the heat dynamics. A method for selecting the most appropriate model for a given building is outlined and finally a perspective of the applications is given. Aknowledgements to the Danish Energy Saving Trust and the Interreg IV ``Vind i...

  1. Improved air ventilation rate estimation based on a statistical model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brabec, M.; Jilek, K.

    2004-01-01

    A new approach to air ventilation rate estimation from CO measurement data is presented. The approach is based on a state-space dynamic statistical model, allowing for quick and efficient estimation. Underlying computations are based on Kalman filtering, whose practical software implementation is rather easy. The key property is the flexibility of the model, allowing various artificial regimens of CO level manipulation to be treated. The model is semi-parametric in nature and can efficiently handle time-varying ventilation rate. This is a major advantage, compared to some of the methods which are currently in practical use. After a formal introduction of the statistical model, its performance is demonstrated on real data from routine measurements. It is shown how the approach can be utilized in a more complex situation of major practical relevance, when time-varying air ventilation rate and radon entry rate are to be estimated simultaneously from concurrent radon and CO measurements

  2. Bayesian Nonparametric Statistical Inference for Shock Models and Wear Processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1979-12-01

    also note that the results in Section 2 do not depend on the support of F .) This shock model have been studied by Esary, Marshall and Proschan (1973...Barlow and Proschan (1975), among others. The analogy of the shock model in risk and acturial analysis has been given by BUhlmann (1970, Chapter 2... Mathematical Statistics, Vol. 4, pp. 894-906. Billingsley, P. (1968), CONVERGENCE OF PROBABILITY MEASURES, John Wiley, New York. BUhlmann, H. (1970

  3. Statistical and RBF NN models : providing forecasts and risk assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Marček, Milan

    2009-01-01

    Forecast accuracy of economic and financial processes is a popular measure for quantifying the risk in decision making. In this paper, we develop forecasting models based on statistical (stochastic) methods, sometimes called hard computing, and on a soft method using granular computing. We consider the accuracy of forecasting models as a measure for risk evaluation. It is found that the risk estimation process based on soft methods is simplified and less critical to the question w...

  4. A Statistical Model for Synthesis of Detailed Facial Geometry

    OpenAIRE

    Golovinskiy, Aleksey; Matusik, Wojciech; Pfister, Hanspeter; Rusinkiewicz, Szymon; Funkhouser, Thomas

    2006-01-01

    Detailed surface geometry contributes greatly to the visual realism of 3D face models. However, acquiring high-resolution face geometry is often tedious and expensive. Consequently, most face models used in games, virtual reality, or computer vision look unrealistically smooth. In this paper, we introduce a new statistical technique for the analysis and synthesis of small three-dimensional facial features, such as wrinkles and pores. We acquire high-resolution face geometry for people across ...

  5. Modified Exponential (MOE) Models: statistical Models for Risk Estimation of Low dose Rate Radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ogata, H.; Furukawa, C.; Kawakami, Y.; Magae, J.

    2004-01-01

    Simultaneous inclusion of dose and dose-rate is required to evaluate the risk of long term irradiation at low dose-rates, since biological responses to radiation are complex processes that depend both on irradiation time and total dose. Consequently, it is necessary to consider a model including cumulative dose,dose-rate and irradiation time to estimate quantitative dose-response relationship on the biological response to radiation. In this study, we measured micronucleus formation and (3H) thymidine uptake in U2OS, human osteosarcoma cell line, as indicators of biological response to gamma radiation. Cells were exposed to gamma ray in irradiation room bearing 50,000 Ci 60Co. After irradiation, they were cultured for 24h in the presence of cytochalasin B to block cytokinesis, and cytoplasm and nucleus were stained with DAPI and propidium iodide. The number of binuclear cells bearing a micronucleus was counted under a florescence microscope. For proliferation inhibition, cells were cultured for 48 h after the irradiation and (3h) thymidine was pulsed for 4h before harvesting. We statistically analyzed the data for quantitative evaluation of radiation risk at low dose/dose-rate. (Author)

  6. Statistical modelling of transcript profiles of differentially regulated genes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergeant Martin J

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The vast quantities of gene expression profiling data produced in microarray studies, and the more precise quantitative PCR, are often not statistically analysed to their full potential. Previous studies have summarised gene expression profiles using simple descriptive statistics, basic analysis of variance (ANOVA and the clustering of genes based on simple models fitted to their expression profiles over time. We report the novel application of statistical non-linear regression modelling techniques to describe the shapes of expression profiles for the fungus Agaricus bisporus, quantified by PCR, and for E. coli and Rattus norvegicus, using microarray technology. The use of parametric non-linear regression models provides a more precise description of expression profiles, reducing the "noise" of the raw data to produce a clear "signal" given by the fitted curve, and describing each profile with a small number of biologically interpretable parameters. This approach then allows the direct comparison and clustering of the shapes of response patterns between genes and potentially enables a greater exploration and interpretation of the biological processes driving gene expression. Results Quantitative reverse transcriptase PCR-derived time-course data of genes were modelled. "Split-line" or "broken-stick" regression identified the initial time of gene up-regulation, enabling the classification of genes into those with primary and secondary responses. Five-day profiles were modelled using the biologically-oriented, critical exponential curve, y(t = A + (B + CtRt + ε. This non-linear regression approach allowed the expression patterns for different genes to be compared in terms of curve shape, time of maximal transcript level and the decline and asymptotic response levels. Three distinct regulatory patterns were identified for the five genes studied. Applying the regression modelling approach to microarray-derived time course data

  7. WE-A-201-02: Modern Statistical Modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Niemierko, A.

    2016-06-15

    Chris Marshall: Memorial Introduction Donald Edmonds Herbert Jr., or Don to his colleagues and friends, exemplified the “big tent” vision of medical physics, specializing in Applied Statistics and Dynamical Systems theory. He saw, more clearly than most, that “Making models is the difference between doing science and just fooling around [ref Woodworth, 2004]”. Don developed an interest in chemistry at school by “reading a book” - a recurring theme in his story. He was awarded a Westinghouse Science scholarship and attended the Carnegie Institute of Technology (later Carnegie Mellon University) where his interest turned to physics and led to a BS in Physics after transfer to Northwestern University. After (voluntary) service in the Navy he earned his MS in Physics from the University of Oklahoma, which led him to Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore to pursue a PhD. The early death of his wife led him to take a salaried position in the Physics Department of Colorado College in Colorado Springs so as to better care for their young daughter. There, a chance invitation from Dr. Juan del Regato to teach physics to residents at the Penrose Cancer Hospital introduced him to Medical Physics, and he decided to enter the field. He received his PhD from the University of London (UK) under Prof. Joseph Rotblat, where I first met him, and where he taught himself statistics. He returned to Penrose as a clinical medical physicist, also largely self-taught. In 1975 he formalized an evolving interest in statistical analysis as Professor of Radiology and Head of the Division of Physics and Statistics at the College of Medicine of the University of South Alabama in Mobile, AL where he remained for the rest of his career. He also served as the first Director of their Bio-Statistics and Epidemiology Core Unit working in part on a sickle-cell disease. After retirement he remained active as Professor Emeritus. Don served for several years as a consultant to the Nuclear

  8. WE-A-201-02: Modern Statistical Modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Niemierko, A.

    2016-01-01

    Chris Marshall: Memorial Introduction Donald Edmonds Herbert Jr., or Don to his colleagues and friends, exemplified the “big tent” vision of medical physics, specializing in Applied Statistics and Dynamical Systems theory. He saw, more clearly than most, that “Making models is the difference between doing science and just fooling around [ref Woodworth, 2004]”. Don developed an interest in chemistry at school by “reading a book” - a recurring theme in his story. He was awarded a Westinghouse Science scholarship and attended the Carnegie Institute of Technology (later Carnegie Mellon University) where his interest turned to physics and led to a BS in Physics after transfer to Northwestern University. After (voluntary) service in the Navy he earned his MS in Physics from the University of Oklahoma, which led him to Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore to pursue a PhD. The early death of his wife led him to take a salaried position in the Physics Department of Colorado College in Colorado Springs so as to better care for their young daughter. There, a chance invitation from Dr. Juan del Regato to teach physics to residents at the Penrose Cancer Hospital introduced him to Medical Physics, and he decided to enter the field. He received his PhD from the University of London (UK) under Prof. Joseph Rotblat, where I first met him, and where he taught himself statistics. He returned to Penrose as a clinical medical physicist, also largely self-taught. In 1975 he formalized an evolving interest in statistical analysis as Professor of Radiology and Head of the Division of Physics and Statistics at the College of Medicine of the University of South Alabama in Mobile, AL where he remained for the rest of his career. He also served as the first Director of their Bio-Statistics and Epidemiology Core Unit working in part on a sickle-cell disease. After retirement he remained active as Professor Emeritus. Don served for several years as a consultant to the Nuclear

  9. An exercise in model validation: Comparing univariate statistics and Monte Carlo-based multivariate statistics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weathers, J.B.; Luck, R.; Weathers, J.W.

    2009-01-01

    The complexity of mathematical models used by practicing engineers is increasing due to the growing availability of sophisticated mathematical modeling tools and ever-improving computational power. For this reason, the need to define a well-structured process for validating these models against experimental results has become a pressing issue in the engineering community. This validation process is partially characterized by the uncertainties associated with the modeling effort as well as the experimental results. The net impact of the uncertainties on the validation effort is assessed through the 'noise level of the validation procedure', which can be defined as an estimate of the 95% confidence uncertainty bounds for the comparison error between actual experimental results and model-based predictions of the same quantities of interest. Although general descriptions associated with the construction of the noise level using multivariate statistics exists in the literature, a detailed procedure outlining how to account for the systematic and random uncertainties is not available. In this paper, the methodology used to derive the covariance matrix associated with the multivariate normal pdf based on random and systematic uncertainties is examined, and a procedure used to estimate this covariance matrix using Monte Carlo analysis is presented. The covariance matrices are then used to construct approximate 95% confidence constant probability contours associated with comparison error results for a practical example. In addition, the example is used to show the drawbacks of using a first-order sensitivity analysis when nonlinear local sensitivity coefficients exist. Finally, the example is used to show the connection between the noise level of the validation exercise calculated using multivariate and univariate statistics.

  10. An exercise in model validation: Comparing univariate statistics and Monte Carlo-based multivariate statistics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Weathers, J.B. [Shock, Noise, and Vibration Group, Northrop Grumman Shipbuilding, P.O. Box 149, Pascagoula, MS 39568 (United States)], E-mail: James.Weathers@ngc.com; Luck, R. [Department of Mechanical Engineering, Mississippi State University, 210 Carpenter Engineering Building, P.O. Box ME, Mississippi State, MS 39762-5925 (United States)], E-mail: Luck@me.msstate.edu; Weathers, J.W. [Structural Analysis Group, Northrop Grumman Shipbuilding, P.O. Box 149, Pascagoula, MS 39568 (United States)], E-mail: Jeffrey.Weathers@ngc.com

    2009-11-15

    The complexity of mathematical models used by practicing engineers is increasing due to the growing availability of sophisticated mathematical modeling tools and ever-improving computational power. For this reason, the need to define a well-structured process for validating these models against experimental results has become a pressing issue in the engineering community. This validation process is partially characterized by the uncertainties associated with the modeling effort as well as the experimental results. The net impact of the uncertainties on the validation effort is assessed through the 'noise level of the validation procedure', which can be defined as an estimate of the 95% confidence uncertainty bounds for the comparison error between actual experimental results and model-based predictions of the same quantities of interest. Although general descriptions associated with the construction of the noise level using multivariate statistics exists in the literature, a detailed procedure outlining how to account for the systematic and random uncertainties is not available. In this paper, the methodology used to derive the covariance matrix associated with the multivariate normal pdf based on random and systematic uncertainties is examined, and a procedure used to estimate this covariance matrix using Monte Carlo analysis is presented. The covariance matrices are then used to construct approximate 95% confidence constant probability contours associated with comparison error results for a practical example. In addition, the example is used to show the drawbacks of using a first-order sensitivity analysis when nonlinear local sensitivity coefficients exist. Finally, the example is used to show the connection between the noise level of the validation exercise calculated using multivariate and univariate statistics.

  11. Computer modelling of statistical properties of SASE FEL radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saldin, E. L.; Schneidmiller, E. A.; Yurkov, M. V.

    1997-01-01

    The paper describes an approach to computer modelling of statistical properties of the radiation from self amplified spontaneous emission free electron laser (SASE FEL). The present approach allows one to calculate the following statistical properties of the SASE FEL radiation: time and spectral field correlation functions, distribution of the fluctuations of the instantaneous radiation power, distribution of the energy in the electron bunch, distribution of the radiation energy after monochromator installed at the FEL amplifier exit and the radiation spectrum. All numerical results presented in the paper have been calculated for the 70 nm SASE FEL at the TESLA Test Facility being under construction at DESY

  12. Stochastic geometry, spatial statistics and random fields models and algorithms

    CERN Document Server

    2015-01-01

    Providing a graduate level introduction to various aspects of stochastic geometry, spatial statistics and random fields, this volume places a special emphasis on fundamental classes of models and algorithms as well as on their applications, for example in materials science, biology and genetics. This book has a strong focus on simulations and includes extensive codes in Matlab and R, which are widely used in the mathematical community. It can be regarded as a continuation of the recent volume 2068 of Lecture Notes in Mathematics, where other issues of stochastic geometry, spatial statistics and random fields were considered, with a focus on asymptotic methods.

  13. Study of the association of atmospheric temperature and relative humidity with bulk tank milk somatic cell count in dairy herds using Generalized additive mixed models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Testa, Francesco; Marano, Giuseppe; Ambrogi, Federico; Boracchi, Patrizia; Casula, Antonio; Biganzoli, Elia; Moroni, Paolo

    2017-10-01

    Elevated bulk tank milk somatic cell count (BMSCC) has a negative impact on milk production, milk quality, and animal health. Seasonal increases in herd level somatic cell count (SCC) are commonly associated with elevated environmental temperature and humidity. The Temperature Humidity Index (THI) has been developed to measure general environmental stress in dairy cattle; however, additional work is needed to determine a specific effect of the heat stress index on herd-level SCC. Generalized Additive Model methods were used for a flexible exploration of the relationships between daily temperature, relative humidity, and bulk milk somatic cell count. The data consist of BMSCC and meteorological recordings collected between March 2009 and October 2011 of 10 dairy farms. The results indicate that, an average increase of 0.16% of BMSCC is expected for an increase of 1°C degree of temperature. A complex relationship was found for relative humidity. For example, increase of 0.099%, 0.037% and 0.020% are expected in correspondence to an increase of relative humidity from 50% to 51%, 80% to 81%; and 90% to 91%, respectively. Using this model, it will be possible to provide evidence-based advice to dairy farmers for the use of THI control charts created on the basis of our statistical model. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. GIA Model Statistics for GRACE Hydrology, Cryosphere, and Ocean Science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caron, L.; Ivins, E. R.; Larour, E.; Adhikari, S.; Nilsson, J.; Blewitt, G.

    2018-03-01

    We provide a new analysis of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) with the goal of assembling the model uncertainty statistics required for rigorously extracting trends in surface mass from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission. Such statistics are essential for deciphering sea level, ocean mass, and hydrological changes because the latter signals can be relatively small (≤2 mm/yr water height equivalent) over very large regions, such as major ocean basins and watersheds. With abundant new >7 year continuous measurements of vertical land motion (VLM) reported by Global Positioning System stations on bedrock and new relative sea level records, our new statistical evaluation of GIA uncertainties incorporates Bayesian methodologies. A unique aspect of the method is that both the ice history and 1-D Earth structure vary through a total of 128,000 forward models. We find that best fit models poorly capture the statistical inferences needed to correctly invert for lower mantle viscosity and that GIA uncertainty exceeds the uncertainty ascribed to trends from 14 years of GRACE data in polar regions.

  15. A Model Fit Statistic for Generalized Partial Credit Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Tie; Wells, Craig S.

    2009-01-01

    Investigating the fit of a parametric model is an important part of the measurement process when implementing item response theory (IRT), but research examining it is limited. A general nonparametric approach for detecting model misfit, introduced by J. Douglas and A. S. Cohen (2001), has exhibited promising results for the two-parameter logistic…

  16. Risk prediction model: Statistical and artificial neural network approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paiman, Nuur Azreen; Hariri, Azian; Masood, Ibrahim

    2017-04-01

    Prediction models are increasingly gaining popularity and had been used in numerous areas of studies to complement and fulfilled clinical reasoning and decision making nowadays. The adoption of such models assist physician's decision making, individual's behavior, and consequently improve individual outcomes and the cost-effectiveness of care. The objective of this paper is to reviewed articles related to risk prediction model in order to understand the suitable approach, development and the validation process of risk prediction model. A qualitative review of the aims, methods and significant main outcomes of the nineteen published articles that developed risk prediction models from numerous fields were done. This paper also reviewed on how researchers develop and validate the risk prediction models based on statistical and artificial neural network approach. From the review done, some methodological recommendation in developing and validating the prediction model were highlighted. According to studies that had been done, artificial neural network approached in developing the prediction model were more accurate compared to statistical approach. However currently, only limited published literature discussed on which approach is more accurate for risk prediction model development.

  17. Statistical Analysis and Time Series Modeling of Air Traffic Operations Data From Flight Service Stations and Terminal Radar Approach Control Facilities : Two Case Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    1981-10-01

    Two statistical procedures have been developed to estimate hourly or daily aircraft counts. These counts can then be transformed into estimates of instantaneous air counts. The first procedure estimates the stable (deterministic) mean level of hourly...

  18. Improving EWMA Plans for Detecting Unusual Increases in Poisson Counts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. S. Sparks

    2009-01-01

    adaptive exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA plan is developed for signalling unusually high incidence when monitoring a time series of nonhomogeneous daily disease counts. A Poisson transitional regression model is used to fit background/expected trend in counts and provides “one-day-ahead” forecasts of the next day's count. Departures of counts from their forecasts are monitored. The paper outlines an approach for improving early outbreak data signals by dynamically adjusting the exponential weights to be efficient at signalling local persistent high side changes. We emphasise outbreak signals in steady-state situations; that is, changes that occur after the EWMA statistic had run through several in-control counts.

  19. Statistical model selection with “Big Data”

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jurgen A. Doornik

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Big Data offer potential benefits for statistical modelling, but confront problems including an excess of false positives, mistaking correlations for causes, ignoring sampling biases and selecting by inappropriate methods. We consider the many important requirements when searching for a data-based relationship using Big Data, and the possible role of Autometrics in that context. Paramount considerations include embedding relationships in general initial models, possibly restricting the number of variables to be selected over by non-statistical criteria (the formulation problem, using good quality data on all variables, analyzed with tight significance levels by a powerful selection procedure, retaining available theory insights (the selection problem while testing for relationships being well specified and invariant to shifts in explanatory variables (the evaluation problem, using a viable approach that resolves the computational problem of immense numbers of possible models.

  20. Experimental, statistical, and biological models of radon carcinogenesis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cross, F.T.

    1991-09-01

    Risk models developed for underground miners have not been consistently validated in studies of populations exposed to indoor radon. Imprecision in risk estimates results principally from differences between exposures in mines as compared to domestic environments and from uncertainties about the interaction between cigarette-smoking and exposure to radon decay products. Uncertainties in extrapolating miner data to domestic exposures can be reduced by means of a broad-based health effects research program that addresses the interrelated issues of exposure, respiratory tract dose, carcinogenesis (molecular/cellular and animal studies, plus developing biological and statistical models), and the relationship of radon to smoking and other copollutant exposures. This article reviews experimental animal data on radon carcinogenesis observed primarily in rats at Pacific Northwest Laboratory. Recent experimental and mechanistic carcinogenesis models of exposures to radon, uranium ore dust, and cigarette smoke are presented with statistical analyses of animal data. 20 refs., 1 fig

  1. Multimesonic decays of charmonium states in the statistical quark model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Montvay, I.; Toth, J.D.

    1978-01-01

    The data known at present of multimesonic decays of chi and psi states are fitted in a statistical quark model, in which the matrix elements are assumed to be constant and resonances as well as both strong and second order electromagnetic processes are taken into account. The experimental data are well reproduced by the model. Unknown branching ratios for the rest of multimesonic channels are predicted. The fit leaves about 40% for baryonic and radiative channels in the case of J/psi(3095). The fitted parameters of the J/psi decays are used to predict the mesonic decays of the pseudoscalar eta c. The statistical quark model seems to allow the calculation of competitive multiparticle processes for the studied decays. (D.P.)

  2. Statistical 3D damage accumulation model for ion implant simulators

    CERN Document Server

    Hernandez-Mangas, J M; Enriquez, L E; Bailon, L; Barbolla, J; Jaraiz, M

    2003-01-01

    A statistical 3D damage accumulation model, based on the modified Kinchin-Pease formula, for ion implant simulation has been included in our physically based ion implantation code. It has only one fitting parameter for electronic stopping and uses 3D electron density distributions for different types of targets including compound semiconductors. Also, a statistical noise reduction mechanism based on the dose division is used. The model has been adapted to be run under parallel execution in order to speed up the calculation in 3D structures. Sequential ion implantation has been modelled including previous damage profiles. It can also simulate the implantation of molecular and cluster projectiles. Comparisons of simulated doping profiles with experimental SIMS profiles are presented. Also comparisons between simulated amorphization and experimental RBS profiles are shown. An analysis of sequential versus parallel processing is provided.

  3. Statistical 3D damage accumulation model for ion implant simulators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hernandez-Mangas, J.M.; Lazaro, J.; Enriquez, L.; Bailon, L.; Barbolla, J.; Jaraiz, M.

    2003-01-01

    A statistical 3D damage accumulation model, based on the modified Kinchin-Pease formula, for ion implant simulation has been included in our physically based ion implantation code. It has only one fitting parameter for electronic stopping and uses 3D electron density distributions for different types of targets including compound semiconductors. Also, a statistical noise reduction mechanism based on the dose division is used. The model has been adapted to be run under parallel execution in order to speed up the calculation in 3D structures. Sequential ion implantation has been modelled including previous damage profiles. It can also simulate the implantation of molecular and cluster projectiles. Comparisons of simulated doping profiles with experimental SIMS profiles are presented. Also comparisons between simulated amorphization and experimental RBS profiles are shown. An analysis of sequential versus parallel processing is provided

  4. SoS contract verification using statistical model checking

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alessandro Mignogna

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Exhaustive formal verification for systems of systems (SoS is impractical and cannot be applied on a large scale. In this paper we propose to use statistical model checking for efficient verification of SoS. We address three relevant aspects for systems of systems: 1 the model of the SoS, which includes stochastic aspects; 2 the formalization of the SoS requirements in the form of contracts; 3 the tool-chain to support statistical model checking for SoS. We adapt the SMC technique for application to heterogeneous SoS. We extend the UPDM/SysML specification language to express the SoS requirements that the implemented strategies over the SoS must satisfy. The requirements are specified with a new contract language specifically designed for SoS, targeting a high-level English- pattern language, but relying on an accurate semantics given by the standard temporal logics. The contracts are verified against the UPDM/SysML specification using the Statistical Model Checker (SMC PLASMA combined with the simulation engine DESYRE, which integrates heterogeneous behavioral models through the functional mock-up interface (FMI standard. The tool-chain allows computing an estimation of the satisfiability of the contracts by the SoS. The results help the system architect to trade-off different solutions to guide the evolution of the SoS.

  5. Counting carbohydrates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carb counting; Carbohydrate-controlled diet; Diabetic diet; Diabetes-counting carbohydrates ... Many foods contain carbohydrates (carbs), including: Fruit and fruit juice Cereal, bread, pasta, and rice Milk and milk products, soy milk Beans, legumes, ...

  6. Structural reliability in context of statistical uncertainties and modelling discrepancies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pendola, Maurice

    2000-01-01

    Structural reliability methods have been largely improved during the last years and have showed their ability to deal with uncertainties during the design stage or to optimize the functioning and the maintenance of industrial installations. They are based on a mechanical modeling of the structural behavior according to the considered failure modes and on a probabilistic representation of input parameters of this modeling. In practice, only limited statistical information is available to build the probabilistic representation and different sophistication levels of the mechanical modeling may be introduced. Thus, besides the physical randomness, other uncertainties occur in such analyses. The aim of this work is triple: 1. at first, to propose a methodology able to characterize the statistical uncertainties due to the limited number of data in order to take them into account in the reliability analyses. The obtained reliability index measures the confidence in the structure considering the statistical information available. 2. Then, to show a methodology leading to reliability results evaluated from a particular mechanical modeling but by using a less sophisticated one. The objective is then to decrease the computational efforts required by the reference modeling. 3. Finally, to propose partial safety factors that are evolving as a function of the number of statistical data available and as a function of the sophistication level of the mechanical modeling that is used. The concepts are illustrated in the case of a welded pipe and in the case of a natural draught cooling tower. The results show the interest of the methodologies in an industrial context. [fr

  7. Statistical aspects of autoregressive-moving average models in the assessment of radon mitigation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dunn, J.E.; Henschel, D.B.

    1989-01-01

    Radon values, as reflected by hourly scintillation counts, seem dominated by major, pseudo-periodic, random fluctuations. This methodological paper reports a moderate degree of success in modeling these data using relatively simple autoregressive-moving average models to assess the effectiveness of radon mitigation techniques in existing housing. While accounting for the natural correlation of successive observations, familiar summary statistics such as steady state estimates, standard errors, confidence limits, and tests of hypothesis are produced. The Box-Jenkins approach is used throughout. In particular, intervention analysis provides an objective means of assessing the effectiveness of an active mitigation measure, such as a fan off/on cycle. Occasionally, failure to declare a significant intervention has suggested a means of remedial action in the data collection procedure

  8. A Census of Statistics Requirements at U.S. Journalism Programs and a Model for a "Statistics for Journalism" Course

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Justin D.

    2017-01-01

    This essay presents data from a census of statistics requirements and offerings at all 4-year journalism programs in the United States (N = 369) and proposes a model of a potential course in statistics for journalism majors. The author proposes that three philosophies underlie a statistics course for journalism students. Such a course should (a)…

  9. Factors influencing adoption of farm management practices in three agrobiodiversity hotspots in India: an analysis using the Count Data Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Prabhakaran T. Raghu

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Sustainable agricultural practices require, among other factors, adoption of improved nutrient management techniques, pest mitigation technology and soil conservation measures. Such improved management practices can be tools for enhancing crop productivity. Data on micro-level farm management practices from developing countries is either scarce or unavailable, despite the importance of their policy implications with regard to resource allocation. The present study investigates adoption of some farm management practices and factors influencing the adoption behavior of farm households in three agrobiodiversity hotspots in India: Kundra block in the Koraput district of Odisha, Meenangadi panchayat in the Wayanad district of Kerala and Kolli Hills in the Namakkal district of Tamil Nadu. Information on farm management practices was collected from November 2011 to February 2012 from 3845 households, of which the data from 2726 farm households was used for analysis. The three most popular farm management practices adopted by farmers include: application of chemical fertilizers, farm yard manure and green manure for managing nutrients; application of chemical pesticides, inter-cropping and mixed cropping for mitigating pests; and contour bunds, grass bunds and trenches for soil conservation. A Negative Binomial count data regression model was used to estimate factors influencing decision-making by farmers on farm management practices. The regression results indicate that farmers who received information from agricultural extension are statistically significant and positively related to the adoption of farm management practices. Another key finding shows the negative relationship between cultivation of local varieties and adoption of farm management practices.

  10. A statistical model for radar images of agricultural scenes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frost, V. S.; Shanmugan, K. S.; Holtzman, J. C.; Stiles, J. A.

    1982-01-01

    The presently derived and validated statistical model for radar images containing many different homogeneous fields predicts the probability density functions of radar images of entire agricultural scenes, thereby allowing histograms of large scenes composed of a variety of crops to be described. Seasat-A SAR images of agricultural scenes are accurately predicted by the model on the basis of three assumptions: each field has the same SNR, all target classes cover approximately the same area, and the true reflectivity characterizing each individual target class is a uniformly distributed random variable. The model is expected to be useful in the design of data processing algorithms and for scene analysis using radar images.

  11. Two-part zero-inflated negative binomial regression model for quantitative trait loci mapping with count trait.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moghimbeigi, Abbas

    2015-05-07

    Poisson regression models provide a standard framework for quantitative trait locus (QTL) mapping of count traits. In practice, however, count traits are often over-dispersed relative to the Poisson distribution. In these situations, the zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP), zero-inflated generalized Poisson (ZIGP) and zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) regression may be useful for QTL mapping of count traits. Added genetic variables to the negative binomial part equation, may also affect extra zero data. In this study, to overcome these challenges, I apply two-part ZINB model. The EM algorithm with Newton-Raphson method in the M-step uses for estimating parameters. An application of the two-part ZINB model for QTL mapping is considered to detect associations between the formation of gallstone and the genotype of markers. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Discrete ellipsoidal statistical BGK model and Burnett equations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yu-Dong; Xu, Ai-Guo; Zhang, Guang-Cai; Chen, Zhi-Hua; Wang, Pei

    2018-06-01

    A new discrete Boltzmann model, the discrete ellipsoidal statistical Bhatnagar-Gross-Krook (ESBGK) model, is proposed to simulate nonequilibrium compressible flows. Compared with the original discrete BGK model, the discrete ES-BGK has a flexible Prandtl number. For the discrete ES-BGK model in the Burnett level, two kinds of discrete velocity model are introduced and the relations between nonequilibrium quantities and the viscous stress and heat flux in the Burnett level are established. The model is verified via four benchmark tests. In addition, a new idea is introduced to recover the actual distribution function through the macroscopic quantities and their space derivatives. The recovery scheme works not only for discrete Boltzmann simulation but also for hydrodynamic ones, for example, those based on the Navier-Stokes or the Burnett equations.

  13. Statistics of a neuron model driven by asymmetric colored noise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Müller-Hansen, Finn; Droste, Felix; Lindner, Benjamin

    2015-02-01

    Irregular firing of neurons can be modeled as a stochastic process. Here we study the perfect integrate-and-fire neuron driven by dichotomous noise, a Markovian process that jumps between two states (i.e., possesses a non-Gaussian statistics) and exhibits nonvanishing temporal correlations (i.e., represents a colored noise). Specifically, we consider asymmetric dichotomous noise with two different transition rates. Using a first-passage-time formulation, we derive exact expressions for the probability density and the serial correlation coefficient of the interspike interval (time interval between two subsequent neural action potentials) and the power spectrum of the spike train. Furthermore, we extend the model by including additional Gaussian white noise, and we give approximations for the interspike interval (ISI) statistics in this case. Numerical simulations are used to validate the exact analytical results for pure dichotomous noise, and to test the approximations of the ISI statistics when Gaussian white noise is included. The results may help to understand how correlations and asymmetry of noise and signals in nerve cells shape neuronal firing statistics.

  14. Spatio-temporal statistical models with applications to atmospheric processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wikle, C.K.

    1996-01-01

    This doctoral dissertation is presented as three self-contained papers. An introductory chapter considers traditional spatio-temporal statistical methods used in the atmospheric sciences from a statistical perspective. Although this section is primarily a review, many of the statistical issues considered have not been considered in the context of these methods and several open questions are posed. The first paper attempts to determine a means of characterizing the semiannual oscillation (SAO) spatial variation in the northern hemisphere extratropical height field. It was discovered that the midlatitude SAO in 500hPa geopotential height could be explained almost entirely as a result of spatial and temporal asymmetries in the annual variation of stationary eddies. It was concluded that the mechanism for the SAO in the northern hemisphere is a result of land-sea contrasts. The second paper examines the seasonal variability of mixed Rossby-gravity waves (MRGW) in lower stratospheric over the equatorial Pacific. Advanced cyclostationary time series techniques were used for analysis. It was found that there are significant twice-yearly peaks in MRGW activity. Analyses also suggested a convergence of horizontal momentum flux associated with these waves. In the third paper, a new spatio-temporal statistical model is proposed that attempts to consider the influence of both temporal and spatial variability. This method is mainly concerned with prediction in space and time, and provides a spatially descriptive and temporally dynamic model

  15. Solar radiation data - statistical analysis and simulation models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mustacchi, C; Cena, V; Rocchi, M; Haghigat, F

    1984-01-01

    The activities consisted in collecting meteorological data on magnetic tape for ten european locations (with latitudes ranging from 42/sup 0/ to 56/sup 0/ N), analysing the multi-year sequences, developing mathematical models to generate synthetic sequences having the same statistical properties of the original data sets, and producing one or more Short Reference Years (SRY's) for each location. The meteorological parameters examinated were (for all the locations) global + diffuse radiation on horizontal surface, dry bulb temperature, sunshine duration. For some of the locations additional parameters were available, namely, global, beam and diffuse radiation on surfaces other than horizontal, wet bulb temperature, wind velocity, cloud type, cloud cover. The statistical properties investigated were mean, variance, autocorrelation, crosscorrelation with selected parameters, probability density function. For all the meteorological parameters, various mathematical models were built: linear regression, stochastic models of the AR and the DAR type. In each case, the model with the best statistical behaviour was selected for the production of a SRY for the relevant parameter/location.

  16. A statistical model for porous structure of rocks

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    JU Yang; YANG YongMing; SONG ZhenDuo; XU WenJing

    2008-01-01

    The geometric features and the distribution properties of pores in rocks were In-vestigated by means of CT scanning tests of sandstones. The centroidal coordl-nares of pores, the statistic characterristics of pore distance, quantity, size and their probability density functions were formulated in this paper. The Monte Carlo method and the random number generating algorithm were employed to generate two series of random numbers with the desired statistic characteristics and prob-ability density functions upon which the random distribution of pore position, dis-tance and quantity were determined. A three-dimensional porous structural model of sandstone was constructed based on the FLAC3D program and the information of the pore position and distribution that the series of random numbers defined. On the basis of modelling, the Brazil split tests of rock discs were carried out to ex-amine the stress distribution, the pattern of element failure and the inoaculation of failed elements. The simulation indicated that the proposed model was consistent with the realistic porous structure of rock in terms of their statistic properties of pores and geometric similarity. The built-up model disclosed the influence of pores on the stress distribution, failure mode of material elements and the inosculation of failed elements.

  17. A statistical model for porous structure of rocks

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2008-01-01

    The geometric features and the distribution properties of pores in rocks were in- vestigated by means of CT scanning tests of sandstones. The centroidal coordi- nates of pores, the statistic characterristics of pore distance, quantity, size and their probability density functions were formulated in this paper. The Monte Carlo method and the random number generating algorithm were employed to generate two series of random numbers with the desired statistic characteristics and prob- ability density functions upon which the random distribution of pore position, dis- tance and quantity were determined. A three-dimensional porous structural model of sandstone was constructed based on the FLAC3D program and the information of the pore position and distribution that the series of random numbers defined. On the basis of modelling, the Brazil split tests of rock discs were carried out to ex- amine the stress distribution, the pattern of element failure and the inosculation of failed elements. The simulation indicated that the proposed model was consistent with the realistic porous structure of rock in terms of their statistic properties of pores and geometric similarity. The built-up model disclosed the influence of pores on the stress distribution, failure mode of material elements and the inosculation of failed elements.

  18. Bayesian statistic methods and theri application in probabilistic simulation models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergio Iannazzo

    2007-03-01

    Full Text Available Bayesian statistic methods are facing a rapidly growing level of interest and acceptance in the field of health economics. The reasons of this success are probably to be found on the theoretical fundaments of the discipline that make these techniques more appealing to decision analysis. To this point should be added the modern IT progress that has developed different flexible and powerful statistical software framework. Among them probably one of the most noticeably is the BUGS language project and its standalone application for MS Windows WinBUGS. Scope of this paper is to introduce the subject and to show some interesting applications of WinBUGS in developing complex economical models based on Markov chains. The advantages of this approach reside on the elegance of the code produced and in its capability to easily develop probabilistic simulations. Moreover an example of the integration of bayesian inference models in a Markov model is shown. This last feature let the analyst conduce statistical analyses on the available sources of evidence and exploit them directly as inputs in the economic model.

  19. Can spatial statistical river temperature models be transferred between catchments?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson, Faye L.; Fryer, Robert J.; Hannah, David M.; Malcolm, Iain A.

    2017-09-01

    There has been increasing use of spatial statistical models to understand and predict river temperature (Tw) from landscape covariates. However, it is not financially or logistically feasible to monitor all rivers and the transferability of such models has not been explored. This paper uses Tw data from four river catchments collected in August 2015 to assess how well spatial regression models predict the maximum 7-day rolling mean of daily maximum Tw (Twmax) within and between catchments. Models were fitted for each catchment separately using (1) landscape covariates only (LS models) and (2) landscape covariates and an air temperature (Ta) metric (LS_Ta models). All the LS models included upstream catchment area and three included a river network smoother (RNS) that accounted for unexplained spatial structure. The LS models transferred reasonably to other catchments, at least when predicting relative levels of Twmax. However, the predictions were biased when mean Twmax differed between catchments. The RNS was needed to characterise and predict finer-scale spatially correlated variation. Because the RNS was unique to each catchment and thus non-transferable, predictions were better within catchments than between catchments. A single model fitted to all catchments found no interactions between the landscape covariates and catchment, suggesting that the landscape relationships were transferable. The LS_Ta models transferred less well, with particularly poor performance when the relationship with the Ta metric was physically implausible or required extrapolation outside the range of the data. A single model fitted to all catchments found catchment-specific relationships between Twmax and the Ta metric, indicating that the Ta metric was not transferable. These findings improve our understanding of the transferability of spatial statistical river temperature models and provide a foundation for developing new approaches for predicting Tw at unmonitored locations across

  20. Approaches for modeling within subject variability in pharmacometric count data analysis: dynamic inter-occasion variability and stochastic differential equations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Chenhui; Plan, Elodie L; Karlsson, Mats O

    2016-06-01

    Parameter variation in pharmacometric analysis studies can be characterized as within subject parameter variability (WSV) in pharmacometric models. WSV has previously been successfully modeled using inter-occasion variability (IOV), but also stochastic differential equations (SDEs). In this study, two approaches, dynamic inter-occasion variability (dIOV) and adapted stochastic differential equations, were proposed to investigate WSV in pharmacometric count data analysis. These approaches were applied to published count models for seizure counts and Likert pain scores. Both approaches improved the model fits significantly. In addition, stochastic simulation and estimation were used to explore further the capability of the two approaches to diagnose and improve models where existing WSV is not recognized. The results of simulations confirmed the gain in introducing WSV as dIOV and SDEs when parameters vary randomly over time. Further, the approaches were also informative as diagnostics of model misspecification, when parameters changed systematically over time but this was not recognized in the structural model. The proposed approaches in this study offer strategies to characterize WSV and are not restricted to count data.

  1. BOX-COX transformation and random regression models for fecal egg count data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcos Vinicius Silva

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Accurate genetic evaluation of livestock is based on appropriate modeling of phenotypic measurements. In ruminants fecal egg count (FEC is commonly used to measure resistance to nematodes. FEC values are not normally distributed and logarithmic transformations have been used to achieve normality before analysis. However, the transformed data are often not normally distributed, especially when data are extremely skewed. A series of repeated FEC measurements may provide information about the population dynamics of a group or individual. A total of 6,375 FEC measures were obtained for 410 animals between 1992 and 2003 from the Beltsville Agricultural Research Center Angus herd. Original data were transformed using an extension of the Box-Cox transformation to approach normality and to estimate (covariance components. We also proposed using random regression models (RRM for genetic and non-genetic studies of FEC. Phenotypes were analyzed using RRM and restricted maximum likelihood. Within the different orders of Legendre polynomials used, those with more parameters (order 4 adjusted FEC data best. Results indicated that the transformation of FEC data utilizing the Box-Cox transformation family was effective in reducing the skewness and kurtosis, and dramatically increased estimates of heritability, and measurements of FEC obtained in the period between 12 and 26 weeks in a 26-week experimental challenge period are genetically correlated.

  2. Box-Cox Transformation and Random Regression Models for Fecal egg Count Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    da Silva, Marcos Vinícius Gualberto Barbosa; Van Tassell, Curtis P; Sonstegard, Tad S; Cobuci, Jaime Araujo; Gasbarre, Louis C

    2011-01-01

    Accurate genetic evaluation of livestock is based on appropriate modeling of phenotypic measurements. In ruminants, fecal egg count (FEC) is commonly used to measure resistance to nematodes. FEC values are not normally distributed and logarithmic transformations have been used in an effort to achieve normality before analysis. However, the transformed data are often still not normally distributed, especially when data are extremely skewed. A series of repeated FEC measurements may provide information about the population dynamics of a group or individual. A total of 6375 FEC measures were obtained for 410 animals between 1992 and 2003 from the Beltsville Agricultural Research Center Angus herd. Original data were transformed using an extension of the Box-Cox transformation to approach normality and to estimate (co)variance components. We also proposed using random regression models (RRM) for genetic and non-genetic studies of FEC. Phenotypes were analyzed using RRM and restricted maximum likelihood. Within the different orders of Legendre polynomials used, those with more parameters (order 4) adjusted FEC data best. Results indicated that the transformation of FEC data utilizing the Box-Cox transformation family was effective in reducing the skewness and kurtosis, and dramatically increased estimates of heritability, and measurements of FEC obtained in the period between 12 and 26 weeks in a 26-week experimental challenge period are genetically correlated.

  3. Comparative study of afterpulsing behavior and models in single photon counting avalanche photo diode detectors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ziarkash, Abdul Waris; Joshi, Siddarth Koduru; Stipčević, Mario; Ursin, Rupert

    2018-03-22

    Single-photon avalanche diode (SPAD) detectors, have a great importance in fields like quantum key distribution, laser ranging, florescence microscopy, etc. Afterpulsing is a non-ideal behavior of SPADs that adversely affects any application that measures the number or timing of detection events. Several studies based on a few individual detectors, derived distinct mathematical models from semiconductor physics perspectives. With a consistent testing procedure and statistically large data sets, we show that different individual detectors - even if identical in type, make, brand, etc. - behave according to fundamentally different mathematical models. Thus, every detector must be characterized individually and it is wrong to draw universal conclusions about the physical meaning behind these models. We also report the presence of high-order afterpulses that are not accounted for in any of the standard models.

  4. Probing the exchange statistics of one-dimensional anyon models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greschner, Sebastian; Cardarelli, Lorenzo; Santos, Luis

    2018-05-01

    We propose feasible scenarios for revealing the modified exchange statistics in one-dimensional anyon models in optical lattices based on an extension of the multicolor lattice-depth modulation scheme introduced in [Phys. Rev. A 94, 023615 (2016), 10.1103/PhysRevA.94.023615]. We show that the fast modulation of a two-component fermionic lattice gas in the presence a magnetic field gradient, in combination with additional resonant microwave fields, allows for the quantum simulation of hardcore anyon models with periodic boundary conditions. Such a semisynthetic ring setup allows for realizing an interferometric arrangement sensitive to the anyonic statistics. Moreover, we show as well that simple expansion experiments may reveal the formation of anomalously bound pairs resulting from the anyonic exchange.

  5. Statistical inference to advance network models in epidemiology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Welch, David; Bansal, Shweta; Hunter, David R

    2011-03-01

    Contact networks are playing an increasingly important role in the study of epidemiology. Most of the existing work in this area has focused on considering the effect of underlying network structure on epidemic dynamics by using tools from probability theory and computer simulation. This work has provided much insight on the role that heterogeneity in host contact patterns plays on infectious disease dynamics. Despite the important understanding afforded by the probability and simulation paradigm, this approach does not directly address important questions about the structure of contact networks such as what is the best network model for a particular mode of disease transmission, how parameter values of a given model should be estimated, or how precisely the data allow us to estimate these parameter values. We argue that these questions are best answered within a statistical framework and discuss the role of statistical inference in estimating contact networks from epidemiological data. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Statistical models of a gas diffusion electrode: II. Current resistent

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Proksch, D B; Winsel, O W

    1965-07-01

    The authors describe an apparatus for measuring the flow resistance of gas diffusion electrodes which is a mechanical analog of the Wheatstone bridge for measuring electric resistance. The flow resistance of a circular DSK electrode sheet, consisting of two covering layers and a working layer between them, was measured as a function of the gas pressure. While the pressure first was increased and then decreased, a hysteresis occurred, which is discussed and explained by a statistical model of a porous electrode.

  7. A Statistical Model for Soliton Particle Interaction in Plasmas

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dysthe, K. B.; Pécseli, Hans; Truelsen, J.

    1986-01-01

    A statistical model for soliton-particle interaction is presented. A master equation is derived for the time evolution of the particle velocity distribution as induced by resonant interaction with Korteweg-de Vries solitons. The detailed energy balance during the interaction subsequently determines...... the evolution of the soliton amplitude distribution. The analysis applies equally well for weakly nonlinear plasma waves in a strongly magnetized waveguide, or for ion acoustic waves propagating in one-dimensional systems....

  8. Statistical model of a gas diffusion electrode. III. Photomicrograph study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Winsel, A W

    1965-12-01

    A linear section through a gas diffusion electrode produces a certain distribution function of sinews with the pores. From this distribution function some qualities of the pore structure are derived, and an automatic device to determine the distribution function is described. With a statistical model of a gas diffusion electrode the behavior of a DSK electrode is discussed and compared with earlier measurements of the flow resistance of this material.

  9. A statistical model of structure functions and quantum chromodynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mac, E.; Ugaz, E.; Universidad Nacional de Ingenieria, Lima

    1989-01-01

    We consider a model for the x-dependence of the quark distributions in the proton. Within the context of simple statistical assumptions, we obtain the parton densities in the infinite momentum frame. In a second step lowest order QCD corrections are incorporated to these distributions. Crude, but reasonable, agreement with experiment is found for the F 2 , valence and q, anti q distributions for x> or approx.0.2. (orig.)

  10. Modeling the basic superconductor thermodynamical-statistical characteristics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Palenskis, V.; Maknys, K.

    1999-01-01

    In accordance with the Landau second-order phase transition and other thermodynamical-statistical relations for superconductors, and using the energy gap as an order parameter in the electron free energy presentation, the fundamental characteristics of electrons, such as the free energy, the total energy, the energy gap, the entropy, and the heat capacity dependences on temperature were obtained. The obtained modeling results, in principle, well reflect the basic low- and high-temperature superconductor characteristics

  11. Environmental radionuclide concentrations: statistical model to determine uniformity of distribution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cawley, C.N.; Fenyves, E.J.; Spitzberg, D.B.; Wiorkowski, J.; Chehroudi, M.T.

    1980-01-01

    In the evaluation of data from environmental sampling and measurement, a basic question is whether the radionuclide (or pollutant) is distributed uniformly. Since physical measurements have associated errors, it is inappropriate to consider the measurements alone in this determination. Hence, a statistical model has been developed. It consists of a weighted analysis of variance with subsequent t-tests between weighted and independent means. A computer program to perform the calculations is included

  12. Statistical and non statistical models for delayed neutron emission: applications to nuclei near A = 90

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Oliveira, Z.M.

    1980-01-01

    A detailed analysis of the simple statistical model description for delayed neutron emission of 87 Br, 137 I, 85 As and 135 Sb has been performed. In agreement with experimental findings, structure in the #betta#-strength function is required to reproduce the envelope of the neutron spectrum from 87 Br. For 85 As and 135 Sb the model is found incapable of simultaneously reproducing envelopes of delayed neutron spectra and neutron branching ratios to excited states in the final nuclei for any choice of #betta#-strength function. The results indicate that partial widths for neutron emission are not compatible with optical-model transmission coefficients. The simple shell model with pairing is shown to qualitatively describe the main features of the #betta#-strength functions for decay of 87 Br and 91 93 95 97 Rb. It is found that the location of apparent resonances in the experimental data are in rough agreement with the location of centroids of strength calculated with this model. An extension of the shell model picture which includes the Gamow-Teller residual interaction is used to investigate decay properties of 84 86 As, 86 92 Br and 88 102 Rb. For a realistic choice of interaction strength, the half lives of these isotopes are fairly well reproduced and semiquantitative agreement with experimental #betta#-strength functions is found. Delayed neutron emission probabilities are reproduced for precursors nearer stability with systematic deviations being observed for the heavier nuclei. Contrary to the assumption of a structureless Gamow-Teller giant resonance as embodied gross theory of #betta#-decay, we find that structures in the tail of the Gamow-Teller giant resonances are expected which strongly influence the decay properties of nuclides in this region

  13. Statistical methods for mechanistic model validation: Salt Repository Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eggett, D.L.

    1988-07-01

    As part of the Department of Energy's Salt Repository Program, Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) is studying the emplacement of nuclear waste containers in a salt repository. One objective of the SRP program is to develop an overall waste package component model which adequately describes such phenomena as container corrosion, waste form leaching, spent fuel degradation, etc., which are possible in the salt repository environment. The form of this model will be proposed, based on scientific principles and relevant salt repository conditions with supporting data. The model will be used to predict the future characteristics of the near field environment. This involves several different submodels such as the amount of time it takes a brine solution to contact a canister in the repository, how long it takes a canister to corrode and expose its contents to the brine, the leach rate of the contents of the canister, etc. These submodels are often tested in a laboratory and should be statistically validated (in this context, validate means to demonstrate that the model adequately describes the data) before they can be incorporated into the waste package component model. This report describes statistical methods for validating these models. 13 refs., 1 fig., 3 tabs

  14. Estimating preferential flow in karstic aquifers using statistical mixed models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anaya, Angel A; Padilla, Ingrid; Macchiavelli, Raul; Vesper, Dorothy J; Meeker, John D; Alshawabkeh, Akram N

    2014-01-01

    Karst aquifers are highly productive groundwater systems often associated with conduit flow. These systems can be highly vulnerable to contamination, resulting in a high potential for contaminant exposure to humans and ecosystems. This work develops statistical models to spatially characterize flow and transport patterns in karstified limestone and determines the effect of aquifer flow rates on these patterns. A laboratory-scale Geo-HydroBed model is used to simulate flow and transport processes in a karstic limestone unit. The model consists of stainless steel tanks containing a karstified limestone block collected from a karst aquifer formation in northern Puerto Rico. Experimental work involves making a series of flow and tracer injections, while monitoring hydraulic and tracer response spatially and temporally. Statistical mixed models (SMMs) are applied to hydraulic data to determine likely pathways of preferential flow in the limestone units. The models indicate a highly heterogeneous system with dominant, flow-dependent preferential flow regions. Results indicate that regions of preferential flow tend to expand at higher groundwater flow rates, suggesting a greater volume of the system being flushed by flowing water at higher rates. Spatial and temporal distribution of tracer concentrations indicates the presence of conduit-like and diffuse flow transport in the system, supporting the notion of both combined transport mechanisms in the limestone unit. The temporal response of tracer concentrations at different locations in the model coincide with, and confirms the preferential flow distribution generated with the SMMs used in the study. © 2013, National Ground Water Association.

  15. A generalized statistical model for the size distribution of wealth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clementi, F; Gallegati, M; Kaniadakis, G

    2012-01-01

    In a recent paper in this journal (Clementi et al 2009 J. Stat. Mech. P02037), we proposed a new, physically motivated, distribution function for modeling individual incomes, having its roots in the framework of the κ-generalized statistical mechanics. The performance of the κ-generalized distribution was checked against real data on personal income for the United States in 2003. In this paper we extend our previous model so as to be able to account for the distribution of wealth. Probabilistic functions and inequality measures of this generalized model for wealth distribution are obtained in closed form. In order to check the validity of the proposed model, we analyze the US household wealth distributions from 1984 to 2009 and conclude an excellent agreement with the data that is superior to any other model already known in the literature. (paper)

  16. A generalized statistical model for the size distribution of wealth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clementi, F.; Gallegati, M.; Kaniadakis, G.

    2012-12-01

    In a recent paper in this journal (Clementi et al 2009 J. Stat. Mech. P02037), we proposed a new, physically motivated, distribution function for modeling individual incomes, having its roots in the framework of the κ-generalized statistical mechanics. The performance of the κ-generalized distribution was checked against real data on personal income for the United States in 2003. In this paper we extend our previous model so as to be able to account for the distribution of wealth. Probabilistic functions and inequality measures of this generalized model for wealth distribution are obtained in closed form. In order to check the validity of the proposed model, we analyze the US household wealth distributions from 1984 to 2009 and conclude an excellent agreement with the data that is superior to any other model already known in the literature.

  17. Analysis of correlated count data using generalised linear mixed models exemplified by field data on aggressive behaviour of boars

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Mielenz

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Population-averaged and subject-specific models are available to evaluate count data when repeated observations per subject are present. The latter are also known in the literature as generalised linear mixed models (GLMM. In GLMM repeated measures are taken into account explicitly through random animal effects in the linear predictor. In this paper the relevant GLMMs are presented based on conditional Poisson or negative binomial distribution of the response variable for given random animal effects. Equations for the repeatability of count data are derived assuming normal distribution and logarithmic gamma distribution for the random animal effects. Using count data on aggressive behaviour events of pigs (barrows, sows and boars in mixed-sex housing, we demonstrate the use of the Poisson »log-gamma intercept«, the Poisson »normal intercept« and the »normal intercept« model with negative binomial distribution. Since not all count data can definitely be seen as Poisson or negative-binomially distributed, questions of model selection and model checking are examined. Emanating from the example, we also interpret the least squares means, estimated on the link as well as the response scale. Options provided by the SAS procedure NLMIXED for estimating model parameters and for estimating marginal expected values are presented.

  18. UPPAAL-SMC: Statistical Model Checking for Priced Timed Automata

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bulychev, Petr; David, Alexandre; Larsen, Kim Guldstrand

    2012-01-01

    on a series of extensions of the statistical model checking approach generalized to handle real-time systems and estimate undecidable problems. U PPAAL - SMC comes together with a friendly user interface that allows a user to specify complex problems in an efficient manner as well as to get feedback...... in the form of probability distributions and compare probabilities to analyze performance aspects of systems. The focus of the survey is on the evolution of the tool – including modeling and specification formalisms as well as techniques applied – together with applications of the tool to case studies....

  19. Statistical mechanics of attractor neural network models with synaptic depression

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Igarashi, Yasuhiko; Oizumi, Masafumi; Otsubo, Yosuke; Nagata, Kenji; Okada, Masato

    2009-01-01

    Synaptic depression is known to control gain for presynaptic inputs. Since cortical neurons receive thousands of presynaptic inputs, and their outputs are fed into thousands of other neurons, the synaptic depression should influence macroscopic properties of neural networks. We employ simple neural network models to explore the macroscopic effects of synaptic depression. Systems with the synaptic depression cannot be analyzed due to asymmetry of connections with the conventional equilibrium statistical-mechanical approach. Thus, we first propose a microscopic dynamical mean field theory. Next, we derive macroscopic steady state equations and discuss the stabilities of steady states for various types of neural network models.

  20. A model independent safeguard against background mismodeling for statistical inference

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Priel, Nadav; Landsman, Hagar; Manfredini, Alessandro; Budnik, Ranny [Department of Particle Physics and Astrophysics, Weizmann Institute of Science, Herzl St. 234, Rehovot (Israel); Rauch, Ludwig, E-mail: nadav.priel@weizmann.ac.il, E-mail: rauch@mpi-hd.mpg.de, E-mail: hagar.landsman@weizmann.ac.il, E-mail: alessandro.manfredini@weizmann.ac.il, E-mail: ran.budnik@weizmann.ac.il [Teilchen- und Astroteilchenphysik, Max-Planck-Institut für Kernphysik, Saupfercheckweg 1, 69117 Heidelberg (Germany)

    2017-05-01

    We propose a safeguard procedure for statistical inference that provides universal protection against mismodeling of the background. The method quantifies and incorporates the signal-like residuals of the background model into the likelihood function, using information available in a calibration dataset. This prevents possible false discovery claims that may arise through unknown mismodeling, and corrects the bias in limit setting created by overestimated or underestimated background. We demonstrate how the method removes the bias created by an incomplete background model using three realistic case studies.

  1. Document Categorization with Modified Statistical Language Models for Agglutinative Languages

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tantug

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we investigate the document categorization task with statistical language models. Our study mainly focuses on categorization of documents in agglutinative languages. Due to the productive morphology of agglutinative languages, the number of word forms encountered in naturally occurring text is very large. From the language modeling perspective, a large vocabulary results in serious data sparseness problems. In order to cope with this drawback, previous studies in various application areas suggest modified language models based on different morphological units. It is reported that performance improvements can be achieved with these modified language models. In our document categorization experiments, we use standard word form based language models as well as other modified language models based on root words, root words and part-of-speech information, truncated word forms and character sequences. Additionally, to find an optimum parameter set, multiple tests are carried out with different language model orders and smoothing methods. Similar to previous studies on other tasks, our experimental results on categorization of Turkish documents reveal that applying linguistic preprocessing steps for language modeling provides improvements over standard language models to some extent. However, it is also observed that similar level of performance improvements can also be acquired by simpler character level or truncated word form models which are language independent.

  2. A Scan Statistic for Continuous Data Based on the Normal Probability Model

    OpenAIRE

    Konty, Kevin; Kulldorff, Martin; Huang, Lan

    2009-01-01

    Abstract Temporal, spatial and space-time scan statistics are commonly used to detect and evaluate the statistical significance of temporal and/or geographical disease clusters, without any prior assumptions on the location, time period or size of those clusters. Scan statistics are mostly used for count data, such as disease incidence or mortality. Sometimes there is an interest in looking for clusters with respect to a continuous variable, such as lead levels in children or low birth weight...

  3. A neighborhood statistics model for predicting stream pathogen indicator levels.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pandey, Pramod K; Pasternack, Gregory B; Majumder, Mahbubul; Soupir, Michelle L; Kaiser, Mark S

    2015-03-01

    Because elevated levels of water-borne Escherichia coli in streams are a leading cause of water quality impairments in the U.S., water-quality managers need tools for predicting aqueous E. coli levels. Presently, E. coli levels may be predicted using complex mechanistic models that have a high degree of unchecked uncertainty or simpler statistical models. To assess spatio-temporal patterns of instream E. coli levels, herein we measured E. coli, a pathogen indicator, at 16 sites (at four different times) within the Squaw Creek watershed, Iowa, and subsequently, the Markov Random Field model was exploited to develop a neighborhood statistics model for predicting instream E. coli levels. Two observed covariates, local water temperature (degrees Celsius) and mean cross-sectional depth (meters), were used as inputs to the model. Predictions of E. coli levels in the water column were compared with independent observational data collected from 16 in-stream locations. The results revealed that spatio-temporal averages of predicted and observed E. coli levels were extremely close. Approximately 66 % of individual predicted E. coli concentrations were within a factor of 2 of the observed values. In only one event, the difference between prediction and observation was beyond one order of magnitude. The mean of all predicted values at 16 locations was approximately 1 % higher than the mean of the observed values. The approach presented here will be useful while assessing instream contaminations such as pathogen/pathogen indicator levels at the watershed scale.

  4. Efficient Parallel Statistical Model Checking of Biochemical Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paolo Ballarini

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available We consider the problem of verifying stochastic models of biochemical networks against behavioral properties expressed in temporal logic terms. Exact probabilistic verification approaches such as, for example, CSL/PCTL model checking, are undermined by a huge computational demand which rule them out for most real case studies. Less demanding approaches, such as statistical model checking, estimate the likelihood that a property is satisfied by sampling executions out of the stochastic model. We propose a methodology for efficiently estimating the likelihood that a LTL property P holds of a stochastic model of a biochemical network. As with other statistical verification techniques, the methodology we propose uses a stochastic simulation algorithm for generating execution samples, however there are three key aspects that improve the efficiency: first, the sample generation is driven by on-the-fly verification of P which results in optimal overall simulation time. Second, the confidence interval estimation for the probability of P to hold is based on an efficient variant of the Wilson method which ensures a faster convergence. Third, the whole methodology is designed according to a parallel fashion and a prototype software tool has been implemented that performs the sampling/verification process in parallel over an HPC architecture.

  5. Statistical models for expert judgement and wear prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pulkkinen, U.

    1994-01-01

    This thesis studies the statistical analysis of expert judgements and prediction of wear. The point of view adopted is the one of information theory and Bayesian statistics. A general Bayesian framework for analyzing both the expert judgements and wear prediction is presented. Information theoretic interpretations are given for some averaging techniques used in the determination of consensus distributions. Further, information theoretic models are compared with a Bayesian model. The general Bayesian framework is then applied in analyzing expert judgements based on ordinal comparisons. In this context, the value of information lost in the ordinal comparison process is analyzed by applying decision theoretic concepts. As a generalization of the Bayesian framework, stochastic filtering models for wear prediction are formulated. These models utilize the information from condition monitoring measurements in updating the residual life distribution of mechanical components. Finally, the application of stochastic control models in optimizing operational strategies for inspected components are studied. Monte-Carlo simulation methods, such as the Gibbs sampler and the stochastic quasi-gradient method, are applied in the determination of posterior distributions and in the solution of stochastic optimization problems. (orig.) (57 refs., 7 figs., 1 tab.)

  6. Model-generated air quality statistics for application in vegetation response models in Alberta

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McVehil, G.E.; Nosal, M.

    1990-01-01

    To test and apply vegetation response models in Alberta, air pollution statistics representative of various parts of the Province are required. At this time, air quality monitoring data of the requisite accuracy and time resolution are not available for most parts of Alberta. Therefore, there exists a need to develop appropriate air quality statistics. The objectives of the work reported here were to determine the applicability of model generated air quality statistics and to develop by modelling, realistic and representative time series of hourly SO 2 concentrations that could be used to generate the statistics demanded by vegetation response models

  7. Fitting N-mixture models to count data with unmodeled heterogeneity: Bias, diagnostics, and alternative approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duarte, Adam; Adams, Michael J.; Peterson, James T.

    2018-01-01

    Monitoring animal populations is central to wildlife and fisheries management, and the use of N-mixture models toward these efforts has markedly increased in recent years. Nevertheless, relatively little work has evaluated estimator performance when basic assumptions are violated. Moreover, diagnostics to identify when bias in parameter estimates from N-mixture models is likely is largely unexplored. We simulated count data sets using 837 combinations of detection probability, number of sample units, number of survey occasions, and type and extent of heterogeneity in abundance or detectability. We fit Poisson N-mixture models to these data, quantified the bias associated with each combination, and evaluated if the parametric bootstrap goodness-of-fit (GOF) test can be used to indicate bias in parameter estimates. We also explored if assumption violations can be diagnosed prior to fitting N-mixture models. In doing so, we propose a new model diagnostic, which we term the quasi-coefficient of variation (QCV). N-mixture models performed well when assumptions were met and detection probabilities were moderate (i.e., ≥0.3), and the performance of the estimator improved with increasing survey occasions and sample units. However, the magnitude of bias in estimated mean abundance with even slight amounts of unmodeled heterogeneity was substantial. The parametric bootstrap GOF test did not perform well as a diagnostic for bias in parameter estimates when detectability and sample sizes were low. The results indicate the QCV is useful to diagnose potential bias and that potential bias associated with unidirectional trends in abundance or detectability can be diagnosed using Poisson regression. This study represents the most thorough assessment to date of assumption violations and diagnostics when fitting N-mixture models using the most commonly implemented error distribution. Unbiased estimates of population state variables are needed to properly inform management decision

  8. The GNASH preequilibrium-statistical nuclear model code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arthur, E. D.

    1988-01-01

    The following report is based on materials presented in a series of lectures at the International Center for Theoretical Physics, Trieste, which were designed to describe the GNASH preequilibrium statistical model code and its use. An overview is provided of the code with emphasis upon code's calculational capabilities and the theoretical models that have been implemented in it. Two sample problems are discussed, the first dealing with neutron reactions on 58 Ni. the second illustrates the fission model capabilities implemented in the code and involves n + 235 U reactions. Finally a description is provided of current theoretical model and code development underway. Examples of calculated results using these new capabilities are also given. 19 refs., 17 figs., 3 tabs

  9. The Impact of Statistical Leakage Models on Design Yield Estimation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rouwaida Kanj

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Device mismatch and process variation models play a key role in determining the functionality and yield of sub-100 nm design. Average characteristics are often of interest, such as the average leakage current or the average read delay. However, detecting rare functional fails is critical for memory design and designers often seek techniques that enable accurately modeling such events. Extremely leaky devices can inflict functionality fails. The plurality of leaky devices on a bitline increase the dimensionality of the yield estimation problem. Simplified models are possible by adopting approximations to the underlying sum of lognormals. The implications of such approximations on tail probabilities may in turn bias the yield estimate. We review different closed form approximations and compare against the CDF matching method, which is shown to be most effective method for accurate statistical leakage modeling.

  10. Schedulability of Herschel revisited using statistical model checking

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    David, Alexandre; Larsen, Kim Guldstrand; Legay, Axel

    2015-01-01

    -approximation technique. We can safely conclude that the system is schedulable for varying values of BCET. For the cases where deadlines are violated, we use polyhedra to try to confirm the witnesses. Our alternative method to confirm non-schedulability uses statistical model-checking (SMC) to generate counter...... and blocking times of tasks. Consequently, the method may falsely declare deadline violations that will never occur during execution. This paper is a continuation of previous work of the authors in applying extended timed automata model checking (using the tool UPPAAL) to obtain more exact schedulability...... analysis, here in the presence of non-deterministic computation times of tasks given by intervals [BCET,WCET]. Computation intervals with preemptive schedulers make the schedulability analysis of the resulting task model undecidable. Our contribution is to propose a combination of model checking techniques...

  11. Fast optimization of statistical potentials for structurally constrained phylogenetic models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rodrigue Nicolas

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Statistical approaches for protein design are relevant in the field of molecular evolutionary studies. In recent years, new, so-called structurally constrained (SC models of protein-coding sequence evolution have been proposed, which use statistical potentials to assess sequence-structure compatibility. In a previous work, we defined a statistical framework for optimizing knowledge-based potentials especially suited to SC models. Our method used the maximum likelihood principle and provided what we call the joint potentials. However, the method required numerical estimations by the use of computationally heavy Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling algorithms. Results Here, we develop an alternative optimization procedure, based on a leave-one-out argument coupled to fast gradient descent algorithms. We assess that the leave-one-out potential yields very similar results to the joint approach developed previously, both in terms of the resulting potential parameters, and by Bayes factor evaluation in a phylogenetic context. On the other hand, the leave-one-out approach results in a considerable computational benefit (up to a 1,000 fold decrease in computational time for the optimization procedure. Conclusion Due to its computational speed, the optimization method we propose offers an attractive alternative for the design and empirical evaluation of alternative forms of potentials, using large data sets and high-dimensional parameterizations.

  12. Estimating Predictive Variance for Statistical Gas Distribution Modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lilienthal, Achim J.; Asadi, Sahar; Reggente, Matteo

    2009-01-01

    Recent publications in statistical gas distribution modelling have proposed algorithms that model mean and variance of a distribution. This paper argues that estimating the predictive concentration variance entails not only a gradual improvement but is rather a significant step to advance the field. This is, first, since the models much better fit the particular structure of gas distributions, which exhibit strong fluctuations with considerable spatial variations as a result of the intermittent character of gas dispersal. Second, because estimating the predictive variance allows to evaluate the model quality in terms of the data likelihood. This offers a solution to the problem of ground truth evaluation, which has always been a critical issue for gas distribution modelling. It also enables solid comparisons of different modelling approaches, and provides the means to learn meta parameters of the model, to determine when the model should be updated or re-initialised, or to suggest new measurement locations based on the current model. We also point out directions of related ongoing or potential future research work.

  13. Statistical Downscaling of Temperature with the Random Forest Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bo Pang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The issues with downscaling the outputs of a global climate model (GCM to a regional scale that are appropriate to hydrological impact studies are investigated using the random forest (RF model, which has been shown to be superior for large dataset analysis and variable importance evaluation. The RF is proposed for downscaling daily mean temperature in the Pearl River basin in southern China. Four downscaling models were developed and validated by using the observed temperature series from 61 national stations and large-scale predictor variables derived from the National Center for Environmental Prediction–National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis dataset. The proposed RF downscaling model was compared to multiple linear regression, artificial neural network, and support vector machine models. Principal component analysis (PCA and partial correlation analysis (PAR were used in the predictor selection for the other models for a comprehensive study. It was shown that the model efficiency of the RF model was higher than that of the other models according to five selected criteria. By evaluating the predictor importance, the RF could choose the best predictor combination without using PCA and PAR. The results indicate that the RF is a feasible tool for the statistical downscaling of temperature.

  14. Graph theory applied to noise and vibration control in statistical energy analysis models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guasch, Oriol; Cortés, Lluís

    2009-06-01

    A fundamental aspect of noise and vibration control in statistical energy analysis (SEA) models consists in first identifying and then reducing the energy flow paths between subsystems. In this work, it is proposed to make use of some results from graph theory to address both issues. On the one hand, linear and path algebras applied to adjacency matrices of SEA graphs are used to determine the existence of any order paths between subsystems, counting and labeling them, finding extremal paths, or determining the power flow contributions from groups of paths. On the other hand, a strategy is presented that makes use of graph cut algorithms to reduce the energy flow from a source subsystem to a receiver one, modifying as few internal and coupling loss factors as possible.

  15. Statistics of excitations in the electron glass model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palassini, Matteo

    2011-03-01

    We study the statistics of elementary excitations in the classical electron glass model of localized electrons interacting via the unscreened Coulomb interaction in the presence of disorder. We reconsider the long-standing puzzle of the exponential suppression of the single-particle density of states near the Fermi level, by measuring accurately the density of states of charged and electron-hole pair excitations via finite temperature Monte Carlo simulation and zero-temperature relaxation. We also investigate the statistics of large charge rearrangements after a perturbation of the system, which may shed some light on the slow relaxation and glassy phenomena recently observed in a variety of Anderson insulators. In collaboration with Martin Goethe.

  16. Hybrid perturbation methods based on statistical time series models

    Science.gov (United States)

    San-Juan, Juan Félix; San-Martín, Montserrat; Pérez, Iván; López, Rosario

    2016-04-01

    In this work we present a new methodology for orbit propagation, the hybrid perturbation theory, based on the combination of an integration method and a prediction technique. The former, which can be a numerical, analytical or semianalytical theory, generates an initial approximation that contains some inaccuracies derived from the fact that, in order to simplify the expressions and subsequent computations, not all the involved forces are taken into account and only low-order terms are considered, not to mention the fact that mathematical models of perturbations not always reproduce physical phenomena with absolute precision. The prediction technique, which can be based on either statistical time series models or computational intelligence methods, is aimed at modelling and reproducing missing dynamics in the previously integrated approximation. This combination results in the precision improvement of conventional numerical, analytical and semianalytical theories for determining the position and velocity of any artificial satellite or space debris object. In order to validate this methodology, we present a family of three hybrid orbit propagators formed by the combination of three different orders of approximation of an analytical theory and a statistical time series model, and analyse their capability to process the effect produced by the flattening of the Earth. The three considered analytical components are the integration of the Kepler problem, a first-order and a second-order analytical theories, whereas the prediction technique is the same in the three cases, namely an additive Holt-Winters method.

  17. Bayesian Sensitivity Analysis of Statistical Models with Missing Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Hongtu; Ibrahim, Joseph G; Tang, Niansheng

    2014-04-01

    Methods for handling missing data depend strongly on the mechanism that generated the missing values, such as missing completely at random (MCAR) or missing at random (MAR), as well as other distributional and modeling assumptions at various stages. It is well known that the resulting estimates and tests may be sensitive to these assumptions as well as to outlying observations. In this paper, we introduce various perturbations to modeling assumptions and individual observations, and then develop a formal sensitivity analysis to assess these perturbations in the Bayesian analysis of statistical models with missing data. We develop a geometric framework, called the Bayesian perturbation manifold, to characterize the intrinsic structure of these perturbations. We propose several intrinsic influence measures to perform sensitivity analysis and quantify the effect of various perturbations to statistical models. We use the proposed sensitivity analysis procedure to systematically investigate the tenability of the non-ignorable missing at random (NMAR) assumption. Simulation studies are conducted to evaluate our methods, and a dataset is analyzed to illustrate the use of our diagnostic measures.

  18. A statistical model for interpreting computerized dynamic posturography data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feiveson, Alan H.; Metter, E. Jeffrey; Paloski, William H.

    2002-01-01

    Computerized dynamic posturography (CDP) is widely used for assessment of altered balance control. CDP trials are quantified using the equilibrium score (ES), which ranges from zero to 100, as a decreasing function of peak sway angle. The problem of how best to model and analyze ESs from a controlled study is considered. The ES often exhibits a skewed distribution in repeated trials, which can lead to incorrect inference when applying standard regression or analysis of variance models. Furthermore, CDP trials are terminated when a patient loses balance. In these situations, the ES is not observable, but is assigned the lowest possible score--zero. As a result, the response variable has a mixed discrete-continuous distribution, further compromising inference obtained by standard statistical methods. Here, we develop alternative methodology for analyzing ESs under a stochastic model extending the ES to a continuous latent random variable that always exists, but is unobserved in the event of a fall. Loss of balance occurs conditionally, with probability depending on the realized latent ES. After fitting the model by a form of quasi-maximum-likelihood, one may perform statistical inference to assess the effects of explanatory variables. An example is provided, using data from the NIH/NIA Baltimore Longitudinal Study on Aging.

  19. Model output statistics applied to wind power prediction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Joensen, A; Giebel, G; Landberg, L [Risoe National Lab., Roskilde (Denmark); Madsen, H; Nielsen, H A [The Technical Univ. of Denmark, Dept. of Mathematical Modelling, Lyngby (Denmark)

    1999-03-01

    Being able to predict the output of a wind farm online for a day or two in advance has significant advantages for utilities, such as better possibility to schedule fossil fuelled power plants and a better position on electricity spot markets. In this paper prediction methods based on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models are considered. The spatial resolution used in NWP models implies that these predictions are not valid locally at a specific wind farm. Furthermore, due to the non-stationary nature and complexity of the processes in the atmosphere, and occasional changes of NWP models, the deviation between the predicted and the measured wind will be time dependent. If observational data is available, and if the deviation between the predictions and the observations exhibits systematic behavior, this should be corrected for; if statistical methods are used, this approaches is usually referred to as MOS (Model Output Statistics). The influence of atmospheric turbulence intensity, topography, prediction horizon length and auto-correlation of wind speed and power is considered, and to take the time-variations into account, adaptive estimation methods are applied. Three estimation techniques are considered and compared, Extended Kalman Filtering, recursive least squares and a new modified recursive least squares algorithm. (au) EU-JOULE-3. 11 refs.

  20. Prediction of dimethyl disulfide levels from biosolids using statistical modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gabriel, Steven A; Vilalai, Sirapong; Arispe, Susanna; Kim, Hyunook; McConnell, Laura L; Torrents, Alba; Peot, Christopher; Ramirez, Mark

    2005-01-01

    Two statistical models were used to predict the concentration of dimethyl disulfide (DMDS) released from biosolids produced by an advanced wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) located in Washington, DC, USA. The plant concentrates sludge from primary sedimentation basins in gravity thickeners (GT) and sludge from secondary sedimentation basins in dissolved air flotation (DAF) thickeners. The thickened sludge is pumped into blending tanks and then fed into centrifuges for dewatering. The dewatered sludge is then conditioned with lime before trucking out from the plant. DMDS, along with other volatile sulfur and nitrogen-containing chemicals, is known to contribute to biosolids odors. These models identified oxidation/reduction potential (ORP) values of a GT and DAF, the amount of sludge dewatered by centrifuges, and the blend ratio between GT thickened sludge and DAF thickened sludge in blending tanks as control variables. The accuracy of the developed regression models was evaluated by checking the adjusted R2 of the regression as well as the signs of coefficients associated with each variable. In general, both models explained observed DMDS levels in sludge headspace samples. The adjusted R2 value of the regression models 1 and 2 were 0.79 and 0.77, respectively. Coefficients for each regression model also had the correct sign. Using the developed models, plant operators can adjust the controllable variables to proactively decrease this odorant. Therefore, these models are a useful tool in biosolids management at WWTPs.

  1. Characterizing and predicting ultrafine particle counts in Canadian classrooms during the winter months: model development and evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weichenthal, Scott; Dufresne, André; Infante-Rivard, Claire; Joseph, Lawrence

    2008-03-01

    School classrooms are potentially important micro-environments for childhood exposures owing to the large amount of time children spend in these locations. While a number of airborne contaminants may be present in schools, to date few studies have examined ultrafine particle (0.02-1 microm) (UFP) levels in classrooms. In this study, our objective was to characterize UFP counts (cm(-3)) in classrooms during the winter months and to develop a model to predict such exposures based on ambient weather conditions and outdoor UFPs, as well as classroom characteristics such as size, temperature, relative humidity, and carbon dioxide levels. In total, UFP count data were collected on 60 occasions in 37 occupied classrooms at one elementary school and one secondary school in Pembroke, Ontario. On average, outdoor UFP levels exceeded indoor measures by 8989 cm(-3) (95% confidence interval (CI): 6382, 11596), and classroom UFP counts were similar at both schools with a combined average of 5017 cm(-3) (95% CI: 4300, 5734). Of the variables examined only wind speed and outdoor UFPs were important determinants of classrooms UFP levels. Specifically, each 10 km/h increase in wind speed corresponded to an 1873 cm(-3) (95% CI: 825, 2920) decrease in classroom UFP counts, and each 10000 cm(-3) increase in outdoor UFPs corresponded to a 1550 cm(-3) (95% CI: 930, 2171) increase in classroom UFP levels. However, high correlations between these two predictors meant that the independent effects of wind speed and outdoor UFPs could not be separated in multivariable models, and only outdoor UFP counts were included in the final predictive model. To evaluate model performance, classroom UFP counts were collected for 8 days at two new schools and compared to predicted values based on outdoor UFP measures. A moderate correlation was observed between measured and predicted classroom UFP counts (r=0.63) for both schools combined, but this relationship was not valid on days in which a strong

  2. Characterizing and predicting ultrafine particle counts in Canadian classrooms during the winter months: Model development and evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weichenthal, Scott; Dufresne, Andre; Infante-Rivard, Claire; Joseph, Lawrence

    2008-01-01

    School classrooms are potentially important micro-environments for childhood exposures owing to the large amount of time children spend in these locations. While a number of airborne contaminants may be present in schools, to date few studies have examined ultrafine particle (0.02-1 μm) (UFP) levels in classrooms. In this study, our objective was to characterize UFP counts (cm -3 ) in classrooms during the winter months and to develop a model to predict such exposures based on ambient weather conditions and outdoor UFPs, as well as classroom characteristics such as size, temperature, relative humidity, and carbon dioxide levels. In total, UFP count data were collected on 60 occasions in 37 occupied classrooms at one elementary school and one secondary school in Pembroke, Ontario. On average, outdoor UFP levels exceeded indoor measures by 8989 cm -3 (95% confidence interval (CI): 6382, 11 596), and classroom UFP counts were similar at both schools with a combined average of 5017 cm -3 (95% CI: 4300, 5734). Of the variables examined only wind speed and outdoor UFPs were important determinants of classrooms UFP levels. Specifically, each 10 km/h increase in wind speed corresponded to an 1873 cm -3 (95% CI: 825, 2920) decrease in classroom UFP counts, and each 10 000 cm -3 increase in outdoor UFPs corresponded to a 1550 cm -3 (95% CI: 930, 2171) increase in classroom UFP levels. However, high correlations between these two predictors meant that the independent effects of wind speed and outdoor UFPs could not be separated in multivariable models, and only outdoor UFP counts were included in the final predictive model. To evaluate model performance, classroom UFP counts were collected for 8 days at two new schools and compared to predicted values based on outdoor UFP measures. A moderate correlation was observed between measured and predicted classroom UFP counts (r=0.63) for both schools combined, but this relationship was not valid on days in which a strong indoor UFP

  3. Statistical approach for uncertainty quantification of experimental modal model parameters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Luczak, M.; Peeters, B.; Kahsin, M.

    2014-01-01

    Composite materials are widely used in manufacture of aerospace and wind energy structural components. These load carrying structures are subjected to dynamic time-varying loading conditions. Robust structural dynamics identification procedure impose tight constraints on the quality of modal models...... represent different complexity levels ranging from coupon, through sub-component up to fully assembled aerospace and wind energy structural components made of composite materials. The proposed method is demonstrated on two application cases of a small and large wind turbine blade........ This paper aims at a systematic approach for uncertainty quantification of the parameters of the modal models estimated from experimentally obtained data. Statistical analysis of modal parameters is implemented to derive an assessment of the entire modal model uncertainty measure. Investigated structures...

  4. Statistical mechanics of sparse generalization and graphical model selection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lage-Castellanos, Alejandro; Pagnani, Andrea; Weigt, Martin

    2009-01-01

    One of the crucial tasks in many inference problems is the extraction of an underlying sparse graphical model from a given number of high-dimensional measurements. In machine learning, this is frequently achieved using, as a penalty term, the L p norm of the model parameters, with p≤1 for efficient dilution. Here we propose a statistical mechanics analysis of the problem in the setting of perceptron memorization and generalization. Using a replica approach, we are able to evaluate the relative performance of naive dilution (obtained by learning without dilution, following by applying a threshold to the model parameters), L 1 dilution (which is frequently used in convex optimization) and L 0 dilution (which is optimal but computationally hard to implement). Whereas both L p diluted approaches clearly outperform the naive approach, we find a small region where L 0 works almost perfectly and strongly outperforms the simpler to implement L 1 dilution

  5. Exploiting linkage disequilibrium in statistical modelling in quantitative genomics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wang, Lei

    Alleles at two loci are said to be in linkage disequilibrium (LD) when they are correlated or statistically dependent. Genomic prediction and gene mapping rely on the existence of LD between gentic markers and causul variants of complex traits. In the first part of the thesis, a novel method...... to quantify and visualize local variation in LD along chromosomes in describet, and applied to characterize LD patters at the local and genome-wide scale in three Danish pig breeds. In the second part, different ways of taking LD into account in genomic prediction models are studied. One approach is to use...... the recently proposed antedependence models, which treat neighbouring marker effects as correlated; another approach involves use of haplotype block information derived using the program Beagle. The overall conclusion is that taking LD information into account in genomic prediction models potentially improves...

  6. A statistical model for field emission in superconducting cavities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Padamsee, H.; Green, K.; Jost, W.; Wright, B.

    1993-01-01

    A statistical model is used to account for several features of performance of an ensemble of superconducting cavities. The input parameters are: the number of emitters/area, a distribution function for emitter β values, a distribution function for emissive areas, and a processing threshold. The power deposited by emitters is calculated from the field emission current and electron impact energy. The model can successfully account for the fraction of tests that reach the maximum field Epk in an ensemble of cavities, for eg, 1-cells at sign 3 GHz or 5-cells at sign 1.5 GHz. The model is used to predict the level of power needed to successfully process cavities of various surface areas with high pulsed power processing (HPP)

  7. Atmospheric statistical dynamic models. Model performance: the Lawrence Livermore Laboratoy Zonal Atmospheric Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Potter, G.L.; Ellsaesser, H.W.; MacCracken, M.C.; Luther, F.M.

    1978-06-01

    Results from the zonal model indicate quite reasonable agreement with observation in terms of the parameters and processes that influence the radiation and energy balance calculations. The model produces zonal statistics similar to those from general circulation models, and has also been shown to produce similar responses in sensitivity studies. Further studies of model performance are planned, including: comparison with July data; comparison of temperature and moisture transport and wind fields for winter and summer months; and a tabulation of atmospheric energetics. Based on these preliminary performance studies, however, it appears that the zonal model can be used in conjunction with more complex models to help unravel the problems of understanding the processes governing present climate and climate change. As can be seen in the subsequent paper on model sensitivity studies, in addition to reduced cost of computation, the zonal model facilitates analysis of feedback mechanisms and simplifies analysis of the interactions between processes

  8. A Statistical Graphical Model of the California Reservoir System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taeb, A.; Reager, J. T.; Turmon, M.; Chandrasekaran, V.

    2017-11-01

    The recent California drought has highlighted the potential vulnerability of the state's water management infrastructure to multiyear dry intervals. Due to the high complexity of the network, dynamic storage changes in California reservoirs on a state-wide scale have previously been difficult to model using either traditional statistical or physical approaches. Indeed, although there is a significant line of research on exploring models for single (or a small number of) reservoirs, these approaches are not amenable to a system-wide modeling of the California reservoir network due to the spatial and hydrological heterogeneities of the system. In this work, we develop a state-wide statistical graphical model to characterize the dependencies among a collection of 55 major California reservoirs across the state; this model is defined with respect to a graph in which the nodes index reservoirs and the edges specify the relationships or dependencies between reservoirs. We obtain and validate this model in a data-driven manner based on reservoir volumes over the period 2003-2016. A key feature of our framework is a quantification of the effects of external phenomena that influence the entire reservoir network. We further characterize the degree to which physical factors (e.g., state-wide Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), average temperature, snow pack) and economic factors (e.g., consumer price index, number of agricultural workers) explain these external influences. As a consequence of this analysis, we obtain a system-wide health diagnosis of the reservoir network as a function of PDSI.

  9. MASKED AREAS IN SHEAR PEAK STATISTICS: A FORWARD MODELING APPROACH

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bard, D.; Kratochvil, J. M.; Dawson, W.

    2016-01-01

    The statistics of shear peaks have been shown to provide valuable cosmological information beyond the power spectrum, and will be an important constraint of models of cosmology in forthcoming astronomical surveys. Surveys include masked areas due to bright stars, bad pixels etc., which must be accounted for in producing constraints on cosmology from shear maps. We advocate a forward-modeling approach, where the impacts of masking and other survey artifacts are accounted for in the theoretical prediction of cosmological parameters, rather than correcting survey data to remove them. We use masks based on the Deep Lens Survey, and explore the impact of up to 37% of the survey area being masked on LSST and DES-scale surveys. By reconstructing maps of aperture mass the masking effect is smoothed out, resulting in up to 14% smaller statistical uncertainties compared to simply reducing the survey area by the masked area. We show that, even in the presence of large survey masks, the bias in cosmological parameter estimation produced in the forward-modeling process is ≈1%, dominated by bias caused by limited simulation volume. We also explore how this potential bias scales with survey area and evaluate how much small survey areas are impacted by the differences in cosmological structure in the data and simulated volumes, due to cosmic variance

  10. Statistical multistep direct and statistical multistep compound models for calculations of nuclear data for applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seeliger, D.

    1993-01-01

    This contribution contains a brief presentation and comparison of the different Statistical Multistep Approaches, presently available for practical nuclear data calculations. (author). 46 refs, 5 figs

  11. A Tensor Statistical Model for Quantifying Dynamic Functional Connectivity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Yingying; Zhu, Xiaofeng; Kim, Minjeong; Yan, Jin; Wu, Guorong

    2017-06-01

    Functional connectivity (FC) has been widely investigated in many imaging-based neuroscience and clinical studies. Since functional Magnetic Resonance Image (MRI) signal is just an indirect reflection of brain activity, it is difficult to accurately quantify the FC strength only based on signal correlation. To address this limitation, we propose a learning-based tensor model to derive high sensitivity and specificity connectome biomarkers at the individual level from resting-state fMRI images. First, we propose a learning-based approach to estimate the intrinsic functional connectivity. In addition to the low level region-to-region signal correlation, latent module-to-module connection is also estimated and used to provide high level heuristics for measuring connectivity strength. Furthermore, sparsity constraint is employed to automatically remove the spurious connections, thus alleviating the issue of searching for optimal threshold. Second, we integrate our learning-based approach with the sliding-window technique to further reveal the dynamics of functional connectivity. Specifically, we stack the functional connectivity matrix within each sliding window and form a 3D tensor where the third dimension denotes for time. Then we obtain dynamic functional connectivity (dFC) for each individual subject by simultaneously estimating the within-sliding-window functional connectivity and characterizing the across-sliding-window temporal dynamics. Third, in order to enhance the robustness of the connectome patterns extracted from dFC, we extend the individual-based 3D tensors to a population-based 4D tensor (with the fourth dimension stands for the training subjects) and learn the statistics of connectome patterns via 4D tensor analysis. Since our 4D tensor model jointly (1) optimizes dFC for each training subject and (2) captures the principle connectome patterns, our statistical model gains more statistical power of representing new subject than current state

  12. Development of modelling algorithm of technological systems by statistical tests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shemshura, E. A.; Otrokov, A. V.; Chernyh, V. G.

    2018-03-01

    The paper tackles the problem of economic assessment of design efficiency regarding various technological systems at the stage of their operation. The modelling algorithm of a technological system was performed using statistical tests and with account of the reliability index allows estimating the level of machinery technical excellence and defining the efficiency of design reliability against its performance. Economic feasibility of its application shall be determined on the basis of service quality of a technological system with further forecasting of volumes and the range of spare parts supply.

  13. New statistical model of inelastic fast neutron scattering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stancicj, V.

    1975-07-01

    A new statistical model for treating the fast neutron inelastic scattering has been proposed by using the general expressions of the double differential cross section in impuls approximation. The use of the Fermi-Dirac distribution of nucleons makes it possible to derive an analytical expression of the fast neutron inelastic scattering kernel including the angular momenta coupling. The obtained values of the inelastic fast neutron cross section calculated from the derived expression of the scattering kernel are in a good agreement with the experiments. A main advantage of the derived expressions is in their simplicity for the practical calculations

  14. Hyperparameterization of soil moisture statistical models for North America with Ensemble Learning Models (Elm)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steinberg, P. D.; Brener, G.; Duffy, D.; Nearing, G. S.; Pelissier, C.

    2017-12-01

    Hyperparameterization, of statistical models, i.e. automated model scoring and selection, such as evolutionary algorithms, grid searches, and randomized searches, can improve forecast model skill by reducing errors associated with model parameterization, model structure, and statistical properties of training data. Ensemble Learning Models (Elm), and the related Earthio package, provide a flexible interface for automating the selection of parameters and model structure for machine learning models common in climate science and land cover classification, offering convenient tools for loading NetCDF, HDF, Grib, or GeoTiff files, decomposition methods like PCA and manifold learning, and parallel training and prediction with unsupervised and supervised classification, clustering, and regression estimators. Continuum Analytics is using Elm to experiment with statistical soil moisture forecasting based on meteorological forcing data from NASA's North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS). There Elm is using the NSGA-2 multiobjective optimization algorithm for optimizing statistical preprocessing of forcing data to improve goodness-of-fit for statistical models (i.e. feature engineering). This presentation will discuss Elm and its components, including dask (distributed task scheduling), xarray (data structures for n-dimensional arrays), and scikit-learn (statistical preprocessing, clustering, classification, regression), and it will show how NSGA-2 is being used for automate selection of soil moisture forecast statistical models for North America.

  15. Statistical Models for Inferring Vegetation Composition from Fossil Pollen

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paciorek, C.; McLachlan, J. S.; Shang, Z.

    2011-12-01

    Fossil pollen provide information about vegetation composition that can be used to help understand how vegetation has changed over the past. However, these data have not traditionally been analyzed in a way that allows for statistical inference about spatio-temporal patterns and trends. We build a Bayesian hierarchical model called STEPPS (Spatio-Temporal Empirical Prediction from Pollen in Sediments) that predicts forest composition in southern New England, USA, over the last two millenia based on fossil pollen. The critical relationships between abundances of tree taxa in the pollen record and abundances in actual vegetation are estimated using modern (Forest Inventory Analysis) data and (witness tree) data from colonial records. This gives us two time points at which both pollen and direct vegetation data are available. Based on these relationships, and incorporating our uncertainty about them, we predict forest composition using fossil pollen. We estimate the spatial distribution and relative abundances of tree species and draw inference about how these patterns have changed over time. Finally, we describe ongoing work to extend the modeling to the upper Midwest of the U.S., including an approach to infer tree density and thereby estimate the prairie-forest boundary in Minnesota and Wisconsin. This work is part of the PalEON project, which brings together a team of ecosystem modelers, paleoecologists, and statisticians with the goal of reconstructing vegetation responses to climate during the last two millenia in the northeastern and midwestern United States. The estimates from the statistical modeling will be used to assess and calibrate ecosystem models that are used to project ecological changes in response to global change.

  16. Marginalized multilevel hurdle and zero-inflated models for overdispersed and correlated count data with excess zeros.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kassahun, Wondwosen; Neyens, Thomas; Molenberghs, Geert; Faes, Christel; Verbeke, Geert

    2014-11-10

    Count data are collected repeatedly over time in many applications, such as biology, epidemiology, and public health. Such data are often characterized by the following three features. First, correlation due to the repeated measures is usually accounted for using subject-specific random effects, which are assumed to be normally distributed. Second, the sample variance may exceed the mean, and hence, the theoretical mean-variance relationship is violated, leading to overdispersion. This is usually allowed for based on a hierarchical approach, combining a Poisson model with gamma distributed random effects. Third, an excess of zeros beyond what standard count distributions can predict is often handled by either the hurdle or the zero-inflated model. A zero-inflated model assumes two processes as sources of zeros and combines a count distribution with a discrete point mass as a mixture, while the hurdle model separately handles zero observations and positive counts, where then a truncated-at-zero count distribution is used for the non-zero state. In practice, however, all these three features can appear simultaneously. Hence, a modeling framework that incorporates all three is necessary, and this presents challenges for the data analysis. Such models, when conditionally specified, will naturally have a subject-specific interpretation. However, adopting their purposefully modified marginalized versions leads to a direct marginal or population-averaged interpretation for parameter estimates of covariate effects, which is the primary interest in many applications. In this paper, we present a marginalized hurdle model and a marginalized zero-inflated model for correlated and overdispersed count data with excess zero observations and then illustrate these further with two case studies. The first dataset focuses on the Anopheles mosquito density around a hydroelectric dam, while adolescents' involvement in work, to earn money and support their families or themselves, is

  17. Statistical molecular design of balanced compound libraries for QSAR modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linusson, A; Elofsson, M; Andersson, I E; Dahlgren, M K

    2010-01-01

    A fundamental step in preclinical drug development is the computation of quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) models, i.e. models that link chemical features of compounds with activities towards a target macromolecule associated with the initiation or progression of a disease. QSAR models are computed by combining information on the physicochemical and structural features of a library of congeneric compounds, typically assembled from two or more building blocks, and biological data from one or more in vitro assays. Since the models provide information on features affecting the compounds' biological activity they can be used as guides for further optimization. However, in order for a QSAR model to be relevant to the targeted disease, and drug development in general, the compound library used must contain molecules with balanced variation of the features spanning the chemical space believed to be important for interaction with the biological target. In addition, the assays used must be robust and deliver high quality data that are directly related to the function of the biological target and the associated disease state. In this review, we discuss and exemplify the concept of statistical molecular design (SMD) in the selection of building blocks and final synthetic targets (i.e. compounds to synthesize) to generate information-rich, balanced libraries for biological testing and computation of QSAR models.

  18. A Monte Carlo Model for Neutron Coincidence Counting with Fast Organic Liquid Scintillation Detectors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gamage, Kelum A.A.; Joyce, Malcolm J.; Cave, Frank D.

    2013-06-01

    Neutron coincidence counting is an established, nondestructive method for the qualitative and quantitative analysis of nuclear materials. Several even-numbered nuclei of the actinide isotopes, and especially even-numbered plutonium isotopes, undergo spontaneous fission, resulting in the emission of neutrons which are correlated in time. The characteristics of this i.e. the multiplicity can be used to identify each isotope in question. Similarly, the corresponding characteristics of isotopes that are susceptible to stimulated fission are somewhat isotope-related, and also dependent on the energy of the incident neutron that stimulates the fission event, and this can hence be used to identify and quantify isotopes also. Most of the neutron coincidence counters currently used are based on 3 He gas tubes. In the 3 He-filled gas proportional-counter, the (n, p) reaction is largely responsible for the detection of slow neutrons and hence neutrons have to be slowed down to thermal energies. As a result, moderator and shielding materials are essential components of many systems designed to assess quantities of fissile materials. The use of a moderator, however, extends the die-away time of the detector necessitating a larger coincidence window and, further, 3 He is now in short supply and expensive. In this paper, a simulation based on the Monte Carlo method is described which has been performed using MCNPX 2.6.0, to model the geometry of a sector-shaped liquid scintillation detector in response to coincident neutron events. The detection of neutrons from a mixed-oxide (MOX) fuel pellet using an organic liquid scintillator has been simulated for different thicknesses of scintillators. In this new neutron detector, a layer of lead has been used to reduce the gamma-ray fluence reaching the scintillator. The effect of lead for neutron detection has also been estimated by considering different thicknesses of lead layers. (authors)

  19. Counting cormorants

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bregnballe, Thomas; Carss, David N; Lorentsen, Svein-Håkon

    2013-01-01

    This chapter focuses on Cormorant population counts for both summer (i.e. breeding) and winter (i.e. migration, winter roosts) seasons. It also explains differences in the data collected from undertaking ‘day’ versus ‘roost’ counts, gives some definitions of the term ‘numbers’, and presents two...

  20. Incorporating Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte Ratio and Platelet-to-lymphocyte Ratio in Place of Neutrophil Count and Platelet Count Improves Prognostic Accuracy of the International Metastatic Renal Cell Carcinoma Database Consortium Model

    OpenAIRE

    Chrom, Pawel; Stec, Rafal; Bodnar, Lubomir; Szczylik, Cezary

    2017-01-01

    Purpose The study investigated whether a replacement of neutrophil count and platelet count by neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) within the International Metastatic Renal Cell Carcinoma Database Consortium (IMDC) model would improve its prognostic accuracy. Materials and Methods This retrospective analysis included consecutive patients with metastatic renal cell carcinoma treated with first-line tyrosine kinase inhibitors. The IMDC and modified-IMDC m...

  1. A new framework of statistical inferences based on the valid joint sampling distribution of the observed counts in an incomplete contingency table.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Guo-Liang; Li, Hui-Qiong

    2017-08-01

    Some existing confidence interval methods and hypothesis testing methods in the analysis of a contingency table with incomplete observations in both margins entirely depend on an underlying assumption that the sampling distribution of the observed counts is a product of independent multinomial/binomial distributions for complete and incomplete counts. However, it can be shown that this independency assumption is incorrect and can result in unreliable conclusions because of the under-estimation of the uncertainty. Therefore, the first objective of this paper is to derive the valid joint sampling distribution of the observed counts in a contingency table with incomplete observations in both margins. The second objective is to provide a new framework for analyzing incomplete contingency tables based on the derived joint sampling distribution of the observed counts by developing a Fisher scoring algorithm to calculate maximum likelihood estimates of parameters of interest, the bootstrap confidence interval methods, and the bootstrap testing hypothesis methods. We compare the differences between the valid sampling distribution and the sampling distribution under the independency assumption. Simulation studies showed that average/expected confidence-interval widths of parameters based on the sampling distribution under the independency assumption are shorter than those based on the new sampling distribution, yielding unrealistic results. A real data set is analyzed to illustrate the application of the new sampling distribution for incomplete contingency tables and the analysis results again confirm the conclusions obtained from the simulation studies.

  2. Improovement of statistical counting conditions for the determination of chloride in Beams leaves (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) by thermal neutron activation analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferraz, E.S.B.; Nascimento Filho, V.F.

    1975-04-01

    The use of two radiation peaks from the same gamma-emitting source in the calculation of the corresponding liquid counting rate in multi-element gamma spectrometry is discussed. It is shown that, in the determination of chlorine in Phaseolus vulgaris L. using neutronic activation analysis will result in an increase in accuracy of measurement of approximately 40%

  3. A combined statistical model for multiple motifs search

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gao Lifeng; Liu Xin; Guan Shan

    2008-01-01

    Transcription factor binding sites (TFBS) play key roles in genebior 6.8 wavelet expression and regulation. They are short sequence segments with definite structure and can be recognized by the corresponding transcription factors correctly. From the viewpoint of statistics, the candidates of TFBS should be quite different from the segments that are randomly combined together by nucleotide. This paper proposes a combined statistical model for finding over-represented short sequence segments in different kinds of data set. While the over-represented short sequence segment is described by position weight matrix, the nucleotide distribution at most sites of the segment should be far from the background nucleotide distribution. The central idea of this approach is to search for such kind of signals. This algorithm is tested on 3 data sets, including binding sites data set of cyclic AMP receptor protein in E.coli, PlantProm DB which is a non-redundant collection of proximal promoter sequences from different species, collection of the intergenic sequences of the whole genome of E.Coli. Even though the complexity of these three data sets is quite different, the results show that this model is rather general and sensible. (general)

  4. Huffman and linear scanning methods with statistical language models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roark, Brian; Fried-Oken, Melanie; Gibbons, Chris

    2015-03-01

    Current scanning access methods for text generation in AAC devices are limited to relatively few options, most notably row/column variations within a matrix. We present Huffman scanning, a new method for applying statistical language models to binary-switch, static-grid typing AAC interfaces, and compare it to other scanning options under a variety of conditions. We present results for 16 adults without disabilities and one 36-year-old man with locked-in syndrome who presents with complex communication needs and uses AAC scanning devices for writing. Huffman scanning with a statistical language model yielded significant typing speedups for the 16 participants without disabilities versus any of the other methods tested, including two row/column scanning methods. A similar pattern of results was found with the individual with locked-in syndrome. Interestingly, faster typing speeds were obtained with Huffman scanning using a more leisurely scan rate than relatively fast individually calibrated scan rates. Overall, the results reported here demonstrate great promise for the usability of Huffman scanning as a faster alternative to row/column scanning.

  5. Statistical Method to Overcome Overfitting Issue in Rational Function Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alizadeh Moghaddam, S. H.; Mokhtarzade, M.; Alizadeh Naeini, A.; Alizadeh Moghaddam, S. A.

    2017-09-01

    Rational function models (RFMs) are known as one of the most appealing models which are extensively applied in geometric correction of satellite images and map production. Overfitting is a common issue, in the case of terrain dependent RFMs, that degrades the accuracy of RFMs-derived geospatial products. This issue, resulting from the high number of RFMs' parameters, leads to ill-posedness of the RFMs. To tackle this problem, in this study, a fast and robust statistical approach is proposed and compared to Tikhonov regularization (TR) method, as a frequently-used solution to RFMs' overfitting. In the proposed method, a statistical test, namely, significance test is applied to search for the RFMs' parameters that are resistant against overfitting issue. The performance of the proposed method was evaluated for two real data sets of Cartosat-1 satellite images. The obtained results demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed method in term of the achievable level of accuracy. This technique, indeed, shows an improvement of 50-80% over the TR.

  6. Statistical Agent Based Modelization of the Phenomenon of Drug Abuse

    Science.gov (United States)

    di Clemente, Riccardo; Pietronero, Luciano

    2012-07-01

    We introduce a statistical agent based model to describe the phenomenon of drug abuse and its dynamical evolution at the individual and global level. The agents are heterogeneous with respect to their intrinsic inclination to drugs, to their budget attitude and social environment. The various levels of drug use were inspired by the professional description of the phenomenon and this permits a direct comparison with all available data. We show that certain elements have a great importance to start the use of drugs, for example the rare events in the personal experiences which permit to overcame the barrier of drug use occasionally. The analysis of how the system reacts to perturbations is very important to understand its key elements and it provides strategies for effective policy making. The present model represents the first step of a realistic description of this phenomenon and can be easily generalized in various directions.

  7. Methematical model of a neutron counting system used for the characteristics control of spontaneously fissioning material

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bessis, J.

    1986-09-01

    Methods are described for calculating the probabilities, p(m), of detection of m neutrons, inside a split millisecond counting gate, m varying from zero to some units. At the present stage, these methods suppose the source to be very small. Using the generating function concept, they concern both possible modes of the counting system, for opening gates, i.e.: 1) Trigger pulses randomly with regard to the emitted neutrons, 2) Trigger pulses from the detected neutrons themselves. Computed values are finally compared to the measured ones. This comparison seems to be very favourable, since the respective deviations are often lower than 1 % [fr

  8. Categorical counting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fetterman, J Gregor; Killeen, P Richard

    2010-09-01

    Pigeons pecked on three keys, responses to one of which could be reinforced after a few pecks, to a second key after a somewhat larger number of pecks, and to a third key after the maximum pecking requirement. The values of the pecking requirements and the proportion of trials ending with reinforcement were varied. Transits among the keys were an orderly function of peck number, and showed approximately proportional changes with changes in the pecking requirements, consistent with Weber's law. Standard deviations of the switch points between successive keys increased more slowly within a condition than across conditions. Changes in reinforcement probability produced changes in the location of the psychometric functions that were consistent with models of timing. Analyses of the number of pecks emitted and the duration of the pecking sequences demonstrated that peck number was the primary determinant of choice, but that passage of time also played some role. We capture the basic results with a standard model of counting, which we qualify to account for the secondary experiments. Copyright 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Review and Recommendations for Zero-inflated Count Regression Modeling of Dental Caries Indices in Epidemiological Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stamm, John W.; Long, D. Leann; Kincade, Megan E.

    2012-01-01

    Over the past five to ten years, zero-inflated count regression models have been increasingly applied to the analysis of dental caries indices (e.g., DMFT, dfms, etc). The main reason for that is linked to the broad decline in children’s caries experience, such that dmf and DMF indices more frequently generate low or even zero counts. This article specifically reviews the application of zero-inflated Poisson and zero-inflated negative binomial regression models to dental caries, with emphasis on the description of the models and the interpretation of fitted model results given the study goals. The review finds that interpretations provided in the published caries research are often imprecise or inadvertently misleading, particularly with respect to failing to discriminate between inference for the class of susceptible persons defined by such models and inference for the sampled population in terms of overall exposure effects. Recommendations are provided to enhance the use as well as the interpretation and reporting of results of count regression models when applied to epidemiological studies of dental caries. PMID:22710271

  10. Graphene growth process modeling: a physical-statistical approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Jian; Huang, Qiang

    2014-09-01

    As a zero-band semiconductor, graphene is an attractive material for a wide variety of applications such as optoelectronics. Among various techniques developed for graphene synthesis, chemical vapor deposition on copper foils shows high potential for producing few-layer and large-area graphene. Since fabrication of high-quality graphene sheets requires the understanding of growth mechanisms, and methods of characterization and control of grain size of graphene flakes, analytical modeling of graphene growth process is therefore essential for controlled fabrication. The graphene growth process starts with randomly nucleated islands that gradually develop into complex shapes, grow in size, and eventually connect together to cover the copper foil. To model this complex process, we develop a physical-statistical approach under the assumption of self-similarity during graphene growth. The growth kinetics is uncovered by separating island shapes from area growth rate. We propose to characterize the area growth velocity using a confined exponential model, which not only has clear physical explanation, but also fits the real data well. For the shape modeling, we develop a parametric shape model which can be well explained by the angular-dependent growth rate. This work can provide useful information for the control and optimization of graphene growth process on Cu foil.

  11. Flashover of a vacuum-insulator interface: A statistical model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. A. Stygar

    2004-07-01

    Full Text Available We have developed a statistical model for the flashover of a 45° vacuum-insulator interface (such as would be found in an accelerator subject to a pulsed electric field. The model assumes that the initiation of a flashover plasma is a stochastic process, that the characteristic statistical component of the flashover delay time is much greater than the plasma formative time, and that the average rate at which flashovers occur is a power-law function of the instantaneous value of the electric field. Under these conditions, we find that the flashover probability is given by 1-exp(-E_{p}^{β}t_{eff}C/k^{β}, where E_{p} is the peak value in time of the spatially averaged electric field E(t, t_{eff}≡∫[E(t/E_{p}]^{β}dt is the effective pulse width, C is the insulator circumference, k∝exp(λ/d, and β and λ are constants. We define E(t as V(t/d, where V(t is the voltage across the insulator and d is the insulator thickness. Since the model assumes that flashovers occur at random azimuthal locations along the insulator, it does not apply to systems that have a significant defect, i.e., a location contaminated with debris or compromised by an imperfection at which flashovers repeatedly take place, and which prevents a random spatial distribution. The model is consistent with flashover measurements to within 7% for pulse widths between 0.5 ns and 10   μs, and to within a factor of 2 between 0.5 ns and 90 s (a span of over 11 orders of magnitude. For these measurements, E_{p} ranges from 64 to 651  kV/cm, d from 0.50 to 4.32 cm, and C from 4.96 to 95.74 cm. The model is significantly more accurate, and is valid over a wider range of parameters, than the J. C. Martin flashover relation that has been in use since 1971 [J. C. Martin on Pulsed Power, edited by T. H. Martin, A. H. Guenther, and M. Kristiansen (Plenum, New York, 1996]. We have generalized the statistical model to estimate the total-flashover probability of an

  12. Estimated allele substitution effects underlying genomic evaluation models depend on the scaling of allele counts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bouwman, Aniek C.; Hayes, Ben J.; Calus, Mario P.L.

    2017-01-01

    Background: Genomic evaluation is used to predict direct genomic values (DGV) for selection candidates in breeding programs, but also to estimate allele substitution effects (ASE) of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). Scaling of allele counts influences the estimated ASE, because scaling of

  13. Modelling T4 cell count as a marker of HIV progression in the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ∗Corresponding author: Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, University ... T4 cell count as a marker of HIV progression in the absence of any defense ... This observation enables us to make the assumption that the population of ...

  14. Statistics Based Models for the Dynamics of Chernivtsi Children Disease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Igor G. Nesteruk

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Background. Simple mathematical models of contamination and SIR-model of spreading an infection were used to simulate the time dynamics of the unknown before children disease, which occurred in Chernivtsi (Ukraine. The cause of many cases of alopecia, which began in this city in August 1988 is still not fully clarified. According to the official report of the governmental commission, the last new cases occurred in the middle of November 1988, and the reason of the illness was reported as chemical exogenous intoxication. Later this illness became the name “Chernivtsi chemical disease”. Nevertheless, the significantly increased number of new cases of the local alopecia was registered almost three years and is still not clarified. Objective. The comparison of two different versions of the disease: chemical exogenous intoxication and infection. Identification of the parameters of mathematical models and prediction of the disease development. Methods. Analytical solutions of the contamination models and SIR-model for an epidemic are obtained. The optimal values of parameters with the use of linear regression were found. Results. The optimal values of the models parameters with the use of statistical approach were identified. The calculations showed that the infectious version of the disease is more reliable in comparison with the popular contamination one. The possible date of the epidemic beginning was estimated. Conclusions. The optimal parameters of SIR-model allow calculating the realistic number of victims and other characteristics of possible epidemic. They also show that increased number of cases of local alopecia could be a part of the same epidemic as “Chernivtsi chemical disease”.

  15. Development of response models for the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) sensors. Part 4: Preliminary nonscanner models and count conversion algorithms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halyo, Nesim; Choi, Sang H.

    1987-01-01

    Two count conversion algorithms and the associated dynamic sensor model for the M/WFOV nonscanner radiometers are defined. The sensor model provides and updates the constants necessary for the conversion algorithms, though the frequency with which these updates were needed was uncertain. This analysis therefore develops mathematical models for the conversion of irradiance at the sensor field of view (FOV) limiter into data counts, derives from this model two algorithms for the conversion of data counts to irradiance at the sensor FOV aperture and develops measurement models which account for a specific target source together with a sensor. The resulting algorithms are of the gain/offset and Kalman filter types. The gain/offset algorithm was chosen since it provided sufficient accuracy using simpler computations.

  16. Linear mixed models a practical guide using statistical software

    CERN Document Server

    West, Brady T; Galecki, Andrzej T

    2014-01-01

    Highly recommended by JASA, Technometrics, and other journals, the first edition of this bestseller showed how to easily perform complex linear mixed model (LMM) analyses via a variety of software programs. Linear Mixed Models: A Practical Guide Using Statistical Software, Second Edition continues to lead readers step by step through the process of fitting LMMs. This second edition covers additional topics on the application of LMMs that are valuable for data analysts in all fields. It also updates the case studies using the latest versions of the software procedures and provides up-to-date information on the options and features of the software procedures available for fitting LMMs in SAS, SPSS, Stata, R/S-plus, and HLM.New to the Second Edition A new chapter on models with crossed random effects that uses a case study to illustrate software procedures capable of fitting these models Power analysis methods for longitudinal and clustered study designs, including software options for power analyses and suggest...

  17. Corrected Statistical Energy Analysis Model for Car Interior Noise

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Putra

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Statistical energy analysis (SEA is a well-known method to analyze the flow of acoustic and vibration energy in a complex structure. For an acoustic space where significant absorptive materials are present, direct field component from the sound source dominates the total sound field rather than a reverberant field, where the latter becomes the basis in constructing the conventional SEA model. Such environment can be found in a car interior and thus a corrected SEA model is proposed here to counter this situation. The model is developed by eliminating the direct field component from the total sound field and only the power after the first reflection is considered. A test car cabin was divided into two subsystems and by using a loudspeaker as a sound source, the power injection method in SEA was employed to obtain the corrected coupling loss factor and the damping loss factor from the corrected SEA model. These parameters were then used to predict the sound pressure level in the interior cabin using the injected input power from the engine. The results show satisfactory agreement with the directly measured SPL.

  18. Stochastic Spatial Models in Ecology: A Statistical Physics Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pigolotti, Simone; Cencini, Massimo; Molina, Daniel; Muñoz, Miguel A.

    2017-11-01

    Ecosystems display a complex spatial organization. Ecologists have long tried to characterize them by looking at how different measures of biodiversity change across spatial scales. Ecological neutral theory has provided simple predictions accounting for general empirical patterns in communities of competing species. However, while neutral theory in well-mixed ecosystems is mathematically well understood, spatial models still present several open problems, limiting the quantitative understanding of spatial biodiversity. In this review, we discuss the state of the art in spatial neutral theory. We emphasize the connection between spatial ecological models and the physics of non-equilibrium phase transitions and how concepts developed in statistical physics translate in population dynamics, and vice versa. We focus on non-trivial scaling laws arising at the critical dimension D = 2 of spatial neutral models, and their relevance for biological populations inhabiting two-dimensional environments. We conclude by discussing models incorporating non-neutral effects in the form of spatial and temporal disorder, and analyze how their predictions deviate from those of purely neutral theories.

  19. Percolation for a model of statistically inhomogeneous random media

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Quintanilla, J.; Torquato, S.

    1999-01-01

    We study clustering and percolation phenomena for a model of statistically inhomogeneous two-phase random media, including functionally graded materials. This model consists of inhomogeneous fully penetrable (Poisson distributed) disks and can be constructed for any specified variation of volume fraction. We quantify the transition zone in the model, defined by the frontier of the cluster of disks which are connected to the disk-covered portion of the model, by defining the coastline function and correlation functions for the coastline. We find that the behavior of these functions becomes largely independent of the specific choice of grade in volume fraction as the separation of length scales becomes large. We also show that the correlation function behaves in a manner similar to that of fractal Brownian motion. Finally, we study fractal characteristics of the frontier itself and compare to similar properties for two-dimensional percolation on a lattice. In particular, we show that the average location of the frontier appears to be related to the percolation threshold for homogeneous fully penetrable disks. copyright 1999 American Institute of Physics

  20. Glass viscosity calculation based on a global statistical modelling approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fluegel, Alex

    2007-02-01

    A global statistical glass viscosity model was developed for predicting the complete viscosity curve, based on more than 2200 composition-property data of silicate glasses from the scientific literature, including soda-lime-silica container and float glasses, TV panel glasses, borosilicate fiber wool and E type glasses, low expansion borosilicate glasses, glasses for nuclear waste vitrification, lead crystal glasses, binary alkali silicates, and various further compositions from over half a century. It is shown that within a measurement series from a specific laboratory the reported viscosity values are often over-estimated at higher temperatures due to alkali and boron oxide evaporation during the measurement and glass preparation, including data by Lakatos et al. (1972) and the recently published High temperature glass melt property database for process modeling by Seward et al. (2005). Similarly, in the glass transition range many experimental data of borosilicate glasses are reported too high due to phase separation effects. The developed global model corrects those errors. The model standard error was 9-17°C, with R^2 = 0.985-0.989. The prediction 95% confidence interval for glass in mass production largely depends on the glass composition of interest, the composition uncertainty, and the viscosity level. New insights in the mixed-alkali effect are provided.