WorldWideScience

Sample records for modeling continuous-time random

  1. Chemical Continuous Time Random Walks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aquino, T.; Dentz, M.

    2017-12-01

    Traditional methods for modeling solute transport through heterogeneous media employ Eulerian schemes to solve for solute concentration. More recently, Lagrangian methods have removed the need for spatial discretization through the use of Monte Carlo implementations of Langevin equations for solute particle motions. While there have been recent advances in modeling chemically reactive transport with recourse to Lagrangian methods, these remain less developed than their Eulerian counterparts, and many open problems such as efficient convergence and reconstruction of the concentration field remain. We explore a different avenue and consider the question: In heterogeneous chemically reactive systems, is it possible to describe the evolution of macroscopic reactant concentrations without explicitly resolving the spatial transport? Traditional Kinetic Monte Carlo methods, such as the Gillespie algorithm, model chemical reactions as random walks in particle number space, without the introduction of spatial coordinates. The inter-reaction times are exponentially distributed under the assumption that the system is well mixed. In real systems, transport limitations lead to incomplete mixing and decreased reaction efficiency. We introduce an arbitrary inter-reaction time distribution, which may account for the impact of incomplete mixing. This process defines an inhomogeneous continuous time random walk in particle number space, from which we derive a generalized chemical Master equation and formulate a generalized Gillespie algorithm. We then determine the modified chemical rate laws for different inter-reaction time distributions. We trace Michaelis-Menten-type kinetics back to finite-mean delay times, and predict time-nonlocal macroscopic reaction kinetics as a consequence of broadly distributed delays. Non-Markovian kinetics exhibit weak ergodicity breaking and show key features of reactions under local non-equilibrium.

  2. A continuous time random walk model for Darcy-scale anomalous transport in heterogeneous porous media.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Comolli, Alessandro; Hakoun, Vivien; Dentz, Marco

    2017-04-01

    Achieving the understanding of the process of solute transport in heterogeneous porous media is of crucial importance for several environmental and social purposes, ranging from aquifers contamination and remediation, to risk assessment in nuclear waste repositories. The complexity of this aim is mainly ascribable to the heterogeneity of natural media, which can be observed at all the scales of interest, from pore scale to catchment scale. In fact, the intrinsic heterogeneity of porous media is responsible for the arising of the well-known non-Fickian footprints of transport, including heavy-tailed breakthrough curves, non-Gaussian spatial density profiles and the non-linear growth of the mean squared displacement. Several studies investigated the processes through which heterogeneity impacts the transport properties, which include local modifications to the advective-dispersive motion of solutes, mass exchanges between some mobile and immobile phases (e.g. sorption/desorption reactions or diffusion into solid matrix) and spatial correlation of the flow field. In the last decades, the continuous time random walk (CTRW) model has often been used to describe solute transport in heterogenous conditions and to quantify the impact of point heterogeneity, spatial correlation and mass transfer on the average transport properties [1]. Open issues regarding this approach are the possibility to relate measurable properties of the medium to the parameters of the model, as well as its capability to provide predictive information. In a recent work [2] the authors have shed new light on understanding the relationship between Lagrangian and Eulerian dynamics as well as on their evolution from arbitrary initial conditions. On the basis of these results, we derive a CTRW model for the description of Darcy-scale transport in d-dimensional media characterized by spatially random permeability fields. The CTRW approach models particle velocities as a spatial Markov process, which is

  3. A lattice-model representation of continuous-time random walks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Campos, Daniel; Mendez, Vicenc

    2008-01-01

    We report some ideas for constructing lattice models (LMs) as a discrete approach to the reaction-dispersal (RD) or reaction-random walks (RRW) models. The analysis of a rather general class of Markovian and non-Markovian processes, from the point of view of their wavefront solutions, let us show that in some regimes their macroscopic dynamics (front speed) turns out to be different from that by classical reaction-diffusion equations, which are often used as a mean-field approximation to the problem. So, the convenience of a more general framework as that given by the continuous-time random walks (CTRW) is claimed. Here we use LMs as a numerical approach in order to support that idea, while in previous works our discussion was restricted to analytical models. For the two specific cases studied here, we derive and analyze the mean-field expressions for our LMs. As a result, we are able to provide some links between the numerical and analytical approaches studied

  4. A lattice-model representation of continuous-time random walks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Campos, Daniel [School of Mathematics, Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Manchester, Manchester M60 1QD (United Kingdom); Mendez, Vicenc [Grup de Fisica Estadistica, Departament de Fisica, Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona, 08193 Bellaterra (Barcelona) (Spain)], E-mail: daniel.campos@uab.es, E-mail: vicenc.mendez@uab.es

    2008-02-29

    We report some ideas for constructing lattice models (LMs) as a discrete approach to the reaction-dispersal (RD) or reaction-random walks (RRW) models. The analysis of a rather general class of Markovian and non-Markovian processes, from the point of view of their wavefront solutions, let us show that in some regimes their macroscopic dynamics (front speed) turns out to be different from that by classical reaction-diffusion equations, which are often used as a mean-field approximation to the problem. So, the convenience of a more general framework as that given by the continuous-time random walks (CTRW) is claimed. Here we use LMs as a numerical approach in order to support that idea, while in previous works our discussion was restricted to analytical models. For the two specific cases studied here, we derive and analyze the mean-field expressions for our LMs. As a result, we are able to provide some links between the numerical and analytical approaches studied.

  5. A Random Parameter Model for Continuous-Time Mean-Variance Asset-Liability Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hui-qiang Ma

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available We consider a continuous-time mean-variance asset-liability management problem in a market with random market parameters; that is, interest rate, appreciation rates, and volatility rates are considered to be stochastic processes. By using the theories of stochastic linear-quadratic (LQ optimal control and backward stochastic differential equations (BSDEs, we tackle this problem and derive optimal investment strategies as well as the mean-variance efficient frontier analytically in terms of the solution of BSDEs. We find that the efficient frontier is still a parabola in a market with random parameters. Comparing with the existing results, we also find that the liability does not affect the feasibility of the mean-variance portfolio selection problem. However, in an incomplete market with random parameters, the liability can not be fully hedged.

  6. Diffusion of epicenters of earthquake aftershocks, Omori's law, and generalized continuous-time random walk models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Helmstetter, A.; Sornette, D.

    2002-01-01

    The epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model is a simple stochastic process modeling seismicity, based on the two best-established empirical laws, the Omori law (power-law decay ∼1/t 1+θ of seismicity after an earthquake) and Gutenberg-Richter law (power-law distribution of earthquake energies). In order to describe also the space distribution of seismicity, we use in addition a power-law distribution ∼1/r 1+μ of distances between triggered and triggering earthquakes. The ETAS model has been studied for the last two decades to model real seismicity catalogs and to obtain short-term probabilistic forecasts. Here, we present a mapping between the ETAS model and a class of CTRW (continuous time random walk) models, based on the identification of their corresponding master equations. This mapping allows us to use the wealth of results previously obtained on anomalous diffusion of CTRW. After translating into the relevant variable for the ETAS model, we provide a classification of the different regimes of diffusion of seismic activity triggered by a mainshock. Specifically, we derive the relation between the average distance between aftershocks and the mainshock as a function of the time from the mainshock and of the joint probability distribution of the times and locations of the aftershocks. The different regimes are fully characterized by the two exponents θ and μ. Our predictions are checked by careful numerical simulations. We stress the distinction between the 'bare' Omori law describing the seismic rate activated directly by a mainshock and the 'renormalized' Omori law taking into account all possible cascades from mainshocks to aftershocks of aftershock of aftershock, and so on. In particular, we predict that seismic diffusion or subdiffusion occurs and should be observable only when the observed Omori exponent is less than 1, because this signals the operation of the renormalization of the bare Omori law, also at the origin of seismic diffusion in

  7. Continuous-time random-walk model for anomalous diffusion in expanding media

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Vot, F.; Abad, E.; Yuste, S. B.

    2017-09-01

    Expanding media are typical in many different fields, e.g., in biology and cosmology. In general, a medium expansion (contraction) brings about dramatic changes in the behavior of diffusive transport properties such as the set of positional moments and the Green's function. Here, we focus on the characterization of such effects when the diffusion process is described by the continuous-time random-walk (CTRW) model. As is well known, when the medium is static this model yields anomalous diffusion for a proper choice of the probability density function (pdf) for the jump length and the waiting time, but the behavior may change drastically if a medium expansion is superimposed on the intrinsic random motion of the diffusing particle. For the case where the jump length and the waiting time pdfs are long-tailed, we derive a general bifractional diffusion equation which reduces to a normal diffusion equation in the appropriate limit. We then study some particular cases of interest, including Lévy flights and subdiffusive CTRWs. In the former case, we find an analytical exact solution for the Green's function (propagator). When the expansion is sufficiently fast, the contribution of the diffusive transport becomes irrelevant at long times and the propagator tends to a stationary profile in the comoving reference frame. In contrast, for a contracting medium a competition between the spreading effect of diffusion and the concentrating effect of contraction arises. In the specific case of a subdiffusive CTRW in an exponentially contracting medium, the latter effect prevails for sufficiently long times, and all the particles are eventually localized at a single point in physical space. This "big crunch" effect, totally absent in the case of normal diffusion, stems from inefficient particle spreading due to subdiffusion. We also derive a hierarchy of differential equations for the moments of the transport process described by the subdiffusive CTRW model in an expanding medium

  8. Continuous-time random-walk model for anomalous diffusion in expanding media.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Vot, F; Abad, E; Yuste, S B

    2017-09-01

    Expanding media are typical in many different fields, e.g., in biology and cosmology. In general, a medium expansion (contraction) brings about dramatic changes in the behavior of diffusive transport properties such as the set of positional moments and the Green's function. Here, we focus on the characterization of such effects when the diffusion process is described by the continuous-time random-walk (CTRW) model. As is well known, when the medium is static this model yields anomalous diffusion for a proper choice of the probability density function (pdf) for the jump length and the waiting time, but the behavior may change drastically if a medium expansion is superimposed on the intrinsic random motion of the diffusing particle. For the case where the jump length and the waiting time pdfs are long-tailed, we derive a general bifractional diffusion equation which reduces to a normal diffusion equation in the appropriate limit. We then study some particular cases of interest, including Lévy flights and subdiffusive CTRWs. In the former case, we find an analytical exact solution for the Green's function (propagator). When the expansion is sufficiently fast, the contribution of the diffusive transport becomes irrelevant at long times and the propagator tends to a stationary profile in the comoving reference frame. In contrast, for a contracting medium a competition between the spreading effect of diffusion and the concentrating effect of contraction arises. In the specific case of a subdiffusive CTRW in an exponentially contracting medium, the latter effect prevails for sufficiently long times, and all the particles are eventually localized at a single point in physical space. This "big crunch" effect, totally absent in the case of normal diffusion, stems from inefficient particle spreading due to subdiffusion. We also derive a hierarchy of differential equations for the moments of the transport process described by the subdiffusive CTRW model in an expanding medium

  9. Heterogeneous continuous-time random walks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grebenkov, Denis S.; Tupikina, Liubov

    2018-01-01

    We introduce a heterogeneous continuous-time random walk (HCTRW) model as a versatile analytical formalism for studying and modeling diffusion processes in heterogeneous structures, such as porous or disordered media, multiscale or crowded environments, weighted graphs or networks. We derive the exact form of the propagator and investigate the effects of spatiotemporal heterogeneities onto the diffusive dynamics via the spectral properties of the generalized transition matrix. In particular, we show how the distribution of first-passage times changes due to local and global heterogeneities of the medium. The HCTRW formalism offers a unified mathematical language to address various diffusion-reaction problems, with numerous applications in material sciences, physics, chemistry, biology, and social sciences.

  10. Price Formation Modelling by Continuous-Time Random Walk: An Empirical Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frédéric Délèze

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Markovian and non-Markovian\tmodels are presented to\tmodel the futures\tmarket price formation.\tWe show that\tthe\twaiting-time\tand\tthe\tsurvival\tprobabilities\thave\ta\tsignificant\timpact\ton\tthe\tprice\tdynamics.\tThis\tstudy tests\tanalytical\tsolutions\tand\tpresent\tnumerical\tresults for the\tprobability\tdensity function\tof the\tcontinuoustime random\twalk\tusing\ttick-by-tick\tquotes\tprices\tfor\tthe\tDAX\t30\tindex\tfutures.

  11. Unifying Pore Network Modeling, Continuous Time Random Walk Theory and Experiment - Accomplishments and Future Directions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bijeljic, B.

    2008-05-01

    This talk will describe and highlight the advantages offered by a methodology that unifies pore network modeling, CTRW theory and experiment in description of solute dispersion in porous media. Solute transport in a porous medium is characterized by the interplay of advection and diffusion (described by Peclet number, Pe) that cause spreading of solute particles. This spreading is traditionally described by dispersion coefficients, D, defined by σ 2 = 2Dt, where σ 2 is the variance of the solute position and t is the time. Using a pore-scale network model based on particle tracking, the rich Peclet- number dependence of dispersion coefficient is predicted from first principles and is shown to compare well with experimental data for restricted diffusion, transition, power-law and mechanical dispersion regimes in the asymptotic limit. In the asymptotic limit D is constant and can be used in an averaged advection-dispersion equation. However, it is highly important to recognize that, until the velocity field is fully sampled, the particle transport is non-Gaussian and D possesses temporal or spatial variation. Furthermore, temporal probability density functions (PDF) of tracer particles are studied in pore networks and an excellent agreement for the spectrum of transition times for particles from pore to pore is obtained between network model results and CTRW theory. Based on the truncated power-law interpretation of PDF-s, the physical origin of the power-law scaling of dispersion coefficient vs. Peclet number has been explained for unconsolidated porous media, sands and a number of sandstones, arriving at the same conclusion from numerical network modelling, analytic CTRW theory and experiment. Future directions for further applications of the methodology presented are discussed in relation to the scale- dependent solute dispersion and reactive transport. Significance of pre-asymptotic dispersion in porous media is addressed from pore-scale upwards and the impact

  12. Path probabilities of continuous time random walks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eule, Stephan; Friedrich, Rudolf

    2014-01-01

    Employing the path integral formulation of a broad class of anomalous diffusion processes, we derive the exact relations for the path probability densities of these processes. In particular, we obtain a closed analytical solution for the path probability distribution of a Continuous Time Random Walk (CTRW) process. This solution is given in terms of its waiting time distribution and short time propagator of the corresponding random walk as a solution of a Dyson equation. Applying our analytical solution we derive generalized Feynman–Kac formulae. (paper)

  13. Continuous time random walk model with asymptotical probability density of waiting times via inverse Mittag-Leffler function

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Yingjie; Chen, Wen

    2018-04-01

    The mean squared displacement (MSD) of the traditional ultraslow diffusion is a logarithmic function of time. Recently, the continuous time random walk model is employed to characterize this ultraslow diffusion dynamics by connecting the heavy-tailed logarithmic function and its variation as the asymptotical waiting time density. In this study we investigate the limiting waiting time density of a general ultraslow diffusion model via the inverse Mittag-Leffler function, whose special case includes the traditional logarithmic ultraslow diffusion model. The MSD of the general ultraslow diffusion model is analytically derived as an inverse Mittag-Leffler function, and is observed to increase even more slowly than that of the logarithmic function model. The occurrence of very long waiting time in the case of the inverse Mittag-Leffler function has the largest probability compared with the power law model and the logarithmic function model. The Monte Carlo simulations of one dimensional sample path of a single particle are also performed. The results show that the inverse Mittag-Leffler waiting time density is effective in depicting the general ultraslow random motion.

  14. Continuous-Time Random Walk Models of DNA Electrophoresis in a Post Array: II. Mobility and Sources of Band Broadening

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olson, Daniel W.; Dutta, Sarit; Laachi, Nabil; Tian, Mingwei; Dorfman, Kevin D.

    2011-01-01

    Using the two-state, continuous-time random walk model, we develop expressions for the mobility and the plate height during DNA electrophoresis in an ordered post array that delineate the contributions due to (i) the random distance between collisions and (ii) the random duration of a collision. These contributions are expressed in terms of the means and variances of the underlying stochastic processes, which we evaluate from a large ensemble of Brownian dynamics simulations performed using different electric fields and molecular weights in a hexagonal array of 1 μm posts with a 3 μm center-to-center distance. If we fix the molecular weight, we find that the collision frequency governs the mobility. In contrast, the average collision duration is the most important factor for predicting the mobility as a function of DNA size at constant Péclet number. The plate height is reasonably well-described by a single post rope-over-pulley model, provided that the extension of the molecule is small. Our results only account for dispersion inside the post array and thus represent a theoretical lower bound on the plate height in an actual device. PMID:21290387

  15. Coupled continuous time-random walks in quenched random environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magdziarz, M.; Szczotka, W.

    2018-02-01

    We introduce a coupled continuous-time random walk with coupling which is characteristic for Lévy walks. Additionally we assume that the walker moves in a quenched random environment, i.e. the site disorder at each lattice point is fixed in time. We analyze the scaling limit of such a random walk. We show that for large times the behaviour of the analyzed process is exactly the same as in the case of uncoupled quenched trap model for Lévy flights.

  16. Transient modeling of non-Fickian transport and first-order reaction using continuous time random walk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burnell, Daniel K.; Hansen, Scott K.; Xu, Jie

    2017-09-01

    Contaminants in groundwater may experience a broad spectrum of velocities and multiple rates of mass transfer between mobile and immobile zones during transport. These conditions may lead to non-Fickian plume evolution which is not well described by the advection-dispersion equation (ADE). Simultaneously, many groundwater contaminants are degraded by processes that may be modeled as first-order decay. It is now known that non-Fickian transport and reaction are intimately coupled, with reaction affecting the transport operator. However, closed-form solutions for these important scenarios have not been published for use in applications. In this paper, we present four new Green's function analytic solutions in the uncoupled, uncorrelated continuous time random walk (CTRW) framework for reactive non-Fickian transport, corresponding to the quartet of conservative tracer solutions presented by Kreft and Zuber (1978) for Fickian transport. These consider pulse injection for both resident and flux concentration combined with detection in both resident and flux concentration. A pair of solutions for resident concentration temporal pulses with detection in both flux and resident concentration is also presented. We also derive the relationship between flux and resident concentration for non-Fickian transport with first-order reaction for this CTRW formulation. An explicit discussion of employment of the new solutions to model transport with arbitrary upgradient boundary conditions as well as mobile-immobile mass transfer is then presented. Using the new solutions, we show that first-order reaction has no effect on the anomalous spatial spreading rate of concentration profiles, but produces breakthrough curves at fixed locations that appear to have been generated by Fickian transport. Under the assumption of a Pareto CTRW transition distribution, we present a variety of numerical simulations including results showing coherence of our analytic solutions and CTRW particle

  17. Application of continuous-time random walk to statistical arbitrage

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergey Osmekhin

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available An analytical statistical arbitrage strategy is proposed, where the distribution of the spread is modelled as a continuous-time random walk. Optimal boundaries, computed as a function of the mean and variance of the firstpassage time ofthe spread,maximises an objective function. The predictability of the trading strategy is analysed and contrasted for two forms of continuous-time random walk processes. We found that the waiting-time distribution has a significant impact on the prediction of the expected profit for intraday trading

  18. Correlated continuous time random walk and option pricing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lv, Longjin; Xiao, Jianbin; Fan, Liangzhong; Ren, Fuyao

    2016-04-01

    In this paper, we study a correlated continuous time random walk (CCTRW) with averaged waiting time, whose probability density function (PDF) is proved to follow stretched Gaussian distribution. Then, we apply this process into option pricing problem. Supposing the price of the underlying is driven by this CCTRW, we find this model captures the subdiffusive characteristic of financial markets. By using the mean self-financing hedging strategy, we obtain the closed-form pricing formulas for a European option with and without transaction costs, respectively. At last, comparing the obtained model with the classical Black-Scholes model, we find the price obtained in this paper is higher than that obtained from the Black-Scholes model. A empirical analysis is also introduced to confirm the obtained results can fit the real data well.

  19. Continuous-time quantum random walks require discrete space

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Manouchehri, K; Wang, J B

    2007-01-01

    Quantum random walks are shown to have non-intuitive dynamics which makes them an attractive area of study for devising quantum algorithms for long-standing open problems as well as those arising in the field of quantum computing. In the case of continuous-time quantum random walks, such peculiar dynamics can arise from simple evolution operators closely resembling the quantum free-wave propagator. We investigate the divergence of quantum walk dynamics from the free-wave evolution and show that, in order for continuous-time quantum walks to display their characteristic propagation, the state space must be discrete. This behavior rules out many continuous quantum systems as possible candidates for implementing continuous-time quantum random walks

  20. Continuous-time quantum random walks require discrete space

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manouchehri, K.; Wang, J. B.

    2007-11-01

    Quantum random walks are shown to have non-intuitive dynamics which makes them an attractive area of study for devising quantum algorithms for long-standing open problems as well as those arising in the field of quantum computing. In the case of continuous-time quantum random walks, such peculiar dynamics can arise from simple evolution operators closely resembling the quantum free-wave propagator. We investigate the divergence of quantum walk dynamics from the free-wave evolution and show that, in order for continuous-time quantum walks to display their characteristic propagation, the state space must be discrete. This behavior rules out many continuous quantum systems as possible candidates for implementing continuous-time quantum random walks.

  1. Anomalous transport in turbulent plasmas and continuous time random walks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Balescu, R.

    1995-01-01

    The possibility of a model of anomalous transport problems in a turbulent plasma by a purely stochastic process is investigated. The theory of continuous time random walks (CTRW's) is briefly reviewed. It is shown that a particular class, called the standard long tail CTRW's is of special interest for the description of subdiffusive transport. Its evolution is described by a non-Markovian diffusion equation that is constructed in such a way as to yield exact values for all the moments of the density profile. The concept of a CTRW model is compared to an exact solution of a simple test problem: transport of charged particles in a fluctuating magnetic field in the limit of infinite perpendicular correlation length. Although the well-known behavior of the mean square displacement proportional to t 1/2 is easily recovered, the exact density profile cannot be modeled by a CTRW. However, the quasilinear approximation of the kinetic equation has the form of a non-Markovian diffusion equation and can thus be generated by a CTRW

  2. Stochastic calculus for uncoupled continuous-time random walks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Germano, Guido; Politi, Mauro; Scalas, Enrico; Schilling, René L

    2009-06-01

    The continuous-time random walk (CTRW) is a pure-jump stochastic process with several applications not only in physics but also in insurance, finance, and economics. A definition is given for a class of stochastic integrals driven by a CTRW, which includes the Itō and Stratonovich cases. An uncoupled CTRW with zero-mean jumps is a martingale. It is proved that, as a consequence of the martingale transform theorem, if the CTRW is a martingale, the Itō integral is a martingale too. It is shown how the definition of the stochastic integrals can be used to easily compute them by Monte Carlo simulation. The relations between a CTRW, its quadratic variation, its Stratonovich integral, and its Itō integral are highlighted by numerical calculations when the jumps in space of the CTRW have a symmetric Lévy alpha -stable distribution and its waiting times have a one-parameter Mittag-Leffler distribution. Remarkably, these distributions have fat tails and an unbounded quadratic variation. In the diffusive limit of vanishing scale parameters, the probability density of this kind of CTRW satisfies the space-time fractional diffusion equation (FDE) or more in general the fractional Fokker-Planck equation, which generalizes the standard diffusion equation, solved by the probability density of the Wiener process, and thus provides a phenomenologic model of anomalous diffusion. We also provide an analytic expression for the quadratic variation of the stochastic process described by the FDE and check it by Monte Carlo.

  3. Dynamical continuous time random Lévy flights

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Jian; Chen, Xiaosong

    2016-03-01

    The Lévy flights' diffusive behavior is studied within the framework of the dynamical continuous time random walk (DCTRW) method, while the nonlinear friction is introduced in each step. Through the DCTRW method, Lévy random walker in each step flies by obeying the Newton's Second Law while the nonlinear friction f(v) = - γ0v - γ2v3 being considered instead of Stokes friction. It is shown that after introducing the nonlinear friction, the superdiffusive Lévy flights converges, behaves localization phenomenon with long time limit, but for the Lévy index μ = 2 case, it is still Brownian motion.

  4. A stochastic surplus production model in continuous time

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Martin Wæver; Berg, Casper Willestofte

    2017-01-01

    surplus production model in continuous time (SPiCT), which in addition to stock dynamics also models the dynamics of the fisheries. This enables error in the catch process to be reflected in the uncertainty of estimated model parameters and management quantities. Benefits of the continuous-time state......Surplus production modelling has a long history as a method for managing data-limited fish stocks. Recent advancements have cast surplus production models as state-space models that separate random variability of stock dynamics from error in observed indices of biomass. We present a stochastic......-space model formulation include the ability to provide estimates of exploitable biomass and fishing mortality at any point in time from data sampled at arbitrary and possibly irregular intervals. We show in a simulation that the ability to analyse subannual data can increase the effective sample size...

  5. Continuous-time model of structural balance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marvel, Seth A; Kleinberg, Jon; Kleinberg, Robert D; Strogatz, Steven H

    2011-02-01

    It is not uncommon for certain social networks to divide into two opposing camps in response to stress. This happens, for example, in networks of political parties during winner-takes-all elections, in networks of companies competing to establish technical standards, and in networks of nations faced with mounting threats of war. A simple model for these two-sided separations is the dynamical system dX/dt = X(2), where X is a matrix of the friendliness or unfriendliness between pairs of nodes in the network. Previous simulations suggested that only two types of behavior were possible for this system: Either all relationships become friendly or two hostile factions emerge. Here we prove that for generic initial conditions, these are indeed the only possible outcomes. Our analysis yields a closed-form expression for faction membership as a function of the initial conditions and implies that the initial amount of friendliness in large social networks (started from random initial conditions) determines whether they will end up in intractable conflict or global harmony.

  6. Computer Aided Continuous Time Stochastic Process Modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristensen, N.R.; Madsen, Henrik; Jørgensen, Sten Bay

    2001-01-01

    A grey-box approach to process modelling that combines deterministic and stochastic modelling is advocated for identification of models for model-based control of batch and semi-batch processes. A computer-aided tool designed for supporting decision-making within the corresponding modelling cycle...

  7. Discounting Models for Outcomes over Continuous Time

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Harvey, Charles M.; Østerdal, Lars Peter

    Events that occur over a period of time can be described either as sequences of outcomes at discrete times or as functions of outcomes in an interval of time. This paper presents discounting models for events of the latter type. Conditions on preferences are shown to be satisfied if and only if t...... if the preferences are represented by a function that is an integral of a discounting function times a scale defined on outcomes at instants of time....

  8. Continuous time quantum random walks in free space

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eichelkraut, Toni; Vetter, Christian; Perez-Leija, Armando; Christodoulides, Demetrios; Szameit, Alexander

    2014-05-01

    We show theoretically and experimentally that two-dimensional continuous time coherent random walks are possible in free space, that is, in the absence of any external potential, by properly tailoring the associated initial wave function. These effects are experimentally demonstrated using classical paraxial light. Evidently, the usage of classical beams to explore the dynamics of point-like quantum particles is possible since both phenomena are mathematically equivalent. This in turn makes our approach suitable for the realization of random walks using different quantum particles, including electrons and photons. To study the spatial evolution of a wavefunction theoretically, we consider the one-dimensional paraxial wave equation (i∂z +1/2 ∂x2) Ψ = 0 . Starting with the initially localized wavefunction Ψ (x , 0) = exp [ -x2 / 2σ2 ] J0 (αx) , one can show that the evolution of such Gaussian-apodized Bessel envelopes within a region of validity resembles the probability pattern of a quantum walker traversing a uniform lattice. In order to generate the desired input-field in our experimental setting we shape the amplitude and phase of a collimated light beam originating from a classical HeNe-Laser (633 nm) utilizing a spatial light modulator.

  9. Continuous Time Dynamic Contraflow Models and Algorithms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Urmila Pyakurel

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The research on evacuation planning problem is promoted by the very challenging emergency issues due to large scale natural or man-created disasters. It is the process of shifting the maximum number of evacuees from the disastrous areas to the safe destinations as quickly and efficiently as possible. Contraflow is a widely accepted model for good solution of evacuation planning problem. It increases the outbound road capacity by reversing the direction of roads towards the safe destination. The continuous dynamic contraflow problem sends the maximum number of flow as a flow rate from the source to the sink in every moment of time unit. We propose the mathematical model for the continuous dynamic contraflow problem. We present efficient algorithms to solve the maximum continuous dynamic contraflow and quickest continuous contraflow problems on single source single sink arbitrary networks and continuous earliest arrival contraflow problem on single source single sink series-parallel networks with undefined supply and demand. We also introduce an approximation solution for continuous earliest arrival contraflow problem on two-terminal arbitrary networks.

  10. A continuous-time control model on production planning network ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A continuous-time control model on production planning network. DEA Omorogbe, MIU Okunsebor. Abstract. In this paper, we give a slightly detailed review of Graves and Hollywood model on constant inventory tactical planning model for a job shop. The limitations of this model are pointed out and a continuous time ...

  11. Continuous Time Modeling of the Cross-Lagged Panel Design

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oud, J.H.L.

    2002-01-01

    Since Newton (1642-1727) continuous time modeling by means of differential equations is the standard approach of dynamic phenomena in natural science. It is argued that most processes in behavioral science also unfold in continuous time and should be analyzed accordingly. After dealing with the

  12. Integral-Value Models for Outcomes over Continuous Time

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Harvey, Charles M.; Østerdal, Lars Peter

    Models of preferences between outcomes over continuous time are important for individual, corporate, and social decision making, e.g., medical treatment, infrastructure development, and environmental regulation. This paper presents a foundation for such models. It shows that conditions on prefere...... on preferences between real- or vector-valued outcomes over continuous time are satisfied if and only if the preferences are represented by a value function having an integral form......Models of preferences between outcomes over continuous time are important for individual, corporate, and social decision making, e.g., medical treatment, infrastructure development, and environmental regulation. This paper presents a foundation for such models. It shows that conditions...

  13. Continuous Time Structural Equation Modeling with R Package ctsem

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charles C. Driver

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available We introduce ctsem, an R package for continuous time structural equation modeling of panel (N > 1 and time series (N = 1 data, using full information maximum likelihood. Most dynamic models (e.g., cross-lagged panel models in the social and behavioural sciences are discrete time models. An assumption of discrete time models is that time intervals between measurements are equal, and that all subjects were assessed at the same intervals. Violations of this assumption are often ignored due to the difficulty of accounting for varying time intervals, therefore parameter estimates can be biased and the time course of effects becomes ambiguous. By using stochastic differential equations to estimate an underlying continuous process, continuous time models allow for any pattern of measurement occasions. By interfacing to OpenMx, ctsem combines the flexible specification of structural equation models with the enhanced data gathering opportunities and improved estimation of continuous time models. ctsem can estimate relationships over time for multiple latent processes, measured by multiple noisy indicators with varying time intervals between observations. Within and between effects are estimated simultaneously by modeling both observed covariates and unobserved heterogeneity. Exogenous shocks with different shapes, group differences, higher order diffusion effects and oscillating processes can all be simply modeled. We first introduce and define continuous time models, then show how to specify and estimate a range of continuous time models using ctsem.

  14. Continuous time modeling of panel data by means of SEM

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oud, J.H.L.; Delsing, M.J.M.H.; Montfort, C.A.G.M.; Oud, J.H.L.; Satorra, A.

    2010-01-01

    After a brief history of continuous time modeling and its implementation in panel analysis by means of structural equation modeling (SEM), the problems of discrete time modeling are discussed in detail. This is done by means of the popular cross-lagged panel design. Next, the exact discrete model

  15. Continuous-Time Random Walk with multi-step memory: an application to market dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gubiec, Tomasz; Kutner, Ryszard

    2017-11-01

    An extended version of the Continuous-Time Random Walk (CTRW) model with memory is herein developed. This memory involves the dependence between arbitrary number of successive jumps of the process while waiting times between jumps are considered as i.i.d. random variables. This dependence was established analyzing empirical histograms for the stochastic process of a single share price on a market within the high frequency time scale. Then, it was justified theoretically by considering bid-ask bounce mechanism containing some delay characteristic for any double-auction market. Our model appeared exactly analytically solvable. Therefore, it enables a direct comparison of its predictions with their empirical counterparts, for instance, with empirical velocity autocorrelation function. Thus, the present research significantly extends capabilities of the CTRW formalism. Contribution to the Topical Issue "Continuous Time Random Walk Still Trendy: Fifty-year History, Current State and Outlook", edited by Ryszard Kutner and Jaume Masoliver.

  16. Stability and the structure of continuous-time economic models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nieuwenhuis, H.J.; Schoonbeek, L.

    In this paper we investigate the relationship between the stability of macroeconomic, or macroeconometric, continuous-time models and the structure of the matrices appearing in these models. In particular, we concentrate on dominant-diagonal structures. We derive general stability results for models

  17. On Transaction-Cost Models in Continuous-Time Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas Poufinas

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Transaction-cost models in continuous-time markets are considered. Given that investors decide to buy or sell at certain time instants, we study the existence of trading strategies that reach a certain final wealth level in continuous-time markets, under the assumption that transaction costs, built in certain recommended ways, have to be paid. Markets prove to behave in manners that resemble those of complete ones for a wide variety of transaction-cost types. The results are important, but not exclusively, for the pricing of options with transaction costs.

  18. Model checking conditional CSL for continuous-time Markov chains

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gao, Yang; Xu, Ming; Zhan, Naijun

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, we consider the model-checking problem of continuous-time Markov chains (CTMCs) with respect to conditional logic. To the end, we extend Continuous Stochastic Logic introduced in Aziz et al. (2000) [1] to Conditional Continuous Stochastic Logic (CCSL) by introducing a conditional...

  19. Correlated continuous-time random walks—scaling limits and Langevin picture

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Magdziarz, Marcin; Metzler, Ralf; Szczotka, Wladyslaw; Zebrowski, Piotr

    2012-01-01

    In this paper we analyze correlated continuous-time random walks introduced recently by Tejedor and Metzler (2010 J. Phys. A: Math. Theor. 43 082002). We obtain the Langevin equations associated with this process and the corresponding scaling limits of their solutions. We prove that the limit processes are self-similar and display anomalous dynamics. Moreover, we extend the model to include external forces. Our results are confirmed by Monte Carlo simulations

  20. Unifying Pore Network Modeling, Continuous Time Random Walk (CTRW) Theory and Experiment to Describe Impact of Spatial Heterogeneities on Solute Dispersion at Multiple Length-scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bijeljic, B.; Blunt, M. J.; Rhodes, M. E.

    2009-04-01

    This talk will describe and highlight the advantages offered by a novel methodology that unifies pore network modeling, CTRW theory and experiment in description of solute dispersion in porous media. Solute transport in a porous medium is characterized by the interplay of advection and diffusion (described by Peclet number, Pe) that cause dispersion of solute particles. Dispersion is traditionally described by dispersion coefficients, D, that are commonly calculated from the spatial moments of the plume. Using a pore-scale network model based on particle tracking, the rich Peclet-number dependence of dispersion coefficient is predicted from first principles and is shown to compare well with experimental data for restricted diffusion, transition, power-law and mechanical dispersion regimes in the asymptotic limit. In the asymptotic limit D is constant and can be used in an averaged advection-dispersion equation. However, it is highly important to recognize that, until the velocity field is fully sampled, the particle transport is non-Gaussian and D possesses temporal or spatial variation. Furthermore, temporal probability density functions (PDF) of tracer particles are studied in pore networks and an excellent agreement for the spectrum of transition times for particles from pore to pore is obtained between network model results and CTRW theory. Based on the truncated power-law interpretation of PDF-s, the physical origin of the power-law scaling of dispersion coefficient vs. Peclet number has been explained for unconsolidated porous media, sands and a number of sandstones, arriving at the same conclusion from numerical network modelling, analytic CTRW theory and experiment. The length traveled by solute plumes before Gaussian behaviour is reached increases with an increase in heterogeneity and/or Pe. This opens up the question on the nature of dispersion in natural systems where the heterogeneities at the larger scales will significantly increase the range of

  1. Estimation of Continuous Time Models in Economics: an Overview

    OpenAIRE

    Clifford R. Wymer

    2009-01-01

    The dynamics of economic behaviour is often developed in theory as a continuous time system. Rigorous estimation and testing of such systems, and the analysis of some aspects of their properties, is of particular importance in distinguishing between competing hypotheses and the resulting models. The consequences for the international economy during the past eighteen months of failures in the financial sector, and particularly the banking sector, make it essential that the dynamics of financia...

  2. Martingale Regressions for a Continuous Time Model of Exchange Rates

    OpenAIRE

    Guo, Zi-Yi

    2017-01-01

    One of the daunting problems in international finance is the weak explanatory power of existing theories of the nominal exchange rates, the so-called “foreign exchange rate determination puzzle”. We propose a continuous-time model to study the impact of order flow on foreign exchange rates. The model is estimated by a newly developed econometric tool based on a time-change sampling from calendar to volatility time. The estimation results indicate that the effect of order flow on exchange rate...

  3. A Continuous-Time Model for Valuing Foreign Exchange Options

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James J. Kung

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper makes use of stochastic calculus to develop a continuous-time model for valuing European options on foreign exchange (FX when both domestic and foreign spot rates follow a generalized Wiener process. Using the dollar/euro exchange rate as input for parameter estimation and employing our FX option model as a yardstick, we find that the traditional Garman-Kohlhagen FX option model, which assumes constant spot rates, values incorrectly calls and puts for different values of the ratio of exchange rate to exercise price. Specifically, it undervalues calls when the ratio is between 0.70 and 1.08, and it overvalues calls when the ratio is between 1.18 and 1.30, whereas it overvalues puts when the ratio is between 0.70 and 0.82, and it undervalues puts when the ratio is between 0.86 and 1.30.

  4. A continuous-time neural model for sequential action.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kachergis, George; Wyatte, Dean; O'Reilly, Randall C; de Kleijn, Roy; Hommel, Bernhard

    2014-11-05

    Action selection, planning and execution are continuous processes that evolve over time, responding to perceptual feedback as well as evolving top-down constraints. Existing models of routine sequential action (e.g. coffee- or pancake-making) generally fall into one of two classes: hierarchical models that include hand-built task representations, or heterarchical models that must learn to represent hierarchy via temporal context, but thus far lack goal-orientedness. We present a biologically motivated model of the latter class that, because it is situated in the Leabra neural architecture, affords an opportunity to include both unsupervised and goal-directed learning mechanisms. Moreover, we embed this neurocomputational model in the theoretical framework of the theory of event coding (TEC), which posits that actions and perceptions share a common representation with bidirectional associations between the two. Thus, in this view, not only does perception select actions (along with task context), but actions are also used to generate perceptions (i.e. intended effects). We propose a neural model that implements TEC to carry out sequential action control in hierarchically structured tasks such as coffee-making. Unlike traditional feedforward discrete-time neural network models, which use static percepts to generate static outputs, our biological model accepts continuous-time inputs and likewise generates non-stationary outputs, making short-timescale dynamic predictions. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

  5. Coaction versus reciprocity in continuous-time models of cooperation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Doorn, G Sander; Riebli, Thomas; Taborsky, Michael

    2014-09-07

    Cooperating animals frequently show closely coordinated behaviours organized by a continuous flow of information between interacting partners. Such real-time coaction is not captured by the iterated prisoner's dilemma and other discrete-time reciprocal cooperation games, which inherently feature a delay in information exchange. Here, we study the evolution of cooperation when individuals can dynamically respond to each other's actions. We develop continuous-time analogues of iterated-game models and describe their dynamics in terms of two variables, the propensity of individuals to initiate cooperation (altruism) and their tendency to mirror their partner's actions (coordination). These components of cooperation stabilize at an evolutionary equilibrium or show oscillations, depending on the chosen payoff parameters. Unlike reciprocal altruism, cooperation by coaction does not require that those willing to initiate cooperation pay in advance for uncertain future benefits. Correspondingly, we show that introducing a delay to information transfer between players is equivalent to increasing the cost of cooperation. Cooperative coaction can therefore evolve much more easily than reciprocal cooperation. When delays entirely prevent coordination, we recover results from the discrete-time alternating prisoner's dilemma, indicating that coaction and reciprocity are connected by a continuum of opportunities for real-time information exchange. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Continuous time random walk: Galilei invariance and relation for the nth moment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fa, Kwok Sau

    2011-01-01

    We consider a decoupled continuous time random walk model with a generic waiting time probability density function (PDF). For the force-free case we derive an integro-differential diffusion equation which is related to the Galilei invariance for the probability density. We also derive a general relation which connects the nth moment in the presence of any external force to the second moment without external force, i.e. it is valid for any waiting time PDF. This general relation includes the generalized second Einstein relation, which connects the first moment in the presence of any external force to the second moment without any external force. These expressions for the first two moments are verified by using several kinds of the waiting time PDF. Moreover, we present new anomalous diffusion behaviours for a waiting time PDF given by a product of power-law and exponential function.

  7. Continuous-time random walk as a guide to fractional Schroedinger equation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lenzi, E. K.; Ribeiro, H. V.; Mukai, H.; Mendes, R. S.

    2010-01-01

    We argue that the continuous-time random walk approach may be a useful guide to extend the Schroedinger equation in order to incorporate nonlocal effects, avoiding the inconsistencies raised by Jeng et al. [J. Math. Phys. 51, 062102 (2010)]. As an application, we work out a free particle in a half space, obtaining the time dependent solution by considering an arbitrary initial condition.

  8. Backward jump continuous-time random walk: An application to market trading

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gubiec, Tomasz; Kutner, Ryszard

    2010-10-01

    The backward jump modification of the continuous-time random walk model or the version of the model driven by the negative feedback was herein derived for spatiotemporal continuum in the context of a share price evolution on a stock exchange. In the frame of the model, we described stochastic evolution of a typical share price on a stock exchange with a moderate liquidity within a high-frequency time scale. The model was validated by satisfactory agreement of the theoretical velocity autocorrelation function with its empirical counterpart obtained for the continuous quotation. This agreement is mainly a result of a sharp backward correlation found and considered in this article. This correlation is a reminiscence of such a bid-ask bounce phenomenon where backward price jump has the same or almost the same length as preceding jump. We suggested that this correlation dominated the dynamics of the stock market with moderate liquidity. Although assumptions of the model were inspired by the market high-frequency empirical data, its potential applications extend beyond the financial market, for instance, to the field covered by the Le Chatelier-Braun principle of contrariness.

  9. Occupation times and ergodicity breaking in biased continuous time random walks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bel, Golan; Barkai, Eli

    2005-01-01

    Continuous time random walk (CTRW) models are widely used to model diffusion in condensed matter. There are two classes of such models, distinguished by the convergence or divergence of the mean waiting time. Systems with finite average sojourn time are ergodic and thus Boltzmann-Gibbs statistics can be applied. We investigate the statistical properties of CTRW models with infinite average sojourn time; in particular, the occupation time probability density function is obtained. It is shown that in the non-ergodic phase the distribution of the occupation time of the particle on a given lattice point exhibits bimodal U or trimodal W shape, related to the arcsine law. The key points are as follows. (a) In a CTRW with finite or infinite mean waiting time, the distribution of the number of visits on a lattice point is determined by the probability that a member of an ensemble of particles in equilibrium occupies the lattice point. (b) The asymmetry parameter of the probability distribution function of occupation times is related to the Boltzmann probability and to the partition function. (c) The ensemble average is given by Boltzmann-Gibbs statistics for either finite or infinite mean sojourn time, when detailed balance conditions hold. (d) A non-ergodic generalization of the Boltzmann-Gibbs statistical mechanics for systems with infinite mean sojourn time is found

  10. Continuous-Time Classical and Quantum Random Walk on Direct Product of Cayley Graphs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salimi, S.; Jafarizadeh, M. A.

    2009-01-01

    In this paper we define direct product of graphs and give a recipe for obtaining probability of observing particle on vertices in the continuous-time classical and quantum random walk. In the recipe, the probability of observing particle on direct product of graph is obtained by multiplication of probability on the corresponding to sub-graphs, where this method is useful to determining probability of walk on complicated graphs. Using this method, we calculate the probability of continuous-time classical and quantum random walks on many of finite direct product Cayley graphs (complete cycle, complete K n , charter and n-cube). Also, we inquire that the classical state the stationary uniform distribution is reached as t → ∞ but for quantum state is not always satisfied. (general)

  11. The continuous time random walk, still trendy: fifty-year history, state of art and outlook

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kutner, Ryszard; Masoliver, Jaume

    2017-03-01

    In this article we demonstrate the very inspiring role of the continuous-time random walk (CTRW) formalism, the numerous modifications permitted by its flexibility, its various applications, and the promising perspectives in the various fields of knowledge. A short review of significant achievements and possibilities is given. However, this review is still far from completeness. We focused on a pivotal role of CTRWs mainly in anomalous stochastic processes discovered in physics and beyond. This article plays the role of an extended announcement of the Eur. Phys. J. B Special Issue [open-calls-for-papers/123-epj-b/1090-ctrw-50-years-on">http://epjb.epj.org/open-calls-for-papers/123-epj-b/1090-ctrw-50-years-on] containing articles which show incredible possibilities of the CTRWs. Contribution to the Topical Issue "Continuous Time Random Walk Still Trendy: Fifty-year History, Current State and Outlook", edited by Ryszard Kutner and Jaume Masoliver.

  12. Continuous time random walk analysis of solute transport in fractured porous media

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cortis, Andrea; Cortis, Andrea; Birkholzer, Jens

    2008-06-01

    The objective of this work is to discuss solute transport phenomena in fractured porous media, where the macroscopic transport of contaminants in the highly permeable interconnected fractures can be strongly affected by solute exchange with the porous rock matrix. We are interested in a wide range of rock types, with matrix hydraulic conductivities varying from almost impermeable (e.g., granites) to somewhat permeable (e.g., porous sandstones). In the first case, molecular diffusion is the only transport process causing the transfer of contaminants between the fractures and the matrix blocks. In the second case, additional solute transfer occurs as a result of a combination of advective and dispersive transport mechanisms, with considerable impact on the macroscopic transport behavior. We start our study by conducting numerical tracer experiments employing a discrete (microscopic) representation of fractures and matrix. Using the discrete simulations as a surrogate for the 'correct' transport behavior, we then evaluate the accuracy of macroscopic (continuum) approaches in comparison with the discrete results. However, instead of using dual-continuum models, which are quite often used to account for this type of heterogeneity, we develop a macroscopic model based on the Continuous Time Random Walk (CTRW) framework, which characterizes the interaction between the fractured and porous rock domains by using a probability distribution function of residence times. A parametric study of how CTRW parameters evolve is presented, describing transport as a function of the hydraulic conductivity ratio between fractured and porous domains.

  13. On properties of continuous-time random walks with non-Poissonian jump-times

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Villarroel, Javier; Montero, Miquel

    2009-01-01

    The usual development of the continuous-time random walk (CTRW) proceeds by assuming that the present is one of the jumping times. Under this restrictive assumption integral equations for the propagator and mean escape times have been derived. We generalize these results to the case when the present is an arbitrary time by recourse to renewal theory. The case of Erlang distributed times is analyzed in detail. Several concrete examples are considered.

  14. Upscaling solute transport in naturally fractured porous media with the continuous time random walk method

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Geiger, S.; Cortis, A.; Birkholzer, J.T.

    2010-04-01

    Solute transport in fractured porous media is typically 'non-Fickian'; that is, it is characterized by early breakthrough and long tailing and by nonlinear growth of the Green function-centered second moment. This behavior is due to the effects of (1) multirate diffusion occurring between the highly permeable fracture network and the low-permeability rock matrix, (2) a wide range of advection rates in the fractures and, possibly, the matrix as well, and (3) a range of path lengths. As a consequence, prediction of solute transport processes at the macroscale represents a formidable challenge. Classical dual-porosity (or mobile-immobile) approaches in conjunction with an advection-dispersion equation and macroscopic dispersivity commonly fail to predict breakthrough of fractured porous media accurately. It was recently demonstrated that the continuous time random walk (CTRW) method can be used as a generalized upscaling approach. Here we extend this work and use results from high-resolution finite element-finite volume-based simulations of solute transport in an outcrop analogue of a naturally fractured reservoir to calibrate the CTRW method by extracting a distribution of retention times. This procedure allows us to predict breakthrough at other model locations accurately and to gain significant insight into the nature of the fracture-matrix interaction in naturally fractured porous reservoirs with geologically realistic fracture geometries.

  15. Continuous-Time Mean-Variance Portfolio Selection with Random Horizon

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yu, Zhiyong

    2013-01-01

    This paper examines the continuous-time mean-variance optimal portfolio selection problem with random market parameters and random time horizon. Treating this problem as a linearly constrained stochastic linear-quadratic optimal control problem, I explicitly derive the efficient portfolios and efficient frontier in closed forms based on the solutions of two backward stochastic differential equations. Some related issues such as a minimum variance portfolio and a mutual fund theorem are also addressed. All the results are markedly different from those in the problem with deterministic exit time. A key part of my analysis involves proving the global solvability of a stochastic Riccati equation, which is interesting in its own right

  16. Continuous-Time Mean-Variance Portfolio Selection with Random Horizon

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yu, Zhiyong, E-mail: yuzhiyong@sdu.edu.cn [Shandong University, School of Mathematics (China)

    2013-12-15

    This paper examines the continuous-time mean-variance optimal portfolio selection problem with random market parameters and random time horizon. Treating this problem as a linearly constrained stochastic linear-quadratic optimal control problem, I explicitly derive the efficient portfolios and efficient frontier in closed forms based on the solutions of two backward stochastic differential equations. Some related issues such as a minimum variance portfolio and a mutual fund theorem are also addressed. All the results are markedly different from those in the problem with deterministic exit time. A key part of my analysis involves proving the global solvability of a stochastic Riccati equation, which is interesting in its own right.

  17. Continuous-time random walks with reset events. Historical background and new perspectives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montero, Miquel; Masó-Puigdellosas, Axel; Villarroel, Javier

    2017-09-01

    In this paper, we consider a stochastic process that may experience random reset events which relocate the system to its starting position. We focus our attention on a one-dimensional, monotonic continuous-time random walk with a constant drift: the process moves in a fixed direction between the reset events, either by the effect of the random jumps, or by the action of a deterministic bias. However, the orientation of its motion is randomly determined after each restart. As a result of these alternating dynamics, interesting properties do emerge. General formulas for the propagator as well as for two extreme statistics, the survival probability and the mean first-passage time, are also derived. The rigor of these analytical results is verified by numerical estimations, for particular but illuminating examples.

  18. Saddlepoint approximation to the distribution of the total distance of the continuous time random walk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gatto, Riccardo

    2017-12-01

    This article considers the random walk over Rp, with p ≥ 2, where a given particle starts at the origin and moves stepwise with uniformly distributed step directions and step lengths following a common distribution. Step directions and step lengths are independent. The case where the number of steps of the particle is fixed and the more general case where it follows an independent continuous time inhomogeneous counting process are considered. Saddlepoint approximations to the distribution of the distance from the position of the particle to the origin are provided. Despite the p-dimensional nature of the random walk, the computations of the saddlepoint approximations are one-dimensional and thus simple. Explicit formulae are derived with dimension p = 3: for uniformly and exponentially distributed step lengths, for fixed and for Poisson distributed number of steps. In these situations, the high accuracy of the saddlepoint approximations is illustrated by numerical comparisons with Monte Carlo simulation. Contribution to the "Topical Issue: Continuous Time Random Walk Still Trendy: Fifty-year History, Current State and Outlook", edited by Ryszard Kutner and Jaume Masoliver.

  19. Stabilization of Continuous-Time Random Switching Systems via a Fault-Tolerant Controller

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guoliang Wang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper focuses on the stabilization problem of continuous-time random switching systems via exploiting a fault-tolerant controller, where the dwell time of each subsystem consists of a fixed part and random part. It is known from the traditional design methods that the computational complexity of LMIs related to the quantity of fault combination is very large; particularly system dimension or amount of subsystems is large. In order to reduce the number of the used fault combinations, new sufficient LMI conditions for designing such a controller are established by a robust approach, which are fault-free and could be solved directly. Moreover, the fault-tolerant stabilization realized by a mode-independent controller is considered and suitably applied to a practical case without mode information. Finally, a numerical example is used to demonstrate the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed methods.

  20. Continuous-time random walks on networks with vertex- and time-dependent forcing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Angstmann, C N; Donnelly, I C; Henry, B I; Langlands, T A M

    2013-08-01

    We have investigated the transport of particles moving as random walks on the vertices of a network, subject to vertex- and time-dependent forcing. We have derived the generalized master equations for this transport using continuous time random walks, characterized by jump and waiting time densities, as the underlying stochastic process. The forcing is incorporated through a vertex- and time-dependent bias in the jump densities governing the random walking particles. As a particular case, we consider particle forcing proportional to the concentration of particles on adjacent vertices, analogous to self-chemotactic attraction in a spatial continuum. Our algebraic and numerical studies of this system reveal an interesting pair-aggregation pattern formation in which the steady state is composed of a high concentration of particles on a small number of isolated pairs of adjacent vertices. The steady states do not exhibit this pair aggregation if the transport is random on the vertices, i.e., without forcing. The manifestation of pair aggregation on a transport network may thus be a signature of self-chemotactic-like forcing.

  1. Anomalous dispersion in correlated porous media: a coupled continuous time random walk approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Comolli, Alessandro; Dentz, Marco

    2017-09-01

    We study the causes of anomalous dispersion in Darcy-scale porous media characterized by spatially heterogeneous hydraulic properties. Spatial variability in hydraulic conductivity leads to spatial variability in the flow properties through Darcy's law and thus impacts on solute and particle transport. We consider purely advective transport in heterogeneity scenarios characterized by broad distributions of heterogeneity length scales and point values. Particle transport is characterized in terms of the stochastic properties of equidistantly sampled Lagrangian velocities, which are determined by the flow and conductivity statistics. The persistence length scales of flow and transport velocities are imprinted in the spatial disorder and reflect the distribution of heterogeneity length scales. Particle transitions over the velocity length scales are kinematically coupled with the transition time through velocity. We show that the average particle motion follows a coupled continuous time random walk (CTRW), which is fully parameterized by the distribution of flow velocities and the medium geometry in terms of the heterogeneity length scales. The coupled CTRW provides a systematic framework for the investigation of the origins of anomalous dispersion in terms of heterogeneity correlation and the distribution of conductivity point values. We derive analytical expressions for the asymptotic scaling of the moments of the spatial particle distribution and first arrival time distribution (FATD), and perform numerical particle tracking simulations of the coupled CTRW to capture the full average transport behavior. Broad distributions of heterogeneity point values and lengths scales may lead to very similar dispersion behaviors in terms of the spatial variance. Their mechanisms, however are very different, which manifests in the distributions of particle positions and arrival times, which plays a central role for the prediction of the fate of dissolved substances in

  2. Integrating Continuous-Time and Discrete-Event Concepts in Process Modelling, Simulation and Control

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beek, van D.A.; Gordijn, S.H.F.; Rooda, J.E.; Ertas, A.

    1995-01-01

    Currently, modelling of systems in the process industry requires the use of different specification languages for the specification of the discrete-event and continuous-time subsystems. In this way, models are restricted to individual subsystems of either a continuous-time or discrete-event nature.

  3. From discrete-time models to continuous-time, asynchronous modeling of financial markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boer, Katalin; Kaymak, Uzay; Spiering, Jaap

    2007-01-01

    Most agent-based simulation models of financial markets are discrete-time in nature. In this paper, we investigate to what degree such models are extensible to continuous-time, asynchronous modeling of financial markets. We study the behavior of a learning market maker in a market with information

  4. From Discrete-Time Models to Continuous-Time, Asynchronous Models of Financial Markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    K. Boer-Sorban (Katalin); U. Kaymak (Uzay); J. Spiering (Jaap)

    2006-01-01

    textabstractMost agent-based simulation models of financial markets are discrete-time in nature. In this paper, we investigate to what degree such models are extensible to continuous-time, asynchronous modelling of financial markets. We study the behaviour of a learning market maker in a market with

  5. Fluctuations around equilibrium laws in ergodic continuous-time random walks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schulz, Johannes H P; Barkai, Eli

    2015-06-01

    We study occupation time statistics in ergodic continuous-time random walks. Under thermal detailed balance conditions, the average occupation time is given by the Boltzmann-Gibbs canonical law. But close to the nonergodic phase, the finite-time fluctuations around this mean are large and nontrivial. They exhibit dual time scaling and distribution laws: the infinite density of large fluctuations complements the Lévy-stable density of bulk fluctuations. Neither of the two should be interpreted as a stand-alone limiting law, as each has its own deficiency: the infinite density has an infinite norm (despite particle conservation), while the stable distribution has an infinite variance (although occupation times are bounded). These unphysical divergences are remedied by consistent use and interpretation of both formulas. Interestingly, while the system's canonical equilibrium laws naturally determine the mean occupation time of the ergodic motion, they also control the infinite and Lévy-stable densities of fluctuations. The duality of stable and infinite densities is in fact ubiquitous for these dynamics, as it concerns the time averages of general physical observables.

  6. A continuous-time random-walk approach to the Cole-Davidson dielectric response of dipolar liquids

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Szabat, B.; Langner, K. M.; Klösgen-Buchkremer, Beate Maria

    2004-01-01

    We show how the Cole-Davidson relaxation response, characteristic of alcoholic systems, can be derived within the framework of the continuous-time random walk (CTRW). Using the random-variable formalism, we indicate that the high-frequency power law of dielectric spectra is determined by the heavy...

  7. A continuous-time random-walk approach to the Cole-Davidson dielectric response of dipolar liquids

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Szabat, Bozena; Langner, Karol M.; Klösgen, Beate Maria

    2005-01-01

    We show how the Cole-Davidson relaxation response, characteristic of alcoholic systems, can be derived within the framework of the continuous-time random walk 4CTRW). Using the random-variable formalism, we indicate that the high-frequency power law of dielectric spectra is determined by the heav...

  8. A joint logistic regression and covariate-adjusted continuous-time Markov chain model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rubin, Maria Laura; Chan, Wenyaw; Yamal, Jose-Miguel; Robertson, Claudia Sue

    2017-12-10

    The use of longitudinal measurements to predict a categorical outcome is an increasingly common goal in research studies. Joint models are commonly used to describe two or more models simultaneously by considering the correlated nature of their outcomes and the random error present in the longitudinal measurements. However, there is limited research on joint models with longitudinal predictors and categorical cross-sectional outcomes. Perhaps the most challenging task is how to model the longitudinal predictor process such that it represents the true biological mechanism that dictates the association with the categorical response. We propose a joint logistic regression and Markov chain model to describe a binary cross-sectional response, where the unobserved transition rates of a two-state continuous-time Markov chain are included as covariates. We use the method of maximum likelihood to estimate the parameters of our model. In a simulation study, coverage probabilities of about 95%, standard deviations close to standard errors, and low biases for the parameter values show that our estimation method is adequate. We apply the proposed joint model to a dataset of patients with traumatic brain injury to describe and predict a 6-month outcome based on physiological data collected post-injury and admission characteristics. Our analysis indicates that the information provided by physiological changes over time may help improve prediction of long-term functional status of these severely ill subjects. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  9. Robust model predictive control for constrained continuous-time nonlinear systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Tairen; Pan, Yongping; Zhang, Jun; Yu, Haoyong

    2018-02-01

    In this paper, a robust model predictive control (MPC) is designed for a class of constrained continuous-time nonlinear systems with bounded additive disturbances. The robust MPC consists of a nonlinear feedback control and a continuous-time model-based dual-mode MPC. The nonlinear feedback control guarantees the actual trajectory being contained in a tube centred at the nominal trajectory. The dual-mode MPC is designed to ensure asymptotic convergence of the nominal trajectory to zero. This paper extends current results on discrete-time model-based tube MPC and linear system model-based tube MPC to continuous-time nonlinear model-based tube MPC. The feasibility and robustness of the proposed robust MPC have been demonstrated by theoretical analysis and applications to a cart-damper springer system and a one-link robot manipulator.

  10. Subgeometric Ergodicity Analysis of Continuous-Time Markov Chains under Random-Time State-Dependent Lyapunov Drift Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mokaedi V. Lekgari

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available We investigate random-time state-dependent Foster-Lyapunov analysis on subgeometric rate ergodicity of continuous-time Markov chains (CTMCs. We are mainly concerned with making use of the available results on deterministic state-dependent drift conditions for CTMCs and on random-time state-dependent drift conditions for discrete-time Markov chains and transferring them to CTMCs.

  11. Neural-Fuzzy Digital Strategy of Continuous-Time Nonlinear Systems Using Adaptive Prediction and Random-Local-Optimization Design

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhi-Ren Tsai

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available A tracking problem, time-delay, uncertainty and stability analysis of a predictive control system are considered. The predictive control design is based on the input and output of neural plant model (NPM, and a recursive fuzzy predictive tracker has scaling factors which limit the value zone of measured data and cause the tuned parameters to converge to obtain a robust control performance. To improve the further control performance, the proposed random-local-optimization design (RLO for a model/controller uses offline initialization to obtain a near global optimal model/controller. Other issues are the considerations of modeling error, input-delay, sampling distortion, cost, greater flexibility, and highly reliable digital products of the model-based controller for the continuous-time (CT nonlinear system. They are solved by a recommended two-stage control design with the first-stage (offline RLO and second-stage (online adaptive steps. A theorizing method is then put forward to replace the sensitivity calculation, which reduces the calculation of Jacobin matrices of the back-propagation (BP method. Finally, the feedforward input of reference signals helps the digital fuzzy controller improve the control performance, and the technique works to control the CT systems precisely.

  12. Correlated continuous time random walks: combining scale-invariance with long-range memory for spatial and temporal dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schulz, Johannes H P; Chechkin, Aleksei V; Metzler, Ralf

    2013-01-01

    Standard continuous time random walk (CTRW) models are renewal processes in the sense that at each jump a new, independent pair of jump length and waiting time are chosen. Globally, anomalous diffusion emerges through scale-free forms of the jump length and/or waiting time distributions by virtue of the generalized central limit theorem. Here we present a modified version of recently proposed correlated CTRW processes, where we incorporate a power-law correlated noise on the level of both jump length and waiting time dynamics. We obtain a very general stochastic model, that encompasses key features of several paradigmatic models of anomalous diffusion: discontinuous, scale-free displacements as in Lévy flights, scale-free waiting times as in subdiffusive CTRWs, and the long-range temporal correlations of fractional Brownian motion (FBM). We derive the exact solutions for the single-time probability density functions and extract the scaling behaviours. Interestingly, we find that different combinations of the model parameters lead to indistinguishable shapes of the emerging probability density functions and identical scaling laws. Our model will be useful for describing recent experimental single particle tracking data that feature a combination of CTRW and FBM properties. (paper)

  13. A mathematical approach for evaluating Markov models in continuous time without discrete-event simulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Rosmalen, Joost; Toy, Mehlika; O'Mahony, James F

    2013-08-01

    Markov models are a simple and powerful tool for analyzing the health and economic effects of health care interventions. These models are usually evaluated in discrete time using cohort analysis. The use of discrete time assumes that changes in health states occur only at the end of a cycle period. Discrete-time Markov models only approximate the process of disease progression, as clinical events typically occur in continuous time. The approximation can yield biased cost-effectiveness estimates for Markov models with long cycle periods and if no half-cycle correction is made. The purpose of this article is to present an overview of methods for evaluating Markov models in continuous time. These methods use mathematical results from stochastic process theory and control theory. The methods are illustrated using an applied example on the cost-effectiveness of antiviral therapy for chronic hepatitis B. The main result is a mathematical solution for the expected time spent in each state in a continuous-time Markov model. It is shown how this solution can account for age-dependent transition rates and discounting of costs and health effects, and how the concept of tunnel states can be used to account for transition rates that depend on the time spent in a state. The applied example shows that the continuous-time model yields more accurate results than the discrete-time model but does not require much computation time and is easily implemented. In conclusion, continuous-time Markov models are a feasible alternative to cohort analysis and can offer several theoretical and practical advantages.

  14. Continuous time Boolean modeling for biological signaling: application of Gillespie algorithm.

    OpenAIRE

    Stoll, Gautier; Viara, Eric; Barillot, Emmanuel; Calzone, Laurence

    2012-01-01

    Abstract Mathematical modeling is used as a Systems Biology tool to answer biological questions, and more precisely, to validate a network that describes biological observations and predict the effect of perturbations. This article presents an algorithm for modeling biological networks in a discrete framework with continuous time. Background There exist two major types of mathematical modeling approaches: (1) quantitative modeling, representing various chemical species concentrations by real...

  15. A continuous time model of the bandwagon effect in collective action

    OpenAIRE

    Arieh Gavious; Shlomo Mizrahi

    2001-01-01

    The paper offers a complex and systematic model of the bandwagon effect in collective action using continuous time equations. The model treats the bandwagon effect as a process influenced by ratio between the mobilization efforts of social activists and the resources invested by the government to counteract this activity. The complex modeling approach makes it possible to identify the conditions for specific types of the bandwagon effect, and determines the scope of that effect. Relying on ce...

  16. A comparison of numerical methods for the solution of continuous-time DSGE models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Parra-Alvarez, Juan Carlos

    This paper evaluates the accuracy of a set of techniques that approximate the solution of continuous-time DSGE models. Using the neoclassical growth model I compare linear-quadratic, perturbation and projection methods. All techniques are applied to the HJB equation and the optimality conditions...... parameters of the model and suggest the use of projection methods when a high degree of accuracy is required....

  17. Continuous Time Random Walk and different diffusive regimes - doi: 10.4025/actascitechnol.v34i2.11521

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haroldo Valetin Ribeiro

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available We investigate how it is possible to obtain different diffusive regimes from the Continuous Time Random Walk (CTRW approach performing suitable changes for the waiting time and jumping distributions in order to get two or more regimes for the same diffusive process. We also obtain diffusion-like equations related to these processes and investigate the connection of the results with anomalous diffusion. 

  18. An introduction to continuous-time stochastic processes theory, models, and applications to finance, biology, and medicine

    CERN Document Server

    Capasso, Vincenzo

    2015-01-01

    This textbook, now in its third edition, offers a rigorous and self-contained introduction to the theory of continuous-time stochastic processes, stochastic integrals, and stochastic differential equations. Expertly balancing theory and applications, the work features concrete examples of modeling real-world problems from biology, medicine, industrial applications, finance, and insurance using stochastic methods. No previous knowledge of stochastic processes is required. Key topics include: * Markov processes * Stochastic differential equations * Arbitrage-free markets and financial derivatives * Insurance risk * Population dynamics, and epidemics * Agent-based models New to the Third Edition: * Infinitely divisible distributions * Random measures * Levy processes * Fractional Brownian motion * Ergodic theory * Karhunen-Loeve expansion * Additional applications * Additional  exercises * Smoluchowski  approximation of  Langevin systems An Introduction to Continuous-Time Stochastic Processes, Third Editio...

  19. Structure and Randomness of Continuous-Time, Discrete-Event Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marzen, Sarah E.; Crutchfield, James P.

    2017-10-01

    Loosely speaking, the Shannon entropy rate is used to gauge a stochastic process' intrinsic randomness; the statistical complexity gives the cost of predicting the process. We calculate, for the first time, the entropy rate and statistical complexity of stochastic processes generated by finite unifilar hidden semi-Markov models—memoryful, state-dependent versions of renewal processes. Calculating these quantities requires introducing novel mathematical objects (ɛ -machines of hidden semi-Markov processes) and new information-theoretic methods to stochastic processes.

  20. Time inconsistency and reputation in monetary policy: a strategic model in continuous time

    OpenAIRE

    Li, Jingyuan; Tian, Guoqiang

    2005-01-01

    This article develops a model to examine the equilibrium behavior of the time inconsistency problem in a continuous time economy with stochastic and endogenized dis- tortion. First, the authors introduce the notion of sequentially rational equilibrium, and show that the time inconsistency problem may be solved with trigger reputation strategies for stochastic setting. The conditions for the existence of sequentially rational equilibrium are provided. Then, the concept of sequen...

  1. Numerical solution of continuous-time DSGE models under Poisson uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Posch, Olaf; Trimborn, Timo

    We propose a simple and powerful method for determining the transition process in continuous-time DSGE models under Poisson uncertainty numerically. The idea is to transform the system of stochastic differential equations into a system of functional differential equations of the retarded type. We...... classes of models. We illustrate the algorithm simulating both the stochastic neoclassical growth model and the Lucas model under Poisson uncertainty which is motivated by the Barro-Rietz rare disaster hypothesis. We find that, even for non-linear policy functions, the maximum (absolute) error is very...

  2. Continuous time modelling of dynamical spatial lattice data observed at sparsely distributed times

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Jakob Gulddahl; Møller, Jesper

    2007-01-01

    Summary. We consider statistical and computational aspects of simulation-based Bayesian inference for a spatial-temporal model based on a multivariate point process which is only observed at sparsely distributed times. The point processes are indexed by the sites of a spatial lattice......, and they exhibit spatial interaction. For specificity we consider a particular dynamical spatial lattice data set which has previously been analysed by a discrete time model involving unknown normalizing constants. We discuss the advantages and disadvantages of using continuous time processes compared...... with discrete time processes in the setting of the present paper as well as other spatial-temporal situations....

  3. A Continuous-Time Agency Model of Optimal Contracting and Capital Structure

    OpenAIRE

    Peter M. DeMarzo; Yuliy Sannikov

    2004-01-01

    We consider a principal-agent model in which the agent needs to raise capital from the principal to finance a project. Our model is based on DeMarzo and Fishman (2003), except that the agent's cash flows are given by a Brownian motion with drift in continuous time. The difficulty in writing an appropriate financial contract in this setting is that the agent can conceal and divert cash flows for his own consumption rather than pay back the principal. Alternatively, the agent may reduce the mea...

  4. Continuous time modelling with individually varying time intervals for oscillating and non-oscillating processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voelkle, Manuel C; Oud, Johan H L

    2013-02-01

    When designing longitudinal studies, researchers often aim at equal intervals. In practice, however, this goal is hardly ever met, with different time intervals between assessment waves and different time intervals between individuals being more the rule than the exception. One of the reasons for the introduction of continuous time models by means of structural equation modelling has been to deal with irregularly spaced assessment waves (e.g., Oud & Delsing, 2010). In the present paper we extend the approach to individually varying time intervals for oscillating and non-oscillating processes. In addition, we show not only that equal intervals are unnecessary but also that it can be advantageous to use unequal sampling intervals, in particular when the sampling rate is low. Two examples are provided to support our arguments. In the first example we compare a continuous time model of a bivariate coupled process with varying time intervals to a standard discrete time model to illustrate the importance of accounting for the exact time intervals. In the second example the effect of different sampling intervals on estimating a damped linear oscillator is investigated by means of a Monte Carlo simulation. We conclude that it is important to account for individually varying time intervals, and encourage researchers to conceive of longitudinal studies with different time intervals within and between individuals as an opportunity rather than a problem. © 2012 The British Psychological Society.

  5. Modeling commodity salam contract between two parties for discrete and continuous time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hisham, Azie Farhani Badrol; Jaffar, Maheran Mohd

    2017-08-01

    In order for Islamic finance to remain competitive as the conventional, there needs a new development of Islamic compliance product such as Islamic derivative that can be used to manage the risk. However, under syariah principles and regulations, all financial instruments must not be conflicting with five syariah elements which are riba (interest paid), rishwah (corruption), gharar (uncertainty or unnecessary risk), maysir (speculation or gambling) and jahl (taking advantage of the counterparty's ignorance). This study has proposed a traditional Islamic contract namely salam that can be built as an Islamic derivative product. Although a lot of studies has been done on discussing and proposing the implementation of salam contract as the Islamic product however they are more into qualitative and law issues. Since there is lack of quantitative study of salam contract being developed, this study introduces mathematical models that can value the appropriate salam price for a commodity salam contract between two parties. In modeling the commodity salam contract, this study has modified the existing conventional derivative model and come out with some adjustments to comply with syariah rules and regulations. The cost of carry model has been chosen as the foundation to develop the commodity salam model between two parties for discrete and continuous time series. However, the conventional time value of money results from the concept of interest that is prohibited in Islam. Therefore, this study has adopted the idea of Islamic time value of money which is known as the positive time preference, in modeling the commodity salam contract between two parties for discrete and continuous time series.

  6. Continuous time Boolean modeling for biological signaling: application of Gillespie algorithm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stoll, Gautier; Viara, Eric; Barillot, Emmanuel; Calzone, Laurence

    2012-08-29

    Mathematical modeling is used as a Systems Biology tool to answer biological questions, and more precisely, to validate a network that describes biological observations and predict the effect of perturbations. This article presents an algorithm for modeling biological networks in a discrete framework with continuous time. There exist two major types of mathematical modeling approaches: (1) quantitative modeling, representing various chemical species concentrations by real numbers, mainly based on differential equations and chemical kinetics formalism; (2) and qualitative modeling, representing chemical species concentrations or activities by a finite set of discrete values. Both approaches answer particular (and often different) biological questions. Qualitative modeling approach permits a simple and less detailed description of the biological systems, efficiently describes stable state identification but remains inconvenient in describing the transient kinetics leading to these states. In this context, time is represented by discrete steps. Quantitative modeling, on the other hand, can describe more accurately the dynamical behavior of biological processes as it follows the evolution of concentration or activities of chemical species as a function of time, but requires an important amount of information on the parameters difficult to find in the literature. Here, we propose a modeling framework based on a qualitative approach that is intrinsically continuous in time. The algorithm presented in this article fills the gap between qualitative and quantitative modeling. It is based on continuous time Markov process applied on a Boolean state space. In order to describe the temporal evolution of the biological process we wish to model, we explicitly specify the transition rates for each node. For that purpose, we built a language that can be seen as a generalization of Boolean equations. Mathematically, this approach can be translated in a set of ordinary differential

  7. Distributed synthesis in continuous time

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hermanns, Holger; Krčál, Jan; Vester, Steen

    2016-01-01

    We introduce a formalism modelling communication of distributed agents strictly in continuous-time. Within this framework, we study the problem of synthesising local strategies for individual agents such that a specified set of goal states is reached, or reached with at least a given probability....... The flow of time is modelled explicitly based on continuous-time randomness, with two natural implications: First, the non-determinism stemming from interleaving disappears. Second, when we restrict to a subclass of non-urgent models, the quantitative value problem for two players can be solved in EXPTIME....... Indeed, the explicit continuous time enables players to communicate their states by delaying synchronisation (which is unrestricted for non-urgent models). In general, the problems are undecidable already for two players in the quantitative case and three players in the qualitative case. The qualitative...

  8. Continuous-time modeling of cell fate determination in Arabidopsis flowers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Angenent Gerco C

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The genetic control of floral organ specification is currently being investigated by various approaches, both experimentally and through modeling. Models and simulations have mostly involved boolean or related methods, and so far a quantitative, continuous-time approach has not been explored. Results We propose an ordinary differential equation (ODE model that describes the gene expression dynamics of a gene regulatory network that controls floral organ formation in the model plant Arabidopsis thaliana. In this model, the dimerization of MADS-box transcription factors is incorporated explicitly. The unknown parameters are estimated from (known experimental expression data. The model is validated by simulation studies of known mutant plants. Conclusions The proposed model gives realistic predictions with respect to independent mutation data. A simulation study is carried out to predict the effects of a new type of mutation that has so far not been made in Arabidopsis, but that could be used as a severe test of the validity of the model. According to our predictions, the role of dimers is surprisingly important. Moreover, the functional loss of any dimer leads to one or more phenotypic alterations.

  9. Transport properties of the continuous-time random walk with a long-tailed waiting-time density

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weissman, H.; Havlin, S.; Weiss, G.H.

    1989-01-01

    The authors derive asymptotic properties of the propagator p(r, t) of a continuous-time random walk (CTRW) in which the waiting time density has the asymptotic form ψ(t) ∼ T α /t α+1 when t >> T and 0 = ∫ 0 ∞ τψ(τ)dτ is finite. One is that the asymptotic behavior of p(0, t) is demonstrated by the waiting time at the origin rather than by the dimension. The second difference is that in the presence of a field p(r, t) no longer remains symmetric around a moving peak. Rather, it is shown that the peak of this probability always occurs at r = 0, and the effect of the field is to break the symmetry that occurs when < ∞. Finally, they calculate similar properties, although in not such great detail, for the case in which the single-step jump probabilities themselves have an infinite mean

  10. An Expectation Maximization Algorithm to Model Failure Times by Continuous-Time Markov Chains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qihong Duan

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available In many applications, the failure rate function may present a bathtub shape curve. In this paper, an expectation maximization algorithm is proposed to construct a suitable continuous-time Markov chain which models the failure time data by the first time reaching the absorbing state. Assume that a system is described by methods of supplementary variables, the device of stage, and so on. Given a data set, the maximum likelihood estimators of the initial distribution and the infinitesimal transition rates of the Markov chain can be obtained by our novel algorithm. Suppose that there are m transient states in the system and that there are n failure time data. The devised algorithm only needs to compute the exponential of m×m upper triangular matrices for O(nm2 times in each iteration. Finally, the algorithm is applied to two real data sets, which indicates the practicality and efficiency of our algorithm.

  11. Offset-Free Direct Power Control of DFIG Under Continuous-Time Model Predictive Control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Errouissi, Rachid; Al-Durra, Ahmed; Muyeen, S.M.

    2017-01-01

    This paper presents a robust continuous-time model predictive direct power control for doubly fed induction generator (DFIG). The proposed approach uses Taylor series expansion to predict the stator current in the synchronous reference frame over a finite time horizon. The predicted stator current...... is directly used to compute the required rotor voltage in order to minimize the difference between the actual stator currents and their references over the predictive time. However, as the proposed strategy is sensitive to parameter variations and external disturbances, a disturbance observer is embedded...... into the control loop to remove the steady-state error of the stator current. It turns out that the steady-state and the transient performances can be identified by simple design parameters. In this paper, the reference of the stator current is directly calculated from the desired stator active and reactive powers...

  12. An approach to the drone fleet survivability assessment based on a stochastic continues-time model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kharchenko, Vyacheslav; Fesenko, Herman; Doukas, Nikos

    2017-09-01

    An approach and the algorithm to the drone fleet survivability assessment based on a stochastic continues-time model are proposed. The input data are the number of the drones, the drone fleet redundancy coefficient, the drone stability and restoration rate, the limit deviation from the norms of the drone fleet recovery, the drone fleet operational availability coefficient, the probability of the drone failure-free operation, time needed for performing the required tasks by the drone fleet. The ways for improving the recoverable drone fleet survivability taking into account amazing factors of system accident are suggested. Dependencies of the drone fleet survivability rate both on the drone stability and the number of the drones are analysed.

  13. Continuous-time interval model identification of blood glucose dynamics for type 1 diabetes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirchsteiger, Harald; Johansson, Rolf; Renard, Eric; del Re, Luigi

    2014-07-01

    While good physiological models of the glucose metabolism in type 1 diabetic patients are well known, their parameterisation is difficult. The high intra-patient variability observed is a further major obstacle. This holds for data-based models too, so that no good patient-specific models are available. Against this background, this paper proposes the use of interval models to cover the different metabolic conditions. The control-oriented models contain a carbohydrate and insulin sensitivity factor to be used for insulin bolus calculators directly. Available clinical measurements were sampled on an irregular schedule which prompts the use of continuous-time identification, also for the direct estimation of the clinically interpretable factors mentioned above. An identification method is derived and applied to real data from 28 diabetic patients. Model estimation was done on a clinical data-set, whereas validation results shown were done on an out-of-clinic, everyday life data-set. The results show that the interval model approach allows a much more regular estimation of the parameters and avoids physiologically incompatible parameter estimates.

  14. Discrete- vs. Continuous-Time Modeling of Unequally Spaced Experience Sampling Method Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silvia de Haan-Rietdijk

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available The Experience Sampling Method is a common approach in psychological research for collecting intensive longitudinal data with high ecological validity. One characteristic of ESM data is that it is often unequally spaced, because the measurement intervals within a day are deliberately varied, and measurement continues over several days. This poses a problem for discrete-time (DT modeling approaches, which are based on the assumption that all measurements are equally spaced. Nevertheless, DT approaches such as (vector autoregressive modeling are often used to analyze ESM data, for instance in the context of affective dynamics research. There are equivalent continuous-time (CT models, but they are more difficult to implement. In this paper we take a pragmatic approach and evaluate the practical relevance of the violated model assumption in DT AR(1 and VAR(1 models, for the N = 1 case. We use simulated data under an ESM measurement design to investigate the bias in the parameters of interest under four different model implementations, ranging from the true CT model that accounts for all the exact measurement times, to the crudest possible DT model implementation, where even the nighttime is treated as a regular interval. An analysis of empirical affect data illustrates how the differences between DT and CT modeling can play out in practice. We find that the size and the direction of the bias in DT (VAR models for unequally spaced ESM data depend quite strongly on the true parameter in addition to data characteristics. Our recommendation is to use CT modeling whenever possible, especially now that new software implementations have become available.

  15. Learning a Continuous-Time Streaming Video QoE Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghadiyaram, Deepti; Pan, Janice; Bovik, Alan C

    2018-05-01

    Over-the-top adaptive video streaming services are frequently impacted by fluctuating network conditions that can lead to rebuffering events (stalling events) and sudden bitrate changes. These events visually impact video consumers' quality of experience (QoE) and can lead to consumer churn. The development of models that can accurately predict viewers' instantaneous subjective QoE under such volatile network conditions could potentially enable the more efficient design of quality-control protocols for media-driven services, such as YouTube, Amazon, Netflix, and so on. However, most existing models only predict a single overall QoE score on a given video and are based on simple global video features, without accounting for relevant aspects of human perception and behavior. We have created a QoE evaluator, called the time-varying QoE Indexer, that accounts for interactions between stalling events, analyzes the spatial and temporal content of a video, predicts the perceptual video quality, models the state of the client-side data buffer, and consequently predicts continuous-time quality scores that agree quite well with human opinion scores. The new QoE predictor also embeds the impact of relevant human cognitive factors, such as memory and recency, and their complex interactions with the video content being viewed. We evaluated the proposed model on three different video databases and attained standout QoE prediction performance.

  16. Vibration analysis diagnostics by continuous-time models: A case study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pedregal, Diego J.; Carmen Carnero, Ma.

    2009-01-01

    In this paper a forecasting system in condition monitoring is developed based on vibration signals in order to improve the diagnosis of a certain critical equipment at an industrial plant. The system is based on statistical models capable of forecasting the state of the equipment combined with a cost model consisting of defining the time of preventive replacement when the minimum of the expected cost per unit of time is reached in the future. The most relevant features of the system are that (i) it is developed for bivariate signals; (ii) the statistical models are set up in a continuous-time framework, due to the specific nature of the data; and (iii) it has been developed from scratch for a real case study and may be generalised to other pieces of equipment. The system is thoroughly tested on the equipment available, showing its correctness with the data in a statistical sense and its capability of producing sensible results for the condition monitoring programme

  17. Vibration analysis diagnostics by continuous-time models: A case study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pedregal, Diego J. [Escuela Tecnica Superior de Ingenieros Industriales, Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha, 13071 Ciudad Real (Spain)], E-mail: Diego.Pedregal@uclm.es; Carmen Carnero, Ma. [Escuela Tecnica Superior de Ingenieros Industriales, Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha, 13071 Ciudad Real (Spain)], E-mail: Carmen.Carnero@uclm.es

    2009-02-15

    In this paper a forecasting system in condition monitoring is developed based on vibration signals in order to improve the diagnosis of a certain critical equipment at an industrial plant. The system is based on statistical models capable of forecasting the state of the equipment combined with a cost model consisting of defining the time of preventive replacement when the minimum of the expected cost per unit of time is reached in the future. The most relevant features of the system are that (i) it is developed for bivariate signals; (ii) the statistical models are set up in a continuous-time framework, due to the specific nature of the data; and (iii) it has been developed from scratch for a real case study and may be generalised to other pieces of equipment. The system is thoroughly tested on the equipment available, showing its correctness with the data in a statistical sense and its capability of producing sensible results for the condition monitoring programme.

  18. Fitting and interpreting continuous-time latent Markov models for panel data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lange, Jane M; Minin, Vladimir N

    2013-11-20

    Multistate models characterize disease processes within an individual. Clinical studies often observe the disease status of individuals at discrete time points, making exact times of transitions between disease states unknown. Such panel data pose considerable modeling challenges. Assuming the disease process progresses accordingly, a standard continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC) yields tractable likelihoods, but the assumption of exponential sojourn time distributions is typically unrealistic. More flexible semi-Markov models permit generic sojourn distributions yet yield intractable likelihoods for panel data in the presence of reversible transitions. One attractive alternative is to assume that the disease process is characterized by an underlying latent CTMC, with multiple latent states mapping to each disease state. These models retain analytic tractability due to the CTMC framework but allow for flexible, duration-dependent disease state sojourn distributions. We have developed a robust and efficient expectation-maximization algorithm in this context. Our complete data state space consists of the observed data and the underlying latent trajectory, yielding computationally efficient expectation and maximization steps. Our algorithm outperforms alternative methods measured in terms of time to convergence and robustness. We also examine the frequentist performance of latent CTMC point and interval estimates of disease process functionals based on simulated data. The performance of estimates depends on time, functional, and data-generating scenario. Finally, we illustrate the interpretive power of latent CTMC models for describing disease processes on a dataset of lung transplant patients. We hope our work will encourage wider use of these models in the biomedical setting. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  19. Using continuous time stochastic modelling and nonparametric statistics to improve the quality of first principles models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    A methodology is presented that combines modelling based on first principles and data based modelling into a modelling cycle that facilitates fast decision-making based on statistical methods. A strong feature of this methodology is that given a first principles model along with process data......, the corresponding modelling cycle model of the given system for a given purpose. A computer-aided tool, which integrates the elements of the modelling cycle, is also presented, and an example is given of modelling a fed-batch bioreactor....

  20. Anomalous stress diffusion, Omori's law and Continuous Time Random Walk in the 2010 Efpalion aftershock sequence (Corinth rift, Greece)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michas, Georgios; Vallianatos, Filippos; Karakostas, Vassilios; Papadimitriou, Eleftheria; Sammonds, Peter

    2014-05-01

    Efpalion aftershock sequence occurred in January 2010, when an M=5.5 earthquake was followed four days later by another strong event (M=5.4) and numerous aftershocks (Karakostas et al., 2012). This activity interrupted a 15 years period of low to moderate earthquake occurrence in Corinth rift, where the last major event was the 1995 Aigion earthquake (M=6.2). Coulomb stress analysis performed in previous studies (Karakostas et al., 2012; Sokos et al., 2012; Ganas et al., 2013) indicated that the second major event and most of the aftershocks were triggered due to stress transfer. The aftershocks production rate decays as a power-law with time according to the modified Omori law (Utsu et al., 1995) with an exponent larger than one for the first four days, while after the occurrence of the second strong event the exponent turns to unity. We consider the earthquake sequence as a point process in time and space and study its spatiotemporal evolution considering a Continuous Time Random Walk (CTRW) model with a joint probability density function of inter-event times and jumps between the successive earthquakes (Metzler and Klafter, 2000). Jump length distribution exhibits finite variance, whereas inter-event times scale as a q-generalized gamma distribution (Michas et al., 2013) with a long power-law tail. These properties are indicative of a subdiffusive process in terms of CTRW. Additionally, the mean square displacement of aftershocks is constant with time after the occurrence of the first event, while it changes to a power-law with exponent close to 0.15 after the second major event, illustrating a slow diffusive process. During the first four days aftershocks cluster around the epicentral area of the second major event, while after that and taking as a reference the second event, the aftershock zone is migrating slowly with time to the west near the epicentral area of the first event. This process is much slower from what would be expected from normal diffusion, a

  1. A study on the stochastic model for nuclide transport in the fractured porous rock using continuous time Markov process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Youn Myoung

    1995-02-01

    As a newly approaching model, a stochastic model using continuous time Markov process for nuclide decay chain transport of arbitrary length in the fractured porous rock medium has been proposed, by which the need for solving a set of partial differential equations corresponding to various sets of side conditions can be avoided. Once the single planar fracture in the rock matrix is represented by a series of finite number of compartments having region wise constant parameter values in them, the medium is continuous in view of various processes associated with nuclide transport but discrete in medium space and such geologic system is assumed to have Markov property, since the Markov process requires that only the present value of the time dependent random variable be known to determine the future value of random variable, nuclide transport in the medium can then be modeled as a continuous time Markov process. Processes that are involved in nuclide transport are advective transport due to groundwater flow, diffusion into the rock matrix, adsorption onto the wall of the fracture and within the pores in the rock matrix, and radioactive decay chain. The transition probabilities for nuclide from the transition intensities between and out of the compartments are represented utilizing Chapman-Kolmogorov equation, through which the expectation and the variance of nuclide distribution for each compartment or the fractured rock medium can be obtained. Some comparisons between Markov process model developed in this work and available analytical solutions for one-dimensional layered porous medium, fractured medium with rock matrix diffusion, and porous medium considering three member nuclide decay chain without rock matrix diffusion have been made showing comparatively good agreement for all cases. To verify the model developed in this work another comparative study was also made by fitting the experimental data obtained with NaLS and uranine running in the artificial fractured

  2. Stylised facts of financial time series and hidden Markov models in continuous time

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nystrup, Peter; Madsen, Henrik; Lindström, Erik

    2015-01-01

    presents an extension to continuous time where it is possible to increase the number of states with a linear rather than quadratic growth in the number of parameters. The possibility of increasing the number of states leads to a better fit to both the distributional and temporal properties of daily returns....

  3. Continuous-Time Semi-Markov Models in Health Economic Decision Making : An Illustrative Example in Heart Failure Disease Management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cao, Qi; Buskens, Erik; Feenstra, Talitha; Jaarsma, Tiny; Hillege, Hans; Postmus, Douwe

    Continuous-time state transition models may end up having large unwieldy structures when trying to represent all relevant stages of clinical disease processes by means of a standard Markov model. In such situations, a more parsimonious, and therefore easier-to-grasp, model of a patient's disease

  4. Time-aggregation effects on the baseline of continuous-time and discrete-time hazard models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    ter Hofstede, F.; Wedel, M.

    In this study we reinvestigate the effect of time-aggregation for discrete- and continuous-time hazard models. We reanalyze the results of a previous Monte Carlo study by ter Hofstede and Wedel (1998), in which the effects of time-aggregation on the parameter estimates of hazard models were

  5. A Monte Carlo study of time-aggregation in continuous-time and discrete-time parametric hazard models.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hofstede, ter F.; Wedel, M.

    1998-01-01

    This study investigates the effects of time aggregation in discrete and continuous-time hazard models. A Monte Carlo study is conducted in which data are generated according to various continuous and discrete-time processes, and aggregated into daily, weekly and monthly intervals. These data are

  6. Optimal Compensation with Hidden Action and Lump-Sum Payment in a Continuous-Time Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cvitanic, Jaksa; Wan, Xuhu; Zhang Jianfeng

    2009-01-01

    We consider a problem of finding optimal contracts in continuous time, when the agent's actions are unobservable by the principal, who pays the agent with a one-time payoff at the end of the contract. We fully solve the case of quadratic cost and separable utility, for general utility functions. The optimal contract is, in general, a nonlinear function of the final outcome only, while in the previously solved cases, for exponential and linear utility functions, the optimal contract is linear in the final output value. In a specific example we compute, the first-best principal's utility is infinite, while it becomes finite with hidden action, which is increasing in value of the output. In the second part of the paper we formulate a general mathematical theory for the problem. We apply the stochastic maximum principle to give necessary conditions for optimal contracts. Sufficient conditions are hard to establish, but we suggest a way to check sufficiency using non-convex optimization

  7. A hierarchical model for estimating the spatial distribution and abundance of animals detected by continuous-time recorders.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert M Dorazio

    Full Text Available Several spatial capture-recapture (SCR models have been developed to estimate animal abundance by analyzing the detections of individuals in a spatial array of traps. Most of these models do not use the actual dates and times of detection, even though this information is readily available when using continuous-time recorders, such as microphones or motion-activated cameras. Instead most SCR models either partition the period of trap operation into a set of subjectively chosen discrete intervals and ignore multiple detections of the same individual within each interval, or they simply use the frequency of detections during the period of trap operation and ignore the observed times of detection. Both practices make inefficient use of potentially important information in the data.We developed a hierarchical SCR model to estimate the spatial distribution and abundance of animals detected with continuous-time recorders. Our model includes two kinds of point processes: a spatial process to specify the distribution of latent activity centers of individuals within the region of sampling and a temporal process to specify temporal patterns in the detections of individuals. We illustrated this SCR model by analyzing spatial and temporal patterns evident in the camera-trap detections of tigers living in and around the Nagarahole Tiger Reserve in India. We also conducted a simulation study to examine the performance of our model when analyzing data sets of greater complexity than the tiger data.Our approach provides three important benefits: First, it exploits all of the information in SCR data obtained using continuous-time recorders. Second, it is sufficiently versatile to allow the effects of both space use and behavior of animals to be specified as functions of covariates that vary over space and time. Third, it allows both the spatial distribution and abundance of individuals to be estimated, effectively providing a species distribution model, even in

  8. Nuclide transport of decay chain in the fractured rock medium: a model using continuous time Markov process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Younmyoung Lee; Kunjai Lee

    1995-01-01

    A model using continuous time Markov process for nuclide transport of decay chain of arbitrary length in the fractured rock medium has been developed. Considering the fracture in the rock matrix as a finite number of compartments, the transition probability for nuclide from the transition intensity between and out of the compartments is represented utilizing Chapman-Kolmogorov equation, with which the expectation and the variance of nuclide distribution for the fractured rock medium could be obtained. A comparison between continuous time Markov process model and available analytical solutions for the nuclide transport of three decay chains without rock matrix diffusion has been made showing comparatively good agreement. Fittings with experimental breakthrough curves obtained with nonsorbing materials such as NaLS and uranine in the artificial fractured rock are also made. (author)

  9. Flatness-based control and Kalman filtering for a continuous-time macroeconomic model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rigatos, G.; Siano, P.; Ghosh, T.; Busawon, K.; Binns, R.

    2017-11-01

    The article proposes flatness-based control for a nonlinear macro-economic model of the UK economy. The differential flatness properties of the model are proven. This enables to introduce a transformation (diffeomorphism) of the system's state variables and to express the state-space description of the model in the linear canonical (Brunowsky) form in which both the feedback control and the state estimation problem can be solved. For the linearized equivalent model of the macroeconomic system, stabilizing feedback control can be achieved using pole placement methods. Moreover, to implement stabilizing feedback control of the system by measuring only a subset of its state vector elements the Derivative-free nonlinear Kalman Filter is used. This consists of the Kalman Filter recursion applied on the linearized equivalent model of the financial system and of an inverse transformation that is based again on differential flatness theory. The asymptotic stability properties of the control scheme are confirmed.

  10. A continuous time model for a short-term multiproduct batch process scheduling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jenny Díaz Ramírez

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available In the chemical industry, it is common to find production systems characterized by having a single stage or a previously identified bottleneck stage, with multiple non-identical parallel stations and with setup costs that depend on the production sequence. This paper proposes a mixed integer production-scheduling model that identifies lot size and product sequence that maximize profit. It considers multiple typical industry conditions, such as penalties for noncompliance or out of service periods of the productive units (or stations for preventive maintenance activities. The model was validated with real data from an oil chemical company.  Aiming to analyze its performance, we applied the model to 155 instances of production, which were obtained using Monte Carlo technique on the historical production data of the same company.  We obtained an average 12 % reduction in the total cost of production and a 19 % increase in the estimated profit.

  11. Continuous-time state-space unsteady aerodynamic modelling for efficient aeroelastic load analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Werter, N.P.M.; De Breuker, R.; Abdalla, M.M.

    2015-01-01

    Over the years, wings have become lighter and more flexible, making them more prone to aeroelastic effects. Thus, aeroelasticity in design becomes more important. In order to determine the response of an aircraft to, for example, a gust, an unsteady aerodynamic model is required to determine the

  12. An SEM Approach to Continuous Time Modeling of Panel Data: Relating Authoritarianism and Anomia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voelkle, Manuel C.; Oud, Johan H. L.; Davidov, Eldad; Schmidt, Peter

    2012-01-01

    Panel studies, in which the same subjects are repeatedly observed at multiple time points, are among the most popular longitudinal designs in psychology. Meanwhile, there exists a wide range of different methods to analyze such data, with autoregressive and cross-lagged models being 2 of the most well known representatives. Unfortunately, in these…

  13. Identifcation of a Linear COntinuous Time Stochastic Model of the Heat Dynamics of a Greenhouse

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Bjarne; Madsen, Henrik

    1998-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to describe the basis for improving the control of air temperature and heat supply in greenhouses using a method which controls the energy supply by a model-based prediction of the air temperature in the greenhouse. Controllers of this type are the minimum variance co...... controller, the generalized predictive controller and the proportional-integral-plus(PIP) controller. Prediction-based controllers have proved to be powerful in controlling the supply temperature in a distinct heating system....

  14. A continuous time delay-difference type model (CTDDM) applied to stock assessment of the southern Atlantic albacore Thunnus alalunga

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIAO Baochao; LIU Qun; ZHANG Kui; Abdul BASET; Aamir Mahmood MEMON; Khadim Hussain MEMON; HAN Yanan

    2016-01-01

    A continuous time delay-difference model (CTDDM) has been established that considers continuous time delays of biological processes.The southern Atlantic albacore (Thunnus alalunga) stock is the one of the commercially important tuna population in the marine world.The age structured production model (ASPM) and the surplus production model (SPM) have already been used to assess the albacore stock.However,the ASPM requires detailed biological information and the SPM lacks the biological realism.In this study,we focus on applying a CTDDM to the southern Atlantic albacore (T.alalunga) species,which provides an alternative method to assess this fishery.It is the first time that CTDDM has been provided for assessing the Atlantic albacore (T.alalunga) fishery.CTDDM obtained the 80% confidence interval of MSY (maximum sustainable yield) of(21510 t,23118 t).The catch in 2011 (24100 t) is higher than the MSY values and the relative fishing mortality ratio (F2011/FMSY) is higher than 1.0.The results of CTDDM were analyzed to verify the proposed methodology and provide reference information for the sustainable management of the southern Atlantic albacore stock.The CTDDM treats the recruitment,the growth,and the mortality rates as all varying continuously over time and fills gaps between ASPM and SPM in this stock assessment.

  15. Application of Stochastic Automata Networks for Creation of Continuous Time Markov Chain Models of Voltage Gating of Gap Junction Channels

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mindaugas Snipas

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The primary goal of this work was to study advantages of numerical methods used for the creation of continuous time Markov chain models (CTMC of voltage gating of gap junction (GJ channels composed of connexin protein. This task was accomplished by describing gating of GJs using the formalism of the stochastic automata networks (SANs, which allowed for very efficient building and storing of infinitesimal generator of the CTMC that allowed to produce matrices of the models containing a distinct block structure. All of that allowed us to develop efficient numerical methods for a steady-state solution of CTMC models. This allowed us to accelerate CPU time, which is necessary to solve CTMC models, ∼20 times.

  16. Estimation of non-linear continuous time models for the heat exchange dynamics of building integrated photovoltaic modules

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jimenez, M.J.; Madsen, Henrik; Bloem, J.J.

    2008-01-01

    This paper focuses on a method for linear or non-linear continuous time modelling of physical systems using discrete time data. This approach facilitates a more appropriate modelling of more realistic non-linear systems. Particularly concerning advanced building components, convective and radiati...... that a description of the non-linear heat transfer is essential. The resulting model is a non-linear first order stochastic differential equation for the heat transfer of the PV component....... heat interchanges are non-linear effects and represent significant contributions in a variety of components such as photovoltaic integrated facades or roofs and those using these effects as passive cooling strategies, etc. Since models are approximations of the physical system and data is encumbered...

  17. Application of Stochastic Automata Networks for Creation of Continuous Time Markov Chain Models of Voltage Gating of Gap Junction Channels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pranevicius, Henrikas; Pranevicius, Mindaugas; Pranevicius, Osvaldas; Bukauskas, Feliksas F.

    2015-01-01

    The primary goal of this work was to study advantages of numerical methods used for the creation of continuous time Markov chain models (CTMC) of voltage gating of gap junction (GJ) channels composed of connexin protein. This task was accomplished by describing gating of GJs using the formalism of the stochastic automata networks (SANs), which allowed for very efficient building and storing of infinitesimal generator of the CTMC that allowed to produce matrices of the models containing a distinct block structure. All of that allowed us to develop efficient numerical methods for a steady-state solution of CTMC models. This allowed us to accelerate CPU time, which is necessary to solve CTMC models, ∼20 times. PMID:25705700

  18. Continuous-Time Semi-Markov Models in Health Economic Decision Making: An Illustrative Example in Heart Failure Disease Management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Qi; Buskens, Erik; Feenstra, Talitha; Jaarsma, Tiny; Hillege, Hans; Postmus, Douwe

    2016-01-01

    Continuous-time state transition models may end up having large unwieldy structures when trying to represent all relevant stages of clinical disease processes by means of a standard Markov model. In such situations, a more parsimonious, and therefore easier-to-grasp, model of a patient's disease progression can often be obtained by assuming that the future state transitions do not depend only on the present state (Markov assumption) but also on the past through time since entry in the present state. Despite that these so-called semi-Markov models are still relatively straightforward to specify and implement, they are not yet routinely applied in health economic evaluation to assess the cost-effectiveness of alternative interventions. To facilitate a better understanding of this type of model among applied health economic analysts, the first part of this article provides a detailed discussion of what the semi-Markov model entails and how such models can be specified in an intuitive way by adopting an approach called vertical modeling. In the second part of the article, we use this approach to construct a semi-Markov model for assessing the long-term cost-effectiveness of 3 disease management programs for heart failure. Compared with a standard Markov model with the same disease states, our proposed semi-Markov model fitted the observed data much better. When subsequently extrapolating beyond the clinical trial period, these relatively large differences in goodness-of-fit translated into almost a doubling in mean total cost and a 60-d decrease in mean survival time when using the Markov model instead of the semi-Markov model. For the disease process considered in our case study, the semi-Markov model thus provided a sensible balance between model parsimoniousness and computational complexity. © The Author(s) 2015.

  19. The Relationships between Individualism, Nationalism, Ethnocentrism, and Authoritarianism in Flanders: A Continuous Time-Structural Equation Modeling Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Angraini, Yenni; Toharudin, Toni; Folmer, Henk; Oud, Johan H L

    2014-01-01

    This article analyzes the relationships among nationalism (N), individualism (I), ethnocentrism (E), and authoritarianism (A) in continuous time (CT), estimated as a structural equation model. The analysis is based on the General Election Study for Flanders, Belgium, for 1991, 1995, and 1999. We find reciprocal effects between A and E and between E and I as well as a unidirectional effect from A on I. We furthermore find relatively small, but significant, effects from both I and E on N but no effect from A on N or from N on any of the other variables. Because of its central role in the N-I-E-A complex, mitigation of authoritarianism has the largest potential to reduce the spread of nationalism, ethnocentrism, and racism in Flanders.

  20. An Improved Continuous-Time Model Predictive Control of Permanent Magnetic Synchronous Motors for a Wide-Speed Range

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dandan Su

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes an improved continuous-time model predictive control (CTMPC of permanent magnetic synchronous motors (PMSMs for a wide-speed range, including the constant torque region and the flux-weakening (FW region. In the constant torque region, the mathematic models of PMSMs in dq-axes are decoupled without the limitation of DC-link voltage. However, in the FW region, the mathematic models of PMSMs in dq-axes are cross-coupled together with the limitation of DC-link voltage. A nonlinear PMSMs mathematic model in the FW region is presented based on the voltage angle. The solving of the nonlinear mathematic model of PMSMs in FW region will lead to heavy computation load for digital signal processing (DSP. To overcome such a problem, a linearization method of the voltage angle is also proposed to reduce the computation load. The selection of transiting points between the constant torque region and FW regions is researched to improve the performance of the driven system. Compared with the proportional integral (PI controller, the proposed CTMPC has obvious advantages in dealing with systems’ nonlinear constraints and improving system performance by restraining overshoot current under step torque changing. Both simulation and experimental results confirm the effectiveness of the proposed method in achieving good steady-state performance and smooth switching between the constant torque and FW regions.

  1. How to connect time-lapse recorded trajectories of motile microorganisms with dynamical models in continuous time

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Jonas Nyvold; Li, Liang; Gradinaru, Cristian

    2016-01-01

    We provide a tool for data-driven modeling of motility, data being time-lapse recorded trajectories. Several mathematical properties of a model to be found can be gleaned from appropriate model-independent experimental statistics, if one understands how such statistics are distorted by the finite...... of these effects that are valid for any reasonable model for persistent random motion. Our findings are illustrated with experimental data and Monte Carlo simulations....

  2. A Hybrid Secure Scheme for Wireless Sensor Networks against Timing Attacks Using Continuous-Time Markov Chain and Queueing Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meng, Tianhui; Li, Xiaofan; Zhang, Sha; Zhao, Yubin

    2016-09-28

    Wireless sensor networks (WSNs) have recently gained popularity for a wide spectrum of applications. Monitoring tasks can be performed in various environments. This may be beneficial in many scenarios, but it certainly exhibits new challenges in terms of security due to increased data transmission over the wireless channel with potentially unknown threats. Among possible security issues are timing attacks, which are not prevented by traditional cryptographic security. Moreover, the limited energy and memory resources prohibit the use of complex security mechanisms in such systems. Therefore, balancing between security and the associated energy consumption becomes a crucial challenge. This paper proposes a secure scheme for WSNs while maintaining the requirement of the security-performance tradeoff. In order to proceed to a quantitative treatment of this problem, a hybrid continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC) and queueing model are put forward, and the tradeoff analysis of the security and performance attributes is carried out. By extending and transforming this model, the mean time to security attributes failure is evaluated. Through tradeoff analysis, we show that our scheme can enhance the security of WSNs, and the optimal rekeying rate of the performance and security tradeoff can be obtained.

  3. Stochastic volatility of volatility in continuous time

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barndorff-Nielsen, Ole; Veraart, Almut

    This paper introduces the concept of stochastic volatility of volatility in continuous time and, hence, extends standard stochastic volatility (SV) models to allow for an additional source of randomness associated with greater variability in the data. We discuss how stochastic volatility...... of volatility can be defined both non-parametrically, where we link it to the quadratic variation of the stochastic variance process, and parametrically, where we propose two new SV models which allow for stochastic volatility of volatility. In addition, we show that volatility of volatility can be estimated...

  4. Modeling Continuous-Time Random Processes in Digital Computer Simulations of Physical Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    1986-08-27

    hf) + BD1QD1B31 + BD2QD2B62 + BD3QD3BZ3 + BD4QD4BZ4 (51) where ODk = E[NDk-_•k] for k = 1 to 4. Note that PD(ti+l) has four BDiQDiBZi terms, one from...3 , collecting terms, and rearrang- ing equation (95), results in (aUz 3 + a 2 z 2 + a3z + ag4)hBV(z)Xlz) , (96) z 4 - alhAz 3 - (1 + a2 hA)z 2 - a 3...approximate the Taylor series form of I(h,I)? To answer this question, expand equation (1ll) in a series form , collect terms and compare it to 1(hI) . EhA

  5. A METHODOLOGY FOR THE CHOICE OF THE BEST FITTING CONTINUOUS-TIME STOCHASTIC MODELS OF CRUDE OIL PRICE: THE CASE OF RUSSIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hamidreza Mostafaei

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In this study, it has been attempted to select the best continuous- time stochastic model, in order to describe and forecast the oil price of Russia, by information and statistics about oil price that has been available for oil price in the past. For this purpose, method of The Maximum Likelihood Estimation is implemented for estimation of the parameters of continuous-time stochastic processes. The result of unit root test with a structural break, reveals that time series of the crude oil price is a stationary series. The simulation of continuous-time stochastic processes and the mean square error between the simulated prices and the market ones shows that the Geometric Brownian Motion is the best model for the Russian crude oil price.

  6. A Model-free Approach to Fault Detection of Continuous-time Systems Based on Time Domain Data

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Ping Zhang; Steven X. Ding

    2007-01-01

    In this paper, a model-free approach is presented to design an observer-based fault detection system of linear continuoustime systems based on input and output data in the time domain. The core of the approach is to directly identify parameters of the observer-based residual generator based on a numerically reliable data equation obtained by filtering and sampling the input and output signals.

  7. Modelling the short term interest with stochastic differential equation in continuous time: linear versus non-linear mode

    OpenAIRE

    2014-01-01

    M.Com. (Financial Economics) Recently, there has been a growth in the bond market. This growth has brought with it an ever-increasing volume and range of interest rate depended derivative products known as interest rate derivatives. Amongst the variables used in pricing these derivative products is the short-term interest rate. A numbers of short-term interest rate models that are used to fit the short-term interest rate exist. Therefore, understanding the features characterised by various...

  8. Analysis of transtheoretical model of health behavioral changes in a nutrition intervention study--a continuous time Markov chain model with Bayesian approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Junsheng; Chan, Wenyaw; Tsai, Chu-Lin; Xiong, Momiao; Tilley, Barbara C

    2015-11-30

    Continuous time Markov chain (CTMC) models are often used to study the progression of chronic diseases in medical research but rarely applied to studies of the process of behavioral change. In studies of interventions to modify behaviors, a widely used psychosocial model is based on the transtheoretical model that often has more than three states (representing stages of change) and conceptually permits all possible instantaneous transitions. Very little attention is given to the study of the relationships between a CTMC model and associated covariates under the framework of transtheoretical model. We developed a Bayesian approach to evaluate the covariate effects on a CTMC model through a log-linear regression link. A simulation study of this approach showed that model parameters were accurately and precisely estimated. We analyzed an existing data set on stages of change in dietary intake from the Next Step Trial using the proposed method and the generalized multinomial logit model. We found that the generalized multinomial logit model was not suitable for these data because it ignores the unbalanced data structure and temporal correlation between successive measurements. Our analysis not only confirms that the nutrition intervention was effective but also provides information on how the intervention affected the transitions among the stages of change. We found that, compared with the control group, subjects in the intervention group, on average, spent substantively less time in the precontemplation stage and were more/less likely to move from an unhealthy/healthy state to a healthy/unhealthy state. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  9. Clinical Prediction Performance of Glaucoma Progression Using a 2-Dimensional Continuous-Time Hidden Markov Model with Structural and Functional Measurements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Youngseok; Ishikawa, Hiroshi; Wu, Mengfei; Liu, Yu-Ying; Lucy, Katie A; Lavinsky, Fabio; Liu, Mengling; Wollstein, Gadi; Schuman, Joel S

    2018-03-20

    Previously, we introduced a state-based 2-dimensional continuous-time hidden Markov model (2D CT HMM) to model the pattern of detected glaucoma changes using structural and functional information simultaneously. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the detected glaucoma change prediction performance of the model in a real clinical setting using a retrospective longitudinal dataset. Longitudinal, retrospective study. One hundred thirty-four eyes from 134 participants diagnosed with glaucoma or as glaucoma suspects (average follow-up, 4.4±1.2 years; average number of visits, 7.1±1.8). A 2D CT HMM model was trained using OCT (Cirrus HD-OCT; Zeiss, Dublin, CA) average circumpapillary retinal nerve fiber layer (cRNFL) thickness and visual field index (VFI) or mean deviation (MD; Humphrey Field Analyzer; Zeiss). The model was trained using a subset of the data (107 of 134 eyes [80%]) including all visits except for the last visit, which was used to test the prediction performance (training set). Additionally, the remaining 27 eyes were used for secondary performance testing as an independent group (validation set). The 2D CT HMM predicts 1 of 4 possible detected state changes based on 1 input state. Prediction accuracy was assessed as the percentage of correct prediction against the patient's actual recorded state. In addition, deviations of the predicted long-term detected change paths from the actual detected change paths were measured. Baseline mean ± standard deviation age was 61.9±11.4 years, VFI was 90.7±17.4, MD was -3.50±6.04 dB, and cRNFL thickness was 74.9±12.2 μm. The accuracy of detected glaucoma change prediction using the training set was comparable with the validation set (57.0% and 68.0%, respectively). Prediction deviation from the actual detected change path showed stability throughout patient follow-up. The 2D CT HMM demonstrated promising prediction performance in detecting glaucoma change performance in a simulated clinical setting

  10. Generating Li–Yorke chaos in a stable continuous-time T–S fuzzy model via time-delay feedback control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Qiu-Ye, Sun; Hua-Guang, Zhang; Yan, Zhao

    2010-01-01

    This paper investigates the chaotification problem of a stable continuous-time T–S fuzzy system. A simple nonlinear state time-delay feedback controller is designed by parallel distributed compensation technique. Then, the asymptotically approximate relationship between the controlled continuous-time T–S fuzzy system with time-delay and a discrete-time T–S fuzzy system is established. Based on the discrete-time T–S fuzzy system, it proves that the chaos in the discrete-time T–S fuzzy system satisfies the Li–Yorke definition by choosing appropriate controller parameters via the revised Marotto theorem. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed chaotic anticontrol method is verified by a practical example. (general)

  11. A continuous-time adaptive particle filter for estimations under measurement time uncertainties with an application to a plasma-leucine mixed effects model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krengel, Annette; Hauth, Jan; Taskinen, Marja-Riitta; Adiels, Martin; Jirstrand, Mats

    2013-01-19

    When mathematical modelling is applied to many different application areas, a common task is the estimation of states and parameters based on measurements. With this kind of inference making, uncertainties in the time when the measurements have been taken are often neglected, but especially in applications taken from the life sciences, this kind of errors can considerably influence the estimation results. As an example in the context of personalized medicine, the model-based assessment of the effectiveness of drugs is becoming to play an important role. Systems biology may help here by providing good pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) models. Inference on these systems based on data gained from clinical studies with several patient groups becomes a major challenge. Particle filters are a promising approach to tackle these difficulties but are by itself not ready to handle uncertainties in measurement times. In this article, we describe a variant of the standard particle filter (PF) algorithm which allows state and parameter estimation with the inclusion of measurement time uncertainties (MTU). The modified particle filter, which we call MTU-PF, also allows the application of an adaptive stepsize choice in the time-continuous case to avoid degeneracy problems. The modification is based on the model assumption of uncertain measurement times. While the assumption of randomness in the measurements themselves is common, the corresponding measurement times are generally taken as deterministic and exactly known. Especially in cases where the data are gained from measurements on blood or tissue samples, a relatively high uncertainty in the true measurement time seems to be a natural assumption. Our method is appropriate in cases where relatively few data are used from a relatively large number of groups or individuals, which introduce mixed effects in the model. This is a typical setting of clinical studies. We demonstrate the method on a small artificial example

  12. On-line scheme for parameter estimation of nonlinear lithium ion battery equivalent circuit models using the simplified refined instrumental variable method for a modified Wiener continuous-time model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Allafi, Walid; Uddin, Kotub; Zhang, Cheng; Mazuir Raja Ahsan Sha, Raja; Marco, James

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: •Off-line estimation approach for continuous-time domain for non-invertible function. •Model reformulated to multi-input-single-output; nonlinearity described by sigmoid. •Method directly estimates parameters of nonlinear ECM from the measured-data. •Iterative on-line technique leads to smoother convergence. •The model is validated off-line and on-line using NCA battery. -- Abstract: The accuracy of identifying the parameters of models describing lithium ion batteries (LIBs) in typical battery management system (BMS) applications is critical to the estimation of key states such as the state of charge (SoC) and state of health (SoH). In applications such as electric vehicles (EVs) where LIBs are subjected to highly demanding cycles of operation and varying environmental conditions leading to non-trivial interactions of ageing stress factors, this identification is more challenging. This paper proposes an algorithm that directly estimates the parameters of a nonlinear battery model from measured input and output data in the continuous time-domain. The simplified refined instrumental variable method is extended to estimate the parameters of a Wiener model where there is no requirement for the nonlinear function to be invertible. To account for nonlinear battery dynamics, in this paper, the typical linear equivalent circuit model (ECM) is enhanced by a block-oriented Wiener configuration where the nonlinear memoryless block following the typical ECM is defined to be a sigmoid static nonlinearity. The nonlinear Weiner model is reformulated in the form of a multi-input, single-output linear model. This linear form allows the parameters of the nonlinear model to be estimated using any linear estimator such as the well-established least squares (LS) algorithm. In this paper, the recursive least square (RLS) method is adopted for online parameter estimation. The approach was validated on experimental data measured from an 18650-type Graphite

  13. A Comparative Analysis of the Value of Information in a Continuous Time Market Model with Partial Information: The Cases of Log-Utility and CRRA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhaojun Yang

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available We study the question what value an agent in a generalized Black-Scholes model with partial information attributes to the complementary information. To do this, we study the utility maximization problems from terminal wealth for the two cases partial information and full information. We assume that the drift term of the risky asset is a dynamic process of general linear type and that the two levels of observation correspond to whether this drift term is observable or not. Applying methods from stochastic filtering theory we derive an analytical tractable formula for the value of information in the case of logarithmic utility. For the case of constant relative risk aversion (CRRA we derive a semianalytical formula, which uses as an input the numerical solution of a system of ODEs. For both cases we present a comparative analysis.

  14. Evaluation of Bayesian estimation of a hidden continuous-time Markov chain model with application to threshold violation in water-quality indicators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deviney, Frank A.; Rice, Karen; Brown, Donald E.

    2012-01-01

    Natural resource managers require information concerning  the frequency, duration, and long-term probability of occurrence of water-quality indicator (WQI) violations of defined thresholds. The timing of these threshold crossings often is hidden from the observer, who is restricted to relatively infrequent observations. Here, a model for the hidden process is linked with a model for the observations, and the parameters describing duration, return period, and long-term probability of occurrence are estimated using Bayesian methods. A simulation experiment is performed to evaluate the approach under scenarios based on the equivalent of a total monitoring period of 5-30 years and an observation frequency of 1-50 observations per year. Given constant threshold crossing rate, accuracy and precision of parameter estimates increased with longer total monitoring period and more-frequent observations. Given fixed monitoring period and observation frequency, accuracy and precision of parameter estimates increased with longer times between threshold crossings. For most cases where the long-term probability of being in violation is greater than 0.10, it was determined that at least 600 observations are needed to achieve precise estimates.  An application of the approach is presented using 22 years of quasi-weekly observations of acid-neutralizing capacity from Deep Run, a stream in Shenandoah National Park, Virginia. The time series also was sub-sampled to simulate monthly and semi-monthly sampling protocols. Estimates of the long-term probability of violation were unbiased despite sampling frequency; however, the expected duration and return period were over-estimated using the sub-sampled time series with respect to the full quasi-weekly time series.

  15. Continuous-time quantum algorithms for unstructured problems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hen, Itay

    2014-01-01

    We consider a family of unstructured optimization problems, for which we propose a method for constructing analogue, continuous-time (not necessarily adiabatic) quantum algorithms that are faster than their classical counterparts. In this family of problems, which we refer to as ‘scrambled input’ problems, one has to find a minimum-cost configuration of a given integer-valued n-bit black-box function whose input values have been scrambled in some unknown way. Special cases within this set of problems are Grover’s search problem of finding a marked item in an unstructured database, certain random energy models, and the functions of the Deutsch–Josza problem. We consider a couple of examples in detail. In the first, we provide an O(1) deterministic analogue quantum algorithm to solve the seminal problem of Deutsch and Josza, in which one has to determine whether an n-bit boolean function is constant (gives 0 on all inputs or 1 on all inputs) or balanced (returns 0 on half the input states and 1 on the other half). We also study one variant of the random energy model, and show that, as one might expect, its minimum energy configuration can be found quadratically faster with a quantum adiabatic algorithm than with classical algorithms. (paper)

  16. Parameter Estimation in Continuous Time Domain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriela M. ATANASIU

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper will aim to presents the applications of a continuous-time parameter estimation method for estimating structural parameters of a real bridge structure. For the purpose of illustrating this method two case studies of a bridge pile located in a highly seismic risk area are considered, for which the structural parameters for the mass, damping and stiffness are estimated. The estimation process is followed by the validation of the analytical results and comparison with them to the measurement data. Further benefits and applications for the continuous-time parameter estimation method in civil engineering are presented in the final part of this paper.

  17. Inverse Ising problem in continuous time: A latent variable approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donner, Christian; Opper, Manfred

    2017-12-01

    We consider the inverse Ising problem: the inference of network couplings from observed spin trajectories for a model with continuous time Glauber dynamics. By introducing two sets of auxiliary latent random variables we render the likelihood into a form which allows for simple iterative inference algorithms with analytical updates. The variables are (1) Poisson variables to linearize an exponential term which is typical for point process likelihoods and (2) Pólya-Gamma variables, which make the likelihood quadratic in the coupling parameters. Using the augmented likelihood, we derive an expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm to obtain the maximum likelihood estimate of network parameters. Using a third set of latent variables we extend the EM algorithm to sparse couplings via L1 regularization. Finally, we develop an efficient approximate Bayesian inference algorithm using a variational approach. We demonstrate the performance of our algorithms on data simulated from an Ising model. For data which are simulated from a more biologically plausible network with spiking neurons, we show that the Ising model captures well the low order statistics of the data and how the Ising couplings are related to the underlying synaptic structure of the simulated network.

  18. a Continuous-Time Positive Linear System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kyungsup Kim

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper discusses a computational method to construct positive realizations with sparse matrices for continuous-time positive linear systems with multiple complex poles. To construct a positive realization of a continuous-time system, we use a Markov sequence similar to the impulse response sequence that is used in the discrete-time case. The existence of the proposed positive realization can be analyzed with the concept of a polyhedral convex cone. We provide a constructive algorithm to compute positive realizations with sparse matrices of some positive systems under certain conditions. A sufficient condition for the existence of a positive realization, under which the proposed constructive algorithm works well, is analyzed.

  19. Pseudo-Hermitian continuous-time quantum walks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Salimi, S; Sorouri, A, E-mail: shsalimi@uok.ac.i, E-mail: a.sorouri@uok.ac.i [Department of Physics, University of Kurdistan, PO Box 66177-15175, Sanandaj (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

    2010-07-09

    In this paper we present a model exhibiting a new type of continuous-time quantum walk (as a quantum-mechanical transport process) on networks, which is described by a non-Hermitian Hamiltonian possessing a real spectrum. We call it pseudo-Hermitian continuous-time quantum walk. We introduce a method to obtain the probability distribution of walk on any vertex and then study a specific system. We observe that the probability distribution on certain vertices increases compared to that of the Hermitian case. This formalism makes the transport process faster and can be useful for search algorithms.

  20. Stability of continuous-time quantum filters with measurement imperfections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amini, H.; Pellegrini, C.; Rouchon, P.

    2014-07-01

    The fidelity between the state of a continuously observed quantum system and the state of its associated quantum filter, is shown to be always a submartingale. The observed system is assumed to be governed by a continuous-time Stochastic Master Equation (SME), driven simultaneously by Wiener and Poisson processes and that takes into account incompleteness and errors in measurements. This stability result is the continuous-time counterpart of a similar stability result already established for discrete-time quantum systems and where the measurement imperfections are modelled by a left stochastic matrix.

  1. Identification of continuous-time systems from samples of input ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Abstract. This paper presents an introductory survey of the methods that have been developed for identification of continuous-time systems from samples of input±output data. The two basic approaches may be described as (i) the indirect method, where first a discrete-time model is estimated from the sampled data and then ...

  2. Expectation propagation for continuous time stochastic processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cseke, Botond; Schnoerr, David; Sanguinetti, Guido; Opper, Manfred

    2016-01-01

    We consider the inverse problem of reconstructing the posterior measure over the trajectories of a diffusion process from discrete time observations and continuous time constraints. We cast the problem in a Bayesian framework and derive approximations to the posterior distributions of single time marginals using variational approximate inference, giving rise to an expectation propagation type algorithm. For non-linear diffusion processes, this is achieved by leveraging moment closure approximations. We then show how the approximation can be extended to a wide class of discrete-state Markov jump processes by making use of the chemical Langevin equation. Our empirical results show that the proposed method is computationally efficient and provides good approximations for these classes of inverse problems. (paper)

  3. Interaction-aided continuous time quantum search

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bae, Joonwoo; Kwon, Younghun; Baek, Inchan; Yoon, Dalsun

    2005-01-01

    The continuous quantum search algorithm (based on the Farhi-Gutmann Hamiltonian evolution) is known to be analogous to the Grover (or discrete time quantum) algorithm. Any errors introduced in Grover algorithm are fatal to its success. In the same way the Farhi-Gutmann Hamiltonian algorithm has a severe difficulty when the Hamiltonian is perturbed. In this letter we will show that the interaction term in quantum search Hamiltonian (actually which is in the generalized quantum search Hamiltonian) can save the perturbed Farhi-Gutmann Hamiltonian that should otherwise fail. We note that this fact is quite remarkable since it implies that introduction of interaction can be a way to correct some errors on the continuous time quantum search

  4. Inference for Continuous-Time Probabilistic Programming

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-12-01

    network of Ising model dynamics. The Ising model is a well-known interaction model with applications in many fields includ- ing statistical mechanics...well- known interaction model with applications in many fields including statistical mechanics, genetics, and neuroscience. This is a Markovian model...chains. The Annals of Mathematical Statistics , 37(6):1554–1563, 1966. ISSN 00034851. URL http://www.jstor.org/stable/2238772. Zachary C Lipton, David C

  5. Alternative model of random surfaces

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ambartzumian, R.V.; Sukiasian, G.S.; Savvidy, G.K.; Savvidy, K.G.

    1992-01-01

    We analyse models of triangulated random surfaces and demand that geometrically nearby configurations of these surfaces must have close actions. The inclusion of this principle drives us to suggest a new action, which is a modified Steiner functional. General arguments, based on the Minkowski inequality, shows that the maximal distribution to the partition function comes from surfaces close to the sphere. (orig.)

  6. Randomized Item Response Theory Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fox, Gerardus J.A.

    2005-01-01

    The randomized response (RR) technique is often used to obtain answers on sensitive questions. A new method is developed to measure latent variables using the RR technique because direct questioning leads to biased results. Within the RR technique is the probability of the true response modeled by

  7. On Probabilistic Automata in Continuous Time

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Eisentraut, Christian; Hermanns, Holger; Zhang, Lijun

    2010-01-01

    We develop a compositional behavioural model that integrates a variation of probabilistic automata into a conservative extension of interactive Markov chains. The model is rich enough to embody the semantics of generalised stochastic Petri nets. We define strong and weak bisimulations and discuss...

  8. Continuous time finite state mean field games

    KAUST Repository

    Gomes, Diogo A.; Mohr, Joana; Souza, Rafael Rigã o

    2013-01-01

    In this paper we consider symmetric games where a large number of players can be in any one of d states. We derive a limiting mean field model and characterize its main properties. This mean field limit is a system of coupled ordinary differential equations with initial-terminal data. For this mean field problem we prove a trend to equilibrium theorem, that is convergence, in an appropriate limit, to stationary solutions. Then we study an N+1-player problem, which the mean field model attempts to approximate. Our main result is the convergence as N→∞ of the mean field model and an estimate of the rate of convergence. We end the paper with some further examples for potential mean field games. © 2013 Springer Science+Business Media New York.

  9. Continuous time finite state mean field games

    KAUST Repository

    Gomes, Diogo A.

    2013-04-23

    In this paper we consider symmetric games where a large number of players can be in any one of d states. We derive a limiting mean field model and characterize its main properties. This mean field limit is a system of coupled ordinary differential equations with initial-terminal data. For this mean field problem we prove a trend to equilibrium theorem, that is convergence, in an appropriate limit, to stationary solutions. Then we study an N+1-player problem, which the mean field model attempts to approximate. Our main result is the convergence as N→∞ of the mean field model and an estimate of the rate of convergence. We end the paper with some further examples for potential mean field games. © 2013 Springer Science+Business Media New York.

  10. Continuous Time Finite State Mean Field Games

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gomes, Diogo A., E-mail: dgomes@math.ist.utl.pt [Instituto Superior Tecnico, Center for Mathematical Analysis, Geometry, and Dynamical Systems, Departamento de Matematica (Portugal); Mohr, Joana, E-mail: joana.mohr@ufrgs.br; Souza, Rafael Rigao, E-mail: rafars@mat.ufrgs.br [UFRGS, Instituto de Matematica (Brazil)

    2013-08-01

    In this paper we consider symmetric games where a large number of players can be in any one of d states. We derive a limiting mean field model and characterize its main properties. This mean field limit is a system of coupled ordinary differential equations with initial-terminal data. For this mean field problem we prove a trend to equilibrium theorem, that is convergence, in an appropriate limit, to stationary solutions. Then we study an N+1-player problem, which the mean field model attempts to approximate. Our main result is the convergence as N{yields}{infinity} of the mean field model and an estimate of the rate of convergence. We end the paper with some further examples for potential mean field games.

  11. Continuous Time Finite State Mean Field Games

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gomes, Diogo A.; Mohr, Joana; Souza, Rafael Rigão

    2013-01-01

    In this paper we consider symmetric games where a large number of players can be in any one of d states. We derive a limiting mean field model and characterize its main properties. This mean field limit is a system of coupled ordinary differential equations with initial-terminal data. For this mean field problem we prove a trend to equilibrium theorem, that is convergence, in an appropriate limit, to stationary solutions. Then we study an N+1-player problem, which the mean field model attempts to approximate. Our main result is the convergence as N→∞ of the mean field model and an estimate of the rate of convergence. We end the paper with some further examples for potential mean field games

  12. A continuous time Cournot duopoly with delays

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gori, Luca; Guerrini, Luca; Sodini, Mauro

    2015-01-01

    This paper extends the classical repeated duopoly model with quantity-setting firms of Bischi et al. (1998) by assuming that production of goods is subject to some gestation lags but exchanges take place continuously in the market. The model is expressed in the form of differential equations with discrete delays. By using some recent mathematical techniques and numerical experiments, results show some dynamic phenomena that cannot be observed when delays are absent. In addition, depending on the extent of time delays and inertia, synchronisation failure can arise even in the event of homogeneous firms.

  13. Recommender engine for continuous-time quantum Monte Carlo methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Li; Yang, Yi-feng; Wang, Lei

    2017-03-01

    Recommender systems play an essential role in the modern business world. They recommend favorable items such as books, movies, and search queries to users based on their past preferences. Applying similar ideas and techniques to Monte Carlo simulations of physical systems boosts their efficiency without sacrificing accuracy. Exploiting the quantum to classical mapping inherent in the continuous-time quantum Monte Carlo methods, we construct a classical molecular gas model to reproduce the quantum distributions. We then utilize powerful molecular simulation techniques to propose efficient quantum Monte Carlo updates. The recommender engine approach provides a general way to speed up the quantum impurity solvers.

  14. Price discovery in a continuous-time setting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dias, Gustavo Fruet; Fernandes, Marcelo; Scherrer, Cristina

    We formulate a continuous-time price discovery model in which the price discovery measure varies (stochastically) at daily frequency. We estimate daily measures of price discovery using a kernel-based OLS estimator instead of running separate daily VECM regressions as standard in the literature. We...... show that our estimator is not only consistent, but also outperforms the standard daily VECM in finite samples. We illustrate our theoretical findings by studying the price discovery process of 10 actively traded stocks in the U.S. from 2007 to 2013....

  15. Investigating continuous time open pit dynamics

    OpenAIRE

    Askari-Nasab, H.; Frimpong, S.; Szymanski, J.

    2008-01-01

    Current mine production planning, scheduling, and allocation of resources are based on mathematical programming models. In practice, the optimized solution cannot be attained without examining all possible combinations and permutations of the extraction sequence. Operations research methods have limited applications in large-scale surface mining operations because the number of variables becomes too large. The primary objective of this study is to develop and implement a hybrid simulation fra...

  16. Random Intercept and Random Slope 2-Level Multilevel Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rehan Ahmad Khan

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Random intercept model and random intercept & random slope model carrying two-levels of hierarchy in the population are presented and compared with the traditional regression approach. The impact of students’ satisfaction on their grade point average (GPA was explored with and without controlling teachers influence. The variation at level-1 can be controlled by introducing the higher levels of hierarchy in the model. The fanny movement of the fitted lines proves variation of student grades around teachers.

  17. Accurate Lithium-ion battery parameter estimation with continuous-time system identification methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xia, Bing; Zhao, Xin; Callafon, Raymond de; Garnier, Hugues; Nguyen, Truong; Mi, Chris

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • Continuous-time system identification is applied in Lithium-ion battery modeling. • Continuous-time and discrete-time identification methods are compared in detail. • The instrumental variable method is employed to further improve the estimation. • Simulations and experiments validate the advantages of continuous-time methods. - Abstract: The modeling of Lithium-ion batteries usually utilizes discrete-time system identification methods to estimate parameters of discrete models. However, in real applications, there is a fundamental limitation of the discrete-time methods in dealing with sensitivity when the system is stiff and the storage resolutions are limited. To overcome this problem, this paper adopts direct continuous-time system identification methods to estimate the parameters of equivalent circuit models for Lithium-ion batteries. Compared with discrete-time system identification methods, the continuous-time system identification methods provide more accurate estimates to both fast and slow dynamics in battery systems and are less sensitive to disturbances. A case of a 2"n"d-order equivalent circuit model is studied which shows that the continuous-time estimates are more robust to high sampling rates, measurement noises and rounding errors. In addition, the estimation by the conventional continuous-time least squares method is further improved in the case of noisy output measurement by introducing the instrumental variable method. Simulation and experiment results validate the analysis and demonstrate the advantages of the continuous-time system identification methods in battery applications.

  18. Smooth random change point models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van den Hout, Ardo; Muniz-Terrera, Graciela; Matthews, Fiona E

    2011-03-15

    Change point models are used to describe processes over time that show a change in direction. An example of such a process is cognitive ability, where a decline a few years before death is sometimes observed. A broken-stick model consists of two linear parts and a breakpoint where the two lines intersect. Alternatively, models can be formulated that imply a smooth change between the two linear parts. Change point models can be extended by adding random effects to account for variability between subjects. A new smooth change point model is introduced and examples are presented that show how change point models can be estimated using functions in R for mixed-effects models. The Bayesian inference using WinBUGS is also discussed. The methods are illustrated using data from a population-based longitudinal study of ageing, the Cambridge City over 75 Cohort Study. The aim is to identify how many years before death individuals experience a change in the rate of decline of their cognitive ability. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  19. Continuous-time quantum Monte Carlo impurity solvers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gull, Emanuel; Werner, Philipp; Fuchs, Sebastian; Surer, Brigitte; Pruschke, Thomas; Troyer, Matthias

    2011-04-01

    Continuous-time quantum Monte Carlo impurity solvers are algorithms that sample the partition function of an impurity model using diagrammatic Monte Carlo techniques. The present paper describes codes that implement the interaction expansion algorithm originally developed by Rubtsov, Savkin, and Lichtenstein, as well as the hybridization expansion method developed by Werner, Millis, Troyer, et al. These impurity solvers are part of the ALPS-DMFT application package and are accompanied by an implementation of dynamical mean-field self-consistency equations for (single orbital single site) dynamical mean-field problems with arbitrary densities of states. Program summaryProgram title: dmft Catalogue identifier: AEIL_v1_0 Program summary URL:http://cpc.cs.qub.ac.uk/summaries/AEIL_v1_0.html Program obtainable from: CPC Program Library, Queen's University, Belfast, N. Ireland Licensing provisions: ALPS LIBRARY LICENSE version 1.1 No. of lines in distributed program, including test data, etc.: 899 806 No. of bytes in distributed program, including test data, etc.: 32 153 916 Distribution format: tar.gz Programming language: C++ Operating system: The ALPS libraries have been tested on the following platforms and compilers: Linux with GNU Compiler Collection (g++ version 3.1 and higher), and Intel C++ Compiler (icc version 7.0 and higher) MacOS X with GNU Compiler (g++ Apple-version 3.1, 3.3 and 4.0) IBM AIX with Visual Age C++ (xlC version 6.0) and GNU (g++ version 3.1 and higher) compilers Compaq Tru64 UNIX with Compq C++ Compiler (cxx) SGI IRIX with MIPSpro C++ Compiler (CC) HP-UX with HP C++ Compiler (aCC) Windows with Cygwin or coLinux platforms and GNU Compiler Collection (g++ version 3.1 and higher) RAM: 10 MB-1 GB Classification: 7.3 External routines: ALPS [1], BLAS/LAPACK, HDF5 Nature of problem: (See [2].) Quantum impurity models describe an atom or molecule embedded in a host material with which it can exchange electrons. They are basic to nanoscience as

  20. Continuous-time quantum walks on star graphs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salimi, S.

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, we investigate continuous-time quantum walk on star graphs. It is shown that quantum central limit theorem for a continuous-time quantum walk on star graphs for N-fold star power graph, which are invariant under the quantum component of adjacency matrix, converges to continuous-time quantum walk on K 2 graphs (complete graph with two vertices) and the probability of observing walk tends to the uniform distribution.

  1. Pedestrian Walking Behavior Revealed through a Random Walk Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hui Xiong

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper applies method of continuous-time random walks for pedestrian flow simulation. In the model, pedestrians can walk forward or backward and turn left or right if there is no block. Velocities of pedestrian flow moving forward or diffusing are dominated by coefficients. The waiting time preceding each jump is assumed to follow an exponential distribution. To solve the model, a second-order two-dimensional partial differential equation, a high-order compact scheme with the alternating direction implicit method, is employed. In the numerical experiments, the walking domain of the first one is two-dimensional with two entrances and one exit, and that of the second one is two-dimensional with one entrance and one exit. The flows in both scenarios are one way. Numerical results show that the model can be used for pedestrian flow simulation.

  2. Chaos and unpredictability in evolution of cooperation in continuous time

    Science.gov (United States)

    You, Taekho; Kwon, Minji; Jo, Hang-Hyun; Jung, Woo-Sung; Baek, Seung Ki

    2017-12-01

    Cooperators benefit others with paying costs. Evolution of cooperation crucially depends on the cost-benefit ratio of cooperation, denoted as c . In this work, we investigate the infinitely repeated prisoner's dilemma for various values of c with four of the representative memory-one strategies, i.e., unconditional cooperation, unconditional defection, tit-for-tat, and win-stay-lose-shift. We consider replicator dynamics which deterministically describes how the fraction of each strategy evolves over time in an infinite-sized well-mixed population in the presence of implementation error and mutation among the four strategies. Our finding is that this three-dimensional continuous-time dynamics exhibits chaos through a bifurcation sequence similar to that of a logistic map as c varies. If mutation occurs with rate μ ≪1 , the position of the bifurcation sequence on the c axis is numerically found to scale as μ0.1, and such sensitivity to μ suggests that mutation may have nonperturbative effects on evolutionary paths. It demonstrates how the microscopic randomness of the mutation process can be amplified to macroscopic unpredictability by evolutionary dynamics.

  3. Generalization of Random Intercept Multilevel Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rehan Ahmad Khan

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available The concept of random intercept models in a multilevel model developed by Goldstein (1986 has been extended for k-levels. The random variation in intercepts at individual level is marginally split into components by incorporating higher levels of hierarchy in the single level model. So, one can control the random variation in intercepts by incorporating the higher levels in the model.

  4. Superior memory efficiency of quantum devices for the simulation of continuous-time stochastic processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elliott, Thomas J.; Gu, Mile

    2018-03-01

    Continuous-time stochastic processes pervade everyday experience, and the simulation of models of these processes is of great utility. Classical models of systems operating in continuous-time must typically track an unbounded amount of information about past behaviour, even for relatively simple models, enforcing limits on precision due to the finite memory of the machine. However, quantum machines can require less information about the past than even their optimal classical counterparts to simulate the future of discrete-time processes, and we demonstrate that this advantage extends to the continuous-time regime. Moreover, we show that this reduction in the memory requirement can be unboundedly large, allowing for arbitrary precision even with a finite quantum memory. We provide a systematic method for finding superior quantum constructions, and a protocol for analogue simulation of continuous-time renewal processes with a quantum machine.

  5. Continuous-time Markov decision processes theory and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Guo, Xianping

    2009-01-01

    This volume provides the first book entirely devoted to recent developments on the theory and applications of continuous-time Markov decision processes (MDPs). The MDPs presented here include most of the cases that arise in applications.

  6. Infinite Random Graphs as Statistical Mechanical Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Durhuus, Bergfinnur Jøgvan; Napolitano, George Maria

    2011-01-01

    We discuss two examples of infinite random graphs obtained as limits of finite statistical mechanical systems: a model of two-dimensional dis-cretized quantum gravity defined in terms of causal triangulated surfaces, and the Ising model on generic random trees. For the former model we describe a ...

  7. Dynamics of continuous-time bidirectional associative memory neural networks with impulses and their discrete counterparts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huo Haifeng; Li Wantong

    2009-01-01

    This paper is concerned with the global stability characteristics of a system of equations modelling the dynamics of continuous-time bidirectional associative memory neural networks with impulses. Sufficient conditions which guarantee the existence of a unique equilibrium and its exponential stability of the networks are obtained. For the goal of computation, discrete-time analogues of the corresponding continuous-time bidirectional associative memory neural networks with impulses are also formulated and studied. Our results show that the above continuous-time and discrete-time systems with impulses preserve the dynamics of the networks without impulses when we make some modifications and impose some additional conditions on the systems, the convergence characteristics dynamics of the networks are preserved by both continuous-time and discrete-time systems with some restriction imposed on the impulse effect.

  8. Exploratory Study for Continuous-time Parameter Estimation of Ankle Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kukreja, Sunil L.; Boyle, Richard D.

    2014-01-01

    Recently, a parallel pathway model to describe ankle dynamics was proposed. This model provides a relationship between ankle angle and net ankle torque as the sum of a linear and nonlinear contribution. A technique to identify parameters of this model in discrete-time has been developed. However, these parameters are a nonlinear combination of the continuous-time physiology, making insight into the underlying physiology impossible. The stable and accurate estimation of continuous-time parameters is critical for accurate disease modeling, clinical diagnosis, robotic control strategies, development of optimal exercise protocols for longterm space exploration, sports medicine, etc. This paper explores the development of a system identification technique to estimate the continuous-time parameters of ankle dynamics. The effectiveness of this approach is assessed via simulation of a continuous-time model of ankle dynamics with typical parameters found in clinical studies. The results show that although this technique improves estimates, it does not provide robust estimates of continuous-time parameters of ankle dynamics. Due to this we conclude that alternative modeling strategies and more advanced estimation techniques be considered for future work.

  9. A continuous time formulation of the Regge calculus

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brewin, Leo

    1988-01-01

    A complete continuous time formulation of the Regge calculus is presented by developing the associated continuous time Regge action. It is shown that the time constraint is, by way of the Bianchi identities conserved by the evolution equations. This analysis leads to an explicit first integral for each of the evolution equations. The dynamical equations of the theory are therefore reduced to a set of first-order differential equations. In this formalism the time constraints reduce to a simple sum of the integration constants. This result is unique to the Regge calculus-there does not appear to be a complete set of first integrals available for the vacuum Einstein equations. (author)

  10. STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF NOTATIONAL AFL DATA USING CONTINUOUS TIME MARKOV CHAINS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Denny Meyer

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available Animal biologists commonly use continuous time Markov chain models to describe patterns of animal behaviour. In this paper we consider the use of these models for describing AFL football. In particular we test the assumptions for continuous time Markov chain models (CTMCs, with time, distance and speed values associated with each transition. Using a simple event categorisation it is found that a semi-Markov chain model is appropriate for this data. This validates the use of Markov Chains for future studies in which the outcomes of AFL matches are simulated

  11. Incomplete Continuous-time Securities Markets with Stochastic Income Volatility

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Peter Ove; Larsen, Kasper

    2014-01-01

    We derive closed-form solutions for the equilibrium interest rate and market price of risk processes in an incomplete continuous-time market with uncertainty generated by Brownian motions. The economy has a finite number of heterogeneous exponential utility investors, who receive partially...

  12. Incomplete Continuous-Time Securities Markets with Stochastic Income Volatility

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Peter Ove; Larsen, Kasper

    In an incomplete continuous-time securities market governed by Brownian motions, we derive closed-form solutions for the equilibrium risk-free rate and equity premium processes. The economy has a finite number of heterogeneous exponential utility investors, who receive partially unspanned income ...

  13. The deviation matrix of a continuous-time Markov chain

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Coolen-Schrijner, P.; van Doorn, E.A.

    2001-01-01

    The deviation matrix of an ergodic, continuous-time Markov chain with transition probability matrix $P(.)$ and ergodic matrix $\\Pi$ is the matrix $D \\equiv \\int_0^{\\infty} (P(t)-\\Pi)dt$. We give conditions for $D$ to exist and discuss properties and a representation of $D$. The deviation matrix of a

  14. The deviation matrix of a continuous-time Markov chain

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Coolen-Schrijner, Pauline; van Doorn, Erik A.

    2002-01-01

    he deviation matrix of an ergodic, continuous-time Markov chain with transition probability matrix $P(.)$ and ergodic matrix $\\Pi$ is the matrix $D \\equiv \\int_0^{\\infty} (P(t)-\\Pi)dt$. We give conditions for $D$ to exist and discuss properties and a representation of $D$. The deviation matrix of a

  15. Noise Simulation of Continuous-Time ΣΔ Modulators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arias, J.; Quintanilla, L.; Bisbal, D.; San Pablo, J.; Enriquez, L.; Vicente, J.; Barbolla, J.

    2005-01-01

    In this work, an approach for the simulation of the effect of noise sources in the performance of continuous-time ΔΣ modulators is presented. Electrical noise including thermal noise, 1/f noise and clock jitter are included in a simulation program and their impact on the system performance is analyzed

  16. A mean-variance frontier in discrete and continuous time

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bekker, Paul A.

    2004-01-01

    The paper presents a mean-variance frontier based on dynamic frictionless investment strategies in continuous time. The result applies to a finite number of risky assets whose price process is given by multivariate geometric Brownian motion with deterministically varying coefficients. The derivation

  17. Random matrix model for disordered conductors

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    In the interpretation of transport properties of mesoscopic systems, the multichannel ... One defines the random matrix model with N eigenvalues 0. λТ ..... With heuristic arguments, using the ideas pertaining to Dyson Coulomb gas analogy,.

  18. The random walk model of intrafraction movement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ballhausen, H; Reiner, M; Kantz, S; Belka, C; Söhn, M

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to understand intrafraction movement as a stochastic process driven by random external forces. The hypothetically proposed three-dimensional random walk model has significant impact on optimal PTV margins and offers a quantitatively correct explanation of experimental findings. Properties of the random walk are calculated from first principles, in particular fraction-average population density distributions for displacements along the principal axes. When substituted into the established optimal margin recipes these fraction-average distributions yield safety margins about 30% smaller as compared to the suggested values from end-of-fraction Gaussian fits. Stylized facts of a random walk are identified in clinical data, such as the increase of the standard deviation of displacements with the square root of time. Least squares errors in the comparison to experimental results are reduced by about 50% when accounting for non-Gaussian corrections from the random walk model. (paper)

  19. The random walk model of intrafraction movement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ballhausen, H; Reiner, M; Kantz, S; Belka, C; Söhn, M

    2013-04-07

    The purpose of this paper is to understand intrafraction movement as a stochastic process driven by random external forces. The hypothetically proposed three-dimensional random walk model has significant impact on optimal PTV margins and offers a quantitatively correct explanation of experimental findings. Properties of the random walk are calculated from first principles, in particular fraction-average population density distributions for displacements along the principal axes. When substituted into the established optimal margin recipes these fraction-average distributions yield safety margins about 30% smaller as compared to the suggested values from end-of-fraction gaussian fits. Stylized facts of a random walk are identified in clinical data, such as the increase of the standard deviation of displacements with the square root of time. Least squares errors in the comparison to experimental results are reduced by about 50% when accounting for non-gaussian corrections from the random walk model.

  20. Entropy Characterization of Random Network Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pedro J. Zufiria

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper elaborates on the Random Network Model (RNM as a mathematical framework for modelling and analyzing the generation of complex networks. Such framework allows the analysis of the relationship between several network characterizing features (link density, clustering coefficient, degree distribution, connectivity, etc. and entropy-based complexity measures, providing new insight on the generation and characterization of random networks. Some theoretical and computational results illustrate the utility of the proposed framework.

  1. A Generalized Random Regret Minimization Model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chorus, C.G.

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents, discusses and tests a generalized Random Regret Minimization (G-RRM) model. The G-RRM model is created by replacing a fixed constant in the attribute-specific regret functions of the RRM model, by a regret-weight variable. Depending on the value of the regret-weights, the G-RRM

  2. Computer simulations of the random barrier model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schrøder, Thomas; Dyre, Jeppe

    2002-01-01

    A brief review of experimental facts regarding ac electronic and ionic conduction in disordered solids is given followed by a discussion of what is perhaps the simplest realistic model, the random barrier model (symmetric hopping model). Results from large scale computer simulations are presented...

  3. A mean-variance frontier in discrete and continuous time

    OpenAIRE

    Bekker, Paul A.

    2004-01-01

    The paper presents a mean-variance frontier based on dynamic frictionless investment strategies in continuous time. The result applies to a finite number of risky assets whose price process is given by multivariate geometric Brownian motion with deterministically varying coefficients. The derivation is based on the solution for the frontier in discrete time. Using the same multiperiod framework as Li and Ng (2000), I provide an alternative derivation and an alternative formulation of the solu...

  4. Continuous Time Portfolio Selection under Conditional Capital at Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gordana Dmitrasinovic-Vidovic

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Portfolio optimization with respect to different risk measures is of interest to both practitioners and academics. For there to be a well-defined optimal portfolio, it is important that the risk measure be coherent and quasiconvex with respect to the proportion invested in risky assets. In this paper we investigate one such measure—conditional capital at risk—and find the optimal strategies under this measure, in the Black-Scholes continuous time setting, with time dependent coefficients.

  5. Continuous-Time Symmetric Hopfield Nets are Computationally Universal

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Šíma, Jiří; Orponen, P.

    2003-01-01

    Roč. 15, č. 3 (2003), s. 693-733 ISSN 0899-7667 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR IAB2030007; GA ČR GA201/02/1456 Institutional research plan: AV0Z1030915 Keywords : continuous-time Hopfield network * Liapunov function * analog computation * computational power * Turing universality Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 2.747, year: 2003

  6. Parallel algorithms for simulating continuous time Markov chains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicol, David M.; Heidelberger, Philip

    1992-01-01

    We have previously shown that the mathematical technique of uniformization can serve as the basis of synchronization for the parallel simulation of continuous-time Markov chains. This paper reviews the basic method and compares five different methods based on uniformization, evaluating their strengths and weaknesses as a function of problem characteristics. The methods vary in their use of optimism, logical aggregation, communication management, and adaptivity. Performance evaluation is conducted on the Intel Touchstone Delta multiprocessor, using up to 256 processors.

  7. RMBNToolbox: random models for biochemical networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Niemi Jari

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background There is an increasing interest to model biochemical and cell biological networks, as well as to the computational analysis of these models. The development of analysis methodologies and related software is rapid in the field. However, the number of available models is still relatively small and the model sizes remain limited. The lack of kinetic information is usually the limiting factor for the construction of detailed simulation models. Results We present a computational toolbox for generating random biochemical network models which mimic real biochemical networks. The toolbox is called Random Models for Biochemical Networks. The toolbox works in the Matlab environment, and it makes it possible to generate various network structures, stoichiometries, kinetic laws for reactions, and parameters therein. The generation can be based on statistical rules and distributions, and more detailed information of real biochemical networks can be used in situations where it is known. The toolbox can be easily extended. The resulting network models can be exported in the format of Systems Biology Markup Language. Conclusion While more information is accumulating on biochemical networks, random networks can be used as an intermediate step towards their better understanding. Random networks make it possible to study the effects of various network characteristics to the overall behavior of the network. Moreover, the construction of artificial network models provides the ground truth data needed in the validation of various computational methods in the fields of parameter estimation and data analysis.

  8. Lyapunov stability robust analysis and robustness design for linear continuous-time systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Luo, J.S.; Johnson, A.; Bosch, van den P.P.J.

    1995-01-01

    The linear continuous-time systems to be discussed are described by state space models with structured time-varying uncertainties. First, the explicit maximal perturbation bound for maintaining quadratic Lyapunov stability of the closed-loop systems is presented. Then, a robust design method is

  9. Continuous-time quantum walks on multilayer dendrimer networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galiceanu, Mircea; Strunz, Walter T.

    2016-08-01

    We consider continuous-time quantum walks (CTQWs) on multilayer dendrimer networks (MDs) and their application to quantum transport. A detailed study of properties of CTQWs is presented and transport efficiency is determined in terms of the exact and average return probabilities. The latter depends only on the eigenvalues of the connectivity matrix, which even for very large structures allows a complete analytical solution for this particular choice of network. In the case of MDs we observe an interplay between strong localization effects, due to the dendrimer topology, and good efficiency from the linear segments. We show that quantum transport is enhanced by interconnecting more layers of dendrimers.

  10. Discrete and continuous time dynamic mean-variance analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Reiss, Ariane

    1999-01-01

    Contrary to static mean-variance analysis, very few papers have dealt with dynamic mean-variance analysis. Here, the mean-variance efficient self-financing portfolio strategy is derived for n risky assets in discrete and continuous time. In the discrete setting, the resulting portfolio is mean-variance efficient in a dynamic sense. It is shown that the optimal strategy for n risky assets may be dominated if the expected terminal wealth is constrained to exactly attain a certain goal instead o...

  11. Discrete time and continuous time dynamic mean-variance analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Reiss, Ariane

    1999-01-01

    Contrary to static mean-variance analysis, very few papers have dealt with dynamic mean-variance analysis. Here, the mean-variance efficient self-financing portfolio strategy is derived for n risky assets in discrete and continuous time. In the discrete setting, the resulting portfolio is mean-variance efficient in a dynamic sense. It is shown that the optimal strategy for n risky assets may be dominated if the expected terminal wealth is constrained to exactly attain a certain goal instead o...

  12. A Structural Modeling Approach to a Multilevel Random Coefficients Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rovine, Michael J.; Molenaar, Peter C. M.

    2000-01-01

    Presents a method for estimating the random coefficients model using covariance structure modeling and allowing one to estimate both fixed and random effects. The method is applied to real and simulated data, including marriage data from J. Belsky and M. Rovine (1990). (SLD)

  13. Random effect selection in generalised linear models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Denwood, Matt; Houe, Hans; Forkman, Björn

    We analysed abattoir recordings of meat inspection codes with possible relevance to onfarm animal welfare in cattle. Random effects logistic regression models were used to describe individual-level data obtained from 461,406 cattle slaughtered in Denmark. Our results demonstrate that the largest...

  14. Nonequilibrium thermodynamic potentials for continuous-time Markov chains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verley, Gatien

    2016-01-01

    We connect the rare fluctuations of an equilibrium (EQ) process and the typical fluctuations of a nonequilibrium (NE) stationary process. In the framework of large deviation theory, this observation allows us to introduce NE thermodynamic potentials. For continuous-time Markov chains, we identify the relevant pairs of conjugated variables and propose two NE ensembles: one with fixed dynamics and fluctuating time-averaged variables, and another with fixed time-averaged variables, but a fluctuating dynamics. Accordingly, we show that NE processes are equivalent to conditioned EQ processes ensuring that NE potentials are Legendre dual. We find a variational principle satisfied by the NE potentials that reach their maximum in the NE stationary state and whose first derivatives produce the NE equations of state and second derivatives produce the NE Maxwell relations generalizing the Onsager reciprocity relations.

  15. Language Emptiness of Continuous-Time Parametric Timed Automata

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Benes, Nikola; Bezdek, Peter; Larsen, Kim Guldstrand

    2015-01-01

    Parametric timed automata extend the standard timed automata with the possibility to use parameters in the clock guards. In general, if the parameters are real-valued, the problem of language emptiness of such automata is undecidable even for various restricted subclasses. We thus focus on the case...... where parameters are assumed to be integer-valued, while the time still remains continuous. On the one hand, we show that the problem remains undecidable for parametric timed automata with three clocks and one parameter. On the other hand, for the case with arbitrary many clocks where only one......-time semantics only. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first positive result in the case of continuous-time and unbounded integer parameters, except for the rather simple case of single-clock automata....

  16. Stochastic Games for Continuous-Time Jump Processes Under Finite-Horizon Payoff Criterion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wei, Qingda, E-mail: weiqd@hqu.edu.cn [Huaqiao University, School of Economics and Finance (China); Chen, Xian, E-mail: chenxian@amss.ac.cn [Peking University, School of Mathematical Sciences (China)

    2016-10-15

    In this paper we study two-person nonzero-sum games for continuous-time jump processes with the randomized history-dependent strategies under the finite-horizon payoff criterion. The state space is countable, and the transition rates and payoff functions are allowed to be unbounded from above and from below. Under the suitable conditions, we introduce a new topology for the set of all randomized Markov multi-strategies and establish its compactness and metrizability. Then by constructing the approximating sequences of the transition rates and payoff functions, we show that the optimal value function for each player is a unique solution to the corresponding optimality equation and obtain the existence of a randomized Markov Nash equilibrium. Furthermore, we illustrate the applications of our main results with a controlled birth and death system.

  17. Stochastic Games for Continuous-Time Jump Processes Under Finite-Horizon Payoff Criterion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wei, Qingda; Chen, Xian

    2016-01-01

    In this paper we study two-person nonzero-sum games for continuous-time jump processes with the randomized history-dependent strategies under the finite-horizon payoff criterion. The state space is countable, and the transition rates and payoff functions are allowed to be unbounded from above and from below. Under the suitable conditions, we introduce a new topology for the set of all randomized Markov multi-strategies and establish its compactness and metrizability. Then by constructing the approximating sequences of the transition rates and payoff functions, we show that the optimal value function for each player is a unique solution to the corresponding optimality equation and obtain the existence of a randomized Markov Nash equilibrium. Furthermore, we illustrate the applications of our main results with a controlled birth and death system.

  18. A random walk model to evaluate autism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moura, T. R. S.; Fulco, U. L.; Albuquerque, E. L.

    2018-02-01

    A common test administered during neurological examination in children is the analysis of their social communication and interaction across multiple contexts, including repetitive patterns of behavior. Poor performance may be associated with neurological conditions characterized by impairments in executive function, such as the so-called pervasive developmental disorders (PDDs), a particular condition of the autism spectrum disorders (ASDs). Inspired in these diagnosis tools, mainly those related to repetitive movements and behaviors, we studied here how the diffusion regimes of two discrete-time random walkers, mimicking the lack of social interaction and restricted interests developed for children with PDDs, are affected. Our model, which is based on the so-called elephant random walk (ERW) approach, consider that one of the random walker can learn and imitate the microscopic behavior of the other with probability f (1 - f otherwise). The diffusion regimes, measured by the Hurst exponent (H), is then obtained, whose changes may indicate a different degree of autism.

  19. Random matrix models for phase diagrams

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vanderheyden, B; Jackson, A D

    2011-01-01

    We describe a random matrix approach that can provide generic and readily soluble mean-field descriptions of the phase diagram for a variety of systems ranging from quantum chromodynamics to high-T c materials. Instead of working from specific models, phase diagrams are constructed by averaging over the ensemble of theories that possesses the relevant symmetries of the problem. Although approximate in nature, this approach has a number of advantages. First, it can be useful in distinguishing generic features from model-dependent details. Second, it can help in understanding the 'minimal' number of symmetry constraints required to reproduce specific phase structures. Third, the robustness of predictions can be checked with respect to variations in the detailed description of the interactions. Finally, near critical points, random matrix models bear strong similarities to Ginsburg-Landau theories with the advantage of additional constraints inherited from the symmetries of the underlying interaction. These constraints can be helpful in ruling out certain topologies in the phase diagram. In this Key Issues Review, we illustrate the basic structure of random matrix models, discuss their strengths and weaknesses, and consider the kinds of system to which they can be applied.

  20. Global dissipativity of continuous-time recurrent neural networks with time delay

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liao Xiaoxin; Wang Jun

    2003-01-01

    This paper addresses the global dissipativity of a general class of continuous-time recurrent neural networks. First, the concepts of global dissipation and global exponential dissipation are defined and elaborated. Next, the sets of global dissipativity and global exponentially dissipativity are characterized using the parameters of recurrent neural network models. In particular, it is shown that the Hopfield network and cellular neural networks with or without time delays are dissipative systems

  1. Numerical detection of unstable periodic orbits in continuous-time dynamical systems with chaotic behaviors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Saiki

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available An infinite number of unstable periodic orbits (UPOs are embedded in a chaotic system which models some complex phenomenon. Several algorithms which extract UPOs numerically from continuous-time chaotic systems have been proposed. In this article the damped Newton-Raphson-Mees algorithm is reviewed, and some important techniques and remarks concerning the practical numerical computations are exemplified by employing the Lorenz system.

  2. Distributed Optimization Design of Continuous-Time Multiagent Systems With Unknown-Frequency Disturbances.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xinghu; Hong, Yiguang; Yi, Peng; Ji, Haibo; Kang, Yu

    2017-05-24

    In this paper, a distributed optimization problem is studied for continuous-time multiagent systems with unknown-frequency disturbances. A distributed gradient-based control is proposed for the agents to achieve the optimal consensus with estimating unknown frequencies and rejecting the bounded disturbance in the semi-global sense. Based on convex optimization analysis and adaptive internal model approach, the exact optimization solution can be obtained for the multiagent system disturbed by exogenous disturbances with uncertain parameters.

  3. Continuous-Time Mean-Variance Portfolio Selection under the CEV Process

    OpenAIRE

    Ma, Hui-qiang

    2014-01-01

    We consider a continuous-time mean-variance portfolio selection model when stock price follows the constant elasticity of variance (CEV) process. The aim of this paper is to derive an optimal portfolio strategy and the efficient frontier. The mean-variance portfolio selection problem is formulated as a linearly constrained convex program problem. By employing the Lagrange multiplier method and stochastic optimal control theory, we obtain the optimal portfolio strategy and mean-variance effici...

  4. Quantum trajectories and measurements in continuous time. The diffusive case

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barchielli, Alberto; Gregoratti, Matteo

    2009-01-01

    continuous time for quantum systems. The two-level atom is again used to introduce and study an example of feedback based on the observed output. (orig.)

  5. Echocardiography as an indication of continuous-time cardiac quiescence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wick, C. A.; Auffermann, W. F.; Shah, A. J.; Inan, O. T.; Bhatti, P. T.; Tridandapani, S.

    2016-07-01

    Cardiac computed tomography (CT) angiography using prospective gating requires that data be acquired during intervals of minimal cardiac motion to obtain diagnostic images of the coronary vessels free of motion artifacts. This work is intended to assess B-mode echocardiography as a continuous-time indication of these quiescent periods to determine if echocardiography can be used as a cost-efficient, non-ionizing modality to develop new prospective gating techniques for cardiac CT. These new prospective gating approaches will not be based on echocardiography itself but on CT-compatible modalities derived from the mechanics of the heart (e.g. seismocardiography and impedance cardiography), unlike the current standard electrocardiogram. To this end, echocardiography and retrospectively-gated CT data were obtained from ten patients with varied cardiac conditions. CT reconstructions were made throughout the cardiac cycle. Motion of the interventricular septum (IVS) was calculated from both echocardiography and CT reconstructions using correlation-based, deviation techniques. The IVS was chosen because it (1) is visible in echocardiography images, whereas the coronary vessels generally are not, and (2) has been shown to be a suitable indicator of cardiac quiescence. Quiescent phases were calculated as the minima of IVS motion and CT volumes were reconstructed for these phases. The diagnostic quality of the CT reconstructions from phases calculated from echocardiography and CT data was graded on a four-point Likert scale by a board-certified radiologist fellowship-trained in cardiothoracic radiology. Using a Wilcoxon signed-rank test, no significant difference in the diagnostic quality of the coronary vessels was found between CT volumes reconstructed from echocardiography- and CT-selected phases. Additionally, there was a correlation of 0.956 between the echocardiography- and CT-selected phases. This initial work suggests that B-mode echocardiography can be used as a

  6. Particle filters for random set models

    CERN Document Server

    Ristic, Branko

    2013-01-01

    “Particle Filters for Random Set Models” presents coverage of state estimation of stochastic dynamic systems from noisy measurements, specifically sequential Bayesian estimation and nonlinear or stochastic filtering. The class of solutions presented in this book is based  on the Monte Carlo statistical method. The resulting  algorithms, known as particle filters, in the last decade have become one of the essential tools for stochastic filtering, with applications ranging from  navigation and autonomous vehicles to bio-informatics and finance. While particle filters have been around for more than a decade, the recent theoretical developments of sequential Bayesian estimation in the framework of random set theory have provided new opportunities which are not widely known and are covered in this book. These recent developments have dramatically widened the scope of applications, from single to multiple appearing/disappearing objects, from precise to imprecise measurements and measurement models. This book...

  7. Fermion bag approach to Hamiltonian lattice field theories in continuous time

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huffman, Emilie; Chandrasekharan, Shailesh

    2017-12-01

    We extend the idea of fermion bags to Hamiltonian lattice field theories in the continuous time formulation. Using a class of models we argue that the temperature is a parameter that splits the fermion dynamics into small spatial regions that can be used to identify fermion bags. Using this idea we construct a continuous time quantum Monte Carlo algorithm and compute critical exponents in the 3 d Ising Gross-Neveu universality class using a single flavor of massless Hamiltonian staggered fermions. We find η =0.54 (6 ) and ν =0.88 (2 ) using lattices up to N =2304 sites. We argue that even sizes up to N =10 ,000 sites should be accessible with supercomputers available today.

  8. Summary statistics for end-point conditioned continuous-time Markov chains

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hobolth, Asger; Jensen, Jens Ledet

    Continuous-time Markov chains are a widely used modelling tool. Applications include DNA sequence evolution, ion channel gating behavior and mathematical finance. We consider the problem of calculating properties of summary statistics (e.g. mean time spent in a state, mean number of jumps between...... two states and the distribution of the total number of jumps) for discretely observed continuous time Markov chains. Three alternative methods for calculating properties of summary statistics are described and the pros and cons of the methods are discussed. The methods are based on (i) an eigenvalue...... decomposition of the rate matrix, (ii) the uniformization method, and (iii) integrals of matrix exponentials. In particular we develop a framework that allows for analyses of rather general summary statistics using the uniformization method....

  9. Connectivity ranking of heterogeneous random conductivity models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rizzo, C. B.; de Barros, F.

    2017-12-01

    To overcome the challenges associated with hydrogeological data scarcity, the hydraulic conductivity (K) field is often represented by a spatial random process. The state-of-the-art provides several methods to generate 2D or 3D random K-fields, such as the classic multi-Gaussian fields or non-Gaussian fields, training image-based fields and object-based fields. We provide a systematic comparison of these models based on their connectivity. We use the minimum hydraulic resistance as a connectivity measure, which it has been found to be strictly correlated with early time arrival of dissolved contaminants. A computationally efficient graph-based algorithm is employed, allowing a stochastic treatment of the minimum hydraulic resistance through a Monte-Carlo approach and therefore enabling the computation of its uncertainty. The results show the impact of geostatistical parameters on the connectivity for each group of random fields, being able to rank the fields according to their minimum hydraulic resistance.

  10. Modeling superhydrophobic surfaces comprised of random roughness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samaha, M. A.; Tafreshi, H. Vahedi; Gad-El-Hak, M.

    2011-11-01

    We model the performance of superhydrophobic surfaces comprised of randomly distributed roughness that resembles natural surfaces, or those produced via random deposition of hydrophobic particles. Such a fabrication method is far less expensive than ordered-microstructured fabrication. The present numerical simulations are aimed at improving our understanding of the drag reduction effect and the stability of the air-water interface in terms of the microstructure parameters. For comparison and validation, we have also simulated the flow over superhydrophobic surfaces made up of aligned or staggered microposts for channel flows as well as streamwise or spanwise ridge configurations for pipe flows. The present results are compared with other theoretical and experimental studies. The numerical simulations indicate that the random distribution of surface roughness has a favorable effect on drag reduction, as long as the gas fraction is kept the same. The stability of the meniscus, however, is strongly influenced by the average spacing between the roughness peaks, which needs to be carefully examined before a surface can be recommended for fabrication. Financial support from DARPA, contract number W91CRB-10-1-0003, is acknowledged.

  11. A random matrix model of relaxation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lebowitz, J L; Pastur, L

    2004-01-01

    We consider a two-level system, S 2 , coupled to a general n level system, S n , via a random matrix. We derive an integral representation for the mean reduced density matrix ρ(t) of S 2 in the limit n → ∞, and we identify a model of S n which possesses some of the properties expected for macroscopic thermal reservoirs. In particular, it yields the Gibbs form for ρ(∞). We also consider an analog of the van Hove limit and obtain a master equation (Markov dynamics) for the evolution of ρ(t) on an appropriate time scale

  12. Simulating continuous-time Hamiltonian dynamics by way of a discrete-time quantum walk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schmitz, A.T.; Schwalm, W.A.

    2016-01-01

    Much effort has been made to connect the continuous-time and discrete-time quantum walks. We present a method for making that connection for a general graph Hamiltonian on a bigraph. Furthermore, such a scheme may be adapted for simulating discretized quantum models on a quantum computer. A coin operator is found for the discrete-time quantum walk which exhibits the same dynamics as the continuous-time evolution. Given the spectral decomposition of the graph Hamiltonian and certain restrictions, the discrete-time evolution is solved for explicitly and understood at or near important values of the parameters. Finally, this scheme is connected to past results for the 1D chain. - Highlights: • A discrete-time quantum walk is purposed which approximates a continuous-time quantum walk. • The purposed quantum walk could be used to simulate Hamiltonian dynamics on a quantum computer. • Given the spectra decomposition of the Hamiltonian, the quantum walk is solved explicitly. • The method is demonstrated and connected to previous work done on the 1D chain.

  13. Ising model of a randomly triangulated random surface as a definition of fermionic string theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bershadsky, M.A.; Migdal, A.A.

    1986-01-01

    Fermionic degrees of freedom are added to randomly triangulated planar random surfaces. It is shown that the Ising model on a fixed graph is equivalent to a certain Majorana fermion theory on the dual graph. (orig.)

  14. Forecasting the Global Mean Sea Level, a Continuous-Time State-Space Approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boldrini, Lorenzo

    In this paper we propose a continuous-time, Gaussian, linear, state-space system to model the relation between global mean sea level (GMSL) and the global mean temperature (GMT), with the aim of making long-term projections for the GMSL. We provide a justification for the model specification based......) and the temperature reconstruction from Hansen et al. (2010). We compare the forecasting performance of the proposed specification to the procedures developed in Rahmstorf (2007b) and Vermeer and Rahmstorf (2009). Finally, we compute projections for the sea-level rise conditional on the 21st century SRES temperature...

  15. Random defect lines in conformal minimal models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jeng, M.; Ludwig, A.W.W.

    2001-01-01

    We analyze the effect of adding quenched disorder along a defect line in the 2D conformal minimal models using replicas. The disorder is realized by a random applied magnetic field in the Ising model, by fluctuations in the ferromagnetic bond coupling in the tricritical Ising model and tricritical three-state Potts model (the phi 12 operator), etc. We find that for the Ising model, the defect renormalizes to two decoupled half-planes without disorder, but that for all other models, the defect renormalizes to a disorder-dominated fixed point. Its critical properties are studied with an expansion in ε∝1/m for the mth Virasoro minimal model. The decay exponents X N =((N)/(2))1-((9(3N-4))/(4(m+1) 2 ))+O((3)/(m+1)) 3 of the Nth moment of the two-point function of phi 12 along the defect are obtained to 2-loop order, exhibiting multifractal behavior. This leads to a typical decay exponent X typ =((1)/(2))1+((9)/((m+1) 2 ))+O((3)/(m+1)) 3 . One-point functions are seen to have a non-self-averaging amplitude. The boundary entropy is larger than that of the pure system by order 1/m 3 . As a byproduct of our calculations, we also obtain to 2-loop order the exponent X-tilde N =N1-((2)/(9π 2 ))(3N-4)(q-2) 2 +O(q-2) 3 of the Nth moment of the energy operator in the q-state Potts model with bulk bond disorder

  16. Detectability of Granger causality for subsampled continuous-time neurophysiological processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnett, Lionel; Seth, Anil K

    2017-01-01

    Granger causality is well established within the neurosciences for inference of directed functional connectivity from neurophysiological data. These data usually consist of time series which subsample a continuous-time biophysiological process. While it is well known that subsampling can lead to imputation of spurious causal connections where none exist, less is known about the effects of subsampling on the ability to reliably detect causal connections which do exist. We present a theoretical analysis of the effects of subsampling on Granger-causal inference. Neurophysiological processes typically feature signal propagation delays on multiple time scales; accordingly, we base our analysis on a distributed-lag, continuous-time stochastic model, and consider Granger causality in continuous time at finite prediction horizons. Via exact analytical solutions, we identify relationships among sampling frequency, underlying causal time scales and detectability of causalities. We reveal complex interactions between the time scale(s) of neural signal propagation and sampling frequency. We demonstrate that detectability decays exponentially as the sample time interval increases beyond causal delay times, identify detectability "black spots" and "sweet spots", and show that downsampling may potentially improve detectability. We also demonstrate that the invariance of Granger causality under causal, invertible filtering fails at finite prediction horizons, with particular implications for inference of Granger causality from fMRI data. Our analysis emphasises that sampling rates for causal analysis of neurophysiological time series should be informed by domain-specific time scales, and that state-space modelling should be preferred to purely autoregressive modelling. On the basis of a very general model that captures the structure of neurophysiological processes, we are able to help identify confounds, and offer practical insights, for successful detection of causal connectivity

  17. Applying Mean-Field Approximation to Continuous Time Markov Chains

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kolesnichenko, A.V.; Senni, Valerio; Pourranjabar, Alireza; Remke, A.K.I.; Stoelinga, M.I.A.

    2014-01-01

    The mean-field analysis technique is used to perform analysis of a system with a large number of components to determine the emergent deterministic behaviour and how this behaviour modifies when its parameters are perturbed. The computer science performance modelling and analysis community has found

  18. On Discrete Time Control of Continuous Time Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Poulsen, Niels Kjølstad

    This report is meant as a supplement or an extension to the material used in connection to or after the courses Stochastic Adaptive Control (02421) and Static and Dynamic Optimization (02711) given at the department Department of Informatics and Mathematical Modelling, The Technical University...

  19. Finite-Time H∞ Filtering for Linear Continuous Time-Varying Systems with Uncertain Observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huihong Zhao

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper is concerned with the finite-time H∞ filtering problem for linear continuous time-varying systems with uncertain observations and ℒ2-norm bounded noise. The design of finite-time H∞ filter is equivalent to the problem that a certain indefinite quadratic form has a minimum and the filter is such that the minimum is positive. The quadratic form is related to a Krein state-space model according to the Krein space linear estimation theory. By using the projection theory in Krein space, the finite-time H∞ filtering problem is solved. A numerical example is given to illustrate the performance of the H∞ filter.

  20. Adaptive control of chaotic continuous-time systems with delay

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Yu-Chu; Gao, Furong

    1998-06-01

    A simple delay system governed by a first-order differential-delay equation may behave chaotically, but the conditions for the system to have such behaviors have not been well recognized. In this paper, a set of rules is postulated first for the conditions for the delay system to display chaos. A model-reference adaptive control scheme is then proposed to control the chaotic system state to converge to an arbitrarily given reference trajectory with certain and uncertain system parameters. Numerical examples are given to analyze the chaotic behaviors of the delay system and to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed adaptive control scheme.

  1. Random matrix model of adiabatic quantum computing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mitchell, David R.; Adami, Christoph; Lue, Waynn; Williams, Colin P.

    2005-01-01

    We present an analysis of the quantum adiabatic algorithm for solving hard instances of 3-SAT (an NP-complete problem) in terms of random matrix theory (RMT). We determine the global regularity of the spectral fluctuations of the instantaneous Hamiltonians encountered during the interpolation between the starting Hamiltonians and the ones whose ground states encode the solutions to the computational problems of interest. At each interpolation point, we quantify the degree of regularity of the average spectral distribution via its Brody parameter, a measure that distinguishes regular (i.e., Poissonian) from chaotic (i.e., Wigner-type) distributions of normalized nearest-neighbor spacings. We find that for hard problem instances - i.e., those having a critical ratio of clauses to variables - the spectral fluctuations typically become irregular across a contiguous region of the interpolation parameter, while the spectrum is regular for easy instances. Within the hard region, RMT may be applied to obtain a mathematical model of the probability of avoided level crossings and concomitant failure rate of the adiabatic algorithm due to nonadiabatic Landau-Zener-type transitions. Our model predicts that if the interpolation is performed at a uniform rate, the average failure rate of the quantum adiabatic algorithm, when averaged over hard problem instances, scales exponentially with increasing problem size

  2. Simulation of a directed random-walk model: the effect of pseudo-random-number correlations

    OpenAIRE

    Shchur, L. N.; Heringa, J. R.; Blöte, H. W. J.

    1996-01-01

    We investigate the mechanism that leads to systematic deviations in cluster Monte Carlo simulations when correlated pseudo-random numbers are used. We present a simple model, which enables an analysis of the effects due to correlations in several types of pseudo-random-number sequences. This model provides qualitative understanding of the bias mechanism in a class of cluster Monte Carlo algorithms.

  3. Dynamics of the Random Field Ising Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Jian

    The Random Field Ising Model (RFIM) is a general tool to study disordered systems. Crackling noise is generated when disordered systems are driven by external forces, spanning a broad range of sizes. Systems with different microscopic structures such as disordered mag- nets and Earth's crust have been studied under the RFIM. In this thesis, we investigated the domain dynamics and critical behavior in two dipole-coupled Ising ferromagnets Nd2Fe14B and LiHoxY 1-xF4. With Tc well above room temperature, Nd2Fe14B has shown reversible disorder when exposed to an external transverse field and crosses between two universality classes in the strong and weak disorder limits. Besides tunable disorder, LiHoxY1-xF4 has shown quantum tunneling effects arising from quantum fluctuations, providing another mechanism for domain reversal. Universality within and beyond power law dependence on avalanche size and energy were studied in LiHo0.65Y0.35 F4.

  4. Continuous-Time Mean-Variance Portfolio Selection: A Stochastic LQ Framework

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhou, X.Y.; Li, D.

    2000-01-01

    This paper is concerned with a continuous-time mean-variance portfolio selection model that is formulated as a bicriteria optimization problem. The objective is to maximize the expected terminal return and minimize the variance of the terminal wealth. By putting weights on the two criteria one obtains a single objective stochastic control problem which is however not in the standard form due to the variance term involved. It is shown that this nonstandard problem can be 'embedded' into a class of auxiliary stochastic linear-quadratic (LQ) problems. The stochastic LQ control model proves to be an appropriate and effective framework to study the mean-variance problem in light of the recent development on general stochastic LQ problems with indefinite control weighting matrices. This gives rise to the efficient frontier in a closed form for the original portfolio selection problem

  5. Comparison of methods for calculating conditional expectations of sufficient statistics for continuous time Markov chains

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tataru, Paula Cristina; Hobolth, Asger

    2011-01-01

    past evolutionary events (exact times and types of changes) are unaccessible and the past must be inferred from DNA sequence data observed in the present. RESULTS: We describe and implement three algorithms for computing linear combinations of expected values of the sufficient statistics, conditioned......BACKGROUND: Continuous time Markov chains (CTMCs) is a widely used model for describing the evolution of DNA sequences on the nucleotide, amino acid or codon level. The sufficient statistics for CTMCs are the time spent in a state and the number of changes between any two states. In applications...... of the algorithms is available at www.birc.au.dk/~paula/. CONCLUSIONS: We use two different models to analyze the accuracy and eight experiments to investigate the speed of the three algorithms. We find that they have similar accuracy and that EXPM is the slowest method. Furthermore we find that UNI is usually...

  6. Fitting timeseries by continuous-time Markov chains: A quadratic programming approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crommelin, D.T.; Vanden-Eijnden, E.

    2006-01-01

    Construction of stochastic models that describe the effective dynamics of observables of interest is an useful instrument in various fields of application, such as physics, climate science, and finance. We present a new technique for the construction of such models. From the timeseries of an observable, we construct a discrete-in-time Markov chain and calculate the eigenspectrum of its transition probability (or stochastic) matrix. As a next step we aim to find the generator of a continuous-time Markov chain whose eigenspectrum resembles the observed eigenspectrum as closely as possible, using an appropriate norm. The generator is found by solving a minimization problem: the norm is chosen such that the object function is quadratic and convex, so that the minimization problem can be solved using quadratic programming techniques. The technique is illustrated on various toy problems as well as on datasets stemming from simulations of molecular dynamics and of atmospheric flows

  7. A continuous-time/discrete-time mixed audio-band sigma delta ADC

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu Yan; Hua Siliang; Wang Donghui; Hou Chaohuan

    2011-01-01

    This paper introduces a mixed continuous-time/discrete-time, single-loop, fourth-order, 4-bit audio-band sigma delta ADC that combines the benefits of continuous-time and discrete-time circuits, while mitigating the challenges associated with continuous-time design. Measurement results show that the peak SNR of this ADC reaches 100 dB and the total power consumption is less than 30 mW. (semiconductor integrated circuits)

  8. A random regret minimization model of travel choice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chorus, C.G.; Arentze, T.A.; Timmermans, H.J.P.

    2008-01-01

    Abstract This paper presents an alternative to Random Utility-Maximization models of travel choice. Our Random Regret-Minimization model is rooted in Regret Theory and provides several useful features for travel demand analysis. Firstly, it allows for the possibility that choices between travel

  9. A Note on the Correlated Random Coefficient Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kolodziejczyk, Christophe

    In this note we derive the bias of the OLS estimator for a correlated random coefficient model with one random coefficient, but which is correlated with a binary variable. We provide set-identification to the parameters of interest of the model. We also show how to reduce the bias of the estimator...

  10. A random energy model for size dependence : recurrence vs. transience

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Külske, Christof

    1998-01-01

    We investigate the size dependence of disordered spin models having an infinite number of Gibbs measures in the framework of a simplified 'random energy model for size dependence'. We introduce two versions (involving either independent random walks or branching processes), that can be seen as

  11. Compensatory and non-compensatory multidimensional randomized item response models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fox, J.P.; Entink, R.K.; Avetisyan, M.

    2014-01-01

    Randomized response (RR) models are often used for analysing univariate randomized response data and measuring population prevalence of sensitive behaviours. There is much empirical support for the belief that RR methods improve the cooperation of the respondents. Recently, RR models have been

  12. Random matrix approach to plasmon resonances in the random impedance network model of disordered nanocomposites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olekhno, N. A.; Beltukov, Y. M.

    2018-05-01

    Random impedance networks are widely used as a model to describe plasmon resonances in disordered metal-dielectric and other two-component nanocomposites. In the present work, the spectral properties of resonances in random networks are studied within the framework of the random matrix theory. We have shown that the appropriate ensemble of random matrices for the considered problem is the Jacobi ensemble (the MANOVA ensemble). The obtained analytical expressions for the density of states in such resonant networks show a good agreement with the results of numerical simulations in a wide range of metal filling fractions 0

  13. Impulsive Control for Continuous-Time Markov Decision Processes: A Linear Programming Approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dufour, F., E-mail: dufour@math.u-bordeaux1.fr [Bordeaux INP, IMB, UMR CNRS 5251 (France); Piunovskiy, A. B., E-mail: piunov@liv.ac.uk [University of Liverpool, Department of Mathematical Sciences (United Kingdom)

    2016-08-15

    In this paper, we investigate an optimization problem for continuous-time Markov decision processes with both impulsive and continuous controls. We consider the so-called constrained problem where the objective of the controller is to minimize a total expected discounted optimality criterion associated with a cost rate function while keeping other performance criteria of the same form, but associated with different cost rate functions, below some given bounds. Our model allows multiple impulses at the same time moment. The main objective of this work is to study the associated linear program defined on a space of measures including the occupation measures of the controlled process and to provide sufficient conditions to ensure the existence of an optimal control.

  14. Continuous-Time Mean-Variance Portfolio Selection under the CEV Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hui-qiang Ma

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available We consider a continuous-time mean-variance portfolio selection model when stock price follows the constant elasticity of variance (CEV process. The aim of this paper is to derive an optimal portfolio strategy and the efficient frontier. The mean-variance portfolio selection problem is formulated as a linearly constrained convex program problem. By employing the Lagrange multiplier method and stochastic optimal control theory, we obtain the optimal portfolio strategy and mean-variance efficient frontier analytically. The results show that the mean-variance efficient frontier is still a parabola in the mean-variance plane, and the optimal strategies depend not only on the total wealth but also on the stock price. Moreover, some numerical examples are given to analyze the sensitivity of the efficient frontier with respect to the elasticity parameter and to illustrate the results presented in this paper. The numerical results show that the price of risk decreases as the elasticity coefficient increases.

  15. Some random models in traffic science

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hjorth, U.

    1996-06-01

    We give an overview of stochastic models for the following traffic phenomena. Models for traffic flow including gaps and capacities for lanes, crossings and roundabouts. Models for wanted and achieved speed distributions. Mode selection models including dispersed equilibrium models and traffic accident models. Also some statistical questions are discussed. 60 refs, 1 tab

  16. A Model for Random Student Drug Testing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nelson, Judith A.; Rose, Nancy L.; Lutz, Danielle

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this case study was to examine random student drug testing in one school district relevant to: (a) the perceptions of students participating in competitive extracurricular activities regarding drug use and abuse; (b) the attitudes and perceptions of parents, school staff, and community members regarding student drug involvement; (c)…

  17. Exclusive many-particle diffusion in disordered media and correlation functions for random vertex models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schuetz, G.; Sandow, S.

    1993-05-01

    We consider systems of particles hopping stochastically on d-dimensional lattices with space-dependent probabilities. We map the master equation in a Fock space where the dynamics are given by a quantum Hamiltonian (continuous time) or a transfer matrix resp. (discrete time). We show that under certain conditions the time-dependent two-point density correlation function in N-particle steady state can be computed from the probability distribution of a single particle moving in the same environment. Focussing on exclusion models where the lattice site can be occupied by at most one particle we discuss as an example for such a stochastic process a generalized Heisenberg antiferromagnet where the strength of the spin-spin coupling in space-dependent. In discrete time one obtains for one dimensional systems the diagonal-to-diagonal transfer matrix of the two dimensional six vertex model with space dependent vertex weights. For a random distribution of the vertex weights one obtains a version of the random barrier model describing diffusion of particles in disordered media. We derive exact expressions for the average two-point density correlation function in the presence of weak, correlated disorder. (authors)

  18. Critical thresholds for eventual extinction in randomly disturbed population growth models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peckham, Scott D; Waymire, Edward C; De Leenheer, Patrick

    2018-02-16

    This paper considers several single species growth models featuring a carrying capacity, which are subject to random disturbances that lead to instantaneous population reduction at the disturbance times. This is motivated in part by growing concerns about the impacts of climate change. Our main goal is to understand whether or not the species can persist in the long run. We consider the discrete-time stochastic process obtained by sampling the system immediately after the disturbances, and find various thresholds for several modes of convergence of this discrete process, including thresholds for the absence or existence of a positively supported invariant distribution. These thresholds are given explicitly in terms of the intensity and frequency of the disturbances on the one hand, and the population's growth characteristics on the other. We also perform a similar threshold analysis for the original continuous-time stochastic process, and obtain a formula that allows us to express the invariant distribution for this continuous-time process in terms of the invariant distribution of the discrete-time process, and vice versa. Examples illustrate that these distributions can differ, and this sends a cautionary message to practitioners who wish to parameterize these and related models using field data. Our analysis relies heavily on a particular feature shared by all the deterministic growth models considered here, namely that their solutions exhibit an exponentially weighted averaging property between a function of the initial condition, and the same function applied to the carrying capacity. This property is due to the fact that these systems can be transformed into affine systems.

  19. Analog model for quantum gravity effects: phonons in random fluids.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krein, G; Menezes, G; Svaiter, N F

    2010-09-24

    We describe an analog model for quantum gravity effects in condensed matter physics. The situation discussed is that of phonons propagating in a fluid with a random velocity wave equation. We consider that there are random fluctuations in the reciprocal of the bulk modulus of the system and study free phonons in the presence of Gaussian colored noise with zero mean. We show that, in this model, after performing the random averages over the noise function a free conventional scalar quantum field theory describing free phonons becomes a self-interacting model.

  20. A cluster expansion approach to exponential random graph models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yin, Mei

    2012-01-01

    The exponential family of random graphs are among the most widely studied network models. We show that any exponential random graph model may alternatively be viewed as a lattice gas model with a finite Banach space norm. The system may then be treated using cluster expansion methods from statistical mechanics. In particular, we derive a convergent power series expansion for the limiting free energy in the case of small parameters. Since the free energy is the generating function for the expectations of other random variables, this characterizes the structure and behavior of the limiting network in this parameter region

  1. Premium Pricing of Liability Insurance Using Random Sum Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mujiati Dwi Kartikasari

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Premium pricing is one of important activities in insurance. Nonlife insurance premium is calculated from expected value of historical data claims. The historical data claims are collected so that it forms a sum of independent random number which is called random sum. In premium pricing using random sum, claim frequency distribution and claim severity distribution are combined. The combination of these distributions is called compound distribution. By using liability claim insurance data, we analyze premium pricing using random sum model based on compound distribution

  2. Two-state random walk model of lattice diffusion - 1. Self-correlation function

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Balakrishnan, V.; Venkataraman, G.

    1981-01-01

    Diffusion with interruptions (arising from localized oscillations, or traps, or mixing between jump diffusion and fluid-like diffusion, etc.) is a very general phenomenon. Its manifestations range from superionic conductance to the behaviour of hydrogen in metals. Based on a continuous-time random walk approach, we present a comprehensive two-state random walk model for the diffusion of a particle on a lattice, incorporating arbitrary holding-time distributions for both localized residence at the sites and inter-site flights, and also the correct first-waiting-time distributions. A synthesis is thus achieved of the two extremes of jump diffusion (zero flight time) and fluid-like diffusion (zero residence time). Various earlier models emerge as special cases of our theory. Among the noteworthy results obtained are: closed-form solutions (in d dimensions, and with arbitrary directional bias) for temporarily uncorrelated jump diffusion and for the fluid diffusion counterpart; a compact, general formula for the mean square displacement; the effects of a continuous spectrum of time scales in the holding-time distributions, etc. The dynamic mobility and the structure factor for 'oscillatory diffusion' are taken up in part 2. (author)

  3. On the speed towards the mean for continuous time autoregressive moving average processes with applications to energy markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benth, Fred Espen; Taib, Che Mohd Imran Che

    2013-01-01

    We extend the concept of half life of an Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process to Lévy-driven continuous-time autoregressive moving average processes with stochastic volatility. The half life becomes state dependent, and we analyze its properties in terms of the characteristics of the process. An empirical example based on daily temperatures observed in Petaling Jaya, Malaysia, is presented, where the proposed model is estimated and the distribution of the half life is simulated. The stationarity of the dynamics yield futures prices which asymptotically tend to constant at an exponential rate when time to maturity goes to infinity. The rate is characterized by the eigenvalues of the dynamics. An alternative description of this convergence can be given in terms of our concept of half life. - Highlights: • The concept of half life is extended to Levy-driven continuous time autoregressive moving average processes • The dynamics of Malaysian temperatures are modeled using a continuous time autoregressive model with stochastic volatility • Forward prices on temperature become constant when time to maturity tends to infinity • Convergence in time to maturity is at an exponential rate given by the eigenvalues of the model temperature model

  4. Conditional Monte Carlo randomization tests for regression models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parhat, Parwen; Rosenberger, William F; Diao, Guoqing

    2014-08-15

    We discuss the computation of randomization tests for clinical trials of two treatments when the primary outcome is based on a regression model. We begin by revisiting the seminal paper of Gail, Tan, and Piantadosi (1988), and then describe a method based on Monte Carlo generation of randomization sequences. The tests based on this Monte Carlo procedure are design based, in that they incorporate the particular randomization procedure used. We discuss permuted block designs, complete randomization, and biased coin designs. We also use a new technique by Plamadeala and Rosenberger (2012) for simple computation of conditional randomization tests. Like Gail, Tan, and Piantadosi, we focus on residuals from generalized linear models and martingale residuals from survival models. Such techniques do not apply to longitudinal data analysis, and we introduce a method for computation of randomization tests based on the predicted rate of change from a generalized linear mixed model when outcomes are longitudinal. We show, by simulation, that these randomization tests preserve the size and power well under model misspecification. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  5. Well-posedness and accuracy of the ensemble Kalman filter in discrete and continuous time

    KAUST Repository

    Kelly, D. T B

    2014-09-22

    The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is a method for combining a dynamical model with data in a sequential fashion. Despite its widespread use, there has been little analysis of its theoretical properties. Many of the algorithmic innovations associated with the filter, which are required to make a useable algorithm in practice, are derived in an ad hoc fashion. The aim of this paper is to initiate the development of a systematic analysis of the EnKF, in particular to do so for small ensemble size. The perspective is to view the method as a state estimator, and not as an algorithm which approximates the true filtering distribution. The perturbed observation version of the algorithm is studied, without and with variance inflation. Without variance inflation well-posedness of the filter is established; with variance inflation accuracy of the filter, with respect to the true signal underlying the data, is established. The algorithm is considered in discrete time, and also for a continuous time limit arising when observations are frequent and subject to large noise. The underlying dynamical model, and assumptions about it, is sufficiently general to include the Lorenz \\'63 and \\'96 models, together with the incompressible Navier-Stokes equation on a two-dimensional torus. The analysis is limited to the case of complete observation of the signal with additive white noise. Numerical results are presented for the Navier-Stokes equation on a two-dimensional torus for both complete and partial observations of the signal with additive white noise.

  6. The ising model on the dynamical triangulated random surface

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aleinov, I.D.; Migelal, A.A.; Zmushkow, U.V.

    1990-01-01

    The critical properties of Ising model on the dynamical triangulated random surface embedded in D-dimensional Euclidean space are investigated. The strong coupling expansion method is used. The transition to thermodynamical limit is performed by means of continuous fractions

  7. Exponential stability of continuous-time and discrete-time bidirectional associative memory networks with delays

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liang Jinling; Cao Jinde

    2004-01-01

    First, convergence of continuous-time Bidirectional Associative Memory (BAM) neural networks are studied. By using Lyapunov functionals and some analysis technique, the delay-independent sufficient conditions are obtained for the networks to converge exponentially toward the equilibrium associated with the constant input sources. Second, discrete-time analogues of the continuous-time BAM networks are formulated and studied. It is shown that the convergence characteristics of the continuous-time systems are preserved by the discrete-time analogues without any restriction imposed on the uniform discretionary step size. An illustrative example is given to demonstrate the effectiveness of the obtained results

  8. Simulating WTP Values from Random-Coefficient Models

    OpenAIRE

    Maurus Rischatsch

    2009-01-01

    Discrete Choice Experiments (DCEs) designed to estimate willingness-to-pay (WTP) values are very popular in health economics. With increased computation power and advanced simulation techniques, random-coefficient models have gained an increasing importance in applied work as they allow for taste heterogeneity. This paper discusses the parametrical derivation of WTP values from estimated random-coefficient models and shows how these values can be simulated in cases where they do not have a kn...

  9. Approximating prediction uncertainty for random forest regression models

    Science.gov (United States)

    John W. Coulston; Christine E. Blinn; Valerie A. Thomas; Randolph H. Wynne

    2016-01-01

    Machine learning approaches such as random forest have increased for the spatial modeling and mapping of continuous variables. Random forest is a non-parametric ensemble approach, and unlike traditional regression approaches there is no direct quantification of prediction error. Understanding prediction uncertainty is important when using model-based continuous maps as...

  10. A random spatial network model based on elementary postulates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karlinger, Michael R.; Troutman, Brent M.

    1989-01-01

    A model for generating random spatial networks that is based on elementary postulates comparable to those of the random topology model is proposed. In contrast to the random topology model, this model ascribes a unique spatial specification to generated drainage networks, a distinguishing property of some network growth models. The simplicity of the postulates creates an opportunity for potential analytic investigations of the probabilistic structure of the drainage networks, while the spatial specification enables analyses of spatially dependent network properties. In the random topology model all drainage networks, conditioned on magnitude (number of first-order streams), are equally likely, whereas in this model all spanning trees of a grid, conditioned on area and drainage density, are equally likely. As a result, link lengths in the generated networks are not independent, as usually assumed in the random topology model. For a preliminary model evaluation, scale-dependent network characteristics, such as geometric diameter and link length properties, and topologic characteristics, such as bifurcation ratio, are computed for sets of drainage networks generated on square and rectangular grids. Statistics of the bifurcation and length ratios fall within the range of values reported for natural drainage networks, but geometric diameters tend to be relatively longer than those for natural networks.

  11. Application of random regression models to the genetic evaluation ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The model included fixed regression on AM (range from 30 to 138 mo) and the effect of herd-measurement date concatenation. Random parts of the model were RRM coefficients for additive and permanent environmental effects, while residual effects were modelled to account for heterogeneity of variance by AY. Estimates ...

  12. Comparison of methods for calculating conditional expectations of sufficient statistics for continuous time Markov chains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tataru, Paula; Hobolth, Asger

    2011-12-05

    Continuous time Markov chains (CTMCs) is a widely used model for describing the evolution of DNA sequences on the nucleotide, amino acid or codon level. The sufficient statistics for CTMCs are the time spent in a state and the number of changes between any two states. In applications past evolutionary events (exact times and types of changes) are unaccessible and the past must be inferred from DNA sequence data observed in the present. We describe and implement three algorithms for computing linear combinations of expected values of the sufficient statistics, conditioned on the end-points of the chain, and compare their performance with respect to accuracy and running time. The first algorithm is based on an eigenvalue decomposition of the rate matrix (EVD), the second on uniformization (UNI), and the third on integrals of matrix exponentials (EXPM). The implementation in R of the algorithms is available at http://www.birc.au.dk/~paula/. We use two different models to analyze the accuracy and eight experiments to investigate the speed of the three algorithms. We find that they have similar accuracy and that EXPM is the slowest method. Furthermore we find that UNI is usually faster than EVD.

  13. Comparison of methods for calculating conditional expectations of sufficient statistics for continuous time Markov chains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tataru Paula

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Continuous time Markov chains (CTMCs is a widely used model for describing the evolution of DNA sequences on the nucleotide, amino acid or codon level. The sufficient statistics for CTMCs are the time spent in a state and the number of changes between any two states. In applications past evolutionary events (exact times and types of changes are unaccessible and the past must be inferred from DNA sequence data observed in the present. Results We describe and implement three algorithms for computing linear combinations of expected values of the sufficient statistics, conditioned on the end-points of the chain, and compare their performance with respect to accuracy and running time. The first algorithm is based on an eigenvalue decomposition of the rate matrix (EVD, the second on uniformization (UNI, and the third on integrals of matrix exponentials (EXPM. The implementation in R of the algorithms is available at http://www.birc.au.dk/~paula/. Conclusions We use two different models to analyze the accuracy and eight experiments to investigate the speed of the three algorithms. We find that they have similar accuracy and that EXPM is the slowest method. Furthermore we find that UNI is usually faster than EVD.

  14. CMOS continuous-time adaptive equalizers for high-speed serial links

    CERN Document Server

    Gimeno Gasca, Cecilia; Aldea Chagoyen, Concepción

    2015-01-01

    This book introduces readers to the design of adaptive equalization solutions integrated in standard CMOS technology for high-speed serial links. Since continuous-time equalizers offer various advantages as an alternative to discrete-time equalizers at multi-gigabit rates, this book provides a detailed description of continuous-time adaptive equalizers design - both at transistor and system levels-, their main characteristics and performances. The authors begin with a complete review and analysis of the state of the art of equalizers for wireline applications, describing why they are necessary, their types, and their main applications. Next, theoretical fundamentals of continuous-time adaptive equalizers are explored. Then, new structures are proposed to implement the different building blocks of the adaptive equalizer: line equalizer, loop-filters, power comparator, etc.  The authors demonstrate the design of a complete low-power, low-voltage, high-speed, continuous-time adaptive equalizer. Finally, a cost-...

  15. Random regression models for detection of gene by environment interaction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meuwissen Theo HE

    2007-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Two random regression models, where the effect of a putative QTL was regressed on an environmental gradient, are described. The first model estimates the correlation between intercept and slope of the random regression, while the other model restricts this correlation to 1 or -1, which is expected under a bi-allelic QTL model. The random regression models were compared to a model assuming no gene by environment interactions. The comparison was done with regards to the models ability to detect QTL, to position them accurately and to detect possible QTL by environment interactions. A simulation study based on a granddaughter design was conducted, and QTL were assumed, either by assigning an effect independent of the environment or as a linear function of a simulated environmental gradient. It was concluded that the random regression models were suitable for detection of QTL effects, in the presence and absence of interactions with environmental gradients. Fixing the correlation between intercept and slope of the random regression had a positive effect on power when the QTL effects re-ranked between environments.

  16. Elastic LiDAR Fusion: Dense Map-Centric Continuous-Time SLAM

    OpenAIRE

    Park, Chanoh; Moghadam, Peyman; Kim, Soohwan; Elfes, Alberto; Fookes, Clinton; Sridharan, Sridha

    2017-01-01

    The concept of continuous-time trajectory representation has brought increased accuracy and efficiency to multi-modal sensor fusion in modern SLAM. However, regardless of these advantages, its offline property caused by the requirement of global batch optimization is critically hindering its relevance for real-time and life-long applications. In this paper, we present a dense map-centric SLAM method based on a continuous-time trajectory to cope with this problem. The proposed system locally f...

  17. Reinforcement learning using a continuous time actor-critic framework with spiking neurons.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicolas Frémaux

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Animals repeat rewarded behaviors, but the physiological basis of reward-based learning has only been partially elucidated. On one hand, experimental evidence shows that the neuromodulator dopamine carries information about rewards and affects synaptic plasticity. On the other hand, the theory of reinforcement learning provides a framework for reward-based learning. Recent models of reward-modulated spike-timing-dependent plasticity have made first steps towards bridging the gap between the two approaches, but faced two problems. First, reinforcement learning is typically formulated in a discrete framework, ill-adapted to the description of natural situations. Second, biologically plausible models of reward-modulated spike-timing-dependent plasticity require precise calculation of the reward prediction error, yet it remains to be shown how this can be computed by neurons. Here we propose a solution to these problems by extending the continuous temporal difference (TD learning of Doya (2000 to the case of spiking neurons in an actor-critic network operating in continuous time, and with continuous state and action representations. In our model, the critic learns to predict expected future rewards in real time. Its activity, together with actual rewards, conditions the delivery of a neuromodulatory TD signal to itself and to the actor, which is responsible for action choice. In simulations, we show that such an architecture can solve a Morris water-maze-like navigation task, in a number of trials consistent with reported animal performance. We also use our model to solve the acrobot and the cartpole problems, two complex motor control tasks. Our model provides a plausible way of computing reward prediction error in the brain. Moreover, the analytically derived learning rule is consistent with experimental evidence for dopamine-modulated spike-timing-dependent plasticity.

  18. Disorder Identification in Hysteresis Data: Recognition Analysis of the Random-Bond-Random-Field Ising Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ovchinnikov, O. S.; Jesse, S.; Kalinin, S. V.; Bintacchit, P.; Trolier-McKinstry, S.

    2009-01-01

    An approach for the direct identification of disorder type and strength in physical systems based on recognition analysis of hysteresis loop shape is developed. A large number of theoretical examples uniformly distributed in the parameter space of the system is generated and is decorrelated using principal component analysis (PCA). The PCA components are used to train a feed-forward neural network using the model parameters as targets. The trained network is used to analyze hysteresis loops for the investigated system. The approach is demonstrated using a 2D random-bond-random-field Ising model, and polarization switching in polycrystalline ferroelectric capacitors.

  19. A generalized model via random walks for information filtering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ren, Zhuo-Ming; Kong, Yixiu; Shang, Ming-Sheng; Zhang, Yi-Cheng

    2016-01-01

    There could exist a simple general mechanism lurking beneath collaborative filtering and interdisciplinary physics approaches which have been successfully applied to online E-commerce platforms. Motivated by this idea, we propose a generalized model employing the dynamics of the random walk in the bipartite networks. Taking into account the degree information, the proposed generalized model could deduce the collaborative filtering, interdisciplinary physics approaches and even the enormous expansion of them. Furthermore, we analyze the generalized model with single and hybrid of degree information on the process of random walk in bipartite networks, and propose a possible strategy by using the hybrid degree information for different popular objects to toward promising precision of the recommendation. - Highlights: • We propose a generalized recommendation model employing the random walk dynamics. • The proposed model with single and hybrid of degree information is analyzed. • A strategy with the hybrid degree information improves precision of recommendation.

  20. A generalized model via random walks for information filtering

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ren, Zhuo-Ming, E-mail: zhuomingren@gmail.com [Department of Physics, University of Fribourg, Chemin du Musée 3, CH-1700, Fribourg (Switzerland); Chongqing Institute of Green and Intelligent Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, ChongQing, 400714 (China); Kong, Yixiu [Department of Physics, University of Fribourg, Chemin du Musée 3, CH-1700, Fribourg (Switzerland); Shang, Ming-Sheng, E-mail: msshang@cigit.ac.cn [Chongqing Institute of Green and Intelligent Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, ChongQing, 400714 (China); Zhang, Yi-Cheng [Department of Physics, University of Fribourg, Chemin du Musée 3, CH-1700, Fribourg (Switzerland)

    2016-08-06

    There could exist a simple general mechanism lurking beneath collaborative filtering and interdisciplinary physics approaches which have been successfully applied to online E-commerce platforms. Motivated by this idea, we propose a generalized model employing the dynamics of the random walk in the bipartite networks. Taking into account the degree information, the proposed generalized model could deduce the collaborative filtering, interdisciplinary physics approaches and even the enormous expansion of them. Furthermore, we analyze the generalized model with single and hybrid of degree information on the process of random walk in bipartite networks, and propose a possible strategy by using the hybrid degree information for different popular objects to toward promising precision of the recommendation. - Highlights: • We propose a generalized recommendation model employing the random walk dynamics. • The proposed model with single and hybrid of degree information is analyzed. • A strategy with the hybrid degree information improves precision of recommendation.

  1. Money Creation in a Random Matching Model

    OpenAIRE

    Alexei Deviatov

    2006-01-01

    I study money creation in versions of the Trejos-Wright (1995) and Shi (1995) models with indivisible money and individual holdings bounded at two units. I work with the same class of policies as in Deviatov and Wallace (2001), who study money creation in that model. However, I consider an alternative notion of implementability–the ex ante pairwise core. I compute a set of numerical examples to determine whether money creation is beneficial. I find beneficial e?ects of money creation if indiv...

  2. Random effects models in clinical research

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cleophas, T. J.; Zwinderman, A. H.

    2008-01-01

    BACKGROUND: In clinical trials a fixed effects research model assumes that the patients selected for a specific treatment have the same true quantitative effect and that the differences observed are residual error. If, however, we have reasons to believe that certain patients respond differently

  3. Integral reinforcement learning for continuous-time input-affine nonlinear systems with simultaneous invariant explorations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Jae Young; Park, Jin Bae; Choi, Yoon Ho

    2015-05-01

    This paper focuses on a class of reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms, named integral RL (I-RL), that solve continuous-time (CT) nonlinear optimal control problems with input-affine system dynamics. First, we extend the concepts of exploration, integral temporal difference, and invariant admissibility to the target CT nonlinear system that is governed by a control policy plus a probing signal called an exploration. Then, we show input-to-state stability (ISS) and invariant admissibility of the closed-loop systems with the policies generated by integral policy iteration (I-PI) or invariantly admissible PI (IA-PI) method. Based on these, three online I-RL algorithms named explorized I-PI and integral Q -learning I, II are proposed, all of which generate the same convergent sequences as I-PI and IA-PI under the required excitation condition on the exploration. All the proposed methods are partially or completely model free, and can simultaneously explore the state space in a stable manner during the online learning processes. ISS, invariant admissibility, and convergence properties of the proposed methods are also investigated, and related with these, we show the design principles of the exploration for safe learning. Neural-network-based implementation methods for the proposed schemes are also presented in this paper. Finally, several numerical simulations are carried out to verify the effectiveness of the proposed methods.

  4. Coherent exciton transport in dendrimers and continuous-time quantum walks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mülken, Oliver; Bierbaum, Veronika; Blumen, Alexander

    2006-03-01

    We model coherent exciton transport in dendrimers by continuous-time quantum walks. For dendrimers up to the second generation the coherent transport shows perfect recurrences when the initial excitation starts at the central node. For larger dendrimers, the recurrence ceases to be perfect, a fact which resembles results for discrete quantum carpets. Moreover, depending on the initial excitation site, we find that the coherent transport to certain nodes of the dendrimer has a very low probability. When the initial excitation starts from the central node, the problem can be mapped onto a line which simplifies the computational effort. Furthermore, the long time average of the quantum mechanical transition probabilities between pairs of nodes shows characteristic patterns and allows us to classify the nodes into clusters with identical limiting probabilities. For the (space) average of the quantum mechanical probability to be still or to be again at the initial site, we obtain, based on the Cauchy-Schwarz inequality, a simple lower bound which depends only on the eigenvalue spectrum of the Hamiltonian.

  5. Money creation process in a random redistribution model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Siyan; Wang, Yougui; Li, Keqiang; Wu, Jinshan

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, the dynamical process of money creation in a random exchange model with debt is investigated. The money creation kinetics are analyzed by both the money-transfer matrix method and the diffusion method. From both approaches, we attain the same conclusion: the source of money creation in the case of random exchange is the agents with neither money nor debt. These analytical results are demonstrated by computer simulations.

  6. Utility based maintenance analysis using a Random Sign censoring model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andres Christen, J.; Ruggeri, Fabrizio; Villa, Enrique

    2011-01-01

    Industrial systems subject to failures are usually inspected when there are evident signs of an imminent failure. Maintenance is therefore performed at a random time, somehow dependent on the failure mechanism. A competing risk model, namely a Random Sign model, is considered to relate failure and maintenance times. We propose a novel Bayesian analysis of the model and apply it to actual data from a water pump in an oil refinery. The design of an optimal maintenance policy is then discussed under a formal decision theoretic approach, analyzing the goodness of the current maintenance policy and making decisions about the optimal maintenance time.

  7. Well-posedness and accuracy of the ensemble Kalman filter in discrete and continuous time

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kelly, D T B; Stuart, A M; Law, K J H

    2014-01-01

    The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is a method for combining a dynamical model with data in a sequential fashion. Despite its widespread use, there has been little analysis of its theoretical properties. Many of the algorithmic innovations associated with the filter, which are required to make a useable algorithm in practice, are derived in an ad hoc fashion. The aim of this paper is to initiate the development of a systematic analysis of the EnKF, in particular to do so for small ensemble size. The perspective is to view the method as a state estimator, and not as an algorithm which approximates the true filtering distribution. The perturbed observation version of the algorithm is studied, without and with variance inflation. Without variance inflation well-posedness of the filter is established; with variance inflation accuracy of the filter, with respect to the true signal underlying the data, is established. The algorithm is considered in discrete time, and also for a continuous time limit arising when observations are frequent and subject to large noise. The underlying dynamical model, and assumptions about it, is sufficiently general to include the Lorenz '63 and '96 models, together with the incompressible Navier–Stokes equation on a two-dimensional torus. The analysis is limited to the case of complete observation of the signal with additive white noise. Numerical results are presented for the Navier–Stokes equation on a two-dimensional torus for both complete and partial observations of the signal with additive white noise. (paper)

  8. Asymmetric continuous-time neural networks without local traps for solving constraint satisfaction problems.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Botond Molnár

    Full Text Available There has been a long history of using neural networks for combinatorial optimization and constraint satisfaction problems. Symmetric Hopfield networks and similar approaches use steepest descent dynamics, and they always converge to the closest local minimum of the energy landscape. For finding global minima additional parameter-sensitive techniques are used, such as classical simulated annealing or the so-called chaotic simulated annealing, which induces chaotic dynamics by addition of extra terms to the energy landscape. Here we show that asymmetric continuous-time neural networks can solve constraint satisfaction problems without getting trapped in non-solution attractors. We concentrate on a model solving Boolean satisfiability (k-SAT, which is a quintessential NP-complete problem. There is a one-to-one correspondence between the stable fixed points of the neural network and the k-SAT solutions and we present numerical evidence that limit cycles may also be avoided by appropriately choosing the parameters of the model. This optimal parameter region is fairly independent of the size and hardness of instances, this way parameters can be chosen independently of the properties of problems and no tuning is required during the dynamical process. The model is similar to cellular neural networks already used in CNN computers. On an analog device solving a SAT problem would take a single operation: the connection weights are determined by the k-SAT instance and starting from any initial condition the system searches until finding a solution. In this new approach transient chaotic behavior appears as a natural consequence of optimization hardness and not as an externally induced effect.

  9. (Non-) Gibbsianness and Phase Transitions in Random Lattice Spin Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Külske, C.

    1999-01-01

    We consider disordered lattice spin models with finite-volume Gibbs measures µΛ[η](dσ). Here σ denotes a lattice spin variable and η a lattice random variable with product distribution P describing the quenched disorder of the model. We ask: when will the joint measures limΛ↑Zd P(dη)µΛ[η](dσ) be

  10. Shape Modelling Using Markov Random Field Restoration of Point Correspondences

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Paulsen, Rasmus Reinhold; Hilger, Klaus Baggesen

    2003-01-01

    A method for building statistical point distribution models is proposed. The novelty in this paper is the adaption of Markov random field regularization of the correspondence field over the set of shapes. The new approach leads to a generative model that produces highly homogeneous polygonized sh...

  11. Simulating intrafraction prostate motion with a random walk model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tobias Pommer, PhD

    2017-07-01

    Conclusions: Random walk modeling is feasible and recreated the characteristics of the observed prostate motion. Introducing artificial transient motion did not improve the overall agreement, although the first 30 seconds of the traces were better reproduced. The model provides a simple estimate of prostate motion during delivery of radiation therapy.

  12. Single-cluster dynamics for the random-cluster model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Deng, Y.; Qian, X.; Blöte, H.W.J.

    2009-01-01

    We formulate a single-cluster Monte Carlo algorithm for the simulation of the random-cluster model. This algorithm is a generalization of the Wolff single-cluster method for the q-state Potts model to noninteger values q>1. Its results for static quantities are in a satisfactory agreement with those

  13. Application of Poisson random effect models for highway network screening.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Ximiao; Abdel-Aty, Mohamed; Alamili, Samer

    2014-02-01

    In recent years, Bayesian random effect models that account for the temporal and spatial correlations of crash data became popular in traffic safety research. This study employs random effect Poisson Log-Normal models for crash risk hotspot identification. Both the temporal and spatial correlations of crash data were considered. Potential for Safety Improvement (PSI) were adopted as a measure of the crash risk. Using the fatal and injury crashes that occurred on urban 4-lane divided arterials from 2006 to 2009 in the Central Florida area, the random effect approaches were compared to the traditional Empirical Bayesian (EB) method and the conventional Bayesian Poisson Log-Normal model. A series of method examination tests were conducted to evaluate the performance of different approaches. These tests include the previously developed site consistence test, method consistence test, total rank difference test, and the modified total score test, as well as the newly proposed total safety performance measure difference test. Results show that the Bayesian Poisson model accounting for both temporal and spatial random effects (PTSRE) outperforms the model that with only temporal random effect, and both are superior to the conventional Poisson Log-Normal model (PLN) and the EB model in the fitting of crash data. Additionally, the method evaluation tests indicate that the PTSRE model is significantly superior to the PLN model and the EB model in consistently identifying hotspots during successive time periods. The results suggest that the PTSRE model is a superior alternative for road site crash risk hotspot identification. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. A note on moving average models for Gaussian random fields

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Linda Vadgård; Thorarinsdottir, Thordis L.

    The class of moving average models offers a flexible modeling framework for Gaussian random fields with many well known models such as the Matérn covariance family and the Gaussian covariance falling under this framework. Moving average models may also be viewed as a kernel smoothing of a Lévy...... basis, a general modeling framework which includes several types of non-Gaussian models. We propose a new one-parameter spatial correlation model which arises from a power kernel and show that the associated Hausdorff dimension of the sample paths can take any value between 2 and 3. As a result...

  15. The hard-core model on random graphs revisited

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barbier, Jean; Krzakala, Florent; Zhang, Pan; Zdeborová, Lenka

    2013-01-01

    We revisit the classical hard-core model, also known as independent set and dual to vertex cover problem, where one puts particles with a first-neighbor hard-core repulsion on the vertices of a random graph. Although the case of random graphs with small and very large average degrees respectively are quite well understood, they yield qualitatively different results and our aim here is to reconciliate these two cases. We revisit results that can be obtained using the (heuristic) cavity method and show that it provides a closed-form conjecture for the exact density of the densest packing on random regular graphs with degree K ≥ 20, and that for K > 16 the nature of the phase transition is the same as for large K. This also shows that the hard-code model is the simplest mean-field lattice model for structural glasses and jamming

  16. Lamplighter model of a random copolymer adsorption on a line

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L.I. Nazarov

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available We present a model of an AB-diblock random copolymer sequential self-packaging with local quenched interactions on a one-dimensional infinite sticky substrate. It is assumed that the A-A and B-B contacts are favorable, while A-B are not. The position of a newly added monomer is selected in view of the local contact energy minimization. The model demonstrates a self-organization behavior with the nontrivial dependence of the total energy, E (the number of unfavorable contacts, on the number of chain monomers, N: E ~ N^3/4 for quenched random equally probable distribution of A- and B-monomers along the chain. The model is treated by mapping it onto the "lamplighter" random walk and the diffusion-controlled chemical reaction of X+X → 0 type with the subdiffusive motion of reagents.

  17. Some Limits Using Random Slope Models to Measure Academic Growth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel B. Wright

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Academic growth is often estimated using a random slope multilevel model with several years of data. However, if there are few time points, the estimates can be unreliable. While using random slope multilevel models can lower the variance of the estimates, these procedures can produce more highly erroneous estimates—zero and negative correlations with the true underlying growth—than using ordinary least squares estimates calculated for each student or school individually. An example is provided where schools with increasing graduation rates are estimated to have negative growth and vice versa. The estimation is worse when the underlying data are skewed. It is recommended that there are at least six time points for estimating growth if using a random slope model. A combination of methods can be used to avoid some of the aberrant results if it is not possible to have six or more time points.

  18. The random field Blume-Capel model revisited

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santos, P. V.; da Costa, F. A.; de Araújo, J. M.

    2018-04-01

    We have revisited the mean-field treatment for the Blume-Capel model under the presence of a discrete random magnetic field as introduced by Kaufman and Kanner (1990). The magnetic field (H) versus temperature (T) phase diagrams for given values of the crystal field D were recovered in accordance to Kaufman and Kanner original work. However, our main goal in the present work was to investigate the distinct structures of the crystal field versus temperature phase diagrams as the random magnetic field is varied because similar models have presented reentrant phenomenon due to randomness. Following previous works we have classified the distinct phase diagrams according to five different topologies. The topological structure of the phase diagrams is maintained for both H - T and D - T cases. Although the phase diagrams exhibit a richness of multicritical phenomena we did not found any reentrant effect as have been seen in similar models.

  19. Child mortality inequalities across Rwanda districts: a geoadditive continuous-time survival analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    François Niragire

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Child survival programmes are efficient when they target the most significant and area-specific factors. This study aimed to assess the key determinants and spatial variation of child mortality at the district level in Rwanda. Data from the 2010 Rwanda Demographic and Health Survey were analysed for 8817 live births that occurred during five years preceding the survey. Out of the children born, 433 had died before survey interviews were carried out. A full Bayesian geo-additive continuous-time hazard model enabled us to maximise data utilisation and hence improve the accuracy of our estimates. The results showed substantial district- level spatial variation in childhood mortality in Rwanda. District-specific spatial characteristics were particularly associated with higher death hazards in two districts: Musanze and Nyabihu. The model estimates showed that there were lower death rates among children from households of medium and high economic status compared to those from low-economic status households. Factors, such as four antenatal care visits, delivery at a health facility, prolonged breastfeeding and mothers younger than 31 years were associated with lower child death rates. Long preceding birth intervals were also associated with fewer hazards. For these reasons, programmes aimed at reducing child mortality gaps between districts in Rwanda should target maternal factors and take into consideration district-specific spatial characteristics. Further, child survival gains require strengthening or scaling-up of existing programmes pertaining to access to, and utilisation of maternal and child health care services as well as reduction of the household gap in the economic status.

  20. Child mortality inequalities across Rwanda districts: a geoadditive continuous-time survival analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niragire, François; Achia, Thomas N O; Lyambabaje, Alexandre; Ntaganira, Joseph

    2017-05-11

    Child survival programmes are efficient when they target the most significant and area-specific factors. This study aimed to assess the key determinants and spatial variation of child mortality at the district level in Rwanda. Data from the 2010 Rwanda Demographic and Health Survey were analysed for 8817 live births that occurred during five years preceding the survey. Out of the children born, 433 had died before survey interviews were carried out. A full Bayesian geo-additive continuous-time hazard model enabled us to maximise data utilisation and hence improve the accuracy of our estimates. The results showed substantial district- level spatial variation in childhood mortality in Rwanda. District-specific spatial characteristics were particularly associated with higher death hazards in two districts: Musanze and Nyabihu. The model estimates showed that there were lower death rates among children from households of medium and high economic status compared to those from low-economic status households. Factors, such as four antenatal care visits, delivery at a health facility, prolonged breastfeeding and mothers younger than 31 years were associated with lower child death rates. Long preceding birth intervals were also associated with fewer hazards. For these reasons, programmes aimed at reducing child mortality gaps between districts in Rwanda should target maternal factors and take into consideration district-specific spatial characteristics. Further, child survival gains require strengthening or scaling-up of existing programmes pertaining to access to, and utilisation of maternal and child health care services as well as reduction of the household gap in the economic status.

  1. Effects of random noise in a dynamical model of love

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xu Yong, E-mail: hsux3@nwpu.edu.cn [Department of Applied Mathematics, Northwestern Polytechnical University, Xi' an 710072 (China); Gu Rencai; Zhang Huiqing [Department of Applied Mathematics, Northwestern Polytechnical University, Xi' an 710072 (China)

    2011-07-15

    Highlights: > We model the complexity and unpredictability of psychology as Gaussian white noise. > The stochastic system of love is considered including bifurcation and chaos. > We show that noise can both suppress and induce chaos in dynamical models of love. - Abstract: This paper aims to investigate the stochastic model of love and the effects of random noise. We first revisit the deterministic model of love and some basic properties are presented such as: symmetry, dissipation, fixed points (equilibrium), chaotic behaviors and chaotic attractors. Then we construct a stochastic love-triangle model with parametric random excitation due to the complexity and unpredictability of the psychological system, where the randomness is modeled as the standard Gaussian noise. Stochastic dynamics under different three cases of 'Romeo's romantic style', are examined and two kinds of bifurcations versus the noise intensity parameter are observed by the criteria of changes of top Lyapunov exponent and shape of stationary probability density function (PDF) respectively. The phase portraits and time history are carried out to verify the proposed results, and the good agreement can be found. And also the dual roles of the random noise, namely suppressing and inducing chaos are revealed.

  2. Effects of random noise in a dynamical model of love

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xu Yong; Gu Rencai; Zhang Huiqing

    2011-01-01

    Highlights: → We model the complexity and unpredictability of psychology as Gaussian white noise. → The stochastic system of love is considered including bifurcation and chaos. → We show that noise can both suppress and induce chaos in dynamical models of love. - Abstract: This paper aims to investigate the stochastic model of love and the effects of random noise. We first revisit the deterministic model of love and some basic properties are presented such as: symmetry, dissipation, fixed points (equilibrium), chaotic behaviors and chaotic attractors. Then we construct a stochastic love-triangle model with parametric random excitation due to the complexity and unpredictability of the psychological system, where the randomness is modeled as the standard Gaussian noise. Stochastic dynamics under different three cases of 'Romeo's romantic style', are examined and two kinds of bifurcations versus the noise intensity parameter are observed by the criteria of changes of top Lyapunov exponent and shape of stationary probability density function (PDF) respectively. The phase portraits and time history are carried out to verify the proposed results, and the good agreement can be found. And also the dual roles of the random noise, namely suppressing and inducing chaos are revealed.

  3. Using Random Forest Models to Predict Organizational Violence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levine, Burton; Bobashev, Georgly

    2012-01-01

    We present a methodology to access the proclivity of an organization to commit violence against nongovernment personnel. We fitted a Random Forest model using the Minority at Risk Organizational Behavior (MAROS) dataset. The MAROS data is longitudinal; so, individual observations are not independent. We propose a modification to the standard Random Forest methodology to account for the violation of the independence assumption. We present the results of the model fit, an example of predicting violence for an organization; and finally, we present a summary of the forest in a "meta-tree,"

  4. Optimization of Modulator and Circuits for Low Power Continuous-Time Delta-Sigma ADC

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Marker-Villumsen, Niels; Bruun, Erik

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents a new optimization method for achieving a minimum current consumption in a continuous-time Delta-Sigma analog-to-digital converter (ADC). The method is applied to a continuous-time modulator realised with active-RC integrators and with a folded-cascode operational transconduc...... levels are swept. Based on the results of the circuit analysis, for each modulator combination the summed current consumption of the 1st integrator and quantizer of the ADC is determined. By also sweeping the partitioning of the noise power for the different circuit parts, the optimum modulator...

  5. Factorisations for partition functions of random Hermitian matrix models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jackson, D.M.; Visentin, T.I.

    1996-01-01

    The partition function Z N , for Hermitian-complex matrix models can be expressed as an explicit integral over R N , where N is a positive integer. Such an integral also occurs in connection with random surfaces and models of two dimensional quantum gravity. We show that Z N can be expressed as the product of two partition functions, evaluated at translated arguments, for another model, giving an explicit connection between the two models. We also give an alternative computation of the partition function for the φ 4 -model.The approach is an algebraic one and holds for the functions regarded as formal power series in the appropriate ring. (orig.)

  6. Integration of Continuous-Time Dynamics in a Spiking Neural Network Simulator

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan Hahne

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Contemporary modeling approaches to the dynamics of neural networks include two important classes of models: biologically grounded spiking neuron models and functionally inspired rate-based units. We present a unified simulation framework that supports the combination of the two for multi-scale modeling, enables the quantitative validation of mean-field approaches by spiking network simulations, and provides an increase in reliability by usage of the same simulation code and the same network model specifications for both model classes. While most spiking simulations rely on the communication of discrete events, rate models require time-continuous interactions between neurons. Exploiting the conceptual similarity to the inclusion of gap junctions in spiking network simulations, we arrive at a reference implementation of instantaneous and delayed interactions between rate-based models in a spiking network simulator. The separation of rate dynamics from the general connection and communication infrastructure ensures flexibility of the framework. In addition to the standard implementation we present an iterative approach based on waveform-relaxation techniques to reduce communication and increase performance for large-scale simulations of rate-based models with instantaneous interactions. Finally we demonstrate the broad applicability of the framework by considering various examples from the literature, ranging from random networks to neural-field models. The study provides the prerequisite for interactions between rate-based and spiking models in a joint simulation.

  7. Integration of Continuous-Time Dynamics in a Spiking Neural Network Simulator.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hahne, Jan; Dahmen, David; Schuecker, Jannis; Frommer, Andreas; Bolten, Matthias; Helias, Moritz; Diesmann, Markus

    2017-01-01

    Contemporary modeling approaches to the dynamics of neural networks include two important classes of models: biologically grounded spiking neuron models and functionally inspired rate-based units. We present a unified simulation framework that supports the combination of the two for multi-scale modeling, enables the quantitative validation of mean-field approaches by spiking network simulations, and provides an increase in reliability by usage of the same simulation code and the same network model specifications for both model classes. While most spiking simulations rely on the communication of discrete events, rate models require time-continuous interactions between neurons. Exploiting the conceptual similarity to the inclusion of gap junctions in spiking network simulations, we arrive at a reference implementation of instantaneous and delayed interactions between rate-based models in a spiking network simulator. The separation of rate dynamics from the general connection and communication infrastructure ensures flexibility of the framework. In addition to the standard implementation we present an iterative approach based on waveform-relaxation techniques to reduce communication and increase performance for large-scale simulations of rate-based models with instantaneous interactions. Finally we demonstrate the broad applicability of the framework by considering various examples from the literature, ranging from random networks to neural-field models. The study provides the prerequisite for interactions between rate-based and spiking models in a joint simulation.

  8. Relative entropy and waiting time for continuous-time Markov processes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chazottes, J.R.; Giardinà, C.; Redig, F.H.J.

    2006-01-01

    For discrete-time stochastic processes, there is a close connection between return (resp. waiting) times and entropy (resp. relative entropy). Such a connection cannot be straightforwardly extended to the continuous-time setting. Contrarily to the discrete-time case one needs a reference measure on

  9. Continuous time Black-Scholes equation with transaction costs in subdiffusive fractional Brownian motion regime

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jun; Liang, Jin-Rong; Lv, Long-Jin; Qiu, Wei-Yuan; Ren, Fu-Yao

    2012-02-01

    In this paper, we study the problem of continuous time option pricing with transaction costs by using the homogeneous subdiffusive fractional Brownian motion (HFBM) Z(t)=X(Sα(t)), 0transaction costs of replicating strategies. We also give the total transaction costs.

  10. A sixth-order continuous-time bandpass sigma-delta modulator for digital radio IF

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Engelen, van J.A.E.P.; Plassche, van de R.J.; Stikvoort, E.F.; Venes, A.G.W.

    1999-01-01

    This paper presents a sixth-order continuous-time bandpass sigma-delta modulator (SDM) for analog-to-digital conversion of intermediate-frequency signals. An important aspect in the design of this SDM is the stability analysis using the describing function method. The key to the analysis is the

  11. Computing continuous-time Markov chains as transformers of unbounded observables

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Danos, Vincent; Heindel, Tobias; Garnier, Ilias

    2017-01-01

    The paper studies continuous-time Markov chains (CTMCs) as transformers of real-valued functions on their state space, considered as generalised predicates and called observables. Markov chains are assumed to take values in a countable state space S; observables f: S → ℝ may be unbounded...

  12. Assessment of bidirectional influences between family relationships and adolescent problem behavior: Discrete versus continuous time analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Delsing, M.J.M.H.; Oud, J.H.L.; Bruyn, E.E.J. De

    2005-01-01

    In family research, bidirectional influences between the family and the individual are usually analyzed in discrete time. Results from discrete time analysis, however, have been shown to be highly dependent on the length of the observation interval. Continuous time analysis using stochastic

  13. Measurement of average continuous-time structure of a bond and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The expected continuous-time structure of a bond and bond's interest rate risk in an investment settings was studied. We determined the expected number of years an investor or manager will wait until the stock comes to maturity. The expected principal amount to be paid back per stock at time 't' was determined, while ...

  14. Statistical properties of several models of fractional random point processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bendjaballah, C.

    2011-08-01

    Statistical properties of several models of fractional random point processes have been analyzed from the counting and time interval statistics points of view. Based on the criterion of the reduced variance, it is seen that such processes exhibit nonclassical properties. The conditions for these processes to be treated as conditional Poisson processes are examined. Numerical simulations illustrate part of the theoretical calculations.

  15. Statistical shape model with random walks for inner ear segmentation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pujadas, Esmeralda Ruiz; Kjer, Hans Martin; Piella, Gemma

    2016-01-01

    is required. We propose a new framework for segmentation of micro-CT cochlear images using random walks combined with a statistical shape model (SSM). The SSM allows us to constrain the less contrasted areas and ensures valid inner ear shape outputs. Additionally, a topology preservation method is proposed...

  16. Asthma Self-Management Model: Randomized Controlled Trial

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olivera, Carolina M. X.; Vianna, Elcio Oliveira; Bonizio, Roni C.; de Menezes, Marcelo B.; Ferraz, Erica; Cetlin, Andrea A.; Valdevite, Laura M.; Almeida, Gustavo A.; Araujo, Ana S.; Simoneti, Christian S.; de Freitas, Amanda; Lizzi, Elisangela A.; Borges, Marcos C.; de Freitas, Osvaldo

    2016-01-01

    Information for patients provided by the pharmacist is reflected in adhesion to treatment, clinical results and patient quality of life. The objective of this study was to assess an asthma self-management model for rational medicine use. This was a randomized controlled trial with 60 asthmatic patients assigned to attend five modules presented by…

  17. The dilute random field Ising model by finite cluster approximation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benyoussef, A.; Saber, M.

    1987-09-01

    Using the finite cluster approximation, phase diagrams of bond and site diluted three-dimensional simple cubic Ising models with a random field have been determined. The resulting phase diagrams have the same general features for both bond and site dilution. (author). 7 refs, 4 figs

  18. Learning of couplings for random asymmetric kinetic Ising models revisited: random correlation matrices and learning curves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bachschmid-Romano, Ludovica; Opper, Manfred

    2015-01-01

    We study analytically the performance of a recently proposed algorithm for learning the couplings of a random asymmetric kinetic Ising model from finite length trajectories of the spin dynamics. Our analysis shows the importance of the nontrivial equal time correlations between spins induced by the dynamics for the speed of learning. These correlations become more important as the spin’s stochasticity is decreased. We also analyse the deviation of the estimation error (paper)

  19. Evolution of the concentration PDF in random environments modeled by global random walk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suciu, Nicolae; Vamos, Calin; Attinger, Sabine; Knabner, Peter

    2013-04-01

    The evolution of the probability density function (PDF) of concentrations of chemical species transported in random environments is often modeled by ensembles of notional particles. The particles move in physical space along stochastic-Lagrangian trajectories governed by Ito equations, with drift coefficients given by the local values of the resolved velocity field and diffusion coefficients obtained by stochastic or space-filtering upscaling procedures. A general model for the sub-grid mixing also can be formulated as a system of Ito equations solving for trajectories in the composition space. The PDF is finally estimated by the number of particles in space-concentration control volumes. In spite of their efficiency, Lagrangian approaches suffer from two severe limitations. Since the particle trajectories are constructed sequentially, the demanded computing resources increase linearly with the number of particles. Moreover, the need to gather particles at the center of computational cells to perform the mixing step and to estimate statistical parameters, as well as the interpolation of various terms to particle positions, inevitably produce numerical diffusion in either particle-mesh or grid-free particle methods. To overcome these limitations, we introduce a global random walk method to solve the system of Ito equations in physical and composition spaces, which models the evolution of the random concentration's PDF. The algorithm consists of a superposition on a regular lattice of many weak Euler schemes for the set of Ito equations. Since all particles starting from a site of the space-concentration lattice are spread in a single numerical procedure, one obtains PDF estimates at the lattice sites at computational costs comparable with those for solving the system of Ito equations associated to a single particle. The new method avoids the limitations concerning the number of particles in Lagrangian approaches, completely removes the numerical diffusion, and

  20. Quantum random oracle model for quantum digital signature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shang, Tao; Lei, Qi; Liu, Jianwei

    2016-10-01

    The goal of this work is to provide a general security analysis tool, namely, the quantum random oracle (QRO), for facilitating the security analysis of quantum cryptographic protocols, especially protocols based on quantum one-way function. QRO is used to model quantum one-way function and different queries to QRO are used to model quantum attacks. A typical application of quantum one-way function is the quantum digital signature, whose progress has been hampered by the slow pace of the experimental realization. Alternatively, we use the QRO model to analyze the provable security of a quantum digital signature scheme and elaborate the analysis procedure. The QRO model differs from the prior quantum-accessible random oracle in that it can output quantum states as public keys and give responses to different queries. This tool can be a test bed for the cryptanalysis of more quantum cryptographic protocols based on the quantum one-way function.

  1. Investigating Facebook Groups through a Random Graph Model

    OpenAIRE

    Dinithi Pallegedara; Lei Pan

    2014-01-01

    Facebook disseminates messages for billions of users everyday. Though there are log files stored on central servers, law enforcement agencies outside of the U.S. cannot easily acquire server log files from Facebook. This work models Facebook user groups by using a random graph model. Our aim is to facilitate detectives quickly estimating the size of a Facebook group with which a suspect is involved. We estimate this group size according to the number of immediate friends and the number of ext...

  2. Stochastic geometry, spatial statistics and random fields models and algorithms

    CERN Document Server

    2015-01-01

    Providing a graduate level introduction to various aspects of stochastic geometry, spatial statistics and random fields, this volume places a special emphasis on fundamental classes of models and algorithms as well as on their applications, for example in materials science, biology and genetics. This book has a strong focus on simulations and includes extensive codes in Matlab and R, which are widely used in the mathematical community. It can be regarded as a continuation of the recent volume 2068 of Lecture Notes in Mathematics, where other issues of stochastic geometry, spatial statistics and random fields were considered, with a focus on asymptotic methods.

  3. Simulating intrafraction prostate motion with a random walk model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pommer, Tobias; Oh, Jung Hun; Munck Af Rosenschöld, Per; Deasy, Joseph O

    2017-01-01

    Prostate motion during radiation therapy (ie, intrafraction motion) can cause unwanted loss of radiation dose to the prostate and increased dose to the surrounding organs at risk. A compact but general statistical description of this motion could be useful for simulation of radiation therapy delivery or margin calculations. We investigated whether prostate motion could be modeled with a random walk model. Prostate motion recorded during 548 radiation therapy fractions in 17 patients was analyzed and used for input in a random walk prostate motion model. The recorded motion was categorized on the basis of whether any transient excursions (ie, rapid prostate motion in the anterior and superior direction followed by a return) occurred in the trace and transient motion. This was separately modeled as a large step in the anterior/superior direction followed by a returning large step. Random walk simulations were conducted with and without added artificial transient motion using either motion data from all observed traces or only traces without transient excursions as model input, respectively. A general estimate of motion was derived with reasonable agreement between simulated and observed traces, especially during the first 5 minutes of the excursion-free simulations. Simulated and observed diffusion coefficients agreed within 0.03, 0.2 and 0.3 mm 2 /min in the left/right, superior/inferior, and anterior/posterior directions, respectively. A rapid increase in variance at the start of observed traces was difficult to reproduce and seemed to represent the patient's need to adjust before treatment. This could be estimated somewhat using artificial transient motion. Random walk modeling is feasible and recreated the characteristics of the observed prostate motion. Introducing artificial transient motion did not improve the overall agreement, although the first 30 seconds of the traces were better reproduced. The model provides a simple estimate of prostate motion during

  4. Modeling of chromosome intermingling by partially overlapping uniform random polygons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blackstone, T; Scharein, R; Borgo, B; Varela, R; Diao, Y; Arsuaga, J

    2011-03-01

    During the early phase of the cell cycle the eukaryotic genome is organized into chromosome territories. The geometry of the interface between any two chromosomes remains a matter of debate and may have important functional consequences. The Interchromosomal Network model (introduced by Branco and Pombo) proposes that territories intermingle along their periphery. In order to partially quantify this concept we here investigate the probability that two chromosomes form an unsplittable link. We use the uniform random polygon as a crude model for chromosome territories and we model the interchromosomal network as the common spatial region of two overlapping uniform random polygons. This simple model allows us to derive some rigorous mathematical results as well as to perform computer simulations easily. We find that the probability that one uniform random polygon of length n that partially overlaps a fixed polygon is bounded below by 1 − O(1/√n). We use numerical simulations to estimate the dependence of the linking probability of two uniform random polygons (of lengths n and m, respectively) on the amount of overlapping. The degree of overlapping is parametrized by a parameter [Formula: see text] such that [Formula: see text] indicates no overlapping and [Formula: see text] indicates total overlapping. We propose that this dependence relation may be modeled as f (ε, m, n) = [Formula: see text]. Numerical evidence shows that this model works well when [Formula: see text] is relatively large (ε ≥ 0.5). We then use these results to model the data published by Branco and Pombo and observe that for the amount of overlapping observed experimentally the URPs have a non-zero probability of forming an unsplittable link.

  5. LMI-based stability and performance conditions for continuous-time nonlinear systems in Takagi-Sugeno's form.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lam, H K; Leung, Frank H F

    2007-10-01

    This correspondence presents the stability analysis and performance design of the continuous-time fuzzy-model-based control systems. The idea of the nonparallel-distributed-compensation (non-PDC) control laws is extended to the continuous-time fuzzy-model-based control systems. A nonlinear controller with non-PDC control laws is proposed to stabilize the continuous-time nonlinear systems in Takagi-Sugeno's form. To produce the stability-analysis result, a parameter-dependent Lyapunov function (PDLF) is employed. However, two difficulties are usually encountered: 1) the time-derivative terms produced by the PDLF will complicate the stability analysis and 2) the stability conditions are not in the form of linear-matrix inequalities (LMIs) that aid the design of feedback gains. To tackle the first difficulty, the time-derivative terms are represented by some weighted-sum terms in some existing approaches, which will increase the number of stability conditions significantly. In view of the second difficulty, some positive-definitive terms are added in order to cast the stability conditions into LMIs. In this correspondence, the favorable properties of the membership functions and nonlinear control laws, which allow the introduction of some free matrices, are employed to alleviate the two difficulties while retaining the favorable properties of PDLF-based approach. LMI-based stability conditions are derived to ensure the system stability. Furthermore, based on a common scalar performance index, LMI-based performance conditions are derived to guarantee the system performance. Simulation examples are given to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

  6. A generalized model via random walks for information filtering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ren, Zhuo-Ming; Kong, Yixiu; Shang, Ming-Sheng; Zhang, Yi-Cheng

    2016-08-01

    There could exist a simple general mechanism lurking beneath collaborative filtering and interdisciplinary physics approaches which have been successfully applied to online E-commerce platforms. Motivated by this idea, we propose a generalized model employing the dynamics of the random walk in the bipartite networks. Taking into account the degree information, the proposed generalized model could deduce the collaborative filtering, interdisciplinary physics approaches and even the enormous expansion of them. Furthermore, we analyze the generalized model with single and hybrid of degree information on the process of random walk in bipartite networks, and propose a possible strategy by using the hybrid degree information for different popular objects to toward promising precision of the recommendation.

  7. Creating, generating and comparing random network models with NetworkRandomizer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tosadori, Gabriele; Bestvina, Ivan; Spoto, Fausto; Laudanna, Carlo; Scardoni, Giovanni

    2016-01-01

    Biological networks are becoming a fundamental tool for the investigation of high-throughput data in several fields of biology and biotechnology. With the increasing amount of information, network-based models are gaining more and more interest and new techniques are required in order to mine the information and to validate the results. To fill the validation gap we present an app, for the Cytoscape platform, which aims at creating randomised networks and randomising existing, real networks. Since there is a lack of tools that allow performing such operations, our app aims at enabling researchers to exploit different, well known random network models that could be used as a benchmark for validating real, biological datasets. We also propose a novel methodology for creating random weighted networks, i.e. the multiplication algorithm, starting from real, quantitative data. Finally, the app provides a statistical tool that compares real versus randomly computed attributes, in order to validate the numerical findings. In summary, our app aims at creating a standardised methodology for the validation of the results in the context of the Cytoscape platform.

  8. Twice random, once mixed: applying mixed models to simultaneously analyze random effects of language and participants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janssen, Dirk P

    2012-03-01

    Psychologists, psycholinguists, and other researchers using language stimuli have been struggling for more than 30 years with the problem of how to analyze experimental data that contain two crossed random effects (items and participants). The classical analysis of variance does not apply; alternatives have been proposed but have failed to catch on, and a statistically unsatisfactory procedure of using two approximations (known as F(1) and F(2)) has become the standard. A simple and elegant solution using mixed model analysis has been available for 15 years, and recent improvements in statistical software have made mixed models analysis widely available. The aim of this article is to increase the use of mixed models by giving a concise practical introduction and by giving clear directions for undertaking the analysis in the most popular statistical packages. The article also introduces the DJMIXED: add-on package for SPSS, which makes entering the models and reporting their results as straightforward as possible.

  9. Scaling of coercivity in a 3d random anisotropy model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Proctor, T.C., E-mail: proctortc@gmail.com; Chudnovsky, E.M., E-mail: EUGENE.CHUDNOVSKY@lehman.cuny.edu; Garanin, D.A.

    2015-06-15

    The random-anisotropy Heisenberg model is numerically studied on lattices containing over ten million spins. The study is focused on hysteresis and metastability due to topological defects, and is relevant to magnetic properties of amorphous and sintered magnets. We are interested in the limit when ferromagnetic correlations extend beyond the size of the grain inside which the magnetic anisotropy axes are correlated. In that limit the coercive field computed numerically roughly scales as the fourth power of the random anisotropy strength and as the sixth power of the grain size. Theoretical arguments are presented that provide an explanation of numerical results. Our findings should be helpful for designing amorphous and nanosintered materials with desired magnetic properties. - Highlights: • We study the random-anisotropy model on lattices containing up to ten million spins. • Irreversible behavior due to topological defects (hedgehogs) is elucidated. • Hysteresis loop area scales as the fourth power of the random anisotropy strength. • In nanosintered magnets the coercivity scales as the six power of the grain size.

  10. Modeling random combustion of lycopodium particles and gas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M Bidabadi

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The random modeling combustion of lycopodium particles has been researched by many authors. In this paper, we extend this model and we also generate a different method by analyzing the effect of random distributed sources of combustible mixture. The flame structure is assumed to consist of a preheat-vaporization zone, a reaction zone and finally a post flame zone. We divide the preheat zone to different parts. We assumed that there is different distribution of particles in sections which are really random. Meanwhile, it is presumed that the fuel particles vaporize first to yield gaseous fuel. In other words, most of the fuel particles are vaporized at the end of the preheat zone. It is assumed that the Zel’dovich number is large; therefore, the reaction term in preheat zone is negligible. In this work, the effect of random distribution of particles in the preheat zone on combustion characteristics such as burning velocity, flame temperature for different particle radius is obtained.

  11. Emergent randomness in the Jaynes-Cummings model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garraway, B M; Stenholm, S

    2008-01-01

    We consider the well-known Jaynes-Cummings model and ask if it can display randomness. As a solvable Hamiltonian system, it does not display chaotic behaviour in the ordinary sense. Here, however, we look at the distribution of values taken up during the total time evolution. This evolution is determined by the eigenvalues distributed as the square roots of integers and leads to a seemingly erratic behaviour. That this may display a random Gaussian value distribution is suggested by an exactly provable result by Kac. In order to reach our conclusion we use the Kac model to develop tests for the emergence of a Gaussian. Even if the consequent double limits are difficult to evaluate numerically, we find definite indications that the Jaynes-Cummings case also produces a randomness in its value distributions. Numerical methods do not establish such a result beyond doubt, but our conclusions are definite enough to suggest strongly an unexpected randomness emerging in a dynamic time evolution

  12. A Fay-Herriot Model with Different Random Effect Variances

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Hobza, Tomáš; Morales, D.; Herrador, M.; Esteban, M.D.

    2011-01-01

    Roč. 40, č. 5 (2011), s. 785-797 ISSN 0361-0926 R&D Projects: GA MŠk 1M0572 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : small area estimation * Fay-Herriot model * Linear mixed model * Labor Force Survey Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 0.274, year: 2011 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2011/SI/hobza-a%20fay-herriot%20model%20with%20different%20random%20effect%20variances.pdf

  13. System Level Design of a Continuous-Time Delta-Sigma Modulator for Portable Ultrasound Scanners

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Llimos Muntal, Pere; Færch, Kjartan; Jørgensen, Ivan Harald Holger

    2015-01-01

    In this paper the system level design of a continuous-time ∆Σ modulator for portable ultrasound scanners is presented. The overall required signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) is derived to be 42 dB and the sampling frequency used is 320 MHz for an oversampling ratio of 16. In order to match these requir......, based on high-level VerilogA simulations, the performance of the ∆Σ modulator versus various block performance parameters is presented as trade-off curves. Based on these results, the block specifications are derived.......In this paper the system level design of a continuous-time ∆Σ modulator for portable ultrasound scanners is presented. The overall required signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) is derived to be 42 dB and the sampling frequency used is 320 MHz for an oversampling ratio of 16. In order to match...

  14. Anticontrol of chaos in continuous-time systems via time-delay feedback.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xiao Fan; Chen, Guanrong; Yu, Xinghuo

    2000-12-01

    In this paper, a systematic design approach based on time-delay feedback is developed for anticontrol of chaos in a continuous-time system. This anticontrol method can drive a finite-dimensional, continuous-time, autonomous system from nonchaotic to chaotic, and can also enhance the existing chaos of an originally chaotic system. Asymptotic analysis is used to establish an approximate relationship between a time-delay differential equation and a discrete map. Anticontrol of chaos is then accomplished based on this relationship and the differential-geometry control theory. Several examples are given to verify the effectiveness of the methodology and to illustrate the systematic design procedure. (c) 2000 American Institute of Physics.

  15. Continuous time sigma delta ADC design and non-idealities analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yuan Jun; Chen Zhenhai; Yang Yintang; Zhang Zhaofeng; Wu Jun; Wang Chao; Qian Wenrong

    2011-01-01

    A wide bandwidth continuous time sigma delta ADC is implemented in 130 nm CMOS. A detailed non-idealities analysis (excess loop delay, clock jitter, finite gain and GBW, comparator offset and DAC mismatch) is performed developed in Matlab/Simulink. This design is targeted for wide bandwidth applications such as video or wireless base-stations. Athird-order continuous time sigma delta modulator comprises a third-order RC operational-amplifier-based loop filter and 3-bit internal quantizer operated at 512 MHz clock frequency. The sigma delta ADC achieves 60 dB SNR and 59.3 dB SNDR over a 16-MHz signal band at an OSR of 16. The power consumption of the CT sigma delta modulator is 22 mW from the 1.2-V supply. (semiconductor integrated circuits)

  16. Mean-variance Optimal Reinsurance-investment Strategy in Continuous Time

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daheng Peng

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, Lagrange method is used to solve the continuous-time mean-variance reinsurance-investment problem. Proportional reinsurance, multiple risky assets and risk-free asset are considered synthetically in the optimal strategy for insurers. By solving the backward stochastic differential equation for the Lagrange multiplier, we get the mean-variance optimal reinsurance-investment strategy and its effective frontier in explicit forms.

  17. System of delay difference equations with continuous time with lag function between two known functions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hajnalka Péics

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The asymptotic behavior of solutions of the system of difference equations with continuous time and lag function between two known real functions is studied. The cases when the lag function is between two linear delay functions, between two power delay functions and between two constant delay functions are observed and illustrated by examples. The asymptotic estimates of solutions of the considered system are obtained.

  18. Physical time scale in kinetic Monte Carlo simulations of continuous-time Markov chains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serebrinsky, Santiago A

    2011-03-01

    We rigorously establish a physical time scale for a general class of kinetic Monte Carlo algorithms for the simulation of continuous-time Markov chains. This class of algorithms encompasses rejection-free (or BKL) and rejection (or "standard") algorithms. For rejection algorithms, it was formerly considered that the availability of a physical time scale (instead of Monte Carlo steps) was empirical, at best. Use of Monte Carlo steps as a time unit now becomes completely unnecessary.

  19. Stability Tests of Positive Fractional Continuous-time Linear Systems with Delays

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tadeusz Kaczorek

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Necessary and sufficient conditions for the asymptotic stability of positive fractional continuous-time linear systems with many delays are established. It is shown that: 1 the asymptotic stability of the positive fractional system is independent of their delays, 2 the checking of the asymptotic stability of the positive fractional systems with delays can be reduced to checking of the asymptotic stability of positive standard linear systems without delays.

  20. Global stabilization of linear continuous time-varying systems with bounded controls

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Phat, V.N.

    2004-08-01

    This paper deals with the problem of global stabilization of a class of linear continuous time-varying systems with bounded controls. Based on the controllability of the nominal system, a sufficient condition for the global stabilizability is proposed without solving any Riccati differential equation. Moreover, we give sufficient conditions for the robust stabilizability of perturbation/uncertain linear time-varying systems with bounded controls. (author)

  1. Mean-variance Optimal Reinsurance-investment Strategy in Continuous Time

    OpenAIRE

    Daheng Peng; Fang Zhang

    2017-01-01

    In this paper, Lagrange method is used to solve the continuous-time mean-variance reinsurance-investment problem. Proportional reinsurance, multiple risky assets and risk-free asset are considered synthetically in the optimal strategy for insurers. By solving the backward stochastic differential equation for the Lagrange multiplier, we get the mean-variance optimal reinsurance-investment strategy and its effective frontier in explicit forms.

  2. SIMULATION FROM ENDPOINT-CONDITIONED, CONTINUOUS-TIME MARKOV CHAINS ON A FINITE STATE SPACE, WITH APPLICATIONS TO MOLECULAR EVOLUTION.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hobolth, Asger; Stone, Eric A

    2009-09-01

    Analyses of serially-sampled data often begin with the assumption that the observations represent discrete samples from a latent continuous-time stochastic process. The continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC) is one such generative model whose popularity extends to a variety of disciplines ranging from computational finance to human genetics and genomics. A common theme among these diverse applications is the need to simulate sample paths of a CTMC conditional on realized data that is discretely observed. Here we present a general solution to this sampling problem when the CTMC is defined on a discrete and finite state space. Specifically, we consider the generation of sample paths, including intermediate states and times of transition, from a CTMC whose beginning and ending states are known across a time interval of length T. We first unify the literature through a discussion of the three predominant approaches: (1) modified rejection sampling, (2) direct sampling, and (3) uniformization. We then give analytical results for the complexity and efficiency of each method in terms of the instantaneous transition rate matrix Q of the CTMC, its beginning and ending states, and the length of sampling time T. In doing so, we show that no method dominates the others across all model specifications, and we give explicit proof of which method prevails for any given Q, T, and endpoints. Finally, we introduce and compare three applications of CTMCs to demonstrate the pitfalls of choosing an inefficient sampler.

  3. Investigation of continuous-time quantum walk via modules of Bose-Mesner and Terwilliger algebras

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jafarizadeh, M A; Salimi, S

    2006-01-01

    The continuous-time quantum walk on the underlying graphs of association schemes has been studied, via the algebraic combinatorics structures of association schemes, namely semi-simple modules of their Bose-Mesner and Terwilliger algebras. It is shown that the Terwilliger algebra stratifies the graph into a (d + 1) disjoint union of strata which is different from the stratification based on distance, except for distance regular graphs. In underlying graphs of association schemes, the probability amplitudes and average probabilities are given in terms of dual eigenvalues of association schemes, such that the amplitudes of observing the continuous-time quantum walk on all sites belonging to a given stratum are the same, therefore there are at most (d + 1) different observing probabilities. The importance of association scheme in continuous-time quantum walk is shown by some worked out examples such as arbitrary finite group association schemes followed by symmetric S n , Dihedral D 2m and cyclic groups. At the end it is shown that the highest irreducible representations of Terwilliger algebras pave the way to use the spectral distributions method of Jafarizadeh and Salimi (2005 Preprint quant-ph/0510174) in studying quantum walk on some rather important graphs called distance regular graphs

  4. A new continuous-time formulation for scheduling crude oil operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reddy, P. Chandra Prakash; Karimi, I.A.; Srinivasan, R.

    2004-01-01

    In today's competitive business climate characterized by uncertain oil markets, responding effectively and speedily to market forces, while maintaining reliable operations, is crucial to a refinery's bottom line. Optimal crude oil scheduling enables cost reduction by using cheaper crudes intelligently, minimizing crude changeovers, and avoiding ship demurrage. So far, only discrete-time formulations have stood up to the challenge of this important, nonlinear problem. A continuous-time formulation would portend numerous advantages, however, existing work in this area has just begun to scratch the surface. In this paper, we present the first complete continuous-time mixed integer linear programming (MILP) formulation for the short-term scheduling of operations in a refinery that receives crude from very large crude carriers via a high-volume single buoy mooring pipeline. This novel formulation accounts for real-world operational practices. We use an iterative algorithm to eliminate the crude composition discrepancy that has proven to be the Achilles heel for existing formulations. While it does not guarantee global optimality, the algorithm needs only MILP solutions and obtains excellent maximum-profit schedules for industrial problems with up to 7 days of scheduling horizon. We also report the first comparison of discrete- vs. continuous-time formulations for this complex problem. (Author)

  5. Optimal control of nonlinear continuous-time systems in strict-feedback form.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zargarzadeh, Hassan; Dierks, Travis; Jagannathan, Sarangapani

    2015-10-01

    This paper proposes a novel optimal tracking control scheme for nonlinear continuous-time systems in strict-feedback form with uncertain dynamics. The optimal tracking problem is transformed into an equivalent optimal regulation problem through a feedforward adaptive control input that is generated by modifying the standard backstepping technique. Subsequently, a neural network-based optimal control scheme is introduced to estimate the cost, or value function, over an infinite horizon for the resulting nonlinear continuous-time systems in affine form when the internal dynamics are unknown. The estimated cost function is then used to obtain the optimal feedback control input; therefore, the overall optimal control input for the nonlinear continuous-time system in strict-feedback form includes the feedforward plus the optimal feedback terms. It is shown that the estimated cost function minimizes the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman estimation error in a forward-in-time manner without using any value or policy iterations. Finally, optimal output feedback control is introduced through the design of a suitable observer. Lyapunov theory is utilized to show the overall stability of the proposed schemes without requiring an initial admissible controller. Simulation examples are provided to validate the theoretical results.

  6. Generalization bounds of ERM-based learning processes for continuous-time Markov chains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Chao; Tao, Dacheng

    2012-12-01

    Many existing results on statistical learning theory are based on the assumption that samples are independently and identically distributed (i.i.d.). However, the assumption of i.i.d. samples is not suitable for practical application to problems in which samples are time dependent. In this paper, we are mainly concerned with the empirical risk minimization (ERM) based learning process for time-dependent samples drawn from a continuous-time Markov chain. This learning process covers many kinds of practical applications, e.g., the prediction for a time series and the estimation of channel state information. Thus, it is significant to study its theoretical properties including the generalization bound, the asymptotic convergence, and the rate of convergence. It is noteworthy that, since samples are time dependent in this learning process, the concerns of this paper cannot (at least straightforwardly) be addressed by existing methods developed under the sample i.i.d. assumption. We first develop a deviation inequality for a sequence of time-dependent samples drawn from a continuous-time Markov chain and present a symmetrization inequality for such a sequence. By using the resultant deviation inequality and symmetrization inequality, we then obtain the generalization bounds of the ERM-based learning process for time-dependent samples drawn from a continuous-time Markov chain. Finally, based on the resultant generalization bounds, we analyze the asymptotic convergence and the rate of convergence of the learning process.

  7. A New Continuous-Time Equality-Constrained Optimization to Avoid Singularity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quan, Quan; Cai, Kai-Yuan

    2016-02-01

    In equality-constrained optimization, a standard regularity assumption is often associated with feasible point methods, namely, that the gradients of constraints are linearly independent. In practice, the regularity assumption may be violated. In order to avoid such a singularity, a new projection matrix is proposed based on which a feasible point method to continuous-time, equality-constrained optimization is developed. First, the equality constraint is transformed into a continuous-time dynamical system with solutions that always satisfy the equality constraint. Second, a new projection matrix without singularity is proposed to realize the transformation. An update (or say a controller) is subsequently designed to decrease the objective function along the solutions of the transformed continuous-time dynamical system. The invariance principle is then applied to analyze the behavior of the solution. Furthermore, the proposed method is modified to address cases in which solutions do not satisfy the equality constraint. Finally, the proposed optimization approach is applied to three examples to demonstrate its effectiveness.

  8. Random-growth urban model with geographical fitness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kii, Masanobu; Akimoto, Keigo; Doi, Kenji

    2012-12-01

    This paper formulates a random-growth urban model with a notion of geographical fitness. Using techniques of complex-network theory, we study our system as a type of preferential-attachment model with fitness, and we analyze its macro behavior to clarify the properties of the city-size distributions it predicts. First, restricting the geographical fitness to take positive values and using a continuum approach, we show that the city-size distributions predicted by our model asymptotically approach Pareto distributions with coefficients greater than unity. Then, allowing the geographical fitness to take negative values, we perform local coefficient analysis to show that the predicted city-size distributions can deviate from Pareto distributions, as is often observed in actual city-size distributions. As a result, the model we propose can generate a generic class of city-size distributions, including but not limited to Pareto distributions. For applications to city-population projections, our simple model requires randomness only when new cities are created, not during their subsequent growth. This property leads to smooth trajectories of city population growth, in contrast to other models using Gibrat’s law. In addition, a discrete form of our dynamical equations can be used to estimate past city populations based on present-day data; this fact allows quantitative assessment of the performance of our model. Further study is needed to determine appropriate formulas for the geographical fitness.

  9. Least squares estimation in a simple random coefficient autoregressive model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Johansen, S; Lange, T

    2013-01-01

    The question we discuss is whether a simple random coefficient autoregressive model with infinite variance can create the long swings, or persistence, which are observed in many macroeconomic variables. The model is defined by yt=stρyt−1+εt,t=1,…,n, where st is an i.i.d. binary variable with p...... we prove the curious result that View the MathML source. The proof applies the notion of a tail index of sums of positive random variables with infinite variance to find the order of magnitude of View the MathML source and View the MathML source and hence the limit of View the MathML source...

  10. The transverse spin-1 Ising model with random interactions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bouziane, Touria [Department of Physics, Faculty of Sciences, University of Moulay Ismail, B.P. 11201 Meknes (Morocco)], E-mail: touria582004@yahoo.fr; Saber, Mohammed [Department of Physics, Faculty of Sciences, University of Moulay Ismail, B.P. 11201 Meknes (Morocco); Dpto. Fisica Aplicada I, EUPDS (EUPDS), Plaza Europa, 1, San Sebastian 20018 (Spain)

    2009-01-15

    The phase diagrams of the transverse spin-1 Ising model with random interactions are investigated using a new technique in the effective field theory that employs a probability distribution within the framework of the single-site cluster theory based on the use of exact Ising spin identities. A model is adopted in which the nearest-neighbor exchange couplings are independent random variables distributed according to the law P(J{sub ij})=p{delta}(J{sub ij}-J)+(1-p){delta}(J{sub ij}-{alpha}J). General formulae, applicable to lattices with coordination number N, are given. Numerical results are presented for a simple cubic lattice. The possible reentrant phenomenon displayed by the system due to the competitive effects between exchange interactions occurs for the appropriate range of the parameter {alpha}.

  11. Random unitary evolution model of quantum Darwinism with pure decoherence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balanesković, Nenad

    2015-10-01

    We study the behavior of Quantum Darwinism [W.H. Zurek, Nat. Phys. 5, 181 (2009)] within the iterative, random unitary operations qubit-model of pure decoherence [J. Novotný, G. Alber, I. Jex, New J. Phys. 13, 053052 (2011)]. We conclude that Quantum Darwinism, which describes the quantum mechanical evolution of an open system S from the point of view of its environment E, is not a generic phenomenon, but depends on the specific form of input states and on the type of S-E-interactions. Furthermore, we show that within the random unitary model the concept of Quantum Darwinism enables one to explicitly construct and specify artificial input states of environment E that allow to store information about an open system S of interest with maximal efficiency.

  12. Gravitational lensing by eigenvalue distributions of random matrix models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martínez Alonso, Luis; Medina, Elena

    2018-05-01

    We propose to use eigenvalue densities of unitary random matrix ensembles as mass distributions in gravitational lensing. The corresponding lens equations reduce to algebraic equations in the complex plane which can be treated analytically. We prove that these models can be applied to describe lensing by systems of edge-on galaxies. We illustrate our analysis with the Gaussian and the quartic unitary matrix ensembles.

  13. Random resistor network model of minimal conductivity in graphene.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheianov, Vadim V; Fal'ko, Vladimir I; Altshuler, Boris L; Aleiner, Igor L

    2007-10-26

    Transport in undoped graphene is related to percolating current patterns in the networks of n- and p-type regions reflecting the strong bipolar charge density fluctuations. Finite transparency of the p-n junctions is vital in establishing the macroscopic conductivity. We propose a random resistor network model to analyze scaling dependencies of the conductance on the doping and disorder, the quantum magnetoresistance and the corresponding dephasing rate.

  14. Levy Random Bridges and the Modelling of Financial Information

    OpenAIRE

    Hoyle, Edward; Hughston, Lane P.; Macrina, Andrea

    2009-01-01

    The information-based asset-pricing framework of Brody, Hughston and Macrina (BHM) is extended to include a wider class of models for market information. In the BHM framework, each asset is associated with a collection of random cash flows. The price of the asset is the sum of the discounted conditional expectations of the cash flows. The conditional expectations are taken with respect to a filtration generated by a set of "information processes". The information processes carry imperfect inf...

  15. Social aggregation in pea aphids: experiment and random walk modeling.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christa Nilsen

    Full Text Available From bird flocks to fish schools and ungulate herds to insect swarms, social biological aggregations are found across the natural world. An ongoing challenge in the mathematical modeling of aggregations is to strengthen the connection between models and biological data by quantifying the rules that individuals follow. We model aggregation of the pea aphid, Acyrthosiphon pisum. Specifically, we conduct experiments to track the motion of aphids walking in a featureless circular arena in order to deduce individual-level rules. We observe that each aphid transitions stochastically between a moving and a stationary state. Moving aphids follow a correlated random walk. The probabilities of motion state transitions, as well as the random walk parameters, depend strongly on distance to an aphid's nearest neighbor. For large nearest neighbor distances, when an aphid is essentially isolated, its motion is ballistic with aphids moving faster, turning less, and being less likely to stop. In contrast, for short nearest neighbor distances, aphids move more slowly, turn more, and are more likely to become stationary; this behavior constitutes an aggregation mechanism. From the experimental data, we estimate the state transition probabilities and correlated random walk parameters as a function of nearest neighbor distance. With the individual-level model established, we assess whether it reproduces the macroscopic patterns of movement at the group level. To do so, we consider three distributions, namely distance to nearest neighbor, angle to nearest neighbor, and percentage of population moving at any given time. For each of these three distributions, we compare our experimental data to the output of numerical simulations of our nearest neighbor model, and of a control model in which aphids do not interact socially. Our stochastic, social nearest neighbor model reproduces salient features of the experimental data that are not captured by the control.

  16. Random walks and diffusion on networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masuda, Naoki; Porter, Mason A.; Lambiotte, Renaud

    2017-11-01

    Random walks are ubiquitous in the sciences, and they are interesting from both theoretical and practical perspectives. They are one of the most fundamental types of stochastic processes; can be used to model numerous phenomena, including diffusion, interactions, and opinions among humans and animals; and can be used to extract information about important entities or dense groups of entities in a network. Random walks have been studied for many decades on both regular lattices and (especially in the last couple of decades) on networks with a variety of structures. In the present article, we survey the theory and applications of random walks on networks, restricting ourselves to simple cases of single and non-adaptive random walkers. We distinguish three main types of random walks: discrete-time random walks, node-centric continuous-time random walks, and edge-centric continuous-time random walks. We first briefly survey random walks on a line, and then we consider random walks on various types of networks. We extensively discuss applications of random walks, including ranking of nodes (e.g., PageRank), community detection, respondent-driven sampling, and opinion models such as voter models.

  17. CONSISTENCY UNDER SAMPLING OF EXPONENTIAL RANDOM GRAPH MODELS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shalizi, Cosma Rohilla; Rinaldo, Alessandro

    2013-04-01

    The growing availability of network data and of scientific interest in distributed systems has led to the rapid development of statistical models of network structure. Typically, however, these are models for the entire network, while the data consists only of a sampled sub-network. Parameters for the whole network, which is what is of interest, are estimated by applying the model to the sub-network. This assumes that the model is consistent under sampling , or, in terms of the theory of stochastic processes, that it defines a projective family. Focusing on the popular class of exponential random graph models (ERGMs), we show that this apparently trivial condition is in fact violated by many popular and scientifically appealing models, and that satisfying it drastically limits ERGM's expressive power. These results are actually special cases of more general results about exponential families of dependent random variables, which we also prove. Using such results, we offer easily checked conditions for the consistency of maximum likelihood estimation in ERGMs, and discuss some possible constructive responses.

  18. A continuous time inventory model for a product recovery system with multiple options

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kleber, R.; Minner, S.; Kiesmüller, G.P.

    2002-01-01

    Increasing environmental consciousness, limited availability of natural resources to manufacture new products, recovery quotas to avoid disposal, manufacturers assigned to be responsible for used products, and materials value of components included in returned products are incentives for product

  19. Continuous-Time Models, Realized Volatilities, and Testable Distributional Implications for Daily Stock Returns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Torben G.; Bollerslev, Tim; Frederiksen, Per Houmann

    arrival process. On applying our sequential test procedure to the thirty individual stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average index, the data suggest that it is important to allow for both time-varying diffusive volatility, jumps, and leverage effects in order to satisfactorily describe the daily stock...

  20. High-temperature series expansions for random Potts models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M.Hellmund

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available We discuss recently generated high-temperature series expansions for the free energy and the susceptibility of random-bond q-state Potts models on hypercubic lattices. Using the star-graph expansion technique, quenched disorder averages can be calculated exactly for arbitrary uncorrelated coupling distributions while keeping the disorder strength p as well as the dimension d as symbolic parameters. We present analyses of the new series for the susceptibility of the Ising (q=2 and 4-state Potts model in three dimensions up to the order 19 and 18, respectively, and compare our findings with results from field-theoretical renormalization group studies and Monte Carlo simulations.

  1. On a Stochastic Failure Model under Random Shocks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cha, Ji Hwan

    2013-02-01

    In most conventional settings, the events caused by an external shock are initiated at the moments of its occurrence. In this paper, we study a new classes of shock model, where each shock from a nonhomogeneous Poisson processes can trigger a failure of a system not immediately, as in classical extreme shock models, but with delay of some random time. We derive the corresponding survival and failure rate functions. Furthermore, we study the limiting behaviour of the failure rate function where it is applicable.

  2. Random-Effects Models for Meta-Analytic Structural Equation Modeling: Review, Issues, and Illustrations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheung, Mike W.-L.; Cheung, Shu Fai

    2016-01-01

    Meta-analytic structural equation modeling (MASEM) combines the techniques of meta-analysis and structural equation modeling for the purpose of synthesizing correlation or covariance matrices and fitting structural equation models on the pooled correlation or covariance matrix. Both fixed-effects and random-effects models can be defined in MASEM.…

  3. Discrete random walk models for space-time fractional diffusion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gorenflo, Rudolf; Mainardi, Francesco; Moretti, Daniele; Pagnini, Gianni; Paradisi, Paolo

    2002-01-01

    A physical-mathematical approach to anomalous diffusion may be based on generalized diffusion equations (containing derivatives of fractional order in space or/and time) and related random walk models. By space-time fractional diffusion equation we mean an evolution equation obtained from the standard linear diffusion equation by replacing the second-order space derivative with a Riesz-Feller derivative of order α is part of (0,2] and skewness θ (moduleθ≤{α,2-α}), and the first-order time derivative with a Caputo derivative of order β is part of (0,1]. Such evolution equation implies for the flux a fractional Fick's law which accounts for spatial and temporal non-locality. The fundamental solution (for the Cauchy problem) of the fractional diffusion equation can be interpreted as a probability density evolving in time of a peculiar self-similar stochastic process that we view as a generalized diffusion process. By adopting appropriate finite-difference schemes of solution, we generate models of random walk discrete in space and time suitable for simulating random variables whose spatial probability density evolves in time according to this fractional diffusion equation

  4. Random matrices and the six-vertex model

    CERN Document Server

    Bleher, Pavel

    2013-01-01

    This book provides a detailed description of the Riemann-Hilbert approach (RH approach) to the asymptotic analysis of both continuous and discrete orthogonal polynomials, and applications to random matrix models as well as to the six-vertex model. The RH approach was an important ingredient in the proofs of universality in unitary matrix models. This book gives an introduction to the unitary matrix models and discusses bulk and edge universality. The six-vertex model is an exactly solvable two-dimensional model in statistical physics, and thanks to the Izergin-Korepin formula for the model with domain wall boundary conditions, its partition function matches that of a unitary matrix model with nonpolynomial interaction. The authors introduce in this book the six-vertex model and include a proof of the Izergin-Korepin formula. Using the RH approach, they explicitly calculate the leading and subleading terms in the thermodynamic asymptotic behavior of the partition function of the six-vertex model with domain wa...

  5. Marginal and Random Intercepts Models for Longitudinal Binary Data with Examples from Criminology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long, Jeffrey D.; Loeber, Rolf; Farrington, David P.

    2009-01-01

    Two models for the analysis of longitudinal binary data are discussed: the marginal model and the random intercepts model. In contrast to the linear mixed model (LMM), the two models for binary data are not subsumed under a single hierarchical model. The marginal model provides group-level information whereas the random intercepts model provides…

  6. Parameters and Fractional Differentiation Orders Estimation for Linear Continuous-Time Non-Commensurate Fractional Order Systems

    KAUST Repository

    Belkhatir, Zehor; Laleg-Kirati, Taous-Meriem

    2017-01-01

    This paper proposes a two-stage estimation algorithm to solve the problem of joint estimation of the parameters and the fractional differentiation orders of a linear continuous-time fractional system with non-commensurate orders. The proposed algorithm combines the modulating functions and the first-order Newton methods. Sufficient conditions ensuring the convergence of the method are provided. An error analysis in the discrete case is performed. Moreover, the method is extended to the joint estimation of smooth unknown input and fractional differentiation orders. The performance of the proposed approach is illustrated with different numerical examples. Furthermore, a potential application of the algorithm is proposed which consists in the estimation of the differentiation orders of a fractional neurovascular model along with the neural activity considered as input for this model.

  7. Parameters and Fractional Differentiation Orders Estimation for Linear Continuous-Time Non-Commensurate Fractional Order Systems

    KAUST Repository

    Belkhatir, Zehor

    2017-05-31

    This paper proposes a two-stage estimation algorithm to solve the problem of joint estimation of the parameters and the fractional differentiation orders of a linear continuous-time fractional system with non-commensurate orders. The proposed algorithm combines the modulating functions and the first-order Newton methods. Sufficient conditions ensuring the convergence of the method are provided. An error analysis in the discrete case is performed. Moreover, the method is extended to the joint estimation of smooth unknown input and fractional differentiation orders. The performance of the proposed approach is illustrated with different numerical examples. Furthermore, a potential application of the algorithm is proposed which consists in the estimation of the differentiation orders of a fractional neurovascular model along with the neural activity considered as input for this model.

  8. Universality of correlation functions in random matrix models of QCD

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jackson, A.D.; Sener, M.K.; Verbaarschot, J.J.M.

    1997-01-01

    We demonstrate the universality of the spectral correlation functions of a QCD inspired random matrix model that consists of a random part having the chiral structure of the QCD Dirac operator and a deterministic part which describes a schematic temperature dependence. We calculate the correlation functions analytically using the technique of Itzykson-Zuber integrals for arbitrary complex supermatrices. An alternative exact calculation for arbitrary matrix size is given for the special case of zero temperature, and we reproduce the well-known Laguerre kernel. At finite temperature, the microscopic limit of the correlation functions are calculated in the saddle-point approximation. The main result of this paper is that the microscopic universality of correlation functions is maintained even though unitary invariance is broken by the addition of a deterministic matrix to the ensemble. (orig.)

  9. Nonparametric Estimation of Distributions in Random Effects Models

    KAUST Repository

    Hart, Jeffrey D.

    2011-01-01

    We propose using minimum distance to obtain nonparametric estimates of the distributions of components in random effects models. A main setting considered is equivalent to having a large number of small datasets whose locations, and perhaps scales, vary randomly, but which otherwise have a common distribution. Interest focuses on estimating the distribution that is common to all datasets, knowledge of which is crucial in multiple testing problems where a location/scale invariant test is applied to every small dataset. A detailed algorithm for computing minimum distance estimates is proposed, and the usefulness of our methodology is illustrated by a simulation study and an analysis of microarray data. Supplemental materials for the article, including R-code and a dataset, are available online. © 2011 American Statistical Association.

  10. Prediction of Geological Subsurfaces Based on Gaussian Random Field Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abrahamsen, Petter

    1997-12-31

    During the sixties, random functions became practical tools for predicting ore reserves with associated precision measures in the mining industry. This was the start of the geostatistical methods called kriging. These methods are used, for example, in petroleum exploration. This thesis reviews the possibilities for using Gaussian random functions in modelling of geological subsurfaces. It develops methods for including many sources of information and observations for precise prediction of the depth of geological subsurfaces. The simple properties of Gaussian distributions make it possible to calculate optimal predictors in the mean square sense. This is done in a discussion of kriging predictors. These predictors are then extended to deal with several subsurfaces simultaneously. It is shown how additional velocity observations can be used to improve predictions. The use of gradient data and even higher order derivatives are also considered and gradient data are used in an example. 130 refs., 44 figs., 12 tabs.

  11. On the rate of convergence in von Neumann's ergodic theorem with continuous time

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kachurovskii, A G; Reshetenko, Anna V

    2010-01-01

    The rate of convergence in von Neumann's mean ergodic theorem is studied for continuous time. The condition that the rate of convergence of the ergodic averages be of power-law type is shown to be equivalent to requiring that the spectral measure of the corresponding dynamical system have a power-type singularity at 0. This forces the estimates for the convergence rate in the above ergodic theorem to be necessarily spectral. All the results obtained have obvious exact analogues for wide-sense stationary processes. Bibliography: 7 titles.

  12. Finite-Time Stability and Controller Design of Continuous-Time Polynomial Fuzzy Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaoxing Chen

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Finite-time stability and stabilization problem is first investigated for continuous-time polynomial fuzzy systems. The concept of finite-time stability and stabilization is given for polynomial fuzzy systems based on the idea of classical references. A sum-of-squares- (SOS- based approach is used to obtain the finite-time stability and stabilization conditions, which include some classical results as special cases. The proposed conditions can be solved with the help of powerful Matlab toolbox SOSTOOLS and a semidefinite-program (SDP solver. Finally, two numerical examples and one practical example are employed to illustrate the validity and effectiveness of the provided conditions.

  13. A 10 MHz Bandwidth Continuous-Time Delta-Sigma Modulator for Portable Ultrasound Scanners

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Llimos Muntal, Pere; Jørgensen, Ivan Harald Holger; Bruun, Erik

    2016-01-01

    comparator and a pull-down clocked latch. The feedback signal is generated with voltage DACs based on transmission gates. Using this implementation, a small and low-power solution required for portable ultrasound scanner applications is achieved. The modulator has a bandwidth of 10 MHz with an oversampling......A fourth-order 1-bit continuous-time delta-sigma modulator designed in a 65 nm process for portable ultrasound scanners is presented in this paper. The loop filter consists of RCintegrators, with programmable capacitor arrays and resistors, and the quantizer is implemented with a high-speed clocked...

  14. An Equivalent LMI Representation of Bounded Real Lemma for Continuous-Time Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xie Wei

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract An equivalent linear matrix inequality (LMI representation of bounded real lemma (BRL for linear continuous-time systems is introduced. As to LTI system including polytopic-type uncertainties, by using a parameter-dependent Lyapunov function, there are several LMIs-based formulations for the analysis and synthesis of performance. All of these representations only provide us with different sufficient conditions. Compared with previous methods, this new representation proposed here provides us the possibility to obtain better results. Finally, some numerical examples are illustrated to show the effectiveness of proposed method.

  15. Pervasive randomness in physics: an introduction to its modelling and spectral characterisation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howard, Roy

    2017-10-01

    An introduction to the modelling and spectral characterisation of random phenomena is detailed at a level consistent with a first exposure to the subject at an undergraduate level. A signal framework for defining a random process is provided and this underpins an introduction to common random processes including the Poisson point process, the random walk, the random telegraph signal, shot noise, information signalling random processes, jittered pulse trains, birth-death random processes and Markov chains. An introduction to the spectral characterisation of signals and random processes, via either an energy spectral density or a power spectral density, is detailed. The important case of defining a white noise random process concludes the paper.

  16. Statistical Downscaling of Temperature with the Random Forest Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bo Pang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The issues with downscaling the outputs of a global climate model (GCM to a regional scale that are appropriate to hydrological impact studies are investigated using the random forest (RF model, which has been shown to be superior for large dataset analysis and variable importance evaluation. The RF is proposed for downscaling daily mean temperature in the Pearl River basin in southern China. Four downscaling models were developed and validated by using the observed temperature series from 61 national stations and large-scale predictor variables derived from the National Center for Environmental Prediction–National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis dataset. The proposed RF downscaling model was compared to multiple linear regression, artificial neural network, and support vector machine models. Principal component analysis (PCA and partial correlation analysis (PAR were used in the predictor selection for the other models for a comprehensive study. It was shown that the model efficiency of the RF model was higher than that of the other models according to five selected criteria. By evaluating the predictor importance, the RF could choose the best predictor combination without using PCA and PAR. The results indicate that the RF is a feasible tool for the statistical downscaling of temperature.

  17. Randomizing growing networks with a time-respecting null model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ren, Zhuo-Ming; Mariani, Manuel Sebastian; Zhang, Yi-Cheng; Medo, Matúš

    2018-05-01

    Complex networks are often used to represent systems that are not static but grow with time: People make new friendships, new papers are published and refer to the existing ones, and so forth. To assess the statistical significance of measurements made on such networks, we propose a randomization methodology—a time-respecting null model—that preserves both the network's degree sequence and the time evolution of individual nodes' degree values. By preserving the temporal linking patterns of the analyzed system, the proposed model is able to factor out the effect of the system's temporal patterns on its structure. We apply the model to the citation network of Physical Review scholarly papers and the citation network of US movies. The model reveals that the two data sets are strikingly different with respect to their degree-degree correlations, and we discuss the important implications of this finding on the information provided by paradigmatic node centrality metrics such as indegree and Google's PageRank. The randomization methodology proposed here can be used to assess the significance of any structural property in growing networks, which could bring new insights into the problems where null models play a critical role, such as the detection of communities and network motifs.

  18. Genetic evaluation of European quails by random regression models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Flaviana Miranda Gonçalves

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study was to compare different random regression models, defined from different classes of heterogeneity of variance combined with different Legendre polynomial orders for the estimate of (covariance of quails. The data came from 28,076 observations of 4,507 female meat quails of the LF1 lineage. Quail body weights were determined at birth and 1, 14, 21, 28, 35 and 42 days of age. Six different classes of residual variance were fitted to Legendre polynomial functions (orders ranging from 2 to 6 to determine which model had the best fit to describe the (covariance structures as a function of time. According to the evaluated criteria (AIC, BIC and LRT, the model with six classes of residual variances and of sixth-order Legendre polynomial was the best fit. The estimated additive genetic variance increased from birth to 28 days of age, and dropped slightly from 35 to 42 days. The heritability estimates decreased along the growth curve and changed from 0.51 (1 day to 0.16 (42 days. Animal genetic and permanent environmental correlation estimates between weights and age classes were always high and positive, except for birth weight. The sixth order Legendre polynomial, along with the residual variance divided into six classes was the best fit for the growth rate curve of meat quails; therefore, they should be considered for breeding evaluation processes by random regression models.

  19. Continuous-time digital front-ends for multistandard wireless transmission

    CERN Document Server

    Nuyts, Pieter A J; Dehaene, Wim

    2014-01-01

    This book describes the design of fully digital multistandard transmitter front-ends which can directly drive one or more switching power amplifiers, thus eliminating all other analog components.  After reviewing different architectures, the authors focus on polar architectures using pulse width modulation (PWM), which are entirely based on unclocked delay lines and other continuous-time digital hardware.  As a result, readers are enabled to shift accuracy concerns from the voltage domain to the time domain, to coincide with submicron CMOS technology scaling.  The authors present different architectural options and compare them, based on their effect on the signal and spectrum quality.  Next, a high-level theoretical analysis of two different PWM-based architectures – baseband PWM and RF PWM – is made.  On the circuit level, traditional digital components and design techniques are revisited from the point of view of continuous-time digital circuits.  Important design criteria are identified and diff...

  20. Relay selection in cooperative communication systems over continuous time-varying fading channel

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ke Geng

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we study relay selection under outdated channel state information (CSI in a decode-and-forward (DF cooperative system. Unlike previous researches on cooperative communication under outdated CSI, we consider that the channel varies continuously over time, i.e., the channel not only changes between relay selection and data transmission but also changes during data transmission. Thus the level of accuracy of the CSI used in relay selection degrades with data transmission. We first evaluate the packet error rate (PER of the cooperative system under continuous time-varying fading channel, and find that the PER performance deteriorates more seriously under continuous time-varying fading channel than when the channel is assumed to be constant during data transmission. Then, we propose a repeated relay selection (RRS strategy to improve the PER performance, in which the forwarded data is divided into multiple segments and relay is reselected before the transmission of each segment based on the updated CSI. Finally, we propose a combined relay selection (CRS strategy which takes advantage of three different relay selection strategies to further mitigate the impact of outdated CSI.

  1. Zero temperature landscape of the random sine-Gordon model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sanchez, A.; Bishop, A.R.; Cai, D.

    1997-01-01

    We present a preliminary summary of the zero temperature properties of the two-dimensional random sine-Gordon model of surface growth on disordered substrates. We found that the properties of this model can be accurately computed by using lattices of moderate size as the behavior of the model turns out to be independent of the size above certain length (∼ 128 x 128 lattices). Subsequently, we show that the behavior of the height difference correlation function is of (log r) 2 type up to a certain correlation length (ξ ∼ 20), which rules out predictions of log r behavior for all temperatures obtained by replica-variational techniques. Our results open the way to a better understanding of the complex landscape presented by this system, which has been the subject of very many (contradictory) analysis

  2. Exponential random graph models for networks with community structure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fronczak, Piotr; Fronczak, Agata; Bujok, Maksymilian

    2013-09-01

    Although the community structure organization is an important characteristic of real-world networks, most of the traditional network models fail to reproduce the feature. Therefore, the models are useless as benchmark graphs for testing community detection algorithms. They are also inadequate to predict various properties of real networks. With this paper we intend to fill the gap. We develop an exponential random graph approach to networks with community structure. To this end we mainly built upon the idea of blockmodels. We consider both the classical blockmodel and its degree-corrected counterpart and study many of their properties analytically. We show that in the degree-corrected blockmodel, node degrees display an interesting scaling property, which is reminiscent of what is observed in real-world fractal networks. A short description of Monte Carlo simulations of the models is also given in the hope of being useful to others working in the field.

  3. The Little-Hopfield model on a sparse random graph

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Castillo, I Perez; Skantzos, N S

    2004-01-01

    We study the Hopfield model on a random graph in scaling regimes where the average number of connections per neuron is a finite number and the spin dynamics is governed by a synchronous execution of the microscopic update rule (Little-Hopfield model). We solve this model within replica symmetry, and by using bifurcation analysis we prove that the spin-glass/paramagnetic and the retrieval/paramagnetic transition lines of our phase diagram are identical to those of sequential dynamics. The first-order retrieval/spin-glass transition line follows by direct evaluation of our observables using population dynamics. Within the accuracy of numerical precision and for sufficiently small values of the connectivity parameter we find that this line coincides with the corresponding sequential one. Comparison with simulation experiments shows excellent agreement

  4. Random isotropic one-dimensional XY-model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonçalves, L. L.; Vieira, A. P.

    1998-01-01

    The 1D isotropic s = ½XY-model ( N sites), with random exchange interaction in a transverse random field is considered. The random variables satisfy bimodal quenched distributions. The solution is obtained by using the Jordan-Wigner fermionization and a canonical transformation, reducing the problem to diagonalizing an N × N matrix, corresponding to a system of N noninteracting fermions. The calculations are performed numerically for N = 1000, and the field-induced magnetization at T = 0 is obtained by averaging the results for the different samples. For the dilute case, in the uniform field limit, the magnetization exhibits various discontinuities, which are the consequence of the existence of disconnected finite clusters distributed along the chain. Also in this limit, for finite exchange constants J A and J B, as the probability of J A varies from one to zero, the saturation field is seen to vary from Γ A to Γ B, where Γ A(Γ B) is the value of the saturation field for the pure case with exchange constant equal to J A(J B) .

  5. The random cluster model and a new integration identity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, L C; Wu, F Y

    2005-01-01

    We evaluate the free energy of the random cluster model at its critical point for 0 -1 (√q/2) is a rational number. As a by-product, our consideration leads to a closed-form evaluation of the integral 1/(4π 2 ) ∫ 0 2π dΘ ∫ 0 2π dΦ ln[A+B+C - AcosΘ - BcosΦ - Ccos(Θ+Φ)] = -ln(2S) + (2/π)[Ti 2 (AS) + Ti 2 (BS) + Ti 2 (CS)], which arises in lattice statistics, where A, B, C ≥ 0 and S=1/√(AB + BC + CA)

  6. Universality in random-walk models with birth and death

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bender, C.M.; Boettcher, S.; Meisinger, P.N.

    1995-01-01

    Models of random walks are considered in which walkers are born at one site and die at all other sites. Steady-state distributions of walkers exhibit dimensionally dependent critical behavior as a function of the birth rate. Exact analytical results for a hyperspherical lattice yield a second-order phase transition with a nontrivial critical exponent for all positive dimensions D≠2, 4. Numerical studies of hypercubic and fractal lattices indicate that these exact results are universal. This work elucidates the adsorption transition of polymers at curved interfaces. copyright 1995 The American Physical Society

  7. Permeability of model porous medium formed by random discs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gubaidullin, A. A.; Gubkin, A. S.; Igoshin, D. E.; Ignatev, P. A.

    2018-03-01

    Two-dimension model of the porous medium with skeleton of randomly located overlapping discs is proposed. The geometry and computational grid are built in open package Salome. Flow of Newtonian liquid in longitudinal and transverse directions is calculated and its flow rate is defined. The numerical solution of the Navier-Stokes equations for a given pressure drop at the boundaries of the area is realized in the open package OpenFOAM. Calculated value of flow rate is used for defining of permeability coefficient on the base of Darcy law. For evaluating of representativeness of computational domain the permeability coefficients in longitudinal and transverse directions are compered.

  8. Interpreting parameters in the logistic regression model with random effects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Klaus; Petersen, Jørgen Holm; Budtz-Jørgensen, Esben

    2000-01-01

    interpretation, interval odds ratio, logistic regression, median odds ratio, normally distributed random effects......interpretation, interval odds ratio, logistic regression, median odds ratio, normally distributed random effects...

  9. Geometric Models for Isotropic Random Porous Media: A Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Helmut Hermann

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Models for random porous media are considered. The models are isotropic both from the local and the macroscopic point of view; that is, the pores have spherical shape or their surface shows piecewise spherical curvature, and there is no macroscopic gradient of any geometrical feature. Both closed-pore and open-pore systems are discussed. The Poisson grain model, the model of hard spheres packing, and the penetrable sphere model are used; variable size distribution of the pores is included. A parameter is introduced which controls the degree of open-porosity. Besides systems built up by a single solid phase, models for porous media with the internal surface coated by a second phase are treated. Volume fraction, surface area, and correlation functions are given explicitly where applicable; otherwise numerical methods for determination are described. Effective medium theory is applied to calculate physical properties for the models such as isotropic elastic moduli, thermal and electrical conductivity, and static dielectric constant. The methods presented are exemplified by applications: small-angle scattering of systems showing fractal-like behavior in limited ranges of linear dimension, optimization of nanoporous insulating materials, and improvement of properties of open-pore systems by atomic layer deposition of a second phase on the internal surface.

  10. Rigorously testing multialternative decision field theory against random utility models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berkowitsch, Nicolas A J; Scheibehenne, Benjamin; Rieskamp, Jörg

    2014-06-01

    Cognitive models of decision making aim to explain the process underlying observed choices. Here, we test a sequential sampling model of decision making, multialternative decision field theory (MDFT; Roe, Busemeyer, & Townsend, 2001), on empirical grounds and compare it against 2 established random utility models of choice: the probit and the logit model. Using a within-subject experimental design, participants in 2 studies repeatedly choose among sets of options (consumer products) described on several attributes. The results of Study 1 showed that all models predicted participants' choices equally well. In Study 2, in which the choice sets were explicitly designed to distinguish the models, MDFT had an advantage in predicting the observed choices. Study 2 further revealed the occurrence of multiple context effects within single participants, indicating an interdependent evaluation of choice options and correlations between different context effects. In sum, the results indicate that sequential sampling models can provide relevant insights into the cognitive process underlying preferential choices and thus can lead to better choice predictions. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

  11. The effect of large decoherence on mixing time in continuous-time quantum walks on long-range interacting cycles

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Salimi, S; Radgohar, R, E-mail: shsalimi@uok.ac.i, E-mail: r.radgohar@uok.ac.i [Faculty of Science, Department of Physics, University of Kurdistan, Pasdaran Ave, Sanandaj (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

    2010-01-28

    In this paper, we consider decoherence in continuous-time quantum walks on long-range interacting cycles (LRICs), which are the extensions of the cycle graphs. For this purpose, we use Gurvitz's model and assume that every node is monitored by the corresponding point-contact induced by the decoherence process. Then, we focus on large rates of decoherence and calculate the probability distribution analytically and obtain the lower and upper bounds of the mixing time. Our results prove that the mixing time is proportional to the rate of decoherence and the inverse of the square of the distance parameter (m). This shows that the mixing time decreases with increasing range of interaction. Also, what we obtain for m = 0 is in agreement with Fedichkin, Solenov and Tamon's results [48] for cycle, and we see that the mixing time of CTQWs on cycle improves with adding interacting edges.

  12. Gaussian random bridges and a geometric model for information equilibrium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mengütürk, Levent Ali

    2018-03-01

    The paper introduces a class of conditioned stochastic processes that we call Gaussian random bridges (GRBs) and proves some of their properties. Due to the anticipative representation of any GRB as the sum of a random variable and a Gaussian (T , 0) -bridge, GRBs can model noisy information processes in partially observed systems. In this spirit, we propose an asset pricing model with respect to what we call information equilibrium in a market with multiple sources of information. The idea is to work on a topological manifold endowed with a metric that enables us to systematically determine an equilibrium point of a stochastic system that can be represented by multiple points on that manifold at each fixed time. In doing so, we formulate GRB-based information diversity over a Riemannian manifold and show that it is pinned to zero over the boundary determined by Dirac measures. We then define an influence factor that controls the dominance of an information source in determining the best estimate of a signal in the L2-sense. When there are two sources, this allows us to construct information equilibrium as a functional of a geodesic-valued stochastic process, which is driven by an equilibrium convergence rate representing the signal-to-noise ratio. This leads us to derive price dynamics under what can be considered as an equilibrium probability measure. We also provide a semimartingale representation of Markovian GRBs associated with Gaussian martingales and a non-anticipative representation of fractional Brownian random bridges that can incorporate degrees of information coupling in a given system via the Hurst exponent.

  13. Mixed-integrator-based bi-quad cell for designing a continuous time filter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen Yong; Zhou Yumei

    2010-01-01

    A new mixed-integrator-based bi-quad cell is proposed. An alternative synthesis mechanism of complex poles is proposed compared with source-follower-based bi-quad cells which is designed applying the positive feedback technique. Using the negative feedback technique to combine different integrators, the proposed bi-quad cell synthesizes complex poles for designing a continuous time filter. It exhibits various advantages including compact topology, high gain, no parasitic pole, no CMFB circuit, and high capability. The fourth-order Butterworth lowpass filter using the proposed cells has been fabricated in 0.18 μm CMOS technology. The active area occupied by the filter with test buffer is only 200 x 170 μm 2 . The proposed filter consumes a low power of 201 μW and achieves a 68.5 dB dynamic range. (semiconductor integrated circuits)

  14. New readout integrated circuit using continuous time fixed pattern noise correction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dupont, Bertrand; Chammings, G.; Rapellin, G.; Mandier, C.; Tchagaspanian, M.; Dupont, Benoit; Peizerat, A.; Yon, J. J.

    2008-04-01

    LETI has been involved in IRFPA development since 1978; the design department (LETI/DCIS) has focused its work on new ROIC architecture since many years. The trend is to integrate advanced functions into the CMOS design to achieve cost efficient sensors production. Thermal imaging market is today more and more demanding of systems with instant ON capability and low power consumption. The purpose of this paper is to present the latest developments of fixed pattern noise continuous time correction. Several architectures are proposed, some are based on hardwired digital processing and some are purely analog. Both are using scene based algorithms. Moreover a new method is proposed for simultaneous correction of pixel offsets and sensitivities. In this scope, a new architecture of readout integrated circuit has been implemented; this architecture is developed with 0.18μm CMOS technology. The specification and the application of the ROIC are discussed in details.

  15. A toolbox for safety instrumented system evaluation based on improved continuous-time Markov chain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wardana, Awang N. I.; Kurniady, Rahman; Pambudi, Galih; Purnama, Jaka; Suryopratomo, Kutut

    2017-08-01

    Safety instrumented system (SIS) is designed to restore a plant into a safe condition when pre-hazardous event is occur. It has a vital role especially in process industries. A SIS shall be meet with safety requirement specifications. To confirm it, SIS shall be evaluated. Typically, the evaluation is calculated by hand. This paper presents a toolbox for SIS evaluation. It is developed based on improved continuous-time Markov chain. The toolbox supports to detailed approach of evaluation. This paper also illustrates an industrial application of the toolbox to evaluate arch burner safety system of primary reformer. The results of the case study demonstrates that the toolbox can be used to evaluate industrial SIS in detail and to plan the maintenance strategy.

  16. From Walras’ auctioneer to continuous time double auctions: a general dynamic theory of supply and demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donier, J.; Bouchaud, J.-P.

    2016-12-01

    In standard Walrasian auctions, the price of a good is defined as the point where the supply and demand curves intersect. Since both curves are generically regular, the response to small perturbations is linearly small. However, a crucial ingredient is absent of the theory, namely transactions themselves. What happens after they occur? To answer the question, we develop a dynamic theory for supply and demand based on agents with heterogeneous beliefs. When the inter-auction time is infinitely long, the Walrasian mechanism is recovered. When transactions are allowed to happen in continuous time, a peculiar property emerges: close to the price, supply and demand vanish quadratically, which we empirically confirm on the Bitcoin. This explains why price impact in financial markets is universally observed to behave as the square root of the excess volume. The consequences are important, as they imply that the very fact of clearing the market makes prices hypersensitive to small fluctuations.

  17. Adaptive near-optimal neuro controller for continuous-time nonaffine nonlinear systems with constrained input.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esfandiari, Kasra; Abdollahi, Farzaneh; Talebi, Heidar Ali

    2017-09-01

    In this paper, an identifier-critic structure is introduced to find an online near-optimal controller for continuous-time nonaffine nonlinear systems having saturated control signal. By employing two Neural Networks (NNs), the solution of Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equation associated with the cost function is derived without requiring a priori knowledge about system dynamics. Weights of the identifier and critic NNs are tuned online and simultaneously such that unknown terms are approximated accurately and the control signal is kept between the saturation bounds. The convergence of NNs' weights, identification error, and system states is guaranteed using Lyapunov's direct method. Finally, simulation results are performed on two nonlinear systems to confirm the effectiveness of the proposed control strategy. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Reinforcement learning for adaptive optimal control of unknown continuous-time nonlinear systems with input constraints

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Xiong; Liu, Derong; Wang, Ding

    2014-03-01

    In this paper, an adaptive reinforcement learning-based solution is developed for the infinite-horizon optimal control problem of constrained-input continuous-time nonlinear systems in the presence of nonlinearities with unknown structures. Two different types of neural networks (NNs) are employed to approximate the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation. That is, an recurrent NN is constructed to identify the unknown dynamical system, and two feedforward NNs are used as the actor and the critic to approximate the optimal control and the optimal cost, respectively. Based on this framework, the action NN and the critic NN are tuned simultaneously, without the requirement for the knowledge of system drift dynamics. Moreover, by using Lyapunov's direct method, the weights of the action NN and the critic NN are guaranteed to be uniformly ultimately bounded, while keeping the closed-loop system stable. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the present approach, simulation results are illustrated.

  19. Estimating the continuous-time dynamics of energy and fat metabolism in mice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Juen; Hall, Kevin D

    2009-09-01

    The mouse has become the most popular organism for investigating molecular mechanisms of body weight regulation. But understanding the physiological context by which a molecule exerts its effect on body weight requires knowledge of energy intake, energy expenditure, and fuel selection. Furthermore, measurements of these variables made at an isolated time point cannot explain why body weight has its present value since body weight is determined by the past history of energy and macronutrient imbalance. While food intake and body weight changes can be frequently measured over several weeks (the relevant time scale for mice), correspondingly frequent measurements of energy expenditure and fuel selection are not currently feasible. To address this issue, we developed a mathematical method based on the law of energy conservation that uses the measured time course of body weight and food intake to estimate the underlying continuous-time dynamics of energy output and net fat oxidation. We applied our methodology to male C57BL/6 mice consuming various ad libitum diets during weight gain and loss over several weeks and present the first continuous-time estimates of energy output and net fat oxidation rates underlying the observed body composition changes. We show that transient energy and fat imbalances in the first several days following a diet switch can account for a significant fraction of the total body weight change. We also discovered a time-invariant curve relating body fat and fat-free masses in male C57BL/6 mice, and the shape of this curve determines how diet, fuel selection, and body composition are interrelated.

  20. Stability Analysis of Continuous-Time and Discrete-Time Quaternion-Valued Neural Networks With Linear Threshold Neurons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Xiaofeng; Song, Qiankun; Li, Zhongshan; Zhao, Zhenjiang; Liu, Yurong

    2018-07-01

    This paper addresses the problem of stability for continuous-time and discrete-time quaternion-valued neural networks (QVNNs) with linear threshold neurons. Applying the semidiscretization technique to the continuous-time QVNNs, the discrete-time analogs are obtained, which preserve the dynamical characteristics of their continuous-time counterparts. Via the plural decomposition method of quaternion, homeomorphic mapping theorem, as well as Lyapunov theorem, some sufficient conditions on the existence, uniqueness, and global asymptotical stability of the equilibrium point are derived for the continuous-time QVNNs and their discrete-time analogs, respectively. Furthermore, a uniform sufficient condition on the existence, uniqueness, and global asymptotical stability of the equilibrium point is obtained for both continuous-time QVNNs and their discrete-time version. Finally, two numerical examples are provided to substantiate the effectiveness of the proposed results.

  1. Joint modeling of ChIP-seq data via a Markov random field model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bao, Yanchun; Vinciotti, Veronica; Wit, Ernst; 't Hoen, Peter A C

    Chromatin ImmunoPrecipitation-sequencing (ChIP-seq) experiments have now become routine in biology for the detection of protein-binding sites. In this paper, we present a Markov random field model for the joint analysis of multiple ChIP-seq experiments. The proposed model naturally accounts for

  2. Bayesian Hierarchical Random Effects Models in Forensic Science

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Colin G. G. Aitken

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Statistical modeling of the evaluation of evidence with the use of the likelihood ratio has a long history. It dates from the Dreyfus case at the end of the nineteenth century through the work at Bletchley Park in the Second World War to the present day. The development received a significant boost in 1977 with a seminal work by Dennis Lindley which introduced a Bayesian hierarchical random effects model for the evaluation of evidence with an example of refractive index measurements on fragments of glass. Many models have been developed since then. The methods have now been sufficiently well-developed and have become so widespread that it is timely to try and provide a software package to assist in their implementation. With that in mind, a project (SAILR: Software for the Analysis and Implementation of Likelihood Ratios was funded by the European Network of Forensic Science Institutes through their Monopoly programme to develop a software package for use by forensic scientists world-wide that would assist in the statistical analysis and implementation of the approach based on likelihood ratios. It is the purpose of this document to provide a short review of a small part of this history. The review also provides a background, or landscape, for the development of some of the models within the SAILR package and references to SAILR as made as appropriate.

  3. Bayesian Hierarchical Random Effects Models in Forensic Science.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aitken, Colin G G

    2018-01-01

    Statistical modeling of the evaluation of evidence with the use of the likelihood ratio has a long history. It dates from the Dreyfus case at the end of the nineteenth century through the work at Bletchley Park in the Second World War to the present day. The development received a significant boost in 1977 with a seminal work by Dennis Lindley which introduced a Bayesian hierarchical random effects model for the evaluation of evidence with an example of refractive index measurements on fragments of glass. Many models have been developed since then. The methods have now been sufficiently well-developed and have become so widespread that it is timely to try and provide a software package to assist in their implementation. With that in mind, a project (SAILR: Software for the Analysis and Implementation of Likelihood Ratios) was funded by the European Network of Forensic Science Institutes through their Monopoly programme to develop a software package for use by forensic scientists world-wide that would assist in the statistical analysis and implementation of the approach based on likelihood ratios. It is the purpose of this document to provide a short review of a small part of this history. The review also provides a background, or landscape, for the development of some of the models within the SAILR package and references to SAILR as made as appropriate.

  4. Percolation for a model of statistically inhomogeneous random media

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Quintanilla, J.; Torquato, S.

    1999-01-01

    We study clustering and percolation phenomena for a model of statistically inhomogeneous two-phase random media, including functionally graded materials. This model consists of inhomogeneous fully penetrable (Poisson distributed) disks and can be constructed for any specified variation of volume fraction. We quantify the transition zone in the model, defined by the frontier of the cluster of disks which are connected to the disk-covered portion of the model, by defining the coastline function and correlation functions for the coastline. We find that the behavior of these functions becomes largely independent of the specific choice of grade in volume fraction as the separation of length scales becomes large. We also show that the correlation function behaves in a manner similar to that of fractal Brownian motion. Finally, we study fractal characteristics of the frontier itself and compare to similar properties for two-dimensional percolation on a lattice. In particular, we show that the average location of the frontier appears to be related to the percolation threshold for homogeneous fully penetrable disks. copyright 1999 American Institute of Physics

  5. Hedonic travel cost and random utility models of recreation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pendleton, L. [Univ. of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA (United States); Mendelsohn, R.; Davis, E.W. [Yale Univ., New Haven, CT (United States). School of Forestry and Environmental Studies

    1998-07-09

    Micro-economic theory began as an attempt to describe, predict and value the demand and supply of consumption goods. Quality was largely ignored at first, but economists have started to address quality within the theory of demand and specifically the question of site quality, which is an important component of land management. This paper demonstrates that hedonic and random utility models emanate from the same utility theoretical foundation, although they make different estimation assumptions. Using a theoretically consistent comparison, both approaches are applied to examine the quality of wilderness areas in the Southeastern US. Data were collected on 4778 visits to 46 trails in 20 different forest areas near the Smoky Mountains. Visitor data came from permits and an independent survey. The authors limited the data set to visitors from within 300 miles of the North Carolina and Tennessee border in order to focus the analysis on single purpose trips. When consistently applied, both models lead to results with similar signs but different magnitudes. Because the two models are equally valid, recreation studies should continue to use both models to value site quality. Further, practitioners should be careful not to make simplifying a priori assumptions which limit the effectiveness of both techniques.

  6. Droplet localization in the random XXZ model and its manifestations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elgart, A.; Klein, A.; Stolz, G.

    2018-01-01

    We examine many-body localization properties for the eigenstates that lie in the droplet sector of the random-field spin- \\frac 1 2 XXZ chain. These states satisfy a basic single cluster localization property (SCLP), derived in Elgart et al (2018 J. Funct. Anal. (in press)). This leads to many consequences, including dynamical exponential clustering, non-spreading of information under the time evolution, and a zero velocity Lieb-Robinson bound. Since SCLP is only applicable to the droplet sector, our definitions and proofs do not rely on knowledge of the spectral and dynamical characteristics of the model outside this regime. Rather, to allow for a possible mobility transition, we adapt the notion of restricting the Hamiltonian to an energy window from the single particle setting to the many body context.

  7. [Critical of the additive model of the randomized controlled trial].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boussageon, Rémy; Gueyffier, François; Bejan-Angoulvant, Theodora; Felden-Dominiak, Géraldine

    2008-01-01

    Randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled clinical trials are currently the best way to demonstrate the clinical effectiveness of drugs. Its methodology relies on the method of difference (John Stuart Mill), through which the observed difference between two groups (drug vs placebo) can be attributed to the pharmacological effect of the drug being tested. However, this additive model can be questioned in the event of statistical interactions between the pharmacological and the placebo effects. Evidence in different domains has shown that the placebo effect can influence the effect of the active principle. This article evaluates the methodological, clinical and epistemological consequences of this phenomenon. Topics treated include extrapolating results, accounting for heterogeneous results, demonstrating the existence of several factors in the placebo effect, the necessity to take these factors into account for given symptoms or pathologies, as well as the problem of the "specific" effect.

  8. Stochastic equilibria of an asset pricing model with heterogeneous beliefs and random dividends

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zhu, M.; Wang, D.; Guo, M.

    2011-01-01

    We investigate dynamical properties of a heterogeneous agent model with random dividends and further study the relationship between dynamical properties of the random model and those of the corresponding deterministic skeleton, which is obtained by setting the random dividends as their constant mean

  9. Multiscale model of short cracks in a random polycrystalline aggregate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simonovski, I.; Cizelj, L.; Petric, Z.

    2006-01-01

    A plane-strain finite element crystal plasticity model of microstructurally small stationary crack emanating at a surface grain in a 316L stainless steel is proposed. The model consisting of 212 randomly shaped, sized and oriented grains is loaded monotonically in uniaxial tension to a maximum load of 1.12Rp0.2 (280MPa). The influence that a random grain structure imposes on a Stage I crack is assessed by calculating the crack tip opening (CTOD) and sliding displacements (CTSD) for single crystal as well as for polycrystal models, considering also different crystallographic orientations. In the single crystal case the CTOD and CTSD may differ by more than one order of magnitude. Near the crack tip slip is activated on all the slip planes whereby only two are active in the rest of the model. The maximum CTOD is directly related to the maximal Schmid factors. For the more complex polycrystal cases it is shown that certain crystallographic orientations result in a cluster of soft grains around the crack-containing grain. In these cases the crack tip can become a part of the localized strain, resulting in a large CTOD value. This effect, resulting from the overall grain orientations and sizes, can have a greater impact on the CTOD than the local grain orientation. On the other hand, when a localized soft response is formed away from the crack, the localized strain does not affect the crack tip directly, resulting in a small CTOD value. The resulting difference in CTOD can be up to a factor of 4, depending upon the crystallographic set. Grains as far as 6 times the value of crack length significantly influence that crack tip parameters. It was also found that a larger crack containing grain tends to increase the CTOD. Finally, smaller than expected drop in the CTOD (12.7%) was obtained as the crack approached the grain boundary. This could be due to the assumption of the unchanged crack direction, only monotonic loading and simplified grain boundary modelling. (author)

  10. Method of model reduction and multifidelity models for solute transport in random layered porous media

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xu, Zhijie; Tartakovsky, Alexandre M.

    2017-09-01

    This work presents a hierarchical model for solute transport in bounded layered porous media with random permeability. The model generalizes the Taylor-Aris dispersion theory to stochastic transport in random layered porous media with a known velocity covariance function. In the hierarchical model, we represent (random) concentration in terms of its cross-sectional average and a variation function. We derive a one-dimensional stochastic advection-dispersion-type equation for the average concentration and a stochastic Poisson equation for the variation function, as well as expressions for the effective velocity and dispersion coefficient. We observe that velocity fluctuations enhance dispersion in a non-monotonic fashion: the dispersion initially increases with correlation length λ, reaches a maximum, and decreases to zero at infinity. Maximum enhancement can be obtained at the correlation length about 0.25 the size of the porous media perpendicular to flow.

  11. Measurement model choice influenced randomized controlled trial results.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gorter, Rosalie; Fox, Jean-Paul; Apeldoorn, Adri; Twisk, Jos

    2016-11-01

    In randomized controlled trials (RCTs), outcome variables are often patient-reported outcomes measured with questionnaires. Ideally, all available item information is used for score construction, which requires an item response theory (IRT) measurement model. However, in practice, the classical test theory measurement model (sum scores) is mostly used, and differences between response patterns leading to the same sum score are ignored. The enhanced differentiation between scores with IRT enables more precise estimation of individual trajectories over time and group effects. The objective of this study was to show the advantages of using IRT scores instead of sum scores when analyzing RCTs. Two studies are presented, a real-life RCT, and a simulation study. Both IRT and sum scores are used to measure the construct and are subsequently used as outcomes for effect calculation. The bias in RCT results is conditional on the measurement model that was used to construct the scores. A bias in estimated trend of around one standard deviation was found when sum scores were used, where IRT showed negligible bias. Accurate statistical inferences are made from an RCT study when using IRT to estimate construct measurements. The use of sum scores leads to incorrect RCT results. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Continuous-Time Public Good Contribution Under Uncertainty: A Stochastic Control Approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferrari, Giorgio; Riedel, Frank; Steg, Jan-Henrik

    2017-01-01

    In this paper we study continuous-time stochastic control problems with both monotone and classical controls motivated by the so-called public good contribution problem. That is the problem of n economic agents aiming to maximize their expected utility allocating initial wealth over a given time period between private consumption and irreversible contributions to increase the level of some public good. We investigate the corresponding social planner problem and the case of strategic interaction between the agents, i.e. the public good contribution game. We show existence and uniqueness of the social planner’s optimal policy, we characterize it by necessary and sufficient stochastic Kuhn–Tucker conditions and we provide its expression in terms of the unique optional solution of a stochastic backward equation. Similar stochastic first order conditions prove to be very useful for studying any Nash equilibria of the public good contribution game. In the symmetric case they allow us to prove (qualitative) uniqueness of the Nash equilibrium, which we again construct as the unique optional solution of a stochastic backward equation. We finally also provide a detailed analysis of the so-called free rider effect.

  13. Continuous-Time Public Good Contribution Under Uncertainty: A Stochastic Control Approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ferrari, Giorgio, E-mail: giorgio.ferrari@uni-bielefeld.de; Riedel, Frank, E-mail: frank.riedel@uni-bielefeld.de; Steg, Jan-Henrik, E-mail: jsteg@uni-bielefeld.de [Bielefeld University, Center for Mathematical Economics (Germany)

    2017-06-15

    In this paper we study continuous-time stochastic control problems with both monotone and classical controls motivated by the so-called public good contribution problem. That is the problem of n economic agents aiming to maximize their expected utility allocating initial wealth over a given time period between private consumption and irreversible contributions to increase the level of some public good. We investigate the corresponding social planner problem and the case of strategic interaction between the agents, i.e. the public good contribution game. We show existence and uniqueness of the social planner’s optimal policy, we characterize it by necessary and sufficient stochastic Kuhn–Tucker conditions and we provide its expression in terms of the unique optional solution of a stochastic backward equation. Similar stochastic first order conditions prove to be very useful for studying any Nash equilibria of the public good contribution game. In the symmetric case they allow us to prove (qualitative) uniqueness of the Nash equilibrium, which we again construct as the unique optional solution of a stochastic backward equation. We finally also provide a detailed analysis of the so-called free rider effect.

  14. EVALUATING CONTINUOUS-TIME SLAM USING A PREDEFINED TRAJECTORY PROVIDED BY A ROBOTIC ARM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Koch

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Recently published approaches to SLAM algorithms process laser sensor measurements and output a map as a point cloud of the environment. Often the actual precision of the map remains unclear, since SLAMalgorithms apply local improvements to the resulting map. Unfortunately, it is not trivial to compare the performance of SLAMalgorithms objectively, especially without an accurate ground truth. This paper presents a novel benchmarking technique that allows to compare a precise map generated with an accurate ground truth trajectory to a map with a manipulated trajectory which was distorted by different forms of noise. The accurate ground truth is acquired by mounting a laser scanner on an industrial robotic arm. The robotic arm is moved on a predefined path while the position and orientation of the end-effector tool are monitored. During this process the 2D profile measurements of the laser scanner are recorded in six degrees of freedom and afterwards used to generate a precise point cloud of the test environment. For benchmarking, an offline continuous-time SLAM algorithm is subsequently applied to remove the inserted distortions. Finally, it is shown that the manipulated point cloud is reversible to its previous state and is slightly improved compared to the original version, since small errors that came into account by imprecise assumptions, sensor noise and calibration errors are removed as well.

  15. Low Power Continuous-Time Delta-Sigma ADC with Current Output DAC

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Marker-Villumsen, Niels; Jørgensen, Ivan Harald Holger; Bruun, Erik

    2015-01-01

    The paper presents a continuous-time (CT) DeltaSigma (∆Σ) analog-to-digital converter (ADC) using a current output digital-to-analog converter (DAC) for the feedback. From circuit analysis it is shown that using a current output DAC makes it possible to relax the noise requirements of the 1st...... integrator of the loopfilter, and thereby reduce the current consumption. Furthermore, the noise of the current output DAC being dependent on the ADC input signal level, enabling a dynamic range that is larger than the peak signal-to-noise ratio (SNR). The current output DAC is used in a 3rd order multibit...... CT ∆Σ ADC for audio applications, designed in a 0.18 µm CMOS process, with active-RC integrators, a 7-level Flash ADC quantizer and current output DAC for the feedback. From simulations the ADC achieves a dynamic range of 95.0 dB in the audio band, with a current consumption of 284 µA for a 1.7 V...

  16. A Continuous-Time Delta-Sigma ADC for Portable Ultrasound Scanners

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Llimos Muntal, Pere; Jørgensen, Ivan Harald Holger; Bruun, Erik

    2017-01-01

    A fully differential fourth-order 1-bit continuous-time delta-sigma ADC designed in a 65nm process for portable ultrasound scanners is presented in this paper. The circuit design, implementation and measurements on the fabricated die are shown. The loop filter consists of RC-integrators, programmable...... capacitor arrays, resistors and voltage feedback DACs. The quantizer contains a pulse generator, a high-speed clocked comparator and a pull-down clocked latch to ensure constant delay in the feedback loop. Using this implementation, a small and low-power solution required for portable ultrasound scanner...... applications is achieved. The converter has a supply voltage of 1.2V, a bandwidth of 10MHz and an oversampling ratio of 16 leading to an operating frequency of 320MHz. The design occupies a die area of 0.0175mm2. Simulations with extracted parasitics show a SNR of 45.2dB and a current consumption of 489 µ...

  17. A low power CMOS 3.3 Gbps continuous-time adaptive equalizer for serial link

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ju Hao; Zhou Yumei; Zhao Jianzhong

    2011-01-01

    This paper describes using a high-speed continuous-time analog adaptive equalizer as the front-end of a receiver for a high-speed serial interface, which is compliant with many serial communication specifications such as USB2.0, PCI-E2.0 and Rapid IO. The low and high frequency loops are merged to decrease the effect of delay between the two paths, in addition, the infinite input impedance facilitates the cascade stages in order to improve the high frequency boosting gain. The implemented circuit architecture could facilitate the wide frequency range from 1 to 3.3 Gbps with different length FR4-PCB traces, which brings as much as 25 dB loss. The replica control circuits are injected to provide a convenient way to regulate common-mode voltage for full differential operation. In addition, AC coupling is adopted to suppress the common input from the forward stage. A prototype chip was fabricated in 0.18-μm 1P6M mixed-signal CMOS technology. The actual area is 0.6 x 0.57 mm 2 and the analog equalizer operates up to 3.3 Gbps over FR4-PCB trace with 25 dB loss. The overall power dissipation is approximately 23.4 mW. (semiconductor integrated circuits)

  18. A low power CMOS 3.3 Gbps continuous-time adaptive equalizer for serial link

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hao, Ju; Yumei, Zhou; Jianzhong, Zhao

    2011-09-01

    This paper describes using a high-speed continuous-time analog adaptive equalizer as the front-end of a receiver for a high-speed serial interface, which is compliant with many serial communication specifications such as USB2.0, PCI-E2.0 and Rapid IO. The low and high frequency loops are merged to decrease the effect of delay between the two paths, in addition, the infinite input impedance facilitates the cascade stages in order to improve the high frequency boosting gain. The implemented circuit architecture could facilitate the wide frequency range from 1 to 3.3 Gbps with different length FR4-PCB traces, which brings as much as 25 dB loss. The replica control circuits are injected to provide a convenient way to regulate common-mode voltage for full differential operation. In addition, AC coupling is adopted to suppress the common input from the forward stage. A prototype chip was fabricated in 0.18-μm 1P6M mixed-signal CMOS technology. The actual area is 0.6 × 0.57 mm2 and the analog equalizer operates up to 3.3 Gbps over FR4-PCB trace with 25 dB loss. The overall power dissipation is approximately 23.4 mW.

  19. Evaluating Continuous-Time Slam Using a Predefined Trajectory Provided by a Robotic Arm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koch, B.; Leblebici, R.; Martell, A.; Jörissen, S.; Schilling, K.; Nüchter, A.

    2017-09-01

    Recently published approaches to SLAM algorithms process laser sensor measurements and output a map as a point cloud of the environment. Often the actual precision of the map remains unclear, since SLAMalgorithms apply local improvements to the resulting map. Unfortunately, it is not trivial to compare the performance of SLAMalgorithms objectively, especially without an accurate ground truth. This paper presents a novel benchmarking technique that allows to compare a precise map generated with an accurate ground truth trajectory to a map with a manipulated trajectory which was distorted by different forms of noise. The accurate ground truth is acquired by mounting a laser scanner on an industrial robotic arm. The robotic arm is moved on a predefined path while the position and orientation of the end-effector tool are monitored. During this process the 2D profile measurements of the laser scanner are recorded in six degrees of freedom and afterwards used to generate a precise point cloud of the test environment. For benchmarking, an offline continuous-time SLAM algorithm is subsequently applied to remove the inserted distortions. Finally, it is shown that the manipulated point cloud is reversible to its previous state and is slightly improved compared to the original version, since small errors that came into account by imprecise assumptions, sensor noise and calibration errors are removed as well.

  20. Online adaptive optimal control for continuous-time nonlinear systems with completely unknown dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lv, Yongfeng; Na, Jing; Yang, Qinmin; Wu, Xing; Guo, Yu

    2016-01-01

    An online adaptive optimal control is proposed for continuous-time nonlinear systems with completely unknown dynamics, which is achieved by developing a novel identifier-critic-based approximate dynamic programming algorithm with a dual neural network (NN) approximation structure. First, an adaptive NN identifier is designed to obviate the requirement of complete knowledge of system dynamics, and a critic NN is employed to approximate the optimal value function. Then, the optimal control law is computed based on the information from the identifier NN and the critic NN, so that the actor NN is not needed. In particular, a novel adaptive law design method with the parameter estimation error is proposed to online update the weights of both identifier NN and critic NN simultaneously, which converge to small neighbourhoods around their ideal values. The closed-loop system stability and the convergence to small vicinity around the optimal solution are all proved by means of the Lyapunov theory. The proposed adaptation algorithm is also improved to achieve finite-time convergence of the NN weights. Finally, simulation results are provided to exemplify the efficacy of the proposed methods.

  1. A policy iteration approach to online optimal control of continuous-time constrained-input systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Modares, Hamidreza; Naghibi Sistani, Mohammad-Bagher; Lewis, Frank L

    2013-09-01

    This paper is an effort towards developing an online learning algorithm to find the optimal control solution for continuous-time (CT) systems subject to input constraints. The proposed method is based on the policy iteration (PI) technique which has recently evolved as a major technique for solving optimal control problems. Although a number of online PI algorithms have been developed for CT systems, none of them take into account the input constraints caused by actuator saturation. In practice, however, ignoring these constraints leads to performance degradation or even system instability. In this paper, to deal with the input constraints, a suitable nonquadratic functional is employed to encode the constraints into the optimization formulation. Then, the proposed PI algorithm is implemented on an actor-critic structure to solve the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equation associated with this nonquadratic cost functional in an online fashion. That is, two coupled neural network (NN) approximators, namely an actor and a critic are tuned online and simultaneously for approximating the associated HJB solution and computing the optimal control policy. The critic is used to evaluate the cost associated with the current policy, while the actor is used to find an improved policy based on information provided by the critic. Convergence to a close approximation of the HJB solution as well as stability of the proposed feedback control law are shown. Simulation results of the proposed method on a nonlinear CT system illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach. Copyright © 2013 ISA. All rights reserved.

  2. Discriminative Random Field Models for Subsurface Contamination Uncertainty Quantification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arshadi, M.; Abriola, L. M.; Miller, E. L.; De Paolis Kaluza, C.

    2017-12-01

    Application of flow and transport simulators for prediction of the release, entrapment, and persistence of dense non-aqueous phase liquids (DNAPLs) and associated contaminant plumes is a computationally intensive process that requires specification of a large number of material properties and hydrologic/chemical parameters. Given its computational burden, this direct simulation approach is particularly ill-suited for quantifying both the expected performance and uncertainty associated with candidate remediation strategies under real field conditions. Prediction uncertainties primarily arise from limited information about contaminant mass distributions, as well as the spatial distribution of subsurface hydrologic properties. Application of direct simulation to quantify uncertainty would, thus, typically require simulating multiphase flow and transport for a large number of permeability and release scenarios to collect statistics associated with remedial effectiveness, a computationally prohibitive process. The primary objective of this work is to develop and demonstrate a methodology that employs measured field data to produce equi-probable stochastic representations of a subsurface source zone that capture the spatial distribution and uncertainty associated with key features that control remediation performance (i.e., permeability and contamination mass). Here we employ probabilistic models known as discriminative random fields (DRFs) to synthesize stochastic realizations of initial mass distributions consistent with known, and typically limited, site characterization data. Using a limited number of full scale simulations as training data, a statistical model is developed for predicting the distribution of contaminant mass (e.g., DNAPL saturation and aqueous concentration) across a heterogeneous domain. Monte-Carlo sampling methods are then employed, in conjunction with the trained statistical model, to generate realizations conditioned on measured borehole data

  3. Models for randomly distributed nanoscopic domains on spherical vesicles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anghel, Vinicius N. P.; Bolmatov, Dima; Katsaras, John

    2018-06-01

    The existence of lipid domains in the plasma membrane of biological systems has proven controversial, primarily due to their nanoscopic size—a length scale difficult to interrogate with most commonly used experimental techniques. Scattering techniques have recently proven capable of studying nanoscopic lipid domains populating spherical vesicles. However, the development of analytical methods able of predicting and analyzing domain pair correlations from such experiments has not kept pace. Here, we developed models for the random distribution of monodisperse, circular nanoscopic domains averaged on the surface of a spherical vesicle. Specifically, the models take into account (i) intradomain correlations corresponding to form factors and interdomain correlations corresponding to pair distribution functions, and (ii) the analytical computation of interdomain correlations for cases of two and three domains on a spherical vesicle. In the case of more than three domains, these correlations are treated either by Monte Carlo simulations or by spherical analogs of the Ornstein-Zernike and Percus-Yevick (PY) equations. Importantly, the spherical analog of the PY equation works best in the case of nanoscopic size domains, a length scale that is mostly inaccessible by experimental approaches such as, for example, fluorescent techniques and optical microscopies. The analytical form factors and structure factors of nanoscopic domains populating a spherical vesicle provide a new and important framework for the quantitative analysis of experimental data from commonly studied phase-separated vesicles used in a wide range of biophysical studies.

  4. A continuous time-resolved measure decoded from EEG oscillatory activity predicts working memory task performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Astrand, Elaine

    2018-06-01

    Working memory (WM), crucial for successful behavioral performance in most of our everyday activities, holds a central role in goal-directed behavior. As task demands increase, inducing higher WM load, maintaining successful behavioral performance requires the brain to work at the higher end of its capacity. Because it is depending on both external and internal factors, individual WM load likely varies in a continuous fashion. The feasibility to extract such a continuous measure in time that correlates to behavioral performance during a working memory task remains unsolved. Multivariate pattern decoding was used to test whether a decoder constructed from two discrete levels of WM load can generalize to produce a continuous measure that predicts task performance. Specifically, a linear regression with L2-regularization was chosen with input features from EEG oscillatory activity recorded from healthy participants while performing the n-back task, [Formula: see text]. The feasibility to extract a continuous time-resolved measure that correlates positively to trial-by-trial working memory task performance is demonstrated (r  =  0.47, p  performance before action (r  =  0.49, p  <  0.05). We show that the extracted continuous measure enables to study the temporal dynamics of the complex activation pattern of WM encoding during the n-back task. Specifically, temporally precise contributions of different spectral features are observed which extends previous findings of traditional univariate approaches. These results constitute an important contribution towards a wide range of applications in the field of cognitive brain-machine interfaces. Monitoring mental processes related to attention and WM load to reduce the risk of committing errors in high-risk environments could potentially prevent many devastating consequences or using the continuous measure as neurofeedback opens up new possibilities to develop novel rehabilitation techniques for

  5. GPU-accelerated algorithms for many-particle continuous-time quantum walks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piccinini, Enrico; Benedetti, Claudia; Siloi, Ilaria; Paris, Matteo G. A.; Bordone, Paolo

    2017-06-01

    Many-particle continuous-time quantum walks (CTQWs) represent a resource for several tasks in quantum technology, including quantum search algorithms and universal quantum computation. In order to design and implement CTQWs in a realistic scenario, one needs effective simulation tools for Hamiltonians that take into account static noise and fluctuations in the lattice, i.e. Hamiltonians containing stochastic terms. To this aim, we suggest a parallel algorithm based on the Taylor series expansion of the evolution operator, and compare its performances with those of algorithms based on the exact diagonalization of the Hamiltonian or a 4th order Runge-Kutta integration. We prove that both Taylor-series expansion and Runge-Kutta algorithms are reliable and have a low computational cost, the Taylor-series expansion showing the additional advantage of a memory allocation not depending on the precision of calculation. Both algorithms are also highly parallelizable within the SIMT paradigm, and are thus suitable for GPGPU computing. In turn, we have benchmarked 4 NVIDIA GPUs and 3 quad-core Intel CPUs for a 2-particle system over lattices of increasing dimension, showing that the speedup provided by GPU computing, with respect to the OPENMP parallelization, lies in the range between 8x and (more than) 20x, depending on the frequency of post-processing. GPU-accelerated codes thus allow one to overcome concerns about the execution time, and make it possible simulations with many interacting particles on large lattices, with the only limit of the memory available on the device.

  6. Premium Pricing of Liability Insurance Using Random Sum Model

    OpenAIRE

    Kartikasari, Mujiati Dwi

    2017-01-01

    Premium pricing is one of important activities in insurance. Nonlife insurance premium is calculated from expected value of historical data claims. The historical data claims are collected so that it forms a sum of independent random number which is called random sum. In premium pricing using random sum, claim frequency distribution and claim severity distribution are combined. The combination of these distributions is called compound distribution. By using liability claim insurance data, we ...

  7. Critical Behavior of the Annealed Ising Model on Random Regular Graphs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Can, Van Hao

    2017-11-01

    In Giardinà et al. (ALEA Lat Am J Probab Math Stat 13(1):121-161, 2016), the authors have defined an annealed Ising model on random graphs and proved limit theorems for the magnetization of this model on some random graphs including random 2-regular graphs. Then in Can (Annealed limit theorems for the Ising model on random regular graphs, arXiv:1701.08639, 2017), we generalized their results to the class of all random regular graphs. In this paper, we study the critical behavior of this model. In particular, we determine the critical exponents and prove a non standard limit theorem stating that the magnetization scaled by n^{3/4} converges to a specific random variable, with n the number of vertices of random regular graphs.

  8. Annealed central limit theorems for the ising model on random graphs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Giardinà, C.; Giberti, C.; van der Hofstad, R.W.; Prioriello, M.L.

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to prove central limit theorems with respect to the annealed measure for the magnetization rescaled by √N of Ising models on random graphs. More precisely, we consider the general rank-1 inhomogeneous random graph (or generalized random graph), the 2-regular configuration

  9. Force Limited Random Vibration Test of TESS Camera Mass Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karlicek, Alexandra; Hwang, James Ho-Jin; Rey, Justin J.

    2015-01-01

    The Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) is a spaceborne instrument consisting of four wide field-of-view-CCD cameras dedicated to the discovery of exoplanets around the brightest stars. As part of the environmental testing campaign, force limiting was used to simulate a realistic random vibration launch environment. While the force limit vibration test method is a standard approach used at multiple institutions including Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), European Space Research and Technology Center (ESTEC), and Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA), it is still difficult to find an actual implementation process in the literature. This paper describes the step-by-step process on how the force limit method was developed and applied on the TESS camera mass model. The process description includes the design of special fixtures to mount the test article for properly installing force transducers, development of the force spectral density using the semi-empirical method, estimation of the fuzzy factor (C2) based on the mass ratio between the supporting structure and the test article, subsequent validating of the C2 factor during the vibration test, and calculation of the C.G. accelerations using the Root Mean Square (RMS) reaction force in the spectral domain and the peak reaction force in the time domain.

  10. 93-106, 2015 93 Multilevel random effect and marginal models

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Multilevel random effect and marginal models for longitudinal data ... and random effect models that take the correlation among measurements of the same subject ... comparing the level of redness, pain and irritability ... clinical trial evaluating the safety profile of a new .... likelihood-based methods to compare models and.

  11. A continuous time-resolved measure decoded from EEG oscillatory activity predicts working memory task performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Astrand, Elaine

    2018-06-01

    Objective. Working memory (WM), crucial for successful behavioral performance in most of our everyday activities, holds a central role in goal-directed behavior. As task demands increase, inducing higher WM load, maintaining successful behavioral performance requires the brain to work at the higher end of its capacity. Because it is depending on both external and internal factors, individual WM load likely varies in a continuous fashion. The feasibility to extract such a continuous measure in time that correlates to behavioral performance during a working memory task remains unsolved. Approach. Multivariate pattern decoding was used to test whether a decoder constructed from two discrete levels of WM load can generalize to produce a continuous measure that predicts task performance. Specifically, a linear regression with L2-regularization was chosen with input features from EEG oscillatory activity recorded from healthy participants while performing the n-back task, n\\in [1,2] . Main results. The feasibility to extract a continuous time-resolved measure that correlates positively to trial-by-trial working memory task performance is demonstrated (r  =  0.47, p  <  0.05). It is furthermore shown that this measure allows to predict task performance before action (r  =  0.49, p  <  0.05). We show that the extracted continuous measure enables to study the temporal dynamics of the complex activation pattern of WM encoding during the n-back task. Specifically, temporally precise contributions of different spectral features are observed which extends previous findings of traditional univariate approaches. Significance. These results constitute an important contribution towards a wide range of applications in the field of cognitive brain–machine interfaces. Monitoring mental processes related to attention and WM load to reduce the risk of committing errors in high-risk environments could potentially prevent many devastating consequences or

  12. MODELING URBAN DYNAMICS USING RANDOM FOREST: IMPLEMENTING ROC AND TOC FOR MODEL EVALUATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Ahmadlou

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The importance of spatial accuracy of land use/cover change maps necessitates the use of high performance models. To reach this goal, calibrating machine learning (ML approaches to model land use/cover conversions have received increasing interest among the scholars. This originates from the strength of these techniques as they powerfully account for the complex relationships underlying urban dynamics. Compared to other ML techniques, random forest has rarely been used for modeling urban growth. This paper, drawing on information from the multi-temporal Landsat satellite images of 1985, 2000 and 2015, calibrates a random forest regression (RFR model to quantify the variable importance and simulation of urban change spatial patterns. The results and performance of RFR model were evaluated using two complementary tools, relative operating characteristics (ROC and total operating characteristics (TOC, by overlaying the map of observed change and the modeled suitability map for land use change (error map. The suitability map produced by RFR model showed 82.48% area under curve for the ROC model which indicates a very good performance and highlights its appropriateness for simulating urban growth.

  13. Random effects coefficient of determination for mixed and meta-analysis models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demidenko, Eugene; Sargent, James; Onega, Tracy

    2012-01-01

    The key feature of a mixed model is the presence of random effects. We have developed a coefficient, called the random effects coefficient of determination, [Formula: see text], that estimates the proportion of the conditional variance of the dependent variable explained by random effects. This coefficient takes values from 0 to 1 and indicates how strong the random effects are. The difference from the earlier suggested fixed effects coefficient of determination is emphasized. If [Formula: see text] is close to 0, there is weak support for random effects in the model because the reduction of the variance of the dependent variable due to random effects is small; consequently, random effects may be ignored and the model simplifies to standard linear regression. The value of [Formula: see text] apart from 0 indicates the evidence of the variance reduction in support of the mixed model. If random effects coefficient of determination is close to 1 the variance of random effects is very large and random effects turn into free fixed effects-the model can be estimated using the dummy variable approach. We derive explicit formulas for [Formula: see text] in three special cases: the random intercept model, the growth curve model, and meta-analysis model. Theoretical results are illustrated with three mixed model examples: (1) travel time to the nearest cancer center for women with breast cancer in the U.S., (2) cumulative time watching alcohol related scenes in movies among young U.S. teens, as a risk factor for early drinking onset, and (3) the classic example of the meta-analysis model for combination of 13 studies on tuberculosis vaccine.

  14. Modeling and optimizing of the random atomic spin gyroscope drift based on the atomic spin gyroscope

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Quan, Wei; Lv, Lin, E-mail: lvlinlch1990@163.com; Liu, Baiqi [School of Instrument Science and Opto-Electronics Engineering, Beihang University, Beijing 100191 (China)

    2014-11-15

    In order to improve the atom spin gyroscope's operational accuracy and compensate the random error caused by the nonlinear and weak-stability characteristic of the random atomic spin gyroscope (ASG) drift, the hybrid random drift error model based on autoregressive (AR) and genetic programming (GP) + genetic algorithm (GA) technique is established. The time series of random ASG drift is taken as the study object. The time series of random ASG drift is acquired by analyzing and preprocessing the measured data of ASG. The linear section model is established based on AR technique. After that, the nonlinear section model is built based on GP technique and GA is used to optimize the coefficients of the mathematic expression acquired by GP in order to obtain a more accurate model. The simulation result indicates that this hybrid model can effectively reflect the characteristics of the ASG's random drift. The square error of the ASG's random drift is reduced by 92.40%. Comparing with the AR technique and the GP + GA technique, the random drift is reduced by 9.34% and 5.06%, respectively. The hybrid modeling method can effectively compensate the ASG's random drift and improve the stability of the system.

  15. Simulating ensembles of nonlinear continuous time dynamical systems via active ultra wideband wireless network

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dmitriev, Alexander S.; Yemelyanov, Ruslan Yu. [V.A. Kotelnikov Institute of Radio Engineering and Electronics of the RAS Mokhovaya 11-7, Moscow, 125009 (Russian Federation); Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology (State University) 9 Institutskiy per., Dolgoprudny, Moscow, 141700 (Russian Federation); Gerasimov, Mark Yu. [V.A. Kotelnikov Institute of Radio Engineering and Electronics of the RAS Mokhovaya 11-7, Moscow, 125009 (Russian Federation); Itskov, Vadim V. [Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology (State University) 9 Institutskiy per., Dolgoprudny, Moscow, 141700 (Russian Federation)

    2016-06-08

    The paper deals with a new multi-element processor platform assigned for modelling the behaviour of interacting dynamical systems, i.e., active wireless network. Experimentally, this ensemble is implemented in an active network, the active nodes of which include direct chaotic transceivers and special actuator boards containing microcontrollers for modelling the dynamical systems and an information display unit (colored LEDs). The modelling technique and experimental results are described and analyzed.

  16. Recent developments in exponential random graph (p*) models for social networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Robins, Garry; Snijders, Tom; Wang, Peng; Handcock, Mark; Pattison, Philippa

    This article reviews new specifications for exponential random graph models proposed by Snijders et al. [Snijders, T.A.B., Pattison, P., Robins, G.L., Handcock, M., 2006. New specifications for exponential random graph models. Sociological Methodology] and demonstrates their improvement over

  17. The reverse effects of random perturbation on discrete systems for single and multiple population models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang, Li; Tang, Sanyi

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • The discrete single species and multiple species models with random perturbation are proposed. • The complex dynamics and interesting bifurcation behavior have been investigated. • The reverse effects of random perturbation on discrete systems have been discussed and revealed. • The main results can be applied for pest control and resources management. - Abstract: The natural species are likely to present several interesting and complex phenomena under random perturbations, which have been confirmed by simple mathematical models. The important questions are: how the random perturbations influence the dynamics of the discrete population models with multiple steady states or multiple species interactions? and is there any different effects for single species and multiple species models with random perturbation? To address those interesting questions, we have proposed the discrete single species model with two stable equilibria and the host-parasitoid model with Holling type functional response functions to address how the random perturbation affects the dynamics. The main results indicate that the random perturbation does not change the number of blurred orbits of the single species model with two stable steady states compared with results for the classical Ricker model with same random perturbation, but it can strength the stability. However, extensive numerical investigations depict that the random perturbation does not influence the complexities of the host-parasitoid models compared with the results for the models without perturbation, while it does increase the period of periodic orbits doubly. All those confirm that the random perturbation has a reverse effect on the dynamics of the discrete single and multiple population models, which could be applied in reality including pest control and resources management.

  18. Bayesian analysis for exponential random graph models using the adaptive exchange sampler

    KAUST Repository

    Jin, Ick Hoon; Liang, Faming; Yuan, Ying

    2013-01-01

    Exponential random graph models have been widely used in social network analysis. However, these models are extremely difficult to handle from a statistical viewpoint, because of the existence of intractable normalizing constants. In this paper, we

  19. Assessing the accuracy and stability of variable selection methods for random forest modeling in ecology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Random forest (RF) modeling has emerged as an important statistical learning method in ecology due to its exceptional predictive performance. However, for large and complex ecological datasets there is limited guidance on variable selection methods for RF modeling. Typically, e...

  20. Square-lattice random Potts model: criticality and pitchfork bifurcation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Costa, U.M.S.; Tsallis, C.

    1983-01-01

    Within a real space renormalization group framework based on self-dual clusters, the criticality of the quenched bond-mixed q-state Potts ferromagnet on square lattice is discussed. On qualitative grounds it is exhibited that the crossover from the pure fixed point to the random one occurs, while q increases, through a pitchfork bifurcation; the relationship with Harris criterion is analyzed. On quantitative grounds high precision numerical values are presented for the critical temperatures corresponding to various concentrations of the coupling constants J 1 and J 2 , and various ratios J 1 /J 2 . The pure, random and crossover critical exponents are discussed as well. (Author) [pt

  1. Genetic Analysis of Daily Maximum Milking Speed by a Random Walk Model in Dairy Cows

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karacaören, Burak; Janss, Luc; Kadarmideen, Haja

    Data were obtained from dairy cows stationed at research farm ETH Zurich for maximum milking speed. The main aims of this paper are a) to evaluate if the Wood curve is suitable to model mean lactation curve b) to predict longitudinal breeding values by random regression and random walk models of ...... filter applications: random walk model could give online prediction of breeding values. Hence without waiting for whole lactation records, genetic evaluation could be made when the daily or monthly data is available......Data were obtained from dairy cows stationed at research farm ETH Zurich for maximum milking speed. The main aims of this paper are a) to evaluate if the Wood curve is suitable to model mean lactation curve b) to predict longitudinal breeding values by random regression and random walk models...... of maximum milking speed. Wood curve did not provide a good fit to the data set. Quadratic random regressions gave better predictions compared with the random walk model. However random walk model does not need to be evaluated for different orders of regression coefficients. In addition with the Kalman...

  2. Random Modeling of Daily Rainfall and Runoff Using a Seasonal Model and Wavelet Denoising

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chien-ming Chou

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Instead of Fourier smoothing, this study applied wavelet denoising to acquire the smooth seasonal mean and corresponding perturbation term from daily rainfall and runoff data in traditional seasonal models, which use seasonal means for hydrological time series forecasting. The denoised rainfall and runoff time series data were regarded as the smooth seasonal mean. The probability distribution of the percentage coefficients can be obtained from calibrated daily rainfall and runoff data. For validated daily rainfall and runoff data, percentage coefficients were randomly generated according to the probability distribution and the law of linear proportion. Multiplying the generated percentage coefficient by the smooth seasonal mean resulted in the corresponding perturbation term. Random modeling of daily rainfall and runoff can be obtained by adding the perturbation term to the smooth seasonal mean. To verify the accuracy of the proposed method, daily rainfall and runoff data for the Wu-Tu watershed were analyzed. The analytical results demonstrate that wavelet denoising enhances the precision of daily rainfall and runoff modeling of the seasonal model. In addition, the wavelet denoising technique proposed in this study can obtain the smooth seasonal mean of rainfall and runoff processes and is suitable for modeling actual daily rainfall and runoff processes.

  3. A queueing model with randomized depletion of inventory

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Albrecher, H.-J.; Boxma, O.J.; Essifi, R.; Kuijstermans, A.C.M.

    2015-01-01

    In this paper we study an M/M/1 queue, where the server continues to work during idle periods and builds up inventory. This inventory is used for new arriving service requirements, but it is completely emptied at random epochs of a Poisson process, whose rate depends on the current level of the

  4. Positive random fields for modeling material stiffness and compliance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hasofer, Abraham Michael; Ditlevsen, Ove Dalager; Tarp-Johansen, Niels Jacob

    1998-01-01

    Positive random fields with known marginal properties and known correlation function are not numerous in the literature. The most prominent example is the log\\-normal field for which the complete distribution is known and for which the reciprocal field is also lognormal. It is of interest to supp...

  5. Studies in astronomical time series analysis: Modeling random processes in the time domain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scargle, J. D.

    1979-01-01

    Random process models phased in the time domain are used to analyze astrophysical time series data produced by random processes. A moving average (MA) model represents the data as a sequence of pulses occurring randomly in time, with random amplitudes. An autoregressive (AR) model represents the correlations in the process in terms of a linear function of past values. The best AR model is determined from sampled data and transformed to an MA for interpretation. The randomness of the pulse amplitudes is maximized by a FORTRAN algorithm which is relatively stable numerically. Results of test cases are given to study the effects of adding noise and of different distributions for the pulse amplitudes. A preliminary analysis of the optical light curve of the quasar 3C 273 is given.

  6. Soundness of Timed-Arc Workflow Nets in Discrete and Continuous-Time Semantics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mateo, Jose Antonio; Srba, Jiri; Sørensen, Mathias Grund

    2015-01-01

    Analysis of workflow processes with quantitative aspectslike timing is of interest in numerous time-critical applications. We suggest a workflow model based on timed-arc Petri nets and studythe foundational problems of soundness and strong (time-bounded) soundness.We first consider the discrete-t...

  7. Activated aging dynamics and effective trap model description in the random energy model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baity-Jesi, M.; Biroli, G.; Cammarota, C.

    2018-01-01

    We study the out-of-equilibrium aging dynamics of the random energy model (REM) ruled by a single spin-flip Metropolis dynamics. We focus on the dynamical evolution taking place on time-scales diverging with the system size. Our aim is to show to what extent the activated dynamics displayed by the REM can be described in terms of an effective trap model. We identify two time regimes: the first one corresponds to the process of escaping from a basin in the energy landscape and to the subsequent exploration of high energy configurations, whereas the second one corresponds to the evolution from a deep basin to the other. By combining numerical simulations with analytical arguments we show why the trap model description does not hold in the former but becomes exact in the second.

  8. OGUMI-A new mobile application to conduct common-pool resource experiments in continuous time.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gunnar Brandt

    Full Text Available OGUMI is an Android-based open source mobile application for conducting Common-Pool Resource Experiments, Choice Experiments, and Questionnaires in the field, in the laboratory, and online. A main feature of OGUMI is its capacity to capture real-time changes in human behaviour in response to a dynamically varying resource. OGUMI is simple (for example, likewise other existing software, it does not require expertise in behavioural game theory, stable, and extremely flexible with respect to the user-resource model running in the background. Here we present the motivation for the development of OGUMI and we discuss its main features with an example application.

  9. Numerical Simulation of Entropy Growth for a Nonlinear Evolutionary Model of Random Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mahdi Keshtkar

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In this communication, the generalized continuous economic model for random markets is revisited. In this model for random markets, agents trade by pairs and exchange their money in a random and conservative way. They display the exponential wealth distribution as asymptotic equilibrium, independently of the effectiveness of the transactions and of the limitation of the total wealth. In the current work, entropy of mentioned model is defined and then some theorems on entropy growth of this evolutionary problem are given. Furthermore, the entropy increasing by simulation on some numerical examples is verified.

  10. Estimating overall exposure effects for the clustered and censored outcome using random effect Tobit regression models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Wei; Griswold, Michael E

    2016-11-30

    The random effect Tobit model is a regression model that accommodates both left- and/or right-censoring and within-cluster dependence of the outcome variable. Regression coefficients of random effect Tobit models have conditional interpretations on a constructed latent dependent variable and do not provide inference of overall exposure effects on the original outcome scale. Marginalized random effects model (MREM) permits likelihood-based estimation of marginal mean parameters for the clustered data. For random effect Tobit models, we extend the MREM to marginalize over both the random effects and the normal space and boundary components of the censored response to estimate overall exposure effects at population level. We also extend the 'Average Predicted Value' method to estimate the model-predicted marginal means for each person under different exposure status in a designated reference group by integrating over the random effects and then use the calculated difference to assess the overall exposure effect. The maximum likelihood estimation is proposed utilizing a quasi-Newton optimization algorithm with Gauss-Hermite quadrature to approximate the integration of the random effects. We use these methods to carefully analyze two real datasets. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  11. Conditional Random Fields versus Hidden Markov Models for activity recognition in temporal sensor data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Kasteren, T.L.M.; Noulas, A.K.; Kröse, B.J.A.; Smit, G.J.M.; Epema, D.H.J.; Lew, M.S.

    2008-01-01

    Conditional Random Fields are a discriminative probabilistic model which recently gained popularity in applications that require modeling nonindependent observation sequences. In this work, we present the basic advantages of this model over generative models and argue about its suitability in the

  12. Large Deviations for the Annealed Ising Model on Inhomogeneous Random Graphs: Spins and Degrees

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dommers, Sander; Giardinà, Cristian; Giberti, Claudio; Hofstad, Remco van der

    2018-04-01

    We prove a large deviations principle for the total spin and the number of edges under the annealed Ising measure on generalized random graphs. We also give detailed results on how the annealing over the Ising model changes the degrees of the vertices in the graph and show how it gives rise to interesting correlated random graphs.

  13. Deriving Genomic Breeding Values for Residual Feed Intake from Covariance Functions of Random Regression Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Strathe, Anders B; Mark, Thomas; Nielsen, Bjarne

    2014-01-01

    Random regression models were used to estimate covariance functions between cumulated feed intake (CFI) and body weight (BW) in 8424 Danish Duroc pigs. Random regressions on second order Legendre polynomials of age were used to describe genetic and permanent environmental curves in BW and CFI...

  14. Denial-of-Service Security Attack in the Continuous-Time World

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wang, Shuling; Nielson, Flemming; Nielson, Hanne Riis

    2014-01-01

    -of-service security attack, the expected information from the controllers is not received and as a consequence the physical systems may fail to behave as expected. This paper proposes a formal framework for expressing denial-of-service security attack in hybrid systems. As a virtue, a physical system is able to plan......Hybrid systems are integrations of discrete computation and continuous physical evolution. The physical components of such systems introduce safety requirements, the achievement of which asks for the correct monitoring and control from the discrete controllers. However, due to denial...... for reasonable behavior in case the ideal control fails due to unreliable communication, in such a way that the safety of the system upon denial-of-service is still guaranteed. In the context of the modeling language, we develop an inference system for verifying safety of hybrid systems, without putting any...

  15. Continuous-time quantum walk on an extended star graph: Trapping and superradiance transition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yalouz, Saad; Pouthier, Vincent

    2018-02-01

    A tight-binding model is introduced for describing the dynamics of an exciton on an extended star graph whose central node is occupied by a trap. On this graph, the exciton dynamics is governed by two kinds of eigenstates: many eigenstates are associated with degenerate real eigenvalues insensitive to the trap, whereas three decaying eigenstates characterized by complex energies contribute to the trapping process. It is shown that the excitonic population absorbed by the trap depends on the size of the graph, only. By contrast, both the size parameters and the absorption rate control the dynamics of the trapping. When these parameters are judiciously chosen, the efficiency of the transfer is optimized resulting in the minimization of the absorption time. Analysis of the eigenstates reveals that such a feature arises around the superradiance transition. Moreover, depending on the size of the network, two situations are highlighted where the transport efficiency is either superoptimized or suboptimized.

  16. The Random Walk Model Based on Bipartite Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhang Man-Dun

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available With the continuing development of the electronic commerce and growth of network information, there is a growing possibility for citizens to be confused by the information. Though the traditional technology of information retrieval have the ability to relieve the overload of information in some extent, it can not offer a targeted personality service based on user’s interests and activities. In this context, the recommendation algorithm arose. In this paper, on the basis of conventional recommendation, we studied the scheme of random walk based on bipartite network and the application of it. We put forward a similarity measurement based on implicit feedback. In this method, a uneven character vector is imported(the weight of item in the system. We put forward a improved random walk pattern which make use of partial or incomplete neighbor information to create recommendation information. In the end, there is an experiment in the real data set, the recommendation accuracy and practicality are improved. We promise the reality of the result of the experiment

  17. Numerical modelling of random walk one-dimensional diffusion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vamos, C.; Suciu, N.; Peculea, M.

    1996-01-01

    The evolution of a particle which moves on a discrete one-dimensional lattice, according to a random walk low, approximates better the diffusion process smaller the steps of the spatial lattice and time are. For a sufficiently large assembly of particles one can assume that their relative frequency at lattice knots approximates the distribution function of the diffusion process. This assumption has been tested by simulating on computer two analytical solutions of the diffusion equation: the Brownian motion and the steady state linear distribution. To evaluate quantitatively the similarity between the numerical and analytical solutions we have used a norm given by the absolute value of the difference of the two solutions. Also, a diffusion coefficient at any lattice knots and moment of time has been calculated, by using the numerical solution both from the diffusion equation and the particle flux given by Fick's low. The difference between diffusion coefficient of analytical solution and the spatial lattice mean coefficient of numerical solution constitutes another quantitative indication of the similarity of the two solutions. The results obtained show that the approximation depends first on the number of particles at each knot of the spatial lattice. In conclusion, the random walk is a microscopic process of the molecular dynamics type which permits simulations precision of the diffusion processes with given precision. The numerical method presented in this work may be useful both in the analysis of real experiments and for theoretical studies

  18. A Design Methodology for Power-efficient Continuous-time Sigma-Delta A/D Converters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jannik Hammel; Bruun, Erik

    2003-01-01

    In this paper we present a design methodology for optimizing the power consumption of continuous-time (CT) ΣΔ A/D converters. A method for performance prediction for ΣΔ A/D converters is presented. Estimation of analog and digital power consumption is derived and employed to predict the most power...... bits performance. Expected power consumption for the prototype is approx. 170 μW....

  19. Development of a Computer-aided Learning System for Graphical Analysis of Continuous-Time Control Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. F. Opadiji

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available We present the development and deployment process of a computer-aided learning tool which serves as a training aid for undergraduate control engineering courses. We show the process of algorithm construction and implementation of the software which is also aimed at teaching software development at undergraduate level. The scope of this project is limited to graphical analysis of continuous-time control systems.

  20. The application of the random regret minimization model to drivers’ choice of crash avoidance maneuvers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaplan, Sigal; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    This study explores the plausibility of regret minimization as behavioral paradigm underlying the choice of crash avoidance maneuvers. Alternatively to previous studies that considered utility maximization, this study applies the random regret minimization (RRM) model while assuming that drivers ...

  1. The application of the random regret minimization model to drivers’ choice of crash avoidance maneuvers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaplan, Sigal; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    2012-01-01

    This study explores the plausibility of regret minimization as behavioral paradigm underlying the choice of crash avoidance maneuvers. Alternatively to previous studies that considered utility maximization, this study applies the random regret minimization (RRM) model while assuming that drivers ...

  2. Parametric level correlations in random-matrix models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weidenmueller, Hans A

    2005-01-01

    We show that parametric level correlations in random-matrix theories are closely related to a breaking of the symmetry between the advanced and the retarded Green functions. The form of the parametric level correlation function is the same as for the disordered case considered earlier by Simons and Altshuler and is given by the graded trace of the commutator of the saddle-point solution with the particular matrix that describes the symmetry breaking in the actual case of interest. The strength factor differs from the case of disorder. It is determined solely by the Goldstone mode. It is essentially given by the number of levels that are strongly mixed as the external parameter changes. The factor can easily be estimated in applications

  3. Exploring the Influence of Neighborhood Characteristics on Burglary Risks: A Bayesian Random Effects Modeling Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hongqiang Liu

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available A Bayesian random effects modeling approach was used to examine the influence of neighborhood characteristics on burglary risks in Jianghan District, Wuhan, China. This random effects model is essentially spatial; a spatially structured random effects term and an unstructured random effects term are added to the traditional non-spatial Poisson regression model. Based on social disorganization and routine activity theories, five covariates extracted from the available data at the neighborhood level were used in the modeling. Three regression models were fitted and compared by the deviance information criterion to identify which model best fit our data. A comparison of the results from the three models indicates that the Bayesian random effects model is superior to the non-spatial models in fitting the data and estimating regression coefficients. Our results also show that neighborhoods with above average bar density and department store density have higher burglary risks. Neighborhood-specific burglary risks and posterior probabilities of neighborhoods having a burglary risk greater than 1.0 were mapped, indicating the neighborhoods that should warrant more attention and be prioritized for crime intervention and reduction. Implications and limitations of the study are discussed in our concluding section.

  4. Local lattice relaxations in random metallic alloys: Effective tetrahedron model and supercell approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ruban, Andrei; Simak, S.I.; Shallcross, S.

    2003-01-01

    We present a simple effective tetrahedron model for local lattice relaxation effects in random metallic alloys on simple primitive lattices. A comparison with direct ab initio calculations for supercells representing random Ni0.50Pt0.50 and Cu0.25Au0.75 alloys as well as the dilute limit of Au-ri......-rich CuAu alloys shows that the model yields a quantitatively accurate description of the relaxtion energies in these systems. Finally, we discuss the bond length distribution in random alloys....

  5. A dynamic random effects multinomial logit model of household car ownership

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bue Bjørner, Thomas; Leth-Petersen, Søren

    2007-01-01

    Using a large household panel we estimate demand for car ownership by means of a dynamic multinomial model with correlated random effects. Results suggest that the persistence in car ownership observed in the data should be attributed to both true state dependence and to unobserved heterogeneity...... (random effects). It also appears that random effects related to single and multiple car ownership are correlated, suggesting that the IIA assumption employed in simple multinomial models of car ownership is invalid. Relatively small elasticities with respect to income and car costs are estimated...

  6. A spatial error model with continuous random effects and an application to growth convergence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laurini, Márcio Poletti

    2017-10-01

    We propose a spatial error model with continuous random effects based on Matérn covariance functions and apply this model for the analysis of income convergence processes (β -convergence). The use of a model with continuous random effects permits a clearer visualization and interpretation of the spatial dependency patterns, avoids the problems of defining neighborhoods in spatial econometrics models, and allows projecting the spatial effects for every possible location in the continuous space, circumventing the existing aggregations in discrete lattice representations. We apply this model approach to analyze the economic growth of Brazilian municipalities between 1991 and 2010 using unconditional and conditional formulations and a spatiotemporal model of convergence. The results indicate that the estimated spatial random effects are consistent with the existence of income convergence clubs for Brazilian municipalities in this period.

  7. Zero-inflated count models for longitudinal measurements with heterogeneous random effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Huirong; Luo, Sheng; DeSantis, Stacia M

    2017-08-01

    Longitudinal zero-inflated count data arise frequently in substance use research when assessing the effects of behavioral and pharmacological interventions. Zero-inflated count models (e.g. zero-inflated Poisson or zero-inflated negative binomial) with random effects have been developed to analyze this type of data. In random effects zero-inflated count models, the random effects covariance matrix is typically assumed to be homogeneous (constant across subjects). However, in many situations this matrix may be heterogeneous (differ by measured covariates). In this paper, we extend zero-inflated count models to account for random effects heterogeneity by modeling their variance as a function of covariates. We show via simulation that ignoring intervention and covariate-specific heterogeneity can produce biased estimates of covariate and random effect estimates. Moreover, those biased estimates can be rectified by correctly modeling the random effects covariance structure. The methodological development is motivated by and applied to the Combined Pharmacotherapies and Behavioral Interventions for Alcohol Dependence (COMBINE) study, the largest clinical trial of alcohol dependence performed in United States with 1383 individuals.

  8. A simple model of global cascades on random networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watts, Duncan J.

    2002-04-01

    The origin of large but rare cascades that are triggered by small initial shocks is a phenomenon that manifests itself as diversely as cultural fads, collective action, the diffusion of norms and innovations, and cascading failures in infrastructure and organizational networks. This paper presents a possible explanation of this phenomenon in terms of a sparse, random network of interacting agents whose decisions are determined by the actions of their neighbors according to a simple threshold rule. Two regimes are identified in which the network is susceptible to very large cascadesherein called global cascadesthat occur very rarely. When cascade propagation is limited by the connectivity of the network, a power law distribution of cascade sizes is observed, analogous to the cluster size distribution in standard percolation theory and avalanches in self-organized criticality. But when the network is highly connected, cascade propagation is limited instead by the local stability of the nodes themselves, and the size distribution of cascades is bimodal, implying a more extreme kind of instability that is correspondingly harder to anticipate. In the first regime, where the distribution of network neighbors is highly skewed, it is found that the most connected nodes are far more likely than average nodes to trigger cascades, but not in the second regime. Finally, it is shown that heterogeneity plays an ambiguous role in determining a system's stability: increasingly heterogeneous thresholds make the system more vulnerable to global cascades; but an increasingly heterogeneous degree distribution makes it less vulnerable.

  9. A cellular automata model of traffic flow with variable probability of randomization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zheng Wei-Fan; Zhang Ji-Ye

    2015-01-01

    Research on the stochastic behavior of traffic flow is important to understand the intrinsic evolution rules of a traffic system. By introducing an interactional potential of vehicles into the randomization step, an improved cellular automata traffic flow model with variable probability of randomization is proposed in this paper. In the proposed model, the driver is affected by the interactional potential of vehicles before him, and his decision-making process is related to the interactional potential. Compared with the traditional cellular automata model, the modeling is more suitable for the driver’s random decision-making process based on the vehicle and traffic situations in front of him in actual traffic. From the improved model, the fundamental diagram (flow–density relationship) is obtained, and the detailed high-density traffic phenomenon is reproduced through numerical simulation. (paper)

  10. Kinetics of transformations nucleated on random parallel planes: analytical modelling and computer simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rios, Paulo R; Assis, Weslley L S; Ribeiro, Tatiana C S; Villa, Elena

    2012-01-01

    In a classical paper, Cahn derived expressions for the kinetics of transformations nucleated on random planes and lines. He used those as a model for nucleation on the boundaries, edges and vertices of a polycrystal consisting of equiaxed grains. In this paper it is demonstrated that Cahn's expression for random planes may be used in situations beyond the scope envisaged in Cahn's original paper. For instance, we derived an expression for the kinetics of transformations nucleated on random parallel planes that is identical to that formerly obtained by Cahn considering random planes. Computer simulation of transformations nucleated on random parallel planes is carried out. It is shown that there is excellent agreement between simulated results and analytical solutions. Such an agreement is to be expected if both the simulation and the analytical solution are correct. (paper)

  11. Encoding Sequential Information in Semantic Space Models: Comparing Holographic Reduced Representation and Random Permutation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriel Recchia

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Circular convolution and random permutation have each been proposed as neurally plausible binding operators capable of encoding sequential information in semantic memory. We perform several controlled comparisons of circular convolution and random permutation as means of encoding paired associates as well as encoding sequential information. Random permutations outperformed convolution with respect to the number of paired associates that can be reliably stored in a single memory trace. Performance was equal on semantic tasks when using a small corpus, but random permutations were ultimately capable of achieving superior performance due to their higher scalability to large corpora. Finally, “noisy” permutations in which units are mapped to other units arbitrarily (no one-to-one mapping perform nearly as well as true permutations. These findings increase the neurological plausibility of random permutations and highlight their utility in vector space models of semantics.

  12. Challenges in modelling the random structure correctly in growth mixture models and the impact this has on model mixtures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilthorpe, M S; Dahly, D L; Tu, Y K; Kubzansky, L D; Goodman, E

    2014-06-01

    Lifecourse trajectories of clinical or anthropological attributes are useful for identifying how our early-life experiences influence later-life morbidity and mortality. Researchers often use growth mixture models (GMMs) to estimate such phenomena. It is common to place constrains on the random part of the GMM to improve parsimony or to aid convergence, but this can lead to an autoregressive structure that distorts the nature of the mixtures and subsequent model interpretation. This is especially true if changes in the outcome within individuals are gradual compared with the magnitude of differences between individuals. This is not widely appreciated, nor is its impact well understood. Using repeat measures of body mass index (BMI) for 1528 US adolescents, we estimated GMMs that required variance-covariance constraints to attain convergence. We contrasted constrained models with and without an autocorrelation structure to assess the impact this had on the ideal number of latent classes, their size and composition. We also contrasted model options using simulations. When the GMM variance-covariance structure was constrained, a within-class autocorrelation structure emerged. When not modelled explicitly, this led to poorer model fit and models that differed substantially in the ideal number of latent classes, as well as class size and composition. Failure to carefully consider the random structure of data within a GMM framework may lead to erroneous model inferences, especially for outcomes with greater within-person than between-person homogeneity, such as BMI. It is crucial to reflect on the underlying data generation processes when building such models.

  13. Random fluid limit of an overloaded polling model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M. Frolkova (Masha); S.G. Foss (Sergey); A.P. Zwart (Bert)

    2014-01-01

    htmlabstractIn the present paper, we study the evolution of an overloaded cyclic polling model that starts empty. Exploiting a connection with multitype branching processes, we derive fluid asymptotics for the joint queue length process. Under passage to the fluid dynamics, the server switches

  14. Random fluid limit of an overloaded polling model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M. Frolkova (Masha); S.G. Foss (Sergey); A.P. Zwart (Bert)

    2013-01-01

    htmlabstractIn the present paper, we study the evolution of an~overloaded cyclic polling model that starts empty. Exploiting a~connection with multitype branching processes, we derive fluid asymptotics for the joint queue length process. Under passage to the fluid dynamics, the server switches

  15. Multilevel random effect and marginal models for longitudinal data ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The models were applied to data obtained from a phase-III clinical trial on a new meningococcal vaccine. The goal is to investigate whether children injected by the candidate vaccine have a lower or higher risk for the occurrence of specific adverse events than children injected with licensed vaccine, and if so, to quantify the ...

  16. Susceptibility and magnetization of a random Ising model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kumar, D; Srivastava, V [Roorkee Univ. (India). Dept. of Physics

    1977-08-01

    The susceptibility of a bond disordered Ising model is calculated by configurationally averaging an Ornstein-Zernike type of equation for the two spin correlation function. The equation for the correlation function is derived using a diagrammatic method due to Englert. The averaging is performed using bond CPA. The magnetization is also calculated by averaging in a similar manner a linearised molecular field equation.

  17. Spectra of Anderson type models with decaying randomness

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Springer Verlag Heidelberg #4 2048 1996 Dec 15 10:16:45

    Our models include potentials decaying in all directions in which case ..... the free operators with some uniform bounds of low moments of the measure µ weighted ..... We have the following inequality coming out of Cauchy–Schwarz and Fubini, ... The required statement on the limit follows if we now show that the quantity in ...

  18. Restoration of dimensional reduction in the random-field Ising model at five dimensions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fytas, Nikolaos G.; Martín-Mayor, Víctor; Picco, Marco; Sourlas, Nicolas

    2017-04-01

    The random-field Ising model is one of the few disordered systems where the perturbative renormalization group can be carried out to all orders of perturbation theory. This analysis predicts dimensional reduction, i.e., that the critical properties of the random-field Ising model in D dimensions are identical to those of the pure Ising ferromagnet in D -2 dimensions. It is well known that dimensional reduction is not true in three dimensions, thus invalidating the perturbative renormalization group prediction. Here, we report high-precision numerical simulations of the 5D random-field Ising model at zero temperature. We illustrate universality by comparing different probability distributions for the random fields. We compute all the relevant critical exponents (including the critical slowing down exponent for the ground-state finding algorithm), as well as several other renormalization-group invariants. The estimated values of the critical exponents of the 5D random-field Ising model are statistically compatible to those of the pure 3D Ising ferromagnet. These results support the restoration of dimensional reduction at D =5 . We thus conclude that the failure of the perturbative renormalization group is a low-dimensional phenomenon. We close our contribution by comparing universal quantities for the random-field problem at dimensions 3 ≤D equality at all studied dimensions.

  19. A low-power 10-bit continuous-time CMOS ΣΔ A/D converter

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jannik Hammel; Bruun, Erik

    2004-01-01

    This paper presents the design of a third-order low-pass ΣΔ analog-to-digital converter (ADC) employing a continuous-time (CT) loop filter. The loop filter is implemented using Gm - C integrators, where the transconductors are implemented using CMOS transistors only. System level as well...... as transistor level design issues for power efficiency is discussed. A prototype ΣΔ ADC intended for weak biological signals restricted to bandwidths below 4 kHz has been manufactured in a standard 0.35 μm CMOS technology. The ADC has a measured resolution of 10 bits and a dynamic range (DR) of 67 d...

  20. Novel delay-distribution-dependent stability analysis for continuous-time recurrent neural networks with stochastic delay

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Shen-Quan; Feng Jian; Zhao Qing

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, the problem of delay-distribution-dependent stability is investigated for continuous-time recurrent neural networks (CRNNs) with stochastic delay. Different from the common assumptions on time delays, it is assumed that the probability distribution of the delay taking values in some intervals is known a priori. By making full use of the information concerning the probability distribution of the delay and by using a tighter bounding technique (the reciprocally convex combination method), less conservative asymptotic mean-square stable sufficient conditions are derived in terms of linear matrix inequalities (LMIs). Two numerical examples show that our results are better than the existing ones. (general)

  1. Robust Adaptive Dynamic Programming of Two-Player Zero-Sum Games for Continuous-Time Linear Systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, Yue; Fu, Jun; Chai, Tianyou

    2015-12-01

    In this brief, an online robust adaptive dynamic programming algorithm is proposed for two-player zero-sum games of continuous-time unknown linear systems with matched uncertainties, which are functions of system outputs and states of a completely unknown exosystem. The online algorithm is developed using the policy iteration (PI) scheme with only one iteration loop. A new analytical method is proposed for convergence proof of the PI scheme. The sufficient conditions are given to guarantee globally asymptotic stability and suboptimal property of the closed-loop system. Simulation studies are conducted to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

  2. A New Approach to Rational Discrete-Time Approximations to Continuous-Time Fractional-Order Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Matos , Carlos; Ortigueira , Manuel ,

    2012-01-01

    Part 10: Signal Processing; International audience; In this paper a new approach to rational discrete-time approximations to continuous fractional-order systems of the form 1/(sα+p) is proposed. We will show that such fractional-order LTI system can be decomposed into sub-systems. One has the classic behavior and the other is similar to a Finite Impulse Response (FIR) system. The conversion from continuous-time to discrete-time systems will be done using the Laplace transform inversion integr...

  3. A single-level random-effects cross-lagged panel model for longitudinal mediation analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Wei; Carroll, Ian A; Chen, Po-Yi

    2017-12-06

    Cross-lagged panel models (CLPMs) are widely used to test mediation with longitudinal panel data. One major limitation of the CLPMs is that the model effects are assumed to be fixed across individuals. This assumption is likely to be violated (i.e., the model effects are random across individuals) in practice. When this happens, the CLPMs can potentially yield biased parameter estimates and misleading statistical inferences. This article proposes a model named a random-effects cross-lagged panel model (RE-CLPM) to account for random effects in CLPMs. Simulation studies show that the RE-CLPM outperforms the CLPM in recovering the mean indirect and direct effects in a longitudinal mediation analysis when random effects exist in the population. The performance of the RE-CLPM is robust to a certain degree, even when the random effects are not normally distributed. In addition, the RE-CLPM does not produce harmful results when the model effects are in fact fixed in the population. Implications of the simulation studies and potential directions for future research are discussed.

  4. Entropy, complexity, and Markov diagrams for random walk cancer models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newton, Paul K; Mason, Jeremy; Hurt, Brian; Bethel, Kelly; Bazhenova, Lyudmila; Nieva, Jorge; Kuhn, Peter

    2014-12-19

    The notion of entropy is used to compare the complexity associated with 12 common cancers based on metastatic tumor distribution autopsy data. We characterize power-law distributions, entropy, and Kullback-Liebler divergence associated with each primary cancer as compared with data for all cancer types aggregated. We then correlate entropy values with other measures of complexity associated with Markov chain dynamical systems models of progression. The Markov transition matrix associated with each cancer is associated with a directed graph model where nodes are anatomical locations where a metastatic tumor could develop, and edge weightings are transition probabilities of progression from site to site. The steady-state distribution corresponds to the autopsy data distribution. Entropy correlates well with the overall complexity of the reduced directed graph structure for each cancer and with a measure of systemic interconnectedness of the graph, called graph conductance. The models suggest that grouping cancers according to their entropy values, with skin, breast, kidney, and lung cancers being prototypical high entropy cancers, stomach, uterine, pancreatic and ovarian being mid-level entropy cancers, and colorectal, cervical, bladder, and prostate cancers being prototypical low entropy cancers, provides a potentially useful framework for viewing metastatic cancer in terms of predictability, complexity, and metastatic potential.

  5. Corrections to scaling in random resistor networks and diluted continuous spin models near the percolation threshold.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janssen, Hans-Karl; Stenull, Olaf

    2004-02-01

    We investigate corrections to scaling induced by irrelevant operators in randomly diluted systems near the percolation threshold. The specific systems that we consider are the random resistor network and a class of continuous spin systems, such as the x-y model. We focus on a family of least irrelevant operators and determine the corrections to scaling that originate from this family. Our field theoretic analysis carefully takes into account that irrelevant operators mix under renormalization. It turns out that long standing results on corrections to scaling are respectively incorrect (random resistor networks) or incomplete (continuous spin systems).

  6. Application of the load flow and random flow models for the analysis of power transmission networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zio, Enrico; Piccinelli, Roberta; Delfanti, Maurizio; Olivieri, Valeria; Pozzi, Mauro

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, the classical load flow model and the random flow model are considered for analyzing the performance of power transmission networks. The analysis concerns both the system performance and the importance of the different system elements; this latter is computed by power flow and random walk betweenness centrality measures. A network system from the literature is analyzed, representing a simple electrical power transmission network. The results obtained highlight the differences between the LF “global approach” to flow dispatch and the RF local approach of randomized node-to-node load transfer. Furthermore, computationally the LF model is less consuming than the RF model but problems of convergence may arise in the LF calculation.

  7. Finite-range Coulomb gas models of banded random matrices and quantum kicked rotors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pandey, Akhilesh; Kumar, Avanish; Puri, Sanjay

    2017-11-01

    Dyson demonstrated an equivalence between infinite-range Coulomb gas models and classical random matrix ensembles for the study of eigenvalue statistics. We introduce finite-range Coulomb gas (FRCG) models via a Brownian matrix process, and study them analytically and by Monte Carlo simulations. These models yield new universality classes, and provide a theoretical framework for the study of banded random matrices (BRMs) and quantum kicked rotors (QKRs). We demonstrate that, for a BRM of bandwidth b and a QKR of chaos parameter α, the appropriate FRCG model has the effective range d=b^{2}/N=α^{2}/N, for large N matrix dimensionality. As d increases, there is a transition from Poisson to classical random matrix statistics.

  8. Possibility/Necessity-Based Probabilistic Expectation Models for Linear Programming Problems with Discrete Fuzzy Random Variables

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hideki Katagiri

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper considers linear programming problems (LPPs where the objective functions involve discrete fuzzy random variables (fuzzy set-valued discrete random variables. New decision making models, which are useful in fuzzy stochastic environments, are proposed based on both possibility theory and probability theory. In multi-objective cases, Pareto optimal solutions of the proposed models are newly defined. Computational algorithms for obtaining the Pareto optimal solutions of the proposed models are provided. It is shown that problems involving discrete fuzzy random variables can be transformed into deterministic nonlinear mathematical programming problems which can be solved through a conventional mathematical programming solver under practically reasonable assumptions. A numerical example of agriculture production problems is given to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed models to real-world problems in fuzzy stochastic environments.

  9. Case management: a randomized controlled study comparing a neighborhood team and a centralized individual model.

    OpenAIRE

    Eggert, G M; Zimmer, J G; Hall, W J; Friedman, B

    1991-01-01

    This randomized controlled study compared two types of case management for skilled nursing level patients living at home: the centralized individual model and the neighborhood team model. The team model differed from the individual model in that team case managers performed client assessments, care planning, some direct services, and reassessments; they also had much smaller caseloads and were assigned a specific catchment area. While patients in both groups incurred very high estimated healt...

  10. Model of Random Polygon Particles for Concrete and Mesh Automatic Subdivision

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    In order to study the constitutive behavior of concrete in mesoscopic level, a new method is proposed in this paper. This method uses random polygon particles to simulate full grading broken aggregates of concrete. Based on computational geometry, we carry out the automatic generation of the triangle finite element mesh for the model of random polygon particles of concrete. The finite element mesh generated in this paper is also applicable to many other numerical methods.

  11. Covariance of random stock prices in the Stochastic Dividend Discount Model

    OpenAIRE

    Agosto, Arianna; Mainini, Alessandra; Moretto, Enrico

    2016-01-01

    Dividend discount models have been developed in a deterministic setting. Some authors (Hurley and Johnson, 1994 and 1998; Yao, 1997) have introduced randomness in terms of stochastic growth rates, delivering closed-form expressions for the expected value of stock prices. This paper extends such previous results by determining a formula for the covariance between random stock prices when the dividends' rates of growth are correlated. The formula is eventually applied to real market data.

  12. A new neural network model for solving random interval linear programming problems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arjmandzadeh, Ziba; Safi, Mohammadreza; Nazemi, Alireza

    2017-05-01

    This paper presents a neural network model for solving random interval linear programming problems. The original problem involving random interval variable coefficients is first transformed into an equivalent convex second order cone programming problem. A neural network model is then constructed for solving the obtained convex second order cone problem. Employing Lyapunov function approach, it is also shown that the proposed neural network model is stable in the sense of Lyapunov and it is globally convergent to an exact satisfactory solution of the original problem. Several illustrative examples are solved in support of this technique. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Phase transitions in the random field Ising model in the presence of a transverse field

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dutta, A.; Chakrabarti, B.K. [Saha Institute of Nuclear Physics, Bidhannagar, Calcutta (India); Stinchcombe, R.B. [Saha Institute of Nuclear Physics, Bidhannagar, Calcutta (India); Department of Physics, Oxford (United Kingdom)

    1996-09-07

    We have studied the phase transition behaviour of the random field Ising model in the presence of a transverse (or tunnelling) field. The mean field phase diagram has been studied in detail, and in particular the nature of the transition induced by the tunnelling (transverse) field at zero temperature. Modified hyper-scaling relation for the zero-temperature transition has been derived using the Suzuki-Trotter formalism and a modified 'Harris criterion'. Mapping of the model to a randomly diluted antiferromagnetic Ising model in uniform longitudinal and transverse field is also given. (author)

  14. Equilibrium in a random viewer model of television broadcasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Bodil Olai; Keiding, Hans

    2014-01-01

    The authors considered a model of commercial television market with advertising with probabilistic viewer choice of channel, where private broadcasters may coexist with a public television broadcaster. The broadcasters influence the probability of getting viewer attention through the amount...... number of channels. The authors derive properties of equilibrium in an oligopolistic market with private broadcasters and show that the number of firms has a negative effect on overall advertising and viewer satisfaction. If there is a public channel that also sells advertisements but does not maximize...... profits, this will have a positive effect on advertiser and viewer satisfaction....

  15. Silkworm cocoons inspire models for random fiber and particulate composites

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fujia, Chen; Porter, David; Vollrath, Fritz [Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3PS (United Kingdom)

    2010-10-15

    The bioengineering design principles evolved in silkworm cocoons make them ideal natural prototypes and models for structural composites. Cocoons depend for their stiffness and strength on the connectivity of bonding between their constituent materials of silk fibers and sericin binder. Strain-activated mechanisms for loss of bonding connectivity in cocoons can be translated directly into a surprisingly simple yet universal set of physically realistic as well as predictive quantitative structure-property relations for a wide range of technologically important fiber and particulate composite materials.

  16. A random effects meta-analysis model with Box-Cox transformation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamaguchi, Yusuke; Maruo, Kazushi; Partlett, Christopher; Riley, Richard D

    2017-07-19

    In a random effects meta-analysis model, true treatment effects for each study are routinely assumed to follow a normal distribution. However, normality is a restrictive assumption and the misspecification of the random effects distribution may result in a misleading estimate of overall mean for the treatment effect, an inappropriate quantification of heterogeneity across studies and a wrongly symmetric prediction interval. We focus on problems caused by an inappropriate normality assumption of the random effects distribution, and propose a novel random effects meta-analysis model where a Box-Cox transformation is applied to the observed treatment effect estimates. The proposed model aims to normalise an overall distribution of observed treatment effect estimates, which is sum of the within-study sampling distributions and the random effects distribution. When sampling distributions are approximately normal, non-normality in the overall distribution will be mainly due to the random effects distribution, especially when the between-study variation is large relative to the within-study variation. The Box-Cox transformation addresses this flexibly according to the observed departure from normality. We use a Bayesian approach for estimating parameters in the proposed model, and suggest summarising the meta-analysis results by an overall median, an interquartile range and a prediction interval. The model can be applied for any kind of variables once the treatment effect estimate is defined from the variable. A simulation study suggested that when the overall distribution of treatment effect estimates are skewed, the overall mean and conventional I 2 from the normal random effects model could be inappropriate summaries, and the proposed model helped reduce this issue. We illustrated the proposed model using two examples, which revealed some important differences on summary results, heterogeneity measures and prediction intervals from the normal random effects model. The

  17. A random effects meta-analysis model with Box-Cox transformation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yusuke Yamaguchi

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In a random effects meta-analysis model, true treatment effects for each study are routinely assumed to follow a normal distribution. However, normality is a restrictive assumption and the misspecification of the random effects distribution may result in a misleading estimate of overall mean for the treatment effect, an inappropriate quantification of heterogeneity across studies and a wrongly symmetric prediction interval. Methods We focus on problems caused by an inappropriate normality assumption of the random effects distribution, and propose a novel random effects meta-analysis model where a Box-Cox transformation is applied to the observed treatment effect estimates. The proposed model aims to normalise an overall distribution of observed treatment effect estimates, which is sum of the within-study sampling distributions and the random effects distribution. When sampling distributions are approximately normal, non-normality in the overall distribution will be mainly due to the random effects distribution, especially when the between-study variation is large relative to the within-study variation. The Box-Cox transformation addresses this flexibly according to the observed departure from normality. We use a Bayesian approach for estimating parameters in the proposed model, and suggest summarising the meta-analysis results by an overall median, an interquartile range and a prediction interval. The model can be applied for any kind of variables once the treatment effect estimate is defined from the variable. Results A simulation study suggested that when the overall distribution of treatment effect estimates are skewed, the overall mean and conventional I 2 from the normal random effects model could be inappropriate summaries, and the proposed model helped reduce this issue. We illustrated the proposed model using two examples, which revealed some important differences on summary results, heterogeneity measures and

  18. Potts Model with Invisible Colors : Random-Cluster Representation and Pirogov–Sinai Analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Enter, Aernout C.D. van; Iacobelli, Giulio; Taati, Siamak

    We study a recently introduced variant of the ferromagnetic Potts model consisting of a ferromagnetic interaction among q “visible” colors along with the presence of r non-interacting “invisible” colors. We introduce a random-cluster representation for the model, for which we prove the existence of

  19. P2 : A random effects model with covariates for directed graphs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Duijn, M.A.J.; Snijders, T.A.B.; Zijlstra, B.J.H.

    A random effects model is proposed for the analysis of binary dyadic data that represent a social network or directed graph, using nodal and/or dyadic attributes as covariates. The network structure is reflected by modeling the dependence between the relations to and from the same actor or node.

  20. Random Walk Model for the Growth of Monolayer in Dip Pen Nanolithography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, H; Ha, S; Jang, J

    2013-01-01

    By using a simple random-walk model, we simulate the growth of a self-assembled monolayer (SAM) pattern generated in dip pen nanolithography (DPN). In this model, the SAM pattern grows mainly via the serial pushing of molecules deposited from the tip. We examine various SAM patterns, such as lines, crosses, and letters by changing the tip scan speed.

  1. Examples of mixed-effects modeling with crossed random effects and with binomial data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Quené, H.; van den Bergh, H.

    2008-01-01

    Psycholinguistic data are often analyzed with repeated-measures analyses of variance (ANOVA), but this paper argues that mixed-effects (multilevel) models provide a better alternative method. First, models are discussed in which the two random factors of participants and items are crossed, and not

  2. Random regret minimization : Exploration of a new choice model for environmental and resource economics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Thiene, M.; Boeri, M.; Chorus, C.G.

    2011-01-01

    This paper introduces the discrete choice model-paradigm of Random Regret Minimization (RRM) to the field of environmental and resource economics. The RRM-approach has been very recently developed in the context of travel demand modelling and presents a tractable, regret-based alternative to the

  3. A binomial random sum of present value models in investment analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Βουδούρη, Αγγελική; Ντζιαχρήστος, Ευάγγελος

    1997-01-01

    Stochastic present value models have been widely adopted in financial theory and practice and play a very important role in capital budgeting and profit planning. The purpose of this paper is to introduce a binomial random sum of stochastic present value models and offer an application in investment analysis.

  4. The limiting behavior of the estimated parameters in a misspecified random field regression model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dahl, Christian Møller; Qin, Yu

    This paper examines the limiting properties of the estimated parameters in the random field regression model recently proposed by Hamilton (Econometrica, 2001). Though the model is parametric, it enjoys the flexibility of the nonparametric approach since it can approximate a large collection of n...

  5. Accounting for perception in random regret choice models: Weberian and generalized Weberian specifications

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jang, S.; Rasouli, S.; Timmermans, H.J.P.

    2016-01-01

    Recently, regret-based choice models have been introduced in the travel behavior research community as an alternative to expected/random utility models. The fundamental proposition underlying regret theory is that individuals minimize the amount of regret they (are expected to) experience when

  6. High Performance Microaccelerometer with Wafer-level Hermetic Packaged Sensing Element and Continuous-time BiCMOS Interface Circuit

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ko, Hyoungho; Park, Sangjun; Paik, Seung-Joon; Choi, Byoung-doo; Park, Yonghwa; Lee, Sangmin; Kim, Sungwook; Lee, Sang Chul; Lee, Ahra; Yoo, Kwangho; Lim, Jaesang; Cho, Dong-il

    2006-01-01

    A microaccelerometer with highly reliable, wafer-level packaged MEMS sensing element and fully differential, continuous time, low noise, BiCMOS interface circuit is fabricated. The MEMS sensing element is fabricated on a (111)-oriented SOI wafer by using the SBM (Sacrificial/Bulk Micromachining) process. To protect the silicon structure of the sensing element and enhance the reliability, a wafer level hermetic packaging process is performed by using a silicon-glass anodic bonding process. The interface circuit is fabricated using 0.8 μm BiCMOS process. The capacitance change of the MEMS sensing element is amplified by the continuous-time, fully-differential transconductance input amplifier. A chopper-stabilization architecture is adopted to reduce low-frequency noise including 1/f noise. The fabricated microaccelerometer has the total noise equivalent acceleration of 0.89 μg/√Hz, the bias instability of 490 μg, the input range of ±10 g, and the output nonlinearity of ±0.5 %FSO

  7. A Comparison of Three Random Number Generators for Aircraft Dynamic Modeling Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grauer, Jared A.

    2017-01-01

    Three random number generators, which produce Gaussian white noise sequences, were compared to assess their suitability in aircraft dynamic modeling applications. The first generator considered was the MATLAB (registered) implementation of the Mersenne-Twister algorithm. The second generator was a website called Random.org, which processes atmospheric noise measured using radios to create the random numbers. The third generator was based on synthesis of the Fourier series, where the random number sequences are constructed from prescribed amplitude and phase spectra. A total of 200 sequences, each having 601 random numbers, for each generator were collected and analyzed in terms of the mean, variance, normality, autocorrelation, and power spectral density. These sequences were then applied to two problems in aircraft dynamic modeling, namely estimating stability and control derivatives from simulated onboard sensor data, and simulating flight in atmospheric turbulence. In general, each random number generator had good performance and is well-suited for aircraft dynamic modeling applications. Specific strengths and weaknesses of each generator are discussed. For Monte Carlo simulation, the Fourier synthesis method is recommended because it most accurately and consistently approximated Gaussian white noise and can be implemented with reasonable computational effort.

  8. Statistical Shape Modelling and Markov Random Field Restoration (invited tutorial and exercise)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hilger, Klaus Baggesen

    This tutorial focuses on statistical shape analysis using point distribution models (PDM) which is widely used in modelling biological shape variability over a set of annotated training data. Furthermore, Active Shape Models (ASM) and Active Appearance Models (AAM) are based on PDMs and have proven...... deformation field between shapes. The tutorial demonstrates both generative active shape and appearance models, and MRF restoration on 3D polygonized surfaces. ''Exercise: Spectral-Spatial classification of multivariate images'' From annotated training data this exercise applies spatial image restoration...... using Markov random field relaxation of a spectral classifier. Keywords: the Ising model, the Potts model, stochastic sampling, discriminant analysis, expectation maximization....

  9. Auto Regressive Moving Average (ARMA) Modeling Method for Gyro Random Noise Using a Robust Kalman Filter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Lei

    2015-01-01

    To solve the problem in which the conventional ARMA modeling methods for gyro random noise require a large number of samples and converge slowly, an ARMA modeling method using a robust Kalman filtering is developed. The ARMA model parameters are employed as state arguments. Unknown time-varying estimators of observation noise are used to achieve the estimated mean and variance of the observation noise. Using the robust Kalman filtering, the ARMA model parameters are estimated accurately. The developed ARMA modeling method has the advantages of a rapid convergence and high accuracy. Thus, the required sample size is reduced. It can be applied to modeling applications for gyro random noise in which a fast and accurate ARMA modeling method is required. PMID:26437409

  10. Note on an Identity Between Two Unbiased Variance Estimators for the Grand Mean in a Simple Random Effects Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levin, Bruce; Leu, Cheng-Shiun

    2013-01-01

    We demonstrate the algebraic equivalence of two unbiased variance estimators for the sample grand mean in a random sample of subjects from an infinite population where subjects provide repeated observations following a homoscedastic random effects model.

  11. Genomic-Enabled Prediction Kernel Models with Random Intercepts for Multi-environment Trials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cuevas, Jaime; Granato, Italo; Fritsche-Neto, Roberto; Montesinos-Lopez, Osval A.; Burgueño, Juan; Bandeira e Sousa, Massaine; Crossa, José

    2018-01-01

    In this study, we compared the prediction accuracy of the main genotypic effect model (MM) without G×E interactions, the multi-environment single variance G×E deviation model (MDs), and the multi-environment environment-specific variance G×E deviation model (MDe) where the random genetic effects of the lines are modeled with the markers (or pedigree). With the objective of further modeling the genetic residual of the lines, we incorporated the random intercepts of the lines (l) and generated another three models. Each of these 6 models were fitted with a linear kernel method (Genomic Best Linear Unbiased Predictor, GB) and a Gaussian Kernel (GK) method. We compared these 12 model-method combinations with another two multi-environment G×E interactions models with unstructured variance-covariances (MUC) using GB and GK kernels (4 model-method). Thus, we compared the genomic-enabled prediction accuracy of a total of 16 model-method combinations on two maize data sets with positive phenotypic correlations among environments, and on two wheat data sets with complex G×E that includes some negative and close to zero phenotypic correlations among environments. The two models (MDs and MDE with the random intercept of the lines and the GK method) were computationally efficient and gave high prediction accuracy in the two maize data sets. Regarding the more complex G×E wheat data sets, the prediction accuracy of the model-method combination with G×E, MDs and MDe, including the random intercepts of the lines with GK method had important savings in computing time as compared with the G×E interaction multi-environment models with unstructured variance-covariances but with lower genomic prediction accuracy. PMID:29476023

  12. A random walk model for evaluating clinical trials involving serial observations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hopper, J L; Young, G P

    1988-05-01

    For clinical trials where the variable of interest is ordered and categorical (for example, disease severity, symptom scale), and where measurements are taken at intervals, it might be possible to achieve a greater discrimination between the efficacy of treatments by modelling each patient's progress as a stochastic process. The random walk is a simple, easily interpreted model that can be fitted by maximum likelihood using a maximization routine with inference based on standard likelihood theory. In general the model can allow for randomly censored data, incorporates measured prognostic factors, and inference is conditional on the (possibly non-random) allocation of patients. Tests of fit and of model assumptions are proposed, and application to two therapeutic trials of gastroenterological disorders are presented. The model gave measures of the rate of, and variability in, improvement for patients under different treatments. A small simulation study suggested that the model is more powerful than considering the difference between initial and final scores, even when applied to data generated by a mechanism other than the random walk model assumed in the analysis. It thus provides a useful additional statistical method for evaluating clinical trials.

  13. One Model Fits All: Explaining Many Aspects of Number Comparison within a Single Coherent Model-A Random Walk Account

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reike, Dennis; Schwarz, Wolf

    2016-01-01

    The time required to determine the larger of 2 digits decreases with their numerical distance, and, for a given distance, increases with their magnitude (Moyer & Landauer, 1967). One detailed quantitative framework to account for these effects is provided by random walk models. These chronometric models describe how number-related noisy…

  14. Random walk to a nonergodic equilibrium concept

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bel, G.; Barkai, E.

    2006-01-01

    Random walk models, such as the trap model, continuous time random walks, and comb models, exhibit weak ergodicity breaking, when the average waiting time is infinite. The open question is, what statistical mechanical theory replaces the canonical Boltzmann-Gibbs theory for such systems? In this paper a nonergodic equilibrium concept is investigated, for a continuous time random walk model in a potential field. In particular we show that in the nonergodic phase the distribution of the occupation time of the particle in a finite region of space approaches U- or W-shaped distributions related to the arcsine law. We show that when conditions of detailed balance are applied, these distributions depend on the partition function of the problem, thus establishing a relation between the nonergodic dynamics and canonical statistical mechanics. In the ergodic phase the distribution function of the occupation times approaches a δ function centered on the value predicted based on standard Boltzmann-Gibbs statistics. The relation of our work to single-molecule experiments is briefly discussed.

  15. Phase structure of the O(n) model on a random lattice for n > 2

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Durhuus, B.; Kristjansen, C.

    1997-01-01

    We show that coarse graining arguments invented for the analysis of multi-spin systems on a randomly triangulated surface apply also to the O(n) model on a random lattice. These arguments imply that if the model has a critical point with diverging string susceptibility, then either γ = +1....../2 or there exists a dual critical point with negative string susceptibility exponent, γ̃, related to γ by γ = γ̃/γ̃-1. Exploiting the exact solution of the O(n) model on a random lattice we show that both situations are realized for n > 2 and that the possible dual pairs of string susceptibility exponents are given...... by (γ̃, γ) = (-1/m, 1/m+1), m = 2, 3, . . . We also show that at the critical points with positive string susceptibility exponent the average number of loops on the surface diverges while the average length of a single loop stays finite....

  16. Randomly dispersed particle fuel model in the PSG Monte Carlo neutron transport code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leppaenen, J.

    2007-01-01

    High-temperature gas-cooled reactor fuels are composed of thousands of microscopic fuel particles, randomly dispersed in a graphite matrix. The modelling of such geometry is complicated, especially using continuous-energy Monte Carlo codes, which are unable to apply any deterministic corrections in the calculation. This paper presents the geometry routine developed for modelling randomly dispersed particle fuels using the PSG Monte Carlo reactor physics code. The model is based on the delta-tracking method, and it takes into account the spatial self-shielding effects and the random dispersion of the fuel particles. The calculation routine is validated by comparing the results to reference MCNP4C calculations using uranium and plutonium based fuels. (authors)

  17. Random cyclic constitutive models of 0Cr18Ni10Ti pipe steel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhao Yongxiang; Yang Bing

    2004-01-01

    Experimental study is performed on the random cyclic constitutive relations of a new pipe stainless steel, 0Cr18Ni10Ti, by an incremental strain-controlled fatigue test. In the test, it is verified that the random cyclic constitutive relations, like the wide recognized random cyclic strain-life relations, is an intrinsic fatigue phenomenon of engineering materials. Extrapolating the previous work by Zhao et al, probability-based constitutive models are constructed, respectively, on the bases of Ramberg-Osgood equation and its modified form. Scattering regularity and amount of the test data are taken into account. The models consist of the survival probability-strain-life curves, the confidence strain-life curves, and the survival probability-confidence-strain-life curves. Availability and feasibility of the models have been indicated by analysis of the present test data

  18. Self-dual random-plaquette gauge model and the quantum toric code

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takeda, Koujin; Nishimori, Hidetoshi

    2004-05-01

    We study the four-dimensional Z2 random-plaquette lattice gauge theory as a model of topological quantum memory, the toric code in particular. In this model, the procedure of quantum error correction works properly in the ordered (Higgs) phase, and phase boundary between the ordered (Higgs) and disordered (confinement) phases gives the accuracy threshold of error correction. Using self-duality of the model in conjunction with the replica method, we show that this model has exactly the same mathematical structure as that of the two-dimensional random-bond Ising model, which has been studied very extensively. This observation enables us to derive a conjecture on the exact location of the multicritical point (accuracy threshold) of the model, pc=0.889972…, and leads to several nontrivial results including bounds on the accuracy threshold in three dimensions.

  19. Self-dual random-plaquette gauge model and the quantum toric code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Takeda, Koujin; Nishimori, Hidetoshi

    2004-01-01

    We study the four-dimensional Z 2 random-plaquette lattice gauge theory as a model of topological quantum memory, the toric code in particular. In this model, the procedure of quantum error correction works properly in the ordered (Higgs) phase, and phase boundary between the ordered (Higgs) and disordered (confinement) phases gives the accuracy threshold of error correction. Using self-duality of the model in conjunction with the replica method, we show that this model has exactly the same mathematical structure as that of the two-dimensional random-bond Ising model, which has been studied very extensively. This observation enables us to derive a conjecture on the exact location of the multicritical point (accuracy threshold) of the model, p c =0.889972..., and leads to several nontrivial results including bounds on the accuracy threshold in three dimensions

  20. Diffusion in randomly perturbed dissipative dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodrigues, Christian S.; Chechkin, Aleksei V.; de Moura, Alessandro P. S.; Grebogi, Celso; Klages, Rainer

    2014-11-01

    Dynamical systems having many coexisting attractors present interesting properties from both fundamental theoretical and modelling points of view. When such dynamics is under bounded random perturbations, the basins of attraction are no longer invariant and there is the possibility of transport among them. Here we introduce a basic theoretical setting which enables us to study this hopping process from the perspective of anomalous transport using the concept of a random dynamical system with holes. We apply it to a simple model by investigating the role of hyperbolicity for the transport among basins. We show numerically that our system exhibits non-Gaussian position distributions, power-law escape times, and subdiffusion. Our simulation results are reproduced consistently from stochastic continuous time random walk theory.