WorldWideScience

Sample records for model years 2012-2016

  1. Scholarly Productivity in Communication Studies: Five-Year Review 2012-2016

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffin, Darrin J.; Bolkan, San; Dahlbach, Barbara J.

    2018-01-01

    This study reports prolific scholarship trends in communication studies based on individual publication rates in 24 journals from the field for the years 2012-2016. In addition, we summarized data from a subset of journals considered to be most central to our discipline ("Human Communication Research, Communication Research, Communication…

  2. Years of sound living: Mikser festival in Savamala (2012-2016

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Medić Ivana

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This article deals with the soundscape of Mikser, an independent festival of contemporary creativity, established in 2009 in Belgrade, the capital city of Serbia. I focus on the years 2012-2016, during which Mikser was taking place in Savamala, an urban quarter in central Belgrade - which itself has undergone various urbanistic and cultural transformations in recent years. The creative team behind Mikser aimed to turn Savamala into a permanent fixture on the map of Belgrade nightlife and a tourist hotspot; the fact that they did not succeed was on account both of financial issues and conflicting top-down business interests. My conclusion is that the long-term survival of the festival is not dependent on its program or audiences, but on securing official support and infrastructure. [Project of the Serbian Ministry of Education, Science and Technological Development, Grant no. 177004: Serbian Musical Identities Within Local and Global Frameworks: Traditions, Changes, Challenges

  3. 76 FR 61402 - Draft Nuclear Regulatory Commission Fiscal Year 2012-2016 Strategic Plan

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-10-04

    ...-2016 Strategic Plan AGENCY: Nuclear Regulatory Commission. ACTION: Draft NUREG; request for comment... comment on draft NUREG-1614, Volume 5. ``U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, FY 2012-2016 Strategic Plan,'' dated September 2011. The NRC's draft FY 2012-2016 strategic plan describes the agency's mission and...

  4. 78 FR 5347 - Denial of Reconsideration Petition on Model Year 2012-2016 Light Duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-25

    ....'' PLF argues that this case falls under the first asserted principle, as the procedural requirement... New Jersey v. EPA, 626 F. 2d 1038, 1049-50 (D.C. Cir. 1980) and Sugar Cane Growers Coop. of Fla. v... general rule petitioners claim, and are not on point. Both State of New Jersey and Sugar Cane Growers...

  5. Key drivers of precipitation isotopes in Windhoek, Namibia (2012-2016)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaseke, K. F.; Wang, L.; Wanke, H.

    2017-12-01

    Southern African climate is characterized by large variability with precipitation model estimates varying by as much as 70% during summer. This difference between model estimates is partly because most models associate precipitation over Southern Africa with moisture inputs from the Indian Ocean while excluding inputs from the Atlantic Ocean. However, growing evidence suggests that the Atlantic Ocean may also contribute significant amounts of moisture to the region. This four-year (2012-2016) study investigates the isotopic composition (δ18O, δ2H and δ17O) of event-scale precipitation events, the key drivers of isotope variations and the origins of precipitation experienced in Windhoek, Namibia. Results indicate large storm-to-storm isotopic variability δ18O (25‰), δ2H (180‰) and δ17O (13‰) over the study period. Univariate analysis showed significant correlations between event precipitation isotopes and local meteorological parameters; lifted condensation level, relative humidity (RH), precipitation amount, average wind speed, surface and air temperature (p < 0.05). The number of significant correlations between local meteorological parameters and monthly isotopes was much lower suggesting loss of information through data aggregation. Nonetheless, the most significant isotope driver at both event and monthly scales was RH, consistent with the semi-arid classification of the site. Multiple linear regression analysis suggested RH, precipitation amount and air temperature were the most significant local drivers of precipitation isotopes accounting for about 50% of the variation implying that about 50% could be attributed to source origins. HYSLPIT trajectories indicated that 78% of precipitation originated from the Indian Ocean while 21% originated from the Atlantic Ocean. Given that three of the four study years were droughts while two of the three drought years were El Niño related, our data also suggests that δ'17O-δ'18O could be a useful tool to

  6. State Supervision of Mines. Strategy and Programme for 2012-2016; Staatstoezicht op de Mijnen. Strategie en Programma voor 2012-2016

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2012-11-15

    State Supervision of Mines (SodM) supervises the observance of legal regulations that apply to the search for, extraction of and storage of minerals. The SodM focuses on aspects of safety, health, environment, efficient extraction and soil movements. Every five years, the SodM draws up a strategic document. This third strategic document concerns the period 2012-2016. The report provides an overview of the realizations of the last five years. Moreover an analysis is included of the policy developments in the fields of mineral extraction, safety, health and environment. Subsequently the consequences of these developments for SodM are examined. Based on these developments an elaboration is provided of the initiatives taken by SodM and an outlook of the programme of supervision projects for the next five years. This document also includes a communication plan, which illustrates when and how SodM goes public [Dutch] Staatstoezicht op de Mijnen (SodM) houdt toezicht op de naleving van wettelijke regelingen die van toepassing zijn op het opsporen, winnen, opslaan en transporteren van delfstoffen. De dienst richt zich hierbij op de aspecten veiligheid, gezondheid, milieu, doelmatige winning en bodembewegingen. Elke vijf jaar stelt SodM een strategiedocument op. Dit derde strategiedocument betreft de periode 2012-2016. In dit rapport wordt uiteengezet wat er de afgelopen vijf jaar is gerealiseerd. Tevens wordt een analyse geboden van de beleidsontwikkelingen op het terrein van delfstofwinning, veiligheid, gezondheid en milieu. Vervolgens wordt nagegaan, wat die ontwikkelingen betekenen voor SodM. Op basis van die ontwikkelingen wordt uiteengezet welke initiatieven SodM neemt en hoe het programma van toezichtprojecten er de komende vijf jaar uitziet. In het document is tevens een communicatieplan opgenomen, waaruit blijkt wanneer en hoe SodM naar buiten treedt.

  7. Analysis of Traffic Crash Data in Kentucky (2012-2016).

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-09-01

    This report documents an analysis of traffic crash data in Kentucky for the years of 2012 through 2016. A primary objective of this study was to determine average crash statistics for Kentucky highways. Rates were calculated for various types of high...

  8. High Temperature Falling Particle Receiver (2012 - 2016) - Final DOE Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ho, Clifford K. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2016-04-15

    The objective of this work was to advance falling particle receiver designs for concentrating solar power applications that will enable higher temperatures (>700 °C) and greater power-cycle efficiencies (≥50% thermal-to-electric). Modeling, design, and testing of components in Phases 1 and 2 led to the successful on-sun demonstration in Phase 3 of the world’s first continuously recirculating high-temperature 1 MWt falling particle receiver that achieved >700 °C particle outlet temperatures at mass flow rates ranging from 1 – 7 kg/s.

  9. Agence Francaise de Developpement. Strategic Orientation Plan 2012-2016

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2012-01-01

    Agence Francaise de Developpement (AFD) is a development finance institution that has been working to fight poverty and foster economic growth in developing countries and the French Overseas Communities for more than seventy years. It executes the policy defined by the French Government. AFD is present on five continents where it has an international network of 71 agencies and representation offices, including 9 in the French Overseas Communities and 1 in Brussels. It finances and supports projects that support more sustainable and shared economic growth, improve living conditions for the poorest, contribute to protecting the planet and help stabilize fragile or post-conflict states. It subsidiary, Proparco, supports private investment. AFD also works with French and international academic networks to feed into debates and forward planning on development. In 2011, AFD approved nearly euro 6.9 billion to finance activities in developing countries and the French Overseas Communities. The funds will help get 4 million children into primary school and 2 million into secondary school; they will also improve drinking water supply for 1.53 million people. Energy efficiency projects financed by AFD in 2011 will save nearly 3.8 million tons of CO_2 equivalent annually. After ten years of strong growth and substantial transformation at AFD, the third Strategic Orientation Plan (POS3) builds on the potential it has acquired. It aims to strengthen AFD and situate it within the framework of the new 'partnership for development' promoted by the French Government. In a rapidly changing international environment, AFD is underscoring its strategy to finance long-term development activities. The aim is to help communities build sustainable conditions to allow them to meet their priority needs, without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their needs. The attention given to the social and environmental dimensions of the projects it finances, along with their impact

  10. Recent progress on curcumin-based therapeutics: a patent review (2012-2016). Part I: Curcumin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Martino, Rita Maria Concetta; Luppi, Barbara; Bisi, Alessandra; Gobbi, Silvia; Rampa, Angela; Abruzzo, Angela; Belluti, Federica

    2017-05-01

    curcumin is the main bioactive component contained in Curcuma Longa, largely employed in traditional medicine. Recently, beneficial properties, useful for prevention and treatment of several disorders, have been discovered for this compound. Peculiar structural feature is an α,β-unsaturated carbonyl system essential for establishing contacts with critical cysteine residues of several targets. This distinctive mechanism of action imparts to the molecule the ability to affect a large number of targets, accounting for its pleiotropic behaviour and definition of "privileged structure". Areas covered: The objective of the review is an examination of the recent developments in the field of the anti-cancer applications of curcumin, together with formulation issues, considering the patent literature in the years 2012-2016. Expert opinion: The wide therapeutic efficacy of curcumin is related to synergistic interactions with several biological targets, along with the modulation of several signaling pathways. This peculiar behaviour could be useful in the treatment of multifactorial diseases such as cancer. Combination of curcumin with a first line antineoplastic drug proved to be a valuable strategy to obtain an amplified response with minimized side effects. Innovative curcumin formulations based on the nanotechnology approach allowed improving both bioavailability and therapeutic efficacy.

  11. International wind energy development. World market update 2011. Forecast 2012-2016

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2012-03-15

    The World Market Update 2011 is BTM Consult's seventeenth edition of this annual wind energy market report. The report includes more than 80 tables, charts and graphs illustrating global wind market development, as well as a wind market forecast for 2012 - 2016 and predictions for the wind market through 2021. The report delivers several views on the fast-growing wind market, including: 1) Record installation of 41.7 GW. 2) Strong presence of four Chinese wind turbine suppliers in the Top 10 list. 3) China maintains the No. 1 market position in the world, with 17.6 GW of new capacity. 4) Offshore wind is on track for increased contribution to wind power in Europe. 5) Market value will grow from Euro 52.2 billion in 2011 to Euro 86.3 billion in 2016. 6) Direct drive turbines now account for 21.2% of the world's supply of wind power capacity. 7) Wind power will deliver 2.26% of the world's electricity in 2012. 8) Forecasts and predictions to 2021 indicate that wind power can meet 8.0% of the world's consumption of electricity by 2021. International Wind Energy Development - World Update 2011 includes individual country wind market assessments, incentives around the world, and detailed analysis of both the demand and supply sides of the wind market in 2011. This year's report reviews the latest developments in hydraulic drivetrains, identifies the pros and cons, and compares the hydraulic technology to the industry's three currently established drivetrain technologies: conventional gear-, direct and hybrid-drivetrains. (Author)

  12. Cigarette Brand Preference and Pro-Tobacco Advertising Among Middle and High School Students - United States, 2012-2016.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perks, Siobhan N; Armour, Brian; Agaku, Israel T

    2018-02-02

    Nearly all adult smokers first try cigarettes before age 18 years (1), and adolescents can show symptoms of nicotine dependence within days to weeks of the onset of occasional cigarette smoking (2). Having a usual cigarette brand among adolescent smokers could reflect exposure and receptivity to pro-tobacco advertising and tobacco product appeal (1). To identify usual cigarette brands smoked among U.S. middle and high school students who were current (past 30-day) cigarette smokers, CDC analyzed data from the 2012-2016 National Youth Tobacco Survey (NYTS). Marlboro, Newport, and Camel were the most commonly reported brands smoked during 2012-2016; in 2016, these three were the brands usually smoked for 73.1% and 78.7% of current cigarette smokers in middle and high school, respectively. These three brands also were the three most commonly identified as having a "favorite cigarette ad" in 2012. Efforts to reduce youth exposure to pro-tobacco advertising could help reduce youth smoking (1,3).

  13. Prevalence and antimicrobial susceptibility of Ureaplasma species and Mycoplasma hominis in Greek female outpatients, 2012-2016.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maraki, Sofia; Mavromanolaki, Viktoria Eirini; Nioti, Eleni; Stafylaki, Dimitra; Minadakis, George

    2017-11-28

    Mycoplasma hominis and Ureaplasma species are opportunistic pathogens associated with urogenital infections, complications during pregnancy and postpartum infections. Appropriate empirical antimicrobial treatment is necessary to achieve an optimal therapeutic outcome. This study evaluated the prevalence and the antimicrobial susceptibility of Mycoplasma hominis and Ureaplasma spp. isolated from 1,008 endocervical samples of outpatients in Crete, Greece, during a five-year period (2012-2016), using the commercially available Mycoview kit (Zeakon diagnostics, France). Ureaplasma spp. was isolated from 116 patients (11.5%), M. hominis from 6 (0.6%), while coinfection with both mycoplasmas was demonstrated in 17 (1.7%). All Ureaplasma strains were susceptible to josamycin and doxycycline. Doxycycline, minocycline and ofloxacin were the most potent antibiotics against M. hominis. Docycycline was proved the most active and is still the drug of choice for the treatment of genital mycoplasma infections. Local surveillance to monitor changes in antimicrobial susceptibilities is necessary to guide treatment strategies.

  14. 2012-2016 Climate and Development Intervention Framework Agence Francaise de Developpement Group + Executive Summary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2014-01-01

    AFD has defined an ambitious strategy and action plan for 2012-2016 based on three core pillars. The operational components of these pillars are tailored to the different geographical areas of operation: An objective of a sustainable financial commitment to the climate representing 50% of AFD's allocations to developing countries and 30% of the allocations of PROPARCO, its private sector financing arm; A systematic measurement of the carbon footprint of funded projects, using a robust and transparent methodology; A policy of selecting projects according to their climate impacts, taking into account the level of development of the countries in question. This commitment is fully integrated into AFD's development assistance objectives and does not compete with its action to support poverty reduction and social development

  15. 77 FR 62623 - 2017 and Later Model Year Light-Duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Corporate Average Fuel...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-10-15

    ... changes to the regulations applicable to model years 2012-2016, with respect to air conditioner... standards for emissions of pollutants from new motor vehicles which emissions cause or contribute to air... same improvements in air conditioner efficiency. \\5\\ This is further broken down by 5.0 and 7.2 g/mi...

  16. Pathways Into and Out of the 2012-2016 California-Nevada Drought—Lessons for Future Drought and Drought Termination

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dettinger, M. D.

    2017-12-01

    Droughts in California have historically been a function of prolonged deficits of precipitation from the largest storms (much more so than from medium to weak storms), and drought endings typically reflect the return of those same large storms and more. The recent 2012-2016 drought in California followed this pattern, being bracketed by the extremely wet 2011 and 2017 water years, both brought about by the arrival of multiple major atmospheric river storms, and was marked by one of the episodic multi-year periods when these storms are diverted from the State by anomalous atmospheric circulations over the northeastern Pacific Ocean. The 2012-2016 episode was also marked by conditions that have been much less "normal" for California droughts, with record warm temperatures adding significantly to the drought and its impacts. Except in the highest mountains, these temperatures contributed as much to the drought potential as did precipitation deficits. The temperatures also led to record snow droughts that focused most in the low to middle altitude snowfields. Together the persistent precipitation deficits and high temperatures of this drought are a prescient example of a major drought with precipitation deficits emphasized at higher altitudes and temperature effects at lower altitudes. This drought ended with the remarkably wet 2017 water year, due to the arrival of a record number of large atmospheric river storms and associated precipitation. But this termination of precipitation drought was marked by its own flirtation with record-breaking "warm" snow drought conditions in late 2016 as well as by an eventual springtime snowpack that was very large but nowhere near as large as in other historical years with correspondingly large precipitation totals, especially at low to middle altitudes. These patterns of temperature-accentuated drought emphasized at lower altitudes and precipitation-driven droughts and drought endings emphasized at higher altitudes, both delineated

  17. Update: Exertional rhabdomyolysis, active component, U.S. Armed Forces, 2012-2016.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-03-01

    Among active component service members in 2016, there were 525 incident diagnoses of rhabdomyolysis likely due to physical exertion and/or heat stress ("exertional rhabdomyolysis"). The crude incidence rate in 2016 was 40.7 cases per 100,000 person-years. Annual rates of incident diagnoses of exertional rhabdomyolysis increased 46.2% between 2013 and 2016, with the greatest percentage change occurring between 2014 and 2015. In 2016, relative to their respective counterparts, the highest incidence rates of exertional rhabdomyolysis affected service members who were male; younger than 20 years of age; and black, non-Hispanic. During the surveillance period, annual incidence rates were highest among service members of the Marine Corps, intermediate among those in the Army, and lowest among those in the Air Force and Navy. Most cases of exertional rhabdomyolysis were diagnosed at installations that support basic combat/recruit training or major ground combat units of the Army or the Marine Corps. Medical care providers should consider exertional rhabdomyolysis in the differential diagnosis when service members (particularly recruits) present with muscular pain or swelling, limited range of motion, or the excretion of dark urine (possibly due to myoglobinuria) after strenuous physical activity, particularly in hot, humid weather.

  18. Nursing students inclusion of family system nursing in their bachelorette thesis from 2012-2016

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Voltelen, Barbara; Terkelsen, Anne Seneca

    course was not established due to organizational issues. Conclusion: Participation in family system nursing education could increase interest in family inclusion for nursing students. Further targeted evaluations are needed to measure student output from these family system nursing courses eg. by surveys......Background: Serious illness is a family affair. Since 2013 family system nursing, beyond paediatrics, was introduced in the undergraduate curriculum at a School of Nursing. Students were introduced to “think family” and had the opportunity to attend a longer optional course during the last half...... year of their education. Aim: The aim of this study was to explore if students choice of content has evolved towards more family inclusion in their bachelorette thesis after implementation of family system nursing in the curriculum. Methods: We used a descriptive quantitative retrospective approach...

  19. Immunizations under sedation at a paediatric hospital in Melbourne, Australia from 2012-2016.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Daryl R; Elia, Sonja; Perrett, Kirsten P

    2018-05-09

    Sedation for immunizations is of particular importance in a subset of paediatric patients with anxiety disorders, needle phobia, developmental or behavioural disorders. The Royal Children's Hospital (RCH) Melbourne offers a unique immunization under sedation service for these patients. We aimed to evaluate the number and types of patients using inpatient sedation for immunizations, distraction and sedation techniques used, and outcomes of these procedures. A medical record review was conducted on all patients who had immunization under sedation between January 2012 to December 2016 in the RCH Day Medical Unit (DMU). A total of 139 children and adolescents had 213 vaccination encounters. More than half of the vaccination encounters involved multiple vaccines. A total of 400 vaccines were administered. One third of patients (32.3%) had multiple DMU admissions for vaccinations. The median age of patients was 13 years. There were only 10 (4.7%) failed attempts at vaccination; all due to patient non-compliance with prescribed sedation. The majority of patients (58.9%) had a diagnosis of needle phobia. Sedation was most commonly adequately achieved with inhaled nitrous oxide (54.7% sole agent). Midazolam was often used as an adjunct therapy (42.8%). Local anaesthetic cream or play therapy, were used in only 5.9% and 3.9% of patients respectively, although this may reflect poor documentation rather than actual practice. For a subset of paediatric patients for which standard immunization procedures have failed, distraction techniques and conscious sedation enable immunizations to be given safely and effectively. Future research will develop protocols to streamline immunization procedures under sedation. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. [Acquired angioedema – clinical characteristic of the patients diagnosed in 2012-2016 with acquired C1 inhibitor deficiency].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stobiecki, Marcin; Czarnobilska, Ewa; Obtułowicz, Krystyna

    Acquired angioedema is a rare disease caused by a deficiency of C1 esterase inhibitor with recurrent swelling symptoms. It may occur in the course of lymphoproliferative disorders or autoimmune diseases. Symptoms resemble hereditary angioedema, and the only differentiating features is negative family history, late onset of symptoms and accompanying lymphoproliferative disorder. The aim of the study was to analyze the cases of acquired angioedema. The retrospective analysis of 341 patients from the registry of patients with C1 inhibitor deficiency. Results: We identified 4 patients among 119 with HAE (3.57%) diagnosed in this same period of time 2012-2016 who fulfilled the criteria of acquired edema. In two cases the primary reason of angioedema was lymphoproliferive disease, in two monoclonal gammapathy of unknown reason. We analyzed also the results of laboratory tests C4, C1 inhibitor, C1q. In all cases the face was dominated localization. After the treatment of primary lymphoproliferive disease, in two cases, we observed total remission of angioedema. Only one patient with gammapathy require treatment with C1 inhibitor during the attacks. In these case we observed both plasma deriver, and recombinant C1 inhibitor were effective.

  1. The evolution of insecticide resistance in the brown planthopper (Nilaparvata lugens Stål) of China in the period 2012-2016.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Shun-Fan; Zeng, Bin; Zheng, Chen; Mu, Xi-Chao; Zhang, Yong; Hu, Jun; Zhang, Shuai; Gao, Cong-Fen; Shen, Jin-Liang

    2018-03-15

    The brown planthopper, Nilaparvata lugens, is an economically important pest on rice in Asia. Chemical control is still the most efficient primary way for rice planthopper control. However, due to the intensive use of insecticides to control this pest over many years, resistance to most of the classes of chemical insecticides has been reported. In this article, we report on the status of eight insecticides resistance in Nilaparvata lugens (Stål) collected from China over the period 2012-2016. All of the field populations collected in 2016 had developed extremely high resistance to imidacloprid, thiamethoxam, and buprofezin. Synergism tests showed that piperonyl butoxide (PBO) produced a high synergism of imidacloprid, thiamethoxam, and buprofezin effects in the three field populations, YA2016, HX2016, and YC2016. Functional studies using both double-strand RNA (dsRNA)-mediated knockdown in the expression of CYP6ER1 and transgenic expression of CYP6ER1 in Drosophila melanogaster showed that CYP6ER1 confers imidacloprid, thiamethoxam and buprofezin resistance. These results will be beneficial for effective insecticide resistance management strategies to prevent or delay the development of insecticide resistance in brown planthopper populations.

  2. Assessment of Closed Point-of-Dispensing (POD) Preparedness in St. Louis County, Missouri, 2012-2016.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rebmann, Terri; Anthony, John; Loux, Travis M; Mulroy, Julia; Sitzes, Rikki

    Little is known about closed point-of-dispensing (POD) site preparedness-especially how these entities progress in their preparedness efforts over time. The purpose of this study was to assess the preparedness of a closed POD network. Between 2012 and 2016, 30% to 50% of POD entities in the St. Louis County region were assessed each year, for a total of 138 site evaluations from 62 entities. The assessment tool included 41 components of closed POD preparedness, each scored either 0 = not met or 1 = met. POD preparedness scores could range from 0 to 41. Chi-square tests were conducted to compare the percentage of entities that had each preparedness indicator. A multilevel linear model with a random intercept for each agency was used to model longitudinal changes in closed POD preparedness. POD preparedness scores were higher in 2016 than in 2012 (31.5 vs. 26.5, t = 14.3, p trend in preparedness, and, on average, entities met only 65.4% of the preparedness indicators. Only a third of entities reported hosting a POD exercise at least once every 2 years (32.3%, n = 20). From the multilevel regression, determinants of better POD preparedness include having been assessed more often, employing a business continuity expert, and not being a long-term care agency. Closed POD entities should continue to work toward better preparedness, to better ensure successful deployment. Findings from this study indicate that more frequent assessments likely enhance preparedness at closed POD entities.

  3. Final Report: Mass Production Cost Estimation of Direct H2 PEM Fuel Cell Systems for Transportation Applications (2012-2016)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    James, Brian David [Strategic Analysis Inc., Arlington, VA (United States); Huya-Kouadio, Jennie Moton [Strategic Analysis Inc., Arlington, VA (United States); Houchins, Cassidy [Strategic Analysis Inc., Arlington, VA (United States); DeSantis, Daniel Allen [Strategic Analysis Inc., Arlington, VA (United States)

    2016-09-01

    This report summarizes project activities for Strategic Analysis, Inc. (SA) Contract Number DE-EE0005236 to the U.S. Department of Energy titled “Transportation Fuel Cell System Cost Assessment”. The project defined and projected the mass production costs of direct hydrogen Proton Exchange Membrane fuel cell power systems for light-duty vehicles (automobiles) and 40-foot transit buses. In each year of the five-year contract, the fuel cell power system designs and cost projections were updated to reflect technology advances. System schematics, design assumptions, manufacturing assumptions, and cost results are presented.

  4. [Epidemiological characteristics of newly reported HIV infections in Chinese and Burmese residents, during 2012-2016 in Dehong Dai and Jingpo Autonomous Prefecture, Yunnan province].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, J B; Chen, X C; Duan, X; Yang, J; Wang, Y K; Yang, T; Ye, R H; Yang, Y C; Yao, S T; Jiang, Y; Duan, S; He, N

    2017-10-10

    Objective: To understand the epidemiological characteristics of newly reported HIV infections in Chinese and Burmese residents during 2012-2016 in Dehong Dai and Jingpo Autonomous Prefecture of Yunnan province (Dehong) and to provide evidence for the development of related programs on prevention and control. Methods: All the HIV infections who were newly reported during 2012-2016 in Dehong, were recruited as the study subjects, with epidemiological characteristics of the cases analyzed by using the software SPSS 22.0. Results: A total of 5 692 HIV infections were newly reported between 2012 and 2016 (including 5 592 in this study), in which the Chinese patients accounted for 43.3 % (2 419) and the rest 56.7 % (3 173) were Burmese. Differences in age, gender and other social characteristics of these newly reported HIV infections were statistically significant between the Chinese and the Burmese (all p -values Chinese patients but through injecting drug use among the Burmese patients. Conclusions: Epidemiological characteristics of the newly reported HIV infections were different between the Chinese and the Burmese, between 2012 and 2016 in Dehong. Targeted prevention and control programs should be taken.

  5. An Evaluation of Treatment Outcomes in a Cohort of Clients on the DOTS Strategy, 2012-2016.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tetteh, Ato Kwamena; Agyarko, Edward; Otchere, Joseph; Bimi, Langbong; Ayi, Irene

    2018-01-01

    We present, for the first time, an evaluation of treatment outcomes in a cohort at a TB referral centre in the Central Region of Ghana. Of the 213 clients placed on DOTS, 59.2% (126/213) were sputum smear-positive. An overall cure rate of 90.2% (51.6% cured + 37.6% completed) and a death rate of 8.5% (18/213) were estimated. Of the number of clients who died, 5.7% (12/213) were males ( χ 2 = 2.891, p = 0.699; LR = 3.004, p = 0.699). Deaths were only recorded among clients who were > 19 years old ( χ 2 = 40.319, p = 0.099; LR = 41.244, p = 0.083). Also, 0.9% (2/213) was lost to follow-up, while 1.4% (3/213) had treatment failure. In total, 13.6% (7.0%, 15/213 males, and 6.6%, 14/213 females) of clients who were placed on DOTS were HIV seropositive. Ages of 40-49 years had the highest number, 13/213 (6.1%), infected with HIV, though the difference among the remaining age groups was not statistically significant ( χ 2 = 9.621, p = 0.142). Furthermore, 7.0% (15/213) had TB/HIV coinfection. Out of them, 9 were cured and 5 died at home, while 1 had treatment failure. Tuberculosis/HIV infection prevention advocacy and interventions that address sociodemographic determinants of unfavourable treatment outcomes are urgently required to augment national efforts towards control.

  6. Fleet Compliance Annual Report: Model Year 2015, Fiscal Year 2016

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2016-12-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) regulates covered state government and alternative fuel provider fleets, pursuant to the Energy Policy Act of 1992 (EPAct), as amended. This report details compliance for model year 2015, fiscal year 2016.

  7. The 2012-2016 eruptive cycle at Copahue volcano (Argentina) versus the peripheral gas manifestations: hints from the chemical and isotopic features of fumarolic fluids

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tassi, F.; Agusto, M.; Lamberti, C.; Caselli, A. T.; Pecoraino, G.; Caponi, C.; Szentiványi, J.; Venturi, S.; Vaselli, O.

    2017-10-01

    This study presents the chemical and isotopic compositions of hydrothermal gases from fumaroles discharging around Copahue volcano (Argentina). Gas samples, including those from two fumaroles at the active summit crater, were collected during 13 surveys carried out by different research teams from 1976 to February 2016. The time-series of H2, CO and light hydrocarbons showed episodic increases related to the main events of the last eruptive cycle that started on 19 July 2012. Concentration peaks were likely caused by enhanced input of hot magmatic fluids affecting the hydrothermal reservoir. These data contrast with the temporal variations shown by Rc/ Ra and δ13C-CO2 values in 2012-2014, which indicated an increasing input from a crustal fluid source. In 2015-2016, however, these isotopic parameters showed opposite trends; their composition became closer to that of the two summit fumaroles, which possibly corresponds to that of the deep magmatic-related end-member. The delayed and reduced compositional changes in the peripheral hydrothermal fluid discharge in response to the 2012-2016 eruptive events suggest that geochemical surveys of these emissions are unlikely to provide premonitory signals of volcanic unrest if the volcanic activity remains centered in the main crater. Instead, an instrument which is able to provide measurements of volcanic gases in the air (e.g. MultiGAS) may be used to detect changes at the summit crater. Otherwise, monitoring of seismic activity and ground deformation, as well as the periodic measurement of the chemistry of the water in the Rio Agrio, which is fed by thermal discharge from the summit crater, seem to represent the most reliable means of monitoring at Copahue. However, the relative compositional stability of the hydrothermal reservoir is a great advantage in terms of geothermal resource exploitation and could encourage new investments in the Copahue geothermal project which was abandoned in the 1990s.

  8. Factors associated with hepatitis C prevalence differ by the stage of liver fibrosis: A cross-sectional study in the general population in Poland, 2012-2016.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Magdalena Rosińska

    Full Text Available There is a considerable burden of hepatitis C in Europe related to the lack of prompt diagnosis. We aimed to estimate the prevalence and related risk factors of HCV infections by the stages of liver fibrosis, using non-invasive methods, to understand testing needs in Poland.A cross-sectional study was conducted in 2012-2016 adopting a stratified random sampling of primary health care units followed by systematic sampling of patients within each unit. Study participants filled a questionnaire and donated blood for laboratory HCV testing. Additionally, the results of liver function tests and platelet count were collected to calculate APRI and FIB-4 scores. Cases were classified according to the level of fibrosis: 'significant fibrosis' (APRI≥0.7 or FIB4≥1.45 and 'no significant fibrosis' (APRI<0.7 and FIB4<1.45.Of 21 875 study participants, 102 were HCV-RNA positive. Prevalence of HCV infections and significant fibrosis was estimated at 0.47% (95% CI 0.38% - 0.57% and 0.12% (0.08% - 0.17%, respectively. Cases with significant fibrosis accounted for 51.6% (33.4%-69.9% in men and 34.4% (17.3%-51.4% in women. There was no correlation between the HCV prevalence and age. Blood transfusion prior to 1992 strongly predicted significant fibrosis as did the history of injecting drug use (IDU and ever having an HCV-infected sexual partner in men and caesarean sections in women. Factors associated with HCV infection without significant fibrosis were tattooing in men and younger age in women. We acknowledge limited possibility to study the associations between IDU and ever having HCV-infected sexual partner, given small sample sizes for these exposures.As no clear birth cohort affected by HCV could be identified, risk factor-based screening in the general population should be considered, taking into account the association between the increased risk of liver fibrosis and the history of transfusion prior to 1992 and caesarean sections.

  9. Recent progress on curcumin-based therapeutics: a patent review (2012-2016). Part II: curcumin derivatives in cancer and neurodegeneration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Martino, Rita Maria Concetta; Bisi, Alessandra; Rampa, Angela; Gobbi, Silvia; Belluti, Federica

    2017-08-01

    Curcumin, the main bioactive compound found in the rhizome of Curcuma longa L., is considered a 'privileged structure', due to its ability to modulate different signaling pathways involved in the pathogenesis of several diseases. Unfortunately, its poor pharmacodynamic and pharmacokinetic properties, mainly related to chemical instability, low solubility and rapid metabolism, greatly reduce its therapeutic potential. In the last years a number of derivatives were developed and patented, aimed both at improving its multifaceted biological profile and overcoming its undesired effects. Areas covered: This review summarizes the patent literature of the last five years dealing with synthetic curcumin-related compounds in cancer and neurodegeneration, properly designed in order to avoid the so-called 'dark side of curcumin', and to take advantage of the beneficial properties of this molecule, worth to be further exploited to obtain effective therapeutics. Expert opinion: Due to the synergistic binding to several networked targets, curcumin turned out to be suitable for polypharmacological approaches, and its 'privileged structure' could also provide the key scaffold to develop novel multipotent drugs useful for treating multifactiorial pathologic conditions such as cancer and neurodegeneration.

  10. 49 CFR 537.7 - Pre-model year and mid-model year reports.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... accordance with subpart D of 40 CFR part 600, (2) Body style, (3) Beginning model year 2010, base tire as...) Passenger-carrying volume, (2) Cargo-carrying volume, (3) Beginning model year 2008, base tire as defined in...; (ii) Departure angle; (iii) Breakover angle; (iv) Axle clearance; (v) Minimum running clearance; and...

  11. The standard model 30 years of glory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lefrancois, J.

    2001-03-01

    In these 3 lectures the author reviews the achievements of the past 30 years, which saw the birth and the detailed confirmation of the standard model. The first lecture is dedicated to quantum chromodynamics (QCD), deep inelastic scattering, neutrino scattering results, R(e + ,e - ), scaling violation, Drell-Yan reactions and the observation of jets. The second lecture deals with weak interactions and quark and lepton families, the discovery of W and Z bosons, of charm, of the tau lepton and B quarks are detailed. The third lecture focuses on the stunning progress that have been made in accuracy concerning detectors, the typical level of accuracy of previous e + e - experiments was about 5-10%, while the accuracy obtained at LEP/SLC is of order 0.1% to 0.5%. (A.C.)

  12. The standard model 30 years of glory

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lefrancois, J

    2001-03-01

    In these 3 lectures the author reviews the achievements of the past 30 years, which saw the birth and the detailed confirmation of the standard model. The first lecture is dedicated to quantum chromodynamics (QCD), deep inelastic scattering, neutrino scattering results, R(e{sup +},e{sup -}), scaling violation, Drell-Yan reactions and the observation of jets. The second lecture deals with weak interactions and quark and lepton families, the discovery of W and Z bosons, of charm, of the tau lepton and B quarks are detailed. The third lecture focuses on the stunning progress that have been made in accuracy concerning detectors, the typical level of accuracy of previous e{sup +}e{sup -} experiments was about 5-10%, while the accuracy obtained at LEP/SLC is of order 0.1% to 0.5%. (A.C.)

  13. Product modelling: '20 years of stalemate'?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Galle, Per

    1998-01-01

    In a recent special issue of Design Studies Michael Ramscar, John Lee, and Helen Pain level a severe criticism against a field of research known as product modeling; a criticism that would be rather damaging if it were based on cogent arguments. I shall argue in this paper that it is not....

  14. One Hundred Years of Bohr Model

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    IAS Admin

    In this article I shall present a brief review of the .... By 1900, the amount of information available about .... resulting value was in quite good agreement with the .... It is fair to say that Bohr's model of the atom is simple, elegant, revolutionary but ...

  15. Euthanasia and assisted suicide for people with an intellectual disability and/or autism spectrum disorder: an examination of nine relevant euthanasia cases in the Netherlands (2012-2016).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tuffrey-Wijne, Irene; Curfs, Leopold; Finlay, Ilora; Hollins, Sheila

    2018-03-05

    Euthanasia and assisted suicide (EAS) have been legally possible in the Netherlands since 2001, provided that statutory due care criteria are met, including: (a) voluntary and well-considered request; (b) unbearable suffering without prospect of improvement; (c) informing the patient; (d) lack of a reasonable alternative; (e) independent second physician's opinion. 'Unbearable suffering' must have a medical basis, either somatic or psychiatric, but there is no requirement of limited life expectancy. All EAS cases must be reported and are scrutinised by regional review committees (RTE). The purpose of this study was to investigate whether any particular difficulties arise when the EAS due care criteria are applied to patients with an intellectual disability and/or autism spectrum disorder. The 416 case summaries available on the RTE website (2012-2016) were searched for intellectual disability (6) and autism spectrum disorder (3). Direct content analysis was used on these nine cases. Assessment of decisional capacity was mentioned in eight cases, but few details given; in two cases, there had been uncertainty or disagreement about capacity. Two patients had progressive somatic conditions. For most, suffering was due to an inability to cope with changing circumstances or increasing dependency; in several cases, suffering was described in terms of characteristics of living with an autism spectrum disorder, rather than an acquired medical condition. Some physicians struggled to understand the patient's perspective. Treatment refusal was a common theme, leading physicians to conclude that EAS was the only remaining option. There was a lack of detail on social circumstances and how patients were informed about their prognosis. Autonomy and decisional capacity are highly complex for patients with intellectual disabilities and difficult to assess; capacity tests in these cases did not appear sufficiently stringent. Assessment of suffering is particularly difficult for

  16. Vermont travel model 2010-2011 (year 3) report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-10-01

    This report is being prepared under Task 1 of the Maintenance, Operation and Evaluation of the VTrans Statewide Transportation Model contract with the Vermont Agency of Transportation (VTrans) in the 2010-2011 year of the contract. The objectiv...

  17. Prices, production, and inventories over the automotive model year

    OpenAIRE

    Adam Copeland; Wendy E. Dunn; George J. Hall

    2005-01-01

    This paper studies the within-model-year pricing and production of new automobiles. Using new monthly data on U.S. transaction prices, we document that for the typical new vehicle, prices typically fall over the model year at a 9.2 percent annual rate. Concurrently, both sales and inventories are hump shaped. To explain these time series, we formulate a market equilibrium model for new automobiles in which inventory and pricing decisions are made simultaneously. On the demand side, we use mic...

  18. Regional forecasting with global atmospheric models; Third year report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Crowley, T.J.; North, G.R.; Smith, N.R. [Applied Research Corp., College Station, TX (United States)

    1994-05-01

    This report was prepared by the Applied Research Corporation (ARC), College Station, Texas, under subcontract to Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) as part of a global climate studies task. The task supports site characterization work required for the selection of a potential high-level nuclear waste repository and is part of the Performance Assessment Scientific Support (PASS) Program at PNL. The work is under the overall direction of the Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM), US Department of Energy Headquarters, Washington, DC. The scope of the report is to present the results of the third year`s work on the atmospheric modeling part of the global climate studies task. The development testing of computer models and initial results are discussed. The appendices contain several studies that provide supporting information and guidance to the modeling work and further details on computer model development. Complete documentation of the models, including user information, will be prepared under separate reports and manuals.

  19. Luttinger model the first 50 years and some new directions

    CERN Document Server

    Mattis, Daniel C

    2014-01-01

    The Luttinger Model is the only model of many-fermion physics with legitimate claims to be both exactly and completely solvable. In several respects it plays the same role in many-body theory as does the 2D Ising model in statistical physics. Interest in the Luttinger model has increased steadily ever since its introduction half a century ago. The present volume starts with reprints of the seminal papers in which it was originally introduced and solved, and continues with several contributions setting out the landscape of the principal advances of the last fifty years and of prominent new dire

  20. Cirugía de pacientes con cardiopatía congénita en España en el período 2012-2016: registro de intervenciones de la Sociedad Española de Cirugía Torácica-Cardiovascular

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luz Polo López

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Resumen: La Sociedad Española de Cirugía Torácica-Cardiovascular presenta los resultados de actividad en cirugía cardiovascular sobre pacientes con cardiopatía congénita correspondientes al período 2012-2016 basado en un registro voluntario y anónimo de los centros españoles. Este artículo es complementario al registro general del año 2016 y ambos se publican conjuntamente. Mostramos datos de los últimos 5 años, coincidiendo con la fecha en que realizamos la última modificación del registro, para obtener una información más real de nuestra actividad en estas patologías relativamente infrecuentes. En el último quinquenio se realizaron un total de 10.863 cirugías en cardiopatías congénitas, que suponen un 10% de la cirugía mayor (congénita + adquirida realizada en nuestro país durante ese tiempo. De estas 10.863 cirugías, el 79% se hizo con circulación extracorpórea y el 21% sin ella. Destacan las intervenciones en 2 franjas etarias, ya que tanto la cirugía neonatal como la del paciente adulto suponen respectivamente un 19% del total de esta actividad. Las cirugías más prevalentes de cardiopatías congénitas las constituyen los defectos septales en los casos que requieren circulación extracorpórea y los ductus en pacientes operados sin circulación extracorpórea. Presentamos los datos ajustados a la escala Aristóteles básico de riesgo quirúrgico preoperatorio. La mortalidad observada en cirugías con circulación extracorpórea fue 3,21% (Aristóteles 7% y en cirugías sin circulación extracorpórea 2,24% (Aristóteles 4,57%. Este análisis de datos muestra información precisa y fiable de nuestra actividad quirúrgica en cardiopatías congénitas y permite compararnos dentro de un marco internacional para organizar estrategias de mejora de nuestros resultados. Abstract: The Spanish Society of Thoracic-Cardiovascular Surgery presents the 2012-2016 report of the activity in congenital cardiovascular surgery

  1. 77 FR 57186 - Technical Report on Fatality Risk, Mass, and Footprint of Model Year 2000-2007 Passenger Cars and...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-09-17

    ...-based CAFE and GHG standards. An important corollary issue is the possible effect of mass reduction that.../staticfiles/rulemaking/pdf/cafe/CAFE_2012-2016_FRIA_04012010.pdf , pp. 464-542); 2003 (68 FR 66153, Docket No...

  2. 76 FR 73008 - Technical Report on Fatality Risk, Mass, and Footprint of Model Year 2000-2007 Passenger Cars and...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-11-28

    ... (size) constant is a potential strategy for meeting footprint-based CAFE and GHG standards. An important.../staticfiles/rulemaking/pdf/cafe/CAFE_2012-2016_FRIA_04012010.pdf , pp. 464-542); 2003 (68 FR 66153, Docket No...

  3. Model Year 2017 Fuel Economy Guide: EPA Fuel Economy Estimates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2016-11-01

    The Fuel Economy Guide is published by the U.S. Department of Energy as an aid to consumers considering the purchase of a new vehicle. The Guide lists estimates of miles per gallon (mpg) for each vehicle available for the new model year. These estimates are provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in compliance with Federal Law. By using this Guide, consumers can estimate the average yearly fuel cost for any vehicle. The Guide is intended to help consumers compare the fuel economy of similarly sized cars, light duty trucks and special purpose vehicles.

  4. Model Year 2012 Fuel Economy Guide: EPA Fuel Economy Estimates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2011-11-01

    The Fuel Economy Guide is published by the U.S. Department of Energy as an aid to consumers considering the purchase of a new vehicle. The Guide lists estimates of miles per gallon (mpg) for each vehicle available for the new model year. These estimates are provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in compliance with Federal Law. By using this Guide, consumers can estimate the average yearly fuel cost for any vehicle. The Guide is intended to help consumers compare the fuel economy of similarly sized cars, light duty trucks and special purpose vehicles.

  5. Model Year 2013 Fuel Economy Guide: EPA Fuel Economy Estimates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2012-12-01

    The Fuel Economy Guide is published by the U.S. Department of Energy as an aid to consumers considering the purchase of a new vehicle. The Guide lists estimates of miles per gallon (mpg) for each vehicle available for the new model year. These estimates are provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in compliance with Federal Law. By using this Guide, consumers can estimate the average yearly fuel cost for any vehicle. The Guide is intended to help consumers compare the fuel economy of similarly sized cars, light duty trucks and special purpose vehicles.

  6. Model Year 2011 Fuel Economy Guide: EPA Fuel Economy Estimates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2010-11-01

    The Fuel Economy Guide is published by the U.S. Department of Energy as an aid to consumers considering the purchase of a new vehicle. The Guide lists estimates of miles per gallon (mpg) for each vehicle available for the new model year. These estimates are provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in compliance with Federal Law. By using this Guide, consumers can estimate the average yearly fuel cost for any vehicle. The Guide is intended to help consumers compare the fuel economy of similarly sized cars, light duty trucks and special purpose vehicles.

  7. Model Year 2018 Fuel Economy Guide: EPA Fuel Economy Estimates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2017-12-07

    The Fuel Economy Guide is published by the U.S. Department of Energy as an aid to consumers considering the purchase of a new vehicle. The Guide lists estimates of miles per gallon (mpg) for each vehicle available for the new model year. These estimates are provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in compliance with Federal Law. By using this Guide, consumers can estimate the average yearly fuel cost for any vehicle. The Guide is intended to help consumers compare the fuel economy of similarly sized cars, light duty trucks and special purpose vehicles.

  8. 15 years of food-chain modeling in Romania

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gheorghe, R.; Galeriu, D.; Apostoaie, I.; Gheorghe, D.

    2002-01-01

    In the very begin of Chernobyl accident, the high contamination of food, the large variability and the unexpected behavior posed many problems in order to assess the radiological consequences. A simple dynamic food-chain model was built in early May and used for our first assessment on future food contamination and overall impact of Chernobyl in Romania. This quite primitive model show remarkable performance when compared in late 86 and 87 with measurements and our projection of dose was close to a factor two with 10 years later post assessment. After the slowing down of radiological stress we developed a more advanced, process level model of food chain, using not only all literature available but also all local measurements with quality assurance. This model, named LINDOZ, was first internationally applied in the frame of A4 scenario in BIOMOVS 1. and presented in the 1990 Stockholm conference. It was the first time when fallout solubility and foliar absorption were introduced in such a model, explaining very well the dynamics of grass and milk contamination. Upgrades of the model were done concerning deposition and retention and LINDOZ91 was successfully applied in international comparisons VAMP and BIOMOVS 2., including blind tests. Using local expertise and certified data, correlation between probability distribution of deposition and food contamination were used and successfully applied to predict Cs body content distribution in VAMP scenario. Extension to lake-fish was done and tested with excellent results in BIOMOVS 2. In 1994, the model was applied in the first attempt to assess food contamination in Iput region and this old results have been compared recently with those obtained last year by other modelers using updated scenario information. The key points in LINDOZ and its performances in international comparison exercises are presented. In 90'years the German model ECOSYS was spread in Europe and a variant (FDMT) was developed as a food-chain model for

  9. Computable general equilibrium model fiscal year 2013 capability development report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Edwards, Brian Keith [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Rivera, Michael Kelly [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Boero, Riccardo [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2016-05-17

    This report documents progress made on continued developments of the National Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis Center (NISAC) Computable General Equilibrium Model (NCGEM), developed in fiscal year 2012. In fiscal year 2013, NISAC the treatment of the labor market and tests performed with the model to examine the properties of the solutions computed by the model. To examine these, developers conducted a series of 20 simulations for 20 U.S. States. Each of these simulations compared an economic baseline simulation with an alternative simulation that assumed a 20-percent reduction in overall factor productivity in the manufacturing industries of each State. Differences in the simulation results between the baseline and alternative simulations capture the economic impact of the reduction in factor productivity. While not every State is affected in precisely the same way, the reduction in manufacturing industry productivity negatively affects the manufacturing industries in each State to an extent proportional to the reduction in overall factor productivity. Moreover, overall economic activity decreases when manufacturing sector productivity is reduced. Developers ran two additional simulations: (1) a version of the model for the State of Michigan, with manufacturing divided into two sub-industries (automobile and other vehicle manufacturing as one sub-industry and the rest of manufacturing as the other subindustry); and (2) a version of the model for the United States, divided into 30 industries. NISAC conducted these simulations to illustrate the flexibility of industry definitions in NCGEM and to examine the simulation properties of in more detail.

  10. Yearly, seasonal and monthly daily average diffuse sky radiation models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kassem, A.S.; Mujahid, A.M.; Turner, D.W.

    1993-01-01

    A daily average diffuse sky radiation regression model based on daily global radiation was developed utilizing two year data taken near Blytheville, Arkansas (Lat. =35.9 0 N, Long. = 89.9 0 W), U.S.A. The model has a determination coefficient of 0.91 and 0.092 standard error of estimate. The data were also analyzed for a seasonal dependence and four seasonal average daily models were developed for the spring, summer, fall and winter seasons. The coefficient of determination is 0.93, 0.81, 0.94 and 0.93, whereas the standard error of estimate is 0.08, 0.102, 0.042 and 0.075 for spring, summer, fall and winter, respectively. A monthly average daily diffuse sky radiation model was also developed. The coefficient of determination is 0.92 and the standard error of estimate is 0.083. A seasonal monthly average model was also developed which has 0.91 coefficient of determination and 0.085 standard error of estimate. The developed monthly daily average and daily models compare well with a selected number of previously developed models. (author). 11 ref., figs., tabs

  11. Networking strategies of the microscopy community for improved utilization of advanced instruments: (3) Two European initiatives to support TEM infrastructures and promote electron microscopy over Europe, ESTEEM (2006-2011) and ESTEEM 2 (2012-2016)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Snoeck, E.; Van Tendeloo, G.

    2014-01-01

    The ESTEEM consortium of electron microscopy laboratories for materials science and solid-state physics has been created as an EU-supported delocalized infrastructure to bring together the major electron microscopy centres in Europe. Its main objectives were to develop networking, to offer trans-national access to these centres with specialized and complementary techniques and skills and to upgrade in close collaboration different technical and methodological aspects such as tomography, spectroscopy, holography, detectors, and specimen holders. These efforts were aimed to strengthen the position of European microscopy and to generate new technologies potentially of high relevance in many domains identified as strategic. Following the success of the first program, ESTEEM has been conducted again in 2012 for 4 more years with an enlarged set of partners. (authors)

  12. State and Alternative Fuel Provider Fleets - Fleet Compliance Annual Report: Model Year 2015, Fiscal Year 2016

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2016-12-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) regulates covered state government and alternative fuel provider fleets, pursuant to the Energy Policy Act of 1992 (EPAct), as amended. Covered fleets may meet their EPAct requirements through one of two compliance methods: Standard Compliance or Alternative Compliance. For model year (MY) 2015, the compliance rate with this program for the more than 3011 reporting fleets was 100%. More than 294 fleets used Standard Compliance and exceeded their aggregate MY 2015 acquisition requirements by 8% through acquisitions alone. The seven covered fleets that used Alternative Compliance exceeded their aggregate MY 2015 petroleum use reduction requirements by 46%.

  13. Model Year 2015 Fuel Economy Guide: EPA Fuel Economy Estimates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2014-12-01

    The Fuel Economy Guide is published by the U.S. Department of Energy as an aid to consumers considering the purchase of a new vehicle. The Guide lists estimates of miles per gallon (mpg) for each vehicle available for the new model year. These estimates are provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in compliance with Federal Law. By using this Guide, consumers can estimate the average yearly fuel cost for any vehicle. The Guide is intended to help consumers compare the fuel economy of similarly sized cars, light duty trucks and special purpose vehicles. The vehicles listed have been divided into three classes of cars, three classes of light duty trucks, and three classes of special purpose vehicles.

  14. Model Year 2009 Fuel Economy Guide: EPA Fuel Economy Estimates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2008-10-01

    The Fuel Economy Guide is published by the U.S. Department of Energy as an aid to consumers considering the purchase of a new vehicle. The Guide lists estimates of miles per gallon (mpg) for each vehicle available for the new model year. These estimates are provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in compliance with Federal Law. By using this Guide, consumers can estimate the average yearly fuel cost for any vehicle. The Guide is intended to help consumers compare the fuel economy of similarly sized cars, light duty trucks and special purpose vehicles. The vehicles listed have been divided into three classes of cars, three classes of light duty trucks, and three classes of special purpose vehicles.

  15. Model Year 2005 Fuel Economy Guide: EPA Fuel Economy Estimates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2004-11-01

    The Fuel Economy Guide is published by the U.S. Department of Energy as an aid to consumers considering the purchase of a new vehicle. The Guide lists estimates of miles per gallon (mpg) for each vehicle available for the new model year. These estimates are provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in compliance with Federal Law. By using this Guide, consumers can estimate the average yearly fuel cost for any vehicle. The Guide is intended to help consumers compare the fuel economy of similarly sized cars, light duty trucks and special purpose vehicles. The vehicles listed have been divided into three classes of cars, three classes of light duty trucks, and three classes of special purpose vehicles.

  16. Model Year 2016 Fuel Economy Guide: EPA Fuel Economy Estimates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2015-11-01

    The Fuel Economy Guide is published by the U.S. Department of Energy as an aid to consumers considering the purchase of a new vehicle. The Guide lists estimates of miles per gallon (mpg) for each vehicle available for the new model year. These estimates are provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in compliance with Federal Law. By using this Guide, consumers can estimate the average yearly fuel cost for any vehicle. The Guide is intended to help consumers compare the fuel economy of similarly sized cars, light duty trucks and special purpose vehicles. The vehicles listed have been divided into three classes of cars, three classes of light duty trucks, and three classes of special purpose vehicles.

  17. Model Year 2010 Fuel Economy Guide: EPA Fuel Economy Estimates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2009-10-14

    The Fuel Economy Guide is published by the U.S. Department of Energy as an aid to consumers considering the purchase of a new vehicle. The Guide lists estimates of miles per gallon (mpg) for each vehicle available for the new model year. These estimates are provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in compliance with Federal Law. By using this Guide, consumers can estimate the average yearly fuel cost for any vehicle. The Guide is intended to help consumers compare the fuel economy of similarly sized cars, light duty trucks and special purpose vehicles. The vehicles listed have been divided into three classes of cars, three classes of light duty trucks, and three classes of special purpose vehicles.

  18. Model Year 2014 Fuel Economy Guide: EPA Fuel Economy Estimates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2013-12-01

    The Fuel Economy Guide is published by the U.S. Department of Energy as an aid to consumers considering the purchase of a new vehicle. The Guide lists estimates of miles per gallon (mpg) for each vehicle available for the new model year. These estimates are provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in compliance with Federal Law. By using this Guide, consumers can estimate the average yearly fuel cost for any vehicle. The Guide is intended to help consumers compare the fuel economy of similarly sized cars, light duty trucks and special purpose vehicles. The vehicles listed have been divided into three classes of cars, three classes of light duty trucks, and three classes of special purpose vehicles.

  19. Specifics of Communication in Lithuanian Voting Campaigns, 2012-2016

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mažylis Liudas

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The rapid growth of the numbers of unaffiliated voters and the internet users caused politicians’ interest in these audiences and the start of their activities in these communication channels by establishing more personalized relationships with voters. This paper aims to analyze the communication of main parties and their candidates in social media channel “Facebook” and in popular Lithuanian internet news media portals, such as delfi.lt, lrytas.lt and others before the Parliamentary elections in 2012 and the forthcoming 2016 Parliamentary elections. Both quantitative and qualitative aspects of campaign coverage in the media portals and Facebook are analysed. The paper addresses the following questions: How important are factors such as new party emergence, parallel referendum campaign, and activity of using social media for the final result of elections? How active were the politicians in the Facebook? What content dominated their profiles? How much personalized were their messages? What strategies were used for communication? Did the politicians aim at mobilizing or at persuasion the voters? Involvement of citizens, voters’ turnout and political results are linked with campaign arguments and the value normative environment. We conclude by providing the discussion on the noticed tendencies and possible improvements in the communication of candidates for the future.

  20. Information on Nuclear Malaysia Internal Auditee Since 2012-2016

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fazila Said; Nur Hanisah Adnan; Noor Azreen Maslan

    2016-01-01

    Audits carried out in the Quality Management System (QMS) aims to determine whether the quality management system complies with the standard requirements, assess the implementation of the system and its effectiveness in achieving organizational objectives, for improvement, as input to the management and find a loophole quality improvement. An organization must carry out a series of audits for the purpose of maintaining the certification is based on standards. To maintain and enhance the credibility of the audit, only a competent auditor selected. RMC has developed procedures for managing the activities of the Internal Audit and Internal Audit to all QMS certification in Malaysian Nuclear Agency. Effectiveness and efficiency of the internal audit activity depends on the skill and experience in addition to the availability of an internal auditor that time. The following information is shared activeness line Internal Auditors Malaysia Nuclear Agency from 2012 until 2016. (author)

  1. One thousand years of fires: Integrating proxy and model data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natalie Marie Kehrwald

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The current fires raging across Indonesia are emitting more carbon than the annual fossil fuel emissions of Germany or Japan, and the fires are still consuming vast tracts of rainforest and peatlands. The National Interagency Fire Center (www.nifc.gov notes that 2015 is one worst fire years on record in the U.S., where more than 9 million acres burned -- equivalent to the combined size of Massachusetts and New Jersey. The U.S. and Indonesian fires have already displaced tens of thousands of people, and their impacts on ecosystems are still unclear. In the case of Indonesia, the burning peat is destroying much of the existing soil, with unknown implications for the type of vegetation regrowth. Such large fires result from a combination of fire management practices, increasing anthropogenic land use, and a changing climate. The expected increase in fire activity in the upcoming decades has led to a surge in research trying to understand their causes, the factors that may have influenced similar times of fire activity in the past, and the implications of such fire activity in the future. Multiple types of complementary data provide information on the impacts of current fires and the extent of past fires. The wide array of data encompasses different spatial and temporal resolutions (Figure 1 and includes fire proxy information such as charcoal and tree ring fire scars, observational records, satellite products, modern emissions data, fire models within global land cover and vegetation models, and sociodemographic data for modeling past human land use and ignition frequency. Any single data type is more powerful when combined with another source of information. Merging model and proxy data enables analyses of how fire activity modifies vegetation distribution, air and water quality, and proximity to cities; these analyses in turn support land management decisions relating to conservation and development.

  2. Multi-year predictability in a coupled general circulation model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Power, Scott; Colman, Rob [Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre, Melbourne, VIC (Australia)

    2006-02-01

    Multi-year to decadal variability in a 100-year integration of a BMRC coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (CGCM) is examined. The fractional contribution made by the decadal component generally increases with depth and latitude away from surface waters in the equatorial Indo-Pacific Ocean. The relative importance of decadal variability is enhanced in off-equatorial ''wings'' in the subtropical eastern Pacific. The model and observations exhibit ''ENSO-like'' decadal patterns. Analytic results are derived, which show that the patterns can, in theory, occur in the absence of any predictability beyond ENSO time-scales. In practice, however, modification to this stochastic view is needed to account for robust differences between ENSO-like decadal patterns and their interannual counterparts. An analysis of variability in the CGCM, a wind-forced shallow water model, and a simple mixed layer model together with existing and new theoretical results are used to improve upon this stochastic paradigm and to provide a new theory for the origin of decadal ENSO-like patterns like the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation. In this theory, ENSO-driven wind-stress variability forces internal equatorially-trapped Kelvin waves that propagate towards the eastern boundary. Kelvin waves can excite reflected internal westward propagating equatorially-trapped Rossby waves (RWs) and coastally-trapped waves (CTWs). CTWs have no impact on the off-equatorial sub-surface ocean outside the coastal wave guide, whereas the RWs do. If the frequency of the incident wave is too high, then only CTWs are excited. At lower frequencies, both CTWs and RWs can be excited. The lower the frequency, the greater the fraction of energy transmitted to RWs. This lowers the characteristic frequency of variability off the equator relative to its equatorial counterpart. Both the eastern boundary interactions and the accumulation of

  3. Dynamical Downscaling of NASA/GISS ModelE: Continuous, Multi-Year WRF Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otte, T.; Bowden, J. H.; Nolte, C. G.; Otte, M. J.; Herwehe, J. A.; Faluvegi, G.; Shindell, D. T.

    2010-12-01

    The WRF Model is being used at the U.S. EPA for dynamical downscaling of the NASA/GISS ModelE fields to assess regional impacts of climate change in the United States. The WRF model has been successfully linked to the ModelE fields in their raw hybrid vertical coordinate, and continuous, multi-year WRF downscaling simulations have been performed. WRF will be used to downscale decadal time slices of ModelE for recent past, current, and future climate as the simulations being conducted for the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report become available. This presentation will focus on the sensitivity to interior nudging within the RCM. The use of interior nudging for downscaled regional climate simulations has been somewhat controversial over the past several years but has been recently attracting attention. Several recent studies that have used reanalysis (i.e., verifiable) fields as a proxy for GCM input have shown that interior nudging can be beneficial toward achieving the desired downscaled fields. In this study, the value of nudging will be shown using fields from ModelE that are downscaled using WRF. Several different methods of nudging are explored, and it will be shown that the method of nudging and the choices made with respect to how nudging is used in WRF are critical to balance the constraint of ModelE against the freedom of WRF to develop its own fields.

  4. Eight Year Climatologies from Observational (AIRS) and Model (MERRA) Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hearty, Thomas; Savtchenko, Andrey; Won, Young-In; Theobalk, Mike; Vollmer, Bruce; Manning, Evan; Smith, Peter; Ostrenga, Dana; Leptoukh, Greg

    2010-01-01

    We examine climatologies derived from eight years of temperature, water vapor, cloud, and trace gas observations made by the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) instrument flying on the Aqua satellite and compare them to similar climatologies constructed with data from a global assimilation model, the Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA). We use the AIRS climatologies to examine anomalies and trends in the AIRS data record. Since sampling can be an issue for infrared satellites in low earth orbit, we also use the MERRA data to examine the AIRS sampling biases. By sampling the MERRA data at the AIRS space-time locations both with and without the AIRS quality control we estimate the sampling bias of the AIRS climatology and the atmospheric conditions where AIRS has a lower sampling rate. While the AIRS temperature and water vapor sampling biases are small at low latitudes, they can be more than a few degrees in temperature or 10 percent in water vapor at higher latitudes. The largest sampling biases are over desert. The AIRS and MERRA data are available from the Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC). The AIRS climatologies we used are available for analysis with the GIOVANNI data exploration tool. (see, http://disc.gsfc.nasa.gov).

  5. Acoustic Vocal Tract Model of One-year-old Children

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Vojnović

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available The physical shape of vocal tract and its formant (resonant frequencies are directly related. The study of this functional connectivity is essential in speech therapy practice with children. Most of the perceived children’s speech anomalies can be explained on a physical level: malfunctioning movement of articulation organs. The current problem is that there is no enough data on the anatomical shape of children’s vocal tract to create its acoustic model. Classical techniques for vocal tract shape imaging (X-ray, magnetic resonance, etc. are not appropriate for children. One possibility is to start from the shape of the adult vocal tract and correct it based on anatomical, morphological and articulatory differences between children and adults. This paper presents a method for vocal tract shape estimation of the child aged one year. The initial shapes of the vocal tract refer to the Russian vowels spoken by an adult male. All the relevant anatomical and articulation parameters, that influence the formant frequencies, are analyzed. Finally, the hypothetical configurations of the children’s vocal tract, for the five vowels, are presented.

  6. Reflection of a Year Long Model-Driven Business and UI Modeling Development Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sukaviriya, Noi; Mani, Senthil; Sinha, Vibha

    Model-driven software development enables users to specify an application at a high level - a level that better matches problem domain. It also promises the users with better analysis and automation. Our work embarks on two collaborating domains - business process and human interactions - to build an application. Business modeling expresses business operations and flows then creates business flow implementation. Human interaction modeling expresses a UI design, its relationship with business data, logic, and flow, and can generate working UI. This double modeling approach automates the production of a working system with UI and business logic connected. This paper discusses the human aspects of this modeling approach after a year long of building a procurement outsourcing contract application using the approach - the result of which was deployed in December 2008. The paper discusses in multiple areas the happy endings and some heartache. We end with insights on how a model-driven approach could do better for humans in the process.

  7. Computable general equilibrium model fiscal year 2014 capability development report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Edwards, Brian Keith [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Boero, Riccardo [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2016-05-11

    This report provides an overview of the development of the NISAC CGE economic modeling capability since 2012. This capability enhances NISAC's economic modeling and analysis capabilities to answer a broader set of questions than possible with previous economic analysis capability. In particular, CGE modeling captures how the different sectors of the economy, for example, households, businesses, government, etc., interact to allocate resources in an economy and this approach captures these interactions when it is used to estimate the economic impacts of the kinds of events NISAC often analyzes.

  8. FMCSA safety program effectiveness measurement: intervention model fiscal year 2009.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-04-01

    The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA), in cooperation with the researcher, has developed an analytic model to measure the effectiveness of roadside inspections and traffic enforcements in terms of crashes avoided, injuries avoided, ...

  9. Effect of Using Extreme Years in Hydrologic Model Calibration Performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goktas, R. K.; Tezel, U.; Kargi, P. G.; Ayvaz, T.; Tezyapar, I.; Mesta, B.; Kentel, E.

    2017-12-01

    Hydrological models are useful in predicting and developing management strategies for controlling the system behaviour. Specifically they can be used for evaluating streamflow at ungaged catchments, effect of climate change, best management practices on water resources, or identification of pollution sources in a watershed. This study is a part of a TUBITAK project named "Development of a geographical information system based decision-making tool for water quality management of Ergene Watershed using pollutant fingerprints". Within the scope of this project, first water resources in Ergene Watershed is studied. Streamgages found in the basin are identified and daily streamflow measurements are obtained from State Hydraulic Works of Turkey. Streamflow data is analysed using box-whisker plots, hydrographs and flow-duration curves focusing on identification of extreme periods, dry or wet. Then a hydrological model is developed for Ergene Watershed using HEC-HMS in the Watershed Modeling System (WMS) environment. The model is calibrated for various time periods including dry and wet ones and the performance of calibration is evaluated using Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE), correlation coefficient, percent bias (PBIAS) and root mean square error. It is observed that calibration period affects the model performance, and the main purpose of the development of the hydrological model should guide calibration period selection. Acknowledgement: This study is funded by The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TUBITAK) under Project Number 115Y064.

  10. Solid waste integrated cost analysis model: 1991 project year report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1991-01-01

    The purpose of the City of Houston's 1991 Solid Waste Integrated Cost Analysis Model (SWICAM) project was to continue the development of a computerized cost analysis model. This model is to provide solid waste managers with tool to evaluate the dollar cost of real or hypothetical solid waste management choices. Those choices have become complicated by the implementation of Subtitle D of the Resources Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) and the EPA's Integrated Approach to managing municipal solid waste;. that is, minimize generation, maximize recycling, reduce volume (incinerate), and then bury (landfill) only the remainder. Implementation of an integrated solid waste management system involving all or some of the options of recycling, waste to energy, composting, and landfilling is extremely complicated. Factors such as hauling distances, markets, and prices for recyclable, costs and benefits of transfer stations, and material recovery facilities must all be considered. A jurisdiction must determine the cost impacts of implementing a number of various possibilities for managing, handling, processing, and disposing of waste. SWICAM employs a single Lotus 123 spreadsheet to enable a jurisdiction to predict or assess the costs of its waste management system. It allows the user to select his own process flow for waste material and to manipulate the model to include as few or as many options as he or she chooses. The model will calculate the estimated cost for those choices selected. The user can then change the model to include or exclude waste stream components, until the mix of choices suits the user. Graphs can be produced as a visual communication aid in presenting the results of the cost analysis. SWICAM also allows future cost projections to be made.

  11. The early years of string theory: The dual resonance model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ramond, P.

    1987-10-01

    This paper reviews the past quantum mechanical history of the dual resonance model which is an early string theory. The content of this paper is listed as follows: historical review, the Veneziano amplitude, the operator formalism, the ghost story, and the string story

  12. The "Biopsychosocial Model": 40 years of application in Psychiatry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papadimitriou, G

    2017-01-01

    In 1977, the American pathologist and psychiatrist George Engel (1913-1999) published in the Journal Science his paper "TheIn 1977, the American pathologist and psychiatrist George Engel (1913-1999) published in the Journal Science his paper "Theneed for a new medical model: A challenge for biomedicine", introducing the term Biopsychosocial Model. This model basedon the results of Engel's studies in ulcerative colitis, depression and psychogenic pain, constituted a challenge for biomedicineand the biomedical model. The basic principles of the model included the biological, psychological and social dimensions of the person's life and theperception that the person suffers as a whole and not as isolated organs. The doctor should use a holistic approach regardingillness and should consider his/her relation with the patient socially equal. The personality and the emotional reserves of thepatient, as well as the particular environmental conditions in which the person lives in should be taken into account. There is no doubt that the biopsychosocial model has established a more empathetic and compassionate approach in medical practice. Already since 1936, the general adaptation syndrome had been proposed by the Austrian-Canadian endocrinologist HansSeley (1907-1982), who emphasized that psychological stressful factors may have injurious consequences on health, while theresponse systems to stress may be dysregulated not only by genetic factors, but also from experiences and stressful life events,as well as by harmful behaviors such as smoking, alcohol consumption and lack of physical exercise. Psychosocial factors may co-determine the patient's vulnerability and the illness's severity and course. The biopsychosocialmodel consider the interactions with genetic susceptibility, personality, stressful events and, generally, with the patient's socialcontext. Environmental factors increase the probability of the clinical expression of a mental disorder, play a role in the time

  13. Acoustic vocal tract model of one-year-old children

    OpenAIRE

    Vojnović, Milan; Bogavac, Ivana; Dobrijević, Ljiljana

    2014-01-01

    The physical shape of vocal tract and its formant (resonant) frequencies are directly related. The study of this functional connectivity is essential in speech therapy practice with children. Most of the perceived children’s speech anomalies can be explained on a physical level: malfunctioning movement of articulation organs. The current problem is that there is no enough data on the anatomical shape of children’s vocal tract to create its acoustic model. Classical techniques for vocal tract...

  14. Modelling loans and deposits during electoral years i n Romania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicolae - Marius JULA

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper analyzes the effect of electoral years on loans and deposits for population in Romania. Using monthly data regarding the total loans and deposits, we identify the significance of the electoral timing on population´s behavior regarding financial decisions. We estimate that there are small changes in population´s affinity for increase in the indebtedness or for savings. We use dummy variables for electoral periods, and when these are econometrically significant there is an evidence of the influence of the electoral timings in population´s financial decisions.

  15. Numerical modelling: where will we be in ten years

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Caseau, P.

    1993-01-01

    Computer hardware power is increasing following a regular curve since 30 years; the 2000-2005 horizon is easy to extrapolate. But interactions between machine capacity, processing speed, working memory and memory store, pre- and post-processing/stations capacity, process communications/stations capacity, etc. are more difficult to assess, such as the place of one-Teraflop machines in an architecture. The needs for an one Teraflop capacity for various applications are discussed: numerical simulation of diffusion and transport in neutronics, of poly-phasic and reactive flows, of large electric utility networks, of physico-chemistry at molecular levels; artificial intelligence may play a major role. 2 figs

  16. GEM1: First-year modeling and IT activities for the Global Earthquake Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, G.; Giardini, D.; Wiemer, S.

    2009-04-01

    GEM is a public-private partnership initiated by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) to build an independent standard for modeling and communicating earthquake risk worldwide. GEM is aimed at providing authoritative, open information about seismic risk and decision tools to support mitigation. GEM will also raise risk awareness and help post-disaster economic development, with the ultimate goal of reducing the toll of future earthquakes. GEM will provide a unified set of seismic hazard, risk, and loss modeling tools based on a common global IT infrastructure and consensus standards. These tools, systems, and standards will be developed in partnership with organizations around the world, with coordination by the GEM Secretariat and its Secretary General. GEM partners will develop a variety of global components, including a unified earthquake catalog, fault database, and ground motion prediction equations. To ensure broad representation and community acceptance, GEM will include local knowledge in all modeling activities, incorporate existing detailed models where possible, and independently test all resulting tools and models. When completed in five years, GEM will have a versatile, penly accessible modeling environment that can be updated as necessary, and will provide the global standard for seismic hazard, risk, and loss models to government ministers, scientists and engineers, financial institutions, and the public worldwide. GEM is now underway with key support provided by private sponsors (Munich Reinsurance Company, Zurich Financial Services, AIR Worldwide Corporation, and Willis Group Holdings); countries including Belgium, Germany, Italy, Singapore, Switzerland, and Turkey; and groups such as the European Commission. The GEM Secretariat has been selected by the OECD and will be hosted at the Eucentre at the University of Pavia in Italy; the Secretariat is now formalizing the creation of the GEM Foundation. Some of GEM's global

  17. FMCSA safety program effectiveness measurement : Intervention Model in fiscal year 2007

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-04-01

    This report presents results from FMCSAs Roadside Intervention Model for fiscal year 2007. The model estimates the number of crashes avoided, as well as injuries avoided and lives saved, as a result of the Agencys roadside inspection program. T...

  18. Predicting Graduation Rates at 4-Year Broad Access Institutions Using a Bayesian Modeling Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crisp, Gloria; Doran, Erin; Salis Reyes, Nicole A.

    2018-01-01

    This study models graduation rates at 4-year broad access institutions (BAIs). We examine the student body, structural-demographic, and financial characteristics that best predict 6-year graduation rates across two time periods (2008-2009 and 2014-2015). A Bayesian model averaging approach is utilized to account for uncertainty in variable…

  19. Understanding Weight Management Perceptions in First-Year College Students Using the Health Belief Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das, Bhibha M.; Evans, Ellen M.

    2014-01-01

    Objective: To examine weight management barriers, using the Health Belief Model, in first-year college students. Participants: First-year college students (n = 45), with data collected in April, May, and November 2013. Methods: Nominal group technique sessions (n = 8) were conducted. Results: First-year students recognize benefits to weight…

  20. Forecasting dengue hemorrhagic fever cases using ARIMA model: a case study in Asahan district

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siregar, Fazidah A.; Makmur, Tri; Saprin, S.

    2018-01-01

    Time series analysis had been increasingly used to forecast the number of dengue hemorrhagic fever in many studies. Since no vaccine exist and poor public health infrastructure, predicting the occurrence of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) is crucial. This study was conducted to determine trend and forecasting the occurrence of DHF in Asahan district, North Sumatera Province. Monthly reported dengue cases for the years 2012-2016 were obtained from the district health offices. A time series analysis was conducted by Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) modeling to forecast the occurrence of DHF. The results demonstrated that the reported DHF cases showed a seasonal variation. The SARIMA (1,0,0)(0,1,1)12 model was the best model and adequate for the data. The SARIMA model for DHF is necessary and could applied to predict the incidence of DHF in Asahan district and assist with design public health maesures to prevent and control the diseases.

  1. Financial modelling and corporate governance: A feminist perspective using an optimization approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Desi Adhariani

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This study is aimed at projecting the financial condition of the company using the feminist ethics of care integrated in corporate governance principles. The research question to be answered is: How the financial condition of the company in the future is affected if the feminist ethics of care is applied in its corporate governance practices? The research question is answered using the quantitative optimisation method to develop the financial planning model for the period 2012-2016. BHP Billiton which is one of the world’s largest resources company is selected to be the sample of this case study. The projection of the financial condition for the five-year period 2012-2016 showed that BHP Billiton, Ltd. can achieve an overall positive economic value retained in the projected period even though negative results exist for 2015 and 2016. Sensitivity analysis was performed by providing two examples of alternatives or scenarios to show the impact on the projected financial condition. It can be concluded that the Company’s financial condition will be stable in the future. The use of the ethics of care simultaneously as a lens to support corporate governance practices and as guidance in financial projection has not been conducted in previous studies. This study therefore, offers an original contribution to the literature of corporate governance, business ethics and financial planning.

  2. Models for Information Assurance Education and Outreach: A Report on Year 1 Implementation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jianjun

    2013-01-01

    On September 22, 2012, NSF announced its decision to fund a three-year project, "Models for Information Assurance Education and Outreach" (MIAEO). In the first year of grant operation, MIAEO has invited 18 high school students, two K-12 teachers, and two CSUB student assistants to conduct research explorations in the fields of…

  3. Continuous Improvement of a Groundwater Model over a 20-Year Period: Lessons Learned.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andersen, Peter F; Ross, James L; Fenske, Jon P

    2018-04-17

    Groundwater models developed for specific sites generally become obsolete within a few years due to changes in: (1) modeling technology; (2) site/project personnel; (3) project funding; and (4) modeling objectives. Consequently, new models are sometimes developed for the same sites using the latest technology and data, but without potential knowledge gained from the prior models. When it occurs, this practice is particularly problematic because, although technology, data, and observed conditions change, development of the new numerical model may not consider the conceptual model's underpinnings. As a contrary situation, we present the unique case of a numerical flow and trichloroethylene (TCE) transport model that was first developed in 1993 and since revised and updated annually by the same personnel. The updates are prompted by an increase in the amount of data, exposure to a wider range of hydrologic conditions over increasingly longer timeframes, technological advances, evolving modeling objectives, and revised modeling methodologies. The history of updates shows smooth, incremental changes in the conceptual model and modeled aquifer parameters that result from both increase and decrease in complexity. Myriad modeling objectives have included demonstrating the ineffectiveness of a groundwater extraction/injection system, evaluating potential TCE degradation, locating new monitoring points, and predicting likelihood of exceedance of groundwater standards. The application emphasizes an original tenet of successful groundwater modeling: iterative adjustment of the conceptual model based on observations of actual vs. model response. © 2018, National Ground Water Association.

  4. Adolescents Exiting Homelessness over Two Years: The Risk Amplification and Abatement Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milburn, Norweeta G.; Rice, Eric; Rotheram-Borus, Mary Jane; Mallett, Shelley; Rosenthal, Doreen; Batterham, Phillip; May, Susanne J.; Witkin, Andrea; Duan, Naihua

    2009-01-01

    The Risk Amplification and Abatement Model (RAAM) demonstrates that negative contact with socializing agents amplify risk, while positive contact abates risk for homeless adolescents. To test this model, the likelihood of exiting homelessness and returning to familial housing at 2 years and stably exiting over time are examined with longitudinal…

  5. Mathematical Modelling in the Junior Secondary Years: An Approach Incorporating Mathematical Technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lowe, James; Carter, Merilyn; Cooper, Tom

    2018-01-01

    Mathematical models are conceptual processes that use mathematics to describe, explain, and/or predict the behaviour of complex systems. This article is written for teachers of mathematics in the junior secondary years (including out-of-field teachers of mathematics) who may be unfamiliar with mathematical modelling, to explain the steps involved…

  6. An Integrated Visualization and Basic Molecular Modeling Laboratory for First-Year Undergraduate Medicinal Chemistry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayes, Joseph M.

    2014-01-01

    A 3D model visualization and basic molecular modeling laboratory suitable for first-year undergraduates studying introductory medicinal chemistry is presented. The 2 h practical is embedded within a series of lectures on drug design, target-drug interactions, enzymes, receptors, nucleic acids, and basic pharmacokinetics. Serving as a teaching aid…

  7. Nano-Continuum Modeling of a Nuclear Glass Specimen Altered for 25 Years

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Steefel, Carl

    2014-01-06

    The purpose of this contribution is to report on preliminary nano-continuum scale modeling of nuclear waste glass corrosion. The focus of the modeling is an experiment involving a French glass SON68 specimen leached for 25 years in a granitic environment. In this report, we focus on capturing the nano-scale concentration profiles. We use a high resolution continuum model with a constant grid spacing of 1 nanometer to investigate the glass corrosion mechanisms.

  8. 40 CFR 1068.360 - What restrictions apply to assigning a model year to imported engines and equipment?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... new engine identified as a 2007 model-year product that is imported on January 31, 2010 will be... equipment? This section includes limitations on assigning a model year to engines and equipment that are imported in a year later than the model year in which they were manufactured, except as specified in...

  9. Rapid prototyping modelling in oral and maxillofacial surgery: A two year retrospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suomalainen, Anni; Stoor, Patricia; Mesimäki, Karri; Kontio, Risto K

    2015-12-01

    The use of rapid prototyping (RP) models in medicine to construct bony models is increasing. The aim of the study was to evaluate retrospectively the indication for the use of RP models in oral and maxillofacial surgery at Helsinki University Central Hospital during 2009-2010. Also, the used computed tomography (CT) examination - multislice CT (MSCT) or cone beam CT (CBCT) - method was evaluated. In total 114 RP models were fabricated for 102 patients. The mean age of the patients at the time of the production of the model was 50.4 years. The indications for the modelling included malignant lesions (29%), secondary reconstruction (25%), prosthodontic treatment (22%), orthognathic surgery or asymmetry (13%), benign lesions (8%), and TMJ disorders (4%). MSCT examination was used in 92 and CBCT examination in 22 cases. Most of the models (75%) were conventional hard tissue models. Models with colored tumour or other structure(s) of interest were ordered in 24%. Two out of the 114 models were soft tissue models. The main benefit of the models was in treatment planning and in connection with the production of pre-bent plates or custom made implants. The RP models both facilitate and improve treatment planning and intraoperative efficiency. Rapid prototyping, radiology, computed tomography, cone beam computed tomography.

  10. 25 Years of Model-Driven Web Engineering: What we achieved, What is missing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gustavo Rossi

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Model-Driven Web Engineering (MDWE approaches aim to improve the Web applications development process by focusing on modeling instead of coding, and deriving the running application by transformations from conceptual models to code. The emergence of the Interaction Flow Modeling Language (IFML has been an important milestone in the evolution of Web modeling languages, indicating not only the maturity of the field but also a final convergence of languages. In this paper we explain the evolution of modeling and design approaches since the early years (in the 90’s detailing the forces which drove that evolution and discussing the strengths and weaknesses of some of those approaches. A brief presentation of the IFML is accompanied with a thorough analysis of the most important achievements of the MDWE community as well as the problems and obstacles that hinder the dissemination of model-driven techniques in the Web engineering field.

  11. A comparison of emission calculations using different modeled indicators with 1-year online measurements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lengers, Bernd; Schiefler, Inga; Büscher, Wolfgang

    2013-12-01

    The overall measurement of farm level greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in dairy production is not feasible, from either an engineering or administrative point of view. Instead, computational model systems are used to generate emission inventories, demanding a validation by measurement data. This paper tests the GHG calculation of the dairy farm-level optimization model DAIRYDYN, including methane (CH₄) from enteric fermentation and managed manure. The model involves four emission calculation procedures (indicators), differing in the aggregation level of relevant input variables. The corresponding emission factors used by the indicators range from default per cow (activity level) emissions up to emission factors based on feed intake, manure amount, and milk production intensity. For validation of the CH₄ accounting of the model, 1-year CH₄ measurements of an experimental free-stall dairy farm in Germany are compared to model simulation results. An advantage of this interdisciplinary study is given by the correspondence of the model parameterization and simulation horizon with the experimental farm's characteristics and measurement period. The results clarify that modeled emission inventories (2,898, 4,637, 4,247, and 3,600 kg CO₂-eq. cow(-1) year(-1)) lead to more or less good approximations of online measurements (average 3,845 kg CO₂-eq. cow(-1) year(-1) (±275 owing to manure management)) depending on the indicator utilized. The more farm-specific characteristics are used by the GHG indicator; the lower is the bias of the modeled emissions. Results underline that an accurate emission calculation procedure should capture differences in energy intake, owing to milk production intensity as well as manure storage time. Despite the differences between indicator estimates, the deviation of modeled GHGs using detailed indicators in DAIRYDYN from on-farm measurements is relatively low (between -6.4% and 10.5%), compared with findings from the literature.

  12. Relationship Between Vehicle Size and Fatality Risk in Model Year 1985-93 Passenger Cars and Light Trucks

    Science.gov (United States)

    1997-01-01

    Fatality rates per million exposure years are computed by make, model and model year, : based on the crash experience of model year 1985-93 passenger cars and light trucks (pickups) vans : and sport utility vehicles) in the United States during calen...

  13. A Multidimensional Model of School Dropout from an 8-Year Longitudinal Study in a General High School Population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fortin, Laurier; Marcotte, Diane; Diallo, Thierno; Potvin, Pierre; Royer, Egide

    2013-01-01

    This study tests an empirical multidimensional model of school dropout, using data collected in the first year of an 8-year longitudinal study, with first year high school students aged 12-13 years. Structural equation modeling analyses show that five personal, family, and school latent factors together contribute to school dropout identified at…

  14. Educators' Year Long Reactions to the Implementation of a Response to Intervention (RTI) Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanger, Dixie; Friedli, Corey; Brunken, Cindy; Snow, Pamela; Ritzman, Mitzi

    2012-01-01

    Mixed methods were used to explore the reactions of educators before and after implementing the Response to Intervention (RTI) model in secondary settings during a school year. Eighteen participants from six middle schools and four high schools collaborated on interdisciplinary teams that involved classroom teachers, speech-language pathologists…

  15. A cognitive-behavioral model of problematic online gaming in adolescents aged 12–22 years

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Haagsma, M.C.; Caplan, S.E.; Peters, O.; Pieterse, Marcel E.

    2013-01-01

    The aim of this study was to apply the cognitive behavioral model of problematic Internet use to the context of online game use to obtain a better understanding of problematic use of online games and its negative consequences. In total, 597 online game playing adolescents aged 12–22 years

  16. Analysis of the Impacts of City Year's Whole School Whole Child Model on Partner Schools' Performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meredith, Julie; Anderson, Leslie M.

    2015-01-01

    City Year is a learning organization committed to the rigorous evaluation of its "Whole School Whole Child" model, which trains and deploys teams of AmeriCorps members to low-performing, urban schools to empower more students to reach their full potential. A third-party study by Policy Studies Associates (PSA) examined the impact of…

  17. Automotive Maintenance Data Base for Model Years 1976-1979. Part II : Appendix E and F

    Science.gov (United States)

    1980-12-01

    An update of the existing data base was developed to include life cycle maintenance costs of representative vehicles for the model years 1976-1979. Repair costs as a function of time are also developed for a passenger car in each of the compact, subc...

  18. Implementing and Assessing a Flipped Classroom Model for First-Year Engineering Design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saterbak, Ann; Volz, Tracy; Wettergreen, Matthew

    2016-01-01

    Faculty at Rice University are creating instructional resources to support teaching first-year engineering design using a flipped classroom model. This implementation of flipped pedagogy is unusual because content-driven, lecture courses are usually targeted for flipping, not project-based design courses that already incorporate an abundance of…

  19. 3D Heart Model and 4D Flow MRI 20 Years after Spiral Arterial Switch Operation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sievers, Hans-Hinrich; Kheradvar, Arash; Kramer, Hans-Heiner; Rickers, Carsten

    2016-12-01

    Case of a patient is presented here 20 years after spiral direct anastomosis of the great arteries in an arterial switch operation. Three-dimensional model of the heart combined with four-dimensional flow magnetic resonance imaging presents a novel comprehensive way to assess surgical results.

  20. Automotive Maintenance Data Base for Model Years 1976-1979. Part I

    Science.gov (United States)

    1980-12-01

    An update of the existing data base was developed to include life cycle maintenance costs of representative vehicles for the model years 1976-1979. Repair costs as a function of time are also developed for a passenger car in each of the compact, subc...

  1. Developing a Model for Identifying Students at Risk of Failure in a First Year Accounting Unit

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Malcolm; Therry, Len; Whale, Jacqui

    2012-01-01

    This paper reports on the process involved in attempting to build a predictive model capable of identifying students at risk of failure in a first year accounting unit in an Australian university. Identifying attributes that contribute to students being at risk can lead to the development of appropriate intervention strategies and support…

  2. A cognitive-behavioral model of problematic online gaming in adolescents aged 12-22 years

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Haagsma, M.C.; Caplan, S.E.; Peters, O.; Pieterse, M.E.

    2013-01-01

    The aim of this study was to apply the cognitive behavioral model of problematic Internet use to the context of online game use to obtain a better understanding of problematic use of online games and its negative consequences. In total, 597 online game playing adolescents aged 12-22 years

  3. Final-year diagnostic radiography students' perception of role models within the profession.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conway, Alinya; Lewis, Sarah; Robinson, John

    2008-01-01

    Within a clinical education setting, the value of role models and prescribed mentors can be seen as an important influence in shaping the student's future as a diagnostic radiographer. A study was undertaken to create a new understanding of how diagnostic radiography students perceive role models and professional behavior in the workforce. The study aimed to determine the impact of clinical education in determining modeling expectations, role model identification and attributes, and the integration of academic education and "hands-on" clinical practice in preparing diagnostic radiography students to enter the workplace. Thirteen final-year (third-year) diagnostic radiography students completed an hour-long interview regarding their experiences and perceptions of role models while on clinical placement. The key concepts that emerged illustrated that students gravitate toward radiographers who enjoy sharing practical experiences with students and are good communicators. Unique to diagnostic radiography, students made distinctions about the presence of role models in private versus public service delivery. This study gives insight to clinical educators in diagnostic radiography and wider allied health into how students perceive role models, interact with preceptors, and combine real-life experiences with formal learning.

  4. Physical aggression, compromised social support, and 10-year marital outcomes: Testing a relational spillover model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sullivan, Kieran T; Pasch, Lauri A; Lawrence, Erika; Bradbury, Thomas N

    2015-12-01

    The purpose of the present study was to test a relational spillover model of physical aggression whereby physical aggression affects marital outcomes due to its effects on how spouses ask for and provide support to one another. Newlywed couples (n = 172) reported levels of physical aggression over the past year and engaged in interactions designed to elicit social support; marital adjustment, and stability were assessed periodically over the first 10 years of marriage. Multilevel modeling revealed that negative support behavior mediated the relationship between physical aggression and 10-year marital adjustment levels whereas positive support behavior mediated the relationship between physical aggression and divorce status. These findings emphasize the need to look beyond conflict when explaining how aggression affects relationships and when working with couples with a history of physical aggression who are seeking to improve their relationships. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

  5. Models of quality-adjusted life years when health varies over time

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Kristian Schultz; Østerdal, Lars Peter Raahave

    2006-01-01

    Qualityadjusted life year (QALY) models are widely used for economic evaluation in the health care sector. In the first part of the paper, we establish an overview of QALY models where health varies over time and provide a theoretical analysis of model identification and parameter estimation from...... time tradeoff (TTO) and standard gamble (SG) scores. We investigate deterministic and probabilistic models and consider five different families of discounting functions in all. The second part of the paper discusses four issues recurrently debated in the literature. This discussion includes questioning...... of these two can be used to disentangle risk aversion from discounting. We find that caution must be taken when drawing conclusions from models with chronic health states to situations where health varies over time. One notable difference is that in the former case, risk aversion may be indistinguishable from...

  6. Development, Validation and Parametric study of a 3-Year-Old Child Head Finite Element Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, Shihai; Chen, Yue; Li, Haiyan; Ruan, ShiJie

    2015-12-01

    Traumatic brain injury caused by drop and traffic accidents is an important reason for children's death and disability. Recently, the computer finite element (FE) head model has been developed to investigate brain injury mechanism and biomechanical responses. Based on CT data of a healthy 3-year-old child head, the FE head model with detailed anatomical structure was developed. The deep brain structures such as white matter, gray matter, cerebral ventricle, hippocampus, were firstly created in this FE model. The FE model was validated by comparing the simulation results with that of cadaver experiments based on reconstructing the child and adult cadaver experiments. In addition, the effects of skull stiffness on the child head dynamic responses were further investigated. All the simulation results confirmed the good biofidelity of the FE model.

  7. A computational growth model for measuring dynamic cortical development in the first year of life.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nie, Jingxin; Li, Gang; Wang, Li; Gilmore, John H; Lin, Weili; Shen, Dinggang

    2012-10-01

    Human cerebral cortex develops extremely fast in the first year of life. Quantitative measurement of cortical development during this early stage plays an important role in revealing the relationship between cortical structural and high-level functional development. This paper presents a computational growth model to simulate the dynamic development of the cerebral cortex from birth to 1 year old by modeling the cerebral cortex as a deformable elastoplasticity surface driven via a growth model. To achieve a high accuracy, a guidance model is also incorporated to estimate the growth parameters and cortical shapes at later developmental stages. The proposed growth model has been applied to 10 healthy subjects with longitudinal brain MR images acquired at every 3 months from birth to 1 year old. The experimental results show that our proposed method can capture the dynamic developmental process of the cortex, with the average surface distance error smaller than 0.6 mm compared with the ground truth surfaces, and the results also show that 1) the curvedness and sharpness decrease from 2 weeks to 12 months and 2) the frontal lobe shows rapidly increasing cortical folding during this period, with relatively slower increase of the cortical folding in the occipital and parietal lobes.

  8. Incorporating Yearly Derived Winter Wheat Maps Into Winter Wheat Yield Forecasting Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skakun, S.; Franch, B.; Roger, J.-C.; Vermote, E.; Becker-Reshef, I.; Justice, C.; Santamaría-Artigas, A.

    2016-01-01

    Wheat is one of the most important cereal crops in the world. Timely and accurate forecast of wheat yield and production at global scale is vital in implementing food security policy. Becker-Reshef et al. (2010) developed a generalized empirical model for forecasting winter wheat production using remote sensing data and official statistics. This model was implemented using static wheat maps. In this paper, we analyze the impact of incorporating yearly wheat masks into the forecasting model. We propose a new approach of producing in season winter wheat maps exploiting satellite data and official statistics on crop area only. Validation on independent data showed that the proposed approach reached 6% to 23% of omission error and 10% to 16% of commission error when mapping winter wheat 2-3 months before harvest. In general, we found a limited impact of using yearly winter wheat masks over a static mask for the study regions.

  9. A participative evaluation model to refine academic support for first year Indigenous higher education students

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bronwyn Rossingh

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an evaluative approach designed to provide a cycle of continuous improvement to retain Indigenous students during their first year of higher education.   The evaluation model operates in conjunction with a student academic enrichment program that is premised on valuing and respecting each student's background and life experience whilst building capability for learning success.  Data collected will be used for continual improvement of a newly developed innovative academic enrichment program that caters to the needs of Indigenous students.  The defining mechanisms of the model for measuring the first year experience are particularly meaningful for the Australian Centre For Indigenous Knowledges and Education as it moves into its inaugural year of operation in 2012. This preeminent time requires a flexible model to receive timely feedback in a reflexive environment where students guide the process as they continue their journey of accumulating knowledge and leave behind their contribution in shaping the landscape for future first year Indigenous students.  

  10. Development and validation of a 10-year-old child ligamentous cervical spine finite element model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Liqiang; Li, Guangyao; Mao, Haojie; Marek, Stanley; Yang, King H

    2013-12-01

    Although a number of finite element (FE) adult cervical spine models have been developed to understand the injury mechanisms of the neck in automotive related crash scenarios, there have been fewer efforts to develop a child neck model. In this study, a 10-year-old ligamentous cervical spine FE model was developed for application in the improvement of pediatric safety related to motor vehicle crashes. The model geometry was obtained from medical scans and meshed using a multi-block approach. Appropriate properties based on review of literature in conjunction with scaling were assigned to different parts of the model. Child tensile force-deformation data in three segments, Occipital-C2 (C0-C2), C4-C5 and C6-C7, were used to validate the cervical spine model and predict failure forces and displacements. Design of computer experiments was performed to determine failure properties for intervertebral discs and ligaments needed to set up the FE model. The model-predicted ultimate displacements and forces were within the experimental range. The cervical spine FE model was validated in flexion and extension against the child experimental data in three segments, C0-C2, C4-C5 and C6-C7. Other model predictions were found to be consistent with the experimental responses scaled from adult data. The whole cervical spine model was also validated in tension, flexion and extension against the child experimental data. This study provided methods for developing a child ligamentous cervical spine FE model and to predict soft tissue failures in tension.

  11. Modelling small-area inequality in premature mortality using years of life lost rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Congdon, Peter

    2013-04-01

    Analysis of premature mortality variations via standardized expected years of life lost (SEYLL) measures raises questions about suitable modelling for mortality data, especially when developing SEYLL profiles for areas with small populations. Existing fixed effects estimation methods take no account of correlations in mortality levels over ages, causes, socio-ethnic groups or areas. They also do not specify an underlying data generating process, or a likelihood model that can include trends or correlations, and are likely to produce unstable estimates for small-areas. An alternative strategy involves a fully specified data generation process, and a random effects model which "borrows strength" to produce stable SEYLL estimates, allowing for correlations between ages, areas and socio-ethnic groups. The resulting modelling strategy is applied to gender-specific differences in SEYLL rates in small-areas in NE London, and to cause-specific mortality for leading causes of premature mortality in these areas.

  12. A year 2003 conceptual model for the U.S. telecommunications infrastructure.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cox, Roger Gary; Reinert, Rhonda K.

    2003-12-01

    To model the telecommunications infrastructure and its role and robustness to shocks, we must characterize the business and engineering of telecommunications systems in the year 2003 and beyond. By analogy to environmental systems modeling, we seek to develop a 'conceptual model' for telecommunications. Here, the conceptual model is a list of high-level assumptions consistent with the economic and engineering architectures of telecommunications suppliers and customers, both today and in the near future. We describe the present engineering architectures of the most popular service offerings, and describe the supplier markets in some detail. We also develop a characterization of the customer base for telecommunications services and project its likely response to disruptions in service, base-lining such conjectures against observed behaviors during 9/11.

  13. Black liquor combustion validated recovery boiler modeling, five-year report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Grace, T.M.; Frederick, W.J.; Salcudean, M.; Wessel, R.A.

    1996-08-01

    The objective of this project was to develop a new computer model of a recovery boiler furnace using a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) code specifically tailored to the requirements for solving recovery boiler flows, and using improved submodels for black liquor combustion based on continued laboratory fundamental studies. The project originated in October 1990 and was scheduled to run for four years. At that time, there was considerable emphasis on developing accurate predictions of the physical carryover of macroscopic particles of partially burnt black liquor and smelt droplets out of the furnace, since this was seen as the main cause of boiler plugging. This placed a major emphasis on gas flow patterns within the furnace and on the mass loss rates and swelling and shrinking rates of burning black liquor drops. As work proceeded on developing the recovery boiler furnace model, it became apparent that some recovery boilers encounter serious plugging problems even when physical carryover was minimal. After the original four-year period was completed, the project was extended to address this issue. The objective of the extended project was to improve the utility of the models by including the black liquor chemistry relevant to air emissions predictions and aerosol formation, and by developing the knowledge base and computational tools to relate furnace model outputs to fouling and plugging of the convective sections of the boilers. The work done to date includes CFD model development and validation, acquisition of information on black liquor combustion fundamentals and development of improved burning models, char bed model development, and model application and simplification.

  14. Forty years of 9Sr in situ migration: importance of soil characterization in modeling transport phenomena

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fernandez, J.M.; Piault, E.; Macouillard, D.; Juncos, C.

    2006-01-01

    In 1960 experiments were carried out on the transfer of 9 Sr between soil, grapes and wine. The experiments were conducted in situ on a piece of land limited by two control strips. The 9 Sr migration over the last 40 years was studied by performing radiological and physico-chemical characterizations of the soil on eight 70 cm deep cores. The vertical migration modeling of 9 Sr required the definition of a triple layer conceptual model integrating the rainwater infiltration at constant flux as the only external factor of influence. Afterwards the importance of a detailed soil characterization for modeling was discussed and satisfactory simulation of the 9 Sr vertical transport was obtained and showed a calculated migration rate of about 1.0 cm year -1 in full agreement with the in situ measured values. The discussion was regarding some of the key parameters such as granulometry, organic matter content (in the Van Genuchten parameter determination), Kd and the efficient rainwater infiltration. Besides the experimental data, simplifying assumptions in modeling such as water-soil redistribution calculation and factual discontinuities in conceptual model were examined

  15. Computable General Equilibrium Model Fiscal Year 2013 Capability Development Report - April 2014

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Edwards, Brian Keith [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States). National Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis Center (NISAC); Rivera, Michael K. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States). National Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis Center (NISAC); Boero, Riccardo [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States). National Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis Center (NISAC)

    2014-04-01

    This report documents progress made on continued developments of the National Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis Center (NISAC) Computable General Equilibrium Model (NCGEM), developed in fiscal year 2012. In fiscal year 2013, NISAC the treatment of the labor market and tests performed with the model to examine the properties of the solutions computed by the model. To examine these, developers conducted a series of 20 simulations for 20 U.S. States. Each of these simulations compared an economic baseline simulation with an alternative simulation that assumed a 20-percent reduction in overall factor productivity in the manufacturing industries of each State. Differences in the simulation results between the baseline and alternative simulations capture the economic impact of the reduction in factor productivity. While not every State is affected in precisely the same way, the reduction in manufacturing industry productivity negatively affects the manufacturing industries in each State to an extent proportional to the reduction in overall factor productivity. Moreover, overall economic activity decreases when manufacturing sector productivity is reduced. Developers ran two additional simulations: (1) a version of the model for the State of Michigan, with manufacturing divided into two sub-industries (automobile and other vehicle manufacturing as one sub-industry and the rest of manufacturing as the other subindustry); and (2) a version of the model for the United States, divided into 30 industries. NISAC conducted these simulations to illustrate the flexibility of industry definitions in NCGEM and to examine the simulation properties of in more detail.

  16. Multi-year Estimates of Methane Fluxes in Alaska from an Atmospheric Inverse Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, S. M.; Commane, R.; Chang, R. Y. W.; Miller, C. E.; Michalak, A. M.; Dinardo, S. J.; Dlugokencky, E. J.; Hartery, S.; Karion, A.; Lindaas, J.; Sweeney, C.; Wofsy, S. C.

    2015-12-01

    We estimate methane fluxes across Alaska over a multi-year period using observations from a three-year aircraft campaign, the Carbon Arctic Reservoirs Vulnerability Experiment (CARVE). Existing estimates of methane from Alaska and other Arctic regions disagree in both magnitude and distribution, and before the CARVE campaign, atmospheric observations in the region were sparse. We combine these observations with an atmospheric particle trajectory model and a geostatistical inversion to estimate surface fluxes at the model grid scale. We first use this framework to estimate the spatial distribution of methane fluxes across the state. We find the largest fluxes in the south-east and North Slope regions of Alaska. This distribution is consistent with several estimates of wetland extent but contrasts with the distribution in most existing flux models. These flux models concentrate methane in warmer or more southerly regions of Alaska compared to the estimate presented here. This result suggests a discrepancy in how existing bottom-up models translate wetland area into methane fluxes across the state. We next use the inversion framework to explore inter-annual variability in regional-scale methane fluxes for 2012-2014. We examine the extent to which this variability correlates with weather or other environmental conditions. These results indicate the possible sensitivity of wetland fluxes to near-term variability in climate.

  17. A Model of the Earth's Magnetic Field From Two Year of Swarm Satellite Constellation Data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Nils; Finlay, Chris; Tøffner-Clausen, Lars

    More than two year of data from ESA's Swarm constellation mission are used to derive a model of the Earth’s magnetic field and its time variation (secular variation). The model describes contributions from the core and lithosphere as well as large-scale contributions from the magnetosphere (and its...... Earth-induced counterpart). We use data from geomagnetic quiet times and co-estimate the Euler angles describing the rotation between the vector magnetometer instrument frame and the North-East-Center (NEC) frame. In addition to the magnetic field observations provided by each of the three Swarm...

  18. Cross-Scale Modelling of Subduction from Minute to Million of Years Time Scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sobolev, S. V.; Muldashev, I. A.

    2015-12-01

    Subduction is an essentially multi-scale process with time-scales spanning from geological to earthquake scale with the seismic cycle in-between. Modelling of such process constitutes one of the largest challenges in geodynamic modelling today.Here we present a cross-scale thermomechanical model capable of simulating the entire subduction process from rupture (1 min) to geological time (millions of years) that employs elasticity, mineral-physics-constrained non-linear transient viscous rheology and rate-and-state friction plasticity. The model generates spontaneous earthquake sequences. The adaptive time-step algorithm recognizes moment of instability and drops the integration time step to its minimum value of 40 sec during the earthquake. The time step is then gradually increased to its maximal value of 5 yr, following decreasing displacement rates during the postseismic relaxation. Efficient implementation of numerical techniques allows long-term simulations with total time of millions of years. This technique allows to follow in details deformation process during the entire seismic cycle and multiple seismic cycles. We observe various deformation patterns during modelled seismic cycle that are consistent with surface GPS observations and demonstrate that, contrary to the conventional ideas, the postseismic deformation may be controlled by viscoelastic relaxation in the mantle wedge, starting within only a few hours after the great (M>9) earthquakes. Interestingly, in our model an average slip velocity at the fault closely follows hyperbolic decay law. In natural observations, such deformation is interpreted as an afterslip, while in our model it is caused by the viscoelastic relaxation of mantle wedge with viscosity strongly varying with time. We demonstrate that our results are consistent with the postseismic surface displacement after the Great Tohoku Earthquake for the day-to-year time range. We will also present results of the modeling of deformation of the

  19. Development of NIR calibration models to assess year-to-year variation in total non-structural carbohydrates in grasses using PLSR

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shetty, Nisha; Gislum, René; Jensen, Anne Mette Dahl

    2012-01-01

    Near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy was used in combination with chemometrics to quantify total nonstructural carbohydrates (TNC) in grass samples in order to overcome year-to-year variation. A total of 1103 above-ground plant and root samples were collected from different field and pot experiments...... and with various experimental designs in the period from 2001 to 2005. A calibration model was developed using partial least squares regression (PLSR). The calibration model on a large data set spanning five years demonstrated that quantification of TNC using NIR spectroscopy was possible with an acceptable low...

  20. The SIR model of Zika virus disease outbreak in Brazil at year 2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aik, Lim Eng; Kiang, Lam Chee; Hong, Tan Wei; Abu, Mohd Syafarudy

    2017-05-01

    This research study demonstrates a numerical model intended for comprehension the spread of the year 2015 Zika virus disease utilizing the standard SIR framework. In modeling virulent disease dynamics, it is important to explore whether the illness spread could accomplish a pandemic level or it could be eradicated. Information from the year 2015 Zika virus disease event is utilized and Brazil where the event began is considered in this research study. A three dimensional nonlinear differential equation is formulated and solved numerically utilizing the Euler's method in MS excel. It is appeared from the research study that, with health intercessions of public, the viable regenerative number can be decreased making it feasible for the event to cease to exist. It is additionally indicated numerically that the pandemic can just cease to exist when there are no new infected people in the populace.

  1. Modeling 100,000-year climate fluctuations in pre-Pleistocene time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crowley, Thomas J.; Kim, Kwang-Yul; Mengel, John G.; Short, David A.

    1992-01-01

    A number of pre-Pleistocene climate records exhibit significant fluctuations at the 100,000-year (100-ky) eccentricity period, before the time of such fluctuations in global ice volume. The origin of these fluctuations has been obscure. Results reported here from a modeling study suggest that such a response can occur over low-altitude land areas involved in monsoon fluctuations. The twice yearly passage of the sun across the equator and the seasonal timing of perihelion interact to increase both 100-ky and 400-ky power in the modeled temperature field. The magnitude of the temperature response is sufficiently large to leave an imprint on the geologic record, and simulated fluctuations resemble those found in records of Triassic lake levels.

  2. Ten-year operational dust forecasting - Recent model development and future plans

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kallos, G; Spyrou, C; Astitha, M; Mitsakou, C; Solomos, S; Kushta, J; Pytharoulis, I; Katsafados, P; Mavromatidis, E; Papantoniou, N; Vlastou, G

    2009-01-01

    The Sahara desert is one of the major sources of mineral dust on Earth, producing up to 2x10 8 t yr- 1 . A combined effort has been devoted during the last ten years at the University of Athens (UOA) from the Atmospheric Modeling and Weather Forecasting Group (AM and WFG) to the development of an analysis and forecasting tool that will provide early warning of Saharan dust outbreaks. The developed tool is the SKIRON limited-area forecasting system, based on the Eta limited area modeling system with embedded algorithms describing the dust cycle. A new version of the model is currently available, with extra features like eight-size particle bins, radiative transfer corrections, new dust source identification and utilization of rocky soil characterization and incorporation of more accurate deposition schemes. The new version of SKIRON modeling system is coupled with the photochemical model CAMx in order to study processes like the shading effect of dust particles on photochemical processes and the production of second and third generation of aerosols. Moreover, another new development in the AM and WFG is based on the RAMS model, with the incorporation of processes like dust and sea-salt production, gas and aqueous phase chemistry and particle formation. In this study, the major characteristics of the developed (and under development) modeling systems are presented, as well as the spatiotemporal distribution of the transported dust amounts, the interaction with anthropogenically-produced particles and the potential implications on radiative transfer.

  3. Ten-year operational dust forecasting - Recent model development and future plans

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kallos, G; Spyrou, C; Astitha, M; Mitsakou, C; Solomos, S; Kushta, J; Pytharoulis, I; Katsafados, P; Mavromatidis, E; Papantoniou, N; Vlastou, G [University of Athens, School of Physics, Atmospheric Modeling and Weather Forecasting Group - UOA/AM and WFG, University Campus, Bldg. PHYS-V, Athens 15784 (Greece)], E-mail: kallos@mg.uoa.gr

    2009-03-01

    The Sahara desert is one of the major sources of mineral dust on Earth, producing up to 2x10{sup 8} t yr-{sup 1}. A combined effort has been devoted during the last ten years at the University of Athens (UOA) from the Atmospheric Modeling and Weather Forecasting Group (AM and WFG) to the development of an analysis and forecasting tool that will provide early warning of Saharan dust outbreaks. The developed tool is the SKIRON limited-area forecasting system, based on the Eta limited area modeling system with embedded algorithms describing the dust cycle. A new version of the model is currently available, with extra features like eight-size particle bins, radiative transfer corrections, new dust source identification and utilization of rocky soil characterization and incorporation of more accurate deposition schemes. The new version of SKIRON modeling system is coupled with the photochemical model CAMx in order to study processes like the shading effect of dust particles on photochemical processes and the production of second and third generation of aerosols. Moreover, another new development in the AM and WFG is based on the RAMS model, with the incorporation of processes like dust and sea-salt production, gas and aqueous phase chemistry and particle formation. In this study, the major characteristics of the developed (and under development) modeling systems are presented, as well as the spatiotemporal distribution of the transported dust amounts, the interaction with anthropogenically-produced particles and the potential implications on radiative transfer.

  4. Terry Turbopump Analytical Modeling Efforts in Fiscal Year 2016 ? Progress Report.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Osborn, Douglas; Ross, Kyle; Cardoni, Jeffrey N

    2018-04-01

    This document details the Fiscal Year 2016 modeling efforts to define the true operating limitations (margins) of the Terry turbopump systems used in the nuclear industry for Milestone 3 (full-scale component experiments) and Milestone 4 (Terry turbopump basic science experiments) experiments. The overall multinational-sponsored program creates the technical basis to: (1) reduce and defer additional utility costs, (2) simplify plant operations, and (3) provide a better understanding of the true margin which could reduce overall risk of operations.

  5. Evaluation of 6 and 10 Year-Old Child Human Body Models in Emergency Events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gras, Laure-Lise; Stockman, Isabelle; Brolin, Karin

    2017-01-01

    Emergency events can influence a child's kinematics prior to a car-crash, and thus its interaction with the restraint system. Numerical Human Body Models (HBMs) can help understand the behaviour of children in emergency events. The kinematic responses of two child HBMs-MADYMO 6 and 10 year-old models-were evaluated and compared with child volunteers' data during emergency events-braking and steering-with a focus on the forehead and sternum displacements. The response of the 6 year-old HBM was similar to the response of the 10 year-old HBM, however both models had a different response compared with the volunteers. The forward and lateral displacements were within the range of volunteer data up to approximately 0.3 s; but then, the HBMs head and sternum moved significantly downwards, while the volunteers experienced smaller displacement and tended to come back to their initial posture. Therefore, these HBMs, originally intended for crash simulations, are not too stiff and could be able to reproduce properly emergency events thanks, for instance, to postural control.

  6. Mercury Studies around the Mediterranean Sea Basin: Ten years of Measurements and Modeling results

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sprovieri F.

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Only a few years ago the presence of Reactive Gaseous Mercury (RGM was believed to be almost exclusively the result of anthropogenic emissions and that sustained high RGM concentrations in the MBL were not considered likely. During the past ten years, an in-depth investigation was carried out in the Marine Boundary Layer (MBL of the Mediterranean Sea to quantify and possibly explain spatial and temporal patterns of Hg-species concentrations. This paper provides an overview of modeling results and atmospheric measurements performed during several cruise campaigns performed aboard the Research Vessel (RV URANIA of the CNR over the Mediterranean sea basin. RGM concentrations have been modelled using a photochemical box model of the MBL and compared to measured data obtained during the research cruises. The comparison results supports the hypothesis that there are daytime mercury oxidation reactions occurring which have not yet been identified. Major findings of key studies carried out during ten years of ship-borne activities have been highlighted.

  7. Insight, psychopathology, explanatory models and outcome of schizophrenia in India: a prospective 5-year cohort study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Johnson Shanthi

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The sole focus of models of insight on bio-medical perspectives to the complete exclusion of local, non-medical and cultural constructs mandates review. This study attempted to investigate the impact of insight, psychopathology, explanatory models of illness on outcome of first episode schizophrenia. Method Patients diagnosed to have DSM IV schizophrenia (n = 131 were assessed prospectively for insight, psychopathology, explanatory models of illness at baseline, 6, 12 and 60 months using standard instruments. Multiple linear and logistic regression and generalized estimating equations (GEE were employed to assess predictors of outcome. Results We could follow up 95 (72.5% patients. Sixty-five of these patients (68.4% achieved remission. There was a negative relationship between psychosis rating and insight scores. Urban residence, fluctuating course of the initial illness, and improvement in global functioning at 6 months and lower psychosis rating at 12 months were significantly related to remission at 5 years. Insight scores, number of non-medical explanatory models and individual explanatory models held during the later course of the illness were significantly associated with outcome. Analysis of longitudinal data using GEE showed that women, rural residence, insight scores and number of non-medical explanatory models of illness held were significantly associated with BPRS scores during the study period. Conclusions Insight, the disease model and the number of non-medical model positively correlated with improvement in psychosis arguing for a complex interaction between the culture, context and illness variables. These finding argue that insight and explanatory models are secondary to psychopathology, course and outcome of the illness. The awareness of mental illness is a narrative act in which people make personal sense of the many challenges they face. The course and outcome of the illness, cultural context

  8. Imitation of live and televised models by children one to three years of age.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCall, R B; Parke, R D; Kavanaugh, R D

    1977-01-01

    The results of these studies indicated that children younger than 1 year possess the cognitive capability of translating a perception of a novel action into their own behavior. However, the likelihood of imitation varied as a function of the nature of the target behavior. For example, actions requiring direct social commerce with the examiner were imitated less frequently than simple motor behaviors with objects, and reproducing gestures was more common than vocalizations. Moreover, imitation seemed to depend upon the child's level of mental development--the imitation of coordinated sequences, which requires the child to associate two external events, lagged behind the imitation of single-unit behaviors. There was no evidence for individual traits of general imitativeness, at least not until symbolic relations were involved. Live models were imitated more than TV models but only prior to age 3. While children under 2 years of age were not facile at imitating sequences of behaviors or delaying performance at short time after modeling, older toddlers readily and accurately imitated televised sequences even after a 24-hour delay. Whereas socially extroverted and fearless children imitated live models more than shy children, TV imitation was not related to temperament, home TV viewing habits, or parental education. Finally, the experience of being imitated may facilitate the social cognition of influencing another person.

  9. A Five-Year CMAQ PM2.5 Model Performance for Wildfires and Prescribed Fires

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilkins, J. L.; Pouliot, G.; Foley, K.; Rappold, A.; Pierce, T. E.

    2016-12-01

    Biomass burning has been identified as an important contributor to the degradation of air quality because of its impact on ozone and particulate matter. Two components of the biomass burning inventory, wildfires and prescribed fires are routinely estimated in the national emissions inventory. However, there is a large amount of uncertainty in the development of these emission inventory sectors. We have completed a 5 year set of CMAQ model simulations (2008-2012) in which we have simulated regional air quality with and without the wildfire and prescribed fire inventory. We will examine CMAQ model performance over regions with significant PM2.5 and Ozone contribution from prescribed fires and wildfires. We will also review plume rise to see how it affects model bias and compare CMAQ current fire emissions input to an hourly dataset from FLAMBE.

  10. Semivariogram models for estimating fig fly population density throughout the year

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mauricio Paulo Batistella Pasini

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this work was to select semivariogram models to estimate the population density of fig fly (Zaprionus indianus; Diptera: Drosophilidae throughout the year, using ordinary kriging. Nineteen monitoring sites were demarcated in an area of 8,200 m2, cropped with six fruit tree species: persimmon, citrus, fig, guava, apple, and peach. During a 24 month period, 106 weekly evaluations were done in these sites. The average number of adult fig flies captured weekly per trap, during each month, was subjected to the circular, spherical, pentaspherical, exponential, Gaussian, rational quadratic, hole effect, K-Bessel, J-Bessel, and stable semivariogram models, using ordinary kriging interpolation. The models with the best fit were selected by cross-validation. Each data set (months has a particular spatial dependence structure, which makes it necessary to define specific models of semivariograms in order to enhance the adjustment to the experimental semivariogram. Therefore, it was not possible to determine a standard semivariogram model; instead, six theoretical models were selected: circular, Gaussian, hole effect, K-Bessel, J-Bessel, and stable.

  11. Modeling the Office of Science ten year facilities plan: The PERI Architecture Tiger Team

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Supinski, Bronis R de; Gamblin, Todd; Schulz, Martin

    2009-01-01

    The Performance Engineering Institute (PERI) originally proposed a tiger team activity as a mechanism to target significant effort optimizing key Office of Science applications, a model that was successfully realized with the assistance of two JOULE metric teams. However, the Office of Science requested a new focus beginning in 2008: assistance in forming its ten year facilities plan. To meet this request, PERI formed the Architecture Tiger Team, which is modeling the performance of key science applications on future architectures, with S3D, FLASH and GTC chosen as the first application targets. In this activity, we have measured the performance of these applications on current systems in order to understand their baseline performance and to ensure that our modeling activity focuses on the right versions and inputs of the applications. We have applied a variety of modeling techniques to anticipate the performance of these applications on a range of anticipated systems. While our initial findings predict that Office of Science applications will continue to perform well on future machines from major hardware vendors, we have also encountered several areas in which we must extend our modeling techniques in order to fulfill our mission accurately and completely. In addition, we anticipate that models of a wider range of applications will reveal critical differences between expected future systems, thus providing guidance for future Office of Science procurement decisions, and will enable DOE applications to exploit machines in future facilities fully.

  12. Crash-related mortality and model year: are newer vehicles safer?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ryb, Gabriel E; Dischinger, Patricia C; McGwin, Gerald; Griffin, Russell L

    2011-01-01

    The objective of this study was to determine whether occupants of newer vehicles experience a lower risk of crash-related mortality. The occurrence of death was studied in relation to vehicle model year (MY) among front seat vehicular occupants, age ≥ 16 captured in the National Automotive Sampling System Crashworthiness Data System (NASS-CDS) between 2000 and 2008. The associations between death and other occupant, vehicular and crash characteristics were also explored. Multiple logistic regression models for the prediction of death were built with model year as the independent variable and other characteristics linked to death as covariates. Imputation was used for missing data; weighted data was used. A total of 70,314 cases representing 30,514,372 weighted cases were available for analysis. Death occurred in 0.6% of the weighted population. Death was linked to age>60, male gender, higher BMI, near lateral direction of impact, high delta v, rollover, ejection and vehicle mismatch, and negatively associated with seatbelt use and rear and far lateral direction of impact. Mortality decreased with later model year groups (MY<94 0.78%, MY 94-97 0.53%, MY 98-04 0.51% and MY 05-08 0.38%, p=<0.0001). After adjustment for confounders, MY 94-97, MY 98-04 and MY 05-08 showed decreased odds of death [OR 0.80 (0.69-0.94), 0.82 (0.70-0.97), and 0.67 (0.47-0.96), respectively] when compared to MY <94. Newer vehicles are associated with lower crash-related mortality. Their introduction into the vehicle fleet may explain, at least in part, the decrease in mortality rates in the past two decades.

  13. Evaluating Engagement Models for a Citizen Science Project: Lessons Learned From Four Years of Nature's Notebook

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crimmins, T. M.; Rosemartin, A.

    2012-12-01

    The success of citizen science programs hinges on their abilities to recruit and maintain active participants. The USA National Phenology Network's plant and animal phenology observation program, Nature's Notebook, has been active since 2009. This program engages thousands of citizen scientists in tracking plant and animal life cycle activity over the course of the year. We embarked on an evaluation of the various observer recruitment and retention tactics that we have employed over the ~4-year life of this program to better inform future outreach efforts specific to Nature's Notebook and for the broader citizen science community. Participants in Nature's Notebook may become engaged via one of three pathways: individuals may join Nature's Notebook directly, they may be invited to join through a USA-NPN partner organization, or they may engage through a group with local, site-based leadership. The level and type of recruitment tactics, training, and retention efforts that are employed varies markedly among these three models. In this evaluation, we compared the efficacy of these three engagement models using several metrics: number of individuals recruited, number of individuals that go on to submit at least one data point, retention rates over time, duration of activity, and quantity of data points submitted. We also qualitatively considered the differences in costs the three models require to support. In terms of recruitment, direct engagement yielded 20-100 times more registrants than other two models. In contrast, rates of participation were highest for site-based leadership (>35%, versus 20-30% for direct engagement; rates for partner organizations were highly variable due to small sample sizes). Individuals participating through partners with site-based leadership showed a much higher rate of retention (41% of participants remained active for two+ years) than those participating directly in Nature's Notebook (27% of participants remained active for two+ years

  14. A simple conceptual model to interpret the 100 000 years dynamics of paleo-climate records

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. S. Quiroga Lombard

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Spectral analyses performed on records of cosmogenic nuclides reveal a group of dominant spectral components during the Holocene period. Only a few of them are related to known solar cycles, i.e., the De Vries/Suess, Gleissberg and Hallstatt cycles. The origin of the others remains uncertain. On the other hand, time series of North Atlantic atmospheric/sea surface temperatures during the last ice age display the existence of repeated large-scale warming events, called Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO events, spaced around multiples of 1470 years. The De Vries/Suess and Gleissberg cycles with periods close to 1470/7 (~210 and 1470/17 (~86.5 years have been proposed to explain these observations. In this work we found that a conceptual bistable model forced with the De Vries/Suess and Gleissberg cycles plus noise displays a group of dominant frequencies similar to those obtained in the Fourier spectra from paleo-climate during the Holocene. Moreover, we show that simply changing the noise amplitude in the model we obtain similar power spectra to those corresponding to GISP2 δ18O (Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 during the last ice age. These results give a general dynamical framework which allows us to interpret the main characteristic of paleoclimate records from the last 100 000 years.

  15. "No-fault" compensation for victims of medical injuries. Ten years of implementing the French model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barbot, Janine; Parizot, Isabelle; Winance, Myriam

    2014-02-01

    For decades and in many countries, the issue of compensation for victims of medical injuries has led to lively debates. In 2002, a law set up a new model for compensation in France - based on the creation of a "no fault" compensation scheme and of an out-of-court settlement mechanism. This is one of the most recent models to have been adopted in European countries. This article analyses the choices made by the law and discusses the key figures of its ten years of implementation. We conducted (1) a study of debates regarding compensation for victims of medical injuries in France; (2) a comparative analysis of the different models of compensation which had already been adopted in different countries; (3) a study of primary sources provided by the bodies in charge of the French new out-of-court settlement mechanism; and (4) a statistical analysis of the exhaustive list of 18,258 claims filed between 2003 and 2009. The article highlights the context which led to the adoption of the 2002 law on the quality of care and patients' rights. It analyses, from a comparative standpoint, the specificities of the new compensation model set up by the law. It shows how the opportunities for victims of medical injuries to be compensated had improved in France. Finally, we discuss the limits of the new model and what the next step might be to improve access to compensation for victims of medical injuries. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Skill of Predicting Heavy Rainfall Over India: Improvement in Recent Years Using UKMO Global Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, Kuldeep; Ashrit, Raghavendra; Bhatla, R.; Mitra, A. K.; Iyengar, G. R.; Rajagopal, E. N.

    2017-11-01

    The quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) performance for heavy rains is still a challenge, even for the most advanced state-of-art high-resolution Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) modeling systems. This study aims to evaluate the performance of UK Met Office Unified Model (UKMO) over India for prediction of high rainfall amounts (>2 and >5 cm/day) during the monsoon period (JJAS) from 2007 to 2015 in short range forecast up to Day 3. Among the various modeling upgrades and improvements in the parameterizations during this period, the model horizontal resolution has seen an improvement from 40 km in 2007 to 17 km in 2015. Skill of short range rainfall forecast has improved in UKMO model in recent years mainly due to increased horizontal and vertical resolution along with improved physics schemes. Categorical verification carried out using the four verification metrics, namely, probability of detection (POD), false alarm ratio (FAR), frequency bias (Bias) and Critical Success Index, indicates that QPF has improved by >29 and >24% in case of POD and FAR. Additionally, verification scores like EDS (Extreme Dependency Score), EDI (Extremal Dependence Index) and SEDI (Symmetric EDI) are used with special emphasis on verification of extreme and rare rainfall events. These scores also show an improvement by 60% (EDS) and >34% (EDI and SEDI) during the period of study, suggesting an improved skill of predicting heavy rains.

  17. Modeling and risk assessment of a 30-Year-old subsurface radioactive-liquid drain field

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dawson, Lon A.; Pohl, Phillip I.

    1997-11-01

    The contamination from a 30-year-old radioactive liquid drain field was assessed for movement in the subsurface and potential risks to humans. This assessment included determining field concentrations of cesium 137 (137Cs) and other inorganic contaminants and modeling of the flow and transport of the liquid waste that was sent to the drain field. The field investigation detected no contamination deeper than 15 feet (4.6 m) from the bottom of the drain field. Prediction of the water content of the vadose zone showed no saturated conditions for times greater than 10 years after the known infiltration. Sensitivity analysis of the modeling parameters showed the equilibrium sorption coefficient to be the most important factor in predicting the contaminant plumes. Calibration of modeling results with field data gave a 137Cs sorption coefficient that is within the range of values found in the literature. The risk assessment for the site showed that the contamination poses no significant risk to human health.

  18. On the Cutting Edge Professional Development Program - An effective model built from years of experience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruckner, M. Z.; Macdonald, H.; Beane, R. J.; Manduca, C. A.; Mcconnell, D. A.; Mogk, D. W.; Tewksbury, B. J.; Wiese, K.; Wysession, M. E.; Iverson, E. A. R.; Fox, S.

    2015-12-01

    The On the Cutting Edge (CE) program offers a successful model for designing and convening professional development events. Information about the model is now available on the CE website. The program model has evolved from more than 12 years of experience, building with input from strong leaders and participants. CE offers face-to-face, virtual, and hybrid events, and features a rich website that supports these professional development events as well as a growing community with a shared interest in effective geoscience teaching. Data from national surveys, participant feedback, and self-report data indicate the program's success in improving undergraduate geoscience education. Successes are also demonstrated in classroom observations using RTOP, indicating a significant difference in teaching style among participants and non-participants. A suite of web pages, with a planning timeline, provides guidance to those interested in designing and convening face-to-face or virtual events based on the CE model. The pages suggest ways to develop robust event goals and evaluation tools, how to choose strong leaders and recruit diverse participants, advice for designing effective event programs that utilize participant expertise, websites, and web tools, and suggestions for effectively disseminating event results and producing useful products. The CE model has been successfully transferred to projects that vary in scale and discipline. Best practices from the CE model include (1) thinking of the workshop as shared enterprise among conveners and participants; (2) incorporating conveners and participants who bring diverse viewpoints and approaches; (3) promoting structured discussions that utilize participants' expertise; (4) emphasizing practical strategies to effect change; and (5) using the website as a platform to prepare for the workshop, share ideas, and problem-solve challenges. Learn more about how to utilize this model for your project at:serc.carleton.edu/NAGTWorkshops/workshops/convene

  19. Stochastic modeling of economic injury levels with respect to yearly trends in price commodity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Damos, Petros

    2014-05-01

    The economic injury level (EIL) concept integrates economics and biology and uses chemical applications in crop protection only when economic loss by pests is anticipated. The EIL is defined by five primary variables: the cost of management tactic per production unit, the price of commodity, the injury units per pest, the damage per unit injury, and the proportionate reduction of injury averted by the application of a tactic. The above variables are related according to the formula EIL = C/VIDK. The observable dynamic alteration of the EIL due to its different parameters is a major characteristic of its concept. In this study, the yearly effect of the economic variables is assessed, and in particular the influence of the parameter commodity value on the shape of the EIL function. In addition, to predict the effects of the economic variables on the EIL level, yearly commodity values were incorporated in the EIL formula and the generated outcomes were further modelled with stochastic linear autoregressive models having different orders. According to the AR(1) model, forecasts for the five-year period of 2010-2015 ranged from 2.33 to 2.41 specimens per sampling unit. These values represent a threshold that is in reasonable limits to justify future control actions. Management actions as related to productivity and price commodity significantly affect costs of crop production and thus define the adoption of IPM and sustainable crop production systems at local and international levels. This is an open access paper. We use the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 license that permits unrestricted use, provided that the paper is properly attributed.

  20. Fear Extinction as a Model for Translational Neuroscience: Ten Years of Progress

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milad, Mohammed R.; Quirk, Gregory J.

    2016-01-01

    The psychology of extinction has been studied for decades. Approximately 10 years ago, however, there began a concerted effort to understand the neural circuits of extinction of fear conditioning, in both animals and humans. Progress during this period has been facilitated by an unusual degree of coordination between rodent and human researchers examining fear extinction. This successful research program could serve as a model for translational research in other areas of behavioral neuroscience. Here we review the major advances and highlight new approaches to understanding and exploiting fear extinction. PMID:22129456

  1. Resuscitation outcomes comparing year 2000 with year 2005 ALS guidelines in a pig model of cardiac arrest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xanthos, Theodoros; Tsirikos-Karapanos, Nikolas; Papadimitriou, Dimitrios; Vlachos, Ioannis S; Tsiftsi, Katerina; Ekmektzoglou, Konstantinos A; Papadimitriou, Lila

    2007-06-01

    Ventricular fibrillation remains the leading cause of death in western societies. International organizations publish guidelines to follow in case of cardiac arrest. The aim of the present study is to assess whether the newly published guidelines record similar resuscitation success with the 2000 Advanced Life Support Guidelines on Resuscitation in a swine model of cardiac arrest. Nineteen landrace/large white pigs were used. Ventricular fibrillation was induced with the use of a transvenous pacing wire inserted into the right ventricle. The animals were randomized into two groups. In Group A, 10 animals were resuscitated using the 2000 guidelines, whereas in Group B, 9 animals were resuscitated using the 2005 guidelines. Both algorithms recorded similar successful resuscitation rates, as 60% of the animals in Group A and 44.5% in Group B were successfully resuscitated. However, animals in Group A restored a rhythm, compatible with a pulse, quicker than those in Group B (p=0.002). Coronary perfusion pressure (CPP) was not adversely affected by three defibrillation attempts in Group A. Both algorithms' resulted in comparable resuscitation success, however, guidelines 2000 resulted in faster resuscitation times. These preliminary results merit further investigation.

  2. Estrogen receptor testing and 10-year mortality from breast cancer: A model for determining testing strategy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher Naugler

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: The use of adjuvant tamoxifen therapy in the treatment of estrogen receptor (ER expressing breast carcinomas represents a major advance in personalized cancer treatment. Because there is no benefit (and indeed there is increased morbidity and mortality associated with the use of tamoxifen therapy in ER-negative breast cancer, its use is restricted to women with ER expressing cancers. However, correctly classifying cancers as ER positive or negative has been challenging given the high reported false negative test rates for ER expression in surgical specimens. In this paper I model practice recommendations using published information from clinical trials to address the question of whether there is a false negative test rate above which it is more efficacious to forgo ER testing and instead treat all patients with tamoxifen regardless of ER test results. Methods: I used data from randomized clinical trials to model two different hypothetical treatment strategies: (1 the current strategy of treating only ER positive women with tamoxifen and (2 an alternative strategy where all women are treated with tamoxifen regardless of ER test results. The variables used in the model are literature-derived survival rates of the different combinations of ER positivity and treatment with tamoxifen, varying true ER positivity rates and varying false negative ER testing rates. The outcome variable was hypothetical 10-year survival. Results: The model predicted that there will be a range of true ER rates and false negative test rates above which it would be more efficacious to treat all women with breast cancer with tamoxifen and forgo ER testing. This situation occurred with high true positive ER rates and false negative ER test rates in the range of 20-30%. Conclusions: It is hoped that this model will provide an example of the potential importance of diagnostic error on clinical outcomes and furthermore will give an example of how the effect of that

  3. [A new working shift model for anesthesiologists: an analysis 3 years after implementation].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maschmann, J; Holderried, M; Blumenstock, G; Rieger, M A; Bamberg, M; Rosenberger, P; Wagner, T

    2012-11-01

    The aim of this study was to assess the efficacy, appropriateness and cost-effectiveness of a new working shift model for anesthesiologists complying with the European working time directive (EWTD) at the University Hospital of Tübingen (UKT), Germany 3 years after implementation Applying the standards of the EWTD is challenging for university hospitals as doctors must comply with the challenge of combining patient care, research and teaching. So far there have been no data available for German university hospitals on how these requirements can be met. As the department of anesthesiology is also a service-providing department it is essential not to increase staffing costs with a new shift model. In 2007 a new working shift model for the department of anesthesiology was designed and introduced in 2008. Shift planning and documentation of working hours were implemented electronically. The calculated number of doctors to run this model was 87.6 full time equivalents (FTE). For 2009 and 2010 the compliance with the EWTD parameters was checked for 1) average weekly working time limit (AWWTL) and 2) compliance to the maximum daily working time limit of 10 h (10 h DWTL). Furthermore, staffing costs for doctors in 2010 were compared to 2007. To check for the time spent in patient care the period of anesthetic attendance (PAA) was chosen, i.e. the total time of patient contact by anesthesiology staff. Data were analyzed descriptively for AWWTL and for 10 h DWTL. FTE, staff costs and PAA were evaluated by one-way ANOVA. The new shift model allowed 84.4 % of all doctors to comply with the individual AWWT limits of 54 h and 48 h in 2009 (81/96) and 76.0 % in 2010 (79/104). In 2009 61.5 % of anesthesiologists voted for opt-out (59/96) and 53.8 % did so in 2010 (56/104). The 10 h DWTL was respected by 84.0 % in 2009 and by 85.9 % in 2010. The mean number of anesthesiologists rose significantly from 78.4 FTE in 2007 to 82.5 FTE in 2009 and 84.6 FTE in 2010 (p

  4. Advanced Test Reactor Core Modeling Update Project Annual Report for Fiscal Year 2011

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    David W. Nigg; Devin A. Steuhm

    2011-09-01

    Legacy computational reactor physics software tools and protocols currently used for support of Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) core fuel management and safety assurance and, to some extent, experiment management are obsolete, inconsistent with the state of modern nuclear engineering practice, and are becoming increasingly difficult to properly verify and validate (V&V). Furthermore, the legacy staff knowledge required for application of these tools and protocols from the 1960s and 1970s is rapidly being lost due to staff turnover and retirements. In 2009 the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) initiated a focused effort to address this situation through the introduction of modern high-fidelity computational software and protocols, with appropriate V&V, within the next 3-4 years via the ATR Core Modeling and Simulation and V&V Update (or 'Core Modeling Update') Project. This aggressive computational and experimental campaign will have a broad strategic impact on the operation of the ATR, both in terms of improved computational efficiency and accuracy for support of ongoing DOE programs as well as in terms of national and international recognition of the ATR National Scientific User Facility (NSUF). The ATR Core Modeling Update Project, targeted for full implementation in phase with the anticipated ATR Core Internals Changeout (CIC) in the 2014 time frame, began during the last quarter of Fiscal Year 2009, and has just completed its first full year. Key accomplishments so far have encompassed both computational as well as experimental work. A new suite of stochastic and deterministic transport theory based reactor physics codes and their supporting nuclear data libraries (SCALE, KENO-6, HELIOS, NEWT, and ATTILA) have been installed at the INL under various permanent sitewide license agreements and corresponding baseline models of the ATR and ATRC are now operational, demonstrating the basic feasibility of these code packages for their intended purpose. Furthermore

  5. Advanced Test Reactor Core Modeling Update Project Annual Report for Fiscal Year 2011

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nigg, David W.; Steuhm, Devin A.

    2011-01-01

    Legacy computational reactor physics software tools and protocols currently used for support of Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) core fuel management and safety assurance and, to some extent, experiment management are obsolete, inconsistent with the state of modern nuclear engineering practice, and are becoming increasingly difficult to properly verify and validate (V and V). Furthermore, the legacy staff knowledge required for application of these tools and protocols from the 1960s and 1970s is rapidly being lost due to staff turnover and retirements. In 2009 the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) initiated a focused effort to address this situation through the introduction of modern high-fidelity computational software and protocols, with appropriate V and V, within the next 3-4 years via the ATR Core Modeling and Simulation and V and V Update (or 'Core Modeling Update') Project. This aggressive computational and experimental campaign will have a broad strategic impact on the operation of the ATR, both in terms of improved computational efficiency and accuracy for support of ongoing DOE programs as well as in terms of national and international recognition of the ATR National Scientific User Facility (NSUF). The ATR Core Modeling Update Project, targeted for full implementation in phase with the anticipated ATR Core Internals Changeout (CIC) in the 2014 time frame, began during the last quarter of Fiscal Year 2009, and has just completed its first full year. Key accomplishments so far have encompassed both computational as well as experimental work. A new suite of stochastic and deterministic transport theory based reactor physics codes and their supporting nuclear data libraries (SCALE, KENO-6, HELIOS, NEWT, and ATTILA) have been installed at the INL under various permanent sitewide license agreements and corresponding baseline models of the ATR and ATRC are now operational, demonstrating the basic feasibility of these code packages for their intended purpose

  6. Modelling radiative transfer through ponded first-year Arctic sea ice with a plane-parallel model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taskjelle, Torbjørn; Hudson, Stephen R.; Granskog, Mats A.; Hamre, Børge

    2017-09-01

    Under-ice irradiance measurements were done on ponded first-year pack ice along three transects during the ICE12 expedition north of Svalbard. Bulk transmittances (400-900 nm) were found to be on average 0.15-0.20 under bare ice, and 0.39-0.46 under ponded ice. Radiative transfer modelling was done with a plane-parallel model. While simulated transmittances deviate significantly from measured transmittances close to the edge of ponds, spatially averaged bulk transmittances agree well. That is, transect-average bulk transmittances, calculated using typical simulated transmittances for ponded and bare ice weighted by the fractional coverage of the two surface types, are in good agreement with the measured values. Radiative heating rates calculated from model output indicates that about 20 % of the incident solar energy is absorbed in bare ice, and 50 % in ponded ice (35 % in pond itself, 15 % in the underlying ice). This large difference is due to the highly scattering surface scattering layer (SSL) increasing the albedo of the bare ice.

  7. Modelling radiative transfer through ponded first-year Arctic sea ice with a plane-parallel model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Taskjelle

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Under-ice irradiance measurements were done on ponded first-year pack ice along three transects during the ICE12 expedition north of Svalbard. Bulk transmittances (400–900 nm were found to be on average 0.15–0.20 under bare ice, and 0.39–0.46 under ponded ice. Radiative transfer modelling was done with a plane-parallel model. While simulated transmittances deviate significantly from measured transmittances close to the edge of ponds, spatially averaged bulk transmittances agree well. That is, transect-average bulk transmittances, calculated using typical simulated transmittances for ponded and bare ice weighted by the fractional coverage of the two surface types, are in good agreement with the measured values. Radiative heating rates calculated from model output indicates that about 20 % of the incident solar energy is absorbed in bare ice, and 50 % in ponded ice (35 % in pond itself, 15 % in the underlying ice. This large difference is due to the highly scattering surface scattering layer (SSL increasing the albedo of the bare ice.

  8. A 40-year accumulation dataset for Adelie Land, Antarctica and its application for model validation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Agosta, Cecile; Favier, Vincent [UJF-Grenoble 1 / CNRS, Laboratoire de Glaciologie et de Geophysique de l' Environnement UMR 5183, Saint Martin d' Heres (France); Genthon, Christophe; Gallee, Hubert; Krinner, Gerhard [CNRS / UJF-Grenoble 1, Laboratoire de Glaciologie et de Geophysique de l' Environnement UMR 5183, Saint Martin d' Heres (France); Lenaerts, Jan T.M.; Broeke, Michiel R. van den [Utrecht University, Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht (Netherlands)

    2012-01-15

    The GLACIOCLIM-SAMBA (GS) Antarctic accumulation monitoring network, which extends from the coast of Adelie Land to the Antarctic plateau, has been surveyed annually since 2004. The network includes a 156-km stake-line from the coast inland, along which accumulation shows high spatial and interannual variability with a mean value of 362 mm water equivalent a{sup -1}. In this paper, this accumulation is compared with older accumulation reports from between 1971 and 1991. The mean and annual standard deviation and the km-scale spatial pattern of accumulation were seen to be very similar in the older and more recent data. The data did not reveal any significant accumulation trend over the last 40 years. The ECMWF analysis-based forecasts (ERA-40 and ERA-Interim), a stretched-grid global general circulation model (LMDZ4) and three regional circulation models (PMM5, MAR and RACMO2), all with high resolution over Antarctica (27-125 km), were tested against the GS reports. They qualitatively reproduced the meso-scale spatial pattern of the annual-mean accumulation except MAR. MAR significantly underestimated mean accumulation, while LMDZ4 and RACMO2 overestimated it. ERA-40 and the regional models that use ERA-40 as lateral boundary condition qualitatively reproduced the chronology of interannual variability but underestimated the magnitude of interannual variations. Two widely used climatologies for Antarctic accumulation agreed well with the mean GS data. The model-based climatology was also able to reproduce the observed spatial pattern. These data thus provide new stringent constraints on models and other large-scale evaluations of the Antarctic accumulation. (orig.)

  9. Transition in, Transition out: a sustainable model to engage first year students in learning. A Practice Report

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrea Chester

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Peer mentoring, presented as an inclusive teaching approach, embedded in the curriculum, has been successfully implemented to support first year student learning. Developing sustainable and scalable models for large first year cohorts, however, provides a challenge. The Transition in, Transition out model is a sustainable peer mentoring model supporting the transition of both first and final year students. The model has been implemented in two Australian psychology programs, one face-to-face and one delivered online. The focus in this Practice Report will be on the outcome data for on-campus first year student at one university. Participants were 231 first year students (166 females and 65 males. Results suggest positive changes in academic performance and learning approaches as well as positive endorsement of the model.

  10. A statistical skull geometry model for children 0-3 years old.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhigang Li

    Full Text Available Head injury is the leading cause of fatality and long-term disability for children. Pediatric heads change rapidly in both size and shape during growth, especially for children under 3 years old (YO. To accurately assess the head injury risks for children, it is necessary to understand the geometry of the pediatric head and how morphologic features influence injury causation within the 0-3 YO population. In this study, head CT scans from fifty-six 0-3 YO children were used to develop a statistical model of pediatric skull geometry. Geometric features important for injury prediction, including skull size and shape, skull thickness and suture width, along with their variations among the sample population, were quantified through a series of image and statistical analyses. The size and shape of the pediatric skull change significantly with age and head circumference. The skull thickness and suture width vary with age, head circumference and location, which will have important effects on skull stiffness and injury prediction. The statistical geometry model developed in this study can provide a geometrical basis for future development of child anthropomorphic test devices and pediatric head finite element models.

  11. A statistical skull geometry model for children 0-3 years old.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Zhigang; Park, Byoung-Keon; Liu, Weiguo; Zhang, Jinhuan; Reed, Matthew P; Rupp, Jonathan D; Hoff, Carrie N; Hu, Jingwen

    2015-01-01

    Head injury is the leading cause of fatality and long-term disability for children. Pediatric heads change rapidly in both size and shape during growth, especially for children under 3 years old (YO). To accurately assess the head injury risks for children, it is necessary to understand the geometry of the pediatric head and how morphologic features influence injury causation within the 0-3 YO population. In this study, head CT scans from fifty-six 0-3 YO children were used to develop a statistical model of pediatric skull geometry. Geometric features important for injury prediction, including skull size and shape, skull thickness and suture width, along with their variations among the sample population, were quantified through a series of image and statistical analyses. The size and shape of the pediatric skull change significantly with age and head circumference. The skull thickness and suture width vary with age, head circumference and location, which will have important effects on skull stiffness and injury prediction. The statistical geometry model developed in this study can provide a geometrical basis for future development of child anthropomorphic test devices and pediatric head finite element models.

  12. Advanced Test Reactor Core Modeling Update Project Annual Report for Fiscal Year 2012

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    David W. Nigg, Principal Investigator; Kevin A. Steuhm, Project Manager

    2012-09-01

    Legacy computational reactor physics software tools and protocols currently used for support of Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) core fuel management and safety assurance, and to some extent, experiment management, are inconsistent with the state of modern nuclear engineering practice, and are difficult, if not impossible, to properly verify and validate (V&V) according to modern standards. Furthermore, the legacy staff knowledge required for application of these tools and protocols from the 1960s and 1970s is rapidly being lost due to staff turnover and retirements. In late 2009, the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) initiated a focused effort, the ATR Core Modeling Update Project, to address this situation through the introduction of modern high-fidelity computational software and protocols. This aggressive computational and experimental campaign will have a broad strategic impact on the operation of the ATR, both in terms of improved computational efficiency and accuracy for support of ongoing DOE programs as well as in terms of national and international recognition of the ATR National Scientific User Facility (NSUF). The ATR Core Modeling Update Project, targeted for full implementation in phase with the next anticipated ATR Core Internals Changeout (CIC) in the 2014-2015 time frame, began during the last quarter of Fiscal Year 2009, and has just completed its third full year. Key accomplishments so far have encompassed both computational as well as experimental work. A new suite of stochastic and deterministic transport theory based reactor physics codes and their supporting nuclear data libraries (HELIOS, KENO6/SCALE, NEWT/SCALE, ATTILA, and an extended implementation of MCNP5) has been installed at the INL under various licensing arrangements. Corresponding models of the ATR and ATRC are now operational with all five codes, demonstrating the basic feasibility of the new code packages for their intended purpose. Of particular importance, a set of as-run core

  13. WRF-based fire risk modelling and evaluation for years 2010 and 2012 in Poland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stec, Magdalena; Szymanowski, Mariusz; Kryza, Maciej

    2016-04-01

    Wildfires are one of the main ecosystems' disturbances for forested, seminatural and agricultural areas. They generate significant economic loss, especially in forest management and agriculture. Forest fire risk modeling is therefore essential e.g. for forestry administration. In August 2015 a new method of forest fire risk forecasting entered into force in Poland. The method allows to predict a fire risk level in a 4-degree scale (0 - no risk, 3 - highest risk) and consists of a set of linearized regression equations. Meteorological information is used as predictors in regression equations, with air temperature, relative humidity, average wind speed, cloudiness and rainfall. The equations include also pine litter humidity as a measure of potential fuel characteristics. All these parameters are measured routinely in Poland at 42 basic and 94 auxiliary sites. The fire risk level is estimated for a current (basing on morning measurements) or next day (basing on midday measurements). Entire country is divided into 42 prognostic zones, and fire risk level for each zone is taken from the closest measuring site. The first goal of this work is to assess if the measurements needed for fire risk forecasting may be replaced by the data from mesoscale meteorological model. Additionally, the use of a meteorological model would allow to take into account much more realistic spatial differentiation of weather elements determining the fire risk level instead of discrete point-made measurements. Meteorological data have been calculated using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF). For the purpose of this study the WRF model is run in the reanalysis mode allowing to estimate all required meteorological data in a 5-kilometers grid. The only parameter that cannot be directly calculated using WRF is the litter humidity, which has been estimated using empirical formula developed by Sakowska (2007). The experiments are carried out for two selected years: 2010 and 2012. The

  14. Renewables in the grid. Modeling the German power market of the year 2030

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boldt, Jenny; Hankel, Lisa; Laurisch, Lilian Charlotte; Lutterbeck, Felix; Oei, Pao-Yu; Sander, Aram; Schroeder, Andreas; Schweter, Helena; Sommer, Philipp; Sulerz, Jasmin

    2012-01-01

    Renewable energy in Germany is on the rise. Recent changes in legislature, following the nuclear disaster in Fukushima, have accelerated the shift towards a renewable and sustainable energy supply. Offshore wind from the North and Baltic Sea is expected to reach nearly 30 GW by 2030, while the adequacy of the electricity grid to withstand this impact is already threatened today. Since the bulk of renewable energy comes from the North and East of Germany, while demand is far greater in the South and West, transmission infrastructure is poised to become the bottleneck of the German power market transformation. This study investigates where congestion is likely to occur along the grid, and proposes different approaches to meeting the requirements of an increasing share of renewable energy generation. A considerable amount of data for the year 2030, including, but not limited to, conventional generation, renewable generation, transmission and demand serves as the input for the welfare-maximizing DC load flow model. It consists of 40 nodes (18 within Germany, as well as 22 European countries, each modeled by a single node), 232 AC lines and 35 DC lines. The model is solved with the General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS) for four representative weeks in 2030, one for each season of the year. We investigate three different scenarios: the Reference Scenario, the Strategic South Scenario and the Direct Current (DC) Highway Scenario. - The Reference Scenario is based on the assumption that 63 percent of renewable energy power will be generated in Northern and Eastern Germany by 2030, while 62 percent of load will be located in Southern and Western Germany. This situation requires a substantial expansion of transmission infrastructure from north to south. - In the Strategic South Scenario, we explore the possibility of strategically placing renewable and conventional generation capacities to Southern and Western regions in order to make major transmission upgrades redundant

  15. Renewables in the grid. Modeling the German power market of the year 2030

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boldt, Jenny; Hankel, Lisa; Laurisch, Lilian Charlotte; Lutterbeck, Felix; Oei, Pao-Yu; Sander, Aram; Schroeder, Andreas; Schweter, Helena; Sommer, Philipp; Sulerz, Jasmin

    2012-02-15

    Renewable energy in Germany is on the rise. Recent changes in legislature, following the nuclear disaster in Fukushima, have accelerated the shift towards a renewable and sustainable energy supply. Offshore wind from the North and Baltic Sea is expected to reach nearly 30 GW by 2030, while the adequacy of the electricity grid to withstand this impact is already threatened today. Since the bulk of renewable energy comes from the North and East of Germany, while demand is far greater in the South and West, transmission infrastructure is poised to become the bottleneck of the German power market transformation. This study investigates where congestion is likely to occur along the grid, and proposes different approaches to meeting the requirements of an increasing share of renewable energy generation. A considerable amount of data for the year 2030, including, but not limited to, conventional generation, renewable generation, transmission and demand serves as the input for the welfare-maximizing DC load flow model. It consists of 40 nodes (18 within Germany, as well as 22 European countries, each modeled by a single node), 232 AC lines and 35 DC lines. The model is solved with the General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS) for four representative weeks in 2030, one for each season of the year. We investigate three different scenarios: the Reference Scenario, the Strategic South Scenario and the Direct Current (DC) Highway Scenario. - The Reference Scenario is based on the assumption that 63 percent of renewable energy power will be generated in Northern and Eastern Germany by 2030, while 62 percent of load will be located in Southern and Western Germany. This situation requires a substantial expansion of transmission infrastructure from north to south. - In the Strategic South Scenario, we explore the possibility of strategically placing renewable and conventional generation capacities to Southern and Western regions in order to make major transmission upgrades redundant

  16. Thirty years of progress in applications and modeling of ocean ambient noise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siderius, Martin; Buckingham, Michael J.

    2012-11-01

    Ambient noise in the ocean is a stochastic process, which traditionally was considered to be a nuisance, since it reduced the detectability of sonar signals of interest. However, over the last thirty years, it has come to be recognized that the ambient noise itself contains useful information about the ocean and ocean processes. To extract the information, various inversion procedures have been developed, based upon which a number of practical applications of the ambient noise have evolved. Since naturally generated ambient noise is always present in the ocean, it has the advantage of being non-invasive and non-damaging to marine life, including marine mammals. In this article, a summary of the commonly encountered ambient noise models is offered, along with the associated inversion procedures, and some of the more recent applications of the ambient noise are highlighted.

  17. Cause-effect analysis: improvement of a first year engineering students' calculus teaching model

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Hoff, Quay; Harding, Ansie

    2017-01-01

    This study focuses on the mathematics department at a South African university and in particular on teaching of calculus to first year engineering students. The paper reports on a cause-effect analysis, often used for business improvement. The cause-effect analysis indicates that there are many factors that impact on secondary school teaching of mathematics, factors that the tertiary sector has no control over. The analysis also indicates the undesirable issues that are at the root of impeding success in the calculus module. Most important is that students are not encouraged to become independent thinkers from an early age. This triggers problems in follow-up courses where students are expected to have learned to deal with the work load and understanding of certain concepts. A new model was designed to lessen the impact of these undesirable issues.

  18. A model for partnering first-year student pharmacists with community-based older adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Beth A; Porter, Andrea L; Shawl, Lauren; Motl Moroney, Susannah E

    2012-06-18

    To design, integrate, and assess the effectiveness of an introductory pharmacy practice experience intended to redefine first-year student pharmacists' views on aging and medication use through their work with a healthy, community-based older-adult population. All students (N = 273) completed live skills training in an 8-hour boot camp provided during orientation week. Teams were assigned an independently living senior partner, completed 10 visits and reflections, and documented health-related information using an electronic portfolio (e-portfolio). As determined by pre- and post-experience survey instruments, students gained significant confidence in 7 skill areas related to communication, medication interviews, involving the partner in health care, and applying patient-care skills. Student reflections, in-class presentations, and e-portfolios documented that personal attitudes toward seniors changed over time. Senior partners enjoyed mentoring and interacting with students and many experienced health improvements as a result of the interaction. The model for partnering first-year student pharmacists with community-based older adults improved students' skills and fostered their connections to pharmacist roles and growth as person-centered providers.

  19. The 2-MEV model: Constancy of adolescent environmental values within an 8-year time frame

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bogner, F. X.; Johnson, B.; Buxner, S.; Felix, L.

    2015-08-01

    The 2-MEV model is a widely used tool to monitor children's environmental perception by scoring individual values. Although the scale's validity has been confirmed repeatedly and independently as well as the scale is in usage within more than two dozen language units all over the world, longitudinal properties still need clarification. The purpose of the present study therefore was to validate the 2-MEV scale based on a large data basis of 10,676 children collected over an eight-year period. Cohorts of three different US states contributed to the sample by responding to a paper-and-pencil questionnaire within their pre-test initiatives in the context of field center programs. Since we used only the pre-program 2-MEV scale results (which is before participation in education programs), the data were clearly unspoiled by any follow-up interventions. The purpose of analysis was fourfold: First, to test and confirm the hypothesized factorized structure for the large data set and for the subsample of each of the three states. Second, to analyze the scoring pattern across the eight years' time range for both preservation and utilitarian preferences. Third, to investigate any age effects in the extracted factors. Finally, to extract suitable recommendations for educational implementation efforts.

  20. The First 24 Years of Reverse Monte Carlo Modelling, Budapest, Hungary, 20-22 September 2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keen, David A.; Pusztai, László

    2013-11-01

    This special issue contains a collection of papers reflecting the content of the fifth workshop on reverse Monte Carlo (RMC) methods, held in a hotel on the banks of the Danube in the Budapest suburbs in the autumn of 2012. Over fifty participants gathered to hear talks and discuss a broad range of science based on the RMC technique in very convivial surroundings. Reverse Monte Carlo modelling is a method for producing three-dimensional disordered structural models in quantitative agreement with experimental data. The method was developed in the late 1980s and has since achieved wide acceptance within the scientific community [1], producing an average of over 90 papers and 1200 citations per year over the last five years. It is particularly suitable for the study of the structures of liquid and amorphous materials, as well as the structural analysis of disordered crystalline systems. The principal experimental data that are modelled are obtained from total x-ray or neutron scattering experiments, using the reciprocal space structure factor and/or the real space pair distribution function (PDF). Additional data might be included from extended x-ray absorption fine structure spectroscopy (EXAFS), Bragg peak intensities or indeed any measured data that can be calculated from a three-dimensional atomistic model. It is this use of total scattering (diffuse and Bragg), rather than just the Bragg peak intensities more commonly used for crystalline structure analysis, which enables RMC modelling to probe the often important deviations from the average crystal structure, to probe the structures of poorly crystalline or nanocrystalline materials, and the local structures of non-crystalline materials where only diffuse scattering is observed. This flexibility across various condensed matter structure-types has made the RMC method very attractive in a wide range of disciplines, as borne out in the contents of this special issue. It is however important to point out that since

  1. Victimization, Suicidal Ideation, and Alcohol Use From Age 13 to 15 Years: Support for the Self-Medication Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marschall-Lévesque, Shawn; Castellanos-Ryan, Natalie; Parent, Sophie; Renaud, Johanne; Vitaro, Frank; Boivin, Michel; Tremblay, Richard E; Séguin, Jean R

    2017-04-01

    Recent years have seen increased coverage of adolescent victimization and suicide. Both adolescent peer victimization and substance use have been associated with suicidal ideation, with evidence suggesting that all three factors are interrelated. There are at least four models which can explain the associations between these factors (i.e., self-medication, secondary mental disorder, bidirectional, and common factor). However, none of them is being empirically supported as the dominant model because few longitudinal studies have explored the association between these factors. The present study compared longitudinal paths of all four models simultaneously using a cross-lagged model. This was done using self-reported measures of peer victimization, suicidal ideation, and alcohol use at age 13, 14, and 15 years in a longitudinal sample of 238 adolescents. All three variables were moderately stable across time. Significant cross-lagged associations were found, showing that frequent peer victimization at age 13 years was associated with higher odds of having suicidal ideation at age 14 years (odds ratio, 1.82; p suicidal ideation at age 14 years was significantly associated with higher alcohol use frequency at age 15 years (β = .13; p suicidal ideation and alcohol use over 1 year, supporting the self-medication model. Clarifying the empirical basis of these underlying models could allow for earlier prevention strategies, by targeting the risk factor that appears the earliest in the model. Copyright © 2016 Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. An appreciation of Bruce and Young's (1986) serial stage model of face naming after 25 years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanley, J Richard

    2011-11-01

    The current status of Bruce and Young's (1986) serial model of face naming is discussed 25 years after its original publication. In the first part of the paper, evidence for and against the serial model is reviewed. It is argued that there is no compelling reason why we should abandon Bruce and Young's claim that recall of a name is contingent upon prior retrieval of semantic information about the person. The current status of the claim that people's names are more difficult to recall than the names of objects is then evaluated. Finally, an account of the anatomical location in the brain of Bruce and Young's three processing stages (face familiarity, retrieval of semantic information, retrieval of names) is suggested. In particular, there is evidence that biographical knowledge about familiar people is stored in the right anterior temporal lobes (ATL) and that the left temporal pole (TP) is heavily involved in retrieval of the names of familiar people. The issue of whether these brain areas play a similar role in object processing is also discussed. ©2011 The British Psychological Society.

  3. Assessment of Food Chain Pathway Parameters in Biosphere Models: Annual Progress Report for Fiscal Year 2004

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Napier, Bruce A.; Krupka, Kenneth M.; Fellows, Robert J.; Cataldo, Dominic A.; Valenta, Michelle M.; Gilmore, Tyler J.

    2004-12-02

    This Annual Progress Report describes the work performed and summarizes some of the key observations to date on the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s project Assessment of Food Chain Pathway Parameters in Biosphere Models, which was established to assess and evaluate a number of key parameters used in the food-chain models used in performance assessments of radioactive waste disposal facilities. Section 2 of this report describes activities undertaken to collect samples of soils from three regions of the United States, the Southeast, Northwest, and Southwest, and perform analyses to characterize their physical and chemical properties. Section 3 summarizes information gathered regarding agricultural practices and common and unusual crops grown in each of these three areas. Section 4 describes progress in studying radionuclide uptake in several representative crops from the three soil types in controlled laboratory conditions. Section 5 describes a range of international coordination activities undertaken by Project staff in order to support the underlying data needs of the Project. Section 6 provides a very brief summary of the status of the GENII Version 2 computer program, which is a “client” of the types of data being generated by the Project, and for which the Project will be providing training to the US NRC staff in the coming Fiscal Year. Several appendices provide additional supporting information.

  4. Advanced Test Reactor Core Modeling Update Project Annual Report for Fiscal Year 2010

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rahmat Aryaeinejad; Douglas S. Crawford; Mark D. DeHart; George W. Griffith; D. Scott Lucas; Joseph W. Nielsen; David W. Nigg; James R. Parry; Jorge Navarro

    2010-09-01

    Legacy computational reactor physics software tools and protocols currently used for support of Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) core fuel management and safety assurance and, to some extent, experiment management are obsolete, inconsistent with the state of modern nuclear engineering practice, and are becoming increasingly difficult to properly verify and validate (V&V). Furthermore, the legacy staff knowledge required for application of these tools and protocols from the 1960s and 1970s is rapidly being lost due to staff turnover and retirements. In 2009 the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) initiated a focused effort to address this situation through the introduction of modern high-fidelity computational software and protocols, with appropriate V&V, within the next 3-4 years via the ATR Core Modeling and Simulation and V&V Update (or “Core Modeling Update”) Project. This aggressive computational and experimental campaign will have a broad strategic impact on the operation of the ATR, both in terms of improved computational efficiency and accuracy for support of ongoing DOE programs as well as in terms of national and international recognition of the ATR National Scientific User Facility (NSUF).

  5. 40 years of Bio-Psycho-Social model: what’s new?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kholmogorova A.B.

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Bio-Psycho-Social Model, proposed by George Engel in 1977, was recognized as a turning point in the praxis of medical diagnosis and treatments. Bio-Psycho-Social Model should be seen in a historical context as bucking against the trend of biological reductionism. Social Neuroscience has been formed ten years. Social neuroscience aims to investigate the biological systems that underlie people’s thoughts, feelings and actions in light of the social context in which they operate. Social neuroscience has captured the interest of anthropologists, psychiatrists, psychologists, and experts in other disciplines, as well as the general public who more and more draw upon the insights and methods of social neuroscience to explain, predict and change social behavior. An analysis of the current situation in neurosciences shows that new methods of instrumental brain research do not exclude biological reductionism. The authors qualify the situation in modern studies of social neuroscience as a methodological crisis associated with the prevalence of reductionist approaches that ignore the uniqueness of the human psyche. He substantiates the heuristic provisions of the cultural and historical development of Vygotsky’s psyche theory to overcome any contradictions

  6. Zinc and cadmium mobility in a 5-year-old dredged sediment deposit: experiments and modelling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lions, J. [BRGM, Orleans (France). Water Div.; Centre National de Recherche sur les Sites et Sols Pollues, Douai (France); Lee, J. van der [Ecole des Mines de Paris, Fontainebleau (France). Geosciences - Reactive Hydrodynamics Group; Guerin, V.; Bataillard, P. [BRGM, Orleans (France). Environment and Process Div.; Centre National de Recherche sur les Sites et Sols Pollues, Douai (France); Laboudigue, A. [Ecole des Mines de Douai (France). Environmental and Civil Engineering; Centre National de Recherche sur les Sites et Sols Pollues, Douai (France)

    2007-08-15

    Background. Landfill deposits of contaminated, dredged sediments are subject to chemical alteration and especially to oxidation processes. Accordingly, sulphides are gradually oxidized leading to the formation of secondary phases and associated metals could become mobile and redistributed among the sediment components, such as carbonates, clay and freshly precipitated (hydr)oxides. Once mobilised, metals could represent a hazard for the environment and especially for drinking water supply facilities. Methods. In the present study, leaching experiments have been carried out on a dredged sediment to study metal mobilisation after 5 years of field aging. First, kinetic batch tests allowed one to evaluate the impact of solid-liquid contact time and to determine the kinetic parameters. Secondly, two types of dynamic experiments have been conducted: dynamic flush reactor and column leach test to evaluate the impact of solution renewing by excluding or not excluding the transport processes, respectively. In order to evaluate the impact of calcium on the metal mobilisation, the column leaching test is conducted with pure water and Ca(NO{sub 3}){sub 2} solution, at the beginning and at the end of the injection, respectively. Geochemical and reactive transport modelling of the experiments was performed using the geochemical code CHESS and the reactive transport model HYTEC. Results and Discussion. The studied sediment is complex with numerous reactive phases such as sulphides, (hydr)oxides, organic matter, phyllosilicates. All leaching tests highlight that zinc and cadmium are mobilised in significant concentrations and lead remains insoluble. A conceptual geochemical model of the sediment has been built to allow simulations of the whole experiments, based on a single, coherent phase description and parameter set. Simulations of the batch, flush and column experiments were performed taking into account the major reaction-controlling mechanisms including, among others, p

  7. A 1260-year control integration with the coupled ECHAM1/LSG general circulation model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Storch, J.S. von [Hamburg Univ. (Germany). Meteorologisches Inst.; Kharin, V [Canadian Climate Centre, Victoria, BC (Canada); Cubasch, U [Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum (DKRZ), Hamburg (Germany); Hegerl, G C [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg (Germany); Schriever, D [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg (Germany); Storch, H von [GKSS-Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH (Germany). Inst. fuer Hydrophysik; Zorita, E [GKSS-Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH (Germany). Inst. fuer Hydrophysik

    1996-05-01

    A 1260-year integration generated by the ECHAM1/LSG coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model is analyzed in this paper. The analysis focuses on the time evolution of the model atmosphere and the model ocean, and on the variations of the final quasi-stationary atmosphere-ocean system. The evolution of the coupled system is affected by the globally integrated fluxes of heat and fresh water, the coupling shock induced by different types of fluxes prior to and after the coupling, and the insufficient spin-up of the deep ocean prior to the coupling. It is suggested that the flux correction with its unsatisfactory formulation over sea ice areas does not play the crucial role in causing the initial drift of the system. The main question concerning the atmospheric variations is whether the spatial structures of variations on short time scales are similar to those on long time scales. The answer to this question is yes. The questions concerning the oceanic variations are what are their dominant modes and to what extent are variations of different parts of the oceanic circulation related to each other. It is shown that the dominant oceanic variations are located in the North Pacific and at the southern flank of the mean position of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and in the areas where deep water from three oceans meets the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. A correlation analysis indicates further that an anomalous outflow from (inflow into) the deep Atlantic is related to an anomalous outflow from (inflow into) the deep Indian Ocean and an anomalous eastward (westward) flow along the Antarctic coast. (orig.)

  8. Prognostic models for predicting posttraumatic seizures during acute hospitalization, and at 1 and 2 years following traumatic brain injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ritter, Anne C; Wagner, Amy K; Szaflarski, Jerzy P; Brooks, Maria M; Zafonte, Ross D; Pugh, Mary Jo V; Fabio, Anthony; Hammond, Flora M; Dreer, Laura E; Bushnik, Tamara; Walker, William C; Brown, Allen W; Johnson-Greene, Doug; Shea, Timothy; Krellman, Jason W; Rosenthal, Joseph A

    2016-09-01

    Posttraumatic seizures (PTS) are well-recognized acute and chronic complications of traumatic brain injury (TBI). Risk factors have been identified, but considerable variability in who develops PTS remains. Existing PTS prognostic models are not widely adopted for clinical use and do not reflect current trends in injury, diagnosis, or care. We aimed to develop and internally validate preliminary prognostic regression models to predict PTS during acute care hospitalization, and at year 1 and year 2 postinjury. Prognostic models predicting PTS during acute care hospitalization and year 1 and year 2 post-injury were developed using a recent (2011-2014) cohort from the TBI Model Systems National Database. Potential PTS predictors were selected based on previous literature and biologic plausibility. Bivariable logistic regression identified variables with a p-value models. Multivariable logistic regression modeling with backward-stepwise elimination was used to determine reduced prognostic models and to internally validate using 1,000 bootstrap samples. Fit statistics were calculated, correcting for overfitting (optimism). The prognostic models identified sex, craniotomy, contusion load, and pre-injury limitation in learning/remembering/concentrating as significant PTS predictors during acute hospitalization. Significant predictors of PTS at year 1 were subdural hematoma (SDH), contusion load, craniotomy, craniectomy, seizure during acute hospitalization, duration of posttraumatic amnesia, preinjury mental health treatment/psychiatric hospitalization, and preinjury incarceration. Year 2 significant predictors were similar to those of year 1: SDH, intraparenchymal fragment, craniotomy, craniectomy, seizure during acute hospitalization, and preinjury incarceration. Corrected concordance (C) statistics were 0.599, 0.747, and 0.716 for acute hospitalization, year 1, and year 2 models, respectively. The prognostic model for PTS during acute hospitalization did not

  9. Informe científico de Beca de Estudio y Perfeccionamiento: Levoratti, Alejo (2012-2016)

    OpenAIRE

    Levoratti, Alejo

    2016-01-01

    A lo largo de la beca se cumplimentaron los estudios de Maestría en Antropología Social y se cumplementaron la totalidad de los creditos del Doctorado con mención en Ciencias Sociales y Humanas de la Universidad Nacional de Quilmes, tesis que actulmente se encuentra en proceso de escritura. En el período de beca, se procedió a realizar trabajo de archivo en las dependencias centrales de la Dirección General de Cultura y Educación de la provincia de Buenos Aires, de los Institutos Su...

  10. Schéma directeur des Systèmes d'information 2012-2016

    OpenAIRE

    Institut National de Recherche Agronomique UAR 0776 Administration du siège

    2012-01-01

    Le schéma directeur des systèmes d’information de l’inra est le premier Schéma directeur dont l’institut se dote dans le champ des systèmes D’information. Il couvre la période 2012‐2016 du contrat d’objectifs Et s’inscrit dans les perspectives scientifiques dressées par le document D’orientation 2010‐2020

  11. Medicinal Chemistry Insights into Novel HDAC Inhibitors: An Updated Patent Review (2012-2016).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhan, Peng; Wang, Xueshun; Liu, Xinyong; Suzuki, Takayoshi

    2017-01-01

    Many laboratories have made intensive efforts to develop potent, selective, and orally bioavailable HDAC inhibitors (HDACIs). Novel HDACIs are being developed with the objective of improving potency and selectivity against specific types of cancers or non-cancer diseases. This updated patent review is an attempt to compile the work of various researchers of HDACIs from 2012 to mid 2016, and to enlighten and surprise both newcomers in this field and devoted medicinal chemists. According to the literature research and the writers' own research experience in the discovery of HDAC inhibitors. The inhibitors possessing new chemical scaffolds have attracted immense interest because they have the ability to improve HDAC isoform specificity and pharmaceutical properties. Focus is given to emerging medicinal chemistry principles and insights into the discovery and development of HDAC inhibitors. The development of effective HDACIs is shifting from trial-and-error approaches to sophisticated strategies. Effective profiling technologies will continue to have important utility. Copyright© Bentham Science Publishers; For any queries, please email at epub@benthamscience.org.

  12. Therapeutic compounds for Cushing's syndrome: a patent review (2012-2016).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Li; Yin, Lina; Hu, Qingzhong

    2016-11-01

    Endogenous Cushing's syndrome (CS) is a set of disorders caused by chronic exposure to excess glucocorticoids induced by neuroendocrine tumors in pituitary, adrenals, and infrequently other sites (ectopic ACTH syndrome). Due to various comorbidities, CS patients exhibit higher risks of cardiovascular diseases and thus increased mortality. Pharmaceutical therapy is an important constituent of treatment regimen. Areas covered: Patents published since 2012 are reviewed, which claim therapeutic compounds interfering with ACTH secretion and down-stream signal transduction, inhibiting cortisol biosynthesis and antagonizing glucocorticoid receptors. Advances focus on a) new analogues with improved efficacy and PK properties or less off-target toxicity; b) existing drugs (candidates) being repurposed to treat CS; and c) novel strategies such as selective inhibition of CYP11B1. Expert opinion: New compounds against established targets need to be developed because current drugs lack selectivity leading to off-target toxicity. Selective inhibition of CYP11B1 is a novel alternative strategy and is potentially versatile in controlling all types of hypercortisolism. Selective multi-targeting enzymes in steroidogenesis network is promising due to potential synergistic effects. However, doses toward each targets are not feasible to adjust because the corresponding intrinsic potencies are rigid. Targeting PRKACA mutations is promising in treating CS caused by adrenal adenomas.

  13. Advancing the Use of Emergency Department Syndromic Surveillance Data, New York City, 2012-2016.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lall, Ramona; Abdelnabi, Jasmine; Ngai, Stephanie; Parton, Hilary B; Saunders, Kelly; Sell, Jessica; Wahnich, Amanda; Weiss, Don; Mathes, Robert W

    The use of syndromic surveillance has expanded from its initial purpose of bioterrorism detection. We present 6 use cases from New York City that demonstrate the value of syndromic surveillance for public health response and decision making across a broad range of health outcomes: synthetic cannabinoid drug use, heat-related illness, suspected meningococcal disease, medical needs after severe weather, asthma exacerbation after a building collapse, and Ebola-like illness in travelers returning from West Africa. The New York City syndromic surveillance system receives data on patient visits from all emergency departments (EDs) in the city. The data are used to assign syndrome categories based on the chief complaint and discharge diagnosis, and analytic methods are used to monitor geographic and temporal trends and detect clusters. For all 6 use cases, syndromic surveillance using ED data provided actionable information. Syndromic surveillance helped detect a rise in synthetic cannabinoid-related ED visits, prompting a public health investigation and action. Surveillance of heat-related illness indicated increasing health effects of severe weather and led to more urgent public health messaging. Surveillance of meningitis-related ED visits helped identify unreported cases of culture-negative meningococcal disease. Syndromic surveillance also proved useful for assessing a surge of methadone-related ED visits after Superstorm Sandy, provided reassurance of no localized increases in asthma after a building collapse, and augmented traditional disease reporting during the West African Ebola outbreak. Sharing syndromic surveillance use cases can foster new ideas and build capacity for public health preparedness and response.

  14. Normative personality trait development in adulthood: A 6-year cohort-sequential growth model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milojev, Petar; Sibley, Chris G

    2017-03-01

    The present study investigated patterns of normative change in personality traits across the adult life span (19 through 74 years of age). We examined change in extraversion, agreeableness, conscientiousness, neuroticism, openness to experience and honesty-humility using data from the first 6 annual waves of the New Zealand Attitudes and Values Study (N = 10,416; 61.1% female, average age = 49.46). We present a cohort-sequential latent growth model assessing patterns of mean-level change due to both aging and cohort effects. Extraversion decreased as people aged, with the most pronounced declines occurring in young adulthood, and then again in old age. Agreeableness, indexed with a measure focusing on empathy, decreased in young adulthood and remained relatively unchanged thereafter. Conscientiousness increased among young adults then leveled off and remained fairly consistent for the rest of the adult life span. Neuroticism and openness to experience decreased as people aged. However, the models suggest that these latter effects may also be partially due to cohort differences, as older people showed lower levels of neuroticism and openness to experience more generally. Honesty-humility showed a pronounced and consistent increase across the adult life span. These analyses of large-scale longitudinal national probability panel data indicate that different dimensions of personality follow distinct developmental processes throughout adulthood. Our findings also highlight the importance of young adulthood (up to about the age of 30) in personality trait development, as well as continuing change throughout the adult life span. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  15. Measured and modelled trends in European mountain lakes: results of fifteen years of cooperative studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michela ROGORA

    2004-02-01

    Full Text Available Papers included in this Special Issue of the Journal of Limnology present results of long-term ecological research on mountain lakes throughout Europe. Most of these studies were performed over the last 15 years in the framework of some EU-funded projects, namely AL:PE 1 and 2, MOLAR and EMERGE. These projects together considered a high number of remote lakes in different areas or lake districts in Europe. Central to the projects was the idea that mountain lakes, while subject to the same chemical and biological processes controlling lowland lakes, are more sensitive to any input from their surroundings and can be used as earlywarning indicators of atmospheric pollution and climate change. A first section of this special issue deal with the results of long-term monitoring programmes at selected key-sites. A second section focuse on site-specific and regional applications of an acidification model designed to reconstruct and predict long-term changes in the chemistry of mountain lakes.

  16. [Establish Assessment Model of 18 Years of Age in Chinese Han Population by Mandibular Third Molar].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Fei; Dai, Xin-hua; Wang, Liang; Li, Yuan; Zhang, Kui; Deng, Zhen-hua

    2016-02-01

    To explore the value of estimating chronologic age based on the grades of mandibular third molar development. To evaluate whether mandibular third molar could be used as an indicator for estimating the age under or over 18 years. The mineralization status of mandibular third molar of 1 845 individuals aged 10 - 30 was graded and marked based on Demirjian's classification of grades reformed by Orhan. Gender difference was examined by t-test. A cubic regression model was established to analyze the correlation between third molar and chronologic age. Each grade of age cumulative distribution diagram and ROC curve was respectively performed to evaluate the relationship between third molar and the age of 18. Using Bayes discriminant analysis, an equation was established for estimating the age of 18. The inner-rater reliability was 0.903. Statistical analysis showed a moderate correlation between age and grade. Significant differences of both genders were found only in grade D and H (P Third molar development shows a high correlation with age, and combined with other indicators, it can be used to estimate the age of 18.

  17. Trajectories of Heroin Addiction: Growth Mixture Modeling Results Based on a 33-Year Follow-Up Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hser, Yih-Ing; Huang, David; Chou, Chih-Ping; Anglin, M. Douglas

    2007-01-01

    This study investigates trajectories of heroin use and subsequent consequences in a sample of 471 male heroin addicts who were admitted to the California Civil Addict Program in 1964-1965 and followed over 33 years. Applying a two-part growth mixture modeling strategy to heroin use level during the first 16 years of the addiction careers since…

  18. Factor structure of a conceptual model of oral health tested among 65-year olds in Norway and Sweden.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Astrøm, Anne Nordrehaug; Ekbäck, Gunnar; Ordell, Sven

    2010-04-01

    No studies have tested oral health-related quality of life models in dentate older adults across different populations. To test the factor structure of oral health outcomes within Gilbert's conceptual model among 65-year olds in Sweden and Norway. It was hypothesized that responses to 14 observed indicators could be explained by three correlated factors, symptom status, functional limitations and oral disadvantages, that each observed oral health indicator would associate more strongly with the factor it is supposed to measure than with competing factors and that the proposed 3-factor structure would possess satisfactory cross-national stability with 65-year olds in Norway and Sweden. In 2007, 6078 Swedish- and 4062 Norwegian adults borne in 1942 completed mailed questionnaires including oral symptoms, functional limitations and the eight item Oral Impacts on Daily Performances inventory. Model generation analysis was restricted to the Norwegian study group and the model achieved was tested without modifications in Swedish 65-year olds. A modified 3-factor solution with cross-loadings, improved the fit to the data compared with a 2-factor- and the initially proposed 3-factor model among the Norwegian [comparative fit index (CFI) = 0.97] and Swedish (CFI = 0.98) participants. All factor loadings for the modified 3-factor model were in the expected direction and were statistically significant at CR > 1. Multiple group confirmatory factor analyses, with Norwegian and Swedish data simultaneously revealed acceptable fit for the unconstrained model (CFI = 0.97), whereas unconstrained and constrained models were statistically significant different in nested model comparison. Within construct validity of Gilbert's model was supported with Norwegian and Swedish 65-year olds, indicating that the 14-item questionnaire reflected three constructs; symptom status, functional limitation and oral disadvantage. Measurement invariance was confirmed at the level of factor structure

  19. Hydrogeochemical transport modeling of 24 years of Rhine water infiltration in the dunes of the Amsterdam Water Supply.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Breukelen, B.M.; Appelo, C.A.J.; Olsthoorn, T.N.

    1998-01-01

    Water quality changes were modelled along a flowpath in a plume of artificially recharged, pretreated Rhine water in the dunes of the Amsterdam Water Supply, after 24 years of infiltration. The hydrogeochemical transport model PHREEQC was extended with dispersion/diffusion and kinetics for selected

  20. Multi-model ensemble simulations of troposheric NO2 compared with GOME retrievals for the year 2000

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Noije, van T.P.C.; Eskes, H.J.; Dentener, F.J.; Stevenson, D.S.; Ellingsen, K.; Schultz, M.G.; Wild, O.; Amann, M.; Atherton, C.S.; Bergmann, D.; Bey, I.; Boersma, K.F.; Butler, T.; Cofala, J.; Drevet, J.; Fiore, A.M.; Gauss, M.; Hauglustaine, D.A.; Horowitz, L.W.; Isaksen, I.S.A.; Krol, M.C.; Lamarque, J.F.; Lawrence, M.G.; Martin, R.V.; Montanaro, V.; Muller, J.F.; Pitari, G.; Prather, M.J.; Pyle, J.A.; Richter, A.; Rodriguez, J.M.; Savage, N.H.; Strahan, S.E.; Sudo, K.; Szopa, S.; Roozendael, van M.

    2006-01-01

    We present a systematic comparison of tropospheric NO2 from 17 global atmospheric chemistry models with three state-of-the-art retrievals from the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME) for the year 2000. The models used constant anthropogenic emissions from IIASA/EDGAR3.2 and monthly emissions

  1. Development and external validation of a risk-prediction model to predict 5-year overall survival in advanced larynx cancer

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Petersen, Japke F.; Stuiver, Martijn M.; Timmermans, Adriana J.; Chen, Amy; Zhang, Hongzhen; O'Neill, James P.; Deady, Sandra; Vander Poorten, Vincent; Meulemans, Jeroen; Wennerberg, Johan; Skroder, Carl; Day, Andrew T.; Koch, Wayne; van den Brekel, Michiel W. M.

    2017-01-01

    TNM-classification inadequately estimates patient-specific overall survival (OS). We aimed to improve this by developing a risk-prediction model for patients with advanced larynx cancer. Cohort study. We developed a risk prediction model to estimate the 5-year OS rate based on a cohort of 3,442

  2. Paper for Publication in IOP: Conference Series Leachate Treatment using three Years Aged Lysimetric Bioreactor Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartono, Djoko M.; Andari Kristanto, Gabriel; Gusniani Sofian, Irma; Fauzan, Ahmad; Mahdiana, Ghanis

    2018-03-01

    This study was conducted as a response to address the problem of land availability for Cipayung landfill that no longer able to accommodate waste generation Depok City and to protect water pollution in receiving water body. Law No. 8/2008 explained that local governments and cities are required to create a sanitary landfill as a final waste processing system to replace open dumping that had been done by almost all the final processing of waste in cities in Indonesia. Sanitary landfill is the final waste processing system that works best and is environmentally friendly. The sanitary landfill will generate leachate. Leachate is the result of precipitation, evaporation, surface runoff, water infiltration into the waste, and also including the water contained in the waste. The purpose of this study was to determine the utilization of leachate generated by three years aged reactor.This study use a modeling tools as bioreactor landfill tank or so called lysimetric, that made of the polymer material that susceptible to high heat and pressure. This bioreactor landfill tank has a diameter of 0.83 m, with a surface area of 0.54 m2 and a height of 2.02 m, with the examination duration of 115 days. This tank consists of several layer, such as sand layer, solid waste layer, water layer and piping system. These layer has 3 year aged. The In this research, leachate recirculation in bioreactor landfills was conducted with waste layered loading systems with percolation system. This research has been conducted since the beginning of 2016, sampling, field measurement and analysis of leachate and waste quality carried out for approximately 115 days of field measurements.Several parameter were measured such as pH, BOD, COD, nitrate, nitrite and TSS. From the analysis of the leachate quality parameters of pH, BOD, COD, nitrite, TSS, showed a reduction in the concentration of the three reactors. The concentration of parameters measured at the initial stage until the final stage, showed a

  3. Twenty-five years of modeling multiphase flow and heat transfer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lyczkowski, R.W.

    1999-01-01

    This presentation will cover some of the highlights of multiphase modeling in collaboration with Professor Dimitri Gidaspow (DG) over the last roughly twenty-five years. It all started in 1972 in Idaho Falls with Charles Solbrig, who planned and initiated a project for the former USAEC to develop a computer code to replace RELAP4 to analyze the loss of coolant accident (LOCA). DG spent his sabbatical on the project in 1973. One highlight was the discovery of complex characteristics, the implications of which are still pondered by some. Fluidization research began in 1978 when the author collaboratively developed a step-by-step building-block approach to understanding the hydrodynamics of fluidized beds, an approach closely coupled to validation experiments. A grant from the USDOE to study solids circulation around a jet in a fluidized bed was awarded to DG in 1978. Following that, grants from GRI, NSF, and a contract from Westinghouse Electric Corp. allowed the early work to continue. Progress was slow since computer costs were high. Subsequent continuing support from the USDOE, NSF, EPRI, and industry has allowed research to continue, as has his collaboration. A highlight of this collaboration was the development of the monolayer energy dissipation (MED) erosion model. Multiphase flow and fluidization theory took quantum leaps with the publication of DG's Multiphase Flow and Fluidization: Continuum and Kinetic Theory Descriptions (MFF), Academic Press, San Diego (1994), for which there is essentially no competition. Only the late Professor S.L. Soo's Particulates and Continuum: Multiphase Fluid Dynamics, Hemisphere Publishing Corp., New York (1989), a textbook version of the classic monograph Multiphase Fluid Dynamics, Science Press, Beijing, China (1990), comes close. In MFF, the kinetic theory of granular flow has evolved as a potentially viable adjunct to the continuum multiphase theory, of which fluidization is one important manifestation. It must be

  4. Assessing allometric models to predict vegetative growth of mango (Mangifera indica; Anacardiaceae) at the current-year branch scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Normand, Frédéric; Lauri, Pierre-Éric

    2012-03-01

    Accurate and reliable predictive models are necessary to estimate nondestructively key variables for plant growth studies such as leaf area and leaf, stem, and total biomass. Predictive models are lacking at the current-year branch scale despite the importance of this scale in plant science. We calibrated allometric models to estimate leaf area and stem and branch (leaves + stem) mass of current-year branches, i.e., branches several months old studied at the end of the vegetative growth season, of four mango cultivars on the basis of their basal cross-sectional area. The effects of year, site, and cultivar were tested. Models were validated with independent data and prediction accuracy was evaluated with the appropriate statistics. Models revealed a positive allometry between dependent and independent variables, whose y-intercept but not the slope, was affected by the cultivar. The effects of year and site were negligible. For each branch characteristic, cultivar-specific models were more accurate than common models built with pooled data from the four cultivars. Prediction quality was satisfactory but with data dispersion around the models, particularly for large values. Leaf area and stem and branch mass of mango current-year branches could be satisfactorily estimated on the basis of branch basal cross-sectional area with cultivar-specific allometric models. The results suggested that, in addition to the heteroscedastic behavior of the variables studied, model accuracy was probably related to the functional plasticity of branches in relation to the light environment and/or to the number of growth units composing the branches.

  5. To Humbly Go: Guarding Against Perpetuating Models of Colonization in the 100-Year Starship Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kramer, W. R.

    Past patterns of exploration, colonization and exploitation on Earth continue to provide the predominant paradigms that guide many space programs. Any project of crewed space exploration, especially of the magnitude envisioned by the 100-Year Starship Study, must guard against the hubris that may emerge among planners, crew, and others associated with the project, including those industries and bureaucracies that will emerge from the effort. Maintaining a non-exploitative approach may be difficult in consideration of the century of preparatory research and development and the likely multigenerational nature of the voyage itself. Starting now with mission dreamers and planners, the purpose of the voyage must be cast as one of respectful learning and humble discovery, not of conquest (either actual or metaphorical) or other inappropriate models, including military. At a minimum, the Study must actively build non-violence into the voyaging culture it is beginning to create today. References to exploitive colonization, conquest, destiny and other terms from especially American frontier mythology, while tempting in their propagandizing power, should be avoided as they limit creative thinking about alternative possible futures. Future voyagers must strive to adapt to new environments wherever possible and be assimilated by new worlds both biologically and behaviorally rather than to rely on attempts to recreate the Earth they have left. Adaptation should be strongly considered over terraforming. This paper provides an overview of previous work linking the language of colonization to space programs and challenges the extension of the myth of the American frontier to the Starship Study. It argues that such metaphors would be counter-productive at best and have the potential to doom long-term success and survival by planting seeds of social decay and self-destruction. Cautions and recommendations are suggested.

  6. Near-peer role modeling: Can fourth-year medical students, recognized for their humanism, enhance reflection among second-year students in a physical diagnosis course?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mimi McEvoy

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Humanism is cultivated through reflection and self-awareness. We aimed to employ fourth-year medical students, recognized for their humanism, to facilitate reflective sessions for second-year medical students with the intention of positively influencing reflective process toward humanistic development. Methods/Analysis: A total of 186 students were randomly assigned to one of three comparison arms: eight groups of eight students (64 students were facilitated by a fourth-year student who was a Gold Humanism Honor Society member (GHHS; eight groups (64 students by a volunteer non-GHHS student; and seven groups (58 students were non-facilitated. Before sessions, second-year students set learning goals concerning interactions with patients; fourth-year students received training materials on facilitation. Groups met twice during their 10 clinical site visits. At the last session, students completed a reflective assignment on their goal progress. Comparative mixed method analyses were conducted among the three comparison arms on reflection (reflective score on in-session assignment and session satisfaction (survey in addition to a thematic analysis of responses on the in-session assignment. Results: We found significant differences among all three comparison arms on students’ reflective scores (p=0.0003 and satisfaction (p=0.0001. T-tests comparing GHHS- and non-GHHS-facilitated groups showed significantly higher mean reflective scores for GHHS-facilitated groups (p=0.033; there were no differences on session satisfaction. Thematic analysis of students’ reflections showed attempts at self-examination, but lacked depth in addressing emotions. There was a common focus on achieving comfort and confidence in clinical skills performance. Discussion/Conclusions: Near peers, recognized for their humanism, demonstrated significant influence in deepening medical students’ reflections surrounding patient interactions or humanistic

  7. Development and external validation of a risk-prediction model to predict 5-year overall survival in advanced larynx cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petersen, Japke F; Stuiver, Martijn M; Timmermans, Adriana J; Chen, Amy; Zhang, Hongzhen; O'Neill, James P; Deady, Sandra; Vander Poorten, Vincent; Meulemans, Jeroen; Wennerberg, Johan; Skroder, Carl; Day, Andrew T; Koch, Wayne; van den Brekel, Michiel W M

    2018-05-01

    TNM-classification inadequately estimates patient-specific overall survival (OS). We aimed to improve this by developing a risk-prediction model for patients with advanced larynx cancer. Cohort study. We developed a risk prediction model to estimate the 5-year OS rate based on a cohort of 3,442 patients with T3T4N0N+M0 larynx cancer. The model was internally validated using bootstrapping samples and externally validated on patient data from five external centers (n = 770). The main outcome was performance of the model as tested by discrimination, calibration, and the ability to distinguish risk groups based on tertiles from the derivation dataset. The model performance was compared to a model based on T and N classification only. We included age, gender, T and N classification, and subsite as prognostic variables in the standard model. After external validation, the standard model had a significantly better fit than a model based on T and N classification alone (C statistic, 0.59 vs. 0.55, P statistic to 0.68. A risk prediction model for patients with advanced larynx cancer, consisting of readily available clinical variables, gives more accurate estimations of the estimated 5-year survival rate when compared to a model based on T and N classification alone. 2c. Laryngoscope, 128:1140-1145, 2018. © 2017 The American Laryngological, Rhinological and Otological Society, Inc.

  8. Rapid prototyping modelling in oral and maxillofacial surgery: a two year retrospective study

    OpenAIRE

    Suomalainen, Anni; Stoor, Patricia; Mesimäki, Karri; Kontio, Risto K.

    2015-01-01

    Background The use of rapid prototyping (RP) models in medicine to construct bony models is increasing. Material and Methods The aim of the study was to evaluate retrospectively the indication for the use of RP models in oral and maxillofacial surgery at Helsinki University Central Hospital during 2009-2010. Also, the used computed tomography (CT) examination ? multislice CT (MSCT) or cone beam CT (CBCT) - method was evaluated. Results In total 114 RP models were fabricated for 102 patients. ...

  9. Microscopic Car Modeling for Intelligent Traffic and Scenario Generation in the UCF Driving Simulator : Year 2

    Science.gov (United States)

    2000-01-01

    A multi-year project was initiated to introduce autonomous vehicles in the University of Central Florida (UCF) Driving Simulator for real-time interaction with the simulator vehicle. This report describes the progress during the second year. In the f...

  10. Entry-Year Administrator Induction: A State and Local School District Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drury, William R.

    1988-01-01

    The Dayton (Ohio) City School District initiated a very successful pilot induction program for entry-year administrators in January 1987. Nine special workshops were planned to train both volunteer mentors and entry-year administrators in such areas as personal development, conflict management, problem identification and solution, time management,…

  11. The gravity model specification for modeling international trade flows and free trade agreement effects: a 10-year review of empirical studies

    OpenAIRE

    Kepaptsoglou, Konstantinos; Karlaftis, Matthew G.; Tsamboulas, Dimitrios

    2010-01-01

    The gravity model has been extensively used in international trade research for the last 40 years because of its considerable empirical robustness and explanatory power. Since their introduction in the 1960's, gravity models have been used for assessing trade policy implications and, particularly recently, for analyzing the effects of Free Trade Agreements on international trade. The objective of this paper is to review the recent empirical literature on gravity models, highlight best practic...

  12. Fighter Pilot Inventory and Requirements Model; A Ten Year Look with Impact of UAV Increase

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Garner, Russell S; Villem, Paul A

    2005-01-01

    .... In recent years, Unmanned Aerial Vehicles have become a highly sought after commodity, and the number of UAV billets have increased, with more increases expected in the near future. Currently 45...

  13. Finding foundations: A model for information literacy assessment of first-year students

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zoe Fisher

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available In Brief This article presents a case study in establishing an information literacy instruction and assessment program for first-year university students at the University of Colorado Denver. Rather than presenting assessment data, we document the process in which our department engaged with the student learning assessment cycle, with the intention of allowing other information literacy professionals to see how we established an instruction program for first-year English Composition. We include a description of in-class exercises, rubrics, and the procedures we followed in order to assess the foundational information literacy skills of first-year students on our campus. This assessment was not conducted to demonstrate what students learned from librarians (thereby illustrating the value of library instruction. Rather, we assessed student learning to ascertain the information literacy skills students bring with them into a first-year English Composition course.

  14. A Model to Predict Student Failure in the First Year of the Undergraduate Medical Curriculum

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gerard J.A. Baars

    2017-06-01

    Discussion: The earliest moment with the highest specificity to predict student failure in the first-year curriculum seems to be at 6 months. However, additional factors are needed to improve this prediction or to bring forward the predictive moment.

  15. Forty years of Fanger's model of thermal comfort: Comfort for all?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoof, van J.

    2008-01-01

    The predicted mean vote (PMV) model of thermal comfort, created by Fanger in the late 1960s, is used worldwide to assess thermal comfort. Fanger based his model on college-aged students for use in invariant environmental conditions in air-conditioned buildings in moderate thermal climate zones.

  16. Modelling the survivorship of Nigeria children in their first 10 years of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Introduction: Several studies have attributed social demographic and environmental characteristics to differentials in children mortality rates worldwide but there is paucity of information on modelling of children survival in Nigeria. In this study we modelled children survival in Nigeria and predicted their chances of survival in ...

  17. Modelling of water and chloride transport in concrete during yearly wetting/drying cycles

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Der Zanden, A.J.J.; Taher, A.; Arends, T.

    2015-01-01

    The simultaneous transport of water and chloride in concrete has been modelled. The water transport is described with a concentration dependent diffusion coefficient. The chloride transport is modelled with a convective part, caused by the water transport, and a diffusive part, caused by the

  18. A Multi-Year Plan for Enhancing Turbulence Modeling in Hydra-TH Revised and Updated Version 2.0

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, Thomas M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Berndt, Markus [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Baglietto, Emilio [Massachusetts Inst. of Technology (MIT), Cambridge, MA (United States); Magolan, Ben [Massachusetts Inst. of Technology (MIT), Cambridge, MA (United States)

    2015-10-01

    The purpose of this report is to document a multi-year plan for enhancing turbulence modeling in Hydra-TH for the Consortium for Advanced Simulation of Light Water Reactors (CASL) program. Hydra-TH is being developed to the meet the high- fidelity, high-Reynolds number CFD based thermal hydraulic simulation needs of the program. This work is being conducted within the thermal hydraulics methods (THM) focus area. This report is an extension of THM CASL milestone L3:THM.CFD.P10.02 [33] (March, 2015) and picks up where it left off. It will also serve to meet the requirements of CASL THM level three milestone, L3:THM.CFD.P11.04, scheduled for completion September 30, 2015. The objectives of this plan will be met by: maturation of recently added turbulence models, strategic design/development of new models and systematic and rigorous testing of existing and new models and model extensions. While multi-phase turbulent flow simulations are important to the program, only single-phase modeling will be considered in this report. Large Eddy Simulation (LES) is also an important modeling methodology. However, at least in the first year, the focus is on steady-state Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) turbulence modeling.

  19. PDEAR model prediction of Protea species in years 2070-2100

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Danni; Guo, Renkuan; Midgley, Guy F.; Rebelo, A. G.

    2009-10-01

    Global warming and climate changes are changing the environment and therefore changing the distribution and behaviour of the plant species. Plant species often move and change their distributions as they find their original habitats are no longer suitable to their needs. It is therefore important to establish a statistical model to catch up the movement and patterns of the endangered species in order to effectively manage environmental protection under the inevitable biodiversity changes that are taking place. In this paper, we are focusing on the population category of rare Proteas that has an estimated population size from 1 to 10 per sample site, which is very small. We used the partial differential equation associated regression (PDEAR) model, which merges the partial differential equation theory, (statistical) linear model theory and random fuzzy variable theory together into a efficient small-sample oriented model, for the spatial pattern changing analysis. The regression component in a PDEAR model is in nature a special random fuzzy multivariate regression model. We developed a bivariate model for investigating the impacts from rainfall and temperature on the Protea species in average sense in the population size of 1 to 10, in the Cape Floristic Region, from 1992 to 2002, South Africa. Under same the average biodiversity structure assumptions, we explore the future spatial change patterns of Protea species in the population size of 1 to 10 with future (average) predicted rainfall and temperature. The spatial distribution and patterns are clearly will help us to explore global climate changing impacts on endangered species.

  20. Forty years of Fanger's model of thermal comfort: comfort for all?

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Hoof, J

    2008-06-01

    The predicted mean vote (PMV) model of thermal comfort, created by Fanger in the late 1960s, is used worldwide to assess thermal comfort. Fanger based his model on college-aged students for use in invariant environmental conditions in air-conditioned buildings in moderate thermal climate zones. Environmental engineering practice calls for a predictive method that is applicable to all types of people in any kind of building in every climate zone. In this publication, existing support and criticism, as well as modifications to the PMV model are discussed in light of the requirements by environmental engineering practice in the 21st century in order to move from a predicted mean vote to comfort for all. Improved prediction of thermal comfort can be achieved through improving the validity of the PMV model, better specification of the model's input parameters, and accounting for outdoor thermal conditions and special groups. The application range of the PMV model can be enlarged, for instance, by using the model to assess the effects of the thermal environment on productivity and behavior, and interactions with other indoor environmental parameters, and the use of information and communication technologies. Even with such modifications to thermal comfort evaluation, thermal comfort for all can only be achieved when occupants have effective control over their own thermal environment. The paper treats the assessment of thermal comfort using the PMV model of Fanger, and deals with the strengths and limitations of this model. Readers are made familiar to some opportunities for use in the 21st-century information society.

  1. Relationship between US Societal Fatality Risk per Vehicle Miles of Travel and Mass, for Individual Vehicle Models over Time (Model Year)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wenzel, Tom P. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Environmental Technologies Area. Building Technology and Urban Systems Division

    2016-07-27

    This report presents a new approach to analyze the relationship between vehicle mass and risk: tracking fatality risk by vehicle model year and mass, for individual vehicle models. This approach is appealing as it greatly minimizes the influence of driver characteristics and behavior, and crash circumstances, on fatality risk. However, only the most popular vehicle models, with the largest number of fatalities, can be analyzed in this manner. While the analysis of all vehicle models of a given type suggests that there is a relationship between increased mass and fatality risk, analysis of the ten most popular four-door car models separately suggests that this relationship is weak: in many cases when the mass of a specific vehicle model is increased societal fatality risk is unchanged or even increases. These results suggest that increasing the mass of an individual vehicle model does not necessarily lead to decreased societal fatality risk.

  2. The development of personal models of diabetes in the first 2 years after diagnosis: a prospective longitudinal study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawson, V L; Bundy, C; Harvey, J N

    2008-04-01

    Personal models of diabetes comprise beliefs about symptoms, treatment effectiveness, consequences and emotional responses to possible future complications. They are associated with, and influence, self-care behaviour. Little work has examined potential influences on the development and maintenance of personal models. The aims of this study were: (i) to assess changes in personal models over 2 years from diagnosis of diabetes; and (ii) to examine the relative contributions of health threat communication (at diagnosis, since diagnosis, during follow-up care) and personality to personal models of diabetes 2 years post-diagnosis. Newly diagnosed patients were interviewed at diagnosis (time 1) and 6 months (time 2), 1 year (time 3) and 2 years (time 4) after diagnosis. Data were available for 158 patients at time 1 (32 Type 1 patients and 126 Type 2 patients), 147 at time 2, 142 at time 3 and 138 at time 4. Perceptions of symptoms, consequences, course and control of diabetes remained stable over time. Emotional responses decreased and illness coherence (perceived understanding) increased over time. Health threat communication was a stronger predictor of personal models than personality. Emotional responses to diabetes 2 years after diagnosis were predicted by perceptions of a threatening health message (at diagnosis 18%, at follow-up 5%). Health threat communication predicted perceptions of serious consequences (at diagnosis 5%, at follow-up 9%). Perceptions of a reassuring message during follow-up were related to beliefs of treatment effectiveness (26%). The communication of information and the way it is perceived is an important determinant of the patient's view of their diabetes. The initial effects of the education process at diagnosis persisted 2 years after diagnosis.

  3. FMCSA safety program effectiveness measurement : Roadside Intervention Effectiveness Model, fiscal year 2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-11-01

    The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA), in cooperation with the John A. Volpe National Transportation Systems Center, has developed an analytic model to measure the effectiveness of roadside inspections and traffic enforcements in te...

  4. FMCSA safety program effectiveness measurement : Roadside Intervention Effectiveness Model, fiscal year 2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-02-01

    The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA), in cooperation with the John A. Volpe National : Transportation Systems Center, has developed an analytic model to measure the effectiveness of roadside : inspections and traffic enforcements i...

  5. FMCSA safety program effectiveness measurement : roadside intervention effectiveness model fiscal year 2011.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-06-01

    The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA), in cooperation with the John A. Volpe National Transportation Systems Center, has developed an analytic model to measure the effectiveness of roadside inspections and traffic enforcements in te...

  6. FMCSA safety program effectiveness measurement : roadside intervention effectiveness model, fiscal year 2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-08-01

    The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA), in cooperation with the John A. Volpe National Transportation Systems Center, has developed an analytic model to measure the effectiveness of roadside inspections and traffic enforcements in te...

  7. Climatology and internal variability in a 1000-year control simulation with the coupled climate model ECHO-G

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Min, S.K.; Hense, A. [Bonn Univ. (Germany). Meteorologisches Inst.; Legutke, S.; Kwon, W.T. [Korea Meteorological Administration, Seoul (Korea). Meteorological Research Inst.

    2004-03-01

    The climatology and internal variability in a 1000-year control simulation of the coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate model ECHO-G are analyzed and compared with observations and other coupled climate model simulations. ECHO-G requires annual mean flux corrections for heat and freshwater in order to simulate no climate drift for 1000 years, but no flux corrections for momentum. The ECHO-G control run captures well most aspects of the observed seasonal and annual climatology and of the interannual to decadal variability. Model biases are very close to those in ECHAM4 stand-alone integrations with prescribed observed sea surface temperature. A trend comparison between observed and modeled near surface temperatures shows that the observed global warming at near surface level is beyond the range of internal variability produced by ECHO-G. The simulated global mean near surface temperatures, however, show a two-year spectral peak which is linked with a strong biennial bias of energy in the ENSO signal. Consequently, the interannual variability (3-9 years) is underestimated. The overall ENSO structure such as the tropical SST climate and its seasonal cycle, a single ITCZ in the eastern tropical Pacific, and the ENSO phase-locking to the annual cycle are simulated reasonably well by ECHO-G. However, the amplitude of SST variability is overestimated in the eastern equatorial pacific and the observed westward propagation of zonal wind stress over the equatorial pacific is not captured by the model. ENSO-related teleconnection patterns of near surface temperature, precipitation, and mean sea level pressure are reproduced realistically. The station-based NAO index in the model exhibits a 'white' noise spectrum similar to the observed and the NAO-related patterns of near surface temperature, precipitation, and mean sea level pressure are also simulated successfully. However, the model overestimates the additional warming over the north pacific in the high index

  8. 25-years three-fluid modeling-experience: successes and limits

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kolev, N.I.

    2004-01-01

    The paper presents many examples of successful use of the three fluid processes modeling in 1D-networks, 3D-single volumes and 3D-boundary fitted volumes in the nuclear engineering. Fig. 1 shows 2700K hot molten aluminum oxide dropped in water and 3000K uranium oxide dropped in water as a demonstration for mathematical modeling of very complex real processes. (author)

  9. Temperature responses to the 11 year solar cycle in the mesosphere from the 31 year (1979-2010) extended Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model simulations and a comparison with the 14 year (2002-2015) TIMED/SABER observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gan, Quan; Du, Jian; Fomichev, Victor I.; Ward, William E.; Beagley, Stephen R.; Zhang, Shaodong; Yue, Jia

    2017-04-01

    A recent 31 year simulation (1979-2010) by extended Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model (eCMAM30) and the 14 year (2002-2015) observation by the Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere and Dynamics/Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emssion Radiometry (TIMED/SABER) are utilized to investigate the temperature response to the 11 year solar cycle on the mesosphere. Overall, the zonal mean responses tend to increase with height, and the amplitudes are on the order of 1-2 K/100 solar flux unit (1 sfu = 10-22 W m-2 Hz-1) below 80 km and 2-4 K/100 sfu in the mesopause region (80-100 km) from the eCMAM30, comparatively weaker than those from the SABER except in the midlatitude lower mesosphere. A pretty good consistence takes place at around 75-80 km with a response of 1.5 K/100 sfu within 10°S/N. Also, a symmetric pattern of the responses about the equator agrees reasonably well between the two. It is noteworthy that the eCMAM30 displays an alternate structure with the upper stratospheric cooling and the lower mesospheric warming at midlatitudes of the winter hemisphere, in favor of the long-term Rayleigh lidar observation reported by the previous studies. Through diagnosing multiple dynamical parameters, it is manifested that this localized feature is induced by the anomalous residual circulation as a consequence of the wave-mean flow interaction during the solar maximum year.

  10. 77 FR 2028 - 2017 and Later Model Year Light-Duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Corporate Average Fuel...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-13

    .../otaq/climate/regulations.htm or by searching the public dockets (NHTSA-2010-0131 (for the proposed rule... EPA's Web site at http://www.epa.gov/otaq/climate/regulations.htm . NHTSA and EPA will consider all... vehicles for model years 2017-2025. On May 21, 2010, President Obama issued a Presidential Memorandum...

  11. 76 FR 48758 - 2017-2025 Model Year Light-Duty Vehicle GHG Emissions and CAFE Standards: Supplemental Notice of...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-08-09

    ... definitions of mild and strong HEV pickup trucks, but expect to include stop/start, regenerative braking... (light-duty vehicles) built in those model years. Together, these vehicle categories, which include... provides the opportunity to begin to transform the most challenging category of vehicles in terms of the...

  12. An Evaluation of the Model School Division (MSD) Preschool Program for the School Year 1973-74.

    Science.gov (United States)

    District of Columbia Public Schools, Washington, DC. Dept. of Research and Evaluation.

    This study was designed to assess the extent to which children served by the Model Schools Division Preschool Program developed socially, intellectually, physically and emotionally during the 1973-74 school year. This evaluation was also designed to measure the appropriateness of the learning environment and the amount of services provided by the…

  13. Developing a Hybrid Model to Predict Student First Year Retention in STEM Disciplines Using Machine Learning Techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alkhasawneh, Ruba; Hargraves, Rosalyn Hobson

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this research was to develop a hybrid framework to model first year student retention for underrepresented minority (URM) students comprising African Americans, Hispanic Americans, and Native Americans. Identifying inputs that best contribute to student retention provides significant information for institutions to learn about…

  14. 75 FR 62739 - 2017 and Later Model Year Light Duty Vehicle GHG Emissions and CAFE Standards; Notice of Intent

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-13

    ... Model Year Light Duty Vehicle GHG Emissions and CAFE Standards; Notice of Intent AGENCIES: Environmental... fuel economy (CAFE) standards in accordance with the Energy Policy and Conservation Act (EPCA), as... FR 49454, 49460 (September 28, 2009). The NHTSA CAFE standards are only based on technologies that...

  15. Computer simulation model for the striped bass young-of-the-year population in the Hudson River

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eraslan, A.H.; Van Winkle, W.; Sharp, R.D.; Christensen, S.W.; Goodyear, C.P.; Rush, R.M.; Fulkerson, W.

    1975-09-01

    This report presents a daily transient (tidal-averaged), longitudinally one-dimensional (cross-section-averaged) computer simulation model for the assessment of the entrainment and impingement impacts of power plant operations on young-of-the-year populations of the striped bass, Morone saxatilis, in the Hudson River

  16. Modeling Racial Differences in the Effects of Racial Representation on 2-Year College Student Success

    Science.gov (United States)

    Museus, Samuel D.; Jayakumar, Uma M.; Robinson, Thomas

    2012-01-01

    The failure of many 2-year college students to persist and complete a post-secondary credential or degree remains a problem of paramount importance to higher education policymakers and practitioners. While racial representation--or the extent to which a student's racial group is represented on their respective campus--might be one factor that…

  17. Cause-Effect Analysis: Improvement of a First Year Engineering Students' Calculus Teaching Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Hoff, Quay; Harding, Ansie

    2017-01-01

    This study focuses on the mathematics department at a South African university and in particular on teaching of calculus to first year engineering students. The paper reports on a cause-effect analysis, often used for business improvement. The cause-effect analysis indicates that there are many factors that impact on secondary school teaching of…

  18. Modelling the survivorship of Nigeria children in their first 10 years of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Fagbamigbe

    We computed the probability of survival and mortality rates for the first five years and .... plotting completed parity distributions and 'time-plotting' mean numbers of children ever .... Then the adjusted number at risk (nj )at the start of the interval could be obtained using ..... facilities, trained health workers, better nutrition etc.

  19. Anatomy Integration Blueprint: A Fourth-Year Musculoskeletal Anatomy Elective Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lazarus, Michelle D.; Kauffman, Gordon L., Jr.; Kothari, Milind J.; Mosher, Timothy J.; Silvis, Matthew L.; Wawrzyniak, John R.; Anderson, Daniel T.; Black, Kevin P.

    2014-01-01

    Current undergraduate medical school curricular trends focus on both vertical integration of clinical knowledge into the traditionally basic science-dedicated curricula and increasing basic science education in the clinical years. This latter type of integration is more difficult and less reported on than the former. Here, we present an outline of…

  20. Thirty Years with EoS/GE Models - What Have We Learned?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kontogeorgis, Georgios M.; Coutsikos, Philippos

    2012-01-01

    Thirty years of research and the use of EoS/GE mixing rules in cubic equations of state are reviewed. The most popular approaches are presented both from the derivation and application points of view and they are compared to each other. It is shown that all methods have significant capabilities b...

  1. Beautiful Models: 70 Years of Exactly Solved Quantum Many-Body Problems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Batchelor, M T

    2005-01-01

    A key element of theoretical physics is the conceptualisation of physical phenomena in terms of models, which are then investigated by the tools at hand. For quantum many-body systems, some models can be exactly solved, i.e., their physical properties can be calculated in an exact fashion. There is often a deep underlying reason why this can be done-the theory of integrability-which manifests itself in many guises. In Beautiful models, Bill Sutherland looks at exactly solved models in quantum many-body systems, a well established field dating back to Bethe's 1931 exact solution of the spin-1/2 Heisenberg chain. This field is enjoying a renaissance due to the ongoing and striking experimental advances in low-dimensional quantum physics, which includes the manufacture of quasi one-dimensional quantum gases. Apart from the intrinsic beauty of the subject material, Beautiful Models is written by a pioneering master of the field. Sutherland has aimed to provide a broad textbook style introduction to the subject for graduate students and interested non-experts. An important point here is the 'language' of the book. In Sutherland's words, the subject of exactly solved models 'belongs to the realm of mathematical physics-too mathematical to be 'respectable' physics, yet not rigorous enough to be 'real' mathematics. ...there are perennial attempts to translate this body of work into either respectable physics or real mathematics; this is not that sort of book.' Rather, Sutherland discusses the models and their solutions in terms of their 'intrinisic' language, which is largely as found in the physics literature. The book begins with a helpful overview of the contents and then moves on to the foundation material, which is the chapter on integrability and non-diffraction. As is shown, these two concepts go hand in hand. The topics covered in later chapters include models with δ-function potentials, the Heisenberg spin chain, the Hubbard model, exchange models, the Calogero

  2. Beautiful Models: 70 Years of Exactly Solved Quantum Many-Body Problems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Batchelor, M T [Department of Theoretical Physics, RSPSE and Department of Mathematics, MSI, Australian National University, Canberra ACT 0200 (Australia)

    2005-04-08

    A key element of theoretical physics is the conceptualisation of physical phenomena in terms of models, which are then investigated by the tools at hand. For quantum many-body systems, some models can be exactly solved, i.e., their physical properties can be calculated in an exact fashion. There is often a deep underlying reason why this can be done-the theory of integrability-which manifests itself in many guises. In Beautiful models, Bill Sutherland looks at exactly solved models in quantum many-body systems, a well established field dating back to Bethe's 1931 exact solution of the spin-1/2 Heisenberg chain. This field is enjoying a renaissance due to the ongoing and striking experimental advances in low-dimensional quantum physics, which includes the manufacture of quasi one-dimensional quantum gases. Apart from the intrinsic beauty of the subject material, Beautiful Models is written by a pioneering master of the field. Sutherland has aimed to provide a broad textbook style introduction to the subject for graduate students and interested non-experts. An important point here is the 'language' of the book. In Sutherland's words, the subject of exactly solved models 'belongs to the realm of mathematical physics-too mathematical to be 'respectable' physics, yet not rigorous enough to be 'real' mathematics. ...there are perennial attempts to translate this body of work into either respectable physics or real mathematics; this is not that sort of book.' Rather, Sutherland discusses the models and their solutions in terms of their 'intrinisic' language, which is largely as found in the physics literature. The book begins with a helpful overview of the contents and then moves on to the foundation material, which is the chapter on integrability and non-diffraction. As is shown, these two concepts go hand in hand. The topics covered in later chapters include models with {delta}-function potentials, the

  3. Model independent foreground power spectrum estimation using WMAP 5-year data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ghosh, Tuhin; Souradeep, Tarun; Saha, Rajib; Jain, Pankaj

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, we propose and implement on WMAP 5 yr data a model independent approach of foreground power spectrum estimation for multifrequency observations of the CMB experiments. Recently, a model independent approach of CMB power spectrum estimation was proposed by Saha et al. 2006. This methodology demonstrates that the CMB power spectrum can be reliably estimated solely from WMAP data without assuming any template models for the foreground components. In the current paper, we extend this work to estimate the galactic foreground power spectrum using the WMAP 5 yr maps following a self-contained analysis. We apply the model independent method in harmonic basis to estimate the foreground power spectrum and frequency dependence of combined foregrounds. We also study the behavior of synchrotron spectral index variation over different regions of the sky. We use the full sky Haslam map as an external template to increase the degrees of freedom, while computing the synchrotron spectral index over the frequency range from 408 MHz to 94 GHz. We compare our results with those obtained from maximum entropy method foreground maps, which are formed in pixel space. We find that relative to our model independent estimates maximum entropy method maps overestimate the foreground power close to galactic plane and underestimates it at high latitudes.

  4. Great Britain Storm Surge Modeling for a 10,000-Year Stochastic Catalog with the Effect of Sea Level Rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keshtpoor, M.; Carnacina, I.; Blair, A.; Yablonsky, R. M.

    2017-12-01

    Storm surge caused by Extratropical Cyclones (ETCs) has significantly impacted not only the life of private citizens but also the insurance and reinsurance industry in Great Britain. The storm surge risk assessment requires a larger dataset of storms than the limited recorded historical ETCs. Thus, historical ETCs were perturbed to generate a 10,000-year stochastic catalog that accounts for surge-generating ETCs in the study area with return periods from one year to 10,000 years. Delft3D-Flexible Mesh hydrodynamic model was used to numerically simulate the storm surge along the Great Britain coastline. A nested grid technique was used to increase the simulation grid resolution up to 200 m near the highly populated coastal areas. Coarse and fine mesh models were calibrated and validated using historical recorded water elevations. Then, numerical simulations were performed on a 10,000-year stochastic catalog. The 50-, 100-, and 500-year return period maps were generated for Great Britain coastal areas. The corresponding events with return periods of 50-, 100-, and 500-years in Humber Bay and Thames River coastal areas were identified, and simulated with the consideration of projected sea level rises to reveal the effect of rising sea levels on the inundation return period maps in two highly-populated coastal areas. Finally, the return period of Storm Xaver (2013) was determined with and without the effect of rising sea levels.

  5. A model of Earth’s magnetic field derived from 2 years of Swarm satellite constellation data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Nils; Finlay, Chris; Kotsiaros, Stavros

    2016-01-01

    More than 2 years of magnetic field data taken by the three-satellite constellation mission Swarm are used to derive a model of Earth’s magnetic field and its time variation. This model is called SIFMplus. In addition to the magnetic field observations provided by each of the three Swarm satellites...... the North–South gradient. The SIFMplus model provides a description of the static lithospheric field that is very similar to models determined from CHAMP data, up to at least spherical harmonic degree n=75. Also the core field part of SIFMplus, with a quadratic time dependence for n≤6 and a linear time...... with the model of the core, lithospheric and large-scale magnetospheric fields, a magnetic potential that depends on quasi-dipole latitude and magnetic local time....

  6. Solid waste integrated cost analysis model: 1991 project year report. Part 2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1991-12-31

    The purpose of the City of Houston`s 1991 Solid Waste Integrated Cost Analysis Model (SWICAM) project was to continue the development of a computerized cost analysis model. This model is to provide solid waste managers with tool to evaluate the dollar cost of real or hypothetical solid waste management choices. Those choices have become complicated by the implementation of Subtitle D of the Resources Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) and the EPA`s Integrated Approach to managing municipal solid waste;. that is, minimize generation, maximize recycling, reduce volume (incinerate), and then bury (landfill) only the remainder. Implementation of an integrated solid waste management system involving all or some of the options of recycling, waste to energy, composting, and landfilling is extremely complicated. Factors such as hauling distances, markets, and prices for recyclable, costs and benefits of transfer stations, and material recovery facilities must all be considered. A jurisdiction must determine the cost impacts of implementing a number of various possibilities for managing, handling, processing, and disposing of waste. SWICAM employs a single Lotus 123 spreadsheet to enable a jurisdiction to predict or assess the costs of its waste management system. It allows the user to select his own process flow for waste material and to manipulate the model to include as few or as many options as he or she chooses. The model will calculate the estimated cost for those choices selected. The user can then change the model to include or exclude waste stream components, until the mix of choices suits the user. Graphs can be produced as a visual communication aid in presenting the results of the cost analysis. SWICAM also allows future cost projections to be made.

  7. 25 Years of DECOVALEX - Research Advances and Lessons Learned from an International Model Comparison Initiative

    Science.gov (United States)

    Birkholzer, J. T.

    2017-12-01

    This presentation provides an overview of an international research and model comparison collaboration (DECOVALEX) for advancing the understanding and modeling of coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical-chemical (THMC) processes in geological systems. Prediction of these coupled effects is an essential part of the performance and safety assessment of geologic disposal systems for radioactive waste and spent nuclear fuel, and is also relevant for a range of other sub-surface engineering activities. DECOVALEX research activities have been supported by a large number of radioactive-waste-management organizations and regulatory authorities. Research teams from more than a dozen international partner organizations have participated in the comparative modeling evaluation of complex field and laboratory experiments in the UK, Switzerland, Japan, France and Sweden. Together, these tasks (1) have addressed a wide range of relevant issues related to engineered and natural system behavior in argillaceous, crystalline and other host rocks, (2) have yielded in-depth knowledge of coupled THM and THMC processes associated with nuclear waste repositories and wider geo-engineering applications, and (3) have advanced the capability, as well as demonstrated the suitability, of numerical simulation models for quantitative analysis.

  8. Twenty years at the margins: the Herman-Chomsky propaganda model, 1988-2008

    OpenAIRE

    Mullen, Andy

    2008-01-01

    2008 marks the 20th anniversary of the publication of Manufacturing Consent: The Political Economy of the Mass Media by Edward S. Herman and Noam Chomsky. This comment briefly assesses how the Herman-Chomsky Propaganda Model (PM) has been received within the field of media and communication studies in the United Kingdom.

  9. Modeling diarrhea disease in children less than 5 years old: a GAM and GLM approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    sharif mahmood

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-qformat:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin-top:0in; mso-para-margin-right:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:10.0pt; mso-para-margin-left:0in; line-height:115%; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin;} This paper presents the application of generalized additive model (GAM and generalized linear model (GLM as an exploratory tool for analyzing the factors that affect the occurrence of diarrhea of Bangladeshi child. The relation between the factors that are related with occurrence of diarrhea can be obtained by modeling parametric approach (GLM. But in practice the relation is not straight forward and we require elaborate explanations which incline semiparametric regression (GAM. We present a unified approach for analyzing factors affecting diarrhea via GLM and GAM. We applied Akaike's information criterion to select the best model for our data. Our study analyzes nonlinear resolution of covariate not available with traditional parametric models and the results provide some evidence on how to reduce occurrence of diarrhea by improving socio-economic and public health conditions.

  10. Model application of Murabahah financing acknowledgement statement of Sharia accounting standard No 59 Year 2002

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muda, Iskandar; Panjaitan, Rohdearni; Erlina; Ginting, Syafruddin; Maksum, Azhar; Abubakar

    2018-03-01

    The purpose of this research is to observe murabahah financing implantation model. Observations were made on one of the sharia banks going public in Indonesia. Form of implementation of such implementation in the form of financing given the exact facilities and maximum financing, then the provision of financing should be adjusted to the type, business conditions and business plans prospective mudharib. If the financing provided is too low with the mudharib requirement not reaching the target and the financing is not refundable.

  11. Geostatistical model-based estimates of schistosomiasis prevalence among individuals aged = 20 years in West Africa

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schur, Nadine; Hürlimann, Eveline; Garba, Amadou

    2011-01-01

    Schistosomiasis is a water-based disease that is believed to affect over 200 million people with an estimated 97% of the infections concentrated in Africa. However, these statistics are largely based on population re-adjusted data originally published by Utroska and colleagues more than 20 years...... ago. Hence, these estimates are outdated due to large-scale preventive chemotherapy programs, improved sanitation, water resources development and management, among other reasons. For planning, coordination, and evaluation of control activities, it is essential to possess reliable schistosomiasis...

  12. 8 years of experience in international, interdisciplinary and structured doctoral training in Earth system modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weitz, Antje; Stevens, Bjorn; Marotzke, Jochem

    2010-05-01

    The mission of the International Max Planck Research School on Earth System Modelling (IMPRS-ESM) is to provide a high quality, modern and structured graduate education to students pursuing a doctoral degree in Earth system modelling. In so doing, the IMPRS-ESM also strives to advance the emerging discipline (or cross-discipline) of Earth system modelling; to provide a framework for attracting the most talented and creative young women and men from around the world to pursue their doctoral education in Germany; to provide advanced as well as specialized academic training and scientific guidance to doctoral students; to encourage academic networking and publication of research results; to better integrate doctoral research at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M) with education and research at the University of Hamburg and other cooperating institutions. Core elements are rigorous selection of doctoral students, effective academic supervision, advanced academic training opportunities and interdisciplinary communication as well as administrative support. IMPRS-ESM graduates have been recognized with a variety of awards. 85% of our alumni continue a career in research. In this presentation we review the challenges for an interdisciplinary PhD program in Earth system sciences and the types of routines we have implemented to surmount them as well as key elements that we believe contribute to the success of our doctoral program.

  13. Cervical cancer screening in Australia: modelled evaluation of the impact of changing the recommended interval from two to three years

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Howard Kirsten

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The National Cervical Screening Program in Australia currently recommends that sexually active women between the ages of 18-70 years attend routine screening every 2 years. The publically funded National HPV Vaccination Program commenced in 2007, with catch-up in females aged 12-26 years conducted until 2009; and this may prompt consideration of whether the screening interval and other aspects of the organized screening program could be reviewed. The aim of the current evaluation was to assess the epidemiologic outcomes and cost implications of changing the recommended screening interval in Australia to 3 years. Methods We used a modelling approach to evaluate the effects of moving to a 3-yearly recommended screening interval. We used data from the Victorian Cervical Cytology Registry over the period 1997-2007 to model compliance with routine screening under current practice, and registry data from other countries with 3-yearly recommendations to inform assumptions about future screening behaviour under two alternative systems for screening organisation - retention of a reminder-based system (as in New Zealand, or a move to a call-and-recall system (as in England. Results A 3-yearly recommendation is predicted to be of similar effectiveness to the current 2-yearly recommendation, resulting in no substantial change to the total number of incident cervical cancer cases or cancer deaths, or to the estimated 0.68% average cumulative lifetime risk of cervical cancer in unvaccinated Australian women. However, a 3-yearly screening policy would be associated with decreases in the annual number of colposcopy and biopsy procedures performed (by 4-10% and decreases in the number of treatments for pre-invasive lesions (by 2-4%. The magnitude of the decrease in the number of diagnostic procedures and treatments would depend on the method of screening organization, with call-and-recall screening associated with the highest reductions. The

  14. Ready to learn physics: a team-based learning model for first year university

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parappilly, Maria; Schmidt, Lisa; De Ritter, Samantha

    2015-09-01

    Team-based learning (TBL) is an established model of group work which aims to improve students' ability to apply discipline-related content. TBL consists of a readiness assurance process (RAP), student groups and application activities. While TBL has not been implemented widely in science, technology, engineering and mathematics disciplines, it has been effective in improving student learning in other disciplines. This paper describes the incorporation of TBL activities into a non-calculus based introductory level physics topic—Physics for the Modern World. Students were given pre-class preparation materials and an individual RAP online test before the workshops. The pre-workshop individual RAP test ensured that all students were exposed to concept-based questions before their workshops and motivated them to use the preparatory materials in readiness for the workshop. The students were placed into random teams and during the first part of the workshop, the teams went through a subset of the quiz questions (team RAP test) and in the remaining time, teams completed an in-class assignment. After the workshop students were allowed another attempt at the individual RAP test to see if their knowledge had improved. The ability of TBL to promote student learning of key concepts was evaluated by experiment using pre- and post- testing. The students’ perception of TBL was monitored by discussion posts and survey responses. Finally, the ability of TBL to support peer-peer interaction was evaluated by video analysis of the class. We found that the TBL process improved student learning; students did interact with each other in class; and the students had a positive view of TBL. To assess the transferability of this model to other topics, we conducted a comparison study with an environmental science topic which produced similar results. Our study supports the use of this TBL model in science topics.

  15. Cloud vector mapping using MODIS 09 Climate Modeling Grid (CMG) for the year 2010 and 2011

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jah, Asjad Asif; Farrukh, Yousaf Bin; Ali, Rao Muhammad Saeed

    2013-01-01

    An alternate use for MODIS images was sought by mapping cloud movement directions and dissipation time during the 2010 and 2011 floods. MODIS Level-02 daily CMG (Climate Modelling Grid) land-cover images were downloaded and subsequently rectified and clipped to the study area. These images were then put together to observe the direction of cloud movement and vectorize the observed paths. Initial findings suggest that usually cloud does not have a prolonged coverage period over the northern humid region of the country and dissipates within less than 24-hours. Additionally, this led to the development of a robust methodology for cloud motion analysis using FOSS and market leading GIS utilities

  16. Drivers of inorganic carbon dynamics in first-year sea ice: A model study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Moreau, Sebastien; Vancoppenolle, Martin; Delille, Bruno

    2015-01-01

    , of total dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and total alkalinity (TA) are represented using fluid transport equa- tions. Carbonate chemistry, the consumption, and release of CO2 by primary production and respiration, the precipitation and dissolution of ikaite (CaCO3ﰀ6H2O) and ice-air CO2 fluxes, are also...... included. The model is evaluated using observations from a 6 month field study at Point Barrow, Alaska, and an ice-tank experi- ment. At Barrow, results show that the DIC budget is mainly driven by physical processes, wheras brine-air CO2 fluxes, ikaite formation, and net primary production, are secondary...

  17. Ten Years of Cloud Properties from MODIS: Global Statistics and Use in Climate Model Evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Platnick, Steven E.

    2011-01-01

    The NASA Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), launched onboard the Terra and Aqua spacecrafts, began Earth observations on February 24, 2000 and June 24,2002, respectively. Among the algorithms developed and applied to this sensor, a suite of cloud products includes cloud masking/detection, cloud-top properties (temperature, pressure), and optical properties (optical thickness, effective particle radius, water path, and thermodynamic phase). All cloud algorithms underwent numerous changes and enhancements between for the latest Collection 5 production version; this process continues with the current Collection 6 development. We will show example MODIS Collection 5 cloud climatologies derived from global spatial . and temporal aggregations provided in the archived gridded Level-3 MODIS atmosphere team product (product names MOD08 and MYD08 for MODIS Terra and Aqua, respectively). Data sets in this Level-3 product include scalar statistics as well as 1- and 2-D histograms of many cloud properties, allowing for higher order information and correlation studies. In addition to these statistics, we will show trends and statistical significance in annual and seasonal means for a variety of the MODIS cloud properties, as well as the time required for detection given assumed trends. To assist in climate model evaluation, we have developed a MODIS cloud simulator with an accompanying netCDF file containing subsetted monthly Level-3 statistical data sets that correspond to the simulator output. Correlations of cloud properties with ENSO offer the potential to evaluate model cloud sensitivity; initial results will be discussed.

  18. A post audit and inverse modeling in reactive transport: 50 years of artificial recharge in the Amsterdam Water Supply Dunes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karlsen, R. H.; Smits, F. J. C.; Stuyfzand, P. J.; Olsthoorn, T. N.; van Breukelen, B. M.

    2012-08-01

    SummaryThis article describes the post audit and inverse modeling of a 1-D forward reactive transport model. The model simulates the changes in water quality following artificial recharge of pre-treated water from the river Rhine in the Amsterdam Water Supply Dunes using the PHREEQC-2 numerical code. One observation dataset is used for model calibration, and another dataset for validation of model predictions. The total simulation time of the model is 50 years, from 1957 to 2007, with recharge composition varying on a monthly basis and the post audit is performed 26 years after the former model simulation period. The post audit revealed that the original model could reasonably predict conservative transport and kinetic redox reactions (oxygen and nitrate reduction coupled to the oxidation of soil organic carbon), but showed discrepancies in the simulation of cation exchange. Conceptualizations of the former model were inadequate to accurately simulate water quality changes controlled by cation exchange, especially concerning the breakthrough of potassium and magnesium fronts. Changes in conceptualization and model design, including the addition of five flow paths, to a total of six, and the use of parameter estimation software (PEST), resulted in a better model to measurement fit and system representation. No unique parameter set could be found for the model, primarily due to high parameter correlations, and an assessment of the predictive error was made using a calibration constrained Monte-Carlo method, and evaluated against field observations. The predictive error was found to be low for Na+ and Ca2+, except for greater travel times, while the K+ and Mg2+ error was restricted to the exchange fronts at some of the flow paths. Optimized cation exchange coefficients were relatively high, especially for potassium, but still within the observed range in literature. The exchange coefficient for potassium agrees with strong fixation on illite, a main clay mineral in

  19. The Effect of Talking Drawings on Five-Year-Old Turkish Children's Mental Models of the Water Cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahi, Berat

    2017-01-01

    The purpose of the current study is to determine the effect of talking drawings on Turkish preschool children's mental models of the water cycle. The study was conducted in the city of Kastamonu, located in the north-west of Turkey. A total of 40 five-year-old preschool children participated in the study in the spring term of the 2015-2016 school…

  20. Cosmology and Particle Physics beyond Standard Models Ten Years of the SEENET-MTP Network

    CERN Document Server

    Álvarez-Gaumé, Luis; Stojkovic, Dejan

    2014-01-01

    This publication - "Cosmology and Particle Physics beyond Standard Models" - is dedicated to the celebration of the tenth anniversary of the Southeastern European Network in Mathematical and Theoretical Physics (SEENET-MTP). As a Theme Collection, rather than a Monograph or Proceedings, this volume presents a number of reports and overviews, a few research papers and a short note. However, some of them are excellent examples of a nowadays increasingly deep interplay between particle physics and cosmology. Contributions span a wide range of topics in cosmology, particle physics, but also gravity, including the interface of these fields. The presented work is of both theoretical and experimental/ observational nature. The contributions represent recent progress in their respective fields: inflation, dark matter, neutrino physics, supersymmetry, collider physics, string theory, quantum gravity, black hole physics and massive gravity.

  1. Drivers of inorganic carbon dynamics in first-year sea ice: A model study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreau, Sébastien; Vancoppenolle, Martin; Delille, Bruno; Tison, Jean-Louis; Zhou, Jiayun; Kotovich, Marie; Thomas, David; Geilfus, Nicolas-Xavier; Goosse, Hugues

    2015-04-01

    Sea ice is an active source or a sink for carbon dioxide (CO2), although to what extent is not clear. Here, we analyze CO2 dynamics within sea ice using a one-dimensional halo-thermodynamic sea ice model including gas physics and carbon biogeochemistry. The ice-ocean fluxes, and vertical transport, of total dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and total alkalinity (TA) are represented using fluid transport equations. Carbonate chemistry, the consumption and release of CO2 by primary production and respiration, the precipitation and dissolution of ikaite (CaCO3•6H2O) and ice-air CO2 fluxes, are also included. The model is evaluated using observations from a 6-month field study at Point Barrow, Alaska and an ice-tank experiment. At Barrow, results show that the DIC budget is mainly driven by physical processes, wheras brine-air CO2 fluxes, ikaite formation, and net primary production, are secondary factors. In terms of ice-atmosphere CO2 exchanges, sea ice is a net CO2 source and sink in winter and summer, respectively. The formulation of the ice-atmosphere CO2 flux impacts the simulated near-surface CO2 partial pressure (pCO2), but not the DIC budget. Because the simulated ice-atmosphere CO2 fluxes are limited by DIC stocks, and therefore < 2 mmol m-2 day-1, we argue that the observed much larger CO2 fluxes from eddy covariance retrievals cannot be explained by a sea ice direct source and must involve other processes or other sources of CO2. Finally, the simulations suggest that near surface TA/DIC ratios of ~2, sometimes used as an indicator of calcification, would rather suggest outgassing.

  2. Time-series photometric spot modeling. 2: Fifteen years of photometry of the bright RS CVn binary HR 7275

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strassmeier, K. G.; Hall, D. S.; Henry, G. W.

    1994-01-01

    We present a time-dependent spot modeling analysis of 15 consecutive years of V-band photometry of the long-period (P(sub orb) = 28.6 days) RS CVn binary HR 7275. This baseline in time is one of the longest, uninterrupted intervals a spotted star has been observed. The spot modeling analysis yields a total of 20 different spots throughout the time span of our observations. The distribution of the observed spot migration rates is consistent with solar-type differential rotation and suggests a lower limit of the differential-rotation coefficient of 0.022 +/-0.004. The observed, maximum lifetime of a single spot (or spot group) is 4.5 years, the minimum lifetime is approximately one year, but an average spot lives for 2.2 years. If we assume that the mechanical shear by differential rotation sets the upper limit to the spot lifetime, the observed maximum lifetime in turn sets an upper limit to the differential-rotation coefficient, namely 0.04 +/- 0.01. This would be differential rotation just 5 to 8 times less than the solar value and one of the strongest among active binaries. We found no conclusive evidence for the existence of a periodic phenomenon that could be attributed to a stellar magnetic cycle.

  3. Modelling the lay expert for first-year medical students: the actor-patient as teacher.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nestel, Debra; Muir, Elizabeth; Plant, Marilyn; Kidd, Jane; Thurlow, Sue

    2002-09-01

    Actors are widely used in medical education as simulated patients. In this session, the role of actors was extended to 'simulated students' and facilitators in an introductory communication session. After an initial activity with the entire cohort of first-year students, groups of 20 students worked with either an actor or medical teacher in three activities. The activities aimed to raise students' awareness of the range of communication challenges in medical education and practice. After the session, students completed evaluation forms based on their experiences in the session. The results revealed no difference between students who were facilitated by actors or medical teachers in relation to meeting the learning objectives and their ratings of the usefulness of the activities to support learning. The actors who participated in this session were experienced in working with medical students. Their enhanced role provides students with an opportunity to identify with and reflect on the expertise of a lay teacher and to consider extending their definition of a learning opportunity to more informal encounters.

  4. Southern Arizona hydroclimate over the last 3000 years: a comparison of speleothem elemental data and climate model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, J.; Harrington, M. D.; Cole, J. E.; Drysdale, R.; Woodhead, J. D.; Fasullo, J.; Stevenson, S.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.; Overpeck, J. T.; Edwards, R. L.; Henderson, G. M.

    2017-12-01

    Understanding long-term hydroclimate is particularly important in semiarid regions where prolonged droughts may be exacerbated by a warming climate. In many regions, speleothem trace elements correlate with regional wet and dry climate signals. In the drought-prone Southwestern US (SW), wet and dry episodes are strongly influenced by seasonal changes in atmospheric circulation and teleconnections to remote forcing. Here, we address the need for seasonal moisture reconstructions using paleoclimate and climate model approaches. First, we present a high-resolution (sub-annual) record of speleothem trace elements spanning the last 3000 years from Fort Huachuca Cave, AZ, to investigate the variability of regional seasonal precipitation and sustained regional droughts. In a principal component (PC) analysis of the speleothem, trace elements associated with wet (Sr, Ba) and dry (P, Y, Zn) episodes load strongly and inversely, and the associated PC signals correlate with local gridded precipitation data over the last 50 years (R > 0.6, p external forcings, including volcanic eruptions, in both the speleothem record and the Community Earth System Model's Last Millennium Ensemble (CESM-LME). Notably, ENSO and volcanic forcing have a discernable effect on SW seasonal precipitation in model simulations, particularly when the two processes combine to shift the position of the ITCZ. This integrated analysis of paleodata with climate model results will help us identify and explain discrepancies between these information sources and improve stakeholders' ability to anticipate and prepare for future drought.

  5. Modeling mental health information preferences during the early adult years: a discrete choice conjoint experiment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cunningham, Charles E; Walker, John R; Eastwood, John D; Westra, Henny; Rimas, Heather; Chen, Yvonne; Marcus, Madalyn; Swinson, Richard P; Bracken, Keyna; The Mobilizing Minds Research Group

    2014-04-01

    Although most young adults with mood and anxiety disorders do not seek treatment, those who are better informed about mental health problems are more likely to use services. The authors used conjoint analysis to model strategies for providing information about anxiety and depression to young adults. Participants (N = 1,035) completed 17 choice tasks presenting combinations of 15 four-level attributes of a mental health information strategy. Latent class analysis yielded 3 segments. The virtual segment (28.7%) preferred working independently on the Internet to obtain information recommended by young adults who had experienced anxiety or depression. Self-assessment options and links to service providers were more important to this segment. Conventional participants (30.1%) preferred books or pamphlets recommended by a doctor, endorsed by mental health professionals, and used with a doctor's support. They would devote more time to information acquisition but were less likely to use Internet social networking options. Brief sources of information were more important to the low interest segment (41.2%). All segments preferred information about alternative ways to reduce anxiety or depression rather than psychological approaches or medication. Maximizing the use of information requires active and passive approaches delivered through old-media (e.g., books) and new-media (e.g., Internet) channels.

  6. Observations and modeling of fjord sedimentation during the 30 year retreat of Columbia Glacier, AK

    Science.gov (United States)

    Love, Katherine B; Hallet, Bernard; Pratt, Thomas L.; O'Neel, Shad

    2016-01-01

    To explore links between glacier dynamics, sediment yields and the accumulation of glacial sediments in a temperate setting, we use extensive glaciological observations for Columbia Glacier, Alaska, and new oceanographic data from the fjord exposed during its retreat. High-resolution seismic data indicate that 3.2 × 108 m3 of sediment has accumulated in Columbia Fjord over the past three decades, which corresponds to ~5 mm a−1 of erosion averaged over the glaciated area. We develop a general model to infer the sediment-flux history from the glacier that is compatible with the observed retreat history, and the thickness and architecture of the fjord sediment deposits. Results reveal a fivefold increase in sediment flux from 1997 to 2000, which is not correlated with concurrent changes in ice flux or retreat rate. We suggest the flux increase resulted from an increase in the sediment transport capacity of the subglacial hydraulic system due to the retreat-related steepening of the glacier surface over a known subglacial deep basin. Because variations in subglacial sediment storage can impact glacial sediment flux, in addition to changes in climate, erosion rate and glacier dynamics, the interpretation of climatic changes based on the sediment record is more complex than generally assumed.

  7. Building information modelling (BIM) after ten years: Malaysian construction players’ perception of BIM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Latiffi, A. Ahmad; Brahim, J.; Fathi, M. S.

    2017-08-01

    Building Information Modelling (BIM) concept has expanded widely in many countries for more than a decade with its role of improving current practices in construction projects. However, the understanding of BIM differs among construction players, depending on how construction players utilize the concept in their projects. Therefore, this paper aims to explore the understanding of BIM concept among construction players in the Malaysian construction industry. A literature review on BIM concept and semi-structured interviews with construction players in BIM such as client, civil and structural (C&S) engineer and mechanical and electrical (M&E) engineer, quantity surveyor (QS), contractor, facilities manager and BIM consultant have been conducted in order to achieve this study’s the aim. The results show that the understanding of BIM concept among the construction players is limited to BIM as a process and technology. It is important for the construction players to improve their understanding of BIM as it can be used to enhance performance and productivity of construction projects.

  8. Advanced Test Reactor Core Modeling Update Project Annual Report for Fiscal Year 2013

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nigg, David W. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2013-09-01

    Legacy computational reactor physics software tools and protocols currently used for support of Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) core fuel management and safety assurance, and to some extent, experiment management, are inconsistent with the state of modern nuclear engineering practice, and are difficult, if not impossible, to verify and validate (V&V) according to modern standards. Furthermore, the legacy staff knowledge required for effective application of these tools and protocols from the 1960s and 1970s is rapidly being lost due to staff turnover and retirements. In late 2009, the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) initiated a focused effort, the ATR Core Modeling Update Project, to address this situation through the introduction of modern high-fidelity computational software and protocols. This aggressive computational and experimental campaign will have a broad strategic impact on the operation of the ATR, both in terms of improved computational efficiency and accuracy for support of ongoing DOE programs as well as in terms of national and international recognition of the ATR National Scientific User Facility (NSUF).

  9. The trilayer approach of teaching physiology, pathophysiology, and pharmacology concepts in a first-year pharmacy course: the TLAT model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Islam, Mohammed A; Sabnis, Gauri; Farris, Fred

    2017-09-01

    This paper describes the development, implementation, and students' perceptions of a new trilayer approach of teaching (TLAT). The TLAT model involved blending lecture, in-class group activities, and out-of-class assignments on selected content areas and was implemented initially in a first-year integrated pharmacy course. Course contents were either delivered by traditional lectures or by the TLAT. A survey instrument was distributed by SurveyMonkey to determine students' perceptions of the TLAT model. Descriptive statistics were used for data analysis. Students' performance in a total of 225 examination and quiz questions was analyzed to evaluate whether the TLAT model improved students' learning. Students' ( n = 98) performance scores for TLAT-based and lecture-based questions were 83.3 ± 10.2 and 79.5 ± 14.0, respectively ( P Physiological Society.

  10. Integrating critical thinking and evidence-based dentistry across a four-year dental curriculum: a model for independent learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marshall, Teresa A; Straub-Morarend, Cheryl L; Handoo, Nidhi; Solow, Catherine M; Cunningham-Ford, Marsha A; Finkelstein, Michael W

    2014-03-01

    Introducing critical thinking and evidence-based dentistry (EBD) content into an established dental curriculum can be a difficult and challenging process. Over the past three years, the University of Iowa College of Dentistry has developed and implemented a progressive four-year integrated critical thinking and EBD curriculum. The objective of this article is to describe the development and implementation process to make it available as a model for other dental schools contemplating introduction of critical thinking and EBD into their curricula. The newly designed curriculum built upon an existing problem-based learning foundation, which introduces critical thinking and the scientific literature in the D1 year, in order to expose students to the rationale and resources for practicing EBD in the D2 and D3 years and provide opportunities to practice critical thinking and apply the EBD five-step process in the D2, D3, and D4 years. All curricular content is online, and D3 and D4 EBD activities are integrated within existing clinical responsibilities. The curricular content, student resources, and student activities are described.

  11. Modeling Early Postnatal Brain Growth and Development with CT: Changes in the Brain Radiodensity Histogram from Birth to 2 Years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cauley, K A; Hu, Y; Och, J; Yorks, P J; Fielden, S W

    2018-04-01

    The majority of brain growth and development occur in the first 2 years of life. This study investigated these changes by analysis of the brain radiodensity histogram of head CT scans from the clinical population, 0-2 years of age. One hundred twenty consecutive head CTs with normal findings meeting the inclusion criteria from children from birth to 2 years were retrospectively identified from 3 different CT scan platforms. Histogram analysis was performed on brain-extracted images, and histogram mean, mode, full width at half maximum, skewness, kurtosis, and SD were correlated with subject age. The effects of scan platform were investigated. Normative curves were fitted by polynomial regression analysis. Average total brain volume was 360 cm 3 at birth, 948 cm 3 at 1 year, and 1072 cm 3 at 2 years. Total brain tissue density showed an 11% increase in mean density at 1 year and 19% at 2 years. Brain radiodensity histogram skewness was positive at birth, declining logarithmically in the first 200 days of life. The histogram kurtosis also decreased in the first 200 days to approach a normal distribution. Direct segmentation of CT images showed that changes in brain radiodensity histogram skewness correlated with, and can be explained by, a relative increase in gray matter volume and an increase in gray and white matter tissue density that occurs during this period of brain maturation. Normative metrics of the brain radiodensity histogram derived from routine clinical head CT images can be used to develop a model of normal brain development. © 2018 by American Journal of Neuroradiology.

  12. The Swarm Initial Field Model – a Model of the Earth’s Magnetic Field for 2014 Determined From One Year of Swarm Satellite Constellation Data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Nils; Hulot, Gauthier; Lesur, Vincent

    Almost one year of data from ESA's Swarm constellation mission are used to derive a model of the Earth’s magnetic field and its time variation (secular variation). The model describes contributions from the core and lithosphere as well as large-scale contributions from the magnetosphere (and its...... Earth-induced counterpart). We use data from geomagnetic quiet times (Kp less than 2o, time change of Dst-index less than 2 nT/hr) and dark regions (sun below horizon) and co-estimate the Euler angles describing the rotation between the vector magnetometer instrument frame and the North-East-Center (NEC...

  13. Examining a conceptual model of parental nurturance, parenting practices and physical activity among 5-6 year olds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sebire, Simon J; Jago, Russell; Wood, Lesley; Thompson, Janice L; Zahra, Jezmond; Lawlor, Deborah A

    2016-01-01

    Parenting is an often-studied correlate of children's physical activity, however there is little research examining the associations between parenting styles, practices and the physical activity of younger children. This study aimed to investigate whether physical activity-based parenting practices mediate the association between parenting styles and 5-6 year-old children's objectively-assessed physical activity. 770 parents self-reported parenting style (nurturance and control) and physical activity-based parenting practices (logistic and modeling support). Their 5-6 year old child wore an accelerometer for five days to measure moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA). Linear regression was used to examine direct and indirect (mediation) associations. Data were collected in the United Kingdom in 2012/13 and analyzed in 2014. Parent nurturance was positively associated with provision of modeling (adjusted unstandardized coefficient, β = 0.11; 95% CI = 0.02, 0.21) and logistic support (β = 0.14; 0.07, 0.21). Modeling support was associated with greater child MVPA (β = 2.41; 0.23, 4.60) and a small indirect path from parent nurturance to child's MVPA was identified (β = 0.27; 0.04, 0.70). Physical activity-based parenting practices are more strongly associated with 5-6 year old children's MVPA than parenting styles. Further research examining conceptual models of parenting is needed to understand in more depth the possible antecedents to adaptive parenting practices beyond parenting styles. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  14. Examining a conceptual model of parental nurturance, parenting practices and physical activity among 5–6 year olds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sebire, Simon J.; Jago, Russell; Wood, Lesley; Thompson, Janice L.; Zahra, Jezmond; Lawlor, Deborah A.

    2016-01-01

    Rationale Parenting is an often-studied correlate of children's physical activity, however there is little research examining the associations between parenting styles, practices and the physical activity of younger children. Objective This study aimed to investigate whether physical activity-based parenting practices mediate the association between parenting styles and 5–6 year-old children's objectively-assessed physical activity. Methods 770 parents self-reported parenting style (nurturance and control) and physical activity-based parenting practices (logistic and modeling support). Their 5–6 year old child wore an accelerometer for five days to measure moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA). Linear regression was used to examine direct and indirect (mediation) associations. Data were collected in the United Kingdom in 2012/13 and analyzed in 2014. Results Parent nurturance was positively associated with provision of modeling (adjusted unstandardized coefficient, β = 0.11; 95% CI = 0.02, 0.21) and logistic support (β = 0.14; 0.07, 0.21). Modeling support was associated with greater child MVPA (β = 2.41; 0.23, 4.60) and a small indirect path from parent nurturance to child's MVPA was identified (β = 0.27; 0.04, 0.70). Conclusions Physical activity-based parenting practices are more strongly associated with 5–6 year old children's MVPA than parenting styles. Further research examining conceptual models of parenting is needed to understand in more depth the possible antecedents to adaptive parenting practices beyond parenting styles. PMID:26647364

  15. Intranasal Deposition of Accuspray™ Aerosol in Anatomically Correct Models of 2-, 5-, and 12-Year-Old Children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laube, Beth L; Sharpless, Gail; Vikani, Ami R; Harrand, Vincent; Zinreich, Simeon J; Sedberry, Keith; Knaus, Darin; Barry, James; Papania, Mark

    2015-10-01

    To our knowledge, quantification of intranasal deposition of aerosol generated by Accuspray(™) (AS) in children has never been published. We hypothesized that deposition would vary significantly with age and with placement of the device within, or outside, of the nostril. We tested these hypotheses in anatomically-correct physical models based on CT scans of 2-, 5-, and 12-year-old children with normal, intranasal airways. Models included a removable anterior nose (AN) with exterior facial features and interior nasal vestibule and nasal valve area and a main nasal airway (MNA), subdivided into upper (superior turbinates and olfactory area), middle (middle turbinates), and lower (inferior turbinates and nasopharynx) thirds. Aerosol was generated from distilled water admixed with (99m)technetium pertechnetate and administered during static airflow by AS inserted inside the right nostril (eight runs/model), or outside the right nostril (six runs/model). Mean aerosol Dv(50) ± standard deviation was 67.8 ± 24.7 μm. Deposition was quantified by 2D gamma scintigraphy and expressed as percentage of the emitted dose. When placed inside the nostril, mean (± standard deviation) deposition within the MNA was significantly less in the 2-year-old, compared to the 5- and 12-year-old, averaging 46.8 ± 33.8% (AN:55.4 ± 29.9%), 75.4 ± 26.7% (AN:23.3 ± 13.6%), and 72.1 ± 18.5% (AN:25.8 ± 18.5%), respectively (pchildren.

  16. Bridging the gap between textbook and maternity patient: a nurse-developed teaching model for first-year medical students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooksey, Nancy Rumsey

    2010-12-01

    Providing more opportunities for first-year medical students to interact with patients in clinical settings is a current discussion topic in medical student education reform. Early clinical experience helps students bridge the gap between textbook and patient while observing patient-centered care, and serves as a first step for students to develop the skills needed to work cooperatively as members of a multidisciplinary health care team. The author developed a model to provide perinatal education to first-year medical students, consistent with the concept of interprofessional education. Primarily first-year medical students participated in the nurse-developed education model, a component of a noncredit extracurricular, student-run perinatal program at a Midwestern university medical center. Students were placed at the bedsides of hospitalized women to provide support and education to them during perinatal procedures, labor, childbirth, and cesarean delivery. A total of 350 students participated over a period of 13 school calendar years. Students remarked that participation in the program reinforced the importance of their concurrent anatomy and physiology classes. They observed interdependence and cooperation among the members of the health care team caring for women, and their evaluations of their experiences at the bedside were highly positive. Women consistently expressed appreciation for the additional individualized attention and education received from our student and nurse team. Nurses can enhance the learning of first-year medical students in the maternity care clinical setting. This nurse-developed education program provided students with a variety of vivid clinical experiences with maternity patients. © 2010, Copyright the Author. Journal compilation © 2010, Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  17. Air pollution modeling over very complex terrain: An evaluation of WRF-Chem over Switzerland for two 1-year periods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ritter, Mathias; Müller, Mathias D.; Tsai, Ming-Yi; Parlow, Eberhard

    2013-10-01

    The fully coupled chemistry module (WRF-Chem) within the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model has been implemented over a Swiss domain for the years 2002 and 1991. The very complex terrain requires a high horizontal resolution (2 × 2 km2), which is achieved by nesting the Swiss domain into a coarser European one. The temporal and spatial distribution of O3, NO2 and PM10 as well as temperature and solar radiation are evaluated against ground-based measurements. The model performs well for the meteorological parameters with Pearson correlation coefficients of 0.92 for temperature and 0.88-0.89 for solar radiation. Temperature has root mean square errors (RMSE) of 3.30 K and 3.51 K for 2002 and 1991 and solar radiation has RMSEs of 122.92 and 116.35 for 2002 and 1991, respectively. For the modeled air pollutants, a multi-linear regression post-processing was used to eliminate systematic bias. Seasonal variations of post-processed air pollutants are represented correctly. However, short-term peaks of several days are not captured by the model. Averaged daily maximum and daily values of O3 achieved Pearson correlation coefficients of 0.69-0.77 whereas averaged NO2 and PM10 had the highest correlations for yearly average values (0.68-0.78). The spatial distribution reveals the importance of PM10 advection from the Po valley to southern Switzerland (Ticino). The absolute errors are ranging from - 10 to 15 μg/m3 for ozone, - 9 to 3 μg/m3 for NO2 and - 4 to 3 μg/m3 for PM10. However, larger errors occur along heavily trafficked roads, in street canyons or on mountains. We also compare yearly modeled results against a dedicated Swiss dispersion model for NO2 and PM10. The dedicated dispersion model has a slightly better statistical performance, but WRF-Chem is capable of computing the temporal evolution of three-dimensional data for a variety of air pollutants and meteorological parameters. Overall, WRF-Chem with the application of post-processing algorithms can

  18. Empirical model for estimating dengue incidence using temperature, rainfall, and relative humidity: a 19-year retrospective analysis in East Delhi.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramachandran, Vishnampettai G; Roy, Priyamvada; Das, Shukla; Mogha, Narendra Singh; Bansal, Ajay Kumar

    2016-01-01

    Aedes mosquitoes are responsible for transmitting the dengue virus. The mosquito lifecycle is known to be influenced by temperature, rainfall, and relative humidity. This retrospective study was planned to investigate whether climatic factors could be used to predict the occurrence of dengue in East Delhi. The number of monthly dengue cases reported over 19 years was obtained from the laboratory records of our institution. Monthly data of rainfall, temperature, and humidity collected from a local weather station were correlated with the number of monthly reported dengue cases. One-way analysis of variance was used to analyse whether the climatic parameters differed significantly among seasons. Four models were developed using negative binomial generalized linear model analysis. Monthly rainfall, temperature, humidity, were used as independent variables, and the number of dengue cases reported monthly was used as the dependent variable. The first model considered data from the same month, while the other three models involved incorporating data with a lag phase of 1, 2, and 3 months, respectively. The greatest number of cases was reported during the post-monsoon period each year. Temperature, rainfall, and humidity varied significantly across the pre-monsoon, monsoon, and post-monsoon periods. The best correlation between these three climatic factors and dengue occurrence was at a time lag of 2 months. This study found that temperature, rainfall, and relative humidity significantly affected dengue occurrence in East Delhi. This weather-based dengue empirical model can forecast potential outbreaks 2-month in advance, providing an early warning system for intensifying dengue control measures.

  19. Vertical distribution of Saharan dust over Rome (Italy): Comparison between 3-year model predictions and lidar soundings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kishcha, P.; Barnaba, F.; Gobbi, G. P.; Alpert, P.; Shtivelman, A.; Krichak, S. O.; Joseph, J. H.

    2005-03-01

    Mineral dust particles loaded into the atmosphere from the Sahara desert represent one major factor affecting the Earth's radiative budget. Regular model-based forecasts of 3-D dust fields can be used in order to determine the dust radiative effect in climate models, in spite of the large gaps in observations of dust vertical profiles. In this study, dust forecasts by the Tel Aviv University (TAU) dust prediction system were compared to lidar observations to better evaluate the model's capabilities. The TAU dust model was initially developed at the University of Athens and later modified at Tel Aviv University. Dust forecasts are initialized with the aid of the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer aerosol index (TOMS AI) measurements. The lidar soundings employed were collected at the outskirts of Rome, Italy (41.84°N, 12.64°E) during the high-dust activity season from March to June of the years 2001, 2002, and 2003. The lidar vertical profiles collected in the presence of dust were used for obtaining statistically significant reference parameters of dust layers over Rome and for model versus lidar comparison. The Barnaba and Gobbi (2001) approach was used in the current study to derive height-resolved dust volumes from lidar measurements of backscatter. Close inspection of the juxtaposed vertical profiles, obtained from lidar and model data near Rome, indicates that the majority (67%) of the cases under investigation can be classified as good or acceptable forecasts of the dust vertical distribution. A more quantitative comparison shows that the model predictions are mainly accurate in the middle part of dust layers. This is supported by high correlation (0.85) between lidar and model data for forecast dust volumes greater than the threshold of 1 × 10-12 cm3/cm3. In general, however, the model tends to underestimate the lidar-derived dust volume profiles. The effect of clouds in the TOMS detection of AI is supposed to be the main factor responsible for this effect

  20. Depression among Parents Two to Six Years Following the Loss of a Child by Suicide: A Novel Prediction Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nyberg, Tommy; Hed Myrberg, Ida; Omerov, Pernilla; Steineck, Gunnar; Nyberg, Ullakarin

    2016-01-01

    Parents who lose a child by suicide have elevated risks of depression. No clinical prediction tools exist to identify which suicide-bereaved parents will be particularly vulnerable; we aimed to create a prediction model for long-term depression for this purpose. During 2009 and 2010 we collected data using a nationwide study-specific questionnaire among parents in Sweden who had lost a child aged 15-30 by suicide in years 2004-2007. Current depression was assessed with the Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9) and a single question on antidepressant use. We considered 26 potential predictors assumed clinically assessable at the time of loss, including socio-economics, relationship status, history of psychological stress and morbidity, and suicide-related circumstances. We developed a novel prediction model using logistic regression with all subsets selection and stratified cross-validation. The model was assessed for classification performance and calibration, overall and stratified by time since loss. In total 666/915 (73%) participated. The model showed acceptable classification performance (adjusted area under the curve [AUC] = 0.720, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.673-0.766), but performed classification best for those at shortest time since loss. Agreement between model-predicted and observed risks was fair, but with a tendency for underestimation and overestimation for individuals with shortest and longest time since loss, respectively. The identified predictors include female sex (odds ratio [OR] = 1.84); sick-leave (OR = 2.81) or unemployment (OR = 1.64); psychological premorbidity debuting during the last 10 years, before loss (OR = 3.64), or more than 10 years ago (OR = 4.96); suicide in biological relatives (OR = 1.54); with non-legal guardianship during the child's upbringing (OR = 0.48); and non-biological parenthood (OR = 0.22) found as protective. Our prediction model shows promising internal validity, but should be externally validated before

  1. Aggression, Sibling Antagonism, and Theory-of-Mind During the First Year of Siblinghood: A Developmental Cascade Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Ju-Hyun; Volling, Brenda L.; Lane, Jonathan D.; Wellman, Henry M.

    2016-01-01

    A developmental cascade model was tested to examine longitudinal associations among firstborn children’s aggression, Theory-of-Mind, and antagonism toward their younger sibling during the first year of siblinghood. Aggression and Theory-of-Mind were assessed before the birth of a sibling, and 4 and 12 months after the birth, and antagonism was examined at 4 and 12 months in a sample of 208 firstborn children (initial M age = 30 months, 56% girls) from primarily European American, middle- class families. Firstborns’ aggression consistently predicted high sibling antagonism both directly and through poorer Theory-of-Mind. Results highlight the importance of examining longitudinal influences across behavioral, social-cognitive, and relational factors that are closely intertwined even from the early years of life. PMID:27096923

  2. Repeatability of stance phase kinematics from a multi-segment foot model in people aged 50 years and older.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnold, John B; Mackintosh, Shylie; Jones, Sara; Thewlis, Dominic

    2013-06-01

    Confidence in 3D multi-segment foot models has been limited by a lack of repeatability data, particularly in older populations that may display unique functional foot characteristics. This study aimed to determine the intra and inter-observer repeatability of stance phase kinematic data from a multi-segment foot model described by Leardini et al. [2] in people aged 50 years or older. Twenty healthy adults participated (mean age 65.4 years SD 8.4). A repeated measures study design was used with data collected from four testing sessions on two days from two observers. Intra (within-day and between-day) and inter-observer coefficient of multiple correlations revealed moderate to excellent similarity of stance phase joint range of motion (0.621-0.975). Relative to the joint range of motion (ROM), mean differences (MD) between sessions were highest for the within-day comparison for all planar ROM at the metatarsus-midfoot articulation (sagittal plane ROM 5.2° vs. 3.9°, MD 3.1°; coronal plane ROM 3.9 vs. 3.1°, MD 2.3°; transverse plane ROM 6.8° vs. 5.16°, MD 3.5°). Consequently, data from the metatarsus-midfoot articulation in the Istituto Ortopedico Rizzoli (IOR) foot model in adults aged over 50 years needs to be considered with respect to the findings of this study. Crown Copyright © 2012. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Multi-year analysis of distributed glacier mass balance modelling and equilibrium line altitude on King George Island, Antarctic Peninsula

    Science.gov (United States)

    Falk, Ulrike; López, Damián A.; Silva-Busso, Adrián

    2018-04-01

    The South Shetland Islands are located at the northern tip of the Antarctic Peninsula (AP). This region was subject to strong warming trends in the atmospheric surface layer. Surface air temperature increased about 3 K in 50 years, concurrent with retreating glacier fronts, an increase in melt areas, ice surface lowering and rapid break-up and disintegration of ice shelves. The positive trend in surface air temperature has currently come to a halt. Observed surface air temperature lapse rates show a high variability during winter months (standard deviations up to ±1.0 K (100 m)-1) and a distinct spatial heterogeneity reflecting the impact of synoptic weather patterns. The increased mesocyclonic activity during the wintertime over the past decades in the study area results in intensified advection of warm, moist air with high temperatures and rain and leads to melt conditions on the ice cap, fixating surface air temperatures to the melting point. Its impact on winter accumulation results in the observed negative mass balance estimates. Six years of continuous glaciological measurements on mass balance stake transects as well as 5 years of climatological data time series are presented and a spatially distributed glacier energy balance melt model adapted and run based on these multi-year data sets. The glaciological surface mass balance model is generally in good agreement with observations, except for atmospheric conditions promoting snow drift by high wind speeds, turbulence-driven snow deposition and snow layer erosion by rain. No drift in the difference between simulated mass balance and mass balance measurements can be seen over the course of the 5-year model run period. The winter accumulation does not suffice to compensate for the high variability in summer ablation. The results are analysed to assess changes in meltwater input to the coastal waters, specific glacier mass balance and the equilibrium line altitude (ELA). The Fourcade Glacier catchment drains

  4. The cost-effectiveness of influenza vaccination for people aged 50 to 64 years: an international model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aballéa, Samuel; Chancellor, Jeremy; Martin, Monique; Wutzler, Peter; Carrat, Fabrice; Gasparini, Roberto; Toniolo-Neto, Joao; Drummond, Michael; Weinstein, Milton

    2007-01-01

    Routine influenza vaccination is currently recommended in several countries for people aged more than 60 or 65 years or with high risk of complications. A lower age threshold of 50 years has been recommended in the United States since 1999. To help policymakers consider whether such a policy should be adopted more widely, we conducted an economic evaluation of lowering the age limit for routine influenza vaccination to 50 years in Brazil, France, Germany, and Italy. The probabilistic model was designed to compare in a single season the costs and clinical outcomes associated with two alternative vaccination policies for persons aged 50 to 64 years: reimbursement only for people at high risk of complications (current policy), and reimbursement for all individuals in this age group (proposed policy). Two perspectives were considered: third-party payer (TPP) and societal. Model inputs were obtained primarily from the published literature and validated through expert opinion. The historical distribution of annual influenza-like illness (ILI) incidence was used to simulate the uncertain incidence in any given season. We estimated gains in unadjusted and quality-adjusted life expectancy, and the cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted. Comparing the proposed to the current policy, the estimated mean costs per QALY gained were R$4,100, EURO 13,200, EURO 31,400 and EURO 15,700 for Brazil, France, Germany, and Italy, respectively, from a TPP perspective. From the societal perspective, the age-based policy is predicted to yield net cost savings in Germany and Italy, whereas the cost per QALY decreased to R$2800 for Brazil and EURO 8000 for France. The results were particularly sensitive to the ILI incidence rate, vaccine uptake, influenza fatality rate, and the costs of administering vaccination. Assuming a cost-effectiveness threshold ratio of EURO 50,000 per QALY gained, the probabilities of the

  5. A full year evaluation of the CALIOPE-EU air quality modeling system over Europe for 2004

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pay, M. T.; Piot, M.; Jorba, O.; Gassó, S.; Gonçalves, M.; Basart, S.; Dabdub, D.; Jiménez-Guerrero, P.; Baldasano, J. M.

    The CALIOPE-EU high-resolution air quality modeling system, namely WRF-ARW/HERMES-EMEP/CMAQ/BSC-DREAM8b, is developed and applied to Europe (12 km × 12 km, 1 h). The model performances are tested in terms of air quality levels and dynamics reproducibility on a yearly basis. The present work describes a quantitative evaluation of gas phase species (O 3, NO 2 and SO 2) and particulate matter (PM2.5 and PM10) against ground-based measurements from the EMEP (European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme) network for the year 2004. The evaluation is based on statistics. Simulated O 3 achieves satisfactory performances for both daily mean and daily maximum concentrations, especially in summer, with annual mean correlations of 0.66 and 0.69, respectively. Mean normalized errors are comprised within the recommendations proposed by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (US-EPA). The general trends and daily variations of primary pollutants (NO 2 and SO 2) are satisfactory. Daily mean concentrations of NO 2 correlate well with observations (annual correlation r = 0.67) but tend to be underestimated. For SO 2, mean concentrations are well simulated (mean bias = 0.5 μg m -3) with relatively high annual mean correlation ( r = 0.60), although peaks are generally overestimated. The dynamics of PM2.5 and PM10 is well reproduced (0.49 Deficiencies in particulate matter source characterization are discussed. Also, the spatially distributed statistics and the general patterns for each pollutant over Europe are examined. The model performances are compared with other European studies. While O 3 statistics generally remain lower than those obtained by the other considered studies, statistics for NO 2, SO 2, PM2.5 and PM10 present higher scores than most models.

  6. Radiocarbon ages and age models for the past 30,000 years in Bear Lake, Utah and Idaho

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colman, Steven M.; Rosenbaum, J.G.; Kaufman, D.S.; Dean, W.E.; McGeehin, J.P.

    2009-01-01

    Radiocarbon analyses of pollen, ostracodes, and total organic carbon (TOC) provide a reliable chronology for the sediments deposited in Bear Lake over the past 30,000 years. The differences in apparent age between TOC, pollen, and carbonate fractions are consistent and in accord with the origins of these fractions. Comparisons among different fractions indicate that pollen sample ages are the most reliable, at least for the past 15,000 years. The post-glacial radiocarbon data also agree with ages independently estimated from aspartic acid racemization in ostracodes. Ages in the red, siliclastic unit, inferred to be of last glacial age, appear to be several thousand years too old, probably because of a high proportion of reworked, refractory organic carbon in the pollen samples. Age-depth models for five piston cores and the Bear Lake drill core (BL00-1) were constructed by using two methods: quadratic equations and smooth cubic-splinefits. The two types of age models differ only in detail for individual cores, and each approach has its own advantages. Specific lithological horizons were dated in several cores and correlated among them, producing robust average ages for these horizons. The age of the correlated horizons in the red, siliclastic unit can be estimated from the age model for BL00-1, which is controlled by ages above and below the red, siliclastic unit. These ages were then transferred to the correlative horizons in the shorter piston cores, providing control for the sections of the age models in those cores in the red, siliclastic unit. These age models are the backbone for reconstructions of past environmental conditions in Bear Lake. In general, sedimentation rates in Bear Lake have been quite uniform, mostly between 0.3 and 0.8 mm yr-1 in the Holocene, and close to 0.5 mm yr-1 for the longer sedimentary record in the drill core from the deepest part of the lake. Copyright ?? 2009 The Geological Society of America.

  7. Modeled changes in 100 year Flood Risk and Asset Damages within Mapped Floodplains of the Contiguous United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wobus, C. W.; Gutmann, E. D.; Jones, R.; Rissing, M.; Mizukami, N.; Lorie, M.; Mahoney, H.; Wood, A.; Mills, D.; Martinich, J.

    2017-12-01

    A growing body of recent work suggests that the extreme weather events that drive inland flooding are likely to increase in frequency and magnitude in a warming climate, thus increasing monetary damages from flooding in the future. We use hydrologic projections based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to estimate changes in the frequency of modeled 1% annual exceedance probability flood events at 57,116 locations across the contiguous United States (CONUS). We link these flood projections to a database of assets within mapped flood hazard zones to model changes in inland flooding damages throughout the CONUS over the remainder of the 21st century, under two greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios. Our model generates early 21st century flood damages that reasonably approximate the range of historical observations, and trajectories of future damages that vary substantially depending on the GHG emissions pathway. The difference in modeled flood damages between higher and lower emissions pathways approaches $4 billion per year by 2100 (in undiscounted 2014 dollars), suggesting that aggressive GHG emissions reductions could generate significant monetary benefits over the long-term in terms of reduced flood risk. Although the downscaled hydrologic data we used have been applied to flood impacts studies elsewhere, this research expands on earlier work to quantify changes in flood risk by linking future flood exposure to assets and damages at a national scale. Our approach relies on a series of simplifications that could ultimately affect damage estimates (e.g., use of statistical downscaling, reliance on a nationwide hydrologic model, and linking damage estimates only to 1% AEP floods). Although future work is needed to test the sensitivity of our results to these methodological choices, our results suggest that monetary damages from inland flooding could be substantially reduced through more aggressive GHG mitigation policies.

  8. Geostatistical Model-Based Estimates of Schistosomiasis Prevalence among Individuals Aged ≤20 Years in West Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schur, Nadine; Hürlimann, Eveline; Garba, Amadou; Traoré, Mamadou S.; Ndir, Omar; Ratard, Raoult C.; Tchuem Tchuenté, Louis-Albert; Kristensen, Thomas K.; Utzinger, Jürg; Vounatsou, Penelope

    2011-01-01

    Background Schistosomiasis is a water-based disease that is believed to affect over 200 million people with an estimated 97% of the infections concentrated in Africa. However, these statistics are largely based on population re-adjusted data originally published by Utroska and colleagues more than 20 years ago. Hence, these estimates are outdated due to large-scale preventive chemotherapy programs, improved sanitation, water resources development and management, among other reasons. For planning, coordination, and evaluation of control activities, it is essential to possess reliable schistosomiasis prevalence maps. Methodology We analyzed survey data compiled on a newly established open-access global neglected tropical diseases database (i) to create smooth empirical prevalence maps for Schistosoma mansoni and S. haematobium for individuals aged ≤20 years in West Africa, including Cameroon, and (ii) to derive country-specific prevalence estimates. We used Bayesian geostatistical models based on environmental predictors to take into account potential clustering due to common spatially structured exposures. Prediction at unobserved locations was facilitated by joint kriging. Principal Findings Our models revealed that 50.8 million individuals aged ≤20 years in West Africa are infected with either S. mansoni, or S. haematobium, or both species concurrently. The country prevalence estimates ranged between 0.5% (The Gambia) and 37.1% (Liberia) for S. mansoni, and between 17.6% (The Gambia) and 51.6% (Sierra Leone) for S. haematobium. We observed that the combined prevalence for both schistosome species is two-fold lower in Gambia than previously reported, while we found an almost two-fold higher estimate for Liberia (58.3%) than reported before (30.0%). Our predictions are likely to overestimate overall country prevalence, since modeling was based on children and adolescents up to the age of 20 years who are at highest risk of infection. Conclusion/Significance We

  9. Multi-year assessment of soil-vegetation-atmosphere transfer (SVAT) modeling uncertainties over a Mediterranean agricultural site

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garrigues, S.; Olioso, A.; Calvet, J.-C.; Lafont, S.; Martin, E.; Chanzy, A.; Marloie, O.; Bertrand, N.; Desfonds, V.; Renard, D.

    2012-04-01

    Vegetation productivity and water balance of Mediterranean regions will be particularly affected by climate and land-use changes. In order to analyze and predict these changes through land surface models, a critical step is to quantify the uncertainties associated with these models (processes, parameters) and their implementation over a long period of time. Besides, uncertainties attached to the data used to force these models (atmospheric forcing, vegetation and soil characteristics, crop management practices...) which are generally available at coarse spatial resolution (>1-10 km) and for a limited number of plant functional types, need to be evaluated. This paper aims at assessing the uncertainties in water (evapotranspiration) and energy fluxes estimated from a Soil Vegetation Atmosphere Transfer (SVAT) model over a Mediterranean agricultural site. While similar past studies focused on particular crop types and limited period of time, the originality of this paper consists in implementing the SVAT model and assessing its uncertainties over a long period of time (10 years), encompassing several cycles of distinct crops (wheat, sorghum, sunflower, peas). The impacts on the SVAT simulations of the following sources of uncertainties are characterized: - Uncertainties in atmospheric forcing are assessed comparing simulations forced with local meteorological measurements and simulations forced with re-analysis atmospheric dataset (SAFRAN database). - Uncertainties in key surface characteristics (soil, vegetation, crop management practises) are tested comparing simulations feeded with standard values from global database (e.g. ECOCLIMAP) and simulations based on in situ or site-calibrated values. - Uncertainties dues to the implementation of the SVAT model over a long period of time are analyzed with regards to crop rotation. The SVAT model being analyzed in this paper is ISBA in its a-gs version which simulates the photosynthesis and its coupling with the stomata

  10. Identifying the Optimal Offshore Areas for Wave Energy Converter Deployments in Taiwanese Waters Based on 12-Year Model Hindcasts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hung-Ju Shih

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available A 12-year sea-state hindcast for Taiwanese waters, covering the period from 2005 to 2016, was conducted using a fully coupled tide-surge-wave model. The hindcasts of significant wave height and peak period were employed to estimate the wave power resources in the waters surrounding Taiwan. Numerical simulations based on unstructured grids were converted to structured grids with a resolution of 25 × 25 km. The spatial distribution maps of offshore annual mean wave power were created for each year and for the 12-year period. Waters with higher wave power density were observed off the northern, northeastern, southeastern (south of Green Island and southeast of Lanyu and southern coasts of Taiwan. Five energetic sea areas with spatial average annual total wave energy density of 60–90 MWh/m were selected for further analysis. The 25 × 25 km square grids were then downscaled to resolutions of 5 × 5 km, and five 5 × 5 km optimal areas were identified for wave energy converter deployments. The spatial average annual total wave energy yields at the five optimal areas (S1–(S5 were estimated to be 64.3, 84.1, 84.5, 111.0 and 99.3 MWh/m, respectively. The prevailing wave directions for these five areas lie between east and northeast.

  11. Forecasting forest development through modeling based on the legacy of forest structure over the past 43 years

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E.Z. Baskent

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Aim of study: Sustainable management of forest ecosystems requires comprehensive coverage of data to reflect both the historical legacy and the future development of forests.  This study focuses on analyzing the spatio-temporal dynamics of forests over the past 43 years to help better forecast the future development of forest under various management strategies.Area of study: The area is situated in Karaisalı district of Adana city in the southeastern corner of Turkey.Material and methods: The historical pattern from 1969 to 2012 was assessed with digital forest cover type maps, produced with high resolution aerial photo interpretation using Geographic Information Systems (GIS. The forest development over the next 120 years was forecasted using ecosystem-based multiple use forest management model (ETÇAP to understand the cause-effect relationships under various management strategies.Main results: The result showed that over the past 43 years while total forest areas decreased about 1194 ha (4%, the productive forest areas increased about 5397 ha (18% with a decrease of degraded forest (5824 ha, 20% and increase of maquis areas (2212 ha, 7%.The forecast of forest development under traditional management strategy resulted in an unsustainable forest due to broken initial age class structure, yet generated more total harvest (11% due to 88% relaxing of even timber flow constraint. While more volume could be harvested under traditional management conditions, the sustainability of future forest is significantly jeopardized.Research highlights: This result trongly implies that it is essential adopting modeling techniques to understand forest dynamics and forecast the future development comprehensively.Keywords: Forest management; simulation; optimization; forest dynamics; land use change.

  12. Forecasting forest development through modeling based on the legacy of forest structure over the past 43 years

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baskent, E. Z.; Celik, D. A.

    2013-09-01

    Aim of study: Sustainable management of forest ecosystems requires comprehensive coverage of data to reflect both the historical legacy and the future development of forests. This study focuses on analyzing the spatio-temporal dynamics of forests over the past 43 years to help better forecast the future development of forest under various management strategies. Area of study: The area is situated in Karaisalt district of Adana city in the southeastern corner of Turkey. Material and methods: The historical pattern from 1969 to 2012 was assessed with digital forest cover type maps, produced with high resolution aerial photo interpretation using Geographic Information Systems (GIS). The forest development over the next 120 years was forecasted using ecosystem-based multiple use forest management model (ETCAP) to understand the cause-effect relationships under various management strategies. Main results: The result showed that over the past 43 years while total forest areas decreased about 1,194 ha (4%), the productive forest areas increased about 5,397 ha (18%) with a decrease of degraded forest (5,824 ha, 20%) and increase of maquis areas (2,212 ha, 7%).The forecast of forest development under traditional management strategy resulted in an unsustainable forest due to broken initial age class structure, yet generated more total harvest (11%) due to 88% relaxing of even timber flow constraint. While more volume could be harvested under traditional management conditions, the sustainability of future forest is significantly jeopardized. Research highlights: This result trongly implies that it is essential adopting modeling techniques to understand forest dynamics and forecast the future development comprehensively. (Author)

  13. 40 CFR Table 1 to Subpart IIIi of... - Emission Standards for Stationary Pre-2007 Model Year Engines With a Displacement of

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ...-2007 Model Year Engines With a Displacement of 1 Table 1 to Subpart IIII of Part 60 Protection of... NEW STATIONARY SOURCES Standards of Performance for Stationary Compression Ignition Internal... Stationary Pre-2007 Model Year Engines With a Displacement of 2,237 KW (3,000 HP) and With a Displacement of...

  14. 40 CFR 86.008-10 - Emission standards for 2008 and later model year Otto-cycle heavy-duty engines and vehicles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... model year Otto-cycle heavy-duty engines and vehicles. 86.008-10 Section 86.008-10 Protection of... Otto-cycle HDE. (d) Every manufacturer of new motor vehicle engines subject to the standards prescribed... production of heavy-duty Otto-cycle motor vehicle engines for model year 2008, except as explicitly allowed...

  15. 40 CFR 86.098-10 - Emission standards for 1998 and later model year Otto-cycle heavy-duty engines and vehicles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... model year Otto-cycle heavy-duty engines and vehicles. 86.098-10 Section 86.098-10 Protection of..., exhaust emissions from new 1998 and later model year Otto-cycle heavy-duty engines shall not exceed: (i) For Otto-cycle heavy-duty engines fueled with either gasoline or liquefied petroleum gas, and intended...

  16. 40 CFR 86.005-10 - Emission standards for 2005 and later model year Otto-cycle heavy-duty engines and vehicles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... model year Otto-cycle heavy-duty engines and vehicles. 86.005-10 Section 86.005-10 Protection of... AND IN-USE HIGHWAY VEHICLES AND ENGINES General Provisions for Emission Regulations for 1977 and Later Model Year New Light-Duty Vehicles, Light-Duty Trucks and Heavy-Duty Engines, and for 1985 and Later...

  17. 40 CFR 86.004-11 - Emission standards for 2004 and later model year diesel heavy-duty engines and vehicles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    .... This section applies to 2004 and later model year diesel HDEs. (a)(1) Exhaust emissions from new 2004 and later model year diesel HDEs shall not exceed the following: (i)(A) Oxides of Nitrogen plus Non... diesel HDE families in any or all of the emissions ABT programs for HDEs, within the restrictions...

  18. Occurrence of blowing snow events at an alpine site over a 10-year period: Observations and modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vionnet, V.; Guyomarc'h, G.; Naaim Bouvet, F.; Martin, E.; Durand, Y.; Bellot, H.; Bel, C.; Puglièse, P.

    2013-05-01

    Blowing snow events control the evolution of the snow pack in mountainous areas and cause inhomogeneous snow distribution. The goal of this study is to identify the main features of blowing snow events at an alpine site and assess the ability of the detailed snowpack model Crocus to reproduce the occurrence of these events in a 1D configuration. We created a database of blowing snow events observed over 10 years at our experimental site. Occurrences of blowing snow events were divided into cases with and without concurrent falling snow. Overall, snow transport is observed during 10.5% of the time in winter and occurs with concurrent falling snow 37.3% of the time. Wind speed and snow age control the frequency of occurrence. Model results illustrate the necessity of taking the wind-dependence of falling snow grain characteristics into account to simulate periods of snow transport and mass fluxes satisfactorily during those periods. The high rate of false alarms produced by the model is investigated in detail for winter 2010/2011 using measurements from snow particle counters.

  19. Salinity change in the Baltic Sea during the last 8,500 years: evidence, causes and models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Westman, Per; Wastegaard, Stefan; Schoning, Kristian [Stockholm Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Quaternary Research; Gustafsson, Bo [Oceanus Havsundersoekningar, Goeteborg (Sweden); Omstedt, Anders [SMHI, Norrkoeping (Sweden)

    1999-12-01

    The salinity influences which ecosystems will dominate in the coastal area and what property radionuclides have. Salinity is also an important boundary condition for the transport models in the geosphere. Knowledge about the past salinity is important background to evaluate the hydrology and geochemistry in the rock and further to assess the radiological consequences of possible releases from a radioactive repository. This report concerns the salinity in the Baltic Sea during the last 8500 calendar years BP. Shore-level data for the inlet areas and proxy (indirect) data for the palaeo-salinity and the climate are reviewed. These data is further used in a steady-state model for the salt exchange between the Baltic Sea and Kattegat. This will then be extended to a model of the future development of the salinity in the Baltic Sea. We conclude that the changes in the inlet cross-section areas together with a 15% to 60% lower net freshwater input compared to the present input can explain the higher salinity in the Baltic Sea during earlier times.

  20. Salinity change in the Baltic Sea during the last 8,500 years: evidence, causes and models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Westman, Per; Wastegaard, Stefan; Schoning, Kristian; Omstedt, Anders

    1999-12-01

    The salinity influences which ecosystems will dominate in the coastal area and what property radionuclides have. Salinity is also an important boundary condition for the transport models in the geosphere. Knowledge about the past salinity is important background to evaluate the hydrology and geochemistry in the rock and further to assess the radiological consequences of possible releases from a radioactive repository. This report concerns the salinity in the Baltic Sea during the last 8500 calendar years BP. Shore-level data for the inlet areas and proxy (indirect) data for the palaeo-salinity and the climate are reviewed. These data is further used in a steady-state model for the salt exchange between the Baltic Sea and Kattegat. This will then be extended to a model of the future development of the salinity in the Baltic Sea. We conclude that the changes in the inlet cross-section areas together with a 15% to 60% lower net freshwater input compared to the present input can explain the higher salinity in the Baltic Sea during earlier times

  1. Reconstructing and modelling 71 years of forest growth in a Canadian boreal landscape : a test of the CBM-CFS3 carbon accounting model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bernier, P.Y.; Guindon, L. [Canadian Forest Service, Quebec, PQ (Canada). Laurentian Forestry Centre; Kurz, W.A.; Stinson, G. [Canadian Forest Service, Victoria, BC (Canada). Pacific Forestry Centre

    2010-01-15

    Modelled estimates have suggested that Canada's managed forests are now shifting from being carbon sinks to becoming carbon sources. This study evaluated the Canadian Forest Sector carbon budget model (CBM-CFS3). A reconstructed dataset of forest growth and disturbances encompassing a 62 km{sup 2} landscape spanning a 71 year period were used to demonstrate that the CBM-CFS3 simulations underestimated realized net biomass accrual by 10 per cent in undisturbed stands, and may also underestimate biomass accrual in disturbed stands. Results from the model were compared with mechanistic model predictions, flux-tower measurements of ecosystem carbon exchanges, and long-term observations of changes in biomass. The errors were attributed to the initial 1928 operational forest photointerpretation and inventory procedures used to determine merchantable volume and biomass. Regionally parameterized yield curves may also be contributing to errors. Results of the study suggested that long-term trends in climate or atmospheric composition may not have contributed to the bias. A similar exercise conducted in a Pacific coastal forest demonstrated a small relative impact on total carbon from forest management activities in the absence of natural disturbances. 30 refs., 1 tab., 8 figs.

  2. Effects of climate change on productivity of cereals and legumes; model evaluation of observed year-to-year variability of the CO2 response.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Grashoff, C.; Dijkstra, P.; Nonhebel, S.; Schapendonk, A.H.C.M.; Geijn, van de S.C.

    1995-01-01

    The effect of elevated [CO2] on the productivity of spring wheat, winter wheat and faba bean was studied in experiments in climatized crop enclosures in the Wageningen Rhizolab in 1991–93. Simulation models for crop growth were used to explore possible causes for the observed differences in the CO2

  3. Novel application of explicit dynamics occupancy models to ongoing aquatic invasions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sepulveda, Adam J.

    2018-01-01

    Identification of suitable habitats, where invasive species can establish, is an important step towards controlling their spread. Accurate identification is difficult for new or slow invaders because unoccupied habitats may be suitable, given enough time for dispersal, while occupied habitats may prove to be unsuitable for establishment.To identify the suitable habitat of a recent invader, I used an explicit dynamics occupancy modelling framework to evaluate habitat covariates related to successful and failed establishments of American bullfrogs (Lithobates catesbeianus) within the Yellowstone River floodplain of Montana, USA from 2012-2016.During this five-year period, bullfrogs failed to establish at most sites they colonized. Bullfrog establishment was most likely to occur and least likely to fail at sites closest to human-modified ponds and lakes and those with emergent vegetation. These habitat covariates were generally associated with the presence of permanent water.Suitable habitat for bullfrog establishment is abundant in the Yellowstone River floodplain, though many sites with suitable habitat remain uncolonized. Thus, the maximum distribution of bullfrogs is much greater than their current distribution.Synthesis and applications. Focused control efforts on habitats with or proximate to permanent waters are most likely to reduce the potential for invasive bullfrog establishment and spread in the Yellowstone River. The novel application of explicit dynamics occupancy models is a useful and widely applicable tool for guiding management efforts towards those habitats where new or slow invaders are most likely to establish and persist.

  4. Combining Genome-Wide Information with a Functional Structural Plant Model to Simulate 1-Year-Old Apple Tree Architecture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Migault, Vincent; Pallas, Benoît; Costes, Evelyne

    2016-01-01

    In crops, optimizing target traits in breeding programs can be fostered by selecting appropriate combinations of architectural traits which determine light interception and carbon acquisition. In apple tree, architectural traits were observed to be under genetic control. However, architectural traits also result from many organogenetic and morphological processes interacting with the environment. The present study aimed at combining a FSPM built for apple tree, MAppleT, with genetic determinisms of architectural traits, previously described in a bi-parental population. We focused on parameters related to organogenesis (phyllochron and immediate branching) and morphogenesis processes (internode length and leaf area) during the first year of tree growth. Two independent datasets collected in 2004 and 2007 on 116 genotypes, issued from a 'Starkrimson' × 'Granny Smith' cross, were used. The phyllochron was estimated as a function of thermal time and sylleptic branching was modeled subsequently depending on phyllochron. From a genetic map built with SNPs, marker effects were estimated on four MAppleT parameters with rrBLUP, using 2007 data. These effects were then considered in MAppleT to simulate tree development in the two climatic conditions. The genome wide prediction model gave consistent estimations of parameter values with correlation coefficients between observed values and estimated values from SNP markers ranging from 0.79 to 0.96. However, the accuracy of the prediction model following cross validation schemas was lower. Three integrative traits (the number of leaves, trunk length, and number of sylleptic laterals) were considered for validating MAppleT simulations. In 2007 climatic conditions, simulated values were close to observations, highlighting the correct simulation of genetic variability. However, in 2004 conditions which were not used for model calibration, the simulations differed from observations. This study demonstrates the possibility of

  5. Multi-year analysis of distributed glacier mass balance modelling and equilibrium line altitude on King George Island, Antarctic Peninsula

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    U. Falk

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available The South Shetland Islands are located at the northern tip of the Antarctic Peninsula (AP. This region was subject to strong warming trends in the atmospheric surface layer. Surface air temperature increased about 3 K in 50 years, concurrent with retreating glacier fronts, an increase in melt areas, ice surface lowering and rapid break-up and disintegration of ice shelves. The positive trend in surface air temperature has currently come to a halt. Observed surface air temperature lapse rates show a high variability during winter months (standard deviations up to ±1.0 K (100 m−1 and a distinct spatial heterogeneity reflecting the impact of synoptic weather patterns. The increased mesocyclonic activity during the wintertime over the past decades in the study area results in intensified advection of warm, moist air with high temperatures and rain and leads to melt conditions on the ice cap, fixating surface air temperatures to the melting point. Its impact on winter accumulation results in the observed negative mass balance estimates. Six years of continuous glaciological measurements on mass balance stake transects as well as 5 years of climatological data time series are presented and a spatially distributed glacier energy balance melt model adapted and run based on these multi-year data sets. The glaciological surface mass balance model is generally in good agreement with observations, except for atmospheric conditions promoting snow drift by high wind speeds, turbulence-driven snow deposition and snow layer erosion by rain. No drift in the difference between simulated mass balance and mass balance measurements can be seen over the course of the 5-year model run period. The winter accumulation does not suffice to compensate for the high variability in summer ablation. The results are analysed to assess changes in meltwater input to the coastal waters, specific glacier mass balance and the equilibrium line altitude (ELA. The

  6. Ten years of a model of aesthetic appreciation and aesthetic judgments : The aesthetic episode - Developments and challenges in empirical aesthetics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leder, Helmut; Nadal, Marcos

    2014-11-01

    About a decade ago, psychology of the arts started to gain momentum owing to a number of drives: technological progress improved the conditions under which art could be studied in the laboratory, neuroscience discovered the arts as an area of interest, and new theories offered a more comprehensive look at aesthetic experiences. Ten years ago, Leder, Belke, Oeberst, and Augustin (2004) proposed a descriptive information-processing model of the components that integrate an aesthetic episode. This theory offered explanations for modern art's large number of individualized styles, innovativeness, and for the diverse aesthetic experiences it can stimulate. In addition, it described how information is processed over the time course of an aesthetic episode, within and over perceptual, cognitive and emotional components. Here, we review the current state of the model, and its relation to the major topics in empirical aesthetics today, including the nature of aesthetic emotions, the role of context, and the neural and evolutionary foundations of art and aesthetics. © 2014 The British Psychological Society.

  7. The benefit of modeled ozone data for the reconstruction of a 99-year UV radiation time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Junk, J.; Feister, U.; Helbig, A.; GöRgen, K.; Rozanov, E.; KrzyśCin, J. W.; Hoffmann, L.

    2012-08-01

    Solar erythemal UV radiation (UVER) is highly relevant for numerous biological processes that affect plants, animals, and human health. Nevertheless, long-term UVER records are scarce. As significant declines in the column ozone concentration were observed in the past and a recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer is anticipated by the middle of the 21st century, there is a strong interest in the temporal variation of UVERtime series. Therefore, we combined ground-based measurements of different meteorological variables with modeled ozone data sets to reconstruct time series of daily totals of UVER at the Meteorological Observatory, Potsdam, Germany. Artificial neural networks were trained with measured UVER, sunshine duration, the day of year, measured and modeled total column ozone, as well as the minimum solar zenith angle. This allows for the reconstruction of daily totals of UVERfor the period from 1901 to 1999. Additionally, analyses of the long-term variations from 1901 until 1999 of the reconstructed, new UVER data set are presented. The time series of monthly and annual totals of UVERprovide a long-term meteorological basis for epidemiological investigations in human health and occupational medicine for the region of Potsdam and Berlin. A strong benefit of our ANN-approach is the fact that it can be easily adapted to different geographical locations, as successfully tested in the framework of the COSTAction 726.

  8. Effects of body habitus on internal radiation dose calculations using the 5-year-old anthropomorphic male models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Tianwu; Kuster, Niels; Zaidi, Habib

    2017-08-01

    Computational phantoms are commonly used in internal radiation dosimetry to assess the amount and distribution pattern of energy deposited in various parts of the human body from different internal radiation sources. Radiation dose assessments are commonly performed on predetermined reference computational phantoms while the argument for individualized patient-specific radiation dosimetry exists. This study aims to evaluate the influence of body habitus on internal dosimetry and to quantify the uncertainties in dose estimation correlated with the use of fixed reference models. The 5-year-old IT’IS male phantom was modified to match target anthropometric parameters, including body weight, body height and sitting height/stature ratio (SSR), determined from reference databases, thus enabling the creation of 125 5-year-old habitus-dependent male phantoms with 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th and 90th percentile body morphometries. We evaluated the absorbed fractions and the mean absorbed dose to the target region per unit cumulative activity in the source region (S-values) of F-18 in 46 source regions for the generated 125 anthropomorphic 5-year-old hybrid male phantoms using the Monte Carlo N-Particle eXtended general purpose Monte Carlo transport code and calculated the absorbed dose and effective dose of five 18F-labelled radiotracers for children of various habitus. For most organs, the S-value of F-18 presents stronger statistical correlations with body weight, standing height and sitting height than BMI and SSR. The self-absorbed fraction and self-absorbed S-values of F-18 and the absorbed dose and effective dose of 18F-labelled radiotracers present with the strongest statistical correlations with body weight. For 18F-Amino acids, 18F-Brain receptor substances, 18F-FDG, 18F-L-DOPA and 18F-FBPA, the mean absolute effective dose differences between phantoms of different habitus and fixed reference models are 11.4%, 11.3%, 10.8%, 13.3% and 11.4%, respectively. Total body

  9. The impact of combined ENSO and PDO on the PNA climate: a 1,000-year climate modeling study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yu, B. [Environment Canada, Climate Data and Analysis Section, Climate Research Division, Toronto, ON (Canada); Zwiers, F.W. [Environment Canada, Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Climate Research Division, Victoria (Canada)

    2007-12-15

    This study analyzes the atmospheric response to the combined Pacific interannual ENSO and decadal-interdecadal PDO variability, with a focus on the Pacific-North American (PNA) sector, using a 1,000-year long integration of the Canadian Center for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) coupled climate model. Both the tropospheric circulation and the North American temperature suggest an enhanced PNA-like climate response and impacts on North America when ENSO and PDO variability are in phase. The anomalies of the centers of action for the PNA-like pattern are significantly different from zero and the anomaly pattern is field significant. In association with the stationary wave anomalies, large stationary wave activity fluxes appear in the mid-high latitudes originating from the North Pacific and flowing downstream toward North America. There are significant Rossby wave source anomalies in the extratropical North Pacific and in the subtropical North Pacific. In addition, the axis of the Pacific storm track shifts southward with the positive PNA. Atmospheric heating anomalies associated with ENSO variability are confined primarily to the tropics. There is an anomalous heating center over the northeast Pacific, together with anomalies with the same polarity in the tropical Pacific, for the PDO variability. The in-phase combination of ENSO and PDO would in turn provide anomalous atmospheric energy transports towards North America from both the Tropical Pacific and the North Pacific, which tends to favor the occurrence of stationary wave anomalies and would lead to a PNA-like wave anomaly structure. The modeling results also confirm our analysis based on the observational record in the twentieth century. (orig.)

  10. Cost Effectiveness of Childhood Cochlear Implantation and Deaf Education in Nicaragua: A Disability Adjusted Life Year Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saunders, James E; Barrs, David M; Gong, Wenfeng; Wilson, Blake S; Mojica, Karen; Tucci, Debara L

    2015-09-01

    Cochlear implantation (CI) is a common intervention for severe-to-profound hearing loss in high-income countries, but is not commonly available to children in low resource environments. Owing in part to the device costs, CI has been assumed to be less economical than deaf education for low resource countries. The purpose of this study is to compare the cost effectiveness of the two interventions for children with severe-to-profound sensorineural hearing loss (SNHL) in a model using disability adjusted life years (DALYs). Cost estimates were derived from published data, expert opinion, and known costs of services in Nicaragua. Individual costs and lifetime DALY estimates with a 3% discounting rate were applied to both two interventions. Sensitivity analysis was implemented to evaluate the effect on the discounted cost of five key components: implant cost, audiology salary, speech therapy salary, number of children implanted per year, and device failure probability. The costs per DALY averted are $5,898 and $5,529 for CI and deaf education, respectively. Using standards set by the WHO, both interventions are cost effective. Sensitivity analysis shows that when all costs set to maximum estimates, CI is still cost effective. Using a conservative DALY analysis, both CI and deaf education are cost-effective treatment alternatives for severe-to-profound SNHL. CI intervention costs are not only influenced by the initial surgery and device costs but also by rehabilitation costs and the lifetime maintenance, device replacement, and battery costs. The major CI cost differences in this low resource setting were increased initial training and infrastructure costs, but lower medical personnel and surgery costs.

  11. [The changing profile of caregivers of persons aged 65 years and over with disabilities within a persisting family care model].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zueras, Pilar; Spijker, Jeroen; Blanes, Amand

    The increasing participation of women in the workforce may make it difficult to sustain the current model of elderly care. The aim of this article was to determine the changing sociodemographic profile of informal elderly caregivers with disabilities, the interaction between employment and care, and the view of the public on the responsibility of that care. Cross-sectional analysis of secondary data from four national surveys were used: the disability surveys held in 1999 (N=3,936) and 2008 (N=5,257), the 2011-12 National Health Survey (N=439), and the Family and Gender survey of 2012 (N=1,359). They were analysed using contingency tables based on gender and age. Half of the informal caregivers were women aged 45 to 64 years. Between 1999 and 2011-12 they became more concentrated in the 55-64 age-bracket, among whom participation in the workforce doubled from 20% to 40%. Increased care for men was associated with unemployment. Care work had a negative impact on working life, with greater impact among women and those who cared for elderly people with severe disabilities. Less likely to consider that elderly care provision should rest on family are 45-54 year-old economically active women (only 42%) or those who are more educated (40%), compared to 60% of economically inactive women and 55% of less educated women. Economically active and educated women are less inclined to family-based care, but assume it independently of their workforce participation, whereas males do so according to their availability. Copyright © 2017 SEGG. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  12. Transmembrane signaling in Saccharomyces cerevisiae as a model for signaling in metazoans: state of the art after 25 years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engelberg, David; Perlman, Riki; Levitzki, Alexander

    2014-12-01

    In the very first article that appeared in Cellular Signalling, published in its inaugural issue in October 1989, we reviewed signal transduction pathways in Saccharomyces cerevisiae. Although this yeast was already a powerful model organism for the study of cellular processes, it was not yet a valuable instrument for the investigation of signaling cascades. In 1989, therefore, we discussed only two pathways, the Ras/cAMP and the mating (Fus3) signaling cascades. The pivotal findings concerning those pathways undoubtedly contributed to the realization that yeast is a relevant model for understanding signal transduction in higher eukaryotes. Consequently, the last 25 years have witnessed the discovery of many signal transduction pathways in S. cerevisiae, including the high osmotic glycerol (Hog1), Stl2/Mpk1 and Smk1 mitogen-activated protein (MAP) kinase pathways, the TOR, AMPK/Snf1, SPS, PLC1 and Pkr/Gcn2 cascades, and systems that sense and respond to various types of stress. For many cascades, orthologous pathways were identified in mammals following their discovery in yeast. Here we review advances in the understanding of signaling in S. cerevisiae over the last 25 years. When all pathways are analyzed together, some prominent themes emerge. First, wiring of signaling cascades may not be identical in all S. cerevisiae strains, but is probably specific to each genetic background. This situation complicates attempts to decipher and generalize these webs of reactions. Secondly, the Ras/cAMP and the TOR cascades are pivotal pathways that affect all processes of the life of the yeast cell, whereas the yeast MAP kinase pathways are not essential. Yeast cells deficient in all MAP kinases proliferate normally. Another theme is the existence of central molecular hubs, either as single proteins (e.g., Msn2/4, Flo11) or as multisubunit complexes (e.g., TORC1/2), which are controlled by numerous pathways and in turn determine the fate of the cell. It is also apparent that

  13. Evaluation of land surface model simulations of evapotranspiration over a 12 year crop succession: impact of the soil hydraulic properties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garrigues, S.; Olioso, A.; Calvet, J.-C.; Martin, E.; Lafont, S.; Moulin, S.; Chanzy, A.; Marloie, O.; Desfonds, V.; Bertrand, N.; Renard, D.

    2014-10-01

    Evapotranspiration has been recognized as one of the most uncertain term in the surface water balance simulated by land surface models. In this study, the SURFEX/ISBA-A-gs simulations of evapotranspiration are assessed at local scale over a 12 year Mediterranean crop succession. The model is evaluated in its standard implementation which relies on the use of the ISBA pedotransfer estimates of the soil properties. The originality of this work consists in explicitly representing the succession of crop cycles and inter-crop bare soil periods in the simulations and assessing its impact on the dynamic of simulated and measured evapotranspiration over a long period of time. The analysis focuses on key soil parameters which drive the simulation of evapotranspiration, namely the rooting depth, the soil moisture at saturation, the soil moisture at field capacity and the soil moisture at wilting point. The simulations achieved with the standard values of these parameters are compared to those achieved with the in situ values. The portability of the ISBA pedotransfer functions is evaluated over a typical Mediterranean crop site. Various in situ estimates of the soil parameters are considered and distinct parametrization strategies are tested to represent the evapotranspiration dynamic over the crop succession. This work shows that evapotranspiration mainly results from the soil evaporation when it is continuously simulated over a Mediterranean crop succession. The evapotranspiration simulated with the standard surface and soil parameters of the model is largely underestimated. The deficit in cumulative evapotranspiration amounts to 24% over 12 years. The bias in daily daytime evapotranspiration is -0.24 mm day-1. The ISBA pedotransfer estimates of the soil moisture at saturation and at wilting point are overestimated which explains most of the evapotranspiration underestimation. The overestimation of the soil moisture at wilting point causes the underestimation of

  14. In-use NOx emissions from model year 2010 and 2011 heavy-duty diesel engines equipped with aftertreatment devices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Misra, Chandan; Collins, John F; Herner, Jorn D; Sax, Todd; Krishnamurthy, Mohan; Sobieralski, Wayne; Burntizki, Mark; Chernich, Don

    2013-07-16

    The California Air Resources Board (ARB) undertook this study to characterize the in-use emissions of model year (MY) 2010 or newer diesel engines. Emissions from four trucks: one equipped with an exhaust gas recirculation (EGR) and three equipped with EGR and a selective catalytic reduction (SCR) device were measured on two different routes with three different payloads using a portable emissions measurement system (PEMS) in the Sacramento area. Results indicated that brake-specific NOx emissions for the truck equipped only with an EGR were independent of the driving conditions. Results also showed that for typical highway driving conditions, the SCR technology is proving to be effective in controlling NOx emissions. However, under operations where the SCR's do not reach minimum operating temperature, like cold starts and some low load/slow speed driving conditions, NOx emissions are still elevated. The study indicated that strategies used to maintain exhaust temperature above a certain threshold, which are used in some of the newer SCRs, have the potential to control NOx emissions during certain low-load/slow speed driving conditions.

  15. The deaf strong hospital program: a model of diversity and inclusion training for first-year medical students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thew, Denise; Smith, Scott R; Chang, Christopher; Starr, Matt

    2012-11-01

    Recent research indicates that the cultural competence training students receive during medical school might not adequately address the issues that arise when caring for patients of different cultures. Because of their unique communication, linguistic, and cultural issues, incorporating deaf people who use sign language into cultural competence education at medical schools might help to bridge this gap in cross-cultural education. The Deaf Strong Hospital (DSH) program at the University of Rochester School of Medicine and Dentistry, started in 1998, exposes first-year medical students to the issues that are relevant to providing effective patient care and to establishing multicultural sensitivity early in their medical education. Because medical students better acquire cross-cultural competence through hands-on experience rather than through lectures, the DSH program, which includes a role-reversal exercise in which medical students play the role of the patients, provides such a model for other medical schools and health care training centers to use in teaching future health care providers how to address the relevant cultural, linguistic, and communication needs of both their deaf patients and their non-English-speaking patients. This article describes the DSH program curriculum, shares findings from both medical students' short-term and long-term postprogram evaluations, and provides a framework for the implementation of a broader cultural and linguistic sensitivity training program specific to working with and improving the quality of health care among deaf people.

  16. Visibility of children behind 2010-2013 model year passenger vehicles using glances, mirrors, and backup cameras and parking sensors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kidd, David G; Brethwaite, Andrew

    2014-05-01

    This study identified the areas behind vehicles where younger and older children are not visible and measured the extent to which vehicle technologies improve visibility. Rear visibility of targets simulating the heights of a 12-15-month-old, a 30-36-month-old, and a 60-72-month-old child was assessed in 21 2010-2013 model year passenger vehicles with a backup camera or a backup camera plus parking sensor system. The average blind zone for a 12-15-month-old was twice as large as it was for a 60-72-month-old. Large SUVs had the worst rear visibility and small cars had the best. Increases in rear visibility provided by backup cameras were larger than the non-visible areas detected by parking sensors, but parking sensors detected objects in areas near the rear of the vehicle that were not visible in the camera or other fields of view. Overall, backup cameras and backup cameras plus parking sensors reduced the blind zone by around 90 percent on average and have the potential to prevent backover crashes if drivers use the technology appropriately. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Promoting Metacognition in First Year Anatomy Laboratories Using Plasticine Modeling and Drawing Activities: A Pilot Study of the "Blank Page" Technique

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naug, Helen L.; Colson, Natalie J.; Donner, Daniel G.

    2011-01-01

    Many first year students of anatomy and physiology courses demonstrate an inability to self-regulate their learning. To help students increase their awareness of their own learning in a first year undergraduate anatomy course, we piloted an exercise that incorporated the processes of (1) active learning: drawing and plasticine modeling and (2)…

  18. 76 FR 66734 - National Institute on Deafness and Other Communication Disorders Draft 2012-2016 Strategic Plan

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-10-27

    ... serves as a guide to the NIDCD in prioritizing its research investment, illustrates the current state-of... three program areas seek to answer fundamental scientific questions about normal function and disorders... sustained investments in biomedical research. Responses to this Notice are voluntary. Proprietary...

  19. Enfrentando el racismo institucional. Análisis de dos casos de migrantes senegaleses en Argentina (2012-2016

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    María Luz Espiro

    Full Text Available Resumen En este artículo abordamos el modo en el cual el control estatal y el racismo institucional en Argentina son contestados desde las prácticas de algunos migrantes senegaleses. Para ello analizamos dos casos de agencia: la trayectoria de Amadou y la marcha por la muerte de Massar Ba. En ambas situaciones hemos reconstruido el uso estratégico que los migrantes han hecho de las instituciones estatales, de las instituciones no gubernamentales, de los vínculos con académicos y de los medios de comunicación para canalizar sus demandas y mejorar su situación en el país. Así, al visibilizar la agencia de este colectivo migrante, buscamos despojarlos del status de víctimas y reconocerlos con capacidad de acción, de cambio, de toma de decisiones, iniciativas y riesgos.

  20. Genetic Characterization of Continually Evolving Highly Pathogenic H5N6 Influenza Viruses in China, 2012-2016.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Meng; Zhao, Na; Luo, Jing; Li, Yuan; Chen, Lin; Ma, Jiajun; Zhao, Lin; Yuan, Guohui; Wang, Chengmin; Wang, Yutian; Liu, Yanhua; He, Hongxuan

    2017-01-01

    H5N6 is a highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) and a zoonotic disease that causes recurring endemics in East Asia. At least 155 H5N6 outbreaks, including 15 human infections, have been reported in China. These repeated outbreaks have increased concern that the H5N6 virus may cross over to humans and cause a pandemic. In February, 2016, peafowls in a breeding farm exhibited a highly contagious disease. Post-mortem examinations, including RT-PCR, and virus isolation, confirmed that the highly pathogenic H5N6 influenza virus was the causative agent, and the strain was named A/ Pavo Cristatus /Jiangxi/JA1/2016. In animal experiments, it exhibited high pathogenicity in chickens and an estimated median lethal dose in mice of ~10 4.3 TCID 50 . A phylogenetic analysis showed that JA1/2016 was clustered in H5 clade 2.3.4.4. FG594-like H5N6 virus from Guangdong Province was the probable predecessor of JA1/2016, and the estimated divergence time was June 2014. Furthermore, we found that H5N6 influenza viruses can be classified into the two following groups: Group 1 and Group 2. Group 2 influenza viruses have not been detected since the end of 2014, whereas Group 1 influenza viruses have continually evolved and reassorted with the "gene pool" circulating in south China, resulting in the rise of novel subtypes of this influenza virus. An increase in the number of its identified hosts, the expanding range of its distribution, and the continual evolution of H5N6 AIVs enhance the risk that an H5N6 virus may spread to other continents and cause a pandemic.

  1. Proyecto de formación universitaria en Inteligencia Territorial : Uruguay 2012-2016 en Minas, Lavalleja

    OpenAIRE

    Bozzano, Horacio Rodolfo

    2012-01-01

    Este proyecto de formación universitaria en Inteligencia Territorial y Transformación nació en 2008 en Minas, capital del Departamento de Lavalleja, de la articulación de factores socio-territoriales, institucionales y científicos; continuó luego con la Intendencia de Lavalleja, el Parlamento del Mercosur, el GDRI-INTI, el MEC Ministerio de Educación y Cultura del Uruguay y actualmente, el CLAEH, instituto universitario del Uruguay. El objetivo es la formación de agentes de cambio y sujetos d...

  2. En begivenhetsstudie av laksesektoren på Oslo Børs i perioden 2012-2016 : kvartalsresultat vs. analytikernes forventninger

    OpenAIRE

    Mellingen, Torstein Nyhammer

    2017-01-01

    In this master thesis I investigate three issues. First I start by analysing whether the analysts Henning Lund, Kjetil Lye and Kolbjørn Giskeødegård have been able to give their customers excess returns through trade recommendations for salmon stocks at Oslo Stock Exchange between 01.01.2012 – 31.12.2016. By conducting an event study I also analyse how the stock prices for eight salmon companies2 react before, during and after publication of quarterly reports, as well as how the stock prices ...

  3. What Performance Analysts Need to Know About Research Trends in Association Football (2012-2016): A Systematic Review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarmento, Hugo; Clemente, Filipe Manuel; Araújo, Duarte; Davids, Keith; McRobert, Allistair; Figueiredo, António

    2018-04-01

    Evolving patterns of match analysis research need to be systematically reviewed regularly since this area of work is burgeoning rapidly and studies can offer new insights to performance analysts if theoretically and coherently organized. The purpose of this paper was to conduct a systematic review of published articles on match analysis in adult male football, identify and organize common research topics, and synthesize the emerging patterns of work between 2012 and 2016, according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. The Web of Science database was searched for relevant published studies using the following keywords: 'football' and 'soccer', each one associated with the terms 'match analysis', 'performance analysis', 'notational analysis', 'game analysis', 'tactical analysis' and 'patterns of play'. Of 483 studies initially identified, 77 were fully reviewed and their outcome measures extracted and analyzed. Results showed that research mainly focused on (1) performance at set pieces, i.e. corner kicks, free kicks, penalty kicks; (2) collective system behaviours, captured by established variables such as team centroid (geometrical centre of a set of players) and team dispersion (quantification of how far players are apart), as well as tendencies for team communication (establishing networks based on passing sequences), sequential patterns (predicting future passing sequences), and group outcomes (relationships between match-related statistics and final match scores); and (3) activity profile of players, i.e. playing roles, effects of fatigue, substitutions during matches, and the effects of environmental constraints on performance, such as heat and altitude. From the previous review, novel variables were identified that require new measurement techniques. It is evident that the complexity engendered during performance in competitive soccer requires an integrated approach that considers multiple aspects. A challenge for researchers is to align these new measures with the needs of the coaches through a more integrated relationship between coaches and researchers, to produce practical and usable information that improves player performance and coach activity.

  4. III. Heterogeneous Polymerization. Modeling of emulsion polymerization, will it ever be possible? Part 2: Determination of Basic Kinetic data over the last ten years.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Herk, van A.M.

    2009-01-01

    Modeling of Emulsion polymerization processes is based on the knowledge of fundamental kinetic and thermodynamic parameters. The most important kinetic parameters are propagation and termination rate coefficients. Ten years ago a paper has been published with the title Modeling of Emulsion

  5. Behavioural Outcomes of Four-Year-Old Children Prenatally Exposed to Methadone or Buprenorphine: A Test of Three Risk Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Konijnenberg, Carolien; Lund, Ingunn Olea; Melinder, Annika

    2015-01-01

    It is still under debate whether the reported effects of opioid maintenance therapy (OMT) on child behaviour are a direct effect of prenatal exposure, or whether other factors are involved. This prospective cohort study investigated three models: the teratogenic risk model, the maternal risk model, and a combined risk model in a group of 35…

  6. Five year experience in management of perforated peptic ulcer and validation of common mortality risk prediction models - are existing models sufficient? A retrospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anbalakan, K; Chua, D; Pandya, G J; Shelat, V G

    2015-02-01

    Emergency surgery for perforated peptic ulcer (PPU) is associated with significant morbidity and mortality. Accurate and early risk stratification is important. The primary aim of this study is to validate the various existing MRPMs and secondary aim is to audit our experience of managing PPU. 332 patients who underwent emergency surgery for PPU at a single intuition from January 2008 to December 2012 were studied. Clinical and operative details were collected. Four MRPMs: American Society of Anesthesiology (ASA) score, Boey's score, Mannheim peritonitis index (MPI) and Peptic ulcer perforation (PULP) score were validated. Median age was 54.7 years (range 17-109 years) with male predominance (82.5%). 61.7% presented within 24 h of onset of abdominal pain. Median length of stay was 7 days (range 2-137 days). Intra-abdominal collection, leakage, re-operation and 30-day mortality rates were 8.1%, 2.1%, 1.2% and 7.2% respectively. All the four MRPMs predicted intra-abdominal collection and mortality; however, only MPI predicted leak (p = 0.01) and re-operation (p = 0.02) rates. The area under curve for predicting mortality was 75%, 72%, 77.2% and 75% for ASA score, Boey's score, MPI and PULP score respectively. Emergency surgery for PPU has low morbidity and mortality in our experience. MPI is the only scoring system which predicts all - intra-abdominal collection, leak, reoperation and mortality. All four MRPMs had a similar and fair accuracy to predict mortality, however due to geographic and demographic diversity and inherent weaknesses of exiting MRPMs, quest for development of an ideal model should continue. Copyright © 2015 Surgical Associates Ltd. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Spatial and temporal modelling of fluvial aggradation in the Hasli Valley (Swiss Alps) during the last 1300 years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Llorca, Jaime; Schulte, Lothar; Carvalho, Filipe

    2016-04-01

    process. Results suggest a longitudinal decrease of sedimentation rates from the apex towards the distal section of the delta plain. Differences in rates are also found within each cross-section (e.g. channel-levée: higher rates; interdistributary depression: lower rates), suggesting an asymmetric growth of the floodplain. A GIS paleosurfaces model was executed to calculate the fluvial sediment storage, which was subdivided in 300-year time slices, thus contributing to identify temporal trends in floodplain aggradation. The results were analyzed with regard to external drivers that control the sedimentation processes in the Haslital delta, such as climate and/or anthropogenic factors (land-use changes, hydraulic management), as well as the influence of the internal system settings. The facies-based approach provides an explanation of both the spatial and temporal components of delta plain formation; and produces valid information for local flood risk management, concerning the problem of alpine floodplains aggradation.

  8. Prediction and validation of pool fire development in enclosures by means of CFD Models for risk assessment of nuclear power plants (Poolfire) - Report year 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Hees, P.; Wahlqvist, J.; Kong, D.; Hostikka, S.; Sikanen, T.; Husted, B.; Magnusson, T.; Joerud, F.

    2013-05-01

    Fires in nuclear power plants can be an important hazard for the overall safety of the facility. One of the typical fire sources is a pool fire. It is therefore important to have good knowledge on the fire behaviour of pool fire and be able to predict the heat release rate by prediction of the mass loss rate. This project envisages developing a pyrolysis model to be used in CFD models. In this report the activities for second year are reported, which is an overview of the experiments conducted, further development and validation of models and cases study to be selected in year 3. (Author)

  9. Prediction and validation of pool fire development in enclosures by means of CFD Models for risk assessment of nuclear power plants (Poolfire) - Report year 2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    van Hees, P.; Wahlqvist, J.; Kong, D. [Lund Univ., Lund (Sweden); Hostikka, S.; Sikanen, T. [VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland (Finland); Husted, B. [Haugesund Univ. College, Stord (Norway); Magnusson, T. [Ringhals AB, Vaeroebacka (Sweden); Joerud, F. [European Spallation Source (ESS), Lund (Sweden)

    2013-05-15

    Fires in nuclear power plants can be an important hazard for the overall safety of the facility. One of the typical fire sources is a pool fire. It is therefore important to have good knowledge on the fire behaviour of pool fire and be able to predict the heat release rate by prediction of the mass loss rate. This project envisages developing a pyrolysis model to be used in CFD models. In this report the activities for second year are reported, which is an overview of the experiments conducted, further development and validation of models and cases study to be selected in year 3. (Author)

  10. Changes of net primary productivity in China during recent 11 years detected using an ecological model driven by MODIS data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yibo; Ju, Weimin; He, Honglin; Wang, Shaoqiang; Sun, Rui; Zhang, Yuandong

    2013-03-01

    Net primary productivity (NPP) is an important component of the terrestrial carbon cycle. Accurately mapping the spatial-temporal variations of NPP in China is crucial for global carbon cycling study. In this study the process-based Boreal Ecosystem Productivity Simulator (BEPS) was employed to study the changes of NPP in China's ecosystems for the period from 2000 to 2010. The BEPS model was first validated using gross primary productivity (GPP) measured at typical flux sites and forest NPP measured at different regions. Then it was driven with leaf area index (LAI) inversed from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) reflectance and land cover products and meteorological data interpolated from observations at 753 national basic meteorological stations to simulate NPP at daily time steps and a spatial resolution of 500 m from January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2010. Validations show that BEPS is able to capture the seasonal variations of tower-based GPP and the spatial variability of forest NPP in different regions of China. Estimated national total of annual NPP varied from 2.63 to 2.84Pg C·yr-1, averaging 2.74 Pg C·yr-1 during the study period. Simulated terrestrial NPP shows spatial patterns decreasing from the east to the west and from the south to the north, in association with land cover types and climate. South-west China makes the largest contribution to the national total of NPP while NPP in the North-west account for only 3.97% of the national total. During the recent 11 years, the temporal changes of NPP were heterogamous. NPP increased in 63.8% of China's landmass, mainly in areas north of the Yangtze River and decreased in most areas of southern China, owing to the low temperature freezing in early 2008 and the severe drought in late 2009.

  11. Marker-based or model-based RSA for evaluation of hip resurfacing arthroplasty? A clinical validation and 5-year follow-up.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lorenzen, Nina Dyrberg; Stilling, Maiken; Jakobsen, Stig Storgaard; Gustafson, Klas; Søballe, Kjeld; Baad-Hansen, Thomas

    2013-11-01

    The stability of implants is vital to ensure a long-term survival. RSA determines micro-motions of implants as a predictor of early implant failure. RSA can be performed as a marker- or model-based analysis. So far, CAD and RE model-based RSA have not been validated for use in hip resurfacing arthroplasty (HRA). A phantom study determined the precision of marker-based and CAD and RE model-based RSA on a HRA implant. In a clinical study, 19 patients were followed with stereoradiographs until 5 years after surgery. Analysis of double-examination migration results determined the clinical precision of marker-based and CAD model-based RSA, and at the 5-year follow-up, results of the total translation (TT) and the total rotation (TR) for marker- and CAD model-based RSA were compared. The phantom study showed that comparison of the precision (SDdiff) in marker-based RSA analysis was more precise than model-based RSA analysis in TT (p CAD RSA analysis (p = 0.002), but showed no difference between the marker- and CAD model-based RSA analysis regarding the TR (p = 0.91). Comparing the mean signed values regarding the TT and the TR at the 5-year follow-up in 13 patients, the TT was lower (p = 0.03) and the TR higher (p = 0.04) in the marker-based RSA compared to CAD model-based RSA. The precision of marker-based RSA was significantly better than model-based RSA. However, problems with occluded markers lead to exclusion of many patients which was not a problem with model-based RSA. HRA were stable at the 5-year follow-up. The detection limit was 0.2 mm TT and 1° TR for marker-based and 0.5 mm TT and 1° TR for CAD model-based RSA for HRA.

  12. The Cost-Effectiveness of Influenza Vaccination for People Aged 50 to 64 Years: An International Model

    OpenAIRE

    Aballéa, Samuel; Chancellor, Jeremy; Martin, Monique; Wutzler, Peter; Carrat, Fabrice; Gasparini, Roberto; Toniolo-Neto, Joao; Drummond, Michael; Weinstein, Milton

    2007-01-01

    Objectives: Routine influenza vaccination is currently recommended in several countries for people aged more than 60 or 65 years or with high risk of complications. A lower age threshold of 50 years has been recommended in the United States since 1999. To help policymakers consider whether such a policy should be adopted more widely, we conducted an economic evaluation of lowering the age limit for routine influenza vaccination to 50 years in Brazil, France, Germany, and Italy.Methods: the pr...

  13. Fleet average NOx emission performance of 2004 model year light-duty vehicles, light-duty trucks and medium-duty passenger vehicles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2006-05-01

    The On-Road Vehicle and Engine Emission Regulations came into effect on January 1, 2004. The regulations introduced more stringent national emission standards for on-road vehicles and engines, and also required that companies submit reports containing information concerning the company's fleets. This report presented a summary of the regulatory requirements relating to nitric oxide (NO x ) fleet average emissions for light-duty vehicles, light-duty trucks, and medium-duty passenger vehicles under the new regulations. The effectiveness of the Canadian fleet average NO x emission program at achieving environmental performance objectives was also evaluated. A summary of the fleet average NO x emission performance of individual companies was presented, as well as the overall Canadian fleet average of the 2004 model year based on data submitted by companies in their end of model year reports. A total of 21 companies submitted reports covering 2004 model year vehicles in 10 test groups, comprising 1,350,719 vehicles of the 2004 model year manufactured or imported for the purpose of sale in Canada. The average NO x value for the entire Canadian LDV/LDT fleet was 0.2016463 grams per mile. The average NO x values for the entire Canadian HLDT/MDPV fleet was 0.321976 grams per mile. It was concluded that the NO x values for both fleets were consistent with the environmental performance objectives of the regulations for the 2004 model year. 9 tabs

  14. Change Management Model for Implementing an Effective First-Year Experience Program in the Community College Setting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tucker, Joy C.

    2015-01-01

    This study provides evidence that systematic management of change can facilitate the implementation of first-year experience programming that leads to improved results in retention and student success for community college students. The study includes four major themes: (a) first-year experience, (b) change management, (c) change leadership, and…

  15. Perceptions of five-year competitive categories: model of how relative age influences competitiveness in masters sport.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medic, Nikola; Young, Bradley W; Grove, J Robert

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine the contrasting perceptions of masters swimmers related to the first and fifth constituent years of a 5-year age category. Swimmers aged between 35 and 93 years (154 male, 184 female) were surveyed at the 2008 FINA World Masters Championships. Exploratory factor analysis indicated the existence of the following five factors considered important for preparation, attendance, and success at masters competitions: awareness of advantages, expectancy, motivation, training, and physiological capacity. One sample t-tests showed that masters swimmers are conscious of advantages that 5-year age categories afford to relatively-younger cohorts (i.e., those who are in the first year of any age category). They also perceive that, in the first compared to the fifth year of an age category, they have greater physiological capacity, engage in more training, have higher expectations to perform well, and are more motivated (all ps competitions than relatively older masters athletes. Key PointsThere are at least five psycho-social and physical factors (i.e., awareness of advantages, expectancy, motivation, training, and physiological capacity) that may explain why relatively younger masters athletes are more likely to perform better and to participate more in masters competitions than relatively older masters athletes.Masters athletes are conscious of the advantage that 5-year age categories afford to relatively younger cohorts of athletes.Differential perceptions associated with the 5-year age categories might compromise masters athletes' continuity of sport competitiveness and underlying training.

  16. Testing the Monetary Model for Exchange Rate Determination in South Africa: Evidence from 101 Years of Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Riané de Bruyn

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Evidence in favor of the monetary model of exchange rate determination for the South African Rand is, at best, mixed. A co-integrating relationship between the nominal exchange rate and monetary fundamentals forms the basis of the monetary model. With the econometric literature suggesting that the span of the data, not the frequency, determines the power of the co-integration tests and the studies on South Africa primarily using short-span data from the post-Bretton Woods era, we decided to test the long-run monetary model of exchange rate determination for the South African Rand relative to the US Dollar using annual data from 1910 – 2010. The results provide some support for the monetary model in that long-run co-integration is found between the nominal exchange rate and the output and money supply deviations. However, the theoretical restrictions required by the monetary model are rejected. A vector error-correction model identifies both the nominal exchange rate and the monetary fundamentals as the channel for the adjustment process of deviations from the long-run equilibrium exchange rate. A subsequent comparison of nominal exchange rate forecasts based on the monetary model with those of the random walk model suggests that the forecasting performance of the monetary model is superior.

  17. 40 CFR 1039.102 - What exhaust emission standards and phase-in allowances apply for my engines in model year 2014...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... for any engine family in the 56-130 kW power category is 2.3 g/kW-hr for model years 2012 and 2013...-unit engine family in the 75-130 kW power category may be certified to meet the standards for PM, NMHC... the first four years of the Tier 4 standards for the applicable power category, as allowed in § 1039...

  18. Vanishing Boundaries between Science and Art: Modelling Effective Middle Years of Schooling Practice in Pre-Service Science Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paige, Kathryn; Whitney, John

    2008-01-01

    This paper describes an innovation in science pre-service education that endeavours to increase student engagement in learning and doing science in the middle years through integrating science, mathematics and art. (Contains 8 figures.)

  19. Comparing Mortality of Peritoneal and Hemodialysis Patients in the First 2 Years of Dialysis Therapy: A Marginal Structural Model Analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lukowsky, Lilia R.; Mehrotra, Rajnish; Kheifets, Leeka; Arah, Onyebuchi A.; Nissenson, Allen R.; Kalantar-Zadeh, Kamyar

    2013-01-01

    Background and objectives There are conflicting research results about the survival differences between hemodialysis and peritoneal dialysis, especially during the first 2 years of dialysis treatment. Given the challenges of conducting randomized trials, differential rates of modality switch and

  20. Analysis of the benefits of designing and implementing a virtual didactic model of multiple choice exam and problem-solving heuristic report, for first year engineering students

    OpenAIRE

    Bennun, Leonardo; Santibanez, Mauricio

    2015-01-01

    Improvements in performance and approval obtained by first year engineering students from University of Concepcion, Chile, were studied, once a virtual didactic model of multiple-choice exam, was implemented. This virtual learning resource was implemented in the Web ARCO platform and allows training, by facing test models comparable in both time and difficulty to those that they will have to solve during the course. It also provides a feedback mechanism for both: 1) The students, since they c...

  1. One-year experience of a regional service model of teleconsultation for planning and treatment of complex thoracoabdominal aortic disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chisci, Emiliano; de Donato, Gianmarco; Fargion, Aaron; Ventoruzzo, Giorgio; Parlani, Gianbattista; Setacci, Carlo; Ercolini, Leonardo; Michelagnoli, Stefano

    2018-03-01

    The objective of this study was to report the methodology and 1-year experience of a regional service model of teleconsultation for planning and treatment of complex thoracoabdominal aortic disease (TAAD). Complex TAADs without a feasible conventional surgical repair were prospectively evaluated by vascular surgeons of the same public health service (National Health System) located in a huge area of 22,994 km 2 with 3.7 million inhabitants and 11 tertiary hospitals. Surgeons evaluated computed tomography scans and clinical details that were placed on a web platform (Google Drive; Google, Mountain View, Calif) and shared by all surgeons. Patients gave informed consent for the teleconsultation. The surgeon who submits a case discusses in detail his or her case and proposes a possible therapeutic strategy. The other surgeons suggest other solutions and options in terms of grafts, techniques, or access to be used. Computed tomography angiography, angiography, and clinical outcomes of cases are then presented at the following telemeetings, and a final agreement of the operative strategy is evaluated. Teleconsultation is performed using a web conference service (WebConference.com; Avaya Inc, Basking Ridge, NJ) every month. An inter-rater agreement statistic was calculated, and the κ value was interpreted according to Altman's criteria for computed tomography angiography measurements. The rate of participation was constant (mean number of surgeons, 11; range, 9-15). Twenty-four complex TAAD cases were discussed for planning and operation during the study period. The interobserver reliability recorded was moderate (κ = 0.41-0.60) to good (κ = 0.61-0.80) for measurements of proximal and distal sealing and very good (κ = 0.81-1) for detection of any target vessel angulation >60 degrees, significant calcification (circumferential), and thrombus presence (>50%). The concordance for planning and therapeutic strategy among all participants was complete in 16 cases. In

  2. Burden of Disease Measured by Disability-Adjusted Life Years and a Disease Forecasting Time Series Model of Scrub Typhus in Laiwu, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Li-Ping; Liang, Si-Yuan; Wang, Xian-Jun; Li, Xiu-Jun; Wu, Yan-Ling; Ma, Wei

    2015-01-01

    Background Laiwu District is recognized as a hyper-endemic region for scrub typhus in Shandong Province, but the seriousness of this problem has been neglected in public health circles. Methodology/Principal Findings A disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) approach was adopted to measure the burden of scrub typhus in Laiwu, China during the period 2006 to 2012. A multiple seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model (SARIMA) was used to identify the most suitable forecasting model for scrub typhus in Laiwu. Results showed that the disease burden of scrub typhus is increasing yearly in Laiwu, and which is higher in females than males. For both females and males, DALY rates were highest for the 60–69 age group. Of all the SARIMA models tested, the SARIMA(2,1,0)(0,1,0)12 model was the best fit for scrub typhus cases in Laiwu. Human infections occurred mainly in autumn with peaks in October. Conclusions/Significance Females, especially those of 60 to 69 years of age, were at highest risk of developing scrub typhus in Laiwu, China. The SARIMA (2,1,0)(0,1,0)12 model was the best fit forecasting model for scrub typhus in Laiwu, China. These data are useful for developing public health education and intervention programs to reduce disease. PMID:25569248

  3. A prediction model for 5-year cardiac mortality in patients with chronic heart failure using {sup 123}I-metaiodobenzylguanidine imaging

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nakajima, Kenichi; Matsuo, Shinro [Kanazawa University Hospital, Department of Nuclear Medicine, Kanazawa (Japan); Nakata, Tomoaki [Sapporo Medical University School of Medicine, Second Department of Internal Medicine (Cardiology), Sapporo (Japan); Hakodate-Goryoukaku Hospital, Department of Cardiology, Hakodate (Japan); Yamada, Takahisa [Osaka Prefectural General Medical Center, Department of Cardiology, Osaka (Japan); Yamashina, Shohei [Toho University Omori Medical Center, Department of Cardiovascular Medicine, Tokyo (Japan); Momose, Mitsuru [Tokyo Women' s Medical University, Department of Nuclear Medicine, Tokyo (Japan); Kasama, Shu [Cardiovascular Hospital of Central Japan, Department of Cardiology, Shibukawa (Japan); Matsui, Toshiki [Social Insurance Shiga General Hospital, Department of Cardiology, Otsu (Japan); Travin, Mark I. [Albert Einstein Medical College, Department of Cardiology and Nuclear Medicine, Montefiore Medical Center, Bronx, NY (United States); Jacobson, Arnold F. [GE Healthcare, Medical Diagnostics, Princeton, NJ (United States)

    2014-09-15

    Prediction of mortality risk is important in the management of chronic heart failure (CHF). The aim of this study was to create a prediction model for 5-year cardiac death including assessment of cardiac sympathetic innervation using data from a multicenter cohort study in Japan. The original pooled database consisted of cohort studies from six sites in Japan. A total of 933 CHF patients who underwent {sup 123}I-metaiodobenzylguanidine (MIBG) imaging and whose 5-year outcomes were known were selected from this database. The late MIBG heart-to-mediastinum ratio (HMR) was used for quantification of cardiac uptake. Cox proportional hazard and logistic regression analyses were used to select appropriate variables for predicting 5-year cardiac mortality. The formula for predicting 5-year mortality was created using a logistic regression model. During the 5-year follow-up, 205 patients (22 %) died of a cardiac event including heart failure death, sudden cardiac death and fatal acute myocardial infarction (64 %, 30 % and 6 %, respectively). Multivariate logistic analysis selected four parameters, including New York Heart Association (NYHA) functional class, age, gender and left ventricular ejection fraction, without HMR (model 1) and five parameters with the addition of HMR (model 2). The net reclassification improvement analysis for all subjects was 13.8 % (p < 0.0001) by including HMR and its inclusion was most effective in the downward reclassification of low-risk patients. Nomograms for predicting 5-year cardiac mortality were created from the five-parameter regression model. Cardiac MIBG imaging had a significant additive value for predicting cardiac mortality. The prediction formula and nomograms can be used for risk stratifying in patients with CHF. (orig.)

  4. Modelling the potential impact of a sugar-sweetened beverage tax on stroke mortality, costs and health-adjusted life years in South Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mercy Manyema

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Stroke poses a growing human and economic burden in South Africa. Excess sugar consumption, especially from sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs, has been associated with increased obesity and stroke risk. Research shows that price increases for SSBs can influence consumption and modelling evidence suggests that taxing SSBs has the potential to reduce obesity and related diseases. This study estimates the potential impact of an SSB tax on stroke-related mortality, costs and health-adjusted life years in South Africa. Methods A proportional multi-state life table-based model was constructed in Microsoft Excel (2010. We used consumption data from the 2012 South African National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, previously published own and cross price elasticities of SSBs and energy balance equations to estimate changes in daily energy intake and BMI arising from increased SSB prices. Stroke relative risk, and prevalent years lived with disability estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study and modelled disease epidemiology estimates from a previous study, were used to estimate the effect of the BMI changes on the burden of stroke. Results Our model predicts that an SSB tax may avert approximately 72 000 deaths, 550 000 stroke-related health-adjusted life years and over ZAR5 billion, (USD400 million in health care costs over 20 years (USD296-576 million. Over 20 years, the number of incident stroke cases may be reduced by approximately 85 000 and prevalent cases by about 13 000. Conclusions Fiscal policy has the potential, as part of a multi-faceted approach, to mitigate the growing burden of stroke in South Africa and contribute to the achievement of the target set by the Department of Health to reduce relative premature mortality (less than 60 years from non-communicable diseases by the year 2020.

  5. The Effect of Teaching Model ‘Learning Cycles 5E’ toward Students’ Achievement in Learning Mathematic at X Years Class SMA Negeri 1 Banuhampu 2013/2014 Academic Year

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yeni, N.; Suryabayu, E. P.; Handayani, T.

    2017-02-01

    Based on the survey showed that mathematics teacher still dominated in teaching and learning process. The process of learning is centered on the teacher while the students only work based on instructions provided by the teacher without any creativity and activities that stimulate students to explore their potential. Realized the problem above the writer interested in finding the solution by applying teaching model ‘Learning Cycles 5E’. The purpose of his research is to know whether teaching model ‘Learning Cycles 5E’ is better than conventional teaching in teaching mathematic. The type of the research is quasi experiment by Randomized Control test Group Only Design. The population in this research were all X years class students. The sample is chosen randomly after doing normality, homogeneity test and average level of students’ achievement. As the sample of this research was X.7’s class as experiment class used teaching model learning cycles 5E and X.8’s class as control class used conventional teaching. The result showed us that the students achievement in the class that used teaching model ‘Learning Cycles 5E’ is better than the class which did not use the model.

  6. FMCSA Safety Program Effectiveness Measurement: Carrier Intervention Effectiveness Model (CIEM), Version 1.1 Report for Fiscal Year 2014 Interventions

    Science.gov (United States)

    2018-04-01

    The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA), in cooperation with the John A. Volpe National Transportation Systems Center (Volpe), has developed a quantitative model to measure the effectiveness of motor carrier interventions in terms of ...

  7. Repository seal materials performance for a SALT Repository Project 5-year code/model development plan: Draft

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1987-06-01

    This document describes an integrated laboratory testing and model development effort for the seal system for a high-level nuclear waste repository in salt. The testing and modeling efforts are designed to determine seal material response in the repository environment, to provide models of seal system components for performance assessment, and to assist in the development of seal system designs. A code/model development and performance analysis program will be performed to predict the short- and long-term response of seal materials and seal components. The results from these analyses will be used to support the material testing activities on this contract and to support performance assessment activities that are conducted in other parts of the Salt Repository Project (SRP). 48 refs., 15 figs., 4 tabs

  8. FMCSA safety program effectiveness measurement : Carrier Intervention Effectiveness Model (CIEM), Version 1.1, report for fiscal year 2013 interventions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-04-01

    The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA), in cooperation with the John A. Volpe National Transportation Systems Center (Volpe), has developed a quantitative model to measure the effectiveness of motor carrier interventions in terms of ...

  9. Developing groundwater flow and transport models for radioactive waste disposal - six years of experience from the INTRAVAL project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chapman, N.; Andersson, J.; Bogorinski, P.; Carrera, J.; Hadermann, J.; Hodgkinson, D.; Jackson, P.; Neretnieks, I.; Neuman, S.; Skagius, K.; Nicholson, T.; Chin-Fu Tsang; Voss, C.

    1995-01-01

    The validity of informations and the models used to make predictions is central to the credibility of a performance assessment for a radioactive waste repository. The INTRAVAL project has been set up to bring together users of models and regulatory agencies from many countries to share experience, to carry out comparison exercises, and to build an internationally accepted approach to develop and apply both the models and the approach to prediction. This paper outlines the methodology adopted to evaluate the 18 different test cases of phases 1 and 2 of the project and which concern hard fractured rocks, plastic clays, mixed sedimentary and unsaturated geological environments at many scales, with observations and interpretations on a very wide range of space and time scales. Modelling has been tested by multiple groups against real data and the project integrated exercise,s both in the field and at the laboratory, for various spatial scales. (J.S.). 7 refs., 1 tab

  10. An evaluation of Arctic cloud and radiation processes during the SHEBA year: simulation results from eight Arctic regional climate models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wyser, K.; Willen, U. [Rossby Centre, SMHI, Norrkoeping (Sweden); Jones, C.G.; Du, P.; Girard, E.; Laprise, R. [Universite du Quebec a Montreal, Canadian Regional Climate Modelling and Diagnostics Network, Montreal (Canada); Cassano, J.; Serreze, M.; Shaw, M.J. [University of Colorado, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences and Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Boulder, CO (United States); Christensen, J.H. [Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen (Denmark); Curry, J.A. [School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA (United States); Dethloff, K.; Rinke, A. [Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Research Unit, Potsdam (Germany); Haugen, J.-E.; Koeltzow, M. [Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo (Norway); Jacob, D.; Pfeifer, S. [Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg (Germany); Lynch, A. [Monash University, School of Geography and Environmental Science, Melbourne (Australia); Tjernstroem, M.; Zagar, M. [Stockholm University, Department of Meteorology, Stockholm (Sweden)

    2008-02-15

    Eight atmospheric regional climate models (RCMs) were run for the period September 1997 to October 1998 over the western Arctic Ocean. This period was coincident with the observational campaign of the Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean (SHEBA) project. The RCMs shared common domains, centred on the SHEBA observation camp, along with a common model horizontal resolution, but differed in their vertical structure and physical parameterizations. All RCMs used the same lateral and surface boundary conditions. Surface downwelling solar and terrestrial radiation, surface albedo, vertically integrated water vapour, liquid water path and cloud cover from each model are evaluated against the SHEBA observation data. Downwelling surface radiation, vertically integrated water vapour and liquid water path are reasonably well simulated at monthly and daily timescales in the model ensemble mean, but with considerable differences among individual models. Simulated surface albedos are relatively accurate in the winter season, but become increasingly inaccurate and variable in the melt season, thereby compromising the net surface radiation budget. Simulated cloud cover is more or less uncorrelated with observed values at the daily timescale. Even for monthly averages, many models do not reproduce the annual cycle correctly. The inter-model spread of simulated cloud-cover is very large, with no model appearing systematically superior. Analysis of the co-variability of terms controlling the surface radiation budget reveal some of the key processes requiring improved treatment in Arctic RCMs. Improvements in the parameterization of cloud amounts and surface albedo are most urgently needed to improve the overall performance of RCMs in the Arctic. (orig.)

  11. Understanding landscape dynamics over thousand years : combining field and model work : with case study in the Drakensberg foothill, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Temme, A.J.A.M.

    2008-01-01

    The title of this thesis is “Understanding landscape dynamics over thousands of years : combining field and model work, with a case study in the Drakensberg Foothills, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa”. As the title clearly states, the overall objective is an increased knowledge of landscape dynamics

  12. Failure-To-Thrive, Maltreatment and the Behavior and Development of 6-Year-Old Children from Low-Income, Urban Families: A Cumulative Risk Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerr, Mia A.; Black, Maureen M.; Krishnakumar, Ambika

    2000-01-01

    A cumulative risk model was used to examine the relationship among failure-to-thrive (FIT), maltreatment, and four aspects of children's development (cognitive performance, adaptive functioning at school, classroom behavior, and behavior at home) in 193 6-year-olds. Risk status was negatively associated with the four developmental outcomes.…

  13. How Art Works: The National Endowment for the Arts' Five-Year Research Agenda, with a System Map and Measurement Model. Appendix A & B

    Science.gov (United States)

    National Endowment for the Arts, 2012

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents two appendices supporting the "How Art Works: The National Endowment for the Arts' Five-Year Research Agenda, with a System Map and Measurement Model" report. In Appendix A, brief descriptions of relevant studies and datasets for each node in the "How Art Works" system map are presented. This appendix is meant to supply…

  14. 40 CFR 86.099-10 - Emission standards for 1999 and later model year Otto-cycle heavy-duty engines and vehicles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... model year Otto-cycle heavy-duty engines and vehicles. 86.099-10 Section 86.099-10 Protection of... to Otto-cycle engines used in such MDPVs, except as specified in subpart S of this part. The term... AND IN-USE HIGHWAY VEHICLES AND ENGINES General Provisions for Emission Regulations for 1977 and Later...

  15. Computer simulation model for the striped bass young-of-the-year population in the Hudson River. [Effects of entrainment and impingement at power plants on population dynamics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eraslan, A.H.; Van Winkle, W.; Sharp, R.D.; Christensen, S.W.; Goodyear, C.P.; Rush, R.M.; Fulkerson, W.

    1975-09-01

    This report presents a daily transient (tidal-averaged), longitudinally one-dimensional (cross-section-averaged) computer simulation model for the assessment of the entrainment and impingement impacts of power plant operations on young-of-the-year populations of the striped bass, Morone saxatilis, in the Hudson River.

  16. An Integrated Model of Academic Self-Concept Development: Academic Self-Concept, Grades, Test Scores, and Tracking over 6 Years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marsh, Herbert W.; Pekrun, Reinhard; Murayama, Kou; Arens, A. Katrin; Parker, Philip D.; Guo, Jiesi; Dicke, Theresa

    2018-01-01

    Our newly proposed integrated academic self-concept model integrates 3 major theories of academic self-concept formation and developmental perspectives into a unified conceptual and methodological framework. Relations among math self-concept (MSC), school grades, test scores, and school-level contextual effects over 6 years, from the end of…

  17. Between-year survival and rank transitions in male Black-capped Chickadees (Poecile atricapillus) : A multistate modeling approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schubert, Kristin A.; Mennill, Daniel J.; Ramsay, Scott M.; Otter, Ken A.; Ratcliffe, Laurene M.; Kraus, Cornelia

    In dominance-structured animal societies, variation in individual fitness is often related to social status. Like many passerine birds, Black-capped Chickadees (Poecile atricapillus) have a short average adult life-expectancy (similar to 2 years); however, the maximum recorded life span is >5x as

  18. Academic Performance of First-Year Students at a College of Pharmacy in East Tennessee: Models for Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clavier, Cheri Whitehead

    2013-01-01

    With the increase of students applying to pharmacy programs, it is imperative that admissions committees choose appropriate measures to analyze student readiness. The purpose of this research was to identify significant factors that predict the academic performance, defined as grade point average (GPA) at the end of the first professional year, of…

  19. Modeling Developmental Changes in Functional Capacities and Soccer-Specific Skills in Male Players Aged 11-17 Years

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Valente-dos-Santos, Joao; Coelho-e-Silva, Manuel J.; Simoes, Filipe; Figueiredo, Antonio J.; Leite, Neiva; Elferink-Gemser, Marije T.; Malina, Robert M.; Sherar, Lauren

    2012-01-01

    This study evaluates the contributions of age. growth, skeletal maturation, playing position and training to longitudinal changes in functional and skill performance in male youth soccer. Players were annually followed over 5 years (n = 83, 4.4 measurements per player). Composite scores for

  20. Atmospheric Modeling of the Martian Polar Regions: One Mars Year of CRISM EPF Observations of the South Pole

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, A. J.; Wolff, M. J.

    2009-03-01

    We have used CRISM Emission Phase Function gimballed observations to investigate atmospheric dust/ice opacity and surface albedo in the south polar region for the first Mars year of MRO operations. This covers the MY28 "dust event" and cap recession.

  1. Evaluation of the rusle and disturbed wepp erosion models for predicting soil loss in the first year after wildfire in NW Spain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernández, Cristina; Vega, José A

    2018-05-04

    Severe fire greatly increases soil erosion rates and overland-flow in forest land. Soil erosion prediction models are essential for estimating fire impacts and planning post-fire emergency responses. We evaluated the performance of a) the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE), modified by inclusion of an alternative equation for the soil erodibility factor, and b) the Disturbed WEPP model, by comparing the soil loss predicted by the models and the soil loss measured in the first year after wildfire in 44 experimental field plots in NW Spain. The Disturbed WEPP has not previously been validated with field data for use in NW Spain; validation studies are also very scarce in other areas. We found that both models underestimated the erosion rates. The accuracy of the RUSLE model was low, even after inclusion of a modified soil erodibility factor accounting for high contents of soil organic matter. We conclude that neither model is suitable for predicting soil erosion in the first year after fire in NW Spain and suggest that soil burn severity should be given greater weighting in post-fire soil erosion modelling. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Conceptual and numerical models of groundwater flow in the Ogallala aquifer in Gregory and Tripp Counties, South Dakota, water years 1985--2009

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Kyle W.; Putnam, Larry D.

    2013-01-01

    The Ogallala aquifer is an important water resource for the Rosebud Sioux Tribe in Gregory and Tripp Counties in south-central South Dakota and is used for irrigation, public supply, domestic, and stock water supplies. To better understand groundwater flow in the Ogallala aquifer, conceptual and numerical models of groundwater flow were developed for the aquifer. A conceptual model of the Ogallala aquifer was used to analyze groundwater flow and develop a numerical model to simulate groundwater flow in the aquifer. The MODFLOW–NWT model was used to simulate transient groundwater conditions for water years 1985–2009. The model was calibrated using statistical parameter estimation techniques. Potential future scenarios were simulated using the input parameters from the calibrated model for simulations of potential future drought and future increased pumping. Transient simulations were completed with the numerical model. A 200-year transient initialization period was used to establish starting conditions for the subsequent 25-year simulation of water years 1985–2009. The 25-year simulation was discretized into three seasonal stress periods per year and used to simulate transient conditions. A single-layer model was used to simulate flow and mass balance in the Ogallala aquifer with a grid of 133 rows and 282 columns and a uniform spacing of 500 meters (1,640 feet). Regional inflow and outflow were simulated along the western and southern boundaries using specified-head cells. All other boundaries were simulated using no-flow cells. Recharge to the aquifer occurs through precipitation on the outcrop area. Model calibration was accomplished using the Parameter Estimation (PEST) program that adjusted individual model input parameters and assessed the difference between estimated and model-simulated values of hydraulic head and base flow. This program was designed to estimate parameter values that are statistically the most likely set of values to result in the

  3. Surface ozone pollution in Poland - observations and modelling support for a two-year assessment 2012-2013

    Science.gov (United States)

    Struzewska, Joanna; Kaminski, Jacek W.; Durka, Pawel

    2015-04-01

    The concentrations of near-surface ozone in terms of long term objectives and target values are exceeded at many monitoring sites in Poland. At the request of the Chief Inspectorate of Environmental Protection, an assessment of ozone impact on human health and ecosystems in Poland was undertaken, based on the GEM-AQ model calculations for the period 2012-2013. GEM-AQ (Kaminski et al., 2008) is a comprehensive chemical weather model where air quality processes (chemistry and aerosols) are implemented on-line in the operational weather prediction model developed at Environment Canada (Cote et al., 1998). For this project the model was run in a self-nesting mode with the target grid centered over Poland with the resolution of 5 km. The EMEP emission inventory was refined based on GIS information. Modelling results were evaluated against ozone and NO2 measurements from available monitoring stations in Poland using the DeltaTool developed in the scope of FAIRMODE. We will present exposure levels to high ozone concentrations in terms of number of days with exceeded target values as well as indices AOT40 and SOMO35. Differences between exposure diagnostics in 2012 and 2013 will be discussed.

  4. Using the Continuum of Design Modelling Techniques to Aid the Development of CAD Modeling Skills in First Year Industrial Design Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Storer, I. J.; Campbell, R. I.

    2012-01-01

    Industrial Designers need to understand and command a number of modelling techniques to communicate their ideas to themselves and others. Verbal explanations, sketches, engineering drawings, computer aided design (CAD) models and physical prototypes are the most commonly used communication techniques. Within design, unlike some disciplines,…

  5. Sixty years of broken symmetries in quantum physics (from the Bogoliubov theory of superfluidity to the Standard Model)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shirkov, Dmitrii V

    2009-01-01

    This is a retrospective historical review of the ideas that led to the concept of the spontaneous symmetry breaking (SSB), the issue that has been implemented in quantum field theory in the form of the Higgs mechanism. The key stages covered include: the Bogoliubov microscopic theory of superfluidity (1946); the Bardeen-Cooper-Schrieffer-Bogoliubov microscopic theory of superconductivity (1957); superconductivity as superfluidity of Cooper pairs (Bogoliubov, 1958); the extension of the SSB concept to simple quantum field models (early 1960s); triumph of the Higgs model in electroweak theory (early 1980s). The role and status of the Higgs mechanism in the current Standard Model are discussed. (oral issue of the journal 'uspekhi fizicheskikh nauk')

  6. Comparison of Bayesian network and support vector machine models for two-year survival prediction in lung cancer patients treated with radiotherapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jayasurya, K.; Fung, G.; Yu, S.; Dehing-Oberije, C.; De Ruysscher, D.; Hope, A.; De Neve, W.; Lievens, Y.; Lambin, P.; Dekker, A. L. A. J.

    2010-01-01

    Purpose: Classic statistical and machine learning models such as support vector machines (SVMs) can be used to predict cancer outcome, but often only perform well if all the input variables are known, which is unlikely in the medical domain. Bayesian network (BN) models have a natural ability to reason under uncertainty and might handle missing data better. In this study, the authors hypothesize that a BN model can predict two-year survival in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients as accurately as SVM, but will predict survival more accurately when data are missing. Methods: A BN and SVM model were trained on 322 inoperable NSCLC patients treated with radiotherapy from Maastricht and validated in three independent data sets of 35, 47, and 33 patients from Ghent, Leuven, and Toronto. Missing variables occurred in the data set with only 37, 28, and 24 patients having a complete data set. Results: The BN model structure and parameter learning identified gross tumor volume size, performance status, and number of positive lymph nodes on a PET as prognostic factors for two-year survival. When validated in the full validation set of Ghent, Leuven, and Toronto, the BN model had an AUC of 0.77, 0.72, and 0.70, respectively. A SVM model based on the same variables had an overall worse performance (AUC 0.71, 0.68, and 0.69) especially in the Ghent set, which had the highest percentage of missing the important GTV size data. When only patients with complete data sets were considered, the BN and SVM model performed more alike. Conclusions: Within the limitations of this study, the hypothesis is supported that BN models are better at handling missing data than SVM models and are therefore more suitable for the medical domain. Future works have to focus on improving the BN performance by including more patients, more variables, and more diversity.

  7. Artificial neural networks versus proportional hazards Cox models to predict 45-year all-cause mortality in the Italian Rural Areas of the Seven Countries Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Puddu Paolo

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Projection pursuit regression, multilayer feed-forward networks, multivariate adaptive regression splines and trees (including survival trees have challenged classic multivariable models such as the multiple logistic function, the proportional hazards life table Cox model (Cox, the Poisson’s model, and the Weibull’s life table model to perform multivariable predictions. However, only artificial neural networks (NN have become popular in medical applications. Results We compared several Cox versus NN models in predicting 45-year all-cause mortality (45-ACM by 18 risk factors selected a priori: age; father life status; mother life status; family history of cardiovascular diseases; job-related physical activity; cigarette smoking; body mass index (linear and quadratic terms; arm circumference; mean blood pressure; heart rate; forced expiratory volume; serum cholesterol; corneal arcus; diagnoses of cardiovascular diseases, cancer and diabetes; minor ECG abnormalities at rest. Two Italian rural cohorts of the Seven Countries Study, made up of men aged 40 to 59 years, enrolled and first examined in 1960 in Italy. Cox models were estimated by: a forcing all factors; b a forward-; and c a backward-stepwise procedure. Observed cases of deaths and of survivors were computed in decile classes of estimated risk. Forced and stepwise NN were run and compared by C-statistics (ROC analysis with the Cox models. Out of 1591 men, 1447 died. Model global accuracies were extremely high by all methods (ROCs > 0.810 but there was no clear-cut superiority of any model to predict 45-ACM. The highest ROCs (> 0.838 were observed by NN. There were inter-model variations to select predictive covariates: whereas all models concurred to define the role of 10 covariates (mainly cardiovascular risk factors, family history, heart rate and minor ECG abnormalities were not contributors by Cox models but were so by forced NN. Forced expiratory volume and arm

  8. Transfer of Problem Solving Skills from Touchscreen to 3D Model by 3- to 6-Year-Olds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tarasuik, Joanne; Demaria, Ana; Kaufman, Jordy

    2017-01-01

    Although much published research purports that young children struggle to solve problems from screen-based media and to transfer learning from a virtual to a physical modality, Huber et al. (2016)'s recent study on children solving the Tower of Hanoi (ToH) problem on a touchscreen app offers a clear counter example. Huber et al. (2016) reported that children transferred learning from media to the physical world. As this finding arguably differs from that of prior research in this area, the current study tests whether the Huber et al. (2016) results could be replicated. Additionally, we extended the scope of the Huber et al. (2016) work by testing a broader age range, including children as young as 3 years, and using a culturally distinct participant pool. The results of the current study verified Huber et al.'s (2016) conclusion that 4- to 6-year-old children are capable of transferring the ToH learning from touchscreen devices to the physical version of the puzzle. Children under 4 years of age, in contrast, showed little ability to improve at the ToH problem regardless of the practice modality-suggesting that a different problem-solving task is required to probe very young children's ability to learn from touchscreen apps.

  9. A new method of modelling early plasma creatinine changes predicts 1-year graft function after kidney transplantation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Krogstrup, Nicoline V; Bibby, Bo Martin; Aulbjerg, Camilla

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Delayed graft function after renal transplantation is associated with inferior long-term outcome. To evaluate the impact of slow onset graft function, we aimed to model and correlate early changes in plasma creatinine (p-cr) with long-term graft function. MATERIALS: In a single centre...

  10. Application of Strategic Institutional-Information Technology Alignment Model in Four-Year Institutions of Higher Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lach-Smith, Barbara

    2010-01-01

    This study examined an existing corporate model of business-information technology alignment for application in higher education and tested the findings by surveying executive and technology leaders in higher education. The purpose of this study was to gain a better understanding of the factors that impact alignment between institutional strategic…

  11. Effect of 5E Instructional Model in Student Success in Primary School 6th Year Circulatory System Topic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cardak, Osman; Dikmenli, Musa; Saritas, Ozge

    2008-01-01

    The aim of this study is to research the effect of the 5E instructional model on primary (sixth grade) student success during the circulatory system unit. This study was conducted with 38 students in two different classes by the same researcher in 2006-2007. One of the classes was assigned as the control group and the other as the experimental…

  12. The Job Demands-Job Control Model and absence behaviour : results of a 3-year longitudinal study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Smulders, P.G.W.; Nijhuis, F.J.N.

    1999-01-01

    Empirical results of earlier studies only marginally supported the relevance of Karasek's Job Demands-Job Control Model for absence behaviour. Since longitudinal studies with respect to these relations were largely lacking, a four-wave panel study was carried out using data from 1755 male employees

  13. A Multi-Year Study of the Impact of the Rice Model Teacher Professional Development on Elementary Science Teachers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diaconu, Dana Viorica; Radigan, Judy; Suskavcevic, Milijana; Nichol, Carolyn

    2012-01-01

    A teacher professional development program for in-service elementary school science teachers, the Rice Elementary Model Science Lab (REMSL), was developed for urban school districts serving predominately high-poverty, high-minority students. Teachers with diverse skills and science capacities came together in Professional Learning Communities, one…

  14. Language, motor and cognitive development of extremely preterm children: modeling individual growth trajectories over the first three years of life.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sansavini, Alessandra; Pentimonti, Jill; Justice, Laura; Guarini, Annalisa; Savini, Silvia; Alessandroni, Rosina; Faldella, Giacomo

    2014-01-01

    Survival rate of extremely low gestational age (ELGA) newborns has increased over 80% in the last 15 years, but its consequences on the short- and longer-term developmental competencies may be severe. The aim of this study was to describe growth trajectories of linguistic, motor and cognitive skills among ELGA children, compared to full-term (FT) peers, from the first to the third year of life, a crucial period for development. Growth curve analysis was used to examine individual and group differences in terms of initial status at 12 months and rate of growth through the second and the third year of life with five points of assessment. Twenty-eight monolingual Italian children, of whom 17 were ELGA (mean GA 25.7 weeks) and 11 were FT children, were assessed through the BSID-III at 12, 18, 24, 30 and 36 months for language skills and at 12, 24 and 30 months for motor and cognitive skills. ELGA children presented significantly lower scores than FT peers in language, motor and cognitive skills and they did not overcome their disadvantage by 3 years, even if their corrected age was taken into account. Concerning growth curves, in motor development a significant increasing divergence was found showing a Matthew effect with the preterm sample falling further behind the FT sample. In linguistic and cognitive development, instead, a stable gap between the two samples was found. In addition, great inter-individual differences in rate of change were observed for language development in both samples. Our findings highlight the theoretical and clinical relevance of analyzing, through growth curve analyses, the developmental trajectories of ELGA children in language skills taking into account their inter-individual variability also across motor and cognitive domains. After reading this article, the reader will interpret: (a) characteristics and growth trajectories of ELGA children from the first to the third year of life with respect to FT children in language, motor and

  15. Multilevel model to estimate county-level untreated dental caries among US children aged 6-9years using the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Mei; Zhang, Xingyou; Holt, James B; Robison, Valerie; Li, Chien-Hsun; Griffin, Susan O

    2018-06-01

    Because conducting population-based oral health screening is resource intensive, oral health data at small-area levels (e.g., county-level) are not commonly available. We applied the multilevel logistic regression and poststratification method to estimate county-level prevalence of untreated dental caries among children aged 6-9years in the United States using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2005-2010 linked with various area-level data at census tract, county and state levels. We validated model-based national estimates against direct estimates from NHANES. We also compared model-based estimates with direct estimates from select State Oral Health Surveys (SOHS) at state and county levels. The model with individual-level covariates only and the model with individual-, census tract- and county-level covariates explained 7.2% and 96.3% respectively of overall county-level variation in untreated caries. Model-based county-level prevalence estimates ranged from 4.9% to 65.2% with median of 22.1%. The model-based national estimate (19.9%) matched the NHANES direct estimate (19.8%). We found significantly positive correlations between model-based estimates for 8-year-olds and direct estimates from the third-grade State Oral Health Surveys (SOHS) at state level for 34 states (Pearson coefficient: 0.54, P=0.001) and SOHS estimates at county level for 53 New York counties (Pearson coefficient: 0.38, P=0.006). This methodology could be a useful tool to characterize county-level disparities in untreated dental caries among children aged 6-9years and complement oral health surveillance to inform public health programs especially when local-level data are not available although the lack of external validation due to data unavailability should be acknowledged. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  16. Tailoring Breast Cancer Screening Intervals by Breast Density and Risk for Women Aged 50 Years or Older: Collaborative Modeling of Screening Outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trentham-Dietz, Amy; Kerlikowske, Karla; Stout, Natasha K; Miglioretti, Diana L; Schechter, Clyde B; Ergun, Mehmet Ali; van den Broek, Jeroen J; Alagoz, Oguzhan; Sprague, Brian L; van Ravesteyn, Nicolien T; Near, Aimee M; Gangnon, Ronald E; Hampton, John M; Chandler, Young; de Koning, Harry J; Mandelblatt, Jeanne S; Tosteson, Anna N A

    2016-11-15

    Biennial screening is generally recommended for average-risk women aged 50 to 74 years, but tailored screening may provide greater benefits. To estimate outcomes for various screening intervals after age 50 years based on breast density and risk for breast cancer. Collaborative simulation modeling using national incidence, breast density, and screening performance data. United States. Women aged 50 years or older with various combinations of breast density and relative risk (RR) of 1.0, 1.3, 2.0, or 4.0. Annual, biennial, or triennial digital mammography screening from ages 50 to 74 years (vs. no screening) and ages 65 to 74 years (vs. biennial digital mammography from ages 50 to 64 years). Lifetime breast cancer deaths, life expectancy and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), false-positive mammograms, benign biopsy results, overdiagnosis, cost-effectiveness, and ratio of false-positive results to breast cancer deaths averted. Screening benefits and overdiagnosis increase with breast density and RR. False-positive mammograms and benign results on biopsy decrease with increasing risk. Among women with fatty breasts or scattered fibroglandular density and an RR of 1.0 or 1.3, breast cancer deaths averted were similar for triennial versus biennial screening for both age groups (50 to 74 years, median of 3.4 to 5.1 vs. 4.1 to 6.5 deaths averted; 65 to 74 years, median of 1.5 to 2.1 vs. 1.8 to 2.6 deaths averted). Breast cancer deaths averted increased with annual versus biennial screening for women aged 50 to 74 years at all levels of breast density and an RR of 4.0, and those aged 65 to 74 years with heterogeneously or extremely dense breasts and an RR of 4.0. However, harms were almost 2-fold higher. Triennial screening for the average-risk subgroup and annual screening for the highest-risk subgroup cost less than $100 000 per QALY gained. Models did not consider women younger than 50 years, those with an RR less than 1, or other imaging methods. Average-risk women

  17. Computer Modeling of Hydrology, Weathering, and Isotopic Fractionation in Andrews Creek, Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado for Water Years 1992 through 2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webb, R. M. T.; Parkhurst, D. L.; Mast, A.; Clow, D. W.

    2014-12-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) Water, Energy, and Biogeochemical Model (WEBMOD) was used to simulate hydrology, weathering, and isotopic fractionation in the 1.7 square kilometer Andrews Creek alpine watershed. WEBMOD includes hydrologic modules derived from the USGS Precipitation Runoff Modeling System, the National Weather Service Hydro-17 snow model, and TOPMODEL. PHREEQC, a geochemical reaction model, is coupled with the hydrologic model to simulate the geochemical evolution of waters as they evaporate, mix, and react within the landscape. Major solute concentrations and δ18O were modeled over the period 1992-2012. Variations of chloride and inorganic nitrogen respond almost entirely to variations in atmospheric deposition and preferential elution of snowpack. Both evaporation and melting result in isotopic enrichment of heavy isotopes in the residual snowpack throughout the summer. Magnesium and potassium, derived mostly from weathering with some atmospheric inputs, vary seasonally with uptake during the growing season and release during the fall and winter. The weathering of granitic minerals—oligoclase, biotite, chlorite, pyrite, calcite, and formation of secondary minerals—kaolinite, goethite, gibbsite, and smectite-illite—were selected as primary reactions based on mole-balance modeling of basin outflows. The rates of these reactions were quantified by calibrating WEBMOD to match observed concentrations and loads. Exported annual loads of most weathering products are highly correlated with discharge, whereas silica loads are less correlated with discharge, suggesting a source that is more active during dry years and less active during wet years. Potential sources include net dissolution of kaolinite and smectite-illite or mineralization of colloids with high silica content. WEBMOD is a valuable tool for simulating water quality variations in response to climate change, acid mine drainage, acid rain, biological transformations, and other

  18. Simulated climate change during the last 1,000 years: comparing the ECHO-G general circulation model with the MAGICC simple climate model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Osborn, Timothy J.; Briffa, Keith R. [University of East Anglia, Climatic Research Unit, School of Environmental Sciences, Norwich (United Kingdom); Raper, Sarah C.B. [University of East Anglia, Climatic Research Unit, School of Environmental Sciences, Norwich (United Kingdom); Manchester Metropolitan University, Dalton Research Institute, Manchester (United Kingdom)

    2006-08-15

    An intercomparison of eight climate simulations, each driven with estimated natural and anthropogenic forcings for the last millennium, indicates that the so-called ''Erik'' simulation of the ECHO-G coupled ocean-atmosphere climate model exhibits atypical behaviour. The ECHO-G simulation has a much stronger cooling trend from 1000 to 1700 and a higher rate of warming since 1800 than the other simulations, with the result that the overall amplitude of millennial-scale temperature variations in the ECHO-G simulation is much greater than in the other models. The MAGICC (Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse-gas-Induced Climate Change) simple climate model is used to investigate possible causes of this atypical behaviour. It is shown that disequilibrium in the initial conditions probably contributes spuriously to the cooling trend in the early centuries of the simulation, and that the omission of tropospheric sulphate aerosol forcing is the likely explanation for the anomalously large recent warming. The simple climate model results are used to adjust the ECHO-G Erik simulation to mitigate these effects, which brings the simulation into better agreement with the other seven models considered here and greatly reduces the overall range of temperature variations during the last millennium simulated by ECHO-G. Smaller inter-model differences remain which can probably be explained by a combination of the particular forcing histories and model sensitivities of each experiment. These have not been investigated here, though we have diagnosed the effective climate sensitivity of ECHO-G to be 2.39{+-}0.11 K for a doubling of CO{sub 2}. (orig.)

  19. Estimation of sexual behavior in the 18-to-24-years-old Iranian youth based on a crosswise model study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vakilian, Katayon; Mousavi, Seyed Abbas; Keramat, Afsaneh

    2014-01-13

    In many countries, negative social attitude towards sensitive issues such as sexual behavior has resulted in false and invalid data concerning this issue.This is an analytical cross-sectional study, in which a total number of 1500 single students from universities of Shahroud City were sampled using a multi stage technique. The students were assured that their information disclosed for the researcher will be treated as private and confidential. The results were analyzed using crosswise model, Crosswise Regression, T-test and Chi-square tests. It seems that the prevalence of sexual behavior among Iranian youth is 41% (CI = 36-53). Findings showed that estimation sexual relationship in Iranian single youth is high. Thus, devising training models according to the Islamic-Iranian culture is necessary in order to prevent risky sexual behavior.

  20. Two-year concurrent observation of isoprene at 20 sites over China: comparison with MEGAN-REAM model simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Y.; Yang, W.; Zhang, R.; Zhang, Z.; Lyu, S.; Yu, J.; Wang, Y.; Wang, G.; Wang, X.

    2017-12-01

    Isoprene, the most abundant non-methane hydrocarbon emitted from plants, directly and indirectly affects atmospheric photochemistry and radiative forcing, yet narrowing its emission uncertainties is a continuous challenge. Comparison of observed and modelled isoprene on large spatiotemporal scales would help recognize factors that control isoprene variability, systematic field observation data are however quite lacking. Here we collected ambient air samples with 1 L silonite-treated stainless steel canisters simultaneously at 20 sites over China on every Wednesday at approximately 14:00 pm Beijing time from 2012 to 2014, and analyzed isoprene mixing ratios by preconcentrator-GC-MSD/FID. Observed isoprene mixing ratios were also compared with that simulated by coupling MEGAN 2.0 (Guenther et al., 2006) with a 3-D Regional chEmical trAnsport Model (REAM) (Zhang et al., 2017). Similar seasonal variations between observation and model simulation were obtained for most of sampling sites, but overall the average isoprene mixing ratios during growing months (May to October) was 0.37 ± 0.08 ppbv from model simulation, about 32% lower than that of 0.54 ± 0.20 ppbv based on ground-based observation, and this discrepancy was particularly significant in north China during wintertime. Further investigation demonstrated that emission of biogenic isoprene in northwest China might be underestimated and non-biogenic emission, such burning biomass/biofuel, might contribute to the elevated levels of isoprene during winter time. The observation-based empirical formulas for changing isoprene emission with solar radiation and temperature were also derived for different regions of China.

  1. Insights into the latent multinomial model through mark-resight data on female grizzly bears with cubs-of-the-year

    Science.gov (United States)

    Higgs, Megan D.; Link, William; White, Gary C.; Haroldson, Mark A.; Bjornlie, Daniel D.

    2013-01-01

    Mark-resight designs for estimation of population abundance are common and attractive to researchers. However, inference from such designs is very limited when faced with sparse data, either from a low number of marked animals, a low probability of detection, or both. In the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, yearly mark-resight data are collected for female grizzly bears with cubs-of-the-year (FCOY), and inference suffers from both limitations. To overcome difficulties due to sparseness, we assume homogeneity in sighting probabilities over 16 years of bi-annual aerial surveys. We model counts of marked and unmarked animals as multinomial random variables, using the capture frequencies of marked animals for inference about the latent multinomial frequencies for unmarked animals. We discuss undesirable behavior of the commonly used discrete uniform prior distribution on the population size parameter and provide OpenBUGS code for fitting such models. The application provides valuable insights into subtleties of implementing Bayesian inference for latent multinomial models. We tie the discussion to our application, though the insights are broadly useful for applications of the latent multinomial model.

  2. Reduction of CO2 emission by INCAM model in Malaysia biomass power plants during the year 2016.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amin, Nor Aishah Saidina; Talebian-Kiakalaieh, Amin

    2018-03-01

    As the world's second largest palm oil producer and exporter, Malaysia could capitalize on its oil palm biomass waste for power generation. The emission factors from this renewable energy source are far lower than that of fossil fuels. This study applies an integrated carbon accounting and mitigation (INCAM) model to calculate the amount of CO 2 emissions from two biomass thermal power plants. The CO 2 emissions released from biomass plants utilizing empty fruit bunch (EFB) and palm oil mill effluent (POME), as alternative fuels for powering steam and gas turbines, were determined using the INCAM model. Each section emitting CO 2 in the power plant, known as the carbon accounting center (CAC), was measured for its carbon profile (CP) and carbon index (CI). The carbon performance indicator (CPI) included electricity, fuel and water consumption, solid waste and waste-water generation. The carbon emission index (CEI) and carbon emission profile (CEP), based on the total monthly carbon production, were determined across the CPI. Various innovative strategies resulted in a 20%-90% reduction of CO 2 emissions. The implementation of reduction strategies significantly reduced the CO 2 emission levels. Based on the model, utilization of EFB and POME in the facilities could significantly reduce the CO 2 emissions and increase the potential for waste to energy initiatives. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. In Vitro Assessment of Spray Deposition Patterns in a Pediatric (12 Year-Old) Nasal Cavity Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sawant, Namita; Donovan, Maureen D

    2018-03-26

    Nasal sprays available for the treatment of cold and allergy symptoms currently use identical formulations and devices for adults as well as for children. Due to the obvious differences between the nasal airway dimensions of a child and those of an adult, the performance of nasal sprays in children was evaluated. Deposition patterns of nasal sprays administered to children were tested using a nasal cast based on MRI images obtained from a 12 year old child's nasal cavity. Test formulations emitting a range of spray patterns were investigated by actuating the device into the pediatric nasal cast under controlled conditions. The results showed that the nasal sprays impacted in the anterior region of the 12 year old child's nasal cavity, and only limited spray entered the turbinate region - the effect site for most topical drugs and the primary absorptive region for systemically absorbed drugs. Differences in deposition patterns following the administration of nasal sprays to adults and children may lead to differences in efficacy between these populations. Greater anterior deposition in children may result in decreased effectiveness, greater anterior dosage form loss, and the increased potential for patient non-compliance.

  4. Simulated root dynamics of a 160-year-old sugar maple (Acer saccharum Marsh.) tree with and without ozone exposure using the TREGRO model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Retzlaff, W. A.; Weinstein, D. A.; Laurence, J. A.; Gollands, B.

    1996-01-01

    Because of difficulties in directly assessing root responses of mature forest trees exposed to atmospheric pollutants, we have used the model TREGRO to analyze the effects of a 3- and a 10-year exposure to ozone (O(3)) on root dynamics of a simulated 160-year-old sugar maple (Acer saccharum Marsh.) tree. We used existing phenological, allometric, and growth data to parameterize TREGRO to produce a simulated 160-year-old tree. Simulations were based on literature values for sugar maple fine root production and senescence and the photosynthetic responses of sugar maple seedlings exposed to O(3) in open-top chambers. In the simulated 3-year exposure to O(3), 2 x ambient atmospheric O(3) concentrations reduced net carbon (C) gain of the 160-year-old tree. This reduction occurred in the C storage pools (total nonstructural carbohydrate, TNC), with most of the reduction occurring in coarse (woody) roots. Total fine root production and senescence were unaffected by the simulated 3-year exposure to O(3). However, extending the simulated O(3) exposure period to 10 years depleted the TNC pools of the coarse roots and reduced total fine root production. Similar reductions in TNC pools have been observed in forest-grown sugar maple trees exhibiting symptoms of stress. We conclude that modeling can aid in evaluating the belowground response of mature forest trees to atmospheric pollution stress and could indicate the potential for gradual deterioration of tree health under conditions of long-term stress, a situation similar to that underlying the decline of sugar maple trees.

  5. Development and External Validation of Prognostic Model for 2-Year Survival of Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer Patients Treated With Chemoradiotherapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dehing-Oberije, Cary; Yu Shipeng; De Ruysscher, Dirk; Meersschout, Sabine; Van Beek, Karen; Lievens, Yolande; Van Meerbeeck, Jan; De Neve, Wilfried; Rao, Bharat Ph.D.; Weide, Hiska van der; Lambin, Philippe

    2009-01-01

    Purpose: Radiotherapy, combined with chemotherapy, is the treatment of choice for a large group of non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients. Recent developments in the treatment of these patients have led to improved survival. However, the clinical TNM stage is highly inaccurate for the prediction of survival, and alternatives are lacking. The objective of this study was to develop and validate a prediction model for survival of NSCLC patients, treated with chemoradiotherapy. Patients and Methods: The clinical data from 377 consecutive inoperable NSCLC patients, Stage I-IIIB, treated radically with chemoradiotherapy were collected. A prognostic model for 2-year survival was developed, using 2-norm support vector machines. The performance of the model was expressed as the area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic and assessed using leave-one-out cross-validation, as well as two external data sets. Results: The final multivariate model consisted of gender, World Health Organization performance status, forced expiratory volume in 1 s, number of positive lymph node stations, and gross tumor volume. The area under the curve, assessed by leave-one-out cross-validation, was 0.74, and application of the model to the external data sets yielded an area under the curve of 0.75 and 0.76. A high- and low-risk group could be clearly identified using a risk score based on the model. Conclusion: The multivariate model performed very well and was able to accurately predict the 2-year survival of NSCLC patients treated with chemoradiotherapy. The model could support clinicians in the treatment decision-making process.

  6. An EGS4-ready tomographic computational model of a 14-year-old female torso for calculating organ doses from CT examinations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Caon, M.; School of Physics and Electronic Systems Engineering, University of South Australia, The Levels Campus, Mawson Lakes, South Australia, 5095; Pattison, J.

    1999-01-01

    Fifty-four consecutive CT scans have been used to construct a tomographic computational model of a 14-year-old female torso suitable for the determination of organ doses from CT. The model, known as ADELAIDE, is in the form of an input file compatible with user codes based on XYZDOS.MOR from the readily available EGS4 Monte Carlo radiation transport code. ADELAIDE's dimensions are close to the Australian averages for her age so the model is representative of a 14-year-old girl. The realistic anatomy in the model differs considerably from that in Cristy's 15-year-old mathematical computational model by having realistically shaped organs that are appropriately located within a real external contour. Average absorbed dose to organs from simulated CT examinations of the chest and abdomen have been calculated for ADELAIDE using EGS4 within a geometry specific to the General Electric Hi-Speed Advantage CT scanner and using an x-ray spectrum calculated using data from the scanner's x-ray tube. The simulations include the scanner's beam shaping filter and patient table. It is suggested that the resulting values have fewer possible sources of uncertainty than organ doses derived from dose coefficients calculated for a MIRD style model with mathematical anatomy and a spectrum that may not match that of the scanner. The organ doses were normalized using the scanner's CTDI measured free-in-air and an EGS4 simulation of the CTDI measurement. Effective dose to the torso from 26-slice chest and 24-slice abdomen examinations (at 120 kV, 200 mAs, 7 mm slices) is 4.6±0.1mSv and 4.3±0.1mSv respectively. (author)

  7. Poverty as a Predictor of 4-Year-Olds’ Executive Function: New Perspectives on Models of Differential Susceptibility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raver, C. Cybele; Blair, Clancy; Willoughby, Michael

    2017-01-01

    In a predominantly low-income, population-based longitudinal sample of 1,259 children followed from birth, results suggest that chronic exposure to poverty and the strains of financial hardship were each uniquely predictive of young children’s performance on measures of executive functioning. Results suggest that temperament-based vulnerability serves as a statistical moderator of the link between poverty-related risk and children’s executive functioning. Implications for models of ecology and biology in shaping the development of children’s self-regulation are discussed. PMID:22563675

  8. [Epidemiology of homicides in Cali, Colombia, 1993-1998: six years of a population-based model].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Concha-Eastman, Alberto; Espitia, Victoria E; Espinosa, Rafael; Guerrero, Rodrigo

    2002-10-01

    To demonstrate the usefulness of an effective and timely information model, underscore the seriousness of the problem of homicides, and point out the need to apply this type of model as well as comprehensive prevention projects, such as Desarrollo, Seguridad y Paz (DESESPAZ). From 1993 to 1998, 11 457 homicides were registered in Cali, Colombia, through an epidemiological surveillance model established under DESESPAZ by the mayor's office in Cali. Beginning in January 1993, a work group organized by DESESPAZ reviewed and standardized the variables that different institutions gathered about the victims, their assailants, and the facts surrounding each case, and issued a weekly summary bulletin for the mayor and other local authorities. Between 1983 and 1994, the homicide rate increased from 23 to 124 per 100 000 inhabitants. Subsequently, rates went down in 1995, 1996, and 1997 to 112, 102, and 86,1 per 100 000, respectively, and again rose slightly in 1998 to 88 per 100 000. Even though people of all ages, including children under 5, have been victims of violence, the most affected group is that of men between the ages of 20 and 34. The ratio of men to women has varied from 14.3:1 to 9.2:1. In terms of numbers, percentages, and rates, low-income groups are the most seriously affected, although the highest-income groups have had rates as high as 160 per 100 000. A firearm was used in over 80% of homicides, and the crime was most often committed at night and on a weekend. A suspect was identified in only a few cases (8% to 21%). The bivariate analysis revealed a positive association with alcohol consumption by the victim, as well as with the use of firearms by the assailant (OR: 3.1; 95% CI: 2.6 to 3.6). Cases that occurred during a fight between individuals or during group fighting showed an association with the use of a sharp weapon and with alcohol consumption by the victim (OR: 1.9; 95% CI: 1.4 to 2.6). A map shows the homicide distribution by neighborhood, and

  9. Theoretical Risk and Prevention Model for Secondary Health Conditions and Mortality After SCI: 15 Years of Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krause, James S.; Saunders, Lee L.; DiPiro, Nicole D.; Reed, Karla S.

    2013-01-01

    Background: To successfully prevent secondary health conditions (SHCs) and promote longevity after spinal cord injury (SCI), we must first understand the risk factors precipitating their occurrence and develop strategies to address these risk factors. Conceptual models may aid in identifying the nature of SHCs and guide research, clinical practice, and the development of prevention strategies. Objective: Our purpose is to review and refine an existing theoretical risk and prevention model (TRPM) as a means of classifying risk and protective factors for SHCs and mortality after SCI and for identifying points of intervention. Methods: We describe conceptual work within the field of SCI research and SHCs, including a description of the TRPM, a review of research using the TRPM, and conceptual enhancements to the TRPM based on previous research. Conclusions: The enhanced TRPM directs research to the timing and chronicity of the SHCs and their relationship with overall health and physiologic decline. Future research should identify differences in the nature of SHCs, the extent to which they relate to risk and protective factors, and the degree to which they may be prevented with appropriate research-based strategies. PMID:23459002

  10. Linking growth to environmental histories in central Baltic young-of-the-year sprat, Sprattus sprattus : an approach based on otolith microstructure analysis and hydrodynamic modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baumann, H.; Hinrichsen, H.H.; Voss, R.

    2006-01-01

    Otolith microstructure analysis and hydrodynamic modelling were combined to study growth patterns in young-of-the-year (YoY) sprat, Sprattus sprattus, which were sampled in October 2002 in the central Baltic Sea. The observed 'window of survival', approximated by the distribution of back-calculat......Otolith microstructure analysis and hydrodynamic modelling were combined to study growth patterns in young-of-the-year (YoY) sprat, Sprattus sprattus, which were sampled in October 2002 in the central Baltic Sea. The observed 'window of survival', approximated by the distribution of back......-calculated days of first feeding (DFF), was narrow compared to the extended spawning season of sprat in the Baltic Sea (mean +/- SD = 22 June +/- 14.1 days) and indicated that only individuals born in summer survived until October 2002. Within the group of survivors, individuals born later in the season exhibited...

  11. PREFACE: The First Fifteen Years of Reverse Monte Carlo Modelling, Budapest, Hungary (9--11 October 2003)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keen, David A.; Pusztai, Laszlo; Dove, Martin T.

    2005-02-01

    This special issue contains a collection of papers reflecting the content of the second workshop on reverse Monte Carlo (RMC) methods, held in a hotel on hills overlooking Budapest in October 2003. Around forty participants gathered to hear talks and discuss a broad range of science based on the RMC technique in very convivial surroundings. Reverse Monte Carlo modelling is a method for producing three-dimensional disordered structural models in quantitative agreement with experimental data. The method was developed in the late 1980’s and has since achieved wide acceptance within the scientific community. It is particularly suitable for studies of the structures of liquid and amorphous materials, although it has also been used for a number of disordered crystalline systems. There is currently a great interest in the properties of disordered materials and this has produced a resurgence in methods for investigating their structures, with an increased number of high-quality instruments at central facilities for neutron and x-ray scattering from disordered materials. Methods such as RMC are currently in great demand for analysing the resulting total scattering and XAS data and the RMC methodology is actively being developed by a number of groups worldwide. Within this context, the RMC workshop was particularly timely, providing a forum for those workers in the field to take stock of past achievements and to look forward to future developments. It is our hope that the collection of papers within this special issue will also communicate this to the wider scientific community, by providing a balance between papers that have more of an introductory review flavour and those that concentrate on current state of the art research opportunities using the RMC method. The order of the papers within this special issue reflects this balance. The first two papers are introductory reviews of the RMC method in general and as applied specifically to crystalline systems, respectively

  12. Changes in diet, cardiovascular risk factors and modelled cardiovascular risk following diagnosis of diabetes: 1-year results from the ADDITION-Cambridge trial cohort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Savory, L A; Griffin, S J; Williams, K M; Prevost, A T; Kinmonth, A-L; Wareham, N J; Simmons, R K

    2014-02-01

    To describe change in self-reported diet and plasma vitamin C, and to examine associations between change in diet and cardiovascular disease risk factors and modelled 10-year cardiovascular disease risk in the year following diagnosis of Type 2 diabetes. Eight hundred and sixty-seven individuals with screen-detected diabetes underwent assessment of self-reported diet, plasma vitamin C, cardiovascular disease risk factors and modelled cardiovascular disease risk at baseline and 1 year (n = 736) in the ADDITION-Cambridge trial. Multivariable linear regression was used to quantify the association between change in diet and cardiovascular disease risk at 1 year, adjusting for change in physical activity and cardio-protective medication. Participants reported significant reductions in energy, fat and sodium intake, and increases in fruit, vegetable and fibre intake over 1 year. The reduction in energy was equivalent to an average-sized chocolate bar; the increase in fruit was equal to one plum per day. There was a small increase in plasma vitamin C levels. Increases in fruit intake and plasma vitamin C were associated with small reductions in anthropometric and metabolic risk factors. Increased vegetable intake was associated with an increase in BMI and waist circumference. Reductions in fat, energy and sodium intake were associated with reduction in HbA1c , waist circumference and total cholesterol/modelled cardiovascular disease risk, respectively. Improvements in dietary behaviour in this screen-detected population were associated with small reductions in cardiovascular disease risk, independently of change in cardio-protective medication and physical activity. Dietary change may have a role to play in the reduction of cardiovascular disease risk following diagnosis of diabetes. © 2013 The Authors. Diabetic Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Diabetes UK.

  13. Chemical effects in 11-year solar cycle simulations with the Freie Universität Berlin Climate Middle Atmosphere Model with online chemistry (FUB-CMAM-CHEM)

    OpenAIRE

    U. Langematz; J. Grenfell; K. Matthes; P. Mieth; M. Kunze; B. Steil; C. Brühl;  

    2005-01-01

    The impact of 11-year solar cycle variations on stratospheric ozone (O3) is studied with the Freie Universität Berlin Climate Middle Atmosphere Model with interactive chemistry (FUB-CMAM-CHEM). To consider the effect of variations in charged particle precipitation we included an idealized NO x source in the upper mesosphere representing relativistic electron precipitation (REP). Our results suggest that the NO x source by particles and its transport from the mesosphere to the stratosphe...

  14. A synthesis of ten years' tests on scale models of LMFBR steam generators at the CGVS facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fontaine, J.P.; Quinet, J.L.

    1982-01-01

    Electricite de France has built a high power sodium heated steam generator (SG) facility (CGVS), capable of reproducing all possible operating conditions, to study the behaviour of scale-models of industrial apparatuses. The main findings of the experiments were as follows: - heat exchange surfaces remained perfectly leak proof; - hydrogen detection in the sodium and argon constitute additional systems for monitoring the impermeability to leaks of a SG with a free sodium surface; - extrapolation of the findings to the SUPER PHENIX SG shows that water leaking at a rate of 100 mg/s would induce in ten minutes a 50% rise of the signal produced by the hydrogen monitoring device in the sodium; - acoustic method can detect leaks of the order of one g/s in a 45 MW SG sited in an industrial environment

  15. Analysis of impulse oscillometric measures of lung function and respiratory system model parameters in small airway-impaired and healthy children over a 2-year period

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nava Pat

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Is Impulse Oscillometry System (IOS a valuable tool to measure respiratory system function in Children? Asthma (A is the most prevalent chronic respiratory disease in children. Therefore, early and accurate assessment of respiratory function is of tremendous clinical interest in diagnosis, monitoring and treatment of respiratory conditions in this subpopulation. IOS has been successfully used to measure lung function in children with a high degree of sensitivity and specificity to small airway impairments (SAI and asthma. IOS measures of airway function and equivalent electrical circuit models of the human respiratory system have been developed to quantify the severity of these conditions. Previously, we have evaluated several known respiratory models based on the Mead's model and more parsimonious versions based on fitting IOS data known as extended RIC (eRIC and augmented RIC (aRIC models have emerged, which offer advantages over earlier models. Methods IOS data from twenty-six children were collected and compared during pre-bronchodilation (pre-B and post- bronchodilation (post-B conditions over a period of 2 years. Results and Discussion Are the IOS and model parameters capable of differentiating between healthy children and children with respiratory system distress? Children were classified into two main categories: Healthy (H and Small Airway-Impaired (SAI. The IOS measures and respiratory model parameters analyzed differed consistently between H and SAI children. SAI children showed smaller trend of "growth" and larger trend of bronchodilator responses than H children. The two model parameters: peripheral compliance (Cp and peripheral resistance (Rp tracked IOS indices of small airway function well. Cp was a more sensitive index than Rp. Both eRIC and aRIC Cps and the IOS Reactance Area, AX, (also known as the "Goldman Triangle" showed good correlations. Conclusions What are the most useful IOS and model parameters? In

  16. Integrated Landsat Image Analysis and Hydrologic Modeling to Detect Impacts of 25-Year Land-Cover Change on Surface Runoff in a Philippine Watershed

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Enrico Paringit

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Landsat MSS and ETM+ images were analyzed to detect 25-year land-cover change (1976–2001 in the critical Taguibo Watershed in Mindanao Island, Southern Philippines. This watershed has experienced historical modifications of its land-cover due to the presence of logging industries in the 1950s, and continuous deforestation due to illegal logging and slash-and-burn agriculture in the present time. To estimate the impacts of land-cover change on watershed runoff, land-cover information derived from the Landsat images was utilized to parameterize a GIS-based hydrologic model. The model was then calibrated with field-measured discharge data and used to simulate the responses of the watershed in its year 2001 and year 1976 land-cover conditions. The availability of land-cover information on the most recent state of the watershed from the Landsat ETM+ image made it possible to locate areas for rehabilitation such as barren and logged-over areas. We then created a “rehabilitated” land-cover condition map of the watershed (re-forestation of logged-over areas and agro-forestation of barren areas and used it to parameterize the model and predict the runoff responses of the watershed. Model results showed that changes in land-cover from 1976 to 2001 were directly related to the significant increase in surface runoff. Runoff predictions showed that a full rehabilitation of the watershed, especially in barren and logged-over areas, will be likely to reduce the generation of a huge volume of runoff during rainfall events. The results of this study have demonstrated the usefulness of multi-temporal Landsat images in detecting land-cover change, in identifying areas for rehabilitation, and in evaluating rehabilitation strategies for management of tropical watersheds through its use in hydrologic modeling.

  17. Disease Management Project Breast Cancer in Hesse - 5-Year Survival Data: Successful Model of Intersectoral Communication for Quality Assurance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackisch, C; Funk, A; König, K; Lubbe, D; Misselwitz, B; Wagner, U

    2014-03-01

    Introduction: The Disease Management Project Breast Cancer (DMP Breast Cancer) was first launched in Hesse in 2004. The project is supported by the health insurance companies in Hesse and the Professional Association of Gynaecologists in Hesse. The aim is to offer structured treatment programmes to all women diagnosed with breast cancer in Hesse by creating intersectoral cooperations between coordinating clinics, associated hospitals and gynaecologists in private practice who registered in the DMP programme. Method: Between 1 January 2005 and 30 June 2011, 13 973 women were enrolled in the DMP programme. Results: After data cleansing, survival rates were calculated for a total of 11 214 women. The 5-year overall survival (OS) rate was 86.3 %; survival rates according to tumour stage on presentation were 92.2 % (pT1) and 82.3 % (pT2), respectively. The impact of steroid hormone receptor status on survival (87.8 % for receptor-positive cancers vs. 78.9 % for receptor-negative cancers) and of age at first diagnosis on survival (≤ 35 years = 91 %) were calculated. Conclusion: The project showed that intersectoral cooperation led to significant improvements in the quality of treatment over time, as measured by quality indicators and outcomes after treatment.

  18. Mental Health Changes and Its Predictors in Adolescents using the Path Analytic Model: A 7-Year Observational Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Reza Soltanian

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available This 7-year observational study examines the hours of TV-watching, phone conversation with friends, using the internet, and physical activity as predictors of mental health among adolescents in south of Iran.At the baseline (in 2005, the participants were 2584 high school students in the 9th to 11th grade. At the baseline, 30% of the available participants (n = 775 were selected in the follow-up (2012 using convenience sampling method. This study used the path analysis to examine the predictors of mental health and to obtain direct, indirect and total effects of the independent variables.At the baseline (2005, female gender, internet use, maternal education, physical activity and father's education were associated with mental health (p<0.05. Baseline mental health, internet use and physical activity predicted mental health of the participants in the follow up (p<0.05.The findings of the study revealed that better mental health in later life is associated with better mental health at baseline, male gender, higher physical activity and phone communication with friends, and less use of the internet and TV.

  19. Reconstructing and analyzing China's fifty-nine year (1951–2009 drought history using hydrological model simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. Y. Wu

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available The 1951–2009 drought history of China is reconstructed using daily soil moisture values generated by the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC land surface macroscale hydrology model. VIC is applied over a grid of 10 458 points with a spatial resolution of 30 km × 30 km, and is driven by observed daily maximum and minimum air temperature and precipitation from 624 long-term meteorological stations. The VIC soil moisture is used to calculate the Soil Moisture Anomaly Percentage Index (SMAPI, which can be used as a measure of the severity of agricultural drought on a global basis. We have developed a SMAPI-based drought identification procedure for practical uses in the identification of both grid point and regional drought events. As a result, a total of 325 regional drought events varying in time and strength are identified from China's nine drought study regions. These drought events can thus be assessed quantitatively at different spatial and temporal scales. The result shows that the severe drought events of 1978, 2000 and 2006 are well reconstructed, which indicates that the SMAPI is capable of identifying the onset of a drought event, its progression, as well as its termination. Spatial and temporal variations of droughts in China's nine drought study regions are studied. Our result shows that on average, up to 30% of the total area of China is prone to drought. Regionally, an upward trend in drought-affected areas has been detected in three regions (Inner Mongolia, Northeast and North from 1951–2009. However, the decadal variability of droughts has been weak in the rest of the five regions (South, Southwest, East, Northwest, and Tibet. Xinjiang has even been showing steadily wetter since the 1950s. Two regional dry centres are discovered in China as the result of a combined analysis on the occurrence of drought events from both grid points and drought study regions. The first centre is located in the area partially covered by the North

  20. A selective review of the first 20 years of instrumental variables models in health-services research and medicine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cawley, John

    2015-01-01

    The method of instrumental variables (IV) is useful for estimating causal effects. Intuitively, it exploits exogenous variation in the treatment, sometimes called natural experiments or instruments. This study reviews the literature in health-services research and medical research that applies the method of instrumental variables, documents trends in its use, and offers examples of various types of instruments. A literature search of the PubMed and EconLit research databases for English-language journal articles published after 1990 yielded a total of 522 original research articles. Citations counts for each article were derived from the Web of Science. A selective review was conducted, with articles prioritized based on number of citations, validity and power of the instrument, and type of instrument. The average annual number of papers in health services research and medical research that apply the method of instrumental variables rose from 1.2 in 1991-1995 to 41.8 in 2006-2010. Commonly-used instruments (natural experiments) in health and medicine are relative distance to a medical care provider offering the treatment and the medical care provider's historic tendency to administer the treatment. Less common but still noteworthy instruments include randomization of treatment for reasons other than research, randomized encouragement to undertake the treatment, day of week of admission as an instrument for waiting time for surgery, and genes as an instrument for whether the respondent has a heritable condition. The use of the method of IV has increased dramatically in the past 20 years, and a wide range of instruments have been used. Applications of the method of IV have in several cases upended conventional wisdom that was based on correlations and led to important insights about health and healthcare. Future research should pursue new applications of existing instruments and search for new instruments that are powerful and valid.

  1. Effects of body habitus on internal radiation dose calculations using the 5-year-old anthropomorphic male models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Xie, Tianwu; Kuster, Niels; Zaidi, Habib

    2017-01-01

    Xtended general purpose Monte Carlo transport code and calculated the absorbed dose and effective dose of five 18F-labelled radiotracers for children of various habitus. For most organs, the S-value of F-18 presents stronger statistical correlations with body weight, standing height and sitting height than BMI...... and SSR. The self-absorbed fraction and self-absorbed S-values of F-18 and the absorbed dose and effective dose of 18F-labelled radiotracers present with the strongest statistical correlations with body weight. For 18F-Amino acids, 18F-Brain receptor substances, 18F-FDG, 18F-L-DOPA and 18F-FBPA, the mean...... absolute effective dose differences between phantoms of different habitus and fixed reference models are 11.4%, 11.3%, 10.8%, 13.3% and 11.4%, respectively. Total body weight, standing height and sitting height have considerable effects on human internal dosimetry. Radiation dose calculations...

  2. Modeling the recurrent failure to thrive in less than two-year children: recurrent events survival analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saki Malehi, Amal; Hajizadeh, Ebrahim; Ahmadi, Kambiz; Kholdi, Nahid

    2014-01-01

    This study aimes to evaluate the failure to thrive (FTT) recurrent event over time. This longitudinal study was conducted during February 2007 to July 2009. The primary outcome was growth failure. The analysis was done using 1283 children who had experienced FTT several times, based on recurrent events analysis. Fifty-nine percent of the children had experienced the FTT at least one time and 5.3% of them had experienced it up to four times. The Prentice-Williams-Peterson (PWP) model revealed significant relationship between diarrhea (HR=1.26), respiratory infections (HR=1.25), urinary tract infections (HR=1.51), discontinuation of breast-feeding (HR=1.96), teething (HR=1.18), initiation age of complementary feeding (HR=1.11) and hazard rate of the first FTT event. Recurrence nature of the FTT is a main problem, which taking it into account increases the accuracy in analysis of FTT event process and can lead to identify different risk factors for each FTT recurrences.

  3. MODELING THE VARIATIONS OF DOSE RATE MEASURED BY RAD DURING THE FIRST MSL MARTIAN YEAR: 2012–2014

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Guo, Jingnan; Wimmer-Schweingruber, Robert F.; Heber, Bernd; Köhler, Jan; Appel, Jan K.; Böhm, Eckart; Böttcher, Stephan; Burmeister, Sönke; Lohf, Henning; Martin, Cesar [Institute of Experimental and Applied Physics, Christian-Albrechts-University, Kiel (Germany); Zeitlin, Cary [Southwest Research Institute, Earth, Oceans and Space Department, Durham, NH (United States); Rafkin, Scot; Hassler, Donald M.; Ehresmann, Bent [Southwest Research Institute, Space Science and Engineering Division, Boulder, CO (United States); Posner, Arik [NASA Headquarters, Science Mission Directorate, Washington, DC (United States); Brinza, David E. [Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA (United States); Kahanpää, H. [Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki (Finland); Reitz, Günther, E-mail: guo@physik.uni-kiel.de [Aerospace Medicine, Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt, Köln (Germany)

    2015-09-01

    The Radiation Assessment Detector (RAD), on board Mars Science Laboratory’s (MSL) rover Curiosity, measures the energy spectra of both energetic charged and neutral particles along with the radiation dose rate at the surface of Mars. With these first-ever measurements on the Martian surface, RAD observed several effects influencing the galactic cosmic-ray (GCR) induced surface radiation dose concurrently: (a) short-term diurnal variations of the Martian atmospheric pressure caused by daily thermal tides, (b) long-term seasonal pressure changes in the Martian atmosphere, and (c) the modulation of the primary GCR flux by the heliospheric magnetic field, which correlates with long-term solar activity and the rotation of the Sun. The RAD surface dose measurements, along with the surface pressure data and the solar modulation factor, are analyzed and fitted to empirical models that quantitatively demonstrate how the long-term influences ((b) and (c)) are related to the measured dose rates. Correspondingly, we can estimate dose rate and dose equivalents under different solar modulations and different atmospheric conditions, thus allowing empirical predictions of the Martian surface radiation environment.

  4. General and specific attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder factors of children 4 to 6 years of age: An exploratory structural equation modeling approach to assessing symptom multidimensionality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arias, Víctor B; Ponce, Fernando P; Martínez-Molina, Agustín; Arias, Benito; Núñez, Daniel

    2016-01-01

    We tested first-order factor and bifactor models of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) using confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) and exploratory structural equation modeling (ESEM) to adequately summarize the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, 4th Edition, (DSM-IV-TR) symptoms observed in a Spanish sample of preschoolers and kindergarteners. Six ESEM and CFA models were estimated based on teacher evaluations of the behavior of 638 children 4 to 6 years of age. An ESEM bifactor model with a central dimension plus 3 specific factors (inattention, hyperactivity, and impulsivity) showed the best fit and interpretability. Strict invariance between the sexes was observed. The bifactor model provided a solution to previously encountered inconsistencies in the factorial models of ADHD in young children. However, the low reliability of the specific factors casts doubt on the utility of the subscales for ADHD measurement. More research is necessary to clarify the nature of G and S factors of ADHD. (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved.

  5. Modelling survival and mortality risk to 15 years of age for a national cohort of children with serious congenital heart defects diagnosed in infancy.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rachel L Knowles

    Full Text Available Congenital heart defects (CHDs are a significant cause of death in infancy. Although contemporary management ensures that 80% of affected children reach adulthood, post-infant mortality and factors associated with death during childhood are not well-characterised. Using data from a UK-wide multicentre birth cohort of children with serious CHDs, we observed survival and investigated independent predictors of mortality up to age 15 years.Data were extracted retrospectively from hospital records and death certificates of 3,897 children (57% boys in a prospectively identified cohort, born 1992-1995 with CHDs requiring intervention or resulting in death before age one year. A discrete-time survival model accounted for time-varying predictors; hazards ratios were estimated for mortality. Incomplete data were addressed through multilevel multiple imputation.By age 15 years, 932 children had died; 144 died without any procedure. Survival to one year was 79.8% (95% confidence intervals [CI] 78.5, 81.1% and to 15 years was 71.7% (63.9, 73.4%, with variation by cardiac diagnosis. Importantly, 20% of cohort deaths occurred after age one year. Models using imputed data (including all children from birth demonstrated higher mortality risk as independently associated with cardiac diagnosis, female sex, preterm birth, having additional cardiac defects or non-cardiac malformations. In models excluding children who had no procedure, additional predictors of higher mortality were younger age at first procedure, lower weight or height, longer cardiopulmonary bypass or circulatory arrest duration, and peri-procedural complications; non-cardiac malformations were no longer significant.We confirm the high mortality risk associated with CHDs in the first year of life and demonstrate an important persisting risk of death throughout childhood. Late mortality may be underestimated by procedure-based audit focusing on shorter-term surgical outcomes. National monitoring

  6. Modelling survival and mortality risk to 15 years of age for a national cohort of children with serious congenital heart defects diagnosed in infancy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knowles, Rachel L; Bull, Catherine; Wren, Christopher; Wade, Angela; Goldstein, Harvey; Dezateux, Carol

    2014-01-01

    Congenital heart defects (CHDs) are a significant cause of death in infancy. Although contemporary management ensures that 80% of affected children reach adulthood, post-infant mortality and factors associated with death during childhood are not well-characterised. Using data from a UK-wide multicentre birth cohort of children with serious CHDs, we observed survival and investigated independent predictors of mortality up to age 15 years. Data were extracted retrospectively from hospital records and death certificates of 3,897 children (57% boys) in a prospectively identified cohort, born 1992-1995 with CHDs requiring intervention or resulting in death before age one year. A discrete-time survival model accounted for time-varying predictors; hazards ratios were estimated for mortality. Incomplete data were addressed through multilevel multiple imputation. By age 15 years, 932 children had died; 144 died without any procedure. Survival to one year was 79.8% (95% confidence intervals [CI] 78.5, 81.1%) and to 15 years was 71.7% (63.9, 73.4%), with variation by cardiac diagnosis. Importantly, 20% of cohort deaths occurred after age one year. Models using imputed data (including all children from birth) demonstrated higher mortality risk as independently associated with cardiac diagnosis, female sex, preterm birth, having additional cardiac defects or non-cardiac malformations. In models excluding children who had no procedure, additional predictors of higher mortality were younger age at first procedure, lower weight or height, longer cardiopulmonary bypass or circulatory arrest duration, and peri-procedural complications; non-cardiac malformations were no longer significant. We confirm the high mortality risk associated with CHDs in the first year of life and demonstrate an important persisting risk of death throughout childhood. Late mortality may be underestimated by procedure-based audit focusing on shorter-term surgical outcomes. National monitoring systems should

  7. Five-Year-Olds’ Systematic Errors in Second-Order False Belief Tasks Are Due to First-Order Theory of Mind Strategy Selection: A Computational Modeling Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arslan, Burcu; Taatgen, Niels A.; Verbrugge, Rineke

    2017-01-01

    The focus of studies on second-order false belief reasoning generally was on investigating the roles of executive functions and language with correlational studies. Different from those studies, we focus on the question how 5-year-olds select and revise reasoning strategies in second-order false belief tasks by constructing two computational cognitive models of this process: an instance-based learning model and a reinforcement learning model. Unlike the reinforcement learning model, the instance-based learning model predicted that children who fail second-order false belief tasks would give answers based on first-order theory of mind (ToM) reasoning as opposed to zero-order reasoning. This prediction was confirmed with an empirical study that we conducted with 72 5- to 6-year-old children. The results showed that 17% of the answers were correct and 83% of the answers were wrong. In line with our prediction, 65% of the wrong answers were based on a first-order ToM strategy, while only 29% of them were based on a zero-order strategy (the remaining 6% of subjects did not provide any answer). Based on our instance-based learning model, we propose that when children get feedback “Wrong,” they explicitly revise their strategy to a higher level instead of implicitly selecting one of the available ToM strategies. Moreover, we predict that children’s failures are due to lack of experience and that with exposure to second-order false belief reasoning, children can revise their wrong first-order reasoning strategy to a correct second-order reasoning strategy. PMID:28293206

  8. Five-Year-Olds' Systematic Errors in Second-Order False Belief Tasks Are Due to First-Order Theory of Mind Strategy Selection: A Computational Modeling Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arslan, Burcu; Taatgen, Niels A; Verbrugge, Rineke

    2017-01-01

    The focus of studies on second-order false belief reasoning generally was on investigating the roles of executive functions and language with correlational studies. Different from those studies, we focus on the question how 5-year-olds select and revise reasoning strategies in second-order false belief tasks by constructing two computational cognitive models of this process: an instance-based learning model and a reinforcement learning model. Unlike the reinforcement learning model, the instance-based learning model predicted that children who fail second-order false belief tasks would give answers based on first-order theory of mind (ToM) reasoning as opposed to zero-order reasoning. This prediction was confirmed with an empirical study that we conducted with 72 5- to 6-year-old children. The results showed that 17% of the answers were correct and 83% of the answers were wrong. In line with our prediction, 65% of the wrong answers were based on a first-order ToM strategy, while only 29% of them were based on a zero-order strategy (the remaining 6% of subjects did not provide any answer). Based on our instance-based learning model, we propose that when children get feedback "Wrong," they explicitly revise their strategy to a higher level instead of implicitly selecting one of the available ToM strategies. Moreover, we predict that children's failures are due to lack of experience and that with exposure to second-order false belief reasoning, children can revise their wrong first-order reasoning strategy to a correct second-order reasoning strategy.

  9. Using Dynamic Transmission Modeling to Determine Vaccination Coverage Rate Based on 5-Year Economic Burden of Infectious Disease: An Example of Pneumococcal Vaccine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wen, Yu-Wen; Wu, Hsin; Chang, Chee-Jen

    2015-05-01

    Vaccination can reduce the incidence and mortality of an infectious disease and thus increase the years of life and productivity for the entire society. But when determining the vaccination coverage rate, its economic burden is usually not taken into account. This article aimed to use a dynamic transmission modeling (DTM), which is based on a susceptible-infectious-recovered model and is a system of differential equations, to find the optimal vaccination coverage rate based on the economic burden of an infectious disease. Vaccination for pneumococcal diseases was used as an example to demonstrate the main purpose. 23-Valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccines (PPV23) and 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCV13) have shown their cost-effectiveness in elderly and children, respectively. Scenarios analysis of PPV23 to elderly aged 65+ years and of PCV13 to children aged 0 to 4 years was applied to assess the optimal vaccination coverage rate based on the 5-year economic burden. Model parameters were derived from Taiwan's National Health Insurance Research Database, government data, and published literature. Various vaccination coverage rates, the vaccine efficacy, and all epidemiologic parameters were substituted into DTM, and all differential equations were solved in R Statistical Software. If the coverage rate of PPV23 for the elderly and of PCV13 for the children both reach 50%, the economic burden due to pneumococcal disease will be acceptable. This article provided an alternative perspective from the economic burden of diseases to obtain a vaccination coverage rate using the DTM. This will provide valuable information for vaccination policy decision makers. Copyright © 2015 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Disability transitions and health expectancies among adults 45 years and older in Malawi: a cohort-based model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Collin F Payne

    Full Text Available Falling fertility and increasing life expectancy contribute to a growing elderly population in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA; by 2060, persons aged 45 y and older are projected to be 25% of SSA's population, up from 10% in 2010. Aging in SSA is associated with unique challenges because of poverty and inadequate social supports. However, despite its importance for understanding the consequences of population aging, the evidence about the prevalence of disabilities and functional limitations due to poor physical health among older adults in SSA continues to be very limited.Participants came from 2006, 2008, and 2010 waves of the Malawi Longitudinal Survey of Families and Health, a study of the rural population in Malawi. We investigate how poor physical health results in functional limitations that limit the day-to-day activities of individuals in domains relevant to this subsistence-agriculture context. These disabilities were parameterized based on questions from the SF-12 questionnaire about limitations in daily living activities. We estimated age-specific patterns of functional limitations and the transitions over time between different disability states using a discrete-time hazard model. The estimated transition rates were then used to calculate the first (to our knowledge microdata-based health expectancies calculated for SSA. The risks of experiencing functional limitations due to poor physical health are high in this population, and the onset of disabilities happens early in life. Our analyses show that 45-y-old women can expect to spend 58% (95% CI, 55%-64% of their remaining 28 y of life (95% CI, 25.7-33.5 with functional limitations; 45-y-old men can expect to live 41% (95% CI, 35%-46% of their remaining 25.4 y (95% CI, 23.3-28.8 with such limitations. Disabilities related to functional limitations are shown to have a substantial negative effect on individuals' labor activities, and are negatively related to subjective well

  11. Disability transitions and health expectancies among adults 45 years and older in Malawi: a cohort-based model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Payne, Collin F; Mkandawire, James; Kohler, Hans-Peter

    2013-01-01

    Falling fertility and increasing life expectancy contribute to a growing elderly population in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA); by 2060, persons aged 45 y and older are projected to be 25% of SSA's population, up from 10% in 2010. Aging in SSA is associated with unique challenges because of poverty and inadequate social supports. However, despite its importance for understanding the consequences of population aging, the evidence about the prevalence of disabilities and functional limitations due to poor physical health among older adults in SSA continues to be very limited. Participants came from 2006, 2008, and 2010 waves of the Malawi Longitudinal Survey of Families and Health, a study of the rural population in Malawi. We investigate how poor physical health results in functional limitations that limit the day-to-day activities of individuals in domains relevant to this subsistence-agriculture context. These disabilities were parameterized based on questions from the SF-12 questionnaire about limitations in daily living activities. We estimated age-specific patterns of functional limitations and the transitions over time between different disability states using a discrete-time hazard model. The estimated transition rates were then used to calculate the first (to our knowledge) microdata-based health expectancies calculated for SSA. The risks of experiencing functional limitations due to poor physical health are high in this population, and the onset of disabilities happens early in life. Our analyses show that 45-y-old women can expect to spend 58% (95% CI, 55%-64%) of their remaining 28 y of life (95% CI, 25.7-33.5) with functional limitations; 45-y-old men can expect to live 41% (95% CI, 35%-46%) of their remaining 25.4 y (95% CI, 23.3-28.8) with such limitations. Disabilities related to functional limitations are shown to have a substantial negative effect on individuals' labor activities, and are negatively related to subjective well-being. Individuals in this

  12. One-Year Outcomes of Total Meniscus Reconstruction Using a Novel Fiber-Reinforced Scaffold in an Ovine Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patel, Jay M; Merriam, Aaron R; Culp, Brian M; Gatt, Charles J; Dunn, Michael G

    2016-04-01

    Meniscus injuries and resulting meniscectomies lead to joint deterioration, causing pain, discomfort, and instability. Tissue-engineered devices to replace the meniscus have not shown consistent success with regard to function, mechanical integrity, or protection of cartilage. To evaluate a novel resorbable polymer fiber-reinforced meniscus reconstruction scaffold in an ovine model for 52 weeks and assess its integrity, tensile and compressive mechanics, cell phenotypes, matrix organization and content, and protection of the articular cartilage surfaces. Controlled laboratory study. Eight skeletally mature ewes were implanted with the fiber-reinforced scaffold after total meniscectomy, and 2 additional animals had untreated total meniscectomies. Animals were sacrificed at 52 weeks, and the explants and articular surfaces were analyzed macroscopically. Explants were characterized by ultimate tensile testing, confined compression creep testing, and biochemical, histological, and immunohistochemical analyses. Cartilage damage was characterized using the Mankin score on histologic slides from both the femur and tibia. One sheep was removed from the study because of a torn extensor tendon; the remaining 7 explants remained fully intact and incorporated into the bone tunnels. All explants exhibited functional tensile loads, tensile stiffnesses, and compressive moduli. Fibrocartilagenous repair with both types 1 and 2 collagen were observed, with areas of matrix organization and biochemical content similar to native tissue. Narrowing in the body region was observed in 5 of 7 explants. Mankin scores showed less cartilage damage in the explant group (femoral condyle: 3.43 ± 0.79, tibial plateau: 3.50 ± 1.63) than in the meniscectomy group (femoral condyle: 8.50 ± 3.54, tibial plateau: 6.75 ± 2.47) and were comparable with Mankin scores at the previously reported 16- and 32-week time points. A resorbable fiber-reinforced meniscus scaffold supports formation of functional

  13. The Year Without a Ski Season: An Analysis of the Winter of 2015 for Three Ski Resorts in Western Canada Using Historical and Simulation Model Forecasted Climate Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pidwirny, M. J.; Goode, J. D.; Pedersen, S.

    2015-12-01

    The winter of 2015 will go down as "the year without a ski season" for many ski resorts located close to the west coast of Canada and the USA. During this winter season, a large area of the eastern North Pacific Ocean had extremely high sea surface temperatures. These high sea surface temperatures influenced weather patterns on the west coast of North America producing very mild temperatures inland. Further, in alpine environments precipitation that normally arrives in the form of snow instead fell as rain. This research examines the climate characteristics of the winter of 2015 in greater detail for three ski resorts in British Columbia, Canada: Mount Washington, Cypress Mountain and Hemlock Valley. For these resorts, historical (1901 to 2013) and IPCC AR5 climate model forecasted climate data (RCP8.5 for 2025, 2055, and 2085) was generated for the variable winter degree days climate database ClimateBC. A value for winter degree days climate data at nearby meteorological stations for comparative analysis. For all three resorts, the winter of 2015 proved to be warmer than any individual year in the period 1901 to 2013. Interpolations involving the multi-model ensemble forecast means suggest that the climate associated with winter of 2015 will become the average normal for these resorts in only 35 to 45 years under the RCP8.5 emission scenario.

  14. [An example of self-evaluation of a sense of achievement by students in 6-year pharmacy school with the model core curriculum of pharmaceutical education].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shingaki, Tomoteru; Koyanagi, Jyunichi; Nakamura, Hiroshi; Hirata, Takahiro; Ohta, Atsutane; Akimoto, Masayuki; Shirahata, Akira; Mitsumoto, Atsushi

    2013-01-01

    In March 2012, the first students, finishing the newly introduced 6-year-course of pharmaceutical education, have graduated and gone out into the world. At this point, the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT) is going to revise the model core curriculum of pharmaceutical education to be more suited for educating students to achieve their goal of becoming the clinical pharmacist standard defined by the revised School Education Act. Here we report the self-evaluation study based on the survey using questionnaire about a sense of achievement with Visual Analog Scales, regarding the fundamental quality as a pharmacist standard proposed by the Professional Activities Committee in the MEXT. The sample size of survey was about 600 of students studying in the Faculty of Pharmaceutical Sciences in Josai International University (JIU) and the survey was carried out during the period of March-April in 2012. The study suggested that the majority of graduates were satisfied with the new education system and marked as a well-balanced quality to be a pharmacist standard, after completing the 6-year pharmaceutical education based on "the model core-curriculum". It would be worthwhile to perform this kind of survey continuously to monitor the student's self-evaluation of a sense of achievement to verify the effectiveness of 6-year-course pharmaceutical education based on the newly establishing core curriculum in Japan.

  15. Petroleum - as far as available. Analysis and critical model calculation up to the year 2200. Erdoel - soweit verfuegbar. Analyse und kritische Modellrechnung bis zum Jahr 2200

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stahmer, A M

    1979-01-01

    An outline is given on the most important oil producing countries and on the petroleum reserves available there as they developed from 1960 to 1978. For the last few years, the figures at hand show a distinct decline of new discoveries i.e. of proved reserves, compared with consumption. Prospective development factors are critically examined, and a model of potential petroleum supply is developed covering the period up to the year 2200 and requiring the adjustment of production and consumption. Until 1986, the model shows a plateau of international oil production (and of consumption) amounting to 3 billion tons per year on an average, and subsequently a constant decline of output. The international average consumption being kept at a relatively high level is to give the world economy the opportunity to develop alternative energy sources. From this detailed statement follows automatically the demand to increase exploratory activities and to lead an optimal consumption policy. In a separate section deposits of heavy oil sands and oil shales and respective production technologies are dealt with as well as their potential contribution to meet energy needs.

  16. Development and validation of a modified Hybrid-III six-year-old dummy model for simulating submarining in motor-vehicle crashes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Jingwen; Klinich, Kathleen D; Reed, Matthew P; Kokkolaras, Michael; Rupp, Jonathan D

    2012-06-01

    In motor-vehicle crashes, young school-aged children restrained by vehicle seat belt systems often suffer from abdominal injuries due to submarining. However, the current anthropomorphic test device, so-called "crash dummy", is not adequate for proper simulation of submarining. In this study, a modified Hybrid-III six-year-old dummy model capable of simulating and predicting submarining was developed using MADYMO (TNO Automotive Safety Solutions). The model incorporated improved pelvis and abdomen geometry and properties previously tested in a modified physical dummy. The model was calibrated and validated against four sled tests under two test conditions with and without submarining using a multi-objective optimization method. A sensitivity analysis using this validated child dummy model showed that dummy knee excursion, torso rotation angle, and the difference between head and knee excursions were good predictors for submarining status. It was also shown that restraint system design variables, such as lap belt angle, D-ring height, and seat coefficient of friction (COF), may have opposite effects on head and abdomen injury risks; therefore child dummies and dummy models capable of simulating submarining are crucial for future restraint system design optimization for young school-aged children. Copyright © 2011 IPEM. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. The Female Population Growth Projection Year 2021 in Trenggalek Regency by Leslie Matrix Model on the Birth Rate and Life Expectancy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dewi Anggreini

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available This research aims to determine the number of female residents in Trenggalek Regency in 2021 based on data on birth rate and life expectancy. The use of eigenvalues and eigenvectors aims to determine the dividing age distribution by Leslie matrix model. The eigenvectors are used to determine the number of female populations of each age interval, while the eigenvalues are used to determine population growth rates. The research method used is to determine the subject of research. The next stage is to collect research data, then analyze the data and last draw conclusions. The research data is obtained from BPS Kabupaten Trenggalek and BPS East Java Province that is data of woman population from year 2010-2015. The result of this research using Leslie matrix model for female population in Trenggalek Regency that is discrete model. The discrete model is divided into fourteen age intervals constructed using the birthrate and life expectancy. The conclusions of the study showed that the number of female population in Trenggalek Regency tended to increase with positive eigen value greater than one. In other words, the growth rate of female population in Trenggalek Regency tends to be positive. The success of Leslie's matrix model is the application of case studies in predicting the number of female populations in Trenggalek District by 2021 using the MAPLE 16 Program.

  18. Investigation of market efficiency and Financial Stability between S&P 500 and London Stock Exchange: Monthly and yearly Forecasting of Time Series Stock Returns using ARMA model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rounaghi, Mohammad Mahdi; Nassir Zadeh, Farzaneh

    2016-08-01

    We investigated the presence and changes in, long memory features in the returns and volatility dynamics of S&P 500 and London Stock Exchange using ARMA model. Recently, multifractal analysis has been evolved as an important way to explain the complexity of financial markets which can hardly be described by linear methods of efficient market theory. In financial markets, the weak form of the efficient market hypothesis implies that price returns are serially uncorrelated sequences. In other words, prices should follow a random walk behavior. The random walk hypothesis is evaluated against alternatives accommodating either unifractality or multifractality. Several studies find that the return volatility of stocks tends to exhibit long-range dependence, heavy tails, and clustering. Because stochastic processes with self-similarity possess long-range dependence and heavy tails, it has been suggested that self-similar processes be employed to capture these characteristics in return volatility modeling. The present study applies monthly and yearly forecasting of Time Series Stock Returns in S&P 500 and London Stock Exchange using ARMA model. The statistical analysis of S&P 500 shows that the ARMA model for S&P 500 outperforms the London stock exchange and it is capable for predicting medium or long horizons using real known values. The statistical analysis in London Stock Exchange shows that the ARMA model for monthly stock returns outperforms the yearly. ​A comparison between S&P 500 and London Stock Exchange shows that both markets are efficient and have Financial Stability during periods of boom and bust.

  19. Development of a child head analytical dynamic model considering cranial nonuniform thickness and curvature - Applying to children aged 0-1 years old.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Zhigang; Ji, Cheng; Wang, Lishu

    2018-07-01

    Although analytical models have been used to quickly predict head response under impact condition, the existing models generally took the head as regular shell with uniform thickness which cannot account for the actual head geometry with varied cranial thickness and curvature at different locations. The objective of this study is to develop and validate an analytical model incorporating actual cranial thickness and curvature for child aged 0-1YO and investigate their effects on child head dynamic responses at different head locations. To develop the new analytical model, the child head was simplified into an irregular fluid-filled shell with non-uniform thickness and the cranial thickness and curvature at different locations were automatically obtained from CT scans using a procedure developed in this study. The implicit equation of maximum impact force was derived as a function of elastic modulus, thickness and radius of curvature of cranium. The proposed analytical model are compared with cadaver test data of children aged 0-1 years old and it is shown to be accurate in predicting head injury metrics. According to this model, obvious difference in injury metrics were observed among subjects with the same age, but different cranial thickness and curvature; and the injury metrics at forehead location are significant higher than those at other locations due to large thickness it owns. The proposed model shows good biofidelity and can be used in quickly predicting the dynamics response at any location of head for child younger than 1 YO. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. Exploring Stage I non-small-cell lung cancer: development of a prognostic model predicting 5-year survival after surgical resection†.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guerrera, Francesco; Errico, Luca; Evangelista, Andrea; Filosso, Pier Luigi; Ruffini, Enrico; Lisi, Elena; Bora, Giulia; Asteggiano, Elena; Olivetti, Stefania; Lausi, Paolo; Ardissone, Francesco; Oliaro, Alberto

    2015-06-01

    Despite impressive results in diagnosis and treatment of non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC), more than 30% of patients with Stage I NSCLC die within 5 years after surgical treatment. Identification of prognostic factors to select patients with a poor prognosis and development of tailored treatment strategies are then advisable. The aim of our study was to design a model able to define prognosis in patients with Stage I NSCLC, submitted to surgery with curative intent. A retrospective analysis of two surgical registries was performed. Predictors of survival were investigated using the Cox model with shared frailty (accounting for the within-centre correlation). Candidate predictors were: age, gender, smoking habit, morbidity, previous malignancy, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status, clinical N stage, maximum standardized uptake value (SUV(max)), forced expiratory volume in 1 s, carbon monoxide lung diffusion capacity (DLCO), extent of surgical resection, systematic lymphadenectomy, vascular invasion, pathological T stage, histology and histological grading. The final model included predictors with P model demonstrated that mortality was significantly associated with age, male sex, presence of cardiac comorbidities, DLCO (%), SUV(max), systematic nodal dissection, presence of microscopic vascular invasion, pTNM stage and histological grading. The final model showed a fair discrimination ability (C-statistic = 0.69): the calibration of the model indicated a good agreement between observed and predicted survival. We designed an effective prognostic model based on clinical, pathological and surgical covariates. Our preliminary results need to be refined and validated in a larger patient population, in order to provide an easy-to-use prognostic tool for Stage I NSCLC patients. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery. All rights reserved.

  1. Lead exposure in young children over a 5-year period from urban environments using alternative exposure measures with the US EPA IEUBK model - A trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gulson, Brian; Taylor, Alan; Stifelman, Marc

    2018-02-01

    The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Integrated Exposure Uptake Biokinetic (IEUBK) model has been widely used to predict blood lead (PbB) levels in children especially around industrial sites. Exposure variables have strongly focussed on the major contribution of lead (Pb) in soil and interior dust to total intake and, in many studies, site-specific data for air, water, diet and measured PbB were not available. We have applied the IEUBK model to a comprehensive data set, including measured PbB, for 108 children monitored over a 5-year period in Sydney, New South Wales, Australia. To use this data set, we have substituted available data (with or without modification) for standard inputs as needed. For example, as an alternative measure for soil Pb concentration (μg/g), we have substituted exterior dust sweepings Pb concentration (μg/g). As alternative measures for interior dust Pb concentration (μg/g) we have used 1) 30-day cumulative petri dish deposition data (PDD) (as µg Pb/m 2 /30days), or 2) hand wipe data (as μg Pb/hand). For comparison, simulations were also undertaken with estimates of dust Pb concentration derived from a prior regression of dust Pb concentration (μg/g) on dust Pb loading (μg/ft 2 ) as concentration is the unit specified for the Model. Simulations for each subject using observed data aggregated over the 5-year interval of the study, the most usual application of the IEUBK model, showed using Wilcoxon tests that there was a significant difference between the observed values and the values predicted by the Model containing soil with hand wipes (p < 0.001), and soil and PDD (p = 0.026) but not those for the other two sets of predictors, based on sweepings and PDD or sweepings and wipes. Overall, simulations of the Model using alternative exposure measures of petri dish dust (and possibly hand wipes) instead of vacuum cleaner dust and dust sweepings instead of soil provide predicted PbB which are generally consistent with each

  2. The influence of naturally-occurring organic acids on model estimates of lakewater acidification using the model of acidification of groundwater in catchments (MAGIC). Summary of research conducted during year 1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sullivan, T.J.; Eilers, J.M. [E and S Environmental Chemistry, Inc., Corvallis, OR (United States); Cosby, B.J. [Virginia Univ., Charlottesville, VA (United States). Dept. of Environmental Sciences; Driscoll, C.T. [Syracuse Univ., NY (United States). Dept. of Civil Engineering; Hemond, H.F. [Massachusetts Inst. of Tech., Cambridge, MA (United States). Dept. of Civil Engineering; Charles, D.F. [Academy of Natural Sciences of Philadelphia, PA (United States). Patrick Center for Environmental Research; Norton, S.A. [Maine Univ., Orono, ME (United States). Dept. of Geological Sciences

    1993-03-05

    A project for the US Department of Energy, entitled ``Incorporation of an organic acid representation into MAGIC (Model of Acidification of Groundwater in Catchments) and Testing of the Revised Model UsingIndependent Data Sources`` was initiated by E&S Environmental Chemistry, Inc. in March, 1992. Major components of the project include: improving the MAGIC model by incorporating a rigorous organic acid representation, based on empirical data and geochemical considerations, and testing the revised model using data from paleolimnological hindcasts of preindustrial chemistry for 33 Adirondack Mountain lakes, and the results of whole-catchment artificial acidification projects in Maine and Norway. The ongoing research in this project involves development of an organic acid representation to be incorporated into the MAGIC modeland testing of the improved model using three independent data sources. The research during Year 1 has included conducting two workshops to agree on an approach for the organic acid modeling, developing the organic subroutine and incorporating it into MAGIC (Task 1), conducing MAGIC hindcasts for Adirondack lakes and comparing the results with paleolimnological reconstructions (Task 2), and conducting site visits to the manipulation project sites in Maine and Norway. The purpose of this report is to provide a summary of the work that has been conducted on this project during Year 1. Tasks 1 and 2 have now been completed.

  3. Impact of Study Skills and Parent Education on First-Year GPA Among College Students With and Without ADHD: A Moderated Mediation Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gormley, Matthew J; Pinho, Trevor; Pollack, Brittany; Puzino, Kristina; Franklin, Melanie K; Busch, Chelsea; DuPaul, George J; Weyandt, Lisa L; Anastopoulos, Arthur D

    2018-02-01

    To test if the relationship between ADHD and academic achievement is mediated by service utilization and/or study skills, and if these mediation effects are moderated by parental education level. A bootstrapping method within structural equation modeling was used with data from 355 first year college students meeting strict criteria for ADHD or clearly without ADHD to test the mediation and moderation effects. Study skills, but not service utilization, significantly mediated the relationship between ADHD status and GPA; however, this relationship was not significant among students with at least one parent holding a master's degree or higher. Among first year college students study skills may be a more salient predictor of educational outcomes relative to ADHD status. Additional research into support services for college students with ADHD is needed, however, results suggest interventions targeting study skills may hold particular promise for these students.

  4. Evaluating the Predictive Impact of an Emergent Literacy Model on Dyslexia in Italian Children: A Four-Year Prospective Cohort Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bigozzi, Lucia; Tarchi, Christian; Pezzica, Sara; Pinto, Giuliana

    2016-01-01

    The strong differences in manifestation, prevalence, and incidence in dyslexia across languages invite studies in specific writing systems. In particular, the question of the role played by emergent literacy in opaque and transparent writing systems remains a fraught one. This research project tested, through a 4-year prospective cohort study, an emergent literacy model for the analysis of the characteristics of future dyslexic children and normally reading peers in Italian, a transparent writing system. A cohort of 450 children was followed from the last year of kindergarten to the third grade in their reading acquisition process. Dyslexic children were individuated (Grade 3), and their performances in kindergarten in textual competence, phonological awareness, and conceptual knowledge of the writing system were compared with a matched group of normally reading peers. Results showed the predictive relevance of the conceptual knowledge of the writing system. The study's implications are discussed. © Hammill Institute on Disabilities 2014.

  5. The IPM Wheat Model--results of a three-year study in North Rhine-Westphalia, Lower Saxony and Schleswig-Holstein.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verreet, J A; Heger, M; Oerke, E; Dehne, H W; Finger, I; Busse, C; Klink, H

    2003-01-01

    Under the primary utilisation of phytosanitary production factors such as selection of variety, crop rotation and N fertilisation according to plant requirements, the IPM Wheat Model comprises the elements diagnosis (qualitative = type of pathogen, quantitative = disease severity), scientifically grounded treatment thresholds which, as critical values in pathogen development, can be applied to define the optimum time of fungicide application, and pathogen-specific effective fungicides and application amounts. This leads to the location and year-specific optimised control of the pathogen and of the associated yield performance. After several years of development in Bavaria (from 1985 on) and Schleswig-Holstein (1993-1999), the model was tested as part of a project involving the Universities of Bonn and Kiel and the plant protection services of the German states of Lower Saxony, North Rhine-Westphalia and Schleswig-Holstein in a three-year study (1999-2001) in interregional locations (usually nine per state) with the winter wheat variety Ritmo (interregional indicator variety) and a further variety of regional importance in different variations (untreated control, three to four times growth stage-oriented variants for the determination of the absolute damage potential, IPM-variant). In exact records (approx. 12 dates per vegetation period), the disease epidemics were recorded weekly. With the genetically uniform indicator variety Ritmo, the results documented substantially differing year- and location-specific disease and yield patterns. Interregionally, a broad wheat pathogen spectrum (Puccinia striiformis, P. recondita, Septoria tritici, Stagonospora (syn. Septoria) nodorum, Blumeria (syn. Erysiphe) graminis, Pseudocercosporella herpotrichoides, Drechslera tritici-repentis) in differing composition, disease severity and damage effect was demonstrated. The heterogeneity of the infection and damage patterns was increased in the case of the second variety, in

  6. Predictive models and spatial variations of vital capacity in healthy people from 6 to 84 years old in China based on geographical factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Jinwei; Ge, Miao; Wang, Congxia; Jiang, Naigui; Zhang, Mingxin; Yun, Pujun

    2014-07-01

    The aim of this study was to provide a scientific basic for a unified standard of the reference value of vital capacity (VC) of healthy subjects from 6 and 84 years old in China. The normal reference value of VC was correlated to seven geographical factors, including altitude (X1), annual duration of sunshine (X2), annual mean air temperature (X3), annual mean relative humidity (X4), annual precipitation amount (X5), annual air temperature range (X6) and annual mean wind speed (X7). Predictive models were established by five different linear and nonlinear methods. The best models were selected by t-test. The geographical distribution map of VC in different age groups can be interpolated by Kriging's method using ArcGIS software. It was found that the correlation of VC and geographical factors in China was quite significant, especially for both males and females aged from 6 to 45. The best models were built for different age groups. The geographical distribution map shows the spatial variations of VC in China precisely. The VC of healthy subjects can be simulated by the best model or acquired from the geographical distribution map provided the geographical factors for that city or county of China are known.

  7. Use of a 3D Skull Model to Improve Accuracy in Cranioplasty for Autologous Flap Resorption in a 3-Year-Old Child.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maduri, Rodolfo; Viaroli, Edoardo; Levivier, Marc; Daniel, Roy T; Messerer, Mahmoud

    2017-01-01

    Cranioplasty is considered a simple reconstructive procedure, usually performed in a single stage. In some clinical conditions, such as in children with multifocal flap osteolysis, it could represent a surgical challenge. In these patients, the partially resorbed autologous flap should be removed and replaced with a precustomed prosthesis which should perfectly match the expected bone defect. We describe the technique used for a navigated cranioplasty in a 3-year-old child with multifocal autologous flap osteolysis. We decided to perform a cranioplasty using a custom-made hydroxyapatite porous ceramic flap. The prosthesis was produced with an epoxy resin 3D skull model of the patient, which included a removable flap corresponding to the planned cranioplasty. Preoperatively, a CT scan of the 3D skull model was performed without the removable flap. The CT scan images of the 3D skull model were merged with the preoperative 3D CT scan of the patient and navigated during the cranioplasty to define with precision the cranioplasty margins. After removal of the autologous resorbed flap, the hydroxyapatite prosthesis matched perfectly with the skull defect. The anatomical result was excellent. Thus, the implementation of cranioplasty with image merge navigation of a 3D skull model may improve cranioplasty accuracy, allowing precise anatomic reconstruction in complex skull defect cases. © 2017 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  8. The importance of socio-economic context for social marketing models for improving reproductive health: Evidence from 555 years of program experience

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rahaim Stephen

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Over the past two decades, social marketing programs have become an important element of the national family planning and HIV prevention strategy in several developing countries. As yet, there has not been any comprehensive empirical assessment to determine which of several social marketing models is most effective for a given socio-economic context. Such an assessment is urgently needed to inform the design of future social marketing programs, and to avoid that programs are designed using an ineffective model. Methods This study addresses this issue using a database of annual statistics about reproductive health oriented social marketing programs in over 70 countries. In total, the database covers 555 years of program experience with social marketing programs that distribute and promote the use of oral contraceptives and condoms. Specifically, our analysis assesses to what extent the model used by different reproductive health social marketing programs has varied across different socio-economic contexts. We then use random effects regression to test in which socio-economic context each of the models is most successful at increasing use of socially marketed oral contraceptives and condoms. Results The results show that there has been a tendency to design reproductive health social marketing program with a management structure that matches the local context. However, the evidence also shows that this has not always been the case. While socio-economic context clearly influences the effectiveness of some of the social marketing models, program maturity and the size of the target population appear equally important. Conclusions To maximize the effectiveness of future social marketing programs, it is essential that more effort is devoted to ensuring that such programs are designed using the model or approach that is most suitable for the local context.

  9. Transitions in cognitive test scores over 5 and 10 years in elderly people: Evidence for a model of age-related deficit accumulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rockwood Kenneth

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background On average, health worsens with age, but many people have periods of improvement. A stochastic model provides an excellent description of how such changes occur. Given that cognition also changes with age, we wondered whether the same model might also describe the accumulation of errors in cognitive test scores in community-dwelling older adults. Methods In this prospective cohort study, 8954 older people (aged 65+ at baseline from the Canadian Study of Health and Aging were followed for 10 years. Cognitive status was defined by the number of errors on the 100-point Modified Min-Mental State Examination. The error count was chosen to parallel the deficit count in the general model of aging, which is based on deficit accumulation. As with the deficit count, a Markov chain transition model was employed, with 4 parameters. Results On average, the chance of making errors increased linearly with the number of errors present at each time interval. Changes in cognitive states were described with high accuracy (R2 = 0.96 by a modified Poisson distribution, using four parameters: the background chance of accumulating additional errors, the chance of incurring more or fewer errors, given the existing number, and the corresponding background and incremental chances of dying. Conclusion The change in the number of errors in a cognitive test corresponded to a general model that also summarizes age-related changes in deficits. The model accounts for both improvement and deterioration and appears to represent a clinically relevant means of quantifying how various aspects of health status change with age.

  10. The importance of socio-economic context for social marketing models for improving reproductive health: evidence from 555 years of program experience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meekers, Dominique; Rahaim, Stephen

    2005-01-27

    Over the past two decades, social marketing programs have become an important element of the national family planning and HIV prevention strategy in several developing countries. As yet, there has not been any comprehensive empirical assessment to determine which of several social marketing models is most effective for a given socio-economic context. Such an assessment is urgently needed to inform the design of future social marketing programs, and to avoid that programs are designed using an ineffective model. This study addresses this issue using a database of annual statistics about reproductive health oriented social marketing programs in over 70 countries. In total, the database covers 555 years of program experience with social marketing programs that distribute and promote the use of oral contraceptives and condoms. Specifically, our analysis assesses to what extent the model used by different reproductive health social marketing programs has varied across different socio-economic contexts. We then use random effects regression to test in which socio-economic context each of the models is most successful at increasing use of socially marketed oral contraceptives and condoms. The results show that there has been a tendency to design reproductive health social marketing program with a management structure that matches the local context. However, the evidence also shows that this has not always been the case. While socio-economic context clearly influences the effectiveness of some of the social marketing models, program maturity and the size of the target population appear equally important. To maximize the effectiveness of future social marketing programs, it is essential that more effort is devoted to ensuring that such programs are designed using the model or approach that is most suitable for the local context.

  11. Supporting Third Year Medical Students' Skill Acquisition and Self-Efficacy with Coping Models and Process Feedback during Laparoscopic Knot Tying Simulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dempsey, Michael S; Kauffman, Douglas F

    2017-01-01

    Background: During the third year general surgery clerkship, medical students are required to develop laparoscopic knot-tying skills. Knot-tying skills studies often rely on objective variables (e.g., time, materials used, number of iterations) that lend themselves to correlational analysis of pre- and post-intervention skill level. This study differs by examining how instructional interventions-role modeling and feedback-affect medical students' skill acquisition and self-efficacy during a laparoscopic surgical simulation training session. Methods: Seventy-eight surgical clerkship students were assigned randomly to one cell of a 2X2 factorial design. Participants observed one of two types of role modeling (expert vs. coping) and received either process-oriented or outcome-oriented feedback during a 30-min laparoscopic training session. Participants also completed several surveys that assessed their interest in surgery and their self-efficacy for laparoscopic knot tying. Results: Coping model groups tended to perform better on the knot tying task, though this was less the case in the presence of outcome feedback. Expert model groups slightly outperformed the coping model group on the peg transfer task, but in the presence of outcome feedback they reported the lowest satisfaction with their performance and the lowest self-efficacy for the knot tying task. The coping model combined with process feedback had a positive influence on students' efficiency in learning the task, on their satisfaction with their performance, and on their self-efficacy for laparoscopic knot typing. Conclusions: Results are discussed relative to self-regulated learning theory.

  12. Comparative Cost-Effectiveness of Conservative or Intensive Blood Pressure Treatment Guidelines in Adults Aged 35-74 Years: The Cardiovascular Disease Policy Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moise, Nathalie; Huang, Chen; Rodgers, Anthony; Kohli-Lynch, Ciaran N; Tzong, Keane Y; Coxson, Pamela G; Bibbins-Domingo, Kirsten; Goldman, Lee; Moran, Andrew E

    2016-07-01

    The population health effect and cost-effectiveness of implementing intensive blood pressure goals in high-cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk adults have not been described. Using the CVD Policy Model, CVD events, treatment costs, quality-adjusted life years, and drug and monitoring costs were simulated over 2016 to 2026 for hypertensive patients aged 35 to 74 years. We projected the effectiveness and costs of hypertension treatment according to the 2003 Joint National Committee (JNC)-7 or 2014 JNC8 guidelines, and then for adults aged ≥50 years, we assessed the cost-effectiveness of adding an intensive goal of systolic blood pressure cost-effectiveness ratios cost-effective. JNC7 strategies treat more patients and are more costly to implement compared with JNC8 strategies. Adding intensive systolic blood pressure goals for high-risk patients prevents an estimated 43 000 and 35 000 annual CVD events incremental to JNC8 and JNC7, respectively. Intensive strategies save costs in men and are cost-effective in women compared with JNC8 alone. At a willingness-to-pay threshold of $50 000 per quality-adjusted life years gained, JNC8+intensive had the highest probability of cost-effectiveness in women (82%) and JNC7+intensive the highest probability of cost-effectiveness in men (100%). Assuming higher drug and monitoring costs, adding intensive goals for high-risk patients remained consistently cost-effective in men, but not always in women. Among patients aged 35 to 74 years, adding intensive blood pressure goals for high-risk groups to current national hypertension treatment guidelines prevents additional CVD deaths while saving costs provided that medication costs are controlled. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

  13. Behaviour of oceanic 137Cs following the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident for four years simulated numerically by a regional ocean model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsumune, D.; Tsubono, T.; Aoyama, M.; Misumi, K.; Tateda, Y.

    2015-12-01

    A series of accidents at the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant (1F NPP) following the earthquake and tsunami of 11 March 2011 resulted in the release of radioactive materials to the ocean by two major pathways, direct release from the accident site and atmospheric deposition.We reconstructed spatiotemporal variability of 137Cs activity in the regional ocean for four years by numerical model, such as a regional scale and the North Pacific scale oceanic dispersion models, an atmospheric transport model, a sediment transport model, a dynamic biological compartment model for marine biota and river runoff model. Direct release rate of 137Cs were estimated for four years after the accident by comparing simulated results and observed activities very close to the site. The estimated total amounts of directly release was 3.6±0.7 PBq. Directly release rate of 137Cs decreased exponentially with time by the end of December 2012 and then, was almost constant. Decrease rate were quite small after 2013. The daily release rate of 137Cs was estimated to be the order of magnitude of 1010 Bq/day by the end of March 2015. The activity of directly released 137Cs was detectable only in the coastal zone after December 2012. Simulated 137Cs activities attributable to direct release were in good agreement with observed activities, a result that implies the estimated direct release rate was reasonable. There is no observed data of 137Cs activity in the ocean from 11 to 21 March 2011. Observed data of marine biota should reflect the history of 137Cs activity in this early period. We reconstructed the history of 137Cs activity in this early period by considering atmospheric deposition, river input, rain water runoff from the 1F NPP site. The comparisons between simulated 137Cs activity of marine biota by a dynamic biological compartment and observed data also suggest that simulated 137Cs activity attributable to atmospheric deposition was underestimated in this early period. The

  14. A New Hybrid Spatio-temporal Model for Estimating Daily Multi-year PM2.5 Concentrations Across Northeastern USA Using High Resolution Aerosol Optical Depth Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kloog, Itai; Chudnovsky, Alexandra A.; Just, Allan C.; Nordio, Francesco; Koutrakis, Petros; Coull, Brent A.; Lyapustin, Alexei; Wang, Yujie; Schwartz, Joel

    2014-01-01

    The use of satellite-based aerosol optical depth (AOD) to estimate fine particulate matter PM(sub 2.5) for epidemiology studies has increased substantially over the past few years. These recent studies often report moderate predictive power, which can generate downward bias in effect estimates. In addition, AOD measurements have only moderate spatial resolution, and have substantial missing data. We make use of recent advances in MODIS satellite data processing algorithms (Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC), which allow us to use 1 km (versus currently available 10 km) resolution AOD data.We developed and cross validated models to predict daily PM(sub 2.5) at a 1X 1 km resolution across the northeastern USA (New England, New York and New Jersey) for the years 2003-2011, allowing us to better differentiate daily and long term exposure between urban, suburban, and rural areas. Additionally, we developed an approach that allows us to generate daily high-resolution 200 m localized predictions representing deviations from the area 1 X 1 km grid predictions. We used mixed models regressing PM(sub 2.5) measurements against day-specific random intercepts, and fixed and random AOD and temperature slopes. We then use generalized additive mixed models with spatial smoothing to generate grid cell predictions when AOD was missing. Finally, to get 200 m localized predictions, we regressed the residuals from the final model for each monitor against the local spatial and temporal variables at each monitoring site. Our model performance was excellent (mean out-of-sample R(sup 2) = 0.88). The spatial and temporal components of the out-of-sample results also presented very good fits to the withheld data (R(sup 2) = 0.87, R(sup)2 = 0.87). In addition, our results revealed very little bias in the predicted concentrations (Slope of predictions versus withheld observations = 0.99). Our daily model results show high predictive accuracy at high spatial resolutions

  15. Modeling the Severity of Drinking Consequences in First-Year College Women: An Item Response Theory Analysis of the Rutgers Alcohol Problem Index*

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohn, Amy M.; Hagman, Brett T.; Graff, Fiona S.; Noel, Nora E.

    2011-01-01

    Objective: The present study examined the latent continuum of alcohol-related negative consequences among first-year college women using methods from item response theory and classical test theory. Method: Participants (N = 315) were college women in their freshman year who reported consuming any alcohol in the past 90 days and who completed assessments of alcohol consumption and alcohol-related negative consequences using the Rutgers Alcohol Problem Index. Results: Item response theory analyses showed poor model fit for five items identified in the Rutgers Alcohol Problem Index. Two-parameter item response theory logistic models were applied to the remaining 18 items to examine estimates of item difficulty (i.e., severity) and discrimination parameters. The item difficulty parameters ranged from 0.591 to 2.031, and the discrimination parameters ranged from 0.321 to 2.371. Classical test theory analyses indicated that the omission of the five misfit items did not significantly alter the psychometric properties of the construct. Conclusions: Findings suggest that those consequences that had greater severity and discrimination parameters may be used as screening items to identify female problem drinkers at risk for an alcohol use disorder. PMID:22051212

  16. The Effects of Model-Based Educational Intervention on Self-medication Behavior in Mothers with Children less than 2- year

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rostam Heydartabar

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Background: Self-medication by people is one of the major issues in the world that can be lead to numerous medical and economic problems, this especially issue in children under 2 years who are at the age of growth and development have great importance. The aim of this study was investigate the effects of model-based educational interventions on self-medication behavior in mothers with children under 2 years of age who referred to the health centers of Firoozkooh city (Iran. Materials and Methods: This study was quasi - experimental interventional study. The study population consisted of mothers with children under 2 years old referring to health centers of the Firoozkooh city, Iran. The data collection tool was researcher made questionnaire which its validity and reliability was assessed than was used. The required information was collected before and after the educational intervention. Then 4 months after the educational intervention, evaluation was done and data analysis was using SPSS-20. Results: Significant difference was not found between mean scores of knowledge, perceived sensitivity, severity, benefits, barriers, self-efficacy with performance (self-medication before the educational intervention (P>0.05. But after the educational intervention, statistically significant difference was found between mean scores of knowledge, perceived sensitivity, severity, benefits, barriers, and self-efficacy with performance (P

  17. Conceptual model for millennial climate variability: a possible combined solar-thermohaline circulation origin for the {proportional_to}1,500-year cycle

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dima, Mihai [Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven (Germany); University of Bucharest, Department of Atmospheric Physics, Faculty of Physics, P.O. Box 11440, Magurele, Bucharest (Romania); Lohmann, Gerrit [Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven (Germany)

    2009-02-15

    Dansgaard-Oeschger and Heinrich events are the most pronounced climatic changes over the last 120,000 years. Although many of their properties were derived from climate reconstructions, the associated physical mechanisms are not yet fully understood. These events are paced by a {proportional_to}1,500-year periodicity whose origin remains unclear. In a conceptual model approach, we show that this millennial variability can originate from rectification of an external (solar) forcing, and suggest that the thermohaline circulation, through a threshold response, could be the rectifier. We argue that internal threshold response of the thermohaline circulation (THC) to solar forcing is more likely to produce the observed DO cycles than amplification of weak direct {proportional_to}1,500-year forcing of unknown origin, by THC. One consequence of our concept is that the millennial variability is viewed as a derived mode without physical processes on its characteristic time scale. Rather, the mode results from the linear representation in the Fourier space of nonlinearly transformed fundamental modes. (orig.)

  18. Urology Residents' Experience and Attitude Toward Surgical Simulation: Presenting our 4-Year Experience With a Multi-institutional, Multi-modality Simulation Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chow, Alexander K; Sherer, Benjamin A; Yura, Emily; Kielb, Stephanie; Kocjancic, Ervin; Eggener, Scott; Turk, Thomas; Park, Sangtae; Psutka, Sarah; Abern, Michael; Latchamsetty, Kalyan C; Coogan, Christopher L

    2017-11-01

    To evaluate the Urological resident's attitude and experience with surgical simulation in residency education using a multi-institutional, multi-modality model. Residents from 6 area urology training programs rotated through simulation stations in 4 consecutive sessions from 2014 to 2017. Workshops included GreenLight photovaporization of the prostate, ureteroscopic stone extraction, laparoscopic peg transfer, 3-dimensional laparoscopy rope pass, transobturator sling placement, intravesical injection, high definition video system trainer, vasectomy, and Urolift. Faculty members provided teaching assistance, objective scoring, and verbal feedback. Participants completed a nonvalidated questionnaire evaluating utility of the workshop and soliciting suggestions for improvement. Sixty-three of 75 participants (84%) (postgraduate years 1-6) completed the exit questionnaire. Median rating of exercise usefulness on a scale of 1-10 ranged from 7.5 to 9. On a scale of 0-10, cumulative median scores of the course remained high over 4 years: time limit per station (9; interquartile range [IQR] 2), faculty instruction (9, IQR 2), ease of use (9, IQR 2), face validity (8, IQR 3), and overall course (9, IQR 2). On multivariate analysis, there was no difference in rating of domains between postgraduate years. Sixty-seven percent (42/63) believe that simulation training should be a requirement of Urology residency. Ninety-seven percent (63/65) viewed the laboratory as beneficial to their education. This workshop model is a valuable training experience for residents. Most participants believe that surgical simulation is beneficial and should be a requirement for Urology residency. High ratings of usefulness for each exercise demonstrated excellent face validity provided by the course. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Improved nurse job satisfaction and job retention with the transition from a "mandatory consultation" model to a "semiclosed" surgical intensive care unit: a 1-year prospective evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haut, Elliott R; Sicoutris, Corinna P; Meredith, Denise M; Sonnad, Seema S; Reilly, Patrick M; Schwab, C William; Hanson, C William; Gracias, Vicente H

    2006-02-01

    The change from a "mandatory consultation" to a "semiclosed" surgical intensive care unit (SICU) model will impact nurses considerably. We hypothesize that nurse job satisfaction, job turnover rates, and hospital costs for temporary agency nurses will improve and these improvements will be more dramatic in SICU sections with greater involvement of a dedicated surgical critical care service (SCCS). Prospective longitudinal survey. Tertiary-care university hospital. SICU staff nurses. Change from mandatory consultation to semiclosed SICU. We surveyed SICU nurses during the year-long transition to a semiclosed SICU service (five time points, 3-month intervals). The first four surveys included ten questions on nurse job satisfaction. The final survey included two additional questions. All questions were on a 5-point Likert scale (1 = strongly disagree to 5 = strongly agree). Nurse job turnover rates and money spent on agency nurses were compared over time; 503 of a possible 914 surveys were completed (55% overall return rate). Nurse job satisfaction scores significantly improved over time for all questions (p job turnover rate dropped from 25% to 16% (p = .15). The scores for both year-end statements ("I am more satisfied with my job now than 1 year ago" and "The SCCS management of all orders has improved my job satisfaction") were significantly higher in sections with greater SCCS involvement (p = .0070 and p job satisfaction improved significantly with the transition to a semiclosed SICU. This higher satisfaction was associated with a significant decrease in spending on temporary agency nurses and a trend toward increased staff nurse job retention. SICU sections with greater SCCS involvement had more dramatic improvements. This semiclosed SICU model may help retain SICU nurses in a competitive job market in which experienced nurses are in short supply.

  20. Verification of a prognostic meteorological and air pollution model for year-long predictions in the Kwinana industrial region of Western Australia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hurley, P.J.; Blockley, A.; Rayner, K.

    2001-01-01

    A prognostic air pollution model (TAPM) has been used to predict meteorology and sulphur dioxide concentration in the Kwinana industrial region of Western Australia for 1997, with a view to verifying TAPM for use in environmental impact assessments and associated air pollution studies. The regulatory plume model, DISPMOD, developed for the Kwinana region has also been run using both an observationally based meteorological file (denoted DISPMOD-O) and using a TAPM-based meteorological file (denoted DISPMOD-T). TAPM predictions of the meteorology for 1997 compare well with the observed values at each of the five monitoring sites. Root mean square error and index of agreement values for temperature and winds indicate that TAPM performs well at predicting the meteorology, compared to the performance of similar models from other studies. The yearly average, 99.9 percentile, maximum and mean of the top 10 ground-level sulphur dioxide concentrations for 1997 were predicted well by all of the model runs, although DISPMOD-O and DISPMOD-T tended to overpredict extreme statistics at sites furthest from the sources. Overall, TAPM performed better than DISPMOD-O, which in turn performed better than DISPMOD-T, for all statistics considered, but we consider that all three sets of results are sufficiently accurate for regulatory applications. The mean of the top ten concentrations is generally considered to be a robust performance statistic for air pollution applications, and we show that compared to the site-averaged observed value of 95μgm -3 , TAPM predicted 94μgm -3 , DISPMOD-O predicted 111μgm -3 and DISPMOD-T predicted 125μgm -3 . The results indicate that the prognostic meteorological and air pollution approach to regulatory modelling used by TAPM, gives comparable or better results than the current regulatory approach used in the Kwinana region (DISPMOD), and also indicates that the approach of using a currently accepted regulatory model with a prognostically

  1. Interannual control of plankton communities by deep winter mixing and prey/predator interactions in the NW Mediterranean: Results from a 30-year 3D modeling study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Auger, P. A.; Ulses, C.; Estournel, C.; Stemmann, L.; Somot, S.; Diaz, F.

    2014-05-01

    A realistic modeling approach is designed to address the role of winter mixing on the interannual variability of plankton dynamics in the north-western (NW) Mediterranean basin. For the first time, a high-resolution coupled hydrodynamic-biogeochemical model (Eco3m-S) covering a 30-year period (1976-2005) is validated on available in situ and satellite data for the NW Mediterranean. In this region, cold, dry winds in winter often lead to deep convection and strong upwelling of nutrients into the euphotic layer. High nutrient contents at the end of winter then support the development of a strong spring bloom of phytoplankton. Model results indicate that annual primary production is not affected by winter mixing due to seasonal balance (minimum in winter and maximum in spring). However, the total annual water column-integrated phytoplankton biomass appears to be favored by winter mixing because zooplankton grazing activity is low in winter and early spring. This reduced grazing is explained here by the rarefaction of prey due to both light limitation and the effect of mixing-induced dilution on prey/predator interactions. A negative impact of winter mixing on winter zooplankton biomass is generally simulated except for mesozooplankton. This difference is assumed to stem from the lower parameterized mortality, top trophic position and detritivorous diet of mesozooplankton in the model. Moreover, model suggests that the variability of annual mesozooplankton biomass is principally modulated by the effects of winter mixing on winter biomass. Thus, interannual variability of winter nutrient contents in the euphotic layer, resulting from winter mixing, would control spring primary production and thus annual mesozooplankton biomass. Our results show a bottom-up control of mesozooplankton communities, as observed at a coastal location of the Ligurian Sea.

  2. The Effect of Education on Preventive Behaviors of Failure to Thrive in Mothers with Children Aged One to Five Years: Applied Health Belief Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mahtab Navabi

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background: One of the common and important health problems is failure to thrive in childhood. The purpose of this study was to determine the effect of education on preventive behaviors of failure to thrive in mothers with children based on health belief model. Materials and Methods: This study is an interventional one in which 100 mothers with children one to five years involved (samples divided into two case and control groups, each of 50 sampling was done by a simple random method. For collecting information, a researcher-made questionnaire based on the health belief model and performance check list were used. Then, case group was trained for one month. 3 months after training, data were gathered and analyzed by Spss20 software. In addition to descriptive statistics, tests such as Chi-square, paired t-test and independent T-test were used. Results: The mean age of case and control was 29.98±5.51 and 25.35±5.30 years old, respectively. The average age of children was 23.31 ± 13.14 and 27.55 ± 14.01months, respectively. Before the intervention, no significant difference was seen between groups. The average score in case group before intervention was as: knowledge(31.87±14.24, perceived susceptibility(64.23±5.86, perceived severity(64.41±9.34, perceived benefits(61.75±6.79, perceived barriers(67.91±8.14, self-efficacy(68.00±7.87, cues to action(44.53±6.82 and action(70.00±9.77. However, after the intervention, significant differences between groups in all variables were obserred. Conclusion: According to the results, education based on health belief model is recommended for promoting preventive behaviors of failure to thrive.

  3. Stochastic modelling of basal temperatures in divide regions of the Antarctic ice sheet over the last 1.5 million years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Liefferinge, Brice; Pattyn, Frank; Cavitte, Marie G. P.; Young, Duncan A.; Roberts, Jason L.

    2017-04-01

    The quest for oldest ice in Antarctica has recently been launched through an EU H2020 project (Beyond EPICA - Oldest Ice) and aims at identifying suitable areas for a potential future drilling. Retrieving an ice core of such age is essential to understand the relation between orbital changes and atmospheric composition during the mid-Pliocene transition. However, sites for a potential undisturbed record of 1.5 million-year old ice in Antarctica are difficult to find and require slow-moving ice (preferably an ice divide) and basal conditions that are not disturbed by large topographic variations. Furthermore, ice should be sufficiently thick but cold basal conditions should still prevail, since basal melting would destroy the bottom layers. Therefore, ice-flow conditions and thermodynamic characteristics are crucial for identifying potential locations of undisturbed ice. Van Liefferinge and Pattyn (2013) identified suitable areas based on a pan-Antarctic simplified thermodynamic ice sheet model and demonstrated that uncertainty in geothermal conditions remain a major unknown. In order to refine these estimates, and provide uncertainties, we employ a full thermo-mechanically coupled higher-order ice sheet model (Pattyn, 2003; Pattyn et al., 2004). Initial conditions for the calculations are based on an inversion of basal slipperiness, based on observed surface topography (Pollard and DeConto, 2012; Pattyn, in prep.). Uncertainties in geothermal conditions are introduced using the convolution of two Gaussian probability density functions: (a) the reconstruction of the Antarctic ice sheet geometry and testing ice thickness variability over the last 2 million years (Pollard and DeConto, 2009) and (b) the surface temperature reconstruction over the same period (Snyder et al., 2016). The standard deviation, the skewness and the kurtosis of the whole Antarctic ice sheet are analyzed to observe likely probable melt conditions. Finally, we focus on model results in the

  4. Modeled and measured glacier change and related glaciological, hydrological, and meteorological conditions at South Cascade Glacier, Washington, balance and water years 2006 and 2007

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bidlake, William R.; Josberger, Edward G.; Savoca, Mark E.

    2010-01-01

    Winter snow accumulation and summer snow and ice ablation were measured at South Cascade Glacier, Washington, to estimate glacier mass balance quantities for balance years 2006 and 2007. Mass balances were computed with assistance from a new model that was based on the works of other glacier researchers. The model, which was developed for mass balance practitioners, coupled selected meteorological and glaciological data to systematically estimate daily mass balance at selected glacier sites. The North Cascade Range in the vicinity of South Cascade Glacier accumulated approximately average to above average winter snow packs during 2006 and 2007. Correspondingly, the balance years 2006 and 2007 maximum winter snow mass balances of South Cascade Glacier, 2.61 and 3.41 meters water equivalent, respectively, were approximately equal to or more positive (larger) than the average of such balances since 1959. The 2006 glacier summer balance, -4.20 meters water equivalent, was among the four most negative since 1959. The 2007 glacier summer balance, -3.63 meters water equivalent, was among the 14 most negative since 1959. The glacier continued to lose mass during 2006 and 2007, as it commonly has since 1953, but the loss was much smaller during 2007 than during 2006. The 2006 glacier net balance, -1.59 meters water equivalent, was 1.02 meters water equivalent more negative (smaller) than the average during 1953-2005. The 2007 glacier net balance, -0.22 meters water equivalent, was 0.37 meters water equivalent less negative (larger) than the average during 1953-2006. The 2006 accumulation area ratio was less than 0.10, owing to isolated patches of accumulated snow that endured the 2006 summer season. The 2006 equilibrium line altitude was higher than the glacier. The 2007 accumulation area ratio and equilibrium line altitude were 0.60 and 1,880 meters, respectively. Accompanying the glacier mass losses were retreat of the terminus and reduction of total glacier area. The

  5. Tests of bioaccumulation models for polychlorinated biphenyl compounds: a study of young-of-the-year bluefish in the Hudson River estuary, USA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leblanc, Lawrence A; Buckel, Jeffrey A; Conover, David O; Brownawell, Bruce J

    2006-08-01

    A field-based study regarding uptake of polychlorinated biphenyl compounds (PCBs) by young-of-the-year (YOY) bluefish (Pomatomus saltatrix) was initiated to test a steady-state model of bioaccumulation and trophic transfer in a rapidly growing fish. Determination of prey composition as well as size-dependent growth and specific consumption rates for YOY bluefish from separate field and laboratory studies enabled the input of these species-specific parameters into the model. Furthermore, the time and duration of the exposure of YOY bluefish to dissolved PCBs from a well-characterized system (Hudson River, USA) was well known. Patterns of accumulation of individual PCB congeners differed relative to the accumulation of total PCBs, with the greatest net accumulation occurring for the higher-molecular-weight congeners. Comparison of lipid-normalized bioaccumulation factors (BAFs) with the octanol-water partition coefficients of individual PCB congeners revealed bluefish to be above the BAFs predicted by lipid-based equilibrium partitioning, suggesting that uptake from food is an important source of PCBs in YOY bluefish. Comparison of measured BAFs with values predicted by a steady-state, food-chain model showed good first-order agreement.

  6. Evaluation of Cardiovascular Death, Attributed to CO Exposure in Tehran Megacity in During a Five-Year Period (2010-2014 by Using AirQ Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Majid Kermani

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: Air pollution in large cities is one of the main difficulties that have harmful effects on humans and the environment and cause various diseases including cardiovascular disease. So, present study with aim of Estimation of Cardiovascular Death, Attributed to CO Exposure in Tehran Megacity in during a five-year period (2010-2014 by using AirQ Model were performed. Materials and Methods: This Study was a descriptive–analytic at first, hourly data of pollutants were taken from the environmental protection agency Tehran and Air Quality Control Company and validated according to the WHO guidelines. Required statistical parameters calculated for health effect quantifying and finally processed data converted to input and requirements AirQ model data and health effects quantifying were performed using this model. The final results on deaths due to cardiovascular disease were presented in tables and graphs format. Results: Results showed annual average concentration of CO in Tehran in 2010-2014 are 49, 31, 11,12,21,76 mg/ m3 respectively. In addition, the number of cardiovascular deaths in 2011-2015 is 52,37,29,31,42 respectively Conclusion: According to the results, CO as well as other pollutants can adversely affect human health. Due to high levels of air pollution and its related health consequences, particularly cardiovascular disease, should take appropriate measures to reduce air pollution.

  7. Evaluation of land surface model simulations of evapotranspiration over a 12-year crop succession: impact of soil hydraulic and vegetation properties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garrigues, S.; Olioso, A.; Calvet, J. C.; Martin, E.; Lafont, S.; Moulin, S.; Chanzy, A.; Marloie, O.; Buis, S.; Desfonds, V.; Bertrand, N.; Renard, D.

    2015-07-01

    Evapotranspiration has been recognized as one of the most uncertain terms in the surface water balance simulated by land surface models. In this study, the SURFEX/ISBA-A-gs (Interaction Sol-Biosphere-Atmosphere) simulations of evapotranspiration are assessed at the field scale over a 12-year Mediterranean crop succession. The model is evaluated in its standard implementation which relies on the use of the ISBA pedotransfer estimates of the soil properties. The originality of this work consists in explicitly representing the succession of crop cycles and inter-crop bare soil periods in the simulations and assessing its impact on the dynamics of simulated and measured evapotranspiration over a long period of time. The analysis focuses on key parameters which drive the simulation of ET, namely the rooting depth, the soil moisture at saturation, the soil moisture at field capacity and the soil moisture at wilting point. A sensitivity analysis is first conducted to quantify the relative contribution of each parameter on ET simulation over 12 years. The impact of the estimation method used to retrieve the soil parameters (pedotransfer function, laboratory and field methods) on ET is then analysed. The benefit of representing the variations in time of the rooting depth and wilting point is evaluated. Finally, the propagation of uncertainties in the soil parameters on ET simulations is quantified through a Monte Carlo analysis and compared with the uncertainties triggered by the mesophyll conductance which is a key above-ground driver of the stomatal conductance. This work shows that evapotranspiration mainly results from the soil evaporation when it is continuously simulated over a Mediterranean crop succession. This results in a high sensitivity of simulated evapotranspiration to uncertainties in the soil moisture at field capacity and the soil moisture at saturation, both of which drive the simulation of soil evaporation. Field capacity was proved to be the most

  8. Performance of STICS model to predict rainfed corn evapotranspiration and biomass evaluated for 6 years between 1995 and 2006 using daily aggregated eddy covariance fluxes and ancillary measurements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pattey, Elizabeth; Jégo, Guillaume; Bourgeois, Gaétan

    2010-05-01

    Verifying the performance of process-based crop growth models to predict evapotranspiration and crop biomass is a key component of the adaptation of agricultural crop production to climate variations. STICS, developed by INRA, was part of the models selected by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada to be implemented for environmental assessment studies on climate variations, because of its built-in ability to assimilate biophysical descriptors such as LAI derived from satellite imagery and its open architecture. The model prediction of shoot biomass was calibrated using destructive biomass measurements over one season, by adjusting six cultivar parameters and three generic plant parameters to define two grain corn cultivars adapted to the 1000-km long Mixedwood Plains ecozone. Its performance was then evaluated using a database of 40 years-sites of corn destructive biomass and yield. In this study we evaluate the temporal response of STICS evapotranspiration and biomass accumulation predictions against estimates using daily aggregated eddy covariance fluxes. The flux tower was located in an experimental farm south of Ottawa and measurements carried out over corn fields in 1995, 1996, 1998, 2000, 2002 and 2006. Daytime and nighttime fluxes were QC/QA and gap-filled separately. Soil respiration was partitioned to calculate the corn net daily CO2 uptake, which was converted into dry biomass. Out of the six growing seasons, three (1995, 1998, 2002) had water stress periods during corn grain filling. Year 2000 was cool and wet, while 1996 had heat and rainfall distributed evenly over the season and 2006 had a wet spring. STICS can predict evapotranspiration using either crop coefficients, when wind speed and air moisture are not available, or resistance. The first approach provided higher prediction for all the years than the resistance approach and the flux measurements. The dynamic of evapotranspiration prediction of STICS was very good for the growing seasons without

  9. Eight New Luminous z > 6 Quasars Selected via SED Model Fitting of VISTA, WISE and Dark Energy Survey Year 1 Observations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Reed, S.L.; et al.

    2017-01-17

    We present the discovery and spectroscopic confirmation with the ESO NTT and Gemini South telescopes of eight new 6.0 < z < 6.5 quasars with z$_{AB}$ < 21.0. These quasars were photometrically selected without any star-galaxy morphological criteria from 1533 deg$^{2}$ using SED model fitting to photometric data from the Dark Energy Survey (g, r, i, z, Y), the VISTA Hemisphere Survey (J, H, K) and the Wide-Field Infrared Survey Explorer (W1, W2). The photometric data was fitted with a grid of quasar model SEDs with redshift dependent Lyman-{\\alpha} forest absorption and a range of intrinsic reddening as well as a series of low mass cool star models. Candidates were ranked using on a SED-model based $\\chi^{2}$-statistic, which is extendable to other future imaging surveys (e.g. LSST, Euclid). Our spectral confirmation success rate is 100% without the need for follow-up photometric observations as used in other studies of this type. Combined with automatic removal of the main types of non-astrophysical contaminants the method allows large data sets to be processed without human intervention and without being over run by spurious false candidates. We also present a robust parametric redshift estimating technique that gives comparable accuracy to MgII and CO based redshift estimators. We find two z $\\sim$ 6.2 quasars with HII near zone sizes < 3 proper Mpc which could indicate that these quasars may be young with ages < 10$^6$ - 10$^7$ years or lie in over dense regions of the IGM. The z = 6.5 quasar VDESJ0224-4711 has J$_{AB}$ = 19.75 is the second most luminous quasar known with z > 6.5.

  10. Eight new luminous z ≥ 6 quasars discovered via SED model fitting of VISTA, WISE and Dark Energy Survey Year 1 observations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reed, S. L.; McMahon, R. G.; Martini, P.; Banerji, M.; Auger, M.

    2017-01-01

    Here, we present the discovery and spectroscopic confirmation with the European Southern Observatory New Technology Telescope (NTT) and Gemini South telescopes of eight new, and the rediscovery of two previously known, 6.0 < z < 6.5 quasars with zAB < 21.0. These quasars were photometrically selected without any morphological criteria from 1533 deg2 using spectral energy distribution (SED) model fitting to photometric data from Dark Energy Survey (g, r, i, z, Y), VISTA Hemisphere Survey (J, H, K) and Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (W1, W2). The photometric data were fitted with a grid of quasar model SEDs with redshift-dependent Ly α forest absorption and a range of intrinsic reddening as well as a series of low-mass cool star models. Candidates were ranked using an SED-model-based χ2-statistic, which is extendable to other future imaging surveys (e.g. LSST and Euclid). Our spectral confirmation success rate is 100 per cent without the need for follow-up photometric observations as used in other studies of this type. Combined with automatic removal of the main types of non-astrophysical contaminants, the method allows large data sets to be processed without human intervention and without being overrun by spurious false candidates. We also present a robust parametric redshift estimator that gives comparable accuracy to Mg ii and CO-based redshift estimators. We find two z ~6.2 quasars with H ii near zone sizes ≤3 proper Mpc that could indicate that these quasars may be young with ages ≲ 10 6 -10 7 years or lie in over dense regions of the IGM. The z = 6.5 quasar VDES J0224–4711 has JAB = 19.75 and is the second most luminous quasar known with z ≥ 6.5.

  11. Advances in Monitoring, Modelling and Forecasting Volcanic Ash Plumes over the Past 5 Years and the Impact on Preparedness from the London VAAC Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, D. S.; Lisk, I.

    2015-12-01

    Hosted and run by the Met Office, the London VAAC (Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre) is responsible for issuing advisories on the location and likely dispersion of ash clouds originating from volcanoes in the North East Atlantic, primarily from Iceland. These advisories and additional guidance products are used by the civil aviation community to make decisions on airspace flight management. London VAAC has specialist forecasters who use a combination of volcano source data, satellite-based, ground-based and aircraft observations, weather forecast models and dispersion models. Since the eruption of the Icelandic volcano Eyjafjallajökull in 2010, which resulted in the decision by many northern European countries to impose significant restrictions on the use of their airspace, London VAAC has been active in further developing its volcanic ash monitoring, modelling and forecasting capabilities, collaborating with research organisations, industry, other VAACs, Meteorological Services and the Volcano Observatory in Iceland. It has been necessary to advance operational capabilities to address evolving requirements, including for more quantitative assessments of volcanic ash in the atmosphere. Here we summarise advances in monitoring, modelling and forecasting of volcanic ash plumes over the past 5 years from the London VAAC perspective, and the realization of science into operations. We also highlight the importance of collaborative activities, such as the 'VAAC Best Practice' Workshop, where information is exchanged between all nine VAACs worldwide on the operational practices in monitoring and forecasting volcanic ash, with the aim of working toward a more harmonized service for decision makers in the aviation community. We conclude on an evaluation of how better we are prepared for the next significant ash-rich Icelandic eruption, and the challenges still remaining.

  12. Validation of a new mortality risk prediction model for people 65 years and older in northwest Russia: The Crystal risk score.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turusheva, Anna; Frolova, Elena; Bert, Vaes; Hegendoerfer, Eralda; Degryse, Jean-Marie

    2017-07-01

    Prediction models help to make decisions about further management in clinical practice. This study aims to develop a mortality risk score based on previously identified risk predictors and to perform internal and external validations. In a population-based prospective cohort study of 611 community-dwelling individuals aged 65+ in St. Petersburg (Russia), all-cause mortality risks over 2.5 years follow-up were determined based on the results obtained from anthropometry, medical history, physical performance tests, spirometry and laboratory tests. C-statistic, risk reclassification analysis, integrated discrimination improvement analysis, decision curves analysis, internal validation and external validation were performed. Older adults were at higher risk for mortality [HR (95%CI)=4.54 (3.73-5.52)] when two or more of the following components were present: poor physical performance, low muscle mass, poor lung function, and anemia. If anemia was combined with high C-reactive protein (CRP) and high B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) was added the HR (95%CI) was slightly higher (5.81 (4.73-7.14)) even after adjusting for age, sex and comorbidities. Our models were validated in an external population of adults 80+. The extended model had a better predictive capacity for cardiovascular mortality [HR (95%CI)=5.05 (2.23-11.44)] compared to the baseline model [HR (95%CI)=2.17 (1.18-4.00)] in the external population. We developed and validated a new risk prediction score that may be used to identify older adults at higher risk for mortality in Russia. Additional studies need to determine which targeted interventions improve the outcomes of these at-risk individuals. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. Climate to fish: Synthesizing field work, data and models in a 39-year retrospective analysis of seasonal processes on the eastern Bering Sea shelf and slope

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ortiz, Ivonne; Aydin, Kerim; Hermann, Albert J.; Gibson, Georgina A.; Punt, André E.; Wiese, Francis K.; Eisner, Lisa B.; Ferm, Nissa; Buckley, Troy W.; Moffitt, Elizabeth A.; Ianelli, James N.; Murphy, James; Dalton, Michael; Cheng, Wei; Wang, Muyin; Hedstrom, Kate; Bond, Nicholas A.; Curchitser, Enrique N.; Boyd, Charlotte

    2016-12-01

    We combined field data and the output from a climate-to-fish coupled biophysical model to calculate weekly climatologies and 1971-2009 time series of physical and biological drivers for 16 distinct regions of the eastern Bering Sea shelf and slope. We focus on spatial trends and physical-biological interactions as a framework to compare model output to localized or season-specific observations. Data on pollock (≥8 cm) diet were used to evaluate energy flows and zooplankton dynamics predicted by the model. Model validation shows good agreement to sea-ice cover albeit with a one month delay in ice retreat. Likewise, the timing of spring phytoplankton blooms in the model were delayed approximately one month in the south and extend further into summer, but the relative timing between the spring and fall bloom peaks was consistent with observations. Ice-related primary producers may shift the timing of the spring bloom maximum biomass earlier in years when sea ice was still present after mid-March in the southern regions. Including the effects of explicit, dynamic fish predation on zooplankton in the model shifts the seasonal spring peak and distribution of zooplankton later in the year relative to simulations with implicit predation dependent only on zooplankton biomass and temperature; the former capturing the dynamic demand on zooplankton prey by fish. Pollock diets based on stomach samples collected in late fall and winter from 1982-2013 show overwintering euphausiids and small pollock as key prey items in the outer and southern Bering Sea shelf; a characteristic not currently present in the model. The model captured two large-scale gradients, supported by field data, characterizing the overall dynamics: 1) inshore to off-shelf physical and biological differences with a gradient in inter-annual variability from higher frequency inshore to lower frequency offshore; and 2) latitudinal gradients in the timing of events. The combined effects of length of day

  14. The Teach for America RockCorps, Year 1: Turning Authentic Research Experiences in Geophysics for STEM Teachers into Modeling Instruction™ in High School Classrooms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garrison, D. R., Jr.; Neubauer, H.; Barber, T. J.; Griffith, W. A.

    2015-12-01

    National reform efforts such as the Next Generation Science Standards, Modeling Instruction™, and Project Lead the Way (PLTW) seek to more closely align K-12 students' STEM learning experiences with the practices of scientific and engineering inquiry. These reform efforts aim to lead students toward deeper understandings constructed through authentic scientific and engineering inquiry in classrooms, particularly via model building and testing, more closely mirroring the professional practice of scientists and engineers, whereas traditional instructional approaches have typically been lecture-driven. In this vein, we describe the approach taken in the first year of the Teach for America (TFA) RockCorps, a five-year, NSF-sponsored project designed to provide authentic research experiences for secondary teachers and foster the development of Geophysics-themed teaching materials through cooperative lesson plan development and purchase of scientific equipment. Initially, two teachers were selected from the local Dallas-Fort Worth Region of TFA to participate in original research studying the failure of rocks under impulsive loads using a Split-Hopkinson-Pressure Bar (SHPB). For the teachers, this work provides a context from which to derive Geophysics-themed lesson plans for their courses, Physics/Pre-AP and Principles of Engineering (POE), offered at two large public high schools in Dallas ISD. The Physics course will incorporate principles of seismic wave propagation to allow students to develop a model of wave behavior, including velocity, refraction, and resonance, and apply the model to predict propagation properties of a variety of waves through multiple media. For the PLTW POE course, tension and compression testing of a variety of rock samples will be incorporated into materials properties and testing units. Also, a project will give a group of seniors in the PLTW Engineering Design and Development course at this certified NAF Academy of Engineering the

  15. Modeling soil organic carbon stock after 10 years of cover crops in Mediterranean vineyards: improving ANN prediction by digital terrain analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lo Papa, Giuseppe; Novara, Agata; Santoro, Antonino; Gristina, Luciano

    2014-05-01

    Estimate changes in soil organic carbon (SOC) stock after Agro Environment Measures adoption are strategically for national and regional scale. Uncertainty in estimates also represents a very important parameter in terms of evaluation of the exact costs and agro environment payments to farmers. In this study we modeled the variation of SOC stock after 10-year cover crop adoption in a vine growing area of South-Eastern Sicily. A paired-site approach was chosen to study the difference in SOC stocks. A total 100 paired sites (i.e. two adjacent plots) were chosen and three soil samples (Ap soil horizons, circa 0-30 cm depth) were collected in each plot to obtain a mean value of organic carbon concentration for each plot. The variation of soil organic carbon (SOCv) for each plot was calculated by differences between concentrations of the plot subjected to cover crops (SOC10) and the relative plot subjected to traditional agronomic practices (SOC0). The feasibility of using artificial neural networks as a method to predict soil organic carbon stock variation and the contribution of digital terrain analysis to improve the prediction were tested. We randomly subdivided the experimental values of SOC-stock difference in 80 learning samples and 20 test samples for model validation. SOCv was strongly correlated to the SOC0 concentration. Model validation using only SOCv as unique covariate showed a training and test perfection of 0.724 and 0.871 respectively. We hypothesized that terrain-driven hydrological flow patterns, mass-movement and local micro-climatic factors could be responsible processes contributing for SOC redistributions, thus affecting soil carbon stock in time. Terrain attributes were derived by digital terrain analysis from the 10 m DEM of the study area. A total of 37 terrain attributes were calculated and submitted to statistical feature selection. The Chi-square ranking indicated only 4 significant covariates among the terrain attributes (slope height

  16. Model Novaes for analysis of the productivity and efficiency of logistics operators in Brazil: a study of its applicability for the years 2005 and 2006

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emanuel Rodrigues Junqueira

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available The study presents a proposal to upgrade the production function to evaluate the productivity and efficiency of Brazilians logistics operators, which was developed by Novaes in his study in 2000. The goal was identify if and how the variables used continued to explain the behavior of productivity of these companies. To achieve that goal, tests were performed with data of years for 2005 and 2006, provided by the Revista Tecnologística, and used the same statistical techniques developed in the previous study, the multiple regression. The previous study intended to help the competitive advantage of logistics operators attentive to the problem, through the methodology of analysis of competitors and to customers of this service along the supply chain management, interested in identifying companies with greater efficiency. The results indicate that the model developed by Novaes is not valid for the current reality of these companies. Key-words: productivity function; logistic operators; analysis of competitors and suppliers.

  17. Mathematical learning instruction and teacher motivation factors affecting science technology engineering and math (STEM) major choices in 4-year colleges and universities: Multilevel structural equation modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Ahlam

    2011-12-01

    Using the Educational Longitudinal Study of 2002/06, this study examined the effects of the selected mathematical learning and teacher motivation factors on graduates' science, technology, engineering, and math (STEM) related major choices in 4-year colleges and universities, as mediated by math performance and math self-efficacy. Using multilevel structural equation modeling, I analyzed: (1) the association between mathematical learning instruction factors (i.e., computer, individual, and lecture-based learning activities in mathematics) and students' STEM major choices in 4-year colleges and universities as mediated by math performance and math self-efficacy and (2) the association between school factor, teacher motivation and students' STEM major choices in 4-year colleges and universities via mediators of math performance and math self-efficacy. The results revealed that among the selected learning experience factors, computer-based learning activities in math classrooms yielded the most positive effects on math self-efficacy, which significantly predicted the increase in the proportion of students' STEM major choice as mediated by math self-efficacy. Further, when controlling for base-year math Item Response Theory (IRT) scores, a positive relationship between individual-based learning activities in math classrooms and the first follow-up math IRT scores emerged, which related to the high proportion of students' STEM major choices. The results also indicated that individual and lecture-based learning activities in math yielded positive effects on math self-efficacy, which related to STEM major choice. Concerning between-school levels, teacher motivation yielded positive effects on the first follow up math IRT score, when controlling for base year IRT score. The results from this study inform educators, parents, and policy makers on how mathematics instruction can improve student math performance and encourage more students to prepare for STEM careers. Students

  18. Three year stability of Five-Factor Model personality traits in relation to changes in symptom levels in patients with schizophrenia or related disorders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyette, Lindy-Lou; Nederlof, Jan; Meijer, Carin; de Boer, Froukje; de Haan, Lieuwe

    2015-09-30

    Five-Factor Model (FFM) personality traits are related to a wide range of clinical outcome in patients with psychotic disorders. However, it is not sufficiently clear whether psychotic illness, particularly fluctuation in negative symptoms and psychotic relapse, affects personality. The current study examined the 3-year temporal stability of FFM traits in 91 patients with non-affective psychotic disorders with a maximum duration of illness of 10 years and 32 control subjects without a (family member with) a diagnosis of psychotic illness. In patients, change in negative symptoms predicted changes in Neuroticism and (inversely) in Extraversion and Openness. However, when correcting for depressive symptoms, negative symptoms no longer predicted change in any FFM trait. Clinical characteristics, such as psychotic relapse, were also not found to be related to change in FFM traits. Patients showed a slight increase in Conscientiousness levels, the other FFM traits showed mean-level stability. Rank-order stability of the FFM traits was moderate to strong, although weaker for Neuroticism in patients. Our findings indicate that psychotic symptoms exert limited effect on the stability of FFM traits in patients with psychotic disorders. Consistent with general population findings, one should guard against state-trait confusion between Neuroticism/Extraversion and depression. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Two-year impact of the Spanish smoking law on exposure to secondhand smoke: evidence of the failure of the 'Spanish model'.

    Science.gov (United States)

    López, Maria J; Nebot, Manel; Schiaffino, Anna; Pérez-Ríos, Mónica; Fu, Marcela; Ariza, Carles; Muñoz, Gloria; Fernández, Esteve

    2012-07-01

    Studies evaluating the long-term impact of smoking laws on secondhand smoke (SHS) exposure using airborne markers are scarce. This study aimed to assess the long-term impact of the Spanish smoking law on SHS levels, using a specific and objective marker. Follow-up study, measuring vapour-phase nicotine levels before the implementation of the law and 6, 12 and 24 months after the initial assessment. A total of 443 samples were taken at baseline in eight different regions in offices in the public administration, private sector, universities and hospitality venues. Two years after the law was implemented, the nicotine concentration decreased by a minimum of 60% in public administration, university and private sector offices, as well as in venues where smoking was totally banned. However, nicotine levels significantly increased by 40% in hospitality venues allowing smoking. No significant differences were found in hospitality venues with areas for smokers and non-smokers or in pubs and discotheques. Two years after the smoking law came into force, levels of SHS exposure in the workplace were significantly lower than before the law was implemented. Importantly, however, SHS levels were even higher than before the law was implemented in venues still allowing smoking. The data obtained in this study clearly show that the 'Spanish model' is not protecting the health of hospitality workers and that a complete ban is required. Furthermore, this study highlights the importance of long-term monitoring of compliance with smoking laws over time.

  20. Pre-entry Characteristics, Perceived Social Support, Adjustment and Academic Achievement in First-Year Spanish University Students: A Path Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodríguez, María Soledad; Tinajero, Carolina; Páramo, María Fernanda

    2017-11-17

    Transition to university is a multifactorial process to which scarce consideration has been given in Spain, despite this being one of the countries with the highest rates of academic failure and attrition within the European Union. The present study proposes an empirical model for predicting Spanish students' academic achievement at university by considering pre-entry characteristics, perceived social support and adaptation to university, in a sample of 300 traditional first-year university students. The findings of the path analysis showed that pre-university achievement and academic and personal-emotional adjustment were direct predictors of academic achievement. Furthermore, gender, parents' education and family support were indirect predictors of academic achievement, mediated by pre-university grades and adjustment to university. The current findings supporting evidence that academic achievement in first-year Spanish students is the cumulative effect of pre-entry characteristics and process variables, key factors that should be taken into account in designing intervention strategies involving families and that establish stronger links between research findings and university policies.

  1. The cost-effectiveness of hospital-based telephone coaching for people with type 2 diabetes: a 10 year modelling analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varney, J E; Liew, D; Weiland, T J; Inder, W J; Jelinek, G A

    2016-09-27

    Type 2 diabetes (T2DM) is a burdensome condition for individuals to live with and an increasingly costly condition for health services to treat. Cost-effective treatment strategies are required to delay the onset and slow the progression of diabetes related complications. The Diabetes Telephone Coaching Study (DTCS) demonstrated that telephone coaching is an intervention that may improve the risk factor status and diabetes management practices of people with T2DM. Measuring the cost effectiveness of this intervention is important to inform funding decisions that may facilitate the translation of this research into clinical practice. The purpose of this study is to assess the cost-effectiveness of telephone coaching, compared to usual diabetes care, in participants with poorly controlled T2DM. A cost utility analysis was undertaken using the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) Outcomes Model to extrapolate outcomes collected at 6 months in the DTCS over a 10 year time horizon. The intervention's impact on life expectancy, quality-adjusted life expectancy (QALE) and costs was estimated. Costs were reported from a health system perspective. A 5 % discount rate was applied to all future costs and effects. One-way sensitivity analyses were conducted to reflect uncertainty surrounding key input parameters. The intervention dominated the control condition in the base-case analysis, contributing to cost savings of $3327 per participant, along with non-significant improvements in QALE (0.2 QALE) and life expectancy (0.3 years). The cost of delivering the telephone coaching intervention continuously, for 10 years, was fully recovered through cost savings and a trend towards net health benefits. Findings of cost savings and net health benefits are rare and should prove attractive to decision makers who will determine whether this intervention is implemented into clinical practice. ACTRN12609000075280.

  2. Growth and Mortality Outcomes for Different Antiretroviral Therapy Initiation Criteria in Children Ages 1-5 Years: A Causal Modeling Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schomaker, Michael; Davies, Mary-Ann; Malateste, Karen; Renner, Lorna; Sawry, Shobna; N'Gbeche, Sylvie; Technau, Karl-Günter; Eboua, François; Tanser, Frank; Sygnaté-Sy, Haby; Phiri, Sam; Amorissani-Folquet, Madeleine; Cox, Vivian; Koueta, Fla; Chimbete, Cleophas; Lawson-Evi, Annette; Giddy, Janet; Amani-Bosse, Clarisse; Wood, Robin; Egger, Matthias; Leroy, Valeriane

    2016-03-01

    There is limited evidence regarding the optimal timing of initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART) in children. We conducted a causal modeling analysis in children ages 1-5 years from the International Epidemiologic Databases to Evaluate AIDS West/Southern-Africa collaboration to determine growth and mortality differences related to different CD4-based treatment initiation criteria, age groups, and regions. ART-naïve children of ages 12-59 months at enrollment with at least one visit before ART initiation and one follow-up visit were included. We estimated 3-year growth and cumulative mortality from the start of follow-up for different CD4 criteria using g-computation. About one quarter of the 5,826 included children was from West Africa (24.6%).The median (first; third quartile) CD4% at the first visit was 16% (11%; 23%), the median weight-for-age z-scores and height-for-age z-scores were -1.5 (-2.7; -0.6) and -2.5 (-3.5; -1.5), respectively. Estimated cumulative mortality was higher overall, and growth was slower, when initiating ART at lower CD4 thresholds. After 3 years of follow-up, the estimated mortality difference between starting ART routinely irrespective of CD4 count and starting ART if either CD4 count <750 cells/mm³ or CD4% <25% was 0.2% (95% CI = -0.2%; 0.3%), and the difference in the mean height-for-age z-scores of those who survived was -0.02 (95% CI = -0.04; 0.01). Younger children ages 1-2 and children in West Africa had worse outcomes. Our results demonstrate that earlier treatment initiation yields overall better growth and mortality outcomes, although we could not show any differences in outcomes between immediate ART and delaying until CD4 count/% falls below 750/25%.

  3. Natural History of Dependency in the Elderly: A 24-Year Population-Based Study Using a Longitudinal Item Response Theory Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edjolo, Arlette; Proust-Lima, Cécile; Delva, Fleur; Dartigues, Jean-François; Pérès, Karine

    2016-02-15

    We aimed to describe the hierarchical structure of Instrumental Activities of Daily Living (IADL) and basic Activities of Daily Living (ADL) and trajectories of dependency before death in an elderly population using item response theory methodology. Data were obtained from a population-based French cohort study, the Personnes Agées QUID (PAQUID) Study, of persons aged ≥65 years at baseline in 1988 who were recruited from 75 randomly selected areas in Gironde and Dordogne. We evaluated IADL and ADL data collected at home every 2-3 years over a 24-year period (1988-2012) for 3,238 deceased participants (43.9% men). We used a longitudinal item response theory model to investigate the item sequence of 11 IADL and ADL combined into a single scale and functional trajectories adjusted for education, sex, and age at death. The findings confirmed the earliest losses in IADL (shopping, transporting, finances) at the partial limitation level, and then an overlapping of concomitant IADL and ADL, with bathing and dressing being the earliest ADL losses, and finally total losses for toileting, continence, eating, and transferring. Functional trajectories were sex-specific, with a benefit of high education that persisted until death in men but was only transient in women. An in-depth understanding of this sequence provides an early warning of functional decline for better adaptation of medical and social care in the elderly. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  4. The restoration of the endangered Sambucus palmensis after 30 years of conservation actions in the Garajonay National Park: genetic assessment and niche modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodríguez-Rodríguez, Priscila; Fernández de Castro, Alejandro G; Sosa, Pedro A

    2018-01-01

    The translocation of individuals or the reinforcement of populations are measures in the genetic rescue of endangered species. Although it can be controversial to decide which and how many individuals must be reintroduced, populations can benefit from reinforcements. Sambucus palmensis is a critically endangered endemic to the Canary Islands. During the past 30 years, the Garajonay National Park (La Gomera) has carried out an intensive program of translocations using cuttings, due to the low germination rates of seeds. To assess the effect of the restorations on the population genetics of S. palmensis in La Gomera, we collected 402 samples from all the restored sites and all known natural individuals, which were genotyped with seven microsatellite markers. In addition, we conducted a species distribution modeling approach to assess how restorations fit the ecological niche of the species. Results show that there is a high proportion of clone specimens due to the propagation method, and the natural clonal reproduction of the species. Nonetheless, the observed heterozygosity has increased with the restorations and there still are private alleles and unique genotypes in the natural populations that have not been considered in the restorations. The population of Liria constitutes a very important genetic reservoir for the species. To optimize future reintroductions, we have proposed a list of specimens that are suitable for the extraction of seeds or cuttings in a greenhouse, as well as new suitable areas obtained by the species distribution models.

  5. Concussion Characteristics in High School Football by Helmet Age/Recondition Status, Manufacturer, and Model: 2008-2009 Through 2012-2013 Academic Years in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collins, Christy L; McKenzie, Lara B; Ferketich, Amy K; Andridge, Rebecca; Xiang, Huiyun; Comstock, R Dawn

    2016-06-01

    Football helmets used by high school athletes in the United States should meet the National Operating Committee on Standards for Athletic Equipment performance standards. Despite differences in interior padding and exterior shells, all football helmets should provide comparable protection against concussions. Yet, debate continues on whether differences in the rates or severity of concussions exist based on helmet age/recondition status, manufacturer, or model. To investigate whether high school football concussion characteristics varied by helmet age/recondition status, manufacturer, and model. Descriptive epidemiological study. High school football concussion and helmet data were collected from academic years 2008-2009 through 2012-2013 as part of the National High School Sports-Related Injury Surveillance Study. The certified athletic trainers of participating schools submitted athlete-exposure (AE) and injury information weekly. Participating schools reported 2900 football concussions during 3,528,790 AEs for an overall rate of 8.2 concussions per 10,000 AEs. Concussion rates significantly increased from 2008-2009 through 2012-2013 overall (P = .006) as well as in competition (P = .027) and practice (P = .023). Characteristics of concussed football players (ie, mean number of symptoms, specific concussion symptoms, symptom resolution time, and time until return to play) were similar among players wearing new helmets when compared with reconditioned helmets. Fewer players wearing an old/not reconditioned helmet had concussion symptoms resolve within 1 day compared with players wearing a new helmet. Despite differences in the manufacturers and models of helmets worn by all high school football players compared with players who sustained a concussion, the mean number of concussion symptoms, specific concussion symptoms, symptom resolution time, and time until return to play were similar for concussions sustained by football players wearing the most common helmet

  6. Modeling the effects of tree species and incubation temperature on soil's extracellular enzyme activity in 78-year-old tree plantations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Xiaoqi; Wang, Shen S. J.; Chen, Chengrong

    2017-12-01

    Forest plantations have been widely used as an effective measure for increasing soil carbon (C), and nitrogen (N) stocks and soil enzyme activities play a key role in soil C and N losses during decomposition of soil organic matter. However, few studies have been carried out to elucidate the mechanisms behind the differences in soil C and N cycling by different tree species in response to climate warming. Here, we measured the responses of soil's extracellular enzyme activity (EEA) to a gradient of temperatures using incubation methods in 78-year-old forest plantations with different tree species. Based on a soil enzyme kinetics model, we established a new statistical model to investigate the effects of temperature and tree species on soil EEA. In addition, we established a tree species-enzyme-C/N model to investigate how temperature and tree species influence soil C/N contents over time without considering plant C inputs. These extracellular enzymes included C acquisition enzymes (β-glucosidase, BG), N acquisition enzymes (N-acetylglucosaminidase, NAG; leucine aminopeptidase, LAP) and phosphorus acquisition enzymes (acid phosphatases). The results showed that incubation temperature and tree species significantly influenced all soil EEA and Eucalyptus had 1.01-2.86 times higher soil EEA than coniferous tree species. Modeling showed that Eucalyptus had larger soil C losses but had 0.99-2.38 times longer soil C residence time than the coniferous tree species over time. The differences in the residual soil C and N contents between Eucalyptus and coniferous tree species, as well as between slash pine (Pinus elliottii Engelm. var. elliottii) and hoop pine (Araucaria cunninghamii Ait.), increase with time. On the other hand, the modeling results help explain why exotic slash pine can grow faster, as it has 1.22-1.38 times longer residual soil N residence time for LAP, which mediate soil N cycling in the long term, than native coniferous tree species like hoop pine and

  7. Modeling the effects of tree species and incubation temperature on soil's extracellular enzyme activity in 78-year-old tree plantations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    X. Zhou

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Forest plantations have been widely used as an effective measure for increasing soil carbon (C, and nitrogen (N stocks and soil enzyme activities play a key role in soil C and N losses during decomposition of soil organic matter. However, few studies have been carried out to elucidate the mechanisms behind the differences in soil C and N cycling by different tree species in response to climate warming. Here, we measured the responses of soil's extracellular enzyme activity (EEA to a gradient of temperatures using incubation methods in 78-year-old forest plantations with different tree species. Based on a soil enzyme kinetics model, we established a new statistical model to investigate the effects of temperature and tree species on soil EEA. In addition, we established a tree species–enzyme–C∕N model to investigate how temperature and tree species influence soil C∕N contents over time without considering plant C inputs. These extracellular enzymes included C acquisition enzymes (β-glucosidase, BG, N acquisition enzymes (N-acetylglucosaminidase, NAG; leucine aminopeptidase, LAP and phosphorus acquisition enzymes (acid phosphatases. The results showed that incubation temperature and tree species significantly influenced all soil EEA and Eucalyptus had 1.01–2.86 times higher soil EEA than coniferous tree species. Modeling showed that Eucalyptus had larger soil C losses but had 0.99–2.38 times longer soil C residence time than the coniferous tree species over time. The differences in the residual soil C and N contents between Eucalyptus and coniferous tree species, as well as between slash pine (Pinus elliottii Engelm. var. elliottii and hoop pine (Araucaria cunninghamii Ait., increase with time. On the other hand, the modeling results help explain why exotic slash pine can grow faster, as it has 1.22–1.38 times longer residual soil N residence time for LAP, which mediate soil N cycling in the long term, than native

  8. Eight new luminous z ≥ 6 quasars discovered via SED model fitting of VISTA, WISE and Dark Energy Survey Year 1 observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reed, S. L.; McMahon, R. G.; Martini, P.; Banerji, M.; Auger, M.; Hewett, P. C.; Koposov, S. E.; Gibbons, S. L. J.; Gonzalez-Solares, E.; Ostrovski, F.; Tie, S. S.; Abdalla, F. B.; Allam, S.; Benoit-Lévy, A.; Bertin, E.; Brooks, D.; Buckley-Geer, E.; Burke, D. L.; Carnero Rosell, A.; Carrasco Kind, M.; Carretero, J.; da Costa, L. N.; DePoy, D. L.; Desai, S.; Diehl, H. T.; Doel, P.; Evrard, A. E.; Finley, D. A.; Flaugher, B.; Fosalba, P.; Frieman, J.; García-Bellido, J.; Gaztanaga, E.; Goldstein, D. A.; Gruen, D.; Gruendl, R. A.; Gutierrez, G.; James, D. J.; Kuehn, K.; Kuropatkin, N.; Lahav, O.; Lima, M.; Maia, M. A. G.; Marshall, J. L.; Melchior, P.; Miller, C. J.; Miquel, R.; Nord, B.; Ogando, R.; Plazas, A. A.; Romer, A. K.; Sanchez, E.; Scarpine, V.; Schubnell, M.; Sevilla-Noarbe, I.; Smith, R. C.; Sobreira, F.; Suchyta, E.; Swanson, M. E. C.; Tarle, G.; Tucker, D. L.; Walker, A. R.; Wester, W.

    2017-07-01

    We present the discovery and spectroscopic confirmation with the European Southern Observatory New Technology Telescope (NTT) and Gemini South telescopes of eight new, and the rediscovery of two previously known, 6.0 VISTA Hemisphere Survey (J, H, K) and Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (W1, W2). The photometric data were fitted with a grid of quasar model SEDs with redshift-dependent Ly α forest absorption and a range of intrinsic reddening as well as a series of low-mass cool star models. Candidates were ranked using an SED-model-based χ2-statistic, which is extendable to other future imaging surveys (e.g. LSST and Euclid). Our spectral confirmation success rate is 100 per cent without the need for follow-up photometric observations as used in other studies of this type. Combined with automatic removal of the main types of non-astrophysical contaminants, the method allows large data sets to be processed without human intervention and without being overrun by spurious false candidates. We also present a robust parametric redshift estimator that gives comparable accuracy to Mg II and CO-based redshift estimators. We find two z ˜ 6.2 quasars with H II near zone sizes ≤3 proper Mpc that could indicate that these quasars may be young with ages ≲ 106-107 years or lie in over dense regions of the IGM. The z = 6.5 quasar VDES J0224-4711 has JAB = 19.75 and is the second most luminous quasar known with z ≥ 6.5.

  9. Teaching programming and modelling skills to first-year earth & environmental science undergraduates: outcomes and lessons learned from a pilot project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisher, J. A.; Brewer, C.; O'Brien, G.

    2017-12-01

    Computing and programming are rapidly becoming necessary skills for earth and environmental scientists. Scientists in both academia and industry must be able to manipulate increasingly large datasets, create plots and 3-D visualisations of observations, and interpret outputs from complex numerical models, among other tasks. However, these skills are rarely taught as a compulsory part of undergraduate earth science curricula. In 2016, the School of Earth & Environmental Sciences at the University of Wollongong began a pilot program to integrate introductory programming and modelling skills into the required first-year core curriculum for all undergraduates majoring in earth and environmental science fields. Using Python, a popular teaching language also widely used by professionals, a set of guided exercises were developed. These exercises use interactive Jupyter Notebooks to introduce students to programming fundamentals and simple modelling problems relevant to the earth system, such as carbon cycling and population growth. The exercises are paired with peer review activities to expose students to the multitude of "correct" ways to solve computing problems. In the last weeks of the semester, students work in groups to creatively adapt their new-found skills to selected problems in earth system science. In this presentation, I will report on outcomes from delivering the new curriculum to the first two cohorts of 120-150 students, including details of the implementation and the impacts on both student aptitude and attitudes towards computing. While the first cohort clearly developed competency, survey results suggested a drop in student confidence over the course of the semester. To address this confidence gap for the second cohort, the in-class activities are now being supplemented with low-stakes open-book review quizzes that provide further practice with no time pressure. Research into the effectiveness of these review quizzes is ongoing and preliminary findings

  10. Temporal trend of the snow-related variables in Sierra Nevada in the last years: An analysis combining Earth Observation and hydrological modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pérez-Luque, Antonio J.; Herrero, Javier; Bonet, Francisco J.; Pérez-Pérez, Ramón

    2016-04-01

    Climate change is causing declines in snow-cover extent and duration in European mountain ranges. This is especially important in Mediterranean mountain ranges where the observed trends towards precipitation and higher temperatures can provoke problems of water scarcity. In this work, we analyzed temporal trends (2000 to 2014) of snow-related variables obtained from satellite and modelling data in Sierra Nevada, a Mediterranean high-mountain range located in Southern Spain, at 37°N. Snow cover indicators (snow-cover duration, snow-cover onset dates and snow-cover melting dates) were obtained by processing images of MOD10A2 MODIS product using an automated workflow. Precipitation data were obtained using WiMMed, a complete and fully distributed hydrological model that is used to map the annual rainfall and snowfall with a resolution of 30x30 m over the whole study area. It uses expert algorithms to interpolate precipitation and temperature at an hourly scale, and simulates partition of precipitation into snowfall with several methods. For each snow-related indicator (snow-covers and snowfall), a trend analysis was applied at the MODIS pixel scale during the study period (2000-2014). We applied Mann-Kendall test and Theil-Sen slope estimation in each of the pixels comprising Sierra Nevada. The trend analysis assesses the intensity, magnitude and degree of statistical significance during the period analysed. The spatial pattern of these trends was explored according to elevation ranges. Finally, we explored the relationship between trends of snow-cover related indicators and precipitation trends. Our results show that snow-cover has undergone significant changes in the last 14 years. 80 % of the pixels covering Sierra Nevada showed a negative trend in the duration of snow-cover. We also observed a delay in the snow-cover onset date (68.03 % pixels showing a positive trend in the snow-cover onset date) and an advance in the melt date (80.72 % of pixels followed a

  11. Prevalence and Predictors of Pre-Diabetes and Diabetes among Adults 18 Years or Older in Florida: A Multinomial Logistic Modeling Approach.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ifechukwude Obiamaka Okwechime

    Full Text Available Individuals with pre-diabetes and diabetes have increased risks of developing macro-vascular complications including heart disease and stroke; which are the leading causes of death globally. The objective of this study was to estimate the prevalence of pre-diabetes and diabetes, and to investigate their predictors among adults ≥18 years in Florida.Data covering the time period January-December 2013, were obtained from Florida's Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS. Survey design of the study was declared using SVYSET statement of STATA 13.1. Descriptive analyses were performed to estimate the prevalence of pre-diabetes and diabetes. Predictors of pre-diabetes and diabetes were investigated using multinomial logistic regression model. Model goodness-of-fit was evaluated using both the multinomial goodness-of-fit test proposed by Fagerland, Hosmer, and Bofin, as well as, the Hosmer-Lemeshow's goodness of fit test.There were approximately 2,983 (7.3% and 5,189 (12.1% adults in Florida diagnosed with pre-diabetes and diabetes, respectively. Over half of the study respondents were white, married and over the age of 45 years while 36.4% reported being physically inactive, overweight (36.4% or obese (26.4%, hypertensive (34.6%, hypercholesteremic (40.3%, and 26% were arthritic. Based on the final multivariable multinomial model, only being overweight (Relative Risk Ratio [RRR] = 1.85, 95% Confidence Interval [95% CI] = 1.41, 2.42, obese (RRR = 3.41, 95% CI = 2.61, 4.45, hypertensive (RRR = 1.69, 95% CI = 1.33, 2.15, hypercholesterolemic (RRR = 1.94, 95% CI = 1.55, 2.43, and arthritic (RRR = 1.24, 95% CI = 1.00, 1.55 had significant associations with pre-diabetes. However, more predictors had significant associations with diabetes and the strengths of associations tended to be higher than for the association with pre-diabetes. For instance, the relative risk ratios for the association between diabetes and being overweight (RRR = 2.00, 95

  12. Income and health-related quality of life among prostate cancer patients over a one-year period after radical prostatectomy: a linear mixed model analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klein, Jens; Lüdecke, Daniel; Hofreuter-Gätgens, Kerstin; Fisch, Margit; Graefen, Markus; von dem Knesebeck, Olaf

    2017-09-01

    To examine income-related disparities in health-related quality of life (HRQOL) over a one-year period after surgery (radical prostatectomy) and its contributory factors in a longitudinal perspective. Evidence of associations between income and HRQOL among patients with prostate cancer (PCa) is sparse and their explanations still remain unclear. 246 males of two German hospitals filled out a questionnaire at the time of acute treatment, 6 and 12 months later. Age, partnership status, baseline disease and treatment factors, physical and psychological comorbidities, as well as treatment factors and adverse effects at follow-up were additionally included in the analyses to explain potential disparities. HRQOL was assessed with the EORTC (European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer) QLQ-C30 core questionnaire and the prostate-specific QLQ-PR25. A linear mixed model for repeated measures was calculated. The fixed effects showed highly significant income-related inequalities regarding the majority of HRQOL scales. Less affluent PCa patients reported lower HRQOL in terms of global quality of life, all functional scales and urinary symptoms. After introducing relevant covariates, some associations became insignificant (physical, cognitive and sexual function), while others only showed reduced estimates (global quality of life, urinary symptoms, role, emotional and social function). In particular, mental disorders/psychological comorbidity played a relevant role in the explanation of income-related disparities. One year after surgery, income-related disparities in various dimensions of HRQOL persist. With respect to economically disadvantaged PCa patients, the findings emphasize the importance of continuous psychosocial screening and tailored interventions, of patients' empowerment and improved access to supportive care.

  13. Spatio-Temporal Characteristics of Global Warming in the Tibetan Plateau during the Last 50 Years Based on a Generalised Temperature Zone - Elevation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Yanqiang; Fang, Yiping

    2013-01-01

    Temperature is one of the primary factors influencing the climate and ecosystem, and examining its change and fluctuation could elucidate the formation of novel climate patterns and trends. In this study, we constructed a generalised temperature zone elevation model (GTEM) to assess the trends of climate change and temporal-spatial differences in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) using the annual and monthly mean temperatures from 1961–2010 at 144 meteorological stations in and near the TP. The results showed the following: (1) The TP has undergone robust warming over the study period, and the warming rate was 0.318°C/decade. The warming has accelerated during recent decades, especially in the last 20 years, and the warming has been most significant in the winter months, followed by the spring, autumn and summer seasons. (2) Spatially, the zones that became significantly smaller were the temperature zones of −6°C and −4°C, and these have decreased 499.44 and 454.26 thousand sq km from 1961 to 2010 at average rates of 25.1% and 11.7%, respectively, over every 5-year interval. These quickly shrinking zones were located in the northwestern and central TP. (3) The elevation dependency of climate warming existed in the TP during 1961–2010, but this tendency has gradually been weakening due to more rapid warming at lower elevations than in the middle and upper elevations of the TP during 1991–2010. The higher regions and some low altitude valleys of the TP were the most significantly warming regions under the same categorizing criteria. Experimental evidence shows that the GTEM is an effective method to analyse climate changes in high altitude mountainous regions. PMID:23565182

  14. Minimally Manipulated Bone Marrow Concentrate Compared with Microfracture Treatment of Full-Thickness Chondral Defects: A One-Year Study in an Equine Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chu, Constance R; Fortier, Lisa A; Williams, Ashley; Payne, Karin A; McCarrel, Taralyn M; Bowers, Megan E; Jaramillo, Diego

    2018-01-17

    Microfracture is commonly performed for cartilage repair but usually results in fibrocartilage. Microfracture augmented by autologous bone marrow concentrate (BMC) was previously shown to yield structurally superior cartilage repairs in an equine model compared with microfracture alone. The current study was performed to test the hypothesis that autologous BMC without concomitant microfracture improves cartilage repair compared with microfracture alone. Autologous sternal bone marrow aspirate (BMA) was concentrated using a commercial system. Cells from BMC were evaluated for chondrogenic potential in vitro and in vivo. Bilateral full-thickness chondral defects (15-mm diameter) were created on the midlateral trochlear ridge in 8 horses. Paired defects were randomly assigned to treatment with BMC without concomitant microfracture, or to microfracture alone. The repairs were evaluated at 1 year by in vitro assessment, arthroscopy, morphological magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), quantitative T2-weighted and ultrashort echo time enhanced T2* (UTE-T2*) MRI mapping, and histological assessment. Culture-expanded but not freshly isolated cells from BMA and BMC underwent cartilage differentiation in vitro. In vivo, cartilage repairs in both groups were fibrous to fibrocartilaginous at 1 year of follow-up, with no differences observed between BMC and microfracture by arthroscopy, T2 and UTE-T2* MRI values, and histological assessment (p > 0.05). Morphological MRI showed subchondral bone changes not observed by arthroscopy and improved overall outcomes for the BMC repairs (p = 0.03). Differences in repair tissue UTE-T2* texture features were observed between the treatment groups (p BMC was applied directly to critical-sized, full-thickness chondral defects in an equine model, the cartilage repair results were similar to those of microfracture. Our data suggest that, given the few mesenchymal stem cells in minimally manipulated BMC, other mechanisms such as paracrine, anti

  15. Hydrological performance of extensive green roofs in New York City: observations and multi-year modeling of three full-scale systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carson, T B; Marasco, D E; Culligan, P J; McGillis, W R

    2013-01-01

    green roof. When applied to Central Park, NYC precipitation records from 1971 to 2010, the CRE models estimated total rainfall retention over the 40 year period to be 45%, 53%, and 58% for the W118, USPS, and ConEd green roofs respectively. Differences between the observed and modeled rainfall retention for W118 and USPS were primarily due to an abnormally high frequency of large events, 50 mm of rainfall or more, during the monitoring period compared to historic precipitation patterns. The multi-year retention rates are a more reliable estimate of annual rainfall capture and highlight the importance of long-term evaluations when reporting green roof performance. (letter)

  16. Hydrological performance of extensive green roofs in New York City: observations and multi-year modeling of three full-scale systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carson, T. B.; Marasco, D. E.; Culligan, P. J.; McGillis, W. R.

    2013-06-01

    green roof. When applied to Central Park, NYC precipitation records from 1971 to 2010, the CRE models estimated total rainfall retention over the 40 year period to be 45%, 53%, and 58% for the W118, USPS, and ConEd green roofs respectively. Differences between the observed and modeled rainfall retention for W118 and USPS were primarily due to an abnormally high frequency of large events, 50 mm of rainfall or more, during the monitoring period compared to historic precipitation patterns. The multi-year retention rates are a more reliable estimate of annual rainfall capture and highlight the importance of long-term evaluations when reporting green roof performance.

  17. Releasing the digital elevation model for the whole Italian territory: a case study reporting two years of core-data dissemination for Earth Sciences communities and other stakeholders

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tarquini, Simone; Nannipieri, Luca

    2014-05-01

    EPOS (European Plate Observing System) is the European initiative for the implementation and integration of European Research Infrastructures in the field of Solid Earth Sciences. In particular, EPOS is aimed at creating a common environment for data exchange for both the scientific community and relevant stakeholders interested in Earth Sciences. In such a context, a service providing access to the complete topography of one of the countries participating in EPOS represents a step forward towards the realization of the EPOS mission. Here we report about two years of activity of a data dissemination service which released (for free) a digital elevation model (DEM) of the whole Italian territory at 10 m-resolution named TINTALY/01. The new TINITALY/01 DEM for the whole Italian territory was completed and presented by INGV in 2007. This DEM was the final result of a project funded by the Italian Ministry of the Environment. TINITALY/01 was completed in two phases: in a first phase, independent elevation models for single regions were derived, and in a second phase, all the regional models were merged into a single, seamless model covering the whole territory of Italy. In early 2012, a web portal was published (http://tinitaly.pi.ingv.it/) through which the above DEM is open for a full web-GIS navigation (3-D navigation in anaglyph mode or standard 2-D hillshade), and where internet navigators can ask for the download of the DEM dataset (in grid format, 10 m-resolution) through the compilation of an online form (http://tinitaly.pi.ingv.it/account_request_form.html). Submission of the form implies stating the destination of use for the data, and acceptance of the policy of use (i.e. no-profit use). After nearly two years from the opening of the portal, the DEM is still browsed by up to 10-20 users per day (about 3000 visits throughout 2013). As of 31 December 2013, about 220 users affiliated to nearly 150 different institutions or associations (i.e. universities

  18. Final Rule for Control of Air Pollution From New Motor Vehicles and New Motor Vehicle Engines; Non-Conformance Penalties for 2004 and later Model Year Emission Standards for Heavy-Duty Diesel Engines and Heavy-Duty Diesel Vehicles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Final Rule for Control of Air Pollution From New Motor Vehicles and New Motor Vehicle Engines; Non-Conformance Penalties for 2004 and later Model Year Emission Standards for Heavy-Duty Diesel Engines and Heavy-Duty Diesel Vehicles

  19. Growth and Mortality Outcomes for Different Antiretroviral Therapy Initiation Criteria in Children aged 1–5 Years: A Causal Modelling Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schomaker, Michael; Davies, Mary-Ann; Malateste, Karen; Renner, Lorna; Sawry, Shobna; N’Gbeche, Sylvie; Technau, Karl-Günter; Eboua, François; Tanser, Frank; Sygnaté-Sy, Haby; Phiri, Sam; Amorissani-Folquet, Madeleine; Cox, Vivian; Koueta, Fla; Chimbete, Cleophas; Lawson-Evi, Annette; Giddy, Janet; Amani-Bosse, Clarisse; Wood, Robin; Egger, Matthias; Leroy, Valeriane

    2017-01-01

    Background There is limited evidence regarding the optimal timing of initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART) in children. We conducted a causal modelling analysis in children aged 1–5 years from the International Epidemiologic Databases to Evaluate AIDS West/Southern-Africa collaboration to determine growth and mortality differences related to different CD4-based treatment initiation criteria, age groups and regions. Methods ART-naïve children of age 12–59 months at enrollment with at least one visit before ART initiation and one follow-up visit were included. We estimated 3-year growth and cumulative mortality from the start of follow-up for different CD4 criteria using g-computation. Results About one quarter of the 5826 included children was from West Africa (24.6%). The median (first; third quartile) CD4% at the first visit was 16% (11%;23%), the median weight-for-age z-scores and height-for-age z-scores were −1.5 (−2.7; −0.6) and −2.5 (−3.5; −1.5), respectively. Estimated cumulative mortality was higher overall, and growth was slower, when initiating ART at lower CD4 thresholds. After 3 years of follow-up, the estimated mortality difference between starting ART routinely irrespective of CD4 count and starting ART if either CD4 count<750 cells/mm3 or CD4%<25% was 0.2% (95%CI: −0.2%;0.3%), and the difference in the mean height-for-age z-scores of those who survived was −0.02 (95%CI: −0.04;0.01). Younger children aged 1–2 and children in West Africa had worse outcomes. Conclusions Our results demonstrate that earlier treatment initiation yields overall better growth and mortality outcomes, though we could not show any differences in outcomes between immediate ART and delaying until CD4 count/% falls below750/25%. PMID:26479876

  20. Family time, parental behaviour model and the initiation of smoking and alcohol use by ten-year-old children: an epidemiological study in Kaunas, Lithuania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zaborskis Apolinaras

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Family is considered to be the first and the most important child development and socialization bond. Nevertheless, parental behaviour model importance for the children, as well as family time for shared activity amount influence upon the child's health-related behaviour habit development has not been yet thoroughly examined. The aim of this paper is to indicate the advanced health-hazardous behaviour modelling possibilities in the families, as well as time spent for joint family activities, and to examine the importance of time spent for joint family activities for the smoking and alcohol use habit initiation among children. Methods This research was carried out in Kaunas, Lithuania, during the school year 2004–2005. The research population consisted of 369 fifth-grade schoolchildren (211 (57.2% boys and 158 (42.8% girls and 565 parents: 323 (57.2% mothers and 242 (48.2% fathers. The response rate was 80.7% for children; 96.1% and 90.6% for mothers and fathers correspondingly. Results Eating a meal together was the most frequent joint family activity, whereas visiting friends or relatives together, going for a walk, or playing sports were the most infrequent joint family activities. More than two thirds (81.5% of parents (248 (77.0% mothers and 207 (85.9% fathers (p Conclusion Joint family activity time deficit together with frequent parental examples of smoking and alcohol use underlie the development of alcohol and smoking addictions in children to some extent. The above-mentioned issues are suggested to be widely addressed in the comprehensive family health education programs.

  1. Modelling the relationship between zooplankton biomass and environmental variations in the distribution of 210Po during a one year cycle in northwestern Mediterranean coastal waters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Färber Lorda, Jaime; Tateda, Yutaka; Fowler, Scott W

    2017-08-01

    To clarify the relationship between zooplankton biomass and the environmental kinetics of the natural radionuclide 210 Po during a one-year period (October 1995 to November 1996) in northwestern Mediterranean coastal waters, a modelling analysis was applied. Using 210 Po concentrations in seawater and zooplankton, the 210 Po uptake rate constant from food for zooplankton was evaluated using a biokinetics calculation involving the uptake and the excretion rate constants between seawater and zooplankton. Using the transfer constants obtained, the 210 Po concentrations in zooplankton were reconstructed and validated by observed concentrations. The simulation results were in good agreement with the measured 210 Po concentrations in zooplankton. Assuming that 210 Po fecal excretion represents the majority of the excretion of 210 Po from zooplankton, the fecal matter associated 210 Po vertical flux was calculated, and compared with the observed vertical fluxes of 210 Po measured in sediment traps. The modelling evaluation showed that fecal pellet vertical transport could not fully explain the observed sinking fluxes of particulate organic matter at 150 m depth, suggesting that other sinking biodetrital aggregates are also important components of the plankton-derived vertical flux of 210 Po. The relationship between 210 Po concentration in seawater and that in rain and dry fallout and their potential effect on 210 Po concentrations in zooplankton at this location were also examined. A similar, but diphased trend between 210 Po in zooplankton and 210 Po in rain and dry fallout deposition rate was demonstrated. 210 Po concentrations in the dissolved phase of seawater tended to diminish as mean daily rainfall increased suggesting that rain inputs serve as a 210 Po dilution mechanism in seawater at this location. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. European gas markets and Russian LNG. Prospects for the development of European gas markets and model simulations of possible new LNG supplies from year 2000

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eldegard, Tom [Foundation for Research in Economics and Business Administration, Bergen (Norway)

    1996-07-01

    The study aims at clarifying the framework for possible LNG exports from Northern Russia and focuses on the European natural gas markets. The first stage provides general background information on the market structure and related topics. In the second stage this information is used to develop a formal market model and subject it to simulations with various assumptions of the future gas supply. The model is described and results from simulations are given. In the first stage facts from the history of the European natural gas market are outlined. Underlying conditions for the development of natural gas markets in Europe are addressed. The EU has been promoting trade liberalisation in the energy sector but most counties resist freer gas trade across the boarders. New infrastructure development for natural gas are either underway or planned. Some important projects are mentioned. Gas in a global perspective is discussed. The cost structure of the LNG chain is mentioned and an overview of existing LNG export capacities world-wide and major reception terminals in Europe and the USA is given. The second stage employs a scenario analysis to evaluate the economic effects of hypothetical LNG deliveries from Northern Russia. The model is developed for the analysis of West European natural gas markets and designed to allow users to create a structural system of interconnected producers and market regions. Basic assumptions for the evolution of natural gas markets till 2005 is developed and base case scenarios calculated for the years 2000 and 2005 and used as a point of reference for the alternative scenarios considered. According to the analysis the introduction of a new LNG supplier in the European gas market will inflict a substantial loss upon all the existing producers. The primary keys to this result are the assumptions made for gas demand and supply capacity. The LNG alternative will hardly be approved for purely economic reasons as long as the Russians maintain

  3. European gas markets and Russian LNG. Prospects for the development of European gas markets and model simulations of possible new LNG supplies from year 2000

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eldegard, Tom

    1996-01-01

    The study aims at clarifying the framework for possible LNG exports from Northern Russia and focuses on the European natural gas markets. The first stage provides general background information on the market structure and related topics. In the second stage this information is used to develop a formal market model and subject it to simulations with various assumptions of the future gas supply. The model is described and results from simulations are given. In the first stage facts from the history of the European natural gas market are outlined. Underlying conditions for the development of natural gas markets in Europe are addressed. The EU has been promoting trade liberalisation in the energy sector but most counties resist freer gas trade across the boarders. New infrastructure development for natural gas are either underway or planned. Some important projects are mentioned. Gas in a global perspective is discussed. The cost structure of the LNG chain is mentioned and an overview of existing LNG export capacities world-wide and major reception terminals in Europe and the USA is given. The second stage employs a scenario analysis to evaluate the economic effects of hypothetical LNG deliveries from Northern Russia. The model is developed for the analysis of West European natural gas markets and designed to allow users to create a structural system of interconnected producers and market regions. Basic assumptions for the evolution of natural gas markets till 2005 is developed and base case scenarios calculated for the years 2000 and 2005 and used as a point of reference for the alternative scenarios considered. According to the analysis the introduction of a new LNG supplier in the European gas market will inflict a substantial loss upon all the existing producers. The primary keys to this result are the assumptions made for gas demand and supply capacity. The LNG alternative will hardly be approved for purely economic reasons as long as the Russians maintain

  4. Longitudinal Relationship between Self-efficacy and Posttraumatic Stress Symptoms 8 Years after a Violent Assault: An Autoregressive Cross-Lagged Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Egil Nygaard

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Self-efficacy is assumed to promote posttraumatic adaption, and several cross-sectional studies support this notion. However, there is a lack of prospective longitudinal studies to further illuminate the temporal relationship between self-efficacy and posttraumatic stress symptoms. Thus, an important unresolved research question is whether posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD symptoms affect the level of self-efficacy or vice versa or whether they mutually influence each other. The present prospective longitudinal study investigated the reciprocal relationship between general self-efficacy (GSE and posttraumatic stress symptoms in 143 physical assault victims. We used an autoregressive cross-lagged model across four assessment waves: within 4 months after the assault (T1 and then 3 months (T2, 12 months (T3 and 8 years (T4 after the first assessment. Stress symptoms at T1 and T2 predicted subsequent self-efficacy, while self-efficacy at T1 and T2 was not related to subsequent stress symptoms. These relationships were reversed after T3; higher levels of self-efficacy at T3 predicted lower levels of posttraumatic stress symptoms at T4, while posttraumatic tress symptoms at T3 did not predict self-efficacy at T4. In conclusion, posttraumatic stress symptoms may have a deteriorating effect on self-efficacy in the early phase after physical assault, whereas self-efficacy may promote recovery from posttraumatic stress symptoms over the long term.

  5. Longitudinal Relationship between Self-efficacy and Posttraumatic Stress Symptoms 8 Years after a Violent Assault: An Autoregressive Cross-Lagged Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nygaard, Egil; Johansen, Venke A; Siqveland, Johan; Hussain, Ajmal; Heir, Trond

    2017-01-01

    Self-efficacy is assumed to promote posttraumatic adaption, and several cross-sectional studies support this notion. However, there is a lack of prospective longitudinal studies to further illuminate the temporal relationship between self-efficacy and posttraumatic stress symptoms. Thus, an important unresolved research question is whether posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms affect the level of self-efficacy or vice versa or whether they mutually influence each other. The present prospective longitudinal study investigated the reciprocal relationship between general self-efficacy (GSE) and posttraumatic stress symptoms in 143 physical assault victims. We used an autoregressive cross-lagged model across four assessment waves: within 4 months after the assault (T1) and then 3 months (T2), 12 months (T3) and 8 years (T4) after the first assessment. Stress symptoms at T1 and T2 predicted subsequent self-efficacy, while self-efficacy at T1 and T2 was not related to subsequent stress symptoms. These relationships were reversed after T3; higher levels of self-efficacy at T3 predicted lower levels of posttraumatic stress symptoms at T4, while posttraumatic tress symptoms at T3 did not predict self-efficacy at T4. In conclusion, posttraumatic stress symptoms may have a deteriorating effect on self-efficacy in the early phase after physical assault, whereas self-efficacy may promote recovery from posttraumatic stress symptoms over the long term.

  6. 50 years of Galtung and Ruge: Reflections on their model of news values and its relevance for the study of journalism and communication today

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joye Stijn

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In 1965, Galtung and Ruge initiated a rich strand of academic research on the notion of news values and the practice of gatekeeping in a context of international news reporting. Since its publication, many scholars have criticized, revisited, and put their findings to the test, often leading to somehow conflicting conclusions. In general, some studies tend to confirm their findings while others have uttered methodological concerns or came up with new or additional sets of news factors, hence arguing for a further specification of the model. In recent years, scholars also pointed towards the increasing impact of digital media on journalistic practices of news selection. Likewise, new perspectives on global journalism were introduced into the debate. In this article, we bring together these different perspectives in order to inform a broad discussion on Galtung and Ruge's legacy for the field of communication sciences in general and studies on journalism and international news selection in particular. We first assess how Galtung and Ruge's hypotheses hold up in an era of unlimited data. Second, we reflect on the need to integrate changing societal and cultural contexts of news selection, production and reception to understand news values today. Third, with contemporary journalistic practices and research in mind, we suggest an agenda for the study of news values in an era of global journalism.

  7. Performance Analysis of Hospitals Affiliated to Mashhad University of Medical Sciences Using the Pabon Lasso Model: A Six-Year-Trend Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kalhor

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Background Nowadays, productivity and efficiency are considered a culture and a perspective in both life and work environments. This is the starting point of human development. Objectives The aim of the present study was to investigate the performance of hospitals affiliated to Mashhad University of Medical Sciences using the Pabon Lasso Model. Methods The present study was a descriptive-analytic research, with a cross-sectional design, conducted during six years (2009 - 2014, at selected hospitals. The studied hospitals of this study were 21 public hospitals affiliated to Mashhad University of Medical Sciences. The data was obtained from the treatment Deputy of Khorasan Razavi province. Results Results from the present study showed that only 19% of the studied hospitals were located in zone 3 of the diagram, indicating a perfect performance. Twenty-eight percent were in zone 1, 19% in zone 2, and 28% in zone 4. Conclusions According to the findings, only a few hospitals are at the desirable zone (zone 3; the rest of the hospitals fell in other zones, which could be a result of poor performance and poor management of hospital resources. Most of the hospitals were in zones 1 and 4, whose characteristics are low bed turnover and longer stay, indicating higher bed supply than demand for healthcare services or longer hospitalization, less outpatient equipment use, and higher costs.

  8. The effect of the PROSPER partnership model on cultivating local stakeholder knowledge of evidence-based programs: a five-year longitudinal study of 28 communities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crowley, D Max; Greenberg, Mark T; Feinberg, Mark E; Spoth, Richard L; Redmond, Cleve R

    2012-02-01

    A substantial challenge in improving public health is how to facilitate the local adoption of evidence-based interventions (EBIs). To do so, an important step is to build local stakeholders' knowledge and decision-making skills regarding the adoption and implementation of EBIs. One EBI delivery system, called PROSPER (PROmoting School-community-university Partnerships to Enhance Resilience), has effectively mobilized community prevention efforts, implemented prevention programming with quality, and consequently decreased youth substance abuse. While these results are encouraging, another objective is to increase local stakeholder knowledge of best practices for adoption, implementation and evaluation of EBIs. Using a mixed methods approach, we assessed local stakeholder knowledge of these best practices over 5 years, in 28 intervention and control communities. Results indicated that the PROSPER partnership model led to significant increases in expert knowledge regarding the selection, implementation, and evaluation of evidence-based interventions. Findings illustrate the limited programming knowledge possessed by members of local prevention efforts, the difficulty of complete knowledge transfer, and highlight one method for cultivating that knowledge.

  9. From primary care to public health: using Problem-based Learning and the ecological model to teach public health to first year medical students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoover, Cora R; Wong, Candice C; Azzam, Amin

    2012-06-01

    We investigated whether a public health-oriented Problem-Based Learning case presented to first-year medical students conveyed 12 "Population Health Competencies for Medical Students," as recommended by the Association of American Medical Colleges and the Regional Medicine-Public Health Education Centers. A public health-oriented Problem-Based Learning case guided by the ecological model paradigm was developed and implemented among two groups of 8 students at the University of California, Berkeley-UCSF Joint Medical Program, in the Fall of 2010. Using directed content analysis, student-generated written reports were coded for the presence of the 12 population health content areas. Students generated a total of 29 reports, of which 20 (69%) contained information relevant to at least one of the 12 population health competencies. Each of the 12 content areas was addressed by at least one report. As physicians-in-training prepare to confront the challenges of integrating prevention and population health with clinical practice, Problem-Based Learning is a promising tool to enhance medical students' engagement with public health.

  10. Evaluation of a seven-year air quality simulation using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)/Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) models in the eastern United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Hongliang; Chen, Gang; Hu, Jianlin; Chen, Shu-Hua; Wiedinmyer, Christine; Kleeman, Michael; Ying, Qi

    2014-03-01

    The performance of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)/Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) system in the eastern United States is analyzed based on results from a seven-year modeling study with a 4-km spatial resolution. For 2-m temperature, the monthly averaged mean bias (MB) and gross error (GE) values are generally within the recommended performance criteria, although temperature is over-predicted with MB values up to 2K. Water vapor at 2-m is well-predicted but significant biases (>2 g kg(-1)) were observed in wintertime. Predictions for wind speed are satisfactory but biased towards over-prediction with 0nitrate and sulfate concentrations are also well reproduced. The other unresolved PM2.5 components (OTHER) are significantly overestimated by more than a factor of two. No conclusive explanations can be made regarding the possible cause of this universal overestimation, which warrants a follow-up study to better understand this problem. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. Burden of Six Healthcare-Associated Infections on European Population Health: Estimating Incidence-Based Disability-Adjusted Life Years through a Population Prevalence-Based Modelling Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alessandro Cassini

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Estimating the burden of healthcare-associated infections (HAIs compared to other communicable diseases is an ongoing challenge given the need for good quality data on the incidence of these infections and the involved comorbidities. Based on the methodology of the Burden of Communicable Diseases in Europe (BCoDE project and 2011-2012 data from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC point prevalence survey (PPS of HAIs and antimicrobial use in European acute care hospitals, we estimated the burden of six common HAIs.The included HAIs were healthcare-associated pneumonia (HAP, healthcare-associated urinary tract infection (HA UTI, surgical site infection (SSI, healthcare-associated Clostridium difficile infection (HA CDI, healthcare-associated neonatal sepsis, and healthcare-associated primary bloodstream infection (HA primary BSI. The burden of these HAIs was measured in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs. Evidence relating to the disease progression pathway of each type of HAI was collected through systematic literature reviews, in order to estimate the risks attributable to HAIs. For each of the six HAIs, gender and age group prevalence from the ECDC PPS was converted into incidence rates by applying the Rhame and Sudderth formula. We adjusted for reduced life expectancy within the hospital population using three severity groups based on McCabe score data from the ECDC PPS. We estimated that 2,609,911 new cases of HAI occur every year in the European Union and European Economic Area (EU/EEA. The cumulative burden of the six HAIs was estimated at 501 DALYs per 100,000 general population each year in EU/EEA. HAP and HA primary BSI were associated with the highest burden and represented more than 60% of the total burden, with 169 and 145 DALYs per 100,000 total population, respectively. HA UTI, SSI, HA CDI, and HA primary BSI ranked as the third to sixth syndromes in terms of burden of disease. HAP and HA primary BSI were

  12. Assessment of NHTSA’s Report “Relationships Between Fatality Risk, Mass, and Footprint in Model Year 2003-2010 Passenger Cars and LTVs”

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wenzel, Tom [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2016-06-01

    NHTSA recently completed a logistic regression analysis updating its 2003, 2010, and 2012 studies of the relationship between vehicle mass and US fatality risk per vehicle mile traveled (VMT; Kahane 2010, Kahane 2012, Puckett 2016). The new study updates the 2012 analysis using FARS data from 2005 to 2011 for model year 2003 to 2010. Using the updated databases, NHTSA estimates that reducing vehicle mass by 100 pounds while holding footprint fixed would increase fatality risk per VMT by 1.49% for lighter-than-average cars and by 0.50% for heavierthan- average cars, but reduce risk by 0.10% for lighter-than-average light-duty trucks, by 0.71% for heavier-than-average light-duty trucks, and by 0.99% for CUVs/minivans. Using a jack knife method to estimate the statistical uncertainty of these point estimates, NHTSA finds that none of these estimates are statistically significant at the 95% confidence level; however, the 1.49% increase in risk associated with mass reduction in lighter-than-average cars, and the 0.71% and 0.99% decreases in risk associated with mass reduction in heavier-than-average light trucks and CUVs/minivans, are statistically significant at the 90% confidence interval. The effect of mass reduction on risk that NHTSA estimated in 2016 is more beneficial than in its 2012 study, particularly for light trucks and CUVs/minivans. The 2016 NHTSA analysis estimates that reducing vehicle footprint by one square foot while holding mass constant would increase fatality risk per VMT by 0.28% in cars, by 0.38% in light trucks, and by 1.18% in CUVs and minivans.This report replicates the 2016 NHTSA analysis, and reproduces their main results. This report uses the confidence intervals output by the logistic regression models, which are smaller than the intervals NHTSA estimated using a jack-knife technique that accounts for the sampling error in the FARS fatality and state crash data. In addition to reproducing the NHTSA results, this report also examines the

  13. Review the number of accidents in Tehran over a two-year period and prediction of the number of events based on a time-series model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teymuri, Ghulam Heidar; Sadeghian, Marzieh; Kangavari, Mehdi; Asghari, Mehdi; Madrese, Elham; Abbasinia, Marzieh; Ahmadnezhad, Iman; Gholizadeh, Yavar

    2013-01-01

    Background: One of the significant dangers that threaten people’s lives is the increased risk of accidents. Annually, more than 1.3 million people die around the world as a result of accidents, and it has been estimated that approximately 300 deaths occur daily due to traffic accidents in the world with more than 50% of that number being people who were not even passengers in the cars. The aim of this study was to examine traffic accidents in Tehran and forecast the number of future accidents using a time-series model. Methods: The study was a cross-sectional study that was conducted in 2011. The sample population was all traffic accidents that caused death and physical injuries in Tehran in 2010 and 2011, as registered in the Tehran Emergency ward. The present study used Minitab 15 software to provide a description of accidents in Tehran for the specified time period as well as those that occurred during April 2012. Results: The results indicated that the average number of daily traffic accidents in Tehran in 2010 was 187 with a standard deviation of 83.6. In 2011, there was an average of 180 daily traffic accidents with a standard deviation of 39.5. One-way analysis of variance indicated that the average number of accidents in the city was different for different months of the year (P accidents occurred in March, July, August, and September. Thus, more accidents occurred in the summer than in the other seasons. The number of accidents was predicted based on an auto-regressive, moving average (ARMA) for April 2012. The number of accidents displayed a seasonal trend. The prediction of the number of accidents in the city during April of 2012 indicated that a total of 4,459 accidents would occur with mean of 149 accidents per day during these three months. Conclusion: The number of accidents in Tehran displayed a seasonal trend, and the number of accidents was different for different seasons of the year. PMID:26120405

  14. PERFORM 60: Prediction of the effects of radiation for reactor pressure vessel and in-core materials using multi-scale modelling - 60 years foreseen plant lifetime

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Al Mazouzi, A.; Alamo, A.; Lidbury, D.; Moinereau, D.; Van Dyck, S.

    2011-01-01

    stress corrosion behaviour of these materials in a primary coolant environment. Recently, relying on the existing PERFECT Roadmap, the FP7 Collaborative Project PERFORM 60 was launched with the overall objective of building on the success of PERFECT to develop similar tools that would allow simulation of the combined effects of irradiation and corrosion on internals, in addition to a further improvement of the existing tools which model irradiation effects in RPV bainitic steels. From a managerial viewpoint, PERFORM 60 is based on two technical sub-projects, namely (i) RPV and (ii) Internals. In addition, a User's Group and training scheme have been initiated in order to allow representatives of constructors, utilities, research organizations, etc. from Europe, USA and Japan to participate actively in the process of appraising the limits and potentialities of the developed tools and to assess their validation against qualified experimental data. Furthermore, significant efforts are being made to share knowledge and experience with young researchers in the field of nuclear materials degradation and to disseminate the results as widely as possible both within the project, and in international conferences, peer reviewed journals and via a dedicated website, that the latter serving as an 'open window' for internal communications and as a close link with similar projects underway worldwide. PERFORM 60 officially kicked off on March 1st, 2009 for a duration of 4 years. There are 20 participants. These comprise European organizations and Universities active in the nuclear field: all are engaged directly in the consortium to provide the intended software tools and to ensure that these are underpinned by physical understanding of the main mechanisms behind the observed in-service degradation phenomena.

  15. Status of 137Cs contamination in marine biota along the Pacific coast of eastern Japan derived from a dynamic biological model two years simulation following the Fukushima accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tateda, Yutaka; Tsumune, Daisuke; Tsubono, Takaki; Misumi, Kazuhiro; Yamada, Masatoshi; Kanda, Jota; Ishimaru, Takashi

    2016-01-01

    Radiocesium ( 134 Cs and 137 Cs) released into the Fukushima coastal environment was transferred to marine biota inhabiting the Pacific Ocean coastal waters of eastern Japan. Though the levels in most of the edible marine species decreased overtime, radiocesium concentrations in some fishes were still remained higher than the Japanese regulatory limit for seafood products. In this study, a dynamic food chain transfer model was applied to reconstruct 137 Cs levels in olive flounder by adopting the radiocesium concentrations in small demersal fish which constitute an important fraction of the diet of the olive flounder particularly inhabiting area near Fukushima. In addition, 137 Cs levels in slime flounder were also simulated using reported radiocesium concentrations in some prey organisms. The simulated results from Onahama on the southern border of the Fukushima coastline, and at Choshi the southernmost point where the contaminated water mass was transported by the Oyashio current, were assessed in order to identify what can be explained from present information, and what remains to be clarified three years after the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant (1FNPP) accident. As a result, the observed 137 Cs concentrations in planktivorous fish and their predator fish could be explained by the theoretically-derived simulated levels. On the other hand, the slow 137 Cs depuration in slime flounder can be attributed to uptake from unknown sources for which the uptake fluxes were of a similar magnitude as the excretion fluxes. Since the reported 137 Cs concentrations in benthic invertebrates off Onahama were higher than the simulated values, radiocesium transfer from these benthic detritivorous invertebrates to slime flounder via ingestion was suggested as a cause for the observed slow depuration of 137 Cs in demersal fish off southern Fukushima. Furthermore, the slower depuration in the demersal fish likely required an additional source of 137 Cs, i.e. contaminated

  16. Lean years

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barnet, R J

    1982-01-01

    The author attempts to take stock of five critical systems of resources: Energy, mineral resources, food, water, and human abilities. All five systems have been integrated, to an ever-increasing extent in global control systems. These control systems determine how many people, in what parts of the world, will be faced with hunger, cold, or unemployment. The author tries to find out who is in charge of these control systems, how they have come into existence, and on what strategies they are based. In the final chapter, ''Policy of survival'', the author states that the secret of survival in the lean years to come is still in the dark. Man's most fundamental desire is to be human, i.e. to be in harmony with nature both psychologically and biologically. Politics should take account of this and provide us with the means for doing what is necessary.

  17. Past Years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lodge, Oliver

    2012-07-01

    Preface; 1. Ancestry and early days; 2. Schooldays; 3. Relation with other boys at school; 4. Education; 5. Influence of the Royal Institution; 6. Later education in London; 7. Reminiscences of Bedford College; 8. Scientific work and friends in London; 9. Personal retrospect; 10. Romance; 11. Influence of the British Association; 12. Reminiscences of Coopers Hill and assistants and popular lectures; 13. Liverpool; 14. Scientific work at Liverpool; 15. Scientific work at Liverpool (cont.); 16. Scientific work at Liverpool (cont.); 17. Electric waves and the beginnings of wireless; 18. Other friends; 19. Family life; 20. Holidays; 21. Side issues; 22. Early experiences in psychical research; 23. Psychical research; 24. Further psychic adventures, and psycho-physical phenomena; 25. Reminiscences of my years at the university of Birmingham; 26. Birmingham friendships and recollections; 27. Scientific retrospect; 28. Apologia pro vita mea; Index.

  18. Concurrent agreement between an anthropometric model to predict thigh volume and dual-energy X-Ray absorptiometry assessment in female volleyball players aged 14-18 years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tavares, Óscar M; Valente-Dos-Santos, João; Duarte, João P; Póvoas, Susana C; Gobbo, Luís A; Fernandes, Rômulo A; Marinho, Daniel A; Casanova, José M; Sherar, Lauren B; Courteix, Daniel; Coelho-E-Silva, Manuel J

    2016-11-24

    A variety of performance outputs are strongly determined by lower limbs volume and composition in children and adolescents. The current study aimed to examine the validity of thigh volume (TV) estimated by anthropometry in late adolescent female volleyball players. Dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) measures were used as the reference method. Total and regional body composition was assessed with a Lunar DPX NT/Pro/MD+/Duo/Bravo scanner in a cross-sectional sample of 42 Portuguese female volleyball players aged 14-18 years (165.2 ± 0.9 cm; 61.1 ± 1.4 kg). TV was estimated with the reference method (TV-DXA) and with the anthropometric method (TV-ANTH). Agreement between procedures was assessed with Deming regression. The analysis also considered a calibration of the anthropometric approach. The equation that best predicted TV-DXA was: -0.899 + 0.876 × log 10 (body mass) + 0.113 × log 10 (TV-ANTH). This new model (NM) was validated using the predicted residual sum of squares (PRESS) method (R 2 PRESS  = 0.838). Correlation between the reference method and the NM was 0.934 (95%CI: 0.880-0.964, S y∙x  = 0.325 L). A new and accurate anthropometric method to estimate TV in adolescent female volleyball players was obtained from the equation of Jones and Pearson alongside with adjustments for body mass.

  19. Defining the Magnitude: Patterns, Regularities and Direct TOA-Surface Flux Relationships in the 15-Year Long CERES Satellite Data — Observations, Model and Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zagoni, M.

    2017-12-01

    Over the past fifteen years, the NASA Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) satellite mission has provided the scientific community with the most reliable Earth radiation budget data. This presentation offers quantitative assessment of the published CERES Energy Balanced and Filled (EBAF) Edition 2.8 and Edition 4.0 data products, and reveals several internal patterns, ratios and regularities within the annual global mean flux components of the all-sky and clear-sky surface and atmospheric energy budgets. The found patterns, among others, include: (i) direct relationships between the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiative and surface radiative and non-radiative fluxes (contradicting the expectation that TOA and surface fluxes are physically decoupled); (ii) integer ratios and relationships between the absorbed and emitted surface and atmospheric energy flow elements; and (iii) definite connections among the clear-sky and the all-sky shortwave, longwave and non-radiative (turbulent) flux elements and the corresponding greenhouse effect. Comparison between the EBAF Ed2.8 and Ed4.0 SFC and TOA data products and trend analyses of the normalized clear-sky and all-sky greenhouse factors are presented. Longwave cloud radiative effect (LW CRE) proved to be playing a principal role in organizing the found numerical patterns in the surface and atmospheric energy flow components. All of the revealed structures are quantitatively valid within the one-sigma range of uncertainty of the involved individual flux elements. This presentation offers a conceptual framework to interpret the found relationships and shows how the observed CERES fluxes can be deduced from this proposed physical model. An important conclusion drawn from our analysis is that the internal atmospheric and surface energy flow system forms a definite structure and seems to be more constrained to the incoming solar energy than previously thought.

  20. Comparative evaluation of fuzzy logic and genetic algorithms models for portfolio optimization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Heidar Masoumi Soureh

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Selection of optimum methods which have appropriate speed and precision for planning and de-cision-making has always been a challenge for investors and managers. One the most important concerns for them is investment planning and optimization for acquisition of desirable wealth under controlled risk with the best return. This paper proposes a model based on Markowitz the-orem by considering the aforementioned limitations in order to help effective decisions-making for portfolio selection. Then, the model is investigated by fuzzy logic and genetic algorithms, for the optimization of the portfolio in selected active companies listed in Tehran Stock Exchange over the period 2012-2016 and the results of the above models are discussed. The results show that the two studied models had functional differences in portfolio optimization, its tools and the possibility of supplementing each other and their selection.

  1. Burden of Six Healthcare-Associated Infections on European Population Health: Estimating Incidence-Based Disability-Adjusted Life Years through a Population Prevalence-Based Modelling Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eckmanns, Tim; Abu Sin, Muna; Ducomble, Tanja; Harder, Thomas; Sixtensson, Madlen; Velasco, Edward; Weiß, Bettina; Kramarz, Piotr; Monnet, Dominique L.; Kretzschmar, Mirjam E.; Suetens, Carl

    2016-01-01

    Background Estimating the burden of healthcare-associated infections (HAIs) compared to other communicable diseases is an ongoing challenge given the need for good quality data on the incidence of these infections and the involved comorbidities. Based on the methodology of the Burden of Communicable Diseases in Europe (BCoDE) project and 2011–2012 data from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) point prevalence survey (PPS) of HAIs and antimicrobial use in European acute care hospitals, we estimated the burden of six common HAIs. Methods and Findings The included HAIs were healthcare-associated pneumonia (HAP), healthcare-associated urinary tract infection (HA UTI), surgical site infection (SSI), healthcare-associated Clostridium difficile infection (HA CDI), healthcare-associated neonatal sepsis, and healthcare-associated primary bloodstream infection (HA primary BSI). The burden of these HAIs was measured in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Evidence relating to the disease progression pathway of each type of HAI was collected through systematic literature reviews, in order to estimate the risks attributable to HAIs. For each of the six HAIs, gender and age group prevalence from the ECDC PPS was converted into incidence rates by applying the Rhame and Sudderth formula. We adjusted for reduced life expectancy within the hospital population using three severity groups based on McCabe score data from the ECDC PPS. We estimated that 2,609,911 new cases of HAI occur every year in the European Union and European Economic Area (EU/EEA). The cumulative burden of the six HAIs was estimated at 501 DALYs per 100,000 general population each year in EU/EEA. HAP and HA primary BSI were associated with the highest burden and represented more than 60% of the total burden, with 169 and 145 DALYs per 100,000 total population, respectively. HA UTI, SSI, HA CDI, and HA primary BSI ranked as the third to sixth syndromes in terms of burden of disease

  2. Assessment of NHTSA’s Report “Relationships Between Fatality Risk, Mass, and Footprint in Model Year 2004-2011 Passenger Cars and LTVs” (LBNL Phase 1)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wenzel, Tom P.

    2018-03-28

    reduction while maintaining footprint on societal U.S. fatality risk is small, and not statistically significant at the 95% or 90% confidence level for all vehicle types based on the jack-knife method NHTSA used. This report also finds that the estimated effects of other control variables, such as vehicle type, specific safety technologies, and crash conditions such as whether the crash occurred at night, in a rural county, or on a high-speed road, on risk are much larger, in some cases two orders of magnitude larger, than the estimated effect of mass or footprint reduction on risk. Finally, this report shows that after accounting for the many vehicle, driver, and crash variables NHTSA used in its regression analyses, there remains a wide variation in risk by vehicle make and model, and this variation is unrelated to vehicle mass. Although the purpose of the NHTSA and LBNL reports is to estimate the effect of vehicle mass reduction on societal risk, this is not exactly what the regression models are estimating. Rather, they are estimating the recent historical relationship between mass and risk, after accounting for most measurable differences between vehicles, drivers, and crash times and locations. In essence, the regression models are comparing the risk of a 2600-lb Dodge Neon with that of a 2500-lb Honda Civic, after attempting to account for all other differences between the two vehicles. The models are not estimating the effect of literally removing 100 pounds from the Neon, leaving everything else unchanged. In addition, the analyses are based on the relationship of vehicle mass and footprint on risk for recent vehicle designs (model year 2004 to 2011). These relationships may or may not continue into the future as manufacturers utilize new vehicle designs and incorporate new technologies, such as more extensive use of strong lightweight materials and specific safety technologies. Therefore, throughout this report we use the phrase “the estimated effect of mass (or

  3. Analysis for dry and wet years with the WIMISA model of tree-crop competition for wind break systems in the Sahel

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mayus, M.; Keulen, van H.; Stroosnijder, L.

    1999-01-01

    A modelling approach was chosen for analyzing the effects of competition between windbreaks and crops for soil water and radiation in the Sahel. The model has a high spatial and temporal resolution to account for the heterogeneity in a windbreak-cropping system. The model was parameterised for

  4. Hotspots in research on the measurement of medical students' clinical competence from 2012-2016 based on co-word analysis.

    Science.gov (United Stat