WorldWideScience

Sample records for model years 2011-2015

  1. Multi-Year Program Plan 2011-2015

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    none,

    2010-12-01

    The Vehicle Technologies Multi-Year Program Plan, FY 2011 – 2015, outlines the scientific research and technologies developments for the five-year timeframe (beyond the FY 2010 base year) that need to be undertaken to help meet the Administration's goals for reductions in oil consumption and carbon emissions from the ground transport vehicle sector of the economy.

  2. Yearly Data for Spoken Language Preferences of Supplemental Security Income (Blind & Disabled) (2011-2015)

    Data.gov (United States)

    Social Security Administration — This data set provides annual volumes for language preferences at the national level of individuals filing claims for ESRD Medicare benefits for federal fiscal years...

  3. Yearly Data for Spoken Language Preferences of End Stage Renal Disease Medicare Claimants (2011-2015)

    Data.gov (United States)

    Social Security Administration — This data set provides annual volumes for language preferences at the national level of individuals filing claims for ESRD Medicare benefits for federal fiscal year...

  4. Yearly Data for Spoken Language Preferences of Social Security Retirement and Survivor Claimants (2011-2015)

    Data.gov (United States)

    Social Security Administration — This data set provides annual volumes for language preferences at the national level of individuals filing claims for ESRD Medicare benefits from federal fiscal year...

  5. Economic burden of varicella in children 1-12 Years of age in Hungary, 2011-2015.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meszner, Z; Molnar, Z; Rampakakis, E; Yang, H K; Kuter, B J; Wolfson, Lara J

    2017-07-14

    Although live-attenuated varicella-zoster virus (VZV) vaccines have been proven to be safe and effective in preventing varicella and real-word evidence shows routine childhood immunization programs are effective in dramatically reducing varicella associated morbidity and mortality, varicella vaccine is not included in the National Immunization Program (NIP) in Hungary. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the clinical and economic burden associated with varicella in Hungary. This was a multicenter, retrospective, chart review study of patients aged 1-12 years with a primary varicella diagnosis between 2011 and 2015. Healthcare resource utilization (HCRU) associated with varicella, unit costs, and work loss were used to estimate direct and indirect costs. All costs are presented in 2015 HUF / Euros (€). 156 children with varicella were included (75 outpatients, 81 inpatients), with a mean age of 4.4 (SD: 2.0) and 3.7 (SD: 2.1) years, respectively. One or more complications were reported by 12.0% of outpatients and 92.6% of inpatients, the most common being dehydration, skin and soft tissue infections, pneumonia, keratoconjunctivitis, and cerebellitis. HCRU estimates included use of over-the-counter (OTC) medications (96.0% outpatients, 53.1% inpatients), prescription medications (9.3% outpatients, 70.4% inpatients), tests/procedures (4.0% outpatients, 97.5% inpatients), and consultation with allied health professionals (2.7% outpatients, 30.9% inpatients). The average duration of hospital stay (inpatients) was 3.6 (95% CI: 3.2, 4.1) days. The total combined direct and indirect cost per varicella case was 228,146.7 Hungarian Forint (HUF)/€ 736.0 for inpatients and 49,790.6 HUF/€ 106.6 for outpatients. The overall annual cost of varicella in Hungary for children aged <15 years in 2015 was estimated at 1,903,332,524.3 HUF/ € 6,139,980.4. Varicella is associated with substantial clinical burden in Hungary, resulting in the utilization of a significant

  6. Canine angiostrongylosis in Sweden: a nationwide seroepidemiological survey by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays and a summary of five-year diagnostic activity (2011-2015).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grandi, Giulio; Lind, Eva Osterman; Schaper, Roland; Ågren, Erik; Schnyder, Manuela

    2017-12-19

    For the first time in Sweden, Angiostrongylus vasorum was detected on the island of Sydkoster in foxes and dogs in 2003. After sporadic detection of the parasite in foxes in southern Sweden, the first positive canine faecal sample on the mainland was found in 2011. Since then a total of 2882 faecal samples have been analysed with the Baermann test at the National Veterinary Institute (SVA) during the years 2011-2015; 20 of them being positive. Contemporaneously, of over 525 fox necropsies, only three were found to be infected. To gather a more accurate knowledge of A. vasorum occurrence in Sweden, a large scale seroepidemiological survey was performed and totally 3885 serum samples from dogs were tested for both the presence of circulating antigens and of specific antibodies to A. vasorum. In total, 0.10% (n = 4, 95% Confidence Intervals, CI 0.03-0.26%) of the dogs were positive for both antigen and antibodies, whereas 0.51% (n = 20, CI 0.31-0.79%) of the tested dogs were only antigen positive and 0.88% (n = 34, CI 0.61-1.22%) only positive for specific antibodies. Seropositive animals, as well as the majority of A. vasorum-positive faecal samples tested during the same period, were spread over central and southern Sweden. Annual prevalence of positive faecal dog samples and of necropsied A. vasorum positive foxes (coming from southern Sweden) varied from 0.3 to 0.9% (overall: 0.7%, CI 0.4-1.1%) and 0.0 to 1.4% (overall: 0.3%, CI 0.1-0.9%), respectively. The findings confirmed that A. vasorum has become established in various geographical areas of central and southern Sweden. Veterinarians and dog owners should be aware of the potential risks of infection in large areas of the country, since canine angiostrongylosis may be a fatal disease if left untreated.

  7. Draft environmental impact statement : corporate average fuel economy standards, passenger cars and light trucks, model years 2011-2015.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-06-01

    The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) has prepared this Draft Environmental Impact Statement (DEIS) to disclose and analyze the potential environmental impacts of the proposed new Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards a...

  8. Analysis of syphilis incidence at the territory in Saratov region (2011-2015

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Schnaider D.A.

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Aims: analysis of dynamics and pattern of syphilis incidence in 2011-2015 years in Saratov region. Materials and methods. The article provides analysis of the state statistical supervision forms from 2011-2015. Results. The analysis of the data obtained from the state statistical supervision forms during 2011-2015 years has shown the decreasing tendency of syphilis incidence. However, an unfavorable situation still remains in number of territories of Saratov region. The indicators of morbidity caused by late syphilis and neurosyphilis have increased. Conclusion. High incidence of syphilis has negative effect on the reproductive health of the general population. The fast spread of disease is generating special interest in conditions of demographic crisis.

  9. Association Between Parent Television-Viewing Practices and Setting Rules to Limit the Television-Viewing Time of Their 8- to 12-Year-Old Children, Minnesota, 2011-2015.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kubik, Martha Y; Gurvich, Olga V; Fulkerson, Jayne A

    2017-01-19

    Television (TV) viewing is popular among adults and children, and child TV-viewing time is positively associated with parent TV-viewing time. Efforts to limit the TV-viewing time of children typically target parent rule-setting. However, little is known about the association between parent TV-viewing practices and rule-setting. We used baseline height and weight data and survey data collected from 2011 through 2015 on parents and their 8- to 12-year-old children (N = 212 parent/child dyads) who were participants in 2 community-based obesity prevention intervention trials conducted in metropolitan Minnesota. Multivariable binary logistic regression analysis was used to assess the association between parent TV-viewing time on weekdays or weekend days (dichotomized as ≤2 hrs/d vs ≥2.5 hrs/d) and parent rules limiting child TV-viewing time. Child mean age was 10 (standard deviation [SD], 1.4) years, mean body mass index (BMI) percentile was 81 (SD, 16.7), approximately half of the sample were boys, and 42% of the sample was nonwhite. Parent mean age was 41 (SD, 7.5) years, and mean BMI was 29 (SD, 7.5); most of the sample was female, and 36% of the sample was nonwhite. Parents who limited their TV-viewing time on weekend days to 2 hours or fewer per day were almost 3 times more likely to report setting rules limiting child TV-viewing time than were parents who watched 2.5 hours or more per day (P = .01). A similar association was not seen for parent weekday TV-viewing time. For most adults and children, a meaningful decrease in sedentariness will require reductions in TV-viewing time. Family-based interventions to reduce TV-viewing time that target the TV-viewing practices of both children and parents are needed.

  10. Measles virus genotypes circulating in India, 2011-2015.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaidya, Sunil R; Chowdhury, Deepika T

    2017-05-01

    The Government of India is accepted to participate in the measles elimination and rubella control goal 2020, hence genetic characterization of measles viruses (MeV) becomes essential. At National Reference Laboratory (National Institute of Virology, Pune), the throat swabs/urine specimens (n = 380) or PCR products (n = 219) obtained from the suspected measles cases were referred for the molecular testing and subsequently, MeV nucleoprotein (N) gene sequencing/genotyping. In addition, 2,449 suspected measles cases, mainly from the Maharashtra state were referred for the laboratory diagnosis. A detailed study was performed on N gene sequences obtained during last two decades. Indian MeV sequences obtained during 2011-2015 were compared with 1996-2010 sequences and genetic divergence was studied. Circulation of measles genotypes B3 (n = 3), D4 (n = 49), and D8 (n = 351) strains were observed in 19 States and three Union Territories of India. In addition, 64 measles viruses were isolated from 253 throat swab or urine specimens obtained from the suspected measles cases. During 2011-2015, 67.9% (1,663/2,449) suspected measles cases were laboratory confirmed. Molecular studies showed circulation of measles genotype B3 in India along with prominently circulating genotypes D4 and D8 except D7 strains. The genetic diversion within Indian B3, D4, and D8 genotypes was 0.3%, 1.1%, and 2.1%, respectively. The genetic divergence of Indian B3, D4, and D8 measles strains with the WHO reference sequences was 2.5%, 2.6%, and 1.8%, respectively. It is crucial data for national immunization program. More measles/rubella genotyping studies are necessary to track transmission and to support measles elimination and rubella control. J. Med. Virol. 89:753-758, 2017. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  11. Analysis of scientific production in otolaryngology in Spain in the period 2011-2015.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopez-Escamez, Jose A; Manrique-Huarte, Raquel; Martin-Sanz, Eduardo; Trinidad, Gabriel

    2018-03-17

    Publishing in scientific journals is an indicator of hospital quality and has become a standard of excellence for medical doctors and institutions. The aim of the study is to identify the scientific publications performed by Otolaryngology Departments in Spain within the period 2011-2015 and to compare them to a previous period between 1998-2002. Original papers published by Otolaryngology Departments in Spain in PubMed within 2011-2015 were retrieved. They were classified according to the type of journal published (international or Acta ORL Española) and the following subspecialty areas: Otology, Audiology and Neuro-Otology, Head and Neck Surgery (including Oncology), Rhinology and Paediatric ENT. Hospitals were ranked according to: number of original papers, accumulated impact factor and total number of publications. Between 2011 and 2015, 49342 publications were included in PubMed, 1.44% from Otolaryngology Departments in Spain. Between 1998 and 2002, 3.80% publications were from Spanish ENT departments. Of the 712 papers published within the period 2011-2015, 389 were published in Acta ORL Española and 323 in international journals. From the latter, 20.7% belong to the Otology area, 19.2% to Audiology-Neuro-otology, 30.6% to Head and Neck Surgery, 15.2% to Rhinology and 3.4% to Paediatric ENT. Five tertiary centres published at least 10 original papers in the same period. Spanish otolaryngology's contribution to international journals has decreased in the last 12 years. A few institutions are responsible for the majority of publications and they have notably increased the cumulative impact factor. Copyright © 2018 Sociedad Española de Otorrinolaringología y Cirugía de Cabeza y Cuello. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  12. 75 FR 34736 - Draft FY 2011-2015 EPA Strategic Plan

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-06-18

    ... ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY [FRL-9163-6] Draft FY 2011-2015 EPA Strategic Plan AGENCY.... Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is announcing the availability of the Draft FY 2011-2015 EPA Strategic Plan (Strategic Plan) for public review and comment, as part of the periodic update required by the...

  13. 76 FR 4120 - The National Antimicrobial Resistance Monitoring System Strategic Plan 2011-2015; Request for...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-24

    ...] The National Antimicrobial Resistance Monitoring System Strategic Plan 2011-2015; Request for Comments... National Antimicrobial Resistance Monitoring System (NARMS) entitled ``NARMS Strategic Plan 2011-2015.../AntimicrobialResistance/NationalAntimicrobialResistanceMonitoringSystem/default.htm or http://www.regulations...

  14. 75 FR 80850 - Development of Strategic Plan 2011-2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-12-23

    ... strategic planning efforts. In addition, Among other sources, LSC is considering the guidance provided by... strategic planning models and guidance that LSC should consider. Finally, LSC also welcomes comments on... intended for use as LSC embarks on its planning process. LSC anticipates publishing a draft Strategic Plan...

  15. 76 FR 16795 - The National Antimicrobial Resistance Monitoring System Strategic Plan 2011-2015; Request for...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-03-25

    ...] The National Antimicrobial Resistance Monitoring System Strategic Plan 2011-2015; Request for Comments..., FDA requested comments on a document for the National Antimicrobial Resistance Monitoring System....fda.gov/AnimalVeterinary/SafetyHealth/AntimicrobialResistance/NationalAntimicrobialResistance...

  16. [Switzerland eliminates measles. National Strategy for the Elimination of Measles 2011-2015].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koch, D; Richard, J-L; Hanhart, J; Eckert, T; Eigenmann Schüttel, S

    2013-09-01

    The measles virus circulates within Switzerland in an endemic way leading to sporadic outbreaks. The most recent outbreak occurred in 2011. It lasted 9 months and had 687 reported cases. This is in contrast to 2012 when there were 66 cases,corresponding to an incidence of 8 cases per million inhabitants. During 2008-2010, the average national vaccination coverage for one or two doses of measles vaccine amounted to 92 and 83 % for 2-year-olds, 95 and 85 % for 8-year-olds, and 95 and 85 % for 16-year-olds, respectively. To improve the national vaccination coverage, the Federal Council adopted the National Strategy for the Elimination of Measles 2011-2015 in 2011.The strategy was drawn up in a participative process led by the Federal Office for Public Health.The cantons as key partners were represented by the Conference of the Cantonal Directors for Public Health and the Association of Cantonal Health Officers. The strategy pursues the vision of eliminating measles in Switzerland in order to protect the population against measles and its complications, including all persons who may not be vaccinated for medical reasons. The strategy comprises six axes of intervention:(1)political engagement and support by all stakeholders, (2)a targeted ≥ 95 % two-dose vaccination coverage for all 2-year-olds, (3)easier access and incentives for the booster vaccination for everyone in the 2-year-old age group up to those born in 1964, (4)communication and promotion, (5)uniform national outbreak control, and (6)targeted surveillance.

  17. Sexual Activity and Contraceptive Use Among Teenagers in the United States, 2011-2015.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abma, Joyce C; Martinez, Gladys M

    2017-06-01

    Objective-This report presents national estimates of sexual activity and contraceptive use among males and females aged 15-19 in the United States in 2011-2015, based on data from the National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG). For selected indicators, data are also presented from the 1988, 1995, 2002, and 2006-2010 NSFGs, and from the 1988 and 1995 National Survey of Adolescent Males, which was conducted by the Urban Institute. Methods-NSFG data were collected through in-person interviews with nationally representative samples of men and women aged 15-44 in the household population of the United States. NSFG 2011-2015 interviews were conducted between September 2011 and September 2015 with 20,621 men and women, including 4,134 teenagers (2,047 females and 2,087 males). The response rate was 72.5% for male teenagers and 73.0% for female teenagers. Results-In 2011-2015, 42.4% of never-married female teenagers (4.0 million) and 44.2% of never-married male teenagers (4.4 million) had had sexual intercourse at least once by the time of the interview (were sexually experienced). These levels of sexual experience among teenagers are similar to those seen in 2002 and 2006-2010 data. Longer-term trends, from 1988 to 2011-2015, show declines in the percentage of teenagers who were sexually experienced. Female teenagers' use of a method of contraception at first sex increased from 74.5% in 2002 to 81.0% in 2011-2015. Male teenagers' use of a condom at first sex increased from 70.9% in 2002 to 79.6% in 2006-2010 and remained stable at 76.8% in 2011-2015. Overall, in 2011-2015, 5.8% of female teenagers had used a long-acting reversible method (intrauterine device or implant). All material appearing in this report is in the public domain and may be reproduced or copied without permission; citation as to source, however, is appreciated.

  18. Pengaruh Globalisasi Terhadap Peredaran Narkotika Di Asia Tenggara Tahun 2011-2015

    OpenAIRE

    Azmi, Novia; Rani, Faisyal

    2017-01-01

    This study aims to explain the influence of globalization on drug trafficking in Southeast Asia 2011-2015. Globalization creates an increasingly cross-border movement easier and the increasing impact of transnational criminal networks. As many as 49% of the drug trafficking world today absorbed by the Southeast Asian market obtained from supplier countries such as Malaysia, China, India, Iran, and the Netherlands. In this study the authors use the perspective of constructivism. Constructivism...

  19. Imaging Characteristics and Prevalence of Pancreatic Carcinoma in Kosovo During 2011-2015 - Diagnostic Method as Choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dedushi, Kreshnike; Kabashi, Serbeze; Mucaj, Sefedin; Hasbahta, Gazmed; Ramadani, Naser; Hoxhaj, Astrit

    2016-06-01

    Pancreatic cancer is the 10(th)most common malignancy and the 4(th)largest cancer killer in adults. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the number of cases presented with pancreatic carcinoma during the years 2011-2015, our experience of the imaging characteristics of pancreatic carcinoma. We evaluated prevalence of the pancreatic cancers, distant metastases and other local infiltration signs among the total cases of the pancreatic cancers diagnosed in the University Clinical Center of Kosovo, with the aim to compare these research findings to similar studies made in the developed countries. This is a retrospective research study done during the period of 2011-2015. This retrospective research study includes 362 patients recently diagnosed with pancreatic cancer, examined in the period of 2011-2015 at the University Clinical Center of Kosovo. The imaging diagnostics are performed with MSCT Sensation 64 Siemens, MSCT Emotion 6 Siemens, and 1.5T MRI Symphony Siemens, biopsy guide with MSCT Sensation 64 Siemens in the Radiologic Clinic of UCCK; while the histopathology diagnostics has been performed in Clinic of Pathology at UCCK and prevalence is taken from the number of cases Reported at the Institute of Oncology Institute of Statistics and NIPH (National Institute of Public Health of Kosovo). Out of a total of the 362 patients diagnosed with pancreas cancer, results is female 39.5% (n=143) and male 61.5% (n=219), report M: F (1: 1.6), 286 cases resulted in head and neck 79 % (n=286), 76 cases resulted in body and tail cancers (21%), distant metastases in first imaging modality were found in(n=155) patients 43 %, local infiltration was found in patients: gastric infiltration 15 % (n=54), duodenal and papilla infiltration 26% (n=94), local infiltration spleen 16% (n=57), local infiltration mesentery 43 % (n= 155), dilated biliary tree 34 % (n=123), regional lymph node infiltration 83 % (n= 300). Out of a total of the 362 patients diagnosed with pancreas cancer

  20. International wind energy development. World market update 2010. Forecast 2011-2015

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2011-03-15

    44,781 MW, despite around a third of that capacity was not operational by the end of 2010 due to lack of sufficient grid capacity. Worldwide installations of wind energy generating capacity have now reached a total of 199,520 MW. The forecast released in this WMU shows an average growth rate of 15.5% for the period 2011-2015. The main trends reflected in this year's forecast are. 1) Globalization is taking place, with seven markets around the world now with an annual installation level of more than 1,000 MW. Twenty-one country markets have passed the milestone of more than 1,000 MW of cumulative capacity. Three markets have passed the 25,000 MW milestone - China, the US, and Germany; 2) Global growth will continue in spite of the constraints resulting from the international financial turmoil. Clear signs of recovery are being seen during 2010. Renewable energy, including wind power, is still one of the preferred assets for investors and is maintaining its priority status against the twin current challenges of economic recovery and climate change. (ln)

  1. 2011-2015 National action plan for the management of radon-related risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2011-01-01

    After an assessment of the 2005-2008 action plan, this report presents the 2011-2015 plan. It comprises five main axis: the implementation of a policy regarding the management of the radon-related risk in existing dwellings, the implementation of a regulation for new dwellings, the follow-up of the regulation regarding public places and that applicable to workers, the development and the implementation of new management tools for the diagnosis of buildings and works performed by professionals, and the coordination of policy regarding investigation and research. Each axis comprises several actions which are defined and presented. Eight key measures are also defined

  2. The analysis of the state of foreign trade in the republic of Tuva on the 2011-2015 time period

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aygul M. Oorzhak

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The article examines one of the most important topics in socioeconomic development of the Republic of Tuva — the region’s foreign trade. There is a marked lack of research on the current foreign trade turnover of Tuva. We used statistical data provided by the Agency for Foreign Economic Relations of the Republic of Tuva and the Siberian Customs Directorate of Federal Customs Service to analyze the foreign trade turnover and commodity structure of exports and imports for the years 2011-2015. The statistical data are presented in charts, showing the dynamics of the trends observed. In Tuva, imports exceed exports, with the main articles of export being minerals and foodstuffs, and those of import, machinery, equipment and vehicles. Despite the fact that the Republic of Tuva is a border region, its foreign trade is the smallest in the Siberian Federal district. In foreign trade turnover per capita (the indicator used by the World Bank to measure the openness of the global market, the economy of the Republic of Tuva is relatively closed. The factors hindering the development of foreign trade include the absence of railways and a small number of enterprises exporting competitive goods.

  3. Geographic Variation in Morbidity and Mortality of Cerebrovascular Diseases in Korea during 2011-2015.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Juyeon; Bahk, Jinwook; Kim, Ikhan; Kim, Yeon-Yong; Yun, Sung-Cheol; Kang, Hee-Yeon; Lee, Jeehye; Park, Jong Heon; Shin, Soon-Ae; Khang, Young-Ho

    2018-03-01

    Little is known about within-country variation in morbidity and mortality of cerebrovascular diseases (CVDs). Geographic differences in CVD morbidity and mortality have yet to be properly examined. This study examined geographic variation in morbidity and mortality of CVD, neighborhood factors for CVD morbidity and mortality, and the association between CVD morbidity and mortality across the 245 local districts in Korea during 2011-2015. District-level health care utilization and mortality data were obtained to estimate age-standardized CVD morbidity and mortality. The bivariate Pearson correlation was used to examine the linear relationship between district-level CVD morbidity and mortality Z-scores. Simple linear regression and multivariate analyses were conducted to investigate the associations of area characteristics with CVD morbidity, mortality, and discrepancies between morbidity and mortality. Substantial variation was found in CVD morbidity and mortality across the country, with 1074.9 excess CVD inpatients and 73.8 excess CVD deaths per 100,000 between the districts with the lowest and highest CVD morbidity and mortality, respectively. Higher rates of CVD admissions and deaths were clustered in the noncapital regions. A moderate geographic correlation between CVD morbidity and mortality was found (Pearson correlation coefficient = .62 for both genders). Neighborhood level indicators for socioeconomic disadvantages, undersupply of health care resources, and unhealthy behaviors were positively associated with CVD morbidity and mortality and the relative standing of CVD mortality vis-à-vis morbidity. Policy actions targeting life-course socioeconomic conditions, equitable distribution of health care resources, and behavioral risk factors may help reduce geographic differences in CVD morbidity and mortality in Korea. Copyright © 2018 National Stroke Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Analisis Faktor-Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Tingkat Bagi Hasil Simpanan Mudharabah pada Bank Umum Syariah Indonesia Studi Kasus pada Bank Umum Syariah di Indonesia Periode 2011-2015

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lydia Rahmadhini Arfiani

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to determine Analysis of Factors Affecting Level Sharing Mudharabah Savings On Islamic Banks partially or simultaneously on Bank Syariah period 2011-2015. The population in this study is the Islamic Banks operating in Indonesia 2011-2015. This study using purposive sampling method with variable FDR, NPF and inflation at the level of the results. After being selected, the target population amounted to 7 banks, among the BCA Syariah, BNI Syariah, BRI Syariah Bukopin Syariah Mandiri Syariah Muamalat, Panin Syariah. The analytical method used is the panel data regression. The model chosen is the Fixed Effects Model, then tested by t test and f with a significance level of 5%. Based on the test f note that in this study the variable financing to deposits ratio and non-performing financing and inflation simultaneously affect the level of revenue sharing sharia banks. Based on t test is known that in partial financing to deposits ratio, non-performing financning which have an influence on the level of revenue sharing sharia banks. Adjust R2 in this study indicate that all independent variables contributing as much as 51% on the dependent variable. The remaining 49% is influenced by other variables that do not exist in this study such as CAR, interest rate, economic growth.

  5. 2011-2015 National action plan for the management of radon-related risk; Plan national d'actions 2011-2015 pour la gestion du risque lie au radon

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2011-11-15

    After an assessment of the 2005-2008 action plan, this report presents the 2011-2015 plan. It comprises five main axis: the implementation of a policy regarding the management of the radon-related risk in existing dwellings, the implementation of a regulation for new dwellings, the follow-up of the regulation regarding public places and that applicable to workers, the development and the implementation of new management tools for the diagnosis of buildings and works performed by professionals, and the coordination of policy regarding investigation and research. Each axis comprises several actions which are defined and presented. Eight key measures are also defined

  6. Analisis Program Kerja Prodi Pbi Jurusan Tarbiyah STAIN Samarinda Tahun 2011-2015

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shafa Shafa

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The research is to analyze some aspects that are being the attention in the working program analysis, such as: Reinforcing of vision, mission, goal and target, also achievement strategy; Tutor arrangement, leadership, management system, and giving a guarantee of quality; Related to university student  and graduate; Human resource; Curriculum, teaching and learning, and academic situation; Funding, means and infrastructure, also information system; Research, servicing/ public service, and cooperation. The research goals are: (1 To dig what programs that has been arranged by English Department of STAIN Samarinda in academic year 20111-2015; (2 To know what steps that is taken by English Department in implementing the working program; (3 To analyze the strength/ opportunity and challenge that will be faced by English Department based on the working program that has been arranged. The research isdescriptive-qualitative that using some techniques of data collecting, namely: interview, observation, and documentation. The research respondents are Vice Chairmanof Student University Affairs,Chairman of Tarbiyah Department, and English Department coordinator. Then the data collection is analyzed by using analysis of SWOT. The research summary is: The steps that is taken by English Department in implementing the working program such as: socializing the vision, mission, and strategy of English Department through brochure and leaflet distribution, optimalizing the cooperation with stakeholder such as school and region government through the programs of Tarbiyah Department, building an intensive communication with the leadership party to back up the working program, maximizing the calculation every year that oriented on the increase of study of program quality from the managerial aspect or the human resource. Nevertheless, the working program of English Department implementation from the extend time of 2011 to 2013 the applicability is still minimized and

  7. National action plan 2011-2015 for the management of the radon-related risk. Assessment of the National action plan 2011-2015 for the management of the radon-related risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grall, Jean-Yves; Crepon, Etienne; Combrexelle, Jean-Denis; Niel, Jean-Christophe

    2011-01-01

    After a presentation of the context, and a brief assessment of the previous national action plan (2005-2008), a first report presents the second national action plan for 2011-2015 with its 8 main axes (implementation of a policy for the management of radon-related risk in existing dwellings, implementation of a regulation for new dwellings, follow-up of the regulation for buildings open to public and of the regulations applied to workers, development of new management tools and of a new operational device to perform building diagnosis and to perform works by building professionals, coordination of the study and research policy) and its 8 main measures. After a synthetic presentation of actions, 30 sheets present the different actions associated with each axis. A second report proposes an assessment of these 30 actions

  8. Human leptospirosis in the Federal District, Brazil, 2011-2015: eco-epidemiological characterization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivanildo de Oliveira Correia Santos

    Full Text Available Abstract INTRODUCTION: Leptospirosis is an infectious disease that affects more than 5,000 people per year in Brazil. The Federal District (FD lacks epidemiological studies of human leptospirosis and presents concerning rates of this disease, especially considering its lethality. METHODS: Seventy-nine autochthonous human cases of leptospirosis between 2011 and 2015 were analyzed, with the probable infection location serving as a basis for the collection and analysis of the environmental and epidemiological variables. RESULTS: The incidence of the disease ranged from 0.68-13.39 per 100,000 inhabitants in 21 of the 31 administrative regions that compose the FD. The local profile of human leptospirosis was predominantly associated with urban areas during the rainy season, population access to the sewage network, the treated water network, and the public garbage collection service. The vast majority of cases had a strong association with synanthropic rodents at the infection sites. CONCLUSIONS: In order to prevent and control potentially lethal human leptospirosis infection, the eco-epidemiological characterization of this disease is a valuable tool for public policies of prevention, control, and surveillance. In addition to population awareness, the systematized control of synanthropic rodents could be the main health action to reduce the incidence of this disease in the FD.

  9. Human leptospirosis in the Federal District, Brazil, 2011-2015: eco-epidemiological characterization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santos, Ivanildo de Oliveira Correia; Landi, Marina Frota de Albuquerque; Cruz, Laurício Monteiro; Bofill, Maria Isabel Rao; Santos, Divino Eterno Dos; Lima, Eduardo Maurício Mendes de; Castro, Márcio Botelho de

    2017-01-01

    Leptospirosis is an infectious disease that affects more than 5,000 people per year in Brazil. The Federal District (FD) lacks epidemiological studies of human leptospirosis and presents concerning rates of this disease, especially considering its lethality. Seventy-nine autochthonous human cases of leptospirosis between 2011 and 2015 were analyzed, with the probable infection location serving as a basis for the collection and analysis of the environmental and epidemiological variables. The incidence of the disease ranged from 0.68-13.39 per 100,000 inhabitants in 21 of the 31 administrative regions that compose the FD. The local profile of human leptospirosis was predominantly associated with urban areas during the rainy season, population access to the sewage network, the treated water network, and the public garbage collection service. The vast majority of cases had a strong association with synanthropic rodents at the infection sites. In order to prevent and control potentially lethal human leptospirosis infection, the eco-epidemiological characterization of this disease is a valuable tool for public policies of prevention, control, and surveillance. In addition to population awareness, the systematized control of synanthropic rodents could be the main health action to reduce the incidence of this disease in the FD.

  10. Alcohol use by suicide victims in the city of Sao Paulo, Brazil, 2011-2015.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonçalves, Raphael Eduardo Marques; Ponce, Júlio de Carvalho; Leyton, Vilma

    2018-01-01

    Excessive alcohol consumption is a serious public health issue, because drunkenness affects critical judgment and self-control which could trigger violent and self-harm behavior, with thus a potential association between alcohol consumption and suicide deaths. The objective of the present study was to assess the association between alcohol consumption and suicide deaths in the city of Sao Paulo, Brazil, from 2011 to 2015, and its relationship with socio-demographic characteristics of the victims and the circumstances of the suicide. A cross-sectional retrospective study was conducted by collection of data from 1,700 suicide victims subjected to examination of blood alcohol concentration (BAC) from toxicology reports from the Institute of Legal Medicine of the State of Sao Paulo, Brazil. Alcohol was detected in blood samples of 30.2% of the victims and mean BAC levels were 1.73 ± 0.08 g/L. The mean age of the victims was 39.90 ± 0.75 years. The majority of the victims were male (74.6%) and the prevalence of positive BAC was higher amongst men (34.7%) than women (17.1%), psuicide method in the sample (48.7%) and amongst men (55.4%), but amongst women it was jumping from a height (35%), p < 0.05. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd and Faculty of Forensic and Legal Medicine. All rights reserved.

  11. Spatio-temporal dynamic of malaria in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso, 2011-2015.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ouedraogo, Boukary; Inoue, Yasuko; Kambiré, Alinsa; Sallah, Kankoe; Dieng, Sokhna; Tine, Raphael; Rouamba, Toussaint; Herbreteau, Vincent; Sawadogo, Yacouba; Ouedraogo, Landaogo S L W; Yaka, Pascal; Ouedraogo, Ernest K; Dufour, Jean-Charles; Gaudart, Jean

    2018-04-02

    Given the scarcity of resources in developing countries, malaria treatment requires new strategies that target specific populations, time periods and geographical areas. While the spatial pattern of malaria transmission is known to vary depending on local conditions, its temporal evolution has yet to be evaluated. The aim of this study was to determine the spatio-temporal dynamic of malaria in the central region of Burkina Faso, taking into account meteorological factors. Drawing on national databases, 101 health areas were studied from 2011 to 2015, together with weekly meteorological data (temperature, number of rain events, rainfall, humidity, wind speed). Meteorological factors were investigated using a principal component analysis (PCA) to reduce dimensions and avoid collinearities. The Box-Jenkins ARIMA model was used to test the stationarity of the time series. The impact of meteorological factors on malaria incidence was measured with a general additive model. A change-point analysis was performed to detect malaria transmission periods. For each transmission period, malaria incidence was mapped and hotspots were identified using spatial cluster detection. Malaria incidence never went below 13.7 cases/10,000 person-weeks. The first and second PCA components (constituted by rain/humidity and temperatures, respectively) were correlated with malaria incidence with a lag of 2 weeks. The impact of temperature was significantly non-linear: malaria incidence increased with temperature but declined sharply with high temperature. A significant positive linear trend was found for the entire time period. Three transmission periods were detected: low (16.8-29.9 cases/10,000 person-weeks), high (51.7-84.8 cases/10,000 person-weeks), and intermediate (26.7-32.2 cases/10,000 person-weeks). The location of clusters identified as high risk varied little across transmission periods. This study highlighted the spatial variability and relative temporal stability of malaria

  12. Research Trends in Science Education International: A Content Analysis for the Last Five Years (2011-2015)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cavas, B.

    2015-01-01

    The main purpose of this article is to analyse 5 volumes and 20 issues of "Science Education International" ("SEI") according to the authors' nationality and research topics of the articles, published in the journal between 2011 and 2015. In total, 126 articles were published, successfully submitted by 281 authors in 43…

  13. An updated patent review: xanthine oxidase inhibitors for the treatment of hyperuricemia and gout (2011-2015).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ojha, Ritu; Singh, Jagjeet; Ojha, Anu; Singh, Harbinder; Sharma, Sahil; Nepali, Kunal

    2017-03-01

    Xanthine oxidase (XO) is a versatile molybdoflavoprotein, widely distributed, occurring in milk, kidney, lung, heart, and vascular endothelium. Catalysis by XO to produce uric acid and reactive oxygen species leads to many diseases. Anti hyperuricemic therapy by xanthine oxidase inhibitors has been mainly employed for the treatment of gout. Area covered: This review covers the patent literature (2011-2015) and also presents the interesting strategies/rational approaches employed for the design of xanthine oxidase inhibitors reported recently. Expert opinion: Recent literature indicates that various non purine scaffolds have been extensively investigated for xanthine oxidase inhibition. The significant potential endowed by heteroaryl based compounds, in particularly fused heterocycles clearly highlights their clinical promise and the need for detailed investigation. Studies by various research groups have also revealed that the flavone framework is open for isosteric replacements and structural modifications for yielding potent non purine xanthine oxidase inhibitors. In addition, various plant extracts recently reported to possess significant xanthine oxidase inhibitory potential presents enough promise to initiate a screening program for the identification of other plant extracts and phytoconstituents possessing inhibitory potential towards the enzyme.

  14. PENGARUH UTANG TERHADAP PROFITABILITAS PADA PERUSAHAAN FOOD & BEVERAGE YANG TERDAFTAR DI BURSA EFEK INDONESIA PERIODE 2011-2015

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maizah Rosita

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this research is to determine the effect of The Debt (Long Term Liabilities to Total Assets and Liabilities Total Assets to the return on assets, return on equity and earning per share. The research used secondary data from annual financial report  of Food & Beverage Company from 2011-2015 listed on BEI,  used  purposive sampling method and used multiple regression analysis. Based on the test result of simultan or test F The Long Term Liabilities to Total Assets and Short Term Liabilities is significant to the Return On Assets, Return On Equity and Earning per share. Result of partial test  or T Test, Long Term Liabilities to Total Assets is not significant on Return On assets, Short Term Liabilities to Total Assets is significant on Return on Assets. Long Term Liabilities to Total Assets is not significant to Return On Equity, Short Term Liabilities to Total Assets significant to Return On Equity, Long Term Liabilities to Total Assets in not significant to Earning per share, and Short Term Liabilities to Total assets is significant to Earning per share.

  15. Market Pressure on Currencies in Crises. Shadow Exchange Rate Experience of Argentina and Switzerland 2011-2015

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcin Gruszczyński

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Aim/purpose - The aim of this article is to present two cases of exchange rate controls in Switzerland and Argentina. The paper also examines the problem of presence and evaluation of shadow exchange rate in both countries. Design/methodology/approach - The shadow exchange rates are estimated using speculative pressure index concept that emphasizes the importance of not only exchange rate movements but also changes in foreign exchange reserves as well as interest rate differentials. The research sample covers Switzerland 2001-2016 and Argentina 2006-2016 (for shadow exchange rate simulation: 2011-2014 and 2011-2015, respectively. Findings - The conclusions drawn from international experience and conducted empirical analysis are positive. In both cases, shadow exchange rates were close to market rates after the removal of controls. During the restrictions periods shadow rates followed the intuition given by speculative pressure index concept (and by monetary approach, simultaneously. Research implications/limitations - The research suggests that market forces in both countries were still able to restore exchange rates to market values after the period of control. However, it is obvious that it is very difficult to prove that shadow rates were always determined by economical forces and close to their long-term equilibrium values. Originality/value/contribution - The original approach combines two important economic concepts - the idea of shadow exchange rate and the methodology of index of speculative pressure. Combined together they can help to analyze two interesting and relatively new cases of foreign exchange controls in Switzerland and Argentina. The results can be valuable for economists, researchers and politicians who support or reject the idea of controlling macroeconomic parameters in modern, open economy.

  16. Heterosexual male and female disparities in HIV infection at the end of an epidemic: HIV infection among persons who inject drugs in New York City, 2001-2005 and 2011-2015.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Des Jarlais, Don C; McKnight, Courtney; Feelemyer, Jonathan; Arasteh, Kamyar; Tross, Susan; Campbell, Aimee N C; Cooper, Hannah L F; Perlman, David C

    2018-04-01

    We examined whether sex disparities (heterosexual male:female) in HIV infection continue to persist at the "end of the HIV epidemic" among persons who inject drugs (PWID) in New York City (NYC). An "end of the epidemic" was operationally defined as 1) prevalence of untreated HIV infection <5%, and 2) estimated HIV incidence <0.5/100 person-years. PWID were recruited from persons entering substance use treatment programs at Mount Sinai Beth Israel in 2001-2005 and 2011-2015. A structured interview was administered, and HIV and HSV-2 testing was conducted. Incidence was estimated using newly diagnosed cases of HIV. Disparity analyses compared prevalence of HIV, of untreated HIV, HIV risk behaviors, and estimated HIV incidence. By 2011-2015, both heterosexual male and female PWID met the two criteria for an "end of the epidemic," and there were no significant differences in the prevalence of untreated HIV infection. A large sex difference remained in estimated HIV incidence. In 2013-2015, estimated HIV incidence was 2.8/10,000 PY for males and 7.1/10,000 PY for females. Females had greater risk for HIV on several factors. While NYC has reached an "end of the epidemic" for both heterosexual male and female PWID, sex disparities persist, particularly differences in HIV incidence. Eliminating the sex disparities may require a greater focus on factors associated with sexual transmission. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. Multi-site cholera surveillance within the African Cholera Surveillance Network shows endemicity in Mozambique, 2011-2015.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cynthia Semá Baltazar

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Mozambique suffers recurrent annual cholera outbreaks especially during the rainy season between October to March. The African Cholera Surveillance Network (Africhol was implemented in Mozambique in 2011 to generate accurate detailed surveillance data to support appropriate interventions for cholera control and prevention in the country.Africhol was implemented in enhanced surveillance zones located in the provinces of Sofala (Beira, Zambézia (District Mocuba, and Cabo Delgado (Pemba City. Data were also analyzed from the three outbreak areas that experienced the greatest number of cases during the time period under observation (in the districts of Cuamba, Montepuez, and Nampula. Rectal swabs were collected from suspected cases for identification of Vibrio cholerae, as well as clinical, behavioral, and socio-demographic variables. We analyzed factors associated with confirmed, hospitalized, and fatal cholera using multivariate logistic regression models. A total of 1,863 suspected cases and 23 deaths (case fatality ratio (CFR, 1.2% were reported from October 2011 to December 2015. Among these suspected cases, 52.2% were tested of which 23.5% were positive for Vibrio cholerae O1 Ogawa. Risk factors independently associated with the occurrence of confirmed cholera were living in Nampula city district, the year 2014, human immunodeficiency virus infection, and the primary water source for drinking.Cholera was endemic in Mozambique during the study period with a high CFR and identifiable risk factors. The study reinforces the importance of continued cholera surveillance, including a strong laboratory component. The results enhanced our understanding of the need to target priority areas and at-risk populations for interventions including oral cholera vaccine (OCV use, and assess the impact of prevention and control strategies. Our data were instrumental in informing integrated prevention and control efforts during major cholera outbreaks in recent

  18. Multi-site cholera surveillance within the African Cholera Surveillance Network shows endemicity in Mozambique, 2011-2015.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Semá Baltazar, Cynthia; Langa, José Paulo; Dengo Baloi, Liliana; Wood, Richard; Ouedraogo, Issaka; Njanpop-Lafourcade, Berthe-Marie; Inguane, Dorteia; Elias Chitio, Jucunu; Mhlanga, Themba; Gujral, Lorna; D Gessner, Bradford; Munier, Aline; A Mengel, Martin

    2017-10-01

    Mozambique suffers recurrent annual cholera outbreaks especially during the rainy season between October to March. The African Cholera Surveillance Network (Africhol) was implemented in Mozambique in 2011 to generate accurate detailed surveillance data to support appropriate interventions for cholera control and prevention in the country. Africhol was implemented in enhanced surveillance zones located in the provinces of Sofala (Beira), Zambézia (District Mocuba), and Cabo Delgado (Pemba City). Data were also analyzed from the three outbreak areas that experienced the greatest number of cases during the time period under observation (in the districts of Cuamba, Montepuez, and Nampula). Rectal swabs were collected from suspected cases for identification of Vibrio cholerae, as well as clinical, behavioral, and socio-demographic variables. We analyzed factors associated with confirmed, hospitalized, and fatal cholera using multivariate logistic regression models. A total of 1,863 suspected cases and 23 deaths (case fatality ratio (CFR), 1.2%) were reported from October 2011 to December 2015. Among these suspected cases, 52.2% were tested of which 23.5% were positive for Vibrio cholerae O1 Ogawa. Risk factors independently associated with the occurrence of confirmed cholera were living in Nampula city district, the year 2014, human immunodeficiency virus infection, and the primary water source for drinking. Cholera was endemic in Mozambique during the study period with a high CFR and identifiable risk factors. The study reinforces the importance of continued cholera surveillance, including a strong laboratory component. The results enhanced our understanding of the need to target priority areas and at-risk populations for interventions including oral cholera vaccine (OCV) use, and assess the impact of prevention and control strategies. Our data were instrumental in informing integrated prevention and control efforts during major cholera outbreaks in recent years.

  19. AN ANTHOLOGY OF THE DISTINGUISHED ACHIEVEMENTS IN SCIENCE AND TECHNIQUE. PART 39: NOBEL PRIZE LAUREATES IN PHYSICS FOR 2011-2015

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. I. Baranov

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Purpose. Implementation of brief analytical review of the distinguished scientific achievements of the world scientists-physicists, awarded the Nobel Prize on physics for the period 2011-2015. Methodology. Scientific methods of collection, analysis and analytical treatment of scientific and technical information of world level in area of astrophysics, physics of elementary particles, physics of high energies, of modern theoretical and experimental physics. Results. The brief analytical review of the scientific openings and distinguished achievements of scientists-physicists is resulted in area of modern physical and technical problems which were marked the Nobel Prizes on physics for the period 2011-2015. Originality. Systematization is executed with exposition in the short concentrated form of the known scientific and technical materials, devoted opening of acceleration of expansion of Universe, creation of breach technologies of manipulation the quantum systems, theoretical discovery of mechanism of origin of mass of under-atomic particles, invention of effective power sources of light − blue light-emitting diodes and opening of neutrino oscillations. Practical value. Popularization and deepening of scientific and technical knowledges for students, engineers and technical specialists and research workers in area of modern theoretical and experimental physics, extending their scientific range of interests and cooperation in further development of scientific and technical progress in human society.

  20. Scaling up towards international targets for AIDS, tuberculosis, and malaria: contribution of global fund-supported programs in 2011-2015.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Itamar Katz

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: The paper projects the contribution to 2011-2015 international targets of three major pandemics by programs in 140 countries funded by the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, the largest external financier of tuberculosis and malaria programs and a major external funder of HIV programs in low and middle income countries. DESIGN: Estimates, using past trends, for the period 2011-2015 of the number of persons receiving antiretroviral (ARV treatment, tuberculosis case detection using the internationally approved DOTS strategy, and insecticide-treated nets (ITNs to be delivered by programs in low and middle income countries supported by the Global Fund compared to international targets established by UNAIDS, Stop TB Partnership, Roll Back Malaria Partnership and the World Health Organisation. RESULTS: Global Fund-supported programs are projected to provide ARV treatment to 5.5-5.8 million people, providing 30%-31% of the 2015 international target. Investments in tuberculosis and malaria control will enable reaching in 2015 60%-63% of the international target for tuberculosis case detection and 30%-35% of the ITN distribution target in sub-Saharan Africa. CONCLUSION: Global Fund investments will substantially contribute to the achievement by 2015 of international targets for HIV, TB and malaria. However, additional large scale international and domestic financing is needed if these targets are to be reached by 2015.

  1. Early outcome of patients undergoing transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI): The Auckland City Hospital experience 2011-2015.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Sylvia S Y; Wang, Tom Kai Ming; Nand, Parma; Ramanathan, Tharumenthiran; Webster, Mark; Stewart, Jim

    2016-01-08

    Transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) is an alternative to surgical aortic valve replacement (AVR) in high-risk patients. We report the initial TAVI experience at Auckland City Hospital. The records of patients undergoing TAVI between 2011 and 2015 at Auckland City Hospital were reviewed. We report the procedural success and outcome, including major adverse events (death, stroke, myocardial infarction, bleeding, vascular complications and rehospitalisations), degree of aortic regurgitation and symptom status up to 1-year follow-up. Mean age was 80.7 years and mean Euroscore II and Society of Thoracic Surgeons' scores were 8.2% and 6.3% respectively; 50% had undergone previous cardiac surgery. Successful deployment of the valve was achieved in all patients. The cumulative mortality rates at 30 days, 6 months and 1 year were 2.4%, 6.1% and 12.2% and cumulative stroke rates 1.2%, 3% and 8.2% respectively. Severe aortic regurgitation occurred in 2.3% TAVI is available in the New Zealand public hospital system for patients who are high-risk candidates for AVR. Early results are excellent and indicate that the technology is being used appropriately, according to current access criteria. If the early cost effectiveness data are confirmed, the indications for TAVI may widen.

  2. Trends in characteristics and multi-product use among adolescents who use electronic cigarettes, United States 2011-2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaffee, Benjamin W.; Couch, Elizabeth T.; Gansky, Stuart A.

    2017-01-01

    Objectives Evaluate trends from 2011–2015 in electronic cigarette (e-cigarette) use among U.S. adolescents, grades 6–12, including prevalence and associations with past month use of cigarettes and other tobacco products, cigarette smoking intensity, quit attempts, and quit contemplation. Methods Five consecutive waves from the National Youth Tobacco Survey (N = 101,011) were used to estimate the grade- and race/ethnicity-standardized prevalence of past month use of e-cigarettes and nine non e-cigarette tobacco products. We assessed linear trends by year and compared outcomes (e.g., tobacco use, smoking intensity) by e-cigarette past month use. Results Past month e-cigarette use rose sharply from 2011–2015. In all years and both sexes, e-cigarette past month use and ever use were positively associated with use of cigarettes and other tobacco products, with past month e-cigarette use reaching 52% in 2015 among individuals who used ≥1 non e-cigarette tobacco product in the past month. Meanwhile, from 2011–2015, the population of adolescent past month e-cigarette users increasingly encompassed adolescents who were not past month users of other products (females: 19.0% to 41.7%; males: 11.1% to 36.7%) or had never used other products (females: 7.1% to 13.5%; males: 6.7% to 15.0%). Among male (but not female) past month cigarette users, there was a statistically significant positive association between past month e-cigarette use and daily cigarette smoking but not in all individual years. Past month e-cigarette use among past month cigarette smokers was not associated with cigarette quit attempts or quit contemplation, with no temporal trend. Conclusion Adolescent past month e-cigarette use is associated with past month use of other tobacco but not with cigarette quit attempts or quit contemplation among cigarette users. Over five years, the average characteristics of U.S. adolescents who use e-cigarettes have shifted, increasingly including more adolescents

  3. Role of PAHO/WHO in eHealth Capacity Building in the Americas: Analysis of the 2011-2015 period.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Novillo-Ortiz, David; D'Agostino, Marcelo; Becerra-Posada, Francisco

    2016-08-01

    Political will and adoption of measures toward the use of eHealth have been steadily increasing, facilitating mobilization of resources necessary to adopt and implement digital services that will make it possible to improve access, expand coverage, and increase financial efficiency of health care systems. Adoption of the Strategy and Plan of Action on eHealth of the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) in 2011 by all Member States in the Region of the Americas has led the Region to major progress in this regard, including the following: creation of knowledge networks and development of information sources, establishment of eHealth sustainability models, support for development of electronic health records, promotion of standards on health data and related technologies that ensure exchange of information, use of mobile devices to improve health, and improvement in quality of care through telemedicine. This article details the main actions carried out by PAHO with regard to eHealth, specifically by the office of Knowledge Management, Bioethics, and Research in the 2011-2015 period (first period of implementation of the PAHO eHealth strategy and plan of action), which include research and capacity-building activities, development of technical guidelines, and formation of knowledge networks. RESUMEN La voluntad política y la adopción de medidas en relación con el uso de la eSalud han ido en aumento de forma constante, favoreciendo la movilización de los recursos necesarios a fin de adoptar y poner en marcha servicios digitales que permitan mejorar el acceso, ampliar la cobertura y aumentar la eficiencia financiera de los sistemas de atención de salud. Con la aprobación de la Estrategia y Plan de Acción de eSalud de la Organización Panamericana de la Salud (OPS) en 2011 por todos los Estados Miembros de la Región de las Américas, se han realizado importantes avances a este respecto en la Región, entre los que se destacan: la creación de redes de

  4. Update: Exertional rhabdomyolysis, active component, U.S. Army, Navy, Air Force, and Marine Corps, 2011-2015.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armed Forces Health Surveillance Branch

    2016-03-01

    Among active component members of the U.S. Army, Navy, Air Force, and Marine Corps in 2015, there were 456 incident episodes of rhabdomyolysis likely due to physical exertion or heat stress ("exertional rhabdomyolysis"). Annual rates of incident diagnoses of exertional rhabdomyolysis increased 17% between 2014 and 2015. In 2015, the highest incidence rates occurred in service members who were male; younger than 20 years of age; black, non-Hispanic; members of the Marine Corps and Army; recruit trainees; and in combat-specific occupations. Most cases of exertional rhabdomyolysis were diagnosed at installations that support basic combat/recruit training or major ground combat units of the Army or Marine Corps. Medical care providers should consider exertional rhabdomyolysis in the differential diagnosis when service members (particularly recruits) present with muscular pain and swelling, limited range of motion, or the excretion of dark urine (e.g., myoglobinuria) after strenuous physical activity, particularly in hot, humid weather.

  5. Fleet Compliance Annual Report: Model Year 2015, Fiscal Year 2016

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2016-12-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) regulates covered state government and alternative fuel provider fleets, pursuant to the Energy Policy Act of 1992 (EPAct), as amended. This report details compliance for model year 2015, fiscal year 2016.

  6. Detection and Establishment of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) Mosquitoes in California, 2011-2015.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Metzger, Marco E; Hardstone Yoshimizu, Melissa; Padgett, Kerry A; Hu, Renjie; Kramer, Vicki L

    2017-05-01

    In 2011, a thriving population of Aedes albopictus (Skuse), the Asian tiger mosquito, was discovered within three cities in Los Angeles County over an estimated 52-km2 urban area. Two years later in 2013, Aedes aegypti (L.), the yellow fever mosquito, was detected within several urban areas of Madera, Fresno, and San Mateo counties. State and local vector control agencies responded with an aggressive effort to eradicate or interrupt the spread of these two invasive mosquitoes; however, known populations continued to expand outward and new infestations were identified at an accelerated pace in central and southern California. By the end of 2015, one or both species had been detected within the jurisdictional boundaries of 85 cities and census-designated places in 12 counties. Herein we report on the discovery and widespread establishment of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus in urban areas of coastal, central, and southern California between 2011 and 2015 and discuss the subsequent rapid changes to the activities and priorities of vector control agencies in response to this unprecedented invasion. © The Authors 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  7. Magmatic degassing, lava dome extrusion, and explosions from Mount Cleveland volcano, Alaska, 2011-2015: Insight into the continuous nature of volcanic activity over multi-year timescales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Werner, Cynthia; Kern, Christoph; Coppola, Diego; Lyons, John J.; Kelly, Peter J.; Wallace, Kristi L.; Schneider, David J.; Wessels, Rick L.

    2017-05-01

    Mount Cleveland volcano (1730 m) is one of the most active volcanoes in the Aleutian arc, Alaska, but heightened activity is rarely accompanied by geophysical signals, which makes interpretation of the activity difficult. In this study, we combine volcanic gas emissions measured for the first time in August 2015 with longer-term measurements of thermal output and lava extrusion rates between 2011 and 2015 calculated from MODIS satellite data with the aim to develop a better understanding of the nature of volcanic activity at Mount Cleveland. Degassing measurements were made in the month following two explosive events (21 July and 7 August 2015) and during a period of new dome growth in the summit crater. SO2 emission rates ranged from 400 to 860 t d- 1 and CO2/SO2 ratios were output were often coincident with visual confirmation of dome growth or accumulations of tephra in the crater. The average rate of lava extrusion calculated for 9 periods of rapid increase in thermal output was 0.28 m3 s- 1, and the total volume extruded from 2011 to 2015 was 1.9-5.8 Mm3. The thermal output from the lava extrusion events only accounts for roughly half of the thermal budget, suggesting a continued presence of shallow magma in the upper conduit, likely driven by convection. Axisymmetric dome morphology and occasional drain back of lava into the conduit suggests low-viscosity magmas drive volcanism at Mount Cleveland. It follows also that only small overpressures can be maintained given the small domes and fluid magmas, which is consistent with the low explosivity of most of Mount Cleveland's eruptions. Changes between phases of dome growth and explosive activity are somewhat unpredictable and likely result from plugs that are related to the dome obtaining a critical dimension, or from small variations in the magma ascent rate that lead to crystallization-induced blockages in the upper conduit, thereby reducing the ability of magma to degas. We suggest the small magma volumes, slow ascent rates, and low magma viscosity lead to the overall lack of anomalous geophysical signals prior to eruptions, and that more continuous volcanic degassing measurements might lead to more successful eruption forecasting at this continuously-active open-vent volcano.

  8. Elevated Risk for Antimicrobial Drug-Resistant Shigella Infection among Men Who Have Sex with Men, United States, 2011-2015.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowen, Anna; Grass, Julian; Bicknese, Amelia; Campbell, Davina; Hurd, Jacqueline; Kirkcaldy, Robert D

    2016-09-01

    Shigella spp. cause ≈500,000 illnesses in the United States annually, and resistance to ciprofloxacin, ceftriaxone, and azithromycin is emerging. We investigated associations between transmission route and antimicrobial resistance among US shigellosis clusters reported during 2011-2015. Of 32 clusters, 9 were caused by shigellae resistant to ciprofloxacin (3 clusters), ceftriaxone (2 clusters), or azithromycin (7 clusters); 3 clusters were resistant to >1 of these drugs. We observed resistance to any of these drugs in all 7 clusters among men who have sex with men (MSM) but in only 2 of the other 25 clusters (p<0.001). Azithromycin resistance was more common among MSM-associated clusters than other clusters (86% vs. 4% of clusters; p<0.001). For adults with suspected shigellosis, clinicians should culture feces; obtain sex histories; discuss shigellosis prevention; and choose treatment, when needed, according to antimicrobial drug susceptibility. Public health interviews for enteric illnesses should encompass sex practices; health messaging for MSM must include shigellosis prevention.

  9. Innovation, creative ideas to attend the challenges of the Central Laguna Verde for the period 2011-2015 due to new 100% of power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rivera C, A.

    2011-11-01

    For the nuclear power plant of Laguna Verde (CLV) is an opportunity to present to the nuclear community in Mexico the improvement areas and challenges for the period 2011-2015, now that has been concluded the phase of starting tests of the CLV modernization, with an increment of power of 20% that represents a new generation of electrical power of 815 M We per hour in the 2 Units, with these new challenges the strategic planning 2011 at 2015 take relevance to give guide to the innovation, with new ideas of improvement to the processes, human resources and leadership, with the purpose of maintaining reliable all the equipment s and process systems by means of the use of strengths, opportunities, vulnerabilities and threats analysis, in order to make strategies that aid to generate competitive advantages for the production of electric power in Mexico, using privileged information that contain the database of the improvement systems, like are the programs of corrective action, of human acting, of external operational experience, of auto-evaluation and of benchmarking that is the referential comparison with other similar power stations. At present, in the general management of operation exist the training by coaching to grow in the formation of the half commands and line supervisors, reinforcing the wanted behaviors, the abilities of the technicians, and the orientation in deficient performances in the search of the operational excellence. (Author)

  10. [Infection by Bordetella pertussis and bordetella parapertussis in cases of suspected whooping cough (2011-2015) in Mar del Plata, Argentina].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lavayén, Silvina; Zotta, Claudia; Cepeda, Marcela; Lara, Claudia; Rearte, Analia; Regueira, Mabel

    2017-01-01

    . To classify the study population in the Argentinian National Health Surveillance System framework, determine the proportion of infection by Bordetella pertussis and Bordetella parapertussis, and identify factors associated with the cases of suspected whooping cough attended to in the city of Mar del Plata and its outskirts during the period 2011- 2015. An observational and descriptive study was carried out. Clinical cases with suspicion of whooping cough were diagnosed by laboratory. The laboratory studies consisted of culture, PCR, and serology using the ELISA technique. A total of 572 cases were evaluated. The female sex was the most frequent (51.9%). The most frequent age range was 2 to 17 moths (51.1%; 290/568), which was also the group with the most confirmed cases. Only 47.8% (155/324) of the population studied had complete vaccination for their age. Whooping cough due to B. pertussis was confirmed in 15.5% (89/572) of cases and one case with B. parapertussis. Those cases that had contact with a coughing relative were significantly associated with the confirmation of Bordetella spp. by the laboratory (odds ratio: 3.3; 95% confidence interval: 1.9-5.4). The results show the need to suspect whooping cough and diagnose it early in children, adolescents, and adults in order to better control the disease. Likewise, continuing prevention and containment measures are fundamental in decreasing the circulation of the causal agent.

  11. One Hundred Years of Bohr Model

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    IAS Admin

    In this article I shall present a brief review of the hundred-year young Bohr model of the atom. In particular, I will first introduce the Thomson and the Rutherford models of atoms, their shortcom- ings and then discuss in some detail the develop- ment of the atomic model by Niels Bohr. Fur- ther, I will mention its refinements at ...

  12. One Hundred Years of Bohr Model

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    IAS Admin

    science at school and college level. In this article I shall present a brief review of the hundred-year young Bohr model of the atom. In particular, I will first introduce the Thomson and .... This model, despite being successful, had one major problem. ... This tempted several people to look for an empirical formula which would ...

  13. Red meat and chicken consumption and its association with high blood pressure and obesity in South Korean children and adolescents: a cross-sectional analysis of KSHES, 2011-2015.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Geum Hee; Shin, Sang Won; Lee, Juneyoung; Hwang, Jun Hyun; Park, Soon-Woo; Moon, Jin Soo; Kim, Hyun Jung; Ahn, Hyeong Sik

    2017-05-22

    The impact of meat consumption on high blood pressure (HBP) and obesity in children and adolescents is a subject of debate. The aim of this study was thus to evaluate the association between meat consumption and both HBP and obesity in this group. We performed a cross-sectional analysis using nationally representative samples of children and adolescents aged 9, 12, and 15 years old (n = 136,739) who were included in the Korea School Health Examination Survey (KSHES) for the 2011-2015 period. Multiple linear and logistic regression analysis was used to determine the factors influencing systolic blood pressure (SBP), diastolic blood pressure (DBP), and body mass index (BMI, kg/m 2 ) levels, and to test the strength of these relationships. Adjusted for covariates, 6.3% of those subjects who consumed >5 servings of meat (including beef, pork, and chicken) per week were obese, compared with 9.1% of the subjects who consumed 5 servings of meat/wk (systolic HBP adjusted OR: 1.30; 95% CI: 1.05-1.62; P ≤0.01, diastolic HBP adjusted OR: 1.25; 95% CI: 1.02-1.54; P 5 servings of meat/wk, those who consumed 0.05). In contrast, BMI was significantly associated with milk, fruits, and vegetables (P <0.01). Among children and adolescents, a higher level of meat consumption was associated with lower SBP, DBP, and BMI, and greater height, suggesting that consuming an appropriate amount of meat is important for healthy growth at a young age.

  14. Innovation, creative ideas to attend the challenges of the Central Laguna Verde for the period 2011-2015 due to new 100% of power; Innovacion, ideas creativas para atender los retos y desafios del periodo de la Central Laguna Verde en 2011-2015 por el nuevo 100% de potencia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rivera C, A., E-mail: arr99999@cfe.gob.mx [Comision Federal de Electricidad, Central Nucleoelectrica Laguna Verde, Carretera Cardel-Nautla Km 42.5, Veracruz (Mexico)

    2011-11-15

    For the nuclear power plant of Laguna Verde (CLV) is an opportunity to present to the nuclear community in Mexico the improvement areas and challenges for the period 2011-2015, now that has been concluded the phase of starting tests of the CLV modernization, with an increment of power of 20% that represents a new generation of electrical power of 815 M We per hour in the 2 Units, with these new challenges the strategic planning 2011 at 2015 take relevance to give guide to the innovation, with new ideas of improvement to the processes, human resources and leadership, with the purpose of maintaining reliable all the equipment s and process systems by means of the use of strengths, opportunities, vulnerabilities and threats analysis, in order to make strategies that aid to generate competitive advantages for the production of electric power in Mexico, using privileged information that contain the database of the improvement systems, like are the programs of corrective action, of human acting, of external operational experience, of auto-evaluation and of benchmarking that is the referential comparison with other similar power stations. At present, in the general management of operation exist the training by coaching to grow in the formation of the half commands and line supervisors, reinforcing the wanted behaviors, the abilities of the technicians, and the orientation in deficient performances in the search of the operational excellence. (Author)

  15. The standard model 30 years of glory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lefrancois, J.

    2001-03-01

    In these 3 lectures the author reviews the achievements of the past 30 years, which saw the birth and the detailed confirmation of the standard model. The first lecture is dedicated to quantum chromodynamics (QCD), deep inelastic scattering, neutrino scattering results, R(e + ,e - ), scaling violation, Drell-Yan reactions and the observation of jets. The second lecture deals with weak interactions and quark and lepton families, the discovery of W and Z bosons, of charm, of the tau lepton and B quarks are detailed. The third lecture focuses on the stunning progress that have been made in accuracy concerning detectors, the typical level of accuracy of previous e + e - experiments was about 5-10%, while the accuracy obtained at LEP/SLC is of order 0.1% to 0.5%. (A.C.)

  16. 49 CFR 537.7 - Pre-model year and mid-model year reports.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ...) of this section for the manufacturer's passenger automobiles for the current model year. (2) After...) State the projected average fuel economy for the manufacturer's automobiles determined in accordance with § 537.9 and based upon the fuel economy values and projected sales figures provided under...

  17. Epidemiology of cholera outbreaks and socio-economic characteristics of the communities in the fishing villages of Uganda: 2011-2015.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bwire, Godfrey; Munier, Aline; Ouedraogo, Issaka; Heyerdahl, Leonard; Komakech, Henry; Kagirita, Atek; Wood, Richard; Mhlanga, Raymond; Njanpop-Lafourcade, Berthe; Malimbo, Mugagga; Makumbi, Issa; Wandawa, Jennifer; Gessner, Bradford D; Orach, Christopher Garimoi; Mengel, Martin A

    2017-03-01

    The communities in fishing villages in the Great Lakes Region of Africa and particularly in Uganda experience recurrent cholera outbreaks that lead to considerable mortality and morbidity. We evaluated cholera epidemiology and population characteristics in the fishing villages of Uganda to better target prevention and control interventions of cholera and contribute to its elimination from those communities. We conducted a prospective study between 2011-15 in fishing villages in Uganda. We collected, reviewed and documented epidemiological and socioeconomic data for 10 cholera outbreaks that occurred in fishing communities located along the African Great Lakes and River Nile in Uganda. These outbreaks caused 1,827 suspected cholera cases and 43 deaths, with a Case-Fatality Ratio (CFR) of 2.4%. Though the communities in the fishing villages make up only 5-10% of the Ugandan population, they bear the biggest burden of cholera contributing 58% and 55% of all reported cases and deaths in Uganda during the study period. The CFR was significantly higher among males than females (3.2% vs. 1.3%, p = 0.02). The outbreaks were seasonal with most cases occurring during the months of April-May. Male children under age of 5 years, and 5-9 years had increased risk. Cholera was endemic in some villages with well-defined "hotspots". Practices predisposing communities to cholera outbreaks included: the use of contaminated lake water, poor sanitation and hygiene. Additional factors were: ignorance, illiteracy, and poverty. Cholera outbreaks were a major cause of morbidity and mortality among the fishing communities in Uganda. In addition to improvements in water, sanitation, and hygiene, oral cholera vaccines could play an important role in the prevention and control of these outbreaks, particularly when targeted to high-risk areas and populations. Promotion and facilitation of access to social services including education and reduction in poverty should contribute to cholera

  18. Epidemiology of cholera outbreaks and socio-economic characteristics of the communities in the fishing villages of Uganda: 2011-2015.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Godfrey Bwire

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The communities in fishing villages in the Great Lakes Region of Africa and particularly in Uganda experience recurrent cholera outbreaks that lead to considerable mortality and morbidity. We evaluated cholera epidemiology and population characteristics in the fishing villages of Uganda to better target prevention and control interventions of cholera and contribute to its elimination from those communities.We conducted a prospective study between 2011-15 in fishing villages in Uganda. We collected, reviewed and documented epidemiological and socioeconomic data for 10 cholera outbreaks that occurred in fishing communities located along the African Great Lakes and River Nile in Uganda. These outbreaks caused 1,827 suspected cholera cases and 43 deaths, with a Case-Fatality Ratio (CFR of 2.4%. Though the communities in the fishing villages make up only 5-10% of the Ugandan population, they bear the biggest burden of cholera contributing 58% and 55% of all reported cases and deaths in Uganda during the study period. The CFR was significantly higher among males than females (3.2% vs. 1.3%, p = 0.02. The outbreaks were seasonal with most cases occurring during the months of April-May. Male children under age of 5 years, and 5-9 years had increased risk. Cholera was endemic in some villages with well-defined "hotspots". Practices predisposing communities to cholera outbreaks included: the use of contaminated lake water, poor sanitation and hygiene. Additional factors were: ignorance, illiteracy, and poverty.Cholera outbreaks were a major cause of morbidity and mortality among the fishing communities in Uganda. In addition to improvements in water, sanitation, and hygiene, oral cholera vaccines could play an important role in the prevention and control of these outbreaks, particularly when targeted to high-risk areas and populations. Promotion and facilitation of access to social services including education and reduction in poverty should contribute to

  19. Comparison of Resource and Energy Yield Assessment Procedures 2011-2015: What have we learned and what needs to be done?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mortensen, Niels Gylling; Nielsen, Morten; Ejsing Jørgensen, Hans

    2015-01-01

    studies for medium- to large-scale offshore wind farms in the Irish Sea. A total of 157 submissions were received, 97 land-based and 60 offshore, and all four exercises were analysed and presented previously by DTU Wind Energy. Results are summarised here for each of seven specific steps in the resource...... and energy yield assessment procedure: Site wind observation, long-term extrapolation, vertical extrapolation, horizontal extrapolation, wake modelling, technical losses estimation, uncertainty estimation and calculation. For each step and each wind farm a summary is given of the magnitude of the effects......, the spread of the predictions, the methodologies used, and some general, qualitative conclusions. For one offshore wind farm, Barrow, the predicted yield was found to be 104% of the observed yield, with a spread of predictions of 3%. Based on the results of the four case studies and the statistics...

  20. 75 FR 60767 - Office of the Commissioner; Request for Comments on the Food and Drug Administration Fiscal Year...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... HUMAN SERVICES Food and Drug Administration Office of the Commissioner; Request for Comments on the Food and Drug Administration Fiscal Year 2011-2015 Strategic Priorities Document; Request for Comments... Drug Administration (FDA) is seeking public comment on its draft Strategic Priorities FY 2011-2015. FDA...

  1. Evaluation of Cardiovascular Death, Attributed to CO Exposure in Tehran Megacity in During a Five-Year Period (2010-2014 by Using AirQ Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Majid Kermani

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: Air pollution in large cities is one of the main difficulties that have harmful effects on humans and the environment and cause various diseases including cardiovascular disease. So, present study with aim of Estimation of Cardiovascular Death, Attributed to CO Exposure in Tehran Megacity in during a five-year period (2010-2014 by using AirQ Model were performed. Materials and Methods: This Study was a descriptive–analytic at first, hourly data of pollutants were taken from the environmental protection agency Tehran and Air Quality Control Company and validated according to the WHO guidelines. Required statistical parameters calculated for health effect quantifying and finally processed data converted to input and requirements AirQ model data and health effects quantifying were performed using this model. The final results on deaths due to cardiovascular disease were presented in tables and graphs format. Results: Results showed annual average concentration of CO in Tehran in 2010-2014 are 49, 31, 11,12,21,76 mg/ m3 respectively. In addition, the number of cardiovascular deaths in 2011-2015 is 52,37,29,31,42 respectively Conclusion: According to the results, CO as well as other pollutants can adversely affect human health. Due to high levels of air pollution and its related health consequences, particularly cardiovascular disease, should take appropriate measures to reduce air pollution.

  2. Motor vehicle MPG and market shares report: model year 1985

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hu, P.S.

    1986-02-01

    Sales of automobiles jumped dramatically from 10,211,058 units in model year 1984 to 10,968,515 units in model year 1985, an incease of 7.4%. Light trucks had an even more striking increase in sales, rising 17.2% from the previous model year. The sales-weighted fuel economy for the entire automobile fleet continued to climb in model year 1985, from 26.3 mpg in model year 1984 to 27.0 mpg in this model year. The sales-weighted fuel economies in light trucks have remained relatively constant since model year 1979. The trends of various vehicle characteristics from model year 1978 through 1985 are illustrated. 34 figs., 45 tabs.

  3. Estuarine and marine geology (2011-2015)

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Rao, V.P.; Chakraborty, P.

    and organic carbon (OC) content of the sediments. The light to heavy REE ratios (LREE/HREE) of sediments were lower than in PAAS. The PAAS-normalized rare earths and yttrium (REY; Y inserted between Dy and Ho) patterns of sediments showed middle REE (MREE... and silicate material-dominated in the lower estuary/bay. Low LREE/HREE ratios suggest that very fine-grained sediments were carried away from the estuary because of high-energy conditions. Fractionations of REY (Y/Ho, Sm/Nd, Ce/Ce* and Eu/Eu*) are controlled...

  4. 20 years of ultrasound contrast agent modeling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Faez, T.; Emmer, M.; Kooiman, K.; Versluis, Michel; van der Steen, A.F.W.; de Jong, N.

    2013-01-01

    The merits of ultrasound contrast agents (UCAs) were already known in the 1960s. It was, however, not until the 1990s that UCAs were clinically approved and marketed. In these years, it was realized that the UCAs are not just efficient ultrasound scatterers, but that their main constituent, the

  5. Product modelling: '20 years of stalemate'?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Galle, Per

    1998-01-01

    In a recent special issue of Design Studies Michael Ramscar, John Lee, and Helen Pain level a severe criticism against a field of research known as product modeling; a criticism that would be rather damaging if it were based on cogent arguments. I shall argue in this paper that it is not....

  6. Vermont travel model 2010-2011 (year 3) report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-10-01

    This report is being prepared under Task 1 of the Maintenance, Operation and Evaluation of the VTrans Statewide Transportation Model contract with the Vermont Agency of Transportation (VTrans) in the 2010-2011 year of the contract. The objectiv...

  7. 40 CFR 600.512-01 - Model year report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... listing of both domestically and nondomestically produced car lines as determined in § 600.511 and the... model year report must include the following information: (1) All fuel economy data used in the labeling... economy value for each model type of the manufacturer's product line calculated according to § 600.510(b...

  8. Willingness to use and have sex with men taking HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP): results of online surveys of Australian gay and bisexual men, 2011-2015.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holt, Martin; Lea, Toby; Schmidt, Heather-Marie; Kolstee, Johann; Ellard, Jeanne; Murphy, Dean; Truong, Hong-Ha; de Wit, John

    2017-09-01

    Assess willingness to use HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), support for others using it and willingness to have sex with partners using PrEP among Australian gay and bisexual men (GBM). National, online cross-sectional surveys of Australian GBM were conducted in 2011, 2013 and 2015. Scales measuring support for and willingness to have sex with men using PrEP were developed in 2015 using factor analysis. Trends and associations with key measures were analysed using multivariate logistic regression. During 2011-2015, 3850 surveys were completed by GBM. Willingness to use PrEP among HIV-negative and untested men did not change between 2011 (28.2%) and 2015 (31.7%, p=0.13). In 2015, willingness to use PrEP was independently associated with younger age, having an HIV-positive regular partner, recent condomless anal intercourse with casual male partners (CAIC), more than 10 male sex partners in the previous 6 months, ever having taken postexposure prophylaxis and having fewer concerns about using PrEP. In 2015, 54.5% of GBM supported other GBM taking PrEP and 39% were willing to have sex with men using PrEP. Support for and willingness to have sex with PrEP users were both associated with being HIV-positive, having a university degree and having two or more male partners in the previous 6 months. Willingness to have sex with men on PrEP was also associated with recent CAIC and using party drugs for sex, but was less likely among men who consistently used or had a positive experience using condoms. Interest in and support for using PrEP are concentrated among men who engage in higher risk practices and who know more about living with HIV. This is consistent with the targeting of PrEP in Australia. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

  9. Prices, production, and inventories over the automotive model year

    OpenAIRE

    Adam Copeland; Wendy E. Dunn; George J. Hall

    2005-01-01

    This paper studies the within-model-year pricing and production of new automobiles. Using new monthly data on U.S. transaction prices, we document that for the typical new vehicle, prices typically fall over the model year at a 9.2 percent annual rate. Concurrently, both sales and inventories are hump shaped. To explain these time series, we formulate a market equilibrium model for new automobiles in which inventory and pricing decisions are made simultaneously. On the demand side, we use mic...

  10. Year clustering analysis for modelling olive flowering phenology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oteros, J.; García-Mozo, H.; Hervás-Martínez, C.; Galán, C.

    2013-07-01

    It is now widely accepted that weather conditions occurring several months prior to the onset of flowering have a major influence on various aspects of olive reproductive phenology, including flowering intensity. Given the variable characteristics of the Mediterranean climate, we analyse its influence on the registered variations in olive flowering intensity in southern Spain, and relate them to previous climatic parameters using a year-clustering approach, as a first step towards an olive flowering phenology model adapted to different year categories. Phenological data from Cordoba province (Southern Spain) for a 30-year period (1982-2011) were analysed. Meteorological and phenological data were first subjected to both hierarchical and "K-means" clustering analysis, which yielded four year-categories. For this classification purpose, three different models were tested: (1) discriminant analysis; (2) decision-tree analysis; and (3) neural network analysis. Comparison of the results showed that the neural-networks model was the most effective, classifying four different year categories with clearly distinct weather features. Flowering-intensity models were constructed for each year category using the partial least squares regression method. These category-specific models proved to be more effective than general models. They are better suited to the variability of the Mediterranean climate, due to the different response of plants to the same environmental stimuli depending on the previous weather conditions in any given year. The present detailed analysis of the influence of weather patterns of different years on olive phenology will help us to understand the short-term effects of climate change on olive crop in the Mediterranean area that is highly affected by it.

  11. Regional forecasting with global atmospheric models; Third year report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Crowley, T.J.; North, G.R.; Smith, N.R. [Applied Research Corp., College Station, TX (United States)

    1994-05-01

    This report was prepared by the Applied Research Corporation (ARC), College Station, Texas, under subcontract to Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) as part of a global climate studies task. The task supports site characterization work required for the selection of a potential high-level nuclear waste repository and is part of the Performance Assessment Scientific Support (PASS) Program at PNL. The work is under the overall direction of the Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM), US Department of Energy Headquarters, Washington, DC. The scope of the report is to present the results of the third year`s work on the atmospheric modeling part of the global climate studies task. The development testing of computer models and initial results are discussed. The appendices contain several studies that provide supporting information and guidance to the modeling work and further details on computer model development. Complete documentation of the models, including user information, will be prepared under separate reports and manuals.

  12. Luttinger model the first 50 years and some new directions

    CERN Document Server

    Mattis, Daniel C

    2014-01-01

    The Luttinger Model is the only model of many-fermion physics with legitimate claims to be both exactly and completely solvable. In several respects it plays the same role in many-body theory as does the 2D Ising model in statistical physics. Interest in the Luttinger model has increased steadily ever since its introduction half a century ago. The present volume starts with reprints of the seminal papers in which it was originally introduced and solved, and continues with several contributions setting out the landscape of the principal advances of the last fifty years and of prominent new dire

  13. Challenges in validating model results for first year ice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melsom, Arne; Eastwood, Steinar; Xie, Jiping; Aaboe, Signe; Bertino, Laurent

    2017-04-01

    In order to assess the quality of model results for the distribution of first year ice, a comparison with a product based on observations from satellite-borne instruments has been performed. Such a comparison is not straightforward due to the contrasting algorithms that are used in the model product and the remote sensing product. The implementation of the validation is discussed in light of the differences between this set of products, and validation results are presented. The model product is the daily updated 10-day forecast from the Arctic Monitoring and Forecasting Centre in CMEMS. The forecasts are produced with the assimilative ocean prediction system TOPAZ. Presently, observations of sea ice concentration and sea ice drift are introduced in the assimilation step, but data for sea ice thickness and ice age (or roughness) are not included. The model computes the age of the ice by recording and updating the time passed after ice formation as sea ice grows and deteriorates as it is advected inside the model domain. Ice that is younger than 365 days is classified as first year ice. The fraction of first-year ice is recorded as a tracer in each grid cell. The Ocean and Sea Ice Thematic Assembly Centre in CMEMS redistributes a daily product from the EUMETSAT OSI SAF of gridded sea ice conditions which include "ice type", a representation of the separation of regions between those infested by first year ice, and those infested by multi-year ice. The ice type is parameterized based on data for the gradient ratio GR(19,37) from SSMIS observations, and from the ASCAT backscatter parameter. This product also includes information on ambiguity in the processing of the remote sensing data, and the product's confidence level, which have a strong seasonal dependency.

  14. Model Year 2012 Fuel Economy Guide: EPA Fuel Economy Estimates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2011-11-01

    The Fuel Economy Guide is published by the U.S. Department of Energy as an aid to consumers considering the purchase of a new vehicle. The Guide lists estimates of miles per gallon (mpg) for each vehicle available for the new model year. These estimates are provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in compliance with Federal Law. By using this Guide, consumers can estimate the average yearly fuel cost for any vehicle. The Guide is intended to help consumers compare the fuel economy of similarly sized cars, light duty trucks and special purpose vehicles.

  15. Model Year 2011 Fuel Economy Guide: EPA Fuel Economy Estimates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2010-11-01

    The Fuel Economy Guide is published by the U.S. Department of Energy as an aid to consumers considering the purchase of a new vehicle. The Guide lists estimates of miles per gallon (mpg) for each vehicle available for the new model year. These estimates are provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in compliance with Federal Law. By using this Guide, consumers can estimate the average yearly fuel cost for any vehicle. The Guide is intended to help consumers compare the fuel economy of similarly sized cars, light duty trucks and special purpose vehicles.

  16. Model Year 2013 Fuel Economy Guide: EPA Fuel Economy Estimates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2012-12-01

    The Fuel Economy Guide is published by the U.S. Department of Energy as an aid to consumers considering the purchase of a new vehicle. The Guide lists estimates of miles per gallon (mpg) for each vehicle available for the new model year. These estimates are provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in compliance with Federal Law. By using this Guide, consumers can estimate the average yearly fuel cost for any vehicle. The Guide is intended to help consumers compare the fuel economy of similarly sized cars, light duty trucks and special purpose vehicles.

  17. Model Year 2017 Fuel Economy Guide: EPA Fuel Economy Estimates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2016-11-01

    The Fuel Economy Guide is published by the U.S. Department of Energy as an aid to consumers considering the purchase of a new vehicle. The Guide lists estimates of miles per gallon (mpg) for each vehicle available for the new model year. These estimates are provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in compliance with Federal Law. By using this Guide, consumers can estimate the average yearly fuel cost for any vehicle. The Guide is intended to help consumers compare the fuel economy of similarly sized cars, light duty trucks and special purpose vehicles.

  18. Model Year 2018 Fuel Economy Guide: EPA Fuel Economy Estimates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2017-12-07

    The Fuel Economy Guide is published by the U.S. Department of Energy as an aid to consumers considering the purchase of a new vehicle. The Guide lists estimates of miles per gallon (mpg) for each vehicle available for the new model year. These estimates are provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in compliance with Federal Law. By using this Guide, consumers can estimate the average yearly fuel cost for any vehicle. The Guide is intended to help consumers compare the fuel economy of similarly sized cars, light duty trucks and special purpose vehicles.

  19. 15 years of food-chain modeling in Romania

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gheorghe, R.; Galeriu, D.; Apostoaie, I.; Gheorghe, D.

    2002-01-01

    In the very begin of Chernobyl accident, the high contamination of food, the large variability and the unexpected behavior posed many problems in order to assess the radiological consequences. A simple dynamic food-chain model was built in early May and used for our first assessment on future food contamination and overall impact of Chernobyl in Romania. This quite primitive model show remarkable performance when compared in late 86 and 87 with measurements and our projection of dose was close to a factor two with 10 years later post assessment. After the slowing down of radiological stress we developed a more advanced, process level model of food chain, using not only all literature available but also all local measurements with quality assurance. This model, named LINDOZ, was first internationally applied in the frame of A4 scenario in BIOMOVS 1. and presented in the 1990 Stockholm conference. It was the first time when fallout solubility and foliar absorption were introduced in such a model, explaining very well the dynamics of grass and milk contamination. Upgrades of the model were done concerning deposition and retention and LINDOZ91 was successfully applied in international comparisons VAMP and BIOMOVS 2., including blind tests. Using local expertise and certified data, correlation between probability distribution of deposition and food contamination were used and successfully applied to predict Cs body content distribution in VAMP scenario. Extension to lake-fish was done and tested with excellent results in BIOMOVS 2. In 1994, the model was applied in the first attempt to assess food contamination in Iput region and this old results have been compared recently with those obtained last year by other modelers using updated scenario information. The key points in LINDOZ and its performances in international comparison exercises are presented. In 90'years the German model ECOSYS was spread in Europe and a variant (FDMT) was developed as a food-chain model for

  20. Computable general equilibrium model fiscal year 2013 capability development report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Edwards, Brian Keith [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Rivera, Michael Kelly [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Boero, Riccardo [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2016-05-17

    This report documents progress made on continued developments of the National Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis Center (NISAC) Computable General Equilibrium Model (NCGEM), developed in fiscal year 2012. In fiscal year 2013, NISAC the treatment of the labor market and tests performed with the model to examine the properties of the solutions computed by the model. To examine these, developers conducted a series of 20 simulations for 20 U.S. States. Each of these simulations compared an economic baseline simulation with an alternative simulation that assumed a 20-percent reduction in overall factor productivity in the manufacturing industries of each State. Differences in the simulation results between the baseline and alternative simulations capture the economic impact of the reduction in factor productivity. While not every State is affected in precisely the same way, the reduction in manufacturing industry productivity negatively affects the manufacturing industries in each State to an extent proportional to the reduction in overall factor productivity. Moreover, overall economic activity decreases when manufacturing sector productivity is reduced. Developers ran two additional simulations: (1) a version of the model for the State of Michigan, with manufacturing divided into two sub-industries (automobile and other vehicle manufacturing as one sub-industry and the rest of manufacturing as the other subindustry); and (2) a version of the model for the United States, divided into 30 industries. NISAC conducted these simulations to illustrate the flexibility of industry definitions in NCGEM and to examine the simulation properties of in more detail.

  1. State and Alternative Fuel Provider Fleets - Fleet Compliance Annual Report: Model Year 2015, Fiscal Year 2016

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2016-12-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) regulates covered state government and alternative fuel provider fleets, pursuant to the Energy Policy Act of 1992 (EPAct), as amended. Covered fleets may meet their EPAct requirements through one of two compliance methods: Standard Compliance or Alternative Compliance. For model year (MY) 2015, the compliance rate with this program for the more than 3011 reporting fleets was 100%. More than 294 fleets used Standard Compliance and exceeded their aggregate MY 2015 acquisition requirements by 8% through acquisitions alone. The seven covered fleets that used Alternative Compliance exceeded their aggregate MY 2015 petroleum use reduction requirements by 46%.

  2. Model Year 2014 Fuel Economy Guide: EPA Fuel Economy Estimates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2013-12-01

    The Fuel Economy Guide is published by the U.S. Department of Energy as an aid to consumers considering the purchase of a new vehicle. The Guide lists estimates of miles per gallon (mpg) for each vehicle available for the new model year. These estimates are provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in compliance with Federal Law. By using this Guide, consumers can estimate the average yearly fuel cost for any vehicle. The Guide is intended to help consumers compare the fuel economy of similarly sized cars, light duty trucks and special purpose vehicles. The vehicles listed have been divided into three classes of cars, three classes of light duty trucks, and three classes of special purpose vehicles.

  3. Model Year 2010 Fuel Economy Guide: EPA Fuel Economy Estimates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2009-10-14

    The Fuel Economy Guide is published by the U.S. Department of Energy as an aid to consumers considering the purchase of a new vehicle. The Guide lists estimates of miles per gallon (mpg) for each vehicle available for the new model year. These estimates are provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in compliance with Federal Law. By using this Guide, consumers can estimate the average yearly fuel cost for any vehicle. The Guide is intended to help consumers compare the fuel economy of similarly sized cars, light duty trucks and special purpose vehicles. The vehicles listed have been divided into three classes of cars, three classes of light duty trucks, and three classes of special purpose vehicles.

  4. Model Year 2016 Fuel Economy Guide: EPA Fuel Economy Estimates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2015-11-01

    The Fuel Economy Guide is published by the U.S. Department of Energy as an aid to consumers considering the purchase of a new vehicle. The Guide lists estimates of miles per gallon (mpg) for each vehicle available for the new model year. These estimates are provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in compliance with Federal Law. By using this Guide, consumers can estimate the average yearly fuel cost for any vehicle. The Guide is intended to help consumers compare the fuel economy of similarly sized cars, light duty trucks and special purpose vehicles. The vehicles listed have been divided into three classes of cars, three classes of light duty trucks, and three classes of special purpose vehicles.

  5. Model Year 2015 Fuel Economy Guide: EPA Fuel Economy Estimates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2014-12-01

    The Fuel Economy Guide is published by the U.S. Department of Energy as an aid to consumers considering the purchase of a new vehicle. The Guide lists estimates of miles per gallon (mpg) for each vehicle available for the new model year. These estimates are provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in compliance with Federal Law. By using this Guide, consumers can estimate the average yearly fuel cost for any vehicle. The Guide is intended to help consumers compare the fuel economy of similarly sized cars, light duty trucks and special purpose vehicles. The vehicles listed have been divided into three classes of cars, three classes of light duty trucks, and three classes of special purpose vehicles.

  6. Model Year 2005 Fuel Economy Guide: EPA Fuel Economy Estimates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2004-11-01

    The Fuel Economy Guide is published by the U.S. Department of Energy as an aid to consumers considering the purchase of a new vehicle. The Guide lists estimates of miles per gallon (mpg) for each vehicle available for the new model year. These estimates are provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in compliance with Federal Law. By using this Guide, consumers can estimate the average yearly fuel cost for any vehicle. The Guide is intended to help consumers compare the fuel economy of similarly sized cars, light duty trucks and special purpose vehicles. The vehicles listed have been divided into three classes of cars, three classes of light duty trucks, and three classes of special purpose vehicles.

  7. Model Year 2006 Fuel Economy Guide: EPA Fuel Economy Estimates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2005-11-01

    The Fuel Economy Guide is published by the U.S. Department of Energy as an aid to consumers considering the purchase of a new vehicle. The Guide lists estimates of miles per gallon (mpg) for each vehicle available for the new model year. These estimates are provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in compliance with Federal Law. By using this Guide, consumers can estimate the average yearly fuel cost for any vehicle. The Guide is intended to help consumers compare the fuel economy of similarly sized cars, light duty trucks and special purpose vehicles. The vehicles listed have been divided into three classes of cars, three classes of light duty trucks, and three classes of special purpose vehicles.

  8. Model Year 2009 Fuel Economy Guide: EPA Fuel Economy Estimates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2008-10-01

    The Fuel Economy Guide is published by the U.S. Department of Energy as an aid to consumers considering the purchase of a new vehicle. The Guide lists estimates of miles per gallon (mpg) for each vehicle available for the new model year. These estimates are provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in compliance with Federal Law. By using this Guide, consumers can estimate the average yearly fuel cost for any vehicle. The Guide is intended to help consumers compare the fuel economy of similarly sized cars, light duty trucks and special purpose vehicles. The vehicles listed have been divided into three classes of cars, three classes of light duty trucks, and three classes of special purpose vehicles.

  9. Model Year 2008 Fuel Economy Guide: EPA Fuel Economy Estimates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2007-10-01

    The Fuel Economy Guide is published by the U.S. Department of Energy as an aid to consumers considering the purchase of a new vehicle. The Guide lists estimates of miles per gallon (mpg) for each vehicle available for the new model year. These estimates are provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in compliance with Federal Law. By using this Guide, consumers can estimate the average yearly fuel cost for any vehicle. The Guide is intended to help consumers compare the fuel economy of similarly sized cars, light duty trucks and special purpose vehicles. The vehicles listed have been divided into three classes of cars, three classes of light duty trucks, and three classes of special purpose vehicles.

  10. Model Year 2007 Fuel Economy Guide: EPA Fuel Economy Estimates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2007-10-01

    The Fuel Economy Guide is published by the U.S. Department of Energy as an aid to consumers considering the purchase of a new vehicle. The Guide lists estimates of miles per gallon (mpg) for each vehicle available for the new model year. These estimates are provided by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency in compliance with Federal Law. By using this Guide, consumers can estimate the average yearly fuel cost for any vehicle. The Guide is intended to help consumers compare the fuel economy of similarly sized cars, light duty trucks and special purpose vehicles. The vehicles listed have been divided into three classes of cars, three classes of light duty trucks, and three classes of special purpose vehicles.

  11. Hydra, a fruitful model system for 270 years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galliot, Brigitte

    2012-01-01

    The discovery of Hydra regeneration by Abraham Trembley in 1744 promoted much scientific curiosity thanks to his clever design of experimental strategies away from the natural environment. Since then, this little freshwater cnidarian polyp flourished as a potent and fruitful model system. Here, we review some general biological questions that benefitted from Hydra research, such as the nature of embryogenesis, neurogenesis, induction by organizers, sex reversal, symbiosis, aging, feeding behavior, light regulation, multipotency of somatic stem cells, temperature-induced cell death, neuronal transdifferentiation, to cite only a few. To understand how phenotypes arise, theoricists also chose Hydra to model patterning and morphogenetic events, providing helpful concepts such as reaction-diffusion, positional information, and autocatalysis combined with lateral inhibition. Indeed, throughout these past 270 years, scientists used transplantation and grafting experiments, together with tissue, cell and molecular labelings, as well as biochemical procedures, in order to establish the solid foundations of cell and developmental biology. Nowadays, thanks to transgenic, genomic and proteomic tools, Hydra remains a promising model for these fields, but also for addressing novel questions such as evolutionary mechanisms, maintenance of dynamic homeostasis, regulation of stemness, functions of autophagy, cell death, stress response, innate immunity, bioactive compounds in ecosystems, ecotoxicant sensing and science communication.

  12. Multi-year predictability in a coupled general circulation model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Power, Scott; Colman, Rob [Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre, Melbourne, VIC (Australia)

    2006-02-01

    Multi-year to decadal variability in a 100-year integration of a BMRC coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (CGCM) is examined. The fractional contribution made by the decadal component generally increases with depth and latitude away from surface waters in the equatorial Indo-Pacific Ocean. The relative importance of decadal variability is enhanced in off-equatorial ''wings'' in the subtropical eastern Pacific. The model and observations exhibit ''ENSO-like'' decadal patterns. Analytic results are derived, which show that the patterns can, in theory, occur in the absence of any predictability beyond ENSO time-scales. In practice, however, modification to this stochastic view is needed to account for robust differences between ENSO-like decadal patterns and their interannual counterparts. An analysis of variability in the CGCM, a wind-forced shallow water model, and a simple mixed layer model together with existing and new theoretical results are used to improve upon this stochastic paradigm and to provide a new theory for the origin of decadal ENSO-like patterns like the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation. In this theory, ENSO-driven wind-stress variability forces internal equatorially-trapped Kelvin waves that propagate towards the eastern boundary. Kelvin waves can excite reflected internal westward propagating equatorially-trapped Rossby waves (RWs) and coastally-trapped waves (CTWs). CTWs have no impact on the off-equatorial sub-surface ocean outside the coastal wave guide, whereas the RWs do. If the frequency of the incident wave is too high, then only CTWs are excited. At lower frequencies, both CTWs and RWs can be excited. The lower the frequency, the greater the fraction of energy transmitted to RWs. This lowers the characteristic frequency of variability off the equator relative to its equatorial counterpart. Both the eastern boundary interactions and the accumulation of

  13. Model year 2010 Ford Fusion Level-1 testing report.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rask, E.; Bocci, D.; Duoba, M.; Lohse-Busch, H.; Energy Systems

    2010-11-23

    As a part of the US Department of Energy's Advanced Vehicle Testing Activity (AVTA), a model year 2010 Ford Fusion was procured by eTec (Phoenix, AZ) and sent to ANL's Advanced Powertrain Research Facility for the purposes of vehicle-level testing in support of the Advanced Vehicle Testing Activity. Data was acquired during testing using non-intrusive sensors, vehicle network information, and facilities equipment (emissions and dynamometer). Standard drive cycles, performance cycles, steady-state cycles, and A/C usage cycles were conducted. Much of this data is openly available for download in ANL's Downloadable Dynamometer Database. The major results are shown in this report. Given the benchmark nature of this assessment, the majority of the testing was done over standard regulatory cycles and sought to obtain a general overview of how the vehicle performs. These cycles include the US FTP cycle (Urban) and Highway Fuel Economy Test cycle as well as the US06, a more aggressive supplemental regulatory cycle. Data collection for this testing was kept at a fairly high level and includes emissions and fuel measurements from an exhaust emissions bench, high-voltage and accessory current/voltage from a DC power analyzer, and CAN bus data such as engine speed, engine load, and electric machine operation. The following sections will seek to explain some of the basic operating characteristics of the MY2010 Fusion and provide insight into unique features of its operation and design.

  14. Dark web: Černý trh na internetu a jeho vliv na české národní hospodářství v letech 2011-2015

    OpenAIRE

    Nedvědová, Barbora

    2016-01-01

    The main goal of this thesis is to analyse the influence of the Dark Web on the national economy of the Czech Republic between the years 2012 and 2014. The term 'the Dark Web' and basic elements, which are related to the internet black market, are analysed in the theoretical part of the thesis. The practical part of the thesis contains the estimation of the impact of the Dark Web on the national economy, particularly on national accounts, and other macroeconomic indicators such as GDP, tax co...

  15. Serotyping and Genetic Characterization of Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease (HFMD)-Associated Enteroviruses of No-EV71 and Non-CVA16 Circulating in Fujian, China, 2011-2015.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weng, Yuwei; Chen, Wei; He, Wenxiang; Huang, Meng; Zhu, Ying; Yan, Yansheng

    2017-05-25

    BACKGROUND Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is a common contagious disease in infants; it is caused by multiple serotypes of human enterovirus (EV), which belongs to the enterovirus genus of the picornavirus family. According to sentinel surveillance, infection with EVs other than EV71 and CVA 16 have become increasingly common in recent years among HFMD patients, posing new challenges for HFMD control. This study aimed to explore the spectrum of serotypes in the other EVs (non-EV71 and non-CVA16) in Fujian province in southeastern China. MATERIAL AND METHODS We investigated 562 samples from EVs-infected HFMD patients with diagnosis confirmed by real-time RT-PCR with other EVs infection between 2011 and 2015. Nucleotide acid detection and the serotyping of the enteroviruses were also performed. The complete VP1 gene was amplified and sequenced. VP1-based phylogenetic analyses of CVA6, CVA10, CVA4, and CVA2 were also performed. RESULTS Among the samples, 22 serotypes of the other EVs, which belong to 4 species of human enterovirus A-D, were identified. Of the 22 serotypes, CVA6 (57.8%) and CVA10 (21.0%) were most common, followed by CVA4 (6.8%) and CVA2 (2.7%). The other 18 serotypes accounted for 11.7% of samples, none of which exceeded 2%. Among 47 (8.4%) samples from patients with severe HFMD, 10 serotypes were identified and most samples belonged to CVA6 (20/47), followed by CVA10 (11/47). Entire VP1 comparison revealed that overall genetic identities were 96.7%, 96.3%, 94.4%, and 94.9% among strains within CVA6, CVA10, CVA4, and CVA2, respectively. CONCLUSIONS VP1-based phylogenetic analysis for the 4 predominant serotypes indicated various clades or sub-clades, which suggests the complex transmissions of other enteroviruses in Fujian.

  16. Cupola modeling research: Phase 2 (Year one), Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1991-11-20

    Objective was to develop a mathematical model of the cupola furnace (cast iron production) in on-line and off-line process control and optimization. In Phase I, the general structure of the heat transfer, fluid flow, and chemical models were laid out, providing reasonable descriptions of cupola behavior with a one-dimensional representation. Work was also initiated on a two-dimensional model. Phase II was focused on perfecting the one-dimensional model. The contributions include these from MIT, Michigan University, and GM.

  17. Computable general equilibrium model fiscal year 2014 capability development report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Edwards, Brian Keith [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Boero, Riccardo [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2016-05-11

    This report provides an overview of the development of the NISAC CGE economic modeling capability since 2012. This capability enhances NISAC's economic modeling and analysis capabilities to answer a broader set of questions than possible with previous economic analysis capability. In particular, CGE modeling captures how the different sectors of the economy, for example, households, businesses, government, etc., interact to allocate resources in an economy and this approach captures these interactions when it is used to estimate the economic impacts of the kinds of events NISAC often analyzes.

  18. FMCSA safety program effectiveness measurement: intervention model fiscal year 2009.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-04-01

    The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA), in cooperation with the researcher, has developed an analytic model to measure the effectiveness of roadside inspections and traffic enforcements in terms of crashes avoided, injuries avoided, ...

  19. Effect of Using Extreme Years in Hydrologic Model Calibration Performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goktas, R. K.; Tezel, U.; Kargi, P. G.; Ayvaz, T.; Tezyapar, I.; Mesta, B.; Kentel, E.

    2017-12-01

    Hydrological models are useful in predicting and developing management strategies for controlling the system behaviour. Specifically they can be used for evaluating streamflow at ungaged catchments, effect of climate change, best management practices on water resources, or identification of pollution sources in a watershed. This study is a part of a TUBITAK project named "Development of a geographical information system based decision-making tool for water quality management of Ergene Watershed using pollutant fingerprints". Within the scope of this project, first water resources in Ergene Watershed is studied. Streamgages found in the basin are identified and daily streamflow measurements are obtained from State Hydraulic Works of Turkey. Streamflow data is analysed using box-whisker plots, hydrographs and flow-duration curves focusing on identification of extreme periods, dry or wet. Then a hydrological model is developed for Ergene Watershed using HEC-HMS in the Watershed Modeling System (WMS) environment. The model is calibrated for various time periods including dry and wet ones and the performance of calibration is evaluated using Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE), correlation coefficient, percent bias (PBIAS) and root mean square error. It is observed that calibration period affects the model performance, and the main purpose of the development of the hydrological model should guide calibration period selection. Acknowledgement: This study is funded by The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TUBITAK) under Project Number 115Y064.

  20. An Innovative Learning Model for Computation in First Year Mathematics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tonkes, E. J.; Loch, B. I.; Stace, A. W.

    2005-01-01

    MATLAB is a sophisticated software tool for numerical analysis and visualization. The University of Queensland has adopted Matlab as its official teaching package across large first year mathematics courses. In the past, the package has met severe resistance from students who have not appreciated their computational experience. Several main…

  1. Two-Year Apprenticeships--A Successful Model of Training?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kammermann, Marlise; Stalder, Barbara E.; Hattich, Achim

    2011-01-01

    Educational policy is asked to support young people in their successful transition from education to employment. In Switzerland, a two-year apprenticeship with Federal VET Certificate was established in 2002 aimed at increasing the employability of low-achieving school leavers. It is a low-threshold VET programme offering standardised vocational…

  2. Estimate of Bariatric Surgery Numbers, 2011-2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... to Care Toolkit EHB Access Toolkit Estimate of Bariatric Surgery Numbers, 2011-2016 Published July 2016 2011 2012 ... Search Treat your Obesity | Patient Learning Center Bariatric Surgery FAQs Bariatric Surgery Procedures BMI Calculator Childhood and Adolescent Obesity ...

  3. 2011-2015 USAID Education Strategy Progress Report

    Science.gov (United States)

    US Agency for International Development, 2015

    2015-01-01

    In 2011, the USAID Education Strategy set forth an ambitious agenda to help solve one of the most pressing challenges facing developing countries: the lack of access to quality education for children and youth. Through this strategy, with a focus on measurable outcomes and ambitious targets, USAID transformed the conversation in the sector from…

  4. Education: Opportunity through Learning. USAID Education Strategy, 2011-2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    US Agency for International Development, 2011

    2011-01-01

    In late 2010, the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) Administrator Rajiv Shah commissioned a new Agency-wide Education Strategy to ensure that USAID's global education investments would be informed by recent Presidential policy guidance; grounded in the most current evidence-based analysis of educational effectiveness; and aimed at…

  5. United States Air Force Academy: A Bibliography 2011-2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-11-23

    http://files.eric.ed.gov/fulltext/EJ1080248.pdf>. 11. Long, Sheri Spaine. "The Unexpected Spanish for Specific Purposes Professor: A Tale of Two...Waldvogel, Dieter Alexander. "Vocabulary Learning Strategies among Adult Learners of Spanish as a Foreign Language." PhD. Austin, TX: University of...30) <http://purl.fdlp.gov/GPO/gpo63711>. 145. Kiley, Dan, and Jane Amidon. Dan Kiley: The Complete Works of America’s Master Landscape Architect

  6. Projection of greenhouse gases and air pollutants 2011-2015

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Verdonk, M.; Daniels, B.

    2011-05-01

    This report outlines the expected greenhouse gas emissions (mainly CO2 but also methane and nitrous oxide) and air pollutants in the period 2011 up to and including 2015. Attention is paid to whether or not the Netherlands will comply with the mandatory European and international regulations. [nl

  7. Electric driving accelerated. Action Plan 2011-2015. Annex 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2011-10-01

    The Dutch Action Plan for Electric Driving gives form and substance to the ambition of the Dutch government to accelerate the market introduction of electric cars in the Netherlands. This plan is not only focused on the electric passenger car. To promote the electrification of transport, also electric garbage trucks, buses, scooters and possibly pleasure boats are included in the plan. [nl

  8. Physical and monetary assessment of coal 2011-2015

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guggemos, Fabien; Meilhac, Christophe; Misak, Evelyne; Riedinger, Nicolas; Moreau, Sylvain

    2018-01-01

    After having presented the various coal products (primary coal, derived coals, coal derived gases), this report analyses to which prices coal is traded on the international market, in imports and exports, and for users. It analyses how France supplies itself with coal (through primary production, international trade or stocks). It analyses coal production and consumption in the foundry sector (coking plants, blast furnaces). It analyses what represents coal consumption and how it is distributed among sectors (outside the foundry sector). Key figures are provided

  9. The early years of string theory: The dual resonance model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ramond, P.

    1987-10-01

    This paper reviews the past quantum mechanical history of the dual resonance model which is an early string theory. The content of this paper is listed as follows: historical review, the Veneziano amplitude, the operator formalism, the ghost story, and the string story

  10. 40 CFR 600.512-86 - Model year report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ...) A listing of both domestically and nondomestically produced car lines as determined in § 600.511 and... must include the following information: (1) All fuel economy data used in the labeling calculations and... fuel economy value for each model type of the manufacturer's product line calculated according to § 600...

  11. Year-Round Schools: The Star of the Sea Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piper, Paul S.

    1994-01-01

    Star of the Sea School, located in the Wai'alae-kahala area of Honolulu, implemented year-round schooling (YRS) in 1991. This publication describes the history of YRS, the status of YRS in the Pacific region, and outcomes of the Star of the Sea's program. The private Catholic K-8 school adheres to a 45-10 plan, which includes 180 regular school…

  12. The "Biopsychosocial Model": 40 years of application in Psychiatry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papadimitriou, G

    2017-01-01

    In 1977, the American pathologist and psychiatrist George Engel (1913-1999) published in the Journal Science his paper "TheIn 1977, the American pathologist and psychiatrist George Engel (1913-1999) published in the Journal Science his paper "Theneed for a new medical model: A challenge for biomedicine", introducing the term Biopsychosocial Model. This model basedon the results of Engel's studies in ulcerative colitis, depression and psychogenic pain, constituted a challenge for biomedicineand the biomedical model. The basic principles of the model included the biological, psychological and social dimensions of the person's life and theperception that the person suffers as a whole and not as isolated organs. The doctor should use a holistic approach regardingillness and should consider his/her relation with the patient socially equal. The personality and the emotional reserves of thepatient, as well as the particular environmental conditions in which the person lives in should be taken into account. There is no doubt that the biopsychosocial model has established a more empathetic and compassionate approach in medical practice. Already since 1936, the general adaptation syndrome had been proposed by the Austrian-Canadian endocrinologist HansSeley (1907-1982), who emphasized that psychological stressful factors may have injurious consequences on health, while theresponse systems to stress may be dysregulated not only by genetic factors, but also from experiences and stressful life events,as well as by harmful behaviors such as smoking, alcohol consumption and lack of physical exercise. Psychosocial factors may co-determine the patient's vulnerability and the illness's severity and course. The biopsychosocialmodel consider the interactions with genetic susceptibility, personality, stressful events and, generally, with the patient's socialcontext. Environmental factors increase the probability of the clinical expression of a mental disorder, play a role in the time

  13. Aggressive symbolic model identification in 13 year-old youths

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miguel A. Vidal

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Although a great amount of research has been carried out about the effects of media on the audience, few studies deal with the process that determines why the viewers identify with a specific symbolic model instead of choosing any other. In this descriptive study we try to highlight similarity identification, focusing on aggressive model identification. A sample of 203 participants, both male and female, aged 13, and with a high socioeconomic level viewed different films sequences. They were asked to answer to a questionnaire both before and after watching the clip. This questionnaire included an adjective list about the traits that best defined themselves, their favorite characters, and characters they didn’t like. Results show a clear correspondence between the participants’ self-perceived traits and those perceived for the main characters in the film. Self-perceived traits were opposed to those perceived in the main characters opponents.

  14. Modelling loans and deposits during electoral years i n Romania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicolae - Marius JULA

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper analyzes the effect of electoral years on loans and deposits for population in Romania. Using monthly data regarding the total loans and deposits, we identify the significance of the electoral timing on population´s behavior regarding financial decisions. We estimate that there are small changes in population´s affinity for increase in the indebtedness or for savings. We use dummy variables for electoral periods, and when these are econometrically significant there is an evidence of the influence of the electoral timings in population´s financial decisions.

  15. Projection of greenhouse gases and air pollutants 2011-2015; Raming van broeikasgassen en luchtverontreinigende stoffen 2011-2015

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Verdonk, M. [Planbureau voor de Leefomgeving PBL, Den Haag (Netherlands); Daniels, B. [ECN Beleidsstudies, Petten (NL)

    2011-05-15

    This report outlines the expected greenhouse gas emissions (mainly CO2 but also methane and nitrous oxide) and air pollutants in the period 2011 up to and including 2015. Attention is paid to whether or not the Netherlands will comply with the mandatory European and international regulations. [Dutch] Er wordt in beeld gebracht wat de te verwachten uitstoot van broeikasgassen (vooral CO2, maar bijvoorbeeld ook methaan en lachgas) en luchtverontreinigende stoffen zal zijn in de periode 2011 tot en met 2015. Gekeken is of Nederland in die periode zal voldoen aan de verplichte Europese en internationale regels.

  16. One thousand years of fires: Integrating proxy and model data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kehrwald, Natalie; Aleman, Julie C.; Coughlan, Michael; Courtney Mustaphi, Colin J.; Githumbi, Esther N.; Magi, Brian I.; Marlon, Jennifer R.; Power, Mitchell J.

    2016-01-01

    The current fires raging across Indonesia are emitting more carbon than the annual fossil fuel emissions of Germany or Japan, and the fires are still consuming vast tracts of rainforest and peatlands. The National Interagency Fire Center (www.nifc.gov) notes that 2015 is one worst fire years on record in the U.S., where more than 9 million acres burned -- equivalent to the combined size of Massachusetts and New Jersey. The U.S. and Indonesian fires have already displaced tens of thousands of people, and their impacts on ecosystems are still unclear. In the case of Indonesia, the burning peat is destroying much of the existing soil, with unknown implications for the type of vegetation regrowth. Such large fires result from a combination of fire management practices, increasing anthropogenic land use, and a changing climate.

  17. GEM1: First-year modeling and IT activities for the Global Earthquake Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, G.; Giardini, D.; Wiemer, S.

    2009-04-01

    GEM is a public-private partnership initiated by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) to build an independent standard for modeling and communicating earthquake risk worldwide. GEM is aimed at providing authoritative, open information about seismic risk and decision tools to support mitigation. GEM will also raise risk awareness and help post-disaster economic development, with the ultimate goal of reducing the toll of future earthquakes. GEM will provide a unified set of seismic hazard, risk, and loss modeling tools based on a common global IT infrastructure and consensus standards. These tools, systems, and standards will be developed in partnership with organizations around the world, with coordination by the GEM Secretariat and its Secretary General. GEM partners will develop a variety of global components, including a unified earthquake catalog, fault database, and ground motion prediction equations. To ensure broad representation and community acceptance, GEM will include local knowledge in all modeling activities, incorporate existing detailed models where possible, and independently test all resulting tools and models. When completed in five years, GEM will have a versatile, penly accessible modeling environment that can be updated as necessary, and will provide the global standard for seismic hazard, risk, and loss models to government ministers, scientists and engineers, financial institutions, and the public worldwide. GEM is now underway with key support provided by private sponsors (Munich Reinsurance Company, Zurich Financial Services, AIR Worldwide Corporation, and Willis Group Holdings); countries including Belgium, Germany, Italy, Singapore, Switzerland, and Turkey; and groups such as the European Commission. The GEM Secretariat has been selected by the OECD and will be hosted at the Eucentre at the University of Pavia in Italy; the Secretariat is now formalizing the creation of the GEM Foundation. Some of GEM's global

  18. FMCSA safety program effectiveness measurement : Intervention Model in fiscal year 2007

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-04-01

    This report presents results from FMCSAs Roadside Intervention Model for fiscal year 2007. The model estimates the number of crashes avoided, as well as injuries avoided and lives saved, as a result of the Agencys roadside inspection program. T...

  19. Motor vehicle mpg and market shares report: first six months of model year 1984

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hu, P.S.; Greene, D.L.; Till, L.E.

    1984-10-01

    This issue of the publication reports the sales, market shares, estimated sales-weighted fuel economies, and other estimated sales-weighted vehicle characteristics of automobiles and light trucks for the first six months of model year 1984 and for the previous five model years. Comparisons and observations are made on the trends in these vehicles from one model year to the next. An improved methodology is used to allocate the yearly mpg changes among eight components, rather than the four reported in the previous reports. Sales of automobiles showed an increase of 21.8% from the first half of model year 1983. An even more striking increase was observed in the sales of light trucks: 42.2% from the first half of model year 1983. The first six months of model year 1984 experienced a gain of 0.21 mpg in sales-weighted automobile fuel economy. In contrast, light trucks experienced a loss of 0.83 mpg in fuel economy, from 20.52 mpg in model year 1983 to 19.69 mpg in the first half of model year 1984.

  20. 49 CFR 536.6 - Treatment of credits earned prior to model year 2011.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ...) NATIONAL HIGHWAY TRAFFIC SAFETY ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION TRANSFER AND TRADING OF FUEL... compliance category before model year 2008 may be applied by the manufacturer that earned them to carryback... during and after model year 2008 may be applied by the manufacturer that earned them to carryback plans...

  1. Understanding Weight Management Perceptions in First-Year College Students Using the Health Belief Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das, Bhibha M.; Evans, Ellen M.

    2014-01-01

    Objective: To examine weight management barriers, using the Health Belief Model, in first-year college students. Participants: First-year college students (n = 45), with data collected in April, May, and November 2013. Methods: Nominal group technique sessions (n = 8) were conducted. Results: First-year students recognize benefits to weight…

  2. A Year-Long Comparison of GPS TEC and Global Ionosphere-Thermosphere Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perlongo, N. J.; Ridley, A. J.; Cnossen, I.; Wu, C.

    2018-02-01

    The prevalence of GPS total electron content (TEC) observations has provided an opportunity for extensive global ionosphere-thermosphere model validation efforts. This study presents a year-long data-model comparison using the Global Ionosphere-Thermosphere Model (GITM) and the Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIE-GCM). For the entire year of 2010, each model was run and compared to GPS TEC observations. The results were binned according to season, latitude, local time, and magnetic local time. GITM was found to overestimate the TEC everywhere, except on the midlatitude nightside, due to high O/N2 ratios. TIE-GCM produced much less TEC and had lower O/N2 ratios and neutral wind speeds. Seasonal and regional biases in the models are discussed along with ideas for model improvements and further validation efforts.

  3. Adolescents Exiting Homelessness Over Two Years: The Risk Amplification and Abatement Model

    OpenAIRE

    Milburn, Norweeta G.; Rice, Eric; Rotheram-Borus, Mary Jane; Mallett, Shelley; Rosenthal, Doreen; Batterham, Phillip; May, Susanne J.; Witkin, Andrea; Duan, Naihua

    2009-01-01

    The Risk Amplification and Abatement Model (RAAM), demonstrates that negative contact with socializing agents amplify risk, while positive contact abates risk for homeless adolescents. To test this model, the likelihood of exiting homelessness and returning to familial housing at 2 years and stably exiting over time are examined with longitudinal data collected from 183 newly homeless adolescents followed over 2 years in Los Angeles, CA. In support of RAAM, unadjusted odds of exiting at 2 yea...

  4. Modelled and observed mass balance of Rikha Samba Glacier, Nepal, Central Himalaya

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gurung, T. R.; Kayastha, R. B.; Fujita, K.; Sinisalo, A. K.; Stumm, D.; Joshi, S.; Litt, M.

    2016-12-01

    Glacier mass balance variability has an implication for the regional water resources and it helps to understand the response of glacier to climate change in the Himalayan region. Several mass balance studies have been started in the Himalayan region since 1970s, but they are characterized by frequent temporal gaps and a poor spatial representatively. This study aims at bridging the temporal gaps in a long term mass balance series of the Rikha Samba glacier (5383 - 6475 m a.s.l.), a benchmark glacier located in the Hidden Valley, Mustang, Nepal. The ERA Interim reanalysis data for the period 2011-2015 is calibrated with the observed meteorological variables from an AWS installed near the glacier terminus. We apply an energy mass balance model, validated with the available in-situ measurements for the years 1998 and 2011-2015. The results show that the glacier is shrinking at a moderate negative mass balance rate for the period 1995 to 2015 and the high altitude location of Rikha Samba also prevents a bigger mass loss compared to other small Himalayan glaciers. Precipitation from July to January and the mean air temperature from June to October are the most influential climatic parameters of the annual mass balance variability of Rikha Samba glacier.

  5. A Predictive Model of Student Loan Default at a Two-Year Community College

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Chanda Denea

    2015-01-01

    This study explored whether a predictive model of student loan default could be developed with data from an institution's three-year cohort default rate report. The study used borrower data provided by a large two-year community college. Independent variables under investigation included total undergraduate Stafford student loan debt, total number…

  6. Models for Information Assurance Education and Outreach: A Report on Year 1 Implementation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jianjun

    2013-01-01

    On September 22, 2012, NSF announced its decision to fund a three-year project, "Models for Information Assurance Education and Outreach" (MIAEO). In the first year of grant operation, MIAEO has invited 18 high school students, two K-12 teachers, and two CSUB student assistants to conduct research explorations in the fields of…

  7. Predictors and Characteristics of Erikson's Life Cycle Model Among Men: A 32-Year Longitudinal Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westermeyer, Jerry F.

    2004-01-01

    To assess Erikson's life cycle model, 86 men, initially selected for health, were prospectively studied at age 21, and reassessed 32 years later at age 53. Using the Vaillant and Milofsky (1980) modification of Erikson's model, 48 men (56%) achieved generativity, an advanced developmental stage, at follow-up. Results generally support Erikson's…

  8. An Integrated Visualization and Basic Molecular Modeling Laboratory for First-Year Undergraduate Medicinal Chemistry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayes, Joseph M.

    2014-01-01

    A 3D model visualization and basic molecular modeling laboratory suitable for first-year undergraduates studying introductory medicinal chemistry is presented. The 2 h practical is embedded within a series of lectures on drug design, target-drug interactions, enzymes, receptors, nucleic acids, and basic pharmacokinetics. Serving as a teaching aid…

  9. Mathematical Modelling in the Junior Secondary Years: An Approach Incorporating Mathematical Technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lowe, James; Carter, Merilyn; Cooper, Tom

    2018-01-01

    Mathematical models are conceptual processes that use mathematics to describe, explain, and/or predict the behaviour of complex systems. This article is written for teachers of mathematics in the junior secondary years (including out-of-field teachers of mathematics) who may be unfamiliar with mathematical modelling, to explain the steps involved…

  10. Adolescents Exiting Homelessness over Two Years: The Risk Amplification and Abatement Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milburn, Norweeta G.; Rice, Eric; Rotheram-Borus, Mary Jane; Mallett, Shelley; Rosenthal, Doreen; Batterham, Phillip; May, Susanne J.; Witkin, Andrea; Duan, Naihua

    2009-01-01

    The Risk Amplification and Abatement Model (RAAM) demonstrates that negative contact with socializing agents amplify risk, while positive contact abates risk for homeless adolescents. To test this model, the likelihood of exiting homelessness and returning to familial housing at 2 years and stably exiting over time are examined with longitudinal…

  11. Nano-Continuum Modeling of a Nuclear Glass Specimen Altered for 25 Years

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Steefel, Carl

    2014-01-06

    The purpose of this contribution is to report on preliminary nano-continuum scale modeling of nuclear waste glass corrosion. The focus of the modeling is an experiment involving a French glass SON68 specimen leached for 25 years in a granitic environment. In this report, we focus on capturing the nano-scale concentration profiles. We use a high resolution continuum model with a constant grid spacing of 1 nanometer to investigate the glass corrosion mechanisms.

  12. Development of NIR calibration models to assess year-to-year variation in total non-structural carbohydrates in grasses using PLSR

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shetty, Nisha; Gislum, René; Jensen, Anne Mette Dahl

    2012-01-01

    Near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy was used in combination with chemometrics to quantify total nonstructural carbohydrates (TNC) in grass samples in order to overcome year-to-year variation. A total of 1103 above-ground plant and root samples were collected from different field and pot experiments...... and with various experimental designs in the period from 2001 to 2005. A calibration model was developed using partial least squares regression (PLSR). The calibration model on a large data set spanning five years demonstrated that quantification of TNC using NIR spectroscopy was possible with an acceptable low...... to improve model performance, but still it was not possible to avoid year-to-year variation using iPLS, however iPLS simplified the interpretation of the regression model. The best option was to expand the database with samples from a new year, to include these samples in the calibration model and to apply...

  13. A 10-year prognostic model for patients with suspected angina attending a chest pain clinic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sekhri, Neha; Perel, Pablo; Clayton, Tim; Feder, Gene S; Hemingway, Harry; Timmis, Adam

    2016-06-01

    Diagnostic models used in the management of suspected angina provide no explicit information about prognosis. We present a new prognostic model of 10-year coronary mortality in patients presenting for the first time with suspected angina to complement the Diamond-Forrester diagnostic model of disease probability. A multicentre cohort of 8762 patients with suspected angina was followed up for a median of 10 years during which 233 coronary deaths were observed. Developmental (n=4412) and validation (n=4350) prognostic models based on clinical data available at first presentation showed good performance with close agreement and the final model utilised all 8762 patients to maximise power. The prognostic model showed strong associations with coronary mortality for age, sex, chest pain typicality, smoking status, diabetes, pulse rate, and ECG findings. Model discrimination was good (C statistic 0.83), patients in the highest risk quarter accounting for 173 coronary deaths (10-year risk of death: 8.7%) compared with a total of 60 deaths in the three lower risk quarters. When the model was simplified to incorporate only Diamond-Forrester factors (age, sex and character of symptoms) it underestimated coronary mortality risk, particularly in patients with reversible risk factors. For the first time in patients with suspected angina, a prognostic model is presented based on simple clinical factors available at the initial cardiological assessment. The model discriminated powerfully between patients at high risk and lower risk of coronary death during 10-year follow-up. Clinical utility was reflected in the prognostic value it added to the updated Diamond-Forrester diagnostic model of disease probability. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

  14. 25 Years of Model-Driven Web Engineering: What we achieved, What is missing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gustavo Rossi

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Model-Driven Web Engineering (MDWE approaches aim to improve the Web applications development process by focusing on modeling instead of coding, and deriving the running application by transformations from conceptual models to code. The emergence of the Interaction Flow Modeling Language (IFML has been an important milestone in the evolution of Web modeling languages, indicating not only the maturity of the field but also a final convergence of languages. In this paper we explain the evolution of modeling and design approaches since the early years (in the 90’s detailing the forces which drove that evolution and discussing the strengths and weaknesses of some of those approaches. A brief presentation of the IFML is accompanied with a thorough analysis of the most important achievements of the MDWE community as well as the problems and obstacles that hinder the dissemination of model-driven techniques in the Web engineering field.

  15. Relationship Between Vehicle Size and Fatality Risk in Model Year 1985-93 Passenger Cars and Light Trucks

    Science.gov (United States)

    1997-01-01

    Fatality rates per million exposure years are computed by make, model and model year, : based on the crash experience of model year 1985-93 passenger cars and light trucks (pickups) vans : and sport utility vehicles) in the United States during calen...

  16. A 1000-year simulation with the IPSL ocean-atmosphere coupled model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Conil

    2003-06-01

    Full Text Available A 1000-year climate simulation is run with the ocean-atmosphere coupled model developed at the Institute Pierre- Simon Laplace (IPSL, Paris. No flux adjustment is used. The drift of the model is analyzed in terms of the seasurface temperature and deep ocean temperature. When the model's own equilibrium is reached, it is found that the Antarctic bottom water production experiences large-amplitude variation, oscillating between strong and weak episodes. This can yield oceanic temperature variation in the Southern Hemisphere and for the global mean.

  17. A Multidimensional Model of School Dropout from an 8-Year Longitudinal Study in a General High School Population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fortin, Laurier; Marcotte, Diane; Diallo, Thierno; Potvin, Pierre; Royer, Egide

    2013-01-01

    This study tests an empirical multidimensional model of school dropout, using data collected in the first year of an 8-year longitudinal study, with first year high school students aged 12-13 years. Structural equation modeling analyses show that five personal, family, and school latent factors together contribute to school dropout identified at…

  18. Modeling the Impact of Wilderness Orientation Programs on First-Year Academic Success and Life Purpose

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bailey, Andrew W.; Kang, Hyoung-Kil

    2015-01-01

    Wilderness orientation programs (WOPs) are becoming a popular method of encouraging college student retention and success. Previous studies have identified outcomes and correlates of participation in these programs, but a cohesive model of impact is lacking. The purpose of this study was to assess the impact of WOPs on first-year student success…

  19. A Field Training Model for Creative Arts Therapies: Report from a 3-Year Program Evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orkibi, Hod

    2012-01-01

    Clinical field training is an essential component of educating future therapists. This article discusses a creative arts therapies field training model in Israel as designed and modified from 3 years of program evaluation in a changing regulatory context. A clinical seminar structure puts beginning students in the role of participant-observer in…

  20. A cognitive-behavioral model of problematic online gaming in adolescents aged 12–22 years

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Haagsma, M.C.; Caplan, S.E.; Peters, O.; Pieterse, Marcel E.

    2013-01-01

    The aim of this study was to apply the cognitive behavioral model of problematic Internet use to the context of online game use to obtain a better understanding of problematic use of online games and its negative consequences. In total, 597 online game playing adolescents aged 12–22 years

  1. A cognitive-behavioral model of problematic online gaming in adolescents aged 12-22 years

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Haagsma, M.C.; Caplan, S.E.; Peters, O.; Pieterse, M.E.

    2013-01-01

    The aim of this study was to apply the cognitive behavioral model of problematic Internet use to the context of online game use to obtain a better understanding of problematic use of online games and its negative consequences. In total, 597 online game playing adolescents aged 12-22 years

  2. Automotive Maintenance Data Base for Model Years 1976-1979. Part I

    Science.gov (United States)

    1980-12-01

    An update of the existing data base was developed to include life cycle maintenance costs of representative vehicles for the model years 1976-1979. Repair costs as a function of time are also developed for a passenger car in each of the compact, subc...

  3. Automotive Maintenance Data Base for Model Years 1976-1979. Part II : Appendix E and F

    Science.gov (United States)

    1980-12-01

    An update of the existing data base was developed to include life cycle maintenance costs of representative vehicles for the model years 1976-1979. Repair costs as a function of time are also developed for a passenger car in each of the compact, subc...

  4. Analysis of the Impacts of City Year's Whole School Whole Child Model on Partner Schools' Performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meredith, Julie; Anderson, Leslie M.

    2015-01-01

    City Year is a learning organization committed to the rigorous evaluation of its "Whole School Whole Child" model, which trains and deploys teams of AmeriCorps members to low-performing, urban schools to empower more students to reach their full potential. A third-party study by Policy Studies Associates (PSA) examined the impact of…

  5. Models for Information Assurance Education and Outreach: A Report on Year 2 Implementation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jianjun

    2014-01-01

    "Models for Information Assurance Education and Outreach" (MIAEO) is an NSF-funded, three-year project to support hands-on explorations in "network security" and "cryptography" through Research Experience Vitalizing Science-University Program (REVS-UP) at California State University, Bakersfield. In addition, the…

  6. Prediction vs. reality: Can a PVA model predict population persistence 13 years later?

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Schödelbauerová, Iva; Tremblay, R. L.; Kindlmann, Pavel

    2010-01-01

    Roč. 19, č. 3 (2010), s. 637-650 ISSN 0960-3115 R&D Projects: GA MŠk LC06073 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z60870520 Keywords : Lepanthes rubripetala * Matrix models * Orchids * Transition matrix Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 2.146, year: 2010

  7. Development, Validation and Parametric study of a 3-Year-Old Child Head Finite Element Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, Shihai; Chen, Yue; Li, Haiyan; Ruan, ShiJie

    2015-12-01

    Traumatic brain injury caused by drop and traffic accidents is an important reason for children's death and disability. Recently, the computer finite element (FE) head model has been developed to investigate brain injury mechanism and biomechanical responses. Based on CT data of a healthy 3-year-old child head, the FE head model with detailed anatomical structure was developed. The deep brain structures such as white matter, gray matter, cerebral ventricle, hippocampus, were firstly created in this FE model. The FE model was validated by comparing the simulation results with that of cadaver experiments based on reconstructing the child and adult cadaver experiments. In addition, the effects of skull stiffness on the child head dynamic responses were further investigated. All the simulation results confirmed the good biofidelity of the FE model.

  8. Physical aggression, compromised social support, and 10-year marital outcomes: Testing a relational spillover model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sullivan, Kieran T; Pasch, Lauri A; Lawrence, Erika; Bradbury, Thomas N

    2015-12-01

    The purpose of the present study was to test a relational spillover model of physical aggression whereby physical aggression affects marital outcomes due to its effects on how spouses ask for and provide support to one another. Newlywed couples (n = 172) reported levels of physical aggression over the past year and engaged in interactions designed to elicit social support; marital adjustment, and stability were assessed periodically over the first 10 years of marriage. Multilevel modeling revealed that negative support behavior mediated the relationship between physical aggression and 10-year marital adjustment levels whereas positive support behavior mediated the relationship between physical aggression and divorce status. These findings emphasize the need to look beyond conflict when explaining how aggression affects relationships and when working with couples with a history of physical aggression who are seeking to improve their relationships. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

  9. Using hematogram model to predict future metabolic syndrome in elderly: a 4-year longitudinal study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, Yu-Hsiang; Hsu, Chun-Hsien; Lin, Jiunn-Diann; Hsieh, Chang-Hsun; Wu, Chung-Ze; Chao, Ting-Ting; Pei, Dee; Liang, Yao-Jen; Wang, Kun; Chen, Yen-Lin

    2015-03-01

    The metabolic syndrome (MetS) is proposed to predict future occurrence of cardiovascular diseases and diabetes. There are some other "non-traditional" risk factors such as hematogram components that are also related to the same endpoints as MetS. In this four-year longitudinal study, we used hematogram components to build models for predicting future occurrence of MetS in older men and women separately. Subjects above 65 years without MetS and related diseases were enrolled. All subjects were followed up until they developed MetS or until up to four years from the day of entry, whichever was earlier. Among the 4539 study participants, 1327 developed MetS. Models were built for men and women separately and the areas under the receiver operation curves were significant. The Kaplan-Meier plot showed that the models could predict future MetS. Finally, Cox regression analysis showed that the hematogram model was correlated to future MetS with hazard ratios of 1.567 and 1.738 in men and women, respectively. Our hematogram models could significantly predict future MetS in elderly and might be more practical and convenient for daily clinical practice.

  10. A computational growth model for measuring dynamic cortical development in the first year of life.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nie, Jingxin; Li, Gang; Wang, Li; Gilmore, John H; Lin, Weili; Shen, Dinggang

    2012-10-01

    Human cerebral cortex develops extremely fast in the first year of life. Quantitative measurement of cortical development during this early stage plays an important role in revealing the relationship between cortical structural and high-level functional development. This paper presents a computational growth model to simulate the dynamic development of the cerebral cortex from birth to 1 year old by modeling the cerebral cortex as a deformable elastoplasticity surface driven via a growth model. To achieve a high accuracy, a guidance model is also incorporated to estimate the growth parameters and cortical shapes at later developmental stages. The proposed growth model has been applied to 10 healthy subjects with longitudinal brain MR images acquired at every 3 months from birth to 1 year old. The experimental results show that our proposed method can capture the dynamic developmental process of the cortex, with the average surface distance error smaller than 0.6 mm compared with the ground truth surfaces, and the results also show that 1) the curvedness and sharpness decrease from 2 weeks to 12 months and 2) the frontal lobe shows rapidly increasing cortical folding during this period, with relatively slower increase of the cortical folding in the occipital and parietal lobes.

  11. Partnerships for success: A collaborative support model to enhance the first year student experience

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Johanna Einfalt

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Recent discourse about engaging first year students calls for more collaboration in terms of adopting a holistic approach to course delivery and support. This paper discusses a collaborative support model operating at a regional Australian university since 2008. In particular, it describes a collaborative support initiative emerging from this model that is based on providing an informal consultative space where students can drop-in and gain assessment support for research, writing and content. A focus group, online surveys and interviews with co-ordinators were conducted to evaluate the impact of this initiative. Findings suggest that this collaborative support model impacts on the first year student experience by: raising awareness about academic skills and the processes for researching and writing; promoting peer learning opportunities; building confidence and providing suitable support for a diverse range of students.

  12. A Model of the Earth's Magnetic Field From Two Year of Swarm Satellite Constellation Data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Nils; Finlay, Chris; Tøffner-Clausen, Lars

    More than two year of data from ESA's Swarm constellation mission are used to derive a model of the Earth’s magnetic field and its time variation (secular variation). The model describes contributions from the core and lithosphere as well as large-scale contributions from the magnetosphere (and its...... Earth-induced counterpart). We use data from geomagnetic quiet times and co-estimate the Euler angles describing the rotation between the vector magnetometer instrument frame and the North-East-Center (NEC) frame. In addition to the magnetic field observations provided by each of the three Swarm...... satellites and alongtrack first differences we include the East-west magnetic gradient information provided by the lower Swarm satellite pair, thereby explicitly taking advantage of the constellation aspect of Swarm. We assess the spatial and temporal model resolution that can be obtained from two years...

  13. Modeling and predicting the Spanish Bachillerato academic results over the next few years using a random network model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cortés, J.-C.; Colmenar, J.-M.; Hidalgo, J.-I.; Sánchez-Sánchez, A.; Santonja, F.-J.; Villanueva, R.-J.

    2016-01-01

    Academic performance is a concern of paramount importance in Spain, where around of 30 % of the students in the last two courses in high school, before to access to the labor market or to the university, do not achieve the minimum knowledge required according to the Spanish educational law in force. In order to analyze this problem, we propose a random network model to study the dynamics of the academic performance in Spain. Our approach is based on the idea that both, good and bad study habits, are a mixture of personal decisions and influence of classmates. Moreover, in order to consider the uncertainty in the estimation of model parameters, we perform a lot of simulations taking as the model parameters the ones that best fit data returned by the Differential Evolution algorithm. This technique permits to forecast model trends in the next few years using confidence intervals.

  14. Precipitation forecasting by a mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP model: eight years of experience

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Kaufmann

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available The Swiss Model, a hydrostatic numerical weather prediction model, has been used at MeteoSwiss for operational forecasting at the meso-beta scale (mesh-size 14 km from 1994 until 2001. The quality of the quantitative precipitation forecasts is evaluated for the eight years of operation. The seasonal precipitation over Switzerland and its dependence on altitude is examined for both model forecasts and observations using the Swiss rain gauge network sampling daily precipitation at over 400 stations for verification. The mean diurnal cycle of precipitation is verified against the automatic surface observation network on the basis of hourly recordings. In winter, there is no diurnal forcing of precipitation and the modelled precipitation agrees with the observed values. In summer, the convection in the model starts too early, overestimates the amount of precipitation and is too short-lived. Skill scores calculated for six-hourly precipitation sums show a constant level of performance over the model life cycle. Dry and wet seasons influence the model performance more than the model changes during its operational period. The comprehensive verification of the model precipitation is complemented by the discussion of a number of heavy rain events investigated during the RAPHAEL project. The sensitivities to a number of model components are illustrated, namely the driving boundary fields, the internal partitioning of parameterised and grid-scale precipitation, the advection scheme and the vertical resolution. While a small impact of the advection scheme had to be expected, the increasing overprediction of rain with increasing vertical resolution in the RAPHAEL case studies was larger than previously thought. The frequent update of the boundary conditions enhances the positioning of the rain in the model. Keywords: numerical weather prediction, quantitative precipitation forecast, model verification

  15. Predictability of 2-year La Niña events in a coupled general circulation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    DiNezio, Pedro N.; Deser, Clara; Okumura, Yuko; Karspeck, Alicia

    2017-12-01

    The predictability of the duration of La Niña is assessed using the Community Earth System Model Version 1 (CESM1), a coupled climate model capable of simulating key features of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, including the multi-year duration of La Niña. Statistical analysis of a 1800 year long control simulation indicates that a strong thermocline discharge or a strong El Niño can lead to La Niña conditions that last 2 years (henceforth termed 2-year LN). This relationship suggest that 2-year LN maybe predictable 18 to 24 months in advance. Perfect model forecasts performed with CESM1 are used to further explore the link between 2-year LN and the "Discharge" and "Peak El Niño" predictors. Ensemble forecasts are initialized on January and July coinciding with ocean states characterized by peak El Niño amplitudes and peak thermocline discharge respectively. Three cases with different magnitudes of these predictors are considered resulting in a total of six ensembles. Each "Peak El Niño" and "Discharge" ensemble forecast consists of 30 or 20 members respectively, generated by adding a infinitesimally small perturbation to the atmospheric initial conditions unique to each member. The forecasts show that the predictability of 2-year LN, measured by the potential prediction utility (PPU) of the Niño-3.4 SST index during the second year, is related to the magnitude of the initial conditions. Forecasts initialized with strong thermocline discharge or strong peak El Niño amplitude show higher PPU than those with initial conditions of weaker magnitude. Forecasts initialized from states characterized by weaker predictors are less predictable, mainly because the ensemble-mean signal is smaller, and therefore PPU is reduced due to the influence of forecast spread. The error growth of the forecasts, measured by the spread of the Niño-3.4 SST index, is independent of the initial conditions and appears to be driven by wind variability over the

  16. Prediction model for 3-year rupture risk of unruptured cerebral aneurysms in Japanese patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tominari, Shinjiro; Morita, Akio; Ishibashi, Toshihiro; Yamazaki, Tomosato; Takao, Hiroyuki; Murayama, Yuichi; Sonobe, Makoto; Yonekura, Masahiro; Saito, Nobuhito; Shiokawa, Yoshiaki; Date, Isao; Tominaga, Teiji; Nozaki, Kazuhiko; Houkin, Kiyohiro; Miyamoto, Susumu; Kirino, Takaaki; Hashi, Kazuo; Nakayama, Takeo

    2015-06-01

    To build a prediction model that estimates the 3-year rupture risk of unruptured saccular cerebral aneurysms. Survival analysis was done using each aneurysm as the unit for analysis. Derivation data were from the Unruptured Cerebral Aneurysm Study (UCAS) in Japan. It consists of patients with unruptured cerebral aneurysms enrolled between 2000 and 2004 at neurosurgical departments at tertiary care hospitals in Japan. The model was presented as a scoring system, and aneurysms were classified into 4 risk grades by predicted 3-year rupture risk: I, 9%. The discrimination property and calibration plot of the model were evaluated with external validation data. They were a combination of 3 Japanese cohort studies: UCAS II, the Small Unruptured Intracranial Aneurysm Verification study, and the study at Jikei University School of Medicine. The derivation data include 6,606 unruptured cerebral aneurysms in 5,651 patients. During the 11,482 aneurysm-year follow-up period, 107 ruptures were observed. The predictors chosen for the scoring system were patient age, sex, and hypertension, along with aneurysm size, location, and the presence of a daughter sac. The 3-year risk of rupture ranged from 15% depending on the individual characteristics of patients and aneurysms. External validation indicated good discrimination and calibration properties. A simple scoring system that only needs easily available patient and aneurysmal information was constructed. This can be used in clinical decision making regarding management of unruptured cerebral aneurysms. © 2015 American Neurological Association.

  17. A participative evaluation model to refine academic support for first year Indigenous higher education students

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bronwyn Rossingh

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an evaluative approach designed to provide a cycle of continuous improvement to retain Indigenous students during their first year of higher education.   The evaluation model operates in conjunction with a student academic enrichment program that is premised on valuing and respecting each student's background and life experience whilst building capability for learning success.  Data collected will be used for continual improvement of a newly developed innovative academic enrichment program that caters to the needs of Indigenous students.  The defining mechanisms of the model for measuring the first year experience are particularly meaningful for the Australian Centre For Indigenous Knowledges and Education as it moves into its inaugural year of operation in 2012. This preeminent time requires a flexible model to receive timely feedback in a reflexive environment where students guide the process as they continue their journey of accumulating knowledge and leave behind their contribution in shaping the landscape for future first year Indigenous students.  

  18. A year 2003 conceptual model for the U.S. telecommunications infrastructure.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cox, Roger Gary; Reinert, Rhonda K.

    2003-12-01

    To model the telecommunications infrastructure and its role and robustness to shocks, we must characterize the business and engineering of telecommunications systems in the year 2003 and beyond. By analogy to environmental systems modeling, we seek to develop a 'conceptual model' for telecommunications. Here, the conceptual model is a list of high-level assumptions consistent with the economic and engineering architectures of telecommunications suppliers and customers, both today and in the near future. We describe the present engineering architectures of the most popular service offerings, and describe the supplier markets in some detail. We also develop a characterization of the customer base for telecommunications services and project its likely response to disruptions in service, base-lining such conjectures against observed behaviors during 9/11.

  19. Two-Year versus One-Year Head Start Program Impact: Addressing Selection Bias by Comparing Regression Modeling with Propensity Score Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leow, Christine; Wen, Xiaoli; Korfmacher, Jon

    2015-01-01

    This article compares regression modeling and propensity score analysis as different types of statistical techniques used in addressing selection bias when estimating the impact of two-year versus one-year Head Start on children's school readiness. The analyses were based on the national Head Start secondary dataset. After controlling for…

  20. Computable General Equilibrium Model Fiscal Year 2013 Capability Development Report - April 2014

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Edwards, Brian Keith [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States). National Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis Center (NISAC); Rivera, Michael K. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States). National Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis Center (NISAC); Boero, Riccardo [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States). National Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis Center (NISAC)

    2014-04-01

    This report documents progress made on continued developments of the National Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis Center (NISAC) Computable General Equilibrium Model (NCGEM), developed in fiscal year 2012. In fiscal year 2013, NISAC the treatment of the labor market and tests performed with the model to examine the properties of the solutions computed by the model. To examine these, developers conducted a series of 20 simulations for 20 U.S. States. Each of these simulations compared an economic baseline simulation with an alternative simulation that assumed a 20-percent reduction in overall factor productivity in the manufacturing industries of each State. Differences in the simulation results between the baseline and alternative simulations capture the economic impact of the reduction in factor productivity. While not every State is affected in precisely the same way, the reduction in manufacturing industry productivity negatively affects the manufacturing industries in each State to an extent proportional to the reduction in overall factor productivity. Moreover, overall economic activity decreases when manufacturing sector productivity is reduced. Developers ran two additional simulations: (1) a version of the model for the State of Michigan, with manufacturing divided into two sub-industries (automobile and other vehicle manufacturing as one sub-industry and the rest of manufacturing as the other subindustry); and (2) a version of the model for the United States, divided into 30 industries. NISAC conducted these simulations to illustrate the flexibility of industry definitions in NCGEM and to examine the simulation properties of in more detail.

  1. Forty years of 9Sr in situ migration: importance of soil characterization in modeling transport phenomena

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fernandez, J.M.; Piault, E.; Macouillard, D.; Juncos, C.

    2006-01-01

    In 1960 experiments were carried out on the transfer of 9 Sr between soil, grapes and wine. The experiments were conducted in situ on a piece of land limited by two control strips. The 9 Sr migration over the last 40 years was studied by performing radiological and physico-chemical characterizations of the soil on eight 70 cm deep cores. The vertical migration modeling of 9 Sr required the definition of a triple layer conceptual model integrating the rainwater infiltration at constant flux as the only external factor of influence. Afterwards the importance of a detailed soil characterization for modeling was discussed and satisfactory simulation of the 9 Sr vertical transport was obtained and showed a calculated migration rate of about 1.0 cm year -1 in full agreement with the in situ measured values. The discussion was regarding some of the key parameters such as granulometry, organic matter content (in the Van Genuchten parameter determination), Kd and the efficient rainwater infiltration. Besides the experimental data, simplifying assumptions in modeling such as water-soil redistribution calculation and factual discontinuities in conceptual model were examined

  2. Cross-Scale Modelling of Subduction from Minute to Million of Years Time Scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sobolev, S. V.; Muldashev, I. A.

    2015-12-01

    Subduction is an essentially multi-scale process with time-scales spanning from geological to earthquake scale with the seismic cycle in-between. Modelling of such process constitutes one of the largest challenges in geodynamic modelling today.Here we present a cross-scale thermomechanical model capable of simulating the entire subduction process from rupture (1 min) to geological time (millions of years) that employs elasticity, mineral-physics-constrained non-linear transient viscous rheology and rate-and-state friction plasticity. The model generates spontaneous earthquake sequences. The adaptive time-step algorithm recognizes moment of instability and drops the integration time step to its minimum value of 40 sec during the earthquake. The time step is then gradually increased to its maximal value of 5 yr, following decreasing displacement rates during the postseismic relaxation. Efficient implementation of numerical techniques allows long-term simulations with total time of millions of years. This technique allows to follow in details deformation process during the entire seismic cycle and multiple seismic cycles. We observe various deformation patterns during modelled seismic cycle that are consistent with surface GPS observations and demonstrate that, contrary to the conventional ideas, the postseismic deformation may be controlled by viscoelastic relaxation in the mantle wedge, starting within only a few hours after the great (M>9) earthquakes. Interestingly, in our model an average slip velocity at the fault closely follows hyperbolic decay law. In natural observations, such deformation is interpreted as an afterslip, while in our model it is caused by the viscoelastic relaxation of mantle wedge with viscosity strongly varying with time. We demonstrate that our results are consistent with the postseismic surface displacement after the Great Tohoku Earthquake for the day-to-year time range. We will also present results of the modeling of deformation of the

  3. Ten-year operational dust forecasting - Recent model development and future plans

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kallos, G; Spyrou, C; Astitha, M; Mitsakou, C; Solomos, S; Kushta, J; Pytharoulis, I; Katsafados, P; Mavromatidis, E; Papantoniou, N; Vlastou, G [University of Athens, School of Physics, Atmospheric Modeling and Weather Forecasting Group - UOA/AM and WFG, University Campus, Bldg. PHYS-V, Athens 15784 (Greece)], E-mail: kallos@mg.uoa.gr

    2009-03-01

    The Sahara desert is one of the major sources of mineral dust on Earth, producing up to 2x10{sup 8} t yr-{sup 1}. A combined effort has been devoted during the last ten years at the University of Athens (UOA) from the Atmospheric Modeling and Weather Forecasting Group (AM and WFG) to the development of an analysis and forecasting tool that will provide early warning of Saharan dust outbreaks. The developed tool is the SKIRON limited-area forecasting system, based on the Eta limited area modeling system with embedded algorithms describing the dust cycle. A new version of the model is currently available, with extra features like eight-size particle bins, radiative transfer corrections, new dust source identification and utilization of rocky soil characterization and incorporation of more accurate deposition schemes. The new version of SKIRON modeling system is coupled with the photochemical model CAMx in order to study processes like the shading effect of dust particles on photochemical processes and the production of second and third generation of aerosols. Moreover, another new development in the AM and WFG is based on the RAMS model, with the incorporation of processes like dust and sea-salt production, gas and aqueous phase chemistry and particle formation. In this study, the major characteristics of the developed (and under development) modeling systems are presented, as well as the spatiotemporal distribution of the transported dust amounts, the interaction with anthropogenically-produced particles and the potential implications on radiative transfer.

  4. The SIR model of Zika virus disease outbreak in Brazil at year 2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aik, Lim Eng; Kiang, Lam Chee; Hong, Tan Wei; Abu, Mohd Syafarudy

    2017-05-01

    This research study demonstrates a numerical model intended for comprehension the spread of the year 2015 Zika virus disease utilizing the standard SIR framework. In modeling virulent disease dynamics, it is important to explore whether the illness spread could accomplish a pandemic level or it could be eradicated. Information from the year 2015 Zika virus disease event is utilized and Brazil where the event began is considered in this research study. A three dimensional nonlinear differential equation is formulated and solved numerically utilizing the Euler's method in MS excel. It is appeared from the research study that, with health intercessions of public, the viable regenerative number can be decreased making it feasible for the event to cease to exist. It is additionally indicated numerically that the pandemic can just cease to exist when there are no new infected people in the populace.

  5. Evaluation of 6 and 10 Year-Old Child Human Body Models in Emergency Events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gras, Laure-Lise; Stockman, Isabelle; Brolin, Karin

    2017-01-01

    Emergency events can influence a child's kinematics prior to a car-crash, and thus its interaction with the restraint system. Numerical Human Body Models (HBMs) can help understand the behaviour of children in emergency events. The kinematic responses of two child HBMs-MADYMO 6 and 10 year-old models-were evaluated and compared with child volunteers' data during emergency events-braking and steering-with a focus on the forehead and sternum displacements. The response of the 6 year-old HBM was similar to the response of the 10 year-old HBM, however both models had a different response compared with the volunteers. The forward and lateral displacements were within the range of volunteer data up to approximately 0.3 s; but then, the HBMs head and sternum moved significantly downwards, while the volunteers experienced smaller displacement and tended to come back to their initial posture. Therefore, these HBMs, originally intended for crash simulations, are not too stiff and could be able to reproduce properly emergency events thanks, for instance, to postural control.

  6. Mercury Studies around the Mediterranean Sea Basin: Ten years of Measurements and Modeling results

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sprovieri F.

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Only a few years ago the presence of Reactive Gaseous Mercury (RGM was believed to be almost exclusively the result of anthropogenic emissions and that sustained high RGM concentrations in the MBL were not considered likely. During the past ten years, an in-depth investigation was carried out in the Marine Boundary Layer (MBL of the Mediterranean Sea to quantify and possibly explain spatial and temporal patterns of Hg-species concentrations. This paper provides an overview of modeling results and atmospheric measurements performed during several cruise campaigns performed aboard the Research Vessel (RV URANIA of the CNR over the Mediterranean sea basin. RGM concentrations have been modelled using a photochemical box model of the MBL and compared to measured data obtained during the research cruises. The comparison results supports the hypothesis that there are daytime mercury oxidation reactions occurring which have not yet been identified. Major findings of key studies carried out during ten years of ship-borne activities have been highlighted.

  7. Insight, psychopathology, explanatory models and outcome of schizophrenia in India: a prospective 5-year cohort study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Johnson Shanthi

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The sole focus of models of insight on bio-medical perspectives to the complete exclusion of local, non-medical and cultural constructs mandates review. This study attempted to investigate the impact of insight, psychopathology, explanatory models of illness on outcome of first episode schizophrenia. Method Patients diagnosed to have DSM IV schizophrenia (n = 131 were assessed prospectively for insight, psychopathology, explanatory models of illness at baseline, 6, 12 and 60 months using standard instruments. Multiple linear and logistic regression and generalized estimating equations (GEE were employed to assess predictors of outcome. Results We could follow up 95 (72.5% patients. Sixty-five of these patients (68.4% achieved remission. There was a negative relationship between psychosis rating and insight scores. Urban residence, fluctuating course of the initial illness, and improvement in global functioning at 6 months and lower psychosis rating at 12 months were significantly related to remission at 5 years. Insight scores, number of non-medical explanatory models and individual explanatory models held during the later course of the illness were significantly associated with outcome. Analysis of longitudinal data using GEE showed that women, rural residence, insight scores and number of non-medical explanatory models of illness held were significantly associated with BPRS scores during the study period. Conclusions Insight, the disease model and the number of non-medical model positively correlated with improvement in psychosis arguing for a complex interaction between the culture, context and illness variables. These finding argue that insight and explanatory models are secondary to psychopathology, course and outcome of the illness. The awareness of mental illness is a narrative act in which people make personal sense of the many challenges they face. The course and outcome of the illness, cultural context

  8. Modeling the Office of Science ten year facilities plan: The PERI Architecture Tiger Team

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Supinski, Bronis R de; Gamblin, Todd; Schulz, Martin

    2009-01-01

    The Performance Engineering Institute (PERI) originally proposed a tiger team activity as a mechanism to target significant effort optimizing key Office of Science applications, a model that was successfully realized with the assistance of two JOULE metric teams. However, the Office of Science requested a new focus beginning in 2008: assistance in forming its ten year facilities plan. To meet this request, PERI formed the Architecture Tiger Team, which is modeling the performance of key science applications on future architectures, with S3D, FLASH and GTC chosen as the first application targets. In this activity, we have measured the performance of these applications on current systems in order to understand their baseline performance and to ensure that our modeling activity focuses on the right versions and inputs of the applications. We have applied a variety of modeling techniques to anticipate the performance of these applications on a range of anticipated systems. While our initial findings predict that Office of Science applications will continue to perform well on future machines from major hardware vendors, we have also encountered several areas in which we must extend our modeling techniques in order to fulfill our mission accurately and completely. In addition, we anticipate that models of a wider range of applications will reveal critical differences between expected future systems, thus providing guidance for future Office of Science procurement decisions, and will enable DOE applications to exploit machines in future facilities fully.

  9. Semivariogram models for estimating fig fly population density throughout the year

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mauricio Paulo Batistella Pasini

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this work was to select semivariogram models to estimate the population density of fig fly (Zaprionus indianus; Diptera: Drosophilidae throughout the year, using ordinary kriging. Nineteen monitoring sites were demarcated in an area of 8,200 m2, cropped with six fruit tree species: persimmon, citrus, fig, guava, apple, and peach. During a 24 month period, 106 weekly evaluations were done in these sites. The average number of adult fig flies captured weekly per trap, during each month, was subjected to the circular, spherical, pentaspherical, exponential, Gaussian, rational quadratic, hole effect, K-Bessel, J-Bessel, and stable semivariogram models, using ordinary kriging interpolation. The models with the best fit were selected by cross-validation. Each data set (months has a particular spatial dependence structure, which makes it necessary to define specific models of semivariograms in order to enhance the adjustment to the experimental semivariogram. Therefore, it was not possible to determine a standard semivariogram model; instead, six theoretical models were selected: circular, Gaussian, hole effect, K-Bessel, J-Bessel, and stable.

  10. Spherical Cap Harmonic Modelling of 400 Years of Secular Variation in the South-west Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ingham, M.; Alfheid, M.; Ingham, E. M.; Turner, G. M.

    2014-12-01

    Historical magnetic data recorded in ship's logs on voyages of exploration and trade in the south-west Pacific have been used as a basis for constructing a model of secular variation in the region using spherical cap harmonic (SCH) analysis. The spherical cap used is centred on colatitude 115° and longitude 160° and has a radius of 50°, thus covering New Zealand, Australia and parts of Antarctica. Gaps in the observational data have been filled by an iterative procedure started by using IGRF field values to obtain SCH models for 2000, 1950 and 1900 and assuming that the spherical cap coefficients have a linear variation in time over the 400 year time period of the model, as is observed to a first approximation for Gauss coefficients calculated from a global spherical harmonic analysis. The resulting field models have generally smooth spatial and temporal variations in declination, inclination and intensity which show some differences from the variations calculated using the global spherical harmonic model gufm1. The technique clearly shows promise for producing more refined models of secular variation in the south-west Pacific when the historical data are supplemented by archeomagnetic and paleomagnetic data.

  11. Global Multi-Year O3-CO Correlation Patterns from Models and TES Satellite Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voulgarakis, A.; Telford, P. J.; Aghedo, A. M.; Braesicke, P.; Faluvegi, G.; Abraham, N. L.; Bowman, K. W.; Pyle, J. A.; Shindell, D. T.

    2011-01-01

    The correlation between measured tropospheric ozone (O3) and carbon monoxide (CO) has been used extensively in tropospheric chemistry studies to explore the photochemical characteristics of different regions and to evaluate the ability of models to capture these characteristics. Here, we present the first study that uses multi-year, global, vertically resolved, simultaneous and collocated O3 and CO satellite (Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer) measurements, to determine this correlation in the middle/lower free troposphere for two different seasons, and to evaluate two chemistry-climate models. We find results that are fairly robust across different years, altitudes and timescales considered, which indicates that the correlation maps presented here could be used in future model evaluations. The highest positive correlations (around 0.8) are found in the northern Pacific during summer, which is a common feature in the observations and the G-PUCCINI model. We make quantitative comparisons between the models using a single-figure metric (C), which we define as the correlation coefficient between the modeled and the observed O3-CO correlations for different regions of the globe. On a global scale, the G-PUCCINI model shows a good performance in the summer (C =0.71) and a satisfactory performance in the winter (C = 0.52). It captures midlatitude features very well, especially in the summer, whereas the performance in regions like South America or Central Africa is weaker. The UKCA model (C = 0.46/0.15 for July-August/December-January on a global scale) performs better in certain regions, such as the tropics in winter, and it captures some of the broad characteristics of summer extratropical correlations, but it systematically underestimates the O3-CO correlations over much of the globe. It is noteworthy that the correlations look very different in the two models, even though the ozone distributions are similar. This demonstrates that this technique provides a powerful

  12. Evaluating Engagement Models for a Citizen Science Project: Lessons Learned From Four Years of Nature's Notebook

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crimmins, T. M.; Rosemartin, A.

    2012-12-01

    The success of citizen science programs hinges on their abilities to recruit and maintain active participants. The USA National Phenology Network's plant and animal phenology observation program, Nature's Notebook, has been active since 2009. This program engages thousands of citizen scientists in tracking plant and animal life cycle activity over the course of the year. We embarked on an evaluation of the various observer recruitment and retention tactics that we have employed over the ~4-year life of this program to better inform future outreach efforts specific to Nature's Notebook and for the broader citizen science community. Participants in Nature's Notebook may become engaged via one of three pathways: individuals may join Nature's Notebook directly, they may be invited to join through a USA-NPN partner organization, or they may engage through a group with local, site-based leadership. The level and type of recruitment tactics, training, and retention efforts that are employed varies markedly among these three models. In this evaluation, we compared the efficacy of these three engagement models using several metrics: number of individuals recruited, number of individuals that go on to submit at least one data point, retention rates over time, duration of activity, and quantity of data points submitted. We also qualitatively considered the differences in costs the three models require to support. In terms of recruitment, direct engagement yielded 20-100 times more registrants than other two models. In contrast, rates of participation were highest for site-based leadership (>35%, versus 20-30% for direct engagement; rates for partner organizations were highly variable due to small sample sizes). Individuals participating through partners with site-based leadership showed a much higher rate of retention (41% of participants remained active for two+ years) than those participating directly in Nature's Notebook (27% of participants remained active for two+ years

  13. Skill of Predicting Heavy Rainfall Over India: Improvement in Recent Years Using UKMO Global Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, Kuldeep; Ashrit, Raghavendra; Bhatla, R.; Mitra, A. K.; Iyengar, G. R.; Rajagopal, E. N.

    2017-11-01

    The quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) performance for heavy rains is still a challenge, even for the most advanced state-of-art high-resolution Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) modeling systems. This study aims to evaluate the performance of UK Met Office Unified Model (UKMO) over India for prediction of high rainfall amounts (>2 and >5 cm/day) during the monsoon period (JJAS) from 2007 to 2015 in short range forecast up to Day 3. Among the various modeling upgrades and improvements in the parameterizations during this period, the model horizontal resolution has seen an improvement from 40 km in 2007 to 17 km in 2015. Skill of short range rainfall forecast has improved in UKMO model in recent years mainly due to increased horizontal and vertical resolution along with improved physics schemes. Categorical verification carried out using the four verification metrics, namely, probability of detection (POD), false alarm ratio (FAR), frequency bias (Bias) and Critical Success Index, indicates that QPF has improved by >29 and >24% in case of POD and FAR. Additionally, verification scores like EDS (Extreme Dependency Score), EDI (Extremal Dependence Index) and SEDI (Symmetric EDI) are used with special emphasis on verification of extreme and rare rainfall events. These scores also show an improvement by 60% (EDS) and >34% (EDI and SEDI) during the period of study, suggesting an improved skill of predicting heavy rains.

  14. Finding the 'lost years' in green turtles: insights from ocean circulation models and genetic analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Putman, Nathan F; Naro-Maciel, Eugenia

    2013-10-07

    Organismal movement is an essential component of ecological processes and connectivity among ecosystems. However, estimating connectivity and identifying corridors of movement are challenging in oceanic organisms such as young turtles that disperse into the open sea and remain largely unobserved during a period known as 'the lost years'. Using predictions of transport within an ocean circulation model and data from published genetic analysis, we present to our knowledge, the first basin-scale hypothesis of distribution and connectivity among major rookeries and foraging grounds (FGs) of green turtles (Chelonia mydas) during their 'lost years'. Simulations indicate that transatlantic dispersal is likely to be common and that recurrent connectivity between the southwestern Indian Ocean and the South Atlantic is possible. The predicted distribution of pelagic juvenile turtles suggests that many 'lost years hotspots' are presently unstudied and located outside protected areas. These models, therefore, provide new information on possible dispersal pathways that link nesting beaches with FGs. These pathways may be of exceptional conservation concern owing to their importance for sea turtles during a critical developmental period.

  15. Future-year ozone prediction for the United States using updated models and inputs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collet, Susan; Kidokoro, Toru; Karamchandani, Prakash; Shah, Tejas; Jung, Jaegun

    2017-08-01

    The relationship between emission reductions and changes in ozone can be studied using photochemical grid models. These models are updated with new information as it becomes available. The primary objective of this study was to update the previous Collet et al. studies by using the most up-to-date (at the time the study was done) modeling emission tools, inventories, and meteorology available to conduct ozone source attribution and sensitivity studies. Results show future-year, 2030, design values for 8-hr ozone concentrations were lower than base-year values, 2011. The ozone source attribution results for selected cities showed that boundary conditions were the dominant contributors to ozone concentrations at the western U.S. locations, and were important for many of the eastern U.S. Point sources were generally more important in the eastern United States than in the western United States. The contributions of on-road mobile emissions were less than 5 ppb at a majority of the cities selected for analysis. The higher-order decoupled direct method (HDDM) results showed that in most of the locations selected for analysis, NOx emission reductions were more effective than VOC emission reductions in reducing ozone levels. The source attribution results from this study provide useful information on the important source categories and provide some initial guidance on future emission reduction strategies. The relationship between emission reductions and changes in ozone can be studied using photochemical grid models, which are updated with new available information. This study was to update the previous Collet et al. studies by using the most current, at the time the study was done, models and inventory to conduct ozone source attribution and sensitivity studies. The source attribution results from this study provide useful information on the important source categories and provide some initial guidance on future emission reduction strategies.

  16. A Validated Normative Model for Human Uterine Volume from Birth to Age 40 Years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelsey, Thomas W; Ginbey, Eleanor; Chowdhury, Moti M; Bath, Louise E; Anderson, Richard A; Wallace, W Hamish B

    2016-01-01

    Transabdominal pelvic ultrasound and/or pelvic Magnetic Resonance Imaging are safe, accurate and non-invasive means of determining the size and configuration of the internal female genitalia. The assessment of uterine size and volume is helpful in the assessment of many conditions including disorders of sex development, precocious or delayed puberty, infertility and menstrual disorders. Using our own data from the assessment of MRI scans in healthy young females and data extracted from four studies that assessed uterine volume using transabdominal ultrasound in healthy females we have derived and validated a normative model of uterine volume from birth to age 40 years. This shows that uterine volume increases across childhood, with a faster increase in adolescence reflecting the influence of puberty, followed by a slow but progressive rise during adult life. The model suggests that around 84% of the variation in uterine volumes in the healthy population up to age 40 is due to age alone. The derivation of a validated normative model for uterine volume from birth to age 40 years has important clinical applications by providing age-related reference values for uterine volume.

  17. On the Cutting Edge Professional Development Program - An effective model built from years of experience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruckner, M. Z.; Macdonald, H.; Beane, R. J.; Manduca, C. A.; Mcconnell, D. A.; Mogk, D. W.; Tewksbury, B. J.; Wiese, K.; Wysession, M. E.; Iverson, E. A. R.; Fox, S.

    2015-12-01

    The On the Cutting Edge (CE) program offers a successful model for designing and convening professional development events. Information about the model is now available on the CE website. The program model has evolved from more than 12 years of experience, building with input from strong leaders and participants. CE offers face-to-face, virtual, and hybrid events, and features a rich website that supports these professional development events as well as a growing community with a shared interest in effective geoscience teaching. Data from national surveys, participant feedback, and self-report data indicate the program's success in improving undergraduate geoscience education. Successes are also demonstrated in classroom observations using RTOP, indicating a significant difference in teaching style among participants and non-participants. A suite of web pages, with a planning timeline, provides guidance to those interested in designing and convening face-to-face or virtual events based on the CE model. The pages suggest ways to develop robust event goals and evaluation tools, how to choose strong leaders and recruit diverse participants, advice for designing effective event programs that utilize participant expertise, websites, and web tools, and suggestions for effectively disseminating event results and producing useful products. The CE model has been successfully transferred to projects that vary in scale and discipline. Best practices from the CE model include (1) thinking of the workshop as shared enterprise among conveners and participants; (2) incorporating conveners and participants who bring diverse viewpoints and approaches; (3) promoting structured discussions that utilize participants' expertise; (4) emphasizing practical strategies to effect change; and (5) using the website as a platform to prepare for the workshop, share ideas, and problem-solve challenges. Learn more about how to utilize this model for your project at:serc.carleton.edu/NAGTWorkshops/workshops/convene

  18. Stochastic modeling of economic injury levels with respect to yearly trends in price commodity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Damos, Petros

    2014-05-01

    The economic injury level (EIL) concept integrates economics and biology and uses chemical applications in crop protection only when economic loss by pests is anticipated. The EIL is defined by five primary variables: the cost of management tactic per production unit, the price of commodity, the injury units per pest, the damage per unit injury, and the proportionate reduction of injury averted by the application of a tactic. The above variables are related according to the formula EIL = C/VIDK. The observable dynamic alteration of the EIL due to its different parameters is a major characteristic of its concept. In this study, the yearly effect of the economic variables is assessed, and in particular the influence of the parameter commodity value on the shape of the EIL function. In addition, to predict the effects of the economic variables on the EIL level, yearly commodity values were incorporated in the EIL formula and the generated outcomes were further modelled with stochastic linear autoregressive models having different orders. According to the AR(1) model, forecasts for the five-year period of 2010-2015 ranged from 2.33 to 2.41 specimens per sampling unit. These values represent a threshold that is in reasonable limits to justify future control actions. Management actions as related to productivity and price commodity significantly affect costs of crop production and thus define the adoption of IPM and sustainable crop production systems at local and international levels. This is an open access paper. We use the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 license that permits unrestricted use, provided that the paper is properly attributed.

  19. Fear Extinction as a Model for Translational Neuroscience: Ten Years of Progress

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milad, Mohammed R.; Quirk, Gregory J.

    2016-01-01

    The psychology of extinction has been studied for decades. Approximately 10 years ago, however, there began a concerted effort to understand the neural circuits of extinction of fear conditioning, in both animals and humans. Progress during this period has been facilitated by an unusual degree of coordination between rodent and human researchers examining fear extinction. This successful research program could serve as a model for translational research in other areas of behavioral neuroscience. Here we review the major advances and highlight new approaches to understanding and exploiting fear extinction. PMID:22129456

  20. Thirty Years with EoS/GE Models - What Have We Learned?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kontogeorgis, Georgios M.; Coutsikos, Philippos

    2012-01-01

    Thirty years of research and the use of EoS/GE mixing rules in cubic equations of state are reviewed. The most popular approaches are presented both from the derivation and application points of view and they are compared to each other. It is shown that all methods have significant capabilities...... but also limitations which are discussed. A useful approach is presented for analyzing the models by looking at the activity coefficient expression derived from the equations of state using various mixing rules. The size-asymmetric systems are investigated in detail, and an explanation is provided on how...

  1. Search for the Standard Model Higgs boson at LEP in the year 2000

    CERN Document Server

    Abreu, P.; Adye, T.; Adzic, P.; Albrecht, Z.; Alderweireld, T.; Alekseev, G.D.; Alemany, R.; Allmendinger, T.; Allport, P.P.; Almehed, S.; Amaldi, U.; Amapane, N.; Amato, S.; Anashkin, E.; Anassontzis, E.G.; Andersson, P.; Andreazza, A.; Andringa, S.; Anjos, N.; Antilogus, P.; Apel, W.D.; Arnoud, Y.; Asman, B.; Augustin, J.E.; Augustinus, A.; Baillon, P.; Ballestrero, A.; Bambade, P.; Barao, F.; Barbiellini, G.; Barbier, R.; Bardin, Dmitri Yu.; Barker, G.J.; Baroncelli, A.; Battaglia, M.; Baubillier, M.; Becks, K.H.; Begalli, M.; Behrmann, A.; Belokopytov, Yu.; Belous, K.; Benekos, N.C.; Benvenuti, A.C.; Berat, C.; Berggren, M.; Berntzon, L.; Bertrand, D.; Besancon, M.; Besson, N.; Bilenky, Mikhail S.; Bloch, D.; Blom, H.M.; Bol, L.; Bonesini, M.; Boonekamp, M.; Booth, P.S.L.; Borisov, G.; Bosio, C.; Botner, O.; Boudinov, E.; Bouquet, B.; Bowcock, T.J.V.; Boyko, I.; Bozovic, I.; Bozzo, M.; Bracko, M.; Branchini, P.; Brenner, R.A.; Bruckman, P.; Brunet, J.M.; Bugge, L.; Buschmann, P.; Caccia, M.; Calvi, M.; Camporesi, T.; Canale, V.; Carena, F.; Carroll, L.; Caso, C.; Castillo Gimenez, M.V.; Cattai, A.; Cavallo, F.R.; Chapkin, M.; Charpentier, P.; Checchia, P.; Chelkov, G.A.; Chierici, R.; Chliapnikov, P.; Chochula, P.; Chorowicz, V.; Chudoba, J.; Cieslik, K.; Collins, P.; Contri, R.; Cortina, E.; Cosme, G.; Cossutti, F.; Costa, M.; Crawley, H.B.; Crennell, D.; Croix, J.; Crosetti, G.; Cuevas Maestro, J.; Czellar, S.; D'Hondt, J.; Dalmau, J.; Davenport, M.; Da Silva, W.; Della Ricca, G.; Delpierre, P.; Demaria, N.; De Angelis, A.; De Boer, W.; De Clercq, C.; De Lotto, B.; De Min, A.; De Paula, L.; Dijkstra, H.; Di Ciaccio, L.; Doroba, K.; Dracos, M.; Drees, J.; Dris, M.; Eigen, G.; Ekelof, T.; Ellert, M.; Elsing, M.; Engel, J.P.; Espirito Santo, M.C.; Fanourakis, G.; Fassouliotis, D.; Feindt, M.; Fernandez, J.; Ferrer, A.; Ferrer-Ribas, E.; Ferro, F.; Firestone, A.; Flagmeyer, U.; Foeth, H.; Fokitis, E.; Franek, B.; Frodesen, A.G.; Fruhwirth, R.; Fulda-Quenzer, F.; Fuster, J.; Gamba, D.; Gamblin, S.; Gandelman, M.; Garcia, C.; Gaspar, C.; Gaspar, M.; Gasparini, U.; Gavillet, P.; Gazis, Evangelos; Gele, D.; Geralis, T.; Ghodbane, N.; Gil Botella, Ines; Glege, F.; Gokieli, R.; Golob, B.; Gomez-Ceballos, G.; Goncalves, P.; Gonzalez Caballero, I.; Gopal, G.; Gorn, L.; Gouz, Yu.; Gracco, V.; Grahl, J.; Graziani, E.; Grosdidier, G.; Grzelak, K.; Guy, J.; Haag, C.; Hahn, F.; Hahn, S.; Haider, S.; Hallgren, A.; Hamacher, K.; Hansen, J.; Harris, F.J.; Haug, S.; Hauler, F.; Hedberg, V.; Heising, S.; Hernandez, J.J.; Herquet, P.; Herr, H.; Hertz, O.; Higon, E.; Holmgren, S.O.; Holt, P.J.; Hoorelbeke, S.; Houlden, M.; Hrubec, J.; Hughes, G.J.; Hultqvist, K.; Jackson, John Neil; Jacobsson, R.; Jalocha, P.; Jarlskog, C.; Jarlskog, G.; Jarry, P.; Jean-Marie, B.; Jeans, D.; Johansson, Erik Karl; Jonsson, P.; Joram, C.; Juillot, P.; Jungermann, L.; Kapusta, Frederic; Karafasoulis, K.; Katsanevas, S.; Katsoufis, E.C.; Keranen, R.; Kernel, G.; Kersevan, B.P.; Khomenko, B.A.; Khovanski, N.N.; Kiiskinen, A.; King, B.; Kinvig, A.; Kjaer, N.J.; Klapp, O.; Kluit, P.; Kokkinias, P.; Kostioukhine, V.; Kourkoumelis, C.; Kouznetsov, O.; Krammer, M.; Kriznic, E.; Krumstein, Z.; Kubinec, P.; Kucharczyk, M.; Kurowska, J.; Lamsa, J.W.; Laugier, J.P.; Leder, G.; Ledroit, Fabienne; Leinonen, L.; Leisos, A.; Leitner, R.; Lenzen, G.; Lepeltier, V.; Lesiak, T.; Lethuillier, M.; Libby, J.; Liebig, W.; Liko, D.; Lipniacka, A.; Lippi, I.; Loken, J.G.; Lopes, J.H.; Lopez, J.M.; Lopez-Fernandez, R.; Loukas, D.; Lutz, P.; Lyons, L.; MacNaughton, J.; Mahon, J.R.; Maio, A.; Malek, A.; Maltezos, S.; Malychev, V.; Mandl, F.; Marco, J.; Marco, R.; Marechal, B.; Margoni, M.; Marin, J.C.; Mariotti, C.; Markou, A.; Martinez-Rivero, C.; Marti i Garcia, S.; Masik, J.; Mastroyiannopoulos, N.; Matorras, F.; Matteuzzi, C.; Matthiae, G.; Mazzucato, F.; Mazzucato, M.; McCubbin, M.; McKay, R.; McNulty, R.; Merle, E.; Meroni, C.; Meyer, W.T.; Miagkov, A.; Migliore, E.; Mirabito, L.; Mitaroff, W.A.; Mjoernmark, U.; Moa, T.; Moch, M.; Monig, Klaus; Monge, M.R.; Montenegro, J.; Moraes, D.; Morettini, P.; Morton, G.; Muller, U.; Muenich, K.; Mulders, M.; Mundim, L.M.; Murray, W.J.; Muryn, B.; Myatt, G.; Myklebust, T.; Nassiakou, M.; Navarria, F.L.; Nawrocki, K.; Negri, P.; Nemecek, S.; Neufeld, N.; Nicolaidou, R.; Niezurawski, P.; Nikolenko, M.; Nomokonov, V.; Nygren, A.; Obraztsov, V.; Olshevski, A.G.; Onofre, A.; Orava, R.; Osterberg, K.; Ouraou, A.; Oyanguren, A.; Paganoni, M.; Paiano, S.; Pain, R.; Paiva, R.; Palacios, J.; Palka, H.; Papadopoulou, T.D.; Pape, L.; Parkes, C.; Parodi, F.; Parzefall, U.; Passeri, A.; Passon, O.; Peralta, L.; Perepelitsa, V.; Pernicka, M.; Perrotta, A.; Petridou, C.; Petrolini, A.; Phillips, H.T.; Pierre, F.; Pimenta, M.; Piotto, E.; Podobnik, T.; Poireau, V.; Pol, M.E.; Polok, G.; Poropat, P.; Pozdniakov, V.; Privitera, P.; Pukhaeva, N.; Pullia, A.; Radojicic, D.; Ragazzi, S.; Rahmani, H.; Read, Alexander L.; Rebecchi, P.; Redaelli, Nicola Giuseppe; Regler, M.; Rehn, J.; Reid, D.; Reinhardt, R.; Renton, P.B.; Resvanis, L.K.; Richard, F.; Ridky, J.; Rinaudo, G.; Ripp-Baudot, Isabelle; Romero, A.; Ronchese, P.; Rosenberg, E.I.; Rosinsky, P.; Roudeau, P.; Rovelli, T.; Ruhlmann-Kleider, V.; Ruiz, A.; Saarikko, H.; Sacquin, Y.; Sadovsky, A.; Sajot, G.; Salmi, L.; Salt, J.; Sampsonidis, D.; Sannino, M.; Savoy-Navarro, A.; Schwanda, C.; Schwemling, P.; Schwering, B.; Schwickerath, U.; Scuri, Fabrizio; Sedykh, Y.; Segar, A.M.; Sekulin, R.; Sette, G.; Shellard, R.C.; Siebel, M.; Simard, L.; Simonetto, F.; Sisakian, A.N.; Smadja, G.; Smirnov, N.; Smirnova, O.; Smith, G.R.; Sokolov, A.; Sopczak, A.; Sosnowski, R.; Spassov, T.; Spiriti, E.; Squarcia, S.; Stanescu, C.; Stanitzki, M.; Stevenson, K.; Stocchi, A.; Strauss, J.; Strub, R.; Stugu, B.; Szczekowski, M.; Szeptycka, M.; Tabarelli, T.; Taffard, A.; Chikilev, O.; Tegenfeldt, F.; Terranova, F.; Timmermans, Jan; Tinti, N.; Tkatchev, L.G.; Tobin, M.; Todorova, S.; Tome, B.; Tonazzo, A.; Tortora, L.; Tortosa, P.; Treille, D.; Tristram, G.; Trochimczuk, M.; Troncon, C.; Turluer, M.L.; Tyapkin, I.A.; Tyapkin, P.; Tzamarias, S.; Ullaland, O.; Uvarov, V.; Valenti, G.; Vallazza, E.; Vander Velde, C.; Van Dam, Piet; Van den Boeck, W.; Van Doninck, Walter; Van Eldik, J.; Van Lysebetten, A.; van Remortel, N.; Van Vulpen, I.; Vegni, G.; Ventura, L.; Venus, W.; Verbeure, F.; Verdier, P.; Verlato, M.; Vertogradov, L.S.; Verzi, V.; Vilanova, D.; Vitale, L.; Vlasov, E.; Vodopianov, A.S.; Voulgaris, G.; Vrba, V.; Wahlen, H.; Washbrook, A.J.; Weiser, C.; Wicke, D.; Wickens, J.H.; Wilkinson, G.R.; Winter, M.; Witek, M.; Wolf, G.; Yi, J.; Yushchenko, O.; Zalewska, A.; Zalewski, P.; Zavrtanik, D.; Zevgolatakos, E.; Zimine, N.I.; Zintchenko, A.; Zoller, P.; Zumerle, G.; Zupan, M.

    2001-01-01

    Searches for the Standard Model Higgs boson have been performed in the data collected by the DELPHI experiment at LEP in the year 2000 at centre-of-mass energies between 200 and 209~\\mbox{${\\mathrm{GeV}} $} corresponding to a total integrated \\mbox{luminosity} of 224~\\mbox{pb$^{-1}$}. No evidence for a Higgs signal is observed in the kinematically accessible mass range, and a 95\\% CL lower mass limit of 114.3~\\mbox{${\\mathrm{GeV}}/c ^2 $} is set, to be compared with an expected median limit of 113.5~\\mbox{${\\mathrm{GeV}}/c^2 $} for these data.

  2. Estrogen receptor testing and 10-year mortality from breast cancer: A model for determining testing strategy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher Naugler

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: The use of adjuvant tamoxifen therapy in the treatment of estrogen receptor (ER expressing breast carcinomas represents a major advance in personalized cancer treatment. Because there is no benefit (and indeed there is increased morbidity and mortality associated with the use of tamoxifen therapy in ER-negative breast cancer, its use is restricted to women with ER expressing cancers. However, correctly classifying cancers as ER positive or negative has been challenging given the high reported false negative test rates for ER expression in surgical specimens. In this paper I model practice recommendations using published information from clinical trials to address the question of whether there is a false negative test rate above which it is more efficacious to forgo ER testing and instead treat all patients with tamoxifen regardless of ER test results. Methods: I used data from randomized clinical trials to model two different hypothetical treatment strategies: (1 the current strategy of treating only ER positive women with tamoxifen and (2 an alternative strategy where all women are treated with tamoxifen regardless of ER test results. The variables used in the model are literature-derived survival rates of the different combinations of ER positivity and treatment with tamoxifen, varying true ER positivity rates and varying false negative ER testing rates. The outcome variable was hypothetical 10-year survival. Results: The model predicted that there will be a range of true ER rates and false negative test rates above which it would be more efficacious to treat all women with breast cancer with tamoxifen and forgo ER testing. This situation occurred with high true positive ER rates and false negative ER test rates in the range of 20-30%. Conclusions: It is hoped that this model will provide an example of the potential importance of diagnostic error on clinical outcomes and furthermore will give an example of how the effect of that

  3. Modelling radiative transfer through ponded first-year Arctic sea ice with a plane-parallel model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taskjelle, Torbjørn; Hudson, Stephen R.; Granskog, Mats A.; Hamre, Børge

    2017-09-01

    Under-ice irradiance measurements were done on ponded first-year pack ice along three transects during the ICE12 expedition north of Svalbard. Bulk transmittances (400-900 nm) were found to be on average 0.15-0.20 under bare ice, and 0.39-0.46 under ponded ice. Radiative transfer modelling was done with a plane-parallel model. While simulated transmittances deviate significantly from measured transmittances close to the edge of ponds, spatially averaged bulk transmittances agree well. That is, transect-average bulk transmittances, calculated using typical simulated transmittances for ponded and bare ice weighted by the fractional coverage of the two surface types, are in good agreement with the measured values. Radiative heating rates calculated from model output indicates that about 20 % of the incident solar energy is absorbed in bare ice, and 50 % in ponded ice (35 % in pond itself, 15 % in the underlying ice). This large difference is due to the highly scattering surface scattering layer (SSL) increasing the albedo of the bare ice.

  4. Modelling radiative transfer through ponded first-year Arctic sea ice with a plane-parallel model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Taskjelle

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Under-ice irradiance measurements were done on ponded first-year pack ice along three transects during the ICE12 expedition north of Svalbard. Bulk transmittances (400–900 nm were found to be on average 0.15–0.20 under bare ice, and 0.39–0.46 under ponded ice. Radiative transfer modelling was done with a plane-parallel model. While simulated transmittances deviate significantly from measured transmittances close to the edge of ponds, spatially averaged bulk transmittances agree well. That is, transect-average bulk transmittances, calculated using typical simulated transmittances for ponded and bare ice weighted by the fractional coverage of the two surface types, are in good agreement with the measured values. Radiative heating rates calculated from model output indicates that about 20 % of the incident solar energy is absorbed in bare ice, and 50 % in ponded ice (35 % in pond itself, 15 % in the underlying ice. This large difference is due to the highly scattering surface scattering layer (SSL increasing the albedo of the bare ice.

  5. Advanced Test Reactor Core Modeling Update Project Annual Report for Fiscal Year 2011

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nigg, David W.; Steuhm, Devin A.

    2011-01-01

    Legacy computational reactor physics software tools and protocols currently used for support of Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) core fuel management and safety assurance and, to some extent, experiment management are obsolete, inconsistent with the state of modern nuclear engineering practice, and are becoming increasingly difficult to properly verify and validate (V and V). Furthermore, the legacy staff knowledge required for application of these tools and protocols from the 1960s and 1970s is rapidly being lost due to staff turnover and retirements. In 2009 the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) initiated a focused effort to address this situation through the introduction of modern high-fidelity computational software and protocols, with appropriate V and V, within the next 3-4 years via the ATR Core Modeling and Simulation and V and V Update (or 'Core Modeling Update') Project. This aggressive computational and experimental campaign will have a broad strategic impact on the operation of the ATR, both in terms of improved computational efficiency and accuracy for support of ongoing DOE programs as well as in terms of national and international recognition of the ATR National Scientific User Facility (NSUF). The ATR Core Modeling Update Project, targeted for full implementation in phase with the anticipated ATR Core Internals Changeout (CIC) in the 2014 time frame, began during the last quarter of Fiscal Year 2009, and has just completed its first full year. Key accomplishments so far have encompassed both computational as well as experimental work. A new suite of stochastic and deterministic transport theory based reactor physics codes and their supporting nuclear data libraries (SCALE, KENO-6, HELIOS, NEWT, and ATTILA) have been installed at the INL under various permanent sitewide license agreements and corresponding baseline models of the ATR and ATRC are now operational, demonstrating the basic feasibility of these code packages for their intended purpose

  6. Advanced Test Reactor Core Modeling Update Project Annual Report for Fiscal Year 2011

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    David W. Nigg; Devin A. Steuhm

    2011-09-01

    Legacy computational reactor physics software tools and protocols currently used for support of Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) core fuel management and safety assurance and, to some extent, experiment management are obsolete, inconsistent with the state of modern nuclear engineering practice, and are becoming increasingly difficult to properly verify and validate (V&V). Furthermore, the legacy staff knowledge required for application of these tools and protocols from the 1960s and 1970s is rapidly being lost due to staff turnover and retirements. In 2009 the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) initiated a focused effort to address this situation through the introduction of modern high-fidelity computational software and protocols, with appropriate V&V, within the next 3-4 years via the ATR Core Modeling and Simulation and V&V Update (or 'Core Modeling Update') Project. This aggressive computational and experimental campaign will have a broad strategic impact on the operation of the ATR, both in terms of improved computational efficiency and accuracy for support of ongoing DOE programs as well as in terms of national and international recognition of the ATR National Scientific User Facility (NSUF). The ATR Core Modeling Update Project, targeted for full implementation in phase with the anticipated ATR Core Internals Changeout (CIC) in the 2014 time frame, began during the last quarter of Fiscal Year 2009, and has just completed its first full year. Key accomplishments so far have encompassed both computational as well as experimental work. A new suite of stochastic and deterministic transport theory based reactor physics codes and their supporting nuclear data libraries (SCALE, KENO-6, HELIOS, NEWT, and ATTILA) have been installed at the INL under various permanent sitewide license agreements and corresponding baseline models of the ATR and ATRC are now operational, demonstrating the basic feasibility of these code packages for their intended purpose. Furthermore

  7. Neuronal cell death, nerve growth factor and neurotrophic models: 50 years on.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennet, M R; Gibson, W G; Lemon, G

    2002-01-10

    Viktor Hamburger has just died at the age of 100. It is 50 years since he and Rita Levi-Montalcini laid the foundations for the study of naturally occurring cell death and of neurotrophic factors in the nervous system. In a period of less than 10 years, from 1949 to 1958, Hamburger and Levi-Montalcini made the following seminal discoveries: that neuron cell death occurs in dorsal root ganglia, sympathetic ganglia and the cervical column of motoneurons; that the predictions arising from this observation, namely that survival is dependent on the supply of a trophic factor, could be substantiated by studying the effects of a sarcoma on the proliferation of ganglionic processes both in vivo and in vitro; and that the proliferation of these processes could be used as an assay system to isolate the factor. This work provides a short review mostly of the early history of this subject in the context of the Hamburger/Levi-Montalcini paradigm. This acts as an introduction to a consideration of models that have been proposed to account for how the different sources of growth factors provide for the survival of neurons during development. It is suggested that what has been called the 'social-control' model provides the most parsimonious quantitative description of the contribution of trophic factors to neuronal survival, a concept for which we are in debt to Viktor Hamburger and Rita Levi-Montalcini.

  8. Modelling analysis and prediction of women javelin throw results in the years I946 — 2013

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P Grycmann

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The main goals of our study of the women's javelin throw were twofold; first, to analyse the dynamics of female javelin throw results variability as a function of time (time period 1946-2014, second, to create a predictive model of the results during the upcoming 4 years. The study material consisted of databases covering the female track and field events obtained from the International Association of Athletics Federations. Prior to predicting the magnitude of results change dynamics in the time to follow, the adjustment of trend function to empirical data was tested using the coefficients of convergence. Phase ll of the investigation consisted of the construction of predictive models. The greatest decreases in result indexes were noted in 2000 (9.4%, 2005-2006 (8.7% and Z009 (7.4%. The trend increase was only noted in the years 2006-2008. In general, until 1998 the mean result improved by 54.6% (100% - results of 1946 whereas from 1999 through 2011 the result only increased by 1.3%. Based on data and results variability analysis it might be presumed that, in the nearest future (2015-2018, results variability will increase by approximately 9.7%. Percent improvement of javelin throw distance calculated on the basis of the 1999 raw input data is 1.4% (end of 2014.

  9. The National Tumor Association Foundation (ANT: A 30 year old model of home palliative care

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bonazzi Valeria

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Models of palliative care delivery develop within a social, cultural, and political context. This paper describes the 30-year history of the National Tumor Association (ANT, a palliative care organization founded in the Italian province of Bologna, focusing on this model of home care for palliative cancer patients and on its evaluation. Methods Data were collected from the 1986-2008 ANT archives and documents from the Emilia-Romagna Region Health Department, Italy. Outcomes of interest were changed in: number of patients served, performance status at admission (Karnofsky Performance Status score [KPS], length of participation in the program (days of care provided, place of death (home vs. hospital/hospice, and satisfaction with care. Statistical methods included linear and quadratic regressions. A linear and a quadratic regressions were generated; the independent variable was the year, while the dependent one was the number of patients from 1986 to 2008. Two linear regressions were generated for patients died at home and in the hospital, respectively. For each regression, the R square, the unstandardized and standardized coefficients and related P-values were estimated. Results The number of patients served by ANT has increased continuously from 131 (1986 to a cumulative total of 69,336 patients (2008, at a steady rate of approximately 121 additional patients per year and with no significant gender difference. The annual number of home visits increased from 6,357 (1985 to 904,782 (2008. More ANT patients died at home than in hospice or hospital; this proportion increased from 60% (1987 to 80% (2007. The rate of growth in the number of patients dying in hospital/hospice was approximately 40 patients/year (p 40 increased. Mean days of care for patients with KPS > 40 exceeded mean days for patients with KPS Conclusions The ANT home care model of palliative care delivery has been well-received, with progressively growing numbers

  10. 40 CFR Appendix I to Part 600 - Highway Fuel Economy Driving Schedule (Applicable to 1978 and Later Model Year Automobiles)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 29 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Highway Fuel Economy Driving Schedule (Applicable to 1978 and Later Model Year Automobiles) I Appendix I to Part 600 Protection of Environment... to 1978 and Later Model Year Automobiles) [ speed (mph) vs time (sec) ] SEC MPH SEC MPH SEC MPH SEC...

  11. 76 FR 76932 - Public Hearings for 2017 and Later Model Year Light-Duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Emissions and...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-12-09

    .../otaq/climate/regulations.htm or by searching the public dockets (NHTSA-2010-0131 (for the proposed rule... emissions from and improve fuel economy for light-duty vehicles for model years 2017-2025. The proposal... Program to reduce greenhouse gas emissions of light-duty vehicles for model years 2017-2025. The proposal...

  12. A 40-year accumulation dataset for Adelie Land, Antarctica and its application for model validation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Agosta, Cecile; Favier, Vincent [UJF-Grenoble 1 / CNRS, Laboratoire de Glaciologie et de Geophysique de l' Environnement UMR 5183, Saint Martin d' Heres (France); Genthon, Christophe; Gallee, Hubert; Krinner, Gerhard [CNRS / UJF-Grenoble 1, Laboratoire de Glaciologie et de Geophysique de l' Environnement UMR 5183, Saint Martin d' Heres (France); Lenaerts, Jan T.M.; Broeke, Michiel R. van den [Utrecht University, Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht (Netherlands)

    2012-01-15

    The GLACIOCLIM-SAMBA (GS) Antarctic accumulation monitoring network, which extends from the coast of Adelie Land to the Antarctic plateau, has been surveyed annually since 2004. The network includes a 156-km stake-line from the coast inland, along which accumulation shows high spatial and interannual variability with a mean value of 362 mm water equivalent a{sup -1}. In this paper, this accumulation is compared with older accumulation reports from between 1971 and 1991. The mean and annual standard deviation and the km-scale spatial pattern of accumulation were seen to be very similar in the older and more recent data. The data did not reveal any significant accumulation trend over the last 40 years. The ECMWF analysis-based forecasts (ERA-40 and ERA-Interim), a stretched-grid global general circulation model (LMDZ4) and three regional circulation models (PMM5, MAR and RACMO2), all with high resolution over Antarctica (27-125 km), were tested against the GS reports. They qualitatively reproduced the meso-scale spatial pattern of the annual-mean accumulation except MAR. MAR significantly underestimated mean accumulation, while LMDZ4 and RACMO2 overestimated it. ERA-40 and the regional models that use ERA-40 as lateral boundary condition qualitatively reproduced the chronology of interannual variability but underestimated the magnitude of interannual variations. Two widely used climatologies for Antarctic accumulation agreed well with the mean GS data. The model-based climatology was also able to reproduce the observed spatial pattern. These data thus provide new stringent constraints on models and other large-scale evaluations of the Antarctic accumulation. (orig.)

  13. Improved climate model evaluation using a new, 750-year Antarctic-wide snow accumulation product

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medley, B.; Thomas, E. R.

    2017-12-01

    Snow that accumulates over the cold, dry grounded ice of Antarctica is an important component of its mass balance, mitigating the ice sheet's contribution to sea level. Secular trends in accumulation not only result trends in the mass balance of the Antarctic Ice Sheet, but also directly and indirectly impact surface height changes. Long-term and spatiotemporally complete records of snow accumulation are needed to understand part and present Antarctic-wide mass balance, to convert from altimetry derived volume change to mass change, and to evaluate the ability of climate models to reproduce the observed climate change. We need measurements in both time and space, yet they typically sample one dimension at the expense of the other. Here, we develop a spatially complete, annually resolved snow accumulation product for the Antarctic Ice Sheet over the past 750 years by combining a newly compiled database of ice core accumulation records with climate model output. We mainly focus on climate model evaluation. Because the product spans several centuries, we can evaluate model ability in representing the preindustrial as well as present day accumulation change. Significant long-term trends in snow accumulation are found over the Ross and Bellingshausen Sea sectors of West Antarctica, the Antarctic Peninsula, and several sectors in East Antarctica. These results suggest that change is more complex over the Antarctic Ice Sheet than a simple uniform change (i.e., more snowfall in a warming world), which highlights the importance of atmospheric circulation as a major driver of change. By evaluating several climate models' ability to reproduce the observed trends, we can deduce whether their projections are reasonable or potentially biased where the latter would result in a misrepresentation of the Antarctic contribution to sea level.

  14. Transition in, Transition out: a sustainable model to engage first year students in learning. A Practice Report

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrea Chester

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Peer mentoring, presented as an inclusive teaching approach, embedded in the curriculum, has been successfully implemented to support first year student learning. Developing sustainable and scalable models for large first year cohorts, however, provides a challenge. The Transition in, Transition out model is a sustainable peer mentoring model supporting the transition of both first and final year students. The model has been implemented in two Australian psychology programs, one face-to-face and one delivered online. The focus in this Practice Report will be on the outcome data for on-campus first year student at one university. Participants were 231 first year students (166 females and 65 males. Results suggest positive changes in academic performance and learning approaches as well as positive endorsement of the model.

  15. Advanced Test Reactor Core Modeling Update Project Annual Report for Fiscal Year 2012

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    David W. Nigg, Principal Investigator; Kevin A. Steuhm, Project Manager

    2012-09-01

    Legacy computational reactor physics software tools and protocols currently used for support of Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) core fuel management and safety assurance, and to some extent, experiment management, are inconsistent with the state of modern nuclear engineering practice, and are difficult, if not impossible, to properly verify and validate (V&V) according to modern standards. Furthermore, the legacy staff knowledge required for application of these tools and protocols from the 1960s and 1970s is rapidly being lost due to staff turnover and retirements. In late 2009, the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) initiated a focused effort, the ATR Core Modeling Update Project, to address this situation through the introduction of modern high-fidelity computational software and protocols. This aggressive computational and experimental campaign will have a broad strategic impact on the operation of the ATR, both in terms of improved computational efficiency and accuracy for support of ongoing DOE programs as well as in terms of national and international recognition of the ATR National Scientific User Facility (NSUF). The ATR Core Modeling Update Project, targeted for full implementation in phase with the next anticipated ATR Core Internals Changeout (CIC) in the 2014-2015 time frame, began during the last quarter of Fiscal Year 2009, and has just completed its third full year. Key accomplishments so far have encompassed both computational as well as experimental work. A new suite of stochastic and deterministic transport theory based reactor physics codes and their supporting nuclear data libraries (HELIOS, KENO6/SCALE, NEWT/SCALE, ATTILA, and an extended implementation of MCNP5) has been installed at the INL under various licensing arrangements. Corresponding models of the ATR and ATRC are now operational with all five codes, demonstrating the basic feasibility of the new code packages for their intended purpose. Of particular importance, a set of as-run core

  16. WRF-based fire risk modelling and evaluation for years 2010 and 2012 in Poland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stec, Magdalena; Szymanowski, Mariusz; Kryza, Maciej

    2016-04-01

    Wildfires are one of the main ecosystems' disturbances for forested, seminatural and agricultural areas. They generate significant economic loss, especially in forest management and agriculture. Forest fire risk modeling is therefore essential e.g. for forestry administration. In August 2015 a new method of forest fire risk forecasting entered into force in Poland. The method allows to predict a fire risk level in a 4-degree scale (0 - no risk, 3 - highest risk) and consists of a set of linearized regression equations. Meteorological information is used as predictors in regression equations, with air temperature, relative humidity, average wind speed, cloudiness and rainfall. The equations include also pine litter humidity as a measure of potential fuel characteristics. All these parameters are measured routinely in Poland at 42 basic and 94 auxiliary sites. The fire risk level is estimated for a current (basing on morning measurements) or next day (basing on midday measurements). Entire country is divided into 42 prognostic zones, and fire risk level for each zone is taken from the closest measuring site. The first goal of this work is to assess if the measurements needed for fire risk forecasting may be replaced by the data from mesoscale meteorological model. Additionally, the use of a meteorological model would allow to take into account much more realistic spatial differentiation of weather elements determining the fire risk level instead of discrete point-made measurements. Meteorological data have been calculated using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF). For the purpose of this study the WRF model is run in the reanalysis mode allowing to estimate all required meteorological data in a 5-kilometers grid. The only parameter that cannot be directly calculated using WRF is the litter humidity, which has been estimated using empirical formula developed by Sakowska (2007). The experiments are carried out for two selected years: 2010 and 2012. The

  17. Solar irradiance variability: a six-year comparison between SORCE observations and the SATIRE model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ball, W. T.; Unruh, Y. C.; Krivova, N. A.; Solanki, S.; Harder, J. W.

    2011-06-01

    Aims: We investigate how well modeled solar irradiances agree with measurements from the SORCE satellite, both for total solar irradiance and broken down into spectral regions on timescales of several years. Methods: We use the SATIRE model and compare modeled total solar irradiance (TSI) with TSI measurements over the period 25 February 2003 to 1 November 2009. Spectral solar irradiance over 200-1630 nm is compared with the SIM instrument on SORCE over the period 21 April 2004 to 1 November 2009. We discuss the overall change in flux and the rotational and long-term trends during this period of decline from moderate activity to the recent solar minimum in ~10 nm bands and for three spectral regions of significant interest: the UV integrated over 200-300 nm, the visible over 400-691 nm and the IR between 972-1630 nm. Results: The model captures 97% of the observed TSI variation. This is on the order at which TSI detectors agree with each other during the period considered. In the spectral comparison, rotational variability is well reproduced, especially between 400 and 1200 nm. The magnitude of change in the long-term trends is many times larger in SIM at almost all wavelengths while trends in SIM oppose SATIRE in the visible between 500 and 700 nm and again between 1000 and 1200 nm. We discuss the remaining issues with both SIM data and the identified limits of the model, particularly with the way facular contributions are dealt with, the limit of flux identification in MDI magnetograms during solar minimum and the model atmospheres in the IR employed by SATIRE. However, it is unlikely that improvements in these areas will significantly enhance the agreement in the long-term trends. This disagreement implies that some mechanism other than surface magnetism is causing SSI variations, in particular between 2004 and 2006, if the SIM data are correct. Since SATIRE was able to reproduce UV irradiance between 1991 and 2002 from UARS, either the solar mechanism for SSI

  18. Prognostic models for predicting posttraumatic seizures during acute hospitalization, and at 1 and 2 years following traumatic brain injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ritter, Anne C; Wagner, Amy K; Szaflarski, Jerzy P; Brooks, Maria M; Zafonte, Ross D; Pugh, Mary Jo V; Fabio, Anthony; Hammond, Flora M; Dreer, Laura E; Bushnik, Tamara; Walker, William C; Brown, Allen W; Johnson-Greene, Doug; Shea, Timothy; Krellman, Jason W; Rosenthal, Joseph A

    2016-09-01

    Posttraumatic seizures (PTS) are well-recognized acute and chronic complications of traumatic brain injury (TBI). Risk factors have been identified, but considerable variability in who develops PTS remains. Existing PTS prognostic models are not widely adopted for clinical use and do not reflect current trends in injury, diagnosis, or care. We aimed to develop and internally validate preliminary prognostic regression models to predict PTS during acute care hospitalization, and at year 1 and year 2 postinjury. Prognostic models predicting PTS during acute care hospitalization and year 1 and year 2 post-injury were developed using a recent (2011-2014) cohort from the TBI Model Systems National Database. Potential PTS predictors were selected based on previous literature and biologic plausibility. Bivariable logistic regression identified variables with a p-value load, and pre-injury limitation in learning/remembering/concentrating as significant PTS predictors during acute hospitalization. Significant predictors of PTS at year 1 were subdural hematoma (SDH), contusion load, craniotomy, craniectomy, seizure during acute hospitalization, duration of posttraumatic amnesia, preinjury mental health treatment/psychiatric hospitalization, and preinjury incarceration. Year 2 significant predictors were similar to those of year 1: SDH, intraparenchymal fragment, craniotomy, craniectomy, seizure during acute hospitalization, and preinjury incarceration. Corrected concordance (C) statistics were 0.599, 0.747, and 0.716 for acute hospitalization, year 1, and year 2 models, respectively. The prognostic model for PTS during acute hospitalization did not discriminate well. Year 1 and year 2 models showed fair to good predictive validity for PTS. Cranial surgery, although medically necessary, requires ongoing research regarding potential benefits of increased monitoring for signs of epileptogenesis, PTS prophylaxis, and/or rehabilitation/social support. Future studies should

  19. Thirty years of progress in applications and modeling of ocean ambient noise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siderius, Martin; Buckingham, Michael J.

    2012-11-01

    Ambient noise in the ocean is a stochastic process, which traditionally was considered to be a nuisance, since it reduced the detectability of sonar signals of interest. However, over the last thirty years, it has come to be recognized that the ambient noise itself contains useful information about the ocean and ocean processes. To extract the information, various inversion procedures have been developed, based upon which a number of practical applications of the ambient noise have evolved. Since naturally generated ambient noise is always present in the ocean, it has the advantage of being non-invasive and non-damaging to marine life, including marine mammals. In this article, a summary of the commonly encountered ambient noise models is offered, along with the associated inversion procedures, and some of the more recent applications of the ambient noise are highlighted.

  20. Combination of Satellite Images and Numerical Model for the State Followed the Coast of the Bay of Bejaia-Jijel

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bachari Nour El Islam

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Bay of Bejaia-Jijel extends over a length of 100 km with the presence of the ports, the beaches of rivers that discharge of the bay. This area characterized by strong economic activity, namely tourism and fisheries. However, severe erosion, high hydrodynamic activity and significant silting of ports affect this bay. Hence, the interest of this study, which tries to explain these phenomena, based on multisource data with multitasking models. First, we developed an algorithm that can convert satellite images in coastline vector. This technique applied to three images LANDSAT TM and OLI sensed in 1987, 2011; 2015. The multi-temporal monitoring coastlines show that the region suffered severe erosion. This erosion is 4.6 m / year for the period of 1987/2011 and 1.5 m / year for the period 2011/2015. To explain this phenomenon we interested to do a study of hydrodynamics using the SWAN software. We used a long time series of wind speed and direction to discern extreme cases in the region. For maximum wind, the significant wave height recorded very high values and a very active orbital current with a speed that exceeds 0.7 m / s. Numerical modelling has allowed us to explain the erosion but does not explain the speed difference coastline. To find the explanation of erosion speed difference between the two periods we consulted the administrative archive of the region. In the archive, the number of authorized hourglasses is, 12 in the 90s, but 36 quarries operate haphazardly. In this period the balance of suspended matter is completely unbalanced which promotes erosion. After 2008, these quarries were closed therefore the balance of the suspended material has improved and consequently coastal erosion has decreased.

  1. The 2-MEV model: Constancy of adolescent environmental values within an 8-year time frame

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bogner, F. X.; Johnson, B.; Buxner, S.; Felix, L.

    2015-08-01

    The 2-MEV model is a widely used tool to monitor children's environmental perception by scoring individual values. Although the scale's validity has been confirmed repeatedly and independently as well as the scale is in usage within more than two dozen language units all over the world, longitudinal properties still need clarification. The purpose of the present study therefore was to validate the 2-MEV scale based on a large data basis of 10,676 children collected over an eight-year period. Cohorts of three different US states contributed to the sample by responding to a paper-and-pencil questionnaire within their pre-test initiatives in the context of field center programs. Since we used only the pre-program 2-MEV scale results (which is before participation in education programs), the data were clearly unspoiled by any follow-up interventions. The purpose of analysis was fourfold: First, to test and confirm the hypothesized factorized structure for the large data set and for the subsample of each of the three states. Second, to analyze the scoring pattern across the eight years' time range for both preservation and utilitarian preferences. Third, to investigate any age effects in the extracted factors. Finally, to extract suitable recommendations for educational implementation efforts.

  2. The First 24 Years of Reverse Monte Carlo Modelling, Budapest, Hungary, 20-22 September 2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keen, David A.; Pusztai, László

    2013-11-01

    This special issue contains a collection of papers reflecting the content of the fifth workshop on reverse Monte Carlo (RMC) methods, held in a hotel on the banks of the Danube in the Budapest suburbs in the autumn of 2012. Over fifty participants gathered to hear talks and discuss a broad range of science based on the RMC technique in very convivial surroundings. Reverse Monte Carlo modelling is a method for producing three-dimensional disordered structural models in quantitative agreement with experimental data. The method was developed in the late 1980s and has since achieved wide acceptance within the scientific community [1], producing an average of over 90 papers and 1200 citations per year over the last five years. It is particularly suitable for the study of the structures of liquid and amorphous materials, as well as the structural analysis of disordered crystalline systems. The principal experimental data that are modelled are obtained from total x-ray or neutron scattering experiments, using the reciprocal space structure factor and/or the real space pair distribution function (PDF). Additional data might be included from extended x-ray absorption fine structure spectroscopy (EXAFS), Bragg peak intensities or indeed any measured data that can be calculated from a three-dimensional atomistic model. It is this use of total scattering (diffuse and Bragg), rather than just the Bragg peak intensities more commonly used for crystalline structure analysis, which enables RMC modelling to probe the often important deviations from the average crystal structure, to probe the structures of poorly crystalline or nanocrystalline materials, and the local structures of non-crystalline materials where only diffuse scattering is observed. This flexibility across various condensed matter structure-types has made the RMC method very attractive in a wide range of disciplines, as borne out in the contents of this special issue. It is however important to point out that since

  3. A tale of two models: Changes in psychological need satisfaction and physical activity over 3 years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gunnell, Katie E; Bélanger, Mathieu; Brunet, Jennifer

    2016-02-01

    (a) Examine longitudinal measurement invariance of scores from psychological need satisfaction (PNS) scales, and (b) examine if changes in PNS were associated with change in moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA). Adolescents (N = 842, Mage = 10.8, SD = .6) enrolled in the Monitoring Activities of Teenagers to Comprehend their Habits (MATCH) study completed measures of PNS and MVPA every 4 months over a 3-year period (2011-14) for a total of 9 times. PNS scores demonstrated strong longitudinal measurement invariance (i.e., invariant factor loadings and intercepts). Latent growth curve modeling indicated that a factor representing perceptions of all 3 PNS variables was positively associated with MVPA at Time 1 (β = .562, p change over time. Further, 2 equally well fitting models were found suggesting that change in PNS can be both an antecedent and an outcome of MVPA. As such, both PNS and MVPA could be targeted in interventions aimed at increasing need satisfaction or MVPA. (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

  4. Advanced Test Reactor Core Modeling Update Project Annual Report for Fiscal Year 2010

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rahmat Aryaeinejad; Douglas S. Crawford; Mark D. DeHart; George W. Griffith; D. Scott Lucas; Joseph W. Nielsen; David W. Nigg; James R. Parry; Jorge Navarro

    2010-09-01

    Legacy computational reactor physics software tools and protocols currently used for support of Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) core fuel management and safety assurance and, to some extent, experiment management are obsolete, inconsistent with the state of modern nuclear engineering practice, and are becoming increasingly difficult to properly verify and validate (V&V). Furthermore, the legacy staff knowledge required for application of these tools and protocols from the 1960s and 1970s is rapidly being lost due to staff turnover and retirements. In 2009 the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) initiated a focused effort to address this situation through the introduction of modern high-fidelity computational software and protocols, with appropriate V&V, within the next 3-4 years via the ATR Core Modeling and Simulation and V&V Update (or “Core Modeling Update”) Project. This aggressive computational and experimental campaign will have a broad strategic impact on the operation of the ATR, both in terms of improved computational efficiency and accuracy for support of ongoing DOE programs as well as in terms of national and international recognition of the ATR National Scientific User Facility (NSUF).

  5. Assessment of Food Chain Pathway Parameters in Biosphere Models: Annual Progress Report for Fiscal Year 2004

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Napier, Bruce A.; Krupka, Kenneth M.; Fellows, Robert J.; Cataldo, Dominic A.; Valenta, Michelle M.; Gilmore, Tyler J.

    2004-12-02

    This Annual Progress Report describes the work performed and summarizes some of the key observations to date on the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s project Assessment of Food Chain Pathway Parameters in Biosphere Models, which was established to assess and evaluate a number of key parameters used in the food-chain models used in performance assessments of radioactive waste disposal facilities. Section 2 of this report describes activities undertaken to collect samples of soils from three regions of the United States, the Southeast, Northwest, and Southwest, and perform analyses to characterize their physical and chemical properties. Section 3 summarizes information gathered regarding agricultural practices and common and unusual crops grown in each of these three areas. Section 4 describes progress in studying radionuclide uptake in several representative crops from the three soil types in controlled laboratory conditions. Section 5 describes a range of international coordination activities undertaken by Project staff in order to support the underlying data needs of the Project. Section 6 provides a very brief summary of the status of the GENII Version 2 computer program, which is a “client” of the types of data being generated by the Project, and for which the Project will be providing training to the US NRC staff in the coming Fiscal Year. Several appendices provide additional supporting information.

  6. 40 years of Bio-Psycho-Social model: what’s new?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kholmogorova A.B.

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Bio-Psycho-Social Model, proposed by George Engel in 1977, was recognized as a turning point in the praxis of medical diagnosis and treatments. Bio-Psycho-Social Model should be seen in a historical context as bucking against the trend of biological reductionism. Social Neuroscience has been formed ten years. Social neuroscience aims to investigate the biological systems that underlie people’s thoughts, feelings and actions in light of the social context in which they operate. Social neuroscience has captured the interest of anthropologists, psychiatrists, psychologists, and experts in other disciplines, as well as the general public who more and more draw upon the insights and methods of social neuroscience to explain, predict and change social behavior. An analysis of the current situation in neurosciences shows that new methods of instrumental brain research do not exclude biological reductionism. The authors qualify the situation in modern studies of social neuroscience as a methodological crisis associated with the prevalence of reductionist approaches that ignore the uniqueness of the human psyche. He substantiates the heuristic provisions of the cultural and historical development of Vygotsky’s psyche theory to overcome any contradictions

  7. Normative personality trait development in adulthood: A 6-year cohort-sequential growth model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milojev, Petar; Sibley, Chris G

    2017-03-01

    The present study investigated patterns of normative change in personality traits across the adult life span (19 through 74 years of age). We examined change in extraversion, agreeableness, conscientiousness, neuroticism, openness to experience and honesty-humility using data from the first 6 annual waves of the New Zealand Attitudes and Values Study (N = 10,416; 61.1% female, average age = 49.46). We present a cohort-sequential latent growth model assessing patterns of mean-level change due to both aging and cohort effects. Extraversion decreased as people aged, with the most pronounced declines occurring in young adulthood, and then again in old age. Agreeableness, indexed with a measure focusing on empathy, decreased in young adulthood and remained relatively unchanged thereafter. Conscientiousness increased among young adults then leveled off and remained fairly consistent for the rest of the adult life span. Neuroticism and openness to experience decreased as people aged. However, the models suggest that these latter effects may also be partially due to cohort differences, as older people showed lower levels of neuroticism and openness to experience more generally. Honesty-humility showed a pronounced and consistent increase across the adult life span. These analyses of large-scale longitudinal national probability panel data indicate that different dimensions of personality follow distinct developmental processes throughout adulthood. Our findings also highlight the importance of young adulthood (up to about the age of 30) in personality trait development, as well as continuing change throughout the adult life span. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  8. Future Economics of Liver Transplantation: A 20-Year Cost Modeling Forecast and the Prospect of Bioengineering Autologous Liver Grafts.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dany Habka

    Full Text Available During the past 20 years liver transplantation has become the definitive treatment for most severe types of liver failure and hepatocellular carcinoma, in both children and adults. In the U.S., roughly 16,000 individuals are on the liver transplant waiting list. Only 38% of them will receive a transplant due to the organ shortage. This paper explores another option: bioengineering an autologous liver graft. We developed a 20-year model projecting future demand for liver transplants, along with costs based on current technology. We compared these cost projections against projected costs to bioengineer autologous liver grafts. The model was divided into: 1 the epidemiology model forecasting the number of wait-listed patients, operated patients and postoperative patients; and 2 the treatment model forecasting costs (pre-transplant-related costs; transplant (admission-related costs; and 10-year post-transplant-related costs during the simulation period. The patient population was categorized using the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score. The number of patients on the waiting list was projected to increase 23% over 20 years while the weighted average treatment costs in the pre-liver transplantation phase were forecast to increase 83% in Year 20. Projected demand for livers will increase 10% in 10 years and 23% in 20 years. Total costs of liver transplantation are forecast to increase 33% in 10 years and 81% in 20 years. By comparison, the projected cost to bioengineer autologous liver grafts is $9.7M based on current catalog prices for iPS-derived liver cells. The model projects a persistent increase in need and cost of donor livers over the next 20 years that's constrained by a limited supply of donor livers. The number of patients who die while on the waiting list will reflect this ever-growing disparity. Currently, bioengineering autologous liver grafts is cost prohibitive. However, costs will decline rapidly with the introduction of new

  9. The Influence of Different Models on 15-years-old Students' Understanding of the Solid State of Matter.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Devetak, Iztok; Hajzeri, Metka; Glažar, Saša Aleksij; Vogrinc, Janez

    2010-12-01

    Different models are an indispensable part of teaching and learning chemistry for students to develop adequate mental models of solid states of matter. The aim of this study was to establish the importance of using physical models (teachers' demonstrations and students' modelling) and virtual models of solid states in the educational process for students' to acquire a better understanding of the crystal structures of substances. First year grammar school students (average age 15.4 years) participated in the study. All students were divided into three groups, depending on what sort of activity involving models was used in the chemistry teaching and learning process. The solid state of matter was taught in the first group by students' constructing physical models. In the second group virtual models were used, while the third group was taught by teachers' demonstration of physical models. Students' understanding of the solid state structures was assessed with a knowledge test after the educational strategy, whereas the knowledge retention was evaluated one month following the applications of the teaching strategies with the delayed test. The students who modelled physical models scored better on the test than did the students who used virtual models and also those who were taught the solid state of matter by the teachers' demonstration of physical models. Those students who used virtual models or modelling during chemistry learning achieved statistically the same results on the delayed test, whereas the students who were exposed to the teachers' model demonstration achieved the lowest test score. It can be concluded that students who are engaged in active learning strategies that include modelling or computer interaction using virtual models develop more adequate mental models of solid state substance structures.

  10. Measured and modelled trends in European mountain lakes: results of fifteen years of cooperative studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michela ROGORA

    2004-02-01

    Full Text Available Papers included in this Special Issue of the Journal of Limnology present results of long-term ecological research on mountain lakes throughout Europe. Most of these studies were performed over the last 15 years in the framework of some EU-funded projects, namely AL:PE 1 and 2, MOLAR and EMERGE. These projects together considered a high number of remote lakes in different areas or lake districts in Europe. Central to the projects was the idea that mountain lakes, while subject to the same chemical and biological processes controlling lowland lakes, are more sensitive to any input from their surroundings and can be used as earlywarning indicators of atmospheric pollution and climate change. A first section of this special issue deal with the results of long-term monitoring programmes at selected key-sites. A second section focuse on site-specific and regional applications of an acidification model designed to reconstruct and predict long-term changes in the chemistry of mountain lakes.

  11. [Establish Assessment Model of 18 Years of Age in Chinese Han Population by Mandibular Third Molar].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Fei; Dai, Xin-hua; Wang, Liang; Li, Yuan; Zhang, Kui; Deng, Zhen-hua

    2016-02-01

    To explore the value of estimating chronologic age based on the grades of mandibular third molar development. To evaluate whether mandibular third molar could be used as an indicator for estimating the age under or over 18 years. The mineralization status of mandibular third molar of 1 845 individuals aged 10 - 30 was graded and marked based on Demirjian's classification of grades reformed by Orhan. Gender difference was examined by t-test. A cubic regression model was established to analyze the correlation between third molar and chronologic age. Each grade of age cumulative distribution diagram and ROC curve was respectively performed to evaluate the relationship between third molar and the age of 18. Using Bayes discriminant analysis, an equation was established for estimating the age of 18. The inner-rater reliability was 0.903. Statistical analysis showed a moderate correlation between age and grade. Significant differences of both genders were found only in grade D and H (P Third molar development shows a high correlation with age, and combined with other indicators, it can be used to estimate the age of 18.

  12. Two-Year Community: A 3+8 Model of Undergraduate Research for Community College STEM Majors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leggett-Robinson, Pamela M.; Villa, Brandi C.; Mooring, Suazette Reid

    2015-01-01

    This article describes the implementation of an innovative undergraduate research model for students attending a two-year institution. It gives students an opportunity to engage in undergraduate research at nearby four-year institutions, which provides a foundation that allows them to successfully make the transition to STEM programs at the…

  13. [25 years of organized ambulatory heart sport in Luxembourg. The development of a sustained rehabilitation model].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delagardelle, Charles; Feiereisen, Patrick

    2011-01-01

    underlying atherosclerotic processes, thereby reducing morbidity and mortality". The responsible ESC cardiologists agree with the international community that fighting CVD risk factors is at least as important as the whole arsenal of modern heart surgery and interventional cardiology. The core activity of ambulatory heart sport groups remains physical activity, and nowadays 6 different activities can be offered (one activity each day of the week): exercise lesson, swimming, walking, cycling, Nordic Walking and water gymnastics On the other hand comprehensive prevention programs, especially concerning CVD risk factors are also endorsed by the ambulatory heart sport groups of Luxembourg via regular meetings, conferences, brochures and symposia. One advantage of the ambulatory heart sport movement in Luxembourg, in contrast to the German model, is the direct financial allowance of the health ministry, which permits a lifelong activity to all the active members. Another advantage is that all the regional groups are directed by clinical cardiologists knowing the patients very closely. One weak point is that only about 5-10% of all potential candidates adhere to the ambulatory heart sport groups but nearly 50% of the active members are practicing for more than 5 years. These regularly active patients are a positive selection of well committed cardiac patients who, most of the time, control CVD risk factors with scrutiny. The ESC has recommended creating so called "Heart Houses" where all the aspects of comprehensive prevention and rehabilitation can be offered. Their main concern is to develop a sustained strategy which is desperately missing for the moment. A lot of the active members of the heart sport groups of Luxembourg achieve such a sustained activity and, therefore, these heart sport groups can be considered as very cost effective models of sustained rehabilitation. After a 25 years activity the ambulatory heart sport movement of Luxemburg has reached the outstanding goal

  14. An evaluation of the hardwood regeneration model (REGEN) 16 years post-harvest of a regenerated stand in East Tennessee

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wayne K. Clatterbuck

    2015-01-01

    The REGEN model (developed by USDA Forest Service, Southern Research Station, Bent Creek Experimental Forest) was used prior to harvest to predict species composition of hardwoods at crown closure. This study evaluates whether the predictive ability of the model was effective by using post-harvest information after 16 years. Regeneration data were collected prior to...

  15. Hydrogeochemical transport modeling of 24 years of Rhine water infiltration in the dunes of the Amsterdam Water Supply.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Breukelen, B.M.; Appelo, C.A.J.; Olsthoorn, T.N.

    1998-01-01

    Water quality changes were modelled along a flowpath in a plume of artificially recharged, pretreated Rhine water in the dunes of the Amsterdam Water Supply, after 24 years of infiltration. The hydrogeochemical transport model PHREEQC was extended with dispersion/diffusion and kinetics for selected

  16. A global model of mantle conductivity derived from 5 years of CHAMP, Orsted, and SAC-C magnetic data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kuvshinov, A.; Olsen, Nils

    2006-01-01

    We present a global 1-D conductivity model which is obtained by analysis of five years ( 2001 - 2005) of simultaneous magnetic data from the three satellites Orsted, CHAMP and SAC-C. After removal of core and crustal fields as predicted by a recent field model we used non-polar scalar and vector...

  17. Use of the FAR Guide to Present a Pedagogical Analogical Model of Gel Electrophoresis in Year 10 Science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, James

    2013-01-01

    This paper is a qualitative, practice based study describing the use of the Focus-Action-Reflection (FAR) Guide (Harrison & Treagust, 2000) to address the shortcomings of a pedagogical analogical model in Year 10 Science. The aim of this paper is to present my experience of the FAR Guide in relation to an analogical model that gave rise to…

  18. Paper for Publication in IOP: Conference Series Leachate Treatment using three Years Aged Lysimetric Bioreactor Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartono, Djoko M.; Andari Kristanto, Gabriel; Gusniani Sofian, Irma; Fauzan, Ahmad; Mahdiana, Ghanis

    2018-03-01

    This study was conducted as a response to address the problem of land availability for Cipayung landfill that no longer able to accommodate waste generation Depok City and to protect water pollution in receiving water body. Law No. 8/2008 explained that local governments and cities are required to create a sanitary landfill as a final waste processing system to replace open dumping that had been done by almost all the final processing of waste in cities in Indonesia. Sanitary landfill is the final waste processing system that works best and is environmentally friendly. The sanitary landfill will generate leachate. Leachate is the result of precipitation, evaporation, surface runoff, water infiltration into the waste, and also including the water contained in the waste. The purpose of this study was to determine the utilization of leachate generated by three years aged reactor.This study use a modeling tools as bioreactor landfill tank or so called lysimetric, that made of the polymer material that susceptible to high heat and pressure. This bioreactor landfill tank has a diameter of 0.83 m, with a surface area of 0.54 m2 and a height of 2.02 m, with the examination duration of 115 days. This tank consists of several layer, such as sand layer, solid waste layer, water layer and piping system. These layer has 3 year aged. The In this research, leachate recirculation in bioreactor landfills was conducted with waste layered loading systems with percolation system. This research has been conducted since the beginning of 2016, sampling, field measurement and analysis of leachate and waste quality carried out for approximately 115 days of field measurements.Several parameter were measured such as pH, BOD, COD, nitrate, nitrite and TSS. From the analysis of the leachate quality parameters of pH, BOD, COD, nitrite, TSS, showed a reduction in the concentration of the three reactors. The concentration of parameters measured at the initial stage until the final stage, showed a

  19. Assessing allometric models to predict vegetative growth of mango (Mangifera indica; Anacardiaceae) at the current-year branch scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Normand, Frédéric; Lauri, Pierre-Éric

    2012-03-01

    Accurate and reliable predictive models are necessary to estimate nondestructively key variables for plant growth studies such as leaf area and leaf, stem, and total biomass. Predictive models are lacking at the current-year branch scale despite the importance of this scale in plant science. We calibrated allometric models to estimate leaf area and stem and branch (leaves + stem) mass of current-year branches, i.e., branches several months old studied at the end of the vegetative growth season, of four mango cultivars on the basis of their basal cross-sectional area. The effects of year, site, and cultivar were tested. Models were validated with independent data and prediction accuracy was evaluated with the appropriate statistics. Models revealed a positive allometry between dependent and independent variables, whose y-intercept but not the slope, was affected by the cultivar. The effects of year and site were negligible. For each branch characteristic, cultivar-specific models were more accurate than common models built with pooled data from the four cultivars. Prediction quality was satisfactory but with data dispersion around the models, particularly for large values. Leaf area and stem and branch mass of mango current-year branches could be satisfactorily estimated on the basis of branch basal cross-sectional area with cultivar-specific allometric models. The results suggested that, in addition to the heteroscedastic behavior of the variables studied, model accuracy was probably related to the functional plasticity of branches in relation to the light environment and/or to the number of growth units composing the branches.

  20. Real-world emissions from model year 1993, 2000, and 2010 passenger cars

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ross, M.; Goodwin, R.; Watkins, R. [and others

    1995-11-01

    Air pollution by cars and light trucks is a major problem in metropolitan areas in the United States and around the world. Much of the discussion of this issue is based on the emissions per vehicle mile as determined under somewhat artificial testing conditions. The pollutants actually emitted vary considerably with the particular vehicle and the way it is driven, but the average emissions per mile are much higher than the test values. This report concerns the sources and levels of excess emissions, and the potential for reducing them. The history of automotive emissions regulation reveals remarkable success in reducing the emissions of carbon monoxide (CO), hydrocarbons (HC) and oxides of nitrogen (NO{sub x}) from new automobiles - as measured in certification tests. The grams-per-mile (g/mile) standards for these tests are stringent, with 96% reductions mandated in comparison to the estimated pre-control (mid-1960s) levels for CO and HC; and 75% reductions mandated for NO{sub x}. Powerful new technologies have been developed and incorporated into every new vehicle in order to accomplish these reductions. Most noteworthy are the catalytic converter and closed-loop engine controls; the latter includes sensors before and after the engine proper, and computer analysis of the information leading to real-time control of fuel injection, with the principal objective of maintaining just the right chemical balance of fuel and air. The average lifetime real-world g/mile emissions associated with conventional gasoline fueled cars for model years 1993, 2000, and 2010 have been projected. Results are discussed.

  1. A Multi-Year Ammunition Procurement Model for Department of the Navy Non-Nuclear Ordnance

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Bruggeman, John

    2003-01-01

    ... model that is then optimized to mimic perfect manual planning, introduces a metric for quantifying the capability provided by a given inventory of a munition, and introduces the Assessment and Investment Model (AIM...

  2. Near-peer role modeling: Can fourth-year medical students, recognized for their humanism, enhance reflection among second-year students in a physical diagnosis course?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mimi McEvoy

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Humanism is cultivated through reflection and self-awareness. We aimed to employ fourth-year medical students, recognized for their humanism, to facilitate reflective sessions for second-year medical students with the intention of positively influencing reflective process toward humanistic development. Methods/Analysis: A total of 186 students were randomly assigned to one of three comparison arms: eight groups of eight students (64 students were facilitated by a fourth-year student who was a Gold Humanism Honor Society member (GHHS; eight groups (64 students by a volunteer non-GHHS student; and seven groups (58 students were non-facilitated. Before sessions, second-year students set learning goals concerning interactions with patients; fourth-year students received training materials on facilitation. Groups met twice during their 10 clinical site visits. At the last session, students completed a reflective assignment on their goal progress. Comparative mixed method analyses were conducted among the three comparison arms on reflection (reflective score on in-session assignment and session satisfaction (survey in addition to a thematic analysis of responses on the in-session assignment. Results: We found significant differences among all three comparison arms on students’ reflective scores (p=0.0003 and satisfaction (p=0.0001. T-tests comparing GHHS- and non-GHHS-facilitated groups showed significantly higher mean reflective scores for GHHS-facilitated groups (p=0.033; there were no differences on session satisfaction. Thematic analysis of students’ reflections showed attempts at self-examination, but lacked depth in addressing emotions. There was a common focus on achieving comfort and confidence in clinical skills performance. Discussion/Conclusions: Near peers, recognized for their humanism, demonstrated significant influence in deepening medical students’ reflections surrounding patient interactions or humanistic

  3. Near-peer role modeling: Can fourth-year medical students, recognized for their humanism, enhance reflection among second-year students in a physical diagnosis course?

    Science.gov (United States)

    McEvoy, Mimi; Pollack, Staci; Dyche, Lawrence; Burton, William

    2016-01-01

    Introduction Humanism is cultivated through reflection and self-awareness. We aimed to employ fourth-year medical students, recognized for their humanism, to facilitate reflective sessions for second-year medical students with the intention of positively influencing reflective process toward humanistic development. Methods/Analysis A total of 186 students were randomly assigned to one of three comparison arms: eight groups of eight students (64 students) were facilitated by a fourth-year student who was a Gold Humanism Honor Society member (GHHS); eight groups (64 students) by a volunteer non-GHHS student; and seven groups (58 students) were non-facilitated. Before sessions, second-year students set learning goals concerning interactions with patients; fourth-year students received training materials on facilitation. Groups met twice during their 10 clinical site visits. At the last session, students completed a reflective assignment on their goal progress. Comparative mixed method analyses were conducted among the three comparison arms on reflection (reflective score on in-session assignment) and session satisfaction (survey) in addition to a thematic analysis of responses on the in-session assignment. Results We found significant differences among all three comparison arms on students' reflective scores (p=0.0003) and satisfaction (p=0.0001). T-tests comparing GHHS- and non-GHHS-facilitated groups showed significantly higher mean reflective scores for GHHS-facilitated groups (p=0.033); there were no differences on session satisfaction. Thematic analysis of students' reflections showed attempts at self-examination, but lacked depth in addressing emotions. There was a common focus on achieving comfort and confidence in clinical skills performance. Discussion/Conclusions Near peers, recognized for their humanism, demonstrated significant influence in deepening medical students' reflections surrounding patient interactions or humanistic development. Overall, students

  4. The gravity model specification for modeling international trade flows and free trade agreement effects: a 10-year review of empirical studies

    OpenAIRE

    Kepaptsoglou, Konstantinos; Karlaftis, Matthew G.; Tsamboulas, Dimitrios

    2010-01-01

    The gravity model has been extensively used in international trade research for the last 40 years because of its considerable empirical robustness and explanatory power. Since their introduction in the 1960's, gravity models have been used for assessing trade policy implications and, particularly recently, for analyzing the effects of Free Trade Agreements on international trade. The objective of this paper is to review the recent empirical literature on gravity models, highlight best practic...

  5. Microscopic Car Modeling for Intelligent Traffic and Scenario Generation in the UCF Driving Simulator : Year 2

    Science.gov (United States)

    2000-01-01

    A multi-year project was initiated to introduce autonomous vehicles in the University of Central Florida (UCF) Driving Simulator for real-time interaction with the simulator vehicle. This report describes the progress during the second year. In the f...

  6. A simple model for 100 K-year oscillations in glaciation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindzen, R. S.

    1986-01-01

    A simple climatic model which produces glaciation cycles of 100 K periods in response to forcing by 20 K, 40 K, and 100 K periods is described. The model is based on Milankovitch's (1930) hypothesis that glaciation fluctuations are forced by orbital variation and the associated change in insolation. The sea ice/snow cover line for the model, and the relation between heat variations and the ice/snow line are analyzed. The sea ice/snow cover line for the model is between the pole and 53 deg latitude and the line's position is the forcing for the glaciation cycle. Examples of the model's response to forcing are presented and evaluated. The negative glaciation permitted by the model is studied. The role of CO2 feedback in the glaciation cycle is investigated.

  7. Development and external validation of a risk-prediction model to predict 5-year overall survival in advanced larynx cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petersen, Japke F; Stuiver, Martijn M; Timmermans, Adriana J; Chen, Amy; Zhang, Hongzhen; O'Neill, James P; Deady, Sandra; Vander Poorten, Vincent; Meulemans, Jeroen; Wennerberg, Johan; Skroder, Carl; Day, Andrew T; Koch, Wayne; van den Brekel, Michiel W M

    2018-05-01

    TNM-classification inadequately estimates patient-specific overall survival (OS). We aimed to improve this by developing a risk-prediction model for patients with advanced larynx cancer. Cohort study. We developed a risk prediction model to estimate the 5-year OS rate based on a cohort of 3,442 patients with T3T4N0N+M0 larynx cancer. The model was internally validated using bootstrapping samples and externally validated on patient data from five external centers (n = 770). The main outcome was performance of the model as tested by discrimination, calibration, and the ability to distinguish risk groups based on tertiles from the derivation dataset. The model performance was compared to a model based on T and N classification only. We included age, gender, T and N classification, and subsite as prognostic variables in the standard model. After external validation, the standard model had a significantly better fit than a model based on T and N classification alone (C statistic, 0.59 vs. 0.55, P model was able to distinguish well among three risk groups based on tertiles of the risk score. Adding treatment modality to the model did not decrease the predictive power. As a post hoc analysis, we tested the added value of comorbidity as scored by American Society of Anesthesiologists score in a subsample, which increased the C statistic to 0.68. A risk prediction model for patients with advanced larynx cancer, consisting of readily available clinical variables, gives more accurate estimations of the estimated 5-year survival rate when compared to a model based on T and N classification alone. 2c. Laryngoscope, 128:1140-1145, 2018. © 2017 The American Laryngological, Rhinological and Otological Society, Inc.

  8. Future Economics of Liver Transplantation: A 20-Year Cost Modeling Forecast and the Prospect of Bioengineering Autologous Liver Grafts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Habka, Dany; Mann, David; Landes, Ronald; Soto-Gutierrez, Alejandro

    2015-01-01

    During the past 20 years liver transplantation has become the definitive treatment for most severe types of liver failure and hepatocellular carcinoma, in both children and adults. In the U.S., roughly 16,000 individuals are on the liver transplant waiting list. Only 38% of them will receive a transplant due to the organ shortage. This paper explores another option: bioengineering an autologous liver graft. We developed a 20-year model projecting future demand for liver transplants, along with costs based on current technology. We compared these cost projections against projected costs to bioengineer autologous liver grafts. The model was divided into: 1) the epidemiology model forecasting the number of wait-listed patients, operated patients and postoperative patients; and 2) the treatment model forecasting costs (pre-transplant-related costs; transplant (admission)-related costs; and 10-year post-transplant-related costs) during the simulation period. The patient population was categorized using the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score. The number of patients on the waiting list was projected to increase 23% over 20 years while the weighted average treatment costs in the pre-liver transplantation phase were forecast to increase 83% in Year 20. Projected demand for livers will increase 10% in 10 years and 23% in 20 years. Total costs of liver transplantation are forecast to increase 33% in 10 years and 81% in 20 years. By comparison, the projected cost to bioengineer autologous liver grafts is $9.7M based on current catalog prices for iPS-derived liver cells. The model projects a persistent increase in need and cost of donor livers over the next 20 years that’s constrained by a limited supply of donor livers. The number of patients who die while on the waiting list will reflect this ever-growing disparity. Currently, bioengineering autologous liver grafts is cost prohibitive. However, costs will decline rapidly with the introduction of new manufacturing

  9. Ad hoc modeling in agronomy: What have we learned in the last 15 years?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Affholder, F.; Tittonell, P.A.; Corbeels, M.; Roux, S.; Motisi, N.; Tixier, P.; Wery, J.

    2012-01-01

    The “Use and Abuse of Crop Simulation Models” special issue of Agronomy Journal published in 1996 ended with the myth of the universal crop model. Sinclair and Seligman consequently recommended tailoring models to specific problems. This paper reviews the fate of the idea of such ad hoc approaches

  10. Modelling the survivorship of Nigeria children in their first 10 years of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Introduction: Several studies have attributed social demographic and environmental characteristics to differentials in children mortality rates worldwide but there is paucity of information on modelling of children survival in Nigeria. In this study we modelled children survival in Nigeria and predicted their chances of survival in ...

  11. The Pieter Schippers story : Almost 40 years of developments in sonar performance modelling in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schippers, P.; Colin, M.E.G.D.; Beerens, S.P.

    2014-01-01

    This paper is dedicated to the work of Pieter Schippers and gives an overview of his achievement in sonar performance modelling over his career. This publication is the last of a long list, many of which published at UDT [1-5]. A historical review is presented of the sonar performance modeling work

  12. Relationship between US Societal Fatality Risk per Vehicle Miles of Travel and Mass, for Individual Vehicle Models over Time (Model Year)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wenzel, Tom P. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Environmental Technologies Area. Building Technology and Urban Systems Division

    2016-07-27

    This report presents a new approach to analyze the relationship between vehicle mass and risk: tracking fatality risk by vehicle model year and mass, for individual vehicle models. This approach is appealing as it greatly minimizes the influence of driver characteristics and behavior, and crash circumstances, on fatality risk. However, only the most popular vehicle models, with the largest number of fatalities, can be analyzed in this manner. While the analysis of all vehicle models of a given type suggests that there is a relationship between increased mass and fatality risk, analysis of the ten most popular four-door car models separately suggests that this relationship is weak: in many cases when the mass of a specific vehicle model is increased societal fatality risk is unchanged or even increases. These results suggest that increasing the mass of an individual vehicle model does not necessarily lead to decreased societal fatality risk.

  13. A Model to Predict Student Failure in the First Year of the Undergraduate Medical Curriculum

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gerard J.A. Baars

    2017-06-01

    Discussion: The earliest moment with the highest specificity to predict student failure in the first-year curriculum seems to be at 6 months. However, additional factors are needed to improve this prediction or to bring forward the predictive moment.

  14. Global climate simulations at 3000-year intervals for the last 21 000 years with the GENMOM coupled atmosphere–ocean model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alder, Jay R.; Hostetler, Steven W.

    2015-01-01

    We apply GENMOM, a coupled atmosphere–ocean climate model, to simulate eight equilibrium time slices at 3000-year intervals for the past 21 000 years forced by changes in Earth–Sun geometry, atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs), continental ice sheets, and sea level. Simulated global cooling during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is 3.8 ◦C and the rate of post-glacial warming is in overall agreement with recently published temperature reconstructions. The greatest rate of warming occurs between 15 and 12 ka (2.4 ◦C over land, 0.7 ◦C over oceans, and 1.4 ◦C globally) in response to changes in radiative forcing from the diminished extent of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) ice sheets and increases in GHGs and NH summer insolation. The modeled LGM and 6 ka temperature and precipitation climatologies are generally consistent with proxy reconstructions, the PMIP2 and PMIP3 simulations, and other paleoclimate data–model analyses. The model does not capture the mid-Holocene “thermal maximum” and gradual cooling to preindustrial (PI) global temperature found in the data. Simulated monsoonal precipitation in North Africa peaks between 12 and 9 ka at values ∼ 50 % greater than those of the PI, and Indian monsoonal precipitation peaks at 12 and 9 ka at values ∼ 45 % greater than the PI. GENMOM captures the reconstructed LGM extent of NH and Southern Hemisphere (SH) sea ice. The simulated present-day Antarctica Circumpolar Current (ACC) is ∼ 48 % weaker than the observed (62 versus 119 Sv). The simulated present-day Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) of 19.3 ± 1.4 Sv on the Bermuda Rise (33◦ N) is comparable with observed value of 18.7 ± 4.8 Sv. AMOC at 33◦ N is reduced by ∼ 15 % during the LGM, and the largest post-glacial increase (∼ 11 %) occurs during the 15 ka time slice.

  15. A Multi-Year Plan for Enhancing Turbulence Modeling in Hydra-TH Revised and Updated Version 2.0

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, Thomas M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Berndt, Markus [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Baglietto, Emilio [Massachusetts Inst. of Technology (MIT), Cambridge, MA (United States); Magolan, Ben [Massachusetts Inst. of Technology (MIT), Cambridge, MA (United States)

    2015-10-01

    The purpose of this report is to document a multi-year plan for enhancing turbulence modeling in Hydra-TH for the Consortium for Advanced Simulation of Light Water Reactors (CASL) program. Hydra-TH is being developed to the meet the high- fidelity, high-Reynolds number CFD based thermal hydraulic simulation needs of the program. This work is being conducted within the thermal hydraulics methods (THM) focus area. This report is an extension of THM CASL milestone L3:THM.CFD.P10.02 [33] (March, 2015) and picks up where it left off. It will also serve to meet the requirements of CASL THM level three milestone, L3:THM.CFD.P11.04, scheduled for completion September 30, 2015. The objectives of this plan will be met by: maturation of recently added turbulence models, strategic design/development of new models and systematic and rigorous testing of existing and new models and model extensions. While multi-phase turbulent flow simulations are important to the program, only single-phase modeling will be considered in this report. Large Eddy Simulation (LES) is also an important modeling methodology. However, at least in the first year, the focus is on steady-state Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) turbulence modeling.

  16. Cardiovascular medication changes over 5 years in a national data linkage study: implications for risk prediction models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mehta S

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Suneela Mehta,1 Rod Jackson,1 Sue Wells,1 Jeff Harrison,2 Daniel J Exeter,1 Andrew J Kerr1,3 1Section of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, 2School of Pharmacy, University of Auckland, 3Cardiology Services, Middlemore Hospital, Auckland, New Zealand Background: Despite widespread use of cardiovascular disease (CVD preventive medications in cohorts used to develop CVD risk prediction models, only some incorporate baseline CVD pharmacotherapy and none account for treatment changes during study follow-up. Therefore, current risk prediction scores may underestimate the true CVD event risk. We examined changes in CVD pharmacotherapy over 5 years in preparation for developing new 5-year risk prediction models.Methods: Anonymized individual-level linkage of eight national administrative health datasets enabled identification of all New Zealanders aged 30–74 years, without prior hospitalization for CVD or heart failure, who utilized publicly funded health services during 2006. We determined proportions of participants dispensed blood pressure lowering, lipid lowering, and antiplatelet/anticoagulant pharmacotherapy at baseline in 2006, and the proportion of person years of follow-up (2007–2011 where dispensing occurred.Results: The study population comprised of 1,766,584 individuals, representing ~85% of all New Zealanders aged 30–74 years without prior CVD or heart failure in 2006, with mean follow-up of 4.9 years (standard deviation 0.6 years; 8,589,931 total person years. CVD medications were dispensed to 21% of people at baseline, with most single or combination pharmacotherapies continuing for ≥80% of follow-up. Complete discontinuation of baseline treatment accounted for 2% of follow-up time while CVD pharmacotherapy that commenced after baseline accounted for 7% of total follow-up time. Conclusion: In a national primary prevention cohort of 30–74 year olds, one in five received baseline CVD primary preventive pharmacotherapy and medication

  17. PDEAR model prediction of Protea species in years 2070-2100

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Danni; Guo, Renkuan; Midgley, Guy F.; Rebelo, A. G.

    2009-10-01

    Global warming and climate changes are changing the environment and therefore changing the distribution and behaviour of the plant species. Plant species often move and change their distributions as they find their original habitats are no longer suitable to their needs. It is therefore important to establish a statistical model to catch up the movement and patterns of the endangered species in order to effectively manage environmental protection under the inevitable biodiversity changes that are taking place. In this paper, we are focusing on the population category of rare Proteas that has an estimated population size from 1 to 10 per sample site, which is very small. We used the partial differential equation associated regression (PDEAR) model, which merges the partial differential equation theory, (statistical) linear model theory and random fuzzy variable theory together into a efficient small-sample oriented model, for the spatial pattern changing analysis. The regression component in a PDEAR model is in nature a special random fuzzy multivariate regression model. We developed a bivariate model for investigating the impacts from rainfall and temperature on the Protea species in average sense in the population size of 1 to 10, in the Cape Floristic Region, from 1992 to 2002, South Africa. Under same the average biodiversity structure assumptions, we explore the future spatial change patterns of Protea species in the population size of 1 to 10 with future (average) predicted rainfall and temperature. The spatial distribution and patterns are clearly will help us to explore global climate changing impacts on endangered species.

  18. FMCSA safety program effectiveness measurement : Roadside Intervention Effectiveness Model, fiscal year 2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-11-01

    The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA), in cooperation with the John A. Volpe National Transportation Systems Center, has developed an analytic model to measure the effectiveness of roadside inspections and traffic enforcements in te...

  19. FMCSA safety program effectiveness measurement : Roadside Intervention Effectiveness Model, fiscal year 2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-02-01

    The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA), in cooperation with the John A. Volpe National : Transportation Systems Center, has developed an analytic model to measure the effectiveness of roadside : inspections and traffic enforcements i...

  20. FMCSA safety program effectiveness measurement : roadside intervention effectiveness model fiscal year 2011.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-06-01

    The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA), in cooperation with the John A. Volpe National Transportation Systems Center, has developed an analytic model to measure the effectiveness of roadside inspections and traffic enforcements in te...

  1. FMCSA safety program effectiveness measurement : roadside intervention effectiveness model, fiscal year 2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-08-01

    The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA), in cooperation with the John A. Volpe National Transportation Systems Center, has developed an analytic model to measure the effectiveness of roadside inspections and traffic enforcements in te...

  2. The Biopsychosocial Model 25 Years Later: Principles, Practice, and Scientific Inquiry

    OpenAIRE

    Borrell-Carrió, Francesc; Suchman, Anthony L.; Epstein, Ronald M.

    2004-01-01

    The biopsychosocial model is both a philosophy of clinical care and a practical clinical guide. Philosophically, it is a way of understanding how suffering, disease, and illness are affected by multiple levels of organization, from the societal to the molecular. At the practical level, it is a way of understanding the patient’s subjective experience as an essential contributor to accurate diagnosis, health outcomes, and humane care. In this article, we defend the biopsychosocial model as a ne...

  3. Space Weather Forecasting at NOAA with Michigan's Geospace Model: Results from the First Year in Real-Time Operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cash, M. D.; Singer, H. J.; Millward, G. H.; Balch, C. C.; Toth, G.; Welling, D. T.

    2017-12-01

    In October 2016, the first version of the Geospace model was transitioned into real-time operations at NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). The Geospace model is a part of the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) developed at the University of Michigan, and the model simulates the full time-dependent 3D Geospace environment (Earth's magnetosphere, ring current and ionosphere) and predicts global space weather parameters such as induced magnetic perturbations in space and on Earth's surface. The current version of the Geospace model uses three coupled components of SWMF: the BATS-R-US global magnetosphere model, the Rice Convection Model (RCM) of the inner magnetosphere, and the Ridley Ionosphere electrodynamics Model (RIM). In the operational mode, SWMF/Geospace runs continually in real-time as long as there is new solar wind data arriving from a satellite at L1, either DSCOVR or ACE. We present an analysis of the overall performance of the Geospace model during the first year of real-time operations. Evaluation metrics include Kp, Dst, as well as regional magnetometer stations. We will also present initial results from new products, such as the AE index, available with the recent upgrade to the Geospace model.

  4. 77 FR 2028 - 2017 and Later Model Year Light-Duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Corporate Average Fuel...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-13

    .../otaq/climate/regulations.htm or by searching the public dockets (NHTSA-2010-0131 (for the proposed rule... EPA's Web site at http://www.epa.gov/otaq/climate/regulations.htm . NHTSA and EPA will consider all... vehicles for model years 2017-2025. On May 21, 2010, President Obama issued a Presidential Memorandum...

  5. An Evaluation of the Model School Division (MSD) Preschool Program for the School Year 1973-74.

    Science.gov (United States)

    District of Columbia Public Schools, Washington, DC. Dept. of Research and Evaluation.

    This study was designed to assess the extent to which children served by the Model Schools Division Preschool Program developed socially, intellectually, physically and emotionally during the 1973-74 school year. This evaluation was also designed to measure the appropriateness of the learning environment and the amount of services provided by the…

  6. Computer simulation model for the striped bass young-of-the-year population in the Hudson River

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eraslan, A.H.; Van Winkle, W.; Sharp, R.D.; Christensen, S.W.; Goodyear, C.P.; Rush, R.M.; Fulkerson, W.

    1975-09-01

    This report presents a daily transient (tidal-averaged), longitudinally one-dimensional (cross-section-averaged) computer simulation model for the assessment of the entrainment and impingement impacts of power plant operations on young-of-the-year populations of the striped bass, Morone saxatilis, in the Hudson River

  7. 40 CFR 1039.101 - What exhaust emission standards must my engines meet after the 2014 model year?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ...-cooled, direct injection engines below 8 kW to an optional Tier 4 PM standard of 0.60 g/kW-hr. The term... my engines meet after the 2014 model year? 1039.101 Section 1039.101 Protection of Environment... NONROAD COMPRESSION-IGNITION ENGINES Emission Standards and Related Requirements § 1039.101 What exhaust...

  8. Long-term exposure models for traffic related NO 2 across geographically diverse areas over separate years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sally Liu, L.-J.; Tsai, Ming-Yi; Keidel, Dirk; Gemperli, Armin; Ineichen, Alex; Hazenkamp-von Arx, Marianne; Bayer-Oglesby, Lucy; Rochat, Thierry; Künzli, Nino; Ackermann-Liebrich, Ursula; Straehl, Peter; Schwartz, Joel; Schindler, Christian

    2012-01-01

    Although recent air pollution epidemiologic studies have embraced land-use regression models for estimating outdoor traffic exposure, few have examined the spatio-temporal variability of traffic related pollution over a long term period and the optimal methods to take these factors into account for exposure estimates. We used home outdoor NO 2 measurements taken from eight geographically diverse areas to examine spatio-temporal variations, construct, and evaluate models that could best predict the within-city contrasts in observations. Passive NO 2 measurements were taken outside of up to 100 residences per area over three seasons in 1993 and 2003 as part of the Swiss cohort study on air pollution and lung and heart disease in adults (SAPALDIA). The spatio-temporal variation of NO 2 differed by area and year. Regression models constructed using the annual NO 2 means from central monitoring stations and geographic parameters predicted home outdoor NO 2 levels better than a dispersion model. However, both the regression and dispersion models underestimated the within-city contrasts of NO 2 levels. Our results indicated that the best models should be constructed for individual areas and years, and would use the dispersion estimates as the urban background, geographic information system (GIS) parameters to enhance local characteristics, and temporal and meteorological variables to capture changing local dynamics. Such models would be powerful tools for assessing health effects from long-term exposure to air pollution in a large cohort.

  9. The Swarm Initial Field Model – a Model of the Earth’s Magnetic Field for 2014 Determined From One Year of Swarm Satellite Constellation Data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Nils; Hulot, Gauthier; Lesur, Vincent

    Almost one year of data from ESA's Swarm constellation mission are used to derive a model of the Earth’s magnetic field and its time variation (secular variation). The model describes contributions from the core and lithosphere as well as large-scale contributions from the magnetosphere (and its......) frame. In addition to the magnetic field observations provided by each of the three Swarm satellites we include the East-west magnetic gradient information provided by the lower Swarm satellite pair, thereby explicitly taking advantage of the constellation aspect of Swarm. We assess the spatial...... and temporal model resolution that can be obtained from one year of Swarm satellite data by comparison with other recent models that also include non-Swarm magnetic observations....

  10. Beautiful Models: 70 Years of Exactly Solved Quantum Many-Body Problems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Batchelor, M T [Department of Theoretical Physics, RSPSE and Department of Mathematics, MSI, Australian National University, Canberra ACT 0200 (Australia)

    2005-04-08

    A key element of theoretical physics is the conceptualisation of physical phenomena in terms of models, which are then investigated by the tools at hand. For quantum many-body systems, some models can be exactly solved, i.e., their physical properties can be calculated in an exact fashion. There is often a deep underlying reason why this can be done-the theory of integrability-which manifests itself in many guises. In Beautiful models, Bill Sutherland looks at exactly solved models in quantum many-body systems, a well established field dating back to Bethe's 1931 exact solution of the spin-1/2 Heisenberg chain. This field is enjoying a renaissance due to the ongoing and striking experimental advances in low-dimensional quantum physics, which includes the manufacture of quasi one-dimensional quantum gases. Apart from the intrinsic beauty of the subject material, Beautiful Models is written by a pioneering master of the field. Sutherland has aimed to provide a broad textbook style introduction to the subject for graduate students and interested non-experts. An important point here is the 'language' of the book. In Sutherland's words, the subject of exactly solved models 'belongs to the realm of mathematical physics-too mathematical to be 'respectable' physics, yet not rigorous enough to be 'real' mathematics. ...there are perennial attempts to translate this body of work into either respectable physics or real mathematics; this is not that sort of book.' Rather, Sutherland discusses the models and their solutions in terms of their 'intrinisic' language, which is largely as found in the physics literature. The book begins with a helpful overview of the contents and then moves on to the foundation material, which is the chapter on integrability and non-diffraction. As is shown, these two concepts go hand in hand. The topics covered in later chapters include models with {delta}-function potentials, the

  11. Beautiful Models: 70 Years of Exactly Solved Quantum Many-Body Problems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Batchelor, M T

    2005-01-01

    A key element of theoretical physics is the conceptualisation of physical phenomena in terms of models, which are then investigated by the tools at hand. For quantum many-body systems, some models can be exactly solved, i.e., their physical properties can be calculated in an exact fashion. There is often a deep underlying reason why this can be done-the theory of integrability-which manifests itself in many guises. In Beautiful models, Bill Sutherland looks at exactly solved models in quantum many-body systems, a well established field dating back to Bethe's 1931 exact solution of the spin-1/2 Heisenberg chain. This field is enjoying a renaissance due to the ongoing and striking experimental advances in low-dimensional quantum physics, which includes the manufacture of quasi one-dimensional quantum gases. Apart from the intrinsic beauty of the subject material, Beautiful Models is written by a pioneering master of the field. Sutherland has aimed to provide a broad textbook style introduction to the subject for graduate students and interested non-experts. An important point here is the 'language' of the book. In Sutherland's words, the subject of exactly solved models 'belongs to the realm of mathematical physics-too mathematical to be 'respectable' physics, yet not rigorous enough to be 'real' mathematics. ...there are perennial attempts to translate this body of work into either respectable physics or real mathematics; this is not that sort of book.' Rather, Sutherland discusses the models and their solutions in terms of their 'intrinisic' language, which is largely as found in the physics literature. The book begins with a helpful overview of the contents and then moves on to the foundation material, which is the chapter on integrability and non-diffraction. As is shown, these two concepts go hand in hand. The topics covered in later chapters include models with δ-function potentials, the Heisenberg spin chain, the Hubbard model, exchange models, the Calogero

  12. Cause-Effect Analysis: Improvement of a First Year Engineering Students' Calculus Teaching Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Hoff, Quay; Harding, Ansie

    2017-01-01

    This study focuses on the mathematics department at a South African university and in particular on teaching of calculus to first year engineering students. The paper reports on a cause-effect analysis, often used for business improvement. The cause-effect analysis indicates that there are many factors that impact on secondary school teaching of…

  13. Catastrophe modelling: deriving the 1-in-200 year mortality shock for ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper investigates catastrophe risk for South African life insurers by considering the additional deaths that could arise from a 1-in-200 year mortality shock. Existing South African academic research on catastrophic risk has mostly focused on property losses and the resulting impact on property insurance companies.

  14. Modeling the underlying tobacco smoking predictors among 1st year university students in Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Hassan Sahebihagh

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: There are scant studies on the prevalence and determinants of tobacco smoking among 1st year university students in Iran. We aim to determine the prevalence of substance abuse and identify factors related with tobacco smoking in 1st year students of Qazvin University of Medical Sciences (QUMS. Methods: A self-administered questionnaire was used to collect information on sociodemographic, cigarette smoking, hookah smoking, and related risk factors among 521 1st year students in QUMS between January and February 2014. We used logistic regression to determine factors associated with substance abuse among students. Results: The descriptive statistics indicated that the prevalence of lifetime cigarette and hookah smoking was 8.6% (confidence interval [CI] 95%: 6.5–11.4 and 35.5% (CI 95%: 31.5–39.7, respectively. After adjustment for other factors, being male, the presence of any smoker in the family and having smoker friends were factors associated with cigarette and hookah smoking among students. Our findings also revealed the co-occurrence of risk-taking behaviors among students. Conclusions: Our study showed considerably low prevalence of tobacco smoking among 1st year students. Longitudinal studies are necessary to approve the observed results of this study and thus allow for a certain generalization of the observations.

  15. Geostatistical model-based estimates of schistosomiasis prevalence among individuals aged = 20 years in West Africa

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schur, Nadine; Hürlimann, Eveline; Garba, Amadou

    2011-01-01

    Schistosomiasis is a water-based disease that is believed to affect over 200 million people with an estimated 97% of the infections concentrated in Africa. However, these statistics are largely based on population re-adjusted data originally published by Utroska and colleagues more than 20 years...

  16. Modeling Racial Differences in the Effects of Racial Representation on 2-Year College Student Success

    Science.gov (United States)

    Museus, Samuel D.; Jayakumar, Uma M.; Robinson, Thomas

    2012-01-01

    The failure of many 2-year college students to persist and complete a post-secondary credential or degree remains a problem of paramount importance to higher education policymakers and practitioners. While racial representation--or the extent to which a student's racial group is represented on their respective campus--might be one factor that…

  17. Modelling the survivorship of Nigeria children in their first 10 years of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Fagbamigbe

    high in these periods, the contribution of the probability of dying in the 0-4 years of human life is substantial, ii) impact on the average expectation of life and the art of population growth, iii) sensitivity to environmental and sanitary conditions and iv) usefulness of infant and child mortality as health indicator and living standard ...

  18. A model of Earth’s magnetic field derived from 2 years of Swarm satellite constellation data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Nils; Finlay, Chris; Kotsiaros, Stavros

    2016-01-01

    More than 2 years of magnetic field data taken by the three-satellite constellation mission Swarm are used to derive a model of Earth’s magnetic field and its time variation. This model is called SIFMplus. In addition to the magnetic field observations provided by each of the three Swarm satellites......, explicit advantage is taken of the constellation aspect of Swarm by including East–West magnetic intensity and vector field gradient information from the lower satellite pair. Along-track differences of the magnetic intensity as well as of the vector components provide further information concerning...... dependence for n=7–15, demonstrates the possibility to determine high-quality field models from only 2 years of Swarm data, thanks to the unique constellation aspect of Swarm. To account for the magnetic signature caused by ionospheric electric currents at polar latitudes we co-estimate, together...

  19. The model of the first-year students’ adaptation to vocational training: the example of foreign language

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Galishninkova Elena M.

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper considers the problem of adaptation of the first-year students to professional activity by means of foreign language. To design the adaptation model, we developed four-block questionnaires to determine students’ readiness for adaptation. The experiment resulted in the three groups of students with high, average and low levels of adaptation. Students with low level of adaptation become the target of our research. To remove the difficulties in studying a foreign language by the third group of students, an adaptation model was elaborated. Further, we identified the conditions for the effective implementation of the adaptation model of students to vocational training. In our view, these pedagogical conditions promote a more “sparing” transition of students to their main function as first-year students and increase the level of foreign language learning as well as improve the educational indicators.

  20. Solid waste integrated cost analysis model: 1991 project year report. Part 2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1991-12-31

    The purpose of the City of Houston`s 1991 Solid Waste Integrated Cost Analysis Model (SWICAM) project was to continue the development of a computerized cost analysis model. This model is to provide solid waste managers with tool to evaluate the dollar cost of real or hypothetical solid waste management choices. Those choices have become complicated by the implementation of Subtitle D of the Resources Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) and the EPA`s Integrated Approach to managing municipal solid waste;. that is, minimize generation, maximize recycling, reduce volume (incinerate), and then bury (landfill) only the remainder. Implementation of an integrated solid waste management system involving all or some of the options of recycling, waste to energy, composting, and landfilling is extremely complicated. Factors such as hauling distances, markets, and prices for recyclable, costs and benefits of transfer stations, and material recovery facilities must all be considered. A jurisdiction must determine the cost impacts of implementing a number of various possibilities for managing, handling, processing, and disposing of waste. SWICAM employs a single Lotus 123 spreadsheet to enable a jurisdiction to predict or assess the costs of its waste management system. It allows the user to select his own process flow for waste material and to manipulate the model to include as few or as many options as he or she chooses. The model will calculate the estimated cost for those choices selected. The user can then change the model to include or exclude waste stream components, until the mix of choices suits the user. Graphs can be produced as a visual communication aid in presenting the results of the cost analysis. SWICAM also allows future cost projections to be made.

  1. 49 CFR 526.5 - Earning offsetting monetary credits in future model years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... each planned product action (e.g., new model, mix change) which will affect the average fuel economy of... Act must contain the following information: (a) Projected average fuel economy and production levels for the class of automobiles which may fail to comply with a fuel economy standard and for any other...

  2. 25 Years of DECOVALEX - Research Advances and Lessons Learned from an International Model Comparison Initiative

    Science.gov (United States)

    Birkholzer, J. T.

    2017-12-01

    This presentation provides an overview of an international research and model comparison collaboration (DECOVALEX) for advancing the understanding and modeling of coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical-chemical (THMC) processes in geological systems. Prediction of these coupled effects is an essential part of the performance and safety assessment of geologic disposal systems for radioactive waste and spent nuclear fuel, and is also relevant for a range of other sub-surface engineering activities. DECOVALEX research activities have been supported by a large number of radioactive-waste-management organizations and regulatory authorities. Research teams from more than a dozen international partner organizations have participated in the comparative modeling evaluation of complex field and laboratory experiments in the UK, Switzerland, Japan, France and Sweden. Together, these tasks (1) have addressed a wide range of relevant issues related to engineered and natural system behavior in argillaceous, crystalline and other host rocks, (2) have yielded in-depth knowledge of coupled THM and THMC processes associated with nuclear waste repositories and wider geo-engineering applications, and (3) have advanced the capability, as well as demonstrated the suitability, of numerical simulation models for quantitative analysis.

  3. Modeling suspended sediment discharge from the Waipaoa River system, New Zealand : The last 3000 years

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kettner, A.J.; Gomez, B.; Syvitski, J.P.M.

    2007-01-01

    HydroTrend, a hydrologic-transport model, is used to simulate the water and suspended sediment discharge of the Waipaoa River system over the last 3 Kyr, a time period in which a well-documented sequence of natural events and anthropogenic activities that profoundly impacted drainage basin processes

  4. Black liquor combustion validated recovery boiler modeling: Final year report. Volume 4 (Appendix IV)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Grace, T.M.; Frederick, W.J.; Salcudean, M.; Wessel, R.A.

    1998-08-01

    This project was initiated in October 1990, with the objective of developing and validating a new computer model of a recovery boiler furnace using a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) code specifically tailored to the requirements for solving recovery boiler flows, and using improved submodels for black liquor combustion based on continued laboratory fundamental studies. The key tasks to be accomplished were as follows: (1) Complete the development of enhanced furnace models that have the capability to accurately predict carryover, emissions behavior, dust concentrations, gas temperatures, and wall heat fluxes. (2) Validate the enhanced furnace models, so that users can have confidence in the predicted results. (3) Obtain fundamental information on aerosol formation, deposition, and hardening so as to develop the knowledge base needed to relate furnace model outputs to plugging and fouling in the convective sections of the boiler. (4) Facilitate the transfer of codes, black liquid submodels, and fundamental knowledge to the US kraft pulp industry. Volume 4 contains the following appendix sections: Radiative heat transfer properties for black liquor combustion -- Facilities and techniques and Spectral absorbance and emittance data; and Radiate heat transfer determination of the optical constants of ash samples from kraft recovery boilers -- Calculation procedure; Computation program; Density determination; Particle diameter determination; Optical constant data; and Uncertainty analysis.

  5. Twenty years at the margins: the Herman-Chomsky propaganda model, 1988-2008

    OpenAIRE

    Mullen, Andy

    2008-01-01

    2008 marks the 20th anniversary of the publication of Manufacturing Consent: The Political Economy of the Mass Media by Edward S. Herman and Noam Chomsky. This comment briefly assesses how the Herman-Chomsky Propaganda Model (PM) has been received within the field of media and communication studies in the United Kingdom.

  6. Moving beyond Basic Numeracy: Data Modeling in the Early Years of Schooling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mulligan, Joanne

    2015-01-01

    Recent research has shown that young children are capable of engaging in data modeling and making informed judgments, an aspect of the mathematics curriculum not previously considered integral to early numeracy. In an Australian study, a sample of 21 highly able Grade 1 students was engaged in a series of investigations where they developed their…

  7. Anatomy integration blueprint: A fourth-year musculoskeletal anatomy elective model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lazarus, Michelle D; Kauffman, Gordon L; Kothari, Milind J; Mosher, Timothy J; Silvis, Matthew L; Wawrzyniak, John R; Anderson, Daniel T; Black, Kevin P

    2014-01-01

    Current undergraduate medical school curricular trends focus on both vertical integration of clinical knowledge into the traditionally basic science-dedicated curricula and increasing basic science education in the clinical years. This latter type of integration is more difficult and less reported on than the former. Here, we present an outline of a course wherein the primary learning and teaching objective is to integrate basic science anatomy knowledge with clinical education. The course was developed through collaboration by a multi-specialist course development team (composed of both basic scientists and physicians) and was founded in current adult learning theories. The course was designed to be widely applicable to multiple future specialties, using current published reports regarding the topics and clinical care areas relying heavily on anatomical knowledge regardless of specialist focus. To this end, the course focuses on the role of anatomy in the diagnosis and treatment of frequently encountered musculoskeletal conditions. Our iterative implementation and action research approach to this course development has yielded a curricular template for anatomy integration into clinical years. Key components for successful implementation of these types of courses, including content topic sequence, the faculty development team, learning approaches, and hidden curricula, were developed. We also report preliminary feedback from course stakeholders and lessons learned through the process. The purpose of this report is to enhance the current literature regarding basic science integration in the clinical years of medical school. © 2014 American Association of Anatomists.

  8. Greenland ice sheet surface mass-balance modeling in a 131-year perspective, 1950-2080

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mernild, Sebastian Haugard [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Liston, Glen [COLORADO STATE UNIV.; Hiemstra, Christopher [COLORADO STATE UNIV.; Christensen, Jens [DANISH METEOROLOGICAL INS.

    2009-01-01

    Fluctuations in the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) surface mass-balance (SMB) and freshwater influx to the surrounding oceans closely follow climate fluctuations and are of considerable importance to the global eustatic sea level rise. SnowModel, a state-of-the-art snow-evolution modeling system, was used to simulate variations in the GrIS melt extent, surface water balance components, changes in SMB, and freshwater influx to the ocean. The simulations are based on the IPCC scenario AlB modeled by the HIRHAM4 RCM (using boundary conditions from ECHAM5 AOGCM) from 1950 through 2080. In-situ meteorological station (GC-Net and WMO DMI) observations from inside and outside the GrIS were used to validate and correct RCM output data before it was used as input for SnowModel. Satellite observations and independent SMB studies were used to validate the SnowModel output and confirm the model's robustness. We simulated a {approx}90% increase in end-of-summer surface melt extent (0.483 x 10{sup 6} km{sup 2}) from 1950 to 2080, and a melt index (above 2,000-m elevation) increase of 138% (1.96 x 10{sup 6} km{sup 2} x days). The greatest difference in melt extent occured in the southern part of the GrIS, and the greatest changes in the number of melt days was seen in the eastern part of the GrIS ({approx}50-70%) and was lowest in the west ({approx}20-30%). The rate of SMB loss, largely tied to changes in ablation processes, lead to an enhanced average loss of 331 km{sup 3} from 1950 to 2080, an average 5MB level of -99 km{sup 3} for the period 2070-2080. GrIS surface freshwater runoff yielded an eustatic rise in sea level from 0.8 {+-} 0.1 (1950-1959) to 1.9 {+-} 0.1 mm (2070-2080) sea level equivalent (SLE) y{sup -1}. The accumulated GrIS freshwater runoff contribution from surface melting equaled 160 mm SLE from 1950 through 2080.

  9. A Content Analysis Related to Theses in Environmental Education: The Case of Turkey (2011-2015)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yavuz, Soner

    2016-01-01

    Environmental chemistry has been a research subject for master thesis and doctoral dissertations since the end of 1980s. Because of the wide usage of in literature, it is essential to draw a framework about the subject. For this reason, content analysis is conducted to analyze master thesis and doctoral dissertations about Environmental Education,…

  10. OUTREACH SURGICAL EYE CAMPS IN NORTH AND CENTRAL INDIA 2011-2015- AN EXPERIENCE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vinod Kumar Baranwal

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND We report our experiences of successfully conducting twelve surgical outreach eye camps and suggest protocol and strict allegiance to guidelines for the same, which have been mired in controversy and disrepute repeatedly due to associated blinding complications. MATERIALS AND METHODS Twelve operative eye camps were organised at various locations by the eye departments of two tertiary care hospitals between September 2011 and July 2015. RESULTS A total of 8039 patients were seen in OPDs. The common cases in OPD included refractive error 56.2%, dry eyes 19.9%, allergic conjunctivitis 7.8% and cataract 17.7%. 988 cases were operated for cataract, 5 for glaucoma and 21 for pterygium. 87% cases operated for cataract surgery had grade III and above nuclear sclerosis. 95.4% cases were operated by modern phacoemulsification technique of cataract surgery. Only, 1.5% cases developed complications due to surgery. No case developed postoperative infection. CONCLUSION Owing to the remarkable results, cataract surgery camps are way ahead of other medical discipline in combating the morbidity load of the society. If we follow the standard guidelines, results are always encouraging. It is not correct to stop and ban surgical eye camps for their occasional unexpected bad results. The protocols described by us have been derived on the guidelines of various authorities on the subject and the law of the land and we suggest that these guidelines maybe adopted by others in the endeavour of decreasing blindness from the world.

  11. U.S. Forest Products Annual Market Review and Prospects, 2011-2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    James L. Howard; David B. McKeever

    2015-01-01

    This paper describes the current state of the United States economy and provides general and statistical information on forest products markets in terms of production, trade, consumption, and prices. Market developments are described for sawn softwood, sawn hardwood, softwood log trade, wood-based panels, paper and paperboard, fuelwood, forest product prices, and...

  12. Charted Choices 2011-2015. Effects of nine election platforms on the economy and the environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2010-05-01

    At the request of nine political parties, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis and PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency have mapped out the effects of the respective election platforms on the economy and the environment. The analysis shows that each of the proposed policy measures included in the platforms has both advantages and disadvantages. The platforms thus reflect the diverse choices that have been made by the parties. The publication presents the impact of party programs on public finances, purchasing power and employment. Also included in the publication are analyses in the field of mobility, energy and climate, nature, education, housing and healthcare. [nl

  13. The analysis of export commodity competitiveness in Central Java Province at period 2011-2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elysi, M. G.; Darsono; Riptanti, E. W.

    2018-03-01

    This study aims to determine the competitiveness of furniture export in Central Java Province Indonesia in terms of comparative and competitive advantages and to formulate the strategies to enhance the competitiveness of furniture export in Central Java Province. Descriptive analytic method was used for this research. Data used in this research are primary and secondary data. Data were analyzed using RCA (Revealed Comparative Advantage), TSI (Trade Specialization Index) and SOAR (Strength, Opportunity, Aspiration, Result). The results showed that furniture commodity in Central Java Province had strong comparative competitiveness with the value of RCA>1 and had strong competitiveness with positive index values in the range of 0 to 1. Based on SOAR analysis, strategy measures can be formulated, namely maintaining the existing and expanding targeted markets, improving product designs (innovations) and improving raw materials efficiency.

  14. Overweight, Obesity, and Extreme Obesity Among Mississippi Adults, 2001?2010 and 2011?2015

    OpenAIRE

    Mendy, Vincent L.; Vargas, Rodolfo; Cannon-Smith, Gerri; Payton, Marinelle

    2017-01-01

    Introduction In 2015, about 1.5 million adults in Mississippi were overweight or obese. Obesity is associated with increased risk for diabetes and cardiovascular problems. We examined trends in the prevalence of overweight, obesity, and extreme obesity from 2001 through 2010 and 2011 through 2015. Methods We used data from the Mississippi Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System to analyze trends in the prevalence of overweight, obesity, and extreme obesity among adults from 2001 through 20...

  15. Diplomasi Korea Selatan Mendesak Jepang Menandatangani Agreement on Comfort Women Tahun 2011-2015

    OpenAIRE

    Fauzia, Rizka; Pakpahan, Saiman

    2017-01-01

    This research analyze about steps of diplomacy by South Korea to urge Japan sign the Irreversible agreement called Agreement on comfort Woman on December 28,2015. The agreement consisting of statement deepest apology of Japan‟s goverment about their contribution to abduct almost 200 thousand women from some country specially from South Korea.Since world war I Japan‟s goverment abduct more than 200 thousand women from South Korea, Indonesia, and phillippines to be their sex slavery in order to...

  16. Molecular characterisation of equine group A rotaviruses in Ireland (2011-2015).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nemoto, Manabu; Ryan, Evelyn; Lyons, Pamela; Cullinane, Ann

    2017-08-01

    The molecular epidemiology of equine group A rotaviruses (RVAs) in Ireland from 2011 to 2015 was investigated. Of 438 diagnostic specimens submitted from foals with enteric disease, 102 (23.3%) were positive for RVA using an immunochromatographic assay. G genotypes were determined for 76 equine RVAs, of which 68 (89.5%) were G3 and eight (10.5%) were G14. Of 18 RVAs (12 G3 and six G14) characterised by P genotyping, all were P[12]. G3P[12] and G14P[12] were the most prevalent genotypes of RVA in foals in Ireland, similar to other countries and consistent with previous studies in Ireland from 1999 to 2005. Phylogenetic analysis showed that G3P[12] and G14P[12] RVAs were related to equine RVAs recently detected in Europe, Brazil and South Africa, and to the vaccine strain H-2. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  17. Oral Health in a Sample of Pregnant Women from Northern Appalachia (2011-2015).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neiswanger, Katherine; McNeil, Daniel W; Foxman, Betsy; Govil, Manika; Cooper, Margaret E; Weyant, Robert J; Shaffer, John R; Crout, Richard J; Simhan, Hyagriv N; Beach, Scott R; Chapman, Stella; Zovko, Jayme G; Brown, Linda J; Strotmeyer, Stephen J; Maurer, Jennifer L; Marazita, Mary L

    2015-01-01

    Background. Chronic poor oral health has a high prevalence in Appalachia, a large region in the eastern USA. The Center for Oral Health Research in Appalachia (COHRA) has been enrolling pregnant women and their babies since 2011 in the COHRA2 study of genetic, microbial, and environmental factors involved in oral health in Northern Appalachia. Methods. The COHRA2 protocol is presented in detail, including inclusion criteria (healthy, adult, pregnant, US Caucasian, English speaking, and nonimmunocompromised women), recruiting (two sites: Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia, USA), assessments (demographic, medical, dental, psychosocial/behavioral, and oral microbial samples and DNA), timelines (longitudinal from pregnancy to young childhood), quality control, and retention rates. Results. Preliminary oral health and demographic data are presented in 727 pregnant women, half from the greater Pittsburgh region and half from West Virginia. Despite similar tooth brushing and flossing habits, COHRA2 women in West Virginia have significantly worse oral health than the Pittsburgh sample. Women from Pittsburgh are older and more educated and have less unemployment than the West Virginia sample. Conclusions. We observed different prevalence of oral health and demographic variables between pregnant women from West Virginia (primarily rural) and Pittsburgh (primarily urban). These observations suggest site-specific differences within Northern Appalachia that warrant future studies.

  18. Research Trends in Mobile Learning in Higher Education: A Systematic Review of Articles (2011-2015)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krull, Greig; Duart, Josep M.

    2017-01-01

    The potential and use of mobile devices in higher education has been a key issue for educational research and practice since the widespread adoption of these devices. Due to the evolving nature and affordances of mobile technologies, it is an area that requires ongoing investigation. This study aims to identify emerging trends in mobile learning…

  19. Demographic model of the Swiss cattle population for the years 2009-2011 stratified by gender, age and production type.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sara Schärrer

    Full Text Available Demographic composition and dynamics of animal and human populations are important determinants for the transmission dynamics of infectious disease and for the effect of infectious disease or environmental disasters on productivity. In many circumstances, demographic data are not available or of poor quality. Since 1999 Switzerland has been recording cattle movements, births, deaths and slaughter in an animal movement database (AMD. The data present in the AMD offers the opportunity for analysing and understanding the dynamic of the Swiss cattle population. A dynamic population model can serve as a building block for future disease transmission models and help policy makers in developing strategies regarding animal health, animal welfare, livestock management and productivity. The Swiss cattle population was therefore modelled using a system of ordinary differential equations. The model was stratified by production type (dairy or beef, age and gender (male and female calves: 0-1 year, heifers and young bulls: 1-2 years, cows and bulls: older than 2 years. The simulation of the Swiss cattle population reflects the observed pattern accurately. Parameters were optimized on the basis of the goodness-of-fit (using the Powell algorithm. The fitted rates were compared with calculated rates from the AMD and differed only marginally. This gives confidence in the fitted rates of parameters that are not directly deductible from the AMD (e.g. the proportion of calves that are moved from the dairy system to fattening plants.

  20. Model application of Murabahah financing acknowledgement statement of Sharia accounting standard No 59 Year 2002

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muda, Iskandar; Panjaitan, Rohdearni; Erlina; Ginting, Syafruddin; Maksum, Azhar; Abubakar

    2018-03-01

    The purpose of this research is to observe murabahah financing implantation model. Observations were made on one of the sharia banks going public in Indonesia. Form of implementation of such implementation in the form of financing given the exact facilities and maximum financing, then the provision of financing should be adjusted to the type, business conditions and business plans prospective mudharib. If the financing provided is too low with the mudharib requirement not reaching the target and the financing is not refundable.

  1. Animal Models of Chemical Carcinogenesis: Driving Breakthroughs in Cancer Research for 100 Years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kemp, Christopher J

    2015-10-01

    The identification of carcinogens in the workplace, diet, and environment through chemical carcinogenesis studies in animals has directly contributed to a reduction of cancer burden in the human population. Reduced exposure to these carcinogens through lifestyle changes, government regulation, or change in industry practices has reduced cancer incidence in exposed populations. In addition to providing the first experimental evidence for cancer's relationship to chemical and radiation exposure, animal models of environmentally induced cancer have and will continue to provide important insight into the causes, mechanisms, and conceptual frameworks of cancer. More recently, combining chemical carcinogens with genetically engineered mouse models has emerged as an invaluable approach to study the complex interaction between genotype and environment that contributes to cancer development. In the future, animal models of environmentally induced cancer are likely to provide insight into areas such as the epigenetic basis of cancer, genetic modifiers of cancer susceptibility, the systems biology of cancer, inflammation and cancer, and cancer prevention. © 2015 Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press.

  2. Animal Models of Peritoneal Dialysis: Thirty Years of Our Own Experience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baum, Ewa; Schwermer, Krzysztof; Hoppe, Krzysztof; Lindholm, Bengt; Breborowicz, Andrzej

    2015-01-01

    Experimental animal models improve our understanding of technical problems in peritoneal dialysis PD, and such studies contribute to solving crucial clinical problems. We established an acute and chronic PD model in nonuremic and uremic rats. We observed that kinetics of PD in rats change as the animals are aging, and this effect is due not only to an increasing peritoneal surface area, but also to changes in the permeability of the peritoneum. Changes of the peritoneal permeability seen during chronic PD in rats are comparable to results obtained in humans treated with PD. Effluent dialysate can be drained repeatedly to measure concentration of various bioactive molecules and to correlate the results with the peritoneal permeability. Additionally we can study in in vitro conditions properties of the effluent dialysate on cultured peritoneal mesothelial cells or fibroblasts. We can evaluate acute and chronic effect of various additives to the dialysis fluid on function and permeability of the peritoneum. Results from such study are even more relevant to the clinical scenario when experiments are performed in uremic rats. Our experimental animal PD model not only helps to understand the pathophysiology of PD but also can be used for testing biocompatibility of new PD fluids. PMID:26236720

  3. Modeling vertical movement of organic matter in a soil incubated for 41 years with "1"4C labeled straw

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bruun, S.; Christensen, B.T.; Thomsen, I.K.

    2007-01-01

    The distribution of organic matter (OM) in the soil profile reflects the balance between inputs and decomposition at different depths as well as transport of OM within the profile. In this study we modeled movement of OM in the soil profile as a result of mechanisms resulting in dispersive...... and advective movement. The model was used to interpret the distribution of C-14 in the soil profile 41 years after the labeling event. The model fitted the observed distribution of C-14 well (R-2 = 0.988, AIC(c) = -82.6), with a dispersion constant of D = 0.71 cm(2) yr(-1) and an advection constant of v = 0.......0081 cm yr(-1). However, the model consistently underestimated the amount of OM in the soil layers from 27 to 37 cm depth. A possible explanation for this is that different fractions of OM are transported by different mechanisms. For example, particulate OM, organomineral colloids and dissolved OM...

  4. [Personality in the big five model and maintaining abstinence after one year follow-up].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Betkowska-Korpała, Barbara

    2012-01-01

    To compare Five-Factor personality traits in patients maintaining abstinence and relapsed patients (i.e. those who relapsed within a year after treatment), following eight weeks of in-house treatment and three months of out-patient treatment. In longitudinal studies, a sample of 190 patients was analysed (49 females and 141 males; mean age: 43). The patients participated in therapeutic programmes at several addiction treatment centres across Poland. Personality traits were measured using the NEO PI-R inventory proposed by Costa and McCrae (adapted into Polish by Jerzy Siuta) at the initial stage of the treatment. Abstinence was assessed based on the interview. As far as the main traits are concerned, abstinent patients have higher levels of Agreeableness and Conscientiousness than patients who relapsed within a year following the therapy. Moreover, they are characterised by higher levels of constituent traits: Straightforwardness, Ideas and Altruism, as well as higher levels of Order, Self-Discipline and Dutifulness. However, their levels of Hostility are lower compared to patients not maintaining abstinence. After one year follow-up, the group maintaining abstinence is characterised by a higher Agreeableness and Conscientiousness, which is beneficial for cooperation with others as well as undertaking and realising tasks. Moreover, lower constituent values of Neuroticism are linked to higher adaptability and greater therapy participation than in a relapsed group. An early identification of patients bearing traits linked to lower adaptability will decrease the possibility of relapse thanks to making a greater effort at enhancing treatment participation while paying special attention to any co-existing psychopathology.

  5. Cervical cancer screening in Australia: modelled evaluation of the impact of changing the recommended interval from two to three years

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Howard Kirsten

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The National Cervical Screening Program in Australia currently recommends that sexually active women between the ages of 18-70 years attend routine screening every 2 years. The publically funded National HPV Vaccination Program commenced in 2007, with catch-up in females aged 12-26 years conducted until 2009; and this may prompt consideration of whether the screening interval and other aspects of the organized screening program could be reviewed. The aim of the current evaluation was to assess the epidemiologic outcomes and cost implications of changing the recommended screening interval in Australia to 3 years. Methods We used a modelling approach to evaluate the effects of moving to a 3-yearly recommended screening interval. We used data from the Victorian Cervical Cytology Registry over the period 1997-2007 to model compliance with routine screening under current practice, and registry data from other countries with 3-yearly recommendations to inform assumptions about future screening behaviour under two alternative systems for screening organisation - retention of a reminder-based system (as in New Zealand, or a move to a call-and-recall system (as in England. Results A 3-yearly recommendation is predicted to be of similar effectiveness to the current 2-yearly recommendation, resulting in no substantial change to the total number of incident cervical cancer cases or cancer deaths, or to the estimated 0.68% average cumulative lifetime risk of cervical cancer in unvaccinated Australian women. However, a 3-yearly screening policy would be associated with decreases in the annual number of colposcopy and biopsy procedures performed (by 4-10% and decreases in the number of treatments for pre-invasive lesions (by 2-4%. The magnitude of the decrease in the number of diagnostic procedures and treatments would depend on the method of screening organization, with call-and-recall screening associated with the highest reductions. The

  6. Ready to learn physics: a team-based learning model for first year university

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parappilly, Maria; Schmidt, Lisa; De Ritter, Samantha

    2015-09-01

    Team-based learning (TBL) is an established model of group work which aims to improve students' ability to apply discipline-related content. TBL consists of a readiness assurance process (RAP), student groups and application activities. While TBL has not been implemented widely in science, technology, engineering and mathematics disciplines, it has been effective in improving student learning in other disciplines. This paper describes the incorporation of TBL activities into a non-calculus based introductory level physics topic—Physics for the Modern World. Students were given pre-class preparation materials and an individual RAP online test before the workshops. The pre-workshop individual RAP test ensured that all students were exposed to concept-based questions before their workshops and motivated them to use the preparatory materials in readiness for the workshop. The students were placed into random teams and during the first part of the workshop, the teams went through a subset of the quiz questions (team RAP test) and in the remaining time, teams completed an in-class assignment. After the workshop students were allowed another attempt at the individual RAP test to see if their knowledge had improved. The ability of TBL to promote student learning of key concepts was evaluated by experiment using pre- and post- testing. The students’ perception of TBL was monitored by discussion posts and survey responses. Finally, the ability of TBL to support peer-peer interaction was evaluated by video analysis of the class. We found that the TBL process improved student learning; students did interact with each other in class; and the students had a positive view of TBL. To assess the transferability of this model to other topics, we conducted a comparison study with an environmental science topic which produced similar results. Our study supports the use of this TBL model in science topics.

  7. Models of quality-adjusted life years when health varies over time

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Kristian Schultz; Østerdal, Lars Peter Raahave

    2006-01-01

    time tradeoff (TTO) and standard gamble (SG) scores. We investigate deterministic and probabilistic models and consider five different families of discounting functions in all. The second part of the paper discusses four issues recurrently debated in the literature. This discussion includes questioning...... the SG method as the gold standard for estimation of the health state index, reexamining the role of the constantproportional tradeoff condition, revisiting the problem of double discounting of QALYs, and suggesting that it is not a matter of choosing between TTO and SG procedures as the combination...

  8. Models of Quality-Adjusted Life Years when Health varies over Time: Survey and Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Kristian Schultz; Østerdal, Lars Peter

    2006-01-01

    time trade-off (TTO) and standard gamble (SG) scores. We investigate deterministic and probabilistic models and consider five different families of discounting functions in all. This discussion includes questioning the SG method as the gold standard of the health state index, re-examining the role...... of the constant-proportional trade-off condition, revisiting the problem of double discounting of QALYs, and suggesting that it is not a matter of choosing between TTO and SG procedures as the combination of these two can be used to disentangle risk aversion from discounting. We find that caution must be taken...

  9. Predicting five-year recurrence rates of kidney stones: an artificial neural network model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caudarella, Renata; Tonello, Lucio; Rizzoli, Elisabetta; Vescini, Fabio

    2011-03-01

    Due to high recurrence rates of urolithiasis, many attempts have been performed to identify tools for predicting the risk of stone formation. The application of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) seems to be a valid candidate for reaching this endpoint. The aim of this study was to find a set of parameters able to predict recurrence episodes immediately after clinical and metabolic evaluation performed at the first visit in a 5-year window. Data were collected from 80 outpatients who presented idiopathic calcium stone disease both at baseline and after 5 years; patients underwent treatment including both general measures and medical therapy. After 5 years, patients were classified into two subsets, namely SSFs (without recurrence episodes), consisting of 45 subjects (56.25%) and RSFs, with at least one episode of recurrence after the baseline, consisting of 35 subjects (43.75%). Helped by conventional statistics (One-way ANOVA and three Discriminant Analyses: standard, backward stepwise and forward stepwise), an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) approach was used to predict recurrence episodes. An optimal set of 6 parameters was identified from amongst the different combinations in order to efficiently predict the outcome of stone recurrence in approximately 90% of cases. This set consist of serum Na and K as well as Na, P, Oxalate and AP (CaP) index from urine. The results obtained with ANN seem to suggest that some kind of relationship is present between the identified parameters and future stone recurrence. This relationship is probably very complex (in the mathematical sense) and non-linear In fact, a Logistic Regression was built as a comparative method and performed less good results at least in terms of accuracy and sensitivity. The application of ANN to the database led to a promising predicting algorithm and suggests that a strongly non-linear relationship seems to exist between the parameters and the recurrence episodes. In particular, the ANN approach

  10. Drivers of inorganic carbon dynamics in first-year sea ice: A model study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Moreau, Sebastien; Vancoppenolle, Martin; Delille, Bruno

    2015-01-01

    Sea ice is an active source or a sink for carbon dioxide (CO2), although to what extent is not clear. Here, we analyze CO2 dynamics within sea ice using a one-dimensional halothermodynamic sea ice model including gas physics and carbon biogeochemistry. The ice-ocean fluxes, and vertical transport...... included. The model is evaluated using observations from a 6 month field study at Point Barrow, Alaska, and an ice-tank experi- ment. At Barrow, results show that the DIC budget is mainly driven by physical processes, wheras brine-air CO2 fluxes, ikaite formation, and net primary production, are secondary...... factors. In terms of ice-atmosphere CO2 exchanges, sea ice is a net CO2 source and sink in winter and summer, respectively. The formulation of the ice-atmosphere CO2 flux impacts the simulated near-surface CO2 partial pressure (pCO2), but not the DIC budget. Because the simulated ice-atmosphere CO2 fluxes...

  11. Ten Years of Cloud Properties from MODIS: Global Statistics and Use in Climate Model Evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Platnick, Steven E.

    2011-01-01

    The NASA Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), launched onboard the Terra and Aqua spacecrafts, began Earth observations on February 24, 2000 and June 24,2002, respectively. Among the algorithms developed and applied to this sensor, a suite of cloud products includes cloud masking/detection, cloud-top properties (temperature, pressure), and optical properties (optical thickness, effective particle radius, water path, and thermodynamic phase). All cloud algorithms underwent numerous changes and enhancements between for the latest Collection 5 production version; this process continues with the current Collection 6 development. We will show example MODIS Collection 5 cloud climatologies derived from global spatial . and temporal aggregations provided in the archived gridded Level-3 MODIS atmosphere team product (product names MOD08 and MYD08 for MODIS Terra and Aqua, respectively). Data sets in this Level-3 product include scalar statistics as well as 1- and 2-D histograms of many cloud properties, allowing for higher order information and correlation studies. In addition to these statistics, we will show trends and statistical significance in annual and seasonal means for a variety of the MODIS cloud properties, as well as the time required for detection given assumed trends. To assist in climate model evaluation, we have developed a MODIS cloud simulator with an accompanying netCDF file containing subsetted monthly Level-3 statistical data sets that correspond to the simulator output. Correlations of cloud properties with ENSO offer the potential to evaluate model cloud sensitivity; initial results will be discussed.

  12. Using Logistic Regression to Model New York City Restaurant Grades Over a Two-Year Period

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Nadler

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available A knowledge gap exists in the role of restaurant type on the prediction of attaining the highest grade possible from the local health inspection agency. This study identified disparities using logistic regression between the issuance of a Grade A and restaurant type and location. This study tested the eight most inspected types of restaurants within the City of New York and calculated the odds ratios of their receiving the highest inspection grade by the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene. A fitted equation has been proposed for the prediction of receiving the highest inspection grade based upon the citywide results of these eight restaurant types from calendar years 2011 and 2012. The results suggest that certain styles of restaurants have lower odds of receiving the highest grade in comparison to American-style restaurants.

  13. Comparing transient, accelerated, and equilibrium simulations of the last 30 000 years with the GENIE-1 model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. J. Lunt

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available We examine several aspects of the ocean-atmosphere system over the last 30 000 years, by carrying out simulations with prescribed ice sheets, atmospheric CO2 concentration, and orbital parameters. We use the GENIE-1 model with a frictional geostrophic ocean, dynamic sea ice, an energy balance atmosphere, and a land-surface scheme with fixed vegetation. A transient simulation, with boundary conditions derived from ice-core records and ice sheet reconstructions, is compared with equilibrium snapshot simulations, including the Last Glacial Maximum (21 000 years before present; 21 kyrBP, mid-Holocene (6 kyrBP and pre-industrial. The equilibrium snapshot simulations are all very similar to their corresponding time period in the transient simulation, indicating that over the last 30 000 years, the model's ocean-atmosphere system is close to equilibrium with its boundary conditions. However, our simulations neglect the transfer of fresh water from and to the ocean, resulting from the growth and decay of ice sheets, which would, in reality, lead to greater disequilibrium. Additionally, the GENIE-1 model exhibits a rather limited response in terms of its Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC over the 30 000 years; a more sensitive AMOC would also be likely to lead to greater disequilibrium. We investigate the method of accelerating the boundary conditions of a transient simulation and find that the Southern Ocean is the region most affected by the acceleration. The Northern Hemisphere, even with a factor of 10 acceleration, is relatively unaffected. The results are robust to changes to several tunable parameters in the model. They also hold when a higher vertical resolution is used in the ocean.

  14. The Effect of Talking Drawings on Five-Year-Old Turkish Children's Mental Models of the Water Cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahi, Berat

    2017-01-01

    The purpose of the current study is to determine the effect of talking drawings on Turkish preschool children's mental models of the water cycle. The study was conducted in the city of Kastamonu, located in the north-west of Turkey. A total of 40 five-year-old preschool children participated in the study in the spring term of the 2015-2016 school…

  15. Standards in Modeling and Simulation: The Next Ten Years MODSIM World Paper 2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collins, Andrew J.; Diallo, Saikou; Sherfey, Solomon R.; Tolk, Andreas; Turnitsa, Charles D.; Petty, Mikel; Wiesel, Eric

    2011-01-01

    The world has moved on since the introduction of the Distributed Interactive Simulation (DIS) standard in the early 1980s. The cold-war maybe over but there is still a requirement to train for and analyze the next generation of threats that face the free world. With the emergence of new and more powerful computer technology and techniques means that modeling and simulation (M&S) has become an important and growing, part in satisfying this requirement. As an industry grows, the benefits from standardization within that industry grow with it. For example, it is difficult to imagine what the USA would be like without the 110 volts standard for domestic electricity supply. This paper contains an overview of the outcomes from a recent workshop to investigate the possible future of M&S standards within the federal government.

  16. A Multi-Year Study of the Impact of the Rice Model Teacher Professional Development on Elementary Science Teachers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viorica Diaconu, Dana; Radigan, Judy; Suskavcevic, Milijana; Nichol, Carolyn

    2012-04-01

    A teacher professional development program for in-service elementary school science teachers, the Rice Elementary Model Science Lab (REMSL), was developed for urban school districts serving predominately high-poverty, high-minority students. Teachers with diverse skills and science capacities came together in Professional Learning Communities, one full day each week throughout an academic year, to create a classroom culture for science instruction. Approximately 80 teachers each year received professional development in science content and pedagogy using the same inquiry-based constructivist methods that the teachers were expected to use in their classrooms. During this four-year study, scientists and educators worked with elementary teachers in a year-long model science lab environment to provide science content and science pedagogy. The effectiveness of the program was measured using a mix of quantitative and qualitative methods that allowed the researchers to triangulate the findings from quantitative measures, such as content test and surveys, with the emerging themes from the qualitative instruments, such as class observations and participant interviews. Results showed that, in all four years, teachers from the REMSL Treatment group have significantly increased their science content knowledge (p < 0.05). During the last two years, their gains in science content knowledge, use of inquiry-based instruction and leadership skills were significantly higher than those of the Control group teachers' (p < 0.01, p < 0.001 and p < 0.05, respectively). Three themes resonated in the interviews with participants: science content knowledge growth, constructivist pedagogy and leadership skills.

  17. Modelling the lay expert for first-year medical students: the actor-patient as teacher.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nestel, Debra; Muir, Elizabeth; Plant, Marilyn; Kidd, Jane; Thurlow, Sue

    2002-09-01

    Actors are widely used in medical education as simulated patients. In this session, the role of actors was extended to 'simulated students' and facilitators in an introductory communication session. After an initial activity with the entire cohort of first-year students, groups of 20 students worked with either an actor or medical teacher in three activities. The activities aimed to raise students' awareness of the range of communication challenges in medical education and practice. After the session, students completed evaluation forms based on their experiences in the session. The results revealed no difference between students who were facilitated by actors or medical teachers in relation to meeting the learning objectives and their ratings of the usefulness of the activities to support learning. The actors who participated in this session were experienced in working with medical students. Their enhanced role provides students with an opportunity to identify with and reflect on the expertise of a lay teacher and to consider extending their definition of a learning opportunity to more informal encounters.

  18. The trilayer approach of teaching physiology, pathophysiology, and pharmacology concepts in a first-year pharmacy course: the TLAT model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Islam, Mohammed A; Sabnis, Gauri; Farris, Fred

    2017-09-01

    This paper describes the development, implementation, and students' perceptions of a new trilayer approach of teaching (TLAT). The TLAT model involved blending lecture, in-class group activities, and out-of-class assignments on selected content areas and was implemented initially in a first-year integrated pharmacy course. Course contents were either delivered by traditional lectures or by the TLAT. A survey instrument was distributed by SurveyMonkey to determine students' perceptions of the TLAT model. Descriptive statistics were used for data analysis. Students' performance in a total of 225 examination and quiz questions was analyzed to evaluate whether the TLAT model improved students' learning. Students' ( n = 98) performance scores for TLAT-based and lecture-based questions were 83.3 ± 10.2 and 79.5 ± 14.0, respectively ( P Physiological Society.

  19. Socially valued role models 25 years after the fall of Communism: a quantitative study on students and mass media exposure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alina Duduciuc

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available How young people appreciate certain public personalities and interpersonal relations in respect with their professional path have been a topic of interest among social science and communication scholars. The aim of this article consists in investigating the relation between media effects and Romanian students’ role models in lines of cultivation theory (G. Gerbner et al., 1977. On this purpose, 188 students respond to a questionnaire regarding exposure to media, the prevalent role models valued by them and their views on life achievements conveyed by the media and society at large: teachers, celebrities, artists, politicians, businessmen, priests, parents. The results showed that students relate more to role models which are contextually close to them (parents, siblings than those frequently covered by the media (politicians, showbiz celebrities. Based on these results, we stated that 25 year after the fall of communism Romanian young people do not find a contemporary personality to value as a representative for their social identity.

  20. Islands as model systems in ecology and evolution: prospects fifty years after MacArthur-Wilson.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warren, Ben H; Simberloff, Daniel; Ricklefs, Robert E; Aguilée, Robin; Condamine, Fabien L; Gravel, Dominique; Morlon, Hélène; Mouquet, Nicolas; Rosindell, James; Casquet, Juliane; Conti, Elena; Cornuault, Josselin; Fernández-Palacios, José María; Hengl, Tomislav; Norder, Sietze J; Rijsdijk, Kenneth F; Sanmartín, Isabel; Strasberg, Dominique; Triantis, Kostas A; Valente, Luis M; Whittaker, Robert J; Gillespie, Rosemary G; Emerson, Brent C; Thébaud, Christophe

    2015-02-01

    The study of islands as model systems has played an important role in the development of evolutionary and ecological theory. The 50th anniversary of MacArthur and Wilson's (December 1963) article, 'An equilibrium theory of insular zoogeography', was a recent milestone for this theme. Since 1963, island systems have provided new insights into the formation of ecological communities. Here, building on such developments, we highlight prospects for research on islands to improve our understanding of the ecology and evolution of communities in general. Throughout, we emphasise how attributes of islands combine to provide unusual research opportunities, the implications of which stretch far beyond islands. Molecular tools and increasing data acquisition now permit re-assessment of some fundamental issues that interested MacArthur and Wilson. These include the formation of ecological networks, species abundance distributions, and the contribution of evolution to community assembly. We also extend our prospects to other fields of ecology and evolution - understanding ecosystem functioning, speciation and diversification - frequently employing assets of oceanic islands in inferring the geographic area within which evolution has occurred, and potential barriers to gene flow. Although island-based theory is continually being enriched, incorporating non-equilibrium dynamics is identified as a major challenge for the future. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

  1. A palaeobiogeographic model for biotic diversification within Amazonia over the past three million years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ribas, Camila C.; Aleixo, Alexandre; Nogueira, Afonso C. R.; Miyaki, Cristina Y.; Cracraft, Joel

    2012-01-01

    Many hypotheses have been proposed to explain high species diversity in Amazonia, but few generalizations have emerged. In part, this has arisen from the scarcity of rigorous tests for mechanisms promoting speciation, and from major uncertainties about palaeogeographic events and their spatial and temporal associations with diversification. Here, we investigate the environmental history of Amazonia using a phylogenetic and biogeographic analysis of trumpeters (Aves: Psophia), which are represented by species in each of the vertebrate areas of endemism. Their relationships reveal an unforeseen ‘complete’ time-slice of Amazonian diversification over the past 3.0 Myr. We employ this temporally calibrated phylogeny to test competing palaeogeographic hypotheses. Our results are consistent with the establishment of the current Amazonian drainage system at approximately 3.0–2.0 Ma and predict the temporal pattern of major river formation over Plio-Pleistocene times. We propose a palaeobiogeographic model for the last 3.0 Myr of Amazonian history that has implications for understanding patterns of endemism, the temporal history of Amazonian diversification and mechanisms promoting speciation. The history of Psophia, in combination with new geological evidence, provides the strongest direct evidence supporting a role for river dynamics in Amazonian diversification, and the absence of such a role for glacial climate cycles and refugia. PMID:21795268

  2. Advanced Test Reactor Core Modeling Update Project Annual Report for Fiscal Year 2013

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nigg, David W. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2013-09-01

    Legacy computational reactor physics software tools and protocols currently used for support of Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) core fuel management and safety assurance, and to some extent, experiment management, are inconsistent with the state of modern nuclear engineering practice, and are difficult, if not impossible, to verify and validate (V&V) according to modern standards. Furthermore, the legacy staff knowledge required for effective application of these tools and protocols from the 1960s and 1970s is rapidly being lost due to staff turnover and retirements. In late 2009, the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) initiated a focused effort, the ATR Core Modeling Update Project, to address this situation through the introduction of modern high-fidelity computational software and protocols. This aggressive computational and experimental campaign will have a broad strategic impact on the operation of the ATR, both in terms of improved computational efficiency and accuracy for support of ongoing DOE programs as well as in terms of national and international recognition of the ATR National Scientific User Facility (NSUF).

  3. Modeling mental health information preferences during the early adult years: a discrete choice conjoint experiment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cunningham, Charles E; Walker, John R; Eastwood, John D; Westra, Henny; Rimas, Heather; Chen, Yvonne; Marcus, Madalyn; Swinson, Richard P; Bracken, Keyna; The Mobilizing Minds Research Group

    2014-04-01

    Although most young adults with mood and anxiety disorders do not seek treatment, those who are better informed about mental health problems are more likely to use services. The authors used conjoint analysis to model strategies for providing information about anxiety and depression to young adults. Participants (N = 1,035) completed 17 choice tasks presenting combinations of 15 four-level attributes of a mental health information strategy. Latent class analysis yielded 3 segments. The virtual segment (28.7%) preferred working independently on the Internet to obtain information recommended by young adults who had experienced anxiety or depression. Self-assessment options and links to service providers were more important to this segment. Conventional participants (30.1%) preferred books or pamphlets recommended by a doctor, endorsed by mental health professionals, and used with a doctor's support. They would devote more time to information acquisition but were less likely to use Internet social networking options. Brief sources of information were more important to the low interest segment (41.2%). All segments preferred information about alternative ways to reduce anxiety or depression rather than psychological approaches or medication. Maximizing the use of information requires active and passive approaches delivered through old-media (e.g., books) and new-media (e.g., Internet) channels.

  4. Building information modelling (BIM) after ten years: Malaysian construction players’ perception of BIM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Latiffi, A. Ahmad; Brahim, J.; Fathi, M. S.

    2017-08-01

    Building Information Modelling (BIM) concept has expanded widely in many countries for more than a decade with its role of improving current practices in construction projects. However, the understanding of BIM differs among construction players, depending on how construction players utilize the concept in their projects. Therefore, this paper aims to explore the understanding of BIM concept among construction players in the Malaysian construction industry. A literature review on BIM concept and semi-structured interviews with construction players in BIM such as client, civil and structural (C&S) engineer and mechanical and electrical (M&E) engineer, quantity surveyor (QS), contractor, facilities manager and BIM consultant have been conducted in order to achieve this study’s the aim. The results show that the understanding of BIM concept among the construction players is limited to BIM as a process and technology. It is important for the construction players to improve their understanding of BIM as it can be used to enhance performance and productivity of construction projects.

  5. Observations and modeling of fjord sedimentation during the 30 year retreat of Columbia Glacier, AK

    Science.gov (United States)

    Love, Katherine B; Hallet, Bernard; Pratt, Thomas L.; O'Neel, Shad

    2016-01-01

    To explore links between glacier dynamics, sediment yields and the accumulation of glacial sediments in a temperate setting, we use extensive glaciological observations for Columbia Glacier, Alaska, and new oceanographic data from the fjord exposed during its retreat. High-resolution seismic data indicate that 3.2 × 108 m3 of sediment has accumulated in Columbia Fjord over the past three decades, which corresponds to ~5 mm a−1 of erosion averaged over the glaciated area. We develop a general model to infer the sediment-flux history from the glacier that is compatible with the observed retreat history, and the thickness and architecture of the fjord sediment deposits. Results reveal a fivefold increase in sediment flux from 1997 to 2000, which is not correlated with concurrent changes in ice flux or retreat rate. We suggest the flux increase resulted from an increase in the sediment transport capacity of the subglacial hydraulic system due to the retreat-related steepening of the glacier surface over a known subglacial deep basin. Because variations in subglacial sediment storage can impact glacial sediment flux, in addition to changes in climate, erosion rate and glacier dynamics, the interpretation of climatic changes based on the sediment record is more complex than generally assumed.

  6. Integrating critical thinking and evidence-based dentistry across a four-year dental curriculum: a model for independent learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marshall, Teresa A; Straub-Morarend, Cheryl L; Handoo, Nidhi; Solow, Catherine M; Cunningham-Ford, Marsha A; Finkelstein, Michael W

    2014-03-01

    Introducing critical thinking and evidence-based dentistry (EBD) content into an established dental curriculum can be a difficult and challenging process. Over the past three years, the University of Iowa College of Dentistry has developed and implemented a progressive four-year integrated critical thinking and EBD curriculum. The objective of this article is to describe the development and implementation process to make it available as a model for other dental schools contemplating introduction of critical thinking and EBD into their curricula. The newly designed curriculum built upon an existing problem-based learning foundation, which introduces critical thinking and the scientific literature in the D1 year, in order to expose students to the rationale and resources for practicing EBD in the D2 and D3 years and provide opportunities to practice critical thinking and apply the EBD five-step process in the D2, D3, and D4 years. All curricular content is online, and D3 and D4 EBD activities are integrated within existing clinical responsibilities. The curricular content, student resources, and student activities are described.

  7. Modeling Early Postnatal Brain Growth and Development with CT: Changes in the Brain Radiodensity Histogram from Birth to 2 Years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cauley, K A; Hu, Y; Och, J; Yorks, P J; Fielden, S W

    2018-02-15

    The majority of brain growth and development occur in the first 2 years of life. This study investigated these changes by analysis of the brain radiodensity histogram of head CT scans from the clinical population, 0-2 years of age. One hundred twenty consecutive head CTs with normal findings meeting the inclusion criteria from children from birth to 2 years were retrospectively identified from 3 different CT scan platforms. Histogram analysis was performed on brain-extracted images, and histogram mean, mode, full width at half maximum, skewness, kurtosis, and SD were correlated with subject age. The effects of scan platform were investigated. Normative curves were fitted by polynomial regression analysis. Average total brain volume was 360 cm 3 at birth, 948 cm 3 at 1 year, and 1072 cm 3 at 2 years. Total brain tissue density showed an 11% increase in mean density at 1 year and 19% at 2 years. Brain radiodensity histogram skewness was positive at birth, declining logarithmically in the first 200 days of life. The histogram kurtosis also decreased in the first 200 days to approach a normal distribution. Direct segmentation of CT images showed that changes in brain radiodensity histogram skewness correlated with, and can be explained by, a relative increase in gray matter volume and an increase in gray and white matter tissue density that occurs during this period of brain maturation. Normative metrics of the brain radiodensity histogram derived from routine clinical head CT images can be used to develop a model of normal brain development. © 2018 by American Journal of Neuroradiology.

  8. Examining a conceptual model of parental nurturance, parenting practices and physical activity among 5-6 year olds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sebire, Simon J; Jago, Russell; Wood, Lesley; Thompson, Janice L; Zahra, Jezmond; Lawlor, Deborah A

    2016-01-01

    Parenting is an often-studied correlate of children's physical activity, however there is little research examining the associations between parenting styles, practices and the physical activity of younger children. This study aimed to investigate whether physical activity-based parenting practices mediate the association between parenting styles and 5-6 year-old children's objectively-assessed physical activity. 770 parents self-reported parenting style (nurturance and control) and physical activity-based parenting practices (logistic and modeling support). Their 5-6 year old child wore an accelerometer for five days to measure moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA). Linear regression was used to examine direct and indirect (mediation) associations. Data were collected in the United Kingdom in 2012/13 and analyzed in 2014. Parent nurturance was positively associated with provision of modeling (adjusted unstandardized coefficient, β = 0.11; 95% CI = 0.02, 0.21) and logistic support (β = 0.14; 0.07, 0.21). Modeling support was associated with greater child MVPA (β = 2.41; 0.23, 4.60) and a small indirect path from parent nurturance to child's MVPA was identified (β = 0.27; 0.04, 0.70). Physical activity-based parenting practices are more strongly associated with 5-6 year old children's MVPA than parenting styles. Further research examining conceptual models of parenting is needed to understand in more depth the possible antecedents to adaptive parenting practices beyond parenting styles. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  9. Examining a conceptual model of parental nurturance, parenting practices and physical activity among 5–6 year olds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sebire, Simon J.; Jago, Russell; Wood, Lesley; Thompson, Janice L.; Zahra, Jezmond; Lawlor, Deborah A.

    2016-01-01

    Rationale Parenting is an often-studied correlate of children's physical activity, however there is little research examining the associations between parenting styles, practices and the physical activity of younger children. Objective This study aimed to investigate whether physical activity-based parenting practices mediate the association between parenting styles and 5–6 year-old children's objectively-assessed physical activity. Methods 770 parents self-reported parenting style (nurturance and control) and physical activity-based parenting practices (logistic and modeling support). Their 5–6 year old child wore an accelerometer for five days to measure moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA). Linear regression was used to examine direct and indirect (mediation) associations. Data were collected in the United Kingdom in 2012/13 and analyzed in 2014. Results Parent nurturance was positively associated with provision of modeling (adjusted unstandardized coefficient, β = 0.11; 95% CI = 0.02, 0.21) and logistic support (β = 0.14; 0.07, 0.21). Modeling support was associated with greater child MVPA (β = 2.41; 0.23, 4.60) and a small indirect path from parent nurturance to child's MVPA was identified (β = 0.27; 0.04, 0.70). Conclusions Physical activity-based parenting practices are more strongly associated with 5–6 year old children's MVPA than parenting styles. Further research examining conceptual models of parenting is needed to understand in more depth the possible antecedents to adaptive parenting practices beyond parenting styles. PMID:26647364

  10. Bridging the gap between textbook and maternity patient: a nurse-developed teaching model for first-year medical students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooksey, Nancy Rumsey

    2010-12-01

    Providing more opportunities for first-year medical students to interact with patients in clinical settings is a current discussion topic in medical student education reform. Early clinical experience helps students bridge the gap between textbook and patient while observing patient-centered care, and serves as a first step for students to develop the skills needed to work cooperatively as members of a multidisciplinary health care team. The author developed a model to provide perinatal education to first-year medical students, consistent with the concept of interprofessional education. Primarily first-year medical students participated in the nurse-developed education model, a component of a noncredit extracurricular, student-run perinatal program at a Midwestern university medical center. Students were placed at the bedsides of hospitalized women to provide support and education to them during perinatal procedures, labor, childbirth, and cesarean delivery. A total of 350 students participated over a period of 13 school calendar years. Students remarked that participation in the program reinforced the importance of their concurrent anatomy and physiology classes. They observed interdependence and cooperation among the members of the health care team caring for women, and their evaluations of their experiences at the bedside were highly positive. Women consistently expressed appreciation for the additional individualized attention and education received from our student and nurse team. Nurses can enhance the learning of first-year medical students in the maternity care clinical setting. This nurse-developed education program provided students with a variety of vivid clinical experiences with maternity patients. © 2010, Copyright the Author. Journal compilation © 2010, Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  11. Blue and Fin Whale Habitat Modeling from Long-Term Year-Round Passive Acoustic Data from the Southern California Bight

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-09-30

    1 DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. Blue and Fin Whale Habitat Modeling from Long-Term Year...predictive, year-round habitat models of the presence of calling blue and fin whales in the Southern California Bight (SCB), to facilitate Navy’s...operational needs in this area. OBJECTIVES The primary objective of this research was to develop predictive, year-round habitat models of the presence

  12. Model thermohaline trends in the Mediterranean Sea during the last years: a change with respect to the last decades?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soto-Navarro, F Javier; Criado-Aldeanueva, Francisco

    2012-01-01

    Temperature and salinity outputs from ECCO (years 93-09) and GLORYS (years 03-09) models have been used to compute the thermohaline and steric sea level trends in the surface (0-150 m), intermediate (150 m-600 m), and deep (600 m-bottom) layers of the Mediterranean Sea. Some changes with respect to the second half of the 20th century have been observed: the cooling of the upper waters of the entire eastern basin since 1950 seems to have vanished; the warming of WMDW historically reported for the second half of the last century could have reversed, although there is no agreement between both models at this point (trends of different sign are predicted); the salinification of WMDW reported for the previous decades is not observed in the south-westernmost area in the period 93-09, and a clear change from positive to negative in the steric sea level trend with respect to the period 93-05 is detected due to the sharp decreasing steric sea level of years 02-06.

  13. Empirical model for estimating dengue incidence using temperature, rainfall, and relative humidity: a 19-year retrospective analysis in East Delhi.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramachandran, Vishnampettai G; Roy, Priyamvada; Das, Shukla; Mogha, Narendra Singh; Bansal, Ajay Kumar

    2016-01-01

    Aedes mosquitoes are responsible for transmitting the dengue virus. The mosquito lifecycle is known to be influenced by temperature, rainfall, and relative humidity. This retrospective study was planned to investigate whether climatic factors could be used to predict the occurrence of dengue in East Delhi. The number of monthly dengue cases reported over 19 years was obtained from the laboratory records of our institution. Monthly data of rainfall, temperature, and humidity collected from a local weather station were correlated with the number of monthly reported dengue cases. One-way analysis of variance was used to analyse whether the climatic parameters differed significantly among seasons. Four models were developed using negative binomial generalized linear model analysis. Monthly rainfall, temperature, humidity, were used as independent variables, and the number of dengue cases reported monthly was used as the dependent variable. The first model considered data from the same month, while the other three models involved incorporating data with a lag phase of 1, 2, and 3 months, respectively. The greatest number of cases was reported during the post-monsoon period each year. Temperature, rainfall, and humidity varied significantly across the pre-monsoon, monsoon, and post-monsoon periods. The best correlation between these three climatic factors and dengue occurrence was at a time lag of 2 months. This study found that temperature, rainfall, and relative humidity significantly affected dengue occurrence in East Delhi. This weather-based dengue empirical model can forecast potential outbreaks 2-month in advance, providing an early warning system for intensifying dengue control measures.

  14. Hybrid complexity modelling of changes to estuary morphology, hydrodynamics and tidal surge water levels at 10 to 200 year timescales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    French, J.; Burningham, H.

    2016-12-01

    Extreme coastal flooding is expected to increase with climate change, especially in estuaries susceptible to tidal surges. Estuary hydrodynamics are well understood and models can predict spatial variation in tide and surge water levels with skill. However, estuary morphological change alters the pathway between sources of flood risk (tides, surges) and receptors (humans, assets, activities) in vulnerable areas. Our ability to predict morphological change at timescales relevant to climate change remains limited, and this hinders quantitative assessment of changing flood risk. Reductionist hydrodynamic and sediment transport models tend to perform poorly at longer timescales and estuary morphodynamics are increasingly modelled using more `synthesist' approaches to capture landform behaviour at 10 to 100+ year timescales. However, non-linear interaction between tides and morphology means that it is useful to retain hydrodynamic complexity to resolve feedbacks between morphological change and tide/surge propagation. This paper presents a new approach to estuary morphological evolution that combines 1D simulation of tidal hydrodynamics with parameterised 2D representation of intertidal sedimentation and erosion under the influence of fetch-limited waves (Estuary Spatial Landscape Evolution Model; ESTEEM). ESTEEM is used in combination with a 2D shallow water equation model (Telemac2D) to simulate changes in 100 to 200-year flood levels that include changes in morphology due to continuing natural sedimentary processes and realignment of flood defences to accommodate sea-level rise. Results for two UK estuaries indicate that hydrodynamics and surge levels change only slightly with present defences in place. Flood defence realignment results in step-changes to the morphology and significant effects on tide and surge water levels. Evolution of the altered morphology tends to counter the hydrodynamic impact, but is sensitive to wind climate, which strongly controls

  15. Depression among Parents Two to Six Years Following the Loss of a Child by Suicide: A Novel Prediction Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nyberg, Tommy; Hed Myrberg, Ida; Omerov, Pernilla; Steineck, Gunnar; Nyberg, Ullakarin

    2016-01-01

    Parents who lose a child by suicide have elevated risks of depression. No clinical prediction tools exist to identify which suicide-bereaved parents will be particularly vulnerable; we aimed to create a prediction model for long-term depression for this purpose. During 2009 and 2010 we collected data using a nationwide study-specific questionnaire among parents in Sweden who had lost a child aged 15-30 by suicide in years 2004-2007. Current depression was assessed with the Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9) and a single question on antidepressant use. We considered 26 potential predictors assumed clinically assessable at the time of loss, including socio-economics, relationship status, history of psychological stress and morbidity, and suicide-related circumstances. We developed a novel prediction model using logistic regression with all subsets selection and stratified cross-validation. The model was assessed for classification performance and calibration, overall and stratified by time since loss. In total 666/915 (73%) participated. The model showed acceptable classification performance (adjusted area under the curve [AUC] = 0.720, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.673-0.766), but performed classification best for those at shortest time since loss. Agreement between model-predicted and observed risks was fair, but with a tendency for underestimation and overestimation for individuals with shortest and longest time since loss, respectively. The identified predictors include female sex (odds ratio [OR] = 1.84); sick-leave (OR = 2.81) or unemployment (OR = 1.64); psychological premorbidity debuting during the last 10 years, before loss (OR = 3.64), or more than 10 years ago (OR = 4.96); suicide in biological relatives (OR = 1.54); with non-legal guardianship during the child's upbringing (OR = 0.48); and non-biological parenthood (OR = 0.22) found as protective. Our prediction model shows promising internal validity, but should be externally validated before

  16. Depression among Parents Two to Six Years Following the Loss of a Child by Suicide: A Novel Prediction Model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tommy Nyberg

    Full Text Available Parents who lose a child by suicide have elevated risks of depression. No clinical prediction tools exist to identify which suicide-bereaved parents will be particularly vulnerable; we aimed to create a prediction model for long-term depression for this purpose.During 2009 and 2010 we collected data using a nationwide study-specific questionnaire among parents in Sweden who had lost a child aged 15-30 by suicide in years 2004-2007. Current depression was assessed with the Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9 and a single question on antidepressant use. We considered 26 potential predictors assumed clinically assessable at the time of loss, including socio-economics, relationship status, history of psychological stress and morbidity, and suicide-related circumstances. We developed a novel prediction model using logistic regression with all subsets selection and stratified cross-validation. The model was assessed for classification performance and calibration, overall and stratified by time since loss.In total 666/915 (73% participated. The model showed acceptable classification performance (adjusted area under the curve [AUC] = 0.720, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.673-0.766, but performed classification best for those at shortest time since loss. Agreement between model-predicted and observed risks was fair, but with a tendency for underestimation and overestimation for individuals with shortest and longest time since loss, respectively. The identified predictors include female sex (odds ratio [OR] = 1.84; sick-leave (OR = 2.81 or unemployment (OR = 1.64; psychological premorbidity debuting during the last 10 years, before loss (OR = 3.64, or more than 10 years ago (OR = 4.96; suicide in biological relatives (OR = 1.54; with non-legal guardianship during the child's upbringing (OR = 0.48; and non-biological parenthood (OR = 0.22 found as protective.Our prediction model shows promising internal validity, but should be externally validated before

  17. Aggression, Sibling Antagonism, and Theory-of-Mind During the First Year of Siblinghood: A Developmental Cascade Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Ju-Hyun; Volling, Brenda L.; Lane, Jonathan D.; Wellman, Henry M.

    2016-01-01

    A developmental cascade model was tested to examine longitudinal associations among firstborn children’s aggression, Theory-of-Mind, and antagonism toward their younger sibling during the first year of siblinghood. Aggression and Theory-of-Mind were assessed before the birth of a sibling, and 4 and 12 months after the birth, and antagonism was examined at 4 and 12 months in a sample of 208 firstborn children (initial M age = 30 months, 56% girls) from primarily European American, middle- class families. Firstborns’ aggression consistently predicted high sibling antagonism both directly and through poorer Theory-of-Mind. Results highlight the importance of examining longitudinal influences across behavioral, social-cognitive, and relational factors that are closely intertwined even from the early years of life. PMID:27096923

  18. A directional Secular Variation Curve for Greece for the last 4500 years: Comparison with regional and global geomagnetic field models

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Marco, E.; Tema, E.; Lanos, P.; Kondopoulou, D.

    2009-12-01

    A total of 64 Greek archaeomagnetic directional data have been used for the establishment of the variation of the Earth’s magnetic field in Greece over the past 4500 years. Most of the data come from archaeological material but some data from Santorini lava flows are also included. The data ages range from Minoan times (~2500 BC) up to the last century with a gap around 10th to 6th century BC. All data have been relocated to Athens (37.97° N, 23.72° E) using the virtual geomagnetic pole method. Data coming from direct measurements available in Greece for the last four centuries have been also added. The secular variation (SV) curves for declination and inclination have been obtained using hierarchical Bayesian modelling. For comparison, the dataset has been also analysed using the bi-variate moving average window technique with 150 years time window shifted by 75 years. The obtained smoothed curves accompanied by a 95 % confidence envelope are compared with archaeomagnetic data from Mediterranean area and with SV curves from nearby countries. The Greek curves have also been compared with the predictions of the SCHA.DIF.3K regional and the CALS7K and ARCH3K global geomagnetic field models. Despite the differences recognised between these models, the Greek archaeomagnetic SV curve is in reasonably good agreement with their basic trends. The proposed directional SV curve can contribute, together with the intensity SV curve previously published for Greece, to the reliable archaeomagnetic dating of Greek artefacts based on the full description of the Earth’s magnetic field (declination, inclination, intensity). It is clear that the continuous update of the dataset with new results from well-dated archaeological material will increase the precision of the SV curve, especially for the time periods poorly covered by data.

  19. Repeatability of stance phase kinematics from a multi-segment foot model in people aged 50 years and older.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnold, John B; Mackintosh, Shylie; Jones, Sara; Thewlis, Dominic

    2013-06-01

    Confidence in 3D multi-segment foot models has been limited by a lack of repeatability data, particularly in older populations that may display unique functional foot characteristics. This study aimed to determine the intra and inter-observer repeatability of stance phase kinematic data from a multi-segment foot model described by Leardini et al. [2] in people aged 50 years or older. Twenty healthy adults participated (mean age 65.4 years SD 8.4). A repeated measures study design was used with data collected from four testing sessions on two days from two observers. Intra (within-day and between-day) and inter-observer coefficient of multiple correlations revealed moderate to excellent similarity of stance phase joint range of motion (0.621-0.975). Relative to the joint range of motion (ROM), mean differences (MD) between sessions were highest for the within-day comparison for all planar ROM at the metatarsus-midfoot articulation (sagittal plane ROM 5.2° vs. 3.9°, MD 3.1°; coronal plane ROM 3.9 vs. 3.1°, MD 2.3°; transverse plane ROM 6.8° vs. 5.16°, MD 3.5°). Consequently, data from the metatarsus-midfoot articulation in the Istituto Ortopedico Rizzoli (IOR) foot model in adults aged over 50 years needs to be considered with respect to the findings of this study. Crown Copyright © 2012. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. Day of the year-based prediction of horizontal global solar radiation by a neural network auto-regressive model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gani, Abdullah; Mohammadi, Kasra; Shamshirband, Shahaboddin; Khorasanizadeh, Hossein; Seyed Danesh, Amir; Piri, Jamshid; Ismail, Zuraini; Zamani, Mazdak

    2016-08-01

    The availability of accurate solar radiation data is essential for designing as well as simulating the solar energy systems. In this study, by employing the long-term daily measured solar data, a neural network auto-regressive model with exogenous inputs (NN-ARX) is applied to predict daily horizontal global solar radiation using day of the year as the sole input. The prime aim is to provide a convenient and precise way for rapid daily global solar radiation prediction, for the stations and their immediate surroundings with such an observation, without utilizing any meteorological-based inputs. To fulfill this, seven Iranian cities with different geographical locations and solar radiation characteristics are considered as case studies. The performance of NN-ARX is compared against the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS). The achieved results prove that day of the year-based prediction of daily global solar radiation by both NN-ARX and ANFIS models would be highly feasible owing to the accurate predictions attained. Nevertheless, the statistical analysis indicates the superiority of NN-ARX over ANFIS. In fact, the NN-ARX model represents high potential to follow the measured data favorably for all cities. For the considered cities, the attained statistical indicators of mean absolute bias error, root mean square error, and coefficient of determination for the NN-ARX models are in the ranges of 0.44-0.61 kWh/m2, 0.50-0.71 kWh/m2, and 0.78-0.91, respectively.

  1. Radiocarbon ages and age models for the past 30,000 years in Bear Lake, Utah and Idaho

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colman, Steven M.; Rosenbaum, J.G.; Kaufman, D.S.; Dean, W.E.; McGeehin, J.P.

    2009-01-01

    Radiocarbon analyses of pollen, ostracodes, and total organic carbon (TOC) provide a reliable chronology for the sediments deposited in Bear Lake over the past 30,000 years. The differences in apparent age between TOC, pollen, and carbonate fractions are consistent and in accord with the origins of these fractions. Comparisons among different fractions indicate that pollen sample ages are the most reliable, at least for the past 15,000 years. The post-glacial radiocarbon data also agree with ages independently estimated from aspartic acid racemization in ostracodes. Ages in the red, siliclastic unit, inferred to be of last glacial age, appear to be several thousand years too old, probably because of a high proportion of reworked, refractory organic carbon in the pollen samples. Age-depth models for five piston cores and the Bear Lake drill core (BL00-1) were constructed by using two methods: quadratic equations and smooth cubic-splinefits. The two types of age models differ only in detail for individual cores, and each approach has its own advantages. Specific lithological horizons were dated in several cores and correlated among them, producing robust average ages for these horizons. The age of the correlated horizons in the red, siliclastic unit can be estimated from the age model for BL00-1, which is controlled by ages above and below the red, siliclastic unit. These ages were then transferred to the correlative horizons in the shorter piston cores, providing control for the sections of the age models in those cores in the red, siliclastic unit. These age models are the backbone for reconstructions of past environmental conditions in Bear Lake. In general, sedimentation rates in Bear Lake have been quite uniform, mostly between 0.3 and 0.8 mm yr-1 in the Holocene, and close to 0.5 mm yr-1 for the longer sedimentary record in the drill core from the deepest part of the lake. Copyright ?? 2009 The Geological Society of America.

  2. Modeled changes in 100 year Flood Risk and Asset Damages within Mapped Floodplains of the Contiguous United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wobus, C. W.; Gutmann, E. D.; Jones, R.; Rissing, M.; Mizukami, N.; Lorie, M.; Mahoney, H.; Wood, A.; Mills, D.; Martinich, J.

    2017-12-01

    A growing body of recent work suggests that the extreme weather events that drive inland flooding are likely to increase in frequency and magnitude in a warming climate, thus increasing monetary damages from flooding in the future. We use hydrologic projections based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to estimate changes in the frequency of modeled 1% annual exceedance probability flood events at 57,116 locations across the contiguous United States (CONUS). We link these flood projections to a database of assets within mapped flood hazard zones to model changes in inland flooding damages throughout the CONUS over the remainder of the 21st century, under two greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios. Our model generates early 21st century flood damages that reasonably approximate the range of historical observations, and trajectories of future damages that vary substantially depending on the GHG emissions pathway. The difference in modeled flood damages between higher and lower emissions pathways approaches $4 billion per year by 2100 (in undiscounted 2014 dollars), suggesting that aggressive GHG emissions reductions could generate significant monetary benefits over the long-term in terms of reduced flood risk. Although the downscaled hydrologic data we used have been applied to flood impacts studies elsewhere, this research expands on earlier work to quantify changes in flood risk by linking future flood exposure to assets and damages at a national scale. Our approach relies on a series of simplifications that could ultimately affect damage estimates (e.g., use of statistical downscaling, reliance on a nationwide hydrologic model, and linking damage estimates only to 1% AEP floods). Although future work is needed to test the sensitivity of our results to these methodological choices, our results suggest that monetary damages from inland flooding could be substantially reduced through more aggressive GHG mitigation policies.

  3. Peak-power estimation equations in 12- to 16-year old children: comparing linear with allometric models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duncan, Michael J; Hankey, Joanne; Nevill, Alan M

    2013-08-01

    This study examined the efficacy of peak-power estimation equations in children using force platform data and determined whether allometric modeling offers a sounder alternative to estimating peak power in pediatric samples. Ninety one boys and girls aged 12-16 years performed 3 countermovement jumps (CMJ) on a force platform. Estimated peak power (PP(est)) was determined using the Harman et al., Sayers SJ, Sayers CMJ, and Canavan and Vescovi equations. All 4 equations were associated with actual peak power (r = 0.893-0.909, all p equations (p allometric model using CMJ height, body mass, and age was then developed with this sample, which predicted 88.8% of the variance in PP(actual) (p equations were cross-validated using the one-third split sample (n = 31), evidencing a significant positive relationship (r = .910, p = .001) and no significant difference (p = .151) between PP(actual) and PP(est) using this equation. The allometric and linear models determined from this study provide accurate models to estimate peak power in children.

  4. Collaborative Care model in mental health. Scope and experiences after three years of activity in Mexico City.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villamil-Salcedo, Valerio; Vargas-Terrez, Blanca E; Díaz-Anzaldúa, Adriana

    2017-05-01

    Aim The aim of this study was to evaluate the experience of the Collaborative Care model with general practitioners (GPs) for diagnosis and treatment of depression and anxiety disorders in primary care centers (PCC). For many years, different ways to address mental health problems in primary care settings have been evaluated. However, there is still debate over how to treat psychiatric conditions in such a context. A cross-sectional design was used. The study was conducted in two consecutive studies in six PCC that serve marginalized population in Mexico City. In the first study, cases were interviewed, diagnosed, and treated by a psychiatrist. In the second study, Collaborative Care model was used and GPs were trained; psychiatrists diagnosed and treated patients but GPs discussed the symptoms and treatment of the patients with the psychiatrist. Findings First study: 18 patients with depressive and/or anxiety disorders were interviewed; these cases were not discussed between the GPs and the psychiatrist. Second study: psychiatrists and GPs conducted joint interviews and cases were discussed. From the 399 evaluated individuals, 38.94% were diagnosed with a depressive disorder. After the Collaborative Care model was applied, GPs were more aware about mental health problems and they were more interested in the identification of these conditions in PCC. Replication studies will help confirm the effectiveness of this model.

  5. Finite element analysis of a bone healing model: 1-year follow-up after internal fixation surgery for femoral fracture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang-Jun, Zhou; Min, Zhao; Ya-Bo, Yan; Wei, Lei; Ren-Fa, Lv; Zhi-Yu, Zhu; Rong-Jian, Chen; Wei-Tao, Yu; Cheng-Fei, Du

    2014-03-01

    Finite element analysis was used to compare preoperative and postoperative stress distribution of a bone healing model of femur fracture, to identify whether broken ends of fractured bone would break or not after fixation dislodgement one year after intramedullary nailing. Method s: Using fast, personalized imaging, bone healing models of femur fracture were constructed based on data from multi-slice spiral computed tomography using Mimics, Geomagic Studio, and Abaqus software packages. The intramedullary pin was removed by Boolean operations before fixation was dislodged. Loads were applied on each model to simulate a person standing on one leg. The von Mises stress distribution, maximum stress, and its location was observed. Results : According to 10 kinds of display groups based on material assignment, the nodes of maximum and minimum von Mises stress were the same before and after dislodgement, and all nodes of maximum von Mises stress were outside the fracture line. The maximum von Mises stress node was situated at the bottom quarter of the femur. The von Mises stress distribution was identical before and after surgery. Conclusion : Fast, personalized model establishment can simulate fixation dislodgement before operation, and personalized finite element analysis was performed to successfully predict whether nail dislodgement would disrupt femur fracture or not.

  6. Multi-year assessment of soil-vegetation-atmosphere transfer (SVAT) modeling uncertainties over a Mediterranean agricultural site

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garrigues, S.; Olioso, A.; Calvet, J.-C.; Lafont, S.; Martin, E.; Chanzy, A.; Marloie, O.; Bertrand, N.; Desfonds, V.; Renard, D.

    2012-04-01

    Vegetation productivity and water balance of Mediterranean regions will be particularly affected by climate and land-use changes. In order to analyze and predict these changes through land surface models, a critical step is to quantify the uncertainties associated with these models (processes, parameters) and their implementation over a long period of time. Besides, uncertainties attached to the data used to force these models (atmospheric forcing, vegetation and soil characteristics, crop management practices...) which are generally available at coarse spatial resolution (>1-10 km) and for a limited number of plant functional types, need to be evaluated. This paper aims at assessing the uncertainties in water (evapotranspiration) and energy fluxes estimated from a Soil Vegetation Atmosphere Transfer (SVAT) model over a Mediterranean agricultural site. While similar past studies focused on particular crop types and limited period of time, the originality of this paper consists in implementing the SVAT model and assessing its uncertainties over a long period of time (10 years), encompassing several cycles of distinct crops (wheat, sorghum, sunflower, peas). The impacts on the SVAT simulations of the following sources of uncertainties are characterized: - Uncertainties in atmospheric forcing are assessed comparing simulations forced with local meteorological measurements and simulations forced with re-analysis atmospheric dataset (SAFRAN database). - Uncertainties in key surface characteristics (soil, vegetation, crop management practises) are tested comparing simulations feeded with standard values from global database (e.g. ECOCLIMAP) and simulations based on in situ or site-calibrated values. - Uncertainties dues to the implementation of the SVAT model over a long period of time are analyzed with regards to crop rotation. The SVAT model being analyzed in this paper is ISBA in its a-gs version which simulates the photosynthesis and its coupling with the stomata

  7. Coupling a three-dimensional subsurface flow model with a land surface model to simulate stream-aquifer-land interactions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, M.; Bisht, G.; Zhou, T.; Chen, X.; Dai, H.; Hammond, G. E.; Riley, W. J.; Downs, J.; Liu, Y.; Zachara, J. M.

    2016-12-01

    A fully coupled three-dimensional surface and subsurface land model is developed and applied to a site along the Columbia River to simulate three-way interactions among river water, groundwater, and land surface processes. The model features the coupling of the Community Land Model version 4.5 (CLM4.5) and a massively-parallel multi-physics reactive tranport model (PFLOTRAN). The coupled model (CLM-PFLOTRAN) is applied to a 400m×400m study domain instrumented with groundwater monitoring wells in the Hanford 300 Area along the Columbia River. CLM-PFLOTRAN simulations are performed at three different spatial resolutions over the period 2011-2015 to evaluate the impact of spatial resolution on simulated variables. To demonstrate the difference in model simulations with and without lateral subsurface flow, a vertical-only CLM-PFLOTRAN simulation is also conducted for comparison. Results show that the coupled model is skillful in simulating stream-aquifer interactions, and the land-surface energy partitioning can be strongly modulated by groundwater-river water interactions in high water years due to increased soil moisture availability caused by elevated groundwater table. In addition, spatial resolution does not seem to impact the land surface energy flux simulations, although it is a key factor for accurately estimating the mass exchange rates at the boundaries and associated biogeochemical reactions in the aquifer. The coupled model developed in this study establishes a solid foundation for understanding co-evolution of hydrology and biogeochemistry along the river corridors under historical and future hydro-climate changes.

  8. 40 CFR 85.1403 - Particulate standard for pre-1994 model year urban buses effective at time of engine rebuild or...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ...) CONTROL OF AIR POLLUTION FROM MOBILE SOURCES Urban Bus Rebuild Requirements § 85.1403 Particulate standard for pre-1994 model year urban buses effective at time of engine rebuild or engine replacement. (a... model year urban buses effective at time of engine rebuild or engine replacement. 85.1403 Section 85...

  9. 40 CFR 86.099-10 - Emission standards for 1999 and later model year Otto-cycle heavy-duty engines and vehicles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... manufacturer's engineering design evaluation using good engineering practice (a statement of which is required... model year Otto-cycle heavy-duty engines and vehicles. 86.099-10 Section 86.099-10 Protection of... Heavy-Duty Vehicles § 86.099-10 Emission standards for 1999 and later model year Otto-cycle heavy-duty...

  10. 40 CFR 86.008-10 - Emission standards for 2008 and later model year Otto-cycle heavy-duty engines and vehicles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... manufacturer's engineering design evaluation using good engineering practice (a statement of which is required... model year Otto-cycle heavy-duty engines and vehicles. 86.008-10 Section 86.008-10 Protection of... Heavy-Duty Vehicles § 86.008-10 Emission standards for 2008 and later model year Otto-cycle heavy-duty...

  11. 40 CFR 86.004-11 - Emission standards for 2004 and later model year diesel heavy-duty engines and vehicles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    .... This section applies to 2004 and later model year diesel HDEs. (a)(1) Exhaust emissions from new 2004 and later model year diesel HDEs shall not exceed the following: (i)(A) Oxides of Nitrogen plus Non... diesel HDE families in any or all of the emissions ABT programs for HDEs, within the restrictions...

  12. 40 CFR 86.007-11 - Emission standards and supplemental requirements for 2007 and later model year diesel heavy-duty...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... later model year diesel HDEs. Section 86.007-11 includes text that specifies requirements that differ... see § 86.004-11.”. (a)(1) Exhaust emissions from new 2007 and later model year diesel HDEs shall not... any or all of the NOX and NOX plus NMHC emissions ABT programs for HDEs, within the restrictions...

  13. Identifying the Optimal Offshore Areas for Wave Energy Converter Deployments in Taiwanese Waters Based on 12-Year Model Hindcasts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hung-Ju Shih

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available A 12-year sea-state hindcast for Taiwanese waters, covering the period from 2005 to 2016, was conducted using a fully coupled tide-surge-wave model. The hindcasts of significant wave height and peak period were employed to estimate the wave power resources in the waters surrounding Taiwan. Numerical simulations based on unstructured grids were converted to structured grids with a resolution of 25 × 25 km. The spatial distribution maps of offshore annual mean wave power were created for each year and for the 12-year period. Waters with higher wave power density were observed off the northern, northeastern, southeastern (south of Green Island and southeast of Lanyu and southern coasts of Taiwan. Five energetic sea areas with spatial average annual total wave energy density of 60–90 MWh/m were selected for further analysis. The 25 × 25 km square grids were then downscaled to resolutions of 5 × 5 km, and five 5 × 5 km optimal areas were identified for wave energy converter deployments. The spatial average annual total wave energy yields at the five optimal areas (S1–(S5 were estimated to be 64.3, 84.1, 84.5, 111.0 and 99.3 MWh/m, respectively. The prevailing wave directions for these five areas lie between east and northeast.

  14. Global and diffuse solar irradiance modelling over north-western Europe using MAR regional climate model : validation and construction of a 30-year climatology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beaumet, Julien; Doutreloup, Sébastien; Fettweis, Xavier; Erpicum, Michel

    2015-04-01

    Solar irradiance modelling is crucial for solar resource management, photovoltaic production forecasting and for a better integration of solar energy in the electrical grid network. For those reasons, an adapted version of the Modèle Atmospheric Regional (MAR) is being developed at the Laboratory of Climatology of the University of Liège in order to provide high quality modelling of solar radiation, wind and temperature over north-western Europe. In this new model version, the radiation scheme has been calibrated using solar irradiance in-situ measurements and CORINE Land Cover data have been assimilated in order to improve the modelling of 10 m wind speed and near-surface temperature. In this study, MAR is forced at its boundary by ERA-40 reanalysis and its horizontal resolution is 10 kilometres. Diffuse radiation is estimated using global radiation from MAR outputs and a calibrated version of Ruiz-Arias et al., (2010) sigmoid model. This study proposes to evaluate the method performance for global and diffuse radiation modelling at both the hourly and daily time scale using data from the European Solar Radiation Atlas database for the weather stations of Uccle (Belgium) and Braunschweig (Germany). After that, a 30-year climatology of global and diffuse irradiance for the 1981-2010 period over western Europe is built. The created data set is then analysed in order to highlight possible regional or seasonal trends. The validity of the results is then evaluated after comparison with trends found in in-situ data or from different studies from the literature.

  15. Mental models and language registers in the psychoanalysis of psychosis: an overview of a thirteen-year analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lombardi, Riccardo

    2003-08-01

    The author suggests that the use of mental models and language registers may help an analysis to proceed, especially in psychosis, when the patient has not yet developed a mental space that will allow him/her the functions of knowledge and containment of emotions. Models, according to Bion, are a primitive approach to abstraction and a manifestation of the analyst's reverie that enables him/her to transform sense data into alpha-elements. Ferrari, in a further development of Bion's theories, hypothesises a relationship between the transference and the internal level of body-mind communication, and proposes the use of language registers to sustain the psychoanalytic process. The author presents several clinical examples from a thirteen-year, four-session-a-week analysis of a psychotic analysand who was initially confused, paranoid and altogether unable to bring self-reflective thought to bear on her overwhelming emotions and had, by the end of the analysis, completely recovered from her psychotic symptoms. The clinical material shows how the technical tools of mental models and language registers helped in the construction of a mental space and spatio-temporal parameters, permitting the patient to tolerate overwhelming concrete emotions and finally to recognise and work through the emotions of an intense transference.

  16. Occurrence of blowing snow events at an alpine site over a 10-year period: Observations and modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vionnet, V.; Guyomarc'h, G.; Naaim Bouvet, F.; Martin, E.; Durand, Y.; Bellot, H.; Bel, C.; Puglièse, P.

    2013-05-01

    Blowing snow events control the evolution of the snow pack in mountainous areas and cause inhomogeneous snow distribution. The goal of this study is to identify the main features of blowing snow events at an alpine site and assess the ability of the detailed snowpack model Crocus to reproduce the occurrence of these events in a 1D configuration. We created a database of blowing snow events observed over 10 years at our experimental site. Occurrences of blowing snow events were divided into cases with and without concurrent falling snow. Overall, snow transport is observed during 10.5% of the time in winter and occurs with concurrent falling snow 37.3% of the time. Wind speed and snow age control the frequency of occurrence. Model results illustrate the necessity of taking the wind-dependence of falling snow grain characteristics into account to simulate periods of snow transport and mass fluxes satisfactorily during those periods. The high rate of false alarms produced by the model is investigated in detail for winter 2010/2011 using measurements from snow particle counters.

  17. Salinity change in the Baltic Sea during the last 8,500 years: evidence, causes and models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Westman, Per; Wastegaard, Stefan; Schoning, Kristian [Stockholm Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Quaternary Research; Gustafsson, Bo [Oceanus Havsundersoekningar, Goeteborg (Sweden); Omstedt, Anders [SMHI, Norrkoeping (Sweden)

    1999-12-01

    The salinity influences which ecosystems will dominate in the coastal area and what property radionuclides have. Salinity is also an important boundary condition for the transport models in the geosphere. Knowledge about the past salinity is important background to evaluate the hydrology and geochemistry in the rock and further to assess the radiological consequences of possible releases from a radioactive repository. This report concerns the salinity in the Baltic Sea during the last 8500 calendar years BP. Shore-level data for the inlet areas and proxy (indirect) data for the palaeo-salinity and the climate are reviewed. These data is further used in a steady-state model for the salt exchange between the Baltic Sea and Kattegat. This will then be extended to a model of the future development of the salinity in the Baltic Sea. We conclude that the changes in the inlet cross-section areas together with a 15% to 60% lower net freshwater input compared to the present input can explain the higher salinity in the Baltic Sea during earlier times.

  18. Salinity change in the Baltic Sea during the last 8,500 years: evidence, causes and models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Westman, Per; Wastegaard, Stefan; Schoning, Kristian; Omstedt, Anders

    1999-12-01

    The salinity influences which ecosystems will dominate in the coastal area and what property radionuclides have. Salinity is also an important boundary condition for the transport models in the geosphere. Knowledge about the past salinity is important background to evaluate the hydrology and geochemistry in the rock and further to assess the radiological consequences of possible releases from a radioactive repository. This report concerns the salinity in the Baltic Sea during the last 8500 calendar years BP. Shore-level data for the inlet areas and proxy (indirect) data for the palaeo-salinity and the climate are reviewed. These data is further used in a steady-state model for the salt exchange between the Baltic Sea and Kattegat. This will then be extended to a model of the future development of the salinity in the Baltic Sea. We conclude that the changes in the inlet cross-section areas together with a 15% to 60% lower net freshwater input compared to the present input can explain the higher salinity in the Baltic Sea during earlier times

  19. Combining Genome-Wide Information with a Functional Structural Plant Model to Simulate 1-Year-Old Apple Tree Architecture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Migault, Vincent; Pallas, Benoît; Costes, Evelyne

    2017-01-01

    In crops, optimizing target traits in breeding programs can be fostered by selecting appropriate combinations of architectural traits which determine light interception and carbon acquisition. In apple tree, architectural traits were observed to be under genetic control. However, architectural traits also result from many organogenetic and morphological processes interacting with the environment. The present study aimed at combining a FSPM built for apple tree, MAppleT, with genetic determinisms of architectural traits, previously described in a bi-parental population. We focused on parameters related to organogenesis (phyllochron and immediate branching) and morphogenesis processes (internode length and leaf area) during the first year of tree growth. Two independent datasets collected in 2004 and 2007 on 116 genotypes, issued from a ‘Starkrimson’ × ‘Granny Smith’ cross, were used. The phyllochron was estimated as a function of thermal time and sylleptic branching was modeled subsequently depending on phyllochron. From a genetic map built with SNPs, marker effects were estimated on four MAppleT parameters with rrBLUP, using 2007 data. These effects were then considered in MAppleT to simulate tree development in the two climatic conditions. The genome wide prediction model gave consistent estimations of parameter values with correlation coefficients between observed values and estimated values from SNP markers ranging from 0.79 to 0.96. However, the accuracy of the prediction model following cross validation schemas was lower. Three integrative traits (the number of leaves, trunk length, and number of sylleptic laterals) were considered for validating MAppleT simulations. In 2007 climatic conditions, simulated values were close to observations, highlighting the correct simulation of genetic variability. However, in 2004 conditions which were not used for model calibration, the simulations differed from observations. This study demonstrates the possibility

  20. Multi-year analysis of distributed glacier mass balance modelling and equilibrium line altitude on King George Island, Antarctic Peninsula

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    U. Falk

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available The South Shetland Islands are located at the northern tip of the Antarctic Peninsula (AP. This region was subject to strong warming trends in the atmospheric surface layer. Surface air temperature increased about 3 K in 50 years, concurrent with retreating glacier fronts, an increase in melt areas, ice surface lowering and rapid break-up and disintegration of ice shelves. The positive trend in surface air temperature has currently come to a halt. Observed surface air temperature lapse rates show a high variability during winter months (standard deviations up to ±1.0 K (100 m−1 and a distinct spatial heterogeneity reflecting the impact of synoptic weather patterns. The increased mesocyclonic activity during the wintertime over the past decades in the study area results in intensified advection of warm, moist air with high temperatures and rain and leads to melt conditions on the ice cap, fixating surface air temperatures to the melting point. Its impact on winter accumulation results in the observed negative mass balance estimates. Six years of continuous glaciological measurements on mass balance stake transects as well as 5 years of climatological data time series are presented and a spatially distributed glacier energy balance melt model adapted and run based on these multi-year data sets. The glaciological surface mass balance model is generally in good agreement with observations, except for atmospheric conditions promoting snow drift by high wind speeds, turbulence-driven snow deposition and snow layer erosion by rain. No drift in the difference between simulated mass balance and mass balance measurements can be seen over the course of the 5-year model run period. The winter accumulation does not suffice to compensate for the high variability in summer ablation. The results are analysed to assess changes in meltwater input to the coastal waters, specific glacier mass balance and the equilibrium line altitude (ELA. The

  1. Geo-Needs: Investigating Models for Improved Access to Geosciences at Two-Year and Minority-Serving Colleges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Her, X.; Turner, S. P.; LaDue, N.; Bentley, A. P.; Petcovic, H. L.; Mogk, D. W.; Cartwright, T.

    2015-12-01

    Geosciences are an important field of study for the future of energy, water, climate resilience, and infrastructure in our country. Geoscience related job growth is expected to steeply climb in the United States, however many of these positions will be left unfilled. One untapped population of Americans is ethnic minorities, who have historically been underrepresented in the geosciences. In 2010, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that black and Hispanics only make 8.1% of geoscience related jobs, while making up nearly 30% of Americans. This pattern of underrepresentation has been attributed to 1) minority serving institutions lacking geoscience programs, 2) low interest in the outdoors due to a lack of opportunity, and 3) negative and low prestigious perceptions of geoscientists. Our project focuses specifically on the first barrier. Preliminary research suggests that only 2.5% of institutions with geoscience programs (n= 609) are also minority serving. The goals of the Geo-Needs project are to identify obstacles to and opportunities for better use of existing educational resources in two-year and minority-serving institutions, and to explore "ideal" models of resources, partnerships, and other support for geoscience faculty and students in these institutions. Four focus group meetings were held in August 2015 bringing administrators, instructors, resource providers, and education researchers together to discuss and develop these models. Activities at the meetings included small and whole group prompted discussion, guest speakers, gallery walks, and individual reflection. Content from the focus group meetings is available at the project's website: http://serc.carleton.edu/geoneeds/index.html. Findings from the meetings can be used to inform future efforts aimed toward broadening access to the geosciences at two-year and minority-serving institutions.

  2. Using the common sense model of illness perceptions to examine osteoarthritis change: a 6-year longitudinal study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaptein, Ad A; Bijsterbosch, Jessica; Scharloo, Margreet; Hampson, Sarah E; Kroon, Herman M; Kloppenburg, Margreet

    2010-01-01

    To examine the association between changes in common sense models and changes in functional status over a 6-year follow-up in patients with osteoarthritis. At baseline and follow-up, osteoarthritis outpatients (N = 241) recruited from a university medical center completed the Illness Perception Questionnaire-Revised (IPQ-R), the Australian/Canadian Osteoarthritis Hand Index, and the Western Ontario and McMasters Universities Osteoarthritis Index. Also, their physician-assessed pain intensity, and biomedical, and clinical measures of medical severity of osteoarthritis were recorded. Functional disability, pain intensity. Over 6 years, functional disability and pain intensity increased. The IPQ-R dimensions of timeline, personal control, and illness coherence became more negative, and emotional representations became less negative (i.e., more accepting). Patients identified as sharing a similar profile of negative changes on the IPQ-R had significantly worse functioning on 2 of 3 outcomes, independent of objectively measured osteoarthritis severity. Changes in illness perceptions were associated with changes in outcomes. Interventions to prevent increasingly negative patterns of illness perceptions over time, with an emphasis on strengthening control cognitions, may benefit functional status outcomes in patients with osteoarthritis.

  3. Overview of the hydraulic characteristics of the ITER Central Solenoid Model Coil conductors after 15 years of test campaigns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brighenti, A.; Bonifetto, R.; Isono, T.; Kawano, K.; Russo, G.; Savoldi, L.; Zanino, R.

    2017-12-01

    The ITER Central Solenoid Model Coil (CSMC) is a superconducting magnet, layer-wound two-in-hand using Nb3Sn cable-in-conduit conductors (CICCs) with the central channel typical of ITER magnets, cooled with supercritical He (SHe) at ∼4.5 K and 0.5 MPa, operating for approximately 15 years at the National Institutes for Quantum and Radiological Science and Technology in Naka, Japan. The aim of this work is to give an overview of the issues related to the hydraulic performance of the three different CICCs used in the CSMC based on the extensive experimental database put together during the past 15 years. The measured hydraulic characteristics are compared for the different test campaigns and compared also to those coming from the tests of short conductor samples when available. It is shown that the hydraulic performance of the CSMC conductors did not change significantly in the sequence of test campaigns with more than 50 cycles up to 46 kA and 8 cooldown/warmup cycles from 300 K to 4.5 K. The capability of the correlations typically used to predict the friction factor of the SHe for the design and analysis of ITER-like CICCs is also shown.

  4. Results from a model of course-based undergraduate research in the first- and second-year chemistry curriculum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weaver, Gabriela

    2014-03-01

    The Center for Authentic Science Practice in Education (CASPiE) is a project funded by the URC program of the NSF Chemistry Division. The purpose of CASPiE was to provide students in first and second year laboratory courses with authentic research experiences as a gateway to more traditional forms of undergraduate research. Each research experience is a 6- to 8-week laboratory project based on and contributing to the research work of the experiment's author through data or preparation of samples. The CASPiE program has resulted in a model for engaging students in undergraduate research early in their college careers. To date, CASPiE has provided that experience to over 6000 students at 17 different institutions. Evaluation data collected has included student surveys, interviews and longitudinal analysis of performance. We have found that students' perceptions of their understanding of the material and the discipline increase over the course of the semester, whereas they are seen to decrease in the control courses. Students demonstrate a greater ability to explain the meaning and purpose of their experimental procedures and results and provide extensions to the experimental design, compared not only to control courses but also compared to inquiry-based courses. Longitudinal analysis of grades indicates a possible benefit to performance in courses related to the discipline two and three years later. A similar implementation in biology courses has demonstrated an increase in critical thinking scores. Work supported by the National Science Foundation, Division of Chemistry.

  5. Asian dust transport during the springtime of year 2001 and 2002 with a nested version of dust transport model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uno, I.; Satake, S.; Hara, Y.; Takemura, T.; Wang, Z.; Carmichael, G. R.

    2002-12-01

    Number of yellow sand (Kosa) observation has been surprisingly increasing in Japan and Korea since 2000. Especially extremely high PM10 concentration (exceeding 0.5mg/m3) was observed in Japan several times in 2002, so we have an urgent scientific and political need to forecast/reproduce the detailed dust emission, transport and deposition processes. Intensive modeling studies have already been conducted to examine transport of Sahara dust and its impact on global radiation budget. One of the important differences between the Sahara desert and the Asian desert (mainly Gobi Desert and Takla Makan Desert) is the elevation of the dust source. The averaged elevation of Gobi Desert is approximately 1500 to 2500 m. These deserts are surrounded by high mountains. Furthermore advance of the recent manmade desertification made complicated land use patches for the arid region in Inner Mongolia. Therefore the development of a high horizontal resolution dust model is highly required. In this study, we will report a newly developed nested version of the dust transport model (as a part of Chemical weather FORecasting System; CFORS) in order to have a better understanding of Asian springtime heady dust episode. Here, CFORS is a multi-tracer, on-line, system built within the RAMS mesoscale meteorological model. A unique feature of nested CFORS is that multiple tracers are run on-line in RAMS under the two-way nesting, so that all the fine-scale on-line meteorological information such as 3-D winds, boundary-layer turbulence, surface fluxes and precipitation amount are directly used by the dust emission and transport at every time step. As a result, nested-CFORS produces with high time resolution 3-dimensional fields of dust distributions and major meteorological parameters under the nesting capability of RAMS. In this work, the dust transport model simulation with the nested-CFORS was conducted between March and April of the years 2001 and 2002, respectively. The sensititivy

  6. Effects of body habitus on internal radiation dose calculations using the 5-year-old anthropomorphic male models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Tianwu; Kuster, Niels; Zaidi, Habib

    2017-08-01

    Computational phantoms are commonly used in internal radiation dosimetry to assess the amount and distribution pattern of energy deposited in various parts of the human body from different internal radiation sources. Radiation dose assessments are commonly performed on predetermined reference computational phantoms while the argument for individualized patient-specific radiation dosimetry exists. This study aims to evaluate the influence of body habitus on internal dosimetry and to quantify the uncertainties in dose estimation correlated with the use of fixed reference models. The 5-year-old IT’IS male phantom was modified to match target anthropometric parameters, including body weight, body height and sitting height/stature ratio (SSR), determined from reference databases, thus enabling the creation of 125 5-year-old habitus-dependent male phantoms with 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th and 90th percentile body morphometries. We evaluated the absorbed fractions and the mean absorbed dose to the target region per unit cumulative activity in the source region (S-values) of F-18 in 46 source regions for the generated 125 anthropomorphic 5-year-old hybrid male phantoms using the Monte Carlo N-Particle eXtended general purpose Monte Carlo transport code and calculated the absorbed dose and effective dose of five 18F-labelled radiotracers for children of various habitus. For most organs, the S-value of F-18 presents stronger statistical correlations with body weight, standing height and sitting height than BMI and SSR. The self-absorbed fraction and self-absorbed S-values of F-18 and the absorbed dose and effective dose of 18F-labelled radiotracers present with the strongest statistical correlations with body weight. For 18F-Amino acids, 18F-Brain receptor substances, 18F-FDG, 18F-L-DOPA and 18F-FBPA, the mean absolute effective dose differences between phantoms of different habitus and fixed reference models are 11.4%, 11.3%, 10.8%, 13.3% and 11.4%, respectively. Total body

  7. The impact of combined ENSO and PDO on the PNA climate: a 1,000-year climate modeling study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yu, B. [Environment Canada, Climate Data and Analysis Section, Climate Research Division, Toronto, ON (Canada); Zwiers, F.W. [Environment Canada, Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Climate Research Division, Victoria (Canada)

    2007-12-15

    This study analyzes the atmospheric response to the combined Pacific interannual ENSO and decadal-interdecadal PDO variability, with a focus on the Pacific-North American (PNA) sector, using a 1,000-year long integration of the Canadian Center for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) coupled climate model. Both the tropospheric circulation and the North American temperature suggest an enhanced PNA-like climate response and impacts on North America when ENSO and PDO variability are in phase. The anomalies of the centers of action for the PNA-like pattern are significantly different from zero and the anomaly pattern is field significant. In association with the stationary wave anomalies, large stationary wave activity fluxes appear in the mid-high latitudes originating from the North Pacific and flowing downstream toward North America. There are significant Rossby wave source anomalies in the extratropical North Pacific and in the subtropical North Pacific. In addition, the axis of the Pacific storm track shifts southward with the positive PNA. Atmospheric heating anomalies associated with ENSO variability are confined primarily to the tropics. There is an anomalous heating center over the northeast Pacific, together with anomalies with the same polarity in the tropical Pacific, for the PDO variability. The in-phase combination of ENSO and PDO would in turn provide anomalous atmospheric energy transports towards North America from both the Tropical Pacific and the North Pacific, which tends to favor the occurrence of stationary wave anomalies and would lead to a PNA-like wave anomaly structure. The modeling results also confirm our analysis based on the observational record in the twentieth century. (orig.)

  8. A review of the oral health-related quality of life (OHRQL) model for dental hygiene: Eighteen years later.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gadbury-Amyot, C C; Austin, K S; Simmer-Beck, M

    2017-05-05

    The purpose of this paper is to review available evidence to determine the impact of the oral health-related quality of life (OHRQL) Model for Dental Hygiene on education, research, and practice. A search was conducted in PubMed using the search terms oral health-related quality of life, OHRQL, and dental hygiene and limited to publications between 1998 and 2016. Google Scholar was also used to identify citations for the two original OHRQL model papers to capture the literature widely read by practicing dental hygienists but not indexed in PubMed. A total of 40 publications met the predetermined search strategy. Full publications were obtained and reviewed to determine how this research is being used in education, research, and practice. The OHRQL is being utilized to a very limited degree in education, research, and practice. The literature shows how the OHRQL is actively being used in the school where the model originated in addition to a dental hygiene programme in Japan. Studies have been conducted on a variety of research instruments, including the OHRQL, designed to capture OHRQL outcomes. Japanese researchers have used the OHRQL in studies designed to determine the impact of oral healthcare delivery on patients' oral health-related quality of life. Eighteen years of the literature confirms that the OHRQL is being used minimally in education, research, and practice. Greater emphasis is needed around the collection and assessment of oral health-related quality of life measures for providing patient-centred care. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  9. Reduced-complexity multi-site rainfall generation: one million years over night using the model TripleM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breinl, Korbinian; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Girons Lopez, Marc

    2017-04-01

    We assess uncertainties of multi-site rainfall generation across spatial scales and different climatic conditions. Many research subjects in earth sciences such as floods, droughts or water balance simulations require the generation of long rainfall time series. In large study areas the simulation at multiple sites becomes indispensable to account for the spatial rainfall variability, but becomes more complex compared to a single site due to the intermittent nature of rainfall. Weather generators can be used for extrapolating rainfall time series, and various models have been presented in the literature. Even though the large majority of multi-site rainfall generators is based on similar methods, such as resampling techniques or Markovian processes, they often become too complex. We think that this complexity has been a limit for the application of such tools. Furthermore, the majority of multi-site rainfall generators found in the literature are either not publicly available or intended for being applied at small geographical scales, often only in temperate climates. Here we present a revised, and now publicly available, version of a multi-site rainfall generation code first applied in 2014 in Austria and France, which we call TripleM (Multisite Markov Model). We test this fast and robust code with daily rainfall observations from the United States, in a subtropical, tropical and temperate climate, using rain gauge networks with a maximum site distance above 1,000km, thereby generating one million years of synthetic time series. The modelling of these one million years takes one night on a recent desktop computer. In this research, we first start the simulations with a small station network of three sites and progressively increase the number of sites and the spatial extent, and analyze the changing uncertainties for multiple statistical metrics such as dry and wet spells, rainfall autocorrelation, lagged cross correlations and the inter-annual rainfall

  10. Emergency Preparedness in the Workplace: The Flulapalooza Model for Mass Vaccination.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swift, Melanie D; Aliyu, Muktar H; Byrne, Daniel W; Qian, Keqin; McGown, Paula; Kinman, Patricia O; Hanson, Katherine Louise; Culpepper, Demoyne; Cooley, Tamara J; Yarbrough, Mary I

    2017-09-01

    To explore whether an emergency preparedness structure is a feasible, efficient, and sustainable way for health care organizations to manage mass vaccination events. We used the Hospital Incident Command System to conduct a 1-day annual mass influenza vaccination event at Vanderbilt University Medical Center over 5 successive years (2011-2015). Using continuous quality improvement principles, we assessed whether changes in layout, supply management, staffing, and documentation systems improved efficiency. A total of 66 591 influenza vaccines were administered at 5 annual Flulapalooza events; 13 318 vaccines per event on average. Changes to the physical layout, staffing mix, and documentation processes improved vaccination efficiency 74%, from approximately 38 to 67 vaccines per hour per vaccinator, while reducing overall staffing needs by 38%. An unexpected finding was the role of social media in facilitating active engagement. Health care organizations can use a closed point-of-dispensing model and Hospital Incident Command System to conduct mass vaccination events, and can adopt the "Flulapalooza method" as a best practice model to enhance efficiency.

  11. Implications of CISNET modeling on number needed to screen and mortality reduction with digital mammography in women 40-49 years old.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hendrick, R Edward; Helvie, Mark A; Hardesty, Lara A

    2014-12-01

    In this article, we evaluate the implications of recent Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET) modeling of benefits and harms of screening to women 40-49 years old using annual digital mammography. We show that adding annual digital mammography of women 40-49 years old to biennial screening of women 50-74 years old increases lives saved by 27% and life-years gained by 47%. Annual digital mammography in women 40-49 years old saves 42% more lives and life-years than biennial digital mammography. The number needed to screen to save one life (NNS) with annual digital mammography in women 40-49 years old is 588.

  12. Medical Student Perceptions of the Learning Environment at the End of the First Year: A 28-Medical School Collaborative.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skochelak, Susan E; Stansfield, R Brent; Dunham, Lisette; Dekhtyar, Michael; Gruppen, Larry D; Christianson, Charles; Filstead, William; Quirk, Mark

    2016-09-01

    Accreditation and professional organizations have recognized the importance of measuring medical students' perceptions of the learning environment, which influences well-being and professional competency development, to optimize professional development. This study was conducted to explore interactions between students' perceptions of the medical school learning environment, student demographic variables, and students' professional attributes of empathy, coping, tolerance of ambiguity, and patient-centeredness to provide ideas for improving the learning environment. Twenty-eight medical schools at 38 campuses recruited 4,664 entering medical students to participate in the two-cohort longitudinal study (2010-2014 or 2011-2015). The authors employed chi-square tests and analysis of variance to examine the relationship between Medical School Learning Environment Survey (MSLES) scores and student characteristics. The authors used mixed-effects models with random school and campus effects to test the overall variances accounted for in MSLES scores at the end of the first year of medical school. Student attributes and demographic characteristics differed significantly across schools but accounted for only 2.2% of the total variance in MSLES scores. Medical school campus explained 15.6% of the variance in MSLES scores. At year's end, students' perceptions toward the learning environment, as reported on the MSLES, differed significantly according to the medical school campus where they trained. Further studies are needed to identify specific factors, such as grading policies, administrative support, and existence of learning communities, which may influence perceptions of the learning environment at various schools. Identifying such variables would assist schools in developing a positive learning environment.

  13. [The changing profile of caregivers of persons aged 65 years and over with disabilities within a persisting family care model].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zueras, Pilar; Spijker, Jeroen; Blanes, Amand

    The increasing participation of women in the workforce may make it difficult to sustain the current model of elderly care. The aim of this article was to determine the changing sociodemographic profile of informal elderly caregivers with disabilities, the interaction between employment and care, and the view of the public on the responsibility of that care. Cross-sectional analysis of secondary data from four national surveys were used: the disability surveys held in 1999 (N=3,936) and 2008 (N=5,257), the 2011-12 National Health Survey (N=439), and the Family and Gender survey of 2012 (N=1,359). They were analysed using contingency tables based on gender and age. Half of the informal caregivers were women aged 45 to 64 years. Between 1999 and 2011-12 they became more concentrated in the 55-64 age-bracket, among whom participation in the workforce doubled from 20% to 40%. Increased care for men was associated with unemployment. Care work had a negative impact on working life, with greater impact among women and those who cared for elderly people with severe disabilities. Less likely to consider that elderly care provision should rest on family are 45-54 year-old economically active women (only 42%) or those who are more educated (40%), compared to 60% of economically inactive women and 55% of less educated women. Economically active and educated women are less inclined to family-based care, but assume it independently of their workforce participation, whereas males do so according to their availability. Copyright © 2017 SEGG. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  14. Evaluation of land surface model simulations of evapotranspiration over a 12 year crop succession: impact of the soil hydraulic properties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garrigues, S.; Olioso, A.; Calvet, J.-C.; Martin, E.; Lafont, S.; Moulin, S.; Chanzy, A.; Marloie, O.; Desfonds, V.; Bertrand, N.; Renard, D.

    2014-10-01

    Evapotranspiration has been recognized as one of the most uncertain term in the surface water balance simulated by land surface models. In this study, the SURFEX/ISBA-A-gs simulations of evapotranspiration are assessed at local scale over a 12 year Mediterranean crop succession. The model is evaluated in its standard implementation which relies on the use of the ISBA pedotransfer estimates of the soil properties. The originality of this work consists in explicitly representing the succession of crop cycles and inter-crop bare soil periods in the simulations and assessing its impact on the dynamic of simulated and measured evapotranspiration over a long period of time. The analysis focuses on key soil parameters which drive the simulation of evapotranspiration, namely the rooting depth, the soil moisture at saturation, the soil moisture at field capacity and the soil moisture at wilting point. The simulations achieved with the standard values of these parameters are compared to those achieved with the in situ values. The portability of the ISBA pedotransfer functions is evaluated over a typical Mediterranean crop site. Various in situ estimates of the soil parameters are considered and distinct parametrization strategies are tested to represent the evapotranspiration dynamic over the crop succession. This work shows that evapotranspiration mainly results from the soil evaporation when it is continuously simulated over a Mediterranean crop succession. The evapotranspiration simulated with the standard surface and soil parameters of the model is largely underestimated. The deficit in cumulative evapotranspiration amounts to 24% over 12 years. The bias in daily daytime evapotranspiration is -0.24 mm day-1. The ISBA pedotransfer estimates of the soil moisture at saturation and at wilting point are overestimated which explains most of the evapotranspiration underestimation. The overestimation of the soil moisture at wilting point causes the underestimation of

  15. The Vermont model for rural HIV care delivery: eleven years of outcome data comparing urban and rural clinics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grace, Christopher; Kutzko, Deborah; Alston, W Kemper; Ramundo, Mary; Polish, Louis; Osler, Turner

    2010-01-01

    Provision of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) care in rural areas has encountered unique barriers. To compare medical outcomes of care provided at 3 HIV specialty clinics in rural Vermont with that provided at an urban HIV specialty clinic. This was a retrospective cohort study. Over an 11-year period 363 new patients received care, including 223 in the urban clinic and 140 in the rural clinics. Patients in the 2 cohorts were demographically similar and had similar initial CD4 counts and viral loads. There was no difference between the urban and rural clinic patients receiving Pneumocystis carinii prophylaxis (83.5% vs 86%, P= .38) or antiretroviral therapy (96.8% vs 97.5%, P= .79). Both rural and urban cohorts had similar decreases in median viral load from 1996 to 2006 (3,876 copies/mL to vs 8,331 copies/mL to vs 16%-71.4%, P= .11). Rural and urban cohorts had similar increases in median CD4 counts (275/mm(3)-350/mm(3) vs 182 cells/mm(3)-379/mm(3)). A repeated measures regression analysis showed that neither fall in viral load (P= .91) nor rise in CD4 count (P= .64) were associated with urban versus rural site of care. Survival times, using a Cox proportional hazards model, were similar for urban and rural patients (hazard ratio for urban = 0.80 [95% CI, 0.39-1.61; P= .53]). This urban outreach model provides similar quality of care to persons receiving care in rural areas of Vermont as compared to those receiving care in the urban center.

  16. Modeling stability in the somatotype of children and youngsters from 10 to 16 years of the Madeira growth study (Portugal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martine Thomis

    2004-06-01

    Full Text Available This investigation aims at the study of somatotype´s (tri-dimensional structure stability in children and youngsters from Madeira (Portugal. Based on a stratified and proportional sample and from a mixed-longitudinal study, we obtained information from 309 subjects (157 boys, 152 girls that participed in ‘Madeira Growth Study’. Somatotype was estimated with the Heath-Carter method, and statistical analysis was based on quasi-simplex models to optimize the multivariate data structure. Mplus was used in all calculations. Results from fitting models to the multidimensional nature of the data have shown that somatotype is strongly stable over the age range of 10 to 16 years. This characteristic highlights its reduced capability to change, and thus inform us about its prediction. RESUMO Este estudo pretende investigar a estabilidade do somatótipo, enquanto entidade tridimensional, de crianças e jovens Madeirenses (Portugal. Com base numa amostra estratificada proporcional, e a partir de um delineamento longitudinal-misto, foi obtida informação de 309 sujeitos dos dois sexos (157 rapazes e 152 moças que participaram no ‘Estudo de Crescimento da Madeira’. O somatótipo foi estimado com base no procedimento de Heath-Carter, e a análise estatística recorreu à modelação quasi-simplex para solucionar a estrutura multivariada dos dados. Os cálculos foram efectuados no software Mplus. Na sua essência, os resultados do ajustamento dos diferentes modelos à estrutura do somatótipo sugerem a sua forte estabilidade no intervalo etário dos 10 aos 16 anos. Esta característica salienta a sua reduzida alteração, e consequente previsibilidade desenvolvimentalista.

  17. In-use NOx emissions from model year 2010 and 2011 heavy-duty diesel engines equipped with aftertreatment devices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Misra, Chandan; Collins, John F; Herner, Jorn D; Sax, Todd; Krishnamurthy, Mohan; Sobieralski, Wayne; Burntizki, Mark; Chernich, Don

    2013-07-16

    The California Air Resources Board (ARB) undertook this study to characterize the in-use emissions of model year (MY) 2010 or newer diesel engines. Emissions from four trucks: one equipped with an exhaust gas recirculation (EGR) and three equipped with EGR and a selective catalytic reduction (SCR) device were measured on two different routes with three different payloads using a portable emissions measurement system (PEMS) in the Sacramento area. Results indicated that brake-specific NOx emissions for the truck equipped only with an EGR were independent of the driving conditions. Results also showed that for typical highway driving conditions, the SCR technology is proving to be effective in controlling NOx emissions. However, under operations where the SCR's do not reach minimum operating temperature, like cold starts and some low load/slow speed driving conditions, NOx emissions are still elevated. The study indicated that strategies used to maintain exhaust temperature above a certain threshold, which are used in some of the newer SCRs, have the potential to control NOx emissions during certain low-load/slow speed driving conditions.

  18. The deaf strong hospital program: a model of diversity and inclusion training for first-year medical students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thew, Denise; Smith, Scott R; Chang, Christopher; Starr, Matt

    2012-11-01

    Recent research indicates that the cultural competence training students receive during medical school might not adequately address the issues that arise when caring for patients of different cultures. Because of their unique communication, linguistic, and cultural issues, incorporating deaf people who use sign language into cultural competence education at medical schools might help to bridge this gap in cross-cultural education. The Deaf Strong Hospital (DSH) program at the University of Rochester School of Medicine and Dentistry, started in 1998, exposes first-year medical students to the issues that are relevant to providing effective patient care and to establishing multicultural sensitivity early in their medical education. Because medical students better acquire cross-cultural competence through hands-on experience rather than through lectures, the DSH program, which includes a role-reversal exercise in which medical students play the role of the patients, provides such a model for other medical schools and health care training centers to use in teaching future health care providers how to address the relevant cultural, linguistic, and communication needs of both their deaf patients and their non-English-speaking patients. This article describes the DSH program curriculum, shares findings from both medical students' short-term and long-term postprogram evaluations, and provides a framework for the implementation of a broader cultural and linguistic sensitivity training program specific to working with and improving the quality of health care among deaf people.

  19. Promoting Metacognition in First Year Anatomy Laboratories Using Plasticine Modeling and Drawing Activities: A Pilot Study of the "Blank Page" Technique

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naug, Helen L.; Colson, Natalie J.; Donner, Daniel G.

    2011-01-01

    Many first year students of anatomy and physiology courses demonstrate an inability to self-regulate their learning. To help students increase their awareness of their own learning in a first year undergraduate anatomy course, we piloted an exercise that incorporated the processes of (1) active learning: drawing and plasticine modeling and (2)…

  20. Behavioural Outcomes of Four-Year-Old Children Prenatally Exposed to Methadone or Buprenorphine: A Test of Three Risk Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Konijnenberg, Carolien; Lund, Ingunn Olea; Melinder, Annika

    2015-01-01

    It is still under debate whether the reported effects of opioid maintenance therapy (OMT) on child behaviour are a direct effect of prenatal exposure, or whether other factors are involved. This prospective cohort study investigated three models: the teratogenic risk model, the maternal risk model, and a combined risk model in a group of 35…

  1. Prediction and validation of pool fire development in enclosures by means of CFD Models for risk assessment of nuclear power plants (Poolfire) - Report year 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Hees, P.; Wahlqvist, J.; Kong, D.; Hostikka, S.; Sikanen, T.; Husted, B.; Magnusson, T.; Joerud, F.

    2013-05-01

    Fires in nuclear power plants can be an important hazard for the overall safety of the facility. One of the typical fire sources is a pool fire. It is therefore important to have good knowledge on the fire behaviour of pool fire and be able to predict the heat release rate by prediction of the mass loss rate. This project envisages developing a pyrolysis model to be used in CFD models. In this report the activities for second year are reported, which is an overview of the experiments conducted, further development and validation of models and cases study to be selected in year 3. (Author)

  2. Prediction and validation of pool fire development in enclosures by means of CFD Models for risk assessment of nuclear power plants (Poolfire) - Report year 2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    van Hees, P.; Wahlqvist, J.; Kong, D. [Lund Univ., Lund (Sweden); Hostikka, S.; Sikanen, T. [VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland (Finland); Husted, B. [Haugesund Univ. College, Stord (Norway); Magnusson, T. [Ringhals AB, Vaeroebacka (Sweden); Joerud, F. [European Spallation Source (ESS), Lund (Sweden)

    2013-05-15

    Fires in nuclear power plants can be an important hazard for the overall safety of the facility. One of the typical fire sources is a pool fire. It is therefore important to have good knowledge on the fire behaviour of pool fire and be able to predict the heat release rate by prediction of the mass loss rate. This project envisages developing a pyrolysis model to be used in CFD models. In this report the activities for second year are reported, which is an overview of the experiments conducted, further development and validation of models and cases study to be selected in year 3. (Author)

  3. Spatial and temporal modelling of fluvial aggradation in the Hasli Valley (Swiss Alps) during the last 1300 years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Llorca, Jaime; Schulte, Lothar; Carvalho, Filipe

    2016-04-01

    process. Results suggest a longitudinal decrease of sedimentation rates from the apex towards the distal section of the delta plain. Differences in rates are also found within each cross-section (e.g. channel-levée: higher rates; interdistributary depression: lower rates), suggesting an asymmetric growth of the floodplain. A GIS paleosurfaces model was executed to calculate the fluvial sediment storage, which was subdivided in 300-year time slices, thus contributing to identify temporal trends in floodplain aggradation. The results were analyzed with regard to external drivers that control the sedimentation processes in the Haslital delta, such as climate and/or anthropogenic factors (land-use changes, hydraulic management), as well as the influence of the internal system settings. The facies-based approach provides an explanation of both the spatial and temporal components of delta plain formation; and produces valid information for local flood risk management, concerning the problem of alpine floodplains aggradation.

  4. Simulations of the Greenland ice sheet 100 years into the future with the full Stokes model Elmer/Ice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seddik, H.; Greve, R.; Zwinger, T.; Gillet-Chaulet, F.; Gagliardini, O.

    2011-12-01

    The full Stokes thermo-mechanically coupled model Elmer/Ice is applied to the Greenland ice sheet. Elmer/Ice employs the finite element method to solve the full Stokes equations, the temperature evolution equation and the evolution equation of the free surface. The general framework of this modeling effort is a contribution to the Sea-level Response to Ice Sheet Evolution (SeaRISE) assessment project, a community-organized effort to estimate the likely range of ice sheet contributions to sea level rise over the next few hundred years (http://tinyurl.com/srise-lanl, http://tinyurl.com/srise-umt). The present geometry (surface and basal topographies) is derived from data where the basal topography was created with the preservation of the troughs at the Jakobshavn Ice Stream, Helheim, Kangerdlussuaq and Petermann glaciers. A mesh of the computational domain is created using an initial footprint which contains elements of 5 km horizontal resolution and to limit the number elements on the footprint while maximizing the spatial resolution, an anisotropic mesh adaptation scheme is employed based on the Hessian matrix of the observed surface velocities. The adaptation is carried out with the tool YAMS and the final footprint is vertically extruded to form a 3D mesh of 320880 elements with 17 equidistant, terrain-following layers. The numerical solution of the Stokes and the heat transfer equations employs direct solvers with stabilization procedures. The boundary conditions are such that the temperature at the surface uses the present-day mean annual air temperature given by a parameterization or directly from the available data, the geothermal heat flux at the bedrock is given by data and the lateral sides are open boundaries. A non-linear Weertman law is used for the basal sliding. Results for the SeaRISE 2011 sensitivity experiments are presented so that six different experiments have been conducted, grouped in two sets. The Set C (three experiments) applies a change to

  5. Changes of net primary productivity in China during recent 11 years detected using an ecological model driven by MODIS data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yibo; Ju, Weimin; He, Honglin; Wang, Shaoqiang; Sun, Rui; Zhang, Yuandong

    2013-03-01

    Net primary productivity (NPP) is an important component of the terrestrial carbon cycle. Accurately mapping the spatial-temporal variations of NPP in China is crucial for global carbon cycling study. In this study the process-based Boreal Ecosystem Productivity Simulator (BEPS) was employed to study the changes of NPP in China's ecosystems for the period from 2000 to 2010. The BEPS model was first validated using gross primary productivity (GPP) measured at typical flux sites and forest NPP measured at different regions. Then it was driven with leaf area index (LAI) inversed from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) reflectance and land cover products and meteorological data interpolated from observations at 753 national basic meteorological stations to simulate NPP at daily time steps and a spatial resolution of 500 m from January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2010. Validations show that BEPS is able to capture the seasonal variations of tower-based GPP and the spatial variability of forest NPP in different regions of China. Estimated national total of annual NPP varied from 2.63 to 2.84Pg C·yr-1, averaging 2.74 Pg C·yr-1 during the study period. Simulated terrestrial NPP shows spatial patterns decreasing from the east to the west and from the south to the north, in association with land cover types and climate. South-west China makes the largest contribution to the national total of NPP while NPP in the North-west account for only 3.97% of the national total. During the recent 11 years, the temporal changes of NPP were heterogamous. NPP increased in 63.8% of China's landmass, mainly in areas north of the Yangtze River and decreased in most areas of southern China, owing to the low temperature freezing in early 2008 and the severe drought in late 2009.

  6. 4.5 Years of Seafloor Uplift in Middle Valley, Juan de Fuca Ridge: Modeling a Source Mechanism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Inderbitzen, K. E.; Becker, K.; Davis, E. E.

    2012-12-01

    Currently, in-situ seafloor and basement pressures are continuously monitored and recorded by an ODP subseafloor hydrogeological observatory (CORK) located in Middle Valley, Juan de Fuca Ridge. Hole 857D was drilled in 1991 in thickly sedimented crust to a depth of 936 mbsf and instrumented with an original CORK that was replaced in 1996. A small hydrothermal field consisting of two isolated chimneys and several diffuse flow sites is located ~800 meters northeast of Hole 857D and has been visited periodically by submersible/ROV since 1999. Declining seafloor pressure recorded at 857D showed apparent seafloor uplift over a 4.5 year period, and this is supported by differences in wellhead depths measured by the submersible Alvin. The rate of uplift is ~0.6 m/yr over its duration (2005-2010) and has reduced mean seafloor pressure by ~28 kPa, equivalent to nearly 3 meters of head. This uplift rate is four times the re-inflation rate observed at Axial Seamount following its 1998 eruption. Initially the uplift observed at 857D did not have any observed effect on local high-temperature hydrothermal venting. However operations during 2010 in Middle Valley revealed not only distinct changes at the hydrothermal field to the northeast, but also a shutdown of high-temperature venting to the north of 857D. A high-resolution pressure data logger was deployed at 857D in June 2010, providing a concurrent dataset for seafloor and basement pressures in addition to the downhole logger. We will present new results from Middle Valley including the latest downloaded data, and show results of numerical modeling that help constrain the potential source mechanism for physical uplift in this region.

  7. Target Allocation Methodology for China's Provinces: Energy Intensity in the 12th FIve-Year Plan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ohshita, Stephanie; Price, Lynn

    2011-03-21

    Experience with China's 20% energy intensity improvement target during the 11th Five-Year Plan (FYP) (2006-2010) has shown the challenges of rapidly setting targets and implementing measures to meet them. For the 12th FYP (2011-2015), there is an urgent need for a more scientific methodology to allocate targets among the provinces and to track physical and economic indicators of energy and carbon saving progress. This report provides a sectoral methodology for allocating a national energy intensity target - expressed as percent change in energy per unit gross domestic product (GDP) - among China's provinces in the 12th FYP. Drawing on international experience - especially the European Union (EU) Triptych approach for allocating Kyoto carbon targets among EU member states - the methodology here makes important modifications to the EU approach to address an energy intensity rather than a CO{sub 2} emissions target, and for the wider variation in provincial energy and economic structure in China. The methodology combines top-down national target projections and bottom-up provincial and sectoral projections of energy and GDP to determine target allocation of energy intensity targets. Total primary energy consumption is separated into three end-use sectors - industrial, residential, and other energy. Sectoral indicators are used to differentiate the potential for energy saving among the provinces. This sectoral methodology is utilized to allocate provincial-level targets for a national target of 20% energy intensity improvement during the 12th FYP; the official target is determined by the National Development and Reform Commission. Energy and GDP projections used in the allocations were compared with other models, and several allocation scenarios were run to test sensitivity. The resulting allocations for the 12th FYP offer insight on past performance and offer somewhat different distributions of provincial targets compared to the 11th FYP. Recommendations for

  8. Fleet average NOx emission performance of 2004 model year light-duty vehicles, light-duty trucks and medium-duty passenger vehicles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2006-05-01

    The On-Road Vehicle and Engine Emission Regulations came into effect on January 1, 2004. The regulations introduced more stringent national emission standards for on-road vehicles and engines, and also required that companies submit reports containing information concerning the company's fleets. This report presented a summary of the regulatory requirements relating to nitric oxide (NO x ) fleet average emissions for light-duty vehicles, light-duty trucks, and medium-duty passenger vehicles under the new regulations. The effectiveness of the Canadian fleet average NO x emission program at achieving environmental performance objectives was also evaluated. A summary of the fleet average NO x emission performance of individual companies was presented, as well as the overall Canadian fleet average of the 2004 model year based on data submitted by companies in their end of model year reports. A total of 21 companies submitted reports covering 2004 model year vehicles in 10 test groups, comprising 1,350,719 vehicles of the 2004 model year manufactured or imported for the purpose of sale in Canada. The average NO x value for the entire Canadian LDV/LDT fleet was 0.2016463 grams per mile. The average NO x values for the entire Canadian HLDT/MDPV fleet was 0.321976 grams per mile. It was concluded that the NO x values for both fleets were consistent with the environmental performance objectives of the regulations for the 2004 model year. 9 tabs

  9. Change Management Model for Implementing an Effective First-Year Experience Program in the Community College Setting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tucker, Joy C.

    2015-01-01

    This study provides evidence that systematic management of change can facilitate the implementation of first-year experience programming that leads to improved results in retention and student success for community college students. The study includes four major themes: (a) first-year experience, (b) change management, (c) change leadership, and…

  10. Testing the Monetary Model for Exchange Rate Determination in South Africa: Evidence from 101 Years of Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Riané de Bruyn

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Evidence in favor of the monetary model of exchange rate determination for the South African Rand is, at best, mixed. A co-integrating relationship between the nominal exchange rate and monetary fundamentals forms the basis of the monetary model. With the econometric literature suggesting that the span of the data, not the frequency, determines the power of the co-integration tests and the studies on South Africa primarily using short-span data from the post-Bretton Woods era, we decided to test the long-run monetary model of exchange rate determination for the South African Rand relative to the US Dollar using annual data from 1910 – 2010. The results provide some support for the monetary model in that long-run co-integration is found between the nominal exchange rate and the output and money supply deviations. However, the theoretical restrictions required by the monetary model are rejected. A vector error-correction model identifies both the nominal exchange rate and the monetary fundamentals as the channel for the adjustment process of deviations from the long-run equilibrium exchange rate. A subsequent comparison of nominal exchange rate forecasts based on the monetary model with those of the random walk model suggests that the forecasting performance of the monetary model is superior.

  11. 40 CFR 1039.102 - What exhaust emission standards and phase-in allowances apply for my engines in model year 2014...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... for any engine family in the 56-130 kW power category is 2.3 g/kW-hr for model years 2012 and 2013...-unit engine family in the 75-130 kW power category may be certified to meet the standards for PM, NMHC... the first four years of the Tier 4 standards for the applicable power category, as allowed in § 1039...

  12. Bacterial meningitis epidemiology and return of Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A cases in Burkina Faso in the five years following MenAfriVac mass vaccination campaign.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alpha Oumar Diallo

    Full Text Available Historically, Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A (NmA caused large meningitis epidemics in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2010, Burkina Faso became the first country to implement a national meningococcal serogroup A conjugate vaccine (MACV campaign. We analyzed nationwide meningitis surveillance data from Burkina Faso for the 5 years following MACV introduction.We examined Burkina Faso's aggregate reporting and national laboratory-confirmed case-based meningitis surveillance data from 2011-2015. We calculated incidence (cases per 100,000 persons, and described reported NmA cases.In 2011-2015, Burkina Faso reported 20,389 cases of suspected meningitis. A quarter (4,503 of suspected meningitis cases with cerebrospinal fluid specimens were laboratory-confirmed as either S. pneumoniae (57%, N. meningitidis (40%, or H. influenzae (2%. Average adjusted annual national incidence of meningococcal meningitis was 3.8 (range: 2.0-10.2 annually and was highest among infants aged <1 year (8.4. N. meningitidis serogroup W caused the majority (64% of meningococcal meningitis among all age groups. Only six confirmed NmA cases were reported in 2011-2015. Five cases were in children who were too young (n = 2 or otherwise not vaccinated (n = 3 during the 2010 MACV mass vaccination campaign; one case had documented MACV receipt, representing the first documented MACV failure.Meningococcal meningitis incidence in Burkina Faso remains relatively low following MACV introduction. However, a substantial burden remains and NmA transmission has persisted. MACV integration into routine childhood immunization programs is essential to ensure continued protection.

  13. Bacterial meningitis epidemiology and return of Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A cases in Burkina Faso in the five years following MenAfriVac mass vaccination campaign.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diallo, Alpha Oumar; Soeters, Heidi M; Yameogo, Issaka; Sawadogo, Guetawendé; Aké, Flavien; Lingani, Clément; Wang, Xin; Bita, Andre; Fall, Amadou; Sangaré, Lassana; Ouédraogo-Traoré, Rasmata; Medah, Isaïe; Bicaba, Brice; Novak, Ryan T

    2017-01-01

    Historically, Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A (NmA) caused large meningitis epidemics in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2010, Burkina Faso became the first country to implement a national meningococcal serogroup A conjugate vaccine (MACV) campaign. We analyzed nationwide meningitis surveillance data from Burkina Faso for the 5 years following MACV introduction. We examined Burkina Faso's aggregate reporting and national laboratory-confirmed case-based meningitis surveillance data from 2011-2015. We calculated incidence (cases per 100,000 persons), and described reported NmA cases. In 2011-2015, Burkina Faso reported 20,389 cases of suspected meningitis. A quarter (4,503) of suspected meningitis cases with cerebrospinal fluid specimens were laboratory-confirmed as either S. pneumoniae (57%), N. meningitidis (40%), or H. influenzae (2%). Average adjusted annual national incidence of meningococcal meningitis was 3.8 (range: 2.0-10.2 annually) and was highest among infants aged <1 year (8.4). N. meningitidis serogroup W caused the majority (64%) of meningococcal meningitis among all age groups. Only six confirmed NmA cases were reported in 2011-2015. Five cases were in children who were too young (n = 2) or otherwise not vaccinated (n = 3) during the 2010 MACV mass vaccination campaign; one case had documented MACV receipt, representing the first documented MACV failure. Meningococcal meningitis incidence in Burkina Faso remains relatively low following MACV introduction. However, a substantial burden remains and NmA transmission has persisted. MACV integration into routine childhood immunization programs is essential to ensure continued protection.

  14. Application of Cox and Parametric Survival Models to Assess Social Determinants of Health Affecting Three-Year Survival of Breast Cancer Patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohseny, Maryam; Amanpour, Farzaneh; Mosavi-Jarrahi, Alireza; Jafari, Hossein; Moradi-Joo, Mohammad; Davoudi Monfared, Esmat

    2016-01-01

    Breast cancer is one of the most common causes of cancer mortality in Iran. Social determinants of health are among the key factors affecting the pathogenesis of diseases. This cross-sectional study aimed to determine the social determinants of breast cancer survival time with parametric and semi-parametric regression models. It was conducted on male and female patients diagnosed with breast cancer presenting to the Cancer Research Center of Shohada-E-Tajrish Hospital from 2006 to 2010. The Cox proportional hazard model and parametric models including the Weibull, log normal and log-logistic models were applied to determine the social determinants of survival time of breast cancer patients. The Akaike information criterion (AIC) was used to assess the best fit. Statistical analysis was performed with STATA (version 11) software. This study was performed on 797 breast cancer patients, aged 25-93 years with a mean age of 54.7 (±11.9) years. In both semi-parametric and parametric models, the three-year survival was related to level of education and municipal district of residence (P<0.05). The AIC suggested that log normal distribution was the best fit for the three-year survival time of breast cancer patients. Social determinants of health such as level of education and municipal district of residence affect the survival of breast cancer cases. Future studies must focus on the effect of childhood social class on the survival times of cancers, which have hitherto only been paid limited attention.

  15. Comparing Mortality of Peritoneal and Hemodialysis Patients in the First 2 Years of Dialysis Therapy: A Marginal Structural Model Analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lukowsky, Lilia R.; Mehrotra, Rajnish; Kheifets, Leeka; Arah, Onyebuchi A.; Nissenson, Allen R.; Kalantar-Zadeh, Kamyar

    2013-01-01

    Background and objectives There are conflicting research results about the survival differences between hemodialysis and peritoneal dialysis, especially during the first 2 years of dialysis treatment. Given the challenges of conducting randomized trials, differential rates of modality switch and

  16. One-year experience of a regional service model of teleconsultation for planning and treatment of complex thoracoabdominal aortic disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chisci, Emiliano; de Donato, Gianmarco; Fargion, Aaron; Ventoruzzo, Giorgio; Parlani, Gianbattista; Setacci, Carlo; Ercolini, Leonardo; Michelagnoli, Stefano

    2018-03-01

    The objective of this study was to report the methodology and 1-year experience of a regional service model of teleconsultation for planning and treatment of complex thoracoabdominal aortic disease (TAAD). Complex TAADs without a feasible conventional surgical repair were prospectively evaluated by vascular surgeons of the same public health service (National Health System) located in a huge area of 22,994 km 2 with 3.7 million inhabitants and 11 tertiary hospitals. Surgeons evaluated computed tomography scans and clinical details that were placed on a web platform (Google Drive; Google, Mountain View, Calif) and shared by all surgeons. Patients gave informed consent for the teleconsultation. The surgeon who submits a case discusses in detail his or her case and proposes a possible therapeutic strategy. The other surgeons suggest other solutions and options in terms of grafts, techniques, or access to be used. Computed tomography angiography, angiography, and clinical outcomes of cases are then presented at the following telemeetings, and a final agreement of the operative strategy is evaluated. Teleconsultation is performed using a web conference service (WebConference.com; Avaya Inc, Basking Ridge, NJ) every month. An inter-rater agreement statistic was calculated, and the κ value was interpreted according to Altman's criteria for computed tomography angiography measurements. The rate of participation was constant (mean number of surgeons, 11; range, 9-15). Twenty-four complex TAAD cases were discussed for planning and operation during the study period. The interobserver reliability recorded was moderate (κ = 0.41-0.60) to good (κ = 0.61-0.80) for measurements of proximal and distal sealing and very good (κ = 0.81-1) for detection of any target vessel angulation >60 degrees, significant calcification (circumferential), and thrombus presence (>50%). The concordance for planning and therapeutic strategy among all participants was complete in 16 cases. In

  17. A prediction model for 5-year cardiac mortality in patients with chronic heart failure using {sup 123}I-metaiodobenzylguanidine imaging

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nakajima, Kenichi; Matsuo, Shinro [Kanazawa University Hospital, Department of Nuclear Medicine, Kanazawa (Japan); Nakata, Tomoaki [Sapporo Medical University School of Medicine, Second Department of Internal Medicine (Cardiology), Sapporo (Japan); Hakodate-Goryoukaku Hospital, Department of Cardiology, Hakodate (Japan); Yamada, Takahisa [Osaka Prefectural General Medical Center, Department of Cardiology, Osaka (Japan); Yamashina, Shohei [Toho University Omori Medical Center, Department of Cardiovascular Medicine, Tokyo (Japan); Momose, Mitsuru [Tokyo Women' s Medical University, Department of Nuclear Medicine, Tokyo (Japan); Kasama, Shu [Cardiovascular Hospital of Central Japan, Department of Cardiology, Shibukawa (Japan); Matsui, Toshiki [Social Insurance Shiga General Hospital, Department of Cardiology, Otsu (Japan); Travin, Mark I. [Albert Einstein Medical College, Department of Cardiology and Nuclear Medicine, Montefiore Medical Center, Bronx, NY (United States); Jacobson, Arnold F. [GE Healthcare, Medical Diagnostics, Princeton, NJ (United States)

    2014-09-15

    Prediction of mortality risk is important in the management of chronic heart failure (CHF). The aim of this study was to create a prediction model for 5-year cardiac death including assessment of cardiac sympathetic innervation using data from a multicenter cohort study in Japan. The original pooled database consisted of cohort studies from six sites in Japan. A total of 933 CHF patients who underwent {sup 123}I-metaiodobenzylguanidine (MIBG) imaging and whose 5-year outcomes were known were selected from this database. The late MIBG heart-to-mediastinum ratio (HMR) was used for quantification of cardiac uptake. Cox proportional hazard and logistic regression analyses were used to select appropriate variables for predicting 5-year cardiac mortality. The formula for predicting 5-year mortality was created using a logistic regression model. During the 5-year follow-up, 205 patients (22 %) died of a cardiac event including heart failure death, sudden cardiac death and fatal acute myocardial infarction (64 %, 30 % and 6 %, respectively). Multivariate logistic analysis selected four parameters, including New York Heart Association (NYHA) functional class, age, gender and left ventricular ejection fraction, without HMR (model 1) and five parameters with the addition of HMR (model 2). The net reclassification improvement analysis for all subjects was 13.8 % (p < 0.0001) by including HMR and its inclusion was most effective in the downward reclassification of low-risk patients. Nomograms for predicting 5-year cardiac mortality were created from the five-parameter regression model. Cardiac MIBG imaging had a significant additive value for predicting cardiac mortality. The prediction formula and nomograms can be used for risk stratifying in patients with CHF. (orig.)

  18. Modelling the potential impact of a sugar-sweetened beverage tax on stroke mortality, costs and health-adjusted life years in South Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mercy Manyema

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Stroke poses a growing human and economic burden in South Africa. Excess sugar consumption, especially from sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs, has been associated with increased obesity and stroke risk. Research shows that price increases for SSBs can influence consumption and modelling evidence suggests that taxing SSBs has the potential to reduce obesity and related diseases. This study estimates the potential impact of an SSB tax on stroke-related mortality, costs and health-adjusted life years in South Africa. Methods A proportional multi-state life table-based model was constructed in Microsoft Excel (2010. We used consumption data from the 2012 South African National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, previously published own and cross price elasticities of SSBs and energy balance equations to estimate changes in daily energy intake and BMI arising from increased SSB prices. Stroke relative risk, and prevalent years lived with disability estimates from the Global Burden of Disease Study and modelled disease epidemiology estimates from a previous study, were used to estimate the effect of the BMI changes on the burden of stroke. Results Our model predicts that an SSB tax may avert approximately 72 000 deaths, 550 000 stroke-related health-adjusted life years and over ZAR5 billion, (USD400 million in health care costs over 20 years (USD296-576 million. Over 20 years, the number of incident stroke cases may be reduced by approximately 85 000 and prevalent cases by about 13 000. Conclusions Fiscal policy has the potential, as part of a multi-faceted approach, to mitigate the growing burden of stroke in South Africa and contribute to the achievement of the target set by the Department of Health to reduce relative premature mortality (less than 60 years from non-communicable diseases by the year 2020.

  19. Validation of risk prediction models for the development of HBV-related HCC: a retrospective multi-center 10-year follow-up cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seo, Yeon Seok; Jang, Byoung Kuk; Um, Soon Ho; Hwang, Jae Seok; Han, Kwang-Hyub; Kim, Sang Gyune; Lee, Kwan Sik; Kim, Seung Up; Kim, Young Seok; Lee, Jung Il

    2017-12-22

    Recently, modified REACH-B (mREACH-B) risk prediction model for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development was proposed. We validated the accuracy of the mREACH-B model and compared its accuracy with those of other prediction models. Between 2006 and 2012, 1,241 patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) were recruited. All patients underwent transient elastography at enrollment. The median age of the study population (840 males, 401 females) was 49 years. The median PAGE-B, LSM-HCC, and mREACH-B values were 10, 10, and 8, respectively. Among patients without cirrhosis ( n = 940, 75.7%), the median REACH-B value was 9. During the follow-up period (median 77.4 months), 66 (5.3%) and 83 (6.7%) patients developed HCC and liver-related events (LRE), respectively. Higher liver stiffness (LS) independently predicted HCC (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.047) and LRE development (HR = 1.047) (all P HCC (AUC = 0.824 at 3-year and 0.750 at 5-year) and LRE development (AUC = 0.782 at 3-year and 0.739 at 5-year) (all P HCC (AUC = 0.715-0.809 at 3-year and 0.719-0.742 at 5-year for HCC; AUC = 0.704-0.777 at 3-year and 0.721-0.735 at 5-year for LRE). Among patients without cirrhosis, mREACH-B predicted HCC (AUC = 0.803 vs. 0.654-0.816 at 3-year and 0.684 vs. 0.639-0.738 at 5-year) and LRE development (AUC = 0.734 vs. 0.619-0.789 at 3-year and 0.674 vs. 0.626-0.729 at 5-year) similarly to PAGE-B, REACH-B, and LSM-HCC. mREACH-B appropriately predicted HCC and LRE development in patients with CHB and showed similar or superior accuracy to those of PAGE-B, REACH-B, and LSM-HCC.

  20. Repository seal materials performance for a SALT Repository Project 5-year code/model development plan: Draft

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1987-06-01

    This document describes an integrated laboratory testing and model development effort for the seal system for a high-level nuclear waste repository in salt. The testing and modeling efforts are designed to determine seal material response in the repository environment, to provide models of seal system components for performance assessment, and to assist in the development of seal system designs. A code/model development and performance analysis program will be performed to predict the short- and long-term response of seal materials and seal components. The results from these analyses will be used to support the material testing activities on this contract and to support performance assessment activities that are conducted in other parts of the Salt Repository Project (SRP). 48 refs., 15 figs., 4 tabs

  1. FMCSA Safety Program Effectiveness Measurement: Carrier Intervention Effectiveness Model (CIEM), Version 1.1 Report for Fiscal Year 2014 Interventions

    Science.gov (United States)

    2018-04-01

    The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA), in cooperation with the John A. Volpe National Transportation Systems Center (Volpe), has developed a quantitative model to measure the effectiveness of motor carrier interventions in terms of ...

  2. FMCSA safety program effectiveness measurement : Carrier Intervention Effectiveness Model (CIEM), Version 1.1, report for fiscal year 2013 interventions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-04-01

    The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA), in cooperation with the John A. Volpe National Transportation Systems Center (Volpe), has developed a quantitative model to measure the effectiveness of motor carrier interventions in terms of ...

  3. FMCSA safety program effectiveness measurement: carrier intervention effectiveness model (CIEM), version 1.1 : report for fiscal year 2013 interventions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-04-01

    The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA), in cooperation with the John A. Volpe National Transportation Systems Center (Volpe), has developed a quantitative model to measure the effectiveness of motor carrier interventions in terms of ...

  4. The Effect of Teaching Model ‘Learning Cycles 5E’ toward Students’ Achievement in Learning Mathematic at X Years Class SMA Negeri 1 Banuhampu 2013/2014 Academic Year

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yeni, N.; Suryabayu, E. P.; Handayani, T.

    2017-02-01

    Based on the survey showed that mathematics teacher still dominated in teaching and learning process. The process of learning is centered on the teacher while the students only work based on instructions provided by the teacher without any creativity and activities that stimulate students to explore their potential. Realized the problem above the writer interested in finding the solution by applying teaching model ‘Learning Cycles 5E’. The purpose of his research is to know whether teaching model ‘Learning Cycles 5E’ is better than conventional teaching in teaching mathematic. The type of the research is quasi experiment by Randomized Control test Group Only Design. The population in this research were all X years class students. The sample is chosen randomly after doing normality, homogeneity test and average level of students’ achievement. As the sample of this research was X.7’s class as experiment class used teaching model learning cycles 5E and X.8’s class as control class used conventional teaching. The result showed us that the students achievement in the class that used teaching model ‘Learning Cycles 5E’ is better than the class which did not use the model.

  5. Global data set of biogenic VOC emissions calculated by the MEGAN model over the last 30 years

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sindelarova, K.; Granier, Claire; Bouarar, I.; Guenther, Alex B.; Tilmes, S.; Stavrakou, T.; Muller, J. F.; Kuhn, U.; Stefani, P.; Knorr, W.

    2014-09-09

    The Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGANv2.1) together with the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) meteorological fields were used to create a global emission dataset of biogenic VOCs available on a monthly basis for the time period of 1980 - 2010. This dataset is called MEGAN-MACC. The model estimated mean annual total BVOC emission of 760 Tg(C) yr1 consisting of isoprene (70%), monoterpenes (11%), methanol (6%), acetone (3%), sesquiterpenes (2.5%) and other BVOC species each contributing less than 2 %. Several sensitivity model runs were performed to study the impact of different model input and model settings on isoprene estimates and resulted in differences of * 17% of the reference isoprene total. A greater impact was observed for sensitivity run applying parameterization of soil moisture deficit that led to a 50% reduction of isoprene emissions on a global scale, most significantly in specific regions of Africa, South America and Australia. MEGAN-MACC estimates are comparable to results of previous studies. More detailed comparison with other isoprene in ventories indicated significant spatial and temporal differences between the datasets especially for Australia, Southeast Asia and South America. MEGAN-MACC estimates of isoprene and*-pinene showed a reasonable agreement with surface flux measurements in the Amazon andthe model was able to capture the seasonal variation of emissions in this region.

  6. How Art Works: The National Endowment for the Arts' Five-Year Research Agenda, with a System Map and Measurement Model. Appendix A & B

    Science.gov (United States)

    National Endowment for the Arts, 2012

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents two appendices supporting the "How Art Works: The National Endowment for the Arts' Five-Year Research Agenda, with a System Map and Measurement Model" report. In Appendix A, brief descriptions of relevant studies and datasets for each node in the "How Art Works" system map are presented. This appendix is meant to supply…

  7. The Effect of Training Parents in Couples' Communication Model on Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder Symptoms in 4-9 Year-Old Students in Isfahan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shariat, Arghavan; Malekpour, Mokhtar; Ghamarani, Amir

    2013-01-01

    Attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is one of the most common neuropsychological childhood disorders that causes inconvenience to children, families, and the society. The objective of the present research is to investigate the effect of teaching Couples' Communication Model on the symptoms of ADHD in 4-9 year-old students. For this…

  8. Computer simulation model for the striped bass young-of-the-year population in the Hudson River. [Effects of entrainment and impingement at power plants on population dynamics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eraslan, A.H.; Van Winkle, W.; Sharp, R.D.; Christensen, S.W.; Goodyear, C.P.; Rush, R.M.; Fulkerson, W.

    1975-09-01

    This report presents a daily transient (tidal-averaged), longitudinally one-dimensional (cross-section-averaged) computer simulation model for the assessment of the entrainment and impingement impacts of power plant operations on young-of-the-year populations of the striped bass, Morone saxatilis, in the Hudson River.

  9. Failure-To-Thrive, Maltreatment and the Behavior and Development of 6-Year-Old Children from Low-Income, Urban Families: A Cumulative Risk Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerr, Mia A.; Black, Maureen M.; Krishnakumar, Ambika

    2000-01-01

    A cumulative risk model was used to examine the relationship among failure-to-thrive (FIT), maltreatment, and four aspects of children's development (cognitive performance, adaptive functioning at school, classroom behavior, and behavior at home) in 193 6-year-olds. Risk status was negatively associated with the four developmental outcomes.…

  10. 40 CFR 86.005-10 - Emission standards for 2005 and later model year Otto-cycle heavy-duty engines and vehicles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... emissions from new 2005 and later model year Otto-cycle HDEs, except for Otto-cycle HDEs subject to the... its Otto-cycle HDE families in any or all of the emissions ABT programs for HDEs, within the... measured under transient operating conditions. (C) Idle carbon monoxide. For all Otto-cycle HDEs utilizing...

  11. An Integrated Model of Academic Self-Concept Development: Academic Self-Concept, Grades, Test Scores, and Tracking over 6 Years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marsh, Herbert W.; Pekrun, Reinhard; Murayama, Kou; Arens, A. Katrin; Parker, Philip D.; Guo, Jiesi; Dicke, Theresa

    2018-01-01

    Our newly proposed integrated academic self-concept model integrates 3 major theories of academic self-concept formation and developmental perspectives into a unified conceptual and methodological framework. Relations among math self-concept (MSC), school grades, test scores, and school-level contextual effects over 6 years, from the end of…

  12. Using the Continuum of Design Modelling Techniques to Aid the Development of CAD Modeling Skills in First Year Industrial Design Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Storer, I. J.; Campbell, R. I.

    2012-01-01

    Industrial Designers need to understand and command a number of modelling techniques to communicate their ideas to themselves and others. Verbal explanations, sketches, engineering drawings, computer aided design (CAD) models and physical prototypes are the most commonly used communication techniques. Within design, unlike some disciplines,…

  13. The model SIRANE for atmospheric urban pollutant dispersion. PART III: Validation against NO2 yearly concentration measurements in a large urban agglomeration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soulhac, L.; Nguyen, C. V.; Volta, P.; Salizzoni, P.

    2017-10-01

    We present a validation study of an updated version of the SIRANE model, whose results have been systematically compared to concentrations of nitrogen dioxide collected over the whole urban agglomeration of Lyon. We model atmospheric dispersion of nitrogen oxides emitted by road traffic, industries and domestic heating. The meteorological wind field is computed by a pre-processor using data collected at a ground level monitoring station. Model results are compared with hourly concentrations measured at 15 monitoring stations over the whole year (2008). Further 75 passive diffusion samplers were used during 3 periods of 2 weeks to get a detailed spatial distribution over the west part of the city. An analysis of the model results depending on the variability of the meteorological input allows us to identify the causes for peculiar bad performances of the model and to identify possible improvements of the parameterisations implemented in it.

  14. Conceptual and numerical models of groundwater flow in the Ogallala aquifer in Gregory and Tripp Counties, South Dakota, water years 1985--2009

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Kyle W.; Putnam, Larry D.

    2013-01-01

    The Ogallala aquifer is an important water resource for the Rosebud Sioux Tribe in Gregory and Tripp Counties in south-central South Dakota and is used for irrigation, public supply, domestic, and stock water supplies. To better understand groundwater flow in the Ogallala aquifer, conceptual and numerical models of groundwater flow were developed for the aquifer. A conceptual model of the Ogallala aquifer was used to analyze groundwater flow and develop a numerical model to simulate groundwater flow in the aquifer. The MODFLOW–NWT model was used to simulate transient groundwater conditions for water years 1985–2009. The model was calibrated using statistical parameter estimation techniques. Potential future scenarios were simulated using the input parameters from the calibrated model for simulations of potential future drought and future increased pumping. Transient simulations were completed with the numerical model. A 200-year transient initialization period was used to establish starting conditions for the subsequent 25-year simulation of water years 1985–2009. The 25-year simulation was discretized into three seasonal stress periods per year and used to simulate transient conditions. A single-layer model was used to simulate flow and mass balance in the Ogallala aquifer with a grid of 133 rows and 282 columns and a uniform spacing of 500 meters (1,640 feet). Regional inflow and outflow were simulated along the western and southern boundaries using specified-head cells. All other boundaries were simulated using no-flow cells. Recharge to the aquifer occurs through precipitation on the outcrop area. Model calibration was accomplished using the Parameter Estimation (PEST) program that adjusted individual model input parameters and assessed the difference between estimated and model-simulated values of hydraulic head and base flow. This program was designed to estimate parameter values that are statistically the most likely set of values to result in the

  15. Academic Performance of First-Year Students at a College of Pharmacy in East Tennessee: Models for Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clavier, Cheri Whitehead

    2013-01-01

    With the increase of students applying to pharmacy programs, it is imperative that admissions committees choose appropriate measures to analyze student readiness. The purpose of this research was to identify significant factors that predict the academic performance, defined as grade point average (GPA) at the end of the first professional year, of…

  16. A Simple Stochastic Model with Environmental Transmission Explains Multi-Year Periodicity in Outbreaks of Avian Flu

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wang, R.H.; Jin, Z.; Liu, Q.X.; van de Koppel, J.; Alonso, D.

    2012-01-01

    Avian influenza virus reveals persistent and recurrent outbreaks in North American wild waterfowl, and exhibits major outbreaks at 2-8 years intervals in duck populations. The standard susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) framework, which includes seasonal migration and reproduction, but lacks

  17. A simple stochastic model with environmental transmission explains multi-year periodicity in outbreaks of avian flu

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wang, R.H.; Jin, Z.; Liu, Q.X.; Van de Koppel, J.; Alonso, D.

    2012-01-01

    Avian influenza virus reveals persistent and recurrent outbreaks in North American wild waterfowl, and exhibits major outbreaks at 2–8 years intervals in duck populations. The standard susceptible-infected- recovered (SIR) framework, which includes seasonal migration and reproduction, but lacks

  18. A view of progress in the numerical modeling of physical characteristics of the World Ocean in the light of sixty-year experience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarkisyan, A. S.

    2015-05-01

    In view of the 60th anniversary of the pioneering oceanographic work on the numerical modeling of dynamical characteristics of the ocean [1], the author has decided to present his view of the principal milestones in the progress of the numerical modeling of climatic characteristics of the ocean. This progress is shown schematically and conventionally as a single a table consisting of two lines: (A) synthesis of measurement data models and (B) theory and calculation of sea currents. Line A consists of the following stages: reference surface method, diagnostic method, diagnostics-adaptation, and four-dimensional analysis. Line B is as follows: Ekman's school, numerical modeling of a barotropic and then baroclinic ocean, modeling of individual basins with high resolution, and modeling of the World Ocean with high resolution and allowance for ice cover. This paper briefly reviews and analyzes the results of each of the abovementioned stages. The author sympathizes with line A because he believes that the most realistic results for characteristics of scientific interest are obtained by a synthesis of models and measurement data, with an optimal choice of the model integration time. Unfortunately, studies in both directions have often used unreasonably long integration times (50-100 years). In this case, models even with a high resolution (0.1° of grid spacing) become inadequate and analyze strange characteristics, such as meridional overturning or kinetic energy averaged over the entire column of the world ocean, which actually have no scientific significance.

  19. Modeling a thick unsaturated zone at San Gorgonio Pass, California: lessons learned after five years of artificial recharge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flint, Alan L.; Ellett, Kevin M.; Christensen, Allen H.; Martin, Peter

    2012-01-01

    The information flow among the tasks of framework assessment, numerical modeling, model forecasting and hind casting, and system-performance monitoring is illustrated. Results provide an understanding of artificial recharge in high-altitude desert settings where large vertical distances may separate application ponds from their target aquifers.Approximately 3.8 million cubic meters of surface water was applied to spreading ponds from 2003–2007 to artificially recharge the underlying aquifer through a 200-meter thick unsaturated zone in the San Gorgonio Pass area in southern California. A study was conducted between 1997 and 2003, and a numerical model was developed to help determine the suitability of the site for artificial recharge. Ongoing monitoring results indicated that the existing model needed to be modified and recalibrated to more accurately predict artificial recharge at the site. The objective of this work was to recalibrate the model by using observation of the application rates, the rise and fall of the water level above a perching layer, and the approximate arrival time to the water table during the 5-yr monitoring period following initiation of long-term artificial recharge. Continuous monitoring of soil-matric potential, temperature, and water levels beneath the site indicated that artificial recharge reached the underlying water table between 3.75 and 4.5 yr after the initial application of the recharge water. The model was modified to allow the simulation to more adequately match the perching layer dynamics and the time of arrival at the water table. The instrumentation also showed that the lag time between changes in application of water at the surface and the response at the perching layer decreased from about 4 mo to less than 1 mo due to the wet-up of the unsaturated zone and the increase in relative permeability. The results of this study demonstrate the importance of iteratively monitoring and modeling the unsaturated zone in layered

  20. A 5-year Chlamydia vaccination programme could reverse disease-related koala population decline: predictions from a mathematical model using field data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Craig, Andrew P; Hanger, Jon; Loader, Jo; Ellis, William A H; Callaghan, John; Dexter, Cathryn; Jones, Darryl; Beagley, Kenneth W; Timms, Peter; Wilson, David P

    2014-07-16

    Many koala populations around Australia are in serious decline, with a substantial component of this decline in some Southeast Queensland populations attributed to the impact of Chlamydia. A Chlamydia vaccine for koalas is in development and has shown promise in early trials. This study contributes to implementation preparedness by simulating vaccination strategies designed to reverse population decline and by identifying which age and sex category it would be most effective to target. We used field data to inform the development and parameterisation of an individual-based stochastic simulation model of a koala population endemic with Chlamydia. The model took into account transmission, morbidity and mortality caused by Chlamydia infections. We calibrated the model to characteristics of typical Southeast Queensland koala populations. As there is uncertainty about the effectiveness of the vaccine in real-world settings, a variety of potential vaccine efficacies, half-lives and dosing schedules were simulated. Assuming other threats remain constant, it is expected that current population declines could be reversed in around 5-6 years if female koalas aged 1-2 years are targeted, average vaccine protective efficacy is 75%, and vaccine coverage is around 10% per year. At lower vaccine efficacies the immunological effects of boosting become important: at 45% vaccine efficacy population decline is predicted to reverse in 6 years under optimistic boosting assumptions but in 9 years under pessimistic boosting assumptions. Terminating a successful vaccination programme at 5 years would lead to a rise in Chlamydia prevalence towards pre-vaccination levels. For a range of vaccine efficacy levels it is projected that population decline due to endemic Chlamydia can be reversed under realistic dosing schedules, potentially in just 5 years. However, a vaccination programme might need to continue indefinitely in order to maintain Chlamydia prevalence at a sufficiently low level

  1. Artificial neural networks versus proportional hazards Cox models to predict 45-year all-cause mortality in the Italian Rural Areas of the Seven Countries Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Background Projection pursuit regression, multilayer feed-forward networks, multivariate adaptive regression splines and trees (including survival trees) have challenged classic multivariable models such as the multiple logistic function, the proportional hazards life table Cox model (Cox), the Poisson’s model, and the Weibull’s life table model to perform multivariable predictions. However, only artificial neural networks (NN) have become popular in medical applications. Results We compared several Cox versus NN models in predicting 45-year all-cause mortality (45-ACM) by 18 risk factors selected a priori: age; father life status; mother life status; family history of cardiovascular diseases; job-related physical activity; cigarette smoking; body mass index (linear and quadratic terms); arm circumference; mean blood pressure; heart rate; forced expiratory volume; serum cholesterol; corneal arcus; diagnoses of cardiovascular diseases, cancer and diabetes; minor ECG abnormalities at rest. Two Italian rural cohorts of the Seven Countries Study, made up of men aged 40 to 59 years, enrolled and first examined in 1960 in Italy. Cox models were estimated by: a) forcing all factors; b) a forward-; and c) a backward-stepwise procedure. Observed cases of deaths and of survivors were computed in decile classes of estimated risk. Forced and stepwise NN were run and compared by C-statistics (ROC analysis) with the Cox models. Out of 1591 men, 1447 died. Model global accuracies were extremely high by all methods (ROCs > 0.810) but there was no clear-cut superiority of any model to predict 45-ACM. The highest ROCs (> 0.838) were observed by NN. There were inter-model variations to select predictive covariates: whereas all models concurred to define the role of 10 covariates (mainly cardiovascular risk factors), family history, heart rate and minor ECG abnormalities were not contributors by Cox models but were so by forced NN. Forced expiratory volume and arm circumference

  2. Artificial neural networks versus proportional hazards Cox models to predict 45-year all-cause mortality in the Italian Rural Areas of the Seven Countries Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Puddu Paolo

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Projection pursuit regression, multilayer feed-forward networks, multivariate adaptive regression splines and trees (including survival trees have challenged classic multivariable models such as the multiple logistic function, the proportional hazards life table Cox model (Cox, the Poisson’s model, and the Weibull’s life table model to perform multivariable predictions. However, only artificial neural networks (NN have become popular in medical applications. Results We compared several Cox versus NN models in predicting 45-year all-cause mortality (45-ACM by 18 risk factors selected a priori: age; father life status; mother life status; family history of cardiovascular diseases; job-related physical activity; cigarette smoking; body mass index (linear and quadratic terms; arm circumference; mean blood pressure; heart rate; forced expiratory volume; serum cholesterol; corneal arcus; diagnoses of cardiovascular diseases, cancer and diabetes; minor ECG abnormalities at rest. Two Italian rural cohorts of the Seven Countries Study, made up of men aged 40 to 59 years, enrolled and first examined in 1960 in Italy. Cox models were estimated by: a forcing all factors; b a forward-; and c a backward-stepwise procedure. Observed cases of deaths and of survivors were computed in decile classes of estimated risk. Forced and stepwise NN were run and compared by C-statistics (ROC analysis with the Cox models. Out of 1591 men, 1447 died. Model global accuracies were extremely high by all methods (ROCs > 0.810 but there was no clear-cut superiority of any model to predict 45-ACM. The highest ROCs (> 0.838 were observed by NN. There were inter-model variations to select predictive covariates: whereas all models concurred to define the role of 10 covariates (mainly cardiovascular risk factors, family history, heart rate and minor ECG abnormalities were not contributors by Cox models but were so by forced NN. Forced expiratory volume and arm

  3. A precipitation-runoff model for simulating natural streamflow conditions in the Smith River watershed, Montana, water years 1996-2008

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chase, Katherine J.; Caldwell, Rodney R.; Stanley, Andrea K.

    2014-01-01

    This report documents the construction of a precipitation-runoff model for simulating natural streamflow in the Smith River watershed, Montana. This Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model, constructed in cooperation with the Meagher County Conservation District, can be used to examine the general hydrologic framework of the Smith River watershed, including quantification of precipitation, evapotranspiration, and streamflow; partitioning of streamflow between surface runoff and subsurface flow; and quantifying contributions to streamflow from several parts of the watershed. The model was constructed by using spatial datasets describing watershed topography, the streams, and the hydrologic characteristics of the basin soils and vegetation. Time-series data (daily total precipitation, and daily minimum and maximum temperature) were input to the model to simulate daily streamflow. The model was calibrated for water years 2002–2007 and evaluated for water years 1996–2001. Though water year 2008 was included in the study period to evaluate water-budget components, calibration and evaluation data were unavailable for that year. During the calibration and evaluation periods, simulated-natural flow values were compared to reconstructed-natural streamflow data. These reconstructed-natural streamflow data were calculated by adding Bureau of Reclamation’s depletions data to the observed streamflows. Reconstructed-natural streamflows represent estimates of streamflows for water years 1996–2007 assuming there was no agricultural water-resources development in the watershed. Additional calibration targets were basin mean monthly solar radiation and potential evapotranspiration. The model estimated the hydrologic processes in the Smith River watershed during the calibration and evaluation periods. Simulated-natural mean annual and mean monthly flows generally were the same or higher than the reconstructed-natural streamflow values during the calibration period, whereas

  4. Twenty-five years with the biopsychosocial model of low back pain-is it time to celebrate?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pincus, Tamar; Kent, Peter; Bronfort, Gert

    2013-01-01

    An integrated review of current knowledge about the biopsychosocial model of back pain for understanding etiology, prognosis, and interventions, as presented at the plenary sessions of the XII International Forum on LBP Research in Primary Care (Denmark; October 17-19, 2012)....

  5. The Job Demands-Job Control Model and absence behaviour : results of a 3-year longitudinal study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Smulders, P.G.W.; Nijhuis, F.J.N.

    1999-01-01

    Empirical results of earlier studies only marginally supported the relevance of Karasek's Job Demands-Job Control Model for absence behaviour. Since longitudinal studies with respect to these relations were largely lacking, a four-wave panel study was carried out using data from 1755 male employees

  6. Evaluating 4 years of atmospheric ammonia (NH3) over Europe using IASI satellite observations and LOTOS-EUROS model results

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Damme, M. van; Wichink Kruit, R.J.; Schaap, M.; Clarisse, L.; Clerbaux, C.; Coheur, P.F.; Dammers, E.; Dolman, A.J.; Erisman, J.W.

    2014-01-01

    Monitoring ammonia (NH3) concentrations on a global to regional scale is a challenge. Due to the limited availability of reliable ground-based measurements, the determination of NH3 distributions generally relies on model calculations. Novel remotely sensed NH3burdens provide valuable insights to

  7. Multi-scale harmonic model for solar and climate cyclical variation throughout the Holocene based on Jupiter-Saturn tidal frequencies plus the 11-year solar dynamo cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scafetta, Nicola

    2012-05-01

    The Schwabe frequency band of the Zurich sunspot record since 1749 is found to be made of three major cycles with periods of about 9.98, 10.9 and 11.86 years. The side frequencies appear to be closely related to the spring tidal period of Jupiter and Saturn (range between 9.5 and 10.5 years, and median 9.93 years) and to the tidal sidereal period of Jupiter (about 11.86 years). The central cycle may be associated to a quasi-11-year solar dynamo cycle that appears to be approximately synchronized to the average of the two planetary frequencies. A simplified harmonic constituent model based on the above two planetary tidal frequencies and on the exact dates of Jupiter and Saturn planetary tidal phases, plus a theoretically deduced 10.87-year central cycle reveals complex quasi-periodic interference/beat patterns. The major beat periods occur at about 115, 61 and 130 years, plus a quasi-millennial large beat cycle around 983 years. We show that equivalent synchronized cycles are found in cosmogenic records used to reconstruct solar activity and in proxy climate records throughout the Holocene (last 12,000 years) up to now. The quasi-secular beat oscillations hindcast reasonably well the known prolonged periods of low solar activity during the last millennium such as the Oort, Wolf, Spörer, Maunder and Dalton minima, as well as the 17 115-year long oscillations found in a detailed temperature reconstruction of the Northern Hemisphere covering the last 2000 years. The millennial three-frequency beat cycle hindcasts equivalent solar and climate cycles for 12,000 years. Finally, the harmonic model herein proposed reconstructs the prolonged solar minima that occurred during 1900-1920 and 1960-1980 and the secular solar maxima around 1870-1890, 1940-1950 and 1995-2005 and a secular upward trending during the 20th century: this modulated trending agrees well with some solar proxy model, with the ACRIM TSI satellite composite and with the global surface temperature

  8. Validation and Extension of the Prolonged Mechanical Ventilation Prognostic Model (ProVent) Score for Predicting 1-Year Mortality after Prolonged Mechanical Ventilation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Udeh, Chiedozie I; Hadder, Brent; Udeh, Belinda L

    2015-12-01

    Prognostic models can inform management decisions for patients requiring prolonged mechanical ventilation. The Prolonged Mechanical Ventilation Prognostic model (ProVent) score was developed to predict 1-year mortality in these patients. External evaluation of such models is needed before they are adopted for routine use. The goal was to perform an independent external validation of the modified ProVent score and assess for spectrum extension at 14 days of mechanical ventilation. This was a retrospective cohort analysis of patients who received prolonged mechanical ventilation at the University of Iowa Hospitals. Patients who received 14 or more days of mechanical ventilation were identified from a database. Manual review of their medical records was performed to abstract relevant data including the four model variables at Days 14 and 21 of mechanical ventilation. Vital status at 1 year was checked in the medical records or the social security death index. Logistic regressions examined the associations between the different variables and mortality. Model performance at 14 to 20 days and 21+ days was assessed for discrimination by calculating the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, and calibration was assessed using the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test. A total of 180 patients (21+ d) and 218 patients (14-20 d) were included. Overall, 75% were surgical patients. One-year mortality was 51% for 21+ days and 32% for 14 to 20 days of mechanical ventilation. Age greater than 65 years was the strongest predictor of mortality at 1 year in all cohorts. There was no significant difference between predicted and observed mortality rates for patients stratified by ProVent score. There was near-perfect specificity for mortality in the groups with higher ProVent scores. Areas under the curve were 0.69 and 0.75 for the 21+ days and the 14 to 20 days cohorts respectively. P values for the Hosmer-Lemeshow statistics were 0.24 for 21+ days and 0.22 for 14 to

  9. Extracurricular Learning Model In Girls Volleyball (Case Studies In SMP Negeri 1 Bancak Kabupaten Semarang Academic Year 2013/2014)

    OpenAIRE

    SUMARYONO, IG

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to investigate the implementation of extracurricular activities in women's volleyball SMP Negeri 1 Bancak Kabupaten Semarang Academic Year 2013/2014.The research was conducted at SMP Negeri 1 Bancak Kabupaten Semarang using qualitative methods. Source of information in this study was the Principal, teacher or sports coach and student. Data collection techniques used observation, interview and documentation.Based on these results it can be concluded that the prepa...

  10. Transfer of Problem Solving Skills from Touchscreen to 3D Model by 3- to 6-Year-Olds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joanne Tarasuik

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Although much published research purports that young children struggle to solve problems from screen-based media and to transfer learning from a virtual to a physical modality, Huber et al. (2016’s recent study on children solving the Tower of Hanoi (ToH problem on a touchscreen app offers a clear counter example. Huber et al. (2016 reported that children transferred learning from media to the physical world. As this finding arguably differs from that of prior research in this area, the current study tests whether the Huber et al. (2016 results could be replicated. Additionally, we extended the scope of the Huber et al. (2016 work by testing a broader age range, including children as young as 3 years, and using a culturally distinct participant pool. The results of the current study verified Huber et al.’s (2016 conclusion that 4- to 6-year-old children are capable of transferring the ToH learning from touchscreen devices to the physical version of the puzzle. Children under 4 years of age, in contrast, showed little ability to improve at the ToH problem regardless of the practice modality—suggesting that a different problem-solving task is required to probe very young children’s ability to learn from touchscreen apps.

  11. Computer Modeling of Hydrology, Weathering, and Isotopic Fractionation in Andrews Creek, Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado for Water Years 1992 through 2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webb, R. M. T.; Parkhurst, D. L.; Mast, A.; Clow, D. W.

    2014-12-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) Water, Energy, and Biogeochemical Model (WEBMOD) was used to simulate hydrology, weathering, and isotopic fractionation in the 1.7 square kilometer Andrews Creek alpine watershed. WEBMOD includes hydrologic modules derived from the USGS Precipitation Runoff Modeling System, the National Weather Service Hydro-17 snow model, and TOPMODEL. PHREEQC, a geochemical reaction model, is coupled with the hydrologic model to simulate the geochemical evolution of waters as they evaporate, mix, and react within the landscape. Major solute concentrations and δ18O were modeled over the period 1992-2012. Variations of chloride and inorganic nitrogen respond almost entirely to variations in atmospheric deposition and preferential elution of snowpack. Both evaporation and melting result in isotopic enrichment of heavy isotopes in the residual snowpack throughout the summer. Magnesium and potassium, derived mostly from weathering with some atmospheric inputs, vary seasonally with uptake during the growing season and release during the fall and winter. The weathering of granitic minerals—oligoclase, biotite, chlorite, pyrite, calcite, and formation of secondary minerals—kaolinite, goethite, gibbsite, and smectite-illite—were selected as primary reactions based on mole-balance modeling of basin outflows. The rates of these reactions were quantified by calibrating WEBMOD to match observed concentrations and loads. Exported annual loads of most weathering products are highly correlated with discharge, whereas silica loads are less correlated with discharge, suggesting a source that is more active during dry years and less active during wet years. Potential sources include net dissolution of kaolinite and smectite-illite or mineralization of colloids with high silica content. WEBMOD is a valuable tool for simulating water quality variations in response to climate change, acid mine drainage, acid rain, biological transformations, and other

  12. Language, motor and cognitive development of extremely preterm children: modeling individual growth trajectories over the first three years of life.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sansavini, Alessandra; Pentimonti, Jill; Justice, Laura; Guarini, Annalisa; Savini, Silvia; Alessandroni, Rosina; Faldella, Giacomo

    2014-01-01

    Survival rate of extremely low gestational age (ELGA) newborns has increased over 80% in the last 15 years, but its consequences on the short- and longer-term developmental competencies may be severe. The aim of this study was to describe growth trajectories of linguistic, motor and cognitive skills among ELGA children, compared to full-term (FT) peers, from the first to the third year of life, a crucial period for development. Growth curve analysis was used to examine individual and group differences in terms of initial status at 12 months and rate of growth through the second and the third year of life with five points of assessment. Twenty-eight monolingual Italian children, of whom 17 were ELGA (mean GA 25.7 weeks) and 11 were FT children, were assessed through the BSID-III at 12, 18, 24, 30 and 36 months for language skills and at 12, 24 and 30 months for motor and cognitive skills. ELGA children presented significantly lower scores than FT peers in language, motor and cognitive skills and they did not overcome their disadvantage by 3 years, even if their corrected age was taken into account. Concerning growth curves, in motor development a significant increasing divergence was found showing a Matthew effect with the preterm sample falling further behind the FT sample. In linguistic and cognitive development, instead, a stable gap between the two samples was found. In addition, great inter-individual differences in rate of change were observed for language development in both samples. Our findings highlight the theoretical and clinical relevance of analyzing, through growth curve analyses, the developmental trajectories of ELGA children in language skills taking into account their inter-individual variability also across motor and cognitive domains. After reading this article, the reader will interpret: (a) characteristics and growth trajectories of ELGA children from the first to the third year of life with respect to FT children in language, motor and

  13. Analysis of Casualty Risk per Police-Reported Crash for Model Year 2000 to 2004 Vehicles, using Crash Data from Five States

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wenzel, Tom

    2011-03-20

    In this report we compare two measures of driver risks: fatality risk per vehicle registration-year, and casualty (fatality plus serious injury) risk per police-reported crash. Our analysis is based on three sets of data from five states (Florida, Illinois, Maryland, Missouri, and Pennsylvania): data on all police-reported crashes involving model year 2000 to 2004 vehicles; 2005 county-level vehicle registration data by vehicle model year and make/model; and odometer readings from vehicle emission inspection and maintenance (I/M) programs conducted in urban areas of four of the five states (Florida does not have an I/M program). The two measures of risk could differ for three reasons: casualty risks are different from fatality risk; risks per vehicle registration-year are different from risks per crash; and risks estimated from national data are different from risks from the five states analyzed here. We also examined the effect of driver behavior, crash location, and general vehicle design on risk, as well as sources of potential bias in using the crash data from five states.

  14. A validated age-related normative model for male total testosterone shows increasing variance but no decline after age 40 years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelsey, Thomas W; Li, Lucy Q; Mitchell, Rod T; Whelan, Ashley; Anderson, Richard A; Wallace, W Hamish B

    2014-01-01

    The diagnosis of hypogonadism in human males includes identification of low serum testosterone levels, and hence there is an underlying assumption that normal ranges of testosterone for the healthy population are known for all ages. However, to our knowledge, no such reference model exists in the literature, and hence the availability of an applicable biochemical reference range would be helpful for the clinical assessment of hypogonadal men. In this study, using model selection and validation analysis of data identified and extracted from thirteen studies, we derive and validate a normative model of total testosterone across the lifespan in healthy men. We show that total testosterone peaks [mean (2.5-97.5 percentile)] at 15.4 (7.2-31.1) nmol/L at an average age of 19 years, and falls in the average case [mean (2.5-97.5 percentile)] to 13.0 (6.6-25.3) nmol/L by age 40 years, but we find no evidence for a further fall in mean total testosterone with increasing age through to old age. However we do show that there is an increased variation in total testosterone levels with advancing age after age 40 years. This model provides the age related reference ranges needed to support research and clinical decision making in males who have symptoms that may be due to hypogonadism.

  15. Insights into the latent multinomial model through mark-resight data on female grizzly bears with cubs-of-the-year

    Science.gov (United States)

    Higgs, Megan D.; Link, William; White, Gary C.; Haroldson, Mark A.; Bjornlie, Daniel D.

    2013-01-01

    Mark-resight designs for estimation of population abundance are common and attractive to researchers. However, inference from such designs is very limited when faced with sparse data, either from a low number of marked animals, a low probability of detection, or both. In the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, yearly mark-resight data are collected for female grizzly bears with cubs-of-the-year (FCOY), and inference suffers from both limitations. To overcome difficulties due to sparseness, we assume homogeneity in sighting probabilities over 16 years of bi-annual aerial surveys. We model counts of marked and unmarked animals as multinomial random variables, using the capture frequencies of marked animals for inference about the latent multinomial frequencies for unmarked animals. We discuss undesirable behavior of the commonly used discrete uniform prior distribution on the population size parameter and provide OpenBUGS code for fitting such models. The application provides valuable insights into subtleties of implementing Bayesian inference for latent multinomial models. We tie the discussion to our application, though the insights are broadly useful for applications of the latent multinomial model.

  16. Two-year concurrent observation of isoprene at 20 sites over China: comparison with MEGAN-REAM model simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Y.; Yang, W.; Zhang, R.; Zhang, Z.; Lyu, S.; Yu, J.; Wang, Y.; Wang, G.; Wang, X.

    2017-12-01

    Isoprene, the most abundant non-methane hydrocarbon emitted from plants, directly and indirectly affects atmospheric photochemistry and radiative forcing, yet narrowing its emission uncertainties is a continuous challenge. Comparison of observed and modelled isoprene on large spatiotemporal scales would help recognize factors that control isoprene variability, systematic field observation data are however quite lacking. Here we collected ambient air samples with 1 L silonite-treated stainless steel canisters simultaneously at 20 sites over China on every Wednesday at approximately 14:00 pm Beijing time from 2012 to 2014, and analyzed isoprene mixing ratios by preconcentrator-GC-MSD/FID. Observed isoprene mixing ratios were also compared with that simulated by coupling MEGAN 2.0 (Guenther et al., 2006) with a 3-D Regional chEmical trAnsport Model (REAM) (Zhang et al., 2017). Similar seasonal variations between observation and model simulation were obtained for most of sampling sites, but overall the average isoprene mixing ratios during growing months (May to October) was 0.37 ± 0.08 ppbv from model simulation, about 32% lower than that of 0.54 ± 0.20 ppbv based on ground-based observation, and this discrepancy was particularly significant in north China during wintertime. Further investigation demonstrated that emission of biogenic isoprene in northwest China might be underestimated and non-biogenic emission, such burning biomass/biofuel, might contribute to the elevated levels of isoprene during winter time. The observation-based empirical formulas for changing isoprene emission with solar radiation and temperature were also derived for different regions of China.

  17. Reduction of CO2 emission by INCAM model in Malaysia biomass power plants during the year 2016.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amin, Nor Aishah Saidina; Talebian-Kiakalaieh, Amin

    2018-03-01

    As the world's second largest palm oil producer and exporter, Malaysia could capitalize on its oil palm biomass waste for power generation. The emission factors from this renewable energy source are far lower than that of fossil fuels. This study applies an integrated carbon accounting and mitigation (INCAM) model to calculate the amount of CO 2 emissions from two biomass thermal power plants. The CO 2 emissions released from biomass plants utilizing empty fruit bunch (EFB) and palm oil mill effluent (POME), as alternative fuels for powering steam and gas turbines, were determined using the INCAM model. Each section emitting CO 2 in the power plant, known as the carbon accounting center (CAC), was measured for its carbon profile (CP) and carbon index (CI). The carbon performance indicator (CPI) included electricity, fuel and water consumption, solid waste and waste-water generation. The carbon emission index (CEI) and carbon emission profile (CEP), based on the total monthly carbon production, were determined across the CPI. Various innovative strategies resulted in a 20%-90% reduction of CO 2 emissions. The implementation of reduction strategies significantly reduced the CO 2 emission levels. Based on the model, utilization of EFB and POME in the facilities could significantly reduce the CO 2 emissions and increase the potential for waste to energy initiatives. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. The use of multilevel modeling and the level two residual file to explore the relationship between middle years programme student performance and diploma programme student performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gordon, Melissa; Bergeron, Liz

    2015-03-01

    Multilevel modeling has recently found a substantial niche in the context of educational research, although several details about the methodological application of these models have yet to be explored in an achievement data framework. This paper makes use of data provided by the International Baccalaureate (IB) in order to investigate modeling decisions and certain applications of the level two residual file in an effort to increase understanding about the way linear and logistic multilevel models function. The focus of this research is on the relationship between performances in two IB programmes: the Middle Years Programme (MYP) and the Diploma Programme (DP). The impact of predictors on the interpretation of the unconditional and conditional variance-covariance matrix as well as the reliability coefficients is discussed. Empirical findings suggest that students who perform better during MYP moderation tend to perform better on DP exams. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Using Stochastically Downscaled Climate Models and Multiproxy Lake Sediment Data to Connect Climatic Variations Over the Past 1000 Years and the History of Prehistoric Maize Farming in Utah

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomson, M. J.; MacDonald, G. M.

    2015-12-01

    We are investigating the relationship between climatic variations over the past 1000 years and the history of prehistoric maize farming expansion and decline in the American Southwest, with a focus on Utah. We are examining both the downscaled climate models and high resolution analyses of lake cores and dendrochronological data matched with occupation information. We are testing the specific utility of stochastically downscaled general circulation models (viz. ECHO-G) to reconstruct local conditions for sites with documented prehistoric dryland farming through the so-called Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and transition to the Little Ice Age (LIA). We are testing our model-based reconstructions with proxies of temperature and aridity from three subalpine lake sediment cores transecting Utah. We compare the patterns of climate change from the downscaled models and the paleoclimate records to a database of 837 radiocarbon dates over 169 locations of archaeological Native American maize-farmer site occupations in Utah.

  20. Development and External Validation of Prognostic Model for 2-Year Survival of Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer Patients Treated With Chemoradiotherapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dehing-Oberije, Cary; Yu Shipeng; De Ruysscher, Dirk; Meersschout, Sabine; Van Beek, Karen; Lievens, Yolande; Van Meerbeeck, Jan; De Neve, Wilfried; Rao, Bharat Ph.D.; Weide, Hiska van der; Lambin, Philippe

    2009-01-01

    Purpose: Radiotherapy, combined with chemotherapy, is the treatment of choice for a large group of non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients. Recent developments in the treatment of these patients have led to improved survival. However, the clinical TNM stage is highly inaccurate for the prediction of survival, and alternatives are lacking. The objective of this study was to develop and validate a prediction model for survival of NSCLC patients, treated with chemoradiotherapy. Patients and Methods: The clinical data from 377 consecutive inoperable NSCLC patients, Stage I-IIIB, treated radically with chemoradiotherapy were collected. A prognostic model for 2-year survival was developed, using 2-norm support vector machines. The performance of the model was expressed as the area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic and assessed using leave-one-out cross-validation, as well as two external data sets. Results: The final multivariate model consisted of gender, World Health Organization performance status, forced expiratory volume in 1 s, number of positive lymph node stations, and gross tumor volume. The area under the curve, assessed by leave-one-out cross-validation, was 0.74, and application of the model to the external data sets yielded an area under the curve of 0.75 and 0.76. A high- and low-risk group could be clearly identified using a risk score based on the model. Conclusion: The multivariate model performed very well and was able to accurately predict the 2-year survival of NSCLC patients treated with chemoradiotherapy. The model could support clinicians in the treatment decision-making process.

  1. Harmonic model for solar and climate cyclical variation throughout the Holocene based on Jupiter-Saturn tidal frequencies plus the 11-year solar dynamo cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scafetta, N.

    2012-12-01

    We show that the Schwabe frequency band of the Zurich sunspot record since 1749 is made of three major cycles that are closely related to the spring tidal period of Jupiter and Saturn (~9.93 year), to the tidal sidereal period of Jupiter (about 11.86 years) and to a central cycle that may be associated to a quasi-11-year solar dynamo cycle. The central harmonic is approximately synchronized to the average of the two planetary frequencies. A harmonic model based on the above two planetary tidal frequencies and on the exact dates of Jupiter and Saturn planetary tidal phases, plus a theoretically deduced 10.87-year central cycle reveals major beat periods occurring at about 115, 61 and 130 years, plus a quasi-millennial large beat cycle around 983 years. Equivalent synchronized cycles are found in cosmogenic solar proxy records used to reconstruct solar activity and in proxy climate records throughout the Holocene (last 12,000 years) up to now. The quasi-secular beat oscillations hindcast reasonably well the known prolonged periods of low solar activity during the last millennium such as the Oort, Wolf, Sporer, Maunder and Dalton minima, as well as the 17 115-year long oscillations found in a detailed temperature reconstruction of the Northern Hemisphere covering the last 2000 years. The millennial three-frequency beat cycle hindcasts equivalent solar and climate cycles for 12,000 years. Finally, the harmonic model herein proposed reconstructs the prolonged solar minima around 1900-1920 and 1960-1980, the secular solar maxima around 1870-1890, 1940-1950 and 1995-2005, and a secular upward trending during the 20th century. The latter modulated trending agrees well with some solar proxy model, with the ACRIM TSI satellite composite and with the global surface temperature modulation since 1850. The model forecasts a new prolonged solar minimum during 2020-2045, which is produced by the minima of both the 61 and 115-year reconstructed cycles. Finally, the model predicts

  2. An EGS4-ready tomographic computational model of a 14-year-old female torso for calculating organ doses from CT examinations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Caon, M.; School of Physics and Electronic Systems Engineering, University of South Australia, The Levels Campus, Mawson Lakes, South Australia, 5095; Pattison, J.

    1999-01-01

    Fifty-four consecutive CT scans have been used to construct a tomographic computational model of a 14-year-old female torso suitable for the determination of organ doses from CT. The model, known as ADELAIDE, is in the form of an input file compatible with user codes based on XYZDOS.MOR from the readily available EGS4 Monte Carlo radiation transport code. ADELAIDE's dimensions are close to the Australian averages for her age so the model is representative of a 14-year-old girl. The realistic anatomy in the model differs considerably from that in Cristy's 15-year-old mathematical computational model by having realistically shaped organs that are appropriately located within a real external contour. Average absorbed dose to organs from simulated CT examinations of the chest and abdomen have been calculated for ADELAIDE using EGS4 within a geometry specific to the General Electric Hi-Speed Advantage CT scanner and using an x-ray spectrum calculated using data from the scanner's x-ray tube. The simulations include the scanner's beam shaping filter and patient table. It is suggested that the resulting values have fewer possible sources of uncertainty than organ doses derived from dose coefficients calculated for a MIRD style model with mathematical anatomy and a spectrum that may not match that of the scanner. The organ doses were normalized using the scanner's CTDI measured free-in-air and an EGS4 simulation of the CTDI measurement. Effective dose to the torso from 26-slice chest and 24-slice abdomen examinations (at 120 kV, 200 mAs, 7 mm slices) is 4.6±0.1mSv and 4.3±0.1mSv respectively. (author)

  3. Compilation of Data on the Middle Savannah River for the Analysis of Sub-Daily Flow Variation, 2011-2015

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of the Interior — The Nature Conservancy (TNC) has been working with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS), the U.S Army Corps of Engineers – Savannah District (USACE - Savannah)...

  4. Final Programmatic Environmental Assessment for the 2011-2015 Integrated Natural Resources Management Plan for Vandenberg Air Force Base, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-08-16

    Vandenberg AFB; Chumash Tribal Members; and US Penitentiary , Lompoc, employees. A small number of local civilians also fish on the base, using the civilian...3.4.2: Advise and assist with the eradication of the nonnative tiger salamander found in ponds at the Lompoc Federal Penitentiary . x x A.3.4.4...Lompoc Federal Penitentiary to assist with removing invasive species. x x x x K.3.1.1: Expand current eradication methods to include the use of mechanical

  5. Satellite-derived submarine melt rates and mass balance (2011-2015) for Greenland's largest remaining ice tongues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Nat; Straneo, Fiammetta; Heimbach, Patrick

    2017-12-01

    Ice-shelf-like floating extensions at the termini of Greenland glaciers are undergoing rapid changes with potential implications for the stability of upstream glaciers and the ice sheet as a whole. While submarine melting is recognized as a major contributor to mass loss, the spatial distribution of submarine melting and its contribution to the total mass balance of these floating extensions is incompletely known and understood. Here, we use high-resolution WorldView satellite imagery collected between 2011 and 2015 to infer the magnitude and spatial variability of melt rates under Greenland's largest remaining ice tongues - Nioghalvfjerdsbræ (79 North Glacier, 79N), Ryder Glacier (RG), and Petermann Glacier (PG). Submarine melt rates under the ice tongues vary considerably, exceeding 50 m a-1 near the grounding zone and decaying rapidly downstream. Channels, likely originating from upstream subglacial channels, give rise to large melt variations across the ice tongues. We compare the total melt rates to the influx of ice to the ice tongue to assess their contribution to the current mass balance. At Petermann Glacier and Ryder Glacier, we find that the combined submarine and aerial melt approximately balances the ice flux from the grounded ice sheet. At Nioghalvfjerdsbræ the total melt flux (14.2 ± 0.96 km3 a-1 w.e., water equivalent) exceeds the inflow of ice (10.2 ± 0.59 km3 a-1 w.e.), indicating present thinning of the ice tongue.

  6. Progress with the Strategic Action Plan for Tackling Chronic Non-Communicable Diseases in Brazil, 2011-2015.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malta, Deborah Carvalho; Oliveira, Taís Porto; Santos, Maria Aline Siqueira; Andrade, Silvânia Suely Caribé de Araújo; Silva, Marta Maria Alves da

    2016-01-01

    to describe the actions undertaken by the Strategic Action Plan for Tackling Chronic Non-Communicable Diseases (NCDs) in Brazil, from 2011 to 2015. the actions were identified through sectorial and interministerial meetings, annual forums, as well as document reviews of publications and laws on government websites. the actions found were: national surveys and monitoring of mortality and risk factor reduction targets; encouragement of physical activity, adequate nutrition and health promotion through the creation of the Health Gym Program (Programa Academia da Saúde); the publication of legislation on tobacco-free environments; free of charge drugs for hypertension, diabetes, and asthma; organization of the emergency service network for cardiovascular diseases; and expanding access to diagnosis and treatment of cancer patients. we found progress regarding surveillance, health promotion and comprehensive care; in general, the goals of the Plan are being met.

  7. The 2011-2015 physical and monetary balance for electricity: spending of over euro 50 billion in 2015

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guggemos, Fabien; Meilhac, Christophe; Riedinger, Nicolas; Martial, Elodie; Mombel, David; Moreau, Sylvain; Bottin, Anne; Lavail, Jennyfer

    2017-09-01

    Electricity consumers (excluding the electricity sector itself) spent euro 52 billion in 2015 to consume 446 TWh. Taxes accounted for 27% of that expenditure (of which around one-half contributed to financing renewable sources of electricity and to geographical price adjustments), the cost of transmission 27%, and that of supply (including production and sales) 46%. Trade with other countries showed a positive balance of euro 2.3 billion. The residential sector was the main consuming sector, accounting for 35% of physical deliveries. Given the transmission and sales costs, higher on average for households than for businesses, the residential sector accounted for a greater proportion of the spending (48%). Conversely, industry accounted for 24% of physical consumption but only 15% of spending. The share of the services sector was around one-third, in both physical-unit and monetary terms

  8. Malaysia Participation in the IAEA/ WHO TLD Postal Dose Quality Audit Service: Data Analysis From 2011-2015

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Norhayati Abdullah; Taiman Kadni

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, we report the dosimetry methodology used and the results of 22 Malaysian radiotherapy centres participated in the Thermoluminescent Dosimeter (TLD) Postal Dose Quality Audit Service organised by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in collaboration with World Health Organisation (WHO) from 2011 to 2015. In this audit, a set of three capsules of TLD (encapsulated with Lithium Flouride powder) including a control TLD were sent to the participating centres for irradiation with 2 Gy of absorbed dose to water under reference condition. In this period, a total of 70 photon beams consists of 43 beams and 27 beams produced by 6 MV and 10 MV photon beams, respectively have been audited. The results demonstrated that all participating centres comply with the acceptance limits of ±5 % as recommended by the International Commission on Radiation Units and Measurements (ICRU) Report 24, except eight photon beams from six centres. However, these centres presented better compliance results after followed up with a second round of TLD irradiation. (author)

  9. [Patterns and Influential Factors of Inter-Regional Migration of New and Experienced Nurses in 2011~2015].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Bohyun; Kim, Se Young

    2017-10-01

    The purpose of this study was to analyze the migration patterns of new nurses and experienced nurses and to identify the factors influencing inter-regional migration for solving regional imbalances of clinical nurses in South Korea. This study involved a secondary analysis of data from the Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service (HIRA). Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics and multiple logistic regression analysis. New nurses tended to migrate from Kyunggi to Seoul. However, experienced nurses tended to migrate from Seoul and Chungchung to Kyunggi. Significant predictors of inter-regional migration among new nurses were location and nurse staffing grade of hospitals. Significant predictors of inter-regional migration among experienced nurses were location, hospital type, nurse staffing grade, ownership of hospitals and age of nurses. Inter-regional migration occupied a small portion of total hospital movement among clinical nurses. The regional imbalances of nurses were not caused by the migration from non-metropolitan areas to Seoul. Nurse shortage problems in the small and medium hospitals of the non-metropolitan area can be solved only through improvement of work environment. © 2017 Korean Society of Nursing Science

  10. Trends in the use and cost of human and analogue insulins in a Colombian population, 2011-2015.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torres, D R; Portilla, A; Machado-Duque, M E; Machado-Alba, J E

    2017-12-01

    Diabetes mellitus is a common disease among the general population and imposes considerable costs on health care systems. Insulin is used to treat type 1 diabetes mellitus and as an adjuvant to oral agents in advanced stages of type 2 diabetes mellitus. The objective was to describe the trends in use and cost of human and analogue insulins for Colombian patients. Descriptive retrospective analysis of prescriptions of human and analogue insulins on a monthly basis for the period from July 1, 2011 to February 2, 2015. Information was collected for the database population of two insurance companies. Frequencies and proportions were calculated; estimated economic impact was expressed as net cost and cost per thousand inhabitants per day. During the observation period, there was continuous growth in use of insulin, mainly in analogue forms (34.0% growth). At the start of the study, 10.4% of subjects were using an analogue insulin; this figure was 62.6% at the end of the study. In 2012, the average cost per 1000 inhabitants/day was US$1.7 for analogue and US$0.8 for human insulins. At the end of the observation period these costs had risen to US$9.2 for analogue (441.1% increase) and fallen to US$0.5 for human insulin (58.3% decrease). There has been an increase in the unit cost and frequency of use of insulin analogues for anti-diabetic therapy in Colombian patients. Moreover, there is controversy over whether insulin analogues are a more cost-effective treatment than human insulins for the general diabetic population. Copyright © 2017 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Early Diagnosis of HIV Infection in Infants - One Caribbean and Six Sub-Saharan African Countries, 2011-2015.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diallo, Karidia; Kim, Andrea A; Lecher, Shirley; Ellenberger, Dennis; Beard, R Suzanne; Dale, Helen; Hurlston, Mackenzie; Rivadeneira, Molly; Fonjungo, Peter N; Broyles, Laura N; Zhang, Guoqing; Sleeman, Katrina; Nguyen, Shon; Jadczak, Steve; Abiola, Nadine; Ewetola, Raimi; Muwonga, Jérémie; Fwamba, Franck; Mwangi, Christina; Naluguza, Mary; Kiyaga, Charles; Ssewanyana, Isaac; Varough, Deyde; Wysler, Domercant; Lowrance, David; Louis, Frantz Jean; Desinor, Olbeg; Buteau, Josiane; Kesner, Francois; Rouzier, Vanessa; Segaren, Nat; Lewis, Tessa; Sarr, Abdoulaye; Chipungu, Geoffrey; Gupta, Sundeep; Singer, Daniel; Mwenda, Reuben; Kapoteza, Hilary; Chipeta, Zawadi; Knight, Nancy; Carmona, Sergio; MacLeod, William; Sherman, Gayle; Pillay, Yogan; Ndongmo, Clement B; Mugisa, Bridget; Mwila, Annie; McAuley, James; Chipimo, Peter J; Kaonga, Wezi; Nsofwa, Dailess; Nsama, Davy; Mwamba, Fales Zulu; Moyo, Crispin; Phiri, Clement; Borget, Marie-Yolande; Ya-Kouadio, Leonard; Kouame, Abo; Adje-Toure, Christiane A; Nkengasong, John

    2016-11-25

    Pediatric human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection remains an important public health issue in resource-limited settings. In 2015, 1.4 million children aged 50% decline. The most common challenges for access to testing for early infant diagnosis included difficulties in specimen transport, long turnaround time between specimen collection and receipt of results, and limitations in supply chain management. Further reductions in HIV mortality in children can be achieved through continued expansion and improvement of services for early infant diagnosis in PEPFAR-supported countries, including initiatives targeted to reach HIV-exposed infants, ensure access to programs for early infant diagnosis of HIV, and facilitate prompt linkage to treatment for children diagnosed with HIV infection.

  12. ANALYSIS OF THE CONDITIONS AND ACTIVITIES PERFORMED IN DCC XXIV-SOFIA DURING THE 2011-2015 PERIOD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anton Koychev

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The adoption of the Health Insurance Act and the Health Act has resulted in setting up a contract based health insurance system in payment and delivery of medical services in Bulgaria. The health care reform has had a positive effect on outpatient care facilities such as the Diagnostic and Consultation Centers (DCC. The goal of the research is to analyze the activities performed in DCC XXIV-Sofia EOOD, focusing on the human, material and financial resources. Performance indicators, profitability and financial independence ratios have been calculated in order to prepare a financial and economic analysis of the activities. A thorough analysis of each resource flow would enable the management of DCC XXIV-Sofia EOOD to find ways of attracting funds through cash flow efficient management and entering into appropriate contracts in compliance with Bulgarian legislation.

  13. CARVE: L1 In-situ Carbon and CH4 Flux and Meteorology at EC Towers, Alaska, 2011-2015

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This data set provides ground in situ flux and meteorological science data from fixed instruments at three eddy covariance tower sites located in the Alaskan Arctic...

  14. DETERMINANTS GROWTH OF TOTAL ASSETS BY BANK SPECIFIC VARIABLE AND MARKET SHARE IN ISLAMIC BANKING IN INDONESIA, PERIOD 2011 - 2015

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    IRMA SETYAWATI

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available This research was conducted at Islamic banking in Indonesia, from January 2011 to December 2015 with a month-use data. This study used the design verification to see bank-specific variables and market share effects on the growth of the total assets of Islamic banking in Indonesia. The results showed that the variables of specific banks and the market share represented by finance deposit ratio, capital adequacy ratio, the ratio of operating expenses to total assets, the ratio of income of non-financing with total assets, non-performing financing and market share jointly significant effect on growth the value of assets of Islamic banking in Indonesia.

  15. DETERMINANTS GROWTH OF TOTAL ASSETS BY BANK SPECIFIC VARIABLE AND MARKET SHARE IN ISLAMIC BANKING IN INDONESIA, PERIOD 2011 - 2015

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    IRMA SETYAWATI

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available This research was conducted at Islamic banking in Indonesia, from January 2011 to December 2015 with a month-use data. This study used the design verification to see bank-specific variables and market share effects on the growth of the total assets of Islamic banking in Indonesia. The results showed that the variables of specific banks and the market share represented by finance deposit ratio, capital adequacy ratio, the ratio of operating expenses to total assets, the ratio of income of non-financing with total assets, non-performing financing and market share jointly significant effect on growth the value of assets of Islamic banking in Indonesia.

  16. CARVE: L2 Atmospheric CO2, CO, and CH4 Concentrations, CARVE Tower, Alaska, 2011-2015

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This data set provides atmospheric methane (CH4), carbon dioxide (CO2), and carbon monoxide (CO) dry air mole fractions and water vapor mole fractions (H2O) from...

  17. Simulated root dynamics of a 160-year-old sugar maple (Acer saccharum Marsh.) tree with and without ozone exposure using the TREGRO model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Retzlaff, W. A.; Weinstein, D. A.; Laurence, J. A.; Gollands, B.

    1996-01-01

    Because of difficulties in directly assessing root responses of mature forest trees exposed to atmospheric pollutants, we have used the model TREGRO to analyze the effects of a 3- and a 10-year exposure to ozone (O(3)) on root dynamics of a simulated 160-year-old sugar maple (Acer saccharum Marsh.) tree. We used existing phenological, allometric, and growth data to parameterize TREGRO to produce a simulated 160-year-old tree. Simulations were based on literature values for sugar maple fine root production and senescence and the photosynthetic responses of sugar maple seedlings exposed to O(3) in open-top chambers. In the simulated 3-year exposure to O(3), 2 x ambient atmospheric O(3) concentrations reduced net carbon (C) gain of the 160-year-old tree. This reduction occurred in the C storage pools (total nonstructural carbohydrate, TNC), with most of the reduction occurring in coarse (woody) roots. Total fine root production and senescence were unaffected by the simulated 3-year exposure to O(3). However, extending the simulated O(3) exposure period to 10 years depleted the TNC pools of the coarse roots and reduced total fine root production. Similar reductions in TNC pools have been observed in forest-grown sugar maple trees exhibiting symptoms of stress. We conclude that modeling can aid in evaluating the belowground response of mature forest trees to atmospheric pollution stress and could indicate the potential for gradual deterioration of tree health under conditions of long-term stress, a situation similar to that underlying the decline of sugar maple trees.

  18. [Epidemiology of homicides in Cali, Colombia, 1993-1998: six years of a population-based model].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Concha-Eastman, Alberto; Espitia, Victoria E; Espinosa, Rafael; Guerrero, Rodrigo

    2002-10-01

    To demonstrate the usefulness of an effective and timely information model, underscore the seriousness of the problem of homicides, and point out the need to apply this type of model as well as comprehensive prevention projects, such as Desarrollo, Seguridad y Paz (DESESPAZ). From 1993 to 1998, 11 457 homicides were registered in Cali, Colombia, through an epidemiological surveillance model established under DESESPAZ by the mayor's office in Cali. Beginning in January 1993, a work group organized by DESESPAZ reviewed and standardized the variables that different institutions gathered about the victims, their assailants, and the facts surrounding each case, and issued a weekly summary bulletin for the mayor and other local authorities. Between 1983 and 1994, the homicide rate increased from 23 to 124 per 100 000 inhabitants. Subsequently, rates went down in 1995, 1996, and 1997 to 112, 102, and 86,1 per 100 000, respectively, and again rose slightly in 1998 to 88 per 100 000. Even though people of all ages, including children under 5, have been victims of violence, the most affected group is that of men between the ages of 20 and 34. The ratio of men to women has varied from 14.3:1 to 9.2:1. In terms of numbers, percentages, and rates, low-income groups are the most seriously affected, although the highest-income groups have had rates as high as 160 per 100 000. A firearm was used in over 80% of homicides, and the crime was most often committed at night and on a weekend. A suspect was identified in only a few cases (8% to 21%). The bivariate analysis revealed a positive association with alcohol consumption by the victim, as well as with the use of firearms by the assailant (OR: 3.1; 95% CI: 2.6 to 3.6). Cases that occurred during a fight between individuals or during group fighting showed an association with the use of a sharp weapon and with alcohol consumption by the victim (OR: 1.9; 95% CI: 1.4 to 2.6). A map shows the homicide distribution by neighborhood, and

  19. Poverty as a Predictor of 4-Year-Olds’ Executive Function: New Perspectives on Models of Differential Susceptibility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raver, C. Cybele; Blair, Clancy; Willoughby, Michael

    2017-01-01

    In a predominantly low-income, population-based longitudinal sample of 1,259 children followed from birth, results suggest that chronic exposure to poverty and the strains of financial hardship were each uniquely predictive of young children’s performance on measures of executive functioning. Results suggest that temperament-based vulnerability serves as a statistical moderator of the link between poverty-related risk and children’s executive functioning. Implications for models of ecology and biology in shaping the development of children’s self-regulation are discussed. PMID:22563675

  20. Year rather than farming system influences protein utilization and energy value of vegetables when measured in a rat model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jørgensen, Henry; Brandt, Kirsten; Lauridsen, Charlotte

    2008-12-01

    The aim of the study was to measure protein utilization and energy value of dried apple, carrot, kale, pea, and potato prepared for human consumption and grown in 2 consecutive years with 3 different farming systems: (1) low input of fertilizer without pesticides (LIminusP), (2) low input of fertilizers and high input of pesticides (LIplusP), (3) and high input of fertilizers and high input of pesticides (HIplusP). In addition, the study goal was to verify the nutritional values, taking into consideration the physiologic state. In experiment 1, the nutritive values, including protein digestibility-corrected amino acid score, were determined in single ingredients in trials with young rats (3-4 weeks) as recommended by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations/World Health Organization for all age groups. A second experiment was carried out with adult rats to assess the usefulness of digestibility values to predict the digestibility and nutritive value of mixed diets and study the age aspect. Each plant material was included in the diet with protein-free basal mixtures or casein to contain 10% dietary protein. The results showed that variations in protein utilization and energy value determined on single ingredients between cultivation strategies were inconsistent and smaller than between harvest years. Overall, dietary crude fiber was negatively correlated with energy digestibility. The energy value of apple, kale, and pea was lower than expected from literature values. A mixture of plant ingredients fed to adult rats showed lower protein digestibility and higher energy digestibility than predicted. The protein digestibility data obtained using young rats in the calculation of protein digestibility-corrected amino acid score overestimates protein digestibility and quality and underestimates energy value for mature rats. The present study provides new data on protein utilization and energy digestibility of some typical plant foods that may

  1. Linking growth to environmental histories in central Baltic young-of-the-year sprat, Sprattus sprattus : an approach based on otolith microstructure analysis and hydrodynamic modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baumann, H.; Hinrichsen, H.H.; Voss, R.

    2006-01-01

    Otolith microstructure analysis and hydrodynamic modelling were combined to study growth patterns in young-of-the-year (YoY) sprat, Sprattus sprattus, which were sampled in October 2002 in the central Baltic Sea. The observed 'window of survival', approximated by the distribution of back-calculat......Otolith microstructure analysis and hydrodynamic modelling were combined to study growth patterns in young-of-the-year (YoY) sprat, Sprattus sprattus, which were sampled in October 2002 in the central Baltic Sea. The observed 'window of survival', approximated by the distribution of back......-calculated days of first feeding (DFF), was narrow compared to the extended spawning season of sprat in the Baltic Sea (mean +/- SD = 22 June +/- 14.1 days) and indicated that only individuals born in summer survived until October 2002. Within the group of survivors, individuals born later in the season exhibited...

  2. Why did modern human populations disperse from Africa ca. 60,000 years ago? A new model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mellars, Paul

    2006-06-20

    Recent research has provided increasing support for the origins of anatomically and genetically "modern" human populations in Africa between 150,000 and 200,000 years ago, followed by a major dispersal of these populations to both Asia and Europe sometime after ca. 65,000 before present (B.P.). However, the central question of why it took these populations approximately 100,000 years to disperse from Africa to other regions of the world has never been clearly resolved. It is suggested here that the answer may lie partly in the results of recent DNA studies of present-day African populations, combined with a spate of new archaeological discoveries in Africa. Studies of both the mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) mismatch patterns in modern African populations and related mtDNA lineage-analysis patterns point to a major demographic expansion centered broadly within the time range from 80,000 to 60,000 B.P., probably deriving from a small geographical region of Africa. Recent archaeological discoveries in southern and eastern Africa suggest that, at approximately the same time, there was a major increase in the complexity of the technological, economic, social, and cognitive behavior of certain African groups, which could have led to a major demographic expansion of these groups in competition with other, adjacent groups. It is suggested that this complex of behavioral changes (possibly triggered by the rapid environmental changes around the transition from oxygen isotope stage 5 to stage 4) could have led not only to the expansion of the L2 and L3 mitochondrial lineages over the whole of Africa but also to the ensuing dispersal of these modern populations over most regions of Asia, Australasia, and Europe, and their replacement (with or without interbreeding) of the preceding "archaic" populations in these regions.

  3. Analysis of impulse oscillometric measures of lung function and respiratory system model parameters in small airway-impaired and healthy children over a 2-year period

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nava Pat

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Is Impulse Oscillometry System (IOS a valuable tool to measure respiratory system function in Children? Asthma (A is the most prevalent chronic respiratory disease in children. Therefore, early and accurate assessment of respiratory function is of tremendous clinical interest in diagnosis, monitoring and treatment of respiratory conditions in this subpopulation. IOS has been successfully used to measure lung function in children with a high degree of sensitivity and specificity to small airway impairments (SAI and asthma. IOS measures of airway function and equivalent electrical circuit models of the human respiratory system have been developed to quantify the severity of these conditions. Previously, we have evaluated several known respiratory models based on the Mead's model and more parsimonious versions based on fitting IOS data known as extended RIC (eRIC and augmented RIC (aRIC models have emerged, which offer advantages over earlier models. Methods IOS data from twenty-six children were collected and compared during pre-bronchodilation (pre-B and post- bronchodilation (post-B conditions over a period of 2 years. Results and Discussion Are the IOS and model parameters capable of differentiating between healthy children and children with respiratory system distress? Children were classified into two main categories: Healthy (H and Small Airway-Impaired (SAI. The IOS measures and respiratory model parameters analyzed differed consistently between H and SAI children. SAI children showed smaller trend of "growth" and larger trend of bronchodilator responses than H children. The two model parameters: peripheral compliance (Cp and peripheral resistance (Rp tracked IOS indices of small airway function well. Cp was a more sensitive index than Rp. Both eRIC and aRIC Cps and the IOS Reactance Area, AX, (also known as the "Goldman Triangle" showed good correlations. Conclusions What are the most useful IOS and model parameters? In

  4. predictive power of Health Promotion Model constructs in relation to oral health behaviors among students in Elementary school students year 2016-17

    OpenAIRE

    Mitra Moodi; Gholamreza Sharifzadeh; Sedigheh Ramazani; Leili Jalilian

    2018-01-01

    Background and Aim: Recognition of factors affecting oral health behaviors in students is a key step in promoting oral health. This study explored the predictive power of constructs in Pender’s Health Promotion Model vis-à-vis oral health behaviors among elementary students in 2016-2017 school year in Nehbandan. Materials and Methods: This cross-sectional study recruited 464 fifth- and sixth-grade Nehbandan-based elementary students who were selected through randomized cluster...

  5. A synthesis of ten years' tests on scale models of LMFBR steam generators at the CGVS facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fontaine, J.P.; Quinet, J.L.

    1982-01-01

    Electricite de France has built a high power sodium heated steam generator (SG) facility (CGVS), capable of reproducing all possible operating conditions, to study the behaviour of scale-models of industrial apparatuses. The main findings of the experiments were as follows: - heat exchange surfaces remained perfectly leak proof; - hydrogen detection in the sodium and argon constitute additional systems for monitoring the impermeability to leaks of a SG with a free sodium surface; - extrapolation of the findings to the SUPER PHENIX SG shows that water leaking at a rate of 100 mg/s would induce in ten minutes a 50% rise of the signal produced by the hydrogen monitoring device in the sodium; - acoustic method can detect leaks of the order of one g/s in a 45 MW SG sited in an industrial environment

  6. Integrated Landsat Image Analysis and Hydrologic Modeling to Detect Impacts of 25-Year Land-Cover Change on Surface Runoff in a Philippine Watershed

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Enrico Paringit

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Landsat MSS and ETM+ images were analyzed to detect 25-year land-cover change (1976–2001 in the critical Taguibo Watershed in Mindanao Island, Southern Philippines. This watershed has experienced historical modifications of its land-cover due to the presence of logging industries in the 1950s, and continuous deforestation due to illegal logging and slash-and-burn agriculture in the present time. To estimate the impacts of land-cover change on watershed runoff, land-cover information derived from the Landsat images was utilized to parameterize a GIS-based hydrologic model. The model was then calibrated with field-measured discharge data and used to simulate the responses of the watershed in its year 2001 and year 1976 land-cover conditions. The availability of land-cover information on the most recent state of the watershed from the Landsat ETM+ image made it possible to locate areas for rehabilitation such as barren and logged-over areas. We then created a “rehabilitated” land-cover condition map of the watershed (re-forestation of logged-over areas and agro-forestation of barren areas and used it to parameterize the model and predict the runoff responses of the watershed. Model results showed that changes in land-cover from 1976 to 2001 were directly related to the significant increase in surface runoff. Runoff predictions showed that a full rehabilitation of the watershed, especially in barren and logged-over areas, will be likely to reduce the generation of a huge volume of runoff during rainfall events. The results of this study have demonstrated the usefulness of multi-temporal Landsat images in detecting land-cover change, in identifying areas for rehabilitation, and in evaluating rehabilitation strategies for management of tropical watersheds through its use in hydrologic modeling.

  7. Nitrogen dioxide levels estimated from land use regression models several years apart and association with mortality in a large cohort study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cesaroni Giulia

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Land Use Regression models (LUR are useful to estimate the spatial variability of air pollution in urban areas. Few studies have evaluated the stability of spatial contrasts in outdoor nitrogen dioxide (NO2 concentration over several years. We aimed to compare measured and estimated NO2 levels 12 years apart, the stability of the exposure estimates for members of a large cohort study, and the association of the exposure estimates with natural mortality within the cohort. Methods We measured NO2 at 67 locations in Rome in 1995/96 and 78 sites in 2007, over three one-week-long periods. To develop LUR models, several land-use and traffic variables were used. NO2 concentration at each residential address was estimated for a cohort of 684,000 adults. We used Cox regression to analyze the association between the two estimated exposures and mortality. Results The mean NO2 measured concentrations were 45.4 μg/m3 (SD 6.9 in 1995/96 and 44.6 μg/m3 (SD 11.0 in 2007, respectively. The correlation of the two measurements was 0.79. The LUR models resulted in adjusted R2 of 0.737 and 0.704, respectively. The correlation of the predicted exposure values for cohort members was 0.96. The association of each 10 μg/m3 increase in NO2 with mortality was 6 % for 1995/96 and 4 % for 2007 LUR models. The increased risk per an inter-quartile range change was identical (4 %, 95 % CI:3–6 % for both estimates of NO2. Conclusions Measured and predicted NO2 values from LUR models, from samples collected 12 years apart, had good agreement, and the exposure estimates were similarly associated with mortality in a large cohort study.

  8. Mental Health Changes and Its Predictors in Adolescents using the Path Analytic Model: A 7-Year Observational Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Reza Soltanian

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available This 7-year observational study examines the hours of TV-watching, phone conversation with friends, using the internet, and physical activity as predictors of mental health among adolescents in south of Iran.At the baseline (in 2005, the participants were 2584 high school students in the 9th to 11th grade. At the baseline, 30% of the available participants (n = 775 were selected in the follow-up (2012 using convenience sampling method. This study used the path analysis to examine the predictors of mental health and to obtain direct, indirect and total effects of the independent variables.At the baseline (2005, female gender, internet use, maternal education, physical activity and father's education were associated with mental health (p<0.05. Baseline mental health, internet use and physical activity predicted mental health of the participants in the follow up (p<0.05.The findings of the study revealed that better mental health in later life is associated with better mental health at baseline, male gender, higher physical activity and phone communication with friends, and less use of the internet and TV.

  9. A Multi-Year Aerosol Characterization for the Greater Tehran Area Using Satellite, Surface, and Modeling Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ewan Crosbie

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available This study reports a multi-year (2000–2009 aerosol characterization for metropolitan Tehran and surrounding areas using multiple datasets (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS, Multi-angle Imaging Spectroradiometer (MISR, Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS, Goddard Ozone Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART, and surface and upper air data from local stations. Monthly trends in aerosol characteristics are examined in the context of the local meteorology, regional and local emission sources, and air mass back-trajectory data. Dust strongly affects the region during the late spring and summer months (May–August when aerosol optical depth (AOD is at its peak and precipitation accumulation is at a minimum. In addition, the peak AOD that occurs in July is further enhanced by a substantial number of seasonal wildfires in upwind regions. Conversely, AOD is at a minimum during winter; however, reduced mixing heights and a stagnant lower atmosphere trap local aerosol emissions near the surface and lead to significant reductions in visibility within Tehran. The unique meteorology and topographic setting makes wintertime visibility and surface aerosol concentrations particularly sensitive to local anthropogenic sources and is evident in the noteworthy improvement in visibility observed on weekends. Scavenging of aerosol due to precipitation is evident during the winter when a consistent increase in surface visibility and concurrent decrease in AOD is observed in the days after rain compared with the days immediately before rain.

  10. Disease Management Project Breast Cancer in Hesse - 5-Year Survival Data: Successful Model of Intersectoral Communication for Quality Assurance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackisch, C; Funk, A; König, K; Lubbe, D; Misselwitz, B; Wagner, U

    2014-03-01

    Introduction: The Disease Management Project Breast Cancer (DMP Breast Cancer) was first launched in Hesse in 2004. The project is supported by the health insurance companies in Hesse and the Professional Association of Gynaecologists in Hesse. The aim is to offer structured treatment programmes to all women diagnosed with breast cancer in Hesse by creating intersectoral cooperations between coordinating clinics, associated hospitals and gynaecologists in private practice who registered in the DMP programme. Method: Between 1 January 2005 and 30 June 2011, 13 973 women were enrolled in the DMP programme. Results: After data cleansing, survival rates were calculated for a total of 11 214 women. The 5-year overall survival (OS) rate was 86.3 %; survival rates according to tumour stage on presentation were 92.2 % (pT1) and 82.3 % (pT2), respectively. The impact of steroid hormone receptor status on survival (87.8 % for receptor-positive cancers vs. 78.9 % for receptor-negative cancers) and of age at first diagnosis on survival (≤ 35 years = 91 %) were calculated. Conclusion: The project showed that intersectoral cooperation led to significant improvements in the quality of treatment over time, as measured by quality indicators and outcomes after treatment.

  11. Reconstructing and analyzing China's fifty-nine year (1951–2009 drought history using hydrological model simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. Y. Wu

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available The 1951–2009 drought history of China is reconstructed using daily soil moisture values generated by the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC land surface macroscale hydrology model. VIC is applied over a grid of 10 458 points with a spatial resolution of 30 km × 30 km, and is driven by observed daily maximum and minimum air temperature and precipitation from 624 long-term meteorological stations. The VIC soil moisture is used to calculate the Soil Moisture Anomaly Percentage Index (SMAPI, which can be used as a measure of the severity of agricultural drought on a global basis. We have developed a SMAPI-based drought identification procedure for practical uses in the identification of both grid point and regional drought events. As a result, a total of 325 regional drought events varying in time and strength are identified from China's nine drought study regions. These drought events can thus be assessed quantitatively at different spatial and temporal scales. The result shows that the severe drought events of 1978, 2000 and 2006 are well reconstructed, which indicates that the SMAPI is capable of identifying the onset of a drought event, its progression, as well as its termination. Spatial and temporal variations of droughts in China's nine drought study regions are studied. Our result shows that on average, up to 30% of the total area of China is prone to drought. Regionally, an upward trend in drought-affected areas has been detected in three regions (Inner Mongolia, Northeast and North from 1951–2009. However, the decadal variability of droughts has been weak in the rest of the five regions (South, Southwest, East, Northwest, and Tibet. Xinjiang has even been showing steadily wetter since the 1950s. Two regional dry centres are discovered in China as the result of a combined analysis on the occurrence of drought events from both grid points and drought study regions. The first centre is located in the area partially covered by the North

  12. General and specific attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder factors of children 4 to 6 years of age: An exploratory structural equation modeling approach to assessing symptom multidimensionality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arias, Víctor B; Ponce, Fernando P; Martínez-Molina, Agustín; Arias, Benito; Núñez, Daniel

    2016-01-01

    We tested first-order factor and bifactor models of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) using confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) and exploratory structural equation modeling (ESEM) to adequately summarize the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, 4th Edition, (DSM-IV-TR) symptoms observed in a Spanish sample of preschoolers and kindergarteners. Six ESEM and CFA models were estimated based on teacher evaluations of the behavior of 638 children 4 to 6 years of age. An ESEM bifactor model with a central dimension plus 3 specific factors (inattention, hyperactivity, and impulsivity) showed the best fit and interpretability. Strict invariance between the sexes was observed. The bifactor model provided a solution to previously encountered inconsistencies in the factorial models of ADHD in young children. However, the low reliability of the specific factors casts doubt on the utility of the subscales for ADHD measurement. More research is necessary to clarify the nature of G and S factors of ADHD. (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved.

  13. Behavioral health screening and intervention for women in Argentina: a preliminary model for the childbearing years

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suarez Ordoñez RM

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Rocio M Suarez Ordoñez,1 Jorgelina Cesolari,2 Casas Ofelia,2 Ivonne Villavicencio,1 Hendrée E Jones31Research Department, Institute of Cognitive Neuroscience INECO Oroño, 2Neonatology Department, Martin Maternity, Rosario, Santa Fe, Argentina; 3UNC Horizons and Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, School of Medicine, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, USAAbstract: Untreated behavioral disorders in pregnant women and in women of childbearing age pose physical and psychological safety concerns and are barriers to the well-being of both mother and neonate. The present paper underlines the importance of screening in Argentina for behavioral problems in women of childbearing age, particularly pregnant women and their newborns. Emphasized is the need to formalize this comprehensive screening in a protocol that includes domains of mental disorders, behavioral disorders, education, social environment, employment, desire for maternity, substance use including non-prescription use of prescription medications, eating disorders, suicide risk, interpersonal violence, stress, and trauma. Implementation of such a model would require agreement and cooperation between the public and private health sectors as well as in the development of research for validation of the various screening and interventions tools that would be adopted for general use. Keywords: pregnancy, substance use, assessment, measures

  14. Modeling the recurrent failure to thrive in less than two-year children: recurrent events survival analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saki Malehi, Amal; Hajizadeh, Ebrahim; Ahmadi, Kambiz; Kholdi, Nahid

    2014-01-01

    This study aimes to evaluate the failure to thrive (FTT) recurrent event over time. This longitudinal study was conducted during February 2007 to July 2009. The primary outcome was growth failure. The analysis was done using 1283 children who had experienced FTT several times, based on recurrent events analysis. Fifty-nine percent of the children had experienced the FTT at least one time and 5.3% of them had experienced it up to four times. The Prentice-Williams-Peterson (PWP) model revealed significant relationship between diarrhea (HR=1.26), respiratory infections (HR=1.25), urinary tract infections (HR=1.51), discontinuation of breast-feeding (HR=1.96), teething (HR=1.18), initiation age of complementary feeding (HR=1.11) and hazard rate of the first FTT event. Recurrence nature of the FTT is a main problem, which taking it into account increases the accuracy in analysis of FTT event process and can lead to identify different risk factors for each FTT recurrences.

  15. Depression in Men and Women One Year Following Traumatic Brain Injury (TBI: A TBI Model Systems Study

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    Sarah Lavoie

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available In the general population, females experience depression at significantly higher rates than males. Individuals with traumatic brain injury (TBI are at substantially greater risk for depression compared to the overall population. Treatment of, and recovery from, TBI can be hindered by depression; comorbid TBI and depression can lead to adverse outcomes and negatively affect multiple aspects of individuals’ lives. Gender differences in depression following TBI are not well understood, and relevant empirical findings have been mixed. Utilizing the Patient Health Questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9 1 year after TBI, we examined whether women would experience more severe depressive symptoms, and would endorse higher levels of depression within each category of depression severity, than would men. Interestingly, and contrary to our hypothesis, men and women reported mild depression at equal rates; PHQ-9 total scores were slightly lower in women than in men. Men and women did not differ significantly in any PHQ-9 depression severity category. Item analyses, yielded significant gender differences on the following items: greater concentration difficulties (cognitive problems in men and more sleep disturbances (psychosomatic issues in women per uncorrected two-sample Z-test for proportions analyses; however, these results were not significant after the family-wise Bonferroni correction. Our results indicate that, in contrast to the general population, mild depression in persons with moderate to severe TBI may not be gender-specific. These findings underscore the need for early identification, active screening, and depression treatment equally for men and women to improve emotional well-being, promote recovery, and enhance quality of life following TBI.

  16. Five-Year-Olds’ Systematic Errors in Second-Order False Belief Tasks Are Due to First-Order Theory of Mind Strategy Selection: A Computational Modeling Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arslan, Burcu; Taatgen, Niels A.; Verbrugge, Rineke

    2017-01-01

    The focus of studies on second-order false belief reasoning generally was on investigating the roles of executive functions and language with correlational studies. Different from those studies, we focus on the question how 5-year-olds select and revise reasoning strategies in second-order false belief tasks by constructing two computational cognitive models of this process: an instance-based learning model and a reinforcement learning model. Unlike the reinforcement learning model, the instance-based learning model predicted that children who fail second-order false belief tasks would give answers based on first-order theory of mind (ToM) reasoning as opposed to zero-order reasoning. This prediction was confirmed with an empirical study that we conducted with 72 5- to 6-year-old children. The results showed that 17% of the answers were correct and 83% of the answers were wrong. In line with our prediction, 65% of the wrong answers were based on a first-order ToM strategy, while only 29% of them were based on a zero-order strategy (the remaining 6% of subjects did not provide any answer). Based on our instance-based learning model, we propose that when children get feedback “Wrong,” they explicitly revise their strategy to a higher level instead of implicitly selecting one of the available ToM strategies. Moreover, we predict that children’s failures are due to lack of experience and that with exposure to second-order false belief reasoning, children can revise their wrong first-order reasoning strategy to a correct second-order reasoning strategy. PMID:28293206

  17. Five-Year-Olds' Systematic Errors in Second-Order False Belief Tasks Are Due to First-Order Theory of Mind Strategy Selection: A Computational Modeling Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arslan, Burcu; Taatgen, Niels A; Verbrugge, Rineke

    2017-01-01

    The focus of studies on second-order false belief reasoning generally was on investigating the roles of executive functions and language with correlational studies. Different from those studies, we focus on the question how 5-year-olds select and revise reasoning strategies in second-order false belief tasks by constructing two computational cognitive models of this process: an instance-based learning model and a reinforcement learning model. Unlike the reinforcement learning model, the instance-based learning model predicted that children who fail second-order false belief tasks would give answers based on first-order theory of mind (ToM) reasoning as opposed to zero-order reasoning. This prediction was confirmed with an empirical study that we conducted with 72 5- to 6-year-old children. The results showed that 17% of the answers were correct and 83% of the answers were wrong. In line with our prediction, 65% of the wrong answers were based on a first-order ToM strategy, while only 29% of them were based on a zero-order strategy (the remaining 6% of subjects did not provide any answer). Based on our instance-based learning model, we propose that when children get feedback "Wrong," they explicitly revise their strategy to a higher level instead of implicitly selecting one of the available ToM strategies. Moreover, we predict that children's failures are due to lack of experience and that with exposure to second-order false belief reasoning, children can revise their wrong first-order reasoning strategy to a correct second-order reasoning strategy.

  18. Disability transitions and health expectancies among adults 45 years and older in Malawi: a cohort-based model.

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    Collin F Payne

    Full Text Available Falling fertility and increasing life expectancy contribute to a growing elderly population in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA; by 2060, persons aged 45 y and older are projected to be 25% of SSA's population, up from 10% in 2010. Aging in SSA is associated with unique challenges because of poverty and inadequate social supports. However, despite its importance for understanding the consequences of population aging, the evidence about the prevalence of disabilities and functional limitations due to poor physical health among older adults in SSA continues to be very limited.Participants came from 2006, 2008, and 2010 waves of the Malawi Longitudinal Survey of Families and Health, a study of the rural population in Malawi. We investigate how poor physical health results in functional limitations that limit the day-to-day activities of individuals in domains relevant to this subsistence-agriculture context. These disabilities were parameterized based on questions from the SF-12 questionnaire about limitations in daily living activities. We estimated age-specific patterns of functional limitations and the transitions over time between different disability states using a discrete-time hazard model. The estimated transition rates were then used to calculate the first (to our knowledge microdata-based health expectancies calculated for SSA. The risks of experiencing functional limitations due to poor physical health are high in this population, and the onset of disabilities happens early in life. Our analyses show that 45-y-old women can expect to spend 58% (95% CI, 55%-64% of their remaining 28 y of life (95% CI, 25.7-33.5 with functional limitations; 45-y-old men can expect to live 41% (95% CI, 35%-46% of their remaining 25.4 y (95% CI, 23.3-28.8 with such limitations. Disabilities related to functional limitations are shown to have a substantial negative effect on individuals' labor activities, and are negatively related to subjective well

  19. One-Year Outcomes of Total Meniscus Reconstruction Using a Novel Fiber-Reinforced Scaffold in an Ovine Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patel, Jay M; Merriam, Aaron R; Culp, Brian M; Gatt, Charles J; Dunn, Michael G

    2016-04-01

    Meniscus injuries and resulting meniscectomies lead to joint deterioration, causing pain, discomfort, and instability. Tissue-engineered devices to replace the meniscus have not shown consistent success with regard to function, mechanical integrity, or protection of cartilage. To evaluate a novel resorbable polymer fiber-reinforced meniscus reconstruction scaffold in an ovine model for 52 weeks and assess its integrity, tensile and compressive mechanics, cell phenotypes, matrix organization and content, and protection of the articular cartilage surfaces. Controlled laboratory study. Eight skeletally mature ewes were implanted with the fiber-reinforced scaffold after total meniscectomy, and 2 additional animals had untreated total meniscectomies. Animals were sacrificed at 52 weeks, and the explants and articular surfaces were analyzed macroscopically. Explants were characterized by ultimate tensile testing, confined compression creep testing, and biochemical, histological, and immunohistochemical analyses. Cartilage damage was characterized using the Mankin score on histologic slides from both the femur and tibia. One sheep was removed from the study because of a torn extensor tendon; the remaining 7 explants remained fully intact and incorporated into the bone tunnels. All explants exhibited functional tensile loads, tensile stiffnesses, and compressive moduli. Fibrocartilagenous repair with both types 1 and 2 collagen were observed, with areas of matrix organization and biochemical content similar to native tissue. Narrowing in the body region was observed in 5 of 7 explants. Mankin scores showed less cartilage damage in the explant group (femoral condyle: 3.43 ± 0.79, tibial plateau: 3.50 ± 1.63) than in the meniscectomy group (femoral condyle: 8.50 ± 3.54, tibial plateau: 6.75 ± 2.47) and were comparable with Mankin scores at the previously reported 16- and 32-week time points. A resorbable fiber-reinforced meniscus scaffold supports formation of functional

  20. Mechanosensing in myosin filament solves a 60 years old conflict in skeletal muscle modeling between high power output and slow rise in tension

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    Lorenzo Marcucci

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Almost 60 years ago Andrew Huxley with his seminal paper [Huxley1957] laid the foundation of modern muscle modeling, linking chemical events to mechanical performance. He described mechanics and energetics of muscle contraction through the cyclical attachment and detachment of myosin motors to the actin filament with ad hoc assumptions on the dependence of the rate constants on the strain of the myosin motors. That relatively simple hypothesis is still present in recent models, even though with several modifications to adapt the model to the different experimental constraints which became subsequently available. However, already in that paper, one controversial aspect of the model became clear. Relatively high attachment and detachment rates of myosin to the actin filament were needed to simulate the high power output at intermediate velocity of contraction. However, these rates were incompatible with the relatively slow rise in tension after activation, despite the rise should be generated by the same rate functions. This discrepancy has not been fully solved till today, despite several hypotheses have been forwarded to reconcile the two aspects.Here, using a conventional muscle model, we show that the recently revealed mechanosensing mechanism of recruitment of myosin motors [Linarietal2015] can solve this long standing problem without any further ad-hoc hypotheses.

  1. Development and validation of a modified Hybrid-III six-year-old dummy model for simulating submarining in motor-vehicle crashes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Jingwen; Klinich, Kathleen D; Reed, Matthew P; Kokkolaras, Michael; Rupp, Jonathan D

    2012-06-01

    In motor-vehicle crashes, young school-aged children restrained by vehicle seat belt systems often suffer from abdominal injuries due to submarining. However, the current anthropomorphic test device, so-called "crash dummy", is not adequate for proper simulation of submarining. In this study, a modified Hybrid-III six-year-old dummy model capable of simulating and predicting submarining was developed using MADYMO (TNO Automotive Safety Solutions). The model incorporated improved pelvis and abdomen geometry and properties previously tested in a modified physical dummy. The model was calibrated and validated against four sled tests under two test conditions with and without submarining using a multi-objective optimization method. A sensitivity analysis using this validated child dummy model showed that dummy knee excursion, torso rotation angle, and the difference between head and knee excursions were good predictors for submarining status. It was also shown that restraint system design variables, such as lap belt angle, D-ring height, and seat coefficient of friction (COF), may have opposite effects on head and abdomen injury risks; therefore child dummies and dummy models capable of simulating submarining are crucial for future restraint system design optimization for young school-aged children. Copyright © 2011 IPEM. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. [An example of self-evaluation of a sense of achievement by students in 6-year pharmacy school with the model core curriculum of pharmaceutical education].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shingaki, Tomoteru; Koyanagi, Jyunichi; Nakamura, Hiroshi; Hirata, Takahiro; Ohta, Atsutane; Akimoto, Masayuki; Shirahata, Akira; Mitsumoto, Atsushi

    2013-01-01

    In March 2012, the first students, finishing the newly introduced 6-year-course of pharmaceutical education, have graduated and gone out into the world. At this point, the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT) is going to revise the model core curriculum of pharmaceutical education to be more suited for educating students to achieve their goal of becoming the clinical pharmacist standard defined by the revised School Education Act. Here we report the self-evaluation study based on the survey using questionnaire about a sense of achievement with Visual Analog Scales, regarding the fundamental quality as a pharmacist standard proposed by the Professional Activities Committee in the MEXT. The sample size of survey was about 600 of students studying in the Faculty of Pharmaceutical Sciences in Josai International University (JIU) and the survey was carried out during the period of March-April in 2012. The study suggested that the majority of graduates were satisfied with the new education system and marked as a well-balanced quality to be a pharmacist standard, after completing the 6-year pharmaceutical education based on "the model core-curriculum". It would be worthwhile to perform this kind of survey continuously to monitor the student's self-evaluation of a sense of achievement to verify the effectiveness of 6-year-course pharmaceutical education based on the newly establishing core curriculum in Japan.

  3. The Year Without a Ski Season: An Analysis of the Winter of 2015 for Three Ski Resorts in Western Canada Using Historical and Simulation Model Forecasted Climate Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pidwirny, M. J.; Goode, J. D.; Pedersen, S.

    2015-12-01

    The winter of 2015 will go down as "the year without a ski season" for many ski resorts located close to the west coast of Canada and the USA. During this winter season, a large area of the eastern North Pacific Ocean had extremely high sea surface temperatures. These high sea surface temperatures influenced weather patterns on the west coast of North America producing very mild temperatures inland. Further, in alpine environments precipitation that normally arrives in the form of snow instead fell as rain. This research examines the climate characteristics of the winter of 2015 in greater detail for three ski resorts in British Columbia, Canada: Mount Washington, Cypress Mountain and Hemlock Valley. For these resorts, historical (1901 to 2013) and IPCC AR5 climate model forecasted climate data (RCP8.5 for 2025, 2055, and 2085) was generated for the variable winter degree days climate database ClimateBC. A value for winter degree days climate data at nearby meteorological stations for comparative analysis. For all three resorts, the winter of 2015 proved to be warmer than any individual year in the period 1901 to 2013. Interpolations involving the multi-model ensemble forecast means suggest that the climate associated with winter of 2015 will become the average normal for these resorts in only 35 to 45 years under the RCP8.5 emission scenario.

  4. Investigation of market efficiency and Financial Stability between S&P 500 and London Stock Exchange: Monthly and yearly Forecasting of Time Series Stock Returns using ARMA model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rounaghi, Mohammad Mahdi; Nassir Zadeh, Farzaneh

    2016-08-01

    We investigated the presence and changes in, long memory features in the returns and volatility dynamics of S&P 500 and London Stock Exchange using ARMA model. Recently, multifractal analysis has been evolved as an important way to explain the complexity of financial markets which can hardly be described by linear methods of efficient market theory. In financial markets, the weak form of the efficient market hypothesis implies that price returns are serially uncorrelated sequences. In other words, prices should follow a random walk behavior. The random walk hypothesis is evaluated against alternatives accommodating either unifractality or multifractality. Several studies find that the return volatility of stocks tends to exhibit long-range dependence, heavy tails, and clustering. Because stochastic processes with self-similarity possess long-range dependence and heavy tails, it has been suggested that self-similar processes be employed to capture these characteristics in return volatility modeling. The present study applies monthly and yearly forecasting of Time Series Stock Returns in S&P 500 and London Stock Exchange using ARMA model. The statistical analysis of S&P 500 shows that the ARMA model for S&P 500 outperforms the London stock exchange and it is capable for predicting medium or long horizons using real known values. The statistical analysis in London Stock Exchange shows that the ARMA model for monthly stock returns outperforms the yearly. ​A comparison between S&P 500 and London Stock Exchange shows that both markets are efficient and have Financial Stability during periods of boom and bust.

  5. The influence of naturally-occurring organic acids on model estimates of lakewater acidification using the model of acidification of groundwater in catchments (MAGIC). Summary of research conducted during year 1

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sullivan, T.J.; Eilers, J.M. [E and S Environmental Chemistry, Inc., Corvallis, OR (United States); Cosby, B.J. [Virginia Univ., Charlottesville, VA (United States). Dept. of Environmental Sciences; Driscoll, C.T. [Syracuse Univ., NY (United States). Dept. of Civil Engineering; Hemond, H.F. [Massachusetts Inst. of Tech., Cambridge, MA (United States). Dept. of Civil Engineering; Charles, D.F. [Academy of Natural Sciences of Philadelphia, PA (United States). Patrick Center for Environmental Research; Norton, S.A. [Maine Univ., Orono, ME (United States). Dept. of Geological Sciences

    1993-03-05

    A project for the US Department of Energy, entitled ``Incorporation of an organic acid representation into MAGIC (Model of Acidification of Groundwater in Catchments) and Testing of the Revised Model UsingIndependent Data Sources`` was initiated by E&S Environmental Chemistry, Inc. in March, 1992. Major components of the project include: improving the MAGIC model by incorporating a rigorous organic acid representation, based on empirical data and geochemical considerations, and testing the revised model using data from paleolimnological hindcasts of preindustrial chemistry for 33 Adirondack Mountain lakes, and the results of whole-catchment artificial acidification projects in Maine and Norway. The ongoing research in this project involves development of an organic acid representation to be incorporated into the MAGIC modeland testing of the improved model using three independent data sources. The research during Year 1 has included conducting two workshops to agree on an approach for the organic acid modeling, developing the organic subroutine and incorporating it into MAGIC (Task 1), conducing MAGIC hindcasts for Adirondack lakes and comparing the results with paleolimnological reconstructions (Task 2), and conducting site visits to the manipulation project sites in Maine and Norway. The purpose of this report is to provide a summary of the work that has been conducted on this project during Year 1. Tasks 1 and 2 have now been completed.

  6. The natural history of cervical cancer in chinese women: results from an 11-year follow-up study in china using a multistate model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Shao-Kai; Kang, Le-Ni; Chang, Irene J; Zhao, Fang-Hui; Hu, Shang-Ying; Chen, Wen; Shi, Ju-Fang; Zhang, Xun; Pan, Qin-Jing; Li, Shu-Min; Qiao, You-Lin

    2014-07-01

    It is important to understand the natural history of cervical cancer, which has implications for cancer prevention and management. However, a dearth of studies on the long-term development of cervical cancer exists in China. We investigated the natural history of cervical cancer in Chinese women by creating a multistate model using 11 years of follow-up data from the Shanxi Province Cervical Cancer Screening Study I conducted from 1999 to 2010. In 1999, a total of 1,997 eligible women, ages 35 to 45 years, were enrolled in Xiangyuan County, Shanxi Province. Participants were followed up in 2005 and 2010, respectively. The average time a subject spent in CIN1 before transiting into another state was 1.4693 years [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.1215-1.9251] and the average time a subject spent in CIN2 was 2.9822 years (95% CI: 1.9790-4.4938). A subject's transition probability from CIN1 to normal increased with time. However, the transition probability from CIN1 to CIN2 was relatively lower, with 3-, 5-, and 10-year transition probabilities of 0.1415, 0.1066, and 0.0437. Comparison of 5-year transition probabilities between CIN2 to normal/CIN1 and CIN2 to CIN3(+) yielded a ratio of 2.74. Women with CIN1 had a substantial tendency for regression. Similarly, women with CIN2 had a higher probability of regression to normal/CIN1 than progression to CIN3(+). Findings in this study may have significant implications for the development and evaluation of formal cervical cancer preventive strategies in China. This study may serve as a valuable reference to future research on other multistate cancer processes. ©2014 American Association for Cancer Research.

  7. Evaluating the Predictive Impact of an Emergent Literacy Model on Dyslexia in Italian Children: A Four-Year Prospective Cohort Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bigozzi, Lucia; Tarchi, Christian; Pezzica, Sara; Pinto, Giuliana

    2016-01-01

    The strong differences in manifestation, prevalence, and incidence in dyslexia across languages invite studies in specific writing systems. In particular, the question of the role played by emergent literacy in opaque and transparent writing systems remains a fraught one. This research project tested, through a 4-year prospective cohort study, an emergent literacy model for the analysis of the characteristics of future dyslexic children and normally reading peers in Italian, a transparent writing system. A cohort of 450 children was followed from the last year of kindergarten to the third grade in their reading acquisition process. Dyslexic children were individuated (Grade 3), and their performances in kindergarten in textual competence, phonological awareness, and conceptual knowledge of the writing system were compared with a matched group of normally reading peers. Results showed the predictive relevance of the conceptual knowledge of the writing system. The study's implications are discussed. © Hammill Institute on Disabilities 2014.

  8. Translating the Cognitive Model of PTSD to the Treatment of Very Young Children: A Single Case Study of an 8-Year-Old Motor Vehicle Accident Survivor.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodall, Benjamin; Chadwick, Isobel; McKinnon, Anna; Werner-Seidler, Aliza; Meiser-Stedman, Richard; Smith, Patrick; Dalgleish, Tim

    2017-05-01

    Posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) is a clinical condition that occurs after a discrete traumatic event, such as an accident or assault. Research into PTSD has primarily been adult-focused; however, there is a growing body of evidence evaluating the theory and treatment of PTSD in young children. Consequently, cognitive behavior therapy (CBT) interventions for PTSD in youth have been developed that focus on 3 core components of the cognitive model-a disorganized memory of the trauma, maladaptive appraisals of the trauma and its effects (meanings), and dysfunctional coping mechanisms (management). Here, we describe the extension of this treatment approach (termed CBT-3M) to very young children (3-8 years) through the case of Dylan, an 8-year-old motor vehicle accident survivor. This serves as an illustration of the underlying theory and its successful application. Further work is intended to provide evidence of the efficacy of this treatment via an ongoing treatment trial. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  9. Variation in the amounts of selected volatiles in a model population of fragaria × ananassa Duch. As influenced by harvest year.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olbricht, Klaus; Ulrich, Detlef; Weiss, Kirsten; Grafe, Christine

    2011-02-09

    Volatile metabolites are a basis for sensory and resistance traits of Fragaria × ananassa . Stability of expression is important for the selection of cultivars. For the first time, the stability of volatiles in a strawberry population after cross-combination of two distinct cultivars ('Mieze Schindler' × 'Elsanta') has been investigated. In this work, environmentally caused variations in the synthesis of 18 volatiles were studied over two years using a model population of 158 clones. The stability varied throughout the F1 seedling population between the two years, defining stable and unstable genotypes with respect to volatile synthesis. Most of the stable genotypes exhibited low values in relative volatile concentration. Merely 6 stable volatiles were detected in the parental cultivars, whereas about 40% of the F1 progeny had up to 11 stable volatiles. Consequently, a higher stability in volatile synthesis can be achieved by breeding.

  10. Impact of Study Skills and Parent Education on First-Year GPA Among College Students With and Without ADHD: A Moderated Mediation Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gormley, Matthew J; Pinho, Trevor; Pollack, Brittany; Puzino, Kristina; Franklin, Melanie K; Busch, Chelsea; DuPaul, George J; Weyandt, Lisa L; Anastopoulos, Arthur D

    2018-02-01

    To test if the relationship between ADHD and academic achievement is mediated by service utilization and/or study skills, and if these mediation effects are moderated by parental education level. A bootstrapping method within structural equation modeling was used with data from 355 first year college students meeting strict criteria for ADHD or clearly without ADHD to test the mediation and moderation effects. Study skills, but not service utilization, significantly mediated the relationship between ADHD status and GPA; however, this relationship was not significant among students with at least one parent holding a master's degree or higher. Among first year college students study skills may be a more salient predictor of educational outcomes relative to ADHD status. Additional research into support services for college students with ADHD is needed, however, results suggest interventions targeting study skills may hold particular promise for these students.

  11. The importance of socio-economic context for social marketing models for improving reproductive health: evidence from 555 years of program experience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meekers, Dominique; Rahaim, Stephen

    2005-01-27

    Over the past two decades, social marketing programs have become an important element of the national family planning and HIV prevention strategy in several developing countries. As yet, there has not been any comprehensive empirical assessment to determine which of several social marketing models is most effective for a given socio-economic context. Such an assessment is urgently needed to inform the design of future social marketing programs, and to avoid that programs are designed using an ineffective model. This study addresses this issue using a database of annual statistics about reproductive health oriented social marketing programs in over 70 countries. In total, the database covers 555 years of program experience with social marketing programs that distribute and promote the use of oral contraceptives and condoms. Specifically, our analysis assesses to what extent the model used by different reproductive health social marketing programs has varied across different socio-economic contexts. We then use random effects regression to test in which socio-economic context each of the models is most successful at increasing use of socially marketed oral contraceptives and condoms. The results show that there has been a tendency to design reproductive health social marketing program with a management structure that matches the local context. However, the evidence also shows that this has not always been the case. While socio-economic context clearly influences the effectiveness of some of the social marketing models, program maturity and the size of the target population appear equally important. To maximize the effectiveness of future social marketing programs, it is essential that more effort is devoted to ensuring that such programs are designed using the model or approach that is most suitable for the local context.

  12. The importance of socio-economic context for social marketing models for improving reproductive health: Evidence from 555 years of program experience

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rahaim Stephen

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Over the past two decades, social marketing programs have become an important element of the national family planning and HIV prevention strategy in several developing countries. As yet, there has not been any comprehensive empirical assessment to determine which of several social marketing models is most effective for a given socio-economic context. Such an assessment is urgently needed to inform the design of future social marketing programs, and to avoid that programs are designed using an ineffective model. Methods This study addresses this issue using a database of annual statistics about reproductive health oriented social marketing programs in over 70 countries. In total, the database covers 555 years of program experience with social marketing programs that distribute and promote the use of oral contraceptives and condoms. Specifically, our analysis assesses to what extent the model used by different reproductive health social marketing programs has varied across different socio-economic contexts. We then use random effects regression to test in which socio-economic context each of the models is most successful at increasing use of socially marketed oral contraceptives and condoms. Results The results show that there has been a tendency to design reproductive health social marketing program with a management structure that matches the local context. However, the evidence also shows that this has not always been the case. While socio-economic context clearly influences the effectiveness of some of the social marketing models, program maturity and the size of the target population appear equally important. Conclusions To maximize the effectiveness of future social marketing programs, it is essential that more effort is devoted to ensuring that such programs are designed using the model or approach that is most suitable for the local context.

  13. The importance of socio-economic context for social marketing models for improving reproductive health: Evidence from 555 years of program experience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meekers, Dominique; Rahaim, Stephen

    2005-01-01

    Background Over the past two decades, social marketing programs have become an important element of the national family planning and HIV prevention strategy in several developing countries. As yet, there has not been any comprehensive empirical assessment to determine which of several social marketing models is most effective for a given socio-economic context. Such an assessment is urgently needed to inform the design of future social marketing programs, and to avoid that programs are designed using an ineffective model. Methods This study addresses this issue using a database of annual statistics about reproductive health oriented social marketing programs in over 70 countries. In total, the database covers 555 years of program experience with social marketing programs that distribute and promote the use of oral contraceptives and condoms. Specifically, our analysis assesses to what extent the model used by different reproductive health social marketing programs has varied across different socio-economic contexts. We then use random effects regression to test in which socio-economic context each of the models is most successful at increasing use of socially marketed oral contraceptives and condoms. Results The results show that there has been a tendency to design reproductive health social marketing program with a management structure that matches the local context. However, the evidence also shows that this has not always been the case. While socio-economic context clearly influences the effectiveness of some of the social marketing models, program maturity and the size of the target population appear equally important. Conclusions To maximize the effectiveness of future social marketing programs, it is essential that more effort is devoted to ensuring that such programs are designed using the model or approach that is most suitable for the local context. PMID:15676068

  14. Supporting Third Year Medical Students' Skill Acquisition and Self-Efficacy with Coping Models and Process Feedback during Laparoscopic Knot Tying Simulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dempsey, Michael S; Kauffman, Douglas F

    2017-01-01

    Background: During the third year general surgery clerkship, medical students are required to develop laparoscopic knot-tying skills. Knot-tying skills studies often rely on objective variables (e.g., time, materials used, number of iterations) that lend themselves to correlational analysis of pre- and post-intervention skill level. This study differs by examining how instructional interventions-role modeling and feedback-affect medical students' skill acquisition and self-efficacy during a laparoscopic surgical simulation training session. Methods: Seventy-eight surgical clerkship students were assigned randomly to one cell of a 2X2 factorial design. Participants observed one of two types of role modeling (expert vs. coping) and received either process-oriented or outcome-oriented feedback during a 30-min laparoscopic training session. Participants also completed several surveys that assessed their interest in surgery and their self-efficacy for laparoscopic knot tying. Results: Coping model groups tended to perform better on the knot tying task, though this was less the case in the presence of outcome feedback. Expert model groups slightly outperformed the coping model group on the peg transfer task, but in the presence of outcome feedback they reported the lowest satisfaction with their performance and the lowest self-efficacy for the knot tying task. The coping model combined with process feedback had a positive influence on students' efficiency in learning the task, on their satisfaction with their performance, and on their self-efficacy for laparoscopic knot typing. Conclusions: Results are discussed relative to self-regulated learning theory.

  15. Transitions in cognitive test scores over 5 and 10 years in elderly people: Evidence for a model of age-related deficit accumulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rockwood Kenneth

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background On average, health worsens with age, but many people have periods of improvement. A stochastic model provides an excellent description of how such changes occur. Given that cognition also changes with age, we wondered whether the same model might also describe the accumulation of errors in cognitive test scores in community-dwelling older adults. Methods In this prospective cohort study, 8954 older people (aged 65+ at baseline from the Canadian Study of Health and Aging were followed for 10 years. Cognitive status was defined by the number of errors on the 100-point Modified Min-Mental State Examination. The error count was chosen to parallel the deficit count in the general model of aging, which is based on deficit accumulation. As with the deficit count, a Markov chain transition model was employed, with 4 parameters. Results On average, the chance of making errors increased linearly with the number of errors present at each time interval. Changes in cognitive states were described with high accuracy (R2 = 0.96 by a modified Poisson distribution, using four parameters: the background chance of accumulating additional errors, the chance of incurring more or fewer errors, given the existing number, and the corresponding background and incremental chances of dying. Conclusion The change in the number of errors in a cognitive test corresponded to a general model that also summarizes age-related changes in deficits. The model accounts for both improvement and deterioration and appears to represent a clinically relevant means of quantifying how various aspects of health status change with age.

  16. Use of a 3D Skull Model to Improve Accuracy in Cranioplasty for Autologous Flap Resorption in a 3-Year-Old Child.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maduri, Rodolfo; Viaroli, Edoardo; Levivier, Marc; Daniel, Roy T; Messerer, Mahmoud

    2017-01-01

    Cranioplasty is considered a simple reconstructive procedure, usually performed in a single stage. In some clinical conditions, such as in children with multifocal flap osteolysis, it could represent a surgical challenge. In these patients, the partially resorbed autologous flap should be removed and replaced with a precustomed prosthesis which should perfectly match the expected bone defect. We describe the technique used for a navigated cranioplasty in a 3-year-old child with multifocal autologous flap osteolysis. We decided to perform a cranioplasty using a custom-made hydroxyapatite porous ceramic flap. The prosthesis was produced with an epoxy resin 3D skull model of the patient, which included a removable flap corresponding to the planned cranioplasty. Preoperatively, a CT scan of the 3D skull model was performed without the removable flap. The CT scan images of the 3D skull model were merged with the preoperative 3D CT scan of the patient and navigated during the cranioplasty to define with precision the cranioplasty margins. After removal of the autologous resorbed flap, the hydroxyapatite prosthesis matched perfectly with the skull defect. The anatomical result was excellent. Thus, the implementation of cranioplasty with image merge navigation of a 3D skull model may improve cranioplasty accuracy, allowing precise anatomic reconstruction in complex skull defect cases. © 2017 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  17. Factors associated with mothers' beliefs and practices concerning injury prevention in under five-year children, based on health belief model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poorolajal, Jalal; Cheraghi, Parvin; Hazavehei, Seyed Mohammad Mahdi; Rezapur-Shahkolai, Forouzan

    2012-05-29

    Injuries are the first leading but predictable, avoidable and preventable cause of death among under five-year children worldwide. The present study aimed to identify the factors associated with mothers' beliefs and practices concerning injury prevention in under five-year children. This cross-sectional study was conducted from August to October 2011 in Hamadan County, the west of Iran, enrolling 580 mothers with at least one under five-year child. The data collection instrument was a questionnaire including 85 questions regarding demographic characteristics; knowledge; practices; Health Belief Model (HBM) constructs; and history of injury occurrence among the children. The reliability of the questionnaire was evaluated by a pilot study using Cronbach's alpha coefficient. Data had been collected through interview with mothers, by trained interviewers. Almost 22.59% of mothers reported at least one injury in their under five-year children. Of 131 injuries occurred, 85 cases were mild, 23 cases were moderate, and 23 cases were severe. About 52.67% of injuries occurred in boys, 37.41% in less than one-year children, 73.28% at home, and 61.07% when the children were playing game. Fall (24.28%), burn (20.61%) and poisoning (14.50%) were the common causes of injuries. There was a positive correlation between mothers' practices and knowledge, perceived benefits, cues to action and self-efficacy and a negative correlation between mothers' practices and perceived susceptibility, severity, and barriers. Knowledge, perceived severity, perceived barriers, cues to action, and self-efficacy of mothers toward the injuries in children were among the most important predictive constructs, which may be used for planning educating programs.

  18. A New Hybrid Spatio-temporal Model for Estimating Daily Multi-year PM2.5 Concentrations Across Northeastern USA Using High Resolution Aerosol Optical Depth Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kloog, Itai; Chudnovsky, Alexandra A.; Just, Allan C.; Nordio, Francesco; Koutrakis, Petros; Coull, Brent A.; Lyapustin, Alexei; Wang, Yujie; Schwartz, Joel

    2014-01-01

    The use of satellite-based aerosol optical depth (AOD) to estimate fine particulate matter PM(sub 2.5) for epidemiology studies has increased substantially over the past few years. These recent studies often report moderate predictive power, which can generate downward bias in effect estimates. In addition, AOD measurements have only moderate spatial resolution, and have substantial missing data. We make use of recent advances in MODIS satellite data processing algorithms (Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC), which allow us to use 1 km (versus currently available 10 km) resolution AOD data.We developed and cross validated models to predict daily PM(sub 2.5) at a 1X 1 km resolution across the northeastern USA (New England, New York and New Jersey) for the years 2003-2011, allowing us to better differentiate daily and long term exposure between urban, suburban, and rural areas. Additionally, we developed an approach that allows us to generate daily high-resolution 200 m localized predictions representing deviations from the area 1 X 1 km grid predictions. We used mixed models regressing PM(sub 2.5) measurements against day-specific random intercepts, and fixed and random AOD and temperature slopes. We then use generalized additive mixed models with spatial smoothing to generate grid cell predictions when AOD was missing. Finally, to get 200 m localized predictions, we regressed the residuals from the final model for each monitor against the local spatial and temporal variables at each monitoring site. Our model performance was excellent (mean out-of-sample R(sup 2) = 0.88). The spatial and temporal components of the out-of-sample results also presented very good fits to the withheld data (R(sup 2) = 0.87, R(sup)2 = 0.87). In addition, our results revealed very little bias in the predicted concentrations (Slope of predictions versus withheld observations = 0.99). Our daily model results show high predictive accuracy at high spatial resolutions

  19. [Fertility behavior in Quebec, family allowances, and taxes: results and simulations with a discrete choice model for the years 1975-1987].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lefebvre, P; Brouillette, L; Felteau, C

    1994-12-01

    "We suppose that women (couples), who are less than 40 years old, are faced with three types of sequential decisions: the fertility decision, the decision relative to the number of children to have and the decision concerning labour force participation.... We use a nested polychotomous discrete choice model to estimate the responsiveness of the behaviour of 'married' women in Quebec to variations in the expected flow of revenue resulting from changes in the parameters of the personal income tax and in the level of public monetary transfers conditional on the number of children. The model is estimated with micro-data from 9 repeated cross-sections for the years 1975 to 1987 with a full information maximum likelihood method.... This empirical setting is used to simulate the effects of changes made to the fiscal and transfer policies in favor of families with dependent children on fertility, [women's] labor force participation and the importance of spending costs for the two levels of government." (SUMMARY IN ENG) excerpt

  20. Probabilistic modelling to assess exposure to three artificial sweeteners of young Irish patients aged 1-3 years with PKU and CMPA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Sullivan, Aaron J; Pigat, Sandrine; O'Mahony, Cian; Gibney, Michael J; McKevitt, Aideen I

    2016-11-01

    The choice of suitable normal foods is limited for individuals with particular medical conditions, e.g., inborn errors of metabolism (phenylketonuria - PKU) or severe cow's milk protein allergy (CMPA). Patients may have dietary restrictions and exclusive or partial replacement of specific food groups with specially formulated products to meet particular nutrition requirements. Artificial sweeteners are used to improve the appearance and palatability of such food products to avoid food refusal and ensure dietary adherence. Young children have a higher risk of exceeding acceptable daily intakes for additives than adults due to higher food intakes kg -1 body weight. The Budget Method and EFSA's Food Additives Intake Model (FAIM) are not equipped to assess partial dietary replacement with special formulations as they are built on data from dietary surveys of consumers without special medical requirements impacting the diet. The aim of this study was to explore dietary exposure modelling as a means of estimating the intake of artificial sweeteners by young PKU and CMPA patients aged 1-3 years. An adapted validated probabilistic model (FACET) was used to assess patients' exposure to artificial sweeteners. Food consumption data were derived from the food consumption survey data of healthy young children in Ireland from the National Preschool and Nutrition Survey (NPNS, 2010-11). Specially formulated foods for special medical purposes were included in the exposure model to replace restricted foods. Inclusion was based on recommendations for adequate protein intake and dietary adherence data. Exposure assessment results indicated that young children with PKU and CMPA have higher relative average intakes of artificial sweeteners than healthy young children. The reliability and robustness of the model in the estimation of patient additive exposures was further investigated and provides the first exposure estimates for these special populations.

  1. Interannual control of plankton communities by deep winter mixing and prey/predator interactions in the NW Mediterranean: Results from a 30-year 3D modeling study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Auger, P. A.; Ulses, C.; Estournel, C.; Stemmann, L.; Somot, S.; Diaz, F.

    2014-05-01

    A realistic modeling approach is designed to address the role of winter mixing on the interannual variability of plankton dynamics in the north-western (NW) Mediterranean basin. For the first time, a high-resolution coupled hydrodynamic-biogeochemical model (Eco3m-S) covering a 30-year period (1976-2005) is validated on available in situ and satellite data for the NW Mediterranean. In this region, cold, dry winds in winter often lead to deep convection and strong upwelling of nutrients into the euphotic layer. High nutrient contents at the end of winter then support the development of a strong spring bloom of phytoplankton. Model results indicate that annual primary production is not affected by winter mixing due to seasonal balance (minimum in winter and maximum in spring). However, the total annual water column-integrated phytoplankton biomass appears to be favored by winter mixing because zooplankton grazing activity is low in winter and early spring. This reduced grazing is explained here by the rarefaction of prey due to both light limitation and the effect of mixing-induced dilution on prey/predator interactions. A negative impact of winter mixing on winter zooplankton biomass is generally simulated except for mesozooplankton. This difference is assumed to stem from the lower parameterized mortality, top trophic position and detritivorous diet of mesozooplankton in the model. Moreover, model suggests that the variability of annual mesozooplankton biomass is principally modulated by the effects of winter mixing on winter biomass. Thus, interannual variability of winter nutrient contents in the euphotic layer, resulting from winter mixing, would control spring primary production and thus annual mesozooplankton biomass. Our results show a bottom-up control of mesozooplankton communities, as observed at a coastal location of the Ligurian Sea.

  2. The Effects of Model-Based Educational Intervention on Self-medication Behavior in Mothers with Children less than 2- year

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rostam Heydartabar

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Background: Self-medication by people is one of the major issues in the world that can be lead to numerous medical and economic problems, this especially issue in children under 2 years who are at the age of growth and development have great importance. The aim of this study was investigate the effects of model-based educational interventions on self-medication behavior in mothers with children under 2 years of age who referred to the health centers of Firoozkooh city (Iran. Materials and Methods: This study was quasi - experimental interventional study. The study population consisted of mothers with children under 2 years old referring to health centers of the Firoozkooh city, Iran. The data collection tool was researcher made questionnaire which its validity and reliability was assessed than was used. The required information was collected before and after the educational intervention. Then 4 months after the educational intervention, evaluation was done and data analysis was using SPSS-20. Results: Significant difference was not found between mean scores of knowledge, perceived sensitivity, severity, benefits, barriers, self-efficacy with performance (self-medication before the educational intervention (P>0.05. But after the educational intervention, statistically significant difference was found between mean scores of knowledge, perceived sensitivity, severity, benefits, barriers, and self-efficacy with performance (P

  3. Conceptual model for millennial climate variability: a possible combined solar-thermohaline circulation origin for the {proportional_to}1,500-year cycle

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dima, Mihai [Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven (Germany); University of Bucharest, Department of Atmospheric Physics, Faculty of Physics, P.O. Box 11440, Magurele, Bucharest (Romania); Lohmann, Gerrit [Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven (Germany)

    2009-02-15

    Dansgaard-Oeschger and Heinrich events are the most pronounced climatic changes over the last 120,000 years. Although many of their properties were derived from climate reconstructions, the associated physical mechanisms are not yet fully understood. These events are paced by a {proportional_to}1,500-year periodicity whose origin remains unclear. In a conceptual model approach, we show that this millennial variability can originate from rectification of an external (solar) forcing, and suggest that the thermohaline circulation, through a threshold response, could be the rectifier. We argue that internal threshold response of the thermohaline circulation (THC) to solar forcing is more likely to produce the observed DO cycles than amplification of weak direct {proportional_to}1,500-year forcing of unknown origin, by THC. One consequence of our concept is that the millennial variability is viewed as a derived mode without physical processes on its characteristic time scale. Rather, the mode results from the linear representation in the Fourier space of nonlinearly transformed fundamental modes. (orig.)

  4. The Effect of Education on Preventive Behaviors of Failure to Thrive in Mothers with Children Aged One to Five Years: Applied Health Belief Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mahtab Navabi

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background: One of the common and important health problems is failure to thrive in childhood. The purpose of this study was to determine the effect of education on preventive behaviors of failure to thrive in mothers with children based on health belief model. Materials and Methods: This study is an interventional one in which 100 mothers with children one to five years involved (samples divided into two case and control groups, each of 50 sampling was done by a simple random method. For collecting information, a researcher-made questionnaire based on the health belief model and performance check list were used. Then, case group was trained for one month. 3 months after training, data were gathered and analyzed by Spss20 software. In addition to descriptive statistics, tests such as Chi-square, paired t-test and independent T-test were used. Results: The mean age of case and control was 29.98±5.51 and 25.35±5.30 years old, respectively. The average age of children was 23.31 ± 13.14 and 27.55 ± 14.01months, respectively. Before the intervention, no significant difference was seen between groups. The average score in case group before intervention was as: knowledge(31.87±14.24, perceived susceptibility(64.23±5.86, perceived severity(64.41±9.34, perceived benefits(61.75±6.79, perceived barriers(67.91±8.14, self-efficacy(68.00±7.87, cues to action(44.53±6.82 and action(70.00±9.77. However, after the intervention, significant differences between groups in all variables were obserred. Conclusion: According to the results, education based on health belief model is recommended for promoting preventive behaviors of failure to thrive.

  5. Modeled and measured glacier change and related glaciological, hydrological, and meteorological conditions at South Cascade Glacier, Washington, balance and water years 2006 and 2007

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bidlake, William R.; Josberger, Edward G.; Savoca, Mark E.

    2010-01-01

    Winter snow accumulation and summer snow and ice ablation were measured at South Cascade Glacier, Washington, to estimate glacier mass balance quantities for balance years 2006 and 2007. Mass balances were computed with assistance from a new model that was based on the works of other glacier researchers. The model, which was developed for mass balance practitioners, coupled selected meteorological and glaciological data to systematically estimate daily mass balance at selected glacier sites. The North Cascade Range in the vicinity of South Cascade Glacier accumulated approximately average to above average winter snow packs during 2006 and 2007. Correspondingly, the balance years 2006 and 2007 maximum winter snow mass balances of South Cascade Glacier, 2.61 and 3.41 meters water equivalent, respectively, were approximately equal to or more positive (larger) than the average of such balances since 1959. The 2006 glacier summer balance, -4.20 meters water equivalent, was among the four most negative since 1959. The 2007 glacier summer balance, -3.63 meters water equivalent, was among the 14 most negative since 1959. The glacier continued to lose mass during 2006 and 2007, as it commonly has since 1953, but the loss was much smaller during 2007 than during 2006. The 2006 glacier net balance, -1.59 meters water equivalent, was 1.02 meters water equivalent more negative (smaller) than the average during 1953-2005. The 2007 glacier net balance, -0.22 meters water equivalent, was 0.37 meters water equivalent less negative (larger) than the average during 1953-2006. The 2006 accumulation area ratio was less than 0.10, owing to isolated patches of accumulated snow that endured the 2006 summer season. The 2006 equilibrium line altitude was higher than the glacier. The 2007 accumulation area ratio and equilibrium line altitude were 0.60 and 1,880 meters, respectively. Accompanying the glacier mass losses were retreat of the terminus and reduction of total glacier area. The

  6. Evaluation of land surface model simulations of evapotranspiration over a 12-year crop succession: impact of soil hydraulic and vegetation properties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garrigues, S.; Olioso, A.; Calvet, J. C.; Martin, E.; Lafont, S.; Moulin, S.; Chanzy, A.; Marloie, O.; Buis, S.; Desfonds, V.; Bertrand, N.; Renard, D.

    2015-07-01

    Evapotranspiration has been recognized as one of the most uncertain terms in the surface water balance simulated by land surface models. In this study, the SURFEX/ISBA-A-gs (Interaction Sol-Biosphere-Atmosphere) simulations of evapotranspiration are assessed at the field scale over a 12-year Mediterranean crop succession. The model is evaluated in its standard implementation which relies on the use of the ISBA pedotransfer estimates of the soil properties. The originality of this work consists in explicitly representing the succession of crop cycles and inter-crop bare soil periods in the simulations and assessing its impact on the dynamics of simulated and measured evapotranspiration over a long period of time. The analysis focuses on key parameters which drive the simulation of ET, namely the rooting depth, the soil moisture at saturation, the soil moisture at field capacity and the soil moisture at wilting point. A sensitivity analysis is first conducted to quantify the relative contribution of each parameter on ET simulation over 12 years. The impact of the estimation method used to retrieve the soil parameters (pedotransfer function, laboratory and field methods) on ET is then analysed. The benefit of representing the variations in time of the rooting depth and wilting point is evaluated. Finally, the propagation of uncertainties in the soil parameters on ET simulations is quantified through a Monte Carlo analysis and compared with the uncertainties triggered by the mesophyll conductance which is a key above-ground driver of the stomatal conductance. This work shows that evapotranspiration mainly results from the soil evaporation when it is continuously simulated over a Mediterranean crop succession. This results in a high sensitivity of simulated evapotranspiration to uncertainties in the soil moisture at field capacity and the soil moisture at saturation, both of which drive the simulation of soil evaporation. Field capacity was proved to be the most

  7. Helicopter Scene Response for Stroke Patients: A 5-Year Experience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hawk, Andrew; Marco, Catherine; Huang, Matt; Chow, Bonnie

    The purpose of this study was to examine the usefulness of an emergency medical service (EMS)-requested air medical helicopter response directly to the scene for a patient with clinical evidence of an ischemic cerebrovascular accident (CVA) and transport to a regional comprehensive CVA center. CareFlight, an air medical critical care transportation service, is based in Dayton, OH. The 3 CareFlight helicopters are geographically located and provided transport to all CVA scene patients in this study. A retrospective chart review was completed for all CareFlight CVA scene flights for 5 years (2011-2015). A total of 136 adult patients were transported. EMS criteria included CVA symptom presence for less than 3 hours or awoke abnormal, nonhypoglycemia, and a significantly positive Cincinnati Prehospital Stroke Scale. The majority of patients (75%) met all 3 EMS CVA scene criteria; 27.5% of these patients received peripheral tissue plasminogen activator, and 9.8% underwent a neurointerventional procedure. Using a 3-step EMS triage for acute CVA, air medical transport from the scene to a comprehensive stroke center allowed for the timely administration of tissue plasminogen activator and/or a neurointerventional procedure in a substantive percentage of patients. Further investigation into air medical scene response for acute stroke is warranted. Copyright © 2016 Air Medical Journal Associates. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Skin diseases and tattoos: a five-year experience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Napolitano, Maddalena; Megna, Matteo; Cappello, Milena; Mazzella, Caterina; Patruno, Cataldo

    2017-05-16

    Decorative tattooing as a body art form underwent an exponential increase during the last two decades, particularly among teenagers and young adults. Consequently, the number of reported adverse reactions after tattooing has increased. The most frequent reported skin reactions to tattoo include infectious (bacterial, viral, fungal) or inflammatory (allergic contact dermatitis and granulomatous reaction) diseases. Moreover, tattoos can also induce the development of typical skin lesions of pre-existing dermatoses, a phenomenon known as isomorphism reactive or Koëbner phenomenon, which commonly occurs in patients with psoriasis, vitiligo, or lichen planus. A retrospective study analyzing records data of patients attending the Department of Dermatology, University of Naples "Federico II" during 2011-2015 was performed. All cases of tattoorelated or closely located dermatitis were selected. We observed 19 patients (mean age: 26.4 year-old) showing cutaneous conditions related to the practice of tattooing. Allergic contact dermatitis was reported as the most common cutaneous disease linked to tattooing (31.6%), followed by granulomatous reactions (26.3%). These data are consistent with those already reported in literature. Our results highlight the need to develop detailed regulations regarding tattoos practice, used materials, as well as execution procedures in order to limit the outbreak of tattooing related skin diseases.

  9. Performance of STICS model to predict rainfed corn evapotranspiration and biomass evaluated for 6 years between 1995 and 2006 using daily aggregated eddy covariance fluxes and ancillary measurements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pattey, Elizabeth; Jégo, Guillaume; Bourgeois, Gaétan

    2010-05-01

    Verifying the performance of process-based crop growth models to predict evapotranspiration and crop biomass is a key component of the adaptation of agricultural crop production to climate variations. STICS, developed by INRA, was part of the models selected by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada to be implemented for environmental assessment studies on climate variations, because of its built-in ability to assimilate biophysical descriptors such as LAI derived from satellite imagery and its open architecture. The model prediction of shoot biomass was calibrated using destructive biomass measurements over one season, by adjusting six cultivar parameters and three generic plant parameters to define two grain corn cultivars adapted to the 1000-km long Mixedwood Plains ecozone. Its performance was then evaluated using a database of 40 years-sites of corn destructive biomass and yield. In this study we evaluate the temporal response of STICS evapotranspiration and biomass accumulation predictions against estimates using daily aggregated eddy covariance fluxes. The flux tower was located in an experimental farm south of Ottawa and measurements carried out over corn fields in 1995, 1996, 1998, 2000, 2002 and 2006. Daytime and nighttime fluxes were QC/QA and gap-filled separately. Soil respiration was partitioned to calculate the corn net daily CO2 uptake, which was converted into dry biomass. Out of the six growing seasons, three (1995, 1998, 2002) had water stress periods during corn grain filling. Year 2000 was cool and wet, while 1996 had heat and rainfall distributed evenly over the season and 2006 had a wet spring. STICS can predict evapotranspiration using either crop coefficients, when wind speed and air moisture are not available, or resistance. The first approach provided higher prediction for all the years than the resistance approach and the flux measurements. The dynamic of evapotranspiration prediction of STICS was very good for the growing seasons without

  10. Eight New Luminous z > 6 Quasars Selected via SED Model Fitting of VISTA, WISE and Dark Energy Survey Year 1 Observations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Reed, S.L.; et al.

    2017-01-17

    We present the discovery and spectroscopic confirmation with the ESO NTT and Gemini South telescopes of eight new 6.0 < z < 6.5 quasars with z$_{AB}$ < 21.0. These quasars were photometrically selected without any star-galaxy morphological criteria from 1533 deg$^{2}$ using SED model fitting to photometric data from the Dark Energy Survey (g, r, i, z, Y), the VISTA Hemisphere Survey (J, H, K) and the Wide-Field Infrared Survey Explorer (W1, W2). The photometric data was fitted with a grid of quasar model SEDs with redshift dependent Lyman-{\\alpha} forest absorption and a range of intrinsic reddening as well as a series of low mass cool star models. Candidates were ranked using on a SED-model based $\\chi^{2}$-statistic, which is extendable to other future imaging surveys (e.g. LSST, Euclid). Our spectral confirmation success rate is 100% without the need for follow-up photometric observations as used in other studies of this type. Combined with automatic removal of the main types of non-astrophysical contaminants the method allows large data sets to be processed without human intervention and without being over run by spurious false candidates. We also present a robust parametric redshift estimating technique that gives comparable accuracy to MgII and CO based redshift estimators. We find two z $\\sim$ 6.2 quasars with HII near zone sizes < 3 proper Mpc which could indicate that these quasars may be young with ages < 10$^6$ - 10$^7$ years or lie in over dense regions of the IGM. The z = 6.5 quasar VDESJ0224-4711 has J$_{AB}$ = 19.75 is the second most luminous quasar known with z > 6.5.

  11. Testing the four-factor model of personality vulnerability to alcohol misuse: a three-wave, one-year longitudinal study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mackinnon, Sean P; Kehayes, Ivy-Lee L; Clark, Roderick; Sherry, Simon B; Stewart, Sherry H

    2014-12-01

    The 4-factor model of personality vulnerability identifies 4 personality risk factors for alcohol misuse: hopelessness, anxiety sensitivity, impulsivity, and sensation seeking. These personality traits are associated with distinct mechanisms and motivations for alcohol misuse. Individuals high in hopelessness drink to regulate dysphoric affect, while those high in anxiety sensitivity drink to reduce anxiety and to conform to peer expectations. Individuals high in sensation seeking are highly sensitive to the rewarding properties of alcohol, and misuse alcohol to maximize enjoyment. Impulsivity is a broad risk factor contributing to all drinking motives. We hypothesized that personality vulnerabilities would indirectly predict alcohol quantity and problems through specific drinking motives theorized by the 4-factor model. The present study tested hypotheses using a 3-wave, 1-year longitudinal study of undergraduate drinkers (N = 302). Data were analyzed using multilevel path analysis. Hopelessness and impulsivity were positively related to drinking motives in the expected fashion. Anxiety sensitivity was related to coping-anxiety and conformity motives only in the between-subjects model (partially supporting hypotheses), while sensation seeking was generally unrelated to all drinking motives and alcohol outcomes (failing to support hypotheses). Enhancement motives predicted alcohol quantity and problems at both levels, coping-depression motives predicted alcohol problems at the between-subjects level only, and coping-anxiety, conformity, and social motives failed to predict alcohol outcomes beyond other motives. Overall, this study partially supports the 4-factor model, with the strongest support emerging for impulsivity and hopelessness. This study suggests that personality traits such as impulsivity and hopelessness may be important targets in prevention and treatment with undergraduate drinkers.

  12. Validation of a new mortality risk prediction model for people 65 years and older in northwest Russia: The Crystal risk score.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turusheva, Anna; Frolova, Elena; Bert, Vaes; Hegendoerfer, Eralda; Degryse, Jean-Marie

    2017-07-01

    Prediction models help to make decisions about further management in clinical practice. This study aims to develop a mortality risk score based on previously identified risk predictors and to perform internal and external validations. In a population-based prospective cohort study of 611 community-dwelling individuals aged 65+ in St. Petersburg (Russia), all-cause mortality risks over 2.5 years follow-up were determined based on the results obtained from anthropometry, medical history, physical performance tests, spirometry and laboratory tests. C-statistic, risk reclassification analysis, integrated discrimination improvement analysis, decision curves analysis, internal validation and external validation were performed. Older adults were at higher risk for mortality [HR (95%CI)=4.54 (3.73-5.52)] when two or more of the following components were present: poor physical performance, low muscle mass, poor lung function, and anemia. If anemia was combined with high C-reactive protein (CRP) and high B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) was added the HR (95%CI) was slightly higher (5.81 (4.73-7.14)) even after adjusting for age, sex and comorbidities. Our models were validated in an external population of adults 80+. The extended model had a better predictive capacity for cardiovascular mortality [HR (95%CI)=5.05 (2.23-11.44)] compared to the baseline model [HR (95%CI)=2.17 (1.18-4.00)] in the external population. We developed and validated a new risk prediction score that may be used to identify older adults at higher risk for mortality in Russia. Additional studies need to determine which targeted interventions improve the outcomes of these at-risk individuals. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. Eight new luminous z ≥ 6 quasars discovered via SED model fitting of VISTA, WISE and Dark Energy Survey Year 1 observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reed, S. L.; McMahon, R. G.; Martini, P.; Banerji, M.; Auger, M.; Hewett, P. C.; Koposov, S. E.; Gibbons, S. L. J.; Gonzalez-Solares, E.; Ostrovski, F.; Tie, S. S.; Abdalla, F. B.; Allam, S.; Benoit-Lévy, A.; Bertin, E.; Brooks, D.; Buckley-Geer, E.; Burke, D. L.; Carnero Rosell, A.; Carrasco Kind, M.; Carretero, J.; da Costa, L. N.; DePoy, D. L.; Desai, S.; Diehl, H. T.; Doel, P.; Evrard, A. E.; Finley, D. A.; Flaugher, B.; Fosalba, P.; Frieman, J.; García-Bellido, J.; Gaztanaga, E.; Goldstein, D. A.; Gruen, D.; Gruendl, R. A.; Gutierrez, G.; James, D. J.; Kuehn, K.; Kuropatkin, N.; Lahav, O.; Lima, M.; Maia, M. A. G.; Marshall, J. L.; Melchior, P.; Miller, C. J.; Miquel, R.; Nord, B.; Ogando, R.; Plazas, A. A.; Romer, A. K.; Sanchez, E.; Scarpine, V.; Schubnell, M.; Sevilla-Noarbe, I.; Smith, R. C.; Sobreira, F.; Suchyta, E.; Swanson, M. E. C.; Tarle, G.; Tucker, D. L.; Walker, A. R.; Wester, W.

    2017-07-01

    We present the discovery and spectroscopic confirmation with the European Southern Observatory New Technology Telescope (NTT) and Gemini South telescopes of eight new, and the rediscovery of two previously known, 6.0 energy distribution (SED) model fitting to photometric data from Dark Energy Survey (g, r, I, z, Y), VISTA Hemisphere Survey (J, H, K) and Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (W1, W2). The photometric data were fitted with a grid of quasar model SEDs with redshift-dependent Ly α forest absorption and a range of intrinsic reddening as well as a series of low-mass cool star models. Candidates were ranked using an SED-model-based χ2-statistic, which is extendable to other future imaging surveys (e.g. LSST and Euclid). Our spectral confirmation success rate is 100 per cent without the need for follow-up photometric observations as used in other studies of this type. Combined with automatic removal of the main types of non-astrophysical contaminants, the method allows large data sets to be processed without human intervention and without being overrun by spurious false candidates. We also present a robust parametric redshift estimator that gives comparable accuracy to Mg II and CO-based redshift estimators. We find two z ˜ 6.2 quasars with H II near zone sizes ≤3 proper Mpc that could indicate that these quasars may be young with ages ≲ 106-107 years or lie in over dense regions of the IGM. The z = 6.5 quasar VDES J0224-4711 has JAB = 19.75 and is the second most luminous quasar known with z ≥ 6.5.

  14. Do retreatment tuberculosis patients need special treatment response follow-up beyond the standard regimen? Finding of five-year retrospective study in pastoralist setting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Getnet, Fentabil; Sileshi, Henok; Seifu, Wubareg; Yirga, Selam; Alemu, Abere Shiferaw

    2017-12-12

    Treatment outcomes serve as proxy measures of the quality of tuberculosis treatment provided by the health care system, and it is essential to evaluate the effectiveness of Directly Observed Therapy-Short course program in controlling the disease, and reducing treatment failure, default and death. Hence, we evaluated tuberculosis treatment success rate, its trends and predictors of unsuccessful treatment outcome in Ethiopian Somali region where 85% of its population is pastoralist. A retrospective review of 5 years data (September 2009 to August 2014) was conducted to evaluate the treatment outcome of 1378 randomly selected tuberculosis patients treated in Kharamara, Dege-habour and Gode hospitals. We extracted data on socio-demographics, HIV Sero-status, tuberculosis type, treatment outcome and year using clinical chart abstraction sheet. Tuberculosis treatment outcomes were categorized into successful (cured and/or completed) and unsuccessful (died/failed/default) according to the national tuberculosis guideline. Data was entered using EpiData 3.1 and analyzed using SPSS 20. Chi-square (χ 2 ) test and logistic regression model were used to reveal the predictors of unsuccessful treatment outcome at P ≤ 0.05 significance level. The majority of participants was male (59.1%), pulmonary smear negative (49.2%) and new cases (90.6%). The median age was 26 years [IQR: 18-40] and HIV co-infection rate was 4.6%. The overall treatment success rate was 86.8% [95%CI: 84.9% - 88.5%]; however, 4.8%, 7.6% and 0.7% of patients died, defaulted and failed to cure respectively. It fluctuated across the years and ranged from 76.9% to 94% [p tuberculosis types and HIV status (P > 0.05). This study revealed that the overall tuberculosis treatment success rate has realized the global target for 2011-2015. However, it does not guarantee its continuity as adverse treatment outcomes might unpredictably occur anytime and anywhere. Therefore, continual effort to effectively

  15. Climate to fish: Synthesizing field work, data and models in a 39-year retrospective analysis of seasonal processes on the eastern Bering Sea shelf and slope

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ortiz, Ivonne; Aydin, Kerim; Hermann, Albert J.; Gibson, Georgina A.; Punt, André E.; Wiese, Francis K.; Eisner, Lisa B.; Ferm, Nissa; Buckley, Troy W.; Moffitt, Elizabeth A.; Ianelli, James N.; Murphy, James; Dalton, Michael; Cheng, Wei; Wang, Muyin; Hedstrom, Kate; Bond, Nicholas A.; Curchitser, Enrique N.; Boyd, Charlotte

    2016-12-01

    We combined field data and the output from a climate-to-fish coupled biophysical model to calculate weekly climatologies and 1971-2009 time series of physical and biological drivers for 16 distinct regions of the eastern Bering Sea shelf and slope. We focus on spatial trends and physical-biological interactions as a framework to compare model output to localized or season-specific observations. Data on pollock (≥8 cm) diet were used to evaluate energy flows and zooplankton dynamics predicted by the model. Model validation shows good agreement to sea-ice cover albeit with a one month delay in ice retreat. Likewise, the timing of spring phytoplankton blooms in the model were delayed approximately one month in the south and extend further into summer, but the relative timing between the spring and fall bloom peaks was consistent with observations. Ice-related primary producers may shift the timing of the spring bloom maximum biomass earlier in years when sea ice was still present after mid-March in the southern regions. Including the effects of explicit, dynamic fish predation on zooplankton in the model shifts the seasonal spring peak and distribution of zooplankton later in the year relative to simulations with implicit predation dependent only on zooplankton biomass and temperature; the former capturing the dynamic demand on zooplankton prey by fish. Pollock diets based on stomach samples collected in late fall and winter from 1982-2013 show overwintering euphausiids and small pollock as key prey items in the outer and southern Bering Sea shelf; a characteristic not currently present in the model. The model captured two large-scale gradients, supported by field data, characterizing the overall dynamics: 1) inshore to off-shelf physical and biological differences with a gradient in inter-annual variability from higher frequency inshore to lower frequency offshore; and 2) latitudinal gradients in the timing of events. The combined effects of length of day

  16. Modeling soil organic carbon stock after 10 years of cover crops in Mediterranean vineyards: improving ANN prediction by digital terrain analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lo Papa, Giuseppe; Novara, Agata; Santoro, Antonino; Gristina, Luciano

    2014-05-01

    Estimate changes in soil organic carbon (SOC) stock after Agro Environment Measures adoption are strategically for national and regional scale. Uncertainty in estimates also represents a very important parameter in terms of evaluation of the exact costs and agro environment payments to farmers. In this study we modeled the variation of SOC stock after 10-year cover crop adoption in a vine growing area of South-Eastern Sicily. A paired-site approach was chosen to study the difference in SOC stocks. A total 100 paired sites (i.e. two adjacent plots) were chosen and three soil samples (Ap soil horizons, circa 0-30 cm depth) were collected in each plot to obtain a mean value of organic carbon concentration for each plot. The variation of soil organic carbon (SOCv) for each plot was calculated by differences between concentrations of the plot subjected to cover crops (SOC10) and the relative plot subjected to traditional agronomic practices (SOC0). The feasibility of using artificial neural networks as a method to predict soil organic carbon stock variation and the contribution of digital terrain analysis to improve the prediction were tested. We randomly subdivided the experimental values of SOC-stock difference in 80 learning samples and 20 test samples for model validation. SOCv was strongly correlated to the SOC0 concentration. Model validation using only SOCv as unique covariate showed a training and test perfection of 0.724 and 0.871 respectively. We hypothesized that terrain-driven hydrological flow patterns, mass-movement and local micro-climatic factors could be responsible processes contributing for SOC redistributions, thus affecting soil carbon stock in time. Terrain attributes were derived by digital terrain analysis from the 10 m DEM of the study area. A total of 37 terrain attributes were calculated and submitted to statistical feature selection. The Chi-square ranking indicated only 4 significant covariates among the terrain attributes (slope height

  17. Model for assessing the efficiency of biologic drugs in the treatment of moderate to severe psoriasis for one year in clinical practice in Spain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Puig, L; López-Ferrer, A; Vilarrasa, E; García, I; Fernández-del Olmo, R

    2016-01-01

    Most economic evaluations in the literature on the subject of biologic therapy for the treatment of psoriasis do not reflect normal clinical practice or consider the cost of patient management. The objective of the present study is to establish a model for assessing the efficiency of biologic therapies in the treatment of psoriasis taking into account the cost of managing treatment which, in routine clinical practice, depends on patient response. We developed a model based on a decision tree that incorporates the probability of treatment response or failure with adalimumab, etanercept, infliximab, and ustekinumab after 24 weeks of therapy (end of the induction phase). The probability in each case was calculated using data from a meta-analysis. The following direct health costs were taken into account: the cost of drugs and their administration in euro (2015). Our analysis was based on the cost of 12 months of treatment administered in a hospital setting. According to the proposed model, the mean cost per year by initial treatment strategy was lowest for patients who started treatment with ustekinumab, although the percentage cost difference between ustekinumab and infliximab or adalimumab was less than 3%. With a fixed budget of €1,000,000, the initial treatment option that would achieve success in the largest number of patients for one year would, according to this model, be ustekinumab (66 patients), followed by infliximab (n = 62), adalimumab (n = 59), and etanercept (n = 50). Sensitivity analysis confirmed the reliability of these results. However, considering the confidence intervals of the incremental efficacy observed in the meta-analysis, the differences found are probably not significant in all the possible binary comparisons. Likewise, possible differences in actual price structures, populations, and the strategies and therapeutic objectives of each hospital could all give rise to considerable variations in real life. The cost of managing treatment in

  18. Model Novaes for analysis of the productivity and efficiency of logistics operators in Brazil: a study of its applicability for the years 2005 and 2006

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emanuel Rodrigues Junqueira

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available The study presents a proposal to upgrade the production function to evaluate the productivity and efficiency of Brazilians logistics operators, which was developed by Novaes in his study in 2000. The goal was identify if and how the variables used continued to explain the behavior of productivity of these companies. To achieve that goal, tests were performed with data of years for 2005 and 2006, provided by the Revista Tecnologística, and used the same statistical techniques developed in the previous study, the multiple regression. The previous study intended to help the competitive advantage of logistics operators attentive to the problem, through the methodology of analysis of competitors and to customers of this service along the supply chain management, interested in identifying companies with greater efficiency. The results indicate that the model developed by Novaes is not valid for the current reality of these companies. Key-words: productivity function; logistic operators; analysis of competitors and suppliers.

  19. Multi-year downscaling application of two-way coupled WRF v3.4 and CMAQ v5.0.2 over east Asia for regional climate and air quality modeling: model evaluation and aerosol direct effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong, Chaopeng; Zhang, Qiang; Zhang, Yang; Tang, Youhua; Tong, Daniel; He, Kebin

    2017-06-01

    In this study, a regional coupled climate-chemistry modeling system using the dynamical downscaling technique was established by linking the global Community Earth System Model (CESM) and the regional two-way coupled Weather Research and Forecasting - Community Multi-scale Air Quality (WRF-CMAQ) model for the purpose of comprehensive assessments of regional climate change and air quality and their interactions within one modeling framework. The modeling system was applied over east Asia for a multi-year climatological application during 2006-2010, driven with CESM downscaling data under Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 (RCP4.5), along with a short-term air quality application in representative months in 2013 that was driven with a reanalysis dataset. A comprehensive model evaluation was conducted against observations from surface networks and satellite observations to assess the model's performance. This study presents the first application and evaluation of the two-way coupled WRF-CMAQ model for climatological simulations using the dynamical downscaling technique. The model was able to satisfactorily predict major meteorological variables. The improved statistical performance for the 2 m temperature (T2) in this study (with a mean bias of -0.6 °C) compared with the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) multi-models might be related to the use of the regional model WRF and the bias-correction technique applied for CESM downscaling. The model showed good ability to predict PM2. 5 in winter (with a normalized mean bias (NMB) of 6.4 % in 2013) and O3 in summer (with an NMB of 18.2 % in 2013) in terms of statistical performance and spatial distributions. Compared with global models that tend to underpredict PM2. 5 concentrations in China, WRF-CMAQ was able to capture the high PM2. 5 concentrations in urban areas. In general, the two-way coupled WRF-CMAQ model performed well for both climatological and air quality applications. The coupled

  20. Mathematical learning instruction and teacher motivation factors affecting science technology engineering and math (STEM) major choices in 4-year colleges and universities: Multilevel structural equation modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Ahlam

    2011-12-01

    Using the Educational Longitudinal Study of 2002/06, this study examined the effects of the selected mathematical learning and teacher motivation factors on graduates' science, technology, engineering, and math (STEM) related major choices in 4-year colleges and universities, as mediated by math performance and math self-efficacy. Using multilevel structural equation modeling, I analyzed: (1) the association between mathematical learning instruction factors (i.e., computer, individual, and lecture-based learning activities in mathematics) and students' STEM major choices in 4-year colleges and universities as mediated by math performance and math self-efficacy and (2) the association between school factor, teacher motivation and students' STEM major choices in 4-year colleges and universities via mediators of math performance and math self-efficacy. The results revealed that among the selected learning experience factors, computer-based learning activities in math classrooms yielded the most positive effects on math self-efficacy, which significantly predicted the increase in the proportion of students' STEM major choice as mediated by math self-efficacy. Further, when controlling for base-year math Item Response Theory (IRT) scores, a positive relationship between individual-based learning activities in math classrooms and the first follow-up math IRT scores emerged, which related to the high proportion of students' STEM major choices. The results also indicated that individual and lecture-based learning activities in math yielded positive effects on math self-efficacy, which related to STEM major choice. Concerning between-school levels, teacher motivation yielded positive effects on the first follow up math IRT score, when controlling for base year IRT score. The results from this study inform educators, parents, and policy makers on how mathematics instruction can improve student math performance and encourage more students to prepare for STEM careers. Students