Sample records for model validation results
-
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Ahmed E. Hassan
2006-01-24
Models have an inherent uncertainty. The difficulty in fully characterizing the subsurface environment makes uncertainty an integral component of groundwater flow and transport models, which dictates the need for continuous monitoring and improvement. Building and sustaining confidence in closure decisions and monitoring networks based on models of subsurface conditions require developing confidence in the models through an iterative process. The definition of model validation is postulated as a confidence building and long-term iterative process (Hassan, 2004a). Model validation should be viewed as a process not an end result. Following Hassan (2004b), an approach is proposed for the validation process of stochastic groundwater models. The approach is briefly summarized herein and detailed analyses of acceptance criteria for stochastic realizations and of using validation data to reduce input parameter uncertainty are presented and applied to two case studies. During the validation process for stochastic models, a question arises as to the sufficiency of the number of acceptable model realizations (in terms of conformity with validation data). Using a hierarchical approach to make this determination is proposed. This approach is based on computing five measures or metrics and following a decision tree to determine if a sufficient number of realizations attain satisfactory scores regarding how they represent the field data used for calibration (old) and used for validation (new). The first two of these measures are applied to hypothetical scenarios using the first case study and assuming field data consistent with the model or significantly different from the model results. In both cases it is shown how the two measures would lead to the appropriate decision about the model performance. Standard statistical tests are used to evaluate these measures with the results indicating they are appropriate measures for evaluating model realizations. The use of validation
-
Results from the Savannah River Laboratory model validation workshop
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Pepper, D.W.
1981-01-01
To evaluate existing and newly developed air pollution models used in DOE-funded laboratories, the Savannah River Laboratory sponsored a model validation workshop. The workshop used Kr-85 measurements and meteorology data obtained at SRL during 1975 to 1977. Individual laboratories used models to calculate daily, weekly, monthly or annual test periods. Cumulative integrated air concentrations were reported at each grid point and at each of the eight sampler locations
-
ExEP yield modeling tool and validation test results
Morgan, Rhonda; Turmon, Michael; Delacroix, Christian; Savransky, Dmitry; Garrett, Daniel; Lowrance, Patrick; Liu, Xiang Cate; Nunez, Paul
2017-09-01
EXOSIMS is an open-source simulation tool for parametric modeling of the detection yield and characterization of exoplanets. EXOSIMS has been adopted by the Exoplanet Exploration Programs Standards Definition and Evaluation Team (ExSDET) as a common mechanism for comparison of exoplanet mission concept studies. To ensure trustworthiness of the tool, we developed a validation test plan that leverages the Python-language unit-test framework, utilizes integration tests for selected module interactions, and performs end-to-end crossvalidation with other yield tools. This paper presents the test methods and results, with the physics-based tests such as photometry and integration time calculation treated in detail and the functional tests treated summarily. The test case utilized a 4m unobscured telescope with an idealized coronagraph and an exoplanet population from the IPAC radial velocity (RV) exoplanet catalog. The known RV planets were set at quadrature to allow deterministic validation of the calculation of physical parameters, such as working angle, photon counts and integration time. The observing keepout region was tested by generating plots and movies of the targets and the keepout zone over a year. Although the keepout integration test required the interpretation of a user, the test revealed problems in the L2 halo orbit and the parameterization of keepout applied to some solar system bodies, which the development team was able to address. The validation testing of EXOSIMS was performed iteratively with the developers of EXOSIMS and resulted in a more robust, stable, and trustworthy tool that the exoplanet community can use to simulate exoplanet direct-detection missions from probe class, to WFIRST, up to large mission concepts such as HabEx and LUVOIR.
-
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Napier, B.A.; Simpson, J.C.; Eslinger, P.W.; Ramsdell, J.V. Jr.; Thiede, M.E.; Walters, W.H.
1994-05-01
The Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction (HEDR) Project has developed a set of computer models for estimating the possible radiation doses that individuals may have received from past Hanford Site operations. This document describes the validation of these models. In the HEDR Project, the model validation exercise consisted of comparing computational model estimates with limited historical field measurements and experimental measurements that are independent of those used to develop the models. The results of any one test do not mean that a model is valid. Rather, the collection of tests together provide a level of confidence that the HEDR models are valid
-
Roll-up of validation results to a target application.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Hills, Richard Guy
2013-09-01
Suites of experiments are preformed over a validation hierarchy to test computational simulation models for complex applications. Experiments within the hierarchy can be performed at different conditions and configurations than those for an intended application, with each experiment testing only part of the physics relevant for the application. The purpose of the present work is to develop methodology to roll-up validation results to an application, and to assess the impact the validation hierarchy design has on the roll-up results. The roll-up is accomplished through the development of a meta-model that relates validation measurements throughout a hierarchy to the desired response quantities for the target application. The meta-model is developed using the computation simulation models for the experiments and the application. The meta-model approach is applied to a series of example transport problems that represent complete and incomplete coverage of the physics of the target application by the validation experiments.
-
Firstenberg, M S; Greenberg, N L; Smedira, N G; McCarthy, P M; Garcia, M J; Thomas, J D
2001-01-01
Inertial forces (Mdv/dt) are a significant component of transmitral flow, but cannot be measured with Doppler echo. We validated a method of estimating Mdv/dt. Ten patients had a dual sensor transmitral (TM) catheter placed during cardiac surgery. Doppler and 2D echo was performed while acquiring LA and LV pressures. Mdv/dt was determined from the Bernoulli equation using Doppler velocities and TM gradients. Results were compared with numerical modeling. TM gradients (range: 1.04-14.24 mmHg) consisted of 74.0 +/- 11.0% inertial forcers (range: 0.6-12.9 mmHg). Multivariate analysis predicted Mdv/dt = -4.171(S/D (RATIO)) + 0.063(LAvolume-max) + 5. Using this equation, a strong relationship was obtained for the clinical dataset (y=0.98x - 0.045, r=0.90) and the results of numerical modeling (y=0.96x - 0.16, r=0.84). TM gradients are mainly inertial and, as validated by modeling, can be estimated with echocardiography.
-
Model Validation Status Review
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
E.L. Hardin
2001-01-01
The primary objective for the Model Validation Status Review was to perform a one-time evaluation of model validation associated with the analysis/model reports (AMRs) containing model input to total-system performance assessment (TSPA) for the Yucca Mountain site recommendation (SR). This review was performed in response to Corrective Action Request BSC-01-C-01 (Clark 2001, Krisha 2001) pursuant to Quality Assurance review findings of an adverse trend in model validation deficiency. The review findings in this report provide the following information which defines the extent of model validation deficiency and the corrective action needed: (1) AMRs that contain or support models are identified, and conversely, for each model the supporting documentation is identified. (2) The use for each model is determined based on whether the output is used directly for TSPA-SR, or for screening (exclusion) of features, events, and processes (FEPs), and the nature of the model output. (3) Two approaches are used to evaluate the extent to which the validation for each model is compliant with AP-3.10Q (Analyses and Models). The approaches differ in regard to whether model validation is achieved within individual AMRs as originally intended, or whether model validation could be readily achieved by incorporating information from other sources. (4) Recommendations are presented for changes to the AMRs, and additional model development activities or data collection, that will remedy model validation review findings, in support of licensing activities. The Model Validation Status Review emphasized those AMRs that support TSPA-SR (CRWMS M and O 2000bl and 2000bm). A series of workshops and teleconferences was held to discuss and integrate the review findings. The review encompassed 125 AMRs (Table 1) plus certain other supporting documents and data needed to assess model validity. The AMRs were grouped in 21 model areas representing the modeling of processes affecting the natural and
-
Model Validation Status Review
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
E.L. Hardin
2001-11-28
The primary objective for the Model Validation Status Review was to perform a one-time evaluation of model validation associated with the analysis/model reports (AMRs) containing model input to total-system performance assessment (TSPA) for the Yucca Mountain site recommendation (SR). This review was performed in response to Corrective Action Request BSC-01-C-01 (Clark 2001, Krisha 2001) pursuant to Quality Assurance review findings of an adverse trend in model validation deficiency. The review findings in this report provide the following information which defines the extent of model validation deficiency and the corrective action needed: (1) AMRs that contain or support models are identified, and conversely, for each model the supporting documentation is identified. (2) The use for each model is determined based on whether the output is used directly for TSPA-SR, or for screening (exclusion) of features, events, and processes (FEPs), and the nature of the model output. (3) Two approaches are used to evaluate the extent to which the validation for each model is compliant with AP-3.10Q (Analyses and Models). The approaches differ in regard to whether model validation is achieved within individual AMRs as originally intended, or whether model validation could be readily achieved by incorporating information from other sources. (4) Recommendations are presented for changes to the AMRs, and additional model development activities or data collection, that will remedy model validation review findings, in support of licensing activities. The Model Validation Status Review emphasized those AMRs that support TSPA-SR (CRWMS M&O 2000bl and 2000bm). A series of workshops and teleconferences was held to discuss and integrate the review findings. The review encompassed 125 AMRs (Table 1) plus certain other supporting documents and data needed to assess model validity. The AMRs were grouped in 21 model areas representing the modeling of processes affecting the natural and
-
North, Matt; Petropoulos, George; Ireland, Gareth; Rendal, Daisy; Carlson, Toby
2015-04-01
With current predicted climate change, there is an increased requirement to gain knowledge on the terrestrial biosphere, for numerous agricultural, hydrological and meteorological applications. To this end, Soil Vegetation Atmospheric Transfer (SVAT) models are quickly becoming the preferred scientific tool to monitor, at fine temporal and spatial resolutions, detailed information on numerous parameters associated with Earth system interactions. Validation of any model is critical to assess its accuracy, generality and realism to distinctive ecosystems and subsequently acts as important step before its operational distribution. In this study, the SimSphere SVAT model has been validated to fifteen different sites of the FLUXNET network, where model performance was statistically evaluated by directly comparing the model predictions vs in situ data, for cloud free days with a high energy balance closure. Specific focus is given to the models ability to simulate parameters associated with the energy balance, namely Shortwave Incoming Solar Radiation (Rg), Net Radiation (Rnet), Latent Heat (LE), Sensible Heat (H), Air Temperature at 1.3m (Tair 1.3m) and Air temperature at 50m (Tair 50m). Comparisons were performed for a number distinctive ecosystem types and for 150 days in total using in-situ data from ground observational networks acquired from the year 2011 alone. Evaluation of the models' coherence to reality was evaluated on the basis of a series of statistical parameters including RMSD, R2, Scatter, Bias, MAE , NASH index, Slope and Intercept. Results showed good to very good agreement between predicted and observed datasets, particularly so for LE, H, Tair 1.3m and Tair 50m where mean error distribution values indicated excellent model performance. Due to the systematic underestimation, poorer simulation accuracies were exhibited for Rg and Rnet, yet all values reported are still analogous to other validatory studies of its kind. In overall, the model
-
Challenges of forest landscape modeling - simulating large landscapes and validating results
Hong S. He; Jian Yang; Stephen R. Shifley; Frank R. Thompson
2011-01-01
Over the last 20 years, we have seen a rapid development in the field of forest landscape modeling, fueled by both technological and theoretical advances. Two fundamental challenges have persisted since the inception of FLMs: (1) balancing realistic simulation of ecological processes at broad spatial and temporal scales with computing capacity, and (2) validating...
-
Model validation and calibration based on component functions of model output
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wu, Danqing; Lu, Zhenzhou; Wang, Yanping; Cheng, Lei
2015-01-01
The target in this work is to validate the component functions of model output between physical observation and computational model with the area metric. Based on the theory of high dimensional model representations (HDMR) of independent input variables, conditional expectations are component functions of model output, and the conditional expectations reflect partial information of model output. Therefore, the model validation of conditional expectations tells the discrepancy between the partial information of the computational model output and that of the observations. Then a calibration of the conditional expectations is carried out to reduce the value of model validation metric. After that, a recalculation of the model validation metric of model output is taken with the calibrated model parameters, and the result shows that a reduction of the discrepancy in the conditional expectations can help decrease the difference in model output. At last, several examples are employed to demonstrate the rationality and necessity of the methodology in case of both single validation site and multiple validation sites. - Highlights: • A validation metric of conditional expectations of model output is proposed. • HDRM explains the relationship of conditional expectations and model output. • An improved approach of parameter calibration updates the computational models. • Validation and calibration process are applied at single site and multiple sites. • Validation and calibration process show a superiority than existing methods
-
Large-scale Validation of AMIP II Land-surface Simulations: Preliminary Results for Ten Models
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Phillips, T J; Henderson-Sellers, A; Irannejad, P; McGuffie, K; Zhang, H
2005-12-01
This report summarizes initial findings of a large-scale validation of the land-surface simulations of ten atmospheric general circulation models that are entries in phase II of the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP II). This validation is conducted by AMIP Diagnostic Subproject 12 on Land-surface Processes and Parameterizations, which is focusing on putative relationships between the continental climate simulations and the associated models' land-surface schemes. The selected models typify the diversity of representations of land-surface climate that are currently implemented by the global modeling community. The current dearth of global-scale terrestrial observations makes exacting validation of AMIP II continental simulations impractical. Thus, selected land-surface processes of the models are compared with several alternative validation data sets, which include merged in-situ/satellite products, climate reanalyses, and off-line simulations of land-surface schemes that are driven by observed forcings. The aggregated spatio-temporal differences between each simulated process and a chosen reference data set then are quantified by means of root-mean-square error statistics; the differences among alternative validation data sets are similarly quantified as an estimate of the current observational uncertainty in the selected land-surface process. Examples of these metrics are displayed for land-surface air temperature, precipitation, and the latent and sensible heat fluxes. It is found that the simulations of surface air temperature, when aggregated over all land and seasons, agree most closely with the chosen reference data, while the simulations of precipitation agree least. In the latter case, there also is considerable inter-model scatter in the error statistics, with the reanalyses estimates of precipitation resembling the AMIP II simulations more than to the chosen reference data. In aggregate, the simulations of land-surface latent and
-
A broad view of model validation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Tsang, C.F.
1989-10-01
The safety assessment of a nuclear waste repository requires the use of models. Such models need to be validated to ensure, as much as possible, that they are a good representation of the actual processes occurring in the real system. In this paper we attempt to take a broad view by reviewing step by step the modeling process and bringing out the need to validating every step of this process. This model validation includes not only comparison of modeling results with data from selected experiments, but also evaluation of procedures for the construction of conceptual models and calculational models as well as methodologies for studying data and parameter correlation. The need for advancing basic scientific knowledge in related fields, for multiple assessment groups, and for presenting our modeling efforts in open literature to public scrutiny is also emphasized. 16 refs
-
Validation of ASTEC core degradation and containment models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kruse, Philipp; Brähler, Thimo; Koch, Marco K.
2014-01-01
Ruhr-Universitaet Bochum performed in a German funded project validation of in-vessel and containment models of the integral code ASTEC V2, jointly developed by IRSN (France) and GRS (Germany). In this paper selected results of this validation are presented. In the in-vessel part, the main point of interest was the validation of the code capability concerning cladding oxidation and hydrogen generation. The ASTEC calculations of QUENCH experiments QUENCH-03 and QUENCH-11 show satisfactory results, despite of some necessary adjustments in the input deck. Furthermore, the oxidation models based on the Cathcart–Pawel and Urbanic–Heidrick correlations are not suitable for higher temperatures while the ASTEC model BEST-FIT based on the Prater–Courtright approach at high temperature gives reliable enough results. One part of the containment model validation was the assessment of three hydrogen combustion models of ASTEC against the experiment BMC Ix9. The simulation results of these models differ from each other and therefore the quality of the simulations depends on the characteristic of each model. Accordingly, the CPA FRONT model, corresponding to the simplest necessary input parameters, provides the best agreement to the experimental data
-
Statistical Validation of Normal Tissue Complication Probability Models
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Xu Chengjian, E-mail: c.j.xu@umcg.nl [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Groningen, University Medical Center Groningen, Groningen (Netherlands); Schaaf, Arjen van der; Veld, Aart A. van' t; Langendijk, Johannes A. [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Groningen, University Medical Center Groningen, Groningen (Netherlands); Schilstra, Cornelis [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Groningen, University Medical Center Groningen, Groningen (Netherlands); Radiotherapy Institute Friesland, Leeuwarden (Netherlands)
2012-09-01
Purpose: To investigate the applicability and value of double cross-validation and permutation tests as established statistical approaches in the validation of normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) models. Methods and Materials: A penalized regression method, LASSO (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator), was used to build NTCP models for xerostomia after radiation therapy treatment of head-and-neck cancer. Model assessment was based on the likelihood function and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Results: Repeated double cross-validation showed the uncertainty and instability of the NTCP models and indicated that the statistical significance of model performance can be obtained by permutation testing. Conclusion: Repeated double cross-validation and permutation tests are recommended to validate NTCP models before clinical use.
-
Radionuclide migration in forest ecosystems - results of a model validation study
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Shaw, G.; Venter, A.; Avila, R.; Bergman, R.; Bulgakov, A.; Calmon, P.; Fesenko, S.; Frissel, M.; Goor, F.; Konoplev, A.; Linkov, I.; Mamikhin, S.; Moberg, L.; Orlov, A.; Rantavaara, A.; Spiridonov, S.; Thiry, Y.
2005-01-01
The primary objective of the IAEA's BIOMASS Forest Working Group (FWG) was to bring together experimental radioecologists and modellers to facilitate the exchange of information which could be used to improve our ability to understand and forecast radionuclide transfers within forests. This paper describes a blind model validation exercise which was conducted by the FWG to test nine models which members of the group had developed in response to the need to predict the fate of radiocaesium in forests in Europe after the Chernobyl accident. The outcomes and conclusions of this exercise are summarised. It was concluded that, as a group, the models are capable of providing an envelope of predictions which can be expected to enclose experimental data for radiocaesium contamination in forests over the time scale tested. However, the models are subject to varying degrees of conceptual uncertainty which gives rise to a very high degree of divergence between individual model predictions, particularly when forecasting edible mushroom contamination. Furthermore, the forecasting capability of the models over future decades currently remains untested
-
Sehnal, David; Svobodová Vařeková, Radka; Pravda, Lukáš; Ionescu, Crina-Maria; Geidl, Stanislav; Horský, Vladimír; Jaiswal, Deepti; Wimmerová, Michaela; Koča, Jaroslav
2015-01-01
Following the discovery of serious errors in the structure of biomacromolecules, structure validation has become a key topic of research, especially for ligands and non-standard residues. ValidatorDB (freely available at http://ncbr.muni.cz/ValidatorDB) offers a new step in this direction, in the form of a database of validation results for all ligands and non-standard residues from the Protein Data Bank (all molecules with seven or more heavy atoms). Model molecules from the wwPDB Chemical Component Dictionary are used as reference during validation. ValidatorDB covers the main aspects of validation of annotation, and additionally introduces several useful validation analyses. The most significant is the classification of chirality errors, allowing the user to distinguish between serious issues and minor inconsistencies. Other such analyses are able to report, for example, completely erroneous ligands, alternate conformations or complete identity with the model molecules. All results are systematically classified into categories, and statistical evaluations are performed. In addition to detailed validation reports for each molecule, ValidatorDB provides summaries of the validation results for the entire PDB, for sets of molecules sharing the same annotation (three-letter code) or the same PDB entry, and for user-defined selections of annotations or PDB entries. © The Author(s) 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Nucleic Acids Research.
-
Model validation: a systemic and systematic approach
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Sheng, G.; Elzas, M.S.; Cronhjort, B.T.
1993-01-01
The term 'validation' is used ubiquitously in association with the modelling activities of numerous disciplines including social, political natural, physical sciences, and engineering. There is however, a wide range of definitions which give rise to very different interpretations of what activities the process involves. Analyses of results from the present large international effort in modelling radioactive waste disposal systems illustrate the urgent need to develop a common approach to model validation. Some possible explanations are offered to account for the present state of affairs. The methodology developed treats model validation and code verification in a systematic fashion. In fact, this approach may be regarded as a comprehensive framework to assess the adequacy of any simulation study. (author)
-
ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model Version 2 - summary of validation results
Tachikawa, Tetushi; Kaku, Manabu; Iwasaki, Akira; Gesch, Dean B.; Oimoen, Michael J.; Zhang, Z.; Danielson, Jeffrey J.; Krieger, Tabatha; Curtis, Bill; Haase, Jeff; Abrams, Michael; Carabajal, C.; Meyer, Dave
2011-01-01
On June 29, 2009, NASA and the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) of Japan released a Global Digital Elevation Model (GDEM) to users worldwide at no charge as a contribution to the Global Earth Observing System of Systems (GEOSS). This “version 1” ASTER GDEM (GDEM1) was compiled from over 1.2 million scenebased DEMs covering land surfaces between 83°N and 83°S latitudes. A joint U.S.-Japan validation team assessed the accuracy of the GDEM1, augmented by a team of 20 cooperators. The GDEM1 was found to have an overall accuracy of around 20 meters at the 95% confidence level. The team also noted several artifacts associated with poor stereo coverage at high latitudes, cloud contamination, water masking issues and the stacking process used to produce the GDEM1 from individual scene-based DEMs (ASTER GDEM Validation Team, 2009). Two independent horizontal resolution studies estimated the effective spatial resolution of the GDEM1 to be on the order of 120 meters.
-
Validation of simulation models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Rehman, Muniza; Pedersen, Stig Andur
2012-01-01
In philosophy of science, the interest for computational models and simulations has increased heavily during the past decades. Different positions regarding the validity of models have emerged but the views have not succeeded in capturing the diversity of validation methods. The wide variety...
-
A proposed best practice model validation framework for banks
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Pieter J. (Riaan de Jongh
2017-06-01
Full Text Available Background: With the increasing use of complex quantitative models in applications throughout the financial world, model risk has become a major concern. The credit crisis of 2008–2009 provoked added concern about the use of models in finance. Measuring and managing model risk has subsequently come under scrutiny from regulators, supervisors, banks and other financial institutions. Regulatory guidance indicates that meticulous monitoring of all phases of model development and implementation is required to mitigate this risk. Considerable resources must be mobilised for this purpose. The exercise must embrace model development, assembly, implementation, validation and effective governance. Setting: Model validation practices are generally patchy, disparate and sometimes contradictory, and although the Basel Accord and some regulatory authorities have attempted to establish guiding principles, no definite set of global standards exists. Aim: Assessing the available literature for the best validation practices. Methods: This comprehensive literature study provided a background to the complexities of effective model management and focussed on model validation as a component of model risk management. Results: We propose a coherent ‘best practice’ framework for model validation. Scorecard tools are also presented to evaluate if the proposed best practice model validation framework has been adequately assembled and implemented. Conclusion: The proposed best practice model validation framework is designed to assist firms in the construction of an effective, robust and fully compliant model validation programme and comprises three principal elements: model validation governance, policy and process.
-
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Wiechowski, Wojciech Tomasz; Lykkegaard, Jan; Bak, Claus Leth
2007-01-01
In this paper two methods of validation of transmission network harmonic models are introduced. The methods were developed as a result of the work presented in [1]. The first method allows calculating the transfer harmonic impedance between two nodes of a network. Switching a linear, series network......, as for example a transmission line. Both methods require that harmonic measurements performed at two ends of the disconnected element are precisely synchronized....... are used for calculation of the transfer harmonic impedance between the nodes. The determined transfer harmonic impedance can be used to validate a computer model of the network. The second method is an extension of the fist one. It allows switching a series element that contains a shunt branch...
-
Pierie, Frank; van Someren, Christian; Benders, René M.J.; Bekkering, Jan; van Gemert, Wim; Moll, Henri C.
2016-01-01
Biogas produced through Anaerobic Digestion can be seen as a flexible and storable energy carrier. However, the environmental sustainability and efficiency of biogas production is not fully understood. Within this article the use, operation, structure, validation, and results of a model for the
-
Validating the passenger traffic model for Copenhagen
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Overgård, Christian Hansen; VUK, Goran
2006-01-01
The paper presents a comprehensive validation procedure for the passenger traffic model for Copenhagen based on external data from the Danish national travel survey and traffic counts. The model was validated for the years 2000 to 2004, with 2004 being of particular interest because the Copenhagen...... matched the observed traffic better than those of the transit assignment model. With respect to the metro forecasts, the model over-predicts metro passenger flows by 10% to 50%. The wide range of findings from the project resulted in two actions. First, a project was started in January 2005 to upgrade...
-
Test-driven verification/validation of model transformations
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
László LENGYEL; Hassan CHARAF
2015-01-01
Why is it important to verify/validate model transformations? The motivation is to improve the quality of the trans-formations, and therefore the quality of the generated software artifacts. Verified/validated model transformations make it possible to ensure certain properties of the generated software artifacts. In this way, verification/validation methods can guarantee different requirements stated by the actual domain against the generated/modified/optimized software products. For example, a verified/ validated model transformation can ensure the preservation of certain properties during the model-to-model transformation. This paper emphasizes the necessity of methods that make model transformation verified/validated, discusses the different scenarios of model transformation verification and validation, and introduces the principles of a novel test-driven method for verifying/ validating model transformations. We provide a solution that makes it possible to automatically generate test input models for model transformations. Furthermore, we collect and discuss the actual open issues in the field of verification/validation of model transformations.
-
Luo, Ma; Frisken, Sarah F.; Weis, Jared A.; Clements, Logan W.; Unadkat, Prashin; Thompson, Reid C.; Golby, Alexandra J.; Miga, Michael I.
2017-03-01
The quality of brain tumor resection surgery is dependent on the spatial agreement between preoperative image and intraoperative anatomy. However, brain shift compromises the aforementioned alignment. Currently, the clinical standard to monitor brain shift is intraoperative magnetic resonance (iMR). While iMR provides better understanding of brain shift, its cost and encumbrance is a consideration for medical centers. Hence, we are developing a model-based method that can be a complementary technology to address brain shift in standard resections, with resource-intensive cases as referrals for iMR facilities. Our strategy constructs a deformation `atlas' containing potential deformation solutions derived from a biomechanical model that account for variables such as cerebrospinal fluid drainage and mannitol effects. Volumetric deformation is estimated with an inverse approach that determines the optimal combinatory `atlas' solution fit to best match measured surface deformation. Accordingly, preoperative image is updated based on the computed deformation field. This study is the latest development to validate our methodology with iMR. Briefly, preoperative and intraoperative MR images of 2 patients were acquired. Homologous surface points were selected on preoperative and intraoperative scans as measurement of surface deformation and used to drive the inverse problem. To assess the model accuracy, subsurface shift of targets between preoperative and intraoperative states was measured and compared to model prediction. Considering subsurface shift above 3 mm, the proposed strategy provides an average shift correction of 59% across 2 cases. While further improvements in both the model and ability to validate with iMR are desired, the results reported are encouraging.
-
Analytical models approximating individual processes: a validation method.
Favier, C; Degallier, N; Menkès, C E
2010-12-01
Upscaling population models from fine to coarse resolutions, in space, time and/or level of description, allows the derivation of fast and tractable models based on a thorough knowledge of individual processes. The validity of such approximations is generally tested only on a limited range of parameter sets. A more general validation test, over a range of parameters, is proposed; this would estimate the error induced by the approximation, using the original model's stochastic variability as a reference. This method is illustrated by three examples taken from the field of epidemics transmitted by vectors that bite in a temporally cyclical pattern, that illustrate the use of the method: to estimate if an approximation over- or under-fits the original model; to invalidate an approximation; to rank possible approximations for their qualities. As a result, the application of the validation method to this field emphasizes the need to account for the vectors' biology in epidemic prediction models and to validate these against finer scale models. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
-
Cross-validation pitfalls when selecting and assessing regression and classification models.
Krstajic, Damjan; Buturovic, Ljubomir J; Leahy, David E; Thomas, Simon
2014-03-29
We address the problem of selecting and assessing classification and regression models using cross-validation. Current state-of-the-art methods can yield models with high variance, rendering them unsuitable for a number of practical applications including QSAR. In this paper we describe and evaluate best practices which improve reliability and increase confidence in selected models. A key operational component of the proposed methods is cloud computing which enables routine use of previously infeasible approaches. We describe in detail an algorithm for repeated grid-search V-fold cross-validation for parameter tuning in classification and regression, and we define a repeated nested cross-validation algorithm for model assessment. As regards variable selection and parameter tuning we define two algorithms (repeated grid-search cross-validation and double cross-validation), and provide arguments for using the repeated grid-search in the general case. We show results of our algorithms on seven QSAR datasets. The variation of the prediction performance, which is the result of choosing different splits of the dataset in V-fold cross-validation, needs to be taken into account when selecting and assessing classification and regression models. We demonstrate the importance of repeating cross-validation when selecting an optimal model, as well as the importance of repeating nested cross-validation when assessing a prediction error.
-
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Napier, B.A.; Gilbert, R.O.; Simpson, J.C.; Ramsdell, J.V. Jr.; Thiede, M.E.; Walters, W.H.
1993-06-01
The Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction (HEDR) Project has developed a set of computational ''tools'' for estimating the possible radiation dose that individuals may have received from past Hanford Site operations. This document describes the planned activities to ''validate'' these tools. In the sense of the HEDR Project, ''validation'' is a process carried out by comparing computational model predictions with field observations and experimental measurements that are independent of those used to develop the model
-
A discussion on validation of hydrogeological models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Carrera, J.; Mousavi, S.F.; Usunoff, E.J.; Sanchez-Vila, X.; Galarza, G.
1993-01-01
Groundwater flow and solute transport are often driven by heterogeneities that elude easy identification. It is also difficult to select and describe the physico-chemical processes controlling solute behaviour. As a result, definition of a conceptual model involves numerous assumptions both on the selection of processes and on the representation of their spatial variability. Validating a numerical model by comparing its predictions with actual measurements may not be sufficient for evaluating whether or not it provides a good representation of 'reality'. Predictions will be close to measurements, regardless of model validity, if these are taken from experiments that stress well-calibrated model modes. On the other hand, predictions will be far from measurements when model parameters are very uncertain, even if the model is indeed a very good representation of the real system. Hence, we contend that 'classical' validation of hydrogeological models is not possible. Rather, models should be viewed as theories about the real system. We propose to follow a rigorous modeling approach in which different sources of uncertainty are explicitly recognized. The application of one such approach is illustrated by modeling a laboratory uranium tracer test performed on fresh granite, which was used as Test Case 1b in INTRAVAL. (author)
-
Validation of models with multivariate output
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Rebba, Ramesh; Mahadevan, Sankaran
2006-01-01
This paper develops metrics for validating computational models with experimental data, considering uncertainties in both. A computational model may generate multiple response quantities and the validation experiment might yield corresponding measured values. Alternatively, a single response quantity may be predicted and observed at different spatial and temporal points. Model validation in such cases involves comparison of multiple correlated quantities. Multiple univariate comparisons may give conflicting inferences. Therefore, aggregate validation metrics are developed in this paper. Both classical and Bayesian hypothesis testing are investigated for this purpose, using multivariate analysis. Since, commonly used statistical significance tests are based on normality assumptions, appropriate transformations are investigated in the case of non-normal data. The methodology is implemented to validate an empirical model for energy dissipation in lap joints under dynamic loading
-
Studying Validity of Single-Fluid Model in Inertial Confinement Fusion
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gu Jian-Fa; Fan Zheng-Feng; Dai Zhen-Sheng; Ye Wen-Hua; Pei Wen-Bing; Zhu Shao-Ping
2014-01-01
The validity of single-fluid model in inertial confinement fusion simulations is studied by comparing the results of the multi- and single-fluid models. The multi-fluid model includes the effects of collision and interpenetration between fluid species. By simulating the collision of fluid species, steady-state shock propagation into the thin DT gas and expansion of hohlraum Au wall heated by lasers, the results show that the validity of single-fluid model is strongly dependent on the ratio of the characteristic length of the simulated system to the particle mean free path. When the characteristic length L is one order larger than the mean free path λ, the single-fluid model's results are found to be in good agreement with the multi-fluid model's simulations, and the modeling of single-fluid remains valid. If the value of L/λ is lower than 10, the interpenetration between fluid species is significant, and the single-fluid simulations show some unphysical results; while the multi-fluid model can describe well the interpenetration and mix phenomena, and give more reasonable results. (physics of gases, plasmas, and electric discharges)
-
Model Validation in Ontology Based Transformations
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jesús M. Almendros-Jiménez
2012-10-01
Full Text Available Model Driven Engineering (MDE is an emerging approach of software engineering. MDE emphasizes the construction of models from which the implementation should be derived by applying model transformations. The Ontology Definition Meta-model (ODM has been proposed as a profile for UML models of the Web Ontology Language (OWL. In this context, transformations of UML models can be mapped into ODM/OWL transformations. On the other hand, model validation is a crucial task in model transformation. Meta-modeling permits to give a syntactic structure to source and target models. However, semantic requirements have to be imposed on source and target models. A given transformation will be sound when source and target models fulfill the syntactic and semantic requirements. In this paper, we present an approach for model validation in ODM based transformations. Adopting a logic programming based transformational approach we will show how it is possible to transform and validate models. Properties to be validated range from structural and semantic requirements of models (pre and post conditions to properties of the transformation (invariants. The approach has been applied to a well-known example of model transformation: the Entity-Relationship (ER to Relational Model (RM transformation.
-
An independent verification and validation of the Future Theater Level Model conceptual model
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Hartley, D.S. III; Kruse, K.L.; Martellaro, A.J.; Packard, S.L.; Thomas, B. Jr.; Turley, V.K.
1994-08-01
This report describes the methodology and results of independent verification and validation performed on a combat model in its design stage. The combat model is the Future Theater Level Model (FTLM), under development by The Joint Staff/J-8. J-8 has undertaken its development to provide an analysis tool that addresses the uncertainties of combat more directly than previous models and yields more rapid study results. The methodology adopted for this verification and validation consisted of document analyses. Included were detailed examination of the FTLM design documents (at all stages of development), the FTLM Mission Needs Statement, and selected documentation for other theater level combat models. These documents were compared to assess the FTLM as to its design stage, its purpose as an analytical combat model, and its capabilities as specified in the Mission Needs Statement. The conceptual design passed those tests. The recommendations included specific modifications as well as a recommendation for continued development. The methodology is significant because independent verification and validation have not been previously reported as being performed on a combat model in its design stage. The results are significant because The Joint Staff/J-8 will be using the recommendations from this study in determining whether to proceed with develop of the model.
-
An approach to model validation and model-based prediction -- polyurethane foam case study.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Dowding, Kevin J.; Rutherford, Brian Milne
2003-07-01
Enhanced software methodology and improved computing hardware have advanced the state of simulation technology to a point where large physics-based codes can be a major contributor in many systems analyses. This shift toward the use of computational methods has brought with it new research challenges in a number of areas including characterization of uncertainty, model validation, and the analysis of computer output. It is these challenges that have motivated the work described in this report. Approaches to and methods for model validation and (model-based) prediction have been developed recently in the engineering, mathematics and statistical literatures. In this report we have provided a fairly detailed account of one approach to model validation and prediction applied to an analysis investigating thermal decomposition of polyurethane foam. A model simulates the evolution of the foam in a high temperature environment as it transforms from a solid to a gas phase. The available modeling and experimental results serve as data for a case study focusing our model validation and prediction developmental efforts on this specific thermal application. We discuss several elements of the ''philosophy'' behind the validation and prediction approach: (1) We view the validation process as an activity applying to the use of a specific computational model for a specific application. We do acknowledge, however, that an important part of the overall development of a computational simulation initiative is the feedback provided to model developers and analysts associated with the application. (2) We utilize information obtained for the calibration of model parameters to estimate the parameters and quantify uncertainty in the estimates. We rely, however, on validation data (or data from similar analyses) to measure the variability that contributes to the uncertainty in predictions for specific systems or units (unit-to-unit variability). (3) We perform statistical
-
Ground-water models: Validate or invalidate
Bredehoeft, J.D.; Konikow, Leonard F.
1993-01-01
The word validation has a clear meaning to both the scientific community and the general public. Within the scientific community the validation of scientific theory has been the subject of philosophical debate. The philosopher of science, Karl Popper, argued that scientific theory cannot be validated, only invalidated. Popper’s view is not the only opinion in this debate; however, many scientists today agree with Popper (including the authors). To the general public, proclaiming that a ground-water model is validated carries with it an aura of correctness that we do not believe many of us who model would claim. We can place all the caveats we wish, but the public has its own understanding of what the word implies. Using the word valid with respect to models misleads the public; verification carries with it similar connotations as far as the public is concerned. Our point is this: using the terms validation and verification are misleading, at best. These terms should be abandoned by the ground-water community.
-
Continuous validation of ASTEC containment models and regression testing
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Nowack, Holger; Reinke, Nils; Sonnenkalb, Martin
2014-01-01
The focus of the ASTEC (Accident Source Term Evaluation Code) development at GRS is primarily on the containment module CPA (Containment Part of ASTEC), whose modelling is to a large extent based on the GRS containment code COCOSYS (COntainment COde SYStem). Validation is usually understood as the approval of the modelling capabilities by calculations of appropriate experiments done by external users different from the code developers. During the development process of ASTEC CPA, bugs and unintended side effects may occur, which leads to changes in the results of the initially conducted validation. Due to the involvement of a considerable number of developers in the coding of ASTEC modules, validation of the code alone, even if executed repeatedly, is not sufficient. Therefore, a regression testing procedure has been implemented in order to ensure that the initially obtained validation results are still valid with succeeding code versions. Within the regression testing procedure, calculations of experiments and plant sequences are performed with the same input deck but applying two different code versions. For every test-case the up-to-date code version is compared to the preceding one on the basis of physical parameters deemed to be characteristic for the test-case under consideration. In the case of post-calculations of experiments also a comparison to experimental data is carried out. Three validation cases from the regression testing procedure are presented within this paper. The very good post-calculation of the HDR E11.1 experiment shows the high quality modelling of thermal-hydraulics in ASTEC CPA. Aerosol behaviour is validated on the BMC VANAM M3 experiment, and the results show also a very good agreement with experimental data. Finally, iodine behaviour is checked in the validation test-case of the THAI IOD-11 experiment. Within this test-case, the comparison of the ASTEC versions V2.0r1 and V2.0r2 shows how an error was detected by the regression testing
-
Barchiesi, Emilio; Ganzosch, Gregor; Liebold, Christian; Placidi, Luca; Grygoruk, Roman; Müller, Wolfgang H.
2018-01-01
Due to the latest advancements in 3D printing technology and rapid prototyping techniques, the production of materials with complex geometries has become more affordable than ever. Pantographic structures, because of their attractive features, both in dynamics and statics and both in elastic and inelastic deformation regimes, deserve to be thoroughly investigated with experimental and theoretical tools. Herein, experimental results relative to displacement-controlled large deformation shear loading tests of pantographic structures are reported. In particular, five differently sized samples are analyzed up to first rupture. Results show that the deformation behavior is strongly nonlinear, and the structures are capable of undergoing large elastic deformations without reaching complete failure. Finally, a cutting edge model is validated by means of these experimental results.
-
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Hasager, C B; Astrup, P; Barthelmie, R; Dellwik, E; Hoffmann Joergensen, B; Gylling Mortensen, N; Nielsen, M; Pryor, S; Rathmann, O
2002-05-01
A validation study has been performed in order to investigate the precision and accuracy of the satellite-derived ERS-2 SAR wind products in offshore regions. The overall project goal is to develop a method for utilizing the satellite wind speed maps for offshore wind resources, e.g. in future planning of offshore wind farms. The report describes the validation analysis in detail for three sites in Denmark, Italy and Egypt. The site in Norway is analyzed by the Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Centre (NERSC). Wind speed maps and wind direction maps from Earth Observation data recorded by the ERS-2 SAR satellite have been obtained from the NERSC. For the Danish site the wind speed and wind direction maps have been compared to in-situ observations from a met-mast at Horns Rev in the North Sea located 14 km offshore. The SAR wind speeds have been area-averaged by simple and advanced footprint modelling, ie. the upwind conditions to the meteorological mast are explicitly averaged in the SAR wind speed maps before comparison. The comparison results are very promising with a standard error of {+-} 0.61 m s{sup -1}, a bias {approx}2 m s{sup -1} and R{sup 2} {approx}0.88 between in-situ wind speed observations and SAR footprint averaged values at 10 m level. Wind speeds predicted by the local scale model LINCOM and the mesoscale model KAMM2 have been compared to the spatial variations in the SAR wind speed maps. The finding is a good correspondence between SAR observations and model results. Near the coast is an 800 m wide band in which the SAR wind speed observations have a strong negative bias. The bathymetry of Horns Rev combined with tidal currents give rise to bias in the SAR wind speed maps near areas of shallow, complex bottom topography in some cases. A total of 16 cases were analyzed for Horns Rev. For Maddalena in Italy five cases were analyzed. At the Italian site the SAR wind speed maps were compared to WAsP and KAMM2 model results. The WAsP model
-
A methodology for PSA model validation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Unwin, S.D.
1995-09-01
This document reports Phase 2 of work undertaken by Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC) in support of the Atomic Energy Control Board's Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) review. A methodology is presented for the systematic review and evaluation of a PSA model. These methods are intended to support consideration of the following question: To within the scope and depth of modeling resolution of a PSA study, is the resultant model a complete and accurate representation of the subject plant? This question was identified as a key PSA validation issue in SAIC's Phase 1 project. The validation methods are based on a model transformation process devised to enhance the transparency of the modeling assumptions. Through conversion to a 'success-oriented' framework, a closer correspondence to plant design and operational specifications is achieved. This can both enhance the scrutability of the model by plant personnel, and provide an alternative perspective on the model that may assist in the identification of deficiencies. The model transformation process is defined and applied to fault trees documented in the Darlington Probabilistic Safety Evaluation. A tentative real-time process is outlined for implementation and documentation of a PSA review based on the proposed methods. (author). 11 refs., 9 tabs., 30 refs
-
Refinement, Validation and Benchmarking of a Model for E-Government Service Quality
Magoutas, Babis; Mentzas, Gregoris
This paper presents the refinement and validation of a model for Quality of e-Government Services (QeGS). We built upon our previous work where a conceptualized model was identified and put focus on the confirmatory phase of the model development process, in order to come up with a valid and reliable QeGS model. The validated model, which was benchmarked with very positive results with similar models found in the literature, can be used for measuring the QeGS in a reliable and valid manner. This will form the basis for a continuous quality improvement process, unleashing the full potential of e-government services for both citizens and public administrations.
-
Validation Results for LEWICE 3.0
Wright, William B.
2005-01-01
A research project is underway at NASA Glenn to produce computer software that can accurately predict ice growth under any meteorological conditions for any aircraft surface. This report will present results from version 3.0 of this software, which is called LEWICE. This version differs from previous releases in that it incorporates additional thermal analysis capabilities, a pneumatic boot model, interfaces to computational fluid dynamics (CFD) flow solvers and has an empirical model for the supercooled large droplet (SLD) regime. An extensive comparison of the results in a quantifiable manner against the database of ice shapes and collection efficiency that have been generated in the NASA Glenn Icing Research Tunnel (IRT) has also been performed. The complete set of data used for this comparison will eventually be available in a contractor report. This paper will show the differences in collection efficiency between LEWICE 3.0 and experimental data. Due to the large amount of validation data available, a separate report is planned for ice shape comparison. This report will first describe the LEWICE 3.0 model for water collection. A semi-empirical approach was used to incorporate first order physical effects of large droplet phenomena into icing software. Comparisons are then made to every single element two-dimensional case in the water collection database. Each condition was run using the following five assumptions: 1) potential flow, no splashing; 2) potential flow, no splashing with 21 bin drop size distributions and a lift correction (angle of attack adjustment); 3) potential flow, with splashing; 4) Navier-Stokes, no splashing; and 5) Navier-Stokes, with splashing. Quantitative comparisons are shown for impingement limit, maximum water catch, and total collection efficiency. The results show that the predicted results are within the accuracy limits of the experimental data for the majority of cases.
-
Model performance analysis and model validation in logistic regression
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Rosa Arboretti Giancristofaro
2007-10-01
Full Text Available In this paper a new model validation procedure for a logistic regression model is presented. At first, we illustrate a brief review of different techniques of model validation. Next, we define a number of properties required for a model to be considered "good", and a number of quantitative performance measures. Lastly, we describe a methodology for the assessment of the performance of a given model by using an example taken from a management study.
-
Validation of spectral gas radiation models under oxyfuel conditions
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Becher, Johann Valentin
2013-05-15
Combustion of hydrocarbon fuels with pure oxygen results in a different flue gas composition than combustion with air. Standard computational-fluid-dynamics (CFD) spectral gas radiation models for air combustion are therefore out of their validity range in oxyfuel combustion. This thesis provides a common spectral basis for the validation of new spectral models. A literature review about fundamental gas radiation theory, spectral modeling and experimental methods provides the reader with a basic understanding of the topic. In the first results section, this thesis validates detailed spectral models with high resolution spectral measurements in a gas cell with the aim of recommending one model as the best benchmark model. In the second results section, spectral measurements from a turbulent natural gas flame - as an example for a technical combustion process - are compared to simulated spectra based on measured gas atmospheres. The third results section compares simplified spectral models to the benchmark model recommended in the first results section and gives a ranking of the proposed models based on their accuracy. A concluding section gives recommendations for the selection and further development of simplified spectral radiation models. Gas cell transmissivity spectra in the spectral range of 2.4 - 5.4 {mu}m of water vapor and carbon dioxide in the temperature range from 727 C to 1500 C and at different concentrations were compared in the first results section at a nominal resolution of 32 cm{sup -1} to line-by-line models from different databases, two statistical-narrow-band models and the exponential-wide-band model. The two statistical-narrow-band models EM2C and RADCAL showed good agreement with a maximal band transmissivity deviation of 3 %. The exponential-wide-band model showed a deviation of 6 %. The new line-by-line database HITEMP2010 had the lowest band transmissivity deviation of 2.2% and was therefore recommended as a reference model for the
-
Assessment model validity document - HYDRASTAR. A stochastic continuum program for groundwater flow
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Gylling, B. [Kemakta Konsult AB, Stockholm (Sweden); Eriksson, Lars [Equa Simulation AB, Sundbyberg (Sweden)
2001-12-01
The prevailing document addresses validation of the stochastic continuum model HYDRASTAR designed for Monte Carlo simulations of groundwater flow in fractured rocks. Here, validation is defined as a process to demonstrate that a model concept is fit for its purpose. Preferably, the validation is carried out by comparison of model predictions with independent field observations and experimental measurements. In addition, other sources can also be used to confirm that the model concept gives acceptable results. One method is to compare results with the ones achieved using other model concepts for the same set of input data. Another method is to compare model results with analytical solutions. The model concept HYDRASTAR has been used in several studies including performance assessments of hypothetical repositories for spent nuclear fuel. In the performance assessments, the main tasks for HYDRASTAR have been to calculate groundwater travel time distributions, repository flux distributions, path lines and their exit locations. The results have then been used by other model concepts to calculate the near field release and far field transport. The aim and framework for the validation process includes describing the applicability of the model concept for its purpose in order to build confidence in the concept. Preferably, this is made by comparisons of simulation results with the corresponding field experiments or field measurements. Here, two comparisons with experimental results are reported. In both cases the agreement was reasonably fair. In the broader and more general context of the validation process, HYDRASTAR results have been compared with other models and analytical solutions. Commonly, the approximation calculations agree well with the medians of model ensemble results. Additional indications that HYDRASTAR is suitable for its purpose were obtained from the comparisons with results from other model concepts. Several verification studies have been made for
-
Validation and comparison of dispersion models of RTARC DSS
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Duran, J.; Pospisil, M.
2004-01-01
RTARC DSS (Real Time Accident Release Consequences - Decision Support System) is a computer code developed at the VUJE Trnava, Inc. (Stubna, M. et al, 1993). The code calculations include atmospheric transport and diffusion, dose assessment, evaluation and displaying of the affected zones, evaluation of the early health effects, concentration and dose rate time dependence in the selected sites etc. The simulation of the protective measures (sheltering, iodine administration) is involved. The aim of this paper is to present the process of validation of the RTARC dispersion models. RTARC includes models for calculations of release for very short (Method Monte Carlo - MEMOC), short (Gaussian Straight-Line Model) and long distances (Puff Trajectory Model - PTM). Validation of the code RTARC was performed using the results of comparisons and experiments summarized in the Table 1.: 1. Experiments and comparisons in the process of validation of the system RTARC - experiments or comparison - distance - model. Wind tunnel experiments (Universitaet der Bundeswehr, Muenchen) - Area of NPP - Method Monte Carlo. INEL (Idaho National Engineering Laboratory) - short/medium - Gaussian model and multi tracer atmospheric experiment - distances - PTM. Model Validation Kit - short distances - Gaussian model. STEP II.b 'Realistic Case Studies' - long distances - PTM. ENSEMBLE comparison - long distances - PTM (orig.)
-
Geochemistry Model Validation Report: Material Degradation and Release Model
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
H. Stockman
2001-09-28
The purpose of this Analysis and Modeling Report (AMR) is to validate the Material Degradation and Release (MDR) model that predicts degradation and release of radionuclides from a degrading waste package (WP) in the potential monitored geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. This AMR is prepared according to ''Technical Work Plan for: Waste Package Design Description for LA'' (Ref. 17). The intended use of the MDR model is to estimate the long-term geochemical behavior of waste packages (WPs) containing U. S . Department of Energy (DOE) Spent Nuclear Fuel (SNF) codisposed with High Level Waste (HLW) glass, commercial SNF, and Immobilized Plutonium Ceramic (Pu-ceramic) codisposed with HLW glass. The model is intended to predict (1) the extent to which criticality control material, such as gadolinium (Gd), will remain in the WP after corrosion of the initial WP, (2) the extent to which fissile Pu and uranium (U) will be carried out of the degraded WP by infiltrating water, and (3) the chemical composition and amounts of minerals and other solids left in the WP. The results of the model are intended for use in criticality calculations. The scope of the model validation report is to (1) describe the MDR model, and (2) compare the modeling results with experimental studies. A test case based on a degrading Pu-ceramic WP is provided to help explain the model. This model does not directly feed the assessment of system performance. The output from this model is used by several other models, such as the configuration generator, criticality, and criticality consequence models, prior to the evaluation of system performance. This document has been prepared according to AP-3.10Q, ''Analyses and Models'' (Ref. 2), and prepared in accordance with the technical work plan (Ref. 17).
-
Geochemistry Model Validation Report: Material Degradation and Release Model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Stockman, H.
2001-01-01
The purpose of this Analysis and Modeling Report (AMR) is to validate the Material Degradation and Release (MDR) model that predicts degradation and release of radionuclides from a degrading waste package (WP) in the potential monitored geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. This AMR is prepared according to ''Technical Work Plan for: Waste Package Design Description for LA'' (Ref. 17). The intended use of the MDR model is to estimate the long-term geochemical behavior of waste packages (WPs) containing U. S . Department of Energy (DOE) Spent Nuclear Fuel (SNF) codisposed with High Level Waste (HLW) glass, commercial SNF, and Immobilized Plutonium Ceramic (Pu-ceramic) codisposed with HLW glass. The model is intended to predict (1) the extent to which criticality control material, such as gadolinium (Gd), will remain in the WP after corrosion of the initial WP, (2) the extent to which fissile Pu and uranium (U) will be carried out of the degraded WP by infiltrating water, and (3) the chemical composition and amounts of minerals and other solids left in the WP. The results of the model are intended for use in criticality calculations. The scope of the model validation report is to (1) describe the MDR model, and (2) compare the modeling results with experimental studies. A test case based on a degrading Pu-ceramic WP is provided to help explain the model. This model does not directly feed the assessment of system performance. The output from this model is used by several other models, such as the configuration generator, criticality, and criticality consequence models, prior to the evaluation of system performance. This document has been prepared according to AP-3.10Q, ''Analyses and Models'' (Ref. 2), and prepared in accordance with the technical work plan (Ref. 17)
-
Progress in Geant4 Electromagnetic Physics Modelling and Validation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Apostolakis, J; Burkhardt, H; Ivanchenko, V N; Asai, M; Bagulya, A; Grichine, V; Brown, J M C; Chikuma, N; Cortes-Giraldo, M A; Elles, S; Jacquemier, J; Guatelli, S; Incerti, S; Kadri, O; Maire, M; Urban, L; Pandola, L; Sawkey, D; Toshito, T; Yamashita, T
2015-01-01
In this work we report on recent improvements in the electromagnetic (EM) physics models of Geant4 and new validations of EM physics. Improvements have been made in models of the photoelectric effect, Compton scattering, gamma conversion to electron and muon pairs, fluctuations of energy loss, multiple scattering, synchrotron radiation, and high energy positron annihilation. The results of these developments are included in the new Geant4 version 10.1 and in patches to previous versions 9.6 and 10.0 that are planned to be used for production for run-2 at LHC. The Geant4 validation suite for EM physics has been extended and new validation results are shown in this work. In particular, the effect of gamma-nuclear interactions on EM shower shape at LHC energies is discussed. (paper)
-
van Soest, Johan; Meldolesi, Elisa; van Stiphout, Ruud; Gatta, Roberto; Damiani, Andrea; Valentini, Vincenzo; Lambin, Philippe; Dekker, Andre
2017-09-01
Multiple models have been developed to predict pathologic complete response (pCR) in locally advanced rectal cancer patients. Unfortunately, validation of these models normally omit the implications of cohort differences on prediction model performance. In this work, we will perform a prospective validation of three pCR models, including information whether this validation will target transferability or reproducibility (cohort differences) of the given models. We applied a novel methodology, the cohort differences model, to predict whether a patient belongs to the training or to the validation cohort. If the cohort differences model performs well, it would suggest a large difference in cohort characteristics meaning we would validate the transferability of the model rather than reproducibility. We tested our method in a prospective validation of three existing models for pCR prediction in 154 patients. Our results showed a large difference between training and validation cohort for one of the three tested models [Area under the Receiver Operating Curve (AUC) cohort differences model: 0.85], signaling the validation leans towards transferability. Two out of three models had a lower AUC for validation (0.66 and 0.58), one model showed a higher AUC in the validation cohort (0.70). We have successfully applied a new methodology in the validation of three prediction models, which allows us to indicate if a validation targeted transferability (large differences between training/validation cohort) or reproducibility (small cohort differences). © 2017 American Association of Physicists in Medicine.
-
Establishing model credibility involves more than validation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kirchner, T.
1991-01-01
One widely used definition of validation is that the quantitative test of the performance of a model through the comparison of model predictions to independent sets of observations from the system being simulated. The ability to show that the model predictions compare well with observations is often thought to be the most rigorous test that can be used to establish credibility for a model in the scientific community. However, such tests are only part of the process used to establish credibility, and in some cases may be either unnecessary or misleading. Naylor and Finger extended the concept of validation to include the establishment of validity for the postulates embodied in the model and the test of assumptions used to select postulates for the model. Validity of postulates is established through concurrence by experts in the field of study that the mathematical or conceptual model contains the structural components and mathematical relationships necessary to adequately represent the system with respect to the goals for the model. This extended definition of validation provides for consideration of the structure of the model, not just its performance, in establishing credibility. Evaluation of a simulation model should establish the correctness of the code and the efficacy of the model within its domain of applicability. (24 refs., 6 figs.)
-
Towards policy relevant environmental modeling: contextual validity and pragmatic models
Miles, Scott B.
2000-01-01
"What makes for a good model?" In various forms, this question is a question that, undoubtedly, many people, businesses, and institutions ponder with regards to their particular domain of modeling. One particular domain that is wrestling with this question is the multidisciplinary field of environmental modeling. Examples of environmental models range from models of contaminated ground water flow to the economic impact of natural disasters, such as earthquakes. One of the distinguishing claims of the field is the relevancy of environmental modeling to policy and environment-related decision-making in general. A pervasive view by both scientists and decision-makers is that a "good" model is one that is an accurate predictor. Thus, determining whether a model is "accurate" or "correct" is done by comparing model output to empirical observations. The expected outcome of this process, usually referred to as "validation" or "ground truthing," is a stamp on the model in question of "valid" or "not valid" that serves to indicate whether or not the model will be reliable before it is put into service in a decision-making context. In this paper, I begin by elaborating on the prevailing view of model validation and why this view must change. Drawing from concepts coming out of the studies of science and technology, I go on to propose a contextual view of validity that can overcome the problems associated with "ground truthing" models as an indicator of model goodness. The problem of how we talk about and determine model validity has much to do about how we perceive the utility of environmental models. In the remainder of the paper, I argue that we should adopt ideas of pragmatism in judging what makes for a good model and, in turn, developing good models. From such a perspective of model goodness, good environmental models should facilitate communication, convey—not bury or "eliminate"—uncertainties, and, thus, afford the active building of consensus decisions, instead
-
Paleoclimate validation of a numerical climate model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Schelling, F.J.; Church, H.W.; Zak, B.D.; Thompson, S.L.
1994-01-01
An analysis planned to validate regional climate model results for a past climate state at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, against paleoclimate evidence for the period is described. This analysis, which will use the GENESIS model of global climate nested with the RegCM2 regional climate model, is part of a larger study for DOE's Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project that is evaluating the impacts of long term future climate change on performance of the potential high level nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain. The planned analysis and anticipated results are presented
-
The validation of evacuation simulation models through the analysis of behavioural uncertainty
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lovreglio, Ruggiero; Ronchi, Enrico; Borri, Dino
2014-01-01
Both experimental and simulation data on fire evacuation are influenced by a component of uncertainty caused by the impact of the unexplained variance in human behaviour, namely behavioural uncertainty (BU). Evacuation model validation studies should include the study of this type of uncertainty during the comparison of experiments and simulation results. An evacuation model validation procedure is introduced in this paper to study the impact of BU. This methodology is presented through a case study for the comparison between repeated experimental data and simulation results produced by FDS+Evac, an evacuation model for the simulation of human behaviour in fire, which makes use of distribution laws. - Highlights: • Validation of evacuation models is investigated. • Quantitative evaluation of behavioural uncertainty is performed. • A validation procedure is presented through an evacuation case study
-
IN-DRIFT MICROBIAL COMMUNITIES MODEL VALIDATION CALCULATIONS
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
D.M. Jolley
2001-12-18
The objective and scope of this calculation is to create the appropriate parameter input for MING 1.0 (CSCI 30018 V1.0, CRWMS M&O 1998b) that will allow the testing of the results from the MING software code with both scientific measurements of microbial populations at the site and laboratory and with natural analogs to the site. This set of calculations provides results that will be used in model validation for the ''In-Drift Microbial Communities'' model (CRWMS M&O 2000) which is part of the Engineered Barrier System Department (EBS) process modeling effort that eventually will feed future Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) models. This calculation is being produced to replace MING model validation output that is effected by the supersession of DTN M09909SPAMINGl.003 using its replacement DTN M00106SPAIDMO 1.034 so that the calculations currently found in the ''In-Drift Microbial Communities'' AMR (CRWMS M&O 2000) will be brought up to date. This set of calculations replaces the calculations contained in sections 6.7.2, 6.7.3 and Attachment I of CRWMS M&O (2000) As all of these calculations are created explicitly for model validation, the data qualification status of all inputs can be considered corroborative in accordance with AP-3.15Q. This work activity has been evaluated in accordance with the AP-2.21 procedure, ''Quality Determinations and Planning for Scientific, Engineering, and Regulatory Compliance Activities'', and is subject to QA controls (BSC 2001). The calculation is developed in accordance with the AP-3.12 procedure, Calculations, and prepared in accordance with the ''Technical Work Plan For EBS Department Modeling FY 01 Work Activities'' (BSC 200 1) which includes controls for the management of electronic data.
-
In-Drift Microbial Communities Model Validation Calculations
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
D. M. Jolley
2001-09-24
The objective and scope of this calculation is to create the appropriate parameter input for MING 1.0 (CSCI 30018 V1.0, CRWMS M&O 1998b) that will allow the testing of the results from the MING software code with both scientific measurements of microbial populations at the site and laboratory and with natural analogs to the site. This set of calculations provides results that will be used in model validation for the ''In-Drift Microbial Communities'' model (CRWMS M&O 2000) which is part of the Engineered Barrier System Department (EBS) process modeling effort that eventually will feed future Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) models. This calculation is being produced to replace MING model validation output that is effected by the supersession of DTN MO9909SPAMING1.003 using its replacement DTN MO0106SPAIDM01.034 so that the calculations currently found in the ''In-Drift Microbial Communities'' AMR (CRWMS M&O 2000) will be brought up to date. This set of calculations replaces the calculations contained in sections 6.7.2, 6.7.3 and Attachment I of CRWMS M&O (2000) As all of these calculations are created explicitly for model validation, the data qualification status of all inputs can be considered corroborative in accordance with AP-3.15Q. This work activity has been evaluated in accordance with the AP-2.21 procedure, ''Quality Determinations and Planning for Scientific, Engineering, and Regulatory Compliance Activities'', and is subject to QA controls (BSC 2001). The calculation is developed in accordance with the AP-3.12 procedure, Calculations, and prepared in accordance with the ''Technical Work Plan For EBS Department Modeling FY 01 Work Activities'' (BSC 2001) which includes controls for the management of electronic data.
-
In-Drift Microbial Communities Model Validation Calculation
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
D. M. Jolley
2001-10-31
The objective and scope of this calculation is to create the appropriate parameter input for MING 1.0 (CSCI 30018 V1.0, CRWMS M&O 1998b) that will allow the testing of the results from the MING software code with both scientific measurements of microbial populations at the site and laboratory and with natural analogs to the site. This set of calculations provides results that will be used in model validation for the ''In-Drift Microbial Communities'' model (CRWMS M&O 2000) which is part of the Engineered Barrier System Department (EBS) process modeling effort that eventually will feed future Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) models. This calculation is being produced to replace MING model validation output that is effected by the supersession of DTN MO9909SPAMING1.003 using its replacement DTN MO0106SPAIDM01.034 so that the calculations currently found in the ''In-Drift Microbial Communities'' AMR (CRWMS M&O 2000) will be brought up to date. This set of calculations replaces the calculations contained in sections 6.7.2, 6.7.3 and Attachment I of CRWMS M&O (2000) As all of these calculations are created explicitly for model validation, the data qualification status of all inputs can be considered corroborative in accordance with AP-3.15Q. This work activity has been evaluated in accordance with the AP-2.21 procedure, ''Quality Determinations and Planning for Scientific, Engineering, and Regulatory Compliance Activities'', and is subject to QA controls (BSC 2001). The calculation is developed in accordance with the AP-3.12 procedure, Calculations, and prepared in accordance with the ''Technical Work Plan For EBS Department Modeling FY 01 Work Activities'' (BSC 2001) which includes controls for the management of electronic data.
-
In-Drift Microbial Communities Model Validation Calculations
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Jolley, D.M.
2001-01-01
The objective and scope of this calculation is to create the appropriate parameter input for MING 1.0 (CSCI 30018 V1.0, CRWMS MandO 1998b) that will allow the testing of the results from the MING software code with both scientific measurements of microbial populations at the site and laboratory and with natural analogs to the site. This set of calculations provides results that will be used in model validation for the ''In-Drift Microbial Communities'' model (CRWMS MandO 2000) which is part of the Engineered Barrier System Department (EBS) process modeling effort that eventually will feed future Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) models. This calculation is being produced to replace MING model validation output that is effected by the supersession of DTN MO9909SPAMING1.003 using its replacement DTN MO0106SPAIDM01.034 so that the calculations currently found in the ''In-Drift Microbial Communities'' AMR (CRWMS MandO 2000) will be brought up to date. This set of calculations replaces the calculations contained in sections 6.7.2, 6.7.3 and Attachment I of CRWMS MandO (2000) As all of these calculations are created explicitly for model validation, the data qualification status of all inputs can be considered corroborative in accordance with AP-3.15Q. This work activity has been evaluated in accordance with the AP-2.21 procedure, ''Quality Determinations and Planning for Scientific, Engineering, and Regulatory Compliance Activities'', and is subject to QA controls (BSC 2001). The calculation is developed in accordance with the AP-3.12 procedure, Calculations, and prepared in accordance with the ''Technical Work Plan For EBS Department Modeling FY 01 Work Activities'' (BSC 2001) which includes controls for the management of electronic data
-
IN-DRIFT MICROBIAL COMMUNITIES MODEL VALIDATION CALCULATIONS
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
D.M. Jolley
2001-01-01
The objective and scope of this calculation is to create the appropriate parameter input for MING 1.0 (CSCI 30018 V1.0, CRWMS M andO 1998b) that will allow the testing of the results from the MING software code with both scientific measurements of microbial populations at the site and laboratory and with natural analogs to the site. This set of calculations provides results that will be used in model validation for the ''In-Drift Microbial Communities'' model (CRWMS M andO 2000) which is part of the Engineered Barrier System Department (EBS) process modeling effort that eventually will feed future Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) models. This calculation is being produced to replace MING model validation output that is effected by the supersession of DTN M09909SPAMINGl.003 using its replacement DTN M00106SPAIDMO 1.034 so that the calculations currently found in the ''In-Drift Microbial Communities'' AMR (CRWMS M andO 2000) will be brought up to date. This set of calculations replaces the calculations contained in sections 6.7.2, 6.7.3 and Attachment I of CRWMS M andO (2000) As all of these calculations are created explicitly for model validation, the data qualification status of all inputs can be considered corroborative in accordance with AP-3.15Q. This work activity has been evaluated in accordance with the AP-2.21 procedure, ''Quality Determinations and Planning for Scientific, Engineering, and Regulatory Compliance Activities'', and is subject to QA controls (BSC 2001). The calculation is developed in accordance with the AP-3.12 procedure, Calculations, and prepared in accordance with the ''Technical Work Plan For EBS Department Modeling FY 01 Work Activities'' (BSC 200 1) which includes controls for the management of electronic data
-
A Mathematical Model for Reactions During Top-Blowing in the AOD Process: Validation and Results
Visuri, Ville-Valtteri; Järvinen, Mika; Kärnä, Aki; Sulasalmi, Petri; Heikkinen, Eetu-Pekka; Kupari, Pentti; Fabritius, Timo
2017-06-01
In earlier work, a fundamental mathematical model was proposed for side-blowing operation in the argon oxygen decarburization (AOD) process. In the preceding part "Derivation of the Model," a new mathematical model was proposed for reactions during top-blowing in the AOD process. In this model it was assumed that reactions occur simultaneously at the surface of the cavity caused by the gas jet and at the surface of the metal droplets ejected from the metal bath. This paper presents validation and preliminary results with twelve industrial heats. In the studied heats, the last combined-blowing stage was altered so that oxygen was introduced from the top lance only. Four heats were conducted using an oxygen-nitrogen mixture (1:1), while eight heats were conducted with pure oxygen. Simultaneously, nitrogen or argon gas was blown via tuyères in order to provide mixing that is comparable to regular practice. The measured carbon content varied from 0.4 to 0.5 wt pct before the studied stage to 0.1 to 0.2 wt pct after the studied stage. The results suggest that the model is capable of predicting changes in metal bath composition and temperature with a reasonably high degree of accuracy. The calculations indicate that the top slag may supply oxygen for decarburization during top-blowing. Furthermore, it is postulated that the metal droplets generated by the shear stress of top-blowing create a large mass exchange area, which plays an important role in enabling the high decarburization rates observed during top-blowing in the AOD process. The overall rate of decarburization attributable to top-blowing in the last combined-blowing stage was found to be limited by the mass transfer of dissolved carbon.
-
Statistical validation of normal tissue complication probability models.
Xu, Cheng-Jian; van der Schaaf, Arjen; Van't Veld, Aart A; Langendijk, Johannes A; Schilstra, Cornelis
2012-09-01
To investigate the applicability and value of double cross-validation and permutation tests as established statistical approaches in the validation of normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) models. A penalized regression method, LASSO (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator), was used to build NTCP models for xerostomia after radiation therapy treatment of head-and-neck cancer. Model assessment was based on the likelihood function and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Repeated double cross-validation showed the uncertainty and instability of the NTCP models and indicated that the statistical significance of model performance can be obtained by permutation testing. Repeated double cross-validation and permutation tests are recommended to validate NTCP models before clinical use. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
-
Validation process of simulation model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
San Isidro, M. J.
1998-01-01
It is presented a methodology on empirical validation about any detailed simulation model. This king of validation it is always related with an experimental case. The empirical validation has a residual sense, because the conclusions are based on comparisons between simulated outputs and experimental measurements. This methodology will guide us to detect the fails of the simulation model. Furthermore, it can be used a guide in the design of posterior experiments. Three steps can be well differentiated: Sensitivity analysis. It can be made with a DSA, differential sensitivity analysis, and with a MCSA, Monte-Carlo sensitivity analysis. Looking the optimal domains of the input parameters. It has been developed a procedure based on the Monte-Carlo methods and Cluster techniques, to find the optimal domains of these parameters. Residual analysis. This analysis has been made on the time domain and on the frequency domain, it has been used the correlation analysis and spectral analysis. As application of this methodology, it is presented the validation carried out on a thermal simulation model on buildings, Esp., studying the behavior of building components on a Test Cell of LECE of CIEMAT. (Author) 17 refs
-
Assessing Discriminative Performance at External Validation of Clinical Prediction Models.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Daan Nieboer
Full Text Available External validation studies are essential to study the generalizability of prediction models. Recently a permutation test, focusing on discrimination as quantified by the c-statistic, was proposed to judge whether a prediction model is transportable to a new setting. We aimed to evaluate this test and compare it to previously proposed procedures to judge any changes in c-statistic from development to external validation setting.We compared the use of the permutation test to the use of benchmark values of the c-statistic following from a previously proposed framework to judge transportability of a prediction model. In a simulation study we developed a prediction model with logistic regression on a development set and validated them in the validation set. We concentrated on two scenarios: 1 the case-mix was more heterogeneous and predictor effects were weaker in the validation set compared to the development set, and 2 the case-mix was less heterogeneous in the validation set and predictor effects were identical in the validation and development set. Furthermore we illustrated the methods in a case study using 15 datasets of patients suffering from traumatic brain injury.The permutation test indicated that the validation and development set were homogenous in scenario 1 (in almost all simulated samples and heterogeneous in scenario 2 (in 17%-39% of simulated samples. Previously proposed benchmark values of the c-statistic and the standard deviation of the linear predictors correctly pointed at the more heterogeneous case-mix in scenario 1 and the less heterogeneous case-mix in scenario 2.The recently proposed permutation test may provide misleading results when externally validating prediction models in the presence of case-mix differences between the development and validation population. To correctly interpret the c-statistic found at external validation it is crucial to disentangle case-mix differences from incorrect regression coefficients.
-
Cross-validation of an employee safety climate model in Malaysia.
Bahari, Siti Fatimah; Clarke, Sharon
2013-06-01
Whilst substantial research has investigated the nature of safety climate, and its importance as a leading indicator of organisational safety, much of this research has been conducted with Western industrial samples. The current study focuses on the cross-validation of a safety climate model in the non-Western industrial context of Malaysian manufacturing. The first-order factorial validity of Cheyne et al.'s (1998) [Cheyne, A., Cox, S., Oliver, A., Tomas, J.M., 1998. Modelling safety climate in the prediction of levels of safety activity. Work and Stress, 12(3), 255-271] model was tested, using confirmatory factor analysis, in a Malaysian sample. Results showed that the model fit indices were below accepted levels, indicating that the original Cheyne et al. (1998) safety climate model was not supported. An alternative three-factor model was developed using exploratory factor analysis. Although these findings are not consistent with previously reported cross-validation studies, we argue that previous studies have focused on validation across Western samples, and that the current study demonstrates the need to take account of cultural factors in the development of safety climate models intended for use in non-Western contexts. The results have important implications for the transferability of existing safety climate models across cultures (for example, in global organisations) and highlight the need for future research to examine cross-cultural issues in relation to safety climate. Copyright © 2013 National Safety Council and Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
-
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Kutluay, Emir
2013-02-01
In this thesis a validation methodology to be used in the assessment of the vehicle dynamics simulation models is presented. Simulation of vehicle dynamics is used to estimate the dynamic responses of existing or proposed vehicles and has a wide array of applications in the development of vehicle technologies. Although simulation environments, measurement tools and mathematical theories on vehicle dynamics are well established, the methodical link between the experimental test data and validity analysis of the simulation model is still lacking. The developed validation paradigm has a top-down approach to the problem. It is ascertained that vehicle dynamics simulation models can only be validated using test maneuvers although they are aimed for real world maneuvers. Test maneuvers are determined according to the requirements of the real event at the start of the model development project and data handling techniques, validation metrics and criteria are declared for each of the selected maneuvers. If the simulation results satisfy these criteria, then the simulation is deemed ''not invalid''. If the simulation model fails to meet the criteria, the model is deemed invalid, and model iteration should be performed. The results are analyzed to determine if the results indicate a modeling error or a modeling inadequacy; and if a conditional validity in terms of system variables can be defined. Three test cases are used to demonstrate the application of the methodology. The developed methodology successfully identified the shortcomings of the tested simulation model, and defined the limits of application. The tested simulation model is found to be acceptable but valid only in a certain dynamical range. Several insights for the deficiencies of the model are reported in the analysis but the iteration step of the methodology is not demonstrated. Utilizing the proposed methodology will help to achieve more time and cost efficient simulation projects with
-
Statistical Validation of Engineering and Scientific Models: Background
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hills, Richard G.; Trucano, Timothy G.
1999-01-01
A tutorial is presented discussing the basic issues associated with propagation of uncertainty analysis and statistical validation of engineering and scientific models. The propagation of uncertainty tutorial illustrates the use of the sensitivity method and the Monte Carlo method to evaluate the uncertainty in predictions for linear and nonlinear models. Four example applications are presented; a linear model, a model for the behavior of a damped spring-mass system, a transient thermal conduction model, and a nonlinear transient convective-diffusive model based on Burger's equation. Correlated and uncorrelated model input parameters are considered. The model validation tutorial builds on the material presented in the propagation of uncertainty tutoriaI and uses the damp spring-mass system as the example application. The validation tutorial illustrates several concepts associated with the application of statistical inference to test model predictions against experimental observations. Several validation methods are presented including error band based, multivariate, sum of squares of residuals, and optimization methods. After completion of the tutorial, a survey of statistical model validation literature is presented and recommendations for future work are made
-
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Nair, S.; Darley, P.J.; Shaer, J.
1989-03-01
The results of a fallout measurement programme which was carried out in the environs of Berkeley Nuclear Laboratory in the United Kingdom following the Chernobyl reactor accident in April 1986 are presented in this report. The programme was aimed at establishing a time-dependent data base of concentrations of Chernobyl fallout radionuclides in selected agricultural products. Results were obtained for milk, grass, silage, soil and wheat over an eighteen month period from May 1986. It is intended to use the data to validate the CEGB's dynamic foodchain model, which is incorporated in the FOODWEB module of the NECTAR environmental code. (author)
-
Predicting the ungauged basin: Model validation and realism assessment
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Tim evan Emmerik
2015-10-01
Full Text Available The hydrological decade on Predictions in Ungauged Basins (PUB led to many new insights in model development, calibration strategies, data acquisition and uncertainty analysis. Due to a limited amount of published studies on genuinely ungauged basins, model validation and realism assessment of model outcome has not been discussed to a great extent. With this paper we aim to contribute to the discussion on how one can determine the value and validity of a hydrological model developed for an ungauged basin. As in many cases no local, or even regional, data are available, alternative methods should be applied. Using a PUB case study in a genuinely ungauged basin in southern Cambodia, we give several examples of how one can use different types of soft data to improve model design, calibrate and validate the model, and assess the realism of the model output. A rainfall-runoff model was coupled to an irrigation reservoir, allowing the use of additional and unconventional data. The model was mainly forced with remote sensing data, and local knowledge was used to constrain the parameters. Model realism assessment was done using data from surveys. This resulted in a successful reconstruction of the reservoir dynamics, and revealed the different hydrological characteristics of the two topographical classes. This paper does not present a generic approach that can be transferred to other ungauged catchments, but it aims to show how clever model design and alternative data acquisition can result in a valuable hydrological model for an ungauged catchment.
-
Contact Modelling in Resistance Welding, Part II: Experimental Validation
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Song, Quanfeng; Zhang, Wenqi; Bay, Niels
2006-01-01
Contact algorithms in resistance welding presented in the previous paper are experimentally validated in the present paper. In order to verify the mechanical contact algorithm, two types of experiments, i.e. sandwich upsetting of circular, cylindrical specimens and compression tests of discs...... with a solid ring projection towards a flat ring, are carried out at room temperature. The complete algorithm, involving not only the mechanical model but also the thermal and electrical models, is validated by projection welding experiments. The experimental results are in satisfactory agreement...
-
Validation od computational model ALDERSON/EGSnrc for chest radiography
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Muniz, Bianca C.; Santos, André L. dos; Menezes, Claudio J.M.
2017-01-01
To perform dose studies in situations of exposure to radiation, without exposing individuals, the numerical dosimetry uses Computational Exposure Models (ECM). Composed essentially by a radioactive source simulator algorithm, a voxel phantom representing the human anatomy and a Monte Carlo code, the ECMs must be validated to determine the reliability of the physical array representation. The objective of this work is to validate the ALDERSON / EGSnrc MCE by through comparisons between the experimental measurements obtained with the ionization chamber and virtual simulations using Monte Carlo Method to determine the ratio of the input and output radiation dose. Preliminary results of these comparisons showed that the ECM reproduced the results of the experimental measurements performed with the physical phantom with a relative error of less than 10%, validating the use of this model for simulations of chest radiographs and estimates of radiation doses in tissues in the irradiated structures
-
Model Validation Using Coordinate Distance with Performance Sensitivity
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jiann-Shiun Lew
2008-01-01
Full Text Available This paper presents an innovative approach to model validation for a structure with significant parameter variations. Model uncertainty of the structural dynamics is quantified with the use of a singular value decomposition technique to extract the principal components of parameter change, and an interval model is generated to represent the system with parameter uncertainty. The coordinate vector, corresponding to the identified principal directions, of the validation system is computed. The coordinate distance between the validation system and the identified interval model is used as a metric for model validation. A beam structure with an attached subsystem, which has significant parameter uncertainty, is used to demonstrate the proposed approach.
-
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Noble Mark
2006-05-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background The purpose of this paper is two-fold. The first objective is to validate the assumptions behind a stochastic model developed earlier by these authors to describe oligodendrocyte generation in cell culture. The second is to generate time-lapse data that may help biomathematicians to build stochastic models of cell proliferation and differentiation under other experimental scenarios. Results Using time-lapse video recording it is possible to follow the individual evolutions of different cells within each clone. This experimental technique is very laborious and cannot replace model-based quantitative inference from clonal data. However, it is unrivalled in validating the structure of a stochastic model intended to describe cell proliferation and differentiation at the clonal level. In this paper, such data are reported and analyzed for oligodendrocyte precursor cells cultured in vitro. Conclusion The results strongly support the validity of the most basic assumptions underpinning the previously proposed model of oligodendrocyte development in cell culture. However, there are some discrepancies; the most important is that the contribution of progenitor cell death to cell kinetics in this experimental system has been underestimated.
-
Some considerations for validation of repository performance assessment models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Eisenberg, N.
1991-01-01
Validation is an important aspect of the regulatory uses of performance assessment. A substantial body of literature exists indicating the manner in which validation of models is usually pursued. Because performance models for a nuclear waste repository cannot be tested over the long time periods for which the model must make predictions, the usual avenue for model validation is precluded. Further impediments to model validation include a lack of fundamental scientific theory to describe important aspects of repository performance and an inability to easily deduce the complex, intricate structures characteristic of a natural system. A successful strategy for validation must attempt to resolve these difficulties in a direct fashion. Although some procedural aspects will be important, the main reliance of validation should be on scientific substance and logical rigor. The level of validation needed will be mandated, in part, by the uses to which these models are put, rather than by the ideal of validation of a scientific theory. Because of the importance of the validation of performance assessment models, the NRC staff has engaged in a program of research and international cooperation to seek progress in this important area. 2 figs., 16 refs
-
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ognjenović Slobodan
2017-01-01
Full Text Available Worldwide practice recommends validation of the HDM models with some other software that can be used for comparison of the forecasting results. The program package MATLAB is used in this case, as it enables for modelling of all the HDM models. A statistic validation of the results of the forecasts concerning the condition of the pavements in HDM with the on-field measuring results was also performed. This paper shall present the results of the validation of the coefficients of calibration of the deterioration models in HDM 4 on the Macedonian highways.
-
SDG and qualitative trend based model multiple scale validation
Gao, Dong; Xu, Xin; Yin, Jianjin; Zhang, Hongyu; Zhang, Beike
2017-09-01
Verification, Validation and Accreditation (VV&A) is key technology of simulation and modelling. For the traditional model validation methods, the completeness is weak; it is carried out in one scale; it depends on human experience. The SDG (Signed Directed Graph) and qualitative trend based multiple scale validation is proposed. First the SDG model is built and qualitative trends are added to the model. And then complete testing scenarios are produced by positive inference. The multiple scale validation is carried out by comparing the testing scenarios with outputs of simulation model in different scales. Finally, the effectiveness is proved by carrying out validation for a reactor model.
-
Systematic validation of non-equilibrium thermochemical models using Bayesian inference
Miki, Kenji
2015-10-01
© 2015 Elsevier Inc. The validation process proposed by Babuška et al. [1] is applied to thermochemical models describing post-shock flow conditions. In this validation approach, experimental data is involved only in the calibration of the models, and the decision process is based on quantities of interest (QoIs) predicted on scenarios that are not necessarily amenable experimentally. Moreover, uncertainties present in the experimental data, as well as those resulting from an incomplete physical model description, are propagated to the QoIs. We investigate four commonly used thermochemical models: a one-temperature model (which assumes thermal equilibrium among all inner modes), and two-temperature models developed by Macheret et al. [2], Marrone and Treanor [3], and Park [4]. Up to 16 uncertain parameters are estimated using Bayesian updating based on the latest absolute volumetric radiance data collected at the Electric Arc Shock Tube (EAST) installed inside the NASA Ames Research Center. Following the solution of the inverse problems, the forward problems are solved in order to predict the radiative heat flux, QoI, and examine the validity of these models. Our results show that all four models are invalid, but for different reasons: the one-temperature model simply fails to reproduce the data while the two-temperature models exhibit unacceptably large uncertainties in the QoI predictions.
-
Validating EHR clinical models using ontology patterns.
Martínez-Costa, Catalina; Schulz, Stefan
2017-12-01
Clinical models are artefacts that specify how information is structured in electronic health records (EHRs). However, the makeup of clinical models is not guided by any formal constraint beyond a semantically vague information model. We address this gap by advocating ontology design patterns as a mechanism that makes the semantics of clinical models explicit. This paper demonstrates how ontology design patterns can validate existing clinical models using SHACL. Based on the Clinical Information Modelling Initiative (CIMI), we show how ontology patterns detect both modeling and terminology binding errors in CIMI models. SHACL, a W3C constraint language for the validation of RDF graphs, builds on the concept of "Shape", a description of data in terms of expected cardinalities, datatypes and other restrictions. SHACL, as opposed to OWL, subscribes to the Closed World Assumption (CWA) and is therefore more suitable for the validation of clinical models. We have demonstrated the feasibility of the approach by manually describing the correspondences between six CIMI clinical models represented in RDF and two SHACL ontology design patterns. Using a Java-based SHACL implementation, we found at least eleven modeling and binding errors within these CIMI models. This demonstrates the usefulness of ontology design patterns not only as a modeling tool but also as a tool for validation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
-
Gap Conductance model Validation in the TASS/SMR-S code using MARS code
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ahn, Sang Jun; Yang, Soo Hyung; Chung, Young Jong; Lee, Won Jae
2010-01-01
Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI) has been developing the TASS/SMR-S (Transient and Setpoint Simulation/Small and Medium Reactor) code, which is a thermal hydraulic code for the safety analysis of the advanced integral reactor. An appropriate work to validate the applicability of the thermal hydraulic models within the code should be demanded. Among the models, the gap conductance model which is describes the thermal gap conductivity between fuel and cladding was validated through the comparison with MARS code. The validation of the gap conductance model was performed by evaluating the variation of the gap temperature and gap width as the changed with the power fraction. In this paper, a brief description of the gap conductance model in the TASS/SMR-S code is presented. In addition, calculated results to validate the gap conductance model are demonstrated by comparing with the results of the MARS code with the test case
-
Polarographic validation of chemical speciation models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Duffield, J.R.; Jarratt, J.A.
2001-01-01
It is well established that the chemical speciation of an element in a given matrix, or system of matrices, is of fundamental importance in controlling the transport behaviour of the element. Therefore, to accurately understand and predict the transport of elements and compounds in the environment it is a requirement that both the identities and concentrations of trace element physico-chemical forms can be ascertained. These twin requirements present the analytical scientist with considerable challenges given the labile equilibria, the range of time scales (from nanoseconds to years) and the range of concentrations (ultra-trace to macro) that may be involved. As a result of this analytical variability, chemical equilibrium modelling has become recognised as an important predictive tool in chemical speciation analysis. However, this technique requires firm underpinning by the use of complementary experimental techniques for the validation of the predictions made. The work reported here has been undertaken with the primary aim of investigating possible methodologies that can be used for the validation of chemical speciation models. However, in approaching this aim, direct chemical speciation analyses have been made in their own right. Results will be reported and analysed for the iron(II)/iron(III)-citrate proton system (pH 2 to 10; total [Fe] = 3 mmol dm -3 ; total [citrate 3- ] 10 mmol dm -3 ) in which equilibrium constants have been determined using glass electrode potentiometry, speciation is predicted using the PHREEQE computer code, and validation of predictions is achieved by determination of iron complexation and redox state with associated concentrations. (authors)
-
Tracer travel time and model validation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Tsang, Chin-Fu.
1988-01-01
The performance assessment of a nuclear waste repository demands much more in comparison to the safety evaluation of any civil constructions such as dams, or the resource evaluation of a petroleum or geothermal reservoir. It involves the estimation of low probability (low concentration) of radionuclide transport extrapolated 1000's of years into the future. Thus models used to make these estimates need to be carefully validated. A number of recent efforts have been devoted to the study of this problem. Some general comments on model validation were given by Tsang. The present paper discusses some issues of validation in regards to radionuclide transport. 5 refs
-
PEMFC modeling and experimental validation
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Vargas, J.V.C. [Federal University of Parana (UFPR), Curitiba, PR (Brazil). Dept. of Mechanical Engineering], E-mail: jvargas@demec.ufpr.br; Ordonez, J.C.; Martins, L.S. [Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL (United States). Center for Advanced Power Systems], Emails: ordonez@caps.fsu.edu, martins@caps.fsu.edu
2009-07-01
In this paper, a simplified and comprehensive PEMFC mathematical model introduced in previous studies is experimentally validated. Numerical results are obtained for an existing set of commercial unit PEM fuel cells. The model accounts for pressure drops in the gas channels, and for temperature gradients with respect to space in the flow direction, that are investigated by direct infrared imaging, showing that even at low current operation such gradients are present in fuel cell operation, and therefore should be considered by a PEMFC model, since large coolant flow rates are limited due to induced high pressure drops in the cooling channels. The computed polarization and power curves are directly compared to the experimentally measured ones with good qualitative and quantitative agreement. The combination of accuracy and low computational time allow for the future utilization of the model as a reliable tool for PEMFC simulation, control, design and optimization purposes. (author)
-
Validated TRNSYS Model for Solar Assisted Space Heating System
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Abdalla, Nedal
2014-01-01
The present study involves a validated TRNSYS model for solar assisted space heating system as applied to a residential building in Jordan using new detailed radiation models of the TRNSYS 17.1 and geometric building model Trnsys3d for the Google SketchUp 3D drawing program. The annual heating load for a building (Solar House) which is located at the Royal ScientiFIc Society (RS5) in Jordan is estimated under climatological conditions of Amman. The aim of this Paper is to compare measured thermal performance of the Solar House with that modeled using TRNSYS. The results showed that the annual measured space heating load for the building was 6,188 kWh while the heati.ng load for the modeled building was 6,391 kWh. Moreover, the measured solar fraction for the solar system was 50% while the modeled solar fraction was 55%. A comparison of modeled and measured data resulted in percentage mean absolute errors for solar energy for space heating, auxiliary heating and solar fraction of 13%, 7% and 10%, respectively. The validated model will be useful for long-term performance simulation under different weather and operating conditions.(author)
-
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Schoellkopf, Jacques P. [Advanced Subsea do Brasil Ltda., Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)
2012-07-01
The PRESAL 36 JIP is a project for the development of a powerful Ocean Current Model of 1/36 of a degree resolution, nested in an existing Global Ocean global Model, Mercator PSY4 (1/12-a-degree resolution ), with tide corrections, improved bathymetry accuracy and high frequency atmospheric forcing (every 3 hours). The simulation outputs will be the 3 dimensional structure of the velocity fields (u,v,w) at 50 vertical levels over the water column, including geostrophic, Ekman and tidal currents, together with Temperature, Salinity and sea surface height at a sub-mesoscale spatial resolution. Simulations will run in hindcast, nowcast and forecast modes, with a temporal resolution of 3 hours . This Ocean current model will allow to perform detailed statistical studies on various areas using conditions analysed using hindcast mode, short term operational condition prediction for various surface and sub sea operations using realtime and Forecast modes. The paper presents a publication of significant results of the project, in term of pre-sal zoomed model implementation, and high resolution model validation. It demonstrate the capability to properly describe ocean current phenomenon at beyond mesoscale frontier. This project demonstrate the feasibility of obtaining accurate information for engineering studies and operational conditions, based on a 'zoom technique' starting from global ocean models. (author)
-
Validation of a multi-objective, predictive urban traffic model
Wilmink, I.R.; Haak, P. van den; Woldeab, Z.; Vreeswijk, J.
2013-01-01
This paper describes the results of the verification and validation of the ecoStrategic Model, which was developed, implemented and tested in the eCoMove project. The model uses real-time and historical traffic information to determine the current, predicted and desired state of traffic in a
-
Validation of models in an imaging infrared simulation
CSIR Research Space (South Africa)
Willers, C
2007-10-01
Full Text Available threeprocessesfortransformingtheinformationbetweentheentities. Reality/ Problem Entity Conceptual Model Computerized Model Model Validation ModelVerification Model Qualification Computer Implementation Analysisand Modelling Simulationand Experimentation “Substantiationthata....C.Refsgaard ,ModellingGuidelines-terminology andguidingprinciples, AdvancesinWaterResources, Vol27,No1,January2004,?pp.71-82(12),Elsevier. et.al. [5]N.Oreskes,et.al.,Verification,Validation,andConfirmationof NumericalModelsintheEarthSciences,Science,Vol263, Number...
-
Validation and calibration of structural models that combine information from multiple sources.
Dahabreh, Issa J; Wong, John B; Trikalinos, Thomas A
2017-02-01
Mathematical models that attempt to capture structural relationships between their components and combine information from multiple sources are increasingly used in medicine. Areas covered: We provide an overview of methods for model validation and calibration and survey studies comparing alternative approaches. Expert commentary: Model validation entails a confrontation of models with data, background knowledge, and other models, and can inform judgments about model credibility. Calibration involves selecting parameter values to improve the agreement of model outputs with data. When the goal of modeling is quantitative inference on the effects of interventions or forecasting, calibration can be viewed as estimation. This view clarifies issues related to parameter identifiability and facilitates formal model validation and the examination of consistency among different sources of information. In contrast, when the goal of modeling is the generation of qualitative insights about the modeled phenomenon, calibration is a rather informal process for selecting inputs that result in model behavior that roughly reproduces select aspects of the modeled phenomenon and cannot be equated to an estimation procedure. Current empirical research on validation and calibration methods consists primarily of methodological appraisals or case-studies of alternative techniques and cannot address the numerous complex and multifaceted methodological decisions that modelers must make. Further research is needed on different approaches for developing and validating complex models that combine evidence from multiple sources.
-
Zhang, Yaning; Xu, Fei; Li, Bingxi; Kim, Yong-Song; Zhao, Wenke; Xie, Gongnan; Fu, Zhongbin
2018-04-01
This study aims to validate the three-phase heat and mass transfer model developed in the first part (Three phase heat and mass transfer model for unsaturated soil freezing process: Part 1 - model development). Experimental results from studies and experiments were used for the validation. The results showed that the correlation coefficients for the simulated and experimental water contents at different soil depths were between 0.83 and 0.92. The correlation coefficients for the simulated and experimental liquid water contents at different soil temperatures were between 0.95 and 0.99. With these high accuracies, the developed model can be well used to predict the water contents at different soil depths and temperatures.
-
Validation of a Wave-Body Interaction Model by Experimental Tests
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Ferri, Francesco; Kramer, Morten; Pecher, Arthur
2013-01-01
Within the wave energy field, numerical simulation has recently acquired a worldwide consent as being a useful tool, besides physical model testing. The main goal of this work is the validation of a numerical model by experimental results. The numerical model is based on a linear wave-body intera...
-
Validation of Slosh Modeling Approach Using STAR-CCM+
Benson, David J.; Ng, Wanyi
2018-01-01
Without an adequate understanding of propellant slosh, the spacecraft attitude control system may be inadequate to control the spacecraft or there may be an unexpected loss of science observation time due to higher slosh settling times. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) is used to model propellant slosh. STAR-CCM+ is a commercially available CFD code. This paper seeks to validate the CFD modeling approach via a comparison between STAR-CCM+ liquid slosh modeling results and experimental, empirically, and analytically derived results. The geometries examined are a bare right cylinder tank and a right cylinder with a single ring baffle.
-
System Advisor Model: Flat Plate Photovoltaic Performance Modeling Validation Report
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Freeman, Janine [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Whitmore, Jonathan [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Kaffine, Leah [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Blair, Nate [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Dobos, Aron P. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
2013-12-01
The System Advisor Model (SAM) is a free software tool that performs detailed analysis of both system performance and system financing for a variety of renewable energy technologies. This report provides detailed validation of the SAM flat plate photovoltaic performance model by comparing SAM-modeled PV system generation data to actual measured production data for nine PV systems ranging from 75 kW to greater than 25 MW in size. The results show strong agreement between SAM predictions and field data, with annualized prediction error below 3% for all fixed tilt cases and below 8% for all one axis tracked cases. The analysis concludes that snow cover and system outages are the primary sources of disagreement, and other deviations resulting from seasonal biases in the irradiation models and one axis tracking issues are discussed in detail.
-
Lagrangian Stochastic Dispersion Model IMS Model Suite and its Validation against Experimental Data
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bartok, J.
2010-01-01
The dissertation presents IMS Lagrangian Dispersion Model, which is a 'new generation' Slovak dispersion model of long-range transport, developed by MicroStep-MIS. It solves trajectory equation for a vast number of Lagrangian 'particles' and stochastic equation that simulates the effects of turbulence. Model contains simulation of radioactive decay (full decay chains of more than 300 nuclides), and dry and wet deposition. Model was integrated into IMS Model Suite, a system in which several models and modules can run and cooperate, e.g. LAM model WRF preparing fine resolution meteorological data for dispersion. The main theme of the work is validation of dispersion model against large scale international campaigns CAPTEX and ETEX, which are two of the largest tracer experiments. Validation addressed treatment of missing data, data interpolation into comparable temporal and spatial representation. The best model results were observed for ETEX I, standard results for CAPTEXes and worst results for ETEX II, known in modelling community for its meteorological conditions that can be hardly resolved by models. The IMS Lagrangian Dispersion Model was identified as capable long range dispersion model for slowly- or nonreacting chemicals and radioactive matter. Influence of input data on simulation quality is discussed within the work. Additional modules were prepared according to praxis requirement: a) Recalculation of concentrations of radioactive pollutant into effective doses form inhalation, immersion in the plume and deposition. b) Dispersion of mineral dust was added and tested in desert locality, where wind and soil moisture were firstly analysed and forecast by WRF. The result was qualitatively verified in case study against satellite observations. (author)
-
Validating a perceptual distraction model in a personal two-zone sound system
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Rämö, Jussi; Christensen, Lasse; Bech, Søren
2017-01-01
This paper focuses on validating a perceptual distraction model, which aims to predict user’s perceived distraction caused by audio-on-audio interference, e.g., two competing audio sources within the same listening space. Originally, the distraction model was trained with music-on-music stimuli...... using a simple loudspeaker setup, consisting of only two loudspeakers, one for the target sound source and the other for the interfering sound source. Recently, the model was successfully validated in a complex personal sound-zone system with speech-on-music stimuli. Second round of validations were...... conducted by physically altering the sound-zone system and running a set of new listening experiments utilizing two sound zones within the sound-zone system. Thus, validating the model using a different sound-zone system with both speech-on-music and music-on-speech stimuli sets. Preliminary results show...
-
Validation of the newborn larynx modeling with aerodynamical experimental data.
Nicollas, R; Giordano, J; Garrel, R; Medale, M; Caminat, P; Giovanni, A; Ouaknine, M; Triglia, J M
2009-06-01
Many authors have studied adult's larynx modelization, but the mechanisms of newborn's voice production have very rarely been investigated. After validating a numerical model with acoustic data, studies were performed on larynges of human fetuses in order to validate this model with aerodynamical experiments. Anatomical measurements were performed and a simplified numerical model was built using Fluent((R)) with the vocal folds in phonatory position. The results obtained are in good agreement with those obtained by laser Doppler velocimetry (LDV) and high-frame rate particle image velocimetry (HFR-PIV), on an experimental bench with excised human fetus larynges. It appears that computing with first cry physiological parameters leads to a model which is close to those obtained in experiments with real organs.
-
External validation of EPIWIN biodegradation models.
Posthumus, R; Traas, T P; Peijnenburg, W J G M; Hulzebos, E M
2005-01-01
The BIOWIN biodegradation models were evaluated for their suitability for regulatory purposes. BIOWIN includes the linear and non-linear BIODEG and MITI models for estimating the probability of rapid aerobic biodegradation and an expert survey model for primary and ultimate biodegradation estimation. Experimental biodegradation data for 110 newly notified substances were compared with the estimations of the different models. The models were applied separately and in combinations to determine which model(s) showed the best performance. The results of this study were compared with the results of other validation studies and other biodegradation models. The BIOWIN models predict not-readily biodegradable substances with high accuracy in contrast to ready biodegradability. In view of the high environmental concern of persistent chemicals and in view of the large number of not-readily biodegradable chemicals compared to the readily ones, a model is preferred that gives a minimum of false positives without a corresponding high percentage false negatives. A combination of the BIOWIN models (BIOWIN2 or BIOWIN6) showed the highest predictive value for not-readily biodegradability. However, the highest score for overall predictivity with lowest percentage false predictions was achieved by applying BIOWIN3 (pass level 2.75) and BIOWIN6.
-
Validation of PV-RPM Code in the System Advisor Model.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Klise, Geoffrey Taylor [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Lavrova, Olga [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Freeman, Janine [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
2017-04-01
This paper describes efforts made by Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to validate the SNL developed PV Reliability Performance Model (PV - RPM) algorithm as implemented in the NREL System Advisor Model (SAM). The PV - RPM model is a library of functions that estimates component failure and repair in a photovoltaic system over a desired simulation period. The failure and repair distributions in this paper are probabilistic representations of component failure and repair based on data collected by SNL for a PV power plant operating in Arizona. The validation effort focuses on whether the failure and repair dist ributions used in the SAM implementation result in estimated failures that match the expected failures developed in the proof - of - concept implementation. Results indicate that the SAM implementation of PV - RPM provides the same results as the proof - of - concep t implementation, indicating the algorithms were reproduced successfully.
-
Importance of Computer Model Validation in Pyroprocessing Technology Development
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Jung, Y. E.; Li, Hui; Yim, M. S. [Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)
2014-05-15
In this research, we developed a plan for experimental validation of one of the computer models developed for ER process modeling, i. e., the ERAD code. Several candidate surrogate materials are selected for the experiment considering the chemical and physical properties. Molten salt-based pyroprocessing technology is being examined internationally as an alternative to treat spent nuclear fuel over aqueous technology. The central process in pyroprocessing is electrorefining(ER) which separates uranium from transuranic elements and fission products present in spent nuclear fuel. ER is a widely used process in the minerals industry to purify impure metals. Studies of ER by using actual spent nuclear fuel materials are problematic for both technical and political reasons. Therefore, the initial effort for ER process optimization is made by using computer models. A number of models have been developed for this purpose. But as validation of these models is incomplete and often times problematic, the simulation results from these models are inherently uncertain.
-
Field validation of the contaminant transport model, FEMA
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wong, K.-F.V.
1986-01-01
The work describes the validation with field data of a finite element model of material transport through aquifers (FEMA). Field data from the Idaho Chemical Processing Plant, Idaho, USA and from the 58th Street landfill in Miami, Florida, USA are used. In both cases the model was first calibrated and then integrated over a span of eight years to check on the predictive capability of the model. Both predictive runs gave results that matched well with available data. (author)
-
Collis, Joe; Connor, Anthony J; Paczkowski, Marcin; Kannan, Pavitra; Pitt-Francis, Joe; Byrne, Helen M; Hubbard, Matthew E
2017-04-01
In this work, we present a pedagogical tumour growth example, in which we apply calibration and validation techniques to an uncertain, Gompertzian model of tumour spheroid growth. The key contribution of this article is the discussion and application of these methods (that are not commonly employed in the field of cancer modelling) in the context of a simple model, whose deterministic analogue is widely known within the community. In the course of the example, we calibrate the model against experimental data that are subject to measurement errors, and then validate the resulting uncertain model predictions. We then analyse the sensitivity of the model predictions to the underlying measurement model. Finally, we propose an elementary learning approach for tuning a threshold parameter in the validation procedure in order to maximize predictive accuracy of our validated model.
-
Feature Extraction for Structural Dynamics Model Validation
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Farrar, Charles [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Nishio, Mayuko [Yokohama University; Hemez, Francois [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Stull, Chris [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Park, Gyuhae [Chonnam Univesity; Cornwell, Phil [Rose-Hulman Institute of Technology; Figueiredo, Eloi [Universidade Lusófona; Luscher, D. J. [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Worden, Keith [University of Sheffield
2016-01-13
As structural dynamics becomes increasingly non-modal, stochastic and nonlinear, finite element model-updating technology must adopt the broader notions of model validation and uncertainty quantification. For example, particular re-sampling procedures must be implemented to propagate uncertainty through a forward calculation, and non-modal features must be defined to analyze nonlinear data sets. The latter topic is the focus of this report, but first, some more general comments regarding the concept of model validation will be discussed.
-
The concept of validation of numerical models for consequence analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Borg, Audun; Paulsen Husted, Bjarne; Njå, Ove
2014-01-01
Numerical models such as computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models are increasingly used in life safety studies and other types of analyses to calculate the effects of fire and explosions. The validity of these models is usually established by benchmark testing. This is done to quantitatively measure the agreement between the predictions provided by the model and the real world represented by observations in experiments. This approach assumes that all variables in the real world relevant for the specific study are adequately measured in the experiments and in the predictions made by the model. In this paper the various definitions of validation for CFD models used for hazard prediction are investigated to assess their implication for consequence analysis in a design phase. In other words, how is uncertainty in the prediction of future events reflected in the validation process? The sources of uncertainty are viewed from the perspective of the safety engineer. An example of the use of a CFD model is included to illustrate the assumptions the analyst must make and how these affect the prediction made by the model. The assessments presented in this paper are based on a review of standards and best practice guides for CFD modeling and the documentation from two existing CFD programs. Our main thrust has been to assess how validation work is performed and communicated in practice. We conclude that the concept of validation adopted for numerical models is adequate in terms of model performance. However, it does not address the main sources of uncertainty from the perspective of the safety engineer. Uncertainty in the input quantities describing future events, which are determined by the model user, outweighs the inaccuracies in the model as reported in validation studies. - Highlights: • Examine the basic concept of validation applied to models for consequence analysis. • Review standards and guides for validation of numerical models. • Comparison of the validation
-
42 CFR 476.84 - Changes as a result of DRG validation.
2010-10-01
... 42 Public Health 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Changes as a result of DRG validation. 476.84... § 476.84 Changes as a result of DRG validation. A provider or practitioner may obtain a review by a QIO... in DRG assignment as a result of QIO validation activities. ...
-
Development and validation of a two-dimensional fast-response flood estimation model
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Judi, David R [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Mcpherson, Timothy N [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Burian, Steven J [UNIV OF UTAK
2009-01-01
A finite difference formulation of the shallow water equations using an upwind differencing method was developed maintaining computational efficiency and accuracy such that it can be used as a fast-response flood estimation tool. The model was validated using both laboratory controlled experiments and an actual dam breach. Through the laboratory experiments, the model was shown to give good estimations of depth and velocity when compared to the measured data, as well as when compared to a more complex two-dimensional model. Additionally, the model was compared to high water mark data obtained from the failure of the Taum Sauk dam. The simulated inundation extent agreed well with the observed extent, with the most notable differences resulting from the inability to model sediment transport. The results of these validation studies complex two-dimensional model. Additionally, the model was compared to high water mark data obtained from the failure of the Taum Sauk dam. The simulated inundation extent agreed well with the observed extent, with the most notable differences resulting from the inability to model sediment transport. The results of these validation studies show that a relatively numerical scheme used to solve the complete shallow water equations can be used to accurately estimate flood inundation. Future work will focus on further reducing the computation time needed to provide flood inundation estimates for fast-response analyses. This will be accomplished through the efficient use of multi-core, multi-processor computers coupled with an efficient domain-tracking algorithm, as well as an understanding of the impacts of grid resolution on model results.
-
Validation of Pressure Drop Models for PHWR-type Fuel Elements
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Brasnarof Daniel; Daverio, H.
2003-01-01
In the present work an one-dimensional pressure drop analytical model and the COBRA code, are validated with experimental data of CANDU and Atucha fuel bundles in low and high pressure experimental test loops.Models have very good agreement with the experimental data, having less than 5 % of discrepancy. The analytical model results were compared with COBRA code results, having small difference between them in a wide range of pressure, temperature and mass flow
-
Statistical Analysis Methods for Physics Models Verification and Validation
De Luca, Silvia
2017-01-01
The validation and verification process is a fundamental step for any software like Geant4 and GeantV, which aim to perform data simulation using physics models and Monte Carlo techniques. As experimental physicists, we have to face the problem to compare the results obtained using simulations with what the experiments actually observed. One way to solve the problem is to perform a consistency test. Within the Geant group, we developed a C++ compact library which will be added to the automated validation process on the Geant Validation Portal
-
SWAT application in intensive irrigation systems: Model modification, calibration and validation
Dechmi, Farida; Burguete, Javier; Skhiri, Ahmed
2012-11-01
SummaryThe Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is a well established, distributed, eco-hydrologic model. However, using the study case of an agricultural intensive irrigated watershed, it was shown that all the model versions are not able to appropriately reproduce the total streamflow in such system when the irrigation source is outside the watershed. The objective of this study was to modify the SWAT2005 version for correctly simulating the main hydrological processes. Crop yield, total streamflow, total suspended sediment (TSS) losses and phosphorus load calibration and validation were performed using field survey information and water quantity and quality data recorded during 2008 and 2009 years in Del Reguero irrigated watershed in Spain. The goodness of the calibration and validation results was assessed using five statistical measures, including the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE). Results indicated that the average annual crop yield and actual evapotranspiration estimations were quite satisfactory. On a monthly basis, the values of NSE were 0.90 (calibration) and 0.80 (validation) indicating that the modified model could reproduce accurately the observed streamflow. The TSS losses were also satisfactorily estimated (NSE = 0.72 and 0.52 for the calibration and validation steps). The monthly temporal patterns and all the statistical parameters indicated that the modified SWAT-IRRIG model adequately predicted the total phosphorus (TP) loading. Therefore, the model could be used to assess the impacts of different best management practices on nonpoint phosphorus losses in irrigated systems.
-
Verification and validation for waste disposal models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
1987-07-01
A set of evaluation criteria has been developed to assess the suitability of current verification and validation techniques for waste disposal methods. A survey of current practices and techniques was undertaken and evaluated using these criteria with the items most relevant to waste disposal models being identified. Recommendations regarding the most suitable verification and validation practices for nuclear waste disposal modelling software have been made
-
Ubieta, Eduardo; Hoyo, Itzal del; Valenzuela, Loreto; Lopez-Martín, Rafael; Peña, Víctor de la; López, Susana
2017-06-01
A simulation model of a parabolic-trough solar collector developed in Modelica® language is calibrated and validated. The calibration is performed in order to approximate the behavior of the solar collector model to a real one due to the uncertainty in some of the system parameters, i.e. measured data is used during the calibration process. Afterwards, the validation of this calibrated model is done. During the validation, the results obtained from the model are compared to the ones obtained during real operation in a collector from the Plataforma Solar de Almeria (PSA).
-
Validating a perceptual distraction model using a personal two-zone sound system
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Rämö, Jussi; Christensen, Lasse; Bech, Søren
2017-01-01
This paper focuses on validating a perceptual distraction model, which aims to predict user's perceived distraction caused by audio-on-audio interference. Originally, the distraction model was trained with music targets and interferers using a simple loudspeaker setup, consisting of only two...... sound zones within the sound-zone system. Thus, validating the model using a different sound-zone system with both speech-on-music and music-on-speech stimuli sets. The results show that the model performance is equally good in both zones, i.e., with both speech- on-music and music-on-speech stimuli...
-
Structural system identification: Structural dynamics model validation
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Red-Horse, J.R.
1997-04-01
Structural system identification is concerned with the development of systematic procedures and tools for developing predictive analytical models based on a physical structure`s dynamic response characteristics. It is a multidisciplinary process that involves the ability (1) to define high fidelity physics-based analysis models, (2) to acquire accurate test-derived information for physical specimens using diagnostic experiments, (3) to validate the numerical simulation model by reconciling differences that inevitably exist between the analysis model and the experimental data, and (4) to quantify uncertainties in the final system models and subsequent numerical simulations. The goal of this project was to develop structural system identification techniques and software suitable for both research and production applications in code and model validation.
-
Corro Ramos, Isaac; van Voorn, George A K; Vemer, Pepijn; Feenstra, Talitha L; Al, Maiwenn J
2017-09-01
The validation of health economic (HE) model outcomes against empirical data is of key importance. Although statistical testing seems applicable, guidelines for the validation of HE models lack guidance on statistical validation, and actual validation efforts often present subjective judgment of graphs and point estimates. To discuss the applicability of existing validation techniques and to present a new method for quantifying the degrees of validity statistically, which is useful for decision makers. A new Bayesian method is proposed to determine how well HE model outcomes compare with empirical data. Validity is based on a pre-established accuracy interval in which the model outcomes should fall. The method uses the outcomes of a probabilistic sensitivity analysis and results in a posterior distribution around the probability that HE model outcomes can be regarded as valid. We use a published diabetes model (Modelling Integrated Care for Diabetes based on Observational data) to validate the outcome "number of patients who are on dialysis or with end-stage renal disease." Results indicate that a high probability of a valid outcome is associated with relatively wide accuracy intervals. In particular, 25% deviation from the observed outcome implied approximately 60% expected validity. Current practice in HE model validation can be improved by using an alternative method based on assessing whether the model outcomes fit to empirical data at a predefined level of accuracy. This method has the advantage of assessing both model bias and parameter uncertainty and resulting in a quantitative measure of the degree of validity that penalizes models predicting the mean of an outcome correctly but with overly wide credible intervals. Copyright © 2017 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
-
Validation of Hydrodynamic Numerical Model of a Pitching Wave Energy Converter
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
López, Maria del Pilar Heras; Thomas, Sarah; Kramer, Morten Mejlhede
2017-01-01
Validation of numerical model is essential in the development of new technologies. Commercial software and codes available simulating wave energy converters (WECs) have not been proved to work for all the available and upcoming technologies yet. The present paper presents the first stages...... of the validation process of a hydrodynamic numerical model for a pitching wave energy converter. The development of dry tests, wave flume and wave basin experiments are going to be explained, lessons learned shared and results presented....
-
Bayesian risk-based decision method for model validation under uncertainty
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Jiang Xiaomo; Mahadevan, Sankaran
2007-01-01
This paper develops a decision-making methodology for computational model validation, considering the risk of using the current model, data support for the current model, and cost of acquiring new information to improve the model. A Bayesian decision theory-based method is developed for this purpose, using a likelihood ratio as the validation metric for model assessment. An expected risk or cost function is defined as a function of the decision costs, and the likelihood and prior of each hypothesis. The risk is minimized through correctly assigning experimental data to two decision regions based on the comparison of the likelihood ratio with a decision threshold. A Bayesian validation metric is derived based on the risk minimization criterion. Two types of validation tests are considered: pass/fail tests and system response value measurement tests. The methodology is illustrated for the validation of reliability prediction models in a tension bar and an engine blade subjected to high cycle fatigue. The proposed method can effectively integrate optimal experimental design into model validation to simultaneously reduce the cost and improve the accuracy of reliability model assessment
-
Validation of multi-body modelling methodology for reconfigurable underwater robots
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Nielsen, M.C.; Eidsvik, O. A.; Blanke, Mogens
2016-01-01
This paper investigates the problem of employing reconfigurable robots in an underwater setting. The main results presented is the experimental validation of a modelling methodology for a system consisting of N dynamically connected robots with heterogeneous dynamics. Two distinct types...... of experiments are performed, a series of hydrostatic free-decay tests and a series of open-loop trajectory tests. The results are compared to a simulation based on the modelling methodology. The modelling methodology shows promising results for usage with systems composed of reconfigurable underwater modules...
-
Validation of mentorship model for newly qualified professional ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Newly qualified professional nurses (NQPNs) allocated to community health care services require the use of validated model to practice independently. Validation was done to adapt and assess if the model is understood and could be implemented by NQPNs and mentors employed in community health care services.
-
Validation and Adaptation of Router and Switch Models
Boltjes, B.; Fernandez Diaz, I.; Kock, B.A.; Langeveld, R.J.G.M.; Schoenmaker, G.
2003-01-01
This paper describes validating OPNET models of key devices for the next generation IP-based tactical network of the Royal Netherlands Army (RNLA). The task of TNO-FEL is to provide insight in scalability and performance of future deployed networks. Because validated models ol key Cisco equipment
-
Experimental validation of a mathematical model for seabed liquefaction in waves
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Sumer, B. Mutlu; Kirca, Özgür; Fredsøe, Jørgen
2011-01-01
This paper summarizes the results of an experimental study directed towards the validation of a mathematical model for the buildup of pore water pressure and resulting liquefaction of marine soils under progressive waves. Experiments were conducted under controlled conditions with silt ( d50 = 0.......070 mm) in a wave flume with a soil pit. Waves with wave heights in the range 7.7-18 cm with the water depth 55 cm and the wave period 1.6 s enabled us to study both the liquefaction and no-liquefaction regime pore water pressure buildup. The experimental data was used to validate the model. A numerical...
-
Atmospheric corrosion: statistical validation of models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Diaz, V.; Martinez-Luaces, V.; Guineo-Cobs, G.
2003-01-01
In this paper we discuss two different methods for validation of regression models, applied to corrosion data. One of them is based on the correlation coefficient and the other one is the statistical test of lack of fit. Both methods are used here to analyse fitting of bi logarithmic model in order to predict corrosion for very low carbon steel substrates in rural and urban-industrial atmospheres in Uruguay. Results for parameters A and n of the bi logarithmic model are reported here. For this purpose, all repeated values were used instead of using average values as usual. Modelling is carried out using experimental data corresponding to steel substrates under the same initial meteorological conditions ( in fact, they are put in the rack at the same time). Results of correlation coefficient are compared with the lack of it tested at two different signification levels (α=0.01 and α=0.05). Unexpected differences between them are explained and finally, it is possible to conclude, at least in the studied atmospheres, that the bi logarithmic model does not fit properly the experimental data. (Author) 18 refs
-
Qualitative Validation of the IMM Model for ISS and STS Programs
Kerstman, E.; Walton, M.; Reyes, D.; Boley, L.; Saile, L.; Young, M.; Arellano, J.; Garcia, Y.; Myers, J. G.
2016-01-01
To validate and further improve the Integrated Medical Model (IMM), medical event data were obtained from 32 ISS and 122 STS person-missions. Using the crew characteristics from these observed missions, IMM v4.0 was used to forecast medical events and medical resource utilization. The IMM medical condition incidence values were compared to the actual observed medical event incidence values, and the IMM forecasted medical resource utilization was compared to actual observed medical resource utilization. Qualitative comparisons of these parameters were conducted for both the ISS and STS programs. The results of these analyses will provide validation of IMM v4.0 and reveal areas of the model requiring adjustments to improve the overall accuracy of IMM outputs. This validation effort should result in enhanced credibility of the IMM and improved confidence in the use of IMM as a decision support tool for human space flight.
-
Development of a Conservative Model Validation Approach for Reliable Analysis
2015-01-01
CIE 2015 August 2-5, 2015, Boston, Massachusetts, USA [DRAFT] DETC2015-46982 DEVELOPMENT OF A CONSERVATIVE MODEL VALIDATION APPROACH FOR RELIABLE...obtain a conservative simulation model for reliable design even with limited experimental data. Very little research has taken into account the...3, the proposed conservative model validation is briefly compared to the conventional model validation approach. Section 4 describes how to account
-
Verification and Validation of Heat Transfer Model of AGREE Code
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Tak, N. I. [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Seker, V.; Drzewiecki, T. J.; Downar, T. J. [Department of Nuclear Engineering and Radiological Sciences, Univ. of Michigan, Michigan (United States); Kelly, J. M. [US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington (United States)
2013-05-15
The AGREE code was originally developed as a multi physics simulation code to perform design and safety analysis of Pebble Bed Reactors (PBR). Currently, additional capability for the analysis of Prismatic Modular Reactor (PMR) core is in progress. Newly implemented fluid model for a PMR core is based on a subchannel approach which has been widely used in the analyses of light water reactor (LWR) cores. A hexagonal fuel (or graphite block) is discretized into triangular prism nodes having effective conductivities. Then, a meso-scale heat transfer model is applied to the unit cell geometry of a prismatic fuel block. Both unit cell geometries of multi-hole and pin-in-hole types of prismatic fuel blocks are considered in AGREE. The main objective of this work is to verify and validate the heat transfer model newly implemented for a PMR core in the AGREE code. The measured data in the HENDEL experiment were used for the validation of the heat transfer model for a pin-in-hole fuel block. However, the HENDEL tests were limited to only steady-state conditions of pin-in-hole fuel blocks. There exist no available experimental data regarding a heat transfer in multi-hole fuel blocks. Therefore, numerical benchmarks using conceptual problems are considered to verify the heat transfer model of AGREE for multi-hole fuel blocks as well as transient conditions. The CORONA and GAMMA+ codes were used to compare the numerical results. In this work, the verification and validation study were performed for the heat transfer model of the AGREE code using the HENDEL experiment and the numerical benchmarks of selected conceptual problems. The results of the present work show that the heat transfer model of AGREE is accurate and reliable for prismatic fuel blocks. Further validation of AGREE is in progress for a whole reactor problem using the HTTR safety test data such as control rod withdrawal tests and loss-of-forced convection tests.
-
Temporal validation for landsat-based volume estimation model
Renaldo J. Arroyo; Emily B. Schultz; Thomas G. Matney; David L. Evans; Zhaofei Fan
2015-01-01
Satellite imagery can potentially reduce the costs and time associated with ground-based forest inventories; however, for satellite imagery to provide reliable forest inventory data, it must produce consistent results from one time period to the next. The objective of this study was to temporally validate a Landsat-based volume estimation model in a four county study...
-
Validating a perceptual distraction model in a personal two-zone sound system
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Rämö, Jussi; Christensen, Lasse; Bech, Søren
2017-01-01
This paper focuses on validating a perceptual distraction model, which aims to predict user’s perceived distraction caused by audio-on-audio interference, e.g., two competing audio sources within the same listening space. Originally, the distraction model was trained with music-on-music stimuli...... that the model performance is equally good in both zones, i.e., with both speech-on-music and music-on-speech stimuli, and comparable to the previous validation round (RMSE approximately 10%). The results further confirm that the distraction model can be used as a valuable tool in evaluating and optimizing...
-
Validation of advanced NSSS simulator model for loss-of-coolant accidents
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Kao, S.P.; Chang, S.K.; Huang, H.C. [Nuclear Training Branch, Northeast Utilities, Waterford, CT (United States)
1995-09-01
The replacement of the NSSS (Nuclear Steam Supply System) model on the Millstone 2 full-scope simulator has significantly increased its fidelity to simulate adverse conditions in the RCS. The new simulator NSSS model is a real-time derivative of the Nuclear Plant Analyzer by ABB. The thermal-hydraulic model is a five-equation, non-homogeneous model for water, steam, and non-condensible gases. The neutronic model is a three-dimensional nodal diffusion model. In order to certify the new NSSS model for operator training, an extensive validation effort has been performed by benchmarking the model performance against RELAP5/MOD2. This paper presents the validation results for the cases of small-and large-break loss-of-coolant accidents (LOCA). Detailed comparisons in the phenomena of reflux-condensation, phase separation, and two-phase natural circulation are discussed.
-
Hariharan, Prasanna; D'Souza, Gavin A; Horner, Marc; Morrison, Tina M; Malinauskas, Richard A; Myers, Matthew R
2017-01-01
A "credible" computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model has the potential to provide a meaningful evaluation of safety in medical devices. One major challenge in establishing "model credibility" is to determine the required degree of similarity between the model and experimental results for the model to be considered sufficiently validated. This study proposes a "threshold-based" validation approach that provides a well-defined acceptance criteria, which is a function of how close the simulation and experimental results are to the safety threshold, for establishing the model validity. The validation criteria developed following the threshold approach is not only a function of Comparison Error, E (which is the difference between experiments and simulations) but also takes in to account the risk to patient safety because of E. The method is applicable for scenarios in which a safety threshold can be clearly defined (e.g., the viscous shear-stress threshold for hemolysis in blood contacting devices). The applicability of the new validation approach was tested on the FDA nozzle geometry. The context of use (COU) was to evaluate if the instantaneous viscous shear stress in the nozzle geometry at Reynolds numbers (Re) of 3500 and 6500 was below the commonly accepted threshold for hemolysis. The CFD results ("S") of velocity and viscous shear stress were compared with inter-laboratory experimental measurements ("D"). The uncertainties in the CFD and experimental results due to input parameter uncertainties were quantified following the ASME V&V 20 standard. The CFD models for both Re = 3500 and 6500 could not be sufficiently validated by performing a direct comparison between CFD and experimental results using the Student's t-test. However, following the threshold-based approach, a Student's t-test comparing |S-D| and |Threshold-S| showed that relative to the threshold, the CFD and experimental datasets for Re = 3500 were statistically similar and the model could be
-
Development and validation of a viscoelastic and nonlinear liver model for needle insertion
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Kobayashi, Yo [Waseda University, Consolidated Research Institute for Advanced Science and Medical Care, Shinjuku, Tokyo (Japan); Onishi, Akinori; Hoshi, Takeharu; Kawamura, Kazuya [Waseda University, Graduate School of Science and Engineering, Shinjuku (Japan); Hashizume, Makoto [Kyushu University Hospital, Center for the Integration of Advanced Medicine and Innovative Technology, Fukuoka (Japan); Fujie, Masakatsu G. [Waseda University, Graduate School of Science and Engineering, Faculty of Science and Engineering, Shinjuku (Japan)
2009-01-15
The objective of our work is to develop and validate a viscoelastic and nonlinear physical liver model for organ model-based needle insertion, in which the deformation of an organ is estimated and predicted, and the needle path is determined with organ deformation taken into consideration. First, an overview is given of the development of the physical liver model. The material properties of the liver considering viscoelasticity and nonlinearity are modeled based on the measured data collected from a pig's liver. The method to develop the liver model using FEM is also shown. Second, the experimental method to validate the model is explained. Both in vitro and in vivo experiments that made use of a pig's liver were conducted for comparison with the simulation using the model. Results of the in vitro experiment showed that the model reproduces nonlinear and viscoelastic response of displacement at an internally located point with high accuracy. For a force up to 0.45 N, the maximum error is below 1 mm. Results of the in vivo experiment showed that the model reproduces the nonlinear increase of load upon the needle during insertion. Based on these results, the liver model developed and validated in this work reproduces the physical response of a liver in both in vitro and in vivo situations. (orig.)
-
Validation of ecological state space models using the Laplace approximation
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Thygesen, Uffe Høgsbro; Albertsen, Christoffer Moesgaard; Berg, Casper Willestofte
2017-01-01
Many statistical models in ecology follow the state space paradigm. For such models, the important step of model validation rarely receives as much attention as estimation or hypothesis testing, perhaps due to lack of available algorithms and software. Model validation is often based on a naive...... for estimation in general mixed effects models. Implementing one-step predictions in the R package Template Model Builder, we demonstrate that it is possible to perform model validation with little effort, even if the ecological model is multivariate, has non-linear dynamics, and whether observations...... useful directions in which the model could be improved....
-
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Boelle, A.
1997-02-17
A two-fluid model applied to the simulation of gas-solid dense fluidized beds is validated on micro scale and on macro scale. Phase coupling is carried out in the momentum and energy transport equation of both phases. The modeling is built on the kinetic theory of granular media in which the gas action has been taken into account in order to get correct expressions of transport coefficients. A description of hydrodynamic interactions between particles in high Stokes number flow is also incorporated in the model. The micro scale validation uses Lagrangian numerical simulations viewed as numerical experiments. The first validation case refers to a gas particle simple shear flow. It allows to validate the competition between two dissipation mechanisms: drag and particle collisions. The second validation case is concerted with sedimenting particles in high Stokes number flow. It allows to validate our approach of hydrodynamic interactions. This last case had led us to develop an original Lagrangian simulation with a two-way coupling between the fluid and the particles. The macro scale validation uses the results of Eulerian simulations of dense fluidized bed. Bed height, particles circulation and spontaneous created bubbles characteristics are studied and compared to experimental measurement, both looking at physical and numerical parameters. (author) 159 refs.
-
Isotopes as validation tools for global climate models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Henderson-Sellers, A.
2001-01-01
Global Climate Models (GCMs) are the predominant tool with which we predict the future climate. In order that people can have confidence in such predictions, GCMs require validation. As almost every available item of meteorological data has been exploited in the construction and tuning of GCMs to date, independent validation is very difficult. This paper explores the use of isotopes as a novel and fully independent means of evaluating GCMs. The focus is the Amazon Basin which has a long history of isotope collection and analysis and also of climate modelling: both having been reported for over thirty years. Careful consideration of the results of GCM simulations of Amazonian deforestation and climate change suggests that the recent stable isotope record is more consistent with the predicted effects of greenhouse warming, possibly combined with forest removal, than with GCM predictions of the effects of deforestation alone
-
Advanced training simulator models. Implementation and validation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Borkowsky, Jeffrey; Judd, Jerry; Belblidia, Lotfi; O'farrell, David; Andersen, Peter
2008-01-01
Modern training simulators are required to replicate plant data for both thermal-hydraulic and neutronic response. Replication is required such that reactivity manipulation on the simulator properly trains the operator for reactivity manipulation at the plant. This paper discusses advanced models which perform this function in real-time using the coupled code system THOR/S3R. This code system models the all fluids systems in detail using an advanced, two-phase thermal-hydraulic a model. The nuclear core is modeled using an advanced, three-dimensional nodal method and also by using cycle-specific nuclear data. These models are configured to run interactively from a graphical instructor station or handware operation panels. The simulator models are theoretically rigorous and are expected to replicate the physics of the plant. However, to verify replication, the models must be independently assessed. Plant data is the preferred validation method, but plant data is often not available for many important training scenarios. In the absence of data, validation may be obtained by slower-than-real-time transient analysis. This analysis can be performed by coupling a safety analysis code and a core design code. Such a coupling exists between the codes RELAP5 and SIMULATE-3K (S3K). RELAP5/S3K is used to validate the real-time model for several postulated plant events. (author)
-
Validation study of safety assessment model for radioactive waste disposal
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Munakata, Masahiro; Takeda, Seiji; Kimura, Hideo [Japan Atomic Energy Research Inst., Tokai, Ibaraki (Japan). Tokai Research Establishment
2001-12-01
The JAERI-AECL collaboration research program has been conducted to validate a groundwater flow and radionuclide transport models for safety assessment. JAERI have developed a geostatistical model for radionuclide transport through a heterogeneous geological media and verify using experimental results of field tracer tests. The simulated tracer plumes explain favorably the experimental tracer plumes. A regional groundwater flow and transport model using site-scale parameter obtained from tracer tests have been verified by comparing simulation results with observation ones of natural environmental tracer. (author)
-
Sewer solids separation by sedimentation--the problem of modeling, validation and transferability.
Kutzner, R; Brombach, H; Geiger, W F
2007-01-01
Sedimentation of sewer solids in tanks, ponds and similar devices is the most relevant process for the treatment of stormwater and combined sewer overflows in urban collecting systems. In the past a lot of research work was done to develop deterministic models for the description of this separation process. But these modern models are not commonly accepted in Germany until today. Water Authorities are sceptical with regard to model validation and transferability. Within this paper it is checked whether this scepticism is reasonable. A framework-proposal for the validation of mathematical models with zero or one dimensional spatial resolution for particle separation processes for stormwater and combined sewer overflow treatment is presented. This proposal was applied to publications of repute on sewer solids separation by sedimentation. The result was that none of the investigated models described in literature passed the validation entirely. There is an urgent need for future research in sewer solids sedimentation and remobilization!
-
A Component-Based Modeling and Validation Method for PLC Systems
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Rui Wang
2014-05-01
Full Text Available Programmable logic controllers (PLCs are complex embedded systems that are widely used in industry. This paper presents a component-based modeling and validation method for PLC systems using the behavior-interaction-priority (BIP framework. We designed a general system architecture and a component library for a type of device control system. The control software and hardware of the environment were all modeled as BIP components. System requirements were formalized as monitors. Simulation was carried out to validate the system model. A realistic example from industry of the gates control system was employed to illustrate our strategies. We found a couple of design errors during the simulation, which helped us to improve the dependability of the original systems. The results of experiment demonstrated the effectiveness of our approach.
-
Recent validation studies for two NRPB environmental transfer models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Brown, J.; Simmonds, J.R.
1991-01-01
The National Radiological Protection Board (NRPB) developed a dynamic model for the transfer of radionuclides through terrestrial food chains some years ago. This model, now called FARMLAND, predicts both instantaneous and time integrals of concentration of radionuclides in a variety of foods. The model can be used to assess the consequences of both accidental and routine releases of radioactivity to the environment; and results can be obtained as a function of time. A number of validation studies have been carried out on FARMLAND. In these the model predictions have been compared with a variety of sets of environmental measurement data. Some of these studies will be outlined in the paper. A model to predict external radiation exposure from radioactivity deposited on different surfaces in the environment has also been developed at NRPB. This model, called EXPURT (EXPosure from Urban Radionuclide Transfer), can be used to predict radiation doses as a function of time following deposition in a variety of environments, ranging from rural to inner-city areas. This paper outlines validation studies and future extensions to be carried out on EXPURT. (12 refs., 4 figs.)
-
Assessment model validity document FARF31
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Elert, Mark; Gylling Bjoern; Lindgren, Maria
2004-08-01
The prime goal of model validation is to build confidence in the model concept and that the model is fit for its intended purpose. In other words: Does the model predict transport in fractured rock adequately to be used in repository performance assessments. Are the results reasonable for the type of modelling tasks the model is designed for. Commonly, in performance assessments a large number of realisations of flow and transport is made to cover the associated uncertainties. Thus, the flow and transport including radioactive chain decay are preferably calculated in the same model framework. A rather sophisticated concept is necessary to be able to model flow and radionuclide transport in the near field and far field of a deep repository, also including radioactive chain decay. In order to avoid excessively long computational times there is a need for well-based simplifications. For this reason, the far field code FARF31 is made relatively simple, and calculates transport by using averaged entities to represent the most important processes. FARF31 has been shown to be suitable for the performance assessments within the SKB studies, e.g. SR 97. Among the advantages are that it is a fast, simple and robust code, which enables handling of many realisations with wide spread in parameters in combination with chain decay of radionuclides. Being a component in the model chain PROPER, it is easy to assign statistical distributions to the input parameters. Due to the formulation of the advection-dispersion equation in FARF31 it is possible to perform the groundwater flow calculations separately.The basis for the modelling is a stream tube, i.e. a volume of rock including fractures with flowing water, with the walls of the imaginary stream tube defined by streamlines. The transport within the stream tube is described using a dual porosity continuum approach, where it is assumed that rock can be divided into two distinct domains with different types of porosity
-
Validation of High Displacement Piezoelectric Actuator Finite Element Models
Taleghani, B. K.
2000-01-01
The paper presents the results obtained by using NASTRAN(Registered Trademark) and ANSYS(Regitered Trademark) finite element codes to predict doming of the THUNDER piezoelectric actuators during the manufacturing process and subsequent straining due to an applied input voltage. To effectively use such devices in engineering applications, modeling and characterization are essential. Length, width, dome height, and thickness are important parameters for users of such devices. Therefore, finite element models were used to assess the effects of these parameters. NASTRAN(Registered Trademark) and ANSYS(Registered Trademark) used different methods for modeling piezoelectric effects. In NASTRAN(Registered Trademark), a thermal analogy was used to represent voltage at nodes as equivalent temperatures, while ANSYS(Registered Trademark) processed the voltage directly using piezoelectric finite elements. The results of finite element models were validated by using the experimental results.
-
Validation of ASTEC v2.0 corium jet fragmentation model using FARO experiments
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hermsmeyer, S.; Pla, P.; Sangiorgi, M.
2015-01-01
Highlights: • Model validation base extended to six FARO experiments. • Focus on the calculation of the fragmented particle diameter. • Capability and limits of the ASTEC fragmentation model. • Sensitivity analysis of model outputs. - Abstract: ASTEC is an integral code for the prediction of Severe Accidents in Nuclear Power Plants. As such, it needs to cover all physical processes that could occur during accident progression, yet keeping its models simple enough for the ensemble to stay manageable and produce results within an acceptable time. The present paper is concerned with the validation of the Corium jet fragmentation model of ASTEC v2.0 rev3 by means of a selection of six experiments carried out within the FARO facility. The different conditions applied within these six experiments help to analyse the model behaviour in different situations and to expose model limits. In addition to comparing model outputs with experimental measurements, sensitivity analyses are applied to investigate the model. Results of the paper are (i) validation runs, accompanied by an identification of situations where the implemented fragmentation model does not match the experiments well, and discussion of results; (ii) its special attention to the models calculating the diameter of fragmented particles, the identification of a fault in one model implemented, and the discussion of simplification and ad hoc modification to improve the model fit; and, (iii) an investigation of the sensitivity of predictions towards inputs and parameters. In this way, the paper offers a thorough investigation of the merit and limitation of the fragmentation model used in ASTEC
-
Accounting for treatment use when validating a prognostic model: a simulation study
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Romin Pajouheshnia
2017-07-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Prognostic models often show poor performance when applied to independent validation data sets. We illustrate how treatment use in a validation set can affect measures of model performance and present the uses and limitations of available analytical methods to account for this using simulated data. Methods We outline how the use of risk-lowering treatments in a validation set can lead to an apparent overestimation of risk by a prognostic model that was developed in a treatment-naïve cohort to make predictions of risk without treatment. Potential methods to correct for the effects of treatment use when testing or validating a prognostic model are discussed from a theoretical perspective.. Subsequently, we assess, in simulated data sets, the impact of excluding treated individuals and the use of inverse probability weighting (IPW on the estimated model discrimination (c-index and calibration (observed:expected ratio and calibration plots in scenarios with different patterns and effects of treatment use. Results Ignoring the use of effective treatments in a validation data set leads to poorer model discrimination and calibration than would be observed in the untreated target population for the model. Excluding treated individuals provided correct estimates of model performance only when treatment was randomly allocated, although this reduced the precision of the estimates. IPW followed by exclusion of the treated individuals provided correct estimates of model performance in data sets where treatment use was either random or moderately associated with an individual's risk when the assumptions of IPW were met, but yielded incorrect estimates in the presence of non-positivity or an unobserved confounder. Conclusions When validating a prognostic model developed to make predictions of risk without treatment, treatment use in the validation set can bias estimates of the performance of the model in future targeted individuals, and
-
Multiphysics modelling and experimental validation of high concentration photovoltaic modules
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Theristis, Marios; Fernández, Eduardo F.; Sumner, Mike; O'Donovan, Tadhg S.
2017-01-01
Highlights: • A multiphysics modelling approach for concentrating photovoltaics was developed. • An experimental campaign was conducted to validate the models. • The experimental results were in good agreement with the models. • The multiphysics modelling allows the concentrator’s optimisation. - Abstract: High concentration photovoltaics, equipped with high efficiency multijunction solar cells, have great potential in achieving cost-effective and clean electricity generation at utility scale. Such systems are more complex compared to conventional photovoltaics because of the multiphysics effect that is present. Modelling the power output of such systems is therefore crucial for their further market penetration. Following this line, a multiphysics modelling procedure for high concentration photovoltaics is presented in this work. It combines an open source spectral model, a single diode electrical model and a three-dimensional finite element thermal model. In order to validate the models and the multiphysics modelling procedure against actual data, an outdoor experimental campaign was conducted in Albuquerque, New Mexico using a high concentration photovoltaic monomodule that is thoroughly described in terms of its geometry and materials. The experimental results were in good agreement (within 2.7%) with the predicted maximum power point. This multiphysics approach is relatively more complex when compared to empirical models, but besides the overall performance prediction it can also provide better understanding of the physics involved in the conversion of solar irradiance into electricity. It can therefore be used for the design and optimisation of high concentration photovoltaic modules.
-
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Weathers, J.B.; Luck, R.; Weathers, J.W.
2009-01-01
The complexity of mathematical models used by practicing engineers is increasing due to the growing availability of sophisticated mathematical modeling tools and ever-improving computational power. For this reason, the need to define a well-structured process for validating these models against experimental results has become a pressing issue in the engineering community. This validation process is partially characterized by the uncertainties associated with the modeling effort as well as the experimental results. The net impact of the uncertainties on the validation effort is assessed through the 'noise level of the validation procedure', which can be defined as an estimate of the 95% confidence uncertainty bounds for the comparison error between actual experimental results and model-based predictions of the same quantities of interest. Although general descriptions associated with the construction of the noise level using multivariate statistics exists in the literature, a detailed procedure outlining how to account for the systematic and random uncertainties is not available. In this paper, the methodology used to derive the covariance matrix associated with the multivariate normal pdf based on random and systematic uncertainties is examined, and a procedure used to estimate this covariance matrix using Monte Carlo analysis is presented. The covariance matrices are then used to construct approximate 95% confidence constant probability contours associated with comparison error results for a practical example. In addition, the example is used to show the drawbacks of using a first-order sensitivity analysis when nonlinear local sensitivity coefficients exist. Finally, the example is used to show the connection between the noise level of the validation exercise calculated using multivariate and univariate statistics.
-
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Weathers, J.B. [Shock, Noise, and Vibration Group, Northrop Grumman Shipbuilding, P.O. Box 149, Pascagoula, MS 39568 (United States)], E-mail: James.Weathers@ngc.com; Luck, R. [Department of Mechanical Engineering, Mississippi State University, 210 Carpenter Engineering Building, P.O. Box ME, Mississippi State, MS 39762-5925 (United States)], E-mail: Luck@me.msstate.edu; Weathers, J.W. [Structural Analysis Group, Northrop Grumman Shipbuilding, P.O. Box 149, Pascagoula, MS 39568 (United States)], E-mail: Jeffrey.Weathers@ngc.com
2009-11-15
The complexity of mathematical models used by practicing engineers is increasing due to the growing availability of sophisticated mathematical modeling tools and ever-improving computational power. For this reason, the need to define a well-structured process for validating these models against experimental results has become a pressing issue in the engineering community. This validation process is partially characterized by the uncertainties associated with the modeling effort as well as the experimental results. The net impact of the uncertainties on the validation effort is assessed through the 'noise level of the validation procedure', which can be defined as an estimate of the 95% confidence uncertainty bounds for the comparison error between actual experimental results and model-based predictions of the same quantities of interest. Although general descriptions associated with the construction of the noise level using multivariate statistics exists in the literature, a detailed procedure outlining how to account for the systematic and random uncertainties is not available. In this paper, the methodology used to derive the covariance matrix associated with the multivariate normal pdf based on random and systematic uncertainties is examined, and a procedure used to estimate this covariance matrix using Monte Carlo analysis is presented. The covariance matrices are then used to construct approximate 95% confidence constant probability contours associated with comparison error results for a practical example. In addition, the example is used to show the drawbacks of using a first-order sensitivity analysis when nonlinear local sensitivity coefficients exist. Finally, the example is used to show the connection between the noise level of the validation exercise calculated using multivariate and univariate statistics.
-
Large-scale multimodal transport modelling. Part 2: Implementation and validation
CSIR Research Space (South Africa)
Van Heerden, Q
2013-07-01
Full Text Available their individual utilities using both time and cost elements. The agent-based model is run for the Nelson Mandela Bay Metropolitan area using multiple modes that include commercial vehicles. We validate the simulation results against regional traffic counts...
-
Validation of Nonlinear Bipolar Transistor Model by Small-Signal Measurements
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Vidkjær, Jens; Porra, V.; Zhu, J.
1992-01-01
A new method for the validity analysis of nonlinear transistor models is presented based on DC-and small-signal S-parameter measurements and realistic consideration of the measurement and de-embedding errors and singularities of the small-signal equivalent circuit. As an example, some analysis...... results for an extended Gummel Poon model are presented in the case of a UHF bipolar power transistor....
-
Monte Carlo Modelling of Mammograms : Development and Validation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Spyrou, G.; Panayiotakis, G.; Bakas, A.; Tzanakos, G.
1998-01-01
A software package using Monte Carlo methods has been developed for the simulation of x-ray mammography. A simplified geometry of the mammographic apparatus has been considered along with the software phantom of compressed breast. This phantom may contain inhomogeneities of various compositions and sizes at any point. Using this model one can produce simulated mammograms. Results that demonstrate the validity of this simulation are presented. (authors)
-
Results from the First Validation Phase of CAP code
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Choo, Yeon Joon; Hong, Soon Joon; Hwang, Su Hyun; Kim, Min Ki; Lee, Byung Chul; Ha, Sang Jun; Choi, Hoon
2010-01-01
The second stage of Safety Analysis Code Development for Nuclear Power Plants was lunched on Apirl, 2010 and is scheduled to be through 2012, of which the scope of work shall cover from code validation to licensing preparation. As a part of this project, CAP(Containment Analysis Package) will follow the same procedures. CAP's validation works are organized hieratically into four validation steps using; 1) Fundamental phenomena. 2) Principal phenomena (mixing and transport) and components in containment. 3) Demonstration test by small, middle, large facilities and International Standard Problems. 4) Comparison with other containment codes such as GOTHIC or COMTEMPT. In addition, collecting the experimental data related to containment phenomena and then constructing the database is one of the major works during the second stage as a part of this project. From the validation process of fundamental phenomenon, it could be expected that the current capability and the future improvements of CAP code will be revealed. For this purpose, simple but significant problems, which have the exact analytical solution, were selected and calculated for validation of fundamental phenomena. In this paper, some results of validation problems for the selected fundamental phenomena will be summarized and discussed briefly
-
Validation of a regional distribution model in environmental risk assessment of substances
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Berding, V.
2000-06-26
The regional distribution model SimpleBox proposed in the TGD (Technical Guidance Document) and implemented in the EUSES software (European Union System for the Evaluation of Substances) was validated. The aim of this investigation was to determine the applicability and weaknesses of the model and to make proposals for improvement. The validation was performed using the scheme set up by SCHWARTZ (2000) of which the main aspects are the division into internal and external validation, i.e. into generic and task-specific properties of the model. These two validation parts contain the scrutiny of theory, sensitivity analyses, comparison of predicted environmental concentrations with measured ones by means of scenario analyses, uncertainty analyses and comparison with alternative models. Generally, the model employed is a reasonable compromise between complexity and simplification. Simpler models are applicable, too, but in many cases the results can deviate considerably from the measured values. For the sewage treatment model, it could be shown that its influence on the predicted concentration is very low and a much simpler model fulfils its purpose in a similar way. It is proposed to improve the model in several ways, e.g. by including the pH/pK-correction for dissociating substances or by alternative estimations functions for partition coefficients. But the main focus for future improvements should be on the amelioration of release estimations and substance characteristics as degradation rates and partition coefficients.
-
Developing a model for validation and prediction of bank customer ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Credit risk is the most important risk of banks. The main approaches of the bank to reduce credit risk are correct validation using the final status and the validation model parameters. High fuel of bank reserves and lost or outstanding facilities of banks indicate the lack of appropriate validation models in the banking network.
-
Validation of heat transfer models for gap cooling
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Okano, Yukimitsu; Nagae, Takashi; Murase, Michio
2004-01-01
For severe accident assessment of a light water reactor, models of heat transfer in a narrow annular gap between overheated core debris and a reactor pressure vessel are important for evaluating vessel integrity and accident management. The authors developed and improved the models of heat transfer. However, validation was not sufficient for applicability of the gap heat flux correlation to the debris cooling in the vessel lower head and applicability of the local boiling heat flux correlations to the high-pressure conditions. Therefore, in this paper, we evaluated the validity of the heat transfer models and correlations by analyses for ALPHA and LAVA experiments where molten aluminum oxide (Al 2 O 3 ) at about 2700 K was poured into the high pressure water pool in a small-scale simulated vessel lower head. In the heating process of the vessel wall, the calculated heating rate and peak temperature agreed well with the measured values, and the validity of the heat transfer models and gap heat flux correlation was confirmed. In the cooling process of the vessel wall, the calculated cooling rate was compared with the measured value, and the validity of the nucleate boiling heat flux correlation was confirmed. The peak temperatures of the vessel wall in ALPHA and LAVA experiments were lower than the temperature at the minimum heat flux point between film boiling and transition boiling, so the minimum heat flux correlation could not be validated. (author)
-
Sizing and scaling requirements of a large-scale physical model for code validation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Khaleel, R.; Legore, T.
1990-01-01
Model validation is an important consideration in application of a code for performance assessment and therefore in assessing the long-term behavior of the engineered and natural barriers of a geologic repository. Scaling considerations relevant to porous media flow are reviewed. An analysis approach is presented for determining the sizing requirements of a large-scale, hydrology physical model. The physical model will be used to validate performance assessment codes that evaluate the long-term behavior of the repository isolation system. Numerical simulation results for sizing requirements are presented for a porous medium model in which the media properties are spatially uncorrelated
-
Solar Sail Models and Test Measurements Correspondence for Validation Requirements Definition
Ewing, Anthony; Adams, Charles
2004-01-01
Solar sails are being developed as a mission-enabling technology in support of future NASA science missions. Current efforts have advanced solar sail technology sufficient to justify a flight validation program. A primary objective of this activity is to test and validate solar sail models that are currently under development so that they may be used with confidence in future science mission development (e.g., scalable to larger sails). Both system and model validation requirements must be defined early in the program to guide design cycles and to ensure that relevant and sufficient test data will be obtained to conduct model validation to the level required. A process of model identification, model input/output documentation, model sensitivity analyses, and test measurement correspondence is required so that decisions can be made to satisfy validation requirements within program constraints.
-
Validity of information security policy models
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Joshua Onome Imoniana
Full Text Available Validity is concerned with establishing evidence for the use of a method to be used with a particular set of population. Thus, when we address the issue of application of security policy models, we are concerned with the implementation of a certain policy, taking into consideration the standards required, through attribution of scores to every item in the research instrument. En today's globalized economic scenarios, the implementation of information security policy, in an information technology environment, is a condition sine qua non for the strategic management process of any organization. Regarding this topic, various studies present evidences that, the responsibility for maintaining a policy rests primarily with the Chief Security Officer. The Chief Security Officer, in doing so, strives to enhance the updating of technologies, in order to meet all-inclusive business continuity planning policies. Therefore, for such policy to be effective, it has to be entirely embraced by the Chief Executive Officer. This study was developed with the purpose of validating specific theoretical models, whose designs were based on literature review, by sampling 10 of the Automobile Industries located in the ABC region of Metropolitan São Paulo City. This sampling was based on the representativeness of such industries, particularly with regards to each one's implementation of information technology in the region. The current study concludes, presenting evidence of the discriminating validity of four key dimensions of the security policy, being such: the Physical Security, the Logical Access Security, the Administrative Security, and the Legal & Environmental Security. On analyzing the Alpha of Crombach structure of these security items, results not only attest that the capacity of those industries to implement security policies is indisputable, but also, the items involved, homogeneously correlate to each other.
-
Developing and Validating the Socio-Technical Model in Ontology Engineering
Silalahi, Mesnan; Indra Sensuse, Dana; Giri Sucahyo, Yudho; Fadhilah Akmaliah, Izzah; Rahayu, Puji; Cahyaningsih, Elin
2018-03-01
This paper describes results from an attempt to develop a model in ontology engineering methodology and a way to validate the model. The approach to methodology in ontology engineering is from the point view of socio-technical system theory. Qualitative research synthesis is used to build the model using meta-ethnography. In order to ensure the objectivity of the measurement, inter-rater reliability method was applied using a multi-rater Fleiss Kappa. The results show the accordance of the research output with the diamond model in the socio-technical system theory by evidence of the interdependency of the four socio-technical variables namely people, technology, structure and task.
-
Experimental Validation of Flow Force Models for Fast Switching Valves
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Bender, Niels Christian; Pedersen, Henrik Clemmensen; Nørgård, Christian
2017-01-01
This paper comprises a detailed study of the forces acting on a Fast Switching Valve (FSV) plunger. The objective is to investigate to what extend different models are valid to be used for design purposes. These models depend on the geometry of the moving plunger and the properties of the surroun......This paper comprises a detailed study of the forces acting on a Fast Switching Valve (FSV) plunger. The objective is to investigate to what extend different models are valid to be used for design purposes. These models depend on the geometry of the moving plunger and the properties...... to compare and validate different models, where an effort is directed towards capturing the fluid squeeze effect just before material on material contact. The test data is compared with simulation data relying solely on analytic formulations. The general dynamics of the plunger is validated...
-
Statistical validation of normal tissue complication probability models
Xu, Cheng-Jian; van der Schaaf, Arjen; van t Veld, Aart; Langendijk, Johannes A.; Schilstra, Cornelis
2012-01-01
PURPOSE: To investigate the applicability and value of double cross-validation and permutation tests as established statistical approaches in the validation of normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) models. METHODS AND MATERIALS: A penalized regression method, LASSO (least absolute shrinkage
-
Wave Tank Testing and Model Validation of an Autonomous Wave Energy Converter
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Bret Bosma
2015-08-01
Full Text Available A key component in bringing ocean wave energy converters from concept to commercialization is the building and testing of scaled prototypes to provide model validation. A one quarter scale prototype of an autonomous two body heaving point absorber was modeled, built, and tested for this work. Wave tank testing results are compared with two hydrodynamic and system models—implemented in both ANSYS AQWA and MATLAB/Simulink—and show model validation over certain regions of operation. This work will serve as a guide for future developers of wave energy converter devices, providing insight in taking their design from concept to prototype stage.
-
Monte Carlo Modelling of Mammograms : Development and Validation
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Spyrou, G; Panayiotakis, G [Univercity of Patras, School of Medicine, Medical Physics Department, 265 00 Patras (Greece); Bakas, A [Technological Educational Institution of Athens, Department of Radiography, 122 10 Athens (Greece); Tzanakos, G [University of Athens, Department of Physics, Divission of Nuclear and Particle Physics, 157 71 Athens (Greece)
1999-12-31
A software package using Monte Carlo methods has been developed for the simulation of x-ray mammography. A simplified geometry of the mammographic apparatus has been considered along with the software phantom of compressed breast. This phantom may contain inhomogeneities of various compositions and sizes at any point. Using this model one can produce simulated mammograms. Results that demonstrate the validity of this simulation are presented. (authors) 16 refs, 4 figs
-
Preliminary validation of a Monte Carlo model for IMRT fields
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wright, Tracy; Lye, Jessica; Mohammadi, Mohammad
2011-01-01
Full text: A Monte Carlo model of an Elekta linac, validated for medium to large (10-30 cm) symmetric fields, has been investigated for small, irregular and asymmetric fields suitable for IMRT treatments. The model has been validated with field segments using radiochromic film in solid water. The modelled positions of the multileaf collimator (MLC) leaves have been validated using EBT film, In the model, electrons with a narrow energy spectrum are incident on the target and all components of the linac head are included. The MLC is modelled using the EGSnrc MLCE component module. For the validation, a number of single complex IMRT segments with dimensions approximately 1-8 cm were delivered to film in solid water (see Fig, I), The same segments were modelled using EGSnrc by adjusting the MLC leaf positions in the model validated for 10 cm symmetric fields. Dose distributions along the centre of each MLC leaf as determined by both methods were compared. A picket fence test was also performed to confirm the MLC leaf positions. 95% of the points in the modelled dose distribution along the leaf axis agree with the film measurement to within 1%/1 mm for dose difference and distance to agreement. Areas of most deviation occur in the penumbra region. A system has been developed to calculate the MLC leaf positions in the model for any planned field size.
-
Validation techniques of agent based modelling for geospatial simulations
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
M. Darvishi
2014-10-01
Full Text Available One of the most interesting aspects of modelling and simulation study is to describe the real world phenomena that have specific properties; especially those that are in large scales and have dynamic and complex behaviours. Studying these phenomena in the laboratory is costly and in most cases it is impossible. Therefore, Miniaturization of world phenomena in the framework of a model in order to simulate the real phenomena is a reasonable and scientific approach to understand the world. Agent-based modelling and simulation (ABMS is a new modelling method comprising of multiple interacting agent. They have been used in the different areas; for instance, geographic information system (GIS, biology, economics, social science and computer science. The emergence of ABM toolkits in GIS software libraries (e.g. ESRI’s ArcGIS, OpenMap, GeoTools, etc for geospatial modelling is an indication of the growing interest of users to use of special capabilities of ABMS. Since ABMS is inherently similar to human cognition, therefore it could be built easily and applicable to wide range applications than a traditional simulation. But a key challenge about ABMS is difficulty in their validation and verification. Because of frequent emergence patterns, strong dynamics in the system and the complex nature of ABMS, it is hard to validate and verify ABMS by conventional validation methods. Therefore, attempt to find appropriate validation techniques for ABM seems to be necessary. In this paper, after reviewing on Principles and Concepts of ABM for and its applications, the validation techniques and challenges of ABM validation are discussed.
-
Validation techniques of agent based modelling for geospatial simulations
Darvishi, M.; Ahmadi, G.
2014-10-01
One of the most interesting aspects of modelling and simulation study is to describe the real world phenomena that have specific properties; especially those that are in large scales and have dynamic and complex behaviours. Studying these phenomena in the laboratory is costly and in most cases it is impossible. Therefore, Miniaturization of world phenomena in the framework of a model in order to simulate the real phenomena is a reasonable and scientific approach to understand the world. Agent-based modelling and simulation (ABMS) is a new modelling method comprising of multiple interacting agent. They have been used in the different areas; for instance, geographic information system (GIS), biology, economics, social science and computer science. The emergence of ABM toolkits in GIS software libraries (e.g. ESRI's ArcGIS, OpenMap, GeoTools, etc) for geospatial modelling is an indication of the growing interest of users to use of special capabilities of ABMS. Since ABMS is inherently similar to human cognition, therefore it could be built easily and applicable to wide range applications than a traditional simulation. But a key challenge about ABMS is difficulty in their validation and verification. Because of frequent emergence patterns, strong dynamics in the system and the complex nature of ABMS, it is hard to validate and verify ABMS by conventional validation methods. Therefore, attempt to find appropriate validation techniques for ABM seems to be necessary. In this paper, after reviewing on Principles and Concepts of ABM for and its applications, the validation techniques and challenges of ABM validation are discussed.
-
Validation of a mixture-averaged thermal diffusion model for premixed lean hydrogen flames
Schlup, Jason; Blanquart, Guillaume
2018-03-01
The mixture-averaged thermal diffusion model originally proposed by Chapman and Cowling is validated using multiple flame configurations. Simulations using detailed hydrogen chemistry are done on one-, two-, and three-dimensional flames. The analysis spans flat and stretched, steady and unsteady, and laminar and turbulent flames. Quantitative and qualitative results using the thermal diffusion model compare very well with the more complex multicomponent diffusion model. Comparisons are made using flame speeds, surface areas, species profiles, and chemical source terms. Once validated, this model is applied to three-dimensional laminar and turbulent flames. For these cases, thermal diffusion causes an increase in the propagation speed of the flames as well as increased product chemical source terms in regions of high positive curvature. The results illustrate the necessity for including thermal diffusion, and the accuracy and computational efficiency of the mixture-averaged thermal diffusion model.
-
Improvement and Validation of Weld Residual Stress Modelling Procedure
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zang, Weilin; Gunnars, Jens; Dong, Pingsha; Hong, Jeong K.
2009-06-01
The objective of this work is to identify and evaluate improvements for the residual stress modelling procedure currently used in Sweden. There is a growing demand to eliminate any unnecessary conservatism involved in residual stress assumptions. The study was focused on the development and validation of an improved weld residual stress modelling procedure, by taking advantage of the recent advances in residual stress modelling and stress measurement techniques. The major changes applied in the new weld residual stress modelling procedure are: - Improved procedure for heat source calibration based on use of analytical solutions. - Use of an isotropic hardening model where mixed hardening data is not available. - Use of an annealing model for improved simulation of strain relaxation in re-heated material. The new modelling procedure is demonstrated to capture the main characteristics of the through thickness stress distributions by validation to experimental measurements. Three austenitic stainless steel butt-welds cases are analysed, covering a large range of pipe geometries. From the cases it is evident that there can be large differences between the residual stresses predicted using the new procedure, and the earlier procedure or handbook recommendations. Previously recommended profiles could give misleading fracture assessment results. The stress profiles according to the new procedure agree well with the measured data. If data is available then a mixed hardening model should be used
-
Improvement and Validation of Weld Residual Stress Modelling Procedure
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Zang, Weilin; Gunnars, Jens (Inspecta Technology AB, Stockholm (Sweden)); Dong, Pingsha; Hong, Jeong K. (Center for Welded Structures Research, Battelle, Columbus, OH (United States))
2009-06-15
The objective of this work is to identify and evaluate improvements for the residual stress modelling procedure currently used in Sweden. There is a growing demand to eliminate any unnecessary conservatism involved in residual stress assumptions. The study was focused on the development and validation of an improved weld residual stress modelling procedure, by taking advantage of the recent advances in residual stress modelling and stress measurement techniques. The major changes applied in the new weld residual stress modelling procedure are: - Improved procedure for heat source calibration based on use of analytical solutions. - Use of an isotropic hardening model where mixed hardening data is not available. - Use of an annealing model for improved simulation of strain relaxation in re-heated material. The new modelling procedure is demonstrated to capture the main characteristics of the through thickness stress distributions by validation to experimental measurements. Three austenitic stainless steel butt-welds cases are analysed, covering a large range of pipe geometries. From the cases it is evident that there can be large differences between the residual stresses predicted using the new procedure, and the earlier procedure or handbook recommendations. Previously recommended profiles could give misleading fracture assessment results. The stress profiles according to the new procedure agree well with the measured data. If data is available then a mixed hardening model should be used
-
The Danish national passenger model – Model specification and results
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Rich, Jeppe; Hansen, Christian Overgaard
2016-01-01
The paper describes the structure of the new Danish National Passenger model and provides on this basis a general discussion of large-scale model design, cost-damping and model validation. The paper aims at providing three main contributions to the existing literature. Firstly, at the general level......, the paper provides a description of a large-scale forecast model with a discussion of the linkage between population synthesis, demand and assignment. Secondly, the paper gives specific attention to model specification and in particular choice of functional form and cost-damping. Specifically we suggest...... a family of logarithmic spline functions and illustrate how it is applied in the model. Thirdly and finally, we evaluate model sensitivity and performance by evaluating the distance distribution and elasticities. In the paper we present results where the spline-function is compared with more traditional...
-
BIOMOVS: an international model validation study
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Haegg, C.; Johansson, G.
1988-01-01
BIOMOVS (BIOspheric MOdel Validation Study) is an international study where models used for describing the distribution of radioactive and nonradioactive trace substances in terrestrial and aquatic environments are compared and tested. The main objectives of the study are to compare and test the accuracy of predictions between such models, explain differences in these predictions, recommend priorities for future research concerning the improvement of the accuracy of model predictions and act as a forum for the exchange of ideas, experience and information. (author)
-
BIOMOVS: An international model validation study
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Haegg, C.; Johansson, G.
1987-01-01
BIOMOVS (BIOspheric MOdel Validation Study) is an international study where models used for describing the distribution of radioactive and nonradioactive trace substances in terrestrial and aquatic environments are compared and tested. The main objectives of the study are to compare and test the accuracy of predictions between such models, explain differences in these predictions, recommend priorities for future research concerning the improvement of the accuracy of model predictions and act as a forum for the exchange of ideas, experience and information. (orig.)
-
A Practical Approach to Validating a PD Model
Medema, L.; Koning, de R.; Lensink, B.W.
2009-01-01
The capital adequacy framework Basel II aims to promote the adoption of stronger risk management practices by the banking industry. The implementation makes validation of credit risk models more important. Lenders therefore need a validation methodology to convince their supervisors that their
-
A practical approach to validating a PD model
Medema, Lydian; Koning, Ruud H.; Lensink, Robert; Medema, M.
The capital adequacy framework Basel II aims to promote the adoption of stronger risk management practices by the banking industry. The implementation makes validation of credit risk models more important. Lenders therefore need a validation methodology to convince their supervisors that their
-
Validation of the replica trick for simple models
Shinzato, Takashi
2018-04-01
We discuss the replica analytic continuation using several simple models in order to prove mathematically the validity of the replica analysis, which is used in a wide range of fields related to large-scale complex systems. While replica analysis consists of two analytical techniques—the replica trick (or replica analytic continuation) and the thermodynamical limit (and/or order parameter expansion)—we focus our study on replica analytic continuation, which is the mathematical basis of the replica trick. We apply replica analysis to solve a variety of analytical models, and examine the properties of replica analytic continuation. Based on the positive results for these models we propose that replica analytic continuation is a robust procedure in replica analysis.
-
Deployable and Conformal Planar Micro-Devices: Design and Model Validation
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jinda Zhuang
2014-08-01
Full Text Available We report a design concept for a deployable planar microdevice and the modeling and experimental validation of its mechanical behavior. The device consists of foldable membranes that are suspended between flexible stems and actuated by push-pull wires. Such a deployable device can be introduced into a region of interest in its compact “collapsed” state and then deployed to conformally cover a large two-dimensional surface area for minimally invasive biomedical operations and other engineering applications. We develop and experimentally validate theoretical models based on the energy minimization approach to examine the conformality and figures of merit of the device. The experimental results obtained using model contact surfaces agree well with the prediction and quantitatively highlight the importance of the membrane bending modulus in controlling surface conformality. The present study establishes an early foundation for the mechanical design of this and related deployable planar microdevice concepts.
-
Copenhagen Psychosocial Questionnaire - A validation study using the Job Demand-Resources model.
Berthelsen, Hanne; Hakanen, Jari J; Westerlund, Hugo
2018-01-01
This study aims at investigating the nomological validity of the Copenhagen Psychosocial Questionnaire (COPSOQ II) by using an extension of the Job Demands-Resources (JD-R) model with aspects of work ability as outcome. The study design is cross-sectional. All staff working at public dental organizations in four regions of Sweden were invited to complete an electronic questionnaire (75% response rate, n = 1345). The questionnaire was based on COPSOQ II scales, the Utrecht Work Engagement scale, and the one-item Work Ability Score in combination with a proprietary item. The data was analysed by Structural Equation Modelling. This study contributed to the literature by showing that: A) The scale characteristics were satisfactory and the construct validity of COPSOQ instrument could be integrated in the JD-R framework; B) Job resources arising from leadership may be a driver of the two processes included in the JD-R model; and C) Both the health impairment and motivational processes were associated with WA, and the results suggested that leadership may impact WA, in particularly by securing task resources. In conclusion, the nomological validity of COPSOQ was supported as the JD-R model-can be operationalized by the instrument. This may be helpful for transferral of complex survey results and work life theories to practitioners in the field.
-
Base Flow Model Validation, Phase I
National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The innovation is the systematic "building-block" validation of CFD/turbulence models employing a GUI driven CFD code (RPFM) and existing as well as new data sets to...
-
Model validation studies of solar systems, Phase III. Final report
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Lantz, L.J.; Winn, C.B.
1978-12-01
Results obtained from a validation study of the TRNSYS, SIMSHAC, and SOLCOST solar system simulation and design are presented. Also included are comparisons between the FCHART and SOLCOST solar system design programs and some changes that were made to the SOLCOST program. Finally, results obtained from the analysis of several solar radiation models are presented. Separate abstracts were prepared for ten papers.
-
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
NONE
1997-12-31
This workshop on turbulent viscosity models and on their experimental validation was organized by the `convection` section of the French society of thermal engineers. From the 9 papers presented during this workshop, 8 deal with the modeling of turbulent flows inside combustion chambers, turbo-machineries or in other energy-related applications, and have been selected for ETDE. (J.S.)
-
High Turbidity Solis Clear Sky Model: Development and Validation
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Pierre Ineichen
2018-03-01
Full Text Available The Solis clear sky model is a spectral scheme based on radiative transfer calculations and the Lambert–Beer relation. Its broadband version is a simplified fast analytical version; it is limited to broadband aerosol optical depths lower than 0.45, which is a weakness when applied in countries with very high turbidity such as China or India. In order to extend the use of the original simplified version of the model for high turbidity values, we developed a new version of the broadband Solis model based on radiative transfer calculations, valid for turbidity values up to 7, for the three components, global, beam, and diffuse, and for the four aerosol types defined by Shettle and Fenn. A validation of low turbidity data acquired in Geneva shows slightly better results than the previous version. On data acquired at sites presenting higher turbidity data, the bias stays within ±4% for the beam and the global irradiances, and the standard deviation around 5% for clean and stable condition data and around 12% for questionable data and variable sky conditions.
-
Modeling and Validation across Scales: Parametrizing the effect of the forested landscape
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Dellwik, Ebba; Badger, Merete; Angelou, Nikolas
be transferred into a parametrization of forests in wind models. The presentation covers three scales: the single tree, the forest edges and clearings, and the large-scale forested landscape in which the forest effects are parameterized with a roughness length. Flow modeling results and validation against...
-
On the validity of cosmic no-hair conjecture in an anisotropic inationary model
Do, Tuan Q.
2018-05-01
We will present main results of our recent investigations on the validity of cosmic no-hair conjecture proposed by Hawking and his colleagues long time ago in the framework of an anisotropic inflationary model proposed by Kanno, Soda, and Watanabe. As a result, we will show that the cosmic no-hair conjecture seems to be generally violated in the Kanno-Soda- Watanabe model for both canonical and non-canonical scalar fields due to the existence of a non-trivial coupling term between scalar and electromagnetic fields. However, we will also show that the validity of the cosmic no-hair conjecture will be ensured once a unusual scalar field called the phantom field, whose kinetic energy term is negative definite, is introduced into the Kanno-Soda-Watanabe model.
-
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Attwood, C.; Barraclough, I.; Brown, J.
1998-06-01
There is a wide range of models available at NRPB to predict the transfer of radionuclides through the environment. Such models form an essential part of assessments of the radiological impact of releases of radionuclides into the environment. These models cover: the atmosphere; the aquatic environment; the geosphere; the terrestrial environment including foodchains. It is important that the models used for radiological impact assessments are robust, reliable and suitable for the assessment being undertaken. During model development it is, therefore, important that the model is both verified and validated. Verification of a model involves ensuring that it has been implemented correctly, while validation consists of demonstrating that the model is an adequate representation of the real environment. The extent to which a model can be verified depends on its complexity and whether similar models exist. For relatively simple models verification is straightforward, but for more complex models verification has to form part of the development, coding and testing of the model within quality assurance procedures. Validation of models should ideally consist of comparisons between the results of the models and experimental or environmental measurement data that were not used to develop the model. This is more straightforward for some models than for others depending on the quantity and type of data available. Validation becomes increasingly difficult for models which are intended to predict environmental transfer at long times or at great distances. It is, therefore, necessary to adopt qualitative validation techniques to ensure that the model is an adequate representation of the real environment. This report summarises the models used at NRPB to predict the transfer of radionuclides through the environment as part of a radiological impact assessment. It outlines the work carried out to verify and validate the models. The majority of these models are not currently available
-
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zerbino, H.
1997-01-01
The physical models implemented in power plant simulators have greatly increased in performance and complexity in recent years. This process has been enabled by the ever increasing computing power available at affordable prices. This paper describes this process from several angles: First the operational requirements which are more critical from the point of view of model performance, both for normal and off-normal operating conditions; A second section discusses core model characteristics in the light of the solutions implemented by Thomson Training and Simulation (TT and S) in several full-scope simulators recently built and delivered for Dutch, German, and French nuclear power plants; finally we consider the model validation procedures, which are of course an integral part of model development, and which are becoming more and more severe as performance expectations increase. As a conclusion, it may be asserted that in the core modeling field, as in other areas, the general improvement in the quality of simulation codes has resulted in a fairly rapid convergence towards mainstream engineering-grade calculations. This is remarkable performance in view of the stringent real-time requirements which the simulation codes must satisfy as well as the extremely wide range of operating conditions that they are called upon to cover with good accuracy. (author)
-
Validation of DYSTOOL for unsteady aerodynamic modeling of 2D airfoils
González, A.; Gomez-Iradi, S.; Munduate, X.
2014-06-01
From the point of view of wind turbine modeling, an important group of tools is based on blade element momentum (BEM) theory using 2D aerodynamic calculations on the blade elements. Due to the importance of this sectional computation of the blades, the National Renewable Wind Energy Center of Spain (CENER) developed DYSTOOL, an aerodynamic code for 2D airfoil modeling based on the Beddoes-Leishman model. The main focus here is related to the model parameters, whose values depend on the airfoil or the operating conditions. In this work, the values of the parameters are adjusted using available experimental or CFD data. The present document is mainly related to the validation of the results of DYSTOOL for 2D airfoils. The results of the computations have been compared with unsteady experimental data of the S809 and NACA0015 profiles. Some of the cases have also been modeled using the CFD code WMB (Wind Multi Block), within the framework of a collaboration with ACCIONA Windpower. The validation has been performed using pitch oscillations with different reduced frequencies, Reynolds numbers, amplitudes and mean angles of attack. The results have shown a good agreement using the methodology of adjustment for the value of the parameters. DYSTOOL have demonstrated to be a promising tool for 2D airfoil unsteady aerodynamic modeling.
-
Validation of DYSTOOL for unsteady aerodynamic modeling of 2D airfoils
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
González, A; Gomez-Iradi, S; Munduate, X
2014-01-01
From the point of view of wind turbine modeling, an important group of tools is based on blade element momentum (BEM) theory using 2D aerodynamic calculations on the blade elements. Due to the importance of this sectional computation of the blades, the National Renewable Wind Energy Center of Spain (CENER) developed DYSTOOL, an aerodynamic code for 2D airfoil modeling based on the Beddoes-Leishman model. The main focus here is related to the model parameters, whose values depend on the airfoil or the operating conditions. In this work, the values of the parameters are adjusted using available experimental or CFD data. The present document is mainly related to the validation of the results of DYSTOOL for 2D airfoils. The results of the computations have been compared with unsteady experimental data of the S809 and NACA0015 profiles. Some of the cases have also been modeled using the CFD code WMB (Wind Multi Block), within the framework of a collaboration with ACCIONA Windpower. The validation has been performed using pitch oscillations with different reduced frequencies, Reynolds numbers, amplitudes and mean angles of attack. The results have shown a good agreement using the methodology of adjustment for the value of the parameters. DYSTOOL have demonstrated to be a promising tool for 2D airfoil unsteady aerodynamic modeling
-
Validation of the WATEQ4 geochemical model for uranium
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Krupka, K.M.; Jenne, E.A.; Deutsch, W.J.
1983-09-01
As part of the Geochemical Modeling and Nuclide/Rock/Groundwater Interactions Studies Program, a study was conducted to partially validate the WATEQ4 aqueous speciation-solubility geochemical model for uranium. The solubility controls determined with the WATEQ4 geochemical model were in excellent agreement with those laboratory studies in which the solids schoepite [UO 2 (OH) 2 . H 2 O], UO 2 (OH) 2 , and rutherfordine ((UO 2 CO 3 ) were identified as actual solubility controls for uranium. The results of modeling solution analyses from laboratory studies of uranyl phosphate solids, however, identified possible errors in the characterization of solids in the original solubility experiments. As part of this study, significant deficiencies in the WATEQ4 thermodynamic data base for uranium solutes and solids were corrected. Revisions included recalculation of selected uranium reactions. Additionally, thermodynamic data for the hydroxyl complexes of U(VI), including anionic (VI) species, were evaluated (to the extent permitted by the available data). Vanadium reactions were also added to the thermodynamic data base because uranium-vanadium solids can exist in natural ground-water systems. This study is only a partial validation of the WATEQ4 geochemical model because the available laboratory solubility studies do not cover the range of solid phases, alkaline pH values, and concentrations of inorganic complexing ligands needed to evaluate the potential solubility of uranium in ground waters associated with various proposed nuclear waste repositories. Further validation of this or other geochemical models for uranium will require careful determinations of uraninite solubility over the pH range of 7 to 10 under highly reducing conditions and of uranyl hydroxide and phosphate solubilities over the pH range of 7 to 10 under oxygenated conditions
-
Developing rural palliative care: validating a conceptual model.
Kelley, Mary Lou; Williams, Allison; DeMiglio, Lily; Mettam, Hilary
2011-01-01
The purpose of this research was to validate a conceptual model for developing palliative care in rural communities. This model articulates how local rural healthcare providers develop palliative care services according to four sequential phases. The model has roots in concepts of community capacity development, evolves from collaborative, generalist rural practice, and utilizes existing health services infrastructure. It addresses how rural providers manage challenges, specifically those related to: lack of resources, minimal community understanding of palliative care, health professionals' resistance, the bureaucracy of the health system, and the obstacles of providing services in rural environments. Seven semi-structured focus groups were conducted with interdisciplinary health providers in 7 rural communities in two Canadian provinces. Using a constant comparative analysis approach, focus group data were analyzed by examining participants' statements in relation to the model and comparing emerging themes in the development of rural palliative care to the elements of the model. The data validated the conceptual model as the model was able to theoretically predict and explain the experiences of the 7 rural communities that participated in the study. New emerging themes from the data elaborated existing elements in the model and informed the requirement for minor revisions. The model was validated and slightly revised, as suggested by the data. The model was confirmed as being a useful theoretical tool for conceptualizing the development of rural palliative care that is applicable in diverse rural communities.
-
A GLOBAL TWO-TEMPERATURE CORONA AND INNER HELIOSPHERE MODEL: A COMPREHENSIVE VALIDATION STUDY
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Jin, M.; Manchester, W. B.; Van der Holst, B.; Gruesbeck, J. R.; Frazin, R. A.; Landi, E.; Toth, G.; Gombosi, T. I. [Atmospheric Oceanic and Space Sciences, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 (United States); Vasquez, A. M. [Instituto de Astronomia y Fisica del Espacio (CONICET-UBA) and FCEN (UBA), CC 67, Suc 28, Ciudad de Buenos Aires (Argentina); Lamy, P. L.; Llebaria, A.; Fedorov, A., E-mail: jinmeng@umich.edu [Laboratoire d' Astrophysique de Marseille, Universite de Provence, Marseille (France)
2012-01-20
The recent solar minimum with very low activity provides us a unique opportunity for validating solar wind models. During CR2077 (2008 November 20 through December 17), the number of sunspots was near the absolute minimum of solar cycle 23. For this solar rotation, we perform a multi-spacecraft validation study for the recently developed three-dimensional, two-temperature, Alfven-wave-driven global solar wind model (a component within the Space Weather Modeling Framework). By using in situ observations from the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) A and B, Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE), and Venus Express, we compare the observed proton state (density, temperature, and velocity) and magnetic field of the heliosphere with that predicted by the model. Near the Sun, we validate the numerical model with the electron density obtained from the solar rotational tomography of Solar and Heliospheric Observatory/Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph C2 data in the range of 2.4 to 6 solar radii. Electron temperature and density are determined from differential emission measure tomography (DEMT) of STEREO A and B Extreme Ultraviolet Imager data in the range of 1.035 to 1.225 solar radii. The electron density and temperature derived from the Hinode/Extreme Ultraviolet Imaging Spectrometer data are also used to compare with the DEMT as well as the model output. Moreover, for the first time, we compare ionic charge states of carbon, oxygen, silicon, and iron observed in situ with the ACE/Solar Wind Ion Composition Spectrometer with those predicted by our model. The validation results suggest that most of the model outputs for CR2077 can fit the observations very well. Based on this encouraging result, we therefore expect great improvement for the future modeling of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and CME-driven shocks.
-
Validation Testing of a Peridynamic Impact Damage Model Using NASA's Micro-Particle Gun
Baber, Forrest E.; Zelinski, Brian J.; Guven, Ibrahim; Gray, Perry
2017-01-01
Through a collaborative effort between the Virginia Commonwealth University and Raytheon, a peridynamic model for sand impact damage has been developed1-3. Model development has focused on simulating impacts of sand particles on ZnS traveling at velocities consistent with aircraft take-off and landing speeds. The model reproduces common features of impact damage including pit and radial cracks, and, under some conditions, lateral cracks. This study focuses on a preliminary validation exercise in which simulation results from the peridynamic model are compared to a limited experimental data set generated by NASA's recently developed micro-particle gun (MPG). The MPG facility measures the dimensions and incoming and rebound velocities of the impact particles. It also links each particle to a specific impact site and its associated damage. In this validation exercise parameters of the peridynamic model are adjusted to fit the experimentally observed pit diameter, average length of radial cracks and rebound velocities for 4 impacts of 300 µm glass beads on ZnS. Results indicate that a reasonable fit of these impact characteristics can be obtained by suitable adjustment of the peridynamic input parameters, demonstrating that the MPG can be used effectively as a validation tool for impact modeling and that the peridynamic sand impact model described herein possesses not only a qualitative but also a quantitative ability to simulate sand impact events.
-
Concepts of Model Verification and Validation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Thacker, B.H.; Doebling, S.W.; Hemez, F.M.; Anderson, M.C.; Pepin, J.E.; Rodriguez, E.A.
2004-01-01
Model verification and validation (VandV) is an enabling methodology for the development of computational models that can be used to make engineering predictions with quantified confidence. Model VandV procedures are needed by government and industry to reduce the time, cost, and risk associated with full-scale testing of products, materials, and weapon systems. Quantifying the confidence and predictive accuracy of model calculations provides the decision-maker with the information necessary for making high-consequence decisions. The development of guidelines and procedures for conducting a model VandV program are currently being defined by a broad spectrum of researchers. This report reviews the concepts involved in such a program. Model VandV is a current topic of great interest to both government and industry. In response to a ban on the production of new strategic weapons and nuclear testing, the Department of Energy (DOE) initiated the Science-Based Stockpile Stewardship Program (SSP). An objective of the SSP is to maintain a high level of confidence in the safety, reliability, and performance of the existing nuclear weapons stockpile in the absence of nuclear testing. This objective has challenged the national laboratories to develop high-confidence tools and methods that can be used to provide credible models needed for stockpile certification via numerical simulation. There has been a significant increase in activity recently to define VandV methods and procedures. The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) Modeling and Simulation Office (DMSO) is working to develop fundamental concepts and terminology for VandV applied to high-level systems such as ballistic missile defense and battle management simulations. The American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) has recently formed a Standards Committee for the development of VandV procedures for computational solid mechanics models. The Defense Nuclear Facilities Safety Board (DNFSB) has been a proponent of model
-
Using the mouse to model human disease: increasing validity and reproducibility
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Monica J. Justice
2016-02-01
Full Text Available Experiments that use the mouse as a model for disease have recently come under scrutiny because of the repeated failure of data, particularly derived from preclinical studies, to be replicated or translated to humans. The usefulness of mouse models has been questioned because of irreproducibility and poor recapitulation of human conditions. Newer studies, however, point to bias in reporting results and improper data analysis as key factors that limit reproducibility and validity of preclinical mouse research. Inaccurate and incomplete descriptions of experimental conditions also contribute. Here, we provide guidance on best practice in mouse experimentation, focusing on appropriate selection and validation of the model, sources of variation and their influence on phenotypic outcomes, minimum requirements for control sets, and the importance of rigorous statistics. Our goal is to raise the standards in mouse disease modeling to enhance reproducibility, reliability and clinical translation of findings.
-
Verification and validation of models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Herbert, A.W.; Hodgkinson, D.P.; Jackson, C.P.; Lever, D.A.; Robinson, P.C.
1986-12-01
The numerical accuracy of the computer models for groundwater flow and radionuclide transport that are to be used in repository safety assessment must be tested, and their ability to describe experimental data assessed: they must be verified and validated respectively. Also appropriate ways to use the codes in performance assessments, taking into account uncertainties in present data and future conditions, must be studied. These objectives are being met by participation in international exercises, by developing bench-mark problems, and by analysing experiments. In particular the project has funded participation in the HYDROCOIN project for groundwater flow models, the Natural Analogues Working Group, and the INTRAVAL project for geosphere models. (author)
-
A multibody motorcycle model with rigid-ring tyres: formulation and validation
Leonelli, Luca; Mancinelli, Nicolò
2015-06-01
The aim of this paper is the development and validation of a three-dimensional multibody motorcycle model including a rigid-ring tyre model, taking into account both the slopes and elevation of the road surface. In order to achieve accurate assessment of ride and handling performances of a road racing motorcycle, a tyre model capable of reproducing the dynamic response to actual road excitation is required. While a number of vehicle models with such feature are available for car application, the extension to the motorcycle modelling has not been addressed yet. To do so, a novel parametrisation for the general motorcycle kinematics is proposed, using a mixed reference point and relative coordinates approach. The resulting description, developed in terms of dependent coordinates, makes it possible to include the rigid-ring kinematics as well as road elevation and slopes, without affecting computational efficiency. The equations of motion for the whole multibody system are derived symbolically and the constraint equations arising from the dependent coordinate formulation are handled using the position and velocity vector projection technique. The resulting system of equations is integrated in time domain using a standard ordinary differential equation (ODE) algorithm. Finally, the model is validated with respect to experimentally measured data in both time and frequency domains.
-
2014-01-01
Background Before considering whether to use a multivariable (diagnostic or prognostic) prediction model, it is essential that its performance be evaluated in data that were not used to develop the model (referred to as external validation). We critically appraised the methodological conduct and reporting of external validation studies of multivariable prediction models. Methods We conducted a systematic review of articles describing some form of external validation of one or more multivariable prediction models indexed in PubMed core clinical journals published in 2010. Study data were extracted in duplicate on design, sample size, handling of missing data, reference to the original study developing the prediction models and predictive performance measures. Results 11,826 articles were identified and 78 were included for full review, which described the evaluation of 120 prediction models. in participant data that were not used to develop the model. Thirty-three articles described both the development of a prediction model and an evaluation of its performance on a separate dataset, and 45 articles described only the evaluation of an existing published prediction model on another dataset. Fifty-seven percent of the prediction models were presented and evaluated as simplified scoring systems. Sixteen percent of articles failed to report the number of outcome events in the validation datasets. Fifty-four percent of studies made no explicit mention of missing data. Sixty-seven percent did not report evaluating model calibration whilst most studies evaluated model discrimination. It was often unclear whether the reported performance measures were for the full regression model or for the simplified models. Conclusions The vast majority of studies describing some form of external validation of a multivariable prediction model were poorly reported with key details frequently not presented. The validation studies were characterised by poor design, inappropriate handling
-
Empirical Validation of a Thermal Model of a Complex Roof Including Phase Change Materials
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Stéphane Guichard
2015-12-01
Full Text Available This paper deals with the empirical validation of a building thermal model of a complex roof including a phase change material (PCM. A mathematical model dedicated to PCMs based on the heat apparent capacity method was implemented in a multi-zone building simulation code, the aim being to increase the understanding of the thermal behavior of the whole building with PCM technologies. In order to empirically validate the model, the methodology is based both on numerical and experimental studies. A parametric sensitivity analysis was performed and a set of parameters of the thermal model has been identified for optimization. The use of the generic optimization program called GenOpt® coupled to the building simulation code enabled to determine the set of adequate parameters. We first present the empirical validation methodology and main results of previous work. We then give an overview of GenOpt® and its coupling with the building simulation code. Finally, once the optimization results are obtained, comparisons of the thermal predictions with measurements are found to be acceptable and are presented.
-
Comparative calculations and validation studies with atmospheric dispersion models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Paesler-Sauer, J.
1986-11-01
This report presents the results of an intercomparison of different mesoscale dispersion models and measured data of tracer experiments. The types of models taking part in the intercomparison are Gaussian-type, numerical Eulerian, and Lagrangian dispersion models. They are suited for the calculation of the atmospherical transport of radionuclides released from a nuclear installation. For the model intercomparison artificial meteorological situations were defined and corresponding arithmetical problems were formulated. For the purpose of model validation real dispersion situations of tracer experiments were used as input data for model calculations; in these cases calculated and measured time-integrated concentrations close to the ground are compared. Finally a valuation of the models concerning their efficiency in solving the problems is carried out by the aid of objective methods. (orig./HP) [de
-
Groundwater Model Validation for the Project Shoal Area, Corrective Action Unit 447
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Hassan, Ahmed [Desert Research Inst. (DRI), Las Vegas, NV (United States). Division of Hydrologic Sciences; Chapman, Jenny [Desert Research Inst. (DRI), Las Vegas, NV (United States). Division of Hydrologic Sciences; Lyles, Brad [Desert Research Inst. (DRI), Las Vegas, NV (United States). Division of Hydrologic Sciences
2008-05-19
Stoller has examined newly collected water level data in multiple wells at the Shoal site. On the basis of these data and information presented in the report, we are currently unable to confirm that the model is successfully validated. Most of our concerns regarding the model stem from two findings: (1) measured water level data do not provide clear evidence of a prevailing lateral flow direction; and (2) the groundwater flow system has been and continues to be in a transient state, which contrasts with assumed steady-state conditions in the model. The results of DRI's model validation efforts and observations made regarding water level behavior are discussed in the following sections. A summary of our conclusions and recommendations for a path forward are also provided in this letter report.
-
SPR Hydrostatic Column Model Verification and Validation.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Bettin, Giorgia [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Lord, David [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Rudeen, David Keith [Gram, Inc. Albuquerque, NM (United States)
2015-10-01
A Hydrostatic Column Model (HCM) was developed to help differentiate between normal "tight" well behavior and small-leak behavior under nitrogen for testing the pressure integrity of crude oil storage wells at the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve. This effort was motivated by steady, yet distinct, pressure behavior of a series of Big Hill caverns that have been placed under nitrogen for extended period of time. This report describes the HCM model, its functional requirements, the model structure and the verification and validation process. Different modes of operation are also described, which illustrate how the software can be used to model extended nitrogen monitoring and Mechanical Integrity Tests by predicting wellhead pressures along with nitrogen interface movements. Model verification has shown that the program runs correctly and it is implemented as intended. The cavern BH101 long term nitrogen test was used to validate the model which showed very good agreement with measured data. This supports the claim that the model is, in fact, capturing the relevant physical phenomena and can be used to make accurate predictions of both wellhead pressure and interface movements.
-
Refining and validating a conceptual model of Clinical Nurse Leader integrated care delivery.
Bender, Miriam; Williams, Marjory; Su, Wei; Hites, Lisle
2017-02-01
To empirically validate a conceptual model of Clinical Nurse Leader integrated care delivery. There is limited evidence of frontline care delivery models that consistently achieve quality patient outcomes. Clinical Nurse Leader integrated care delivery is a promising nursing model with a growing record of success. However, theoretical clarity is necessary to generate causal evidence of effectiveness. Sequential mixed methods. A preliminary Clinical Nurse Leader practice model was refined and survey items developed to correspond with model domains, using focus groups and a Delphi process with a multi-professional expert panel. The survey was administered in 2015 to clinicians and administrators involved in Clinical Nurse Leader initiatives. Confirmatory factor analysis and structural equation modelling were used to validate the measurement and model structure. Final sample n = 518. The model incorporates 13 components organized into five conceptual domains: 'Readiness for Clinical Nurse Leader integrated care delivery'; 'Structuring Clinical Nurse Leader integrated care delivery'; 'Clinical Nurse Leader Practice: Continuous Clinical Leadership'; 'Outcomes of Clinical Nurse Leader integrated care delivery'; and 'Value'. Sample data had good fit with specified model and two-level measurement structure. All hypothesized pathways were significant, with strong coefficients suggesting good fit between theorized and observed path relationships. The validated model articulates an explanatory pathway of Clinical Nurse Leader integrated care delivery, including Clinical Nurse Leader practices that result in improved care dynamics and patient outcomes. The validated model provides a basis for testing in practice to generate evidence that can be deployed across the healthcare spectrum. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
-
Development and validation of a mass casualty conceptual model.
Culley, Joan M; Effken, Judith A
2010-03-01
To develop and validate a conceptual model that provides a framework for the development and evaluation of information systems for mass casualty events. The model was designed based on extant literature and existing theoretical models. A purposeful sample of 18 experts validated the model. Open-ended questions, as well as a 7-point Likert scale, were used to measure expert consensus on the importance of each construct and its relationship in the model and the usefulness of the model to future research. Computer-mediated applications were used to facilitate a modified Delphi technique through which a panel of experts provided validation for the conceptual model. Rounds of questions continued until consensus was reached, as measured by an interquartile range (no more than 1 scale point for each item); stability (change in the distribution of responses less than 15% between rounds); and percent agreement (70% or greater) for indicator questions. Two rounds of the Delphi process were needed to satisfy the criteria for consensus or stability related to the constructs, relationships, and indicators in the model. The panel reached consensus or sufficient stability to retain all 10 constructs, 9 relationships, and 39 of 44 indicators. Experts viewed the model as useful (mean of 5.3 on a 7-point scale). Validation of the model provides the first step in understanding the context in which mass casualty events take place and identifying variables that impact outcomes of care. This study provides a foundation for understanding the complexity of mass casualty care, the roles that nurses play in mass casualty events, and factors that must be considered in designing and evaluating information-communication systems to support effective triage under these conditions.
-
Copenhagen Psychosocial Questionnaire - A validation study using the Job Demand-Resources model.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Hanne Berthelsen
Full Text Available This study aims at investigating the nomological validity of the Copenhagen Psychosocial Questionnaire (COPSOQ II by using an extension of the Job Demands-Resources (JD-R model with aspects of work ability as outcome.The study design is cross-sectional. All staff working at public dental organizations in four regions of Sweden were invited to complete an electronic questionnaire (75% response rate, n = 1345. The questionnaire was based on COPSOQ II scales, the Utrecht Work Engagement scale, and the one-item Work Ability Score in combination with a proprietary item. The data was analysed by Structural Equation Modelling.This study contributed to the literature by showing that: A The scale characteristics were satisfactory and the construct validity of COPSOQ instrument could be integrated in the JD-R framework; B Job resources arising from leadership may be a driver of the two processes included in the JD-R model; and C Both the health impairment and motivational processes were associated with WA, and the results suggested that leadership may impact WA, in particularly by securing task resources.In conclusion, the nomological validity of COPSOQ was supported as the JD-R model-can be operationalized by the instrument. This may be helpful for transferral of complex survey results and work life theories to practitioners in the field.
-
Validating a model that predicts daily growth and feed quality of New Zealand dairy pastures.
Woodward, S J
2001-09-01
The Pasture Quality (PQ) model is a simple, mechanistic, dynamical system model that was designed to capture the essential biological processes in grazed grass-clover pasture, and to be optimised to derive improved grazing strategies for New Zealand dairy farms. While the individual processes represented in the model (photosynthesis, tissue growth, flowering, leaf death, decomposition, worms) were based on experimental data, this did not guarantee that the assembled model would accurately predict the behaviour of the system as a whole (i.e., pasture growth and quality). Validation of the whole model was thus a priority, since any strategy derived from the model could impact a farm business in the order of thousands of dollars per annum if adopted. This paper describes the process of defining performance criteria for the model, obtaining suitable data to test the model, and carrying out the validation analysis. The validation process highlighted a number of weaknesses in the model, which will lead to the model being improved. As a result, the model's utility will be enhanced. Furthermore, validation was found to have an unexpected additional benefit, in that despite the model's poor initial performance, support was generated for the model among field scientists involved in the wider project.
-
Geochemistry Model Validation Report: External Accumulation Model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zarrabi, K.
2001-01-01
The purpose of this Analysis and Modeling Report (AMR) is to validate the External Accumulation Model that predicts accumulation of fissile materials in fractures and lithophysae in the rock beneath a degrading waste package (WP) in the potential monitored geologic repository at Yucca Mountain. (Lithophysae are voids in the rock having concentric shells of finely crystalline alkali feldspar, quartz, and other materials that were formed due to entrapped gas that later escaped, DOE 1998, p. A-25.) The intended use of this model is to estimate the quantities of external accumulation of fissile material for use in external criticality risk assessments for different types of degrading WPs: U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Spent Nuclear Fuel (SNF) codisposed with High Level Waste (HLW) glass, commercial SNF, and Immobilized Plutonium Ceramic (Pu-ceramic) codisposed with HLW glass. The scope of the model validation is to (1) describe the model and the parameters used to develop the model, (2) provide rationale for selection of the parameters by comparisons with measured values, and (3) demonstrate that the parameters chosen are the most conservative selection for external criticality risk calculations. To demonstrate the applicability of the model, a Pu-ceramic WP is used as an example. The model begins with a source term from separately documented EQ6 calculations; where the source term is defined as the composition versus time of the water flowing out of a breached waste package (WP). Next, PHREEQC, is used to simulate the transport and interaction of the source term with the resident water and fractured tuff below the repository. In these simulations the primary mechanism for accumulation is mixing of the high pH, actinide-laden source term with resident water; thus lowering the pH values sufficiently for fissile minerals to become insoluble and precipitate. In the final section of the model, the outputs from PHREEQC, are processed to produce mass of accumulation
-
Model-based verification and validation of the SMAP uplink processes
Khan, M. O.; Dubos, G. F.; Tirona, J.; Standley, S.
Model-Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) is being used increasingly within the spacecraft design community because of its benefits when compared to document-based approaches. As the complexity of projects expands dramatically with continually increasing computational power and technology infusion, the time and effort needed for verification and validation (V& V) increases geometrically. Using simulation to perform design validation with system-level models earlier in the life cycle stands to bridge the gap between design of the system (based on system-level requirements) and verifying those requirements/validating the system as a whole. This case study stands as an example of how a project can validate a system-level design earlier in the project life cycle than traditional V& V processes by using simulation on a system model. Specifically, this paper describes how simulation was added to a system model of the Soil Moisture Active-Passive (SMAP) mission's uplink process. Also discussed are the advantages and disadvantages of the methods employed and the lessons learned; which are intended to benefit future model-based and simulation-based development efforts.
-
Design-validation of a hand exoskeleton using musculoskeletal modeling.
Hansen, Clint; Gosselin, Florian; Ben Mansour, Khalil; Devos, Pierre; Marin, Frederic
2018-04-01
Exoskeletons are progressively reaching homes and workplaces, allowing interaction with virtual environments, remote control of robots, or assisting human operators in carrying heavy loads. Their design is however still a challenge as these robots, being mechanically linked to the operators who wear them, have to meet ergonomic constraints besides usual robotic requirements in terms of workspace, speed, or efforts. They have in particular to fit the anthropometry and mobility of their users. This traditionally results in numerous prototypes which are progressively fitted to each individual person. In this paper, we propose instead to validate the design of a hand exoskeleton in a fully digital environment, without the need for a physical prototype. The purpose of this study is thus to examine whether finger kinematics are altered when using a given hand exoskeleton. Therefore, user specific musculoskeletal models were created and driven by a motion capture system to evaluate the fingers' joint kinematics when performing two industrial related tasks. The kinematic chain of the exoskeleton was added to the musculoskeletal models and its compliance with the hand movements was evaluated. Our results show that the proposed exoskeleton design does not influence fingers' joints angles, the coefficient of determination between the model with and without exoskeleton being consistently high (R 2 ¯=0.93) and the nRMSE consistently low (nRMSE¯ = 5.42°). These results are promising and this approach combining musculoskeletal and robotic modeling driven by motion capture data could be a key factor in the ergonomics validation of the design of orthotic devices and exoskeletons prior to manufacturing. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
-
Gap conductance model validation in the TASS/SMR-S code
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ahn, Sang-Jun; Yang, Soo-Hyung; Chung, Young-Jong; Bae, Kyoo-Hwan; Lee, Won-Jae
2011-01-01
An advanced integral pressurized water reactor, SMART (System-Integrated Modular Advanced ReacTor) has been developed by KAERI (Korea Atomic Energy Research and Institute). The purposes of the SMART are sea water desalination and an electricity generation. For the safety evaluation and performance analysis of the SMART, TASS/SMR-S (Transient And Setpoint Simulation/System-integrated Modular Reactor) code, has been developed. In this paper, the gap conductance model for the calculation of gap conductance has been validated by using another system code, MARS code, and experimental results. In the validation, the behaviors of fuel temperature and gap width are selected as the major parameters. According to the evaluation results, the TASS/SMR-S code predicts well the behaviors of fuel temperatures and gap width variation, compared to the MARS calculation results and experimental data. (author)
-
Image decomposition as a tool for validating stress analysis models
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mottershead J.
2010-06-01
Full Text Available It is good practice to validate analytical and numerical models used in stress analysis for engineering design by comparison with measurements obtained from real components either in-service or in the laboratory. In reality, this critical step is often neglected or reduced to placing a single strain gage at the predicted hot-spot of stress. Modern techniques of optical analysis allow full-field maps of displacement, strain and, or stress to be obtained from real components with relative ease and at modest cost. However, validations continued to be performed only at predicted and, or observed hot-spots and most of the wealth of data is ignored. It is proposed that image decomposition methods, commonly employed in techniques such as fingerprinting and iris recognition, can be employed to validate stress analysis models by comparing all of the key features in the data from the experiment and the model. Image decomposition techniques such as Zernike moments and Fourier transforms have been used to decompose full-field distributions for strain generated from optical techniques such as digital image correlation and thermoelastic stress analysis as well as from analytical and numerical models by treating the strain distributions as images. The result of the decomposition is 101 to 102 image descriptors instead of the 105 or 106 pixels in the original data. As a consequence, it is relatively easy to make a statistical comparison of the image descriptors from the experiment and from the analytical/numerical model and to provide a quantitative assessment of the stress analysis.
-
Validation of Computer Models for Homeland Security Purposes
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Schweppe, John E.; Ely, James; Kouzes, Richard T.; McConn, Ronald J.; Pagh, Richard T.; Robinson, Sean M.; Siciliano, Edward R.; Borgardt, James D.; Bender, Sarah E.; Earnhart, Alison H.
2005-01-01
At Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, we are developing computer models of radiation portal monitors for screening vehicles and cargo. Detailed models of the radiation detection equipment, vehicles, cargo containers, cargos, and radioactive sources have been created. These are used to determine the optimal configuration of detectors and the best alarm algorithms for the detection of items of interest while minimizing nuisance alarms due to the presence of legitimate radioactive material in the commerce stream. Most of the modeling is done with the Monte Carlo code MCNP to describe the transport of gammas and neutrons from extended sources through large, irregularly shaped absorbers to large detectors. A fundamental prerequisite is the validation of the computational models against field measurements. We describe the first step of this validation process, the comparison of the models to measurements with bare static sources
-
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Wingefors, S.; Andersson, J.; Norrby, S. [Swedish Nuclear Power lnspectorate, Stockholm (Sweden). Office of Nuclear Waste Safety; Eisenberg, N.A.; Lee, M.P.; Federline, M.V. [U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, DC (United States). Office of Nuclear Material Safety and Safeguards; Sagar, B.; Wittmeyer, G.W. [Center for Nuclear Waste Regulatory Analyses, San Antonio, TX (United States)
1999-03-01
Validation (or confidence building) should be an important aspect of the regulatory uses of mathematical models in the safety assessments of geologic repositories for the disposal of spent nuclear fuel and other high-level radioactive wastes (HLW). A substantial body of literature exists indicating the manner in which scientific validation of models is usually pursued. Because models for a geologic repository performance assessment cannot be tested over the spatial scales of interest and long time periods for which the models will make estimates of performance, the usual avenue for model validation- that is, comparison of model estimates with actual data at the space-time scales of interest- is precluded. Further complicating the model validation process in HLW programs are the uncertainties inherent in describing the geologic complexities of potential disposal sites, and their interactions with the engineered system, with a limited set of generally imprecise data, making it difficult to discriminate between model discrepancy and inadequacy of input data. A successful strategy for model validation, therefore, should attempt to recognize these difficulties, address their resolution, and document the resolution in a careful manner. The end result of validation efforts should be a documented enhancement of confidence in the model to an extent that the model's results can aid in regulatory decision-making. The level of validation needed should be determined by the intended uses of these models, rather than by the ideal of validation of a scientific theory. This white Paper presents a model validation strategy that can be implemented in a regulatory environment. It was prepared jointly by staff members of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate-SKI. This document should not be viewed as, and is not intended to be formal guidance or as a staff position on this matter. Rather, based on a review of the literature and previous
-
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Wingefors, S.; Andersson, J.; Norrby, S.
1999-03-01
Validation (or confidence building) should be an important aspect of the regulatory uses of mathematical models in the safety assessments of geologic repositories for the disposal of spent nuclear fuel and other high-level radioactive wastes (HLW). A substantial body of literature exists indicating the manner in which scientific validation of models is usually pursued. Because models for a geologic repository performance assessment cannot be tested over the spatial scales of interest and long time periods for which the models will make estimates of performance, the usual avenue for model validation- that is, comparison of model estimates with actual data at the space-time scales of interest- is precluded. Further complicating the model validation process in HLW programs are the uncertainties inherent in describing the geologic complexities of potential disposal sites, and their interactions with the engineered system, with a limited set of generally imprecise data, making it difficult to discriminate between model discrepancy and inadequacy of input data. A successful strategy for model validation, therefore, should attempt to recognize these difficulties, address their resolution, and document the resolution in a careful manner. The end result of validation efforts should be a documented enhancement of confidence in the model to an extent that the model's results can aid in regulatory decision-making. The level of validation needed should be determined by the intended uses of these models, rather than by the ideal of validation of a scientific theory. This white Paper presents a model validation strategy that can be implemented in a regulatory environment. It was prepared jointly by staff members of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate-SKI. This document should not be viewed as, and is not intended to be formal guidance or as a staff position on this matter. Rather, based on a review of the literature and previous
-
Utilization of paleoclimate results to validate projections of a future greenhouse warming
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Crowley, T.J.
1990-01-01
Paleoclimate data provide a rich source of information for testing projections of future greenhouse trends. This paper summarizes the present state-of-the-art as to assessments of two important climate problems. (1) Validation of climate models - The same climate models that have been used to make greenhouse forecasts have also been used for paleoclimate simulations. Comparisons of model results and observations indicate some impressive successes but also some cases where there are significant divergences between models and observations. However, special conditions associated with the impressive successes could lead to a false confidence in the models; disagreements are a topic of greater concern. It remains to be determined whether the disagreements are due to model limitations or uncertainties in geologic data. (2) Role of CO 2 as a significant climate feedback: Paleoclimate studies indicate that the climate system is generally more sensitive than our ability to model it. Addition or subtraction of CO 2 leads to a closer agreement between models and observations. In this respect paleoclimate results in general support the conclusion that CO 2 is an important climate feedback, with the magnitude of the feedback approximately comparable to the sensitivity of present climate models. If the CO 2 projections are correct, comparison of the future warming with past warm periods indicate that there may be no geologic analogs for a future warming; the future greenhouse climate may represent a unique climate realization in earth history
-
Methods for Geometric Data Validation of 3d City Models
Wagner, D.; Alam, N.; Wewetzer, M.; Pries, M.; Coors, V.
2015-12-01
are detected, among additional criteria. Self-intersection might lead to different results, e.g. intersection points, lines or areas. Depending on the geometric constellation, they might represent gaps between bounding polygons of the solids, overlaps, or violations of the 2-manifoldness. Not least due to the floating point problem in digital numbers, tolerances must be considered in some algorithms, e.g. planarity and solid self-intersection. Effects of different tolerance values and their handling is discussed; recommendations for suitable values are given. The goal of the paper is to give a clear understanding of geometric validation in the context of 3D city models. This should also enable the data holder to get a better comprehension of the validation results and their consequences on the deployment fields of the validated data set.
-
Analytical thermal model validation for Cassini radioisotope thermoelectric generator
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lin, E.I.
1997-01-01
The Saturn-bound Cassini spacecraft is designed to rely, without precedent, on the waste heat from its three radioisotope thermoelectric generators (RTGs) to warm the propulsion module subsystem, and the RTG end dome temperature is a key determining factor of the amount of waste heat delivered. A previously validated SINDA thermal model of the RTG was the sole guide to understanding its complex thermal behavior, but displayed large discrepancies against some initial thermal development test data. A careful revalidation effort led to significant modifications and adjustments of the model, which result in a doubling of the radiative heat transfer from the heat source support assemblies to the end domes and bring up the end dome and flange temperature predictions to within 2 C of the pertinent test data. The increased inboard end dome temperature has a considerable impact on thermal control of the spacecraft central body. The validation process offers an example of physically-driven analytical model calibration with test data from not only an electrical simulator but also a nuclear-fueled flight unit, and has established the end dome temperatures of a flight RTG where no in-flight or ground-test data existed before
-
Experimental validation of a thermodynamic boiler model under steady state and dynamic conditions
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Carlon, Elisa; Verma, Vijay Kumar; Schwarz, Markus; Golicza, Laszlo; Prada, Alessandro; Baratieri, Marco; Haslinger, Walter; Schmidl, Christoph
2015-01-01
Highlights: • Laboratory tests on two commercially available pellet boilers. • Steady state and a dynamic load cycle tests. • Pellet boiler model calibration based on data registered in stationary operation. • Boiler model validation with reference to both stationary and dynamic operation. • Validated model suitable for coupled simulation of building and heating system. - Abstract: Nowadays dynamic building simulation is an essential tool for the design of heating systems for residential buildings. The simulation of buildings heated by biomass systems, first of all needs detailed boiler models, capable of simulating the boiler both as a stand-alone appliance and as a system component. This paper presents the calibration and validation of a boiler model by means of laboratory tests. The chosen model, i.e. TRNSYS “Type 869”, has been validated for two commercially available pellet boilers of 6 and 12 kW nominal capacities. Two test methods have been applied: the first is a steady state test at nominal load and the second is a load cycle test including stationary operation at different loads as well as transient operation. The load cycle test is representative of the boiler operation in the field and characterises the boiler’s stationary and dynamic behaviour. The model had been calibrated based on laboratory data registered during stationary operation at different loads and afterwards it was validated by simulating both the stationary and the dynamic tests. Selected parameters for the validation were the heat transfer rates to water and the water temperature profiles inside the boiler and at the boiler outlet. Modelling results showed better agreement with experimental data during stationary operation rather than during dynamic operation. Heat transfer rates to water were predicted with a maximum deviation of 10% during the stationary operation, and a maximum deviation of 30% during the dynamic load cycle. However, for both operational regimes the
-
Models, validation, and applied geochemistry: Issues in science, communication, and philosophy
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kirk Nordstrom, D.
2012-01-01
Models have become so fashionable that many scientists and engineers cannot imagine working without them. The predominant use of computer codes to execute model calculations has blurred the distinction between code and model. The recent controversy regarding model validation has brought into question what we mean by a ‘model’ and by ‘validation.’ It has become apparent that the usual meaning of validation may be common in engineering practice and seems useful in legal practice but it is contrary to scientific practice and brings into question our understanding of science and how it can best be applied to such problems as hazardous waste characterization, remediation, and aqueous geochemistry in general. This review summarizes arguments against using the phrase model validation and examines efforts to validate models for high-level radioactive waste management and for permitting and monitoring open-pit mines. Part of the controversy comes from a misunderstanding of ‘prediction’ and the need to distinguish logical from temporal prediction. Another problem stems from the difference in the engineering approach contrasted with the scientific approach. The reductionist influence on the way we approach environmental investigations also limits our ability to model the interconnected nature of reality. Guidelines are proposed to improve our perceptions and proper utilization of models. Use of the word ‘validation’ is strongly discouraged when discussing model reliability.
-
42 CFR 478.15 - QIO review of changes resulting from DRG validation.
2010-10-01
... 42 Public Health 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false QIO review of changes resulting from DRG validation... review of changes resulting from DRG validation. (a) General rules. (1) A provider or practitioner dissatisfied with a change to the diagnostic or procedural coding information made by a QIO as a result of DRG...
-
Basith, Abdul; Prakoso, Yudhono; Kongko, Widjo
2017-07-01
A tsunami model using high resolution geometric data is indispensable in efforts to tsunami mitigation, especially in tsunami prone areas. It is one of the factors that affect the accuracy results of numerical modeling of tsunami. Sadeng Port is a new infrastructure in the Southern Coast of Java which could potentially hit by massive tsunami from seismic gap. This paper discusses validation and error estimation of tsunami model created using high resolution geometric data in Sadeng Port. Tsunami model validation uses the height wave of Tsunami Pangandaran 2006 recorded by Tide Gauge of Sadeng. Tsunami model will be used to accommodate the tsunami numerical modeling involves the parameters of earthquake-tsunami which is derived from the seismic gap. The validation results using t-test (student) shows that the height of the tsunami modeling results and observation in Tide Gauge of Sadeng are considered statistically equal at 95% confidence level and the value of the RMSE and NRMSE are 0.428 m and 22.12%, while the differences of tsunami wave travel time is 12 minutes.
-
P.C. Austin (Peter); D. van Klaveren (David); Y. Vergouwe (Yvonne); D. Nieboer (Daan); D.S. Lee (Douglas); E.W. Steyerberg (Ewout)
2016-01-01
textabstractObjective: Validation of clinical prediction models traditionally refers to the assessment of model performance in new patients. We studied different approaches to geographic and temporal validation in the setting of multicenter data from two time periods. Study Design and Setting: We
-
Validation of the Colorado Retinopathy of Prematurity Screening Model.
McCourt, Emily A; Ying, Gui-Shuang; Lynch, Anne M; Palestine, Alan G; Wagner, Brandie D; Wymore, Erica; Tomlinson, Lauren A; Binenbaum, Gil
2018-04-01
The Colorado Retinopathy of Prematurity (CO-ROP) model uses birth weight, gestational age, and weight gain at the first month of life (WG-28) to predict risk of severe retinopathy of prematurity (ROP). In previous validation studies, the model performed very well, predicting virtually all cases of severe ROP and potentially reducing the number of infants who need ROP examinations, warranting validation in a larger, more diverse population. To validate the performance of the CO-ROP model in a large multicenter cohort. This study is a secondary analysis of data from the Postnatal Growth and Retinopathy of Prematurity (G-ROP) Study, a retrospective multicenter cohort study conducted in 29 hospitals in the United States and Canada between January 2006 and June 2012 of 6351 premature infants who received ROP examinations. Sensitivity and specificity for severe (early treatment of ROP [ETROP] type 1 or 2) ROP, and reduction in infants receiving examinations. The CO-ROP model was applied to the infants in the G-ROP data set with all 3 data points (infants would have received examinations if they met all 3 criteria: birth weight, large validation cohort. The model requires all 3 criteria to be met to signal a need for examinations, but some infants with a birth weight or gestational age above the thresholds developed severe ROP. Most of these infants who were not detected by the CO-ROP model had obvious deviation in expected weight trajectories or nonphysiologic weight gain. These findings suggest that the CO-ROP model needs to be revised before considering implementation into clinical practice.
-
Proost, J. H.
Objective: Limited sampling models (LSM) for estimating AUC in therapeutic drug monitoring are usually validated in a separate group of patients, according to published guidelines. The aim of this study is to evaluate the validation of LSM by comparing independent validation with cross-validation
-
Experimental validation of solid rocket motor damping models
Riso, Cristina; Fransen, Sebastiaan; Mastroddi, Franco; Coppotelli, Giuliano; Trequattrini, Francesco; De Vivo, Alessio
2017-12-01
In design and certification of spacecraft, payload/launcher coupled load analyses are performed to simulate the satellite dynamic environment. To obtain accurate predictions, the system damping properties must be properly taken into account in the finite element model used for coupled load analysis. This is typically done using a structural damping characterization in the frequency domain, which is not applicable in the time domain. Therefore, the structural damping matrix of the system must be converted into an equivalent viscous damping matrix when a transient coupled load analysis is performed. This paper focuses on the validation of equivalent viscous damping methods for dynamically condensed finite element models via correlation with experimental data for a realistic structure representative of a slender launch vehicle with solid rocket motors. A second scope of the paper is to investigate how to conveniently choose a single combination of Young's modulus and structural damping coefficient—complex Young's modulus—to approximate the viscoelastic behavior of a solid propellant material in the frequency band of interest for coupled load analysis. A scaled-down test article inspired to the Z9-ignition Vega launcher configuration is designed, manufactured, and experimentally tested to obtain data for validation of the equivalent viscous damping methods. The Z9-like component of the test article is filled with a viscoelastic material representative of the Z9 solid propellant that is also preliminarily tested to investigate the dependency of the complex Young's modulus on the excitation frequency and provide data for the test article finite element model. Experimental results from seismic and shock tests performed on the test configuration are correlated with numerical results from frequency and time domain analyses carried out on its dynamically condensed finite element model to assess the applicability of different equivalent viscous damping methods to describe
-
Experimental validation of solid rocket motor damping models
Riso, Cristina; Fransen, Sebastiaan; Mastroddi, Franco; Coppotelli, Giuliano; Trequattrini, Francesco; De Vivo, Alessio
2018-06-01
In design and certification of spacecraft, payload/launcher coupled load analyses are performed to simulate the satellite dynamic environment. To obtain accurate predictions, the system damping properties must be properly taken into account in the finite element model used for coupled load analysis. This is typically done using a structural damping characterization in the frequency domain, which is not applicable in the time domain. Therefore, the structural damping matrix of the system must be converted into an equivalent viscous damping matrix when a transient coupled load analysis is performed. This paper focuses on the validation of equivalent viscous damping methods for dynamically condensed finite element models via correlation with experimental data for a realistic structure representative of a slender launch vehicle with solid rocket motors. A second scope of the paper is to investigate how to conveniently choose a single combination of Young's modulus and structural damping coefficient—complex Young's modulus—to approximate the viscoelastic behavior of a solid propellant material in the frequency band of interest for coupled load analysis. A scaled-down test article inspired to the Z9-ignition Vega launcher configuration is designed, manufactured, and experimentally tested to obtain data for validation of the equivalent viscous damping methods. The Z9-like component of the test article is filled with a viscoelastic material representative of the Z9 solid propellant that is also preliminarily tested to investigate the dependency of the complex Young's modulus on the excitation frequency and provide data for the test article finite element model. Experimental results from seismic and shock tests performed on the test configuration are correlated with numerical results from frequency and time domain analyses carried out on its dynamically condensed finite element model to assess the applicability of different equivalent viscous damping methods to describe
-
Experimental Validation of Various Temperature Modells for Semi-Physical Tyre Model Approaches
Hackl, Andreas; Scherndl, Christoph; Hirschberg, Wolfgang; Lex, Cornelia
2017-10-01
With increasing level of complexity and automation in the area of automotive engineering, the simulation of safety relevant Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) leads to increasing accuracy demands in the description of tyre contact forces. In recent years, with improvement in tyre simulation, the needs for coping with tyre temperatures and the resulting changes in tyre characteristics are rising significantly. Therefore, experimental validation of three different temperature model approaches is carried out, discussed and compared in the scope of this article. To investigate or rather evaluate the range of application of the presented approaches in combination with respect of further implementation in semi-physical tyre models, the main focus lies on the a physical parameterisation. Aside from good modelling accuracy, focus is held on computational time and complexity of the parameterisation process. To evaluate this process and discuss the results, measurements from a Hoosier racing tyre 6.0 / 18.0 10 LCO C2000 from an industrial flat test bench are used. Finally the simulation results are compared with the measurement data.
-
Validation of a phytoremediation computer model
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Corapcioglu, M Y; Sung, K; Rhykerd, R L; Munster, C; Drew, M [Texas A and M Univ., College Station, TX (United States)
1999-01-01
The use of plants to stimulate remediation of contaminated soil is an effective, low-cost cleanup method which can be applied to many different sites. A phytoremediation computer model has been developed to simulate how recalcitrant hydrocarbons interact with plant roots in unsaturated soil. A study was conducted to provide data to validate and calibrate the model. During the study, lysimeters were constructed and filled with soil contaminated with 10 [mg kg[sub -1
-
Traffic modelling validation of advanced driver assistance systems
Tongeren, R. van; Gietelink, O.J.; Schutter, B. de; Verhaegen, M.
2007-01-01
This paper presents a microscopic traffic model for the validation of advanced driver assistance systems. This model describes single-lane traffic and is calibrated with data from a field operational test. To illustrate the use of the model, a Monte Carlo simulation of single-lane traffic scenarios
-
Verification and Validation of Tropospheric Model/Database
National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
Junho, choi
1998-01-01
A verification and validation of tropospheric models and databases has been performed based on ray tracing algorithm, statistical analysis, test on real time system operation, and other technical evaluation process...
-
Experimental validation of models for Plasma Focus devices
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Rodriguez Palomino, Luis; Gonzalez, Jose; Clausse, Alejandro
2003-01-01
Plasma Focus(PF) Devices are thermonuclear pulsators that produce short pulsed radiation (X-ray, charged particles and neutrons). Since Filippov and Mather, investigations have been used to study plasma properties. Nowadays the interest about PF is focused in technology applications, related to the use of these devices as pulsed neutron sources. In the numerical calculus the Inter institutional PLADEMA (PLAsmas DEnsos MAgnetizados) network is developing three models. Each one is useful in different engineering stages of the Plasma Focus design. One of the main objectives in this work is a comparative study on the influence of the different parameters involved in each models. To validate these results, several experimental measurements under different geometry and initial conditions were performed. (author)
-
Uncertainty in Earth System Models: Benchmarks for Ocean Model Performance and Validation
Ogunro, O. O.; Elliott, S.; Collier, N.; Wingenter, O. W.; Deal, C.; Fu, W.; Hoffman, F. M.
2017-12-01
The mean ocean CO2 sink is a major component of the global carbon budget, with marine reservoirs holding about fifty times more carbon than the atmosphere. Phytoplankton play a significant role in the net carbon sink through photosynthesis and drawdown, such that about a quarter of anthropogenic CO2 emissions end up in the ocean. Biology greatly increases the efficiency of marine environments in CO2 uptake and ultimately reduces the impact of the persistent rise in atmospheric concentrations. However, a number of challenges remain in appropriate representation of marine biogeochemical processes in Earth System Models (ESM). These threaten to undermine the community effort to quantify seasonal to multidecadal variability in ocean uptake of atmospheric CO2. In a bid to improve analyses of marine contributions to climate-carbon cycle feedbacks, we have developed new analysis methods and biogeochemistry metrics as part of the International Ocean Model Benchmarking (IOMB) effort. Our intent is to meet the growing diagnostic and benchmarking needs of ocean biogeochemistry models. The resulting software package has been employed to validate DOE ocean biogeochemistry results by comparison with observational datasets. Several other international ocean models contributing results to the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) were analyzed simultaneously. Our comparisons suggest that the biogeochemical processes determining CO2 entry into the global ocean are not well represented in most ESMs. Polar regions continue to show notable biases in many critical biogeochemical and physical oceanographic variables. Some of these disparities could have first order impacts on the conversion of atmospheric CO2 to organic carbon. In addition, single forcing simulations show that the current ocean state can be partly explained by the uptake of anthropogenic emissions. Combined effects of two or more of these forcings on ocean biogeochemical cycles and ecosystems
-
Assessment and validation of the CAESAR predictive model for bioconcentration factor (BCF in fish
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Milan Chiara
2010-07-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Bioconcentration factor (BCF describes the behaviour of a chemical in terms of its likelihood of concentrating in organisms in the environment. It is a fundamental property in recent regulations, such as the European Community Regulation on chemicals and their safe use or the Globally Harmonized System for classification, labelling and packaging. These new regulations consider the possibility of reducing or waiving animal tests using alternative methods, such as in silico methods. This study assessed and validated the CAESAR predictive model for BCF in fish. Results To validate the model, new experimental data were collected and used to create an external set, as a second validation set (a first validation exercise had been done just after model development. The performance of the model was compared with BCFBAF v3.00. For continuous values and for classification purposes the CAESAR BCF model gave better results than BCFBAF v3.00 for the chemicals in the applicability domain of the model. R2 and Q2 were good and accuracy in classification higher than 90%. Applying an offset of 0.5 to the compounds predicted with BCF close to the thresholds, the number of false negatives (the most dangerous errors dropped considerably (less than 0.6% of chemicals. Conclusions The CAESAR model for BCF is useful for regulatory purposes because it is robust, reliable and predictive. It is also fully transparent and documented and has a well-defined applicability domain, as required by REACH. The model is freely available on the CAESAR web site and easy to use. The reliability of the model reporting the six most similar compounds found in the CAESAR dataset, and their experimental and predicted values, can be evaluated.
-
Cost model validation: a technical and cultural approach
Hihn, J.; Rosenberg, L.; Roust, K.; Warfield, K.
2001-01-01
This paper summarizes how JPL's parametric mission cost model (PMCM) has been validated using both formal statistical methods and a variety of peer and management reviews in order to establish organizational acceptance of the cost model estimates.
-
van der Wijk, Lars; Proost, Johannes H.; Sinha, Bhanu; Touw, Daan J.
2017-01-01
Gentamicin shows large variations in half-life and volume of distribution (Vd) within and between individuals. Thus, monitoring and accurately predicting serum levels are required to optimize effectiveness and minimize toxicity. Currently, two population pharmacokinetic models are applied for predicting gentamicin doses in adults. For endocarditis patients the optimal model is unknown. We aimed at: 1) creating an optimal model for endocarditis patients; and 2) assessing whether the endocarditis and existing models can accurately predict serum levels. We performed a retrospective observational two-cohort study: one cohort to parameterize the endocarditis model by iterative two-stage Bayesian analysis, and a second cohort to validate and compare all three models. The Akaike Information Criterion and the weighted sum of squares of the residuals divided by the degrees of freedom were used to select the endocarditis model. Median Prediction Error (MDPE) and Median Absolute Prediction Error (MDAPE) were used to test all models with the validation dataset. We built the endocarditis model based on data from the modeling cohort (65 patients) with a fixed 0.277 L/h/70kg metabolic clearance, 0.698 (±0.358) renal clearance as fraction of creatinine clearance, and Vd 0.312 (±0.076) L/kg corrected lean body mass. External validation with data from 14 validation cohort patients showed a similar predictive power of the endocarditis model (MDPE -1.77%, MDAPE 4.68%) as compared to the intensive-care (MDPE -1.33%, MDAPE 4.37%) and standard (MDPE -0.90%, MDAPE 4.82%) models. All models acceptably predicted pharmacokinetic parameters for gentamicin in endocarditis patients. However, these patients appear to have an increased Vd, similar to intensive care patients. Vd mainly determines the height of peak serum levels, which in turn correlate with bactericidal activity. In order to maintain simplicity, we advise to use the existing intensive-care model in clinical practice to avoid
-
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Anna Gomes
Full Text Available Gentamicin shows large variations in half-life and volume of distribution (Vd within and between individuals. Thus, monitoring and accurately predicting serum levels are required to optimize effectiveness and minimize toxicity. Currently, two population pharmacokinetic models are applied for predicting gentamicin doses in adults. For endocarditis patients the optimal model is unknown. We aimed at: 1 creating an optimal model for endocarditis patients; and 2 assessing whether the endocarditis and existing models can accurately predict serum levels. We performed a retrospective observational two-cohort study: one cohort to parameterize the endocarditis model by iterative two-stage Bayesian analysis, and a second cohort to validate and compare all three models. The Akaike Information Criterion and the weighted sum of squares of the residuals divided by the degrees of freedom were used to select the endocarditis model. Median Prediction Error (MDPE and Median Absolute Prediction Error (MDAPE were used to test all models with the validation dataset. We built the endocarditis model based on data from the modeling cohort (65 patients with a fixed 0.277 L/h/70kg metabolic clearance, 0.698 (±0.358 renal clearance as fraction of creatinine clearance, and Vd 0.312 (±0.076 L/kg corrected lean body mass. External validation with data from 14 validation cohort patients showed a similar predictive power of the endocarditis model (MDPE -1.77%, MDAPE 4.68% as compared to the intensive-care (MDPE -1.33%, MDAPE 4.37% and standard (MDPE -0.90%, MDAPE 4.82% models. All models acceptably predicted pharmacokinetic parameters for gentamicin in endocarditis patients. However, these patients appear to have an increased Vd, similar to intensive care patients. Vd mainly determines the height of peak serum levels, which in turn correlate with bactericidal activity. In order to maintain simplicity, we advise to use the existing intensive-care model in clinical practice to
-
The development and validation of a thermal model for the cabin of a vehicle
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Marcos, David; Pino, Francisco J.; Bordons, Carlos; Guerra, José J.
2014-01-01
Energy management in modern vehicles is a crucial issue, especially in the case of electric vehicles (EV) or hybrid vehicles (HV), in which different energy sources and loads must be considered for the operation of a vehicle. Air conditioning is an important load that must be thoroughly analysed because it can constitute a considerable percentage of the energy demand. In this paper, a simplified and dynamic thermal model for the cabin of a vehicle is proposed and validated. The developed model can be used for the design and testing of the heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) system of a vehicle and for the study of its effects on the performance and fuel consumption of vehicles, such as EVs or HVs. The model is based on theoretical heat transfer, thermal inertia, and radiation treatment equations. The model results obtained from simulations are compared with the cabin air temperature of a vehicle under different conditions. This comparison demonstrates the accuracy between the simulation results and actual results. - Highlights: •A thermal model of a vehicle cabin with two thermal inertias is developed. •The model is validated with experimental data. •The simulation results and the experimental data fit
-
Application of parameters space analysis tools for empirical model validation
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Paloma del Barrio, E. [LEPT-ENSAM UMR 8508, Talence (France); Guyon, G. [Electricite de France, Moret-sur-Loing (France)
2004-01-01
A new methodology for empirical model validation has been proposed in the framework of the Task 22 (Building Energy Analysis Tools) of the International Energy Agency. It involves two main steps: checking model validity and diagnosis. Both steps, as well as the underlying methods, have been presented in the first part of the paper. In this part, they are applied for testing modelling hypothesis in the framework of the thermal analysis of an actual building. Sensitivity analysis tools have been first used to identify the parts of the model that can be really tested on the available data. A preliminary diagnosis is then supplied by principal components analysis. Useful information for model behaviour improvement has been finally obtained by optimisation techniques. This example of application shows how model parameters space analysis is a powerful tool for empirical validation. In particular, diagnosis possibilities are largely increased in comparison with residuals analysis techniques. (author)
-
Validation analysis of probabilistic models of dietary exposure to food additives.
Gilsenan, M B; Thompson, R L; Lambe, J; Gibney, M J
2003-10-01
The validity of a range of simple conceptual models designed specifically for the estimation of food additive intakes using probabilistic analysis was assessed. Modelled intake estimates that fell below traditional conservative point estimates of intake and above 'true' additive intakes (calculated from a reference database at brand level) were considered to be in a valid region. Models were developed for 10 food additives by combining food intake data, the probability of an additive being present in a food group and additive concentration data. Food intake and additive concentration data were entered as raw data or as a lognormal distribution, and the probability of an additive being present was entered based on the per cent brands or the per cent eating occasions within a food group that contained an additive. Since the three model components assumed two possible modes of input, the validity of eight (2(3)) model combinations was assessed. All model inputs were derived from the reference database. An iterative approach was employed in which the validity of individual model components was assessed first, followed by validation of full conceptual models. While the distribution of intake estimates from models fell below conservative intakes, which assume that the additive is present at maximum permitted levels (MPLs) in all foods in which it is permitted, intake estimates were not consistently above 'true' intakes. These analyses indicate the need for more complex models for the estimation of food additive intakes using probabilistic analysis. Such models should incorporate information on market share and/or brand loyalty.
-
Bautista, Maria P; Bonilla, Guillermo A; Mieth, Klaus W; Llinás, Adolfo M; Rodríguez, Fernanda; Cárdenas, Laura L
2017-07-01
Arthroplasty registries are a relevant source of information for research and quality improvement in patient care and its value depends on the quality of the recorded data. The purpose of this study is to describe a model of validation and present the findings of validation of an Institutional Arthroplasty Registry (IAR). Information from 209 primary arthroplasties and revision surgeries of the hip, knee, and shoulder recorded in the IAR between March and September 2015 were analyzed in the following domains. Adherence is defined as the proportion of patients included in the registry, completeness is defined as the proportion of data effectively recorded, and accuracy is defined as the proportion of data consistent with medical records. A random sample of 53 patients (25.4%) was selected to assess the latest 2 domains. A direct comparison between the registry's database and medical records was performed. In total, 324 variables containing information on demographic data, surgical procedure, clinical outcomes, and key performance indicators were analyzed. Two hundred nine of 212 patients who underwent surgery during the study period were included in the registry, accounting for an adherence of 98.6%. Completeness was 91.7% and accuracy was 85.8%. Most errors were found in the preoperative range of motion and timely administration of prophylactic antibiotics and thromboprophylaxis. This model provides useful information regarding the quality of the recorded data since it identified deficient areas within the IAR. We recommend that institutional arthroplasty registries be constantly monitored for data quality before using their information for research or quality improvement purposes. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
-
Numerical Validation of Chemical Compositional Model for Wettability Alteration Processes
Bekbauov, Bakhbergen; Berdyshev, Abdumauvlen; Baishemirov, Zharasbek; Bau, Domenico
2017-12-01
Chemical compositional simulation of enhanced oil recovery and surfactant enhanced aquifer remediation processes is a complex task that involves solving dozens of equations for all grid blocks representing a reservoir. In the present work, we perform a numerical validation of the newly developed mathematical formulation which satisfies the conservation laws of mass and energy and allows applying a sequential solution approach to solve the governing equations separately and implicitly. Through its application to the numerical experiment using a wettability alteration model and comparisons with existing chemical compositional model's numerical results, the new model has proven to be practical, reliable and stable.
-
In silico modelling and validation of differential expressed proteins in lung cancer
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Bhagavathi S
2012-05-01
Full Text Available Objective: The present study aims predict the three dimensional structure of three major proteins responsible for causing Lung cancer. Methods: These are the differentially expressed proteins in lung cancer dataset. Initially, the structural template for these proteins is identified from structural database using homology search and perform homology modelling approach to predict its native 3D structure. Three-dimensional model obtained was validated using Ramachandran plot analysis to find the reliability of the model. Results: Four proteins were differentially expressed and were significant proteins in causing lung cancer. Among the four proteins, Matrixmetallo proteinase (P39900 had a known 3D structure and hence was not considered for modelling. The remaining proteins Polo like kinase I Q58A51, Trophinin B1AKF1, Thrombomodulin P07204 were modelled and validated. Conclusions: The three dimensional structure of proteins provides insights about the functional aspect and regulatory aspect of the protein. Thus, this study will be a breakthrough for further lung cancer related studies.
-
Ensuring the Validity of the Micro Foundation in DSGE Models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Andreasen, Martin Møller
& Primiceri (American Economic Review, forth- coming) and Fernández-Villaverde & Rubio-Ramírez (Review of Economic Studies, 2007) do not satisfy these sufficient conditions, or any other known set of conditions ensuring finite values for the objective functions. Thus, the validity of the micro foundation......The presence of i) stochastic trends, ii) deterministic trends, and/or iii) stochastic volatil- ity in DSGE models may imply that the agents' objective functions attain infinite values. We say that such models do not have a valid micro foundation. The paper derives sufficient condi- tions which...... ensure that the objective functions of the households and the firms are finite even when various trends and stochastic volatility are included in a standard DSGE model. Based on these conditions we test the validity of the micro foundation in six DSGE models from the literature. The models of Justiniano...
-
Benchmark validation of statistical models: Application to mediation analysis of imagery and memory.
MacKinnon, David P; Valente, Matthew J; Wurpts, Ingrid C
2018-03-29
This article describes benchmark validation, an approach to validating a statistical model. According to benchmark validation, a valid model generates estimates and research conclusions consistent with a known substantive effect. Three types of benchmark validation-(a) benchmark value, (b) benchmark estimate, and (c) benchmark effect-are described and illustrated with examples. Benchmark validation methods are especially useful for statistical models with assumptions that are untestable or very difficult to test. Benchmark effect validation methods were applied to evaluate statistical mediation analysis in eight studies using the established effect that increasing mental imagery improves recall of words. Statistical mediation analysis led to conclusions about mediation that were consistent with established theory that increased imagery leads to increased word recall. Benchmark validation based on established substantive theory is discussed as a general way to investigate characteristics of statistical models and a complement to mathematical proof and statistical simulation. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).
-
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Steven L. Isaak
2017-09-01
Full Text Available The Commitment-Reflectivity Circumplex (CRC model is a structural model of religious orientation that was designed to help organize and clarify measurement of foundational aspect of religiousness. The current study successfully replicated the CRC model using multidimensional scaling, and further evaluated the reliability, structure, and validity of their measures in both a university student sample (Study 1 and a nationally representative sample (Study 2. All 10 subscales of the Circumplex Religious Orientation Inventory (CROI demonstrated good reliability across both samples. A two-week test-retest of the CROI showed that the subscales are stable over time. A confirmatory factor analysis of the CROI in the representative adult sample demonstrated good model fit. Finally, the CROI’s validity was examined in relation to the Intrinsic, Extrinsic and Quest measures. Overall, the CROI appears to clarify much of the ambiguity inherent in the established scales by breaking down what were very broad orientations into very specific suborientations. The results suggest that the CRC model is applicable for diverse populations of adults. In addition, the CROI appears to be construct valid with good structural and psychometric properties across all 10 subscales.
-
Amin, Sk Abdul; Adhikari, Nilanjan; Baidya, Sandip Kumar; Gayen, Shovanlal; Jha, Tarun
2018-01-03
Chemokines trigger numerous inflammatory responses and modulate the immune system. The interaction between monocyte chemoattractant protein-1 and chemokine receptor 2 (CCR2) may be the cause of atherosclerosis, obesity, and insulin resistance. However, CCR2 is also implicated in other inflammatory diseases such as rheumatoid arthritis, multiple sclerosis, asthma, and neuropathic pain. Therefore, there is a paramount importance of designing potent and selective CCR2 antagonists despite a number of drug candidates failed in clinical trials. In this article, 83 CCR2 antagonists by Jhonson and Jhonson Pharmaceuticals have been considered for robust validated multi-QSAR modeling studies to get an idea about the structural and pharmacophoric requirements for designing more potent CCR2 antagonists. All these QSAR models were validated and statistically reliable. Observations resulted from different modeling studies correlated and validated results of other ones. Finally, depending on these QSAR observations, some new molecules were proposed that may exhibit higher activity against CCR2.
-
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Laurens, J.-M.
1987-10-01
A validation methodology is proposed and applied to the computer model VERMIN, which is used to simulate radionuclide release from repositories for solid radioactive wastes. The processes included in the validation exercise are leaching from the waste matrix, diffusive transport and advective transport combined with sorption. Suggestions are made for new experimental studies relevant to VERMIN validation. In addition, VERMIN was used to simulate the behaviour of a repository in a clay formation and thus provide input for the geosphere model being used in the PACOMA study. Results from these simulations are reported. (author)
-
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Pierre Peturaud; Eric Hervieu
2005-01-01
Full text of publication follows: A long-term joint development program for the next generation of nuclear reactors simulation tools has been launched in 2001 by EDF (Electricite de France) and CEA (Commissariat a l'Energie Atomique). The NEPTUNE Project constitutes the Thermal-Hydraulics part of this comprehensive program. Along with the underway development of this new two-phase flow software platform, the physical validation of the involved modelling is a crucial issue, whatever the modelling scale is, and the present paper deals with this issue. After a brief recall about the NEPTUNE platform, the general validation strategy to be adopted is first of all clarified by means of three major features: (i) physical validation in close connection with the concerned industrial applications, (ii) involving (as far as possible) a two-step process successively focusing on dominant separate models and assessing the whole modelling capability, (iii) thanks to the use of relevant data with respect to the validation aims. Based on this general validation process, a four-step generic work approach has been defined; it includes: (i) a thorough analysis of the concerned industrial applications to identify the key physical phenomena involved and associated dominant basic models, (ii) an assessment of these models against the available validation pieces of information, to specify the additional validation needs and define dedicated validation plans, (iii) an inventory and assessment of existing validation data (with respect to the requirements specified in the previous task) to identify the actual needs for new validation data, (iv) the specification of the new experimental programs to be set up to provide the needed new data. This work approach has been applied to the NEPTUNE software, focusing on 8 high priority industrial applications, and it has resulted in the definition of (i) the validation plan and experimental programs to be set up for the open medium 3D modelling
-
Contaminant transport model validation: The Oak Ridge Reservation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lee, R.R.; Ketelle, R.H.
1988-09-01
In the complex geologic setting on the Oak Ridge Reservation, hydraulic conductivity is anisotropic and flow is strongly influenced by an extensive and largely discontinuous fracture network. Difficulties in describing and modeling the aquifer system prompted a study to obtain aquifer property data to be used in a groundwater flow model validation experiment. Characterization studies included the performance of an extensive suite of aquifer test within a 600-square-meter area to obtain aquifer property values to describe the flow field in detail. Following aquifer test, a groundwater tracer test was performed under ambient conditions to verify the aquifer analysis. Tracer migration data in the near-field were used in model calibration to predict tracer arrival time and concentration in the far-field. Despite the extensive aquifer testing, initial modeling inaccurately predicted tracer migration direction. Initial tracer migration rates were consistent with those predicted by the model; however, changing environmental conditions resulted in an unanticipated decay in tracer movement. Evaluation of the predictive accuracy of groundwater flow and contaminant transport models on the Oak Ridge Reservation depends on defining the resolution required, followed by field testing and model grid definition at compatible scales. The use of tracer tests, both as a characterization method and to verify model results, provides the highest level of resolution of groundwater flow characteristics. 3 refs., 4 figs
-
Modelling the pre-assessment learning effects of assessment: evidence in the validity chain.
Cilliers, Francois J; Schuwirth, Lambert W T; van der Vleuten, Cees P M
2012-11-01
We previously developed a model of the pre-assessment learning effects of consequential assessment and started to validate it. The model comprises assessment factors, mechanism factors and learning effects. The purpose of this study was to continue the validation process. For stringency, we focused on a subset of assessment factor-learning effect associations that featured least commonly in a baseline qualitative study. Our aims were to determine whether these uncommon associations were operational in a broader but similar population to that in which the model was initially derived. A cross-sectional survey of 361 senior medical students at one medical school was undertaken using a purpose-made questionnaire based on a grounded theory and comprising pairs of written situational tests. In each pair, the manifestation of an assessment factor was varied. The frequencies at which learning effects were selected were compared for each item pair, using an adjusted alpha to assign significance. The frequencies at which mechanism factors were selected were calculated. There were significant differences in the learning effect selected between the two scenarios of an item pair for 13 of this subset of 21 uncommon associations, even when a p-value of value. For a subset of uncommon associations in the model, the role of most assessment factor-learning effect associations and the mechanism factors involved were supported in a broader but similar population to that in which the model was derived. Although model validation is an ongoing process, these results move the model one step closer to the stage of usefully informing interventions. Results illustrate how factors not typically included in studies of the learning effects of assessment could confound the results of interventions aimed at using assessment to influence learning. © Blackwell Publishing Ltd 2012.
-
Experimental validation of TASS/SMR-S critical flow model for the integral reactor SMART
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Seo, Si Won; Ra, In Sik; Kim, Kun Yeup [ACT Co., Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Chung, Young Jong [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)
2011-05-15
An advanced integral PWR, SMART (System- Integrated Modular Advanced ReacTor) is being developed in KAERI. It has a compact size and a relatively small power rating (330MWt) compared to a conventional reactor. Because new concepts are applied to SMART, an experimental and analytical validation is necessary for the safety evaluation of SMART. The analytical safety validation is being accomplished by a safety analysis code for an integral reactor, TASS/SMR-S developed by KAERI. TASS/SMR-S uses a lumped parameter one dimensional node and path modeling for the thermal hydraulic calculation and it uses point kinetics for the reactor power calculation. It has models for a general usage such as a core heat transfer model, a wall heat structure model, a critical flow model, component models, and it also has many SMART specific models such as an once through helical coiled steam generator model, and a condensate heat transfer model. To ensure that the TASS/SMR-S code has the calculation capability for the safety evaluation of SMART, the code should be validated for the specific models with the separate effect test experimental results. In this study, TASS/SMR-S critical flow model is evaluated as compared with SMD (Super Moby Dick) experiment
-
Zhu, Wei; Timmermans, Harry
2011-06-01
Models of geographical choice behavior have been dominantly based on rational choice models, which assume that decision makers are utility-maximizers. Rational choice models may be less appropriate as behavioral models when modeling decisions in complex environments in which decision makers may simplify the decision problem using heuristics. Pedestrian behavior in shopping streets is an example. We therefore propose a modeling framework for pedestrian shopping behavior incorporating principles of bounded rationality. We extend three classical heuristic rules (conjunctive, disjunctive and lexicographic rule) by introducing threshold heterogeneity. The proposed models are implemented using data on pedestrian behavior in Wang Fujing Street, the city center of Beijing, China. The models are estimated and compared with multinomial logit models and mixed logit models. Results show that the heuristic models are the best for all the decisions that are modeled. Validation tests are carried out through multi-agent simulation by comparing simulated spatio-temporal agent behavior with the observed pedestrian behavior. The predictions of heuristic models are slightly better than those of the multinomial logit models.
-
Statistical methods for mechanistic model validation: Salt Repository Project
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Eggett, D.L.
1988-07-01
As part of the Department of Energy's Salt Repository Program, Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) is studying the emplacement of nuclear waste containers in a salt repository. One objective of the SRP program is to develop an overall waste package component model which adequately describes such phenomena as container corrosion, waste form leaching, spent fuel degradation, etc., which are possible in the salt repository environment. The form of this model will be proposed, based on scientific principles and relevant salt repository conditions with supporting data. The model will be used to predict the future characteristics of the near field environment. This involves several different submodels such as the amount of time it takes a brine solution to contact a canister in the repository, how long it takes a canister to corrode and expose its contents to the brine, the leach rate of the contents of the canister, etc. These submodels are often tested in a laboratory and should be statistically validated (in this context, validate means to demonstrate that the model adequately describes the data) before they can be incorporated into the waste package component model. This report describes statistical methods for validating these models. 13 refs., 1 fig., 3 tabs
-
Method for Pre-Conditioning a Measured Surface Height Map for Model Validation
Sidick, Erkin
2012-01-01
This software allows one to up-sample or down-sample a measured surface map for model validation, not only without introducing any re-sampling errors, but also eliminating the existing measurement noise and measurement errors. Because the re-sampling of a surface map is accomplished based on the analytical expressions of Zernike-polynomials and a power spectral density model, such re-sampling does not introduce any aliasing and interpolation errors as is done by the conventional interpolation and FFT-based (fast-Fourier-transform-based) spatial-filtering method. Also, this new method automatically eliminates the measurement noise and other measurement errors such as artificial discontinuity. The developmental cycle of an optical system, such as a space telescope, includes, but is not limited to, the following two steps: (1) deriving requirements or specs on the optical quality of individual optics before they are fabricated through optical modeling and simulations, and (2) validating the optical model using the measured surface height maps after all optics are fabricated. There are a number of computational issues related to model validation, one of which is the "pre-conditioning" or pre-processing of the measured surface maps before using them in a model validation software tool. This software addresses the following issues: (1) up- or down-sampling a measured surface map to match it with the gridded data format of a model validation tool, and (2) eliminating the surface measurement noise or measurement errors such that the resulted surface height map is continuous or smoothly-varying. So far, the preferred method used for re-sampling a surface map is two-dimensional interpolation. The main problem of this method is that the same pixel can take different values when the method of interpolation is changed among the different methods such as the "nearest," "linear," "cubic," and "spline" fitting in Matlab. The conventional, FFT-based spatial filtering method used to
-
Validating firn compaction model with remote sensing data
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Simonsen, S. B.; Stenseng, Lars; Sørensen, Louise Sandberg
A comprehensive understanding of firn processes is of outmost importance, when estimating present and future changes of the Greenland Ice Sheet. Especially, when remote sensing altimetry is used to assess the state of ice sheets and their contribution to global sea level rise, firn compaction...... models have been shown to be a key component. Now, remote sensing data can also be used to validate the firn models. Radar penetrating the upper part of the firn column in the interior part of Greenland shows a clear layering. The observed layers from the radar data can be used as an in-situ validation...... correction relative to the changes in the elevation of the surface observed with remote sensing altimetry? What model time resolution is necessary to resolved the observed layering? What model refinements are necessary to give better estimates of the surface mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet from...
-
A model of fluid and solute exchange in the human: validation and implications.
Bert, J L; Gyenge, C C; Bowen, B D; Reed, R K; Lund, T
2000-11-01
In order to understand better the complex, dynamic behaviour of the redistribution and exchange of fluid and solutes administered to normal individuals or to those with acute hypovolemia, mathematical models are used in addition to direct experimental investigation. Initial validation of a model developed by our group involved data from animal experiments (Gyenge, C.C., Bowen, B.D., Reed, R.K. & Bert, J.L. 1999b. Am J Physiol 277 (Heart Circ Physiol 46), H1228-H1240). For a first validation involving humans, we compare the results of simulations with a wide range of different types of data from two experimental studies. These studies involved administration of normal saline or hypertonic saline with Dextran to both normal and 10% haemorrhaged subjects. We compared simulations with data including the dynamic changes in plasma and interstitial fluid volumes VPL and VIT respectively, plasma and interstitial colloid osmotic pressures PiPL and PiIT respectively, haematocrit (Hct), plasma solute concentrations and transcapillary flow rates. The model predictions were overall in very good agreement with the wide range of experimental results considered. Based on the conditions investigated, the model was also validated for humans. We used the model both to investigate mechanisms associated with the redistribution and transport of fluid and solutes administered following a mild haemorrhage and to speculate on the relationship between the timing and amount of fluid infusions and subsequent blood volume expansion.
-
Experimental Validation and Model Verification for a Novel Geometry ICPC Solar Collector
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Perers, Bengt; Duff, William S.; Daosukho, Jirachote
A novel geometry ICPC solar collector was developed at the University of Chicago and Colorado State University. A ray tracing model has been designed to investigate the optical performance of both the horizontal and vertical fin versions of this collector. Solar radiation is modeled as discrete...... to the desired incident angle of the sun’s rays, performance of the novel ICPC solar collector at various specified angles along the transverse and longitudinal evacuated tube directions were experimentally determined. To validate the ray tracing model, transverse and longitudinal performance predictions...... at the corresponding specified incident angles are compared to the Sandia results. A 100 m2 336 Novel ICPC evacuated tube solar collector array has been in continuous operation at a demonstration project in Sacramento California since 1998. Data from the initial operation of the array are used to further validate...
-
Some guidance on preparing validation plans for the DART Full System Models.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Gray, Genetha Anne; Hough, Patricia Diane; Hills, Richard Guy (Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM)
2009-03-01
Planning is an important part of computational model verification and validation (V&V) and the requisite planning document is vital for effectively executing the plan. The document provides a means of communicating intent to the typically large group of people, from program management to analysts to test engineers, who must work together to complete the validation activities. This report provides guidelines for writing a validation plan. It describes the components of such a plan and includes important references and resources. While the initial target audience is the DART Full System Model teams in the nuclear weapons program, the guidelines are generally applicable to other modeling efforts. Our goal in writing this document is to provide a framework for consistency in validation plans across weapon systems, different types of models, and different scenarios. Specific details contained in any given validation plan will vary according to application requirements and available resources.
-
ADVISHE: A new tool to report validation of health-economic decision models
Vemer, P.; Corro Ramos, I.; Van Voorn, G.; Al, M.J.; Feenstra, T.L.
2014-01-01
Background: Modelers and reimbursement decision makers could both profit from a more systematic reporting of the efforts to validate health-economic (HE) models. Objectives: Development of a tool to systematically report validation efforts of HE decision models and their outcomes. Methods: A gross
-
Central Pressure Appraisal: Clinical Validation of a Subject-Specific Mathematical Model.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Francesco Tosello
Full Text Available Current evidence suggests that aortic blood pressure has a superior prognostic value with respect to brachial pressure for cardiovascular events, but direct measurement is not feasible in daily clinical practice.The aim of the present study is the clinical validation of a multiscale mathematical model for non-invasive appraisal of central blood pressure from subject-specific characteristics.A total of 51 young male were selected for the present study. Aortic systolic and diastolic pressure were estimated with a mathematical model and were compared to the most-used non-invasive validated technique (SphygmoCor device, AtCor Medical, Australia. SphygmoCor was calibrated through diastolic and systolic brachial pressure obtained with a sphygmomanometer, while model inputs consist of brachial pressure, height, weight, age, left-ventricular end-systolic and end-diastolic volumes, and data from a pulse wave velocity study.Model-estimated systolic and diastolic central blood pressures resulted to be significantly related to SphygmoCor-assessed central systolic (r = 0.65 p <0.0001 and diastolic (r = 0.84 p<0.0001 blood pressures. The model showed a significant overestimation of systolic pressure (+7.8 (-2.2;14 mmHg, p = 0.0003 and a significant underestimation of diastolic values (-3.2 (-7.5;1.6, p = 0.004, which imply a significant overestimation of central pulse pressure. Interestingly, model prediction errors mirror the mean errors reported in large meta-analysis characterizing the use of the SphygmoCor when non-invasive calibration is performed.In conclusion, multi-scale mathematical model predictions result to be significantly related to SphygmoCor ones. Model-predicted systolic and diastolic aortic pressure resulted in difference of less than 10 mmHg in the 51% and 84% of the subjects, respectively, when compared with SphygmoCor-obtained pressures.
-
Validating a continental-scale groundwater diffuse pollution model using regional datasets.
Ouedraogo, Issoufou; Defourny, Pierre; Vanclooster, Marnik
2017-12-11
In this study, we assess the validity of an African-scale groundwater pollution model for nitrates. In a previous study, we identified a statistical continental-scale groundwater pollution model for nitrate. The model was identified using a pan-African meta-analysis of available nitrate groundwater pollution studies. The model was implemented in both Random Forest (RF) and multiple regression formats. For both approaches, we collected as predictors a comprehensive GIS database of 13 spatial attributes, related to land use, soil type, hydrogeology, topography, climatology, region typology, nitrogen fertiliser application rate, and population density. In this paper, we validate the continental-scale model of groundwater contamination by using a nitrate measurement dataset from three African countries. We discuss the issue of data availability, and quality and scale issues, as challenges in validation. Notwithstanding that the modelling procedure exhibited very good success using a continental-scale dataset (e.g. R 2 = 0.97 in the RF format using a cross-validation approach), the continental-scale model could not be used without recalibration to predict nitrate pollution at the country scale using regional data. In addition, when recalibrating the model using country-scale datasets, the order of model exploratory factors changes. This suggests that the structure and the parameters of a statistical spatially distributed groundwater degradation model for the African continent are strongly scale dependent.
-
Establishment and validation of the model of molten pool in fast reactor
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zhou Shufeng; Luo Rui; Wang Zhou; Shi Xiaobo; Yang Xianyong
2007-01-01
Running under the beyond design base accidental condition, sodium boiling and dry-out will soon be brought about in LMFBR. If not stopped timely, the fuel pins of the subassembly will be melt and broken to form a molten pool at the bottom of the subassembly. to present a reasonable analysis about the molten pool accident, a method of establishing model according to the mechanism is selected, by which an integral model of the molten pool is established. Validated on the three power groups of BF1 experiments which belong to the France SCARABEE series experimenters, the model shows good results. After compared with the models of GEYSER and BF2 experiments which had been validated before, some conclusions about mechanism of molten pool are derived. Moreover, through comparing the relative parameters such as the discharged heat and the increment of temperature etc., a reasonable analysis about the type of heat transfer is present, on the basis of which some conclusions are derived as well. (authors)
-
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Pearson, F.J.
1999-01-01
It is asserted that models cannot be validated. This seems obvious if one identifies validation as the process of testing a model against absolute truth, and accepts that absolute truth is less a scientific than a philosophic or religious concept. What is here called model validation has a more modest goal - to develop confidence in the conceptual and mathematical models used to describe a groundwater system by illustrating that measured radiochemical properties of the groundwater match those predicted by the model. The system described is the Carrizo sand in the Gulf Coastal Plain of south Texas. Each element of the modelling chain describing the movement of 14 C is confirmed independently and, thus, can be said to be validated. The groundwater ages, and the 14 C measurements and carbonate geochemical model underlying them, are confirmed by the noble gas measurements, while the flow and transport model is confirmed by the 14 C results. Agreement between the modelled and measured 234 U/ 238 U ratios supports the description of U transport used in the modelling, while the need to use an unexpectedly low K D value for U raises questions about the applicability of laboratory K D data to the Carrizo groundwater system. (author)
-
Proceedings of the first SRL model validation workshop
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Buckner, M.R.
1981-10-01
The Clean Air Act and its amendments have added importance to knowing the accuracy of mathematical models used to assess transport and diffusion of environmental pollutants. These models are the link between air quality standards and emissions. To test the accuracy of a number of these models, a Model Validation Workshop was held. The meteorological, source-term, and Kr-85 concentration data bases for emissions from the separations areas of the Savannah River Plant during 1975 through 1977 were used to compare calculations from various atmospheric dispersion models. The results of statistical evaluation of the models show a degradation in the ability to predict pollutant concentrations as the time span over which the calculations are made is reduced. Forecasts for annual time periods were reasonably accurate. Weighted-average squared correlation coefficients (R 2 ) were 0.74 for annual, 0.28 for monthly, 0.21 for weekly, and 0.18 for twice-daily predictions. Model performance varied within each of these four categories; however, the results indicate that the more complex, three-dimensional models provide only marginal increases in accuracy. The increased costs of running these codes is not warranted for long-term releases or for conditions of relatively simple terrain and meteorology. The overriding factor in the calculational accuracy is the accurate description of the wind field. Further improvements of the numerical accuracy of the complex models is not nearly as important as accurate calculations of the meteorological transport conditions
-
Validation and results of a questionnaire for functional bowel disease in out-patients
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Skordilis Panagiotis
2002-05-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background The aim was to evaluate and validate a bowel disease questionnaire in patients attending an out-patient gastroenterology clinic in Greece. Methods This was a prospective study. Diagnosis was based on detailed clinical and laboratory evaluation. The questionnaire was tested on a pilot group of patients. Interviewer-administration technique was used. One-hundred-and-forty consecutive patients attending the out-patient clinic for the first time and fifty healthy controls selected randomly participated in the study. Reliability (kappa statistics and validity of the questionnaire were tested. We used logistic regression models and binary recursive partitioning for assessing distinguishing ability among irritable bowel syndrome (IBS, functional dyspepsia and organic disease patients. Results Mean time for questionnaire completion was 18 min. In test-retest procedure a good agreement was obtained (kappa statistics 0.82. There were 55 patients diagnosed as having IBS, 18 with functional dyspepsia (Rome I criteria, 38 with organic disease. Location of pain was a significant distinguishing factor, patients with functional dyspepsia having no lower abdominal pain (p Conclusions This questionnaire for functional bowel disease is a valid and reliable instrument that can distinguish satisfactorily between organic and functional disease in an out-patient setting.
-
Validation of the DeLone and McLean Information Systems Success Model
Ojo, Adebowale I.
2017-01-01
Objectives This study is an adaptation of the widely used DeLone and McLean information system success model in the context of hospital information systems in a developing country. Methods A survey research design was adopted in the study. A structured questionnaire was used to collect data from 442 health information management personnel in five Nigerian teaching hospitals. A structural equation modeling technique was used to validate the model's constructs. Results It was revealed that syst...
-
Validation of Power Requirement Model for Active Loudspeakers
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Schneider, Henrik; Madsen, Anders Normann; Bjerregaard, Ruben
2015-01-01
. There are however many advantages that could be harvested from such knowledge like size, cost and efficiency improvements. In this paper a recently proposed power requirement model for active loudspeakers is experimentally validated and the model is expanded to include the closed and vented type enclosures...
-
Gustafson, David H; Hawkins, Robert P; Brennan, Patricia F; Dinauer, Susan; Johnson, Pauley R; Siegler, Tracy
2010-01-01
Objective To develop and validate the Readiness for Implementation Model (RIM). This model predicts a healthcare organization's potential for success in implementing an interactive health communication system (IHCS). The model consists of seven weighted factors, with each factor containing five to seven elements. Design Two decision-analytic approaches, self-explicated and conjoint analysis, were used to measure the weights of the RIM with a sample of 410 experts. The RIM model with weights was then validated in a prospective study of 25 IHCS implementation cases. Measurements Orthogonal main effects design was used to develop 700 conjoint-analysis profiles, which varied on seven factors. Each of the 410 experts rated the importance and desirability of the factors and their levels, as well as a set of 10 different profiles. For the prospective 25-case validation, three time-repeated measures of the RIM scores were collected for comparison with the implementation outcomes. Results Two of the seven factors, ‘organizational motivation’ and ‘meeting user needs,’ were found to be most important in predicting implementation readiness. No statistically significant difference was found in the predictive validity of the two approaches (self-explicated and conjoint analysis). The RIM was a better predictor for the 1-year implementation outcome than the half-year outcome. Limitations The expert sample, the order of the survey tasks, the additive model, and basing the RIM cut-off score on experience are possible limitations of the study. Conclusion The RIM needs to be empirically evaluated in institutions adopting IHCS and sustaining the system in the long term. PMID:20962135
-
Assessing flood risk at the global scale: model setup, results, and sensitivity
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ward, Philip J; Jongman, Brenden; Weiland, Frederiek Sperna; Winsemius, Hessel C; Bouwman, Arno; Ligtvoet, Willem; Van Beek, Rens; Bierkens, Marc F P
2013-01-01
Globally, economic losses from flooding exceeded $19 billion in 2012, and are rising rapidly. Hence, there is an increasing need for global-scale flood risk assessments, also within the context of integrated global assessments. We have developed and validated a model cascade for producing global flood risk maps, based on numerous flood return-periods. Validation results indicate that the model simulates interannual fluctuations in flood impacts well. The cascade involves: hydrological and hydraulic modelling; extreme value statistics; inundation modelling; flood impact modelling; and estimating annual expected impacts. The initial results estimate global impacts for several indicators, for example annual expected exposed population (169 million); and annual expected exposed GDP ($1383 billion). These results are relatively insensitive to the extreme value distribution employed to estimate low frequency flood volumes. However, they are extremely sensitive to the assumed flood protection standard; developing a database of such standards should be a research priority. Also, results are sensitive to the use of two different climate forcing datasets. The impact model can easily accommodate new, user-defined, impact indicators. We envisage several applications, for example: identifying risk hotspots; calculating macro-scale risk for the insurance industry and large companies; and assessing potential benefits (and costs) of adaptation measures. (letter)
-
D'Ambrosio, Michele; Tofani, Veronica; Rossi, Guglielmo; Salvatici, Teresa; Tacconi Stefanelli, Carlo; Rosi, Ascanio; Benedetta Masi, Elena; Pazzi, Veronica; Vannocci, Pietro; Catani, Filippo; Casagli, Nicola
2017-04-01
runs in real-time by assimilating weather data and uses Monte Carlo simulation techniques to manage the geotechnical and hydrological input parameters. In this context, an assessment of the factors controlling the geotechnical and hydrological features is crucial in order to understand the occurrence of slope instability mechanisms and to provide reliable forecasting of the hydrogeological hazard occurrence, especially in relation to weather events. In particular, the model and the soil characterization were applied in back analysis, in order to assess the reliability of the model through validation of the results with landslide events that occurred during the period. The validation was performed on four past events of intense rainfall that have affected Valle d'Aosta region between 2008 and 2010 years triggering fast shallows landslides. The simulations show substantial improvement of the reliability of the results compared to the use of literature parameters. A statistical analysis of the HIRESSS outputs in terms of failure probability has been carried out in order to define reliable alert levels for regional landslide early warning systems.
-
Accounting for treatment use when validating a prognostic model: a simulation study.
Pajouheshnia, Romin; Peelen, Linda M; Moons, Karel G M; Reitsma, Johannes B; Groenwold, Rolf H H
2017-07-14
Prognostic models often show poor performance when applied to independent validation data sets. We illustrate how treatment use in a validation set can affect measures of model performance and present the uses and limitations of available analytical methods to account for this using simulated data. We outline how the use of risk-lowering treatments in a validation set can lead to an apparent overestimation of risk by a prognostic model that was developed in a treatment-naïve cohort to make predictions of risk without treatment. Potential methods to correct for the effects of treatment use when testing or validating a prognostic model are discussed from a theoretical perspective.. Subsequently, we assess, in simulated data sets, the impact of excluding treated individuals and the use of inverse probability weighting (IPW) on the estimated model discrimination (c-index) and calibration (observed:expected ratio and calibration plots) in scenarios with different patterns and effects of treatment use. Ignoring the use of effective treatments in a validation data set leads to poorer model discrimination and calibration than would be observed in the untreated target population for the model. Excluding treated individuals provided correct estimates of model performance only when treatment was randomly allocated, although this reduced the precision of the estimates. IPW followed by exclusion of the treated individuals provided correct estimates of model performance in data sets where treatment use was either random or moderately associated with an individual's risk when the assumptions of IPW were met, but yielded incorrect estimates in the presence of non-positivity or an unobserved confounder. When validating a prognostic model developed to make predictions of risk without treatment, treatment use in the validation set can bias estimates of the performance of the model in future targeted individuals, and should not be ignored. When treatment use is random, treated
-
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Baldos, Uris Lantz C; Hertel, Thomas W
2013-01-01
Global agricultural models are becoming indispensable in the debate over climate change impacts and mitigation policies. Therefore, it is becoming increasingly important to validate these models and identify critical areas for improvement. In this letter, we illustrate both the opportunities and the challenges in undertaking such model validation, using the SIMPLE model of global agriculture. We look back at the long run historical period 1961–2006 and, using a few key historical drivers—population, incomes and total factor productivity—we find that SIMPLE is able to accurately reproduce historical changes in cropland use, crop price, crop production and average crop yields at the global scale. Equally important is our investigation into how the specific assumptions embedded in many agricultural models will likely influence these results. We find that those global models which are largely biophysical—thereby ignoring the price responsiveness of demand and supply—are likely to understate changes in crop production, while failing to capture the changes in cropland use and crop price. Likewise, global models which incorporate economic responses, but do so based on limited time series estimates of these responses, are likely to understate land use change and overstate price changes. (letter)
-
Validation of dispersion model of RTARC-DSS based on ''KIT'' field experiments
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Duran, J.
2000-01-01
The aim of this study is to present the performance of the Gaussian dispersion model RTARC-DSS (Real Time Accident Release Consequences - Decision Support System) at the 'Kit' field experiments. The Model Validation Kit is a collection of three experimental data sets from Kincaid, Copenhagen, Lillestrom and supplementary Indianopolis experimental campaigns accompanied by software for model evaluation. The validation of the model has been performed on the basis of the maximum arc-wise concentrations using the Bootstrap resampling procedure the variation of the model residuals. Validation was performed for the short-range distances (about 1 - 10 km, maximum for Kincaid data set - 50 km from source). Model evaluation procedure and amount of relative over- or under-prediction are discussed and compared with the model. (author)
-
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Norros, Leena; Savioja, Paula
2004-01-01
In this paper we present our recent research which focuses on creating an evaluation method for human-system interfaces of complex systems. The method is aimed for use in the validation of modernised nuclear power plant (NPP) control rooms, and other complex systems with high reliability requirements. The task in validation is to determine whether the human-system functions safely and effectively. This question can be operationalized to the selection of relevant operational features and their appropriate acceptance criteria. Thus, there is a need to ensure that the results of the evaluation can be generalized so that they serve the purpose of integrated system validation. The definition of the appropriate acceptance criteria provides basis for the judgement of the appropriateness of the performance of the system. We propose that the operational situations and the acceptance criteria should be defined based on modelling of the NPP operation that is comprehended as an activity system. We developed a new core-tasks modelling framework. It is a formative modelling approach that combines causal, functional and understanding explanations of system performance. In this paper we reason how modelling can be used as a medium to determine the validity of the emerging control room system. (Author)
-
Development and Validation of Linear Alternator Models for the Advanced Stirling Convertor
Metscher, Jonathan F.; Lewandowski, Edward J.
2015-01-01
Two models of the linear alternator of the Advanced Stirling Convertor (ASC) have been developed using the Sage 1-D modeling software package. The first model relates the piston motion to electric current by means of a motor constant. The second uses electromagnetic model components to model the magnetic circuit of the alternator. The models are tuned and validated using test data and also compared against each other. Results show both models can be tuned to achieve results within 7 of ASC test data under normal operating conditions. Using Sage enables the creation of a complete ASC model to be developed and simulations completed quickly compared to more complex multi-dimensional models. These models allow for better insight into overall Stirling convertor performance, aid with Stirling power system modeling, and in the future support NASA mission planning for Stirling-based power systems.
-
Construct validity of the ovine model in endoscopic sinus surgery training.
Awad, Zaid; Taghi, Ali; Sethukumar, Priya; Tolley, Neil S
2015-03-01
To demonstrate construct validity of the ovine model as a tool for training in endoscopic sinus surgery (ESS). Prospective, cross-sectional evaluation study. Over 18 consecutive months, trainees and experts were evaluated in their ability to perform a range of tasks (based on previous face validation and descriptive studies conducted by the same group) relating to ESS on the sheep-head model. Anonymized randomized video recordings of the above were assessed by two independent and blinded assessors. A validated assessment tool utilizing a five-point Likert scale was employed. Construct validity was calculated by comparing scores across training levels and experts using mean and interquartile range of global and task-specific scores. Subgroup analysis of the intermediate group ascertained previous experience. Nonparametric descriptive statistics were used, and analysis was carried out using SPSS version 21 (IBM, Armonk, NY). Reliability of the assessment tool was confirmed. The model discriminated well between different levels of expertise in global and task-specific scores. A positive correlation was noted between year in training and both global and task-specific scores (P variable, and the number of ESS procedures performed under supervision had the highest impact on performance. This study describes an alternative model for ESS training and assessment. It is also the first to demonstrate construct validity of the sheep-head model for ESS training. © 2014 The American Laryngological, Rhinological and Otological Society, Inc.
-
Lute, A. C.; Luce, Charles H.
2017-11-01
The related challenges of predictions in ungauged basins and predictions in ungauged climates point to the need to develop environmental models that are transferable across both space and time. Hydrologic modeling has historically focused on modelling one or only a few basins using highly parameterized conceptual or physically based models. However, model parameters and structures have been shown to change significantly when calibrated to new basins or time periods, suggesting that model complexity and model transferability may be antithetical. Empirical space-for-time models provide a framework within which to assess model transferability and any tradeoff with model complexity. Using 497 SNOTEL sites in the western U.S., we develop space-for-time models of April 1 SWE and Snow Residence Time based on mean winter temperature and cumulative winter precipitation. The transferability of the models to new conditions (in both space and time) is assessed using non-random cross-validation tests with consideration of the influence of model complexity on transferability. As others have noted, the algorithmic empirical models transfer best when minimal extrapolation in input variables is required. Temporal split-sample validations use pseudoreplicated samples, resulting in the selection of overly complex models, which has implications for the design of hydrologic model validation tests. Finally, we show that low to moderate complexity models transfer most successfully to new conditions in space and time, providing empirical confirmation of the parsimony principal.
-
A comprehensive model for piezoceramic actuators: modelling, validation and application
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Quant, Mario; Elizalde, Hugo; Flores, Abiud; Ramírez, Ricardo; Orta, Pedro; Song, Gangbing
2009-01-01
This paper presents a comprehensive model for piezoceramic actuators (PAs), which accounts for hysteresis, non-linear electric field and dynamic effects. The hysteresis model is based on the widely used general Maxwell slip model, while an enhanced electro-mechanical non-linear model replaces the linear constitutive equations commonly used. Further on, a linear second order model compensates the frequency response of the actuator. Each individual model is fully characterized from experimental data yielded by a specific PA, then incorporated into a comprehensive 'direct' model able to determine the output strain based on the applied input voltage, fully compensating the aforementioned effects, where the term 'direct' represents an electrical-to-mechanical operating path. The 'direct' model was implemented in a Matlab/Simulink environment and successfully validated via experimental results, exhibiting higher accuracy and simplicity than many published models. This simplicity would allow a straightforward inclusion of other behaviour such as creep, ageing, material non-linearity, etc, if such parameters are important for a particular application. Based on the same formulation, two other models are also presented: the first is an 'alternate' model intended to operate within a force-controlled scheme (instead of a displacement/position control), thus able to capture the complex mechanical interactions occurring between a PA and its host structure. The second development is an 'inverse' model, able to operate within an open-loop control scheme, that is, yielding a 'linearized' PA behaviour. The performance of the developed models is demonstrated via a numerical sample case simulated in Matlab/Simulink, consisting of a PA coupled to a simple mechanical system, aimed at shifting the natural frequency of the latter
-
Validation of a Global Hydrodynamic Flood Inundation Model
Bates, P. D.; Smith, A.; Sampson, C. C.; Alfieri, L.; Neal, J. C.
2014-12-01
In this work we present first validation results for a hyper-resolution global flood inundation model. We use a true hydrodynamic model (LISFLOOD-FP) to simulate flood inundation at 1km resolution globally and then use downscaling algorithms to determine flood extent and depth at 90m spatial resolution. Terrain data are taken from a custom version of the SRTM data set that has been processed specifically for hydrodynamic modelling. Return periods of flood flows along the entire global river network are determined using: (1) empirical relationships between catchment characteristics and index flood magnitude in different hydroclimatic zones derived from global runoff data; and (2) an index flood growth curve, also empirically derived. Bankful return period flow is then used to set channel width and depth, and flood defence impacts are modelled using empirical relationships between GDP, urbanization and defence standard of protection. The results of these simulations are global flood hazard maps for a number of different return period events from 1 in 5 to 1 in 1000 years. We compare these predictions to flood hazard maps developed by national government agencies in the UK and Germany using similar methods but employing detailed local data, and to observed flood extent at a number of sites including St. Louis, USA and Bangkok in Thailand. Results show that global flood hazard models can have considerable skill given careful treatment to overcome errors in the publicly available data that are used as their input.
-
Validating a Technology Enhanced Student-Centered Learning Model
Kang, Myunghee; Hahn, Jungsun; Chung, Warren
2015-01-01
The Technology Enhanced Student Centered Learning (TESCL) Model in this study presents the core factors that ensure the quality of learning in a technology-supported environment. Although the model was conceptually constructed using a student-centered learning framework and drawing upon previous studies, it should be validated through real-world…
-
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Engqvist, Anders; Andrejev, Oleg
2008-12-01
The Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) is undertaking site characterization at two different locations, the Forsmark and the Laxemar-Simpevarp areas, with the objective of siting a geological repository for spent nuclear fuel. The characterization work is divided into an initial site investigation phase and a complete site investigation phase. In this context, the water exchange of the coastal zone is one link of the chain of possible nuclide transport mechanisms that must be assessed in the site description of potential repository areas. For the purpose of validating the pair of nested 3D-models and the coupled discrete basin (CDB-) model employed to simulate the water exchange in the near-shore coastal zone in the Laxemar-Simpevarp area, an encompassing measurement program entailing data from six stations (of which two are close) has been performed. The design of this program was to first assess to what degree the forcing of the fine resolution (FR-) model of the Laxemar- Simpevarp study area at its interfacial boundary to the coarse resolution (CR-) model of the entire Baltic was reproduced. In addition to this, it is of particular interest how the time-varying density-determining properties, salinity and temperature, at the borders are propagated into the FR-domain and further influence the water exchange with the interior, more secluded, basins. An important part of the validation process has been to carefully evaluate which measurement data that can be considered reliable. The result was that some periods of foremost near-surface salinity data had to be discarded due to growth of algae on the conductivity sensors. Interference with ship traffic and lack of absolute calibration of the salinity meters necessitated dismissal of measurement data too. In this study so-called Mesan data have been consistently used for the meteorological forcing of the 3D-models. Relative the assessed data that can be accepted as adequate, the outcome of the
-
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Engqvist, Anders (A och I Engqvist Konsult HB, Vaxholm (SE)); Andrejev, Oleg (Finnish Inst. of Marine Research, Helsinki (FI))
2008-12-15
The Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) is undertaking site characterization at two different locations, the Forsmark and the Laxemar-Simpevarp areas, with the objective of siting a geological repository for spent nuclear fuel. The characterization work is divided into an initial site investigation phase and a complete site investigation phase. In this context, the water exchange of the coastal zone is one link of the chain of possible nuclide transport mechanisms that must be assessed in the site description of potential repository areas. For the purpose of validating the pair of nested 3D-models and the coupled discrete basin (CDB-) model employed to simulate the water exchange in the near-shore coastal zone in the Laxemar-Simpevarp area, an encompassing measurement program entailing data from six stations (of which two are close) has been performed. The design of this program was to first assess to what degree the forcing of the fine resolution (FR-) model of the Laxemar- Simpevarp study area at its interfacial boundary to the coarse resolution (CR-) model of the entire Baltic was reproduced. In addition to this, it is of particular interest how the time-varying density-determining properties, salinity and temperature, at the borders are propagated into the FR-domain and further influence the water exchange with the interior, more secluded, basins. An important part of the validation process has been to carefully evaluate which measurement data that can be considered reliable. The result was that some periods of foremost near-surface salinity data had to be discarded due to growth of algae on the conductivity sensors. Interference with ship traffic and lack of absolute calibration of the salinity meters necessitated dismissal of measurement data too. In this study so-called Mesan data have been consistently used for the meteorological forcing of the 3D-models. Relative the assessed data that can be accepted as adequate, the outcome of the
-
Mikulski, M.; Bekdemir, C.; Willems, F.P.T.
2016-01-01
This paper presents the validation results of TNO's combustion model designed to support RCCI control development. In-depth validation was performed on a multi-cylinder heavy-duty engine operating in RCCI mode on natural gas and diesel fuel. It was shown that the adopted approach is able to
-
Simulated training in colonoscopic stenting of colonic strictures: validation of a cadaver model.
Iordache, F; Bucobo, J C; Devlin, D; You, K; Bergamaschi, R
2015-07-01
There are currently no available simulation models for training in colonoscopic stent deployment. The aim of this study was to validate a cadaver model for simulation training in colonoscopy with stent deployment for colonic strictures. This was a prospective study enrolling surgeons at a single institution. Participants performed colonoscopic stenting on a cadaver model. Their performance was assessed by two independent observers. Measurements were performed for quantitative analysis (time to identify stenosis, time for deployment, accuracy) and a weighted score was devised for assessment. The Mann-Whitney U-test and Student's t-test were used for nonparametric and parametric data, respectively. Cohen's kappa coefficient was used for reliability. Twenty participants performed a colonoscopy with deployment of a self-expandable metallic stent in two cadavers (groups A and B) with 20 strictures overall. The median time was 206 s. The model was able to differentiate between experts and novices (P = 0. 013). The results showed a good consensus estimate of reliability, with kappa = 0.571 (P cadaver model described in this study has content, construct and concurrent validity for simulation training in colonoscopic deployment of self-expandable stents for colonic strictures. Further studies are needed to evaluate the predictive validity of this model in terms of skill transfer to clinical practice. Colorectal Disease © 2014 The Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland.
-
Sohlberg, McKay Moore; Fickas, Stephen; Lemoncello, Rik; Hung, Pei-Fang
2009-01-01
To develop a theoretical, functional model of community navigation for individuals with cognitive impairments: the Activities of Community Transportation (ACTs). Iterative design using qualitative methods (i.e. document review, focus groups and observations). Four agencies providing travel training to adults with cognitive impairments in the USA participated in the validation study. A thorough document review and series of focus groups led to the development of a comprehensive model (ACTs Wheels) delineating the requisite steps and skills for community navigation. The model was validated and updated based on observations of 395 actual trips by travellers with navigational challenges from the four participating agencies. Results revealed that the 'ACTs Wheel' models were complete and comprehensive. The 'ACTs Wheels' represent a comprehensive model of the steps needed to navigate to destinations using paratransit and fixed-route public transportation systems for travellers with cognitive impairments. Suggestions are made for future investigations of community transportation for this population.
-
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Meng, Fanzhong; Schwarze, Holger; Vorpahl, Fabian; Strobel, Michael
2014-01-01
Since the 1970s several research activities had been carried out on developing aerodynamic models for Vertical Axis Wind Turbines (VAWTs). In order to design large VAWTs of MW scale, more accurate aerodynamic calculation is required to predict their aero-elastic behaviours. In this paper, a 3D free wake vortex lattice model for VAWTs is developed, verified and validated. Comparisons to the experimental results show that the 3D free wake vortex lattice model developed is capable of making an accurate prediction of the general performance and the instantaneous aerodynamic forces on the blades. The comparison between momentum method and the vortex lattice model shows that free wake vortex models are needed for detailed loads calculation and for calculating highly loaded rotors
-
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Zhao Dawei
2016-01-01
Full Text Available In recent years, a significant number of large-scale solar photovoltaic (PV plants have been put into operation or been under planning around the world. The model accuracy of solar PV plant is the key factor to investigate the mutual influences between solar PV plants and a power grid. However, this problem has not been well solved, especially in how to apply the real measurements to validate the models of the solar PV plants. Taking fast-responding generator method as an example, this paper presents a model validation methodology for solar PV plant via the hybrid data dynamic simulation. First, the implementation scheme of hybrid data dynamic simulation suitable for DIgSILENT PowerFactory software is proposed, and then an analysis model of solar PV plant integration based on IEEE 9 system is established. At last, model validation of solar PV plant is achieved by employing hybrid data dynamic simulation. The results illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method in solar PV plant model validation.
-
Validation Hydrodynamic Models of Three Topological Models of Secondary Facultative Ponds
Aponte-Reyes Alxander
2014-01-01
A methodology was developed to analyze boundary conditions, the size of the mesh and the turbulence of a mathematical model of CFD, which could explain hydrodynamic behavior on facultative stabilization ponds, FSP, built to pilot scale: conventional pond, CP, baffled pond, BP, and baffled-mesh pond, BMP. Models dispersion studies were performed in field for validation, taking samples into and out of the FSP, the information was used to carry out CFD model simulations of the three topologies. ...
-
Analytical Performance Modeling and Validation of Intel’s Xeon Phi Architecture
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Chunduri, Sudheer; Balaprakash, Prasanna; Morozov, Vitali; Vishwanath, Venkatram; Kumaran, Kalyan
2017-01-01
Modeling the performance of scientific applications on emerging hardware plays a central role in achieving extreme-scale computing goals. Analytical models that capture the interaction between applications and hardware characteristics are attractive because even a reasonably accurate model can be useful for performance tuning before the hardware is made available. In this paper, we develop a hardware model for Intel’s second-generation Xeon Phi architecture code-named Knights Landing (KNL) for the SKOPE framework. We validate the KNL hardware model by projecting the performance of mini-benchmarks and application kernels. The results show that our KNL model can project the performance with prediction errors of 10% to 20%. The hardware model also provides informative recommendations for code transformations and tuning.
-
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Vangsgaard, Anna Katrine; Mutlu, Ayten Gizem; Gernaey, Krist
2013-01-01
BACKGROUND: A validated model describing the nitritation-anammox process in a granular sequencing batch reactor (SBR) system is an important tool for: a) design of future experiments and b) prediction of process performance during optimization, while applying process control, or during system scale......-up. RESULTS: A model was calibrated using a step-wise procedure customized for the specific needs of the system. The important steps in the procedure were initialization, steady-state and dynamic calibration, and validation. A fast and effective initialization approach was developed to approximate pseudo...... screening of the parameter space proposed by Sin et al. (2008) - to find the best fit of the model to dynamic data. Finally, the calibrated model was validated with an independent data set. CONCLUSION: The presented calibration procedure is the first customized procedure for this type of system...
-
On the Validation of a Numerical Model for the Analysis of Soil-Structure Interaction Problems
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jorge Luis Palomino Tamayo
Full Text Available Abstract Modeling and simulation of mechanical response of structures, relies on the use of computational models. Therefore, verification and validation procedures are the primary means of assessing accuracy, confidence and credibility in modeling. This paper is concerned with the validation of a three dimensional numerical model based on the finite element method suitable for the dynamic analysis of soil-structure interaction problems. The soil mass, structure, structure's foundation and the appropriate boundary conditions can be represented altogether in a single model by using a direct approach. The theory of porous media of Biot is used to represent the soil mass as a two-phase material which is considered to be fully saturated with water; meanwhile other parts of the system are treated as one-phase materials. Plasticity of the soil mass is the main source of non-linearity in the problem and therefore an iterative-incremental algorithm based on the Newton-Raphson procedure is used to solve the nonlinear equilibrium equations. For discretization in time, the Generalized Newmark-β method is used. The soil is represented by a plasticity-based, effective-stress constitutive model suitable for liquefaction. Validation of the present numerical model is done by comparing analytical and centrifuge test results of soil and soil-pile systems with those results obtained with the present numerical model. A soil-pile-structure interaction problem is also presented in order to shown the potentiality of the numerical tool.
-
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
M. Shafiqur Rahman
2017-04-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background When developing a prediction model for survival data it is essential to validate its performance in external validation settings using appropriate performance measures. Although a number of such measures have been proposed, there is only limited guidance regarding their use in the context of model validation. This paper reviewed and evaluated a wide range of performance measures to provide some guidelines for their use in practice. Methods An extensive simulation study based on two clinical datasets was conducted to investigate the performance of the measures in external validation settings. Measures were selected from categories that assess the overall performance, discrimination and calibration of a survival prediction model. Some of these have been modified to allow their use with validation data, and a case study is provided to describe how these measures can be estimated in practice. The measures were evaluated with respect to their robustness to censoring and ease of interpretation. All measures are implemented, or are straightforward to implement, in statistical software. Results Most of the performance measures were reasonably robust to moderate levels of censoring. One exception was Harrell’s concordance measure which tended to increase as censoring increased. Conclusions We recommend that Uno’s concordance measure is used to quantify concordance when there are moderate levels of censoring. Alternatively, Gönen and Heller’s measure could be considered, especially if censoring is very high, but we suggest that the prediction model is re-calibrated first. We also recommend that Royston’s D is routinely reported to assess discrimination since it has an appealing interpretation. The calibration slope is useful for both internal and external validation settings and recommended to report routinely. Our recommendation would be to use any of the predictive accuracy measures and provide the corresponding predictive
-
Validation of a phytoremediation computer model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Corapcioglu, M.Y.; Sung, K.; Rhykerd, R.L.; Munster, C.; Drew, M.
1999-01-01
The use of plants to stimulate remediation of contaminated soil is an effective, low-cost cleanup method which can be applied to many different sites. A phytoremediation computer model has been developed to simulate how recalcitrant hydrocarbons interact with plant roots in unsaturated soil. A study was conducted to provide data to validate and calibrate the model. During the study, lysimeters were constructed and filled with soil contaminated with 10 [mg kg -1 ] TNT, PBB and chrysene. Vegetated and unvegetated treatments were conducted in triplicate to obtain data regarding contaminant concentrations in the soil, plant roots, root distribution, microbial activity, plant water use and soil moisture. When given the parameters of time and depth, the model successfully predicted contaminant concentrations under actual field conditions. Other model parameters are currently being evaluated. 15 refs., 2 figs
-
Making Validated Educational Models Central in Preschool Standards.
Schweinhart, Lawrence J.
This paper presents some ideas to preschool educators and policy makers about how to make validated educational models central in standards for preschool education and care programs that are available to all 3- and 4-year-olds. Defining an educational model as a coherent body of program practices, curriculum content, program and child, and teacher…
-
Numerical modeling and preliminary validation of drag-based vertical axis wind turbine
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Krysiński Tomasz
2015-03-01
Full Text Available The main purpose of this article is to verify and validate the mathematical description of the airflow around a wind turbine with vertical axis of rotation, which could be considered as representative for this type of devices. Mathematical modeling of the airflow around wind turbines in particular those with the vertical axis is a problematic matter due to the complex nature of this highly swirled flow. Moreover, it is turbulent flow accompanied by a rotation of the rotor and the dynamic boundary layer separation. In such conditions, the key aspects of the mathematical model are accurate turbulence description, definition of circular motion as well as accompanying effects like centrifugal force or the Coriolis force and parameters of spatial and temporal discretization. The paper presents the impact of the different simulation parameters on the obtained results of the wind turbine simulation. Analysed models have been validated against experimental data published in the literature.
-
Validation of models for analysis of ranks in horse breeding evaluation
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ricard Anne
2010-01-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Ranks have been used as phenotypes in the genetic evaluation of horses for a long time through the use of earnings, normal score or raw ranks. A model, ("underlying model" of an unobservable underlying variable responsible for ranks exists. Recently, a full Bayesian analysis using this model was developed. In addition, in reality, competitions are structured into categories according to the technical level of difficulty linked to the technical ability of horses (horses considered to be the "best" meet their peers. The aim of this article was to validate the underlying model through simulations and to propose a more appropriate model with a mixture distribution of horses in the case of a structured competition. The simulations involved 1000 horses with 10 to 50 performances per horse and 4 to 20 horses per event with unstructured and structured competitions. Results The underlying model responsible for ranks performed well with unstructured competitions by drawing liabilities in the Gibbs sampler according to the following rule: the liability of each horse must be drawn in the interval formed by the liabilities of horses ranked before and after the particular horse. The estimated repeatability was the simulated one (0.25 and regression between estimated competing ability of horses and true ability was close to 1. Underestimations of repeatability (0.07 to 0.22 were obtained with other traditional criteria (normal score or raw ranks, but in the case of a structured competition, repeatability was underestimated (0.18 to 0.22. Our results show that the effect of an event, or category of event, is irrelevant in such a situation because ranks are independent of such an effect. The proposed mixture model pools horses according to their participation in different categories of competition during the period observed. This last model gave better results (repeatability 0.25, in particular, it provided an improved estimation of average
-
The Safety Culture Enactment Questionnaire (SCEQ): Theoretical model and empirical validation.
de Castro, Borja López; Gracia, Francisco J; Tomás, Inés; Peiró, José M
2017-06-01
This paper presents the Safety Culture Enactment Questionnaire (SCEQ), designed to assess the degree to which safety is an enacted value in the day-to-day running of nuclear power plants (NPPs). The SCEQ is based on a theoretical safety culture model that is manifested in three fundamental components of the functioning and operation of any organization: strategic decisions, human resources practices, and daily activities and behaviors. The extent to which the importance of safety is enacted in each of these three components provides information about the pervasiveness of the safety culture in the NPP. To validate the SCEQ and the model on which it is based, two separate studies were carried out with data collection in 2008 and 2014, respectively. In Study 1, the SCEQ was administered to the employees of two Spanish NPPs (N=533) belonging to the same company. Participants in Study 2 included 598 employees from the same NPPs, who completed the SCEQ and other questionnaires measuring different safety outcomes (safety climate, safety satisfaction, job satisfaction and risky behaviors). Study 1 comprised item formulation and examination of the factorial structure and reliability of the SCEQ. Study 2 tested internal consistency and provided evidence of factorial validity, validity based on relationships with other variables, and discriminant validity between the SCEQ and safety climate. Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA) carried out in Study 1 revealed a three-factor solution corresponding to the three components of the theoretical model. Reliability analyses showed strong internal consistency for the three scales of the SCEQ, and each of the 21 items on the questionnaire contributed to the homogeneity of its theoretically developed scale. Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) carried out in Study 2 supported the internal structure of the SCEQ; internal consistency of the scales was also supported. Furthermore, the three scales of the SCEQ showed the expected correlation
-
Validation, Optimization and Simulation of a Solar Thermoelectric Generator Model
Madkhali, Hadi Ali; Hamil, Ali; Lee, HoSung
2017-12-01
This study explores thermoelectrics as a viable option for small-scale solar thermal applications. Thermoelectric technology is based on the Seebeck effect, which states that a voltage is induced when a temperature gradient is applied to the junctions of two differing materials. This research proposes to analyze, validate, simulate, and optimize a prototype solar thermoelectric generator (STEG) model in order to increase efficiency. The intent is to further develop STEGs as a viable and productive energy source that limits pollution and reduces the cost of energy production. An empirical study (Kraemer et al. in Nat Mater 10:532, 2011) on the solar thermoelectric generator reported a high efficiency performance of 4.6%. The system had a vacuum glass enclosure, a flat panel (absorber), thermoelectric generator and water circulation for the cold side. The theoretical and numerical approach of this current study validated the experimental results from Kraemer's study to a high degree. The numerical simulation process utilizes a two-stage approach in ANSYS software for Fluent and Thermal-Electric Systems. The solar load model technique uses solar radiation under AM 1.5G conditions in Fluent. This analytical model applies Dr. Ho Sung Lee's theory of optimal design to improve the performance of the STEG system by using dimensionless parameters. Applying this theory, using two cover glasses and radiation shields, the STEG model can achieve a highest efficiency of 7%.
-
Predictive validation of an influenza spread model.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ayaz Hyder
Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Modeling plays a critical role in mitigating impacts of seasonal influenza epidemics. Complex simulation models are currently at the forefront of evaluating optimal mitigation strategies at multiple scales and levels of organization. Given their evaluative role, these models remain limited in their ability to predict and forecast future epidemics leading some researchers and public-health practitioners to question their usefulness. The objective of this study is to evaluate the predictive ability of an existing complex simulation model of influenza spread. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used extensive data on past epidemics to demonstrate the process of predictive validation. This involved generalizing an individual-based model for influenza spread and fitting it to laboratory-confirmed influenza infection data from a single observed epidemic (1998-1999. Next, we used the fitted model and modified two of its parameters based on data on real-world perturbations (vaccination coverage by age group and strain type. Simulating epidemics under these changes allowed us to estimate the deviation/error between the expected epidemic curve under perturbation and observed epidemics taking place from 1999 to 2006. Our model was able to forecast absolute intensity and epidemic peak week several weeks earlier with reasonable reliability and depended on the method of forecasting-static or dynamic. CONCLUSIONS: Good predictive ability of influenza epidemics is critical for implementing mitigation strategies in an effective and timely manner. Through the process of predictive validation applied to a current complex simulation model of influenza spread, we provided users of the model (e.g. public-health officials and policy-makers with quantitative metrics and practical recommendations on mitigating impacts of seasonal influenza epidemics. This methodology may be applied to other models of communicable infectious diseases to test and potentially improve
-
Predictive Validation of an Influenza Spread Model
Hyder, Ayaz; Buckeridge, David L.; Leung, Brian
2013-01-01
Background Modeling plays a critical role in mitigating impacts of seasonal influenza epidemics. Complex simulation models are currently at the forefront of evaluating optimal mitigation strategies at multiple scales and levels of organization. Given their evaluative role, these models remain limited in their ability to predict and forecast future epidemics leading some researchers and public-health practitioners to question their usefulness. The objective of this study is to evaluate the predictive ability of an existing complex simulation model of influenza spread. Methods and Findings We used extensive data on past epidemics to demonstrate the process of predictive validation. This involved generalizing an individual-based model for influenza spread and fitting it to laboratory-confirmed influenza infection data from a single observed epidemic (1998–1999). Next, we used the fitted model and modified two of its parameters based on data on real-world perturbations (vaccination coverage by age group and strain type). Simulating epidemics under these changes allowed us to estimate the deviation/error between the expected epidemic curve under perturbation and observed epidemics taking place from 1999 to 2006. Our model was able to forecast absolute intensity and epidemic peak week several weeks earlier with reasonable reliability and depended on the method of forecasting-static or dynamic. Conclusions Good predictive ability of influenza epidemics is critical for implementing mitigation strategies in an effective and timely manner. Through the process of predictive validation applied to a current complex simulation model of influenza spread, we provided users of the model (e.g. public-health officials and policy-makers) with quantitative metrics and practical recommendations on mitigating impacts of seasonal influenza epidemics. This methodology may be applied to other models of communicable infectious diseases to test and potentially improve their predictive
-
Development and Validation of a 3-Dimensional CFB Furnace Model
Vepsäläinen, Arl; Myöhänen, Karl; Hyppäneni, Timo; Leino, Timo; Tourunen, Antti
At Foster Wheeler, a three-dimensional CFB furnace model is essential part of knowledge development of CFB furnace process regarding solid mixing, combustion, emission formation and heat transfer. Results of laboratory and pilot scale phenomenon research are utilized in development of sub-models. Analyses of field-test results in industrial-scale CFB boilers including furnace profile measurements are simultaneously carried out with development of 3-dimensional process modeling, which provides a chain of knowledge that is utilized as feedback for phenomenon research. Knowledge gathered by model validation studies and up-to-date parameter databases are utilized in performance prediction and design development of CFB boiler furnaces. This paper reports recent development steps related to modeling of combustion and formation of char and volatiles of various fuel types in CFB conditions. Also a new model for predicting the formation of nitrogen oxides is presented. Validation of mixing and combustion parameters for solids and gases are based on test balances at several large-scale CFB boilers combusting coal, peat and bio-fuels. Field-tests including lateral and vertical furnace profile measurements and characterization of solid materials provides a window for characterization of fuel specific mixing and combustion behavior in CFB furnace at different loads and operation conditions. Measured horizontal gas profiles are projection of balance between fuel mixing and reactions at lower part of furnace and are used together with both lateral temperature profiles at bed and upper parts of furnace for determination of solid mixing and combustion model parameters. Modeling of char and volatile based formation of NO profiles is followed by analysis of oxidizing and reducing regions formed due lower furnace design and mixing characteristics of fuel and combustion airs effecting to formation ofNO furnace profile by reduction and volatile-nitrogen reactions. This paper presents
-
Recent Progress Validating the HADES Model of LLNL's HEAF MicroCT Measurements
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
White, W. T. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Bond, K. C. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Lennox, K. P. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Aufderheide, M. B. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Seetho, I. M. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Roberson, G. P. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)
2014-07-17
This report compares recent HADES calculations of x-ray linear attenuation coefficients to previous MicroCT measurements made at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory’s High Energy Applications Facility (HEAF). The chief objective is to investigate what impact recent changes in HADES modeling have on validation results. We find that these changes have no obvious effect on the overall accuracy of the model. Detailed comparisons between recent and previous results are presented.
-
Model Validation and Verification of Data Mining from the ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Michael Horsfall
In this paper, we seek to present a hybrid method for Model Validation and Verification of Data Mining from the ... This model generally states the numerical value of knowledge .... procedures found in the field of software engineering should be ...
-
How to enhance the future use of energy policy simulation models through ex post validation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Qudrat-Ullah, Hassan
2017-01-01
Although simulation and modeling in general and system dynamics models in particular has long served the energy policy domain, ex post validation of these energy policy models is rarely addressed. In fact, ex post validation is a valuable area of research because it offers modelers a chance to enhance the future use of their simulation models by validating them against the field data. This paper contributes by presenting (i) a system dynamics simulation model, which was developed and used to do a three dimensional, socio-economical and environmental long-term assessment of Pakistan's energy policy in 1999, (ii) a systematic analysis of the 15-years old predictive scenarios produced by a system dynamics simulation model through ex post validation. How did the model predictions compare with the actual data? We report that the ongoing crisis of the electricity sector of Pakistan is unfolding, as the model-based scenarios had projected. - Highlights: • Argues that increased use of energy policy models is dependent on their credibility validation. • An ex post validation process is presented as a solution to build confidence in models. • A unique system dynamics model, MDESRAP, is presented. • The root mean square percentage error and Thiel's inequality statistics are applied. • The dynamic model, MDESRAP, is presented as an ex ante and ex post validated model.
-
Validation Test Results for Orthogonal Probe Eddy Current Thruster Inspection System
Wincheski, Russell A.
2007-01-01
Recent nondestructive evaluation efforts within NASA have focused on an inspection system for the detection of intergranular cracking originating in the relief radius of Primary Reaction Control System (PCRS) Thrusters. Of particular concern is deep cracking in this area which could lead to combustion leakage in the event of through wall cracking from the relief radius into an acoustic cavity of the combustion chamber. In order to reliably detect such defects while ensuring minimal false positives during inspection, the Orthogonal Probe Eddy Current (OPEC) system has been developed and an extensive validation study performed. This report describes the validation procedure, sample set, and inspection results as well as comparing validation flaws with the response from naturally occuring damage.
-
Modelling and validation of Proton exchange membrane fuel cell (PEMFC)
Mohiuddin, A. K. M.; Basran, N.; Khan, A. A.
2018-01-01
This paper is the outcome of a small scale fuel cell project. Fuel cell is an electrochemical device that converts energy from chemical reaction to electrical work. Proton Exchange Membrane Fuel Cell (PEMFC) is one of the different types of fuel cell, which is more efficient, having low operational temperature and fast start up capability results in high energy density. In this study, a mathematical model of 1.2 W PEMFC is developed and simulated using MATLAB software. This model describes the PEMFC behaviour under steady-state condition. This mathematical modeling of PEMFC determines the polarization curve, power generated, and the efficiency of the fuel cell. Simulation results were validated by comparing with experimental results obtained from the test of a single PEMFC with a 3 V motor. The performance of experimental PEMFC is little lower compared to simulated PEMFC, however both results were found in good agreement. Experiments on hydrogen flow rate also been conducted to obtain the amount of hydrogen consumed to produce electrical work on PEMFC.
-
Validation of CALMET/CALPUFF models simulations around a large power plant stack
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Hernandez-Garces, A.; Souto, J. A.; Rodriguez, A.; Saavedra, S.; Casares, J. J.
2015-07-01
Calmest/CALPUFF modeling system is frequently used in the study of atmospheric processes and pollution, and several validation tests were performed until now; nevertheless, most of them were based on experiments with a large compilation of surface and aloft meteorological measurements, rarely available. At the same time, the use of a large operational smokestack as tracer/pollutant source is not usual. In this work, first CALMET meteorological diagnostic model is nested to WRF meteorological prognostic model simulations (3x3 km{sup 2} horizontal resolution) over a complex terrain and coastal domain at NW Spain, covering 100x100 km{sup 2}, with a coal-fired power plant emitting SO{sub 2}. Simulations were performed during three different periods when SO{sub 2} hourly glc peaks were observed. NCEP reanalysis were applied as initial and boundary conditions. Yong Sei University-Pleim-Chang (YSU) PBL scheme was selected in the WRF model to provide the best input to three different CALMET horizontal resolutions, 1x1 km{sup 2}, 0.5x0.5 km{sup 2}, and 0.2x0.2 km{sup 2}. The best results, very similar between them, were achieved using the last two resolutions; therefore, the 0.5x0.5 km{sup 2} resolution was selected to test different CALMET meteorological inputs, using several combinations of WRF outputs and/or surface and upper-air measurements available in the simulation domain. With respect to meteorological aloft models output, CALMET PBL depth estimations are very similar to PBL depth estimations using upper-air measurements (rawinsondes), and significantly better than WRF PBL depth results. Regarding surface models surface output, the available meteorological sites were divided in two groups, one to provide meteorological input to CALMET (when applied), and another to models validation. Comparing WRF and CALMET outputs against surface measurements (from sites for models validation) the lowest RMSE was achieved using as CALMET input dataset WRF output combined with
-
Validation of CALMET/CALPUFF models simulations around a large power plant stack
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Hernandez-Garces, A.; Souto Rodriguez, J.A.; Saavedra, S.; Casares, J.J.
2015-07-01
CALMET/CALPUFF modeling system is frequently used in the study of atmospheric processes and pollution, and several validation tests were performed until now; nevertheless, most of them were based on experiments with a large compilation of surface and aloft meteorological measurements, rarely available. At the same time, the use of a large operational smokestack as tracer/pollutant source is not usual. In this work, first CALMET meteorological diagnostic model is nested to WRF meteorological prognostic model simulations (3x3 km2 horizontal resolution) over a complex terrain and coastal domain at NW Spain, covering 100x100 km2 , with a coal-fired power plant emitting SO2. Simulations were performed during three different periods when SO2 hourly glc peaks were observed. NCEP reanalysis were applied as initial and boundary conditions. Yong Sei University-Pleim-Chang (YSU) PBL scheme was selected in the WRF model to provide the best input to three different CALMET horizontal resolutions, 1x1 km2 , 0.5x0.5 km2 , and 0.2x0.2 km2. The best results, very similar between them, were achieved using the last two resolutions; therefore, the 0.5x0.5 km2 resolution was selected to test different CALMET meteorological inputs, using several combinations of WRF outputs and/or surface and upper-air measurements available in the simulation domain. With respect to meteorological aloft models output, CALMET PBL depth estimations are very similar to PBL depth estimations using upper-air measurements (rawinsondes), and significantly better than WRF PBL depth results. Regarding surface models surface output, the available meteorological sites were divided in two groups, one to provide meteorological input to CALMET (when applied), and another to models validation. Comparing WRF and CALMET outputs against surface measurements (from sites for models validation) the lowest RMSE was achieved using as CALMET input dataset WRF output combined with surface measurements (from sites for CALMET model
-
Validation of CALMET/CALPUFF models simulations around a large power plant stack
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hernandez-Garces, A.; Souto, J. A.; Rodriguez, A.; Saavedra, S.; Casares, J. J.
2015-01-01
Calmest/CALPUFF modeling system is frequently used in the study of atmospheric processes and pollution, and several validation tests were performed until now; nevertheless, most of them were based on experiments with a large compilation of surface and aloft meteorological measurements, rarely available. At the same time, the use of a large operational smokestack as tracer/pollutant source is not usual. In this work, first CALMET meteorological diagnostic model is nested to WRF meteorological prognostic model simulations (3x3 km 2 horizontal resolution) over a complex terrain and coastal domain at NW Spain, covering 100x100 km 2 , with a coal-fired power plant emitting SO 2 . Simulations were performed during three different periods when SO 2 hourly glc peaks were observed. NCEP reanalysis were applied as initial and boundary conditions. Yong Sei University-Pleim-Chang (YSU) PBL scheme was selected in the WRF model to provide the best input to three different CALMET horizontal resolutions, 1x1 km 2 , 0.5x0.5 km 2 , and 0.2x0.2 km 2 . The best results, very similar between them, were achieved using the last two resolutions; therefore, the 0.5x0.5 km 2 resolution was selected to test different CALMET meteorological inputs, using several combinations of WRF outputs and/or surface and upper-air measurements available in the simulation domain. With respect to meteorological aloft models output, CALMET PBL depth estimations are very similar to PBL depth estimations using upper-air measurements (rawinsondes), and significantly better than WRF PBL depth results. Regarding surface models surface output, the available meteorological sites were divided in two groups, one to provide meteorological input to CALMET (when applied), and another to models validation. Comparing WRF and CALMET outputs against surface measurements (from sites for models validation) the lowest RMSE was achieved using as CALMET input dataset WRF output combined with surface measurements (from sites for
-
Cuesta-Gragera, Ana; Navarro-Fontestad, Carmen; Mangas-Sanjuan, Victor; González-Álvarez, Isabel; García-Arieta, Alfredo; Trocóniz, Iñaki F; Casabó, Vicente G; Bermejo, Marival
2015-07-10
The objective of this paper is to apply a previously developed semi-physiologic pharmacokinetic model implemented in NONMEM to simulate bioequivalence trials (BE) of acetyl salicylic acid (ASA) in order to validate the model performance against ASA human experimental data. ASA is a drug with first-pass hepatic and intestinal metabolism following Michaelis-Menten kinetics that leads to the formation of two main metabolites in two generations (first and second generation metabolites). The first aim was to adapt the semi-physiological model for ASA in NOMMEN using ASA pharmacokinetic parameters from literature, showing its sequential metabolism. The second aim was to validate this model by comparing the results obtained in NONMEM simulations with published experimental data at a dose of 1000 mg. The validated model was used to simulate bioequivalence trials at 3 dose schemes (100, 1000 and 3000 mg) and with 6 test formulations with decreasing in vivo dissolution rate constants versus the reference formulation (kD 8-0.25 h (-1)). Finally, the third aim was to determine which analyte (parent drug, first generation or second generation metabolite) was more sensitive to changes in formulation performance. The validation results showed that the concentration-time curves obtained with the simulations reproduced closely the published experimental data, confirming model performance. The parent drug (ASA) was the analyte that showed to be more sensitive to the decrease in pharmaceutical quality, with the highest decrease in Cmax and AUC ratio between test and reference formulations. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
-
Validation of nuclear models used in space radiation shielding applications
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Norman, Ryan B.; Blattnig, Steve R.
2013-01-01
A program of verification and validation has been undertaken to assess the applicability of models to space radiation shielding applications and to track progress as these models are developed over time. In this work, simple validation metrics applicable to testing both model accuracy and consistency with experimental data are developed. The developed metrics treat experimental measurement uncertainty as an interval and are therefore applicable to cases in which epistemic uncertainty dominates the experimental data. To demonstrate the applicability of the metrics, nuclear physics models used by NASA for space radiation shielding applications are compared to an experimental database consisting of over 3600 experimental cross sections. A cumulative uncertainty metric is applied to the question of overall model accuracy, while a metric based on the median uncertainty is used to analyze the models from the perspective of model development by examining subsets of the model parameter space.
-
Lufri, L.; Fitri, R.; Yogica, R.
2018-04-01
The purpose of this study is to produce a learning model based on problem solving and meaningful learning standards by expert assessment or validation for the course of Animal Development. This research is a development research that produce the product in the form of learning model, which consist of sub product, namely: the syntax of learning model and student worksheets. All of these products are standardized through expert validation. The research data is the level of validity of all sub products obtained using questionnaire, filled by validators from various field of expertise (field of study, learning strategy, Bahasa). Data were analysed using descriptive statistics. The result of the research shows that the problem solving and meaningful learning model has been produced. Sub products declared appropriate by expert include the syntax of learning model and student worksheet.
-
Determination of clouds in MSG data for the validation of clouds in a regional climate model
Huckle, Roger
2009-01-01
Regional climate models (e.g. CLM) can help to asses the influence of the antropogenic climate change on the different regions of the earth. Validation of these models is very important. Satellite data are of great benefit, as data on a global scale and high temporal resolution is available. In this thesis a cloud detection and object based cloud classification for Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) was developed and used to validate CLM clouds. Results show sometimes too many clouds in the CLM.
-
Validation of individual and aggregate global flood hazard models for two major floods in Africa.
Trigg, M.; Bernhofen, M.; Whyman, C.
2017-12-01
A recent intercomparison of global flood hazard models undertaken by the Global Flood Partnership shows that there is an urgent requirement to undertake more validation of the models against flood observations. As part of the intercomparison, the aggregated model dataset resulting from the project was provided as open access data. We compare the individual and aggregated flood extent output from the six global models and test these against two major floods in the African Continent within the last decade, namely severe flooding on the Niger River in Nigeria in 2012, and on the Zambezi River in Mozambique in 2007. We test if aggregating different number and combination of models increases model fit to the observations compared with the individual model outputs. We present results that illustrate some of the challenges of comparing imperfect models with imperfect observations and also that of defining the probability of a real event in order to test standard model output probabilities. Finally, we propose a collective set of open access validation flood events, with associated observational data and descriptions that provide a standard set of tests across different climates and hydraulic conditions.
-
Testing the Validity of a Cognitive Behavioral Model for Gambling Behavior.
Raylu, Namrata; Oei, Tian Po S; Loo, Jasmine M Y; Tsai, Jung-Shun
2016-06-01
Currently, cognitive behavioral therapies appear to be one of the most studied treatments for gambling problems and studies show it is effective in treating gambling problems. However, cognitive behavior models have not been widely tested using statistical means. Thus, the aim of this study was to test the validity of the pathways postulated in the cognitive behavioral theory of gambling behavior using structural equation modeling (AMOS 20). Several questionnaires assessing a range of gambling specific variables (e.g., gambling urges, cognitions and behaviors) and gambling correlates (e.g., psychological states, and coping styles) were distributed to 969 participants from the community. Results showed that negative psychological states (i.e., depression, anxiety and stress) only directly predicted gambling behavior, whereas gambling urges predicted gambling behavior directly as well as indirectly via gambling cognitions. Avoidance coping predicted gambling behavior only indirectly via gambling cognitions. Negative psychological states were significantly related to gambling cognitions as well as avoidance coping. In addition, significant gender differences were also found. The results provided confirmation for the validity of the pathways postulated in the cognitive behavioral theory of gambling behavior. It also highlighted the importance of gender differences in conceptualizing gambling behavior.
-
Off-take Model of the SPACE Code and Its Validation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Oh, Myung Taek; Park, Chan Eok; Sohn, Jong Joo
2011-01-01
Liquid entrainment and vapor pull-through models of horizontal pipe have been implemented in the SPACE code. The model of SPACE accounts for the phase separation phenomena and computes the flux of mass and energy through an off-take attached to a horizontal pipe when stratified conditions occur in the horizontal pipe. This model is referred to as the off-take model. The importance of predicting the fluid conditions through an off-take in a small-break LOCA has been well known. In this case, the occurrence of the stratification can affect the break node void fraction and thus the break flow discharged from the primary system. In order to validate the off-take model newly developed for the SPACE code, a simulation of the HDU experiments has been performed. The main feature of the off-take model and its application results will be presented in this paper
-
Seismic behaviour of PWR fuel assemblies model and its validation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Queval, J.C.; Gantenbein, F.; Brochard, D.; Benjedidia, A.
1991-01-01
The validity of the models simulating the seismic behaviour of PWR cores can only be exactly demonstrated by seismic testing on groups of fuel assemblies. Shake table seismic tests of rows of assembly mock-ups, conducted by the CEA in conjunction with FRAMATOME, are presented in reference /1/. This paper addresses the initial comparisons between model and test results for a row of five assemblies in air. Two models are used: a model with a single beam per assembly, used regularly in accident analyses, and described in reference /2/, and a more refined 2-beam per assembly model, geared mainly towards interpretation of test results. The 2-beam model is discussed first, together with parametric studies used to characterize it, and the study of the assembly row for a period limited to 2 seconds and for different excitation levels. For the 1-beam model assembly used in applications, the row is studied over the total test time, i.e twenty seconds, which covers the average duration of the core seismic behaviour studies, and for a peak exciting acceleration value at 0.4 g, which corresponds to the SSE level of the reference spectrum
-
Procedure for the Selection and Validation of a Calibration Model I-Description and Application.
Desharnais, Brigitte; Camirand-Lemyre, Félix; Mireault, Pascal; Skinner, Cameron D
2017-05-01
Calibration model selection is required for all quantitative methods in toxicology and more broadly in bioanalysis. This typically involves selecting the equation order (quadratic or linear) and weighting factor correctly modelizing the data. A mis-selection of the calibration model will generate lower quality control (QC) accuracy, with an error up to 154%. Unfortunately, simple tools to perform this selection and tests to validate the resulting model are lacking. We present a stepwise, analyst-independent scheme for selection and validation of calibration models. The success rate of this scheme is on average 40% higher than a traditional "fit and check the QCs accuracy" method of selecting the calibration model. Moreover, the process was completely automated through a script (available in Supplemental Data 3) running in RStudio (free, open-source software). The need for weighting was assessed through an F-test using the variances of the upper limit of quantification and lower limit of quantification replicate measurements. When weighting was required, the choice between 1/x and 1/x2 was determined by calculating which option generated the smallest spread of weighted normalized variances. Finally, model order was selected through a partial F-test. The chosen calibration model was validated through Cramer-von Mises or Kolmogorov-Smirnov normality testing of the standardized residuals. Performance of the different tests was assessed using 50 simulated data sets per possible calibration model (e.g., linear-no weight, quadratic-no weight, linear-1/x, etc.). This first of two papers describes the tests, procedures and outcomes of the developed procedure using real LC-MS-MS results for the quantification of cocaine and naltrexone. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.
-
Predicting the ungauged basin : Model validation and realism assessment
Van Emmerik, T.H.M.; Mulder, G.; Eilander, D.; Piet, M.; Savenije, H.H.G.
2015-01-01
The hydrological decade on Predictions in Ungauged Basins (PUB) led to many new insights in model development, calibration strategies, data acquisition and uncertainty analysis. Due to a limited amount of published studies on genuinely ungauged basins, model validation and realism assessment of
-
Predicting the ungauged basin: model validation and realism assessment
van Emmerik, Tim; Mulder, Gert; Eilander, Dirk; Piet, Marijn; Savenije, Hubert
2015-01-01
The hydrological decade on Predictions in Ungauged Basins (PUB) led to many new insights in model development, calibration strategies, data acquisition and uncertainty analysis. Due to a limited amount of published studies on genuinely ungauged basins, model validation and realism assessment of
-
MAAP4 model and validation status
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Plys, M.G.; Paik, C.Y.; Henry, R.E.; Wu, Chunder; Suh, K.Y.; Sung Jin Lee; McCartney, M.A.; Wang, Zhe
1993-01-01
The MAAP 4 code for integrated severe accident analysis is intended to be used for Level 1 and Level 2 probabilistic safety assessment and severe accident management evaluations for current and advanced light water reactors. MAAP 4 can be used to determine which accidents lead to fuel damage and which are successfully terminated which accidents lead to fuel damage and which are successfully terminated before or after fuel damage (a level 1 application). It can also be used to determine which sequences result in fission product release to the environment and provide the time history of such releases (a level 2 application). The MAAP 4 thermal-hydraulic and fission product models and their validation are discussed here. This code is the newest version of MAAP offered by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) and it contains substantial mechanistic improvements over its predecessor, MAAP 3.0B
-
Validation of Inhibition Effect in the Cellulose Hydrolysis: a Dynamic Modelling Approach
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Morales Rodriguez, Ricardo; Tsai, Chien-Tai; Meyer, Anne S.
2011-01-01
Enzymatic hydrolysis is one of the main steps in the processing of bioethanol from lignocellulosic raw materials. However, complete understanding of the underlying phenomena is still under development. Hence, this study has focused on validation of the inhibition effects in the cellulosic biomass...... for parameter estimation (calibration) and validation purposes. The model predictions using calibrated parameters have shown good agreement with the validation data sets, which provides credibility to the model structure and the parameter values....
-
Validation of ASTEC V2 models for the behaviour of corium in the vessel lower head
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Carénini, L.; Fleurot, J.; Fichot, F.
2014-01-01
The paper is devoted to the presentation of validation cases carried out for the models describing the corium behaviour in the “lower plenum” of the reactor vessel implemented in the V2.0 version of the ASTEC integral code, jointly developed by IRSN (France) and GRS (Germany). In the ASTEC architecture, these models are grouped within the single ICARE module and they are all activated in typical accident scenarios. Therefore, it is important to check the validity of each individual model, as long as experiments are available for which a single physical process is involved. The results of ASTEC applications against the following experiments are presented: FARO (corium jet fragmentation), LIVE (heat transfer between a molten pool and the vessel), MASCA (separation and stratification of corium non miscible phases) and OLHF (mechanical failure of the vessel). Compared to the previous ASTEC V1.3 version, the validation matrix is extended. This work allows determining recommended values for some model parameters (e.g. debris particle size in the fragmentation model and criterion for debris bed liquefaction). Almost all the processes governing the corium behaviour, its thermal interaction with the vessel wall and the vessel failure are modelled in ASTEC and these models have been assessed individually with satisfactory results. The main uncertainties appear to be related to the calculation of transient evolutions
-
Hu, Ming-Hsia; Yeh, Chih-Jun; Chen, Tou-Rong; Wang, Ching-Yi
2014-01-01
A valid, time-efficient and easy-to-use instrument is important for busy clinical settings, large scale surveys, or community screening use. The purpose of this study was to validate the mobility hierarchical disability categorization model (an abbreviated model) by investigating its concurrent validity with the multidimensional hierarchical disability categorization model (a comprehensive model) and triangulating both models with physical performance measures in older adults. 604 community-dwelling older adults of at least 60 years in age volunteered to participate. Self-reported function on mobility, instrumental activities of daily living (IADL) and activities of daily living (ADL) domains were recorded and then the disability status determined based on both the multidimensional hierarchical categorization model and the mobility hierarchical categorization model. The physical performance measures, consisting of grip strength and usual and fastest gait speeds (UGS, FGS), were collected on the same day. Both categorization models showed high correlation (γs = 0.92, p categorization models. The results of multiple regression analysis indicated that both models individually explain similar amount of variance on all physical performances, with adjustments for age, sex, and number of comorbidities. Our results found that the mobility hierarchical disability categorization model is a valid and time efficient tool for large survey or screening use.
-
Hawes, Frederick T.; Berk, Alexander; Richtsmeier, Steven C.
2016-05-01
A validated, polarimetric 3-dimensional simulation capability, P-MCScene, is being developed by generalizing Spectral Sciences' Monte Carlo-based synthetic scene simulation model, MCScene, to include calculation of all 4 Stokes components. P-MCScene polarimetric optical databases will be generated by a new version (MODTRAN7) of the government-standard MODTRAN radiative transfer algorithm. The conversion of MODTRAN6 to a polarimetric model is being accomplished by (1) introducing polarimetric data, by (2) vectorizing the MODTRAN radiation calculations and by (3) integrating the newly revised and validated vector discrete ordinate model VDISORT3. Early results, presented here, demonstrate a clear pathway to the long-term goal of fully validated polarimetric models.
-
Validation and Comparison of a Model of the Effect of Sea-Level Rise on Coastal Wetlands.
Mogensen, Laura A; Rogers, Kerrylee
2018-01-22
Models are used to project coastal wetland distribution under future sea-level rise scenarios to assist decision-making. Model validation and comparison was used to investigate error and uncertainty in the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model, a readily available model with minimal validation, particularly for wetlands beyond North America. Accurate parameterisation is required to improve the performance of the model, and indeed any spatial model. Consideration of tidal attenuation further enhances model performance, particularly for coastal wetlands located within estuaries along wave-dominated coastlines. The model does not simulate vegetation changes that are known to occur, particularly when sedimentation exceeds rates of sea-level rise resulting in shoreline progradation. Model performance was reasonable over decadal timescales, decreasing as the time-scale of retrospection increased due to compounding of errors. Comparison with other deterministic models showed reasonable agreement by 2100. However, given the uncertainty of the future and the unpredictable nature of coastal wetlands, it is difficult to ascertain which model could be realistic enough to meet its intended purpose. Model validation and comparison are useful for assessing model efficacy and parameterisation, and should be applied before application of any spatially explicit model of coastal wetland response to sea-level rise.
-
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Hansen, C., E-mail: hansec@uw.edu [PSI-Center, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington 98195 (United States); Columbia University, New York, New York 10027 (United States); Victor, B.; Morgan, K.; Hossack, A.; Sutherland, D. [HIT-SI Group, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington 98195 (United States); Jarboe, T.; Nelson, B. A. [HIT-SI Group, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington 98195 (United States); PSI-Center, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington 98195 (United States); Marklin, G. [PSI-Center, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington 98195 (United States)
2015-05-15
We present application of three scalar metrics derived from the Biorthogonal Decomposition (BD) technique to evaluate the level of agreement between macroscopic plasma dynamics in different data sets. BD decomposes large data sets, as produced by distributed diagnostic arrays, into principal mode structures without assumptions on spatial or temporal structure. These metrics have been applied to validation of the Hall-MHD model using experimental data from the Helicity Injected Torus with Steady Inductive helicity injection experiment. Each metric provides a measure of correlation between mode structures extracted from experimental data and simulations for an array of 192 surface-mounted magnetic probes. Numerical validation studies have been performed using the NIMROD code, where the injectors are modeled as boundary conditions on the flux conserver, and the PSI-TET code, where the entire plasma volume is treated. Initial results from a comprehensive validation study of high performance operation with different injector frequencies are presented, illustrating application of the BD method. Using a simplified (constant, uniform density and temperature) Hall-MHD model, simulation results agree with experimental observation for two of the three defined metrics when the injectors are driven with a frequency of 14.5 kHz.
-
Validation of coastal oceanographic models at Forsmark. Site descriptive modelling SDM-Site Forsmark
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Engqvist, Anders (A och I Engqvist Konsult HB, Vaxholm (SE)); Andrejev, Oleg (Finnish Inst. of Marine Research, Helsinki (FI))
2008-01-15
The Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) is undertaking site characterisation at two different locations, the Forsmark and the Simpevarp areas, with the objective of siting a geological repository for spent nuclear fuel. The characterisation work is divided into an initial site investigation phase and a complete site investigation phase. In this context, the water exchange of the coastal zone is one link of the chain of possible nuclide transport mechanisms that must be assessed in the site description of potential repository areas. For the purpose of validating the pair of nested 3D-models employed to simulate the water exchange in the near-shore coastal zone in the Forsmark area, an encompassing measurement program entailing six stations has been performed. The design of this program was to first assess to what degree the forcing of the fine resolution (FR) model of the Forsmark study area at its interfacial boundary to the coarse resolution (CR) model of the entire Baltic was reproduced. In addition to this scrutiny it is of particular interest how the time-varying density-determining properties, salinity and temperature, at the borders are propagated into the FR-domain, since this corresponds to the most efficient mode of water exchange. An important part of the validation process has been to carefully evaluate which measurement data that can be considered reliable. The result was that several periods of foremost near-surface salinity data had to be discarded due to growth of algae on the conductivity sensors. Lack of thorough absolute calibration of the salinity meters also necessitates dismissal of measurement data. Relative the assessed data that can be accepted as adequate, the outcome of the validation can be summarized in five points: (i) The surface-most salinity of the CR-model drifts downward a little less than one practical salinity unit (psu) per year, requiring that the ensuing correlation analysis be subdivided into periods of a
-
Validation of coastal oceanographic models at Forsmark. Site descriptive modelling SDM-Site Forsmark
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Engqvist, Anders; Andrejev, Oleg
2008-01-01
The Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) is undertaking site characterisation at two different locations, the Forsmark and the Simpevarp areas, with the objective of siting a geological repository for spent nuclear fuel. The characterisation work is divided into an initial site investigation phase and a complete site investigation phase. In this context, the water exchange of the coastal zone is one link of the chain of possible nuclide transport mechanisms that must be assessed in the site description of potential repository areas. For the purpose of validating the pair of nested 3D-models employed to simulate the water exchange in the near-shore coastal zone in the Forsmark area, an encompassing measurement program entailing six stations has been performed. The design of this program was to first assess to what degree the forcing of the fine resolution (FR) model of the Forsmark study area at its interfacial boundary to the coarse resolution (CR) model of the entire Baltic was reproduced. In addition to this scrutiny it is of particular interest how the time-varying density-determining properties, salinity and temperature, at the borders are propagated into the FR-domain, since this corresponds to the most efficient mode of water exchange. An important part of the validation process has been to carefully evaluate which measurement data that can be considered reliable. The result was that several periods of foremost near-surface salinity data had to be discarded due to growth of algae on the conductivity sensors. Lack of thorough absolute calibration of the salinity meters also necessitates dismissal of measurement data. Relative the assessed data that can be accepted as adequate, the outcome of the validation can be summarized in five points: (i) The surface-most salinity of the CR-model drifts downward a little less than one practical salinity unit (psu) per year, requiring that the ensuing correlation analysis be subdivided into periods of a
-
A process improvement model for software verification and validation
Callahan, John; Sabolish, George
1994-01-01
We describe ongoing work at the NASA Independent Verification and Validation (IV&V) Facility to establish a process improvement model for software verification and validation (V&V) organizations. This model, similar to those used by some software development organizations, uses measurement-based techniques to identify problem areas and introduce incremental improvements. We seek to replicate this model for organizations involved in V&V on large-scale software development projects such as EOS and space station. At the IV&V Facility, a university research group and V&V contractors are working together to collect metrics across projects in order to determine the effectiveness of V&V and improve its application. Since V&V processes are intimately tied to development processes, this paper also examines the repercussions for development organizations in large-scale efforts.
-
Thermal hydraulic model validation for HOR mixed core fuel management
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gibcus, H.P.M.; Vries, J.W. de; Leege, P.F.A. de
1997-01-01
A thermal-hydraulic core management model has been developed for the Hoger Onderwijsreactor (HOR), a 2 MW pool-type university research reactor. The model was adopted for safety analysis purposes in the framework of HEU/LEU core conversion studies. It is applied in the thermal-hydraulic computer code SHORT (Steady-state HOR Thermal-hydraulics) which is presently in use in designing core configurations and for in-core fuel management. An elaborate measurement program was performed for establishing the core hydraulic characteristics for a variety of conditions. The hydraulic data were obtained with a dummy fuel element with special equipment allowing a.o. direct measurement of the true core flow rate. Using these data the thermal-hydraulic model was validated experimentally. The model, experimental tests, and model validation are discussed. (author)
-
Transverse Crack Modeling and Validation in Rotor Systems, Including Thermal Effects
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
N. Bachschmid
2003-01-01
Full Text Available This article describes a model that allows the simulation of the static behavior of a transverse crack in a horizontal rotor under the action of weight and other possible static loads and the dynamic behavior of cracked rotating shaft. The crack breathes—that is, the mechanism of the crack's opening and closing is ruled by the stress on the cracked section exerted by the external loads. In a rotor, the stresses are time-dependent and have a period equal to the period of rotation; thus, the crack periodically breathes. An original, simplified model allows cracks of various shapes to be modeled and thermal stresses to be taken into account, as they may influence the opening and closing mechanism. The proposed method was validated by using two criteria. First the crack's breathing mechanism, simulated by the model, was compared with the results obtained by a nonlinear, threedimensional finite element model calculation, and a good agreement in the results was observed. Then the proposed model allowed the development of the equivalent cracked beam. The results of this model were compared with those obtained by the three-dimensional finite element model. Also in this case, there was a good agreement in the results.
-
First experiments results about the engineering model of Rapsodie
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Chalot, A.; Ginier, R.; Sauvage, M.
1964-01-01
This report deals with the first series of experiments carried out on the engineering model of Rapsodie and on an associated sodium facility set in a laboratory hall of Cadarache. It conveys more precisely: 1/ - The difficulties encountered during the erection and assembly of the engineering model and a compilation of the results of the first series of experiments and tests carried out on this installation (loading of the subassemblies preheating, thermal chocks...). 2/ - The experiments and tests carried out on the two prototypes control rod drive mechanisms which brought to the choice for the design of the definitive drive mechanism. As a whole, the results proved the validity of the general design principles adopted for Rapsodie. (authors) [fr
-
Validation and uncertainty analysis of a pre-treatment 2D dose prediction model
Baeza, Jose A.; Wolfs, Cecile J. A.; Nijsten, Sebastiaan M. J. J. G.; Verhaegen, Frank
2018-02-01
Independent verification of complex treatment delivery with megavolt photon beam radiotherapy (RT) has been effectively used to detect and prevent errors. This work presents the validation and uncertainty analysis of a model that predicts 2D portal dose images (PDIs) without a patient or phantom in the beam. The prediction model is based on an exponential point dose model with separable primary and secondary photon fluence components. The model includes a scatter kernel, off-axis ratio map, transmission values and penumbra kernels for beam-delimiting components. These parameters were derived through a model fitting procedure supplied with point dose and dose profile measurements of radiation fields. The model was validated against a treatment planning system (TPS; Eclipse) and radiochromic film measurements for complex clinical scenarios, including volumetric modulated arc therapy (VMAT). Confidence limits on fitted model parameters were calculated based on simulated measurements. A sensitivity analysis was performed to evaluate the effect of the parameter uncertainties on the model output. For the maximum uncertainty, the maximum deviating measurement sets were propagated through the fitting procedure and the model. The overall uncertainty was assessed using all simulated measurements. The validation of the prediction model against the TPS and the film showed a good agreement, with on average 90.8% and 90.5% of pixels passing a (2%,2 mm) global gamma analysis respectively, with a low dose threshold of 10%. The maximum and overall uncertainty of the model is dependent on the type of clinical plan used as input. The results can be used to study the robustness of the model. A model for predicting accurate 2D pre-treatment PDIs in complex RT scenarios can be used clinically and its uncertainties can be taken into account.
-
Validation of statistical models for creep rupture by parametric analysis
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Bolton, J., E-mail: john.bolton@uwclub.net [65, Fisher Ave., Rugby, Warks CV22 5HW (United Kingdom)
2012-01-15
Statistical analysis is an efficient method for the optimisation of any candidate mathematical model of creep rupture data, and for the comparative ranking of competing models. However, when a series of candidate models has been examined and the best of the series has been identified, there is no statistical criterion to determine whether a yet more accurate model might be devised. Hence there remains some uncertainty that the best of any series examined is sufficiently accurate to be considered reliable as a basis for extrapolation. This paper proposes that models should be validated primarily by parametric graphical comparison to rupture data and rupture gradient data. It proposes that no mathematical model should be considered reliable for extrapolation unless the visible divergence between model and data is so small as to leave no apparent scope for further reduction. This study is based on the data for a 12% Cr alloy steel used in BS PD6605:1998 to exemplify its recommended statistical analysis procedure. The models considered in this paper include a) a relatively simple model, b) the PD6605 recommended model and c) a more accurate model of somewhat greater complexity. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The paper discusses the validation of creep rupture models derived from statistical analysis. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer It demonstrates that models can be satisfactorily validated by a visual-graphic comparison of models to data. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The method proposed utilises test data both as conventional rupture stress and as rupture stress gradient. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The approach is shown to be more reliable than a well-established and widely used method (BS PD6605).
-
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Dos Santos, Adimir; Siqueira, Paulo de Tarso D.; Andrade e Silva, Graciete Simões; Grant, Carlos; Tarazaga, Ariel E.; Barberis, Claudia
2013-01-01
In year 2008 the Atomic Energy National Commission (CNEA) of Argentina, and the Brazilian Institute of Energetic and Nuclear Research (IPEN), under the frame of Nuclear Energy Argentine Brazilian Agreement (COBEN), among many others, included the project “Validation and Verification of Calculation Methods used for Research and Experimental Reactors . At this time, it was established that the validation was to be performed with models implemented in the deterministic codes HUEMUL and PUMA (cell and reactor codes) developed by CNEA and those ones implemented in MCNP by CNEA and IPEN. The necessary data for these validations would correspond to theoretical-experimental reference cases in the research reactor IPEN/MB-01 located in São Paulo, Brazil. The staff of the group Reactor and Nuclear Power Studies (SERC) of CNEA, from the argentine side, performed calculations with deterministic models (HUEMUL-PUMA) and probabilistic methods (MCNP) modeling a great number of physical situations of de reactor, which previously have been studied and modeled by members of the Center of Nuclear Engineering of the IPEN, whose results were extensively provided to CNEA. In this paper results of comparison of calculated and experimental results for critical configurations, temperature coefficients, kinetic parameters and fission rates evaluated with probabilistic models spatial distributions are shown. (author)
-
Basic Modelling principles and Validation of Software for Prediction of Collision Damage
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Simonsen, Bo Cerup
2000-01-01
This report describes basic modelling principles, the theoretical background and validation examples for the collision damage prediction module in the ISESO stand-alone software.......This report describes basic modelling principles, the theoretical background and validation examples for the collision damage prediction module in the ISESO stand-alone software....
-
Calibrating and validating a FE model for long-term behavior of RC beams
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Tošić Nikola D.
2014-01-01
Full Text Available This study presents the research carried out in finding an optimal finite element (FE model for calculating the long-term behavior of reinforced concrete (RC beams. A multi-purpose finite element software DIANA was used. A benchmark test in the form of a simply supported beam loaded in four point bending was selected for model calibration. The result was the choice of 3-node beam elements, a multi-directional fixed crack model with constant stress cut-off, nonlinear tension softening and constant shear retention and a creep and shrinkage model according to CEB-FIP Model Code 1990. The model was then validated on 14 simply supported beams and 6 continuous beams. Good agreement was found with experimental results (within ±15%.
-
Briggs, Andrew H; Baker, Timothy; Risebrough, Nancy A; Chambers, Mike; Gonzalez-McQuire, Sebastian; Ismaila, Afisi S; Exuzides, Alex; Colby, Chris; Tabberer, Maggie; Muellerova, Hana; Locantore, Nicholas; Rutten van Mölken, Maureen P M H; Lomas, David A
2017-05-01
The recent joint International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research / Society for Medical Decision Making Modeling Good Research Practices Task Force emphasized the importance of conceptualizing and validating models. We report a new model of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) (part of the Galaxy project) founded on a conceptual model, implemented using a novel linked-equation approach, and internally validated. An expert panel developed a conceptual model including causal relationships between disease attributes, progression, and final outcomes. Risk equations describing these relationships were estimated using data from the Evaluation of COPD Longitudinally to Identify Predictive Surrogate Endpoints (ECLIPSE) study, with costs estimated from the TOwards a Revolution in COPD Health (TORCH) study. Implementation as a linked-equation model enabled direct estimation of health service costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) for COPD patients over their lifetimes. Internal validation compared 3 years of predicted cohort experience with ECLIPSE results. At 3 years, the Galaxy COPD model predictions of annual exacerbation rate and annual decline in forced expiratory volume in 1 second fell within the ECLIPSE data confidence limits, although 3-year overall survival was outside the observed confidence limits. Projections of the risk equations over time permitted extrapolation to patient lifetimes. Averaging the predicted cost/QALY outcomes for the different patients within the ECLIPSE cohort gives an estimated lifetime cost of £25,214 (undiscounted)/£20,318 (discounted) and lifetime QALYs of 6.45 (undiscounted/5.24 [discounted]) per ECLIPSE patient. A new form of model for COPD was conceptualized, implemented, and internally validated, based on a series of linked equations using epidemiological data (ECLIPSE) and cost data (TORCH). This Galaxy model predicts COPD outcomes from treatment effects on disease attributes such as lung function
-
Validation of A Global Hydrological Model
Doell, P.; Lehner, B.; Kaspar, F.; Vassolo, S.
due to the precipitation mea- surement errors. Even though the explicit modeling of wetlands and lakes leads to a much improved modeling of both the vertical water balance and the lateral transport of water, not enough information is included in WGHM to accurately capture the hy- drology of these water bodies. Certainly, the reliability of model results is highest at the locations at which WGHM was calibrated. The validation indicates that reliability for cells inside calibrated basins is satisfactory if the basin is relatively homogeneous. Analyses of the few available stations outside of calibrated basins indicate a reason- ably high model reliability, particularly in humid regions.
-
Validation Assessment of a Glass-to-Metal Seal Finite-Element Model
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Jamison, Ryan Dale [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Buchheit, Thomas E. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Emery, John M [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Romero, Vicente J. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Stavig, Mark E. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Newton, Clay S. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Brown, Arthur [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)
2017-10-01
Sealing glasses are ubiquitous in high pressure and temperature engineering applications, such as hermetic feed-through electrical connectors. A common connector technology are glass-to-metal seals where a metal shell compresses a sealing glass to create a hermetic seal. Though finite-element analysis has been used to understand and design glass-to-metal seals for many years, there has been little validation of these models. An indentation technique was employed to measure the residual stress on the surface of a simple glass-to-metal seal. Recently developed rate- dependent material models of both Schott 8061 and 304L VAR stainless steel have been applied to a finite-element model of the simple glass-to-metal seal. Model predictions of residual stress based on the evolution of material models are shown. These model predictions are compared to measured data. Validity of the finite- element predictions is discussed. It will be shown that the finite-element model of the glass-to-metal seal accurately predicts the mean residual stress in the glass near the glass-to-metal interface and is valid for this quantity of interest.
-
Validation of an employee satisfaction model: A structural equation model approach
Ophillia Ledimo; Nico Martins
2015-01-01
The purpose of this study was to validate an employee satisfaction model and to determine the relationships between the different dimensions of the concept, using the structural equation modelling approach (SEM). A cross-sectional quantitative survey design was used to collect data from a random sample of (n=759) permanent employees of a parastatal organisation. Data was collected using the Employee Satisfaction Survey (ESS) to measure employee satisfaction dimensions. Following the steps of ...
-
Validated predictive modelling of the environmental resistome.
Amos, Gregory C A; Gozzard, Emma; Carter, Charlotte E; Mead, Andrew; Bowes, Mike J; Hawkey, Peter M; Zhang, Lihong; Singer, Andrew C; Gaze, William H; Wellington, Elizabeth M H
2015-06-01
Multi-drug-resistant bacteria pose a significant threat to public health. The role of the environment in the overall rise in antibiotic-resistant infections and risk to humans is largely unknown. This study aimed to evaluate drivers of antibiotic-resistance levels across the River Thames catchment, model key biotic, spatial and chemical variables and produce predictive models for future risk assessment. Sediment samples from 13 sites across the River Thames basin were taken at four time points across 2011 and 2012. Samples were analysed for class 1 integron prevalence and enumeration of third-generation cephalosporin-resistant bacteria. Class 1 integron prevalence was validated as a molecular marker of antibiotic resistance; levels of resistance showed significant geospatial and temporal variation. The main explanatory variables of resistance levels at each sample site were the number, proximity, size and type of surrounding wastewater-treatment plants. Model 1 revealed treatment plants accounted for 49.5% of the variance in resistance levels. Other contributing factors were extent of different surrounding land cover types (for example, Neutral Grassland), temporal patterns and prior rainfall; when modelling all variables the resulting model (Model 2) could explain 82.9% of variations in resistance levels in the whole catchment. Chemical analyses correlated with key indicators of treatment plant effluent and a model (Model 3) was generated based on water quality parameters (contaminant and macro- and micro-nutrient levels). Model 2 was beta tested on independent sites and explained over 78% of the variation in integron prevalence showing a significant predictive ability. We believe all models in this study are highly useful tools for informing and prioritising mitigation strategies to reduce the environmental resistome.
-
Evaluation factors for verification and validation of low-level waste disposal site models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Moran, M.S.; Mezga, L.J.
1982-01-01
The purpose of this paper is to identify general evaluation factors to be used to verify and validate LLW disposal site performance models in order to assess their site-specific applicability and to determine their accuracy and sensitivity. It is intended that the information contained in this paper be employed by model users involved with LLW site performance model verification and validation. It should not be construed as providing protocols, but rather as providing a framework for the preparation of specific protocols or procedures. A brief description of each evaluation factor is provided. The factors have been categorized according to recommended use during either the model verification or the model validation process. The general responsibilities of the developer and user are provided. In many cases it is difficult to separate the responsibilities of the developer and user, but the user is ultimately accountable for both verification and validation processes. 4 refs
-
Jandt, Simon; Laagemaa, Priidik; Janssen, Frank
2014-05-01
The systematic and objective comparison between output from a numerical ocean model and a set of observations, called validation in the context of this presentation, is a beneficial activity at several stages, starting from early steps in model development and ending at the quality control of model based products delivered to customers. Even though the importance of this kind of validation work is widely acknowledged it is often not among the most popular tasks in ocean modelling. In order to ease the validation work a comprehensive toolbox has been developed in the framework of the MyOcean-2 project. The objective of this toolbox is to carry out validation integrating different data sources, e.g. time-series at stations, vertical profiles, surface fields or along track satellite data, with one single program call. The validation toolbox, implemented in MATLAB, features all parts of the validation process - ranging from read-in procedures of datasets to the graphical and numerical output of statistical metrics of the comparison. The basic idea is to have only one well-defined validation schedule for all applications, in which all parts of the validation process are executed. Each part, e.g. read-in procedures, forms a module in which all available functions of this particular part are collected. The interface between the functions, the module and the validation schedule is highly standardized. Functions of a module are set up for certain validation tasks, new functions can be implemented into the appropriate module without affecting the functionality of the toolbox. The functions are assigned for each validation task in user specific settings, which are externally stored in so-called namelists and gather all information of the used datasets as well as paths and metadata. In the framework of the MyOcean-2 project the toolbox is frequently used to validate the forecast products of the Baltic Sea Marine Forecasting Centre. Hereby the performance of any new product
-
Hawaii Solar Integration Study: Solar Modeling Developments and Study Results; Preprint
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Orwig, K.; Corbus, D.; Piwko, R.; Schuerger, M.; Matsuura, M.; Roose, L.
2012-12-01
The Hawaii Solar Integration Study (HSIS) is a follow-up to the Oahu Wind Integration and Transmission Study completed in 2010. HSIS focuses on the impacts of higher penetrations of solar energy on the electrical grid and on other generation. HSIS goes beyond the island of Oahu and investigates Maui as well. The study examines reserve strategies, impacts on thermal unit commitment and dispatch, utilization of energy storage, renewable energy curtailment, and other aspects of grid reliability and operation. For the study, high-frequency (2-second) solar power profiles were generated using a new combined Numerical Weather Prediction model/ stochastic-kinematic cloud model approach, which represents the 'sharp-edge' effects of clouds passing over solar facilities. As part of the validation process, the solar data was evaluated using a variety of analysis techniques including wavelets, power spectral densities, ramp distributions, extreme values, and cross correlations. This paper provides an overview of the study objectives, results of the solar profile validation, and study results.
-
Validation of elk resource selection models with spatially independent data
Priscilla K. Coe; Bruce K. Johnson; Michael J. Wisdom; John G. Cook; Marty Vavra; Ryan M. Nielson
2011-01-01
Knowledge of how landscape features affect wildlife resource use is essential for informed management. Resource selection functions often are used to make and validate predictions about landscape use; however, resource selection functions are rarely validated with data from landscapes independent of those from which the models were built. This problem has severely...
-
Using Indexed and Synchronous Events to Model and Validate Cyber-Physical Systems
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Chen-Wei Wang
2015-06-01
Full Text Available Timed Transition Models (TTMs are event-based descriptions for modelling, specifying, and verifying discrete real-time systems. An event can be spontaneous, fair, or timed with specified bounds. TTMs have a textual syntax, an operational semantics, and an automated tool supporting linear-time temporal logic. We extend TTMs and its tool with two novel modelling features for writing high-level specifications: indexed events and synchronous events. Indexed events allow for concise description of behaviour common to a set of actors. The indexing construct allows us to select a specific actor and to specify a temporal property for that actor. We use indexed events to validate the requirements of a train control system. Synchronous events allow developers to decompose simultaneous state updates into actions of separate events. To specify the intended data flow among synchronized actions, we use primed variables to reference the post-state (i.e., one resulted from taking the synchronized actions. The TTM tool automatically infers the data flow from synchronous events, and reports errors on inconsistencies due to circular data flow. We use synchronous events to validate part of the requirements of a nuclear shutdown system. In both case studies, we show how the new notation facilitates the formal validation of system requirements, and use the TTM tool to verify safety, liveness, and real-time properties.
-
From deep TLS validation to ensembles of atomic models built from elemental motions
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Urzhumtsev, Alexandre; Afonine, Pavel V.; Van Benschoten, Andrew H.; Fraser, James S.; Adams, Paul D.
2015-01-01
Procedures are described for extracting the vibration and libration parameters corresponding to a given set of TLS matrices and their simultaneous validation. Knowledge of these parameters allows the generation of structural ensembles corresponding to these matrices. The translation–libration–screw model first introduced by Cruickshank, Schomaker and Trueblood describes the concerted motions of atomic groups. Using TLS models can improve the agreement between calculated and experimental diffraction data. Because the T, L and S matrices describe a combination of atomic vibrations and librations, TLS models can also potentially shed light on molecular mechanisms involving correlated motions. However, this use of TLS models in mechanistic studies is hampered by the difficulties in translating the results of refinement into molecular movement or a structural ensemble. To convert the matrices into a constituent molecular movement, the matrix elements must satisfy several conditions. Refining the T, L and S matrix elements as independent parameters without taking these conditions into account may result in matrices that do not represent concerted molecular movements. Here, a mathematical framework and the computational tools to analyze TLS matrices, resulting in either explicit decomposition into descriptions of the underlying motions or a report of broken conditions, are described. The description of valid underlying motions can then be output as a structural ensemble. All methods are implemented as part of the PHENIX project
-
From deep TLS validation to ensembles of atomic models built from elemental motions
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Urzhumtsev, Alexandre, E-mail: sacha@igbmc.fr [Centre for Integrative Biology, Institut de Génétique et de Biologie Moléculaire et Cellulaire, CNRS–INSERM–UdS, 1 Rue Laurent Fries, BP 10142, 67404 Illkirch (France); Université de Lorraine, BP 239, 54506 Vandoeuvre-les-Nancy (France); Afonine, Pavel V. [Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, California (United States); Van Benschoten, Andrew H.; Fraser, James S. [University of California, San Francisco, San Francisco, CA 94158 (United States); Adams, Paul D. [Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, California (United States); University of California Berkeley, Berkeley, CA 94720 (United States); Centre for Integrative Biology, Institut de Génétique et de Biologie Moléculaire et Cellulaire, CNRS–INSERM–UdS, 1 Rue Laurent Fries, BP 10142, 67404 Illkirch (France)
2015-07-28
Procedures are described for extracting the vibration and libration parameters corresponding to a given set of TLS matrices and their simultaneous validation. Knowledge of these parameters allows the generation of structural ensembles corresponding to these matrices. The translation–libration–screw model first introduced by Cruickshank, Schomaker and Trueblood describes the concerted motions of atomic groups. Using TLS models can improve the agreement between calculated and experimental diffraction data. Because the T, L and S matrices describe a combination of atomic vibrations and librations, TLS models can also potentially shed light on molecular mechanisms involving correlated motions. However, this use of TLS models in mechanistic studies is hampered by the difficulties in translating the results of refinement into molecular movement or a structural ensemble. To convert the matrices into a constituent molecular movement, the matrix elements must satisfy several conditions. Refining the T, L and S matrix elements as independent parameters without taking these conditions into account may result in matrices that do not represent concerted molecular movements. Here, a mathematical framework and the computational tools to analyze TLS matrices, resulting in either explicit decomposition into descriptions of the underlying motions or a report of broken conditions, are described. The description of valid underlying motions can then be output as a structural ensemble. All methods are implemented as part of the PHENIX project.
-
Zhao, Zhibiao
2011-06-01
We address the nonparametric model validation problem for hidden Markov models with partially observable variables and hidden states. We achieve this goal by constructing a nonparametric simultaneous confidence envelope for transition density function of the observable variables and checking whether the parametric density estimate is contained within such an envelope. Our specification test procedure is motivated by a functional connection between the transition density of the observable variables and the Markov transition kernel of the hidden states. Our approach is applicable for continuous time diffusion models, stochastic volatility models, nonlinear time series models, and models with market microstructure noise.
-
Hasdemir, Dicle; Hoefsloot, Huub C J; Smilde, Age K
2015-07-08
Most ordinary differential equation (ODE) based modeling studies in systems biology involve a hold-out validation step for model validation. In this framework a pre-determined part of the data is used as validation data and, therefore it is not used for estimating the parameters of the model. The model is assumed to be validated if the model predictions on the validation dataset show good agreement with the data. Model selection between alternative model structures can also be performed in the same setting, based on the predictive power of the model structures on the validation dataset. However, drawbacks associated with this approach are usually under-estimated. We have carried out simulations by using a recently published High Osmolarity Glycerol (HOG) pathway from S.cerevisiae to demonstrate these drawbacks. We have shown that it is very important how the data is partitioned and which part of the data is used for validation purposes. The hold-out validation strategy leads to biased conclusions, since it can lead to different validation and selection decisions when different partitioning schemes are used. Furthermore, finding sensible partitioning schemes that would lead to reliable decisions are heavily dependent on the biology and unknown model parameters which turns the problem into a paradox. This brings the need for alternative validation approaches that offer flexible partitioning of the data. For this purpose, we have introduced a stratified random cross-validation (SRCV) approach that successfully overcomes these limitations. SRCV leads to more stable decisions for both validation and selection which are not biased by underlying biological phenomena. Furthermore, it is less dependent on the specific noise realization in the data. Therefore, it proves to be a promising alternative to the standard hold-out validation strategy.
-
Validity of "Hi_Science" as instructional media based-android refer to experiential learning model
Qamariah, Jumadi, Senam, Wilujeng, Insih
2017-08-01
Hi_Science is instructional media based-android in learning science on material environmental pollution and global warming. This study is aimed: (a) to show the display of Hi_Science that will be applied in Junior High School, and (b) to describe the validity of Hi_Science. Hi_Science as instructional media created with colaboration of innovative learning model and development of technology at the current time. Learning media selected is based-android and collaborated with experiential learning model as an innovative learning model. Hi_Science had adapted student worksheet by Taufiq (2015). Student worksheet had very good category by two expert lecturers and two science teachers (Taufik, 2015). This student worksheet is refined and redeveloped in android as an instructional media which can be used by students for learning science not only in the classroom, but also at home. Therefore, student worksheet which has become instructional media based-android must be validated again. Hi_Science has been validated by two experts. The validation is based on assessment of meterials aspects and media aspects. The data collection was done by media assessment instrument. The result showed the assessment of material aspects has obtained the average value 4,72 with percentage of agreement 96,47%, that means Hi_Science on the material aspects is in excellent category or very valid category. The assessment of media aspects has obtained the average value 4,53 with percentage of agreement 98,70%, that means Hi_Science on the media aspects is in excellent category or very valid category. It was concluded that Hi_Science as instructional media can be applied in the junior high school.
-
An experimentally validated simulation model for a four-stage spray dryer
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Petersen, Lars Norbert; Poulsen, Niels Kjølstad; Niemann, Hans Henrik
2017-01-01
mathematical model is an index-1 differential algebraic equation (DAE) model with 12 states, 9 inputs, 8 disturbances, and 30 parameters. The parameters in the model are identified from well-excited experimental data obtained from the industrialtype spray dryer. The simulated outputs ofthe model are validated...... is divided into four consecutive stages: a primary spray drying stage, two heated fluid bed stages, and a cooling fluid bed stage. Each of these stages in the model is assumed ideally mixed and the dynamics are described by mass- and energy balances. These balance equations are coupled with constitutive...... equations such as a thermodynamic model, the water evaporation rate, the heat transfer rates, and an equation for the stickiness of the powder (glass transition temperature). Laboratory data is used to model the equilibrium moisture content and the glass transition temperature of the powder. The resulting...
-
Validation of the Continuum of Care Conceptual Model for Athletic Therapy
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mark R. Lafave
2015-01-01
Full Text Available Utilization of conceptual models in field-based emergency care currently borrows from existing standards of medical and paramedical professions. The purpose of this study was to develop and validate a comprehensive conceptual model that could account for injuries ranging from nonurgent to catastrophic events including events that do not follow traditional medical or prehospital care protocols. The conceptual model should represent the continuum of care from the time of initial injury spanning to an athlete’s return to participation in their sport. Finally, the conceptual model should accommodate both novices and experts in the AT profession. This paper chronicles the content validation steps of the Continuum of Care Conceptual Model for Athletic Therapy (CCCM-AT. The stages of model development were domain and item generation, content expert validation using a three-stage modified Ebel procedure, and pilot testing. Only the final stage of the modified Ebel procedure reached a priori 80% consensus on three domains of interest: (1 heading descriptors; (2 the order of the model; (3 the conceptual model as a whole. Future research is required to test the use of the CCCM-AT in order to understand its efficacy in teaching and practice within the AT discipline.
-
Cross validation for the classical model of structured expert judgment
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Colson, Abigail R.; Cooke, Roger M.
2017-01-01
We update the 2008 TU Delft structured expert judgment database with data from 33 professionally contracted Classical Model studies conducted between 2006 and March 2015 to evaluate its performance relative to other expert aggregation models. We briefly review alternative mathematical aggregation schemes, including harmonic weighting, before focusing on linear pooling of expert judgments with equal weights and performance-based weights. Performance weighting outperforms equal weighting in all but 1 of the 33 studies in-sample. True out-of-sample validation is rarely possible for Classical Model studies, and cross validation techniques that split calibration questions into a training and test set are used instead. Performance weighting incurs an “out-of-sample penalty” and its statistical accuracy out-of-sample is lower than that of equal weighting. However, as a function of training set size, the statistical accuracy of performance-based combinations reaches 75% of the equal weight value when the training set includes 80% of calibration variables. At this point the training set is sufficiently powerful to resolve differences in individual expert performance. The information of performance-based combinations is double that of equal weighting when the training set is at least 50% of the set of calibration variables. Previous out-of-sample validation work used a Total Out-of-Sample Validity Index based on all splits of the calibration questions into training and test subsets, which is expensive to compute and includes small training sets of dubious value. As an alternative, we propose an Out-of-Sample Validity Index based on averaging the product of statistical accuracy and information over all training sets sized at 80% of the calibration set. Performance weighting outperforms equal weighting on this Out-of-Sample Validity Index in 26 of the 33 post-2006 studies; the probability of 26 or more successes on 33 trials if there were no difference between performance
-
Smooth particle hydrodynamic modeling and validation for impact bird substitution
Babu, Arun; Prasad, Ganesh
2018-04-01
Bird strike events incidentally occur and can at times be fatal for air frame structures. Federal Aviation Regulations (FAR) and such other ones mandates aircrafts to be modeled to withstand various levels of bird hit damages. The subject matter of this paper is numerical modeling of a soft body geometry for realistically substituting an actual bird for carrying out simulations of bird hit on target structures. Evolution of such a numerical code to effect an actual bird behavior through impact is much desired for making use of the state of the art computational facilities in simulating bird strike events. Validity, of simulations depicting bird hits, is largely dependent on the correctness of the bird model. In an impact, a set of complex and coupled dynamic interaction exists between the target and the impactor. To simplify this problem, impactor response needs to be decoupled from that of the target. This can be done by assuming and modeling the target as noncompliant. Bird is assumed as fluidic in a impact. Generated stresses in the bird body are significant than its yield stresses. Hydrodynamic theory is most ideal for describing this problem. Impactor literally flows steadily over the target for most part of this problem. The impact starts with an initial shock and falls into a radial release shock regime. Subsequently a steady flow is established in the bird body and this phase continues till the whole length of the bird body is turned around. Initial shock pressure and steady state pressure are ideal variables for comparing and validating the bird model. Spatial discretization of the bird is done using Smooth Particle Hydrodynamic (SPH) approach. This Discrete Element Model (DEM) offers significant advantages over other contemporary approaches. Thermodynamic state variable relations are established using Polynomial Equation of State (EOS). ANSYS AUTODYN is used to perform the explicit dynamic simulation of the impact event. Validation of the shock and steady
-
Verifying and Validating Simulation Models
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Hemez, Francois M. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
2015-02-23
This presentation is a high-level discussion of the Verification and Validation (V&V) of computational models. Definitions of V&V are given to emphasize that “validation” is never performed in a vacuum; it accounts, instead, for the current state-of-knowledge in the discipline considered. In particular comparisons between physical measurements and numerical predictions should account for their respective sources of uncertainty. The differences between error (bias), aleatoric uncertainty (randomness) and epistemic uncertainty (ignorance, lack-of- knowledge) are briefly discussed. Four types of uncertainty in physics and engineering are discussed: 1) experimental variability, 2) variability and randomness, 3) numerical uncertainty and 4) model-form uncertainty. Statistical sampling methods are available to propagate, and analyze, variability and randomness. Numerical uncertainty originates from the truncation error introduced by the discretization of partial differential equations in time and space. Model-form uncertainty is introduced by assumptions often formulated to render a complex problem more tractable and amenable to modeling and simulation. The discussion concludes with high-level guidance to assess the “credibility” of numerical simulations, which stems from the level of rigor with which these various sources of uncertainty are assessed and quantified.
-
Validation studies on indexed sequential modeling for the Colorado River Basin
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Labadie, J.W.; Fontane, D.G.; Salas, J.D.; Ouarda, T.
1991-01-01
This paper reports on a method called indexed sequential modeling (ISM) that has been developed by the Western Area Power Administration to estimate reliable levels of project dependable power capacity (PDC) and applied to several federal hydro systems in the Western U.S. The validity of ISM in relation to more commonly accepted stochastic modeling approaches is analyzed by applying it to the Colorado River Basin using the Colorado River Simulation System (CRSS) developed by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation. Performance of ISM is compared with results from input of stochastically generated data using the LAST Applied Stochastic Techniques Package. Results indicate that output generated from ISM synthetically generated sequences display an acceptable correspondence with results obtained from final convergent stochastically generated hydrology for the Colorado River Basin
-
Animal models of binge drinking, current challenges to improve face validity.
Jeanblanc, Jérôme; Rolland, Benjamin; Gierski, Fabien; Martinetti, Margaret P; Naassila, Mickael
2018-05-05
Binge drinking (BD), i.e., consuming a large amount of alcohol in a short period of time, is an increasing public health issue. Though no clear definition has been adopted worldwide the speed of drinking seems to be a keystone of this behavior. Developing relevant animal models of BD is a priority for gaining a better characterization of the neurobiological and psychobiological mechanisms underlying this dangerous and harmful behavior. Until recently, preclinical research on BD has been conducted mostly using forced administration of alcohol, but more recent studies used scheduled access to alcohol, to model more voluntary excessive intakes, and to achieve signs of intoxications that mimic the human behavior. The main challenges for future research are discussed regarding the need of good face validity, construct validity and predictive validity of animal models of BD. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
-
Readmissions and death after ICU discharge: development and validation of two predictive models.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Omar Badawi
Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: Early discharge from the ICU is desirable because it shortens time in the ICU and reduces care costs, but can also increase the likelihood of ICU readmission and post-discharge unanticipated death if patients are discharged before they are stable. We postulated that, using eICU® Research Institute (eRI data from >400 ICUs, we could develop robust models predictive of post-discharge death and readmission that may be incorporated into future clinical information systems (CIS to assist ICU discharge planning. METHODS: Retrospective, multi-center, exploratory cohort study of ICU survivors within the eRI database between 1/1/2007 and 3/31/2011. EXCLUSION CRITERIA: DNR or care limitations at ICU discharge and discharge to location external to hospital. Patients were randomized (2∶1 to development and validation cohorts. Multivariable logistic regression was performed on a broad range of variables including: patient demographics, ICU admission diagnosis, admission severity of illness, laboratory values and physiologic variables present during the last 24 hours of the ICU stay. Multiple imputation was used to address missing data. The primary outcomes were the area under the receiver operator characteristic curves (auROC in the validation cohorts for the models predicting readmission and death within 48 hours of ICU discharge. RESULTS: 469,976 and 234,987 patients representing 219 hospitals were in the development and validation cohorts. Early ICU readmission and death was experienced by 2.54% and 0.92% of all patients, respectively. The relationship between predictors and outcomes (death vs readmission differed, justifying the need for separate models. The models for early readmission and death produced auROCs of 0.71 and 0.92, respectively. Both models calibrated well across risk groups. CONCLUSIONS: Our models for death and readmission after ICU discharge showed good to excellent discrimination and good calibration. Although
-
A Validation of Subchannel Based CHF Prediction Model for Rod Bundles
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hwang, Dae-Hyun; Kim, Seong-Jin
2015-01-01
A large number of CHF data base were procured from various sources which included square and non-square lattice test bundles. CHF prediction accuracy was evaluated for various models including CHF lookup table method, empirical correlations, and phenomenological DNB models. The parametric effect of the mass velocity and unheated wall has been investigated from the experimental result, and incorporated into the development of local parameter CHF correlation applicable to APWR conditions. According to the CHF design criterion, the CHF should not occur at the hottest rod in the reactor core during normal operation and anticipated operational occurrences with at least a 95% probability at a 95% confidence level. This is accomplished by assuring that the minimum DNBR (Departure from Nucleate Boiling Ratio) in the reactor core is greater than the limit DNBR which accounts for the accuracy of CHF prediction model. The limit DNBR can be determined from the inverse of the lower tolerance limit of M/P that is evaluated from the measured-to-predicted CHF ratios for the relevant CHF data base. It is important to evaluate an adequacy of the CHF prediction model for application to the actual reactor core conditions. Validation of CHF prediction model provides the degree of accuracy inferred from the comparison of solution and data. To achieve a required accuracy for the CHF prediction model, it may be necessary to calibrate the model parameters by employing the validation results. If the accuracy of the model is acceptable, then it is applied to the real complex system with the inferred accuracy of the model. In a conventional approach, the accuracy of CHF prediction model was evaluated from the M/P statistics for relevant CHF data base, which was evaluated by comparing the nominal values of the predicted and measured CHFs. The experimental uncertainty for the CHF data was not considered in this approach to determine the limit DNBR. When a subchannel based CHF prediction model
-
Quantitative Validation of the Integrated Medical Model (IMM) for ISS Missions
Young, Millennia; Arellano, J.; Boley, L.; Garcia, Y.; Saile, L.; Walton, M.; Kerstman, E.; Reyes, D.; Goodenow, D. A.; Myers, J. G.
2016-01-01
Lifetime Surveillance of Astronaut Health (LSAH) provided observed medical event data on 33 ISS and 111 STS person-missions for use in further improving and validating the Integrated Medical Model (IMM). Using only the crew characteristics from these observed missions, the newest development version, IMM v4.0, will simulate these missions to predict medical events and outcomes. Comparing IMM predictions to the actual observed medical event counts will provide external validation and identify areas of possible improvement. In an effort to improve the power of detecting differences in this validation study, the total over each program ISS and STS will serve as the main quantitative comparison objective, specifically the following parameters: total medical events (TME), probability of loss of crew life (LOCL), and probability of evacuation (EVAC). Scatter plots of observed versus median predicted TMEs (with error bars reflecting the simulation intervals) will graphically display comparisons while linear regression will serve as the statistical test of agreement. Two scatter plots will be analyzed 1) where each point reflects a mission and 2) where each point reflects a condition-specific total number of occurrences. The coefficient of determination (R2) resulting from a linear regression with no intercept bias (intercept fixed at zero) will serve as an overall metric of agreement between IMM and the real world system (RWS). In an effort to identify as many possible discrepancies as possible for further inspection, the -level for all statistical tests comparing IMM predictions to observed data will be set to 0.1. This less stringent criterion, along with the multiple testing being conducted, should detect all perceived differences including many false positive signals resulting from random variation. The results of these analyses will reveal areas of the model requiring adjustment to improve overall IMM output, which will thereby provide better decision support for
-
A model to predict element redistribution in unsaturated soil: Its simplification and validation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Sheppard, M.I.; Stephens, M.E.; Davis, P.A.; Wojciechowski, L.
1991-01-01
A research model has been developed to predict the long-term fate of contaminants entering unsaturated soil at the surface through irrigation or atmospheric deposition, and/or at the water table through groundwater. The model, called SCEMR1 (Soil Chemical Exchange and Migration of Radionuclides, Version 1), uses Darcy's law to model water movement, and the soil solid/liquid partition coefficient, K d , to model chemical exchange. SCEMR1 has been validated extensively on controlled field experiments with several soils, aeration statuses and the effects of plants. These validation results show that the model is robust and performs well. Sensitivity analyses identified soil K d , annual effective precipitation, soil type and soil depth to be the four most important model parameters. SCEMR1 consumes too much computer time for incorporation into a probabilistic assessment code. Therefore, we have used SCEMR1 output to derive a simple assessment model. The assessment model reflects the complexity of its parent code, and provides a more realistic description of containment transport in soils than would a compartment model. Comparison of the performance of the SCEMR1 research model, the simple SCEMR1 assessment model and the TERRA compartment model on a four-year soil-core experiment shows that the SCEMR1 assessment model generally provides conservative soil concentrations. (15 refs., 3 figs.)
-
Validering av vattenkraftmodeller i ARISTO
Lundbäck, Maja
2013-01-01
This master thesis was made to validate hydropower models of a turbine governor, Kaplan turbine and a Francis turbine in the power system simulator ARISTO at Svenska Kraftnät. The validation was made in three steps. The first step was to make sure the models was implement correctly in the simulator. The second was to compare the simulation results from the Kaplan turbine model to data from a real hydropower plant. The comparison was made to see how the models could generate simulation result ...
-
Validation of the STAFF-5 computer model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Fletcher, J.F.; Fields, S.R.
1981-04-01
STAFF-5 is a dynamic heat-transfer-fluid-flow stress model designed for computerized prediction of the temperature-stress performance of spent LWR fuel assemblies under storage/disposal conditions. Validation of the temperature calculating abilities of this model was performed by comparing temperature calculations under specified conditions to experimental data from the Engine Maintenance and Dissassembly (EMAD) Fuel Temperature Test Facility and to calculations performed by Battelle Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) using the HYDRA-1 model. The comparisons confirmed the ability of STAFF-5 to calculate representative fuel temperatures over a considerable range of conditions, as a first step in the evaluation and prediction of fuel temperature-stress performance
-
A posteriori model validation for the temporal order of directed functional connectivity maps.
Beltz, Adriene M; Molenaar, Peter C M
2015-01-01
A posteriori model validation for the temporal order of neural directed functional connectivity maps is rare. This is striking because models that require sequential independence among residuals are regularly implemented. The aim of the current study was (a) to apply to directed functional connectivity maps of functional magnetic resonance imaging data an a posteriori model validation procedure (i.e., white noise tests of one-step-ahead prediction errors combined with decision criteria for revising the maps based upon Lagrange Multiplier tests), and (b) to demonstrate how the procedure applies to single-subject simulated, single-subject task-related, and multi-subject resting state data. Directed functional connectivity was determined by the unified structural equation model family of approaches in order to map contemporaneous and first order lagged connections among brain regions at the group- and individual-levels while incorporating external input, then white noise tests were run. Findings revealed that the validation procedure successfully detected unmodeled sequential dependencies among residuals and recovered higher order (greater than one) simulated connections, and that the procedure can accommodate task-related input. Findings also revealed that lags greater than one were present in resting state data: With a group-level network that contained only contemporaneous and first order connections, 44% of subjects required second order, individual-level connections in order to obtain maps with white noise residuals. Results have broad methodological relevance (e.g., temporal validation is necessary after directed functional connectivity analyses because the presence of unmodeled higher order sequential dependencies may bias parameter estimates) and substantive implications (e.g., higher order lags may be common in resting state data).
-
A posteriori model validation for the temporal order of directed functional connectivity maps
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Adriene M. Beltz
2015-08-01
Full Text Available A posteriori model validation for the temporal order of neural directed functional connectivity maps is rare. This is striking because models that require sequential independence among residuals are regularly implemented. The aim of the current study was (a to apply to directed functional connectivity maps of functional magnetic resonance imaging data an a posteriori model validation procedure (i.e., white noise tests of one-step-ahead prediction errors combined with decision criteria for revising the maps based upon Lagrange Multiplier tests, and (b to demonstrate how the procedure applies to single-subject simulated, single-subject task-related, and multi-subject resting state data. Directed functional connectivity was determined by the unified structural equation model family of approaches in order to map contemporaneous and first order lagged connections among brain regions at the group- and individual-levels while incorporating external input, then white noise tests were run. Findings revealed that the validation procedure successfully detected unmodeled sequential dependencies among residuals and recovered higher order (greater than one simulated connections, and that the procedure can accommodate task-related input. Findings also revealed that lags greater than one were present in resting state data: With a group-level network that contained only contemporaneous and first order connections, 44% of subjects required second order, individual-level connections in order to obtain maps with white noise residuals. Results have broad methodological relevance (e.g., temporal validation is necessary after directed functional connectivity analyses because the presence of unmodeled higher order sequential dependencies may bias parameter estimates and substantive implications (e.g., higher order lags may be common in resting state data.
-
The Validation of a Beta-Binomial Model for Overdispersed Binomial Data.
Kim, Jongphil; Lee, Ji-Hyun
2017-01-01
The beta-binomial model has been widely used as an analytically tractable alternative that captures the overdispersion of an intra-correlated, binomial random variable, X . However, the model validation for X has been rarely investigated. As a beta-binomial mass function takes on a few different shapes, the model validation is examined for each of the classified shapes in this paper. Further, the mean square error (MSE) is illustrated for each shape by the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) based on a beta-binomial model approach and the method of moments estimator (MME) in order to gauge when and how much the MLE is biased.
-
Bayesian leave-one-out cross-validation approximations for Gaussian latent variable models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Vehtari, Aki; Mononen, Tommi; Tolvanen, Ville
2016-01-01
The future predictive performance of a Bayesian model can be estimated using Bayesian cross-validation. In this article, we consider Gaussian latent variable models where the integration over the latent values is approximated using the Laplace method or expectation propagation (EP). We study...... the properties of several Bayesian leave-one-out (LOO) cross-validation approximations that in most cases can be computed with a small additional cost after forming the posterior approximation given the full data. Our main objective is to assess the accuracy of the approximative LOO cross-validation estimators...
-
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Melo, Ana Cristina Bezerra Azedo de
2004-12-01
The fluid dynamic behavior of a riser in a cold type FCC model was investigated by means of catalyst concentration distribution measured with gamma attenuation and simulated with a mathematical model. In the riser of the cold model, MEF, 0,032 m in diameter, 2,30 m in length the fluidized bed, whose components are air and FCC catalyst, circulates. The MEF is operated by automatic control and instruments for measuring fluid dynamic variables. An axial catalyst concentration distribution was measured using an Am-241 gamma source and a NaI detector coupled to a multichannel provided with a software for data acquisition and evaluation. The MEF was adapted for a fluid dynamic model validation which describes the flow in the riser, for example, by introducing an injector for controlling the solid flow in circulation. Mathematical models were selected from literature, analyzed and tested to simulate the fluid dynamic of the riser. A methodology for validating fluid dynamic models was studied and implemented. The stages of the work were developed according to the validation methodology, such as data planning experiments, study of the equations which describe the fluidodynamic, computational solvers application and comparison with experimental data. Operational sequences were carried out keeping the MEF conditions for measuring catalyst concentration and simultaneously measuring the fluid dynamic variables, velocity of the components and pressure drop in the riser. Following this, simulated and experimental values were compared and statistical data treatment done, aiming at the required precision to validate the fluid dynamic model. The comparison tests between experimental and simulated data were carried out under validation criteria. The fluid dynamic behavior of the riser was analyzed and the results and the agreement with literature were discussed. The adopt model was validated under the MEF operational conditions, for a 3 to 6 m/s gas velocity in the riser and a slip
-
Process-oriented tests for validation of baroclinic shallow water models: The lock-exchange problem
Kolar, R. L.; Kibbey, T. C. G.; Szpilka, C. M.; Dresback, K. M.; Tromble, E. M.; Toohey, I. P.; Hoggan, J. L.; Atkinson, J. H.
A first step often taken to validate prognostic baroclinic codes is a series of process-oriented tests, as those suggested by Haidvogel and Beckmann [Haidvogel, D., Beckmann, A., 1999. Numerical Ocean Circulation Modeling. Imperial College Press, London], among others. One of these tests is the so-called "lock-exchange" test or "dam break" problem, wherein water of different densities is separated by a vertical barrier, which is removed at time zero. Validation against these tests has primarily consisted of comparing the propagation speed of the wave front, as predicted by various theoretical and experimental results, to model output. In addition, inter-model comparisons of the lock-exchange test have been used to validate codes. Herein, we present a high resolution data set, taken from a laboratory-scale model, for direct and quantitative comparison of experimental and numerical results throughout the domain, not just the wave front. Data is captured every 0.2 s using high resolution digital photography, with salt concentration extracted by comparing pixel intensity of the dyed fluid against calibration standards. Two scenarios are discussed in this paper, symmetric and asymmetric mixing, depending on the proportion of dense/light water (17.5 ppt/0.0 ppt) in the experiment; the Boussinesq approximation applies to both. Front speeds, cast in terms of the dimensionless Froude number, show excellent agreement with literature-reported values. Data are also used to quantify the degree of mixing, as measured by the front thickness, which also provides an error band on the front speed. Finally, experimental results are used to validate baroclinic enhancements to the barotropic shallow water ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) model, including the effect of the vertical mixing scheme on simulation results. Based on salinity data, the model provides an average root-mean-square (rms) error of 3.43 ppt for the symmetric case and 3.74 ppt for the asymmetric case, most of which can
-
An analytic solution for numerical modeling validation in electromagnetics: the resistive sphere
Swidinsky, Andrei; Liu, Lifei
2017-11-01
We derive the electromagnetic response of a resistive sphere to an electric dipole source buried in a conductive whole space. The solution consists of an infinite series of spherical Bessel functions and associated Legendre polynomials, and follows the well-studied problem of a conductive sphere buried in a resistive whole space in the presence of a magnetic dipole. Our result is particularly useful for controlled-source electromagnetic problems using a grounded electric dipole transmitter and can be used to check numerical methods of calculating the response of resistive targets (such as finite difference, finite volume, finite element and integral equation). While we elect to focus on the resistive sphere in our examples, the expressions in this paper are completely general and allow for arbitrary source frequency, sphere radius, transmitter position, receiver position and sphere/host conductivity contrast so that conductive target responses can also be checked. Commonly used mesh validation techniques consist of comparisons against other numerical codes, but such solutions may not always be reliable or readily available. Alternatively, the response of simple 1-D models can be tested against well-known whole space, half-space and layered earth solutions, but such an approach is inadequate for validating models with curved surfaces. We demonstrate that our theoretical results can be used as a complementary validation tool by comparing analytic electric fields to those calculated through a finite-element analysis; the software implementation of this infinite series solution is made available for direct and immediate application.
-
Prediction and Validation of Heat Release Direct Injection Diesel Engine Using Multi-Zone Model
Anang Nugroho, Bagus; Sugiarto, Bambang; Prawoto; Shalahuddin, Lukman
2014-04-01
The objective of this study is to develop simulation model which capable to predict heat release of diesel combustion accurately in efficient computation time. A multi-zone packet model has been applied to solve the combustion phenomena inside diesel cylinder. The model formulations are presented first and then the numerical results are validated on a single cylinder direct injection diesel engine at various engine speed and timing injections. The model were found to be promising to fulfill the objective above.
-
Abbas, Ismail; Rovira, Joan; Casanovas, Josep
2006-12-01
To develop and validate a model of a clinical trial that evaluates the changes in cholesterol level as a surrogate marker for lipodystrophy in HIV subjects under alternative antiretroviral regimes, i.e., treatment with Protease Inhibitors vs. a combination of nevirapine and other antiretroviral drugs. Five simulation models were developed based on different assumptions, on treatment variability and pattern of cholesterol reduction over time. The last recorded cholesterol level, the difference from the baseline, the average difference from the baseline and level evolution, are the considered endpoints. Specific validation criteria based on a 10% minus or plus standardized distance in means and variances were used to compare the real and the simulated data. The validity criterion was met by all models for considered endpoints. However, only two models met the validity criterion when all endpoints were considered. The model based on the assumption that within-subjects variability of cholesterol levels changes over time is the one that minimizes the validity criterion, standardized distance equal to or less than 1% minus or plus. Simulation is a useful technique for calibration, estimation, and evaluation of models, which allows us to relax the often overly restrictive assumptions regarding parameters required by analytical approaches. The validity criterion can also be used to select the preferred model for design optimization, until additional data are obtained allowing an external validation of the model.
-
Validation of a LES turbulence modeling approach on a steady engine head flow
Huijnen, V.; Somers, L.M.T.; Baert, R.S.G.; Goey, de L.P.H.; Dias, V.
2005-01-01
The application of the LES turbulence modeling approach in the Kiva-environment is validated on a complex geometry. Results for the steady flow in a realistic geometry of a production type heavy-duty diesel engine head with 120 mm cylinder bore are presented. The bulk Reynolds number is Reb = 1 fl
-
Siebert, Uwe; Sroczynski, Gaby; Hillemanns, Peter; Engel, Jutta; Stabenow, Roland; Stegmaier, Christa; Voigt, Kerstin; Gibis, Bernhard; Hölzel, Dieter; Goldie, Sue J
2006-04-01
We sought to develop and validate a decision-analytic model for the natural history of cervical cancer for the German health care context and to apply it to cervical cancer screening. We developed a Markov model for the natural history of cervical cancer and cervical cancer screening in the German health care context. The model reflects current German practice standards for screening, diagnostic follow-up and treatment regarding cervical cancer and its precursors. Data for disease progression and cervical cancer survival were obtained from the literature and German cancer registries. Accuracy of Papanicolaou (Pap) testing was based on meta-analyses. We performed internal and external model validation using observed epidemiological data for unscreened women from different German cancer registries. The model predicts life expectancy, incidence of detected cervical cancer cases, lifetime cervical cancer risks and mortality. The model predicted a lifetime cervical cancer risk of 3.0% and a lifetime cervical cancer mortality of 1.0%, with a peak cancer incidence of 84/100,000 at age 51 years. These results were similar to observed data from German cancer registries, German literature data and results from other international models. Based on our model, annual Pap screening could prevent 98.7% of diagnosed cancer cases and 99.6% of deaths due to cervical cancer in women completely adherent to screening and compliant to treatment. Extending the screening interval from 1 year to 2, 3 or 5 years resulted in reduced screening effectiveness. This model provides a tool for evaluating the long-term effectiveness of different cervical cancer screening tests and strategies.
-
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Richter, Cornelia; Thielen, Harald; Sogalla, Martin
2015-09-01
In the medium-term time scale the Gaussian plume model used so far for atmospheric dispersion calculations in the General Administrative Provision (AVV) relating to Section 47 of the Radiation Protection Ordinance (StrISchV) as well as in the Incident Calculation Bases (SBG) relating to Section 49 StrISchV is to be replaced by a Lagrangian particle model. Meanwhile the Atmospheric Radionuclide Transportation Model (ARTM) is available, which allows the simulation of the atmospheric dispersion of operational releases from nuclear installations. ARTM is based on the program package AUSTAL2000 which is designed for the simulation of atmospheric dispersion of non-radioactive operational releases from industrial plants and was adapted to the application of airborne radioactive releases. The research project 3612S50007 serves, on the one hand, to validate ARTM systematically. On the other hand, the development of science and technology were investigated and, if reasonable and possible, were implemented to the program system. The dispersion model and the user interface were advanced and optimized. The program package was provided to the users as a free download. Notably t he work program comprises the validation of the approach used in ARTM to model short emission periods, which are of interest in view of the SBG. The simulation results of the diagnostic wind and turbulence model TALdia, which is part of the GO-ARTM program package, were evaluated with focus on the influence of buildings on the flow field. The user interface was upgraded with a wind field viewer. To simplify the comparison with the model still in use, a Gaussian plum e model was implemented into the graphical user interface. The ARTM web page was maintained, user questions and feedback were answered and analysed concerning possible improvements and further developments of the program package. Numerous improvements were implemented. An ARTM user workshop was hosted by the Federal Office for Radiation
-
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Javier Pino
2009-07-01
Full Text Available Bipolar plates (BPs are one of the most important components in Proton Exchange Membrane Fuel Cells (PEMFC due to the numerous functions they perform. The objective of the research work described in this paper was to develop a simplified and validated method based on Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD, aimed at the analysis and study of the influence of geometrical parameters of BPs on the operation of a cell. A complete sensibility analysis of the influence of dimensions and shape of the BP can be obtained through a simplified CFD model without including the complexity of other components of the PEMFC. This model is compared with the PEM Fuel Cell Module of the FLUENT software, which includes the physical and chemical phenomena relevant in PEMFCs. Results with both models regarding the flow field inside the channels and local current densities are obtained and compared. The results show that it is possible to use the simple model as a standard tool for geometrical analysis of BPs, and results of a sensitivity analysis using the simplified model are presented and discussed.
-
Validation of a marine dispersion model for the calculation of doses to the European population
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Cabianca, T.; Bexon, A.P.
1999-01-01
The validation described in this paper focused on three radionuclides: Cs- 137 , Tc- 99 and Pu-2 39 . Historical discharges of these three radionuclides from the main European nuclear installations, Sellafield Cap de la Hague and Dounreay from the beginning of the operations up to 1995 were included in this study. Input into the North European water system as a result of fallout from nuclear weapons tests and the Chernobyl accident were also incorporated. Radionuclide concentrations predicted by the model in seawater, sediments and seafood up to 1995 were compared with measurements taken by different organisations in the waters of the European Continental Shelf and in the Arctic Ocean. Radionuclide concentrations calculated in various compartments were compared with average measurements taken in the same areas. The validation generally showed good agreement between the model predictions and the observations. Better results were obtained closer to the release point but no systematic over or under prediction by the model was found. A best fit analysis of the transfer rates was also carried out for all three radionuclides and the results of this exercise compared with the values currently used in the model
-
PIV validation of blood-heart valve leaflet interaction modelling.
Kaminsky, R; Dumont, K; Weber, H; Schroll, M; Verdonck, P
2007-07-01
The aim of this study was to validate the 2D computational fluid dynamics (CFD) results of a moving heart valve based on a fluid-structure interaction (FSI) algorithm with experimental measurements. Firstly, a pulsatile laminar flow through a monoleaflet valve model with a stiff leaflet was visualized by means of Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV). The inflow data sets were applied to a CFD simulation including blood-leaflet interaction. The measurement section with a fixed leaflet was enclosed into a standard mock loop in series with a Harvard Apparatus Pulsatile Blood Pump, a compliance chamber and a reservoir. Standard 2D PIV measurements were made at a frequency of 60 bpm. Average velocity magnitude results of 36 phase-locked measurements were evaluated at every 10 degrees of the pump cycle. For the CFD flow simulation, a commercially available package from Fluent Inc. was used in combination with inhouse developed FSI code based on the Arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian (ALE) method. Then the CFD code was applied to the leaflet to quantify the shear stress on it. Generally, the CFD results are in agreement with the PIV evaluated data in major flow regions, thereby validating the FSI simulation of a monoleaflet valve with a flexible leaflet. The applicability of the new CFD code for quantifying the shear stress on a flexible leaflet is thus demonstrated.
-
Mold-filling experiments for validation of modeling encapsulation. Part 1, "wine glass" mold.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Castaneda, Jaime N.; Grillet, Anne Mary; Altobelli, Stephen A. (New Mexico Resonance, Albuquerque, NM); Cote, Raymond O.; Mondy, Lisa Ann
2005-06-01
The C6 project 'Encapsulation Processes' has been designed to obtain experimental measurements for discovery of phenomena critical to improving these processes, as well as data required in the verification and validation plan (Rao et al. 2001) for model validation of flow in progressively complex geometries. We have observed and recorded the flow of clear, Newtonian liquids and opaque, rheologically complex suspensions in two mold geometries. The first geometry is a simple wineglass geometry in a cylinder and is reported here in Part 1. The results in a more realistic encapsulation geometry are reported in Part 2.
-
Validation results of satellite mock-up capturing experiment using nets
Medina, Alberto; Cercós, Lorenzo; Stefanescu, Raluca M.; Benvenuto, Riccardo; Pesce, Vincenzo; Marcon, Marco; Lavagna, Michèle; González, Iván; Rodríguez López, Nuria; Wormnes, Kjetil
2017-05-01
The PATENDER activity (Net parametric characterization and parabolic flight), funded by the European Space Agency (ESA) via its Clean Space initiative, was aiming to validate a simulation tool for designing nets for capturing space debris. This validation has been performed through a set of different experiments under microgravity conditions where a net was launched capturing and wrapping a satellite mock-up. This paper presents the architecture of the thrown-net dynamics simulator together with the set-up of the deployment experiment and its trajectory reconstruction results on a parabolic flight (Novespace A-310, June 2015). The simulator has been implemented within the Blender framework in order to provide a highly configurable tool, able to reproduce different scenarios for Active Debris Removal missions. The experiment has been performed over thirty parabolas offering around 22 s of zero-g conditions. Flexible meshed fabric structure (the net) ejected from a container and propelled by corner masses (the bullets) arranged around its circumference have been launched at different initial velocities and launching angles using a pneumatic-based dedicated mechanism (representing the chaser satellite) against a target mock-up (the target satellite). High-speed motion cameras were recording the experiment allowing 3D reconstruction of the net motion. The net knots have been coloured to allow the images post-process using colour segmentation, stereo matching and iterative closest point (ICP) for knots tracking. The final objective of the activity was the validation of the net deployment and wrapping simulator using images recorded during the parabolic flight. The high-resolution images acquired have been post-processed to determine accurately the initial conditions and generate the reference data (position and velocity of all knots of the net along its deployment and wrapping of the target mock-up) for the simulator validation. The simulator has been properly
-
Validity of observer ratings of the five-factor model of personality traits: a meta-analysis.
Oh, In-Sue; Wang, Gang; Mount, Michael K
2011-07-01
Conclusions reached in previous research about the magnitude and nature of personality-performance linkages have been based almost exclusively on self-report measures of personality. The purpose of this study is to address this void in the literature by conducting a meta-analysis of the relationship between observer ratings of the five-factor model (FFM) personality traits and overall job performance. Our results show that the operational validities of FFM traits based on observer ratings are higher than those based on self-report ratings. In addition, the results show that when based on observer ratings, all FFM traits are significant predictors of overall performance. Further, observer ratings of FFM traits show meaningful incremental validity over self-reports of corresponding FFM traits in predicting overall performance, but the reverse is not true. We conclude that the validity of FFM traits in predicting overall performance is higher than previously believed, and our results underscore the importance of disentangling the validity of personality traits from the method of measurement of the traits.
-
Numerical Simulation of Hydrogen Combustion: Global Reaction Model and Validation
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Zhang, Yun [School of Energy and Power Engineering, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an (China); Department of Mechanical, Aerospace and Nuclear Engineering, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Troy, NY (United States); Liu, Yinhe, E-mail: yinheliu@mail.xjtu.edu.cn [School of Energy and Power Engineering, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an (China)
2017-11-20
Due to the complexity of modeling the combustion process in nuclear power plants, the global mechanisms are preferred for numerical simulation. To quickly perform the highly resolved simulations with limited processing resources of large-scale hydrogen combustion, a method based on thermal theory was developed to obtain kinetic parameters of global reaction mechanism of hydrogen–air combustion in a wide range. The calculated kinetic parameters at lower hydrogen concentration (C{sub hydrogen} < 20%) were validated against the results obtained from experimental measurements in a container and combustion test facility. In addition, the numerical data by the global mechanism (C{sub hydrogen} > 20%) were compared with the results by detailed mechanism. Good agreement between the model prediction and the experimental data was achieved, and the comparison between simulation results by the detailed mechanism and the global reaction mechanism show that the present calculated global mechanism has excellent predictable capabilities for a wide range of hydrogen–air mixtures.
-
Numerical Simulation of Hydrogen Combustion: Global Reaction Model and Validation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zhang, Yun; Liu, Yinhe
2017-01-01
Due to the complexity of modeling the combustion process in nuclear power plants, the global mechanisms are preferred for numerical simulation. To quickly perform the highly resolved simulations with limited processing resources of large-scale hydrogen combustion, a method based on thermal theory was developed to obtain kinetic parameters of global reaction mechanism of hydrogen–air combustion in a wide range. The calculated kinetic parameters at lower hydrogen concentration (C hydrogen < 20%) were validated against the results obtained from experimental measurements in a container and combustion test facility. In addition, the numerical data by the global mechanism (C hydrogen > 20%) were compared with the results by detailed mechanism. Good agreement between the model prediction and the experimental data was achieved, and the comparison between simulation results by the detailed mechanism and the global reaction mechanism show that the present calculated global mechanism has excellent predictable capabilities for a wide range of hydrogen–air mixtures.
-
Pioch, Nicholas J.; Lofdahl, Corey; Sao Pedro, Michael; Krikeles, Basil; Morley, Liam
2007-04-01
To foster shared battlespace awareness in Air Operations Centers supporting the Joint Forces Commander and Joint Force Air Component Commander, BAE Systems is developing a Commander's Model Integration and Simulation Toolkit (CMIST), an Integrated Development Environment (IDE) for model authoring, integration, validation, and debugging. CMIST is built on the versatile Eclipse framework, a widely used open development platform comprised of extensible frameworks that enable development of tools for building, deploying, and managing software. CMIST provides two distinct layers: 1) a Commander's IDE for supporting staff to author models spanning the Political, Military, Economic, Social, Infrastructure, Information (PMESII) taxonomy; integrate multiple native (third-party) models; validate model interfaces and outputs; and debug the integrated models via intuitive controls and time series visualization, and 2) a PMESII IDE for modeling and simulation developers to rapidly incorporate new native simulation tools and models to make them available for use in the Commander's IDE. The PMESII IDE provides shared ontologies and repositories for world state, modeling concepts, and native tool characterization. CMIST includes extensible libraries for 1) reusable data transforms for semantic alignment of native data with the shared ontology, and 2) interaction patterns to synchronize multiple native simulations with disparate modeling paradigms, such as continuous-time system dynamics, agent-based discrete event simulation, and aggregate solution methods such as Monte Carlo sampling over dynamic Bayesian networks. This paper describes the CMIST system architecture, our technical approach to addressing these semantic alignment and synchronization problems, and initial results from integrating Political-Military-Economic models of post-war Iraq spanning multiple modeling paradigms.
-
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Baccino, Francesco; Marinelli, Mattia; Nørgård, Per Bromand
2013-01-01
The paper aims at characterizing the electrochemical and thermal parameters of a 15 kW/320 kWh vanadium redox flow battery (VRB) installed in the SYSLAB test facility of the DTU Risø Campus and experimentally validating the proposed dynamic model realized in Matlab-Simulink. The adopted testing...... efficiency of the battery system. The test procedure has general validity and could also be used for other storage technologies. The storage model proposed and described is suitable for electrical studies and can represent a general model in terms of validity. Finally, the model simulation outputs...
-
Validation experiments of the chimney model for the operational simulation of hydrogen recombiners
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Simon, Berno
2013-01-01
The calculation program REKO-DIREKT allows the simulation of the operational behavior of a hydrogen recombiner during accidents with hydrogen release. The interest is focused on the interaction between the catalyst insertion and the chimney that influences the natural ventilation and thus the throughput through the recombiner significantly. For validation experiments were performed with a small-scale recombiner model in the test facility REKO-4. The results show the correlation between the hydrogen concentration at the recombiner entrance, the temperature on catalyst sheets and the entrance velocity using different chimney heights. The entrance velocity increases with the heights of the installed chimney that influences the natural ventilation significantly. The results allow the generation of a wide data base for validation of the computer code REKO-DIREKT.
-
Validating clustering of molecular dynamics simulations using polymer models
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Phillips Joshua L
2011-11-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Molecular dynamics (MD simulation is a powerful technique for sampling the meta-stable and transitional conformations of proteins and other biomolecules. Computational data clustering has emerged as a useful, automated technique for extracting conformational states from MD simulation data. Despite extensive application, relatively little work has been done to determine if the clustering algorithms are actually extracting useful information. A primary goal of this paper therefore is to provide such an understanding through a detailed analysis of data clustering applied to a series of increasingly complex biopolymer models. Results We develop a novel series of models using basic polymer theory that have intuitive, clearly-defined dynamics and exhibit the essential properties that we are seeking to identify in MD simulations of real biomolecules. We then apply spectral clustering, an algorithm particularly well-suited for clustering polymer structures, to our models and MD simulations of several intrinsically disordered proteins. Clustering results for the polymer models provide clear evidence that the meta-stable and transitional conformations are detected by the algorithm. The results for the polymer models also help guide the analysis of the disordered protein simulations by comparing and contrasting the statistical properties of the extracted clusters. Conclusions We have developed a framework for validating the performance and utility of clustering algorithms for studying molecular biopolymer simulations that utilizes several analytic and dynamic polymer models which exhibit well-behaved dynamics including: meta-stable states, transition states, helical structures, and stochastic dynamics. We show that spectral clustering is robust to anomalies introduced by structural alignment and that different structural classes of intrinsically disordered proteins can be reliably discriminated from the clustering results. To our
-
Model-Based Method for Sensor Validation
Vatan, Farrokh
2012-01-01
Fault detection, diagnosis, and prognosis are essential tasks in the operation of autonomous spacecraft, instruments, and in situ platforms. One of NASA s key mission requirements is robust state estimation. Sensing, using a wide range of sensors and sensor fusion approaches, plays a central role in robust state estimation, and there is a need to diagnose sensor failure as well as component failure. Sensor validation can be considered to be part of the larger effort of improving reliability and safety. The standard methods for solving the sensor validation problem are based on probabilistic analysis of the system, from which the method based on Bayesian networks is most popular. Therefore, these methods can only predict the most probable faulty sensors, which are subject to the initial probabilities defined for the failures. The method developed in this work is based on a model-based approach and provides the faulty sensors (if any), which can be logically inferred from the model of the system and the sensor readings (observations). The method is also more suitable for the systems when it is hard, or even impossible, to find the probability functions of the system. The method starts by a new mathematical description of the problem and develops a very efficient and systematic algorithm for its solution. The method builds on the concepts of analytical redundant relations (ARRs).
-
Implementation and automated validation of the minimal Z' model in FeynRules
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Basso, L.; Christensen, N.D.; Duhr, C.; Fuks, B.; Speckner, C.
2012-01-01
We describe the implementation of a well-known class of U(1) gauge models, the 'minimal' Z' models, in FeynRules. We also describe a new automated validation tool for FeynRules models which is controlled by a web interface and allows the user to run a complete set of 2 → 2 processes on different matrix element generators, different gauges, and compare between them all. If existing, the comparison with independent implementations is also possible. This tool has been used to validate our implementation of the 'minimal' Z' models. (authors)
-
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Xuan Dung Vu
2013-01-01
weak confinement pressure and a plasticity model which allows to reproduce the concrete behavior under strong confinement pressure. The identification of the model was done using the results of experimental tests. The improvement of this model, especially the plasticity part, focuses on three main points: taking into account the effect of the deviatoric stress in the calculation of the mean stress; better accounting for the effect of water using poro-mechanical law instead of mixing law, improvement of the coupling variable between the damage model and the elastoplastic model with consideration of the Lode angle. These improvements were then validated by comparing numerical results and impact tests. The improved model is capable of reproducing the behavior of concrete under different loading paths and at different levels of confinement pressure while taking into account the degree of saturation of concrete. (author) [fr
-
Predicting the success of IVF: external validation of the van Loendersloot's model.
Sarais, Veronica; Reschini, Marco; Busnelli, Andrea; Biancardi, Rossella; Paffoni, Alessio; Somigliana, Edgardo
2016-06-01
Is the predictive model for IVF success proposed by van Loendersloot et al. valid in a different geographical and cultural context? The model discriminates well but was less accurate than in the original context where it was developed. Several independent groups have developed models that combine different variables with the aim of estimating the chance of pregnancy with IVF but only four of them have been externally validated. One of these four, the van Loendersloot's model, deserves particular attention and further investigation for at least three reasons; (i) the reported area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (c-statistics) in the temporal validation setting was the highest reported to date (0.68), (ii) the perspective of the model is clinically wise since it includes variables obtained from previous failed cycles, if any, so it can be applied to any women entering an IVF cycle, (iii) the model lacks external validation in a geographically different center. Retrospective cohort study of women undergoing oocyte retrieval for IVF between January 2013 and December 2013 at the infertility unit of the Fondazione Ca' Granda, Ospedale Maggiore Policlinico of Milan, Italy. Only the first oocyte retrieval cycle performed during the study period was included in the study. Women with previous IVF cycles were excluded if the last one before the study cycle was in another center. The main outcome was the cumulative live birth rate per oocytes retrieval. Seven hundred seventy-two women were selected. Variables included in the van Loendersloot's model and the relative weights (beta) were used. The variable resulting from this combination (Y) was transformed into a probability. The discriminatory capacity was assessed using the c-statistics. Calibration was made using a logistic regression that included Y as the unique variable and live birth as the outcome. Data are presented using both the original and the calibrated models. Performance was evaluated
-
Engineering model cryocooler test results
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Skimko, M.A.; Stacy, W.D.; McCormick, J.A.
1992-01-01
This paper reports that recent testing of diaphragm-defined, Stirling-cycle machines and components has demonstrated cooling performance potential, validated the design code, and confirmed several critical operating characteristics. A breadboard cryocooler was rebuilt and tested from cryogenic to near-ambient cold end temperatures. There was a significant increase in capacity at cryogenic temperatures and the performance results compared will with code predictions at all temperatures. Further testing on a breadboard diaphragm compressor validated the calculated requirement for a minimum axial clearance between diaphragms and mating heads
-
Developing a model for hospital inherent safety assessment: Conceptualization and validation.
Yari, Saeed; Akbari, Hesam; Gholami Fesharaki, Mohammad; Khosravizadeh, Omid; Ghasemi, Mohammad; Barsam, Yalda; Akbari, Hamed
2018-01-01
Paying attention to the safety of hospitals, as the most crucial institute for providing medical and health services wherein a bundle of facilities, equipment, and human resource exist, is of significant importance. The present research aims at developing a model for assessing hospitals' safety based on principles of inherent safety design. Face validity (30 experts), content validity (20 experts), construct validity (268 examples), convergent validity, and divergent validity have been employed to validate the prepared questionnaire; and the items analysis, the Cronbach's alpha test, ICC test (to measure reliability of the test), composite reliability coefficient have been used to measure primary reliability. The relationship between variables and factors has been confirmed at 0.05 significance level by conducting confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) and structural equations modeling (SEM) technique with the use of Smart-PLS. R-square and load factors values, which were higher than 0.67 and 0.300 respectively, indicated the strong fit. Moderation (0.970), simplification (0.959), substitution (0.943), and minimization (0.5008) have had the most weights in determining the inherent safety of hospital respectively. Moderation, simplification, and substitution, among the other dimensions, have more weight on the inherent safety, while minimization has the less weight, which could be due do its definition as to minimize the risk.
-
A proposed strategy for the validation of ground-water flow and solute transport models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Davis, P.A.; Goodrich, M.T.
1991-01-01
Ground-water flow and transport models can be thought of as a combination of conceptual and mathematical models and the data that characterize a given system. The judgment of the validity or invalidity of a model depends both on the adequacy of the data and the model structure (i.e., the conceptual and mathematical model). This report proposes a validation strategy for testing both components independently. The strategy is based on the philosophy that a model cannot be proven valid, only invalid or not invalid. In addition, the authors believe that a model should not be judged in absence of its intended purpose. Hence, a flow and transport model may be invalid for one purpose but not invalid for another. 9 refs
-
Dynamic modeling and experimental validation for direct contact membrane distillation (DCMD) process
Eleiwi, Fadi
2016-02-01
This work proposes a mathematical dynamic model for the direct contact membrane distillation (DCMD) process. The model is based on a 2D Advection–Diffusion Equation (ADE), which describes the heat and mass transfer mechanisms that take place inside the DCMD module. The model studies the behavior of the process in the time varying and the steady state phases, contributing to understanding the process performance, especially when it is driven by intermittent energy supply, such as the solar energy. The model is experimentally validated in the steady state phase, where the permeate flux is measured for different feed inlet temperatures and the maximum absolute error recorded is 2.78 °C. Moreover, experimental validation includes the time variation phase, where the feed inlet temperature ranges from 30 °C to 75 °C with 0.1 °C increment every 2min. The validation marks relative error to be less than 5%, which leads to a strong correlation between the model predictions and the experiments.
-
Dynamic modeling and experimental validation for direct contact membrane distillation (DCMD) process
Eleiwi, Fadi; Ghaffour, NorEddine; Alsaadi, Ahmad Salem; Francis, Lijo; Laleg-Kirati, Taous-Meriem
2016-01-01
This work proposes a mathematical dynamic model for the direct contact membrane distillation (DCMD) process. The model is based on a 2D Advection–Diffusion Equation (ADE), which describes the heat and mass transfer mechanisms that take place inside the DCMD module. The model studies the behavior of the process in the time varying and the steady state phases, contributing to understanding the process performance, especially when it is driven by intermittent energy supply, such as the solar energy. The model is experimentally validated in the steady state phase, where the permeate flux is measured for different feed inlet temperatures and the maximum absolute error recorded is 2.78 °C. Moreover, experimental validation includes the time variation phase, where the feed inlet temperature ranges from 30 °C to 75 °C with 0.1 °C increment every 2min. The validation marks relative error to be less than 5%, which leads to a strong correlation between the model predictions and the experiments.
-
Validation of new 3-D neutronics model in APROS for hexagonal geometry
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Rintala, J.
2010-01-01
APROS - Advanced PROcess Simulation environment-is a widely used simulation tool for nuclear power plant modelling. Earlier the three-dimensional neutronics calculation has been based on model using the difference method. The original three-dimensional core model is mainly used in power plant simulator applications, where it fits well because of its speed. For safety analysis purposes, however, a new model was considered to be an important improvement to meet the accuracy requirements. A sophisticated nodal model used already in HEXTRAN and TRAB-3D was decided to be implemented into APROS. The hexagonal part of the model has now been implemented and tested. For practical reasons, the model was programmed from scratch into APROS and also some small improvements were added and thus, an extensive validation program was necessary to prove the correct behaviour of the model. In this paper, the most important results from AER kinetic benchmarks 2 and 3 calculations are shown as well as the calculation results against data achieved LR-0 test reactor space-time kinetic experiments. Since the model is similar to the one in HEXTRAN, the results in benchmarks are compared to the results by it. In LR-0 calculations, results by both, original and new model are presented and compared to the measurements. The results shows that the implementation of the model has been successful and the new model improves the accuracy of three-dimensional neutronics calculation in APROS into the level required in safety analyses. (Author)
-
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Nina Atanasova
2015-06-01
Full Text Available In this paper, I respond to the challenge raised against contemporary experimental neurobiology according to which the field is in a state of crisis because of the multiple experimental protocols employed in different laboratories and strengthening their reliability that presumably preclude the validity of neurobiological knowledge. I provide an alternative account of experimentation in neurobiology which makes sense of its experimental practices. I argue that maintaining a multiplicity of experimental protocols and strengthening their reliability are well justified and they foster rather than preclude the validity of neurobiological knowledge. Thus, their presence indicates thriving rather than crisis of experimental neurobiology.
-
Ensemble of cell survival experiments after ion irradiation for validation of RBE models
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Friedrich, Thomas; Scholz, Uwe; Scholz, Michael [GSI Helmholtzzentrum fuer Schwerionenforschung, Darmstadt (Germany); Durante, Marco [GSI Helmholtzzentrum fuer Schwerionenforschung, Darmstadt (Germany); Institut fuer Festkoerperphysik, TU Darmstadt, Darmstadt (Germany)
2012-07-01
There is persistent interest in understanding the systematics of the relative biological effectiveness (RBE). Models such as the Local Effect Model (LEM) or the Microdosimetric Kinetic Model have the goal to predict the RBE. For the validation of these models a collection of many in-vitro cell survival experiments is most appropriate. The set-up of an ensemble of in-vitro cell survival data comprising about 850 survival experiments after both ion and photon irradiation is reported. The survival curves have been taken out from publications. The experiments encompass survival curves obtained in different labs, using different ion species from protons to uranium, varying irradiation modalities (shaped or monoenergetic beam), various energies and linear energy transfers, and a whole variety of cell types (human or rodent; normal, mutagenic or tumor; radioresistant or -sensitive). Each cell survival curve has been parameterized by the linear-quadratic model. The photon parameters have been added to the data base to allow to calculate the experimental RBE to any survival level. We report on experimental trends found within the data ensemble. The data will serve as a testing ground for RBE models such as the LEM. Finally, a roadmap for further validation and first model results using the data base in combination with the LEM are presented.
-
Context discovery using attenuated Bloom codes: model description and validation
Liu, F.; Heijenk, Geert
A novel approach to performing context discovery in ad-hoc networks based on the use of attenuated Bloom filters is proposed in this report. In order to investigate the performance of this approach, a model has been developed. This document describes the model and its validation. The model has been
-
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Parlos, A.G.; Chong, K.T.; Atiya, A.F.
1994-01-01
A nonlinear multivariable empirical model is developed for a U-tube steam generator using the recurrent multilayer perceptron network as the underlying model structure. The recurrent multilayer perceptron is a dynamic neural network, very effective in the input-output modeling of complex process systems. A dynamic gradient descent learning algorithm is used to train the recurrent multilayer perceptron, resulting in an order of magnitude improvement in convergence speed over static learning algorithms. In developing the U-tube steam generator empirical model, the effects of actuator, process,and sensor noise on the training and testing sets are investigated. Learning and prediction both appear very effective, despite the presence of training and testing set noise, respectively. The recurrent multilayer perceptron appears to learn the deterministic part of a stochastic training set, and it predicts approximately a moving average response. Extensive model validation studies indicate that the empirical model can substantially generalize (extrapolate), though online learning becomes necessary for tracking transients significantly different than the ones included in the training set and slowly varying U-tube steam generator dynamics. In view of the satisfactory modeling accuracy and the associated short development time, neural networks based empirical models in some cases appear to provide a serious alternative to first principles models. Caution, however, must be exercised because extensive on-line validation of these models is still warranted
-
A practical guide for operational validation of discrete simulation models
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Fabiano Leal
2011-04-01
Full Text Available As the number of simulation experiments increases, the necessity for validation and verification of these models demands special attention on the part of the simulation practitioners. By analyzing the current scientific literature, it is observed that the operational validation description presented in many papers does not agree on the importance designated to this process and about its applied techniques, subjective or objective. With the expectation of orienting professionals, researchers and students in simulation, this article aims to elaborate a practical guide through the compilation of statistical techniques in the operational validation of discrete simulation models. Finally, the guide's applicability was evaluated by using two study objects, which represent two manufacturing cells, one from the automobile industry and the other from a Brazilian tech company. For each application, the guide identified distinct steps, due to the different aspects that characterize the analyzed distributions
-
Scrutinio, Domenico; Lanzillo, Bernardo; Guida, Pietro; Mastropasqua, Filippo; Monitillo, Vincenzo; Pusineri, Monica; Formica, Roberto; Russo, Giovanna; Guarnaschelli, Caterina; Ferretti, Chiara; Calabrese, Gianluigi
2017-12-01
Prediction of outcome after stroke rehabilitation may help clinicians in decision-making and planning rehabilitation care. We developed and validated a predictive tool to estimate the probability of achieving improvement in physical functioning (model 1) and a level of independence requiring no more than supervision (model 2) after stroke rehabilitation. The models were derived from 717 patients admitted for stroke rehabilitation. We used multivariable logistic regression analysis to build each model. Then, each model was prospectively validated in 875 patients. Model 1 included age, time from stroke occurrence to rehabilitation admission, admission motor and cognitive Functional Independence Measure scores, and neglect. Model 2 included age, male gender, time since stroke onset, and admission motor and cognitive Functional Independence Measure score. Both models demonstrated excellent discrimination. In the derivation cohort, the area under the curve was 0.883 (95% confidence intervals, 0.858-0.910) for model 1 and 0.913 (95% confidence intervals, 0.884-0.942) for model 2. The Hosmer-Lemeshow χ 2 was 4.12 ( P =0.249) and 1.20 ( P =0.754), respectively. In the validation cohort, the area under the curve was 0.866 (95% confidence intervals, 0.840-0.892) for model 1 and 0.850 (95% confidence intervals, 0.815-0.885) for model 2. The Hosmer-Lemeshow χ 2 was 8.86 ( P =0.115) and 34.50 ( P =0.001), respectively. Both improvement in physical functioning (hazard ratios, 0.43; 0.25-0.71; P =0.001) and a level of independence requiring no more than supervision (hazard ratios, 0.32; 0.14-0.68; P =0.004) were independently associated with improved 4-year survival. A calculator is freely available for download at https://goo.gl/fEAp81. This study provides researchers and clinicians with an easy-to-use, accurate, and validated predictive tool for potential application in rehabilitation research and stroke management. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.
-
National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
Piskator, Gene
1998-01-01
...) model and to develop a Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) modeling strategy. First, the FAARR model was verified using a simulation of a known production function and validated using sensitivity analysis and ex-post forecasts...
-
Towards a realistic approach to validation of reactive transport models for performance assessment
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Siegel, M.D.
1993-01-01
Performance assessment calculations are based on geochemical models that assume that interactions among radionuclides, rocks and groundwaters under natural conditions, can be estimated or bound by data obtained from laboratory-scale studies. The data include radionuclide distribution coefficients, measured in saturated batch systems of powdered rocks, and retardation factors measured in short-term column experiments. Traditional approaches to model validation cannot be applied in a straightforward manner to the simple reactive transport models that use these data. An approach to model validation in support of performance assessment is described in this paper. It is based on a recognition of different levels of model validity and is compatible with the requirements of current regulations for high-level waste disposal. Activities that are being carried out in support of this approach include (1) laboratory and numerical experiments to test the validity of important assumptions inherent in current performance assessment methodologies,(2) integrated transport experiments, and (3) development of a robust coupled reaction/transport code for sensitivity analyses using massively parallel computers
-
First approximations in avalanche model validations using seismic information
Roig Lafon, Pere; Suriñach, Emma; Bartelt, Perry; Pérez-Guillén, Cristina; Tapia, Mar; Sovilla, Betty
2017-04-01
Avalanche dynamics modelling is an essential tool for snow hazard management. Scenario based numerical modelling provides quantitative arguments for decision-making. The software tool RAMMS (WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF) is one such tool, often used by government authorities and geotechnical offices. As avalanche models improve, the quality of the numerical results will depend increasingly on user experience on the specification of input (e.g. release and entrainment volumes, secondary releases, snow temperature and quality). New model developments must continue to be validated using real phenomena data, for improving performance and reliability. The avalanches group form University of Barcelona (RISKNAT - UB), has studied the seismic signals generated from avalanches since 1994. Presently, the group manages the seismic installation at SLF's Vallée de la Sionne experimental site (VDLS). At VDLS the recorded seismic signals can be correlated to other avalanche measurement techniques, including both advanced remote sensing methods (radars, videogrammetry) and obstacle based sensors (pressure, capacitance, optical sender-reflector barriers). This comparison between different measurement techniques allows the group to address the question if seismic analysis can be used alone, on more additional avalanche tracks, to gain insight and validate numerical avalanche dynamics models in different terrain conditions. In this study, we aim to add the seismic data as an external record of the phenomena, able to validate RAMMS models. The seismic sensors are considerable easy and cheaper to install than other physical measuring tools, and are able to record data from the phenomena in every atmospheric conditions (e.g. bad weather, low light, freezing make photography, and other kind of sensors not usable). With seismic signals, we record the temporal evolution of the inner and denser parts of the avalanche. We are able to recognize the approximate position
-
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ravva, Srinivasa Rao; Iyer, Kannan N.; Gupta, S.K.; Gaikwad, Avinash J.
2014-01-01
Highlights: • A condensation model based on diffusion was implemented in FLUENT. • Validation of a condensation model for the H 2 distribution studies was performed. • Multi-component diffusion is used in the present work. • Appropriate grid and turbulence model were identified. - Abstract: This paper aims at the implementation details of a condensation model in the CFD code FLUENT and its validation so that it can be used in performing the containment hydrogen distribution studies. In such studies, computational fluid dynamics simulations are necessary for obtaining accurate predictions. While steam condensation plays an important role, commercial CFD codes such as FLUENT do not have an in-built condensation model. Therefore, a condensation model was developed and implemented in the FLUENT code through user defined functions (UDFs) for the sink terms in the mass, momentum, energy and species balance equations together with associated turbulence quantities viz., kinetic energy and dissipation rate. The implemented model was validated against the ISP-47 test of TOSQAN facility using the standard wall functions and enhanced wall treatment approaches. The best suitable grid size and the turbulence model for the low density gas (He) distribution studies are brought out in this paper
-
Validating management simulation models and implications for communicating results to stakeholders
Pastoors, M.A.; Poos, J.J.; Kraak, S.B.M.; Machiels, M.A.M.
2007-01-01
Simulations of management plans generally aim to demonstrate the robustness of the plans to assumptions about population dynamics and fleet dynamics. Such modelling is characterized by specification of an operating model (OM) representing the underlying truth and a management procedure that mimics
-
Validating soil phosphorus routines in the SWAT model
Phosphorus transfer from agricultural soils to surface waters is an important environmental issue. Commonly used models like SWAT have not always been updated to reflect improved understanding of soil P transformations and transfer to runoff. Our objective was to validate the ability of the P routin...
-
THE GLOBAL TANDEM-X DEM: PRODUCTION STATUS AND FIRST VALIDATION RESULTS
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
M. Huber
2012-07-01
Full Text Available The TanDEM-X mission will derive a global digital elevation model (DEM with satellite SAR interferometry. Two radar satellites (TerraSAR-X and TanDEM-X will map the Earth in a resolution and accuracy with an absolute height error of 10m and a relative height error of 2m for 90% of the data. In order to fulfill the height requirements in general two global coverages are acquired and processed. Besides the final TanDEM-X DEM, an intermediate DEM with reduced accuracy is produced after the first coverage is completed. The last step in the whole workflow for generating the TanDEM-X DEM is the calibration of remaining systematic height errors and the merge of single acquisitions to 1°x1° DEM tiles. In this paper the current status of generating the intermediate DEM and first validation results based on GPS tracks, laser scanning DEMs, SRTM data and ICESat points are shown for different test sites.
-
Pierie, Frank; van Someren, Christian; Liu, Wen; Bekkering, Jan; Hengeveld, Evert Jan; Holstein, J.; Benders, René M.J.; Laugs, Gideon A.H.; van Gemert, Wim; Moll, Henri C.
2016-01-01
A review has been completed for a verification and validation (V&V) of the (Excel) BioGas simulator or EBS model. The EBS model calculates the environmental impact of biogas production pathways using Material and Energy Flow Analysis, time dependent dynamics, geographic information, and Life Cycle
-
Trendafiloski, G.; Gaspa Rebull, O.; Ewing, C.; Podlaha, A.; Magee, B.
2012-04-01
Calibration and validation are crucial steps in the production of the catastrophe models for the insurance industry in order to assure the model's reliability and to quantify its uncertainty. Calibration is needed in all components of model development including hazard and vulnerability. Validation is required to ensure that the losses calculated by the model match those observed in past events and which could happen in future. Impact Forecasting, the catastrophe modelling development centre of excellence within Aon Benfield, has recently launched its earthquake model for Algeria as a part of the earthquake model for the Maghreb region. The earthquake model went through a detailed calibration process including: (1) the seismic intensity attenuation model by use of macroseismic observations and maps from past earthquakes in Algeria; (2) calculation of the country-specific vulnerability modifiers by use of past damage observations in the country. The use of Benouar, 1994 ground motion prediction relationship was proven as the most appropriate for our model. Calculation of the regional vulnerability modifiers for the country led to 10% to 40% larger vulnerability indexes for different building types compared to average European indexes. The country specific damage models also included aggregate damage models for residential, commercial and industrial properties considering the description of the buildings stock given by World Housing Encyclopaedia and the local rebuilding cost factors equal to 10% for damage grade 1, 20% for damage grade 2, 35% for damage grade 3, 75% for damage grade 4 and 100% for damage grade 5. The damage grades comply with the European Macroseismic Scale (EMS-1998). The model was validated by use of "as-if" historical scenario simulations of three past earthquake events in Algeria M6.8 2003 Boumerdes, M7.3 1980 El-Asnam and M7.3 1856 Djidjelli earthquake. The calculated return periods of the losses for client market portfolio align with the
-
A Supervised Learning Process to Validate Online Disease Reports for Use in Predictive Models.
Patching, Helena M M; Hudson, Laurence M; Cooke, Warrick; Garcia, Andres J; Hay, Simon I; Roberts, Mark; Moyes, Catherine L
2015-12-01
Pathogen distribution models that predict spatial variation in disease occurrence require data from a large number of geographic locations to generate disease risk maps. Traditionally, this process has used data from public health reporting systems; however, using online reports of new infections could speed up the process dramatically. Data from both public health systems and online sources must be validated before they can be used, but no mechanisms exist to validate data from online media reports. We have developed a supervised learning process to validate geolocated disease outbreak data in a timely manner. The process uses three input features, the data source and two metrics derived from the location of each disease occurrence. The location of disease occurrence provides information on the probability of disease occurrence at that location based on environmental and socioeconomic factors and the distance within or outside the current known disease extent. The process also uses validation scores, generated by disease experts who review a subset of the data, to build a training data set. The aim of the supervised learning process is to generate validation scores that can be used as weights going into the pathogen distribution model. After analyzing the three input features and testing the performance of alternative processes, we selected a cascade of ensembles comprising logistic regressors. Parameter values for the training data subset size, number of predictors, and number of layers in the cascade were tested before the process was deployed. The final configuration was tested using data for two contrasting diseases (dengue and cholera), and 66%-79% of data points were assigned a validation score. The remaining data points are scored by the experts, and the results inform the training data set for the next set of predictors, as well as going to the pathogen distribution model. The new supervised learning process has been implemented within our live site and is
-
Validation of NEPTUNE-CFD two-phase flow models using experimental data
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Perez-Manes, Jorge; Sanchez Espinoza, Victor Hugo; Bottcher, Michael; Stieglitz, Robert; Sergio Chiva Vicent
2014-01-01
This paper deals with the validation of the two-phase flow models of the CFD code NEPTUNE-CFD using experimental data provided by the OECD BWR BFBT and PSBT Benchmark. Since the two-phase models of CFD codes are extensively being improved, the validation is a key step for the acceptability of such codes. The validation work is performed in the frame of the European NURISP Project and it was focused on the steady state and transient void fraction tests. The influence of different NEPTUNE-CFD model parameters on the void fraction prediction is investigated and discussed in detail. Due to the coupling of heat conduction solver SYRTHES with NEPTUNE-CFD, the description of the coupled fluid dynamics and heat transfer between the fuel rod and the fluid is improved significantly. The averaged void fraction predicted by NEPTUNE-CFD for selected PSBT and BFBT tests is in good agreement with the experimental data. Finally, areas for future improvements of the NEPTUNE-CFD code were identified, too. (authors)
-
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Miranda Fuentes, Johann [Université de Lyon, CNRS, UMR5008, F-69622 Villeurbanne (France); INSA-Lyon, CETHIL, F-69621 Villeurbanne (France); Kuznik, Frédéric, E-mail: frederic.kuznik@insa-lyon.fr [Université de Lyon, CNRS, UMR5008, F-69622 Villeurbanne (France); INSA-Lyon, CETHIL, F-69621 Villeurbanne (France); Johannes, Kévyn; Virgone, Joseph [Université de Lyon, CNRS, UMR5008, F-69622 Villeurbanne (France); Université Lyon 1, CETHIL, F-69622 Villeurbanne (France)
2014-01-17
This article presents a new model to simulate melting with natural convection of a phase change material. For the phase change problem, the enthalpy formulation is used. Energy equation is solved by a finite difference method, whereas the fluid flow is solved by the multiple relaxation time (MRT) lattice Boltzmann method. The model is first verified and validated using the data from the literature. Then, the model is applied to a tall brick filled with a fatty acid eutectic mixture and the results are presented. The main results are (1) the spatial convergence rate is of second order, (2) the new model is validated against data from the literature and (3) the natural convection plays an important role in the melting process of the fatty acid mixture considered in our work.
-
Flight Testing an Iced Business Jet for Flight Simulation Model Validation
Ratvasky, Thomas P.; Barnhart, Billy P.; Lee, Sam; Cooper, Jon
2007-01-01
A flight test of a business jet aircraft with various ice accretions was performed to obtain data to validate flight simulation models developed through wind tunnel tests. Three types of ice accretions were tested: pre-activation roughness, runback shapes that form downstream of the thermal wing ice protection system, and a wing ice protection system failure shape. The high fidelity flight simulation models of this business jet aircraft were validated using a software tool called "Overdrive." Through comparisons of flight-extracted aerodynamic forces and moments to simulation-predicted forces and moments, the simulation models were successfully validated. Only minor adjustments in the simulation database were required to obtain adequate match, signifying the process used to develop the simulation models was successful. The simulation models were implemented in the NASA Ice Contamination Effects Flight Training Device (ICEFTD) to enable company pilots to evaluate flight characteristics of the simulation models. By and large, the pilots confirmed good similarities in the flight characteristics when compared to the real airplane. However, pilots noted pitch up tendencies at stall with the flaps extended that were not representative of the airplane and identified some differences in pilot forces. The elevator hinge moment model and implementation of the control forces on the ICEFTD were identified as a driver in the pitch ups and control force issues, and will be an area for future work.
-
Kumar, Mayank
2012-01-19
In this two-part paper, we describe the construction, validation, and application of a multiscale model of entrained flow gasification. The accuracy of the model is demonstrated by (1) rigorously constructing and validating the key constituent submodels against relevant canonical test cases from the literature and (2) validating the integrated model against experimental data from laboratory scale and commercial scale gasifiers. In part I, the flow solver and particle turbulent dispersion models are validated against experimental data from nonswirling flow and swirling flow test cases in an axisymmetric sudden expansion geometry and a two-phase flow test case in a cylindrical bluff body geometry. Results show that while the large eddy simulation (LES) performs best among all tested models in predicting both swirling and nonswirling flows, the shear stress transport (SST) k-ω model is the best choice among the commonly used Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) models. The particle turbulent dispersion model is accurate enough in predicting particle trajectories in complex turbulent flows when the underlying turbulent flow is well predicted. Moreover, a commonly used modeling constant in the particle dispersion model is optimized on the basis of comparisons with particle-phase experimental data for the two-phase flow bluff body case. © 2011 American Chemical Society.
-
Pre-engineering Spaceflight Validation of Environmental Models and the 2005 HZETRN Simulation Code
Nealy, John E.; Cucinotta, Francis A.; Wilson, John W.; Badavi, Francis F.; Dachev, Ts. P.; Tomov, B. T.; Walker, Steven A.; DeAngelis, Giovanni; Blattnig, Steve R.; Atwell, William
2006-01-01
The HZETRN code has been identified by NASA for engineering design in the next phase of space exploration highlighting a return to the Moon in preparation for a Mars mission. In response, a new series of algorithms beginning with 2005 HZETRN, will be issued by correcting some prior limitations and improving control of propagated errors along with established code verification processes. Code validation processes will use new/improved low Earth orbit (LEO) environmental models with a recently improved International Space Station (ISS) shield model to validate computational models and procedures using measured data aboard ISS. These validated models will provide a basis for flight-testing the designs of future space vehicles and systems of the Constellation program in the LEO environment.
-
Lead/acid batteries for photovoltaic applications. Test results and modelling
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Copetti, J B [CIEMAT, Inst. de Energias Renovables, Madrid (Spain); Chenlo, F [CIEMAT, Inst. de Energias Renovables, Madrid (Spain)
1994-01-01
This work presents the results of experiments carried out on lead/acid batteries during charge and discharge processes at different currents and temperatures, selected to a cover a large range of operating conditions, including those encountered in photovoltaic (PV) system applications. The results allow us to verify the relations among the battery external parameters (voltage, current, state-of-charge and temperature), the behaviour of the internal resistance, and to deduce a model that represents the discharge and charge processes, including the overcharge. Finally, normalized equations with respect to the battery capacity are proposed, which allow us to fix the values of parameters and hence the model is valid for any type and size of lead/acid battery. (orig.)
-
Transverse Crack Modeling and Validation in Rotor Systems Including Thermal Effects
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
N. Bachschmid
2004-01-01
Full Text Available In this article, a model is described that allows one to simulate the static behavior of a transversal crack in a horizontal rotor, under the action of the weight and other possible static loads and the dynamical behavior of the rotating cracked shaft. The crack “breaths,” i.e., the mechanism of opening and closing of the crack, is ruled by the stress acting on the cracked section due to the external loads; in a rotor the stress is time-depending with a period equal to the period of rotation, thus the crack “periodically breaths.” An original simplified model is described that allows cracks of different shape to be modeled and thermal stresses to be taken into account, since they may influence the opening and closing mechanism. The proposed method has been validated using two criteria. Firstly, the crack “breathing” mechanism, simulated with the model, has been compared with the results obtained by a nonlinear 3-D FEM calculation and a good agreement in the results has been observed. Secondly, the proposed model allows the development of the equivalent cracked beam. The results of this model are compared with those obtained by the above-mentioned 3-D FEM. There is a good agreement in the results, of this case as well.
-
Statistical approach for selection of regression model during validation of bioanalytical method
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Natalija Nakov
2014-06-01
Full Text Available The selection of an adequate regression model is the basis for obtaining accurate and reproducible results during the bionalytical method validation. Given the wide concentration range, frequently present in bioanalytical assays, heteroscedasticity of the data may be expected. Several weighted linear and quadratic regression models were evaluated during the selection of the adequate curve fit using nonparametric statistical tests: One sample rank test and Wilcoxon signed rank test for two independent groups of samples. The results obtained with One sample rank test could not give statistical justification for the selection of linear vs. quadratic regression models because slight differences between the error (presented through the relative residuals were obtained. Estimation of the significance of the differences in the RR was achieved using Wilcoxon signed rank test, where linear and quadratic regression models were treated as two independent groups. The application of this simple non-parametric statistical test provides statistical confirmation of the choice of an adequate regression model.
-
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ben Mustafa, Adli
2008-01-01
Full Text Available Validity Examination of EFQM’s Results by DEA Models = Examen de la validez de los resultados de EFQM mediante modelos DEAAbstract: The European Foundation Quality Management is one of the models which deal with the assessment of function of an organization using a self-assessment for measuring the concepts some of which are more and more qualitative. Consequently, complete understanding and correct usage of this model in an organization depend on the comprehensive recognition of that model and different strategies of self-assessment. The process of self-assessment on the basis of this model in an organization needs to use the experienced auditors. This leads to reduce the wrong privilege making to the criteria and to subcriteria probable way. In this paper, first some of the weaknesses of the EFQM model are studied, then with the usage of structure of input-output governing of the model and using of Data Envelopment Analysis, a method is offered to recognize the lack of the proportion between Enablers and the results of organization which may occur due to problems and obstacles hidden in the heart of organization. = La Fundación Europea de Gestión de la Calidad (EFQM significa uno de los modelos para la evaluación de las funciones de las organizaciones, utilizando la autoevaluación para medir aspectos que, algunos de los cuales, son cada vez más cualitativos. Consecuentemente, la comprensión completa y el uso correcto de este modelo en una organización dependen del conocimiento profundo del modelo y de las diferentes estrategias de autoevaluación. El proceso de autoevaluación en la base de este modelo, en cualquier organización, necesita la intervención de auditores experimentados. Esto es precisamente lo que lleva a reducir el uso incorrecto de los criterios y de los subcriterios. En este artículo, primero se estudian algunas de las debilidades del modelo EFQM y después, mediante la utilización de estructura de control de
-
The Mistra experiment for field containment code validation first results
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Caron-Charles, M.; Blumenfeld, L.
2001-01-01
The MISTRA facility is a large scale experiment, designed for the purpose of thermal-hydraulics multi-D codes validation. A short description of the facility, the set up of the instrumentation and the test program are presented. Then, the first experimental results, studying helium injection in the containment and their calculations are detailed. (author)
-
Hofman, Jelle; Samson, Roeland
2014-09-01
Biomagnetic monitoring of tree leaf deposited particles has proven to be a good indicator of the ambient particulate concentration. The objective of this study is to apply this method to validate a local-scale air quality model (ENVI-met), using 96 tree crown sampling locations in a typical urban street canyon. To the best of our knowledge, the application of biomagnetic monitoring for the validation of pollutant dispersion modeling is hereby presented for the first time. Quantitative ENVI-met validation showed significant correlations between modeled and measured results throughout the entire in-leaf period. ENVI-met performed much better at the first half of the street canyon close to the ring road (r=0.58-0.79, RMSE=44-49%), compared to second part (r=0.58-0.64, RMSE=74-102%). The spatial model behavior was evaluated by testing effects of height, azimuthal position, tree position and distance from the main pollution source on the obtained model results and magnetic measurements. Our results demonstrate that biomagnetic monitoring seems to be a valuable method to evaluate the performance of air quality models. Due to the high spatial and temporal resolution of this technique, biomagnetic monitoring can be applied anywhere in the city (where urban green is present) to evaluate model performance at different spatial scales. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
-
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
José Mauro da Costa Hernandez
2010-04-01
Full Text Available This study proposes and validates a trust measurement model for buyer-seller relationships. Baptized as development-based trust, the model encompasses three dimensions of trust: calculus-based, knowledge-based and identification-based. In addition to recognizing that trust is a multidimensional construct, the model also assumes that trust can evolve to take on a different character depending on the stage of the relationship. In order to test the proposed model and compare it to the characteristic-based trust measurement model, the measure most frequently used in the buyer-seller relationship literature, data were collected from 238 clients of an IT product wholesaler. The results show that the scales are valid and reliable and the proposed development-based trust measurement model is superior to the characteristic-based trust measurement model in terms of its ability to explain certain variables of interest in buyer-seller relationships (long-term relationship orientation, information sharing, behavioral loyalty and future intentions. Implications for practice, limitations and suggestions for future studies are discussed.
-
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Luis Cláudio Lemos Correia
Full Text Available Abstract Background: Currently, there is no validated multivariate model to predict probability of obstructive coronary disease in patients with acute chest pain. Objective: To develop and validate a multivariate model to predict coronary artery disease (CAD based on variables assessed at admission to the coronary care unit (CCU due to acute chest pain. Methods: A total of 470 patients were studied, 370 utilized as the derivation sample and the subsequent 100 patients as the validation sample. As the reference standard, angiography was required to rule in CAD (stenosis ≥ 70%, while either angiography or a negative noninvasive test could be used to rule it out. As predictors, 13 baseline variables related to medical history, 14 characteristics of chest discomfort, and eight variables from physical examination or laboratory tests were tested. Results: The prevalence of CAD was 48%. By logistic regression, six variables remained independent predictors of CAD: age, male gender, relief with nitrate, signs of heart failure, positive electrocardiogram, and troponin. The area under the curve (AUC of this final model was 0.80 (95% confidence interval [95%CI] = 0.75 - 0.84 in the derivation sample and 0.86 (95%CI = 0.79 - 0.93 in the validation sample. Hosmer-Lemeshow's test indicated good calibration in both samples (p = 0.98 and p = 0.23, respectively. Compared with a basic model containing electrocardiogram and troponin, the full model provided an AUC increment of 0.07 in both derivation (p = 0.0002 and validation (p = 0.039 samples. Integrated discrimination improvement was 0.09 in both derivation (p < 0.001 and validation (p < 0.0015 samples. Conclusion: A multivariate model was derived and validated as an accurate tool for estimating the pretest probability of CAD in patients with acute chest pain.
-
Modeling of surge in free-spool centrifugal compressors : experimental validation
Gravdahl, J.T.; Willems, F.P.T.; Jager, de A.G.; Egeland, O.
2004-01-01
The derivation of a compressor characteristic, and the experimental validation of a dynamic model for a variable speed centrifugal compressor using this characteristic, are presented. The dynamic compressor model of Fink et al. is used, and a variable speed compressor characteristic is derived by
-
Sample size calculation to externally validate scoring systems based on logistic regression models.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Antonio Palazón-Bru
Full Text Available A sample size containing at least 100 events and 100 non-events has been suggested to validate a predictive model, regardless of the model being validated and that certain factors can influence calibration of the predictive model (discrimination, parameterization and incidence. Scoring systems based on binary logistic regression models are a specific type of predictive model.The aim of this study was to develop an algorithm to determine the sample size for validating a scoring system based on a binary logistic regression model and to apply it to a case study.The algorithm was based on bootstrap samples in which the area under the ROC curve, the observed event probabilities through smooth curves, and a measure to determine the lack of calibration (estimated calibration index were calculated. To illustrate its use for interested researchers, the algorithm was applied to a scoring system, based on a binary logistic regression model, to determine mortality in intensive care units.In the case study provided, the algorithm obtained a sample size with 69 events, which is lower than the value suggested in the literature.An algorithm is provided for finding the appropriate sample size to validate scoring systems based on binary logistic regression models. This could be applied to determine the sample size in other similar cases.
-
A magnetospheric specification model validation study: Geosynchronous electrons
Hilmer, R. V.; Ginet, G. P.
2000-09-01
The Rice University Magnetospheric Specification Model (MSM) is an operational space environment model of the inner and middle magnetosphere designed to specify charged particle fluxes up to 100keV. Validation test data taken between January 1996 and June 1998 consist of electron fluxes measured by a charge control system (CCS) on a defense satellite communications system (DSCS) spacecraft. The CCS includes both electrostatic analyzers to measure the particle environment and surface potential monitors to track differential charging between various materials and vehicle ground. While typical RMS error analysis methods provide a sense of the models overall abilities, they do not specifically address physical situations critical to operations, i.e., how well does the model specify when a high differential charging state is probable. In this validation study, differential charging states observed by DSCS are used to determine several threshold fluxes for the associated 20-50keV electrons and joint probability distributions are constructed to determine Hit, Miss, and False Alarm rates for the models. An MSM run covering the two and one-half year interval is performed using the minimum required input parameter set, consisting of only the magnetic activity index Kp, in order to statistically examine the model's seasonal and yearly performance. In addition, the relative merits of the input parameter, i.e., Kp, Dst, the equatorward boundary of diffuse aurora at midnight, cross-polar cap potential, solar wind density and velocity, and interplanetary magnetic field values, are evaluated as drivers of shorter model runs of 100 d each. In an effort to develop operational tools that can address spacecraft charging issues, we also identify temporal features in the model output that can be directly linked to input parameter variations and model boundary conditions. All model output is interpreted using the full three-dimensional, dipole tilt-dependent algorithms currently in
-
Two-phase 1D+1D model of a DMFC: development and validation on extensive operating conditions range
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Casalegno, A.; Marchesi, R.; Parenti, D. [Dipartimento di Energetica, Politecnico di Milano (Italy)
2008-02-15
A two-phase 1D+1D model of a direct methanol fuel cell (DMFC) is developed, considering overall mass balance, methanol transport in gas phase through anode diffusion layer, methanol and water crossover. The model is quantitatively validated on an extensive range of operating conditions, 24 polarisation curves. The model accurately reproduces DMFC performance in the validation range and, outside this, it is able to predict values under feasible operating conditions. Finally, the estimations of methanol crossover flux are qualitatively and quantitatively similar to experimental measures and the main local quantities' trends are coherent with results obtained with more complex models. (Abstract Copyright [2008], Wiley Periodicals, Inc.)
-
Earth as an extrasolar planet: Earth model validation using EPOXI earth observations.
Robinson, Tyler D; Meadows, Victoria S; Crisp, David; Deming, Drake; A'hearn, Michael F; Charbonneau, David; Livengood, Timothy A; Seager, Sara; Barry, Richard K; Hearty, Thomas; Hewagama, Tilak; Lisse, Carey M; McFadden, Lucy A; Wellnitz, Dennis D
2011-06-01
The EPOXI Discovery Mission of Opportunity reused the Deep Impact flyby spacecraft to obtain spatially and temporally resolved visible photometric and moderate resolution near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopic observations of Earth. These remote observations provide a rigorous validation of whole-disk Earth model simulations used to better understand remotely detectable extrasolar planet characteristics. We have used these data to upgrade, correct, and validate the NASA Astrobiology Institute's Virtual Planetary Laboratory three-dimensional line-by-line, multiple-scattering spectral Earth model. This comprehensive model now includes specular reflectance from the ocean and explicitly includes atmospheric effects such as Rayleigh scattering, gas absorption, and temperature structure. We have used this model to generate spatially and temporally resolved synthetic spectra and images of Earth for the dates of EPOXI observation. Model parameters were varied to yield an optimum fit to the data. We found that a minimum spatial resolution of ∼100 pixels on the visible disk, and four categories of water clouds, which were defined by using observed cloud positions and optical thicknesses, were needed to yield acceptable fits. The validated model provides a simultaneous fit to Earth's lightcurve, absolute brightness, and spectral data, with a root-mean-square (RMS) error of typically less than 3% for the multiwavelength lightcurves and residuals of ∼10% for the absolute brightness throughout the visible and NIR spectral range. We have extended our validation into the mid-infrared by comparing the model to high spectral resolution observations of Earth from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder, obtaining a fit with residuals of ∼7% and brightness temperature errors of less than 1 K in the atmospheric window. For the purpose of understanding the observable characteristics of the distant Earth at arbitrary viewing geometry and observing cadence, our validated forward model can be
-
Validation of a Hot Water Distribution Model Using Laboratory and Field Data
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Backman, C.; Hoeschele, M.
2013-07-01
Characterizing the performance of hot water distribution systems is a critical step in developing best practice guidelines for the design and installation of high performance hot water systems. Developing and validating simulation models is critical to this effort, as well as collecting accurate input data to drive the models. In this project, the ARBI team validated the newly developed TRNSYS Type 604 pipe model against both detailed laboratory and field distribution system performance data. Validation efforts indicate that the model performs very well in handling different pipe materials, insulation cases, and varying hot water load conditions. Limitations of the model include the complexity of setting up the input file and long simulation run times. In addition to completing validation activities, this project looked at recent field hot water studies to better understand use patterns and potential behavioral changes as homeowners convert from conventional storage water heaters to gas tankless units. Based on these datasets, we conclude that the current Energy Factor test procedure overestimates typical use and underestimates the number of hot water draws. This has implications for both equipment and distribution system performance. Gas tankless water heaters were found to impact how people use hot water, but the data does not necessarily suggest an increase in usage. Further study in hot water usage and patterns is needed to better define these characteristics in different climates and home vintages.
-
Rest, J.
1989-12-01
A number of different phenomenological models for gas precipitation in solids during postirradiation annealing experiments have been proposed. Validation of such mechanistic models for gas release and swelling is complicated by the use of data containing large systematic errors, and phenomena characterized by synergistic effects as well as uncertainties in materials properties. Statistical regression analysis is recommended for the selection of a reasonably well characterized data base for gas release from irradiated fuel under transient heating conditions. It is demonstrated that an appropriate data selection method is required in order to realistically examine the impact of differing descriptions of the phenomena, and uncertainties in selected materials properties, on the validation results. The results of the analysis show that the kinetics of gas precipitation in solids depend on bubble overpressurization effects and need to be accounted for during the heatup phase of isothermal heating experiments. It is shown that if only the total gas release values (as opposed to time-dependent data) were available, differentiation between different gas precipitation models would be ambiguous. The observed sustained increase in the fractional release curve at relatively high temperatures after the total precipitation of intragranular gas in fission gas bubbles is ascribed to the effects of a grain-growth/grain-boundary sweeping mechanism.
-
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Rest, J.
1989-01-01
A number of different phenomenological models for gas precipitation in solids during postirradiation annealing experiments have been proposed. Validation of such mechanistic models for gas release and swelling is complicated by the use of data containing large systematic errors, and phenomena characterized by synergistic effects as well as uncertainties in materials properties. Statistical regression analysis is recommended for the selection of a reasonably well characterized data base for gas release from irradiated fuel under transient heating conditions. It is demonstrated that an appropriate data selection method is required in order to realistically examine the impact of differing descriptions of the phenomena, and uncertainties in selected materials properties, on the validation results. The results of the analysis show that the kinetics of gas precipitation in solid depend on bubble overpressurization effects and need to be accounted for during the heatup phase of isothermal heating experiments. It is shown that if only the total gas release values (as opposed to time-dependent data) were available, differentiation between different gas precipitation models would be ambiguous. The observed sustained increase in the fractional release curve at relatively high temperatures after the total precipitation of intragranular gas in fission gas bubbles is ascribed to the effects of a grain-growth/grain-boundary sweeping mechanism. (orig.)
-
The impact of school leadership on school level factors: validation of a causal model
Krüger, M.L.; Witziers, B.; Sleegers, P.
2007-01-01
This study aims to contribute to a better understanding of the antecedents and effects of educational leadership, and of the influence of the principal's leadership on intervening and outcome variables. A path analysis was conducted to test and validate a causal model. The results show no direct or
-
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Kamruzzaman, M.; Lutz, Th.; Würz, W.
2012-01-01
This paper describes an extensive assessment and a step by step validation of different turbulent boundary-layer trailing-edge noise prediction schemes developed within the European Union funded wind energy project UpWind. To validate prediction models, measurements of turbulent boundary-layer pr...... with measurements in the frequency region higher than 1 kHz, whereas they over-predict the sound pressure level in the low-frequency region. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.......-layer properties such as two-point turbulent velocity correlations, the spectra of the associated wall pressure fluctuations and the emitted trailing-edge far-field noise were performed in the laminar wind tunnel of the Institute of Aerodynamics and Gas Dynamics, University of Stuttgart. The measurements were...... carried out for a NACA 643-418 airfoil, at Re = 2.5 ×106, angle of attack of −6° to 6°. Numerical results of different prediction schemes are extensively validated and discussed elaborately. The investigations on the TNO-Blake noise prediction model show that the numerical wall pressure fluctuation...
-
PIV-validated numerical modeling of pulsatile flows in distal coronary end-to-side anastomoses.
Xiong, F L; Chong, C K
2007-01-01
This study employed particle image velocimetry (PIV) to validate a numerical model in a complementary approach to quantify hemodynamic factors in distal coronary anastomoses and to gain more insights on their relationship with anastomotic geometry. Instantaneous flow fields and wall shear stresses (WSS) were obtained from PIV measurement in a modified life-size silastic anastomosis model adapted from a conventional geometry by incorporating a smooth graft-artery transition. The results were compared with those predicted by a concurrent numerical model. The numerical method was then used to calculate cycle-averaged WSS (WSS(cyc)) and spatial wall shear stress gradient (SWSSG), two critical hemodynamic factors in the pathogenesis of intimal thickening (IT), to compare the conventional and modified geometries. Excellent qualitative agreement and satisfactory quantitative agreement with averaged normalized error in WSS between 0.8% and 8.9% were achieved between the PIV experiment and numerical model. Compared to the conventional geometry, the modified geometry produces a more uniform WSS(cyc) distribution eliminating both high and low WSS(cyc) around the toe, critical in avoiding IT. Peak SWSSG on the artery floor of the modified model is less than one-half that in the conventional case, and high SWSSG at the toe is eliminated. The validated numerical model is useful for modeling unsteady coronary anastomotic flows and elucidating the significance of geometry regulated hemodynamics. The results suggest the clinical relevance of constructing smooth graft-artery transition in distal coronary anastomoses to improve their hemodynamic performance.
-
Development and Validity of a Silicone Renal Tumor Model for Robotic Partial Nephrectomy Training.
Monda, Steven M; Weese, Jonathan R; Anderson, Barrett G; Vetter, Joel M; Venkatesh, Ramakrishna; Du, Kefu; Andriole, Gerald L; Figenshau, Robert S
2018-04-01
To provide a training tool to address the technical challenges of robot-assisted laparoscopic partial nephrectomy, we created silicone renal tumor models using 3-dimensional printed molds of a patient's kidney with a mass. In this study, we assessed the face, content, and construct validity of these models. Surgeons of different training levels completed 4 simulations on silicone renal tumor models. Participants were surveyed on the usefulness and realism of the model as a training tool. Performance was measured using operation-specific metrics, self-reported operative demands (NASA Task Load Index [NASA TLX]), and blinded expert assessment (Global Evaluative Assessment of Robotic Surgeons [GEARS]). Twenty-four participants included attending urologists, endourology fellows, urology residents, and medical students. Post-training surveys of expert participants yielded mean results of 79.2 on the realism of the model's overall feel and 90.2 on the model's overall usefulness for training. Renal artery clamp times and GEARS scores were significantly better in surgeons further in training (P ≤.005 and P ≤.025). Renal artery clamp times, preserved renal parenchyma, positive margins, NASA TLX, and GEARS scores were all found to improve across trials (P <.001, P = .025, P = .024, P ≤.020, and P ≤.006, respectively). Face, content, and construct validity were demonstrated in the use of a silicone renal tumor model in a cohort of surgeons of different training levels. Expert participants deemed the model useful and realistic. Surgeons of higher training levels performed better than less experienced surgeons in various study metrics, and improvements within individuals were observed over sequential trials. Future studies should aim to assess model predictive validity, namely, the association between model performance improvements and improvements in live surgery. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
-
Julianto, E. A.; Suntoro, W. A.; Dewi, W. S.; Partoyo
2018-03-01
Climate change has been reported to exacerbate land resources degradation including soil fertility decline. The appropriate validity use on soil fertility evaluation could reduce the risk of climate change effect on plant cultivation. This study aims to assess the validity of a Soil Fertility Evaluation Model using a graphical approach. The models evaluated were the Indonesian Soil Research Center (PPT) version model, the FAO Unesco version model, and the Kyuma version model. Each model was then correlated with rice production (dry grain weight/GKP). The goodness of fit of each model can be tested to evaluate the quality and validity of a model, as well as the regression coefficient (R2). This research used the Eviews 9 programme by a graphical approach. The results obtained three curves, namely actual, fitted, and residual curves. If the actual and fitted curves are widely apart or irregular, this means that the quality of the model is not good, or there are many other factors that are still not included in the model (large residual) and conversely. Indeed, if the actual and fitted curves show exactly the same shape, it means that all factors have already been included in the model. Modification of the standard soil fertility evaluation models can improve the quality and validity of a model.
-
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Flandoli, F. [Dip.to di Matematica Applicata, Universita di Pisa, Pisa (Italy); Giorgi, E. [Dip.to di Matematica Applicata, Universita di Pisa, Pisa (Italy); Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Pisa, via della Faggiola 32, 56126 Pisa (Italy); Aspinall, W.P. [Dept. of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, and Aspinall and Associates, Tisbury (United Kingdom); Neri, A., E-mail: neri@pi.ingv.it [Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Pisa, via della Faggiola 32, 56126 Pisa (Italy)
2011-10-15
The problem of ranking and weighting experts' performances when quantitative judgments are being elicited for decision support is considered. A new scoring model, the Expected Relative Frequency model, is presented, based on the closeness between central values provided by the expert and known values used for calibration. Using responses from experts in five different elicitation datasets, a cross-validation technique is used to compare this new approach with the Cooke Classical Model, the Equal Weights model, and individual experts. The analysis is performed using alternative reward schemes designed to capture proficiency either in quantifying uncertainty, or in estimating true central values. Results show that although there is only a limited probability that one approach is consistently better than another, the Cooke Classical Model is generally the most suitable for assessing uncertainties, whereas the new ERF model should be preferred if the goal is central value estimation accuracy. - Highlights: > A new expert elicitation model, named Expected Relative Frequency (ERF), is presented. > A cross-validation approach to evaluate the performance of different elicitation models is applied. > The new ERF model shows the best performance with respect to the point-wise estimates.
-
Modelling of macrosegregation in steel ingots: benchmark validation and industrial application
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Li Wensheng; Shen Houfa; Liu Baicheng; Shen Bingzhen
2012-01-01
The paper presents the recent progress made by the authors on modelling of macrosegregation in steel ingots. A two-phase macrosegregation model was developed that incorporates descriptions of heat transfer, melt convection, solute transport, and solid movement on the process scale with microscopic relations for grain nucleation and growth. The formation of pipe shrinkage at the ingot top is also taken into account in the model. Firstly, a recently proposed numerical benchmark test of macrosegregation was used to verify the model. Then, the model was applied to predict the macrosegregation in a benchmark industrial-scale steel ingot. The predictions were validated against experimental data from the literature. Furthermore, macrosegregation experiment of an industrial 53-t steel ingot was performed. The simulation results were compared with the measurements. It is indicated that the typical macrosegregation patterns encountered in steel ingots, including a positively segregated zone in the hot top and a negative segregation in the bottom part of the ingot, are well reproduced with the model.
-
Validating agent based models through virtual worlds.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Lakkaraju, Kiran; Whetzel, Jonathan H.; Lee, Jina; Bier, Asmeret Brooke; Cardona-Rivera, Rogelio E.; Bernstein, Jeremy Ray Rhythm
2014-01-01
As the US continues its vigilance against distributed, embedded threats, understanding the political and social structure of these groups becomes paramount for predicting and dis- rupting their attacks. Agent-based models (ABMs) serve as a powerful tool to study these groups. While the popularity of social network tools (e.g., Facebook, Twitter) has provided extensive communication data, there is a lack of ne-grained behavioral data with which to inform and validate existing ABMs. Virtual worlds, in particular massively multiplayer online games (MMOG), where large numbers of people interact within a complex environ- ment for long periods of time provide an alternative source of data. These environments provide a rich social environment where players engage in a variety of activities observed between real-world groups: collaborating and/or competing with other groups, conducting battles for scarce resources, and trading in a market economy. Strategies employed by player groups surprisingly re ect those seen in present-day con icts, where players use diplomacy or espionage as their means for accomplishing their goals. In this project, we propose to address the need for ne-grained behavioral data by acquiring and analyzing game data a commercial MMOG, referred to within this report as Game X. The goals of this research were: (1) devising toolsets for analyzing virtual world data to better inform the rules that govern a social ABM and (2) exploring how virtual worlds could serve as a source of data to validate ABMs established for analogous real-world phenomena. During this research, we studied certain patterns of group behavior to compliment social modeling e orts where a signi cant lack of detailed examples of observed phenomena exists. This report outlines our work examining group behaviors that underly what we have termed the Expression-To-Action (E2A) problem: determining the changes in social contact that lead individuals/groups to engage in a particular behavior
-
Technical Note: Procedure for the calibration and validation of kilo-voltage cone-beam CT models
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Vilches-Freixas, Gloria; Létang, Jean Michel; Rit, Simon, E-mail: simon.rit@creatis.insa-lyon.fr [Université de Lyon, CREATIS, CNRS UMR5220, Inserm U1206, INSA-Lyon, Université Lyon 1, Centre Léon Bérard, Lyon 69373 Cedex 08 (France); Brousmiche, Sébastien [Ion Beam Application, Louvain-la-Neuve 1348 (Belgium); Romero, Edward; Vila Oliva, Marc [Université de Lyon, CREATIS, CNRS UMR5220, Inserm U1206, INSA-Lyon, Université Lyon 1, Centre Léon Bérard, Lyon 69373 Cedex 08, France and Ion Beam Application, Louvain-la-Neuve 1348 (Belgium); Kellner, Daniel; Deutschmann, Heinz; Keuschnigg, Peter; Steininger, Philipp [Institute for Research and Development on Advanced Radiation Technologies, Paracelsus Medical University, Salzburg 5020 (Austria)
2016-09-15
Purpose: The aim of this work is to propose a general and simple procedure for the calibration and validation of kilo-voltage cone-beam CT (kV CBCT) models against experimental data. Methods: The calibration and validation of the CT model is a two-step procedure: the source model then the detector model. The source is described by the direction dependent photon energy spectrum at each voltage while the detector is described by the pixel intensity value as a function of the direction and the energy of incident photons. The measurements for the source consist of a series of dose measurements in air performed at each voltage with varying filter thicknesses and materials in front of the x-ray tube. The measurements for the detector are acquisitions of projection images using the same filters and several tube voltages. The proposed procedure has been applied to calibrate and assess the accuracy of simple models of the source and the detector of three commercial kV CBCT units. If the CBCT system models had been calibrated differently, the current procedure would have been exclusively used to validate the models. Several high-purity attenuation filters of aluminum, copper, and silver combined with a dosimeter which is sensitive to the range of voltages of interest were used. A sensitivity analysis of the model has also been conducted for each parameter of the source and the detector models. Results: Average deviations between experimental and theoretical dose values are below 1.5% after calibration for the three x-ray sources. The predicted energy deposited in the detector agrees with experimental data within 4% for all imaging systems. Conclusions: The authors developed and applied an experimental procedure to calibrate and validate any model of the source and the detector of a CBCT unit. The present protocol has been successfully applied to three x-ray imaging systems. The minimum requirements in terms of material and equipment would make its implementation suitable in
-
Validation of numerical model for cook stove using Reynolds averaged Navier-Stokes based solver
Islam, Md. Moinul; Hasan, Md. Abdullah Al; Rahman, Md. Mominur; Rahaman, Md. Mashiur
2017-12-01
Biomass fired cook stoves, for many years, have been the main cooking appliance for the rural people of developing countries. Several researches have been carried out to the find efficient stoves. In the present study, numerical model of an improved household cook stove is developed to analyze the heat transfer and flow behavior of gas during operation. The numerical model is validated with the experimental results. Computation of the numerical model is executed the using non-premixed combustion model. Reynold's averaged Navier-Stokes (RaNS) equation along with the κ - ɛ model governed the turbulent flow associated within the computed domain. The computational results are in well agreement with the experiment. Developed numerical model can be used to predict the effect of different biomasses on the efficiency of the cook stove.
-
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Johra, Hicham; Heiselberg, Per Kvols
This report aims to present in details the numerical building model and each of its elements. In the second part, the results of different validation tests are presented to certify the reliability of the model and thus the results of numerical analyses using it....
-
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Salva, J. Antonio; Iranzo, Alfredo; Rosa, Felipe; Tapia, Elvira
2016-01-01
This work presents a one dimensional analytical model developed for a 50 cm"2 PEM (polymer electrolyte membrane) fuel cell with five-channel serpentine flow field. The different coupled physical phenomena such as electrochemistry, mass transfer of hydrogen, oxygen and water (two phases) together with heat transfer have been solved simultaneously. The innovation of this work is that the model has been validated with two different variables simultaneously and quantitatively in order to ensure the accuracy of the results. The selected variables are the cell voltage and the water content within the membrane MEA (Membrane Electrode Assembly) and GDL (gas diffusion layers) experimentally measured by means of neutron radiography. The results show a good agreement for a comprehensive set of different operating conditions of cell temperature, pressure, reactants relative humidity and cathode stoichiometry. The analytical model has a relative error less than 3.5% for the value of the cell voltage and the water content within the GDL + MEA for all experiments performed. This result presents a new standard of validation in the state of art of PEM fuel cell modeling where two variables are simultaneously and quantitatively validated with experimental results. The developed analytical model has been used in order to analyze the behavior of the PEM fuel cell under different values of relative humidity. - Highlights: • One dimensional analytical model has been developed for a PEM fuel cell. • The model is validated with two different variables simultaneously. • New standard of validation is proposed.
-
Selection, calibration, and validation of models of tumor growth.
Lima, E A B F; Oden, J T; Hormuth, D A; Yankeelov, T E; Almeida, R C
2016-11-01
This paper presents general approaches for addressing some of the most important issues in predictive computational oncology concerned with developing classes of predictive models of tumor growth. First, the process of developing mathematical models of vascular tumors evolving in the complex, heterogeneous, macroenvironment of living tissue; second, the selection of the most plausible models among these classes, given relevant observational data; third, the statistical calibration and validation of models in these classes, and finally, the prediction of key Quantities of Interest (QOIs) relevant to patient survival and the effect of various therapies. The most challenging aspects of this endeavor is that all of these issues often involve confounding uncertainties: in observational data, in model parameters, in model selection, and in the features targeted in the prediction. Our approach can be referred to as "model agnostic" in that no single model is advocated; rather, a general approach that explores powerful mixture-theory representations of tissue behavior while accounting for a range of relevant biological factors is presented, which leads to many potentially predictive models. Then representative classes are identified which provide a starting point for the implementation of OPAL, the Occam Plausibility Algorithm (OPAL) which enables the modeler to select the most plausible models (for given data) and to determine if the model is a valid tool for predicting tumor growth and morphology ( in vivo ). All of these approaches account for uncertainties in the model, the observational data, the model parameters, and the target QOI. We demonstrate these processes by comparing a list of models for tumor growth, including reaction-diffusion models, phase-fields models, and models with and without mechanical deformation effects, for glioma growth measured in murine experiments. Examples are provided that exhibit quite acceptable predictions of tumor growth in laboratory
-
Validation of a FAST Model of the SWAY Prototype Floating Wind Turbine
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Koh, J. H. [Nanyang Technological Univ. (Singapore); Ng, E. Y. K. [Nanyang Technological Univ. (Singapore); Robertson, Amy [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Jonkman, Jason [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Driscoll, Frederick [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)
2016-06-01
As part of a collaboration of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and SWAY AS, NREL installed scientific wind, wave, and motion measurement equipment on the spar-type 1/6.5th-scale prototype SWAY floating offshore wind system. The equipment enhanced SWAY's data collection and allowed SWAY to verify the concept and NREL to validate a FAST model of the SWAY design in an open-water condition. Nanyang Technological University (NTU), in collaboration with NREL, assisted with the validation. This final report gives an overview of the SWAY prototype and NREL and NTU's efforts to validate a model of the system. The report provides a summary of the different software tools used in the study, the modeling strategies, and the development of a FAST model of the SWAY prototype wind turbine, including justification of the modeling assumptions. Because of uncertainty in system parameters and modeling assumptions due to the complexity of the design, several system properties were tuned to better represent the system and improve the accuracy of the simulations. Calibration was performed using data from a static equilibrium test and free-decay tests.
-
Validation of models for the analysis of the transient behavior of metallic fast reactor fuel
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kramer, J.M.; Hughes, T.H.; Gruber, E.E.
1989-01-01
The Integral Fast Reactor (IFR) concept being developed at Argonne National Laboratory has prompted a renewed interest in U-Pu-Zr metal alloys as a fuel for sodium-cooled fast reactors. Part of the attractiveness of the IFR concept is the improvement in reactor safety margins through inherent features of a metal-fueled LMR core. In order to demonstrate these safety margins it is necessary to have computer codes available to analyze the detailed response of metallic fuel to a wide range of accident initiators. Two of the codes that play a key role in assessing this response are the STARS fission gas behavior code and the FPIN2 fuel pin mechanics code. Verification and validation are two important components in the development of models and computer codes. Verification demonstrates through comparison of calculations with analytical solutions that the methodology and algorithms correctly solve the equations that govern the phenomena being modeled. Validation, on the other hand, demonstrates through comparison with data that the phenomena are being modeled correctly. Both components are necessary in order to have the confidence to extrapolate the calculations to reactor accident conditions. This paper presents the results of recent progress in the validation of models for the analysis of the behavior of metallic fast reactor fuel. 9 refs., 7 figs
-
2016-03-31
AFRL-AFOSR-VA-TR-2016-0309 Predictive simulation of material failure using peridynamics- advanced constitutive modeling, verification , and validation... Self -explanatory. 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NUMBER. Enter all unique alphanumeric report numbers assigned by the performing organization, e.g...for public release. Predictive simulation of material failure using peridynamics-advanced constitutive modeling, verification , and validation John T
-
Impact of Cross-Axis Structural Dynamics on Validation of Linear Models for Space Launch System
Pei, Jing; Derry, Stephen D.; Zhou Zhiqiang; Newsom, Jerry R.
2014-01-01
A feasibility study was performed to examine the advisability of incorporating a set of Programmed Test Inputs (PTIs) during the Space Launch System (SLS) vehicle flight. The intent of these inputs is to provide validation to the preflight models for control system stability margins, aerodynamics, and structural dynamics. During October 2009, Ares I-X program was successful in carrying out a series of PTI maneuvers which provided a significant amount of valuable data for post-flight analysis. The resulting data comparisons showed excellent agreement with the preflight linear models across the frequency spectrum of interest. However unlike Ares I-X, the structural dynamics associated with the SLS boost phase configuration are far more complex and highly coupled in all three axes. This presents a challenge when implementing this similar system identification technique to SLS. Preliminary simulation results show noticeable mismatches between PTI validation and analytical linear models in the frequency range of the structural dynamics. An alternate approach was examined which demonstrates the potential for better overall characterization of the system frequency response as well as robustness of the control design.
-
Natural analogues and radionuclide transport model validation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lever, D.A.
1987-08-01
In this paper, some possible roles for natural analogues are discussed from the point of view of those involved with the development of mathematical models for radionuclide transport and with the use of these models in repository safety assessments. The characteristic features of a safety assessment are outlined in order to address the questions of where natural analogues can be used to improve our understanding of the processes involved and where they can assist in validating the models that are used. Natural analogues have the potential to provide useful information about some critical processes, especially long-term chemical processes and migration rates. There is likely to be considerable uncertainty and ambiguity associated with the interpretation of natural analogues, and thus it is their general features which should be emphasized, and models with appropriate levels of sophistication should be used. Experience gained in modelling the Koongarra uranium deposit in northern Australia is drawn upon. (author)
-
Numerical calibration and experimental validation of a PCM-Air heat exchanger model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Stathopoulos, N.; El Mankibi, M.; Santamouris, Mattheos
2017-01-01
Highlights: • Development of a PCM-Air heat exchanger experimental unit and its numerical model. • Differential Scanning Calorimetry for PCM properties. • Ineptitude of DSC obtained heat capacity curves. • Creation of adequate heat capacity curves depending on heat transfer rates. • Confrontation of numerical and experimental results and validation of the model. - Abstract: Ambitious goals have been set at international, European and French level for energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions decrease of the building sector. Achieving them requires renewable energy integration, a technology that presents however an important drawback: intermittent energy production. In response, thermal energy storage (TES) technology applications have been developed in order to correlate energy production and consumption of the building. Phase Change Materials (PCMs) have been widely used in TES applications as they offer a high storage density and adequate phase change temperature range. It is important to accurately know the thermophysical properties of the PCM, both for experimental (system design) and numerical (correct prediction) purposes. In this paper, the fabrication of a PCM – Air experimental prototype is presented at first, along with the development of a numerical model simulating the downstream temperature evolution of the heat exchanger. Particular focus is given to the calibration method and the validation of the model using experimental characterization results. Differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) is used to define the thermal properties of the PCM. Initial numerical results are underestimated compared to experimental ones. Various factors were investigated, pointing to the ineptitude of the heat capacity parameter, as DSC results depend on heating/cooling rates. Adequate heat capacity curves were empirically determined, depending on heat transfer rates and based on DSC results and experimental observations. The results of the proposed model
-
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Farrell, Kathryn, E-mail: kfarrell@ices.utexas.edu; Oden, J. Tinsley, E-mail: oden@ices.utexas.edu; Faghihi, Danial, E-mail: danial@ices.utexas.edu
2015-08-15
A general adaptive modeling algorithm for selection and validation of coarse-grained models of atomistic systems is presented. A Bayesian framework is developed to address uncertainties in parameters, data, and model selection. Algorithms for computing output sensitivities to parameter variances, model evidence and posterior model plausibilities for given data, and for computing what are referred to as Occam Categories in reference to a rough measure of model simplicity, make up components of the overall approach. Computational results are provided for representative applications.
-
Farrell, Kathryn; Oden, J. Tinsley; Faghihi, Danial
2015-08-01
A general adaptive modeling algorithm for selection and validation of coarse-grained models of atomistic systems is presented. A Bayesian framework is developed to address uncertainties in parameters, data, and model selection. Algorithms for computing output sensitivities to parameter variances, model evidence and posterior model plausibilities for given data, and for computing what are referred to as Occam Categories in reference to a rough measure of model simplicity, make up components of the overall approach. Computational results are provided for representative applications.
-
Snorradóttir, Bergthóra S; Jónsdóttir, Fjóla; Sigurdsson, Sven Th; Másson, Már
2014-08-01
A model is presented for transdermal drug delivery from single-layered silicone matrix systems. The work is based on our previous results that, in particular, extend the well-known Higuchi model. Recently, we have introduced a numerical transient model describing matrix systems where the drug dissolution can be non-instantaneous. Furthermore, our model can describe complex interactions within a multi-layered matrix and the matrix to skin boundary. The power of the modelling approach presented here is further illustrated by allowing the possibility of a donor solution. The model is validated by a comparison with experimental data, as well as validating the parameter values against each other, using various configurations with donor solution, silicone matrix and skin. Our results show that the model is a good approximation to real multi-layered delivery systems. The model offers the ability of comparing drug release for ibuprofen and diclofenac, which cannot be analysed by the Higuchi model because the dissolution in the latter case turns out to be limited. The experiments and numerical model outlined in this study could also be adjusted to more general formulations, which enhances the utility of the numerical model as a design tool for the development of drug-loaded matrices for trans-membrane and transdermal delivery. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. and the American Pharmacists Association.
-
External Validity and Model Validity: A Conceptual Approach for Systematic Review Methodology
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Raheleh Khorsan
2014-01-01
Full Text Available Background. Evidence rankings do not consider equally internal (IV, external (EV, and model validity (MV for clinical studies including complementary and alternative medicine/integrative health care (CAM/IHC research. This paper describe this model and offers an EV assessment tool (EVAT© for weighing studies according to EV and MV in addition to IV. Methods. An abbreviated systematic review methodology was employed to search, assemble, and evaluate the literature that has been published on EV/MV criteria. Standard databases were searched for keywords relating to EV, MV, and bias-scoring from inception to Jan 2013. Tools identified and concepts described were pooled to assemble a robust tool for evaluating these quality criteria. Results. This study assembled a streamlined, objective tool to incorporate for the evaluation of quality of EV/MV research that is more sensitive to CAM/IHC research. Conclusion. Improved reporting on EV can help produce and provide information that will help guide policy makers, public health researchers, and other scientists in their selection, development, and improvement in their research-tested intervention. Overall, clinical studies with high EV have the potential to provide the most useful information about “real-world” consequences of health interventions. It is hoped that this novel tool which considers IV, EV, and MV on equal footing will better guide clinical decision making.
-
Haji Ali Afzali, Hossein; Gray, Jodi; Karnon, Jonathan
2013-04-01
Decision analytic models play an increasingly important role in the economic evaluation of health technologies. Given uncertainties around the assumptions used to develop such models, several guidelines have been published to identify and assess 'best practice' in the model development process, including general modelling approach (e.g., time horizon), model structure, input data and model performance evaluation. This paper focuses on model performance evaluation. In the absence of a sufficient level of detail around model performance evaluation, concerns regarding the accuracy of model outputs, and hence the credibility of such models, are frequently raised. Following presentation of its components, a review of the application and reporting of model performance evaluation is presented. Taking cardiovascular disease as an illustrative example, the review investigates the use of face validity, internal validity, external validity, and cross model validity. As a part of the performance evaluation process, model calibration is also discussed and its use in applied studies investigated. The review found that the application and reporting of model performance evaluation across 81 studies of treatment for cardiovascular disease was variable. Cross-model validation was reported in 55 % of the reviewed studies, though the level of detail provided varied considerably. We found that very few studies documented other types of validity, and only 6 % of the reviewed articles reported a calibration process. Considering the above findings, we propose a comprehensive model performance evaluation framework (checklist), informed by a review of best-practice guidelines. This framework provides a basis for more accurate and consistent documentation of model performance evaluation. This will improve the peer review process and the comparability of modelling studies. Recognising the fundamental role of decision analytic models in informing public funding decisions, the proposed
-
Characterization Report on Fuels for NEAMS Model Validation
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Gofryk, Krzysztof [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)
2016-09-01
Nearly 20% of the world’s electricity today is generated by nuclear energy from uranium dioxide (UO2) fuel. The thermal conductivity of UO2 governs the conversion of heat produced from fission events into electricity and it is an important parameter in reactor design and safety. While nuclear fuel operates at high to very high temperatures, thermal conductivity and other materials properties lack sensitivity to temperature variations and to material variations at reactor temperatures. As a result, both the uncertainties in laboratory measurements at high temperatures and the small differences in properties of different materials inevitably lead to large uncertainties in models and little predictive power. Conversely, properties measured at low to moderate temperatures have more sensitivity, less uncertainty, and have larger differences in properties for different materials. These variations need to be characterized as they will afford the highest predictive capability in modeling and offer best assurances for validation and verification at all temperatures. This is well emphasized in the temperature variation of the thermal conductivity of UO2.
-
Lessons learned from recent geomagnetic disturbance model validation activities
Pulkkinen, A. A.; Welling, D. T.
2017-12-01
Due to concerns pertaining to geomagnetically induced current impact on ground-based infrastructure, there has been significantly elevated interest in applying models for local geomagnetic disturbance or "delta-B" predictions. Correspondingly there has been elevated need for testing the quality of the delta-B predictions generated by the modern empirical and physics-based models. To address this need, community-wide activities were launched under the GEM Challenge framework and one culmination of the activities was the validation and selection of models that were transitioned into operations at NOAA SWPC. The community-wide delta-B action is continued under the CCMC-facilitated International Forum for Space Weather Capabilities Assessment and its "Ground Magnetic Perturbations: dBdt, delta-B, GICs, FACs" working group. The new delta-B working group builds on the past experiences and expands the collaborations to cover the entire international space weather community. In this paper, we discuss the key lessons learned from the past delta-B validation exercises and lay out the path forward for building on those experience under the new delta-B working group.
-
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Touchard, S.
2005-10-15
The irreversible reduction of oil resources, the CO{sub 2} emission control and the application of increasingly strict standards of pollutants emission lead the worldwide researchers to work to reduce the pollutants formation and to improve the engine yields, especially by using homogenous charge combustion of lean mixtures. The numerical simulation of fuel blends oxidation is an essential tool to study the influence of fuel formulation and motor conditions on auto-ignition and on pollutants emissions. The automatic generation helps to obtain detailed kinetic models, especially at low temperature, where the number of reactions quickly exceeds thousand. The main purpose of this study is the generation and the validation of detailed kinetic models for the oxidation of gasoline blends using the EXGAS software. This work has implied an improvement of computation rules for thermodynamic and kinetic data, those were validated by numerical simulation using CHEMKIN II softwares. A large part of this work has concerned the understanding of the low temperature oxidation chemistry of the C5 and larger alkenes. Low and high temperature mechanisms were proposed and validated for 1 pentene, 1-hexene, the binary mixtures containing 1 hexene/iso octane, 1 hexene/toluene, iso octane/toluene and the ternary mixture of 1 hexene/toluene/iso octane. Simulations were also done for propene, 1-butene and iso-octane with former models including the modifications proposed in this PhD work. If the generated models allowed us to simulate with a good agreement the auto-ignition delays of the studied molecules and blends, some uncertainties still remains for some reaction paths leading to the formation of cyclic products in the case of alkenes oxidation at low temperature. It would be also interesting to carry on this work for combustion models of gasoline blends at low temperature. (author)
-
Validation of an O-18 leaf water enrichment model
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Jaeggi, M.; Saurer, M.; Siegwolf, R.
2002-03-01
The seasonal trend in {delta}{sup 18}O{sub ol} in leaf organic matter of spruce needles of mature trees could be modelled for two years. The seasonality was mainly explained by the {delta}{sup 18}O of top-soil water, whereas between years differences were due to variation in air humidity. Application of a third year's data set improved the correlation between modelled and measured {delta}{sup 18}O{sub ol} and thus validated our extended Dongmann model. (author)
-
Development and validation of logistic prognostic models by predefined SAS-macros
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ziegler, Christoph
2006-02-01
Full Text Available In medical decision making about therapies or diagnostic procedures in the treatment of patients the prognoses of the course or of the magnitude of diseases plays a relevant role. Beside of the subjective attitude of the clinician mathematical models can help in providing such prognoses. Such models are mostly multivariate regression models. In the case of a dichotomous outcome the logistic model will be applied as the standard model. In this paper we will describe SAS-macros for the development of such a model, for examination of the prognostic performance, and for model validation. The rational for this developmental approach of a prognostic modelling and the description of the macros can only given briefly in this paper. Much more details are given in. These 14 SAS-macros are a tool for setting up the whole process of deriving a prognostic model. Especially the possibility of validating the model by a standardized software tool gives an opportunity, which is not used in general in published prognostic models. Therefore, this can help to develop new models with good prognostic performance for use in medical applications.
-
Modeling and validation of existing VAV system components
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Nassif, N.; Kajl, S.; Sabourin, R. [Ecole de Technologie Superieure, Montreal, PQ (Canada)
2004-07-01
The optimization of supervisory control strategies and local-loop controllers can improve the performance of HVAC (heating, ventilating, air-conditioning) systems. In this study, the component model of the fan, the damper and the cooling coil were developed and validated against monitored data of an existing variable air volume (VAV) system installed at Montreal's Ecole de Technologie Superieure. The measured variables that influence energy use in individual HVAC models included: (1) outdoor and return air temperature and relative humidity, (2) supply air and water temperatures, (3) zone airflow rates, (4) supply duct, outlet fan, mixing plenum static pressures, (5) fan speed, and (6) minimum and principal damper and cooling and heating coil valve positions. The additional variables that were considered, but not measured were: (1) fan and outdoor airflow rate, (2) inlet and outlet cooling coil relative humidity, and (3) liquid flow rate through the heating or cooling coils. The paper demonstrates the challenges of the validation process when monitored data of existing VAV systems are used. 7 refs., 11 figs.
-
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Yoon, Churl; Lim, Hong Sik
2013-01-01
GAMMA-FP (GAs Multicomponent Mixture Analysis-Fission Products module), consists of gaseous and aerosol fission product analysis modules. The aerosol FP module adopts a multi-component and multi-sectional aerosol analysis model that has been developed based on the MAEROS model. For the first work of FP module development, the MAEROS model has been implemented and examined against some analytic solutions and experimental data by Yoo et al. An aerosol transport model was developed and implemented in the GAMMA-FP code, and verified. In this study, the aerosol deposition model in the GAMMA-FP code was improved by adopting recent achievements, and was validated against an experimental data available. The aerosol deposition model in the GAMMA-FP code has been improved and successfully validated against the STORM SR-11 deposition test. The simulation with the improved deposition model predicted the matched results with the experimental data well. For future studies, the aerosol deposition model by flow irregularities will be implemented and validated against the TRANSAT bend effect test
-
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Yoon, Churl; Lim, Hong Sik [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)
2013-10-15
GAMMA-FP (GAs Multicomponent Mixture Analysis-Fission Products module), consists of gaseous and aerosol fission product analysis modules. The aerosol FP module adopts a multi-component and multi-sectional aerosol analysis model that has been developed based on the MAEROS model. For the first work of FP module development, the MAEROS model has been implemented and examined against some analytic solutions and experimental data by Yoo et al. An aerosol transport model was developed and implemented in the GAMMA-FP code, and verified. In this study, the aerosol deposition model in the GAMMA-FP code was improved by adopting recent achievements, and was validated against an experimental data available. The aerosol deposition model in the GAMMA-FP code has been improved and successfully validated against the STORM SR-11 deposition test. The simulation with the improved deposition model predicted the matched results with the experimental data well. For future studies, the aerosol deposition model by flow irregularities will be implemented and validated against the TRANSAT bend effect test.
-
SU-E-T-50: Automatic Validation of Megavoltage Beams Modeled for Clinical Use in Radiation Therapy
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Melchior, M; Salinas Aranda, F; Sciutto, S; Dodat, D; Larragueta, N
2014-01-01
Purpose: To automatically validate megavoltage beams modeled in XiO™ 4.50 (Elekta, Stockholm, Sweden) and Varian Eclipse™ Treatment Planning Systems (TPS) (Varian Associates, Palo Alto, CA, USA), reducing validation time before beam-on for clinical use. Methods: A software application that can automatically read and analyze DICOM RT Dose and W2CAD files was developed using MatLab integrated development environment.TPS calculated dose distributions, in DICOM RT Dose format, and dose values measured in different Varian Clinac beams, in W2CAD format, were compared. Experimental beam data used were those acquired for beam commissioning, collected on a water phantom with a 2D automatic beam scanning system.Two methods were chosen to evaluate dose distributions fitting: gamma analysis and point tests described in Appendix E of IAEA TECDOC-1583. Depth dose curves and beam profiles were evaluated for both open and wedged beams. Tolerance parameters chosen for gamma analysis are 3% and 3 mm dose and distance, respectively.Absolute dose was measured independently at points proposed in Appendix E of TECDOC-1583 to validate software results. Results: TPS calculated depth dose distributions agree with measured beam data under fixed precision values at all depths analyzed. Measured beam dose profiles match TPS calculated doses with high accuracy in both open and wedged beams. Depth and profile dose distributions fitting analysis show gamma values < 1. Relative errors at points proposed in Appendix E of TECDOC-1583 meet therein recommended tolerances.Independent absolute dose measurements at points proposed in Appendix E of TECDOC-1583 confirm software results. Conclusion: Automatic validation of megavoltage beams modeled for their use in the clinic was accomplished. The software tool developed proved efficient, giving users a convenient and reliable environment to decide whether to accept or not a beam model for clinical use. Validation time before beam-on for clinical use
-
Validation of Bayesian analysis of compartmental kinetic models in medical imaging.
Sitek, Arkadiusz; Li, Quanzheng; El Fakhri, Georges; Alpert, Nathaniel M
2016-10-01
Kinetic compartmental analysis is frequently used to compute physiologically relevant quantitative values from time series of images. In this paper, a new approach based on Bayesian analysis to obtain information about these parameters is presented and validated. The closed-form of the posterior distribution of kinetic parameters is derived with a hierarchical prior to model the standard deviation of normally distributed noise. Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are used for numerical estimation of the posterior distribution. Computer simulations of the kinetics of F18-fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) are used to demonstrate drawing statistical inferences about kinetic parameters and to validate the theory and implementation. Additionally, point estimates of kinetic parameters and covariance of those estimates are determined using the classical non-linear least squares approach. Posteriors obtained using methods proposed in this work are accurate as no significant deviation from the expected shape of the posterior was found (one-sided P>0.08). It is demonstrated that the results obtained by the standard non-linear least-square methods fail to provide accurate estimation of uncertainty for the same data set (P<0.0001). The results of this work validate new methods for a computer simulations of FDG kinetics. Results show that in situations where the classical approach fails in accurate estimation of uncertainty, Bayesian estimation provides an accurate information about the uncertainties in the parameters. Although a particular example of FDG kinetics was used in the paper, the methods can be extended for different pharmaceuticals and imaging modalities. Copyright © 2016 Associazione Italiana di Fisica Medica. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
-
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Araoz, Joseph A.; Cardozo, Evelyn; Salomon, Marianne; Alejo, Lucio; Fransson, Torsten H.
2015-01-01
This work presents the development and validation of a numerical model that represents the performance of a gamma Stirling engine prototype. The model follows a modular approach considering ideal adiabatic working spaces; limited internal and external heat transfer through the heat exchangers; and mechanical and thermal losses during the cycle. In addition, it includes the calculation of the mechanical efficiency taking into account the crank mechanism effectiveness and the forced work during the cycle. Consequently, the model aims to predict the work that can be effectively taken from the shaft. The model was compared with experimental data obtained in an experimental rig built for the engine prototype. The results showed an acceptable degree of accuracy when comparing with the experimental data, with errors ranging from ±1% to ±8% for the temperature in the heater side, less than ±1% error for the cooler temperatures, and ±1 to ±8% for the brake power calculations. Therefore, the model was probed adequate for study of the prototype performance. In addition, the results of the simulation reflected the limited performance obtained during the prototype experiments, and a first analysis of the results attributed this to the forced work during the cycle. The implemented model is the basis for a subsequent parametric analysis that will complement the results presented. - Highlights: • A numerical model for a Stirling engine was developed. • A mechanical efficiency analysis was included in the model. • The model was validated with experimental data of a novel prototype. • The model results permit a deeper insight into the engine operation
-
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lee, Y. J.; Bae, S. W.; Chung, B. D.
2003-02-01
This report records the results of the code validation for the one-dimensional module of the MARS 2.1 thermal hydraulics analysis code by means of result-comparison with the RELAP5/MOD3.3 computer code. For the validation calculations, simulations of the RELAP5 code development assessment problem, which consists of 22 simulation problems in 3 categories, have been selected. The results of the 3 categories of simulations demonstrate that the one-dimensional module of the MARS 2.1 code and the RELAP5/MOD3.3 code are essentially the same code. This is expected as the two codes have basically the same set of field equations, constitutive equations and main thermal hydraulic models. The results suggests that the high level of code validity of the RELAP5/MOD3.3 can be directly applied to the MARS one-dimensional module
-
Experimental validation of a kilovoltage x-ray source model for computing imaging dose
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Poirier, Yannick, E-mail: yannick.poirier@cancercare.mb.ca [CancerCare Manitoba, 675 McDermot Ave, Winnipeg, Manitoba R3E 0V9 (Canada); Kouznetsov, Alexei; Koger, Brandon [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta T2N 1N4 (Canada); Tambasco, Mauro, E-mail: mtambasco@mail.sdsu.edu [Department of Physics, San Diego State University, San Diego, California 92182-1233 and Department of Physics and Astronomy and Department of Oncology, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta T2N 1N4 (Canada)
2014-04-15
Purpose: To introduce and validate a kilovoltage (kV) x-ray source model and characterization method to compute absorbed dose accrued from kV x-rays. Methods: The authors propose a simplified virtual point source model and characterization method for a kV x-ray source. The source is modeled by: (1) characterizing the spatial spectral and fluence distributions of the photons at a plane at the isocenter, and (2) creating a virtual point source from which photons are generated to yield the derived spatial spectral and fluence distribution at isocenter of an imaging system. The spatial photon distribution is determined by in-air relative dose measurements along the transverse (x) and radial (y) directions. The spectrum is characterized using transverse axis half-value layer measurements and the nominal peak potential (kVp). This source modeling approach is used to characterize a Varian{sup ®} on-board-imager (OBI{sup ®}) for four default cone-beam CT beam qualities: beams using a half bowtie filter (HBT) with 110 and 125 kVp, and a full bowtie filter (FBT) with 100 and 125 kVp. The source model and characterization method was validated by comparing dose computed by the authors’ inhouse software (kVDoseCalc) to relative dose measurements in a homogeneous and a heterogeneous block phantom comprised of tissue, bone, and lung-equivalent materials. Results: The characterized beam qualities and spatial photon distributions are comparable to reported values in the literature. Agreement between computed and measured percent depth-dose curves is ⩽2% in the homogeneous block phantom and ⩽2.5% in the heterogeneous block phantom. Transverse axis profiles taken at depths of 2 and 6 cm in the homogeneous block phantom show an agreement within 4%. All transverse axis dose profiles in water, in bone, and lung-equivalent materials for beams using a HBT, have an agreement within 5%. Measured profiles of FBT beams in bone and lung-equivalent materials were higher than their
-
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
French, D.; Rines, H.
1995-01-01
The Natural Resource Damage Assessment Model for Coastal and Marine Environments (NRDAM/CME) was developed by Applied Science Associates to simulate the fate and effects of oil and chemical spills into estuarine and marine environments. The US Department of the Interior has proposed the NRDAM/CME for use in Natural Resource Damage Assessment (NRDA) regulations under CERCLA. As part of the evaluation of model performance, the NRDAM/CME has been validated with observational data from case histories of oil spills, including the Exxon Valdez, World Prodigy, Mega Borg, Apex Houston and a number of others. Primarily, the data available for validation were of oil slick trajectory and coverage (e.g., overflight maps), length of shoreline oiled, area of marshes oiled, and a number of oiled birds recovered. Model performance was dependent on the accuracy of available wind and current data (the primary forces affecting fate) and bird abundances. Where these data sources were good (relatively well quantified), model performance was excellent. Results of the model simulations also provide an interesting sensitivity analysis and indications of relative effects of oil under various spill scenarios and conditions
-
Effects of Task Performance and Task Complexity on the Validity of Computational Models of Attention
Koning, L. de; Maanen, P.P. van; Dongen, K. van
2008-01-01
Computational models of attention can be used as a component of decision support systems. For accurate support, a computational model of attention has to be valid and robust. The effects of task performance and task complexity on the validity of three different computational models of attention were
-
Apar-T: code, validation, and physical interpretation of particle-in-cell results
Melzani, Mickaël; Winisdoerffer, Christophe; Walder, Rolf; Folini, Doris; Favre, Jean M.; Krastanov, Stefan; Messmer, Peter
2013-10-01
simulations. The other is that the level of electric field fluctuations scales as 1/ΛPIC ∝ p. We provide a corresponding exact expression, taking into account the finite superparticle size. We confirm both expectations with simulations. Fourth, we compare the Vlasov-Maxwell theory, often used for code benchmarking, to the PIC model. The former describes a phase-space fluid with Λ = + ∞ and no correlations, while the PIC plasma features a small Λ and a high level of correlations when compared to a real plasma. These differences have to be kept in mind when interpreting and validating PIC results against the Vlasov-Maxwell theory and when modeling real physical plasmas.
-
Disturbed zone modelling SVC validation drift using UDEC-BB, models 1 to 8 - Stripa phase 3
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Monsen, K.; Makurat, A.; Barton, N.
1991-01-01
Several rock mechanics studies were performed within the site characterization and validation (SCV) project at Stripa. Joints represented in Harwell's stochastically generated 8m x 8m x 8m cubes were used to select four possible joints geometries for two-dimensional rock mechanics simulations of the 2.8 x 2.2 m validation drift, and the rock mass response to its excavation. The joints intersecting the four end faces of these cubes were set up in distinct element UDEC-BB models, and loaded with boundary stresses of 10 MPa vertically and 14 to 18 MPa horizontally. In numerical models 1, 2, 3 and 4 average values of the Barton Bandis joint parameters JRC, JCS and φ r were utilized for all joints, irrespective of length. These values were obtained from NGI's index characterization of 220 joints in 100 mm core and from 200 mm diameter and 1 x 1 2m block testing were coupled closure-shear-flow testing (CSFT) was also performed. In numerical models 5, 6, 7, 8 the same joint geometries were utilized with length-dependent values of JRC, JCS and φ r . The longest joints were given low values representing mineralized persistent discontinuities, while the shortest joints were given high values. Detailed analyses were made of the tangential and radial stress magnitudes that were obtained in the four UDEC-BB discontinuum models 5, 6, 7 and 8. Results were presented for all sectors of the models as a function of radius from the drift walls. These stress magnitudes were compared with those from an equivalent continuum model which showed, as expected, much more predictable stress gradients. Modelled drift closures ranged from 2 to 3 mm in the jointed models and from 1 to 1.5 mm in the continuum model. Local tensile stress development maximum 28 MPa, and local shearing of individual joints, maximum 1.0 mm, were a feature of the jointed models. Peak tangential stresses locally reached 54 to 74 MPa in the jointed models compared to 43 MPa in the continuum model. (au)
-
Modeling and validating HL7 FHIR profiles using semantic web Shape Expressions (ShEx).
Solbrig, Harold R; Prud'hommeaux, Eric; Grieve, Grahame; McKenzie, Lloyd; Mandel, Joshua C; Sharma, Deepak K; Jiang, Guoqian
2017-03-01
HL7 Fast Healthcare Interoperability Resources (FHIR) is an emerging open standard for the exchange of electronic healthcare information. FHIR resources are defined in a specialized modeling language. FHIR instances can currently be represented in either XML or JSON. The FHIR and Semantic Web communities are developing a third FHIR instance representation format in Resource Description Framework (RDF). Shape Expressions (ShEx), a formal RDF data constraint language, is a candidate for describing and validating the FHIR RDF representation. Create a FHIR to ShEx model transformation and assess its ability to describe and validate FHIR RDF data. We created the methods and tools that generate the ShEx schemas modeling the FHIR to RDF specification being developed by HL7 ITS/W3C RDF Task Force, and evaluated the applicability of ShEx in the description and validation of FHIR to RDF transformations. The ShEx models contributed significantly to workgroup consensus. Algorithmic transformations from the FHIR model to ShEx schemas and FHIR example data to RDF transformations were incorporated into the FHIR build process. ShEx schemas representing 109 FHIR resources were used to validate 511 FHIR RDF data examples from the Standards for Trial Use (STU 3) Ballot version. We were able to uncover unresolved issues in the FHIR to RDF specification and detect 10 types of errors and root causes in the actual implementation. The FHIR ShEx representations have been included in the official FHIR web pages for the STU 3 Ballot version since September 2016. ShEx can be used to define and validate the syntax of a FHIR resource, which is complementary to the use of RDF Schema (RDFS) and Web Ontology Language (OWL) for semantic validation. ShEx proved useful for describing a standard model of FHIR RDF data. The combination of a formal model and a succinct format enabled comprehensive review and automated validation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
-
Validation of a tuber blight (Phytophthora infestans) prediction model
Potato tuber blight caused by Phytophthora infestans accounts for significant losses in storage. There is limited published quantitative data on predicting tuber blight. We validated a tuber blight prediction model developed in New York with cultivars Allegany, NY 101, and Katahdin using independent...
-
Technical Note: Calibration and validation of geophysical observation models
Salama, M.S.; van der Velde, R.; van der Woerd, H.J.; Kromkamp, J.C.; Philippart, C.J.M.; Joseph, A.T.; O'Neill, P.E.; Lang, R.H.; Gish, T.; Werdell, P.J.; Su, Z.
2012-01-01
We present a method to calibrate and validate observational models that interrelate remotely sensed energy fluxes to geophysical variables of land and water surfaces. Coincident sets of remote sensing observation of visible and microwave radiations and geophysical data are assembled and subdivided
-
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Viallet, E.; Bolsee, G.; Ladouceur, B.; Goubin, T.; Rigaudeau, J.
2003-01-01
The fuel assembly mechanical strength must be justified with respect to the lateral loads under accident conditions, in particular seismic loads. This justification is performed by means of time-history analyses with dynamic models of an assembly row in the core, allowing for assembly deformations, impacts at grid locations and reactor coolant effects. Due to necessary simplifications, the models include 'equivalent' parameters adjusted with respect to dynamic characterisation tests of the fuel assemblies. Complementing such tests on isolated assemblies by an overall model validation with shaking table tests on interacting assemblies is obviously desirable. Seismic tests have been performed by French CEA (Commissariat a l'Energie Atomique) on a row of six full scale fuel assemblies, including two types of 17 x 17 12ft design. The row models are built according to the usual procedure, with preliminary characterisation tests performed on a single assembly. The test-calculation comparisons are made for two test configurations : in air and in water. The relatively large number of accelerograms (15, used for each configuration) is also favourable to significant comparisons. The results are presented for the impact forces at row ends, displacements at mid assembly, and also 'statistical' parameters. Despite a non-negligible scattering in the results obtained with different accelerograms, the calculations prove realistic, and the modelling process is validated with a good confidence level. This satisfactory validation allows to evaluate precisely the margins in the seismic design methodology of the fuel assemblies, and thus to confirm the safety of the plants in case of seismic event. (author)
-
Validation of a risk prediction model for Barrett’s esophagus in an Australian population
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ireland CJ
2018-03-01
Full Text Available Colin J Ireland,1 Andrea L Gordon,2 Sarah K Thompson,3 David I Watson,4 David C Whiteman,5 Richard L Reed,6 Adrian Esterman1,7 1School of Nursing and Midwifery, Division of Health Sciences, University of South Australia, Adelaide, SA, Australia; 2School of Pharmacy and Medical Science, Division of Health Sciences, University of South Australia, Adelaide, SA, Australia; 3Discipline of Surgery, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA, Australia; 4Department of Surgery, Flinders University, Bedford Park, SA, Australia; 5Population Health Department, QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute, Herston, QLD, Australia; 6Discipline of General Practice, Flinders University, Bedford Park, SA, Australia; 7Australian Institute of Tropical Health and Medicine, James Cook University, Cairns, QLD, Australia Background: Esophageal adenocarcinoma is a disease that has a high mortality rate, the only known precursor being Barrett’s esophagus (BE. While screening for BE is not cost-effective at the population level, targeted screening might be beneficial. We have developed a risk prediction model to identify people with BE, and here we present the external validation of this model. Materials and methods: A cohort study was undertaken to validate a risk prediction model for BE. Individuals with endoscopy and histopathology proven BE completed a questionnaire containing variables previously identified as risk factors for this condition. Their responses were combined with data from a population sample for analysis. Risk scores were derived for each participant. Overall performance of the risk prediction model in terms of calibration and discrimination was assessed. Results: Scores from 95 individuals with BE and 636 individuals from the general population were analyzed. The Brier score was 0.118, suggesting reasonable overall performance. The area under the receiver operating characteristic was 0.83 (95% CI 0.78–0.87. The Hosmer–Lemeshow statistic was p=0
-
Quantification of Dynamic Model Validation Metrics Using Uncertainty Propagation from Requirements
Brown, Andrew M.; Peck, Jeffrey A.; Stewart, Eric C.
2018-01-01
The Space Launch System, NASA's new large launch vehicle for long range space exploration, is presently in the final design and construction phases, with the first launch scheduled for 2019. A dynamic model of the system has been created and is critical for calculation of interface loads and natural frequencies and mode shapes for guidance, navigation, and control (GNC). Because of the program and schedule constraints, a single modal test of the SLS will be performed while bolted down to the Mobile Launch Pad just before the first launch. A Monte Carlo and optimization scheme will be performed to create thousands of possible models based on given dispersions in model properties and to determine which model best fits the natural frequencies and mode shapes from modal test. However, the question still remains as to whether this model is acceptable for the loads and GNC requirements. An uncertainty propagation and quantification (UP and UQ) technique to develop a quantitative set of validation metrics that is based on the flight requirements has therefore been developed and is discussed in this paper. There has been considerable research on UQ and UP and validation in the literature, but very little on propagating the uncertainties from requirements, so most validation metrics are "rules-of-thumb;" this research seeks to come up with more reason-based metrics. One of the main assumptions used to achieve this task is that the uncertainty in the modeling of the fixed boundary condition is accurate, so therefore that same uncertainty can be used in propagating the fixed-test configuration to the free-free actual configuration. The second main technique applied here is the usage of the limit-state formulation to quantify the final probabilistic parameters and to compare them with the requirements. These techniques are explored with a simple lumped spring-mass system and a simplified SLS model. When completed, it is anticipated that this requirements-based validation
-
Heat Transfer Modeling and Validation for Optically Thick Alumina Fibrous Insulation
Daryabeigi, Kamran
2009-01-01
Combined radiation/conduction heat transfer through unbonded alumina fibrous insulation was modeled using the diffusion approximation for modeling the radiation component of heat transfer in the optically thick insulation. The validity of the heat transfer model was investigated by comparison to previously reported experimental effective thermal conductivity data over the insulation density range of 24 to 96 kg/cu m, with a pressure range of 0.001 to 750 torr (0.1 to 101.3 x 10(exp 3) Pa), and test sample hot side temperature range of 530 to 1360 K. The model was further validated by comparison to thermal conductivity measurements using the transient step heating technique on an insulation sample at a density of 144 kg/cu m over a pressure range of 0.001 to 760 torr, and temperature range of 290 to 1090 K.
-
Evaluation of Validity and Reliability for Hierarchical Scales Using Latent Variable Modeling
Raykov, Tenko; Marcoulides, George A.
2012-01-01
A latent variable modeling method is outlined, which accomplishes estimation of criterion validity and reliability for a multicomponent measuring instrument with hierarchical structure. The approach provides point and interval estimates for the scale criterion validity and reliability coefficients, and can also be used for testing composite or…
-
Validating neural-network refinements of nuclear mass models
Utama, R.; Piekarewicz, J.
2018-01-01
Background: Nuclear astrophysics centers on the role of nuclear physics in the cosmos. In particular, nuclear masses at the limits of stability are critical in the development of stellar structure and the origin of the elements. Purpose: We aim to test and validate the predictions of recently refined nuclear mass models against the newly published AME2016 compilation. Methods: The basic paradigm underlining the recently refined nuclear mass models is based on existing state-of-the-art models that are subsequently refined through the training of an artificial neural network. Bayesian inference is used to determine the parameters of the neural network so that statistical uncertainties are provided for all model predictions. Results: We observe a significant improvement in the Bayesian neural network (BNN) predictions relative to the corresponding "bare" models when compared to the nearly 50 new masses reported in the AME2016 compilation. Further, AME2016 estimates for the handful of impactful isotopes in the determination of r -process abundances are found to be in fairly good agreement with our theoretical predictions. Indeed, the BNN-improved Duflo-Zuker model predicts a root-mean-square deviation relative to experiment of σrms≃400 keV. Conclusions: Given the excellent performance of the BNN refinement in confronting the recently published AME2016 compilation, we are confident of its critical role in our quest for mass models of the highest quality. Moreover, as uncertainty quantification is at the core of the BNN approach, the improved mass models are in a unique position to identify those nuclei that will have the strongest impact in resolving some of the outstanding questions in nuclear astrophysics.
-
When is the Anelastic Approximation a Valid Model for Compressible Convection?
Alboussiere, T.; Curbelo, J.; Labrosse, S.; Ricard, Y. R.; Dubuffet, F.
2017-12-01
Compressible convection is ubiquitous in large natural systems such Planetary atmospheres, stellar and planetary interiors. Its modelling is notoriously more difficult than the case when the Boussinesq approximation applies. One reason for that difficulty has been put forward by Ogura and Phillips (1961): the compressible equations generate sound waves with very short time scales which need to be resolved. This is why they introduced an anelastic model, based on an expansion of the solution around an isentropic hydrostatic profile. How accurate is that anelastic model? What are the conditions for its validity? To answer these questions, we have developed a numerical model for the full set of compressible equations and compared its solutions with those of the corresponding anelastic model. We considered a simple rectangular 2D Rayleigh-Bénard configuration and decided to restrict the analysis to infinite Prandtl numbers. This choice is valid for convection in the mantles of rocky planets, but more importantly lead to a zero Mach number. So we got rid of the question of the interference of acoustic waves with convection. In that simplified context, we used the entropy balances (that of the full set of equations and that of the anelastic model) to investigate the differences between exact and anelastic solutions. We found that the validity of the anelastic model is dictated by two conditions: first, the superadiabatic temperature difference must be small compared with the adiabatic temperature difference (as expected) ɛ = Δ TSA / delta Ta << 1, and secondly that the product of ɛ with the Nusselt number must be small.
-
Model-based Systems Engineering: Creation and Implementation of Model Validation Rules for MOS 2.0
Schmidt, Conrad K.
2013-01-01
Model-based Systems Engineering (MBSE) is an emerging modeling application that is used to enhance the system development process. MBSE allows for the centralization of project and system information that would otherwise be stored in extraneous locations, yielding better communication, expedited document generation and increased knowledge capture. Based on MBSE concepts and the employment of the Systems Modeling Language (SysML), extremely large and complex systems can be modeled from conceptual design through all system lifecycles. The Operations Revitalization Initiative (OpsRev) seeks to leverage MBSE to modernize the aging Advanced Multi-Mission Operations Systems (AMMOS) into the Mission Operations System 2.0 (MOS 2.0). The MOS 2.0 will be delivered in a series of conceptual and design models and documents built using the modeling tool MagicDraw. To ensure model completeness and cohesiveness, it is imperative that the MOS 2.0 models adhere to the specifications, patterns and profiles of the Mission Service Architecture Framework, thus leading to the use of validation rules. This paper outlines the process by which validation rules are identified, designed, implemented and tested. Ultimately, these rules provide the ability to maintain model correctness and synchronization in a simple, quick and effective manner, thus allowing the continuation of project and system progress.
-
NUMERICAL MODELLING AND EXPERIMENTAL INFLATION VALIDATION OF A BIAS TWO-WHEEL TIRE
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
CHUNG KET THEIN
2016-02-01
Full Text Available This paper presents a parametric study on the development of a computational model for bias two-wheel tire through finite element analysis (FEA. An 80/90- 17 bias two-wheel tire was adopted which made up of four major layers of rubber compound with different material properties to strengthen the structure. Mooney-Rivlin hyperelastic model was applied to represent the behaviour of incompressible rubber compound. A 3D tire model was built for structural static finite element analysis. The result was validated from the inflation analysis. Structural static finite element analysis method is suitable for evaluation of the tire design and improvement of the tire behaviour to desired performance. Experimental tire was inflated at various pressures and the geometry between numerical and experimental tire were compared. There are good agreements between numerical simulation model and the experiment results. This indicates that the simulation model can be applied to the bias two-wheel tire design in order to predict the tire behaviour and improve its mechanical characteristics.
-
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Aagaard Madsen, Helge; Larsen, Gunner Chr.; Larsen, Torben J.
2010-01-01
in an aeroelastic model. Calibration and validation of the different parts of the model is carried out by comparisons with actuator disk and actuator line (ACL) computations as well as with inflow measurements on a full-scale 2 MW turbine. It is shown that the load generating part of the increased turbulence....... Finally, added turbulence characteristics are compared with correlation results from literature. ©2010 American Society of Mechanical Engineers...
-
DMFC performance and methanol cross-over: Experimental analysis and model validation
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Casalegno, A.; Marchesi, R. [Dipartimento di Energia, Politecnico di Milano, Piazza Leonardo da Vinci 32, 20133 Milano (Italy)
2008-10-15
A combined experimental and modelling approach is proposed to analyze methanol cross-over and its effect on DMFC performance. The experimental analysis is performed in order to allow an accurate investigation of methanol cross-over influence on DMFC performance, hence measurements were characterized in terms of uncertainty and reproducibility. The findings suggest that methanol cross-over is mainly determined by diffusion transport and affects cell performance partly via methanol electro-oxidation at the cathode. The modelling analysis is carried out to further investigate methanol cross-over phenomenon. A simple model evaluates the effectiveness of two proposed interpretations regarding methanol cross-over and its effects. The model is validated using the experimental data gathered. Both the experimental analysis and the proposed and validated model allow a substantial step forward in the understanding of the main phenomena associated with methanol cross-over. The findings confirm the possibility to reduce methanol cross-over by optimizing anode feeding. (author)
-
42 CFR 493.571 - Disclosure of accreditation, State and CMS validation inspection results.
2010-10-01
... 42 Public Health 5 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Disclosure of accreditation, State and CMS... Program § 493.571 Disclosure of accreditation, State and CMS validation inspection results. (a) Accreditation organization inspection results. CMS may disclose accreditation organization inspection results to...
-
Modelling and validation of electromechanical shock absorbers
Tonoli, Andrea; Amati, Nicola; Girardello Detoni, Joaquim; Galluzzi, Renato; Gasparin, Enrico
2013-08-01
Electromechanical vehicle suspension systems represent a promising substitute to conventional hydraulic solutions. However, the design of electromechanical devices that are able to supply high damping forces without exceeding geometric dimension and mass constraints is a difficult task. All these challenges meet in off-road vehicle suspension systems, where the power density of the dampers is a crucial parameter. In this context, the present paper outlines a particular shock absorber configuration where a suitable electric machine and a transmission mechanism are utilised to meet off-road vehicle requirements. A dynamic model is used to represent the device. Subsequently, experimental tests are performed on an actual prototype to verify the functionality of the damper and validate the proposed model.
-
Modelling of PEM Fuel Cell Performance: Steady-State and Dynamic Experimental Validation
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Idoia San Martín
2014-02-01
Full Text Available This paper reports on the modelling of a commercial 1.2 kW proton exchange membrane fuel cell (PEMFC, based on interrelated electrical and thermal models. The electrical model proposed is based on the integration of the thermodynamic and electrochemical phenomena taking place in the FC whilst the thermal model is established from the FC thermal energy balance. The combination of both models makes it possible to predict the FC voltage, based on the current demanded and the ambient temperature. Furthermore, an experimental characterization is conducted and the parameters for the models associated with the FC electrical and thermal performance are obtained. The models are implemented in Matlab Simulink and validated in a number of operating environments, for steady-state and dynamic modes alike. In turn, the FC models are validated in an actual microgrid operating environment, through the series connection of 4 PEMFC. The simulations of the models precisely and accurately reproduce the FC electrical and thermal performance.
-
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zerbino, H.
1999-01-01
In 1994-1996, Thomson Training and Simulation (TT and S) earned out the D50 Project, which involved the design and construction of optimized replica simulators for one Dutch and three German Nuclear Power Plants. It was recognized early on that the faithful reproduction of the Siemens reactor control and protection systems would impose extremely stringent demands on the simulation models, particularly the Core physics and the RCS thermohydraulics. The quality of the models, and their thorough validation, were thus essential. The present paper describes the main features of the fully 3D Core model implemented by TT and S, and its extensive validation campaign, which was defined in extremely positive collaboration with the Customer and the Core Data suppliers. (author)
-
Cross-Validation of Aerobic Capacity Prediction Models in Adolescents.
Burns, Ryan Donald; Hannon, James C; Brusseau, Timothy A; Eisenman, Patricia A; Saint-Maurice, Pedro F; Welk, Greg J; Mahar, Matthew T
2015-08-01
Cardiorespiratory endurance is a component of health-related fitness. FITNESSGRAM recommends the Progressive Aerobic Cardiovascular Endurance Run (PACER) or One mile Run/Walk (1MRW) to assess cardiorespiratory endurance by estimating VO2 Peak. No research has cross-validated prediction models from both PACER and 1MRW, including the New PACER Model and PACER-Mile Equivalent (PACER-MEQ) using current standards. The purpose of this study was to cross-validate prediction models from PACER and 1MRW against measured VO2 Peak in adolescents. Cardiorespiratory endurance data were collected on 90 adolescents aged 13-16 years (Mean = 14.7 ± 1.3 years; 32 girls, 52 boys) who completed the PACER and 1MRW in addition to a laboratory maximal treadmill test to measure VO2 Peak. Multiple correlations among various models with measured VO2 Peak were considered moderately strong (R = .74-0.78), and prediction error (RMSE) ranged from 5.95 ml·kg⁻¹,min⁻¹ to 8.27 ml·kg⁻¹.min⁻¹. Criterion-referenced agreement into FITNESSGRAM's Healthy Fitness Zones was considered fair-to-good among models (Kappa = 0.31-0.62; Agreement = 75.5-89.9%; F = 0.08-0.65). In conclusion, prediction models demonstrated moderately strong linear relationships with measured VO2 Peak, fair prediction error, and fair-to-good criterion referenced agreement with measured VO2 Peak into FITNESSGRAM's Healthy Fitness Zones.
-
Experimental validation of a heat transfer model for concentrating photovoltaic system
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Sendhil Kumar, Natarajan; Matty, Katz; Rita, Ebner; Simon, Weingaertner; Ortrun, Aßländer; Alex, Cole; Roland, Wertz; Tim, Giesen; Tapas Kumar, Mallick
2012-01-01
In this paper, a three dimensional heat transfer model is presented for a novel concentrating photovoltaic design for Active Solar Panel Initiative System (ASPIS). The concentration ratio of two systems (early and integrated prototype) are 5× and 10× respectively, designed for roof-top integrated Photovoltaic systems. ANSYS 12.1, CFX package was effectively used to predict the temperatures of the components of the both ASPIS systems at various boundary conditions. The predicted component temperatures of an early prototype were compared with experimental results of ASPIS, which were carried out in Solecta – Israel and at the Austrian Institute of Technology (AIT) – Austria. It was observed that the solar cell and lens temperature prediction shows good agreement with Solecta measurements. The minimum and maximum deviation of 3.8% and 17.9% were observed between numerical and Solecta measurements and the maximum deviations of 16.9% were observed between modeling and AIT measurements. Thus, the developed validated thermal model enables to predict the component temperatures for concentrating photovoltaic systems. - Highlights: ► Experimentally validated heat transfer model for concentrating Photovoltaic system developed. ► Predictions of solar cell temperatures for parallactic tracking CPV system for roof integration. ► The ASPIS module contains 2 mm wide 216 solar cells manufactured based on SATURN technology. ► A solar cell temperature of 44 °C was predicted for solar radiation intensity was 1000 W/m 2 and ambient temperature was 20 °C. ► Average deviation was 6% and enabled to predict temperature of any CPV system.
-
Unit testing, model validation, and biological simulation.
Sarma, Gopal P; Jacobs, Travis W; Watts, Mark D; Ghayoomie, S Vahid; Larson, Stephen D; Gerkin, Richard C
2016-01-01
The growth of the software industry has gone hand in hand with the development of tools and cultural practices for ensuring the reliability of complex pieces of software. These tools and practices are now acknowledged to be essential to the management of modern software. As computational models and methods have become increasingly common in the biological sciences, it is important to examine how these practices can accelerate biological software development and improve research quality. In this article, we give a focused case study of our experience with the practices of unit testing and test-driven development in OpenWorm, an open-science project aimed at modeling Caenorhabditis elegans. We identify and discuss the challenges of incorporating test-driven development into a heterogeneous, data-driven project, as well as the role of model validation tests, a category of tests unique to software which expresses scientific models.
-
Evaluating Domestic Hot Water Distribution System Options with Validated Analysis Models
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Weitzel, E. [Alliance for Residential Building Innovation, Davis, CA (United States); Hoeschele, E. [Alliance for Residential Building Innovation, Davis, CA (United States)
2014-09-01
A developing body of work is forming that collects data on domestic hot water consumption, water use behaviors, and energy efficiency of various distribution systems. Transient System Simulation Tool (TRNSYS) is a full distribution system developed that has been validated using field monitoring data and then exercised in a number of climates to understand climate impact on performance. In this study, the Building America team built upon previous analysis modeling work to evaluate differing distribution systems and the sensitivities of water heating energy and water use efficiency to variations of climate, load, distribution type, insulation and compact plumbing practices. Overall, 124 different TRNSYS models were simulated. The results of this work are useful in informing future development of water heating best practices guides as well as more accurate (and simulation time efficient) distribution models for annual whole house simulation programs.
-
Jian, L. K.; MacNeice, P. J.; Mays, M. L.; Taktakishvili, A.; Odstrcil, D.; Jackson, B.; Yu, H.-S.; Riley, P.; Sokolov, I. V.
2016-01-01
The prediction of the background global solar wind is a necessary part of space weather forecasting. Several coronal and heliospheric models have been installed and/or recently upgraded at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC), including the Wang-Sheely-Arge (WSA)-Enlil model, MHD-Around-a-Sphere (MAS)-Enlil model, Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF), and Heliospheric tomography using interplanetary scintillation data. Ulysses recorded the last fast latitudinal scan from southern to northern poles in 2007. By comparing the modeling results with Ulysses observations over seven Carrington rotations, we have extended our third-party validation from the previous near-Earth solar wind to middle to high latitudes, in the same late declining phase of solar cycle 23. Besides visual comparison, wehave quantitatively assessed the models capabilities in reproducing the time series, statistics, and latitudinal variations of solar wind parameters for a specific range of model parameter settings, inputs, and grid configurations available at CCMC. The WSA-Enlil model results vary with three different magnetogram inputs.The MAS-Enlil model captures the solar wind parameters well, despite its underestimation of the speed at middle to high latitudes. The new version of SWMF misses many solar wind variations probably because it uses lower grid resolution than other models. The interplanetary scintillation-tomography cannot capture the latitudinal variations of solar wind well yet. Because the model performance varies with parameter settings which are optimized for different epochs or flow states, the performance metric study provided here can serve as a template that researchers can use to validate the models for the time periods and conditions of interest to them.
-
Jian, L. K.; MacNeice, P. J.; Mays, M. L.; Taktakishvili, A.; Odstrcil, D.; Jackson, B.; Yu, H.-S.; Riley, P.; Sokolov, I. V.
2016-08-01
The prediction of the background global solar wind is a necessary part of space weather forecasting. Several coronal and heliospheric models have been installed and/or recently upgraded at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC), including the Wang-Sheely-Arge (WSA)-Enlil model, MHD-Around-a-Sphere (MAS)-Enlil model, Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF), and heliospheric tomography using interplanetary scintillation data. Ulysses recorded the last fast latitudinal scan from southern to northern poles in 2007. By comparing the modeling results with Ulysses observations over seven Carrington rotations, we have extended our third-party validation from the previous near-Earth solar wind to middle to high latitudes, in the same late declining phase of solar cycle 23. Besides visual comparison, we have quantitatively assessed the models' capabilities in reproducing the time series, statistics, and latitudinal variations of solar wind parameters for a specific range of model parameter settings, inputs, and grid configurations available at CCMC. The WSA-Enlil model results vary with three different magnetogram inputs. The MAS-Enlil model captures the solar wind parameters well, despite its underestimation of the speed at middle to high latitudes. The new version of SWMF misses many solar wind variations probably because it uses lower grid resolution than other models. The interplanetary scintillation-tomography cannot capture the latitudinal variations of solar wind well yet. Because the model performance varies with parameter settings which are optimized for different epochs or flow states, the performance metric study provided here can serve as a template that researchers can use to validate the models for the time periods and conditions of interest to them.
-
Less is more? Assessing the validity of the ICD-11 model of PTSD across multiple trauma samples
Hansen, Maj; Hyland, Philip; Armour, Cherie; Shevlin, Mark; Elklit, Ask
2015-01-01
Background In the 5th edition of the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM-5), the symptom profile of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) was expanded to include 20 symptoms. An alternative model of PTSD is outlined in the proposed 11th edition of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-11) that includes just six symptoms. Objectives and method The objectives of the current study are: 1) to independently investigate the fit of the ICD-11 model of PTSD, and three DSM-5-based models of PTSD, across seven different trauma samples (N=3,746) using confirmatory factor analysis; 2) to assess the concurrent validity of the ICD-11 model of PTSD; and 3) to determine if there are significant differences in diagnostic rates between the ICD-11 guidelines and the DSM-5 criteria. Results The ICD-11 model of PTSD was found to provide excellent model fit in six of the seven trauma samples, and tests of factorial invariance showed that the model performs equally well for males and females. DSM-5 models provided poor fit of the data. Concurrent validity was established as the ICD-11 PTSD factors were all moderately to strongly correlated with scores of depression, anxiety, dissociation, and aggression. Levels of association were similar for ICD-11 and DSM-5 suggesting that explanatory power is not affected due to the limited number of items included in the ICD-11 model. Diagnostic rates were significantly lower according to ICD-11 guidelines compared to the DSM-5 criteria. Conclusions The proposed factor structure of the ICD-11 model of PTSD appears valid across multiple trauma types, possesses good concurrent validity, and is more stringent in terms of diagnosis compared to the DSM-5 criteria. PMID:26450830
-
Less is more? Assessing the validity of the ICD-11 model of PTSD across multiple trauma samples
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Maj Hansen
2015-10-01
Full Text Available Background: In the 5th edition of the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM-5, the symptom profile of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD was expanded to include 20 symptoms. An alternative model of PTSD is outlined in the proposed 11th edition of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-11 that includes just six symptoms. Objectives and method: The objectives of the current study are: 1 to independently investigate the fit of the ICD-11 model of PTSD, and three DSM-5-based models of PTSD, across seven different trauma samples (N=3,746 using confirmatory factor analysis; 2 to assess the concurrent validity of the ICD-11 model of PTSD; and 3 to determine if there are significant differences in diagnostic rates between the ICD-11 guidelines and the DSM-5 criteria. Results: The ICD-11 model of PTSD was found to provide excellent model fit in six of the seven trauma samples, and tests of factorial invariance showed that the model performs equally well for males and females. DSM-5 models provided poor fit of the data. Concurrent validity was established as the ICD-11 PTSD factors were all moderately to strongly correlated with scores of depression, anxiety, dissociation, and aggression. Levels of association were similar for ICD-11 and DSM-5 suggesting that explanatory power is not affected due to the limited number of items included in the ICD-11 model. Diagnostic rates were significantly lower according to ICD-11 guidelines compared to the DSM-5 criteria. Conclusions: The proposed factor structure of the ICD-11 model of PTSD appears valid across multiple trauma types, possesses good concurrent validity, and is more stringent in terms of diagnosis compared to the DSM-5 criteria.
-
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Chow, Edward; Abdolell, Mohamed; Panzarella, Tony; Harris, Kristin; Bezjak, Andrea; Warde, Padraig; Tannock, Ian
2009-01-01
Purpose: To validate a predictive model for survival of patients attending a palliative radiotherapy clinic. Methods and Materials: We described previously a model that had good predictive value for survival of patients referred during 1999 (1). The six prognostic factors (primary cancer site, site of metastases, Karnofsky performance score, and the fatigue, appetite and shortness-of-breath items from the Edmonton Symptom Assessment Scale) identified in this training set were extracted from the prospective database for the year 2000. We generated a partial score whereby each prognostic factor was assigned a value proportional to its prognostic weight. The sum of the partial scores for each patient was used to construct a survival prediction score (SPS). Patients were also grouped according to the number of these risk factors (NRF) that they possessed. The probability of survival at 3, 6, and 12 months was generated. The models were evaluated for their ability to predict survival in this validation set with appropriate statistical tests. Results: The median survival and survival probabilities of the training and validation sets were similar when separated into three groups using both SPS and NRF methods. There was no statistical difference in the performance of the SPS and NRF methods in survival prediction. Conclusion: Both the SPS and NRF models for predicting survival in patients referred for palliative radiotherapy have been validated. The NRF model is preferred because it is simpler and avoids the need to remember the weightings among the prognostic factors
-
Integral Reactor Containment Condensation Model and Experimental Validation
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Wu, Qiao [Oregon State Univ., Corvallis, OR (United States); Corradini, Michael [Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (United States)
2016-05-02
This NEUP funded project, NEUP 12-3630, is for experimental, numerical and analytical studies on high-pressure steam condensation phenomena in a steel containment vessel connected to a water cooling tank, carried out at Oregon State University (OrSU) and the University of Wisconsin at Madison (UW-Madison). In the three years of investigation duration, following the original proposal, the planned tasks have been completed: (1) Performed a scaling study for the full pressure test facility applicable to the reference design for the condensation heat transfer process during design basis accidents (DBAs), modified the existing test facility to route the steady-state secondary steam flow into the high pressure containment for controllable condensation tests, and extended the operations at negative gage pressure conditions (OrSU). (2) Conducted a series of DBA and quasi-steady experiments using the full pressure test facility to provide a reliable high pressure condensation database (OrSU). (3) Analyzed experimental data and evaluated condensation model for the experimental conditions, and predicted the prototypic containment performance under accidental conditions (UW-Madison). A film flow model was developed for the scaling analysis, and the results suggest that the 1/3 scaled test facility covers large portion of laminar film flow, leading to a lower average heat transfer coefficient comparing to the prototypic value. Although it is conservative in reactor safety analysis, the significant reduction of heat transfer coefficient (50%) could under estimate the prototypic condensation heat transfer rate, resulting in inaccurate prediction of the decay heat removal capability. Further investigation is thus needed to quantify the scaling distortion for safety analysis code validation. Experimental investigations were performed in the existing MASLWR test facility at OrST with minor modifications. A total of 13 containment condensation tests were conducted for pressure
-
Maasha, Rumaasha; Towner, Robert L.
2012-01-01
High-fidelity Finite Element Models (FEMs) were developed to support a recent test program at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC). The FEMs correspond to test articles used for a series of acoustic tests. Modal survey tests were used to validate the FEMs for five acoustic tests (a bare panel and four different mass-loaded panel configurations). An additional modal survey test was performed on the empty test fixture (orthogrid panel mounting fixture, between the reverb and anechoic chambers). Modal survey tests were used to test-validate the dynamic characteristics of FEMs used for acoustic test excitation. Modal survey testing and subsequent model correlation has validated the natural frequencies and mode shapes of the FEMs. The modal survey test results provide a basis for the analysis models used for acoustic loading response test and analysis comparisons
-
ASTEC V2 severe accident integral code: Fission product modelling and validation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Cantrel, L.; Cousin, F.; Bosland, L.; Chevalier-Jabet, K.; Marchetto, C.
2014-01-01
One main goal of the severe accident integral code ASTEC V2, jointly developed since almost more than 15 years by IRSN and GRS, is to simulate the overall behaviour of fission products (FP) in a damaged nuclear facility. ASTEC applications are source term determinations, level 2 Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA2) studies including the determination of uncertainties, accident management studies and physical analyses of FP experiments to improve the understanding of the phenomenology. ASTEC is a modular code and models of a part of the phenomenology are implemented in each module: the release of FPs and structural materials from degraded fuel in the ELSA module; the transport through the reactor coolant system approximated as a sequence of control volumes in the SOPHAEROS module; and the radiochemistry inside the containment nuclear building in the IODE module. Three other modules, CPA, ISODOP and DOSE, allow respectively computing the deposition rate of aerosols inside the containment, the activities of the isotopes as a function of time, and the gaseous dose rate which is needed to model radiochemistry in the gaseous phase. In ELSA, release models are semi-mechanistic and have been validated for a wide range of experimental data, and noticeably for VERCORS experiments. For SOPHAEROS, the models can be divided into two parts: vapour phase phenomena and aerosol phase phenomena. For IODE, iodine and ruthenium chemistry are modelled based on a semi-mechanistic approach, these FPs can form some volatile species and are particularly important in terms of potential radiological consequences. The models in these 3 modules are based on a wide experimental database, resulting for a large part from international programmes, and they are considered at the state of the art of the R and D knowledge. This paper illustrates some FPs modelling capabilities of ASTEC and computed values are compared to some experimental results, which are parts of the validation matrix
-
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Suolanen, V.
1996-12-01
A modelling approach was used to predict doses from a large area deposition of 137 Cs over southern and central Finland. The assumed deposition profile and quantity were both similar to those resulting from the Chernobyl accident. In the study, doses via terrestrial and aquatic environments have been analyzed. Additionally, the intermediate results of the study, such as concentrations in various foodstuffs and the resulting body burdents, were presented. The contributions of ingestion, inhalation and external doses to the total dose were estimated in the study. The considered deposition scenario formed a modelling exercise in the IAEA coordinated research programme on Validation of Environmental Model Predictions, the VAMP project. (21 refs.)
-
Validation in the Absence of Observed Events.
Lathrop, John; Ezell, Barry
2016-04-01
This article addresses the problem of validating models in the absence of observed events, in the area of weapons of mass destruction terrorism risk assessment. We address that problem with a broadened definition of "validation," based on stepping "up" a level to considering the reason why decisionmakers seek validation, and from that basis redefine validation as testing how well the model can advise decisionmakers in terrorism risk management decisions. We develop that into two conditions: validation must be based on cues available in the observable world; and it must focus on what can be done to affect that observable world, i.e., risk management. That leads to two foci: (1) the real-world risk generating process, and (2) best use of available data. Based on our experience with nine WMD terrorism risk assessment models, we then describe three best use of available data pitfalls: SME confidence bias, lack of SME cross-referencing, and problematic initiation rates. Those two foci and three pitfalls provide a basis from which we define validation in this context in terms of four tests--Does the model: … capture initiation? … capture the sequence of events by which attack scenarios unfold? … consider unanticipated scenarios? … consider alternative causal chains? Finally, we corroborate our approach against three validation tests from the DOD literature: Is the model a correct representation of the process to be simulated? To what degree are the model results comparable to the real world? Over what range of inputs are the model results useful? © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.