WorldWideScience

Sample records for model theoretical predictions

  1. A theoretical model for predicting neutron fluxes for cyclic Neutron ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A theoretical model has been developed for prediction of thermal neutron fluxes required for cyclic irradiations of a sample to obtain the same activity previously used for the detection of any radionuclide of interest. The model is suitable for radiotracer production or for long-lived neutron activation products where the ...

  2. A Theoretical Model for the Prediction of Siphon Breaking Phenomenon

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bae, Youngmin; Kim, Young-In; Seo, Jae-Kwang; Kim, Keung Koo; Yoon, Juhyeon [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-10-15

    A siphon phenomenon or siphoning often refers to the movement of liquid from a higher elevation to a lower one through a tube in an inverted U shape (whose top is typically located above the liquid surface) under the action of gravity, and has been used in a variety of reallife applications such as a toilet bowl and a Greedy cup. However, liquid drainage due to siphoning sometimes needs to be prevented. For example, a siphon breaker, which is designed to limit the siphon effect by allowing the gas entrainment into a siphon line, is installed in order to maintain the pool water level above the reactor core when a loss of coolant accident (LOCA) occurs in an open-pool type research reactor. In this paper, we develop a theoretical model to predict the siphon breaking phenomenon. In this paper, a theoretical model to predict the siphon breaking phenomenon is developed. It is shown that the present model predicts well the fundamental features of the siphon breaking phenomenon and undershooting height.

  3. Delayed hydride cracking: theoretical model testing to predict cracking velocity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mieza, Juan I.; Vigna, Gustavo L.; Domizzi, Gladys

    2009-01-01

    Pressure tubes from Candu nuclear reactors as any other component manufactured with Zr alloys are prone to delayed hydride cracking. That is why it is important to be able to predict the cracking velocity during the component lifetime from parameters easy to be measured, such as: hydrogen concentration, mechanical and microstructural properties. Two of the theoretical models reported in literature to calculate the DHC velocity were chosen and combined, and using the appropriate variables allowed a comparison with experimental results of samples from Zr-2.5 Nb tubes with different mechanical and structural properties. In addition, velocities measured by other authors in irradiated materials could be reproduced using the model described above. (author)

  4. Predictive power of theoretical modelling of the nuclear mean field: examples of improving predictive capacities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dedes, I.; Dudek, J.

    2018-03-01

    We examine the effects of the parametric correlations on the predictive capacities of the theoretical modelling keeping in mind the nuclear structure applications. The main purpose of this work is to illustrate the method of establishing the presence and determining the form of parametric correlations within a model as well as an algorithm of elimination by substitution (see text) of parametric correlations. We examine the effects of the elimination of the parametric correlations on the stabilisation of the model predictions further and further away from the fitting zone. It follows that the choice of the physics case and the selection of the associated model are of secondary importance in this case. Under these circumstances we give priority to the relative simplicity of the underlying mathematical algorithm, provided the model is realistic. Following such criteria, we focus specifically on an important but relatively simple case of doubly magic spherical nuclei. To profit from the algorithmic simplicity we chose working with the phenomenological spherically symmetric Woods–Saxon mean-field. We employ two variants of the underlying Hamiltonian, the traditional one involving both the central and the spin orbit potential in the Woods–Saxon form and the more advanced version with the self-consistent density-dependent spin–orbit interaction. We compare the effects of eliminating of various types of correlations and discuss the improvement of the quality of predictions (‘predictive power’) under realistic parameter adjustment conditions.

  5. Rational Design of Lanthanoid Single-Ion Magnets: Predictive Power of the Theoretical Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baldoví, José J; Duan, Yan; Morales, Roser; Gaita-Ariño, Alejandro; Ruiz, Eliseo; Coronado, Eugenio

    2016-09-12

    We report two new single-ion magnets (SIMs) of a family of oxydiacetate lanthanide complexes with D3 symmetry to test the predictive capabilities of complete active space ab initio methods (CASSCF and CASPT2) and the semiempirical radial effective charge (REC) model. Comparison of the theoretical predictions of the energy levels, wave functions and magnetic properties with detailed spectroscopic and magnetic characterisation is used to critically discuss the limitations of these theoretical approaches. The need for spectroscopic information for a reliable description of the properties of lanthanide SIMs is emphasised. © 2016 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  6. Information-theoretic model selection for optimal prediction of stochastic dynamical systems from data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Darmon, David

    2018-03-01

    In the absence of mechanistic or phenomenological models of real-world systems, data-driven models become necessary. The discovery of various embedding theorems in the 1980s and 1990s motivated a powerful set of tools for analyzing deterministic dynamical systems via delay-coordinate embeddings of observations of their component states. However, in many branches of science, the condition of operational determinism is not satisfied, and stochastic models must be brought to bear. For such stochastic models, the tool set developed for delay-coordinate embedding is no longer appropriate, and a new toolkit must be developed. We present an information-theoretic criterion, the negative log-predictive likelihood, for selecting the embedding dimension for a predictively optimal data-driven model of a stochastic dynamical system. We develop a nonparametric estimator for the negative log-predictive likelihood and compare its performance to a recently proposed criterion based on active information storage. Finally, we show how the output of the model selection procedure can be used to compare candidate predictors for a stochastic system to an information-theoretic lower bound.

  7. A theoretical model for predicting the Peak Cutting Force of conical picks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gao Kuidong

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In order to predict the PCF (Peak Cutting Force of conical pick in rock cutting process, a theoretical model is established based on elastic fracture mechanics theory. The vertical fracture model of rock cutting fragment is also established based on the maximum tensile criterion. The relation between vertical fracture angle and associated parameters (cutting parameter  and ratio B of rock compressive strength to tensile strength is obtained by numerical analysis method and polynomial regression method, and the correctness of rock vertical fracture model is verified through experiments. Linear regression coefficient between the PCF of prediction and experiments is 0.81, and significance level less than 0.05 shows that the model for predicting the PCF is correct and reliable. A comparative analysis between the PCF obtained from this model and Evans model reveals that the result of this prediction model is more reliable and accurate. The results of this work could provide some guidance for studying the rock cutting theory of conical pick and designing the cutting mechanism.

  8. Theoretical models to predict the mechanical behavior of thick composite tubes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Volnei Tita

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper shows theoretical models (analytical formulations to predict the mechanical behavior of thick composite tubes and how some parameters can influence this behavior. Thus, firstly, it was developed the analytical formulations for a pressurized tube made of composite material with a single thick ply and only one lamination angle. For this case, the stress distribution and the displacement fields are investigated as function of different lamination angles and reinforcement volume fractions. The results obtained by the theoretical model are physic consistent and coherent with the literature information. After that, the previous formulations are extended in order to predict the mechanical behavior of a thick laminated tube. Both analytical formulations are implemented as a computational tool via Matlab code. The results obtained by the computational tool are compared to the finite element analyses, and the stress distribution is considered coherent. Moreover, the engineering computational tool is used to perform failure analysis, using different types of failure criteria, which identifies the damaged ply and the mode of failure.

  9. A Novel Information-Theoretic Approach for Variable Clustering and Predictive Modeling Using Dirichlet Process Mixtures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yun; Yang, Hui

    2016-12-01

    In the era of big data, there are increasing interests on clustering variables for the minimization of data redundancy and the maximization of variable relevancy. Existing clustering methods, however, depend on nontrivial assumptions about the data structure. Note that nonlinear interdependence among variables poses significant challenges on the traditional framework of predictive modeling. In the present work, we reformulate the problem of variable clustering from an information theoretic perspective that does not require the assumption of data structure for the identification of nonlinear interdependence among variables. Specifically, we propose the use of mutual information to characterize and measure nonlinear correlation structures among variables. Further, we develop Dirichlet process (DP) models to cluster variables based on the mutual-information measures among variables. Finally, orthonormalized variables in each cluster are integrated with group elastic-net model to improve the performance of predictive modeling. Both simulation and real-world case studies showed that the proposed methodology not only effectively reveals the nonlinear interdependence structures among variables but also outperforms traditional variable clustering algorithms such as hierarchical clustering.

  10. Comparison of statistical and theoretical habitat models for conservation planning: the benefit of ensemble prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    D. Todd Jones-Farrand; Todd M. Fearer; Wayne E. Thogmartin; Frank R. Thompson; Mark D. Nelson; John M. Tirpak

    2011-01-01

    Selection of a modeling approach is an important step in the conservation planning process, but little guidance is available. We compared two statistical and three theoretical habitat modeling approaches representing those currently being used for avian conservation planning at landscape and regional scales: hierarchical spatial count (HSC), classification and...

  11. Development of Simple Drying Model for Performance Prediction of Solar Dryer: Theoretical Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Singh, Shobhana; Kumar, Subodh

    2012-01-01

    of experimental drying parameters. A laboratory model of mixed-mode solar dryer system is tested with cylindrical potato samples of thickness 5 and 18 mm under simulated indoor conditions. The potato samples were dried at a constant absorbed thermal energy of 750 W/m2 and air mass flow rate of 0.011 kg......An analytical moisture diffusion model which considers the influence of external resistance to mass transfer is developed to predict thermal performance of dryer system. The moisture diffusion coefficient, Deff that is necessary to evaluate the prediction model has been determined in terms....../sec. The proposed model with computed moisture diffusion coefficient, Deff has been utilized to predict dimensionless moisture content, φ for each test condition of a given dryer design. In order to validate the model, statistical test methods such as mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RSME...

  12. A theoretical model to predict customer satisfaction in relation to service quality in selected university libraries in Sri Lanka

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chaminda Jayasundara

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available University library administrators in Sri Lanka have begun to search for alternative ways to satisfy their clientele on the basis of service quality. This article aims at providing a theoretical model to facilitate the identification of service quality attributes and domains that may be used to predict customer satisfaction from a service quality perspective. The effectiveness of existing service quality models such as LibQUAL, SERVQUAL and SERVPREF have been questioned. In that regard, this study developed a theoretical model for academic libraries in Sri Lanka based on the disconfirmation and performance-only paradigms. These perspectives were considered by researchers to be the core mechanism to develop service quality/customer satisfaction models. The attributes and domain identification of service quality was carried out with a stratified sample of 263 participants selected from postgraduate and undergraduate students and academic staff members from the faculties of Arts in four universities in Sri Lanka. The study established that responsiveness, supportiveness, building environment, collection and access, furniture and facilities, technology, Web services and service delivery were quality domains which can be used to predict customer satisfaction. The theoretical model is unique in its domain structure compared to the existing models. The model needs to be statistically tested to make it valid and parsimonious.

  13. A Theoretical Model to Predict Both Horizontal Displacement and Vertical Displacement for Electromagnetic Induction-Based Deep Displacement Sensors

    OpenAIRE

    Shentu, Nanying; Zhang, Hongjian; Li, Qing; Zhou, Hongliang; Tong, Renyuan; Li, Xiong

    2011-01-01

    Deep displacement observation is one basic means of landslide dynamic study and early warning monitoring and a key part of engineering geological investigation. In our previous work, we proposed a novel electromagnetic induction-based deep displacement sensor (I-type) to predict deep horizontal displacement and a theoretical model called equation-based equivalent loop approach (EELA) to describe its sensing characters. However in many landslide and related geological engineering cases, both h...

  14. Predicting cyberbullying perpetration in emerging adults: A theoretical test of the Barlett Gentile Cyberbullying Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barlett, Christopher; Chamberlin, Kristina; Witkower, Zachary

    2017-04-01

    The Barlett and Gentile Cyberbullying Model (BGCM) is a learning-based theory that posits the importance of positive cyberbullying attitudes predicting subsequent cyberbullying perpetration. Furthermore, the tenants of the BGCM state that cyberbullying attitude are likely to form when the online aggressor believes that the online environment allows individuals of all physical sizes to harm others and they are perceived as anonymous. Past work has tested parts of the BGCM; no study has used longitudinal methods to examine this model fully. The current study (N = 161) employed a three-wave longitudinal design to test the BGCM. Participants (age range: 18-24) completed measures of the belief that physical strength is irrelevant online and anonymity perceptions at Wave 1, cyberbullying attitudes at Wave 2, and cyberbullying perpetration at Wave 3. Results showed strong support for the BGCM: anonymity perceptions and the belief that physical attributes are irrelevant online at Wave 1 predicted Wave 2 cyberbullying attitudes, which predicted subsequent Wave 3 cyberbullying perpetration. These results support the BGCM and are the first to show empirical support for this model. Aggr. Behav. 43:147-154, 2017. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  15. Anticipation in stuttering: A theoretical model of the nature of stutter prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia-Barrera, Mauricio A; Davidow, Jason H

    2015-06-01

    The fact that some people who stutter have the ability to anticipate a stuttering moment is essential for several theories of stuttering and important for maximum effectiveness of many currently used treatment techniques. The "anticipation effect," however, is poorly understood despite much investigation into this phenomenon. In the present paper, we combine (1) behavioral evidence from the stuttering-anticipation literature, (2) speech production models, and (3) models of error detection to propose a theoretical model of anticipation. Integrating evidence from theories such as Damasio's Somatic Marker Hypothesis, Levelt's Perceptual Monitoring Theory, Guenther's The Directions Into Velocities of Articulators (DIVA) model, Postma's Covert Repair Hypothesis, among others, our central thesis is that the anticipation of a stuttering moment occurs as an outcome of the interactions between previous learning experiences (i.e., learnt associations between stuttered utterances and any self-experienced or environmental consequence) and error monitoring. Possible neurological mechanisms involved in generating conscious anticipation are also discussed, along with directions for future research. The reader will be able to: (a) describe historical theories that explain how PWS may learn to anticipate stuttering; (b) state some traditional sources of evidence of anticipation in stuttering; (c) describe how PWS may be sensitive to the detection of a stuttering; (d) state some of the neural correlates that may underlie anticipation in stuttering; and (e) describe some of the possible utilities of incorporating anticipation into stuttering interventions. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. A theoretical model to predict both horizontal displacement and vertical displacement for electromagnetic induction-based deep displacement sensors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shentu, Nanying; Zhang, Hongjian; Li, Qing; Zhou, Hongliang; Tong, Renyuan; Li, Xiong

    2012-01-01

    Deep displacement observation is one basic means of landslide dynamic study and early warning monitoring and a key part of engineering geological investigation. In our previous work, we proposed a novel electromagnetic induction-based deep displacement sensor (I-type) to predict deep horizontal displacement and a theoretical model called equation-based equivalent loop approach (EELA) to describe its sensing characters. However in many landslide and related geological engineering cases, both horizontal displacement and vertical displacement vary apparently and dynamically so both may require monitoring. In this study, a II-type deep displacement sensor is designed by revising our I-type sensor to simultaneously monitor the deep horizontal displacement and vertical displacement variations at different depths within a sliding mass. Meanwhile, a new theoretical modeling called the numerical integration-based equivalent loop approach (NIELA) has been proposed to quantitatively depict II-type sensors' mutual inductance properties with respect to predicted horizontal displacements and vertical displacements. After detailed examinations and comparative studies between measured mutual inductance voltage, NIELA-based mutual inductance and EELA-based mutual inductance, NIELA has verified to be an effective and quite accurate analytic model for characterization of II-type sensors. The NIELA model is widely applicable for II-type sensors' monitoring on all kinds of landslides and other related geohazards with satisfactory estimation accuracy and calculation efficiency.

  17. A Theoretical Model to Predict Both Horizontal Displacement and Vertical Displacement for Electromagnetic Induction-Based Deep Displacement Sensors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiong Li

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Deep displacement observation is one basic means of landslide dynamic study and early warning monitoring and a key part of engineering geological investigation. In our previous work, we proposed a novel electromagnetic induction-based deep displacement sensor (I-type to predict deep horizontal displacement and a theoretical model called equation-based equivalent loop approach (EELA to describe its sensing characters. However in many landslide and related geological engineering cases, both horizontal displacement and vertical displacement vary apparently and dynamically so both may require monitoring. In this study, a II-type deep displacement sensor is designed by revising our I-type sensor to simultaneously monitor the deep horizontal displacement and vertical displacement variations at different depths within a sliding mass. Meanwhile, a new theoretical modeling called the numerical integration-based equivalent loop approach (NIELA has been proposed to quantitatively depict II-type sensors’ mutual inductance properties with respect to predicted horizontal displacements and vertical displacements. After detailed examinations and comparative studies between measured mutual inductance voltage, NIELA-based mutual inductance and EELA-based mutual inductance, NIELA has verified to be an effective and quite accurate analytic model for characterization of II-type sensors. The NIELA model is widely applicable for II-type sensors’ monitoring on all kinds of landslides and other related geohazards with satisfactory estimation accuracy and calculation efficiency.

  18. Using Game Theoretic Models to Predict Pilot Behavior in NextGen Merging and Landing Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yildiz, Yildiray; Lee, Ritchie; Brat, Guillaume

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, we present an implementation of the Semi Network-Form Game framework to predict pilot behavior in a merging and landing scenario. In this scenario, two aircraft are approaching to a freeze horizon with approximately equal distance when they become aware of each other via an ADS-B communication link that will be available in NextGen airspace. Both pilots want to gain advantage over the other by entering the freeze horizon earlier and obtain the first place in landing. They re-adjust their speed accordingly. However, they cannot simply increase their speed to the maximum allowable values since they are concerned with safety, separation distance, effort, possibility of being vectored-off from landing and possibility of violating speed constraints. We present how to model these concerns and the rest of the system using semi network-from game framework. Using this framework, based on certain assumptions on pilot utility functions and on system configuration, we provide estimates of pilot behavior and overall system evolution in time. We also discuss the possible employment of this modeling tool for airspace design optimization. To support this discussion, we provide a case where we investigate the effect of increasing the merging point speed limit on the commanded speed distribution and on the percentage of vectored aircraft.

  19. Theoretical models to predict the transient heat transfer performance of HIFAR fuel elements under non-forced convective conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Green, W.J.

    1987-04-01

    Simple theoretical models have been developed which are suitable for predicting the thermal responses of irradiated research fuel elements of markedly different geometries when they are subjected to loss-of-coolant accident conditions. These models have been used to calculate temperature responses corresponding to various non-forced convective conditions. Comparisons between experimentally observed temperatures and calculated values have shown that a suitable value for surface thermal emissivity is 0.35; modelling of the fuel element beyond the region of the fuel plate needs to be included since these areas account for approximately 25 per cent of the thermal power dissipated; general agreement between calculated and experimental temperatures for both transient and steady-state conditions is good - the maximum discrepancy between calculated and experimental temperatures for a HIFAR Mark IV/V fuel element is ∼ 70 deg C, and for an Oak Ridge Reactor (ORR) box-type fuel element ∼ 30 deg C; and axial power distribution does not significantly affect thermal responses for the conditions investigated. Overall, the comparisons have shown that the models evolved can reproduce experimental data to a level of accuracy that provides confidence in the modelling technique and the postulated heat dissipation mechanisms, and that these models can be used to predict thermal responses of fuel elements in accident conditions that are not easily investigated experimentally

  20. A Bayesian network model for predicting aquatic toxicity mode of action using two dimensional theoretical molecular descriptors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carriger, John F. [U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Research and Development, Gulf Ecology Division, Gulf Breeze, FL, 32561 (United States); Martin, Todd M. [U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Research and Development, Sustainable Technology Division, Cincinnati, OH, 45220 (United States); Barron, Mace G., E-mail: barron.mace@epa.gov [U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Research and Development, Gulf Ecology Division, Gulf Breeze, FL, 32561 (United States)

    2016-11-15

    Highlights: • A Bayesian network was developed to classify chemical mode of action (MoA). • The network was based on the aquatic toxicity MoA for over 1000 chemicals. • A Markov blanket algorithm selected a subset of theoretical molecular descriptors. • Sensitivity analyses found influential descriptors for classifying the MoAs. • Overall precision of the Bayesian MoA classification model was 80%. - Abstract: The mode of toxic action (MoA) has been recognized as a key determinant of chemical toxicity, but development of predictive MoA classification models in aquatic toxicology has been limited. We developed a Bayesian network model to classify aquatic toxicity MoA using a recently published dataset containing over one thousand chemicals with MoA assignments for aquatic animal toxicity. Two dimensional theoretical chemical descriptors were generated for each chemical using the Toxicity Estimation Software Tool. The model was developed through augmented Markov blanket discovery from the dataset of 1098 chemicals with the MoA broad classifications as a target node. From cross validation, the overall precision for the model was 80.2%. The best precision was for the AChEI MoA (93.5%) where 257 chemicals out of 275 were correctly classified. Model precision was poorest for the reactivity MoA (48.5%) where 48 out of 99 reactive chemicals were correctly classified. Narcosis represented the largest class within the MoA dataset and had a precision and reliability of 80.0%, reflecting the global precision across all of the MoAs. False negatives for narcosis most often fell into electron transport inhibition, neurotoxicity or reactivity MoAs. False negatives for all other MoAs were most often narcosis. A probabilistic sensitivity analysis was undertaken for each MoA to examine the sensitivity to individual and multiple descriptor findings. The results show that the Markov blanket of a structurally complex dataset can simplify analysis and interpretation by

  1. Comprehensive applied mathematical modeling in the natural and engineering sciences theoretical predictions compared with data

    CERN Document Server

    Wollkind, David J

    2017-01-01

    This text demonstrates the process of comprehensive applied mathematical modeling through the introduction of various case studies.  The case studies are arranged in increasing order of complexity based on the mathematical methods required to analyze the models. The development of these methods is also included, providing a self-contained presentation. To reinforce and supplement the material introduced, original problem sets are offered involving case studies closely related to the ones presented.  With this style, the text’s perspective, scope, and completeness of the subject matter are considered unique. Having grown out of four self-contained courses taught by the authors, this text will be of use in a two-semester sequence for advanced undergraduate and beginning graduate students, requiring rudimentary knowledge of advanced calculus and differential equations, along with a basic understanding of some simple physical and biological scientific principles. .

  2. 17beta-estradiol matrixpatch removal and reapplication in postmenopausal women: theoretical predictions with an oscillating diffusion coefficient model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rohr, Uwe D; Saeger-Lorenz, Katrin

    2002-03-01

    The pharmacokinetic performance of a matrix system for transdermal beta-estradiol (E(2)) delivery after multiple consecutive dosing in postmenopausal women undergoing hormone replacement therapy was investigated. The E(2) plasma profiles determined during the third application in 16 postmenopausal women were compared with results obtained in a published clinical study using the same patch in 24 postmenopausal women without E(2) pretreatment; they were compared with a theoretical diffusion/pharmacokinetic model. A conventional theoretical model with constant model parameter (CPM) obtained from in vitro mass balance experiments in a Franz cell type set up described successfully the transdermal E(2) bioavailability parameter AUC(0-96h) (4341.9 +/- 1513.1; calculated 4250.8) and C(average) (45.0 +/- 13.2; calculated 41.2). Also, experimentally, there was no significant drop in E(2) plasma values after patch removal and reapplication; this was corroborated by calculations. Accumulation of E(2) did not occur when several patches were applied consecutively over a period of 3 weeks. Steady state was achieved following application of the first patch. However, the differences between recorded E(2) plasma profiles and theoretical results detected at specific measurement points cannot be explained by the CPM model. Experimentally obtained plasma profiles were always lower in the morning and higher in the evening than predicted on the basis of the model. Measurements of in vivo skin temperature in the postmenopausal women showed oscillating temperature profiles in the form of a cosinor function: The temperature mesor of untreated postmenopausal women was 34.8 degrees C with an acrophase at 17.0 o'clock (95% CI: 14.30-19.30) and an amplitude of +/- 0.4 degrees C (p = 0.1). During the application of the patch the average temperature next to a patch rose 0.3 degrees C, which was statistically significant (p = 0.1). In the skin under the application of the matrix patch a mesor

  3. Theoretical Predictions for Pionium Searches

    OpenAIRE

    Sander, M.; Kuhrts, C.; von Geramb, H. V.

    1996-01-01

    Characteristic properties of pionium $A_{2\\pi}$ and associated low energy s--wave cross sections $\\sigma(\\pi^0\\pi^0\\to \\pi^0\\pi^0)$, $\\sigma(\\pi^+\\pi^-\\to\\pi^0\\pi^0)$ and $\\sigma(\\pi^0\\pi^0\\to \\pi^+\\pi^-)$ are investigated with a coupled channels potential model. Some experimental results and conclusions are to be reconsidered.

  4. Do pseudo-absence selection strategies influence species distribution models and their predictions? An information-theoretic approach based on simulated data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guisan Antoine

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Multiple logistic regression is precluded from many practical applications in ecology that aim to predict the geographic distributions of species because it requires absence data, which are rarely available or are unreliable. In order to use multiple logistic regression, many studies have simulated "pseudo-absences" through a number of strategies, but it is unknown how the choice of strategy influences models and their geographic predictions of species. In this paper we evaluate the effect of several prevailing pseudo-absence strategies on the predictions of the geographic distribution of a virtual species whose "true" distribution and relationship to three environmental predictors was predefined. We evaluated the effect of using a real absences b pseudo-absences selected randomly from the background and c two-step approaches: pseudo-absences selected from low suitability areas predicted by either Ecological Niche Factor Analysis: (ENFA or BIOCLIM. We compared how the choice of pseudo-absence strategy affected model fit, predictive power, and information-theoretic model selection results. Results Models built with true absences had the best predictive power, best discriminatory power, and the "true" model (the one that contained the correct predictors was supported by the data according to AIC, as expected. Models based on random pseudo-absences had among the lowest fit, but yielded the second highest AUC value (0.97, and the "true" model was also supported by the data. Models based on two-step approaches had intermediate fit, the lowest predictive power, and the "true" model was not supported by the data. Conclusion If ecologists wish to build parsimonious GLM models that will allow them to make robust predictions, a reasonable approach is to use a large number of randomly selected pseudo-absences, and perform model selection based on an information theoretic approach. However, the resulting models can be expected to have

  5. Theoretical model for laser ablation outcome predictions in brain: calibration and validation on clinical MR thermometry images.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fahrenholtz, Samuel John; Madankan, Reza; Danish, Shabbar; Hazle, John D; Stafford, R Jason; Fuentes, David

    2018-02-01

    Neurosurgical laser ablation is experiencing a renaissance. Computational tools for ablation planning aim to further improve the intervention. Here, global optimisation and inverse problems are demonstrated to train a model that predicts maximum laser ablation extent. A closed-form steady state model is trained on and then subsequently compared to N = 20 retrospective clinical MR thermometry datasets. Dice similarity coefficient (DSC) is calculated to provide a measure of region overlap between the 57 °C isotherms of the thermometry data and the model-predicted ablation regions; 57 °C is a tissue death surrogate at thermal steady state. A global optimisation scheme samples the dominant model parameter sensitivities, blood perfusion (ω) and optical parameter (μ eff ) values, throughout a parameter space totalling 11 440 value-pairs. This represents a lookup table of μ eff -ω pairs with the corresponding DSC value for each patient dataset. The μ eff -ω pair with the maximum DSC calibrates the model parameters, maximising predictive value for each patient. Finally, leave-one-out cross-validation with global optimisation information trains the model on the entire clinical dataset, and compares against the model naïvely using literature values for ω and μ eff . When using naïve literature values, the model's mean DSC is 0.67 whereas the calibrated model produces 0.82 during cross-validation, an improvement of 0.15 in overlap with the patient data. The 95% confidence interval of the mean difference is 0.083-0.23 (p < 0.001). During cross-validation, the calibrated model is superior to the naïve model as measured by DSC, with +22% mean prediction accuracy. Calibration empowers a relatively simple model to become more predictive.

  6. Theoretical study on modeling and prediction of optical rotation for biodegradable polymers containing α-amino acids using QSAR approaches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mallakpour, Shadpour; Hatami, Mehdi; Golmohammadi, Hassan

    2011-07-01

    The main purpose of the present study was modeling and prediction of the optical rotation ([M](D)) of some biodegradable polymers containing α-amino acids using quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) approaches. In order to attain this goal, the optical rotation of a collection of 53 polymers was selected as a data set. The data set was randomly divided into three sections, training, test and external validation sets. By using dragon software, various descriptors were calculated for all molecules in the data set. The important descriptors were selected applying genetic algorithm-partial least squares (GA-PLS) method. Then an artificial neural network (ANN) was written with MATLAB 7 and used these descriptors as inputs and its output was optical rotation of desired polymers. Then, the constructed network was used for the prediction of ([M](D)) values of validation set. The squared correlation coefficient R² values of the ANN model for the training, test and validation sets were 0.998, 0.996 and 0.996 respectively. The results showed the ability of developed ANN to predict optical rotation of various polymers.

  7. Franchise Business Model: Theoretical Insights

    OpenAIRE

    Levickaitė, Rasa; Reimeris, Ramojus

    2010-01-01

    The article is based on literature review, theoretical insights, and deals with the topic of franchise business model. The objective of the paper is to analyse peculiarities of franchise business model and its developing conditions in Lithuania. The aim of the paper is to make an overview on franchise business model and its environment in Lithuanian business context. The overview is based on international and local theoretical insights. In terms of practical meaning, this article should be re...

  8. Theoretical predictions for alpha particle spectroscopic strengths

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Draayer, J.P.

    1975-01-01

    Multinucleon transfers induced in heavy-ion reactions of the type ( 6 Li,d) furnish a selective probe with which to study the interplay between rotational and clustering phenomena so characteristic of the structure of the light sd-shell nuclei. For these nuclei, theoretical predictions for inter-band as well as intra-band transfer strengths can be made using recently tabulated results for angular momentum dependent SU 3 inclusion R 3 relative spectroscopic strengths and angular momentum independent SU 6 inclusion SU 3 coefficients of fractional parentage. The pure SU 3 (oscillator)-SU 4 (supermultiplet) symmetry limit agrees well with results obtained using available eigenfunctions determined in large shell model calculations. In particular, the scalar nature of a transferred ''alpha''-cluster insures that the effect of spatial symmetry admixtures in the initial and final states of the target and residual nuclei are minimized. Sum rule quantities provide a measure of the probable effects of symmetry breaking. Strength variations within a band are expected; transfers to core excited states are often favored. Results extracted from exact finite range DWBA analyses of ( 6 Li,d) data on 16 , 18 O, 20 , 21 , 22 Ne, 24 , 25 Mg show some anomalies in our understanding of the structure and/or reaction mechanisms. (18 figures) (U.S.)

  9. The improvement of a simple theoretical model for the prediction of the sound insulation of double leaf walls.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davy, John L

    2010-02-01

    This paper presents a revised theory for predicting the sound insulation of double leaf cavity walls that removes an approximation, which is usually made when deriving the sound insulation of a double leaf cavity wall above the critical frequencies of the wall leaves due to the airborne transmission across the wall cavity. This revised theory is also used as a correction below the critical frequencies of the wall leaves instead of a correction due to Sewell [(1970). J. Sound Vib. 12, 21-32]. It is found necessary to include the "stud" borne transmission of the window frames when modeling wide air gap double glazed windows. A minimum value of stud transmission is introduced for use with resilient connections such as steel studs. Empirical equations are derived for predicting the effective sound absorption coefficient of wall cavities without sound absorbing material. The theory is compared with experimental results for double glazed windows and gypsum plasterboard cavity walls with and without sound absorbing material in their cavities. The overall mean, standard deviation, maximum, and minimum of the differences between experiment and theory are -0.6 dB, 3.1 dB, 10.9 dB at 1250 Hz, and -14.9 dB at 160 Hz, respectively.

  10. Theoretical models for supernovae

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Woosley, S.E.; Weaver, T.A.

    1981-01-01

    The results of recent numerical simulations of supernova explosions are presented and a variety of topics discussed. Particular emphasis is given to (i) the nucleosynthesis expected from intermediate mass (10sub solar less than or equal to M less than or equal to 100 Msub solar) Type II supernovae and detonating white dwarf models for Type I supernovae, (ii) a realistic estimate of the γ-line fluxes expected from this nucleosynthesis, (iii) the continued evolution, in one and two dimensions, of intermediate mass stars wherein iron core collapse does not lead to a strong, mass-ejecting shock wave, and (iv) the evolution and explosion of vary massive stars M greater than or equal to 100 Msub solar of both Population I and III. In one dimension, nuclear burning following a failed core bounce does not appear likely to lead to a supernova explosion although, in two dimensions, a combination of rotation and nuclear burning may do so. Near solar proportions of elements from neon to calcium and very brilliant optical displays may be created by hypernovae, the explosions of stars in the mass range 100 M/sub solar/ to 300 M/sub solar/. Above approx. 300 M/sub solar/ a black hole is created by stellar collapse following carbon ignition. Still more massive stars may be copious producers of 4 He and 14 N prior to their collapse on the pair instability

  11. An empirical/theoretical model with dimensionless numbers to predict the performance of electrodialysis systems on the basis of operating conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karimi, Leila; Ghassemi, Abbas

    2016-07-01

    Among the different technologies developed for desalination, the electrodialysis/electrodialysis reversal (ED/EDR) process is one of the most promising for treating brackish water with low salinity when there is high risk of scaling. Multiple researchers have investigated ED/EDR to optimize the process, determine the effects of operating parameters, and develop theoretical/empirical models. Previously published empirical/theoretical models have evaluated the effect of the hydraulic conditions of the ED/EDR on the limiting current density using dimensionless numbers. The reason for previous studies' emphasis on limiting current density is twofold: 1) to maximize ion removal, most ED/EDR systems are operated close to limiting current conditions if there is not a scaling potential in the concentrate chamber due to a high concentration of less-soluble salts; and 2) for modeling the ED/EDR system with dimensionless numbers, it is more accurate and convenient to use limiting current density, where the boundary layer's characteristics are known at constant electrical conditions. To improve knowledge of ED/EDR systems, ED/EDR models should be also developed for the Ohmic region, where operation reduces energy consumption, facilitates targeted ion removal, and prolongs membrane life compared to limiting current conditions. In this paper, theoretical/empirical models were developed for ED/EDR performance in a wide range of operating conditions. The presented ion removal and selectivity models were developed for the removal of monovalent ions and divalent ions utilizing the dominant dimensionless numbers obtained from laboratory scale electrodialysis experiments. At any system scale, these models can predict ED/EDR performance in terms of monovalent and divalent ion removal. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Theoretical analysis of biogas potential prediction from agricultural waste

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Achinas, Spyridon; Euverink, Gerrit Jan Willem

    2016-01-01

    A simplistic theoretical study of anaerobic digestion in order to predict the biogas amount of agricultural waste is proposed. A wide variety of models exist, but most of them rely on algebraic equations instead of biochemical equations and require many input parameters as well as computation time.

  13. Elastic anisotropy of layered rocks: Ultrasonic measurements of plagioclase-biotite-muscovite (sillimanite) gneiss versus texture-based theoretical predictions (effective media modeling)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivankina, T. I.; Zel, I. Yu.; Lokajicek, T.; Kern, H.; Lobanov, K. V.; Zharikov, A. V.

    2017-08-01

    In this paper we present experimental and theoretical studies on a highly anisotropic layered rock sample characterized by alternating layers of biotite and muscovite (retrogressed from sillimanite) and plagioclase and quartz, respectively. We applied two different experimental methods to determine seismic anisotropy at pressures up to 400 MPa: (1) measurement of P- and S-wave phase velocities on a cube in three foliation-related orthogonal directions and (2) measurement of P-wave group velocities on a sphere in 132 directions The combination of the spatial distribution of P-wave velocities on the sphere (converted to phase velocities) with S-wave velocities of three orthogonal structural directions on the cube made it possible to calculate the bulk elastic moduli of the anisotropic rock sample. On the basis of the crystallographic preferred orientations (CPOs) of major minerals obtained by time-of-flight neutron diffraction, effective media modeling was performed using different inclusion methods and averaging procedures. The implementation of a nonlinear approximation of the P-wave velocity-pressure relation was applied to estimate the mineral matrix properties and the orientation distribution of microcracks. Comparison of theoretical calculations of elastic properties of the mineral matrix with those derived from the nonlinear approximation showed discrepancies in elastic moduli and P-wave velocities of about 10%. The observed discrepancies between the effective media modeling and ultrasonic velocity data are a consequence of the inhomogeneous structure of the sample and inability to perform long-wave approximation. Furthermore, small differences between elastic moduli predicted by the different theoretical models, including specific fabric characteristics such as crystallographic texture, grain shape and layering were observed. It is shown that the bulk elastic anisotropy of the sample is basically controlled by the CPO of biotite and muscovite and their volume

  14. A Game Theoretic Approach to Cyber Attack Prediction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Peng Liu

    2005-11-28

    The area investigated by this project is cyber attack prediction. With a focus on correlation-based prediction, current attack prediction methodologies overlook the strategic nature of cyber attack-defense scenarios. As a result, current cyber attack prediction methodologies are very limited in predicting strategic behaviors of attackers in enforcing nontrivial cyber attacks such as DDoS attacks, and may result in low accuracy in correlation-based predictions. This project develops a game theoretic framework for cyber attack prediction, where an automatic game-theory-based attack prediction method is proposed. Being able to quantitatively predict the likelihood of (sequences of) attack actions, our attack prediction methodology can predict fine-grained strategic behaviors of attackers and may greatly improve the accuracy of correlation-based prediction. To our best knowledge, this project develops the first comprehensive framework for incentive-based modeling and inference of attack intent, objectives, and strategies; and this project develops the first method that can predict fine-grained strategic behaviors of attackers. The significance of this research and the benefit to the public can be demonstrated to certain extent by (a) the severe threat of cyber attacks to the critical infrastructures of the nation, including many infrastructures overseen by the Department of Energy, (b) the importance of cyber security to critical infrastructure protection, and (c) the importance of cyber attack prediction to achieving cyber security.

  15. Experimental and Theoretical Investigations to Improve the Predictive Power of Nuclear Reaction Models in Spallation Neutron Production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nuenighoff, K.; Filges, D.; Goldenbaum, F.; Neef, R.D.; Nuenighoff, K.; Paul, N.; Schaal, H.; Sterzenbach, G.; Wohlmuther, M.; Enke, M.; Herbach, C.M.; Hilscher, D.; Jahnke, U.; Tishchenko, V.; Galin, J.; Letourneau, A.; Lott, B.; Peghaire, A.; Pienkowski, L.; Schroeder, U.; Toke, J.; Tietze, A.

    2002-01-01

    In order to design the target station of the European Spallation Source ESS measurements of the neutron production in possible target materials like Pb, Hg and W were performed. The aim of these measurements was to validate the simulation codes and to proof their predictive power. The NESSI experiment allows for the comparison of neutron multiplicity distributions between experiment and simulation, which is a much more sensitive method than only comparing the mean neutron multiplicities. An agreement of better than 10 % was achieved. Various target geometries with diameters up to 15 cm and lengths up to 35 cm over a range from 0.4 till 2.5 GeV incident proton energy were studied. The Monte-Carlo Simulations were performed with the HERMES, LCS, and MCNPX code system. (authors)

  16. Theoretical analysis of biogas potential prediction from agricultural waste

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Spyridon Achinas

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available A simplistic theoretical study of anaerobic digestion in order to predict the biogas amount of agricultural waste is proposed. A wide variety of models exist, but most of them rely on algebraic equations instead of biochemical equations and require many input parameters as well as computation time. This work provides a simplified model that predicts the biogas amount produced and could be applied for agricultural energy feasibility studies for instance dimensioning bioreactors digesting animal waste slurries. The method can be used for other feedstock materials and repeated for other similar applications, in an effort to expand anaerobic digestion systems as a clean energy source.

  17. Mass-loss Rates from Coronal Mass Ejections: A Predictive Theoretical Model for Solar-type Stars

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cranmer, Steven R. [Department of Astrophysical and Planetary Sciences, Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309 (United States)

    2017-05-10

    Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are eruptive events that cause a solar-type star to shed mass and magnetic flux. CMEs tend to occur together with flares, radio storms, and bursts of energetic particles. On the Sun, CME-related mass loss is roughly an order of magnitude less intense than that of the background solar wind. However, on other types of stars, CMEs have been proposed to carry away much more mass and energy than the time-steady wind. Earlier papers have used observed correlations between solar CMEs and flare energies, in combination with stellar flare observations, to estimate stellar CME rates. This paper sidesteps flares and attempts to calibrate a more fundamental correlation between surface-averaged magnetic fluxes and CME properties. For the Sun, there exists a power-law relationship between the magnetic filling factor and the CME kinetic energy flux, and it is generalized for use on other stars. An example prediction of the time evolution of wind/CME mass-loss rates for a solar-mass star is given. A key result is that for ages younger than about 1 Gyr (i.e., activity levels only slightly higher than the present-day Sun), the CME mass loss exceeds that of the time-steady wind. At younger ages, CMEs carry 10–100 times more mass than the wind, and such high rates may be powerful enough to dispel circumstellar disks and affect the habitability of nearby planets. The cumulative CME mass lost by the young Sun may have been as much as 1% of a solar mass.

  18. THEORETICAL ASPECTS AND NUMERICAL MODELLING FOR LONG TERM PREDICTION OF ABL AND WIND DISTRIBUTION IN POWER FARM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    RADULESCU V.

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The paper is structured in seven parts, the last for few conclusions and finally some references. It is based on concrete measurements and observation during around 2 years. First is presented an introduction of the actual situation. In part two are mentioned the methods and hypotheses in evaluation of wind velocity distribution in boundary layers for atmospheric air, taking into account the roughness of ground surfaces. It is mentioned a concrete area, south part of Moldova. In third part is presented a solution for the geodetic model and finally are selected the altimetry solution. In chapter four is determined the influence of air density, temperature and pressure on wind turbine functioning. In the next chapters are presented the numerical model with special boundary conditions, taking into account different value of roughness and finally the obtained results. It is also estimated velocity variation during day-night. Finally is presented the vertical distribution of horizontal wind velocity for a wind farm, obviously important due the power of turbine (around 3 MW each one. Some conclusions and references are also mentioned.

  19. Theoretical predictions for vehicular headways and their clusters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krbálek, Milan

    2013-11-01

    This paper presents a derivation of analytical predictions for steady-state distributions of netto time gaps among clusters of vehicles moving inside a traffic stream. Using the thermodynamic socio-physical traffic model with short-ranged repulsion between particles (originally introduced in Krbálek and Helbing 2004 Physica A 333 370) we first derive the time-clearance distribution in the model and confront it with relation to the theoretical criteria for the acceptability of analytical clearance distributions. Consecutively, the approximating statistical distributions for the so-called time multi-clearances are calculated by means of the theory of functional convolutions. Moreover, all the theoretical surmises used during the above-mentioned calculations are evaluated by the statistical analysis of traffic data. The mathematical predictions acquired in this paper are thoroughly compared with relevant empirical quantities and discussed in the context of traffic theory.

  20. M-theoretic matrix models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grassi, Alba; Mariño, Marcos

    2015-02-01

    Some matrix models admit, on top of the usual 't Hooft expansion, an M-theory-like expansion, i.e. an expansion at large N but where the rest of the parameters are fixed, instead of scaling with N . These models, which we call M-theoretic matrix models, appear in the localization of Chern-Simons-matter theories, and also in two-dimensional statistical physics. Generically, their partition function receives non-perturbative corrections which are not captured by the 't Hooft expansion. In this paper, we discuss general aspects of these type of matrix integrals and we analyze in detail two different examples. The first one is the matrix model computing the partition function of supersymmetric Yang-Mills theory in three dimensions with one adjoint hypermultiplet and N f fundamentals, which has a conjectured M-theory dual, and which we call the N f matrix model. The second one, which we call the polymer matrix model, computes form factors of the 2d Ising model and is related to the physics of 2d polymers. In both cases we determine their exact planar limit. In the N f matrix model, the planar free energy reproduces the expected behavior of the M-theory dual. We also study their M-theory expansion by using Fermi gas techniques, and we find non-perturbative corrections to the 't Hooft expansion.

  1. Mesoscopic structure prediction of nanoparticle assembly and coassembly: Theoretical foundation

    KAUST Repository

    Hur, Kahyun

    2010-01-01

    In this work, we present a theoretical framework that unifies polymer field theory and density functional theory in order to efficiently predict ordered nanostructure formation of systems having considerable complexity in terms of molecular structures and interactions. We validate our approach by comparing its predictions with previous simulation results for model systems. We illustrate the flexibility of our approach by applying it to hybrid systems composed of block copolymers and ligand coated nanoparticles. We expect that our approach will enable the treatment of multicomponent self-assembly with a level of molecular complexity that approaches experimental systems. © 2010 American Institute of Physics.

  2. Experimental verification of theoretical predictions concerning the optimum defibrillation waveform.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malkin, Robert A; Jackson, Stephanie R; Nguyen, Jennifer; Yang, Zhao; Guan, Dongxu

    2006-08-01

    The efficacy of electrical therapy at terminating ventricular fibrillation is highly dependent on the waveform used. We present experimental results which test one theory for defibrillation waveform dependence. Forty-four defibrillation waveforms (22 monophasic, 22 biphasic) were designed according to the theoretical construct of Fishier (2000). The waveforms were then tested on 67 male guinea pigs (46 for monophasic, 21 for biphasic waveforms) using a custom designed defibrillator and 12-mm subcutaneous disc electrodes. There was considerable agreement between the theoretical and experimental results. For example, as predicted, the ascending exponential waveform of 1 ms proved to be the most effective (86.4%) monophasic waveform, where efficacy is the number of successful shocks divided by the total number delivered. In addition, the efficacy decrease with duration increase was accurately predicted by the model for monophasic waveforms. For biphasic waveforms, as predicted by the model, when the first phase was optimized, an increase in second phase duration caused an increase in defibrillation efficacy (10 of 11 tested duration pairs). We conclude that the theoretical framework adequately explains the mechanism by which the defibrillation waveform affects efficacy for monophasic waveforms and, in at least one aspect, biphasic waveforms.

  3. Theoretical prediction method of subcooled flow boiling CHF

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kwon, Young Min; Chang, Soon Heung [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Taejon (Korea, Republic of)

    1998-12-31

    A theoretical critical heat flux (CHF ) model, based on lateral bubble coalescence on the heated wall, is proposed to predict the subcooled flow boiling CHF in a uniformly heated vertical tube. The model is based on the concept that a single layer of bubbles contacted to the heated wall prevents a bulk liquid from reaching the wall at near CHF condition. Comparisons between the model predictions and experimental data result in satisfactory agreement within less than 9.73% root-mean-square error by the appropriate choice of the critical void fraction in the bubbly layer. The present model shows comparable performance with the CHF look-up table of Groeneveld et al.. 28 refs., 11 figs., 1 tab. (Author)

  4. Theoretical models of neutron emission in fission

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Madland, D.G.

    1992-01-01

    A brief survey of theoretical representations of two of the observables in neutron emission in fission is given, namely, the prompt fission neutron spectrum N(E) and the average prompt neutron multiplicity bar v p . Early representations of the two observables are presented and their deficiencies are discussed. This is followed by summaries and examples of recent theoretical models for the calculation of these quantities. Emphasis is placed upon the predictability and accuracy of the new models. In particular, the dependencies of N(E) and bar v p upon the fissioning nucleus and its excitation energy are treated. Recent work in the calculation of the prompt fission neutron spectrum matrix N(E,E n ), where E n is the energy of the neutron inducing fission, is then discussed. Concluding remarks address the current status of our ability to calculate these observables with confidence, the direction of future theoretical efforts, and limititations to current and future calculations. Finally, recommendations are presented as to which model should be used currently and which model should be pursued in future efforts

  5. Large Hadron Collider (LHC) phenomenology, operational challenges and theoretical predictions

    CERN Document Server

    Gilles, Abelin R

    2013-01-01

    The Large Hadron Collider (LHC) is the highest-energy particle collider ever constructed and is considered "one of the great engineering milestones of mankind." It was built by the European Organization for Nuclear Research (CERN) from 1998 to 2008, with the aim of allowing physicists to test the predictions of different theories of particle physics and high-energy physics, and particularly prove or disprove the existence of the theorized Higgs boson and of the large family of new particles predicted by supersymmetric theories. In this book, the authors study the phenomenology, operational challenges and theoretical predictions of LHC. Topics discussed include neutral and charged black hole remnants at the LHC; the modified statistics approach for the thermodynamical model of multiparticle production; and astroparticle physics and cosmology in the LHC era.

  6. Theoretical models of DNA flexibility

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Dršata, Tomáš; Lankaš, Filip

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 3, č. 4 (2013), s. 355-363 ISSN 1759-0876 Institutional support: RVO:61388963 Keywords : molecular dynamics simulations * base pair level * indirect readout Subject RIV: CF - Physical ; Theoretical Chemistry Impact factor: 9.041, year: 2013

  7. Prediction and Theoretical Investigation of the Morphology of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    band interaction plays a critical role in the plate-like morphology of erythromycin dihydrate, which is in accordance with the theory of Periodic Bond Chain (PBC). Keywords: Erythromycin dihydrate, Morphology prediction, Theoretical investigation, ...

  8. Parameters and error of a theoretical model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moeller, P.; Nix, J.R.; Swiatecki, W.

    1986-09-01

    We propose a definition for the error of a theoretical model of the type whose parameters are determined from adjustment to experimental data. By applying a standard statistical method, the maximum-likelihoodlmethod, we derive expressions for both the parameters of the theoretical model and its error. We investigate the derived equations by solving them for simulated experimental and theoretical quantities generated by use of random number generators. 2 refs., 4 tabs

  9. Physics of mind: Experimental confirmations of theoretical predictions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schoeller, Félix; Perlovsky, Leonid; Arseniev, Dmitry

    2018-02-02

    What is common among Newtonian mechanics, statistical physics, thermodynamics, quantum physics, the theory of relativity, astrophysics and the theory of superstrings? All these areas of physics have in common a methodology, which is discussed in the first few lines of the review. Is a physics of the mind possible? Is it possible to describe how a mind adapts in real time to changes in the physical world through a theory based on a few basic laws? From perception and elementary cognition to emotions and abstract ideas allowing high-level cognition and executive functioning, at nearly all levels of study, the mind shows variability and uncertainties. Is it possible to turn psychology and neuroscience into so-called "hard" sciences? This review discusses several established first principles for the description of mind and their mathematical formulations. A mathematical model of mind is derived from these principles. This model includes mechanisms of instincts, emotions, behavior, cognition, concepts, language, intuitions, and imagination. We clarify fundamental notions such as the opposition between the conscious and the unconscious, the knowledge instinct and aesthetic emotions, as well as humans' universal abilities for symbols and meaning. In particular, the review discusses in length evolutionary and cognitive functions of aesthetic emotions and musical emotions. Several theoretical predictions are derived from the model, some of which have been experimentally confirmed. These empirical results are summarized and we introduce new theoretical developments. Several unsolved theoretical problems are proposed, as well as new experimental challenges for future research. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  10. Predicting Self-Management Behaviors in Familial Hypercholesterolemia Using an Integrated Theoretical Model: the Impact of Beliefs About Illnesses and Beliefs About Behaviors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hagger, Martin S; Hardcastle, Sarah J; Hingley, Catherine; Strickland, Ella; Pang, Jing; Watts, Gerald F

    2016-06-01

    Patients with familial hypercholesterolemia (FH) are at markedly increased risk of coronary artery disease. Regular participation in three self-management behaviors, physical activity, healthy eating, and adherence to medication, can significantly reduce this risk in FH patients. We aimed to predict intentions to engage in these self-management behaviors in FH patients using a multi-theory, integrated model that makes the distinction between beliefs about illness and beliefs about self-management behaviors. Using a cross-sectional, correlational design, patients (N = 110) diagnosed with FH from a clinic in Perth, Western Australia, self-completed a questionnaire that measured constructs from three health behavior theories: the common sense model of illness representations (serious consequences, timeline, personal control, treatment control, illness coherence, emotional representations); theory of planned behavior (attitudes, subjective norms, perceived behavioral control); and social cognitive theory (self-efficacy). Structural equation models for each self-management behavior revealed consistent and statistically significant effects of attitudes on intentions across the three behaviors. Subjective norms predicted intentions for health eating only and self-efficacy predicted intentions for physical activity only. There were no effects for the perceived behavioral control and common sense model constructs in any model. Attitudes feature prominently in determining intentions to engage in self-management behaviors in FH patients. The prominence of these attitudinal beliefs about self-management behaviors, as opposed to illness beliefs, suggest that addressing these beliefs may be a priority in the management of FH.

  11. Theoretical Models for Orthogonal Cutting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    De Chiffre, Leonardo

    This review of simple models for orthogonal cutting was extracted from: “L. De Chiffre: Metal Cutting Mechanics and Applications, D.Sc. Thesis, Technical University of Denmark, 1990.”......This review of simple models for orthogonal cutting was extracted from: “L. De Chiffre: Metal Cutting Mechanics and Applications, D.Sc. Thesis, Technical University of Denmark, 1990.”...

  12. Test of theoretical models for ultrafast heterogeneous electron ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Administrator

    with the predictions of different theoretical models for light-induced ultrafast heterogeneous electron transfer (HET). ... theory model based on molecular dynamics simulations for the vibrational modes were also considered. Based on the known vibrational .... Pseudo 3D map of a 2PPE measurement with. Pe' achored via the ...

  13. Desublimation process: verification and applications of a theoretical model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eby, R.S.

    1979-01-01

    A theoretical model simulating the simultaneous heat and mass transfer which takes place during the desublimation of a gas to a solid is presented. Desublimer column loading profiles to experimentally verify the model were obtained using a gamma scintillation technique. The data indicate that, if the physical parameters of the desublimed frost material are known, the model can accurately predict the desublimation phenomenon. The usefulness of the model in different engineering applications is also addressed

  14. Confirmation of theoretical colour predictions for layering dental composite materials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mikhail, Sarah S; Johnston, William M

    2014-04-01

    The aim of this study is to confirm the theoretical colour predictions for single and double layers of dental composite materials on an opaque backing. Single and double layers of composite resins were fabricated, placed in optical contact with a grey backing and measured for spectral radiance. The spectral reflectance and colour were directly determined. Absorption and scattering coefficients as previously reported, the measured thickness of the single layers and the effective reflectance of the grey backing were utilized to theoretically predict the reflectance of the single layer using corrected Kubelka-Munk reflectance theory. For double layers the predicted effective reflectance of the single layer was used as the reflectance of the backing of the second layer and the thickness of the second layer was used to predict the reflectance of the double layer. Colour differences, using both the CIELAB and CIEDE2000 formulae, measured the discrepancy between each directly determined colour and its corresponding theoretical colour. The colour difference discrepancies generally ranged around the perceptibility threshold but were consistently below the respective acceptability threshold. This theory can predict the colour of layers of composite resin within acceptability limits and generally also within perceptibility limits. This theory could therefore be incorporated into computer-based optical measuring instruments that can automate the shade selections for layers of a more opaque first layer under a more translucent second layer for those clinical situations where an underlying background colour and a desirable final colour can be measured. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Predicting Child Abuse Potential: An Empirical Investigation of Two Theoretical Frameworks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Begle, Angela Moreland; Dumas, Jean E.; Hanson, Rochelle F.

    2010-01-01

    This study investigated two theoretical risk models predicting child maltreatment potential: (a) Belsky's (1993) developmental-ecological model and (b) the cumulative risk model in a sample of 610 caregivers (49% African American, 46% European American; 53% single) with a child between 3 and 6 years old. Results extend the literature by using a…

  16. Shape of the self-concept clarity change during group psychotherapy predicts the outcome: an empirical validation of the theoretical model of the self-concept change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Styła, Rafał

    2015-01-01

    Self-Concept Clarity (SCC) describes the extent to which the schemas of the self are internally integrated, well defined, and temporally stable. This article presents a theoretical model that describes how different shapes of SCC change (especially stable increase and "V" shape) observed in the course of psychotherapy are related to the therapy outcome. Linking the concept of Jean Piaget and the dynamic systems theory, the study postulates that a stable SCC increase is needed for the participants with a rather healthy personality structure, while SCC change characterized by a "V" shape or fluctuations is optimal for more disturbed patients. Correlational study in a naturalistic setting with repeated measurements (M = 5.8) was conducted on the sample of 85 patients diagnosed with neurosis and personality disorders receiving intensive eclectic group psychotherapy under routine inpatient conditions. Participants filled in the Self-Concept Clarity Scale (SCCS), Symptoms' Questionnaire KS-II, and Neurotic Personality Questionnaire KON-2006 at the beginning and at the end of the course of psychotherapy. The SCCS was also administered every 2 weeks during psychotherapy. As hypothesized, among the relatively healthiest group of patients the stable SCC increase was related to positive treatment outcome, while more disturbed patients benefited from the fluctuations and "V" shape of SCC change. The findings support the idea that for different personality dispositions either a monotonic increase or transient destabilization of SCC is a sign of a good treatment prognosis.

  17. Shape of the self-concept clarity change during group psychotherapy predicts the outcome: an empirical validation of the theoretical model of the self-concept change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Styła, Rafał

    2015-01-01

    Background: Self-Concept Clarity (SCC) describes the extent to which the schemas of the self are internally integrated, well defined, and temporally stable. This article presents a theoretical model that describes how different shapes of SCC change (especially stable increase and “V” shape) observed in the course of psychotherapy are related to the therapy outcome. Linking the concept of Jean Piaget and the dynamic systems theory, the study postulates that a stable SCC increase is needed for the participants with a rather healthy personality structure, while SCC change characterized by a “V” shape or fluctuations is optimal for more disturbed patients. Method: Correlational study in a naturalistic setting with repeated measurements (M = 5.8) was conducted on the sample of 85 patients diagnosed with neurosis and personality disorders receiving intensive eclectic group psychotherapy under routine inpatient conditions. Participants filled in the Self-Concept Clarity Scale (SCCS), Symptoms' Questionnaire KS-II, and Neurotic Personality Questionnaire KON-2006 at the beginning and at the end of the course of psychotherapy. The SCCS was also administered every 2 weeks during psychotherapy. Results: As hypothesized, among the relatively healthiest group of patients the stable SCC increase was related to positive treatment outcome, while more disturbed patients benefited from the fluctuations and “V” shape of SCC change. Conclusions: The findings support the idea that for different personality dispositions either a monotonic increase or transient destabilization of SCC is a sign of a good treatment prognosis. PMID:26579001

  18. Information-Theoretic Perspectives on Geophysical Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nearing, Grey

    2016-04-01

    metrics) (Csiszár, 1972). Fundamentally, models can only translate existing information - they cannot create information. That is, all of the information about any future (or otherwise unobserved event) is contained in the initial and boundary conditions of whatever model we will use to predict that phenomena (Gong et al., 2013). A model simply tells us how to process the available information in a way that is as close to isomorphic with how the system itself processes information. As such, models can only lose or corrupt information because at best a model can only perfectly extract all information contained in its input data; this is a theorem called the Data Processing Inequality (Cover and Thomas, 1991), and this perspective represents a purely ontological treatment of information in models. In practice, however, models provide information to scientists about how to translate information, and in this epistemic sense, models can provide positive quantities of information. During engineering-type efforts, where our goal is fundamentally to make predictions, we would measure the (possibly positive) net epistemic information from some hypothesized model relative to some uninformative prior, or relative to some competing model(s), to measure how much information we gain by running the model (Nearing and Gupta, 2015). True science-focused efforts, however, where the intent is learning rather than prediction, cannot rely on this type of comparative hypothesis testing. We therefore encourage scientists to take the first perspective outlined above and to attempt to measure the ontological information that is lost by their models, rather than the epistemological information that is gained from their models. This represents a radical departure from how scientists usually approach the problem of model evaluation. It turns out that it is possible to approximate the latter objective in practice. We are aware of no existing efforts to this effect in either the philosophy or

  19. A Set Theoretical Approach to Maturity Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lasrado, Lester; Vatrapu, Ravi; Andersen, Kim Normann

    2016-01-01

    of it application on a social media maturity data-set. Specifically, we employ Necessary Condition Analysis (NCA) to identify maturity stage boundaries as necessary conditions and Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) to arrive at multiple configurations that can be equally effective in progressing to higher......Maturity Model research in IS has been criticized for the lack of theoretical grounding, methodological rigor, empirical validations, and ignorance of multiple and non-linear paths to maturity. To address these criticisms, this paper proposes a novel set-theoretical approach to maturity models...... characterized by equifinality, multiple conjunctural causation, and case diversity. We prescribe methodological guidelines consisting of a six-step procedure to systematically apply set theoretic methods to conceptualize, develop, and empirically derive maturity models and provide a demonstration...

  20. Modeling scientific: some theoretical and methodological considerations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Tamayo-Roca

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available At present widespread use of models as an auxiliary system to penetrate the essence of phenomena related to all areas of cognitive and transforming activity of man, covering as diverse as human sciences fields. In the field of education use it is becoming more common as essential to transform school practice and enrich their theoretical instrument bitter day. The paper deals with the development of theoretical modeling as a scientific method to advance the process to be transformed and characterized by establishing relationships and links between the structural components that comprise it. In this regard it is proposed as an objective socialize some theoretical and methodological considerations that favor the use of modeling method in the scientific research activity of teachers.

  1. Shape of the self-concept clarity change during group psychotherapy predicts the outcome: An empirical validation of the theoretical model of the self-concept change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rafał eStyła

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Background: Self-concept clarity describes the extent to which the schemas of the self are internally integrated, well defined, and temporally stable. This article presents a theoretical model that describes how different shapes of self-concept clarity change (especially stable increase and V shape observed in the course of psychotherapy are related to the therapy outcome. Linking the concept of Jean Piaget and the dynamic systems theory, the study postulates that a stable self-concept clarity increase is needed for the participants with a rather healthy personality structure, while self-concept clarity change characterized by a V shape or fluctuations is optimal for more disturbed patients. Method: Correlational study in a naturalistic setting with repeated measurements (M=5.8 was conducted on the sample of 85 patients diagnosed with neurosis and personality disorders receiving intensive eclectic group psychotherapy under routine inpatient conditions. Participants filled in the Self-Concept Clarity Scale, Symptoms’ Questionnaire KS-II, and Neurotic Personality Questionnaire KON-2006 at the beginning and at the end of the course of psychotherapy. The Self-Concept Clarity Scale was also administered every two weeks during psychotherapy. Results: As hypothesized, among the relatively healthiest group of patients the stable self-concept clarity increase was related to positive treatment outcome, while more disturbed patients benefited from the fluctuations and V shape of self-concept clarity change. Conclusions: The findings support the idea that for different personality dispositions either a monotonic increase or transient destabilization of self-concept clarity is a sign of a good treatment prognosis.

  2. Theoretical models for recombination in expanding gas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Avron, Y.; Kahane, S.

    1978-09-01

    In laser isotope separation of atomic uranium, one is confronted with the theoretical problem of estimating the concentration of thermally ionized uranium atoms. To investigate this problem theoretical models for recombination in an expanding gas and in the absence of local thermal equilibrium have been constructed. The expansion of the gas is described by soluble models of the hydrodynamic equation, and the recombination by rate equations. General results for the freezing effect for the suitable ranges of the gas parameters are obtained. The impossibility of thermal equilibrium in expanding two-component systems is proven

  3. Modeling business processes: theoretical and practical aspects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V.V. Dubininа

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The essence of process-oriented enterprise management has been examined in the article. The content and types of information technology have been analyzed in the article, due to the complexity and differentiation of existing methods, as well as the specificity of language, terminology of the enterprise business processes modeling. The theoretical aspects of business processes modeling have been reviewed and the modern traditional modeling techniques received practical application in the visualization model of retailers activity have been studied in the article. In the process of theoretical analysis of the modeling methods found that UFO-toolkit method that has been developed by Ukrainian scientists due to it systemology integrated opportunities, is the most suitable for structural and object analysis of retailers business processes. It was designed visualized simulation model of the business process "sales" as is" of retailers using a combination UFO-elements with the aim of the further practical formalization and optimization of a given business process.

  4. A statistical rain attenuation prediction model with application to the advanced communication technology satellite project. 1: Theoretical development and application to yearly predictions for selected cities in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manning, Robert M.

    1986-01-01

    A rain attenuation prediction model is described for use in calculating satellite communication link availability for any specific location in the world that is characterized by an extended record of rainfall. Such a formalism is necessary for the accurate assessment of such availability predictions in the case of the small user-terminal concept of the Advanced Communication Technology Satellite (ACTS) Project. The model employs the theory of extreme value statistics to generate the necessary statistical rainrate parameters from rain data in the form compiled by the National Weather Service. These location dependent rain statistics are then applied to a rain attenuation model to obtain a yearly prediction of the occurrence of attenuation on any satellite link at that location. The predictions of this model are compared to those of the Crane Two-Component Rain Model and some empirical data and found to be very good. The model is then used to calculate rain attenuation statistics at 59 locations in the United States (including Alaska and Hawaii) for the 20 GHz downlinks and 30 GHz uplinks of the proposed ACTS system. The flexibility of this modeling formalism is such that it allows a complete and unified treatment of the temporal aspects of rain attenuation that leads to the design of an optimum stochastic power control algorithm, the purpose of which is to efficiently counter such rain fades on a satellite link.

  5. Theoretical prediction of thermal conductivity for thermal protection systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gori, F.; Corasaniti, S.; Worek, W.M.; Minkowycz, W.J.

    2012-01-01

    The present work is aimed to evaluate the effective thermal conductivity of an ablative composite material in the state of virgin material and in three paths of degradation. The composite material is undergoing ablation with formation of void pores or char and void pores. The one dimensional effective thermal conductivity is evaluated theoretically by the solution of heat conduction under two assumptions, i.e. parallel isotherms and parallel heat fluxes. The paper presents the theoretical model applied to an elementary cubic cell of the composite material which is made of two crossed fibres and a matrix. A numerical simulation is carried out to compare the numerical results with the theoretical ones for different values of the filler volume fraction. - Highlights: ► Theoretical models of the thermal conductivity of an ablative composite. ► Composite material is made of two crossed fibres and a matrix. ► Three mechanisms of degradation are investigated. ► One dimensional thermal conductivity is evaluated by the heat conduction equation. ► Numerical simulations to be compared with the theoretical models.

  6. A theoretical model of multielectrode DBR lasers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pan, Xing; Olesen, Henning; Tromborg, Bjarne

    1988-01-01

    A theoretical model for two- and three-section tunable distributed Bragg reflector (DBR) lasers is presented. The static tuning properties are studied in terms of threshold current, linewidth, oscillation frequency, and output power. Regions of continuous tuning for three-section DBR lasers...

  7. Hybrid quantum teleportation: A theoretical model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Takeda, Shuntaro; Mizuta, Takahiro; Fuwa, Maria; Yoshikawa, Jun-ichi; Yonezawa, Hidehiro; Furusawa, Akira [Department of Applied Physics, School of Engineering, The University of Tokyo, 7-3-1 Hongo, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113-8656 (Japan)

    2014-12-04

    Hybrid quantum teleportation – continuous-variable teleportation of qubits – is a promising approach for deterministically teleporting photonic qubits. We propose how to implement it with current technology. Our theoretical model shows that faithful qubit transfer can be achieved for this teleportation by choosing an optimal gain for the teleporter’s classical channel.

  8. A field theoretic model for static friction

    OpenAIRE

    Mahyaeh, I.; Rouhani, S.

    2013-01-01

    We present a field theoretic model for friction, where the friction coefficient between two surfaces may be calculated based on elastic properties of the surfaces. We assume that the geometry of contact surface is not unusual. We verify Amonton's laws to hold that friction force is proportional to the normal load.This model gives the opportunity to calculate the static coefficient of friction for a few cases, and show that it is in agreement with observed values. Furthermore we show that the ...

  9. Modelling in Accounting. Theoretical and Practical Dimensions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Teresa Szot -Gabryś

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Accounting in the theoretical approach is a scientific discipline based on specific paradigms. In the practical aspect, accounting manifests itself through the introduction of a system for measurement of economic quantities which operates in a particular business entity. A characteristic of accounting is its flexibility and ability of adaptation to information needs of information recipients. One of the main currents in the development of accounting theory and practice is to cover by economic measurements areas which have not been hitherto covered by any accounting system (it applies, for example, to small businesses, agricultural farms, human capital, which requires the development of an appropriate theoretical and practical model. The article illustrates the issue of modelling in accounting based on the example of an accounting model developed for small businesses, i.e. economic entities which are not obliged by law to keep accounting records.

  10. Cultural Resource Predictive Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-10-01

    refining formal, inductive predictive models is the quality of the archaeological and environmental data. To build models efficiently, relevant...geomorphology, and historic information . Lessons Learned: The original model was focused on the identification of prehistoric resources. This...system but uses predictive modeling informally . For example, there is no probability for buried archaeological deposits on the Burton Mesa, but there is

  11. Predictive modeling of complications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osorio, Joseph A; Scheer, Justin K; Ames, Christopher P

    2016-09-01

    Predictive analytic algorithms are designed to identify patterns in the data that allow for accurate predictions without the need for a hypothesis. Therefore, predictive modeling can provide detailed and patient-specific information that can be readily applied when discussing the risks of surgery with a patient. There are few studies using predictive modeling techniques in the adult spine surgery literature. These types of studies represent the beginning of the use of predictive analytics in spine surgery outcomes. We will discuss the advancements in the field of spine surgery with respect to predictive analytics, the controversies surrounding the technique, and the future directions.

  12. Theoretical aspects of spatial-temporal modeling

    CERN Document Server

    Matsui, Tomoko

    2015-01-01

    This book provides a modern introductory tutorial on specialized theoretical aspects of spatial and temporal modeling. The areas covered involve a range of topics which reflect the diversity of this domain of research across a number of quantitative disciplines. For instance, the first chapter provides up-to-date coverage of particle association measures that underpin the theoretical properties of recently developed random set methods in space and time otherwise known as the class of probability hypothesis density framework (PHD filters). The second chapter gives an overview of recent advances in Monte Carlo methods for Bayesian filtering in high-dimensional spaces. In particular, the chapter explains how one may extend classical sequential Monte Carlo methods for filtering and static inference problems to high dimensions and big-data applications. The third chapter presents an overview of generalized families of processes that extend the class of Gaussian process models to heavy-tailed families known as alph...

  13. Explaining clinical behaviors using multiple theoretical models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eccles, Martin P; Grimshaw, Jeremy M; MacLennan, Graeme; Bonetti, Debbie; Glidewell, Liz; Pitts, Nigel B; Steen, Nick; Thomas, Ruth; Walker, Anne; Johnston, Marie

    2012-10-17

    In the field of implementation research, there is an increased interest in use of theory when designing implementation research studies involving behavior change. In 2003, we initiated a series of five studies to establish a scientific rationale for interventions to translate research findings into clinical practice by exploring the performance of a number of different, commonly used, overlapping behavioral theories and models. We reflect on the strengths and weaknesses of the methods, the performance of the theories, and consider where these methods sit alongside the range of methods for studying healthcare professional behavior change. These were five studies of the theory-based cognitions and clinical behaviors (taking dental radiographs, performing dental restorations, placing fissure sealants, managing upper respiratory tract infections without prescribing antibiotics, managing low back pain without ordering lumbar spine x-rays) of random samples of primary care dentists and physicians. Measures were derived for the explanatory theoretical constructs in the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB), Social Cognitive Theory (SCT), and Illness Representations specified by the Common Sense Self Regulation Model (CSSRM). We constructed self-report measures of two constructs from Learning Theory (LT), a measure of Implementation Intentions (II), and the Precaution Adoption Process. We collected data on theory-based cognitions (explanatory measures) and two interim outcome measures (stated behavioral intention and simulated behavior) by postal questionnaire survey during the 12-month period to which objective measures of behavior (collected from routine administrative sources) were related. Planned analyses explored the predictive value of theories in explaining variance in intention, behavioral simulation and behavior. Response rates across the five surveys ranged from 21% to 48%; we achieved the target sample size for three of the five surveys. For the predictor variables

  14. Explaining clinical behaviors using multiple theoretical models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eccles Martin P

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In the field of implementation research, there is an increased interest in use of theory when designing implementation research studies involving behavior change. In 2003, we initiated a series of five studies to establish a scientific rationale for interventions to translate research findings into clinical practice by exploring the performance of a number of different, commonly used, overlapping behavioral theories and models. We reflect on the strengths and weaknesses of the methods, the performance of the theories, and consider where these methods sit alongside the range of methods for studying healthcare professional behavior change. Methods These were five studies of the theory-based cognitions and clinical behaviors (taking dental radiographs, performing dental restorations, placing fissure sealants, managing upper respiratory tract infections without prescribing antibiotics, managing low back pain without ordering lumbar spine x-rays of random samples of primary care dentists and physicians. Measures were derived for the explanatory theoretical constructs in the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB, Social Cognitive Theory (SCT, and Illness Representations specified by the Common Sense Self Regulation Model (CSSRM. We constructed self-report measures of two constructs from Learning Theory (LT, a measure of Implementation Intentions (II, and the Precaution Adoption Process. We collected data on theory-based cognitions (explanatory measures and two interim outcome measures (stated behavioral intention and simulated behavior by postal questionnaire survey during the 12-month period to which objective measures of behavior (collected from routine administrative sources were related. Planned analyses explored the predictive value of theories in explaining variance in intention, behavioral simulation and behavior. Results Response rates across the five surveys ranged from 21% to 48%; we achieved the target sample size for three of

  15. Empathy and child neglect: a theoretical model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Paul, Joaquín; Guibert, María

    2008-11-01

    To present an explanatory theory-based model of child neglect. This model does not address neglectful behaviors of parents with mental retardation, alcohol or drug abuse, or severe mental health problems. In this model parental behavior aimed to satisfy a child's need is considered a helping behavior and, as a consequence, child neglect is considered as a specific type of non-helping behavior. The central hypothesis of the theoretical model presented here suggests that neglectful parents cannot develop the helping response set to care for their children because the observation of a child's signal of need does not lead to the experience of emotions that motivate helping or because the parents experience these emotions, but specific cognitions modify the motivation to help. The present theoretical model suggests that different typologies of neglectful parents could be developed based on different reasons that parents might not to experience emotions that motivate helping behaviors. The model can be helpful to promote new empirical studies about the etiology of different groups of neglectful families.

  16. Teacher Efficacy in Student Engagement, Instructional Management, Student Stressors, and Burnout: A Theoretical Model Using In-Class Variables to Predict Teachers' Intent-to-Leave

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Nancy K.; Sass, Daniel A.; Schmitt, Thomas A.

    2012-01-01

    The models presented here posit a complex relationship between efficacy in student engagement and intent-to-leave that is mediated by in-class variables of instructional management, student behavior stressors, aspects of burnout, and job satisfaction. Using data collected from 631 teachers, analyses provided support for the two models that…

  17. Surface physics theoretical models and experimental methods

    CERN Document Server

    Mamonova, Marina V; Prudnikova, I A

    2016-01-01

    The demands of production, such as thin films in microelectronics, rely on consideration of factors influencing the interaction of dissimilar materials that make contact with their surfaces. Bond formation between surface layers of dissimilar condensed solids-termed adhesion-depends on the nature of the contacting bodies. Thus, it is necessary to determine the characteristics of adhesion interaction of different materials from both applied and fundamental perspectives of surface phenomena. Given the difficulty in obtaining reliable experimental values of the adhesion strength of coatings, the theoretical approach to determining adhesion characteristics becomes more important. Surface Physics: Theoretical Models and Experimental Methods presents straightforward and efficient approaches and methods developed by the authors that enable the calculation of surface and adhesion characteristics for a wide range of materials: metals, alloys, semiconductors, and complex compounds. The authors compare results from the ...

  18. Improved models for the prediction of activity coefficients in nearly athermal mixtures .2. A theoretically-based G(E)-model based on the van der Waals partition function

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kontogeorgis, Georgios; Georgios, Nikolopoulos; Fredenslund, Aage

    1997-01-01

    available from molecular simulation studies). The predictions of the Chain-FV model are better than the Flory-Huggins and Elbro terms and equivalent to the recently proposed empirical R-UNIFAC and p-FV models. However, unlike the latter two models, the one proposed in this work offers a successful...

  19. The First Galaxies Theoretical Predictions and Observational Clues

    CERN Document Server

    Mobasher, Bahram; Bromm, Volker

    2013-01-01

    New observations of the period between the cosmic recombination and the end of reionization are posing intriguing questions about where the first generations of stars were formed, how the first galaxies were assembled, whether these galaxies have low redshift counterparts, and what role the early galaxies played in the reionization process. Combining the new observational data with theoretical models can shed new light on open issues regarding the star formation process, its role in the reionization of the Universe, and the metal enrichment in galaxies at those early epochs. This volume brings together leading experts in the field to discuss our current level of understanding and what may come in the near future as our observational as well as theoretical tools improve. The book confronts the theory of how the first stars, black holes, and galaxies formed with current and planned observations. This synthesis is very timely, just ahead of the establishment of major new facilities, such as the James Webb Space ...

  20. Prediction of Individual Muscle Forces Using Lagrange Multipliers Method - A Model of the Upper Human Limb in the Sagittal Plane: I. Theoretical Considerations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raikova, ROSITSA

    2000-01-01

    Analytical solutions of indeterminate problems formulated for biomechanical models with more than one degree of freedom (DOF) are rarely found. This paper is an extension of the investigations of a 1 DOF model (Raikova, 1996, J. Biomechanics, 763-772) for a more complex 3 DOF model. The proposed model of the human upper limb is in the sagittal plane and includes ten muscle elements, four of them being two-joint ones. The formulated optimization task is solved analytically using the method of Lagrange multipliers. It is supposed that the optimization function is complex but can be approximated by a weighted sum of the squared muscle forces, where the nature of the weight factors of the muscles are unknown. The proposed computational algorithm for determination of the unknown individual muscle forces and joint reactions is easily implemented and may be extended without difficulties for more DOF and muscles. The aim is to establish a means of investigation of the possible weight coefficients for different modelled situations, which will help in searching for their physiological interpretation and analytical description.

  1. Archaeological predictive model set.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-03-01

    This report is the documentation for Task 7 of the Statewide Archaeological Predictive Model Set. The goal of this project is to : develop a set of statewide predictive models to assist the planning of transportation projects. PennDOT is developing t...

  2. Aircraft noise prediction program theoretical manual: Rotorcraft System Noise Prediction System (ROTONET), part 4

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weir, Donald S.; Jumper, Stephen J.; Burley, Casey L.; Golub, Robert A.

    1995-01-01

    This document describes the theoretical methods used in the rotorcraft noise prediction system (ROTONET), which is a part of the NASA Aircraft Noise Prediction Program (ANOPP). The ANOPP code consists of an executive, database manager, and prediction modules for jet engine, propeller, and rotor noise. The ROTONET subsystem contains modules for the prediction of rotor airloads and performance with momentum theory and prescribed wake aerodynamics, rotor tone noise with compact chordwise and full-surface solutions to the Ffowcs-Williams-Hawkings equations, semiempirical airfoil broadband noise, and turbulence ingestion broadband noise. Flight dynamics, atmosphere propagation, and noise metric calculations are covered in NASA TM-83199, Parts 1, 2, and 3.

  3. A Theoretical Model of Water and Trade

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dang, Q.; Konar, M.; Reimer, J.; Di Baldassarre, G.; Lin, X.; Zeng, R.

    2015-12-01

    Water is an essential factor of agricultural production. Agriculture, in turn, is globalized through the trade of food commodities. In this paper, we develop a theoretical model of a small open economy that explicitly incorporates water resources. The model emphasizes three tradeoffs involving water decision-making that are important yet not always considered within the existing literature. One tradeoff focuses on competition for water among different sectors when there is a shock to one of the sectors only, such as trade liberalization and consequent higher demand for the product. A second tradeoff concerns the possibility that there may or may not be substitutes for water, such as increased use of sophisticated irrigation technology as a means to increase crop output in the absence of higher water availability. A third tradeoff explores the possibility that the rest of the world can be a source of supply or demand for a country's water-using products. A number of propositions are proven. For example, while trade liberalization tends to increase water use, increased pressure on water supplies can be moderated by way of a tax that is derivable with observable economic phenomena. Another example is that increased riskiness of water availability tends to cause water users to use less water than would be the case under profit maximization. These theoretical model results generate hypotheses that can be tested empirically in future work.

  4. A Game Theoretic Model of Thermonuclear Cyberwar

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Soper, Braden C. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2017-08-23

    In this paper we propose a formal game theoretic model of thermonuclear cyberwar based on ideas found in [1] and [2]. Our intention is that such a game will act as a first step toward building more complete formal models of Cross-Domain Deterrence (CDD). We believe the proposed thermonuclear cyberwar game is an ideal place to start on such an endeavor because the game can be fashioned in a way that is closely related to the classical models of nuclear deterrence [4–6], but with obvious modifications that will help to elucidate the complexities introduced by a second domain. We start with the classical bimatrix nuclear deterrence game based on the game of chicken, but introduce uncertainty via a left-of-launch cyber capability that one or both players may possess.

  5. Wind power prediction models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levy, R.; Mcginness, H.

    1976-01-01

    Investigations were performed to predict the power available from the wind at the Goldstone, California, antenna site complex. The background for power prediction was derived from a statistical evaluation of available wind speed data records at this location and at nearby locations similarly situated within the Mojave desert. In addition to a model for power prediction over relatively long periods of time, an interim simulation model that produces sample wind speeds is described. The interim model furnishes uncorrelated sample speeds at hourly intervals that reproduce the statistical wind distribution at Goldstone. A stochastic simulation model to provide speed samples representative of both the statistical speed distributions and correlations is also discussed.

  6. Theoretical prediction and impact of fundamental electric dipole moments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ellis, Sebastian A.R.; Kane, Gordon L.

    2016-01-01

    The predicted Standard Model (SM) electric dipole moments (EDMs) of electrons and quarks are tiny, providing an important window to observe new physics. Theories beyond the SM typically allow relatively large EDMs. The EDMs depend on the relative phases of terms in the effective Lagrangian of the extended theory, which are generally unknown. Underlying theories, such as string/M-theories compactified to four dimensions, could predict the phases and thus EDMs in the resulting supersymmetric (SUSY) theory. Earlier one of us, with collaborators, made such a prediction and found, unexpectedly, that the phases were predicted to be zero at tree level in the theory at the unification or string scale ∼O(10 16 GeV). Electroweak (EW) scale EDMs still arise via running from the high scale, and depend only on the SM Yukawa couplings that also give the CKM phase. Here we extend the earlier work by studying the dependence of the low scale EDMs on the constrained but not fully known fundamental Yukawa couplings. The dominant contribution is from two loop diagrams and is not sensitive to the choice of Yukawa texture. The electron EDM should not be found to be larger than about 5×10 −30 e cm, and the neutron EDM should not be larger than about 5×10 −29 e cm. These values are quite a bit smaller than the reported predictions from Split SUSY and typical effective theories, but much larger than the Standard Model prediction. Also, since models with random phases typically give much larger EDMs, it is a significant testable prediction of compactified M-theory that the EDMs should not be above these upper limits. The actual EDMs can be below the limits, so once they are measured they could provide new insight into the fundamental Yukawa couplings of leptons and quarks. We comment also on the role of strong CP violation. EDMs probe fundamental physics near the Planck scale.

  7. Zephyr - the prediction models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Torben Skov; Madsen, Henrik; Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg

    2001-01-01

    utilities as partners and users. The new models are evaluated for five wind farms in Denmark as well as one wind farm in Spain. It is shown that the predictions based on conditional parametric models are superior to the predictions obatined by state-of-the-art parametric models.......This paper briefly describes new models and methods for predicationg the wind power output from wind farms. The system is being developed in a project which has the research organization Risø and the department of Informatics and Mathematical Modelling (IMM) as the modelling team and all the Danish...

  8. Modeling Heliospheric Interface: Observational and Theoretical Challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pogorelov, N.; Heerikhuisen, J.; Borovikov, S.; Zank, G.

    2008-12-01

    Observational data provided by Voyager 1 and Voyager 2 spacecraft ahead of the heliospheric termination shock (TS) and in the heliosheath require considerate reassessment of theoretical models of the solar wind (SW) interaction with the magnetized interstellar medium (LISM). Contemporary models, although sophisticated enough to take into account kinetic processes accompanying charge exchange between ions and atoms and address the coupling of the interstellar and interplanetary magnetic fields (ISMF and IMF) at the heliospheric interface, are still unable to analyze the effect of non-thermal pick-up ions (PUI's) in the heliosheath. The presence of PUI's undermines the assumption of a Maxwellian distribution of the SW ions. We discuss the ways to improve physical models in this respect. The TS asymmetry observed by Voyagers can be attributed to the combination of 3D, time- dependent behavior of the SW and by the action of the ISMF. It is clear, however, that the ISMF alone can account for the TS asymmetry of about 10 AU only if it is unexpectedly strong (greater than 4 microgauss). We analyze the consequences of such magnetic fields for the neutral hydrogen deflection in the inner heliosphere from its original direction in the unperturbed LISM. We also discuss the conditions for the 2-3 kHz radio emission, which is believed to be generated in the outer heliosheath beyond the heliopause, and analyze possible location of radio emission sources under the assumption of strong magnetic field. The quality of the physical model becomes crucial when we need to address modern observational and theoretical challenges. We compare the plasma, neutral particle, and magnetic field distributions obtained with our MHD-kinetic and 5-fluid models. The transport of neutral particles is treated kinetically in the former and by a multiple neutral-fluid approach in the latter. We also investigate the distribution of magnetic field in the inner heliosheath for large angles between the Sun

  9. A theoretical model of water and trade

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dang, Qian; Konar, Megan; Reimer, Jeffrey J.; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Lin, Xiaowen; Zeng, Ruijie

    2016-03-01

    Water is an essential input for agricultural production. Agriculture, in turn, is globalized through the trade of agricultural commodities. In this paper, we develop a theoretical model that emphasizes four tradeoffs involving water-use decision-making that are important yet not always considered in a consistent framework. One tradeoff focuses on competition for water among different economic sectors. A second tradeoff examines the possibility that certain types of agricultural investments can offset water use. A third tradeoff explores the possibility that the rest of the world can be a source of supply or demand for a country's water-using commodities. The fourth tradeoff concerns how variability in water supplies influences farmer decision-making. We show conditions under which trade liberalization affect water use. Two policy scenarios to reduce water use are evaluated. First, we derive a target tax that reduces water use without offsetting the gains from trade liberalization, although important tradeoffs exist between economic performance and resource use. Second, we show how subsidization of water-saving technologies can allow producers to use less water without reducing agricultural production, making such subsidization an indirect means of influencing water use decision-making. Finally, we outline conditions under which riskiness of water availability affects water use. These theoretical model results generate hypotheses that can be tested empirically in future work.

  10. Validation of theoretical models through measured pavement response

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ullidtz, Per

    1999-01-01

    mechanics was quite different from the measured stress, the peak theoretical value being only half of the measured value.On an instrumented pavement structure in the Danish Road Testing Machine, deflections were measured at the surface of the pavement under FWD loading. Different analytical models were...... then used to derive the elastic parameters of the pavement layeres, that would produce deflections matching the measured deflections. Stresses and strains were then calculated at the position of the gauges and compared to the measured values. It was found that all analytical models would predict the tensile...

  11. Inverse and Predictive Modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Syracuse, Ellen Marie [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2017-09-27

    The LANL Seismo-Acoustic team has a strong capability in developing data-driven models that accurately predict a variety of observations. These models range from the simple – one-dimensional models that are constrained by a single dataset and can be used for quick and efficient predictions – to the complex – multidimensional models that are constrained by several types of data and result in more accurate predictions. Team members typically build models of geophysical characteristics of Earth and source distributions at scales of 1 to 1000s of km, the techniques used are applicable for other types of physical characteristics at an even greater range of scales. The following cases provide a snapshot of some of the modeling work done by the Seismo- Acoustic team at LANL.

  12. Development of a code system DEURACS for theoretical analysis and prediction of deuteron-induced reactions

    OpenAIRE

    Nakayama Shinsuke; Kouno Hiroshi; Watanabe Yukinobu; Iwamoto Osamu; Ye Tao; Ogata Kazuyuki

    2017-01-01

    We have developed an integrated code system dedicated for theoretical analysis and prediction of deuteron-induced reactions, which is called DEUteron-induced Reaction Analysis Code System (DEURACS). DEURACS consists of several calculation codes based on theoretical models to describe respective reaction mechanisms and it was successfully applied to (d,xp) and (d,xn) reactions. In the present work, the analysis of (d,xn) reactions is extended to higher incident energy up to nearly 100 MeV and ...

  13. Field theoretical prediction of a property of the tropical cyclone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spineanu, F.; Vlad, M.

    2014-01-01

    The large scale atmospheric vortices (tropical cyclones, tornadoes) are complex physical systems combining thermodynamics and fluid-mechanical processes. The late phase of the evolution towards stationarity consists of the vorticity concentration, a well known tendency to self-organization , an universal property of the two-dimensional fluids. It may then be expected that the stationary state of the tropical cyclone has the same nature as the vortices of many other systems in nature: ideal (Euler) fluids, superconductors, Bose-Einsetin condensate, cosmic strings, etc. Indeed it was found that there is a description of the atmospheric vortex in terms of a classical field theory. It is compatible with the more conventional treatment based on conservation laws, but the field theoretical model reveals properties that are almost inaccessible to the conventional formulation: it identifies the stationary states as being close to self-duality. This is of highest importance: the self-duality is known to be the origin of all coherent structures known in natural systems. Therefore the field theoretical (FT) formulation finds that the cuasi-coherent form of the atmospheric vortex (tropical cyclone) at stationarity is an expression of this particular property. In the present work we examine a strong property of the tropical cyclone, which arises in the FT formulation in a natural way: the equality of the masses of the particles associated to the matter field and respectively to the gauge field in the FT model is translated into the equality between the maximum radial extension of the tropical cyclone and the Rossby radius. For the cases where the FT model is a good approximation we calculate characteristic quantities of the tropical cyclone and find good comparison with observational data.

  14. Review of Theoretical Prediction Models for Organic Extract Metabolites, Effect of Drying Temperature on Smooth Muscle Relaxing Activity Induced by Organic Extracts Specially Cecropia Obtusifolia Portal and Web Server Predictors of Drug-Protein Interaction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aguirre-Crespo, Francisco; García-Mera, Xerardo; Guillén-Poot, Mónica Anahi; May-Díaz, Héctor Fernado; Tun-Suárez, Adrián; Aguirre-Crespo, A; Hernández-Rodríguez, J; Vergara-Galicia, Jorge; Rodríguez-López, V; Prado-Prado, Francisco J

    2015-02-19

    Cecropia obtusifolia bertol is medicinal specie used in the treatment of diabetes mellitus and hypertension and it has scientific studies that support the traditional use. However, it is required to understand the influence of drying temperature on the yield and pharmacological activity. Drying rate, extraction efficiency, changes in the UV-Vis spectrum and estimating chlorophylls were stimulated with the increasing temperature. Finally, relaxant activity of vascular smooth muscle is increased by 70ºC and reducing ability by the method of CARF increases with temperature. Analytical studies are required to identify changes in the metabolic content and those that ensure the safety and efficacy for human consumption. In this sense, bioinformatic studies may be helpful. Studies such as QSAR can help us to study these metabolites derived from natural products. MIND-BETS model and NL MIND-BETS model to predict DPIs was introduced using MARCH-INSIDE (MI) software to calculate structural parameters for drugs and enzymes respectively. We firstly revised the state-of-art on the design with review of previous works with hypertension activity based on theoretical studies. A study, evaluating the effect of drying temperature of leaves of C. obtusifolia on the relaxing of vascular smooth muscle, antioxidant activity and the presence of chlorophylls, with a focus on Cecropia metabolites. Last, we carried out QSAR studies using MIND-BEST and NL MIND-BEST web servers in order to understand the essential metabolites structural requirement for binding with receptors for FDA proteins.

  15. Determination of cognitive development: postnonclassical theoretical model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irina N. Pogozhina

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this research is to develop a postnonclassical cognitive processes content determination model in which mental processes are considered as open selfdeveloping, self-organizing systems. Three types of systems (dynamic, statistical, developing were analysed and compared on the basis of the description of the external and internal characteristics of causation, types of causal chains (dependent, independent and their interactions, as well as the nature of the relationship between the elements of the system (hard, probabilistic, mixed. Mechanisms of open non-equilibrium nonlinear systems (dissipative and four dissipative structures emergence conditions are described. Determination models of mental and behaviour formation and development that were developed under various theoretical approaches (associationism, behaviorism, gestaltism, psychology of intelligence by Piaget, Vygotsky culture historical approach, activity approach and others are mapped on each other as the models that describe behaviour of the three system types mentioned above. The development models of the mental sphere are shown to be different by the following criteria: 1 allocated determinants amount; 2 presence or absence of the system own activity that results in selecting the model not only external, but also internal determinants; 3 types of causal chains (dependent-independent-blended; 4 types of relationships between the causal chain that ultimately determines the subsequent system determination type as decisive (a tough dynamic pattern or stochastic (statistical regularity. The continuity of postnonclassical, classical and non-classical models of mental development determination are described. The process of gradual refinement, complexity, «absorption» of the mental determination by the latter models is characterized. The human mental can be deemed as the functioning of the open developing non-equilibrium nonlinear system (dissipative. The mental sphere is

  16. A statistical rain attenuation prediction model with application to the advanced communication technology satellite project. Part 2: Theoretical development of a dynamic model and application to rain fade durations and tolerable control delays for fade countermeasures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manning, Robert M.

    1987-01-01

    A dynamic rain attenuation prediction model is developed for use in obtaining the temporal characteristics, on time scales of minutes or hours, of satellite communication link availability. Analagous to the associated static rain attenuation model, which yields yearly attenuation predictions, this dynamic model is applicable at any location in the world that is characterized by the static rain attenuation statistics peculiar to the geometry of the satellite link and the rain statistics of the location. Such statistics are calculated by employing the formalism of Part I of this report. In fact, the dynamic model presented here is an extension of the static model and reduces to the static model in the appropriate limit. By assuming that rain attenuation is dynamically described by a first-order stochastic differential equation in time and that this random attenuation process is a Markov process, an expression for the associated transition probability is obtained by solving the related forward Kolmogorov equation. This transition probability is then used to obtain such temporal rain attenuation statistics as attenuation durations and allowable attenuation margins versus control system delay.

  17. Theoretical Predictions of Freestanding Honeycomb Sheets of Cadmium Chalcogenides

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhou, Jia [ORNL; Huang, Jingsong [ORNL; Sumpter, Bobby G [ORNL; Kent, Paul R [ORNL; Xie, Yu [ORNL; Terrones Maldonado, Humberto [ORNL; Smith, Sean C [ORNL

    2014-01-01

    Two-dimensional (2D) nanocrystals of CdX (X = S, Se, Te) typically grown by colloidal synthesis are coated with organic ligands. Recent experimental work on ZnSe showed that the organic ligands can be removed at elevated temperature, giving a freestanding 2D sheet of ZnSe. In this theoretical work, freestanding single- to few-layer sheets of CdX, each possessing a pseudo honeycomb lattice, are considered by cutting along all possible lattice planes of the bulk zinc blende (ZB) and wurtzite (WZ) phases. Using density functional theory, we have systematically studied their geometric structures, energetics, and electronic properties. A strong surface distortion is found to occur for all of the layered sheets, and yet all of the pseudo honeycomb lattices are preserved, giving unique types of surface corrugations and different electronic properties. The energetics, in combination with phonon mode calculations and molecular dynamics simulations, indicate that the syntheses of these freestanding 2D sheets could be selective, with the single- to few-layer WZ110, WZ100, and ZB110 sheets being favored. Through the GW approximation, it is found that all single-layer sheets have large band gaps falling into the ultraviolet range, while thicker sheets in general have reduced band gaps in the visible and ultraviolet range. On the basis of the present work and the experimental studies on freestanding double-layer sheets of ZnSe, we envision that the freestanding 2D layered sheets of CdX predicted herein are potential synthesis targets, which may offer tunable band gaps depending on their structural features including surface corrugations, stacking motifs, and number of layers.

  18. Comparisons of theoretically predicted transport from ion temperature gradient instabilities to L-mode tokamak experiments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kotschenreuther, M.; Wong, H.V.; Lyster, P.L.; Berk, H.L.; Denton, R.; Miner, W.H.; Valanju, P.

    1991-12-01

    The theoretical transport from kinetic micro-instabilities driven by ion temperature gradients is a sheared slab is compared to experimentally inferred transport in L-mode tokamaks. Low noise gyrokinetic simulation techniques are used to obtain the ion thermal transport coefficient X. This X is much smaller than in experiments, and so cannot explain L-mode confinement. Previous predictions based on fluid models gave much greater X than experiments. Linear and nonlinear comparisons with the fluid model show that it greatly overestimates transport for experimental parameters. In addition, disagreements among previous analytic and simulation calculations of X in the fluid model are reconciled

  19. A Modified Theoretical Model of Intrinsic Hardness of Crystalline Solids

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dai, Fu-Zhi; Zhou, Yanchun

    2016-01-01

    Super-hard materials have been extensively investigated due to their practical importance in numerous industrial applications. To stimulate the design and exploration of new super-hard materials, microscopic models that elucidate the fundamental factors controlling hardness are desirable. The present work modified the theoretical model of intrinsic hardness proposed by Gao. In the modification, we emphasize the critical role of appropriately decomposing a crystal to pseudo-binary crystals, which should be carried out based on the valence electron population of each bond. After modification, the model becomes self-consistent and predicts well the hardness values of many crystals, including crystals composed of complex chemical bonds. The modified model provides fundamental insights into the nature of hardness, which can facilitate the quest for intrinsic super-hard materials. PMID:27604165

  20. Assessing a Theoretical Model on EFL College Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Yu-Ping

    2011-01-01

    This study aimed to (1) integrate relevant language learning models and theories, (2) construct a theoretical model of college students' English learning performance, and (3) assess the model fit between empirically observed data and the theoretical model proposed by the researchers of this study. Subjects of this study were 1,129 Taiwanese EFL…

  1. Predictive Surface Complexation Modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sverjensky, Dimitri A. [Johns Hopkins Univ., Baltimore, MD (United States). Dept. of Earth and Planetary Sciences

    2016-11-29

    Surface complexation plays an important role in the equilibria and kinetics of processes controlling the compositions of soilwaters and groundwaters, the fate of contaminants in groundwaters, and the subsurface storage of CO2 and nuclear waste. Over the last several decades, many dozens of individual experimental studies have addressed aspects of surface complexation that have contributed to an increased understanding of its role in natural systems. However, there has been no previous attempt to develop a model of surface complexation that can be used to link all the experimental studies in order to place them on a predictive basis. Overall, my research has successfully integrated the results of the work of many experimentalists published over several decades. For the first time in studies of the geochemistry of the mineral-water interface, a practical predictive capability for modeling has become available. The predictive correlations developed in my research now enable extrapolations of experimental studies to provide estimates of surface chemistry for systems not yet studied experimentally and for natural and anthropogenically perturbed systems.

  2. Modelling in Accounting. Theoretical and Practical Dimensions

    OpenAIRE

    Teresa Szot -Gabryś

    2010-01-01

    Accounting in the theoretical approach is a scientific discipline based on specific paradigms. In the practical aspect, accounting manifests itself through the introduction of a system for measurement of economic quantities which operates in a particular business entity. A characteristic of accounting is its flexibility and ability of adaptation to information needs of information recipients. One of the main currents in the development of accounting theory and practice is to cover by economic...

  3. Predictive power of nuclear-mass models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu. A. Litvinov

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Ten different theoretical models are tested for their predictive power in the description of nuclear masses. Two sets of experimental masses are used for the test: the older set of 2003 and the newer one of 2011. The predictive power is studied in two regions of nuclei: the global region (Z, N ≥ 8 and the heavy-nuclei region (Z ≥ 82, N ≥ 126. No clear correlation is found between the predictive power of a model and the accuracy of its description of the masses.

  4. Modeling of alkynes: synthesis and theoretical properties

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Renato Rosseto

    2003-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we present the synthesis and simulation of alkynes derivatives. Semiempirical calculations were carried out for the ground and first excited states, including the spectroscopic properties of the absorption and emission (fluorescence and phosphorescence spectra by INDO/S-CI and DNdM-INDO/S-CI methods with geometries fully optimized by PM3/CI. The fact that the theoretical spectra are in accord with the experimental absorption spectra gives us a new possible approach on how structure modifications could affect the non-linear optical properties of alkynes.

  5. Theoretical temperature model with experimental validation for CLIC Accelerating Structures

    CERN Document Server

    AUTHOR|(CDS)2126138; Vamvakas, Alex; Alme, Johan

    Micron level stability of the Compact Linear Collider (CLIC) components is one of the main requirements to meet the luminosity goal for the future $48 \\,km$ long underground linear accelerator. The radio frequency (RF) power used for beam acceleration causes heat generation within the aligned structures, resulting in mechanical movements and structural deformations. A dedicated control of the air- and water- cooling system in the tunnel is therefore crucial to improve alignment accuracy. This thesis investigates the thermo-mechanical behavior of the CLIC Accelerating Structure (AS). In CLIC, the AS must be aligned to a precision of $10\\,\\mu m$. The thesis shows that a relatively simple theoretical model can be used within reasonable accuracy to predict the temperature response of an AS as a function of the applied RF power. During failure scenarios or maintenance interventions, the RF power is turned off resulting in no heat dissipation and decrease in the overall temperature of the components. The theoretica...

  6. Candidate Prediction Models and Methods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg; Nielsen, Torben Skov; Madsen, Henrik

    2005-01-01

    This document lists candidate prediction models for Work Package 3 (WP3) of the PSO-project called ``Intelligent wind power prediction systems'' (FU4101). The main focus is on the models transforming numerical weather predictions into predictions of power production. The document also outlines...

  7. How faith heals: a theoretical model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levin, Jeff

    2009-01-01

    This paper summarizes theoretical perspectives from psychology supportive of a healing effect of faith. First, faith is defined as a congruence of belief, trust, and obedience in relation to God or the divine. Second, evidence for a faith-healing association is presented, empirically and in theory. To exemplify religiously sanctioned affirmation of such a connection, selected passages are cited from the Jewish canon attesting to biblical and rabbinic support for a faith factor in longevity, disease risk, mental health and well-being, disease prevention, and healing. Third, reference to theories of hope, learned optimism, positive illusions, and opening up or disclosure, and to theory and research on psychoneuroimmunology and placebos, demonstrates that contemporary psychology can accommodate a healing power of faith. This is summarized in a typology of five hypothesized mechanisms underlying a faith-healing association, termed behavioral/conative, interpersonal, cognitive, affective, and psychophysiological. Finally, implications are discussed for the rapprochement of religion and medicine.

  8. POSITIVE LEADERSHIP MODELS: THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK AND RESEARCH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Javier Blanch, Francisco Gil

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this article is twofold; firstly, we establish the theoretical boundaries of positive leadership and the reasons for its emergence. It is related to the new paradigm of positive psychology that has recently been shaping the scope of organizational knowledge. This conceptual framework has triggered the development of the various forms of positive leadership (i.e. transformational, servant, spiritual, authentic, and positive. Although the construct does not seem univocally defined, these different types of leadership overlap and share a significant affinity. Secondly, we review the empirical evidence that shows the impact of positive leadership in organizations and we highlight the positive relationship between these forms of leadership and key positive organizational variables. Lastly, we analyse future research areas in order to further develop this concept.

  9. a Theoretical Model of a Superheated Liquid Droplet Neutron Detector.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harper, Mark Joseph

    Neutrons can interact with the atoms in superheated liquid droplets which are suspended in a viscous matrix material, resulting in the formation of charged recoil ions. These ions transfer energy to the liquid, sometimes resulting in the droplets vaporizing and producing observable bubbles. Devices employing this mechanism are known as superheated liquid droplet detectors, or bubble detectors. The basis of bubble detector operation is identical to that of bubble chambers, which have been well characterized by researchers such as Wilson, Glaser, Seitz, and others since the 1950's. Each of the microscopic superheated liquid droplets behaves like an independent bubble chamber. This dissertation presents a theoretical model which considers the three principal aspects of detector operation: nuclear reactions, charged particle energy deposition, and thermodynamic bubble formation. All possible nuclear reactions were examined and those which could reasonably result in recoil ions sufficiently energetic to vaporize a droplet were analyzed in detail. Feasible interactions having adequate cross sections include elastic and inelastic scattering, n-proton, and n-alpha reactions. Ziegler's TRansport of Ions in Matter (TRIM) code was used to calculate the ions' stopping powers in various compounds based on the ionic energies predicted by standard scattering distributions. If the ions deposit enough energy in a small enough volume then the entire droplet will vaporize without further energy input. Various theories as to the vaporization of droplets by ionizing radiation were studied and a novel method of predicting the critical (minimum) energy was developed. This method can be used to calculate the minimum required stopping power for the ion, from which the threshold neutron energy is obtainable. Experimental verification of the model was accomplished by measuring the response of two different types of bubble detectors to monoenergetic thermal neutrons, as well as to neutrons

  10. Melanoma risk prediction models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nikolić Jelena

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Background/Aim. The lack of effective therapy for advanced stages of melanoma emphasizes the importance of preventive measures and screenings of population at risk. Identifying individuals at high risk should allow targeted screenings and follow-up involving those who would benefit most. The aim of this study was to identify most significant factors for melanoma prediction in our population and to create prognostic models for identification and differentiation of individuals at risk. Methods. This case-control study included 697 participants (341 patients and 356 controls that underwent extensive interview and skin examination in order to check risk factors for melanoma. Pairwise univariate statistical comparison was used for the coarse selection of the most significant risk factors. These factors were fed into logistic regression (LR and alternating decision trees (ADT prognostic models that were assessed for their usefulness in identification of patients at risk to develop melanoma. Validation of the LR model was done by Hosmer and Lemeshow test, whereas the ADT was validated by 10-fold cross-validation. The achieved sensitivity, specificity, accuracy and AUC for both models were calculated. The melanoma risk score (MRS based on the outcome of the LR model was presented. Results. The LR model showed that the following risk factors were associated with melanoma: sunbeds (OR = 4.018; 95% CI 1.724- 9.366 for those that sometimes used sunbeds, solar damage of the skin (OR = 8.274; 95% CI 2.661-25.730 for those with severe solar damage, hair color (OR = 3.222; 95% CI 1.984-5.231 for light brown/blond hair, the number of common naevi (over 100 naevi had OR = 3.57; 95% CI 1.427-8.931, the number of dysplastic naevi (from 1 to 10 dysplastic naevi OR was 2.672; 95% CI 1.572-4.540; for more than 10 naevi OR was 6.487; 95%; CI 1.993-21.119, Fitzpatricks phototype and the presence of congenital naevi. Red hair, phototype I and large congenital naevi were

  11. K. Sridhar Moorthy's Theoretical Modelling in Marketing - A Review ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Modelling has become a visible tool in many disciplines including marketing and several marketing models have been constructed. These models serve their pedagogical and practical purposes in some cases. However, among the marketing models so often cited is Moorthy‟s Theoretical Modelling in Marketing.

  12. Theoretical predictions of diffusion from Brownian motion in superstrong polymers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dowell, F.

    1991-01-01

    This paper presents a summary of unique highly nonlinear static and dynamic theories for chain molecules (actually, for almost any kind of organic molecule), including the first superstrong polymers. These theories have been used to predict and explain (1) the physical self-assembly (self-ordering) of specific kinds of molecules into liquid crystalline (LC) phases (i.e., partially ordered phases) and (2) the diffusion of these molecules in various LC phases and the isotropic (I) liquid phase

  13. Theoretical predictions for charm and bottom production at the LHC

    CERN Document Server

    Cacciari, Matteo; Houdeau, Nicolas; Mangano, Michelangelo L; Nason, Paolo; Ridolfi, Giovanni

    2012-01-01

    We present predictions for a variety of single-inclusive observables that stem from the production of charm and bottom quark pairs at the 7 TeV LHC. They are obtained within the FONLL semi-analytical framework, and with two "Monte Carlo + NLO" approaches, MC@NLO and POWHEG. Results are given for final states and acceptance cuts that are as close as possible to those used by experimental collaborations and, where feasible, are compared to LHC data.

  14. Theoretical study on optical model potential

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lim Hung Gi.

    1984-08-01

    The optical model potential of non-local effect on the rounded edge of the potential is derived. On the basis of this potential the functional form of the optical model potential, the energy dependence and relationship of its parameters, and the dependency of the values of the parameters on energy change are shown in this paper. (author)

  15. Hypermedia as an experiential learning tool: a theoretical model

    OpenAIRE

    Jose Miguel Baptista Nunes; Susan P. Fowell

    1996-01-01

    The process of methodical design and development is of extreme importance in the production of educational software. However, this process will only be effective, if it is based on a theoretical model that explicitly defines what educational approach is being used and how specific features of the technology can best support it. This paper proposes a theoretical model of how hypermedia can be used as an experiential learning tool. The development of the model was based on a experiential learni...

  16. Theoretical Models of Neutrino Mixing Recent Developments

    CERN Document Server

    Altarelli, Guido

    2009-01-01

    The data on neutrino mixing are at present compatible with Tri-Bimaximal (TB) mixing. If one takes this indication seriously then the models that lead to TB mixing in first approximation are particularly interesting and A4 models are prominent in this list. However, the agreement of TB mixing with the data could still be an accident. We discuss a recent model based on S4 where Bimaximal mixing is instead valid at leading order and the large corrections needed to reproduce the data arise from the diagonalization of charged leptons. The value of $\\theta_{13}$ could distinguish between the two alternatives.

  17. Theoretical Analysis of a Modified Continuum Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ge, Hong-Xia; Wu, Shu-Zhen; Cheng, Rong-Jun; Lo, Siu-ming

    2011-09-01

    Based on the optimal velocity (OV) model, a new car-following model for traffic flow with the consideration of the driver's forecast effect (DFE) was proposed by Tang et al., which can be used to describe some complex traffic phenomena better. Using an asymptotic approximation between the headway and density, we obtain a new macro continuum version of the car-following model with the DFE. The linear stability theory is applied to derive the neutral stability condition. The Korteweg—de Vries equation near the neutral stability line is given by nonlinear analysis and the corresponding solution for the traffic density wave is derived.

  18. Theoretical prediction of hysteretic rubber friction in ball on plate configuration by finite element method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper has investigated theoretically the influence of sliding speed and temperature on the hysteretic friction in case of a smooth, reciprocating steel ball sliding on smooth rubber plate by finite element method (FEM. Generalized Maxwell-models combined with Mooney-Rivlin model have been used to describe the material behaviour of the ethylenepropylene-diene-monomer (EPDM rubber studied. Additionally, the effect of the technique applied at the parameter identification of the material model and the number of Maxwell elements on the coefficient of friction (COF was also investigated. Finally, the open parameter of the Greenwood-Tabor analytical model has been determined from a fit to the FE results. By fitting, as usual, the Maxwell-model to the storage modulus master curve the predicted COF, in a broad frequency range, will be underestimated even in case of 40-term Maxwell-model. To obtain more accurate numerical prediction or to provide an upper limit for the hysteretic friction, in the interesting frequency range, the Maxwell parameters should be determined, as proposed, from a fit to the measured loss factor master curve. This conclusion can be generalized for all the FE simulations where the hysteresis plays an important role.

  19. Chaotic advection at large Péclet number: Electromagnetically driven experiments, numerical simulations, and theoretical predictions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Figueroa, Aldo [Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Autónoma del Estado de Morelos, Cuernavaca, Morelos 62209 (Mexico); Meunier, Patrice; Villermaux, Emmanuel [Aix-Marseille Univ., CNRS, Centrale Marseille, IRPHE, Marseille F-13384 (France); Cuevas, Sergio; Ramos, Eduardo [Instituto de Energías Renovables, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, A.P. 34, Temixco, Morelos 62580 (Mexico)

    2014-01-15

    We present a combination of experiment, theory, and modelling on laminar mixing at large Péclet number. The flow is produced by oscillating electromagnetic forces in a thin electrolytic fluid layer, leading to oscillating dipoles, quadrupoles, octopoles, and disordered flows. The numerical simulations are based on the Diffusive Strip Method (DSM) which was recently introduced (P. Meunier and E. Villermaux, “The diffusive strip method for scalar mixing in two-dimensions,” J. Fluid Mech. 662, 134–172 (2010)) to solve the advection-diffusion problem by combining Lagrangian techniques and theoretical modelling of the diffusion. Numerical simulations obtained with the DSM are in reasonable agreement with quantitative dye visualization experiments of the scalar fields. A theoretical model based on log-normal Probability Density Functions (PDFs) of stretching factors, characteristic of homogeneous turbulence in the Batchelor regime, allows to predict the PDFs of scalar in agreement with numerical and experimental results. This model also indicates that the PDFs of scalar are asymptotically close to log-normal at late stages, except for the large concentration levels which correspond to low stretching factors.

  20. Uncertainties of predictions from parton distributions 2, theoretical errors

    CERN Document Server

    Martin, A D; Stirling, W J; Thorne, R S; 10.1140/epjc/s2004-01825-2

    2004-01-01

    We study the uncertainties in parton distributions, determined in global fits to deep inelastic and related hard scattering data, due to so-called theoretical errors. Amongst these, we include potential errors due to the change of perturbative order (NLO to NNLO), ln(1/x) and ln(1 - x) effects, absorptive corrections and higher-twist contributions. We investigate these uncertainties both by including explicit corrections to our standard global analysis and by examining the sensitivity to changes of the x, Q/sup 2/, W/sup 2/ cuts on the data that are fitted. In this way we expose those kinematic regions where the conventional DGLAP description is inadequate. As a consequence we obtain a set of NLO, and of NNLO, conservative partons where the data are fully consistent with DGLAP evolution, but over a restricted kinematic domain. We also examine the potential effects of such issues as the choice of input parametrisation, heavy target corrections, assumptions about. the strange quark sea and isospin violation. He...

  1. Within tree variation of lignin, extractives, and microfibril angle coupled with the theoretical and near infrared modeling of microfibril angle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brian K. Via; chi L. So; Leslie H. Groom; Todd F. Shupe; michael Stine; Jan. Wikaira

    2007-01-01

    A theoretical model was built predicting the relationship between microfibril angle and lignin content at the Angstrom (A) level. Both theoretical and statistical examination of experimental data supports a square root transformation of lignin to predict microfibril angle. The experimental material used came from 10 longleaf pine (Pinus palustris)...

  2. Theoretical Predictions of Phase Transitions at Ultra-high Pressures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boates, Brian

    2013-06-01

    We present ab initio calculations of the high-pressure phase diagrams of important planetary materials such as CO2, MgSiO3, and MgO. For CO2, we predict a series of distinct liquid phases over a wide pressure (P) and temperature (T) range, including a first-order transition to a dense polymer liquid. We have computed finite-temperature free energies of liquid and solid CO2 phases to determine the melting curve beyond existing measurements and investigate possible phase separation transitions. The interaction of these phase boundaries with the mantle geotherm will also be discussed. Furthermore, we find evidence for a vast pressure-temperature regime where molten MgSiO3 decomposes into liquid SiO2 and solid MgO, with a volume change of approximately 1.2 percent. The demixing transition is driven by the crystallization of MgO ? the reaction only occurs below the high-pressure MgO melting curve. The predicted transition pressure at 10,000 K is in close proximity to an anomaly reported in recent laser-driven shock experiments of MgSiO3. We also present new results for the high-pressure melting curve of MgO and its B1-B2 solid phase transition, with a triple point near 364 GPa and 12,000 K.

  3. Theoretical predictions for pp and panti p elastic scattering in the TeV energy domain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bourrely, C.; Martin, A.

    1984-01-01

    We present theoretical predictions on total cross-sections and elastic scattering in the TeV energy domain obtained from the present experimental situation at the ISR and the panti p Collider. (orig.)

  4. On the problem of synthesis of superheavy nuclei. A short historical review on first theoretical predictions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kalinkin, B.N.; Gareev, F.A.

    1999-01-01

    It is shown that it is just Dubna that possesses the priority both in the recent synthesis of a superheavy nucleus with charge Z=114 (Flerov Laboratory of Nuclear Reactions, JINR) and in its theoretical prediction (Bogolyubov Laboratory of Theoretical Physics, JINR) made 33 years ago. Possible sizes of the 'island of stability' of superheavy nuclei are discussed

  5. Dark energy observational evidence and theoretical models

    CERN Document Server

    Novosyadlyj, B; Shtanov, Yu; Zhuk, A

    2013-01-01

    The book elucidates the current state of the dark energy problem and presents the results of the authors, who work in this area. It describes the observational evidence for the existence of dark energy, the methods and results of constraining of its parameters, modeling of dark energy by scalar fields, the space-times with extra spatial dimensions, especially Kaluza---Klein models, the braneworld models with a single extra dimension as well as the problems of positive definition of gravitational energy in General Relativity, energy conditions and consequences of their violation in the presence of dark energy. This monograph is intended for science professionals, educators and graduate students, specializing in general relativity, cosmology, field theory and particle physics.

  6. From theoretical model to practical use:

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjørk, Ida Torunn; Lomborg, Kirsten; Nielsen, Carsten Munch

    2013-01-01

    that is enhanced when appropriate support is given by leaders in the involved facilities. Conclusion. Knowledge translation is a time-consuming and collaborative endeavour. On the basis of our experience we advocate the implementation and use of a conceptual framework for the entire process of knowledge...... involving both the creation and application of knowledge in several phases. The case presented in this paper is the translation of the Model of Practical Skill Performance into education and practice. Advantages and problems with the use of this model and its adaptation and tailoring to local contexts...... of the model and to tailor the implementation of knowledge to the users. Implications for nursing. This article illustrates the need for enduring collaboration between stakeholders to promote the process of knowledge translation. Translation of research knowledge into practice is a time-consuming process...

  7. Theoretical modelling of carbon deposition processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marsh, G.R.; Norfolk, D.J.; Skinner, R.F.

    1985-01-01

    Work based on capsule experiments in the BNL Gamma Facility, aimed at elucidating the chemistry involved in the formation of carbonaceous deposit on CAGR fuel pin surfaces is described. Using a data-base derived from capsule experiments together with literature values for the kinetics of the fundamental reactions, a chemical model of the gas-phase processes has been developed. This model successfully reproduces the capsule results, whilst preliminary application to the WAGR coolant circuit indicates the likely concentration profiles of various radical species within the fuel channels. (author)

  8. SOME THEORETICAL MODELS EXPLAINING ADVERTISING EFFECTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vasilica Magdalena SOMEŞFĂLEAN

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Persuade clients is still the main focus of the companies, using a set of methods and techniques designed to influence their behavior, in order to obtain better results (profits over a longer period of time. Since the late nineteenth - early twentieth century, the american E.St.Elmo Lewis, considered a pioneer in advertising and sales, developed the first theory, AIDA model, later used by marketers and advertisers to develop a marketing communications strategy. Later studies have developed other models that are the main subject of this research, which explains how and why persuasive communication works, to understand why some approaches are effective and others are not.

  9. Theoretical Modelling of Intercultural Communication Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariia Soter

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The definition of the concepts of “communication”, “intercultural communication”, “model of communication” are analyzed in the article. The basic components of the communication process are singled out. The model of intercultural communication is developed. Communicative, behavioral and complex skills for optimal organization of intercultural communication, establishment of productive contact with a foreign partner to achieve mutual understanding, searching for acceptable ways of organizing interaction and cooperation for both communicants are highlighted in the article. It is noted that intercultural communication through interaction between people affects the development of different cultures’ aspects.

  10. K. Sridhar Moorthy's Theoretical Modelling in Marketing - A Review

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Toshiba

    cases. However, among the marketing models so often cited is. Moorthy‟s Theoretical Modelling in Marketing. This model is important, and hence this review once more, in that it offers a starting point, and in some cases the finishing line, for those who want to tread the pedestrian of modelling in marketing. But this is not the ...

  11. Predicting Innovation Acceptance by Simulation in Virtual Environments (Theoretical Foundations)

    Science.gov (United States)

    León, Noel; Duran, Roberto; Aguayo, Humberto; Flores, Myrna

    This paper extends the current development of a methodology for Computer Aided Innovation. It begins with a presentation of concepts related to the perceived capabilities of virtual environments in the Innovation Cycle. The main premise establishes that it is possible to predict the acceptance of a new product in a specific market, by releasing an early prototype in a virtual scenario to quantify its general reception and to receive early feedback from potential customers. The paper continues to focus this research on a synergistic extension of techniques that have their origins in optimization and innovation disciplines. TRIZ (Theory of Inventive Problem Solving), extends the generation of variants with Evolutionary Algorithms (EA) and finally to present the designer and the intended customer, creative and innovative alternatives. All of this developed on a virtual software interface (Virtual World). The work continues with a general description of the project as a step forward to improve the overall strategy.

  12. A Production Model for Construction: A Theoretical Framework

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ricardo Antunes

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The building construction industry faces challenges, such as increasing project complexity and scope requirements, but shorter deadlines. Additionally, economic uncertainty and rising business competition with a subsequent decrease in profit margins for the industry demands the development of new approaches to construction management. However, the building construction sector relies on practices based on intuition and experience, overlooking the dynamics of its production system. Furthermore, researchers maintain that the construction industry has no history of the application of mathematical approaches to model and manage production. Much work has been carried out on how manufacturing practices apply to construction projects, mostly lean principles. Nevertheless, there has been little research to understand the fundamental mechanisms of production in construction. This study develops an in-depth literature review to examine the existing knowledge about production models and their characteristics in order to establish a foundation for dynamic production systems management in construction. As a result, a theoretical framework is proposed, which will be instrumental in the future development of mathematical production models aimed at predicting the performance and behaviour of dynamic project-based systems in construction.

  13. K. Sridhar Moorthy's Theoretical Modelling in Marketing - A Review

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Toshiba

    /afrrev.v8i1.15. K. Sridhar Moorthy's Theoretical Modelling in. Marketing - A Review. Okoye, Ikechukwu-Maria Nnamdi Hyacinth. Head, Micro Enterprise Development/Training. University of Nigeria Nsukka Centre for Entrepreneurship and.

  14. SOME THEORETICAL MODELS EXPLAINING ADVERTISING EFFECTS

    OpenAIRE

    Vasilica Magdalena SOMEŞFĂLEAN

    2014-01-01

    Persuade clients is still the main focus of the companies, using a set of methods and techniques designed to influence their behavior, in order to obtain better results (profits) over a longer period of time. Since the late nineteenth - early twentieth century, the american E.St.Elmo Lewis, considered a pioneer in advertising and sales, developed the first theory, AIDA model, later used by marketers and advertisers to develop a marketing communications strategy. Later studies have developed o...

  15. Explaining clinical behaviors using multiple theoretical models

    OpenAIRE

    Eccles, Martin P; Grimshaw, Jeremy M; MacLennan, Graeme; Bonetti, Debbie; Glidewell, Liz; Pitts, Nigel B; Steen, Nick; Thomas, Ruth; Walker, Anne; Johnston, Marie

    2012-01-01

    Abstract Background In the field of implementation research, there is an increased interest in use of theory when designing implementation research studies involving behavior change. In 2003, we initiated a series of five studies to establish a scientific rationale for interventions to translate research findings into clinical practice by exploring the performance of a number of different, commonly used, overlapping behavioral theories and models. We reflect on the strengths and weaknesses of...

  16. A theoretical prediction of critical heat flux in subcooled pool boiling during power transients

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pasamehmetoglu, K.O.; Nelson, R.A.; Gunnerson, F.S.

    1988-01-01

    Understanding and predicting critical heat flux (CHF) behavior during steady-state and transient conditions are of fundamenatal interest in the design, operation, safety of boiling and two-phase flow devices. This paper discusses the results of a comprehensive theoretical study made specifically to model transient CHF behavior in subcooled pool boiling. This study is based upon a simplified steady-state CHF model in terms of the vapor mass growth period. The results obtained from this theory indicate favorable agreement with the experimental data from cylindrical heaters with small radii. The statistical nature of the vapor mass behavior in transient boiling also is considered and upper and lower limits for the current theory are established. Various factors that affect the discrepancy between the data and the theory are discussed

  17. Theoretical prediction and experimental verification of light-load ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    This paper presents the small-signal stability analysis of an 11-kW open-loop inverter-fed induction motor drive, including the effect of inverter dead-time. The analysis is carried out using an improved smallsignal model of the drive that has been reported in literature recently, and is used to demonstrate small-signal ...

  18. Prediction and Theoretical Investigation of the Morphology of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Olympus BH2 optical microscope. Cerius 2 modeling. Crystal structures of erythromycin dihydrate were established by calculation of the simulated PXRD pattern. The program, TREOR90 of software. Cerius2, was used to collect frames of diffraction data, index reflections, and establish crystal cell parameters. For atomic ...

  19. Toward a theoretical model for mindfulness-based pain management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Day, Melissa A; Jensen, Mark P; Ehde, Dawn M; Thorn, Beverly E

    2014-07-01

    Mindfulness, as both a process and a practice, has received substantial research attention across a range of health conditions, including chronic pain. Previously proposed mechanisms underlying the potential health-related benefits of mindfulness and mindfulness-based interventions (MBIs) are based on a strong theoretical background. However, to date, an empirically grounded, integrated theoretical model of the mechanisms of MBIs within the context of chronic pain has yet to be proposed. This is a surprising gap in the literature given the exponential growth of studies reporting on the benefits of MBIs for heterogeneous chronic pain conditions. Moreover, given the importance of determining how, and for whom, psychological interventions for pain management are effective, it is imperative that this gap in the literature be addressed. The overarching aim of the current theoretical paper was to propose an initial integrated, theoretically driven, and empirically based model of the mechanisms of MBIs for chronic pain management. Theoretical and research implications of the model are discussed. The theoretical considerations proposed herein can be used to help organize and guide future research that will identify the mechanisms underlying the benefits of mindfulness-based treatments, and perhaps psychosocial treatments more broadly, for chronic pain management. This focus article presents an initial framework for an empirically based, theoretical model of the mechanisms of MBIs for chronic pain management. Implications of the framework for refining theory and for future research are addressed. Copyright © 2014 American Pain Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Category-theoretic models of linear Abadi & Plotkin Logic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Birkedal, Lars; Møgelberg, Rasmus Ejlers; Lerchedahl Petersen, Rasmus

    2008-01-01

    This paper presents a sound and complete category-theoretic notion of models for Linear Abadi & Plotkin Logic [Birkedal et al., 2006], a logic suitable for reasoning about parametricity in combination with recursion. A subclass of these called parametric LAPL structures can be seen...... as an axiomatization of domain theoretic models of parametric polymorphism, and we show how to solve general (nested) recursive domain equations in these. parametric LAPL structures constitute a general notion of model of parametricity in a setting with recursion. In future papers we will demonstrate this by showing...... how many different models of parametricity and recursion give rise to parametric LAPL structures, including Simpson and Rosolini’s set theoretic models [Rosolini and Simpson, 2004], a syntactic model based on Lily [Pitts, 2000, Bierman et al., 2000] and a model based on admissible pers over...

  1. Theoretical postulation of PLC channel model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandru Ionuţ Chiuţă

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this document is to supply atheoretical basis for modelling the communicationlinks over powerlines. A comprehensive summary oftransmission properties and the noise scenario onpublic mains supply when used for data transmissionare given.Different PLC models - PLC channel, noise inPLC channel, coupling units, filters and conditioningdevices – will be created and they will be used tosimulate the PLC channel.PLC applications will have to work at veryunusual channels, solely designed for optimalelectrical power transportation, completelydisregarding signal transmission at high frequencies.It is shown that the typical properties aredescribed by transfer functions and noise scenariostypical for access and inhouse networks. The generaltransfer function for different channel types is derivedand, since an emulation system should reproducetypical classes of channels rather than singlemeasurements, the transfer function is concretisedwith reference channels. These are later serving asbasis for development of channel simulators andchannel emulators. Special attention is paid tomodelling of aperiodic impulsive noise since PLCsystems are reacting very sensitive to them and thisclass of noise has been insufficiently considered so far.

  2. Theoretical Modelling of Sound Radiation from Plate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaman, I.; Rozlan, S. A. M.; Yusoff, A.; Madlan, M. A.; Chan, S. W.

    2017-01-01

    Recently the development of aerospace, automotive and building industries demands the use of lightweight materials such as thin plates. However, the plates can possibly add to significant vibration and sound radiation, which eventually lead to increased noise in the community. So, in this study, the fundamental concept of sound pressure radiated from a simply-supported thin plate (SSP) was analyzed using the derivation of mathematical equations and numerical simulation of ANSYS®. The solution to mathematical equations of sound radiated from a SSP was visualized using MATLAB®. The responses of sound pressure level were measured at far field as well as near field in the frequency range of 0-200 Hz. Result shows that there are four resonance frequencies; 12 Hz, 60 Hz, 106 Hz and 158 Hz were identified which represented by the total number of the peaks in the frequency response function graph. The outcome also indicates that the mathematical derivation correlated well with the simulation model of ANSYS® in which the error found is less than 10%. It can be concluded that the obtained model is reliable and can be applied for further analysis such as to reduce noise emitted from a vibrating thin plate.

  3. Confidence scores for prediction models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gerds, Thomas Alexander; van de Wiel, MA

    2011-01-01

    In medical statistics, many alternative strategies are available for building a prediction model based on training data. Prediction models are routinely compared by means of their prediction performance in independent validation data. If only one data set is available for training and validation......, then rival strategies can still be compared based on repeated bootstraps of the same data. Often, however, the overall performance of rival strategies is similar and it is thus difficult to decide for one model. Here, we investigate the variability of the prediction models that results when the same...... to distinguish rival prediction models with similar prediction performances. Furthermore, on the subject level a confidence score may provide useful supplementary information for new patients who want to base a medical decision on predicted risk. The ideas are illustrated and discussed using data from cancer...

  4. Accelerator simulation and theoretical modelling of radiation effects (SMoRE)

    CERN Document Server

    2018-01-01

    This publication summarizes the findings and conclusions of the IAEA coordinated research project (CRP) on accelerator simulation and theoretical modelling of radiation effects, aimed at supporting Member States in the development of advanced radiation-resistant structural materials for implementation in innovative nuclear systems. This aim can be achieved through enhancement of both experimental neutron-emulation capabilities of ion accelerators and improvement of the predictive efficiency of theoretical models and computer codes. This dual approach is challenging but necessary, because outputs of accelerator simulation experiments need adequate theoretical interpretation, and theoretical models and codes need high dose experimental data for their verification. Both ion irradiation investigations and computer modelling have been the specific subjects of the CRP, and the results of these studies are presented in this publication which also includes state-ofthe- art reviews of four major aspects of the project...

  5. Dynamics in Higher Education Politics: A Theoretical Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kauko, Jaakko

    2013-01-01

    This article presents a model for analysing dynamics in higher education politics (DHEP). Theoretically the model draws on the conceptual history of political contingency, agenda-setting theories and previous research on higher education dynamics. According to the model, socio-historical complexity can best be analysed along two dimensions: the…

  6. Theoretical modelling of actinide spectra in solution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Danilo, Cecile

    2009-01-01

    The framework of this PhD is the interpretation of Nuclear Magnetic Relaxation Dispersion experiments performed on solvated U 4+ , NpO 2 + and PuO 2 2+ , which all have a f 2 configuration. Unexpectedly the two actinyl ions have a much higher relaxivity than U 4+ ,. One possible explanation is that the electronic relaxation rate is faster for Uranium(IV) than for the actinyl ions. We address this problem by exploring the electronic spectrum of the three compounds in gas phase and in solution with a two-step SOCI (Spin-Orbit Configuration-Interaction) method. The influence of electron correlation (treated in the first step) and spin-orbit relaxation effects (considered in the second step) has been discussed thoroughly. Solvent effects have been investigated as well. Another issue that has been questioned is the accuracy of Density Functional Theory for the study of actinide species. This matter has been discussed by comparing its performance to wave-function based correlated methods. The chemical problem chosen was the water exchange in [UO 2 2+ (H 2 O) 5 ]. We looked at the associative and at the dissociative mechanisms using a model with one additional water in the second hydration sphere. The last part of the thesis dealt with the spectroscopy of coordinated Uranyl(V). Absorption spectrum of Uranyl(V) with various ligands has been recorded. The first sharp absorption bands in the Near-Infrared region were assigned to the Uranium centered 5f-5f transitions, but uncertainties remained for the assignment of transitions observed in the Visible region. We computed the spectra of naked UO 2 + and [UO 2 (CO 3 ) 3 ] 5- to elucidate the spectral changes induced by the carbonate ligands. (author) [fr

  7. Point-counterpoint in physics: theoretical prediction and experimental discovery of elementary particles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leite Lopes, J.

    1984-01-01

    A report is given on the theoretical prediction and the experimental discovery of elementary particles from the electron to the weak intermediate vector bosons. The work of Lattes, Occhialini and Powell which put in evidence the pions predicted by Yukawa was the starting point of the modern experimental particle physics

  8. Theoretical Prediction and Experimental Determination of Heating Time During High-Temperature Heat Treatment of Wood

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    LIU Xin-you

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Theoretical prediction provides basic understanding and guidance to correctly implement a certaintechnology in the production process. The present study uses a differential equation to predict the heattransfer time between the surface and core layer of wood during the heat treatment, with applicability inestimating the duration of heat treatments at high temperatures. The obtained prediction was compared withthe result of an experimental study performed on Chinese poplar wood with various thicknesses (20, 40 and60mm. During this experiment, the time necessary for the core of wood to reach a temperature of 100°C,130°C and finally 180°C was monitored and the recorded values were compared with the predicted ones.The result of this comparison proved that the experimental values matched the theoretically predicted times,validating thus the applicability of the proposed equation as prediction tool.

  9. Spatial Economics Model Predicting Transport Volume

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lu Bo

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available It is extremely important to predict the logistics requirements in a scientific and rational way. However, in recent years, the improvement effect on the prediction method is not very significant and the traditional statistical prediction method has the defects of low precision and poor interpretation of the prediction model, which cannot only guarantee the generalization ability of the prediction model theoretically, but also cannot explain the models effectively. Therefore, in combination with the theories of the spatial economics, industrial economics, and neo-classical economics, taking city of Zhuanghe as the research object, the study identifies the leading industry that can produce a large number of cargoes, and further predicts the static logistics generation of the Zhuanghe and hinterlands. By integrating various factors that can affect the regional logistics requirements, this study established a logistics requirements potential model from the aspect of spatial economic principles, and expanded the way of logistics requirements prediction from the single statistical principles to an new area of special and regional economics.

  10. Modeling theoretical uncertainties in phenomenological analyses for particle physics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Charles, Jerome [CNRS, Aix-Marseille Univ, Universite de Toulon, CPT UMR 7332, Marseille Cedex 9 (France); Descotes-Genon, Sebastien [CNRS, Univ. Paris-Sud, Universite Paris-Saclay, Laboratoire de Physique Theorique (UMR 8627), Orsay Cedex (France); Niess, Valentin [CNRS/IN2P3, UMR 6533, Laboratoire de Physique Corpusculaire, Aubiere Cedex (France); Silva, Luiz Vale [CNRS, Univ. Paris-Sud, Universite Paris-Saclay, Laboratoire de Physique Theorique (UMR 8627), Orsay Cedex (France); Univ. Paris-Sud, CNRS/IN2P3, Universite Paris-Saclay, Groupe de Physique Theorique, Institut de Physique Nucleaire, Orsay Cedex (France); J. Stefan Institute, Jamova 39, P. O. Box 3000, Ljubljana (Slovenia)

    2017-04-15

    The determination of the fundamental parameters of the Standard Model (and its extensions) is often limited by the presence of statistical and theoretical uncertainties. We present several models for the latter uncertainties (random, nuisance, external) in the frequentist framework, and we derive the corresponding p values. In the case of the nuisance approach where theoretical uncertainties are modeled as biases, we highlight the important, but arbitrary, issue of the range of variation chosen for the bias parameters. We introduce the concept of adaptive p value, which is obtained by adjusting the range of variation for the bias according to the significance considered, and which allows us to tackle metrology and exclusion tests with a single and well-defined unified tool, which exhibits interesting frequentist properties. We discuss how the determination of fundamental parameters is impacted by the model chosen for theoretical uncertainties, illustrating several issues with examples from quark flavor physics. (orig.)

  11. A Simple theoretical model for 63Ni betavoltaic battery

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    ZUO, Guoping; ZHOU, Jianliang; KE, Guotu

    2013-01-01

    A numerical simulation of the energy deposition distribution in semiconductors is performed for 63 Ni beta particles. Results show that the energy deposition distribution exhibits an approximate exponential decay law. A simple theoretical model is developed for 63 Ni betavoltaic battery based on the distribution characteristics. The correctness of the model is validated by two literature experiments. Results show that the theoretical short-circuit current agrees well with the experimental results, and the open-circuit voltage deviates from the experimental results in terms of the influence of the PN junction defects and the simplification of the source. The theoretical model can be applied to 63 Ni and 147 Pm betavoltaic batteries. - Highlights: • The energy deposition distribution is found following an approximate exponential decay law when beta particles emitted from 63 Ni pass through a semiconductor. • A simple theoretical model for 63 Ni betavoltaic battery is constructed based on the exponential decay law. • Theoretical model can be applied to the betavoltaic batteries which radioactive source has a similar energy spectrum with 63 Ni, such as 147 Pm

  12. Theoretical bases of modeling decision-marketing solutions

    OpenAIRE

    Grigoruk Pavel Mikhaylovych

    2012-01-01

    The paper deals with issues related with theoretical aspects of modelling of marketing decision making process. According to system approach marketing decision making process is seen as a set of related subprocesses. Provided an opportunity to use the economic and mathematical modelling at each stage of the decision making process.

  13. Circumplex model of marital and family systems: VI. Theoretical update.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olson, D H; Russell, C S; Sprenkle, D H

    1983-03-01

    This paper updates the theoretical work on the Circumplex Model and provides revised and new hypotheses. Similarities and contrasts to the Beavers Systems Model are made along with comments regarding Beavers and Voeller's critique. FACES II, a newly revised assessment tool, provides both "perceived" and "ideal" family assessment that is useful empirically and clinically.

  14. Culture and Developmental Trajectories: A Discussion on Contemporary Theoretical Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Carvalho, Rafael Vera Cruz; Seidl-de-Moura, Maria Lucia; Martins, Gabriela Dal Forno; Vieira, Mauro Luís

    2014-01-01

    This paper aims to describe, compare and discuss the theoretical models proposed by Patricia Greenfield, Çigdem Kagitçibasi and Heidi Keller. Their models have the common goal of understanding the developmental trajectories of self based on dimensions of autonomy and relatedness that are structured according to specific cultural and environmental…

  15. Wind turbine control and model predictive control for uncertain systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thomsen, Sven Creutz

    as disturbance models for controller design. The theoretical study deals with Model Predictive Control (MPC). MPC is an optimal control method which is characterized by the use of a receding prediction horizon. MPC has risen in popularity due to its inherent ability to systematically account for time...

  16. Theoretical values of various parameters in the Gummel-Poon model of a bipolar junction transistor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benumof, R.; Zoutendyk, J.

    1986-01-01

    Various parameters in the Gummel-Poon model of a bipolar junction transistor are expressed in terms of the basic structure of a transistor. A consistent theoretical approach is used which facilitates an understanding of the foundations and limitations of the derived formulas. The results enable one to predict how changes in the geometry and composition of a transistor would affect performance.

  17. Bootstrap prediction and Bayesian prediction under misspecified models

    OpenAIRE

    Fushiki, Tadayoshi

    2005-01-01

    We consider a statistical prediction problem under misspecified models. In a sense, Bayesian prediction is an optimal prediction method when an assumed model is true. Bootstrap prediction is obtained by applying Breiman's `bagging' method to a plug-in prediction. Bootstrap prediction can be considered to be an approximation to the Bayesian prediction under the assumption that the model is true. However, in applications, there are frequently deviations from the assumed model. In this paper, bo...

  18. Audiovisual Rehabilitation in Hemianopia: A Model-Based Theoretical Investigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magosso, Elisa; Cuppini, Cristiano; Bertini, Caterina

    2017-01-01

    translate visual stimuli into short-latency saccades, possibly moving the stimuli into visual detection regions. The retina-SC-extrastriate circuit is related to restitutive effects: visual stimuli can directly elicit visual detection with no need for eye movements. Model predictions and assumptions are critically discussed in view of existing behavioral and neurophysiological data, forecasting that other oculomotor compensatory mechanisms, beyond short-latency saccades, are likely involved, and stimulating future experimental and theoretical investigations. PMID:29326578

  19. Audiovisual Rehabilitation in Hemianopia: A Model-Based Theoretical Investigation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elisa Magosso

    2017-12-01

    circuit can translate visual stimuli into short-latency saccades, possibly moving the stimuli into visual detection regions. The retina-SC-extrastriate circuit is related to restitutive effects: visual stimuli can directly elicit visual detection with no need for eye movements. Model predictions and assumptions are critically discussed in view of existing behavioral and neurophysiological data, forecasting that other oculomotor compensatory mechanisms, beyond short-latency saccades, are likely involved, and stimulating future experimental and theoretical investigations.

  20. Prediction models in complex terrain

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Marti, I.; Nielsen, Torben Skov; Madsen, Henrik

    2001-01-01

    The objective of the work is to investigatethe performance of HIRLAM in complex terrain when used as input to energy production forecasting models, and to develop a statistical model to adapt HIRLAM prediction to the wind farm. The features of the terrain, specially the topography, influence...... the performance of HIRLAM in particular with respect to wind predictions. To estimate the performance of the model two spatial resolutions (0,5 Deg. and 0.2 Deg.) and different sets of HIRLAM variables were used to predict wind speed and energy production. The predictions of energy production for the wind farms...... are calculated using on-line measurements of power production as well as HIRLAM predictions as input thus taking advantage of the auto-correlation, which is present in the power production for shorter pediction horizons. Statistical models are used to discribe the relationship between observed energy production...

  1. MODEL PREDICTIVE CONTROL FUNDAMENTALS

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2012-07-02

    Jul 2, 2012 ... Linear MPC. 1. Uses linear model: ˙x = Ax + Bu. 2. Quadratic cost function: F = xT Qx + uT Ru. 3. Linear constraints: Hx + Gu < 0. 4. Quadratic program. Nonlinear MPC. 1. Nonlinear model: ˙x = f(x, u). 2. Cost function can be nonquadratic: F = (x, u). 3. Nonlinear constraints: h(x, u) < 0. 4. Nonlinear program.

  2. Healing from Childhood Sexual Abuse: A Theoretical Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Draucker, Claire Burke; Martsolf, Donna S.; Roller, Cynthia; Knapik, Gregory; Ross, Ratchneewan; Stidham, Andrea Warner

    2011-01-01

    Childhood sexual abuse is a prevalent social and health care problem. The processes by which individuals heal from childhood sexual abuse are not clearly understood. The purpose of this study was to develop a theoretical model to describe how adults heal from childhood sexual abuse. Community recruitment for an ongoing broader project on sexual…

  3. Organizational Resilience: The Theoretical Model and Research Implication

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiao Lei

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Organizations are all subject to a diverse and ever changing and uncertain environment. Under this situation organizations should develop a capability which can resist the emergency and recover from the disruption. Base on lot of literature, the paper provides the main concept of organizational resilience; construct the primary theoretical model and some implications for management.

  4. Workshop IV – Cosmology-theoretical models/alternative scenarios ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Workshop IV – Cosmology-theoretical models/alternative scenarios: A report. ASIT BANERJEE. ½ and REZA TAVAKOL. 2. ½. Department of Physics, Jadavpur University, Calcutta 700 032, India. ¾. Astronomy Unit, School of Mathematical Sciences, Queen Mary and Westfield College, Mile End. Road, London E1 4NS, UK.

  5. The development of a theoretical model to investigate factors

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    user

    ISSN 0378-5254 Journal of Family Ecology and Consumer Sciences, Vol 41, 2013. The development of a theoretical model to investigate factors associated with environmentally significant choice behaviour in the South ..... attitudes toward the behaviour, social pressure or subjective norms surrounding the behaviour.

  6. Theoretical modeling and experimental analyses of laminated wood composite poles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng Piao; Todd F. Shupe; Vijaya Gopu; Chung Y. Hse

    2005-01-01

    Wood laminated composite poles consist of trapezoid-shaped wood strips bonded with synthetic resin. The thick-walled hollow poles had adequate strength and stiffness properties and were a promising substitute for solid wood poles. It was necessary to develop theoretical models to facilitate the manufacture and future installation and maintenance of this novel...

  7. Theoretical model analysis of molecular orientations in liquid protein ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In this study, some theoretical model functions have been used to explain the molecular behaviour of four different types of proteins; human haemoglobin, Insulin, egg-white lysozyme and β - globulin molecules in solution. The results of the computational fitting procedures showed that the dielectric dispersion of the protein ...

  8. Suitability of frequency modulated thermal wave imaging for skin cancer detection-A theoretical prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhowmik, Arka; Repaka, Ramjee; Mulaveesala, Ravibabu; Mishra, Subhash C

    2015-07-01

    A theoretical study on the quantification of surface thermal response of cancerous human skin using the frequency modulated thermal wave imaging (FMTWI) technique has been presented in this article. For the first time, the use of the FMTWI technique for the detection and the differentiation of skin cancer has been demonstrated in this article. A three dimensional multilayered skin has been considered with the counter-current blood vessels in individual skin layers along with different stages of cancerous lesions based on geometrical, thermal and physical parameters available in the literature. Transient surface thermal responses of melanoma during FMTWI of skin cancer have been obtained by integrating the heat transfer model for biological tissue along with the flow model for blood vessels. It has been observed from the numerical results that, flow of blood in the subsurface region leads to a substantial alteration on the surface thermal response of the human skin. The alteration due to blood flow further causes a reduction in the performance of the thermal imaging technique during the thermal evaluation of earliest melanoma stages (small volume) compared to relatively large volume. Based on theoretical study, it has been predicted that the method is suitable for detection and differentiation of melanoma with comparatively large volume than the earliest development stages (small volume). The study has also performed phase based image analysis of the raw thermograms to resolve the different stages of melanoma volume. The phase images have been found to be clearly individuate the different development stages of melanoma compared to raw thermograms. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Modelling bankruptcy prediction models in Slovak companies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kovacova Maria

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available An intensive research from academics and practitioners has been provided regarding models for bankruptcy prediction and credit risk management. In spite of numerous researches focusing on forecasting bankruptcy using traditional statistics techniques (e.g. discriminant analysis and logistic regression and early artificial intelligence models (e.g. artificial neural networks, there is a trend for transition to machine learning models (support vector machines, bagging, boosting, and random forest to predict bankruptcy one year prior to the event. Comparing the performance of this with unconventional approach with results obtained by discriminant analysis, logistic regression, and neural networks application, it has been found that bagging, boosting, and random forest models outperform the others techniques, and that all prediction accuracy in the testing sample improves when the additional variables are included. On the other side the prediction accuracy of old and well known bankruptcy prediction models is quiet high. Therefore, we aim to analyse these in some way old models on the dataset of Slovak companies to validate their prediction ability in specific conditions. Furthermore, these models will be modelled according to new trends by calculating the influence of elimination of selected variables on the overall prediction ability of these models.

  10. Theoretical predictions of thermodynamic parameters of adsorption of nitrogen containing environmental contaminants on kaolinite.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott, Andrea Michalkova; Burns, Elizabeth A; Lafferty, Brandon J; Hill, Frances C

    2015-02-01

    In this study thermodynamic parameters of adsorption of nitrogen containing environmental contaminants (NCCs, 2,4,6, trinitrotoluene (TNT), 2,4-dinitrotoluene (DNT), 2,4-dinitroanisole (DNAN), and 3-one-1,2,4-triazol-5-one (NTO)) interacting with the tetrahedral and octahedral surfaces of kaolinite were predicted. Adsorption complexes were investigated using a density functional theory and both periodic and cluster approach. The complexes, modeled using the periodic boundary conditions approach, were fully optimized at the BLYP-D2 level to obtain the structures and adsorption energies. The relaxed kaolinite-NCCs structures were used to prepare cluster models to calculate thermodynamic parameters and partition coefficients at the M06-2X-D3 and BLYP-D2 levels from the gas phase. The entropy effect on the Gibbs free energies of adsorption of NCCS on kaolinite was also studied and compared with available experimental data. The results showed that in all calculated models, the NCCs molecules are physisorbed and they favor a parallel orientation toward both kaolinite surfaces. It was found that all calculated NCCs compounds are more stable on the octahedral than on the tetrahedral surface of kaolinite. The Gibbs free energies and partition coefficients were also predicted for interactions of NCCs with Na-kaolinite from aqueous solution. Calculations revealed adsorption of NCCs is effective from the gas phase on both cation free kaolinite surfaces and on Na-kaolinite from aqueous solution at room temperature. Theoretical data were validated against experimental results, and the reasons for small differences between calculated and measured partition coefficients are discussed.

  11. Melanoma Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing melanoma cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  12. Toward a Theoretical Model of Decision-Making and Resistance to Change among Higher Education Online Course Designers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dodd, Bucky J.

    2013-01-01

    Online course design is an emerging practice in higher education, yet few theoretical models currently exist to explain or predict how the diffusion of innovations occurs in this space. This study used a descriptive, quantitative survey research design to examine theoretical relationships between decision-making style and resistance to change…

  13. Predictive models of moth development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Degree-day models link ambient temperature to insect life-stages, making such models valuable tools in integrated pest management. These models increase management efficacy by predicting pest phenology. In Wisconsin, the top insect pest of cranberry production is the cranberry fruitworm, Acrobasis v...

  14. Theoretical Model of Engagement in the Context of Brand Communities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Flávia D\\u2019albergaria Freitas

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This essay proposes to refine the concept of consumer engagement in the context of brand communities. A comprehensive review of studies addressing the phenomenon of brand community was made. This paper follows the tradition of Marketing Research and Consumer Behavior, more specifically the perspective of cognitive psychology. The main theoretical foundation of the study is the Social Identity Theory (SIT, also incorporating relevant contributions from the perspective of Consumer Culture Theory (CCT. Therefore, this study contributes to the progress of research on the phenomenon of engagement in brand communities, proposing a theoretical model that relates engagement with its antecedents factors and reflective dimensions.

  15. Experimental and theoretical study of magnetohydrodynamic ship models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cébron, David; Viroulet, Sylvain; Vidal, Jérémie; Masson, Jean-Paul; Viroulet, Philippe

    2017-01-01

    Magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) ships represent a clear demonstration of the Lorentz force in fluids, which explains the number of students practicals or exercises described on the web. However, the related literature is rather specific and no complete comparison between theory and typical small scale experiments is currently available. This work provides, in a self-consistent framework, a detailed presentation of the relevant theoretical equations for small MHD ships and experimental measurements for future benchmarks. Theoretical results of the literature are adapted to these simple battery/magnets powered ships moving on salt water. Comparison between theory and experiments are performed to validate each theoretical step such as the Tafel and the Kohlrausch laws, or the predicted ship speed. A successful agreement is obtained without any adjustable parameter. Finally, based on these results, an optimal design is then deduced from the theory. Therefore this work provides a solid theoretical and experimental ground for small scale MHD ships, by presenting in detail several approximations and how they affect the boat efficiency. Moreover, the theory is general enough to be adapted to other contexts, such as large scale ships or industrial flow measurement techniques.

  16. Experimental and theoretical study of magnetohydrodynamic ship models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Cébron

    Full Text Available Magnetohydrodynamic (MHD ships represent a clear demonstration of the Lorentz force in fluids, which explains the number of students practicals or exercises described on the web. However, the related literature is rather specific and no complete comparison between theory and typical small scale experiments is currently available. This work provides, in a self-consistent framework, a detailed presentation of the relevant theoretical equations for small MHD ships and experimental measurements for future benchmarks. Theoretical results of the literature are adapted to these simple battery/magnets powered ships moving on salt water. Comparison between theory and experiments are performed to validate each theoretical step such as the Tafel and the Kohlrausch laws, or the predicted ship speed. A successful agreement is obtained without any adjustable parameter. Finally, based on these results, an optimal design is then deduced from the theory. Therefore this work provides a solid theoretical and experimental ground for small scale MHD ships, by presenting in detail several approximations and how they affect the boat efficiency. Moreover, the theory is general enough to be adapted to other contexts, such as large scale ships or industrial flow measurement techniques.

  17. Theoretical Background for Predicting the Properties of Petroleum Fluids via Group Contribution Methods

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Bogdanić, Grozdana; Pavlíček, Jan; Wichterle, Ivan

    2012-01-01

    Roč. 42, SI (2012), s. 1873-1878 E-ISSN 1877-7058. [International Congress of Chemical and Process Engineering CHISA 2012 and 15th Conference PRES 2012 /20./. Prague, 25.08.2012-29.08.2012] Institutional support: RVO:67985858 Keywords : petroleum fluids * prediction * physico-chemical properties Subject RIV: CF - Physical ; Theoretical Chemistry

  18. Predictive Models and Computational Embryology

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA’s ‘virtual embryo’ project is building an integrative systems biology framework for predictive models of developmental toxicity. One schema involves a knowledge-driven adverse outcome pathway (AOP) framework utilizing information from public databases, standardized ontologies...

  19. A comparison of graph-theoretic DNA hybridization models

    OpenAIRE

    Brijder, Robert; Gillis Joris; Van den Bussche, Jan

    2012-01-01

    We show that the graph-theoretic DNA hybridization models of pot tiles [4, 5] and of sticker complexes [3, 2] are equivalent. This allows one to carry over known results from one model to the other. In addition, we introduce the concept of “greedy” hybridization and compare it to “regular” hybridization. DNA hybridization; multiset-based graph grammars; self-assembly; database theory

  20. Theoretical prediction of experimental jump and pull-in dynamics in a MEMS sensor

    KAUST Repository

    Ruzziconi, Laura

    2014-09-15

    The present research study deals with an electrically actuated MEMS device. An experimental investigation is performed, via frequency sweeps in a neighbourhood of the first natural frequency. Resonant behavior is explored, with special attention devoted to jump and pull-in dynamics. A theoretical single degree-of-freedom spring-mass model is derived. Classical numerical simulations are observed to properly predict the main nonlinear features. Nevertheless, some discrepancies arise, which are particularly visible in the resonant branch. They mainly concern the practical range of existence of each attractor and the final outcome after its disappearance. These differences are likely due to disturbances, which are unavoidable in practice, but have not been included in the model. To take disturbances into account, in addition to the classical local investigations, we consider the global dynamics and explore the robustness of the obtained results by performing a dynamical integrity analysis. Our aim is that of developing an applicable confident estimate of the system response. Integrity profiles and integrity charts are built to detect the parameter range where reliability is practically strong and where it becomes weak. Integrity curves exactly follow the experimental data. They inform about the practical range of actuality. We discuss the combined use of integrity charts in the engineering design. Although we refer to a particular case-study, the approach is very general.

  1. Management Innovation – Designing And Testing A Theoretical Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bezdrob Muamer

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Management innovation – the introduction of management processes, structures and practices that are new to companies, is crucial to business success. Based on the existing literature on management innovation and a rigorous theoretical approach to model design and development, a theoretical model of management innovation that is applicable to immature and underdeveloped markets was designed. Using this model, the study shows that the context in which companies operate, as well as companies’ management background (proficiency, are directly and positively related to management innovation. The main implication of the research is that the existing management innovation theory is applicable to market conditions in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina with only slight adaptation. Furthermore, this research provides important insights about the factors that affect the companies’ readiness to introduce innovative management structures, processes and practices.

  2. Predictions models with neural nets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vladimír Konečný

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available The contribution is oriented to basic problem trends solution of economic pointers, using neural networks. Problems include choice of the suitable model and consequently configuration of neural nets, choice computational function of neurons and the way prediction learning. The contribution contains two basic models that use structure of multilayer neural nets and way of determination their configuration. It is postulate a simple rule for teaching period of neural net, to get most credible prediction.Experiments are executed with really data evolution of exchange rate Kč/Euro. The main reason of choice this time series is their availability for sufficient long period. In carry out of experiments the both given basic kind of prediction models with most frequent use functions of neurons are verified. Achieve prediction results are presented as in numerical and so in graphical forms.

  3. Decision-Theoretical Navigation of Service Robots Using POMDPs with Human-Robot Co-Occurrence Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kun Qian

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available To improve the natural human-avoidance skills of service robots, a human motion predictive navigation method is proposed, namely PN-POMDP. A human-robot motion co-occurrence estimation algorithm is proposed which incorporates long-term and short-term human motion prediction. To improve the reliability of probabilistic and predictive navigation, the POMDP model is utilized to generate navigation control policies through theoretically optimal decisions. A layered motion control structure is proposed that combines global path planning and reactive avoidance. Multiple comity policies are integrated with a decision-making module that generates efficient and human-compliant navigational behaviours for robots. Experimental results illustrate the effectiveness and reliability of the predictive navigation method.

  4. MERGERS IN ΛCDM: UNCERTAINTIES IN THEORETICAL PREDICTIONS AND INTERPRETATIONS OF THE MERGER RATE

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hopkins, Philip F.; Bundy, Kevin; Wetzel, Andrew; Ma, Chung-Pei; Croton, Darren; Khochfar, Sadegh; Hernquist, Lars; Genel, Shy; Van den Bosch, Frank; Somerville, Rachel S.; Keres, Dusan; Stewart, Kyle; Younger, Joshua D.

    2010-01-01

    Different theoretical methodologies lead to order-of-magnitude variations in predicted galaxy-galaxy merger rates. We examine how this arises and quantify the dominant uncertainties. Modeling of dark matter and galaxy inspiral/merger times contribute factor of ∼2 uncertainties. Different estimates of the halo-halo merger rate, the subhalo 'destruction' rate, and the halo merger rate with some dynamical friction time delay for galaxy-galaxy mergers, agree to within this factor of ∼2, provided proper care is taken to define mergers consistently. There are some caveats: if halo/subhalo masses are not appropriately defined the major-merger rate can be dramatically suppressed, and in models with 'orphan' galaxies and under-resolved subhalos the merger timescale can be severely over-estimated. The dominant differences in galaxy-galaxy merger rates between models owe to the treatment of the baryonic physics. Cosmological hydrodynamic simulations without strong feedback and some older semi-analytic models (SAMs), with known discrepancies in mass functions, can be biased by large factors (∼5) in predicted merger rates. However, provided that models yield a reasonable match to the total galaxy mass function, the differences in properties of central galaxies are sufficiently small to alone contribute small (factor of ∼1.5) additional systematics to merger rate predictions. But variations in the baryonic physics of satellite galaxies in models can also have a dramatic effect on merger rates. The well-known problem of satellite 'over-quenching' in most current SAMs-whereby SAM satellite populations are too efficiently stripped of their gas-could lead to order-of-magnitude under-estimates of merger rates for low-mass, gas-rich galaxies. Models in which the masses of satellites are fixed by observations (or SAMs adjusted to resolve this 'over-quenching') tend to predict higher merger rates, but with factor of ∼2 uncertainties stemming from the uncertainty in those

  5. Multiscale modeling of complex materials phenomenological, theoretical and computational aspects

    CERN Document Server

    Trovalusci, Patrizia

    2014-01-01

    The papers in this volume deal with materials science, theoretical mechanics and experimental and computational techniques at multiple scales, providing a sound base and a framework for many applications which are hitherto treated in a phenomenological sense. The basic principles are formulated of multiscale modeling strategies towards modern complex multiphase materials subjected to various types of mechanical, thermal loadings and environmental effects. The focus is on problems where mechanics is highly coupled with other concurrent physical phenomena. Attention is also focused on the historical origins of multiscale modeling and foundations of continuum mechanics currently adopted to model non-classical continua with substructure, for which internal length scales play a crucial role.

  6. Understanding the inverse magnetocaloric effect through a simple theoretical model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ranke, P.J. von, E-mail: von.ranke@uol.com.b [Instituto de Fisica Armando Dias Tavares-Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro, Rua Sao Francisco Xavier, 524, Rio de Janeiro 20550-013 (Brazil); Alho, B.P.; Nobrega, E.P.; Oliveira, N.A. de [Instituto de Fisica Armando Dias Tavares-Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro, Rua Sao Francisco Xavier, 524, Rio de Janeiro 20550-013 (Brazil)

    2009-10-15

    We investigated the inverse magnetocaloric effect using a theoretical magnetic model formed by two coupled magnetic lattices to describe a ferrimagnetic system. The influence of the compensation temperature, and the ferrimagnetic-paramagnetic phase transition on the magnetocaloric effect was analyzed. Also, a relation between the area under the magnetocaloric curve and the net magnetic moment of a ferrimagnetic system was established in this work.

  7. Continuum damage modeling through theoretical and experimental pressure limit formulas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fatima Majid

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we developed a mathematical modeling to represent the damage of thermoplastic pipes. On the one hand, we adapted the theories of the rupture pressure to fit the High Density Polyethylene (HDPE case. Indeed, the theories for calculating the rupture pressure are multiple, designed originally for steels and alloys. For polymer materials, we have found that these theories can be adapted using a coefficient related to the nature of the studied material. The HDPE is characterized by two important values of pressure, deduced from the ductile form of the internal pressures evolution until burst. For this reason, we have designed an alpha coefficient taking into account these two pressures and giving a good approximation of the evolution of the experimental burst pressures through the theoretically corrected ones, using Faupel㒒s pressure formula. Then, we can deduce the evolution of the theoretical damage using the calculated pressures. On the other hand, two other mathematical models were undertaken. The first one has given rise to an adaptive model referring to an expression of the pressure as a function of the life fraction, the characteristic pressures and the critical life fraction. The second model represents a continuum damage model incorporating the pressure equations as a function of the life fraction and based on the burst pressure�s static damage model. These models represent important tools for industrials to assess the failure of thermoplastic pipes and proceed quick checks

  8. Link Prediction via Sparse Gaussian Graphical Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liangliang Zhang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Link prediction is an important task in complex network analysis. Traditional link prediction methods are limited by network topology and lack of node property information, which makes predicting links challenging. In this study, we address link prediction using a sparse Gaussian graphical model and demonstrate its theoretical and practical effectiveness. In theory, link prediction is executed by estimating the inverse covariance matrix of samples to overcome information limits. The proposed method was evaluated with four small and four large real-world datasets. The experimental results show that the area under the curve (AUC value obtained by the proposed method improved by an average of 3% and 12.5% compared to 13 mainstream similarity methods, respectively. This method outperforms the baseline method, and the prediction accuracy is superior to mainstream methods when using only 80% of the training set. The method also provides significantly higher AUC values when using only 60% in Dolphin and Taro datasets. Furthermore, the error rate of the proposed method demonstrates superior performance with all datasets compared to mainstream methods.

  9. Clusters of DNA induced by ionizing radiation: formation of short DNA fragments. I. Theoretical modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holley, W. R.; Chatterjee, A.

    1996-01-01

    We have developed a general theoretical model for the interaction of ionizing radiation with chromatin. Chromatin is modeled as a 30-nm-diameter solenoidal fiber comprised of 20 turns of nucleosomes, 6 nucleosomes per turn. Charged-particle tracks are modeled by partitioning the energy deposition between primary track core, resulting from glancing collisions with 100 eV or less per event, and delta rays due to knock-on collisions involving energy transfers >100 eV. A Monte Carlo simulation incorporates damages due to the following molecular mechanisms: (1) ionization of water molecules leading to the formation of OH, H, eaq, etc.; (2) OH attack on sugar molecules leading to strand breaks: (3) OH attack on bases; (4) direct ionization of the sugar molecules leading to strand breaks; (5) direct ionization of the bases. Our calculations predict significant clustering of damage both locally, over regions up to 40 bp and over regions extending to several kilobase pairs. A characteristic feature of the regional damage predicted by our model is the production of short fragments of DNA associated with multiple nearby strand breaks. The shapes of the spectra of DNA fragment lengths depend on the symmetries or approximate symmetries of the chromatin structure. Such fragments have subsequently been detected experimentally and are reported in an accompanying paper (B. Rydberg, Radiat, Res. 145, 200-209, 1996) after exposure to both high- and low-LET radiation. The overall measured yields agree well quantitatively with the theoretical predictions. Our theoretical results predict the existence of a strong peak at about 85 bp, which represents the revolution period about the nucleosome. Other peaks at multiples of about 1,000 bp correspond to the periodicity of the particular solenoid model of chromatin used in these calculations. Theoretical results in combination with experimental data on fragmentation spectra may help determine the consensus or average structure of the

  10. Improving the theoretical foundations of the multi-mode transport model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bateman, G.; Kritz, A.H.; Redd, A.J.; Erba, M.; Rewoldt, G.; Weiland, J.; Strand, P.; Kinsey, J.E.; Scott, B.

    2001-01-01

    A new version of the Multi-Mode transport model, designated MMM98, is being developed with improved theoretical foundations, in an ongoing effort to predict the temperature and density profiles in tokamaks. For transport near the edge of the plasma, MMM98 uses a new model based on 3-D nonlinear simulations of drift Alfven mode turbulence. Flow shear stabilization effects have been added to the Weiland model for Ion Temperature Gradient and Trapped Electron Modes, which usually dominates in most of the plasma core. For transport near the magnetic axis at high beta, a new kinetic ballooning mode model has been constructed based on FULL stability code computations. (author)

  11. Status of molten fuel coolant interaction studies and theoretical modelling work at IGCAR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rao, P.B.; Singh, Om Pal; Singh, R.S.

    1994-01-01

    The status of Molten Fuel Coolant Interaction (MFCI) studies is reviewed and some of the important observations made are presented. A new model for MFCI that is developed at IGCAR by considering the various mechanisms in detail is described. The model is validated and compared with the available experimental data and theoretical work at different stages of its development. Several parametric studies that are carried using this model are described. The predictions from this model have been found to be satisfactory, considering the complexity of the MFCI. A need for more comprehensive and MFCI-specific experimental tests is brought out. (author)

  12. A Theoretical Model for Meaning Construction through Constructivist Concept Learning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Badie, Farshad

    The central focus of this Ph.D. research is on ‘Logic and Cognition’ and, more specifically, this research covers the quintuple (Logic and Logical Philosophy, Philosophy of Education, Educational Psychology, Cognitive Science, Computer Science). The most significant contributions of this Ph...... of ‘learning’, ‘mentoring’, and ‘knowledge’ within learning and knowledge acquisition systems. Constructivism as an epistemology and as a model of knowing and, respectively as a theoretical model of learning builds up the central framework of this research....

  13. Information Theoretic Tools for Parameter Fitting in Coarse Grained Models

    KAUST Repository

    Kalligiannaki, Evangelia

    2015-01-07

    We study the application of information theoretic tools for model reduction in the case of systems driven by stochastic dynamics out of equilibrium. The model/dimension reduction is considered by proposing parametrized coarse grained dynamics and finding the optimal parameter set for which the relative entropy rate with respect to the atomistic dynamics is minimized. The minimization problem leads to a generalization of the force matching methods to non equilibrium systems. A multiplicative noise example reveals the importance of the diffusion coefficient in the optimization problem.

  14. Application of a theoretical model to evaluate COPD disease management

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    Background Disease management programmes are heterogeneous in nature and often lack a theoretical basis. An evaluation model has been developed in which theoretically driven inquiries link disease management interventions to outcomes. The aim of this study is to methodically evaluate the impact of a disease management programme for patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) on process, intermediate and final outcomes of care in a general practice setting. Methods A quasi-experimental research was performed with 12-months follow-up of 189 COPD patients in primary care in the Netherlands. The programme included patient education, protocolised assessment and treatment of COPD, structural follow-up and coordination by practice nurses at 3, 6 and 12 months. Data on intermediate outcomes (knowledge, psychosocial mediators, self-efficacy and behaviour) and final outcomes (dyspnoea, quality of life, measured by the CRQ and CCQ, and patient experiences) were obtained from questionnaires and electronic registries. Results Implementation of the programme was associated with significant improvements in dyspnoea (p theory-driven model enhances the design and evaluation of disease management programmes aimed at improving health outcomes. This study supports the notion that a theoretical approach strengthens the evaluation designs of complex interventions. Moreover, it provides prudent evidence that the implementation of COPD disease management programmes can positively influence outcomes of care. PMID:20346135

  15. Application of a theoretical model to evaluate COPD disease management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Asin Javier D

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Disease management programmes are heterogeneous in nature and often lack a theoretical basis. An evaluation model has been developed in which theoretically driven inquiries link disease management interventions to outcomes. The aim of this study is to methodically evaluate the impact of a disease management programme for patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD on process, intermediate and final outcomes of care in a general practice setting. Methods A quasi-experimental research was performed with 12-months follow-up of 189 COPD patients in primary care in the Netherlands. The programme included patient education, protocolised assessment and treatment of COPD, structural follow-up and coordination by practice nurses at 3, 6 and 12 months. Data on intermediate outcomes (knowledge, psychosocial mediators, self-efficacy and behaviour and final outcomes (dyspnoea, quality of life, measured by the CRQ and CCQ, and patient experiences were obtained from questionnaires and electronic registries. Results Implementation of the programme was associated with significant improvements in dyspnoea (p Conclusions The application of a theory-driven model enhances the design and evaluation of disease management programmes aimed at improving health outcomes. This study supports the notion that a theoretical approach strengthens the evaluation designs of complex interventions. Moreover, it provides prudent evidence that the implementation of COPD disease management programmes can positively influence outcomes of care.

  16. Application of a theoretical model to evaluate COPD disease management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lemmens, Karin M M; Nieboer, Anna P; Rutten-Van Mölken, Maureen P M H; van Schayck, Constant P; Asin, Javier D; Dirven, Jos A M; Huijsman, Robbert

    2010-03-26

    Disease management programmes are heterogeneous in nature and often lack a theoretical basis. An evaluation model has been developed in which theoretically driven inquiries link disease management interventions to outcomes. The aim of this study is to methodically evaluate the impact of a disease management programme for patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) on process, intermediate and final outcomes of care in a general practice setting. A quasi-experimental research was performed with 12-months follow-up of 189 COPD patients in primary care in the Netherlands. The programme included patient education, protocolised assessment and treatment of COPD, structural follow-up and coordination by practice nurses at 3, 6 and 12 months. Data on intermediate outcomes (knowledge, psychosocial mediators, self-efficacy and behaviour) and final outcomes (dyspnoea, quality of life, measured by the CRQ and CCQ, and patient experiences) were obtained from questionnaires and electronic registries. Implementation of the programme was associated with significant improvements in dyspnoea (p theory-driven model enhances the design and evaluation of disease management programmes aimed at improving health outcomes. This study supports the notion that a theoretical approach strengthens the evaluation designs of complex interventions. Moreover, it provides prudent evidence that the implementation of COPD disease management programmes can positively influence outcomes of care.

  17. Theoretical Modeling of Rock Breakage by Hydraulic and Mechanical Tool

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hongxiang Jiang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Rock breakage by coupled mechanical and hydraulic action has been developed over the past several decades, but theoretical study on rock fragmentation by mechanical tool with water pressure assistance was still lacking. The theoretical model of rock breakage by mechanical tool was developed based on the rock fracture mechanics and the solution of Boussinesq’s problem, and it could explain the process of rock fragmentation as well as predicating the peak reacting force. The theoretical model of rock breakage by coupled mechanical and hydraulic action was developed according to the superposition principle of intensity factors at the crack tip, and the reacting force of mechanical tool assisted by hydraulic action could be reduced obviously if the crack with a critical length could be produced by mechanical or hydraulic impact. The experimental results indicated that the peak reacting force could be reduced about 15% assisted by medium water pressure, and quick reduction of reacting force after peak value decreased the specific energy consumption of rock fragmentation by mechanical tool. The crack formation by mechanical or hydraulic impact was the prerequisite to improvement of the ability of combined breakage.

  18. Evaluating the Theoretic Adequacy and Applied Potential of Computational Models of the Spacing Effect.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walsh, Matthew M; Gluck, Kevin A; Gunzelmann, Glenn; Jastrzembski, Tiffany; Krusmark, Michael

    2018-03-02

    The spacing effect is among the most widely replicated empirical phenomena in the learning sciences, and its relevance to education and training is readily apparent. Yet successful applications of spacing effect research to education and training is rare. Computational modeling can provide the crucial link between a century of accumulated experimental data on the spacing effect and the emerging interest in using that research to enable adaptive instruction. In this paper, we review relevant literature and identify 10 criteria for rigorously evaluating computational models of the spacing effect. Five relate to evaluating the theoretic adequacy of a model, and five relate to evaluating its application potential. We use these criteria to evaluate a novel computational model of the spacing effect called the Predictive Performance Equation (PPE). Predictive Performance Equation combines elements of earlier models of learning and memory including the General Performance Equation, Adaptive Control of Thought-Rational, and the New Theory of Disuse, giving rise to a novel computational account of the spacing effect that performs favorably across the complete sets of theoretic and applied criteria. We implemented two other previously published computational models of the spacing effect and compare them to PPE using the theoretic and applied criteria as guides. © 2018 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

  19. What do saliency models predict?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koehler, Kathryn; Guo, Fei; Zhang, Sheng; Eckstein, Miguel P.

    2014-01-01

    Saliency models have been frequently used to predict eye movements made during image viewing without a specified task (free viewing). Use of a single image set to systematically compare free viewing to other tasks has never been performed. We investigated the effect of task differences on the ability of three models of saliency to predict the performance of humans viewing a novel database of 800 natural images. We introduced a novel task where 100 observers made explicit perceptual judgments about the most salient image region. Other groups of observers performed a free viewing task, saliency search task, or cued object search task. Behavior on the popular free viewing task was not best predicted by standard saliency models. Instead, the models most accurately predicted the explicit saliency selections and eye movements made while performing saliency judgments. Observers' fixations varied similarly across images for the saliency and free viewing tasks, suggesting that these two tasks are related. The variability of observers' eye movements was modulated by the task (lowest for the object search task and greatest for the free viewing and saliency search tasks) as well as the clutter content of the images. Eye movement variability in saliency search and free viewing might be also limited by inherent variation of what observers consider salient. Our results contribute to understanding the tasks and behavioral measures for which saliency models are best suited as predictors of human behavior, the relationship across various perceptual tasks, and the factors contributing to observer variability in fixational eye movements. PMID:24618107

  20. Patients’ Acceptance of Smartphone Health Technology for Chronic Disease Management: A Theoretical Model and Empirical Test

    OpenAIRE

    Dou, Kaili; Yu, Ping; Deng, Ning; Liu, Fang; Guan, YingPing; Li, Zhenye; Ji, Yumeng; Du, Ningkai; Lu, Xudong; Duan, Huilong

    2017-01-01

    Background Chronic disease patients often face multiple challenges from difficult comorbidities. Smartphone health technology can be used to help them manage their conditions only if they accept and use the technology. Objective The aim of this study was to develop and test a theoretical model to predict and explain the factors influencing patients’ acceptance of smartphone health technology for chronic disease management. Methods Multiple theories and factors that may influence patients’ acc...

  1. Theoretical models for Mars and their seismic properties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okal, E. A.; Anderson, D. L.

    1978-01-01

    Theoretical seismic properties of the planet Mars are investigated on the basis of the various models which have been proposed for the internal composition of the planet. The latest interpretation of gravity-field data, assuming a lower value of the moment of inertia, would require a less dense mantle and a larger core than previous models. If Mars is chondritic in composition, the most reasonable models are an incompletely differentiated H-chondrite or a mixture of H-chondrites and carbonaceous chondrites. Seismic profiles, travel times, and free oscillation periods are computed for various models, with the aim of establishing which seismic data is crucial for deciding among the alternatives. A detailed discussion is given of the seismic properties which could - in principle - help answer the questions of whether Mars' core is liquid or solid and whether Mars has a partially molten asthenosphere in its upper mantle.

  2. A Game-Theoretic Model for Distributed Programming by Contract

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Henriksen, Anders Starcke; Hvitved, Tom; Filinski, Andrzej

    2009-01-01

    We present an extension of the programming-by-contract (PBC) paradigm to a concurrent and distributed environment.  Classical PBC is characterized by absolute conformance of code to its specification, assigning blame in case of failures, and a hierarchical, cooperative decomposition model – none...... of which extend naturally to a distributed environment with multiple administrative peers. We therefore propose a more nuanced contract model based on quantifiable performance of implementations; assuming responsibility for success; and a fundamentally adversarial model of system integration, where each...... component provider is optimizing its behavior locally, with respect to potentially conflicting demands.  This model gives rise to a game-theoretic formulation of contract-governed process interactions that supports compositional reasoning about contract conformance....

  3. Theoretical pKa prediction of the α-phosphate moiety of uridine 5‧-diphosphate-GlcNAc

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vipperla, Bhavaniprasad; Griffiths, Thomas M.; Wang, Xingyong; Yu, Haibo

    2017-01-01

    The pKa value of the α-phosphate moiety of uridine 5‧-diphosphate-GlcNAc (UDP-GlcNAc) has been successfully calculated using density functional theory methods in conjunction with the Polarizable Continuum Models. Theoretical methods were benchmarked over a dataset comprising of alkyl phosphates. B3LYP/6-31+G(d,p) calculations using SMD solvation model provide excellent agreement with the experimental data. The predicted pKa for UDP-GlcNAc is consistent with most recent NMR studies but much higher than what it has long been thought to be. The importance of this study is evident that the predicted pKa for UDP-GlcNAc supports its potential role as a catalytic base in the substrate-assisted biocatalysis.

  4. Prediction of the dollar to the ruble rate. A system-theoretic approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borodachev, Sergey M.

    2017-07-01

    Proposed a simple state-space model of dollar rate formation based on changes in oil prices and some mechanisms of money transfer between monetary and stock markets. Comparison of predictions by means of input-output model and state-space model is made. It concludes that with proper use of statistical data (Kalman filter) the second approach provides more adequate predictions of the dollar rate.

  5. Improving statistical reasoning theoretical models and practical implications

    CERN Document Server

    Sedlmeier, Peter

    1999-01-01

    This book focuses on how statistical reasoning works and on training programs that can exploit people''s natural cognitive capabilities to improve their statistical reasoning. Training programs that take into account findings from evolutionary psychology and instructional theory are shown to have substantially larger effects that are more stable over time than previous training regimens. The theoretical implications are traced in a neural network model of human performance on statistical reasoning problems. This book apppeals to judgment and decision making researchers and other cognitive scientists, as well as to teachers of statistics and probabilistic reasoning.

  6. A theoretical Markov chain model for evaluating correctional ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In this paper a stochastic method is applied in the study of the long time effect of confinement in a correctional institution on the behaviour of a person with criminal tendencies. The approach used is Markov chain, which uses past history to predict the state of a system in the future. A model is developed for comparing the ...

  7. An Emerging Theoretical Model of Music Therapy Student Development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dvorak, Abbey L; Hernandez-Ruiz, Eugenia; Jang, Sekyung; Kim, Borin; Joseph, Megan; Wells, Kori E

    2017-07-01

    Music therapy students negotiate a complex relationship with music and its use in clinical work throughout their education and training. This distinct, pervasive, and evolving relationship suggests a developmental process unique to music therapy. The purpose of this grounded theory study was to create a theoretical model of music therapy students' developmental process, beginning with a study within one large Midwestern university. Participants (N = 15) were music therapy students who completed one 60-minute intensive interview, followed by a 20-minute member check meeting. Recorded interviews were transcribed, analyzed, and coded using open and axial coding. The theoretical model that emerged was a six-step sequential developmental progression that included the following themes: (a) Personal Connection, (b) Turning Point, (c) Adjusting Relationship with Music, (d) Growth and Development, (e) Evolution, and (f) Empowerment. The first three steps are linear; development continues in a cyclical process among the last three steps. As the cycle continues, music therapy students continue to grow and develop their skills, leading to increased empowerment, and more specifically, increased self-efficacy and competence. Further exploration of the model is needed to inform educators' and other key stakeholders' understanding of student needs and concerns as they progress through music therapy degree programs. © the American Music Therapy Association 2017. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com

  8. The theoretical aspects of UrQMD & AMPT models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Saini, Abhilasha, E-mail: kashvini.abhi@gmail.com [Research Scholar, Department of Physics, Suresh Gyan vihar University, Jaipur (India); Bhardwaj, Sudhir, E-mail: sudhir.hep@gmail.com [Assistant professor, Govt. College of Engineering & Technology, Bikaner (India)

    2016-05-06

    The field of high energy physics is very challenging in carrying out theories and experiments to unlock the secrets of heavy ion collisions and still not cracked and solved completely. There are many theoretical queries; some may be due to the inherent causes like the non-perturbative nature of QCD in the strong coupling limit, also due to the multi-particle production and evolution during the heavy ion collisions which increase the complexity of the phenomena. So for the purpose of understanding the phenomena, variety of theories and ideas are developed which are usually implied in the form of Monte-Carlo codes. The UrQMD model and the AMPT model are discussed here in detail. These methods are useful in modeling the nuclear collisions.

  9. Three General Theoretical Models in Sociology: An Articulated ?(Disunity?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thaís García-Pereiro

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available After merely a brief, comparative reconstruction of the three most general theoretical models underlying contemporary Sociology (atomic, systemic, and fluid it becomes necessary to review the question about the unity or plurality of Sociology, which is the main objective of this paper. To do so, the basic terms of the question are firstly updated by following the hegemonic trends in current studies of science. Secondly the convergences and divergences among the three models discussed are shown. Following some additional discussion, the conclusion is reached that contemporary Sociology is not unitary, and need not be so. It is plural, but its plurality is limited and articulated by those very models. It may therefore be portrayed as integrated and commensurable, to the extent that a partial and unstable (disunity may be said to exist in Sociology, which is not too far off from what happens in the natural sciences.

  10. Physics of human cooperation: experimental evidence and theoretical models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sánchez, Angel

    2018-02-01

    In recent years, many physicists have used evolutionary game theory combined with a complex systems perspective in an attempt to understand social phenomena and challenges. Prominent among such phenomena is the issue of the emergence and sustainability of cooperation in a networked world of selfish or self-focused individuals. The vast majority of research done by physicists on these questions is theoretical, and is almost always posed in terms of agent-based models. Unfortunately, more often than not such models ignore a number of facts that are well established experimentally, and are thus rendered irrelevant to actual social applications. I here summarize some of the facts that any realistic model should incorporate and take into account, discuss important aspects underlying the relation between theory and experiments, and discuss future directions for research based on the available experimental knowledge.

  11. Basic Modelling principles and Validation of Software for Prediction of Collision Damage

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Simonsen, Bo Cerup

    2000-01-01

    This report describes basic modelling principles, the theoretical background and validation examples for the collision damage prediction module in the ISESO stand-alone software.......This report describes basic modelling principles, the theoretical background and validation examples for the collision damage prediction module in the ISESO stand-alone software....

  12. Graph theoretical model of a sensorimotor connectome in zebrafish.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Stobb

    Full Text Available Mapping the detailed connectivity patterns (connectomes of neural circuits is a central goal of neuroscience. The best quantitative approach to analyzing connectome data is still unclear but graph theory has been used with success. We present a graph theoretical model of the posterior lateral line sensorimotor pathway in zebrafish. The model includes 2,616 neurons and 167,114 synaptic connections. Model neurons represent known cell types in zebrafish larvae, and connections were set stochastically following rules based on biological literature. Thus, our model is a uniquely detailed computational representation of a vertebrate connectome. The connectome has low overall connection density, with 2.45% of all possible connections, a value within the physiological range. We used graph theoretical tools to compare the zebrafish connectome graph to small-world, random and structured random graphs of the same size. For each type of graph, 100 randomly generated instantiations were considered. Degree distribution (the number of connections per neuron varied more in the zebrafish graph than in same size graphs with less biological detail. There was high local clustering and a short average path length between nodes, implying a small-world structure similar to other neural connectomes and complex networks. The graph was found not to be scale-free, in agreement with some other neural connectomes. An experimental lesion was performed that targeted three model brain neurons, including the Mauthner neuron, known to control fast escape turns. The lesion decreased the number of short paths between sensory and motor neurons analogous to the behavioral effects of the same lesion in zebrafish. This model is expandable and can be used to organize and interpret a growing database of information on the zebrafish connectome.

  13. Theoretical model of intravascular paramagnetic tracers effect on tissue relaxation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kjølby, Birgitte Fuglsang; Østergaard, Leif; Kiselev, Valerij G

    2006-01-01

    The concentration of MRI tracers cannot be measured directly by MRI and is commonly evaluated indirectly using their relaxation effect. This study develops a comprehensive theoretical model to describe the transverse relaxation in perfused tissue caused by intravascular tracers. The model takes...... into account a number of individual compartments. The signal dephasing is simulated in a semianalytical way by embedding Monte Carlo simulations in the framework of analytical theory. This approach yields a tool for fast, realistic simulation of the change in the transverse relaxation. The results indicate...... with bulk blood. The enhancement of relaxation in tissue is due to the contrast in magnetic susceptibility between blood vessels and parenchyma induced by the presence of paramagnetic tracer. Beyond the perfusion measurements, the results can be applied to quantitation of functional MRI and to vessel size...

  14. Binding site graphs: a new graph theoretical framework for prediction of transcription factor binding sites.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Timothy E Reddy

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available Computational prediction of nucleotide binding specificity for transcription factors remains a fundamental and largely unsolved problem. Determination of binding positions is a prerequisite for research in gene regulation, a major mechanism controlling phenotypic diversity. Furthermore, an accurate determination of binding specificities from high-throughput data sources is necessary to realize the full potential of systems biology. Unfortunately, recently performed independent evaluation showed that more than half the predictions from most widely used algorithms are false. We introduce a graph-theoretical framework to describe local sequence similarity as the pair-wise distances between nucleotides in promoter sequences, and hypothesize that densely connected subgraphs are indicative of transcription factor binding sites. Using a well-established sampling algorithm coupled with simple clustering and scoring schemes, we identify sets of closely related nucleotides and test those for known TF binding activity. Using an independent benchmark, we find our algorithm predicts yeast binding motifs considerably better than currently available techniques and without manual curation. Importantly, we reduce the number of false positive predictions in yeast to less than 30%. We also develop a framework to evaluate the statistical significance of our motif predictions. We show that our approach is robust to the choice of input promoters, and thus can be used in the context of predicting binding positions from noisy experimental data. We apply our method to identify binding sites using data from genome scale ChIP-chip experiments. Results from these experiments are publicly available at http://cagt10.bu.edu/BSG. The graphical framework developed here may be useful when combining predictions from numerous computational and experimental measures. Finally, we discuss how our algorithm can be used to improve the sensitivity of computational predictions of

  15. Bridging the gap between theoretical ecology and real ecosystems: modeling invertebrate community composition in streams.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schuwirth, Nele; Reichert, Peter

    2013-02-01

    For the first time, we combine concepts of theoretical food web modeling, the metabolic theory of ecology, and ecological stoichiometry with the use of functional trait databases to predict the coexistence of invertebrate taxa in streams. We developed a mechanistic model that describes growth, death, and respiration of different taxa dependent on various environmental influence factors to estimate survival or extinction. Parameter and input uncertainty is propagated to model results. Such a model is needed to test our current quantitative understanding of ecosystem structure and function and to predict effects of anthropogenic impacts and restoration efforts. The model was tested using macroinvertebrate monitoring data from a catchment of the Swiss Plateau. Even without fitting model parameters, the model is able to represent key patterns of the coexistence structure of invertebrates at sites varying in external conditions (litter input, shading, water quality). This confirms the suitability of the model concept. More comprehensive testing and resulting model adaptations will further increase the predictive accuracy of the model.

  16. Theoretical approaches for predicting the color of rigid dyes in solution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Tommaso, Stefania; Bousquet, Diane; Moulin, Delphine; Baltenneck, Frédéric; Riva, Priscilla; David, Hervé; Fadli, Aziz; Gomar, Jérôme; Ciofini, Ilaria; Adamo, Carlo

    2017-05-15

    Aiming at developing an affordable and easily implementable computational protocol for routine prediction of spectral properties of rigid molecular dyes, density functional theory, and time-dependent density functional theory were used in conjunction with a vibronic coupling scheme for band shape estimate. To predict the perceived color of molecules in solution, a model has been setup linking the UV-vis spectra predicted at ab initio level to the L*a*b* colorimetric parameters. The results show that a mixed protocol, implying the use of a global hybrid functional for the prediction of adiabatic energy differences and a range separated hybrid for the prediction of potential energy curvature, allows perceived colors to be quantitatively predicted, as demonstrated by the comparison of L*a*b* colorimetric parameters obtained from computed and experimental spectra. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  17. Theoretical study (Lagrangian modeling) of turbulent particulate dispersion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berlemont, A.; Grancher, M. S.; Desjonqueres, P.

    A study aimed at improving the prediction and knowledge of two phase phenomena in a turbomachine is presented. A code to three dimensionally simulate particle dispersion, taking account of turbulent droplet evaporation, and which can be easily integrated into the DIAMANT code, is developed. Lagrangian modeling of particle dispersion is used. The influence of turbulence on evaporation appears to be non-negligible and must therefore be taken into account in droplet turbulent transfer problems.

  18. Hybrid empirical--theoretical approach to modeling uranium adsorption

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hull, Larry C.; Grossman, Christopher; Fjeld, Robert A.; Coates, John T.; Elzerman, Alan W

    2004-05-01

    An estimated 330 metric tons of U are buried in the radioactive waste Subsurface Disposal Area (SDA) at the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL). An assessment of U transport parameters is being performed to decrease the uncertainty in risk and dose predictions derived from computer simulations of U fate and transport to the underlying Snake River Plain Aquifer. Uranium adsorption isotherms were measured for 14 sediment samples collected from sedimentary interbeds underlying the SDA. The adsorption data were fit with a Freundlich isotherm. The Freundlich n parameter is statistically identical for all 14 sediment samples and the Freundlich K{sub f} parameter is correlated to sediment surface area (r{sup 2}=0.80). These findings suggest an efficient approach to material characterization and implementation of a spatially variable reactive transport model that requires only the measurement of sediment surface area. To expand the potential applicability of the measured isotherms, a model is derived from the empirical observations by incorporating concepts from surface complexation theory to account for the effects of solution chemistry. The resulting model is then used to predict the range of adsorption conditions to be expected in the vadose zone at the SDA based on the range in measured pore water chemistry. Adsorption in the deep vadose zone is predicted to be stronger than in near-surface sediments because the total dissolved carbonate decreases with depth.

  19. Hybrid empirical--theoretical approach to modeling uranium adsorption

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hull, Larry C.; Grossman, Christopher; Fjeld, Robert A.; Coates, John T.; Elzerman, Alan W.

    2004-01-01

    An estimated 330 metric tons of U are buried in the radioactive waste Subsurface Disposal Area (SDA) at the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory (INEEL). An assessment of U transport parameters is being performed to decrease the uncertainty in risk and dose predictions derived from computer simulations of U fate and transport to the underlying Snake River Plain Aquifer. Uranium adsorption isotherms were measured for 14 sediment samples collected from sedimentary interbeds underlying the SDA. The adsorption data were fit with a Freundlich isotherm. The Freundlich n parameter is statistically identical for all 14 sediment samples and the Freundlich K f parameter is correlated to sediment surface area (r 2 =0.80). These findings suggest an efficient approach to material characterization and implementation of a spatially variable reactive transport model that requires only the measurement of sediment surface area. To expand the potential applicability of the measured isotherms, a model is derived from the empirical observations by incorporating concepts from surface complexation theory to account for the effects of solution chemistry. The resulting model is then used to predict the range of adsorption conditions to be expected in the vadose zone at the SDA based on the range in measured pore water chemistry. Adsorption in the deep vadose zone is predicted to be stronger than in near-surface sediments because the total dissolved carbonate decreases with depth

  20. Thermal conductivity of molten salt mixtures: Theoretical model supported by equilibrium molecular dynamics simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gheribi, Aïmen E.; Chartrand, Patrice

    2016-02-01

    A theoretical model for the description of thermal conductivity of molten salt mixtures as a function of composition and temperature is presented. The model is derived by considering the classical kinetic theory and requires, for its parametrization, only information on thermal conductivity of pure compounds. In this sense, the model is predictive. For most molten salt mixtures, no experimental data on thermal conductivity are available in the literature. This is a hindrance for many industrial applications (in particular for thermal energy storage technologies) as well as an obvious barrier for the validation of the theoretical model. To alleviate this lack of data, a series of equilibrium molecular dynamics (EMD) simulations has been performed on several molten chloride systems in order to determine their thermal conductivity in the entire range of composition at two different temperatures: 1200 K and 1300 K. The EMD simulations are first principles type, as the potentials used to describe the interactions have been parametrized on the basis of first principle electronic structure calculations. In addition to the molten chlorides system, the model predictions are also compared to a recent similar EMD study on molten fluorides and with the few reliable experimental data available in the literature. The accuracy of the proposed model is within the reported numerical and/or experimental errors.

  1. Thermal conductivity of molten salt mixtures: Theoretical model supported by equilibrium molecular dynamics simulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gheribi, Aïmen E; Chartrand, Patrice

    2016-02-28

    A theoretical model for the description of thermal conductivity of molten salt mixtures as a function of composition and temperature is presented. The model is derived by considering the classical kinetic theory and requires, for its parametrization, only information on thermal conductivity of pure compounds. In this sense, the model is predictive. For most molten salt mixtures, no experimental data on thermal conductivity are available in the literature. This is a hindrance for many industrial applications (in particular for thermal energy storage technologies) as well as an obvious barrier for the validation of the theoretical model. To alleviate this lack of data, a series of equilibrium molecular dynamics (EMD) simulations has been performed on several molten chloride systems in order to determine their thermal conductivity in the entire range of composition at two different temperatures: 1200 K and 1300 K. The EMD simulations are first principles type, as the potentials used to describe the interactions have been parametrized on the basis of first principle electronic structure calculations. In addition to the molten chlorides system, the model predictions are also compared to a recent similar EMD study on molten fluorides and with the few reliable experimental data available in the literature. The accuracy of the proposed model is within the reported numerical and/or experimental errors.

  2. Information-Theoretic Measures Predict the Human Judgment of Rhythm Complexity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Fleurian, Remi; Blackwell, Tim; Ben-Tal, Oded; Müllensiefen, Daniel

    2017-04-01

    To formalize the human judgment of rhythm complexity, we used five measures from information theory and algorithmic complexity to measure the complexity of 48 artificially generated rhythmic sequences. We compared these measurements to human prediction accuracy and easiness judgments obtained from a listening experiment, in which 32 participants guessed the last beat of each sequence. We also investigated the modulating effects of musical expertise and general pattern identification ability. Entropy rate and Kolmogorov complexity were correlated with prediction accuracy, and highly correlated with easiness judgments. A logistic regression showed main effects of musical training, entropy rate, and Kolmogorov complexity, and an interaction between musical training and both entropy rate and Kolmogorov complexity. These results indicate that information-theoretic concepts capture some salient features of the human judgment of rhythm complexity, and they confirm the influence of musical expertise on complexity judgments. Copyright © 2016 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

  3. Probing the CuO planes with positrons in high Tc cuprates: theoretical predictions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barbiellini, B.; Jarlborg, T.; Massidda, S.; Peter, M.

    1995-01-01

    Positron annihilation spectroscopy is a useful tool to investigate the Fermi surface in high T c superconductors. To study the physics of the copper-oxygen subsystem that forms the Cu-O layers, it is important to provide theoretical predictions, on materials where there is a large overlap between the positron and the interesting Cu-O planes. We have performed first-principle electronic structure calculations obtained using the linear muffin-tin orbital and the full-potential linearized augmented plane wave methods. The positron charge distributions and their sensitivity to different potentials are calculated. Secondly, we have computed the annihilation rates and the electron-positron momentum density in order to give predictions of the Fermi surface signals. (orig.)

  4. Theoretical prediction of familial amyotrophic lateral sclerosis missense mutation effects on Cu/Zn superoxide dismutase structural stability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Potier, M.; Tu, Y. [Universite de Montreal, Quebec (Canada)

    1994-09-01

    Cu/Zn superoxide dismutase (SOD) deficiency is associated with the progressive paralytic disorder familial amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (FALS). Fifteen missense mutations in the SOD gene were identified in several patients. These mutations may prevent correct promoter folding or hamper homodimer formation necessary for SOD activity. To understand the effect of the missense mutations on SOD structure and function, we used a theoretical analysis of structural effects based on two predictive methods using the modeled tertiary structure of human SOD. The first method uses the TORSO program which optimizes amino acid side-chains repacking in both wild-type and mutant SODs and calculates protein internal packing energy. The second method uses a hydrophobicity scale of the amino acid residues and considers both solvent accessibility and hydrophobic nature of residue substitutions to compute a stabilization energy change ({delta}E). These predictive methods have been tested in 187 single and multiple missense mutants of 8 proteins (T4 lysozyme, human carbonic anhydrase II, chymotrypsin inhibitor 2, f1 gene V protein, barnase, {lambda}-repressor, chicken and human lysozymes) with experimentally determined thermostability. The overall prediction accuracy with these proteins was 88%. Analysis of FALS missense mutations {delta}E predicts that 14 of 15 mutations destabilize the SOD structure. The other missense mutation is located at the homodimer interface and may hinder dimer formation. This approach is applicable to any protein with known tertiary structure to predict missense mutation effects on protein stability.

  5. Theoretical Models of Deliberative Democracy: A Critical Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tutui Viorel

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract: My paper focuses on presenting and analyzing some of the most important theoretical models of deliberative democracy and to emphasize their limits. Firstly, I will mention James Fishkin‟s account of deliberative democracy and its relations with other democratic models. He differentiates between four democratic theories: competitive democracy, elite deliberation, participatory democracy and deliberative democracy. Each of these theories makes an explicit commitment to two of the following four “principles”: political equality, participation, deliberation, nontyranny. Deliberative democracy is committed to political equality and deliberation. Secondly, I will present Philip Pettit‟s view concerning the main constraints of deliberative democracy: the inclusion constraint, the judgmental constraint and the dialogical constraint. Thirdly, I will refer to Amy Gutmann and Dennis Thompson‟s conception regarding the “requirements” or characteristics of deliberative democracy: the reason-giving requirement, the accessibility of reasons, the binding character of the decisions and the dynamic nature of the deliberative process. Finally, I will discuss Joshua Cohen‟s “ideal deliberative procedure” which has the following features: it is free, reasoned, the parties are substantively equal and the procedure aims to arrive at rationally motivated consensus. After presenting these models I will provide a critical analysis of each one of them with the purpose of revealing their virtues and limits. I will make some suggestions in order to combine the virtues of these models, to transcend their limitations and to offer a more systematical account of deliberative democracy. In the next four sections I will take into consideration four main strategies for combining political and epistemic values (“optimistic”, “deliberative”, “democratic” and “pragmatic” and the main objections they have to face. In the concluding section

  6. Activity systems modeling as a theoretical lens for social exchange studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ernest Jones

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The social exchange perspective seeks to acknowledge, understand and predict the dynamics of social interactions. Empirical research involving social exchange constructs have grown to be highly technical including confirmatory factor analysis to assess construct distinctiveness and structural equation modeling to assess construct causality. Each study seemingly strives to assess how underlying social exchange theoretic constructs interrelate. Yet despite this methodological depth and resultant explanatory and predictive power, a significant number of studies report findings that, once synthesized, suggest an underlying persistent threat of conceptual or construct validity brought about by a search for epistemological parsimony. Further, it is argued that a methodological approach that embraces inherent complexity such as activity systems modeling facilitates the search for simplified models while not ignoring contextual factors.

  7. A survey of game-theoretic models of cooperative advertising

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Steffen; Zaccour, G.

    2014-01-01

    The paper surveys the literature on cooperative advertising in marketing channels (supply chains) using game theoretic methods. During the last decade, in particular, this literature has expanded considerably and has studied static as well as dynamic settings. The survey is divided into two main...... parts. The first one deals with simple marketing channels having one supplier and one reseller only. The second one covers marketing channels of a more complex structure, having more than one supplier and/or reseller. In the first part we find that a number of results carry over from static to dynamic...... problems of cooperative advertising also shows some similarities. The second part shows that models incorporating horizontal interaction on either or both layers of the supply chain are much less numerous than those supposing its absence. Participation rates in co-op advertising programs depend on inter...

  8. Spatial Segregation, Redistribution and Welfare: A Theoretical Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tommaso Gabrieli

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper develops a theoretical model focusing on the effect that different neighborhood compositions can have on the formation of individual beliefs about economic opportunities. Specifically we highlight two effects that spatial segregation may have: (1 it can efficiently separate the individual effort choices of highly and low productive individuals, (2 it may imply that the median voter imposes a level of redistribution that is inefficient from the aggregate point of view. The trade-off implies that segregated and non-segregated cities may present very similar levels of aggregate welfare. We employ this framework to discuss how the structure of cities can play a role in the determination of US-type and Europe-type politico-economic equilibria and the implications for planning policies.

  9. Predictions for mt and MW in minimal supersymmetric models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buchmueller, O.; Ellis, J.R.; Flaecher, H.; Isidori, G.

    2009-12-01

    Using a frequentist analysis of experimental constraints within two versions of the minimal supersymmetric extension of the Standard Model, we derive the predictions for the top quark mass, m t , and the W boson mass, m W . We find that the supersymmetric predictions for both m t and m W , obtained by incorporating all the relevant experimental information and state-of-the-art theoretical predictions, are highly compatible with the experimental values with small remaining uncertainties, yielding an improvement compared to the case of the Standard Model. (orig.)

  10. A theoretical intellectual capital model applied to cities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Luis Alfaro Navarro

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available New Management Information Systems (MIS are necessary at local level as the main source of wealth creation. Therefore, tools and approaches that provide a full future vision of any organization should be a strategic priority for economic development. In this line, cities are “centers of knowledge and sources of growth and innovation” and integrated urban development policies are necessary. These policies support communication networks and optimize location structures as strategies that provide opportunities for social and democratic participation for the citizens. This paper proposes a theoretical model to measure and evaluate the cities intellectual capital that allows determine what we must take into account to make cities a source of wealth, prosperity, welfare and future growth. Furthermore, local intellectual capital provides a long run vision. Thus, in this paper we develop and explain how to implement a model to estimate intellectual capital in cities. In this sense, our proposal is to provide a model for measuring and managing intellectual capital using socio-economic indicators for cities. These indicators offer a long term picture supported by a comprehensive strategy for those who occupy the local space, infrastructure for implementation and management of the environment for its development.

  11. Modeling opinion dynamics: Theoretical analysis and continuous approximation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pinasco, Juan Pablo; Semeshenko, Viktoriya; Balenzuela, Pablo

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • We study a simple model of persuasion dynamics with long range pairwise interactions. • The continuous limit of the master equation is a nonlinear, nonlocal, first order partial differential equation. • We compute the analytical solutions to this equation, and compare them with the simulations of the dynamics. - Abstract: Frequently we revise our first opinions after talking over with other individuals because we get convinced. Argumentation is a verbal and social process aimed at convincing. It includes conversation and persuasion and the agreement is reached because the new arguments are incorporated. Given the wide range of opinion formation mathematical approaches, there are however no models of opinion dynamics with nonlocal pair interactions analytically solvable. In this paper we present a novel analytical framework developed to solve the master equations with non-local kernels. For this we used a simple model of opinion formation where individuals tend to get more similar after each interactions, no matter their opinion differences, giving rise to nonlinear differential master equation with non-local terms. Simulation results show an excellent agreement with results obtained by the theoretical estimation.

  12. Adulthood Social Class and Union Interest: A First Test of a Theoretical Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mellor, Steven

    2016-10-02

    A serial mediation model of union interest was tested. Based on theoretical notes provided by Mellor and Golay (in press), adulthood social class was positioned as a predictor of willingness to join a labor union, with success/failure attributions at work and willingness to share work goals positioned as intervening variables. Data from U.S. nonunion employees (N = 560) suggested full mediation after effects were adjusted for childhood social class. In sequence, adulthood social class predicted success/failure attributions at work, success/failure attributions at work predicted willingness to share work goals, and willingness to share work goals predicted willingness to join. Implications for socioeconomic status (SES) research and union expansion are discussed.

  13. Theoretical Prediction of Melting Relations in the Deep Mantle: the Phase Diagram Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belmonte, D.; Ottonello, G. A.; Vetuschi Zuccolini, M.; Attene, M.

    2016-12-01

    Despite the outstanding progress in computer technology and experimental facilities, understanding melting phase relations in the deep mantle is still an open challenge. In this work a novel computational scheme to predict melting relations at HP-HT by a combination of first principles DFT calculations, polymer chemistry and equilibrium thermodynamics is presented and discussed. The adopted theoretical framework is physically-consistent and allows to compute multi-component phase diagrams relevant to Earth's deep interior in a broad range of P-T conditions by a convex-hull algorithm for Gibbs free energy minimisation purposely developed for high-rank simplexes. The calculated phase diagrams are in turn used as a source of information to gain new insights on the P-T-X evolution of magmas in the deep mantle, providing some thermodynamic constraints to both present-day and early Earth melting processes. High-pressure melting curves of mantle silicates are also obtained as by-product of phase diagram calculation. Application of the above method to the MgO-Al2O3-SiO2 (MAS) ternary system highlights as pressure effects are not only able to change the nature of melting of some minerals (like olivine and pyroxene) from eutectic to peritectic (and vice versa), but also simplify melting relations by drastically reducing the number of phases with a primary phase field at HP-HT conditions. It turns out that mineral phases like Majorite-Pyrope garnet and Anhydrous Phase B (Mg14Si5O24), which are often disregarded in modelling melting processes of mantle assemblages, are stable phases at solidus or liquidus conditions in a P-T range compatible with the mantle transition zone (i.e. P = 16 - 23 GPa and T = 2200 - 2700 °C) when their thermodynamic and thermophysical properties are properly assessed. Financial support to the Senior Author (D.B.) during his stay as Invited Scientist at the Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris (IPGP, Paris) is warmly acknowledged.

  14. Patients' Acceptance of Smartphone Health Technology for Chronic Disease Management: A Theoretical Model and Empirical Test.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dou, Kaili; Yu, Ping; Deng, Ning; Liu, Fang; Guan, YingPing; Li, Zhenye; Ji, Yumeng; Du, Ningkai; Lu, Xudong; Duan, Huilong

    2017-12-06

    Chronic disease patients often face multiple challenges from difficult comorbidities. Smartphone health technology can be used to help them manage their conditions only if they accept and use the technology. The aim of this study was to develop and test a theoretical model to predict and explain the factors influencing patients' acceptance of smartphone health technology for chronic disease management. Multiple theories and factors that may influence patients' acceptance of smartphone health technology have been reviewed. A hybrid theoretical model was built based on the technology acceptance model, dual-factor model, health belief model, and the factors identified from interviews that might influence patients' acceptance of smartphone health technology for chronic disease management. Data were collected from patient questionnaire surveys and computer log records about 157 hypertensive patients' actual use of a smartphone health app. The partial least square method was used to test the theoretical model. The model accounted for .412 of the variance in patients' intention to adopt the smartphone health technology. Intention to use accounted for .111 of the variance in actual use and had a significant weak relationship with the latter. Perceived ease of use was affected by patients' smartphone usage experience, relationship with doctor, and self-efficacy. Although without a significant effect on intention to use, perceived ease of use had a significant positive influence on perceived usefulness. Relationship with doctor and perceived health threat had significant positive effects on perceived usefulness, countering the negative influence of resistance to change. Perceived usefulness, perceived health threat, and resistance to change significantly predicted patients' intentions to use the technology. Age and gender had no significant influence on patients' acceptance of smartphone technology. The study also confirmed the positive relationship between intention to use

  15. Modeling of air-gap membrane distillation process: A theoretical and experimental study

    KAUST Repository

    Alsaadi, Ahmad Salem

    2013-06-03

    A one dimensional (1-D) air gap membrane distillation (AGMD) model for flat sheet type modules has been developed. This model is based on mathematical equations that describe the heat and mass transfer mechanisms of a single-stage AGMD process. It can simulate AGMD modules in both co-current and counter-current flow regimes. The theoretical model was validated using AGMD experimental data obtained under different operating conditions and parameters. The predicted water vapor flux was compared to the flux measured at five different feed water temperatures, two different feed water salinities, three different air gap widths and two MD membranes with different average pore sizes. This comparison showed that the model flux predictions are strongly correlated with the experimental data, with model predictions being within +10% of the experimentally determined values. The model was then used to study and analyze the parameters that have significant effect on scaling-up the AGMD process such as the effect of increasing the membrane length, and feed and coolant flow rates. The model was also used to analyze the maximum thermal efficiency of the AGMD process by tracing changes in water production rate and the heat input to the process along the membrane length. This was used to understand the gain in both process production and thermal efficiency for different membrane surface areas and the resultant increases in process capital and water unit cost. © 2013 Elsevier B.V.

  16. A theoretical model for the Lorentz force particle analyzer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreau, René; Tao, Zhen; Wang, Xiaodong

    2016-07-01

    In a previous paper [X. Wang et al., J. Appl. Phys. 120, 014903 (2016)], several experimental devices have been presented, which demonstrate the efficiency of electromagnetic techniques for detecting and sizing electrically insulating particles entrained in the flow of a molten metal. In each case, a non-uniform magnetic field is applied across the flow of the electrically conducting liquid, thereby generating a braking Lorentz force on this moving medium and a reaction force on the magnet, which tends to be entrained in the flow direction. The purpose of this letter is to derive scaling laws for this Lorentz force from an elementary theoretical model. For simplicity, as in the experiments, the flowing liquid is modeled as a solid body moving with a uniform velocity U. The eddy currents in the moving domain are derived from the classic induction equation and Ohm's law, and expressions for the Lorentz force density j ×B and for its integral over the entire moving domain follow. The insulating particles that are eventually present and entrained with this body are then treated as small disturbances in a classic perturbation analysis, thereby leading to scaling laws for the pulses they generate in the Lorentz force. The purpose of this letter is both to illustrate the eddy currents without and with insulating particles in the electrically conducting liquid and to derive a key relation between the pulses in the Lorentz force and the main parameters (particle volume and dimensions of the region subjected to the magnetic field).

  17. posttraumatic stress disorder: a theoretical model of the hyperarousal subtype

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charles Stewart Weston

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD is a frequent and distressing mental disorder, about which much remains to be learned. It is a heterogeneous disorder; the hyperarousal subtype (about 70% of occurrences and simply termed PTSD in this paper is the topic of this article, but the dissociative subtype (about 30% of occurrences and likely involving quite different brain mechanisms is outside its scope. A theoretical model is presented that integrates neuroscience data on diverse brain regions known to be involved in PTSD, and extensive psychiatric findings on the disorder. Specifically, the amygdala is a multifunctional brain region that is crucial to PTSD, and processes peritraumatic hyperarousal on grounded cognition principles to produce hyperarousal symptoms. Amygdala activity also modulates hippocampal function, which is supported by a large body of evidence, and likewise amygdala activity modulates several brainstem regions, visual cortex, rostral anterior cingulate cortex (rACC, and medial orbitofrontal cortex (mOFC, to produce diverse startle, visual, memory, numbing, anger, and recklessness symptoms. Additional brain regions process other aspects of peritraumatic responses to produce further symptoms. These contentions are supported by neuroimaging, neuropsychological, neuroanatomical, physiological, cognitive, and behavioral evidence. Collectively, the model offers an account of how responses at the time of trauma are transformed into an extensive array of the 20 PTSD symptoms that are specified in the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, 5th edition. It elucidates the neural mechanisms of a specific form of psychopathology, and accords with the Research Domain Criteria framework

  18. Strengthening Theoretical Testing in Criminology Using Agent-based Modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Shane D; Groff, Elizabeth R

    2014-07-01

    The Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency ( JRCD ) has published important contributions to both criminological theory and associated empirical tests. In this article, we consider some of the challenges associated with traditional approaches to social science research, and discuss a complementary approach that is gaining popularity-agent-based computational modeling-that may offer new opportunities to strengthen theories of crime and develop insights into phenomena of interest. Two literature reviews are completed. The aim of the first is to identify those articles published in JRCD that have been the most influential and to classify the theoretical perspectives taken. The second is intended to identify those studies that have used an agent-based model (ABM) to examine criminological theories and to identify which theories have been explored. Ecological theories of crime pattern formation have received the most attention from researchers using ABMs, but many other criminological theories are amenable to testing using such methods. Traditional methods of theory development and testing suffer from a number of potential issues that a more systematic use of ABMs-not without its own issues-may help to overcome. ABMs should become another method in the criminologists toolbox to aid theory testing and falsification.

  19. Experimental Investigation and Theoretical Modeling of Nanosilica Activity in Concrete

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Han-Seung Lee

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents experimental investigations and theoretical modeling of the hydration reaction of nanosilica blended concrete with different water-to-binder ratios and different nanosilica replacement ratios. The developments of chemically bound water contents, calcium hydroxide contents, and compressive strength of Portland cement control specimens and nanosilica blended specimens were measured at different ages: 1 day, 3 days, 7 days, 14 days, and 28 days. Due to the pozzolanic reaction of nanosilica, the contents of calcium hydroxide in nanosilica blended pastes are considerably lower than those in the control specimens. Compared with the control specimens, the extent of compressive strength enhancement in the nanosilica blended specimens is much higher at early ages. Additionally, a blended cement hydration model that considers both the hydration reaction of cement and the pozzolanic reaction of nanosilica is proposed. The properties of nanosilica blended concrete during hardening were evaluated using the degree of hydration of cement and the reaction degree of nanosilica. The calculated chemically bound water contents, calcium hydroxide contents, and compressive strength were generally consistent with the experimental results.

  20. Theoretical Modelling Methods for Thermal Management of Batteries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bahman Shabani

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The main challenge associated with renewable energy generation is the intermittency of the renewable source of power. Because of this, back-up generation sources fuelled by fossil fuels are required. In stationary applications whether it is a back-up diesel generator or connection to the grid, these systems are yet to be truly emissions-free. One solution to the problem is the utilisation of electrochemical energy storage systems (ESS to store the excess renewable energy and then reusing this energy when the renewable energy source is insufficient to meet the demand. The performance of an ESS amongst other things is affected by the design, materials used and the operating temperature of the system. The operating temperature is critical since operating an ESS at low ambient temperatures affects its capacity and charge acceptance while operating the ESS at high ambient temperatures affects its lifetime and suggests safety risks. Safety risks are magnified in renewable energy storage applications given the scale of the ESS required to meet the energy demand. This necessity has propelled significant effort to model the thermal behaviour of ESS. Understanding and modelling the thermal behaviour of these systems is a crucial consideration before designing an efficient thermal management system that would operate safely and extend the lifetime of the ESS. This is vital in order to eliminate intermittency and add value to renewable sources of power. This paper concentrates on reviewing theoretical approaches used to simulate the operating temperatures of ESS and the subsequent endeavours of modelling thermal management systems for these systems. The intent of this review is to present some of the different methods of modelling the thermal behaviour of ESS highlighting the advantages and disadvantages of each approach.

  1. A theoretical model for analysing gender bias in medicine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Johansson Eva E

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract During the last decades research has reported unmotivated differences in the treatment of women and men in various areas of clinical and academic medicine. There is an ongoing discussion on how to avoid such gender bias. We developed a three-step-theoretical model to understand how gender bias in medicine can occur and be understood. In this paper we present the model and discuss its usefulness in the efforts to avoid gender bias. In the model gender bias is analysed in relation to assumptions concerning difference/sameness and equity/inequity between women and men. Our model illustrates that gender bias in medicine can arise from assuming sameness and/or equity between women and men when there are genuine differences to consider in biology and disease, as well as in life conditions and experiences. However, gender bias can also arise from assuming differences when there are none, when and if dichotomous stereotypes about women and men are understood as valid. This conceptual thinking can be useful for discussing and avoiding gender bias in clinical work, medical education, career opportunities and documents such as research programs and health care policies. Too meet the various forms of gender bias, different facts and measures are needed. Knowledge about biological differences between women and men will not reduce bias caused by gendered stereotypes or by unawareness of health problems and discrimination associated with gender inequity. Such bias reflects unawareness of gendered attitudes and will not change by facts only. We suggest consciousness-rising activities and continuous reflections on gender attitudes among students, teachers, researchers and decision-makers.

  2. A theoretical model for analysing gender bias in medicine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Risberg, Gunilla; Johansson, Eva E; Hamberg, Katarina

    2009-08-03

    During the last decades research has reported unmotivated differences in the treatment of women and men in various areas of clinical and academic medicine. There is an ongoing discussion on how to avoid such gender bias. We developed a three-step-theoretical model to understand how gender bias in medicine can occur and be understood. In this paper we present the model and discuss its usefulness in the efforts to avoid gender bias. In the model gender bias is analysed in relation to assumptions concerning difference/sameness and equity/inequity between women and men. Our model illustrates that gender bias in medicine can arise from assuming sameness and/or equity between women and men when there are genuine differences to consider in biology and disease, as well as in life conditions and experiences. However, gender bias can also arise from assuming differences when there are none, when and if dichotomous stereotypes about women and men are understood as valid. This conceptual thinking can be useful for discussing and avoiding gender bias in clinical work, medical education, career opportunities and documents such as research programs and health care policies. Too meet the various forms of gender bias, different facts and measures are needed. Knowledge about biological differences between women and men will not reduce bias caused by gendered stereotypes or by unawareness of health problems and discrimination associated with gender inequity. Such bias reflects unawareness of gendered attitudes and will not change by facts only. We suggest consciousness-rising activities and continuous reflections on gender attitudes among students, teachers, researchers and decision-makers.

  3. Effects of solution composition on the theoretical prediction of ice nucleation kinetics and thermodynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karlsson, Jens O M

    2010-02-01

    Predictions by various mathematical models of intracellular ice formation (proposed by Mazur, Pitt, Toner, and Karlsson, respectively) were compared to the known thermodynamic and kinetic behavior of ice formation in supercooled aqueous systems. The older models (Mazur, Pitt, and Toner) significantly underestimated the magnitude of colligative nonequilibrium freezing point depression in response to increased concentration of solutes, such as salts or cryoprotectants. Furthermore, kinetics predicted using phenomenological models (by Mazur and Pitt) exhibited implausible temperature-dependence, with the probability of intracellular ice formation being allowed to increase even at temperatures below the glass transition point. The Toner model, on the other hand, produced invalid results at temperatures below -48 degrees C. The Karlsson model was the only model that consistently yielded realistic predictions over a wide range of temperatures and solute concentrations, especially in the presence of cryoprotectant additives. To facilitate adoption of the Karlsson model of intracellular ice nucleation, the complete set of model equations has been collected and described in detail. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Models Predicting Success of Infertility Treatment: A Systematic Review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zarinara, Alireza; Zeraati, Hojjat; Kamali, Koorosh; Mohammad, Kazem; Shahnazari, Parisa; Akhondi, Mohammad Mehdi

    2016-01-01

    Background: Infertile couples are faced with problems that affect their marital life. Infertility treatment is expensive and time consuming and occasionally isn’t simply possible. Prediction models for infertility treatment have been proposed and prediction of treatment success is a new field in infertility treatment. Because prediction of treatment success is a new need for infertile couples, this paper reviewed previous studies for catching a general concept in applicability of the models. Methods: This study was conducted as a systematic review at Avicenna Research Institute in 2015. Six data bases were searched based on WHO definitions and MESH key words. Papers about prediction models in infertility were evaluated. Results: Eighty one papers were eligible for the study. Papers covered years after 1986 and studies were designed retrospectively and prospectively. IVF prediction models have more shares in papers. Most common predictors were age, duration of infertility, ovarian and tubal problems. Conclusion: Prediction model can be clinically applied if the model can be statistically evaluated and has a good validation for treatment success. To achieve better results, the physician and the couples’ needs estimation for treatment success rate were based on history, the examination and clinical tests. Models must be checked for theoretical approach and appropriate validation. The privileges for applying the prediction models are the decrease in the cost and time, avoiding painful treatment of patients, assessment of treatment approach for physicians and decision making for health managers. The selection of the approach for designing and using these models is inevitable. PMID:27141461

  5. Membranes and theoretical modeling of membrane distillation: a review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khayet, Mohamed

    2011-05-11

    Membrane distillation (MD) is one of the non-isothermal membrane separation processes used in various applications such desalination, environmental/waste cleanup, food, etc. It is known since 1963 and is still being developed at laboratory stage for different purposes and not fully implemented in industry. An abrupt increase in the number of papers on MD membrane engineering (i.e. design, fabrication and testing in MD) is seen since only 6 years ago. The present paper offers a comprehensive MD state-of-the-art review covering a wide range of commercial membranes, MD membrane engineering, their MD performance, transport mechanisms, experimental and theoretical modeling of different MD configurations as well as recent developments in MD. Improved MD membranes with specific morphology, micro- and nano-structures are highly demanded. Membranes with different pore sizes, porosities, thicknesses and materials as well as novel structures are required in order to carry out systematic MD studies for better understanding mass transport in different MD configurations, thereby improving the MD performance and looking for MD industrialization. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Oxidation of organics in water in microfluidic electrochemical reactors: Theoretical model and experiments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scialdone, Onofrio; Guarisco, Chiara; Galia, Alessandro

    2011-01-01

    The electrochemical oxidation of organics in water performed in micro reactors on boron doped diamond (BDD) anode was investigated both theoretically and experimentally in order to find the influence of various operative parameters on the conversion and the current efficiency CE of the process. The electrochemical oxidation of formic acid (FA) was selected as a model case. High conversions for a single passage of the electrolytic solution inside the cell were obtained by operating with proper residence times and low distances between cathode and anode. The effect of initial concentration, flow rate and current density was investigated in detail. Theoretical predictions were in very good agreement with experimental results for both mass transfer control, oxidation reaction control and mixed kinetic regimes in spite of the fact that no adjustable parameters was used. Mass transfer process was successfully modelled by considering for simplicity a constant Sh number (e.g., a constant mass transfer coefficient k m ) for a process performed with no high values of the current intensity to minimize the effect of the gas bubbling on the flowdynamic pattern. For mixed kinetic regimes, two different modelling approaches were used. In the first one, the oxidation of organics at BDD was assumed to be mass transfer controlled and to occur with an intrinsic 100% CE when applied current density is higher than the limiting current density. In the second case, the CE of the process was modelled assuming that the competition between organic and water oxidation depends only on the electrodic material and on the nature and the concentration of the organic. In the latter case a better agreement between experimental data and theoretical predictions was observed.

  7. Theoretical modelling of hot gas ingestion through turbine rim seals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Michael Owen

    2012-12-01

    The nozzle guide vanes create three-dimensional (3D variations in the distribution of pressure in the mainstream annulus and the turbine blades create unsteady effects. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD is both time-consuming and expensive for these 3D unsteady flows, and engine designers tend to use correlations or simple models to predict ingress. This paper describes the application of simple ‘orifice models’, the analytical solutions of which can be used to calculate the sealing effectiveness of turbine rim seals. The solutions agree well with available data for externally-induced ingress, where the effects of rotation are negligible, for rotationally-induced ingress, where the effects of the external flow are small, and for combined ingress, where the effects of both external flow and rotation are significant.

  8. Computational tools for experimental determination and theoretical prediction of protein structure

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    O`Donoghue, S.; Rost, B.

    1995-12-31

    This tutorial was one of eight tutorials selected to be presented at the Third International Conference on Intelligent Systems for Molecular Biology which was held in the United Kingdom from July 16 to 19, 1995. The authors intend to review the state of the art in the experimental determination of protein 3D structure (focus on nuclear magnetic resonance), and in the theoretical prediction of protein function and of protein structure in 1D, 2D and 3D from sequence. All the atomic resolution structures determined so far have been derived from either X-ray crystallography (the majority so far) or Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (NMR) Spectroscopy (becoming increasingly more important). The authors briefly describe the physical methods behind both of these techniques; the major computational methods involved will be covered in some detail. They highlight parallels and differences between the methods, and also the current limitations. Special emphasis will be given to techniques which have application to ab initio structure prediction. Large scale sequencing techniques increase the gap between the number of known proteins sequences and that of known protein structures. They describe the scope and principles of methods that contribute successfully to closing that gap. Emphasis will be given on the specification of adequate testing procedures to validate such methods.

  9. Confronting Theoretical Predictions With Experimental Data; Fitting Strategy For Multi-Dimensional Distributions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomasz Przedziński

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available After developing a Resonance Chiral Lagrangian (RχL model to describe hadronic τ lepton decays [18], the model was confronted with experimental data. This was accomplished using a fitting framework which was developed to take into account the complexity of the model and to ensure the numerical stability for the algorithms used in the fitting. Since the model used in the fit contained 15 parameters and there were only three 1-dimensional distributions available, we could expect multiple local minima or even whole regions of equal potential to appear. Our methods had to thoroughly explore the whole parameter space and ensure, as well as possible, that the result is a global minimum. This paper is focused on the technical aspects of the fitting strategy used. The first approach was based on re-weighting algorithm published in [17] and produced results in around two weeks. Later approach, with improved theoretical model and simple parallelization algorithm based on Inter-Process Communication (IPC methods of UNIX system, reduced computation time down to 2-3 days. Additional approximations were introduced to the model decreasing time to obtain the preliminary results down to 8 hours. This allowed to better validate the results leading to a more robust analysis published in [12].

  10. Theoretical and experimental stress analyses of ORNL thin-shell cylinder-to-cylinder model 3

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gwaltney, R.C.; Bolt, S.E.; Corum, J.M.; Bryson, J.W.

    1975-06-01

    The third in a series of four thin-shell cylinder-to-cylinder models was tested, and the experimentally determined elastic stress distributions were compared with theoretical predictions obtained from a thin-shell finite-element analysis. The models are idealized thin-shell structures consisting of two circular cylindrical shells that intersect at right angles. There are no transitions, reinforcements, or fillets in the junction region. This series of model tests serves two basic purposes: the experimental data provide design information directly applicable to nozzles in cylindrical vessels; and the idealized models provide test results for use in developing and evaluating theoretical analyses applicable to nozzles in cylindrical vessels and to thin piping tees. The cylinder of model 3 had a 10 in. OD and the nozzle had a 1.29 in. OD, giving a d 0 /D 0 ratio of 0.129. The OD/thickness ratios for the cylinder and the nozzle were 50 and 7.68 respectively. Thirteen separate loading cases were analyzed. In each, one end of the cylinder was rigidly held. In addition to an internal pressure loading, three mutually perpendicular force components and three mutually perpendicular moment components were individually applied at the free end of the cylinder and at the end of the nozzle. The experimental stress distributions for all the loadings were obtained using 158 three-gage strain rosettes located on the inner and outer surfaces. The loading cases were also analyzed theoretically using a finite-element shell analysis developed at the University of California, Berkeley. The analysis used flat-plate elements and considered five degrees of freedom per node in the final assembled equations. The comparisons between theory and experiment show reasonably good agreement for this model. (U.S.)

  11. Theoretical and experimental stress analyses of ORNL thin-shell cylinder-to-cylinder model 4

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gwaltney, R.C.; Bolt, S.E.; Bryson, J.W.

    1975-06-01

    The last in a series of four thin-shell cylinder-to-cylinder models was tested, and the experimentally determined elastic stress distributions were compared with theoretical predictions obtained from a thin-shell finite-element analysis. The models in the series are idealized thin-shell structures consisting of two circular cylindrical shells that intersect at right angles. There are no transitions, reinforcements, or fillets in the junction region. This series of model tests serves two basic purposes: (1) the experimental data provide design information directly applicable to nozzles in cylindrical vessels, and (2) the idealized models provide test results for use in developing and evaluating theoretical analyses applicable to nozzles in cylindrical vessels and to thin piping tees. The cylinder of model 4 had an outside diameter of 10 in., and the nozzle had an outside diameter of 1.29 in., giving a d 0 /D 0 ratio of 0.129. The OD/thickness ratios were 50 and 20.2 for the cylinder and nozzle respectively. Thirteen separate loading cases were analyzed. For each loading condition one end of the cylinder was rigidly held. In addition to an internal pressure loading, three mutually perpendicular force components and three mutually perpendicular moment components were individually applied at the free end of the cylinder and at the end of the nozzle. The experimental stress distributions for each of the 13 loadings were obtained using 157 three-gage strain rosettes located on the inner and outer surfaces. Each of the 13 loading cases was also analyzed theoretically using a finite-element shell analysis developed at the University of California, Berkeley. The analysis used flat-plate elements and considered five degrees of freedom per node in the final assembled equations. The comparisons between theory and experiment show reasonably good agreement for this model. (U.S.)

  12. Matching the results of a theoretical model with failure rates obtained from a population of non-nuclear pressure vessels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harrop, L.P.

    1982-02-01

    Failure rates for non-nuclear pressure vessel populations are often regarded as showing a decrease with time. Empirical evidence can be cited which supports this view. On the other hand theoretical predictions of PWR type reactor pressure vessel failure rates have shown an increasing failure rate with time. It is shown that these two situations are not necessarily incompatible. If adjustments are made to the input data of the theoretical model to treat a non-nuclear pressure vessel population, the model can produce a failure rate which decreases with time. These adjustments are explained and the results obtained are shown. (author)

  13. Statistical models for expert judgement and wear prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pulkkinen, U.

    1994-01-01

    This thesis studies the statistical analysis of expert judgements and prediction of wear. The point of view adopted is the one of information theory and Bayesian statistics. A general Bayesian framework for analyzing both the expert judgements and wear prediction is presented. Information theoretic interpretations are given for some averaging techniques used in the determination of consensus distributions. Further, information theoretic models are compared with a Bayesian model. The general Bayesian framework is then applied in analyzing expert judgements based on ordinal comparisons. In this context, the value of information lost in the ordinal comparison process is analyzed by applying decision theoretic concepts. As a generalization of the Bayesian framework, stochastic filtering models for wear prediction are formulated. These models utilize the information from condition monitoring measurements in updating the residual life distribution of mechanical components. Finally, the application of stochastic control models in optimizing operational strategies for inspected components are studied. Monte-Carlo simulation methods, such as the Gibbs sampler and the stochastic quasi-gradient method, are applied in the determination of posterior distributions and in the solution of stochastic optimization problems. (orig.) (57 refs., 7 figs., 1 tab.)

  14. Adding propensity scores to pure prediction models fails to improve predictive performance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amy S. Nowacki

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Background. Propensity score usage seems to be growing in popularity leading researchers to question the possible role of propensity scores in prediction modeling, despite the lack of a theoretical rationale. It is suspected that such requests are due to the lack of differentiation regarding the goals of predictive modeling versus causal inference modeling. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to formally examine the effect of propensity scores on predictive performance. Our hypothesis is that a multivariable regression model that adjusts for all covariates will perform as well as or better than those models utilizing propensity scores with respect to model discrimination and calibration.Methods. The most commonly encountered statistical scenarios for medical prediction (logistic and proportional hazards regression were used to investigate this research question. Random cross-validation was performed 500 times to correct for optimism. The multivariable regression models adjusting for all covariates were compared with models that included adjustment for or weighting with the propensity scores. The methods were compared based on three predictive performance measures: (1 concordance indices; (2 Brier scores; and (3 calibration curves.Results. Multivariable models adjusting for all covariates had the highest average concordance index, the lowest average Brier score, and the best calibration. Propensity score adjustment and inverse probability weighting models without adjustment for all covariates performed worse than full models and failed to improve predictive performance with full covariate adjustment.Conclusion. Propensity score techniques did not improve prediction performance measures beyond multivariable adjustment. Propensity scores are not recommended if the analytical goal is pure prediction modeling.

  15. Theoretical modeling of molar volume and thermal expansion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lu Xiaogang [Department of Materials Science and Engineering, Royal Institute of Technology, 100 44 Stockholm (Sweden)]. E-mail: gang@mse.kth.se; Selleby, Malin [Department of Materials Science and Engineering, Royal Institute of Technology, 100 44 Stockholm (Sweden); Sundman, Bo [Department of Materials Science and Engineering, Royal Institute of Technology, 100 44 Stockholm (Sweden)

    2005-05-15

    The molar volumes and thermal expansions of transition cubic metals were studied by means of the Calphad approach and the Debye-Grueneisen model. Experimental data were collected and assessed using Calphad procedures, and consistent results were obtained which give the best description of all experimental data. In order to put the prediction of the thermodynamic properties of metastable phases on a sound physical basis, the Debye-Grueneisen model was chosen to account for the vibrational contribution and calculate the coefficients of linear thermal expansion (CLEs) of stable cubic metals. Two approximations for Grueneisen parameter {gamma}, i.e. Slater's and Dugdale and MacDonald's expressions were adopted. A modified calculation scheme, first proposed by Wang et al., was derived in a straightforward way and used to evaluate the Debye temperature from ab initio electronic total-energy calculations at T = 0 K. The thermal electronic contribution to CLE was also evaluated from the electronic density of states. The calculated total CLEs were compared with those from the Calphad assessments. A satisfactory agreement is reached.

  16. Theoretical modeling of molar volume and thermal expansion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lu Xiaogang; Selleby, Malin; Sundman, Bo

    2005-01-01

    The molar volumes and thermal expansions of transition cubic metals were studied by means of the Calphad approach and the Debye-Grueneisen model. Experimental data were collected and assessed using Calphad procedures, and consistent results were obtained which give the best description of all experimental data. In order to put the prediction of the thermodynamic properties of metastable phases on a sound physical basis, the Debye-Grueneisen model was chosen to account for the vibrational contribution and calculate the coefficients of linear thermal expansion (CLEs) of stable cubic metals. Two approximations for Grueneisen parameter γ, i.e. Slater's and Dugdale and MacDonald's expressions were adopted. A modified calculation scheme, first proposed by Wang et al., was derived in a straightforward way and used to evaluate the Debye temperature from ab initio electronic total-energy calculations at T = 0 K. The thermal electronic contribution to CLE was also evaluated from the electronic density of states. The calculated total CLEs were compared with those from the Calphad assessments. A satisfactory agreement is reached

  17. A theoretical quantitative model for evolution of cancer chemotherapy resistance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gatenby Robert A

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Disseminated cancer remains a nearly uniformly fatal disease. While a number of effective chemotherapies are available, tumors inevitably evolve resistance to these drugs ultimately resulting in treatment failure and cancer progression. Causes for chemotherapy failure in cancer treatment reside in multiple levels: poor vascularization, hypoxia, intratumoral high interstitial fluid pressure, and phenotypic resistance to drug-induced toxicity through upregulated xenobiotic metabolism or DNA repair mechanisms and silencing of apoptotic pathways. We propose that in order to understand the evolutionary dynamics that allow tumors to develop chemoresistance, a comprehensive quantitative model must be used to describe the interactions of cell resistance mechanisms and tumor microenvironment during chemotherapy. Ultimately, the purpose of this model is to identify the best strategies to treat different types of tumor (tumor microenvironment, genetic/phenotypic tumor heterogeneity, tumor growth rate, etc.. We predict that the most promising strategies are those that are both cytotoxic and apply a selective pressure for a phenotype that is less fit than that of the original cancer population. This strategy, known as double bind, is different from the selection process imposed by standard chemotherapy, which tends to produce a resistant population that simply upregulates xenobiotic metabolism. In order to achieve this goal we propose to simulate different tumor progression and therapy strategies (chemotherapy and glucose restriction targeting stabilization of tumor size and minimization of chemoresistance. Results This work confirms the prediction of previous mathematical models and simulations that suggested that administration of chemotherapy with the goal of tumor stabilization instead of eradication would yield better results (longer subject survival than the use of maximum tolerated doses. Our simulations also indicate that the

  18. A theoretical model for the effects of reduced hemoglobin-oxygen affinity on tumor oxygenation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kavanagh, Brian D.; Secomb, Timothy W.; Hsu, Richard; Lin, P.-S.; Venitz, Jurgen; Dewhirst, Mark W.

    2002-01-01

    Purpose: To develop a theoretical model for oxygen delivery to tumors, and to use the model to simulate the effects of changing the affinity of hemoglobin for oxygen on tumor oxygenation. Methods and Materials: Hemoglobin affinity is expressed in terms of P 50 , the partial pressure of oxygen (Po 2 ) at half saturation. Effects of changing P 50 on arterial Po 2 are predicted using an effective vessel approach to describe diffusive oxygen transport in the lungs, assuming fixed systemic oxygen demand and fixed blood flow rate. The decline in oxygen content of blood as it flows through normal tissue before entering the tumor region is assumed fixed. The hypoxic fraction of the tumor region is predicted using a three-dimensional simulation of diffusion from a network of vessels whose geometry is derived from observations of tumor microvasculature in the rat. Results: In air-breathing rats, predicted hypoxic fraction decreases with moderate increases in P 50 , but increases with further increases of P 50 , in agreement with previous experimental results. In rats breathing hyperoxic gases, and in humans breathing either normoxic or hyperoxic gases, increased P 50 is predicted to improve tumor oxygenation. Conclusions: The results support the administration of synthetic agents to increase P 50 during radiation treatment of tumors

  19. Developing a theoretical model to investigate thermal performance of a thin membrane heat-pipe solar collector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Riffat, S.B.; Zhao, X.; Doherty, P.S.

    2005-01-01

    A thin membrane heat-pipe solar collector was designed and constructed to allow heat from solar radiation to be collected at a relatively high efficiency while keeping the capital cost low. A theoretical model incorporating a set of heat balance equations was developed to analyse heat transfer processes occurring in separate regions of the collector, i.e., the top cover, absorber and condenser/manifold areas, and examine their relationship. The thermal performance of the collector was investigated using the theoretical model. The modelling predictions were validated using the experimental data from a referred source. The test efficiency was found to be in the range 40-70%, which is a bitter lower than the values predicted by modelling. The factors influencing these results were investigated

  20. Iowa calibration of MEPDG performance prediction models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-06-01

    This study aims to improve the accuracy of AASHTO Mechanistic-Empirical Pavement Design Guide (MEPDG) pavement : performance predictions for Iowa pavement systems through local calibration of MEPDG prediction models. A total of 130 : representative p...

  1. A reduced theoretical model for estimating condensation effects in combustion-heated hypersonic tunnel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, L.; Luo, X.; Qin, F.; Yang, J.

    2018-03-01

    As one of the combustion products of hydrocarbon fuels in a combustion-heated wind tunnel, water vapor may condense during the rapid expansion process, which will lead to a complex two-phase flow inside the wind tunnel and even change the design flow conditions at the nozzle exit. The coupling of the phase transition and the compressible flow makes the estimation of the condensation effects in such wind tunnels very difficult and time-consuming. In this work, a reduced theoretical model is developed to approximately compute the nozzle-exit conditions of a flow including real-gas and homogeneous condensation effects. Specifically, the conservation equations of the axisymmetric flow are first approximated in the quasi-one-dimensional way. Then, the complex process is split into two steps, i.e., a real-gas nozzle flow but excluding condensation, resulting in supersaturated nozzle-exit conditions, and a discontinuous jump at the end of the nozzle from the supersaturated state to a saturated state. Compared with two-dimensional numerical simulations implemented with a detailed condensation model, the reduced model predicts the flow parameters with good accuracy except for some deviations caused by the two-dimensional effect. Therefore, this reduced theoretical model can provide a fast, simple but also accurate estimation of the condensation effect in combustion-heated hypersonic tunnels.

  2. Model complexity control for hydrologic prediction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schoups, G.; Van de Giesen, N.C.; Savenije, H.H.G.

    2008-01-01

    A common concern in hydrologic modeling is overparameterization of complex models given limited and noisy data. This leads to problems of parameter nonuniqueness and equifinality, which may negatively affect prediction uncertainties. A systematic way of controlling model complexity is therefore

  3. Theoretical Predictions and Experimental Assessments of the Performance of Alumina RF Windows

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Karen Ann Cummings

    1998-07-01

    Radio frequency (RF) windows are the most likely place for catastrophic failure to occur in input power couplers for particle accelerators. Reliable RF windows are essential for the success of the Accelerator Production of Tritium (APT) program because there are over 1000 windows on the accelerator, and it takes more than one day to recover from a window failure. The goals of this research are to analytically predict the lifetime of the windows, to develop a conditioning procedure, and to evaluate the performance of the RF windows. The analytical goal is to predict the lifetime of the windows. The probability of failure is predicted by the combination of a finite element model of the window, Weibull probabilistic analysis, and fracture mechanics. The window assembly is modeled in a finite element electromagnetic code in order to calculate the electric fields in the window. The geometry (i.e. mesh) and electric fields are input into a translator program to generate the mesh and boundary conditions for a finite element thermal structural code. The temperatures and stresses are determined in the thermal/structural code. The geometry and thermal structural results are input into another translator program to generate an input file for the reliability code. Material, geometry and service data are also input into the reliability code. To obtain accurate Weibull and fatigue data for the analytical model, four point bend tests were done. The analytical model is validated by comparing the measurements to the calculations. The lifetime of the windows is then determined using the reliability code. The analytical model shows the window has a good thermal mechanical design and that fast fracture is unlikely to occur below a power level of 9 Mw. The experimental goal is to develop a conditioning procedure and evaluate the performance of RF windows. During the experimental evaluation, much was learned about processing of the windows to improve the RF performance. Methods of

  4. A theoretical microbial contamination model for a human Mars mission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lupisella, Mark Lewis

    Contamination from a human presence on Mars could significantly compromise the search for extraterrestrial life. In particular, the difficulties in controlling microbial contamination, the potential for terrestrial microbes to grow, evolve, compete, and modify the Martian environment, and the likely microbial nature of putative Martian life, make microbial contamination worthy of focus as we begin to plan for a human mission to Mars. This dissertation describes a relatively simple theoretical model that can be used to explore how microbial contamination from a human Mars mission might survive and grow in the Martian soil environment surrounding a habitat. A user interface has been developed to allow a general practitioner to choose values and functions for almost all parameters ranging from the number of astronauts to the half-saturation constants for microbial growth. Systematic deviations from a baseline set of parameter values are explored as potential plausible scenarios for the first human Mars missions. The total viable population and population density are the primary state variables of interest, but other variables such as the total number of births and total dead and viable microbes are also tracked. The general approach was to find the most plausible parameter value combinations that produced a population density of 1 microbe/cm3 or greater, a threshold that was used to categorize the more noteworthy populations for subsequent analysis. Preliminary assessments indicate that terrestrial microbial contamination resulting from leakage from a limited human mission (perhaps lasting up to 5 months) will not likely become a problematic population in the near-term as long as reasonable contamination control measures are implemented (for example, a habitat leak rate no greater than 1% per hour). However, there appear to be plausible, albeit unlikely, scenarios that could cause problematic populations, depending in part on (a) the initial survival fraction and

  5. Modeling and Prediction of Soil Water Vapor Sorption Isotherms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arthur, Emmanuel; Tuller, Markus; Moldrup, Per

    2015-01-01

    Soil water vapor sorption isotherms describe the relationship between water activity (aw) and moisture content along adsorption and desorption paths. The isotherms are important for modeling numerous soil processes and are also used to estimate several soil (specific surface area, clay content.......93) for a wide range of soils; and (ii) develop and test regression models for estimating the isotherms from clay content. Preliminary results show reasonable fits of the majority of the investigated empirical and theoretical models to the measured data although some models were not capable to fit both sorption...... directions accurately. Evaluation of the developed prediction equations showed good estimation of the sorption/desorption isotherms for tested soils....

  6. Staying Power of Churn Prediction Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Risselada, Hans; Verhoef, Peter C.; Bijmolt, Tammo H. A.

    In this paper, we study the staying power of various churn prediction models. Staying power is defined as the predictive performance of a model in a number of periods after the estimation period. We examine two methods, logit models and classification trees, both with and without applying a bagging

  7. Theoretical prediction of thermodynamic properties of tritiated beryllium molecules and application to ITER source term

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Virot, F., E-mail: francois.virot@irsn.fr; Barrachin, M.; Souvi, S.; Cantrel, L.

    2014-10-15

    Highlights: • Standard enthalpies of formation of BeH, BeH{sub 2}, BeOH, Be(OH){sub 2} have been calculated. • The impact of hydrogen isotopy on thermodynamic properties has been shown. • Speciation in the vacuum vessel shows that the main tritiated species is tritiated steam. • Beryllium hydroxide and hydride could exist during an accidental event. - Abstract: By quantum chemistry calculations, we have evaluated the standard enthalpies of formation of some gaseous species of the Be-O-H chemical system: BeH, BeH{sub 2}, BeOH, Be(OH){sub 2} for which the values in the referenced thermodynamic databases (NIST-JANAF [1] or COACH [2]) were, due to the lack of experimental data, estimated or reported with a large uncertainty. Comparison between post-HF, DFT approaches and available experimental data allows validation of the ability of an accurate exchange-correlation functional, VSXC, to predict the thermo-chemical properties of the beryllium species of interest. Deviation of enthalpy of formation induced by changes in hydrogen isotopy has been also calculated. From these new theoretically determinated data, we have calculated the chemical speciation in conditions simulating an accident of water ingress in the vacuum vessel of ITER.

  8. Enthalpy/Entropy Contributions to Conformational KIEs: Theoretical Predictions and Comparison with Experiment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aaron Fong

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Previous theoretical studies of Mislow’s doubly-bridged biphenyl ketone 1 and dihydrodimethylphenanthrene 2 have determined significant entropic contributions to their normal (1 and inverse (2 conformational kinetic isotope effects (CKIEs. To broaden our investigation, we have used density functional methods to characterize the potential energy surfaces and vibrational frequencies for ground and transition structures of additional systems with measured CKIEs, including [2.2]-metaparacyclophane-d (3, 1,1'-binaphthyl (4, 2,2'-dibromo-[1,1'-biphenyl]-4,4'-dicarboxylic acid (5, and the 2-(N,N,N-trimethyl-2'-(N,N-dimethyl-diaminobiphenyl cation (6. We have also computed CKIEs in a number of systems whose experimental CKIEs are unknown. These include analogs of 1 in which the C=O groups have been replaced with CH2 (7, O (8, and S (9 atoms and ring-expanded variants of 2 containing CH2 (10, O (11, S (12, or C=O (13 groups. Vibrational entropy contributes to the CKIEs in all of these systems with the exception of cyclophane 3, whose isotope effect is predicted to be purely enthalpic in origin and whose Bigeleisen-Mayer ZPE term is equivalent to ΔΔ H‡. There is variable correspondence between these terms in the other molecules studied, thus identifying additional examples of systems in which the Bigeleisen-Mayer formalism does not correlate with ΔH/ΔS dissections.

  9. Theoretical prediction of ion conductivity in solid state HfO2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Wei; Chen, Wen-Zhou; Sun, Jiu-Yu; Jiang, Zhen-Yi

    2013-01-01

    A theoretical prediction of ion conductivity for solid state HfO2 is carried out in analogy to ZrO2 based on the density functional calculation. Geometric and electronic structures of pure bulks exhibit similarity for the two materials. Negative formation enthalpy and negative vacancy formation energy are found for YSH (yttria-stabilized hafnia) and YSZ (yttria-stabilized zirconia), suggesting the stability of both materials. Low activation energies (below 0.7 eV) of diffusion are found in both materials, and YSH's is a little higher than that of YSZ. In addition, for both HfO2 and ZrO2, the supercells with native oxygen vacancies are also studied. The so-called defect states are observed in the supercells with neutral and +1 charge native vacancy but not in the +2 charge one. It can give an explanation to the relatively lower activation energies of yttria-doped oxides and +2 charge vacancy supercells. A brief discussion is presented to explain the different YSH ion conductivities in the experiment and obtained by us, and we attribute this to the different ion vibrations at different temperatures.

  10. Morphoelastic control of gastro-intestinal organogenesis: Theoretical predictions and numerical insights

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balbi, V.; Kuhl, E.; Ciarletta, P.

    2015-05-01

    With nine meters in length, the gastrointestinal tract is not only our longest, but also our structurally most diverse organ. During embryonic development, it evolves as a bilayered tube with an inner endodermal lining and an outer mesodermal layer. Its inner surface displays a wide variety of morphological patterns, which are closely correlated to digestive function. However, the evolution of these intestinal patterns remains poorly understood. Here we show that geometric and mechanical factors can explain intestinal pattern formation. Using the nonlinear field theories of mechanics, we model surface morphogenesis as the instability problem of constrained differential growth. To allow for internal and external expansion, we model the gastrointestinal tract with homogeneous Neumann boundary conditions. To establish estimates for the folding pattern at the onset of folding, we perform a linear stability analysis supplemented by the perturbation theory. To predict pattern evolution in the post-buckling regime, we perform a series of nonlinear finite element simulations. Our model explains why longitudinal folds emerge in the esophagus with a thick and stiff outer layer, whereas circumferential folds emerge in the jejunum with a thinner and softer outer layer. In intermediate regions like the feline esophagus, longitudinal and circumferential folds emerge simultaneously. Our model could serve as a valuable tool to explain and predict alterations in esophageal morphology as a result of developmental disorders or certain digestive pathologies including food allergies.

  11. Experimental and theoretical study of Pseudomonas putida transport in a three-dimensional model aquifer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vasiliadou, I. A.; Katzourakis, V. E.; Syngouna, V. I.; Chrysikopoulos, C. V.

    2012-04-01

    This study is focused on the transport of Pseudomonas (P.) putida bacterial cells in a three-dimensional model aquifer. The pilot-scale aquifer consisted of a rectangular glass tank with internal dimensions: 120 cm length, 48 cm width, and 50 cm height, carefully packed with well-characterized quartz sand. The P. putida attachment onto the aquifer sand was determined with batch experiments, and was adequately described by a linear isotherm. Transport experiments with a conservative tracer and P. putida were conducted to characterize the aquifer and to investigate the bacterial behavior during transport in water saturated porous media. A three-dimensional, finite-difference numerical model for bacterial transport in saturated, homogeneous porous media was developed and was used to successfully fit the experimental data. Furthermore, theoretical interaction energy calculations suggested that the extended DLVO theory seems to predict bacteria attachment onto the aquifer sand better than the classical DLVO theory.

  12. The neural mediators of kindness-based meditation: a theoretical model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jennifer Streiffer Mascaro

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Although kindness-based contemplative practices are increasingly employed by clinicians and cognitive researchers to enhance prosocial emotions, social cognitive skills, and well-being, and as a tool to understand the basic workings of the social mind, we lack a coherent theoretical model with which to test the mechanisms by which kindness-based meditation may alter the brain and body. Here we link contemplative accounts of compassion and loving-kindness practices with research from social cognitive neuroscience and social psychology to generate predictions about how diverse practices may alter brain structure and function and related aspects of social cognition. Contingent on the nuances of the practice, kindness-based meditation may enhance the neural systems related to faster and more basic perceptual or motor simulation processes, simulation of another’s affective body state, slower and higher-level perspective-taking, modulatory processes such as emotion regulation and self/other discrimination, and combinations thereof. This theoretical model will be discussed alongside best practices for testing such a model and potential implications and applications of future work.

  13. Theoretical and experimental stress analyses of ORNL thin-shell cylinder-to-cylinder model 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gwaltney, R.C.; Bolt, S.E.; Bryson, J.W.

    1975-10-01

    Model 2 in a series of four thin-shell cylinder-to-cylinder models was tested, and the experimentally determined elastic stress distributions were compared with theoretical predictions obtained from a thin-shell finite-element analysis. Both the cylinder and the nozzle of model 2 had outside diameters of 10 in., giving a d 0 /D 0 ratio of 1.0, and both had outside diameter/thickness ratios of 100. Sixteen separate loading cases in which one end of the cylinder was rigidly held were analyzed. An internal pressure loading, three mutually perpendicular force components, and three mutually perpendicular moment components were individually applied at the free end of the cylinder and at the end of the nozzle. In addition to these 13 loadings, 3 additional loads were applied to the nozzle (in-plane bending moment, out-of-plane bending moment, and axial force) with the free end of the cylinder restrained. The experimental stress distributions for each of the 16 loadings were obtained using 152 three-gage strain rosettes located on the inner and outer surfaces. All the 16 loading cases were also analyzed theoretically using a finite-element shell analysis. The analysis used flat-plate elements and considered five degrees of freedom per node in the final assembled equations. The comparisons between theory and experiment show reasonably good general agreement, and it is felt that the analysis would be satisfactory for most engineering purposes. (auth)

  14. The neural mediators of kindness-based meditation: a theoretical model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mascaro, Jennifer S; Darcher, Alana; Negi, Lobsang T; Raison, Charles L

    2015-01-01

    Although kindness-based contemplative practices are increasingly employed by clinicians and cognitive researchers to enhance prosocial emotions, social cognitive skills, and well-being, and as a tool to understand the basic workings of the social mind, we lack a coherent theoretical model with which to test the mechanisms by which kindness-based meditation may alter the brain and body. Here, we link contemplative accounts of compassion and loving-kindness practices with research from social cognitive neuroscience and social psychology to generate predictions about how diverse practices may alter brain structure and function and related aspects of social cognition. Contingent on the nuances of the practice, kindness-based meditation may enhance the neural systems related to faster and more basic perceptual or motor simulation processes, simulation of another's affective body state, slower and higher-level perspective-taking, modulatory processes such as emotion regulation and self/other discrimination, and combinations thereof. This theoretical model will be discussed alongside best practices for testing such a model and potential implications and applications of future work.

  15. Determining Student Competency in Field Placements: An Emerging Theoretical Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Twyla L. Salm

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes a qualitative case study that explores how twenty-three field advisors, representing three human service professions including education, nursing, and social work, experience the process of assessment with students who are struggling to meet minimum competencies in field placements. Five themes emerged from the analysis of qualitative interviews. The field advisors primary concern was the level of professional competency achieved by practicum students. Related to competency were themes concerned with the field advisor's role in being accountable and protecting the reputation of his/her profession as well as the reputation of the professional program affiliated with the practicum student's professional education. The final theme – teacher-student relationship –emerged from the data, both as a stand-alone and global or umbrella theme. As an umbrella theme, teacher-student relationship permeated each of the other themes as the participants interpreted their experiences of the process of assessment through the mentor relationships. A theoretical model was derived from these findings and the description of the model is presented. Cet article décrit une étude de cas qualitative qui explore comment vingt-trois conseillers de stages, représentant trois professions de services sociaux comprenant l’éducation, les soins infirmiers et le travail social, ont vécu l’expérience du processus d’évaluation avec des étudiants qui ont des difficultés à acquérir les compétences minimales durant les stages. Cinq thèmes ont été identifiés lors de l’analyse des entrevues qualitatives. La préoccupation principale des conseillers de stages était le niveau de compétence professionnelle acquis par les stagiaires. Les thèmes liés à la compétence étaient le rôle des conseillers de stages dans leur responsabilité pour protéger la réputation de leur profession ainsi que la réputation d’un programme professionnel

  16. Theoretical predictions and experimental studies of self-organized C{sub 60} nanoparticles in water solution and on the support

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Prilutski, Yu.I.; Durov, S.S.; Yashchuk, V.N.; Ogul' chansky, T.Yu.; Pogorelov, V.E.; Astashkin, Yu.A. [Kievskij Gosudarstvennyj Univ. (Ukraine). Radiofizicheskij Fakul' tet; Buzaneva, E.V.; Kirghisov, Yu.D. [Department of Radiophysics, Kiev Shevchenko University, Vladimirskaya Str., 64, 252033 Kiev (Ukraine); Andrievsky, G.V. [Institute for Therapy of the Academy of Medical Sciences of Ukraine, Postysheva Str. 2a, 310116 Kharkov (Ukraine); Scharff, P. [Institut fuer Anorganische und Analytische Chemie, TU Clausthal, Paul-Ernst-Strasse 4, D-38670 Clausthal-Zellerfeld (Germany)

    1999-12-01

    The formation in water of highly stable hydrated clusters (I{sub h} symmetry group) and microcrystals (T{sub h} symmetry group) from C{sub 60} fullerenes is theoretically predicted using a molecular dynamics calculation. The proposed models are confirmed by the experiments on the Raman and absorption spectra of the fullerene aqueous solution. The additional study of the structure of C{sub 60} fullerene aggregates in the dry layer on the support (dielectric/semiconductor) is also performed. (orig.)

  17. Predictive models for moving contact line flows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rame, Enrique; Garoff, Stephen

    2003-01-01

    Modeling flows with moving contact lines poses the formidable challenge that the usual assumptions of Newtonian fluid and no-slip condition give rise to a well-known singularity. This singularity prevents one from satisfying the contact angle condition to compute the shape of the fluid-fluid interface, a crucial calculation without which design parameters such as the pressure drop needed to move an immiscible 2-fluid system through a solid matrix cannot be evaluated. Some progress has been made for low Capillary number spreading flows. Combining experimental measurements of fluid-fluid interfaces very near the moving contact line with an analytical expression for the interface shape, we can determine a parameter that forms a boundary condition for the macroscopic interface shape when Ca much les than l. This parameter, which plays the role of an "apparent" or macroscopic dynamic contact angle, is shown by the theory to depend on the system geometry through the macroscopic length scale. This theoretically established dependence on geometry allows this parameter to be "transferable" from the geometry of the measurement to any other geometry involving the same material system. Unfortunately this prediction of the theory cannot be tested on Earth.

  18. Anxiety and Depression During Childhood and Adolescence: Testing Theoretical Models of Continuity and Discontinuity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, Joseph R; Andrews, Arthur R; Davis, Megan M; Rudolph, Karen D

    2017-12-19

    The present study sought to clarify the trajectory (i.e., continuous vs. discontinuous) and expression (i.e., homotypic vs. heterotypic) of anxiety and depressive symptoms across childhood and adolescence. We utilized a state-of-the-science analytic approach to simultaneously test theoretical models that describe the development of internalizing symptoms in youth. In a sample of 636 children (53% female; M age = 7.04; SD age = 0.35) self-report measures of anxiety and depression were completed annually by youth through their freshman year of high school. For both anxiety and depression, a piecewise growth curve model provided the best fit for the data, with symptoms decreasing until age 12 (the "developmental knot") and then increasing into early adolescence. The trajectory of anxiety symptoms was best described by a discontinuous homotypic pattern in which childhood anxiety predicted adolescent anxiety. For depression, two distinct pathways were discovered: A discontinuous homotypic pathway in which childhood depression predicted adolescent depression and a discontinuous heterotypic pathway in which childhood anxiety predicted adolescent depression. Analytical, methodological, and clinical implications of these findings are discussed.

  19. Comparison of Prediction-Error-Modelling Criteria

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, John Bagterp; Jørgensen, Sten Bay

    2007-01-01

    Single and multi-step prediction-error-methods based on the maximum likelihood and least squares criteria are compared. The prediction-error methods studied are based on predictions using the Kalman filter and Kalman predictors for a linear discrete-time stochastic state space model, which is a r...

  20. Theoretical Modeling of the Surface-Enhanced Raman Optical Activity

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Novák, Vít; Šebestík, Jaroslav; Bouř, Petr

    2012-01-01

    Roč. 8, č. 5 (2012), s. 1714-1720 ISSN 1549-9618 R&D Projects: GA ČR GAP208/11/0105; GA MŠk(CZ) LH11033 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z40550506 Keywords : vibrational spectroscopy * absolute-configuration * silver electrode * spectra * scattering * pyridine Subject RIV: CF - Physical ; Theoretical Chemistry Impact factor: 5.389, year: 2012

  1. Theoretical Model of Engagement in the Context of Brand Communities

    OpenAIRE

    Flávia D\\u2019albergaria Freitas; Victor Manoel Cunha de Almeida

    2017-01-01

    This essay proposes to refine the concept of consumer engagement in the context of brand communities. A comprehensive review of studies addressing the phenomenon of brand community was made. This paper follows the tradition of Marketing Research and Consumer Behavior, more specifically the perspective of cognitive psychology. The main theoretical foundation of the study is the Social Identity Theory (SIT), also incorporating relevant contributions from the perspective of Consumer Culture Theo...

  2. Modelling drying kinetics of thyme (Thymus vulgaris L.): theoretical and empirical models, and neural networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodríguez, J; Clemente, G; Sanjuán, N; Bon, J

    2014-01-01

    The drying kinetics of thyme was analyzed by considering different conditions: air temperature of between 40°C  and 70°C , and air velocity of 1 m/s. A theoretical diffusion model and eight different empirical models were fitted to the experimental data. From the theoretical model application, the effective diffusivity per unit area of the thyme was estimated (between 3.68 × 10(-5) and 2.12 × 10 (-4) s(-1)). The temperature dependence of the effective diffusivity was described by the Arrhenius relationship with activation energy of 49.42 kJ/mol. Eight different empirical models were fitted to the experimental data. Additionally, the dependence of the parameters of each model on the drying temperature was determined, obtaining equations that allow estimating the evolution of the moisture content at any temperature in the established range. Furthermore, artificial neural networks were developed and compared with the theoretical and empirical models using the percentage of the relative errors and the explained variance. The artificial neural networks were found to be more accurate predictors of moisture evolution with VAR ≥ 99.3% and ER ≤ 8.7%.

  3. Criteria for prediction of plastic instabilities for hot working processes. (Part I: Theoretical review)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Al Omar, A.; Prado, J. M.

    2010-01-01

    Hot working processes often induce high levels of deformation at high strain rates, and impose very complex multiaxial modes of solicitation. These processes are essentially limited by apparition and development of plastic instabilities. These may be the direct cause of rapid crack propagation, which lead to a possible final rupture. The complexity of deformation modes and the simultaneous intervention of several parameters have led many researchers to develop various criteria, with different approaches, to predict the occurrence of defects and to optimize process control parameters. The aim of the present paper is to summarize the general characteristics of some instability criteria, widely used in the literature, for the prediction of plastic instabilities during hot working. It was considered appropriate to divide the work into two parts: part I presents the phenomenological criteria for the prediction of plastic instabilities, based on descriptive observation of microscopic phenomena of the deformation (strain hardening and strain rate sensitivity), and discusses the continuum criteria based on the principle of maximum rate of entropy production of irreversible thermodynamics applied to continuum mechanics of large plastic flow. Also, this part provides a bibliographical discussion among several authors with regard to the physical foundations of dynamic materials model. In part II, of the work, a comparative study has been carried out to characterize the flow instability during a hot working process of a medium carbon microalloyed using phenomenological and continuum criteria. (Author) 83 refs.

  4. An employer brand predictive model for talent attraction and retention

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Annelize Botha

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Orientation: In an ever shrinking global talent pool organisations use employer brand to attract and retain talent, however, in the absence of theoretical pointers, many organisations are losing out on a powerful business tool by not developing or maintaining their employer brand correctly. Research purpose: This study explores the current state of knowledge about employer brand and identifies the various employer brand building blocks which are conceptually integrated in a predictive model. Motivation for the study: The need for scientific progress though the accurate representation of a set of employer brand phenomena and propositions, which can be empirically tested, motivated this study. Research design, approach and method: This study was nonempirical in approach and searched for linkages between theoretical concepts by making use of relevant contextual data. Theoretical propositions which explain the identified linkages were developed for purpose of further empirical research. Main findings: Key findings suggested that employer brand is influenced by target group needs, a differentiated Employer Value Proposition (EVP, the people strategy, brand consistency, communication of the employer brand and measurement of Human Resources (HR employer branding efforts. Practical/managerial implications: The predictive model provides corporate leaders and their human resource functionaries a theoretical pointer relative to employer brand which could guide more effective talent attraction and retention decisions. Contribution/value add: This study adds to the small base of research available on employer brand and contributes to both scientific progress as well as an improved practical understanding of factors which influence employer brand.

  5. Planetary wave prediction: Benefits of tropical data and global models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Somerville, R. C. J.

    1985-01-01

    Skillful numerical predictions of midlatitude atmospheric planetary waves generally require both tropical data for the initial conditions and a global domain for the forecast model. The lack of either adequate tropical observations or a global domain typically leads to a significant degradation of forecast skill in middle latitudes within the first one to three days of the forecast period. These effects were first discovered by numerical experimentation. They were subsequently explained theoretically, and their importance for practical forecasting was confirmed in a series of prediction experiments using FGGE data.

  6. Durability and life prediction modeling in polyimide composites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Binienda, Wieslaw K.

    1995-01-01

    Sudden appearance of cracks on a macroscopically smooth surface of brittle materials due to cooling or drying shrinkage is a phenomenon related to many engineering problems. Although conventional strength theories can be used to predict the necessary condition for crack appearance, they are unable to predict crack spacing and depth. On the other hand, fracture mechanics theory can only study the behavior of existing cracks. The theory of crack initiation can be summarized into three conditions, which is a combination of a strength criterion and laws of energy conservation, the average crack spacing and depth can thus be determined. The problem of crack initiation from the surface of an elastic half plane is solved and compares quite well with available experimental evidence. The theory of crack initiation is also applied to concrete pavements. The influence of cracking is modeled by the additional compliance according to Okamura's method. The theoretical prediction by this structural mechanics type of model correlates very well with the field observation. The model may serve as a theoretical foundation for future pavement joint design. The initiation of interactive cracks of quasi-brittle material is studied based on a theory of cohesive crack model. These cracks may grow simultaneously, or some of them may close during certain stages. The concept of crack unloading of cohesive crack model is proposed. The critical behavior (crack bifurcation, maximum loads) of the cohesive crack model are characterized by rate equations. The post-critical behavior of crack initiation is also studied.

  7. Calibration of PMIS pavement performance prediction models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-02-01

    Improve the accuracy of TxDOTs existing pavement performance prediction models through calibrating these models using actual field data obtained from the Pavement Management Information System (PMIS). : Ensure logical performance superiority patte...

  8. Predictive Model Assessment for Count Data

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Czado, Claudia; Gneiting, Tilmann; Held, Leonhard

    2007-01-01

    .... In case studies, we critique count regression models for patent data, and assess the predictive performance of Bayesian age-period-cohort models for larynx cancer counts in Germany. Key words: Calibration...

  9. Modeling and Prediction Using Stochastic Differential Equations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Juhl, Rune; Møller, Jan Kloppenborg; Jørgensen, John Bagterp

    2016-01-01

    deterministic and can predict the future perfectly. A more realistic approach would be to allow for randomness in the model due to e.g., the model be too simple or errors in input. We describe a modeling and prediction setup which better reflects reality and suggests stochastic differential equations (SDEs......) for modeling and forecasting. It is argued that this gives models and predictions which better reflect reality. The SDE approach also offers a more adequate framework for modeling and a number of efficient tools for model building. A software package (CTSM-R) for SDE-based modeling is briefly described....... that describes the variation between subjects. The ODE setup implies that the variation for a single subject is described by a single parameter (or vector), namely the variance (covariance) of the residuals. Furthermore the prediction of the states is given as the solution to the ODEs and hence assumed...

  10. A new theoretical model for scattering of electrons by molecules. 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peixoto, E.M.A.; Mu-tao, L.; Nogueira, J.C.

    1975-01-01

    A new theoretical model for electron-molecule scattering is suggested. The e-H 2 scattering is studied and the superiority of the new model over the commonly used Independent Atom Model (IAM) is demonstrated. Comparing theoretical and experimental data for 40keV electrons scattered by H 2 utilizing the new model, its validity is proved, while Partial Wave and First Born calculations, employing the Independent Atom Model, strongly deviated from the experiment [pt

  11. Theoretical modeling and experimental validation of a torsional piezoelectric vibration energy harvesting system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qian, Feng; Zhou, Wanlu; Kaluvan, Suresh; Zhang, Haifeng; Zuo, Lei

    2018-04-01

    Vibration energy harvesting has been extensively studied in recent years to explore a continuous power source for sensor networks and low-power electronics. Torsional vibration widely exists in mechanical engineering; however, it has not yet been well exploited for energy harvesting. This paper presents a theoretical model and an experimental validation of a torsional vibration energy harvesting system comprised of a shaft and a shear mode piezoelectric transducer. The piezoelectric transducer position on the surface of the shaft is parameterized by two variables that are optimized to obtain the maximum power output. The piezoelectric transducer can work in d 15 mode (pure shear mode), coupled mode of d 31 and d 33, and coupled mode of d 33, d 31 and d 15, respectively, when attached at different angles. Approximate expressions of voltage and power are derived from the theoretical model, which gave predictions in good agreement with analytical solutions. Physical interpretations on the implicit relationship between the power output and the position parameters of the piezoelectric transducer is given based on the derived approximate expression. The optimal position and angle of the piezoelectric transducer is determined, in which case, the transducer works in the coupled mode of d 15, d 31 and d 33.

  12. Bayesian Fundamentalism or Enlightenment? On the explanatory status and theoretical contributions of Bayesian models of cognition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Matt; Love, Bradley C

    2011-08-01

    The prominence of Bayesian modeling of cognition has increased recently largely because of mathematical advances in specifying and deriving predictions from complex probabilistic models. Much of this research aims to demonstrate that cognitive behavior can be explained from rational principles alone, without recourse to psychological or neurological processes and representations. We note commonalities between this rational approach and other movements in psychology - namely, Behaviorism and evolutionary psychology - that set aside mechanistic explanations or make use of optimality assumptions. Through these comparisons, we identify a number of challenges that limit the rational program's potential contribution to psychological theory. Specifically, rational Bayesian models are significantly unconstrained, both because they are uninformed by a wide range of process-level data and because their assumptions about the environment are generally not grounded in empirical measurement. The psychological implications of most Bayesian models are also unclear. Bayesian inference itself is conceptually trivial, but strong assumptions are often embedded in the hypothesis sets and the approximation algorithms used to derive model predictions, without a clear delineation between psychological commitments and implementational details. Comparing multiple Bayesian models of the same task is rare, as is the realization that many Bayesian models recapitulate existing (mechanistic level) theories. Despite the expressive power of current Bayesian models, we argue they must be developed in conjunction with mechanistic considerations to offer substantive explanations of cognition. We lay out several means for such an integration, which take into account the representations on which Bayesian inference operates, as well as the algorithms and heuristics that carry it out. We argue this unification will better facilitate lasting contributions to psychological theory, avoiding the pitfalls

  13. Theoretical prediction and validation of cell recovery rates in preparing platelet-rich plasma through a centrifugation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piao, Linfeng; Park, Hyungmin; Jo, Chris Hyunchul

    2017-01-01

    In the present study, we propose a theoretical framework to predict the recovery rates of platelets and white blood cells in the process of centrifugal separation of whole blood contained in a tube for the preparation of platelet-rich plasma. Compared to previous efforts to optimize or standardize the protocols of centrifugation, we try to further the physical background (i.e., based on the multiphase flow phenomena) of analysis to develop a universal approach that can be applied to widely different conditions. That is, one-dimensional quasi-linear partial differential equation to describe the centrifugal sedimentation of dispersed phase (red and white blood cells) in continuous phase (plasma) is derived based on the kinematic-wave theory. With the information of whole blood volume and tube geometry considered, it is possible to determine the positions of interfaces between supernatant/suspension and suspension/sediment, i.e., the particle concentration gradient in a tube, for a wide range of centrifugation parameters (time and acceleration). While establishing a theory to predict the recovery rates of the platelet and white blood cell from the pre-determined interface positions, we also propose a new correlation model between the recovery rates of plasma and platelets, which is found to be a function of the whole blood volume, centrifugal time and acceleration, and tube geometry. The present predictions for optimal condition show good agreements with available human clinical data, obtained from different conditions, indicating the universal applicability of our method. Furthermore, the dependence of recovery rates on centrifugal conditions reveals that there exist a different critical acceleration and time for the maximum recovery rate of platelets and white blood cells, respectively. The other parameters such as hematocrit, whole blood volume and tube geometry are also found to strongly affect the maximum recovery rates of blood cells, and finally, as a strategy

  14. Predictive models for arteriovenous fistula maturation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al Shakarchi, Julien; McGrogan, Damian; Van der Veer, Sabine; Sperrin, Matthew; Inston, Nicholas

    2016-05-07

    Haemodialysis (HD) is a lifeline therapy for patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD). A critical factor in the survival of renal dialysis patients is the surgical creation of vascular access, and international guidelines recommend arteriovenous fistulas (AVF) as the gold standard of vascular access for haemodialysis. Despite this, AVFs have been associated with high failure rates. Although risk factors for AVF failure have been identified, their utility for predicting AVF failure through predictive models remains unclear. The objectives of this review are to systematically and critically assess the methodology and reporting of studies developing prognostic predictive models for AVF outcomes and assess them for suitability in clinical practice. Electronic databases were searched for studies reporting prognostic predictive models for AVF outcomes. Dual review was conducted to identify studies that reported on the development or validation of a model constructed to predict AVF outcome following creation. Data were extracted on study characteristics, risk predictors, statistical methodology, model type, as well as validation process. We included four different studies reporting five different predictive models. Parameters identified that were common to all scoring system were age and cardiovascular disease. This review has found a small number of predictive models in vascular access. The disparity between each study limits the development of a unified predictive model.

  15. Model Predictive Control Fundamentals | Orukpe | Nigerian Journal ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Model Predictive Control (MPC) has developed considerably over the last two decades, both within the research control community and in industries. MPC strategy involves the optimization of a performance index with respect to some future control sequence, using predictions of the output signal based on a process model, ...

  16. Unreachable Setpoints in Model Predictive Control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rawlings, James B.; Bonné, Dennis; Jørgensen, John Bagterp

    2008-01-01

    In this work, a new model predictive controller is developed that handles unreachable setpoints better than traditional model predictive control methods. The new controller induces an interesting fast/slow asymmetry in the tracking response of the system. Nominal asymptotic stability of the optim...

  17. Theoretical Model of Development of Information Competence among Students Enrolled in Elective Courses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhumasheva, Anara; Zhumabaeva, Zaida; Sakenov, Janat; Vedilina, Yelena; Zhaxylykova, Nuriya; Sekenova, Balkumis

    2016-01-01

    The current study focuses on the research topic of creating a theoretical model of development of information competence among students enrolled in elective courses. In order to examine specific features of the theoretical model of development of information competence among students enrolled in elective courses, we performed an analysis of…

  18. Development of Children's Creative Visual Imagination: A Theoretical Model and Enhancement Programmes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dziedziewicz, Dorota; Karwowski, Maciej

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents a new theoretical model of creative imagination and its applications in early education. The model sees creative imagination as composed of three inter-related components: vividness of images, their originality, and the level of transformation of imageries. We explore the theoretical and practical consequences of this new…

  19. Experimental validation of a theoretical model of dual wavelength photoacoustic (PA) excitation in fluorophores

    Science.gov (United States)

    Märk, Julia; Theiss, Christoph; Schmitt, Franz-Josef; Laufer, Jan

    2015-03-01

    Fluorophores, such as exogenous dyes and genetically expressed proteins, exhibit radiative relaxation with long excited state lifetimes. This can be exploited for PA detection based on dual wavelength excitation using pump and probe wavelengths that coincide with the absorption and emission spectra, respectively. While the pump pulse raises the fluorophore to a long-lived excited state, simultaneous illumination with the probe pulse reduces the excited state lifetime due to stimulated emission (SE).This leads to a change in thermalized energy, and hence PA signal amplitude, compared to single wavelength illumination. By introducing a time delay between pump and probe pulses, the change in PA amplitude can be modulated. Since the effect is not observed in endogenous chromophores, it provides a contrast mechanism for the detection of fluorophores via PA difference imaging. In this study, a theoretical model of the PA signal generation in fluorophores was developed and experimentally validated. The model is based on a system of coupled rate equations, which describe the spatial and temporal changes in the population of the molecular energy levels of a fluorophore as a function of pump-probe energy and concentration. This allows the prediction of the thermalized energy distribution, and hence the time-resolved PA signal amplitude. The model was validated by comparing its predictions to PA signals measured in solutions of rhodamine 6G, a well-known laser dye, and Atto680, a NIR fluorophore.

  20. The custodially protected Randall-Sundrum model. Theoretical aspects and flavour phenomenology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blanke, Monika

    2009-01-01

    Models with a warped extra dimension, so-called Randall-Sundrum models, provide an appealing solution to the gauge and flavour hierarchy problems of the Standard Model. After introducing the theoretical basics of such models, we concentrate on a specific model whose symmetry structure is extended to protect the T parameter and the Zb L anti b L coupling from large corrections. We introduce the basic action and discuss in detail effects of electroweak symmetry breaking and the flavour structure of the model. Then we analyse meson-antimeson mixing and rare decays that are affected by new tree level contributions from the Kaluza-Klein modes of the gauge bosons and from the Z boson in an important manner. After deriving analytic expressions for the most important K and B physics observables, we perform a global numerical analysis of the new effects in the model in question. We confirm the recent findings that a stringent constraint on the model is placed by CP-violation in K 0 - anti K 0 mixing. However, even for Kaluza-Klein particles in the reach of the LHC an agreement with all available data can be obtained without significant fine-tuning. We find possible large effects in either CP-violating effects in the B s - anti B s system or in the rare K decays, but not simultaneously. In any case the deviations from the Standard Model predictions in the rare B decays are small and difficult to measure. The specific pattern of new flavour effects allows to distinguish this model from other New Physics frameworks, which we demonstrate explicitly for the case of models with Minimal Flavour Violation and for the Littlest Higgs model with T-parity. (orig.)

  1. The custodially protected Randall-Sundrum model. Theoretical aspects and flavour phenomenology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Blanke, Monika

    2009-07-24

    Models with a warped extra dimension, so-called Randall-Sundrum models, provide an appealing solution to the gauge and flavour hierarchy problems of the Standard Model. After introducing the theoretical basics of such models, we concentrate on a specific model whose symmetry structure is extended to protect the T parameter and the Zb{sub L} anti b{sub L} coupling from large corrections. We introduce the basic action and discuss in detail effects of electroweak symmetry breaking and the flavour structure of the model. Then we analyse meson-antimeson mixing and rare decays that are affected by new tree level contributions from the Kaluza-Klein modes of the gauge bosons and from the Z boson in an important manner. After deriving analytic expressions for the most important K and B physics observables, we perform a global numerical analysis of the new effects in the model in question. We confirm the recent findings that a stringent constraint on the model is placed by CP-violation in K{sup 0} - anti K{sup 0} mixing. However, even for Kaluza-Klein particles in the reach of the LHC an agreement with all available data can be obtained without significant fine-tuning. We find possible large effects in either CP-violating effects in the B{sub s} - anti B{sub s} system or in the rare K decays, but not simultaneously. In any case the deviations from the Standard Model predictions in the rare B decays are small and difficult to measure. The specific pattern of new flavour effects allows to distinguish this model from other New Physics frameworks, which we demonstrate explicitly for the case of models with Minimal Flavour Violation and for the Littlest Higgs model with T-parity. (orig.)

  2. Clinical Prediction Models for Cardiovascular Disease: Tufts Predictive Analytics and Comparative Effectiveness Clinical Prediction Model Database.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wessler, Benjamin S; Lai Yh, Lana; Kramer, Whitney; Cangelosi, Michael; Raman, Gowri; Lutz, Jennifer S; Kent, David M

    2015-07-01

    Clinical prediction models (CPMs) estimate the probability of clinical outcomes and hold the potential to improve decision making and individualize care. For patients with cardiovascular disease, there are numerous CPMs available although the extent of this literature is not well described. We conducted a systematic review for articles containing CPMs for cardiovascular disease published between January 1990 and May 2012. Cardiovascular disease includes coronary heart disease, heart failure, arrhythmias, stroke, venous thromboembolism, and peripheral vascular disease. We created a novel database and characterized CPMs based on the stage of development, population under study, performance, covariates, and predicted outcomes. There are 796 models included in this database. The number of CPMs published each year is increasing steadily over time. Seven hundred seventeen (90%) are de novo CPMs, 21 (3%) are CPM recalibrations, and 58 (7%) are CPM adaptations. This database contains CPMs for 31 index conditions, including 215 CPMs for patients with coronary artery disease, 168 CPMs for population samples, and 79 models for patients with heart failure. There are 77 distinct index/outcome pairings. Of the de novo models in this database, 450 (63%) report a c-statistic and 259 (36%) report some information on calibration. There is an abundance of CPMs available for a wide assortment of cardiovascular disease conditions, with substantial redundancy in the literature. The comparative performance of these models, the consistency of effects and risk estimates across models and the actual and potential clinical impact of this body of literature is poorly understood. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.

  3. Hybrid approaches to physiologic modeling and prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olengü, Nicholas O.; Reifman, Jaques

    2005-05-01

    This paper explores how the accuracy of a first-principles physiological model can be enhanced by integrating data-driven, "black-box" models with the original model to form a "hybrid" model system. Both linear (autoregressive) and nonlinear (neural network) data-driven techniques are separately combined with a first-principles model to predict human body core temperature. Rectal core temperature data from nine volunteers, subject to four 30/10-minute cycles of moderate exercise/rest regimen in both CONTROL and HUMID environmental conditions, are used to develop and test the approach. The results show significant improvements in prediction accuracy, with average improvements of up to 30% for prediction horizons of 20 minutes. The models developed from one subject's data are also used in the prediction of another subject's core temperature. Initial results for this approach for a 20-minute horizon show no significant improvement over the first-principles model by itself.

  4. A Thermodamage Strength Theoretical Model of Ceramic Materials Taking into Account the Effect of Residual Stress

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Weiguo Li

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available A thermodamage strength theoretical model taking into account the effect of residual stress was established and applied to each temperature phase based on the study of effects of various physical mechanisms on the fracture strength of ultrahigh-temperature ceramics. The effects of SiC particle size, crack size, and SiC particle volume fraction on strength corresponding to different temperatures were studied in detail. This study showed that when flaw size is not large, the bigger SiC particle size results in the greater effect of tensile residual stress in the matrix grains on strength reduction, and this prediction coincides with experimental results; and the residual stress and the combined effort of particle size and crack size play important roles in controlling material strength.

  5. Comparison of the models of financial distress prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiří Omelka

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Prediction of the financial distress is generally supposed as approximation if a business entity is closed on bankruptcy or at least on serious financial problems. Financial distress is defined as such a situation when a company is not able to satisfy its liabilities in any forms, or when its liabilities are higher than its assets. Classification of financial situation of business entities represents a multidisciplinary scientific issue that uses not only the economic theoretical bases but interacts to the statistical, respectively to econometric approaches as well.The first models of financial distress prediction have originated in the sixties of the 20th century. One of the most known is the Altman’s model followed by a range of others which are constructed on more or less conformable bases. In many existing models it is possible to find common elements which could be marked as elementary indicators of potential financial distress of a company. The objective of this article is, based on the comparison of existing models of prediction of financial distress, to define the set of basic indicators of company’s financial distress at conjoined identification of their critical aspects. The sample defined this way will be a background for future research focused on determination of one-dimensional model of financial distress prediction which would subsequently become a basis for construction of multi-dimensional prediction model.

  6. On the theoretical aspects of improved fog detection and prediction in India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dey, Sagnik

    2018-04-01

    The polluted Indo-Gangetic Basin (IGB) in northern India experiences fog (a condition when visibility degrades below 1 km) every winter (Dec-Jan) causing a massive loss of economy and even loss of life due to accidents. This can be minimized by improved fog detection (especially at night) and forecasting so that activities can be reorganized accordingly. Satellites detect fog at night by a positive brightness temperature difference (BTD). However, fixing the right BTD threshold holds the key to accuracy. Here I demonstrate the sensitivity of BTD in response to changes in fog and surface emissivity and their temperatures and justify a new BTD threshold. Further I quantify the dependence of critical fog droplet number concentration, NF (i.e. minimum fog concentration required to degrade visibility below 1 km) on liquid water content (LWC). NF decreases exponentially with an increase in LWC from 0.01 to 1 g/m3, beyond which it stabilizes. A 10 times low bias in simulated LWC below 1 g/m3 would require 107 times higher aerosol concentration to form the required number of fog droplets. These results provide the theoretical aspects that will help improving the existing fog detection algorithm and fog forecasting by numerical models in India.

  7. Proposal of a theoretical model for the practical nurse

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dolores Abril Sabater

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available AIM: To determine which model of nursing is proposed by care professionals and the reason for their choice. METHOD: cross-sectional, descriptive study design. The main variable: Nursing Models and Theories. As secondary variables were collected: age, gender, years of work experience, nursing model of basic training, and course/s related. We used a self-elaborated, anonymous questionnaire, passed between April - May, 2006. Not random sample.RESULTS: 546 nurses were invited, answered 205. 38 % response rate. Virginia Henderson was the more selected model (33%, however, 42% left the question blank, 12% indicated that they wanted to work under the guidance of a model. They selected a specifically model: Knowledge of the model to their training, standardization in other centers, the characteristics of the model itself and identification with its philosophy. They are not decided by a model by ignorance, lack of time and usefulness. CONCLUSIONS: The model chosen mostly for their daily work was Virginia Henderson model, so that knowledge of a model is the main reason for their election. Professionals who choose not to use the model in their practice realize offers and calling for resources, besides to explain the lack of knowledge on this topic. To advance the nursing profession is necessary that nurse is thought over widely on the abstract concepts of the theory in our context.

  8. [Nursing practice based on theoretical models: a qualitative study of nurses' perception].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amaducci, Giovanna; Iemmi, Marina; Prandi, Marzia; Saffioti, Angelina; Carpanoni, Marika; Mecugni, Daniela

    2013-01-01

    Many faculty argue that theory and theorizing are closely related to the clinical practice, that the disciplinary knowledge grows, more relevantly, from the specific care context in which it takes place and, moreover, that knowledge does not proceed only by the application of general principles of the grand theories to specific cases. Every nurse, in fact, have  a mental model, of what may or may not be aware, that motivate and substantiate every action and choice of career. The study describes what the nursing theoretical model is; the mental model and the tacit  knowledge underlying it. It identifies the explicit theoretical model of the professional group that rapresents nursing partecipants, aspects of continuity with the theoretical model proposed by this degree course in Nursing.. Methods Four focus groups were made which were attended by a total of 22 nurses, rapresentatives of almost every Unit of Reggio Emilia Hospital's. We argue that the theoretical nursing model of each professional group is the result of tacit knowledge, which help to define the personal mental model, and the theoretical model, which explicitly underlying theoretical content learned applied consciously and reverted to / from nursing practice. Reasoning on the use of theory in practice has allowed us to give visibility to a theoretical model explicitly nursing authentically oriented to the needs of the person, in all its complexity in specific contexts.

  9. A theoretical model of the application of RF energy to the airway wall and its experimental validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    Background Bronchial thermoplasty is a novel technique designed to reduce an airway's ability to contract by reducing the amount of airway smooth muscle through controlled heating of the airway wall. This method has been examined in animal models and as a treatment for asthma in human subjects. At the present time, there has been little research published about how radiofrequency (RF) energy and heat is transferred to the airways of the lung during bronchial thermoplasty procedures. In this manuscript we describe a computational, theoretical model of the delivery of RF energy to the airway wall. Methods An electro-thermal finite-element-analysis model was designed to simulate the delivery of temperature controlled RF energy to airway walls of the in vivo lung. The model includes predictions of heat generation due to RF joule heating and transfer of heat within an airway wall due to thermal conduction. To implement the model, we use known physical characteristics and dimensions of the airway and lung tissues. The model predictions were tested with measurements of temperature, impedance, energy, and power in an experimental canine model. Results Model predictions of electrode temperature, voltage, and current, along with tissue impedance and delivered energy were compared to experiment measurements and were within ± 5% of experimental averages taken over 157 sample activations. The experimental results show remarkable agreement with the model predictions, and thus validate the use of this model to predict the heat generation and transfer within the airway wall following bronchial thermoplasty. Conclusions The model also demonstrated the importance of evaporation as a loss term that affected both electrical measurements and heat distribution. The model predictions showed excellent agreement with the empirical results, and thus support using the model to develop the next generation of devices for bronchial thermoplasty. Our results suggest that comparing model results

  10. A theoretical model of the application of RF energy to the airway wall and its experimental validation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brown Robert H

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Bronchial thermoplasty is a novel technique designed to reduce an airway's ability to contract by reducing the amount of airway smooth muscle through controlled heating of the airway wall. This method has been examined in animal models and as a treatment for asthma in human subjects. At the present time, there has been little research published about how radiofrequency (RF energy and heat is transferred to the airways of the lung during bronchial thermoplasty procedures. In this manuscript we describe a computational, theoretical model of the delivery of RF energy to the airway wall. Methods An electro-thermal finite-element-analysis model was designed to simulate the delivery of temperature controlled RF energy to airway walls of the in vivo lung. The model includes predictions of heat generation due to RF joule heating and transfer of heat within an airway wall due to thermal conduction. To implement the model, we use known physical characteristics and dimensions of the airway and lung tissues. The model predictions were tested with measurements of temperature, impedance, energy, and power in an experimental canine model. Results Model predictions of electrode temperature, voltage, and current, along with tissue impedance and delivered energy were compared to experiment measurements and were within ± 5% of experimental averages taken over 157 sample activations. The experimental results show remarkable agreement with the model predictions, and thus validate the use of this model to predict the heat generation and transfer within the airway wall following bronchial thermoplasty. Conclusions The model also demonstrated the importance of evaporation as a loss term that affected both electrical measurements and heat distribution. The model predictions showed excellent agreement with the empirical results, and thus support using the model to develop the next generation of devices for bronchial thermoplasty. Our results suggest

  11. A graph theoretical perspective of a drug abuse epidemic model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nyabadza, F.; Mukwembi, S.; Rodrigues, B. G.

    2011-05-01

    A drug use epidemic can be represented by a finite number of states and transition rules that govern the dynamics of drug use in each discrete time step. This paper investigates the spread of drug use in a community where some users are in treatment and others are not in treatment, citing South Africa as an example. In our analysis, we consider the neighbourhood prevalence of each individual, i.e., the proportion of the individual’s drug user contacts who are not in treatment amongst all of his or her contacts. We introduce parameters α∗, β∗ and γ∗, depending on the neighbourhood prevalence, which govern the spread of drug use. We examine how changes in α∗, β∗ and γ∗ affect the system dynamics. Simulations presented support the theoretical results.

  12. Evaluating the Predictive Value of Growth Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murphy, Daniel L.; Gaertner, Matthew N.

    2014-01-01

    This study evaluates four growth prediction models--projection, student growth percentile, trajectory, and transition table--commonly used to forecast (and give schools credit for) middle school students' future proficiency. Analyses focused on vertically scaled summative mathematics assessments, and two performance standards conditions (high…

  13. Model predictive control classical, robust and stochastic

    CERN Document Server

    Kouvaritakis, Basil

    2016-01-01

    For the first time, a textbook that brings together classical predictive control with treatment of up-to-date robust and stochastic techniques. Model Predictive Control describes the development of tractable algorithms for uncertain, stochastic, constrained systems. The starting point is classical predictive control and the appropriate formulation of performance objectives and constraints to provide guarantees of closed-loop stability and performance. Moving on to robust predictive control, the text explains how similar guarantees may be obtained for cases in which the model describing the system dynamics is subject to additive disturbances and parametric uncertainties. Open- and closed-loop optimization are considered and the state of the art in computationally tractable methods based on uncertainty tubes presented for systems with additive model uncertainty. Finally, the tube framework is also applied to model predictive control problems involving hard or probabilistic constraints for the cases of multiplic...

  14. The theoretical foundations for size spectrum models of fish communities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Ken Haste; Jacobsen, Nis Sand; Farnsworth, K.D.

    2016-01-01

    assessment of fisheries. We describe the fundamental concepts in size-based models about food encounter and the bioenergetics budget of individuals. Within the general framework three model types have emerged that differs in their degree of complexity: the food-web, the trait-based and the community model...

  15. Measurements and theoretical modeling of effective thermal conductivity of particle beds under compression in air and vacuum

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jingwen Mo

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Effective thermal conductivity experiments were carried out with spherical particle beds under low and high compressive pressure loading in vacuum and air. A theoretical model was proposed for the effective thermal conductivity of particle beds based on the experimental results. The model incorporates heat conduction by particles including contact thermal resistance between particles, conduction through the gas in between particles, and radiation between particles, and includes two fitting parameters, namely the coefficient of heat conducted through the fluid, and the macro-contact thermal resistance. The predictions from the theoretical model satisfactorily match the experimental data for the bed effective thermal conductivity over the range of applied loading pressures on particles with different Young's modulus and the gas environment. The model can be used generally to describe the effect of compression stress or pressure on effective thermal conductivity of particle beds.

  16. Theoretical and experimental prediction of the redox potentials of metallocene compounds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ya-Ping; Liu, Hai-Bo; Liu, Tao; Yu, Zhang-Yu

    2017-11-01

    The standard redox electrode potential ( E°) values of metallocene compounds are obtained theoretically with density functional theory (DFT) method at B3LYP/6-311++G( d, p) level and experimentally with cyclic voltammetry (CV). The theoretical E° values of metallocene compounds are in good agreement with experimental ones. We investigate the substituent effects on the redox properties of metallocene compounds. Among the four metallocene compounds, the E° values is largest for titanocene dichloride and smallest for ferrocene.

  17. A theoretical model for flow boiling CHF from short concave heaters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Galloway, J.E.; Mudawar, I.

    1995-01-01

    Experiments were performed to enable the development of a new theoretical mode for the enhancement in CHF commonly observed with flow boiling on concave heater as compared to straight heaters. High-speed video imaging and photomicrography were employed to capture the trigger mechanism for CHF each type heater. A wavy vapor layer was observed to engulf the heater surface in each case, permitting liquid access to the surface only in regions where depressions (troughs) in the liquid vapor interface made contact with the surface. CHF in each case occurred when the pressure force exerted upon the wavy vapor-liquid inter ace in the contact region could no longer overcome the momentum of the vapor produced in these regional. Shorter interfacial wavelengths with greater curvature were measured on the curve, heater than on the straight heater, promoting a greater pressure force on the wave interface and a corresponding increase in CHF for the curved heater. A theoretics. CHF model is developed from these observations, based upon a new theory for hydrodynamic instability, along a curved interface. CHF data are predicted with good accuracy for both heaters. 23 refs., 9 figs

  18. Model Predictive Control of Buoy Type Wave Energy Converter

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Soltani, Mohsen N.; Sichani, Mahdi T.; Mirzaei, Mahmood

    2014-01-01

    by forcing this condition. In the paper the theoretical framework for this principal is shown. The optimal controller requires information of the sea state for infinite horizon which is not applicable. Model Predictive Controllers (MPC) can have finite horizon which crosses out this requirement....... This approach is then taken into account and an MPC controller is designed for a model wave energy converter and implemented on a numerical example. Further, the power outtake of this controller is compared to the optimal controller as an indicator of the performance of the designed controller....

  19. Theoretical models of magnetic field line merging. I

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vasyliunas, V.M.

    1975-01-01

    Models of magnetic field line merging that consider processes in a limited region around the magnetic X line, within which the external magnetic fields are roughly uniform and antiparallel, are reviewed. Part I describes the concept of magnetic merging and then considers the models based on a hydromagnetic approach. The models developed by Sweet and Parker, by Petschek, and by Sonnerup and Yeh and Axford are shown to be fundamentally consistent, representing different aspects of the same problem. The model of Sweet and Parker describes the small region around the neutral line where magnetic field diffusion is the dominant process. The inclusion of inertial as well as finite resistivity effects allows an extension of their model to collisionless plasmas. Petschek's model represents a system with a boundary condition of uniform field at the sides; it has been extended and formulated in a mathematically precise manner. The nonsingular model of Sonnerup and of Yeh and Axford has special boundary conditions at the sides producing localized slow mode MHD expansion fans in the external flow; the singular models and the compressible similarity models are physically unrealizable. The maximum merging rate corresponds to flow into the diffusion region of the local Alfven speed, which, however, can be made arbitrarily large by slow mode MHD expansion if suitable boundary condi []ions are present. (auth)

  20. Modeling and Simulation Fundamentals Theoretical Underpinnings and Practical Domains

    CERN Document Server

    Sokolowski, John A

    2010-01-01

    An insightful presentation of the key concepts, paradigms, and applications of modeling and simulation. Modeling and simulation has become an integral part of research and development across many fields of study, having evolved from a tool to a discipline in less than two decades. Modeling and Simulation Fundamentals offers a comprehensive and authoritative treatment of the topic and includes definitions, paradigms, and applications to equip readers with the skills needed to work successfully as developers and users of modeling and simulation. Featuring contributions written by leading experts

  1. Hydrophobic ampersand hydrophilic: Theoretical models of solvation for molecular biophysics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pratt, L.R.; Tawa, G.J.; Hummer, G.; Garcia, A.E.; Corcelli, S.A.

    1996-01-01

    Molecular statistical thermodynamic models of hydration for chemistry and biophysics have advanced abruptly in recent years. With liquid water as solvent, salvation phenomena are classified as either hydrophobic or hydrophilic effects. Recent progress in treatment of hydrophilic effects have been motivated by continuum dielectric models interpreted as a modelistic implementation of second order perturbation theory. New results testing that perturbation theory of hydrophilic effects are presented and discussed. Recent progress in treatment of hydrophobic effects has been achieved by applying information theory to discover models of packing effects in dense liquids. The simplest models to which those ideas lead are presented and discussed

  2. Theoretical prediction and experimental verification of protein-coding genes in plant pathogen genome Agrobacterium tumefaciens strain C58.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Qian; Lei, Yang; Xu, Xiwen; Wang, Gejiao; Chen, Ling-Ling

    2012-01-01

    Agrobacterium tumefaciens strain C58 is a Gram-negative soil bacterium capable of inducing tumors (crown galls) on many dicotyledonous plants. The genome of A. tumefaciens strain C58 was re-annotated based on the Z-curve method. First, all the 'hypothetical genes' were re-identified, and 29 originally annotated 'hypothetical genes' were recognized to be non-coding open reading frames (ORFs). Theoretical evidence obtained from principal component analysis, clusters of orthologous groups of proteins occupation, and average length distribution showed that these non-coding ORFs were highly unlikely to encode proteins. Results from the reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) experiments on three different growth stages of A. tumefaciens C58 confirmed that 23 (79%) of the identified non-coding ORFs have no transcripts in these growth stages. In addition, using theoretical prediction, 19 potential protein-coding genes were predicted to be new protein-coding genes. Fifteen (79%) of these genes were verified with RT-PCR experiments. The RT-PCR experimental results confirmed the reliability of our theoretical prediction, indicating that false-positive prediction and missing genes always exist in the annotation of A. tumefaciens C58 genome. The improved annotation will serve as a valuable resource for the research of the lifestyle, metabolism, and pathogenicity of A. tumefaciens C58. The re-annotation of A. tumefaciens C58 can be obtained from http://211.69.128.148/Atum/.

  3. Theoretical prediction and experimental verification of protein-coding genes in plant pathogen genome Agrobacterium tumefaciens strain C58.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qian Wang

    Full Text Available Agrobacterium tumefaciens strain C58 is a Gram-negative soil bacterium capable of inducing tumors (crown galls on many dicotyledonous plants. The genome of A. tumefaciens strain C58 was re-annotated based on the Z-curve method. First, all the 'hypothetical genes' were re-identified, and 29 originally annotated 'hypothetical genes' were recognized to be non-coding open reading frames (ORFs. Theoretical evidence obtained from principal component analysis, clusters of orthologous groups of proteins occupation, and average length distribution showed that these non-coding ORFs were highly unlikely to encode proteins. Results from the reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR experiments on three different growth stages of A. tumefaciens C58 confirmed that 23 (79% of the identified non-coding ORFs have no transcripts in these growth stages. In addition, using theoretical prediction, 19 potential protein-coding genes were predicted to be new protein-coding genes. Fifteen (79% of these genes were verified with RT-PCR experiments. The RT-PCR experimental results confirmed the reliability of our theoretical prediction, indicating that false-positive prediction and missing genes always exist in the annotation of A. tumefaciens C58 genome. The improved annotation will serve as a valuable resource for the research of the lifestyle, metabolism, and pathogenicity of A. tumefaciens C58. The re-annotation of A. tumefaciens C58 can be obtained from http://211.69.128.148/Atum/.

  4. A Global Model for Bankruptcy Prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alaminos, David; Del Castillo, Agustín; Fernández, Manuel Ángel

    2016-01-01

    The recent world financial crisis has increased the number of bankruptcies in numerous countries and has resulted in a new area of research which responds to the need to predict this phenomenon, not only at the level of individual countries, but also at a global level, offering explanations of the common characteristics shared by the affected companies. Nevertheless, few studies focus on the prediction of bankruptcies globally. In order to compensate for this lack of empirical literature, this study has used a methodological framework of logistic regression to construct predictive bankruptcy models for Asia, Europe and America, and other global models for the whole world. The objective is to construct a global model with a high capacity for predicting bankruptcy in any region of the world. The results obtained have allowed us to confirm the superiority of the global model in comparison to regional models over periods of up to three years prior to bankruptcy.

  5. Theoretical investigation on the magnetic and electric properties in TbSb compound through an anisotropic microscopic model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ranke, P. J. von, E-mail: von.ranke@uol.com.br; Ribeiro, P. O.; Alho, B. P.; Alvarenga, T. S. T.; Nobrega, E. P.; Caldas, A.; Sousa, V. S. R.; Lopes, P. H. O.; Oliveira, N. A. de [Instituto de Física, Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro–UERJ, Rua São Francisco Xavier, 524, 20550-013 Rio de Janeiro (RJ) (Brazil); Carvalho, A. Magnus G. [Laboratório Nacional de Luz Síncrotron, CNPEM, 13083-970 Campinas, São Paulo (Brazil)

    2016-05-14

    We report the strong correlations between the magnetoresistivity and the magnetic entropy change in the cubic antiferromagnetic TbSb compound. The theoretical investigation was performed through a microscopic model which takes into account the crystalline electrical field anisotropy, exchange coupling interactions between the up and down magnetic sublattices, and the Zeeman interaction. The easy magnetization directions changes from 〈001〉 to 〈110〉 and then to 〈111〉 observed experimentally was successfully theoretically described. Also, the calculation of the temperature dependence of electric resistivity showed good agreement with the experimental data. Theoretical predictions were calculated for the temperature dependence of the magnetic entropy and resistivity changes upon magnetic field variation. Besides, the difference in the spin up and down sublattices resistivity was investigated.

  6. A Theoretical Study of Subsurface Drainage Model Simulation of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A three-dimensional variable-density groundwater flow model, the SEAWAT model, was used to assess the influence of subsurface drain spacing, evapotranspiration and irrigation water quality on salt concentration at the base of the root zone, leaching and drainage in salt affected irrigated land. The study was carried out ...

  7. The Interval Market Model in Mathematical Finance : Game Theoretic Methods

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bernhard, P.; Engwerda, J.C.; Roorda, B.; Schumacher, J.M.; Kolokoltsov, V.; Saint-Pierre, P.; Aubin, J.P.

    2013-01-01

    Toward the late 1990s, several research groups independently began developing new, related theories in mathematical finance. These theories did away with the standard stochastic geometric diffusion “Samuelson” market model (also known as the Black-Scholes model because it is used in that most famous

  8. Nonlinear local electrovascular coupling. I: A theoretical model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riera, Jorge J; Wan, Xiaohong; Jimenez, Juan Carlos; Kawashima, Ryuta

    2006-11-01

    Here we present a detailed biophysical model of how brain electrical and vascular dynamics are generated within a basic cortical unit. The model was obtained from coupling a canonical neuronal mass and an expandable vasculature. In this proposal, we address several aspects related to electroencephalographic and functional magnetic resonance imaging data fusion: (1) the impact of the cerebral architecture (at different physical levels) on the observations; (2) the physiology involved in electrovascular coupling; and (3) energetic considerations to gain a better understanding of how the glucose budget is used during neuronal activity. The model has three components. The first is the canonical neural mass model of three subpopulations of neurons that respond to incoming excitatory synaptic inputs. The generation of the membrane potentials in the somas of these neurons and the electric currents flowing in the neuropil are modeled by this component. The second and third components model the electrovascular coupling and the dynamics of vascular states in an extended balloon approach, respectively. In the first part we describe, in some detail, the biophysical model and establish its face validity using simulations of visually evoked responses under different flickering frequencies and luminous contrasts. In a second part, a recursive optimization algorithm is developed and used to make statistical inferences about this forward/generative model from actual data. Copyright 2006 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

  9. Fingerprint verification prediction model in hand dermatitis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Chew K; Chang, Choong C; Johor, Asmah; Othman, Puwira; Baba, Roshidah

    2015-07-01

    Hand dermatitis associated fingerprint changes is a significant problem and affects fingerprint verification processes. This study was done to develop a clinically useful prediction model for fingerprint verification in patients with hand dermatitis. A case-control study involving 100 patients with hand dermatitis. All patients verified their thumbprints against their identity card. Registered fingerprints were randomized into a model derivation and model validation group. Predictive model was derived using multiple logistic regression. Validation was done using the goodness-of-fit test. The fingerprint verification prediction model consists of a major criterion (fingerprint dystrophy area of ≥ 25%) and two minor criteria (long horizontal lines and long vertical lines). The presence of the major criterion predicts it will almost always fail verification, while presence of both minor criteria and presence of one minor criterion predict high and low risk of fingerprint verification failure, respectively. When none of the criteria are met, the fingerprint almost always passes the verification. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.937, and the goodness-of-fit test showed agreement between the observed and expected number (P = 0.26). The derived fingerprint verification failure prediction model is validated and highly discriminatory in predicting risk of fingerprint verification in patients with hand dermatitis. © 2014 The International Society of Dermatology.

  10. A game-theoretic model of interspecific brood parasitism with sequential decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harrison, M D; Broom, M

    2009-02-21

    The interaction between hosts and parasites in bird populations has been studied extensively. This paper uses game-theoretic methods to model this interaction. This has been done in previous papers but has not been studied taking into account the detailed sequential nature of this game. We introduce a model allowing the host and parasite to make a number of decisions which will depend on various natural factors. The sequence of events begins with the host forming a nest and laying a number of eggs, followed by the possibility that a parasite bird will arrive at the nest; if it does it can choose to destroy some of the host eggs and lay one of its own. A sequence of events follows, which is broken down into two key stages; firstly the interaction between the host and the parasite adult, and secondly that between the host and the parasite chick. The final decision involves the host choosing whether to raise or abandon the chicks that are in the nest. There are certain natural parameters and probabilities which are central to these various decisions; in particular the host is generally uncertain whether parasitism has taken place, but can assess the likelihood of parasitism based upon certain cues (e.g. how many eggs remain in its nest). We then use this methodology to model two real-world interactions, that of the Reed Warbler with the Common Cuckoo and also the Yellow Warbler with the Brown-headed Cowbird. These parasites have different methods in the way they parasitize the nests of their hosts, and the hosts can in turn have different reactions to these parasites. Our model predictions generally match the real results well, and the model also makes predictions of the effect of changes in various key parameters on the type of parasitic interactions that should occur.

  11. Massive Predictive Modeling using Oracle R Enterprise

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN. Geneva

    2014-01-01

    R is fast becoming the lingua franca for analyzing data via statistics, visualization, and predictive analytics. For enterprise-scale data, R users have three main concerns: scalability, performance, and production deployment. Oracle's R-based technologies - Oracle R Distribution, Oracle R Enterprise, Oracle R Connector for Hadoop, and the R package ROracle - address these concerns. In this talk, we introduce Oracle's R technologies, highlighting how each enables R users to achieve scalability and performance while making production deployment of R results a natural outcome of the data analyst/scientist efforts. The focus then turns to Oracle R Enterprise with code examples using the transparency layer and embedded R execution, targeting massive predictive modeling. One goal behind massive predictive modeling is to build models per entity, such as customers, zip codes, simulations, in an effort to understand behavior and tailor predictions at the entity level. Predictions...

  12. Experimental observations and theoretical models for beam-beam phenomena

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kheifets, S.

    1981-03-01

    The beam-beam interaction in storage rings exhibits all the characteristics of nonintegrable dynamical systems. Here one finds all kinds of resonances, closed orbits, stable and unstable fixed points, stochastic layers, chaotic behavior, diffusion, etc. The storage ring itself being an expensive device nevertheless while constructed and put into operation presents a good opportunity of experimentally studying the long-time behavior of both conservative (proton machines) and nonconservative (electron machines) dynamical systems - the number of bunch-bunch interactions routinely reaches values of 10 10 -10 11 and could be increased by decreasing the beam current. At the same time the beam-beam interaction puts practical limits for the yield of the storage ring. This phenomenon not only determines the design value of main storage ring parameters (luminosity, space charge parameters, beam current), but also in fact prevents many of the existing storage rings from achieving design parameters. Hence, the problem has great practical importance along with its enormous theoretical interest. A brief overview of the problem is presented

  13. Colloid filtration in surface dense vegetation: experimental results and theoretical predictions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Lei; Muñoz-Carpena, Rafael; Gao, Bin; Yang, Wen; Pachepsky, Yakov A

    2014-04-01

    Understanding colloid and colloid-facilitated contaminant transport in overland flow through dense vegetation is important to protect water quality in the environment, especially for water bodies receiving agricultural and urban runoff. In previous studies, a single-stem efficiency theory for rigid and clean stem systems was developed to predict colloid filtration by plant stems of vegetation in laminar overland flow. Hence, in order to improve the accuracy of the single-stem efficiency theory to real dense vegetation system, we incorporated the effect of natural organic matter (NOM) on the filtration of colloids by stems. Laboratory dense vegetation flow chamber experiments and model simulations were used to determine the kinetic deposition (filtration) rate of colloids under various conditions. The results show that, in addition to flow hydrodynamics and solution chemistry, steric repulsion afforded by NOM layer on the plants stem surface also plays a significant role in controlling colloid deposition on vegetation in overland flow. For the first time, a refined single-stem efficiency theory with considerations of the NOM effect is developed that describes the experimental data with good accuracy. This theory can be used to not only help construct and refine mathematical models of colloid transport in real vegetation systems in overland flow, but also inform the development of theories of colloid deposition on NOM-coated surfaces in natural, engineered, and biomedical systems.

  14. A novel theoretical model for the temperature dependence of band gap energy in semiconductors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geng, Peiji; Li, Weiguo; Zhang, Xianhe; Zhang, Xuyao; Deng, Yong; Kou, Haibo

    2017-10-01

    We report a novel theoretical model without any fitting parameters for the temperature dependence of band gap energy in semiconductors. This model relates the band gap energy at the elevated temperature to that at the arbitrary reference temperature. As examples, the band gap energies of Si, Ge, AlN, GaN, InP, InAs, ZnO, ZnS, ZnSe and GaAs at temperatures below 400 K are calculated and are in good agreement with the experimental results. Meanwhile, the band gap energies at high temperatures (T  >  400 K) are predicted, which are greater than the experimental results, and the reasonable analysis is carried out as well. Under low temperatures, the effect of lattice expansion on the band gap energy is very small, but it has much influence on the band gap energy at high temperatures. Therefore, it is necessary to consider the effect of lattice expansion at high temperatures, and the method considering the effect of lattice expansion has also been given. The model has distinct advantages compared with the widely quoted Varshni’s semi-empirical equation from the aspect of modeling, physical meaning and application. The study provides a convenient method to determine the band gap energy under different temperatures.

  15. Rigorous theoretical derivation of lumped models to transmission line systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhao Jixiang

    2012-01-01

    By virtue of the negative electric parameter concept, i.e. negative lumped resistance, inductance, conductance and capacitance (N-RLGC), the lumped equivalent models of transmission line systems, including the circuit model, two-port π-network and T-network, are given. We start from the N-segment-ladder-like equivalent networks composed distributed parameters, and achieve the input impedance in the form of a continued fraction. Utilizing the continued fraction theory, the expressions of input impedance are obtained under three kinds of extreme cases, i.e. the load impedances are equal to zero, infinity and characteristic impedance, respectively. When the number of segment N is limited to infinity, they are transformed to lumped elements. Comparison between the distributed model and lumped model of transmission lines, the expression of tanh γd, which is the key term in the transmission line equations, are obtained by RLGC, furthermore, according to input admittance, admittance matrix and ABCD matrix of transmission lines, the lumped equivalent circuit models, π-networks and T-networks have been given. The models are verified in the frequency and time domain, respectively, showing that the models are accurate and efficient. (semiconductor integrated circuits)

  16. Determining the prediction limits of models and classifiers with applications for disruption prediction in JET

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murari, A.; Peluso, E.; Vega, J.; Gelfusa, M.; Lungaroni, M.; Gaudio, P.; Martínez, F. J.; Contributors, JET

    2017-01-01

    Understanding the many aspects of tokamak physics requires the development of quite sophisticated models. Moreover, in the operation of the devices, prediction of the future evolution of discharges can be of crucial importance, particularly in the case of the prediction of disruptions, which can cause serious damage to various parts of the machine. The determination of the limits of predictability is therefore an important issue for modelling, classifying and forecasting. In all these cases, once a certain level of performance has been reached, the question typically arises as to whether all the information available in the data has been exploited, or whether there are still margins for improvement of the tools being developed. In this paper, a theoretical information approach is proposed to address this issue. The excellent properties of the developed indicator, called the prediction factor (PF), have been proved with the help of a series of numerical tests. Its application to some typical behaviour relating to macroscopic instabilities in tokamaks has shown very positive results. The prediction factor has also been used to assess the performance of disruption predictors running in real time in the JET system, including the one systematically deployed in the feedback loop for mitigation purposes. The main conclusion is that the most advanced predictors basically exploit all the information contained in the locked mode signal on which they are based. Therefore, qualitative improvements in disruption prediction performance in JET would need the processing of additional signals, probably profiles.

  17. Predictive Model of Systemic Toxicity (SOT)

    Science.gov (United States)

    In an effort to ensure chemical safety in light of regulatory advances away from reliance on animal testing, USEPA and L’Oréal have collaborated to develop a quantitative systemic toxicity prediction model. Prediction of human systemic toxicity has proved difficult and remains a ...

  18. Testicular Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of testicular cervical cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  19. Pancreatic Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing pancreatic cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  20. Colorectal Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing colorectal cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  1. Prostate Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing prostate cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  2. Bladder Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing bladder cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  3. Esophageal Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing esophageal cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  4. Cervical Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing cervical cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  5. Breast Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing breast cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  6. Lung Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing lung cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  7. Liver Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing liver cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  8. Ovarian Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing ovarian cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  9. Grassland Production Change Due Comparison of NPP Estimates by Theoretical Model and Satellite Data from MODIS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, E. E.; Oliveira, J. D. C.; Lamparelli, R.; Soares, J.; Monteiro, L. A.; Jaiswal, D.; Sheehan, J. J.; Figueiredo, G. K. D. A.; Lynd, L. R.

    2017-12-01

    Accessing the changes in net primary production (NPP) from grassland in the globe has important applications, e.g. can identify where land have been degraded or in opposite site have been intensified. The aim of this study is to identify the changes occurred in grassland production due management practices and climate change. A recent comparison between a theoretical model of aboveground NPP and satellite data will be performed for the years 2000 to 2003. The theoretical model links NPP to climate, defined as total annual rainfall. Satellite data will use the total annual NPP from MODIS sensor (MOD17A3), that each pixel (spatial resolution of 1 km) include biome type information, daily meteorological data and the fraction absorbed of photosynthetic active radiation (FPAR) and leaf area index (LAI). Both NPP results were set in pastureland that is occupied by ruminants based on year 2000. The correlation between total NPP's values on year 2000 was 0.77. Therefore, the change in the differences between these models can reflect management practices and climate change impacts on grassland biomass production and also the reasonability of using both databases for predicting yield gap. The different from both NPP estimates will be then classified in three groups: no significant difference, significant increase and significant decrease. The outcome results will show the fluctuations in biomass from grassland worldwide. The regions with ongoing pasture degradation will be indentified, and can suggest a need for improvement. In the other hand, pastureland with significant increase in biomass will offer an example of intensification potential. The tendency of the pastureland in each region can give a support for policy makers in order to achieve a sustainability use of the land. Financial Support: FAPESP process 2017/06037-4, 2016/08741-8, 2017/08970-0, 2016/08742-4 and 2014/26767-9

  10. A theoretical model for gas permeability in a composite membrane

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Serrano, D. A

    2009-01-01

    We present in this work an analytical expression for permeability in a two-layer composite membrane, which was derived assuming the same hypothesis as those of Adzumi model for permeability in a homogeneous membrane. Whereas in Adzumi model permeability shows a linear dependence on the mean pressure, our model for a composite membrane related permeability to pressure through a rather complex expression, which covers the whole range of flow, from molecular-Knudsen to viscous-Poiseuille regimes. The expression obtained for permeability contained information of membrane structural properties as pore size, porosity and thickness of each layer, as well as gas nature and operational conditions. Our two-layer-model expression turns into Adzumi formula when the structure of the layers approach to each other. [es

  11. Posterior Predictive Model Checking in Bayesian Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crawford, Aaron

    2014-01-01

    This simulation study compared the utility of various discrepancy measures within a posterior predictive model checking (PPMC) framework for detecting different types of data-model misfit in multidimensional Bayesian network (BN) models. The investigated conditions were motivated by an applied research program utilizing an operational complex…

  12. Theoretical tornado vortex model for nuclear plant design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sun, C.N.; Barnett, R.O.; Burdette, E.G.

    1977-01-01

    A simplified tornado vortex model is defined using fluid dynamics theory. Beginning with the Navier-Stokes equations of motion for an incompressible fluid and simpifying in a way consistent with a tornado wind field, develops the well-known cyclostrophic wind equation referred to by Hoecker and another equation which defines the tangential velocity profile. Together, they define a simplified tornado vertex model of which the Rankine and Hoecker vortices are special cases. Practical implications of the results obtained are discussed. (Auth.)

  13. Design theoretic analysis of three system modeling frameworks.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McDonald, Michael James

    2007-05-01

    This paper analyzes three simulation architectures from the context of modeling scalability to address System of System (SoS) and Complex System problems. The paper first provides an overview of the SoS problem domain and reviews past work in analyzing model and general system complexity issues. It then identifies and explores the issues of vertical and horizontal integration as well as coupling and hierarchical decomposition as the system characteristics and metrics against which the tools are evaluated. In addition, it applies Nam Suh's Axiomatic Design theory as a construct for understanding coupling and its relationship to system feasibility. Next it describes the application of MATLAB, Swarm, and Umbra (three modeling and simulation approaches) to modeling swarms of Unmanned Flying Vehicle (UAV) agents in relation to the chosen characteristics and metrics. Finally, it draws general conclusions for analyzing model architectures that go beyond those analyzed. In particular, it identifies decomposition along phenomena of interaction and modular system composition as enabling features for modeling large heterogeneous complex systems.

  14. Theoretic models for recommendation and implementation of assistive technology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Cristina de Jesus Alves

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: The latest international researches seek to understand the factors affecting the successful use of assistive technology devices through studies regarding the assessments systematizing; abandonment of devices; or theoric models that consider the aspects of those devices implementation. In Brazil the researches are focused on developing new technologies and there are still not sufficient studies related to the successful use of devices and ways of assistive technology implementation. Objective: To identify conceptual models used for indication and implementation of assistive technology devices. Method: Literature review. The survey was conducted in six databases: CINAHAL, Eric, GALE, LILACS, MEDLINE e PsycInfo. A critical analysis described by Grant and Booth was used. Results: There are no records of a Brazilian survey and among 29 selected articles, 17 conceptual models used in the area of AT were found; of these, 14 were specific to AT. The results showed that the new conceptual models of TA are under development and the conceptual model “Matching Person and Technology – MPT” was the most mentioned. Conclusion: We can observe that the practices related to TA area in international context shows a correlation with conceptual models, thus, we hope this study might have the capacity to contribute for the propagation of this precepts at national level

  15. Theoretical modelling and experimental study of air thermal conditioning process of a heat pump assisted solid desiccant cooling system

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nie, Jinzhe; Li, Zan; Hu, Wenju

    2017-01-01

    purification aimed at improving indoor air quality and reducing building energy consumption. The heat and moisture transfer in adsorption desiccant rotor was theoretical modelled with one-dimensional partial differential equations. The theoretical model was validated with experimental measurements......Taking the integrated gaseous contaminants and moisture adsorption potential of desiccant material, a new heat pump assisted solid desiccant cooling system (HP-SDC) was proposed based on the combination of desiccant rotor with heat pump. The HP-SDC was designed for dehumidification, cooling and air......, and the results showed the model could be used to predict the heat and moisture transfer in desiccant rotor. The air thermal conditioning process and energy consumption of HP-SDC was then experimental measured under varied outdoor thermal environments. Results showed that compared to conventional ventilation...

  16. Predicting and Modeling RNA Architecture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westhof, Eric; Masquida, Benoît; Jossinet, Fabrice

    2011-01-01

    SUMMARY A general approach for modeling the architecture of large and structured RNA molecules is described. The method exploits the modularity and the hierarchical folding of RNA architecture that is viewed as the assembly of preformed double-stranded helices defined by Watson-Crick base pairs and RNA modules maintained by non-Watson-Crick base pairs. Despite the extensive molecular neutrality observed in RNA structures, specificity in RNA folding is achieved through global constraints like lengths of helices, coaxiality of helical stacks, and structures adopted at the junctions of helices. The Assemble integrated suite of computer tools allows for sequence and structure analysis as well as interactive modeling by homology or ab initio assembly with possibilities for fitting within electronic density maps. The local key role of non-Watson-Crick pairs guides RNA architecture formation and offers metrics for assessing the accuracy of three-dimensional models in a more useful way than usual root mean square deviation (RMSD) values. PMID:20504963

  17. Multiple Steps Prediction with Nonlinear ARX Models

    OpenAIRE

    Zhang, Qinghua; Ljung, Lennart

    2007-01-01

    NLARX (NonLinear AutoRegressive with eXogenous inputs) models are frequently used in black-box nonlinear system identication. Though it is easy to make one step ahead prediction with such models, multiple steps prediction is far from trivial. The main difficulty is that in general there is no easy way to compute the mathematical expectation of an output conditioned by past measurements. An optimal solution would require intensive numerical computations related to nonlinear filltering. The pur...

  18. The protective action decision model: theoretical modifications and additional evidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindell, Michael K; Perry, Ronald W

    2012-04-01

    The Protective Action Decision Model (PADM) is a multistage model that is based on findings from research on people's responses to environmental hazards and disasters. The PADM integrates the processing of information derived from social and environmental cues with messages that social sources transmit through communication channels to those at risk. The PADM identifies three critical predecision processes (reception, attention, and comprehension of warnings or exposure, attention, and interpretation of environmental/social cues)--that precede all further processing. The revised model identifies three core perceptions--threat perceptions, protective action perceptions, and stakeholder perceptions--that form the basis for decisions about how to respond to an imminent or long-term threat. The outcome of the protective action decision-making process, together with situational facilitators and impediments, produces a behavioral response. In addition to describing the revised model and the research on which it is based, this article describes three applications (development of risk communication programs, evacuation modeling, and adoption of long-term hazard adjustments) and identifies some of the research needed to address unresolved issues. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

  19. Predictability of extreme values in geophysical models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. E. Sterk

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Extreme value theory in deterministic systems is concerned with unlikely large (or small values of an observable evaluated along evolutions of the system. In this paper we study the finite-time predictability of extreme values, such as convection, energy, and wind speeds, in three geophysical models. We study whether finite-time Lyapunov exponents are larger or smaller for initial conditions leading to extremes. General statements on whether extreme values are better or less predictable are not possible: the predictability of extreme values depends on the observable, the attractor of the system, and the prediction lead time.

  20. Theoretical model and simulations for a cw exciplex pumped alkali laser.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Wei; Tan, Rongqing; Li, Zhiyong; Lu, Xiaochuan

    2015-12-14

    The Exciplex Pumped Alkali Laser (XPAL) system, which is similar to DPAL (Diode Pumped Alkali vapor Laser), has been demonstrated in mixtures of Cs vapor, Ar, with and without ethane. Unlike DPAL, it uses the broadband absorption blue satellite of the alkali D2 line, created by naturally occuring collision pairs. For example, Cs-Ar collision pairs have an absorption width which is as wide as the one of commercial semiconductor diode lasers. A continuous wave XPAL four-level theoretical model is presented in this paper. More factors are considered, such as the spectral dependence of pumped laser absorption for broadband pumping and the longitudinal population variation. Some intra-cavity details, such as longitudinal distributions of pumped laser and alkali laser, can also be solved well. The predictions of optical-to-optical efficiency as a function of temperature and pumped laser intensity are presented. The model predicts that there is an optimum value of temperature or pumped laser intensity. The analysis of the influence of cell length on optical-to-optical efficiency shows that a better performance can be achieved when using longer cell. The prediction of influence of Ar concentration and reflectivity of output coupler shows that higher optical-to-optical efficiency could be achieved if lower reflectivity of output coupler and higher Ar concentration are used. The optical-to-optical efficiency as high as 84% achieved by optimizing configuration with the pumped intensity of 5 × 10⁷ W/cm² presented shows that broadband pumped four-level XPAL system has a potential of high optical-to-optical efficiency.

  1. A game-theoretical model of private power production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xing, W.; Wu, F.F.

    2001-01-01

    Private power production has sprung up all over the world. The build-operate-transfer (BOT) arrangement has emerged as one of the most important options for private power production, especially in developing countries with rapidly growing demand and financial shortages. Based on oligopoly theory, the paper proposes a Stackelberg game model between a BOT investor and an electric utility whereby they can negotiate a long-term energy contract. Asymmetric pricing schemes are taken into account such that a host utility purchases electricity from a BOT company at its ''avoided cost'', and sells its electricity to end users at its ''average cost''. Our Stackelberg game model is transferred into a two-level optimization problem, and then solved by an iterative algorithm. The game model is demonstrated by an illustrative example. (author)

  2. Model complexity control for hydrologic prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schoups, G.; van de Giesen, N. C.; Savenije, H. H. G.

    2008-12-01

    A common concern in hydrologic modeling is overparameterization of complex models given limited and noisy data. This leads to problems of parameter nonuniqueness and equifinality, which may negatively affect prediction uncertainties. A systematic way of controlling model complexity is therefore needed. We compare three model complexity control methods for hydrologic prediction, namely, cross validation (CV), Akaike's information criterion (AIC), and structural risk minimization (SRM). Results show that simulation of water flow using non-physically-based models (polynomials in this case) leads to increasingly better calibration fits as the model complexity (polynomial order) increases. However, prediction uncertainty worsens for complex non-physically-based models because of overfitting of noisy data. Incorporation of physically based constraints into the model (e.g., storage-discharge relationship) effectively bounds prediction uncertainty, even as the number of parameters increases. The conclusion is that overparameterization and equifinality do not lead to a continued increase in prediction uncertainty, as long as models are constrained by such physical principles. Complexity control of hydrologic models reduces parameter equifinality and identifies the simplest model that adequately explains the data, thereby providing a means of hydrologic generalization and classification. SRM is a promising technique for this purpose, as it (1) provides analytic upper bounds on prediction uncertainty, hence avoiding the computational burden of CV, and (2) extends the applicability of classic methods such as AIC to finite data. The main hurdle in applying SRM is the need for an a priori estimation of the complexity of the hydrologic model, as measured by its Vapnik-Chernovenkis (VC) dimension. Further research is needed in this area.

  3. Theoretical models in the development of advertising for food products

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bech-Larsen, Tino; Stacey, Julia

    2005-01-01

    the advertisement influences the target may serve as creative inspiration and as a common frame of reference for those involved in the development of advertisements. The means-end-chain model says that an advertisement is effective by connecting the product's attributes (means) and the target's personal values...... apples. One proposal, which is based on the meansendchain model, tries to establish a connection between the vitamin and energy content of apples and the personal value: quality of life. The other one is made in the traditional fashion, ie without the use of theoreticalmodels. Its message is that apples...

  4. Quantifying predictive accuracy in survival models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lirette, Seth T; Aban, Inmaculada

    2017-12-01

    For time-to-event outcomes in medical research, survival models are the most appropriate to use. Unlike logistic regression models, quantifying the predictive accuracy of these models is not a trivial task. We present the classes of concordance (C) statistics and R 2 statistics often used to assess the predictive ability of these models. The discussion focuses on Harrell's C, Kent and O'Quigley's R 2 , and Royston and Sauerbrei's R 2 . We present similarities and differences between the statistics, discuss the software options from the most widely used statistical analysis packages, and give a practical example using the Worcester Heart Attack Study dataset.

  5. Theoretical Modeling of Mechanical Behavior and Release Properties of Microcapsules

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sagis, L.M.C.

    2015-01-01

    Microcapsules in food often have a shell with a complex microstructure; the mechanical and structural properties of these shells affect the response of the capsules to deforming forces and the release kinetics of encapsulated components. In this chapter we will discuss a number of models which are

  6. A theoretical and empirical model for soil conservation using ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper illuminates the practice of indigenous soil conservation among Mamasani farmers in Fars province in Iran. Bos's decision making model was used as a conceptual framework for the study. A qualitative paradigm was used as research methodology. Qualitative techniques were: Mind Mapping, RRA ...

  7. An Alternative Theoretical Model for Economic Reforms in Africa ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper offers an alternative model for economic reforms in Africa. It proposes that Africa can still get on the pathway of sustained economic growth if economic reforms can focus on a key variable, namely, the price of non-tradables. Prices of non-tradables are generally less in Africa than in advanced economies, and the ...

  8. Simple Brownian diffusion an introduction to the standard theoretical models

    CERN Document Server

    Gillespie, Daniel T

    2013-01-01

    Brownian diffusion, the motion of large molecules in a sea of very many much smaller molecules, is topical because it is one of the ways in which biologically important molecules move about inside living cells. This book presents the mathematical physics that underlies the four simplest models of Brownian diffusion.

  9. A coordination theoretic model for three level supply chains using ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    the contract renewal time, the supply chain nervousness can be reduced. A pricing model is formulated to address partnership expectations for a fair sharing of savings of the supply chain members. ...... the level of optimality and robustness of a given strategy (Terzi & Cavalieri 2004). Simulation may be used to capture ...

  10. Model United Nations and Deep Learning: Theoretical and Professional Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engel, Susan; Pallas, Josh; Lambert, Sarah

    2017-01-01

    This article demonstrates that the purposeful subject design, incorporating a Model United Nations (MUN), facilitated deep learning and professional skills attainment in the field of International Relations. Deep learning was promoted in subject design by linking learning objectives to Anderson and Krathwohl's (2001) four levels of knowledge or…

  11. Theoretical models for ultrashort electromagnetic pulse propagation in nonlinear metamaterials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wen, Shuangchun; Xiang, Yuanjiang; Dai, Xiaoyu; Tang, Zhixiang; Su, Wenhua; Fan, Dianyuan

    2007-01-01

    A metamaterial (MM) differs from an ordinary optical material mainly in that it has a dispersive magnetic permeability and offers greatly enhanced design freedom to alter the linear and nonlinear properties. This makes it possible for us to control the propagation of ultrashort electromagnetic pulses at will. Here we report on generic features of ultrashort electromagnetic pulse propagation and demonstrate the controllability of both the linear and nonlinear parameters of models for pulse propagation in MMs. First, we derive a generalized system of coupled three-dimensional nonlinear Schroedinger equations (NLSEs) suitable for few-cycle pulse propagation in a MM with both nonlinear electric polarization and nonlinear magnetization. The coupled equations recover previous models for pulse propagation in both ordinary material and a MM under the same conditions. Second, by using the coupled NLSEs in the Drude dispersive model as an example, we identify the respective roles of the dispersive electric permittivity and magnetic permeability in ultrashort pulse propagation and disclose some additional features of pulse propagation in MMs. It is shown that, for linear propagation, the sign and magnitude of space-time focusing can be controlled through adjusting the linear dispersive permittivity and permeability. For nonlinear propagation, the linear dispersive permittivity and permeability are incorporated into the nonlinear magnetization and nonlinear polarization, respectively, resulting in controllable magnetic and electric self-steepening effects and higher-order dispersively nonlinear terms in the propagation models

  12. Return Predictability, Model Uncertainty, and Robust Investment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lukas, Manuel

    Stock return predictability is subject to great uncertainty. In this paper we use the model confidence set approach to quantify uncertainty about expected utility from investment, accounting for potential return predictability. For monthly US data and six representative return prediction models, we...... find that confidence sets are very wide, change significantly with the predictor variables, and frequently include expected utilities for which the investor prefers not to invest. The latter motivates a robust investment strategy maximizing the minimal element of the confidence set. The robust investor...... allocates a much lower share of wealth to stocks compared to a standard investor....

  13. Information density converges in dialogue: Towards an information-theoretic model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Yang; Reitter, David

    2018-01-01

    The principle of entropy rate constancy (ERC) states that language users distribute information such that words tend to be equally predictable given previous contexts. We examine the applicability of this principle to spoken dialogue, as previous findings primarily rest on written text. The study takes into account the joint-activity nature of dialogue and the topic shift mechanisms that are different from monologue. It examines how the information contributions from the two dialogue partners interactively evolve as the discourse develops. The increase of local sentence-level information density (predicted by ERC) is shown to apply to dialogue overall. However, when the different roles of interlocutors in introducing new topics are identified, their contribution in information content displays a new converging pattern. We draw explanations to this pattern from multiple perspectives: Casting dialogue as an information exchange system would mean that the pattern is the result of two interlocutors maintaining their own context rather than sharing one. Second, we present some empirical evidence that a model of Interactive Alignment may include information density to explain the effect. Third, we argue that building common ground is a process analogous to information convergence. Thus, we put forward an information-theoretic view of dialogue, under which some existing theories of human dialogue may eventually be unified. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. Ion current prediction model considering columnar recombination in alpha radioactivity measurement using ionized air transportation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Naito, Susumu; Hirata, Yosuke; Izumi, Mikio; Sano, Akira; Miyamoto, Yasuaki; Aoyama, Yoshio; Yamaguchi, Hiromi

    2007-01-01

    We present a reinforced ion current prediction model in alpha radioactivity measurement using ionized air transportation. Although our previous model explained the qualitative trend of the measured ion current values, the absolute values of the theoretical curves were about two times as large as the measured values. In order to accurately predict the measured values, we reinforced our model by considering columnar recombination and turbulent diffusion, which affects columnar recombination. Our new model explained the considerable ion loss in the early stage of ion diffusion and narrowed the gap between the theoretical and measured values. The model also predicted suppression of ion loss due to columnar recombination by spraying a high-speed air flow near a contaminated surface. This suppression was experimentally investigated and confirmed. In conclusion, we quantitatively clarified the theoretical relation between alpha radioactivity and ion current in laminar flow and turbulent pipe flow. (author)

  15. On theoretical models of gene expression evolution with random genetic drift and natural selection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ogasawara, Osamu; Okubo, Kousaku

    2009-11-20

    The relative contributions of natural selection and random genetic drift are a major source of debate in the study of gene expression evolution, which is hypothesized to serve as a bridge from molecular to phenotypic evolution. It has been suggested that the conflict between views is caused by the lack of a definite model of the neutral hypothesis, which can describe the long-run behavior of evolutionary change in mRNA abundance. Therefore previous studies have used inadequate analogies with the neutral prediction of other phenomena, such as amino acid or nucleotide sequence evolution, as the null hypothesis of their statistical inference. In this study, we introduced two novel theoretical models, one based on neutral drift and the other assuming natural selection, by focusing on a common property of the distribution of mRNA abundance among a variety of eukaryotic cells, which reflects the result of long-term evolution. Our results demonstrated that (1) our models can reproduce two independently found phenomena simultaneously: the time development of gene expression divergence and Zipf's law of the transcriptome; (2) cytological constraints can be explicitly formulated to describe long-term evolution; (3) the model assuming that natural selection optimized relative mRNA abundance was more consistent with previously published observations than the model of optimized absolute mRNA abundances. The models introduced in this study give a formulation of evolutionary change in the mRNA abundance of each gene as a stochastic process, on the basis of previously published observations. This model provides a foundation for interpreting observed data in studies of gene expression evolution, including identifying an adequate time scale for discriminating the effect of natural selection from that of random genetic drift of selectively neutral variations.

  16. Accuracy assessment of landslide prediction models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Othman, A N; Mohd, W M N W; Noraini, S

    2014-01-01

    The increasing population and expansion of settlements over hilly areas has greatly increased the impact of natural disasters such as landslide. Therefore, it is important to developed models which could accurately predict landslide hazard zones. Over the years, various techniques and models have been developed to predict landslide hazard zones. The aim of this paper is to access the accuracy of landslide prediction models developed by the authors. The methodology involved the selection of study area, data acquisition, data processing and model development and also data analysis. The development of these models are based on nine different landslide inducing parameters i.e. slope, land use, lithology, soil properties, geomorphology, flow accumulation, aspect, proximity to river and proximity to road. Rank sum, rating, pairwise comparison and AHP techniques are used to determine the weights for each of the parameters used. Four (4) different models which consider different parameter combinations are developed by the authors. Results obtained are compared to landslide history and accuracies for Model 1, Model 2, Model 3 and Model 4 are 66.7, 66.7%, 60% and 22.9% respectively. From the results, rank sum, rating and pairwise comparison can be useful techniques to predict landslide hazard zones

  17. Search for an interstellar Si2C molecule: A theoretical prediction

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Very little information about this molecule is known. Theoretical study of the structure of Si2C has been carried out by some scientists. In the event of observation of Si2C in interstellar medium, information about spectra of the molecule is essentially needed. Since temperature in interstellar molecular clouds is generally low, ...

  18. Theoretical Modeling of 99 Tc NMR Chemical Shifts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hall, Gabriel B.; Andersen, Amity; Washton, Nancy M.; Chatterjee, Sayandev; Levitskaia, Tatiana G.

    2016-09-06

    Technetium (Tc) displays a rich chemistry due to the wide range of oxidation states (from -I to +VII) and ability to form coordination compounds. Determination of Tc speciation in complex mixtures is a major challenge, and 99Tc NMR spec-troscopy is widely used to probe chemical environments of Tc in odd oxidation states. However interpretation of the 99Tc NMR data is hindered by the lack of reference compounds. DFT computations can help fill this gap, but to date few com-putational studies have focused on 99Tc NMR of compounds and complexes. This work systematically evaluates the inclu-sion small percentages of Hartree-Fock exchange correlation and relativistic effects in DFT computations to support in-terpretation of the 99Tc NMR spectra. Hybrid functionals are found to perform better than their pure GGA counterparts, and non-relativistic calculations have been found to generally show a lower mean absolute deviation from experiment. Overall non-relativistic PBE0 and B3PW91 calculations are found to most accurately predict 99Tc NMR chemical shifts.

  19. Theoretical model of the early phases of an underground explosion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cameron, I.G.; Scorgie, G.C.

    1970-01-01

    Introduction In the early phases of the intense underground explosions contemplated in peaceful applications the rock near the explosive exhibits fluid behaviour; at great distances its behaviour can usefully be investigated in terms of linear elasticity; and at intermediate distances we think of a solid exhibiting various inelastic effects including cracking and tensile fracture. The present paper outlines a mathematical model that attempts to include in some degree the main features of this range of behaviour. A more detailed treatment than is given here, and its relationship to the work of others, is given in a paper by the authors. A computer program ATHENE has been written based on this model and its use is illustrated by examining some aspects of two types of explosions. One is a chemical explosion which eventually formed a crater and the other a nuclear explosion which remained wholly contained

  20. Choice of theoretical model for beam scattering at accelerator output foil for particle energy determination

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Balagyra, V.S.; Ryabka, P.M.

    1999-01-01

    For measuring the charged particle energy calculations of mean square angles of electron beam multiple Coulomb scattering at output combined accelerator target were undertaken according to seven theoretical models. Mollier method showed the best agreement with experiments

  1. Theoretical modeling of infrared spectra of twinned lead zirconate

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Dočekalová, Zuzana; Pasciak, Marek; Hlinka, Jiří

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 90, č. 1 (2017), s. 17-23 ISSN 0141-1594 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA15-04121S Institutional support: RVO:68378271 Keywords : domains * IR spectroscopy * dielectric permittivity * lead zirconate * shell model * Born effective charge Subject RIV: BM - Solid Matter Physics ; Magnetism OBOR OECD: Condensed matter physics (including formerly solid state physics, supercond.) Impact factor: 1.060, year: 2016

  2. System of systems dependability – Theoretical models and applications examples

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bukowski, L.

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this article is to generalise the concept of "dependability" in a way, that could be applied to all types of systems, especially the system of systems (SoS), operating under both normal and abnormal work conditions. In order to quantitatively assess the dependability we applied service continuity oriented approach. This approach is based on the methodology of service engineering and is closely related to the idea of resilient enterprise as well as to the concept of disruption-tolerant operation. On this basis a framework for evaluation of SoS dependability has been developed in a static as well as dynamic approach. The static model is created as a fuzzy logic-oriented advisory expert system and can be particularly useful at the design stage of SoS. The dynamic model is based on the risk oriented approach, and can be useful both at the design stage and for management of SoS. The integrated model of dependability can also form the basis for a new definition of the dependability engineering, namely as a superior discipline to reliability engineering, safety engineering, security engineering, resilience engineering and risk engineering. - Highlights: • A framework for evaluation of system of systems dependability is presented. • The model is based on the service continuity concept and consists of two parts. • The static part can be created as a fuzzy logic-oriented advisory expert system. • The dynamic, risk oriented part, is related to the concept of throughput chain. • A new definition of dependability engineering is proposed.

  3. Testing theoretical models of subdwarf B stars using multicolor photometry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reed, Mike; Baran, Andrzej; Ostensen, Roy; O'Toole, Simon

    2012-08-01

    Pulsating stars allow a direct investigation of their structure and evolutionary history from the evaluation of pulsation modes. However, the observed pulsation frequencies must first be identified with spherical harmonics (modes). For subdwarfs B (sdB) stars, such identifications using white light photometry currently have significant limitations. We intend to use multicolor photometry to identify pulsation modes and constrain structure models. We propose to observe the pulsating sdB star PG0154+182 (BI Ari) with our multicolor instrument GT Cam. Our observations will be compared with perturbative atmospheric models (BRUCE/KYLIE) to identify the pulsation modes. This is part of our NSF grant to obtain seismic tools to test structure and evolution models; constraining stellar parameters including total mass, envelope mass, internal composition discontinuities and internal rotation. During winter/spring 2012, we were allocated three runs on the 2.1 m to collect multicolor data on other promising pulsating subdwarf B stars as part of this work. Those runs were very successful, prompting our continued proposals. In addition, we will obtain 3-color data using MAIA on the Mercator Telescope (using guaranteed institutional time).

  4. Modeling postpartum depression in rats: theoretic and methodological issues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ming, LI; Shinn-Yi, CHOU

    2016-01-01

    The postpartum period is when a host of changes occur at molecular, cellular, physiological and behavioral levels to prepare female humans for the challenge of maternity. Alteration or prevention of these normal adaptions is thought to contribute to disruptions of emotion regulation, motivation and cognitive abilities that underlie postpartum mental disorders, such as postpartum depression. Despite the high incidence of this disorder, and the detrimental consequences for both mother and child, its etiology and related neurobiological mechanisms remain poorly understood, partially due to the lack of appropriate animal models. In recent decades, there have been a number of attempts to model postpartum depression disorder in rats. In the present review, we first describe clinical symptoms of postpartum depression and discuss known risk factors, including both genetic and environmental factors. Thereafter, we discuss various rat models that have been developed to capture various aspects of this disorder and knowledge gained from such attempts. In doing so, we focus on the theories behind each attempt and the methods used to achieve their goals. Finally, we point out several understudied areas in this field and make suggestions for future directions. PMID:27469254

  5. A Theoretical Model for the Associative Nature of Conference Participation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jelena Smiljanić

    Full Text Available Participation in conferences is an important part of every scientific career. Conferences provide an opportunity for a fast dissemination of latest results, discussion and exchange of ideas, and broadening of scientists' collaboration network. The decision to participate in a conference depends on several factors like the location, cost, popularity of keynote speakers, and the scientist's association with the community. Here we discuss and formulate the problem of discovering how a scientist's previous participation affects her/his future participations in the same conference series. We develop a stochastic model to examine scientists' participation patterns in conferences and compare our model with data from six conferences across various scientific fields and communities. Our model shows that the probability for a scientist to participate in a given conference series strongly depends on the balance between the number of participations and non-participations during his/her early connections with the community. An active participation in a conference series strengthens the scientist's association with that particular conference community and thus increases the probability of future participations.

  6. Predicting People's Environmental Behaviour: Theory of Planned Behaviour and Model of Responsible Environmental Behaviour

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chao, Yu-Long

    2012-01-01

    Using different measures of self-reported and other-reported environmental behaviour (EB), two important theoretical models explaining EB--Hines, Hungerford and Tomera's model of responsible environmental behaviour (REB) and Ajzen's theory of planned behaviour (TPB)--were compared regarding the fit between model and data, predictive ability,…

  7. Predictive validation of an influenza spread model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ayaz Hyder

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Modeling plays a critical role in mitigating impacts of seasonal influenza epidemics. Complex simulation models are currently at the forefront of evaluating optimal mitigation strategies at multiple scales and levels of organization. Given their evaluative role, these models remain limited in their ability to predict and forecast future epidemics leading some researchers and public-health practitioners to question their usefulness. The objective of this study is to evaluate the predictive ability of an existing complex simulation model of influenza spread. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used extensive data on past epidemics to demonstrate the process of predictive validation. This involved generalizing an individual-based model for influenza spread and fitting it to laboratory-confirmed influenza infection data from a single observed epidemic (1998-1999. Next, we used the fitted model and modified two of its parameters based on data on real-world perturbations (vaccination coverage by age group and strain type. Simulating epidemics under these changes allowed us to estimate the deviation/error between the expected epidemic curve under perturbation and observed epidemics taking place from 1999 to 2006. Our model was able to forecast absolute intensity and epidemic peak week several weeks earlier with reasonable reliability and depended on the method of forecasting-static or dynamic. CONCLUSIONS: Good predictive ability of influenza epidemics is critical for implementing mitigation strategies in an effective and timely manner. Through the process of predictive validation applied to a current complex simulation model of influenza spread, we provided users of the model (e.g. public-health officials and policy-makers with quantitative metrics and practical recommendations on mitigating impacts of seasonal influenza epidemics. This methodology may be applied to other models of communicable infectious diseases to test and potentially improve

  8. Predictive Validation of an Influenza Spread Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hyder, Ayaz; Buckeridge, David L.; Leung, Brian

    2013-01-01

    Background Modeling plays a critical role in mitigating impacts of seasonal influenza epidemics. Complex simulation models are currently at the forefront of evaluating optimal mitigation strategies at multiple scales and levels of organization. Given their evaluative role, these models remain limited in their ability to predict and forecast future epidemics leading some researchers and public-health practitioners to question their usefulness. The objective of this study is to evaluate the predictive ability of an existing complex simulation model of influenza spread. Methods and Findings We used extensive data on past epidemics to demonstrate the process of predictive validation. This involved generalizing an individual-based model for influenza spread and fitting it to laboratory-confirmed influenza infection data from a single observed epidemic (1998–1999). Next, we used the fitted model and modified two of its parameters based on data on real-world perturbations (vaccination coverage by age group and strain type). Simulating epidemics under these changes allowed us to estimate the deviation/error between the expected epidemic curve under perturbation and observed epidemics taking place from 1999 to 2006. Our model was able to forecast absolute intensity and epidemic peak week several weeks earlier with reasonable reliability and depended on the method of forecasting-static or dynamic. Conclusions Good predictive ability of influenza epidemics is critical for implementing mitigation strategies in an effective and timely manner. Through the process of predictive validation applied to a current complex simulation model of influenza spread, we provided users of the model (e.g. public-health officials and policy-makers) with quantitative metrics and practical recommendations on mitigating impacts of seasonal influenza epidemics. This methodology may be applied to other models of communicable infectious diseases to test and potentially improve their predictive

  9. Modelling the electrical properties of concrete for shielding effectiveness prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sandrolini, L; Reggiani, U; Ogunsola, A

    2007-01-01

    Concrete is a porous, heterogeneous material whose abundant use in numerous applications demands a detailed understanding of its electrical properties. Besides experimental measurements, material theoretical models can be useful to investigate its behaviour with respect to frequency, moisture content or other factors. These models can be used in electromagnetic compatibility (EMC) to predict the shielding effectiveness of a concrete structure against external electromagnetic waves. This paper presents the development of a dispersive material model for concrete out of experimental measurement data to take account of the frequency dependence of concrete's electrical properties. The model is implemented into a numerical simulator and compared with the classical transmission-line approach in shielding effectiveness calculations of simple concrete walls of different moisture content. The comparative results show good agreement in all cases; a possible relation between shielding effectiveness and the electrical properties of concrete and the limits of the proposed model are discussed

  10. Modelling the electrical properties of concrete for shielding effectiveness prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sandrolini, L.; Reggiani, U.; Ogunsola, A.

    2007-09-01

    Concrete is a porous, heterogeneous material whose abundant use in numerous applications demands a detailed understanding of its electrical properties. Besides experimental measurements, material theoretical models can be useful to investigate its behaviour with respect to frequency, moisture content or other factors. These models can be used in electromagnetic compatibility (EMC) to predict the shielding effectiveness of a concrete structure against external electromagnetic waves. This paper presents the development of a dispersive material model for concrete out of experimental measurement data to take account of the frequency dependence of concrete's electrical properties. The model is implemented into a numerical simulator and compared with the classical transmission-line approach in shielding effectiveness calculations of simple concrete walls of different moisture content. The comparative results show good agreement in all cases; a possible relation between shielding effectiveness and the electrical properties of concrete and the limits of the proposed model are discussed.

  11. Gatekeeper Training for Suicide Prevention: A Theoretical Model and Review of the Empirical Literature

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-01-01

    among exposed teens . Of the exposed group, 2.5 percent reported having made a (first) suicide attempt during the 18 months of follow-up compared...Gatekeeper Training for Suicide Prevention A Theoretical Model and Review of the Empirical Literature Crystal Burnette, Rajeev Ramchand, Lynsay...REPORT TYPE 3. DATES COVERED 00-00-2015 to 00-00-2015 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Gatekeeper Training for Suicide Prevention: A Theoretical Model and

  12. NOOP: A Domain-Theoretic Model of Nominally-Typed OOP

    OpenAIRE

    AbdelGawad, Moez; Cartwright, Robert

    2018-01-01

    The majority of industrial-strength object-oriented (OO) software is written using nominally-typed OO programming languages. Extant domain-theoretic models of OOP developed to analyze OO type systems miss, however, a crucial feature of these mainstream OO languages: nominality. This paper presents the construction of NOOP as the first domain-theoretic model of OOP that includes full class/type names information found in nominally-typed OOP. Inclusion of nominal information in objects of NOOP ...

  13. 4. Valorizations of Theoretical Models of Giftedness and Talent in Defining of Artistic Talent

    OpenAIRE

    Anghel Ionica Ona

    2016-01-01

    Artistic talent has been defined in various contexts and registers a variety of meanings, more or less operational. From the perspective of pedagogical intervention, it is imperative understanding artistic talent trough the theoretical models of giftedness and talent. So, the aim of the study is to realize a review of the most popular of the theoretical models of giftedness and talent, with identification of the place of artistic talent and the new meanings that artistic talent has in each on...

  14. Measures of metacognition on signal-detection theoretic models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barrett, Adam B; Dienes, Zoltan; Seth, Anil K

    2013-12-01

    Analyzing metacognition, specifically knowledge of accuracy of internal perceptual, memorial, or other knowledge states, is vital for many strands of psychology, including determining the accuracy of feelings of knowing and discriminating conscious from unconscious cognition. Quantifying metacognitive sensitivity is however more challenging than quantifying basic stimulus sensitivity. Under popular signal-detection theory (SDT) models for stimulus classification tasks, approaches based on Type II receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curves or Type II d-prime risk confounding metacognition with response biases in either the Type I (classification) or Type II (metacognitive) tasks. A new approach introduces meta-d': The Type I d-prime that would have led to the observed Type II data had the subject used all the Type I information. Here, we (a) further establish the inconsistency of the Type II d-prime and ROC approaches with new explicit analyses of the standard SDT model and (b) analyze, for the first time, the behavior of meta-d' under nontrivial scenarios, such as when metacognitive judgments utilize enhanced or degraded versions of the Type I evidence. Analytically, meta-d' values typically reflect the underlying model well and are stable under changes in decision criteria; however, in relatively extreme cases, meta-d' can become unstable. We explore bias and variance of in-sample measurements of meta-d' and supply MATLAB code for estimation in general cases. Our results support meta-d' as a useful measure of metacognition and provide rigorous methodology for its application. Our recommendations are useful for any researchers interested in assessing metacognitive accuracy. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

  15. Theoretical modeling of the absorption spectrum of aqueous riboflavin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zanetti-Polzi, Laura; Aschi, Massimiliano; Daidone, Isabella; Amadei, Andrea

    2017-02-01

    In this study we report the modeling of the absorption spectrum of riboflavin in water using a hybrid quantum/classical mechanical approach, the MD-PMM methodology. By means of MD-PMM calculations, with which the effect of riboflavin internal motions and of solvent interactions on the spectroscopic properties can be explicitly taken into account, we obtain an absorption spectrum in very good agreement with the experimental spectrum. In particular, the calculated peak maxima show a consistent improvement with respect to previous computational approaches. Moreover, the calculations show that the interaction with the environment may cause a relevant recombination of the gas-phase electronic states.

  16. Testing theoretical models of magnetic damping using an air track

    OpenAIRE

    Vidaurre, Ana; Riera, Jaime; Monsoriu, Juan A.; Gimenez, Marcos H.

    2007-01-01

    Magnetic braking is a long-established application of Lenz's law. A rigorous analysis of the laws governing this problem involves solving Maxwell's equations in a time-dependent situation. Approximate models have been developed to describe different experiences related to this phenomenon. In this paper we present a new method for the analysis of the magnetic braking using a magnet fixed to the glider of an air track. The forces acting on the glider, a result of the eddy currents, can be easil...

  17. A theoretical study of a nickel SPND using Warren's model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mahant, A.K.; Rao, P.S.; Misra, S.C.

    1998-01-01

    Various parameters for a nickel SPND viz. neutron and gamma sensitivity, their dependence on detector dimensions, effect of activity build up during irradiation in the reactor on neutron sensitivity and burn up have been calculated using an analytical model by Warren and Shah. The results show that the main component of neutron sensitivity is due to neutron-induced capture gamma rays (99.93%). Delayed β signal is negligible and signal due to external gamma rays constitute about 0.06%. Low gamma sensitivity to external gamma rays, negligible activity buildup and low burn up rate make it a very promising prompt SPND for power reactors. (orig.)

  18. Theoretical Predictions of Springing and Their Comparison with Full Scale Measurements

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gu, X.; Storhaug, G.; Vidic-Perunovic, Jelena

    2003-01-01

    The present paper considers a large ocean going ship with significant springing responses, which have made a large contribution to the fatigue cracking for certain structural details. Four different theories for predicting ship responses and associated computer programs for predictions of springing...

  19. Polarimetric Signatures of Sea Ice. Part 1; Theoretical Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nghiem, S. V.; Kwok, R.; Yueh, S. H.; Drinkwater, M. R.

    1995-01-01

    Physical, structural, and electromagnetic properties and interrelating processes in sea ice are used to develop a composite model for polarimetric backscattering signatures of sea ice. Physical properties of sea ice constituents such as ice, brine, air, and salt are presented in terms of their effects on electromagnetic wave interactions. Sea ice structure and geometry of scatterers are related to wave propagation, attenuation, and scattering. Temperature and salinity, which are determining factors for the thermodynamic phase distribution in sea ice, are consistently used to derive both effective permittivities and polarimetric scattering coefficients. Polarimetric signatures of sea ice depend on crystal sizes and brine volumes, which are affected by ice growth rates. Desalination by brine expulsion, drainage, or other mechanisms modifies wave penetration and scattering. Sea ice signatures are further complicated by surface conditions such as rough interfaces, hummocks, snow cover, brine skim, or slush layer. Based on the same set of geophysical parameters characterizing sea ice, a composite model is developed to calculate effective permittivities and backscattering covariance matrices at microwave frequencies for interpretation of sea ice polarimetric signatures.

  20. Polarimetric signatures of sea ice. 1: Theoretical model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nghiem, S. V.; Kwok, R.; Yueh, S. H.; Drinkwater, M. R.

    1995-01-01

    Physical, structral, and electromagnetic properties and interrelating processes in sea ice are used to develop a composite model for polarimetric backscattering signatures of sea ice. Physical properties of sea ice constituents such as ice, brine, air, and salt are presented in terms of their effects on electromagnetic wave interactions. Sea ice structure and geometry of scatterers are related to wave propagation, attenuation, and scattering. Temperature and salinity, which are determining factors for the thermodynamic phase distribution in sea ice, are consistently used to derive both effective permittivities and polarimetric scattering coefficients. Polarmetric signatures of sea ice depend on crystal sizes and brine volumes, which are affected by ice growth rates. Desalination by brine expulsion, drainage, or other mechanisms modifies wave penetration and scattering. Sea ice signatures are further complicated by surface conditions such as rough interfaces, hummocks, snow cover, brine skim, or slush layer. Based on the same set of geophysical parameters characterizing sea ice, a composite model is developed to calculate effective permittivities and backscattering covariance matrices at microwave frequencies to interpretation of sea ice polarimetric signatures.

  1. Economic model predictive control theory, formulations and chemical process applications

    CERN Document Server

    Ellis, Matthew; Christofides, Panagiotis D

    2017-01-01

    This book presents general methods for the design of economic model predictive control (EMPC) systems for broad classes of nonlinear systems that address key theoretical and practical considerations including recursive feasibility, closed-loop stability, closed-loop performance, and computational efficiency. Specifically, the book proposes: Lyapunov-based EMPC methods for nonlinear systems; two-tier EMPC architectures that are highly computationally efficient; and EMPC schemes handling explicitly uncertainty, time-varying cost functions, time-delays and multiple-time-scale dynamics. The proposed methods employ a variety of tools ranging from nonlinear systems analysis, through Lyapunov-based control techniques to nonlinear dynamic optimization. The applicability and performance of the proposed methods are demonstrated through a number of chemical process examples. The book presents state-of-the-art methods for the design of economic model predictive control systems for chemical processes. In addition to being...

  2. Posterior predictive checking of multiple imputation models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, Cattram D; Lee, Katherine J; Carlin, John B

    2015-07-01

    Multiple imputation is gaining popularity as a strategy for handling missing data, but there is a scarcity of tools for checking imputation models, a critical step in model fitting. Posterior predictive checking (PPC) has been recommended as an imputation diagnostic. PPC involves simulating "replicated" data from the posterior predictive distribution of the model under scrutiny. Model fit is assessed by examining whether the analysis from the observed data appears typical of results obtained from the replicates produced by the model. A proposed diagnostic measure is the posterior predictive "p-value", an extreme value of which (i.e., a value close to 0 or 1) suggests a misfit between the model and the data. The aim of this study was to evaluate the performance of the posterior predictive p-value as an imputation diagnostic. Using simulation methods, we deliberately misspecified imputation models to determine whether posterior predictive p-values were effective in identifying these problems. When estimating the regression parameter of interest, we found that more extreme p-values were associated with poorer imputation model performance, although the results highlighted that traditional thresholds for classical p-values do not apply in this context. A shortcoming of the PPC method was its reduced ability to detect misspecified models with increasing amounts of missing data. Despite the limitations of posterior predictive p-values, they appear to have a valuable place in the imputer's toolkit. In addition to automated checking using p-values, we recommend imputers perform graphical checks and examine other summaries of the test quantity distribution. © 2015 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  3. Status of standard model predictions and uncertainties for electroweak observables

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kniehl, B.A.

    1993-11-01

    Recent progress in theoretical predictions of electroweak parameters beyond one loop in the standard model is reviewed. The topics include universal corrections of O(G F 2 M H 2 M W 2 ), O(G F 2 m t 4 ), O(α s G F M W 2 ), and those due to virtual t anti t threshold effects, as well as specific corrections to Γ(Z → b anti b) of O(G F 2 m t 4 ), O(α s G F m t 2 ), and O(α s 2 m b 2 /M Z 2 ). An update of the hadronic contributions to Δα is presented. Theoretical uncertainties, other than those due to the lack of knowledge of M H and m t , are estimated. (orig.)

  4. A Theoretical Design for Learning Model Addressing the Networked Society

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Janni; Levinsen, Karin Tweddell; Sørensen, Birgitte Holm

    2010-01-01

    The transition from the industrial to the networked society produces contradictions that challenges the educational system and force it to adapt to new conditions. In a Danish virtual Master in Information and Communication Technologies and Learning (MIL) these contradictions appear as a field....... The context for the experiment is MIL's course on Interaction Design. The orchestration is operationalized as a 4-hour script that builds on classic role-play designed as an open ended explorative task. The script of the teams' tasks is designed to facilitate the teams' ongoing negotiation and structuring...... which enables students to develop Networked Society competencies and maintain progression in the learning process also during the online periods. Additionally we suggest that our model contributes to the innovation of a networked society's design for learning....

  5. Theoretical model of fast electron emission from surfaces

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Reinhold, C.; Burgdoerfer, J. [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States)]|[Oak Ridge National Laboratory, TN (United States)

    1993-05-01

    Electron emission in glancing-angle ion-surface collisions has become a focus of ion-surface interactions. Electron spectra can provide detailed information on the above surface neutralization dynamics of multiply charged ions, the electronic structure of the surface (surface density of states), and the long-ranged image interactions near the surface. Recent experiments have found that the convoy peak, well known from ion-atom and ion-solid collisions, is dramatically altered. The peak is broadened and shifted in energy which has been attributed to dynamical image interactions. We present a microscopic model for the emission of fast electrons in glancing-angle surface collisions. A classical trajectory Monte Carlo approach is utilized to calculate the evolution of electrons in the presence of their self image, the projectile Coulomb field and the image potential induced by the projectile. The excitation of collective surface modes is also incorporated.

  6. Hidden Semi-Markov Models for Predictive Maintenance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francesco Cartella

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Realistic predictive maintenance approaches are essential for condition monitoring and predictive maintenance of industrial machines. In this work, we propose Hidden Semi-Markov Models (HSMMs with (i no constraints on the state duration density function and (ii being applied to continuous or discrete observation. To deal with such a type of HSMM, we also propose modifications to the learning, inference, and prediction algorithms. Finally, automatic model selection has been made possible using the Akaike Information Criterion. This paper describes the theoretical formalization of the model as well as several experiments performed on simulated and real data with the aim of methodology validation. In all performed experiments, the model is able to correctly estimate the current state and to effectively predict the time to a predefined event with a low overall average absolute error. As a consequence, its applicability to real world settings can be beneficial, especially where in real time the Remaining Useful Lifetime (RUL of the machine is calculated.

  7. Predicting Protein Secondary Structure with Markov Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fischer, Paul; Larsen, Simon; Thomsen, Claus

    2004-01-01

    we are considering here, is to predict the secondary structure from the primary one. To this end we train a Markov model on training data and then use it to classify parts of unknown protein sequences as sheets, helices or coils. We show how to exploit the directional information contained...... in the Markov model for this task. Classifications that are purely based on statistical models might not always be biologically meaningful. We present combinatorial methods to incorporate biological background knowledge to enhance the prediction performance....

  8. Predicting excitonic gaps of semiconducting single-walled carbon nanotubes from a field theoretic analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Konik, Robert M.; Sfeir, Matthew Y.; Misewich, James A.

    2015-02-01

    We demonstrate that a nonperturbative framework for the treatment of the excitations of single-walled carbon nanotubes based upon a field theoretic reduction is able to accurately describe experiment observations of the absolute values of excitonic energies. This theoretical framework yields a simple scaling function from which the excitonic energies can be read off. This scaling function is primarily determined by a single parameter, the charge Luttinger parameter of the tube, which is in turn a function of the tube chirality, dielectric environment, and the tube's dimensions, thus expressing disparate influences on the excitonic energies in a unified fashion. We test this theory explicitly on the data reported by Dukovic et al. [Nano Lett. 5, 2314 (2005), 10.1021/nl0518122] and Sfeir et al. [Phys. Rev. B 82, 195424 (2010), 10.1103/PhysRevB.82.195424] and so demonstrate the method works over a wide range of reported excitonic spectra.

  9. Energy based prediction models for building acoustics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brunskog, Jonas

    2012-01-01

    In order to reach robust and simplified yet accurate prediction models, energy based principle are commonly used in many fields of acoustics, especially in building acoustics. This includes simple energy flow models, the framework of statistical energy analysis (SEA) as well as more elaborated...... principles as, e.g., wave intensity analysis (WIA). The European standards for building acoustic predictions, the EN 12354 series, are based on energy flow and SEA principles. In the present paper, different energy based prediction models are discussed and critically reviewed. Special attention is placed...... on underlying basic assumptions, such as diffuse fields, high modal overlap, resonant field being dominant, etc., and the consequences of these in terms of limitations in the theory and in the practical use of the models....

  10. Comparative Study of Bancruptcy Prediction Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isye Arieshanti

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Early indication of bancruptcy is important for a company. If companies aware of  potency of their bancruptcy, they can take a preventive action to anticipate the bancruptcy. In order to detect the potency of a bancruptcy, a company can utilize a a model of bancruptcy prediction. The prediction model can be built using a machine learning methods. However, the choice of machine learning methods should be performed carefully. Because the suitability of a model depends on the problem specifically. Therefore, in this paper we perform a comparative study of several machine leaning methods for bancruptcy prediction. According to the comparative study, the performance of several models that based on machine learning methods (k-NN, fuzzy k-NN, SVM, Bagging Nearest Neighbour SVM, Multilayer Perceptron(MLP, Hybrid of MLP + Multiple Linear Regression, it can be showed that fuzzy k-NN method achieve the best performance with accuracy 77.5%

  11. Theoretical Predictions of the thermodynamic Properties of Solid Sorbents Capture CO2 Applications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Duan, Yuhua; Sorescu, Dan; Luebke David; Pennline, Henry

    2012-05-02

    We are establishing a theoretical procedure to identify most potential candidates of CO{sub 2} solid sorbents from a large solid material databank to meet the DOE programmatic goal for energy conversion; and to explore the optimal working conditions for the promising CO{sub 2} solid sorbents, especially from room to warm T ranges with optimal energy usage, used for both pre- and post-combustion capture technologies.

  12. Prediction Models for Dynamic Demand Response

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aman, Saima; Frincu, Marc; Chelmis, Charalampos; Noor, Muhammad; Simmhan, Yogesh; Prasanna, Viktor K.

    2015-11-02

    As Smart Grids move closer to dynamic curtailment programs, Demand Response (DR) events will become necessary not only on fixed time intervals and weekdays predetermined by static policies, but also during changing decision periods and weekends to react to real-time demand signals. Unique challenges arise in this context vis-a-vis demand prediction and curtailment estimation and the transformation of such tasks into an automated, efficient dynamic demand response (D2R) process. While existing work has concentrated on increasing the accuracy of prediction models for DR, there is a lack of studies for prediction models for D2R, which we address in this paper. Our first contribution is the formal definition of D2R, and the description of its challenges and requirements. Our second contribution is a feasibility analysis of very-short-term prediction of electricity consumption for D2R over a diverse, large-scale dataset that includes both small residential customers and large buildings. Our third, and major contribution is a set of insights into the predictability of electricity consumption in the context of D2R. Specifically, we focus on prediction models that can operate at a very small data granularity (here 15-min intervals), for both weekdays and weekends - all conditions that characterize scenarios for D2R. We find that short-term time series and simple averaging models used by Independent Service Operators and utilities achieve superior prediction accuracy. We also observe that workdays are more predictable than weekends and holiday. Also, smaller customers have large variation in consumption and are less predictable than larger buildings. Key implications of our findings are that better models are required for small customers and for non-workdays, both of which are critical for D2R. Also, prediction models require just few days’ worth of data indicating that small amounts of

  13. VALIDATION OF THEORETICAL MODEL FOR DECISION MAKING ABOUT E-LEARNING IMPLEMENTATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nina Begičević

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available In the paper the possibility to use mathematical models and statistical techniques in strategic planning and decision making about e-learning is presented. Strategic planning and decision making has been covered as consisting of four phases: (1 intelligence, (2 design, (3 choice and (4 implementation. Each of the phases will be described in this paper, but the accent will be put on the statistical evaluation of the results of the questionnaire which was based on the developed theoretical model for decision making about e-learning implementation in the higher education sector. In general, the main objectives of this paper are: (1 validation of the first theoretical model for decision making about e-learning implementation in the higher education sector, by means of factor analysis and (2 reduction of a large number of variables to a smaller number of factors, i.e. designing the improved theoretical model, for modelling purposes (developing AHP & ANP models.

  14. Description of group-theoretical model of developed turbulence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saveliev, V L; Gorokhovski, M A

    2008-01-01

    We propose to associate the phenomenon of stationary turbulence with the special self-similar solutions of the Euler equations. These solutions represent the linear superposition of eigenfields of spatial symmetry subgroup generators and imply their dependence on time through the parameter of the symmetry transformation only. From this model, it follows that for developed turbulent process, changing the scale of averaging (filtering) of the velocity field is equivalent to composition of scaling, translation and rotation transformations. We call this property a renormalization-group invariance of filtered turbulent fields. The renormalization group invariance provides an opportunity to transform the averaged Navier-Stokes equation over a small scale (inner threshold of the turbulence) to larger scales by simple scaling. From the methodological point of view, it is significant to note that the turbulent viscosity term appeared not as a result of averaging of the nonlinear term in the Navier-Stokes equation, but from the molecular viscosity term with the help of renormalization group transformation.

  15. Description of group-theoretical model of developed turbulence

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Saveliev, V L [Institute of Ionosphere, Almaty 050020 (Kazakhstan); Gorokhovski, M A [Laboratoire de Mecanique des Fluides et Acoustique, Ecole Centrale de Lyon, 36, Avenue Guy de Collongues, F69134 Ecully-Cedex (France)], E-mail: saveliev@topmail.kz, E-mail: mikhael.gorokhovski@ec-lyon.fr

    2008-12-15

    We propose to associate the phenomenon of stationary turbulence with the special self-similar solutions of the Euler equations. These solutions represent the linear superposition of eigenfields of spatial symmetry subgroup generators and imply their dependence on time through the parameter of the symmetry transformation only. From this model, it follows that for developed turbulent process, changing the scale of averaging (filtering) of the velocity field is equivalent to composition of scaling, translation and rotation transformations. We call this property a renormalization-group invariance of filtered turbulent fields. The renormalization group invariance provides an opportunity to transform the averaged Navier-Stokes equation over a small scale (inner threshold of the turbulence) to larger scales by simple scaling. From the methodological point of view, it is significant to note that the turbulent viscosity term appeared not as a result of averaging of the nonlinear term in the Navier-Stokes equation, but from the molecular viscosity term with the help of renormalization group transformation.

  16. Mathematical modelling methodologies in predictive food microbiology: a SWOT analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferrer, Jordi; Prats, Clara; López, Daniel; Vives-Rego, Josep

    2009-08-31

    Predictive microbiology is the area of food microbiology that attempts to forecast the quantitative evolution of microbial populations over time. This is achieved to a great extent through models that include the mechanisms governing population dynamics. Traditionally, the models used in predictive microbiology are whole-system continuous models that describe population dynamics by means of equations applied to extensive or averaged variables of the whole system. Many existing models can be classified by specific criteria. We can distinguish between survival and growth models by seeing whether they tackle mortality or cell duplication. We can distinguish between empirical (phenomenological) models, which mathematically describe specific behaviour, and theoretical (mechanistic) models with a biological basis, which search for the underlying mechanisms driving already observed phenomena. We can also distinguish between primary, secondary and tertiary models, by examining their treatment of the effects of external factors and constraints on the microbial community. Recently, the use of spatially explicit Individual-based Models (IbMs) has spread through predictive microbiology, due to the current technological capacity of performing measurements on single individual cells and thanks to the consolidation of computational modelling. Spatially explicit IbMs are bottom-up approaches to microbial communities that build bridges between the description of micro-organisms at the cell level and macroscopic observations at the population level. They provide greater insight into the mesoscale phenomena that link unicellular and population levels. Every model is built in response to a particular question and with different aims. Even so, in this research we conducted a SWOT (Strength, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats) analysis of the different approaches (population continuous modelling and Individual-based Modelling), which we hope will be helpful for current and future

  17. A Theoretically Based Model of Rat Personality with Implications for Welfare

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franks, Becca; Higgins, E. Tory; Champagne, Frances A.

    2014-01-01

    As animal personality research becomes more central to the study of animal behavior, there is increasing need for theoretical frameworks addressing its causes and consequences. We propose that regulatory focus theory (RFT) could serve as one such framework while also providing insights into how animal personality relates to welfare. RFT distinguishes between two types of approach motivation: promotion, the motivation to approach gains, and prevention, the motivation to approach or maintain safety. Decades of research have established the utility of RFT as a model of human behavior and recent evidence from zoo-housed primates and laboratory rats has suggested that it may be applicable to nonhuman animal behavior as well. Building on these initial studies, we collected data on 60 rats, Rattus norvegicus, navigating an automated maze that allowed individuals to maintain darkness (indicative of prevention/safety-approach motivation) and/or activate food rewards (indicative of promotion/gain-approach motivation). As predicted, both behaviors showed stable individual differences (Ps motivation may be enhanced. These results point toward the potential utility of RFT as a model for animal behavior and welfare. PMID:24755737

  18. Strength Deterioration of Concrete in Sulfate Environment: An Experimental Study and Theoretical Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yingwu Zhou

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Sulfate corrosion is one of the most important factors responsible for the performance degradation of concrete materials. In this paper, an accelerated corrosion by a sulfate solution in a dry-wet cycle was introduced to simulate the external sulfate corrosion environment. The deterioration trend of concrete strength and development law of sulfate-induced concrete corrosion depth under sulfate attacks were experimentally studied. The damaged concrete section is simply but reasonably divided into uncorroded and corroded layers and the two layers can be demarcated by the sulfate corrosion depth of concrete. The accelerated corrosion test results indicated that the strength degradation of concrete by sulfate attack had a significant relation with the corrosion depth. Consequently, this paper aims to reveal such relation and thus model the strength degradation law. A large amount of experimental data has finally verified the validity and applicability of the models, and a theoretical basis is thus provided for the strength degradation prediction and the residual life assessment of in-service concrete structures under sulfate attacks.

  19. A theoretically based model of rat personality with implications for welfare.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Becca Franks

    Full Text Available As animal personality research becomes more central to the study of animal behavior, there is increasing need for theoretical frameworks addressing its causes and consequences. We propose that regulatory focus theory (RFT could serve as one such framework while also providing insights into how animal personality relates to welfare. RFT distinguishes between two types of approach motivation: promotion, the motivation to approach gains, and prevention, the motivation to approach or maintain safety. Decades of research have established the utility of RFT as a model of human behavior and recent evidence from zoo-housed primates and laboratory rats has suggested that it may be applicable to nonhuman animal behavior as well. Building on these initial studies, we collected data on 60 rats, Rattus norvegicus, navigating an automated maze that allowed individuals to maintain darkness (indicative of prevention/safety-approach motivation and/or activate food rewards (indicative of promotion/gain-approach motivation. As predicted, both behaviors showed stable individual differences (Ps <0.01 and were inversely associated with physiological signs of chronic stress, possibly indicating poor welfare (Ps <0.05. Subsequently, half the rats were exposed to a manageable threat (noxious novel object in the homecage. Re-testing in the maze revealed that threat exposure increased darkness time achieved (P<0.05, suggesting a mechanism by which prevention motivation may be enhanced. These results point toward the potential utility of RFT as a model for animal behavior and welfare.

  20. Are animal models predictive for humans?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Greek Ray

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract It is one of the central aims of the philosophy of science to elucidate the meanings of scientific terms and also to think critically about their application. The focus of this essay is the scientific term predict and whether there is credible evidence that animal models, especially in toxicology and pathophysiology, can be used to predict human outcomes. Whether animals can be used to predict human response to drugs and other chemicals is apparently a contentious issue. However, when one empirically analyzes animal models using scientific tools they fall far short of being able to predict human responses. This is not surprising considering what we have learned from fields such evolutionary and developmental biology, gene regulation and expression, epigenetics, complexity theory, and comparative genomics.

  1. Theoretical models for fluid thermodynamics based on the quasi-Gaussian entropy theory

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Amadei, Andrea

    1998-01-01

    Summary The theoretical modeling of fluid thermodynamics is one of the most challenging fields in physical chemistry. In fact the fluid behavior, except at very low density conditions, is still extremely difficult to be modeled from a statistical mechanical point of view, as for any realistic model

  2. THEORETICAL FLOW MODEL THROUGH A CENTRIFUGAL PUMP USED FOR WATER SUPPLY IN AGRICULTURE IRRIGATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SCHEAUA Fanel Dorel

    2017-05-01

    motion of the rotor. A theoretical model for calculating the flow of the working fluid through the interior of a centrifugal pump model is presented in this paper as well as the numerical analysis on the virtual model performed with the ANSYS CFX software in order to highlight the flow parameters and flow path-lines that are formed during centrifugal pump operation.

  3. A game theoretic model of the Northwestern European electricity market-market power and the environment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lise, W.; Linderhof, V.G.M.; Kuik, O.; Kemfert, C.; Ostling, R.; Heinzow, T.

    2006-01-01

    This paper develops a static computational game theoretic model. Illustrative results for the liberalising European electricity market are given to demonstrate the type of economic and environmental results that can be generated with the model. The model is empirically calibrated to eight

  4. Evaluation of CASP8 model quality predictions

    KAUST Repository

    Cozzetto, Domenico

    2009-01-01

    The model quality assessment problem consists in the a priori estimation of the overall and per-residue accuracy of protein structure predictions. Over the past years, a number of methods have been developed to address this issue and CASP established a prediction category to evaluate their performance in 2006. In 2008 the experiment was repeated and its results are reported here. Participants were invited to infer the correctness of the protein models submitted by the registered automatic servers. Estimates could apply to both whole models and individual amino acids. Groups involved in the tertiary structure prediction categories were also asked to assign local error estimates to each predicted residue in their own models and their results are also discussed here. The correlation between the predicted and observed correctness measures was the basis of the assessment of the results. We observe that consensus-based methods still perform significantly better than those accepting single models, similarly to what was concluded in the previous edition of the experiment. © 2009 WILEY-LISS, INC.

  5. Reliable NonLinear Model-Predictive Control via Validated Simulation

    OpenAIRE

    Alexandre dit Sandretto, Julien

    2017-01-01

    Model-Predictive Control (MPC) is one of the most advanced control technique nowadays. Indeed,MPC approaches are well known for their robustness and stability properties. Nevertheless, NonlinearModel-Predictive Control (NMPC), the extension of MPC in the nonlinear world, still poses challenging theoretical, computationaland implementation issues. By the help of validated simulation, which can handle nonlinear models, a new algorithmfor a robust by-construction control strategy based on NMPC i...

  6. Modeling Exoplanetary Atmospheres using BART, TEA, and Drift-RHD; Theoretical studies and Observational Implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dobbs-Dixon, Ian

    numerous published papers, further work is needed to couple them self-consistently. Our theoretical studies focus on a number of objectives. We will start by incorporating our kinetic, non-equilibrium cloud model within BART, allowing us to obtain a consistent solution for cloud characteristics. We will further test simple parameterizations against the full solution to explore the reliability of simpler models. Utilizing Drift-RHD, we will explore the role of horizontal advection on cloud distribution, investigate the validity of 1D retrievals by comparing them to selfconsistently generated 3D models, and develop a retrieval framework for wavelengthdependent phase-curves. TEA will be enhanced with additional databases and the inclusion of condensates, providing realistic initial cloudy-model for retrievals. To explore the importance of equilibrium chemistry and exclude non-plausible chemical compositions (often the outcome of many retrieval approaches) we will relax the assumption of non-equilibrium chemistry by utilizing an analytical chemical equilibrium approach in BART. To address observations, our OBS suit for generating synthetic observations will be adapted to interface with our models, allowing us to both compare to existing observations and make predictions for future observations. With these tools, we are particularly well suited to understand discriminants between classes of models and identifying which particular set of observations could most readily distinguish cloud constituents and temperature features. The proposed research is directly relevant to the Planetary Science and Astrophysics goals through furthering our understanding of compositions, dynamics, energetics, and chemical behaviors of exoplanetary atmospheres. In addition, to maximize NASA's investment and encourage open access, we have and will continue to make all of our codes public and available to the community throughout the course of the research.

  7. Stress fluctuations in fracture networks from theoretical and numerical models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davy, P.; Darcel, C.; Mas Ivars, D.; Le Goc, R.

    2017-12-01

    We analyze the spatial fluctuations of stress in a simple tridimensional model constituted by a population of disc-shaped fractures embedded in an elastic matrix with uniform and isotropic properties. The fluctuations arise from the classical stress enhancement at fracture tips and stress shadowing around fracture centers that are amplified or decreased by the interactions between close-by fractures. The distribution of local stresses is calculated at the elementary mesh scale with the 3DEC numerical program based on the distinct element method. As expected, the stress distributions vary with fracture density, the larger is the density, the wider is the distribution. For freely slipping fractures, it is mainly controlled by the percolation parameter p (i.e., the total volume of spheres surrounding fractures). For stresses smaller than the remote deviatoric stress, the distribution depends only on for the range of density that has been studied. For large stresses, the distribution decreases exponentially when increasing stress, with a characteristic stress that increases with entailing a widening of the stress distribution. We extend the analysis to fractures with plane resistance defined by an elastic shear stiffness ks and a slip Coulomb threshold. A consequence of the fracture plane resistance is to lower the stress perturbation in the surrounding matrix by a factor that depends on the ratio between ks and a fracture-matrix stiffness km mainly dependent on the ratio between Young modulus and fracture size. km is also the ratio between the remote shear stress and the displacement across the fracture plane in the case of freely slipping fractures. A complete analytical derivation of the expressions of the stress perturbations and of the fracture displacements is obtained and checked with numerical simulations. In the limit ks >> km, the stress perturbation tends to 0 and the stress state is spatially uniform. The analysis allows us to quantify the intensity of the

  8. Model predictive controller design of hydrocracker reactors

    OpenAIRE

    GÖKÇE, Dila

    2014-01-01

    This study summarizes the design of a Model Predictive Controller (MPC) in Tüpraş, İzmit Refinery Hydrocracker Unit Reactors. Hydrocracking process, in which heavy vacuum gasoil is converted into lighter and valuable products at high temperature and pressure is described briefly. Controller design description, identification and modeling studies are examined and the model variables are presented. WABT (Weighted Average Bed Temperature) equalization and conversion increase are simulate...

  9. Logistic regression modelling: procedures and pitfalls in developing and interpreting prediction models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nataša Šarlija

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This study sheds light on the most common issues related to applying logistic regression in prediction models for company growth. The purpose of the paper is 1 to provide a detailed demonstration of the steps in developing a growth prediction model based on logistic regression analysis, 2 to discuss common pitfalls and methodological errors in developing a model, and 3 to provide solutions and possible ways of overcoming these issues. Special attention is devoted to the question of satisfying logistic regression assumptions, selecting and defining dependent and independent variables, using classification tables and ROC curves, for reporting model strength, interpreting odds ratios as effect measures and evaluating performance of the prediction model. Development of a logistic regression model in this paper focuses on a prediction model of company growth. The analysis is based on predominantly financial data from a sample of 1471 small and medium-sized Croatian companies active between 2009 and 2014. The financial data is presented in the form of financial ratios divided into nine main groups depicting following areas of business: liquidity, leverage, activity, profitability, research and development, investing and export. The growth prediction model indicates aspects of a business critical for achieving high growth. In that respect, the contribution of this paper is twofold. First, methodological, in terms of pointing out pitfalls and potential solutions in logistic regression modelling, and secondly, theoretical, in terms of identifying factors responsible for high growth of small and medium-sized companies.

  10. Development and experimental evaluation of theoretical models for ion cyclotron resonance frequency heating of tokamak plasmas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mantsinen, M. [Helsinki Univ. of Technology, Espoo (Finland). Dept. of Technical Physics

    1999-06-01

    Heating with electromagnetic waves in the ion cyclotron range of frequencies (ICRF) is a well-established method for auxiliary heating of present-day tokamak plasmas and is envisaged as one of the main heating techniques for the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) and future reactor plasmas. In order to predict the performance of ICRF heating in future machines, it is important to benchmark present theoretical modelling with experimental results on present tokamaks. This thesis reports on development and experimental evaluation of theoretical models for ICRF heating at the Joint European Torus (JET). Several ICRF physics effects and scenarios have been studied. Direct importance to the ITER is the theoretical analysis of ICRF heating experiments with deuterium-tritium (D-T) plasmas. These experiments clearly demonstrate the potential of ICRF heating for auxiliary heating of reactor plasmas. In particular, scenarios with potential for good bulk ion heating and enhanced D-T fusion reactivity have been identified. Good bulk ion heating is essential for reactor plasmas in order to obtain a high ion temperature and a high fusion reactivity. In JET good bulk ion heating with ICRF waves has been achieved in high-performance discharges by adding ICRF heating to neutral beam injection. In these experiments, as in other JET discharges where damping at higher harmonics of the ion cyclotron frequency takes place, so-called finite Larmor radius (FLR) effects play an important role. Due to FLR effects, the resonating ion velocity distribution function can have a strong influence on the power deposition. Evidence for this effect has been obtained from the third harmonic deuterium heating experiments. Because of FLR effects, the wave-particle interaction can also become weak at certain ion energies, which prevents resonating ions from reaching higher energies. When interacting with the wave, an ion receives not only a change in energy but also a change in

  11. Buoyancy-Induced Heat Transfer inside Compressor Rotors: Overview of Theoretical Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Michael Owen

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Increasing pressures in gas-turbine compressors, particularly in aeroengines where the pressure ratios can be above 50:1, require smaller compressor blades and an increasing focus on blade-clearance control. The blade clearance depends on the radial growth of the compressor discs, which in turn depends on the temperature and stress in the discs. As the flow inside the disc cavities is buoyancy-driven, calculation of the disc temperature is a conjugate problem: the heat transfer from the disc is coupled with the air temperature inside the cavity. The flow inside the cavity is three-dimensional, unsteady and unstable, so computational fluid dynamics is not only expensive and time-consuming, it is also unable to achieve accurate solutions at the high Grashof numbers found in modern compressors. Many designers rely on empirical equations based on inappropriate physical models, and recently the authors have produced a series of papers on physically-based theoretical modelling of buoyancy-induced heat transfer in the rotating cavities found inside compressor rotors. Predictions from these models, all of which are for laminar flow, have been validated using measurements made in open and closed compressor rigs for a range of flow parameters representative of those found inside compressor rotors. (The fact that laminar buoyancy models can be used for large Grashof numbers (up to 10 12 , where most engineers expect the flow to be turbulent, is attributed to the large Coriolis accelerations in the fluid core and to the fact that there is only a small difference between the rotational speed of the core and that of the discs. As many as 223 separate tests were analysed in the validation of the models, and good agreement between the predictions and measurements was achieved for most of these cases. This overview paper has collected together the equations from these papers, which should be helpful to designers and research workers. The paper also points out

  12. A Theoretical Approach to Predict the Fatigue Life of Flexible Pipes

    OpenAIRE

    de Sousa, José Renato M.; de Sousa, Fernando J. M.; de Siqueira, Marcos Q.; Sagrilo, Luís V. S.; de Lemos, Carlos Alberto D.

    2012-01-01

    This paper focuses on a theoretical approach to access the fatigue life of flexible pipes. This methodology employs functions that convert forces and moments obtained in time-domain global analyses into stresses in their tensile armors. The stresses are then processed by well-known cycle counting methods, and S-N curves are used to evaluate the fatigue damage at several points in the pipe’s cross-section. Finally, Palmgren-Miner linear damage hypothesis is assumed in order to calculate the ac...

  13. Multi-Model Ensemble Wake Vortex Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koerner, Stephan; Holzaepfel, Frank; Ahmad, Nash'at N.

    2015-01-01

    Several multi-model ensemble methods are investigated for predicting wake vortex transport and decay. This study is a joint effort between National Aeronautics and Space Administration and Deutsches Zentrum fuer Luft- und Raumfahrt to develop a multi-model ensemble capability using their wake models. An overview of different multi-model ensemble methods and their feasibility for wake applications is presented. The methods include Reliability Ensemble Averaging, Bayesian Model Averaging, and Monte Carlo Simulations. The methodologies are evaluated using data from wake vortex field experiments.

  14. Thermodynamic modeling of activity coefficient and prediction of solubility: Part 1. Predictive models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mirmehrabi, Mahmoud; Rohani, Sohrab; Perry, Luisa

    2006-04-01

    A new activity coefficient model was developed from excess Gibbs free energy in the form G(ex) = cA(a) x(1)(b)...x(n)(b). The constants of the proposed model were considered to be function of solute and solvent dielectric constants, Hildebrand solubility parameters and specific volumes of solute and solvent molecules. The proposed model obeys the Gibbs-Duhem condition for activity coefficient models. To generalize the model and make it as a purely predictive model without any adjustable parameters, its constants were found using the experimental activity coefficient and physical properties of 20 vapor-liquid systems. The predictive capability of the proposed model was tested by calculating the activity coefficients of 41 binary vapor-liquid equilibrium systems and showed good agreement with the experimental data in comparison with two other predictive models, the UNIFAC and Hildebrand models. The only data used for the prediction of activity coefficients, were dielectric constants, Hildebrand solubility parameters, and specific volumes of the solute and solvent molecules. Furthermore, the proposed model was used to predict the activity coefficient of an organic compound, stearic acid, whose physical properties were available in methanol and 2-butanone. The predicted activity coefficient along with the thermal properties of the stearic acid were used to calculate the solubility of stearic acid in these two solvents and resulted in a better agreement with the experimental data compared to the UNIFAC and Hildebrand predictive models.

  15. PREDICTIVE CAPACITY OF ARCH FAMILY MODELS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raphael Silveira Amaro

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available In the last decades, a remarkable number of models, variants from the Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic family, have been developed and empirically tested, making extremely complex the process of choosing a particular model. This research aim to compare the predictive capacity, using the Model Confidence Set procedure, than five conditional heteroskedasticity models, considering eight different statistical probability distributions. The financial series which were used refers to the log-return series of the Bovespa index and the Dow Jones Industrial Index in the period between 27 October 2008 and 30 December 2014. The empirical evidences showed that, in general, competing models have a great homogeneity to make predictions, either for a stock market of a developed country or for a stock market of a developing country. An equivalent result can be inferred for the statistical probability distributions that were used.

  16. A revised prediction model for natural conception.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bensdorp, Alexandra J; van der Steeg, Jan Willem; Steures, Pieternel; Habbema, J Dik F; Hompes, Peter G A; Bossuyt, Patrick M M; van der Veen, Fulco; Mol, Ben W J; Eijkemans, Marinus J C

    2017-06-01

    One of the aims in reproductive medicine is to differentiate between couples that have favourable chances of conceiving naturally and those that do not. Since the development of the prediction model of Hunault, characteristics of the subfertile population have changed. The objective of this analysis was to assess whether additional predictors can refine the Hunault model and extend its applicability. Consecutive subfertile couples with unexplained and mild male subfertility presenting in fertility clinics were asked to participate in a prospective cohort study. We constructed a multivariable prediction model with the predictors from the Hunault model and new potential predictors. The primary outcome, natural conception leading to an ongoing pregnancy, was observed in 1053 women of the 5184 included couples (20%). All predictors of the Hunault model were selected into the revised model plus an additional seven (woman's body mass index, cycle length, basal FSH levels, tubal status,history of previous pregnancies in the current relationship (ongoing pregnancies after natural conception, fertility treatment or miscarriages), semen volume, and semen morphology. Predictions from the revised model seem to concur better with observed pregnancy rates compared with the Hunault model; c-statistic of 0.71 (95% CI 0.69 to 0.73) compared with 0.59 (95% CI 0.57 to 0.61). Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  17. [Hyperspectrum based prediction model for nitrogen content of apple flowers].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Xi-Cun; Zhao, Geng-Xing; Wang, Ling; Dong, Fang; Lei, Tong; Zhan, Bing

    2010-02-01

    The present paper aims to quantitatively retrieve nitrogen content in apple flowers, so as to provide an important basis for apple informationization management. By using ASD FieldSpec 3 field spectrometer, hyperspectral reflectivity of 120 apple flower samples in full-bloom stage was measured and their nitrogen contents were analyzed. Based on the apple flower original spectrum and first derivative spectral characteristics, correlation analysis was carried out between apple flowers original spectrum and first derivative spectrum reflectivity and nitrogen contents, so as to determine the sensitive bands. Based on characteristic spectral parameters, prediction models were built, optimized and tested. The results indicated that the nitrogen content of apple was very significantly negatively correlated with the original spectral reflectance in the 374-696, 1 340-1 890 and 2 052-2 433 nm, while in 736-913 nm they were very significantly positively correlated; the first derivative spectrum in 637-675 nm was very significantly negatively correlated, and in 676-746 nm was very significantly positively correlated. All the six spectral parameters established were significantly correlated with the nitrogen content of apple flowers. Through further comparison and selection, the prediction models built with original spectral reflectance of 640 and 676 nm were determined as the best for nitrogen content prediction of apple flowers. The test results showed that the coefficients of determination (R2) of the two models were 0.825 8 and 0.893 6, the total root mean square errors (RMSE) were 0.732 and 0.638 6, and the slopes were 0.836 1 and 1.019 2 respectively. Therefore the models produced desired results for nitrogen content prediction of apple flowers with average prediction accuracy of 92.9% and 94.0%. This study will provide theoretical basis and technical support for rapid apple flower nitrogen content prediction and nutrition diagnosis.

  18. Comparison of pause predictions of two sequence-dependent transcription models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bai, Lu; Wang, Michelle D

    2010-01-01

    Two recent theoretical models, Bai et al (2004, 2007) and Tadigotla et al (2006), formulated thermodynamic explanations of sequence-dependent transcription pausing by RNA polymerase (RNAP). The two models differ in some basic assumptions and therefore make different yet overlapping predictions for pause locations, and different predictions on pause kinetics and mechanisms. Here we present a comprehensive comparison of the two models. We show that while they have comparable predictive power of pause locations at low NTP concentrations, the Bai et al model is more accurate than Tadigotla et al at higher NTP concentrations. The pausing kinetics predicted by Bai et al is also consistent with time-course transcription reactions, while Tadigotla et al is unsuited for this type of kinetic prediction. More importantly, the two models in general predict different pausing mechanisms even for the same pausing sites, and the Bai et al model provides an explanation more consistent with recent single molecule observations

  19. A theoretical model of a wake of a body towed in a stratified fluid at large Reynolds and Froude numbers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. I. Troitskaya

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The objective of the present paper is to develop a theoretical model describing the evolution of a turbulent wake behind a towed sphere in a stably stratified fluid at large Froude and Reynolds numbers. The wake flow is considered as a quasi two-dimensional (2-D turbulent jet flow whose dynamics is governed by the momentum transfer from the mean flow to a quasi-2-D sinuous mode growing due to hydrodynamic instability. The model employs a quasi-linear approximation to describe this momentum transfer. The model scaling coefficients are defined with the use of available experimental data, and the performance of the model is verified by comparison with the results of a direct numerical simulation of a 2-D turbulent jet flow. The model prediction for the temporal development of the wake axis mean velocity is found to be in good agreement with the experimental data obtained by Spedding (1997.

  20. Regional differences of outpatient physician supply as a theoretical economic and empirical generalized linear model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scholz, Stefan; Graf von der Schulenburg, Johann-Matthias; Greiner, Wolfgang

    2015-11-17

    Regional differences in physician supply can be found in many health care systems, regardless of their organizational and financial structure. A theoretical model is developed for the physicians' decision on office allocation, covering demand-side factors and a consumption time function. To test the propositions following the theoretical model, generalized linear models were estimated to explain differences in 412 German districts. Various factors found in the literature were included to control for physicians' regional preferences. Evidence in favor of the first three propositions of the theoretical model could be found. Specialists show a stronger association to higher populated districts than GPs. Although indicators for regional preferences are significantly correlated with physician density, their coefficients are not as high as population density. If regional disparities should be addressed by political actions, the focus should be to counteract those parameters representing physicians' preferences in over- and undersupplied regions.

  1. Modelling the predictive performance of credit scoring

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shi-Wei Shen

    2013-07-01

    Research purpose: The purpose of this empirical paper was to examine the predictive performance of credit scoring systems in Taiwan. Motivation for the study: Corporate lending remains a major business line for financial institutions. However, in light of the recent global financial crises, it has become extremely important for financial institutions to implement rigorous means of assessing clients seeking access to credit facilities. Research design, approach and method: Using a data sample of 10 349 observations drawn between 1992 and 2010, logistic regression models were utilised to examine the predictive performance of credit scoring systems. Main findings: A test of Goodness of fit demonstrated that credit scoring models that incorporated the Taiwan Corporate Credit Risk Index (TCRI, micro- and also macroeconomic variables possessed greater predictive power. This suggests that macroeconomic variables do have explanatory power for default credit risk. Practical/managerial implications: The originality in the study was that three models were developed to predict corporate firms’ defaults based on different microeconomic and macroeconomic factors such as the TCRI, asset growth rates, stock index and gross domestic product. Contribution/value-add: The study utilises different goodness of fits and receiver operator characteristics during the examination of the robustness of the predictive power of these factors.

  2. Modelling language evolution: Examples and predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gong, Tao; Shuai, Lan; Zhang, Menghan

    2014-06-01

    We survey recent computer modelling research of language evolution, focusing on a rule-based model simulating the lexicon-syntax coevolution and an equation-based model quantifying the language competition dynamics. We discuss four predictions of these models: (a) correlation between domain-general abilities (e.g. sequential learning) and language-specific mechanisms (e.g. word order processing); (b) coevolution of language and relevant competences (e.g. joint attention); (c) effects of cultural transmission and social structure on linguistic understandability; and (d) commonalities between linguistic, biological, and physical phenomena. All these contribute significantly to our understanding of the evolutions of language structures, individual learning mechanisms, and relevant biological and socio-cultural factors. We conclude the survey by highlighting three future directions of modelling studies of language evolution: (a) adopting experimental approaches for model evaluation; (b) consolidating empirical foundations of models; and (c) multi-disciplinary collaboration among modelling, linguistics, and other relevant disciplines.

  3. Theoretical predictions for α -decay chains of 118 290 -298Og isotopes using a finite-range nucleon-nucleon interaction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ismail, M.; Adel, A.

    2018-04-01

    The α -decay half-lives of the recently synthesized superheavy nuclei (SHN) are investigated by employing the density dependent cluster model. A realistic nucleon-nucleon (NN ) interaction with a finite-range exchange part is used to calculate the microscopic α -nucleus potential in the well-established double-folding model. The calculated potential is then implemented to find both the assault frequency and the penetration probability of the α particle by means of the Wentzel-Kramers-Brillouin (WKB) approximation in combination with the Bohr-Sommerfeld quantization condition. The calculated values of α -decay half-lives of the recently synthesized Og isotopes and its decay products are in good agreement with the experimental data. Moreover, the calculated values of α -decay half-lives have been compared with those values evaluated using other theoretical models, and it was found that our theoretical values match well with their counterparts. The competition between α decay and spontaneous fission is investigated and predictions for possible decay modes for the unknown nuclei 118 290 -298Og are presented. We studied the behavior of the α -decay half-lives of Og isotopes and their decay products as a function of the mass number of the parent nuclei. We found that the behavior of the curves is governed by proton and neutron magic numbers found from previous studies. The proton numbers Z =114 , 116, 108, 106 and the neutron numbers N =172 , 164, 162, 158 show some magic character. We hope that the theoretical prediction of α -decay chains provides a new perspective to experimentalists.

  4. Model Predictive Control of Sewer Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Einar B.; Herbertsson, Hannes R.; Niemann, Henrik

    2016-01-01

    The developments in solutions for management of urban drainage are of vital importance, as the amount of sewer water from urban areas continues to increase due to the increase of the world’s population and the change in the climate conditions. How a sewer network is structured, monitored and cont...... benchmark model. Due to the inherent constraints the applied approach is based on Model Predictive Control....... and controlled have thus become essential factors for efficient performance of waste water treatment plants. This paper examines methods for simplified modelling and controlling a sewer network. A practical approach to the problem is used by analysing simplified design model, which is based on the Barcelona...

  5. Bayesian Predictive Models for Rayleigh Wind Speed

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shahirinia, Amir; Hajizadeh, Amin; Yu, David C

    2017-01-01

    predictive model of the wind speed aggregates the non-homogeneous distributions into a single continuous distribution. Therefore, the result is able to capture the variation among the probability distributions of the wind speeds at the turbines’ locations in a wind farm. More specifically, instead of using...... a wind speed distribution whose parameters are known or estimated, the parameters are considered as random whose variations are according to probability distributions. The Bayesian predictive model for a Rayleigh which only has a single model scale parameter has been proposed. Also closed-form posterior......One of the major challenges with the increase in wind power generation is the uncertain nature of wind speed. So far the uncertainty about wind speed has been presented through probability distributions. Also the existing models that consider the uncertainty of the wind speed primarily view...

  6. Comparison of two ordinal prediction models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kattan, Michael W; Gerds, Thomas A

    2015-01-01

    system (i.e. old or new), such as the level of evidence for one or more factors included in the system or the general opinions of expert clinicians. However, given the major objective of estimating prognosis on an ordinal scale, we argue that the rival staging system candidates should be compared...... on their ability to predict outcome. We sought to outline an algorithm that would compare two rival ordinal systems on their predictive ability. RESULTS: We devised an algorithm based largely on the concordance index, which is appropriate for comparing two models in their ability to rank observations. We...... demonstrate our algorithm with a prostate cancer staging system example. CONCLUSION: We have provided an algorithm for selecting the preferred staging system based on prognostic accuracy. It appears to be useful for the purpose of selecting between two ordinal prediction models....

  7. Chromospheric extents predicted by time-dependent acoustic wave models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cuntz, Manfred

    1990-01-01

    Theoretical models for chromospheric structures of late-type giant stars are computed, including the time-dependent propagation of acoustic waves. Models with short-period monochromatic shock waves as well as a spectrum of acoustic waves are discussed, and the method is applied to the stars Arcturus, Aldebaran, and Betelgeuse. Chromospheric extent, defined as the monotonic decrease with height of the time-averaged electron densities, are found to be 1.12, 1.13, and 1.22 stellar radii for the three stars, respectively; this corresponds to a time-averaged electron density of 10 to the 7th/cu cm. Predictions of the extended chromospheric obtained using a simple scaling law agree well with those obtained by the time-dependent wave models; thus, the chromospheres of all stars for which the scaling law is valid consist of the same number of pressure scale heights.

  8. Chromospheric extents predicted by time-dependent acoustic wave models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cuntz, M. (Joint Institute for Laboratory Astrophysics, Boulder, CO (USA) Heidelberg Universitaet (Germany, F.R.))

    1990-01-01

    Theoretical models for chromospheric structures of late-type giant stars are computed, including the time-dependent propagation of acoustic waves. Models with short-period monochromatic shock waves as well as a spectrum of acoustic waves are discussed, and the method is applied to the stars Arcturus, Aldebaran, and Betelgeuse. Chromospheric extent, defined as the monotonic decrease with height of the time-averaged electron densities, are found to be 1.12, 1.13, and 1.22 stellar radii for the three stars, respectively; this corresponds to a time-averaged electron density of 10 to the 7th/cu cm. Predictions of the extended chromospheric obtained using a simple scaling law agree well with those obtained by the time-dependent wave models; thus, the chromospheres of all stars for which the scaling law is valid consist of the same number of pressure scale heights. 74 refs.

  9. Vorticity dipoles and a theoretical model of a finite force at the moving contact line singularity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Peter; Devoria, Adam; Mohseni, Kamran

    2017-11-01

    In the well known works of Moffatt (1964) and Huh & Scriven (1971), an infinite force was reported at the moving contact line (MCL) and attributed to a non-integrable stress along the fluid-solid boundary. In our recent investigation of the boundary driven wedge, a model of the MCL, we find that the classical solution theoretically predicts a finite force at the contact line if the forces applied by the two boundaries that make up the corner are taken into consideration. Mathematically, this force can be obtained by the complex contour integral of the holomorphic vorticity-pressure function given by G = μω + ip . Alternatively, this force can also be found using a carefully defined real integral that incorporates the two boundaries. Motivated by this discovery, we have found that the rate of change in circulation, viscous energy dissipation, and viscous energy flux is also finite per unit contact line length. The analysis presented demonstrates that despite a singular stress and a relatively simple geometry, the no-slip semi-infinite wedge is capable of capturing some physical quantities of interest. Furthermore, this result provides a foundation for other challenging topics such as dynamic contact angle.

  10. Determinant Factors for Arterial Hemodynamics in Hypertension: Theoretical Insights From a Computational Model-Based Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Fuyou; Guan, Debao; Alastruey, Jordi

    2018-03-01

    Hypertension is a well-documented predictive factor for cardiovascular events. Clinical studies have extensively demonstrated the differential hemodynamic consequences of various antihypertensive drugs, but failed to clearly elucidate the underlying mechanisms due to the difficulty in performing a quantitative deterministic analysis based on clinical data that carry confounding information stemming from interpatient differences and the nonlinearity of cardiovascular hemodynamics. In the present study, a multiscale model of the cardiovascular system was developed to quantitatively investigate the relationships between hemodynamic variables and cardiovascular properties under hypertensive conditions, aiming to establish a theoretical basis for assisting in the interpretation of clinical observations or optimization of therapy. Results demonstrated that heart period, central arterial stiffness, and arteriolar radius were the major determinant factors for blood pressures and flow pulsatility indices both in large arteries and in the microcirculation. These factors differed in the degree and the way in which they affect hemodynamic variables due to their differential effects on wave reflections in the vascular system. In particular, it was found that the hemodynamic effects of varying arteriolar radius were considerably influenced by the state of central arterial stiffness, and vice versa, which implied the potential of optimizing antihypertensive treatment by selecting proper drugs based on patient-specific cardiovascular conditions. When analyzed in relation to clinical observations, the simulated results provided mechanistic explanations for the beneficial pressure-lowering effects of vasodilators as compared to β-blockers, and highlighted the significance of monitoring and normalizing arterial stiffness in the treatment of hypertension.

  11. A theoretically based model of rat personality with implications for welfare.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franks, Becca; Higgins, E Tory; Champagne, Frances A

    2014-01-01

    As animal personality research becomes more central to the study of animal behavior, there is increasing need for theoretical frameworks addressing its causes and consequences. We propose that regulatory focus theory (RFT) could serve as one such framework while also providing insights into how animal personality relates to welfare. RFT distinguishes between two types of approach motivation: promotion, the motivation to approach gains, and prevention, the motivation to approach or maintain safety. Decades of research have established the utility of RFT as a model of human behavior and recent evidence from zoo-housed primates and laboratory rats has suggested that it may be applicable to nonhuman animal behavior as well. Building on these initial studies, we collected data on 60 rats, Rattus norvegicus, navigating an automated maze that allowed individuals to maintain darkness (indicative of prevention/safety-approach motivation) and/or activate food rewards (indicative of promotion/gain-approach motivation). As predicted, both behaviors showed stable individual differences (Ps welfare (Ps testing in the maze revealed that threat exposure increased darkness time achieved (Panimal behavior and welfare.

  12. Model Predictive Vibration Control Efficient Constrained MPC Vibration Control for Lightly Damped Mechanical Structures

    CERN Document Server

    Takács, Gergely

    2012-01-01

    Real-time model predictive controller (MPC) implementation in active vibration control (AVC) is often rendered difficult by fast sampling speeds and extensive actuator-deformation asymmetry. If the control of lightly damped mechanical structures is assumed, the region of attraction containing the set of allowable initial conditions requires a large prediction horizon, making the already computationally demanding on-line process even more complex. Model Predictive Vibration Control provides insight into the predictive control of lightly damped vibrating structures by exploring computationally efficient algorithms which are capable of low frequency vibration control with guaranteed stability and constraint feasibility. In addition to a theoretical primer on active vibration damping and model predictive control, Model Predictive Vibration Control provides a guide through the necessary steps in understanding the founding ideas of predictive control applied in AVC such as: ·         the implementation of ...

  13. The Psychosocial Adjustment of the Southeast Asian Refugee: An Overview of Empirical Findings and Theoretical Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicassio, Perry M.

    1985-01-01

    Summarizes clinical and research literature on Southeast Asian refugees' adjustment in the United States and proposes the adoption of theoretical models that may help explain individual differences. Reports that acculturation, learned helplessness, and stress management models appear to aid the conceptualizing of refugee problems and provide a…

  14. Modeling goals and functions of control and safety systems - theoretical foundations and extensions of MFM

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lind, M.

    2005-10-01

    Multilevel Flow Modeling (MFM) has proven to be an effective modeling tool for reasoning about plant failure and control strategies and is currently exploited for operator support in diagnosis and on-line alarm analysis. Previous MFM research was focussed on representing goals and functions of process plants which generate, transform and distribute mass and energy. However, only a limited consideration has been given to the problems of modeling the control systems. Control functions are indispensable for operating any industrial plant. But modeling of control system functions has proven to be a more challenging problem than modeling functions of energy and mass processes. The problems were discussed by Lind and tentative solutions has been proposed but have not been investigated in depth until recently, partly due to the lack of an appropriate theoretical foundation. The purposes of the present report are to show that such a theoretical foundation for modeling goals and functions of control systems can be built from concepts and theories of action developed by Von Wright and to show how the theoretical foundation can be used to extend MFM with concepts for modeling control systems. The theoretical foundations has been presented in detail elsewhere by the present author without the particular focus on modeling control actions and MFM adopted here. (au)

  15. A new theoretical model of the quasistatic single-fiber pullout problem: Analysis of stress field

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Qing, Hai

    2013-01-01

    results of the stress distributions, in both fully bonded region and fully debonded region, are presented for a typical glass/epoxy composite system with different fibre volume fraction and model length. In fully bonded region, the theoretical results from present model are more accurate compared...... solution. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved....

  16. Modeling goals and functions of control and safety systems -theoretical foundations and extensions of MFM

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lind, M. [Oersted - DTU, Kgs. Lyngby (Denmark)

    2005-10-01

    Multilevel Flow Modeling (MFM) has proven to be an effective modeling tool for reasoning about plant failure and control strategies and is currently exploited for operator support in diagnosis and on-line alarm analysis. Previous MFM research was focussed on representing goals and functions of process plants which generate, transform and distribute mass and energy. However, only a limited consideration has been given to the problems of modeling the control systems. Control functions are indispensable for operating any industrial plant. But modeling of control system functions has proven to be a more challenging problem than modeling functions of energy and mass processes. The problems were discussed by Lind and tentative solutions has been proposed but have not been investigated in depth until recently, partly due to the lack of an appropriate theoretical foundation. The purposes of the present report are to show that such a theoretical foundation for modeling goals and functions of control systems can be built from concepts and theories of action developed by Von Wright and to show how the theoretical foundation can be used to extend MFM with concepts for modeling control systems. The theoretical foundations has been presented in detail elsewhere by the present author without the particular focus on modeling control actions and MFM adopted here. (au)

  17. Undergraduate Engineering Students' Beliefs, Coping Strategies, and Academic Performance: An Evaluation of Theoretical Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsieh, Pei-Hsuan; Sullivan, Jeremy R.; Sass, Daniel A.; Guerra, Norma S.

    2012-01-01

    Research has identified factors associated with academic success by evaluating relations among psychological and academic variables, although few studies have examined theoretical models to understand the complex links. This study used structural equation modeling to investigate whether the relation between test anxiety and final course grades was…

  18. Predictive analytics can support the ACO model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bradley, Paul

    2012-04-01

    Predictive analytics can be used to rapidly spot hard-to-identify opportunities to better manage care--a key tool in accountable care. When considering analytics models, healthcare providers should: Make value-based care a priority and act on information from analytics models. Create a road map that includes achievable steps, rather than major endeavors. Set long-term expectations and recognize that the effectiveness of an analytics program takes time, unlike revenue cycle initiatives that may show a quick return.

  19. Predictive modeling in homogeneous catalysis: a tutorial

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Maldonado, A.G.; Rothenberg, G.

    2010-01-01

    Predictive modeling has become a practical research tool in homogeneous catalysis. It can help to pinpoint ‘good regions’ in the catalyst space, narrowing the search for the optimal catalyst for a given reaction. Just like any other new idea, in silico catalyst optimization is accepted by some

  20. Model predictive control of smart microgrids

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hu, Jiefeng; Zhu, Jianguo; Guerrero, Josep M.

    2014-01-01

    required to realise high-performance of distributed generations and will realise innovative control techniques utilising model predictive control (MPC) to assist in coordinating the plethora of generation and load combinations, thus enable the effective exploitation of the clean renewable energy sources...

  1. Feedback model predictive control by randomized algorithms

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Batina, Ivo; Stoorvogel, Antonie Arij; Weiland, Siep

    2001-01-01

    In this paper we present a further development of an algorithm for stochastic disturbance rejection in model predictive control with input constraints based on randomized algorithms. The algorithm presented in our work can solve the problem of stochastic disturbance rejection approximately but with

  2. A Robustly Stabilizing Model Predictive Control Algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ackmece, A. Behcet; Carson, John M., III

    2007-01-01

    A model predictive control (MPC) algorithm that differs from prior MPC algorithms has been developed for controlling an uncertain nonlinear system. This algorithm guarantees the resolvability of an associated finite-horizon optimal-control problem in a receding-horizon implementation.

  3. Hierarchical Model Predictive Control for Resource Distribution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bendtsen, Jan Dimon; Trangbæk, K; Stoustrup, Jakob

    2010-01-01

    This paper deals with hierarchichal model predictive control (MPC) of distributed systems. A three level hierachical approach is proposed, consisting of a high level MPC controller, a second level of so-called aggregators, controlled by an online MPC-like algorithm, and a lower level of autonomous...

  4. Model Predictive Control based on Finite Impulse Response Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Prasath, Guru; Jørgensen, John Bagterp

    2008-01-01

    We develop a regularized l2 finite impulse response (FIR) predictive controller with input and input-rate constraints. Feedback is based on a simple constant output disturbance filter. The performance of the predictive controller in the face of plant-model mismatch is investigated by simulations ...

  5. On determining the prediction limits of mathematical models for time series

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peluso, E.; Gelfusa, M.; Lungaroni, M.; Talebzadeh, S.; Gaudio, P.; Murari, A.; Contributors, JET

    2016-01-01

    Prediction is one of the main objectives of scientific analysis and it refers to both modelling and forecasting. The determination of the limits of predictability is an important issue of both theoretical and practical relevance. In the case of modelling time series, reached a certain level in performance in either modelling or prediction, it is often important to assess whether all the information available in the data has been exploited or whether there are still margins for improvement of the tools being developed. In this paper, an information theoretic approach is proposed to address this issue and quantify the quality of the models and/or predictions. The excellent properties of the proposed indicator have been proved with the help of a systematic series of numerical tests and a concrete example of extreme relevance for nuclear fusion.

  6. Theoretical Predictions of Springing and Their Comparison with Full Scale Measurements

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gu, X.; Storhaug, G.; Vidic-Perunovic, Jelena

    2003-01-01

    The present paper considers a large ocean going ship with significant springing responses, which have made a large contribution to the fatigue cracking for certain structural details. Four different theories for predicting ship responses and associated computer programs for predictions of springing...... are described. These theories represent four different approaches with various characteristics, e.g. linear, scond-order, nonlinear, frequency-domain, time-domain, two-dimensional and three-dimensional, in calculating hydrodynamic loads and vibrations. The numerical programs, WASIM (DNV), SOST (DTU), SINO...... (CSSRC) and VERES (Marintek), have been well validated for ordinary ship responses. Assumptions regarding how the different programs are sued in the present calculations are provided. Sensitivity studies are carried out and the main results are presented. A selected number of full-scale measurements...

  7. What roles do errors serve in motor skill learning? An examination of two theoretical predictions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanli, Elizabeth A; Lee, Timothy D

    2014-01-01

    Easy-to-difficult and difficult-to-easy progressions of task difficulty during skill acquisition were examined in 2 experiments that assessed retention, dual-task, and transfer tests of learning. Findings of the first experiment suggest that an easy-to difficult progression did not consistently induce implicit learning processes and was not consistently beneficial to performance under a secondary-task load. The findings of experiment two did not support the predictions made based on schema theory and only partially supported predictions based on reinvestment theory. The authors interpret these findings to suggest that the timing of error in relation to the difficulty of the task (functional task difficulty) plays a role in the transfer of learning to novel versions of a task.

  8. Railway noise annoyance: exposure-response relationships and testing a theoretical model by structural equation analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pennig, Sibylle; Schady, Arthur

    2014-01-01

    In some regions the exposure to railway noise is extremely concentrated, which may lead to high residential annoyance. Nonacoustical factors contribute to these reactions, but there is limited evidence on the interrelations between the nonacoustical factors that influence railway noise annoyance. The aims of the present study were (1) to examine exposure-response relationships between long-term railway noise exposure and annoyance in a region severely affected by railway noise and (2) to determine a priori proposed interrelations between nonacoustical factors by structural equation analysis. Residents (n = 320) living close to railway tracks in the Middle Rhine Valley completed a socio-acoustic survey. Individual noise exposure levels were calculated by an acoustical simulation model for this area. The derived exposure-response relationships indicated considerably higher annoyance at the same noise exposure level than would have been predicted by the European Union standard curve, particularly for the night-time period. In the structural equation analysis, 72% of the variance in noise annoyance was explained by the noise exposure (L(den)) and nonacoustical variables. The model provides insights into several causal mechanisms underlying the formation of railway noise annoyance considering indirect and reciprocal effects. The concern about harmful effects of railway noise and railway traffic, the perceived control and coping capacity, and the individual noise sensitivity were the most important factors that influence noise annoyance. All effects of the nonacoustical factors on annoyance were mediated by the perceived control and coping capacity and additionally proposed indirect effects of the theoretical model were supported by the data.

  9. Statistically validated QSARs, based on theoretical descriptors, for modeling aquatic toxicity of organic chemicals in Pimephales promelas (fathead minnow).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papa, Ester; Villa, Fulvio; Gramatica, Paola

    2005-01-01

    The use of Quantitative Structure-Activity Relationships in assessing the potential negative effects of chemicals plays an important role in ecotoxicology. (LC50)(96h) in Pimephales promelas (Duluth database) is widely modeled as an aquatic toxicity end-point. The object of this study was to compare different molecular descriptors in the development of new statistically validated QSAR models to predict the aquatic toxicity of chemicals classified according to their MOA and in a unique general model. The applied multiple linear regression approach (ordinary least squares) is based on theoretical molecular descriptor variety (1D, 2D, and 3D, from DRAGON package, and some calculated logP). The best combination of modeling descriptors was selected by the Genetic Algorithm-Variable Subset Selection procedure. The robustness and the predictive performance of the proposed models was verified using both internal (cross-validation by LOO, bootstrap, Y-scrambling) and external statistical validations (by splitting the original data set into training and validation sets by Kohonen-artificial neural networks (K-ANN)). The model applicability domain (AD) was checked by the leverage approach to verify prediction reliability.

  10. Rock Fracture Toughness Under Mode II Loading: A Theoretical Model Based on Local Strain Energy Density

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rashidi Moghaddam, M.; Ayatollahi, M. R.; Berto, F.

    2018-01-01

    The values of mode II fracture toughness reported in the literature for several rocks are studied theoretically by using a modified criterion based on strain energy density averaged over a control volume around the crack tip. The modified criterion takes into account the effect of T-stress in addition to the singular terms of stresses/strains. The experimental results are related to mode II fracture tests performed on the semicircular bend and Brazilian disk specimens. There are good agreements between theoretical predictions using the generalized averaged strain energy density criterion and the experimental results. The theoretical results reveal that the value of mode II fracture toughness is affected by the size of control volume around the crack tip and also the magnitude and sign of T-stress.

  11. Disease prediction models and operational readiness.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Courtney D Corley

    Full Text Available The objective of this manuscript is to present a systematic review of biosurveillance models that operate on select agents and can forecast the occurrence of a disease event. We define a disease event to be a biological event with focus on the One Health paradigm. These events are characterized by evidence of infection and or disease condition. We reviewed models that attempted to predict a disease event, not merely its transmission dynamics and we considered models involving pathogens of concern as determined by the US National Select Agent Registry (as of June 2011. We searched commercial and government databases and harvested Google search results for eligible models, using terms and phrases provided by public health analysts relating to biosurveillance, remote sensing, risk assessments, spatial epidemiology, and ecological niche modeling. After removal of duplications and extraneous material, a core collection of 6,524 items was established, and these publications along with their abstracts are presented in a semantic wiki at http://BioCat.pnnl.gov. As a result, we systematically reviewed 44 papers, and the results are presented in this analysis. We identified 44 models, classified as one or more of the following: event prediction (4, spatial (26, ecological niche (28, diagnostic or clinical (6, spread or response (9, and reviews (3. The model parameters (e.g., etiology, climatic, spatial, cultural and data sources (e.g., remote sensing, non-governmental organizations, expert opinion, epidemiological were recorded and reviewed. A component of this review is the identification of verification and validation (V&V methods applied to each model, if any V&V method was reported. All models were classified as either having undergone Some Verification or Validation method, or No Verification or Validation. We close by outlining an initial set of operational readiness level guidelines for disease prediction models based upon established Technology

  12. Caries risk assessment models in caries prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amila Zukanović

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Objective. The aim of this research was to assess the efficiency of different multifactor models in caries prediction. Material and methods. Data from the questionnaire and objective examination of 109 examinees was entered into the Cariogram, Previser and Caries-Risk Assessment Tool (CAT multifactor risk assessment models. Caries risk was assessed with the help of all three models for each patient, classifying them as low, medium or high-risk patients. The development of new caries lesions over a period of three years [Decay Missing Filled Tooth (DMFT increment = difference between Decay Missing Filled Tooth Surface (DMFTS index at baseline and follow up], provided for examination of the predictive capacity concerning different multifactor models. Results. The data gathered showed that different multifactor risk assessment models give significantly different results (Friedman test: Chi square = 100.073, p=0.000. Cariogram is the model which identified the majority of examinees as medium risk patients (70%. The other two models were more radical in risk assessment, giving more unfavorable risk –profiles for patients. In only 12% of the patients did the three multifactor models assess the risk in the same way. Previser and CAT gave the same results in 63% of cases – the Wilcoxon test showed that there is no statistically significant difference in caries risk assessment between these two models (Z = -1.805, p=0.071. Conclusions. Evaluation of three different multifactor caries risk assessment models (Cariogram, PreViser and CAT showed that only the Cariogram can successfully predict new caries development in 12-year-old Bosnian children.

  13. Expectancy-Violation and Information-Theoretic Models of Melodic Complexity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tuomas Eerola

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available The present study assesses two types of models for melodic complexity: one based on expectancy violations and the other one related to an information-theoretic account of redundancy in music. Seven different datasets spanning artificial sequences, folk and pop songs were used to refine and assess the models. The refinement eliminated unnecessary components from both types of models. The final analysis pitted three variants of the two model types against each other and could explain from 46-74% of the variance in the ratings across the datasets. The most parsimonious models were identified with an information-theoretic criterion. This suggested that the simplified expectancy-violation models were the most efficient for these sets of data. However, the differences between all optimized models were subtle in terms both of performance and simplicity.

  14. A Comparative Study of Theoretical Graph Models for Characterizing Structural Networks of Human Brain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaojin Li

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Previous studies have investigated both structural and functional brain networks via graph-theoretical methods. However, there is an important issue that has not been adequately discussed before: what is the optimal theoretical graph model for describing the structural networks of human brain? In this paper, we perform a comparative study to address this problem. Firstly, large-scale cortical regions of interest (ROIs are localized by recently developed and validated brain reference system named Dense Individualized Common Connectivity-based Cortical Landmarks (DICCCOL to address the limitations in the identification of the brain network ROIs in previous studies. Then, we construct structural brain networks based on diffusion tensor imaging (DTI data. Afterwards, the global and local graph properties of the constructed structural brain networks are measured using the state-of-the-art graph analysis algorithms and tools and are further compared with seven popular theoretical graph models. In addition, we compare the topological properties between two graph models, namely, stickiness-index-based model (STICKY and scale-free gene duplication model (SF-GD, that have higher similarity with the real structural brain networks in terms of global and local graph properties. Our experimental results suggest that among the seven theoretical graph models compared in this study, STICKY and SF-GD models have better performances in characterizing the structural human brain network.

  15. Comparison of two mean-field based theoretical analysis methods for SIS model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Jiaquan; Lu, Dan; Yang, Shunkun

    2017-11-01

    Epidemic spreading has been intensively studied in SIS epidemic model. Although the mean-field theory of SIS model has been widely used in the research, there is a lack of comparative results between different theoretical calculations, and the differences between them should be systematically explained. In this paper, we have compared different theoretical solutions for mean-field theory and explained the underlying reason. We first describe the differences between different equations for mean-field theory in different networks. The results show that the difference between mean-field reaction equations is due to the different probability consideration for the infection process. This finding will help us to design better theoretical solutions for epidemic models.

  16. Theoretical prediction of fracture conditions for delithiation in silicon anode of lithium ion battery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cho, Yong-Hee; Booh, Seongwoon; Cho, Eunseog; Lee, Hyosug; Shin, Jaikwang

    2017-10-01

    Structural instability such as fractures of a silicon anode in a lithium ion battery, intrinsically induced by the large variation of the ratio, Li/Si, upon lithiation and delithiation, limits its potential for commercial use. Here, we study mechanical properties during delithiation in lithiated silicon particles to identify the conditions under which fracture is preventing during delithiation in terms of Li contents and silicon particle sizes. We employed the first principles calculation within the density functional framework combined with the continuum based calculation for the macroscopic mechanical properties. The theoretical limit for the largest crystalline silicon particle size that can prevent fractures upon complete delithiation is ˜0.6 μm at the lithium flux per unit surface area of 5.657 × 10-2 s-1 nm out of amorphous Li3.75Si, much larger than the critical fracture size (0.15 μm) that occurs during the first lithiation of crystalline Si. Furthermore, fractures during delithiation are nearly unaffected by the silicon particle size for a residual lithium fraction larger than x ˜ 2.1 in amorphous LixSi.

  17. Theoretical prediction of fracture conditions for delithiation in silicon anode of lithium ion battery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yong-Hee Cho

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Structural instability such as fractures of a silicon anode in a lithium ion battery, intrinsically induced by the large variation of the ratio, Li/Si, upon lithiation and delithiation, limits its potential for commercial use. Here, we study mechanical properties during delithiation in lithiated silicon particles to identify the conditions under which fracture is preventing during delithiation in terms of Li contents and silicon particle sizes. We employed the first principles calculation within the density functional framework combined with the continuum based calculation for the macroscopic mechanical properties. The theoretical limit for the largest crystalline silicon particle size that can prevent fractures upon complete delithiation is ∼0.6 μm at the lithium flux per unit surface area of 5.657 × 10−2 s−1 nm out of amorphous Li3.75Si, much larger than the critical fracture size (0.15 μm that occurs during the first lithiation of crystalline Si. Furthermore, fractures during delithiation are nearly unaffected by the silicon particle size for a residual lithium fraction larger than x ∼ 2.1 in amorphous LixSi.

  18. A Theoretical Approach to Predict the Fatigue Life of Flexible Pipes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Renato M. de Sousa

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper focuses on a theoretical approach to access the fatigue life of flexible pipes. This methodology employs functions that convert forces and moments obtained in time-domain global analyses into stresses in their tensile armors. The stresses are then processed by well-known cycle counting methods, and S-N curves are used to evaluate the fatigue damage at several points in the pipe’s cross-section. Finally, Palmgren-Miner linear damage hypothesis is assumed in order to calculate the accumulated fatigue damage. A study on the fatigue life of a flexible pipe employing this methodology is presented. The main points addressed in the study are the influence of friction between layers, the effect of the annulus conditions, the importance of evaluating the fatigue life in various points of the pipe’s cross-section, and the effect of mean stresses. The results obtained suggest that the friction between layers and the annulus conditions strongly influences the fatigue life of flexible pipes. Moreover, mean stress effects are also significant, and at least half of the wires in each analyzed section of the pipe must be considered in a typical fatigue analysis.

  19. Theoretical prediction the removal of mercury from flue gas by MOFs

    KAUST Repository

    Liu, Yang

    2016-07-19

    Removal of mercury from flue gas has been considered as one of the hot topics in both the scientific and industrial world. Adsorption of elemental mercury (Hg) and oxidized mercury species (HgCl, HgO, and HgS) on a novel metal organic framework (MOF) material, named Mg/DOBDC, with unsaturated metal centers was investigated using density functional theory (DFT) calculations. The results show that Hg stably physi-sorbed on the unsaturated metal center (magnesium ion) of Mg/DOBDC with a binding energy (BE) of −27.5 kJ/mol. A direct interaction between Hg and magnesium ion was revealed by the partial density of state (PDOS) analysis. HgCl multi-interacts with two neighboring magnesium ions simultaneously by its Cl endings and thus resulted in strong adsorption strength (−89.0 kJ/mol). The adsorption energies of HgO and HgS on the Mg/DOBDC were as high as −117.0 kJ/mol and −169.7 kJ/mol, respectively, indicating a strong chemisorption. Theoretical calculations in this study reveal that Mg/DOBDC has the potential to serve as an efficient material for removal of mercury from flue gas.

  20. Electrostatic ion thrusters - towards predictive modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kalentev, O.; Matyash, K.; Duras, J.; Lueskow, K.F.; Schneider, R. [Ernst-Moritz-Arndt Universitaet Greifswald, D-17489 (Germany); Koch, N. [Technische Hochschule Nuernberg Georg Simon Ohm, Kesslerplatz 12, D-90489 Nuernberg (Germany); Schirra, M. [Thales Electronic Systems GmbH, Soeflinger Strasse 100, D-89077 Ulm (Germany)

    2014-02-15

    The development of electrostatic ion thrusters so far has mainly been based on empirical and qualitative know-how, and on evolutionary iteration steps. This resulted in considerable effort regarding prototype design, construction and testing and therefore in significant development and qualification costs and high time demands. For future developments it is anticipated to implement simulation tools which allow for quantitative prediction of ion thruster performance, long-term behavior and space craft interaction prior to hardware design and construction. Based on integrated numerical models combining self-consistent kinetic plasma models with plasma-wall interaction modules a new quality in the description of electrostatic thrusters can be reached. These open the perspective for predictive modeling in this field. This paper reviews the application of a set of predictive numerical modeling tools on an ion thruster model of the HEMP-T (High Efficiency Multi-stage Plasma Thruster) type patented by Thales Electron Devices GmbH. (copyright 2014 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH and Co. KGaA, Weinheim) (orig.)

  1. Characterizing Attention with Predictive Network Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenberg, M D; Finn, E S; Scheinost, D; Constable, R T; Chun, M M

    2017-04-01

    Recent work shows that models based on functional connectivity in large-scale brain networks can predict individuals' attentional abilities. While being some of the first generalizable neuromarkers of cognitive function, these models also inform our basic understanding of attention, providing empirical evidence that: (i) attention is a network property of brain computation; (ii) the functional architecture that underlies attention can be measured while people are not engaged in any explicit task; and (iii) this architecture supports a general attentional ability that is common to several laboratory-based tasks and is impaired in attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). Looking ahead, connectivity-based predictive models of attention and other cognitive abilities and behaviors may potentially improve the assessment, diagnosis, and treatment of clinical dysfunction. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Genetic models of homosexuality: generating testable predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gavrilets, Sergey; Rice, William R

    2006-01-01

    Homosexuality is a common occurrence in humans and other species, yet its genetic and evolutionary basis is poorly understood. Here, we formulate and study a series of simple mathematical models for the purpose of predicting empirical patterns that can be used to determine the form of selection that leads to polymorphism of genes influencing homosexuality. Specifically, we develop theory to make contrasting predictions about the genetic characteristics of genes influencing homosexuality including: (i) chromosomal location, (ii) dominance among segregating alleles and (iii) effect sizes that distinguish between the two major models for their polymorphism: the overdominance and sexual antagonism models. We conclude that the measurement of the genetic characteristics of quantitative trait loci (QTLs) found in genomic screens for genes influencing homosexuality can be highly informative in resolving the form of natural selection maintaining their polymorphism. PMID:17015344

  3. A statistical model for predicting muscle performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byerly, Diane Leslie De Caix

    The objective of these studies was to develop a capability for predicting muscle performance and fatigue to be utilized for both space- and ground-based applications. To develop this predictive model, healthy test subjects performed a defined, repetitive dynamic exercise to failure using a Lordex spinal machine. Throughout the exercise, surface electromyography (SEMG) data were collected from the erector spinae using a Mega Electronics ME3000 muscle tester and surface electrodes placed on both sides of the back muscle. These data were analyzed using a 5th order Autoregressive (AR) model and statistical regression analysis. It was determined that an AR derived parameter, the mean average magnitude of AR poles, significantly correlated with the maximum number of repetitions (designated Rmax) that a test subject was able to perform. Using the mean average magnitude of AR poles, a test subject's performance to failure could be predicted as early as the sixth repetition of the exercise. This predictive model has the potential to provide a basis for improving post-space flight recovery, monitoring muscle atrophy in astronauts and assessing the effectiveness of countermeasures, monitoring astronaut performance and fatigue during Extravehicular Activity (EVA) operations, providing pre-flight assessment of the ability of an EVA crewmember to perform a given task, improving the design of training protocols and simulations for strenuous International Space Station assembly EVA, and enabling EVA work task sequences to be planned enhancing astronaut performance and safety. Potential ground-based, medical applications of the predictive model include monitoring muscle deterioration and performance resulting from illness, establishing safety guidelines in the industry for repetitive tasks, monitoring the stages of rehabilitation for muscle-related injuries sustained in sports and accidents, and enhancing athletic performance through improved training protocols while reducing

  4. The Roy Adaptation Model: A Theoretical Framework for Nurses Providing Care to Individuals With Anorexia Nervosa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jennings, Karen M

    Using a nursing theoretical framework to understand, elucidate, and propose nursing research is fundamental to knowledge development. This article presents the Roy Adaptation Model as a theoretical framework to better understand individuals with anorexia nervosa during acute treatment, and the role of nursing assessments and interventions in the promotion of weight restoration. Nursing assessments and interventions situated within the Roy Adaptation Model take into consideration how weight restoration does not occur in isolation but rather reflects an adaptive process within external and internal environments, and has the potential for more holistic care.

  5. Toward an Integrative Model of Creativity and Personality: Theoretical Suggestions and Preliminary Empirical Testing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fü rst, Guillaume; Ghisletta, Paolo; Lubart, Todd

    2016-01-01

    The present work proposes an integrative model of creativity that includes personality traits and cognitive processes. This model hypothesizes that three high-order personality factors predict two main process factors, which in turn predict intensity and achievement of creative activities. The personality factors are: "Plasticity" (high…

  6. Misalignment Effect Function Measurement for Oblique Rotation Axes: Counterintuitive Predictions and Theoretical Extensions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellis, Stephen R.; Adelstein, Bernard D.; Yeom, Kiwon

    2013-01-01

    The Misalignment Effect Function (MEF) describes the decrement in manual performance associated with a rotation between operators' visual display frame of reference and that of their manual control. It now has been empirically determined for rotation axes oblique to canonical body axes and is compared with the MEF previously measured for rotations about canonical axes. A targeting rule, called the Secant Rule, based on these earlier measurements is derived from a hypothetical process and shown to describe some of the data from three previous experiments. It explains the motion trajectories determined for rotations less than 65deg in purely kinematic terms without the need to appeal to a mental rotation process. Further analysis of this rule in three dimensions applied to oblique rotation axes leads to a somewhat surprising expectation that the difficulty posed by rotational misalignment should get harder as the required movement is shorter. This prediction is confirmed. Geometry underlying this rule also suggests analytic extensions for predicting more generally the difficulty of making movements in arbitrary directions subject to arbitrary misalignments.

  7. Uranium dioxide-sodium interactions. Development of a theoretical model. Fitting of this model to the experimental results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Syrmalenios, Panayotis

    1973-01-01

    This research thesis addresses the issue of safety of fast neutron reactors, and more particularly is a contribution of the study of mechanisms of interaction between molten fuel and sodium. It aims at developing tools of prediction of consequences of three main types of accidents: local fusion of a fuel rod and contact of the fuel with the surrounding sodium, failure of an assembly due to the fusion of several rods and fuel-coolant interaction within the assembly, and fuel-coolant interaction at the level of the reactor core. The author first proposes a bibliographical analysis of experimental and theoretical studies related to this issue of interaction between a hot body and a cold liquid, and of its consequences. Then, he introduces a mathematical model and its resolution method, and reports the use of the associated code (Corfou) for the interpretation of experimental results: expulsion of cold sodium column by expansion of an overheated sodium mass, fusion of a rod by Joule effect, interaction between UO 2 molten by high frequency with liquid sodium. Finally, the author discusses a comparison between the Corfou code and other models which are being currently developed [fr

  8. Prediction models : the right tool for the right problem

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kappen, Teus H.; Peelen, Linda M.

    2016-01-01

    PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Perioperative prediction models can help to improve personalized patient care by providing individual risk predictions to both patients and providers. However, the scientific literature on prediction model development and validation can be quite technical and challenging to

  9. Neuro-fuzzy modeling in bankruptcy prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vlachos D.

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available For the past 30 years the problem of bankruptcy prediction had been thoroughly studied. From the paper of Altman in 1968 to the recent papers in the '90s, the progress of prediction accuracy was not satisfactory. This paper investigates an alternative modeling of the system (firm, combining neural networks and fuzzy controllers, i.e. using neuro-fuzzy models. Classical modeling is based on mathematical models that describe the behavior of the firm under consideration. The main idea of fuzzy control, on the other hand, is to build a model of a human control expert who is capable of controlling the process without thinking in a mathematical model. This control expert specifies his control action in the form of linguistic rules. These control rules are translated into the framework of fuzzy set theory providing a calculus, which can stimulate the behavior of the control expert and enhance its performance. The accuracy of the model is studied using datasets from previous research papers.

  10. Creep crack growth predictions in INCO 718 using a continuum damage model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walker, K. P.; Wilson, D. A.

    1985-01-01

    Creep crack growth tests have been carried out in compact type specimens of INCO 718 at 1200 F (649 C). Theoretical creep crack growth predictions have been carried out by incorporating a unified viscoplastic constitutive model and a continuum damage model into the ARAQUS nonlinear finite element program. Material constants for both the viscoplastic model and the creep continuum damage model were determined from tests carried out on uniaxial bar specimens of INCO 718 at 1200 F (649 C). A comparison of the theoretical creep crack growth rates obtained from the finite element predictions with the experimentally observed creep crack growth rates indicates that the viscoplastic/continuum damage model can be used to successfully predict creep crack growth in compact type specimens using material constants obtained from uniaxial bar specimens of INCO 718 at 1200 F (649 C).

  11. Theoretical prediction of novel two-dimensional planar aluminum nitride allotropes: first principles calculations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kazempour, Behnam; Safari, E. Keshavarz; Rostami, R.

    2018-03-01

    This paper uses first principles calculations based on density functional theory to predict the possibility or ability to synthesize two-dimensional planar allotropes of aluminum nitride, as well as study their structural and electronic properties. The investigated systems include six allotropes in which the atoms of aluminum and nitrogen participate in chemical bonds with sp 2 and sp 1 + sp 2 hybridization. After the structural relaxation, all these allotropes—despite being less stable than the graphene-like aluminum nitride allotrope—still retain their original structure. The degree of structural stability of these allotropes depends on the hybridization of the constituent atoms and the number density of atoms per unit cell. Regardless of the structure type and the hybridization of the atoms, all these allotropes are semiconductors; however, the amount and type of energy gap varies for different structures.

  12. Information-theoretic identification of predictive SNPs and supervised visualization of genome-wide association studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhasi, Kavitha; Zhang, Li; Brazeau, Daniel; Zhang, Aidong; Ramanathan, Murali

    2006-01-01

    The size, dimensionality and the limited range of the data values makes visualization of single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) datasets challenging. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the usefulness of 3D VizStruct, a novel multi-dimensional data visualization technique for SNP datasets capable of identifying informative SNPs in genome-wide association studies. VizStruct is an interactive visualization technique that reduces multi-dimensional data to three dimensions using a combination of the discrete Fourier transform and the Kullback–Leibler divergence. The performance of 3D VizStruct was challenged with several diverse, biologically relevant published datasets including the human lipoprotein lipase (LPL) gene locus, the human Y-chromosome in several populations and a multi-locus genotype dataset of coral samples from four populations. In every case, the SNPs and or polymorphic markers identified by the 3D VizStruct mapping were predictive of the underlying biology. PMID:16899448

  13. Modeling cognitive behavior in nuclear power plants: An overview of contributing theoretical traditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Woods, D.D.; Roth, E.M.

    1986-01-01

    This paper reviews the major theoretical literatures that are relevant to modeling human cognitive activities important to nuclear power plant safety. The traditions considered include control theory, communication theory, statistical decision theory, information processing models and symbolic processing models. The review reveals a gradual convergence towards models that incorporate elements from multiple traditions. Models from the control theory tradition have gradually evolved to include rich knowledge representations borrowed from the symbolic processing work. At the same time theorists in the symbolic processing tradition are beginning to grapple with some of the critical issues involved in modeling complex real world domain

  14. Theoretical-empirical model of the steam-water cycle of the power unit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grzegorz Szapajko

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available The diagnostics of the energy conversion systems’ operation is realised as a result of collecting, processing, evaluatingand analysing the measurement signals. The result of the analysis is the determination of the process state. It requires a usageof the thermal processes models. Construction of the analytical model with the auxiliary empirical functions built-in brings satisfyingresults. The paper presents theoretical-empirical model of the steam-water cycle. Worked out mathematical simulation model containspartial models of the turbine, the regenerative heat exchangers and the condenser. Statistical verification of the model is presented.

  15. Predicting Public Bicycle Adoption Using the Technology Acceptance Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benjamin T. Hazen

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Bicycle sharing programs provide a sustainable mode of urban transportation. Although cities across the globe have developed these systems for their citizens and visitors, usage rates are not as high as anticipated. This research uses the technology acceptance model as the basis to understand one’s intention to adopt bicycle sharing programs. Using survey data derived from 421 participants in Beijing, China, the proposed covariance-based structural equation model consisting of perceived quality, perceived convenience, and perceived value is found to predict 50.5% of the variance in adoption intention. The findings of this research contribute to theory and practice in the burgeoning literature on public bicycle systems and sustainable urban transportation by offering a theoretical lens through which to consider system adoption, and providing information to practitioners as to what factors might contribute most to adoption.

  16. A New Approach for Modeling Darrieus-Type Vertical Axis Wind Turbine Rotors Using Electrical Equivalent Circuit Analogy: Basis of Theoretical Formulations and Model Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pierre Tchakoua

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Models are crucial in the engineering design process because they can be used for both the optimization of design parameters and the prediction of performance. Thus, models can significantly reduce design, development and optimization costs. This paper proposes a novel equivalent electrical model for Darrieus-type vertical axis wind turbines (DTVAWTs. The proposed model was built from the mechanical description given by the Paraschivoiu double-multiple streamtube model and is based on the analogy between mechanical and electrical circuits. This work addresses the physical concepts and theoretical formulations underpinning the development of the model. After highlighting the working principle of the DTVAWT, the step-by-step development of the model is presented. For assessment purposes, simulations of aerodynamic characteristics and those of corresponding electrical components are performed and compared.

  17. Dependence of tropical cyclone development on coriolis parameter: A theoretical model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Liyuan; Li, Tim; Bi, Mingyu; Liu, Jia; Peng, Melinda

    2018-03-01

    A simple theoretical model was formulated to investigate how tropical cyclone (TC) intensification depends on the Coriolis parameter. The theoretical framework includes a two-layer free atmosphere and an Ekman boundary layer at the bottom. The linkage between the free atmosphere and the boundary layer is through the Ekman pumping vertical velocity in proportion to the vorticity at the top of the boundary layer. The closure of this linear system assumes a simple relationship between the free atmosphere diabatic heating and the boundary layer moisture convergence. Under a set of realistic atmospheric parameter values, the model suggests that the most preferred latitude for TC development is around 5° without considering other factors. The theoretical result is confirmed by high-resolution WRF model simulations in a zero-mean flow and a constant SST environment on an f -plane with different Coriolis parameters. Given an initially balanced weak vortex, the TC-like vortex intensifies most rapidly at the reference latitude of 5°. Thus, the WRF model simulations confirm the f-dependent characteristics of TC intensification rate as suggested by the theoretical model.

  18. Predictive Models for Carcinogenicity and Mutagenicity ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mutagenicity and carcinogenicity are endpoints of major environmental and regulatory concern. These endpoints are also important targets for development of alternative methods for screening and prediction due to the large number of chemicals of potential concern and the tremendous cost (in time, money, animals) of rodent carcinogenicity bioassays. Both mutagenicity and carcinogenicity involve complex, cellular processes that are only partially understood. Advances in technologies and generation of new data will permit a much deeper understanding. In silico methods for predicting mutagenicity and rodent carcinogenicity based on chemical structural features, along with current mutagenicity and carcinogenicity data sets, have performed well for local prediction (i.e., within specific chemical classes), but are less successful for global prediction (i.e., for a broad range of chemicals). The predictivity of in silico methods can be improved by improving the quality of the data base and endpoints used for modelling. In particular, in vitro assays for clastogenicity need to be improved to reduce false positives (relative to rodent carcinogenicity) and to detect compounds that do not interact directly with DNA or have epigenetic activities. New assays emerging to complement or replace some of the standard assays include VitotoxTM, GreenScreenGC, and RadarScreen. The needs of industry and regulators to assess thousands of compounds necessitate the development of high-t

  19. Disease Prediction Models and Operational Readiness

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Corley, Courtney D.; Pullum, Laura L.; Hartley, David M.; Benedum, Corey M.; Noonan, Christine F.; Rabinowitz, Peter M.; Lancaster, Mary J.

    2014-03-19

    INTRODUCTION: The objective of this manuscript is to present a systematic review of biosurveillance models that operate on select agents and can forecast the occurrence of a disease event. One of the primary goals of this research was to characterize the viability of biosurveillance models to provide operationally relevant information for decision makers to identify areas for future research. Two critical characteristics differentiate this work from other infectious disease modeling reviews. First, we reviewed models that attempted to predict the disease event, not merely its transmission dynamics. Second, we considered models involving pathogens of concern as determined by the US National Select Agent Registry (as of June 2011). Methods: We searched dozens of commercial and government databases and harvested Google search results for eligible models utilizing terms and phrases provided by public health analysts relating to biosurveillance, remote sensing, risk assessments, spatial epidemiology, and ecological niche-modeling, The publication date of search results returned are bound by the dates of coverage of each database and the date in which the search was performed, however all searching was completed by December 31, 2010. This returned 13,767 webpages and 12,152 citations. After de-duplication and removal of extraneous material, a core collection of 6,503 items was established and these publications along with their abstracts are presented in a semantic wiki at http://BioCat.pnnl.gov. Next, PNNL’s IN-SPIRE visual analytics software was used to cross-correlate these publications with the definition for a biosurveillance model resulting in the selection of 54 documents that matched the criteria resulting Ten of these documents, However, dealt purely with disease spread models, inactivation of bacteria, or the modeling of human immune system responses to pathogens rather than predicting disease events. As a result, we systematically reviewed 44 papers and the

  20. ECONOMIC AND MATHEMATICAL MODEL OF PREDICTION OF DEVIATION IN MOSCOW SUBURBAN RAILWAY COMPLEX

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dmitry I. Valdman

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with the theoretical aspects of mathematical modeling and forecasting. Additionally, it describes a mathematical model for forecasting the number of incidents, depending on the number of different types of planned works with one and the same subject in service facilities, validation of the model via substituting of the data and comparing the predicted values calculated by the model and the actual values for the same periods.