WorldWideScience

Sample records for model systematically underestimates

  1. CMIP5 land surface models systematically underestimate inter-annual variability of net ecosystem exchange in semi-arid southwestern North America.

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacBean, N.; Scott, R. L.; Biederman, J. A.; Vuichard, N.; Hudson, A.; Barnes, M.; Fox, A. M.; Smith, W. K.; Peylin, P. P.; Maignan, F.; Moore, D. J.

    2017-12-01

    Recent studies based on analysis of atmospheric CO2 inversions, satellite data and terrestrial biosphere model simulations have suggested that semi-arid ecosystems play a dominant role in the interannual variability and long-term trend in the global carbon sink. These studies have largely cited the response of vegetation activity to changing moisture availability as the primary mechanism of variability. However, some land surface models (LSMs) used in these studies have performed poorly in comparison to satellite-based observations of vegetation dynamics in semi-arid regions. Further analysis is therefore needed to ensure semi-arid carbon cycle processes are well represented in global scale LSMs before we can fully establish their contribution to the global carbon cycle. In this study, we evaluated annual net ecosystem exchange (NEE) simulated by CMIP5 land surface models using observations from 20 Ameriflux sites across semi-arid southwestern North America. We found that CMIP5 models systematically underestimate the magnitude and sign of NEE inter-annual variability; therefore, the true role of semi-arid regions in the global carbon cycle may be even more important than previously thought. To diagnose the factors responsible for this bias, we used the ORCHIDEE LSM to test different climate forcing data, prescribed vegetation fractions and model structures. Climate and prescribed vegetation do contribute to uncertainty in annual NEE simulations, but the bias is primarily caused by incorrect timing and magnitude of peak gross carbon fluxes. Modifications to the hydrology scheme improved simulations of soil moisture in comparison to data. This in turn improved the seasonal cycle of carbon uptake due to a more realistic limitation on photosynthesis during water stress. However, the peak fluxes are still too low, and phenology is poorly represented for desert shrubs and grasses. We provide suggestions on model developments needed to tackle these issues in the future.

  2. Systematic underestimation of the age of samples with saturating exponential behaviour and inhomogeneous dose distribution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brennan, B.J.

    2000-01-01

    In luminescence and ESR studies, a systematic underestimate of the (average) equivalent dose, and thus also the age, of a sample can occur when there is significant variation of the natural dose within the sample and some regions approach saturation. This is demonstrated explicitly for a material that exhibits a single-saturating-exponential growth of signal with dose. The result is valid for any geometry (e.g. a plain layer, spherical grain, etc.) and some illustrative cases are modelled, with the age bias exceeding 10% in extreme cases. If the dose distribution within the sample can be modelled accurately, it is possible to correct for the bias in the estimates of equivalent dose estimate and age. While quantifying the effect would be more difficult, similar systematic biases in dose and age estimates are likely in other situations more complex than the one modelled

  3. Earth System Models Underestimate Soil Carbon Diagnostic Times in Dry and Cold Regions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jing, W.; Xia, J.; Zhou, X.; Huang, K.; Huang, Y.; Jian, Z.; Jiang, L.; Xu, X.; Liang, J.; Wang, Y. P.; Luo, Y.

    2017-12-01

    Soils contain the largest organic carbon (C) reservoir in the Earth's surface and strongly modulate the terrestrial feedback to climate change. Large uncertainty exists in current Earth system models (ESMs) in simulating soil organic C (SOC) dynamics, calling for a systematic diagnosis on their performance based on observations. Here, we built a global database of SOC diagnostic time (i.e.,turnover times; τsoil) measured at 320 sites with four different approaches. We found that the estimated τsoil was comparable among approaches of 14C dating () (median with 25 and 75 percentiles), 13C shifts due to vegetation change () and the ratio of stock over flux (), but was shortest from laboratory incubation studies (). The state-of-the-art ESMs underestimated the τsoil in most biomes, even by >10 and >5 folds in cold and dry regions, respectively. Moreover,we identified clear negative dependences of τsoil on temperature and precipitation in both of the observational and modeling results. Compared with Community Land Model (version 4), the incorporation of soil vertical profile (CLM4.5) could substantially extend the τsoil of SOC. Our findings suggest the accuracy of climate-C cycle feedback in current ESMs could be enhanced by an improved understanding of SOC dynamics under the limited hydrothermal conditions.

  4. Maximum rates of climate change are systematically underestimated in the geological record.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kemp, David B; Eichenseer, Kilian; Kiessling, Wolfgang

    2015-11-10

    Recently observed rates of environmental change are typically much higher than those inferred for the geological past. At the same time, the magnitudes of ancient changes were often substantially greater than those established in recent history. The most pertinent disparity, however, between recent and geological rates is the timespan over which the rates are measured, which typically differ by several orders of magnitude. Here we show that rates of marked temperature changes inferred from proxy data in Earth history scale with measurement timespan as an approximate power law across nearly six orders of magnitude (10(2) to >10(7) years). This scaling reveals how climate signals measured in the geological record alias transient variability, even during the most pronounced climatic perturbations of the Phanerozoic. Our findings indicate that the true attainable pace of climate change on timescales of greatest societal relevance is underestimated in geological archives.

  5. Evidence for link between modelled trends in Antarctic sea ice and underestimated westerly wind changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Purich, Ariaan; Cai, Wenju; England, Matthew H; Cowan, Tim

    2016-02-04

    Despite global warming, total Antarctic sea ice coverage increased over 1979-2013. However, the majority of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 models simulate a decline. Mechanisms causing this discrepancy have so far remained elusive. Here we show that weaker trends in the intensification of the Southern Hemisphere westerly wind jet simulated by the models may contribute to this disparity. During austral summer, a strengthened jet leads to increased upwelling of cooler subsurface water and strengthened equatorward transport, conducive to increased sea ice. As the majority of models underestimate summer jet trends, this cooling process is underestimated compared with observations and is insufficient to offset warming in the models. Through the sea ice-albedo feedback, models produce a high-latitude surface ocean warming and sea ice decline, contrasting the observed net cooling and sea ice increase. A realistic simulation of observed wind changes may be crucial for reproducing the recent observed sea ice increase.

  6. How systematic age underestimation can impede understanding of fish population dynamics: Lessons learned from a Lake Superior cisco stock

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yule, D.L.; Stockwell, J.D.; Black, J.A.; Cullis, K.I.; Cholwek, G.A.; Myers, J.T.

    2008-01-01

    Systematic underestimation of fish age can impede understanding of recruitment variability and adaptive strategies (like longevity) and can bias estimates of survivorship. We suspected that previous estimates of annual survival (S; range = 0.20-0.44) for Lake Superior ciscoes Coregonus artedi developed from scale ages were biased low. To test this hypothesis, we estimated the total instantaneous mortality rate of adult ciscoes from the Thunder Bay, Ontario, stock by use of cohort-based catch curves developed from commercial gill-net catches and otolith-aged fish. Mean S based on otolith ages was greater for adult females (0.80) than for adult males (0.75), but these differences were not significant. Applying the results of a study of agreement between scale and otolith ages, we modeled a scale age for each otolith-aged fish to reconstruct catch curves. Using modeled scale ages, estimates of S (0.42 for females, 0.36 for males) were comparable with those reported in past studies. We conducted a November 2005 acoustic and midwater trawl survey to estimate the abundance of ciscoes when the fish were being harvested for roe. Estimated exploitation rates were 0.085 for females and 0.025 for males, and the instantaneous rates of fishing mortality were 0.089 for females and 0.025 for males. The instantaneous rates of natural mortality were 0.131 and 0.265 for females and males, respectively. Using otolith ages, we found that strong year-classes at large during November 2005 were caught in high numbers as age-1 fish in previous annual bottom trawl surveys, whereas weak or absent year-classes were not. For decades, large-scale fisheries on the Great Lakes were allowed to operate because ciscoes were assumed to be short lived and to have regular recruitment. We postulate that the collapse of these fisheries was linked in part to a misunderstanding of cisco biology driven by scale-ageing error. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2008.

  7. Global models underestimate large decadal declining and rising water storage trends relative to GRACE satellite data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scanlon, Bridget R.; Zhang, Zizhan; Save, Himanshu; Sun, Alexander Y.; van Beek, Ludovicus P. H.; Wiese, David N.; Reedy, Robert C.; Longuevergne, Laurent; Döll, Petra; Bierkens, Marc F. P.

    2018-01-01

    Assessing reliability of global models is critical because of increasing reliance on these models to address past and projected future climate and human stresses on global water resources. Here, we evaluate model reliability based on a comprehensive comparison of decadal trends (2002–2014) in land water storage from seven global models (WGHM, PCR-GLOBWB, GLDAS NOAH, MOSAIC, VIC, CLM, and CLSM) to trends from three Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite solutions in 186 river basins (∼60% of global land area). Medians of modeled basin water storage trends greatly underestimate GRACE-derived large decreasing (≤−0.5 km3/y) and increasing (≥0.5 km3/y) trends. Decreasing trends from GRACE are mostly related to human use (irrigation) and climate variations, whereas increasing trends reflect climate variations. For example, in the Amazon, GRACE estimates a large increasing trend of ∼43 km3/y, whereas most models estimate decreasing trends (−71 to 11 km3/y). Land water storage trends, summed over all basins, are positive for GRACE (∼71–82 km3/y) but negative for models (−450 to −12 km3/y), contributing opposing trends to global mean sea level change. Impacts of climate forcing on decadal land water storage trends exceed those of modeled human intervention by about a factor of 2. The model-GRACE comparison highlights potential areas of future model development, particularly simulated water storage. The inability of models to capture large decadal water storage trends based on GRACE indicates that model projections of climate and human-induced water storage changes may be underestimated. PMID:29358394

  8. Low modeled ozone production suggests underestimation of precursor emissions (especially NOx in Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Oikonomakis

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available High surface ozone concentrations, which usually occur when photochemical ozone production takes place, pose a great risk to human health and vegetation. Air quality models are often used by policy makers as tools for the development of ozone mitigation strategies. However, the modeled ozone production is often not or not enough evaluated in many ozone modeling studies. The focus of this work is to evaluate the modeled ozone production in Europe indirectly, with the use of the ozone–temperature correlation for the summer of 2010 and to analyze its sensitivity to precursor emissions and meteorology by using the regional air quality model, the Comprehensive Air Quality Model with Extensions (CAMx. The results show that the model significantly underestimates the observed high afternoon surface ozone mixing ratios (≥  60 ppb by 10–20 ppb and overestimates the lower ones (<  40 ppb by 5–15 ppb, resulting in a misleading good agreement with the observations for average ozone. The model also underestimates the ozone–temperature regression slope by about a factor of 2 for most of the measurement stations. To investigate the impact of emissions, four scenarios were tested: (i increased volatile organic compound (VOC emissions by a factor of 1.5 and 2 for the anthropogenic and biogenic VOC emissions, respectively, (ii increased nitrogen oxide (NOx emissions by a factor of 2, (iii a combination of the first two scenarios and (iv increased traffic-only NOx emissions by a factor of 4. For southern, eastern, and central (except the Benelux area Europe, doubling NOx emissions seems to be the most efficient scenario to reduce the underestimation of the observed high ozone mixing ratios without significant degradation of the model performance for the lower ozone mixing ratios. The model performance for ozone–temperature correlation is also better when NOx emissions are doubled. In the Benelux area, however, the third scenario

  9. Low modeled ozone production suggests underestimation of precursor emissions (especially NOx) in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oikonomakis, Emmanouil; Aksoyoglu, Sebnem; Ciarelli, Giancarlo; Baltensperger, Urs; Prévôt, André Stephan Henry

    2018-02-01

    High surface ozone concentrations, which usually occur when photochemical ozone production takes place, pose a great risk to human health and vegetation. Air quality models are often used by policy makers as tools for the development of ozone mitigation strategies. However, the modeled ozone production is often not or not enough evaluated in many ozone modeling studies. The focus of this work is to evaluate the modeled ozone production in Europe indirectly, with the use of the ozone-temperature correlation for the summer of 2010 and to analyze its sensitivity to precursor emissions and meteorology by using the regional air quality model, the Comprehensive Air Quality Model with Extensions (CAMx). The results show that the model significantly underestimates the observed high afternoon surface ozone mixing ratios (≥ 60 ppb) by 10-20 ppb and overestimates the lower ones (degradation of the model performance for the lower ozone mixing ratios. The model performance for ozone-temperature correlation is also better when NOx emissions are doubled. In the Benelux area, however, the third scenario (where both NOx and VOC emissions are increased) leads to a better model performance. Although increasing only the traffic NOx emissions by a factor of 4 gave very similar results to the doubling of all NOx emissions, the first scenario is more consistent with the uncertainties reported by other studies than the latter, suggesting that high uncertainties in NOx emissions might originate mainly from the road-transport sector rather than from other sectors. The impact of meteorology was examined with three sensitivity tests: (i) increased surface temperature by 4 °C, (ii) reduced wind speed by 50 % and (iii) doubled wind speed. The first two scenarios led to a consistent increase in all surface ozone mixing ratios, thus improving the model performance for the high ozone values but significantly degrading it for the low ozone values, while the third scenario had exactly the

  10. Modeling microelectrode biosensors: free-flow calibration can substantially underestimate tissue concentrations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newton, Adam J H; Wall, Mark J; Richardson, Magnus J E

    2017-03-01

    Microelectrode amperometric biosensors are widely used to measure concentrations of analytes in solution and tissue including acetylcholine, adenosine, glucose, and glutamate. A great deal of experimental and modeling effort has been directed at quantifying the response of the biosensors themselves; however, the influence that the macroscopic tissue environment has on biosensor response has not been subjected to the same level of scrutiny. Here we identify an important issue in the way microelectrode biosensors are calibrated that is likely to have led to underestimations of analyte tissue concentrations. Concentration in tissue is typically determined by comparing the biosensor signal to that measured in free-flow calibration conditions. In a free-flow environment the concentration of the analyte at the outer surface of the biosensor can be considered constant. However, in tissue the analyte reaches the biosensor surface by diffusion through the extracellular space. Because the enzymes in the biosensor break down the analyte, a density gradient is set up resulting in a significantly lower concentration of analyte near the biosensor surface. This effect is compounded by the diminished volume fraction (porosity) and reduction in the diffusion coefficient due to obstructions (tortuosity) in tissue. We demonstrate this effect through modeling and experimentally verify our predictions in diffusive environments. NEW & NOTEWORTHY Microelectrode biosensors are typically calibrated in a free-flow environment where the concentrations at the biosensor surface are constant. However, when in tissue, the analyte reaches the biosensor via diffusion and so analyte breakdown by the biosensor results in a concentration gradient and consequently a lower concentration around the biosensor. This effect means that naive free-flow calibration will underestimate tissue concentration. We develop mathematical models to better quantify the discrepancy between the calibration and tissue

  11. Underestimation of boreal soil carbon stocks by mathematical soil carbon models linked to soil nutrient status

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ťupek, Boris; Ortiz, Carina A.; Hashimoto, Shoji; Stendahl, Johan; Dahlgren, Jonas; Karltun, Erik; Lehtonen, Aleksi

    2016-08-01

    Inaccurate estimate of the largest terrestrial carbon pool, soil organic carbon (SOC) stock, is the major source of uncertainty in simulating feedback of climate warming on ecosystem-atmosphere carbon dioxide exchange by process-based ecosystem and soil carbon models. Although the models need to simplify complex environmental processes of soil carbon sequestration, in a large mosaic of environments a missing key driver could lead to a modeling bias in predictions of SOC stock change.We aimed to evaluate SOC stock estimates of process-based models (Yasso07, Q, and CENTURY soil sub-model v4) against a massive Swedish forest soil inventory data set (3230 samples) organized by a recursive partitioning method into distinct soil groups with underlying SOC stock development linked to physicochemical conditions.For two-thirds of measurements all models predicted accurate SOC stock levels regardless of the detail of input data, e.g., whether they ignored or included soil properties. However, in fertile sites with high N deposition, high cation exchange capacity, or moderately increased soil water content, Yasso07 and Q models underestimated SOC stocks. In comparison to Yasso07 and Q, accounting for the site-specific soil characteristics (e. g. clay content and topsoil mineral N) by CENTURY improved SOC stock estimates for sites with high clay content, but not for sites with high N deposition.Our analysis suggested that the soils with poorly predicted SOC stocks, as characterized by the high nutrient status and well-sorted parent material, indeed have had other predominant drivers of SOC stabilization lacking in the models, presumably the mycorrhizal organic uptake and organo-mineral stabilization processes. Our results imply that the role of soil nutrient status as regulator of organic matter mineralization has to be re-evaluated, since correct SOC stocks are decisive for predicting future SOC change and soil CO2 efflux.

  12. Terrestrial biosphere models underestimate photosynthetic capacity and CO2 assimilation in the Arctic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogers, Alistair; Serbin, Shawn P; Ely, Kim S; Sloan, Victoria L; Wullschleger, Stan D

    2017-12-01

    Terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) are highly sensitive to model representation of photosynthesis, in particular the parameters maximum carboxylation rate and maximum electron transport rate at 25°C (V c,max.25 and J max.25 , respectively). Many TBMs do not include representation of Arctic plants, and those that do rely on understanding and parameterization from temperate species. We measured photosynthetic CO 2 response curves and leaf nitrogen (N) content in species representing the dominant vascular plant functional types found on the coastal tundra near Barrow, Alaska. The activation energies associated with the temperature response functions of V c,max and J max were 17% lower than commonly used values. When scaled to 25°C, V c,max.25 and J max.25 were two- to five-fold higher than the values used to parameterize current TBMs. This high photosynthetic capacity was attributable to a high leaf N content and the high fraction of N invested in Rubisco. Leaf-level modeling demonstrated that current parameterization of TBMs resulted in a two-fold underestimation of the capacity for leaf-level CO 2 assimilation in Arctic vegetation. This study highlights the poor representation of Arctic photosynthesis in TBMs, and provides the critical data necessary to improve our ability to project the response of the Arctic to global environmental change. No claim to original US Government works. New Phytologist © 2017 New Phytologist Trust.

  13. Linear-quadratic model underestimates sparing effect of small doses per fraction in rat spinal cord

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shun Wong, C.; Toronto University; Minkin, S.; Hill, R.P.; Toronto University

    1993-01-01

    The application of the linear-quadratic (LQ) model to describe iso-effective fractionation schedules for dose fraction sizes less than 2 Gy has been controversial. Experiments are described in which the effect of daily fractionated irradiation given with a wide range of fraction sizes was assessed in rat cervical spine cord. The first group of rats was given doses in 1, 2, 4, 8 and 40 fractions/day. The second group received 3 initial 'top-up'doses of 9 Gy given once daily, representing 3/4 tolerance, followed by doses in 1, 2, 10, 20, 30 and 40 fractions/day. The fractionated portion of the irradiation schedule therefore constituted only the final quarter of the tolerance dose. The endpoint of the experiments was paralysis of forelimbs secondary to white matter necrosis. Direct analysis of data from experiments with full course fractionation up to 40 fractions/day (25.0-1.98 Gy/fraction) indicated consistency with the LQ model yielding an α/β value of 2.41 Gy. Analysis of data from experiments in which the 3 'top-up' doses were followed by up to 10 fractions (10.0-1.64 Gy/fraction) gave an α/β value of 3.41 Gy. However, data from 'top-up' experiments with 20, 30 and 40 fractions (1.60-0.55 Gy/fraction) were inconsistent with LQ model and gave a very small α/β of 0.48 Gy. It is concluded that LQ model based on data from large doses/fraction underestimates the sparing effect of small doses/fraction, provided sufficient time is allowed between each fraction for repair of sublethal damage. (author). 28 refs., 5 figs., 1 tab

  14. Method for activity measurement in large packages of radioactive wastes. Is the overall activity stored inside a final repository systematically under-estimated?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rottner, B.

    2005-01-01

    The activity of a rad waste package is usually evaluated from gamma spectrometry measurements or dose rates emitted by the package, associated with transfer functions. These functions are calculated assuming that both activity and mass distributions are homogeneous. The proposed method, OPROF-STAT (patented) evaluates the error arising from this homogeneous assumption. This error has a systematic part, leading to an over or underestimation of the overall activity in a family of similar waste packages, and a stochastic part, whose mean effect on the overall activity of the family is null. The method consists in building a virtual family of packages, by numeric simulation of the filling of each package of the family. The simulated filling has a stochastic part, so that the mass and activity distributions inside a package are different from one package to another. The virtual packages are wholly known, which is not the case for the real family, and it is then possible to compute the result of a measurement, and the associated error, for each package of the virtual family. A way to fit and demonstrate the representativeness of the virtual is described. The main trends and parameters modifying the error are explored: a systematic underestimation of the activity in a large family of rad waste packages is possible. (author)

  15. Forest loss maps from regional satellite monitoring systematically underestimate deforestation in two rapidly changing parts of the Amazon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milodowski, D. T.; Mitchard, E. T. A.; Williams, M.

    2017-09-01

    Accurate, consistent reporting of changing forest area, stratified by forest type, is required for all countries under their commitments to the Paris Agreement (UNFCCC 2015 Adoption of the Paris Agreement (Paris: UNFCCC)). Such change reporting may directly impact on payments through comparisons to national Reference (Emissions) Levels under the Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD+) framework. The emergence of global, satellite-based forest monitoring systems, including Global Forest Watch (GFW) and FORMA, have great potential in aiding this endeavour. However, the accuracy of these systems has been questioned and their uncertainties are poorly constrained, both in terms of the spatial extent of forest loss and timing of change. Here, using annual time series of 5 m optical imagery at two sites in the Brazilian Amazon, we demonstrate that GFW more accurately detects forest loss than the coarser-resolution FORMA or Brazil’s national-level PRODES product, though all underestimate the rate of loss. We conclude GFW provides robust indicators of forest loss, at least for larger-scale forest change, but under-predicts losses driven by small-scale disturbances (< 2 ha), even though these are much larger than its minimum mapping unit (0.09 ha).

  16. Underestimation of Project Costs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Harry W.

    2015-01-01

    Large projects almost always exceed their budgets. Estimating cost is difficult and estimated costs are usually too low. Three different reasons are suggested: bad luck, overoptimism, and deliberate underestimation. Project management can usually point to project difficulty and complexity, technical uncertainty, stakeholder conflicts, scope changes, unforeseen events, and other not really unpredictable bad luck. Project planning is usually over-optimistic, so the likelihood and impact of bad luck is systematically underestimated. Project plans reflect optimism and hope for success in a supposedly unique new effort rather than rational expectations based on historical data. Past project problems are claimed to be irrelevant because "This time it's different." Some bad luck is inevitable and reasonable optimism is understandable, but deliberate deception must be condemned. In a competitive environment, project planners and advocates often deliberately underestimate costs to help gain project approval and funding. Project benefits, cost savings, and probability of success are exaggerated and key risks ignored. Project advocates have incentives to distort information and conceal difficulties from project approvers. One naively suggested cure is more openness, honesty, and group adherence to shared overall goals. A more realistic alternative is threatening overrun projects with cancellation. Neither approach seems to solve the problem. A better method to avoid the delusions of over-optimism and the deceptions of biased advocacy is to base the project cost estimate on the actual costs of a large group of similar projects. Over optimism and deception can continue beyond the planning phase and into project execution. Hard milestones based on verified tests and demonstrations can provide a reality check.

  17. Underestimating belief in climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jost, John T.

    2018-03-01

    People are influenced by second-order beliefs — beliefs about the beliefs of others. New research finds that citizens in the US and China systematically underestimate popular support for taking action to curb climate change. Fortunately, they seem willing and able to correct their misperceptions.

  18. Sampling in Atypical Endometrial Hyperplasia: Which Method Results in the Lowest Underestimation of Endometrial Cancer? A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bourdel, Nicolas; Chauvet, Pauline; Tognazza, Enrica; Pereira, Bruno; Botchorishvili, Revaz; Canis, Michel

    2016-01-01

    Our objective was to identify the most accurate method of endometrial sampling for the diagnosis of complex atypical hyperplasia (CAH), and the related risk of underestimation of endometrial cancer. We conducted a systematic literature search in PubMed and EMBASE (January 1999-September 2013) to identify all registered articles on this subject. Studies were selected with a 2-step method. First, titles and abstracts were analyzed by 2 reviewers, and 69 relevant articles were selected for full reading. Then, the full articles were evaluated to determine whether full inclusion criteria were met. We selected 27 studies, taking into consideration the comparison between histology of endometrial hyperplasia obtained by diagnostic tests of interest (uterine curettage, hysteroscopically guided biopsy, or hysteroscopic endometrial resection) and subsequent results of hysterectomy. Analysis of the studies reviewed focused on 1106 patients with a preoperative diagnosis of atypical endometrial hyperplasia. The mean risk of finding endometrial cancer at hysterectomy after atypical endometrial hyperplasia diagnosed by uterine curettage was 32.7% (95% confidence interval [CI], 26.2-39.9), with a risk of 45.3% (95% CI, 32.8-58.5) after hysteroscopically guided biopsy and 5.8% (95% CI, 0.8-31.7) after hysteroscopic resection. In total, the risk of underestimation of endometrial cancer reaches a very high rate in patients with CAH using the classic method of evaluation (i.e., uterine curettage or hysteroscopically guided biopsy). This rate of underdiagnosed endometrial cancer leads to the risk of inappropriate surgical procedures (31.7% of tubal conservation in the data available and no abdominal exploration in 24.6% of the cases). Hysteroscopic resection seems to reduce the risk of underdiagnosed endometrial cancer. Copyright © 2016 AAGL. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Underestimation of nuclear fuel burnup – theory, demonstration and solution in numerical models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gajda Paweł

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Monte Carlo methodology provides reference statistical solution of neutron transport criticality problems of nuclear systems. Estimated reaction rates can be applied as an input to Bateman equations that govern isotopic evolution of reactor materials. Because statistical solution of Boltzmann equation is computationally expensive, it is in practice applied to time steps of limited length. In this paper we show that simple staircase step model leads to underprediction of numerical fuel burnup (Fissions per Initial Metal Atom – FIMA. Theoretical considerations indicates that this error is inversely proportional to the length of the time step and origins from the variation of heating per source neutron. The bias can be diminished by application of predictor-corrector step model. A set of burnup simulations with various step length and coupling schemes has been performed. SERPENT code version 1.17 has been applied to the model of a typical fuel assembly from Pressurized Water Reactor. In reference case FIMA reaches 6.24% that is equivalent to about 60 GWD/tHM of industrial burnup. The discrepancies up to 1% have been observed depending on time step model and theoretical predictions are consistent with numerical results. Conclusions presented in this paper are important for research and development concerning nuclear fuel cycle also in the context of Gen4 systems.

  20. Underestimation of soil carbon stocks by Yasso07, Q, and CENTURY models in boreal forest linked to overlooking site fertility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ťupek, Boris; Ortiz, Carina; Hashimoto, Shoji; Stendahl, Johan; Dahlgren, Jonas; Karltun, Erik; Lehtonen, Aleksi

    2016-04-01

    The soil organic carbon stock (SOC) changes estimated by the most process based soil carbon models (e.g. Yasso07, Q and CENTURY), needed for reporting of changes in soil carbon amounts for the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and for mitigation of anthropogenic CO2 emissions by soil carbon management, can be biased if in a large mosaic of environments the models are missing a key factor driving SOC sequestration. To our knowledge soil nutrient status as a missing driver of these models was not tested in previous studies. Although, it's known that models fail to reconstruct the spatial variation and that soil nutrient status drives the ecosystem carbon use efficiency and soil carbon sequestration. We evaluated SOC stock estimates of Yasso07, Q and CENTURY process based models against the field data from Swedish Forest Soil National Inventories (3230 samples) organized by recursive partitioning method (RPART) into distinct soil groups with underlying SOC stock development linked to physicochemical conditions. These models worked for most soils with approximately average SOC stocks, but could not reproduce higher measured SOC stocks in our application. The Yasso07 and Q models that used only climate and litterfall input data and ignored soil properties generally agreed with two third of measurements. However, in comparison with measurements grouped according to the gradient of soil nutrient status we found that the models underestimated for the Swedish boreal forest soils with higher site fertility. Accounting for soil texture (clay, silt, and sand content) and structure (bulk density) in CENTURY model showed no improvement on carbon stock estimates, as CENTURY deviated in similar manner. We highlighted the mechanisms why models deviate from the measurements and the ways of considering soil nutrient status in further model development. Our analysis suggested that the models indeed lack other predominat drivers of SOC stabilization

  1. Systematic Digital Forensic Investigation Model

    OpenAIRE

    Systematic Digital Forensic Investigation Model

    2011-01-01

    Law practitioners are in an uninterrupted battle with criminals in the application of digital/computertechnologies, and require the development of a proper methodology to systematically searchdigital devices for significant evidence. Computer fraud and digital crimes are growing day by dayand unfortunately less than two percent of the reported cases result in confidence. This paperexplores the development of the digital forensics process model, compares digital forensicmethodologies, and fina...

  2. Development and evaluation of a prediction model for underestimated invasive breast cancer in women with ductal carcinoma in situ at stereotactic large core needle biopsy.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suzanne C E Diepstraten

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: We aimed to develop a multivariable model for prediction of underestimated invasiveness in women with ductal carcinoma in situ at stereotactic large core needle biopsy, that can be used to select patients for sentinel node biopsy at primary surgery. METHODS: From the literature, we selected potential preoperative predictors of underestimated invasive breast cancer. Data of patients with nonpalpable breast lesions who were diagnosed with ductal carcinoma in situ at stereotactic large core needle biopsy, drawn from the prospective COBRA (Core Biopsy after RAdiological localization and COBRA2000 cohort studies, were used to fit the multivariable model and assess its overall performance, discrimination, and calibration. RESULTS: 348 women with large core needle biopsy-proven ductal carcinoma in situ were available for analysis. In 100 (28.7% patients invasive carcinoma was found at subsequent surgery. Nine predictors were included in the model. In the multivariable analysis, the predictors with the strongest association were lesion size (OR 1.12 per cm, 95% CI 0.98-1.28, number of cores retrieved at biopsy (OR per core 0.87, 95% CI 0.75-1.01, presence of lobular cancerization (OR 5.29, 95% CI 1.25-26.77, and microinvasion (OR 3.75, 95% CI 1.42-9.87. The overall performance of the multivariable model was poor with an explained variation of 9% (Nagelkerke's R(2, mediocre discrimination with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.66 (95% confidence interval 0.58-0.73, and fairly good calibration. CONCLUSION: The evaluation of our multivariable prediction model in a large, clinically representative study population proves that routine clinical and pathological variables are not suitable to select patients with large core needle biopsy-proven ductal carcinoma in situ for sentinel node biopsy during primary surgery.

  3. A Systematic Evaluation of Ultrasound-based Fetal Weight Estimation Models on Indian Population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sujitkumar S. Hiwale

    2017-12-01

    Conclusion: We found that the existing fetal weight estimation models have high systematic and random errors on Indian population, with a general tendency of overestimation of fetal weight in the LBW category and underestimation in the HBW category. We also observed that these models have a limited ability to predict babies at a risk of either low or high birth weight. It is recommended that the clinicians should consider all these factors, while interpreting estimated weight given by the existing models.

  4. Correcting underestimation of optimal fracture length by modeling proppant conductivity variations in hydraulically fractured gas/condensate reservoirs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Akram, A.H.; Samad, A. [Society of Petroleum Engineers, Richardson, TX (United States)]|[Schlumberger, Houston, TX (United States)

    2006-07-01

    A study was conducted in which a newly developed numerical simulator was used to forecast the productivity of a hydraulically fractured well in a retrograde gas-condensate sandstone reservoir. The effect of condensate dropout was modeled in both the reservoir and the proppant pack. The type of proppant and the stress applied to it are among the factors that determine proppant conductivity in a single-phase flow. Other factors include the high velocity of gas and the presence of liquid in the proppant pack. It was concluded that apparent proppant permeability in a gas condensate reservoir varies along the length of the hydraulic fracture and depends on the distance from the wellbore. It will increase towards the tip of the fracture where liquid ratio and velocity are lower. Apparent proppant permeability also changes with time. Forecasting is most accurate when these conditions are considered in the simulation. There are 2 problems associated with the use of a constant proppant permeability in a gas condensate reservoir. The first relates to the fact that it is impossible to obtain a correct single number that will mimic the drawdown of the real fracture at a particular rate without going through the process of determining the proppant permeability profile in a numerical simulator. The second problem relates to the fact that constant proppant permeability yields an optimal fracture length that is too short. Analytical modeling does not account for these complexities. It was determined that the only way to accurately simulate the behaviour of a hydraulic fracture in a high rate well, is by advanced numerical modeling that considers varying apparent proppant permeability in terms of time and distance along the fracture length. 10 refs., 2 tabs., 16 figs., 1 appendix.

  5. SU-F-T-132: Variable RBE Models Predict Possible Underestimation of Vaginal Dose for Anal Cancer Patients Treated Using Single-Field Proton Treatments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McNamara, A; Underwood, T; Wo, J; Paganetti, H [Massachusetts General Hospital & Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA (United States)

    2016-06-15

    Purpose: Anal cancer patients treated using a posterior proton beam may be at risk of vaginal wall injury due to the increased linear energy transfer (LET) and relative biological effectiveness (RBE) at the beam distal edge. We investigate the vaginal dose received. Methods: Five patients treated for anal cancer with proton pencil beam scanning were considered, all treated to a prescription dose of 54 Gy(RBE) over 28–30 fractions. Dose and LET distributions were calculated using the Monte Carlo simulation toolkit TOPAS. In addition to the standard assumption of a fixed RBE of 1.1, variable RBE was considered via the application of published models. Dose volume histograms (DVHs) were extracted for the planning treatment volume (PTV) and vagina, the latter being used to calculate the vaginal normal tissue complication probability (NTCP). Results: Compared to the assumption of a fixed RBE of 1.1, the variable RBE model predicts a dose increase of approximately 3.3 ± 1.7 Gy at the end of beam range. NTCP parameters for the vagina are incomplete in the current literature, however, inferring value ranges from the existing data we use D{sub 50} = 50 Gy and LKB model parameters a=1–2 and m=0.2–0.4. We estimate the NTCP for the vagina to be 37–48% and 42–47% for the fixed and variable RBE cases, respectively. Additionally, a difference in the dose distribution was observed between the analytical calculation and Monte Carlo methods. We find that the target dose is overestimated on average by approximately 1–2%. Conclusion: For patients treated with posterior beams, the vaginal wall may coincide with the distal end of the proton beam and may receive a substantial increase in dose if variable RBE models are applied compared to using the current clinical standard of RBE equal to 1.1. This could potentially lead to underestimating toxicities when treating with protons.

  6. A Bayesian model to correct underestimated 3-D wind speeds from sonic anemometers increases turbulent components of the surface energy balance

    Science.gov (United States)

    John M. Frank; William J. Massman; Brent E. Ewers

    2016-01-01

    Sonic anemometers are the principal instruments in micrometeorological studies of turbulence and ecosystem fluxes. Common designs underestimate vertical wind measurements because they lack a correction for transducer shadowing, with no consensus on a suitable correction. We reanalyze a subset of data collected during field experiments in 2011 and 2013 featuring two or...

  7. Some sources of the underestimation of evaluated cross section uncertainties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Badikov, S.A.; Gai, E.V.

    2003-01-01

    The problem of the underestimation of evaluated cross-section uncertainties is addressed. Two basic sources of the underestimation of evaluated cross-section uncertainties - a) inconsistency between declared and observable experimental uncertainties and b) inadequacy between applied statistical models and processed experimental data - are considered. Both the sources of the underestimation are mainly a consequence of existence of the uncertainties unrecognized by experimenters. A model of a 'constant shift' is proposed for taking unrecognised experimental uncertainties into account. The model is applied for statistical analysis of the 238 U(n,f)/ 235 U(n,f) reaction cross-section ratio measurements. It is demonstrated that multiplication by sqrt(χ 2 ) as instrument for correction of underestimated evaluated cross-section uncertainties fails in case of correlated measurements. It is shown that arbitrary assignment of uncertainties and correlation in a simple least squares fit of two correlated measurements of unknown mean leads to physically incorrect evaluated results. (author)

  8. A SYSTEMATIC STUDY OF SOFTWARE QUALITY MODELS

    OpenAIRE

    Dr.Vilas. M. Thakare; Ashwin B. Tomar

    2011-01-01

    This paper aims to provide a basis for software quality model research, through a systematic study ofpapers. It identifies nearly seventy software quality research papers from journals and classifies paper asper research topic, estimation approach, study context and data set. The paper results combined withother knowledge provides support for recommendations in future software quality model research, toincrease the area of search for relevant studies, carefully select the papers within a set ...

  9. Systematic modelling and simulation of refrigeration systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Bjarne D.; Jakobsen, Arne

    1998-01-01

    The task of developing a simulation model of a refrigeration system can be very difficult and time consuming. In order for this process to be effective, a systematic method for developing the system model is required. This method should aim at guiding the developer to clarify the purpose...... of the simulation, to select appropriate component models and to set up the equations in a well-arranged way. In this paper the outline of such a method is proposed and examples showing the use of this method for simulation of refrigeration systems are given....

  10. Automated Volumetric Mammographic Breast Density Measurements May Underestimate Percent Breast Density for High-density Breasts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rahbar, K.; Gubern Merida, A.; Patrie, J.T.; Harvey, J.A.

    2017-01-01

    RATIONALE AND OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to evaluate discrepancy in breast composition measurements obtained from mammograms using two commercially available software methods for systematic trends in overestimation or underestimation compared to magnetic resonance-derived

  11. Model validation: a systemic and systematic approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sheng, G.; Elzas, M.S.; Cronhjort, B.T.

    1993-01-01

    The term 'validation' is used ubiquitously in association with the modelling activities of numerous disciplines including social, political natural, physical sciences, and engineering. There is however, a wide range of definitions which give rise to very different interpretations of what activities the process involves. Analyses of results from the present large international effort in modelling radioactive waste disposal systems illustrate the urgent need to develop a common approach to model validation. Some possible explanations are offered to account for the present state of affairs. The methodology developed treats model validation and code verification in a systematic fashion. In fact, this approach may be regarded as a comprehensive framework to assess the adequacy of any simulation study. (author)

  12. Thermal sensation models: a systematic comparison.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koelblen, B; Psikuta, A; Bogdan, A; Annaheim, S; Rossi, R M

    2017-05-01

    Thermal sensation models, capable of predicting human's perception of thermal surroundings, are commonly used to assess given indoor conditions. These models differ in many aspects, such as the number and type of input conditions, the range of conditions in which the models can be applied, and the complexity of equations. Moreover, the models are associated with various thermal sensation scales. In this study, a systematic comparison of seven existing thermal sensation models has been performed with regard to exposures including various air temperatures, clothing thermal insulation, and metabolic rate values after a careful investigation of the models' range of applicability. Thermo-physiological data needed as input for some of the models were obtained from a mathematical model for human physiological responses. The comparison showed differences between models' predictions for the analyzed conditions, mostly higher than typical intersubject differences in votes. Therefore, it can be concluded that the choice of model strongly influences the assessment of indoor spaces. The issue of comparing different thermal sensation scales has also been discussed. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  13. Systematic model building with flavor symmetries

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Plentinger, Florian

    2009-12-19

    The observation of neutrino masses and lepton mixing has highlighted the incompleteness of the Standard Model of particle physics. In conjunction with this discovery, new questions arise: why are the neutrino masses so small, which form has their mass hierarchy, why is the mixing in the quark and lepton sectors so different or what is the structure of the Higgs sector. In order to address these issues and to predict future experimental results, different approaches are considered. One particularly interesting possibility, are Grand Unified Theories such as SU(5) or SO(10). GUTs are vertical symmetries since they unify the SM particles into multiplets and usually predict new particles which can naturally explain the smallness of the neutrino masses via the seesaw mechanism. On the other hand, also horizontal symmetries, i.e., flavor symmetries, acting on the generation space of the SM particles, are promising. They can serve as an explanation for the quark and lepton mass hierarchies as well as for the different mixings in the quark and lepton sectors. In addition, flavor symmetries are significantly involved in the Higgs sector and predict certain forms of mass matrices. This high predictivity makes GUTs and flavor symmetries interesting for both, theorists and experimentalists. These extensions of the SM can be also combined with theories such as supersymmetry or extra dimensions. In addition, they usually have implications on the observed matter-antimatter asymmetry of the universe or can provide a dark matter candidate. In general, they also predict the lepton flavor violating rare decays {mu} {yields} e{gamma}, {tau} {yields} {mu}{gamma}, and {tau} {yields} e{gamma} which are strongly bounded by experiments but might be observed in the future. In this thesis, we combine all of these approaches, i.e., GUTs, the seesaw mechanism and flavor symmetries. Moreover, our request is to develop and perform a systematic model building approach with flavor symmetries and

  14. Systematic model building with flavor symmetries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Plentinger, Florian

    2009-01-01

    The observation of neutrino masses and lepton mixing has highlighted the incompleteness of the Standard Model of particle physics. In conjunction with this discovery, new questions arise: why are the neutrino masses so small, which form has their mass hierarchy, why is the mixing in the quark and lepton sectors so different or what is the structure of the Higgs sector. In order to address these issues and to predict future experimental results, different approaches are considered. One particularly interesting possibility, are Grand Unified Theories such as SU(5) or SO(10). GUTs are vertical symmetries since they unify the SM particles into multiplets and usually predict new particles which can naturally explain the smallness of the neutrino masses via the seesaw mechanism. On the other hand, also horizontal symmetries, i.e., flavor symmetries, acting on the generation space of the SM particles, are promising. They can serve as an explanation for the quark and lepton mass hierarchies as well as for the different mixings in the quark and lepton sectors. In addition, flavor symmetries are significantly involved in the Higgs sector and predict certain forms of mass matrices. This high predictivity makes GUTs and flavor symmetries interesting for both, theorists and experimentalists. These extensions of the SM can be also combined with theories such as supersymmetry or extra dimensions. In addition, they usually have implications on the observed matter-antimatter asymmetry of the universe or can provide a dark matter candidate. In general, they also predict the lepton flavor violating rare decays μ → eγ, τ → μγ, and τ → eγ which are strongly bounded by experiments but might be observed in the future. In this thesis, we combine all of these approaches, i.e., GUTs, the seesaw mechanism and flavor symmetries. Moreover, our request is to develop and perform a systematic model building approach with flavor symmetries and to search for phenomenological

  15. Systematic simulations of modified gravity: chameleon models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brax, Philippe; Davis, Anne-Christine; Li, Baojiu; Winther, Hans A.; Zhao, Gong-Bo

    2013-01-01

    In this work we systematically study the linear and nonlinear structure formation in chameleon theories of modified gravity, using a generic parameterisation which describes a large class of models using only 4 parameters. For this we have modified the N-body simulation code ecosmog to perform a total of 65 simulations for different models and parameter values, including the default ΛCDM. These simulations enable us to explore a significant portion of the parameter space. We have studied the effects of modified gravity on the matter power spectrum and mass function, and found a rich and interesting phenomenology where the difference with the ΛCDM paradigm cannot be reproduced by a linear analysis even on scales as large as k ∼ 0.05 hMpc −1 , since the latter incorrectly assumes that the modification of gravity depends only on the background matter density. Our results show that the chameleon screening mechanism is significantly more efficient than other mechanisms such as the dilaton and symmetron, especially in high-density regions and at early times, and can serve as a guidance to determine the parts of the chameleon parameter space which are cosmologically interesting and thus merit further studies in the future

  16. Systematic comparison of model polymer nanocomposite mechanics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiao, Senbo; Peter, Christine; Kremer, Kurt

    2016-09-13

    Polymer nanocomposites render a range of outstanding materials from natural products such as silk, sea shells and bones, to synthesized nanoclay or carbon nanotube reinforced polymer systems. In contrast to the fast expanding interest in this type of material, the fundamental mechanisms of their mixing, phase behavior and reinforcement, especially for higher nanoparticle content as relevant for bio-inorganic composites, are still not fully understood. Although polymer nanocomposites exhibit diverse morphologies, qualitatively their mechanical properties are believed to be governed by a few parameters, namely their internal polymer network topology, nanoparticle volume fraction, particle surface properties and so on. Relating material mechanics to such elementary parameters is the purpose of this work. By taking a coarse-grained molecular modeling approach, we study an range of different polymer nanocomposites. We vary polymer nanoparticle connectivity, surface geometry and volume fraction to systematically study rheological/mechanical properties. Our models cover different materials, and reproduce key characteristics of real nanocomposites, such as phase separation, mechanical reinforcement. The results shed light on establishing elementary structure, property and function relationship of polymer nanocomposites.

  17. Systematic simulations of modified gravity: chameleon models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brax, Philippe [Institut de Physique Theorique, CEA, IPhT, CNRS, URA 2306, F-91191Gif/Yvette Cedex (France); Davis, Anne-Christine [DAMTP, Centre for Mathematical Sciences, University of Cambridge, Wilberforce Road, Cambridge CB3 0WA (United Kingdom); Li, Baojiu [Institute for Computational Cosmology, Department of Physics, Durham University, Durham DH1 3LE (United Kingdom); Winther, Hans A. [Institute of Theoretical Astrophysics, University of Oslo, 0315 Oslo (Norway); Zhao, Gong-Bo, E-mail: philippe.brax@cea.fr, E-mail: a.c.davis@damtp.cam.ac.uk, E-mail: baojiu.li@durham.ac.uk, E-mail: h.a.winther@astro.uio.no, E-mail: gong-bo.zhao@port.ac.uk [Institute of Cosmology and Gravitation, University of Portsmouth, Portsmouth PO1 3FX (United Kingdom)

    2013-04-01

    In this work we systematically study the linear and nonlinear structure formation in chameleon theories of modified gravity, using a generic parameterisation which describes a large class of models using only 4 parameters. For this we have modified the N-body simulation code ecosmog to perform a total of 65 simulations for different models and parameter values, including the default ΛCDM. These simulations enable us to explore a significant portion of the parameter space. We have studied the effects of modified gravity on the matter power spectrum and mass function, and found a rich and interesting phenomenology where the difference with the ΛCDM paradigm cannot be reproduced by a linear analysis even on scales as large as k ∼ 0.05 hMpc{sup −1}, since the latter incorrectly assumes that the modification of gravity depends only on the background matter density. Our results show that the chameleon screening mechanism is significantly more efficient than other mechanisms such as the dilaton and symmetron, especially in high-density regions and at early times, and can serve as a guidance to determine the parts of the chameleon parameter space which are cosmologically interesting and thus merit further studies in the future.

  18. Underestimation of risk due to exposure misclassification

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grandjean, Philippe; Budtz-Jørgensen, Esben; Keiding, Niels

    2004-01-01

    Exposure misclassification constitutes a major obstacle when developing dose-response relationships for risk assessment. A non-differentional error results in underestimation of the risk. If the degree of misclassification is known, adjustment may be achieved by sensitivity analysis. The purpose...

  19. Systematic identification of crystallization kinetics within a generic modelling framework

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Abdul Samad, Noor Asma Fazli Bin; Meisler, Kresten Troelstrup; Gernaey, Krist

    2012-01-01

    A systematic development of constitutive models within a generic modelling framework has been developed for use in design, analysis and simulation of crystallization operations. The framework contains a tool for model identification connected with a generic crystallizer modelling tool-box, a tool...

  20. Conceptual Model for Systematic Construction Waste Management

    OpenAIRE

    Abd Rahim Mohd Hilmi Izwan; Kasim Narimah

    2017-01-01

    Development of the construction industry generated construction waste which can contribute towards environmental issues. Weaknesses of compliance in construction waste management especially in construction site have also contributed to the big issues of waste generated in landfills and illegal dumping area. This gives sign that construction projects are needed a systematic construction waste management. To date, a comprehensive criteria of construction waste management, particularly for const...

  1. Poverty Underestimation in Rural India- A Critique

    OpenAIRE

    Sivakumar, Marimuthu; Sarvalingam, A

    2010-01-01

    When ever the Planning Commission of India releases the poverty data, that data is being criticised by experts and economists. The main criticism is underestimation of poverty especially in rural India by the Planning Commission. This paper focuses on that criticism and compares the Indian Planning Commission’s 2004-05 rural poverty data with the India’s 2400 kcal poverty norms, World Bank’s US $1.08 poverty concept and Asian Development Bank’s US $1.35 poverty concept.

  2. Bayesian Network Models in Cyber Security: A Systematic Review

    OpenAIRE

    Chockalingam, S.; Pieters, W.; Herdeiro Teixeira, A.M.; van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M.; Lipmaa, Helger; Mitrokotsa, Aikaterini; Matulevicius, Raimundas

    2017-01-01

    Bayesian Networks (BNs) are an increasingly popular modelling technique in cyber security especially due to their capability to overcome data limitations. This is also instantiated by the growth of BN models development in cyber security. However, a comprehensive comparison and analysis of these models is missing. In this paper, we conduct a systematic review of the scientific literature and identify 17 standard BN models in cyber security. We analyse these models based on 9 different criteri...

  3. Underestimation of Severity of Previous Whiplash Injuries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naqui, SZH; Lovell, SJ; Lovell, ME

    2008-01-01

    INTRODUCTION We noted a report that more significant symptoms may be expressed after second whiplash injuries by a suggested cumulative effect, including degeneration. We wondered if patients were underestimating the severity of their earlier injury. PATIENTS AND METHODS We studied recent medicolegal reports, to assess subjects with a second whiplash injury. They had been asked whether their earlier injury was worse, the same or lesser in severity. RESULTS From the study cohort, 101 patients (87%) felt that they had fully recovered from their first injury and 15 (13%) had not. Seventy-six subjects considered their first injury of lesser severity, 24 worse and 16 the same. Of the 24 that felt the violence of their first accident was worse, only 8 had worse symptoms, and 16 felt their symptoms were mainly the same or less than their symptoms from their second injury. Statistical analysis of the data revealed that the proportion of those claiming a difference who said the previous injury was lesser was 76% (95% CI 66–84%). The observed proportion with a lesser injury was considerably higher than the 50% anticipated. CONCLUSIONS We feel that subjects may underestimate the severity of an earlier injury and associated symptoms. Reasons for this may include secondary gain rather than any proposed cumulative effect. PMID:18201501

  4. Systematic experimental based modeling of a rotary piezoelectric ultrasonic motor

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mojallali, Hamed; Amini, Rouzbeh; Izadi-Zamanabadi, Roozbeh

    2007-01-01

    In this paper, a new method for equivalent circuit modeling of a traveling wave ultrasonic motor is presented. The free stator of the motor is modeled by an equivalent circuit containing complex circuit elements. A systematic approach for identifying the elements of the equivalent circuit is sugg...

  5. A Unified Framework for Systematic Model Improvement

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristensen, Niels Rode; Madsen, Henrik; Jørgensen, Sten Bay

    2003-01-01

    A unified framework for improving the quality of continuous time models of dynamic systems based on experimental data is presented. The framework is based on an interplay between stochastic differential equation (SDE) modelling, statistical tests and multivariate nonparametric regression. This co......-batch bioreactor, where it is illustrated how an incorrectly modelled biomass growth rate can be pinpointed and an estimate provided of the functional relation needed to properly describe it....

  6. Fishermen´s underestimation of risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knudsen, Fabienne; Grøn, Sisse

    2009-01-01

    to stress the positive potentiale of risk. This can be explained by several, interrelated factors such as the nature of fishing, it-self a risk-based enterprise; a life-form promoting independency and identification with the enterprise's pecuniary priorities; working conditions upholding a feeling......  Fishermen's underestimation of risk   Background: In order to understand the effect of footwear and flooring on slips, trips and falls, 1st author visited 4 fishing boats.  An important spinoff of the study was to get an in situ insight in the way, fishermen perceive risk.   Objectives......: The presentation will analyse fishermen's risk perception, its causes and consequences.   Methods: The first author participated in 3 voyages at sea on fishing vessels (from 1 to 10 days each and from 2 to 4 crewmembers) where  interviews and participant observation was undertaken. A 4th fishing boat was visited...

  7. Systematic parameter inference in stochastic mesoscopic modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lei, Huan; Yang, Xiu [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA 99352 (United States); Li, Zhen [Division of Applied Mathematics, Brown University, Providence, RI 02912 (United States); Karniadakis, George Em, E-mail: george_karniadakis@brown.edu [Division of Applied Mathematics, Brown University, Providence, RI 02912 (United States)

    2017-02-01

    We propose a method to efficiently determine the optimal coarse-grained force field in mesoscopic stochastic simulations of Newtonian fluid and polymer melt systems modeled by dissipative particle dynamics (DPD) and energy conserving dissipative particle dynamics (eDPD). The response surfaces of various target properties (viscosity, diffusivity, pressure, etc.) with respect to model parameters are constructed based on the generalized polynomial chaos (gPC) expansion using simulation results on sampling points (e.g., individual parameter sets). To alleviate the computational cost to evaluate the target properties, we employ the compressive sensing method to compute the coefficients of the dominant gPC terms given the prior knowledge that the coefficients are “sparse”. The proposed method shows comparable accuracy with the standard probabilistic collocation method (PCM) while it imposes a much weaker restriction on the number of the simulation samples especially for systems with high dimensional parametric space. Fully access to the response surfaces within the confidence range enables us to infer the optimal force parameters given the desirable values of target properties at the macroscopic scale. Moreover, it enables us to investigate the intrinsic relationship between the model parameters, identify possible degeneracies in the parameter space, and optimize the model by eliminating model redundancies. The proposed method provides an efficient alternative approach for constructing mesoscopic models by inferring model parameters to recover target properties of the physics systems (e.g., from experimental measurements), where those force field parameters and formulation cannot be derived from the microscopic level in a straight forward way.

  8. A Systematic Identification Method for Thermodynamic Property Modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ana Perederic, Olivia; Cunico, Larissa; Sarup, Bent

    2017-01-01

    In this work, a systematic identification method for thermodynamic property modelling is proposed. The aim of the method is to improve the quality of phase equilibria prediction by group contribution based property prediction models. The method is applied to lipid systems where the Original UNIFAC...... model is used. Using the proposed method for estimating the interaction parameters using only VLE data, a better phase equilibria prediction for both VLE and SLE was obtained. The results were validated and compared with the original model performance...

  9. Hospitality and Tourism Online Review Research: A Systematic Analysis and Heuristic-Systematic Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sunyoung Hlee

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available With tremendous growth and potential of online consumer reviews, online reviews of hospitality and tourism are now playing a significant role in consumer attitude and buying behaviors. This study reviewed and analyzed hospitality and tourism related articles published in academic journals. The systematic approach was used to analyze 55 research articles between January 2008 and December 2017. This study presented a brief synthesis of research by investigating content-related characteristics of hospitality and tourism online reviews (HTORs in different market segments. Two research questions were addressed. Building upon our literature analysis, we used the heuristic-systematic model (HSM to summarize and classify the characteristics affecting consumer perception in previous HTOR studies. We believe that the framework helps researchers to identify the research topic in extended HTORs literature and to point out possible direction for future studies.

  10. The underestimated potential of solar energy to mitigate climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Creutzig, Felix; Agoston, Peter; Goldschmidt, Jan Christoph; Luderer, Gunnar; Nemet, Gregory; Pietzcker, Robert C.

    2017-09-01

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's fifth assessment report emphasizes the importance of bioenergy and carbon capture and storage for achieving climate goals, but it does not identify solar energy as a strategically important technology option. That is surprising given the strong growth, large resource, and low environmental footprint of photovoltaics (PV). Here we explore how models have consistently underestimated PV deployment and identify the reasons for underlying bias in models. Our analysis reveals that rapid technological learning and technology-specific policy support were crucial to PV deployment in the past, but that future success will depend on adequate financing instruments and the management of system integration. We propose that with coordinated advances in multiple components of the energy system, PV could supply 30-50% of electricity in competitive markets.

  11. Business model framework applications in health care: A systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fredriksson, Jens Jacob; Mazzocato, Pamela; Muhammed, Rafiq; Savage, Carl

    2017-11-01

    It has proven to be a challenge for health care organizations to achieve the Triple Aim. In the business literature, business model frameworks have been used to understand how organizations are aligned to achieve their goals. We conducted a systematic literature review with an explanatory synthesis approach to understand how business model frameworks have been applied in health care. We found a large increase in applications of business model frameworks during the last decade. E-health was the most common context of application. We identified six applications of business model frameworks: business model description, financial assessment, classification based on pre-defined typologies, business model analysis, development, and evaluation. Our synthesis suggests that the choice of business model framework and constituent elements should be informed by the intent and context of application. We see a need for harmonization in the choice of elements in order to increase generalizability, simplify application, and help organizations realize the Triple Aim.

  12. Simulation models in population breast cancer screening: A systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koleva-Kolarova, Rositsa G; Zhan, Zhuozhao; Greuter, Marcel J W; Feenstra, Talitha L; De Bock, Geertruida H

    2015-08-01

    The aim of this review was to critically evaluate published simulation models for breast cancer screening of the general population and provide a direction for future modeling. A systematic literature search was performed to identify simulation models with more than one application. A framework for qualitative assessment which incorporated model type; input parameters; modeling approach, transparency of input data sources/assumptions, sensitivity analyses and risk of bias; validation, and outcomes was developed. Predicted mortality reduction (MR) and cost-effectiveness (CE) were compared to estimates from meta-analyses of randomized control trials (RCTs) and acceptability thresholds. Seven original simulation models were distinguished, all sharing common input parameters. The modeling approach was based on tumor progression (except one model) with internal and cross validation of the resulting models, but without any external validation. Differences in lead times for invasive or non-invasive tumors, and the option for cancers not to progress were not explicitly modeled. The models tended to overestimate the MR (11-24%) due to screening as compared to optimal RCTs 10% (95% CI - 2-21%) MR. Only recently, potential harms due to regular breast cancer screening were reported. Most scenarios resulted in acceptable cost-effectiveness estimates given current thresholds. The selected models have been repeatedly applied in various settings to inform decision making and the critical analysis revealed high risk of bias in their outcomes. Given the importance of the models, there is a need for externally validated models which use systematical evidence for input data to allow for more critical evaluation of breast cancer screening. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. ANALYSIS AND CORRECTION OF SYSTEMATIC HEIGHT MODEL ERRORS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Jacobsen

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The geometry of digital height models (DHM determined with optical satellite stereo combinations depends upon the image orientation, influenced by the satellite camera, the system calibration and attitude registration. As standard these days the image orientation is available in form of rational polynomial coefficients (RPC. Usually a bias correction of the RPC based on ground control points is required. In most cases the bias correction requires affine transformation, sometimes only shifts, in image or object space. For some satellites and some cases, as caused by small base length, such an image orientation does not lead to the possible accuracy of height models. As reported e.g. by Yong-hua et al. 2015 and Zhang et al. 2015, especially the Chinese stereo satellite ZiYuan-3 (ZY-3 has a limited calibration accuracy and just an attitude recording of 4 Hz which may not be satisfying. Zhang et al. 2015 tried to improve the attitude based on the color sensor bands of ZY-3, but the color images are not always available as also detailed satellite orientation information. There is a tendency of systematic deformation at a Pléiades tri-stereo combination with small base length. The small base length enlarges small systematic errors to object space. But also in some other satellite stereo combinations systematic height model errors have been detected. The largest influence is the not satisfying leveling of height models, but also low frequency height deformations can be seen. A tilt of the DHM by theory can be eliminated by ground control points (GCP, but often the GCP accuracy and distribution is not optimal, not allowing a correct leveling of the height model. In addition a model deformation at GCP locations may lead to not optimal DHM leveling. Supported by reference height models better accuracy has been reached. As reference height model the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM digital surface model (DSM or the new AW3D30 DSM, based on ALOS

  14. Underestimating Costs in Public Works Projects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Flyvbjerg, Bent; Holm, Mette K. Skamris; Buhl, Søren L.

    2002-01-01

    This article presents results from the first statistically significant study of cost escalation in transportation infrastructure projects. Based on a sample of 258 transportation infrastructure projects worth $90 billion (U.S.), it is found with overwhelming statistical significance that the cost...... honest numbers should not trust the cost estimates and cost-benefit analyses produced by project promoters and their analysts. Independent estimates and analyses are needed as are institutional checks and balances to curb deception.......This article presents results from the first statistically significant study of cost escalation in transportation infrastructure projects. Based on a sample of 258 transportation infrastructure projects worth $90 billion (U.S.), it is found with overwhelming statistical significance that the cost...... estimates used to decide whether important infrastructure should be built are highly and systematically misleading. The result is continuous cost escalation of billions of dollars. The sample used in the study is the largest of its kind, allowing for the first time statistically valid conclusions regarding...

  15. Cost Underestimation in Public Works Projects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Flyvbjerg, Bent; Holm, Mette K. Skamris; Buhl, Søren L.

    This article presents results from the first statistically significant study of cost escalation in transportation infrastructure projects. Based on a sample of 258 transportation infrastructure projects worth $90 billion (U.S.), it is found with overwhelming statistical significance that the cost...... honest numbers should not trust the cost estimates and cost-benefit analyses produced by project promoters and their analysts. Independent estimates and analyses are needed as are institutional checks and balances to curb deception.......This article presents results from the first statistically significant study of cost escalation in transportation infrastructure projects. Based on a sample of 258 transportation infrastructure projects worth $90 billion (U.S.), it is found with overwhelming statistical significance that the cost...... estimates used to decide whether important infrastructure should be built are highly and systematically misleading. The result is continuous cost escalation of billions of dollars. The sample used in the study is the largest of its kind, allowing for the first time statistically valid conclusions regarding...

  16. Satellite methods underestimate indirect climate forcing by aerosols

    Science.gov (United States)

    Penner, Joyce E.; Xu, Li; Wang, Minghuai

    2011-01-01

    Satellite-based estimates of the aerosol indirect effect (AIE) are consistently smaller than the estimates from global aerosol models, and, partly as a result of these differences, the assessment of this climate forcing includes large uncertainties. Satellite estimates typically use the present-day (PD) relationship between observed cloud drop number concentrations (Nc) and aerosol optical depths (AODs) to determine the preindustrial (PI) values of Nc. These values are then used to determine the PD and PI cloud albedos and, thus, the effect of anthropogenic aerosols on top of the atmosphere radiative fluxes. Here, we use a model with realistic aerosol and cloud processes to show that empirical relationships for ln(Nc) versus ln(AOD) derived from PD results do not represent the atmospheric perturbation caused by the addition of anthropogenic aerosols to the preindustrial atmosphere. As a result, the model estimates based on satellite methods of the AIE are between a factor of 3 to more than a factor of 6 smaller than model estimates based on actual PD and PI values for Nc. Using ln(Nc) versus ln(AI) (Aerosol Index, or the optical depth times angstrom exponent) to estimate preindustrial values for Nc provides estimates for Nc and forcing that are closer to the values predicted by the model. Nevertheless, the AIE using ln(Nc) versus ln(AI) may be substantially incorrect on a regional basis and may underestimate or overestimate the global average forcing by 25 to 35%. PMID:21808047

  17. Did the Stern Review underestimate US and global climate damages?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ackerman, Frank; Stanton, Elizabeth A.; Hope, Chris; Alberth, Stephane

    2009-01-01

    The Stern Review received widespread attention for its innovative approach to the economics of climate change when it appeared in 2006, and generated controversies that have continued to this day. One key controversy concerns the magnitude of the expected impacts of climate change. Stern's estimates, based on results from the PAGE2002 model, sounded substantially greater than those produced by many other models, leading several critics to suggest that Stern had inflated his damage figures. We reached the opposite conclusion in a recent application of PAGE2002 in a study of the costs to the US economy of inaction on climate change. This article describes our revisions to the PAGE estimates, and explains our conclusion that the model runs used in the Stern Review may well underestimate US and global damages. Stern's estimates from PAGE2002 implied that mean business-as-usual damages in 2100 would represent just 0.4 percent of GDP for the United States and 2.2 percent of GDP for the world. Our revisions and reinterpretation of the PAGE model imply that climate damages in 2100 could reach 2.6 percent of GDP for the United States and 10.8 percent for the world.

  18. Modelling the transmission of healthcare associated infections: a systematic review

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Background Dynamic transmission models are increasingly being used to improve our understanding of the epidemiology of healthcare-associated infections (HCAI). However, there has been no recent comprehensive review of this emerging field. This paper summarises how mathematical models have informed the field of HCAI and how methods have developed over time. Methods MEDLINE, EMBASE, Scopus, CINAHL plus and Global Health databases were systematically searched for dynamic mathematical models of HCAI transmission and/or the dynamics of antimicrobial resistance in healthcare settings. Results In total, 96 papers met the eligibility criteria. The main research themes considered were evaluation of infection control effectiveness (64%), variability in transmission routes (7%), the impact of movement patterns between healthcare institutes (5%), the development of antimicrobial resistance (3%), and strain competitiveness or co-colonisation with different strains (3%). Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus was the most commonly modelled HCAI (34%), followed by vancomycin resistant enterococci (16%). Other common HCAIs, e.g. Clostridum difficile, were rarely investigated (3%). Very few models have been published on HCAI from low or middle-income countries. The first HCAI model has looked at antimicrobial resistance in hospital settings using compartmental deterministic approaches. Stochastic models (which include the role of chance in the transmission process) are becoming increasingly common. Model calibration (inference of unknown parameters by fitting models to data) and sensitivity analysis are comparatively uncommon, occurring in 35% and 36% of studies respectively, but their application is increasing. Only 5% of models compared their predictions to external data. Conclusions Transmission models have been used to understand complex systems and to predict the impact of control policies. Methods have generally improved, with an increased use of stochastic models, and

  19. Systematic integration of experimental data and models in systems biology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Peter; Dada, Joseph O; Jameson, Daniel; Spasic, Irena; Swainston, Neil; Carroll, Kathleen; Dunn, Warwick; Khan, Farid; Malys, Naglis; Messiha, Hanan L; Simeonidis, Evangelos; Weichart, Dieter; Winder, Catherine; Wishart, Jill; Broomhead, David S; Goble, Carole A; Gaskell, Simon J; Kell, Douglas B; Westerhoff, Hans V; Mendes, Pedro; Paton, Norman W

    2010-11-29

    The behaviour of biological systems can be deduced from their mathematical models. However, multiple sources of data in diverse forms are required in the construction of a model in order to define its components and their biochemical reactions, and corresponding parameters. Automating the assembly and use of systems biology models is dependent upon data integration processes involving the interoperation of data and analytical resources. Taverna workflows have been developed for the automated assembly of quantitative parameterised metabolic networks in the Systems Biology Markup Language (SBML). A SBML model is built in a systematic fashion by the workflows which starts with the construction of a qualitative network using data from a MIRIAM-compliant genome-scale model of yeast metabolism. This is followed by parameterisation of the SBML model with experimental data from two repositories, the SABIO-RK enzyme kinetics database and a database of quantitative experimental results. The models are then calibrated and simulated in workflows that call out to COPASIWS, the web service interface to the COPASI software application for analysing biochemical networks. These systems biology workflows were evaluated for their ability to construct a parameterised model of yeast glycolysis. Distributed information about metabolic reactions that have been described to MIRIAM standards enables the automated assembly of quantitative systems biology models of metabolic networks based on user-defined criteria. Such data integration processes can be implemented as Taverna workflows to provide a rapid overview of the components and their relationships within a biochemical system.

  20. Agent-based modeling of noncommunicable diseases: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nianogo, Roch A; Arah, Onyebuchi A

    2015-03-01

    We reviewed the use of agent-based modeling (ABM), a systems science method, in understanding noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) and their public health risk factors. We systematically reviewed studies in PubMed, ScienceDirect, and Web of Sciences published from January 2003 to July 2014. We retrieved 22 relevant articles; each had an observational or interventional design. Physical activity and diet were the most-studied outcomes. Often, single agent types were modeled, and the environment was usually irrelevant to the studied outcome. Predictive validation and sensitivity analyses were most used to validate models. Although increasingly used to study NCDs, ABM remains underutilized and, where used, is suboptimally reported in public health studies. Its use in studying NCDs will benefit from clarified best practices and improved rigor to establish its usefulness and facilitate replication, interpretation, and application.

  1. Systematic review of prognostic models in traumatic brain injury

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roberts Ian

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Traumatic brain injury (TBI is a leading cause of death and disability world-wide. The ability to accurately predict patient outcome after TBI has an important role in clinical practice and research. Prognostic models are statistical models that combine two or more items of patient data to predict clinical outcome. They may improve predictions in TBI patients. Multiple prognostic models for TBI have accumulated for decades but none of them is widely used in clinical practice. The objective of this systematic review is to critically assess existing prognostic models for TBI Methods Studies that combine at least two variables to predict any outcome in patients with TBI were searched in PUBMED and EMBASE. Two reviewers independently examined titles, abstracts and assessed whether each met the pre-defined inclusion criteria. Results A total of 53 reports including 102 models were identified. Almost half (47% were derived from adult patients. Three quarters of the models included less than 500 patients. Most of the models (93% were from high income countries populations. Logistic regression was the most common analytical strategy to derived models (47%. In relation to the quality of the derivation models (n:66, only 15% reported less than 10% pf loss to follow-up, 68% did not justify the rationale to include the predictors, 11% conducted an external validation and only 19% of the logistic models presented the results in a clinically user-friendly way Conclusion Prognostic models are frequently published but they are developed from small samples of patients, their methodological quality is poor and they are rarely validated on external populations. Furthermore, they are not clinically practical as they are not presented to physicians in a user-friendly way. Finally because only a few are developed using populations from low and middle income countries, where most of trauma occurs, the generalizability to these setting is limited.

  2. Maturity Models in Supply Chain Sustainability: A Systematic Literature Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elisabete Correia

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available A systematic literature review of supply chain maturity models with sustainability concerns is presented. The objective is to give insights into methodological issues related to maturity models, namely the research objectives; the research methods used to develop, validate and test them; the scope; and the main characteristics associated with their design. The literature review was performed based on journal articles and conference papers from 2000 to 2015 using the SCOPUS, Emerald Insight, EBSCO and Web of Science databases. Most of the analysed papers have as main objective the development of maturity models and their validation. The case study is the methodology that is most widely used by researchers to develop and validate maturity models. From the sustainability perspective, the scope of the analysed maturity models is the Triple Bottom Line (TBL and environmental dimension, focusing on a specific process (eco-design and new product development and without a broad SC perspective. The dominant characteristics associated with the design of the maturity models are the maturity grids and a continuous representation. In addition, results do not allow identifying a trend for a specific number of maturity levels. The comprehensive review, analysis, and synthesis of the maturity model literature represent an important contribution to the organization of this research area, making possible to clarify some confusion that exists about concepts, approaches and components of maturity models in sustainability. Various aspects associated with the maturity models (i.e., research objectives, research methods, scope and characteristics of the design of models are explored to contribute to the evolution and significance of this multidimensional area.

  3. A Systematic Literature Review of Agile Maturity Model Research

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vaughan Henriques

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Background/Aim/Purpose: A commonly implemented software process improvement framework is the capability maturity model integrated (CMMI. Existing literature indicates higher levels of CMMI maturity could result in a loss of agility due to its organizational focus. To maintain agility, research has focussed attention on agile maturity models. The objective of this paper is to find the common research themes and conclusions in agile maturity model research. Methodology: This research adopts a systematic approach to agile maturity model research, using Google Scholar, Science Direct, and IEEE Xplore as sources. In total 531 articles were initially found matching the search criteria, which was filtered to 39 articles by applying specific exclusion criteria. Contribution:: The article highlights the trends in agile maturity model research, specifically bringing to light the lack of research providing validation of such models. Findings: Two major themes emerge, being the coexistence of agile and CMMI and the development of agile principle based maturity models. The research trend indicates an increase in agile maturity model articles, particularly in the latter half of the last decade, with concentrations of research coinciding with version updates of CMMI. While there is general consensus around higher CMMI maturity levels being incompatible with true agility, there is evidence of the two coexisting when agile is introduced into already highly matured environments. Future Research:\tFuture research direction for this topic should include how to attain higher levels of CMMI maturity using only agile methods, how governance is addressed in agile environments, and whether existing agile maturity models relate to improved project success.

  4. Underestimated effect sizes in GWAS: fundamental limitations of single SNP analysis for dichotomous phenotypes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sven Stringer

    Full Text Available Complex diseases are often highly heritable. However, for many complex traits only a small proportion of the heritability can be explained by observed genetic variants in traditional genome-wide association (GWA studies. Moreover, for some of those traits few significant SNPs have been identified. Single SNP association methods test for association at a single SNP, ignoring the effect of other SNPs. We show using a simple multi-locus odds model of complex disease that moderate to large effect sizes of causal variants may be estimated as relatively small effect sizes in single SNP association testing. This underestimation effect is most severe for diseases influenced by numerous risk variants. We relate the underestimation effect to the concept of non-collapsibility found in the statistics literature. As described, continuous phenotypes generated with linear genetic models are not affected by this underestimation effect. Since many GWA studies apply single SNP analysis to dichotomous phenotypes, previously reported results potentially underestimate true effect sizes, thereby impeding identification of true effect SNPs. Therefore, when a multi-locus model of disease risk is assumed, a multi SNP analysis may be more appropriate.

  5. Systematic review of model-based cervical screening evaluations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mendes, Diana; Bains, Iren; Vanni, Tazio; Jit, Mark

    2015-05-01

    Optimising population-based cervical screening policies is becoming more complex due to the expanding range of screening technologies available and the interplay with vaccine-induced changes in epidemiology. Mathematical models are increasingly being applied to assess the impact of cervical cancer screening strategies. We systematically reviewed MEDLINE®, Embase, Web of Science®, EconLit, Health Economic Evaluation Database, and The Cochrane Library databases in order to identify the mathematical models of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection and cervical cancer progression used to assess the effectiveness and/or cost-effectiveness of cervical cancer screening strategies. Key model features and conclusions relevant to decision-making were extracted. We found 153 articles meeting our eligibility criteria published up to May 2013. Most studies (72/153) evaluated the introduction of a new screening technology, with particular focus on the comparison of HPV DNA testing and cytology (n = 58). Twenty-eight in forty of these analyses supported HPV DNA primary screening implementation. A few studies analysed more recent technologies - rapid HPV DNA testing (n = 3), HPV DNA self-sampling (n = 4), and genotyping (n = 1) - and were also supportive of their introduction. However, no study was found on emerging molecular markers and their potential utility in future screening programmes. Most evaluations (113/153) were based on models simulating aggregate groups of women at risk of cervical cancer over time without accounting for HPV infection transmission. Calibration to country-specific outcome data is becoming more common, but has not yet become standard practice. Models of cervical screening are increasingly used, and allow extrapolation of trial data to project the population-level health and economic impact of different screening policy. However, post-vaccination analyses have rarely incorporated transmission dynamics. Model calibration to country

  6. Testing flow diversion in animal models: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fahed, Robert; Raymond, Jean; Ducroux, Célina; Gentric, Jean-Christophe; Salazkin, Igor; Ziegler, Daniela; Gevry, Guylaine; Darsaut, Tim E

    2016-04-01

    Flow diversion (FD) is increasingly used to treat intracranial aneurysms. We sought to systematically review published studies to assess the quality of reporting and summarize the results of FD in various animal models. Databases were searched to retrieve all animal studies on FD from 2000 to 2015. Extracted data included species and aneurysm models, aneurysm and neck dimensions, type of flow diverter, occlusion rates, and complications. Articles were evaluated using a checklist derived from the Animal Research: Reporting of In Vivo Experiments (ARRIVE) guidelines. Forty-two articles reporting the results of FD in nine different aneurysm models were included. The rabbit elastase-induced aneurysm model was the most commonly used, with 3-month occlusion rates of 73.5%, (95%CI [61.9-82.6%]). FD of surgical sidewall aneurysms, constructed in rabbits or canines, resulted in high occlusion rates (100% [65.5-100%]). FD resulted in modest occlusion rates (15.4% [8.9-25.1%]) when tested in six complex canine aneurysm models designed to reproduce more difficult clinical contexts (large necks, bifurcation, or fusiform aneurysms). Adverse events, including branch occlusion, were rarely reported. There were no hemorrhagic complications. Articles complied with 20.8 ± 3.9 of 41 ARRIVE items; only a small number used randomization (3/42 articles [7.1%]) or a control group (13/42 articles [30.9%]). Preclinical studies on FD have shown various results. Occlusion of elastase-induced aneurysms was common after FD. The model is not challenging but standardized in many laboratories. Failures of FD can be reproduced in less standardized but more challenging surgical canine constructions. The quality of reporting could be improved.

  7. A systematic hub loads model of a horizontal wind turbine

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kazacoks, Romans; Jamieson, Peter

    2014-01-01

    The wind turbine industry has focused offshore on increasing the capacity of a single unit through up-scaling their machines. There is however a lack of systematic studies on how loads vary due to properties of a wind turbine and scaling of wind turbines. The purpose of this paper is to study how applied blade modifications, with similarities such as mass, stiffness and dimensions, influence blade root moments and lifetime damage equivalent loads (DELs) of the rotor blades. In order to produce fatigue load blade root moment trends based on the applied modifications. It was found that a linear trend of lifetime DELs based on the applied modifications of blades, which have effect on the natural frequency of blade of the original or reference model. As the control system was tuned for the specific frequency of the reference model. The linear trend of lifetime DELs was generated as long as the natural frequency of the reference model was preserved. For larger modifications of the wind turbine the controller would need retuning

  8. Background model systematics for the Fermi GeV excess

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Calore, Francesca; Cholis, Ilias; Weniger, Christoph

    2015-03-01

    The possible gamma-ray excess in the inner Galaxy and the Galactic center (GC) suggested by Fermi-LAT observations has triggered a large number of studies. It has been interpreted as a variety of different phenomena such as a signal from WIMP dark matter annihilation, gamma-ray emission from a population of millisecond pulsars, or emission from cosmic rays injected in a sequence of burst-like events or continuously at the GC. We present the first comprehensive study of model systematics coming from the Galactic diffuse emission in the inner part of our Galaxy and their impact on the inferred properties of the excess emission at Galactic latitudes 2° < |b| < 20° and 300 MeV to 500 GeV. We study both theoretical and empirical model systematics, which we deduce from a large range of Galactic diffuse emission models and a principal component analysis of residuals in numerous test regions along the Galactic plane. We show that the hypothesis of an extended spherical excess emission with a uniform energy spectrum is compatible with the Fermi-LAT data in our region of interest at 95% CL. Assuming that this excess is the extended counterpart of the one seen in the inner few degrees of the Galaxy, we derive a lower limit of 10.0° (95% CL) on its extension away from the GC. We show that, in light of the large correlated uncertainties that affect the subtraction of the Galactic diffuse emission in the relevant regions, the energy spectrum of the excess is equally compatible with both a simple broken power-law of break energy E(break) = 2.1 ± 0.2 GeV, and with spectra predicted by the self-annihilation of dark matter, implying in the case of bar bb final states a dark matter mass of m(χ)=49(+6.4)(-)(5.4)  GeV.

  9. BMI may underestimate the socioeconomic gradient in true obesity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van den Berg, G.; van Eijsden, M.; Vrijkotte, T. G. M.; Gemke, R. J. B. J.

    2013-01-01

    Body mass index (BMI) does not make a distinction between fat mass and lean mass. In children, high fat mass appears to be associated with low maternal education, as well as low lean mass because maternal education is associated with physical activity. Therefore, BMI might underestimate true obesity

  10. Nuclear power plant cost underestimation: mechanisms and corrections

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meyer, M.B.

    1984-01-01

    Criticisms of inaccurate nuclear power plant cost estimates have commonly focused upon what factors have caused actual costs to increase and not upon the engineering cost estimate methodology itself. This article describes two major sources of cost underestimation and suggests corrections for each which can be applied while retaining the traditional engineering methodology in general

  11. Uterine radiation dose from open sources: The potential for underestimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cox, P.H.; Klijn, J.G.M.; Pillay, M.; Bontebal, M.; Schoenfeld, D.H.W.

    1990-01-01

    Recent observations on the biodistribution of a therapeutic dose of sodium iodide I 131 in a patient with an unsuspected early pregnancy lead us to suspect that current dose estimates with respect to uterine exposure (ARSAC 1988) may seriously underestimate the actual exposure of the developing foetus. (orig.)

  12. the Underestimation of Isorene in Houston during the Texas 2013 DISCOVER-AQ Campaign

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Y.; Diao, L.; Czader, B.; Li, X.; Estes, M. J.

    2014-12-01

    This study applies principal component analysis to aircraft data from the Texas 2013 DISCOVER-AQ (Deriving Information on Surface Conditions from Column and Vertically Resolved Observations Relevant to Air Quality) field campaign to characterize isoprene sources over Houston during September 2013. The biogenic isoprene signature appears in the third principal component and anthropogenic signals in the following two. Evaluations of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model simulations of isoprene with airborne measurements are more accurate for suburban areas than for industrial areas. This study also compares model outputs to eight surface automated gas chromatograph (Auto-GC) measurements near the Houston ship channel industrial area during the nighttime and shows that modeled anthropogenic isoprene is underestimated by a factor of 10.60. This study employs a new simulation with a modified anthropogenic emissions inventory (constraining using the ratios of observed values versus simulated ones) that yields closer isoprene predictions at night with a reduction in the mean bias by 56.93%, implying that model-estimated isoprene emissions from the 2008 National Emission Inventory are underestimated in the city of Houston and that other climate models or chemistry and transport models using the same emissions inventory might also be underestimated in other Houston-like areas in the United States.

  13. An interoceptive model of bulimia nervosa: A neurobiological systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klabunde, Megan; Collado, Danielle; Bohon, Cara

    2017-11-01

    The objective of our study was to examine the neurobiological support for an interoceptive sensory processing model of bulimia nervosa (BN). To do so, we conducted a systematic review of interoceptive sensory processing in BN, using the PRISMA guidelines. We searched PsychInfo, Pubmed, and Web of Knowledge databases to identify biological and behavioral studies that examine interoceptive detection in BN. After screening 390 articles for inclusion and conducting a quality assessment of articles that met inclusion criteria, we reviewed 41 articles. We found that global interoceptive sensory processing deficits may be present in BN. Specifically there is evidence of abnormal brain function, structure and connectivity in the interoceptive neural network, in addition to gastric and pain processing disturbances. These results suggest that there may be a neurobiological basis for global interoceptive sensory processing deficits in BN that remain after recovery. Data from taste and heart beat detection studies were inconclusive; some studies suggest interoceptive disturbances in these sensory domains. Discrepancies in findings appear to be due to methodological differences. In conclusion, interoceptive sensory processing deficits may directly contribute to and explain a variety of symptoms present in those with BN. Further examination of interoceptive sensory processing deficits could inform the development of treatments for those with BN. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Black carbon in the Arctic: the underestimated role of gas flaring and residential combustion emissions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Stohl

    2013-09-01

    annual mean Arctic BC surface concentrations due to residential combustion by 68% when using daily emissions. A large part (93% of this systematic increase can be captured also when using monthly emissions; the increase is compensated by a decreased BC burden at lower latitudes. In a comparison with BC measurements at six Arctic stations, we find that using daily-varying residential combustion emissions and introducing gas flaring emissions leads to large improvements of the simulated Arctic BC, both in terms of mean concentration levels and simulated seasonality. Case studies based on BC and carbon monoxide (CO measurements from the Zeppelin observatory appear to confirm flaring as an important BC source that can produce pollution plumes in the Arctic with a high BC / CO enhancement ratio, as expected for this source type. BC measurements taken during a research ship cruise in the White, Barents and Kara seas north of the region with strong flaring emissions reveal very high concentrations of the order of 200–400 ng m−3. The model underestimates these concentrations substantially, which indicates that the flaring emissions (and probably also other emissions in northern Siberia are rather under- than overestimated in our emission data set. Our results suggest that it may not be "vertical transport that is too strong or scavenging rates that are too low" and "opposite biases in these processes" in the Arctic and elsewhere in current aerosol models, as suggested in a recent review article (Bond et al., Bounding the role of black carbon in the climate system: a scientific assessment, J. Geophys. Res., 2013, but missing emission sources and lacking time resolution of the emission data that are causing opposite model biases in simulated BC concentrations in the Arctic and in the mid-latitudes.

  15. FROM ATOMISTIC TO SYSTEMATIC COARSE-GRAINED MODELS FOR MOLECULAR SYSTEMS

    KAUST Repository

    Harmandaris, Vagelis; Kalligiannaki, Evangelia; Katsoulakis, Markos; Plechac, Petr

    2017-01-01

    The development of systematic (rigorous) coarse-grained mesoscopic models for complex molecular systems is an intense research area. Here we first give an overview of methods for obtaining optimal parametrized coarse-grained models, starting from

  16. Tritium: an underestimated health risk- 'ACROnic du nucleaire' nr 85, June 2009

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barbey, Pierre

    2009-06-01

    After having indicated how tritium released in the environment (under the form of tritiated water or gas) is absorbed by living species, the author describes the different biological effects of ionizing radiations and the risk associated with tritium. He evokes how the radiation protection system is designed with respect to standards, and outlines how the risk related to tritium is underestimated by different existing models and standards. The author discusses the consequences of tritium transmutation and of the isotopic effect

  17. Absorbing systematic effects to obtain a better background model in a search for new physics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Caron, S; Horner, S; Sundermann, J E; Cowan, G; Gross, E

    2009-01-01

    This paper presents a novel approach to estimate the Standard Model backgrounds based on modifying Monte Carlo predictions within their systematic uncertainties. The improved background model is obtained by altering the original predictions with successively more complex correction functions in signal-free control selections. Statistical tests indicate when sufficient compatibility with data is reached. In this way, systematic effects are absorbed into the new background model. The same correction is then applied on the Monte Carlo prediction in the signal region. Comparing this method to other background estimation techniques shows improvements with respect to statistical and systematic uncertainties. The proposed method can also be applied in other fields beyond high energy physics.

  18. A Systematic Review of Agent-Based Modelling and Simulation Applications in the Higher Education Domain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gu, X.; Blackmore, K. L.

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents the results of a systematic review of agent-based modelling and simulation (ABMS) applications in the higher education (HE) domain. Agent-based modelling is a "bottom-up" modelling paradigm in which system-level behaviour (macro) is modelled through the behaviour of individual local-level agent interactions (micro).…

  19. Individuals underestimate moderate and vigorous intensity physical activity.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karissa L Canning

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: It is unclear whether the common physical activity (PA intensity descriptors used in PA guidelines worldwide align with the associated percent heart rate maximum method used for prescribing relative PA intensities consistently between sexes, ethnicities, age categories and across body mass index (BMI classifications. OBJECTIVES: The objectives of this study were to determine whether individuals properly select light, moderate and vigorous intensity PA using the intensity descriptions in PA guidelines and determine if there are differences in estimation across sex, ethnicity, age and BMI classifications. METHODS: 129 adults were instructed to walk/jog at a "light," "moderate" and "vigorous effort" in a randomized order. The PA intensities were categorized as being below, at or above the following %HRmax ranges of: 50-63% for light, 64-76% for moderate and 77-93% for vigorous effort. RESULTS: On average, people correctly estimated light effort as 51.5±8.3%HRmax but underestimated moderate effort as 58.7±10.7%HRmax and vigorous effort as 69.9±11.9%HRmax. Participants walked at a light intensity (57.4±10.5%HRmax when asked to walk at a pace that provided health benefits, wherein 52% of participants walked at a light effort pace, 19% walked at a moderate effort and 5% walked at a vigorous effort pace. These results did not differ by sex, ethnicity or BMI class. However, younger adults underestimated moderate and vigorous intensity more so than middle-aged adults (P<0.05. CONCLUSION: When the common PA guideline descriptors were aligned with the associated %HRmax ranges, the majority of participants underestimated the intensity of PA that is needed to obtain health benefits. Thus, new subjective descriptions for moderate and vigorous intensity may be warranted to aid individuals in correctly interpreting PA intensities.

  20. Guiding exploration in conformational feature space with Lipschitz underestimation for ab-initio protein structure prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hao, Xiaohu; Zhang, Guijun; Zhou, Xiaogen

    2018-04-01

    Computing conformations which are essential to associate structural and functional information with gene sequences, is challenging due to the high dimensionality and rugged energy surface of the protein conformational space. Consequently, the dimension of the protein conformational space should be reduced to a proper level, and an effective exploring algorithm should be proposed. In this paper, a plug-in method for guiding exploration in conformational feature space with Lipschitz underestimation (LUE) for ab-initio protein structure prediction is proposed. The conformational space is converted into ultrafast shape recognition (USR) feature space firstly. Based on the USR feature space, the conformational space can be further converted into Underestimation space according to Lipschitz estimation theory for guiding exploration. As a consequence of the use of underestimation model, the tight lower bound estimate information can be used for exploration guidance, the invalid sampling areas can be eliminated in advance, and the number of energy function evaluations can be reduced. The proposed method provides a novel technique to solve the exploring problem of protein conformational space. LUE is applied to differential evolution (DE) algorithm, and metropolis Monte Carlo(MMC) algorithm which is available in the Rosetta; When LUE is applied to DE and MMC, it will be screened by the underestimation method prior to energy calculation and selection. Further, LUE is compared with DE and MMC by testing on 15 small-to-medium structurally diverse proteins. Test results show that near-native protein structures with higher accuracy can be obtained more rapidly and efficiently with the use of LUE. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Acute Myocardial Infarction Readmission Risk Prediction Models: A Systematic Review of Model Performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Lauren N; Makam, Anil N; Darden, Douglas; Mayo, Helen; Das, Sandeep R; Halm, Ethan A; Nguyen, Oanh Kieu

    2018-01-01

    Hospitals are subject to federal financial penalties for excessive 30-day hospital readmissions for acute myocardial infarction (AMI). Prospectively identifying patients hospitalized with AMI at high risk for readmission could help prevent 30-day readmissions by enabling targeted interventions. However, the performance of AMI-specific readmission risk prediction models is unknown. We systematically searched the published literature through March 2017 for studies of risk prediction models for 30-day hospital readmission among adults with AMI. We identified 11 studies of 18 unique risk prediction models across diverse settings primarily in the United States, of which 16 models were specific to AMI. The median overall observed all-cause 30-day readmission rate across studies was 16.3% (range, 10.6%-21.0%). Six models were based on administrative data; 4 on electronic health record data; 3 on clinical hospital data; and 5 on cardiac registry data. Models included 7 to 37 predictors, of which demographics, comorbidities, and utilization metrics were the most frequently included domains. Most models, including the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services AMI administrative model, had modest discrimination (median C statistic, 0.65; range, 0.53-0.79). Of the 16 reported AMI-specific models, only 8 models were assessed in a validation cohort, limiting generalizability. Observed risk-stratified readmission rates ranged from 3.0% among the lowest-risk individuals to 43.0% among the highest-risk individuals, suggesting good risk stratification across all models. Current AMI-specific readmission risk prediction models have modest predictive ability and uncertain generalizability given methodological limitations. No existing models provide actionable information in real time to enable early identification and risk-stratification of patients with AMI before hospital discharge, a functionality needed to optimize the potential effectiveness of readmission reduction interventions

  2. Underestimating nearby nature: affective forecasting errors obscure the happy path to sustainability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nisbet, Elizabeth K; Zelenski, John M

    2011-09-01

    Modern lifestyles disconnect people from nature, and this may have adverse consequences for the well-being of both humans and the environment. In two experiments, we found that although outdoor walks in nearby nature made participants much happier than indoor walks did, participants made affective forecasting errors, such that they systematically underestimated nature's hedonic benefit. The pleasant moods experienced on outdoor nature walks facilitated a subjective sense of connection with nature, a construct strongly linked with concern for the environment and environmentally sustainable behavior. To the extent that affective forecasts determine choices, our findings suggest that people fail to maximize their time in nearby nature and thus miss opportunities to increase their happiness and relatedness to nature. Our findings suggest a happy path to sustainability, whereby contact with nature fosters individual happiness and environmentally responsible behavior.

  3. Modelling the transuranic contamination in soils by using a generic model and systematic sampling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Breitenecker, Katharina; Brandl, Alexander; Bock, Helmut; Villa, Mario

    2008-01-01

    Full text: In the course of the decommissioning the former ASTRA Research Reactor, the Seibersdorf site is to be surveyed for possible contamination by radioactive materials, including transuranium elements. To limit costs due to systematic sampling and time consuming laboratory analyses, a mathematical model that describes the migration of transuranium elements and that includes the local topography of the area where deposition has occurred, was established.The project basis is to find a mathematical function that determines the contamination by modelling the pathways of transuranium elements. The model approach chosen is cellular automata (CA). For this purpose, a hypothetical activity of transuranium elements is released on the ground in the centre of a simulated area. Under the assumption that migration of these elements only takes place by diffusion, transport and sorption, their equations are modelled in the CA-model by a simple discretization for the existing problem. To include local topography, most of the simulated area consists of a green corridor, where migration proceeds quite slowly; streets, where the migrational behaviour is different, and migration velocities in ditches are also modelled. The Migration of three different plutonium isotopes ( 238P u, 239+240P u, 241P u), the migration of one americium isotope ( 241A m), the radioactive decay of 241P u via 241A m to 237N p and the radioactive decay of 238P u to 234U were considered in this model. Due to the special modelling approach of CA, the physical necessity of conservation of the amount of substance is always fulfilled. The entire system was implemented in MATLAB. Systematic sampling onto a featured test site, followed by detailed laboratory analyses were done to compare the underlying CA-model to real data. On this account a nuclide vector with 241A m as the reference nuclide was established. As long as the initial parameters (e.g. meteorological data) are well known, the model describes the

  4. Information Processing and Risk Perception: An Adaptation of the Heuristic-Systematic Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trumbo, Craig W.

    2002-01-01

    Describes heuristic-systematic information-processing model and risk perception--the two major conceptual areas of the analysis. Discusses the proposed model, describing the context of the data collections (public health communication involving cancer epidemiology) and providing the results of a set of three replications using the proposed model.…

  5. Systematic Methods and Tools for Computer Aided Modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fedorova, Marina

    and processes can be faster, cheaper and very efficient. The developed modelling framework involves five main elements: 1) a modelling tool, that includes algorithms for model generation; 2) a template library, which provides building blocks for the templates (generic models previously developed); 3) computer......-format and COM-objects, are incorporated to allow the export and import of mathematical models; 5) a user interface that provides the work-flow and data-flow to guide the user through the different modelling tasks....

  6. Systematic and reliable multiscale modelling of lithium batteries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atalay, Selcuk; Schmuck, Markus

    2017-11-01

    Motivated by the increasing interest in lithium batteries as energy storage devices (e.g. cars/bycicles/public transport, social robot companions, mobile phones, and tablets), we investigate three basic cells: (i) a single intercalation host; (ii) a periodic arrangement of intercalation hosts; and (iii) a rigorously upscaled formulation of (ii) as initiated in. By systematically accounting for Li transport and interfacial reactions in (i)-(iii), we compute the associated chracteristic current-voltage curves and power densities. Finally, we discuss the influence of how the intercalation particles are arranged. Our findings are expected to improve the understanding of how microscopic properties affect the battery behaviour observed on the macroscale and at the same time, the upscaled formulation (iii) serves as an efficient computational tool. This work has been supported by EPSRC, UK, through the Grant No. EP/P011713/1.

  7. Simulation Models for Socioeconomic Inequalities in Health: A Systematic Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Niko Speybroeck

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Background: The emergence and evolution of socioeconomic inequalities in health involves multiple factors interacting with each other at different levels. Simulation models are suitable for studying such complex and dynamic systems and have the ability to test the impact of policy interventions in silico. Objective: To explore how simulation models were used in the field of socioeconomic inequalities in health. Methods: An electronic search of studies assessing socioeconomic inequalities in health using a simulation model was conducted. Characteristics of the simulation models were extracted and distinct simulation approaches were identified. As an illustration, a simple agent-based model of the emergence of socioeconomic differences in alcohol abuse was developed. Results: We found 61 studies published between 1989 and 2013. Ten different simulation approaches were identified. The agent-based model illustration showed that multilevel, reciprocal and indirect effects of social determinants on health can be modeled flexibly. Discussion and Conclusions: Based on the review, we discuss the utility of using simulation models for studying health inequalities, and refer to good modeling practices for developing such models. The review and the simulation model example suggest that the use of simulation models may enhance the understanding and debate about existing and new socioeconomic inequalities of health frameworks.

  8. Asteroseismic modelling of solar-type stars: internal systematics from input physics and surface correction methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nsamba, B.; Campante, T. L.; Monteiro, M. J. P. F. G.; Cunha, M. S.; Rendle, B. M.; Reese, D. R.; Verma, K.

    2018-04-01

    Asteroseismic forward modelling techniques are being used to determine fundamental properties (e.g. mass, radius, and age) of solar-type stars. The need to take into account all possible sources of error is of paramount importance towards a robust determination of stellar properties. We present a study of 34 solar-type stars for which high signal-to-noise asteroseismic data is available from multi-year Kepler photometry. We explore the internal systematics on the stellar properties, that is, associated with the uncertainty in the input physics used to construct the stellar models. In particular, we explore the systematics arising from: (i) the inclusion of the diffusion of helium and heavy elements; and (ii) the uncertainty in solar metallicity mixture. We also assess the systematics arising from (iii) different surface correction methods used in optimisation/fitting procedures. The systematics arising from comparing results of models with and without diffusion are found to be 0.5%, 0.8%, 2.1%, and 16% in mean density, radius, mass, and age, respectively. The internal systematics in age are significantly larger than the statistical uncertainties. We find the internal systematics resulting from the uncertainty in solar metallicity mixture to be 0.7% in mean density, 0.5% in radius, 1.4% in mass, and 6.7% in age. The surface correction method by Sonoi et al. and Ball & Gizon's two-term correction produce the lowest internal systematics among the different correction methods, namely, ˜1%, ˜1%, ˜2%, and ˜8% in mean density, radius, mass, and age, respectively. Stellar masses obtained using the surface correction methods by Kjeldsen et al. and Ball & Gizon's one-term correction are systematically higher than those obtained using frequency ratios.

  9. Prediction models for successful external cephalic version: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Velzel, Joost; de Hundt, Marcella; Mulder, Frederique M; Molkenboer, Jan F M; Van der Post, Joris A M; Mol, Ben W; Kok, Marjolein

    2015-12-01

    To provide an overview of existing prediction models for successful ECV, and to assess their quality, development and performance. We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE and the Cochrane Library to identify all articles reporting on prediction models for successful ECV published from inception to January 2015. We extracted information on study design, sample size, model-building strategies and validation. We evaluated the phases of model development and summarized their performance in terms of discrimination, calibration and clinical usefulness. We collected different predictor variables together with their defined significance, in order to identify important predictor variables for successful ECV. We identified eight articles reporting on seven prediction models. All models were subjected to internal validation. Only one model was also validated in an external cohort. Two prediction models had a low overall risk of bias, of which only one showed promising predictive performance at internal validation. This model also completed the phase of external validation. For none of the models their impact on clinical practice was evaluated. The most important predictor variables for successful ECV described in the selected articles were parity, placental location, breech engagement and the fetal head being palpable. One model was assessed using discrimination and calibration using internal (AUC 0.71) and external validation (AUC 0.64), while two other models were assessed with discrimination and calibration, respectively. We found one prediction model for breech presentation that was validated in an external cohort and had acceptable predictive performance. This model should be used to council women considering ECV. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

  10. Aerospace structural design process improvement using systematic evolutionary structural modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Robert Michael

    2000-10-01

    A multidisciplinary team tasked with an aircraft design problem must understand the problem requirements and metrics to produce a successful design. This understanding entails not only knowledge of what these requirements and metrics are, but also how they interact, which are most important (to the customer as well as to aircraft performance), and who in the organization can provide pertinent knowledge for each. In recent years, product development researchers and organizations have developed and successfully applied a variety of tools such as Quality Function Deployment (QFD) to coordinate multidisciplinary team members. The effectiveness of these methods, however, depends on the quality and fidelity of the information that team members can input. In conceptual aircraft design, structural information is of lower quality compared to aerodynamics or performance because it is based on experience rather than theory. This dissertation shows how advanced structural design tools can be used in a multidisciplinary team setting to improve structural information generation and communication through a systematic evolution of structural detail. When applied to conceptual design, finite element-based structural design tools elevate structural information to the same level as other computationally supported disciplines. This improved ability to generate and communicate structural information enables a design team to better identify and meet structural design requirements, consider producibility issues earlier, and evaluate structural concepts. A design process experiment of a wing structural layout in collaboration with an industrial partner illustrates and validates the approach.

  11. Spatially unresolved SED fitting can underestimate galaxy masses: a solution to the missing mass problem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sorba, Robert; Sawicki, Marcin

    2018-05-01

    We perform spatially resolved, pixel-by-pixel Spectral Energy Distribution (SED) fitting on galaxies up to z ˜ 2.5 in the Hubble eXtreme Deep Field (XDF). Comparing stellar mass estimates from spatially resolved and spatially unresolved photometry we find that unresolved masses can be systematically underestimated by factors of up to 5. The ratio of the unresolved to resolved mass measurement depends on the galaxy's specific star formation rate (sSFR): at low sSFRs the bias is small, but above sSFR ˜ 10-9.5 yr-1 the discrepancy increases rapidly such that galaxies with sSFRs ˜ 10-8 yr-1 have unresolved mass estimates of only one-half to one-fifth of the resolved value. This result indicates that stellar masses estimated from spatially unresolved data sets need to be systematically corrected, in some cases by large amounts, and we provide an analytic prescription for applying this correction. We show that correcting stellar mass measurements for this bias changes the normalization and slope of the star-forming main sequence and reduces its intrinsic width; most dramatically, correcting for the mass bias increases the stellar mass density of the Universe at high redshift and can resolve the long-standing discrepancy between the directly measured cosmic SFR density at z ≳ 1 and that inferred from stellar mass densities (`the missing mass problem').

  12. Prediction models for successful external cephalic version: a systematic review

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Velzel, Joost; de Hundt, Marcella; Mulder, Frederique M.; Molkenboer, Jan F. M.; van der Post, Joris A. M.; Mol, Ben W.; Kok, Marjolein

    2015-01-01

    To provide an overview of existing prediction models for successful ECV, and to assess their quality, development and performance. We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE and the Cochrane Library to identify all articles reporting on prediction models for successful ECV published from inception to January 2015.

  13. Bayesian Network Models in Cyber Security: A Systematic Review

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chockalingam, S.; Pieters, W.; Herdeiro Teixeira, A.M.; van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M.; Lipmaa, Helger; Mitrokotsa, Aikaterini; Matulevicius, Raimundas

    2017-01-01

    Bayesian Networks (BNs) are an increasingly popular modelling technique in cyber security especially due to their capability to overcome data limitations. This is also instantiated by the growth of BN models development in cyber security. However, a comprehensive comparison and analysis of these

  14. Quality of life and time to death: have the health gains of preventive interventions been underestimated?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gheorghe, Maria; Brouwer, Werner B F; van Baal, Pieter H M

    2015-04-01

    This article explores the implications of the relation between quality of life (QoL) and time to death (TTD) for economic evaluations of preventive interventions. By using health survey data on QoL for the general Dutch population linked to the mortality registry, we quantify the magnitude of this relationship. For addressing specific features of the nonstandard QoL distribution such as boundness, skewness, and heteroscedasticity, we modeled QoL using a generalized additive model for location, scale, and shape (GAMLSS) with a β inflated outcome distribution. Our empirical results indicate that QoL decreases when approaching death, suggesting that there is a strong relationship between TTD and QoL. Predictions of different regression models revealed that ignoring this relationship results in an underestimation of the quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gains for preventive interventions. The underestimation ranged between 3% and 7% and depended on age, the number of years gained from the intervention, and the discount rate used. © The Author(s) 2014.

  15. A Large Underestimate of Formic Acid from Tropical Fires: Constraints from Space-Borne Measurements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaliyakunnel, S; Millet, D B; Wells, K C; Cady-Pereira, K E; Shephard, M W

    2016-06-07

    Formic acid (HCOOH) is one of the most abundant carboxylic acids and a dominant source of atmospheric acidity. Recent work indicates a major gap in the HCOOH budget, with atmospheric concentrations much larger than expected from known sources. Here, we employ recent space-based observations from the Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer with the GEOS-Chem atmospheric model to better quantify the HCOOH source from biomass burning, and assess whether fire emissions can help close the large budget gap for this species. The space-based data reveal a severe model HCOOH underestimate most prominent over tropical burning regions, suggesting a major missing source of organic acids from fires. We develop an approach for inferring the fractional fire contribution to ambient HCOOH and find, based on measurements over Africa, that pyrogenic HCOOH:CO enhancement ratios are much higher than expected from direct emissions alone, revealing substantial secondary organic acid production in fire plumes. Current models strongly underestimate (by 10 ± 5 times) the total primary and secondary HCOOH source from African fires. If a 10-fold bias were to extend to fires in other regions, biomass burning could produce 14 Tg/a of HCOOH in the tropics or 16 Tg/a worldwide. However, even such an increase would only represent 15-20% of the total required HCOOH source, implying the existence of other larger missing sources.

  16. Models of care in nursing: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandez, Ritin; Johnson, Maree; Tran, Duong Thuy; Miranda, Charmaine

    2012-12-01

    This review investigated the effect of the various models of nursing care delivery using the diverse levels of nurses on patient and nursing outcomes. All published studies that investigated patient and nursing outcomes were considered. Studies were included if the nursing delivery models only included nurses with varying skill levels. A literature search was performed using the following databases: Medline (1985-2011), CINAHL (1985-2011), EMBASE (1985 to current) and the Cochrane Controlled Studies Register (Issue 3, 2011 of Cochrane Library). In addition, the reference lists of relevant studies and conference proceedings were also scrutinised. Two reviewers independently assessed the eligibility of the studies for inclusion in the review, the methodological quality and extracted details of eligible studies. Data were analysed using the RevMan software (Nordic Cochrane Centre, Copenhagen, Denmark). Fourteen studies were included in this review. The results reveal that implementation of the team nursing model of care resulted in significantly decreased incidence of medication errors and adverse intravenous outcomes, as well as lower pain scores among patients; however, there was no effect of this model of care on the incidence of falls. Wards that used a hybrid model demonstrated significant improvement in quality of patient care, but no difference in incidence of pressure areas or infection rates. There were no significant differences in nursing outcomes relating to role clarity, job satisfaction and nurse absenteeism rates between any of the models of care. Based on the available evidence, a predominance of team nursing within the comparisons is suggestive of its popularity. Patient outcomes, nurse satisfaction, absenteeism and role clarity/confusion did not differ across model comparisons. Little benefit was found within primary nursing comparisons and the cost effectiveness of team nursing over other models remains debatable. Nonetheless, team nursing does

  17. Body Size Estimation from Early to Middle Childhood: Stability of Underestimation, BMI, and Gender Effects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silje Steinsbekk

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Individuals who are overweight are more likely to underestimate their body size than those who are normal weight, and overweight underestimators are less likely to engage in weight loss efforts. Underestimation of body size might represent a barrier to prevention and treatment of overweight; thus insight in how underestimation of body size develops and tracks through the childhood years is needed. The aim of the present study was therefore to examine stability in children’s underestimation of body size, exploring predictors of underestimation over time. The prospective path from underestimation to BMI was also tested. In a Norwegian cohort of 6 year olds, followed up at ages 8 and 10 (analysis sample: n = 793 body size estimation was captured by the Children’s Body Image Scale, height and weight were measured and BMI calculated. Overall, children were more likely to underestimate than overestimate their body size. Individual stability in underestimation was modest, but significant. Higher BMI predicted future underestimation, even when previous underestimation was adjusted for, but there was no evidence for the opposite direction of influence. Boys were more likely than girls to underestimate their body size at ages 8 and 10 (age 8: 38.0% vs. 24.1%; Age 10: 57.9% vs. 30.8% and showed a steeper increase in underestimation with age compared to girls. In conclusion, the majority of 6, 8, and 10-year olds correctly estimate their body size (prevalence ranging from 40 to 70% depending on age and gender, although a substantial portion perceived themselves to be thinner than they actually were. Higher BMI forecasted future underestimation, but underestimation did not increase the risk for excessive weight gain in middle childhood.

  18. Systematic modeling for free stators of rotary - Piezoelectric ultrasonic motors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mojallali, Hamed; Amini, Rouzbeh; Izadi-Zamanabadi, Roozbeh

    2007-01-01

    An equivalent circuit model with complex elements is presented in this paper to describe the free stator model of traveling wave piezoelectric motors. The mechanical, dielectric and piezoelectric losses associated with the vibrator are considered by introducing the imaginary part to the equivalent...... circuit elements. The determination of the complex circuit elements is performed by using a new simple iterative method. The presented method uses information about five points of the stator admittance measurements. The accuracy of the model in fitting to the experimental data is verified by using...

  19. Excised Abdominoplasty Material as a Systematic Plastic Surgical Training Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Erol Demirseren

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Achieving a level of technical skill and confidence in surgical operations is the main goal of plastic surgical training. Operating rooms were accepted as the practical teaching venues of the traditional apprenticeship model. However, increased patient population, time, and ethical and legal considerations made preoperation room practical work a must for plastic surgical training. There are several plastic surgical teaching models and simulators which are very useful in preoperation room practical training and the evaluation of plastic surgery residents. The full thickness skin with its vascular network excised in abdominoplasty procedures is an easily obtainable real human tissue which could be used as a training model in plastic surgery.

  20. Using logic model methods in systematic review synthesis: describing complex pathways in referral management interventions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baxter, Susan K; Blank, Lindsay; Woods, Helen Buckley; Payne, Nick; Rimmer, Melanie; Goyder, Elizabeth

    2014-05-10

    There is increasing interest in innovative methods to carry out systematic reviews of complex interventions. Theory-based approaches, such as logic models, have been suggested as a means of providing additional insights beyond that obtained via conventional review methods. This paper reports the use of an innovative method which combines systematic review processes with logic model techniques to synthesise a broad range of literature. The potential value of the model produced was explored with stakeholders. The review identified 295 papers that met the inclusion criteria. The papers consisted of 141 intervention studies and 154 non-intervention quantitative and qualitative articles. A logic model was systematically built from these studies. The model outlines interventions, short term outcomes, moderating and mediating factors and long term demand management outcomes and impacts. Interventions were grouped into typologies of practitioner education, process change, system change, and patient intervention. Short-term outcomes identified that may result from these interventions were changed physician or patient knowledge, beliefs or attitudes and also interventions related to changed doctor-patient interaction. A range of factors which may influence whether these outcomes lead to long term change were detailed. Demand management outcomes and intended impacts included content of referral, rate of referral, and doctor or patient satisfaction. The logic model details evidence and assumptions underpinning the complex pathway from interventions to demand management impact. The method offers a useful addition to systematic review methodologies. PROSPERO registration number: CRD42013004037.

  1. The application of the heuristic-systematic processing model to treatment decision making about prostate cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steginga, Suzanne K; Occhipinti, Stefano

    2004-01-01

    The study investigated the utility of the Heuristic-Systematic Processing Model as a framework for the investigation of patient decision making. A total of 111 men recently diagnosed with localized prostate cancer were assessed using Verbal Protocol Analysis and self-report measures. Study variables included men's use of nonsystematic and systematic information processing, desire for involvement in decision making, and the individual differences of health locus of control, tolerance of ambiguity, and decision-related uncertainty. Most men (68%) preferred that decision making be shared equally between them and their doctor. Men's use of the expert opinion heuristic was related to men's verbal reports of decisional uncertainty and having a positive orientation to their doctor and medical care; a desire for greater involvement in decision making was predicted by a high internal locus of health control. Trends were observed for systematic information processing to increase when the heuristic strategy used was negatively affect laden and when men were uncertain about the probabilities for cure and side effects. There was a trend for decreased systematic processing when the expert opinion heuristic was used. Findings were consistent with the Heuristic-Systematic Processing Model and suggest that this model has utility for future research in applied decision making about health.

  2. Systematic simulations of modified gravity: symmetron and dilaton models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brax, Philippe; Davis, Anne-Christine; Li, Baojiu; Winther, Hans A.; Zhao, Gong-Bo

    2012-01-01

    We study the linear and nonlinear structure formation in the dilaton and symmetron models of modified gravity using a generic parameterisation which describes a large class of scenarios using only a few parameters, such as the coupling between the scalar field and the matter, and the range of the scalar force on very large scales. For this we have modified the N-body simulation code ECOSMOG, which is a variant of RAMSES working in modified gravity scenarios, to perform a set of 110 simulations for different models and parameter values, including the default ΛCDM. These simulations enable us to explore a large portion of the parameter space. We have studied the effects of modified gravity on the matter power spectrum and mass function, and found a rich and interesting phenomenology where the difference with the ΛCDM template cannot be reproduced by a linear analysis even on scales as large as k ∼ 0.05 hMpc −1 . Our results show the full effect of screening on nonlinear structure formation and the associated deviation from ΛCDM. We also investigate how differences in the force mediated by the scalar field in modified gravity models lead to qualitatively different features for the nonlinear power spectrum and the halo mass function, and how varying the individual model parameters changes these observables. The differences are particularly large in the nonlinear power spectra whose shapes for f(R), dilaton and symmetron models vary greatly, and where the characteristic bump around 1 hMpc −1 of f(R) models is preserved for symmetrons, whereas an increase on much smaller scales is particular to symmetrons. No bump is present for dilatons where a flattening of the power spectrum takes place on small scales. These deviations from ΛCDM and the differences between modified gravity models, such as dilatons and symmetrons, could be tested with future surveys

  3. A Systematic Review of Evidence for the Clubhouse Model of Psychosocial Rehabilitation

    OpenAIRE

    McKay, Colleen; Nugent, Katie L.; Johnsen, Matthew; Eaton, William W.; Lidz, Charles W.

    2016-01-01

    The Clubhouse Model has been in existence for over sixty-five years; however, a review that synthesizes the literature on the model is needed. The current study makes use of the existing research to conduct a systematic review of articles providing a comprehensive understanding of what is known about the Clubhouse Model, to identify the best evidence available, as well as areas that would benefit from further study. Findings are summarized and evidence is classified by outcome domains. Fifty-...

  4. Language issues, an underestimated danger in major hazard control?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindhout, Paul; Ale, Ben J M

    2009-12-15

    Language issues are problems with communication via speech, signs, gestures or their written equivalents. They may result from poor reading and writing skills, a mix of foreign languages and other circumstances. Language issues are not picked up as a safety risk on the shop floor by current safety management systems. These safety risks need to be identified, acknowledged, quantified and prioritized in order to allow risk reducing measures to be taken. This study investigates the nature of language issues related danger in literature, by experiment and by a survey among the Seveso II companies in the Netherlands. Based on human error frequencies, and on the contents of accident investigation reports, the risks associated with language issues were ranked. Accident investigation method causal factor categories were found not to be sufficiently representative for the type and magnitude of these risks. Readability of safety related documents used by the companies was investigated and found to be poor in many cases. Interviews among regulators and a survey among Seveso II companies were used to identify the gap between the language issue related dangers found in literature and current best practices. This study demonstrates by means of triangulation with different investigative methods that language issue related risks are indeed underestimated. A recommended coarse of action in order to arrive at appropriate measures is presented.

  5. Flat epithelial atypia and atypical ductal hyperplasia: carcinoma underestimation rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ingegnoli, Anna; d'Aloia, Cecilia; Frattaruolo, Antonia; Pallavera, Lara; Martella, Eugenia; Crisi, Girolamo; Zompatori, Maurizio

    2010-01-01

    This study was carried out to determine the underestimation rate of carcinoma upon surgical biopsy after a diagnosis of flat epithelial atypia and atypical ductal hyperplasia and 11-gauge vacuum-assisted breast biopsy. A retrospective review was conducted of 476 vacuum-assisted breast biopsy performed from May 2005 to January 2007 and a total of 70 cases of atypia were identified. Fifty cases (71%) were categorized as pure atypical ductal hyperplasia, 18 (26%) as pure flat epithelial atypia and two (3%) as concomitant flat epithelial atypia and atypical ductal hyperplasia. Each group were compared with the subsequent open surgical specimens. Surgical biopsy was performed in 44 patients with atypical ductal hyperplasia, 15 patients with flat epithelial atypia, and two patients with flat epithelial atypia and atypical ductal hyperplasia. Five cases of atypical ductal hyperplasia were upgraded to ductal carcinoma in situ, three cases of flat epithelial atypia yielded one ductal carcinoma in situ and two cases of invasive ductal carcinoma, and one case of flat epithelial atypia/atypical ductal hyperplasia had invasive ductal carcinoma. The overall rate of malignancy was 16% for atypical ductal hyperplasia (including flat epithelial atypia/atypical ductal hyperplasia patients) and 20% for flat epithelial atypia. The presence of flat epithelial atypia and atypical ductal hyperplasia at biopsy requires careful consideration, and surgical excision should be suggested.

  6. Are We Underestimating Microplastic Contamination in Aquatic Environments?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conkle, Jeremy L.; Báez Del Valle, Christian D.; Turner, Jeffrey W.

    2018-01-01

    Plastic debris, specifically microplastic in the aquatic environment, is an escalating environmental crisis. Efforts at national scales to reduce or ban microplastics in personal care products are starting to pay off, but this will not affect those materials already in the environment or those that result from unregulated products and materials. To better inform future microplastic research and mitigation efforts this study (1) evaluates methods currently used to quantify microplastics in the environment and (2) characterizes the concentration and size distribution of microplastics in a variety of products. In this study, 50 published aquatic surveys were reviewed and they demonstrated that most ( 80%) only account for plastics ≥ 300 μm in diameter. In addition, we surveyed 770 personal care products to determine the occurrence, concentration and size distribution of polyethylene microbeads. Particle concentrations ranged from 1.9 to 71.9 mg g-1 of product or 1649 to 31,266 particles g-1 of product. The large majority ( > 95%) of particles in products surveyed were less than the 300 μm minimum diameter, indicating that previous environmental surveys could be underestimating microplastic contamination. To account for smaller particles as well as microfibers from synthetic textiles, we strongly recommend that future surveys consider methods that materials < 300 μm in diameter.

  7. Language issues, an underestimated danger in major hazard control?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lindhout, Paul, E-mail: plindhout@minszw.nl [Ministry of Social Affairs and Employment, AI-MHC, Anna van Hannoverstraat 4, P.O. Box 90801, 2509 LV The Hague (Netherlands); Ale, Ben J.M. [Delft University of Technology, TBM-Safety Science Group, Jaffalaan 5, 2628 BX Delft (Netherlands)

    2009-12-15

    Language issues are problems with communication via speech, signs, gestures or their written equivalents. They may result from poor reading and writing skills, a mix of foreign languages and other circumstances. Language issues are not picked up as a safety risk on the shop floor by current safety management systems. These safety risks need to be identified, acknowledged, quantified and prioritised in order to allow risk reducing measures to be taken. This study investigates the nature of language issues related danger in literature, by experiment and by a survey among the Seveso II companies in the Netherlands. Based on human error frequencies, and on the contents of accident investigation reports, the risks associated with language issues were ranked. Accident investigation method causal factor categories were found not to be sufficiently representative for the type and magnitude of these risks. Readability of safety related documents used by the companies was investigated and found to be poor in many cases. Interviews among regulators and a survey among Seveso II companies were used to identify the gap between the language issue related dangers found in literature and current best practices. This study demonstrates by means of triangulation with different investigative methods that language issue related risks are indeed underestimated. A recommended coarse of action in order to arrive at appropriate measures is presented.

  8. Language issues, an underestimated danger in major hazard control?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lindhout, Paul; Ale, Ben J.M.

    2009-01-01

    Language issues are problems with communication via speech, signs, gestures or their written equivalents. They may result from poor reading and writing skills, a mix of foreign languages and other circumstances. Language issues are not picked up as a safety risk on the shop floor by current safety management systems. These safety risks need to be identified, acknowledged, quantified and prioritised in order to allow risk reducing measures to be taken. This study investigates the nature of language issues related danger in literature, by experiment and by a survey among the Seveso II companies in the Netherlands. Based on human error frequencies, and on the contents of accident investigation reports, the risks associated with language issues were ranked. Accident investigation method causal factor categories were found not to be sufficiently representative for the type and magnitude of these risks. Readability of safety related documents used by the companies was investigated and found to be poor in many cases. Interviews among regulators and a survey among Seveso II companies were used to identify the gap between the language issue related dangers found in literature and current best practices. This study demonstrates by means of triangulation with different investigative methods that language issue related risks are indeed underestimated. A recommended coarse of action in order to arrive at appropriate measures is presented.

  9. Is hyperthyroidism underestimated in pregnancy and misdiagnosed as hyperemesis gravidarum?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luetic, Ana Tikvica; Miskovic, Berivoj

    2010-10-01

    Thyroid changes are considered to be normal events that happen as a large maternal multiorganic adjustment to pregnancy. However, hyperthyroidism occurs in pregnancy with clinical presentation similar to hyperemesis gravidarum (HG) and pregnancy itself. Moreover, 10% of women with HG will continue to have symptoms throughout the pregnancy suggesting that the underlying cause might not be elevation of human chorionic gonadotropin in the first trimester. Variable frequency of both hyperthyroidism and HG worldwide might suggest the puzzlement of inclusion criteria for both diagnoses enhanced by the alternation of thyroid hormone levels assessed in normal pregnancy. Increased number of hyperthyroidism among women population without the expected rise in gestational hyperthyroidism encouraged us for creating the hypotheses that hyperthyroidism could be underestimated in normal pregnancy and even misdiagnosed as HG. This hypothesis, if confirmed, might have beneficial clinical implications, such as better detection of hyperthyroidism in pregnancies, application of therapy when needed with the reduction of maternal or fetal consequences. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Insights on the impact of systematic model errors on data assimilation performance in changing catchments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pathiraja, S.; Anghileri, D.; Burlando, P.; Sharma, A.; Marshall, L.; Moradkhani, H.

    2018-03-01

    The global prevalence of rapid and extensive land use change necessitates hydrologic modelling methodologies capable of handling non-stationarity. This is particularly true in the context of Hydrologic Forecasting using Data Assimilation. Data Assimilation has been shown to dramatically improve forecast skill in hydrologic and meteorological applications, although such improvements are conditional on using bias-free observations and model simulations. A hydrologic model calibrated to a particular set of land cover conditions has the potential to produce biased simulations when the catchment is disturbed. This paper sheds new light on the impacts of bias or systematic errors in hydrologic data assimilation, in the context of forecasting in catchments with changing land surface conditions and a model calibrated to pre-change conditions. We posit that in such cases, the impact of systematic model errors on assimilation or forecast quality is dependent on the inherent prediction uncertainty that persists even in pre-change conditions. Through experiments on a range of catchments, we develop a conceptual relationship between total prediction uncertainty and the impacts of land cover changes on the hydrologic regime to demonstrate how forecast quality is affected when using state estimation Data Assimilation with no modifications to account for land cover changes. This work shows that systematic model errors as a result of changing or changed catchment conditions do not always necessitate adjustments to the modelling or assimilation methodology, for instance through re-calibration of the hydrologic model, time varying model parameters or revised offline/online bias estimation.

  11. Systematic approach for the identification of process reference models

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Van Der Merwe, A

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available and make it economically viable. In the identification of core elements within the process reference model, the focus is often on the end-product and not on the procedure used to identify the elements. As often proved in development of projects, there is a...

  12. A systematic review of health manpower forecasting models.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Martins-Coelho, G.; Greuningen, M. van; Barros, H.; Batenburg, R.

    2011-01-01

    Context: Health manpower planning (HMP) aims at matching health manpower (HM) supply to the population’s health requirements. To achieve this, HMP needs information on future HM supply and requirement (S&R). This is estimated by several different forecasting models (FMs). In this paper, we review

  13. Systematics of quark mass matrices in the standard electroweak model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frampton, P.H.; Jarlskog, C.; Stockholm Univ.

    1985-01-01

    It is shown that the quark mass matrices in the standard electroweak model satisfy the empirical relation M = M' + O(lambda 2 ), where M(M') refers to the mass matrix of the charge 2/3 (-1/3) quarks normalized to the largest eigenvalue, msub(t) (msub(b)), and lambda = Vsub(us) approx.= 0.22. (orig.)

  14. Accident Analysis Methods and Models — a Systematic Literature Review

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wienen, Hans Christian Augustijn; Bukhsh, Faiza Allah; Vriezekolk, E.; Wieringa, Roelf J.

    2017-01-01

    As part of our co-operation with the Telecommunication Agency of the Netherlands, we want to formulate an accident analysis method and model for use in incidents in telecommunications that cause service unavailability. In order to not re-invent the wheel, we wanted to first get an overview of all

  15. Confounding environmental colour and distribution shape leads to underestimation of population extinction risk.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mike S Fowler

    Full Text Available The colour of environmental variability influences the size of population fluctuations when filtered through density dependent dynamics, driving extinction risk through dynamical resonance. Slow fluctuations (low frequencies dominate in red environments, rapid fluctuations (high frequencies in blue environments and white environments are purely random (no frequencies dominate. Two methods are commonly employed to generate the coloured spatial and/or temporal stochastic (environmental series used in combination with population (dynamical feedback models: autoregressive [AR(1] and sinusoidal (1/f models. We show that changing environmental colour from white to red with 1/f models, and from white to red or blue with AR(1 models, generates coloured environmental series that are not normally distributed at finite time-scales, potentially confounding comparison with normally distributed white noise models. Increasing variability of sample Skewness and Kurtosis and decreasing mean Kurtosis of these series alter the frequency distribution shape of the realised values of the coloured stochastic processes. These changes in distribution shape alter patterns in the probability of single and series of extreme conditions. We show that the reduced extinction risk for undercompensating (slow growing populations in red environments previously predicted with traditional 1/f methods is an artefact of changes in the distribution shapes of the environmental series. This is demonstrated by comparison with coloured series controlled to be normally distributed using spectral mimicry. Changes in the distribution shape that arise using traditional methods lead to underestimation of extinction risk in normally distributed, red 1/f environments. AR(1 methods also underestimate extinction risks in traditionally generated red environments. This work synthesises previous results and provides further insight into the processes driving extinction risk in model populations. We

  16. Confounding environmental colour and distribution shape leads to underestimation of population extinction risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fowler, Mike S; Ruokolainen, Lasse

    2013-01-01

    The colour of environmental variability influences the size of population fluctuations when filtered through density dependent dynamics, driving extinction risk through dynamical resonance. Slow fluctuations (low frequencies) dominate in red environments, rapid fluctuations (high frequencies) in blue environments and white environments are purely random (no frequencies dominate). Two methods are commonly employed to generate the coloured spatial and/or temporal stochastic (environmental) series used in combination with population (dynamical feedback) models: autoregressive [AR(1)] and sinusoidal (1/f) models. We show that changing environmental colour from white to red with 1/f models, and from white to red or blue with AR(1) models, generates coloured environmental series that are not normally distributed at finite time-scales, potentially confounding comparison with normally distributed white noise models. Increasing variability of sample Skewness and Kurtosis and decreasing mean Kurtosis of these series alter the frequency distribution shape of the realised values of the coloured stochastic processes. These changes in distribution shape alter patterns in the probability of single and series of extreme conditions. We show that the reduced extinction risk for undercompensating (slow growing) populations in red environments previously predicted with traditional 1/f methods is an artefact of changes in the distribution shapes of the environmental series. This is demonstrated by comparison with coloured series controlled to be normally distributed using spectral mimicry. Changes in the distribution shape that arise using traditional methods lead to underestimation of extinction risk in normally distributed, red 1/f environments. AR(1) methods also underestimate extinction risks in traditionally generated red environments. This work synthesises previous results and provides further insight into the processes driving extinction risk in model populations. We must let

  17. Comparison of two stochastic techniques for reliable urban runoff prediction by modeling systematic errors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Del Giudice, Dario; Löwe, Roland; Madsen, Henrik

    2015-01-01

    from different fields and have not yet been compared in environmental modeling. To compare the two approaches, we develop a unifying terminology, evaluate them theoretically, and apply them to conceptual rainfall-runoff modeling in the same drainage system. Our results show that both approaches can......In urban rainfall-runoff, commonly applied statistical techniques for uncertainty quantification mostly ignore systematic output errors originating from simplified models and erroneous inputs. Consequently, the resulting predictive uncertainty is often unreliable. Our objective is to present two...... approaches which use stochastic processes to describe systematic deviations and to discuss their advantages and drawbacks for urban drainage modeling. The two methodologies are an external bias description (EBD) and an internal noise description (IND, also known as stochastic gray-box modeling). They emerge...

  18. Topic Modeling in Sentiment Analysis: A Systematic Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Toqir Ahmad Rana

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available With the expansion and acceptance of Word Wide Web, sentiment analysis has become progressively popular research area in information retrieval and web data analysis. Due to the huge amount of user-generated contents over blogs, forums, social media, etc., sentiment analysis has attracted researchers both in academia and industry, since it deals with the extraction of opinions and sentiments. In this paper, we have presented a review of topic modeling, especially LDA-based techniques, in sentiment analysis. We have presented a detailed analysis of diverse approaches and techniques, and compared the accuracy of different systems among them. The results of different approaches have been summarized, analyzed and presented in a sophisticated fashion. This is the really effort to explore different topic modeling techniques in the capacity of sentiment analysis and imparting a comprehensive comparison among them.

  19. A Systematic Modelling Framework for Phase Transfer Catalyst Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Anantpinijwatna, Amata; Sales-Cruz, Mauricio; Hyung Kim, Sun

    2016-01-01

    Phase-transfer catalyst systems contain two liquid phases, with a catalyst (PTC) that transfers between the phases, driving product formation in one phase and being regenerated in the other phase. Typically the reaction involves neutral species in an organic phase and regeneration involves ions i....... The application of the framework is made to two cases in order to highlight the performance and issues of activity coefficient models for predicting design and operation and the effects when different organic solvents are employed....

  20. Hydrocarbon Fuel Thermal Performance Modeling based on Systematic Measurement and Comprehensive Chromatographic Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-07-31

    distribution unlimited Hydrocarbon Fuel Thermal Performance Modeling based on Systematic Measurement and Comprehensive Chromatographic Analysis Matthew...vital importance for hydrocarbon -fueled propulsion systems: fuel thermal performance as indicated by physical and chemical effects of cooling passage... analysis . The selection and acquisition of a set of chemically diverse fuels is pivotal for a successful outcome since test method validation and

  1. The Psychology Department Model Advisement Procedure: A Comprehensive, Systematic Approach to Career Development Advisement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howell-Carter, Marya; Nieman-Gonder, Jennifer; Pellegrino, Jennifer; Catapano, Brittani; Hutzel, Kimberly

    2016-01-01

    The MAP (Model Advisement Procedure) is a comprehensive, systematic approach to developmental student advisement. The MAP was implemented to improve advisement consistency, improve student preparation for internships/senior projects, increase career exploration, reduce career uncertainty, and, ultimately, improve student satisfaction with the…

  2. Systematic Review of Health Economic Impact Evaluations of Risk Prediction Models : Stop Developing, Start Evaluating

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Giessen, Anoukh; Peters, Jaime; Wilcher, Britni; Hyde, Chris; Moons, Carl; de Wit, Ardine; Koffijberg, Erik

    2017-01-01

    Background: Although health economic evaluations (HEEs) are increasingly common for therapeutic interventions, they appear to be rare for the use of risk prediction models (PMs). Objectives: To evaluate the current state of HEEs of PMs by performing a comprehensive systematic review. Methods: Four

  3. Systematic Analysis of Quantitative Logic Model Ensembles Predicts Drug Combination Effects on Cell Signaling Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-08-27

    bovine serum albumin (BSA) diluted to the amount corresponding to that in the media of the stimulated cells. Phospho-JNK comprises two isoforms whose...information accompanies this paper on the CPT: Pharmacometrics & Systems Pharmacology website (http://www.wileyonlinelibrary.com/psp4) Systematic Analysis of Quantitative Logic Model Morris et al. 553 www.wileyonlinelibrary/psp4

  4. Tundra water budget and implications of precipitation underestimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liljedahl, Anna K; Hinzman, Larry D; Kane, Douglas L; Oechel, Walter C; Tweedie, Craig E; Zona, Donatella

    2017-08-01

    Difficulties in obtaining accurate precipitation measurements have limited meaningful hydrologic assessment for over a century due to performance challenges of conventional snowfall and rainfall gauges in windy environments. Here, we compare snowfall observations and bias adjusted snowfall to end-of-winter snow accumulation measurements on the ground for 16 years (1999-2014) and assess the implication of precipitation underestimation on the water balance for a low-gradient tundra wetland near Utqiagvik (formerly Barrow), Alaska (2007-2009). In agreement with other studies, and not accounting for sublimation, conventional snowfall gauges captured 23-56% of end-of-winter snow accumulation. Once snowfall and rainfall are bias adjusted, long-term annual precipitation estimates more than double (from 123 to 274 mm), highlighting the risk of studies using conventional or unadjusted precipitation that dramatically under-represent water balance components. Applying conventional precipitation information to the water balance analysis produced consistent storage deficits (79 to 152 mm) that were all larger than the largest actual deficit (75 mm), which was observed in the unusually low rainfall summer of 2007. Year-to-year variability in adjusted rainfall (±33 mm) was larger than evapotranspiration (±13 mm). Measured interannual variability in partitioning of snow into runoff (29% in 2008 to 68% in 2009) in years with similar end-of-winter snow accumulation (180 and 164 mm, respectively) highlights the importance of the previous summer's rainfall (25 and 60 mm, respectively) on spring runoff production. Incorrect representation of precipitation can therefore have major implications for Arctic water budget descriptions that in turn can alter estimates of carbon and energy fluxes.

  5. THE TEXTBOOK AS A PRODUCT OF SCHOOL GEOGRAPHY: underestimated work?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Eustáquio de Sene

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT: This article will address the textbook as a specific cultural production of school disciplines having as reference the theoretical debate that opposed the conceptions of "didactic transposition" (CHEVALLARD, 1997 and "school culture" (CHERVEL, 1990. Based on this debate, characteristic of the curriculum field, this article aims to understand why, historically, the textbook has been underestimated and even considered a "less important work” within the limits of the academy (BITTENCOURT, 2004. The examples used will always be of the Geography discipline – both school and academic, as well as the relations between this two fields – having in mind their "multiplicity of paradigms" (LESTEGÁS, 2002. The analysis will also take into account the historic process of institutionalization of academic Geography based on "Layton’s stages" (GOODSON, 2005. RESUMO: Este artigo abordará o livro didático como uma produção cultural específica das disciplinas escolares tendo como referência o debate teórico que opõem as concepções de “transposição didática” (CHEVALLARD, 1997 e de “cultura escolar” (CHERVEL, 1990. Com base em tal debate, próprio do campo curricular, procurará compreender porque historicamente o livro didático tem sido pouco valorizado e até mesmo considerado uma “obra menor” nos limites da academia (BITTENCOURT, 2004. Os exemplos utilizados serão sempre da disciplina Geografia – tanto a escolar quanto a acadêmica, assim como das relações entre ambas – tendo em vista sua “multiplicidade de paradigmas” (LESTEGÁS, 2002. A análise também levará em conta o histórico processo de institucionalização da Geografia acadêmica com base nos “estágios de Layton” (GOODSON, 2005.

  6. The role of underestimating body size for self-esteem and self-efficacy among grade five children in Canada.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maximova, Katerina; Khan, Mohammad K A; Austin, S Bryn; Kirk, Sara F L; Veugelers, Paul J

    2015-10-01

    Underestimating body size hinders healthy behavior modification needed to prevent obesity. However, initiatives to improve body size misperceptions may have detrimental consequences on self-esteem and self-efficacy. Using sex-specific multiple mixed-effect logistic regression models, we examined the association of underestimating versus accurate body size perceptions with self-esteem and self-efficacy in a provincially representative sample of 5075 grade five school children. Body size perceptions were defined as the standardized difference between the body mass index (BMI, from measured height and weight) and self-perceived body size (Stunkard body rating scale). Self-esteem and self-efficacy for physical activity and healthy eating were self-reported. Most of overweight boys and girls (91% and 83%); and most of obese boys and girls (93% and 90%) underestimated body size. Underestimating weight was associated with greater self-efficacy for physical activity and healthy eating among normal-weight children (odds ratio: 1.9 and 1.6 for boys, 1.5 and 1.4 for girls) and greater self-esteem among overweight and obese children (odds ratio: 2.0 and 6.2 for boys, 2.0 and 3.4 for girls). Results highlight the importance of developing optimal intervention strategies as part of targeted obesity prevention efforts that de-emphasize the focus on body weight, while improving body size perceptions. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. A Systematic Approach to Modelling Change Processes in Construction Projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ibrahim Motawa

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Modelling change processes within construction projects isessential to implement changes efficiently. Incomplete informationon the project variables at the early stages of projects leads toinadequate knowledge of future states and imprecision arisingfrom ambiguity in project parameters. This lack of knowledge isconsidered among the main source of changes in construction.Change identification and evaluation, in addition to predictingits impacts on project parameters, can help in minimising thedisruptive effects of changes. This paper presents a systematicapproach to modelling change process within construction projectsthat helps improve change identification and evaluation. Theapproach represents the key decisions required to implementchanges. The requirements of an effective change processare presented first. The variables defined for efficient changeassessment and diagnosis are then presented. Assessmentof construction changes requires an analysis for the projectcharacteristics that lead to change and also analysis of therelationship between the change causes and effects. The paperconcludes that, at the early stages of a project, projects with a highlikelihood of change occurrence should have a control mechanismover the project characteristics that have high influence on theproject. It also concludes, for the relationship between changecauses and effects, the multiple causes of change should bemodelled in a way to enable evaluating the change effects moreaccurately. The proposed approach is the framework for tacklingsuch conclusions and can be used for evaluating change casesdepending on the available information at the early stages ofconstruction projects.

  8. Effects of waveform model systematics on the interpretation of GW150914

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abbott, B. P.; Abbott, R.; Abbott, T. D.; Abernathy, M. R.; Acernese, F.; Ackley, K.; Adams, C.; Adams, T.; Addesso, P.; Adhikari, R. X.; Adya, V. B.; Affeldt, C.; Agathos, M.; Agatsuma, K.; Aggarwal, N.; Aguiar, O. D.; Aiello, L.; Ain, A.; Ajith, P.; Allen, B.; Allocca, A.; Altin, P. A.; Ananyeva, A.; Anderson, S. B.; Anderson, W. G.; Appert, S.; Arai, K.; Araya, M. C.; Areeda, J. S.; Arnaud, N.; Arun, K. G.; Ascenzi, S.; Ashton, G.; Ast, M.; Aston, S. M.; Astone, P.; Aufmuth, P.; Aulbert, C.; Avila-Alvarez, A.; Babak, S.; Bacon, P.; Bader, M. K. M.; Baker, P. T.; Baldaccini, F.; Ballardin, G.; Ballmer, S. W.; Barayoga, J. C.; E Barclay, S.; Barish, B. C.; Barker, D.; Barone, F.; Barr, B.; Barsotti, L.; Barsuglia, M.; Barta, D.; Bartlett, J.; Bartos, I.; Bassiri, R.; Basti, A.; Batch, J. C.; Baune, C.; Bavigadda, V.; Bazzan, M.; Beer, C.; Bejger, M.; Belahcene, I.; Belgin, M.; Bell, A. S.; Berger, B. K.; Bergmann, G.; Berry, C. P. L.; Bersanetti, D.; Bertolini, A.; Betzwieser, J.; Bhagwat, S.; Bhandare, R.; Bilenko, I. A.; Billingsley, G.; Billman, C. R.; Birch, J.; Birney, R.; Birnholtz, O.; Biscans, S.; Bisht, A.; Bitossi, M.; Biwer, C.; Bizouard, M. A.; Blackburn, J. K.; Blackman, J.; Blair, C. D.; Blair, D. G.; Blair, R. M.; Bloemen, S.; Bock, O.; Boer, M.; Bogaert, G.; Bohe, A.; Bondu, F.; Bonnand, R.; Boom, B. A.; Bork, R.; Boschi, V.; Bose, S.; Bouffanais, Y.; Bozzi, A.; Bradaschia, C.; Brady, P. R.; Braginsky, V. B.; Branchesi, M.; E Brau, J.; Briant, T.; Brillet, A.; Brinkmann, M.; Brisson, V.; Brockill, P.; E Broida, J.; Brooks, A. F.; Brown, D. A.; Brown, D. D.; Brown, N. M.; Brunett, S.; Buchanan, C. C.; Buikema, A.; Bulik, T.; Bulten, H. J.; Buonanno, A.; Buskulic, D.; Buy, C.; Byer, R. L.; Cabero, M.; Cadonati, L.; Cagnoli, G.; Cahillane, C.; Calderón Bustillo, J.; Callister, T. A.; Calloni, E.; Camp, J. B.; Cannon, K. C.; Cao, H.; Cao, J.; Capano, C. D.; Capocasa, E.; Carbognani, F.; Caride, S.; Casanueva Diaz, J.; Casentini, C.; Caudill, S.; Cavaglià, M.; Cavalier, F.; Cavalieri, R.; Cella, G.; Cepeda, C. B.; Cerboni Baiardi, L.; Cerretani, G.; Cesarini, E.; Chamberlin, S. J.; Chan, M.; Chao, S.; Charlton, P.; Chassande-Mottin, E.; Cheeseboro, B. D.; Chen, H. Y.; Chen, Y.; Cheng, H.-P.; Chincarini, A.; Chiummo, A.; Chmiel, T.; Cho, H. S.; Cho, M.; Chow, J. H.; Christensen, N.; Chu, Q.; Chua, A. J. K.; Chua, S.; Chung, S.; Ciani, G.; Clara, F.; Clark, J. A.; Cleva, F.; Cocchieri, C.; Coccia, E.; Cohadon, P.-F.; Colla, A.; Collette, C. G.; Cominsky, L.; Constancio, M., Jr.; Conti, L.; Cooper, S. J.; Corbitt, T. R.; Cornish, N.; Corsi, A.; Cortese, S.; Costa, C. A.; Coughlin, M. W.; Coughlin, S. B.; Coulon, J.-P.; Countryman, S. T.; Couvares, P.; Covas, P. B.; E Cowan, E.; Coward, D. M.; Cowart, M. J.; Coyne, D. C.; Coyne, R.; E Creighton, J. D.; Creighton, T. D.; Cripe, J.; Crowder, S. G.; Cullen, T. J.; Cumming, A.; Cunningham, L.; Cuoco, E.; Dal Canton, T.; Danilishin, S. L.; D'Antonio, S.; Danzmann, K.; Dasgupta, A.; Da Silva Costa, C. F.; Dattilo, V.; Dave, I.; Davier, M.; Davies, G. S.; Davis, D.; Daw, E. J.; Day, B.; Day, R.; De, S.; DeBra, D.; Debreczeni, G.; Degallaix, J.; De Laurentis, M.; Deléglise, S.; Del Pozzo, W.; Denker, T.; Dent, T.; Dergachev, V.; De Rosa, R.; DeRosa, R. T.; DeSalvo, R.; Devenson, J.; Devine, R. C.; Dhurandhar, S.; Díaz, M. C.; Di Fiore, L.; Di Giovanni, M.; Di Girolamo, T.; Di Lieto, A.; Di Pace, S.; Di Palma, I.; Di Virgilio, A.; Doctor, Z.; Dolique, V.; Donovan, F.; Dooley, K. L.; Doravari, S.; Dorrington, I.; Douglas, R.; Dovale Álvarez, M.; Downes, T. P.; Drago, M.; Drever, R. W. P.; Driggers, J. C.; Du, Z.; Ducrot, M.; E Dwyer, S.; Edo, T. B.; Edwards, M. C.; Effler, A.; Eggenstein, H.-B.; Ehrens, P.; Eichholz, J.; Eikenberry, S. S.; Eisenstein, R. A.; Essick, R. C.; Etienne, Z.; Etzel, T.; Evans, M.; Evans, T. M.; Everett, R.; Factourovich, M.; Fafone, V.; Fair, H.; Fairhurst, S.; Fan, X.; Farinon, S.; Farr, B.; Farr, W. M.; Fauchon-Jones, E. J.; Favata, M.; Fays, M.; Fehrmann, H.; Fejer, M. M.; Fernández Galiana, A.; Ferrante, I.; Ferreira, E. C.; Ferrini, F.; Fidecaro, F.; Fiori, I.; Fiorucci, D.; Fisher, R. P.; Flaminio, R.; Fletcher, M.; Fong, H.; Forsyth, S. S.; Fournier, J.-D.; Frasca, S.; Frasconi, F.; Frei, Z.; Freise, A.; Frey, R.; Frey, V.; Fries, E. M.; Fritschel, P.; Frolov, V. V.; Fulda, P.; Fyffe, M.; Gabbard, H.; Gadre, B. U.; Gaebel, S. M.; Gair, J. R.; Gammaitoni, L.; Gaonkar, S. G.; Garufi, F.; Gaur, G.; Gayathri, V.; Gehrels, N.; Gemme, G.; Genin, E.; Gennai, A.; George, J.; Gergely, L.; Germain, V.; Ghonge, S.; Ghosh, Abhirup; Ghosh, Archisman; Ghosh, S.; Giaime, J. A.; Giardina, K. D.; Giazotto, A.; Gill, K.; Glaefke, A.; Goetz, E.; Goetz, R.; Gondan, L.; González, G.; Gonzalez Castro, J. M.; Gopakumar, A.; Gorodetsky, M. L.; E Gossan, S.; Gosselin, M.; Gouaty, R.; Grado, A.; Graef, C.; Granata, M.; Grant, A.; Gras, S.; Gray, C.; Greco, G.; Green, A. C.; Groot, P.; Grote, H.; Grunewald, S.; Guidi, G. M.; Guo, X.; Gupta, A.; Gupta, M. K.; E Gushwa, K.; Gustafson, E. K.; Gustafson, R.; Hacker, J. J.; Hall, B. R.; Hall, E. D.; Hammond, G.; Haney, M.; Hanke, M. M.; Hanks, J.; Hanna, C.; Hannam, M. D.; Hanson, J.; Hardwick, T.; Harms, J.; Harry, G. M.; Harry, I. W.; Hart, M. J.; Hartman, M. T.; Haster, C.-J.; Haughian, K.; Healy, J.; Heidmann, A.; Heintze, M. C.; Heitmann, H.; Hello, P.; Hemming, G.; Hendry, M.; Heng, I. S.; Hennig, J.; Henry, J.; Heptonstall, A. W.; Heurs, M.; Hild, S.; Hoak, D.; Hofman, D.; Holt, K.; E Holz, D.; Hopkins, P.; Hough, J.; Houston, E. A.; Howell, E. J.; Hu, Y. M.; Huerta, E. A.; Huet, D.; Hughey, B.; Husa, S.; Huttner, S. H.; Huynh-Dinh, T.; Indik, N.; Ingram, D. R.; Inta, R.; Isa, H. N.; Isac, J.-M.; Isi, M.; Isogai, T.; Iyer, B. R.; Izumi, K.; Jacqmin, T.; Jani, K.; Jaranowski, P.; Jawahar, S.; Jiménez-Forteza, F.; Johnson, W. W.; Jones, D. I.; Jones, R.; Jonker, R. J. G.; Ju, L.; Junker, J.; Kalaghatgi, C. V.; Kalogera, V.; Kandhasamy, S.; Kang, G.; Kanner, J. B.; Karki, S.; Karvinen, K. S.; Kasprzack, M.; Katsavounidis, E.; Katzman, W.; Kaufer, S.; Kaur, T.; Kawabe, K.; Kéfélian, F.; Keitel, D.; Kelley, D. B.; Kennedy, R.; Key, J. S.; Khalili, F. Y.; Khan, I.; Khan, S.; Khan, Z.; Khazanov, E. A.; Kijbunchoo, N.; Kim, Chunglee; Kim, J. C.; Kim, Whansun; Kim, W.; Kim, Y.-M.; Kimbrell, S. J.; King, E. J.; King, P. J.; Kirchhoff, R.; Kissel, J. S.; Klein, B.; Kleybolte, L.; Klimenko, S.; Koch, P.; Koehlenbeck, S. M.; Koley, S.; Kondrashov, V.; Kontos, A.; Korobko, M.; Korth, W. Z.; Kowalska, I.; Kozak, D. B.; Krämer, C.; Kringel, V.; Krishnan, B.; Królak, A.; Kuehn, G.; Kumar, P.; Kumar, R.; Kuo, L.; Kutynia, A.; Lackey, B. D.; Landry, M.; Lang, R. N.; Lange, J.; Lantz, B.; Lanza, R. K.; Lartaux-Vollard, A.; Lasky, P. D.; Laxen, M.; Lazzarini, A.; Lazzaro, C.; Leaci, P.; Leavey, S.; Lebigot, E. O.; Lee, C. H.; Lee, H. K.; Lee, H. M.; Lee, K.; Lehmann, J.; Lenon, A.; Leonardi, M.; Leong, J. R.; Leroy, N.; Letendre, N.; Levin, Y.; Li, T. G. F.; Libson, A.; Littenberg, T. B.; Liu, J.; Lockerbie, N. A.; Lombardi, A. L.; London, L. T.; E Lord, J.; Lorenzini, M.; Loriette, V.; Lormand, M.; Losurdo, G.; Lough, J. D.; Lovelace, G.; Lück, H.; Lundgren, A. P.; Lynch, R.; Ma, Y.; Macfoy, S.; Machenschalk, B.; MacInnis, M.; Macleod, D. M.; Magaña-Sandoval, F.; Majorana, E.; Maksimovic, I.; Malvezzi, V.; Man, N.; Mandic, V.; Mangano, V.; Mansell, G. L.; Manske, M.; Mantovani, M.; Marchesoni, F.; Marion, F.; Márka, S.; Márka, Z.; Markosyan, A. S.; Maros, E.; Martelli, F.; Martellini, L.; Martin, I. W.; Martynov, D. V.; Mason, K.; Masserot, A.; Massinger, T. J.; Masso-Reid, M.; Mastrogiovanni, S.; Matichard, F.; Matone, L.; Mavalvala, N.; Mazumder, N.; McCarthy, R.; E McClelland, D.; McCormick, S.; McGrath, C.; McGuire, S. C.; McIntyre, G.; McIver, J.; McManus, D. J.; McRae, T.; McWilliams, S. T.; Meacher, D.; Meadors, G. D.; Meidam, J.; Melatos, A.; Mendell, G.; Mendoza-Gandara, D.; Mercer, R. A.; Merilh, E. L.; Merzougui, M.; Meshkov, S.; Messenger, C.; Messick, C.; Metzdorff, R.; Meyers, P. M.; Mezzani, F.; Miao, H.; Michel, C.; Middleton, H.; E Mikhailov, E.; Milano, L.; Miller, A. L.; Miller, A.; Miller, B. B.; Miller, J.; Millhouse, M.; Minenkov, Y.; Ming, J.; Mirshekari, S.; Mishra, C.; Mitra, S.; Mitrofanov, V. P.; Mitselmakher, G.; Mittleman, R.; Moggi, A.; Mohan, M.; Mohapatra, S. R. P.; Montani, M.; Moore, B. C.; Moore, C. J.; Moraru, D.; Moreno, G.; Morriss, S. R.; Mours, B.; Mow-Lowry, C. M.; Mueller, G.; Muir, A. W.; Mukherjee, Arunava; Mukherjee, D.; Mukherjee, S.; Mukund, N.; Mullavey, A.; Munch, J.; Muniz, E. A. M.; Murray, P. G.; Mytidis, A.; Napier, K.; Nardecchia, I.; Naticchioni, L.; Nelemans, G.; Nelson, T. J. N.; Neri, M.; Nery, M.; Neunzert, A.; Newport, J. M.; Newton, G.; Nguyen, T. T.; Nielsen, A. B.; Nissanke, S.; Nitz, A.; Noack, A.; Nocera, F.; Nolting, D.; Normandin, M. E. N.; Nuttall, L. K.; Oberling, J.; Ochsner, E.; Oelker, E.; Ogin, G. H.; Oh, J. J.; Oh, S. H.; Ohme, F.; Oliver, M.; Oppermann, P.; Oram, Richard J.; O'Reilly, B.; O'Shaughnessy, R.; Ottaway, D. J.; Overmier, H.; Owen, B. J.; E Pace, A.; Page, J.; Pai, A.; Pai, S. A.; Palamos, J. R.; Palashov, O.; Palomba, C.; Pal-Singh, A.; Pan, H.; Pankow, C.; Pannarale, F.; Pant, B. C.; Paoletti, F.; Paoli, A.; Papa, M. A.; Paris, H. R.; Parker, W.; Pascucci, D.; Pasqualetti, A.; Passaquieti, R.; Passuello, D.; Patricelli, B.; Pearlstone, B. L.; Pedraza, M.; Pedurand, R.; Pekowsky, L.; Pele, A.; Penn, S.; Perez, C. J.; Perreca, A.; Perri, L. M.; Pfeiffer, H. P.; Phelps, M.; Piccinni, O. J.; Pichot, M.; Piergiovanni, F.; Pierro, V.; Pillant, G.; Pinard, L.; Pinto, I. M.; Pitkin, M.; Poe, M.; Poggiani, R.; Popolizio, P.; Post, A.; Powell, J.; Prasad, J.; Pratt, J. W. W.; Predoi, V.; Prestegard, T.; Prijatelj, M.; Principe, M.; Privitera, S.; Prodi, G. A.; Prokhorov, L. G.; Puncken, O.; Punturo, M.; Puppo, P.; Pürrer, M.; Qi, H.; Qin, J.; Qiu, S.; Quetschke, V.; Quintero, E. A.; Quitzow-James, R.; Raab, F. J.; Rabeling, D. S.; Radkins, H.; Raffai, P.; Raja, S.; Rajan, C.; Rakhmanov, M.; Rapagnani, P.; Raymond, V.; Razzano, M.; Re, V.; Read, J.; Regimbau, T.; Rei, L.; Reid, S.; Reitze, D. H.; Rew, H.; Reyes, S. D.; Rhoades, E.; Ricci, F.; Riles, K.; Rizzo, M.; Robertson, N. A.; Robie, R.; Robinet, F.; Rocchi, A.; Rolland, L.; Rollins, J. G.; Roma, V. J.; Romano, J. D.; Romano, R.; Romie, J. H.; Rosińska, D.; Rowan, S.; Rüdiger, A.; Ruggi, P.; Ryan, K.; Sachdev, S.; Sadecki, T.; Sadeghian, L.; Sakellariadou, M.; Salconi, L.; Saleem, M.; Salemi, F.; Samajdar, A.; Sammut, L.; Sampson, L. M.; Sanchez, E. J.; Sandberg, V.; Sanders, J. R.; Sassolas, B.; Sathyaprakash, B. S.; Saulson, P. R.; Sauter, O.; Savage, R. L.; Sawadsky, A.; Schale, P.; Scheuer, J.; Schmidt, E.; Schmidt, J.; Schmidt, P.; Schnabel, R.; Schofield, R. M. S.; Schönbeck, A.; Schreiber, E.; Schuette, D.; Schutz, B. F.; Schwalbe, S. G.; Scott, J.; Scott, S. M.; Sellers, D.; Sengupta, A. S.; Sentenac, D.; Sequino, V.; Sergeev, A.; Setyawati, Y.; Shaddock, D. A.; Shaffer, T. J.; Shahriar, M. S.; Shapiro, B.; Shawhan, P.; Sheperd, A.; Shoemaker, D. H.; Shoemaker, D. M.; Siellez, K.; Siemens, X.; Sieniawska, M.; Sigg, D.; Silva, A. D.; Singer, A.; Singer, L. P.; Singh, A.; Singh, R.; Singhal, A.; Sintes, A. M.; Slagmolen, B. J. J.; Smith, B.; Smith, J. R.; E Smith, R. J.; Son, E. J.; Sorazu, B.; Sorrentino, F.; Souradeep, T.; Spencer, A. P.; Srivastava, A. K.; Staley, A.; Steinke, M.; Steinlechner, J.; Steinlechner, S.; Steinmeyer, D.; Stephens, B. C.; Stevenson, S. P.; Stone, R.; Strain, K. A.; Straniero, N.; Stratta, G.; E Strigin, S.; Sturani, R.; Stuver, A. L.; Summerscales, T. Z.; Sun, L.; Sunil, S.; Sutton, P. J.; Swinkels, B. L.; Szczepańczyk, M. J.; Tacca, M.; Talukder, D.; Tanner, D. B.; Tápai, M.; Taracchini, A.; Taylor, R.; Theeg, T.; Thomas, E. G.; Thomas, M.; Thomas, P.; Thorne, K. A.; Thrane, E.; Tippens, T.; Tiwari, S.; Tiwari, V.; Tokmakov, K. V.; Toland, K.; Tomlinson, C.; Tonelli, M.; Tornasi, Z.; Torrie, C. I.; Töyrä, D.; Travasso, F.; Traylor, G.; Trifirò, D.; Trinastic, J.; Tringali, M. C.; Trozzo, L.; Tse, M.; Tso, R.; Turconi, M.; Tuyenbayev, D.; Ugolini, D.; Unnikrishnan, C. S.; Urban, A. L.; Usman, S. A.; Vahlbruch, H.; Vajente, G.; Valdes, G.; van Bakel, N.; van Beuzekom, M.; van den Brand, J. F. J.; Van Den Broeck, C.; Vander-Hyde, D. C.; van der Schaaf, L.; van Heijningen, J. V.; van Veggel, A. A.; Vardaro, M.; Varma, V.; Vass, S.; Vasúth, M.; Vecchio, A.; Vedovato, G.; Veitch, J.; Veitch, P. J.; Venkateswara, K.; Venugopalan, G.; Verkindt, D.; Vetrano, F.; Viceré, A.; Viets, A. D.; Vinciguerra, S.; Vine, D. J.; Vinet, J.-Y.; Vitale, S.; Vo, T.; Vocca, H.; Vorvick, C.; Voss, D. V.; Vousden, W. D.; Vyatchanin, S. P.; Wade, A. R.; E Wade, L.; Wade, M.; Walker, M.; Wallace, L.; Walsh, S.; Wang, G.; Wang, H.; Wang, M.; Wang, Y.; Ward, R. L.; Warner, J.; Was, M.; Watchi, J.; Weaver, B.; Wei, L.-W.; Weinert, M.; Weinstein, A. J.; Weiss, R.; Wen, L.; Weßels, P.; Westphal, T.; Wette, K.; Whelan, J. T.; Whiting, B. F.; Whittle, C.; Williams, D.; Williams, R. D.; Williamson, A. R.; Willis, J. L.; Willke, B.; Wimmer, M. H.; Winkler, W.; Wipf, C. C.; Wittel, H.; Woan, G.; Woehler, J.; Worden, J.; Wright, J. L.; Wu, D. S.; Wu, G.; Yam, W.; Yamamoto, H.; Yancey, C. C.; Yap, M. J.; Yu, Hang; Yu, Haocun; Yvert, M.; Zadrożny, A.; Zangrando, L.; Zanolin, M.; Zendri, J.-P.; Zevin, M.; Zhang, L.; Zhang, M.; Zhang, T.; Zhang, Y.; Zhao, C.; Zhou, M.; Zhou, Z.; Zhu, S. J.; Zhu, X. J.; E Zucker, M.; Zweizig, J.; LIGO Scientific Collaboration; Virgo Collaboration; Boyle, M.; Chu, T.; Hemberger, D.; Hinder, I.; E Kidder, L.; Ossokine, S.; Scheel, M.; Szilagyi, B.; Teukolsky, S.; Vano Vinuales, A.

    2017-05-01

    Parameter estimates of GW150914 were obtained using Bayesian inference, based on three semi-analytic waveform models for binary black hole coalescences. These waveform models differ from each other in their treatment of black hole spins, and all three models make some simplifying assumptions, notably to neglect sub-dominant waveform harmonic modes and orbital eccentricity. Furthermore, while the models are calibrated to agree with waveforms obtained by full numerical solutions of Einstein’s equations, any such calibration is accurate only to some non-zero tolerance and is limited by the accuracy of the underlying phenomenology, availability, quality, and parameter-space coverage of numerical simulations. This paper complements the original analyses of GW150914 with an investigation of the effects of possible systematic errors in the waveform models on estimates of its source parameters. To test for systematic errors we repeat the original Bayesian analysis on mock signals from numerical simulations of a series of binary configurations with parameters similar to those found for GW150914. Overall, we find no evidence for a systematic bias relative to the statistical error of the original parameter recovery of GW150914 due to modeling approximations or modeling inaccuracies. However, parameter biases are found to occur for some configurations disfavored by the data of GW150914: for binaries inclined edge-on to the detector over a small range of choices of polarization angles, and also for eccentricities greater than  ˜0.05. For signals with higher signal-to-noise ratio than GW150914, or in other regions of the binary parameter space (lower masses, larger mass ratios, or higher spins), we expect that systematic errors in current waveform models may impact gravitational-wave measurements, making more accurate models desirable for future observations.

  9. Predictive equations underestimate resting energy expenditure in female adolescents with phenylketonuria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quirk, Meghan E.; Schmotzer, Brian J.; Schmotzer, Brian J.; Singh, Rani H.

    2010-01-01

    Resting energy expenditure (REE) is often used to estimate total energy needs. The Schofield equation based on weight and height has been reported to underestimate REE in female children with phenylketonuria (PKU). The objective of this observational, cross-sectional study was to evaluate the agreement of measured REE with predicted REE for female adolescents with PKU. A total of 36 females (aged 11.5-18.7 years) with PKU attending Emory University’s Metabolic Camp (June 2002 – June 2008) underwent indirect calorimetry. Measured REE was compared to six predictive equations using paired Student’s t-tests, regression-based analysis, and assessment of clinical accuracy. The differences between measured and predicted REE were modeled against clinical parameters to determine to if a relationship existed. All six selected equations significantly under predicted measured REE (P< 0.005). The Schofield equation based on weight had the greatest level of agreement, with the lowest mean prediction bias (144 kcal) and highest concordance correlation coefficient (0.626). However, the Schofield equation based on weight lacked clinical accuracy, predicting measured REE within ±10% in only 14 of 36 participants. Clinical parameters were not associated with bias for any of the equations. Predictive equations underestimated measured REE in this group of female adolescents with PKU. Currently, there is no accurate and precise alternative for indirect calorimetry in this population. PMID:20497783

  10. Understanding in vivo modelling of depression in non-human animals: a systematic review protocol

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bannach-Brown, Alexandra; Liao, Jing; Wegener, Gregers

    2016-01-01

    experimental model(s) to induce or mimic a depressive-like phenotype. Data that will be extracted include the model or method of induction; species and gender of the animals used; the behavioural, anatomical, electrophysiological, neurochemical or genetic outcome measure(s) used; risk of bias......The aim of this study is to systematically collect all published preclinical non-human animal literature on depression to provide an unbiased overview of existing knowledge. A systematic search will be carried out in PubMed and Embase. Studies will be included if they use non-human animal......-analysis of the preclinical studies modelling depression-like behaviours and phenotypes in animals....

  11. Systematic model development for partial nitrification of landfill leachate in a SBR

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ganigue, R.; Volcke, E.I.P.; Puig, S.

    2010-01-01

    ), confirmed by statistical tests. Good model fits were also obtained for pH, despite a slight bias in pH prediction, probably caused by the high salinity of the leachate. Future work will be addressed to the model-based evaluation of the interaction of different factors (aeration, stripping, pH, inhibitions....... Following a systematic procedure, the model was successfully constructed, calibrated and validated using data from short-term (one cycle) operation of the PN-SBR. The evaluation of the model revealed a good fit to the main physical-chemical measurements (ammonium, nitrite, nitrate and inorganic carbon......, among others) and their impact on the process performance....

  12. Scaling analysis in modeling transport and reaction processes a systematic approach to model building and the art of approximation

    CERN Document Server

    Krantz, William B

    2007-01-01

    This book is unique as the first effort to expound on the subject of systematic scaling analysis. Not written for a specific discipline, the book targets any reader interested in transport phenomena and reaction processes. The book is logically divided into chapters on the use of systematic scaling analysis in fluid dynamics, heat transfer, mass transfer, and reaction processes. An integrating chapter is included that considers more complex problems involving combined transport phenomena. Each chapter includes several problems that are explained in considerable detail. These are followed by several worked examples for which the general outline for the scaling is given. Each chapter also includes many practice problems. This book is based on recognizing the value of systematic scaling analysis as a pedagogical method for teaching transport and reaction processes and as a research tool for developing and solving models and in designing experiments. Thus, the book can serve as both a textbook and a reference boo...

  13. Design of roundness measurement model with multi-systematic error for cylindrical components with large radius.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Chuanzhi; Wang, Lei; Tan, Jiubin; Zhao, Bo; Tang, Yangchao

    2016-02-01

    The paper designs a roundness measurement model with multi-systematic error, which takes eccentricity, probe offset, radius of tip head of probe, and tilt error into account for roundness measurement of cylindrical components. The effects of the systematic errors and radius of components are analysed in the roundness measurement. The proposed method is built on the instrument with a high precision rotating spindle. The effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by experiment with the standard cylindrical component, which is measured on a roundness measuring machine. Compared to the traditional limacon measurement model, the accuracy of roundness measurement can be increased by about 2.2 μm using the proposed roundness measurement model for the object with a large radius of around 37 mm. The proposed method can improve the accuracy of roundness measurement and can be used for error separation, calibration, and comparison, especially for cylindrical components with a large radius.

  14. Complete Systematic Error Model of SSR for Sensor Registration in ATC Surveillance Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jarama, Ángel J; López-Araquistain, Jaime; Miguel, Gonzalo de; Besada, Juan A

    2017-09-21

    In this paper, a complete and rigorous mathematical model for secondary surveillance radar systematic errors (biases) is developed. The model takes into account the physical effects systematically affecting the measurement processes. The azimuth biases are calculated from the physical error of the antenna calibration and the errors of the angle determination dispositive. Distance bias is calculated from the delay of the signal produced by the refractivity index of the atmosphere, and from clock errors, while the altitude bias is calculated taking into account the atmosphere conditions (pressure and temperature). It will be shown, using simulated and real data, that adapting a classical bias estimation process to use the complete parametrized model results in improved accuracy in the bias estimation.

  15. Complete Systematic Error Model of SSR for Sensor Registration in ATC Surveillance Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ángel J. Jarama

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, a complete and rigorous mathematical model for secondary surveillance radar systematic errors (biases is developed. The model takes into account the physical effects systematically affecting the measurement processes. The azimuth biases are calculated from the physical error of the antenna calibration and the errors of the angle determination dispositive. Distance bias is calculated from the delay of the signal produced by the refractivity index of the atmosphere, and from clock errors, while the altitude bias is calculated taking into account the atmosphere conditions (pressure and temperature. It will be shown, using simulated and real data, that adapting a classical bias estimation process to use the complete parametrized model results in improved accuracy in the bias estimation.

  16. Simulation Modelling in Healthcare: An Umbrella Review of Systematic Literature Reviews.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salleh, Syed; Thokala, Praveen; Brennan, Alan; Hughes, Ruby; Booth, Andrew

    2017-09-01

    Numerous studies examine simulation modelling in healthcare. These studies present a bewildering array of simulation techniques and applications, making it challenging to characterise the literature. The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of the level of activity of simulation modelling in healthcare and the key themes. We performed an umbrella review of systematic literature reviews of simulation modelling in healthcare. Searches were conducted of academic databases (JSTOR, Scopus, PubMed, IEEE, SAGE, ACM, Wiley Online Library, ScienceDirect) and grey literature sources, enhanced by citation searches. The articles were included if they performed a systematic review of simulation modelling techniques in healthcare. After quality assessment of all included articles, data were extracted on numbers of studies included in each review, types of applications, techniques used for simulation modelling, data sources and simulation software. The search strategy yielded a total of 117 potential articles. Following sifting, 37 heterogeneous reviews were included. Most reviews achieved moderate quality rating on a modified AMSTAR (A Measurement Tool used to Assess systematic Reviews) checklist. All the review articles described the types of applications used for simulation modelling; 15 reviews described techniques used for simulation modelling; three reviews described data sources used for simulation modelling; and six reviews described software used for simulation modelling. The remaining reviews either did not report or did not provide enough detail for the data to be extracted. Simulation modelling techniques have been used for a wide range of applications in healthcare, with a variety of software tools and data sources. The number of reviews published in recent years suggest an increased interest in simulation modelling in healthcare.

  17. Clinical information modeling processes for semantic interoperability of electronic health records: systematic review and inductive analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreno-Conde, Alberto; Moner, David; Cruz, Wellington Dimas da; Santos, Marcelo R; Maldonado, José Alberto; Robles, Montserrat; Kalra, Dipak

    2015-07-01

    This systematic review aims to identify and compare the existing processes and methodologies that have been published in the literature for defining clinical information models (CIMs) that support the semantic interoperability of electronic health record (EHR) systems. Following the preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analyses systematic review methodology, the authors reviewed published papers between 2000 and 2013 that covered that semantic interoperability of EHRs, found by searching the PubMed, IEEE Xplore, and ScienceDirect databases. Additionally, after selection of a final group of articles, an inductive content analysis was done to summarize the steps and methodologies followed in order to build CIMs described in those articles. Three hundred and seventy-eight articles were screened and thirty six were selected for full review. The articles selected for full review were analyzed to extract relevant information for the analysis and characterized according to the steps the authors had followed for clinical information modeling. Most of the reviewed papers lack a detailed description of the modeling methodologies used to create CIMs. A representative example is the lack of description related to the definition of terminology bindings and the publication of the generated models. However, this systematic review confirms that most clinical information modeling activities follow very similar steps for the definition of CIMs. Having a robust and shared methodology could improve their correctness, reliability, and quality. Independently of implementation technologies and standards, it is possible to find common patterns in methods for developing CIMs, suggesting the viability of defining a unified good practice methodology to be used by any clinical information modeler. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Medical Informatics Association. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  18. Asymmetries of poverty: why global burden of disease valuations underestimate the burden of neglected tropical diseases.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charles H King

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available The disability-adjusted life year (DALY initially appeared attractive as a health metric in the Global Burden of Disease (GBD program, as it purports to be a comprehensive health assessment that encompassed premature mortality, morbidity, impairment, and disability. It was originally thought that the DALY would be useful in policy settings, reflecting normative valuations as a standardized unit of ill health. However, the design of the DALY and its use in policy estimates contain inherent flaws that result in systematic undervaluation of the importance of chronic diseases, such as many of the neglected tropical diseases (NTDs, in world health. The conceptual design of the DALY comes out of a perspective largely focused on the individual risk rather than the ecology of disease, thus failing to acknowledge the implications of context on the burden of disease for the poor. It is nonrepresentative of the impact of poverty on disability, which results in the significant underestimation of disability weights for chronic diseases such as the NTDs. Finally, the application of the DALY in policy estimates does not account for the nonlinear effects of poverty in the cost-utility analysis of disease control, effectively discounting the utility of comprehensively treating NTDs. The present DALY framework needs to be substantially revised if the GBD is to become a valid and useful system for determining health priorities.

  19. Systematic Multi‐Scale Model Development Strategy for the Fragrance Spraying Process and Transport

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heitzig, M.; Rong, Y.; Gregson, C.

    2012-01-01

    The fast and efficient development and application of reliable models with appropriate degree of detail to predict the behavior of fragrance aerosols are challenging problems of high interest to the related industries. A generic modeling template for the systematic derivation of specific fragrance......‐aided modeling framework, which is structured based on workflows for different general modeling tasks. The benefits of the fragrance spraying template are highlighted by a case study related to the derivation of a fragrance aerosol model that is able to reflect measured dynamic droplet size distribution profiles...... aerosol models is proposed. The main benefits of the fragrance spraying template are the speed‐up of the model development/derivation process, the increase in model quality, and the provision of structured domain knowledge where needed. The fragrance spraying template is integrated in a generic computer...

  20. A systematic fault tree analysis based on multi-level flow modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gofuku, Akio; Ohara, Ai

    2010-01-01

    The fault tree analysis (FTA) is widely applied for the safety evaluation of a large-scale and mission-critical system. Because the potential of the FTA, however, strongly depends on human skill of analyzers, problems are pointed out in (1) education and training, (2) unreliable quality, (3) necessity of expertise knowledge, and (4) update of FTA results after the reconstruction of a target system. To get rid of these problems, many techniques to systematize FTA activities by applying computer technologies have been proposed. However, these techniques only use structural information of a target system and do not use functional information that is one of important properties of an artifact. The principle of FTA is to trace comprehensively cause-effect relations from a top undesirable effect to anomaly causes. The tracing is similar to the causality estimation technique that the authors proposed to find plausible counter actions to prevent or to mitigate the undesirable behavior of plants based on the model by a functional modeling technique, Multilevel Flow Modeling (MFM). The authors have extended this systematic technique to construct a fault tree (FT). This paper presents an algorithm of systematic construction of FT based on MFM models and demonstrates the applicability of the extended technique by the FT construction result of a cooling plant of nitric acid. (author)

  1. FROM ATOMISTIC TO SYSTEMATIC COARSE-GRAINED MODELS FOR MOLECULAR SYSTEMS

    KAUST Repository

    Harmandaris, Vagelis

    2017-10-03

    The development of systematic (rigorous) coarse-grained mesoscopic models for complex molecular systems is an intense research area. Here we first give an overview of methods for obtaining optimal parametrized coarse-grained models, starting from detailed atomistic representation for high dimensional molecular systems. Different methods are described based on (a) structural properties (inverse Boltzmann approaches), (b) forces (force matching), and (c) path-space information (relative entropy). Next, we present a detailed investigation concerning the application of these methods in systems under equilibrium and non-equilibrium conditions. Finally, we present results from the application of these methods to model molecular systems.

  2. Surgeons underestimate their influence on medical students entering surgery.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Quillin 3rd, R.C.; Pritts, T.A.; Davis, B.R.; Hanseman, D.; Collins, J.M.; Athota, K.P.; Edwards, M.J.R.; Tevar, A.D.

    2012-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Positive surgical role models influence medical students to pursue a career in surgery. However, the perception by role models of their own effectiveness has yet to be examined. In this study, we evaluated the influence of surgical role models on medical student career choice, and how

  3. Decoding β-decay systematics: A global statistical model for β- half-lives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Costiris, N. J.; Mavrommatis, E.; Gernoth, K. A.; Clark, J. W.

    2009-01-01

    Statistical modeling of nuclear data provides a novel approach to nuclear systematics complementary to established theoretical and phenomenological approaches based on quantum theory. Continuing previous studies in which global statistical modeling is pursued within the general framework of machine learning theory, we implement advances in training algorithms designed to improve generalization, in application to the problem of reproducing and predicting the half-lives of nuclear ground states that decay 100% by the β - mode. More specifically, fully connected, multilayer feed-forward artificial neural network models are developed using the Levenberg-Marquardt optimization algorithm together with Bayesian regularization and cross-validation. The predictive performance of models emerging from extensive computer experiments is compared with that of traditional microscopic and phenomenological models as well as with the performance of other learning systems, including earlier neural network models as well as the support vector machines recently applied to the same problem. In discussing the results, emphasis is placed on predictions for nuclei that are far from the stability line, and especially those involved in r-process nucleosynthesis. It is found that the new statistical models can match or even surpass the predictive performance of conventional models for β-decay systematics and accordingly should provide a valuable additional tool for exploring the expanding nuclear landscape.

  4. Radiographic Underestimation of In Vivo Cup Coverage Provided by Total Hip Arthroplasty for Dysplasia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nie, Yong; Wang, HaoYang; Huang, ZeYu; Shen, Bin; Kraus, Virginia Byers; Zhou, Zongke

    2018-01-01

    The accuracy of using 2-dimensional anteroposterior pelvic radiography to assess acetabular cup coverage among patients with developmental dysplasia of the hip after total hip arthroplasty (THA) remains unclear in retrospective clinical studies. A group of 20 patients with developmental dysplasia of the hip (20 hips) underwent cementless THA. During surgery but after acetabular reconstruction, bone wax was pressed onto the uncovered surface of the acetabular cup. A surface model of the bone wax was generated with 3-dimensional scanning. The percentage of the acetabular cup that was covered by intact host acetabular bone in vivo was calculated with modeling software. Acetabular cup coverage also was determined from a postoperative supine anteroposterior pelvic radiograph. The height of the hip center (distance from the center of the femoral head perpendicular to the inter-teardrop line) also was determined from radiographs. Radiographic cup coverage was a mean of 6.93% (SD, 2.47%) lower than in vivo cup coverage for these 20 patients with developmental dysplasia of the hip (Pcup coverage (Pearson r=0.761, Pcup (P=.001) but not the position of the hip center (high vs normal) was significantly associated with the difference between radiographic and in vivo cup coverage. Two-dimensional radiographically determined cup coverage conservatively reflects in vivo cup coverage and remains an important index (taking 7% underestimation errors and the effect of greater underestimation of larger cup size into account) for assessing the stability of the cup and monitoring for adequate ingrowth of bone. [Orthopedics. 2018; 41(1):e46-e51.]. Copyright 2017, SLACK Incorporated.

  5. Evaluation models and criteria of the quality of hospital websites: a systematic review study

    OpenAIRE

    Jeddi, Fatemeh Rangraz; Gilasi, Hamidreza; Khademi, Sahar

    2017-01-01

    Introduction Hospital websites are important tools in establishing communication and exchanging information between patients and staff, and thus should enjoy an acceptable level of quality. The aim of this study was to identify proper models and criteria to evaluate the quality of hospital websites. Methods This research was a systematic review study. The international databases such as Science Direct, Google Scholar, PubMed, Proquest, Ovid, Elsevier, Springer, and EBSCO together with regiona...

  6. Systematic Assessment of Neutron and Gamma Backgrounds Relevant to Operational Modeling and Detection Technology Implementation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Archer, Daniel E. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Hornback, Donald Eric [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Johnson, Jeffrey O. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Nicholson, Andrew D. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Patton, Bruce W. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Peplow, Douglas E. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Miller, Thomas Martin [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Ayaz-Maierhafer, Birsen [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    2015-01-01

    This report summarizes the findings of a two year effort to systematically assess neutron and gamma backgrounds relevant to operational modeling and detection technology implementation. The first year effort focused on reviewing the origins of background sources and their impact on measured rates in operational scenarios of interest. The second year has focused on the assessment of detector and algorithm performance as they pertain to operational requirements against the various background sources and background levels.

  7. Implementing learning organization components in Ardabil Regional Water Company based on Marquardt systematic model

    OpenAIRE

    Shahram Mirzaie Daryani; Azadeh Zirak

    2015-01-01

    This main purpose of this study was to survey the implementation of learning organization characteristics based on Marquardt systematic model in Ardabil Regional Water Company. Two hundred and four staff (164 employees and 40 authorities) participated in the study. For data collection Marquardt questionnaire was used which its validity and reliability had been confirmed. The results of the data analysis showed that learning organization characteristics were used more than average level in som...

  8. A systematic approach for development of a PWR cladding corrosion model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Quecedo, M.; Serna, J.J.; Weiner, R.A.; Kersting, P.J.

    2001-01-01

    A new model for the in-reactor corrosion of Improved (low-tin) Zircaloy-4 cladding irradiated in commercial pressurized water reactors (PWRs) is described. The model is based on an extensive database of PWR fuel cladding corrosion data from fuel irradiated in commercial reactors, with a range of fuel duty and coolant chemistry control strategies which bracket current PWR fuel management practices. The fuel thermal duty with these current fuel management practices is characterized by a significant amount of sub-cooled nucleate boiling (SNB) during the fuel's residence in-core, and the cladding corrosion model is very sensitive to the coolant heat transfer models used to calculate the coolant temperature at the oxide surface. The systematic approach to developing the new corrosion model therefore began with a review and evaluation of several alternative models for the forced convection and SNB coolant heat transfer. The heat transfer literature is not sufficient to determine which of these heat transfer models is most appropriate for PWR fuel rod operating conditions, and the selection of the coolant heat transfer model used in the new cladding corrosion model has been coupled with a statistical analysis of the in-reactor corrosion enhancement factors and their impact on obtaining the best fit to the cladding corrosion data. The in-reactor corrosion enhancement factors considered in this statistical analysis are based on a review of the current literature for PWR cladding corrosion phenomenology and models. Fuel operating condition factors which this literature review indicated could have a significant effect on the cladding corrosion performance were also evaluated in detail in developing the corrosion model. An iterative least squares fitting procedure was used to obtain the model coefficients and select the coolant heat transfer models and in-reactor corrosion enhancement factors. This statistical procedure was completed with an exhaustive analysis of the model

  9. e-Government Maturity Model Based on Systematic Review and Meta-Ethnography Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Darmawan Napitupulu

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Maturity model based on e-Government portal has been developed by a number of researchers both individually and institutionally, but still scattered in various journals and conference articles and can be said to have a different focus with each other, both in terms of stages and features. The aim of this research is conducting a study to integrate a number of maturity models existing today in order to build generic maturity model based on e-Government portal. The method used in this study is Systematic Review with meta-ethnography qualitative approach. Meta-ethnography, which is part of Systematic Review method, is a technique to perform data integration to obtain theories and concepts with a new level of understanding that is deeper and thorough. The result obtained is a maturity model based on e-Government portal that consists of 7 (seven stages, namely web presence, interaction, transaction, vertical integration, horizontal integration, full integration, and open participation. These seven stages are synthesized from the 111 key concepts related to 25 studies of maturity model based e-Government portal. The maturity model resulted is more comprehensive and generic because it is an integration of models (best practices that exists today.

  10. [The effectiveness of continuing care models in patients with chronic diseases: a systematic review].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Hsiao-Mei; Han, Tung-Chen; Chen, Ching-Min

    2014-04-01

    Population aging has caused significant rises in the prevalence of chronic diseases and the utilization of healthcare services in Taiwan. The current healthcare delivery system is fragmented. Integrating medical services may increase the quality of healthcare, enhance patient and patient family satisfaction with healthcare services, and better contain healthcare costs. This article introduces two continuing care models: discharge planning and case management. Further, the effectiveness and essential components of these two models are analyzed using a systematic review method. Articles included in this systematic review were all original articles on discharge-planning or case-management interventions published between February 1999 and March 2013 in any of 6 electronic databases (Medline, PubMed, Cinahl Plus with full Text, ProQuest, Cochrane Library, CEPS and Center for Chinese Studies electronic databases). Of the 70 articles retrieved, only 7 were randomized controlled trial studies. Three types of continuity-of-care models were identified: discharge planning, case management, and a hybrid of these two. All three models used logical and systematic processes to conduct assessment, planning, implementation, coordination, follow-up, and evaluation activities. Both the discharge planning model and the case management model were positively associated with improved self-care knowledge, reduced length of stay, decreased medical costs, and better quality of life. This study cross-referenced all reviewed articles in terms of target clients, content, intervention schedules, measurements, and outcome indicators. Study results may be referenced in future implementations of continuity-care models and may provide a reference for future research.

  11. Systematics of β and γ parameters of O(6)-like nuclei in the interacting boson model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Baolin

    1997-01-01

    By comparing quadrupole moments between the interacting boson model (IBM) and the collective model, a simple calculation for the triaxial deformation parameters β and γ in the O(6)-like nuclei is presented, based on the intrinsic frame in the IBM. The systematics of the β and γ are studied. The realistic cases are calculated for the even-even Xe, Ba and Ce isotopes, and the smooth dependences of the strength ratios θ 3 /κ and the effective charges e 2 on the proton and neutron boson numbers N π and N ν are discovered

  12. Veterans' informal caregivers in the "sandwich generation": a systematic review toward a resilience model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith-Osborne, Alexa; Felderhoff, Brandi

    2014-01-01

    Social work theory advanced the formulation of the construct of the sandwich generation to apply to the emerging generational cohort of caregivers, most often middle-aged women, who were caring for maturing children and aging parents simultaneously. This systematic review extends that focus by synthesizing the literature on sandwich generation caregivers for the general aging population with dementia and for veterans with dementia and polytrauma. It develops potential protective mechanisms based on empirical literature to support an intervention resilience model for social work practitioners. This theoretical model addresses adaptive coping of sandwich- generation families facing ongoing challenges related to caregiving demands.

  13. Economic Evaluations of Multicomponent Disease Management Programs with Markov Models: A Systematic Review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirsch, Florian

    2016-12-01

    Disease management programs (DMPs) for chronic diseases are being increasingly implemented worldwide. To present a systematic overview of the economic effects of DMPs with Markov models. The quality of the models is assessed, the method by which the DMP intervention is incorporated into the model is examined, and the differences in the structure and data used in the models are considered. A literature search was conducted; the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses statement was followed to ensure systematic selection of the articles. Study characteristics e.g. results, the intensity of the DMP and usual care, model design, time horizon, discount rates, utility measures, and cost-of-illness were extracted from the reviewed studies. Model quality was assessed by two researchers with two different appraisals: one proposed by Philips et al. (Good practice guidelines for decision-analytic modelling in health technology assessment: a review and consolidation of quality asessment. Pharmacoeconomics 2006;24:355-71) and the other proposed by Caro et al. (Questionnaire to assess relevance and credibility of modeling studies for informing health care decision making: an ISPOR-AMCP-NPC Good Practice Task Force report. Value Health 2014;17:174-82). A total of 16 studies (9 on chronic heart disease, 2 on asthma, and 5 on diabetes) met the inclusion criteria. Five studies reported cost savings and 11 studies reported additional costs. In the quality, the overall score of the models ranged from 39% to 65%, it ranged from 34% to 52%. Eleven models integrated effectiveness derived from a clinical trial or a meta-analysis of complete DMPs and only five models combined intervention effects from different sources into a DMP. The main limitations of the models are bad reporting practice and the variation in the selection of input parameters. Eleven of the 14 studies reported cost-effectiveness results of less than $30,000 per quality-adjusted life-year and

  14. Heavy rainfall: An underestimated environmental risk for buildings?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Golz Sebastian

    2016-01-01

    Second, heavy rain may result in urban pluvial flooding due to sewer overflow that cause severe damage to buildings. A comprehensive study of the impacts and the consequences in Dresden (Germany, presented in the paper, revealed that the potential risks of flooding from sewers due to hydraulic overload can be estimated on building scale using the model approach IVART (Integrated Spatial Vulnerability and Risk Assessment Tool. Modelling results provide the basis to quantify the effectiveness and efficiency of flood resilience technologies.

  15. Factors Models of Scrum Adoption in the Software Development Process: A Systematic Literature Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marilyn Sihuay

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available (Background The adoption of Agile Software Development (ASD, in particular Scrum, has grown significantly since its introduction in 2001. However, in Lima, many ASDs implementations have been not suitable (uncompleted or inconsistent, thus losing benefits obtainable by this approach and the critical success factors in this context are unknown. (Objective To analyze factors models used in the evaluation of the adoption of ASDs, as these factors models can contribute to explaining the success or failure of these adoptions. (Method In this study we used a systematic literature review. (Result Ten models have been identified; their similarities and differences are presented. (Conclusion Each model identified consider different factors, however some of them are shared by five of these models, such as team member attributes, engaging customer, customer collaboration, experience and work environment.

  16. The air forces on a systematic series of biplane and triplane cellule models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munk, Max M

    1927-01-01

    The air forces on a systematic series of biplane and triplane cellule models are the subject of this report. The test consist in the determination of the lift, drag, and moment of each individual airfoil in each cellule, mostly with the same wing section. The magnitude of the gap and of the stagger is systematically varied; not, however, the decalage, which is zero throughout the tests. Certain check tests with a second wing section make the tests more complete and conclusions more convincing. The results give evidence that the present army and navy specifications for the relative lifts of biplanes are good. They furnish material for improving such specifications for the relative lifts of triplanes. A larger number of factors can now be prescribed to take care of different cases.

  17. Measuring and modelling the effects of systematic non-adherence to mass drug administration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Louise Dyson

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available It is well understood that the success or failure of a mass drug administration campaign critically depends on the level of coverage achieved. To that end coverage levels are often closely scrutinised during campaigns and the response to underperforming campaigns is to attempt to improve coverage. Modelling work has indicated, however, that the quality of the coverage achieved may also have a significant impact on the outcome. If the coverage achieved is likely to miss similar people every round then this can have a serious detrimental effect on the campaign outcome. We begin by reviewing the current modelling descriptions of this effect and introduce a new modelling framework that can be used to simulate a given level of systematic non-adherence. We formalise the likelihood that people may miss several rounds of treatment using the correlation in the attendance of different rounds. Using two very simplified models of the infection of helminths and non-helminths, respectively, we demonstrate that the modelling description used and the correlation included between treatment rounds can have a profound effect on the time to elimination of disease in a population. It is therefore clear that more detailed coverage data is required to accurately predict the time to disease elimination. We review published coverage data in which individuals are asked how many previous rounds they have attended, and show how this information may be used to assess the level of systematic non-adherence. We note that while the coverages in the data found range from 40.5% to 95.5%, still the correlations found lie in a fairly narrow range (between 0.2806 and 0.5351. This indicates that the level of systematic non-adherence may be similar even in data from different years, countries, diseases and administered drugs.

  18. Eating disorders among fashion models: a systematic review of the literature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zancu, Simona Alexandra; Enea, Violeta

    2017-09-01

    In the light of recent concerns regarding the eating disorders among fashion models and professional regulations of fashion model occupation, an examination of the scientific evidence on this issue is necessary. The article reviews findings on the prevalence of eating disorders and body image concerns among professional fashion models. A systematic literature search was conducted using ProQUEST, EBSCO, PsycINFO, SCOPUS, and Gale Canage electronic databases. A very low number of studies conducted on fashion models and eating disorders resulted between 1980 and 2015, with seven articles included in this review. Overall, results of these studies do not indicate a higher prevalence of eating disorders among fashion models compared to non-models. Fashion models have a positive body image and generally do not report more dysfunctional eating behaviors than controls. However, fashion models are on average slightly underweight with significantly lower BMI than controls, and give higher importance to appearance and thin body shape, and thus have a higher prevalence of partial-syndrome eating disorders than controls. Despite public concerns, research on eating disorders among professional fashion models is extremely scarce and results cannot be generalized to all models. The existing research fails to clarify the matter of eating disorders among fashion models and given the small number of studies, further research is needed.

  19. Completeness and underestimation of cancer mortality rate in Iran: a report from Fars Province in southern Iran.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marzban, Maryam; Haghdoost, Ali-Akbar; Dortaj, Eshagh; Bahrampour, Abbas; Zendehdel, Kazem

    2015-03-01

    The incidence and mortality rates of cancer are increasing worldwide, particularly in the developing countries. Valid data are needed for measuring the cancer burden and making appropriate decisions toward cancer control. We evaluated the completeness of death registry with regard to cancer death in Fars Province, I. R. of Iran. We used data from three sources in Fars Province, including the national death registry (source 1), the follow-up data from the pathology-based cancer registry (source 2) and hospital based records (source 3) during 2004 - 2006. We used the capture-recapture method and estimated underestimation and the true age standardized mortality rate (ASMR) for cancer. We used log-linear (LL) modeling for statistical analysis. We observed 1941, 480, and 355 cancer deaths in sources 1, 2 and 3, respectively. After data linkage, we estimated that mortality registry had about 40% underestimation for cancer death. After adjustment for this underestimation rate, the ASMR of cancer in the Fars Province for all cancer types increased from 44.8 per 100,000 (95% CI: 42.8 - 46.7) to 76.3 per 100,000 (95% CI: 73.3 - 78.9), accounting for 3309 (95% CI: 3151 - 3293) cancer deaths annually. The mortality rate of cancer is considerably higher than the rates reported by the routine registry in Iran. Improvement in the validity and completeness of the mortality registry is needed to estimate the true mortality rate caused by cancer in Iran.

  20. Systematically too low values of the cranking model collective inertia parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dudek, I.; Dudek, W.; Lukasiak-Ruchowska, E.; Skalski, I.

    1980-01-01

    Deformed Nilsson and Woods-Saxon potentials were employed for generating single particle states used henceforth for calculating the inertia tensor (cranking model and monopole pairing) and the collective energy surfaces (Strutinsky method). The deformation was parametrized in terms of quadrupole and hexadecapole degrees of freedom. The classical energy expression obtained from the inertia tensor and energy surfaces was quantized and the resulting stationary Schroedinger equation was solved using the approximate method. The second Isup(π) = 0 + 2 collective level energies were calculated for the Rare Earth and Actinide nuclei and the results compared with the experimental data. The vibrational level energies agree with the experimental ones much better for spherical nuclei for both single particle potentials; the discrepancies for deformed nuclei overestimate the experimental results by roughly a factor of two. It is argued that coupling of the axially symmetric quadrupole degrees of freedom to non-axial and hexadecapole ones does not affect the conclusions about systematically too low mass parameter values. The alternative explanation of the systematic deviations from the 0 + 2 level energies could be a systematically too high stiffness of the energy surfaces obrained with the Strutinsky method. (orig.)

  1. Exposure limits: the underestimation of absorbed cell phone radiation, especially in children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gandhi, Om P; Morgan, L Lloyd; de Salles, Alvaro Augusto; Han, Yueh-Ying; Herberman, Ronald B; Davis, Devra Lee

    2012-03-01

    The existing cell phone certification process uses a plastic model of the head called the Specific Anthropomorphic Mannequin (SAM), representing the top 10% of U.S. military recruits in 1989 and greatly underestimating the Specific Absorption Rate (SAR) for typical mobile phone users, especially children. A superior computer simulation certification process has been approved by the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) but is not employed to certify cell phones. In the United States, the FCC determines maximum allowed exposures. Many countries, especially European Union members, use the "guidelines" of International Commission on Non-Ionizing Radiation Protection (ICNIRP), a non governmental agency. Radiofrequency (RF) exposure to a head smaller than SAM will absorb a relatively higher SAR. Also, SAM uses a fluid having the average electrical properties of the head that cannot indicate differential absorption of specific brain tissue, nor absorption in children or smaller adults. The SAR for a 10-year old is up to 153% higher than the SAR for the SAM model. When electrical properties are considered, a child's head's absorption can be over two times greater, and absorption of the skull's bone marrow can be ten times greater than adults. Therefore, a new certification process is needed that incorporates different modes of use, head sizes, and tissue properties. Anatomically based models should be employed in revising safety standards for these ubiquitous modern devices and standards should be set by accountable, independent groups.

  2. Equation-free analysis of agent-based models and systematic parameter determination

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Spencer A.; Lloyd, David J. B.; Skeldon, Anne C.

    2016-12-01

    Agent based models (ABM)s are increasingly used in social science, economics, mathematics, biology and computer science to describe time dependent systems in circumstances where a description in terms of equations is difficult. Yet few tools are currently available for the systematic analysis of ABM behaviour. Numerical continuation and bifurcation analysis is a well-established tool for the study of deterministic systems. Recently, equation-free (EF) methods have been developed to extend numerical continuation techniques to systems where the dynamics are described at a microscopic scale and continuation of a macroscopic property of the system is considered. To date, the practical use of EF methods has been limited by; (1) the over-head of application-specific implementation; (2) the laborious configuration of problem-specific parameters; and (3) large ensemble sizes (potentially) leading to computationally restrictive run-times. In this paper we address these issues with our tool for the EF continuation of stochastic systems, which includes algorithms to systematically configuration problem specific parameters and enhance robustness to noise. Our tool is generic and can be applied to any 'black-box' simulator and determines the essential EF parameters prior to EF analysis. Robustness is significantly improved using our convergence-constraint with a corrector-repeat (C3R) method. This algorithm automatically detects outliers based on the dynamics of the underlying system enabling both an order of magnitude reduction in ensemble size and continuation of systems at much higher levels of noise than classical approaches. We demonstrate our method with application to several ABM models, revealing parameter dependence, bifurcation and stability analysis of these complex systems giving a deep understanding of the dynamical behaviour of the models in a way that is not otherwise easily obtainable. In each case we demonstrate our systematic parameter determination stage for

  3. A systematic literature review of open source software quality assessment models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adewumi, Adewole; Misra, Sanjay; Omoregbe, Nicholas; Crawford, Broderick; Soto, Ricardo

    2016-01-01

    Many open source software (OSS) quality assessment models are proposed and available in the literature. However, there is little or no adoption of these models in practice. In order to guide the formulation of newer models so they can be acceptable by practitioners, there is need for clear discrimination of the existing models based on their specific properties. Based on this, the aim of this study is to perform a systematic literature review to investigate the properties of the existing OSS quality assessment models by classifying them with respect to their quality characteristics, the methodology they use for assessment, and their domain of application so as to guide the formulation and development of newer models. Searches in IEEE Xplore, ACM, Science Direct, Springer and Google Search is performed so as to retrieve all relevant primary studies in this regard. Journal and conference papers between the year 2003 and 2015 were considered since the first known OSS quality model emerged in 2003. A total of 19 OSS quality assessment model papers were selected. To select these models we have developed assessment criteria to evaluate the quality of the existing studies. Quality assessment models are classified into five categories based on the quality characteristics they possess namely: single-attribute, rounded category, community-only attribute, non-community attribute as well as the non-quality in use models. Our study reflects that software selection based on hierarchical structures is found to be the most popular selection method in the existing OSS quality assessment models. Furthermore, we found that majority (47%) of the existing models do not specify any domain of application. In conclusion, our study will be a valuable contribution to the community and helps the quality assessment model developers in formulating newer models and also to the practitioners (software evaluators) in selecting suitable OSS in the midst of alternatives.

  4. Peak Vertical Ground Reaction Force during Two-Leg Landing: A Systematic Review and Mathematical Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wenxin Niu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Objectives. (1 To systematically review peak vertical ground reaction force (PvGRF during two-leg drop landing from specific drop height (DH, (2 to construct a mathematical model describing correlations between PvGRF and DH, and (3 to analyze the effects of some factors on the pooled PvGRF regardless of DH. Methods. A computerized bibliographical search was conducted to extract PvGRF data on a single foot when participants landed with both feet from various DHs. An innovative mathematical model was constructed to analyze effects of gender, landing type, shoes, ankle stabilizers, surface stiffness and sample frequency on PvGRF based on the pooled data. Results. Pooled PvGRF and DH data of 26 articles showed that the square root function fits their relationship well. An experimental validation was also done on the regression equation for the medicum frequency. The PvGRF was not significantly affected by surface stiffness, but was significantly higher in men than women, the platform than suspended landing, the barefoot than shod condition, and ankle stabilizer than control condition, and higher than lower frequencies. Conclusions. The PvGRF and root DH showed a linear relationship. The mathematical modeling method with systematic review is helpful to analyze the influence factors during landing movement without considering DH.

  5. Systematic problems with using dark matter simulations to model stellar halos

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bailin, Jeremy; Bell, Eric F.; Valluri, Monica; Stinson, Greg S.; Debattista, Victor P.; Couchman, H. M. P.; Wadsley, James

    2014-01-01

    The limits of available computing power have forced models for the structure of stellar halos to adopt one or both of the following simplifying assumptions: (1) stellar mass can be 'painted' onto dark matter (DM) particles in progenitor satellites; (2) pure DM simulations that do not form a luminous galaxy can be used. We estimate the magnitude of the systematic errors introduced by these assumptions using a controlled set of stellar halo models where we independently vary whether we look at star particles or painted DM particles, and whether we use a simulation in which a baryonic disk galaxy forms or a matching pure DM simulation that does not form a baryonic disk. We find that the 'painting' simplification reduces the halo concentration and internal structure, predominantly because painted DM particles have different kinematics from star particles even when both are buried deep in the potential well of the satellite. The simplification of using pure DM simulations reduces the concentration further, but increases the internal structure, and results in a more prolate stellar halo. These differences can be a factor of 1.5-7 in concentration (as measured by the half-mass radius) and 2-7 in internal density structure. Given this level of systematic uncertainty, one should be wary of overinterpreting differences between observations and the current generation of stellar halo models based on DM-only simulations when such differences are less than an order of magnitude.

  6. Dynamic epidemiological models for dengue transmission: a systematic review of structural approaches.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mathieu Andraud

    Full Text Available Dengue is a vector-borne disease recognized as the major arbovirose with four immunologically distant dengue serotypes coexisting in many endemic areas. Several mathematical models have been developed to understand the transmission dynamics of dengue, including the role of cross-reactive antibodies for the four different dengue serotypes. We aimed to review deterministic models of dengue transmission, in order to summarize the evolution of insights for, and provided by, such models, and to identify important characteristics for future model development. We identified relevant publications using PubMed and ISI Web of Knowledge, focusing on mathematical deterministic models of dengue transmission. Model assumptions were systematically extracted from each reviewed model structure, and were linked with their underlying epidemiological concepts. After defining common terms in vector-borne disease modelling, we generally categorised fourty-two published models of interest into single serotype and multiserotype models. The multi-serotype models assumed either vector-host or direct host-to-host transmission (ignoring the vector component. For each approach, we discussed the underlying structural and parameter assumptions, threshold behaviour and the projected impact of interventions. In view of the expected availability of dengue vaccines, modelling approaches will increasingly focus on the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of vaccination options. For this purpose, the level of representation of the vector and host populations seems pivotal. Since vector-host transmission models would be required for projections of combined vaccination and vector control interventions, we advocate their use as most relevant to advice health policy in the future. The limited understanding of the factors which influence dengue transmission as well as limited data availability remain important concerns when applying dengue models to real-world decision problems.

  7. Systematic model for lean product development implementation in an automotive related company

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Osezua Aikhuele

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Lean product development is a major innovative business strategy that employs sets of practices to achieve an efficient, innovative and a sustainable product development. Despite the many benefits and high hopes in the lean strategy, many companies are still struggling, and unable to either achieve or sustain substantial positive results with their lean implementation efforts. However, as the first step towards addressing this issue, this paper seeks to propose a systematic model that considers the administrative and implementation limitations of lean thinking practices in the product development process. The model which is based on the integration of fuzzy Shannon’s entropy and Modified Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to the Ideal Solution (M-TOPSIS model for the lean product development practices implementation with respective to different criteria including management and leadership, financial capabilities, skills and expertise and organization culture, provides a guide or roadmap for product development managers on the lean implementation route.

  8. Risk Prediction Models for Incident Heart Failure: A Systematic Review of Methodology and Model Performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahle, Berhe W; Owen, Alice J; Chin, Ken Lee; Reid, Christopher M

    2017-09-01

    Numerous models predicting the risk of incident heart failure (HF) have been developed; however, evidence of their methodological rigor and reporting remains unclear. This study critically appraises the methods underpinning incident HF risk prediction models. EMBASE and PubMed were searched for articles published between 1990 and June 2016 that reported at least 1 multivariable model for prediction of HF. Model development information, including study design, variable coding, missing data, and predictor selection, was extracted. Nineteen studies reporting 40 risk prediction models were included. Existing models have acceptable discriminative ability (C-statistics > 0.70), although only 6 models were externally validated. Candidate variable selection was based on statistical significance from a univariate screening in 11 models, whereas it was unclear in 12 models. Continuous predictors were retained in 16 models, whereas it was unclear how continuous variables were handled in 16 models. Missing values were excluded in 19 of 23 models that reported missing data, and the number of events per variable was models. Only 2 models presented recommended regression equations. There was significant heterogeneity in discriminative ability of models with respect to age (P prediction models that had sufficient discriminative ability, although few are externally validated. Methods not recommended for the conduct and reporting of risk prediction modeling were frequently used, and resulting algorithms should be applied with caution. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. The Perception of Time Is Underestimated in Adolescents With Anorexia Nervosa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carmelo M. Vicario

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Research has revealed reduced temporal discounting (i.e., increased capacity to delay reward and altered interoceptive awareness in anorexia nervosa (AN. In line with the research linking temporal underestimation with a reduced tendency to devalue a reward and reduced interoceptive awareness, we tested the hypothesis that time duration might be underestimated in AN. Our findings revealed that patients with AN displayed lower timing accuracy in the form of timing underestimation compared with controls. These results were not predicted by clinical, demographic factors, attention, and working memory performance of the participants. The evidence of a temporal underestimation bias in AN might be clinically relevant to explain their abnormal motivation in pursuing a long-term restrictive diet, in line with the evidence that increasing the subjective temporal proximity of remote future goals can boost motivation and the actual behavior to reach them.

  10. Stress Underestimation and Mental Health Outcomes in Male Japanese Workers: a 1-Year Prospective Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Izawa, Shuhei; Nakamura-Taira, Nanako; Yamada, Kosuke Chris

    2016-12-01

    Being appropriately aware of the extent of stress experienced in daily life is essential in motivating stress management behaviours. Excessive stress underestimation obstructs this process, which is expected to exert adverse effects on health. We prospectively examined associations between stress underestimation and mental health outcomes in Japanese workers. Web-based surveys were conducted twice with an interval of 1 year on 2359 Japanese male workers. Participants were asked to complete survey items concerning stress underestimation, depressive symptoms, sickness absence, and antidepressant use. Multiple logistic regression analysis revealed that high baseline levels of 'overgeneralization of stress' and 'insensitivity to stress' were significantly associated with new-onset depressive symptoms (OR = 2.66 [95 % CI, 1.54-4.59], p stress underestimation, including stress insensitivity and the overgeneralization of stress, could exert adverse effects on mental health.

  11. The Perception of Time Is Underestimated in Adolescents With Anorexia Nervosa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vicario, Carmelo M; Felmingham, Kim

    2018-01-01

    Research has revealed reduced temporal discounting (i.e., increased capacity to delay reward) and altered interoceptive awareness in anorexia nervosa (AN). In line with the research linking temporal underestimation with a reduced tendency to devalue a reward and reduced interoceptive awareness, we tested the hypothesis that time duration might be underestimated in AN. Our findings revealed that patients with AN displayed lower timing accuracy in the form of timing underestimation compared with controls. These results were not predicted by clinical, demographic factors, attention, and working memory performance of the participants. The evidence of a temporal underestimation bias in AN might be clinically relevant to explain their abnormal motivation in pursuing a long-term restrictive diet, in line with the evidence that increasing the subjective temporal proximity of remote future goals can boost motivation and the actual behavior to reach them.

  12. Modeling Systematic Change in Stopover Duration Does Not Improve Bias in Trends Estimated from Migration Counts.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tara L Crewe

    Full Text Available The use of counts of unmarked migrating animals to monitor long term population trends assumes independence of daily counts and a constant rate of detection. However, migratory stopovers often last days or weeks, violating the assumption of count independence. Further, a systematic change in stopover duration will result in a change in the probability of detecting individuals once, but also in the probability of detecting individuals on more than one sampling occasion. We tested how variation in stopover duration influenced accuracy and precision of population trends by simulating migration count data with known constant rate of population change and by allowing daily probability of survival (an index of stopover duration to remain constant, or to vary randomly, cyclically, or increase linearly over time by various levels. Using simulated datasets with a systematic increase in stopover duration, we also tested whether any resulting bias in population trend could be reduced by modeling the underlying source of variation in detection, or by subsampling data to every three or five days to reduce the incidence of recounting. Mean bias in population trend did not differ significantly from zero when stopover duration remained constant or varied randomly over time, but bias and the detection of false trends increased significantly with a systematic increase in stopover duration. Importantly, an increase in stopover duration over time resulted in a compounding effect on counts due to the increased probability of detection and of recounting on subsequent sampling occasions. Under this scenario, bias in population trend could not be modeled using a covariate for stopover duration alone. Rather, to improve inference drawn about long term population change using counts of unmarked migrants, analyses must include a covariate for stopover duration, as well as incorporate sampling modifications (e.g., subsampling to reduce the probability that individuals will

  13. Transition between process models (BPMN and service models (WS-BPEL and other standards: A systematic review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marko Jurišić

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available BPMN and BPEL have become de facto standards for modeling of business processes and imple-mentation of business processes via Web services. There is a quintessential problem of discrep-ancy between these two approaches as they are applied in different phases of lifecycle and theirfundamental concepts are different — BPMN is a graph based language while BPEL is basicallya block-based programming language. This paper shows basic concepts and gives an overviewof research and ideas which emerged during last two years, presents state of the art and possiblefuture research directions. Systematic literature review was performed and critical review wasgiven regarding the potential of the given solutions.

  14. Stress underestimation and mental health literacy of depression in Japanese workers: A cross-sectional study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakamura-Taira, Nanako; Izawa, Shuhei; Yamada, Kosuke Chris

    2018-04-01

    Appropriately estimating stress levels in daily life is important for motivating people to undertake stress-management behaviors or seek out information on stress management and mental health. People who exhibit high stress underestimation might not be interested in information on mental health, and would therefore have less knowledge of it. We investigated the association between stress underestimation tendency and mental health literacy of depression (i.e., knowledge of the recognition, prognosis, and usefulness of resources of depression) in Japanese workers. We cross-sectionally surveyed 3718 Japanese workers using a web-based questionnaire on stress underestimation, mental health literacy of depression (vignettes on people with depression), and covariates (age, education, depressive symptoms, income, and worksite size). After adjusting for covariates, high stress underestimation was associated with greater odds of not recognizing depression (i.e., choosing anything other than depression). Furthermore, these individuals had greater odds of expecting the case to improve without treatment and not selecting useful sources of support (e.g. talk over with friends/family, see a psychiatrist, take medication, see a counselor) compared to those with moderate stress underestimation. These relationships were all stronger among males than among females. Stress underestimation was related to poorer mental health literacy of depression. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. A Systematic Review of Cost-Effectiveness Models in Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henriksson, Martin; Jindal, Ramandeep; Sternhufvud, Catarina; Bergenheim, Klas; Sörstadius, Elisabeth; Willis, Michael

    2016-06-01

    Critiques of cost-effectiveness modelling in type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) are scarce and are often undertaken in combination with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) models. However, T1DM is a separate disease, and it is therefore important to appraise modelling methods in T1DM. This review identified published economic models in T1DM and provided an overview of the characteristics and capabilities of available models, thus enabling a discussion of best-practice modelling approaches in T1DM. A systematic review of Embase(®), MEDLINE(®), MEDLINE(®) In-Process, and NHS EED was conducted to identify available models in T1DM. Key conferences and health technology assessment (HTA) websites were also reviewed. The characteristics of each model (e.g. model structure, simulation method, handling of uncertainty, incorporation of treatment effect, data for risk equations, and validation procedures, based on information in the primary publication) were extracted, with a focus on model capabilities. We identified 13 unique models. Overall, the included studies varied greatly in scope as well as in the quality and quantity of information reported, but six of the models (Archimedes, CDM [Core Diabetes Model], CRC DES [Cardiff Research Consortium Discrete Event Simulation], DCCT [Diabetes Control and Complications Trial], Sheffield, and EAGLE [Economic Assessment of Glycaemic control and Long-term Effects of diabetes]) were the most rigorous and thoroughly reported. Most models were Markov based, and cohort and microsimulation methods were equally common. All of the more comprehensive models employed microsimulation methods. Model structure varied widely, with the more holistic models providing a comprehensive approach to microvascular and macrovascular events, as well as including adverse events. The majority of studies reported a lifetime horizon, used a payer perspective, and had the capability for sensitivity analysis. Several models have been developed that provide useful

  16. What Makes Hydrologic Models Differ? Using SUMMA to Systematically Explore Model Uncertainty and Error

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennett, A.; Nijssen, B.; Chegwidden, O.; Wood, A.; Clark, M. P.

    2017-12-01

    Model intercomparison experiments have been conducted to quantify the variability introduced during the model development process, but have had limited success in identifying the sources of this model variability. The Structure for Unifying Multiple Modeling Alternatives (SUMMA) has been developed as a framework which defines a general set of conservation equations for mass and energy as well as a common core of numerical solvers along with the ability to set options for choosing between different spatial discretizations and flux parameterizations. SUMMA can be thought of as a framework for implementing meta-models which allows for the investigation of the impacts of decisions made during the model development process. Through this flexibility we develop a hierarchy of definitions which allows for models to be compared to one another. This vocabulary allows us to define the notion of weak equivalence between model instantiations. Through this weak equivalence we develop the concept of model mimicry, which can be used to investigate the introduction of uncertainty and error during the modeling process as well as provide a framework for identifying modeling decisions which may complement or negate one another. We instantiate SUMMA instances that mimic the behaviors of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model and the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) by choosing modeling decisions which are implemented in each model. We compare runs from these models and their corresponding mimics across the Columbia River Basin located in the Pacific Northwest of the United States and Canada. From these comparisons, we are able to determine the extent to which model implementation has an effect on the results, as well as determine the changes in sensitivity of parameters due to these implementation differences. By examining these changes in results and sensitivities we can attempt to postulate changes in the modeling decisions which may provide better estimation of

  17. A systematic review of models to predict recruitment to multicentre clinical trials

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cook Andrew

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Less than one third of publicly funded trials managed to recruit according to their original plan often resulting in request for additional funding and/or time extensions. The aim was to identify models which might be useful to a major public funder of randomised controlled trials when estimating likely time requirements for recruiting trial participants. The requirements of a useful model were identified as usability, based on experience, able to reflect time trends, accounting for centre recruitment and contribution to a commissioning decision. Methods A systematic review of English language articles using MEDLINE and EMBASE. Search terms included: randomised controlled trial, patient, accrual, predict, enrol, models, statistical; Bayes Theorem; Decision Theory; Monte Carlo Method and Poisson. Only studies discussing prediction of recruitment to trials using a modelling approach were included. Information was extracted from articles by one author, and checked by a second, using a pre-defined form. Results Out of 326 identified abstracts, only 8 met all the inclusion criteria. Of these 8 studies examined, there are five major classes of model discussed: the unconditional model, the conditional model, the Poisson model, Bayesian models and Monte Carlo simulation of Markov models. None of these meet all the pre-identified needs of the funder. Conclusions To meet the needs of a number of research programmes, a new model is required as a matter of importance. Any model chosen should be validated against both retrospective and prospective data, to ensure the predictions it gives are superior to those currently used.

  18. Ecological validity of cost-effectiveness models of universal HPV vaccination: A systematic literature review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Favato, Giampiero; Easton, Tania; Vecchiato, Riccardo; Noikokyris, Emmanouil

    2017-05-09

    The protective (herd) effect of the selective vaccination of pubertal girls against human papillomavirus (HPV) implies a high probability that one of the two partners involved in intercourse is immunised, hence preventing the other from this sexually transmitted infection. The dynamic transmission models used to inform immunisation policy should include consideration of sexual behaviours and population mixing in order to demonstrate an ecological validity, whereby the scenarios modelled remain faithful to the real-life social and cultural context. The primary aim of this review is to test the ecological validity of the universal HPV vaccination cost-effectiveness modelling available in the published literature. The research protocol related to this systematic review has been registered in the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO: CRD42016034145). Eight published economic evaluations were reviewed. None of the studies showed due consideration of the complexities of human sexual behaviour and the impact this may have on the transmission of HPV. Our findings indicate that all the included models might be affected by a different degree of ecological bias, which implies an inability to reflect the natural demographic and behavioural trends in their outcomes and, consequently, to accurately inform public healthcare policy. In particular, ecological bias have the effect to over-estimate the preference-based outcomes of selective immunisation. A relatively small (15-20%) over-estimation of quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained with selective immunisation programmes could induce a significant error in the estimate of cost-effectiveness of universal immunisation, by inflating its incremental cost effectiveness ratio (ICER) beyond the acceptability threshold. The results modelled here demonstrate the limitations of the cost-effectiveness studies for HPV vaccination, and highlight the concern that public healthcare policy might have been

  19. Health literacy and public health: A systematic review and integration of definitions and models

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Sorensen, Kristine

    2012-01-25

    Abstract Background Health literacy concerns the knowledge and competences of persons to meet the complex demands of health in modern society. Although its importance is increasingly recognised, there is no consensus about the definition of health literacy or about its conceptual dimensions, which limits the possibilities for measurement and comparison. The aim of the study is to review definitions and models on health literacy to develop an integrated definition and conceptual model capturing the most comprehensive evidence-based dimensions of health literacy. Methods A systematic literature review was performed to identify definitions and conceptual frameworks of health literacy. A content analysis of the definitions and conceptual frameworks was carried out to identify the central dimensions of health literacy and develop an integrated model. Results The review resulted in 17 definitions of health literacy and 12 conceptual models. Based on the content analysis, an integrative conceptual model was developed containing 12 dimensions referring to the knowledge, motivation and competencies of accessing, understanding, appraising and applying health-related information within the healthcare, disease prevention and health promotion setting, respectively. Conclusions Based upon this review, a model is proposed integrating medical and public health views of health literacy. The model can serve as a basis for developing health literacy enhancing interventions and provide a conceptual basis for the development and validation of measurement tools, capturing the different dimensions of health literacy within the healthcare, disease prevention and health promotion settings.

  20. A Systematic Approach to Determining the Identifiability of Multistage Carcinogenesis Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brouwer, Andrew F; Meza, Rafael; Eisenberg, Marisa C

    2017-07-01

    Multistage clonal expansion (MSCE) models of carcinogenesis are continuous-time Markov process models often used to relate cancer incidence to biological mechanism. Identifiability analysis determines what model parameter combinations can, theoretically, be estimated from given data. We use a systematic approach, based on differential algebra methods traditionally used for deterministic ordinary differential equation (ODE) models, to determine identifiable combinations for a generalized subclass of MSCE models with any number of preinitation stages and one clonal expansion. Additionally, we determine the identifiable combinations of the generalized MSCE model with up to four clonal expansion stages, and conjecture the results for any number of clonal expansion stages. The results improve upon previous work in a number of ways and provide a framework to find the identifiable combinations for further variations on the MSCE models. Finally, our approach, which takes advantage of the Kolmogorov backward equations for the probability generating functions of the Markov process, demonstrates that identifiability methods used in engineering and mathematics for systems of ODEs can be applied to continuous-time Markov processes. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

  1. A critical comparison of systematic calibration protocols for activated sludge models: a SWOT analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sin, Gürkan; Van Hulle, Stijn W H; De Pauw, Dirk J W; van Griensven, Ann; Vanrolleghem, Peter A

    2005-07-01

    Modelling activated sludge systems has gained an increasing momentum after the introduction of activated sludge models (ASMs) in 1987. Application of dynamic models for full-scale systems requires essentially a calibration of the chosen ASM to the case under study. Numerous full-scale model applications have been performed so far which were mostly based on ad hoc approaches and expert knowledge. Further, each modelling study has followed a different calibration approach: e.g. different influent wastewater characterization methods, different kinetic parameter estimation methods, different selection of parameters to be calibrated, different priorities within the calibration steps, etc. In short, there was no standard approach in performing the calibration study, which makes it difficult, if not impossible, to (1) compare different calibrations of ASMs with each other and (2) perform internal quality checks for each calibration study. To address these concerns, systematic calibration protocols have recently been proposed to bring guidance to the modeling of activated sludge systems and in particular to the calibration of full-scale models. In this contribution four existing calibration approaches (BIOMATH, HSG, STOWA and WERF) will be critically discussed using a SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats) analysis. It will also be assessed in what way these approaches can be further developed in view of further improving the quality of ASM calibration. In this respect, the potential of automating some steps of the calibration procedure by use of mathematical algorithms is highlighted.

  2. A comprehensive model for executing knowledge management audits in organizations: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shahmoradi, Leila; Ahmadi, Maryam; Sadoughi, Farahnaz; Piri, Zakieh; Gohari, Mahmood Reza

    2015-01-01

    A knowledge management audit (KMA) is the first phase in knowledge management implementation. Incomplete or incomprehensive execution of the KMA has caused many knowledge management programs to fail. A study was undertaken to investigate how KMAs are performed systematically in organizations and present a comprehensive model for performing KMAs based on a systematic review. Studies were identified by searching electronic databases such as Emerald, LISA, and the Cochrane library and e-journals such as the Oxford Journal and hand searching of printed journals, theses, and books in the Tehran University of Medical Sciences digital library. The sources used in this study consisted of studies available through the digital library of the Tehran University of Medical Sciences that were published between 2000 and 2013, including both Persian- and English-language sources, as well as articles explaining the steps involved in performing a KMA. A comprehensive model for KMAs is presented in this study. To successfully execute a KMA, it is necessary to perform the appropriate preliminary activities in relation to the knowledge management infrastructure, determine the knowledge management situation, and analyze and use the available data on this situation.

  3. Maintaining Sexual Desire in Long-Term Relationships: A Systematic Review and Conceptual Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mark, Kristen P; Lasslo, Julie A

    The most universally experienced sexual response is sexual desire. Though research on this topic has increased in recent years, low and high desire are still problematized in clinical settings and the broader culture. However, despite knowledge that sexual desire ebbs and flows both within and between individuals, and that problems with sexual desire are strongly linked to problems with relationships, there is a critical gap in understanding the factors that contribute to maintaining sexual desire in the context of relationships. This article offers a systematic review of the literature to provide researchers, educators, clinicians, and the broader public with an overview and a conceptual model of nonclinical sexual desire in long-term relationships. First, we systematically identified peer-reviewed, English-language articles that focused on the maintenance of sexual desire in the context of nonclinical romantic relationships. Second, we reviewed a total of 64 articles that met inclusion criteria and synthesized them into factors using a socioecological framework categorized as individual, interpersonal, and societal in nature. These findings are used to build a conceptual model of maintaining sexual desire in long-term relationships. Finally, we discuss the limitations of the existing research and suggest clear directions for future research.

  4. Intervention Strategies Based on Information-Motivation-Behavioral Skills Model for Health Behavior Change: A Systematic Review

    OpenAIRE

    Chang, Sun Ju; Choi, Suyoung; Kim, Se-An; Song, Misoon

    2014-01-01

    Purpose: This study systematically reviewed research on behavioral interventions based on the information-motivation-behavioral skills (IMB) model to investigate specific intervention strategies that focus on information, motivation, and behavioral skills and to evaluate their effectiveness for people with chronic diseases. Methods: A systematic review was conducted in accordance with the guidelines of both the National Evidence-based Healthcare Collaborating Agency and Im and Chang. A lit...

  5. Religion and Spirituality's Influences on HIV Syndemics Among MSM: A Systematic Review and Conceptual Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lassiter, Jonathan M; Parsons, Jeffrey T

    2016-02-01

    This paper presents a systematic review of the quantitative HIV research that assessed the relationships between religion, spirituality, HIV syndemics, and individual HIV syndemics-related health conditions (e.g. depression, substance abuse, HIV risk) among men who have sex with men (MSM) in the United States. No quantitative studies were found that assessed the relationships between HIV syndemics, religion, and spirituality. Nine studies, with 13 statistical analyses, were found that examined the relationships between individual HIV syndemics-related health conditions, religion, and spirituality. Among the 13 analyses, religion and spirituality were found to have mixed relationships with HIV syndemics-related health conditions (6 nonsignificant associations; 5 negative associations; 2 positive associations). Given the overall lack of inclusion of religion and spirituality in HIV syndemics research, a conceptual model that hypothesizes the potential interactions of religion and spirituality with HIV syndemics-related health conditions is presented. The implications of the model for MSM's health are outlined.

  6. Implementing learning organization components in Ardabil Regional Water Company based on Marquardt systematic model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shahram Mirzaie Daryani

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available This main purpose of this study was to survey the implementation of learning organization characteristics based on Marquardt systematic model in Ardabil Regional Water Company. Two hundred and four staff (164 employees and 40 authorities participated in the study. For data collection Marquardt questionnaire was used which its validity and reliability had been confirmed. The results of the data analysis showed that learning organization characteristics were used more than average level in some subsystems of Marquardt model and there was a significant difference between current position and excellent position based on learning organization characteristic application. The results of this study can be used to improve work processes of organizations and institutions.

  7. 'When measurements mean action' decision models for portal image review to eliminate systematic set-up errors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wratten, C.R.; Denham, J.W.; O; Brien, P.; Hamilton, C.S.; Kron, T.; London Regional Cancer Centre, London, Ontario

    2004-01-01

    The aim of the present paper is to evaluate how the use of decision models in the review of portal images can eliminate systematic set-up errors during conformal therapy. Sixteen patients undergoing four-field irradiation of prostate cancer have had daily portal images obtained during the first two treatment weeks and weekly thereafter. The magnitude of random and systematic variations has been calculated by comparison of the portal image with the reference simulator images using the two-dimensional decision model embodied in the Hotelling's evaluation process (HEP). Random day-to-day set-up variation was small in this group of patients. Systematic errors were, however, common. In 15 of 16 patients, one or more errors of >2 mm were diagnosed at some stage during treatment. Sixteen of the 23 errors were between 2 and 4 mm. Although there were examples of oversensitivity of the HEP in three cases, and one instance of undersensitivity, the HEP proved highly sensitive to the small (2-4 mm) systematic errors that must be eliminated during high precision radiotherapy. The HEP has proven valuable in diagnosing very small ( 4 mm) systematic errors using one-dimensional decision models, HEP can eliminate the majority of systematic errors during the first 2 treatment weeks. Copyright (2004) Blackwell Science Pty Ltd

  8. A systematic review of predictive models for asthma development in children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Gang; Nkoy, Flory L; Stone, Bryan L; Schmick, Darell; Johnson, Michael D

    2015-11-28

    Asthma is the most common pediatric chronic disease affecting 9.6 % of American children. Delay in asthma diagnosis is prevalent, resulting in suboptimal asthma management. To help avoid delay in asthma diagnosis and advance asthma prevention research, researchers have proposed various models to predict asthma development in children. This paper reviews these models. A systematic review was conducted through searching in PubMed, EMBASE, CINAHL, Scopus, the Cochrane Library, the ACM Digital Library, IEEE Xplore, and OpenGrey up to June 3, 2015. The literature on predictive models for asthma development in children was retrieved, with search results limited to human subjects and children (birth to 18 years). Two independent reviewers screened the literature, performed data extraction, and assessed article quality. The literature search returned 13,101 references in total. After manual review, 32 of these references were determined to be relevant and are discussed in the paper. We identify several limitations of existing predictive models for asthma development in children, and provide preliminary thoughts on how to address these limitations. Existing predictive models for asthma development in children have inadequate accuracy. Efforts to improve these models' performance are needed, but are limited by a lack of a gold standard for asthma development in children.

  9. Disclosing bias in bisulfite assay: MethPrimers underestimate high DNA methylation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrea Fuso

    Full Text Available Discordant results obtained in bisulfite assays using MethPrimers (PCR primers designed using MethPrimer software or assuming that non-CpGs cytosines are non methylated versus primers insensitive to cytosine methylation lead us to hypothesize a technical bias. We therefore used the two kinds of primers to study different experimental models and methylation statuses. We demonstrated that MethPrimers negatively select hypermethylated DNA sequences in the PCR step of the bisulfite assay, resulting in CpG methylation underestimation and non-CpG methylation masking, failing to evidence differential methylation statuses. We also describe the characteristics of "Methylation-Insensitive Primers" (MIPs, having degenerated bases (G/A to cope with the uncertain C/U conversion. As CpG and non-CpG DNA methylation patterns are largely variable depending on the species, developmental stage, tissue and cell type, a variable extent of the bias is expected. The more the methylome is methylated, the greater is the extent of the bias, with a prevalent effect of non-CpG methylation. These findings suggest a revision of several DNA methylation patterns so far documented and also point out the necessity of applying unbiased analyses to the increasing number of epigenomic studies.

  10. Theories, models and frameworks used in capacity building interventions relevant to public health: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bergeron, Kim; Abdi, Samiya; DeCorby, Kara; Mensah, Gloria; Rempel, Benjamin; Manson, Heather

    2017-11-28

    There is limited research on capacity building interventions that include theoretical foundations. The purpose of this systematic review is to identify underlying theories, models and frameworks used to support capacity building interventions relevant to public health practice. The aim is to inform and improve capacity building practices and services offered by public health organizations. Four search strategies were used: 1) electronic database searching; 2) reference lists of included papers; 3) key informant consultation; and 4) grey literature searching. Inclusion and exclusion criteria are outlined with included papers focusing on capacity building, learning plans, professional development plans in combination with tools, resources, processes, procedures, steps, model, framework, guideline, described in a public health or healthcare setting, or non-government, government, or community organizations as they relate to healthcare, and explicitly or implicitly mention a theory, model and/or framework that grounds the type of capacity building approach developed. Quality assessment were performed on all included articles. Data analysis included a process for synthesizing, analyzing and presenting descriptive summaries, categorizing theoretical foundations according to which theory, model and/or framework was used and whether or not the theory, model or framework was implied or explicitly identified. Nineteen articles were included in this review. A total of 28 theories, models and frameworks were identified. Of this number, two theories (Diffusion of Innovations and Transformational Learning), two models (Ecological and Interactive Systems Framework for Dissemination and Implementation) and one framework (Bloom's Taxonomy of Learning) were identified as the most frequently cited. This review identifies specific theories, models and frameworks to support capacity building interventions relevant to public health organizations. It provides public health practitioners

  11. A systematic narrative review of consumer-directed care for older people: implications for model development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ottmann, Goetz; Allen, Jacqui; Feldman, Peter

    2013-11-01

    Consumer-directed care is increasingly becoming a mainstream option in community-based aged care. However, a systematic review describing how the current evaluation research translates into practise has not been published to date. This review aimed to systematically establish an evidence base of user preferences for and satisfaction with services associated with consumer-directed care programmes for older people. Twelve databases were searched, including MedLine, BioMed Central, Cinahl, Expanded Academic ASAP, PsychInfo, ProQuest, Age Line, Science Direct, Social Citation Index, Sociological Abstracts, Web of Science and the Cochrane Library. Google Scholar and Google were also searched. Eligible studies were those reporting on choice, user preferences and service satisfaction outcomes regarding a programme or model of home-based care in the United States or United Kingdom. This systematic narrative review retrieved literature published from January 1992 to August 2011. A total of 277 references were identified. Of these 17 met the selection criteria and were reviewed. Findings indicate that older people report varying preferences for consumer-directed care with some demonstrating limited interest. Clients and carers reported good service satisfaction. However, research comparing user preferences across countries or investigating how ecological factors shape user preferences has received limited attention. Policy-makers and practitioners need to carefully consider the diverse contexts, needs and preferences of older adults in adopting consumer-directed care approaches in community aged care. The review calls for the development of consumer-directed care programmes offering a broad range of options that allow for personalisation and greater control over services without necessarily transferring the responsibility for administrative responsibilities to service users. Review findings suggest that consumer-directed care approaches have the potential to empower older

  12. External validation of multivariable prediction models: a systematic review of methodological conduct and reporting

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-01-01

    Background Before considering whether to use a multivariable (diagnostic or prognostic) prediction model, it is essential that its performance be evaluated in data that were not used to develop the model (referred to as external validation). We critically appraised the methodological conduct and reporting of external validation studies of multivariable prediction models. Methods We conducted a systematic review of articles describing some form of external validation of one or more multivariable prediction models indexed in PubMed core clinical journals published in 2010. Study data were extracted in duplicate on design, sample size, handling of missing data, reference to the original study developing the prediction models and predictive performance measures. Results 11,826 articles were identified and 78 were included for full review, which described the evaluation of 120 prediction models. in participant data that were not used to develop the model. Thirty-three articles described both the development of a prediction model and an evaluation of its performance on a separate dataset, and 45 articles described only the evaluation of an existing published prediction model on another dataset. Fifty-seven percent of the prediction models were presented and evaluated as simplified scoring systems. Sixteen percent of articles failed to report the number of outcome events in the validation datasets. Fifty-four percent of studies made no explicit mention of missing data. Sixty-seven percent did not report evaluating model calibration whilst most studies evaluated model discrimination. It was often unclear whether the reported performance measures were for the full regression model or for the simplified models. Conclusions The vast majority of studies describing some form of external validation of a multivariable prediction model were poorly reported with key details frequently not presented. The validation studies were characterised by poor design, inappropriate handling

  13. Parental and Child Factors Associated with Under-Estimation of Children with Excess Weight in Spain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Ruiter, Ingrid; Olmedo-Requena, Rocío; Jiménez-Moleón, José Juan

    2017-11-01

    Objective Understanding obesity misperception and associated factors can improve strategies to increase obesity identification and intervention. We investigate underestimation of child excess weight with a broader perspective, incorporating perceptions, views, and psychosocial aspects associated with obesity. Methods This study used cross-sectional data from the Spanish National Health Survey in 2011-2012 for children aged 2-14 years who are overweight or obese. Percentages of parental misperceived excess weight were calculated. Crude and adjusted analyses were performed for both child and parental factors analyzing associations with underestimation. Results Two-five year olds have the highest prevalence of misperceived overweight or obesity around 90%. In the 10-14 year old age group approximately 63% of overweight teens were misperceived as normal weight and 35.7 and 40% of obese males and females. Child gender did not affect underestimation, whereas a younger age did. Aspects of child social and mental health were associated with under-estimation, as was short sleep duration. Exercise, weekend TV and videogames, and food habits had no effect on underestimation. Fathers were more likely to misperceive their child´s weight status; however parent's age had no effect. Smokers and parents with excess weight were less likely to misperceive their child´s weight status. Parents being on a diet also decreased odds of underestimation. Conclusions for practice This study identifies some characteristics of both parents and children which are associated with under-estimation of child excess weight. These characteristics can be used for consideration in primary care, prevention strategies and for further research.

  14. A systematic study of multiple minerals precipitation modelling in wastewater treatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kazadi Mbamba, Christian; Tait, Stephan; Flores-Alsina, Xavier; Batstone, Damien J

    2015-11-15

    Mineral solids precipitation is important in wastewater treatment. However approaches to minerals precipitation modelling are varied, often empirical, and mostly focused on single precipitate classes. A common approach, applicable to multi-species precipitates, is needed to integrate into existing wastewater treatment models. The present study systematically tested a semi-mechanistic modelling approach, using various experimental platforms with multiple minerals precipitation. Experiments included dynamic titration with addition of sodium hydroxide to synthetic wastewater, and aeration to progressively increase pH and induce precipitation in real piggery digestate and sewage sludge digestate. The model approach consisted of an equilibrium part for aqueous phase reactions and a kinetic part for minerals precipitation. The model was fitted to dissolved calcium, magnesium, total inorganic carbon and phosphate. Results indicated that precipitation was dominated by the mineral struvite, forming together with varied and minor amounts of calcium phosphate and calcium carbonate. The model approach was noted to have the advantage of requiring a minimal number of fitted parameters, so the model was readily identifiable. Kinetic rate coefficients, which were statistically fitted, were generally in the range 0.35-11.6 h(-1) with confidence intervals of 10-80% relative. Confidence regions for the kinetic rate coefficients were often asymmetric with model-data residuals increasing more gradually with larger coefficient values. This suggests that a large kinetic coefficient could be used when actual measured data is lacking for a particular precipitate-matrix combination. Correlation between the kinetic rate coefficients of different minerals was low, indicating that parameter values for individual minerals could be independently fitted (keeping all other model parameters constant). Implementation was therefore relatively flexible, and would be readily expandable to include other

  15. Anxiety in the context of cancer: A systematic review and development of an integrated model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curran, Leah; Sharpe, Louise; Butow, Phyllis

    2017-08-01

    Anxiety is common in the context of cancer, but there are few theoretical models that apply to people with cancer across the trajectory of their illness. The aims of this review are to identify existing theories and to propose an integrated model of cancer-related anxiety. Using a systematic literature search of Medline, Premedline and PsycINFO databases, we identified nine theoretical models of anxiety in the context of cancer. We reviewed these for psychological concepts that fell under five themes: pre-existing schema, the inherent nature of cancer, cognitive factors, coping responses and contextual factors. From these themes, we integrated concepts from different models to develop a theoretical framework to explain the development and maintenance of anxiety in the context of cancer. The resulting model suggests that pre-existing schema, past experiences of cancer, an intolerance of uncertainty and meta-cognitive beliefs about worry interact with the inherent nature of cancer to produce overwhelming distress. The distress activates cognitive processes characterized by vigilance, worry and rumination. Attempts to cope by re-establishing control, and a pattern of vigilance to cancer-related cues and/or avoidance reinforce anxiety, in the context of a range of systemic factors that can either buffer against or worsen the anxiety. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  16. A systematic investigation of computation models for predicting Adverse Drug Reactions (ADRs.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qifan Kuang

    Full Text Available Early and accurate identification of adverse drug reactions (ADRs is critically important for drug development and clinical safety. Computer-aided prediction of ADRs has attracted increasing attention in recent years, and many computational models have been proposed. However, because of the lack of systematic analysis and comparison of the different computational models, there remain limitations in designing more effective algorithms and selecting more useful features. There is therefore an urgent need to review and analyze previous computation models to obtain general conclusions that can provide useful guidance to construct more effective computational models to predict ADRs.In the current study, the main work is to compare and analyze the performance of existing computational methods to predict ADRs, by implementing and evaluating additional algorithms that have been earlier used for predicting drug targets. Our results indicated that topological and intrinsic features were complementary to an extent and the Jaccard coefficient had an important and general effect on the prediction of drug-ADR associations. By comparing the structure of each algorithm, final formulas of these algorithms were all converted to linear model in form, based on this finding we propose a new algorithm called the general weighted profile method and it yielded the best overall performance among the algorithms investigated in this paper.Several meaningful conclusions and useful findings regarding the prediction of ADRs are provided for selecting optimal features and algorithms.

  17. A systematic investigation of computation models for predicting Adverse Drug Reactions (ADRs).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuang, Qifan; Wang, MinQi; Li, Rong; Dong, YongCheng; Li, Yizhou; Li, Menglong

    2014-01-01

    Early and accurate identification of adverse drug reactions (ADRs) is critically important for drug development and clinical safety. Computer-aided prediction of ADRs has attracted increasing attention in recent years, and many computational models have been proposed. However, because of the lack of systematic analysis and comparison of the different computational models, there remain limitations in designing more effective algorithms and selecting more useful features. There is therefore an urgent need to review and analyze previous computation models to obtain general conclusions that can provide useful guidance to construct more effective computational models to predict ADRs. In the current study, the main work is to compare and analyze the performance of existing computational methods to predict ADRs, by implementing and evaluating additional algorithms that have been earlier used for predicting drug targets. Our results indicated that topological and intrinsic features were complementary to an extent and the Jaccard coefficient had an important and general effect on the prediction of drug-ADR associations. By comparing the structure of each algorithm, final formulas of these algorithms were all converted to linear model in form, based on this finding we propose a new algorithm called the general weighted profile method and it yielded the best overall performance among the algorithms investigated in this paper. Several meaningful conclusions and useful findings regarding the prediction of ADRs are provided for selecting optimal features and algorithms.

  18. A systematic composite service design modeling method using graph-based theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elhag, Arafat Abdulgader Mohammed; Mohamad, Radziah; Aziz, Muhammad Waqar; Zeshan, Furkh

    2015-01-01

    The composite service design modeling is an essential process of the service-oriented software development life cycle, where the candidate services, composite services, operations and their dependencies are required to be identified and specified before their design. However, a systematic service-oriented design modeling method for composite services is still in its infancy as most of the existing approaches provide the modeling of atomic services only. For these reasons, a new method (ComSDM) is proposed in this work for modeling the concept of service-oriented design to increase the reusability and decrease the complexity of system while keeping the service composition considerations in mind. Furthermore, the ComSDM method provides the mathematical representation of the components of service-oriented design using the graph-based theoryto facilitate the design quality measurement. To demonstrate that the ComSDM method is also suitable for composite service design modeling of distributed embedded real-time systems along with enterprise software development, it is implemented in the case study of a smart home. The results of the case study not only check the applicability of ComSDM, but can also be used to validate the complexity and reusability of ComSDM. This also guides the future research towards the design quality measurement such as using the ComSDM method to measure the quality of composite service design in service-oriented software system.

  19. A comprehensive, consistent and systematic mathematical model of PEM fuel cells

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baschuk, J.J.; Li Xianguo

    2009-01-01

    This paper presents a comprehensive, consistent and systematic mathematical model for PEM fuel cells that can be used as the general formulation for the simulation and analysis of PEM fuel cells. As an illustration, the model is applied to an isothermal, steady state, two-dimensional PEM fuel cell. Water is assumed to be in either the gas phase or as a liquid phase in the pores of the polymer electrolyte. The model includes the transport of gas in the gas flow channels, electrode backing and catalyst layers; the transport of water and hydronium in the polymer electrolyte of the catalyst and polymer electrolyte layers; and the transport of electrical current in the solid phase. Water and ion transport in the polymer electrolyte was modeled using the generalized Stefan-Maxwell equations, based on non-equilibrium thermodynamics. Model simulations show that the bulk, convective gas velocity facilitates hydrogen transport from the gas flow channels to the anode catalyst layers, but inhibits oxygen transport. While some of the water required by the anode is supplied by the water produced in the cathode, the majority of water must be supplied by the anode gas phase, making operation with fully humidified reactants necessary. The length of the gas flow channel has a significant effect on the current production of the PEM fuel cell, with a longer channel length having a lower performance relative to a shorter channel length. This lower performance is caused by a greater variation in water content within the longer channel length

  20. An extended systematic mapping study about the scalability of i* Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paulo Lima

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available i* models have been used for requirements specification in many domains, such as healthcare, telecommunication, and air traffic control. Managing the scalability and the complexity of such models is an important challenge in Requirements Engineering (RE. Scalability is also one of the most intractable issues in the design of visual notations in general: a well-known problem with visual representations is that they do not scale well. This issue has led us to investigate scalability in i* models and its variants by means of a systematic mapping study. This paper is an extended version of a previous paper on the scalability of i* including papers indicated by specialists. Moreover, we also discuss the challenges and open issues regarding scalability of i* models and its variants. A total of 126 papers were analyzed in order to understand: how the RE community perceives scalability; and which proposals have considered this topic. We found that scalability issues are indeed perceived as relevant and that further work is still required, even though many potential solutions have already been proposed. This study can be a starting point for researchers aiming to further advance the treatment of scalability in i* models.

  1. A systematic approach to obtain validated Partial Least Square models for predicting lipoprotein subclasses from serum NMR spectra

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mihaleva, V.V.; van Schalkwijk, D.B.; de Graaf, A.A.; van Duynhoven, J.; van Dorsten, F.A.; Vervoort, J.; Smilde, A.; Westerhuis, J.A.; Jacobs, D.M.

    2014-01-01

    A systematic approach is described for building validated PLS models that predict cholesterol and triglyceride concentrations in lipoprotein subclasses in fasting serum from a normolipidemic, healthy population. The PLS models were built on diffusion-edited 1H NMR spectra and calibrated on

  2. A systematic approach to obtain validated partial least square models for predicting lipoprotein subclasses from serum NMR spectra

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mihaleva, V.V.; Schalkwijk, van D.B.; Graaf, de A.A.; Duynhoven, van J.P.M.; Dorsten, van F.A.; Vervoort, J.J.M.; Smilde, A.K.; Westerhuis, J.A.; Jacobs, D.M.

    2014-01-01

    A systematic approach is described for building validated PLS models that predict cholesterol and triglyceride concentrations in lipoprotein subclasses in fasting serum from a normolipidemic, healthy population. The PLS models were built on diffusion-edited (1)H NMR spectra and calibrated on

  3. A systematic approach to obtain validated partial least square models for predicting lipoprotein subclasses from serum nmr spectra

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mihaleva, V.V.; Schalkwijk, D.B. van; Graaf, A.A. de; Duynhoven, J. van; Dorsten, F.A. van; Vervoort, J.; Smilde, A.; Westerhuis, J.A.; Jacobs, D.M.

    2014-01-01

    A systematic approach is described for building validated PLS models that predict cholesterol and triglyceride concentrations in lipoprotein subclasses in fasting serum from a normolipidemic, healthy population. The PLS models were built on diffusion-edited 1H NMR spectra and calibrated on

  4. Systematizing Web Search through a Meta-Cognitive, Systems-Based, Information Structuring Model (McSIS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abuhamdieh, Ayman H.; Harder, Joseph T.

    2015-01-01

    This paper proposes a meta-cognitive, systems-based, information structuring model (McSIS) to systematize online information search behavior based on literature review of information-seeking models. The General Systems Theory's (GST) prepositions serve as its framework. Factors influencing information-seekers, such as the individual learning…

  5. [Skilled communication as "intervention" : Models for systematic communication in the healthcare system].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weinert, M; Mayer, H; Zojer, E

    2015-02-01

    Specific communication training is currently not integrated into anesthesiology curricula. At the same time communication is an important key factor when working with colleagues, in the physician-patient relationship, during management of emergencies and in avoiding or reducing the legal consequences of adverse medical events. Therefore, focused attention should be brought to this area. In other high risk industries, specific communication training has been standard for a long time and in medicine there is an approach to teach and train these soft skills by simulation. Systematic communication training, however, is rarely an established component of specialist training. It is impossible not to communicate whereby nonverbal indications, such as gestures, mimic expression, posture and tone play an important part. Miscommunication, however, is common and leads to unproductive behavior. The cause of this is not always obvious. This article provides an overview of the communication models of Shannon, Watzlawick et al. and Schulz von Thun et al. and describes their limitations. The "Process Communication Model®" (PCM) is also introduced. An overview is provided with examples of how this tool can be used to look at the communication process from a systematic point of view. People have different psychological needs. Not taking care of these needs will result in individual stress behavior, which can be graded into first, second and third degrees of severity (driver behavior, mask behavior and desperation). These behavior patterns become exposed in predictable sequences. Furthermore, on the basis of this model, successful communication can be established while unproductive behavior that occurs during stress can be dealt with appropriately. Because of the importance of communication in all areas of medical care, opportunities exist to focus research on the influence of targeted communication on patient outcome, complications and management of emergencies.

  6. Policy-Relevant Systematic Reviews to Strengthen Health Systems: Models and Mechanisms to Support Their Production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oliver, Sandra; Dickson, Kelly

    2016-01-01

    Support for producing systematic reviews about health systems is less well developed than for those about clinical practice. From interviewing policy makers and systematic reviewers we identified institutional mechanisms which bring systematic reviews and policy priorities closer by harnessing organisational and individual motivations, emphasising…

  7. Mathematical models used to inform study design or surveillance systems in infectious diseases: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herzog, Sereina A; Blaizot, Stéphanie; Hens, Niel

    2017-12-18

    Mathematical models offer the possibility to investigate the infectious disease dynamics over time and may help in informing design of studies. A systematic review was performed in order to determine to what extent mathematical models have been incorporated into the process of planning studies and hence inform study design for infectious diseases transmitted between humans and/or animals. We searched Ovid Medline and two trial registry platforms (Cochrane, WHO) using search terms related to infection, mathematical model, and study design from the earliest dates to October 2016. Eligible publications and registered trials included mathematical models (compartmental, individual-based, or Markov) which were described and used to inform the design of infectious disease studies. We extracted information about the investigated infection, population, model characteristics, and study design. We identified 28 unique publications but no registered trials. Focusing on compartmental and individual-based models we found 12 observational/surveillance studies and 11 clinical trials. Infections studied were equally animal and human infectious diseases for the observational/surveillance studies, while all but one between humans for clinical trials. The mathematical models were used to inform, amongst other things, the required sample size (n = 16), the statistical power (n = 9), the frequency at which samples should be taken (n = 6), and from whom (n = 6). Despite the fact that mathematical models have been advocated to be used at the planning stage of studies or surveillance systems, they are used scarcely. With only one exception, the publications described theoretical studies, hence, not being utilised in real studies.

  8. A systematic comparison of recurrent event models for application to composite endpoints.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ozga, Ann-Kathrin; Kieser, Meinhard; Rauch, Geraldine

    2018-01-04

    Many clinical trials focus on the comparison of the treatment effect between two or more groups concerning a rarely occurring event. In this situation, showing a relevant effect with an acceptable power requires the observation of a large number of patients over a long period of time. For feasibility issues, it is therefore often considered to include several event types of interest, non-fatal or fatal, and to combine them within a composite endpoint. Commonly, a composite endpoint is analyzed with standard survival analysis techniques by assessing the time to the first occurring event. This approach neglects that an individual may experience more than one event which leads to a loss of information. As an alternative, composite endpoints could be analyzed by models for recurrent events. There exists a number of such models, e.g. regression models based on count data or Cox-based models such as the approaches of Andersen and Gill, Prentice, Williams and Peterson or, Wei, Lin and Weissfeld. Although some of the methods were already compared within the literature there exists no systematic investigation for the special requirements regarding composite endpoints. Within this work a simulation-based comparison of recurrent event models applied to composite endpoints is provided for different realistic clinical trial scenarios. We demonstrate that the Andersen-Gill model and the Prentice- Williams-Petersen models show similar results under various data scenarios whereas the Wei-Lin-Weissfeld model delivers effect estimators which can considerably deviate under commonly met data scenarios. Based on the conducted simulation study, this paper helps to understand the pros and cons of the investigated methods in the context of composite endpoints and provides therefore recommendations for an adequate statistical analysis strategy and a meaningful interpretation of results.

  9. Academic self-concept, learning motivation, and test anxiety of the underestimated student.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urhahne, Detlef; Chao, Sheng-Han; Florineth, Maria Luise; Luttenberger, Silke; Paechter, Manuela

    2011-03-01

    BACKGROUND. Teachers' judgments of student performance on a standardized achievement test often result in an overestimation of students' abilities. In the majority of cases, a larger group of overestimated students and a smaller group of underestimated students are formed by these judgments. AIMS. In this research study, the consequences of the underestimation of students' mathematical performance potential were examined. SAMPLE. Two hundred and thirty-five fourth grade students and their fourteen mathematics teachers took part in the investigation. METHOD. Students worked on a standardized mathematics achievement test and completed a self-description questionnaire about motivation and affect. Teachers estimated each individual student's potential with regard to mathematics test performance as well as students' expectancy for success, level of aspiration, academic self-concept, learning motivation, and test anxiety. The differences between teachers' judgments on students' test performance and students' actual performance were used to build groups of underestimated and overestimated students. RESULTS. Underestimated students displayed equal levels of test performance, learning motivation, and level of aspiration in comparison with overestimated students, but had lower expectancy for success, lower academic self-concept, and experienced more test anxiety. Teachers expected that underestimated students would receive lower grades on the next mathematics test, believed that students were satisfied with lower grades, and assumed that the students have weaker learning motivation than their overestimated classmates. CONCLUSION. Teachers' judgment error was not confined to test performance but generalized to motivational and affective traits of the students. © 2010 The British Psychological Society.

  10. Modeling of novel diagnostic strategies for active tuberculosis - a systematic review: current practices and recommendations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alice Zwerling

    Full Text Available The field of diagnostics for active tuberculosis (TB is rapidly developing. TB diagnostic modeling can help to inform policy makers and support complicated decisions on diagnostic strategy, with important budgetary implications. Demand for TB diagnostic modeling is likely to increase, and an evaluation of current practice is important. We aimed to systematically review all studies employing mathematical modeling to evaluate cost-effectiveness or epidemiological impact of novel diagnostic strategies for active TB.Pubmed, personal libraries and reference lists were searched to identify eligible papers. We extracted data on a wide variety of model structure, parameter choices, sensitivity analyses and study conclusions, which were discussed during a meeting of content experts.From 5619 records a total of 36 papers were included in the analysis. Sixteen papers included population impact/transmission modeling, 5 were health systems models, and 24 included estimates of cost-effectiveness. Transmission and health systems models included specific structure to explore the importance of the diagnostic pathway (n = 4, key determinants of diagnostic delay (n = 5, operational context (n = 5, and the pre-diagnostic infectious period (n = 1. The majority of models implemented sensitivity analysis, although only 18 studies described multi-way sensitivity analysis of more than 2 parameters simultaneously. Among the models used to make cost-effectiveness estimates, most frequent diagnostic assays studied included Xpert MTB/RIF (n = 7, and alternative nucleic acid amplification tests (NAATs (n = 4. Most (n = 16 of the cost-effectiveness models compared new assays to an existing baseline and generated an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER.Although models have addressed a small number of important issues, many decisions regarding implementation of TB diagnostics are being made without the full benefits of insight from mathematical

  11. An evaluation of a model for the systematic documentation of hospital based health promotion activities: results from a multicentre study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tønnesen, Hanne; Christensen, Mette E; Groene, Oliver

    2007-01-01

    The first step of handling health promotion (HP) in Diagnosis Related Groups (DRGs) is a systematic documentation and registration of the activities in the medical records. So far the possibility and tradition for systematic registration of clinical HP activities in the medical records...... and in patient administrative systems have been sparse. Therefore, the activities are mostly invisible in the registers of hospital services as well as in budgets and balances.A simple model has been described to structure the registration of the HP procedures performed by the clinical staff. The model consists...... of two parts; first part includes motivational counselling (7 codes) and the second part comprehends intervention, rehabilitation and after treatment (8 codes).The objective was to evaluate in an international study the usefulness, applicability and sufficiency of a simple model for the systematic...

  12. Simple way to avoid underestimating uncertainties of the evaluated values for sets of consistent data: a proposal for an improvement of the evaluations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chechev, V.P.

    2001-01-01

    To avoid underestimating the uncertainty of the evaluated values for sets of consistent data the following rule is proposed: if the smallest of the input measurement uncertainties (σ min ) is more than the uncertainty obtained from statistical data processing, the σ min should be used as a final uncertainty of the evaluated value. This rule is justified by the fact that almost any measurement is indirect and the total uncertainty of any precise measurement includes mainly the systematic error of the measurement method. Exceptions can be only for measured data obtained by essentially different methods (for example, half life measurements by calorimetry and specific activity determination)

  13. Comparing the reported burn conditions for different severity burns in porcine models: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrews, Christine J; Cuttle, Leila

    2017-12-01

    There are many porcine burn models that create burns using different materials (e.g. metal, water) and different burn conditions (e.g. temperature and duration of exposure). This review aims to determine whether a pooled analysis of these studies can provide insight into the burn materials and conditions required to create burns of a specific severity. A systematic review of 42 porcine burn studies describing the depth of burn injury with histological evaluation is presented. Inclusion criteria included thermal burns, burns created with a novel method or material, histological evaluation within 7 days post-burn and method for depth of injury assessment specified. Conditions causing deep dermal scald burns compared to contact burns of equivalent severity were disparate, with lower temperatures and shorter durations reported for scald burns (83°C for 14 seconds) compared to contact burns (111°C for 23 seconds). A valuable archive of the different mechanisms and materials used for porcine burn models is presented to aid design and optimisation of future models. Significantly, this review demonstrates the effect of the mechanism of injury on burn severity and that caution is recommended when burn conditions established by porcine contact burn models are used by regulators to guide scald burn prevention strategies. © 2017 Medicalhelplines.com Inc and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  14. Extensive and systematic rewiring of histone post-translational modifications in cancer model systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noberini, Roberta; Osti, Daniela; Miccolo, Claudia; Richichi, Cristina; Lupia, Michela; Corleone, Giacomo; Hong, Sung-Pil; Colombo, Piergiuseppe; Pollo, Bianca; Fornasari, Lorenzo; Pruneri, Giancarlo; Magnani, Luca; Cavallaro, Ugo; Chiocca, Susanna; Minucci, Saverio; Pelicci, Giuliana; Bonaldi, Tiziana

    2018-05-04

    Histone post-translational modifications (PTMs) generate a complex combinatorial code that regulates gene expression and nuclear functions, and whose deregulation has been documented in different types of cancers. Therefore, the availability of relevant culture models that can be manipulated and that retain the epigenetic features of the tissue of origin is absolutely crucial for studying the epigenetic mechanisms underlying cancer and testing epigenetic drugs. In this study, we took advantage of quantitative mass spectrometry to comprehensively profile histone PTMs in patient tumor tissues, primary cultures and cell lines from three representative tumor models, breast cancer, glioblastoma and ovarian cancer, revealing an extensive and systematic rewiring of histone marks in cell culture conditions, which includes a decrease of H3K27me2/me3, H3K79me1/me2 and H3K9ac/K14ac, and an increase of H3K36me1/me2. While some changes occur in short-term primary cultures, most of them are instead time-dependent and appear only in long-term cultures. Remarkably, such changes mostly revert in cell line- and primary cell-derived in vivo xenograft models. Taken together, these results support the use of xenografts as the most representative models of in vivo epigenetic processes, suggesting caution when using cultured cells, in particular cell lines and long-term primary cultures, for epigenetic investigations.

  15. Interventions directed at eating habits and physical activity using the Transtheoretical Model: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carvalho de Menezes, Mariana; Bedeschi, Lydiane Bragunci; Santos, Luana Caroline Dos; Lopes, Aline Cristine Souza

    2016-09-20

    The multi-behavioral Transtheoretical Model (TTM) addresses multiple behaviors and it is a promising strategy to control multifactorial morbidities, such as chronic diseases. The results obtained using the TTM are positive, but are not consistently methodical. The aim of this study was to systematically review the effectiveness of the Transtheoretical Model in multi-behavioral interventions for changing eating habits and levels of physical activity. A search on PubMed and SciELO databases was performed with inclusion criteria set for intervention studies before 2016 using the Transtheoretical Model for more than one behavior, including eating habits and/or engaging in physical activity. Eighteen studies were identified; there was a predominance of randomized clinical trials, studies conducted in the United States, and the use of the Internet and/or telephone. The selected studies were aimed at changing eating behaviors; five of the studies did not address physical activity. The main results were reduction of fat consumption, an increase in the consumption of fruit and vegetables, and increases in physical activity, which are progressions in the stages of change and weight loss identified by the Transtheoretical Model. However, the studies showed methodological weaknesses, including high participant loss and the omission of information about randomization and blinding.

  16. Systematic Evaluation of Methods for Integration of Transcriptomic Data into Constraint-Based Models of Metabolism

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Machado, Daniel; Herrgard, Markus

    2014-01-01

    of these methods has not been critically evaluated and compared. This work presents a survey of recently published methods that use transcript levels to try to improve metabolic flux predictions either by generating flux distributions or by creating context-specific models. A subset of these methods...... is then systematically evaluated using published data from three different case studies in E. coli and S. cerevisiae. The flux predictions made by different methods using transcriptomic data are compared against experimentally determined extracellular and intracellular fluxes (from 13C-labeling data). The sensitivity...... of the results to method-specific parameters is also evaluated, as well as their robustness to noise in the data. The results show that none of the methods outperforms the others for all cases. Also, it is observed that for many conditions, the predictions obtained by simple flux balance analysis using growth...

  17. A Systematic Review of the Anxiolytic-Like Effects of Essential Oils in Animal Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Damião Pergentino de Sousa

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available The clinical efficacy of standardized essential oils (such as Lavender officinalis, in treating anxiety disorders strongly suggests that these natural products are an important candidate source for new anxiolytic drugs. A systematic review of essential oils, their bioactive constituents, and anxiolytic-like activity is conducted. The essential oil with the best profile is Lavendula angustifolia, which has already been tested in controlled clinical trials with positive results. Citrus aurantium using different routes of administration also showed significant effects in several animal models, and was corroborated by different research groups. Other promising essential oils are Citrus sinensis and bergamot oil, which showed certain clinical anxiolytic actions; along with Achillea wilhemsii, Alpinia zerumbet, Citrus aurantium, and Spiranthera odoratissima, which, like Lavendula angustifolia, appear to exert anxiolytic-like effects without GABA/benzodiazepine activity, thus differing in their mechanisms of action from the benzodiazepines. The anxiolytic activity of 25 compounds commonly found in essential oils is also discussed.

  18. Effects of waveform model systematics on the interpretation of GW150914

    OpenAIRE

    Abbott, B P; Abbott, R; Abbott, T D; Abernathy, M R; Acernese, F; Ackley, K; Adams, C; Adams, T; Addesso, P; Adhikari, R X; Adya, V B; Affeldt, C; Agathos, M; Agatsuma, K; Aggarwal, N

    2017-01-01

    PAPER\\ud Effects of waveform model systematics on the interpretation of GW150914\\ud B P Abbott1, R Abbott1, T D Abbott2, M R Abernathy3, F Acernese4,5, K Ackley6, C Adams7, T Adams8, P Addesso9,144, R X Adhikari1, V B Adya10, C Affeldt10, M Agathos11, K Agatsuma11, N Aggarwal12, O D Aguiar13, L Aiello14,15, A Ain16, P Ajith17, B Allen10,18,19, A Allocca20,21, P A Altin22, A Ananyeva1, S B Anderson1, W G Anderson18, S Appert1, K Arai1, M C Araya1, J S Areeda23, N Arnaud24, K G Arun25, S Ascenz...

  19. Markov modeling and discrete event simulation in health care: a systematic comparison.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Standfield, Lachlan; Comans, Tracy; Scuffham, Paul

    2014-04-01

    The aim of this study was to assess if the use of Markov modeling (MM) or discrete event simulation (DES) for cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) may alter healthcare resource allocation decisions. A systematic literature search and review of empirical and non-empirical studies comparing MM and DES techniques used in the CEA of healthcare technologies was conducted. Twenty-two pertinent publications were identified. Two publications compared MM and DES models empirically, one presented a conceptual DES and MM, two described a DES consensus guideline, and seventeen drew comparisons between MM and DES through the authors' experience. The primary advantages described for DES over MM were the ability to model queuing for limited resources, capture individual patient histories, accommodate complexity and uncertainty, represent time flexibly, model competing risks, and accommodate multiple events simultaneously. The disadvantages of DES over MM were the potential for model overspecification, increased data requirements, specialized expensive software, and increased model development, validation, and computational time. Where individual patient history is an important driver of future events an individual patient simulation technique like DES may be preferred over MM. Where supply shortages, subsequent queuing, and diversion of patients through other pathways in the healthcare system are likely to be drivers of cost-effectiveness, DES modeling methods may provide decision makers with more accurate information on which to base resource allocation decisions. Where these are not major features of the cost-effectiveness question, MM remains an efficient, easily validated, parsimonious, and accurate method of determining the cost-effectiveness of new healthcare interventions.

  20. Systematic Assessment Through Mathematical Model For Sustainability Reporting In Malaysia Context

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lanang, Wan Nurul Syahirah Wan; Turan, Faiz Mohd; Johan, Kartina

    2017-08-01

    Sustainability assessment have been studied and increasingly recognized as a powerful and valuable tool to measure the performance of sustainability in a company or industry. Nowadays, there are many existing tools that the users can use for sustainable development. There are various initiatives exists on tools for sustainable development, though most of the tools focused on environmental, economy and social aspects. Using the Green Project Management (GPM) P5 concept that suggests the firms not only needs to engage in mainly 3Ps principle: planet, profit, people responsible behaviours, but also, product and process need to be included in the practices, this study will introduce a new mathematical model for assessing the level of sustainability practice in the company. Based on multiple case studies, involving in-depth interviews with senior directors, feedback from experts, and previous engineering report, a systematic approach is done with the aims to obtain the respective data from the feedbacks and to be developed into a new mathematical model. By reviewing on the methodology of this research it comprises of several phases where it starts with the analyzation of the parameters and criteria selection according to the Malaysian context of industry. Moving on to the next step is data analysis involving regression and finally the normalisation process will be done to determine the result of this research either succeeded or not. Lastly, this study is expected to provide a clear guideline to any company or organization to assimilate the sustainability assessment in their development stage. In future, the better understanding towards the sustainability assessment is attained to be aligned unitedly in order to integrated the process approach into the systematic approach for the sustainability assessment.

  1. Disk Masses around Solar-mass Stars are Underestimated by CO Observations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yu, Mo; Evans II, Neal J. [Astronomy Department, University of Texas, 2515 Speedway, Stop C1400, Austin, TX 78712 (United States); Dodson-Robinson, Sarah E. [University of Delaware, Department of Physics and Astronomy, 217 Sharp Lab, Newark, DE 19716 (United States); Willacy, Karen; Turner, Neal J. [Mail Stop 169-506, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, 4800 Oak Grove Drive, Pasadena, CA 91109 (United States)

    2017-05-20

    Gas in protostellar disks provides the raw material for giant planet formation and controls the dynamics of the planetesimal-building dust grains. Accurate gas mass measurements help map the observed properties of planet-forming disks onto the formation environments of known exoplanets. Rare isotopologues of carbon monoxide (CO) have been used as gas mass tracers for disks in the Lupus star-forming region, with an assumed interstellar CO/H{sub 2} abundance ratio. Unfortunately, observations of T-Tauri disks show that CO abundance is not interstellar, a finding reproduced by models that show CO abundance decreasing both with distance from the star and as a function of time. Here, we present radiative transfer simulations that assess the accuracy of CO-based disk mass measurements. We find that the combination of CO chemical depletion in the outer disk and optically thick emission from the inner disk leads observers to underestimate gas mass by more than an order of magnitude if they use the standard assumptions of interstellar CO/H{sub 2} ratio and optically thin emission. Furthermore, CO abundance changes on million-year timescales, introducing an age/mass degeneracy into observations. To reach a factor of a few accuracy for CO-based disk mass measurements, we suggest that observers and modelers adopt the following strategies: (1) select low- J transitions; (2) observe multiple CO isotopologues and use either intensity ratios or normalized line profiles to diagnose CO chemical depletion; and (3) use spatially resolved observations to measure the CO-abundance distribution.

  2. Is dream recall underestimated by retrospective measures and enhanced by keeping a logbook? A review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aspy, Denholm J; Delfabbro, Paul; Proeve, Michael

    2015-05-01

    There are two methods commonly used to measure dream recall in the home setting. The retrospective method involves asking participants to estimate their dream recall in response to a single question and the logbook method involves keeping a daily record of one's dream recall. Until recently, the implicit assumption has been that these measures are largely equivalent. However, this is challenged by the tendency for retrospective measures to yield significantly lower dream recall rates than logbooks. A common explanation for this is that retrospective measures underestimate dream recall. Another is that keeping a logbook enhances it. If retrospective measures underestimate dream recall and if logbooks enhance it they are both unlikely to reflect typical dream recall rates and may be confounded with variables associated with the underestimation and enhancement effects. To date, this issue has received insufficient attention. The present review addresses this gap in the literature. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Misery Has More Company Than People Think: Underestimating the Prevalence of Others’ Negative Emotions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jordan, Alexander H.; Monin, Benoît; Dweck, Carol S.; Lovett, Benjamin J.; John, Oliver P.; Gross, James J.

    2014-01-01

    Four studies document underestimations of the prevalence of others’ negative emotions, and suggest causes and correlates of these erroneous perceptions. In Study 1A, participants reported that their negative emotions were more private or hidden than their positive emotions; in Study 1B, participants underestimated the peer prevalence of common negative, but not positive, experiences described in Study 1A. In Study 2, people underestimated negative emotions and overestimated positive emotions even for well-known peers, and this effect was partially mediated by the degree to which those peers reported suppression of negative (vs. positive) emotions. Study 3 showed that lower estimations of the prevalence of negative emotional experiences predicted greater loneliness and rumination and lower life satisfaction, and that higher estimations for positive emotional experiences predicted lower life satisfaction. Taken together, these studies suggest that people may think they are more alone in their emotional difficulties than they really are. PMID:21177878

  4. Characteristics of Indigenous primary health care service delivery models: a systematic scoping review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harfield, Stephen G; Davy, Carol; McArthur, Alexa; Munn, Zachary; Brown, Alex; Brown, Ngiare

    2018-01-25

    Indigenous populations have poorer health outcomes compared to their non-Indigenous counterparts. The evolution of Indigenous primary health care services arose from mainstream health services being unable to adequately meet the needs of Indigenous communities and Indigenous peoples often being excluded and marginalised from mainstream health services. Part of the solution has been to establish Indigenous specific primary health care services, for and managed by Indigenous peoples. There are a number of reasons why Indigenous primary health care services are more likely than mainstream services to improve the health of Indigenous communities. Their success is partly due to the fact that they often provide comprehensive programs that incorporate treatment and management, prevention and health promotion, as well as addressing the social determinants of health. However, there are gaps in the evidence base including the characteristics that contribute to the success of Indigenous primary health care services in providing comprehensive primary health care. This systematic scoping review aims to identify the characteristics of Indigenous primary health care service delivery models. This systematic scoping review was led by an Aboriginal researcher, using the Joanna Briggs Institute Scoping Review Methodology. All published peer-reviewed and grey literature indexed in PubMed, EBSCO CINAHL, Embase, Informit, Mednar, and Trove databases from September 1978 to May 2015 were reviewed for inclusion. Studies were included if they describe the characteristics of service delivery models implemented within an Indigenous primary health care service. Sixty-two studies met the inclusion criteria. Data were extracted and then thematically analysed to identify the characteristics of Indigenous PHC service delivery models. Culture was the most prominent characteristic underpinning all of the other seven characteristics which were identified - accessible health services, community

  5. Towards systematic evaluation of crop model outputs for global land-use models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leclere, David; Azevedo, Ligia B.; Skalský, Rastislav; Balkovič, Juraj; Havlík, Petr

    2016-04-01

    Land provides vital socioeconomic resources to the society, however at the cost of large environmental degradations. Global integrated models combining high resolution global gridded crop models (GGCMs) and global economic models (GEMs) are increasingly being used to inform sustainable solution for agricultural land-use. However, little effort has yet been done to evaluate and compare the accuracy of GGCM outputs. In addition, GGCM datasets require a large amount of parameters whose values and their variability across space are weakly constrained: increasing the accuracy of such dataset has a very high computing cost. Innovative evaluation methods are required both to ground credibility to the global integrated models, and to allow efficient parameter specification of GGCMs. We propose an evaluation strategy for GGCM datasets in the perspective of use in GEMs, illustrated with preliminary results from a novel dataset (the Hypercube) generated by the EPIC GGCM and used in the GLOBIOM land use GEM to inform on present-day crop yield, water and nutrient input needs for 16 crops x 15 management intensities, at a spatial resolution of 5 arc-minutes. We adopt the following principle: evaluation should provide a transparent diagnosis of model adequacy for its intended use. We briefly describe how the Hypercube data is generated and how it articulates with GLOBIOM in order to transparently identify the performances to be evaluated, as well as the main assumptions and data processing involved. Expected performances include adequately representing the sub-national heterogeneity in crop yield and input needs: i) in space, ii) across crop species, and iii) across management intensities. We will present and discuss measures of these expected performances and weight the relative contribution of crop model, input data and data processing steps in performances. We will also compare obtained yield gaps and main yield-limiting factors against the M3 dataset. Next steps include

  6. Dynamic modeling approaches to characterize the functioning of health systems: A systematic review of the literature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Angela Y; Ogbuoji, Osondu; Atun, Rifat; Verguet, Stéphane

    2017-12-01

    Universal Health Coverage (UHC) is one of the targets for the United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 3. The impetus for UHC has led to an increased demand for time-sensitive tools to enhance our knowledge of how health systems function and to evaluate impact of system interventions. We define the field of "health system modeling" (HSM) as an area of research where dynamic mathematical models can be designed in order to describe, predict, and quantitatively capture the functioning of health systems. HSM can be used to explore the dynamic relationships among different system components, including organizational design, financing and other resources (such as investments in resources and supply chain management systems) - what we call "inputs" - on access, coverage, and quality of care - what we call "outputs", toward improved health system "outcomes", namely increased levels and fairer distributions of population health and financial risk protection. We undertook a systematic review to identify the existing approaches used in HSM. We identified "systems thinking" - a conceptual and qualitative description of the critical interactions within a health system - as an important underlying precursor to HSM, and collated a critical collection of such articles. We then reviewed and categorized articles from two schools of thoughts: "system dynamics" (SD)" and "susceptible-infected-recovered-plus" (SIR+). SD emphasizes the notion of accumulations of stocks in the system, inflows and outflows, and causal feedback structure to predict intended and unintended consequences of policy interventions. The SIR + models link a typical disease transmission model with another that captures certain aspects of the system that impact the outcomes of the main model. These existing methods provide critical insights in informing the design of HSM, and provide a departure point to extend this research agenda. We highlight the opportunity to advance modeling methods to further understand

  7. Calorie Underestimation When Buying High-Calorie Beverages in Fast-Food Contexts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franckle, Rebecca L; Block, Jason P; Roberto, Christina A

    2016-07-01

    We asked 1877 adults and 1178 adolescents visiting 89 fast-food restaurants in New England in 2010 and 2011 to estimate calories purchased. Calorie underestimation was greater among those purchasing a high-calorie beverage than among those who did not (adults: 324 ±698 vs 102 ±591 calories; adolescents: 360 ±602 vs 198 ±509 calories). This difference remained significant for adults but not adolescents after adjusting for total calories purchased. Purchasing high-calorie beverages may uniquely contribute to calorie underestimation among adults.

  8. Systematic vacuum study of the ITER model cryopump by test particle Monte Carlo simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Luo, Xueli; Haas, Horst; Day, Christian [Institute for Technical Physics, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, P.O. Box 3640, 76021 Karlsruhe (Germany)

    2011-07-01

    The primary pumping systems on the ITER torus are based on eight tailor-made cryogenic pumps because not any standard commercial vacuum pump can meet the ITER working criteria. This kind of cryopump can provide high pumping speed, especially for light gases, by the cryosorption on activated charcoal at 4.5 K. In this paper we will present the systematic Monte Carlo simulation results of the model pump in a reduced scale by ProVac3D, a new Test Particle Monte Carlo simulation program developed by KIT. The simulation model has included the most important mechanical structures such as sixteen cryogenic panels working at 4.5 K, the 80 K radiation shield envelope with baffles, the pump housing, inlet valve and the TIMO (Test facility for the ITER Model Pump) test facility. Three typical gas species, i.e., deuterium, protium and helium are simulated. The pumping characteristics have been obtained. The result is in good agreement with the experiment data up to the gas throughput of 1000 sccm, which marks the limit for free molecular flow. This means that ProVac3D is a useful tool in the design of the prototype cryopump of ITER. Meanwhile, the capture factors at different critical positions are calculated. They can be used as the important input parameters for a follow-up Direct Simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) simulation for higher gas throughput.

  9. Scaling up depot medroxyprogesterone acetate (DMPA): a systematic literature review illustrating the AIDED model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curry, Leslie; Taylor, Lauren; Pallas, Sarah Wood; Cherlin, Emily; Pérez-Escamilla, Rafael; Bradley, Elizabeth H

    2013-08-02

    Use of depot medroxyprogesterone acetate (DMPA), often known by the brand name Depo-Provera, has increased globally, particularly in multiple low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). As a reproductive health technology that has scaled up in diverse contexts, DMPA is an exemplar product innovation with which to illustrate the utility of the AIDED model for scaling up family health innovations. We conducted a systematic review of the enabling factors and barriers to scaling up DMPA use in LMICs. We searched 11 electronic databases for academic literature published through January 2013 (n = 284 articles), and grey literature from major health organizations. We applied exclusion criteria to identify relevant articles from peer-reviewed (n = 10) and grey literature (n = 9), extracting data on scale up of DMPA in 13 countries. We then mapped the resulting factors to the five AIDED model components: ASSESS, INNOVATE, DEVELOP, ENGAGE, and DEVOLVE. The final sample of sources included studies representing variation in geographies and methodologies. We identified 15 enabling factors and 10 barriers to dissemination, diffusion, scale up, and/or sustainability of DMPA use. The greatest number of factors were mapped to the ASSESS, DEVELOP, and ENGAGE components. Findings offer early empirical support for the AIDED model, and provide insights into scale up of DMPA that may be relevant for other family planning product innovations.

  10. An integrative model of patient-centeredness - a systematic review and concept analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isabelle Scholl

    Full Text Available Existing models of patient-centeredness reveal a lack of conceptual clarity. This results in a heterogeneous use of the term, unclear measurement dimensions, inconsistent results regarding the effectiveness of patient-centered interventions, and finally in difficulties in implementing patient-centered care. The aim of this systematic review was to identify the different dimensions of patient-centeredness described in the literature and to propose an integrative model of patient-centeredness based on these results.Protocol driven search in five databases, combined with a comprehensive secondary search strategy. All articles that include a definition of patient-centeredness were eligible for inclusion in the review and subject to subsequent content analysis. Two researchers independently first screened titles and abstracts, then assessed full texts for eligibility. In each article the given definition of patient-centeredness was coded independently by two researchers. We discussed codes within the research team and condensed them into an integrative model of patient-centeredness.4707 records were identified through primary and secondary search, of which 706 were retained after screening of titles and abstracts. 417 articles (59% contained a definition of patient-centeredness and were coded. 15 dimensions of patient-centeredness were identified: essential characteristics of clinician, clinician-patient relationship, clinician-patient communication, patient as unique person, biopsychosocial perspective, patient information, patient involvement in care, involvement of family and friends, patient empowerment, physical support, emotional support, integration of medical and non-medical care, teamwork and teambuilding, access to care, coordination and continuity of care. In the resulting integrative model the dimensions were mapped onto different levels of care.The proposed integrative model of patient-centeredness allows different stakeholders to speak

  11. Exploration of the Drosophila buzzatii transposable element content suggests underestimation of repeats in Drosophila genomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rius, Nuria; Guillén, Yolanda; Delprat, Alejandra; Kapusta, Aurélie; Feschotte, Cédric; Ruiz, Alfredo

    2016-05-10

    Many new Drosophila genomes have been sequenced in recent years using new-generation sequencing platforms and assembly methods. Transposable elements (TEs), being repetitive sequences, are often misassembled, especially in the genomes sequenced with short reads. Consequently, the mobile fraction of many of the new genomes has not been analyzed in detail or compared with that of other genomes sequenced with different methods, which could shed light into the understanding of genome and TE evolution. Here we compare the TE content of three genomes: D. buzzatii st-1, j-19, and D. mojavensis. We have sequenced a new D. buzzatii genome (j-19) that complements the D. buzzatii reference genome (st-1) already published, and compared their TE contents with that of D. mojavensis. We found an underestimation of TE sequences in Drosophila genus NGS-genomes when compared to Sanger-genomes. To be able to compare genomes sequenced with different technologies, we developed a coverage-based method and applied it to the D. buzzatii st-1 and j-19 genome. Between 10.85 and 11.16 % of the D. buzzatii st-1 genome is made up of TEs, between 7 and 7,5 % of D. buzzatii j-19 genome, while TEs represent 15.35 % of the D. mojavensis genome. Helitrons are the most abundant order in the three genomes. TEs in D. buzzatii are less abundant than in D. mojavensis, as expected according to the genome size and TE content positive correlation. However, TEs alone do not explain the genome size difference. TEs accumulate in the dot chromosomes and proximal regions of D. buzzatii and D. mojavensis chromosomes. We also report a significantly higher TE density in D. buzzatii and D. mojavensis X chromosomes, which is not expected under the current models. Our easy-to-use correction method allowed us to identify recently active families in D. buzzatii st-1 belonging to the LTR-retrotransposon superfamily Gypsy.

  12. Are the impacts of land use on warming underestimated in climate policy?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahowald, Natalie M.; Ward, Daniel S.; Doney, Scott C.; Hess, Peter G.; Randerson, James T.

    2017-09-01

    While carbon dioxide emissions from energy use must be the primary target of climate change mitigation efforts, land use and land cover change (LULCC) also represent an important source of climate forcing. In this study we compute time series of global surface temperature change separately for LULCC and non-LULCC sources (primarily fossil fuel burning), and show that because of the extra warming associated with the co-emission of methane and nitrous oxide with LULCC carbon dioxide emissions, and a co-emission of cooling aerosols with non-LULCC emissions of carbon dioxide, the linear relationship between cumulative carbon dioxide emissions and temperature has a two-fold higher slope for LULCC than for non-LULCC activities. Moreover, projections used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for the rate of tropical land conversion in the future are relatively low compared to contemporary observations, suggesting that the future projections of land conversion used in the IPCC may underestimate potential impacts of LULCC. By including a ‘business as usual’ future LULCC scenario for tropical deforestation, we find that even if all non-LULCC emissions are switched off in 2015, it is likely that 1.5 °C of warming relative to the preindustrial era will occur by 2100. Thus, policies to reduce LULCC emissions must remain a high priority if we are to achieve the low to medium temperature change targets proposed as a part of the Paris Agreement. Future studies using integrated assessment models and other climate simulations should include more realistic deforestation rates and the integration of policy that would reduce LULCC emissions.

  13. Ecotoxicological potential of the biocides terbutryn, octhilinone and methylisothiazolinone: Underestimated risk from biocidal pathways?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kresmann, Simon; Arokia, Arokia Hansel Rajan; Koch, Christoph; Sures, Bernd

    2018-06-01

    The use of biocides by industry, agriculture and households increased throughout the last two decades. Many new applications with known substances enriched the variety of biocidal pollution sources for the aquatic environment. While agriculture was the major source for a long time, leaching from building facades and preservation of personal care and cleaning products was identified as new sources in the last few years. With the different usage forms of biocidal products the complexity of legislative regulation increased as well. The requirements for risk assessment differ from one law to another and the potential risk of substances under different regulations might be underestimated. Still EC 50 and predicted no-effect concentration (PNEC) values gained from testing with different species are the core of environmental risk assessment, but ecotoxicological data is limited or lacking for many biocides. In this study the biocides widely used in facade coatings and household products terbutryn, octhilinone and methylisothiazolinone were tested with the Daphnia magna acute immobilisation assay, the neutral red uptake assay and the ethoxyresorufin-O-deethylase (EROD) assay, performed with rainbow trout liver (RTL-W1) cells. Further, the MTT assay with the ovarian cell line CHO-9 from Chinese hamster was used as mammalian model. Octhilinone induced the strongest effects with EC 50 values of 156μg/l in the D. magna assay, while terbutryn showed the weakest effects with 8390μg/l and methylisothiazolinone 513μg/l respectively. All other assays showed higher EC 50 values and thus only weak effects. EROD assays did not show any effects. With additional literature and database records PNEC values were calculated: terbutryn reached 0.003μg/l, octhilinone 0.05μg/l and methylisothiazolinone 0.5μg/l. Potential ecotoxicological risks of these biocides are discussed, considering environmental concentrations. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. Effect of health belief model and health promotion model on breast cancer early diagnosis behavior: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ersin, Fatma; Bahar, Zuhal

    2011-01-01

    Breast cancer is an important public health problem on the grounds that it is frequently seen and it is a fatal disease. The objective of this systematic analysis is to indicate the effects of interventions performed by nurses by using the Health Belief Model (HBM) and Health Promotion Model (HPM) on the breast cancer early diagnosis behaviors and on the components of the Health Belief Model and Health Promotion Model. The reveiw was created in line with the Centre for Reviews and Dissemination guide dated 2009 (CRD) and developed by York University National Institute of Health Researches. Review was conducted by using PUBMED, OVID, EBSCO and COCHRANE databases. Six hundred seventy eight studies (PUBMED: 236, OVID: 162, EBSCO: 175, COCHRANE:105) were found in total at the end of the review. Abstracts and full texts of these six hundred seventy eight studies were evaluated in terms of inclusion and exclusion criteria and 9 studies were determined to meet the criteria. Samplings of the studies varied between ninety four and one thousand six hundred fifty five. It was detected in the studies that educations provided by taking the theories as basis became effective on the breast cancer early diagnosis behaviors. When the literature is examined, it is observed that the experimental researches which compare the concepts of Health Belief Model (HBM) and Health Promotion Model (HPM) preoperatively and postoperatively and show the effect of these concepts on education and are conducted by nurses are limited in number. Randomized controlled studies which compare HBM and HPM concepts preoperatively and postoperatively and show the efficiency of the interventions can be useful in evaluating the efficiency of the interventions.

  15. Disassembly for remanufacturing: A systematic literature review, new model development and future research needs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anjar Priyono

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: Disassembly is an important process that distinguishes remanufacturing from conventional manufacturing. It is a unique process that becomes focus of investigation from many scholars. Yet, most scholars investigate disassembly from technical and operational standpoint that lack of strategic perspective. This paper attempts to fill this gap by looking at disassembly from a strategic perspective by considering organisational characteristics, process choices and product attributes. To be more specific, this paper has three objectives. First, to gain understanding what has been done, and what need to be done in the field of disassembly in remanufacturing. Second, to conduct a systematic literature review for identifying the factors affecting disassembly for remanufacturing. Third, to propose a new model of disassembly for remanufacturing and also to provide avenues for future research. Design/methodology/approach: This study used a systematic literature review method. A series of steps were undertaken during the review. The study was started with determining the purpose of the study, selecting appropriate keywords, and reducing the selected papers using a number of criteria. A deeper analysis was carried out on the final paper that meets the criteria for this review. Findings: There are two main findings of this study. First, a list of factors affecting disassembly in remanufacturing is identified. The factors can be categorised into three groups: organisational factors, process choices and product attributes. Second, using factors that have been identified, a new model of disassembly process for remanufacturing is developed. Current studies only consider disassembly as a physical activity to break down products into components. In the new model, disassembly is viewed as a process that converts into into output, which consist of a series of steps. Research limitations/implications: The opportunities for future research include: the need to

  16. Disassembly for remanufacturing: A systematic literature review, new model development and future research needs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Priyono, A.; Ijomah, W.; Bititci, U.

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: Disassembly is an important process that distinguishes remanufacturing from conventional manufacturing. It is a unique process that becomes focus of investigation from many scholars. Yet, most scholars investigate disassembly from technical and operational standpoint that lack of strategic perspective. This paper attempts to fill this gap by looking at disassembly from a strategic perspective by considering organisational characteristics, process choices and product attributes. To be more specific, this paper has three objectives. First, to gain understanding what has been done, and what need to be done in the field of disassembly in remanufacturing. Second, to conduct a systematic literature review for identifying the factors affecting disassembly for remanufacturing. Third, to propose a new model of disassembly for remanufacturing and also to provide avenues for future research. Design/methodology/approach: This study used a systematic literature review method. A series of steps were undertaken during the review. The study was started with determining the purpose of the study, selecting appropriate keywords, and reducing the selected papers using a number of criteria. A deeper analysis was carried out on the final paper that meets the criteria for this review. Findings: There are two main findings of this study. First, a list of factors affecting disassembly in remanufacturing is identified. The factors can be categorised into three groups: organisational factors, process choices and product attributes. Second, using factors that have been identified, a new model of disassembly process for remanufacturing is developed. Current studies only consider disassembly as a physical activity to break down products into components. In the new model, disassembly is viewed as a process that converts into into output, which consist of a series of steps. Research limitations/implications: The opportunities for future research include: the need to develop an index of

  17. Disassembly for remanufacturing: A systematic literature review, new model development and future research needs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Priyono, A.; Ijomah, W.; Bititci, U.

    2016-07-01

    Purpose: Disassembly is an important process that distinguishes remanufacturing from conventional manufacturing. It is a unique process that becomes focus of investigation from many scholars. Yet, most scholars investigate disassembly from technical and operational standpoint that lack of strategic perspective. This paper attempts to fill this gap by looking at disassembly from a strategic perspective by considering organisational characteristics, process choices and product attributes. To be more specific, this paper has three objectives. First, to gain understanding what has been done, and what need to be done in the field of disassembly in remanufacturing. Second, to conduct a systematic literature review for identifying the factors affecting disassembly for remanufacturing. Third, to propose a new model of disassembly for remanufacturing and also to provide avenues for future research. Design/methodology/approach: This study used a systematic literature review method. A series of steps were undertaken during the review. The study was started with determining the purpose of the study, selecting appropriate keywords, and reducing the selected papers using a number of criteria. A deeper analysis was carried out on the final paper that meets the criteria for this review. Findings: There are two main findings of this study. First, a list of factors affecting disassembly in remanufacturing is identified. The factors can be categorised into three groups: organisational factors, process choices and product attributes. Second, using factors that have been identified, a new model of disassembly process for remanufacturing is developed. Current studies only consider disassembly as a physical activity to break down products into components. In the new model, disassembly is viewed as a process that converts into into output, which consist of a series of steps. Research limitations/implications: The opportunities for future research include: the need to develop an index of

  18. Dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry underestimates in vivo lumbar spine bone mineral density in overweight rats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cherif, Rim; Vico, Laurence; Laroche, Norbert; Sakly, Mohsen; Attia, Nebil; Lavet, Cedric

    2018-01-01

    Dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) is currently the most widely used technique for measuring areal bone mineral density (BMD). However, several studies have shown inaccuracy, with either overestimation or underestimation of DXA BMD measurements in the case of overweight or obese individuals. We have designed an overweight rat model based on junk food to compare the effect of obesity on in vivo and ex vivo BMD and bone mineral content measurements. Thirty-eight 6-month old male rats were given a chow diet (n = 13) or a high fat and sucrose diet (n = 25), with the calorie amount being kept the same in the two groups, for 19 weeks. L1 BMD, L1 bone mineral content, amount of abdominal fat, and amount of abdominal lean were obtained from in vivo DXA scan. Ex vivo L1 BMD was also measured. A difference between in vivo and ex vivo DXA BMD measurements (P body weight, perirenal fat, abdominal fat, and abdominal lean. Multiple linear regression analysis shows that body weight, abdominal fat, and abdominal lean were independently related to ex vivo BMD. DXA underestimated lumbar in vivo BMD in overweight rats, and this measurement error is related to body weight and abdominal fat. Therefore, caution must be used when one is interpreting BMD among overweight and obese individuals.

  19. Integration of statistical modeling and high-content microscopy to systematically investigate cell-substrate interactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Wen Li Kelly; Likhitpanichkul, Morakot; Ho, Anthony; Simmons, Craig A

    2010-03-01

    Cell-substrate interactions are multifaceted, involving the integration of various physical and biochemical signals. The interactions among these microenvironmental factors cannot be facilely elucidated and quantified by conventional experimentation, and necessitate multifactorial strategies. Here we describe an approach that integrates statistical design and analysis of experiments with automated microscopy to systematically investigate the combinatorial effects of substrate-derived stimuli (substrate stiffness and matrix protein concentration) on mesenchymal stem cell (MSC) spreading, proliferation and osteogenic differentiation. C3H10T1/2 cells were grown on type I collagen- or fibronectin-coated polyacrylamide hydrogels with tunable mechanical properties. Experimental conditions, which were defined according to central composite design, consisted of specific permutations of substrate stiffness (3-144 kPa) and adhesion protein concentration (7-520 microg/mL). Spreading area, BrdU incorporation and Runx2 nuclear translocation were quantified using high-content microscopy and modeled as mathematical functions of substrate stiffness and protein concentration. The resulting response surfaces revealed distinct patterns of protein-specific, substrate stiffness-dependent modulation of MSC proliferation and differentiation, demonstrating the advantage of statistical modeling in the detection and description of higher-order cellular responses. In a broader context, this approach can be adapted to study other types of cell-material interactions and can facilitate the efficient screening and optimization of substrate properties for applications involving cell-material interfaces. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. External Validity and Model Validity: A Conceptual Approach for Systematic Review Methodology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raheleh Khorsan

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Evidence rankings do not consider equally internal (IV, external (EV, and model validity (MV for clinical studies including complementary and alternative medicine/integrative health care (CAM/IHC research. This paper describe this model and offers an EV assessment tool (EVAT© for weighing studies according to EV and MV in addition to IV. Methods. An abbreviated systematic review methodology was employed to search, assemble, and evaluate the literature that has been published on EV/MV criteria. Standard databases were searched for keywords relating to EV, MV, and bias-scoring from inception to Jan 2013. Tools identified and concepts described were pooled to assemble a robust tool for evaluating these quality criteria. Results. This study assembled a streamlined, objective tool to incorporate for the evaluation of quality of EV/MV research that is more sensitive to CAM/IHC research. Conclusion. Improved reporting on EV can help produce and provide information that will help guide policy makers, public health researchers, and other scientists in their selection, development, and improvement in their research-tested intervention. Overall, clinical studies with high EV have the potential to provide the most useful information about “real-world” consequences of health interventions. It is hoped that this novel tool which considers IV, EV, and MV on equal footing will better guide clinical decision making.

  1. Effects of Photobiomodulation Therapy on Oxidative Stress in Muscle Injury Animal Models: A Systematic Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Solange Almeida dos Santos

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This systematic review was performed to identify the role of photobiomodulation therapy on experimental muscle injury models linked to induce oxidative stress. EMBASE, PubMed, and CINAHL were searched for studies published from January 2006 to January 2016 in the areas of laser and oxidative stress. Any animal model using photobiomodulation therapy to modulate oxidative stress was included in analysis. Eight studies were selected from 68 original articles targeted on laser irradiation and oxidative stress. Articles were critically assessed by two independent raters with a structured tool for rating the research quality. Although the small number of studies limits conclusions, the current literature indicates that photobiomodulation therapy can be an effective short-term approach to reduce oxidative stress markers (e.g., thiobarbituric acid-reactive and to increase antioxidant substances (e.g., catalase, glutathione peroxidase, and superoxide dismutase. However, there is a nonuniformity in the terminology used to describe the parameters and dose for low-level laser treatment.

  2. The JOINT model of nurse absenteeism and turnover: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daouk-Öyry, Lina; Anouze, Abdel-Latef; Otaki, Farah; Dumit, Nuhad Yazbik; Osman, Ibrahim

    2014-01-01

    Absenteeism and turnover among healthcare workers have a significant impact on overall healthcare system performance. The literature captures variables from different levels of measurement and analysis as being associated with attendance behavior among nurses. Yet, it remains unclear how variables from different contextual levels interact to impact nurses' attendance behaviors. The purpose of this review is to develop an integrative multilevel framework that optimizes our understanding of absenteeism and turnover among nurses in hospital settings. We therefore systematically examine English-only studies retrieved from two major databases, PubMed and CINAHL Plus and published between January, 2007 and January, 2013 (inclusive). Our review led to the identification of 7619 articles out of which 41 matched the inclusion criteria. The analysis yielded a total of 91 antecedent variables and 12 outcome variables for turnover, and 29 antecedent variables and 9 outcome variables for absenteeism. The various manifested variables were analyzed using content analysis and grouped into 11 categories, and further into five main factors: Job, Organization, Individual, National and inTerpersonal (JOINT). Thus, we propose the JOINT multilevel conceptual model for investigating absenteeism and turnover among nurses. The JOINT model can be adapted by researchers for fitting their hypothesized multilevel relationships. It can also be used by nursing managers as a lens for holistically managing nurses' attendance behaviors. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Chronic rhinosinusitis in Europe - an underestimated disease. A GA(2) LEN study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hastan, D; Fokkens, W J; Bachert, C

    2011-01-01

    , Zuberbier T, Jarvis D, Burney P. Chronic rhinosinusitis in Europe - an underestimated disease. A GA(2) LEN study. Allergy 2011; 66: 1216-1223. ABSTRACT: Background:  Chronic rhinosinusitis (CRS) is a common health problem, with significant medical costs and impact on general health. Even so, prevalence...

  4. A Systematic Review of Marine-Based Species Distribution Models (SDMs with Recommendations for Best Practice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Néstor M. Robinson

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available In the marine environment Species Distribution Models (SDMs have been used in hundreds of papers for predicting the present and future geographic range and environmental niche of species. We have analyzed ways in which SDMs are being applied to marine species in order to recommend best practice in future studies. This systematic review was registered as a protocol on the Open Science Framework: https://osf.io/tngs6/. The literature reviewed (236 papers was published between 1992 and July 2016. The number of papers significantly increased through time (R2 = 0.92, p < 0.05. The studies were predominantly carried out in the Temperate Northern Atlantic (45% followed by studies of global scale (11% and studies in Temperate Australasia (10%. The majority of studies reviewed focused on theoretical ecology (37% including investigations of biological invasions by non-native organisms, conservation planning (19%, and climate change predictions (17%. Most of the studies were published in ecological, multidisciplinary, or biodiversity conservation journals. Most of the studies (94% failed to report the amount of uncertainty derived from data deficiencies and model parameters. Best practice recommendations are proposed here to ensure that novice and advanced SDM users can (a understand the main elements of SDMs, (b reproduce standard methods and analysis, and (c identify potential limitations with their data. We suggest that in the future, studies of marine SDMs should report on key features of the approaches employed, data deficiencies, the selection of the best explanatory model, and the approach taken to validate the SDM results. In addition, based on the literature reviewed, we suggest that future marine SDMs should account for uncertainty levels as part of the modeling process.

  5. Primary care models for treating opioid use disorders: What actually works? A systematic review.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pooja Lagisetty

    Full Text Available Primary care-based models for Medication-Assisted Treatment (MAT have been shown to reduce mortality for Opioid Use Disorder (OUD and have equivalent efficacy to MAT in specialty substance treatment facilities.The objective of this study is to systematically analyze current evidence-based, primary care OUD MAT interventions and identify program structures and processes associated with improved patient outcomes in order to guide future policy and implementation in primary care settings.PubMed, EMBASE, CINAHL, and PsychInfo.We included randomized controlled or quasi experimental trials and observational studies evaluating OUD treatment in primary care settings treating adult patient populations and assessed structural domains using an established systems engineering framework.We included 35 interventions (10 RCTs and 25 quasi-experimental interventions that all tested MAT, buprenorphine or methadone, in primary care settings across 8 countries. Most included interventions used joint multi-disciplinary (specialty addiction services combined with primary care and coordinated care by physician and non-physician provider delivery models to provide MAT. Despite large variability in reported patient outcomes, processes, and tasks/tools used, similar key design factors arose among successful programs including integrated clinical teams with support staff who were often advanced practice clinicians (nurses and pharmacists as clinical care managers, incorporating patient "agreements," and using home inductions to make treatment more convenient for patients and providers.The findings suggest that multidisciplinary and coordinated care delivery models are an effective strategy to implement OUD treatment and increase MAT access in primary care, but research directly comparing specific structures and processes of care models is still needed.

  6. Scale interactions on diurnal toseasonal timescales and their relevanceto model systematic errors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Yang

    2003-06-01

    Full Text Available Examples of current research into systematic errors in climate models are used to demonstrate the importance of scale interactions on diurnal,intraseasonal and seasonal timescales for the mean and variability of the tropical climate system. It has enabled some conclusions to be drawn about possible processes that may need to be represented, and some recommendations to be made regarding model improvements. It has been shown that the Maritime Continent heat source is a major driver of the global circulation but yet is poorly represented in GCMs. A new climatology of the diurnal cycle has been used to provide compelling evidence of important land-sea breeze and gravity wave effects, which may play a crucial role in the heat and moisture budget of this key region for the tropical and global circulation. The role of the diurnal cycle has also been emphasized for intraseasonal variability associated with the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO. It is suggested that the diurnal cycle in Sea Surface Temperature (SST during the suppressed phase of the MJO leads to a triggering of cumulus congestus clouds, which serve to moisten the free troposphere and hence precondition the atmosphere for the next active phase. It has been further shown that coupling between the ocean and atmosphere on intraseasonal timescales leads to a more realistic simulation of the MJO. These results stress the need for models to be able to simulate firstly, the observed tri-modal distribution of convection, and secondly, the coupling between the ocean and atmosphere on diurnal to intraseasonal timescales. It is argued, however, that the current representation of the ocean mixed layer in coupled models is not adequate to represent the complex structure of the observed mixed layer, in particular the formation of salinity barrier layers which can potentially provide much stronger local coupling between the atmosphere and ocean on diurnal to intraseasonal timescales.

  7. Tissue Engineering in Animal Models for Urinary Diversion: A Systematic Review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sloff, Marije; de Vries, Rob; Geutjes, Paul; IntHout, Joanna; Ritskes-Hoitinga, Merel

    2014-01-01

    Tissue engineering and regenerative medicine (TERM) approaches may provide alternatives for gastrointestinal tissue in urinary diversion. To continue to clinically translatable studies, TERM alternatives need to be evaluated in (large) controlled and standardized animal studies. Here, we investigated all evidence for the efficacy of tissue engineered constructs in animal models for urinary diversion. Studies investigating this subject were identified through a systematic search of three different databases (PubMed, Embase and Web of Science). From each study, animal characteristics, study characteristics and experimental outcomes for meta-analyses were tabulated. Furthermore, the reporting of items vital for study replication was assessed. The retrieved studies (8 in total) showed extreme heterogeneity in study design, including animal models, biomaterials and type of urinary diversion. All studies were feasibility studies, indicating the novelty of this field. None of the studies included appropriate control groups, i.e. a comparison with the classical treatment using GI tissue. The meta-analysis showed a trend towards successful experimentation in larger animals although no specific animal species could be identified as the most suitable model. Larger animals appear to allow a better translation to the human situation, with respect to anatomy and surgical approaches. It was unclear whether the use of cells benefits the formation of a neo urinary conduit. The reporting of the methodology and data according to standardized guidelines was insufficient and should be improved to increase the value of such publications. In conclusion, animal models in the field of TERM for urinary diversion have probably been chosen for reasons other than their predictive value. Controlled and comparative long term animal studies, with adequate methodological reporting are needed to proceed to clinical translatable studies. This will aid in good quality research with the reduction in

  8. Parameters for the mathematical modelling of Clostridium difficile acquisition and transmission: a systematic review.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eroboghene H Otete

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: Mathematical modelling of Clostridium difficile infection dynamics could contribute to the optimisation of strategies for its prevention and control. The objective of this systematic review was to summarise the available literature specifically identifying the quantitative parameters required for a compartmental mathematical model of Clostridium difficile transmission. METHODS: Six electronic healthcare databases were searched and all screening, data extraction and study quality assessments were undertaken in duplicate. Results were synthesised using a narrative approach. RESULTS: Fifty-four studies met the inclusion criteria. Reproduction numbers for hospital based epidemics were described in two studies with a range from 0.55 to 7. Two studies provided consistent data on incubation periods. For 62% of cases, symptoms occurred in less than 4 weeks (3-28 days after infection. Evidence on contact patterns was identified in four studies but with limited data reported for populating a mathematical model. Two studies, including one without clinically apparent donor-recipient pairs, provided information on serial intervals for household or ward contacts, showing transmission intervals of <1 week in ward based contacts compared to up to 2 months for household contacts. Eight studies reported recovery rates of between 75%-100% for patients who had been treated with either metronidazole or vancomycin. Forty-nine studies gave recurrence rates of between 3% and 49% but were limited by varying definitions of recurrence. No study was found which specifically reported force of infection or net reproduction numbers. CONCLUSIONS: There is currently scant literature overtly citing estimates of the parameters required to inform the quantitative modelling of Clostridium difficile transmission. Further high quality studies to investigate transmission parameters are required, including through review of published epidemiological studies where these

  9. Random variables in forest policy: A systematic sensitivity analysis using CGE models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alavalapati, J.R.R.

    1999-01-01

    Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models are extensively used to simulate economic impacts of forest policies. Parameter values used in these models often play a central role in their outcome. Since econometric studies and best guesses are the main sources of these parameters, some randomness exists about the 'true' values of these parameters. Failure to incorporate this randomness into these models may limit the degree of confidence in the validity of the results. In this study, we conduct a systematic sensitivity analysis (SSA) to assess the economic impacts of: 1) a 1 % increase in tax on Canadian lumber and wood products exports to the United States (US), and 2) a 1% decrease in technical change in the lumber and wood products and pulp and paper sectors of the US and Canada. We achieve this task by using an aggregated version of global trade model developed by Hertel (1997) and the automated SSA procedure developed by Arndt and Pearson (1996). The estimated means and standard deviations suggest that certain impacts are more likely than others. For example, an increase in export tax is likely to cause a decrease in Canadian income, while an increase in US income is unlikely. On the other hand, a decrease in US welfare is likely, while an increase in Canadian welfare is unlikely, in response to an increase in tax. It is likely that income and welfare both fall in Canada and the US in response to a decrease in the technical change in lumber and wood products and pulp and paper sectors 21 refs, 1 fig, 5 tabs

  10. Factors associated with adoption of health information technology: a conceptual model based on a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kruse, Clemens Scott; DeShazo, Jonathan; Kim, Forest; Fulton, Lawrence

    2014-05-23

    The Health Information Technology for Economic and Clinical Health Act (HITECH) allocated $19.2 billion to incentivize adoption of the electronic health record (EHR). Since 2009, Meaningful Use Criteria have dominated information technology (IT) strategy. Health care organizations have struggled to meet expectations and avoid penalties to reimbursements from the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS). Organizational theories attempt to explain factors that influence organizational change, and many theories address changes in organizational strategy. However, due to the complexities of the health care industry, existing organizational theories fall short of demonstrating association with significant health care IT implementations. There is no organizational theory for health care that identifies, groups, and analyzes both internal and external factors of influence for large health care IT implementations like adoption of the EHR. The purpose of this systematic review is to identify a full-spectrum of both internal organizational and external environmental factors associated with the adoption of health information technology (HIT), specifically the EHR. The result is a conceptual model that is commensurate with the complexity of with the health care sector. We performed a systematic literature search in PubMed (restricted to English), EBSCO Host, and Google Scholar for both empirical studies and theory-based writing from 1993-2013 that demonstrated association between influential factors and three modes of HIT: EHR, electronic medical record (EMR), and computerized provider order entry (CPOE). We also looked at published books on organizational theories. We made notes and noted trends on adoption factors. These factors were grouped as adoption factors associated with various versions of EHR adoption. The resulting conceptual model summarizes the diversity of independent variables (IVs) and dependent variables (DVs) used in articles, editorials, books, as

  11. [Identification of cutoff points for Homeostatic Model Assessment for Insulin Resistance index in adolescents: systematic review].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrade, Maria Izabel Siqueira de; Oliveira, Juliana Souza; Leal, Vanessa Sá; Lima, Niedja Maria da Silva; Costa, Emília Chagas; Aquino, Nathalia Barbosa de; Lira, Pedro Israel Cabral de

    2016-06-01

    To identify cutoff points of the Homeostatic Model Assessment for Insulin Resistance (HOMA-IR) index established for adolescents and discuss their applicability for the diagnosis of insulin resistance in Brazilian adolescents. A systematic review was performed in the PubMed, Lilacs and SciELO databases, using the following descriptors: "Adolescents", "insulin resistance" and "ROC curve". Original articles carried out with adolescents published between 2005 and 2015 in Portuguese, English or Spanish languages, which included the statistical analysis using ROC curve to determine the index cutoff (HOMA-IR) were included. A total of 184 articles were identified and after the study phases were applied, seven articles were selected for the review. All selected studies established their cutoffs using a ROC curve, with the lowest observed cutoff of 1.65 for girls and 1.95 for boys and the highest of 3.82 for girls and 5.22 for boys. Of the studies analyzed, one proposed external validity, recommending the use of the HOMA-IR cutoff >2.5 for both genders. The HOMA-IR index constitutes a reliable method for the detection of insulin resistance in adolescents, as long as it uses cutoffs that are more adequate for the reality of the study population, allowing early diagnosis of insulin resistance and enabling multidisciplinary interventions aiming at health promotion of this population. Copyright © 2015 Sociedade de Pediatria de São Paulo. Publicado por Elsevier Editora Ltda. All rights reserved.

  12. Genetics of borderline personality disorder: systematic review and proposal of an integrative model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amad, Ali; Ramoz, Nicolas; Thomas, Pierre; Jardri, Renaud; Gorwood, Philip

    2014-03-01

    Borderline personality disorder (BPD) is one of the most common mental disorders and is characterized by a pervasive pattern of emotional lability, impulsivity, interpersonal difficulties, identity disturbances, and disturbed cognition. Here, we performed a systematic review of the literature concerning the genetics of BPD, including familial and twin studies, association studies, and gene-environment interaction studies. Moreover, meta-analyses were performed when at least two case-control studies testing the same polymorphism were available. For each gene variant, a pooled odds ratio (OR) was calculated using fixed or random effects models. Familial and twin studies largely support the potential role of a genetic vulnerability at the root of BPD, with an estimated heritability of approximately 40%. Moreover, there is evidence for both gene-environment interactions and correlations. However, association studies for BPD are sparse, making it difficult to draw clear conclusions. According to our meta-analysis, no significant associations were found for the serotonin transporter gene, the tryptophan hydroxylase 1 gene, or the serotonin 1B receptor gene. We hypothesize that such a discrepancy (negative association studies but high heritability of the disorder) could be understandable through a paradigm shift, in which "plasticity" genes (rather than "vulnerability" genes) would be involved. Such a framework postulates a balance between positive and negative events, which interact with plasticity genes in the genesis of BPD. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Systematic model calculations of the hyperfine structure in light and heavy ions

    CERN Document Server

    Tomaselli, M; Nörtershäuser, W; Ewald, G; Sánchez, R; Fritzsche, S; Karshenboim, S G

    2003-01-01

    Systematic model calculations are performed for the magnetization distributions and the hyperfine structure (HFS) of light and heavy ions with a mass close to A ~ 6 208 235 to test the interplay of nuclear and atomic structure. A high-precision measurement of lithium-isotope shifts (IS) for suitable transition, combined with an accurate theoretical evaluation of the mass-shift contribution in the respective transition, can be used to determine the root-mean-square (rms) nuclear-charge radius of Li isotopes, particularly of the halo nucleus /sup 11/Li. An experiment of this type is currently underway at GSI in Darmstadt and ISOLDE at CERN. However, the field-shift contributions between the different isotopes can be evaluated using the results obtained for the charge radii, thus casting, with knowledge of the ratio of the HFS constants to the magnetic moments, new light on the IS theory. For heavy charged ions the calculated n- body magnetization distributions reproduce the HFS of hydrogen-like ions well if QED...

  14. The psychoneuroimmunological effects of music: a systematic review and a new model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fancourt, Daisy; Ockelford, Adam; Belai, Abi

    2014-02-01

    There has been a growing interest over the past decade into the health benefits of music, in particular examining its psychological and neurological effects. Yet this is the first attempt to systematically review publications on the psychoneuroimmunology of music. Of the selected sixty-three studies published over the past 22 years, a range of effects of music on neurotransmitters, hormones, cytokines, lymphocytes, vital signs and immunoglobulins as well as psychological assessments are cataloged. Research so far points to the pivotal role of stress pathways in linking music to an immune response. However, several challenges to this research are noted: (1) there is very little discussion on the possible mechanisms by which music is achieving its neurological and immunological impact; (2) the studies tend to examine biomarkers in isolation, without taking into consideration the interaction of the biomarkers in question with other physiological or metabolic activities of the body, leading to an unclear understanding of the impact that music may be having; (3) terms are not being defined clearly enough, such as distinctions not being made between different kinds of stress and 'music' being used to encompass a broad spectrum of activities without determining which aspects of musical engagement are responsible for alterations in biomarkers. In light of this, a new model is presented which provides a framework for developing a taxonomy of musical and stress-related variables in research design, and tracing the broad pathways that are involved in its influence on the body. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Underestimation of Microearthquake Size by the Magnitude Scale of the Japan Meteorological Agency: Influence on Earthquake Statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uchide, Takahiko; Imanishi, Kazutoshi

    2018-01-01

    Magnitude scales based on the amplitude of seismic waves, including the Japan Meteorological Agency magnitude scale (Mj), are commonly used in routine processes. The moment magnitude scale (Mw), however, is more physics based and is able to evaluate any type and size of earthquake. This paper addresses the relation between Mj and Mw for microearthquakes. The relative moment magnitudes among earthquakes are well constrained by multiple spectral ratio analyses. The results for the events in the Fukushima Hamadori and northern Ibaraki prefecture areas of Japan imply that Mj is significantly and systematically smaller than Mw for microearthquakes. The Mj-Mw curve has slopes of 1/2 and 1 for small and large values of Mj, respectively; for example, Mj = 1.0 corresponds to Mw = 2.0. A simple numerical simulation implies that this is due to anelastic attenuation and the recording using a finite sampling interval. The underestimation affects earthquake statistics. The completeness magnitude, Mc, for magnitudes lower than which the magnitude-frequency distribution deviates from the Gutenberg-Richter law, is effectively lower for Mw than that for Mj, by taking into account the systematic difference between Mj and Mw. The b values of the Gutenberg-Richter law are larger for Mw than for Mj. As the b values for Mj and Mw are well correlated, qualitative argument using b values is not affected. While the estimated b values for Mj are below 1.5, those for Mw often exceed 1.5. This may affect the physical implication of the seismicity.

  16. A systematic intercomparison of regional flood frequency analysis models in a simulation framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ganora, Daniele; Laio, Francesco; Claps, Pierluigi

    2015-04-01

    Regional frequency analysis (RFA) is a well-established methodology to provide an estimate of the flood frequency curve (or other discharge-related variables), based on the fundamental concept of substituting temporal information at a site (no data or short time series) by exploiting observations at other sites (spatial information). Different RFA paradigms exist, depending on the way the information is transferred to the site of interest. Despite the wide use of such methodology, a systematic comparison between these paradigms has not been performed. The aim of this study is to provide a framework wherein carrying out the intercomparison: we thus synthetically generate data through Monte Carlo simulations for a number of (virtual) stations, following a GEV parent distribution; different scenarios can be created to represent different spatial heterogeneity patterns by manipulating the parameters of the parent distribution at each station (e.g. with a linear variation in space of the shape parameter of the GEV). A special case is the homogeneous scenario where each station record is sampled from the same parent distribution. For each scenario and each simulation, different regional models are applied to evaluate the 200-year growth factor at each station. Results are than compared to the exact growth factor of each station, which is known in our virtual world. Considered regional approaches include: (i) a single growth curve for the whole region; (ii) a multiple-region model based on cluster analysis which search for an adequate number of homogeneous subregions; (iii) a Region-of-Influence model which defines a homogeneous subregion for each site; (iv) a spatially-smooth estimation procedure based on linear regressions.. A further benchmark model is the at-site estimate based on the analysis of the local record. A comprehensive analysis of the results of the simulations shows that, if the scenario is homogeneous (no spatial variability), all the regional approaches

  17. Molecular structure based property modeling: Development/ improvement of property models through a systematic property-data-model analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hukkerikar, Amol Shivajirao; Sarup, Bent; Sin, Gürkan

    2013-01-01

    models. To make the property-data-model analysis fast and efficient, an approach based on the “molecular structure similarity criteria” to identify molecules (mono-functional, bi-functional, etc.) containing specified set of structural parameters (that is, groups) is employed. The method has been applied...

  18. Inferring Perspective Versus Getting Perspective: Underestimating the Value of Being in Another Person's Shoes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Haotian; Majka, Elizabeth A; Epley, Nicholas

    2017-04-01

    People use at least two strategies to solve the challenge of understanding another person's mind: inferring that person's perspective by reading his or her behavior (theorization) and getting that person's perspective by experiencing his or her situation (simulation). The five experiments reported here demonstrate a strong tendency for people to underestimate the value of simulation. Predictors estimated a stranger's emotional reactions toward 50 pictures. They could either infer the stranger's perspective by reading his or her facial expressions or simulate the stranger's perspective by watching the pictures he or she viewed. Predictors were substantially more accurate when they got perspective through simulation, but overestimated the accuracy they had achieved by inferring perspective. Predictors' miscalibrated confidence stemmed from overestimating the information revealed through facial expressions and underestimating the similarity in people's reactions to a given situation. People seem to underappreciate a useful strategy for understanding the minds of others, even after they gain firsthand experience with both strategies.

  19. Quantification of Underestimation of Physical Activity During Cycling to School When Using Accelerometry

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tarp, Jakob; Andersen, Lars B; Østergaard, Lars

    2015-01-01

    Background: Cycling to and from school is an important source of physical activity (PA) in youth but it is not captured by the dominant objective method to quantify PA. The aim of this study was to quantify the underestimation of objectively assessed PA caused by cycling when using accelerometry....... Methods: Participants were 20 children aged 11-14 years from a randomized controlled trial performed in 2011. Physical activity was assessed by accelerometry with the addition of heart rate monitoring during cycling to school. Global positioning system (GPS) was used to identify periods of cycling...... to school. Results: Mean (95% CI) minutes of moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) during round-trip commutes was 10.8 (7.1 - 16.6). Each kilometre of cycling meant an underestimation of 9314 (95%CI: 7719 - 11238) counts and 2.7 (95%CI: 2.1 - 3.5) minutes of MVPA. Adjusting for cycling to school...

  20. Decision-model estimation of the age-specific disability weight for schistosomiasis japonica: a systematic review of the literature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finkelstein, Julia L; Schleinitz, Mark D; Carabin, Hélène; McGarvey, Stephen T

    2008-03-05

    Schistosomiasis is among the most prevalent parasitic infections worldwide. However, current Global Burden of Disease (GBD) disability-adjusted life year estimates indicate that its population-level impact is negligible. Recent studies suggest that GBD methodologies may significantly underestimate the burden of parasitic diseases, including schistosomiasis. Furthermore, strain-specific disability weights have not been established for schistosomiasis, and the magnitude of human disease burden due to Schistosoma japonicum remains controversial. We used a decision model to quantify an alternative disability weight estimate of the burden of human disease due to S. japonicum. We reviewed S. japonicum morbidity data, and constructed decision trees for all infected persons and two age-specific strata, or =15 y. We conducted stochastic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses for each model. Infection with S. japonicum was associated with an average disability weight of 0.132, with age-specific disability weights of 0.098 ( or =15 y). Re-estimated disability weights were seven to 46 times greater than current GBD measures; no simulations produced disability weight estimates lower than 0.009. Nutritional morbidities had the greatest contribution to the S. japonicum disability weight in the disability weights for schistosomiasis urgently need to be revised, and species-specific disability weights should be established. Even a marginal increase in current estimates would result in a substantial rise in the estimated global burden of schistosomiasis, and have considerable implications for public health prioritization and resource allocation for schistosomiasis research, monitoring, and control.

  1. A Hamiltonian viewpoint in the modeling of switching power converters : A systematic modeling procedure of a large class of switching power converters using the Hamiltonian approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Escobar, Gerardo; Schaft, Arjan J. van der; Ortega, Romeo

    1999-01-01

    In this paper we show how, using the Hamiltonian formalism, we can systematically derive mathematical models that describe the behaviour of a large class of switching power converters, including the "Boost", "Buck", "Buck-Boost", "Čuk" and "Flyback" converters. We follow the approach earlier

  2. Underestimated Rate of Status Epilepticus according to the Traditional Definition of Status Epilepticus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ong, Cheung-Ter; Wong, Yi-Sin; Sung, Sheng-Feng; Wu, Chi-Shun; Hsu, Yung-Chu; Su, Yu-Hsiang; Hung, Ling-Chien

    2015-01-01

    Status epilepticus (SE) is an important neurological emergency. Early diagnosis could improve outcomes. Traditionally, SE is defined as seizures lasting at least 30 min or repeated seizures over 30 min without recovery of consciousness. Some specialists argued that the duration of seizures qualifying as SE should be shorter and the operational definition of SE was suggested. It is unclear whether physicians follow the operational definition. The objective of this study was to investigate whether the incidence of SE was underestimated and to investigate the underestimate rate. This retrospective study evaluates the difference in diagnosis of SE between operational definition and traditional definition of status epilepticus. Between July 1, 2012, and June 30, 2014, patients discharged with ICD-9 codes for epilepsy (345.X) in Chia-Yi Christian Hospital were included in the study. A seizure lasting at least 30 min or repeated seizures over 30 min without recovery of consciousness were considered SE according to the traditional definition of SE (TDSE). A seizure lasting between 5 and 30 min was considered SE according to the operational definition of SE (ODSE); it was defined as underestimated status epilepticus (UESE). During a 2-year period, there were 256 episodes of seizures requiring hospital admission. Among the 256 episodes, 99 episodes lasted longer than 5 min, out of which 61 (61.6%) episodes persisted over 30 min (TDSE) and 38 (38.4%) episodes continued between 5 and 30 min (UESE). In the 38 episodes of seizure lasting 5 to 30 minutes, only one episode was previously discharged as SE (ICD-9-CM 345.3). Conclusion. We underestimated 37.4% of SE. Continuing education regarding the diagnosis and treatment of epilepsy is important for physicians.

  3. Causes of systematic over- or underestimation of low streamflows by use of index-streamgage approaches in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eng, K.; Kiang, J.E.; Chen, Y.-Y.; Carlisle, D.M.; Granato, G.E.

    2011-01-01

    Low-flow characteristics can be estimated by multiple linear regressions or the index-streamgage approach. The latter transfers streamflow information from a hydrologically similar, continuously gaged basin ('index streamgage') to one with a very limited streamflow record, but often results in biased estimates. The application of the index-streamgage approach can be generalized into three steps: (1) selection of streamflow information of interest, (2) definition of hydrologic similarity and selection of index streamgage, and (3) application of an information-transfer approach. Here, we explore the effects of (1) the range of streamflow values, (2) the areal density of streamgages, and (3) index-streamgage selection criteria on the bias of three information-transfer approaches on estimates of the 7-day, 10-year minimum streamflow (Q7, 10). The three information-transfer approaches considered are maintenance of variance extension, base-flow correlation, and ratio of measured to concurrent gaged streamflow (Q-ratio invariance). Our results for 1120 streamgages throughout the United States suggest that only a small portion of the total bias in estimated streamflow values is explained by the areal density of the streamgages and the hydrologic similarity between the two basins. However, restricting the range of streamflow values used in the index-streamgage approach reduces the bias of estimated Q7, 10 values substantially. Importantly, estimated Q7, 10 values are heavily biased when the observed Q7, 10 values are near zero. Results of the analysis also showed that Q7, 10 estimates from two of the three index-streamgage approaches have lower root-mean-square error values than estimates derived from multiple regressions for the large regions considered in this study.

  4. Is dream recall underestimated by retrospective measures and enhanced by keeping a logbook? An empirical investigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aspy, Denholm J

    2016-05-01

    In a recent review, Aspy, Delfabbro, and Proeve (2015) highlighted the tendency for retrospective measures of dream recall to yield substantially lower recall rates than logbook measures, a phenomenon they termed the retrospective-logbook disparity. One explanation for this phenomenon is that retrospective measures underestimate true dream recall. Another explanation is that keeping a logbook tends to enhance dream recall. The present study provides a thorough empirical investigation into the retrospective-logbook disparity using a range of retrospective and logbook measures and three different types of logbook. Retrospective-logbook disparities were correlated with a range of variables theoretically related to the retrospective underestimation effect, and retrospective-logbook disparities were greater among participants that reported improved dream recall during the logbook period. These findings indicate that dream recall is underestimated by retrospective measures and enhanced by keeping a logbook. Recommendations for the use of retrospective and logbook measures of dream recall are provided. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. A systematic methodology to extend the applicability of a bioconversion model for the simulation of various co-digestion scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kovalovszki, Adam; Alvarado-Morales, Merlin; Fotidis, Ioannis

    2017-01-01

    Detailed simulation of anaerobic digestion (AD) requires complex mathematical models and the optimization of numerous model parameters. By performing a systematic methodology and identifying parameters with the highest impact on process variables in a well-established AD model, its applicability...... was extended to various co-digestion scenarios. More specifically, the application of the step-by-step methodology led to the estimation of a general and reduced set of parameters, for the simulation of scenarios where either manure or wastewater were co-digested with different organic substrates. Validation...... experimental data quite well, indicating that it offers a reliable reference point for future simulations of anaerobic co-digestion scenarios....

  6. Neural systems language: a formal modeling language for the systematic description, unambiguous communication, and automated digital curation of neural connectivity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Ramsay A; Swanson, Larry W

    2013-09-01

    Systematic description and the unambiguous communication of findings and models remain among the unresolved fundamental challenges in systems neuroscience. No common descriptive frameworks exist to describe systematically the connective architecture of the nervous system, even at the grossest level of observation. Furthermore, the accelerating volume of novel data generated on neural connectivity outpaces the rate at which this data is curated into neuroinformatics databases to synthesize digitally systems-level insights from disjointed reports and observations. To help address these challenges, we propose the Neural Systems Language (NSyL). NSyL is a modeling language to be used by investigators to encode and communicate systematically reports of neural connectivity from neuroanatomy and brain imaging. NSyL engenders systematic description and communication of connectivity irrespective of the animal taxon described, experimental or observational technique implemented, or nomenclature referenced. As a language, NSyL is internally consistent, concise, and comprehensible to both humans and computers. NSyL is a promising development for systematizing the representation of neural architecture, effectively managing the increasing volume of data on neural connectivity and streamlining systems neuroscience research. Here we present similar precedent systems, how NSyL extends existing frameworks, and the reasoning behind NSyL's development. We explore NSyL's potential for balancing robustness and consistency in representation by encoding previously reported assertions of connectivity from the literature as examples. Finally, we propose and discuss the implications of a framework for how NSyL will be digitally implemented in the future to streamline curation of experimental results and bridge the gaps among anatomists, imagers, and neuroinformatics databases. Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  7. Cigarette smoking and depression comorbidity: systematic review and proposed theoretical model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mathew, Amanda R; Hogarth, Lee; Leventhal, Adam M; Cook, Jessica W; Hitsman, Brian

    2017-03-01

    Despite decades of research on co-occurring smoking and depression, cessation rates remain consistently lower for depressed smokers than for smokers in the general population, highlighting the need for theory-driven models of smoking and depression. This paper provides a systematic review with a particular focus upon psychological states that disproportionately motivate smoking in depression, and frame an incentive learning theory account of smoking-depression co-occurrence. We searched PubMed, Scopus, PsychINFO and CINAHL to December 2014, which yielded 852 papers. Using pre-established eligibility criteria, we identified papers focused on clinical issues and motivational mechanisms underlying smoking in established, adult smokers (i.e. maintenance, quit attempts and cessation/relapse) with elevated symptoms of depression. Two reviewers determined independently whether papers met review criteria. We included 297 papers in qualitative synthesis. Our review identified three primary mechanisms that underlie persistent smoking among depressed smokers: low positive affect, high negative affect and cognitive impairment. We propose a novel application of incentive learning theory which posits that depressed smokers experience greater increases in the expected value of smoking in the face of these three motivational states, which promotes goal-directed choice of smoking behavior over alternative actions. The incentive learning theory accounts for current evidence on how depression primes smoking behavior and provides a unique framework for conceptualizing psychological mechanisms of smoking maintenance among depressed smokers. Treatment should focus upon correcting adverse internal states and beliefs about the high value of smoking in those states to improve cessation outcomes for depressed smokers. © 2016 Society for the Study of Addiction.

  8. Sensitivity of the Oxford Foot Model to marker misplacement: A systematic single-case investigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carty, Christopher P; Walsh, Henry P J; Gillett, Jarred G

    2015-09-01

    The purpose of this paper was to systematically assess the effect of Oxford Foot Model (OFM) marker misplacement on hindfoot relative to tibia, and forefoot relative to hindfoot kinematic calculations during the stance phase of gait. Marker trajectories were recorded with an 8-camera motion analysis system (Vicon Motion Systems Ltd., UK) and ground reaction forces were recorded from three force platforms (AMTI, USA). A custom built marker cluster consisting of 4 markers in a square arrangement (diagonal distance 2 cm) was used to assess the effect of marker misplacement in the superior, inferior, anterior and posterior direction for the sustentaculum tali (STL), the proximal 1st metatarsal (P1M), distal 5th metatarsal (D5M), proximal 5th metatarsal (P5M) and lateral calcaneus (LCA) markers. In addition manual movement of the heel complex 1 cm superiorly, inferiorly, medially and laterally, and also an alignment error of 10° inversion and 10° eversion was assessed. Clinically meaningful effects of marker misplacement were determined using a threshold indicating the minimal clinically important difference. Misplacement of the heel-wand complex had the most pronounced effect on mean kinematic profiles during the stance phase across all degrees-of-freedom with respect to hindfoot-tibia and forefoot-hindfoot angles. Vertical marker misplacement of the D5M and P5M markers affected the sagittal plane, and to a lesser extent frontal plane, forefoot-hindfoot kinematics. In conclusion, the OFM is highly sensitive to misplacement of the heel-wand complex in all directions and the P5M marker in the vertical direction. Crown Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Dual-use tools and systematics-aware analysis workflows in the ATLAS Run-II analysis model

    CERN Document Server

    FARRELL, Steven; The ATLAS collaboration

    2015-01-01

    The ATLAS analysis model has been overhauled for the upcoming run of data collection in 2015 at 13 TeV. One key component of this upgrade was the Event Data Model (EDM), which now allows for greater flexibility in the choice of analysis software framework and provides powerful new features that can be exploited by analysis software tools. A second key component of the upgrade is the introduction of a dual-use tool technology, which provides abstract interfaces for analysis software tools to run in either the Athena framework or a ROOT-based framework. The tool interfaces, including a new interface for handling systematic uncertainties, have been standardized for the development of improved analysis workflows and consolidation of high-level analysis tools. This presentation will cover the details of the dual-use tool functionality, the systematics interface, and how these features fit into a centrally supported analysis environment.

  10. Dual-use tools and systematics-aware analysis workflows in the ATLAS Run-2 analysis model

    CERN Document Server

    FARRELL, Steven; The ATLAS collaboration; Calafiura, Paolo; Delsart, Pierre-Antoine; Elsing, Markus; Koeneke, Karsten; Krasznahorkay, Attila; Krumnack, Nils; Lancon, Eric; Lavrijsen, Wim; Laycock, Paul; Lei, Xiaowen; Strandberg, Sara Kristina; Verkerke, Wouter; Vivarelli, Iacopo; Woudstra, Martin

    2015-01-01

    The ATLAS analysis model has been overhauled for the upcoming run of data collection in 2015 at 13 TeV. One key component of this upgrade was the Event Data Model (EDM), which now allows for greater flexibility in the choice of analysis software framework and provides powerful new features that can be exploited by analysis software tools. A second key component of the upgrade is the introduction of a dual-use tool technology, which provides abstract interfaces for analysis software tools to run in either the Athena framework or a ROOT-based framework. The tool interfaces, including a new interface for handling systematic uncertainties, have been standardized for the development of improved analysis workflows and consolidation of high-level analysis tools. This paper will cover the details of the dual-use tool functionality, the systematics interface, and how these features fit into a centrally supported analysis environment.

  11. Sap flow is Underestimated by Thermal Dissipation Sensors due to Alterations of Wood Anatomy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marañón-Jiménez, S.; Wiedemann, A.; van den Bulcke, J.; Cuntz, M.; Rebmann, C.; Steppe, K.

    2014-12-01

    The thermal dissipation technique (TD) is one of the most commonly adopted methods for sap flow measurements. However, underestimations of up to 60% of the tree transpiration have been reported with this technique, although the causes are not certainly known. The insertion of TD sensors within the stems causes damage of the wood tissue and subsequent healing reactions, changing wood anatomy and likely the sap flow path. However, the anatomical changes in response to the insertion of sap flow sensors and the effects on the measured flow have not been assessed yet. In this study, we investigate the alteration of vessel anatomy on wounds formed around TD sensors. Our main objectives were to elucidate the anatomical causes of sap flow underestimation for ring-porous and diffuse-porous species, and relate these changes to sap flow underestimations. Successive sets of TD probes were installed in early, mid and end of the growing season in Fagus sylvatica (diffuse-porous) and Quercus petraea (ring-porous) trees. They were logged after the growing season and additional sets of sensors were installed in the logged stems with presumably no healing reaction. The wood tissue surrounding each sensor was then excised and analysed by X-ray computed microtomography (X-ray micro CT). This technique allowed the quantification of vessel anatomical characteristics and the reconstruction of the 3-D internal microstructure of the xylem vessels so that extension and shape of the altered area could be determined. Gels and tyloses clogged the conductive vessels around the sensors in both beech and oak. The extension of the affected area was larger for beech although these anatomical changes led to similar sap flow underestimations in both species. The higher vessel size in oak may explain this result and, therefore, larger sap flow underestimation per area of affected conductive tissue. The wound healing reaction likely occurred within the first weeks after sensor installation, which

  12. Echocardiography underestimates stroke volume and aortic valve area: implications for patients with small-area low-gradient aortic stenosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chin, Calvin W L; Khaw, Hwan J; Luo, Elton; Tan, Shuwei; White, Audrey C; Newby, David E; Dweck, Marc R

    2014-09-01

    Discordance between small aortic valve area (AVA; area (LVOTarea) and stroke volume alongside inconsistencies in recommended thresholds. One hundred thirty-three patients with mild to severe AS and 33 control individuals underwent comprehensive echocardiography and cardiovascular magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Stroke volume and LVOTarea were calculated using echocardiography and MRI, and the effects on AVA estimation were assessed. The relationship between AVA and MPG measurements was then modelled with nonlinear regression and consistent thresholds for these parameters calculated. Finally the effect of these modified AVA measurements and novel thresholds on the number of patients with small-area low-gradient AS was investigated. Compared with MRI, echocardiography underestimated LVOTarea (n = 40; -0.7 cm(2); 95% confidence interval [CI], -2.6 to 1.3), stroke volumes (-6.5 mL/m(2); 95% CI, -28.9 to 16.0) and consequently, AVA (-0.23 cm(2); 95% CI, -1.01 to 0.59). Moreover, an AVA of 1.0 cm(2) corresponded to MPG of 24 mm Hg based on echocardiographic measurements and 37 mm Hg after correction with MRI-derived stroke volumes. Based on conventional measures, 56 patients had discordant small-area low-gradient AS. Using MRI-derived stroke volumes and the revised thresholds, a 48% reduction in discordance was observed (n = 29). Echocardiography underestimated LVOTarea, stroke volume, and therefore AVA, compared with MRI. The thresholds based on current guidelines were also inconsistent. In combination, these factors explain > 40% of patients with discordant small-area low-gradient AS. Copyright © 2014 Canadian Cardiovascular Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. Decision-model estimation of the age-specific disability weight for schistosomiasis japonica: a systematic review of the literature.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julia L Finkelstein

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available Schistosomiasis is among the most prevalent parasitic infections worldwide. However, current Global Burden of Disease (GBD disability-adjusted life year estimates indicate that its population-level impact is negligible. Recent studies suggest that GBD methodologies may significantly underestimate the burden of parasitic diseases, including schistosomiasis. Furthermore, strain-specific disability weights have not been established for schistosomiasis, and the magnitude of human disease burden due to Schistosoma japonicum remains controversial. We used a decision model to quantify an alternative disability weight estimate of the burden of human disease due to S. japonicum. We reviewed S. japonicum morbidity data, and constructed decision trees for all infected persons and two age-specific strata, or =15 y. We conducted stochastic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses for each model. Infection with S. japonicum was associated with an average disability weight of 0.132, with age-specific disability weights of 0.098 ( or =15 y. Re-estimated disability weights were seven to 46 times greater than current GBD measures; no simulations produced disability weight estimates lower than 0.009. Nutritional morbidities had the greatest contribution to the S. japonicum disability weight in the <15 y model, whereas major organ pathologies were the most critical variables in the older age group. GBD disability weights for schistosomiasis urgently need to be revised, and species-specific disability weights should be established. Even a marginal increase in current estimates would result in a substantial rise in the estimated global burden of schistosomiasis, and have considerable implications for public health prioritization and resource allocation for schistosomiasis research, monitoring, and control.

  14. Social cure, what social cure? The propensity to underestimate the importance of social factors for health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haslam, S Alexander; McMahon, Charlotte; Cruwys, Tegan; Haslam, Catherine; Jetten, Jolanda; Steffens, Niklas K

    2018-02-01

    Recent meta-analytic research indicates that social support and social integration are highly protective against mortality, and that their importance is comparable to, or exceeds, that of many established behavioural risks such as smoking, high alcohol consumption, lack of exercise, and obesity that are the traditional focus of medical research (Holt-Lunstad et al., 2010). The present study examines perceptions of the contribution of these various factors to life expectancy within the community at large. American and British community respondents (N = 502) completed an on-line survey assessing the perceived importance of social and behavioural risk factors for mortality. As hypothesized, while respondents' perceptions of the importance of established behavioural risks was positively and highly correlated with their actual importance, social factors were seen to be far less important for health than they actually are. As a result, overall, there was a small but significant negative correlation between the perceived benefits and the actual benefits of different social and behavioural factors. Men, younger participants, and participants with a lower level of education were more likely to underestimate the importance of social factors for health. There was also evidence that underestimation was predicted by a cluster of ideological factors, the most significant of which was respondents' respect for prevailing convention and authorities as captured by Right-Wing Authoritarianism. Findings suggest that while people generally underestimate the importance of social factors for health this also varies as a function of demographic and ideological factors. They point to a range of challenges confronting those who seek to promote greater awareness of the importance of social factors for health. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Impact bias or underestimation? Outcome specifications predict the direction of affective forecasting errors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buechel, Eva C; Zhang, Jiao; Morewedge, Carey K

    2017-05-01

    Affective forecasts are used to anticipate the hedonic impact of future events and decide which events to pursue or avoid. We propose that because affective forecasters are more sensitive to outcome specifications of events than experiencers, the outcome specification values of an event, such as its duration, magnitude, probability, and psychological distance, can be used to predict the direction of affective forecasting errors: whether affective forecasters will overestimate or underestimate its hedonic impact. When specifications are positively correlated with the hedonic impact of an event, forecasters will overestimate the extent to which high specification values will intensify and low specification values will discount its impact. When outcome specifications are negatively correlated with its hedonic impact, forecasters will overestimate the extent to which low specification values will intensify and high specification values will discount its impact. These affective forecasting errors compound additively when multiple specifications are aligned in their impact: In Experiment 1, affective forecasters underestimated the hedonic impact of winning a smaller prize that they expected to win, and they overestimated the hedonic impact of winning a larger prize that they did not expect to win. In Experiment 2, affective forecasters underestimated the hedonic impact of a short unpleasant video about a temporally distant event, and they overestimated the hedonic impact of a long unpleasant video about a temporally near event. Experiments 3A and 3B showed that differences in the affect-richness of forecasted and experienced events underlie these differences in sensitivity to outcome specifications, therefore accounting for both the impact bias and its reversal. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  16. Commonly used reference values underestimate oxygen uptake in healthy, 50-year-old Swedish women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Genberg, M; Andrén, B; Lind, L; Hedenström, H; Malinovschi, A

    2018-01-01

    Cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET) is the gold standard among clinical exercise tests. It combines a conventional stress test with measurement of oxygen uptake (V O 2 ) and CO 2 production. No validated Swedish reference values exist, and reference values in women are generally understudied. Moreover, the importance of achieved respiratory exchange ratio (RER) and the significance of breathing reserve (BR) at peak exercise in healthy individuals are poorly understood. We compared V O 2 at maximal load (peakV O 2 ) and anaerobic threshold (V O 2@ AT ) in healthy Swedish individuals with commonly used reference values, taking gender into account. Further, we analysed maximal workload and peakV O 2 with regard to peak RER and BR. In all, 181 healthy, 50-year-old individuals (91 women) performed CPET. PeakV O 2 was best predicted using Jones et al. (100·5%), while SHIP reference values underestimated peakV O 2 most: 112·5%. Furthermore, underestimation of peakV O 2 in women was found for all studied reference values (P 1·1 (2 328·7 versus 2 176·7 ml min -1 , P = 0·11). Lower BR (≤30%) related to significantly higher peakV O 2 (Pvalues underestimated oxygen uptake in women. No evidence for demanding RER > 1·1 in healthy individuals was found. A lowered BR is probably a normal response to higher workloads in healthy individuals. © 2016 Scandinavian Society of Clinical Physiology and Nuclear Medicine. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  17. Systematic screening for Chlamydia trachomatis : Estimating cost-effectiveness using dynamic modeling and Dutch data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Vries, R.; Van Bergen, J.E.A.M.; de Jong-van den Berg, Lolkje; Postma, Maarten

    2006-01-01

    To estimate the cost-effectiveness of a systematic one-off Chlamydia trachomatis (CT) screening program including partner treatment for Dutch young adults. Data on infection prevalence, participation rates, and sexual behavior were obtained from a large pilot study conducted in The Netherlands.

  18. Systematic screening for Chlamydia trachomatis: estimating cost-effectiveness using dynamic modeling and Dutch data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Vries, Robin; van Bergen, Jan E. A. M.; de Jong-van den Berg, Lolkje T. W.; Postma, Maarten J.

    2006-01-01

    To estimate the cost-effectiveness of a systematic one-off Chlamydia trachomatis (CT) screening program including partner treatment for Dutch young adults. Data on infection prevalence, participation rates, and sexual behavior were obtained from a large pilot study conducted in The Netherlands.

  19. Using Multimodal Learning Analytics to Model Student Behaviour: A Systematic Analysis of Behavioural Framing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrade, Alejandro; Delandshere, Ginette; Danish, Joshua A.

    2016-01-01

    One of the challenges many learning scientists face is the laborious task of coding large amounts of video data and consistently identifying social actions, which is time consuming and difficult to accomplish in a systematic and consistent manner. It is easier to catalog observable behaviours (e.g., body motions or gaze) without explicitly…

  20. Towards a Conceptual Framework of Sustainable Business Model Innovation in the Agri-Food Sector: A Systematic Literature Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Henrik Barth

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to increase our understanding of sustainable business model innovation in the agri-food sector in terms of its theoretical and practical approaches for sustainability and their degree of complexity and maturity. The paper is based on a systematic literature review of 570 journal articles on business models and business model innovation published between 1990 and 2014. Of these articles, only 21 have business model innovation as their main focus. The review shows that research interest in the agri-food sector has increased in these years. The paper proposes a conceptual framework for sustainable business model innovation in the agri-food sector that can be used to meet the challenges encountered in taking a sustainability perspective.

  1. A permutation test to analyse systematic bias and random measurement errors of medical devices via boosting location and scale models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mayr, Andreas; Schmid, Matthias; Pfahlberg, Annette; Uter, Wolfgang; Gefeller, Olaf

    2017-06-01

    Measurement errors of medico-technical devices can be separated into systematic bias and random error. We propose a new method to address both simultaneously via generalized additive models for location, scale and shape (GAMLSS) in combination with permutation tests. More precisely, we extend a recently proposed boosting algorithm for GAMLSS to provide a test procedure to analyse potential device effects on the measurements. We carried out a large-scale simulation study to provide empirical evidence that our method is able to identify possible sources of systematic bias as well as random error under different conditions. Finally, we apply our approach to compare measurements of skin pigmentation from two different devices in an epidemiological study.

  2. Modeling systematic errors: polychromatic sources of Beer-Lambert deviations in HPLC/UV and nonchromatographic spectrophotometric assays.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galli, C

    2001-07-01

    It is well established that the use of polychromatic radiation in spectrophotometric assays leads to excursions from the Beer-Lambert limit. This Note models the resulting systematic error as a function of assay spectral width, slope of molecular extinction coefficient, and analyte concentration. The theoretical calculations are compared with recent experimental results; a parameter is introduced which can be used to estimate the magnitude of the systematic error in both chromatographic and nonchromatographic spectrophotometric assays. It is important to realize that the polychromatic radiation employed in common laboratory equipment can yield assay errors up to approximately 4%, even at absorption levels generally considered 'safe' (i.e. absorption <1). Thus careful consideration of instrumental spectral width, analyte concentration, and slope of molecular extinction coefficient is required to ensure robust analytical methods.

  3. Whole-word response scoring underestimates functional spelling ability for some individuals with global agraphia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew Tesla Demarco

    2015-05-01

    These data suggest that conventional whole-word scoring may significantly underestimate functional spelling performance. Because by-letter scoring boosted pre-treatment scores to the same extent as post-treatment scores, the magnitude of treatment gains was no greater than estimates from conventional whole-word scoring. Nonetheless, the surprisingly large disparity between conventional whole-word scoring and by-letter scoring suggests that by-letter scoring methods may warrant further investigation. Because by-letter analyses may hold interest to others, we plan to make the software tool used in this study available on-line for use to researchers and clinicians at large.

  4. Simulation modeling for stratified breast cancer screening - a systematic review of cost and quality of life assumptions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnold, Matthias

    2017-12-02

    The economic evaluation of stratified breast cancer screening gains momentum, but produces also very diverse results. Systematic reviews so far focused on modeling techniques and epidemiologic assumptions. However, cost and utility parameters received only little attention. This systematic review assesses simulation models for stratified breast cancer screening based on their cost and utility parameters in each phase of breast cancer screening and care. A literature review was conducted to compare economic evaluations with simulation models of personalized breast cancer screening. Study quality was assessed using reporting guidelines. Cost and utility inputs were extracted, standardized and structured using a care delivery framework. Studies were then clustered according to their study aim and parameters were compared within the clusters. Eighteen studies were identified within three study clusters. Reporting quality was very diverse in all three clusters. Only two studies in cluster 1, four studies in cluster 2 and one study in cluster 3 scored high in the quality appraisal. In addition to the quality appraisal, this review assessed if the simulation models were consistent in integrating all relevant phases of care, if utility parameters were consistent and methodological sound and if cost were compatible and consistent in the actual parameters used for screening, diagnostic work up and treatment. Of 18 studies, only three studies did not show signs of potential bias. This systematic review shows that a closer look into the cost and utility parameter can help to identify potential bias. Future simulation models should focus on integrating all relevant phases of care, using methodologically sound utility parameters and avoiding inconsistent cost parameters.

  5. Cost-Effectiveness of HBV and HCV Screening Strategies – A Systematic Review of Existing Modelling Techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geue, Claudia; Wu, Olivia; Xin, Yiqiao; Heggie, Robert; Hutchinson, Sharon; Martin, Natasha K.; Fenwick, Elisabeth; Goldberg, David

    2015-01-01

    Introduction Studies evaluating the cost-effectiveness of screening for Hepatitis B Virus (HBV) and Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) are generally heterogeneous in terms of risk groups, settings, screening intervention, outcomes and the economic modelling framework. It is therefore difficult to compare cost-effectiveness results between studies. This systematic review aims to summarise and critically assess existing economic models for HBV and HCV in order to identify the main methodological differences in modelling approaches. Methods A structured search strategy was developed and a systematic review carried out. A critical assessment of the decision-analytic models was carried out according to the guidelines and framework developed for assessment of decision-analytic models in Health Technology Assessment of health care interventions. Results The overall approach to analysing the cost-effectiveness of screening strategies was found to be broadly consistent for HBV and HCV. However, modelling parameters and related structure differed between models, producing different results. More recent publications performed better against a performance matrix, evaluating model components and methodology. Conclusion When assessing screening strategies for HBV and HCV infection, the focus should be on more recent studies, which applied the latest treatment regimes, test methods and had better and more complete data on which to base their models. In addition to parameter selection and associated assumptions, careful consideration of dynamic versus static modelling is recommended. Future research may want to focus on these methodological issues. In addition, the ability to evaluate screening strategies for multiple infectious diseases, (HCV and HIV at the same time) might prove important for decision makers. PMID:26689908

  6. High-risk lesions diagnosed at MRI-guided vacuum-assisted breast biopsy: can underestimation be predicted?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Crystal, Pavel [Mount Sinai Hospital, University Health Network, Division of Breast Imaging, Toronto, ON (Canada); Mount Sinai Hospital, Toronto, ON (Canada); Sadaf, Arifa; Bukhanov, Karina; Helbich, Thomas H. [Mount Sinai Hospital, University Health Network, Division of Breast Imaging, Toronto, ON (Canada); McCready, David [Princess Margaret Hospital, Department of Surgical Oncology, Toronto, ON (Canada); O' Malley, Frances [Mount Sinai Hospital, Department of Pathology, Laboratory Medicine, Toronto, ON (Canada)

    2011-03-15

    To evaluate the frequency of diagnosis of high-risk lesions at MRI-guided vacuum-assisted breast biopsy (MRgVABB) and to determine whether underestimation may be predicted. Retrospective review of the medical records of 161 patients who underwent MRgVABB was performed. The underestimation rate was defined as an upgrade of a high-risk lesion at MRgVABB to malignancy at surgery. Clinical data, MRI features of the biopsied lesions, and histological diagnosis of cases with and those without underestimation were compared. Of 161 MRgVABB, histology revealed 31 (19%) high-risk lesions. Of 26 excised high-risk lesions, 13 (50%) were upgraded to malignancy. The underestimation rates of lobular neoplasia, atypical apocrine metaplasia, atypical ductal hyperplasia, and flat epithelial atypia were 50% (4/8), 100% (5/5), 50% (3/6) and 50% (1/2) respectively. There was no underestimation in the cases of benign papilloma without atypia (0/3), and radial scar (0/2). No statistically significant differences (p > 0.1) between the cases with and those without underestimation were seen in patient age, indications for breast MRI, size of lesion on MRI, morphological and kinetic features of biopsied lesions. Imaging and clinical features cannot be used reliably to predict underestimation at MRgVABB. All high-risk lesions diagnosed at MRgVABB require surgical excision. (orig.)

  7. Models and Theories of Health Education and Health Promotion in Physical Activity Interventions for Women: a Systematic Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seyed Mohammad Mehdi Hazavehei

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: The present study as a systematic review investigated and analyzed interventions based on models and theories of health education and promotion in the field of physical activity in women. Materials and Methods: Three electronic databases, including Springer, Biomed Central and Science Direct were searched systematically. Only studies were selected that were quantitative, interventional and in English language as well as those that used at least one of the models and theories of health education and health promotion. Finally, 13 studies were reviewed that met the inclusion criteria and published from 2000 to 2013. Results: Of 13 studies reviewed, 10 studies measured levels of physical activity before and after the intervention, which nine interventions increased physical activity in the intervention group compared to the control group. Studies were conducted in different settings of health promotion including health care centers, community setting and workplace. The most widely used model was the Transtheoretical Model applied in eight of investigations. Conclusion: It is suggested to focus more on physical activity and duration of interventions to increase the efficacy of interventions. It is suggested to measure changes of physical activity habits in experimental and control groups in interventions based on the transtheoretical model to prepare a complementary scale to assess the efficacy of interventions. According to the results, no study had focused on changes in institutional policies or general health or providing changes in environment related to physical activity.

  8. Evaluation of Simulation Models that Estimate the Effect of Dietary Strategies on Nutritional Intake: A Systematic Review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grieger, Jessica A; Johnson, Brittany J; Wycherley, Thomas P; Golley, Rebecca K

    2017-05-01

    Background: Dietary simulation modeling can predict dietary strategies that may improve nutritional or health outcomes. Objectives: The study aims were to undertake a systematic review of simulation studies that model dietary strategies aiming to improve nutritional intake, body weight, and related chronic disease, and to assess the methodologic and reporting quality of these models. Methods: The Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guided the search strategy with studies located through electronic searches [Cochrane Library, Ovid (MEDLINE and Embase), EBSCOhost (CINAHL), and Scopus]. Study findings were described and dietary modeling methodology and reporting quality were critiqued by using a set of quality criteria adapted for dietary modeling from general modeling guidelines. Results: Forty-five studies were included and categorized as modeling moderation, substitution, reformulation, or promotion dietary strategies. Moderation and reformulation strategies targeted individual nutrients or foods to theoretically improve one particular nutrient or health outcome, estimating small to modest improvements. Substituting unhealthy foods with healthier choices was estimated to be effective across a range of nutrients, including an estimated reduction in intake of saturated fatty acids, sodium, and added sugar. Promotion of fruits and vegetables predicted marginal changes in intake. Overall, the quality of the studies was moderate to high, with certain features of the quality criteria consistently reported. Conclusions: Based on the results of reviewed simulation dietary modeling studies, targeting a variety of foods rather than individual foods or nutrients theoretically appears most effective in estimating improvements in nutritional intake, particularly reducing intake of nutrients commonly consumed in excess. A combination of strategies could theoretically be used to deliver the best improvement in outcomes. Study quality was moderate to

  9. Childhood leukaemia and low-level radiation - are we underestimating the risk?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wakeford, R.

    1996-01-01

    The Seascale childhood leukaemia 'cluster' can be interpreted as indicating that the risk of childhood leukaemia arising from low-level exposure to ionising radiation has been underestimated. Indeed, several variants of such an interpretation have been advanced. These include exposure to particular radionuclides, an underestimation of the radiation risk coefficient for childhood leukaemia, and the existence of a previously unrecognized risk of childhood leukaemia from the preconceptional irradiation of fathers. However, the scientific assessment of epidemiological associations is a complex matter, and such associations must be interpreted with caution. It would now seem most likely that the Seascale 'cluster' does not represent an unanticipated effect of the exposure to ionising radiation, but rather the effect of unusual population mixing generated by the Sellafield site which has produced an increase in the infection-based risk of childhood leukaemia. This episode in the history of epidemiological research provides a timely reminder of the need for great care in the interpretation-of novel statistical associations. (author)

  10. Drastic underestimation of amphipod biodiversity in the endangered Irano-Anatolian and Caucasus biodiversity hotspots.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katouzian, Ahmad-Reza; Sari, Alireza; Macher, Jan N; Weiss, Martina; Saboori, Alireza; Leese, Florian; Weigand, Alexander M

    2016-03-01

    Biodiversity hotspots are centers of biological diversity and particularly threatened by anthropogenic activities. Their true magnitude of species diversity and endemism, however, is still largely unknown as species diversity is traditionally assessed using morphological descriptions only, thereby ignoring cryptic species. This directly limits evidence-based monitoring and management strategies. Here we used molecular species delimitation methods to quantify cryptic diversity of the montane amphipods in the Irano-Anatolian and Caucasus biodiversity hotspots. Amphipods are ecosystem engineers in rivers and lakes. Species diversity was assessed by analysing two genetic markers (mitochondrial COI and nuclear 28S rDNA), compared with morphological assignments. Our results unambiguously demonstrate that species diversity and endemism is dramatically underestimated, with 42 genetically identified freshwater species in only five reported morphospecies. Over 90% of the newly recovered species cluster inside Gammarus komareki and G. lacustris; 69% of the recovered species comprise narrow range endemics. Amphipod biodiversity is drastically underestimated for the studied regions. Thus, the risk of biodiversity loss is significantly greater than currently inferred as most endangered species remain unrecognized and/or are only found locally. Integrative application of genetic assessments in monitoring programs will help to understand the true magnitude of biodiversity and accurately evaluate its threat status.

  11. Quantifying the underestimation of relative risks from genome-wide association studies.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chris Spencer

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Genome-wide association studies (GWAS have identified hundreds of associated loci across many common diseases. Most risk variants identified by GWAS will merely be tags for as-yet-unknown causal variants. It is therefore possible that identification of the causal variant, by fine mapping, will identify alleles with larger effects on genetic risk than those currently estimated from GWAS replication studies. We show that under plausible assumptions, whilst the majority of the per-allele relative risks (RR estimated from GWAS data will be close to the true risk at the causal variant, some could be considerable underestimates. For example, for an estimated RR in the range 1.2-1.3, there is approximately a 38% chance that it exceeds 1.4 and a 10% chance that it is over 2. We show how these probabilities can vary depending on the true effects associated with low-frequency variants and on the minor allele frequency (MAF of the most associated SNP. We investigate the consequences of the underestimation of effect sizes for predictions of an individual's disease risk and interpret our results for the design of fine mapping experiments. Although these effects mean that the amount of heritability explained by known GWAS loci is expected to be larger than current projections, this increase is likely to explain a relatively small amount of the so-called "missing" heritability.

  12. Underestimated risks of recurrent long-range ash dispersal from northern Pacific Arc volcanoes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bourne, A J; Abbott, P M; Albert, P G; Cook, E; Pearce, N J G; Ponomareva, V; Svensson, A; Davies, S M

    2016-07-21

    Widespread ash dispersal poses a significant natural hazard to society, particularly in relation to disruption to aviation. Assessing the extent of the threat of far-travelled ash clouds on flight paths is substantially hindered by an incomplete volcanic history and an underestimation of the potential reach of distant eruptive centres. The risk of extensive ash clouds to aviation is thus poorly quantified. New evidence is presented of explosive Late Pleistocene eruptions in the Pacific Arc, currently undocumented in the proximal geological record, which dispersed ash up to 8000 km from source. Twelve microscopic ash deposits or cryptotephra, invisible to the naked eye, discovered within Greenland ice-cores, and ranging in age between 11.1 and 83.7 ka b2k, are compositionally matched to northern Pacific Arc sources including Japan, Kamchatka, Cascades and Alaska. Only two cryptotephra deposits are correlated to known high-magnitude eruptions (Towada-H, Japan, ca 15 ka BP and Mount St Helens Set M, ca 28 ka BP). For the remaining 10 deposits, there is no evidence of age- and compositionally-equivalent eruptive events in regional volcanic stratigraphies. This highlights the inherent problem of under-reporting eruptions and the dangers of underestimating the long-term risk of widespread ash dispersal for trans-Pacific and trans-Atlantic flight routes.

  13. A systematic review of breast cancer incidence risk prediction models with meta-analysis of their performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meads, Catherine; Ahmed, Ikhlaaq; Riley, Richard D

    2012-04-01

    A risk prediction model is a statistical tool for estimating the probability that a currently healthy individual with specific risk factors will develop a condition in the future such as breast cancer. Reliably accurate prediction models can inform future disease burdens, health policies and individual decisions. Breast cancer prediction models containing modifiable risk factors, such as alcohol consumption, BMI or weight, condom use, exogenous hormone use and physical activity, are of particular interest to women who might be considering how to reduce their risk of breast cancer and clinicians developing health policies to reduce population incidence rates. We performed a systematic review to identify and evaluate the performance of prediction models for breast cancer that contain modifiable factors. A protocol was developed and a sensitive search in databases including MEDLINE and EMBASE was conducted in June 2010. Extensive use was made of reference lists. Included were any articles proposing or validating a breast cancer prediction model in a general female population, with no language restrictions. Duplicate data extraction and quality assessment were conducted. Results were summarised qualitatively, and where possible meta-analysis of model performance statistics was undertaken. The systematic review found 17 breast cancer models, each containing a different but often overlapping set of modifiable and other risk factors, combined with an estimated baseline risk that was also often different. Quality of reporting was generally poor, with characteristics of included participants and fitted model results often missing. Only four models received independent validation in external data, most notably the 'Gail 2' model with 12 validations. None of the models demonstrated consistently outstanding ability to accurately discriminate between those who did and those who did not develop breast cancer. For example, random-effects meta-analyses of the performance of the

  14. Interagency collaboration models for people with mental ill health in contact with the police: a systematic scoping review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parker, Adwoa; Scantlebury, Arabella; Booth, Alison; MacBryde, Jillian Catherine; Scott, William J; Wright, Kath; McDaid, Catriona

    2018-03-27

    To identify existing evidence on interagency collaboration between law enforcement, emergency services, statutory services and third sector agencies regarding people with mental ill health. Systematic scoping review. Scoping reviews map particular research areas to identify research gaps. ASSIA, CENTRAL, the Cochrane Library databases, Criminal Justice Abstracts, ERIC, Embase, MEDLINE, PsycINFO, PROSPERO and Social Care Online and Social Sciences Citation Index were searched up to 2017, as were grey literature and hand searches. Eligible articles were empirical evaluations or descriptions of models of interagency collaboration between the police and other agencies. Screening and data extraction were undertaken independently by two researchers. Arksey's framework was used to collate and map included studies. One hundred and twenty-five studies were included. The majority of articles were of descriptions of models (28%), mixed methods evaluations of models (18%) and single service evaluations (14%). The most frequently reported outcomes (52%) were 'organisational or service level outcomes' (eg, arrest rates). Most articles (53%) focused on adults with mental ill health, whereas others focused on adult offenders with mental ill health (17.4%). Thirteen models of interagency collaboration were described, each involving between 2 and 13 agencies. Frequently reported models were 'prearrest diversion' of people with mental ill health (34%), 'coresponse' involving joint response by police officers paired with mental health professionals (28.6%) and 'jail diversion' following arrest (23.8%). We identified 13 different interagency collaboration models catering for a range of mental health-related interactions. All but one of these models involved the police and mental health services or professionals. Several models have sufficient literature to warrant full systematic reviews of their effectiveness, whereas others need robust evaluation, by randomised controlled trial where

  15. Interagency collaboration models for people with mental ill health in contact with the police: a systematic scoping review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scantlebury, Arabella; Booth, Alison; MacBryde, Jillian Catherine; Scott, William J; Wright, Kath

    2018-01-01

    Objective To identify existing evidence on interagency collaboration between law enforcement, emergency services, statutory services and third sector agencies regarding people with mental ill health. Design Systematic scoping review. Scoping reviews map particular research areas to identify research gaps. Data sources and eligibility ASSIA, CENTRAL, the Cochrane Library databases, Criminal Justice Abstracts, ERIC, Embase, MEDLINE, PsycINFO, PROSPERO and Social Care Online and Social Sciences Citation Index were searched up to 2017, as were grey literature and hand searches. Eligible articles were empirical evaluations or descriptions of models of interagency collaboration between the police and other agencies. Study appraisal and synthesis Screening and data extraction were undertaken independently by two researchers. Arksey’s framework was used to collate and map included studies. Results One hundred and twenty-five studies were included. The majority of articles were of descriptions of models (28%), mixed methods evaluations of models (18%) and single service evaluations (14%). The most frequently reported outcomes (52%) were ‘organisational or service level outcomes’ (eg, arrest rates). Most articles (53%) focused on adults with mental ill health, whereas others focused on adult offenders with mental ill health (17.4%). Thirteen models of interagency collaboration were described, each involving between 2 and 13 agencies. Frequently reported models were ‘prearrest diversion’ of people with mental ill health (34%), ‘coresponse’ involving joint response by police officers paired with mental health professionals (28.6%) and ‘jail diversion’ following arrest (23.8%). Conclusions We identified 13 different interagency collaboration models catering for a range of mental health-related interactions. All but one of these models involved the police and mental health services or professionals. Several models have sufficient literature to warrant full

  16. Effects of volume resuscitation on the microcirculation in animal models of lipopolysaccharide sepsis: a systematic review

    OpenAIRE

    Obonyo, Nchafatso G.; Fanning, Jonathon P.; Ng, Angela S. Y.; Pimenta, Leticia P.; Shekar, Kiran; Platts, David G.; Maitland, Kathryn; Fraser, John F.

    2016-01-01

    Background Recent research has identified an increased rate of mortality associated with fluid bolus therapy for severe sepsis and septic shock, but the mechanisms are still not well understood. Fluid resuscitation therapy administered for sepsis and septic shock targets restoration of the macro-circulation, but the pathogenesis of sepsis is complex and includes microcirculatory dysfunction. Objective The objective of the study is to systematically review data comparing the effects of differe...

  17. Developing and Optimising the Use of Logic Models in Systematic Reviews: Exploring Practice and Good Practice in the Use of Programme Theory in Reviews.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kneale, Dylan; Thomas, James; Harris, Katherine

    2015-01-01

    Logic models are becoming an increasingly common feature of systematic reviews, as is the use of programme theory more generally in systematic reviewing. Logic models offer a framework to help reviewers to 'think' conceptually at various points during the review, and can be a useful tool in defining study inclusion and exclusion criteria, guiding the search strategy, identifying relevant outcomes, identifying mediating and moderating factors, and communicating review findings. In this paper we critique the use of logic models in systematic reviews and protocols drawn from two databases representing reviews of health interventions and international development interventions. Programme theory featured only in a minority of the reviews and protocols included. Despite drawing from different disciplinary traditions, reviews and protocols from both sources shared several limitations in their use of logic models and theories of change, and these were used almost unanimously to solely depict pictorially the way in which the intervention worked. Logic models and theories of change were consequently rarely used to communicate the findings of the review. Logic models have the potential to be an aid integral throughout the systematic reviewing process. The absence of good practice around their use and development may be one reason for the apparent limited utility of logic models in many existing systematic reviews. These concerns are addressed in the second half of this paper, where we offer a set of principles in the use of logic models and an example of how we constructed a logic model for a review of school-based asthma interventions.

  18. An evaluation of a model for the systematic documentation of hospital based health promotion activities: results from a multicentre study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Morris Denise

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The first step of handling health promotion (HP in Diagnosis Related Groups (DRGs is a systematic documentation and registration of the activities in the medical records. So far the possibility and tradition for systematic registration of clinical HP activities in the medical records and in patient administrative systems have been sparse. Therefore, the activities are mostly invisible in the registers of hospital services as well as in budgets and balances. A simple model has been described to structure the registration of the HP procedures performed by the clinical staff. The model consists of two parts; first part includes motivational counselling (7 codes and the second part comprehends intervention, rehabilitation and after treatment (8 codes. The objective was to evaluate in an international study the usefulness, applicability and sufficiency of a simple model for the systematic registration of clinical HP procedures in day life. Methods The multi centre project was carried out in 19 departments/hospitals in 6 countries in a clinical setup. The study consisted of three parts in accordance with the objectives. A: Individual test. 20 consecutive medical records from each participating department/hospital were coded by the (coding specialists at local department/hospital, exclusively (n = 5,529 of 5,700 possible tests in total. B: Common test. 14 standardized medical records were coded by all the specialists from 17 departments/hospitals, who returned 3,046 of 3,570 tests. C: Specialist evaluation. The specialists from the 19 departments/hospitals evaluated if the codes were useful, applicable and sufficient for the registration in their own department/hospital (239 of 285. Results A: In 97 to100% of the local patient pathways the specialists were able to evaluate if there was documentation of HP activities in the medical record to be coded. B: Inter rater reliability on the use of the codes were 93% (57 to 100% and 71% (31

  19. Individual, premigration and postsettlement factors, and academic achievement in adolescents from refugee backgrounds: A systematic review and model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Charissa W S; Schweitzer, Robert D

    2017-01-01

    We have limited understanding of the precursors of academic achievement in resettled adolescents from refugee backgrounds. To date, no clear model has been developed to conceptualise the academic trajectories of adolescents from refugee backgrounds at postsettlement. The current review had two aims. First, to propose an integrated adaptive model to conceptualise the impact of individual, premigration, and postsettlement factors on academic achievement at postsettlement; and second, to critically examine the literature on factors that predict academic achievement in adolescents from refugee backgrounds in relation to the proposed model and highlight issues deserving future exploration. Following the protocol of a systematic literature review, 13 studies were identified for full-text review. Gender, ethnicity, English proficiency, psychological distress, premigration trauma, premigration loss, postsettlement social support, and postsettlement school connectedness, were found to predict academic achievement in adolescents from refugee backgrounds.

  20. Few promising multivariable prognostic models exist for recovery of people with non-specific neck pain in musculoskeletal primary care: A systematic review

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R.W. Wingbermühle (Roel); E. van Trijffel (Emiel); Nelissen, P.M. (Paul M.); B.W. Koes (Bart); A.P. Verhagen (Arianne)

    2017-01-01

    markdownabstractQuestion: Which multivariable prognostic model(s) for recovery in people with neck pain can be used in primary care? Design: Systematic review of studies evaluating multivariable prognostic models. Participants: People with non-specific neck pain presenting at primary care.

  1. A systematic and critical review of model-based economic evaluations of pharmacotherapeutics in patients with bipolar disorder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohiuddin, Syed

    2014-08-01

    Bipolar disorder (BD) is a chronic and relapsing mental illness with a considerable health-related and economic burden. The primary goal of pharmacotherapeutics for BD is to improve patients' well-being. The use of decision-analytic models is key in assessing the added value of the pharmacotherapeutics aimed at treating the illness, but concerns have been expressed about the appropriateness of different modelling techniques and about the transparency in the reporting of economic evaluations. This paper aimed to identify and critically appraise published model-based economic evaluations of pharmacotherapeutics in BD patients. A systematic review combining common terms for BD and economic evaluation was conducted in MEDLINE, EMBASE, PSYCINFO and ECONLIT. Studies identified were summarised and critically appraised in terms of the use of modelling technique, model structure and data sources. Considering the prognosis and management of BD, the possible benefits and limitations of each modelling technique are discussed. Fourteen studies were identified using model-based economic evaluations of pharmacotherapeutics in BD patients. Of these 14 studies, nine used Markov, three used discrete-event simulation (DES) and two used decision-tree models. Most of the studies (n = 11) did not include the rationale for the choice of modelling technique undertaken. Half of the studies did not include the risk of mortality. Surprisingly, no study considered the risk of having a mixed bipolar episode. This review identified various modelling issues that could potentially reduce the comparability of one pharmacotherapeutic intervention with another. Better use and reporting of the modelling techniques in the future studies are essential. DES modelling appears to be a flexible and comprehensive technique for evaluating the comparability of BD treatment options because of its greater flexibility of depicting the disease progression over time. However, depending on the research question

  2. Study on the systematic approach of Markov modeling for dependability analysis of complex fault-tolerant features with voting logics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Son, Kwang Seop; Kim, Dong Hoon; Kim, Chang Hwoi; Kang, Hyun Gook

    2016-01-01

    The Markov analysis is a technique for modeling system state transitions and calculating the probability of reaching various system states. While it is a proper tool for modeling complex system designs involving timing, sequencing, repair, redundancy, and fault tolerance, as the complexity or size of the system increases, so does the number of states of interest, leading to difficulty in constructing and solving the Markov model. This paper introduces a systematic approach of Markov modeling to analyze the dependability of a complex fault-tolerant system. This method is based on the decomposition of the system into independent subsystem sets, and the system-level failure rate and the unavailability rate for the decomposed subsystems. A Markov model for the target system is easily constructed using the system-level failure and unavailability rates for the subsystems, which can be treated separately. This approach can decrease the number of states to consider simultaneously in the target system by building Markov models of the independent subsystems stage by stage, and results in an exact solution for the Markov model of the whole target system. To apply this method we construct a Markov model for the reactor protection system found in nuclear power plants, a system configured with four identical channels and various fault-tolerant architectures. The results show that the proposed method in this study treats the complex architecture of the system in an efficient manner using the merits of the Markov model, such as a time dependent analysis and a sequential process analysis. - Highlights: • Systematic approach of Markov modeling for system dependability analysis is proposed based on the independent subsystem set, its failure rate and unavailability rate. • As an application example, we construct the Markov model for the digital reactor protection system configured with four identical and independent channels, and various fault-tolerant architectures. • The

  3. Efficient trawl avoidance by mesopelagic fishes causes large underestimation of their biomass

    KAUST Repository

    Kaartvedt, Stein

    2012-06-07

    Mesopelagic fishes occur in all the world’s oceans, but their abundance and consequently their ecological significance remains uncertain. The current global estimate based on net sampling prior to 1980 suggests a global abundance of one gigatonne (109 t) wet weight. Here we report novel evidence of efficient avoidance of such sampling by the most common myctophid fish in the Northern Atlantic, i.e. Benthosema glaciale. We reason that similar avoidance of nets may explain consistently higher acoustic abundance estimates of mesopelagic fish from different parts of the world’s oceans. It appears that mesopelagic fish abundance may be underestimated by one order of magnitude, suggesting that the role of mesopelagic fish in the oceans might need to be revised.

  4. Does verbatim sentence recall underestimate the language competence of near-native speakers?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Judith eSchweppe

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Verbatim sentence recall is widely used to test the language competence of native and non-native speakers since it involves comprehension and production of connected speech. However, we assume that, to maintain surface information, sentence recall relies particularly on attentional resources, which differentially affects native and non-native speakers. Since even in near-natives language processing is less automatized than in native speakers, processing a sentence in a foreign language plus retaining its surface may result in a cognitive overload. We contrasted sentence recall performance of German native speakers with that of highly proficient non-natives. Non-natives recalled the sentences significantly poorer than the natives, but performed equally well on a cloze test. This implies that sentence recall underestimates the language competence of good non-native speakers in mixed groups with native speakers. The findings also suggest that theories of sentence recall need to consider both its linguistic and its attentional aspects.

  5. Terrestrial pesticide exposure of amphibians: an underestimated cause of global decline?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brühl, Carsten A; Schmidt, Thomas; Pieper, Silvia; Alscher, Annika

    2013-01-01

    Amphibians, a class of animals in global decline, are present in agricultural landscapes characterized by agrochemical inputs. Effects of pesticides on terrestrial life stages of amphibians such as juvenile and adult frogs, toads and newts are little understood and a specific risk assessment for pesticide exposure, mandatory for other vertebrate groups, is currently not conducted. We studied the effects of seven pesticide products on juvenile European common frogs (Rana temporaria) in an agricultural overspray scenario. Mortality ranged from 100% after one hour to 40% after seven days at the recommended label rate of currently registered products. The demonstrated toxicity is alarming and a large-scale negative effect of terrestrial pesticide exposure on amphibian populations seems likely. Terrestrial pesticide exposure might be underestimated as a driver of their decline calling for more attention in conservation efforts and the risk assessment procedures in place do not protect this vanishing animal group.

  6. How and why DNA barcodes underestimate the diversity of microbial eukaryotes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gwenael Piganeau

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Because many picoplanktonic eukaryotic species cannot currently be maintained in culture, direct sequencing of PCR-amplified 18S ribosomal gene DNA fragments from filtered sea-water has been successfully used to investigate the astounding diversity of these organisms. The recognition of many novel planktonic organisms is thus based solely on their 18S rDNA sequence. However, a species delimited by its 18S rDNA sequence might contain many cryptic species, which are highly differentiated in their protein coding sequences. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Here, we investigate the issue of species identification from one gene to the whole genome sequence. Using 52 whole genome DNA sequences, we estimated the global genetic divergence in protein coding genes between organisms from different lineages and compared this to their ribosomal gene sequence divergences. We show that this relationship between proteome divergence and 18S divergence is lineage dependent. Unicellular lineages have especially low 18S divergences relative to their protein sequence divergences, suggesting that 18S ribosomal genes are too conservative to assess planktonic eukaryotic diversity. We provide an explanation for this lineage dependency, which suggests that most species with large effective population sizes will show far less divergence in 18S than protein coding sequences. CONCLUSIONS: There is therefore a trade-off between using genes that are easy to amplify in all species, but which by their nature are highly conserved and underestimate the true number of species, and using genes that give a better description of the number of species, but which are more difficult to amplify. We have shown that this trade-off differs between unicellular and multicellular organisms as a likely consequence of differences in effective population sizes. We anticipate that biodiversity of microbial eukaryotic species is underestimated and that numerous "cryptic species" will become

  7. Parenting practices, parents' underestimation of daughters' risks, and alcohol and sexual behaviors of urban girls.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Donnell, Lydia; Stueve, Ann; Duran, Richard; Myint-U, Athi; Agronick, Gail; San Doval, Alexi; Wilson-Simmons, Renée

    2008-05-01

    In urban economically distressed communities, high rates of early sexual initiation combined with alcohol use place adolescent girls at risk for myriad negative health consequences. This article reports on the extent to which parents of young teens underestimate both the risks their daughters are exposed to and the considerable influence that they have over their children's decisions and behaviors. Surveys were conducted with more than 700 sixth-grade girls and their parents, recruited from seven New York City schools serving low-income families. Bivariate and multivariate analyses examined relationships among parents' practices and perceptions of daughters' risks, girls' reports of parenting, and outcomes of girls' alcohol use, media and peer conduct, and heterosexual romantic and social behaviors that typically precede sexual intercourse. Although only four parents thought that their daughters had used alcohol, 22% of the daughters reported drinking in the past year. Approximately 5% of parents thought that daughters had hugged and kissed a boy for a long time or had "hung out" with older boys, whereas 38% of girls reported these behaviors. Parents' underestimation of risk was correlated with lower reports of positive parenting practices by daughters. In multivariate analyses, girls' reports of parental oversight, rules, and disapproval of risk are associated with all three behavioral outcomes. Adult reports of parenting practices are associated with girls' conduct and heterosexual behaviors, but not with their alcohol use. Creating greater awareness of the early onset of risk behaviors among urban adolescent girls is important for fostering positive parenting practices, which in turn may help parents to support their daughters' healthier choices.

  8. Is oral cancer incidence among patients with oral lichen planus/oral lichenoid lesions underestimated?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonzalez-Moles, M A; Gil-Montoya, J A; Ruiz-Avila, I; Bravo, M

    2017-02-01

    Oral lichen planus (OLP) and oral lichenoid lesions (OLL) are considered potentially malignant disorders with a cancer incidence of around 1% of cases, although this estimation is controversial. The aim of this study was to analyze the cancer incidence in a case series of patients with OLP and OLL and to explore clinicopathological aspects that may cause underestimation of the cancer incidence in these diseases. A retrospective study was conducted of 102 patients diagnosed with OLP (n = 21, 20.58%) or OLL (n = 81) between January 2006 and January 2016. Patients were informed of the risk of malignization and followed up annually. The number of sessions programmed for each patient was compared with the number actually attended. Follow-up was classified as complete (100% attendance), good (75-99%), moderate (25-74%), or poor (<25% attendance) compliance. Cancer was developed by four patients (3.9%), three males and one male. One of these developed three carcinomas, which were diagnosed at the follow-up visit (two in lower gingiva, one in floor of mouth); one had OLL and the other three had OLP. The carcinoma developed in mucosal areas with no OLP or OLL involvement in three of these patients, while OLP and cancer were diagnosed simultaneously in the fourth. Of the six carcinomas diagnosed, five (83.3%) were T1 and one (16.7%) T2. None were N+, and all patients remain alive and disease-free. The cancer incidence in OLP and OLL appears to be underestimated due to the strict exclusion criteria usually imposed. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  9. Life course socio-economic position and quality of life in adulthood: a systematic review of life course models

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Background A relationship between current socio-economic position and subjective quality of life has been demonstrated, using wellbeing, life and needs satisfaction approaches. Less is known regarding the influence of different life course socio-economic trajectories on later quality of life. Several conceptual models have been proposed to help explain potential life course effects on health, including accumulation, latent, pathway and social mobility models. This systematic review aimed to assess whether evidence supported an overall relationship between life course socio-economic position and quality of life during adulthood and if so, whether there was support for one or more life course models. Methods A review protocol was developed detailing explicit inclusion and exclusion criteria, search terms, data extraction items and quality appraisal procedures. Literature searches were performed in 12 electronic databases during January 2012 and the references and citations of included articles were checked for additional relevant articles. Narrative synthesis was used to analyze extracted data and studies were categorized based on the life course model analyzed. Results Twelve studies met the eligibility criteria and used data from 10 datasets and five countries. Study quality varied and heterogeneity between studies was high. Seven studies assessed social mobility models, five assessed the latent model, two assessed the pathway model and three tested the accumulation model. Evidence indicated an overall relationship, but mixed results were found for each life course model. Some evidence was found to support the latent model among women, but not men. Social mobility models were supported in some studies, but overall evidence suggested little to no effect. Few studies addressed accumulation and pathway effects and study heterogeneity limited synthesis. Conclusions To improve potential for synthesis in this area, future research should aim to increase study

  10. Leaders' experiences and perceptions implementing activity-based funding and pay-for-performance hospital funding models: A systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baxter, Pamela E; Hewko, Sarah J; Pfaff, Kathryn A; Cleghorn, Laura; Cunningham, Barbara J; Elston, Dawn; Cummings, Greta G

    2015-08-01

    Providing cost-effective, accessible, high quality patient care is a challenge to governments and health care delivery systems across the globe. In response to this challenge, two types of hospital funding models have been widely implemented: (1) activity-based funding (ABF) and (2) pay-for-performance (P4P). Although health care leaders play a critical role in the implementation of these funding models, to date their perspectives have not been systematically examined. The purpose of this systematic review was to gain a better understanding of the experiences of health care leaders implementing hospital funding reforms within Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development countries. We searched literature from 1982 to 2013 using: Medline, EMBASE, CINAHL, Academic Search Complete, Academic Search Elite, and Business Source Complete. Two independent reviewers screened titles, abstracts and full texts using predefined criteria. We included 2 mixed methods and 12 qualitative studies. Thematic analysis was used in synthesizing results. Five common themes and multiple subthemes emerged. Themes include: pre-requisites for success, perceived benefits, barriers/challenges, unintended consequences, and leader recommendations. Irrespective of which type of hospital funding reform was implemented, health care leaders described a complex process requiring the following: organizational commitment; adequate infrastructure; human, financial and information technology resources; change champions and a personal commitment to quality care. Crown Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Screening to prevent spontaneous preterm birth: systematic reviews of accuracy and effectiveness literature with economic modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Honest, H; Forbes, C A; Durée, K H; Norman, G; Duffy, S B; Tsourapas, A; Roberts, T E; Barton, P M; Jowett, S M; Hyde, C J; Khan, K S

    2009-09-01

    To identify combinations of tests and treatments to predict and prevent spontaneous preterm birth. Searches were run on the following databases up to September 2005 inclusive: MEDLINE, EMBASE, DARE, the Cochrane Library (CENTRAL and Cochrane Pregnancy and Childbirth Group trials register) and MEDION. We also contacted experts including the Cochrane Pregnancy and Childbirth Group and checked reference lists of review articles and papers that were eligible for inclusion. Two series of systematic reviews were performed: (1) accuracy of tests for the prediction of spontaneous preterm birth in asymptomatic women in early pregnancy and in women symptomatic with threatened preterm labour in later pregnancy; (2) effectiveness of interventions with potential to reduce cases of spontaneous preterm birth in asymptomatic women in early pregnancy and to reduce spontaneous preterm birth or improve neonatal outcome in women with a viable pregnancy symptomatic of threatened preterm labour. For the health economic evaluation, a model-based analysis incorporated the combined effect of tests and treatments and their cost-effectiveness. Of the 22 tests reviewed for accuracy, the quality of studies and accuracy of tests was generally poor. Only a few tests had LR+ > 5. In asymptomatic women these were ultrasonographic cervical length measurement and cervicovaginal prolactin and fetal fibronectin screening for predicting spontaneous preterm birth before 34 weeks. In this group, tests with LR- 5 were absence of fetal breathing movements, cervical length and funnelling, amniotic fluid interleukin-6 (IL-6), serum CRP for predicting birth within 2-7 days of testing, and matrix metalloprotease-9, amniotic fluid IL-6, cervicovaginal fetal fibronectin and cervicovaginal human chorionic gonadotrophin (hCG) for predicting birth before 34 or 37 weeks. In this group, tests with LR- asymptomatic women. Non-steroidal anti-inflammatory agents were the most effective tocolytic agent for reducing

  12. A Conceptual Model of Agile Software Development in a Safety-Critical Context: A Systematic Literature Review

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tordrup Heeager, Lise; Nielsen, Peter Axel

    2018-01-01

    challenges of agile software development of safety-critical systems. The conceptual model consists of four problematic practice areas and five relationships, which we find to be even more important than the problematic areas. From this review, we suggest that there are important research gaps that need...... processes or agile processes that are purportedly faster and promise to lead to better products. Objective: To identify the issues and disputes in agile development of safety-critical software and the key qualities as found in the extant research literature. Method: We conducted a systematic literature...... review as an interpretive study following a research design to search, assess, extract, group, and understand the results of the found studies. Results: There are key issues and propositions that we elicit from the literature and combine into a conceptual model for understanding the foundational...

  13. A systematic review on in vitro 3D bone metastases models: A new horizon to recapitulate the native clinical scenario?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salamanna, Francesca; Contartese, Deyanira; Maglio, Melania; Fini, Milena

    2016-07-12

    While the skeleton is not the only organ where metastasis can occur, it is one of the preferred sites, with a significant impact in patients' quality of life. With the aim of delineating the cellular and molecular mechanisms of bone metastasis, numerous studies have been employed to identify any contributing factors that trigger cancer progression. One of the major limitations of studying cancer-bone metastasis is the multifaceted nature of the native bone environment and the lack of reliable, simple, and not expensive models that strictly mimic the biological processes occurring in vivo allowing a correct translation of results. Currently, with the growing acceptance of in vitro models as effective tools for studying cancer biology, three-dimensional (3D) models have emerged as a compromise between two-dimensional cultures of isolated cancer cells and the complexity of human cancer xenografts in immunocompromised animal hosts. This descriptive systematic literature review summarizes the current status of advanced and alternative 3D in vitro bone metastases models. We have also reviewed the strategies employed by researchers to set-up these models with special reference to recent promising developments trying to better replicate the complexity and heterogeneity of a human metastasis in situ, with an outlook at their use in medicine. All these aspects will greatly contribute to the existing knowledge on bone metastases, providing a specific link to clinical scenarios and thus making 3D in vitro bone metastasis models an attractive tool for multidisciplinary experts.

  14. A systematic review of innovative diabetes care models in low-and middle-income countries (LMICs).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esterson, Yonah B; Carey, Michelle; Piette, John D; Thomas, Nihal; Hawkins, Meredith

    2014-02-01

    Over 70% of the world's patients with diabetes reside in low-and middle-income countries (LMICs), where adequate infrastructure and resources for diabetes care are often lacking. Therefore, academic institutions, health care organizations, and governments from Western nations and LMICs have worked together to develop a variety of effective diabetes care models for resource-poor settings. A focused search of PubMed was conducted with the goal of identifying reports that addressed the implementation of diabetes care models or initiatives to improve clinical and/or biochemical outcomes in patients with diabetes mellitus. A total of 15 published manuscripts comprising nine diabetes care models in 16 locations in sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America, and Asia identified by the above approach were systematically reviewed. The reviewed models shared a number of principles including collaboration, education, standardization, resource optimization, and technological innovation. The most comprehensive models used a number of these principles, which contributed to their success. Reviewing the principles shared by these successful programs may help guide the development of effective future models for diabetes care in low-income settings.

  15. Composition effects on chemical durability and viscosity of nuclear waste glasses - systematic studies and structural thermodynamic models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Feng, X.

    1988-01-01

    Two of the primary criteria for the acceptability of nuclear waste glasses are their durability, i.e. chemical resistance to aqueous attack for 10 4 to 10 5 years, and processability, which requires their viscosity at the desired melt temperature to be sufficiently low. Chapter 3 presents the results of systematic composition variation studies around the preliminary reference glass composition WV205 and an atomistic interpretation of the effects of individual oxides. Chapter 4 is concerned with modifications of the Jantzen-Plodinec hydration model which takes into account formation of complex aluminosilicate compounds in the glass. Chapter 5 is devoted to the development and validation of the structural-thermodynamic model for both durability and viscosity. This model assumes the strength of bonds between atoms to be the controlling factor in the composition dependence of these glass properties. The binding strengths are derived from the known heats of formation and the structural roles of constituent oxides. Since the coordination state of various oxides in the glass is temperature dependent and cation size has opposite effects on the two properties, the correlation between melt viscosity and rate of corrosion at low temperature is not simply linear. Chapter 6 surveys the effects of aqueous phase composition on the leach behavior of glasses. These studies provide a comprehensive view of the effects of both glass composition and leachant composition on leaching. The models developed correlate both durability and viscosity with glass composition. A major implication is that these findings can be used in the systematic optimization of the properties of complex oxide glasses

  16. Women's maternity care needs and related service models in rural areas: A comprehensive systematic review of qualitative evidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoang, Ha; Le, Quynh; Ogden, Kathryn

    2014-12-01

    Understanding the needs of rural women in maternity care and service models available to them is significant for the development of effective policies and the sustainability of rural communities. Nevertheless, no systematic review of studies addressing these needs has been conducted. To synthesise the best available evidence on the experiences of women's needs in maternity care and existing service models in rural areas. Literature search of ten electronic databases, digital theses, and reference lists of relevant studies applying inclusion/exclusion criteria was conducted. Selected papers were assessed using standardised critical appraisal instruments from JBI-QARI. Data extracted from these studies were synthesised using thematic synthesis. 12 studies met the inclusion criteria. There were three main themes and several sub-themes identified. A comprehensive set of the maternity care expectations of rural women was reported in this review including safety (7), continuity of care (6) and quality of care (6), and informed choices needs (4). In addition, challenges in accessing maternity services also emerged from the literature such as access (6), risk of travelling (9) and associated cost of travel (9). Four models of maternity care examined in the literature were medically led care (5), GP-led care (4), midwifery-led care (7) and home birth (6). The systematic review demonstrates the importance of including well-conducted qualitative studies in informing the development of evidence-based policies to address women's maternity care needs and inform service models. Synthesising the findings from qualitative studies offers important insight for informing effective public health policy. Copyright © 2014 Australian College of Midwives. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. It is time to abandon "expected bladder capacity." Systematic review and new models for children's normal maximum voided volumes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martínez-García, Roberto; Ubeda-Sansano, Maria Isabel; Díez-Domingo, Javier; Pérez-Hoyos, Santiago; Gil-Salom, Manuel

    2014-09-01

    There is an agreement to use simple formulae (expected bladder capacity and other age based linear formulae) as bladder capacity benchmark. But real normal child's bladder capacity is unknown. To offer a systematic review of children's normal bladder capacity, to measure children's normal maximum voided volumes (MVVs), to construct models of MVVs and to compare them with the usual formulae. Computerized, manual and grey literature were reviewed until February 2013. Epidemiological, observational, transversal, multicenter study. A consecutive sample of healthy children aged 5-14 years, attending Primary Care centres with no urologic abnormality were selected. Participants filled-in a 3-day frequency-volume chart. Variables were MVVs: maximum of 24 hr, nocturnal, and daytime maximum voided volumes. diuresis and its daytime and nighttime fractions; body-measure data; and gender. The consecutive steps method was used in a multivariate regression model. Twelve articles accomplished systematic review's criteria. Five hundred and fourteen cases were analysed. Three models, one for each of the MVVs, were built. All of them were better adjusted to exponential equations. Diuresis (not age) was the most significant factor. There was poor agreement between MVVs and usual formulae. Nocturnal and daytime maximum voided volumes depend on several factors and are different. Nocturnal and daytime maximum voided volumes should be used with different meanings in clinical setting. Diuresis is the main factor for bladder capacity. This is the first model for benchmarking normal MVVs with diuresis as its main factor. Current formulae are not suitable for clinical use. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  18. A systematic multiscale modeling and experimental approach to protect grain boundaries in magnesium alloys from corrosion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Horstemeyer, Mark R. [Mississippi State Univ., Mississippi State, MS (United States); Chaudhuri, Santanu [Univ. of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, IL (United States)

    2015-09-30

    A multiscale modeling Internal State Variable (ISV) constitutive model was developed that captures the fundamental structure-property relationships. The macroscale ISV model used lower length scale simulations (Butler-Volmer and Electronics Structures results) in order to inform the ISVs at the macroscale. The chemomechanical ISV model was calibrated and validated from experiments with magnesium (Mg) alloys that were investigated under corrosive environments coupled with experimental electrochemical studies. Because the ISV chemomechanical model is physically based, it can be used for other material systems to predict corrosion behavior. As such, others can use the chemomechanical model for analyzing corrosion effects on their designs.

  19. Breakdown of hot-spot model in determining convective amplification in large homogeneous systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mounaix, Philippe; Divol, Laurent

    2004-01-01

    Convective amplification in large homogeneous systems is studied, both analytically and numerically, in the case of a linear diffraction-free stochastic amplifier. Overall amplification does not result from successive amplifications in small scale high intensity hot spots, but from a single amplification in a delocalized mode of the driver field spreading over the whole interaction length. For this model, the hot-spot approach is found to systematically underestimate the gain factor by more than 50%

  20. SEMI-EMPIRICAL WHITE DWARF INITIAL-FINAL MASS RELATIONSHIPS: A THOROUGH ANALYSIS OF SYSTEMATIC UNCERTAINTIES DUE TO STELLAR EVOLUTION MODELS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salaris, Maurizio; Serenelli, Aldo; Weiss, Achim; Miller Bertolami, Marcelo

    2009-01-01

    Using the most recent results about white dwarfs (WDs) in ten open clusters, we revisit semiempirical estimates of the initial-final mass relation (IFMR) in star clusters, with emphasis on the use of stellar evolution models. We discuss the influence of these models on each step of the derivation. One intention of our work is to use consistent sets of calculations both for the isochrones and the WD cooling tracks. The second one is to derive the range of systematic errors arising from stellar evolution theory. This is achieved by using different sources for the stellar models and by varying physical assumptions and input data. We find that systematic errors, including the determination of the cluster age, are dominating the initial mass values, while observational uncertainties influence the final mass primarily. After having determined the systematic errors, the initial-final mass relation allows us finally to draw conclusions about the physics of the stellar models, in particular about convective overshooting.

  1. SPIRIT: Systematic Planning of Intelligent Reuse of Integrated Clinical Routine Data. A Conceptual Best-practice Framework and Procedure Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hackl, W O; Ammenwerth, E

    2016-01-01

    Secondary use of clinical routine data is receiving an increasing amount of attention in biomedicine and healthcare. However, building and analysing integrated clinical routine data repositories are nontrivial, challenging tasks. As in most evolving fields, recognized standards, well-proven methodological frameworks, or accurately described best-practice approaches for the systematic planning of solutions for secondary use of routine medical record data are missing. We propose a conceptual best-practice framework and procedure model for the systematic planning of intelligent reuse of integrated clinical routine data (SPIRIT). SPIRIT was developed based on a broad literature overview and further refined in two case studies with different kinds of clinical routine data, including process-oriented nursing data from a large hospital group and high-volume multimodal clinical data from a neurologic intensive care unit. SPIRIT aims at tailoring secondary use solutions to specific needs of single departments without losing sight of the institution as a whole. It provides a general conceptual best-practice framework consisting of three parts: First, a secondary use strategy for the whole organization is determined. Second, comprehensive analyses are conducted from two different viewpoints to define the requirements regarding a clinical routine data reuse solution at the system level from the data perspective (BOTTOM UP) and at the strategic level from the future users perspective (TOP DOWN). An obligatory clinical context analysis (IN BETWEEN) facilitates refinement, combination, and integration of the different requirements. The third part of SPIRIT is dedicated to implementation, which comprises design and realization of clinical data integration and management as well as data analysis solutions. The SPIRIT framework is intended to be used to systematically plan the intelligent reuse of clinical routine data for multiple purposes, which often was not intended when the

  2. Effects of waveform model systematics on the interpretation of GW150914

    OpenAIRE

    Abbott, B. P.; Abbott, R.; Adhikari, R. X.; Ananyeva, A.; Anderson, S. B.; Appert, S.; Arai, K.; Araya, M. C.; Barayoga, J. C.; Barish, B. C.; Berger, B. K.; Billingsley, G.; Biscans, S; Blackburn, J. K.; Bork, R.

    2017-01-01

    Parameter estimates of GW150914 were obtained using Bayesian inference, based on three semi-analytic waveform models for binary black hole coalescences. These waveform models differ from each other in their treatment of black hole spins, and all three models make some simplifying assumptions, notably to neglect sub-dominant waveform harmonic modes and orbital eccentricity. Furthermore, while the models are calibrated to agree with waveforms obtained by full numerical solutions of Einstein's e...

  3. Effects of waveform model systematics on the interpretation of GW150914

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Abbott, B. P.; Abbott, R.; Abbott, T. D.; Abernathy, M. R.; Acernese, F.; Ackley, K.; Adams, C.; Phythian-Adams, A.T.; Addesso, P.; Adhikari, R. X.; Adya, V. B.; Affeldt, C.; Agathos, M.; Agatsuma, K.; Aggarwal, N.T.; Aguiar, O. D.; Aiello, L.; Ain, A.; Ajith, P.; Allen, B.; Allocca, A.; Altin, P. A.; Ananyeva, A.; Anderson, S. B.; Anderson, W. G.; Appert, S.; Arai, K.; Araya, M. C.; Areeda, J. S.; Arnaud, N.; Arun, K. G.; Ascenzi, S.; Ashton, G.; Ast, M.; Aston, S. M.; Astone, P.; Aufmuth, P.; Aulbert, C.; Avila-Alvarez, A.; Babak, S.; Bacon, P.; Bader, M. K.M.; Baker, P. T.; Baldaccini, F.; Ballardin, G.; Ballmer, S. W.; Barayoga, J. C.; Barclay, S. E.; Barish, B. C.; Barker, R.D.; Barone, F.; Barr, B.; Barsotti, L.; Barsuglia, M.; Barta, D.; Bartlett, J.; Bartos, I.; Bassiri, R.; Basti, A.; Batch, J. C.; Baune, C.; Bavigadda, V.; Bazzan, M.; Beer, C.; Bejger, M.; Belahcene, I.; Belgin, M.; Bell, A. S.; Berger, B. K.; Bergmann, G.; Berry, C. P. L.; Bersanetti, D.; Bertolini, A.; Betzwieser, J.; Bhagwat, S.; Bhandare, R.; Bilenko, I. A.; Billingsley, G.; Billman, C. R.; Birch, M.J.; Birney, R.; Birnholtz, O.; Biscans, S.; Bisht, A.; Bitossi, M.; Biwer, C.; Bizouard, M. A.; Blackburn, J. K.; Blackman, J.; Blair, C. D.; Blair, D. G.; Blair, R. M.; Bloemen, A.L.S.; Bock, O.; Boer, M.; Bogaert, J.G.; Bohe, A.; Bondu, F.; Bonnand, R.; Boom, B. A.; Bork, R.; Boschi, V.; Bose, S.; Bouffanais, Y.; Bozzi, A.; Bradaschia, C.; Brady, P. R.; Braginsky, V. B.; Branchesi, M.; Brau, J. E.; Briant, T.; Brillet, A.; Brinkmann, M.; Brisson, V.; Brockill, P.; Broida, J. E.; Brooks, A. F.; Brown, A.D.; Brown, D.; Brown, N. M.; Brunett, S.; Buchanan, C. C.; Buikema, A.; Bulik, T.; Bulten, H. J.; Buonanno, A.; Buskulic, D.; Buy, C.; Byer, R. L.; Cabero, M.; Cadonati, L.; Cagnoli, G.; Cahillane, C.; Calderón Bustillo, J.; Callister, T. A.; Calloni, E.; Camp, J. B.; Cannon, K. C.; Cao, H.; Cao, J.; Capano, C. D.; Capocasa, E.; Carbognani, F.; Caride, S.; Casanueva Diaz, J.; Casentini, C.; Caudill, S.; Cavaglià, M.; Cavalier, F.; Cavalieri, R.; Cella, G.; Cepeda, C. B.; Cerboni Baiardi, L.; Cerretani, G.; Cesarini, E.; Chamberlin, S. J.; Chan, M.; Chao, D. S.; Charlton, P.; Chassande-Mottin, E.; Cheeseboro, B. D.; Chen, H. Y.; Chen, Y; Cheng, H. -P.; Chincarini, A.; Chiummo, A.; Chmiel, T.; Cho, H. S.; Cho, M.; Chow, J. H.; Christensen, N.; Chu, Qian; Chua, A. J. K.; Chua, S. S. Y.; Chung, E.S.; Ciani, G.; Clara, F.; Clark, J. A.; Cleva, F.; Cocchieri, C.; Coccia, E.; Cohadon, P. -F.; Colla, A.; Collette, C. G.; Cominsky, L.; Constancio, M., Jr.; Conti, L.; Cooper, S. J.; Corbitt, T. R.; Cornish, N.; Corsi, A.; Cortese, S.; Costa, A.C.; Coughlin, M. W.; Coughlin, S. B.; Coulon, J. -P.; Countryman, S. T.; Couvares, P.; Covas, P. B.; Cowan, E. E.; Coward, D. M.; Cowart, M. J.; Coyne, D. C.; Coyne, R.; Creighton, J. D. E.; Creighton, T. D.; Cripe, J.; Crowder, S. G.; Cullen, T. J.; Cumming, A.; Cunningham, Laura; Cuoco, E.; Dal Canton, T.; Danilishin, S. L.; D'Antonio, S.; Danzmann, K.; Dasgupta, A.; Da Silva Costa, C. F.; Dattilo, V.; Dave, I.; Davier, M.; Davies, G. S.; Davis, D.; Daw, E. J.; Day, B.; Day, R.; De, S.; Debra, D.; Debreczeni, G.; Degallaix, J.; De laurentis, M.; Deléglise, S.; Del Pozzo, W.; Denker, T.; Dent, T.; Dergachev, V.A.; Rosa, R.; DeRosa, R. T.; DeSalvo, R.; Devenson, J.; Devine, R. C.; Dhurandhar, S.; Díaz, M. C.; Di Fiore, L.; Giovanni, M. Di; Di Girolamo, T.; Di Lieto, A.; Di Pace, S.; Di Palma, I.; Di Virgilio, A.; Doctor, Z.; Dolique, V.; Donovan, F.; Dooley, K. L.; Doravari, S.; Dorrington, I.; Douglas, R.; Dovale Álvarez, M.; Downes, T. P.; Drago, M.; Drever, R. W. P.; Driggers, J. C.; Du, Z.; Ducrot, M.; Dwyer, S. E.; Edo, T. B.; Edwards, M. C.; Effler, A.; Eggenstein, H. -B.; Ehrens, P.; Eichholz, J.; Eikenberry, S. S.; Eisenstein, R. A.; Essick, R. C.; Etienne, Z.; Etzel, T.; Evans, T. M.; Evans, T. M.; Everett, R.; Factourovich, M.; Fafone, V.; Fair, H.; Fairhurst, S.; Fan, X.M.; Farinon, S.; Farr, B.; Farr, W. M.; Fauchon-Jones, E. J.; Favata, M.; Fays, M.; Fehrmann, H.; Fejer, M. M.; Fernández Galiana, A.; Ferrante, I.; Ferreira, E. C.; Ferrini, F.; Fidecaro, F.; Fiori, I.; Fiorucci, D.; Fisher, R. P.; Flaminio, R.; Fletcher, M; Fong, H.; Forsyth, S. S.; Fournier, J. -D.; Frasca, S.; Frasconi, F.; Frei, Z.; Freise, A.; Frey, R.; Frey, V.; Fries, E. M.; Fritschel, P.; Frolov, V. V.; Fulda, P.; Fyffe, M.; Gabbard, H.; Gadre, B. U.; Gaebel, S. M.; Gair, J. R.; Gammaitoni, L.; Gaonkar, S. G.; Garufi, F.; Gaur, G.; Gayathri, V.; Gehrels, N.; Gemme, G.; Genin, E.; Gennai, A.; George, J.; Gergely, L.; Germain, V.; Ghonge, S.; Ghosh, Abhirup; Ghosh, Archisman; Ghosh, S.; Giaime, J. A.; Giardina, K. D.; Giazotto, A.; Gill, K.P.; Glaefke, A.; Goetz, E.; Goetz, R.; Gondan, L.; González, G.; Gonzalez Castro, J. M.; Gopakumar, A.; Gorodetsky, M. L.; Gossan, S. E.; Lee-Gosselin, M.; Gouaty, R.; Grado, A.; Graef, C.; Granata, M.; Grant, A.; Gras, S.; Gray, C.M.; Greco, G.; Green, A. C.; Groot, P.; Grote, H.; Grunewald, S.; Guidi, G. M.; Guo, X.; Gupta, A.; Gupta, M. K.; Gushwa, K. E.; Gustafson, E. K.; Gustafson, R.; Hacker, J. J.; Buffoni-Hall, R.; Hall, E. D.; Hammond, G.L.; Haney, M.; Hanke, M. M.; Hanks, J.; Hanna, C.; Hannam, M. D.; Hanson, P.J.; Hardwick, T.; Harms, J.; Harry, G. M.; Harry, I. W.; Hart, M. J.; Hartman, M. T.; Haster, C. -J.; Haughian, K.; Healy, J.; Heidmann, A.; Heintze, M. C.; Heitmann, H.; Hello, P.; Hemming, G.; Hendry, M.; Heng, I. S.; Hennig, J.; Henry, J.A.; Heptonstall, A. W.; Heurs, M.; Hild, S.; Hoak, D.; Hofman, D.; Holt, K.; Holz, D. E.; Hopkins, P.; Hough, J.; Houston, E. A.; Howell, E. J.; Hu, Y. M.; Huerta, E. A.; Huet, D.; Hughey, B.; Husa, S.; Huttner, S. H.; Huynh-Dinh, T.; Indik, N.; Ingram, D. R.; Inta, R.; Isa, H. N.; Isac, J. -M.; Isi, M.; Isogai, T.; Iyer, B. R.; Izumi, K.; Jacqmin, T.; Jani, K.; Jaranowski, P.; Jawahar, S.; Jiménez-Forteza, F.; Johnson, W.; Jones, I.D.; Jones, R.; Jonker, R. J.G.; Ju, L.; Junker, J.; Kalaghatgi, C. V.; Kalogera, V.; Kandhasamy, S.; Kang, G.H.; Kanner, J. B.; Karki, S.; Karvinen, K. S.; Kasprzack, M.; Katsavounidis, E.; Katzman, W.; Kaufer, S.; Kaur, T.; Kawabe, K.; Kéfélian, F.; Keitel, D.; Kelley, D. B.; Kennedy, R.E.; Key, J. S.; Khalili, F. Y.; Khan, I.; Khan., S.; Khan, Z.; Khazanov, E. A.; Kijbunchoo, N.; Kim, Chunglee; Kim, J. C.; Kim, Whansun; Kim, W.; Kim, Y.M.; Kimbrell, S. J.; King, E. J.; King, P. J.; Kirchhoff, R.; Kissel, J. S.; Klein, B.; Kleybolte, L.; Klimenko, S.; Koch, P.; Koehlenbeck, S. M.; Koley, S.; Kondrashov, V.; Kontos, A.; Korobko, M.; Korth, W. Z.; Kowalska, I.; Kozak, D. B.; Krämer, C.; Kringel, V.; Krishnan, B.; Królak, A.; Kuehn, G.; Kumar, P.; Kumar, R.; Kuo, L.; Kutynia, A.; Lackey, B. D.; Landry, M.; Lang, R. N.; Lange, J.; Lantz, B.; Lanza, R. K.; Lartaux-Vollard, A.; Lasky, P. D.; Laxen, M.; Lazzarini, A.; Lazzaro, C.; Leaci, P.; Leavey, S.; Lebigot, E. O.; Lee, C.H.; Lee, K.H.; Lee, M.H.; Lee, K.; Lehmann, J.; Lenon, A.; Leonardi, M.; Leong, J. R.; Leroy, N.; Letendre, N.; Levin, Y.; Li, T. G.F.; Libson, A.; Littenberg, T. B.; Liu, J.; Lockerbie, N. A.; Lombardi, A. L.; London, L. T.; Lord, J. E.; Lorenzini, M.; Loriette, V.; Lormand, M.; Losurdo, G.; Lough, J. D.; Lovelace, G.; Lück, H.; Lundgren, A. P.; Lynch, R.; Ma, Y.; Macfoy, S.; Machenschalk, B.; MacInnis, M.; Macleod, D. M.; Magaña-Sandoval, F.; Majorana, E.; Maksimovic, I.; Malvezzi, V.; Man, N.; Mandic, V.; Mangano, V.; Mansell, G. L.; Manske, M.; Mantovani, M.; Marchesoni, F.; Marion, F.; Márka, S.; Márka, Z.; Markosyan, A. S.; Maros, E.; Martelli, F.; Martellini, L.; Martin, I. W.; Martynov, D. V.; Mason, K.; Masserot, A.; Massinger, T. J.; Masso-Reid, M.; Mastrogiovanni, S.; Matichard, F.; Matone, L.; Mavalvala, N.; Mazumder, N.; McCarthy, R.; McClelland, D. E.; McCormick, S.; McGrath Hoareau, C.; McGuire, S. C.; McIntyre, G.; McIver, J.; McManus, D. J.; McRae, T.; McWilliams, S. T.; Meacher, D.; Meadors, G. D.; Meidam, J.; Melatos, A.; Mendell, G.; Mendoza-Gandara, D.; Mercer, R. A.; Merilh, E. L.; Merzougui, M.; Meshkov, S.; Messenger, C.; Messick, C.; Metzdorff, R.; Meyers, P. M.; Mezzani, F.; Miao, H.; Michel, C.; Middleton, H.; Mikhailov, E. E.; Milano, L.; Miller, A. L.; Miller, A. L.; Miller, B.; Miller, J.; Millhouse, M.; Minenkov, Y.; Ming, J.; Mirshekari, S.; Mishra, C.; Mitra, S.; Mitrofanov, V. P.; Mitselmakher, G.; Mittleman, R.; Moggi, A.; Mohan, M.; Mohapatra, S. R. P.; Montani, M.; Moore, B.C.; Moore, Brian C J; Moraru, D.; Gutierrez Moreno, M.; Morriss, S. R.; Mours, B.; Mow-Lowry, C. M.; Mueller, G.; Muir, A. W.; Mukherjee, Arunava; Mukherjee, S.D.; Mukherjee, S.; Mukund, N.; Mullavey, A.; Munch, J.; Muniz, E. A. M.; Murray, P.G.; Mytidis, A.; Napier, K.; Nardecchia, I.; Naticchioni, L.; Nelemans, G.; Nelson, T. J. N.; Gutierrez-Neri, M.; Nery, M.; Neunzert, A.; Newport, J. M.; Newton-Howes, G.; Nguyen, T. T.; Nielsen, A. B.; Nissanke, S.; Nitz, A.; Noack, A.; Nocera, F.; Nolting, D.; Normandin, M. E. N.; Nuttall, L. K.; Oberling, J.; Ochsner, E.; Oelker, E.; Ogin, G. H.; Oh, J.; Oh, S. H.; Ohme, F.; Oliver, M. B.; Oppermann, P.; Oram, Richard J.; O'Reilly, B.; O'Shaughnessy, R.; Ottaway, D. J.; Overmier, H.; Owen, B. J.; Pace, A. E.; Page, J.; Pai, A.; Pai, S. A.; Palamos, J. R.; Palashov, O.; Palomba, C.; Pal-Singh, A.; Pan, H.; Pankow, C.; Pannarale, F.; Pant, B. C.; Paoletti, F.; Paoli, A.; Papa, M. A.; Paris, H. R.; Parker, W.S; Pascucci, D.; Pasqualetti, A.; Passaquieti, R.; Passuello, D.; Patricelli, B.; Pearlstone, B. L.; Pedraza, M.; Pedurand, R.; Pekowsky, L.; Pele, A.; Penn, S.; Castro-Perez, J.; Perreca, A.; Perri, L. M.; Pfeiffer, H. P.; Phelps, M.; Piccinni, O. J.; Pichot, M.; Piergiovanni, F.; Pierro, V.; Pillant, G.; Pinard, L.; Pinto, I. M.; Pitkin, M.; Poe, M.; Poggiani, R.; Popolizio, P.; Post, A.; Powell, J.; Prasad, J.; Pratt, J. W. W.; Predoi, V.; Prestegard, T.; Prijatelj, M.; Principe, M.; Privitera, S.; Prodi, G. A.; Prokhorov, L. G.; Puncken, O.; Punturo, M.; Puppo, P.; Pürrer, M.; Qi, H.; Qin, J.; Qiu, S.; Quetschke, V.; Quintero, E. A.; Quitzow-James, R.; Raab, F. J.; Rabeling, D. S.; Radkins, H.; Raffai, P.; Raja, S.; Rajan, C.; Rakhmanov, M.; Rapagnani, P.; Raymond, V.; Razzano, M.; Re, V.; Read, J.; Regimbau, T.; Rei, L.; Reid, S.; Reitze, D. H.; Rew, H.; Reyes, S. D.; Rhoades, E.; Ricci, F.; Riles, K.; Rizzo, D.M.; Robertson, N. A.; Robie, R.; Robinet, F.; Rocchi, A.; Rolland, L.; Rollins, J. G.; Roma, V. J.; Romano, J. D.; Romano, R.; Romie, J. H.; Rosińska, D.; Rowan, S.; Rüdiger, A.; Ruggi, P.; Ryan, K.A.; Sachdev, Perminder S; Sadecki, T.; Sadeghian, L.; Sakellariadou, M.; Salconi, L.; Saleem, M.; Salemi, F.; Samajdar, A.; Sammut, L.; Sampson, L. M.; Sanchez, E. J.; Sandberg, V.; Sanders, J. R.; Sassolas, B.; Sathyaprakash, B. S.; Saulson, P. R.; Sauter, O.; Savage, R. L.; Sawadsky, A.; Schale, P.; Scheuer, J.; Schmidt, E.; Schmidt, J; Schmidt, P.; Schnabel, R.B.; Schofield, R. M. S.; Schönbeck, A.; Schreiber, K.E.C.; Schuette, D.; Schutz, B. F.; Schwalbe, S. G.; Scott, J.; Scott, M.S.; Sellers, D.; Sengupta, A. S.; Sentenac, D.; Sequino, V.; Sergeev, A.; Setyawati, Y.; Shaddock, D. A.; Shaffer, T. J.; Shahriar, M. S.; Shapiro, B.; Shawhan, P.; Sheperd, A.; Shoemaker, D. H.; Shoemaker, D. M.; Siellez, K.; Siemens, X.; Sieniawska, M.; Sigg, D.; Silva, António Dias da; Singer, A; Singer, L. P.; Singh, A.; Singh, R.; Singhal, A.; Sintes, A. M.; Slagmolen, B. J. J.; Smith, B.; Smith, R. J. E.; Smith, R. J. E.; Son, E. J.; Sorazu, B.; Sorrentino, F.; Souradeep, T.; Spencer, A. P.; Srivastava, A. K.; Staley, A.; Steinke, M.; Steinlechner, J.; Steinlechner, S.; Steinmeyer, D.; Stephens, B. C.; Stevenson-Moore, P.; Stone, J.R.; Strain, K. A.; Straniero, N.; Stratta, G.; Strigin, S. E.; Sturani, R.; Stuver, A. L.; Summerscales, T. Z.; Sun, L.; Sunil, S.; Sutton, P. J.; Swinkels, B. L.; Szczepańczyk, M. J.; Tacca, M.D.; Talukder, D.; Tanner, D. B.; Tápai, M.; Taracchini, A.; Taylor, W.R.; Theeg, T.; Thomas, E. G.; Thomas, M.; Thomas, P.; Thorne, K. A.; Thrane, E.; Tippens, T.; Tiwari, S.; Tiwari, V.; Tokmakov, K. V.; Toland, K.; Tomlinson, C.; Tonelli, M.; Tornasi, Z.; Torrie, C. I.; Töyrä, D.; Travasso, F.; Traylor, G.; Trifir, D.; Trinastic, J.; Tringali, M. C.; Trozzo, L.; Tse, M.; Tso, R.; Turconi, M.; Tuyenbayev, D.; Ugolini, D.; Unnikrishnan, C. S.; Urban, A. L.; Usman, S. A.; Vahlbruch, H.; Vajente, G.; Valdes, G.; Van Bakel, N.; Van Beuzekom, Martin; Van Den Brand, J. F.J.; Van Den Broeck, C.F.F.; Vander-Hyde, D. C.; van der Schaaf, L.; van Heijningen, J. V.; van Veggel, A. A.; Vardaro, M.; Varma, V.; Vass, S.; Vasúth, M.; Vecchio, A.; Vedovato, G.; Veitch, J.; Veitch, P.J.; Venkateswara, K.; Venugopalan, G.; Verkindt, D.; Vetrano, F.; Viceré, A.; Viets, A. D.; Vinciguerra, S.; Vine, D. J.; Vinet, J. -Y.; Vitale, S.; Vo, T.; Vocca, H.; Vorvick, C.; Voss, D. V.; Vousden, W. D.; Vyatchanin, S. P.; Wade, A. R.; Wade, L. E.; Wade, MT; Walker, M.; Wallace, L.; Walsh, S.; Wang, G.; Wang, H.; Wang, M.; Wang, Y.; Ward, R. L.; Warner, J.; Was, M.; Watchi, J.; Weaver, B.; Wei, L. -W.; Weinert, M.; Weinstein, A. J.; Weiss, R.; Wen, L.M.; Weßels, P.; Westphal, T.; Wette, K.; Whelan, J. T.; Whiting, B. F.; Whittle, C.; Williams, D.; Williams, D.R.; Williamson, A. R.; Willis, J. L.; Willke, B.; Wimmer, M. H.; Winkler, W.; Wipf, C. C.; Wittel, H.; Woan, G.; Woehler, J.; Worden, J.; Wright, J.L.; Wu, D.S.; Wu, G.; Yam, W.; Yamamoto, H.; Yancey, C. C.; Yap, M. J.; Yu, Hang; Yu, Haocun; Yvert, M.; Zadrożny, A.; Zangrando, L.; Zanolin, M.; Zendri, J. -P.; Zevin, M.; Zhang, L.; Zhang, M.; Zhang, T.; Zhang, Y.; Zhao, C.; Zhou, M.; Zhou, Z.; Zhu, S.J.; Zhu, X. J.; Zucker, M. E.; Zweizig, J.; Boyle, M.; Chu, I.W.T.; Hemberger, D.; Hinder, I.; Kidder, L. E.; Ossokine, S.; Scheel, M.; Szilagyi, B.; Teukolsky, S.; Vano-Vinuales, A.

    2017-01-01

    Parameter estimates of GW150914 were obtained using Bayesian inference, based on three semi-analytic waveform models for binary black hole coalescences. These waveform models differ from each other in their treatment of black hole spins, and all three models make some simplifying assumptions,

  4. Correction of systematic bias in ultrasound dating in studies of small-for-gestational-age birth: an example from the Iowa Health in Pregnancy Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harland, Karisa K; Saftlas, Audrey F; Wallis, Anne B; Yankowitz, Jerome; Triche, Elizabeth W; Zimmerman, M Bridget

    2012-09-01

    The authors examined whether early ultrasound dating (≤20 weeks) of gestational age (GA) in small-for-gestational-age (SGA) fetuses may underestimate gestational duration and therefore the incidence of SGA birth. Within a population-based case-control study (May 2002-June 2005) of Iowa SGA births and preterm deliveries identified from birth records (n = 2,709), the authors illustrate a novel methodological approach with which to assess and correct for systematic underestimation of GA by early ultrasound in women with suspected SGA fetuses. After restricting the analysis to subjects with first-trimester prenatal care, a nonmissing date of the last menstrual period (LMP), and early ultrasound (n = 1,135), SGA subjects' ultrasound GA was 5.5 days less than their LMP GA, on average. Multivariable linear regression was conducted to determine the extent to which ultrasound GA predicted LMP dating and to correct for systematic misclassification that results after applying standard guidelines to adjudicate differences in these measures. In the unadjusted model, SGA subjects required a correction of +1.5 weeks to the ultrasound estimate. With adjustment for maternal age, smoking, and first-trimester vaginal bleeding, standard guidelines for adjudicating differences in ultrasound and LMP dating underestimated SGA birth by 12.9% and overestimated preterm delivery by 8.7%. This methodological approach can be applied by researchers using different study populations in similar research contexts.

  5. THE SYSTEMATICS OF STRONG LENS MODELING QUANTIFIED: THE EFFECTS OF CONSTRAINT SELECTION AND REDSHIFT INFORMATION ON MAGNIFICATION, MASS, AND MULTIPLE IMAGE PREDICTABILITY

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johnson, Traci L.; Sharon, Keren, E-mail: tljohn@umich.edu [University of Michigan, Department of Astronomy, 1085 South University Avenue, Ann Arbor, MI 48109-1107 (United States)

    2016-11-20

    Until now, systematic errors in strong gravitational lens modeling have been acknowledged but have never been fully quantified. Here, we launch an investigation into the systematics induced by constraint selection. We model the simulated cluster Ares 362 times using random selections of image systems with and without spectroscopic redshifts and quantify the systematics using several diagnostics: image predictability, accuracy of model-predicted redshifts, enclosed mass, and magnification. We find that for models with >15 image systems, the image plane rms does not decrease significantly when more systems are added; however, the rms values quoted in the literature may be misleading as to the ability of a model to predict new multiple images. The mass is well constrained near the Einstein radius in all cases, and systematic error drops to <2% for models using >10 image systems. Magnification errors are smallest along the straight portions of the critical curve, and the value of the magnification is systematically lower near curved portions. For >15 systems, the systematic error on magnification is ∼2%. We report no trend in magnification error with the fraction of spectroscopic image systems when selecting constraints at random; however, when using the same selection of constraints, increasing this fraction up to ∼0.5 will increase model accuracy. The results suggest that the selection of constraints, rather than quantity alone, determines the accuracy of the magnification. We note that spectroscopic follow-up of at least a few image systems is crucial because models without any spectroscopic redshifts are inaccurate across all of our diagnostics.

  6. Evidence used in model-based economic evaluations for evaluating pharmacogenetic and pharmacogenomic tests: a systematic review protocol.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peters, Jaime L; Cooper, Chris; Buchanan, James

    2015-11-11

    Decision models can be used to conduct economic evaluations of new pharmacogenetic and pharmacogenomic tests to ensure they offer value for money to healthcare systems. These models require a great deal of evidence, yet research suggests the evidence used is diverse and of uncertain quality. By conducting a systematic review, we aim to investigate the test-related evidence used to inform decision models developed for the economic evaluation of genetic tests. We will search electronic databases including MEDLINE, EMBASE and NHS EEDs to identify model-based economic evaluations of pharmacogenetic and pharmacogenomic tests. The search will not be limited by language or date. Title and abstract screening will be conducted independently by 2 reviewers, with screening of full texts and data extraction conducted by 1 reviewer, and checked by another. Characteristics of the decision problem, the decision model and the test evidence used to inform the model will be extracted. Specifically, we will identify the reported evidence sources for the test-related evidence used, describe the study design and how the evidence was identified. A checklist developed specifically for decision analytic models will be used to critically appraise the models described in these studies. Variations in the test evidence used in the decision models will be explored across the included studies, and we will identify gaps in the evidence in terms of both quantity and quality. The findings of this work will be disseminated via a peer-reviewed journal publication and at national and international conferences. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

  7. Neuroprotective properties of curcumin in toxin-base animal models of Parkinson's disease: a systematic experiment literatures review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xin-Shi; Zhang, Zeng-Rui; Zhang, Man-Man; Sun, Miao-Xuan; Wang, Wen-Wen; Xie, Cheng-Long

    2017-08-17

    Curcumin (diferuloylmethane), a polyphenol extracted from the plant Curcuma longa, is widely used in Southeast Asia, China and India in food preparation and for medicinal purposes. Meanwhile, the neuroprotective actions of curcumin have been documented for experimental therapy in Parkinson's disease (PD). In this study, we used a systematic review to comprehensively assess the efficacy of curcumin in experimental PD. Using electronic and manual search for the literatures, we identified studies describing the efficacy of curcumin in animal models of PD. We identified 13 studies with a total of 298 animals describing the efficacy of curcumin in animal models of PD. The methodological quality of all preclinical trials is ranged from 2 to 5. The majority of the experiment studies demonstrated that curcumin was more significantly neuroprotection effective than control groups for treating PD. Among them, five studies indicated that curcumin had an anti-inflammatory effect in the PD animal models (p curcumin, by which it protected substantia nigra neurons and improved striatal dopamine levels. Furthermore, two studies in this review displayed that curcumin treatment was also effective in reducing neuronal apoptosis and improving functional outcome in animal models of PD. Most of the preclinical studies demonstrated the positive findings while one study reported that curcumin had no beneficial effects against Mn-induced disruption of hippocampal metal and neurotransmitter homeostasis. The results demonstrated a marked efficacy of curcumin in experimental model of PD, suggesting curcumin probably a candidate neuroprotective drug for human PD patients.

  8. Population-level impact, herd immunity, and elimination after human papillomavirus vaccination: a systematic review and meta-analysis of predictions from transmission-dynamic models.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brisson, Marc; Bénard, Élodie; Drolet, Mélanie; Bogaards, Johannes A; Baussano, Iacopo; Vänskä, Simopekka; Jit, Mark; Boily, Marie-Claude; Smith, Megan A; Berkhof, Johannes; Canfell, Karen; Chesson, Harrell W; Burger, Emily A; Choi, Yoon H; De Blasio, Birgitte Freiesleben; De Vlas, Sake J; Guzzetta, Giorgio; Hontelez, Jan A C; Horn, Johannes; Jepsen, Martin R; Kim, Jane J; Lazzarato, Fulvio; Matthijsse, Suzette M; Mikolajczyk, Rafael; Pavelyev, Andrew; Pillsbury, Matthew; Shafer, Leigh Anne; Tully, Stephen P; Turner, Hugo C; Usher, Cara; Walsh, Cathal

    2016-01-01

    Modelling studies have been widely used to inform human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination policy decisions; however, many models exist and it is not known whether they produce consistent predictions of population-level effectiveness and herd effects. We did a systematic review and meta-analysis of

  9. Body fat in children measured by DXA, air-displacement plethysmography, TBW and multicomponent models: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zanini, Roberta de Vargas; Santos, Iná S; Chrestani, Maria Aurora D; Gigante, Denise Petrucci

    2015-07-01

    To conduct a systematic literature review to identify studies that used indirect methods to assess body fat in healthy children. A systematic review was conducted according to the PRISMA guidelines. We conducted a search in the MEDLINE/PubMed, SciELO and Google Scholar databases. Studies in healthy children aged 0-9 years were eligible for inclusion. Studies were kept or excluded from the review according to eligibility criteria defined a priori. Two independent reviewers conducted all steps in the study selection. Initially, 11,246 articles were retrieved, with 3,593 duplicates. After applying the eligibility criteria, 22 articles were selected for review. The methodology of each study was analyzed by each reviewer individually. The indirect methods used to assess body fat in children included dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) (14 articles), air-displacement plethysmography (five articles), multicomponent models (two articles), and total body water (one article). Most studies reported absolute (in kilograms) or relative (percentage) body fat measures. Only seven studies reported the fat mass index (FMI) (kg/m(2)). DXA was the indirect method most frequently used to assess body fat in healthy children. FMI was seldom reported.

  10. On the climate model simulation of Indian monsoon low pressure systems and the effect of remote disturbances and systematic biases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levine, Richard C.; Martin, Gill M.

    2018-06-01

    Monsoon low pressure systems (LPS) are synoptic-scale systems forming over the Indian monsoon trough region, contributing substantially to seasonal mean summer monsoon rainfall there. Many current global climate models (GCMs), including the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM), show deficient rainfall in this region, much of which has previously been attributed to remote systematic biases such as excessive equatorial Indian Ocean (EIO) convection, while also substantially under-representing LPS and associated rainfall as they travel westwards across India. Here the sources and sensitivities of LPS to local, remote and short-timescale forcing are examined, in order to understand the poor representation in GCMs. An LPS tracking method is presented using TRACK feature tracking software for comparison between re-analysis data-sets, MetUM GCM and regional climate model (RCM) simulations. RCM simulations, at similar horizontal resolution to the GCM and forced with re-analysis data at the lateral boundaries, are carried out with different domains to examine the effects of remote biases. The results suggest that remote biases contribute significantly to the poor simulation of LPS in the GCM. As these remote systematic biases are common amongst many current GCMs, it is likely that GCMs are intrinsically capable of representing LPS, even at relatively low resolution. The main problem areas are time-mean excessive EIO convection and poor representation of precursor disturbances transmitted from the Western Pacific. The important contribution of the latter is established using RCM simulations forced by climatological 6-hourly lateral boundary conditions, which also highlight the role of LPS in moving rainfall from steep orography towards Central India.

  11. A trans-Amazonian screening of mtDNA reveals deep intraspecific divergence in forest birds and suggests a vast underestimation of species diversity.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Borja Milá

    Full Text Available The Amazonian avifauna remains severely understudied relative to that of the temperate zone, and its species richness is thought to be underestimated by current taxonomy. Recent molecular systematic studies using mtDNA sequence reveal that traditionally accepted species-level taxa often conceal genetically divergent subspecific lineages found to represent new species upon close taxonomic scrutiny, suggesting that intraspecific mtDNA variation could be useful in species discovery. Surveys of mtDNA variation in Holarctic species have revealed patterns of variation that are largely congruent with species boundaries. However, little information exists on intraspecific divergence in most Amazonian species. Here we screen intraspecific mtDNA genetic variation in 41 Amazonian forest understory species belonging to 36 genera and 17 families in 6 orders, using 758 individual samples from Ecuador and French Guiana. For 13 of these species, we also analyzed trans-Andean populations from the Ecuadorian Chocó. A consistent pattern of deep intraspecific divergence among trans-Amazonian haplogroups was found for 33 of the 41 taxa, and genetic differentiation and genetic diversity among them was highly variable, suggesting a complex range of evolutionary histories. Mean sequence divergence within families was the same as that found in North American birds (13%, yet mean intraspecific divergence in Neotropical species was an order of magnitude larger (2.13% vs. 0.23%, with mean distance between intraspecific lineages reaching 3.56%. We found no clear relationship between genetic distances and differentiation in plumage color. Our results identify numerous genetically and phenotypically divergent lineages which may result in new species-level designations upon closer taxonomic scrutiny and thorough sampling, although lineages in the tropical region could be older than those in the temperate zone without necessarily representing separate species. In

  12. Global CO2 flux inversions from remote-sensing data with systematic errors using hierarchical statistical models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zammit-Mangion, Andrew; Stavert, Ann; Rigby, Matthew; Ganesan, Anita; Rayner, Peter; Cressie, Noel

    2017-04-01

    The Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) satellite was launched on 2 July 2014, and it has been a source of atmospheric CO2 data since September 2014. The OCO-2 dataset contains a number of variables, but the one of most interest for flux inversion has been the column-averaged dry-air mole fraction (in units of ppm). These global level-2 data offer the possibility of inferring CO2 fluxes at Earth's surface and tracking those fluxes over time. However, as well as having a component of random error, the OCO-2 data have a component of systematic error that is dependent on the instrument's mode, namely land nadir, land glint, and ocean glint. Our statistical approach to CO2-flux inversion starts with constructing a statistical model for the random and systematic errors with parameters that can be estimated from the OCO-2 data and possibly in situ sources from flasks, towers, and the Total Column Carbon Observing Network (TCCON). Dimension reduction of the flux field is achieved through the use of physical basis functions, while temporal evolution of the flux is captured by modelling the basis-function coefficients as a vector autoregressive process. For computational efficiency, flux inversion uses only three months of sensitivities of mole fraction to changes in flux, computed using MOZART; any residual variation is captured through the modelling of a stochastic process that varies smoothly as a function of latitude. The second stage of our statistical approach is to simulate from the posterior distribution of the basis-function coefficients and all unknown parameters given the data using a fully Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm. Estimates and posterior variances of the flux field can then be obtained straightforwardly from this distribution. Our statistical approach is different than others, as it simultaneously makes inference (and quantifies uncertainty) on both the error components' parameters and the CO2 fluxes. We compare it to more classical

  13. Efficacy and safety of regenerative cell therapy for pulmonary arterial hypertension in animal models: a preclinical systematic review protocol.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suen, Colin M; Zhai, Alex; Lalu, Manoj M; Welsh, Christopher; Levac, Brendan M; Fergusson, Dean; McIntyre, Lauralyn; Stewart, Duncan J

    2016-05-25

    Pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) is a rare disease (15 cases per million) that is characterized by widespread loss of the pulmonary microcirculation and elevated pulmonary vascular resistance leading to pathological right ventricular remodeling and ultimately right heart failure. Regenerative cell therapies (i.e., therapies involving cells with stem or progenitor-like properties) could potentially restore the effective lung microcirculation and provide a curative therapy for PAH. Preclinical evidence suggests that regenerative cell therapy using endothelial progenitor cells or mesenchymal stem cells may be beneficial in the treatment of PAH. These findings have led to the completion of a small number of human clinical trials, albeit with modest effect compared to animal studies. The objective of this systematic review is to compare the efficacy and safety of regenerative cell therapies in preclinical models of PAH as well as assess study quality to inform future clinical studies. We will include preclinical studies of PAH in which a regenerative cell type was administered and outcomes compared to a disease control. The primary outcome will be pulmonary hemodynamics as assessed by measurement of right ventricular systolic pressure and/or mean pulmonary arterial pressure. Secondary outcomes will include mortality, survival, right ventricular remodeling, pulmonary vascular resistance, cardiac output, cardiac index, pulmonary acceleration time, tricuspid annular systolic excursion, and right ventricular wall thickness. Electronic searches of MEDLINE and EMBASE databases will be constructed and reviewed by the Peer Review of Electronic Search Strategies (PRESS) process. Search results will be screened independently in duplicate. Data from eligible studies will be extracted, pooled, and analyzed using random effects models. Risk of bias will be assessed using the SYstematic Review Centre for Laboratory animal Experimentation (SYRCLE) risk of bias tool, and

  14. Systematic validation of non-equilibrium thermochemical models using Bayesian inference

    KAUST Repository

    Miki, Kenji

    2015-10-01

    © 2015 Elsevier Inc. The validation process proposed by Babuška et al. [1] is applied to thermochemical models describing post-shock flow conditions. In this validation approach, experimental data is involved only in the calibration of the models, and the decision process is based on quantities of interest (QoIs) predicted on scenarios that are not necessarily amenable experimentally. Moreover, uncertainties present in the experimental data, as well as those resulting from an incomplete physical model description, are propagated to the QoIs. We investigate four commonly used thermochemical models: a one-temperature model (which assumes thermal equilibrium among all inner modes), and two-temperature models developed by Macheret et al. [2], Marrone and Treanor [3], and Park [4]. Up to 16 uncertain parameters are estimated using Bayesian updating based on the latest absolute volumetric radiance data collected at the Electric Arc Shock Tube (EAST) installed inside the NASA Ames Research Center. Following the solution of the inverse problems, the forward problems are solved in order to predict the radiative heat flux, QoI, and examine the validity of these models. Our results show that all four models are invalid, but for different reasons: the one-temperature model simply fails to reproduce the data while the two-temperature models exhibit unacceptably large uncertainties in the QoI predictions.

  15. Recent development of risk-prediction models for incident hypertension: An updated systematic review.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dongdong Sun

    Full Text Available Hypertension is a leading global health threat and a major cardiovascular disease. Since clinical interventions are effective in delaying the disease progression from prehypertension to hypertension, diagnostic prediction models to identify patient populations at high risk for hypertension are imperative.Both PubMed and Embase databases were searched for eligible reports of either prediction models or risk scores of hypertension. The study data were collected, including risk factors, statistic methods, characteristics of study design and participants, performance measurement, etc.From the searched literature, 26 studies reporting 48 prediction models were selected. Among them, 20 reports studied the established models using traditional risk factors, such as body mass index (BMI, age, smoking, blood pressure (BP level, parental history of hypertension, and biochemical factors, whereas 6 reports used genetic risk score (GRS as the prediction factor. AUC ranged from 0.64 to 0.97, and C-statistic ranged from 60% to 90%.The traditional models are still the predominant risk prediction models for hypertension, but recently, more models have begun to incorporate genetic factors as part of their model predictors. However, these genetic predictors need to be well selected. The current reported models have acceptable to good discrimination and calibration ability, but whether the models can be applied in clinical practice still needs more validation and adjustment.

  16. Decision-model estimation of the age-specific disability weight for schistosomiasis japonica: a systematic review of the literature.

    OpenAIRE

    Julia L Finkelstein; Mark D Schleinitz; Hélène Carabin; Stephen T McGarvey

    2008-01-01

    Schistosomiasis is among the most prevalent parasitic infections worldwide. However, current Global Burden of Disease (GBD) disability-adjusted life year estimates indicate that its population-level impact is negligible. Recent studies suggest that GBD methodologies may significantly underestimate the burden of parasitic diseases, including schistosomiasis. Furthermore, strain-specific disability weights have not been established for schistosomiasis, and the magnitude of human disease burden ...

  17. Systematic construction of kinetic models from genome-scale metabolic networks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natalie J Stanford

    Full Text Available The quantitative effects of environmental and genetic perturbations on metabolism can be studied in silico using kinetic models. We present a strategy for large-scale model construction based on a logical layering of data such as reaction fluxes, metabolite concentrations, and kinetic constants. The resulting models contain realistic standard rate laws and plausible parameters, adhere to the laws of thermodynamics, and reproduce a predefined steady state. These features have not been simultaneously achieved by previous workflows. We demonstrate the advantages and limitations of the workflow by translating the yeast consensus metabolic network into a kinetic model. Despite crudely selected data, the model shows realistic control behaviour, a stable dynamic, and realistic response to perturbations in extracellular glucose concentrations. The paper concludes by outlining how new data can continuously be fed into the workflow and how iterative model building can assist in directing experiments.

  18. Systematic Construction of Kinetic Models from Genome-Scale Metabolic Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smallbone, Kieran; Klipp, Edda; Mendes, Pedro; Liebermeister, Wolfram

    2013-01-01

    The quantitative effects of environmental and genetic perturbations on metabolism can be studied in silico using kinetic models. We present a strategy for large-scale model construction based on a logical layering of data such as reaction fluxes, metabolite concentrations, and kinetic constants. The resulting models contain realistic standard rate laws and plausible parameters, adhere to the laws of thermodynamics, and reproduce a predefined steady state. These features have not been simultaneously achieved by previous workflows. We demonstrate the advantages and limitations of the workflow by translating the yeast consensus metabolic network into a kinetic model. Despite crudely selected data, the model shows realistic control behaviour, a stable dynamic, and realistic response to perturbations in extracellular glucose concentrations. The paper concludes by outlining how new data can continuously be fed into the workflow and how iterative model building can assist in directing experiments. PMID:24324546

  19. Animal models of prenatal immune challenge and their contribution to the study of schizophrenia: a systematic review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D.S. Macêdo

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Prenatal immune challenge (PIC in pregnant rodents produces offspring with abnormalities in behavior, histology, and gene expression that are reminiscent of schizophrenia and autism. Based on this, the goal of this article was to review the main contributions of PIC models, especially the one using the viral-mimetic particle polyriboinosinic-polyribocytidylic acid (poly-I:C, to the understanding of the etiology, biological basis and treatment of schizophrenia. This systematic review consisted of a search of available web databases (PubMed, SciELO, LILACS, PsycINFO, and ISI Web of Knowledge for original studies published in the last 10 years (May 2001 to October 2011 concerning animal models of PIC, focusing on those using poly-I:C. The results showed that the PIC model with poly-I:C is able to mimic the prodrome and both the positive and negative/cognitive dimensions of schizophrenia, depending on the specific gestation time window of the immune challenge. The model resembles the neurobiology and etiology of schizophrenia and has good predictive value. In conclusion, this model is a robust tool for the identification of novel molecular targets during prenatal life, adolescence and adulthood that might contribute to the development of preventive and/or treatment strategies (targeting specific symptoms, i.e., positive or negative/cognitive for this devastating mental disorder, also presenting biosafety as compared to viral infection models. One limitation of this model is the incapacity to model the full spectrum of immune responses normally induced by viral exposure.

  20. College Students' Underestimation of Blood Alcohol Concentration from Hypothetical Consumption of Supersized Alcopops: Results from a Cluster-Randomized Classroom Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rossheim, Matthew E; Thombs, Dennis L; Krall, Jenna R; Jernigan, David H

    2018-05-30

    Supersized alcopops are a class of single-serving beverages popular among underage drinkers. These products contain large quantities of alcohol. This study examines the extent to which young adults recognize how intoxicated they would become from consuming these products. The study sample included 309 undergraduates who had consumed alcohol within the past year. Thirty-two sections of a college English course were randomized to 1 of 2 survey conditions, based on hypothetical consumption of supersized alcopops or beer of comparable liquid volume. Students were provided an empty can of 1 of the 2 beverages to help them answer the survey questions. Equation-calculated blood alcohol concentrations (BACs)-based on body weight and sex-were compared to the students' self-estimated BACs for consuming 1, 2, and 3 cans of the beverage provided to them. In adjusted regression models, students randomized to the supersized alcopop group greatly underestimated their BAC, whereas students randomized to the beer group overestimated it. The supersized alcopop group underestimated their BAC by 0.04 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.034, 0.053), 0.09 (95% CI: 0.067, 0.107), and 0.13 g/dl (95% CI: 0.097, 0.163) compared to the beer group. When asked how much alcohol they could consume before it would be unsafe to drive, students in the supersized alcopop group had 7 times the odds of estimating consumption that would generate a calculated BAC of at least 0.08 g/dl, compared to those making estimates based on beer consumption (95% CI: 3.734, 13.025). Students underestimated the intoxication they would experience from consuming supersized alcopops. Revised product warning labels are urgently needed to clearly identify the number of standard drinks contained in a supersized alcopop can. Moreover, regulations are needed to limit alcohol content of single-serving products. Copyright © 2018 by the Research Society on Alcoholism.

  1. A systematic approach to the modelling of measurements for uncertainty evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sommer, K D; Weckenmann, A; Siebert, B R L

    2005-01-01

    The evaluation of measurement uncertainty is based on both, the knowledge about the measuring process and the quantities which influence the measurement result. The knowledge about the measuring process is represented by the model equation which expresses the interrelation between the measurand and the input quantities. Therefore, the modelling of the measurement is a key element of modern uncertainty evaluation. A modelling concept has been developed that is based on the idea of the measuring chain. It gets on with only a few generic model structures. From this concept, a practical stepwise procedure has been derived

  2. Biofeedback as complementary treatment in patients with epilepsy – an underestimated therapeutic option? Review, results, discussion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Uhlmann Carmen

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Background. Biofeedback methods represent side effect free complementary options in the treatment of epilepsy. In this paper we review the current status of these methods in terms of clinical study results and their evaluation by systematic review papers. Possible mechanisms of action in biofeedback methods are discussed.

  3. Sleep Deprivation and Oxidative Stress in Animal Models: A Systematic Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriel Villafuerte

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Because the function and mechanisms of sleep are partially clear, here we applied a meta-analysis to address the issue whether sleep function includes antioxidative properties in mice and rats. Given the expansion of the knowledge in the sleep field, it is indeed ambitious to describe all mammals, or other animals, in which sleep shows an antioxidant function. However, in this paper we reviewed the current understanding from basic studies in two species to drive the hypothesis that sleep is a dynamic-resting state with antioxidative properties. We performed a systematic review of articles cited in Medline, Scopus, and Web of Science until March 2015 using the following search terms: Sleep or sleep deprivation and oxidative stress, lipid peroxidation, glutathione, nitric oxide, catalase or superoxide dismutase. We found a total of 266 studies. After inclusion and exclusion criteria, 44 articles were included, which are presented and discussed in this study. The complex relationship between sleep duration and oxidative stress is discussed. Further studies should consider molecular and genetic approaches to determine whether disrupted sleep promotes oxidative stress.

  4. Panoramic radiographs underestimate extensions of the anterior loop and mandibular incisive canal

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    De Brito, Ana Caroline Ramos; Nejaim, Yuri; De Freitas, Deborah Queiroz [Dept. of Oral Diagnosis, Division of Oral Radiology, Piracicaba Dental School, University of Campinas, Sao Paulo (Brazil); De Oliveira Santos, Christiano [Dept. of Stomatology, Public Oral Health and Forensic Dentistry, School of Dentistry of Ribeirao Preto, University of Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo (Brazil)

    2016-09-15

    The purpose of this study was to detect the anterior loop of the mental nerve and the mandibular incisive canal in panoramic radiographs (PAN) and cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT) images, as well as to determine the anterior/mesial extension of these structures in panoramic and cross-sectional reconstructions using PAN and CBCT images. Images (both PAN and CBCT) from 90 patients were evaluated by 2 independent observers. Detection of the anterior loop and the incisive canal were compared between PAN and CBCT. The anterior/mesial extension of these structures was compared between PAN and both cross-sectional and panoramic CBCT reconstructions. In CBCT, the anterior loop and the incisive canal were observed in 7.7% and 24.4% of the hemimandibles, respectively. In PAN, the anterior loop and the incisive canal were detected in 15% and 5.5% of cases, respectively. PAN presented more difficulties in the visualization of structures. The anterior/mesial extensions ranged from 0.0 mm to 19.0 mm on CBCT. PAN underestimated the measurements by approximately 2.0 mm. CBCT appears to be a more reliable imaging modality than PAN for preoperative workups of the anterior mandible. Individual variations in the anterior/mesial extensions of the anterior loop of the mental nerve and the mandibular incisive canal mean that is not prudent to rely on a general safe zone for implant placement or bone surgery in the interforaminal region.

  5. Field Measurements Indicate Unexpected, Serious Underestimation of Mussel Heart Rates and Thermal Tolerance by Laboratory Studies.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Morgana Tagliarolo

    Full Text Available Attempts to predict the response of species to long-term environmental change are generally based on extrapolations from laboratory experiments that inevitably simplify the complex interacting effects that occur in the field. We recorded heart rates of two genetic lineages of the brown mussel Perna perna over a full tidal cycle in-situ at two different sites in order to evaluate the cardiac responses of the two genetic lineages present on the South African coast to temperature and the immersion/emersion cycle. "Robomussel" temperature loggers were used to monitor thermal conditions at the two sites over one year. Comparison with live animals showed that robomussels provided a good estimate of mussel body temperatures. A significant difference in estimated body temperatures was observed between the sites and the results showed that, under natural conditions, temperatures regularly approach or exceed the thermal limits of P. perna identified in the laboratory. The two P. perna lineages showed similar tidal and diel patterns of heart rate, with higher cardiac activity during daytime immersion and minimal values during daytime emersion. Comparison of the heart rates measured in the field with data previously measured in the laboratory indicates that laboratory results seriously underestimate heart rate activity, by as much as 75%, especially during immersion. Unexpectedly, field estimates of body temperatures indicated an ability to tolerate temperatures considered lethal on the basis of laboratory measurements. This suggests that the interaction of abiotic conditions in the field does not necessarily raise vulnerability to high temperatures.

  6. Gastroesophageal reflux disease vs. Panayiotopoulos syndrome: an underestimated misdiagnosis in pediatric age?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parisi, Pasquale; Pacchiarotti, Claudia; Ferretti, Alessandro; Bianchi, Simona; Paolino, Maria Chiara; Barreto, Mario; Principessa, Luigi; Villa, Maria Pia

    2014-12-01

    Autonomic signs and symptoms could be of epileptic or nonepileptic origin, and the differential diagnosis depends on a number of factors which include the nature of the autonomic manifestations themselves, the occurrence of other nonictal autonomic signs/symptoms, and the age of the patient. Here, we describe twelve children (aged from ten months to six years at the onset of the symptoms) with Panayiotopoulos syndrome misdiagnosed as gastroesophageal reflux disease. Gastroesophageal reflux disease and Panayiotopoulos syndrome may represent an underestimated diagnostic challenge. When the signs/symptoms occur mainly during sleep, a sleep EEG or, if available, a polysomnographic evaluation may be the most useful investigation to make a differential diagnosis between autonomic epileptic and nonepileptic disorders. An early detection can reduce both the high morbidity related to mismanagement and the high costs to the national health service related to the incorrect diagnostic and therapeutic approaches. To decide if antiseizure therapy is required, one should take into account both the frequency and severity of epileptic seizures and the tendency to have potentially lethal autonomic cardiorespiratory involvement. In conclusion, we would emphasize the need to make a differential diagnosis between gastroesophageal reflux disease and Panayiotopoulos syndrome in patients with "an unusual" late-onset picture of GERD and acid therapy-resistant gastroesophageal reflux, especially if associated with other autonomic symptoms and signs. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Consequences of neurologic lesions assessed by Barthel Index after Botox® injection may be underestimated

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dionyssiotis Y

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Y Dionyssiotis,1,2 D Kiourtidis,3 A Karvouni,3 A Kaliontzoglou,3 I Kliafas31Medical Department, Rehabilitation Center Amyntaio, General Hospital of Florina, Amyntaio, Florina, 2Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation Department, Rhodes General Hospital, Rhodes, Dodecanese, 3Neurologic Department, Rhodes General Hospital, Rhodes, Dodecanese, GreecePurpose: The aim of this study was to investigate whether the consequences of neurologic lesions are underestimated when the Barthel Index (BI is used to assess the clinical outcome of botulinum toxin injection.Patients and methods: The records for all in- and outpatients with various neurologic lesions (stroke, multiple sclerosis, spinal cord injury, traumatic brain injury, and so forth who had been referred to the authors’ departments and who had received botulinum toxin type A (Botox® for spasticity within a 4-year period (2008–2011 were examined retrospectively. BI data were collected and analyzed.Results: The BI score was found to have increased in follow-up assessments (P = 0.048. No correlation was found between the degree of spasticity and the BI score.Conclusion: The specific injection of Botox in patients with neurologic lesions was not strongly correlated with a significant functional outcome according to the BI. The results of this study suggest that clinicians need to look at other measurement scales for the assessment of significant outcomes of Botox in the rehabilitation process after neurologic lesions.Keywords: botulinum toxin type A, spasticity, stroke, multiple sclerosis

  8. Underestimating the Toxicological Challenges Associated with the Use of Herbal Medicinal Products in Developing Countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vidushi S. Neergheen-Bhujun

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Various reports suggest a high contemporaneous prevalence of herb-drug use in both developed and developing countries. The World Health Organisation indicates that 80% of the Asian and African populations rely on traditional medicine as the primary method for their health care needs. Since time immemorial and despite the beneficial and traditional roles of herbs in different communities, the toxicity and herb-drug interactions that emanate from this practice have led to severe adverse effects and fatalities. As a result of the perception that herbal medicinal products have low risk, consumers usually disregard any association between their use and any adverse reactions hence leading to underreporting of adverse reactions. This is particularly common in developing countries and has led to a paucity of scientific data regarding the toxicity and interactions of locally used traditional herbal medicine. Other factors like general lack of compositional and toxicological information of herbs and poor quality of adverse reaction case reports present hurdles which are highly underestimated by the population in the developing world. This review paper addresses these toxicological challenges and calls for natural health product regulations as well as for protocols and guidance documents on safety and toxicity testing of herbal medicinal products.

  9. Underestimating the toxicological challenges associated with the use of herbal medicinal products in developing countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neergheen-Bhujun, Vidushi S

    2013-01-01

    Various reports suggest a high contemporaneous prevalence of herb-drug use in both developed and developing countries. The World Health Organisation indicates that 80% of the Asian and African populations rely on traditional medicine as the primary method for their health care needs. Since time immemorial and despite the beneficial and traditional roles of herbs in different communities, the toxicity and herb-drug interactions that emanate from this practice have led to severe adverse effects and fatalities. As a result of the perception that herbal medicinal products have low risk, consumers usually disregard any association between their use and any adverse reactions hence leading to underreporting of adverse reactions. This is particularly common in developing countries and has led to a paucity of scientific data regarding the toxicity and interactions of locally used traditional herbal medicine. Other factors like general lack of compositional and toxicological information of herbs and poor quality of adverse reaction case reports present hurdles which are highly underestimated by the population in the developing world. This review paper addresses these toxicological challenges and calls for natural health product regulations as well as for protocols and guidance documents on safety and toxicity testing of herbal medicinal products.

  10. Underestimated Halogen Bonds Forming with Protein Backbone in Protein Data Bank.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Qian; Xu, Zhijian; Shi, Jiye; Zhu, Weiliang

    2017-07-24

    Halogen bonds (XBs) are attracting increasing attention in biological systems. Protein Data Bank (PDB) archives experimentally determined XBs in biological macromolecules. However, no software for structure refinement in X-ray crystallography takes into account XBs, which might result in the weakening or even vanishing of experimentally determined XBs in PDB. In our previous study, we showed that side-chain XBs forming with protein side chains are underestimated in PDB on the basis of the phenomenon that the proportion of side-chain XBs to overall XBs decreases as structural resolution becomes lower and lower. However, whether the dominant backbone XBs forming with protein backbone are overlooked is still a mystery. Here, with the help of the ratio (R F ) of the observed XBs' frequency of occurrence to their frequency expected at random, we demonstrated that backbone XBs are largely overlooked in PDB, too. Furthermore, three cases were discovered possessing backbone XBs in high resolution structures while losing the XBs in low resolution structures. In the last two cases, even at 1.80 Å resolution, the backbone XBs were lost, manifesting the urgent need to consider XBs in the refinement process during X-ray crystallography study.

  11. Panoramic radiographs underestimate extensions of the anterior loop and mandibular incisive canal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Brito, Ana Caroline Ramos; Nejaim, Yuri; De Freitas, Deborah Queiroz; De Oliveira Santos, Christiano

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to detect the anterior loop of the mental nerve and the mandibular incisive canal in panoramic radiographs (PAN) and cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT) images, as well as to determine the anterior/mesial extension of these structures in panoramic and cross-sectional reconstructions using PAN and CBCT images. Images (both PAN and CBCT) from 90 patients were evaluated by 2 independent observers. Detection of the anterior loop and the incisive canal were compared between PAN and CBCT. The anterior/mesial extension of these structures was compared between PAN and both cross-sectional and panoramic CBCT reconstructions. In CBCT, the anterior loop and the incisive canal were observed in 7.7% and 24.4% of the hemimandibles, respectively. In PAN, the anterior loop and the incisive canal were detected in 15% and 5.5% of cases, respectively. PAN presented more difficulties in the visualization of structures. The anterior/mesial extensions ranged from 0.0 mm to 19.0 mm on CBCT. PAN underestimated the measurements by approximately 2.0 mm. CBCT appears to be a more reliable imaging modality than PAN for preoperative workups of the anterior mandible. Individual variations in the anterior/mesial extensions of the anterior loop of the mental nerve and the mandibular incisive canal mean that is not prudent to rely on a general safe zone for implant placement or bone surgery in the interforaminal region

  12. Mucus: An Underestimated Gut Target for Environmental Pollutants and Food Additives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gillois, Kévin; Lévêque, Mathilde; Théodorou, Vassilia; Robert, Hervé; Mercier-Bonin, Muriel

    2018-06-15

    Synthetic chemicals (environmental pollutants, food additives) are widely used for many industrial purposes and consumer-related applications, which implies, through manufactured products, diet, and environment, a repeated exposure of the general population with growing concern regarding health disorders. The gastrointestinal tract is the first physical and biological barrier against these compounds, and thus their first target. Mounting evidence indicates that the gut microbiota represents a major player in the toxicity of environmental pollutants and food additives; however, little is known on the toxicological relevance of the mucus/pollutant interplay, even though mucus is increasingly recognized as essential in gut homeostasis. Here, we aimed at describing how environmental pollutants (heavy metals, pesticides, and other persistent organic pollutants) and food additives (emulsifiers, nanomaterials) might interact with mucus and mucus-related microbial species; that is, “mucophilic” bacteria such as mucus degraders. This review highlights that intestinal mucus, either directly or through its crosstalk with the gut microbiota, is a key, yet underestimated gut player that must be considered for better risk assessment and management of environmental pollution.

  13. An underestimated role of precipitation frequency in regulating summer soil moisture

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu Chaoyang; Chen, Jing M; Pumpanen, Jukka; Cescatti, Alessandro; Marcolla, Barbara; Blanken, Peter D; Ardö, Jonas; Tang, Yanhong; Magliulo, Vincenzo; Georgiadis, Teodoro; Soegaard, Henrik; Cook, David R; Harding, Richard J

    2012-01-01

    Soil moisture induced droughts are expected to become more frequent under future global climate change. Precipitation has been previously assumed to be mainly responsible for variability in summer soil moisture. However, little is known about the impacts of precipitation frequency on summer soil moisture, either interannually or spatially. To better understand the temporal and spatial drivers of summer drought, 415 site yr measurements observed at 75 flux sites world wide were used to analyze the temporal and spatial relationships between summer soil water content (SWC) and the precipitation frequencies at various temporal scales, i.e., from half-hourly, 3, 6, 12 and 24 h measurements. Summer precipitation was found to be an indicator of interannual SWC variability with r of 0.49 (p < 0.001) for the overall dataset. However, interannual variability in summer SWC was also significantly correlated with the five precipitation frequencies and the sub-daily precipitation frequencies seemed to explain the interannual SWC variability better than the total of precipitation. Spatially, all these precipitation frequencies were better indicators of summer SWC than precipitation totals, but these better performances were only observed in non-forest ecosystems. Our results demonstrate that precipitation frequency may play an important role in regulating both interannual and spatial variations of summer SWC, which has probably been overlooked or underestimated. However, the spatial interpretation should carefully consider other factors, such as the plant functional types and soil characteristics of diverse ecoregions. (letter)

  14. Underestimated effects of sediments on enhanced startup performance of biofilm systems for polluted source water pretreatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lv, Zheng-Hui; Wang, Jing; Yang, Guang-Feng; Feng, Li-Juan; Mu, Jun; Zhu, Liang; Xu, Xiang-Yang

    2018-02-01

    In order to evaluate the enhancement mechanisms of enhanced startup performance in biofilm systems for polluted source water pretreatment, three lab-scale reactors with elastic stereo media (ESM) were operated under different enhanced sediment and hydraulic agitation conditions. It is interesting to found the previously underestimated or overlooked effects of sediment on the enhancement of pollutants removal performance and enrichment of functional bacteria in biofilm systems. The maximum NH 4 + -N removal rate of 0.35 mg L -1 h -1 in sediment enhanced condition was 2.19 times of that in control reactor. Sediment contributed to 42.0-56.5% of NH 4 + -N removal and 15.4-41.2% of total nitrogen removal in different reactors under different operation conditions. The enhanced hydraulic agitation with sediment further improved the operation performance and accumulation of functional bacteria. Generally, Proteobacteria (48.9-52.1%), Bacteroidetes (18.9-20.8%) and Actinobacteria (15.7-18.5%) were dominant in both sediment and ESM bioiflm at  phylum level. The potentially functional bacteria found in sediment and ESM biofilm samples with some functional bacteria mainly presented in sediment samples only (e.g., Genera Bacillus and Lactococcus of Firmicutes phylum) may commonly contribute to the removal of nitrogen and organics.

  15. Vast underestimation of Madagascar's biodiversity evidenced by an integrative amphibian inventory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vieites, David R; Wollenberg, Katharina C; Andreone, Franco; Köhler, Jörn; Glaw, Frank; Vences, Miguel

    2009-05-19

    Amphibians are in decline worldwide. However, their patterns of diversity, especially in the tropics, are not well understood, mainly because of incomplete information on taxonomy and distribution. We assess morphological, bioacoustic, and genetic variation of Madagascar's amphibians, one of the first near-complete taxon samplings from a biodiversity hotspot. Based on DNA sequences of 2,850 specimens sampled from over 170 localities, our analyses reveal an extreme proportion of amphibian diversity, projecting an almost 2-fold increase in species numbers from the currently described 244 species to a minimum of 373 and up to 465. This diversity is widespread geographically and across most major phylogenetic lineages except in a few previously well-studied genera, and is not restricted to morphologically cryptic clades. We classify the genealogical lineages in confirmed and unconfirmed candidate species or deeply divergent conspecific lineages based on concordance of genetic divergences with other characters. This integrative approach may be widely applicable to improve estimates of organismal diversity. Our results suggest that in Madagascar the spatial pattern of amphibian richness and endemism must be revisited, and current habitat destruction may be affecting more species than previously thought, in amphibians as well as in other animal groups. This case study suggests that worldwide tropical amphibian diversity is probably underestimated at an unprecedented level and stresses the need for integrated taxonomic surveys as a basis for prioritizing conservation efforts within biodiversity hotspots.

  16. PCR diagnostics underestimate the prevalence of avian malaria (Plasmodium relictum) in experimentally-infected passerines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jarvi, Susan I.; Schultz, Jeffrey J.; Atkinson, Carter T.

    2002-01-01

    Several polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-based methods have recently been developed for diagnosing malarial infections in both birds and reptiles, but a critical evaluation of their sensitivity in experimentally-infected hosts has not been done. This study compares the sensitivity of several PCR-based methods for diagnosing avian malaria (Plasmodium relictum) in captive Hawaiian honeycreepers using microscopy and a recently developed immunoblotting technique. Sequential blood samples were collected over periods of up to 4.4 yr after experimental infection and rechallenge to determine both the duration and detectability of chronic infections. Two new nested PCR approaches for detecting circulating parasites based on P. relictum 18S rRNA genes and the thrombospondin-related anonymous protein (TRAP) gene are described. The blood smear and the PCR tests were less sensitive than serological methods for detecting chronic malarial infections. Individually, none of the diagnostic methods was 100% accurate in detecting subpatent infections, although serological methods were significantly more sensitive (97%) than either nested PCR (61–84%) or microscopy (27%). Circulating parasites in chronically infected birds either disappear completely from circulation or to drop to intensities below detectability by nested PCR. Thus, the use of PCR as a sole means of detection of circulating parasites may significantly underestimate true prevalence.

  17. Exacerbations in adults with asthma: A systematic review and external validation of prediction models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Loymans, Rik J. B.; Debray, Thomas P. A.; Honkoop, Persijn J.; Termeer, Evelien H.; Snoeck-Stroband, Jiska B.; Schermer, Tjard R. J.; Assendelft, Willem J. J.; Timp, Merel; Chung, Kian Fan; Sousa, Ana R.; Sont, Jaap K.; Sterk, Peter J.; Reddel, Helen K.; ter Riet, Gerben

    2018-01-01

    Several prediction models assessing future risk of exacerbations in adult patients with asthma have been published. Applicability of these models is uncertain because their predictive performance has often not been assessed beyond the population in which they were derived. This study aimed to

  18. Teaching Personal and Social Responsibility Model-Based Programmes in Physical Education: A Systematic Review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pozo, Pablo; Grao-Cruces, Alberto; Pérez-Ordás, Raquel

    2018-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to conduct a review of research on the Teaching Personal and Social Responsibility model-based programme within physical education. Papers selected for analysis were found through searches of Web of Science, SportDiscus (EBSCO), SCOPUS, and ERIC (ProQuest) databases. The keywords "responsibility model" and…

  19. A more realistic estimate of the variances and systematic errors in spherical harmonic geomagnetic field models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lowes, F.J.; Olsen, Nils

    2004-01-01

    Most modern spherical harmonic geomagnetic models based on satellite data include estimates of the variances of the spherical harmonic coefficients of the model; these estimates are based on the geometry of the data and the fitting functions, and on the magnitude of the residuals. However...

  20. Systematic assignment of Feshbach resonances via an asymptotic bound state model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Goosen, M.; Kokkelmans, SJ.J.M.F.

    2008-01-01

    We present an Asymptotic Bound state Model (ABM), which is useful to predict Feshbach resonances. The model utilizes asymptotic properties of the interaction potentials to represent coupled molecular wavefunctions. The bound states of this system give rise to Feshbach resonances, localized at the

  1. A systematic literature review of studies on business process modeling quality

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Moreno-Montes de Oca, I.; Snoeck, M.; Reijers, H.A.; Rodríguez-Morffi, A.

    2015-01-01

    Context. Business process modeling is an essential part of understanding and redesigning the activities that a typical enterprise uses to achieve its business goals. The quality of a business process model has a significant impact on the development of any enterprise and IT support for that process.

  2. Overview of data-synthesis in systematic reviews of studies on outcome prediction models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    T. van den Berg (Tobias); M.W. Heymans (Martijn); O. Leone; D. Vergouw (David); J. Hayden (Jill); A.P. Verhagen (Arianne); H.C. de Vet (Henrica C)

    2013-01-01

    textabstractBackground: Many prognostic models have been developed. Different types of models, i.e. prognostic factor and outcome prediction studies, serve different purposes, which should be reflected in how the results are summarized in reviews. Therefore we set out to investigate how authors of

  3. A systematic literature review of studies on business process modeling quality

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Moreno-Montes de Oca, I.; Snoeck, M.; Reijers, H.A.; Rodríguez-Morffi, A.

    2015-01-01

    Context: Business process modeling is an essential part of understanding and redesigning the activities that a typical enterprise uses to achieve its business goals. The quality of a business process model has a significant impact on the development of any enterprise and IT support for that process.

  4. Consumer underestimation of sodium in fast food restaurant meals: Results from a cross-sectional observational study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moran, Alyssa J; Ramirez, Maricelle; Block, Jason P

    2017-06-01

    Restaurants are key venues for reducing sodium intake in the U.S. but little is known about consumer perceptions of sodium in restaurant foods. This study quantifies the difference between estimated and actual sodium content of restaurant meals and examines predictors of underestimation in adult and adolescent diners at fast food restaurants. In 2013 and 2014, meal receipts and questionnaires were collected from adults and adolescents dining at six restaurant chains in four New England cities. The sample included 993 adults surveyed during 229 dinnertime visits to 44 restaurants and 794 adolescents surveyed during 298 visits to 49 restaurants after school or at lunchtime. Diners were asked to estimate the amount of sodium (mg) in the meal they had just purchased. Sodium estimates were compared with actual sodium in the meal, calculated by matching all items that the respondent purchased for personal consumption to sodium information on chain restaurant websites. Mean (SD) actual sodium (mg) content of meals was 1292 (970) for adults and 1128 (891) for adolescents. One-quarter of diners (176 (23%) adults, 155 (25%) adolescents) were unable or unwilling to provide estimates of the sodium content of their meals. Of those who provided estimates, 90% of adults and 88% of adolescents underestimated sodium in their meals, with adults underestimating sodium by a mean (SD) of 1013 mg (1,055) and adolescents underestimating by 876 mg (1,021). Respondents underestimated sodium content more for meals with greater sodium content. Education about sodium at point-of-purchase, such as provision of sodium information on restaurant menu boards, may help correct consumer underestimation, particularly for meals of high sodium content. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Lifetimes of excited states in 196198Pt; application of interacting bason approximation model to even Pt isotopes systematics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bolotin, H.H.; Stuchbery, A.E.; Morrison, I.; Kennedy, D.L.; Ryan, C.G.; Sie, S.H.

    1981-01-01

    The lifetimes and lifetime limits of the low-lying excited states up to and including the 6 1 + levels in 196 198 Pt were determined by the rcoil-distance method (RDM). Gamma-ray angular distributions in 198 Pt were also measured. These states were populated by multiple Coulomb excitation using 220-MeV 58 Ni ion beams and the measurements carried out in coincidence with backscattered projectiles. The measured mean lives of the states and B(E2) values inferred for the transitions between levels are presented. These specific findings, and the observed structure systematics obtained from the combination of the present results and those of prior workers for the even 194 - 198 Pt isotopes, are critically compared with our structure calculations employing the Interacting Boson Approximation (IBA) model incorporating a symmetry-breaking quadrupole force. Evaluative comparisons are also made with Boson Expansion Theory (BET) calculations

  6. Lifetimes of excited states in 196, 198Pt; Application of interacting boson approximation model to even Pt isotopes systematics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bolotin, H. H.; Stuchbery, A. E.; Morrison, I.; Kennedy, D. L.; Ryan, C. G.; Sie, S. H.

    1981-11-01

    The lifetimes and lifetime limits of the low-lying excited states up to and including the 6 1+ levels in 196, 198Pt were determined by the recoil-distance method (RDM). Gamma-ray angular distributions in 198Pt were also measured. These states were populated by multiple Coulomb excitation using 220 MeV 58Ni ion beams and the measurements were carried out in coincidence with back-scattered projectiles. The measured mean lives of the states and B(E2) values inferred for the transitions between levels are presented. These specific findings, and the observed structure systematics obtained from the combination of the present results and those of prior workers for the even 194-198Pt isotopes, are critically compared with our structure calculations employing the interacting boson approximation (IBA) model incorporating a symmetry-breaking quadrupole force; evaluative comparisons are also made with boson expansion theory (BET) calculations.

  7. Lifetimes of excited states in 196,198Pt; application of interacting boson approximation model to even Pt isotopes systematics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bolotin, H.H.; Stuchbery, A.E.; Morrison, I.; Kennedy, D.L.; Ryan, C.G.; Sie, S.H.

    1981-01-01

    The lifetimes and lifetime limits of the low-lying excited states up to and including the 6 + 1 levels in sup(196, 198)Pt were determined by the recoil-distance method (RDM). Gamma-ray angular distributions in 198 Pt were also measured. These states were populated by multiple Coulomb excitation using 220 MeV 58 Ni ion beams and the measurements were carried out in coincidence with backscattering projectiles. The measured mean lives of the states and B(E2) values inferred for the transitions between levels are presented. These specific findings, and the observed structure systematics obtained from the combination of the present results and those of prior workers for the even sup(194-198)Pt isotopes, are critically compared with our structure calculations employing the interacting boson approximation (IBA) model incorporating a symmetry-breaking quadrupole force; evaluative comparisons are also made with boson expansion theory (BET) calculations. (orig.)

  8. Contact tracing of tuberculosis: a systematic review of transmission modelling studies.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matt Begun

    Full Text Available The WHO recommended intervention of Directly Observed Treatment, Short-course (DOTS appears to have been less successful than expected in reducing the burden of TB in some high prevalence settings. One strategy for enhancing DOTS is incorporating active case-finding through screening contacts of TB patients as widely used in low-prevalence settings. Predictive models that incorporate population-level effects on transmission provide one means of predicting impacts of such interventions. We aim to identify all TB transmission modelling studies addressing contact tracing and to describe and critically assess their modelling assumptions, parameter choices and relevance to policy. We searched MEDLINE, SCOPUS, COMPENDEX, Google Scholar and Web of Science databases for relevant English language publications up to February 2012. Of the 1285 studies identified, only 5 studies met our inclusion criteria of models of TB transmission dynamics in human populations designed to incorporate contact tracing as an intervention. Detailed implementation of contact processes was only present in two studies, while only one study presented a model for a high prevalence, developing world setting. Some use of relevant data for parameter estimation was made in each study however validation of the predicted impact of interventions was not attempted in any of the studies. Despite a large body of literature on TB transmission modelling, few published studies incorporate contact tracing. There is considerable scope for future analyses to make better use of data and to apply individual based models to facilitate more realistic patterns of infectious contact. Combined with a focus on high burden settings this would greatly increase the potential for models to inform the use of contract tracing as a TB control policy. Our findings highlight the potential for collaborative work between clinicians, epidemiologists and modellers to gather data required to enhance model development

  9. Contact tracing of tuberculosis: a systematic review of transmission modelling studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Begun, Matt; Newall, Anthony T; Marks, Guy B; Wood, James G

    2013-01-01

    The WHO recommended intervention of Directly Observed Treatment, Short-course (DOTS) appears to have been less successful than expected in reducing the burden of TB in some high prevalence settings. One strategy for enhancing DOTS is incorporating active case-finding through screening contacts of TB patients as widely used in low-prevalence settings. Predictive models that incorporate population-level effects on transmission provide one means of predicting impacts of such interventions. We aim to identify all TB transmission modelling studies addressing contact tracing and to describe and critically assess their modelling assumptions, parameter choices and relevance to policy. We searched MEDLINE, SCOPUS, COMPENDEX, Google Scholar and Web of Science databases for relevant English language publications up to February 2012. Of the 1285 studies identified, only 5 studies met our inclusion criteria of models of TB transmission dynamics in human populations designed to incorporate contact tracing as an intervention. Detailed implementation of contact processes was only present in two studies, while only one study presented a model for a high prevalence, developing world setting. Some use of relevant data for parameter estimation was made in each study however validation of the predicted impact of interventions was not attempted in any of the studies. Despite a large body of literature on TB transmission modelling, few published studies incorporate contact tracing. There is considerable scope for future analyses to make better use of data and to apply individual based models to facilitate more realistic patterns of infectious contact. Combined with a focus on high burden settings this would greatly increase the potential for models to inform the use of contract tracing as a TB control policy. Our findings highlight the potential for collaborative work between clinicians, epidemiologists and modellers to gather data required to enhance model development and validation and

  10. Toward a Two-Dimensional Model of Social Cognition in Clinical Neuropsychology: A Systematic Review of Factor Structure Studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Etchepare, Aurore; Prouteau, Antoinette

    2018-04-01

    Social cognition has received growing interest in many conditions in recent years. However, this construct still suffers from a considerable lack of consensus, especially regarding the dimensions to be studied and the resulting methodology of clinical assessment. Our review aims to clarify the distinctiveness of the dimensions of social cognition. Based on Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) statements, a systematic review was conducted to explore the factor structure of social cognition in the adult general and clinical populations. The initial search provided 441 articles published between January 1982 and March 2017. Eleven studies were included, all conducted in psychiatric populations and/or healthy participants. Most studies were in favor of a two-factor solution. Four studies drew a distinction between low-level (e.g., facial emotion/prosody recognition) and high-level (e.g., theory of mind) information processing. Four others reported a distinction between affective (e.g., facial emotion/prosody recognition) and cognitive (e.g., false beliefs) information processing. Interestingly, attributional style was frequently reported as an additional separate factor of social cognition. Results of factor analyses add further support for the relevance of models differentiating level of information processing (low- vs. high-level) from nature of processed information (affective vs. cognitive). These results add to a significant body of empirical evidence from developmental, clinical research and neuroimaging studies. We argue the relevance of integrating low- versus high-level processing with affective and cognitive processing in a two-dimensional model of social cognition that would be useful for future research and clinical practice. (JINS, 2018, 24, 391-404).

  11. Systematic review of the synergist muscle ablation model for compensatory hypertrophy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terena, Stella Maris Lins; Fernandes, Kristianne Porta Santos; Bussadori, Sandra Kalill; Deana, Alessandro Melo; Mesquita-Ferrari, Raquel Agnelli

    2017-02-01

    The aim was to evaluate the effectiveness of the experimental synergists muscle ablation model to promote muscle hypertrophy, determine the period of greatest hypertrophy and its influence on muscle fiber types and determine differences in bilateral and unilateral removal to reduce the number of animals used in this model. Following the application of the eligibility criteria for the mechanical overload of the plantar muscle in rats, nineteen papers were included in the review. The results reveal a greatest hypertrophy occurring between days 12 and 15, and based on the findings, synergist muscle ablation is an efficient model for achieving rapid hypertrophy and the contralateral limb can be used as there was no difference between unilateral and bilateral surgery, which reduces the number of animals used in this model. This model differs from other overload models (exercise and training) regarding the characteristics involved in the hypertrophy process (acute) and result in a chronic muscle adaptation with selective regulation and modification of fast-twitch fibers in skeletal muscle. This is an efficient and rapid model for compensatory hypertrophy.

  12. Systematic review of the synergist muscle ablation model for compensatory hypertrophy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stella Maris Lins Terena

    Full Text Available Summary Objective: The aim was to evaluate the effectiveness of the experimental synergists muscle ablation model to promote muscle hypertrophy, determine the period of greatest hypertrophy and its influence on muscle fiber types and determine differences in bilateral and unilateral removal to reduce the number of animals used in this model. Method: Following the application of the eligibility criteria for the mechanical overload of the plantar muscle in rats, nineteen papers were included in the review. Results: The results reveal a greatest hypertrophy occurring between days 12 and 15, and based on the findings, synergist muscle ablation is an efficient model for achieving rapid hypertrophy and the contralateral limb can be used as there was no difference between unilateral and bilateral surgery, which reduces the number of animals used in this model. Conclusion: This model differs from other overload models (exercise and training regarding the characteristics involved in the hypertrophy process (acute and result in a chronic muscle adaptation with selective regulation and modification of fast-twitch fibers in skeletal muscle. This is an efficient and rapid model for compensatory hypertrophy.

  13. Cost Effectiveness of HPV Vaccination: A Systematic Review of Modelling Approaches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pink, Joshua; Parker, Ben; Petrou, Stavros

    2016-09-01

    A large number of economic evaluations have been published that assess alternative possible human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination strategies. Understanding differences in the modelling methodologies used in these studies is important to assess the accuracy, comparability and generalisability of their results. The aim of this review was to identify published economic models of HPV vaccination programmes and understand how characteristics of these studies vary by geographical area, date of publication and the policy question being addressed. We performed literature searches in MEDLINE, Embase, Econlit, The Health Economic Evaluations Database (HEED) and The National Health Service Economic Evaluation Database (NHS EED). From the 1189 unique studies retrieved, 65 studies were included for data extraction based on a priori eligibility criteria. Two authors independently reviewed these articles to determine eligibility for the final review. Data were extracted from the selected studies, focussing on six key structural or methodological themes covering different aspects of the model(s) used that may influence cost-effectiveness results. More recently published studies tend to model a larger number of HPV strains, and include a larger number of HPV-associated diseases. Studies published in Europe and North America also tend to include a larger number of diseases and are more likely to incorporate the impact of herd immunity and to use more realistic assumptions around vaccine efficacy and coverage. Studies based on previous models often do not include sufficiently robust justifications as to the applicability of the adapted model to the new context. The considerable between-study heterogeneity in economic evaluations of HPV vaccination programmes makes comparisons between studies difficult, as observed differences in cost effectiveness may be driven by differences in methodology as well as by variations in funding and delivery models and estimates of model parameters

  14. Predicting long-range transport: a systematic evaluation of two multimedia transport models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennett, D H; Scheringer, M; McKone, T E; Hungerbühler, K

    2001-03-15

    The United Nations Environment Program has recently developed criteria to identify and restrict chemicals with a potential for persistence and long-range transport (persistent organic pollutants or POPs). There are many stakeholders involved, and the issues are not only scientific but also include social, economic, and political factors. This work focuses on one aspect of the POPs debate, the criteria for determining the potential for long-range transport (LRT). Our goal is to determine if current models are reliable enough to support decisions that classify a chemical based on the LRT potential. We examine the robustness of two multimedia fate models for determining the relative ranking and absolute spatial range of various chemicals in the environment. We also consider the effect of parameter uncertainties and the model uncertainty associated with the selection of an algorithm for gas-particle partitioning on the model results. Given the same chemical properties, both models give virtually the same ranking. However, when chemical parameter uncertainties and model uncertainties such as particle partitioning are considered, the spatial range distributions obtained for the individual chemicals overlap, preventing a distinct rank order. The absolute values obtained for the predicted spatial range or travel distance differ significantly between the two models for the uncertainties evaluated. We find that to evaluate a chemical when large and unresolved uncertainties exist, it is more informative to use two or more models and include multiple types of uncertainty. Model differences and uncertainties must be explicitly confronted to determine how the limitations of scientific knowledge impact predictions in the decision-making process.

  15. Model-Based Economic Evaluation of Treatments for Depression: A Systematic Literature Review

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kolovos, Spyros; Bosmans, Judith E.; Riper, Heleen

    2017-01-01

    eligible if they used a health economic model with quality-adjusted life-years or disability-adjusted life-years as an outcome measure. Data related to various methodological characteristics were extracted from the included studies. The available modelling techniques were evaluated based on 11 predefined......, and DES models in seven.ConclusionThere were substantial methodological differences between the studies. Since the individual history of each patient is important for the prognosis of depression, DES and ISM simulation methods may be more appropriate than the others for a pragmatic representation...

  16. Systematic Identification of Stakeholders for Engagement with Systems Modeling Efforts in the Snohomish Basin, Washington, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Even as stakeholder engagement in systems dynamic modeling efforts is increasingly promoted, the mechanisms for identifying which stakeholders should be included are rarely documented. Accordingly, for an Environmental Protection Agency’s Triple Value Simulation (3VS) mode...

  17. Modeling of systematic retention of beryllium in rats. Extrapolation to humans

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Montero Prieto, M.; Vidania Munoz, R. de.

    1994-01-01

    In this work, we analyzed different approaches, assayed in order to numerically describe the systemic behaviour of Beryllium. The experimental results used in this work, were previously obtained by Furchner et al. (1973), using Sprague-Dawley rats, and other animal species. Furchner's work includes the obtained model for whole body retention in rats but not for each target organ. In this work we present the results obtained by modeling the kinetic behaviour of Beryllium in several target organs. The results of this kind of models were used in order to establish correlations among the estimated kinetic constants. The parameters of the model were extrapolated to humans and, finally, compared with other previously published

  18. Economic Models of Preventive Dentistry for Australian Children and Adolescents: A Systematic Review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tonmukayakul, Utsana; Sia, Kah-Ling; Gold, Lisa; Hegde, Shalika; de Silva, Andrea M; Moodie, Marj

    2015-01-01

    To identify economic evaluation models and parameters that could be replicated or adapted to construct a generic model to assess cost-effectiveness of and prioritise a wide range of community-based oral disease prevention programmes in an Australian context. The literature search was conducted using MEDLINE, ERIC, PsycINFO, CINHAL (EBSCOhost), EMBASE (Ovid), CRD, DARE, NHSEED, HTA, all databases in the Cochrane library, Scopus and ScienceDirect databases from their inception to November 2012. Thirty-three articles met the criteria for inclusion in this review (7 were Australian studies, 26 articles were international). Existing models focused primarily on dental caries. Periodontal disease, another common oral health problem, was lacking. Among caries prevention studies, there was an absence of clear evidence showing continuous benefits from primary through to permanent dentition and the long-term effects of oral health promotion. No generic model was identified from previous studies that could be immediately adopted or adapted for our purposes of simulating and prioritising a diverse range of oral health interventions for Australian children and adolescents. Nevertheless, data sources specified in the existing Australian-based models will be useful for developing a generic model for such purposes.

  19. Development of systematic models for aerosol agglomeration and spray removal under severe accident conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kajimoto, Mitsuhiro

    2008-01-01

    Radionuclide behavior during various severe accident conditions has been addressed as one of the important issues to discuss environmental safety in nuclear power plants. The present paper deals with the development of analytical models and their validations for the agglomeration of multiple-component aerosol and spray removal that controls source terms to the environment of both aerosols and gaseous radionuclides during recirculation mode operation in a containment system for a light water reactor. As for aerosol agglomeration, the single collision kernel model that can cover all types of two-body collision of aerosol was developed. In addition, the dynamic model that can treat aerosol and vapor transfer leading to the equilibrium condition under the containment spray operation was developed. The validations of the present models for multiple-component aerosol growth by agglomeration were performed by comparisons with Nuclear Safety Pilot Plant (NSPP) experiments at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and AB experiments at Hanford Engineering National Laboratory (HEDL). In addition, the spray removal models were applied to the analysis of containment spray experiment (CSE) at HEDL. The results calculated by the models showed good agreements with experimental results. (author)

  20. Modeling companion diagnostics in economic evaluations of targeted oncology therapies: systematic review and methodological checklist.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doble, Brett; Tan, Marcus; Harris, Anthony; Lorgelly, Paula

    2015-02-01

    The successful use of a targeted therapy is intrinsically linked to the ability of a companion diagnostic to correctly identify patients most likely to benefit from treatment. The aim of this study was to review the characteristics of companion diagnostics that are of importance for inclusion in an economic evaluation. Approaches for including these characteristics in model-based economic evaluations are compared with the intent to describe best practice methods. Five databases and government agency websites were searched to identify model-based economic evaluations comparing a companion diagnostic and subsequent treatment strategy to another alternative treatment strategy with model parameters for the sensitivity and specificity of the companion diagnostic (primary synthesis). Economic evaluations that limited model parameters for the companion diagnostic to only its cost were also identified (secondary synthesis). Quality was assessed using the Quality of Health Economic Studies instrument. 30 studies were included in the review (primary synthesis n = 12; secondary synthesis n = 18). Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios may be lower when the only parameter for the companion diagnostic included in a model is the cost of testing. Incorporating the test's accuracy in addition to its cost may be a more appropriate methodological approach. Altering the prevalence of the genetic biomarker, specific population tested, type of test, test accuracy and timing/sequence of multiple tests can all impact overall model results. The impact of altering a test's threshold for positivity is unknown as it was not addressed in any of the included studies. Additional quality criteria as outlined in our methodological checklist should be considered due to the shortcomings of standard quality assessment tools in differentiating studies that incorporate important test-related characteristics and those that do not. There is a need to refine methods for incorporating the characteristics

  1. Combination strategies for pandemic influenza response - a systematic review of mathematical modeling studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lee Vernon J

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Individual strategies in pandemic preparedness plans may not reduce the impact of an influenza pandemic. Methods We searched modeling publications through PubMed and associated references from 1990 to 30 September 2009. Inclusion criteria were modeling papers quantifying the effectiveness of combination strategies, both pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical. Results Nineteen modeling papers on combination strategies were selected. Four studies examined combination strategies on a global scale, 14 on single countries, and one on a small community. Stochastic individual-based modeling was used in nine studies, stochastic meta-population modeling in five, and deterministic compartmental modeling in another five. As part of combination strategies, vaccination was explored in eight studies, antiviral prophylaxis and/or treatment in 16, area or household quarantine in eight, case isolation in six, social distancing measures in 10 and air travel restriction in six studies. Two studies suggested a high probability of successful influenza epicenter containment with combination strategies under favorable conditions. During a pandemic, combination strategies delayed spread, reduced overall number of cases, and delayed and reduced peak attack rate more than individual strategies. Combination strategies remained effective at high reproductive numbers compared with single strategy. Global cooperative strategies, including redistribution of antiviral drugs, were effective in reducing the global impact and attack rates of pandemic influenza. Conclusion Combination strategies increase the effectiveness of individual strategies. They include pharmaceutical (antiviral agents, antibiotics and vaccines and non-pharmaceutical interventions (case isolation, quarantine, personal hygiene measures, social distancing and travel restriction. Local epidemiological and modeling studies are needed to validate efficacy and feasibility.

  2. Finite element modelling of the foot for clinical application: A systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Behforootan, Sara; Chatzistergos, Panagiotis; Naemi, Roozbeh; Chockalingam, Nachiappan

    2017-01-01

    Over the last two decades finite element modelling has been widely used to give new insight on foot and footwear biomechanics. However its actual contribution for the improvement of the therapeutic outcome of different pathological conditions of the foot, such as the diabetic foot, remains relatively limited. This is mainly because finite element modelling has only been used within the research domain. Clinically applicable finite element modelling can open the way for novel diagnostic techniques and novel methods for treatment planning/optimisation which would significantly enhance clinical practice. In this context this review aims to provide an overview of modelling techniques in the field of foot and footwear biomechanics and to investigate their applicability in a clinical setting. Even though no integrated modelling system exists that could be directly used in the clinic and considerable progress is still required, current literature includes a comprehensive toolbox for future work towards clinically applicable finite element modelling. The key challenges include collecting the information that is needed for geometry design, the assignment of material properties and loading on a patient-specific basis and in a cost-effective and non-invasive way. The ultimate challenge for the implementation of any computational system into clinical practice is to ensure that it can produce reliable results for any person that belongs in the population for which it was developed. Consequently this highlights the need for thorough and extensive validation of each individual step of the modelling process as well as for the overall validation of the final integrated system. Copyright © 2016 IPEM. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. The Efficacy of Trastuzumab in Animal Models of Breast Cancer: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiarong Chen

    Full Text Available Breast cancer is the most frequent cancers and is the second leading cause of cancer death among women. Trastuzumab is an effective treatment, the first monoclonal antibody directed against the human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2. To inform the development of other effective treatments we report summary estimates of efficacy of trastuzumab on survival and tumour volume in animal models of breast cancer.We searched PubMed and EMBASE systematically to identify publications testing trastuzumab in animal models of breast cancer. Data describing tumour volume, median survival and animal features were extracted and we assessed quality using a 12-item checklist. We analysed the impact of study design and quality and evidence for publication bias.We included data from 83 studies reporting 169 experiments using 2076 mice. Trastuzumab treatment caused a substantial reduction in tumour growth, with tumours in treated animals growing to 32.6% of the volume of tumours in control animals (95%CI 27.8%-38.2%. Median survival was prolonged by a factor of 1.45 (1.30-1.62. Many study design and quality features accounted for between-study heterogeneity and we found evidence suggesting publication bias.We have found trastuzumab to be effective in animal breast cancer models across a range of experimental circumstances. However the presence of publication bias and a low prevalence of measures to reduce bias provide a focus for future improvements in preclinical breast cancer research.

  4. A hybrid model for combining case-control and cohort studies in systematic reviews of diagnostic tests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yong; Liu, Yulun; Ning, Jing; Cormier, Janice; Chu, Haitao

    2014-01-01

    Systematic reviews of diagnostic tests often involve a mixture of case-control and cohort studies. The standard methods for evaluating diagnostic accuracy only focus on sensitivity and specificity and ignore the information on disease prevalence contained in cohort studies. Consequently, such methods cannot provide estimates of measures related to disease prevalence, such as population averaged or overall positive and negative predictive values, which reflect the clinical utility of a diagnostic test. In this paper, we propose a hybrid approach that jointly models the disease prevalence along with the diagnostic test sensitivity and specificity in cohort studies, and the sensitivity and specificity in case-control studies. In order to overcome the potential computational difficulties in the standard full likelihood inference of the proposed hybrid model, we propose an alternative inference procedure based on the composite likelihood. Such composite likelihood based inference does not suffer computational problems and maintains high relative efficiency. In addition, it is more robust to model mis-specifications compared to the standard full likelihood inference. We apply our approach to a review of the performance of contemporary diagnostic imaging modalities for detecting metastases in patients with melanoma. PMID:25897179

  5. Improving emissions inventories in North America through systematic analysis of model performance during ICARTT and MILAGRO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mena, Marcelo Andres

    During 2004 and 2006 the University of Iowa provided air quality forecast support for flight planning of the ICARTT and MILAGRO field campaigns. A method for improvement of model performance in comparison to observations is showed. The method allows identifying sources of model error from boundary conditions and emissions inventories. Simultaneous analysis of horizontal interpolation of model error and error covariance showed that error in ozone modeling is highly correlated to the error of its precursors, and that there is geographical correlation also. During ICARTT ozone modeling error was improved by updating from the National Emissions Inventory from 1999 and 2001, and furthermore by updating large point source emissions from continuous monitoring data. Further improvements were achieved by reducing area emissions of NOx y 60% for states in the Southeast United States. Ozone error was highly correlated to NOy error during this campaign. Also ozone production in the United States was most sensitive to NOx emissions. During MILAGRO model performance in terms of correlation coefficients was higher, but model error in ozone modeling was high due overestimation of NOx and VOC emissions in Mexico City during forecasting. Large model improvements were shown by decreasing NOx emissions in Mexico City by 50% and VOC by 60%. Recurring ozone error is spatially correlated to CO and NOy error. Sensitivity studies show that Mexico City aerosol can reduce regional photolysis rates by 40% and ozone formation by 5-10%. Mexico City emissions can enhance NOy and O3 concentrations over the Gulf of Mexico in up to 10-20%. Mexico City emissions can convert regional ozone production regimes from VOC to NOx limited. A method of interpolation of observations along flight tracks is shown, which can be used to infer on the direction of outflow plumes. The use of ratios such as O3/NOy and NOx/NOy can be used to provide information on chemical characteristics of the plume, such as age

  6. Diagnostic accuracy and measurement sensitivity of digital models for orthodontic purposes: A systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rossini, Gabriele; Parrini, Simone; Castroflorio, Tommaso; Deregibus, Andrea; Debernardi, Cesare L

    2016-02-01

    Our objective was to assess the accuracy, validity, and reliability of measurements obtained from virtual dental study models compared with those obtained from plaster models. PubMed, PubMed Central, National Library of Medicine Medline, Embase, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Clinical trials, Web of Knowledge, Scopus, Google Scholar, and LILACs were searched from January 2000 to November 2014. A grading system described by the Swedish Council on Technology Assessment in Health Care and the Cochrane tool for risk of bias assessment were used to rate the methodologic quality of the articles. Thirty-five relevant articles were selected. The methodologic quality was high. No significant differences were observed for most of the studies in all the measured parameters, with the exception of the American Board of Orthodontics Objective Grading System. Digital models are as reliable as traditional plaster models, with high accuracy, reliability, and reproducibility. Landmark identification, rather than the measuring device or the software, appears to be the greatest limitation. Furthermore, with their advantages in terms of cost, time, and space required, digital models could be considered the new gold standard in current practice. Copyright © 2016 American Association of Orthodontists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. New systematic methodology for incorporating dynamic heat transfer modelling in multi-phase biochemical reactors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernández-Arévalo, T; Lizarralde, I; Grau, P; Ayesa, E

    2014-09-01

    This paper presents a new modelling methodology for dynamically predicting the heat produced or consumed in the transformations of any biological reactor using Hess's law. Starting from a complete description of model components stoichiometry and formation enthalpies, the proposed modelling methodology has integrated successfully the simultaneous calculation of both the conventional mass balances and the enthalpy change of reaction in an expandable multi-phase matrix structure, which facilitates a detailed prediction of the main heat fluxes in the biochemical reactors. The methodology has been implemented in a plant-wide modelling methodology in order to facilitate the dynamic description of mass and heat throughout the plant. After validation with literature data, as illustrative examples of the capability of the methodology, two case studies have been described. In the first one, a predenitrification-nitrification dynamic process has been analysed, with the aim of demonstrating the easy integration of the methodology in any system. In the second case study, the simulation of a thermal model for an ATAD has shown the potential of the proposed methodology for analysing the effect of ventilation and influent characterization. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Systematic analysis of a xenograft mice model for KSHV+ primary effusion lymphoma (PEL.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lu Dai

    Full Text Available Kaposi's sarcoma-associated herpesvirus is the causative agent of primary effusion lymphoma (PEL, which arises preferentially in the setting of infection with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV. Even with standard cytotoxic chemotherapy, PEL continues to cause high mortality rates, requiring the development of novel therapeutic strategies. PEL xenograft models employing immunodeficient mice have been used to study the in vivo effects of a variety of therapeutic approaches. However, it remains unclear whether these xenograft models entirely reflect clinical presentations of KSHV(+ PEL, especially given the recent description of extracavitary solid tumor variants arising in patients. In addition, effusion and solid tumor cells propagated in vivo exhibit unique biology, differing from one another or from their parental cell lines propagated through in vitro culture. Therefore, we used a KSHV(+ PEL/BCBL-1 xenograft model involving non-obese diabetic/severe-combined immunodeficient (NOD/SCID mice, and compared characteristics of effusion and solid tumors with their parent cell culture-derived counterparts. Our results indicate that although this xenograft model can be used for study of effusion and solid lymphoma observed in patients, tumor cells in vivo display unique features to those passed in vitro, including viral lytic gene expression profile, rate of solid tumor development, the host proteins and the complex of tumor microenvironment. These items should be carefully considered when the xenograft model is used for testing novel therapeutic strategies against KSHV-related lymphoma.

  9. Republic of Georgia estimates for prevalence of drug use: Randomized response techniques suggest under-estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirtadze, Irma; Otiashvili, David; Tabatadze, Mzia; Vardanashvili, Irina; Sturua, Lela; Zabransky, Tomas; Anthony, James C

    2018-06-01

    Validity of responses in surveys is an important research concern, especially in emerging market economies where surveys in the general population are a novelty, and the level of social control is traditionally higher. The Randomized Response Technique (RRT) can be used as a check on response validity when the study aim is to estimate population prevalence of drug experiences and other socially sensitive and/or illegal behaviors. To apply RRT and to study potential under-reporting of drug use in a nation-scale, population-based general population survey of alcohol and other drug use. For this first-ever household survey on addictive substances for the Country of Georgia, we used the multi-stage probability sampling of 18-to-64-year-old household residents of 111 urban and 49 rural areas. During the interviewer-administered assessments, RRT involved pairing of sensitive and non-sensitive questions about drug experiences. Based upon the standard household self-report survey estimate, an estimated 17.3% [95% confidence interval, CI: 15.5%, 19.1%] of Georgian household residents have tried cannabis. The corresponding RRT estimate was 29.9% [95% CI: 24.9%, 34.9%]. The RRT estimates for other drugs such as heroin also were larger than the standard self-report estimates. We remain unsure about what is the "true" value for prevalence of using illegal psychotropic drugs in the Republic of Georgia study population. Our RRT results suggest that standard non-RRT approaches might produce 'under-estimates' or at best, highly conservative, lower-end estimates. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. Neglecting rice milling yield and quality underestimates economic losses from high-temperature stress.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nathaniel B Lyman

    Full Text Available Future increases in global surface temperature threaten those worldwide who depend on rice production for their livelihoods and food security. Past analyses of high-temperature stress on rice production have focused on paddy yield and have failed to account for the detrimental impact of high temperatures on milling quality outcomes, which ultimately determine edible (marketable rice yield and market value. Using genotype specific rice yield and milling quality data on six common rice varieties from Arkansas, USA, combined with on-site, half-hourly and daily temperature observations, we show a nonlinear effect of high-temperature stress exposure on yield and milling quality. A 1 °C increase in average growing season temperature reduces paddy yield by 6.2%, total milled rice yield by 7.1% to 8.0%, head rice yield by 9.0% to 13.8%, and total milling revenue by 8.1% to 11.0%, across genotypes. Our results indicate that failure to account for changes in milling quality leads to understatement of the impacts of high temperatures on rice production outcomes. These dramatic losses result from reduced paddy yield and increased percentages of chalky and broken kernels, which together decrease the quantity and market value of milled rice. Recently published estimates show paddy yield reductions of up to 10% across the major rice-producing regions of South and Southeast Asia due to rising temperatures. The results of our study suggest that the often-cited 10% figure underestimates the economic implications of climate change for rice producers, thus potentially threatening future food security for global rice producers and consumers.

  11. Citation analysis may severely underestimate the impact of clinical research as compared to basic research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Eck, Nees Jan; Waltman, Ludo; van Raan, Anthony F J; Klautz, Robert J M; Peul, Wilco C

    2013-01-01

    Citation analysis has become an important tool for research performance assessment in the medical sciences. However, different areas of medical research may have considerably different citation practices, even within the same medical field. Because of this, it is unclear to what extent citation-based bibliometric indicators allow for valid comparisons between research units active in different areas of medical research. A visualization methodology is introduced that reveals differences in citation practices between medical research areas. The methodology extracts terms from the titles and abstracts of a large collection of publications and uses these terms to visualize the structure of a medical field and to indicate how research areas within this field differ from each other in their average citation impact. Visualizations are provided for 32 medical fields, defined based on journal subject categories in the Web of Science database. The analysis focuses on three fields: Cardiac & cardiovascular systems, Clinical neurology, and Surgery. In each of these fields, there turn out to be large differences in citation practices between research areas. Low-impact research areas tend to focus on clinical intervention research, while high-impact research areas are often more oriented on basic and diagnostic research. Popular bibliometric indicators, such as the h-index and the impact factor, do not correct for differences in citation practices between medical fields. These indicators therefore cannot be used to make accurate between-field comparisons. More sophisticated bibliometric indicators do correct for field differences but still fail to take into account within-field heterogeneity in citation practices. As a consequence, the citation impact of clinical intervention research may be substantially underestimated in comparison with basic and diagnostic research.

  12. Reanalysis data underestimate significant changes in growing season weather in Kazakhstan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wright, C K; Henebry, G M [Geographic Information Science Center of Excellence (GIScCE), South Dakota State University, Brookings, SD (United States); De Beurs, K M [Department of Geography, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg, VA (United States); Akhmadieva, Z K [Kazakhstan Scientific Research Institute of Ecology and Climate, Ministry of Environment Protection of the Republic of Kazakhstan, Astana (Kazakhstan); Groisman, P Y, E-mail: Geoffrey.Henebry@sdstate.ed [National Climatic Data Center, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Asheville, NC (United States)

    2009-10-15

    We present time series analyses of recently compiled climate station data which allowed us to assess contemporary trends in growing season weather across Kazakhstan as drivers of a significant decline in growing season normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) recently observed by satellite remote sensing across much of Central Asia. We used a robust nonparametric time series analysis method, the seasonal Kendall trend test to analyze georeferenced time series of accumulated growing season precipitation (APPT) and accumulated growing degree-days (AGDD). Over the period 2000-2006 we found geographically extensive, statistically significant (p<0.05) decreasing trends in APPT and increasing trends in AGDD. The temperature trends were especially apparent during the warm season and coincided with precipitation decreases in northwest Kazakhstan, indicating that pervasive drought conditions and higher temperature excursions were the likely drivers of NDVI declines observed in Kazakhstan over the same period. We also compared the APPT and AGDD trends at individual stations with results from trend analysis of gridded monthly precipitation data from the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) Full Data Reanalysis v4 and gridded daily near surface air temperature from the National Centers for Climate Prediction Reanalysis v2 (NCEP R2). We found substantial deviation between the station and the reanalysis trends, suggesting that GPCC and NCEP data substantially underestimate the geographic extent of recent drought in Kazakhstan. Although gridded climate products offer many advantages in ease of use and complete coverage, our findings for Kazakhstan should serve as a caveat against uncritical use of GPCC and NCEP reanalysis data and demonstrate the importance of compiling and standardizing daily climate data from data-sparse regions like Central Asia.

  13. Reanalysis data underestimate significant changes in growing season weather in Kazakhstan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wright, C K; Henebry, G M; De Beurs, K M; Akhmadieva, Z K; Groisman, P Y

    2009-01-01

    We present time series analyses of recently compiled climate station data which allowed us to assess contemporary trends in growing season weather across Kazakhstan as drivers of a significant decline in growing season normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) recently observed by satellite remote sensing across much of Central Asia. We used a robust nonparametric time series analysis method, the seasonal Kendall trend test to analyze georeferenced time series of accumulated growing season precipitation (APPT) and accumulated growing degree-days (AGDD). Over the period 2000-2006 we found geographically extensive, statistically significant (p<0.05) decreasing trends in APPT and increasing trends in AGDD. The temperature trends were especially apparent during the warm season and coincided with precipitation decreases in northwest Kazakhstan, indicating that pervasive drought conditions and higher temperature excursions were the likely drivers of NDVI declines observed in Kazakhstan over the same period. We also compared the APPT and AGDD trends at individual stations with results from trend analysis of gridded monthly precipitation data from the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) Full Data Reanalysis v4 and gridded daily near surface air temperature from the National Centers for Climate Prediction Reanalysis v2 (NCEP R2). We found substantial deviation between the station and the reanalysis trends, suggesting that GPCC and NCEP data substantially underestimate the geographic extent of recent drought in Kazakhstan. Although gridded climate products offer many advantages in ease of use and complete coverage, our findings for Kazakhstan should serve as a caveat against uncritical use of GPCC and NCEP reanalysis data and demonstrate the importance of compiling and standardizing daily climate data from data-sparse regions like Central Asia.

  14. Infections after fiducial marker implantation for prostate radiotherapy: are we underestimating the risks?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Loh, Jasmin; Baker, Katie; Sridharan, Swetha; Greer, Peter; Wratten, Chris; Capp, Anne; Gallagher, Sarah; Martin, Jarad

    2015-01-01

    The use of gold fiducial markers (FM) for prostate image-guided radiotherapy (IGRT) is standard practice. Published literature suggests low rates of serious infection following this procedure of 0-1.3%, but this may be an underestimate. We aim to report on the infection incidence and severity associated with the use of transrectally implanted intraprostatic gold FM. Three hundred and fifty-nine patients who underwent transrectal FM insertion between January 2012 and December 2013 were assessed retrospectively via a self-reported questionnaire. All had standard oral fluoroquinolone antibiotic prophylaxis. The patients were asked about infective symptoms and the treatment received including antibiotics and/or related hospital admissions. Potential infective events were confirmed through medical records. 285 patients (79.4%) completed the questionnaire. 77 (27.0%) patients experienced increased urinary frequency and dysuria, and 33 patients (11.6%) reported episodes of chills and fevers after the procedure. 22 patients (7.7%) reported receiving antibiotics for urinary infection and eight patients (2.8%) reported hospital admission for urosepsis related to the procedure. The overall rate of symptomatic infection with FM implantation in this study is 7.7%, with one third requiring hospital admission. This exceeds the reported rates in other FM implantation series, but is in keeping with the larger prostate biopsy literature. Given the higher than expected complication rate, a risk-adaptive approach may be helpful. Where higher accuracy is important such as stereotactic prostate radiotherapy, the benefits of FM may still outweigh the risks. For others, a non-invasive approach for prostate IGRT such as cone-beam CT could be considered. The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13014-015-0347-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users

  15. Death certificates underestimate infections as proximal causes of death in the U.S.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sushant Govindan

    Full Text Available Death certificates are a primary data source for assessing the population burden of diseases; however, there are concerns regarding their accuracy. Diagnosis-Related Group (DRG coding of a terminal hospitalization may provide an alternative view. We analyzed the rate and patterns of disagreement between death certificate data and hospital claims for patients who died during an inpatient hospitalization.We studied respondents from the Health and Retirement Study (a nationally representative sample of older Americans who had an inpatient death documented in the linked Medicare claims from 1993-2007. Causes of death abstracted from death certificates were aggregated to the standard National Center for Health Statistics List of 50 Rankable Causes of Death. Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS-DRGs were manually aggregated into a parallel classification. We then compared the two systems via 2×2, focusing on concordance. Our primary analysis was agreement between the two data sources, assessed with percentages and Cohen's kappa statistic.2074 inpatient deaths were included in our analysis. 36.6% of death certificate cause-of-death codes agreed with the reason for the terminal hospitalization in the Medicare claims at the broad category level; when re-classifying DRGs without clear alignment as agreements, the concordance only increased to 61%. Overall Kappa was 0.21, or "fair." Death certificates in this cohort redemonstrated the conventional top 3 causes of death as diseases of the heart, malignancy, and cerebrovascular disease. However, hospitalization claims data showed infections, diseases of the heart, and cerebrovascular disease as the most common diagnoses for the same terminal hospitalizations.There are significant differences between Medicare claims and death certificate data in assigning cause of death for inpatients. The importance of infections as proximal causes of death is underestimated by current death certificate

  16. Discounting the duration of bolus exposure in impedance testing underestimates acid reflux.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vikneswaran, Namasivayam; Murray, Joseph A

    2016-06-08

    Combined impedance-pH testing (MII) allows for detection of reflux episodes regardless of pH. However impedance-based diagnosis of reflux may not routinely account for duration of the reflux episode. We hypothesize that impedance testing may be less sensitive than pH-testing in detecting acid reflux off therapy as a result of discounting duration of exposure. Baseline characteristics and reflux parameters of MII studies performed off-anti-secretory medications were analyzed. Studies on acid suppressive medication and those with recording times less than 20 h or low baseline impedance were excluded. A total of 73 consecutive MII studies were analyzed of which 31 MII studies had elevated acid exposure while 16 were abnormal by impedance criteria. MII testing off-therapy was more likely to be abnormal by pH criteria (percent time pH reflux):[42 vs 22 % (p =0.02)]. Acid exposure (percent time pH acid reflux episodes [42 vs 34 % (p acid clearance time (pH-detected) was significantly longer than median bolus clearance time (impedance-detected) in the total [98.7 s vs 12.6 s (p acid clearance time (pH-detected) and the median bolus clearance time (impedance-detected) was significantly higher in the recumbent position compared to the upright position [11. vs 5.3 (p = 0.01)]. Ambulatory impedance testing underestimates acid reflux compared to esophageal acid exposure by discounting the prolonged period of mucosal contact with each acid reflux episode, particularly in the recumbent position.

  17. Underestimation of species richness in neotropical frogs revealed by mtDNA analyses.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antoine Fouquet

    2007-10-01

    Full Text Available Amphibians are rapidly vanishing. At the same time, it is most likely that the number of amphibian species is highly underestimated. Recent DNA barcoding work has attempted to define a threshold between intra- and inter-specific genetic distances to help identify candidate species. In groups with high extinction rates and poorly known species boundaries, like amphibians, such tools may provide a way to rapidly evaluate species richness.Here we analyse published and new 16S rDNA sequences from 60 frog species of Amazonia-Guianas to obtain a minimum estimate of the number of undescribed species in this region. We combined isolation by distance, phylogenetic analyses, and comparison of molecular distances to evaluate threshold values for the identification of candidate species among these frogs.In most cases, geographically distant populations belong to genetically highly distinct lineages that could be considered as candidate new species. This was not universal among the taxa studied and thus widespread species of Neotropical frogs really do exist, contrary to previous assumptions. Moreover, the many instances of paraphyly and the wide overlap between distributions of inter- and intra-specific distances reinforce the hypothesis that many cryptic species remain to be described. In our data set, pairwise genetic distances below 0.02 are strongly correlated with geographical distances. This correlation remains statistically significant until genetic distance is 0.05, with no such relation thereafter. This suggests that for higher distances allopatric and sympatric cryptic species prevail. Based on our analyses, we propose a more inclusive pairwise genetic distance of 0.03 between taxa to target lineages that could correspond to candidate species.Using this approach, we identify 129 candidate species, two-fold greater than the 60 species included in the current study. This leads to estimates of around 170 to 460 frog taxa unrecognized in Amazonia

  18. Hormone-induced rat model of polycystic ovary syndrome: A systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noroozzadeh, Mahsa; Behboudi-Gandevani, Samira; Zadeh-Vakili, Azita; Ramezani Tehrani, Fahimeh

    2017-12-15

    Despite polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) being one of the most common endocrine disorders affecting reproductive-aged women, the etiopathogenesis and mechanisms of this syndrome remain unclear. Considering the ethical limitations in human studies, animal models that reflect many features of PCOS are crucial resources to investigate this syndrome. We aimed to introduce the most suitable rat model of PCOS that closely mimics the endocrine, ovarian and metabolic disturbances of human PCOS phenotype, while maintaining normal reproductive system morphology in adulthood, in order to further more detailed investigations about PCOS. We searched Pubmed, Science direct, and Web of science between 1990 and 2016, for relevant English manuscripts, using keywords including the "Polycystic Ovary Syndrome AND Rat Model" to generate a subset of citations relevant to our research. Included were those articles that compared at least both ovarian histology or estrous cycle and reproductive hormonal profiles in hormone-induced rat model of PCOS and controls. Differences in the findings between hormone-induced PCOS rats appear to be a result of the degree of transplacental transfer of the steroid administered into the fetus, dose and type of hormone, route of administration and timing and duration of exposure. We conclude that prenatal hormone-induced rat model with a lower dose and shorter time of exposure during the critical period of fetal development that exhibits endocrine, ovarian and metabolic disturbances similar to PCOS in women, while maintaining normal reproductive system morphology in adulthood is more suitable than postnatal hormone-induced rat model to facilitate studies regarding PCOS. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. The Effect of ISO 9001 and the EFQM Model on Improving Hospital Performance: A Systematic Review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yousefinezhadi, Taraneh; Mohamadi, Efat; Safari Palangi, Hossein; Akbari Sari, Ali

    2015-12-01

    This study aimed to explore the effect of the International Organization for Standardization (ISO) ISO 9001 standard and the European foundation for quality management (EFQM) model on improving hospital performance. PubMed, Embase and the Cochrane Library databases were searched. In addition, Elsevier and Springer were searched as main publishers in the field of health sciences. We included empirical studies with any design that had used ISO 9001 or the EFQM model to improve the quality of healthcare. Data were collected and tabulated into a data extraction sheet that was specifically designed for this study. The collected data included authors' names, country, year of publication, intervention, improvement aims, setting, length of program, study design, and outcomes. Seven out of the 121 studies that were retrieved met the inclusion criteria. Three studies assessed the EFQM model and four studies assessed the ISO 9001 standard. Use of the EFQM model increased the degree of patient satisfaction and the number of hospital admissions and reduced the average length of stay, the delay on the surgical waiting list, and the number of emergency re-admissions. ISO 9001 also increased the degree of patient satisfaction and patient safety, increased cost-effectiveness, improved the hospital admissions process, and reduced the percentage of unscheduled returns to the hospital. Generally, there is a lack of robust and high quality empirical evidence regarding the effects of ISO 9001 and the EFQM model on the quality care provided by and the performance of hospitals. However, the limited evidence shows that ISO 9001 and the EFQM model might improve hospital performance.

  20. Decision modelling of non-pharmacological interventions for individuals with dementia: a systematic review of methodologies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sopina, Liza; Sørensen, Jan

    2018-01-01

    alongside an RCT without additional modelling. Results: Two primary, five secondary and three tertiary prevention intervention studies were identified and reviewed. Five studies utilised Markov models, with others using discrete event, regression-based simulation, and decision tree approaches. A number...... of challenging methodological issues were identified, including the use of MMSE-score as the main outcome measure, limited number of strategies compared, restricted time horizons, and limited or dated data on dementia onset, progression and mortality. Only one of the three tertiary prevention studies explicitly...

  1. In-Service Training of Teachers in Multicultural Urban Schools: A Systematic Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nickolai-Mays, Susanne; Davis, Jerry L.

    1986-01-01

    Presents seven guidelines for developing effective teacher in-service training programs. Describes a training model for multicultural urban schools which addresses these topics: instructional methods; curriculum; interpersonal relations in the classroom; classroom management and discipline; parent-teacher-student involvement; and multicultural…

  2. Clinical prediction models for bronchopulmonary dysplasia: a systematic review and external validation study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Onland, Wes; Debray, Thomas P.; Laughon, Matthew M.; Miedema, Martijn; Cools, Filip; Askie, Lisa M.; Asselin, Jeanette M.; Calvert, Sandra A.; Courtney, Sherry E.; Dani, Carlo; Durand, David J.; Marlow, Neil; Peacock, Janet L.; Pillow, J. Jane; Soll, Roger F.; Thome, Ulrich H.; Truffert, Patrick; Schreiber, Michael D.; van Reempts, Patrick; Vendettuoli, Valentina; Vento, Giovanni; van Kaam, Anton H.; Moons, Karel G.; Offringa, Martin

    2013-01-01

    Bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD) is a common complication of preterm birth. Very different models using clinical parameters at an early postnatal age to predict BPD have been developed with little extensive quantitative validation. The objective of this study is to review and validate clinical

  3. Models and theories in studies on educating and counseling children about physical health: a systematic review.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Theunissen, N.C.M.; Tates, K.

    2004-01-01

    The aim of this review is to gain a comprehensive view on the theories and models referred to in studies on educating and counseling children about physical health. A computer search was conducted using PubMed Medline, and Silverplatter Webspirs Psycinfo. Original studies, reviews, and theoretical

  4. MCD Process Model: A Systematic Approach to Curriculum Development in Black Studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Howard J.

    1986-01-01

    Holds that Black Studies programs have had problems surviving because of (1) resistance to curriculum change in colleges and universities, (2) their lack of supporters in positions of administrative power, and (3) lack of an organized, conceptual approach to developing and implementing a Black Studies curriculum. Presents a model designed to…

  5. Systematic evaluation of fault trees using real-time model checker UPPAAL

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cha, Sungdeok; Son, Hanseong; Yoo, Junbeom; Jee, Eunkyung; Seong, Poong Hyun

    2003-01-01

    Fault tree analysis, the most widely used safety analysis technique in industry, is often applied manually. Although techniques such as cutset analysis or probabilistic analysis can be applied on the fault tree to derive further insights, they are inadequate in locating flaws when failure modes in fault tree nodes are incorrectly identified or when causal relationships among failure modes are inaccurately specified. In this paper, we demonstrate that model checking technique is a powerful tool that can formally validate the accuracy of fault trees. We used a real-time model checker UPPAAL because the system we used as the case study, nuclear power emergency shutdown software named Wolsong SDS2, has real-time requirements. By translating functional requirements written in SCR-style tabular notation into timed automata, two types of properties were verified: (1) if failure mode described in a fault tree node is consistent with the system's behavioral model; and (2) whether or not a fault tree node has been accurately decomposed. A group of domain engineers with detailed technical knowledge of Wolsong SDS2 and safety analysis techniques developed fault tree used in the case study. However, model checking technique detected subtle ambiguities present in the fault tree

  6. A Systematic Approach for Identifying Level-1 Error Covariance Structures in Latent Growth Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ding, Cherng G.; Jane, Ten-Der; Wu, Chiu-Hui; Lin, Hang-Rung; Shen, Chih-Kang

    2017-01-01

    It has been pointed out in the literature that misspecification of the level-1 error covariance structure in latent growth modeling (LGM) has detrimental impacts on the inferences about growth parameters. Since correct covariance structure is difficult to specify by theory, the identification needs to rely on a specification search, which,…

  7. A Systematic and Numerically Efficient Procedure for Stable Dynamic Model Inversion of LTI Systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    George, K.; Verhaegen, M.; Scherpen, J.M.A.

    1999-01-01

    Output tracking via the novel Stable Dynamic model Inversion (SDI) technique, applicable to non-minimum phase systems, and which naturally takes into account the presence of noise in target time histories, is considered here. We are motivated by the typical need to replicate time signals in the

  8. School Direct: A Hastily Constructed Model or a Systematically Designed Campaign?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelly, Clare; Pitfield, Maggie

    2013-01-01

    This article examines School Direct, a model of initial teacher education (ITE) in England, recently introduced by the coalition government and based on a paradigm of teaching as a craft to be learned as an apprenticeship, significantly reducing and in some cases removing the influence of higher education. The history of the move away from…

  9. Accuracy and bias of ICT self-efficacy: an empirical study into students' over- and underestimation of their ICT competences

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Aesaert, K.; Voogt, J.; Kuiper, E.; van Braak, J.

    2017-01-01

    Most studies on the assessment of ICT competences use measures of ICT self-efficacy. These studies are often accused that they suffer from self-reported bias, i.e. students can over- and/or underestimate their ICT competences. As such, taking bias and accuracy of ICT self-efficacy into account,

  10. Disguised Distress in Children and Adolescents "Flying under the Radar": Why Psychological Problems Are Underestimated and How Schools Must Respond

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flett, Gordon L.; Hewitt, Paul L.

    2013-01-01

    It is now recognized that there is a very high prevalence of psychological disorders among children and adolescents and relatively few receive psychological treatment. In the current article, we present the argument that levels of distress and dysfunction among young people are substantially underestimated and the prevalence of psychological…

  11. Non-differential underestimation may cause a threshold effect of exposure to appear as a dose-response relationship

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verkerk, P. H.; Buitendijk, S. E.

    1992-01-01

    It is generally believed that non-differential misclassification will lead to a bias toward the null-value. However, using one graphical and one numerical example, we show that in situations where underestimation more than overestimation is the problem, non-differential misclassification may lead to

  12. Assimilating satellite soil moisture into rainfall-runoff modelling: towards a systematic study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Massari, Christian; Tarpanelli, Angelica; Brocca, Luca; Moramarco, Tommaso

    2015-04-01

    Soil moisture is the main factor for the repartition of the mass and energy fluxes between the land surface and the atmosphere thus playing a fundamental role in the hydrological cycle. Indeed, soil moisture represents the initial condition of rainfall-runoff modelling that determines the flood response of a catchment. Different initial soil moisture conditions can discriminate between catastrophic and minor effects of a given rainfall event. Therefore, improving the estimation of initial soil moisture conditions will reduce uncertainties in early warning flood forecasting models addressing the mitigation of flood hazard. In recent years, satellite soil moisture products have become available with fine spatial-temporal resolution and a good accuracy. Therefore, a number of studies have been published in which the impact of the assimilation of satellite soil moisture data into rainfall-runoff modelling is investigated. Unfortunately, data assimilation involves a series of assumptions and choices that significantly affect the final result. Given a satellite soil moisture observation, a rainfall-runoff model and a data assimilation technique, an improvement or a deterioration of discharge predictions can be obtained depending on the choices made in the data assimilation procedure. Consequently, large discrepancies have been obtained in the studies published so far likely due to the differences in the implementation of the data assimilation technique. On this basis, a comprehensive and robust procedure for the assimilation of satellite soil moisture data into rainfall-runoff modelling is developed here and applied to six subcatchment of the Upper Tiber River Basin for which high-quality hydrometeorological hourly observations are available in the period 1989-2013. The satellite soil moisture product used in this study is obtained from the Advanced SCATterometer (ASCAT) onboard Metop-A satellite and it is available since 2007. The MISDc ("Modello Idrologico Semi

  13. A fast and systematic procedure to develop dynamic models of bioprocesses: application to microalgae cultures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Mailier

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to report on the development of a procedure for inferring black-box, yet biologically interpretable, dynamic models of bioprocesses based on sets of measurements of a few external components (biomass, substrates, and products of interest. The procedure has three main steps: (a the determination of the number of macroscopic biological reactions linking the measured components; (b the estimation of a first reaction scheme, which has interesting mathematical properties, but might lack a biological interpretation; and (c the "projection" (or transformation of this reaction scheme onto a biologically-consistent scheme. The advantage of the method is that it allows the fast prototyping of models for the culture of microorganisms that are not well documented. The good performance of the third step of the method is demonstrated by application to an example of microalgal culture.

  14. Anti-tumor effects of metformin in animal models of hepatocellular carcinoma: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan Li

    Full Text Available Several studies have reported that metformin can reduce the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC in diabetes patients. However, the direct anti-HCC effects of metformin have hardly been studied in patients, but have been extensively investigated in animal models of HCC. We therefore performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of animal studies evaluating the effects of metformin on HCC.We collected the relevant studies by searching EMBASE, Medline (OvidSP, Web of Science, Scopus, PubMed Publisher, and Google Scholar. Studies were included according to the following inclusion criteria: HCC, animal study, and metformin intervention. Study quality was assessed using SYRCLE's risk of bias tool. A meta-analysis was performed for the outcome measures: tumor growth (tumor volume, weight and size, tumor number and incidence.The search resulted in 573 references, of which 13 could be included in the review and 12 included in the meta-analysis. The study characteristics of the included studies varied considerably. Two studies used rats, while the others used mice. Only one study used female animals, nine used male, and three studies didn't mention the gender of animals in their experiments. The quality of the included studies was low to moderate based on the assessment of their risk of bias. The meta-analysis showed that metformin significantly inhibited the growth of HCC tumour (SMD -2.20[-2.96,-1.43]; n=16, but no significant effect on the number of tumors (SMD-1.05[-2.13,0.03]; n=5 or the incidence of HCC was observed (RR 0.62[0.33,1.16]; n=6. To investigate the potential sources of significant heterogeneities found in outcome of tumor growth (I2=81%, subgroup analyses of scales of growth measures and of types of animal models used were performed.Metformin appears to have a direct anti-HCC effect in animal models. Although the intrinsic limitations of animal studies, this systematic review could provide an important reference for future

  15. [Pay for performance in dental care: A systematic narrative review of quality P4P models in dental care].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chenot, Regine

    2017-11-01

    Pay for performance (P4P) links reimbursement to the achievement of quality objectives. Experiences with P4P instruments and studies on their effects are available for the inpatient sector. A systematic narrative review brings together findings concerning the use and the effects of P4P, especially in dental care. A systematic literature search in PubMed and the Cochrane Library for reimbursement models using quality indicators provided 77 publications. Inclusion criteria were: year of publication not older than 2007, dental sector, models of quality-oriented remuneration, quality of care, quality indicators. 27 publications met the inclusion criteria and were evaluated with regard to the instruments and effects of P4P. The database search was supplemented by a free search on the Internet as well as a search in indicator databases and portals. The results of the included studies were extracted and summarized narratively. 27 studies were included in the review. Performance-oriented remuneration is an instrument of quality competition. In principle, P4P is embedded in an existing remuneration system, i.e., it does not occur in isolation. In the United States, England and Scandinavia, models are currently being tested for quality-oriented remuneration in dental care, based on quality indicators. The studies identified by the literature search are very heterogeneous and do not yield comparable endpoints. Difficulties are seen in the reproducibility of the quality of dental care with regard to certain characteristics which still have to be defined as quality-promoting properties. Risk selection cannot be ruled out, which may have an impact on structural quality (access to care, coordination). There were no long-term effects of P4P on the quality of care. In the short and medium term, adverse effects on the participants' motivation as well as shifting effects towards the private sector are described. A prerequisite for the functioning of P4P is the definition of clear

  16. β4 systematics in rare-earth and actinide nuclei: sdg interacting boson model description

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Devi, Y.D.; Kota, V.K.B.

    1992-01-01

    The observed variation of hexadecupole deformation parameter β 4 with mass number A in rare-earth and actinide nuclei is studied in the sdg interacting boson model (IBM) using single j-shell Otsuka-Arima-Iachello mapped and IBM-2 to IBM-1 projected hexadecupole transition operator together with SU sdg (3) and SU sdg (5) coherent states. The SU sdg (3) limit is found to provide a good description of data

  17. An evaluation of a model for the systematic documentation of hospital based health promotion activities: results from a multicentre study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tønnesen, Hanne; Christensen, Mette E; Groene, Oliver

    2007-01-01

    The first step of handling health promotion (HP) in Diagnosis Related Groups (DRGs) is a systematic documentation and registration of the activities in the medical records. So far the possibility and tradition for systematic registration of clinical HP activities in the medical records and in pat......The first step of handling health promotion (HP) in Diagnosis Related Groups (DRGs) is a systematic documentation and registration of the activities in the medical records. So far the possibility and tradition for systematic registration of clinical HP activities in the medical records...

  18. Effect of a high-fat diet and alcohol on cutaneous repair: A systematic review of murine experimental models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daiane Figueiredo Rosa

    Full Text Available Chronic alcohol intake associated with an inappropriate diet can cause lesions in multiple organs and tissues and complicate the tissue repair process. In a systematic review, we analyzed the relevance of alcohol and high fat consumption to cutaneous and repair, compared the main methodologies used and the most important parameters tested. Preclinical investigations with murine models were assessed to analyze whether the current evidence support clinical trials.The studies were selected from MEDLINE/PubMed and Scopus databases, according to Fig 1. All 15 identified articles had their data extracted. The reporting bias was investigated according to the ARRIVE (Animal Research: Reporting of in Vivo Experiments strategy.In general, animals offered a high-fat diet and alcohol showed decreased cutaneous wound closure, delayed skin contraction, chronic inflammation and incomplete re-epithelialization.In further studies, standardized experimental design is needed to establish comparable study groups and advance the overall knowledge background, facilitating data translatability from animal models to human clinical conditions.

  19. Religion and Spirituality’s Influences on HIV Syndemics Among MSM: A Systematic Review and Conceptual Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parsons, Jeffrey T.

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents a systematic review of the quantitative HIV research that assessed the relationships between religion, spirituality, HIV syndemics, and individual HIV syndemics-related health conditions (e.g. depression, substance abuse, HIV risk) among men who have sex with men (MSM) in the United States. No quantitative studies were found that assessed the relationships between HIV syndemics, religion, and spirituality. Nine studies, with 13 statistical analyses, were found that examined the relationships between individual HIV syndemics-related health conditions, religion, and spirituality. Among the 13 analyses, religion and spirituality were found to have mixed relationships with HIV syndemics-related health conditions (6 nonsignificant associations; 5 negative associations; 2 positive associations). Given the overall lack of inclusion of religion and spirituality in HIV syndemics research, a conceptual model that hypothesizes the potential interactions of religion and spirituality with HIV syndemics-related health conditions is presented. The implications of the model for MSM’s health are outlined. PMID:26319130

  20. Systematic analysis of neutron yields from thick targets bombarded by heavy ions and protons with moving source model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kato, Takashi; Kurosawa, Tadahiro; Nakamura, Takashi E-mail: nakamura@cyric.tohoku.ac.jp

    2002-03-21

    A simple phenomenological analysis using the moving source model has been performed on the neutron energy spectra produced by bombarding thick targets with high energy heavy ions which have been systematically measured at the Heavy-Ion Medical Accelerator (HIMAC) facility (located in Chiba, Japan) of the National Institute of Radiological Sciences (NIRS). For the bombardment of both heavy ions and protons in the energy region of 100-500 MeV per nucleon, the moving source model incorporating the knock-on process could be generally successful in reproducing the measured neutron spectra within a factor of two margin of accuracy. This phenomenological analytical equation is expressed having several parameters as functions of atomic number Z{sub p}, mass number A{sub p}, energy per nucleon E{sub p} for projectile, and atomic number Z{sub T}, mass number A{sub T} for target. By inputting these basic data for projectile and target into this equation we can easily estimate the secondary neutron energy spectra at an emission angle of 0-90 deg. for bombardment with heavy ions and protons in the aforementioned energy region. This method will be quite useful to estimate the neutron source term in the neutron shielding design of high energy proton and heavy ion accelerators.

  1. Animal-Assisted Therapies and Dementia: A Systematic Mapping Review Using the Lived Environment Life Quality (LELQ) Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Wendy; Fields, Beth; Rose, Michelle; McLure, Merinda

    The authors mapped the literature on animal-assisted therapies (AATs) and institutionalized adults with dementia onto the Lived Environment Life Quality (LELQ) Model as a guide for future services and research. Refereed literature addressing AATs and institutionalized people with dementia was comprehensively gathered, described, categorized, and synthesized in this systematic mapping review. From 1,342 screened records, the authors included 10 research articles that incorporated dogs in therapy for institutionalized adults with dementia. These canine-assisted therapies offered occupational opportunities and environmental supports conducive to experiences of relative well-being, occupational engagement, and optimal functioning. The findings offer proof of the concept that canine-assisted therapies are feasible and can elicit positive quality-of-life experiences in institutionalized people with dementia. Researchers and practitioners need to elucidate the theoretical foundations of AATs. The LELQ Model may serve as a guide for client-centered, occupation-focused, and ecologically valid approaches to animal-assisted occupational therapy. Copyright © 2017 by the American Occupational Therapy Association, Inc.

  2. Efficacy of deferoxamine in animal models of intracerebral hemorrhage: a systematic review and stratified meta-analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Han-Jin Cui

    Full Text Available Intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH is a subtype of stroke associated with high morbidity and mortality rates. No proven treatments are available for this condition. Iron-mediated free radical injury is associated with secondary damage following ICH. Deferoxamine (DFX, a ferric-iron chelator, is a candidate drug for the treatment of ICH. We performed a systematic review of studies involving the administration of DFX following ICH. In total, 20 studies were identified that described the efficacy of DFX in animal models of ICH and assessed changes in the brain water content, neurobehavioral score, or both. DFX reduced the brain water content by 85.7% in animal models of ICH (-0.86, 95% CI: -.48- -0.23; P < 0.01; 23 comparisons, and improved the neurobehavioral score by -1.08 (95% CI: -1.23- -0.92; P < 0.01; 62 comparisons. DFX was most efficacious when administered 2-4 h after ICH at a dose of 10-50 mg/kg depending on species, and this beneficial effect remained for up to 24 h postinjury. The efficacy was higher with phenobarbital anesthesia, intramuscular injection, and lysed erythrocyte infusion, and in Fischer 344 rats or aged animals. Overall, although DFX was found to be effective in experimental ICH, additional confirmation is needed due to possible publication bias, poor study quality, and the limited number of studies conducting clinical trials.

  3. The selection, optimization, and compensation model in the work context : A systematic review and meta-analysis of two decades of research

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Moghimi, Darya; Zacher, Hannes; Scheibe, Susanne; Van Yperen, Nico W.

    Over the past two decades, the selection, optimization, and compensation (SOC) model has been applied in the work context to investigate antecedents and outcomes of employees’ use of action regulation strategies. We systematically review, meta-analyze, and critically discuss the literature on SOC

  4. Forecasting optimal solar energy supply in Jiangsu Province (China): a systematic approach using hybrid of weather and energy forecast models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Xiuli; Asante Antwi, Henry; Yiranbon, Ethel

    2014-01-01

    The idea of aggregating information is clearly recognizable in the daily lives of all entities whether as individuals or as a group, since time immemorial corporate organizations, governments, and individuals as economic agents aggregate information to formulate decisions. Energy planning represents an investment-decision problem where information needs to be aggregated from credible sources to predict both demand and supply of energy. To do this there are varying methods ranging from the use of portfolio theory to managing risk and maximizing portfolio performance under a variety of unpredictable economic outcomes. The future demand for energy and need to use solar energy in order to avoid future energy crisis in Jiangsu province in China require energy planners in the province to abandon their reliance on traditional, "least-cost," and stand-alone technology cost estimates and instead evaluate conventional and renewable energy supply on the basis of a hybrid of optimization models in order to ensure effective and reliable supply. Our task in this research is to propose measures towards addressing optimal solar energy forecasting by employing a systematic optimization approach based on a hybrid of weather and energy forecast models. After giving an overview of the sustainable energy issues in China, we have reviewed and classified the various models that existing studies have used to predict the influences of the weather influences and the output of solar energy production units. Further, we evaluate the performance of an exemplary ensemble model which combines the forecast output of two popular statistical prediction methods using a dynamic weighting factor.

  5. Model-based economic evaluations in smoking cessation and their transferability to new contexts: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berg, Marrit L; Cheung, Kei Long; Hiligsmann, Mickaël; Evers, Silvia; de Kinderen, Reina J A; Kulchaitanaroaj, Puttarin; Pokhrel, Subhash

    2017-06-01

    To identify different types of models used in economic evaluations of smoking cessation, analyse the quality of the included models examining their attributes and ascertain their transferability to a new context. A systematic review of the literature on the economic evaluation of smoking cessation interventions published between 1996 and April 2015, identified via Medline, EMBASE, National Health Service (NHS) Economic Evaluation Database (NHS EED), Health Technology Assessment (HTA). The checklist-based quality of the included studies and transferability scores was based on the European Network of Health Economic Evaluation Databases (EURONHEED) criteria. Studies that were not in smoking cessation, not original research, not a model-based economic evaluation, that did not consider adult population and not from a high-income country were excluded. Among the 64 economic evaluations included in the review, the state-transition Markov model was the most frequently used method (n = 30/64), with quality adjusted life years (QALY) being the most frequently used outcome measure in a life-time horizon. A small number of the included studies (13 of 64) were eligible for EURONHEED transferability checklist. The overall transferability scores ranged from 0.50 to 0.97, with an average score of 0.75. The average score per section was 0.69 (range = 0.35-0.92). The relative transferability of the studies could not be established due to a limitation present in the EURONHEED method. All existing economic evaluations in smoking cessation lack in one or more key study attributes necessary to be fully transferable to a new context. © 2017 The Authors. Addiction published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society for the Study of Addiction.

  6. Assessment of perioperative stress in colorectal cancer by use of in vitro cell models: a systematic review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tove Kirkegaard

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Background The perioperative period is important for patient outcome. Colorectal cancer surgery can lead to metastatic disease due to release of disseminated tumor cells and the induction of surgical stress response. To explore the overall effects on surgically-induced changes in serum composition, in vitro model systems are useful. Methods A systematic search in PubMed and EMBASE was performed to identify studies describing in vitro models used to investigate cancer cell growth/proliferation, cell migration, cell invasion and cell death of serum taken pre- and postoperatively from patients undergoing colorectal tumor resection. Results Two authors (MG and TK independently reviewed 984 studies and identified five studies, which fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Disagreements were solved by discussion. All studies investigated cell proliferation and cell invasion, whereas three studies investigated cell migration, and only one study investigated cell death/apoptosis. One study investigated postoperative peritoneal infection due to anastomotic leak, one study investigated mode of anesthesia (general anesthesia with volatile or intravenous anesthetics, and one study investigated preoperative intervention with granulocyte macrophage colony stimulating factor (GMCSF. In all studies an increased proliferation, cell migration and invasion was demonstrated after surgery. Anesthetics with propofol and intervention with GMCSF significantly reduced postoperative cell proliferation, whereas peritoneal infection enhanced the invasive capability of tumor cells. Conclusion This study suggests that in vitro cell models are useful and reliable tools to explore the effect of surgery on colorectal cancer cell proliferation and metastatic ability. The models should therefore be considered as additional tests to investigate the effects of perioperative interventions.

  7. Models of public-private engagement for health services delivery and financing in Southern Africa: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whyle, Eleanor Beth; Olivier, Jill

    2016-12-01

    In low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), the private sector-including international donors, non-governmental organizations, for-profit providers and traditional healers-plays a significant role in health financing and delivery. The use of the private sector in furthering public health goals is increasingly common. By working with the private sector through public -: private engagement (PPE), states can harness private sector resources to further public health goals. PPE initiatives can take a variety of forms and understanding of these models is limited. This paper presents the results of a Campbell systematic literature review conducted to establish the types and the prevalence of PPE projects for health service delivery and financing in Southern Africa. PPE initiatives identified through the review were categorized according to a PPE typology. The review reveals that the full range of PPE models, eight distinct models, are utilized in the Southern African context. The distribution of the available evidence-including significant gaps in the literature-is discussed, and key considerations for researchers, implementers, and current and potential PPE partners are presented. It was found that the literature is disproportionately representative of PPE initiatives located in South Africa, and of those that involve for-profit partners and international donors. A significant gap in the literature identified through the study is the scarcity of information regarding the relationship between international donors and national governments. This information is key to strengthening these partnerships, improving partnership outcomes and capacitating recipient countries. The need for research that disaggregates PPE models and investigates PPE functioning in context is demonstrated. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press in association with The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  8. Forecasting Optimal Solar Energy Supply in Jiangsu Province (China: A Systematic Approach Using Hybrid of Weather and Energy Forecast Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiuli Zhao

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The idea of aggregating information is clearly recognizable in the daily lives of all entities whether as individuals or as a group, since time immemorial corporate organizations, governments, and individuals as economic agents aggregate information to formulate decisions. Energy planning represents an investment-decision problem where information needs to be aggregated from credible sources to predict both demand and supply of energy. To do this there are varying methods ranging from the use of portfolio theory to managing risk and maximizing portfolio performance under a variety of unpredictable economic outcomes. The future demand for energy and need to use solar energy in order to avoid future energy crisis in Jiangsu province in China require energy planners in the province to abandon their reliance on traditional, “least-cost,” and stand-alone technology cost estimates and instead evaluate conventional and renewable energy supply on the basis of a hybrid of optimization models in order to ensure effective and reliable supply. Our task in this research is to propose measures towards addressing optimal solar energy forecasting by employing a systematic optimization approach based on a hybrid of weather and energy forecast models. After giving an overview of the sustainable energy issues in China, we have reviewed and classified the various models that existing studies have used to predict the influences of the weather influences and the output of solar energy production units. Further, we evaluate the performance of an exemplary ensemble model which combines the forecast output of two popular statistical prediction methods using a dynamic weighting factor.

  9. Telehealth in Schools Using a Systematic Educational Model Based on Fiction Screenplays, Interactive Documentaries, and Three-Dimensional Computer Graphics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miranda, Diogo Julien; Chao, Lung Wen

    2018-03-01

    Preliminary studies suggest the need of a global vision in academic reform, leading to education re-invention. This would include problem-based education using transversal topics, developing of thinking skills, social interaction, and information-processing skills. We aimed to develop a new educational model in health with modular components to be broadcast and applied as a tele-education course. We developed a systematic model based on a "Skills and Goals Matrix" to adapt scientific contents on fictional screenplays, three-dimensional (3D) computer graphics of the human body, and interactive documentaries. We selected 13 topics based on youth vulnerabilities in Brazil to be disseminated through a television show with 15 episodes. We developed scientific content for each theme, naturally inserting it into screenplays, together with 3D sequences and interactive documentaries. The modular structure was then adapted to a distance-learning course. The television show was broadcast on national television for two consecutive years to an estimated audience of 30 million homes, and ever since on an Internet Protocol Television (IPTV) channel. It was also reorganized as a tele-education course for 2 years, reaching 1,180 subscriptions from all 27 Brazilian states, resulting in 240 graduates. Positive results indicate the feasibility, acceptability, and effectiveness of a model of modular entertainment audio-visual productions using health and education integrated concepts. This structure also allowed the model to be interconnected with other sources and applied as tele-education course, educating, informing, and stimulating the behavior change. Future works should reinforce this joint structure of telehealth, communication, and education.

  10. Regularities in hadron systematics, Regge trajectories and a string quark model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chekanov, S.V.; Levchenko, B.B.

    2006-08-01

    An empirical principle for the construction of a linear relationship between the total angular momentum and squared-mass of baryons is proposed. In order to examine linearity of the trajectories, a rigorous least-squares regression analysis was performed. Unlike the standard Regge-Chew-Frautschi approach, the constructed trajectories do not have non-linear behaviour. A similar regularity may exist for lowest-mass mesons. The linear baryonic trajectories are well described by a semi-classical picture based on a spinning relativistic string with tension. The obtained numerical solution of this model was used to extract the (di)quark masses. (orig.)

  11. Pesticide Mixtures, Endocrine Disruption, and Amphibian Declines: Are We Underestimating the Impact?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayes, Tyrone B.; Case, Paola; Chui, Sarah; Chung, Duc; Haeffele, Cathryn; Haston, Kelly; Lee, Melissa; Mai, Vien Phoung; Marjuoa, Youssra; Parker, John; Tsui, Mable

    2006-01-01

    increase in plasma levels of the stress hormone corticosterone. Although it cannot be determined whether all the pesticides in the mixture contribute to these adverse effects or whether some pesticides are effectors, some are enhancers, and some are neutral, the present study revealed that estimating ecological risk and the impact of pesticides on amphibians using studies that examine only single pesticides at high concentrations may lead to gross underestimations of the role of pesticides in amphibian declines. PMID:16818245

  12. Large-scale movements in European badgers: has the tail of the movement kernel been underestimated?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byrne, Andrew W; Quinn, John L; O'Keeffe, James J; Green, Stuart; Sleeman, D Paddy; Martin, S Wayne; Davenport, John

    2014-07-01

    movement distribution is currently underestimated. The implications of this for understanding the spatial ecology of badger populations and for the design of disease intervention strategies are potentially significant. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2014 British Ecological Society.

  13. Systematic identification of yeast proteins extracted into model wine during aging on the yeast lees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rowe, Jeffrey D; Harbertson, James F; Osborne, James P; Freitag, Michael; Lim, Juyun; Bakalinsky, Alan T

    2010-02-24

    Total protein and protein-associated mannan concentrations were measured, and individual proteins were identified during extraction into model wines over 9 months of aging on the yeast lees following completion of fermentations by seven wine strains of Saccharomyces cerevisiae. In aged wines, protein-associated mannan increased about 6-fold (+/-66%), while total protein only increased 2-fold (+/-20%), which resulted in a significantly greater protein-associated mannan/total protein ratio for three strains. A total of 219 proteins were identified among all wine samples taken over the entire time course. Of the 17 "long-lived" proteins detected in all 9 month samples, 13 were cell wall mannoproteins, and four were glycolytic enzymes. Most cytosolic proteins were not detected after 6 months. Native mannosylated yeast invertase was assayed for binding to wine tannin and was found to have a 10-fold lower affinity than nonglycosylated bovine serum albumin. Enrichment of mannoproteins in the aged model wines implies greater solution stability than other yeast proteins and the possibility that their contributions to wine quality may persist long after bottling.

  14. Systematic analysis of rocky shore platform morphology at large spatial scale using LiDAR-derived digital elevation models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matsumoto, Hironori; Dickson, Mark E.; Masselink, Gerd

    2017-06-01

    Much of the existing research on rocky shore platforms describes results from carefully selected field sites, or comparisons between a relatively small number of selected sites. Here we describe a method to systematically analyse rocky shore morphology over a large area using LiDAR-derived digital elevation models. The method was applied to 700 km of coastline in southwest England; a region where there is considerable variation in wave climate and lithological settings, and a large alongshore variation in tidal range. Across-shore profiles were automatically extracted at 50 m intervals around the coast where information was available from the Coastal Channel Observatory coastal classification. Routines were developed to automatically remove non-platform profiles. The remaining 612 shore platform profiles were then subject to automated morphometric analyses, and correlation analysis in respect to three possible environmental controls: wave height, mean spring tidal range and rock strength. As expected, considerable scatter exists in the correlation analysis because only very coarse estimates of rock strength and wave height were applied, whereas variability in factors such as these can locally be the most important control on shoreline morphology. In view of this, it is somewhat surprising that overall consistency was found between previous published findings and the results from the systematic, automated analysis of LiDAR data: platform gradient increases as rock strength and tidal range increase, but decreases as wave height increases; platform width increases as wave height and tidal range increase, but decreases as rock strength increases. Previous studies have predicted shore platform gradient using tidal range alone. A multi-regression analysis of LiDAR data confirms that tidal range is the strongest predictor, but a new multi-factor empirical model considering tidal range, wave height, and rock strength yields better predictions of shore platform gradient

  15. A systematic experimental investigation of significant parameters affecting model tire hydroplaning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wray, G. A.; Ehrlich, I. R.

    1973-01-01

    The results of a comprehensive parametric study of model and small pneumatic tires operating on a wet surface are presented. Hydroplaning inception (spin down) and rolling restoration (spin up) are discussed. Conclusions indicate that hydroplaning inception occurs at a speed significantly higher than the rolling restoration speed. Hydroplaning speed increases considerably with tread depth, surface roughness and tire inflation pressure of footprint pressure, and only moderately with increased load. Water film thickness affects spin down speed only slightly. Spin down speed varies inversely as approximately the one-sixth power of film thickness. Empirical equations relating tire inflation pressure, normal load, tire diameter and water film thickness have been generated for various tire tread and surface configurations.

  16. Systematic synergy modeling: understanding drug synergy from a systems biology perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Di; Liu, Xi; Yang, Yiping; Yang, Hongjun; Lu, Peng

    2015-09-16

    Owing to drug synergy effects, drug combinations have become a new trend in combating complex diseases like cancer, HIV and cardiovascular diseases. However, conventional synergy quantification methods often depend on experimental dose-response data which are quite resource-demanding. In addition, these methods are unable to interpret the explicit synergy mechanism. In this review, we give representative examples of how systems biology modeling offers strategies toward better understanding of drug synergy, including the protein-protein interaction (PPI) network-based methods, pathway dynamic simulations, synergy network motif recognitions, integrative drug feature calculations, and "omic"-supported analyses. Although partially successful in drug synergy exploration and interpretation, more efforts should be put on a holistic understanding of drug-disease interactions, considering integrative pharmacology and toxicology factors. With a comprehensive and deep insight into the mechanism of drug synergy, systems biology opens a novel avenue for rational design of effective drug combinations.

  17. A systematic study of ball passing frequencies based on dynamic modeling of rolling ball bearings with localized surface defects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niu, Linkai; Cao, Hongrui; He, Zhengjia; Li, Yamin

    2015-11-01

    Ball passing frequencies (BPFs) are very important features for condition monitoring and fault diagnosis of rolling ball bearings. The ball passing frequency on outer raceway (BPFO) and the ball passing frequency on inner raceway (BPFI) are usually calculated by two well-known kinematics equations. In this paper, a systematic study of BPFs of rolling ball bearings is carried out. A novel method for accurately calculating BPFs based on a complete dynamic model of rolling ball bearings with localized surface defects is proposed. In the used dynamic model, three-dimensional motions, relative slippage, cage effects and localized surface defects are all considered. Moreover, localized surface defects are modeled accurately with consideration of the finite size of the ball, the additional clearance due to material absence, and changes of contact force directions. The reasonability of the proposed method for the prediction of dynamic behaviors of actual ball bearings with localized surface defects and for the calculation of BPFs is discussed by investigating the motion characteristics of a ball when it rolls through a defect. Parametric investigation shows that the shaft speed, external loads, the friction coefficient, raceway groove curvature factors, the initial contact angle, and defect sizes have great effects on BPFs. For a loaded ball bearing, the combination of rolling and sliding in contact region occurs, and the BPFs calculated by simple kinematical relationships are inaccurate, especially for high speed, low external load, and large initial contact angle conditions where severe skidding occurs. The hypothesis that the percentage variation of the spacing between impulses in a defective ball bearing was about 1-2% reported in previous investigations can be satisfied only for the conditions where the skidding effect in a bearing is slight. Finally, the proposed method is verified with two experiments.

  18. Health service delivery models for the provision of antiretroviral therapy in sub-Saharan Africa: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lazarus, Jeffrey V; Safreed-Harmon, Kelly; Nicholson, Joey; Jaffar, Shabbar

    2014-10-01

    In response to the lack of evidence-based guidance for how to continue scaling up antiretroviral therapy (ART) in ways that make optimal use of limited resources, to assess comparative studies of ART service delivery models implemented in sub-Saharan Africa. A systematic literature search and analysis of studies that compared two or more methods of ART service delivery using either CD4 count or viral load as a primary outcome. Most studies identified in this review were small and non-randomised, with low statistical power. Four of the 30 articles identified by this review conclude that nurse management of ART compares favourably to physician management. Seven provide evidence of the viability of managing ART at lower levels within the health system, and one indicates that vertical and integrated ART programmes can achieve similar outcomes. Five articles show that community/home-based ART management can be as effective as facility-based ART management. Five of seven articles investigating community support link it to better clinical outcomes. The results of four studies suggest that directly observed therapy may not be an important component of ART programmes. Given that the scale-up of antiretroviral therapy represents the most sweeping change in healthcare delivery in sub-Saharan Africa in recent years, it is surprising to not find more evidence from comparative studies to inform implementation strategies. The studies reported on a wide range of service delivery models, making it difficult to draw conclusions about some models. The strongest evidence was related to the feasibility of decentralisation and task-shifting, both of which appear to be effective strategies. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  19. Investigating the empirical support for therapeutic targets proposed by the temporal experience of pleasure model in schizophrenia: A systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Clementine J; Cella, Matteo; Tarrier, Nicholas; Wykes, Til

    2015-10-01

    Anhedonia and amotivation are substantial predictors of poor functional outcomes in people with schizophrenia and often present a formidable barrier to returning to work or building relationships. The Temporal Experience of Pleasure Model proposes constructs which should be considered therapeutic targets for these symptoms in schizophrenia e.g. anticipatory pleasure, memory, executive functions, motivation and behaviours related to the activity. Recent reviews have highlighted the need for a clear evidence base to drive the development of targeted interventions. To review systematically the empirical evidence for each TEP model component and propose evidence-based therapeutic targets for anhedonia and amotivation in schizophrenia. Following PRISMA guidelines, PubMed and PsycInfo were searched using the terms "schizophrenia" and "anhedonia". Studies were included if they measured anhedonia and participants had a diagnosis of schizophrenia. The methodology, measures and main findings from each study were extracted and critically summarised for each TEP model construct. 80 independent studies were reviewed and executive functions, emotional memory and the translation of motivation into actions are highlighted as key deficits with a strong evidence base in people with schizophrenia. However, there are many relationships that are unclear because the empirical work is limited by over-general tasks and measures. Promising methods for research which have more ecological validity include experience sampling and behavioural tasks assessing motivation. Specific adaptations to Cognitive Remediation Therapy, Cognitive Behavioural Therapy and the utilisation of mobile technology to enhance representations and emotional memory are recommended for future development. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  20. Systematic Constraint Selection Strategy for Rate-Controlled Constrained-Equilibrium Modeling of Complex Nonequilibrium Chemical Kinetics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beretta, Gian Paolo; Rivadossi, Luca; Janbozorgi, Mohammad

    2018-04-01

    Rate-Controlled Constrained-Equilibrium (RCCE) modeling of complex chemical kinetics provides acceptable accuracies with much fewer differential equations than for the fully Detailed Kinetic Model (DKM). Since its introduction by James C. Keck, a drawback of the RCCE scheme has been the absence of an automatable, systematic procedure to identify the constraints that most effectively warrant a desired level of approximation for a given range of initial, boundary, and thermodynamic conditions. An optimal constraint identification has been recently proposed. Given a DKM with S species, E elements, and R reactions, the procedure starts by running a probe DKM simulation to compute an S-vector that we call overall degree of disequilibrium (ODoD) because its scalar product with the S-vector formed by the stoichiometric coefficients of any reaction yields its degree of disequilibrium (DoD). The ODoD vector evolves in the same (S-E)-dimensional stoichiometric subspace spanned by the R stoichiometric S-vectors. Next we construct the rank-(S-E) matrix of ODoD traces obtained from the probe DKM numerical simulation and compute its singular value decomposition (SVD). By retaining only the first C largest singular values of the SVD and setting to zero all the others we obtain the best rank-C approximation of the matrix of ODoD traces whereby its columns span a C-dimensional subspace of the stoichiometric subspace. This in turn yields the best approximation of the evolution of the ODoD vector in terms of only C parameters that we call the constraint potentials. The resulting order-C RCCE approximate model reduces the number of independent differential equations related to species, mass, and energy balances from S+2 to C+E+2, with substantial computational savings when C ≪ S-E.

  1. Risk factors associated with iatrogenic opioid and benzodiazepine withdrawal in critically ill pediatric patients: a systematic review and conceptual model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Best, Kaitlin M; Boullata, Joseph I; Curley, Martha A Q

    2015-02-01

    Analgesia and sedation are common therapies in pediatric critical care, and rapid titration of these medications is associated with iatrogenic withdrawal syndrome. We performed a systematic review of the literature to identify all common and salient risk factors associated with iatrogenic withdrawal syndrome and build a conceptual model of iatrogenic withdrawal syndrome risk in critically ill pediatric patients. Multiple databases, including PubMed/Medline, EMBASE, CINAHL, and the Cochrane Central Registry of Clinical Trials, were searched using relevant terms from January 1, 1980, to August 1, 2014. Articles were included if they were published in English and discussed iatrogenic withdrawal syndrome following either opioid or benzodiazepine therapy in children in acute or intensive care settings. Articles were excluded if subjects were neonates born to opioid- or benzodiazepine-dependent mothers, children diagnosed as substance abusers, or subjects with cancer-related pain; if data about opioid or benzodiazepine treatment were not specified; or if primary data were not reported. In total, 1,395 articles were evaluated, 33 of which met the inclusion criteria. To facilitate analysis, all opioid and/or benzodiazepine doses were converted to morphine or midazolam equivalents, respectively. A table of evidence was developed for qualitative analysis of common themes, providing a framework for the construction of a conceptual model. The strongest risk factors associated with iatrogenic withdrawal syndrome include duration of therapy and cumulative dose. Additionally, evidence exists linking patient, process, and system factors in the development of iatrogenic withdrawal syndrome. Most articles were prospective observational or interventional studies. Given the state of existing evidence, well-designed prospective studies are required to better characterize iatrogenic withdrawal syndrome in critically ill pediatric patients. This review provides data to support the

  2. Real-time PCR Machine System Modeling and a Systematic Approach for the Robust Design of a Real-time PCR-on-a-Chip System

    OpenAIRE

    Lee, Da-Sheng

    2010-01-01

    Chip-based DNA quantification systems are widespread, and used in many point-of-care applications. However, instruments for such applications may not be maintained or calibrated regularly. Since machine reliability is a key issue for normal operation, this study presents a system model of the real-time Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) machine to analyze the instrument design through numerical experiments. Based on model analysis, a systematic approach was developed to lower the variation of DN...

  3. Sustainable business models: systematic approach toward successful ambulatory care pharmacy practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sachdev, Gloria

    2014-08-15

    This article discusses considerations for making ambulatory care pharmacist services at least cost neutral and, ideally, generate a margin that allows for service expansion. The four pillars of business sustainability are leadership, staffing, information technology, and compensation. A key facet of leadership in ambulatory care pharmacy practice is creating and expressing a clear vision for pharmacists' services. Staffing considerations include establishing training needs, maximizing efficiencies, and minimizing costs. Information technology is essential for efficiency in patient care delivery and outcomes assessment. The three domains of compensation are cost savings, pay for performance, and revenue generation. The following eight steps for designing and implementing an ambulatory care pharmacist service are discussed: (1) prepare a needs assessment, (2) analyze existing strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats, (3) analyze service gaps and feasibility, (4) consider financial opportunities, (5) consider stakeholders' interests, (6) develop a business plan, (7) implement the service, and (8) measure outcomes. Potential future changes in national healthcare policy (such as pharmacist provider status and expanded pay for performance) could enhance the opportunities for sustainable ambulatory care pharmacy practice. The key challenges facing ambulatory care pharmacists are developing sustainable business models, determining which services yield a positive return on investment, and demanding payment for value-added services. Copyright © 2014 by the American Society of Health-System Pharmacists, Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Brazilian healthcare model for people with mental disorders: a systematic literature review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcelo Theophilo Lima

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Objective: To evaluate the process of implementing the Brazilian psychiatric reform, especially regarding its impact on families’ management of healthcare issues. Methods: Interpretative research performed between August 2011 and January 2012, where symbolic interactionism was used as theoretical reference and Grounded Theory was used as the methodological reference. Initially, 49 articles on the subject were selected applying as descriptors mental health, psychiatric reform and psychosocial care, in Scielo, lIlACS and university libraries’ databases. of these, 17 articles were excluded for being published prior to 2008 and 18 for having approaches not comprised in the scope of the study. Results: The power relationships in the treatment method were identified as causal conditions of the de-hospitalization process, which occurs in a context of deficiency in the network intended to replace psychiatric hospitals, therefore requiring the participation of patients’ families in their reintegration at home and treatment. This strategy to deconstruct the psychiatric hospital-based model results in an excessive burden to the families. Conclusion: If, on one hand, the shift from hospitalization to in-home care, with embracement of the disease and of patients’ suffering in their very social relationships, was to propose the recovery of patients’ civil and human rights and their remaining into the society, on the other hand, it creates another series of problems, such as the emotional and logistical burden imposed on patients’ families.

  5. Facilitators and barriers of implementing the chronic care model in primary care: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kadu, Mudathira K; Stolee, Paul

    2015-02-06

    The Chronic Care Model (CCM) is a framework developed to redesign care delivery for individuals living with chronic diseases in primary care. The CCM and its various components have been widely adopted and evaluated, however, little is known about different primary care experiences with its implementation, and the factors that influence its successful uptake. The purpose of this review is to synthesize findings of studies that implemented the CCM in primary care, in order to identify facilitators and barriers encountered during implementation. This study identified English-language, peer-reviewed research articles, describing the CCM in primary care settings. Searches were performed in three data bases: Web of Knowledge, Pubmed and Scopus. Article abstracts and titles were read based on whether they met the following inclusion criteria: 1) studies published after 2003 that described or evaluated the implementation of the CCM; 2) the care setting was primary care; 3) the target population of the study was adults over the age of 18 with chronic conditions. Studies were categorized by reference, study design and methods, participants and setting, study objective, CCM components used, and description of the intervention. The next stage of data abstraction involved qualitative analysis of cited barriers and facilitators using the Consolidating Framework for Research Implementation. This review identified barriers and facilitators of implementation across various primary care settings in 22 studies. The major emerging themes were those related to the inner setting of the organization, the process of implementation and characteristics of the individual healthcare providers. These included: organizational culture, its structural characteristics, networks and communication, implementation climate and readiness, presence of supportive leadership, and provider attitudes and beliefs. These findings highlight the importance of assessing organizational capacity and needs prior

  6. A Systematic Review of Perennial Staple Crops Literature Using Topic Modeling and Bibliometric Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-01-01

    Research on perennial staple crops has increased in the past ten years due to their potential to improve ecosystem services in agricultural systems. However, multiple past breeding efforts as well as research on traditional ratoon systems mean there is already a broad body of literature on perennial crops. In this review, we compare the development of research on perennial staple crops, including wheat, rice, rye, sorghum, and pigeon pea. We utilized the advanced search capabilities of Web of Science, Scopus, ScienceDirect, and Agricola to gather a library of 914 articles published from 1930 to the present. We analyzed the metadata in the entire library and in collections of literature on each crop to understand trends in research and publishing. In addition, we applied topic modeling to the article abstracts, a type of text analysis that identifies frequently co-occurring terms and latent topics. We found: 1.) Research on perennials is increasing overall, but individual crops have each seen periods of heightened interest and research activity; 2.) Specialist journals play an important role in supporting early research efforts. Research often begins within communities of specialists or breeders for the individual crop before transitioning to a more general scientific audience; 3.) Existing perennial agricultural systems and their domesticated crop material, such as ratoon rice systems, can provide a useful foundation for breeding efforts, accelerating the development of truly perennial crops and farming systems; 4.) Primary research is lacking for crops that are produced on a smaller scale globally, such as pigeon pea and sorghum, and on the ecosystem service benefits of perennial agricultural systems. PMID:27213283

  7. Systematic in vitro nanotoxicity study on anodic alumina nanotubes with engineered aspect ratio: understanding nanotoxicity by a nanomaterial model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Ye; Kaur, Gagandeep; Zysk, Aneta; Liapis, Vasilios; Hay, Shelley; Santos, Abel; Losic, Dusan; Evdokiou, Andreas

    2015-04-01

    Here, we report a detailed and systematic approach for studying the in vitro nanotoxicity study of high aspect ratio (HAR) nanomaterials using anodic alumina nanotubes (AANTs) as a nanomaterial model. AANTs with bio-inert properties and tailored aspect ratios ranging from 7.8 to 63.3 were synthesized by an electrochemical pulse anodization process. Cytotoxicity studies were conducted with RAW 264.7 mouse macrophage cells and MDA-MB 231-TXSA human breast cancer cells through several toxicity parameters, including cell viability and morphology, pro-inflammatory response, mitochondrial depolarization, lysosomal membrane permeabilization (LMP), induction of autophagy and endoplasmic reticulum (ER) stress. The resulting toxicity patterns were cell-type dependent and strongly related with AANTs dose, length of time, and importantly the AR of AANTs. Long AANTs triggered enhanced cell death, morphological changes, tumor necrosis factor α (TNF-α) release, LMP and ER stress than short AANTs. The toxic AR window of AANTs was determined to be 7.8, which is shorter than that of other previously reported HAR nanomaterials. This toxic AR window provides a promising opportunity to control the nanotoxicity of HAR nanomaterials for their advanced drug delivery application. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Unique and Overlapping Symptoms in Schizophrenia Spectrum and Dissociative Disorders in Relation to Models of Psychopathology: A Systematic Review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Renard, Selwyn B.; Huntjens, Rafaele J. C.; Lysaker, Paul H.; Moskowitz, Andrew; Aleman, André; Pijnenborg, Gerdina H. M.

    2017-01-01

    Schizophrenia spectrum disorders (SSDs) and dissociative disorders (DDs) are described in the fifth edition of the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual for Mental Disorders (DSM-5) and tenth edition of the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems (ICD-10) as 2 categorically distinct diagnostic categories. However, several studies indicate high levels of co-occurrence between these diagnostic groups, which might be explained by overlapping symptoms. The aim of this systematic review is to provide a comprehensive overview of the research concerning overlap and differences in symptoms between schizophrenia spectrum and DDs. For this purpose the PubMed, PsycINFO, and Web of Science databases were searched for relevant literature. The literature contained a large body of evidence showing the presence of symptoms of dissociation in SSDs. Although there are quantitative differences between diagnoses, overlapping symptoms are not limited to certain domains of dissociation, nor to nonpathological forms of dissociation. In addition, dissociation seems to be related to a history of trauma in SSDs, as is also seen in DDs. There is also evidence showing that positive and negative symptoms typically associated with schizophrenia may be present in DD. Implications of these results are discussed with regard to different models of psychopathology and clinical practice. PMID:27209638

  9. Overlooked and underestimated? Problematic alcohol use in clients recovering from drug dependence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Staiger, Petra K; Richardson, Ben; Long, Caroline M; Carr, Victoria; Marlatt, G Alan

    2013-07-01

    Despite recognition of the harms related to alcohol misuse and its potential to interfere substantially with sustained recovery from drug dependency, research evaluating drug treatment outcomes has not addressed the issue comprehensively. It has been overlooked possibly because treatment research has been framed according to the primary drug of choice, rather than investigating the interactions between different combinations of drugs and/or alcohol use. This paper reports on a systematic review investigating whether concurrent alcohol use could impede recovery from illicit drug use in two potential ways: first, alcohol could become a substitute addiction and/or secondly, alcohol misuse post-treatment may place an individual at risk for relapse to their primary drug problem. A systematic search of four relevant databases was undertaken to identify peer-reviewed, quantitative drug treatment outcome studies that reported alcohol use pre-, post-treatment and follow-up. The search revealed 567 papers, of which 13 were assessed as fulfilling the key inclusion criteria.The review indicated inconsistent and therefore inconclusive support for the substitution hypothesis. However, the data revealed consistent support for the hypothesis that alcohol use increases relapse to drug use. (i) The potential negative impact of alcohol misuse on drug treatment outcomes remains under-researched and overlooked; (ii) alcohol consumption post-drug treatment may increase the likelihood that an individual will relapse to their primary drug; (ii) existing evidence regarding the substitution hypothesis is inconclusive, although there was an indication that a subgroup of participants will be vulnerable to alcohol becoming the primary addiction instead of drugs. We argue that future drug treatment outcome studies need to include detailed analysis of the influence of alcohol use pre- and post-drug treatment. © 2012 The Authors, Addiction © 2012 Society for the Study of Addiction.

  10. Substantial Underestimation of Post-harvest Burning Emissions in East China as Seen by Multi-species Space Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stavrakou, T.; Muller, J. F.; Bauwens, M.; De Smedt, I.; Lerot, C.; Van Roozendael, M.

    2015-12-01

    Crop residue burning is an important contributor to global biomass burning. In the North China Plain, one of the largest and densely populated world plains, post-harvest crop burning is a common agricultural management practice, allowing for land clearing from residual straw and preparation for the subsequent crop cultivation. The most extensive crop fires occur in the North China Plain in June after the winter wheat comes to maturity, and have been blamed for spikes in air pollution leading to serious health problems. Estimating harvest season burning emissions is therefore of primary importance to assess air quality and define best policies for its improvement in this sensitive region. Bottom-up approaches, either based on crop production and emission factors, or on satellite burned area and fire radiative power products, have been adopted so far, however, these methods crucially depend, among other assumptions, on the satellite skill to detect small fires, and could lead to underestimation of the actual emissions. The flux inversion of atmospheric observations is an alternative, independent approach for inferring the emissions from crop fires. Satellite column observations of formaldehyde (HCHO) exhibit a strong peak over the North China Plain in June, resulting from enhanced pyrogenic emissions of a large suite of volatile organic compounds (VOCs), precursors of HCHO. We use vertical columns of formaldehyde retrieved from the OMI instrument between 2005 and 2012 as constraints in an adjoint inversion scheme built on IMAGESv2 CTM, and perform the optimization of biogenic, pyrogenic, and anthropogenic emission parameters at the model resolution. We investigate the interannual variability of the top-down source, quantify its importance for the atmospheric composition on the regional scale, and explore its uncertainties. The OMI-based crop burning source is compared with the corresponding anthropogenic flux in the North China Plain, and is evaluated against HCHO

  11. The potential of social enterprise to enhance health and well-being: a model and systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roy, Michael J; Donaldson, Cam; Baker, Rachel; Kerr, Susan

    2014-12-01

    In recent years civil society organisations, associations, institutions and groups have become increasingly involved at various levels in the governance of healthcare systems around the world. In the UK, particularly in the context of recent reform of the National Health Service in England, social enterprise - that part of the third sector engaged in trading - has come to the fore as a potential model of state-sponsored healthcare delivery. However, to date, there has been no review of evidence on the outcomes of social enterprise involvement in healthcare, nor in the ability of social enterprise to address health inequalities more widely through action on the social determinants of health. Following the development of an initial conceptual model, this systematic review identifies and synthesises evidence from published empirical research on the impact of social enterprise activity on health outcomes and their social determinants. Ten health and social science databases were searched with no date delimiters set. Inclusion and exclusion criteria were applied prior to data extraction and quality appraisal. Heterogeneity in the outcomes assessed precluded meta-analysis/meta-synthesis and so the results are therefore presented in narrative form. Five studies met the inclusion criteria. The included studies provide limited evidence that social enterprise activity can impact positively on mental health, self-reliance/esteem and health behaviours, reduce stigmatization and build social capital, all of which can contribute to overall health and well-being. No empirical research was identified that examined social enterprise as an alternative mode of healthcare delivery. Due to the limited evidence available, we discuss the relationship between the evidence found and other literature not included in the review. There is a clear need for research to better understand and evidence causal mechanisms and to explore the impact of social enterprise activity, and wider civil

  12. Endogenous implementation of technology gap in energy optimization models-a systematic analysis within TIMES G5 model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rout, Ullash K.; Fahl, Ulrich; Remme, Uwe; Blesl, Markus; Voss, Alfred

    2009-01-01

    Evaluation of global diffusion potential of learning technologies and their timely specific cost development across regions is always a challenging issue for the future technology policy preparation. Further the process of evaluation gains interest especially by endogenous treatment of energy technologies under uncertainty in learning rates with technology gap across the regions in global regional cluster learning approach. This work devised, implemented, and examined new methodologies on technology gaps (a practical problem), using two broad concepts of knowledge deficit and time lag approaches in global learning, applying the floor cost approach methodology. The study was executed in a multi-regional, technology-rich and long horizon bottom-up linear energy system model on The Integrated MARKAL EFOM System (TIMES) framework. Global learning selects highest learning technologies in maximum uncertainty of learning rate scenario, whereas any form of technology gap retards the global learning process and discourages the technologies deployment. Time lag notions of technology gaps prefer heavy utilization of learning technologies in developed economies for early reduction of specific cost. Technology gaps of any kind should be reduced among economies through the promotion and enactment of various policies by governments, in order to utilize the technological resources by mass deployment to combat ongoing climate change.

  13. Experimental model for architectural systematization and its basic thermal performance. Part 1. Research on architectural systematization of energy conversion devices; Kenchiku system ka model no gaiyo to kihon seino ni tsuite. 1. Energy henkan no kenchiku system ka ni kansuru kenkyu

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sunaga, N; Ito, N; Kimura, G; Fukao, S; Shimizu, T; Tsunoda, M; Muro, K [Tokyo Metropolitan University, Tokyo (Japan)

    1996-10-27

    The outline of a model for architectural systematization of natural energy conversion and the experiment result on the basic thermal performance in winter are described. The model is about 20 m{sup 2} in floor space. Foam polystyrene of 100 mm and 200 mm thick was used for the outer wall as heat insulating materials. The model has a solar battery and air conditioner and uses red brick as a heat reservoir. An experiment was made on seven modes obtained when three elements (heating, heat storage, and night insulated door) are combined. The information obtained by the experiment showed that a model for architectural systematization has high heat insulation and tightness and can be used as an energy element or an evaluation model for architectural systematization. In this model for architectural systematization, the power consumption of an air conditioner in winter can be fully supplied by only the power generation based on a solar battery. In an architectural element, the heating energy consumption can be remarkably reduced and the indoor thermal environment can be greatly improved, by the combination of a heat reservoir and night heat insulated door. 1 ref., 6 figs., 3 tabs.

  14. Forecasting the mortality rates using Lee-Carter model and Heligman-Pollard model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ibrahim, R. I.; Ngataman, N.; Abrisam, W. N. A. Wan Mohd

    2017-09-01

    Improvement in life expectancies has driven further declines in mortality. The sustained reduction in mortality rates and its systematic underestimation has been attracting the significant interest of researchers in recent years because of its potential impact on population size and structure, social security systems, and (from an actuarial perspective) the life insurance and pensions industry worldwide. Among all forecasting methods, the Lee-Carter model has been widely accepted by the actuarial community and Heligman-Pollard model has been widely used by researchers in modelling and forecasting future mortality. Therefore, this paper only focuses on Lee-Carter model and Heligman-Pollard model. The main objective of this paper is to investigate how accurately these two models will perform using Malaysian data. Since these models involves nonlinear equations that are expli