WorldWideScience

Sample records for model sm predictions

  1. Theoretical prediction of pKa in methanol: testing SM8 and SMD models for carboxylic acids, phenols, and amines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miguel, Elizabeth L M; Silva, Poliana L; Pliego, Josefredo R

    2014-05-29

    Methanol is a widely used solvent for chemical reactions and has solvation properties similar to those of water. However, the performance of continuum solvation models in this solvent has not been tested yet. In this report, we have investigated the performance of the SM8 and SMD models for pKa prediction of 26 carboxylic acids, 24 phenols, and 23 amines in methanol. The gas phase contribution was included at the X3LYP/TZVPP+diff//X3LYP/DZV+P(d) level. Using the proton exchange reaction with acetic acid, phenol, and ammonia as reference species leads to RMS error in the range of 1.4 to 3.6 pKa units. This finding suggests that the performance of the continuum models for methanol is similar to that found for aqueous solvent. Application of simple empirical correction through a linear equation leads to accurate pKa prediction, with uncertainty less than 0.8 units with the SM8 method. Testing with the less expensive PBE1PBE/6-311+G** method results in a slight improvement in the results.

  2. The simultaneous mass and energy evaporation (SM2E) model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choudhary, Rehan; Klauda, Jeffery B

    2016-01-01

    In this article, the Simultaneous Mass and Energy Evaporation (SM2E) model is presented. The SM2E model is based on theoretical models for mass and energy transfer. The theoretical models systematically under or over predicted at various flow conditions: laminar, transition, and turbulent. These models were harmonized with experimental measurements to eliminate systematic under or over predictions; a total of 113 measured evaporation rates were used. The SM2E model can be used to estimate evaporation rates for pure liquids as well as liquid mixtures at laminar, transition, and turbulent flow conditions. However, due to limited availability of evaporation data, the model has so far only been tested against data for pure liquids and binary mixtures. The model can take evaporative cooling into account and when the temperature of the evaporating liquid or liquid mixture is known (e.g., isothermal evaporation), the SM2E model reduces to a mass transfer-only model.

  3. People Capability Maturity Model. SM.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1995-09-01

    tailored so it consumes less time and resources than a traditional software process assessment or CMU/SEI-95-MM-02 People Capability Maturity Model...improved reputation or customer loyalty. CMU/SEI-95-MM-02 People Capability Maturity Model ■ L5-17 Coaching Level 5: Optimizing Activity 1...Maturity Model CMU/SEI-95-MM-62 Carnegie-Mellon University Software Engineering Institute DTIC ELECTE OCT 2 7 1995 People Capability Maturity

  4. Performance of the SMD and SM8 models for predicting solvation free energy of neutral solutes in methanol, dimethyl sulfoxide and acetonitrile

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zanith, Caroline C.; Pliego, Josefredo R.

    2015-03-01

    The continuum solvation models SMD and SM8 were developed using 2,346 solvation free energy values for 318 neutral molecules in 91 solvents as reference. However, no solvation data of neutral solutes in methanol was used in the parametrization, while only few solvation free energy values of solutes in dimethyl sulfoxide and acetonitrile were used. In this report, we have tested the performance of the models for these important solvents. Taking data from literature, we have generated solvation free energy, enthalpy and entropy values for 37 solutes in methanol, 21 solutes in dimethyl sulfoxide and 19 solutes in acetonitrile. Both SMD and SM8 models have presented a good performance in methanol and acetonitrile, with mean unsigned error equal or less than 0.66 and 0.55 kcal mol-1 in methanol and acetonitrile, respectively. However, the correlation is worse in dimethyl sulfoxide, where the SMD and SM8 methods present mean unsigned error of 1.02 and 0.95 kcal mol-1, respectively. Our results point out the SMx family of models need be improved for dimethyl sulfoxide solvent.

  5. Symmetries for SM Alignment in multi-Higgs Doublet Models

    CERN Document Server

    Pilaftsis, Apostolos

    2016-01-01

    We derive the complete set of maximal symmetries for Standard Model (SM) alignment that may occur in the tree-level scalar potential of multi-Higgs Doublet Models, with $n > 2$ Higgs doublets. Our results generalize the symmetries of SM alignment, without decoupling of large mass scales or fine-tuning, previously obtained in the context of two-Higgs Doublet Models.

  6. Model SM-1 ballast density gauge

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gao Weixiang; Fang Jidong; Zhang Xuejuan; Zhang Reilin; Gao Wanshan

    1990-05-01

    The ballast density is one of the principal parameters for roadbed operating state. It greatly affects the railroad stability, the accumulation of railroad residual deformation and the amount of work for railroad maintenance. SM-1 ballast density gauge is designed to determine the density of ballast by using the effect of γ-ray passed through the ballast. Its fundamentals, construction, specifications, application and economic profit are described

  7. Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Project Strategy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bader, D. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2017-09-18

    The E3SM project will assert and maintain an international scientific leadership position in the development of Earth system and climate models at the leading edge of scientific knowledge and computational capabilities. With its collaborators, it will demonstrate its leadership by using these models to achieve the goal of designing, executing, and analyzing climate and Earth system simulations that address the most critical scientific questions for the nation and DOE.

  8. SM4MQ: A Semantic Model for Multidimensional Queries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Varga, Jovan; Dobrokhotova, Ekaterina; Romero, Oscar

    2017-01-01

    metadata artifacts (e.g., queries) to assist users with the analysis. However, modeling and sharing of most of these artifacts are typically overlooked. Thus, in this paper we focus on the query metadata artifact in the Exploratory OLAP context and propose an RDF-based vocabulary for its representation......, sharing, and reuse on the SW. As OLAP is based on the underlying multidimensional (MD) data model we denote such queries as MD queries and define SM4MQ: A Semantic Model for Multidimensional Queries. Furthermore, we propose a method to automate the exploitation of queries by means of SPARQL. We apply...... the method to a use case of transforming queries from SM4MQ to a vector representation. For the use case, we developed the prototype and performed an evaluation that shows how our approach can significantly ease and support user assistance such as query recommendation....

  9. Matching uncertainties in the prediction of the Higgs boson transverse momentum in the SM and beyond

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bagnaschi, Emanuele

    2016-09-01

    We present the results of our recent study of the theoretical uncertainties that affect the predictions for the Higgs-boson transverse-momentum in gluon fusion when fixed- and all-order results are matched. Our investigation consists of a twofold analysis: first we present a detailed comparison of two recently introduced prescriptions for the determination of the matching scale, then we apply the results of these methods to three widely used matching frameworks, namely the aMC rate at NLO and POWHEG Monte Carlo approaches and analytic resummation. The results of our study are applied to the production of the SM Higgs boson and of the neutral Higgs bosons of the Two-Higgs-Doublet Model in a variety of scenarios.

  10. SM4MQ: A Semantic Model for Multidimensional Queries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Varga, Jovan; Dobrokhotova, Ekaterina; Romero, Oscar

    2017-01-01

    On-Line Analytical Processing (OLAP) is a data analysis approach to support decision-making. On top of that, Exploratory OLAP is a novel initiative for the convergence of OLAP and the Semantic Web (SW) that enables the use of OLAP techniques on SW data. Moreover, OLAP approaches exploit different......, sharing, and reuse on the SW. As OLAP is based on the underlying multidimensional (MD) data model we denote such queries as MD queries and define SM4MQ: A Semantic Model for Multidimensional Queries. Furthermore, we propose a method to automate the exploitation of queries by means of SPARQL. We apply...

  11. SM*A*S*H (Standard Model*Axion*Seesaw*Higgs portal inflation)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ringwald, Andreas

    2016-10-01

    We present a minimal model for particle physics and cosmology. The Standard Model (SM) particle content is extended by three right-handed SM-singlet neutrinos N_i and a vector-like quark Q, all of them being charged under a global lepton number and Peccei-Quinn (PQ) U(1) symmetry which is spontaneously broken by the vacuum expectation value υ_σ∝10"1"1 GeV of a SM-singlet complex scalar field σ. Five fundamental problems - neutrino oscillations, baryogenesis, dark matter, inflation, strong CP problem - are solved at one stroke in this model, dubbed ''SM*A*S*H'' (Standard Model*Axion*Seesaw*Higgs portal inflation). It can be probed decisively by upcoming cosmic microwave background and axion dark matter experiments.

  12. Prediction of the new efficient permanent magnet SmCoNiFe3

    Science.gov (United States)

    Söderlind, P.; Landa, A.; Locht, I. L. M.; Åberg, D.; Kvashnin, Y.; Pereiro, M.; Däne, M.; Turchi, P. E. A.; Antropov, V. P.; Eriksson, O.

    2017-09-01

    We propose a new efficient permanent magnet, SmCoNiFe3, which is a development of the well-known SmCo5 prototype. More modern neodymium magnets of the Nd-Fe-B type have an advantage over SmCo5 because of their greater maximum energy products due to their iron-rich stoichiometry. Our new magnet, however, removes most of this disadvantage of SmCo5 while preserving its superior high-temperature efficiency over the neodymium magnets. We show by means of first-principles electronic-structure calculations that SmCoNiFe3 has very favorable magnetic properties and could therefore potentially replace SmCo5 or Nd-Fe-B types in various applications.

  13. Experimental validation of Pu-Sm evolution model for CANDU-6 power transients

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coutsiers, Eduardo E.; Pomerantz, Marcelo E.; Moreno, Carlos A.

    2000-01-01

    Development of a methodology to evaluate the reactivity produced by Pu-Sm transient, effect displayed after power transients. This methodology allows to predict the behavior of liquid zones with which the fine control of CANDU reactor power is made. With this information, it is easier to foresee the refueling demand after power movements. The comparison with experimental results showed good agreement. (author)

  14. Mass of the 158Sm

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhao Kui; Guo Jiyu; Lu Xiuqin; Cheng Yehao; Huang Xiaolin; Ma Yong; Li Shuyuan; Ruan Ming; Li Zhichang; Jiang Chenglie

    1997-01-01

    A preliminary result was reported for the experiment to determine the mass of the heavier neutron-rich nucleus 158 Sm using the 160 Gd( 18 O, 20 Ne) two proton transfer reaction in last progress report. The average Q-value of (4.046 +- 0.102) MeV for the 160 Gd( 18 O, 20 Ne) 158 Sm reaction is given. A mass excess for 158 Sm of (-65.738 +- 0.102) MeV was derived. This is the first experimentally measured value of the mass of 158 Sm which is about 450 keV higher than the evaluation value from systematic trends listed in the 1993 atomic mass table. The new prediction shows better agreement with the measured values and a significant improvement over the earlier FRDM (finite-range droplet model) value

  15. FSPP: A Tool for Genome-Wide Prediction of smORF-Encoded Peptides and Their Functions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hui Li

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available smORFs are small open reading frames of less than 100 codons. Recent low throughput experiments showed a lot of smORF-encoded peptides (SEPs played crucial rule in processes such as regulation of transcription or translation, transportation through membranes and the antimicrobial activity. In order to gather more functional SEPs, it is necessary to have access to genome-wide prediction tools to give profound directions for low throughput experiments. In this study, we put forward a functional smORF-encoded peptides predictor (FSPP which tended to predict authentic SEPs and their functions in a high throughput method. FSPP used the overlap of detected SEPs from Ribo-seq and mass spectrometry as target objects. With the expression data on transcription and translation levels, FSPP built two co-expression networks. Combing co-location relations, FSPP constructed a compound network and then annotated SEPs with functions of adjacent nodes. Tested on 38 sequenced samples of 5 human cell lines, FSPP successfully predicted 856 out of 960 annotated proteins. Interestingly, FSPP also highlighted 568 functional SEPs from these samples. After comparison, the roles predicted by FSPP were consistent with known functions. These results suggest that FSPP is a reliable tool for the identification of functional small peptides. FSPP source code can be acquired at https://www.bioinfo.org/FSPP.

  16. Physiologically based pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic modeling of an antagonist (SM-406/AT-406) of multiple inhibitor of apoptosis proteins (IAPs) in a mouse xenograft model of human breast cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Tao; Li, Yanyan; Zou, Peng; Yu, Jing-yu; McEachern, Donna; Wang, Shaomeng; Sun, Duxin

    2013-09-01

    The inhibitors of apoptosis proteins (IAPs) are a class of key apoptosis regulators overexpressed or dysregulated in cancer. SM-406/AT-406 is a potent and selective small molecule mimetic of Smac that antagonizes the inhibitor of apoptosis proteins (IAPs). A physiologically based pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic (PBPK-PD) model was developed to predict the tissue concentration-time profiles of SM-406, the related onco-protein levels in tumor, and the tumor growth inhibition in a mouse model bearing human breast cancer xenograft. In the whole body physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model for pharmacokinetics characterization, a well stirred (perfusion rate-limited) model was used to describe SM-406 pharmacokinetics in the lung, heart, kidney, intestine, liver and spleen, and a diffusion rate-limited (permeability limited) model was used for tumor. Pharmacodynamic (PD) models were developed to correlate the SM-406 concentration in tumor to the cIAP1 degradation, pro-caspase 8 decrease, CL-PARP accumulation and tumor growth inhibition. The PBPK-PD model well described the experimental pharmacokinetic data, the pharmacodynamic biomarker responses and tumor growth. This model may be helpful to predict tumor and plasma SM-406 concentrations in the clinic. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  17. ATLAS experience with the modeling of SM processes in the context of Higgs studies / BSM searches

    CERN Document Server

    ATLAS Collaboration; The ATLAS collaboration

    2015-01-01

    much is known from the ATLAS/CMS SM articles about the performance of qcd tools (e.g. from the studies of W/Z+jets cross sections, top quark distributions, etc). A bit less is known about the efforts that are needed to ensure a proper description of backgrounds in the BSM searches or in Higgs studies. In the searches, for example, control samples are used, to avoid the need of inaccurate MC models, or to reweight improper modeling. Sometimes we don't see in teh final papers what is happening behind the scenes, and it's hard to learn about possible modeling issues. Are there clear deficiencies that, if fixed, would make your work simpler and more effective? These talks should focus on these specific aspects of the H and BSM studies. In other words, they should neither report H or BSM results, nor report on generic SM measurements, but give some perspective on the current status and on the possible needs for future improvements of SM modeling for H precision studies and BSM searches.

  18. Pressure and temperature dependence of laser-induced fluorescence of Sm:YAG to 100 kbar and 700 degree C and an empirical model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hess, N.J.; Schiferl, D.

    1990-01-01

    The inability to measure pressure with accuracy at high temperature has been a hindrance to the development of simultaneous high-temperature, high-pressure experimental techniques. The results of recent laser-induced fluorescence studies at high temperature and high pressure indicate that Sm:YAG is a promising pressure calibrant with very low-temperature sensitivity. The most intense feature in the fluorescence spectrum is a doublet at 16186.5 cm -1 . The Sm:YAG doublet exhibits a pressure-induced peak shift comparable to the R 1 shift of ruby. However, the temperature-induced shift of the doublet is almost two orders of magnitude less than that observed for the R 1 peak. Simultaneous high-pressure-temperature experiments indicate that the pressure and temperature effects on the frequency and line shape can be added linearly. An empirical model based on the linear combination of pressure dependent frequency shift and temperature dependent linewidth and intensity ratio successfully predicts the doublet line shape at simultaneous pressure and temperature. Use of the model facilitates measurement of peak position at high temperature resulting in improved accuracy and repeatability of the pressure determination. Pressure measurements at 400 degree C and 40 kbar based on the Sm:YAG doublet peak position agree with the temperature-corrected ruby R 1 pressure measurement to within 3 kbar. At 15 kbar and 900 degree C the uncertainty in the Sm:YAG fluorescence peak wavelength is 5 cm -1 due to temperature-induced line broadening; this corresponds to an uncertainty in the pressure determination of ±2.5 kbar. The high thermal and chemical stability of YAG materials make Sm:YAG an ideal pressure calibrant for high-temperature applications

  19. Predictive modeling of complications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osorio, Joseph A; Scheer, Justin K; Ames, Christopher P

    2016-09-01

    Predictive analytic algorithms are designed to identify patterns in the data that allow for accurate predictions without the need for a hypothesis. Therefore, predictive modeling can provide detailed and patient-specific information that can be readily applied when discussing the risks of surgery with a patient. There are few studies using predictive modeling techniques in the adult spine surgery literature. These types of studies represent the beginning of the use of predictive analytics in spine surgery outcomes. We will discuss the advancements in the field of spine surgery with respect to predictive analytics, the controversies surrounding the technique, and the future directions.

  20. ANALYTICAL DESCRIPTIVE STUDY OF RELIGIOUS ATTITUDE CONSTRUCTION MODEL AT LPTK ORGANIZING PROFESSIONAL POST SM-3T TEACHER EDUCATION IN INDONESIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edi Suresman, dkk

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstrack, A successful education is influenced by various factors, one of which is method or approach to education to build a religious attitude for students. One of Islamic values-based learning methods that have been implemented at UPI in an effort to build religious attitude of PPG Post SM-3T participants is targhib and tarhib learning model and the results are very effective. The focus of problem in this study is on whether targhib - tarhib model was used in other LPTKs in building religious attitude for PPG Post SM-3T participants? The purpose of this study is to understand what learning model is applied in LPTK organizing PPG Post SM-3T in building religious attitude for PPG participants? This study was conducted by using a descriptive approach, qualitative-interpretative. The techniques of data collection used are questionnaire in the form of religious attitude distributed to PPG Post SM-3T participants, religious builder in a dormitory, and manager, and participation observation in the field. The data analysis was performed in five steps: verification of the data, presentation of the serial number for answer sheets, scoring of answer sheet, calculation of religious attitude trends by estimating the population and its percentage, and analysis of trends to differences in the effectiveness of each method used to mold religious attitude in each of LPTK organizing PPG. The results of the study suggest any variation of models used in each of LPTK, i.e., lectures, tutorials, thariqah shufis and targhibs - tarhibs. The targhib - tarhib have the most successful position than other models. Targhib – tarhib are 84%, lectures, 50%, shufis, 80%, tutorials, 70%.   Keywords: Construction Model, Religious Attitude, PPG Post SM-3T.   Abstrak, Keberhasilan pendidikan dipengaruhi oleh berbagai faktor, salah satu faktor tersebut adalah metode atau pendekatan pendidikan yang dapat membangun sikap religius bagi peserta didik. Salah satu metode

  1. 31 CFR Appendix B to Part 208 - Model Disclosure for Use After ETA SM Becomes Available

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ..., low-cost accounts in addition to full-service checking or savings accounts. (2) Receive your payment through a basic, low-cost account called an ETA SM. If you receive a Federal benefit, wage, salary, or retirement payment, you are eligible to open an ETA SM. This account is available for a low monthly fee at...

  2. The Impact of Parametric Uncertainties on Biogeochemistry in the E3SM Land Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ricciuto, Daniel; Sargsyan, Khachik; Thornton, Peter

    2018-02-01

    We conduct a global sensitivity analysis (GSA) of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), land model (ELM) to calculate the sensitivity of five key carbon cycle outputs to 68 model parameters. This GSA is conducted by first constructing a Polynomial Chaos (PC) surrogate via new Weighted Iterative Bayesian Compressive Sensing (WIBCS) algorithm for adaptive basis growth leading to a sparse, high-dimensional PC surrogate with 3,000 model evaluations. The PC surrogate allows efficient extraction of GSA information leading to further dimensionality reduction. The GSA is performed at 96 FLUXNET sites covering multiple plant functional types (PFTs) and climate conditions. About 20 of the model parameters are identified as sensitive with the rest being relatively insensitive across all outputs and PFTs. These sensitivities are dependent on PFT, and are relatively consistent among sites within the same PFT. The five model outputs have a majority of their highly sensitive parameters in common. A common subset of sensitive parameters is also shared among PFTs, but some parameters are specific to certain types (e.g., deciduous phenology). The relative importance of these parameters shifts significantly among PFTs and with climatic variables such as mean annual temperature.

  3. Safety and feasibility of percutaneous vertebroplasty with radioactive {sup 153}Sm PMMA in an animal model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lu Jun [Department of Radiotherapy, Xijing Hospital, Fourth Military Medical University, 15 West Changle Road, Xi' an 710032, Shaanxi Province (China); Deng Jinglan, E-mail: dengjinglan@gmail.com [Department of Nuclear Medicine, Xijing Hospital, Fourth Military Medical University, 15 West Changle Road, Xi' an 710032, Shaanxi Province (China); Zhao Haitao [Department of Radiology, Xijing Hospital, Fourth Military Medical University, 15 West Changle Road, Xi' an 710032, Shaanxi Province (China); Shi Mei [Department of Radiotherapy, Xijing Hospital, Fourth Military Medical University, 15 West Changle Road, Xi' an 710032, Shaanxi Province (China); Wang Jing [Department of Nuclear Medicine, Xijing Hospital, Fourth Military Medical University, 15 West Changle Road, Xi' an 710032, Shaanxi Province (China); Zhao Lina [Department of Radiotherapy, Xijing Hospital, Fourth Military Medical University, 15 West Changle Road, Xi' an 710032, Shaanxi Province (China)

    2011-05-15

    Purpose: We investigated the safety and feasibility of the combination of samarium-153-ethylenediamine tetramethylene phosphonate ({sup 153}Sm-EDTMP)-incorporated bone cement (BC) with percutaneous vertebroplasty (PVP) in dogs. Methods and materials: {sup 153}Sm-EDTMP-incorporated BC was prepared by combining solid {sup 153}Sm-EDTMP and polymethylmethacrylate (PMMA) immediately before PVP. It was then injected into the vertebrae of four healthy mongrel dogs (two males and two females) by PVP under CT guidance. Each dog was subjected to five PVP sessions at a {sup 153}Sm-EDTMP dose of 30-70 mCi. The suppressive effect of local injection of {sup 153}Sm-EDTMP on the hematopoietic system was evaluated through counting of peripheral blood cells. Distribution of {sup 153}Sm-EDTMP-incorporated BC and the status of tissues adjacent to injected vertebrae were evaluated with SPECT, CT and MRI. Histopathology was carried out to assess the influence of PVP on the vertebra and adjacent tissues at the microscopic level. Results: PVP was done successfully, and all dogs exhibited normal behavior and stable physical signs after procedures. {sup 153}Sm-EDTMP-incorporated BC was concentrated mainly in target vertebrae, and the peripheral blood cells remained within normal range. The spinal cord and tissues around BC did not exhibit signs of injury even when the dosage of {sup 153}Sm-EDTMP increased from 30 mCi to 70 mCi. Conclusion: A dose lower than 70 mCi of {sup 153}Sm is safe when it was injected into vertebrae. {sup 153}Sm-EDTMP-incorporated BC did not influence the effect of PVP. This means might strengthen anti-tumor activity locally for vertebra with osseous metastasis without damaging adjacent tissues.

  4. Archaeological predictive model set.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-03-01

    This report is the documentation for Task 7 of the Statewide Archaeological Predictive Model Set. The goal of this project is to : develop a set of statewide predictive models to assist the planning of transportation projects. PennDOT is developing t...

  5. Early Start Denver Model - intervention for de helt små børn med autisme

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brynskov, Cecilia

    2015-01-01

    Early Start Denver Model (ESDM) er en autismespecifik interventionsmetode, som er udviklet til helt små børn med autisme (0-4 år). Metoden fokuserer på at styrke den tidlige kontakt og barnets motivation, og den arbejder målrettet med de socio-kommunikative forløbere for sprog og med den tidlige...

  6. Wind power prediction models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levy, R.; Mcginness, H.

    1976-01-01

    Investigations were performed to predict the power available from the wind at the Goldstone, California, antenna site complex. The background for power prediction was derived from a statistical evaluation of available wind speed data records at this location and at nearby locations similarly situated within the Mojave desert. In addition to a model for power prediction over relatively long periods of time, an interim simulation model that produces sample wind speeds is described. The interim model furnishes uncorrelated sample speeds at hourly intervals that reproduce the statistical wind distribution at Goldstone. A stochastic simulation model to provide speed samples representative of both the statistical speed distributions and correlations is also discussed.

  7. Inverse and Predictive Modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Syracuse, Ellen Marie [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2017-09-27

    The LANL Seismo-Acoustic team has a strong capability in developing data-driven models that accurately predict a variety of observations. These models range from the simple – one-dimensional models that are constrained by a single dataset and can be used for quick and efficient predictions – to the complex – multidimensional models that are constrained by several types of data and result in more accurate predictions. Team members typically build models of geophysical characteristics of Earth and source distributions at scales of 1 to 1000s of km, the techniques used are applicable for other types of physical characteristics at an even greater range of scales. The following cases provide a snapshot of some of the modeling work done by the Seismo- Acoustic team at LANL.

  8. Coordinated Hard Sphere Mixture (CHaSM): A fast approximate model for oxide and silicate melts at extreme conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolf, A. S.; Asimow, P. D.; Stevenson, D. J.

    2015-12-01

    Recent first-principles calculations (e.g. Stixrude, 2009; de Koker, 2013), shock-wave experiments (Mosenfelder, 2009), and diamond-anvil cell investigations (Sanloup, 2013) indicate that silicate melts undergo complex structural evolution at high pressure. The observed increase in cation-coordination (e.g. Karki, 2006; 2007) induces higher compressibilities and lower adiabatic thermal gradients in melts as compared with their solid counterparts. These properties are crucial for understanding the evolution of impact-generated magma oceans, which are dominated by the poorly understood behavior of silicates at mantle pressures and temperatures (e.g. Stixrude et al. 2009). Probing these conditions is difficult for both theory and experiment, especially given the large compositional space (MgO-SiO2-FeO-Al2O3-etc). We develop a new model to understand and predict the behavior of oxide and silicate melts at extreme P-T conditions (Wolf et al., 2015). The Coordinated Hard Sphere Mixture (CHaSM) extends the Hard Sphere mixture model, accounting for the range of coordination states for each cation in the liquid. Using approximate analytic expressions for the hard sphere model, this fast statistical method compliments classical and first-principles methods, providing accurate thermodynamic and structural property predictions for melts. This framework is applied to the MgO system, where model parameters are trained on a collection of crystal polymorphs, producing realistic predictions of coordination evolution and the equation of state of MgO melt over a wide P-T range. Typical Mg-coordination numbers are predicted to evolve continuously from 5.25 (0 GPa) to 8.5 (250 GPa), comparing favorably with first-principles Molecular Dynamics (MD) simulations. We begin extending the model to a simplified mantle chemistry using empirical potentials (generally accurate over moderate pressure ranges, consuming classical MD calculations. This approach also sheds light on the universality

  9. Genomic-Enabled Prediction in Maize Using Kernel Models with Genotype × Environment Interaction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bandeira E Sousa, Massaine; Cuevas, Jaime; de Oliveira Couto, Evellyn Giselly; Pérez-Rodríguez, Paulino; Jarquín, Diego; Fritsche-Neto, Roberto; Burgueño, Juan; Crossa, Jose

    2017-06-07

    Multi-environment trials are routinely conducted in plant breeding to select candidates for the next selection cycle. In this study, we compare the prediction accuracy of four developed genomic-enabled prediction models: (1) single-environment, main genotypic effect model (SM); (2) multi-environment, main genotypic effects model (MM); (3) multi-environment, single variance G×E deviation model (MDs); and (4) multi-environment, environment-specific variance G×E deviation model (MDe). Each of these four models were fitted using two kernel methods: a linear kernel Genomic Best Linear Unbiased Predictor, GBLUP (GB), and a nonlinear kernel Gaussian kernel (GK). The eight model-method combinations were applied to two extensive Brazilian maize data sets (HEL and USP data sets), having different numbers of maize hybrids evaluated in different environments for grain yield (GY), plant height (PH), and ear height (EH). Results show that the MDe and the MDs models fitted with the Gaussian kernel (MDe-GK, and MDs-GK) had the highest prediction accuracy. For GY in the HEL data set, the increase in prediction accuracy of SM-GK over SM-GB ranged from 9 to 32%. For the MM, MDs, and MDe models, the increase in prediction accuracy of GK over GB ranged from 9 to 49%. For GY in the USP data set, the increase in prediction accuracy of SM-GK over SM-GB ranged from 0 to 7%. For the MM, MDs, and MDe models, the increase in prediction accuracy of GK over GB ranged from 34 to 70%. For traits PH and EH, gains in prediction accuracy of models with GK compared to models with GB were smaller than those achieved in GY. Also, these gains in prediction accuracy decreased when a more difficult prediction problem was studied. Copyright © 2017 Bandeira e Sousa et al.

  10. Genomic-Enabled Prediction in Maize Using Kernel Models with Genotype × Environment Interaction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Massaine Bandeira e Sousa

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Multi-environment trials are routinely conducted in plant breeding to select candidates for the next selection cycle. In this study, we compare the prediction accuracy of four developed genomic-enabled prediction models: (1 single-environment, main genotypic effect model (SM; (2 multi-environment, main genotypic effects model (MM; (3 multi-environment, single variance G×E deviation model (MDs; and (4 multi-environment, environment-specific variance G×E deviation model (MDe. Each of these four models were fitted using two kernel methods: a linear kernel Genomic Best Linear Unbiased Predictor, GBLUP (GB, and a nonlinear kernel Gaussian kernel (GK. The eight model-method combinations were applied to two extensive Brazilian maize data sets (HEL and USP data sets, having different numbers of maize hybrids evaluated in different environments for grain yield (GY, plant height (PH, and ear height (EH. Results show that the MDe and the MDs models fitted with the Gaussian kernel (MDe-GK, and MDs-GK had the highest prediction accuracy. For GY in the HEL data set, the increase in prediction accuracy of SM-GK over SM-GB ranged from 9 to 32%. For the MM, MDs, and MDe models, the increase in prediction accuracy of GK over GB ranged from 9 to 49%. For GY in the USP data set, the increase in prediction accuracy of SM-GK over SM-GB ranged from 0 to 7%. For the MM, MDs, and MDe models, the increase in prediction accuracy of GK over GB ranged from 34 to 70%. For traits PH and EH, gains in prediction accuracy of models with GK compared to models with GB were smaller than those achieved in GY. Also, these gains in prediction accuracy decreased when a more difficult prediction problem was studied.

  11. Novel SM-like Higgs decay into displaced heavy neutrino pairs in U(1){sup ′} models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Accomando, Elena [School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Southampton,Highfield, Southampton SO17 1BJ (United Kingdom); Rose, Luigi Delle; Moretti, Stefano [School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Southampton,Highfield, Southampton SO17 1BJ (United Kingdom); Particle Physics Department, Rutherford Appleton Laboratory,Chilton, Didcot, Oxon OX11 0QX (United Kingdom); Olaiya, Emmanuel; Shepherd-Themistocleous, Claire H. [Particle Physics Department, Rutherford Appleton Laboratory,Chilton, Didcot, Oxon OX11 0QX (United Kingdom)

    2017-04-13

    We examine the observability of heavy neutrino (ν{sub h}) signatures of a U(1){sup ′} enlarged Standard Model (SM) encompassing three heavy Majorana neutrinos alongside the known light neutrino states at the the Large Hadron Collider (LHC). We show that heavy neutrinos can be rather long-lived particles producing distinctive displaced vertices that can be accessed in the CERN LHC detectors. We concentrate here on the gluon fusion production mechanism gg→H{sub 1,2}→ν{sub h}ν{sub h}, where H{sub 1} is the discovered SM-like Higgs and H{sub 2} is a heavier state, yielding displaced leptons following ν{sub h} decays into weak gauge bosons. Using data collected by the end of the LHC Run 2, these signatures would prove to be accessible with negligibly small background.

  12. Cultural Resource Predictive Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-10-01

    CR cultural resource CRM cultural resource management CRPM Cultural Resource Predictive Modeling DoD Department of Defense ESTCP Environmental...resource management ( CRM ) legal obligations under NEPA and the NHPA, military installations need to demonstrate that CRM decisions are based on objective...maxim “one size does not fit all,” and demonstrate that DoD installations have many different CRM needs that can and should be met through a variety

  13. SChiSM2: creating interactive web page annotations of molecular structure models using Jmol.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cammer, Stephen

    2007-02-01

    SChiSM2 is a web server-based program for creating web pages that include interactive molecular graphics using the freely-available applet, Jmol, for illustration. The program works with Internet Explorer and Firefox on Windows, Safari and Firefox on Mac OSX and Firefox on Linux. The program can be accessed at the following address: http://ci.vbi.vt.edu/cammer/schism2.html.

  14. Candidate Prediction Models and Methods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg; Nielsen, Torben Skov; Madsen, Henrik

    2005-01-01

    This document lists candidate prediction models for Work Package 3 (WP3) of the PSO-project called ``Intelligent wind power prediction systems'' (FU4101). The main focus is on the models transforming numerical weather predictions into predictions of power production. The document also outlines...... the possibilities w.r.t. different numerical weather predictions actually available to the project....

  15. Predictive Surface Complexation Modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sverjensky, Dimitri A. [Johns Hopkins Univ., Baltimore, MD (United States). Dept. of Earth and Planetary Sciences

    2016-11-29

    Surface complexation plays an important role in the equilibria and kinetics of processes controlling the compositions of soilwaters and groundwaters, the fate of contaminants in groundwaters, and the subsurface storage of CO2 and nuclear waste. Over the last several decades, many dozens of individual experimental studies have addressed aspects of surface complexation that have contributed to an increased understanding of its role in natural systems. However, there has been no previous attempt to develop a model of surface complexation that can be used to link all the experimental studies in order to place them on a predictive basis. Overall, my research has successfully integrated the results of the work of many experimentalists published over several decades. For the first time in studies of the geochemistry of the mineral-water interface, a practical predictive capability for modeling has become available. The predictive correlations developed in my research now enable extrapolations of experimental studies to provide estimates of surface chemistry for systems not yet studied experimentally and for natural and anthropogenically perturbed systems.

  16. Precise predictions within the two-Higgs-doublet model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Altenkamp, Lukas

    2017-01-01

    We consider the Two-Higgs-Doublet Model (THDM) where the Standard Model (SM) field content is extended by adding a further Higgs-boson doublet. This results in five Higgs bosons, two CP-even, one CP-odd and a charged Higgs boson and it's anti-particle. In order to provide accurate and reliable predictions within this model, next-to-leading order calculations are necessary. To this end, we perform a renormalization procedure and adopt four new renormalization schemes. The counterterm Feynman rules as well as the renormalization conditions are implemented into an FeynArts model file, yielding the possibility to generate amplitudes and squared matrix elements for arbitrary processes which is a major contribution to the automation of higher-order calculations. As an application we investigate the decay of a light, CP-even, SM-like Higgs boson into four fermions in the THDM. To this end, we extend the program Prophecy4f and compute the partial decay widths for different benchmark scenarios. For all investigated scenarios, we observe that the THDM widths are bounded by the SM widths and that the deviations are larger at higher order. The renormalization group equations have been solved in order to investigate the renormalization scale dependence which gives an estimate of the theoretical uncertainty arising due to the truncation of the perturbation series. By comparing the results of different renormalization schemes we determine for which parameter regions each scheme provides reliable predictions.

  17. Precise predictions within the two-Higgs-doublet model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Altenkamp, Lukas

    2017-02-21

    We consider the Two-Higgs-Doublet Model (THDM) where the Standard Model (SM) field content is extended by adding a further Higgs-boson doublet. This results in five Higgs bosons, two CP-even, one CP-odd and a charged Higgs boson and it's anti-particle. In order to provide accurate and reliable predictions within this model, next-to-leading order calculations are necessary. To this end, we perform a renormalization procedure and adopt four new renormalization schemes. The counterterm Feynman rules as well as the renormalization conditions are implemented into an FeynArts model file, yielding the possibility to generate amplitudes and squared matrix elements for arbitrary processes which is a major contribution to the automation of higher-order calculations. As an application we investigate the decay of a light, CP-even, SM-like Higgs boson into four fermions in the THDM. To this end, we extend the program Prophecy4f and compute the partial decay widths for different benchmark scenarios. For all investigated scenarios, we observe that the THDM widths are bounded by the SM widths and that the deviations are larger at higher order. The renormalization group equations have been solved in order to investigate the renormalization scale dependence which gives an estimate of the theoretical uncertainty arising due to the truncation of the perturbation series. By comparing the results of different renormalization schemes we determine for which parameter regions each scheme provides reliable predictions.

  18. Updated NLL Results for $B \\to (Xs,Xd) \\gamma$ in and beyond the SM

    CERN Document Server

    Hurth, Tobias; Porod, Werner

    2004-01-01

    We present general model-independent formulae for the branching ratios and the direct tagged CP asymmetries for the inclusive B -> Xd gamma and B -> Xs gamma modes. We also update the corresponding SM predictions.

  19. Community health workers speak out about the Kin KeeperSM model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mousa, Shimaa M; Brooks, Emily; Dietrich, Monika; Henderson, Aisha; McLean, Casey; Patricia Williams, Karen

    2010-06-01

    Community health workers (CHWs) informed students and researcher alike on the Kin Keeper(SM) Cancer Prevention Intervention. Students interested in medicine, guided by faculty, conducted a focus group session with 13 CHWs to find out if the intervention was effective for delivering breast and cervical cancer education. Strengths reported were (1) cultural appropriateness, (2) home visits, (3) CHW resource kits, and (4) increased awareness. The barriers were privacy perceptions and scheduling home visits. Overall, the CHWs indicated that the intervention was effective and flexible enough to accommodate the African American, Latina, and Arab groups of women.

  20. A systems approach for the development of a sustainable community--the application of the sensitivity model (SM).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chan, Shih-Liang; Huang, Shu-Li

    2004-09-01

    Corresponding to the concept of 'Think globally, act locally and plan regionally' of sustainable development, this paper discusses the approach of planning a sustainable community in terms of systems thinking. We apply a systems tool, the sensitivity model (SM), to build a model of the development of the community of Ping-Ding, located adjacent to the Yang-Ming-Shan National Park, Taiwan. The major issue in the development of Ping-Ding is the conflict between environmental conservation and the development of a local tourism industry. With the involvement of local residents, planners, and interest groups, a system model of 26 variables was defined to identify characteristics of Ping-Ding through pattern recognition. Two scenarios concerning the sustainable development of Ping-Ding are simulated with interlinked feedbacks from variables. The results of the analysis indicate that the development of Ping-Ding would be better served by the planning of agriculture and the tourism industry. The advantages and shortfalls of applying SM in the current planning environment of Taiwan are also discussed to conclude this paper.

  1. On the Predictiveness of Single-Field Inflationary Models

    CERN Document Server

    Burgess, C.P.; Trott, Michael

    2014-01-01

    We re-examine the predictiveness of single-field inflationary models and discuss how an unknown UV completion can complicate determining inflationary model parameters from observations, even from precision measurements. Besides the usual naturalness issues associated with having a shallow inflationary potential, we describe another issue for inflation, namely, unknown UV physics modifies the running of Standard Model (SM) parameters and thereby introduces uncertainty into the potential inflationary predictions. We illustrate this point using the minimal Higgs Inflationary scenario, which is arguably the most predictive single-field model on the market, because its predictions for $A_s$, $r$ and $n_s$ are made using only one new free parameter beyond those measured in particle physics experiments, and run up to the inflationary regime. We find that this issue can already have observable effects. At the same time, this UV-parameter dependence in the Renormalization Group allows Higgs Inflation to occur (in prin...

  2. Optical isotype shifts of 146Sm and 151Sm

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eastham, D.A.; Walker, P.M.; Griffith, J.A.R.; Evans, D.E.; England, J.G.; Grant, I.S.

    1984-01-01

    We have measured the optical isotope shifts of 146 Sm and 151 Sm by laser resonance fluorescence. From these measurements the changes in the mean square nuclear radii are: delta 2 > (A=144 to 146)=0.266(10) fm 2 , and delta 2 > (A=151 to 152)=0.262(10) fm 2 . These results, together with those of the stable isotopes, show that the average nuclear expansion of samarium can be accounted for by the liquid drop model with deformations. (orig.)

  3. Predictions for $b \\rightarrow ss\\overline{d}$ and $b \\rightarrow dd\\overline{s}$ decays in the SM and with new physics

    CERN Document Server

    Pirjol, Dan

    2010-01-01

    The b -> ssdbar and b -> ddsbar decays are highly suppressed in the SM, and are thus good probes of new physics (NP) effects. We discuss in detail the structure of the relevant SM effective Hamiltonian pointing out the presence of nonlocal contributions which can be about \\lambda^{-4} (m_c^2/m_t^2) ~ 30% of the local operators (\\lambda = 0.21 is the Cabibbo angle). The matrix elements of the local operators are computed with little hadronic uncertainty by relating them through flavor SU(3) to the observed \\Delta S = 0 decays. We identify a general NP mechanism which can lead to the branching fractions of the b\\to ss\\bar d modes at or just below the present experimental bounds, while satisfying the bounds from K-Kbar and B_{(s)}-Bbar_{(s)} mixing. It involves the exchange of a NP field carrying a conserved charge, broken only by its flavor couplings. The size of branching fractions within MFV, NMFV and general flavor violating NP are also predicted. We show that in the future energy scales higher than 10^3 TeV...

  4. Confidence scores for prediction models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gerds, Thomas Alexander; van de Wiel, MA

    2011-01-01

    In medical statistics, many alternative strategies are available for building a prediction model based on training data. Prediction models are routinely compared by means of their prediction performance in independent validation data. If only one data set is available for training and validation,...

  5. Effects of various potential models for fourth SM family (Ψ4) quarkonia production at e''+ e''- colliders

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ciftci, R.; Sultansoy, S.

    2002-01-01

    In the framework of democratic mass matrix (DMM) approach the lower limit on the fourth standard model (SM) family quarkonia mass is 640 GeV, so future e+e- colliders (TESLA, JLC/NLC and CLIC) with a good beam resolution will give opportunity to investigate properties of vector (ψ 4 ) quarkonia. We estimate ψ 4 production cross-sections by using various potential models (Coulomb, Martin, Cornell and Richardson). Signatures of the process e''+e''-→ψ 4 are discussed taking into account any decay modes of y4 quarkonia. Especially ψ 4 →and ψ 4 →γH channels will open new window for investigation of Higgs boson properties

  6. Standard-model predictions for W-pair production in electron-positron collisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beenakker, W.; Denner, A.

    1994-03-01

    We review the status of the theoretical predictions for W-pair production in e + e - collisions within the electroweak standard model (SM). We first consider for on-shell W-bosons the lowest-order cross-section within the SM, the general effects of anomalous couplings, the radiative corrections within the SM, and approximations for them. Then we discuss the inclusion of finite-width effects in lowest order and the existing results for radiative corrections to off-shell W-pair production, and we outline the general strategy to calculate radiative corrections within the pole scheme. We summarize the theoretical predictions for the total and partial W-boson widths including radiative corrections and discuss the quality of an improved Born approximation. Finally we provide a general discussion of the structure-function method to calculate large logarithmic higher-order corrections associated with collinear photon radiation. (orig.)

  7. PREDICTED PERCENTAGE DISSATISFIED (PPD) MODEL ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    HOD

    their low power requirements, are relatively cheap and are environment friendly. ... PREDICTED PERCENTAGE DISSATISFIED MODEL EVALUATION OF EVAPORATIVE COOLING ... The performance of direct evaporative coolers is a.

  8. Distinguishing a SM-like MSSM Higgs boson from SM Higgs boson at muon collider

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Singhal, Jai Kumar; Singh, Sardar; Nagawat, Ashok K.

    2007-01-01

    We explore the possibility of distinguishing the SM-like MSSM Higgs boson from the SM Higgs boson via Higgs boson pair production at future muon collider. We study the behavior of the production cross-section in SM and MSSM with Higgs boson mass for various MSSM parameters tanβ and m A . We observe that at fixed CM energy, in the SM, the total cross-section increases with the increase in Higgs boson mass whereas this trend is reversed for the MSSM. The changes that occur for the MSSM in comparison to the SM predictions are quantified in terms of the relative percentage deviation in cross-section. The observed deviations in cross-section for different choices of Higgs boson masses suggest that the measurements of the cross-section could possibly distinguish the SM-like MSSM Higgs boson from the SM Higgs boson. (author)

  9. (MS)SM-like models on smooth Calabi-Yau manifolds from all three heterotic string theories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Groot Nibbelink, Stefan

    2015-09-01

    We perform model searches on smooth Calabi-Yau compactifications for both the supersymmetric E 8 x E 8 and SO(32) as well as for the non-supersymmetric SO(16) x SO(16) heterotic strings simultaneously. We consider line bundle backgrounds on both favorable CICYs with relatively small h 11 and the Schoen manifold. Using Gram matrices we systematically analyze the combined consequences of the Bianchi identities and the tree-level Donaldson-Uhlenbeck-Yau equations inside the Kaehler cone. In order to evaluate the model building potential of the three heterotic theories on the various geometries, we perform computer-aided scans. We have generated a large number of GUT-like models (up to over a few hundred thousand on the various geometries for the three heterotic theories) which become (MS)SM-like upon using a freely acting Wilson line. For all three heterotic theories we present tables and figures summarizing the potentially phenomenologically interesting models which were obtained during our model scans.

  10. Bootstrap prediction and Bayesian prediction under misspecified models

    OpenAIRE

    Fushiki, Tadayoshi

    2005-01-01

    We consider a statistical prediction problem under misspecified models. In a sense, Bayesian prediction is an optimal prediction method when an assumed model is true. Bootstrap prediction is obtained by applying Breiman's `bagging' method to a plug-in prediction. Bootstrap prediction can be considered to be an approximation to the Bayesian prediction under the assumption that the model is true. However, in applications, there are frequently deviations from the assumed model. In this paper, bo...

  11. Strategisch management (SM)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nagel, A.P.; Vercouteren, W.J.J.C.; Hoek, van der N.; Lohman, T.A.M.; Vermeulen, N.

    1996-01-01

    Kernbegrippen die bij de discussie van strategisch management (SM) aan de orde komen, zijn productinnovatie op ondernemingsniveau (oftewel strategische productinnovatie, SPI) en technologiestrategie. In dit artikel wordt een raamwerk van SM geintroduceerd. Daartoe worden de verschillende fasen van

  12. MODEL PREDICTIVE CONTROL FUNDAMENTALS

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2012-07-02

    Jul 2, 2012 ... signal based on a process model, coping with constraints on inputs and ... paper, we will present an introduction to the theory and application of MPC with Matlab codes ... section 5 presents the simulation results and section 6.

  13. Melanoma Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing melanoma cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  14. Modelling bankruptcy prediction models in Slovak companies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kovacova Maria

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available An intensive research from academics and practitioners has been provided regarding models for bankruptcy prediction and credit risk management. In spite of numerous researches focusing on forecasting bankruptcy using traditional statistics techniques (e.g. discriminant analysis and logistic regression and early artificial intelligence models (e.g. artificial neural networks, there is a trend for transition to machine learning models (support vector machines, bagging, boosting, and random forest to predict bankruptcy one year prior to the event. Comparing the performance of this with unconventional approach with results obtained by discriminant analysis, logistic regression, and neural networks application, it has been found that bagging, boosting, and random forest models outperform the others techniques, and that all prediction accuracy in the testing sample improves when the additional variables are included. On the other side the prediction accuracy of old and well known bankruptcy prediction models is quiet high. Therefore, we aim to analyse these in some way old models on the dataset of Slovak companies to validate their prediction ability in specific conditions. Furthermore, these models will be modelled according to new trends by calculating the influence of elimination of selected variables on the overall prediction ability of these models.

  15. Predictive models of moth development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Degree-day models link ambient temperature to insect life-stages, making such models valuable tools in integrated pest management. These models increase management efficacy by predicting pest phenology. In Wisconsin, the top insect pest of cranberry production is the cranberry fruitworm, Acrobasis v...

  16. An empirical model of Onecut binding activity at the sea urchin SM50 C-element gene regulatory region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otim, Ochan

    2017-01-01

    Studying the formation of endoskeleton in many species is complex and difficult. The sea urchin embryo offers an unparalleled platform for understanding this process because of the ease with which its skeletogenic mesenchyme cells can be manipulated. In this study, preliminary evidence from biochemical studies towards understanding the role of the Onecut transcription factor during sea urchin skeletogenic mesenchyme cell specification is presented. Based on the evidence, an empirical model is proposed showing how Onecut, together with associated co-factors, may be using the C-element of the SM50 gene regulatory region in advance of the sea urchin Strongylocentrotus purpuratus spicule development. In the model, Onecut recognizes and binds the DNA sequence CATCGATCTC in the C-element without temporal restriction. Onecut then utilizes different sets of co-factors to switch from its unknown function early in development (four cell stage to the mesenchyme blastula stage), to its known role in the oral-aboral boundary thereafter. At the writing of this report, definitive evidence as to whether the "early" factors are expressed in all cells except the micromere lineages, or whether the "late" factors are expressed in micromere descendants or ectodermal precursors only are lacking. The former would suggest a possible Onecut repression function for the early co-factors outside the micromere lineages; the latter scenario would suggest a Onecut activation function for the late co-factors in the presumptive ciliary band.

  17. Predictive Models and Computational Embryology

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA’s ‘virtual embryo’ project is building an integrative systems biology framework for predictive models of developmental toxicity. One schema involves a knowledge-driven adverse outcome pathway (AOP) framework utilizing information from public databases, standardized ontologies...

  18. Predictive Modeling in Race Walking

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krzysztof Wiktorowicz

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the use of linear and nonlinear multivariable models as tools to support training process of race walkers. These models are calculated using data collected from race walkers’ training events and they are used to predict the result over a 3 km race based on training loads. The material consists of 122 training plans for 21 athletes. In order to choose the best model leave-one-out cross-validation method is used. The main contribution of the paper is to propose the nonlinear modifications for linear models in order to achieve smaller prediction error. It is shown that the best model is a modified LASSO regression with quadratic terms in the nonlinear part. This model has the smallest prediction error and simplified structure by eliminating some of the predictors.

  19. The Neutronic Effect of Zr-rod and Sm2O3-disk in the Model of Kartini Reactor Fuel Element

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Edi-Trijono-Budisantoso; Bambang-Sumarsono; Tri-Wulan-Tjiptono

    2000-01-01

    The model of Kartini fuel element has been constructed using a variationof materials in it fuels. For basic model, the construction of fuel assemblyis a rod type fuel element with SS-304 cladding and UZrH (8.5 % wt U in 20 %enrichment) as a fuel meat and graphite reflector at the both ends of fuelmeat. By using is basic construction, the material then varied in 4 models asthe following: 1) The model with the Zr-rod in 5.76 mm diameter, is insertedat the axis of fuel meat; 2) The model with Sm 2 O 3 -disk in 1.28 mmthickness, is inserted at the both ends of fuel meat; 3) The compound ofmodel 1 and model 2; 4) The basic construction of cell without Zr-rod andSm 2 O 3 -disk. The neutronic-behavior of each model then calculated usingWIMSD4 and the result then represented as a graphics form of the correlationof parameters as the following: 1) The correlation between model and itneutron multiplication factor; 2) The comparison of neutron flux distributionfor each model. By the graphic can be concluded, that Zr-rod in the fuelelement can reduce power peaking factor to 82 % with the effect of neutronmultiplication factor reduced to 98 %, while the insertion of Sm 2 O 3 -disk atthe both ends of fuel meat can make neutron multiplication factor reduce to97 % but unfortunately the neutron peaking factor increase to 101 %. Theinsertion of Zr-rod in the axis of fuel meat, increase the safety margin offuel utilization, while the insertion of Sm 2 O 3 -disk at the both ends offuel meat can make it as the burn-able poison that maintain the neutronmultiplication factor stable for a long time utilization. (author)

  20. The direct limit on the Higgs Mass and the SM Fit

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chanowitz, Michael S.

    2003-01-01

    Because of two 3σ anomalies, the Standard Model (SM) fit of the precision electroweak data has a poor confidence level, CL = 0.02. Since both anomalies involve challenging systematic issues, it might appear that the SM could still be valid if the anomalies resulted from underestimated systematic error. Indeed the CL of the global fit could then increase to 0.71, but that fit predicts a small Higgs boson mass, m H = 45 GeV, that is inconsistent at 95% CL with the lower limit, m H > 114 GeV, established by direct searches. The data then favor new physics whether the anomalous measurements are excluded from the fit or not, and the Higgs boson mass cannot be predicted until the new physics is understood. Some measure of statistical fluctuation would be needed to maintain the validity of the SM. New physics is favored, but the SM is not definitively excluded

  1. Contribution of Sequence Motif, Chromatin State, and DNA Structure Features to Predictive Models of Transcription Factor Binding in Yeast.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsai, Zing Tsung-Yeh; Shiu, Shin-Han; Tsai, Huai-Kuang

    2015-08-01

    Transcription factor (TF) binding is determined by the presence of specific sequence motifs (SM) and chromatin accessibility, where the latter is influenced by both chromatin state (CS) and DNA structure (DS) properties. Although SM, CS, and DS have been used to predict TF binding sites, a predictive model that jointly considers CS and DS has not been developed to predict either TF-specific binding or general binding properties of TFs. Using budding yeast as model, we found that machine learning classifiers trained with either CS or DS features alone perform better in predicting TF-specific binding compared to SM-based classifiers. In addition, simultaneously considering CS and DS further improves the accuracy of the TF binding predictions, indicating the highly complementary nature of these two properties. The contributions of SM, CS, and DS features to binding site predictions differ greatly between TFs, allowing TF-specific predictions and potentially reflecting different TF binding mechanisms. In addition, a "TF-agnostic" predictive model based on three DNA "intrinsic properties" (in silico predicted nucleosome occupancy, major groove geometry, and dinucleotide free energy) that can be calculated from genomic sequences alone has performance that rivals the model incorporating experiment-derived data. This intrinsic property model allows prediction of binding regions not only across TFs, but also across DNA-binding domain families with distinct structural folds. Furthermore, these predicted binding regions can help identify TF binding sites that have a significant impact on target gene expression. Because the intrinsic property model allows prediction of binding regions across DNA-binding domain families, it is TF agnostic and likely describes general binding potential of TFs. Thus, our findings suggest that it is feasible to establish a TF agnostic model for identifying functional regulatory regions in potentially any sequenced genome.

  2. Contribution of Sequence Motif, Chromatin State, and DNA Structure Features to Predictive Models of Transcription Factor Binding in Yeast.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zing Tsung-Yeh Tsai

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Transcription factor (TF binding is determined by the presence of specific sequence motifs (SM and chromatin accessibility, where the latter is influenced by both chromatin state (CS and DNA structure (DS properties. Although SM, CS, and DS have been used to predict TF binding sites, a predictive model that jointly considers CS and DS has not been developed to predict either TF-specific binding or general binding properties of TFs. Using budding yeast as model, we found that machine learning classifiers trained with either CS or DS features alone perform better in predicting TF-specific binding compared to SM-based classifiers. In addition, simultaneously considering CS and DS further improves the accuracy of the TF binding predictions, indicating the highly complementary nature of these two properties. The contributions of SM, CS, and DS features to binding site predictions differ greatly between TFs, allowing TF-specific predictions and potentially reflecting different TF binding mechanisms. In addition, a "TF-agnostic" predictive model based on three DNA "intrinsic properties" (in silico predicted nucleosome occupancy, major groove geometry, and dinucleotide free energy that can be calculated from genomic sequences alone has performance that rivals the model incorporating experiment-derived data. This intrinsic property model allows prediction of binding regions not only across TFs, but also across DNA-binding domain families with distinct structural folds. Furthermore, these predicted binding regions can help identify TF binding sites that have a significant impact on target gene expression. Because the intrinsic property model allows prediction of binding regions across DNA-binding domain families, it is TF agnostic and likely describes general binding potential of TFs. Thus, our findings suggest that it is feasible to establish a TF agnostic model for identifying functional regulatory regions in potentially any sequenced genome.

  3. Inverting near-surface models from virtual-source gathers (SM Division Outstanding ECS Award Lecture)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruigrok, Elmer; Vossen, Caron; Paulssen, Hanneke

    2017-04-01

    The Groningen gas field is a massive natural gas accumulation in the north-east of the Netherlands. Decades of production have led to significant compaction of the reservoir rock. The (differential) compaction is thought to have reactivated existing faults and to be the main driver of induced seismicity. The potential damage at the surface is largely affected by the state of the near surface. Thin and soft sedimentary layers can lead to large amplifications. By measuring the wavefield at different depth levels, near-surface properties can directly be estimated from the recordings. Seismicity in the Groningen area is monitored primarily with an array of vertical arrays. In the nineties a network of 8 boreholes was deployed. Since 2015, this network has been expanded with 70 new boreholes. Each new borehole consists of an accelerometer at the surface and four downhole geophones with a vertical spacing of 50 m. We apply seismic interferometry to local seismicity, for each borehole individually. Doing so, we obtain the responses as if there were virtual sources at the lowest geophones and receivers at the other depth levels. From the retrieved direct waves and reflections, we invert for P- & S- velocity and Q models. We discuss different implementations of seismic interferometry and the subsequent inversion. The inverted near-surface properties are used to improve both the source location and the hazard assessment.

  4. Sorption of samarium in soils: influence of soil properties and Sm concentration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ramirez-Guinart, Oriol; Salaberria, Aitor; Rigol, Anna; Vidal, Miquel [Analytical Chemistry department, Faculty of Chemistry, University of Barcelona, Marti i Franques 1-11, 08028, Barcelona (Spain)

    2014-07-01

    Due to the fact that barriers of Deep Geological Repositories (DGR) may lose efficiency before the radioisotopes present in the High Level Radioactive Waste (HLRW) completely decay, it is possible that, in the long-term, radioactive leachates may escape from the DGR and reach the soil and water compartments in the biosphere. Therefore, it is required to examine the interaction and mobility of radionuclides present in the HLRW, or their chemical analogues, to predict the impact of their eventual incorporation in the biosphere and to assess the derived risk. Although relevant data have been recently obtained for a few radionuclides in soils, there are still some important gaps for some radionuclides, such us for samarium (Sm). Sm is a lanthanide that, besides being considered as a natural analogue of actinides, may also be present in HLRW in the form of the radioactive isotope {sup 151}Sm. The main objective of this work was to obtain sorption data (K{sub d}) of {sup 151}Sm gathered from a set of soil samples physicochemical fully-characterized (pH, texture, cationic exchange capacity, soil solution cationic composition, organic matter, carbonate and metallic oxides content, etc.). Additionally, as an alternative for testing sorption capacity of radionuclides in soils is the use of the corresponding stable isotope or a chemical analogue, the influence of Sm concentration was also checked. To evaluate {sup 151}Sm sorption, batch assays were carried out for each soil sample, which consisted in a pre-equilibration step of 2 g of each soil with 50 ml of double deionised water, and a subsequent equilibration step with the same solution, but labelled with {sup 151}Sm. The activity of {sup 151}Sm in initial and final solutions was measured by liquid scintillation and K{sub d} ({sup 151}Sm) data were calculated. The reversibly sorbed fraction was estimated by the application of a single extraction test, with double deionised water, to soil residues coming from the previous

  5. Excited states in 146Sm and 147Sm

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kownacki, J.; Sujkowski, Z.; Hammaren, E.; Liukkonen, E.; Piiparinen, M.; Lindblad, Th.; Ryde, H.

    1979-10-01

    The sup(144,146)Nd(α,xn) and sup(146,148)Nd( 3 He,xn) reactions with Esub(α) = 20 - 43 MeV and E 3 sub(He) = 19 - 27 MeV are used to investigate excited states in the isotopes 146 Sm and 147 Sm. The experiments involve measurements of singles γ-ray spectra and conversion electron spectra, γ-ray angular distributions and three parameter (E sub(γ)E sub(γ) time) coincidences. From these experiments information is obtained for states with spin up to I = 13 + and I = 27/2 - , respectively, These states are interpeted within the framework of the cluster-vibration model (CVM) as well as the shell model. (author)

  6. Arterial injury promotes medial chondrogenesis in Sm22 knockout mice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Jianbin; Yang, Maozhou; Jiang, Hong; Ju, Donghong; Zheng, Jian-Pu; Xu, Zhonghui; Liao, Tang-Dong; Li, Li

    2011-04-01

    Expression of SM22 (also known as SM22alpha and transgelin), a vascular smooth muscle cells (VSMCs) marker, is down-regulated in arterial diseases involving medial osteochondrogenesis. We investigated the effect of SM22 deficiency in a mouse artery injury model to determine the role of SM22 in arterial chondrogenesis. Sm22 knockout (Sm22(-/-)) mice developed prominent medial chondrogenesis 2 weeks after carotid denudation as evidenced by the enhanced expression of chondrogenic markers including type II collagen, aggrecan, osteopontin, bone morphogenetic protein 2, and SRY-box containing gene 9 (SOX9). This was concomitant with suppression of VSMC key transcription factor myocardin and of VSMC markers such as SM α-actin and myosin heavy chain. The conversion tendency from myogenesis to chondrogenesis was also observed in primary Sm22(-/-) VSMCs and in a VSMC line after Sm22 knockdown: SM22 deficiency altered VSMC morphology with compromised stress fibre formation and increased actin dynamics. Meanwhile, the expression level of Sox9 mRNA was up-regulated while the mRNA levels of myocardin and VSMC markers were down-regulated, indicating a pro-chondrogenic transcriptional switch in SM22-deficient VSMCs. Furthermore, the increased expression of SOX9 was mediated by enhanced reactive oxygen species production and nuclear factor-κB pathway activation. These findings suggest that disruption of SM22 alters the actin cytoskeleton and promotes chondrogenic conversion of VSMCs.

  7. Aqueous Solvation of Polyalanine α-Helices with Specific Water Molecules and with the CPCM and SM5.2 Aqueous Continuum Models using Density Functional Theory

    OpenAIRE

    Marianski, Mateusz; Dannenberg, J. J.

    2012-01-01

    We present density functional theory (DFT) calculations at the X3LYP/D95(d,p) level on the solvation of polyalanine α-helices in water. The study includes the effects of discrete water molecules and the CPCM and AMSOL SM5.2 solvent continuum model both separately and in combination. We find that individual water molecules cooperatively hydrogen-bond to both the C- and N-termini of the helix, which results in increases in the dipole moment of the helix/water complex to more than the vector sum...

  8. Model predictive control using fuzzy decision functions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kaymak, U.; Costa Sousa, da J.M.

    2001-01-01

    Fuzzy predictive control integrates conventional model predictive control with techniques from fuzzy multicriteria decision making, translating the goals and the constraints to predictive control in a transparent way. The information regarding the (fuzzy) goals and the (fuzzy) constraints of the

  9. The Protein Kinase SmSnRK2.6 Positively Regulates Phenolic Acid Biosynthesis in Salvia miltiorrhiza by Interacting with SmAREB1.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jia, Yanyan; Bai, Zhenqing; Pei, Tianlin; Ding, Kai; Liang, Zongsuo; Gong, Yuehua

    2017-01-01

    Subclass III members of the sucrose non-fermenting-1-related protein kinase 2 (SnRK2) play essential roles in both the abscisic acid signaling and abiotic stress responses of plants by phosphorylating the downstream ABA-responsive element (ABRE)-binding proteins (AREB/ABFs). This comprehensive study investigated the function of new candidate genes, namely SmSnRK2.3 , SmSnRK2.6 , and SmAREB1 , with a view to breeding novel varieties of Salvia miltiorrhiza with improved stress tolerance stresses and more content of bioactive ingredients. Exogenous ABA strongly induced the expression of these genes. PlantCARE predicted several hormones and stress response cis -elements in their promoters. SmSnRK2.6 and SmAREB1 showed the highest expression levels in the leaves of S. miltiorrhiza seedlings, while SmSnRK2.3 exhibited a steady expression in their roots, stems, and leaves. A subcellular localization assay revealed that both SmSnRK2.3 and SmSnRK2.6 were located in the cell membrane, cytoplasm, and nucleus, whereas SmAREB1 was exclusive to the nucleus. Overexpressing SmSnRK2.3 did not significantly promote the accumulation of rosmarinic acid (RA) and salvianolic acid B (Sal B) in the transgenic S. miltiorrhiza hairy roots. However, overexpressing SmSnRK2.6 and SmAREB1 increased the contents of RA and Sal B, and regulated the expression levels of structural genes participating in the phenolic acid-branched and side-branched pathways, including SmPAL1 , SmC4H , Sm4CL1 , SmTAT , SmHPPR , SmRAS , SmCHS , SmCCR , SmCOMT , and SmHPPD . Furthermore, SmSnRK2.3 and SmSnRK2.6 interacted physically with SmAREB1. In summary, our results indicate that SmSnRK2.6 is involved in stress responses and can regulate structural gene transcripts to promote greater metabolic flux to the phenolic acid-branched pathway, via its interaction with SmAREB1 , a transcription factor. In this way, SmSnRK2.6 contributes to the positive regulation of phenolic acids in S. miltiorrhiza hairy roots.

  10. The Protein Kinase SmSnRK2.6 Positively Regulates Phenolic Acid Biosynthesis in Salvia miltiorrhiza by Interacting with SmAREB1

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yanyan Jia

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Subclass III members of the sucrose non-fermenting-1-related protein kinase 2 (SnRK2 play essential roles in both the abscisic acid signaling and abiotic stress responses of plants by phosphorylating the downstream ABA-responsive element (ABRE-binding proteins (AREB/ABFs. This comprehensive study investigated the function of new candidate genes, namely SmSnRK2.3, SmSnRK2.6, and SmAREB1, with a view to breeding novel varieties of Salvia miltiorrhiza with improved stress tolerance stresses and more content of bioactive ingredients. Exogenous ABA strongly induced the expression of these genes. PlantCARE predicted several hormones and stress response cis-elements in their promoters. SmSnRK2.6 and SmAREB1 showed the highest expression levels in the leaves of S. miltiorrhiza seedlings, while SmSnRK2.3 exhibited a steady expression in their roots, stems, and leaves. A subcellular localization assay revealed that both SmSnRK2.3 and SmSnRK2.6 were located in the cell membrane, cytoplasm, and nucleus, whereas SmAREB1 was exclusive to the nucleus. Overexpressing SmSnRK2.3 did not significantly promote the accumulation of rosmarinic acid (RA and salvianolic acid B (Sal B in the transgenic S. miltiorrhiza hairy roots. However, overexpressing SmSnRK2.6 and SmAREB1 increased the contents of RA and Sal B, and regulated the expression levels of structural genes participating in the phenolic acid-branched and side-branched pathways, including SmPAL1, SmC4H, Sm4CL1, SmTAT, SmHPPR, SmRAS, SmCHS, SmCCR, SmCOMT, and SmHPPD. Furthermore, SmSnRK2.3 and SmSnRK2.6 interacted physically with SmAREB1. In summary, our results indicate that SmSnRK2.6 is involved in stress responses and can regulate structural gene transcripts to promote greater metabolic flux to the phenolic acid-branched pathway, via its interaction with SmAREB1, a transcription factor. In this way, SmSnRK2.6 contributes to the positive regulation of phenolic acids in S. miltiorrhiza hairy roots.

  11. Systematic analysis of DEMETER-like DNA glycosylase genes shows lineage-specific Smi-miR7972 involved in SmDML1 regulation in Salvia miltiorrhiza.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jiang; Li, Caili; Lu, Shanfa

    2018-05-08

    DEMETER-like DNA glycosylases (DMLs) initiate the base excision repair-dependent DNA demethylation to regulate a wide range of biological processes in plants. Six putative SmDML genes, termed SmDML1-SmDML6, were identified from the genome of S. miltiorrhiza, an emerging model plant for Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) studies. Integrated analysis of gene structures, sequence features, conserved domains and motifs, phylogenetic analysis and differential expression showed the conservation and divergence of SmDMLs. SmDML1, SmDML2 and SmDML4 were significantly down-regulated by the treatment of 5Aza-dC, a general DNA methylation inhibitor, suggesting involvement of SmDMLs in genome DNA methylation change. SmDML1 was predicted and experimentally validated to be target of Smi-miR7972. Computational analysis of forty whole genome sequences and almost all of RNA-seq data from Lamiids revealed that MIR7972s were only distributed in some plants of the three orders, including Lamiales, Solanales and Boraginales, and the number of MIR7972 genes varied among species. It suggests that MIR7972 genes underwent expansion and loss during the evolution of some Lamiids species. Phylogenetic analysis of MIR7972s showed closer evolutionary relationships between MIR7972s in Boraginales and Solanales in comparison with Lamiales. These results provide a valuable resource for elucidating DNA demethylation mechanism in S. miltiorrhiza.

  12. Predictions of thermomagnetic properties of Laves phase compounds: TbAl2, GdAl2 and SmAl2 performed with ATOMIC MATTERS MFA computation system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michalski, Rafał; Zygadło, Jakub

    2018-04-01

    Recent calculations of properties of TbAl2 GdAl2 and SmAl2 single crystals, performed with our new computation system called ATOMIC MATTERS MFA are presented. We applied localized electron approach to describe the thermal evolution of Fine Electronic Structure of Tb3+, Gd3+ and Sm3+ ions over a wide temperature range and estimate Magnetocaloric Effect (MCE). Thermomagnetic properties of TbAl2, GdAl2 and SmAl2 were calculated based on the fine electronic structure of the 4f8, 4f7 and 4f5 electronic configuration of the Tb3+ and Gd3+ and Sm3+ ions, respectively. Our calculations yielded: magnetic moment value and direction; single-crystalline magnetization curves in zero field and in external magnetic field applied in various directions m(T,Bext); the 4f-electronic components of specific heat c4f(T,Bext); and temperature dependence of the magnetic entropy and isothermal entropy change with external magnetic field - ΔS(T,Bext). The cubic universal CEF parameters values used for all CEF calculations was taken from literature and recalculated for universal cubic parameters set for the RAl2 series: A4 = +7.164 Ka04 and A6 = -1.038 Ka06. Magnetic properties were found to be anisotropic due to cubic Laves phase C15 crystal structure symmetry. These studies reveal the importance of multipolar charge interactions when describing thermomagnetic properties of real 4f electronic systems and the effectiveness of an applied self-consistent molecular field in calculations for magnetic phase transition simulation.

  13. Model Prediction Control For Water Management Using Adaptive Prediction Accuracy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tian, X.; Negenborn, R.R.; Van Overloop, P.J.A.T.M.; Mostert, E.

    2014-01-01

    In the field of operational water management, Model Predictive Control (MPC) has gained popularity owing to its versatility and flexibility. The MPC controller, which takes predictions, time delay and uncertainties into account, can be designed for multi-objective management problems and for

  14. Iowa calibration of MEPDG performance prediction models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-06-01

    This study aims to improve the accuracy of AASHTO Mechanistic-Empirical Pavement Design Guide (MEPDG) pavement : performance predictions for Iowa pavement systems through local calibration of MEPDG prediction models. A total of 130 : representative p...

  15. Model complexity control for hydrologic prediction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schoups, G.; Van de Giesen, N.C.; Savenije, H.H.G.

    2008-01-01

    A common concern in hydrologic modeling is overparameterization of complex models given limited and noisy data. This leads to problems of parameter nonuniqueness and equifinality, which may negatively affect prediction uncertainties. A systematic way of controlling model complexity is therefore

  16. Nonlinear chaotic model for predicting storm surges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Siek

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper addresses the use of the methods of nonlinear dynamics and chaos theory for building a predictive chaotic model from time series. The chaotic model predictions are made by the adaptive local models based on the dynamical neighbors found in the reconstructed phase space of the observables. We implemented the univariate and multivariate chaotic models with direct and multi-steps prediction techniques and optimized these models using an exhaustive search method. The built models were tested for predicting storm surge dynamics for different stormy conditions in the North Sea, and are compared to neural network models. The results show that the chaotic models can generally provide reliable and accurate short-term storm surge predictions.

  17. Staying Power of Churn Prediction Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Risselada, Hans; Verhoef, Peter C.; Bijmolt, Tammo H. A.

    In this paper, we study the staying power of various churn prediction models. Staying power is defined as the predictive performance of a model in a number of periods after the estimation period. We examine two methods, logit models and classification trees, both with and without applying a bagging

  18. Predictive user modeling with actionable attributes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zliobaite, I.; Pechenizkiy, M.

    2013-01-01

    Different machine learning techniques have been proposed and used for modeling individual and group user needs, interests and preferences. In the traditional predictive modeling instances are described by observable variables, called attributes. The goal is to learn a model for predicting the target

  19. EFFICIENT PREDICTIVE MODELLING FOR ARCHAEOLOGICAL RESEARCH

    OpenAIRE

    Balla, A.; Pavlogeorgatos, G.; Tsiafakis, D.; Pavlidis, G.

    2014-01-01

    The study presents a general methodology for designing, developing and implementing predictive modelling for identifying areas of archaeological interest. The methodology is based on documented archaeological data and geographical factors, geospatial analysis and predictive modelling, and has been applied to the identification of possible Macedonian tombs’ locations in Northern Greece. The model was tested extensively and the results were validated using a commonly used predictive gain, which...

  20. Robust predictions of the interacting boson model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Casten, R.F.; Koeln Univ.

    1994-01-01

    While most recognized for its symmetries and algebraic structure, the IBA model has other less-well-known but equally intrinsic properties which give unavoidable, parameter-free predictions. These predictions concern central aspects of low-energy nuclear collective structure. This paper outlines these ''robust'' predictions and compares them with the data

  1. Comparison of Prediction-Error-Modelling Criteria

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, John Bagterp; Jørgensen, Sten Bay

    2007-01-01

    Single and multi-step prediction-error-methods based on the maximum likelihood and least squares criteria are compared. The prediction-error methods studied are based on predictions using the Kalman filter and Kalman predictors for a linear discrete-time stochastic state space model, which is a r...

  2. Use of satellite and modeled soil moisture data for predicting event soil loss at plot scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Todisco, F.; Brocca, L.; Termite, L. F.; Wagner, W.

    2015-09-01

    The potential of coupling soil moisture and a Universal Soil Loss Equation-based (USLE-based) model for event soil loss estimation at plot scale is carefully investigated at the Masse area, in central Italy. The derived model, named Soil Moisture for Erosion (SM4E), is applied by considering the unavailability of in situ soil moisture measurements, by using the data predicted by a soil water balance model (SWBM) and derived from satellite sensors, i.e., the Advanced SCATterometer (ASCAT). The soil loss estimation accuracy is validated using in situ measurements in which event observations at plot scale are available for the period 2008-2013. The results showed that including soil moisture observations in the event rainfall-runoff erosivity factor of the USLE enhances the capability of the model to account for variations in event soil losses, the soil moisture being an effective alternative to the estimated runoff, in the prediction of the event soil loss at Masse. The agreement between observed and estimated soil losses (through SM4E) is fairly satisfactory with a determination coefficient (log-scale) equal to ~ 0.35 and a root mean square error (RMSE) of ~ 2.8 Mg ha-1. These results are particularly significant for the operational estimation of soil losses. Indeed, currently, soil moisture is a relatively simple measurement at the field scale and remote sensing data are also widely available on a global scale. Through satellite data, there is the potential of applying the SM4E model for large-scale monitoring and quantification of the soil erosion process.

  3. Use of satellite and modelled soil moisture data for predicting event soil loss at plot scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Todisco, F.; Brocca, L.; Termite, L. F.; Wagner, W.

    2015-03-01

    The potential of coupling soil moisture and a~USLE-based model for event soil loss estimation at plot scale is carefully investigated at the Masse area, in Central Italy. The derived model, named Soil Moisture for Erosion (SM4E), is applied by considering the unavailability of in situ soil moisture measurements, by using the data predicted by a soil water balance model (SWBM) and derived from satellite sensors, i.e. the Advanced SCATterometer (ASCAT). The soil loss estimation accuracy is validated using in situ measurements in which event observations at plot scale are available for the period 2008-2013. The results showed that including soil moisture observations in the event rainfall-runoff erosivity factor of the RUSLE/USLE, enhances the capability of the model to account for variations in event soil losses, being the soil moisture an effective alternative to the estimated runoff, in the prediction of the event soil loss at Masse. The agreement between observed and estimated soil losses (through SM4E) is fairly satisfactory with a determination coefficient (log-scale) equal to of ~ 0.35 and a root-mean-square error (RMSE) of ~ 2.8 Mg ha-1. These results are particularly significant for the operational estimation of soil losses. Indeed, currently, soil moisture is a relatively simple measurement at the field scale and remote sensing data are also widely available on a global scale. Through satellite data, there is the potential of applying the SM4E model for large-scale monitoring and quantification of the soil erosion process.

  4. Spectroscopic studies, theoretical models and structural characterization. II. Synthesis and X-ray powder diffraction of the elpasolites Cs2NaSmCl6

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Poblete, V.; Acevedo, R.

    1998-01-01

    In this research work, we report the synthesis and structural characterization of the stoichiometric elpasolite Cs 2 NaSmCl 6 . The synthesis was performed under a solid state reaction in nitrogen atmosphere from the chemicals CsCl, NaCl and SmCl 3 weighted stoichiometrically. The best possible crystallization temperature was obtained using thermal studies of the type DTA/TGA (the thermal treatment was allowed to proceed for 2.5 hours at 755 Centigrade, showing a temperature gradient of 10 Centigrade/minute). The structural characterization by powder X-ray diffraction (XDR) indicates that this elpasolite belongs to the Fm 3m (O h 5 ) space group and the optimized structural parameters are as follows: a 0 = 10.8342 Armstrong, V 1271.72 Armstrong 3 , Z=4, M=651.88, D x =3.406 y D exp=3.41 ± 0.01. The profile refinement, using the Rietveld method, allowed us to fit the experimental and the calculated intensities of a total of 32 lines. The above result indicates that the condition R exp 2+ + 3Cl -1 and the counter ions filling the octahedral holes, in full agreement with anti fluorite type crystal. According to the above description, these elpasolite adopt the form (M 1/3 □ 2/3 ) 4 X 2 , where M labels the central metal, X stand for the chlorine ions and □ represent the vacancies, which may accommodate a significant amount of defects without collapsing. This experimental study provides the necessary input to test theoretical models against experimental data. (Author)

  5. Extracting falsifiable predictions from sloppy models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gutenkunst, Ryan N; Casey, Fergal P; Waterfall, Joshua J; Myers, Christopher R; Sethna, James P

    2007-12-01

    Successful predictions are among the most compelling validations of any model. Extracting falsifiable predictions from nonlinear multiparameter models is complicated by the fact that such models are commonly sloppy, possessing sensitivities to different parameter combinations that range over many decades. Here we discuss how sloppiness affects the sorts of data that best constrain model predictions, makes linear uncertainty approximations dangerous, and introduces computational difficulties in Monte-Carlo uncertainty analysis. We also present a useful test problem and suggest refinements to the standards by which models are communicated.

  6. The prediction of epidemics through mathematical modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaus, Catherine

    2014-01-01

    Mathematical models may be resorted to in an endeavor to predict the development of epidemics. The SIR model is one of the applications. Still too approximate, the use of statistics awaits more data in order to come closer to reality.

  7. Calibration of PMIS pavement performance prediction models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-02-01

    Improve the accuracy of TxDOTs existing pavement performance prediction models through calibrating these models using actual field data obtained from the Pavement Management Information System (PMIS). : Ensure logical performance superiority patte...

  8. Evaluating Predictive Uncertainty of Hyporheic Exchange Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chow, R.; Bennett, J.; Dugge, J.; Wöhling, T.; Nowak, W.

    2017-12-01

    Hyporheic exchange is the interaction of water between rivers and groundwater, and is difficult to predict. One of the largest contributions to predictive uncertainty for hyporheic fluxes have been attributed to the representation of heterogeneous subsurface properties. This research aims to evaluate which aspect of the subsurface representation - the spatial distribution of hydrofacies or the model for local-scale (within-facies) heterogeneity - most influences the predictive uncertainty. Also, we seek to identify data types that help reduce this uncertainty best. For this investigation, we conduct a modelling study of the Steinlach River meander, in Southwest Germany. The Steinlach River meander is an experimental site established in 2010 to monitor hyporheic exchange at the meander scale. We use HydroGeoSphere, a fully integrated surface water-groundwater model, to model hyporheic exchange and to assess the predictive uncertainty of hyporheic exchange transit times (HETT). A highly parameterized complex model is built and treated as `virtual reality', which is in turn modelled with simpler subsurface parameterization schemes (Figure). Then, we conduct Monte-Carlo simulations with these models to estimate the predictive uncertainty. Results indicate that: Uncertainty in HETT is relatively small for early times and increases with transit times. Uncertainty from local-scale heterogeneity is negligible compared to uncertainty in the hydrofacies distribution. Introducing more data to a poor model structure may reduce predictive variance, but does not reduce predictive bias. Hydraulic head observations alone cannot constrain the uncertainty of HETT, however an estimate of hyporheic exchange flux proves to be more effective at reducing this uncertainty. Figure: Approach for evaluating predictive model uncertainty. A conceptual model is first developed from the field investigations. A complex model (`virtual reality') is then developed based on that conceptual model

  9. Case studies in archaeological predictive modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verhagen, Jacobus Wilhelmus Hermanus Philippus

    2007-01-01

    In this thesis, a collection of papers is put together dealing with various quantitative aspects of predictive modelling and archaeological prospection. Among the issues covered are the effects of survey bias on the archaeological data used for predictive modelling, and the complexities of testing

  10. Clinical Prediction Models for Cardiovascular Disease: Tufts Predictive Analytics and Comparative Effectiveness Clinical Prediction Model Database.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wessler, Benjamin S; Lai Yh, Lana; Kramer, Whitney; Cangelosi, Michael; Raman, Gowri; Lutz, Jennifer S; Kent, David M

    2015-07-01

    Clinical prediction models (CPMs) estimate the probability of clinical outcomes and hold the potential to improve decision making and individualize care. For patients with cardiovascular disease, there are numerous CPMs available although the extent of this literature is not well described. We conducted a systematic review for articles containing CPMs for cardiovascular disease published between January 1990 and May 2012. Cardiovascular disease includes coronary heart disease, heart failure, arrhythmias, stroke, venous thromboembolism, and peripheral vascular disease. We created a novel database and characterized CPMs based on the stage of development, population under study, performance, covariates, and predicted outcomes. There are 796 models included in this database. The number of CPMs published each year is increasing steadily over time. Seven hundred seventeen (90%) are de novo CPMs, 21 (3%) are CPM recalibrations, and 58 (7%) are CPM adaptations. This database contains CPMs for 31 index conditions, including 215 CPMs for patients with coronary artery disease, 168 CPMs for population samples, and 79 models for patients with heart failure. There are 77 distinct index/outcome pairings. Of the de novo models in this database, 450 (63%) report a c-statistic and 259 (36%) report some information on calibration. There is an abundance of CPMs available for a wide assortment of cardiovascular disease conditions, with substantial redundancy in the literature. The comparative performance of these models, the consistency of effects and risk estimates across models and the actual and potential clinical impact of this body of literature is poorly understood. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.

  11. Probing metastable Sm2+ and optically stimulated tunnelling emission in YPO4: Ce, Sm

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Prasad, Amit Kumar; Kook, Myung Ho; Jain, Mayank

    2017-01-01

    When the model dosimetry system YPO4: Ce3+, Sm3+ is exposed to X-rays, the charge state of the dopants changes, becoming Ce4+ and Sm2+ via hole and electron trapping, respectively which are metastable; the original charge states can be achieved through electron transfer back from Sm2+ to Ce4+ via......) and its temperature dependence to provide insights into thermal quenching, and c) the kinetics of localised recombination from Sm2+ to Ce4+ on nanoseconds to seconds time scales using sub-band-edge excitation....

  12. Incorporating uncertainty in predictive species distribution modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beale, Colin M; Lennon, Jack J

    2012-01-19

    Motivated by the need to solve ecological problems (climate change, habitat fragmentation and biological invasions), there has been increasing interest in species distribution models (SDMs). Predictions from these models inform conservation policy, invasive species management and disease-control measures. However, predictions are subject to uncertainty, the degree and source of which is often unrecognized. Here, we review the SDM literature in the context of uncertainty, focusing on three main classes of SDM: niche-based models, demographic models and process-based models. We identify sources of uncertainty for each class and discuss how uncertainty can be minimized or included in the modelling process to give realistic measures of confidence around predictions. Because this has typically not been performed, we conclude that uncertainty in SDMs has often been underestimated and a false precision assigned to predictions of geographical distribution. We identify areas where development of new statistical tools will improve predictions from distribution models, notably the development of hierarchical models that link different types of distribution model and their attendant uncertainties across spatial scales. Finally, we discuss the need to develop more defensible methods for assessing predictive performance, quantifying model goodness-of-fit and for assessing the significance of model covariates.

  13. Model Predictive Control for Smart Energy Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Halvgaard, Rasmus

    pumps, heat tanks, electrical vehicle battery charging/discharging, wind farms, power plants). 2.Embed forecasting methodologies for the weather (e.g. temperature, solar radiation), the electricity consumption, and the electricity price in a predictive control system. 3.Develop optimization algorithms....... Chapter 3 introduces Model Predictive Control (MPC) including state estimation, filtering and prediction for linear models. Chapter 4 simulates the models from Chapter 2 with the certainty equivalent MPC from Chapter 3. An economic MPC minimizes the costs of consumption based on real electricity prices...... that determined the flexibility of the units. A predictive control system easily handles constraints, e.g. limitations in power consumption, and predicts the future behavior of a unit by integrating predictions of electricity prices, consumption, and weather variables. The simulations demonstrate the expected...

  14. Evaluating the Predictive Value of Growth Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murphy, Daniel L.; Gaertner, Matthew N.

    2014-01-01

    This study evaluates four growth prediction models--projection, student growth percentile, trajectory, and transition table--commonly used to forecast (and give schools credit for) middle school students' future proficiency. Analyses focused on vertically scaled summative mathematics assessments, and two performance standards conditions (high…

  15. Model predictive control classical, robust and stochastic

    CERN Document Server

    Kouvaritakis, Basil

    2016-01-01

    For the first time, a textbook that brings together classical predictive control with treatment of up-to-date robust and stochastic techniques. Model Predictive Control describes the development of tractable algorithms for uncertain, stochastic, constrained systems. The starting point is classical predictive control and the appropriate formulation of performance objectives and constraints to provide guarantees of closed-loop stability and performance. Moving on to robust predictive control, the text explains how similar guarantees may be obtained for cases in which the model describing the system dynamics is subject to additive disturbances and parametric uncertainties. Open- and closed-loop optimization are considered and the state of the art in computationally tractable methods based on uncertainty tubes presented for systems with additive model uncertainty. Finally, the tube framework is also applied to model predictive control problems involving hard or probabilistic constraints for the cases of multiplic...

  16. Modeling, robust and distributed model predictive control for freeway networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Liu, S.

    2016-01-01

    In Model Predictive Control (MPC) for traffic networks, traffic models are crucial since they are used as prediction models for determining the optimal control actions. In order to reduce the computational complexity of MPC for traffic networks, macroscopic traffic models are often used instead of

  17. Deep Predictive Models in Interactive Music

    OpenAIRE

    Martin, Charles P.; Ellefsen, Kai Olav; Torresen, Jim

    2018-01-01

    Automatic music generation is a compelling task where much recent progress has been made with deep learning models. In this paper, we ask how these models can be integrated into interactive music systems; how can they encourage or enhance the music making of human users? Musical performance requires prediction to operate instruments, and perform in groups. We argue that predictive models could help interactive systems to understand their temporal context, and ensemble behaviour. Deep learning...

  18. Unreachable Setpoints in Model Predictive Control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rawlings, James B.; Bonné, Dennis; Jørgensen, John Bagterp

    2008-01-01

    In this work, a new model predictive controller is developed that handles unreachable setpoints better than traditional model predictive control methods. The new controller induces an interesting fast/slow asymmetry in the tracking response of the system. Nominal asymptotic stability of the optimal...... steady state is established for terminal constraint model predictive control (MPC). The region of attraction is the steerable set. Existing analysis methods for closed-loop properties of MPC are not applicable to this new formulation, and a new analysis method is developed. It is shown how to extend...

  19. Bayesian Predictive Models for Rayleigh Wind Speed

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shahirinia, Amir; Hajizadeh, Amin; Yu, David C

    2017-01-01

    predictive model of the wind speed aggregates the non-homogeneous distributions into a single continuous distribution. Therefore, the result is able to capture the variation among the probability distributions of the wind speeds at the turbines’ locations in a wind farm. More specifically, instead of using...... a wind speed distribution whose parameters are known or estimated, the parameters are considered as random whose variations are according to probability distributions. The Bayesian predictive model for a Rayleigh which only has a single model scale parameter has been proposed. Also closed-form posterior...... and predictive inferences under different reasonable choices of prior distribution in sensitivity analysis have been presented....

  20. Quantitative models for predicting adsorption of oxytetracycline, ciprofloxacin and sulfamerazine to swine manures with contrasting properties.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Dengmiao; Feng, Yao; Liu, Yuanwang; Li, Jinpeng; Xue, Jianming; Li, Zhaojun

    2018-09-01

    Understanding antibiotic adsorption in livestock manures is crucial to assess the fate and risk of antibiotics in the environment. In this study, three quantitative models developed with swine manure-water distribution coefficients (LgK d ) for oxytetracycline (OTC), ciprofloxacin (CIP) and sulfamerazine (SM1) in swine manures. Physicochemical parameters (n=12) of the swine manure were used as independent variables using partial least-squares (PLSs) analysis. The cumulative cross-validated regression coefficients (Q 2 cum ) values, standard deviations (SDs) and external validation coefficient (Q 2 ext ) ranged from 0.761 to 0.868, 0.027 to 0.064, and 0.743 to 0.827 for the three models; as such, internal and external predictability of the models were strong. The pH, soluble organic carbon (SOC) and nitrogen (SON), and Ca were important explanatory variables for the OTC-Model, pH, SOC, and SON for the CIP-model, and pH, total organic nitrogen (TON), and SOC for the SM1-model. The high VIPs (variable importance in the projections) of pH (1.178-1.396), SOC (0.968-1.034), and SON (0.822 and 0.865) established these physicochemical parameters as likely being dominant (associatively) in affecting transport of antibiotics in swine manures. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. Predictive Modelling and Time: An Experiment in Temporal Archaeological Predictive Models

    OpenAIRE

    David Ebert

    2006-01-01

    One of the most common criticisms of archaeological predictive modelling is that it fails to account for temporal or functional differences in sites. However, a practical solution to temporal or functional predictive modelling has proven to be elusive. This article discusses temporal predictive modelling, focusing on the difficulties of employing temporal variables, then introduces and tests a simple methodology for the implementation of temporal modelling. The temporal models thus created ar...

  2. Fingerprint verification prediction model in hand dermatitis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Chew K; Chang, Choong C; Johor, Asmah; Othman, Puwira; Baba, Roshidah

    2015-07-01

    Hand dermatitis associated fingerprint changes is a significant problem and affects fingerprint verification processes. This study was done to develop a clinically useful prediction model for fingerprint verification in patients with hand dermatitis. A case-control study involving 100 patients with hand dermatitis. All patients verified their thumbprints against their identity card. Registered fingerprints were randomized into a model derivation and model validation group. Predictive model was derived using multiple logistic regression. Validation was done using the goodness-of-fit test. The fingerprint verification prediction model consists of a major criterion (fingerprint dystrophy area of ≥ 25%) and two minor criteria (long horizontal lines and long vertical lines). The presence of the major criterion predicts it will almost always fail verification, while presence of both minor criteria and presence of one minor criterion predict high and low risk of fingerprint verification failure, respectively. When none of the criteria are met, the fingerprint almost always passes the verification. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.937, and the goodness-of-fit test showed agreement between the observed and expected number (P = 0.26). The derived fingerprint verification failure prediction model is validated and highly discriminatory in predicting risk of fingerprint verification in patients with hand dermatitis. © 2014 The International Society of Dermatology.

  3. Massive Predictive Modeling using Oracle R Enterprise

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN. Geneva

    2014-01-01

    R is fast becoming the lingua franca for analyzing data via statistics, visualization, and predictive analytics. For enterprise-scale data, R users have three main concerns: scalability, performance, and production deployment. Oracle's R-based technologies - Oracle R Distribution, Oracle R Enterprise, Oracle R Connector for Hadoop, and the R package ROracle - address these concerns. In this talk, we introduce Oracle's R technologies, highlighting how each enables R users to achieve scalability and performance while making production deployment of R results a natural outcome of the data analyst/scientist efforts. The focus then turns to Oracle R Enterprise with code examples using the transparency layer and embedded R execution, targeting massive predictive modeling. One goal behind massive predictive modeling is to build models per entity, such as customers, zip codes, simulations, in an effort to understand behavior and tailor predictions at the entity level. Predictions...

  4. SM18 Visits and Access

    CERN Multimedia

    2012-01-01

      VISITS The rules and conditions to be followed for visits in the SM18 Hall are laid out in the EDMS 1205328 document. No visit is allowed without prior reservation.   ACCESS Special access right is needed ONLY from 7 p.m. to 7 a.m. and during week-ends. From 1 December, the current SM18 access database will be closed and a new one “SM18-OWH outside normal hours” started from scratch. Requests, via EDH SM18-OWH, will have to be duly justified.   For further information, please contact Evelyne Delucinge.

  5. Multi-model analysis in hydrological prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lanthier, M.; Arsenault, R.; Brissette, F.

    2017-12-01

    Hydrologic modelling, by nature, is a simplification of the real-world hydrologic system. Therefore ensemble hydrological predictions thus obtained do not present the full range of possible streamflow outcomes, thereby producing ensembles which demonstrate errors in variance such as under-dispersion. Past studies show that lumped models used in prediction mode can return satisfactory results, especially when there is not enough information available on the watershed to run a distributed model. But all lumped models greatly simplify the complex processes of the hydrologic cycle. To generate more spread in the hydrologic ensemble predictions, multi-model ensembles have been considered. In this study, the aim is to propose and analyse a method that gives an ensemble streamflow prediction that properly represents the forecast probabilities and reduced ensemble bias. To achieve this, three simple lumped models are used to generate an ensemble. These will also be combined using multi-model averaging techniques, which generally generate a more accurate hydrogram than the best of the individual models in simulation mode. This new predictive combined hydrogram is added to the ensemble, thus creating a large ensemble which may improve the variability while also improving the ensemble mean bias. The quality of the predictions is then assessed on different periods: 2 weeks, 1 month, 3 months and 6 months using a PIT Histogram of the percentiles of the real observation volumes with respect to the volumes of the ensemble members. Initially, the models were run using historical weather data to generate synthetic flows. This worked for individual models, but not for the multi-model and for the large ensemble. Consequently, by performing data assimilation at each prediction period and thus adjusting the initial states of the models, the PIT Histogram could be constructed using the observed flows while allowing the use of the multi-model predictions. The under-dispersion has been

  6. The provenance and Sm/Nd Model ages of siliciclastic supracrustal rocks of the Faina and Santa Rita Greenstone belts, Goias, Brazil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Resende, Marcelo Goncalves; Jost, Hardy; Lima, Bruno Eustaquio Moreira; Teixeira, Alexandre de Amorim

    1999-01-01

    The Faina and Santa Rita greenstone belts are two N 60 deg C W trending synclinoria separated by a N 30 deg C E strike-slip fault and rest allochtonous on the adjacent Uva and Caicara granite-gneiss complexes. The belts are made up of lower metakomatiites, followed by metabasalts and thick metasedimentary sequences deposited under contrasting paleogeographic settings. In Faina, the sequence consists of two complete shelf cycles, the first resting on basalts by an erosional unconformity. In Santa Rita, the basalts give gradually place to carbonaceous metashales, unconformably overlain by metarhythmites. Provenance based on trace element geochemistry, mineral chemistry of chloride and muscovite, source-are modeling and REE elements indicate that protoliths of the first shelf cycle of Faina and the carbonaceous metashales of Santa Rita formed under the influence of a source area dominated by mafic ultramafic rocks, whilst during the sedimentation of the second shelf cycle and the metarhythmites of Santa Rita the source-area was dominated by TTG granitoids. Sm-Nd model ages of the lower sedimentary packages vary between 3.0 and 2.8 Ga and the upper between 2.7 and 2.6 Ga. These intervals coincide, respectively, with the estimated age of the underlying, and with the Sm-Nd, Rb-Sr e U-Pb ages of the main granitoids and gneisses of the adjacent complexes. The same data indicate that, during the sedimentation of the first shelf cycle of Faina and the carbonaceous metashales of Santa Rita, both basins had independent source-areas, but shared the same source during the upper sections. Weathering nature and intensity of the source-area calculated by means of geochemical a data suggest that the dramatic change of provenance from the lower to the upper sections is due to the shift from tectonically stable to unstable regimes, interpreted as resulting from the emergence of the island arc whose roots are represented by the adjacent granite-gneiss complexes. (author)

  7. Prostate Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing prostate cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  8. Colorectal Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing colorectal cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  9. Esophageal Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing esophageal cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  10. Bladder Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing bladder cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  11. Lung Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing lung cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  12. Breast Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing breast cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  13. Pancreatic Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing pancreatic cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  14. Ovarian Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing ovarian cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  15. Liver Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing liver cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  16. Testicular Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of testicular cervical cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  17. Cervical Cancer Risk Prediction Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Developing statistical models that estimate the probability of developing cervical cancer over a defined period of time will help clinicians identify individuals at higher risk of specific cancers, allowing for earlier or more frequent screening and counseling of behavioral changes to decrease risk.

  18. Modeling and Prediction Using Stochastic Differential Equations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Juhl, Rune; Møller, Jan Kloppenborg; Jørgensen, John Bagterp

    2016-01-01

    Pharmacokinetic/pharmakodynamic (PK/PD) modeling for a single subject is most often performed using nonlinear models based on deterministic ordinary differential equations (ODEs), and the variation between subjects in a population of subjects is described using a population (mixed effects) setup...... deterministic and can predict the future perfectly. A more realistic approach would be to allow for randomness in the model due to e.g., the model be too simple or errors in input. We describe a modeling and prediction setup which better reflects reality and suggests stochastic differential equations (SDEs...

  19. Aqueous solvation of polyalanine α-helices with specific water molecules and with the CPCM and SM5.2 aqueous continuum models using density functional theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marianski, Mateusz; Dannenberg, J J

    2012-02-02

    We present density functional theory (DFT) calculations at the X3LYP/D95(d,p) level on the solvation of polyalanine α-helices in water. The study includes the effects of discrete water molecules and the CPCM and AMSOL SM5.2 solvent continuum model both separately and in combination. We find that individual water molecules cooperatively hydrogen-bond to both the C- and N-termini of the helix, which results in increases in the dipole moment of the helix/water complex to more than the vector sum of their individual dipole moments. These waters are found to be more stable than in bulk solvent. On the other hand, individual water molecules that interact with the backbone lower the dipole moment of the helix/water complex to below that of the helix itself. Small clusters of waters at the termini increase the dipole moments of the helix/water aggregates, but the effect diminishes as more waters are added. We discuss the somewhat complex behavior of the helix with the discrete waters in the continuum models.

  20. Predictive Model of Systemic Toxicity (SOT)

    Science.gov (United States)

    In an effort to ensure chemical safety in light of regulatory advances away from reliance on animal testing, USEPA and L’Oréal have collaborated to develop a quantitative systemic toxicity prediction model. Prediction of human systemic toxicity has proved difficult and remains a ...

  1. Spent fuel: prediction model development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Almassy, M.Y.; Bosi, D.M.; Cantley, D.A.

    1979-07-01

    The need for spent fuel disposal performance modeling stems from a requirement to assess the risks involved with deep geologic disposal of spent fuel, and to support licensing and public acceptance of spent fuel repositories. Through the balanced program of analysis, diagnostic testing, and disposal demonstration tests, highlighted in this presentation, the goal of defining risks and of quantifying fuel performance during long-term disposal can be attained

  2. Navy Recruit Attrition Prediction Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-09-01

    have high correlation with attrition, such as age, job characteristics, command climate, marital status, behavior issues prior to recruitment, and the...the additive model. glm(formula = Outcome ~ Age + Gender + Marital + AFQTCat + Pay + Ed + Dep, family = binomial, data = ltraining) Deviance ...0.1 ‘ ‘ 1 (Dispersion parameter for binomial family taken to be 1) Null deviance : 105441 on 85221 degrees of freedom Residual deviance

  3. Predicting and Modeling RNA Architecture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westhof, Eric; Masquida, Benoît; Jossinet, Fabrice

    2011-01-01

    SUMMARY A general approach for modeling the architecture of large and structured RNA molecules is described. The method exploits the modularity and the hierarchical folding of RNA architecture that is viewed as the assembly of preformed double-stranded helices defined by Watson-Crick base pairs and RNA modules maintained by non-Watson-Crick base pairs. Despite the extensive molecular neutrality observed in RNA structures, specificity in RNA folding is achieved through global constraints like lengths of helices, coaxiality of helical stacks, and structures adopted at the junctions of helices. The Assemble integrated suite of computer tools allows for sequence and structure analysis as well as interactive modeling by homology or ab initio assembly with possibilities for fitting within electronic density maps. The local key role of non-Watson-Crick pairs guides RNA architecture formation and offers metrics for assessing the accuracy of three-dimensional models in a more useful way than usual root mean square deviation (RMSD) values. PMID:20504963

  4. Predictive Models and Computational Toxicology (II IBAMTOX)

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA’s ‘virtual embryo’ project is building an integrative systems biology framework for predictive models of developmental toxicity. One schema involves a knowledge-driven adverse outcome pathway (AOP) framework utilizing information from public databases, standardized ontologies...

  5. Finding furfural hydrogenation catalysts via predictive modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Strassberger, Z.; Mooijman, M.; Ruijter, E.; Alberts, A.H.; Maldonado, A.G.; Orru, R.V.A.; Rothenberg, G.

    2010-01-01

    We combine multicomponent reactions, catalytic performance studies and predictive modelling to find transfer hydrogenation catalysts. An initial set of 18 ruthenium-carbene complexes were synthesized and screened in the transfer hydrogenation of furfural to furfurol with isopropyl alcohol complexes

  6. FINITE ELEMENT MODEL FOR PREDICTING RESIDUAL ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    FINITE ELEMENT MODEL FOR PREDICTING RESIDUAL STRESSES IN ... the transverse residual stress in the x-direction (σx) had a maximum value of 375MPa ... the finite element method are in fair agreement with the experimental results.

  7. Evaluation of CASP8 model quality predictions

    KAUST Repository

    Cozzetto, Domenico; Kryshtafovych, Andriy; Tramontano, Anna

    2009-01-01

    established a prediction category to evaluate their performance in 2006. In 2008 the experiment was repeated and its results are reported here. Participants were invited to infer the correctness of the protein models submitted by the registered automatic

  8. A superdeformed band in {sup 142}Sm

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hackman, G; Mullins, J M; Kuehner, J A; Prevost, D; Waddington, J C [McMaster Univ., Hamilton, ON (Canada). Dept. of Physics; Galindo-Uribarri, A; Janzen, V P; Radford, D C; Schmeing, N; Ward, D [Atomic Energy of Canada Ltd., Chalk River, ON (Canada). Chalk River Nuclear Labs.

    1992-08-01

    Observation of {gamma}-{gamma} coincidences from the reaction {sup 124}Sn({sup 24}Mg,6n){sup 142}Sm at 145 MeV indicates the existence of a rotational band with dynamic moment of inertia J{sup (2)} similar to that of the superdeformed band in the isotone {sup 143}Eu. This result is consistent with calculations predicting superdeformed structures in N = 80, Z {approx} 64 nuclei. (author). 8 refs., 4 figs.

  9. Mental models accurately predict emotion transitions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thornton, Mark A; Tamir, Diana I

    2017-06-06

    Successful social interactions depend on people's ability to predict others' future actions and emotions. People possess many mechanisms for perceiving others' current emotional states, but how might they use this information to predict others' future states? We hypothesized that people might capitalize on an overlooked aspect of affective experience: current emotions predict future emotions. By attending to regularities in emotion transitions, perceivers might develop accurate mental models of others' emotional dynamics. People could then use these mental models of emotion transitions to predict others' future emotions from currently observable emotions. To test this hypothesis, studies 1-3 used data from three extant experience-sampling datasets to establish the actual rates of emotional transitions. We then collected three parallel datasets in which participants rated the transition likelihoods between the same set of emotions. Participants' ratings of emotion transitions predicted others' experienced transitional likelihoods with high accuracy. Study 4 demonstrated that four conceptual dimensions of mental state representation-valence, social impact, rationality, and human mind-inform participants' mental models. Study 5 used 2 million emotion reports on the Experience Project to replicate both of these findings: again people reported accurate models of emotion transitions, and these models were informed by the same four conceptual dimensions. Importantly, neither these conceptual dimensions nor holistic similarity could fully explain participants' accuracy, suggesting that their mental models contain accurate information about emotion dynamics above and beyond what might be predicted by static emotion knowledge alone.

  10. Mental models accurately predict emotion transitions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thornton, Mark A.; Tamir, Diana I.

    2017-01-01

    Successful social interactions depend on people’s ability to predict others’ future actions and emotions. People possess many mechanisms for perceiving others’ current emotional states, but how might they use this information to predict others’ future states? We hypothesized that people might capitalize on an overlooked aspect of affective experience: current emotions predict future emotions. By attending to regularities in emotion transitions, perceivers might develop accurate mental models of others’ emotional dynamics. People could then use these mental models of emotion transitions to predict others’ future emotions from currently observable emotions. To test this hypothesis, studies 1–3 used data from three extant experience-sampling datasets to establish the actual rates of emotional transitions. We then collected three parallel datasets in which participants rated the transition likelihoods between the same set of emotions. Participants’ ratings of emotion transitions predicted others’ experienced transitional likelihoods with high accuracy. Study 4 demonstrated that four conceptual dimensions of mental state representation—valence, social impact, rationality, and human mind—inform participants’ mental models. Study 5 used 2 million emotion reports on the Experience Project to replicate both of these findings: again people reported accurate models of emotion transitions, and these models were informed by the same four conceptual dimensions. Importantly, neither these conceptual dimensions nor holistic similarity could fully explain participants’ accuracy, suggesting that their mental models contain accurate information about emotion dynamics above and beyond what might be predicted by static emotion knowledge alone. PMID:28533373

  11. Return Predictability, Model Uncertainty, and Robust Investment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lukas, Manuel

    Stock return predictability is subject to great uncertainty. In this paper we use the model confidence set approach to quantify uncertainty about expected utility from investment, accounting for potential return predictability. For monthly US data and six representative return prediction models, we...... find that confidence sets are very wide, change significantly with the predictor variables, and frequently include expected utilities for which the investor prefers not to invest. The latter motivates a robust investment strategy maximizing the minimal element of the confidence set. The robust investor...... allocates a much lower share of wealth to stocks compared to a standard investor....

  12. Model predictive Controller for Mobile Robot

    OpenAIRE

    Alireza Rezaee

    2017-01-01

    This paper proposes a Model Predictive Controller (MPC) for control of a P2AT mobile robot. MPC refers to a group of controllers that employ a distinctly identical model of process to predict its future behavior over an extended prediction horizon. The design of a MPC is formulated as an optimal control problem. Then this problem is considered as linear quadratic equation (LQR) and is solved by making use of Ricatti equation. To show the effectiveness of the proposed method this controller is...

  13. Spatial Economics Model Predicting Transport Volume

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lu Bo

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available It is extremely important to predict the logistics requirements in a scientific and rational way. However, in recent years, the improvement effect on the prediction method is not very significant and the traditional statistical prediction method has the defects of low precision and poor interpretation of the prediction model, which cannot only guarantee the generalization ability of the prediction model theoretically, but also cannot explain the models effectively. Therefore, in combination with the theories of the spatial economics, industrial economics, and neo-classical economics, taking city of Zhuanghe as the research object, the study identifies the leading industry that can produce a large number of cargoes, and further predicts the static logistics generation of the Zhuanghe and hinterlands. By integrating various factors that can affect the regional logistics requirements, this study established a logistics requirements potential model from the aspect of spatial economic principles, and expanded the way of logistics requirements prediction from the single statistical principles to an new area of special and regional economics.

  14. Accuracy assessment of landslide prediction models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Othman, A N; Mohd, W M N W; Noraini, S

    2014-01-01

    The increasing population and expansion of settlements over hilly areas has greatly increased the impact of natural disasters such as landslide. Therefore, it is important to developed models which could accurately predict landslide hazard zones. Over the years, various techniques and models have been developed to predict landslide hazard zones. The aim of this paper is to access the accuracy of landslide prediction models developed by the authors. The methodology involved the selection of study area, data acquisition, data processing and model development and also data analysis. The development of these models are based on nine different landslide inducing parameters i.e. slope, land use, lithology, soil properties, geomorphology, flow accumulation, aspect, proximity to river and proximity to road. Rank sum, rating, pairwise comparison and AHP techniques are used to determine the weights for each of the parameters used. Four (4) different models which consider different parameter combinations are developed by the authors. Results obtained are compared to landslide history and accuracies for Model 1, Model 2, Model 3 and Model 4 are 66.7, 66.7%, 60% and 22.9% respectively. From the results, rank sum, rating and pairwise comparison can be useful techniques to predict landslide hazard zones

  15. 24/7 SM slavery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dancer, Peter L; Kleinplatz, Peggy J; Moser, Charles

    2006-01-01

    This study describes the nature of 24/7 SM slavery as practiced within the SM (sadomasochistic) community. These SM participants, who attempt to live full-time in owner-slave roles, represent a small proportion of those with SM interests. SM slaves have not been studied systematically to determine if and how they differ from other SM practitioners. An online questionnaire was used to obtain responses from individuals who self-identified as slaves. A total of 146 respondents participated, 53% female and 47% male, ranging in age from 18 to 72. We explored the depth of their relationships, how well they approximated "slavery," and how their relationships were structured to maintain distinct roles. Data showed that in long-term SM slave relationships, a power differential exists which extends beyond time-limited SM or sexual interactions. Owners and slaves often use common, daily life experiences or situations, such as the completion of household chores, money management, and morning or evening routines, to distinguish and maintain their respective roles. In addition, contrary to the perception of total submission, results revealed that slaves exercise free will when it is in their best interests to do so. These relationships were long-lasting and satisfying to the respondents.

  16. Predictive validation of an influenza spread model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ayaz Hyder

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Modeling plays a critical role in mitigating impacts of seasonal influenza epidemics. Complex simulation models are currently at the forefront of evaluating optimal mitigation strategies at multiple scales and levels of organization. Given their evaluative role, these models remain limited in their ability to predict and forecast future epidemics leading some researchers and public-health practitioners to question their usefulness. The objective of this study is to evaluate the predictive ability of an existing complex simulation model of influenza spread. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used extensive data on past epidemics to demonstrate the process of predictive validation. This involved generalizing an individual-based model for influenza spread and fitting it to laboratory-confirmed influenza infection data from a single observed epidemic (1998-1999. Next, we used the fitted model and modified two of its parameters based on data on real-world perturbations (vaccination coverage by age group and strain type. Simulating epidemics under these changes allowed us to estimate the deviation/error between the expected epidemic curve under perturbation and observed epidemics taking place from 1999 to 2006. Our model was able to forecast absolute intensity and epidemic peak week several weeks earlier with reasonable reliability and depended on the method of forecasting-static or dynamic. CONCLUSIONS: Good predictive ability of influenza epidemics is critical for implementing mitigation strategies in an effective and timely manner. Through the process of predictive validation applied to a current complex simulation model of influenza spread, we provided users of the model (e.g. public-health officials and policy-makers with quantitative metrics and practical recommendations on mitigating impacts of seasonal influenza epidemics. This methodology may be applied to other models of communicable infectious diseases to test and potentially improve

  17. Predictive Validation of an Influenza Spread Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hyder, Ayaz; Buckeridge, David L.; Leung, Brian

    2013-01-01

    Background Modeling plays a critical role in mitigating impacts of seasonal influenza epidemics. Complex simulation models are currently at the forefront of evaluating optimal mitigation strategies at multiple scales and levels of organization. Given their evaluative role, these models remain limited in their ability to predict and forecast future epidemics leading some researchers and public-health practitioners to question their usefulness. The objective of this study is to evaluate the predictive ability of an existing complex simulation model of influenza spread. Methods and Findings We used extensive data on past epidemics to demonstrate the process of predictive validation. This involved generalizing an individual-based model for influenza spread and fitting it to laboratory-confirmed influenza infection data from a single observed epidemic (1998–1999). Next, we used the fitted model and modified two of its parameters based on data on real-world perturbations (vaccination coverage by age group and strain type). Simulating epidemics under these changes allowed us to estimate the deviation/error between the expected epidemic curve under perturbation and observed epidemics taking place from 1999 to 2006. Our model was able to forecast absolute intensity and epidemic peak week several weeks earlier with reasonable reliability and depended on the method of forecasting-static or dynamic. Conclusions Good predictive ability of influenza epidemics is critical for implementing mitigation strategies in an effective and timely manner. Through the process of predictive validation applied to a current complex simulation model of influenza spread, we provided users of the model (e.g. public-health officials and policy-makers) with quantitative metrics and practical recommendations on mitigating impacts of seasonal influenza epidemics. This methodology may be applied to other models of communicable infectious diseases to test and potentially improve their predictive

  18. Energy levels in YPO{sub 4}:Ce{sup 3+},Sm{sup 3+} studied by thermally and optically stimulated luminescence

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bos, Adrie J.J., E-mail: a.j.j.bos@tudelft.n [Delft University of Technology, Mekelweg 15, NL 2629 JB Delft (Netherlands); Poolton, Nigel R.J. [Delft University of Technology, Mekelweg 15, NL 2629 JB Delft (Netherlands); Institute of Maths and Physics, Aberystwyth University, Aberystwyth SY23 3BZ (United Kingdom); Wallinga, Jakob [Netherlands Centre for Luminescence Dating, Delft University of Technology, Mekelweg 15, NL 2629 JB Delft (Netherlands); Bessiere, Aurelie [Ecole Nat. Superieure de Chimie de Paris, 11 Rue P et M Curie, 75231 Paris Cedex 05 (France); Dorenbos, Pieter [Delft University of Technology, Mekelweg 15, NL 2629 JB Delft (Netherlands)

    2010-03-15

    Energy-resolved optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) spectra and thermoluminescence (TL) glow curves of a powder sample of YPO{sub 4}:Ce{sup 3+},Sm{sup 3+} were measured to investigate the nature of the trapping centre and to locate its energy level relative to the valence and conduction bands of the YPO{sub 4} host. The high-temperature glow peak could unequivocally be assigned to Sm{sup 2+} (thus Sm{sup 3+} acts as an electron trap). The trap depth of this centre, as derived from the OSL excitation spectra, is in good agreement with the Dorenbos model prediction. The OSL excitation spectra also reveal excited states of Sm{sup 2+} well below the conduction band. These excited states produce a broadening of the high-temperature TL glow peak and also cause the activation energy determined by the Hoogenstraten method to underestimate the trap depth.

  19. Structural and Magnetic Properties of Sm Implanted GaN

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li-Juan, Jiang; Xiao-Liang, Wang; Hong-Ling, Xiao; Zhan-Guo, Wang; Chun, Feng; Ming-Lan, Zhang; Jian, Tang

    2009-01-01

    The structural and magnetic properties of Sm ion-implanted GaN with different Sm concentrations are investigated. XRD results do not show any peaks associated with second phase formation. Magnetic investigations performed by superconducting quantum interference device reveal ferromagnetic behavior with an ordering temperature above room temperature in all the implanted samples, while the effective magnetic moment per Sm obtained from saturation magnetization gives a much higher value than the atomic moment of Sm. These results could be explained by the phenomenological model proposed by Dhar et al. [Phys. Rev. Lett. 94(2005)037205, Phys. Rev. B 72(2005)245203] in terms of a long-range spin polarization of the GaN matrix by the Sm atoms. (condensed matter: electronicstructure, electrical, magnetic, and opticalproperties)

  20. Impact of numerical choices on water conservation in the E3SM Atmosphere Model version 1 (EAMv1

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Zhang

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available The conservation of total water is an important numerical feature for global Earth system models. Even small conservation problems in the water budget can lead to systematic errors in century-long simulations. This study quantifies and reduces various sources of water conservation error in the atmosphere component of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model. Several sources of water conservation error have been identified during the development of the version 1 (V1 model. The largest errors result from the numerical coupling between the resolved dynamics and the parameterized sub-grid physics. A hybrid coupling using different methods for fluid dynamics and tracer transport provides a reduction of water conservation error by a factor of 50 at 1° horizontal resolution as well as consistent improvements at other resolutions. The second largest error source is the use of an overly simplified relationship between the surface moisture flux and latent heat flux at the interface between the host model and the turbulence parameterization. This error can be prevented by applying the same (correct relationship throughout the entire model. Two additional types of conservation error that result from correcting the surface moisture flux and clipping negative water concentrations can be avoided by using mass-conserving fixers. With all four error sources addressed, the water conservation error in the V1 model becomes negligible and insensitive to the horizontal resolution. The associated changes in the long-term statistics of the main atmospheric features are small. A sensitivity analysis is carried out to show that the magnitudes of the conservation errors in early V1 versions decrease strongly with temporal resolution but increase with horizontal resolution. The increased vertical resolution in V1 results in a very thin model layer at the Earth's surface, which amplifies the conservation error associated with the surface moisture flux correction. We note

  1. Finding Furfural Hydrogenation Catalysts via Predictive Modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strassberger, Zea; Mooijman, Maurice; Ruijter, Eelco; Alberts, Albert H; Maldonado, Ana G; Orru, Romano V A; Rothenberg, Gadi

    2010-09-10

    We combine multicomponent reactions, catalytic performance studies and predictive modelling to find transfer hydrogenation catalysts. An initial set of 18 ruthenium-carbene complexes were synthesized and screened in the transfer hydrogenation of furfural to furfurol with isopropyl alcohol complexes gave varied yields, from 62% up to >99.9%, with no obvious structure/activity correlations. Control experiments proved that the carbene ligand remains coordinated to the ruthenium centre throughout the reaction. Deuterium-labelling studies showed a secondary isotope effect (k(H):k(D)=1.5). Further mechanistic studies showed that this transfer hydrogenation follows the so-called monohydride pathway. Using these data, we built a predictive model for 13 of the catalysts, based on 2D and 3D molecular descriptors. We tested and validated the model using the remaining five catalysts (cross-validation, R(2)=0.913). Then, with this model, the conversion and selectivity were predicted for four completely new ruthenium-carbene complexes. These four catalysts were then synthesized and tested. The results were within 3% of the model's predictions, demonstrating the validity and value of predictive modelling in catalyst optimization.

  2. Review of electroweak fits of the SM and beyond, after the Higgs discovery -- with Gfitter

    CERN Document Server

    Baak, M

    2014-01-01

    We present an update of the global Standard Model (SM) fit to electroweak precision data under the assumption that the new particle discovered at the LHC is the SM Higgs boson. In this scenario all parameters entering the calculations of electroweak precision observables are known, allowing to over-constrain the SM at the electroweak scale and to assert its validity. Within the SM the W boson mass and the effective weak mixing angle can now be accurately predicted from the global fit. Their results exceed in precision the direct measurements. A determination of the S , T and U parameters, which parametrize the oblique vacuum corrections, is given. We examine the impact of the STU observables on a model of modified couplings of the Higgs boson to gauge bosons, and compare this with the corresponding analysis of LHC measurements of the signal strength of Higgs channels. Future measurements at the International Linear Collider (ILC) promise to improve significantly the experimental precision of key observables u...

  3. Corporate prediction models, ratios or regression analysis?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bijnen, E.J.; Wijn, M.F.C.M.

    1994-01-01

    The models developed in the literature with respect to the prediction of a company s failure are based on ratios. It has been shown before that these models should be rejected on theoretical grounds. Our study of industrial companies in the Netherlands shows that the ratios which are used in

  4. Predicting Protein Secondary Structure with Markov Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fischer, Paul; Larsen, Simon; Thomsen, Claus

    2004-01-01

    we are considering here, is to predict the secondary structure from the primary one. To this end we train a Markov model on training data and then use it to classify parts of unknown protein sequences as sheets, helices or coils. We show how to exploit the directional information contained...... in the Markov model for this task. Classifications that are purely based on statistical models might not always be biologically meaningful. We present combinatorial methods to incorporate biological background knowledge to enhance the prediction performance....

  5. Energy based prediction models for building acoustics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brunskog, Jonas

    2012-01-01

    In order to reach robust and simplified yet accurate prediction models, energy based principle are commonly used in many fields of acoustics, especially in building acoustics. This includes simple energy flow models, the framework of statistical energy analysis (SEA) as well as more elaborated...... principles as, e.g., wave intensity analysis (WIA). The European standards for building acoustic predictions, the EN 12354 series, are based on energy flow and SEA principles. In the present paper, different energy based prediction models are discussed and critically reviewed. Special attention is placed...... on underlying basic assumptions, such as diffuse fields, high modal overlap, resonant field being dominant, etc., and the consequences of these in terms of limitations in the theory and in the practical use of the models....

  6. Comparative Study of Bancruptcy Prediction Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isye Arieshanti

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Early indication of bancruptcy is important for a company. If companies aware of  potency of their bancruptcy, they can take a preventive action to anticipate the bancruptcy. In order to detect the potency of a bancruptcy, a company can utilize a a model of bancruptcy prediction. The prediction model can be built using a machine learning methods. However, the choice of machine learning methods should be performed carefully. Because the suitability of a model depends on the problem specifically. Therefore, in this paper we perform a comparative study of several machine leaning methods for bancruptcy prediction. According to the comparative study, the performance of several models that based on machine learning methods (k-NN, fuzzy k-NN, SVM, Bagging Nearest Neighbour SVM, Multilayer Perceptron(MLP, Hybrid of MLP + Multiple Linear Regression, it can be showed that fuzzy k-NN method achieve the best performance with accuracy 77.5%

  7. Prediction Models for Dynamic Demand Response

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aman, Saima; Frincu, Marc; Chelmis, Charalampos; Noor, Muhammad; Simmhan, Yogesh; Prasanna, Viktor K.

    2015-11-02

    As Smart Grids move closer to dynamic curtailment programs, Demand Response (DR) events will become necessary not only on fixed time intervals and weekdays predetermined by static policies, but also during changing decision periods and weekends to react to real-time demand signals. Unique challenges arise in this context vis-a-vis demand prediction and curtailment estimation and the transformation of such tasks into an automated, efficient dynamic demand response (D2R) process. While existing work has concentrated on increasing the accuracy of prediction models for DR, there is a lack of studies for prediction models for D2R, which we address in this paper. Our first contribution is the formal definition of D2R, and the description of its challenges and requirements. Our second contribution is a feasibility analysis of very-short-term prediction of electricity consumption for D2R over a diverse, large-scale dataset that includes both small residential customers and large buildings. Our third, and major contribution is a set of insights into the predictability of electricity consumption in the context of D2R. Specifically, we focus on prediction models that can operate at a very small data granularity (here 15-min intervals), for both weekdays and weekends - all conditions that characterize scenarios for D2R. We find that short-term time series and simple averaging models used by Independent Service Operators and utilities achieve superior prediction accuracy. We also observe that workdays are more predictable than weekends and holiday. Also, smaller customers have large variation in consumption and are less predictable than larger buildings. Key implications of our findings are that better models are required for small customers and for non-workdays, both of which are critical for D2R. Also, prediction models require just few days’ worth of data indicating that small amounts of

  8. SM2RAIN-CCI: a new global long-term rainfall data set derived from ESA CCI soil moisture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ciabatta, Luca; Massari, Christian; Brocca, Luca; Gruber, Alexander; Reimer, Christoph; Hahn, Sebastian; Paulik, Christoph; Dorigo, Wouter; Kidd, Richard; Wagner, Wolfgang

    2018-02-01

    Accurate and long-term rainfall estimates are the main inputs for several applications, from crop modeling to climate analysis. In this study, we present a new rainfall data set (SM2RAIN-CCI) obtained from the inversion of the satellite soil moisture (SM) observations derived from the ESA Climate Change Initiative (CCI) via SM2RAIN (Brocca et al., 2014). Daily rainfall estimates are generated for an 18-year long period (1998-2015), with a spatial sampling of 0.25° on a global scale, and are based on the integration of the ACTIVE and the PASSIVE ESA CCI SM data sets.The quality of the SM2RAIN-CCI rainfall data set is evaluated by comparing it with two state-of-the-art rainfall satellite products, i.e. the Tropical Measurement Mission Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis 3B42 real-time product (TMPA 3B42RT) and the Climate Prediction Center Morphing Technique (CMORPH), and one modeled data set (ERA-Interim). A quality check is carried out on a global scale at 1° of spatial sampling and 5 days of temporal sampling by comparing these products with the gauge-based Global Precipitation Climatology Centre Full Data Daily (GPCC-FDD) product. SM2RAIN-CCI shows relatively good results in terms of correlation coefficient (median value > 0.56), root mean square difference (RMSD, median value test the capabilities of the data set to correctly identify rainfall events under different climate and precipitation regimes.The SM2RAIN-CCI rainfall data set is freely available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.846259.

  9. Evaluation of CASP8 model quality predictions

    KAUST Repository

    Cozzetto, Domenico

    2009-01-01

    The model quality assessment problem consists in the a priori estimation of the overall and per-residue accuracy of protein structure predictions. Over the past years, a number of methods have been developed to address this issue and CASP established a prediction category to evaluate their performance in 2006. In 2008 the experiment was repeated and its results are reported here. Participants were invited to infer the correctness of the protein models submitted by the registered automatic servers. Estimates could apply to both whole models and individual amino acids. Groups involved in the tertiary structure prediction categories were also asked to assign local error estimates to each predicted residue in their own models and their results are also discussed here. The correlation between the predicted and observed correctness measures was the basis of the assessment of the results. We observe that consensus-based methods still perform significantly better than those accepting single models, similarly to what was concluded in the previous edition of the experiment. © 2009 WILEY-LISS, INC.

  10. Finding Furfural Hydrogenation Catalysts via Predictive Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strassberger, Zea; Mooijman, Maurice; Ruijter, Eelco; Alberts, Albert H; Maldonado, Ana G; Orru, Romano V A; Rothenberg, Gadi

    2010-01-01

    Abstract We combine multicomponent reactions, catalytic performance studies and predictive modelling to find transfer hydrogenation catalysts. An initial set of 18 ruthenium-carbene complexes were synthesized and screened in the transfer hydrogenation of furfural to furfurol with isopropyl alcohol complexes gave varied yields, from 62% up to >99.9%, with no obvious structure/activity correlations. Control experiments proved that the carbene ligand remains coordinated to the ruthenium centre throughout the reaction. Deuterium-labelling studies showed a secondary isotope effect (kH:kD=1.5). Further mechanistic studies showed that this transfer hydrogenation follows the so-called monohydride pathway. Using these data, we built a predictive model for 13 of the catalysts, based on 2D and 3D molecular descriptors. We tested and validated the model using the remaining five catalysts (cross-validation, R2=0.913). Then, with this model, the conversion and selectivity were predicted for four completely new ruthenium-carbene complexes. These four catalysts were then synthesized and tested. The results were within 3% of the model’s predictions, demonstrating the validity and value of predictive modelling in catalyst optimization. PMID:23193388

  11. Wind farm production prediction - The Zephyr model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Landberg, L. [Risoe National Lab., Wind Energy Dept., Roskilde (Denmark); Giebel, G. [Risoe National Lab., Wind Energy Dept., Roskilde (Denmark); Madsen, H. [IMM (DTU), Kgs. Lyngby (Denmark); Nielsen, T.S. [IMM (DTU), Kgs. Lyngby (Denmark); Joergensen, J.U. [Danish Meteorologisk Inst., Copenhagen (Denmark); Lauersen, L. [Danish Meteorologisk Inst., Copenhagen (Denmark); Toefting, J. [Elsam, Fredericia (DK); Christensen, H.S. [Eltra, Fredericia (Denmark); Bjerge, C. [SEAS, Haslev (Denmark)

    2002-06-01

    This report describes a project - funded by the Danish Ministry of Energy and the Environment - which developed a next generation prediction system called Zephyr. The Zephyr system is a merging between two state-of-the-art prediction systems: Prediktor of Risoe National Laboratory and WPPT of IMM at the Danish Technical University. The numerical weather predictions were generated by DMI's HIRLAM model. Due to technical difficulties programming the system, only the computational core and a very simple version of the originally very complex system were developed. The project partners were: Risoe, DMU, DMI, Elsam, Eltra, Elkraft System, SEAS and E2. (au)

  12. Model predictive controller design of hydrocracker reactors

    OpenAIRE

    GÖKÇE, Dila

    2011-01-01

    This study summarizes the design of a Model Predictive Controller (MPC) in Tüpraş, İzmit Refinery Hydrocracker Unit Reactors. Hydrocracking process, in which heavy vacuum gasoil is converted into lighter and valuable products at high temperature and pressure is described briefly. Controller design description, identification and modeling studies are examined and the model variables are presented. WABT (Weighted Average Bed Temperature) equalization and conversion increase are simulate...

  13. Multi-Model Ensemble Wake Vortex Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koerner, Stephan; Holzaepfel, Frank; Ahmad, Nash'at N.

    2015-01-01

    Several multi-model ensemble methods are investigated for predicting wake vortex transport and decay. This study is a joint effort between National Aeronautics and Space Administration and Deutsches Zentrum fuer Luft- und Raumfahrt to develop a multi-model ensemble capability using their wake models. An overview of different multi-model ensemble methods and their feasibility for wake applications is presented. The methods include Reliability Ensemble Averaging, Bayesian Model Averaging, and Monte Carlo Simulations. The methodologies are evaluated using data from wake vortex field experiments.

  14. Risk terrain modeling predicts child maltreatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daley, Dyann; Bachmann, Michael; Bachmann, Brittany A; Pedigo, Christian; Bui, Minh-Thuy; Coffman, Jamye

    2016-12-01

    As indicated by research on the long-term effects of adverse childhood experiences (ACEs), maltreatment has far-reaching consequences for affected children. Effective prevention measures have been elusive, partly due to difficulty in identifying vulnerable children before they are harmed. This study employs Risk Terrain Modeling (RTM), an analysis of the cumulative effect of environmental factors thought to be conducive for child maltreatment, to create a highly accurate prediction model for future substantiated child maltreatment cases in the City of Fort Worth, Texas. The model is superior to commonly used hotspot predictions and more beneficial in aiding prevention efforts in a number of ways: 1) it identifies the highest risk areas for future instances of child maltreatment with improved precision and accuracy; 2) it aids the prioritization of risk-mitigating efforts by informing about the relative importance of the most significant contributing risk factors; 3) since predictions are modeled as a function of easily obtainable data, practitioners do not have to undergo the difficult process of obtaining official child maltreatment data to apply it; 4) the inclusion of a multitude of environmental risk factors creates a more robust model with higher predictive validity; and, 5) the model does not rely on a retrospective examination of past instances of child maltreatment, but adapts predictions to changing environmental conditions. The present study introduces and examines the predictive power of this new tool to aid prevention efforts seeking to improve the safety, health, and wellbeing of vulnerable children. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  15. Spatial correlation structure of the ionosphere predicted by geomagnetic indices and application to global field modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holschneider, M.; Ferrat, K.; Lesur, V.; Stolle, C.

    2017-12-01

    Ionospheric fields are modelled in terms of random structures taking into account a mean behaviour as well as random fluctuations which are described through two point correlation kernels. These kernels are estimated from long time series of numerical simulations from various models. These correlations are best expressed in SM system of coordinates. For the moment we limit ourselves to spatial correlations only in this coordinate system. We study the influence of various indices as possible predictor parameters for these correlations as well as seasonal effects. The various time series of ionospheric fields are stored in a HDF5 database which is accessible via a web interface. The obtained correlation structures serve as prior information to separate external and internal field components from observatory based measurements. We present a model that predicts the correlations as a function of time and some geomagnetic indices. First results of the inversion from observatory data are presented.

  16. PREDICTIVE CAPACITY OF ARCH FAMILY MODELS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raphael Silveira Amaro

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available In the last decades, a remarkable number of models, variants from the Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic family, have been developed and empirically tested, making extremely complex the process of choosing a particular model. This research aim to compare the predictive capacity, using the Model Confidence Set procedure, than five conditional heteroskedasticity models, considering eight different statistical probability distributions. The financial series which were used refers to the log-return series of the Bovespa index and the Dow Jones Industrial Index in the period between 27 October 2008 and 30 December 2014. The empirical evidences showed that, in general, competing models have a great homogeneity to make predictions, either for a stock market of a developed country or for a stock market of a developing country. An equivalent result can be inferred for the statistical probability distributions that were used.

  17. Alcator C-Mod predictive modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pankin, Alexei; Bateman, Glenn; Kritz, Arnold; Greenwald, Martin; Snipes, Joseph; Fredian, Thomas

    2001-01-01

    Predictive simulations for the Alcator C-mod tokamak [I. Hutchinson et al., Phys. Plasmas 1, 1511 (1994)] are carried out using the BALDUR integrated modeling code [C. E. Singer et al., Comput. Phys. Commun. 49, 275 (1988)]. The results are obtained for temperature and density profiles using the Multi-Mode transport model [G. Bateman et al., Phys. Plasmas 5, 1793 (1998)] as well as the mixed-Bohm/gyro-Bohm transport model [M. Erba et al., Plasma Phys. Controlled Fusion 39, 261 (1997)]. The simulated discharges are characterized by very high plasma density in both low and high modes of confinement. The predicted profiles for each of the transport models match the experimental data about equally well in spite of the fact that the two models have different dimensionless scalings. Average relative rms deviations are less than 8% for the electron density profiles and 16% for the electron and ion temperature profiles

  18. Structure-function analysis and genetic interactions of the SmG, SmE, and SmF subunits of the yeast Sm protein ring.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwer, Beate; Kruchten, Joshua; Shuman, Stewart

    2016-09-01

    A seven-subunit Sm protein ring forms a core scaffold of the U1, U2, U4, and U5 snRNPs that direct pre-mRNA splicing. Using human snRNP structures to guide mutagenesis in Saccharomyces cerevisiae, we gained new insights into structure-function relationships of the SmG, SmE, and SmF subunits. An alanine scan of 19 conserved amino acids of these three proteins, comprising the Sm RNA binding sites or inter-subunit interfaces, revealed that, with the exception of Arg74 in SmF, none are essential for yeast growth. Yet, for SmG, SmE, and SmF, as for many components of the yeast spliceosome, the effects of perturbing protein-RNA and protein-protein interactions are masked by built-in functional redundancies of the splicing machine. For example, tests for genetic interactions with non-Sm splicing factors showed that many benign mutations of SmG, SmE, and SmF (and of SmB and SmD3) were synthetically lethal with null alleles of U2 snRNP subunits Lea1 and Msl1. Tests of pairwise combinations of SmG, SmE, SmF, SmB, and SmD3 alleles highlighted the inherent redundancies within the Sm ring, whereby simultaneous mutations of the RNA binding sites of any two of the Sm subunits are lethal. Our results suggest that six intact RNA binding sites in the Sm ring suffice for function but five sites may not. © 2016 Schwer et al.; Published by Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press for the RNA Society.

  19. Structure–function analysis and genetic interactions of the SmG, SmE, and SmF subunits of the yeast Sm protein ring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwer, Beate; Kruchten, Joshua; Shuman, Stewart

    2016-01-01

    A seven-subunit Sm protein ring forms a core scaffold of the U1, U2, U4, and U5 snRNPs that direct pre-mRNA splicing. Using human snRNP structures to guide mutagenesis in Saccharomyces cerevisiae, we gained new insights into structure–function relationships of the SmG, SmE, and SmF subunits. An alanine scan of 19 conserved amino acids of these three proteins, comprising the Sm RNA binding sites or inter-subunit interfaces, revealed that, with the exception of Arg74 in SmF, none are essential for yeast growth. Yet, for SmG, SmE, and SmF, as for many components of the yeast spliceosome, the effects of perturbing protein–RNA and protein–protein interactions are masked by built-in functional redundancies of the splicing machine. For example, tests for genetic interactions with non-Sm splicing factors showed that many benign mutations of SmG, SmE, and SmF (and of SmB and SmD3) were synthetically lethal with null alleles of U2 snRNP subunits Lea1 and Msl1. Tests of pairwise combinations of SmG, SmE, SmF, SmB, and SmD3 alleles highlighted the inherent redundancies within the Sm ring, whereby simultaneous mutations of the RNA binding sites of any two of the Sm subunits are lethal. Our results suggest that six intact RNA binding sites in the Sm ring suffice for function but five sites may not. PMID:27417296

  20. Modelling the predictive performance of credit scoring

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shi-Wei Shen

    2013-07-01

    Research purpose: The purpose of this empirical paper was to examine the predictive performance of credit scoring systems in Taiwan. Motivation for the study: Corporate lending remains a major business line for financial institutions. However, in light of the recent global financial crises, it has become extremely important for financial institutions to implement rigorous means of assessing clients seeking access to credit facilities. Research design, approach and method: Using a data sample of 10 349 observations drawn between 1992 and 2010, logistic regression models were utilised to examine the predictive performance of credit scoring systems. Main findings: A test of Goodness of fit demonstrated that credit scoring models that incorporated the Taiwan Corporate Credit Risk Index (TCRI, micro- and also macroeconomic variables possessed greater predictive power. This suggests that macroeconomic variables do have explanatory power for default credit risk. Practical/managerial implications: The originality in the study was that three models were developed to predict corporate firms’ defaults based on different microeconomic and macroeconomic factors such as the TCRI, asset growth rates, stock index and gross domestic product. Contribution/value-add: The study utilises different goodness of fits and receiver operator characteristics during the examination of the robustness of the predictive power of these factors.

  1. Defect model of a tetragonal Sm sup 3 sup + center found from EPR measurements in CaF sub 2 and SrF sub 2 crystals

    CERN Document Server

    Zheng Wen Chen; Wu Shao Yi; Tang Sheng

    2003-01-01

    The EPR parameters (g factors g sub p sub a sub r sub a sub l sub l sub e sub l , g sub p sub e sub r sub p sub e sub n sub d sub i sub c sub u sub l sub a sub r sub t sub o and hyperfine structure constants A sub p sub a sub r sub a sub l sub l sub e sub l , A sub p sub e sub r sub p sub e sub n sub d sub i sub c sub u sub l sub a sub r sub t sub o) of a tetragonal (C sub 4 sub v) Sm sup 3 sup + center in CaF sub 2 and SrF sub 2 crystals are calculated by considering the crystal-field J-mixing among the ground sup 6 H sub 5 sub / sub 2 , the first excited sup 6 H sub 7 sub / sub 2 and second excited sup 6 H sub 9 sub / sub 2 state multiplets. In the calculations the free-ion and crystal-field parameters of the tetragonal Sm sup 3 sup + -F sup - center obtained from polarized laser-selective excitation spectroscopy are used. The calculated results suggest that the tetragonal Sm sup 3 sup + -F sup - center is the Sm sup 3 sup + center found by later EPR measurements. The g factors g sub p sub a sub r sub a sub...

  2. Comparison of two ordinal prediction models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kattan, Michael W; Gerds, Thomas A

    2015-01-01

    system (i.e. old or new), such as the level of evidence for one or more factors included in the system or the general opinions of expert clinicians. However, given the major objective of estimating prognosis on an ordinal scale, we argue that the rival staging system candidates should be compared...... on their ability to predict outcome. We sought to outline an algorithm that would compare two rival ordinal systems on their predictive ability. RESULTS: We devised an algorithm based largely on the concordance index, which is appropriate for comparing two models in their ability to rank observations. We...... demonstrate our algorithm with a prostate cancer staging system example. CONCLUSION: We have provided an algorithm for selecting the preferred staging system based on prognostic accuracy. It appears to be useful for the purpose of selecting between two ordinal prediction models....

  3. Predictive analytics can support the ACO model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bradley, Paul

    2012-04-01

    Predictive analytics can be used to rapidly spot hard-to-identify opportunities to better manage care--a key tool in accountable care. When considering analytics models, healthcare providers should: Make value-based care a priority and act on information from analytics models. Create a road map that includes achievable steps, rather than major endeavors. Set long-term expectations and recognize that the effectiveness of an analytics program takes time, unlike revenue cycle initiatives that may show a quick return.

  4. Predictive performance models and multiple task performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wickens, Christopher D.; Larish, Inge; Contorer, Aaron

    1989-01-01

    Five models that predict how performance of multiple tasks will interact in complex task scenarios are discussed. The models are shown in terms of the assumptions they make about human operator divided attention. The different assumptions about attention are then empirically validated in a multitask helicopter flight simulation. It is concluded from this simulation that the most important assumption relates to the coding of demand level of different component tasks.

  5. Model Predictive Control of Sewer Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Einar B.; Herbertsson, Hannes R.; Niemann, Henrik

    2016-01-01

    The developments in solutions for management of urban drainage are of vital importance, as the amount of sewer water from urban areas continues to increase due to the increase of the world’s population and the change in the climate conditions. How a sewer network is structured, monitored and cont...... benchmark model. Due to the inherent constraints the applied approach is based on Model Predictive Control....

  6. Distributed Model Predictive Control via Dual Decomposition

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Biegel, Benjamin; Stoustrup, Jakob; Andersen, Palle

    2014-01-01

    This chapter presents dual decomposition as a means to coordinate a number of subsystems coupled by state and input constraints. Each subsystem is equipped with a local model predictive controller while a centralized entity manages the subsystems via prices associated with the coupling constraints...

  7. A stepwise model to predict monthly streamflow

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahmood Al-Juboori, Anas; Guven, Aytac

    2016-12-01

    In this study, a stepwise model empowered with genetic programming is developed to predict the monthly flows of Hurman River in Turkey and Diyalah and Lesser Zab Rivers in Iraq. The model divides the monthly flow data to twelve intervals representing the number of months in a year. The flow of a month, t is considered as a function of the antecedent month's flow (t - 1) and it is predicted by multiplying the antecedent monthly flow by a constant value called K. The optimum value of K is obtained by a stepwise procedure which employs Gene Expression Programming (GEP) and Nonlinear Generalized Reduced Gradient Optimization (NGRGO) as alternative to traditional nonlinear regression technique. The degree of determination and root mean squared error are used to evaluate the performance of the proposed models. The results of the proposed model are compared with the conventional Markovian and Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models based on observed monthly flow data. The comparison results based on five different statistic measures show that the proposed stepwise model performed better than Markovian model and ARIMA model. The R2 values of the proposed model range between 0.81 and 0.92 for the three rivers in this study.

  8. X(5 Symmetry to 152Sm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eid S. A.

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available The excited positive and negative parity states, potential energy surfaces, V ( ; , electromagnetic transition probabilities, B ( E 1, B ( E 2, electric monopole strength X ( E 0 = E 2 and staggering e ect, I = 1, were calculated successfully using the inter- acting boson approximation model IBA -1. The calculated values are compared to the available experimental data and show reasonable agreement. The energy ratios and contour plot of the potential energy surfaces show that 152 Sm is an X (5 candidate.

  9. Electrostatic ion thrusters - towards predictive modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kalentev, O.; Matyash, K.; Duras, J.; Lueskow, K.F.; Schneider, R. [Ernst-Moritz-Arndt Universitaet Greifswald, D-17489 (Germany); Koch, N. [Technische Hochschule Nuernberg Georg Simon Ohm, Kesslerplatz 12, D-90489 Nuernberg (Germany); Schirra, M. [Thales Electronic Systems GmbH, Soeflinger Strasse 100, D-89077 Ulm (Germany)

    2014-02-15

    The development of electrostatic ion thrusters so far has mainly been based on empirical and qualitative know-how, and on evolutionary iteration steps. This resulted in considerable effort regarding prototype design, construction and testing and therefore in significant development and qualification costs and high time demands. For future developments it is anticipated to implement simulation tools which allow for quantitative prediction of ion thruster performance, long-term behavior and space craft interaction prior to hardware design and construction. Based on integrated numerical models combining self-consistent kinetic plasma models with plasma-wall interaction modules a new quality in the description of electrostatic thrusters can be reached. These open the perspective for predictive modeling in this field. This paper reviews the application of a set of predictive numerical modeling tools on an ion thruster model of the HEMP-T (High Efficiency Multi-stage Plasma Thruster) type patented by Thales Electron Devices GmbH. (copyright 2014 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH and Co. KGaA, Weinheim) (orig.)

  10. An Intelligent Model for Stock Market Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    IbrahimM. Hamed

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an intelligent model for stock market signal prediction using Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP Artificial Neural Networks (ANN. Blind source separation technique, from signal processing, is integrated with the learning phase of the constructed baseline MLP ANN to overcome the problems of prediction accuracy and lack of generalization. Kullback Leibler Divergence (KLD is used, as a learning algorithm, because it converges fast and provides generalization in the learning mechanism. Both accuracy and efficiency of the proposed model were confirmed through the Microsoft stock, from wall-street market, and various data sets, from different sectors of the Egyptian stock market. In addition, sensitivity analysis was conducted on the various parameters of the model to ensure the coverage of the generalization issue. Finally, statistical significance was examined using ANOVA test.

  11. Predictive Models, How good are they?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kasch, Helge

    The WAD grading system has been used for more than 20 years by now. It has shown long-term viability, but with strengths and limitations. New bio-psychosocial assessment of the acute whiplash injured subject may provide better prediction of long-term disability and pain. Furthermore, the emerging......-up. It is important to obtain prospective identification of the relevant risk underreported disability could, if we were able to expose these hidden “risk-factors” during our consultations, provide us with better predictive models. New data from large clinical studies will present exciting new genetic risk markers...

  12. NONLINEAR MODEL PREDICTIVE CONTROL OF CHEMICAL PROCESSES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SILVA R. G.

    1999-01-01

    Full Text Available A new algorithm for model predictive control is presented. The algorithm utilizes a simultaneous solution and optimization strategy to solve the model's differential equations. The equations are discretized by equidistant collocation, and along with the algebraic model equations are included as constraints in a nonlinear programming (NLP problem. This algorithm is compared with the algorithm that uses orthogonal collocation on finite elements. The equidistant collocation algorithm results in simpler equations, providing a decrease in computation time for the control moves. Simulation results are presented and show a satisfactory performance of this algorithm.

  13. A statistical model for predicting muscle performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byerly, Diane Leslie De Caix

    The objective of these studies was to develop a capability for predicting muscle performance and fatigue to be utilized for both space- and ground-based applications. To develop this predictive model, healthy test subjects performed a defined, repetitive dynamic exercise to failure using a Lordex spinal machine. Throughout the exercise, surface electromyography (SEMG) data were collected from the erector spinae using a Mega Electronics ME3000 muscle tester and surface electrodes placed on both sides of the back muscle. These data were analyzed using a 5th order Autoregressive (AR) model and statistical regression analysis. It was determined that an AR derived parameter, the mean average magnitude of AR poles, significantly correlated with the maximum number of repetitions (designated Rmax) that a test subject was able to perform. Using the mean average magnitude of AR poles, a test subject's performance to failure could be predicted as early as the sixth repetition of the exercise. This predictive model has the potential to provide a basis for improving post-space flight recovery, monitoring muscle atrophy in astronauts and assessing the effectiveness of countermeasures, monitoring astronaut performance and fatigue during Extravehicular Activity (EVA) operations, providing pre-flight assessment of the ability of an EVA crewmember to perform a given task, improving the design of training protocols and simulations for strenuous International Space Station assembly EVA, and enabling EVA work task sequences to be planned enhancing astronaut performance and safety. Potential ground-based, medical applications of the predictive model include monitoring muscle deterioration and performance resulting from illness, establishing safety guidelines in the industry for repetitive tasks, monitoring the stages of rehabilitation for muscle-related injuries sustained in sports and accidents, and enhancing athletic performance through improved training protocols while reducing

  14. Prediction models : the right tool for the right problem

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kappen, Teus H.; Peelen, Linda M.

    2016-01-01

    PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Perioperative prediction models can help to improve personalized patient care by providing individual risk predictions to both patients and providers. However, the scientific literature on prediction model development and validation can be quite technical and challenging to

  15. Neuro-fuzzy modeling in bankruptcy prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vlachos D.

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available For the past 30 years the problem of bankruptcy prediction had been thoroughly studied. From the paper of Altman in 1968 to the recent papers in the '90s, the progress of prediction accuracy was not satisfactory. This paper investigates an alternative modeling of the system (firm, combining neural networks and fuzzy controllers, i.e. using neuro-fuzzy models. Classical modeling is based on mathematical models that describe the behavior of the firm under consideration. The main idea of fuzzy control, on the other hand, is to build a model of a human control expert who is capable of controlling the process without thinking in a mathematical model. This control expert specifies his control action in the form of linguistic rules. These control rules are translated into the framework of fuzzy set theory providing a calculus, which can stimulate the behavior of the control expert and enhance its performance. The accuracy of the model is studied using datasets from previous research papers.

  16. Predictive Models for Carcinogenicity and Mutagenicity ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mutagenicity and carcinogenicity are endpoints of major environmental and regulatory concern. These endpoints are also important targets for development of alternative methods for screening and prediction due to the large number of chemicals of potential concern and the tremendous cost (in time, money, animals) of rodent carcinogenicity bioassays. Both mutagenicity and carcinogenicity involve complex, cellular processes that are only partially understood. Advances in technologies and generation of new data will permit a much deeper understanding. In silico methods for predicting mutagenicity and rodent carcinogenicity based on chemical structural features, along with current mutagenicity and carcinogenicity data sets, have performed well for local prediction (i.e., within specific chemical classes), but are less successful for global prediction (i.e., for a broad range of chemicals). The predictivity of in silico methods can be improved by improving the quality of the data base and endpoints used for modelling. In particular, in vitro assays for clastogenicity need to be improved to reduce false positives (relative to rodent carcinogenicity) and to detect compounds that do not interact directly with DNA or have epigenetic activities. New assays emerging to complement or replace some of the standard assays include VitotoxTM, GreenScreenGC, and RadarScreen. The needs of industry and regulators to assess thousands of compounds necessitate the development of high-t

  17. Validated predictive modelling of the environmental resistome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amos, Gregory C A; Gozzard, Emma; Carter, Charlotte E; Mead, Andrew; Bowes, Mike J; Hawkey, Peter M; Zhang, Lihong; Singer, Andrew C; Gaze, William H; Wellington, Elizabeth M H

    2015-06-01

    Multi-drug-resistant bacteria pose a significant threat to public health. The role of the environment in the overall rise in antibiotic-resistant infections and risk to humans is largely unknown. This study aimed to evaluate drivers of antibiotic-resistance levels across the River Thames catchment, model key biotic, spatial and chemical variables and produce predictive models for future risk assessment. Sediment samples from 13 sites across the River Thames basin were taken at four time points across 2011 and 2012. Samples were analysed for class 1 integron prevalence and enumeration of third-generation cephalosporin-resistant bacteria. Class 1 integron prevalence was validated as a molecular marker of antibiotic resistance; levels of resistance showed significant geospatial and temporal variation. The main explanatory variables of resistance levels at each sample site were the number, proximity, size and type of surrounding wastewater-treatment plants. Model 1 revealed treatment plants accounted for 49.5% of the variance in resistance levels. Other contributing factors were extent of different surrounding land cover types (for example, Neutral Grassland), temporal patterns and prior rainfall; when modelling all variables the resulting model (Model 2) could explain 82.9% of variations in resistance levels in the whole catchment. Chemical analyses correlated with key indicators of treatment plant effluent and a model (Model 3) was generated based on water quality parameters (contaminant and macro- and micro-nutrient levels). Model 2 was beta tested on independent sites and explained over 78% of the variation in integron prevalence showing a significant predictive ability. We believe all models in this study are highly useful tools for informing and prioritising mitigation strategies to reduce the environmental resistome.

  18. Nonlinear model predictive control theory and algorithms

    CERN Document Server

    Grüne, Lars

    2017-01-01

    This book offers readers a thorough and rigorous introduction to nonlinear model predictive control (NMPC) for discrete-time and sampled-data systems. NMPC schemes with and without stabilizing terminal constraints are detailed, and intuitive examples illustrate the performance of different NMPC variants. NMPC is interpreted as an approximation of infinite-horizon optimal control so that important properties like closed-loop stability, inverse optimality and suboptimality can be derived in a uniform manner. These results are complemented by discussions of feasibility and robustness. An introduction to nonlinear optimal control algorithms yields essential insights into how the nonlinear optimization routine—the core of any nonlinear model predictive controller—works. Accompanying software in MATLAB® and C++ (downloadable from extras.springer.com/), together with an explanatory appendix in the book itself, enables readers to perform computer experiments exploring the possibilities and limitations of NMPC. T...

  19. Baryogenesis model predicting antimatter in the Universe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kirilova, D.

    2003-01-01

    Cosmic ray and gamma-ray data do not rule out antimatter domains in the Universe, separated at distances bigger than 10 Mpc from us. Hence, it is interesting to analyze the possible generation of vast antimatter structures during the early Universe evolution. We discuss a SUSY-condensate baryogenesis model, predicting large separated regions of matter and antimatter. The model provides generation of the small locally observed baryon asymmetry for a natural initial conditions, it predicts vast antimatter domains, separated from the matter ones by baryonically empty voids. The characteristic scale of antimatter regions and their distance from the matter ones is in accordance with observational constraints from cosmic ray, gamma-ray and cosmic microwave background anisotropy data

  20. Finding Furfural Hydrogenation Catalysts via Predictive Modelling

    OpenAIRE

    Strassberger, Zea; Mooijman, Maurice; Ruijter, Eelco; Alberts, Albert H; Maldonado, Ana G; Orru, Romano V A; Rothenberg, Gadi

    2010-01-01

    Abstract We combine multicomponent reactions, catalytic performance studies and predictive modelling to find transfer hydrogenation catalysts. An initial set of 18 ruthenium-carbene complexes were synthesized and screened in the transfer hydrogenation of furfural to furfurol with isopropyl alcohol complexes gave varied yields, from 62% up to >99.9%, with no obvious structure/activity correlations. Control experiments proved that the carbene ligand remains coordinated to the ruthenium centre t...

  1. Predictive Modeling in Actinide Chemistry and Catalysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yang, Ping [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2016-05-16

    These are slides from a presentation on predictive modeling in actinide chemistry and catalysis. The following topics are covered in these slides: Structures, bonding, and reactivity (bonding can be quantified by optical probes and theory, and electronic structures and reaction mechanisms of actinide complexes); Magnetic resonance properties (transition metal catalysts with multi-nuclear centers, and NMR/EPR parameters); Moving to more complex systems (surface chemistry of nanomaterials, and interactions of ligands with nanoparticles); Path forward and conclusions.

  2. Tectonic predictions with mantle convection models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coltice, Nicolas; Shephard, Grace E.

    2018-04-01

    Over the past 15 yr, numerical models of convection in Earth's mantle have made a leap forward: they can now produce self-consistent plate-like behaviour at the surface together with deep mantle circulation. These digital tools provide a new window into the intimate connections between plate tectonics and mantle dynamics, and can therefore be used for tectonic predictions, in principle. This contribution explores this assumption. First, initial conditions at 30, 20, 10 and 0 Ma are generated by driving a convective flow with imposed plate velocities at the surface. We then compute instantaneous mantle flows in response to the guessed temperature fields without imposing any boundary conditions. Plate boundaries self-consistently emerge at correct locations with respect to reconstructions, except for small plates close to subduction zones. As already observed for other types of instantaneous flow calculations, the structure of the top boundary layer and upper-mantle slab is the dominant character that leads to accurate predictions of surface velocities. Perturbations of the rheological parameters have little impact on the resulting surface velocities. We then compute fully dynamic model evolution from 30 and 10 to 0 Ma, without imposing plate boundaries or plate velocities. Contrary to instantaneous calculations, errors in kinematic predictions are substantial, although the plate layout and kinematics in several areas remain consistent with the expectations for the Earth. For these calculations, varying the rheological parameters makes a difference for plate boundary evolution. Also, identified errors in initial conditions contribute to first-order kinematic errors. This experiment shows that the tectonic predictions of dynamic models over 10 My are highly sensitive to uncertainties of rheological parameters and initial temperature field in comparison to instantaneous flow calculations. Indeed, the initial conditions and the rheological parameters can be good enough

  3. Breast cancer risks and risk prediction models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engel, Christoph; Fischer, Christine

    2015-02-01

    BRCA1/2 mutation carriers have a considerably increased risk to develop breast and ovarian cancer. The personalized clinical management of carriers and other at-risk individuals depends on precise knowledge of the cancer risks. In this report, we give an overview of the present literature on empirical cancer risks, and we describe risk prediction models that are currently used for individual risk assessment in clinical practice. Cancer risks show large variability between studies. Breast cancer risks are at 40-87% for BRCA1 mutation carriers and 18-88% for BRCA2 mutation carriers. For ovarian cancer, the risk estimates are in the range of 22-65% for BRCA1 and 10-35% for BRCA2. The contralateral breast cancer risk is high (10-year risk after first cancer 27% for BRCA1 and 19% for BRCA2). Risk prediction models have been proposed to provide more individualized risk prediction, using additional knowledge on family history, mode of inheritance of major genes, and other genetic and non-genetic risk factors. User-friendly software tools have been developed that serve as basis for decision-making in family counseling units. In conclusion, further assessment of cancer risks and model validation is needed, ideally based on prospective cohort studies. To obtain such data, clinical management of carriers and other at-risk individuals should always be accompanied by standardized scientific documentation.

  4. A predictive model for dimensional errors in fused deposition modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stolfi, A.

    2015-01-01

    This work concerns the effect of deposition angle (a) and layer thickness (L) on the dimensional performance of FDM parts using a predictive model based on the geometrical description of the FDM filament profile. An experimental validation over the whole a range from 0° to 177° at 3° steps and two...... values of L (0.254 mm, 0.330 mm) was produced by comparing predicted values with external face-to-face measurements. After removing outliers, the results show that the developed two-parameter model can serve as tool for modeling the FDM dimensional behavior in a wide range of deposition angles....

  5. Estimating the SM background for supersymmetry searches: challenges and methods

    CERN Document Server

    Besjes, G J; The ATLAS collaboration

    2013-01-01

    Supersymmetry features a broad range of possible signatures at the LHC. If R-parity is conserved the production of squarks and gluinos is accompanied by events with hard jets, possibly leptons or photons and missing transverse momentum. Some Standard Model processes also mimic such events, which, due to their large cross sections, represent backgrounds that can fake or hide supersymmetry. While the normalisation of these backgrounds can be obtained from data in dedicated control regions, Monte Carlo simulation is often used to extrapolate the measured event yields from control to signal regions. Next-to-leading order and multi-parton generators are employed to predict these extrapolations for the dominant processes contributing to the SM background: W/Z boson and top pair production in association with (many) jets. The proper estimate of the associated theoretical uncertainties and testing these with data represent challenges. Other important backgrounds are diboson and top pair plus boson events with additio...

  6. Two stage neural network modelling for robust model predictive control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patan, Krzysztof

    2018-01-01

    The paper proposes a novel robust model predictive control scheme realized by means of artificial neural networks. The neural networks are used twofold: to design the so-called fundamental model of a plant and to catch uncertainty associated with the plant model. In order to simplify the optimization process carried out within the framework of predictive control an instantaneous linearization is applied which renders it possible to define the optimization problem in the form of constrained quadratic programming. Stability of the proposed control system is also investigated by showing that a cost function is monotonically decreasing with respect to time. Derived robust model predictive control is tested and validated on the example of a pneumatic servomechanism working at different operating regimes. Copyright © 2017 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Predicting extinction rates in stochastic epidemic models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schwartz, Ira B; Billings, Lora; Dykman, Mark; Landsman, Alexandra

    2009-01-01

    We investigate the stochastic extinction processes in a class of epidemic models. Motivated by the process of natural disease extinction in epidemics, we examine the rate of extinction as a function of disease spread. We show that the effective entropic barrier for extinction in a susceptible–infected–susceptible epidemic model displays scaling with the distance to the bifurcation point, with an unusual critical exponent. We make a direct comparison between predictions and numerical simulations. We also consider the effect of non-Gaussian vaccine schedules, and show numerically how the extinction process may be enhanced when the vaccine schedules are Poisson distributed

  8. Predictive Modeling of the CDRA 4BMS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coker, Robert F.; Knox, James C.

    2016-01-01

    As part of NASA's Advanced Exploration Systems (AES) program and the Life Support Systems Project (LSSP), fully predictive models of the Four Bed Molecular Sieve (4BMS) of the Carbon Dioxide Removal Assembly (CDRA) on the International Space Station (ISS) are being developed. This virtual laboratory will be used to help reduce mass, power, and volume requirements for future missions. In this paper we describe current and planned modeling developments in the area of carbon dioxide removal to support future crewed Mars missions as well as the resolution of anomalies observed in the ISS CDRA.

  9. Data Driven Economic Model Predictive Control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Masoud Kheradmandi

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available This manuscript addresses the problem of data driven model based economic model predictive control (MPC design. To this end, first, a data-driven Lyapunov-based MPC is designed, and shown to be capable of stabilizing a system at an unstable equilibrium point. The data driven Lyapunov-based MPC utilizes a linear time invariant (LTI model cognizant of the fact that the training data, owing to the unstable nature of the equilibrium point, has to be obtained from closed-loop operation or experiments. Simulation results are first presented demonstrating closed-loop stability under the proposed data-driven Lyapunov-based MPC. The underlying data-driven model is then utilized as the basis to design an economic MPC. The economic improvements yielded by the proposed method are illustrated through simulations on a nonlinear chemical process system example.

  10. Orange and reddish-orange light emitting phosphors: Sm{sup 3+} and Sm{sup 3+}/Eu{sup 3+} doped zinc phosphate glasses

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Meza-Rocha, A.N., E-mail: ameza@fis.cinvestav.mx [Departamento de Física, Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana-Iztapalapa, P.O. Box 55-534, 09340 México D.F., México (Mexico); Speghini, A. [Dipartimento di Biotecnologie, Universita di Verona and INSTM, UdR Verona, Strada Le Grazie 15, I-37314 Verona (Italy); IFAC CNR, Nello Carrara Institute of Applied Physics, MDF Lab, I-50019 Sesto Fiorentino, FI (Italy); Bettinelli, M. [Dipartimento di Biotecnologie, Universita di Verona and INSTM, UdR Verona, Strada Le Grazie 15, I-37314 Verona (Italy); Caldiño, U. [Departamento de Física, Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana-Iztapalapa, P.O. Box 55-534, 09340 México D.F., México (Mexico)

    2015-11-15

    A spectroscopy study of Sm{sup 3+} and Sm{sup 3+}/Eu{sup 3+} doped zinc phosphate glasses is performed through photoluminescence spectra and decay time profile measurements. Under Sm{sup 3+} excitation at 344 nm, the Sm{sup 3+} singly doped glass shows an orange global emission with x=0.579 and y=0.414 CIE1931 chromaticity coordinates, whereas the Sm{sup 3+}/Eu{sup 3+} co-doped sample exhibits orange overall emissions (x=0.581 and y=0.398, and x=0.595 and y=0.387) and reddish-orange overall emission (x=0.634 and y=0.355) upon excitations at 344, 360 and 393 nm, respectively. Such luminescence from the co-doped sample is originated by the simultaneous emission of Sm{sup 3+} and Eu{sup 3+}. Under Sm{sup 3+} excitation at 344 and 360 nm, the Eu{sup 3+} emission is sensitized and enhanced by Sm{sup 3+} through a non-radiative energy transfer process. The non-radiative nature was inferred from the shortening of the Sm{sup 3+} lifetime observed in the Sm{sup 3+}/Eu{sup 3+} co-doped sample. An analysis of the Sm{sup 3+} emission decay time profiles using the Inokuti–Hirayama model suggests that an electric quadrupole–quadrupole interaction into Sm–Eu clusters might dominate the energy transfer process, with an efficiency of 0.17. - Highlights: • Zinc phosphate glasses are optically activated with Sm{sup 3+}/Eu{sup 3+} (ZPOSmEu). • Non-radiative energy transfer Sm{sup 3+}→Eu{sup 3+} takes place in ZPOSmEu. • ZPOSmEu overall emission can be modulated with the excitation wavelength. • ZPOSmEu might be useful as orange/reddish-orange phosphor for UV-white LEDs.

  11. Plant control using embedded predictive models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Godbole, S.S.; Gabler, W.E.; Eschbach, S.L.

    1990-01-01

    B and W recently undertook the design of an advanced light water reactor control system. A concept new to nuclear steam system (NSS) control was developed. The concept, which is called the Predictor-Corrector, uses mathematical models of portions of the controlled NSS to calculate, at various levels within the system, demand and control element position signals necessary to satisfy electrical demand. The models give the control system the ability to reduce overcooling and undercooling of the reactor coolant system during transients and upsets. Two types of mathematical models were developed for use in designing and testing the control system. One model was a conventional, comprehensive NSS model that responds to control system outputs and calculates the resultant changes in plant variables that are then used as inputs to the control system. Two other models, embedded in the control system, were less conventional, inverse models. These models accept as inputs plant variables, equipment states, and demand signals and predict plant operating conditions and control element states that will satisfy the demands. This paper reports preliminary results of closed-loop Reactor Coolant (RC) pump trip and normal load reduction testing of the advanced concept. Results of additional transient testing, and of open and closed loop stability analyses will be reported as they are available

  12. Ground Motion Prediction Models for Caucasus Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jorjiashvili, Nato; Godoladze, Tea; Tvaradze, Nino; Tumanova, Nino

    2016-04-01

    Ground motion prediction models (GMPMs) relate ground motion intensity measures to variables describing earthquake source, path, and site effects. Estimation of expected ground motion is a fundamental earthquake hazard assessment. The most commonly used parameter for attenuation relation is peak ground acceleration or spectral acceleration because this parameter gives useful information for Seismic Hazard Assessment. Since 2003 development of Georgian Digital Seismic Network has started. In this study new GMP models are obtained based on new data from Georgian seismic network and also from neighboring countries. Estimation of models is obtained by classical, statistical way, regression analysis. In this study site ground conditions are additionally considered because the same earthquake recorded at the same distance may cause different damage according to ground conditions. Empirical ground-motion prediction models (GMPMs) require adjustment to make them appropriate for site-specific scenarios. However, the process of making such adjustments remains a challenge. This work presents a holistic framework for the development of a peak ground acceleration (PGA) or spectral acceleration (SA) GMPE that is easily adjustable to different seismological conditions and does not suffer from the practical problems associated with adjustments in the response spectral domain.

  13. Modeling and Prediction of Krueger Device Noise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Yueping; Burley, Casey L.; Thomas, Russell H.

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents the development of a noise prediction model for aircraft Krueger flap devices that are considered as alternatives to leading edge slotted slats. The prediction model decomposes the total Krueger noise into four components, generated by the unsteady flows, respectively, in the cove under the pressure side surface of the Krueger, in the gap between the Krueger trailing edge and the main wing, around the brackets supporting the Krueger device, and around the cavity on the lower side of the main wing. For each noise component, the modeling follows a physics-based approach that aims at capturing the dominant noise-generating features in the flow and developing correlations between the noise and the flow parameters that control the noise generation processes. The far field noise is modeled using each of the four noise component's respective spectral functions, far field directivities, Mach number dependencies, component amplitudes, and other parametric trends. Preliminary validations are carried out by using small scale experimental data, and two applications are discussed; one for conventional aircraft and the other for advanced configurations. The former focuses on the parametric trends of Krueger noise on design parameters, while the latter reveals its importance in relation to other airframe noise components.

  14. Prediction of Chemical Function: Model Development and ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    The United States Environmental Protection Agency’s Exposure Forecaster (ExpoCast) project is developing both statistical and mechanism-based computational models for predicting exposures to thousands of chemicals, including those in consumer products. The high-throughput (HT) screening-level exposures developed under ExpoCast can be combined with HT screening (HTS) bioactivity data for the risk-based prioritization of chemicals for further evaluation. The functional role (e.g. solvent, plasticizer, fragrance) that a chemical performs can drive both the types of products in which it is found and the concentration in which it is present and therefore impacting exposure potential. However, critical chemical use information (including functional role) is lacking for the majority of commercial chemicals for which exposure estimates are needed. A suite of machine-learning based models for classifying chemicals in terms of their likely functional roles in products based on structure were developed. This effort required collection, curation, and harmonization of publically-available data sources of chemical functional use information from government and industry bodies. Physicochemical and structure descriptor data were generated for chemicals with function data. Machine-learning classifier models for function were then built in a cross-validated manner from the descriptor/function data using the method of random forests. The models were applied to: 1) predict chemi

  15. Evaluating Predictive Models of Software Quality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ciaschini, V.; Canaparo, M.; Ronchieri, E.; Salomoni, D.

    2014-06-01

    Applications from High Energy Physics scientific community are constantly growing and implemented by a large number of developers. This implies a strong churn on the code and an associated risk of faults, which is unavoidable as long as the software undergoes active evolution. However, the necessities of production systems run counter to this. Stability and predictability are of paramount importance; in addition, a short turn-around time for the defect discovery-correction-deployment cycle is required. A way to reconcile these opposite foci is to use a software quality model to obtain an approximation of the risk before releasing a program to only deliver software with a risk lower than an agreed threshold. In this article we evaluated two quality predictive models to identify the operational risk and the quality of some software products. We applied these models to the development history of several EMI packages with intent to discover the risk factor of each product and compare it with its real history. We attempted to determine if the models reasonably maps reality for the applications under evaluation, and finally we concluded suggesting directions for further studies.

  16. Predicting FLDs Using a Multiscale Modeling Scheme

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Z.; Loy, C.; Wang, E.; Hegadekatte, V.

    2017-09-01

    The measurement of a single forming limit diagram (FLD) requires significant resources and is time consuming. We have developed a multiscale modeling scheme to predict FLDs using a combination of limited laboratory testing, crystal plasticity (VPSC) modeling, and dual sequential-stage finite element (ABAQUS/Explicit) modeling with the Marciniak-Kuczynski (M-K) criterion to determine the limit strain. We have established a means to work around existing limitations in ABAQUS/Explicit by using an anisotropic yield locus (e.g., BBC2008) in combination with the M-K criterion. We further apply a VPSC model to reduce the number of laboratory tests required to characterize the anisotropic yield locus. In the present work, we show that the predicted FLD is in excellent agreement with the measured FLD for AA5182 in the O temper. Instead of 13 different tests as for a traditional FLD determination within Novelis, our technique uses just four measurements: tensile properties in three orientations; plane strain tension; biaxial bulge; and the sheet crystallographic texture. The turnaround time is consequently far less than for the traditional laboratory measurement of the FLD.

  17. PREDICTION MODELS OF GRAIN YIELD AND CHARACTERIZATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Narciso Ysac Avila Serrano

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available With the objective to characterize the grain yield of five cowpea cultivars and to find linear regression models to predict it, a study was developed in La Paz, Baja California Sur, Mexico. A complete randomized blocks design was used. Simple and multivariate analyses of variance were carried out using the canonical variables to characterize the cultivars. The variables cluster per plant, pods per plant, pods per cluster, seeds weight per plant, seeds hectoliter weight, 100-seed weight, seeds length, seeds wide, seeds thickness, pods length, pods wide, pods weight, seeds per pods, and seeds weight per pods, showed significant differences (P≤ 0.05 among cultivars. Paceño and IT90K-277-2 cultivars showed the higher seeds weight per plant. The linear regression models showed correlation coefficients ≥0.92. In these models, the seeds weight per plant, pods per cluster, pods per plant, cluster per plant and pods length showed significant correlations (P≤ 0.05. In conclusion, the results showed that grain yield differ among cultivars and for its estimation, the prediction models showed determination coefficients highly dependable.

  18. Evaluating predictive models of software quality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ciaschini, V; Canaparo, M; Ronchieri, E; Salomoni, D

    2014-01-01

    Applications from High Energy Physics scientific community are constantly growing and implemented by a large number of developers. This implies a strong churn on the code and an associated risk of faults, which is unavoidable as long as the software undergoes active evolution. However, the necessities of production systems run counter to this. Stability and predictability are of paramount importance; in addition, a short turn-around time for the defect discovery-correction-deployment cycle is required. A way to reconcile these opposite foci is to use a software quality model to obtain an approximation of the risk before releasing a program to only deliver software with a risk lower than an agreed threshold. In this article we evaluated two quality predictive models to identify the operational risk and the quality of some software products. We applied these models to the development history of several EMI packages with intent to discover the risk factor of each product and compare it with its real history. We attempted to determine if the models reasonably maps reality for the applications under evaluation, and finally we concluded suggesting directions for further studies.

  19. Gamma-Ray Pulsars Models and Predictions

    CERN Document Server

    Harding, A K

    2001-01-01

    Pulsed emission from gamma-ray pulsars originates inside the magnetosphere, from radiation by charged particles accelerated near the magnetic poles or in the outer gaps. In polar cap models, the high energy spectrum is cut off by magnetic pair production above an energy that is dependent on the local magnetic field strength. While most young pulsars with surface fields in the range B = 10^{12} - 10^{13} G are expected to have high energy cutoffs around several GeV, the gamma-ray spectra of old pulsars having lower surface fields may extend to 50 GeV. Although the gamma-ray emission of older pulsars is weaker, detecting pulsed emission at high energies from nearby sources would be an important confirmation of polar cap models. Outer gap models predict more gradual high-energy turnovers at around 10 GeV, but also predict an inverse Compton component extending to TeV energies. Detection of pulsed TeV emission, which would not survive attenuation at the polar caps, is thus an important test of outer gap models. N...

  20. Artificial Neural Network Model for Predicting Compressive

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Salim T. Yousif

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available   Compressive strength of concrete is a commonly used criterion in evaluating concrete. Although testing of the compressive strength of concrete specimens is done routinely, it is performed on the 28th day after concrete placement. Therefore, strength estimation of concrete at early time is highly desirable. This study presents the effort in applying neural network-based system identification techniques to predict the compressive strength of concrete based on concrete mix proportions, maximum aggregate size (MAS, and slump of fresh concrete. Back-propagation neural networks model is successively developed, trained, and tested using actual data sets of concrete mix proportions gathered from literature.    The test of the model by un-used data within the range of input parameters shows that the maximum absolute error for model is about 20% and 88% of the output results has absolute errors less than 10%. The parametric study shows that water/cement ratio (w/c is the most significant factor  affecting the output of the model.     The results showed that neural networks has strong potential as a feasible tool for predicting compressive strength of concrete.

  1. Clinical Predictive Modeling Development and Deployment through FHIR Web Services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khalilia, Mohammed; Choi, Myung; Henderson, Amelia; Iyengar, Sneha; Braunstein, Mark; Sun, Jimeng

    2015-01-01

    Clinical predictive modeling involves two challenging tasks: model development and model deployment. In this paper we demonstrate a software architecture for developing and deploying clinical predictive models using web services via the Health Level 7 (HL7) Fast Healthcare Interoperability Resources (FHIR) standard. The services enable model development using electronic health records (EHRs) stored in OMOP CDM databases and model deployment for scoring individual patients through FHIR resources. The MIMIC2 ICU dataset and a synthetic outpatient dataset were transformed into OMOP CDM databases for predictive model development. The resulting predictive models are deployed as FHIR resources, which receive requests of patient information, perform prediction against the deployed predictive model and respond with prediction scores. To assess the practicality of this approach we evaluated the response and prediction time of the FHIR modeling web services. We found the system to be reasonably fast with one second total response time per patient prediction.

  2. An analytical model for climatic predictions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Njau, E.C.

    1990-12-01

    A climatic model based upon analytical expressions is presented. This model is capable of making long-range predictions of heat energy variations on regional or global scales. These variations can then be transformed into corresponding variations of some other key climatic parameters since weather and climatic changes are basically driven by differential heating and cooling around the earth. On the basis of the mathematical expressions upon which the model is based, it is shown that the global heat energy structure (and hence the associated climatic system) are characterized by zonally as well as latitudinally propagating fluctuations at frequencies downward of 0.5 day -1 . We have calculated the propagation speeds for those particular frequencies that are well documented in the literature. The calculated speeds are in excellent agreement with the measured speeds. (author). 13 refs

  3. An Anisotropic Hardening Model for Springback Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeng, Danielle; Xia, Z. Cedric

    2005-08-01

    As more Advanced High-Strength Steels (AHSS) are heavily used for automotive body structures and closures panels, accurate springback prediction for these components becomes more challenging because of their rapid hardening characteristics and ability to sustain even higher stresses. In this paper, a modified Mroz hardening model is proposed to capture realistic Bauschinger effect at reverse loading, such as when material passes through die radii or drawbead during sheet metal forming process. This model accounts for material anisotropic yield surface and nonlinear isotropic/kinematic hardening behavior. Material tension/compression test data are used to accurately represent Bauschinger effect. The effectiveness of the model is demonstrated by comparison of numerical and experimental springback results for a DP600 straight U-channel test.

  4. An Anisotropic Hardening Model for Springback Prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zeng, Danielle; Xia, Z. Cedric

    2005-01-01

    As more Advanced High-Strength Steels (AHSS) are heavily used for automotive body structures and closures panels, accurate springback prediction for these components becomes more challenging because of their rapid hardening characteristics and ability to sustain even higher stresses. In this paper, a modified Mroz hardening model is proposed to capture realistic Bauschinger effect at reverse loading, such as when material passes through die radii or drawbead during sheet metal forming process. This model accounts for material anisotropic yield surface and nonlinear isotropic/kinematic hardening behavior. Material tension/compression test data are used to accurately represent Bauschinger effect. The effectiveness of the model is demonstrated by comparison of numerical and experimental springback results for a DP600 straight U-channel test

  5. Web tools for predictive toxicology model building.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeliazkova, Nina

    2012-07-01

    The development and use of web tools in chemistry has accumulated more than 15 years of history already. Powered by the advances in the Internet technologies, the current generation of web systems are starting to expand into areas, traditional for desktop applications. The web platforms integrate data storage, cheminformatics and data analysis tools. The ease of use and the collaborative potential of the web is compelling, despite the challenges. The topic of this review is a set of recently published web tools that facilitate predictive toxicology model building. The focus is on software platforms, offering web access to chemical structure-based methods, although some of the frameworks could also provide bioinformatics or hybrid data analysis functionalities. A number of historical and current developments are cited. In order to provide comparable assessment, the following characteristics are considered: support for workflows, descriptor calculations, visualization, modeling algorithms, data management and data sharing capabilities, availability of GUI or programmatic access and implementation details. The success of the Web is largely due to its highly decentralized, yet sufficiently interoperable model for information access. The expected future convergence between cheminformatics and bioinformatics databases provides new challenges toward management and analysis of large data sets. The web tools in predictive toxicology will likely continue to evolve toward the right mix of flexibility, performance, scalability, interoperability, sets of unique features offered, friendly user interfaces, programmatic access for advanced users, platform independence, results reproducibility, curation and crowdsourcing utilities, collaborative sharing and secure access.

  6. Predictions of models for environmental radiological assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peres, Sueli da Silva; Lauria, Dejanira da Costa; Mahler, Claudio Fernando

    2011-01-01

    In the field of environmental impact assessment, models are used for estimating source term, environmental dispersion and transfer of radionuclides, exposure pathway, radiation dose and the risk for human beings Although it is recognized that the specific information of local data are important to improve the quality of the dose assessment results, in fact obtaining it can be very difficult and expensive. Sources of uncertainties are numerous, among which we can cite: the subjectivity of modelers, exposure scenarios and pathways, used codes and general parameters. The various models available utilize different mathematical approaches with different complexities that can result in different predictions. Thus, for the same inputs different models can produce very different outputs. This paper presents briefly the main advances in the field of environmental radiological assessment that aim to improve the reliability of the models used in the assessment of environmental radiological impact. The intercomparison exercise of model supplied incompatible results for 137 Cs and 60 Co, enhancing the need for developing reference methodologies for environmental radiological assessment that allow to confront dose estimations in a common comparison base. The results of the intercomparison exercise are present briefly. (author)

  7. A Predictive Maintenance Model for Railway Tracks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Li, Rui; Wen, Min; Salling, Kim Bang

    2015-01-01

    presents a mathematical model based on Mixed Integer Programming (MIP) which is designed to optimize the predictive railway tamping activities for ballasted track for the time horizon up to four years. The objective function is setup to minimize the actual costs for the tamping machine (measured by time......). Five technical and economic aspects are taken into account to schedule tamping: (1) track degradation of the standard deviation of the longitudinal level over time; (2) track geometrical alignment; (3) track quality thresholds based on the train speed limits; (4) the dependency of the track quality...

  8. Predictive Capability Maturity Model for computational modeling and simulation.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oberkampf, William Louis; Trucano, Timothy Guy; Pilch, Martin M.

    2007-10-01

    The Predictive Capability Maturity Model (PCMM) is a new model that can be used to assess the level of maturity of computational modeling and simulation (M&S) efforts. The development of the model is based on both the authors experience and their analysis of similar investigations in the past. The perspective taken in this report is one of judging the usefulness of a predictive capability that relies on the numerical solution to partial differential equations to better inform and improve decision making. The review of past investigations, such as the Software Engineering Institute's Capability Maturity Model Integration and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration and Department of Defense Technology Readiness Levels, indicates that a more restricted, more interpretable method is needed to assess the maturity of an M&S effort. The PCMM addresses six contributing elements to M&S: (1) representation and geometric fidelity, (2) physics and material model fidelity, (3) code verification, (4) solution verification, (5) model validation, and (6) uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis. For each of these elements, attributes are identified that characterize four increasing levels of maturity. Importantly, the PCMM is a structured method for assessing the maturity of an M&S effort that is directed toward an engineering application of interest. The PCMM does not assess whether the M&S effort, the accuracy of the predictions, or the performance of the engineering system satisfies or does not satisfy specified application requirements.

  9. Effective modelling for predictive analytics in data science ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Effective modelling for predictive analytics in data science. ... the nearabsence of empirical or factual predictive analytics in the mainstream research going on ... Keywords: Predictive Analytics, Big Data, Business Intelligence, Project Planning.

  10. Radiation damage in SmS, SmSsub(1-x)Psub(x) and SmB6

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morillo, J.; Bordier, G.; de Novion, C.H.; Senateur, J.P.; Jun, J.

    1984-08-01

    Large conductivity increases under 21 K electron or neutron irradiations are observed in SmS and SmSsub(1-x)Psub(x). It is shown that they are related to Sm defects. A possible mechanism is 4f electron delocalization around radiation defects. In SmB 6 , the low temperature resistivity increase desappears under 21 K irradiation. The thermal stability of the defects is also investigated up to room temperature

  11. Standard Missile-6 (SM-6)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-12-01

    attack or Anti-Ship Cruise Missiles in flight. The SM-6 ERAM program is an evolutionary, capabilities based acquisition program that will use spiral ...Prior SAR Total O&S Estimates - Dec 2014 SAR 460.3 Programmatic/Planning Factors 0.0 Cost Estimating Methodology 0.0 Cost Data Update 0.0 Labor Rate

  12. Combining GPS measurements and IRI model predictions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hernandez-Pajares, M.; Juan, J.M.; Sanz, J.; Bilitza, D.

    2002-01-01

    The free electrons distributed in the ionosphere (between one hundred and thousands of km in height) produce a frequency-dependent effect on Global Positioning System (GPS) signals: a delay in the pseudo-orange and an advance in the carrier phase. These effects are proportional to the columnar electron density between the satellite and receiver, i.e. the integrated electron density along the ray path. Global ionospheric TEC (total electron content) maps can be obtained with GPS data from a network of ground IGS (international GPS service) reference stations with an accuracy of few TEC units. The comparison with the TOPEX TEC, mainly measured over the oceans far from the IGS stations, shows a mean bias and standard deviation of about 2 and 5 TECUs respectively. The discrepancies between the STEC predictions and the observed values show an RMS typically below 5 TECUs (which also includes the alignment code noise). he existence of a growing database 2-hourly global TEC maps and with resolution of 5x2.5 degrees in longitude and latitude can be used to improve the IRI prediction capability of the TEC. When the IRI predictions and the GPS estimations are compared for a three month period around the Solar Maximum, they are in good agreement for middle latitudes. An over-determination of IRI TEC has been found at the extreme latitudes, the IRI predictions being, typically two times higher than the GPS estimations. Finally, local fits of the IRI model can be done by tuning the SSN from STEC GPS observations

  13. Effect on Prediction when Modeling Covariates in Bayesian Nonparametric Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cruz-Marcelo, Alejandro; Rosner, Gary L; Müller, Peter; Stewart, Clinton F

    2013-04-01

    In biomedical research, it is often of interest to characterize biologic processes giving rise to observations and to make predictions of future observations. Bayesian nonparametric methods provide a means for carrying out Bayesian inference making as few assumptions about restrictive parametric models as possible. There are several proposals in the literature for extending Bayesian nonparametric models to include dependence on covariates. Limited attention, however, has been directed to the following two aspects. In this article, we examine the effect on fitting and predictive performance of incorporating covariates in a class of Bayesian nonparametric models by one of two primary ways: either in the weights or in the locations of a discrete random probability measure. We show that different strategies for incorporating continuous covariates in Bayesian nonparametric models can result in big differences when used for prediction, even though they lead to otherwise similar posterior inferences. When one needs the predictive density, as in optimal design, and this density is a mixture, it is better to make the weights depend on the covariates. We demonstrate these points via a simulated data example and in an application in which one wants to determine the optimal dose of an anticancer drug used in pediatric oncology.

  14. Mathematical models for indoor radon prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Malanca, A.; Pessina, V.; Dallara, G.

    1995-01-01

    It is known that the indoor radon (Rn) concentration can be predicted by means of mathematical models. The simplest model relies on two variables only: the Rn source strength and the air exchange rate. In the Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory (LBL) model several environmental parameters are combined into a complex equation; besides, a correlation between the ventilation rate and the Rn entry rate from the soil is admitted. The measurements were carried out using activated carbon canisters. Seventy-five measurements of Rn concentrations were made inside two rooms placed on the second floor of a building block. One of the rooms had a single-glazed window whereas the other room had a double pane window. During three different experimental protocols, the mean Rn concentration was always higher into the room with a double-glazed window. That behavior can be accounted for by the simplest model. A further set of 450 Rn measurements was collected inside a ground-floor room with a grounding well in it. This trend maybe accounted for by the LBL model

  15. Towards predictive models for transitionally rough surfaces

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abderrahaman-Elena, Nabil; Garcia-Mayoral, Ricardo

    2017-11-01

    We analyze and model the previously presented decomposition for flow variables in DNS of turbulence over transitionally rough surfaces. The flow is decomposed into two contributions: one produced by the overlying turbulence, which has no footprint of the surface texture, and one induced by the roughness, which is essentially the time-averaged flow around the surface obstacles, but modulated in amplitude by the first component. The roughness-induced component closely resembles the laminar steady flow around the roughness elements at the same non-dimensional roughness size. For small - yet transitionally rough - textures, the roughness-free component is essentially the same as over a smooth wall. Based on these findings, we propose predictive models for the onset of the transitionally rough regime. Project supported by the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC).

  16. The QCD/SM Working Group: Summary Report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dobbs, M.

    2004-01-01

    Among the many physics processes at TeV hadron colliders, we look most eagerly for those that display signs of the Higgs boson or of new physics. We do so however amid an abundance of processes that proceed via Standard Model (SM) and in particular Quantum Chromodynamics (QCD) interactions, and that are interesting in their own right. Good knowledge of these processes is required to help us distinguish the new from the known. Their theoretical and experimental study teaches us at the same time more about QCD/SM dynamics, and thereby enables us to further improve such distinctions. This is important because it is becoming increasingly clear that the success of finding and exploring Higgs boson physics or other New Physics at the Tevatron and LHC will depend significantly on precise understanding of QCD/SM effects for many observables. To improve predictions and deepen the study of QCD/SM signals and backgrounds was therefore the ambition for our QCD/SM working group at this Les Houches workshop. Members of the working group made significant progress towards this on a number of fronts. A variety of tools were further developed, from methods to perform higher order perturbative calculations or various types of resummation, to improvements in the modeling of underlying events and parton showers. Furthermore, various precise studies of important specific processes were conducted. A significant part of the activities in Les Houches revolved around Monte Carlo simulation of collision events. A number of contributions in this report reflect the progress made in this area. At present a large number of Monte Carlo programs exist, each written with a different purpose and employing different techniques. Discussions in Les Houches revealed the need for an accessible primer on Monte Carlo programs, featuring a listing of various codes, each with a short description, but also providing a low-level explanation of the underlying methods. This primer has now been compiled and a

  17. Resource-estimation models and predicted discovery

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hill, G.W.

    1982-01-01

    Resources have been estimated by predictive extrapolation from past discovery experience, by analogy with better explored regions, or by inference from evidence of depletion of targets for exploration. Changes in technology and new insights into geological mechanisms have occurred sufficiently often in the long run to form part of the pattern of mature discovery experience. The criterion, that a meaningful resource estimate needs an objective measure of its precision or degree of uncertainty, excludes 'estimates' based solely on expert opinion. This is illustrated by development of error measures for several persuasive models of discovery and production of oil and gas in USA, both annually and in terms of increasing exploration effort. Appropriate generalizations of the models resolve many points of controversy. This is illustrated using two USA data sets describing discovery of oil and of U 3 O 8 ; the latter set highlights an inadequacy of available official data. Review of the oil-discovery data set provides a warrant for adjusting the time-series prediction to a higher resource figure for USA petroleum. (author)

  18. Prediction of pipeline corrosion rate based on grey Markov models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen Yonghong; Zhang Dafa; Peng Guichu; Wang Yuemin

    2009-01-01

    Based on the model that combined by grey model and Markov model, the prediction of corrosion rate of nuclear power pipeline was studied. Works were done to improve the grey model, and the optimization unbiased grey model was obtained. This new model was used to predict the tendency of corrosion rate, and the Markov model was used to predict the residual errors. In order to improve the prediction precision, rolling operation method was used in these prediction processes. The results indicate that the improvement to the grey model is effective and the prediction precision of the new model combined by the optimization unbiased grey model and Markov model is better, and the use of rolling operation method may improve the prediction precision further. (authors)

  19. Cross-species prophylactic efficacy of Sm-p80-based vaccine and intracellular localization of Sm-p80/Sm-p80 ortholog proteins during development in Schistosoma mansoni, Schistosoma japonicum, and Schistosoma haematobium.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molehin, Adebayo J; Sennoune, Souad R; Zhang, Weidong; Rojo, Juan U; Siddiqui, Arif J; Herrera, Karlie A; Johnson, Laura; Sudduth, Justin; May, Jordan; Siddiqui, Afzal A

    2017-11-01

    Schistosomiasis remains a major global health problem. Despite large-scale schistosomiasis control efforts, clear limitations such as possible emergence of drug resistance and reinfection rates highlight the need for an effective schistosomiasis vaccine. Schistosoma mansoni large subunit of calpain (Sm-p80)-based vaccine formulations have shown remarkable efficacy in protecting against S. mansoni challenge infections in mice and baboons. In this study, we evaluated the cross-species protective efficacy of Sm-p80 vaccine against S. japonicum and S. haematobium challenge infections in rodent models. We also elucidated the expression of Sm-p80 and Sm-p80 ortholog proteins in different developmental stages of S. mansoni, S. haematobium, and S. japonicum. Immunization with Sm-p80 vaccine reduced worm burden by 46.75% against S. japonicum challenge infection in mice. DNA prime/protein boost (1 + 1 dose administered on a single day) resulted in 26.95% reduction in worm burden in S. haematobium-hamster infection/challenge model. A balanced Th1 (IFN-γ, TNF-α, IL-2, and IL-12) and Th2 (IL-4, IgG1) type of responses were observed following vaccination in both S. japonicum and S. haematobium challenge trials and these are associated with the prophylactic efficacy of Sm-p80 vaccine. Immunohistochemistry demonstrated that Sm-p80/Sm-p80 ortholog proteins are expressed in different life cycle stages of the three major human species of schistosomes studied. The data presented in this study reinforce the potential of Sm-p80-based vaccine for both hepatic/intestinal and urogenital schistosomiasis occurring in different geographical areas of the world. Differential expression of Sm-p80/Sm-p80 protein orthologs in different life cycle makes this vaccine potentially useful in targeting different levels of infection, disease, and transmission.

  20. An Operational Model for the Prediction of Jet Blast

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-09

    This paper presents an operational model for the prediction of jet blast. The model was : developed based upon three modules including a jet exhaust model, jet centerline decay : model and aircraft motion model. The final analysis was compared with d...

  1. Data driven propulsion system weight prediction model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerth, Richard J.

    1994-10-01

    The objective of the research was to develop a method to predict the weight of paper engines, i.e., engines that are in the early stages of development. The impetus for the project was the Single Stage To Orbit (SSTO) project, where engineers need to evaluate alternative engine designs. Since the SSTO is a performance driven project the performance models for alternative designs were well understood. The next tradeoff is weight. Since it is known that engine weight varies with thrust levels, a model is required that would allow discrimination between engines that produce the same thrust. Above all, the model had to be rooted in data with assumptions that could be justified based on the data. The general approach was to collect data on as many existing engines as possible and build a statistical model of the engines weight as a function of various component performance parameters. This was considered a reasonable level to begin the project because the data would be readily available, and it would be at the level of most paper engines, prior to detailed component design.

  2. Predictive modeling of emergency cesarean delivery.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Campillo-Artero

    Full Text Available To increase discriminatory accuracy (DA for emergency cesarean sections (ECSs.We prospectively collected data on and studied all 6,157 births occurring in 2014 at four public hospitals located in three different autonomous communities of Spain. To identify risk factors (RFs for ECS, we used likelihood ratios and logistic regression, fitted a classification tree (CTREE, and analyzed a random forest model (RFM. We used the areas under the receiver-operating-characteristic (ROC curves (AUCs to assess their DA.The magnitude of the LR+ for all putative individual RFs and ORs in the logistic regression models was low to moderate. Except for parity, all putative RFs were positively associated with ECS, including hospital fixed-effects and night-shift delivery. The DA of all logistic models ranged from 0.74 to 0.81. The most relevant RFs (pH, induction, and previous C-section in the CTREEs showed the highest ORs in the logistic models. The DA of the RFM and its most relevant interaction terms was even higher (AUC = 0.94; 95% CI: 0.93-0.95.Putative fetal, maternal, and contextual RFs alone fail to achieve reasonable DA for ECS. It is the combination of these RFs and the interactions between them at each hospital that make it possible to improve the DA for the type of delivery and tailor interventions through prediction to improve the appropriateness of ECS indications.

  3. Model Predictive Control based on Finite Impulse Response Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Prasath, Guru; Jørgensen, John Bagterp

    2008-01-01

    We develop a regularized l2 finite impulse response (FIR) predictive controller with input and input-rate constraints. Feedback is based on a simple constant output disturbance filter. The performance of the predictive controller in the face of plant-model mismatch is investigated by simulations...... and related to the uncertainty of the impulse response coefficients. The simulations can be used to benchmark l2 MPC against FIR based robust MPC as well as to estimate the maximum performance improvements by robust MPC....

  4. SM+Top at the LHC

    CERN Document Server

    McCarthy, Tom; The ATLAS collaboration

    2018-01-01

    This overview talk highlights some of the latest results by the ATLAS, CMS & LHCb collaborations. A particular focus is placed on some of the rarer Standard Model processes which have recently become accessible with the large set of proton-proton collision data collected during the successful second run of the LHC at $\\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV. Searches and cross-section measurements involving top quark signatures are given prominence, as well as those targeting highly boosted objects such as SM W/Z and Higgs bosons, and which consequently feature large-R jets and substructure techniques.

  5. The neutron EDM in the SM: a review

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dar, Shahida

    2000-08-01

    We review the status of the electric dipole moment (EDM) of neutron in the Standard Model (SM). The contributions of the strong and electroweak interactions are discussed separately. In each case the structure of Lagrangian and the sources of CP violation are specified, and subsequently calculational details are given. These two contributions to the neutron EDM exist in any extension of the SM including supersymmetry, two-doublet models as well as models with more than three generations of fermions. We briefly discuss the status of the neutron EDM in such extensions and give the relevant literature. (author)

  6. Småhuse: Indretning og funktion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Ernst Jan de Place; Sigbrand, Lone; Frandsen, Anne Kathrine

    Denne anvisning omhandler generelle krav og anbefalinger til indretning og funktion af nybyggede småhuse i henhold til bestemmelserne i Bygningsreglement 2010 (BR10). Småhuse - Indretning og funktionSmåhuse omfatter fritliggende og sammenbyggede enfamiliehuse med lodret lejlighedsskel i indtil...

  7. Methodology for Designing Models Predicting Success of Infertility Treatment

    OpenAIRE

    Alireza Zarinara; Mohammad Mahdi Akhondi; Hojjat Zeraati; Koorsh Kamali; Kazem Mohammad

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Background: The prediction models for infertility treatment success have presented since 25 years ago. There are scientific principles for designing and applying the prediction models that is also used to predict the success rate of infertility treatment. The purpose of this study is to provide basic principles for designing the model to predic infertility treatment success. Materials and Methods: In this paper, the principles for developing predictive models are explained and...

  8. Finite Unification: Theory, Models and Predictions

    CERN Document Server

    Heinemeyer, S; Zoupanos, G

    2011-01-01

    All-loop Finite Unified Theories (FUTs) are very interesting N=1 supersymmetric Grand Unified Theories (GUTs) realising an old field theory dream, and moreover have a remarkable predictive power due to the required reduction of couplings. The reduction of the dimensionless couplings in N=1 GUTs is achieved by searching for renormalization group invariant (RGI) relations among them holding beyond the unification scale. Finiteness results from the fact that there exist RGI relations among dimensional couplings that guarantee the vanishing of all beta-functions in certain N=1 GUTs even to all orders. Furthermore developments in the soft supersymmetry breaking sector of N=1 GUTs and FUTs lead to exact RGI relations, i.e. reduction of couplings, in this dimensionful sector of the theory, too. Based on the above theoretical framework phenomenologically consistent FUTs have been constructed. Here we review FUT models based on the SU(5) and SU(3)^3 gauge groups and their predictions. Of particular interest is the Hig...

  9. Revised predictive equations for salt intrusion modelling in estuaries

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gisen, J.I.A.; Savenije, H.H.G.; Nijzink, R.C.

    2015-01-01

    For one-dimensional salt intrusion models to be predictive, we need predictive equations to link model parameters to observable hydraulic and geometric variables. The one-dimensional model of Savenije (1993b) made use of predictive equations for the Van der Burgh coefficient $K$ and the dispersion

  10. Neutrino nucleosynthesis in supernovae: Shell model predictions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haxton, W.C.

    1989-01-01

    Almost all of the 3 · 10 53 ergs liberated in a core collapse supernova is radiated as neutrinos by the cooling neutron star. I will argue that these neutrinos interact with nuclei in the ejected shells of the supernovae to produce new elements. It appears that this nucleosynthesis mechanism is responsible for the galactic abundances of 7 Li, 11 B, 19 F, 138 La, and 180 Ta, and contributes significantly to the abundances of about 15 other light nuclei. I discuss shell model predictions for the charged and neutral current allowed and first-forbidden responses of the parent nuclei, as well as the spallation processes that produce the new elements. 18 refs., 1 fig., 1 tab

  11. Hierarchical Model Predictive Control for Resource Distribution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bendtsen, Jan Dimon; Trangbæk, K; Stoustrup, Jakob

    2010-01-01

    units. The approach is inspired by smart-grid electric power production and consumption systems, where the flexibility of a large number of power producing and/or power consuming units can be exploited in a smart-grid solution. The objective is to accommodate the load variation on the grid, arising......This paper deals with hierarchichal model predictive control (MPC) of distributed systems. A three level hierachical approach is proposed, consisting of a high level MPC controller, a second level of so-called aggregators, controlled by an online MPC-like algorithm, and a lower level of autonomous...... on one hand from varying consumption, on the other hand by natural variations in power production e.g. from wind turbines. The approach presented is based on quadratic optimization and possess the properties of low algorithmic complexity and of scalability. In particular, the proposed design methodology...

  12. Distributed model predictive control made easy

    CERN Document Server

    Negenborn, Rudy

    2014-01-01

    The rapid evolution of computer science, communication, and information technology has enabled the application of control techniques to systems beyond the possibilities of control theory just a decade ago. Critical infrastructures such as electricity, water, traffic and intermodal transport networks are now in the scope of control engineers. The sheer size of such large-scale systems requires the adoption of advanced distributed control approaches. Distributed model predictive control (MPC) is one of the promising control methodologies for control of such systems.   This book provides a state-of-the-art overview of distributed MPC approaches, while at the same time making clear directions of research that deserve more attention. The core and rationale of 35 approaches are carefully explained. Moreover, detailed step-by-step algorithmic descriptions of each approach are provided. These features make the book a comprehensive guide both for those seeking an introduction to distributed MPC as well as for those ...

  13. Model predictive control of a wind turbine modelled in Simpack

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jassmann, U; Matzke, D; Reiter, M; Abel, D; Berroth, J; Schelenz, R; Jacobs, G

    2014-01-01

    Wind turbines (WT) are steadily growing in size to increase their power production, which also causes increasing loads acting on the turbine's components. At the same time large structures, such as the blades and the tower get more flexible. To minimize this impact, the classical control loops for keeping the power production in an optimum state are more and more extended by load alleviation strategies. These additional control loops can be unified by a multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) controller to achieve better balancing of tuning parameters. An example for MIMO control, which has been paid more attention to recently by wind industry, is Model Predictive Control (MPC). In a MPC framework a simplified model of the WT is used to predict its controlled outputs. Based on a user-defined cost function an online optimization calculates the optimal control sequence. Thereby MPC can intrinsically incorporate constraints e.g. of actuators. Turbine models used for calculation within the MPC are typically simplified. For testing and verification usually multi body simulations, such as FAST, BLADED or FLEX5 are used to model system dynamics, but they are still limited in the number of degrees of freedom (DOF). Detailed information about load distribution (e.g. inside the gearbox) cannot be provided by such models. In this paper a Model Predictive Controller is presented and tested in a co-simulation with SlMPACK, a multi body system (MBS) simulation framework used for detailed load analysis. The analysis are performed on the basis of the IME6.0 MBS WT model, described in this paper. It is based on the rotor of the NREL 5MW WT and consists of a detailed representation of the drive train. This takes into account a flexible main shaft and its main bearings with a planetary gearbox, where all components are modelled flexible, as well as a supporting flexible main frame. The wind loads are simulated using the NREL AERODYN v13 code which has been implemented as a routine

  14. Model predictive control of a wind turbine modelled in Simpack

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jassmann, U.; Berroth, J.; Matzke, D.; Schelenz, R.; Reiter, M.; Jacobs, G.; Abel, D.

    2014-06-01

    Wind turbines (WT) are steadily growing in size to increase their power production, which also causes increasing loads acting on the turbine's components. At the same time large structures, such as the blades and the tower get more flexible. To minimize this impact, the classical control loops for keeping the power production in an optimum state are more and more extended by load alleviation strategies. These additional control loops can be unified by a multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) controller to achieve better balancing of tuning parameters. An example for MIMO control, which has been paid more attention to recently by wind industry, is Model Predictive Control (MPC). In a MPC framework a simplified model of the WT is used to predict its controlled outputs. Based on a user-defined cost function an online optimization calculates the optimal control sequence. Thereby MPC can intrinsically incorporate constraints e.g. of actuators. Turbine models used for calculation within the MPC are typically simplified. For testing and verification usually multi body simulations, such as FAST, BLADED or FLEX5 are used to model system dynamics, but they are still limited in the number of degrees of freedom (DOF). Detailed information about load distribution (e.g. inside the gearbox) cannot be provided by such models. In this paper a Model Predictive Controller is presented and tested in a co-simulation with SlMPACK, a multi body system (MBS) simulation framework used for detailed load analysis. The analysis are performed on the basis of the IME6.0 MBS WT model, described in this paper. It is based on the rotor of the NREL 5MW WT and consists of a detailed representation of the drive train. This takes into account a flexible main shaft and its main bearings with a planetary gearbox, where all components are modelled flexible, as well as a supporting flexible main frame. The wind loads are simulated using the NREL AERODYN v13 code which has been implemented as a routine to

  15. Poisson Mixture Regression Models for Heart Disease Prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mufudza, Chipo; Erol, Hamza

    2016-01-01

    Early heart disease control can be achieved by high disease prediction and diagnosis efficiency. This paper focuses on the use of model based clustering techniques to predict and diagnose heart disease via Poisson mixture regression models. Analysis and application of Poisson mixture regression models is here addressed under two different classes: standard and concomitant variable mixture regression models. Results show that a two-component concomitant variable Poisson mixture regression model predicts heart disease better than both the standard Poisson mixture regression model and the ordinary general linear Poisson regression model due to its low Bayesian Information Criteria value. Furthermore, a Zero Inflated Poisson Mixture Regression model turned out to be the best model for heart prediction over all models as it both clusters individuals into high or low risk category and predicts rate to heart disease componentwise given clusters available. It is deduced that heart disease prediction can be effectively done by identifying the major risks componentwise using Poisson mixture regression model.

  16. The glomerular parietal epithelial cell's responses are influenced by SM22 alpha levels.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naito, Shokichi; Pippin, Jeffrey W; Shankland, Stuart J

    2014-11-06

    Studies have shown in several diseases initially affecting podocytes, that the neighboring glomerular parietal epithelial cells (PECs) are secondarily involved. The PEC response might be reparative under certain circumstances, yet injurious under others. The factors governing these are not well understood. We have shown that SM22α, an actin-binding protein considered a marker of smooth muscle differentiation, is upregulated in podocytes and PECs in several models of podocyte disease. However, the impact of SM22α levels on PECs is not known. Experimental glomerular disease, characterized by primary podocyte injury, was induced in aged-matched SM22α+/+ and SM22α-/-mice by intraperitoneal injection of sheep anti-rabbit glomeruli antibody. Immunostaining methods were employed on days 7 and 14 of disease. The number of PEC transition cells, defined as cells co-expressing a PEC protein (PAX2) and podocyte protein (Synaptopodin) was higher in diseased SM22α-/-mice compared with SM22α+/+mice. WT1 staining along Bowman's capsule is higher in diseased SM22α-/-mice. This was accompanied by increased PEC proliferation (measured by ki-67 staining), and an increase in immunostaining for the progenitor marker NCAM, in a subpopulation of PECs in diseased SM22α-/-mice. In addition, immunostaining for vimentin and alpha smooth muscle actin, markers of epithelial-to-mesenchymal transition (EMT), was lower in diseased SM22α-/-mice compared to diseased SM22α+/+mice. SM22α levels may impact how PECs respond following a primary podocyte injury in experimental glomerular disease. Absent/lower levels favor an increase in PEC transition cells and PECs expressing a progenitor marker, and a lower EMT rate compared to SM22α+/+mice, where SM22 levels are markedly increased in PECs.

  17. Search for the SM Higgs boson decaying to bb in associated production with a Z boson decaying in the invisible channel

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Donato Silvio

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available A search for the Standard Model (SM Higgs boson decaying into two b jets using associated production with a Z boson decaying into a pair of neutrinos is presented at LHCP. The CMS pp collisions data-samples of 4.7/fb of at the center-of-mass energy of 7 TeV and 19.0 /fb at the energy of 8 TeV have been analyzed. The techniques employed to discriminate signal from background are explained. An upper limit of 2.3 times the SM Higgs cross section at 95% of confidence level has been observed. The signal strength for mH = 125 GeV is 1.0 ± 0.8 times the SM prediction.

  18. The Cloud2SM Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crinière, Antoine; Dumoulin, Jean; Mevel, Laurent; Andrade-Barosso, Guillermo; Simonin, Matthieu

    2015-04-01

    From the past decades the monitoring of civil engineering structure became a major field of research and development process in the domains of modelling and integrated instrumentation. This increasing of interest can be attributed in part to the need of controlling the aging of such structures and on the other hand to the need to optimize maintenance costs. From this standpoint the project Cloud2SM (Cloud architecture design for Structural Monitoring with in-line Sensors and Models tasking), has been launched to develop a robust information system able to assess the long term monitoring of civil engineering structures as well as interfacing various sensors and data. The specificity of such architecture is to be based on the notion of data processing through physical or statistical models. Thus the data processing, whether material or mathematical, can be seen here as a resource of the main architecture. The project can be divided in various items: -The sensors and their measurement process: Those items provide data to the main architecture and can embed storage or computational resources. Dependent of onboard capacity and the amount of data generated it can be distinguished heavy and light sensors. - The storage resources: Based on the cloud concept this resource can store at least two types of data, raw data and processed ones. - The computational resources: This item includes embedded "pseudo real time" resources as the dedicated computer cluster or computational resources. - The models: Used for the conversion of raw data to meaningful data. Those types of resources inform the system of their needs they can be seen as independents blocks of the system. - The user interface: This item can be divided in various HMI to assess maintaining operation on the sensors or pop-up some information to the user. - The demonstrators: The structures themselves. This project follows previous research works initiated in the European project ISTIMES [1]. It includes the infrared

  19. Predictive integrated modelling for ITER scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Artaud, J.F.; Imbeaux, F.; Aniel, T.; Basiuk, V.; Eriksson, L.G.; Giruzzi, G.; Hoang, G.T.; Huysmans, G.; Joffrin, E.; Peysson, Y.; Schneider, M.; Thomas, P.

    2005-01-01

    The uncertainty on the prediction of ITER scenarios is evaluated. 2 transport models which have been extensively validated against the multi-machine database are used for the computation of the transport coefficients. The first model is GLF23, the second called Kiauto is a model in which the profile of dilution coefficient is a gyro Bohm-like analytical function, renormalized in order to get profiles consistent with a given global energy confinement scaling. The package of codes CRONOS is used, it gives access to the dynamics of the discharge and allows the study of interplay between heat transport, current diffusion and sources. The main motivation of this work is to study the influence of parameters such plasma current, heat, density, impurities and toroidal moment transport. We can draw the following conclusions: 1) the target Q = 10 can be obtained in ITER hybrid scenario at I p = 13 MA, using either the DS03 two terms scaling or the GLF23 model based on the same pedestal; 2) I p = 11.3 MA, Q = 10 can be reached only assuming a very peaked pressure profile and a low pedestal; 3) at fixed Greenwald fraction, Q increases with density peaking; 4) achieving a stationary q-profile with q > 1 requires a large non-inductive current fraction (80%) that could be provided by 20 to 40 MW of LHCD; and 5) owing to the high temperature the q-profile penetration is delayed and q = 1 is reached about 600 s in ITER hybrid scenario at I p = 13 MA, in the absence of active q-profile control. (A.C.)

  20. Octupole excitations in 146Sm

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bizzeti, P.G.; Bizzetti-Sona, A.M.

    1998-01-01

    The mean lives of the lowest 9 - and 12 + states of 146 Sm have been measured by means of the RDM. Their (preliminary) values are r m (9 - )=0.97±0.05 ns and r m (12 + )=15±2 ps, respectively. The strengths of the collective E3 transitions of the 12 + →9 - →6 6 cascade are compared with the corresponding ones in 148 Gd

  1. Low temperature features of the local structure of Sm1-xYxS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Menushenkov, A. P.; Chernikov, R. V.; Sidorov, V. V.; Klementiev, K. V.; Alekseev, P. A.; Rybina, A. V.

    2007-01-01

    The particular features of the local electronic and local crystal structures of the mixed-valence compound Sm 1-x Y x S are studied by the XAFS spectroscopy methods in the temperature range 20-300 K for the yttrium concentration x = 0.17, 0.25, 0.33, and 0.45. The temperature behavior of the valence of Sm, as well as of the lengths and the Debye-Waller factors of the bonds Sm-S, Sm-Sm(Y), Y-S, and Y-Sm(Y), has been determined. The violation of the Vegard law has been observed. A model for the estimation of the energy width of the 4f level and of its position with respect to the Fermi level is proposed

  2. The provenance and Sm/Nd Model ages of siliciclastic supracrustal rocks of the Faina and Santa Rita Greenstone belts, Goias, Brazil; Proveniencia e idades modelo Sm/Nd das rochas siliciclasticas arqueanas dos greenstone belts de Faina e Santa Rita, Goias

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Resende, Marcelo Goncalves [Universidade Catolica de Brasilia, DF (Brazil); Jost, Hardy [Brasilia Univ., DF (Brazil). Inst. de Geociencias; Lima, Bruno Eustaquio Moreira; Teixeira, Alexandre de Amorim

    1999-09-01

    The Faina and Santa Rita greenstone belts are two N 60 deg C W trending synclinoria separated by a N 30 deg C E strike-slip fault and rest allochtonous on the adjacent Uva and Caicara granite-gneiss complexes. The belts are made up of lower metakomatiites, followed by metabasalts and thick metasedimentary sequences deposited under contrasting paleogeographic settings. In Faina, the sequence consists of two complete shelf cycles, the first resting on basalts by an erosional unconformity. In Santa Rita, the basalts give gradually place to carbonaceous metashales, unconformably overlain by metarhythmites. Provenance based on trace element geochemistry, mineral chemistry of chloride and muscovite, source-are modeling and REE elements indicate that protoliths of the first shelf cycle of Faina and the carbonaceous metashales of Santa Rita formed under the influence of a source area dominated by mafic ultramafic rocks, whilst during the sedimentation of the second shelf cycle and the metarhythmites of Santa Rita the source-area was dominated by TTG granitoids. Sm-Nd model ages of the lower sedimentary packages vary between 3.0 and 2.8 Ga and the upper between 2.7 and 2.6 Ga. These intervals coincide, respectively, with the estimated age of the underlying, and with the Sm-Nd, Rb-Sr e U-Pb ages of the main granitoids and gneisses of the adjacent complexes. The same data indicate that, during the sedimentation of the first shelf cycle of Faina and the carbonaceous metashales of Santa Rita, both basins had independent source-areas, but shared the same source during the upper sections. Weathering nature and intensity of the source-area calculated by means of geochemical a data suggest that the dramatic change of provenance from the lower to the upper sections is due to the shift from tectonically stable to unstable regimes, interpreted as resulting from the emergence of the island arc whose roots are represented by the adjacent granite-gneiss complexes. (author)

  3. Higher-order scalar interactions and SM vacuum stability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lalak, Zygmunt; Lewicki, Marek; Olszewski, Paweł [Institute of Theoretical Physics, Faculty of Physics, University of Warsawul. Hoża 69, Warsaw (Poland)

    2014-05-26

    Investigation of the structure of the Standard Model effective potential at very large field strengths opens a window towards new phenomena and can reveal properties of the UV completion of the SM. The map of the lifetimes of the vacua of the SM enhanced by nonrenormalizable scalar couplings has been compiled to show how new interactions modify stability of the electroweak vacuum. Whereas it is possible to stabilize the SM by adding Planck scale suppressed interactions and taking into account running of the new couplings, the generic effect is shortening the lifetime and hence further destabilisation of the SM electroweak vacuum. These findings have been illustrated with phase diagrams of modified SM-like models. It has been demonstrated that stabilisation can be achieved by lowering the suppression scale of higher order operators while picking up such combinations of new couplings, which do not deepen the new minima of the potential. Our results show the dependence of the lifetime of the electroweak minimum on the magnitude of the new couplings, including cases with very small couplings (which means very large effective suppression scale) and couplings vastly different in magnitude (which corresponds to two different suppression scales)

  4. Subcoulomb fusion of 16O in odd Sm isotopes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pacheco, A.J.

    1989-01-01

    Cross sections for the formation of evaporation residues were measured for the reaction of 16 O with the odd 147 Sm and 149 Sm nuclei at near barrier energies. The results are well described by statistical model calculations. Fusion cross sections as a function of energy do not show any unusual behaviour that could be attributed to the presence of unpaired nucleons. An analysis based on a one-dimensional penetration model that includes the effect of permanent quadrupolar deformations shows that the extracted values of the parameter β 2 follow the systematics established by the rest of the even samarium isotopes. The dependence of β 2 on the mass of the target nucleus indicates that the influence exerted by collective aspects upon the subbarrier fusion process increases rapidly as a function of the number of neutrons added to the spherical semimagic 144 Sm nucleus. (Author) [es

  5. Integrating geophysics and hydrology for reducing the uncertainty of groundwater model predictions and improved prediction performance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Nikolaj Kruse; Christensen, Steen; Ferre, Ty

    the integration of geophysical data in the construction of a groundwater model increases the prediction performance. We suggest that modelers should perform a hydrogeophysical “test-bench” analysis of the likely value of geophysics data for improving groundwater model prediction performance before actually...... and the resulting predictions can be compared with predictions from the ‘true’ model. By performing this analysis we expect to give the modeler insight into how the uncertainty of model-based prediction can be reduced.......A major purpose of groundwater modeling is to help decision-makers in efforts to manage the natural environment. Increasingly, it is recognized that both the predictions of interest and their associated uncertainties should be quantified to support robust decision making. In particular, decision...

  6. Dark Matter and Color Octets Beyond the Standard Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Krnjaic, Gordan Zdenko [Johns Hopkins Univ., Baltimore, MD (United States)

    2012-07-01

    Although the Standard Model (SM) of particles and interactions has survived forty years of experimental tests, it does not provide a complete description of nature. From cosmological and astrophysical observations, it is now clear that the majority of matter in the universe is not baryonic and interacts very weakly (if at all) via non-gravitational forces. The SM does not provide a dark matter candidate, so new particles must be introduced. Furthermore, recent Tevatron results suggest that SM predictions for benchmark collider observables are in tension with experimental observations. In this thesis, we will propose extensions to the SM that address each of these issues.

  7. Neural Fuzzy Inference System-Based Weather Prediction Model and Its Precipitation Predicting Experiment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jing Lu

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available We propose a weather prediction model in this article based on neural network and fuzzy inference system (NFIS-WPM, and then apply it to predict daily fuzzy precipitation given meteorological premises for testing. The model consists of two parts: the first part is the “fuzzy rule-based neural network”, which simulates sequential relations among fuzzy sets using artificial neural network; and the second part is the “neural fuzzy inference system”, which is based on the first part, but could learn new fuzzy rules from the previous ones according to the algorithm we proposed. NFIS-WPM (High Pro and NFIS-WPM (Ave are improved versions of this model. It is well known that the need for accurate weather prediction is apparent when considering the benefits. However, the excessive pursuit of accuracy in weather prediction makes some of the “accurate” prediction results meaningless and the numerical prediction model is often complex and time-consuming. By adapting this novel model to a precipitation prediction problem, we make the predicted outcomes of precipitation more accurate and the prediction methods simpler than by using the complex numerical forecasting model that would occupy large computation resources, be time-consuming and which has a low predictive accuracy rate. Accordingly, we achieve more accurate predictive precipitation results than by using traditional artificial neural networks that have low predictive accuracy.

  8. Foundation Settlement Prediction Based on a Novel NGM Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peng-Yu Chen

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Prediction of foundation or subgrade settlement is very important during engineering construction. According to the fact that there are lots of settlement-time sequences with a nonhomogeneous index trend, a novel grey forecasting model called NGM (1,1,k,c model is proposed in this paper. With an optimized whitenization differential equation, the proposed NGM (1,1,k,c model has the property of white exponential law coincidence and can predict a pure nonhomogeneous index sequence precisely. We used two case studies to verify the predictive effect of NGM (1,1,k,c model for settlement prediction. The results show that this model can achieve excellent prediction accuracy; thus, the model is quite suitable for simulation and prediction of approximate nonhomogeneous index sequence and has excellent application value in settlement prediction.

  9. Nonconvex model predictive control for commercial refrigeration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gybel Hovgaard, Tobias; Boyd, Stephen; Larsen, Lars F. S.; Bagterp Jørgensen, John

    2013-08-01

    We consider the control of a commercial multi-zone refrigeration system, consisting of several cooling units that share a common compressor, and is used to cool multiple areas or rooms. In each time period we choose cooling capacity to each unit and a common evaporation temperature. The goal is to minimise the total energy cost, using real-time electricity prices, while obeying temperature constraints on the zones. We propose a variation on model predictive control to achieve this goal. When the right variables are used, the dynamics of the system are linear, and the constraints are convex. The cost function, however, is nonconvex due to the temperature dependence of thermodynamic efficiency. To handle this nonconvexity we propose a sequential convex optimisation method, which typically converges in fewer than 5 or so iterations. We employ a fast convex quadratic programming solver to carry out the iterations, which is more than fast enough to run in real time. We demonstrate our method on a realistic model, with a full year simulation and 15-minute time periods, using historical electricity prices and weather data, as well as random variations in thermal load. These simulations show substantial cost savings, on the order of 30%, compared to a standard thermostat-based control system. Perhaps more important, we see that the method exhibits sophisticated response to real-time variations in electricity prices. This demand response is critical to help balance real-time uncertainties in generation capacity associated with large penetration of intermittent renewable energy sources in a future smart grid.

  10. Predictive Modelling of Heavy Metals in Urban Lakes

    OpenAIRE

    Lindström, Martin

    2000-01-01

    Heavy metals are well-known environmental pollutants. In this thesis predictive models for heavy metals in urban lakes are discussed and new models presented. The base of predictive modelling is empirical data from field investigations of many ecosystems covering a wide range of ecosystem characteristics. Predictive models focus on the variabilities among lakes and processes controlling the major metal fluxes. Sediment and water data for this study were collected from ten small lakes in the ...

  11. A 3D coupled hydro-mechanical granular model for the prediction of hot tearing formation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sistaninia, M; Drezet, J-M; Rappaz, M; Phillion, A B

    2012-01-01

    A new 3D coupled hydro-mechanical granular model that simulates hot tearing formation in metallic alloys is presented. The hydro-mechanical model consists of four separate 3D modules. (I) The Solidification Module (SM) is used for generating the initial solid-liquid geometry. Based on a Voronoi tessellation of randomly distributed nucleation centers, this module computes solidification within each polyhedron using a finite element based solute diffusion calculation for each element within the tessellation. (II) The Fluid Flow Module (FFM) calculates the solidification shrinkage and deformation-induced pressure drop within the intergranular liquid. (III) The Semi-solid Deformation Module (SDM) is used to simulate deformation of the granular structure via a combined finite element / discrete element method. In this module, deformation of the solid grains is modeled using an elasto-viscoplastic constitutive law. (IV) The Failure Module (FM) is used to simulate crack initiation and propagation with the fracture criterion estimated from the overpressure required to overcome the capillary forces at the liquid-gas interface. The FFM, SDM, and FM are coupled processes since solid deformation, intergranular flow, and crack initiation are deeply linked together. The granular model predictions have been validated against bulk data measured experimentally and calculated with averaging techniques.

  12. Seasonal predictability of Kiremt rainfall in coupled general circulation models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gleixner, Stephanie; Keenlyside, Noel S.; Demissie, Teferi D.; Counillon, François; Wang, Yiguo; Viste, Ellen

    2017-11-01

    The Ethiopian economy and population is strongly dependent on rainfall. Operational seasonal predictions for the main rainy season (Kiremt, June-September) are based on statistical approaches with Pacific sea surface temperatures (SST) as the main predictor. Here we analyse dynamical predictions from 11 coupled general circulation models for the Kiremt seasons from 1985-2005 with the forecasts starting from the beginning of May. We find skillful predictions from three of the 11 models, but no model beats a simple linear prediction model based on the predicted Niño3.4 indices. The skill of the individual models for dynamically predicting Kiremt rainfall depends on the strength of the teleconnection between Kiremt rainfall and concurrent Pacific SST in the models. Models that do not simulate this teleconnection fail to capture the observed relationship between Kiremt rainfall and the large-scale Walker circulation.

  13. MODELLING OF DYNAMIC SPEED LIMITS USING THE MODEL PREDICTIVE CONTROL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrey Borisovich Nikolaev

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The article considers the issues of traffic management using intelligent system “Car-Road” (IVHS, which consist of interacting intelligent vehicles (IV and intelligent roadside controllers. Vehicles are organized in convoy with small distances between them. All vehicles are assumed to be fully automated (throttle control, braking, steering. Proposed approaches for determining speed limits for traffic cars on the motorway using a model predictive control (MPC. The article proposes an approach to dynamic speed limit to minimize the downtime of vehicles in traffic.

  14. MJO prediction skill of the subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) prediction models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Son, S. W.; Lim, Y.; Kim, D.

    2017-12-01

    The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), the dominant mode of tropical intraseasonal variability, provides the primary source of tropical and extratropical predictability on subseasonal to seasonal timescales. To better understand its predictability, this study conducts quantitative evaluation of MJO prediction skill in the state-of-the-art operational models participating in the subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) prediction project. Based on bivariate correlation coefficient of 0.5, the S2S models exhibit MJO prediction skill ranging from 12 to 36 days. These prediction skills are affected by both the MJO amplitude and phase errors, the latter becoming more important with forecast lead times. Consistent with previous studies, the MJO events with stronger initial amplitude are typically better predicted. However, essentially no sensitivity to the initial MJO phase is observed. Overall MJO prediction skill and its inter-model spread are further related with the model mean biases in moisture fields and longwave cloud-radiation feedbacks. In most models, a dry bias quickly builds up in the deep tropics, especially across the Maritime Continent, weakening horizontal moisture gradient. This likely dampens the organization and propagation of MJO. Most S2S models also underestimate the longwave cloud-radiation feedbacks in the tropics, which may affect the maintenance of the MJO convective envelop. In general, the models with a smaller bias in horizontal moisture gradient and longwave cloud-radiation feedbacks show a higher MJO prediction skill, suggesting that improving those processes would enhance MJO prediction skill.

  15. Sierra/SM theory manual.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Crane, Nathan Karl

    2013-07-01

    Presented in this document are the theoretical aspects of capabilities contained in the Sierra/SM code. This manuscript serves as an ideal starting point for understanding the theoretical foundations of the code. For a comprehensive study of these capabilities, the reader is encouraged to explore the many references to scientific articles and textbooks contained in this manual. It is important to point out that some capabilities are still in development and may not be presented in this document. Further updates to this manuscript will be made as these capabilites come closer to production level.

  16. Purification of the spliced leader ribonucleoprotein particle from Leptomonas collosoma revealed the existence of an Sm protein in trypanosomes. Cloning the SmE homologue.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goncharov, I; Palfi, Z; Bindereif, A; Michaeli, S

    1999-04-30

    Trans-splicing in trypanosomes involves the addition of a common spliced leader (SL) sequence, which is derived from a small RNA, the SL RNA, to all mRNA precursors. The SL RNA is present in the cell in the form of a ribonucleoprotein, the SL RNP. Using conventional chromatography and affinity selection with 2'-O-methylated RNA oligonucleotides at high ionic strength, five proteins of 70, 16, 13, 12, and 8 kDa were co-selected with the SL RNA from Leptomonas collosoma, representing the SL RNP core particle. Under conditions of lower ionic strength, additional proteins of 28 and 20 kDa were revealed. On the basis of peptide sequences, the gene coding for a protein with a predicted molecular weight of 11.9 kDa was cloned and identified as homologue of the cis-spliceosomal SmE. The protein carries the Sm motifs 1 and 2 characteristic of Sm antigens that bind to all known cis-spliceosomal uridylic acid-rich small nuclear RNAs (U snRNAs), suggesting the existence of Sm proteins in trypanosomes. This finding is of special interest because trypanosome snRNPs are the only snRNPs examined to date that are not recognized by anti-Sm antibodies. Because of the early divergence of trypanosomes from the eukaryotic lineage, the trypanosome SmE protein represents one of the primordial Sm proteins in nature.

  17. Butterfly, Recurrence, and Predictability in Lorenz Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, B. W.

    2017-12-01

    Over the span of 50 years, the original three-dimensional Lorenz model (3DLM; Lorenz,1963) and its high-dimensional versions (e.g., Shen 2014a and references therein) have been used for improving our understanding of the predictability of weather and climate with a focus on chaotic responses. Although the Lorenz studies focus on nonlinear processes and chaotic dynamics, people often apply a "linear" conceptual model to understand the nonlinear processes in the 3DLM. In this talk, we present examples to illustrate the common misunderstandings regarding butterfly effect and discuss the importance of solutions' recurrence and boundedness in the 3DLM and high-dimensional LMs. The first example is discussed with the following folklore that has been widely used as an analogy of the butterfly effect: "For want of a nail, the shoe was lost.For want of a shoe, the horse was lost.For want of a horse, the rider was lost.For want of a rider, the battle was lost.For want of a battle, the kingdom was lost.And all for the want of a horseshoe nail."However, in 2008, Prof. Lorenz stated that he did not feel that this verse described true chaos but that it better illustrated the simpler phenomenon of instability; and that the verse implicitly suggests that subsequent small events will not reverse the outcome (Lorenz, 2008). Lorenz's comments suggest that the verse neither describes negative (nonlinear) feedback nor indicates recurrence, the latter of which is required for the appearance of a butterfly pattern. The second example is to illustrate that the divergence of two nearby trajectories should be bounded and recurrent, as shown in Figure 1. Furthermore, we will discuss how high-dimensional LMs were derived to illustrate (1) negative nonlinear feedback that stabilizes the system within the five- and seven-dimensional LMs (5D and 7D LMs; Shen 2014a; 2015a; 2016); (2) positive nonlinear feedback that destabilizes the system within the 6D and 8D LMs (Shen 2015b; 2017); and (3

  18. Auditing predictive models : a case study in crop growth

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Metselaar, K.

    1999-01-01

    Methods were developed to assess and quantify the predictive quality of simulation models, with the intent to contribute to evaluation of model studies by non-scientists. In a case study, two models of different complexity, LINTUL and SUCROS87, were used to predict yield of forage maize

  19. Models for predicting compressive strength and water absorption of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This work presents a mathematical model for predicting the compressive strength and water absorption of laterite-quarry dust cement block using augmented Scheffe's simplex lattice design. The statistical models developed can predict the mix proportion that will yield the desired property. The models were tested for lack of ...

  20. Statistical and Machine Learning Models to Predict Programming Performance

    OpenAIRE

    Bergin, Susan

    2006-01-01

    This thesis details a longitudinal study on factors that influence introductory programming success and on the development of machine learning models to predict incoming student performance. Although numerous studies have developed models to predict programming success, the models struggled to achieve high accuracy in predicting the likely performance of incoming students. Our approach overcomes this by providing a machine learning technique, using a set of three significant...

  1. Prediction of Francis Turbine Prototype Part Load Pressure and Output Power Fluctuations with Hydroelectric Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alligné, S.; Nicolet, C.; Béguin, A.; Landry, C.; Gomes, J.; Avellan, F.

    2017-04-01

    The prediction of pressure and output power fluctuations amplitudes on Francis turbine prototype is a challenge for hydro-equipment industry since it is subjected to guarantees to ensure smooth and reliable operation of the hydro units. The European FP7 research project Hyperbole aims to setup a methodology to transpose the pressure fluctuations induced by the cavitation vortex rope from the reduced scale model to the prototype generating units. A Francis turbine unit of 444MW with a specific speed value of ν = 0.29, is considered as case study. A SIMSEN model of the power station including electrical system, controllers, rotating train and hydraulic system with transposed draft tube excitation sources is setup. Based on this model, a frequency analysis of the hydroelectric system is performed for all technologies to analyse potential interactions between hydraulic excitation sources and electrical components. Three technologies have been compared: the classical fixed speed configuration with Synchronous Machine (SM) and the two variable speed technologies which are Doubly Fed Induction Machine (DFIM) and Full Size Frequency Converter (FSFC).

  2. Probabilistic Modeling and Visualization for Bankruptcy Prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Antunes, Francisco; Ribeiro, Bernardete; Pereira, Francisco Camara

    2017-01-01

    In accounting and finance domains, bankruptcy prediction is of great utility for all of the economic stakeholders. The challenge of accurate assessment of business failure prediction, specially under scenarios of financial crisis, is known to be complicated. Although there have been many successful...... studies on bankruptcy detection, seldom probabilistic approaches were carried out. In this paper we assume a probabilistic point-of-view by applying Gaussian Processes (GP) in the context of bankruptcy prediction, comparing it against the Support Vector Machines (SVM) and the Logistic Regression (LR......). Using real-world bankruptcy data, an in-depth analysis is conducted showing that, in addition to a probabilistic interpretation, the GP can effectively improve the bankruptcy prediction performance with high accuracy when compared to the other approaches. We additionally generate a complete graphical...

  3. Accurate and dynamic predictive model for better prediction in medicine and healthcare.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alanazi, H O; Abdullah, A H; Qureshi, K N; Ismail, A S

    2018-05-01

    Information and communication technologies (ICTs) have changed the trend into new integrated operations and methods in all fields of life. The health sector has also adopted new technologies to improve the systems and provide better services to customers. Predictive models in health care are also influenced from new technologies to predict the different disease outcomes. However, still, existing predictive models have suffered from some limitations in terms of predictive outcomes performance. In order to improve predictive model performance, this paper proposed a predictive model by classifying the disease predictions into different categories. To achieve this model performance, this paper uses traumatic brain injury (TBI) datasets. TBI is one of the serious diseases worldwide and needs more attention due to its seriousness and serious impacts on human life. The proposed predictive model improves the predictive performance of TBI. The TBI data set is developed and approved by neurologists to set its features. The experiment results show that the proposed model has achieved significant results including accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity.

  4. A new ensemble model for short term wind power prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Henrik; Albu, Razvan-Daniel; Felea, Ioan

    2012-01-01

    As the objective of this study, a non-linear ensemble system is used to develop a new model for predicting wind speed in short-term time scale. Short-term wind power prediction becomes an extremely important field of research for the energy sector. Regardless of the recent advancements in the re-search...... of prediction models, it was observed that different models have different capabilities and also no single model is suitable under all situations. The idea behind EPS (ensemble prediction systems) is to take advantage of the unique features of each subsystem to detain diverse patterns that exist in the dataset...

  5. Testing the predictive power of nuclear mass models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mendoza-Temis, J.; Morales, I.; Barea, J.; Frank, A.; Hirsch, J.G.; Vieyra, J.C. Lopez; Van Isacker, P.; Velazquez, V.

    2008-01-01

    A number of tests are introduced which probe the ability of nuclear mass models to extrapolate. Three models are analyzed in detail: the liquid drop model, the liquid drop model plus empirical shell corrections and the Duflo-Zuker mass formula. If predicted nuclei are close to the fitted ones, average errors in predicted and fitted masses are similar. However, the challenge of predicting nuclear masses in a region stabilized by shell effects (e.g., the lead region) is far more difficult. The Duflo-Zuker mass formula emerges as a powerful predictive tool

  6. From Predictive Models to Instructional Policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rollinson, Joseph; Brunskill, Emma

    2015-01-01

    At their core, Intelligent Tutoring Systems consist of a student model and a policy. The student model captures the state of the student and the policy uses the student model to individualize instruction. Policies require different properties from the student model. For example, a mastery threshold policy requires the student model to have a way…

  7. Lifetime measurements of the excited states in {sup 145} Sm

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    El-Badry, A M; Abdel Samie, Sh; Ahmad, A A [Depatment of Physics, Faculty of Science, ElMinia University, ElMinia, (Egypt); Kuroyanagi, T; Odahara, A; Gono, Y; Morinobu, S [Tandem Accelerator Laboratory, Department of Physics, Kyushu University, (Japan)

    1997-12-31

    Lifetime of the excited levels in {sup 145} Sm has been measured through the {sup 139} La ({sup 10} B, 4 n){sup 145} Sm nuclear reaction. The optimal beam energy of 49 MeV was determined from the measurements of the excitation function and Cascade program. With the possibility of studying lifetime of this nucleus a conventional plunger system have been designed and constructed at kyushu University tandem accelerator laboratory. A La target of 0.22 mg/cm{sup 2} thickness which was evaporated onto a Au foil of 2 mg/cm{sup 2} thickness was used. Since the recoil velocity was estimated to be 1.76 mm/ns (beta 0.00585), the measurable time range resulted in the range from 5 Ps to 5 ns. The single spectra measurements were performed at the 20 plunger positions in the range from 10 {mu} to 10 mm. Analyses of the data were carried using hypermet and/or GF2 program to obtain the lifetimes. A new list of lifetimes for 12 excited states up to 3.922 MeV excitations for {sup 145} Sm were determined for the first time. Decay curves of the these transitions are discussed. The new lifetimes of excited states in {sup 145} Sm enabled us to understand the electromagnetic properties. The deduced transition probabilities were established and compared with that of N = 83 isotones and the closed shell nucleus {sup 144} Sm. In addition, a nuclear structure of {sup 145} Sm have been discussed and proposed in framework of the shell model. 4 figs., 1 tab.

  8. The Complexity of Developmental Predictions from Dual Process Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stanovich, Keith E.; West, Richard F.; Toplak, Maggie E.

    2011-01-01

    Drawing developmental predictions from dual-process theories is more complex than is commonly realized. Overly simplified predictions drawn from such models may lead to premature rejection of the dual process approach as one of many tools for understanding cognitive development. Misleading predictions can be avoided by paying attention to several…

  9. Sweat loss prediction using a multi-model approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Xiaojiang; Santee, William R

    2011-07-01

    A new multi-model approach (MMA) for sweat loss prediction is proposed to improve prediction accuracy. MMA was computed as the average of sweat loss predicted by two existing thermoregulation models: i.e., the rational model SCENARIO and the empirical model Heat Strain Decision Aid (HSDA). Three independent physiological datasets, a total of 44 trials, were used to compare predictions by MMA, SCENARIO, and HSDA. The observed sweat losses were collected under different combinations of uniform ensembles, environmental conditions (15-40°C, RH 25-75%), and exercise intensities (250-600 W). Root mean square deviation (RMSD), residual plots, and paired t tests were used to compare predictions with observations. Overall, MMA reduced RMSD by 30-39% in comparison with either SCENARIO or HSDA, and increased the prediction accuracy to 66% from 34% or 55%. Of the MMA predictions, 70% fell within the range of mean observed value ± SD, while only 43% of SCENARIO and 50% of HSDA predictions fell within the same range. Paired t tests showed that differences between observations and MMA predictions were not significant, but differences between observations and SCENARIO or HSDA predictions were significantly different for two datasets. Thus, MMA predicted sweat loss more accurately than either of the two single models for the three datasets used. Future work will be to evaluate MMA using additional physiological data to expand the scope of populations and conditions.

  10. Comparisons of Faulting-Based Pavement Performance Prediction Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Weina Wang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Faulting prediction is the core of concrete pavement maintenance and design. Highway agencies are always faced with the problem of lower accuracy for the prediction which causes costly maintenance. Although many researchers have developed some performance prediction models, the accuracy of prediction has remained a challenge. This paper reviews performance prediction models and JPCP faulting models that have been used in past research. Then three models including multivariate nonlinear regression (MNLR model, artificial neural network (ANN model, and Markov Chain (MC model are tested and compared using a set of actual pavement survey data taken on interstate highway with varying design features, traffic, and climate data. It is found that MNLR model needs further recalibration, while the ANN model needs more data for training the network. MC model seems a good tool for pavement performance prediction when the data is limited, but it is based on visual inspections and not explicitly related to quantitative physical parameters. This paper then suggests that the further direction for developing the performance prediction model is incorporating the advantages and disadvantages of different models to obtain better accuracy.

  11. High-precision predictions for the light CP-even Higgs boson mass of the minimal supersymmetric standard model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hahn, T; Heinemeyer, S; Hollik, W; Rzehak, H; Weiglein, G

    2014-04-11

    For the interpretation of the signal discovered in the Higgs searches at the LHC it will be crucial in particular to discriminate between the minimal Higgs sector realized in the standard model (SM) and its most commonly studied extension, the minimal supersymmetric standard model (MSSM). The measured mass value, having already reached the level of a precision observable with an experimental accuracy of about 500 MeV, plays an important role in this context. In the MSSM the mass of the light CP-even Higgs boson, Mh, can directly be predicted from the other parameters of the model. The accuracy of this prediction should at least match the one of the experimental result. The relatively high mass value of about 126 GeV has led to many investigations where the scalar top quarks are in the multi-TeV range. We improve the prediction for Mh in the MSSM by combining the existing fixed-order result, comprising the full one-loop and leading and subleading two-loop corrections, with a resummation of the leading and subleading logarithmic contributions from the scalar top sector to all orders. In this way for the first time a high-precision prediction for the mass of the light CP-even Higgs boson in the MSSM is possible all the way up to the multi-TeV region of the relevant supersymmetric particles. The results are included in the code FEYNHIGGS.

  12. Distinguishing a SM-like MSSM Higgs boson from SM Higgs boson ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    We explore the possibility of distinguishing the SM-like MSSM Higgs boson from the SM Higgs boson via Higgs boson pair production at future muon collider. We study the behavior of the production cross-section in SM and MSSM with Higgs boson mass for various MSSM parameters tan and A. We observe that at fixed ...

  13. Modeling of Complex Life Cycle Prediction Based on Cell Division

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fucheng Zhang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Effective fault diagnosis and reasonable life expectancy are of great significance and practical engineering value for the safety, reliability, and maintenance cost of equipment and working environment. At present, the life prediction methods of the equipment are equipment life prediction based on condition monitoring, combined forecasting model, and driven data. Most of them need to be based on a large amount of data to achieve the problem. For this issue, we propose learning from the mechanism of cell division in the organism. We have established a moderate complexity of life prediction model across studying the complex multifactor correlation life model. In this paper, we model the life prediction of cell division. Experiments show that our model can effectively simulate the state of cell division. Through the model of reference, we will use it for the equipment of the complex life prediction.

  14. Risk prediction model: Statistical and artificial neural network approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paiman, Nuur Azreen; Hariri, Azian; Masood, Ibrahim

    2017-04-01

    Prediction models are increasingly gaining popularity and had been used in numerous areas of studies to complement and fulfilled clinical reasoning and decision making nowadays. The adoption of such models assist physician's decision making, individual's behavior, and consequently improve individual outcomes and the cost-effectiveness of care. The objective of this paper is to reviewed articles related to risk prediction model in order to understand the suitable approach, development and the validation process of risk prediction model. A qualitative review of the aims, methods and significant main outcomes of the nineteen published articles that developed risk prediction models from numerous fields were done. This paper also reviewed on how researchers develop and validate the risk prediction models based on statistical and artificial neural network approach. From the review done, some methodological recommendation in developing and validating the prediction model were highlighted. According to studies that had been done, artificial neural network approached in developing the prediction model were more accurate compared to statistical approach. However currently, only limited published literature discussed on which approach is more accurate for risk prediction model development.

  15. Predictive modeling and reducing cyclic variability in autoignition engines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hellstrom, Erik; Stefanopoulou, Anna; Jiang, Li; Larimore, Jacob

    2016-08-30

    Methods and systems are provided for controlling a vehicle engine to reduce cycle-to-cycle combustion variation. A predictive model is applied to predict cycle-to-cycle combustion behavior of an engine based on observed engine performance variables. Conditions are identified, based on the predicted cycle-to-cycle combustion behavior, that indicate high cycle-to-cycle combustion variation. Corrective measures are then applied to prevent the predicted high cycle-to-cycle combustion variation.

  16. Dynamic Simulation of Human Gait Model With Predictive Capability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Jinming; Wu, Shaoli; Voglewede, Philip A

    2018-03-01

    In this paper, it is proposed that the central nervous system (CNS) controls human gait using a predictive control approach in conjunction with classical feedback control instead of exclusive classical feedback control theory that controls based on past error. To validate this proposition, a dynamic model of human gait is developed using a novel predictive approach to investigate the principles of the CNS. The model developed includes two parts: a plant model that represents the dynamics of human gait and a controller that represents the CNS. The plant model is a seven-segment, six-joint model that has nine degrees-of-freedom (DOF). The plant model is validated using data collected from able-bodied human subjects. The proposed controller utilizes model predictive control (MPC). MPC uses an internal model to predict the output in advance, compare the predicted output to the reference, and optimize the control input so that the predicted error is minimal. To decrease the complexity of the model, two joints are controlled using a proportional-derivative (PD) controller. The developed predictive human gait model is validated by simulating able-bodied human gait. The simulation results show that the developed model is able to simulate the kinematic output close to experimental data.

  17. Comparative Evaluation of Some Crop Yield Prediction Models ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A computer program was adopted from the work of Hill et al. (1982) to calibrate and test three of the existing yield prediction models using tropical cowpea yieldÐweather data. The models tested were Hanks Model (first and second versions). Stewart Model (first and second versions) and HallÐButcher Model. Three sets of ...

  18. A model to predict the power output from wind farms

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Landberg, L. [Riso National Lab., Roskilde (Denmark)

    1997-12-31

    This paper will describe a model that can predict the power output from wind farms. To give examples of input the model is applied to a wind farm in Texas. The predictions are generated from forecasts from the NGM model of NCEP. These predictions are made valid at individual sites (wind farms) by applying a matrix calculated by the sub-models of WASP (Wind Atlas Application and Analysis Program). The actual wind farm production is calculated using the Riso PARK model. Because of the preliminary nature of the results, they will not be given. However, similar results from Europe will be given.

  19. Modelling microbial interactions and food structure in predictive microbiology

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Malakar, P.K.

    2002-01-01

    Keywords: modelling, dynamic models, microbial interactions, diffusion, microgradients, colony growth, predictive microbiology.

    Growth response of microorganisms in foods is a complex process. Innovations in food production and preservation techniques have resulted in adoption of

  20. Ocean wave prediction using numerical and neural network models

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Mandal, S.; Prabaharan, N.

    This paper presents an overview of the development of the numerical wave prediction models and recently used neural networks for ocean wave hindcasting and forecasting. The numerical wave models express the physical concepts of the phenomena...

  1. A mathematical model for predicting earthquake occurrence ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    We consider the continental crust under damage. We use the observed results of microseism in many seismic stations of the world which was established to study the time series of the activities of the continental crust with a view to predicting possible time of occurrence of earthquake. We consider microseism time series ...

  2. Model for predicting the injury severity score.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hagiwara, Shuichi; Oshima, Kiyohiro; Murata, Masato; Kaneko, Minoru; Aoki, Makoto; Kanbe, Masahiko; Nakamura, Takuro; Ohyama, Yoshio; Tamura, Jun'ichi

    2015-07-01

    To determine the formula that predicts the injury severity score from parameters that are obtained in the emergency department at arrival. We reviewed the medical records of trauma patients who were transferred to the emergency department of Gunma University Hospital between January 2010 and December 2010. The injury severity score, age, mean blood pressure, heart rate, Glasgow coma scale, hemoglobin, hematocrit, red blood cell count, platelet count, fibrinogen, international normalized ratio of prothrombin time, activated partial thromboplastin time, and fibrin degradation products, were examined in those patients on arrival. To determine the formula that predicts the injury severity score, multiple linear regression analysis was carried out. The injury severity score was set as the dependent variable, and the other parameters were set as candidate objective variables. IBM spss Statistics 20 was used for the statistical analysis. Statistical significance was set at P  Watson ratio was 2.200. A formula for predicting the injury severity score in trauma patients was developed with ordinary parameters such as fibrin degradation products and mean blood pressure. This formula is useful because we can predict the injury severity score easily in the emergency department.

  3. Predicting Career Advancement with Structural Equation Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heimler, Ronald; Rosenberg, Stuart; Morote, Elsa-Sofia

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to use the authors' prior findings concerning basic employability skills in order to determine which skills best predict career advancement potential. Design/methodology/approach: Utilizing survey responses of human resource managers, the employability skills showing the largest relationships to career…

  4. Statistical model based gender prediction for targeted NGS clinical panels

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Palani Kannan Kandavel

    2017-12-01

    The reference test dataset are being used to test the model. The sensitivity on predicting the gender has been increased from the current “genotype composition in ChrX” based approach. In addition, the prediction score given by the model can be used to evaluate the quality of clinical dataset. The higher prediction score towards its respective gender indicates the higher quality of sequenced data.

  5. A predictive pilot model for STOL aircraft landing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kleinman, D. L.; Killingsworth, W. R.

    1974-01-01

    An optimal control approach has been used to model pilot performance during STOL flare and landing. The model is used to predict pilot landing performance for three STOL configurations, each having a different level of automatic control augmentation. Model predictions are compared with flight simulator data. It is concluded that the model can be effective design tool for studying analytically the effects of display modifications, different stability augmentation systems, and proposed changes in the landing area geometry.

  6. Anti-skin-aging benefits of exopolymers from Aureobasidium pullulans SM2001.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Kyung Hu; Park, Soo Jin; Lee, Ji Eun; Lee, Young Joon; Song, Chang Hyun; Choi, Seong Hun; Ku, Sae Kwang; Kang, Su Jin

    2014-01-01

    There have been many attempts to search for affordable and effective functional cosmetic ingredients, especially from natural sources. As research into developing a functional cosmetic ingredient, we investigated whether exopolymers from Aureobasidium pullulans SM2001 (E-AP-SM2001) exert antioxidant, antiwrinkle, whitening, and skin moisturizing effects. Antioxidant effects of E-AP-SM2001 were determined by measuring free radical scavenging capacity and superoxide dismutase (SOD)-like activity. Antiwrinkle effects were assessed through the inhibition of hyaluronidase, elastase, collagenase, and matrix metalloproteinase (MMP)-1. Whitening effects were measured by tyrosinase inhibition assay, and by melanin formation test in B16/F10 melanoma cells. Skin moisturizing effects were detected by mouse skin water content test. E-AP-SM2001 showed potent DPPH radical scavenging activity and SOD-like effects. Additionally, hyaluronidase, elastase, collagenase, and MMP-1 activities were significantly inhibited by E-AP-SM2001. We also observed that E-AP-SM2001 effectively reduced melanin production by B16/F10 melanoma cells and mushroom tyrosinase activities. Furthermore, significant increases in skin water content were detected in E-AP-SM2001- treated mouse skin, as compared with vehicle-treated control skin. Notably, a mask pack containing E-AP-SM2001 showed a >twofold more extensive moisturizing effect compared with one containing Saccharomycopsis ferment filtrate. Our results suggest that E-AP-SM2001 has adequate antiaging, antiwrinkle, and whitening benefits and skin moisturizing effect. These effects involve reducing hyaluronidase, elastase, collagenase, and MMP-1 activities, as well as inhibition of melanin production and tyrosinase activities. Therefore, the antioxidant E-AP-SM2001 may serve as a predictable functional ingredient.

  7. Estimating Model Prediction Error: Should You Treat Predictions as Fixed or Random?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wallach, Daniel; Thorburn, Peter; Asseng, Senthold; Challinor, Andrew J.; Ewert, Frank; Jones, James W.; Rotter, Reimund; Ruane, Alexander

    2016-01-01

    Crop models are important tools for impact assessment of climate change, as well as for exploring management options under current climate. It is essential to evaluate the uncertainty associated with predictions of these models. We compare two criteria of prediction error; MSEP fixed, which evaluates mean squared error of prediction for a model with fixed structure, parameters and inputs, and MSEP uncertain( X), which evaluates mean squared error averaged over the distributions of model structure, inputs and parameters. Comparison of model outputs with data can be used to estimate the former. The latter has a squared bias term, which can be estimated using hindcasts, and a model variance term, which can be estimated from a simulation experiment. The separate contributions to MSEP uncertain (X) can be estimated using a random effects ANOVA. It is argued that MSEP uncertain (X) is the more informative uncertainty criterion, because it is specific to each prediction situation.

  8. Model-based uncertainty in species range prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pearson, R. G.; Thuiller, Wilfried; Bastos Araujo, Miguel

    2006-01-01

    Aim Many attempts to predict the potential range of species rely on environmental niche (or 'bioclimate envelope') modelling, yet the effects of using different niche-based methodologies require further investigation. Here we investigate the impact that the choice of model can have on predictions...

  9. Wind turbine control and model predictive control for uncertain systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thomsen, Sven Creutz

    as disturbance models for controller design. The theoretical study deals with Model Predictive Control (MPC). MPC is an optimal control method which is characterized by the use of a receding prediction horizon. MPC has risen in popularity due to its inherent ability to systematically account for time...

  10. Testing and analysis of internal hardwood log defect prediction models

    Science.gov (United States)

    R. Edward Thomas

    2011-01-01

    The severity and location of internal defects determine the quality and value of lumber sawn from hardwood logs. Models have been developed to predict the size and position of internal defects based on external defect indicator measurements. These models were shown to predict approximately 80% of all internal knots based on external knot indicators. However, the size...

  11. Comparison of Simple Versus Performance-Based Fall Prediction Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shekhar K. Gadkaree BS

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Objective: To compare the predictive ability of standard falls prediction models based on physical performance assessments with more parsimonious prediction models based on self-reported data. Design: We developed a series of fall prediction models progressing in complexity and compared area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC across models. Setting: National Health and Aging Trends Study (NHATS, which surveyed a nationally representative sample of Medicare enrollees (age ≥65 at baseline (Round 1: 2011-2012 and 1-year follow-up (Round 2: 2012-2013. Participants: In all, 6,056 community-dwelling individuals participated in Rounds 1 and 2 of NHATS. Measurements: Primary outcomes were 1-year incidence of “ any fall ” and “ recurrent falls .” Prediction models were compared and validated in development and validation sets, respectively. Results: A prediction model that included demographic information, self-reported problems with balance and coordination, and previous fall history was the most parsimonious model that optimized AUC for both any fall (AUC = 0.69, 95% confidence interval [CI] = [0.67, 0.71] and recurrent falls (AUC = 0.77, 95% CI = [0.74, 0.79] in the development set. Physical performance testing provided a marginal additional predictive value. Conclusion: A simple clinical prediction model that does not include physical performance testing could facilitate routine, widespread falls risk screening in the ambulatory care setting.

  12. Models for predicting fuel consumption in sagebrush-dominated ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clinton S. Wright

    2013-01-01

    Fuel consumption predictions are necessary to accurately estimate or model fire effects, including pollutant emissions during wildland fires. Fuel and environmental measurements on a series of operational prescribed fires were used to develop empirical models for predicting fuel consumption in big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentate Nutt.) ecosystems....

  13. Refining the Committee Approach and Uncertainty Prediction in Hydrological Modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kayastha, N.

    2014-01-01

    Due to the complexity of hydrological systems a single model may be unable to capture the full range of a catchment response and accurately predict the streamflows. The multi modelling approach opens up possibilities for handling such difficulties and allows improve the predictive capability of

  14. A new, accurate predictive model for incident hypertension

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Völzke, Henry; Fung, Glenn; Ittermann, Till

    2013-01-01

    Data mining represents an alternative approach to identify new predictors of multifactorial diseases. This work aimed at building an accurate predictive model for incident hypertension using data mining procedures.......Data mining represents an alternative approach to identify new predictors of multifactorial diseases. This work aimed at building an accurate predictive model for incident hypertension using data mining procedures....

  15. Prediction models for successful external cephalic version: a systematic review

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Velzel, Joost; de Hundt, Marcella; Mulder, Frederique M.; Molkenboer, Jan F. M.; van der Post, Joris A. M.; Mol, Ben W.; Kok, Marjolein

    2015-01-01

    To provide an overview of existing prediction models for successful ECV, and to assess their quality, development and performance. We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE and the Cochrane Library to identify all articles reporting on prediction models for successful ECV published from inception to January 2015.

  16. Hidden Markov Model for quantitative prediction of snowfall

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    A Hidden Markov Model (HMM) has been developed for prediction of quantitative snowfall in Pir-Panjal and Great Himalayan mountain ranges of Indian Himalaya. The model predicts snowfall for two days in advance using daily recorded nine meteorological variables of past 20 winters from 1992–2012. There are six ...

  17. Mathematical model for dissolved oxygen prediction in Cirata ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper presents the implementation and performance of mathematical model to predict theconcentration of dissolved oxygen in Cirata Reservoir, West Java by using Artificial Neural Network (ANN). The simulation program was created using Visual Studio 2012 C# software with ANN model implemented in it. Prediction ...

  18. Econometric models for predicting confusion crop ratios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Umberger, D. E.; Proctor, M. H.; Clark, J. E.; Eisgruber, L. M.; Braschler, C. B. (Principal Investigator)

    1979-01-01

    Results for both the United States and Canada show that econometric models can provide estimates of confusion crop ratios that are more accurate than historical ratios. Whether these models can support the LACIE 90/90 accuracy criterion is uncertain. In the United States, experimenting with additional model formulations could provide improved methods models in some CRD's, particularly in winter wheat. Improved models may also be possible for the Canadian CD's. The more aggressive province/state models outperformed individual CD/CRD models. This result was expected partly because acreage statistics are based on sampling procedures, and the sampling precision declines from the province/state to the CD/CRD level. Declining sampling precision and the need to substitute province/state data for the CD/CRD data introduced measurement error into the CD/CRD models.

  19. Development of surrogate models for the prediction of the flow around an aircraft propeller

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salpigidou, Christina; Misirlis, Dimitris; Vlahostergios, Zinon; Yakinthos, Kyros

    2018-05-01

    In the present work, the derivation of two surrogate models (SMs) for modelling the flow around a propeller for small aircrafts is presented. Both methodologies use derived functions based on computations with the detailed propeller geometry. The computations were performed using k-ω shear stress transport for modelling turbulence. In the SMs, the modelling of the propeller was performed in a computational domain of disk-like geometry, where source terms were introduced in the momentum equations. In the first SM, the source terms were polynomial functions of swirl and thrust, mainly related to the propeller radius. In the second SM, regression analysis was used to correlate the source terms with the velocity distribution through the propeller. The proposed SMs achieved faster convergence, in relation to the detail model, by providing also results closer to the available operational data. The regression-based model was the most accurate and required less computational time for convergence.

  20. PEEX Modelling Platform for Seamless Environmental Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baklanov, Alexander; Mahura, Alexander; Arnold, Stephen; Makkonen, Risto; Petäjä, Tuukka; Kerminen, Veli-Matti; Lappalainen, Hanna K.; Ezau, Igor; Nuterman, Roman; Zhang, Wen; Penenko, Alexey; Gordov, Evgeny; Zilitinkevich, Sergej; Kulmala, Markku

    2017-04-01

    The Pan-Eurasian EXperiment (PEEX) is a multidisciplinary, multi-scale research programme stared in 2012 and aimed at resolving the major uncertainties in Earth System Science and global sustainability issues concerning the Arctic and boreal Northern Eurasian regions and in China. Such challenges include climate change, air quality, biodiversity loss, chemicalization, food supply, and the use of natural resources by mining, industry, energy production and transport. The research infrastructure introduces the current state of the art modeling platform and observation systems in the Pan-Eurasian region and presents the future baselines for the coherent and coordinated research infrastructures in the PEEX domain. The PEEX modeling Platform is characterized by a complex seamless integrated Earth System Modeling (ESM) approach, in combination with specific models of different processes and elements of the system, acting on different temporal and spatial scales. The ensemble approach is taken to the integration of modeling results from different models, participants and countries. PEEX utilizes the full potential of a hierarchy of models: scenario analysis, inverse modeling, and modeling based on measurement needs and processes. The models are validated and constrained by available in-situ and remote sensing data of various spatial and temporal scales using data assimilation and top-down modeling. The analyses of the anticipated large volumes of data produced by available models and sensors will be supported by a dedicated virtual research environment developed for these purposes.

  1. Impact of modellers' decisions on hydrological a priori predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holländer, H. M.; Bormann, H.; Blume, T.; Buytaert, W.; Chirico, G. B.; Exbrayat, J.-F.; Gustafsson, D.; Hölzel, H.; Krauße, T.; Kraft, P.; Stoll, S.; Blöschl, G.; Flühler, H.

    2014-06-01

    In practice, the catchment hydrologist is often confronted with the task of predicting discharge without having the needed records for calibration. Here, we report the discharge predictions of 10 modellers - using the model of their choice - for the man-made Chicken Creek catchment (6 ha, northeast Germany, Gerwin et al., 2009b) and we analyse how well they improved their prediction in three steps based on adding information prior to each following step. The modellers predicted the catchment's hydrological response in its initial phase without having access to the observed records. They used conceptually different physically based models and their modelling experience differed largely. Hence, they encountered two problems: (i) to simulate discharge for an ungauged catchment and (ii) using models that were developed for catchments, which are not in a state of landscape transformation. The prediction exercise was organized in three steps: (1) for the first prediction the modellers received a basic data set describing the catchment to a degree somewhat more complete than usually available for a priori predictions of ungauged catchments; they did not obtain information on stream flow, soil moisture, nor groundwater response and had therefore to guess the initial conditions; (2) before the second prediction they inspected the catchment on-site and discussed their first prediction attempt; (3) for their third prediction they were offered additional data by charging them pro forma with the costs for obtaining this additional information. Holländer et al. (2009) discussed the range of predictions obtained in step (1). Here, we detail the modeller's assumptions and decisions in accounting for the various processes. We document the prediction progress as well as the learning process resulting from the availability of added information. For the second and third steps, the progress in prediction quality is evaluated in relation to individual modelling experience and costs of

  2. Adding propensity scores to pure prediction models fails to improve predictive performance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amy S. Nowacki

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Background. Propensity score usage seems to be growing in popularity leading researchers to question the possible role of propensity scores in prediction modeling, despite the lack of a theoretical rationale. It is suspected that such requests are due to the lack of differentiation regarding the goals of predictive modeling versus causal inference modeling. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to formally examine the effect of propensity scores on predictive performance. Our hypothesis is that a multivariable regression model that adjusts for all covariates will perform as well as or better than those models utilizing propensity scores with respect to model discrimination and calibration.Methods. The most commonly encountered statistical scenarios for medical prediction (logistic and proportional hazards regression were used to investigate this research question. Random cross-validation was performed 500 times to correct for optimism. The multivariable regression models adjusting for all covariates were compared with models that included adjustment for or weighting with the propensity scores. The methods were compared based on three predictive performance measures: (1 concordance indices; (2 Brier scores; and (3 calibration curves.Results. Multivariable models adjusting for all covariates had the highest average concordance index, the lowest average Brier score, and the best calibration. Propensity score adjustment and inverse probability weighting models without adjustment for all covariates performed worse than full models and failed to improve predictive performance with full covariate adjustment.Conclusion. Propensity score techniques did not improve prediction performance measures beyond multivariable adjustment. Propensity scores are not recommended if the analytical goal is pure prediction modeling.

  3. checkCIF/PLATON report Datablock: Sm

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Moiety formula C59 H45 N2 O6 Sm. Sm (C14 H12 N2) ... 4.0 Ratio. PLAT234_ALERT_4_C Large Hirshfeld Difference O4 -- C24 .. 0.16 Ang. ... outliers and unusual parameters, but every test has its limitations and alerts that are not important.

  4. NOx PREDICTION FOR FBC BOILERS USING EMPIRICAL MODELS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiří Štefanica

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Reliable prediction of NOx emissions can provide useful information for boiler design and fuel selection. Recently used kinetic prediction models for FBC boilers are overly complex and require large computing capacity. Even so, there are many uncertainties in the case of FBC boilers. An empirical modeling approach for NOx prediction has been used exclusively for PCC boilers. No reference is available for modifying this method for FBC conditions. This paper presents possible advantages of empirical modeling based prediction of NOx emissions for FBC boilers, together with a discussion of its limitations. Empirical models are reviewed, and are applied to operation data from FBC boilers used for combusting Czech lignite coal or coal-biomass mixtures. Modifications to the model are proposed in accordance with theoretical knowledge and prediction accuracy.

  5. Complex versus simple models: ion-channel cardiac toxicity prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mistry, Hitesh B

    2018-01-01

    There is growing interest in applying detailed mathematical models of the heart for ion-channel related cardiac toxicity prediction. However, a debate as to whether such complex models are required exists. Here an assessment in the predictive performance between two established large-scale biophysical cardiac models and a simple linear model B net was conducted. Three ion-channel data-sets were extracted from literature. Each compound was designated a cardiac risk category using two different classification schemes based on information within CredibleMeds. The predictive performance of each model within each data-set for each classification scheme was assessed via a leave-one-out cross validation. Overall the B net model performed equally as well as the leading cardiac models in two of the data-sets and outperformed both cardiac models on the latest. These results highlight the importance of benchmarking complex versus simple models but also encourage the development of simple models.

  6. Complex versus simple models: ion-channel cardiac toxicity prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hitesh B. Mistry

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available There is growing interest in applying detailed mathematical models of the heart for ion-channel related cardiac toxicity prediction. However, a debate as to whether such complex models are required exists. Here an assessment in the predictive performance between two established large-scale biophysical cardiac models and a simple linear model Bnet was conducted. Three ion-channel data-sets were extracted from literature. Each compound was designated a cardiac risk category using two different classification schemes based on information within CredibleMeds. The predictive performance of each model within each data-set for each classification scheme was assessed via a leave-one-out cross validation. Overall the Bnet model performed equally as well as the leading cardiac models in two of the data-sets and outperformed both cardiac models on the latest. These results highlight the importance of benchmarking complex versus simple models but also encourage the development of simple models.

  7. Fixed recurrence and slip models better predict earthquake behavior than the time- and slip-predictable models 1: repeating earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rubinstein, Justin L.; Ellsworth, William L.; Chen, Kate Huihsuan; Uchida, Naoki

    2012-01-01

    The behavior of individual events in repeating earthquake sequences in California, Taiwan and Japan is better predicted by a model with fixed inter-event time or fixed slip than it is by the time- and slip-predictable models for earthquake occurrence. Given that repeating earthquakes are highly regular in both inter-event time and seismic moment, the time- and slip-predictable models seem ideally suited to explain their behavior. Taken together with evidence from the companion manuscript that shows similar results for laboratory experiments we conclude that the short-term predictions of the time- and slip-predictable models should be rejected in favor of earthquake models that assume either fixed slip or fixed recurrence interval. This implies that the elastic rebound model underlying the time- and slip-predictable models offers no additional value in describing earthquake behavior in an event-to-event sense, but its value in a long-term sense cannot be determined. These models likely fail because they rely on assumptions that oversimplify the earthquake cycle. We note that the time and slip of these events is predicted quite well by fixed slip and fixed recurrence models, so in some sense they are time- and slip-predictable. While fixed recurrence and slip models better predict repeating earthquake behavior than the time- and slip-predictable models, we observe a correlation between slip and the preceding recurrence time for many repeating earthquake sequences in Parkfield, California. This correlation is not found in other regions, and the sequences with the correlative slip-predictable behavior are not distinguishable from nearby earthquake sequences that do not exhibit this behavior.

  8. [Application of ARIMA model on prediction of malaria incidence].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jing, Xia; Hua-Xun, Zhang; Wen, Lin; Su-Jian, Pei; Ling-Cong, Sun; Xiao-Rong, Dong; Mu-Min, Cao; Dong-Ni, Wu; Shunxiang, Cai

    2016-01-29

    To predict the incidence of local malaria of Hubei Province applying the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model (ARIMA). SPSS 13.0 software was applied to construct the ARIMA model based on the monthly local malaria incidence in Hubei Province from 2004 to 2009. The local malaria incidence data of 2010 were used for model validation and evaluation. The model of ARIMA (1, 1, 1) (1, 1, 0) 12 was tested as relatively the best optimal with the AIC of 76.085 and SBC of 84.395. All the actual incidence data were in the range of 95% CI of predicted value of the model. The prediction effect of the model was acceptable. The ARIMA model could effectively fit and predict the incidence of local malaria of Hubei Province.

  9. Mobility Modelling through Trajectory Decomposition and Prediction

    OpenAIRE

    Faghihi, Farbod

    2017-01-01

    The ubiquity of mobile devices with positioning sensors make it possible to derive user's location at any time. However, constantly sensing the position in order to track the user's movement is not feasible, either due to the unavailability of sensors, or computational and storage burdens. In this thesis, we present and evaluate a novel approach for efficiently tracking user's movement trajectories using decomposition and prediction of trajectories. We facilitate tracking by taking advantage ...

  10. Poisson Mixture Regression Models for Heart Disease Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erol, Hamza

    2016-01-01

    Early heart disease control can be achieved by high disease prediction and diagnosis efficiency. This paper focuses on the use of model based clustering techniques to predict and diagnose heart disease via Poisson mixture regression models. Analysis and application of Poisson mixture regression models is here addressed under two different classes: standard and concomitant variable mixture regression models. Results show that a two-component concomitant variable Poisson mixture regression model predicts heart disease better than both the standard Poisson mixture regression model and the ordinary general linear Poisson regression model due to its low Bayesian Information Criteria value. Furthermore, a Zero Inflated Poisson Mixture Regression model turned out to be the best model for heart prediction over all models as it both clusters individuals into high or low risk category and predicts rate to heart disease componentwise given clusters available. It is deduced that heart disease prediction can be effectively done by identifying the major risks componentwise using Poisson mixture regression model. PMID:27999611

  11. In vivo efficacy of SM-8668 (Sch 39304), a new oral triazole antifungal agent.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanio, T; Ichise, K; Nakajima, T; Okuda, T

    1990-06-01

    SM-8668 (Sch 39304) is a new oral antifungal agent which we evaluated in comparison with fluconazole in various fungal infection models. The prophylactic effect of SM-8668 was excellent against systemic candidiasis, aspergillosis, and cryptococcosis in mice. The 50% effective dose for SM-8668 was assessed at 10 days after infection and was 0.18, 3.7, and 5.9 mg/kg (body weight), respectively, for the above-mentioned fungal diseases. Fluconazole was about four times less effective than SM-8668 against systemic candidiasis and was only slightly effective at doses of 80 and 25 mg/kg against systemic aspergilosis and cryptococcosis, respectively. SM-8668 was also about four to eight times more active than fluconazole against vaginal candidiasis in rats and against dermatophytic infection in guinea pigs. In addition, topical SM-8668 was as effective as topical miconazole or tioconazole against skin mycosis in guinea pigs. After oral administration, SM-8668 showed a maximum concentration in serum similar to that of fluconazole in both mice and rats, but the elimination half-life and area under the serum concentration-time curve for SM-8668 were twice those for fluconazole.

  12. Predicting birth weight with conditionally linear transformation models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Möst, Lisa; Schmid, Matthias; Faschingbauer, Florian; Hothorn, Torsten

    2016-12-01

    Low and high birth weight (BW) are important risk factors for neonatal morbidity and mortality. Gynecologists must therefore accurately predict BW before delivery. Most prediction formulas for BW are based on prenatal ultrasound measurements carried out within one week prior to birth. Although successfully used in clinical practice, these formulas focus on point predictions of BW but do not systematically quantify uncertainty of the predictions, i.e. they result in estimates of the conditional mean of BW but do not deliver prediction intervals. To overcome this problem, we introduce conditionally linear transformation models (CLTMs) to predict BW. Instead of focusing only on the conditional mean, CLTMs model the whole conditional distribution function of BW given prenatal ultrasound parameters. Consequently, the CLTM approach delivers both point predictions of BW and fetus-specific prediction intervals. Prediction intervals constitute an easy-to-interpret measure of prediction accuracy and allow identification of fetuses subject to high prediction uncertainty. Using a data set of 8712 deliveries at the Perinatal Centre at the University Clinic Erlangen (Germany), we analyzed variants of CLTMs and compared them to standard linear regression estimation techniques used in the past and to quantile regression approaches. The best-performing CLTM variant was competitive with quantile regression and linear regression approaches in terms of conditional coverage and average length of the prediction intervals. We propose that CLTMs be used because they are able to account for possible heteroscedasticity, kurtosis, and skewness of the distribution of BWs. © The Author(s) 2014.

  13. Evaluation of Radioisotope Production Process of 153Sm and 153Sm-EDTMP Radiopharmaceuticals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kadarisman; Sri Hastini; Yayan Tahyan; Abidin; Dadang Hafid; Enny Lestari

    2007-01-01

    Experiments on the process of 153 Sm radioisotope and labeling of 153 Sm-EDTMP radiopharmaceuticals were carried out. This experiments included preparation of Sm 2 O 3 target, dissolution of post irradiation, determination of radioactivity concentration of 153 Sm radioisotope, radionuclide purity, EDTMP labeling, determination of radiochemical purity and pH. In these experiments the total radioactivity 153 Sm product is round about 2845.83 mCi to 36963.31 mCi, or with the radioactivity concentration between 474 mCi/ml to 6160.55 mCi/ml in the SmCl 3 solution form, each its volume is 6.0 ml, and the samarium content is 5.76 mg/ml, and the radionuclide purity of 153 Sm is 100 %. All of the 153 Sm- EDTMP radiopharmaceuticals product are fulfilled requirements the radioactivity concentration, Sm content, radiochemical purity and pH. The radioactivity concentration of 153 Sm-EDTMP radiopharmaceuticals is 37.50 mCi/ml (minimum) to 283.50 mCi/ml (highest). The pH 7.5 were 8 products, and the rest are pH 8.5. Radiochemical purity of 153 Sm-EDTMP are round about 90.00 % to 99.44 %. (author)

  14. Prediction of hourly solar radiation with multi-model framework

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu, Ji; Chan, Chee Keong

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: • A novel approach to predict solar radiation through the use of clustering paradigms. • Development of prediction models based on the intrinsic pattern observed in each cluster. • Prediction based on proper clustering and selection of model on current time provides better results than other methods. • Experiments were conducted on actual solar radiation data obtained from a weather station in Singapore. - Abstract: In this paper, a novel multi-model prediction framework for prediction of solar radiation is proposed. The framework started with the assumption that there are several patterns embedded in the solar radiation series. To extract the underlying pattern, the solar radiation series is first segmented into smaller subsequences, and the subsequences are further grouped into different clusters. For each cluster, an appropriate prediction model is trained. Hence a procedure for pattern identification is developed to identify the proper pattern that fits the current period. Based on this pattern, the corresponding prediction model is applied to obtain the prediction value. The prediction result of the proposed framework is then compared to other techniques. It is shown that the proposed framework provides superior performance as compared to others

  15. New neutron-rich isotope production in 154Sm+160Gd

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ning Wang

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Deep inelastic scattering in 154Sm+160Gd at energies above the Bass barrier is for the first time investigated with two different microscopic dynamics approaches: improved quantum molecular dynamics (ImQMD model and time dependent Hartree–Fock (TDHF theory. No fusion is observed from both models. The capture pocket disappears for this reaction due to strong Coulomb repulsion and the contact time of the di-nuclear system formed in head-on collisions is about 700 fm/c at an incident energy of 440 MeV. The isotope distribution of fragments in the deep inelastic scattering process is predicted with the simulations of the latest ImQMD-v2.2 model together with a statistical code (GEMINI for describing the secondary decay of fragments. More than 40 extremely neutron-rich unmeasured nuclei with 58≤Z≤76 are observed and the production cross sections are at the order of μb to mb. The multi-nucleon transfer reaction of Sm+Gd could be an alternative way to synthesize new neutron-rich lanthanides which are difficult to be produced with traditional fusion reactions or fission of actinides.

  16. Genomic prediction of complex human traits: relatedness, trait architecture and predictive meta-models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spiliopoulou, Athina; Nagy, Reka; Bermingham, Mairead L.; Huffman, Jennifer E.; Hayward, Caroline; Vitart, Veronique; Rudan, Igor; Campbell, Harry; Wright, Alan F.; Wilson, James F.; Pong-Wong, Ricardo; Agakov, Felix; Navarro, Pau; Haley, Chris S.

    2015-01-01

    We explore the prediction of individuals' phenotypes for complex traits using genomic data. We compare several widely used prediction models, including Ridge Regression, LASSO and Elastic Nets estimated from cohort data, and polygenic risk scores constructed using published summary statistics from genome-wide association meta-analyses (GWAMA). We evaluate the interplay between relatedness, trait architecture and optimal marker density, by predicting height, body mass index (BMI) and high-density lipoprotein level (HDL) in two data cohorts, originating from Croatia and Scotland. We empirically demonstrate that dense models are better when all genetic effects are small (height and BMI) and target individuals are related to the training samples, while sparse models predict better in unrelated individuals and when some effects have moderate size (HDL). For HDL sparse models achieved good across-cohort prediction, performing similarly to the GWAMA risk score and to models trained within the same cohort, which indicates that, for predicting traits with moderately sized effects, large sample sizes and familial structure become less important, though still potentially useful. Finally, we propose a novel ensemble of whole-genome predictors with GWAMA risk scores and demonstrate that the resulting meta-model achieves higher prediction accuracy than either model on its own. We conclude that although current genomic predictors are not accurate enough for diagnostic purposes, performance can be improved without requiring access to large-scale individual-level data. Our methodologically simple meta-model is a means of performing predictive meta-analysis for optimizing genomic predictions and can be easily extended to incorporate multiple population-level summary statistics or other domain knowledge. PMID:25918167

  17. Comparison on batch anaerobic digestion of five different livestock manures and prediction of biochemical methane potential (BMP) using different statistical models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kafle, Gopi Krishna; Chen, Lide

    2016-02-01

    There is a lack of literature reporting the methane potential of several livestock manures under the same anaerobic digestion conditions (same inoculum, temperature, time, and size of the digester). To the best of our knowledge, no previous study has reported biochemical methane potential (BMP) predicting models developed and evaluated by solely using at least five different livestock manure tests results. The goal of this study was to evaluate the BMP of five different livestock manures (dairy manure (DM), horse manure (HM), goat manure (GM), chicken manure (CM) and swine manure (SM)) and to predict the BMP using different statistical models. Nutrients of the digested different manures were also monitored. The BMP tests were conducted under mesophilic temperatures with a manure loading factor of 3.5g volatile solids (VS)/L and a feed to inoculum ratio (F/I) of 0.5. Single variable and multiple variable regression models were developed using manure total carbohydrate (TC), crude protein (CP), total fat (TF), lignin (LIG) and acid detergent fiber (ADF), and measured BMP data. Three different kinetic models (first order kinetic model, modified Gompertz model and Chen and Hashimoto model) were evaluated for BMP predictions. The BMPs of DM, HM, GM, CM and SM were measured to be 204, 155, 159, 259, and 323mL/g VS, respectively and the VS removals were calculated to be 58.6%, 52.9%, 46.4%, 81.4%, 81.4%, respectively. The technical digestion time (T80-90, time required to produce 80-90% of total biogas production) for DM, HM, GM, CM and SM was calculated to be in the ranges of 19-28, 27-37, 31-44, 13-18, 12-17days, respectively. The effluents from the HM showed the lowest nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium concentrations. The effluents from the CM digesters showed highest nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations and digested SM showed highest potassium concentration. Based on the results of the regression analysis, the model using the variable of LIG showed the best (R(2

  18. Model predictive control of a crude oil distillation column

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Morten Hovd

    1999-04-01

    Full Text Available The project of designing and implementing model based predictive control on the vacuum distillation column at the Nynäshamn Refinery of Nynäs AB is described in this paper. The paper describes in detail the modeling for the model based control, covers the controller implementation, and documents the benefits gained from the model based controller.

  19. A burnout prediction model based around char morphology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    T. Wu; E. Lester; M. Cloke [University of Nottingham, Nottingham (United Kingdom). Nottingham Energy and Fuel Centre

    2005-07-01

    Poor burnout in a coal-fired power plant has marked penalties in the form of reduced energy efficiency and elevated waste material that can not be utilized. The prediction of coal combustion behaviour in a furnace is of great significance in providing valuable information not only for process optimization but also for coal buyers in the international market. Coal combustion models have been developed that can make predictions about burnout behaviour and burnout potential. Most of these kinetic models require standard parameters such as volatile content, particle size and assumed char porosity in order to make a burnout prediction. This paper presents a new model called the Char Burnout Model (ChB) that also uses detailed information about char morphology in its prediction. The model can use data input from one of two sources. Both sources are derived from image analysis techniques. The first from individual analysis and characterization of real char types using an automated program. The second from predicted char types based on data collected during the automated image analysis of coal particles. Modelling results were compared with a different carbon burnout kinetic model and burnout data from re-firing the chars in a drop tube furnace operating at 1300{sup o}C, 5% oxygen across several residence times. An improved agreement between ChB model and DTF experimental data proved that the inclusion of char morphology in combustion models can improve model predictions. 27 refs., 4 figs., 4 tabs.

  20. Questioning the Faith - Models and Prediction in Stream Restoration (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilcock, P.

    2013-12-01

    River management and restoration demand prediction at and beyond our present ability. Management questions, framed appropriately, can motivate fundamental advances in science, although the connection between research and application is not always easy, useful, or robust. Why is that? This presentation considers the connection between models and management, a connection that requires critical and creative thought on both sides. Essential challenges for managers include clearly defining project objectives and accommodating uncertainty in any model prediction. Essential challenges for the research community include matching the appropriate model to project duration, space, funding, information, and social constraints and clearly presenting answers that are actually useful to managers. Better models do not lead to better management decisions or better designs if the predictions are not relevant to and accepted by managers. In fact, any prediction may be irrelevant if the need for prediction is not recognized. The predictive target must be developed in an active dialog between managers and modelers. This relationship, like any other, can take time to develop. For example, large segments of stream restoration practice have remained resistant to models and prediction because the foundational tenet - that channels built to a certain template will be able to transport the supplied sediment with the available flow - has no essential physical connection between cause and effect. Stream restoration practice can be steered in a predictive direction in which project objectives are defined as predictable attributes and testable hypotheses. If stream restoration design is defined in terms of the desired performance of the channel (static or dynamic, sediment surplus or deficit), then channel properties that provide these attributes can be predicted and a basis exists for testing approximations, models, and predictions.

  1. Predicting Magazine Audiences with a Loglinear Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1987-07-01

    TITLE (InciudeSecuirty Clauificalson, Predicting !iagaz:ine Atidiences with a Loglinvar \\lode] * 12. PERSONAL AUTHOR(S) * Peter J.1 .:)anahel 1 3&. TYPE...important use of e.d. estimates is in media selection ( Aaker 1975; Lee 1962, 1963; Little and Lodish 1969). All advertising campaigns have a budget. It...BBD we obtain the modified BBD (MBBD). Let X be the number of exposures a person has to k insertions in a single magazine. The mass function of the

  2. Structure of smAKAP and its regulation by PKA-mediated phosphorylation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burgers, Pepijn P.; Bruystens, Jessica; Burnley, Rebecca J.; Nikolaev, Viacheslav O.; Keshwani, Malik; Wu, Jian; Janssen, Bert J. C.; Taylor, Susan S.; Heck, Albert J. R.; Scholten, Arjen

    2016-01-01

    The A-kinase anchoring protein (AKAP) smAKAP has three extraordinary features; it is very small, it is anchored directly to membranes by acyl motifs, and it interacts almost exclusively with the type I regulatory subunits (RI) of cAMP-dependent kinase (PKA). Here, we determined the crystal structure of smAKAP’s A-kinase binding domain (smAKAP-AKB) in complex with the dimerization/docking (D/D) domain of RIα which reveals an extended hydrophobic interface with unique interaction pockets that drive smAKAP’s high specificity for RI subunits. We also identify a conserved PKA phosphorylation site at Ser66 in the AKB domain which we predict would cause steric clashes and disrupt binding. This correlates with in vivo colocalization and fluorescence polarization studies, where Ser66 AKB phosphorylation ablates RI binding. Hydrogen/deuterium exchange studies confirm that the AKB helix is accessible and dynamic. Furthermore, full-length smAKAP as well as the unbound AKB is predicted to contain a break at the phosphorylation site, and circular dichroism measurements confirm that the AKB domain loses its helicity following phosphorylation. As the active site of PKA’s catalytic subunit does not accommodate α-helices, we predict that the inherent flexibility of the AKB domain enables its phosphorylation by PKA. This represents a novel mechanism, whereby activation of anchored PKA can terminate its binding to smAKAP affecting the regulation of localized cAMP signaling events. PMID:27028580

  3. Predicting and Modelling of Survival Data when Cox's Regression Model does not hold

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Scheike, Thomas H.; Zhang, Mei-Jie

    2002-01-01

    Aalen model; additive risk model; counting processes; competing risk; Cox regression; flexible modeling; goodness of fit; prediction of survival; survival analysis; time-varying effects......Aalen model; additive risk model; counting processes; competing risk; Cox regression; flexible modeling; goodness of fit; prediction of survival; survival analysis; time-varying effects...

  4. Predicting Error Bars for QSAR Models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schroeter, Timon; Schwaighofer, Anton; Mika, Sebastian; Ter Laak, Antonius; Suelzle, Detlev; Ganzer, Ursula; Heinrich, Nikolaus; Mueller, Klaus-Robert

    2007-01-01

    Unfavorable physicochemical properties often cause drug failures. It is therefore important to take lipophilicity and water solubility into account early on in lead discovery. This study presents log D 7 models built using Gaussian Process regression, Support Vector Machines, decision trees and ridge regression algorithms based on 14556 drug discovery compounds of Bayer Schering Pharma. A blind test was conducted using 7013 new measurements from the last months. We also present independent evaluations using public data. Apart from accuracy, we discuss the quality of error bars that can be computed by Gaussian Process models, and ensemble and distance based techniques for the other modelling approaches

  5. Prediction models for successful external cephalic version: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Velzel, Joost; de Hundt, Marcella; Mulder, Frederique M; Molkenboer, Jan F M; Van der Post, Joris A M; Mol, Ben W; Kok, Marjolein

    2015-12-01

    To provide an overview of existing prediction models for successful ECV, and to assess their quality, development and performance. We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE and the Cochrane Library to identify all articles reporting on prediction models for successful ECV published from inception to January 2015. We extracted information on study design, sample size, model-building strategies and validation. We evaluated the phases of model development and summarized their performance in terms of discrimination, calibration and clinical usefulness. We collected different predictor variables together with their defined significance, in order to identify important predictor variables for successful ECV. We identified eight articles reporting on seven prediction models. All models were subjected to internal validation. Only one model was also validated in an external cohort. Two prediction models had a low overall risk of bias, of which only one showed promising predictive performance at internal validation. This model also completed the phase of external validation. For none of the models their impact on clinical practice was evaluated. The most important predictor variables for successful ECV described in the selected articles were parity, placental location, breech engagement and the fetal head being palpable. One model was assessed using discrimination and calibration using internal (AUC 0.71) and external validation (AUC 0.64), while two other models were assessed with discrimination and calibration, respectively. We found one prediction model for breech presentation that was validated in an external cohort and had acceptable predictive performance. This model should be used to council women considering ECV. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

  6. Risk Prediction Model for Severe Postoperative Complication in Bariatric Surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stenberg, Erik; Cao, Yang; Szabo, Eva; Näslund, Erik; Näslund, Ingmar; Ottosson, Johan

    2018-01-12

    Factors associated with risk for adverse outcome are important considerations in the preoperative assessment of patients for bariatric surgery. As yet, prediction models based on preoperative risk factors have not been able to predict adverse outcome sufficiently. This study aimed to identify preoperative risk factors and to construct a risk prediction model based on these. Patients who underwent a bariatric surgical procedure in Sweden between 2010 and 2014 were identified from the Scandinavian Obesity Surgery Registry (SOReg). Associations between preoperative potential risk factors and severe postoperative complications were analysed using a logistic regression model. A multivariate model for risk prediction was created and validated in the SOReg for patients who underwent bariatric surgery in Sweden, 2015. Revision surgery (standardized OR 1.19, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.14-0.24, p prediction model. Despite high specificity, the sensitivity of the model was low. Revision surgery, high age, low BMI, large waist circumference, and dyspepsia/GERD were associated with an increased risk for severe postoperative complication. The prediction model based on these factors, however, had a sensitivity that was too low to predict risk in the individual patient case.

  7. AN EFFICIENT PATIENT INFLOW PREDICTION MODEL FOR HOSPITAL RESOURCE MANAGEMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kottalanka Srikanth

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available There has been increasing demand in improving service provisioning in hospital resources management. Hospital industries work with strict budget constraint at the same time assures quality care. To achieve quality care with budget constraint an efficient prediction model is required. Recently there has been various time series based prediction model has been proposed to manage hospital resources such ambulance monitoring, emergency care and so on. These models are not efficient as they do not consider the nature of scenario such climate condition etc. To address this artificial intelligence is adopted. The issues with existing prediction are that the training suffers from local optima error. This induces overhead and affects the accuracy in prediction. To overcome the local minima error, this work presents a patient inflow prediction model by adopting resilient backpropagation neural network. Experiment are conducted to evaluate the performance of proposed model inter of RMSE and MAPE. The outcome shows the proposed model reduces RMSE and MAPE over existing back propagation based artificial neural network. The overall outcomes show the proposed prediction model improves the accuracy of prediction which aid in improving the quality of health care management.

  8. Prediction Model for Gastric Cancer Incidence in Korean Population.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bang Wool Eom

    Full Text Available Predicting high risk groups for gastric cancer and motivating these groups to receive regular checkups is required for the early detection of gastric cancer. The aim of this study is was to develop a prediction model for gastric cancer incidence based on a large population-based cohort in Korea.Based on the National Health Insurance Corporation data, we analyzed 10 major risk factors for gastric cancer. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to develop gender specific prediction models for gastric cancer development, and the performance of the developed model in terms of discrimination and calibration was also validated using an independent cohort. Discrimination ability was evaluated using Harrell's C-statistics, and the calibration was evaluated using a calibration plot and slope.During a median of 11.4 years of follow-up, 19,465 (1.4% and 5,579 (0.7% newly developed gastric cancer cases were observed among 1,372,424 men and 804,077 women, respectively. The prediction models included age, BMI, family history, meal regularity, salt preference, alcohol consumption, smoking and physical activity for men, and age, BMI, family history, salt preference, alcohol consumption, and smoking for women. This prediction model showed good accuracy and predictability in both the developing and validation cohorts (C-statistics: 0.764 for men, 0.706 for women.In this study, a prediction model for gastric cancer incidence was developed that displayed a good performance.

  9. Stage-specific predictive models for breast cancer survivability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kate, Rohit J; Nadig, Ramya

    2017-01-01

    Survivability rates vary widely among various stages of breast cancer. Although machine learning models built in past to predict breast cancer survivability were given stage as one of the features, they were not trained or evaluated separately for each stage. To investigate whether there are differences in performance of machine learning models trained and evaluated across different stages for predicting breast cancer survivability. Using three different machine learning methods we built models to predict breast cancer survivability separately for each stage and compared them with the traditional joint models built for all the stages. We also evaluated the models separately for each stage and together for all the stages. Our results show that the most suitable model to predict survivability for a specific stage is the model trained for that particular stage. In our experiments, using additional examples of other stages during training did not help, in fact, it made it worse in some cases. The most important features for predicting survivability were also found to be different for different stages. By evaluating the models separately on different stages we found that the performance widely varied across them. We also demonstrate that evaluating predictive models for survivability on all the stages together, as was done in the past, is misleading because it overestimates performance. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Predictive modeling of pedestal structure in KSTAR using EPED model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Han, Hyunsun; Kim, J. Y. [National Fusion Research Institute, Daejeon 305-806 (Korea, Republic of); Kwon, Ohjin [Department of Physics, Daegu University, Gyeongbuk 712-714 (Korea, Republic of)

    2013-10-15

    A predictive calculation is given for the structure of edge pedestal in the H-mode plasma of the KSTAR (Korea Superconducting Tokamak Advanced Research) device using the EPED model. Particularly, the dependence of pedestal width and height on various plasma parameters is studied in detail. The two codes, ELITE and HELENA, are utilized for the stability analysis of the peeling-ballooning and kinetic ballooning modes, respectively. Summarizing the main results, the pedestal slope and height have a strong dependence on plasma current, rapidly increasing with it, while the pedestal width is almost independent of it. The plasma density or collisionality gives initially a mild stabilization, increasing the pedestal slope and height, but above some threshold value its effect turns to a destabilization, reducing the pedestal width and height. Among several plasma shape parameters, the triangularity gives the most dominant effect, rapidly increasing the pedestal width and height, while the effect of elongation and squareness appears to be relatively weak. Implication of these edge results, particularly in relation to the global plasma performance, is discussed.

  11. Model predictions for auxiliary heating in spheromaks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fauler, T.K.; Khua, D.D.

    1997-01-01

    Calculations are presented of the plasma temperature waited for under auxiliary heating in spheromaks. A model, ensuring good agreement of earlier experiments with joule heating results, is used. The model includes heat losses due to magnetic fluctuations and shows that the plasma temperatures of the kilo-electron-volt order may be achieved in a small device with the radius of 0.3 m only

  12. Validating predictions from climate envelope models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James I Watling

    Full Text Available Climate envelope models are a potentially important conservation tool, but their ability to accurately forecast species' distributional shifts using independent survey data has not been fully evaluated. We created climate envelope models for 12 species of North American breeding birds previously shown to have experienced poleward range shifts. For each species, we evaluated three different approaches to climate envelope modeling that differed in the way they treated climate-induced range expansion and contraction, using random forests and maximum entropy modeling algorithms. All models were calibrated using occurrence data from 1967-1971 (t1 and evaluated using occurrence data from 1998-2002 (t2. Model sensitivity (the ability to correctly classify species presences was greater using the maximum entropy algorithm than the random forest algorithm. Although sensitivity did not differ significantly among approaches, for many species, sensitivity was maximized using a hybrid approach that assumed range expansion, but not contraction, in t2. Species for which the hybrid approach resulted in the greatest improvement in sensitivity have been reported from more land cover types than species for which there was little difference in sensitivity between hybrid and dynamic approaches, suggesting that habitat generalists may be buffered somewhat against climate-induced range contractions. Specificity (the ability to correctly classify species absences was maximized using the random forest algorithm and was lowest using the hybrid approach. Overall, our results suggest cautious optimism for the use of climate envelope models to forecast range shifts, but also underscore the importance of considering non-climate drivers of species range limits. The use of alternative climate envelope models that make different assumptions about range expansion and contraction is a new and potentially useful way to help inform our understanding of climate change effects on

  13. Validating predictions from climate envelope models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watling, J.; Bucklin, D.; Speroterra, C.; Brandt, L.; Cabal, C.; Romañach, Stephanie S.; Mazzotti, Frank J.

    2013-01-01

    Climate envelope models are a potentially important conservation tool, but their ability to accurately forecast species’ distributional shifts using independent survey data has not been fully evaluated. We created climate envelope models for 12 species of North American breeding birds previously shown to have experienced poleward range shifts. For each species, we evaluated three different approaches to climate envelope modeling that differed in the way they treated climate-induced range expansion and contraction, using random forests and maximum entropy modeling algorithms. All models were calibrated using occurrence data from 1967–1971 (t1) and evaluated using occurrence data from 1998–2002 (t2). Model sensitivity (the ability to correctly classify species presences) was greater using the maximum entropy algorithm than the random forest algorithm. Although sensitivity did not differ significantly among approaches, for many species, sensitivity was maximized using a hybrid approach that assumed range expansion, but not contraction, in t2. Species for which the hybrid approach resulted in the greatest improvement in sensitivity have been reported from more land cover types than species for which there was little difference in sensitivity between hybrid and dynamic approaches, suggesting that habitat generalists may be buffered somewhat against climate-induced range contractions. Specificity (the ability to correctly classify species absences) was maximized using the random forest algorithm and was lowest using the hybrid approach. Overall, our results suggest cautious optimism for the use of climate envelope models to forecast range shifts, but also underscore the importance of considering non-climate drivers of species range limits. The use of alternative climate envelope models that make different assumptions about range expansion and contraction is a new and potentially useful way to help inform our understanding of climate change effects on species.

  14. Morphological stability of Sm123 superconductor during peritectic solidification from Sm211 + L mixture

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sumida, Masaki; Shiohara, Yuh; Umeda, Takateru

    2000-01-01

    The interface stability of the Sm 123 superconductor was analyzed in accordance with the constitutional undercooling criterion. As the single-crystal growth of the 123 phase is largely dependent on the growth-interface stability, a quantitative analysis was very much required. From this analysis, it was clarified that the constitutional undercooling must exist in the liquid when the 123 growth interface comes close to a 211 particle during the peritectic solidification. It was also predicted that the larger 211 particle radius, smaller volume fraction of the 211 particles, larger growth rate, or smaller imposed temperature gradient would cause easy occurrence of the constitutional undercooling ahead of the 123 growth interface. Taking into account the nucleation at the L/211 interface just ahead of the 123 growth front due to the constitutional undercooling, the transition of 123 growth from a planar-interface morphology to an equiaxed blocky morphology was investigated quantitatively and qualitatively

  15. Evaluation of wave runup predictions from numerical and parametric models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stockdon, Hilary F.; Thompson, David M.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Long, Joseph W.

    2014-01-01

    Wave runup during storms is a primary driver of coastal evolution, including shoreline and dune erosion and barrier island overwash. Runup and its components, setup and swash, can be predicted from a parameterized model that was developed by comparing runup observations to offshore wave height, wave period, and local beach slope. Because observations during extreme storms are often unavailable, a numerical model is used to simulate the storm-driven runup to compare to the parameterized model and then develop an approach to improve the accuracy of the parameterization. Numerically simulated and parameterized runup were compared to observations to evaluate model accuracies. The analysis demonstrated that setup was accurately predicted by both the parameterized model and numerical simulations. Infragravity swash heights were most accurately predicted by the parameterized model. The numerical model suffered from bias and gain errors that depended on whether a one-dimensional or two-dimensional spatial domain was used. Nonetheless, all of the predictions were significantly correlated to the observations, implying that the systematic errors can be corrected. The numerical simulations did not resolve the incident-band swash motions, as expected, and the parameterized model performed best at predicting incident-band swash heights. An assimilated prediction using a weighted average of the parameterized model and the numerical simulations resulted in a reduction in prediction error variance. Finally, the numerical simulations were extended to include storm conditions that have not been previously observed. These results indicated that the parameterized predictions of setup may need modification for extreme conditions; numerical simulations can be used to extend the validity of the parameterized predictions of infragravity swash; and numerical simulations systematically underpredict incident swash, which is relatively unimportant under extreme conditions.

  16. A neighborhood statistics model for predicting stream pathogen indicator levels.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pandey, Pramod K; Pasternack, Gregory B; Majumder, Mahbubul; Soupir, Michelle L; Kaiser, Mark S

    2015-03-01

    Because elevated levels of water-borne Escherichia coli in streams are a leading cause of water quality impairments in the U.S., water-quality managers need tools for predicting aqueous E. coli levels. Presently, E. coli levels may be predicted using complex mechanistic models that have a high degree of unchecked uncertainty or simpler statistical models. To assess spatio-temporal patterns of instream E. coli levels, herein we measured E. coli, a pathogen indicator, at 16 sites (at four different times) within the Squaw Creek watershed, Iowa, and subsequently, the Markov Random Field model was exploited to develop a neighborhood statistics model for predicting instream E. coli levels. Two observed covariates, local water temperature (degrees Celsius) and mean cross-sectional depth (meters), were used as inputs to the model. Predictions of E. coli levels in the water column were compared with independent observational data collected from 16 in-stream locations. The results revealed that spatio-temporal averages of predicted and observed E. coli levels were extremely close. Approximately 66 % of individual predicted E. coli concentrations were within a factor of 2 of the observed values. In only one event, the difference between prediction and observation was beyond one order of magnitude. The mean of all predicted values at 16 locations was approximately 1 % higher than the mean of the observed values. The approach presented here will be useful while assessing instream contaminations such as pathogen/pathogen indicator levels at the watershed scale.

  17. The QCD/SM working group: Summary report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Giele, W.

    2004-01-01

    Quantum Chromo-Dynamics (QCD), and more generally the physics of the Standard Model (SM), enter in many ways in high energy processes at TeV Colliders, and especially in hadron colliders (the Tevatron at Fermilab and the forthcoming LHC at CERN), First of all, at hadron colliders, QCD controls the parton luminosity, which rules the production rates of any particle or system with large invariant mass and/or large transverse momentum. Accurate predictions for any signal of possible ''New Physics'' sought at hadron colliders, as well as the corresponding backgrounds, require an improvement in the control of uncertainties on the determination of PDF and of the propagation of these uncertainties in the predictions. Furthermore, to fully exploit these new types of PDF with uncertainties, uniform tools (computer interfaces, standardization of the PDF evolution codes used by the various groups fitting PDF's) need to be proposed and developed. The dynamics of colour also affects, both in normalization and shape, various observables of the signals of any possible ''New Physics'' sought at the TeV scale, such as, e.g. the production rate, or the distributions in transverse momentum of the Higgs boson. Last, but not least, QCD governs many backgrounds to the searches for this ''New Physics''. Large and important QCD corrections may come from extra hard parton emission (and the corresponding virtual corrections), involving multi-leg and/or multi-loop amplitudes. This requires complex higher order calculations, and new methods have to be designed to compute the required multi-legs and/or multi-loop corrections in a tractable form. In the case of semi-inclusive observables, logarithmically enhanced contributions coming from multiple soft and collinear gluon emission require sophisticated QCD resummation techniques. Resummation is a catch-all name for efforts to extend the predictive power of QCD by summing the large logarithmic corrections to all orders in perturbation theory. In

  18. The QCD/SM working group: Summary report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    W. Giele et al.

    2004-01-12

    Quantum Chromo-Dynamics (QCD), and more generally the physics of the Standard Model (SM), enter in many ways in high energy processes at TeV Colliders, and especially in hadron colliders (the Tevatron at Fermilab and the forthcoming LHC at CERN), First of all, at hadron colliders, QCD controls the parton luminosity, which rules the production rates of any particle or system with large invariant mass and/or large transverse momentum. Accurate predictions for any signal of possible ''New Physics'' sought at hadron colliders, as well as the corresponding backgrounds, require an improvement in the control of uncertainties on the determination of PDF and of the propagation of these uncertainties in the predictions. Furthermore, to fully exploit these new types of PDF with uncertainties, uniform tools (computer interfaces, standardization of the PDF evolution codes used by the various groups fitting PDF's) need to be proposed and developed. The dynamics of colour also affects, both in normalization and shape, various observables of the signals of any possible ''New Physics'' sought at the TeV scale, such as, e.g. the production rate, or the distributions in transverse momentum of the Higgs boson. Last, but not least, QCD governs many backgrounds to the searches for this ''New Physics''. Large and important QCD corrections may come from extra hard parton emission (and the corresponding virtual corrections), involving multi-leg and/or multi-loop amplitudes. This requires complex higher order calculations, and new methods have to be designed to compute the required multi-legs and/or multi-loop corrections in a tractable form. In the case of semi-inclusive observables, logarithmically enhanced contributions coming from multiple soft and collinear gluon emission require sophisticated QCD resummation techniques. Resummation is a catch-all name for efforts to extend the predictive power of QCD by summing the large

  19. Prediction skill of rainstorm events over India in the TIGGE weather prediction models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karuna Sagar, S.; Rajeevan, M.; Vijaya Bhaskara Rao, S.; Mitra, A. K.

    2017-12-01

    Extreme rainfall events pose a serious threat of leading to severe floods in many countries worldwide. Therefore, advance prediction of its occurrence and spatial distribution is very essential. In this paper, an analysis has been made to assess the skill of numerical weather prediction models in predicting rainstorms over India. Using gridded daily rainfall data set and objective criteria, 15 rainstorms were identified during the monsoon season (June to September). The analysis was made using three TIGGE (THe Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Interactive Grand Global Ensemble) models. The models considered are the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and the UK Met Office (UKMO). Verification of the TIGGE models for 43 observed rainstorm days from 15 rainstorm events has been made for the period 2007-2015. The comparison reveals that rainstorm events are predictable up to 5 days in advance, however with a bias in spatial distribution and intensity. The statistical parameters like mean error (ME) or Bias, root mean square error (RMSE) and correlation coefficient (CC) have been computed over the rainstorm region using the multi-model ensemble (MME) mean. The study reveals that the spread is large in ECMWF and UKMO followed by the NCEP model. Though the ensemble spread is quite small in NCEP, the ensemble member averages are not well predicted. The rank histograms suggest that the forecasts are under prediction. The modified Contiguous Rain Area (CRA) technique was used to verify the spatial as well as the quantitative skill of the TIGGE models. Overall, the contribution from the displacement and pattern errors to the total RMSE is found to be more in magnitude. The volume error increases from 24 hr forecast to 48 hr forecast in all the three models.

  20. Preclinical models used for immunogenicity prediction of therapeutic proteins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brinks, Vera; Weinbuch, Daniel; Baker, Matthew; Dean, Yann; Stas, Philippe; Kostense, Stefan; Rup, Bonita; Jiskoot, Wim

    2013-07-01

    All therapeutic proteins are potentially immunogenic. Antibodies formed against these drugs can decrease efficacy, leading to drastically increased therapeutic costs and in rare cases to serious and sometimes life threatening side-effects. Many efforts are therefore undertaken to develop therapeutic proteins with minimal immunogenicity. For this, immunogenicity prediction of candidate drugs during early drug development is essential. Several in silico, in vitro and in vivo models are used to predict immunogenicity of drug leads, to modify potentially immunogenic properties and to continue development of drug candidates with expected low immunogenicity. Despite the extensive use of these predictive models, their actual predictive value varies. Important reasons for this uncertainty are the limited/insufficient knowledge on the immune mechanisms underlying immunogenicity of therapeutic proteins, the fact that different predictive models explore different components of the immune system and the lack of an integrated clinical validation. In this review, we discuss the predictive models in use, summarize aspects of immunogenicity that these models predict and explore the merits and the limitations of each of the models.

  1. Development of Interpretable Predictive Models for BPH and Prostate Cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bermejo, Pablo; Vivo, Alicia; Tárraga, Pedro J; Rodríguez-Montes, J A

    2015-01-01

    Traditional methods for deciding whether to recommend a patient for a prostate biopsy are based on cut-off levels of stand-alone markers such as prostate-specific antigen (PSA) or any of its derivatives. However, in the last decade we have seen the increasing use of predictive models that combine, in a non-linear manner, several predictives that are better able to predict prostate cancer (PC), but these fail to help the clinician to distinguish between PC and benign prostate hyperplasia (BPH) patients. We construct two new models that are capable of predicting both PC and BPH. An observational study was performed on 150 patients with PSA ≥3 ng/mL and age >50 years. We built a decision tree and a logistic regression model, validated with the leave-one-out methodology, in order to predict PC or BPH, or reject both. Statistical dependence with PC and BPH was found for prostate volume (P-value BPH prediction. PSA and volume together help to build predictive models that accurately distinguish among PC, BPH, and patients without any of these pathologies. Our decision tree and logistic regression models outperform the AUC obtained in the compared studies. Using these models as decision support, the number of unnecessary biopsies might be significantly reduced.

  2. Predicting Footbridge Response using Stochastic Load Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Lars; Frier, Christian

    2013-01-01

    Walking parameters such as step frequency, pedestrian mass, dynamic load factor, etc. are basically stochastic, although it is quite common to adapt deterministic models for these parameters. The present paper considers a stochastic approach to modeling the action of pedestrians, but when doing so...... decisions need to be made in terms of statistical distributions of walking parameters and in terms of the parameters describing the statistical distributions. The paper explores how sensitive computations of bridge response are to some of the decisions to be made in this respect. This is useful...

  3. A COMPARISON BETWEEN THREE PREDICTIVE MODELS OF COMPUTATIONAL INTELLIGENCE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    DUMITRU CIOBANU

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Time series prediction is an open problem and many researchers are trying to find new predictive methods and improvements for the existing ones. Lately methods based on neural networks are used extensively for time series prediction. Also, support vector machines have solved some of the problems faced by neural networks and they began to be widely used for time series prediction. The main drawback of those two methods is that they are global models and in the case of a chaotic time series it is unlikely to find such model. In this paper it is presented a comparison between three predictive from computational intelligence field one based on neural networks one based on support vector machine and another based on chaos theory. We show that the model based on chaos theory is an alternative to the other two methods.

  4. Predicting Market Impact Costs Using Nonparametric Machine Learning Models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saerom Park

    Full Text Available Market impact cost is the most significant portion of implicit transaction costs that can reduce the overall transaction cost, although it cannot be measured directly. In this paper, we employed the state-of-the-art nonparametric machine learning models: neural networks, Bayesian neural network, Gaussian process, and support vector regression, to predict market impact cost accurately and to provide the predictive model that is versatile in the number of variables. We collected a large amount of real single transaction data of US stock market from Bloomberg Terminal and generated three independent input variables. As a result, most nonparametric machine learning models outperformed a-state-of-the-art benchmark parametric model such as I-star model in four error measures. Although these models encounter certain difficulties in separating the permanent and temporary cost directly, nonparametric machine learning models can be good alternatives in reducing transaction costs by considerably improving in prediction performance.

  5. Predicting Market Impact Costs Using Nonparametric Machine Learning Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Saerom; Lee, Jaewook; Son, Youngdoo

    2016-01-01

    Market impact cost is the most significant portion of implicit transaction costs that can reduce the overall transaction cost, although it cannot be measured directly. In this paper, we employed the state-of-the-art nonparametric machine learning models: neural networks, Bayesian neural network, Gaussian process, and support vector regression, to predict market impact cost accurately and to provide the predictive model that is versatile in the number of variables. We collected a large amount of real single transaction data of US stock market from Bloomberg Terminal and generated three independent input variables. As a result, most nonparametric machine learning models outperformed a-state-of-the-art benchmark parametric model such as I-star model in four error measures. Although these models encounter certain difficulties in separating the permanent and temporary cost directly, nonparametric machine learning models can be good alternatives in reducing transaction costs by considerably improving in prediction performance.

  6. A burnout prediction model based around char morphology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tao Wu; Edward Lester; Michael Cloke [University of Nottingham, Nottingham (United Kingdom). School of Chemical, Environmental and Mining Engineering

    2006-05-15

    Several combustion models have been developed that can make predictions about coal burnout and burnout potential. Most of these kinetic models require standard parameters such as volatile content and particle size to make a burnout prediction. This article presents a new model called the char burnout (ChB) model, which also uses detailed information about char morphology in its prediction. The input data to the model is based on information derived from two different image analysis techniques. One technique generates characterization data from real char samples, and the other predicts char types based on characterization data from image analysis of coal particles. The pyrolyzed chars in this study were created in a drop tube furnace operating at 1300{sup o}C, 200 ms, and 1% oxygen. Modeling results were compared with a different carbon burnout kinetic model as well as the actual burnout data from refiring the same chars in a drop tube furnace operating at 1300{sup o}C, 5% oxygen, and residence times of 200, 400, and 600 ms. A good agreement between ChB model and experimental data indicates that the inclusion of char morphology in combustion models could well improve model predictions. 38 refs., 5 figs., 6 tabs.

  7. Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort Modeling and Prediction - BAMP

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Volker J. Schmid

    2007-10-01

    Full Text Available The software package BAMP provides a method of analyzing incidence or mortality data on the Lexis diagram, using a Bayesian version of an age-period-cohort model. A hierarchical model is assumed with a binomial model in the first-stage. As smoothing priors for the age, period and cohort parameters random walks of first and second order, with and without an additional unstructured component are available. Unstructured heterogeneity can also be included in the model. In order to evaluate the model fit, posterior deviance, DIC and predictive deviances are computed. By projecting the random walk prior into the future, future death rates can be predicted.

  8. Modeling for prediction of restrained shrinkage effect in concrete repair

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yuan Yingshu; Li Guo; Cai Yue

    2003-01-01

    A general model of autogenous shrinkage caused by chemical reaction (chemical shrinkage) is developed by means of Arrhenius' law and a degree of chemical reaction. Models of tensile creep and relaxation modulus are built based on a viscoelastic, three-element model. Tests of free shrinkage and tensile creep were carried out to determine some coefficients in the models. Two-dimensional FEM analysis based on the models and other constitutions can predict the development of tensile strength and cracking. Three groups of patch-repaired beams were designed for analysis and testing. The prediction from the analysis shows agreement with the test results. The cracking mechanism after repair is discussed

  9. Evaluation of two models for predicting elemental accumulation by arthropods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Webster, J.R.; Crossley, D.A. Jr.

    1978-01-01

    Two different models have been proposed for predicting elemental accumulation by arthropods. Parameters of both models can be quantified from radioisotope elimination experiments. Our analysis of the 2 models shows that both predict identical elemental accumulation for a whole organism, though differing in the accumulation in body and gut. We quantified both models with experimental data from 134 Cs and 85 Sr elimination by crickets. Computer simulations of radioisotope accumulation were then compared with actual accumulation experiments. Neither model showed exact fit to the experimental data, though both showed the general pattern of elemental accumulation

  10. Uncertainties in model-based outcome predictions for treatment planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Deasy, Joseph O.; Chao, K.S. Clifford; Markman, Jerry

    2001-01-01

    Purpose: Model-based treatment-plan-specific outcome predictions (such as normal tissue complication probability [NTCP] or the relative reduction in salivary function) are typically presented without reference to underlying uncertainties. We provide a method to assess the reliability of treatment-plan-specific dose-volume outcome model predictions. Methods and Materials: A practical method is proposed for evaluating model prediction based on the original input data together with bootstrap-based estimates of parameter uncertainties. The general framework is applicable to continuous variable predictions (e.g., prediction of long-term salivary function) and dichotomous variable predictions (e.g., tumor control probability [TCP] or NTCP). Using bootstrap resampling, a histogram of the likelihood of alternative parameter values is generated. For a given patient and treatment plan we generate a histogram of alternative model results by computing the model predicted outcome for each parameter set in the bootstrap list. Residual uncertainty ('noise') is accounted for by adding a random component to the computed outcome values. The residual noise distribution is estimated from the original fit between model predictions and patient data. Results: The method is demonstrated using a continuous-endpoint model to predict long-term salivary function for head-and-neck cancer patients. Histograms represent the probabilities for the level of posttreatment salivary function based on the input clinical data, the salivary function model, and the three-dimensional dose distribution. For some patients there is significant uncertainty in the prediction of xerostomia, whereas for other patients the predictions are expected to be more reliable. In contrast, TCP and NTCP endpoints are dichotomous, and parameter uncertainties should be folded directly into the estimated probabilities, thereby improving the accuracy of the estimates. Using bootstrap parameter estimates, competing treatment

  11. Geospatial application of the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    D. C. Flanagan; J. R. Frankenberger; T. A. Cochrane; C. S. Renschler; W. J. Elliot

    2011-01-01

    The Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) model is a process-based technology for prediction of soil erosion by water at hillslope profile, field, and small watershed scales. In particular, WEPP utilizes observed or generated daily climate inputs to drive the surface hydrology processes (infiltration, runoff, ET) component, which subsequently impacts the rest of the...

  12. Techniques for discrimination-free predictive models (Chapter 12)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kamiran, F.; Calders, T.G.K.; Pechenizkiy, M.; Custers, B.H.M.; Calders, T.G.K.; Schermer, B.W.; Zarsky, T.Z.

    2013-01-01

    In this chapter, we give an overview of the techniques developed ourselves for constructing discrimination-free classifiers. In discrimination-free classification the goal is to learn a predictive model that classifies future data objects as accurately as possible, yet the predicted labels should be

  13. A model to predict the beginning of the pollen season

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Toldam-Andersen, Torben Bo

    1991-01-01

    for fruit trees are generally applicable, and give a reasonable description of the growth processes of other trees. This type of model can therefore be of value in predicting the start of the pollen season. The predicted dates were generally within 3-5 days of the observed. Finally the possibility of frost...

  14. Statistical models to predict flows at monthly level in Salvajina

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gonzalez, Harold O

    1994-01-01

    It thinks about and models of lineal regression evaluate at monthly level that they allow to predict flows in Salvajina, with base in predictions variable, like the difference of pressure between Darwin and Tahiti, precipitation in Piendamo Cauca), temperature in Port Chicama (Peru) and pressure in Tahiti

  15. Validation of a tuber blight (Phytophthora infestans) prediction model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Potato tuber blight caused by Phytophthora infestans accounts for significant losses in storage. There is limited published quantitative data on predicting tuber blight. We validated a tuber blight prediction model developed in New York with cultivars Allegany, NY 101, and Katahdin using independent...

  16. Global vegetation change predicted by the modified Budyko model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Monserud, R.A.; Tchebakova, N.M.; Leemans, R. (US Department of Agriculture, Moscow, ID (United States). Intermountain Research Station, Forest Service)

    1993-09-01

    A modified Budyko global vegetation model is used to predict changes in global vegetation patterns resulting from climate change (CO[sub 2] doubling). Vegetation patterns are predicted using a model based on a dryness index and potential evaporation determined by solving radiation balance equations. Climate change scenarios are derived from predictions from four General Circulation Models (GCM's) of the atmosphere (GFDL, GISS, OSU, and UKMO). All four GCM scenarios show similar trends in vegetation shifts and in areas that remain stable, although the UKMO scenario predicts greater warming than the others. Climate change maps produced by all four GCM scenarios show good agreement with the current climate vegetation map for the globe as a whole, although over half of the vegetation classes show only poor to fair agreement. The most stable areas are Desert and Ice/Polar Desert. Because most of the predicted warming is concentrated in the Boreal and Temperate zones, vegetation there is predicted to undergo the greatest change. Most vegetation classes in the Subtropics and Tropics are predicted to expand. Any shift in the Tropics favouring either Forest over Savanna, or vice versa, will be determined by the magnitude of the increased precipitation accompanying global warming. Although the model predicts equilibrium conditions to which many plant species cannot adjust (through migration or microevolution) in the 50-100 y needed for CO[sub 2] doubling, it is not clear if projected global warming will result in drastic or benign vegetation change. 72 refs., 3 figs., 3 tabs.

  17. Moment based model predictive control for systems with additive uncertainty

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Saltik, M.B.; Ozkan, L.; Weiland, S.; Ludlage, J.H.A.

    2017-01-01

    In this paper, we present a model predictive control (MPC) strategy based on the moments of the state variables and the cost functional. The statistical properties of the state predictions are calculated through the open loop iteration of dynamics and used in the formulation of MPC cost function. We

  18. SM-1 negative ion source

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huang Zhenjun; Wang Jianzhen

    1987-01-01

    The working principle and characteristics of SM-1 Negative Ion Source is mainly introduced. In the instrument, there is a device to remove O 3 . This instrument can keep high density of negative ions which is generated by the electrical coronas setting out electricity at negative high voltage and can remove the O 3 component which is harmful to the human body. The density of negative ions is higher than 2.5 x 10 6 p./cm 3 while that of O 3 components is less than 1 ppb at the distance of 50 cm from the panel of the instrument. The instrument sprays negative ions automatically without the help of electric fan, so it works noiselessly. It is widely used in national defence, industry, agriculture, forestry, stock raising, sidelines and in the places with an equipment of low density of negative ion or high concentration of O 3 components. Besides, the instrument may also be used to treat diseases, to prevent against rot, to arrest bacteria, to purify air and so on

  19. Risk predictive modelling for diabetes and cardiovascular disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kengne, Andre Pascal; Masconi, Katya; Mbanya, Vivian Nchanchou; Lekoubou, Alain; Echouffo-Tcheugui, Justin Basile; Matsha, Tandi E

    2014-02-01

    Absolute risk models or clinical prediction models have been incorporated in guidelines, and are increasingly advocated as tools to assist risk stratification and guide prevention and treatments decisions relating to common health conditions such as cardiovascular disease (CVD) and diabetes mellitus. We have reviewed the historical development and principles of prediction research, including their statistical underpinning, as well as implications for routine practice, with a focus on predictive modelling for CVD and diabetes. Predictive modelling for CVD risk, which has developed over the last five decades, has been largely influenced by the Framingham Heart Study investigators, while it is only ∼20 years ago that similar efforts were started in the field of diabetes. Identification of predictive factors is an important preliminary step which provides the knowledge base on potential predictors to be tested for inclusion during the statistical derivation of the final model. The derived models must then be tested both on the development sample (internal validation) and on other populations in different settings (external validation). Updating procedures (e.g. recalibration) should be used to improve the performance of models that fail the tests of external validation. Ultimately, the effect of introducing validated models in routine practice on the process and outcomes of care as well as its cost-effectiveness should be tested in impact studies before wide dissemination of models beyond the research context. Several predictions models have been developed for CVD or diabetes, but very few have been externally validated or tested in impact studies, and their comparative performance has yet to be fully assessed. A shift of focus from developing new CVD or diabetes prediction models to validating the existing ones will improve their adoption in routine practice.

  20. Consensus models to predict endocrine disruption for all ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Humans are potentially exposed to tens of thousands of man-made chemicals in the environment. It is well known that some environmental chemicals mimic natural hormones and thus have the potential to be endocrine disruptors. Most of these environmental chemicals have never been tested for their ability to disrupt the endocrine system, in particular, their ability to interact with the estrogen receptor. EPA needs tools to prioritize thousands of chemicals, for instance in the Endocrine Disruptor Screening Program (EDSP). Collaborative Estrogen Receptor Activity Prediction Project (CERAPP) was intended to be a demonstration of the use of predictive computational models on HTS data including ToxCast and Tox21 assays to prioritize a large chemical universe of 32464 unique structures for one specific molecular target – the estrogen receptor. CERAPP combined multiple computational models for prediction of estrogen receptor activity, and used the predicted results to build a unique consensus model. Models were developed in collaboration between 17 groups in the U.S. and Europe and applied to predict the common set of chemicals. Structure-based techniques such as docking and several QSAR modeling approaches were employed, mostly using a common training set of 1677 compounds provided by U.S. EPA, to build a total of 42 classification models and 8 regression models for binding, agonist and antagonist activity. All predictions were evaluated on ToxCast data and on an exte

  1. Mixed models for predictive modeling in actuarial science

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Antonio, K.; Zhang, Y.

    2012-01-01

    We start with a general discussion of mixed (also called multilevel) models and continue with illustrating specific (actuarial) applications of this type of models. Technical details on (linear, generalized, non-linear) mixed models follow: model assumptions, specifications, estimation techniques

  2. A multivariate model for predicting segmental body composition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Simiao; Mioche, Laurence; Denis, Jean-Baptiste; Morio, Béatrice

    2013-12-01

    The aims of the present study were to propose a multivariate model for predicting simultaneously body, trunk and appendicular fat and lean masses from easily measured variables and to compare its predictive capacity with that of the available univariate models that predict body fat percentage (BF%). The dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) dataset (52% men and 48% women) with White, Black and Hispanic ethnicities (1999-2004, National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey) was randomly divided into three sub-datasets: a training dataset (TRD), a test dataset (TED); a validation dataset (VAD), comprising 3835, 1917 and 1917 subjects. For each sex, several multivariate prediction models were fitted from the TRD using age, weight, height and possibly waist circumference. The most accurate model was selected from the TED and then applied to the VAD and a French DXA dataset (French DB) (526 men and 529 women) to assess the prediction accuracy in comparison with that of five published univariate models, for which adjusted formulas were re-estimated using the TRD. Waist circumference was found to improve the prediction accuracy, especially in men. For BF%, the standard error of prediction (SEP) values were 3.26 (3.75) % for men and 3.47 (3.95)% for women in the VAD (French DB), as good as those of the adjusted univariate models. Moreover, the SEP values for the prediction of body and appendicular lean masses ranged from 1.39 to 2.75 kg for both the sexes. The prediction accuracy was best for age < 65 years, BMI < 30 kg/m2 and the Hispanic ethnicity. The application of our multivariate model to large populations could be useful to address various public health issues.

  3. The Selection of Turbulence Models for Prediction of Room Airflow

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Peter V.

    This paper discusses the use of different turbulence models and their advantages in given situations. As an example, it is shown that a simple zero-equation model can be used for the prediction of special situations as flow with a low level of turbulence. A zero-equation model with compensation...

  4. Testing the Predictions of the Central Capacity Sharing Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tombu, Michael; Jolicoeur, Pierre

    2005-01-01

    The divergent predictions of 2 models of dual-task performance are investigated. The central bottleneck and central capacity sharing models argue that a central stage of information processing is capacity limited, whereas stages before and after are capacity free. The models disagree about the nature of this central capacity limitation. The…

  5. Scanpath Based N-Gram Models for Predicting Reading Behavior

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mishra, Abhijit; Bhattacharyya, Pushpak; Carl, Michael

    2013-01-01

    Predicting reading behavior is a difficult task. Reading behavior depends on various linguistic factors (e.g. sentence length, structural complexity etc.) and other factors (e.g individual's reading style, age etc.). Ideally, a reading model should be similar to a language model where the model i...

  6. Droplet-model predictions of charge moments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Myers, W.D.

    1982-04-01

    The Droplet Model expressions for calculating various moments of the nuclear charge distribution are given. There are contributions to the moments from the size and shape of the system, from the internal redistribution induced by the Coulomb repulsion, and from the diffuseness of the surface. A case is made for the use of diffuse charge distributions generated by convolution as an alternative to Fermi-functions

  7. Haskell financial data modeling and predictive analytics

    CERN Document Server

    Ryzhov, Pavel

    2013-01-01

    This book is a hands-on guide that teaches readers how to use Haskell's tools and libraries to analyze data from real-world sources in an easy-to-understand manner.This book is great for developers who are new to financial data modeling using Haskell. A basic knowledge of functional programming is not required but will be useful. An interest in high frequency finance is essential.

  8. An analysis of seasonal predictability in coupled model forecasts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Peng, P.; Wang, W. [NOAA, Climate Prediction Center, Washington, DC (United States); Kumar, A. [NOAA, Climate Prediction Center, Washington, DC (United States); NCEP/NWS/NOAA, Climate Prediction Center, Camp Springs, MD (United States)

    2011-02-15

    In the recent decade, operational seasonal prediction systems based on initialized coupled models have been developed. An analysis of how the predictability of seasonal means in the initialized coupled predictions evolves with lead-time is presented. Because of the short lead-time, such an analysis for the temporal behavior of seasonal predictability involves a mix of both the predictability of the first and the second kind. The analysis focuses on the lead-time dependence of ensemble mean variance, and the forecast spread. Further, the analysis is for a fixed target season of December-January-February, and is for sea surface temperature, rainfall, and 200-mb height. The analysis is based on a large set of hindcasts from an initialized coupled seasonal prediction system. Various aspects of predictability of the first and the second kind are highlighted for variables with long (for example, SST), and fast (for example, atmospheric) adjustment time scale. An additional focus of the analysis is how the predictability in the initialized coupled seasonal predictions compares with estimates based on the AMIP simulations. The results indicate that differences in the set up of AMIP simulations and coupled predictions, for example, representation of air-sea interactions, and evolution of forecast spread from initial conditions do not change fundamental conclusion about the seasonal predictability. A discussion of the analysis presented herein, and its implications for the use of AMIP simulations for climate attribution, and for time-slice experiments to provide regional information, is also included. (orig.)

  9. Using Pareto points for model identification in predictive toxicology

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Predictive toxicology is concerned with the development of models that are able to predict the toxicity of chemicals. A reliable prediction of toxic effects of chemicals in living systems is highly desirable in cosmetics, drug design or food protection to speed up the process of chemical compound discovery while reducing the need for lab tests. There is an extensive literature associated with the best practice of model generation and data integration but management and automated identification of relevant models from available collections of models is still an open problem. Currently, the decision on which model should be used for a new chemical compound is left to users. This paper intends to initiate the discussion on automated model identification. We present an algorithm, based on Pareto optimality, which mines model collections and identifies a model that offers a reliable prediction for a new chemical compound. The performance of this new approach is verified for two endpoints: IGC50 and LogP. The results show a great potential for automated model identification methods in predictive toxicology. PMID:23517649

  10. Hybrid Corporate Performance Prediction Model Considering Technical Capability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joonhyuck Lee

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Many studies have tried to predict corporate performance and stock prices to enhance investment profitability using qualitative approaches such as the Delphi method. However, developments in data processing technology and machine-learning algorithms have resulted in efforts to develop quantitative prediction models in various managerial subject areas. We propose a quantitative corporate performance prediction model that applies the support vector regression (SVR algorithm to solve the problem of the overfitting of training data and can be applied to regression problems. The proposed model optimizes the SVR training parameters based on the training data, using the genetic algorithm to achieve sustainable predictability in changeable markets and managerial environments. Technology-intensive companies represent an increasing share of the total economy. The performance and stock prices of these companies are affected by their financial standing and their technological capabilities. Therefore, we apply both financial indicators and technical indicators to establish the proposed prediction model. Here, we use time series data, including financial, patent, and corporate performance information of 44 electronic and IT companies. Then, we predict the performance of these companies as an empirical verification of the prediction performance of the proposed model.

  11. Modeling Jambo wastewater treatment system to predict water re ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    user

    C++ programme to implement Brown's model for determining water quality usage ... predicting the re-use options of the wastewater treatment system was a ... skins from rural slaughter slabs/butchers, slaughter .... City (Karnataka State, India).

  12. FPGA implementation of predictive degradation model for engine oil lifetime

    Science.gov (United States)

    Idros, M. F. M.; Razak, A. H. A.; Junid, S. A. M. Al; Suliman, S. I.; Halim, A. K.

    2018-03-01

    This paper presents the implementation of linear regression model for degradation prediction on Register Transfer Logic (RTL) using QuartusII. A stationary model had been identified in the degradation trend for the engine oil in a vehicle in time series method. As for RTL implementation, the degradation model is written in Verilog HDL and the data input are taken at a certain time. Clock divider had been designed to support the timing sequence of input data. At every five data, a regression analysis is adapted for slope variation determination and prediction calculation. Here, only the negative value are taken as the consideration for the prediction purposes for less number of logic gate. Least Square Method is adapted to get the best linear model based on the mean values of time series data. The coded algorithm has been implemented on FPGA for validation purposes. The result shows the prediction time to change the engine oil.

  13. Linear regression crash prediction models : issues and proposed solutions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-05-01

    The paper develops a linear regression model approach that can be applied to : crash data to predict vehicle crashes. The proposed approach involves novice data aggregation : to satisfy linear regression assumptions; namely error structure normality ...

  14. Compensatory versus noncompensatory models for predicting consumer preferences

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anja Dieckmann

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available Standard preference models in consumer research assume that people weigh and add all attributes of the available options to derive a decision, while there is growing evidence for the use of simplifying heuristics. Recently, a greedoid algorithm has been developed (Yee, Dahan, Hauser and Orlin, 2007; Kohli and Jedidi, 2007 to model lexicographic heuristics from preference data. We compare predictive accuracies of the greedoid approach and standard conjoint analysis in an online study with a rating and a ranking task. The lexicographic model derived from the greedoid algorithm was better at predicting ranking compared to rating data, but overall, it achieved lower predictive accuracy for hold-out data than the compensatory model estimated by conjoint analysis. However, a considerable minority of participants was better predicted by lexicographic strategies. We conclude that the new algorithm will not replace standard tools for analyzing preferences, but can boost the study of situational and individual differences in preferential choice processes.

  15. Preoperative prediction model of outcome after cholecystectomy for symptomatic gallstones

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Borly, L; Anderson, I B; Bardram, L

    1999-01-01

    and sonography evaluated gallbladder motility, gallstones, and gallbladder volume. Preoperative variables in patients with or without postcholecystectomy pain were compared statistically, and significant variables were combined in a logistic regression model to predict the postoperative outcome. RESULTS: Eighty...... and by the absence of 'agonizing' pain and of symptoms coinciding with pain (P model 15 of 18 predicted patients had postoperative pain (PVpos = 0.83). Of 62 patients predicted as having no pain postoperatively, 56 were pain-free (PVneg = 0.90). Overall accuracy...... was 89%. CONCLUSION: From this prospective study a model based on preoperative symptoms was developed to predict postcholecystectomy pain. Since intrastudy reclassification may give too optimistic results, the model should be validated in future studies....

  16. Prediction of Chemical Function: Model Development and Application

    Science.gov (United States)

    The United States Environmental Protection Agency’s Exposure Forecaster (ExpoCast) project is developing both statistical and mechanism-based computational models for predicting exposures to thousands of chemicals, including those in consumer products. The high-throughput (...

  17. models for predicting compressive strength and water absorption

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    user

    presents a mathematical model for predicting the compressive strength and water absorption of laterite-quarry dust cement block using ... building and construction of new infrastructure and .... In (6), R is a vector containing the real ratios of the.

  18. Fuzzy model predictive control algorithm applied in nuclear power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zuheir, Ahmad

    2006-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to design a predictive controller based on a fuzzy model. The Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy model with an Adaptive B-splines neuro-fuzzy implementation is used and incorporated as a predictor in a predictive controller. An optimization approach with a simplified gradient technique is used to calculate predictions of the future control actions. In this approach, adaptation of the fuzzy model using dynamic process information is carried out to build the predictive controller. The easy description of the fuzzy model and the easy computation of the gradient sector during the optimization procedure are the main advantages of the computation algorithm. The algorithm is applied to the control of a U-tube steam generation unit (UTSG) used for electricity generation. (author)

  19. MDOT Pavement Management System : Prediction Models and Feedback System

    Science.gov (United States)

    2000-10-01

    As a primary component of a Pavement Management System (PMS), prediction models are crucial for one or more of the following analyses: : maintenance planning, budgeting, life-cycle analysis, multi-year optimization of maintenance works program, and a...

  20. Topological surface states interacting with bulk excitations in the Kondo insulator SmB6 revealed via planar tunneling spectroscopy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Wan Kyu; Sun, Lunan; Noddings, Alexander; Kim, Dae-Jeong; Fisk, Zachary; Greene, Laura H

    2016-06-14

    Samarium hexaboride (SmB6), a well-known Kondo insulator in which the insulating bulk arises from strong electron correlations, has recently attracted great attention owing to increasing evidence for its topological nature, thereby harboring protected surface states. However, corroborative spectroscopic evidence is still lacking, unlike in the weakly correlated counterparts, including Bi2Se3 Here, we report results from planar tunneling that unveil the detailed spectroscopic properties of SmB6 The tunneling conductance obtained on the (001) and (011) single crystal surfaces reveals linear density of states as expected for two and one Dirac cone(s), respectively. Quite remarkably, it is found that these topological states are not protected completely within the bulk hybridization gap. A phenomenological model of the tunneling process invoking interaction of the surface states with bulk excitations (spin excitons), as predicted by a recent theory, provides a consistent explanation for all of the observed features. Our spectroscopic study supports and explains the proposed picture of the incompletely protected surface states in this topological Kondo insulator SmB6.

  1. A highly predictive A 4 flavor 3-3-1 model with radiative inverse seesaw mechanism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cárcamo Hernández, A. E.; Long, H. N.

    2018-04-01

    We build a highly predictive 3-3-1 model, where the field content is extended by including several SU(3) L scalar singlets and six right handed Majorana neutrinos. In our model the {SU}{(3)}C× {SU}{(3)}L× U{(1)}X gauge symmetry is supplemented by the {A}4× {Z}4× {Z}6× {Z}16× {Z}16{\\prime } discrete group, which allows to get a very good description of the low energy fermion flavor data. In the model under consideration, the {A}4× {Z}4× {Z}6× {Z}16× {Z}16{\\prime } discrete group is broken at very high energy scale down to the preserved Z 2 discrete symmetry, thus generating the observed pattern of SM fermion masses and mixing angles and allowing the implementation of the loop level inverse seesaw mechanism for the generation of the light active neutrino masses, respectively. The obtained values for the physical observables in the quark sector agree with the experimental data, whereas those ones for the lepton sector also do, only for the case of inverted neutrino mass spectrum. The normal neutrino mass hierarchy scenario of the model is ruled out by the neutrino oscillation experimental data. We find an effective Majorana neutrino mass parameter of neutrinoless double beta decay of m ee = 46.9 meV, a leptonic Dirac CP violating phase of -81.37° and a Jarlskog invariant of about 10-2 for the inverted neutrino mass hierarchy. The preserved Z 2 symmetry allows for a stable scalar dark matter candidate.

  2. Predictive modelling using neuroimaging data in the presence of confounds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rao, Anil; Monteiro, Joao M; Mourao-Miranda, Janaina

    2017-04-15

    When training predictive models from neuroimaging data, we typically have available non-imaging variables such as age and gender that affect the imaging data but which we may be uninterested in from a clinical perspective. Such variables are commonly referred to as 'confounds'. In this work, we firstly give a working definition for confound in the context of training predictive models from samples of neuroimaging data. We define a confound as a variable which affects the imaging data and has an association with the target variable in the sample that differs from that in the population-of-interest, i.e., the population over which we intend to apply the estimated predictive model. The focus of this paper is the scenario in which the confound and target variable are independent in the population-of-interest, but the training sample is biased due to a sample association between the target and confound. We then discuss standard approaches for dealing with confounds in predictive modelling such as image adjustment and including the confound as a predictor, before deriving and motivating an Instance Weighting scheme that attempts to account for confounds by focusing model training so that it is optimal for the population-of-interest. We evaluate the standard approaches and Instance Weighting in two regression problems with neuroimaging data in which we train models in the presence of confounding, and predict samples that are representative of the population-of-interest. For comparison, these models are also evaluated when there is no confounding present. In the first experiment we predict the MMSE score using structural MRI from the ADNI database with gender as the confound, while in the second we predict age using structural MRI from the IXI database with acquisition site as the confound. Considered over both datasets we find that none of the methods for dealing with confounding gives more accurate predictions than a baseline model which ignores confounding, although

  3. Modeling Seizure Self-Prediction: An E-Diary Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haut, Sheryl R.; Hall, Charles B.; Borkowski, Thomas; Tennen, Howard; Lipton, Richard B.

    2013-01-01

    Purpose A subset of patients with epilepsy successfully self-predicted seizures in a paper diary study. We conducted an e-diary study to ensure that prediction precedes seizures, and to characterize the prodromal features and time windows that underlie self-prediction. Methods Subjects 18 or older with LRE and ≥3 seizures/month maintained an e-diary, reporting AM/PM data daily, including mood, premonitory symptoms, and all seizures. Self-prediction was rated by, “How likely are you to experience a seizure [time frame]”? Five choices ranged from almost certain (>95% chance) to very unlikely. Relative odds of seizure (OR) within time frames was examined using Poisson models with log normal random effects to adjust for multiple observations. Key Findings Nineteen subjects reported 244 eligible seizures. OR for prediction choices within 6hrs was as high as 9.31 (1.92,45.23) for “almost certain”. Prediction was most robust within 6hrs of diary entry, and remained significant up to 12hrs. For 9 best predictors, average sensitivity was 50%. Older age contributed to successful self-prediction, and self-prediction appeared to be driven by mood and premonitory symptoms. In multivariate modeling of seizure occurrence, self-prediction (2.84; 1.68,4.81), favorable change in mood (0.82; 0.67,0.99) and number of premonitory symptoms (1,11; 1.00,1.24) were significant. Significance Some persons with epilepsy can self-predict seizures. In these individuals, the odds of a seizure following a positive prediction are high. Predictions were robust, not attributable to recall bias, and were related to self awareness of mood and premonitory features. The 6-hour prediction window is suitable for the development of pre-emptive therapy. PMID:24111898

  4. Isomer decay spectroscopy of 164Sm and 166Gd: midshell collectivity around N=100.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patel, Z; Söderström, P-A; Podolyák, Zs; Regan, P H; Walker, P M; Watanabe, H; Ideguchi, E; Simpson, G S; Liu, H L; Nishimura, S; Wu, Q; Xu, F R; Browne, F; Doornenbal, P; Lorusso, G; Rice, S; Sinclair, L; Sumikama, T; Wu, J; Xu, Z Y; Aoi, N; Baba, H; Bello Garrote, F L; Benzoni, G; Daido, R; Fang, Y; Fukuda, N; Gey, G; Go, S; Gottardo, A; Inabe, N; Isobe, T; Kameda, D; Kobayashi, K; Kobayashi, M; Komatsubara, T; Kojouharov, I; Kubo, T; Kurz, N; Kuti, I; Li, Z; Matsushita, M; Michimasa, S; Moon, C-B; Nishibata, H; Nishizuka, I; Odahara, A; Şahin, E; Sakurai, H; Schaffner, H; Suzuki, H; Takeda, H; Tanaka, M; Taprogge, J; Vajta, Zs; Yagi, A; Yokoyama, R

    2014-12-31

    Excited states in the N=102 isotones 166Gd and 164Sm have been observed following isomeric decay for the first time at RIBF, RIKEN. The half-lives of the isomeric states have been measured to be 950(60) and 600(140) ns for 166Gd and 164Sm, respectively. Based on the decay patterns and potential energy surface calculations, including β6 deformation, a spin and parity of 6- has been assigned to the isomeric states in both nuclei. Collective observables are discussed in light of the systematics of the region, giving insight into nuclear shape evolution. The decrease in the ground-band energies of 166Gd and 164Sm (N=102) compared to 164Gd and 162Sm (N=100), respectively, presents evidence for the predicted deformed shell closure at N=100.

  5. Isomer Decay Spectroscopy of Sm 164 and Gd 166 : Midshell Collectivity Around N =100

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patel, Z.; Söderström, P.-A.; Podolyák, Zs.; Regan, P. H.; Walker, P. M.; Watanabe, H.; Ideguchi, E.; Simpson, G. S.; Liu, H. L.; Nishimura, S.; Wu, Q.; Xu, F. R.; Browne, F.; Doornenbal, P.; Lorusso, G.; Rice, S.; Sinclair, L.; Sumikama, T.; Wu, J.; Xu, Z. Y.; Aoi, N.; Baba, H.; Bello Garrote, F. L.; Benzoni, G.; Daido, R.; Fang, Y.; Fukuda, N.; Gey, G.; Go, S.; Gottardo, A.; Inabe, N.; Isobe, T.; Kameda, D.; Kobayashi, K.; Kobayashi, M.; Komatsubara, T.; Kojouharov, I.; Kubo, T.; Kurz, N.; Kuti, I.; Li, Z.; Matsushita, M.; Michimasa, S.; Moon, C.-B.; Nishibata, H.; Nishizuka, I.; Odahara, A.; Şahin, E.; Sakurai, H.; Schaffner, H.; Suzuki, H.; Takeda, H.; Tanaka, M.; Taprogge, J.; Vajta, Zs.; Yagi, A.; Yokoyama, R.

    2014-12-01

    Excited states in the N =102 isotones Gd 166 and Sm 164 have been observed following isomeric decay for the first time at RIBF, RIKEN. The half-lives of the isomeric states have been measured to be 950(60) and 600(140) ns for Gd 166 and Sm 164 , respectively. Based on the decay patterns and potential energy surface calculations, including β6 deformation, a spin and parity of 6- has been assigned to the isomeric states in both nuclei. Collective observables are discussed in light of the systematics of the region, giving insight into nuclear shape evolution. The decrease in the ground-band energies of Gd 166 and Sm 164 (N =102 ) compared to Gd 164 and Sm 162 (N =100 ), respectively, presents evidence for the predicted deformed shell closure at N =100 .

  6. Prediction of cloud droplet number in a general circulation model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ghan, S.J.; Leung, L.R. [Pacific Northwest National Lab., Richland, WA (United States)

    1996-04-01

    We have applied the Colorado State University Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) bulk cloud microphysics parameterization to the treatment of stratiform clouds in the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate Model (CCM2). The RAMS predicts mass concentrations of cloud water, cloud ice, rain and snow, and number concnetration of ice. We have introduced the droplet number conservation equation to predict droplet number and it`s dependence on aerosols.

  7. Approximating prediction uncertainty for random forest regression models

    Science.gov (United States)

    John W. Coulston; Christine E. Blinn; Valerie A. Thomas; Randolph H. Wynne

    2016-01-01

    Machine learning approaches such as random forest have increased for the spatial modeling and mapping of continuous variables. Random forest is a non-parametric ensemble approach, and unlike traditional regression approaches there is no direct quantification of prediction error. Understanding prediction uncertainty is important when using model-based continuous maps as...

  8. Aqua/Aura Updated Inclination Adjust Maneuver Performance Prediction Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boone, Spencer

    2017-01-01

    This presentation will discuss the updated Inclination Adjust Maneuver (IAM) performance prediction model that was developed for Aqua and Aura following the 2017 IAM series. This updated model uses statistical regression methods to identify potential long-term trends in maneuver parameters, yielding improved predictions when re-planning past maneuvers. The presentation has been reviewed and approved by Eric Moyer, ESMO Deputy Project Manager.

  9. Preparation, microstructure and magnetic properties of Sm(Co,Hf){sub 7}/Co nanocomposite particles by polyol method

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bu, Shao-Jing; Duan, Xiu-Li; Han, Xu-Hao; Sun, Ji-Bing, E-mail: hbgdsjb@126.com; Chi, Xiang; Cui, Chun-Xiang

    2017-02-01

    Hard/soft Sm-Co/Co nanocomposite particles were prepared by reducing CoCl{sub 2}·6H{sub 2}O in the solution containing ball-milled Sm(Co, Hf){sub 7} particles by a simple polyol method with ethylene glycol as the solvent. Phase composition, microstructure and magnetic properties of the particles were analyzed by XRD, TEM (HRTEM) and VSM, respectively. It has been found that Sm-Co/Co core/shell structure is formed in which the Co shell is 3–5 nm in thickness and mainly exists in hcp-Co phase. At the same time, fcc-Co tends to nucleate and grow independently between Sm-Co particles. The formation mechanism of Sm-Co/Co composite particles is discussed and corresponding model is established. Sm-Co/Co composite particles perform obvious remanence enhancement effects especially after being heated at 450 °C for 15 min.

  10. Modeling and Predicting the Electrical Conductivity of Composite Cathode for Solid Oxide Fuel Cell by Using Support Vector Regression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, J. L.; Cai, C. Z.; Xiao, T. T.; Huang, S. J.

    2012-07-01

    The electrical conductivity of solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) cathode is one of the most important indices affecting the efficiency of SOFC. In order to improve the performance of fuel cell system, it is advantageous to have accurate model with which one can predict the electrical conductivity. In this paper, a model utilizing support vector regression (SVR) approach combined with particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm for its parameter optimization was established to modeling and predicting the electrical conductivity of Ba0.5Sr0.5Co0.8Fe0.2 O3-δ-xSm0.5Sr0.5CoO3-δ (BSCF-xSSC) composite cathode under two influence factors, including operating temperature (T) and SSC content (x) in BSCF-xSSC composite cathode. The leave-one-out cross validation (LOOCV) test result by SVR strongly supports that the generalization ability of SVR model is high enough. The absolute percentage error (APE) of 27 samples does not exceed 0.05%. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of all 30 samples is only 0.09% and the correlation coefficient (R2) as high as 0.999. This investigation suggests that the hybrid PSO-SVR approach may be not only a promising and practical methodology to simulate the properties of fuel cell system, but also a powerful tool to be used for optimal designing or controlling the operating process of a SOFC system.

  11. Model Predictive Control of Wind Turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Henriksen, Lars Christian

    Wind turbines play a major role in the transformation from a fossil fuel based energy production to a more sustainable production of energy. Total-cost-of-ownership is an important parameter when investors decide in which energy technology they should place their capital. Modern wind turbines...... the need for maintenance of the wind turbine. Either way, better total-cost-of-ownership for wind turbine operators can be achieved by improved control of the wind turbines. Wind turbine control can be improved in two ways, by improving the model on which the controller bases its design or by improving...

  12. Nonconvex Model Predictive Control for Commercial Refrigeration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hovgaard, Tobias Gybel; Larsen, Lars F.S.; Jørgensen, John Bagterp

    2013-01-01

    function, however, is nonconvex due to the temperature dependence of thermodynamic efficiency. To handle this nonconvexity we propose a sequential convex optimization method, which typically converges in fewer than 5 or so iterations. We employ a fast convex quadratic programming solver to carry out...... the iterations, which is more than fast enough to run in real-time. We demonstrate our method on a realistic model, with a full year simulation and 15 minute time periods, using historical electricity prices and weather data, as well as random variations in thermal load. These simulations show substantial cost...... capacity associated with large penetration of intermittent renewable energy sources in a future smart grid....

  13. Catalytic cracking models developed for predictive control purposes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dag Ljungqvist

    1993-04-01

    Full Text Available The paper deals with state-space modeling issues in the context of model-predictive control, with application to catalytic cracking. Emphasis is placed on model establishment, verification and online adjustment. Both the Fluid Catalytic Cracking (FCC and the Residual Catalytic Cracking (RCC units are discussed. Catalytic cracking units involve complex interactive processes which are difficult to operate and control in an economically optimal way. The strong nonlinearities of the FCC process mean that the control calculation should be based on a nonlinear model with the relevant constraints included. However, the model can be simple compared to the complexity of the catalytic cracking plant. Model validity is ensured by a robust online model adjustment strategy. Model-predictive control schemes based on linear convolution models have been successfully applied to the supervisory dynamic control of catalytic cracking units, and the control can be further improved by the SSPC scheme.

  14. CMMI(sm)-SE/SW, V1.0 Capability Maturity Model-Integrated for Systems Engineering/Software Engineering, Version 1.0. Continuous Representation

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    2000-01-01

    The purpose of CMM Integration, and therefore this CMMI model, is to provide guidance for improving an organization's processes and its ability to manage the development, acquisition, and maintenance...

  15. CMMI(sm)-SE/SW, V1.0 Capability Maturity Model-Integrated for Systems Engineering/Software Engineering, Version 1.0. Staged Representation

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    2000-01-01

    The purpose of CMM Integration, and therefore this CMMI model, is to provide guidance for improving an organization's processes and its ability to manage the development, acquisition, and maintenance...

  16. Toward a predictive model for elastomer seals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molinari, Nicola; Khawaja, Musab; Sutton, Adrian; Mostofi, Arash

    Nitrile butadiene rubber (NBR) and hydrogenated-NBR (HNBR) are widely used elastomers, especially as seals in oil and gas applications. During exposure to well-hole conditions, ingress of gases causes degradation of performance, including mechanical failure. We use computer simulations to investigate this problem at two different length and time-scales. First, we study the solubility of gases in the elastomer using a chemically-inspired description of HNBR based on the OPLS all-atom force-field. Starting with a model of NBR, C=C double bonds are saturated with either hydrogen or intramolecular cross-links, mimicking the hydrogenation of NBR to form HNBR. We validate against trends for the mass density and glass transition temperature for HNBR as a function of cross-link density, and for NBR as a function of the fraction of acrylonitrile in the copolymer. Second, we study mechanical behaviour using a coarse-grained model that overcomes some of the length and time-scale limitations of an all-atom approach. Nanoparticle fillers added to the elastomer matrix to enhance mechanical response are also included. Our initial focus is on understanding the mechanical properties at the elevated temperatures and pressures experienced in well-hole conditions.

  17. Predictive QSAR Models for the Toxicity of Disinfection Byproducts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Litang Qin

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Several hundred disinfection byproducts (DBPs in drinking water have been identified, and are known to have potentially adverse health effects. There are toxicological data gaps for most DBPs, and the predictive method may provide an effective way to address this. The development of an in-silico model of toxicology endpoints of DBPs is rarely studied. The main aim of the present study is to develop predictive quantitative structure–activity relationship (QSAR models for the reactive toxicities of 50 DBPs in the five bioassays of X-Microtox, GSH+, GSH−, DNA+ and DNA−. All-subset regression was used to select the optimal descriptors, and multiple linear-regression models were built. The developed QSAR models for five endpoints satisfied the internal and external validation criteria: coefficient of determination (R2 > 0.7, explained variance in leave-one-out prediction (Q2LOO and in leave-many-out prediction (Q2LMO > 0.6, variance explained in external prediction (Q2F1, Q2F2, and Q2F3 > 0.7, and concordance correlation coefficient (CCC > 0.85. The application domains and the meaning of the selective descriptors for the QSAR models were discussed. The obtained QSAR models can be used in predicting the toxicities of the 50 DBPs.

  18. Predictive QSAR Models for the Toxicity of Disinfection Byproducts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qin, Litang; Zhang, Xin; Chen, Yuhan; Mo, Lingyun; Zeng, Honghu; Liang, Yanpeng

    2017-10-09

    Several hundred disinfection byproducts (DBPs) in drinking water have been identified, and are known to have potentially adverse health effects. There are toxicological data gaps for most DBPs, and the predictive method may provide an effective way to address this. The development of an in-silico model of toxicology endpoints of DBPs is rarely studied. The main aim of the present study is to develop predictive quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) models for the reactive toxicities of 50 DBPs in the five bioassays of X-Microtox, GSH+, GSH-, DNA+ and DNA-. All-subset regression was used to select the optimal descriptors, and multiple linear-regression models were built. The developed QSAR models for five endpoints satisfied the internal and external validation criteria: coefficient of determination ( R ²) > 0.7, explained variance in leave-one-out prediction ( Q ² LOO ) and in leave-many-out prediction ( Q ² LMO ) > 0.6, variance explained in external prediction ( Q ² F1 , Q ² F2 , and Q ² F3 ) > 0.7, and concordance correlation coefficient ( CCC ) > 0.85. The application domains and the meaning of the selective descriptors for the QSAR models were discussed. The obtained QSAR models can be used in predicting the toxicities of the 50 DBPs.

  19. Observation of dipole bands in 144Sm

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raut, R.; Ganguly, S.; Kshetri, R.; Banerjee, P.; Bhattacharya, S.; Dasmahapatra, B.; Mukherjee, A.; Sahasarkar, M.; Goswami, A.; Basu, S.K.; Bhattacharjee, T.; Mukherjee, G.; Chakraborty, A.; Ghughre, S.S.; Krishichayan; Mukhopadhyay, S.; Gangopadhyay, G.; Singh, A.K.

    2007-01-01

    The nucleus 144 Sm (Z=62, N=82), with its proximity to the shell closure and possibilities of particles and holes occupying high j orbitals, following appropriate excitations, is a suitable system for observation of dipole (MR) bands

  20. Predictions for mt and MW in minimal supersymmetric models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buchmueller, O.; Ellis, J.R.; Flaecher, H.; Isidori, G.

    2009-12-01

    Using a frequentist analysis of experimental constraints within two versions of the minimal supersymmetric extension of the Standard Model, we derive the predictions for the top quark mass, m t , and the W boson mass, m W . We find that the supersymmetric predictions for both m t and m W , obtained by incorporating all the relevant experimental information and state-of-the-art theoretical predictions, are highly compatible with the experimental values with small remaining uncertainties, yielding an improvement compared to the case of the Standard Model. (orig.)

  1. Using a Prediction Model to Manage Cyber Security Threats

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Venkatesh Jaganathan

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Cyber-attacks are an important issue faced by all organizations. Securing information systems is critical. Organizations should be able to understand the ecosystem and predict attacks. Predicting attacks quantitatively should be part of risk management. The cost impact due to worms, viruses, or other malicious software is significant. This paper proposes a mathematical model to predict the impact of an attack based on significant factors that influence cyber security. This model also considers the environmental information required. It is generalized and can be customized to the needs of the individual organization.

  2. Using a Prediction Model to Manage Cyber Security Threats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaganathan, Venkatesh; Cherurveettil, Priyesh; Muthu Sivashanmugam, Premapriya

    2015-01-01

    Cyber-attacks are an important issue faced by all organizations. Securing information systems is critical. Organizations should be able to understand the ecosystem and predict attacks. Predicting attacks quantitatively should be part of risk management. The cost impact due to worms, viruses, or other malicious software is significant. This paper proposes a mathematical model to predict the impact of an attack based on significant factors that influence cyber security. This model also considers the environmental information required. It is generalized and can be customized to the needs of the individual organization.

  3. Using a Prediction Model to Manage Cyber Security Threats

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muthu Sivashanmugam, Premapriya

    2015-01-01

    Cyber-attacks are an important issue faced by all organizations. Securing information systems is critical. Organizations should be able to understand the ecosystem and predict attacks. Predicting attacks quantitatively should be part of risk management. The cost impact due to worms, viruses, or other malicious software is significant. This paper proposes a mathematical model to predict the impact of an attack based on significant factors that influence cyber security. This model also considers the environmental information required. It is generalized and can be customized to the needs of the individual organization. PMID:26065024

  4. Aero-acoustic noise of wind turbines. Noise prediction models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maribo Pedersen, B. [ed.

    1997-12-31

    Semi-empirical and CAA (Computational AeroAcoustics) noise prediction techniques are the subject of this expert meeting. The meeting presents and discusses models and methods. The meeting may provide answers to the following questions: What Noise sources are the most important? How are the sources best modeled? What needs to be done to do better predictions? Does it boil down to correct prediction of the unsteady aerodynamics around the rotor? Or is the difficult part to convert the aerodynamics into acoustics? (LN)

  5. Model Predictive Control of a Wave Energy Converter

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Palle; Pedersen, Tom Søndergård; Nielsen, Kirsten Mølgaard

    2015-01-01

    In this paper reactive control and Model Predictive Control (MPC) for a Wave Energy Converter (WEC) are compared. The analysis is based on a WEC from Wave Star A/S designed as a point absorber. The model predictive controller uses wave models based on the dominating sea states combined with a model...... connecting undisturbed wave sequences to sequences of torque. Losses in the conversion from mechanical to electrical power are taken into account in two ways. Conventional reactive controllers are tuned for each sea state with the assumption that the converter has the same efficiency back and forth. MPC...

  6. Time dependent patient no-show predictive modelling development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Yu-Li; Hanauer, David A

    2016-05-09

    Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to develop evident-based predictive no-show models considering patients' each past appointment status, a time-dependent component, as an independent predictor to improve predictability. Design/methodology/approach - A ten-year retrospective data set was extracted from a pediatric clinic. It consisted of 7,291 distinct patients who had at least two visits along with their appointment characteristics, patient demographics, and insurance information. Logistic regression was adopted to develop no-show models using two-thirds of the data for training and the remaining data for validation. The no-show threshold was then determined based on minimizing the misclassification of show/no-show assignments. There were a total of 26 predictive model developed based on the number of available past appointments. Simulation was employed to test the effective of each model on costs of patient wait time, physician idle time, and overtime. Findings - The results demonstrated the misclassification rate and the area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic gradually improved as more appointment history was included until around the 20th predictive model. The overbooking method with no-show predictive models suggested incorporating up to the 16th model and outperformed other overbooking methods by as much as 9.4 per cent in the cost per patient while allowing two additional patients in a clinic day. Research limitations/implications - The challenge now is to actually implement the no-show predictive model systematically to further demonstrate its robustness and simplicity in various scheduling systems. Originality/value - This paper provides examples of how to build the no-show predictive models with time-dependent components to improve the overbooking policy. Accurately identifying scheduled patients' show/no-show status allows clinics to proactively schedule patients to reduce the negative impact of patient no-shows.

  7. Preprocedural Prediction Model for Contrast-Induced Nephropathy Patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yin, Wen-Jun; Yi, Yi-Hu; Guan, Xiao-Feng; Zhou, Ling-Yun; Wang, Jiang-Lin; Li, Dai-Yang; Zuo, Xiao-Cong

    2017-02-03

    Several models have been developed for prediction of contrast-induced nephropathy (CIN); however, they only contain patients receiving intra-arterial contrast media for coronary angiographic procedures, which represent a small proportion of all contrast procedures. In addition, most of them evaluate radiological interventional procedure-related variables. So it is necessary for us to develop a model for prediction of CIN before radiological procedures among patients administered contrast media. A total of 8800 patients undergoing contrast administration were randomly assigned in a 4:1 ratio to development and validation data sets. CIN was defined as an increase of 25% and/or 0.5 mg/dL in serum creatinine within 72 hours above the baseline value. Preprocedural clinical variables were used to develop the prediction model from the training data set by the machine learning method of random forest, and 5-fold cross-validation was used to evaluate the prediction accuracies of the model. Finally we tested this model in the validation data set. The incidence of CIN was 13.38%. We built a prediction model with 13 preprocedural variables selected from 83 variables. The model obtained an area under the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) of 0.907 and gave prediction accuracy of 80.8%, sensitivity of 82.7%, specificity of 78.8%, and Matthews correlation coefficient of 61.5%. For the first time, 3 new factors are included in the model: the decreased sodium concentration, the INR value, and the preprocedural glucose level. The newly established model shows excellent predictive ability of CIN development and thereby provides preventative measures for CIN. © 2017 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley Blackwell.

  8. Numerical modeling capabilities to predict repository performance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1979-09-01

    This report presents a summary of current numerical modeling capabilities that are applicable to the design and performance evaluation of underground repositories for the storage of nuclear waste. The report includes codes that are available in-house, within Golder Associates and Lawrence Livermore Laboratories; as well as those that are generally available within the industry and universities. The first listing of programs are in-house codes in the subject areas of hydrology, solute transport, thermal and mechanical stress analysis, and structural geology. The second listing of programs are divided by subject into the following categories: site selection, structural geology, mine structural design, mine ventilation, hydrology, and mine design/construction/operation. These programs are not specifically designed for use in the design and evaluation of an underground repository for nuclear waste; but several or most of them may be so used

  9. Model output statistics applied to wind power prediction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Joensen, A; Giebel, G; Landberg, L [Risoe National Lab., Roskilde (Denmark); Madsen, H; Nielsen, H A [The Technical Univ. of Denmark, Dept. of Mathematical Modelling, Lyngby (Denmark)

    1999-03-01

    Being able to predict the output of a wind farm online for a day or two in advance has significant advantages for utilities, such as better possibility to schedule fossil fuelled power plants and a better position on electricity spot markets. In this paper prediction methods based on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models are considered. The spatial resolution used in NWP models implies that these predictions are not valid locally at a specific wind farm. Furthermore, due to the non-stationary nature and complexity of the processes in the atmosphere, and occasional changes of NWP models, the deviation between the predicted and the measured wind will be time dependent. If observational data is available, and if the deviation between the predictions and the observations exhibits systematic behavior, this should be corrected for; if statistical methods are used, this approaches is usually referred to as MOS (Model Output Statistics). The influence of atmospheric turbulence intensity, topography, prediction horizon length and auto-correlation of wind speed and power is considered, and to take the time-variations into account, adaptive estimation methods are applied. Three estimation techniques are considered and compared, Extended Kalman Filtering, recursive least squares and a new modified recursive least squares algorithm. (au) EU-JOULE-3. 11 refs.

  10. Predictive modeling of neuroanatomic structures for brain atrophy detection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Xintao; Guo, Lei; Nie, Jingxin; Li, Kaiming; Liu, Tianming

    2010-03-01

    In this paper, we present an approach of predictive modeling of neuroanatomic structures for the detection of brain atrophy based on cross-sectional MRI image. The underlying premise of applying predictive modeling for atrophy detection is that brain atrophy is defined as significant deviation of part of the anatomy from what the remaining normal anatomy predicts for that part. The steps of predictive modeling are as follows. The central cortical surface under consideration is reconstructed from brain tissue map and Regions of Interests (ROI) on it are predicted from other reliable anatomies. The vertex pair-wise distance between the predicted vertex and the true one within the abnormal region is expected to be larger than that of the vertex in normal brain region. Change of white matter/gray matter ratio within a spherical region is used to identify the direction of vertex displacement. In this way, the severity of brain atrophy can be defined quantitatively by the displacements of those vertices. The proposed predictive modeling method has been evaluated by using both simulated atrophies and MRI images of Alzheimer's disease.

  11. Outcome Prediction in Mathematical Models of Immune Response to Infection.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manuel Mai

    Full Text Available Clinicians need to predict patient outcomes with high accuracy as early as possible after disease inception. In this manuscript, we show that patient-to-patient variability sets a fundamental limit on outcome prediction accuracy for a general class of mathematical models for the immune response to infection. However, accuracy can be increased at the expense of delayed prognosis. We investigate several systems of ordinary differential equations (ODEs that model the host immune response to a pathogen load. Advantages of systems of ODEs for investigating the immune response to infection include the ability to collect data on large numbers of 'virtual patients', each with a given set of model parameters, and obtain many time points during the course of the infection. We implement patient-to-patient variability v in the ODE models by randomly selecting the model parameters from distributions with coefficients of variation v that are centered on physiological values. We use logistic regression with one-versus-all classification to predict the discrete steady-state outcomes of the system. We find that the prediction algorithm achieves near 100% accuracy for v = 0, and the accuracy decreases with increasing v for all ODE models studied. The fact that multiple steady-state outcomes can be obtained for a given initial condition, i.e. the basins of attraction overlap in the space of initial conditions, limits the prediction accuracy for v > 0. Increasing the elapsed time of the variables used to train and test the classifier, increases the prediction accuracy, while adding explicit external noise to the ODE models decreases the prediction accuracy. Our results quantify the competition between early prognosis and high prediction accuracy that is frequently encountered by clinicians.

  12. Evaluation of burst pressure prediction models for line pipes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhu, Xian-Kui; Leis, Brian N.

    2012-01-01

    Accurate prediction of burst pressure plays a central role in engineering design and integrity assessment of oil and gas pipelines. Theoretical and empirical solutions for such prediction are evaluated in this paper relative to a burst pressure database comprising more than 100 tests covering a variety of pipeline steel grades and pipe sizes. Solutions considered include three based on plasticity theory for the end-capped, thin-walled, defect-free line pipe subjected to internal pressure in terms of the Tresca, von Mises, and ZL (or Zhu-Leis) criteria, one based on a cylindrical instability stress (CIS) concept, and a large group of analytical and empirical models previously evaluated by Law and Bowie (International Journal of Pressure Vessels and Piping, 84, 2007: 487–492). It is found that these models can be categorized into either a Tresca-family or a von Mises-family of solutions, except for those due to Margetson and Zhu-Leis models. The viability of predictions is measured via statistical analyses in terms of a mean error and its standard deviation. Consistent with an independent parallel evaluation using another large database, the Zhu-Leis solution is found best for predicting burst pressure, including consideration of strain hardening effects, while the Tresca strength solutions including Barlow, Maximum shear stress, Turner, and the ASME boiler code provide reasonably good predictions for the class of line-pipe steels with intermediate strain hardening response. - Highlights: ► This paper evaluates different burst pressure prediction models for line pipes. ► The existing models are categorized into two major groups of Tresca and von Mises solutions. ► Prediction quality of each model is assessed statistically using a large full-scale burst test database. ► The Zhu-Leis solution is identified as the best predictive model.

  13. Evaluation of burst pressure prediction models for line pipes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhu, Xian-Kui, E-mail: zhux@battelle.org [Battelle Memorial Institute, 505 King Avenue, Columbus, OH 43201 (United States); Leis, Brian N. [Battelle Memorial Institute, 505 King Avenue, Columbus, OH 43201 (United States)

    2012-01-15

    Accurate prediction of burst pressure plays a central role in engineering design and integrity assessment of oil and gas pipelines. Theoretical and empirical solutions for such prediction are evaluated in this paper relative to a burst pressure database comprising more than 100 tests covering a variety of pipeline steel grades and pipe sizes. Solutions considered include three based on plasticity theory for the end-capped, thin-walled, defect-free line pipe subjected to internal pressure in terms of the Tresca, von Mises, and ZL (or Zhu-Leis) criteria, one based on a cylindrical instability stress (CIS) concept, and a large group of analytical and empirical models previously evaluated by Law and Bowie (International Journal of Pressure Vessels and Piping, 84, 2007: 487-492). It is found that these models can be categorized into either a Tresca-family or a von Mises-family of solutions, except for those due to Margetson and Zhu-Leis models. The viability of predictions is measured via statistical analyses in terms of a mean error and its standard deviation. Consistent with an independent parallel evaluation using another large database, the Zhu-Leis solution is found best for predicting burst pressure, including consideration of strain hardening effects, while the Tresca strength solutions including Barlow, Maximum shear stress, Turner, and the ASME boiler code provide reasonably good predictions for the class of line-pipe steels with intermediate strain hardening response. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer This paper evaluates different burst pressure prediction models for line pipes. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The existing models are categorized into two major groups of Tresca and von Mises solutions. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Prediction quality of each model is assessed statistically using a large full-scale burst test database. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The Zhu-Leis solution is identified as the best predictive model.

  14. Analysis of the magnetic anisotropy in SmCo5 and GdCo5

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhao, T.; Jin, H.; Groessinger, R.; Kou, X.; Kirchmayr, H.R.

    1991-01-01

    The temperature dependence of the magnetic anisotropy constant K 1 for SmCo 5 and GdCo 5 is well reproduced by calculations based on a single-ion model taking into account the anisotropies of the R--Co exchange interaction and the Co-sublattice magnetic moment. The anisotropy of the R--Co exchange interaction plays an important role in reproducing the experimental K 1 (T) for SmCo 5 and GdCo 5 . It is found that the absolute value of the second order crystalline electric field parameter A 0 2 in SmCo 5 decreases monotonically with increasing temperature

  15. Survival prediction model for postoperative hepatocellular carcinoma patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ren, Zhihui; He, Shasha; Fan, Xiaotang; He, Fangping; Sang, Wei; Bao, Yongxing; Ren, Weixin; Zhao, Jinming; Ji, Xuewen; Wen, Hao

    2017-09-01

    This study is to establish a predictive index (PI) model of 5-year survival rate for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after radical resection and to evaluate its prediction sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy.Patients underwent HCC surgical resection were enrolled and randomly divided into prediction model group (101 patients) and model evaluation group (100 patients). Cox regression model was used for univariate and multivariate survival analysis. A PI model was established based on multivariate analysis and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was drawn accordingly. The area under ROC (AUROC) and PI cutoff value was identified.Multiple Cox regression analysis of prediction model group showed that neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio, histological grade, microvascular invasion, positive resection margin, number of tumor, and postoperative transcatheter arterial chemoembolization treatment were the independent predictors for the 5-year survival rate for HCC patients. The model was PI = 0.377 × NLR + 0.554 × HG + 0.927 × PRM + 0.778 × MVI + 0.740 × NT - 0.831 × transcatheter arterial chemoembolization (TACE). In the prediction model group, AUROC was 0.832 and the PI cutoff value was 3.38. The sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy were 78.0%, 80%, and 79.2%, respectively. In model evaluation group, AUROC was 0.822, and the PI cutoff value was well corresponded to the prediction model group with sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy of 85.0%, 83.3%, and 84.0%, respectively.The PI model can quantify the mortality risk of hepatitis B related HCC with high sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy.

  16. A prediction model for assessing residential radon concentration in Switzerland

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hauri, Dimitri D.; Huss, Anke; Zimmermann, Frank; Kuehni, Claudia E.; Röösli, Martin

    2012-01-01

    Indoor radon is regularly measured in Switzerland. However, a nationwide model to predict residential radon levels has not been developed. The aim of this study was to develop a prediction model to assess indoor radon concentrations in Switzerland. The model was based on 44,631 measurements from the nationwide Swiss radon database collected between 1994 and 2004. Of these, 80% randomly selected measurements were used for model development and the remaining 20% for an independent model validation. A multivariable log-linear regression model was fitted and relevant predictors selected according to evidence from the literature, the adjusted R², the Akaike's information criterion (AIC), and the Bayesian information criterion (BIC). The prediction model was evaluated by calculating Spearman rank correlation between measured and predicted values. Additionally, the predicted values were categorised into three categories (50th, 50th–90th and 90th percentile) and compared with measured categories using a weighted Kappa statistic. The most relevant predictors for indoor radon levels were tectonic units and year of construction of the building, followed by soil texture, degree of urbanisation, floor of the building where the measurement was taken and housing type (P-values <0.001 for all). Mean predicted radon values (geometric mean) were 66 Bq/m³ (interquartile range 40–111 Bq/m³) in the lowest exposure category, 126 Bq/m³ (69–215 Bq/m³) in the medium category, and 219 Bq/m³ (108–427 Bq/m³) in the highest category. Spearman correlation between predictions and measurements was 0.45 (95%-CI: 0.44; 0.46) for the development dataset and 0.44 (95%-CI: 0.42; 0.46) for the validation dataset. Kappa coefficients were 0.31 for the development and 0.30 for the validation dataset, respectively. The model explained 20% overall variability (adjusted R²). In conclusion, this residential radon prediction model, based on a large number of measurements, was demonstrated to be

  17. The SM and MIR reactors operation experience

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kuprienko, V.A.; Klinov, A.V.; Svyatkin, M.N.; Shamardin, V.K.

    1995-01-01

    The SM and MIR operation experience show that continuous work on the problem of ageing, in all its aspects, allows for prolongation of the research plant life cycle by several folds as compared to the initial project. The redesigned SM-3 reactor will operate for another 20 years. The similar result is expected from the MIR planned reconstruction which scope will be the topic of future presentations. (orig.)

  18. Comparison of Linear Prediction Models for Audio Signals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available While linear prediction (LP has become immensely popular in speech modeling, it does not seem to provide a good approach for modeling audio signals. This is somewhat surprising, since a tonal signal consisting of a number of sinusoids can be perfectly predicted based on an (all-pole LP model with a model order that is twice the number of sinusoids. We provide an explanation why this result cannot simply be extrapolated to LP of audio signals. If noise is taken into account in the tonal signal model, a low-order all-pole model appears to be only appropriate when the tonal components are uniformly distributed in the Nyquist interval. Based on this observation, different alternatives to the conventional LP model can be suggested. Either the model should be changed to a pole-zero, a high-order all-pole, or a pitch prediction model, or the conventional LP model should be preceded by an appropriate frequency transform, such as a frequency warping or downsampling. By comparing these alternative LP models to the conventional LP model in terms of frequency estimation accuracy, residual spectral flatness, and perceptual frequency resolution, we obtain several new and promising approaches to LP-based audio modeling.

  19. State-space prediction model for chaotic time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alparslan, A. K.; Sayar, M.; Atilgan, A. R.

    1998-08-01

    A simple method for predicting the continuation of scalar chaotic time series ahead in time is proposed. The false nearest neighbors technique in connection with the time-delayed embedding is employed so as to reconstruct the state space. A local forecasting model based upon the time evolution of the topological neighboring in the reconstructed phase space is suggested. A moving root-mean-square error is utilized in order to monitor the error along the prediction horizon. The model is tested for the convection amplitude of the Lorenz model. The results indicate that for approximately 100 cycles of the training data, the prediction follows the actual continuation very closely about six cycles. The proposed model, like other state-space forecasting models, captures the long-term behavior of the system due to the use of spatial neighbors in the state space.

  20. Predicting artificailly drained areas by means of selective model ensemble

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Anders Bjørn; Beucher, Amélie; Iversen, Bo Vangsø

    . The approaches employed include decision trees, discriminant analysis, regression models, neural networks and support vector machines amongst others. Several models are trained with each method, using variously the original soil covariates and principal components of the covariates. With a large ensemble...... out since the mid-19th century, and it has been estimated that half of the cultivated area is artificially drained (Olesen, 2009). A number of machine learning approaches can be used to predict artificially drained areas in geographic space. However, instead of choosing the most accurate model....... The study aims firstly to train a large number of models to predict the extent of artificially drained areas using various machine learning approaches. Secondly, the study will develop a method for selecting the models, which give a good prediction of artificially drained areas, when used in conjunction...

  1. An intermittency model for predicting roughness induced transition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ge, Xuan; Durbin, Paul

    2014-11-01

    An extended model for roughness-induced transition is proposed based on an intermittency transport equation for RANS modeling formulated in local variables. To predict roughness effects in the fully turbulent boundary layer, published boundary conditions for k and ω are used, which depend on the equivalent sand grain roughness height, and account for the effective displacement of wall distance origin. Similarly in our approach, wall distance in the transition model for smooth surfaces is modified by an effective origin, which depends on roughness. Flat plate test cases are computed to show that the proposed model is able to predict the transition onset in agreement with a data correlation of transition location versus roughness height, Reynolds number, and inlet turbulence intensity. Experimental data for a turbine cascade are compared with the predicted results to validate the applicability of the proposed model. Supported by NSF Award Number 1228195.

  2. Driver's mental workload prediction model based on physiological indices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Shengyuan; Tran, Cong Chi; Wei, Yingying; Habiyaremye, Jean Luc

    2017-09-15

    Developing an early warning model to predict the driver's mental workload (MWL) is critical and helpful, especially for new or less experienced drivers. The present study aims to investigate the correlation between new drivers' MWL and their work performance, regarding the number of errors. Additionally, the group method of data handling is used to establish the driver's MWL predictive model based on subjective rating (NASA task load index [NASA-TLX]) and six physiological indices. The results indicate that the NASA-TLX and the number of errors are positively correlated, and the predictive model shows the validity of the proposed model with an R 2 value of 0.745. The proposed model is expected to provide a reference value for the new drivers of their MWL by providing the physiological indices, and the driving lesson plans can be proposed to sustain an appropriate MWL as well as improve the driver's work performance.

  3. Modeling, Prediction, and Control of Heating Temperature for Tube Billet

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yachun Mao

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Annular furnaces have multivariate, nonlinear, large time lag, and cross coupling characteristics. The prediction and control of the exit temperature of a tube billet are important but difficult. We establish a prediction model for the final temperature of a tube billet through OS-ELM-DRPLS method. We address the complex production characteristics, integrate the advantages of PLS and ELM algorithms in establishing linear and nonlinear models, and consider model update and data lag. Based on the proposed model, we design a prediction control algorithm for tube billet temperature. The algorithm is validated using the practical production data of Baosteel Co., Ltd. Results show that the model achieves the precision required in industrial applications. The temperature of the tube billet can be controlled within the required temperature range through compensation control method.

  4. A model for predicting lung cancer response to therapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seibert, Rebecca M.; Ramsey, Chester R.; Hines, J. Wesley; Kupelian, Patrick A.; Langen, Katja M.; Meeks, Sanford L.; Scaperoth, Daniel D.

    2007-01-01

    Purpose: Volumetric computed tomography (CT) images acquired by image-guided radiation therapy (IGRT) systems can be used to measure tumor response over the course of treatment. Predictive adaptive therapy is a novel treatment technique that uses volumetric IGRT data to actively predict the future tumor response to therapy during the first few weeks of IGRT treatment. The goal of this study was to develop and test a model for predicting lung tumor response during IGRT treatment using serial megavoltage CT (MVCT). Methods and Materials: Tumor responses were measured for 20 lung cancer lesions in 17 patients that were imaged and treated with helical tomotherapy with doses ranging from 2.0 to 2.5 Gy per fraction. Five patients were treated with concurrent chemotherapy, and 1 patient was treated with neoadjuvant chemotherapy. Tumor response to treatment was retrospectively measured by contouring 480 serial MVCT images acquired before treatment. A nonparametric, memory-based locally weight regression (LWR) model was developed for predicting tumor response using the retrospective tumor response data. This model predicts future tumor volumes and the associated confidence intervals based on limited observations during the first 2 weeks of treatment. The predictive accuracy of the model was tested using a leave-one-out cross-validation technique with the measured tumor responses. Results: The predictive algorithm was used to compare predicted verse-measured tumor volume response for all 20 lesions. The average error for the predictions of the final tumor volume was 12%, with the true volumes always bounded by the 95% confidence interval. The greatest model uncertainty occurred near the middle of the course of treatment, in which the tumor response relationships were more complex, the model has less information, and the predictors were more varied. The optimal days for measuring the tumor response on the MVCT images were on elapsed Days 1, 2, 5, 9, 11, 12, 17, and 18 during

  5. Updated climatological model predictions of ionospheric and HF propagation parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reilly, M.H.; Rhoads, F.J.; Goodman, J.M.; Singh, M.

    1991-01-01

    The prediction performances of several climatological models, including the ionospheric conductivity and electron density model, RADAR C, and Ionospheric Communications Analysis and Predictions Program, are evaluated for different regions and sunspot number inputs. Particular attention is given to the near-real-time (NRT) predictions associated with single-station updates. It is shown that a dramatic improvement can be obtained by using single-station ionospheric data to update the driving parameters for an ionospheric model for NRT predictions of f(0)F2 and other ionospheric and HF circuit parameters. For middle latitudes, the improvement extends out thousands of kilometers from the update point to points of comparable corrected geomagnetic latitude. 10 refs

  6. Modelling earth current precursors in earthquake prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Di Maio

    1997-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with the theory of earth current precursors of earthquake. A dilatancy-diffusion-polarization model is proposed to explain the anomalies of the electric potential, which are observed on the ground surface prior to some earthquakes. The electric polarization is believed to be the electrokinetic effect due to the invasion of fluids into new pores, which are opened inside a stressed-dilated rock body. The time and space variation of the distribution of the electric potential in a layered earth as well as in a faulted half-space is studied in detail. It results that the surface response depends on the underground conductivity distribution and on the relative disposition of the measuring dipole with respect to the buried bipole source. A field procedure based on the use of an areal layout of the recording sites is proposed, in order to obtain the most complete information on the time and space evolution of the precursory phenomena in any given seismic region.

  7. Gamma ray irradiation characteristics of SM fibers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ito, Ryuichi; Okano, Hiroaki; Hashiba, Keichi; Nakai, Hisanori

    1987-01-01

    1.3 μm range single mode (SM) optical fibers have been used for wide application of mainly long distance communication. At present, in order to realize the larger capacity and longer distance between relay points, the development of 1.5 μm range SM fibers of low dispersion and small loss has been actively promoted. As for the radiation withstanding property of SM fibers, report is scarce. The authors reported on the gamma ray irradiation characteristics of 1.3 μm range SM fibers, but since 1.5 μm range SM fibers are designed with the different structure from that of 1.3 μm fibers, it is necessary to evaluate from new viewpoint. In this report, mainly on the structure having triangular distribution, the effect that the manufacturing condition and the structural defects of glass exert on the gamma ray irradiation characteristics is described. The specimens were mainly dispersion shift type fibers (DSF), and for comparison, single window, double window and 1.3 μm SM fibers were examined. Co-60 gamma ray was irradiated, and the optical loss and electron spin resonance were measured. By low temperature and low speed drawing, the good result in the optical loss was obtained. The presence of oxygen at the time of sintering materials had no effect. The dependence of the ESR on the drawing condition was not very remarkable. (Kako, I.)

  8. Predictive modeling of coupled multi-physics systems: I. Theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cacuci, Dan Gabriel

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • We developed “predictive modeling of coupled multi-physics systems (PMCMPS)”. • PMCMPS reduces predicted uncertainties in predicted model responses and parameters. • PMCMPS treats efficiently very large coupled systems. - Abstract: This work presents an innovative mathematical methodology for “predictive modeling of coupled multi-physics systems (PMCMPS).” This methodology takes into account fully the coupling terms between the systems but requires only the computational resources that would be needed to perform predictive modeling on each system separately. The PMCMPS methodology uses the maximum entropy principle to construct an optimal approximation of the unknown a priori distribution based on a priori known mean values and uncertainties characterizing the parameters and responses for both multi-physics models. This “maximum entropy”-approximate a priori distribution is combined, using Bayes’ theorem, with the “likelihood” provided by the multi-physics simulation models. Subsequently, the posterior distribution thus obtained is evaluated using the saddle-point method to obtain analytical expressions for the optimally predicted values for the multi-physics models parameters and responses along with corresponding reduced uncertainties. Noteworthy, the predictive modeling methodology for the coupled systems is constructed such that the systems can be considered sequentially rather than simultaneously, while preserving exactly the same results as if the systems were treated simultaneously. Consequently, very large coupled systems, which could perhaps exceed available computational resources if treated simultaneously, can be treated with the PMCMPS methodology presented in this work sequentially and without any loss of generality or information, requiring just the resources that would be needed if the systems were treated sequentially

  9. Embryo quality predictive models based on cumulus cells gene expression

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Devjak R

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Since the introduction of in vitro fertilization (IVF in clinical practice of infertility treatment, the indicators for high quality embryos were investigated. Cumulus cells (CC have a specific gene expression profile according to the developmental potential of the oocyte they are surrounding, and therefore, specific gene expression could be used as a biomarker. The aim of our study was to combine more than one biomarker to observe improvement in prediction value of embryo development. In this study, 58 CC samples from 17 IVF patients were analyzed. This study was approved by the Republic of Slovenia National Medical Ethics Committee. Gene expression analysis [quantitative real time polymerase chain reaction (qPCR] for five genes, analyzed according to embryo quality level, was performed. Two prediction models were tested for embryo quality prediction: a binary logistic and a decision tree model. As the main outcome, gene expression levels for five genes were taken and the area under the curve (AUC for two prediction models were calculated. Among tested genes, AMHR2 and LIF showed significant expression difference between high quality and low quality embryos. These two genes were used for the construction of two prediction models: the binary logistic model yielded an AUC of 0.72 ± 0.08 and the decision tree model yielded an AUC of 0.73 ± 0.03. Two different prediction models yielded similar predictive power to differentiate high and low quality embryos. In terms of eventual clinical decision making, the decision tree model resulted in easy-to-interpret rules that are highly applicable in clinical practice.

  10. Comparison of Predictive Modeling Methods of Aircraft Landing Speed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diallo, Ousmane H.

    2012-01-01

    Expected increases in air traffic demand have stimulated the development of air traffic control tools intended to assist the air traffic controller in accurately and precisely spacing aircraft landing at congested airports. Such tools will require an accurate landing-speed prediction to increase throughput while decreasing necessary controller interventions for avoiding separation violations. There are many practical challenges to developing an accurate landing-speed model that has acceptable prediction errors. This paper discusses the development of a near-term implementation, using readily available information, to estimate/model final approach speed from the top of the descent phase of flight to the landing runway. As a first approach, all variables found to contribute directly to the landing-speed prediction model are used to build a multi-regression technique of the response surface equation (RSE). Data obtained from operations of a major airlines for a passenger transport aircraft type to the Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport are used to predict the landing speed. The approach was promising because it decreased the standard deviation of the landing-speed error prediction by at least 18% from the standard deviation of the baseline error, depending on the gust condition at the airport. However, when the number of variables is reduced to the most likely obtainable at other major airports, the RSE model shows little improvement over the existing methods. Consequently, a neural network that relies on a nonlinear regression technique is utilized as an alternative modeling approach. For the reduced number of variables cases, the standard deviation of the neural network models errors represent over 5% reduction compared to the RSE model errors, and at least 10% reduction over the baseline predicted landing-speed error standard deviation. Overall, the constructed models predict the landing-speed more accurately and precisely than the current state-of-the-art.

  11. Individualized prediction of perineural invasion in colorectal cancer: development and validation of a radiomics prediction model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Yanqi; He, Lan; Dong, Di; Yang, Caiyun; Liang, Cuishan; Chen, Xin; Ma, Zelan; Huang, Xiaomei; Yao, Su; Liang, Changhong; Tian, Jie; Liu, Zaiyi

    2018-02-01

    To develop and validate a radiomics prediction model for individualized prediction of perineural invasion (PNI) in colorectal cancer (CRC). After computed tomography (CT) radiomics features extraction, a radiomics signature was constructed in derivation cohort (346 CRC patients). A prediction model was developed to integrate the radiomics signature and clinical candidate predictors [age, sex, tumor location, and carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) level]. Apparent prediction performance was assessed. After internal validation, independent temporal validation (separate from the cohort used to build the model) was then conducted in 217 CRC patients. The final model was converted to an easy-to-use nomogram. The developed radiomics nomogram that integrated the radiomics signature and CEA level showed good calibration and discrimination performance [Harrell's concordance index (c-index): 0.817; 95% confidence interval (95% CI): 0.811-0.823]. Application of the nomogram in validation cohort gave a comparable calibration and discrimination (c-index: 0.803; 95% CI: 0.794-0.812). Integrating the radiomics signature and CEA level into a radiomics prediction model enables easy and effective risk assessment of PNI in CRC. This stratification of patients according to their PNI status may provide a basis for individualized auxiliary treatment.

  12. Longitudinal modeling to predict vital capacity in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jahandideh, Samad; Taylor, Albert A; Beaulieu, Danielle; Keymer, Mike; Meng, Lisa; Bian, Amy; Atassi, Nazem; Andrews, Jinsy; Ennist, David L

    2018-05-01

    Death in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) patients is related to respiratory failure, which is assessed in clinical settings by measuring vital capacity. We developed ALS-VC, a modeling tool for longitudinal prediction of vital capacity in ALS patients. A gradient boosting machine (GBM) model was trained using the PRO-ACT (Pooled Resource Open-access ALS Clinical Trials) database of over 10,000 ALS patient records. We hypothesized that a reliable vital capacity predictive model could be developed using PRO-ACT. The model was used to compare FVC predictions with a 30-day run-in period to predictions made from just baseline. The internal root mean square deviations (RMSD) of the run-in and baseline models were 0.534 and 0.539, respectively, across the 7L FVC range captured in PRO-ACT. The RMSDs of the run-in and baseline models using an unrelated, contemporary external validation dataset (0.553 and 0.538, respectively) were comparable to the internal validation. The model was shown to have similar accuracy for predicting SVC (RMSD = 0.562). The most important features for both run-in and baseline models were "Baseline forced vital capacity" and "Days since baseline." We developed ALS-VC, a GBM model trained with the PRO-ACT ALS dataset that provides vital capacity predictions generalizable to external datasets. The ALS-VC model could be helpful in advising and counseling patients, and, in clinical trials, it could be used to generate virtual control arms against which observed outcomes could be compared, or used to stratify patients into slowly, average, and rapidly progressing subgroups.

  13. Prediction error, ketamine and psychosis: An updated model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corlett, Philip R; Honey, Garry D; Fletcher, Paul C

    2016-11-01

    In 2007, we proposed an explanation of delusion formation as aberrant prediction error-driven associative learning. Further, we argued that the NMDA receptor antagonist ketamine provided a good model for this process. Subsequently, we validated the model in patients with psychosis, relating aberrant prediction error signals to delusion severity. During the ensuing period, we have developed these ideas, drawing on the simple principle that brains build a model of the world and refine it by minimising prediction errors, as well as using it to guide perceptual inferences. While previously we focused on the prediction error signal per se, an updated view takes into account its precision, as well as the precision of prior expectations. With this expanded perspective, we see several possible routes to psychotic symptoms - which may explain the heterogeneity of psychotic illness, as well as the fact that other drugs, with different pharmacological actions, can produce psychotomimetic effects. In this article, we review the basic principles of this model and highlight specific ways in which prediction errors can be perturbed, in particular considering the reliability and uncertainty of predictions. The expanded model explains hallucinations as perturbations of the uncertainty mediated balance between expectation and prediction error. Here, expectations dominate and create perceptions by suppressing or ignoring actual inputs. Negative symptoms may arise due to poor reliability of predictions in service of action. By mapping from biology to belief and perception, the account proffers new explanations of psychosis. However, challenges remain. We attempt to address some of these concerns and suggest future directions, incorporating other symptoms into the model, building towards better understanding of psychosis. © The Author(s) 2016.

  14. Predicting soil acidification trends at Plynlimon using the SAFE model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Reynolds

    1997-01-01

    Full Text Available The SAFE model has been applied to an acid grassland site, located on base-poor stagnopodzol soils derived from Lower Palaeozoic greywackes. The model predicts that acidification of the soil has occurred in response to increased acid deposition following the industrial revolution. Limited recovery is predicted following the decline in sulphur deposition during the mid to late 1970s. Reducing excess sulphur and NOx deposition in 1998 to 40% and 70% of 1980 levels results in further recovery but soil chemical conditions (base saturation, soil water pH and ANC do not return to values predicted in pre-industrial times. The SAFE model predicts that critical loads (expressed in terms of the (Ca+Mg+K:Alcrit ratio for six vegetation species found in acid grassland communities are not exceeded despite the increase in deposited acidity following the industrial revolution. The relative growth response of selected vegetation species characteristic of acid grassland swards has been predicted using a damage function linking growth to soil solution base cation to aluminium ratio. The results show that very small growth reductions can be expected for 'acid tolerant' plants growing in acid upland soils. For more sensitive species such as Holcus lanatus, SAFE predicts that growth would have been reduced by about 20% between 1951 and 1983, when acid inputs were greatest. Recovery to c. 90% of normal growth (under laboratory conditions is predicted as acidic inputs decline.

  15. A deep auto-encoder model for gene expression prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Rui; Wen, Jia; Quitadamo, Andrew; Cheng, Jianlin; Shi, Xinghua

    2017-11-17

    Gene expression is a key intermediate level that genotypes lead to a particular trait. Gene expression is affected by various factors including genotypes of genetic variants. With an aim of delineating the genetic impact on gene expression, we build a deep auto-encoder model to assess how good genetic variants will contribute to gene expression changes. This new deep learning model is a regression-based predictive model based on the MultiLayer Perceptron and Stacked Denoising Auto-encoder (MLP-SAE). The model is trained using a stacked denoising auto-encoder for feature selection and a multilayer perceptron framework for backpropagation. We further improve the model by introducing dropout to prevent overfitting and improve performance. To demonstrate the usage of this model, we apply MLP-SAE to a real genomic datasets with genotypes and gene expression profiles measured in yeast. Our results show that the MLP-SAE model with dropout outperforms other models including Lasso, Random Forests and the MLP-SAE model without dropout. Using the MLP-SAE model with dropout, we show that gene expression quantifications predicted by the model solely based on genotypes, align well with true gene expression patterns. We provide a deep auto-encoder model for predicting gene expression from SNP genotypes. This study demonstrates that deep learning is appropriate for tackling another genomic problem, i.e., building predictive models to understand genotypes' contribution to gene expression. With the emerging availability of richer genomic data, we anticipate that deep learning models play a bigger role in modeling and interpreting genomics.

  16. Predictive modeling of coral disease distribution within a reef system.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gareth J Williams

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available Diseases often display complex and distinct associations with their environment due to differences in etiology, modes of transmission between hosts, and the shifting balance between pathogen virulence and host resistance. Statistical modeling has been underutilized in coral disease research to explore the spatial patterns that result from this triad of interactions. We tested the hypotheses that: 1 coral diseases show distinct associations with multiple environmental factors, 2 incorporating interactions (synergistic collinearities among environmental variables is important when predicting coral disease spatial patterns, and 3 modeling overall coral disease prevalence (the prevalence of multiple diseases as a single proportion value will increase predictive error relative to modeling the same diseases independently. Four coral diseases: Porites growth anomalies (PorGA, Porites tissue loss (PorTL, Porites trematodiasis (PorTrem, and Montipora white syndrome (MWS, and their interactions with 17 predictor variables were modeled using boosted regression trees (BRT within a reef system in Hawaii. Each disease showed distinct associations with the predictors. Environmental predictors showing the strongest overall associations with the coral diseases were both biotic and abiotic. PorGA was optimally predicted by a negative association with turbidity, PorTL and MWS by declines in butterflyfish and juvenile parrotfish abundance respectively, and PorTrem by a modal relationship with Porites host cover. Incorporating interactions among predictor variables contributed to the predictive power of our models, particularly for PorTrem. Combining diseases (using overall disease prevalence as the model response, led to an average six-fold increase in cross-validation predictive deviance over modeling the diseases individually. We therefore recommend coral diseases to be modeled separately, unless known to have etiologies that respond in a similar manner to

  17. Plant water potential improves prediction of empirical stomatal models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    William R L Anderegg

    Full Text Available Climate change is expected to lead to increases in drought frequency and severity, with deleterious effects on many ecosystems. Stomatal responses to changing environmental conditions form the backbone of all ecosystem models, but are based on empirical relationships and are not well-tested during drought conditions. Here, we use a dataset of 34 woody plant species spanning global forest biomes to examine the effect of leaf water potential on stomatal conductance and test the predictive accuracy of three major stomatal models and a recently proposed model. We find that current leaf-level empirical models have consistent biases of over-prediction of stomatal conductance during dry conditions, particularly at low soil water potentials. Furthermore, the recently proposed stomatal conductance model yields increases in predictive capability compared to current models, and with particular improvement during drought conditions. Our results reveal that including stomatal sensitivity to declining water potential and consequent impairment of plant water transport will improve predictions during drought conditions and show that many biomes contain a diversity of plant stomatal strategies that range from risky to conservative stomatal regulation during water stress. Such improvements in stomatal simulation are greatly needed to help unravel and predict the response of ecosystems to future climate extremes.

  18. Cross-Validation of Aerobic Capacity Prediction Models in Adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burns, Ryan Donald; Hannon, James C; Brusseau, Timothy A; Eisenman, Patricia A; Saint-Maurice, Pedro F; Welk, Greg J; Mahar, Matthew T

    2015-08-01

    Cardiorespiratory endurance is a component of health-related fitness. FITNESSGRAM recommends the Progressive Aerobic Cardiovascular Endurance Run (PACER) or One mile Run/Walk (1MRW) to assess cardiorespiratory endurance by estimating VO2 Peak. No research has cross-validated prediction models from both PACER and 1MRW, including the New PACER Model and PACER-Mile Equivalent (PACER-MEQ) using current standards. The purpose of this study was to cross-validate prediction models from PACER and 1MRW against measured VO2 Peak in adolescents. Cardiorespiratory endurance data were collected on 90 adolescents aged 13-16 years (Mean = 14.7 ± 1.3 years; 32 girls, 52 boys) who completed the PACER and 1MRW in addition to a laboratory maximal treadmill test to measure VO2 Peak. Multiple correlations among various models with measured VO2 Peak were considered moderately strong (R = .74-0.78), and prediction error (RMSE) ranged from 5.95 ml·kg⁻¹,min⁻¹ to 8.27 ml·kg⁻¹.min⁻¹. Criterion-referenced agreement into FITNESSGRAM's Healthy Fitness Zones was considered fair-to-good among models (Kappa = 0.31-0.62; Agreement = 75.5-89.9%; F = 0.08-0.65). In conclusion, prediction models demonstrated moderately strong linear relationships with measured VO2 Peak, fair prediction error, and fair-to-good criterion referenced agreement with measured VO2 Peak into FITNESSGRAM's Healthy Fitness Zones.

  19. Comparison of the models of financial distress prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiří Omelka

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Prediction of the financial distress is generally supposed as approximation if a business entity is closed on bankruptcy or at least on serious financial problems. Financial distress is defined as such a situation when a company is not able to satisfy its liabilities in any forms, or when its liabilities are higher than its assets. Classification of financial situation of business entities represents a multidisciplinary scientific issue that uses not only the economic theoretical bases but interacts to the statistical, respectively to econometric approaches as well.The first models of financial distress prediction have originated in the sixties of the 20th century. One of the most known is the Altman’s model followed by a range of others which are constructed on more or less conformable bases. In many existing models it is possible to find common elements which could be marked as elementary indicators of potential financial distress of a company. The objective of this article is, based on the comparison of existing models of prediction of financial distress, to define the set of basic indicators of company’s financial distress at conjoined identification of their critical aspects. The sample defined this way will be a background for future research focused on determination of one-dimensional model of financial distress prediction which would subsequently become a basis for construction of multi-dimensional prediction model.

  20. Predictive assessment of models for dynamic functional connectivity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Søren Føns Vind; Schmidt, Mikkel Nørgaard; Madsen, Kristoffer Hougaard

    2018-01-01

    represent functional brain networks as a meta-stable process with a discrete number of states; however, there is a lack of consensus on how to perform model selection and learn the number of states, as well as a lack of understanding of how different modeling assumptions influence the estimated state......In neuroimaging, it has become evident that models of dynamic functional connectivity (dFC), which characterize how intrinsic brain organization changes over time, can provide a more detailed representation of brain function than traditional static analyses. Many dFC models in the literature...... dynamics. To address these issues, we consider a predictive likelihood approach to model assessment, where models are evaluated based on their predictive performance on held-out test data. Examining several prominent models of dFC (in their probabilistic formulations) we demonstrate our framework...

  1. SHMF: Interest Prediction Model with Social Hub Matrix Factorization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chaoyuan Cui

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available With the development of social networks, microblog has become the major social communication tool. There is a lot of valuable information such as personal preference, public opinion, and marketing in microblog. Consequently, research on user interest prediction in microblog has a positive practical significance. In fact, how to extract information associated with user interest orientation from the constantly updated blog posts is not so easy. Existing prediction approaches based on probabilistic factor analysis use blog posts published by user to predict user interest. However, these methods are not very effective for the users who post less but browse more. In this paper, we propose a new prediction model, which is called SHMF, using social hub matrix factorization. SHMF constructs the interest prediction model by combining the information of blogs posts published by both user and direct neighbors in user’s social hub. Our proposed model predicts user interest by integrating user’s historical behavior and temporal factor as well as user’s friendships, thus achieving accurate forecasts of user’s future interests. The experimental results on Sina Weibo show the efficiency and effectiveness of our proposed model.

  2. Prediction Models and Decision Support: Chances and Challenges

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kappen, T.H.

    2015-01-01

    A clinical prediction model can assist doctors in arriving at the most likely diagnosis or estimating the prognosis. By utilizing various patient- and disease-related properties, such models can yield objective estimations of the risk of a disease or the probability of a certain disease course for

  3. A model to predict the sound reflection from forests

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wunderli, J.M.; Salomons, E.M.

    2009-01-01

    A model is presented to predict the reflection of sound at forest edges. A single tree is modelled as a vertical cylinder. For the reflection at a cylinder an analytical solution is given based on the theory of scattering of spherical waves. The entire forest is represented by a line of cylinders

  4. Computationally efficient model predictive control algorithms a neural network approach

    CERN Document Server

    Ławryńczuk, Maciej

    2014-01-01

    This book thoroughly discusses computationally efficient (suboptimal) Model Predictive Control (MPC) techniques based on neural models. The subjects treated include: ·         A few types of suboptimal MPC algorithms in which a linear approximation of the model or of the predicted trajectory is successively calculated on-line and used for prediction. ·         Implementation details of the MPC algorithms for feedforward perceptron neural models, neural Hammerstein models, neural Wiener models and state-space neural models. ·         The MPC algorithms based on neural multi-models (inspired by the idea of predictive control). ·         The MPC algorithms with neural approximation with no on-line linearization. ·         The MPC algorithms with guaranteed stability and robustness. ·         Cooperation between the MPC algorithms and set-point optimization. Thanks to linearization (or neural approximation), the presented suboptimal algorithms do not require d...

  5. Prediction of speech intelligibility based on an auditory preprocessing model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christiansen, Claus Forup Corlin; Pedersen, Michael Syskind; Dau, Torsten

    2010-01-01

    in noise experiment was used for training and an ideal binary mask experiment was used for evaluation. All three models were able to capture the trends in the speech in noise training data well, but the proposed model provides a better prediction of the binary mask test data, particularly when the binary...... masks degenerate to a noise vocoder....

  6. Predictive ability of boiler production models | Ogundu | Animal ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The weekly body weight measurements of a growing strain of Ross broiler were used to compare the of ability of three mathematical models (the multi, linear, quadratic and Exponential) to predict 8 week body weight from early body measurements at weeks I, II, III, IV, V, VI and VII. The results suggest that the three models ...

  7. Inferential ecosystem models, from network data to prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    James S. Clark; Pankaj Agarwal; David M. Bell; Paul G. Flikkema; Alan Gelfand; Xuanlong Nguyen; Eric Ward; Jun Yang

    2011-01-01

    Recent developments suggest that predictive modeling could begin to play a larger role not only for data analysis, but also for data collection. We address the example of efficient wireless sensor networks, where inferential ecosystem models can be used to weigh the value of an observation against the cost of data collection. Transmission costs make observations ‘‘...

  8. Validation of a multi-objective, predictive urban traffic model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wilmink, I.R.; Haak, P. van den; Woldeab, Z.; Vreeswijk, J.

    2013-01-01

    This paper describes the results of the verification and validation of the ecoStrategic Model, which was developed, implemented and tested in the eCoMove project. The model uses real-time and historical traffic information to determine the current, predicted and desired state of traffic in a

  9. Predicting the ungauged basin : Model validation and realism assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Emmerik, T.H.M.; Mulder, G.; Eilander, D.; Piet, M.; Savenije, H.H.G.

    2015-01-01

    The hydrological decade on Predictions in Ungauged Basins (PUB) led to many new insights in model development, calibration strategies, data acquisition and uncertainty analysis. Due to a limited amount of published studies on genuinely ungauged basins, model validation and realism assessment of

  10. Modelling and prediction of non-stationary optical turbulence behaviour

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Doelman, N.J.; Osborn, J.

    2016-01-01

    There is a strong need to model the temporal fluctuations in turbulence parameters, for instance for scheduling, simulation and prediction purposes. This paper aims at modelling the dynamic behaviour of the turbulence coherence length r0, utilising measurement data from the Stereo-SCIDAR instrument

  11. A Mathematical Model for the Prediction of Injectivity Decline | Odeh ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Injectivity impairment due to invasion of solid suspensions has been studied by several investigators and some modelling approaches have also been reported. Worthy of note is the development of analytical models for internal and external filtration coupled with transition time concept for predicting the overall decline in ...

  12. Mathematical Model for Prediction of Flexural Strength of Mound ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The mound soil-cement blended proportions were mathematically optimized by using scheffe's approach and the optimization model developed. A computer program predicting the mix proportion for the model was written. The optimal proportion by the program was used prepare beam samples measuring 150mm x 150mm ...

  13. Predictive Model Equations for Palm Kernel (Elaeis guneensis J ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Estimated error of ± 0.18 and ± 0.2 are envisaged while applying the models for predicting palm kernel and sesame oil colours respectively. Keywords: Palm kernel, Sesame, Palm kernel, Oil Colour, Process Parameters, Model. Journal of Applied Science, Engineering and Technology Vol. 6 (1) 2006 pp. 34-38 ...

  14. Predicting the ungauged basin: model validation and realism assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Emmerik, Tim; Mulder, Gert; Eilander, Dirk; Piet, Marijn; Savenije, Hubert

    2015-01-01

    The hydrological decade on Predictions in Ungauged Basins (PUB) led to many new insights in model development, calibration strategies, data acquisition and uncertainty analysis. Due to a limited amount of published studies on genuinely ungauged basins, model validation and realism assessment of

  15. A theoretical model for predicting neutron fluxes for cyclic Neutron ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A theoretical model has been developed for prediction of thermal neutron fluxes required for cyclic irradiations of a sample to obtain the same activity previously used for the detection of any radionuclide of interest. The model is suitable for radiotracer production or for long-lived neutron activation products where the ...

  16. Model Predictive Control for Offset-Free Reference Tracking

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Belda, Květoslav

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 5, č. 1 (2016), s. 8-13 ISSN 1805-3386 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : offset-free reference tracking * predictive control * ARX model * state-space model * multi-input multi-output system * robotic system * mechatronic system Subject RIV: BC - Control Systems Theory http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2016/AS/belda-0458355.pdf

  17. Modeling the Temporal Nature of Human Behavior for Demographics Prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Felbo, Bjarke; Sundsøy, Pål; Pentland, Alex

    2017-01-01

    Mobile phone metadata is increasingly used for humanitarian purposes in developing countries as traditional data is scarce. Basic demographic information is however often absent from mobile phone datasets, limiting the operational impact of the datasets. For these reasons, there has been a growing...... interest in predicting demographic information from mobile phone metadata. Previous work focused on creating increasingly advanced features to be modeled with standard machine learning algorithms. We here instead model the raw mobile phone metadata directly using deep learning, exploiting the temporal...... on both age and gender prediction using only the temporal modality in mobile metadata. We finally validate our method on low activity users and evaluate the modeling assumptions....

  18. Numerical Modelling and Prediction of Erosion Induced by Hydrodynamic Cavitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peters, A.; Lantermann, U.; el Moctar, O.

    2015-12-01

    The present work aims to predict cavitation erosion using a numerical flow solver together with a new developed erosion model. The erosion model is based on the hypothesis that collapses of single cavitation bubbles near solid boundaries form high velocity microjets, which cause sonic impacts with high pressure amplitudes damaging the surface. The erosion model uses information from a numerical Euler-Euler flow simulation to predict erosion sensitive areas and assess the erosion aggressiveness of the flow. The obtained numerical results were compared to experimental results from tests of an axisymmetric nozzle.

  19. Robust Output Model Predictive Control of an Unstable Rijke Tube

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fabian Jarmolowitz

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This work investigates the active control of an unstable Rijke tube using robust output model predictive control (RMPC. As internal model a polytopic linear system with constraints is assumed to account for uncertainties. For guaranteed stability, a linear state feedback controller is designed using linear matrix inequalities and used within a feedback formulation of the model predictive controller. For state estimation a robust gain-scheduled observer is developed. It is shown that the proposed RMPC ensures robust stability under constraints over the considered operating range.

  20. Bayesian Genomic Prediction with Genotype × Environment Interaction Kernel Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cuevas, Jaime; Crossa, José; Montesinos-López, Osval A.; Burgueño, Juan; Pérez-Rodríguez, Paulino; de los Campos, Gustavo

    2016-01-01

    The phenomenon of genotype × environment (G × E) interaction in plant breeding decreases selection accuracy, thereby negatively affecting genetic gains. Several genomic prediction models incorporating G × E have been recently developed and used in genomic selection of plant breeding programs. Genomic prediction models for assessing multi-environment G × E interaction are extensions of a single-environment model, and have advantages and limitations. In this study, we propose two multi-environment Bayesian genomic models: the first model considers genetic effects (u) that can be assessed by the Kronecker product of variance–covariance matrices of genetic correlations between environments and genomic kernels through markers under two linear kernel methods, linear (genomic best linear unbiased predictors, GBLUP) and Gaussian (Gaussian kernel, GK). The other model has the same genetic component as the first model (u) plus an extra component, f, that captures random effects between environments that were not captured by the random effects u. We used five CIMMYT data sets (one maize and four wheat) that were previously used in different studies. Results show that models with G × E always have superior prediction ability than single-environment models, and the higher prediction ability of multi-environment models with u and f over the multi-environment model with only u occurred 85% of the time with GBLUP and 45% of the time with GK across the five data sets. The latter result indicated that including the random effect f is still beneficial for increasing prediction ability after adjusting by the random effect u. PMID:27793970

  1. Bayesian Genomic Prediction with Genotype × Environment Interaction Kernel Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaime Cuevas

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The phenomenon of genotype × environment (G × E interaction in plant breeding decreases selection accuracy, thereby negatively affecting genetic gains. Several genomic prediction models incorporating G × E have been recently developed and used in genomic selection of plant breeding programs. Genomic prediction models for assessing multi-environment G × E interaction are extensions of a single-environment model, and have advantages and limitations. In this study, we propose two multi-environment Bayesian genomic models: the first model considers genetic effects ( u that can be assessed by the Kronecker product of variance–covariance matrices of genetic correlations between environments and genomic kernels through markers under two linear kernel methods, linear (genomic best linear unbiased predictors, GBLUP and Gaussian (Gaussian kernel, GK. The other model has the same genetic component as the first model ( u plus an extra component, f, that captures random effects between environments that were not captured by the random effects u . We used five CIMMYT data sets (one maize and four wheat that were previously used in different studies. Results show that models with G × E always have superior prediction ability than single-environment models, and the higher prediction ability of multi-environment models with u   and   f over the multi-environment model with only u occurred 85% of the time with GBLUP and 45% of the time with GK across the five data sets. The latter result indicated that including the random effect f is still beneficial for increasing prediction ability after adjusting by the random effect u .

  2. Bayesian Genomic Prediction with Genotype × Environment Interaction Kernel Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cuevas, Jaime; Crossa, José; Montesinos-López, Osval A; Burgueño, Juan; Pérez-Rodríguez, Paulino; de Los Campos, Gustavo

    2017-01-05

    The phenomenon of genotype × environment (G × E) interaction in plant breeding decreases selection accuracy, thereby negatively affecting genetic gains. Several genomic prediction models incorporating G × E have been recently developed and used in genomic selection of plant breeding programs. Genomic prediction models for assessing multi-environment G × E interaction are extensions of a single-environment model, and have advantages and limitations. In this study, we propose two multi-environment Bayesian genomic models: the first model considers genetic effects [Formula: see text] that can be assessed by the Kronecker product of variance-covariance matrices of genetic correlations between environments and genomic kernels through markers under two linear kernel methods, linear (genomic best linear unbiased predictors, GBLUP) and Gaussian (Gaussian kernel, GK). The other model has the same genetic component as the first model [Formula: see text] plus an extra component, F: , that captures random effects between environments that were not captured by the random effects [Formula: see text] We used five CIMMYT data sets (one maize and four wheat) that were previously used in different studies. Results show that models with G × E always have superior prediction ability than single-environment models, and the higher prediction ability of multi-environment models with [Formula: see text] over the multi-environment model with only u occurred 85% of the time with GBLUP and 45% of the time with GK across the five data sets. The latter result indicated that including the random effect f is still beneficial for increasing prediction ability after adjusting by the random effect [Formula: see text]. Copyright © 2017 Cuevas et al.

  3. Prediction of resource volumes at untested locations using simple local prediction models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Attanasi, E.D.; Coburn, T.C.; Freeman, P.A.

    2006-01-01

    This paper shows how local spatial nonparametric prediction models can be applied to estimate volumes of recoverable gas resources at individual undrilled sites, at multiple sites on a regional scale, and to compute confidence bounds for regional volumes based on the distribution of those estimates. An approach that combines cross-validation, the jackknife, and bootstrap procedures is used to accomplish this task. Simulation experiments show that cross-validation can be applied beneficially to select an appropriate prediction model. The cross-validation procedure worked well for a wide range of different states of nature and levels of information. Jackknife procedures are used to compute individual prediction estimation errors at undrilled locations. The jackknife replicates also are used with a bootstrap resampling procedure to compute confidence bounds for the total volume. The method was applied to data (partitioned into a training set and target set) from the Devonian Antrim Shale continuous-type gas play in the Michigan Basin in Otsego County, Michigan. The analysis showed that the model estimate of total recoverable volumes at prediction sites is within 4 percent of the total observed volume. The model predictions also provide frequency distributions of the cell volumes at the production unit scale. Such distributions are the basis for subsequent economic analyses. ?? Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2007.

  4. Three-model ensemble wind prediction in southern Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torcasio, Rosa Claudia; Federico, Stefano; Calidonna, Claudia Roberta; Avolio, Elenio; Drofa, Oxana; Landi, Tony Christian; Malguzzi, Piero; Buzzi, Andrea; Bonasoni, Paolo

    2016-03-01

    Quality of wind prediction is of great importance since a good wind forecast allows the prediction of available wind power, improving the penetration of renewable energies into the energy market. Here, a 1-year (1 December 2012 to 30 November 2013) three-model ensemble (TME) experiment for wind prediction is considered. The models employed, run operationally at National Research Council - Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (CNR-ISAC), are RAMS (Regional Atmospheric Modelling System), BOLAM (BOlogna Limited Area Model), and MOLOCH (MOdello LOCale in H coordinates). The area considered for the study is southern Italy and the measurements used for the forecast verification are those of the GTS (Global Telecommunication System). Comparison with observations is made every 3 h up to 48 h of forecast lead time. Results show that the three-model ensemble outperforms the forecast of each individual model. The RMSE improvement compared to the best model is between 22 and 30 %, depending on the season. It is also shown that the three-model ensemble outperforms the IFS (Integrated Forecasting System) of the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast) for the surface wind forecasts. Notably, the three-model ensemble forecast performs better than each unbiased model, showing the added value of the ensemble technique. Finally, the sensitivity of the three-model ensemble RMSE to the length of the training period is analysed.

  5. A novel Bayesian hierarchical model for road safety hotspot prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fawcett, Lee; Thorpe, Neil; Matthews, Joseph; Kremer, Karsten

    2017-02-01

    In this paper, we propose a Bayesian hierarchical model for predicting accident counts in future years at sites within a pool of potential road safety hotspots. The aim is to inform road safety practitioners of the location of likely future hotspots to enable a proactive, rather than reactive, approach to road safety scheme implementation. A feature of our model is the ability to rank sites according to their potential to exceed, in some future time period, a threshold accident count which may be used as a criterion for scheme implementation. Our model specification enables the classical empirical Bayes formulation - commonly used in before-and-after studies, wherein accident counts from a single before period are used to estimate counterfactual counts in the after period - to be extended to incorporate counts from multiple time periods. This allows site-specific variations in historical accident counts (e.g. locally-observed trends) to offset estimates of safety generated by a global accident prediction model (APM), which itself is used to help account for the effects of global trend and regression-to-mean (RTM). The Bayesian posterior predictive distribution is exploited to formulate predictions and to properly quantify our uncertainty in these predictions. The main contributions of our model include (i) the ability to allow accident counts from multiple time-points to inform predictions, with counts in more recent years lending more weight to predictions than counts from time-points further in the past; (ii) where appropriate, the ability to offset global estimates of trend by variations in accident counts observed locally, at a site-specific level; and (iii) the ability to account for unknown/unobserved site-specific factors which may affect accident counts. We illustrate our model with an application to accident counts at 734 potential hotspots in the German city of Halle; we also propose some simple diagnostics to validate the predictive capability of our

  6. Stochastic models for predicting pitting corrosion damage of HLRW containers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Henshall, G.A.

    1991-10-01

    Stochastic models for predicting aqueous pitting corrosion damage of high-level radioactive-waste containers are described. These models could be used to predict the time required for the first pit to penetrate a container and the increase in the number of breaches at later times, both of which would be useful in the repository system performance analysis. Monte Carlo implementations of the stochastic models are described, and predictions of induction time, survival probability and pit depth distributions are presented. These results suggest that the pit nucleation probability decreases with exposure time and that pit growth may be a stochastic process. The advantages and disadvantages of the stochastic approach, methods for modeling the effects of environment, and plans for future work are discussed

  7. Verification and improvement of a predictive model for radionuclide migration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miller, C.W.; Benson, L.V.; Carnahan, C.L.

    1982-01-01

    Prediction of the rates of migration of contaminant chemical species in groundwater flowing through toxic waste repositories is essential to the assessment of a repository's capability of meeting standards for release rates. A large number of chemical transport models, of varying degrees of complexity, have been devised for the purpose of providing this predictive capability. In general, the transport of dissolved chemical species through a water-saturated porous medium is influenced by convection, diffusion/dispersion, sorption, formation of complexes in the aqueous phase, and chemical precipitation. The reliability of predictions made with the models which omit certain of these processes is difficult to assess. A numerical model, CHEMTRN, has been developed to determine which chemical processes govern radionuclide migration. CHEMTRN builds on a model called MCCTM developed previously by Lichtner and Benson

  8. Curie temperature rising by fluorination for Sm2Fe17

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matahiro Komuro

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Fluorine atoms can be introduced to Sm2Fe17 using XeF2 below 423 K. The resulting fluorinated Sm2Fe17 powders have ferromagnetic phases containing Sm2Fe17FY1(0Sm2Fe17FY2 (1Sm2Fe17, and α-Fe. The unit cell for Sm2Fe17 is elongated by the fluorination. The largest unit cell volume among the rhombohedral Sm2Fe17 compounds is 83.8 nm3, which is 5.8% larger than Sm2Fe17. The rhombohedral Sm2Fe17 with the largest unit cell volume is dissociated above 873 K, and fluorination increases Curie temperature from 403 K for Sm2Fe17 to 675 K. This increase can be explained by the magneto-volume effect.

  9. Numerical weather prediction (NWP) and hybrid ARMA/ANN model to predict global radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Voyant, Cyril; Muselli, Marc; Paoli, Christophe; Nivet, Marie-Laure

    2012-01-01

    We propose in this paper an original technique to predict global radiation using a hybrid ARMA/ANN model and data issued from a numerical weather prediction model (NWP). We particularly look at the multi-layer perceptron (MLP). After optimizing our architecture with NWP and endogenous data previously made stationary and using an innovative pre-input layer selection method, we combined it to an ARMA model from a rule based on the analysis of hourly data series. This model has been used to forecast the hourly global radiation for five places in Mediterranean area. Our technique outperforms classical models for all the places. The nRMSE for our hybrid model MLP/ARMA is 14.9% compared to 26.2% for the naïve persistence predictor. Note that in the standalone ANN case the nRMSE is 18.4%. Finally, in order to discuss the reliability of the forecaster outputs, a complementary study concerning the confidence interval of each prediction is proposed. -- Highlights: ► Time series forecasting with hybrid method based on the use of ALADIN numerical weather model, ANN and ARMA. ► Innovative pre-input layer selection method. ► Combination of optimized MLP and ARMA model obtained from a rule based on the analysis of hourly data series. ► Stationarity process (method and control) for the global radiation time series.

  10. Sm-153 EDTMP (ethylene diamine tetramethylene phosphonic acid) radiotherapeutic radiopharmaceutical

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rehir Dahalan; Wan Anuar Wan Awang

    1999-01-01

    This work has utilized the technology used in the design of the diagnostic radiopharmaceuticals, which enabled optimum delivery of, the gamma emitting radionuclide to the target organs, enhancing the image of organ of interest. Optimal delivery of radiotherapeutic agents, minimizes the dose to the non target organs, whilst delivering destructive beta emitting radionuclide to target cancerous tissues with the hope of slowing down or completely ablating its growth. This work had been in establishing the parameters in the optimal production of Sm-153 using the MINT Research Reactor (MINTRR). This radionuclide, was then labeled to the ethylene diamine tetramethylene phosphoric acid (EDTMP) ligand, a bone-seeking complex. The results of this work have established the most suitable target form, the optimum labeling conditions and the necessary parameters to enhance the biodistribution of the Sm-153 EDTMP complex in the bone of the animal model, thus similarly in human. (author)

  11. Key Questions in Building Defect Prediction Models in Practice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramler, Rudolf; Wolfmaier, Klaus; Stauder, Erwin; Kossak, Felix; Natschläger, Thomas

    The information about which modules of a future version of a software system are defect-prone is a valuable planning aid for quality managers and testers. Defect prediction promises to indicate these defect-prone modules. However, constructing effective defect prediction models in an industrial setting involves a number of key questions. In this paper we discuss ten key questions identified in context of establishing defect prediction in a large software development project. Seven consecutive versions of the software system have been used to construct and validate defect prediction models for system test planning. Furthermore, the paper presents initial empirical results from the studied project and, by this means, contributes answers to the identified questions.

  12. Hierarchical Neural Regression Models for Customer Churn Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Golshan Mohammadi

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available As customers are the main assets of each industry, customer churn prediction is becoming a major task for companies to remain in competition with competitors. In the literature, the better applicability and efficiency of hierarchical data mining techniques has been reported. This paper considers three hierarchical models by combining four different data mining techniques for churn prediction, which are backpropagation artificial neural networks (ANN, self-organizing maps (SOM, alpha-cut fuzzy c-means (α-FCM, and Cox proportional hazards regression model. The hierarchical models are ANN + ANN + Cox, SOM + ANN + Cox, and α-FCM + ANN + Cox. In particular, the first component of the models aims to cluster data in two churner and nonchurner groups and also filter out unrepresentative data or outliers. Then, the clustered data as the outputs are used to assign customers to churner and nonchurner groups by the second technique. Finally, the correctly classified data are used to create Cox proportional hazards model. To evaluate the performance of the hierarchical models, an Iranian mobile dataset is considered. The experimental results show that the hierarchical models outperform the single Cox regression baseline model in terms of prediction accuracy, Types I and II errors, RMSE, and MAD metrics. In addition, the α-FCM + ANN + Cox model significantly performs better than the two other hierarchical models.

  13. 153Sm-HM for arthritic knee pain. Estimated dosimetry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hardy-Pérez, Alberto E.; Torres-García, Eugenio; Mitsoura, Eleni; Jiménez-Mancilla, Nallely P.; Arteaga-de-Murphy, Consuelo; Pedraza-López, Martha

    2012-01-01

    Osteoarthritis is the most common type of arthropathy and after cardiovascular diseases is the most disabling disease in developing countries. The dosimetry for the clinical application of 153-samarium-hydroxymacroaggregates ( 153 Sm-HM) for radiation synovectomy (RSV) and palliative treatment for arthritic pain, as far as we know, has not been reported. The aim of this research was to estimate the radiation dose necessary for synovial ablation and pain palliation with minimum risk to the patient. 153 Sm-HM (370 MBq) was administered intra-articularly in a patient with severe knee pain and hindered motility. Regions of interest drawn on sequential, conjugated, anterior and posterior scintigraphy images were used to obtain the respective activity. The data was entered into a knee joint histological-geometric model designed with micrometric dimensions to represent the synovial cell layers. The Monte Carlo code was used to calculate the absorbed dose in each of the 12 model-cells representing the distance from the synovial liquid to the cartilage or bone. The absorbed dose in the synovial cavity was 114 Gy which is sufficient energy for RSV. The treated patient referred little pain and higher motility with no adverse reactions. 153 Sm-HM is a potentially valid radiopharmaceutical for RSV, which effectively palliates knee pain.

  14. Discrete fracture modelling for the Stripa tracer validation experiment predictions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dershowitz, W.; Wallmann, P.

    1992-02-01

    Groundwater flow and transport through three-dimensional networks of discrete fractures was modeled to predict the recovery of tracer from tracer injection experiments conducted during phase 3 of the Stripa site characterization and validation protect. Predictions were made on the basis of an updated version of the site scale discrete fracture conceptual model used for flow predictions and preliminary transport modelling. In this model, individual fractures were treated as stochastic features described by probability distributions of geometric and hydrologic properties. Fractures were divided into three populations: Fractures in fracture zones near the drift, non-fracture zone fractures within 31 m of the drift, and fractures in fracture zones over 31 meters from the drift axis. Fractures outside fracture zones are not modelled beyond 31 meters from the drift axis. Transport predictions were produced using the FracMan discrete fracture modelling package for each of five tracer experiments. Output was produced in the seven formats specified by the Stripa task force on fracture flow modelling. (au)

  15. Enhancing pavement performance prediction models for the Illinois Tollway System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laxmikanth Premkumar

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Accurate pavement performance prediction represents an important role in prioritizing future maintenance and rehabilitation needs, and predicting future pavement condition in a pavement management system. The Illinois State Toll Highway Authority (Tollway with over 2000 lane miles of pavement utilizes the condition rating survey (CRS methodology to rate pavement performance. Pavement performance models developed in the past for the Illinois Department of Transportation (IDOT are used by the Tollway to predict the future condition of its network. The model projects future CRS ratings based on pavement type, thickness, traffic, pavement age and current CRS rating. However, with time and inclusion of newer pavement types there was a need to calibrate the existing pavement performance models, as well as, develop models for newer pavement types.This study presents the results of calibrating the existing models, and developing new models for the various pavement types in the Illinois Tollway network. The predicted future condition of the pavements is used in estimating its remaining service life to failure, which is of immediate use in recommending future maintenance and rehabilitation requirements for the network. Keywords: Pavement performance models, Remaining life, Pavement management

  16. Error analysis in predictive modelling demonstrated on mould data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baranyi, József; Csernus, Olívia; Beczner, Judit

    2014-01-17

    The purpose of this paper was to develop a predictive model for the effect of temperature and water activity on the growth rate of Aspergillus niger and to determine the sources of the error when the model is used for prediction. Parallel mould growth curves, derived from the same spore batch, were generated and fitted to determine their growth rate. The variances of replicate ln(growth-rate) estimates were used to quantify the experimental variability, inherent to the method of determining the growth rate. The environmental variability was quantified by the variance of the respective means of replicates. The idea is analogous to the "within group" and "between groups" variability concepts of ANOVA procedures. A (secondary) model, with temperature and water activity as explanatory variables, was fitted to the natural logarithm of the growth rates determined by the primary model. The model error and the experimental and environmental errors were ranked according to their contribution to the total error of prediction. Our method can readily be applied to analysing the error structure of predictive models of bacterial growth models, too. © 2013.

  17. Predicting nucleic acid binding interfaces from structural models of proteins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dror, Iris; Shazman, Shula; Mukherjee, Srayanta; Zhang, Yang; Glaser, Fabian; Mandel-Gutfreund, Yael

    2012-02-01

    The function of DNA- and RNA-binding proteins can be inferred from the characterization and accurate prediction of their binding interfaces. However, the main pitfall of various structure-based methods for predicting nucleic acid binding function is that they are all limited to a relatively small number of proteins for which high-resolution three-dimensional structures are available. In this study, we developed a pipeline for extracting functional electrostatic patches from surfaces of protein structural models, obtained using the I-TASSER protein structure predictor. The largest positive patches are extracted from the protein surface using the patchfinder algorithm. We show that functional electrostatic patches extracted from an ensemble of structural models highly overlap the patches extracted from high-resolution structures. Furthermore, by testing our pipeline on a set of 55 known nucleic acid binding proteins for which I-TASSER produces high-quality models, we show that the method accurately identifies the nucleic acids binding interface on structural models of proteins. Employing a combined patch approach we show that patches extracted from an ensemble of models better predicts the real nucleic acid binding interfaces compared with patches extracted from independent models. Overall, these results suggest that combining information from a collection of low-resolution structural models could be a valuable approach for functional annotation. We suggest that our method will be further applicable for predicting other functional surfaces of proteins with unknown structure. Copyright © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  18. Robust Model Predictive Control of a Wind Turbine

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mirzaei, Mahmood; Poulsen, Niels Kjølstad; Niemann, Hans Henrik

    2012-01-01

    In this work the problem of robust model predictive control (robust MPC) of a wind turbine in the full load region is considered. A minimax robust MPC approach is used to tackle the problem. Nonlinear dynamics of the wind turbine are derived by combining blade element momentum (BEM) theory...... of the uncertain system is employed and a norm-bounded uncertainty model is used to formulate a minimax model predictive control. The resulting optimization problem is simplified by semidefinite relaxation and the controller obtained is applied on a full complexity, high fidelity wind turbine model. Finally...... and first principle modeling of the turbine flexible structure. Thereafter the nonlinear model is linearized using Taylor series expansion around system operating points. Operating points are determined by effective wind speed and an extended Kalman filter (EKF) is employed to estimate this. In addition...

  19. Enhancing pavement performance prediction models for the Illinois Tollway System

    OpenAIRE

    Laxmikanth Premkumar; William R. Vavrik

    2016-01-01

    Accurate pavement performance prediction represents an important role in prioritizing future maintenance and rehabilitation needs, and predicting future pavement condition in a pavement management system. The Illinois State Toll Highway Authority (Tollway) with over 2000 lane miles of pavement utilizes the condition rating survey (CRS) methodology to rate pavement performance. Pavement performance models developed in the past for the Illinois Department of Transportation (IDOT) are used by th...

  20. MULTIVARIATE MODEL FOR CORPORATE BANKRUPTCY PREDICTION IN ROMANIA

    OpenAIRE

    Daniel BRÎNDESCU – OLARIU

    2016-01-01

    The current paper proposes a methodology for bankruptcy prediction applicable for Romanian companies. Low bankruptcy frequencies registered in the past have limited the importance of bankruptcy prediction in Romania. The changes in the economic environment brought by the economic crisis, as well as by the entrance in the European Union, make the availability of performing bankruptcy assessment tools more important than ever before. The proposed methodology is centred on a multivariate model, ...

  1. Cloud Based Metalearning System for Predictive Modeling of Biomedical Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Milan Vukićević

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Rapid growth and storage of biomedical data enabled many opportunities for predictive modeling and improvement of healthcare processes. On the other side analysis of such large amounts of data is a difficult and computationally intensive task for most existing data mining algorithms. This problem is addressed by proposing a cloud based system that integrates metalearning framework for ranking and selection of best predictive algorithms for data at hand and open source big data technologies for analysis of biomedical data.

  2. New tips for structure prediction by comparative modeling

    OpenAIRE

    Rayan, Anwar

    2009-01-01

    Comparative modelling is utilized to predict the 3-dimensional conformation of a given protein (target) based on its sequence alignment to experimentally determined protein structure (template). The use of such technique is already rewarding and increasingly widespread in biological research and drug development. The accuracy of the predictions as commonly accepted depends on the score of sequence identity of the target protein to the template. To assess the relationship between sequence iden...

  3. Pulsatile fluidic pump demonstration and predictive model application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morgan, J.G.; Holland, W.D.

    1986-04-01

    Pulsatile fluidic pumps were developed as a remotely controlled method of transferring or mixing feed solutions. A test in the Integrated Equipment Test facility demonstrated the performance of a critically safe geometry pump suitable for use in a 0.1-ton/d heavy metal (HM) fuel reprocessing plant. A predictive model was developed to calculate output flows under a wide range of external system conditions. Predictive and experimental flow rates are compared for both submerged and unsubmerged fluidic pump cases

  4. Predictive power of theoretical modelling of the nuclear mean field: examples of improving predictive capacities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dedes, I.; Dudek, J.

    2018-03-01

    We examine the effects of the parametric correlations on the predictive capacities of the theoretical modelling keeping in mind the nuclear structure applications. The main purpose of this work is to illustrate the method of establishing the presence and determining the form of parametric correlations within a model as well as an algorithm of elimination by substitution (see text) of parametric correlations. We examine the effects of the elimination of the parametric correlations on the stabilisation of the model predictions further and further away from the fitting zone. It follows that the choice of the physics case and the selection of the associated model are of secondary importance in this case. Under these circumstances we give priority to the relative simplicity of the underlying mathematical algorithm, provided the model is realistic. Following such criteria, we focus specifically on an important but relatively simple case of doubly magic spherical nuclei. To profit from the algorithmic simplicity we chose working with the phenomenological spherically symmetric Woods–Saxon mean-field. We employ two variants of the underlying Hamiltonian, the traditional one involving both the central and the spin orbit potential in the Woods–Saxon form and the more advanced version with the self-consistent density-dependent spin–orbit interaction. We compare the effects of eliminating of various types of correlations and discuss the improvement of the quality of predictions (‘predictive power’) under realistic parameter adjustment conditions.

  5. Modelling of physical properties - databases, uncertainties and predictive power

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gani, Rafiqul

    in the estimated/predicted property values, how to assess the quality and reliability of the estimated/predicted property values? The paper will review a class of models for prediction of physical and thermodynamic properties of organic chemicals and their mixtures based on the combined group contribution – atom......Physical and thermodynamic property in the form of raw data or estimated values for pure compounds and mixtures are important pre-requisites for performing tasks such as, process design, simulation and optimization; computer aided molecular/mixture (product) design; and, product-process analysis...

  6. Predictive Modeling of a Paradigm Mechanical Cooling Tower Model: II. Optimal Best-Estimate Results with Reduced Predicted Uncertainties

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruixian Fang

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available This work uses the adjoint sensitivity model of the counter-flow cooling tower derived in the accompanying PART I to obtain the expressions and relative numerical rankings of the sensitivities, to all model parameters, of the following model responses: (i outlet air temperature; (ii outlet water temperature; (iii outlet water mass flow rate; and (iv air outlet relative humidity. These sensitivities are subsequently used within the “predictive modeling for coupled multi-physics systems” (PM_CMPS methodology to obtain explicit formulas for the predicted optimal nominal values for the model responses and parameters, along with reduced predicted standard deviations for the predicted model parameters and responses. These explicit formulas embody the assimilation of experimental data and the “calibration” of the model’s parameters. The results presented in this work demonstrate that the PM_CMPS methodology reduces the predicted standard deviations to values that are smaller than either the computed or the experimentally measured ones, even for responses (e.g., the outlet water flow rate for which no measurements are available. These improvements stem from the global characteristics of the PM_CMPS methodology, which combines all of the available information simultaneously in phase-space, as opposed to combining it sequentially, as in current data assimilation procedures.

  7. The global electroweak Standard Model fit after the Higgs discovery

    CERN Document Server

    Baak, Max

    2013-01-01

    We present an update of the global Standard Model (SM) fit to electroweak precision data under the assumption that the new particle discovered at the LHC is the SM Higgs boson. In this scenario all parameters entering the calculations of electroweak precision observalbes are known, allowing, for the first time, to over-constrain the SM at the electroweak scale and assert its validity. Within the SM the W boson mass and the effective weak mixing angle can be accurately predicted from the global fit. The results are compatible with, and exceed in precision, the direct measurements. An updated determination of the S, T and U parameters, which parametrize the oblique vacuum corrections, is given. The obtained values show good consistency with the SM expectation and no direct signs of new physics are seen. We conclude with an outlook to the global electroweak fit for a future e+e- collider.

  8. Modeling the prediction of business intelligence system effectiveness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weng, Sung-Shun; Yang, Ming-Hsien; Koo, Tian-Lih; Hsiao, Pei-I

    2016-01-01

    Although business intelligence (BI) technologies are continually evolving, the capability to apply BI technologies has become an indispensable resource for enterprises running in today's complex, uncertain and dynamic business environment. This study performed pioneering work by constructing models and rules for the prediction of business intelligence system effectiveness (BISE) in relation to the implementation of BI solutions. For enterprises, effectively managing critical attributes that determine BISE to develop prediction models with a set of rules for self-evaluation of the effectiveness of BI solutions is necessary to improve BI implementation and ensure its success. The main study findings identified the critical prediction indicators of BISE that are important to forecasting BI performance and highlighted five classification and prediction rules of BISE derived from decision tree structures, as well as a refined regression prediction model with four critical prediction indicators constructed by logistic regression analysis that can enable enterprises to improve BISE while effectively managing BI solution implementation and catering to academics to whom theory is important.

  9. R2SM: a package for the analytic computation of the R2 Rational terms in the Standard Model of the Electroweak interactions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garzelli, M.V.

    2011-01-01

    The analytical package written in FORM presented in this paper allows the computation of the complete set of Feynman Rules producing the Rational terms of kind R 2 contributing to the virtual part of NLO corrections in the Standard Model of the Electroweak interactions. Building block topologies filled by means of generic scalars, vectors and fermions, allowing to build these Feynman Rules in terms of specific elementary particles, are explicitly given in the R ξ gauge class, together with the automatic dressing procedure to obtain the Feynman Rules from them. The results in more specific gauges, like the 't Hooft Feynman one, follow as particular cases, in both the HV and the FDH dimensional regularization schemes. As a check on our formulas, the gauge independence of the total Rational contribution (R 1 +R 2 ) to renormalized S-matrix elements is verified by considering the specific example of the H →γγ decay process at 1-loop. This package can be of interest for people aiming at a better understanding of the nature of the Rational terms. It is organized in a modular way, allowing a further use of some its files even in different contexts. Furthermore, it can be considered as a first seed in the effort towards a complete automation of the process of the analytical calculation of the R 2 effective vertices, given the Lagrangian of a generic gauge theory of particle interactions. (orig.)

  10. In silico modeling to predict drug-induced phospholipidosis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choi, Sydney S.; Kim, Jae S.; Valerio, Luis G.; Sadrieh, Nakissa

    2013-01-01

    Drug-induced phospholipidosis (DIPL) is a preclinical finding during pharmaceutical drug development that has implications on the course of drug development and regulatory safety review. A principal characteristic of drugs inducing DIPL is known to be a cationic amphiphilic structure. This provides evidence for a structure-based explanation and opportunity to analyze properties and structures of drugs with the histopathologic findings for DIPL. In previous work from the FDA, in silico quantitative structure–activity relationship (QSAR) modeling using machine learning approaches has shown promise with a large dataset of drugs but included unconfirmed data as well. In this study, we report the construction and validation of a battery of complementary in silico QSAR models using the FDA's updated database on phospholipidosis, new algorithms and predictive technologies, and in particular, we address high performance with a high-confidence dataset. The results of our modeling for DIPL include rigorous external validation tests showing 80–81% concordance. Furthermore, the predictive performance characteristics include models with high sensitivity and specificity, in most cases above ≥ 80% leading to desired high negative and positive predictivity. These models are intended to be utilized for regulatory toxicology applied science needs in screening new drugs for DIPL. - Highlights: • New in silico models for predicting drug-induced phospholipidosis (DIPL) are described. • The training set data in the models is derived from the FDA's phospholipidosis database. • We find excellent predictivity values of the models based on external validation. • The models can support drug screening and regulatory decision-making on DIPL

  11. Prediction models and control algorithms for predictive applications of setback temperature in cooling systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moon, Jin Woo; Yoon, Younju; Jeon, Young-Hoon; Kim, Sooyoung

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • Initial ANN model was developed for predicting the time to the setback temperature. • Initial model was optimized for producing accurate output. • Optimized model proved its prediction accuracy. • ANN-based algorithms were developed and tested their performance. • ANN-based algorithms presented superior thermal comfort or energy efficiency. - Abstract: In this study, a temperature control algorithm was developed to apply a setback temperature predictively for the cooling system of a residential building during occupied periods by residents. An artificial neural network (ANN) model was developed to determine the required time for increasing the current indoor temperature to the setback temperature. This study involved three phases: development of the initial ANN-based prediction model, optimization and testing of the initial model, and development and testing of three control algorithms. The development and performance testing of the model and algorithm were conducted using TRNSYS and MATLAB. Through the development and optimization process, the final ANN model employed indoor temperature and the temperature difference between the current and target setback temperature as two input neurons. The optimal number of hidden layers, number of neurons, learning rate, and moment were determined to be 4, 9, 0.6, and 0.9, respectively. The tangent–sigmoid and pure-linear transfer function was used in the hidden and output neurons, respectively. The ANN model used 100 training data sets with sliding-window method for data management. Levenberg-Marquart training method was employed for model training. The optimized model had a prediction accuracy of 0.9097 root mean square errors when compared with the simulated results. Employing the ANN model, ANN-based algorithms maintained indoor temperatures better within target ranges. Compared to the conventional algorithm, the ANN-based algorithms reduced the duration of time, in which the indoor temperature

  12. Structural, magnetotransport and thermal properties of Sm substituted La{sub 0.7−x}Sm{sub x}Ba{sub 0.3}MnO{sub 3} (0≤x≤0.2) manganites

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Modi, Anchit, E-mail: anchitmodi87@gmail.com [Department of Physics, Barkatullah University, Bhopal 462026 (India); Bhat, Masroor Ahmad; Pandey, Devendra K. [Department of Physics, Barkatullah University, Bhopal 462026 (India); Tarachand [UGC-DAE, Consortium for Scientific Research, University Campus, Khandwa Road, Indore 452001 (India); Bhattacharya, Shovit [Technical Physics Division, Bhabha Atomic Research Center, Mumbai 400085 (India); Gaur, N.K. [Department of Physics, Barkatullah University, Bhopal 462026 (India); Okram, G.S. [UGC-DAE, Consortium for Scientific Research, University Campus, Khandwa Road, Indore 452001 (India)

    2017-02-15

    In the present paper we studied the structural, magnetotransport and thermopower properties of a series of polycrystalline La{sub 0.7−x}Sm{sub x}Ba{sub 0.3}MnO{sub 3} (0≤x≤0.2) compounds which were synthesized by conventional solid state reaction techniques. The Rietveld refinement of the X-ray diffraction pattern predicts the formation of single-phase compositions and doping of La{sup 3+} by Sm{sup 3+} ion converted the chemical structure form rhombohedral (R-3C) to orthorhombic (Imma) The scanning electron microscopy show clean smooth and densified structure images be a sign of good crystalline nature of the samples. The temperature dependent electrical resistivity is measured by standard four-probe method between 5 and 300 K exhibits Metal–Insulator Transition MIT which shows the decreasing trend with increasing Sm doping content and metallic state (TT{sub p2}) are explained within the framework of variable range hopping (VRH) and small polaron hopping (SPH) models. The application of magnetic field suppresses the resistivity in entire temperature range and with increasing the Sm{sup 3+} content the samples showed very high magnetoresistance. The thermoelectric power (S) of the reported samples exhibit a crossover from positive to negative value and it increases in doped samples. The analysis of thermoelectric power data confirms the applicability of the small polaron hopping model in high temperature region and in low temperature fitted to an equation containing diffusion, magnon drag, phonon drag and electron-spin fluctuation term. An appropriate justification for the observed behavior is specified. - Highlights: • La{sub 0

  13. Improving Saliency Models by Predicting Human Fixation Patches

    KAUST Repository

    Dubey, Rachit

    2015-04-16

    There is growing interest in studying the Human Visual System (HVS) to supplement and improve the performance of computer vision tasks. A major challenge for current visual saliency models is predicting saliency in cluttered scenes (i.e. high false positive rate). In this paper, we propose a fixation patch detector that predicts image patches that contain human fixations with high probability. Our proposed model detects sparse fixation patches with an accuracy of 84 % and eliminates non-fixation patches with an accuracy of 84 % demonstrating that low-level image features can indeed be used to short-list and identify human fixation patches. We then show how these detected fixation patches can be used as saliency priors for popular saliency models, thus, reducing false positives while maintaining true positives. Extensive experimental results show that our proposed approach allows state-of-the-art saliency methods to achieve better prediction performance on benchmark datasets.

  14. Improving Saliency Models by Predicting Human Fixation Patches

    KAUST Repository

    Dubey, Rachit; Dave, Akshat; Ghanem, Bernard

    2015-01-01

    There is growing interest in studying the Human Visual System (HVS) to supplement and improve the performance of computer vision tasks. A major challenge for current visual saliency models is predicting saliency in cluttered scenes (i.e. high false positive rate). In this paper, we propose a fixation patch detector that predicts image patches that contain human fixations with high probability. Our proposed model detects sparse fixation patches with an accuracy of 84 % and eliminates non-fixation patches with an accuracy of 84 % demonstrating that low-level image features can indeed be used to short-list and identify human fixation patches. We then show how these detected fixation patches can be used as saliency priors for popular saliency models, thus, reducing false positives while maintaining true positives. Extensive experimental results show that our proposed approach allows state-of-the-art saliency methods to achieve better prediction performance on benchmark datasets.

  15. Mixing-model Sensitivity to Initial Conditions in Hydrodynamic Predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bigelow, Josiah; Silva, Humberto; Truman, C. Randall; Vorobieff, Peter

    2017-11-01

    Amagat and Dalton mixing-models were studied to compare their thermodynamic prediction of shock states. Numerical simulations with the Sandia National Laboratories shock hydrodynamic code CTH modeled University of New Mexico (UNM) shock tube laboratory experiments shocking a 1:1 molar mixture of helium (He) and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) . Five input parameters were varied for sensitivity analysis: driver section pressure, driver section density, test section pressure, test section density, and mixture ratio (mole fraction). We show via incremental Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) analysis that significant differences exist between Amagat and Dalton mixing-model predictions. The differences observed in predicted shock speeds, temperatures, and pressures grow more pronounced with higher shock speeds. Supported by NNSA Grant DE-0002913.

  16. Selection of References in Wind Turbine Model Predictive Control Design

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Odgaard, Peter Fogh; Hovgaard, Tobias

    2015-01-01

    a model predictive controller for a wind turbine. One of the important aspects for a tracking control problem is how to setup the optimal reference tracking problem, as it might be relevant to track, e.g., the three concurrent references: optimal pitch angle, optimal rotational speed, and optimal power......Lowering the cost of energy is one of the major focus areas in the wind turbine industry. Recent research has indicated that wind turbine controllers based on model predictive control methods can be useful in obtaining this objective. A number of design considerations have to be made when designing....... The importance if the individual references differ depending in particular on the wind speed. In this paper we investigate the performance of a reference tracking model predictive controller with two different setups of the used optimal reference signals. The controllers are evaluated using an industrial high...

  17. Initialization and Predictability of a Coupled ENSO Forecast Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Dake; Zebiak, Stephen E.; Cane, Mark A.; Busalacchi, Antonio J.

    1997-01-01

    The skill of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model in predicting ENSO has recently been improved using a new initialization procedure in which initial conditions are obtained from the coupled model, nudged toward observations of wind stress. The previous procedure involved direct insertion of wind stress observations, ignoring model feedback from ocean to atmosphere. The success of the new scheme is attributed to its explicit consideration of ocean-atmosphere coupling and the associated reduction of "initialization shock" and random noise. The so-called spring predictability barrier is eliminated, suggesting that such a barrier is not intrinsic to the real climate system. Initial attempts to generalize the nudging procedure to include SST were not successful; possible explanations are offered. In all experiments forecast skill is found to be much higher for the 1980s than for the 1970s and 1990s, suggesting decadal variations in predictability.

  18. Predicting climate-induced range shifts: model differences and model reliability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joshua J. Lawler; Denis White; Ronald P. Neilson; Andrew R. Blaustein

    2006-01-01

    Predicted changes in the global climate are likely to cause large shifts in the geographic ranges of many plant and animal species. To date, predictions of future range shifts have relied on a variety of modeling approaches with different levels of model accuracy. Using a common data set, we investigated the potential implications of alternative modeling approaches for...

  19. Multivariate statistical models for disruption prediction at ASDEX Upgrade

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aledda, R.; Cannas, B.; Fanni, A.; Sias, G.; Pautasso, G.

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, a disruption prediction system for ASDEX Upgrade has been proposed that does not require disruption terminated experiments to be implemented. The system consists of a data-based model, which is built using only few input signals coming from successfully terminated pulses. A fault detection and isolation approach has been used, where the prediction is based on the analysis of the residuals of an auto regressive exogenous input model. The prediction performance of the proposed system is encouraging when it is applied to the same set of campaigns used to implement the model. However, the false alarms significantly increase when we tested the system on discharges coming from experimental campaigns temporally far from those used to train the model. This is due to the well know aging effect inherent in the data-based models. The main advantage of the proposed method, with respect to other data-based approaches in literature, is that it does not need data on experiments terminated with a disruption, as it uses a normal operating conditions model. This is a big advantage in the prospective of a prediction system for ITER, where a limited number of disruptions can be allowed

  20. Predicting acid dew point with a semi-empirical model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xiang, Baixiang; Tang, Bin; Wu, Yuxin; Yang, Hairui; Zhang, Man; Lu, Junfu

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • The previous semi-empirical models are systematically studied. • An improved thermodynamic correlation is derived. • A semi-empirical prediction model is proposed. • The proposed semi-empirical model is validated. - Abstract: Decreasing the temperature of exhaust flue gas in boilers is one of the most effective ways to further improve the thermal efficiency, electrostatic precipitator efficiency and to decrease the water consumption of desulfurization tower, while, when this temperature is below the acid dew point, the fouling and corrosion will occur on the heating surfaces in the second pass of boilers. So, the knowledge on accurately predicting the acid dew point is essential. By investigating the previous models on acid dew point prediction, an improved thermodynamic correlation formula between the acid dew point and its influencing factors is derived first. And then, a semi-empirical prediction model is proposed, which is validated with the data both in field test and experiment, and comparing with the previous models.