WorldWideScience

Sample records for model simulated tropical

  1. Understanding the tropical warm temperature bias simulated by climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brient, Florent; Schneider, Tapio

    2017-04-01

    The state-of-the-art coupled general circulation models have difficulties in representing the observed spatial pattern of surface tempertaure. A majority of them suffers a warm bias in the tropical subsiding regions located over the eastern parts of oceans. These regions are usually covered by low-level clouds scattered from stratus along the coasts to more vertically developed shallow cumulus farther from them. Models usually fail to represent accurately this transition. Here we investigate physical drivers of this warm bias in CMIP5 models through a near-surface energy budget perspective. We show that overestimated solar insolation due to a lack of stratocumulus mostly explains the warm bias. This bias also arises partly from inter-model differences in surface fluxes that could be traced to differences in near-surface relative humidity and air-sea temperature gradient. We investigate the role of the atmosphere in driving surface biases by comparing historical and atmopsheric (AMIP) experiments. We show that some differences in boundary-layer characteristics, mostly those related to cloud fraction and relative humidity, are already present in AMIP experiments and may be the drivers of coupled biases. This gives insights in how models can be improved for better simulations of the tropical climate.

  2. Emergence of nutrient limitation in tropical dry forests: hypotheses from simulation models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medvigy, D.; Waring, B. G.; Xu, X.; Trierweiler, A.; Werden, L. K.; Wang, G.; Zhu, Q.; Powers, J. S.

    2017-12-01

    It is unclear to what extent tropical dry forest productivity may be limited by nutrients. Direct assessment of nutrient limitation through fertilization experiments has been rare, and paradigms pertaining to other ecosystems may not extend to tropical dry forests. For example, because dry tropical forests have a lower water supply than moist tropical forests, dry forests can have lower decomposition rates, higher soil carbon and nitrogen concentrations, and a more open nitrogen cycle than moist forests. We used a mechanistic, numerical model to generate hypotheses about nutrient limitation in tropical dry forests. The model dynamically couples ED2 (vegetation dynamics), MEND (biogeochemistry), and N-COM (plant-microbe competition for nutrients). Here, the MEND-component of the model has been extended to include nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) cycles. We focus on simulation of sixteen 25m x 25m plots in Costa Rica where a fertilization experiment has been underway since 2015. Baseline simulations are characterized by both nitrogen and phosphorus limitation of vegetation. Fertilization with N and P increased vegetation biomass, with N fertilization having a somewhat stronger effect. Nutrient limitation was also sensitive to climate and was more pronounced during drought periods. Overflow respiration was identified as a key process that mitigated nutrient limitation. These results suggest that, despite often having richer soils than tropical moist forests, tropical dry forests can also become nutrient-limited. If the climate becomes drier in the next century, as is expected for Central America, drier soils may decrease microbial activity and exacerbate nutrient limitation. The importance of overflow respiration underscores the need for appropriate treatment of microbial dynamics in ecosystem models. Ongoing and new nutrient fertilization experiments will present opportunities for testing whether, and how, nutrient limitation may indeed be emerging in tropical dry

  3. Numerical simulation of tropical-temperate troughs over Southern Africa using the CSU RAMS model

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Van den Heever, SC

    1997-08-01

    Full Text Available ) and the wet (1981) late summer case studies has been examined. Model simulations reveal that the tropical-temperate troughs form when an upper westerly wave coincides with an easterly, wave or depression in lower levels. These systems occur preferentially over...

  4. Sensitivity of tropical convection in cloud-resolving WRF simulations to model physics and forcing procedures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Endo, S.; Lin, W.; Jackson, R. C.; Collis, S. M.; Vogelmann, A. M.; Wang, D.; Oue, M.; Kollias, P.

    2017-12-01

    Tropical convection is one of the main drivers of the climate system and recognized as a major source of uncertainty in climate models. High-resolution modeling is performed with a focus on the deep convection cases during the active monsoon period of the TWP-ICE field campaign to explore ways to improve the fidelity of convection permitting tropical simulations. Cloud resolving model (CRM) simulations are performed with WRF modified to apply flexible configurations for LES/CRM simulations. We have enhanced the capability of the forcing module to test different implementations of large-scale vertical advective forcing, including a function for optional use of large-scale thermodynamic profiles and a function for the condensate advection. The baseline 3D CRM configurations are, following Fridlind et al. (2012), driven by observationally-constrained ARM forcing and tested with diagnosed surface fluxes and fixed sea-surface temperature and prescribed aerosol size distributions. After the spin-up period, the simulations follow the observed precipitation peaks associated with the passages of precipitation systems. Preliminary analysis shows that the simulation is generally not sensitive to the treatment of the large-scale vertical advection of heat and moisture, while more noticeable changes in the peak precipitation rate are produced when thermodynamic profiles above the boundary layer were nudged to the reference profiles from the forcing dataset. The presentation will explore comparisons with observationally-based metrics associated with convective characteristics and examine the model performance with a focus on model physics, doubly-periodic vs. nested configurations, and different forcing procedures/sources. A radar simulator will be used to understand possible uncertainties in radar-based retrievals of convection properties. Fridlind, A. M., et al. (2012), A comparison of TWP-ICE observational data with cloud-resolving model results, J. Geophys. Res., 117, D05204

  5. Assessing the Uncertainty of Tropical Cyclone Simulations in NCAR's Community Atmosphere Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kevin A Reed

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available The paper explores the impact of the initial-data, parameter and structural model uncertainty on the simulation of a tropical cyclone-like vortex in the National Center for Atmospheric Research's (NCAR Community Atmosphere Model (CAM. An analytic technique is used to initialize the model with an idealized weak vortex that develops into a tropical cyclone over ten simulation days. A total of 78 ensemble simulations are performed at horizontal grid spacings of 1.0°, 0.5° and 0.25° using two recently released versions of the model, CAM 4 and CAM 5. The ensemble members represent simulations with random small-amplitude perturbations of the initial conditions, small shifts in the longitudinal position of the initial vortex and runs with slightly altered model parameters. The main distinction between CAM 4 and CAM 5 lies within the physical parameterization suite, and the simulations with both CAM versions at the varying resolutions assess the structural model uncertainty. At all resolutions storms are produced with many tropical cyclone-like characteristics. The CAM 5 simulations exhibit more intense storms than CAM 4 by day 10 at the 0.5° and 0.25° grid spacings, while the CAM 4 storm at 1.0° is stronger. There are also distinct differences in the shapes and vertical profiles of the storms in the two variants of CAM. The ensemble members show no distinction between the initial-data and parameter uncertainty simulations. At day 10 they produce ensemble root-mean-square deviations from an unperturbed control simulation on the order of 1--5 m s-1 for the maximum low-level wind speed and 2--10 hPa for the minimum surface pressure. However, there are large differences between the two CAM versions at identical horizontal resolutions. It suggests that the structural uncertainty is more dominant than the initial-data and parameter uncertainties in this study. The uncertainty among the ensemble members is assessed and quantified.

  6. Improved simulation of precipitation in the tropics using a modified BMJ scheme in the WRF model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fonseca, R. M.; Zhang, T.; Yong, K.-T.

    2015-09-01

    The successful modelling of the observed precipitation, a very important variable for a wide range of climate applications, continues to be one of the major challenges that climate scientists face today. When the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used to dynamically downscale the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) over the Indo-Pacific region, with analysis (grid-point) nudging, it is found that the cumulus scheme used, Betts-Miller-Janjić (BMJ), produces excessive rainfall suggesting that it has to be modified for this region. Experimentation has shown that the cumulus precipitation is not very sensitive to changes in the cloud efficiency but varies greatly in response to modifications of the temperature and humidity reference profiles. A new version of the scheme, denoted "modified BMJ" scheme, where the humidity reference profile is more moist, was developed. In tropical belt simulations it was found to give a better estimate of the observed precipitation as given by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B42 data set than the default BMJ scheme for the whole tropics and both monsoon seasons. In fact, in some regions the model even outperforms CFSR. The advantage of modifying the BMJ scheme to produce better rainfall estimates lies in the final dynamical consistency of the rainfall with other dynamical and thermodynamical variables of the atmosphere.

  7. Development and application of a crossbreeding simulation model for goat production systems in tropical regions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsukahara, Y; Oishi, K; Hirooka, H

    2011-12-01

    A deterministic simulation model was developed to estimate biological production efficiency and to evaluate goat crossbreeding systems under tropical conditions. The model involves 5 production systems: pure indigenous, first filial generations (F1), backcross (BC), composite breeds of F1 (CMP(F1)), and BC (CMP(BC)). The model first simulates growth, reproduction, lactation, and energy intakes of a doe and a kid on a 1-d time step at the individual level and thereafter the outputs are integrated into the herd dynamics program. The ability of the model to simulate individual performances was tested under a base situation. The simulation results represented daily BW changes, ME requirements, and milk yield and the estimates were within the range of published data. Two conventional goat production scenarios (an intensive milk production scenario and an integrated goat and oil palm production scenario) in Malaysia were examined. The simulation results of the intensive milk production scenario showed the greater production efficiency of the CMP(BC) and CMP(F1) systems and decreased production efficiency of the F1 and BC systems. The results of the integrated goat and oil palm production scenario showed that the production efficiency and stocking rate were greater for the indigenous goats than for the crossbreeding systems.

  8. Conditional Stochastic Models in Reduced Space: Towards Efficient Simulation of Tropical Cyclone Precipitation Patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dodov, B.

    2017-12-01

    Stochastic simulation of realistic and statistically robust patterns of Tropical Cyclone (TC) induced precipitation is a challenging task. It is even more challenging in a catastrophe modeling context, where tens of thousands of typhoon seasons need to be simulated in order to provide a complete view of flood risk. Ultimately, one could run a coupled global climate model and regional Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model, but this approach is not feasible in the catastrophe modeling context and, most importantly, may not provide TC track patterns consistent with observations. Rather, we propose to leverage NWP output for the observed TC precipitation patterns (in terms of downscaled reanalysis 1979-2015) collected on a Lagrangian frame along the historical TC tracks and reduced to the leading spatial principal components of the data. The reduced data from all TCs is then grouped according to timing, storm evolution stage (developing, mature, dissipating, ETC transitioning) and central pressure and used to build a dictionary of stationary (within a group) and non-stationary (for transitions between groups) covariance models. Provided that the stochastic storm tracks with all the parameters describing the TC evolution are already simulated, a sequence of conditional samples from the covariance models chosen according to the TC characteristics at a given moment in time are concatenated, producing a continuous non-stationary precipitation pattern in a Lagrangian framework. The simulated precipitation for each event is finally distributed along the stochastic TC track and blended with a non-TC background precipitation using a data assimilation technique. The proposed framework provides means of efficient simulation (10000 seasons simulated in a couple of days) and robust typhoon precipitation patterns consistent with observed regional climate and visually undistinguishable from high resolution NWP output. The framework is used to simulate a catalog of 10000 typhoon

  9. Comparison of Explicitly Simulated and Downscaled Tropical Cyclone Activity in a High-Resolution Global Climate Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hirofumi Tomita

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The response of tropical cyclone activity to climate change is a matter of great inherent interest and practical importance. Most current global climate models are not, however, capable of adequately resolving tropical cyclones; this has led to the development of downscaling techniques designed to infer tropical cyclone activity from the large-scale fields produced by climate models. Here we compare the statistics of tropical cyclones simulated explicitly in a very high resolution (~14 km grid mesh global climate model to the results of one such downscaling technique driven by the same global model. This is done for a simulation of the current climate and also for a simulation of a climate warmed by the addition of carbon dioxide. The explicitly simulated and downscaled storms are similarly distributed in space, but the intensity distribution of the downscaled events has a somewhat longer high-intensity tail, owing to the higher resolution of the downscaling model. Both explicitly simulated and downscaled events show large increases in the frequency of events at the high-intensity ends of their respective intensity distributions, but the downscaled storms also show increases in low-intensity events, whereas the explicitly simulated weaker events decline in number. On the regional scale, there are large differences in the responses of the explicitly simulated and downscaled events to global warming. In particular, the power dissipation of downscaled events shows a 175% increase in the Atlantic, while the power dissipation of explicitly simulated events declines there.

  10. Simulation of tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific based on CMIP5 models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Haibo; Zhou, Weican; Zhao, Haikun

    2017-09-01

    Based on the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project 5 (CMIP5) models, the tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the summers of 1965-2005 over the western North Pacific (WNP) is simulated by a TC dynamically downscaling system. In consideration of diversity among climate models, Bayesian model averaging (BMA) and equal-weighed model averaging (EMA) methods are applied to produce the ensemble large-scale environmental factors of the CMIP5 model outputs. The environmental factors generated by BMA and EMA methods are compared, as well as the corresponding TC simulations by the downscaling system. Results indicate that BMA method shows a significant advantage over the EMA. In addition, impacts of model selections on BMA method are examined. To each factor, ten models with better performance are selected from 30 CMIP5 models and then conduct BMA, respectively. As a consequence, the ensemble environmental factors and simulated TC activity are similar with the results from the 30 models' BMA, which verifies the BMA method can afford corresponding weight for each model in the ensemble based on the model's predictive skill. Thereby, the existence of poor performance models will not particularly affect the BMA effectiveness and the ensemble outcomes are improved. Finally, based upon the BMA method and downscaling system, we analyze the sensitivity of TC activity to three important environmental factors, i.e., sea surface temperature (SST), large-scale steering flow, and vertical wind shear. Among three factors, SST and large-scale steering flow greatly affect TC tracks, while average intensity distribution is sensitive to all three environmental factors. Moreover, SST and vertical wind shear jointly play a critical role in the inter-annual variability of TC lifetime maximum intensity and frequency of intense TCs.

  11. The Next-Generation Goddard Convective-Stratiform Heating Algorithm: New Model Simulations for Tropical and Continental Summertime Environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lang, S. E.; Tao, W. K.; Wu, D.

    2016-12-01

    The Goddard Convective-Stratiform Heating (or CSH) algorithm is used to retrieve estimates of cloud heating over the global Tropics using TRMM rainfall data and a set of look-up-tables (LUTs) derived from a series of multi-week cloud-resolving model (CRM) simulations using the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble model (or GCE). These simulations link satellite observables (i.e., surface rainfall and stratiform fraction) with cloud heating profiles, which are not directly observable. The strength of the algorithm relies in part on the representativeness of the simulations; more realistic simulations provide a stronger link between the observables and simulated heating profiles. The current "TRMM" version of the CSH algorithm relies on 2D GCE simulations using an improved version of the Goddard 3-class ice scheme (3ICE), a moderate-sized domain, and 1-km horizontal resolution. Updating the LUTs, which are suitable for tropical and continental summertime environments requires new, more realistic GCE simulations. New simulations are performed using a new, improved 4-class ice scheme, which has been shown to outperform the 3ICE scheme, especially for intense convection. Additional grid configurations are also tested and evaluated to find the best overall setup to for re-deriving and updating the CSH tropical/summertime LUTs.

  12. Study of tropical clouds feedback to a climate warming as simulated by climate models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brient, Florent

    2012-01-01

    amplitude of cloud feedback is proportional to the cloud cooling effect in the present climate. This effect is influenced by uncertain parameters of model physics which modify intensity of the positive β feedback between cloud radiative cooling, relative humidity and cloud fraction (self-maintenance of low clouds) In order to assess the generality of this feedback mechanism, we perform among several atmospheric CMIP5 models. Those models simulate a robust positive tropical low cloud feedback. The use of seasonal variability to anticipate amplitudes of low-cloud response under global warming, and to design an observational test for their evaluation will be discussed. (author)

  13. Interannual Tropical Rainfall Variability in General Circulation Model Simulations Associated with the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sperber, K. R.; Palmer, T. N.

    1996-11-01

    The interannual variability of rainfall over the Indian subcontinent, the African Sahel, and the Nordeste region of Brazil have been evaluated in 32 models for the period 1979-88 as part of the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP). The interannual variations of Nordeste rainfall are the most readily captured, owing to the intimate link with Pacific and Atlantic sea surface temperatures. The precipitation variations over India and the Sahel are less well simulated. Additionally, an Indian monsoon wind shear index was calculated for each model. Evaluation of the interannual variability of a wind shear index over the summer monsoon region indicates that the models exhibit greater fidelity in capturing the large-scale dynamic fluctuations than the regional-scale rainfall variations. A rainfall/SST teleconnection quality control was used to objectively stratify model performance. Skill scores improved for those models that qualitatively simulated the observed rainfall/El Niño- Southern Oscillation SST correlation pattern. This subset of models also had a rainfall climatology that was in better agreement with observations, indicating a link between systematic model error and the ability to simulate interannual variations.A suite of six European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) AMIP runs (differing only in their initial conditions) have also been examined. As observed, all-India rainfall was enhanced in 1988 relative to 1987 in each of these realizations. All-India rainfall variability during other years showed little or no predictability, possibly due to internal chaotic dynamics associated with intraseasonal monsoon fluctuations and/or unpredictable land surface process interactions. The interannual variations of Nordeste rainfall were best represented. The State University of New York at Albany/National Center for Atmospheric Research Genesis model was run in five initial condition realizations. In this model, the Nordeste rainfall

  14. A comparison of PMIP2 model simulations and the MARGO proxy reconstruction for tropical sea surface temperatures at last glacial maximum

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.; Brady, E.C. [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate and Global Dynamics Division, Boulder, CO (United States); Schneider, Ralph; Weinelt, M. [Christian-Albrechts Universitaet, Institut fuer Geowissenschaften, Kiel (Germany); Kucera, M. [Eberhard-Karls Universitaet Tuebingen, Institut fuer Geowissenschaften, Tuebingen (Germany); Abe-Ouchi, A. [The University of Tokyo, Center for Climate System Research, Kashiwa (Japan); Bard, E. [CEREGE, College de France, CNRS, Universite Aix-Marseille, Aix-en-Provence (France); Braconnot, P.; Kageyama, M.; Marti, O.; Waelbroeck, C. [Unite mixte CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l' Environnement, Gif-sur-Yvette Cedex (France); Crucifix, M. [Universite Catholique de Louvain, Institut d' Astronomie et de Geophysique Georges Lemaitre, Louvain-la-Neuve (Belgium); Hewitt, C.D. [Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter (United Kingdom); Paul, A. [Bremen University, Department of Geosciences, Bremen (Germany); Rosell-Mele, A. [Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona, ICREA and Institut de Ciencia i Tecnologia Ambientals, Barcelona (Spain); Weber, S.L. [Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt (Netherlands); Yu, Y. [Chinese Academy of Sciences, LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Beijing (China)

    2009-05-15

    Results from multiple model simulations are used to understand the tropical sea surface temperature (SST) response to the reduced greenhouse gas concentrations and large continental ice sheets of the last glacial maximum (LGM). We present LGM simulations from the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project, Phase 2 (PMIP2) and compare these simulations to proxy data collated and harmonized within the Multiproxy Approach for the Reconstruction of the Glacial Ocean Surface Project (MARGO). Five atmosphere-ocean coupled climate models (AOGCMs) and one coupled model of intermediate complexity have PMIP2 ocean results available for LGM. The models give a range of tropical (defined for this paper as 15 S-15 N) SST cooling of 1.0-2.4 C, comparable to the MARGO estimate of annual cooling of 1.7{+-}1 C. The models simulate greater SST cooling in the tropical Atlantic than tropical Pacific, but interbasin and intrabasin variations of cooling are much smaller than those found in the MARGO reconstruction. The simulated tropical coolings are relatively insensitive to season, a feature also present in the MARGO transferred-based estimates calculated from planktonic foraminiferal assemblages for the Indian and Pacific Oceans. These assemblages indicate seasonality in cooling in the Atlantic basin, with greater cooling in northern summer than northern winter, not captured by the model simulations. Biases in the simulations of the tropical upwelling and thermocline found in the preindustrial control simulations remain for the LGM simulations and are partly responsible for the more homogeneous spatial and temporal LGM tropical cooling simulated by the models. The PMIP2 LGM simulations give estimates for the climate sensitivity parameter of 0.67 -0.83 C per Wm{sup -2}, which translates to equilibrium climate sensitivity for doubling of atmospheric CO{sub 2} of 2.6-3.1 C. (orig.)

  15. Understanding and simulating the link between African easterly waves and Atlantic tropical cyclones using a regional climate model: the role of domain size and lateral boundary conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Caron, Louis-Philippe [MISU, Stockholm University, Stockholm (Sweden); Universite du Quebec a Montreal, CRCMD Network, Montreal, QC (Canada); Jones, Colin G. [Swedish Meterological and Hydrological Institute, Rossby Center, Norrkoeping (Sweden)

    2012-07-15

    Using a suite of lateral boundary conditions, we investigate the impact of domain size and boundary conditions on the Atlantic tropical cyclone and african easterly Wave activity simulated by a regional climate model. Irrespective of boundary conditions, simulations closest to observed climatology are obtained using a domain covering both the entire tropical Atlantic and northern African region. There is a clear degradation when the high-resolution model domain is diminished to cover only part of the African continent or only the tropical Atlantic. This is found to be the result of biases in the boundary data, which for the smaller domains, have a large impact on TC activity. In this series of simulations, the large-scale Atlantic atmospheric environment appears to be the primary control on simulated TC activity. Weaker wave activity is usually accompanied by a shift in cyclogenesis location, from the MDR to the subtropics. All ERA40-driven integrations manage to capture the observed interannual variability and to reproduce most of the upward trend in tropical cyclone activity observed during that period. When driven by low-resolution global climate model (GCM) integrations, the regional climate model captures interannual variability (albeit with lower correlation coefficients) only if tropical cyclones form in sufficient numbers in the main development region. However, all GCM-driven integrations fail to capture the upward trend in Atlantic tropical cyclone activity. In most integrations, variations in Atlantic tropical cyclone activity appear uncorrelated with variations in African easterly wave activity. (orig.)

  16. An examination of two pathways to tropical cyclogenesis occurring in idealized simulations with a cloud-resolving numerical model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. E. Nicholls

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Simulations are conducted with a cloud-resolving numerical model to examine the transformation of a weak incipient mid-level cyclonic vortex into a tropical cyclone. Results demonstrate that two distinct pathways are possible and that development along a particular pathway is sensitive to model physics and initial conditions. One pathway involves a steady increase of the surface winds to tropical cyclone strength as the radius of maximum winds gradually decreases. A notable feature of this evolution is the creation of small-scale lower tropospheric cyclonic vorticity anomalies by deep convective towers and subsequent merger and convergence by the low-level secondary circulation. The second pathway also begins with a strengthening low-level circulation, but eventually a significantly stronger mid-level circulation develops. Cyclogenesis occurs subsequently when a small-scale surface concentrated vortex forms abruptly near the center of the larger-scale circulation. The small-scale vortex is warm core throughout the troposphere and results in a fall in local surface pressure of a few millibars. It usually develops rapidly, undergoing a modest growth to form a small tropical cyclone. Many of the simulated systems approach or reach tropical cyclone strength prior to development of a prominent mid-level vortex so that the subsequent formation of a strong small-scale surface concentrated vortex in these cases could be considered intensification rather than genesis. Experiments are performed to investigate the dependence on the inclusion of the ice phase, radiation, the size and strength of the incipient mid-level vortex, the amount of moisture present in the initial vortex, and the sea surface temperature. Notably, as the sea surface temperature is raised, the likelihood of development along the second pathway is increased. This appears to be related to an increased production of ice. The sensitivity of the pathway taken to model physics and initial

  17. Investigation of tropical diurnal convection biases in a climate model using TWP-ICE observations and convection-permitting simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, W.; Xie, S.; Jackson, R. C.; Endo, S.; Vogelmann, A. M.; Collis, S. M.; Golaz, J. C.

    2017-12-01

    Climate models are known to have difficulty in simulating tropical diurnal convections that exhibit distinct characteristics over land and open ocean. While the causes are rooted in deficiencies in convective parameterization in general, lack of representations of mesoscale dynamics in terms of land-sea breeze, convective organization, and propagation of convection-induced gravity waves also play critical roles. In this study, the problem is investigated at the process-level with the U.S. Department of Energy Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy (ACME) model in short-term hindcast mode using the Cloud Associated Parameterization Testbed (CAPT) framework. Convective-scale radar retrievals and observation-driven convection-permitting simulations for the Tropical Warm Pool-International Cloud Experiment (TWP-ICE) cases are used to guide the analysis of the underlying processes. The emphasis will be on linking deficiencies in representation of detailed process elements to the model biases in diurnal convective properties and their contrast among inland, coastal and open ocean conditions.

  18. Using the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Datasets to Evaluate Climate Models in Simulating Diurnal and Seasonal Variations of Tropical Clouds

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Hailong [Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington; Burleyson, Casey D. [Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington; Ma, Po-Lun [Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington; Fast, Jerome D. [Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington; Rasch, Philip J. [Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington

    2018-04-01

    We use the long-term Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) datasets collected at the three Tropical Western Pacific (TWP) sites as a tropical testbed to evaluate the ability of the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM5) to simulate the various types of clouds, their seasonal and diurnal variations, and their impact on surface radiation. We conducted a series of CAM5 simulations at various horizontal grid spacing (around 2°, 1°, 0.5°, and 0.25°) with meteorological constraints from reanalysis. Model biases in the seasonal cycle of cloudiness are found to be weakly dependent on model resolution. Positive biases (up to 20%) in the annual mean total cloud fraction appear mostly in stratiform ice clouds. Higher-resolution simulations do reduce the positive bias in the frequency of ice clouds, but they inadvertently increase the negative biases in convective clouds and low-level liquid clouds, leading to a positive bias in annual mean shortwave fluxes at the sites, as high as 65 W m-2 in the 0.25° simulation. Such resolution-dependent biases in clouds can adversely lead to biases in ambient thermodynamic properties and, in turn, feedback on clouds. Both the CAM5 model and ARM observations show distinct diurnal cycles in total, stratiform and convective cloud fractions; however, they are out-of-phase by 12 hours and the biases vary by site. Our results suggest that biases in deep convection affect the vertical distribution and diurnal cycle of stratiform clouds through the transport of vapor and/or the detrainment of liquid and ice. We also found that the modelled gridmean surface longwave fluxes are systematically larger than site measurements when the grid that the ARM sites reside in is partially covered by ocean. The modeled longwave fluxes at such sites also lack a discernable diurnal cycle because the ocean part of the grid is warmer and less sensitive to radiative heating/cooling compared to land. Higher spatial resolution is more helpful is this regard. Our

  19. Simulating the characteristics of tropical cyclones over the South West Indian Ocean using a Stretched-Grid Global Climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maoyi, Molulaqhooa L.; Abiodun, Babatunde J.; Prusa, Joseph M.; Veitch, Jennifer J.

    2018-03-01

    Tropical cyclones (TCs) are one of the most devastating natural phenomena. This study examines the capability of a global climate model with grid stretching (CAM-EULAG, hereafter CEU) in simulating the characteristics of TCs over the South West Indian Ocean (SWIO). In the study, CEU is applied with a variable increment global grid that has a fine horizontal grid resolution (0.5° × 0.5°) over the SWIO and coarser resolution (1° × 1°—2° × 2.25°) over the rest of the globe. The simulation is performed for the 11 years (1999-2010) and validated against the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) best track data, global precipitation climatology project (GPCP) satellite data, and ERA-Interim (ERAINT) reanalysis. CEU gives a realistic simulation of the SWIO climate and shows some skill in simulating the spatial distribution of TC genesis locations and tracks over the basin. However, there are some discrepancies between the observed and simulated climatic features over the Mozambique channel (MC). Over MC, CEU simulates a substantial cyclonic feature that produces a higher number of TC than observed. The dynamical structure and intensities of the CEU TCs compare well with observation, though the model struggles to produce TCs with a deep pressure centre as low as the observed. The reanalysis has the same problem. The model captures the monthly variation of TC occurrence well but struggles to reproduce the interannual variation. The results of this study have application in improving and adopting CEU for seasonal forecasting over the SWIO.

  20. Impact of the dynamical core on the direct simulation of tropical cyclones in a high-resolution global model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reed, K. A.

    2015-01-01

    Our paper examines the impact of the dynamical core on the simulation of tropical cyclone (TC) frequency, distribution, and intensity. The dynamical core, the central fluid flow component of any general circulation model (GCM), is often overlooked in the analysis of a model's ability to simulate TCs compared to the impact of more commonly documented components (e.g., physical parameterizations). The Community Atmosphere Model version 5 is configured with multiple dynamics packages. This analysis demonstrates that the dynamical core has a significant impact on storm intensity and frequency, even in the presence of similar large-scale environments. In particular, the spectral element core produces stronger TCs and more hurricanes than the finite-volume core using very similar parameterization packages despite the latter having a slightly more favorable TC environment. Furthermore, these results suggest that more detailed investigations into the impact of the GCM dynamical core on TC climatology are needed to fully understand these uncertainties. Key Points The impact of the GCM dynamical core is often overlooked in TC assessments The CAM5 dynamical core has a significant impact on TC frequency and intensity A larger effort is needed to better understand this uncertainty

  1. Tropical Oceanic Precipitation Processes Over Warm Pool: 2D and 3D Cloud Resolving Model Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tao, W.-K.; Johnson, D.; Simpson, J.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    Rainfall is a key link in the hydrologic cycle as well as the primary heat source for the atmosphere. The vertical distribution of convective latent-heat release modulates the large-scale circulations of the topics. Furthermore, changes in the moisture distribution at middle and upper levels of the troposphere can affect cloud distributions and cloud liquid water and ice contents. How the incoming solar and outgoing longwave radiation respond to these changes in clouds is a major factor in assessing climate change. Present large-scale weather and climate model simulate processes only crudely, reducing confidence in their predictions on both global and regional scales. One of the most promising methods to test physical parameterizations used in General Circulation Models (GCMs) and climate models is to use field observations together with Cloud Resolving Models (CRMs). The CRMs use more sophisticated and physically realistic parameterizations of cloud microphysical processes, and allow for their complex interactions with solar and infrared radiative transfer processes. The CRMs can reasonably well resolve the evolution, structure, and life cycles of individual clouds and clouds systems. The major objective of this paper is to investigate the latent heating, moisture and momentum budgets associated with several convective systems developed during the TOGA COARE IFA - westerly wind burst event (late December, 1992). The tool for this study is the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model which includes a 3-class ice-phase microphysics scheme.

  2. The ability of general circulation models to simulate tropical cyclones and their precursors over the North Atlantic main development region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Daloz, Anne Sophie; Chauvin, Fabrice [Groupe de Modelisation Grande Echelle et Climat, CNRM-GAME, Meteo-France, Toulouse Cedex 1 (France); Walsh, Kevin [University of Melbourne, School of Earth Sciences, Melbourne, VIC (Australia); Lavender, Sally; Abbs, Deborah [CSIRO Atmospheric and Marine Research, Aspendale, VIC (Australia); Roux, Frank [Universite de Toulouse and Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Laboratoire d' Aerologie, Toulouse (France)

    2012-10-15

    The ability of General Circulation Models (GCMs) to generate Tropical Cyclones (TCs) over the North Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR; 10-20 N, 20-80 W; Goldenberg and Shapiro in J Clim 9:1169-1187, 1996) is examined through a subset of ocean-atmosphere coupled simulations from the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) multimodel data set and a high-resolution (0.5 ) Sea Surface Temperature (SST)-forced simulation from the Australian Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model GCM. The results are compared with National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP-2) and European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts Re-Analysis (ERA-40) reanalyses over a common period from 1980 to 1998. Important biases in the representation of the TC activity are encountered over the MDR. This study emphasizes the strong link in the GCMs between African Easterly Waves (AEWs) and TC activity in this region. However, the generation of AEWs is not a sufficient condition alone for the models to produce TCs. Precipitation over the Sahel, especially rainfall over the Fouta Djallon highlands (cf. Fig. 1), is playing a role in the generation of TCs over the MDR. The influence of large-scale fields such as SST, vertical wind shear and tropospheric humidity on TC genesis is also examined. The ability of TC genesis indices, such as the Genesis Potential Index and the Convective Yearly Genesis Potential, to represent TC activity over the MDR in simulations at low to high spatial resolutions is analysed. These indices are found to be a reasonable method for comparing cyclogenesis in different models, even though other factors such as AEW activity should also be considered. (orig.)

  3. Simulation of Tropical Rainfall Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bader, J.; Latif, M.

    2002-12-01

    The impact of sea surface temperature (SST) - especially the role of the tropical Atlantic meridional SST gradient and the El Nino-Southern Oscillation - on precipitation is investigated with the atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM4/T42. Ensemble experiments - driven with observed SST - show that Atlantic SST has a significant influence on precipitation over West Africa and northeast Brazil. SST sensitivity experiments were performed in which the climatological SST was enhanced or decreased by one Kelvin in certain ocean areas. Changing SST in the eastern tropical Atlantic caused only significant changes along the Guinea Coast, with a positive anomaly (SSTA) increasing rainfall and a negative SSTA reducing it. The response was nearly linear. Changing SST in other ocean areas caused significant changes over West Africa, especially in the Sahel area. The response is found to be non linear, with only negative SSTA leading to significant reduction in Sahel rainfall. Also, the impact of the SSTAs from the different ocean regions was not additive with respect to the rainfall. The influence of SST on precipitation over northeast Brazil (Nordeste) was also investigated. Three experiments were performed in which the climatological SST was enhanced/decreased or decreased/enhanced by one Kelvin in the North/South Atlantic and increased by two Kelvin in the Nino3 ocean area. All experiments caused significant changes over Nordeste, with an enhanced/reduced SST gradient in the Atlantic increasing/reducing rainfall. The response was nearly linear. The main effect of the Atlantic SST gradient was a shift of the ITCZ, caused by trade wind changes. The ''El Nino'' event generates a significant reduction in Nordeste rainfall. A significant positive SLP anomaly occurs in northeast Brazil which may be associated with the descending branch of the Walker circulation. Also a significant positive SLP over the Atlantic from 30S to 10N north occurs. This results in a reduced SLP

  4. Tropical climate and vegetation cover during Heinrich event 1: Simulations with coupled climate vegetation models

    OpenAIRE

    Handiani, Dian Noor

    2012-01-01

    This study focuses on the climate and vegetation responses to abrupt climate change in the Northern Hemisphere during the last glacial period. Two abrupt climate events are explored: the abrupt cooling of the Heinrich event 1 (HE1), followed by the abrupt warming of the Bølling-Allerød interstadial (BA). These two events are simulated by perturbing the freshwater balance of the Atlantic Ocean, with the intention of altering the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and also of in...

  5. Modelling nutrient management in tropical cropping systems

    OpenAIRE

    Delve, R. (ed.); Probert, M. (ed.)

    2004-01-01

    Metadata only record In tropical regions, organic materials are often more important than fertilizers in maintaining soil fertility, yet fertilizer recommendations and most crop models are unable to take account of the level and quality of organic inputs that farmers use. Computer simulation models, such as the Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) developed by CSIRO and the Queensland Department of Primary Industries, have proven their value in many cropping environments. Thes...

  6. Simulation of aerosol optical properties over a tropical urban site in India using a global model and its comparison with ground measurements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Goto

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Aerosols have great impacts on atmospheric environment, human health, and earth's climate. Therefore, information on their spatial and temporal distribution is of paramount importance. Despite numerous studies have examined the variation and trends of BC and AOD over India, only very few have focused on their spatial distribution or even correlating the observations with model simulations. In the present study, a three-dimensional aerosol transport-radiation model coupled with a general circulation model. SPRINTARS, simulated atmospheric aerosol distributions including BC and aerosol optical properties, i.e., aerosol optical thickness (AOT, Ångström Exponent (AE, and single scattering albedo (SSA. The simulated results are compared with both BC measurements by aethalometer and aerosol optical properties measured by ground-based skyradiometer and by satellite sensor, MODIS/Terra over Hyderabad, which is a tropical urban area of India, for the year 2008. The simulated AOT and AE in Hyderabad are found to be comparable to ground-based measured ones. The simulated SSA tends to be higher than the ground-based measurements. Both these comparisons of aerosol optical properties between the simulations with different emission inventories and the measurements indicate that, firstly the model uncertainties derived from aerosol emission inventory cannot explain the gaps between the simulations and the measurements and secondly the vertical transport of BC and the treatment of BC-containing particles can be the main issue in the global model to solve the gap.

  7. Modeling radiative transfer in tropical rainforest canopies: sensitivity of simulated albedo to canopy architectural and optical parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sílvia N. M. Yanagi

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available This study evaluates the sensitivity of the surface albedo simulated by the Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS to a set of Amazonian tropical rainforest canopy architectural and optical parameters. The parameters tested in this study are the orientation and reflectance of the leaves of upper and lower canopies in the visible (VIS and near-infrared (NIR spectral bands. The results are evaluated against albedo measurements taken above the K34 site at the INPA (Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia Cuieiras Biological Reserve. The sensitivity analysis indicates a strong response to the upper canopy leaves orientation (x up and to the reflectivity in the near-infrared spectral band (rNIR,up, a smaller sensitivity to the reflectivity in the visible spectral band (rVIS,up and no sensitivity at all to the lower canopy parameters, which is consistent with the canopy structure. The combination of parameters that minimized the Root Mean Square Error and mean relative error are Xup = 0.86, rVIS,up = 0.062 and rNIR,up = 0.275. The parameterizations performed resulted in successful simulations of tropical rainforest albedo by IBIS, indicating its potential to simulate the canopy radiative transfer for narrow spectral bands and permitting close comparison with remote sensing products.Este estudo avalia a sensibilidade do albedo da superfície pelo Simulador Integrado da Biosfera (IBIS a um conjunto de parâmetros que representam algumas propriedades arquitetônicas e óticas do dossel da floresta tropical Amazônica. Os parâmetros testados neste estudo são a orientação e refletância das folhas do dossel superior e inferior nas bandas espectrais do visível (VIS e infravermelho próximo (NIR. Os resultados são avaliados contra observações feitas no sítio K34 pertencente ao Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia (INPA na Reserva Biológica de Cuieiras. A análise de sensibilidade indica uma forte resposta aos parâmetros de orienta

  8. Simulating atmospheric composition over a South-East Asian tropical rainforest: performance of a chemistry box model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. A. M. Pugh

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Atmospheric composition and chemistry above tropical rainforests is currently not well established, particularly for south-east Asia. In order to examine our understanding of chemical processes in this region, the performance of a box model of atmospheric boundary layer chemistry is tested against measurements made at the top of the rainforest canopy near Danum Valley, Malaysian Borneo. Multi-variate optimisation against ambient concentration measurements was used to estimate average canopy-scale emissions for isoprene, total monoterpenes and nitric oxide. The excellent agreement between estimated values and measured fluxes of isoprene and total monoterpenes provides confidence in the overall modelling strategy, and suggests that this method may be applied where measured fluxes are not available, assuming that the local chemistry and mixing are adequately understood. The largest contributors to the optimisation cost function at the point of best-fit are OH (29%, NO (22% and total peroxy radicals (27%. Several factors affect the modelled VOC chemistry. In particular concentrations of methacrolein (MACR and methyl-vinyl ketone (MVK are substantially overestimated, and the hydroxyl radical (OH concentration is substantially underestimated; as has been seen before in tropical rainforest studies. It is shown that inclusion of dry deposition of MACR and MVK and wet deposition of species with high Henry's Law values substantially improves the fit of these oxidised species, whilst also substantially decreasing the OH sink. Increasing OH production arbitrarily, through a simple OH recycling mechanism , adversely affects the model fit for volatile organic compounds (VOCs. Given the constraints on isoprene flux provided by measurements, a substantial decrease in the rate of reaction of VOCs with OH is the only remaining option to explain the measurement/model discrepancy for OH. A reduction in the isoprene+OH rate constant of 50%, in conjunction with

  9. ENSO dynamics and seasonal cycle in the tropical Pacific as simulated by the ECHAM4/OPYC3 coupled general circulation model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bacher, A. [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg (Germany); Oberhuber, J.M. [Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum (DKRZ), Hamburg (Germany); Roeckner, E. [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg (Germany)

    1996-07-01

    The new version of the atmospheric general circulation model, ECHAM4, at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, has been coupled to the OPYC3 isopycnic global ocean general circulation and sea ice model (Oberhuber 1993) in a multi-century present-day climate simulation. Nonseasonal constant flux adjustment for heat and freshwater was employed to ensure a long-term annual mean state close to present day climatology. This paper examines the simulated upper ocean seasonal cycle and interannual variability in the tropical Pacific for the first 100 years. The coupled model`s seasonal cycle of tropical Pacific SSTs is in good agreement with the observations with respect to both the warm pool variation and the Central and Eastern Pacific, with significant errors (up to -2 K) only in the cold tongue around April. The cold phase cold tongue extent and strength is as observed, and for this the heat flux adjustment does not play the decisive role; corrections beyond {+-}40 Wm{sup -2} are rare and only occupy small areas, such as near coasts. A well established south Pacific convergence zone is characteristic for the new AGCM version. Apart from extending the south-east trades seasonal maximum to midbasin, windstress pattern and strength are well captured. The subsurface structure is overall consistent with the observed, with a realistically sharp thermocline at about 150 m depth in the west and rising to the surface from 160 W to 100 W.

  10. Weak simulated extratropical responses to complete tropical deforestation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Findell, K.L.; Knutson, T.R.; Milly, P.C.D.

    2006-01-01

    The Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory atmosphere-land model version 2 (AM2/LM2) coupled to a 50-m-thick slab ocean model has been used to investigate remote responses to tropical deforestation. Magnitudes and significance of differences between a control run and a deforested run are assessed through comparisons of 50-yr time series, accounting for autocorrelation and field significance. Complete conversion of the broadleaf evergreen forests of South America, central Africa, and the islands of Oceania to grasslands leads to highly significant local responses. In addition, a broad but mild warming is seen throughout the tropical troposphere (deforested run and the control run are similar in magnitude and area to the differences between nonoverlapping segments of the control run. These simulations suggest that extratropical responses to complete tropical deforestation are unlikely to be distinguishable from natural climate variability.

  11. Vegetation-climate feedback causes reduced precipitation and tropical rainforest cover in CMIP5 regional Earth system model simulation over Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, M.; Smith, B.; Samuelsson, P.; Rummukainen, M.; Schurgers, G.

    2012-12-01

    We applied a coupled regional climate-vegetation model, RCA-GUESS (Smith et al. 2011), over the CORDEX Africa domain, forced by boundary conditions from a CanESM2 CMIP5 simulation under the RCP8.5 future climate scenario. The simulations were from 1961 to 2100 and covered the African continent at a horizontal grid spacing of 0.44°. RCA-GUESS simulates changes in the phenology, productivity, relative cover and population structure of up to eight plant function types (PFTs) in response to forcing from the climate part of the model. These vegetation changes feed back to simulated climate through dynamic adjustments in surface energy fluxes and surface properties. Changes in the net ecosystem-atmosphere carbon flux and its components net primary production (NPP), heterotrophic respiration and emissions from biomass burning were also simulated but do not feed back to climate in our model. Constant land cover was assumed. We compared simulations with and without vegetation feedback switched "on" to assess the influence of vegetation-climate feedback on simulated climate, vegetation and ecosystem carbon cycling. Both positive and negative warming feedbacks were identified in different parts of Africa. In the Sahel savannah zone near 15°N, reduced vegetation cover and productivity, and mortality caused by a deterioration of soil water conditions led to a positive warming feedback mediated by decreased evapotranspiration and increased sensible heat flux between vegetation and the atmosphere. In the equatorial rainforest stronghold region of central Africa, a feedback syndrome characterised by reduced plant production and LAI, a dominance shift from tropical trees to grasses, reduced soil water and reduced rainfall was identified. The likely underlying mechanism was a decline in evaporative water recycling associated with sparser vegetation cover, reminiscent of Earth system model studies in which a similar feedback mechanism was simulated to force dieback of tropical

  12. Tropical geometry of statistical models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pachter, Lior; Sturmfels, Bernd

    2004-11-16

    This article presents a unified mathematical framework for inference in graphical models, building on the observation that graphical models are algebraic varieties. From this geometric viewpoint, observations generated from a model are coordinates of a point in the variety, and the sum-product algorithm is an efficient tool for evaluating specific coordinates. Here, we address the question of how the solutions to various inference problems depend on the model parameters. The proposed answer is expressed in terms of tropical algebraic geometry. The Newton polytope of a statistical model plays a key role. Our results are applied to the hidden Markov model and the general Markov model on a binary tree.

  13. Changes in intense tropical cyclone activity for the western North Pacific during the last decades derived from a regional climate model simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barcikowska, Monika; Feser, Frauke; Zhang, Wei; Mei, Wei

    2017-11-01

    An atmospheric regional climate model (CCLM) was employed to dynamically downscale atmospheric reanalyses (NCEP/NCAR 1, ERA 40) over the western North Pacific and South East Asia. This approach is used for the first time to reconstruct a tropical cyclone climatology, which extends beyond the satellite era and serves as an alternative data set for inhomogeneous observation-derived records (Best Track Data sets). The simulated TC climatology skillfully reproduces observations of the recent decades (1978-2010), including spatial patterns, frequency, lifetime, trends, variability on interannual and decadal time scales and their association with the large-scale circulation patterns. These skills, facilitated here with the spectral nudging method, seem to be a prerequisite to understand the factors determining spatio-temporal variability of TC activity over the western North Pacific. Long-term trends (1948-2011 and 1959-2001) in both simulations show a strong increase of intense tropical cyclone activity. This contrasts with pronounced multidecadal variations found in observations. The discrepancy may partly originate from temporal inhomogeneities in atmospheric reanalyses and Best Track Data, which affect both the model-based and observational-based trends. An adjustment, which removes the simulated upward trend, reduces the apparent discrepancy. Ultimately, our observational and modeling analysis suggests an important contribution of multi-decadal fluctuations in the TC activity during the last six decades. Nevertheless, due to the uncertainties associated with the inconsistencies and quality changes of those data sets, we call for special caution when reconstructing long-term TC statistics either from atmospheric reanalyses or Best Track Data.

  14. Assessment of FAO AquaCrop Model for Simulating Maize Growth and Productivity under Deficit Irrigation in a Tropical Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Geneille E. Greaves

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Crop simulation models have a pivotal role to play in evaluating irrigation management strategies for improving agricultural water use. The objective of this study was to test and validate the AquaCrop model for maize under deficit irrigation management. Field observations from three experiments consisting of four treatments were used to evaluate model performance in simulating canopy cover (CC, biomass (B, yield (Y, crop evapotranspiration (ETc, and water use efficiency (WUE. Statistics for root mean square error, model efficiency (E, and index of agreement for B and CC suggest that the model prediction is good under non-stressed and moderate stress environments. Prediction of final B and Y under these conditions was acceptable, as indicated by the high coefficient of determination and deviations <10%. In severely stressed conditions, low E and deviations >11% for B and 9% for Y indicate a reduction in the model reliability. Simulated ETc and WUE deviation from observed values were within the range of 9.5% to 22.2% and 6.0% to 32.2%, respectively, suggesting that AquaCrop prediction of these variables is fair, becoming unsatisfactory as plant water stress intensifies. AquaCrop can be reliably used for evaluating the effectiveness of proposed irrigation management strategies for maize; however, the limitations should be kept in mind when interpreting the results in severely stressed conditions.

  15. Parameter Uncertainty on AGCM-simulated Tropical Cyclones

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, F.

    2015-12-01

    This work studies the parameter uncertainty on tropical cyclone (TC) simulations in Atmospheric General Circulation Models (AGCMs) using the Reed-Jablonowski TC test case, which is illustrated in Community Atmosphere Model (CAM). It examines the impact from 24 parameters across the physical parameterization schemes that represent the convection, turbulence, precipitation and cloud processes in AGCMs. The one-at-a-time (OAT) sensitivity analysis method first quantifies their relative importance on TC simulations and identifies the key parameters to the six different TC characteristics: intensity, precipitation, longwave cloud radiative forcing (LWCF), shortwave cloud radiative forcing (SWCF), cloud liquid water path (LWP) and ice water path (IWP). Then, 8 physical parameters are chosen and perturbed using the Latin-Hypercube Sampling (LHS) method. The comparison between OAT ensemble run and LHS ensemble run shows that the simulated TC intensity is mainly affected by the parcel fractional mass entrainment rate in Zhang-McFarlane (ZM) deep convection scheme. The nonlinear interactive effect among different physical parameters is negligible on simulated TC intensity. In contrast, this nonlinear interactive effect plays a significant role in other simulated tropical cyclone characteristics (precipitation, LWCF, SWCF, LWP and IWP) and greatly enlarge their simulated uncertainties. The statistical emulator Extended Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (EMARS) is applied to characterize the response functions for nonlinear effect. Last, we find that the intensity uncertainty caused by physical parameters is in a degree comparable to uncertainty caused by model structure (e.g. grid) and initial conditions (e.g. sea surface temperature, atmospheric moisture). These findings suggest the importance of using the perturbed physics ensemble (PPE) method to revisit tropical cyclone prediction under climate change scenario.

  16. Sensitivity of tropical cyclone simulations to microphysics parameterizations in WRF

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reshmi Mohan, P.; Srinivas, C.V.; Bhaskaran, R.; Venkatraman, B.; Yesubabu, V.

    2018-01-01

    Tropical cyclones (TC) cause storm surge along coastal areas where these storms cross the coast. As major nuclear facilities are usually installed in coastal region, the surge predictions are highly important for DAE. The critical TC parameters needed in estimating storm surge are intensity (winds, central pressure and radius of maximum winds) and storm tracks. The predictions with numerical models are generally made by representing the clouds and precipitation processes using convective and microphysics parameterization. At high spatial resolutions (1-3Km) microphysics can act as cloud resolving NWP model to explicitly resolve the convective precipitation without using convection schemes. Recent simulation studies using WRF on severe weather phenomena such as thunderstorms and hurricanes indicated large sensitivity of predicted rainfall and hurricane tracks to microphysics due to variation in temperature and pressure gradients which generate winds that determine the storm track. In the present study the sensitivity of tropical cyclone tracks and intensity to different microphysics schemes has been conducted

  17. Simulations of tropical rainforest albedo: is canopy wetness important?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silvia N.M. Yanagi

    Full Text Available Accurate information on surface albedo is essential for climate modelling, especially for regions such as Amazonia, where the response of the regional atmospheric circulation to the changes on surface albedo is strong. Previous studies have indicated that models are still unable to correctly reproduce details of the seasonal variation of surface albedo. Therefore, it was investigated the role of canopy wetness on the simulated albedo of a tropical rainforest by modifying the IBIS canopy radiation transfer code to incorporate the effects of canopy wetness on the vegetation reflectance. In this study, simulations were run using three versions of the land surface/ecosystem model IBIS: the standard version, the same version recalibrated to fit the data of albedo on tropical rainforests and a modified version that incorporates the effects of canopy wetness on surface albedo, for three sites in the Amazon forest at hourly and monthly scales. The results demonstrated that, at the hourly time scale, the incorporation of canopy wetness on the calculations of radiative transfer substantially improves the simulations results, whereas at the monthly scale these changes do not substantially modify the simulated albedo.

  18. Investigation of Future Thermal Comforts in a Tropical Megacity Using Coupling of Energy Balance Model and Large Eddy Simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sueishi, T.; Yucel, M.; Ashie, Y.; Varquez, A. C. G.; Inagaki, A.; Darmanto, N. S.; Nakayoshi, M.; Kanda, M.

    2017-12-01

    Recently, temperature in urban areas continue to rise as an effect of climate change and urbanization. Specifically, Asian megacities are projected to expand rapidly resulting to serious in the future atmospheric environment. Thus, detailed analysis of urban meteorology for Asian megacities is needed to prescribe optimum against these negative climate modifications. A building-resolving large eddy simulation (LES) coupled with an energy balance model is conducted for a highly urbanized district in central Jakarta on typical daytime hours. Five cases were considered; case 1 utilizes present urban scenario and four cases representing different urban configurations in 2050. The future configurations were based on representative concentration pathways (RCP) and shared socio-economic pathways (SSP). Building height maps and land use maps of simulation domains are shown in the attached figure (top). Case 1 3 focuses on the difference of future scenarios. Case 1 represents current climatic and urban conditions, case 2 and 3 was an idealized future represented by RCP2.6/SSP1 and RCP8.5/SSP3, respectively. More complex urban morphology was applied in case 4, vegetation and building area were changed in case 5. Meteorological inputs and anthropogenic heat emission (AHE) were calculated using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model (Varquez et al [2017]). Sensible and latent heat flux from surfaces were calculated using an energy balance model (Ashie et al [2011]), with considers multi-reflection, evapotranspiration and evaporation. The results of energy balance model (shown in the middle line of figure), in addition to WRF outputs, were used as input into the PArallelized LES Model (PALM) (Raasch et al [2001]). From standard new effective temperature (SET*) which included the effects of temperature, wind speed, humidity and radiation, thermal comfort in urban area was evaluated. SET* contours at 1 m height are shown in the bottom line of the figure. Extreme climate

  19. The roles of vertical mixing, solar radiation, and wind stress in a model simulation of the sea surface temperature seasonal cycle in the tropical Pacfic Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Dake; Busalacchi, Antonio J.; Rothstein, Lewis M.

    1994-01-01

    The climatological seasonal cycle of sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Pacific is simulated using a newly developed upper ocean model. The roles of vertical mixing, solar radiation, and wind stress are investigated in a hierarchy of numerical experiments with various combinations of vertical mixing algorithms and surface-forcing products. It is found that the large SST annual cycle in the eastern equatorial Pacific is, to a large extent, controlled by the annually varying mixed layer depth which, in turn, is mainly determined by the competing effects of solar radiation and wind forcing. With the application of our hybrid vertical mixing scheme the model-simulated SST annual cycle is much improved in both amplitude and phase as compared to the case of a constant mixed layer depth. Beside the strong effects on vertical mixing, solar radiation is the primary heating term in the surface layer heat budget, and wind forcing influences SST by driving oceanic advective processes that redistribute heat in the upper ocean. For example, the SST seasonal cycle in the western Pacific basically follows the semiannual variation of solar heating, and the cycle in the central equatorial region is significantly affected by the zonal advective heat flux associated with the seasonally reversing South Equatorial Current. It has been shown in our experiments that the amount of heat flux modification needed to eliminate the annual mean SST errors in the model is, on average, no larger than the annual mean uncertainties among the various surface flux products used in this study. Whereas a bias correction is needed to account for remaining uncertainties in the annual mean heat flux, this study demonstrates that with proper treatment of mixed layer physics and realistic forcing functions the seasonal variability of SST is capable of being simulated successfully in response to external forcing without relying on a relaxation or damping formulation for the dominant surface heat

  20. Changes in tropical cyclones under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios as simulated by the Community Atmospheric Model under the HAPPI protocols

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. F. Wehner

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC invited the scientific community to explore the impacts of a world in which anthropogenic global warming is stabilized at only 1.5 °C above preindustrial average temperatures. We present a projection of future tropical cyclone statistics for both 1.5 and 2.0 °C stabilized warming scenarios with direct numerical simulation using a high-resolution global climate model. As in similar projections at higher warming levels, we find that even at these low warming levels the most intense tropical cyclones become more frequent and more intense, while simultaneously the frequency of weaker tropical storms is decreased. We also conclude that in the 1.5 °C stabilization, the effect of aerosol forcing changes complicates the interpretation of greenhouse gas forcing changes.

  1. Changes in tropical cyclones under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios as simulated by the Community Atmospheric Model under the HAPPI protocols

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wehner, Michael F.; Reed, Kevin A.; Loring, Burlen; Stone, Dáithí; Krishnan, Harinarayan

    2018-02-01

    The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the scientific community to explore the impacts of a world in which anthropogenic global warming is stabilized at only 1.5 °C above preindustrial average temperatures. We present a projection of future tropical cyclone statistics for both 1.5 and 2.0 °C stabilized warming scenarios with direct numerical simulation using a high-resolution global climate model. As in similar projections at higher warming levels, we find that even at these low warming levels the most intense tropical cyclones become more frequent and more intense, while simultaneously the frequency of weaker tropical storms is decreased. We also conclude that in the 1.5 °C stabilization, the effect of aerosol forcing changes complicates the interpretation of greenhouse gas forcing changes.

  2. Variations in the width of the Indo-Pacific tropical rain belt over the last millennium: synthesis of stalagmite proxy records and climate model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ummenhofer, Caroline; Denniston, Rhawn

    2017-04-01

    The seasonal north-south migration of the intertropical convergence zone defines the tropical rain belt (TRB), a region of enormous terrestrial biodiversity and home to 40% of the world's population. The TRB is dynamic and has been shown to shift south as a coherent system during periods of Northern Hemisphere cooling. However, recent studies of Indo-Pacific hydroclimate suggest that during the Little Ice Age (AD 1400-1850), the TRB in this region contracted rather than being displaced uniformly southward. This behaviour is not well understood, particularly during climatic fluctuations less pronounced than those of the Little Ice Age, the largest centennial-scale cool period of the last millennium. Using state-of-the-art climate model simulations conducted as part of the Last Millennium Ensemble with the Community Earth System Model (CESM), we evaluate variations in the width of the Indo-Pacific TRB, as well as movements in the position of its northward and southward edges, across a range of timescales over the pre-Industrial portion of the last millennium (AD 850-1850). The climate model results complement a recent reconstruction of late Holocene variability of the Indo-Pacific TRB, based on a precisely-dated, monsoon-sensitive stalagmite reconstruction from northern Australia (cave KNI-51), located at the southern edge of the TRB and thus highly sensitive to variations at its southern edge. Integrating KNI-51 with a record from Dongge Cave in southern China allows a stalagmite-based TRB reconstruction. Our results reveal that rather than shifting meridionally, the Indo-Pacific TRB expanded and contracted over multidecadal/centennial time scales during the late Holocene, with symmetric weakening/strengthening of summer monsoons in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres of the Indo-Pacific (the East Asian summer monsoon in China and the Australian summer monsoon in northern Australia). Links to large-scale climatic conditions across the Indo-Pacific region

  3. An ecosystem model for tropical forest disturbance and selective logging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maoyi Huang; Gregory P. Asner; Michael Keller; Joseph A. Berry

    2008-01-01

    [1] A new three-dimensional version of the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach (CASA) ecosystem model (CASA-3D) was developed to simulate regional carbon cycling in tropical forest ecosystems after disturbances such as logging. CASA-3D has the following new features: (1) an alternative approach for calculating absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (APAR) using new...

  4. Tropical cyclones in the GISS ModelE2

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suzana J. Camargo

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available The authors describe the characteristics of tropical cyclone (TC activity in the GISS general circulation ModelE2 with a horizontal resolution 1°×1°. Four model simulations are analysed. In the first, the model is forced with sea surface temperature (SST from the recent historical climatology. The other three have different idealised climate change simulations, namely (1 a uniform increase of SST by 2 degrees, (2 doubling of the CO2 concentration and (3 a combination of the two. These simulations were performed as part of the US Climate Variability and Predictability Program Hurricane Working Group. Diagnostics of standard measures of TC activity are computed from the recent historical climatological SST simulation and compared with the same measures computed from observations. The changes in TC activity in the three idealised climate change simulations, by comparison with that in the historical climatological SST simulation, are also described. Similar to previous results in the literature, the changes in TC frequency in the simulation with a doubling CO2 and an increase in SST are approximately the linear sum of the TC frequency in the other two simulations. However, in contrast with previous results, in these simulations the effects of CO2 and SST on TC frequency oppose each other. Large-scale environmental variables associated with TC activity are then analysed for the present and future simulations. Model biases in the large-scale fields are identified through a comparison with ERA-Interim reanalysis. Changes in the environmental fields in the future climate simulations are shown and their association with changes in TC activity discussed.

  5. Resolving Tropical Cyclone Intensity in Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, C. A.

    2018-02-01

    In recent years, global weather forecast models and global climate models have begun to depict intense tropical cyclones, even up to category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale. In light of the limitation of horizontal resolution in such models, the author performs calculations, using the extended Best Track data for Atlantic tropical cyclones, to estimate the ability of models with differing grid spacing to represent Atlantic tropical cyclone intensity statistically. Results indicate that, under optimistic assumptions, models with horizontal grid spacing of one fourth degree or coarser should not produce a realistic number of category 4 and 5 storms unless there are errors in spatial attributes of the wind field. Furthermore, the case of Irma (2017) is used to demonstrate the importance of a realistic depiction of angular momentum and to motivate the use of angular momentum in model evaluation.

  6. Coupling of latent heat flux and the greenhouse effect by large-scale tropical/subtropical dynamics diagnosed in a set of observations and model simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gershunov, A. [Climate Research Division, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA 92093-0224 (United States); Roca, R. [Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique, Ecole Polytechnique, 91128 Palaiseau (France)

    2004-03-01

    Coupled variability of the greenhouse effect (GH) and latent heat flux (LHF) over the tropical - subtropical oceans is described, summarized and compared in observations and a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (CGCM). Coupled seasonal and interannual modes account for much of the total variability in both GH and LHF. In both observations and model, seasonal coupled variability is locally 180 out-of-phase throughout the tropics. Moisture is brought into convergent/convective regions from remote source areas located partly in the opposite, non-convective hemisphere. On interannual time scales, the tropical Pacific GH in the ENSO region of largest interannual variance is 180 out of phase with local LHF in observations but in phase in the model. A local source of moisture is thus present in the model on interannual time scales while in observations, moisture is mostly advected from remote source regions. The latent cooling and radiative heating of the surface as manifested in the interplay of LHF and GH is an important determinant of the current climate. Moreover, the hydrodynamic processes involved in the GH-LHF interplay determine in large part the climate response to external perturbations mainly through influencing the water vapor feedback but also through their intimate connection to the hydrological cycle. The diagnostic process proposed here can be performed on other CGCMs. Similarly, it should be repeated using a number of observational latent heat flux datasets to account for the variability in the different satellite retrievals. A realistic CGCM could be used to further study these coupled dynamics in natural and anthropogenically altered climate conditions. (orig.)

  7. Large-eddy simulation of maritime deep tropical convection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter A Bogenschutz

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available This study represents an attempt to apply Large-Eddy Simulation (LES resolution to simulate deep tropical convection in near equilibrium for 24 hours over an area of about 205 x 205 km2, which is comparable to that of a typical horizontal grid cell in a global climate model. The simulation is driven by large-scale thermodynamic tendencies derived from mean conditions during the GATE Phase III field experiment. The LES uses 2048 x 2048 x 256 grid points with horizontal grid spacing of 100 m and vertical grid spacing ranging from 50 m in the boundary layer to 100 m in the free troposphere. The simulation reaches a near equilibrium deep convection regime in 12 hours. The simulated vertical cloud distribution exhibits a trimodal vertical distribution of deep, middle and shallow clouds similar to that often observed in Tropics. A sensitivity experiment in which cold pools are suppressed by switching off the evaporation of precipitation results in much lower amounts of shallow and congestus clouds. Unlike the benchmark LES where the new deep clouds tend to appear along the edges of spreading cold pools, the deep clouds in the no-cold-pool experiment tend to reappear at the sites of the previous deep clouds and tend to be surrounded by extensive areas of sporadic shallow clouds. The vertical velocity statistics of updraft and downdraft cores below 6 km height are compared to aircraft observations made during GATE. The comparison shows generally good agreement, and strongly suggests that the LES simulation can be used as a benchmark to represent the dynamics of tropical deep convection on scales ranging from large turbulent eddies to mesoscale convective systems. The effect of horizontal grid resolution is examined by running the same case with progressively larger grid sizes of 200, 400, 800, and 1600 m. These runs show a reasonable agreement with the benchmark LES in statistics such as convective available potential energy, convective inhibition

  8. Mesoscale simulation of tropical cyclones in the South Pacific: Climatology and interannual variability

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Jourdain, N.C.; Marchesiello, P.; Menkes, C.E.; Lefevre, J.; Vincent, E.M.; Lengaigne, M.; Chauvin, F.

    The Weather Research and Forecast model at 1/3 degree resolution is used to simulate the statistics of tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the present climate of the South Pacific. In addition to the large-scale conditions, the model is shown...

  9. Hydrological simulation in a basin of typical tropical climate and soil using the SWAT model part I: Calibration and validation tests

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Donizete dos R. Pereira

    2016-09-01

    New hydrological insights: The SWAT model was qualified for simulating the Pomba River sub-basin in the sites where rainfall representation was reasonable to good. The model can be used in the simulation of maximum, average and minimum annual daily streamflow based on the paired t-test, contributing with the water resources management of region, although the model still needs to be improved, mainly in the representativeness of rainfall, to give better estimates of extreme values.

  10. Intercomparison of the seasonal cycle of tropical surface stress in 17 AMIP atmospheric general circulation models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Saji, N.H.; Goswami, B.N. [Indian Inst. of Sci., Bangalore (India). Centre for Atmos. and Oceanic Sci.

    1997-08-01

    The mean state of the tropical atmosphere is important as the nature of the coupling between the ocean and the atmosphere depends nonlinearly on the basic state of the coupled system. The simulation of the annual cycle of the tropical surface wind stress by 17 atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) is examined and intercompared. The models considered were part of the atmospheric model intercomparison project (AMIP) and were integrated with observed sea surface temperature (SST) for the decade 1979-1988. Several measures have been devised to intercompare the performance of the 17 models on global tropical as well as regional scales. Within the limits of observational uncertainties, the models under examination simulate realistic tropical area-averaged zonal and meridional annual mean stresses. This is a noteworthy improvement over older generation low resolution models which were noted for their simulation of surface stresses considerably weaker than the observations. The models also simulate realistic magnitudes of the spatial distribution of the annual mean surface stress field and are seen to reproduce realistically its observed spatial pattern. Similar features are observed in the simulations of the annual variance field. The models perform well over almost all the tropical regions apart from a few. Of these, the simulations over Somali are interesting. Over this region, the models are seen to underestimate the annual mean zonal and meridional stresses. There is also wide variance between the different models in simulating these quantities. 44 refs.

  11. Modelling tropical forests response to logging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cazzolla Gatti, Roberto; Di Paola, Arianna; Valentini, Riccardo; Paparella, Francesco

    2013-04-01

    Tropical rainforests are among the most threatened ecosystems by large-scale fragmentation due to human activity such as heavy logging and agricultural clearance. Although, they provide crucial ecosystem goods and services, such as sequestering carbon from the atmosphere, protecting watersheds and conserving biodiversity. In several countries forest resource extraction has experienced a shift from clearcutting to selective logging to maintain a significant forest cover and understock of living biomass. However the knowledge on the short and long-term effects of removing selected species in tropical rainforest are scarce and need to be further investigated. One of the main effects of selective logging on forest dynamics seems to be the local disturbance which involve the invasion of open space by weed, vines and climbers at the expense of the late-successional state cenosis. We present a simple deterministic model that describes the dynamics of tropical rainforest subject to selective logging to understand how and why weeds displace native species. We argue that the selective removal of tallest tropical trees carries out gaps of light that allow weeds, vines and climbers to prevail on native species, inhibiting the possibility of recovery of the original vegetation. Our results show that different regime shifts may occur depending on the type of forest management adopted. This hypothesis is supported by a dataset of trees height and weed/vines cover that we collected from 9 plots located in Central and West Africa both in untouched and managed areas.

  12. Evaluation Metrics for Simulations of Tropical South America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallup, S.; Baker, I. T.; Denning, A. S.; Cheeseman, M.; Haynes, K. D.; Phillips, M.

    2017-12-01

    The evergreen broadleaf forest of the Amazon Basin is the largest rainforest on earth, and has teleconnections to global climate and carbon cycle characteristics. This region defies simple characterization, spanning large gradients in total rainfall and seasonal variability. Broadly, the region can be thought of as trending from light-limited in its wettest areas to water-limited near the ecotone, with individual landscapes possibly exhibiting the characteristics of either (or both) limitations during an annual cycle. A basin-scale classification of mean behavior has been elusive, and ecosystem response to seasonal cycles and anomalous drought events has resulted in some disagreement in the literature, to say the least. However, new observational platforms and instruments make characterization of the heterogeneity and variability more feasible.To evaluate simulations of ecophysiological function, we develop metrics that correlate various observational products with meteorological variables such as precipitation and radiation. Observations include eddy covariance fluxes, Solar Induced Fluorescence (SIF, from GOME2 and OCO2), biomass and vegetation indices. We find that the modest correlation between SIF and precipitation decreases with increasing annual precipitation, although the relationship is not consistent between products. Biomass increases with increasing precipitation. Although vegetation indices are generally correlated with biomass and precipitation, they can saturate or experience retrieval issues during cloudy periods.Using these observational products and relationships, we develop a set of model evaluation metrics. These metrics are designed to call attention to models that get "the right answer only if it's for the right reason," and provide an opportunity for more critical evaluation of model physics. These metrics represent a testbed that can be applied to multiple models as a means to evaluate their performance in tropical South America.

  13. A modelling approach for simulation of water and carbon dioxide exchange between multi-species tropical rain forest and the atmosphere

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olchev, A.; Ibrom, Andreas; Ross, T.

    2008-01-01

    An one-dimensional process-based SVAT model (Mixfor-SVAT) was developed to describe energy, water and carbon dioxide exchanges between vegetation canopy and the atmosphere at a local scale. Simulation of the energy, water and CO2 fluxes in Mixfor-SVAT is based on aggregated description...... in measured data series caused by some instrumental errors, sensor wetting, changes in the footprint or fast changes in turbulence conditions resulted in some reduction of correlation between modeled and measured fluxes (e.g. r(2) = 0.62 for CO2 and r(2) = 0.64 for H2O fluxes under friction velocity u* > 0...

  14. A New Coupled Ocean-Waves-Atmosphere Model Designed for Tropical Storm Studies: Example of Tropical Cyclone Bejisa (2013-2014) in the South-West Indian Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pianezze, J.; Barthe, C.; Bielli, S.; Tulet, P.; Jullien, S.; Cambon, G.; Bousquet, O.; Claeys, M.; Cordier, E.

    2018-03-01

    Ocean-Waves-Atmosphere (OWA) exchanges are not well represented in current Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) systems, which can lead to large uncertainties in tropical cyclone track and intensity forecasts. In order to explore and better understand the impact of OWA interactions on tropical cyclone modeling, a fully coupled OWA system based on the atmospheric model Meso-NH, the oceanic model CROCO, and the wave model WW3 and called MSWC was designed and applied to the case of tropical cyclone Bejisa (2013-2014). The fully coupled OWA simulation shows good agreement with the literature and available observations. In particular, simulated significant wave height is within 30 cm of measurements made with buoys and altimeters. Short-term (right place (in the eyewall of the tropical cyclone) and with the right size distribution, which is critical for cloud microphysics.

  15. PV (photovoltaics) performance evaluation and simulation-based energy yield prediction for tropical buildings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saber, Esmail M.; Lee, Siew Eang; Manthapuri, Sumanth; Yi, Wang; Deb, Chirag

    2014-01-01

    Air pollution and climate change increased the importance of renewable energy resources like solar energy in the last decades. Rack-mounted PhotoVoltaics (PV) and Building Integrated PhotoVoltaics (BIPV) are the most common photovoltaic systems which convert incident solar radiation on façade or surrounding area to electricity. In this paper the performance of different solar cell types is evaluated for the tropical weather of Singapore. As a case study, on-site measured data of PV systems implemented in a zero energy building in Singapore, is analyzed. Different types of PV systems (silicon wafer and thin film) have been installed on rooftop, façade, car park shelter, railing and etc. The impact of different solar cell generations, arrays environmental conditions (no shading, dappled shading, full shading), orientation (South, North, East or West facing) and inclination (between PV module and horizontal direction) is investigated on performance of modules. In the second stage of research, the whole PV systems in the case study are simulated in EnergyPlus energy simulation software with several PV performance models including Simple, Equivalent one-diode and Sandia. The predicted results by different models are compared with measured data and the validated model is used to provide simulation-based energy yield predictions for wide ranges of scenarios. It has been concluded that orientation of low-slope rooftop PV has negligible impact on annual energy yield but in case of PV external sunshade, east façade and panel slope of 30–40° are the most suitable location and inclination. - Highlights: • Characteristics of PV systems in tropics are analyzed in depth. • The ambiguity toward amorphous panel energy yield in tropics is discussed. • Equivalent-one diode and Sandia models can fairly predict the energy yield. • A general guideline is provided to estimate the energy yield of PV systems in tropics

  16. Dynamic vegetation modeling of tropical biomes during Heinrich events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Handiani, Dian Noor; Paul, André; Dupont, Lydie M.

    2010-05-01

    Heinrich events are thought to be associated with a slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), which in turn would lead to a cooling of the North Atlantic Ocean and a warming of the South Atlantic Ocean (the "bipolar seesaw" hypothesis). The accompanying abrupt climate changes occurred not only in the ocean but also on the continents. Changes were strongest in the Northern Hemisphere but were registered in the tropics as well. Pollen data from Angola and Brazil showed that climate changes during Heinrich events affected vegetation patterns very differently in eastern South America and western Africa. To understand the differential response in the terrestrial tropics, we studied the vegetation changes during Heinrich events by using a dynamic global vegetation model (TRIFFID) as part of the University of Victoria (UVic) Earth System-Climate Model (ESCM). The model results show a bipolar seesaw pattern in temperature and precipitation during a near-collapse of the AMOC. The succession in plant-functional types (PFTs) showed changes from forest to shrubs to desert, including spreading desert in northwest Africa, retreating broadleaf trees in West Africa and northern South America, but advancing broadleaf trees in Brazil. The pattern is explained by a southward shift of the tropical rainbelt resulting in a strong decrease in precipitation over northwest and West Africa as well as in northern South America, but an increase in precipitation in eastern Brazil. To facilitate the comparison between modeled vegetation results with pollen data, we diagnosed the distribution of biomes from the PFT coverage and the simulated model climate. The biome distribution was computed for Heinrich event 1 and the Last Glacial Maximum as well as for pre-industrial conditions. We used a classification of biomes in terms of "mega-biomes", which were defined following a scheme originally proposed by BIOME 6000 (v 4.2). The biome distribution of the Sahel region

  17. Life Cycle of Tropical Convection and Anvil in Observations and Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    McFarlane, S. A.; Hagos, S. M.; Comstock, J. M.

    2011-12-01

    Tropical convective clouds are important elements of the hydrological cycle and produce extensive cirrus anvils that strongly affect the tropical radiative energy balance. To improve simulations of the global water and energy cycles and accurately predict both precipitation and cloud radiative feedbacks, models need to realistically simulate the lifecycle of tropical convection, including the formation and radiative properties of ice anvil clouds. By combining remote sensing datasets from precipitation and cloud radars at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Darwin site with geostationary satellite data, we can develop observational understanding of the lifetime of convective systems and the links between the properties of convective systems and their associated anvil clouds. The relationships between convection and anvil in model simulations can then be compared to those seen in the observations to identify areas for improvement in the model simulations. We identify and track tropical convective systems in the Tropical Western Pacific using geostationary satellite observations. We present statistics of the tropical convective systems including size, age, and intensity and classify the lifecycle stage of each system as developing, mature, or dissipating. For systems that cross over the ARM Darwin site, information on convective intensity and anvil properties are obtained from the C-Pol precipitation radar and MMCR cloud radar, respectively, and are examined as a function of the system lifecycle. Initial results from applying the convective identification and tracking algorithm to a tropical simulation from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model run show that the model produces reasonable overall statistics of convective systems, but details of the life cycle (such as diurnal cycle, system tracks) differ from the observations. Further work will focus on the role of atmospheric temperature and moisture profiles in the model's convective life cycle.

  18. [Tropical pyomyositis simulating septic arthritis in AIDS patients. Two cases].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abouzahir, A; Bouchama, R; Azennag, M; Garcin, J M

    2004-01-01

    Tropical pyomyositis (TP) is an acute bacterial infection of skeletal muscles characterized by rapid formation of abscesses. Since the beginning of the AIDS epidemic, interest in TP has increased because of its rising incidence in association with HIV infection and of the problems that it poses for differential diagnosis. Occurrence of TP is a criterion for classification of HIV infected patients in WHO disease stage III. The purpose of this report is to describe two HIV-infected patients who presented TP simulating septic arthritis of the hip and knee respectively. Medical imaging was particularly useful in establishing accurate topographic diagnosis and needle drainage in decreasing the duration of hospitalization and avoiding the need for surgical debridement. Needle puncture must be guided by ultrasound or scan imaging.

  19. An application of a water assessment and simulation model in the remediation of the eutrophication capacity of a tropical water system: Case study the Lake Obili in Yaounde (Cameroon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ajeagah Gideon A.

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Lake Obili is one of the most famous lakes in the city of Yaounde, Cameroon. Studies carried out in this lake showed that it was hyper eutrophic and therefore it represents a great danger because it is used for aquaculture, tourism and a suitable laboratory for hydro-biological engineering. It is thus very vital to restore this lake ecosystem that singles itself in the heart of the city of Yaounde. This can be greatly facilitated through the use of Water Quality Analysis Simulation Program (WASP of the United State Environmental protection Agency (USEPA. The outcomes of the previous results obtained from EUTRO, a Subroutine of the WASP model specialised in determining eutrophication level have proven that the remediation of this lake can be achievable through the implementation of a wet dredging, the construction and restoration of a wastewater treatment plant, the implementation of environmental incentive policies and the arrangement of the access to the lake. The application of the model is a contribution to the scientific mastery of nutrient flow, lake functioning and possibilities of restauration of highly polluted tropical water bodies subjected to domestic and industrial pollution.

  20. Rediscovery of the doldrums in storm-resolving simulations over the tropical Atlantic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klocke, Daniel; Brueck, Matthias; Hohenegger, Cathy; Stevens, Bjorn

    2017-12-01

    The doldrums — a zone of calm and variable winds in the deep tropics between the trades — were of key importance to nineteenth century maritime travel. As a result, the region was a focus in atmospheric science at that time. However, as sailing ships were replaced by steamboats, scientific interest shifted to the heavy precipitating storms within the doldrums: the deep convective systems of the intertropical convergence zone. Now, in storm-system-resolving simulations over a period of two months that cover a large part of the tropical Atlantic, the doldrums are one of the most prominent features. The doldrums are substantially less pronounced in coarser-resolution simulations that use a parameterization for convection, despite their large-scale extent. We conclude that explicitly representing the storm scale dynamics and their coupling to the surface wind on the storm-system scales helps to maintain the systems of winds that define the doldrums. We suggest that the lack of these wind systems could explain the persistent tropical precipitation biases in climate models.

  1. Pesticide transport simulation in a tropical catchment by SWAT

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bannwarth, M.A.; Sangchan, W.; Hugenschmidt, C.; Lamers, M.; Ingwersen, J.; Ziegler, A.D.; Streck, T.

    2014-01-01

    The application of agrochemicals in Southeast Asia is increasing in rate, variety and toxicity with alarming speed. Understanding the behavior of these different contaminants within the environment require comprehensive monitoring programs as well as accurate simulations with hydrological models. We used the SWAT hydrological model to simulate the fate of three different pesticides, one of each usage type (herbicide, fungicide and insecticide) in a mountainous catchment in Northern Thailand. Three key parameters were identified: the sorption coefficient, the decay coefficient and the coefficient controlling pesticide percolation. We yielded satisfactory results simulating pesticide load dynamics during the calibration period (NSE: 0.92–0.67); the results during the validation period were also acceptable (NSE: 0.61–0.28). The results of this study are an important step in understanding the modeling behavior of these pesticides in SWAT and will help to identify thresholds of worst-case scenarios in order to assess the risk for the environment. - Highlights: • We performed a global LH-sensitivity analysis of all pesticide related parameters. • Key physical parameters are associated to percolation, degradation and sorption. • We simulated the measured loads of three different pesticides. • We performed an uncertainty analysis of all pesticide simulations. • All Pesticides differed considerably in their sensitivity and simulation behavior. - Pesticide load simulations of three pesticides were modeled by SWAT, providing clues on how to handle pesticides in future SWAT studies

  2. Tropical Hydroclimate Change during Heinrich Stadial 1: An Integrative Proxy-Model Synthesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawman, A. E.; Sun, T.; Shanahan, T. M.; Di Nezio, P. N.; Gomez, K.; Piatrunia, N.; Sun, C.; Wu, X.; Kageyama, M.; Merkel, U.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.; Abe-Ouchi, A.; Lohmann, G.; Singarayer, J. S.

    2017-12-01

    We explore the response of tropical climate to abrupt cooling of the North Atlantic (NA) during Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS1) combining paleoclimate proxies with model simulations. A total of 146 published paleoclimate records from tropical locations are used to categorize whether HS1 was wetter, drier, or unchanged relative to a deglacial baseline state. Only records with sufficient resolution to resolve HS1 and sufficient length to characterize the deglacial trend are considered. This synthesis reveals large-scale patterns of hydroclimate change relative to glacial conditions, confirming previously reported weaker Indian summer monsoon, a wetter southern Africa, and drying over the Caribbean. Our synthesis also reveals large-scale drying over the Maritime continent as well as wetter conditions in northern Australia and southern tropical South America. Our reinterpretation of the available proxy data reveals far more complexity and uncertainties for equatorial East Africa, a region that appears to straddle a pattern of dryer conditions to the north and wetter conditions to the south. Overall, these patterns of hydroclimate change depart from a southward shift of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), particularly outside the tropical Atlantic. We explore mechanisms driving these changes using a multi-model ensemble of "hosing" simulations performed relative to glacial conditions. The models show robust weakening of the Afro-Asian Monsoon, which we attribute to ventilation of colder mid-latitude air. Not all models simulate the remaining patterns inferred from the proxy data. The best-agreeing models indicate that cooling over the tropical NA and the Caribbean may be essential to communicate the response to the global tropics. This response can induce warming over the tropical South Atlantic via the wind-evaporation-SST feedback, driving wetter conditions in South Africa and tropical South America. Cooling over the Caribbean is communicated to the Pacific over the

  3. Simulating seasonal tropical cyclone intensities at landfall along the South China coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lok, Charlie C. F.; Chan, Johnny C. L.

    2018-04-01

    A numerical method is developed using a regional climate model (RegCM3) and the Weather Forecast and Research (WRF) model to predict seasonal tropical cyclone (TC) intensities at landfall for the South China region. In designing the model system, three sensitivity tests have been performed to identify the optimal choice of the RegCM3 model domain, WRF horizontal resolution and WRF physics packages. Driven from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System Reanalysis dataset, the model system can produce a reasonable distribution of TC intensities at landfall on a seasonal scale. Analyses of the model output suggest that the strength and extent of the subtropical ridge in the East China Sea are crucial to simulating TC landfalls in the Guangdong and Hainan provinces. This study demonstrates the potential for predicting TC intensities at landfall on a seasonal basis as well as projecting future climate changes using numerical models.

  4. Regional modelling of tracer transport by tropical convection – Part 2: Sensitivity to model resolutions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Arteta

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available The general objective of this series of two papers is to evaluate long duration limited-area simulations with idealised tracers as a possible tool to assess the tracer transport in chemistry-transport models (CTMs. In this second paper we analyse the results of three simulations using different horizontal and vertical resolutions. The goal is to study the impact of the model spatial resolution on convective transport of idealized tracer in the tropics. The reference simulation (REF uses a 60 km horizontal resolution and 300 m vertically in the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere (UTLS. A 20 km horizontal resolution simulation (HR is run as well as a simulation with 850 m vertical resolution in the UTLS (CVR. The simulations are run for one month during the SCOUT-O3 field campaign. Aircraft data, TRMM rainrate estimates and radiosoundings have been used to evaluate the simulations. They show that the HR configuration gives generally a better agreement with the measurements than the REF simulation. The CVR simulation gives generally the worst results. The vertical distribution of the tropospheric tracers for the simulations has a similar shape with a ~15 km altitude maximum for the 6h-lifetime tracer of 0.4 ppbv for REF, 1.2 for HR and 0.04 for CVR. These differences are related to the dynamics produced by the three simulations that leads to larger values of the upward velocities on average for HR and lower for CVR compared to REF. HR simulates more frequent and stronger convection leading to enhanced fluxes compared to REF and higher detrainment levels compared to CVR. HR provides also occasional overshoots over the cold point dynamical barrier. For the stratospheric tracers the differences between the three simulations are small. The diurnal cycle of the fluxes of all tracers in the Tropical Tropopause Layer exhibits a maximum linked to the maximum of convective activity.

  5. Model simulations of rainfall over southern Africa and its eastern ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2016-01-01

    Jan 1, 2016 ... Rainfall simulations over southern and tropical Africa in the form of low-resolution Atmospheric Model ..... provision of sea-surface temperatures and sea-ice fields of a host ...... with variability of the Atlantic Ocean. Bull.

  6. Generation of a stochastic precipitation model for the tropical climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ng, Jing Lin; Abd Aziz, Samsuzana; Huang, Yuk Feng; Wayayok, Aimrun; Rowshon, MK

    2017-06-01

    A tropical country like Malaysia is characterized by intense localized precipitation with temperatures remaining relatively constant throughout the year. A stochastic modeling of precipitation in the flood-prone Kelantan River Basin is particularly challenging due to the high intermittency of precipitation events of the northeast monsoons. There is an urgent need to have long series of precipitation in modeling the hydrological responses. A single-site stochastic precipitation model that includes precipitation occurrence and an intensity model was developed, calibrated, and validated for the Kelantan River Basin. The simulation process was carried out separately for each station without considering the spatial correlation of precipitation. The Markov chains up to the fifth-order and six distributions were considered. The daily precipitation data of 17 rainfall stations for the study period of 1954-2013 were selected. The results suggested that second- and third-order Markov chains were suitable for simulating monthly and yearly precipitation occurrences, respectively. The fifth-order Markov chain resulted in overestimation of precipitation occurrences. For the mean, distribution, and standard deviation of precipitation amounts, the exponential, gamma, log-normal, skew normal, mixed exponential, and generalized Pareto distributions performed superiorly. However, for the extremes of precipitation, the exponential and log-normal distributions were better while the skew normal and generalized Pareto distributions tend to show underestimations. The log-normal distribution was chosen as the best distribution to simulate precipitation amounts. Overall, the stochastic precipitation model developed is considered a convenient tool to simulate the characteristics of precipitation in the Kelantan River Basin.

  7. Idealized tropical cyclone simulations of intermediate complexity: A test case for AGCMs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kevin Reed

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available The paper introduces a moist, deterministic test case of intermediate complexity for Atmospheric General Circulation Models (AGCMs. We suggest pairing an AGCM dynamical core with simple physical parameterizations to test the evolution of a single, idealized, initially weak vortex into a tropical cyclone. The initial conditions are based on an initial vortex seed that is in gradient-wind and hydrostatic balance. The suggested ``simple-physics'' package consists of parameterizations of bulk aerodynamic surface fluxes for moisture, sensible heat and momentum, boundary layer diffusion, and large-scale condensation. Such a configuration includes the important driving mechanisms for tropical cyclones, and leads to a rapid intensification of the initial vortex over a forecast period of ten days. The simple-physics test paradigm is not limited to tropical cyclones, and can be universally applied to other flow fields. The physical parameterizations are described in detail to foster model intercomparisons.The characteristics of the intermediate-complexity test case are demonstrated with the help of four hydrostatic dynamical cores that are part of the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM 5 developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR. In particular, these are the Finite-Volume, Spectral Element, and spectral transform Eulerian and semi-Lagrangian dynamical cores that are coupled to the simple-physics suite. The simulations show that despite the simplicity of the physics forcings the models develop the tropical cyclone at horizontal grid spacings of about 55 km and finer. The simple-physics simulations reveal essential differences in the storm's structure and strength due to the choice of the dynamical core. Similar differences are also seen in complex full-physics aqua-planet experiments with CAM 5 which serve as a motivator for this work. The results suggest that differences in complex full-physics simulations can be, at least

  8. Numerical Simulation of Flood Levels for Tropical Rivers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mohammed, Thamer Ahmed; Said, Salim; Bardaie, Mohd Zohadie; Basri, Shah Nor

    2011-01-01

    Flood forecasting is important for flood damage reduction. As a result of advances in the numerical methods and computer technologies, many mathematical models have been developed and used for hydraulic simulation of the flood. These simulations usually include the prediction of the flood width and depth along a watercourse. Results obtained from the application of hydraulic models will help engineers to take precautionary measures to minimize flood damage. Hydraulic models were used to simulate the flood can be classified into dynamic hydraulic models and static hydraulic models. The HEC-2 static hydraulic model was used to predict water surface profiles for Linggi river and Langat river in Malaysia. The model is based on the numerical solution of the one dimensional energy equation of the steady gradually varied flow using the iteration technique. Calibration and verification of the HEC-2 model were conducted using the recorded data for both rivers. After calibration, the model was applied to predict the water surface profiles for Q10, Q30, and Q100 along the watercourse of the Linggi river. The water surface profile for Q200 for Langat river was predicted. The predicted water surface profiles were found in agreement with the recorded water surface profiles. The value of the maximum computed absolute error in the predicted water surface profile was found to be 500 mm while the minimum absolute error was 20 mm only.

  9. Conducting model ecosystem studies in tropical climate zones: Lessons learned from Thailand and way forward

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Daam, Michiel A., E-mail: mdaam@isa.utl.pt [Instituto Superior de Agronomia, Technical University of Lisbon, Tapada da Ajuda, 1349-017 Lisbon (Portugal); Van den Brink, Paul J., E-mail: Paul.vandenbrink@wur.nl [Alterra, Wageningen University and Research centre, P.O. Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen (Netherlands); Wageningen University, Department of Aquatic Ecology and Water Quality Management, Wageningen University and Research centre, P.O. Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen (Netherlands)

    2011-04-15

    Little research has been done so far into the environmental fate and side effects of pesticides in the tropics. In addition, those studies conducted in tropical regions have focused almost exclusively on single species laboratory tests. Hence, fate and effects of pesticides on higher-tier levels have barely been studied under tropical conditions. To address this lack of knowledge, four outdoor aquatic model ecosystem experiments using two different test systems were conducted in Thailand evaluating the insecticide chlorpyrifos, the herbicide linuron and the fungicide carbendazim. Results of these experiments and comparisons of recorded fate and effects with temperate studies have been published previously. The present paper discusses the pros and cons of the methodologies applied and provides indications for i) possible improvements; ii) important aspects that should be considered when performing model ecosystem experiments in the tropics; iii) future research. - Research highlights: > Methodologies used overall seemed adequate to evaluate pesticide stress. > Identification and sampling of tropical macroinvertebrates should be improved. > Additional studies needed for different compounds and greater geographical scale. > Different exposure regimes and ecosystem types should be simulated. > Trophic interrelationship and recovery potential need to be evaluated. - Methodologies for conducting model ecosystem studies in the tropics.

  10. Tropical climate and vegetation changes during Heinrich Event 1: a model-data comparison

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Handiani

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Abrupt climate changes from 18 to 15 thousand years before present (kyr BP associated with Heinrich Event 1 (HE1 had a strong impact on vegetation patterns not only at high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, but also in the tropical regions around the Atlantic Ocean. To gain a better understanding of the linkage between high and low latitudes, we used the University of Victoria (UVic Earth System-Climate Model (ESCM with dynamical vegetation and land surface components to simulate four scenarios of climate-vegetation interaction: the pre-industrial era, the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, and a Heinrich-like event with two different climate backgrounds (interglacial and glacial. We calculated mega-biomes from the plant-functional types (PFTs generated by the model to allow for a direct comparison between model results and palynological vegetation reconstructions.

    Our calculated mega-biomes for the pre-industrial period and the LGM corresponded well with biome reconstructions of the modern and LGM time slices, respectively, except that our pre-industrial simulation predicted the dominance of grassland in southern Europe and our LGM simulation resulted in more forest cover in tropical and sub-tropical South America.

    The HE1-like simulation with a glacial climate background produced sea-surface temperature patterns and enhanced inter-hemispheric thermal gradients in accordance with the "bipolar seesaw" hypothesis. We found that the cooling of the Northern Hemisphere caused a southward shift of those PFTs that are indicative of an increased desertification and a retreat of broadleaf forests in West Africa and northern South America. The mega-biomes from our HE1 simulation agreed well with paleovegetation data from tropical Africa and northern South America. Thus, according to our model-data comparison, the reconstructed vegetation changes for the tropical regions around the Atlantic Ocean were physically consistent with the remote

  11. Impact of spectral nudging on the downscaling of tropical cyclones in regional climate simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Suk-Jin; Lee, Dong-Kyou

    2016-06-01

    This study investigated the simulations of three months of seasonal tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the western North Pacific using the Advanced Research WRF Model. In the control experiment (CTL), the TC frequency was considerably overestimated. Additionally, the tracks of some TCs tended to have larger radii of curvature and were shifted eastward. The large-scale environments of westerly monsoon flows and subtropical Pacific highs were unreasonably simulated. The overestimated frequency of TC formation was attributed to a strengthened westerly wind field in the southern quadrants of the TC center. In comparison with the experiment with the spectral nudging method, the strengthened wind speed was mainly modulated by large-scale flow that was greater than approximately 1000 km in the model domain. The spurious formation and undesirable tracks of TCs in the CTL were considerably improved by reproducing realistic large-scale atmospheric monsoon circulation with substantial adjustment between large-scale flow in the model domain and large-scale boundary forcing modified by the spectral nudging method. The realistic monsoon circulation took a vital role in simulating realistic TCs. It revealed that, in the downscaling from large-scale fields for regional climate simulations, scale interaction between model-generated regional features and forced large-scale fields should be considered, and spectral nudging is a desirable method in the downscaling method.

  12. Simulation modeling and arena

    CERN Document Server

    Rossetti, Manuel D

    2015-01-01

    Emphasizes a hands-on approach to learning statistical analysis and model building through the use of comprehensive examples, problems sets, and software applications With a unique blend of theory and applications, Simulation Modeling and Arena®, Second Edition integrates coverage of statistical analysis and model building to emphasize the importance of both topics in simulation. Featuring introductory coverage on how simulation works and why it matters, the Second Edition expands coverage on static simulation and the applications of spreadsheets to perform simulation. The new edition als

  13. Mass balance model parameter transferability on a tropical glacier

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gurgiser, Wolfgang; Mölg, Thomas; Nicholson, Lindsey; Kaser, Georg

    2013-04-01

    The mass balance and melt water production of glaciers is of particular interest in the Peruvian Andes where glacier melt water has markedly increased water supply during the pronounced dry seasons in recent decades. However, the melt water contribution from glaciers is projected to decrease with appreciable negative impacts on the local society within the coming decades. Understanding mass balance processes on tropical glaciers is a prerequisite for modeling present and future glacier runoff. As a first step towards this aim we applied a process-based surface mass balance model in order to calculate observed ablation at two stakes in the ablation zone of Shallap Glacier (4800 m a.s.l., 9°S) in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru. Under the tropical climate, the snow line migrates very frequently across most of the ablation zone all year round causing large temporal and spatial variations of glacier surface conditions and related ablation. Consequently, pronounced differences between the two chosen stakes and the two years were observed. Hourly records of temperature, humidity, wind speed, short wave incoming radiation, and precipitation are available from an automatic weather station (AWS) on the moraine near the glacier for the hydrological years 2006/07 and 2007/08 while stake readings are available at intervals of between 14 to 64 days. To optimize model parameters, we used 1000 model simulations in which the most sensitive model parameters were varied randomly within their physically meaningful ranges. The modeled surface height change was evaluated against the two stake locations in the lower ablation zone (SH11, 4760m) and in the upper ablation zone (SH22, 4816m), respectively. The optimal parameter set for each point achieved good model skill but if we transfer the best parameter combination from one stake site to the other stake site model errors increases significantly. The same happens if we optimize the model parameters for each year individually and transfer

  14. Multi-Scale Models for the Scale Interaction of Organized Tropical Convection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Qiu

    Assessing the upscale impact of organized tropical convection from small spatial and temporal scales is a research imperative, not only for having a better understanding of the multi-scale structures of dynamical and convective fields in the tropics, but also for eventually helping in the design of new parameterization strategies to improve the next-generation global climate models. Here self-consistent multi-scale models are derived systematically by following the multi-scale asymptotic methods and used to describe the hierarchical structures of tropical atmospheric flows. The advantages of using these multi-scale models lie in isolating the essential components of multi-scale interaction and providing assessment of the upscale impact of the small-scale fluctuations onto the large-scale mean flow through eddy flux divergences of momentum and temperature in a transparent fashion. Specifically, this thesis includes three research projects about multi-scale interaction of organized tropical convection, involving tropical flows at different scaling regimes and utilizing different multi-scale models correspondingly. Inspired by the observed variability of tropical convection on multiple temporal scales, including daily and intraseasonal time scales, the goal of the first project is to assess the intraseasonal impact of the diurnal cycle on the planetary-scale circulation such as the Hadley cell. As an extension of the first project, the goal of the second project is to assess the intraseasonal impact of the diurnal cycle over the Maritime Continent on the Madden-Julian Oscillation. In the third project, the goals are to simulate the baroclinic aspects of the ITCZ breakdown and assess its upscale impact on the planetary-scale circulation over the eastern Pacific. These simple multi-scale models should be useful to understand the scale interaction of organized tropical convection and help improve the parameterization of unresolved processes in global climate models.

  15. An Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE to Assess the Impact of Doppler Wind Lidar (DWL Measurements on the Numerical Simulation of a Tropical Cyclone

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lei Zhang

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The importance of wind observations has been recognized for many years. However, wind observations—especially three-dimensional global wind measurements—are very limited. A satellite-based Doppler Wind Lidar (DWL is proposed to measure three-dimensional wind profiles using remote sensing techniques. Assimilating these observations into a mesoscale model is expected to improve the performance of the numerical weather prediction (NWP models. In order to examine the potential impact of the DWL three-dimensional wind profile observations on the numerical simulation and prediction of tropical cyclones, a set of observing simulation system experiments (OSSEs is performed using the advanced research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF model and its three-dimensional variational (3DVAR data assimilation system. Results indicate that assimilating the DWL wind observations into the mesoscale numerical model has significant potential for improving tropical cyclone track and intensity forecasts.

  16. Modelling of Box Type Solar Cooker Performance in a Tropical ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Thermal performance model of box type solar cooker with loaded water is presented. The model was developed using the method of Funk to estimate cooking power in terms of climatic and design parameters for box type solar cooker in a tropical environment. Coefficients for each term used in the model were determined ...

  17. A climatological model of North Indian Ocean tropical cyclone genesis, tracks and landfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wahiduzzaman, Mohammad; Oliver, Eric C. J.; Wotherspoon, Simon J.; Holbrook, Neil J.

    2017-10-01

    Extensive damage and loss of life can be caused by tropical cyclones (TCs) that make landfall. Modelling of TC landfall probability is beneficial to insurance/re-insurance companies, decision makers, government policy and planning, and residents in coastal areas. In this study, we develop a climatological model of tropical cyclone genesis, tracks and landfall for North Indian Ocean (NIO) rim countries based on kernel density estimation, a generalised additive model (GAM) including an Euler integration step, and landfall detection using a country mask approach. Using a 35-year record (1979-2013) of tropical cyclone track observations from the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (part of the International Best Track Archive Climate Stewardship Version 6), the GAM is fitted to the observed cyclone track velocities as a smooth function of location in each season. The distribution of cyclone genesis points is approximated by kernel density estimation. The model simulated TCs are randomly selected from the fitted kernel (TC genesis), and the cyclone paths (TC tracks), represented by the GAM together with the application of stochastic innovations at each step, are simulated to generate a suite of NIO rim landfall statistics. Three hindcast validation methods are applied to evaluate the integrity of the model. First, leave-one-out cross validation is applied whereby the country of landfall is determined by the majority vote (considering the location by only highest percentage of landfall) from the simulated tracks. Second, the probability distribution of simulated landfall is evaluated against the observed landfall. Third, the distances between the point of observed landfall and simulated landfall are compared and quantified. Overall, the model shows very good cross-validated hindcast skill of modelled landfalling cyclones against observations in each of the NIO tropical cyclone seasons and for most NIO rim countries, with only a relatively small difference in the percentage of

  18. Aviation Safety Simulation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Houser, Scott; Yackovetsky, Robert (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    The Aviation Safety Simulation Model is a software tool that enables users to configure a terrain, a flight path, and an aircraft and simulate the aircraft's flight along the path. The simulation monitors the aircraft's proximity to terrain obstructions, and reports when the aircraft violates accepted minimum distances from an obstruction. This model design facilitates future enhancements to address other flight safety issues, particularly air and runway traffic scenarios. This report shows the user how to build a simulation scenario and run it. It also explains the model's output.

  19. Simulation of maize growth under conservation farming in tropical environments.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stroosnijder, L.; Kiepe, P.

    1998-01-01

    This book is written for students and researchers with a keen interest in the quantification of the field soil water balance in tropical environments and the effect of conservation farming on crop production. Part 1 deals with the potential production, i.e. crop growth under ample supply of water

  20. Convection links biomass burning to increased tropical ozone: However, models will tend to overpredict O3

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chatfield, Robert B.; Delany, Anthony C.

    1990-10-01

    Biomass burning throughout the inhabited portions of the tropics generates precursors which lead to significant local atmospheric ozone pollution. Several simulations show how this smog could be only an easily observed, local manifestation of a much broader increase in tropospheric ozone. We illustrate basic processes with a one-dimensional time-dependent model that is closer to true meteorological motions than commonly used eddy diffusion models. Its application to a representative region of South America gives reasonable simulations of the local pollutants measured there. Three illustrative simulations indicate the importance of dilution, principally due to vertical transport, in increasing the efficiency of ozone production, possibly enough for high ozone to be apparent on a very large, intercontinental scale. In the first, cook-then-mix, simulation the nitrogen oxides and other burning-produced pollutants are confined to a persistently subsident fair weather boundary layer for several days, and the resultant ozone is found to have only a transient influence on the whole column of tropospheric ozone. In the second, mix-then-cook, simulation the effect of typical cumulonimbus convection, which vents an actively polluted boundary layer, is to make a persistent increase in the tropical ozone column. Such a broadly increased ozone column is observed over the the populated "continental" portion of the tropics. A third simulation averages all emission, transport, and deposition parameters, representing one column in a global tropospheric model that does not simulate individual weather events. This "oversmoothing" simulation produces 60% more ozone than observed or otherwise modeled. Qualitatively similar overprediction is suggested for all models which average significantly in time or space, as all need do. Clearly, simulating these O3 levels will depend sensitively on knowledge of the timing of emissions and transport.

  1. Impact of different vertical transport representations on simulating processes in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ploeger, Felix

    2011-07-06

    The chemical and dynamical processes in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL) control the amount of radiatively active species like water vapour and ozone in the stratosphere, and hence turn out to be crucial for atmospheric trends and climate change. Chemistry transport models and chemistry climate models are suitable tools to understand these processes. But model results are subject to uncertainties arising from the parametrization of model physics. In this thesis the sensitivity of model predictions to the choice of the vertical transport representation will be analysed. Therefore, backtrajectories are calculated in the TTL, based on different diabatic and kinematic transport representations using ERA-Interim and operational ECMWF data. For diabatic transport on potential temperature levels, the vertical velocity is deduced from the ERA-Interim diabatic heat budget. For kinematic transport on pressure levels, the vertical wind is used as vertical velocity. It is found that all terms in the diabatic heat budget are necessary to cause transport from the troposphere to the stratosphere. In particular, clear-sky heating rates alone miss very important processes. Many characteristics of transport in the TTL turn out to depend very sensitively on the choice of the vertical transport representation. Timescales for tropical troposphere-to-stratosphere transport vary between one and three months, with respect to the chosen representation. Moreover, for diabatic transport ascent is found throughout the upper TTL, whereas for kinematic transport regions of mean subsidence occur, particularly above the maritime continent. To investigate the sensitivity of simulated trace gas distributions in the TTL to the transport representation, a conceptual approach is presented to predict water vapour and ozone concentrations from backtrajectories, based on instantaneous freeze-drying and photochemical ozone production. It turns out that ozone predictions and vertical dispersion of the

  2. Are Simulated and Observed Twentieth Century Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Trends Significant Relative to Internal Variability?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coats, S.; Karnauskas, K. B.

    2017-10-01

    Historical trends in the tropical Pacific zonal sea surface temperature gradient (SST gradient) are analyzed herein using 41 climate models (83 simulations) and 5 observational data sets. A linear inverse model is trained on each simulation and observational data set to assess if trends in the SST gradient are significant relative to the stationary statistics of internal variability, as would suggest an important role for external forcings such as anthropogenic greenhouse gasses. None of the 83 simulations have a positive trend in the SST gradient, a strengthening of the climatological SST gradient with more warming in the western than eastern tropical Pacific, as large as the mean trend across the five observational data sets. If the observed trends are anthropogenically forced, this discrepancy suggests that state-of-the-art climate models are not capturing the observed response of the tropical Pacific to anthropogenic forcing, with serious implications for confidence in future climate projections. There are caveats to this interpretation, however, as some climate models have a significant strengthening of the SST gradient between 1900 and 2013 Common Era, though smaller in magnitude than the observational data sets, and the strengthening in three out of five observational data sets is insignificant. When combined with observational uncertainties and the possibility of centennial time scale internal variability not sampled by the linear inverse model, this suggests that confident validation of anthropogenic SST gradient trends in climate models will require further emergence of anthropogenic trends. Regardless, the differences in SST gradient trends between climate models and observational data sets are concerning and motivate the need for process-level validation of the atmosphere-ocean dynamics relevant to climate change in the tropical Pacific.

  3. Tropical intraseasonal oscillation simulated in an AMIP-type experiment by NICAM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kikuchi, Kazuyoshi; Kodama, Chihiro; Nasuno, Tomoe; Nakano, Masuo; Miura, Hiroaki; Satoh, Masaki; Noda, Akira T.; Yamada, Yohei

    2017-04-01

    It is the first time for the non-hydrostatic icosahedral atmospheric model (NICAM), at a horizontal mesh size of approximately 14-km, to conduct a continuous long-term Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project-type simulation. This study examines the performance of NICAM in simulating the tropical intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) from a statistical point of view using 30-year data (1979-2008) in the context of the bimodal ISO representation concept proposed by Kikuchi et al., which allows us to examine the seasonally varying behavior of the ISO in great detail, in addition to the MJO working group level 2 diagnostics. It is found that many of the fundamental features of the ISO are well captured by NICAM. The evolution of the ISO convection as well as large-scale circulation over the course of its life cycle is reasonably well reproduced throughout the year. As in the observation, the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) mode, characterized by prominent eastward propagation of convection, is predominant during boreal winter, whereas the boreal summer ISO (BSISO) mode, by a combination of pronounced eastward and northward propagation, during summer. The overall shape of the seasonal cycle as measured by the numbers of significant MJO and BSISO days in a month is relatively well captured. Two major biases, however, are also identified. The amplitude of the simulated ISO is weaker by a factor of 2. Significant BSISO events sometimes appear even during winter (December-April), amounting to 30 % of the total significant ISO days as opposed to 2 % in the observation. The results here warrant further studies using the simulation dataset to understand not only many aspects of the dynamics and physics of the ISO but also its role in weather and climate. It is also demonstrated that the concept of the bimodal ISO representation provides a useful framework for assessing model's capability to simulate, and illuminating model's deficiencies in reproducing, the ISO. The nature and

  4. Evaluation of simulated tropical convective updraft hydrometeor properties using aircraft observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stanford, McKenna W.

    The High Altitude Ice Crystals - High Ice Water Content (HAIC-HIWC) field campaign produced aircraft retrievals of total condensed water content (TWC), hydrometeor particle size distributions, and vertical velocity (w) in high ice water content regions of tropical mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). These observations are used to evaluate deep convective updraft properties in high-resolution nested Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) simulations of observed MCSs. Because simulated hydrometeor properties are highly sensitive to the parameterization of microphysics, three commonly used microphysical parameterizations are tested, including two bulk schemes (Thompson and Morrison) and one bin scheme (Fast Spectral Bin Microphysics). A commonly documented bias in cloud-resolving simulations is the exaggeration of simulated radar reflectivities aloft in tropical MCSs. This may result from overly strong convective updrafts that loft excessive condensate mass and from simplified approximations of hydrometeor size distributions, properties, species separation, and microphysical processes. The degree to which the reflectivity bias is a separate function of convective dynamics, condensate mass, and hydrometeor size has yet to be addressed. This research untangles these components by comparing simulated and observed relationships between w, TWC, and hydrometer size as a function of temperature. All microphysics schemes produce median mass diameters that are generally larger than observed for temperatures between -10 °C and -40 °C and TWC > 1 g m-3. Observations produce a prominent mode in the composite mass size distribution around 300 microm, but under most conditions, all schemes shift the distribution mode to larger sizes. Despite a much greater number of samples, all simulations fail to reproduce observed high TWC or high w conditions between -20 °C and -40 °C in which only a small fraction of condensate mass is found in relatively large particle sizes. Increasing

  5. Simulation in Complex Modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nicholas, Paul; Ramsgaard Thomsen, Mette; Tamke, Martin

    2017-01-01

    This paper will discuss the role of simulation in extended architectural design modelling. As a framing paper, the aim is to present and discuss the role of integrated design simulation and feedback between design and simulation in a series of projects under the Complex Modelling framework. Complex...... performance, engage with high degrees of interdependency and allow the emergence of design agency and feedback between the multiple scales of architectural construction. This paper presents examples for integrated design simulation from a series of projects including Lace Wall, A Bridge Too Far and Inflated...... Restraint developed for the research exhibition Complex Modelling, Meldahls Smedie Gallery, Copenhagen in 2016. Where the direct project aims and outcomes have been reported elsewhere, the aim for this paper is to discuss overarching strategies for working with design integrated simulation....

  6. The 3-D Tropical Convective Cloud Spectrum in AMIE Radar Observations and Global Climate Simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schumacher, Courtney [Texas A & M Univ., College Station, TX (United States). Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences

    2015-08-31

    During the three years of this grant performance, the PI and her research group have made a number of significant contributions towards determining properties of tropical deep convective clouds and how models depict and respond to the heating associated with tropical convective systems. The PI has also been an active ARM/ASR science team member, including playing a significant role in AMIE and GoAmazon2014/5. She served on the DOE ASR radar science steering committee and was a joint chair of the Mesoscale Convective Organization group under the Cloud Life Cycle working group. This grant has funded a number of graduate students, many of them women, and the PI and her group have presented their DOE-supported work at various universities and national meetings. The PI and her group participated in the AMIE (2011-12) and GoAmazon2014/5 (2014-15) DOE field deployments that occurred in the tropical Indian Ocean and Brazilian Amazon, respectively. AMIE observational results (DePasquale et al. 2014, Feng et al. 2014, Ahmed and Schumacher 2015) focus on the variation and possible importance of Kelvin waves in various phases of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), on the synergy of the different wavelength radars deployed on Addu Atoll, and on the importance of humidity thresholds in the tropics on stratiform rain production. Much of the PIs GoAmazon2014/5 results to date relate to overviews of the observations made during the field campaign (Martin et al. 2015, 2016; Fuentes et al. 2016), but also include the introduction of the descending arm and its link to ozone transport from the mid-troposphere to the surface (Gerken et al. 2016). Vertical motion and mass flux profiles from GoAmazon (Giangrande et al. 2016) also show interesting patterns between seasons and provide targets for model simulations. Results from TWP-ICE (Schumacher et al. 2015), which took place in Darwin, Australia in 2006 show that vertical velocity retrievals from the profilers provide structure to

  7. A critical assessment of the JULES land surface model hydrology for humid tropical environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zulkafli, Z.; Buytaert, W.; Onof, C.; Lavado, W.; Guyot, J. L.

    2013-03-01

    Global land surface models (LSMs) such as the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) are originally developed to provide surface boundary conditions for climate models. They are increasingly used for hydrological simulation, for instance to simulate the impacts of land use changes and other perturbations on the water cycle. This study investigates how well such models represent the major hydrological fluxes at the relevant spatial and temporal scales - an important question for reliable model applications in poorly understood, data-scarce environments. The JULES-LSM is implemented in a 360 000 km2 humid tropical mountain basin of the Peruvian Andes-Amazon at 12-km grid resolution, forced with daily satellite and climate reanalysis data. The simulations are evaluated using conventional discharge-based evaluation methods, and by further comparing the magnitude and internal variability of the basin surface fluxes such as evapotranspiration, throughfall, and surface and subsurface runoff of the model with those observed in similar environments elsewhere. We find reasonably positive model efficiencies and high correlations between the simulated and observed streamflows, but high root-mean-square errors affecting the performance in smaller, upper sub-basins. We attribute this to errors in the water balance and JULES-LSM's inability to model baseflow. We also found a tendency to under-represent the high evapotranspiration rates of the region. We conclude that strategies to improve the representation of tropical systems to be (1) addressing errors in the forcing and (2) incorporating local wetland and regional floodplain in the subsurface representation.

  8. Scientific Modeling and simulations

    CERN Document Server

    Diaz de la Rubia, Tomás

    2009-01-01

    Showcases the conceptual advantages of modeling which, coupled with the unprecedented computing power through simulations, allow scientists to tackle the formibable problems of our society, such as the search for hydrocarbons, understanding the structure of a virus, or the intersection between simulations and real data in extreme environments

  9. Computer Modeling and Simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pronskikh, V. S. [Fermilab

    2014-05-09

    Verification and validation of computer codes and models used in simulation are two aspects of the scientific practice of high importance and have recently been discussed by philosophers of science. While verification is predominantly associated with the correctness of the way a model is represented by a computer code or algorithm, validation more often refers to model’s relation to the real world and its intended use. It has been argued that because complex simulations are generally not transparent to a practitioner, the Duhem problem can arise for verification and validation due to their entanglement; such an entanglement makes it impossible to distinguish whether a coding error or model’s general inadequacy to its target should be blamed in the case of the model failure. I argue that in order to disentangle verification and validation, a clear distinction between computer modeling (construction of mathematical computer models of elementary processes) and simulation (construction of models of composite objects and processes by means of numerical experimenting with them) needs to be made. Holding on to that distinction, I propose to relate verification (based on theoretical strategies such as inferences) to modeling and validation, which shares the common epistemology with experimentation, to simulation. To explain reasons of their intermittent entanglement I propose a weberian ideal-typical model of modeling and simulation as roles in practice. I suggest an approach to alleviate the Duhem problem for verification and validation generally applicable in practice and based on differences in epistemic strategies and scopes

  10. Automated Simulation Model Generation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huang, Y.

    2013-01-01

    One of today's challenges in the field of modeling and simulation is to model increasingly larger and more complex systems. Complex models take long to develop and incur high costs. With the advances in data collection technologies and more popular use of computer-aided systems, more data has become

  11. Flood simulation model using XP-SWMM along Terengganu River ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Malaysia is one of the tropical countries in the world with heavy rainfall throughout the year and floods are the most common disaster in Malaysia. Flood simulation model was carried out along Terengganu River for dry and rainy seasons. The result of the simulation shows the water level reached its maximum level at the 1st ...

  12. Coupled model simulations of twentieth century climate of the Indian ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    models showed serious problems in simulating the northward seasonal migration of the Inter- tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) into the Indian landmass. They have also shown .... state-of-the-art AGCMs when forced by observed. SST are unable to simulate properly Asian–Pacific summer monsoon rainfall. In their analysis ...

  13. Towards a Statistical Model of Tropical Cyclone Genesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandez, A.; Kashinath, K.; McAuliffe, J.; Prabhat, M.; Stark, P. B.; Wehner, M. F.

    2017-12-01

    Tropical Cyclones (TCs) are important extreme weather phenomena that have a strong impact on humans. TC forecasts are largely based on global numerical models that produce TC-like features. Aspects of Tropical Cyclones such as their formation/genesis, evolution, intensification and dissipation over land are important and challenging problems in climate science. This study investigates the environmental conditions associated with Tropical Cyclone Genesis (TCG) by testing how accurately a statistical model can predict TCG in the CAM5.1 climate model. TCG events are defined using TECA software @inproceedings{Prabhat2015teca, title={TECA: Petascale Pattern Recognition for Climate Science}, author={Prabhat and Byna, Surendra and Vishwanath, Venkatram and Dart, Eli and Wehner, Michael and Collins, William D}, booktitle={Computer Analysis of Images and Patterns}, pages={426-436}, year={2015}, organization={Springer}} to extract TC trajectories from CAM5.1. L1-regularized logistic regression (L1LR) is applied to the CAM5.1 output. The predictions have nearly perfect accuracy for data not associated with TC tracks and high accuracy differentiating between high vorticity and low vorticity systems. The model's active variables largely correspond to current hypotheses about important factors for TCG, such as wind field patterns and local pressure minima, and suggests new routes for investigation. Furthermore, our model's predictions of TC activity are competitive with the output of an instantaneous version of Emanuel and Nolan's Genesis Potential Index (GPI) @inproceedings{eman04, title = "Tropical cyclone activity and the global climate system", author = "Kerry Emanuel and Nolan, {David S.}", year = "2004", pages = "240-241", booktitle = "26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology"}.

  14. Forty years experience in developing and using rainfall simulators under tropical and Mediterranean conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pla-Sentís, Ildefonso; Nacci, Silvana

    2010-05-01

    Rainfall simulation has been used as a practical tool for evaluating the interaction of falling water drops on the soil surface, to measure both stability of soil aggregates to drop impact and water infiltration rates. In both cases it is tried to simulate the effects of natural rainfall, which usually occurs at very different, variable and erratic rates and intensities. One of the main arguments against the use of rainfall simulators is the difficulty to reproduce the size, final velocity and kinetic energy of the drops in natural rainfall. Since the early 70´s we have been developing and using different kinds of rainfall simulators, both at laboratory and field levels, and under tropical and Mediterranean soil and climate conditions, in flat and sloping lands. They have been mainly used to evaluate the relative effects of different land use and management, including different cropping systems, tillage practices, surface soil conditioning, surface covers, etc. on soil water infiltration, on runoff and on erosion. Our experience is that in any case it is impossible to reproduce the variable size distribution and terminal velocity of raindrops, and the variable changes in intensity of natural storms, under a particular climate condition. In spite of this, with the use of rainfall simulators it is possible to obtain very good information, which if it is properly interpreted in relation to each particular condition (land and crop management, rainfall characteristics, measurement conditions, etc.) may be used as one of the parameters for deducing and modelling soil water balance and soil moisture regime under different land use and management and variable climate conditions. Due to the possibility for a better control of the intensity of simulated rainfall and of the size of water drops, and the possibility to make more repeated measurements under very variable soil and land conditions, both in the laboratory and specially in the field, the better results have been

  15. AEGIS geologic simulation model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Foley, M.G.

    1982-01-01

    The Geologic Simulation Model (GSM) is used by the AEGIS (Assessment of Effectiveness of Geologic Isolation Systems) program at the Pacific Northwest Laboratory to simulate the dynamic geology and hydrology of a geologic nuclear waste repository site over a million-year period following repository closure. The GSM helps to organize geologic/hydrologic data; to focus attention on active natural processes by requiring their simulation; and, through interactive simulation and calibration, to reduce subjective evaluations of the geologic system. During each computer run, the GSM produces a million-year geologic history that is possible for the region and the repository site. In addition, the GSM records in permanent history files everything that occurred during that time span. Statistical analyses of data in the history files of several hundred simulations are used to classify typical evolutionary paths, to establish the probabilities associated with deviations from the typical paths, and to determine which types of perturbations of the geologic/hydrologic system, if any, are most likely to occur. These simulations will be evaluated by geologists familiar with the repository region to determine validity of the results. Perturbed systems that are determined to be the most realistic, within whatever probability limits are established, will be used for the analyses that involve radionuclide transport and dose models. The GSM is designed to be continuously refined and updated. Simulation models are site specific, and, although the submodels may have limited general applicability, the input data equirements necessitate detailed characterization of each site before application

  16. Validation of simulation models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rehman, Muniza; Pedersen, Stig Andur

    2012-01-01

    In philosophy of science, the interest for computational models and simulations has increased heavily during the past decades. Different positions regarding the validity of models have emerged but the views have not succeeded in capturing the diversity of validation methods. The wide variety...

  17. Regionally Varying Assessments of Tropical Width in Reanalyses and CMIP5 Models Using a Tropopause Break Metric

    Science.gov (United States)

    Homeyer, C. R.; Martin, E. R.; McKinzie, R.; McCarthy, K.

    2017-12-01

    The boundary between the tropics and the extratropics in each hemisphere is not fixed in space or time. Variations in the north-south width of the tropics are directly connected to changes in weather and climate. These fluctuations have been shown to impact tropical biodiversity, the spread of vector borne diseases, atmospheric chemistry, and additional natural and human sectors. However, there is no unanimous definition of the tropical boundary. This has led to a disagreement on the magnitude of changes in the tropical width during the past 30 years and a lack of understanding concerning its spatial and temporal variability. This study identifies the variability of the tropical width in modern reanalyses (ERA-Interim, JRA-55, CFSR, MERRA, and MERRA-2) and CMIP5 models (all models with available 6-hourly output) using a novel analysis metric: the tropopause "break" (i.e., the sharp discontinuity in tropopause altitude between the tropics and extratropics). Similarities and differences are found amongst the reanalyses, with some degree of tropical narrowing in the Eastern Pacific between 1981 and 2010. Historical simulations from the CMIP5 models agree well with the tropopause break latitudes depicted by the reanalyses, with considerable differences in estimated trends over the relatively short overlapping time period of the datasets. For future projections under the RCP8.5 scenario from 2006 to 2100, CMIP5 models generally show statistically significant increases in tropical width (at the 99% level) throughout each hemisphere, with regional variability of 1-2 degrees in poleward latitude trends. The impact of CMIP5 model grid resolution and other factors on the results of the tropopause break analysis will be discussed.

  18. The medium precipitation in Colombia by the light of the observations, the climatic simulation and the tropical medium circulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Montoya Gaviria, Gerardo de Jesus; Eslava R, Jesus Antonio; Pabon Caicedo, Jose Daniel

    2001-01-01

    An analysis of the physical mechanisms governing the annual precipitation cycle formation over the Colombian territory is made. This analysis is carried out using climate simulations, means Reanalysis values and is supported by the existing theory about the mean tropical circulation. Some results are: Judging by the wind discontinuity; the Inter tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) is fractionated over the South American Continent and remains all the year in the northern hemisphere in both oceans: Pacific and Atlantic. The low pressure system which forms in middle latitudes over the South American Continent during the Austral summer, deep penetrates onto tropical latitudes where, probably merges with the equatorial low of this season. There is a strong influence of the north eastern trades over the north eastern region of South America specially from December to February. As these winds enter onto the South American Continent, they associate with a current, does not yet mentioned in the existing literature, witch bounds the eastern side of the Andes and deep penetrates until middle latitudes in South America during this season. It is confirmed by the Reanalysis that seasonal migration of the ITCZ over Colombia may be used to explain the annual cycle precipitation formation over the most Colombia Territory. The results of this study are useful to have a more precise understanding of the tropical circulation over the Colombia Territory and can also be used in meteorological a hydrological modelling validation studies

  19. Tropical convection regimes in climate models: evaluation with satellite observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steiner, Andrea K.; Lackner, Bettina C.; Ringer, Mark A.

    2018-04-01

    High-quality observations are powerful tools for the evaluation of climate models towards improvement and reduction of uncertainty. Particularly at low latitudes, the most uncertain aspect lies in the representation of moist convection and interaction with dynamics, where rising motion is tied to deep convection and sinking motion to dry regimes. Since humidity is closely coupled with temperature feedbacks in the tropical troposphere, a proper representation of this region is essential. Here we demonstrate the evaluation of atmospheric climate models with satellite-based observations from Global Positioning System (GPS) radio occultation (RO), which feature high vertical resolution and accuracy in the troposphere to lower stratosphere. We focus on the representation of the vertical atmospheric structure in tropical convection regimes, defined by high updraft velocity over warm surfaces, and investigate atmospheric temperature and humidity profiles. Results reveal that some models do not fully capture convection regions, particularly over land, and only partly represent strong vertical wind classes. Models show large biases in tropical mean temperature of more than 4 K in the tropopause region and the lower stratosphere. Reasonable agreement with observations is given in mean specific humidity in the lower to mid-troposphere. In moist convection regions, models tend to underestimate moisture by 10 to 40 % over oceans, whereas in dry downdraft regions they overestimate moisture by 100 %. Our findings provide evidence that RO observations are a unique source of information, with a range of further atmospheric variables to be exploited, for the evaluation and advancement of next-generation climate models.

  20. On the relative role of fire and rainfall in determining vegetation patterns in tropical savannas: a simulation study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spessa, Allan; Fisher, Rosie

    2010-05-01

    Tropical savannas cover 18% of the world's land surface and are amongst the most productive terrestrial systems in the world. They comprise 15% of the total terrestrial carbon stock, with an estimated mean net primary productivity (NPP) of 7.2 tCha-1yr-1 or two thirds of NPP in tropical forests. Tropical savannas are the most frequently burnt biome, with fire return intervals in highly productive areas being typically 1-2 years. Fires shape vegetation species composition, tree to grass ratios and nutrient redistribution, as well as the biosphere-atmosphere exchange of trace gases, momentum and radiative energy. Tropical savannas are a major source of emissions, contributing 38 % of total annual CO2 from biomass burning, 30% CO, 19 % CH4 and 59 % NOx. Climatically, they occur in regions subject to a strongly seasonal ‘wet-dry' regime, usually under monsoonal control from the movement of the inter-tropical convergence zone. In general, rainfall during the prior wet season(s) determines the amount of grass fuel available for burning while the length of the dry season influences fuel moisture content. Rainfall in tropical savannas exhibits high inter-annual variability, and under future climate change, is projected to change significantly in much of Africa, South America and northern Australia. Process-based simulation models of fire-vegetation dynamics and feedbacks are critical for determining the impacts of wildfires under projected future climate change on i) ecosystem structure and function, and ii) emissions of trace gases and aerosols from biomass burning. A new mechanistic global fire model SPITFIRE (SPread and InTensity of FIRE) has been designed to overcome many of the limitations in existing fire models set within Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs). SPITFIRE has been applied in coupled mode globally and southern Africa, both as part of the LPJ DGVM. It has also been driven with MODIS burnt area data applied to sub-Saharan Africa, while coupled to the

  1. Modelling smart energy systems in tropical regions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dominkovic, D. F.; Dobravec, V.; Jiang, Y.

    2018-01-01

    and water desalination sectors. Five different large scale storages were modelled, too. The developed linear optimization model further included endogenous decisions about the share of district versus individual cooling, implementation of energy efficiency solutions and implementation of demand response...... emissions, 15% higher particulate matter emissions and 2% larger primary energy consumption compared to a business-as-usual case....

  2. Interpretation of TOMS Observations of Tropical Tropospheric Ozone with a Global Model and In Situ Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Randall V.; Jacob, Daniel J.; Logan, Jennifer A.; Bey, Isabelle; Yantosca, Robert M.; Staudt, Amanda C.; Fiore, Arlene M.; Duncan, Bryan N.; Liu, Hongyu; Ginoux, Paul

    2004-01-01

    over the tropical Pacific during all seasons. The photochemical effects of mineral dust have only a minor role on the modeled distribution of TTOCs, including over northern Africa, due to multiple competing effects. The photochemical effects of mineral dust globally decease annual mean OH concentrations by 9%. A global lightning NOx source of 6 Tg N yr(sup -1) in the model produces a simulation that is most consistent with TOMS and in situ observations.

  3. Models and simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, M.J.; Sheppard, J.C.; Sullenberger, M.; Woodley, M.D.

    1983-09-01

    On-line mathematical models have been used successfully for computer controlled operation of SPEAR and PEP. The same model control concept is being implemented for the operation of the LINAC and for the Damping Ring, which will be part of the Stanford Linear Collider (SLC). The purpose of this paper is to describe the general relationships between models, simulations and the control system for any machine at SLAC. The work we have done on the development of the empirical model for the Damping Ring will be presented as an example

  4. PSH Transient Simulation Modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Muljadi, Eduard [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2017-12-21

    PSH Transient Simulation Modeling presentation from the WPTO FY14 - FY16 Peer Review. Transient effects are an important consideration when designing a PSH system, yet numerical techniques for hydraulic transient analysis still need improvements for adjustable-speed (AS) reversible pump-turbine applications.

  5. Modeling CCN effects on tropical convection: An statistical perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carrio, G. G.; Cotton, W. R.; Massie, S. T.

    2012-12-01

    This modeling study examines the response of tropical convection to the enhancement of CCN concentrations from a statistical perspective. The sensitivity runs were performed using RAMS version 6.0, covering almost the entire Amazonian Aerosol Characterization Experiment period (AMAZE, wet season of 2008). The main focus of the analysis was the indirect aerosol effects on the probability density functions (PDFs) of various cloud properties. RAMS was configured to work with four two-way interactive nested grids with 42 vertical levels and horizontal grid spacing of 150, 37.5, 7.5, and 1.5 km. Grids 2 and 3 were used to simulate the synoptic and mesoscale environments, while grid 4 was used to resolve deep convection. Comparisons were made using the finest grid with a domain size of 300 X 300km, approximately centered on the city of Manaus (3.1S, 60.01W). The vertical grid was stretched using with 75m spacing at the finest levels to provide better resolution within the first 1.5 km, and the model top extended to approximately 22 km above ground level. RAMS was initialized on February 10 2008 (00:00 UTC), the length of simulations was 32 days, and GSF data were used for initialization and nudging of the coarser-grid boundaries. The control run considered a CCN concentration of 300cm-3 while other several other simulations considered an influx of higher CCN concentrations (up to 1300/cc) . The latter concentration was observed near the end of the AMAZE project period. Both direct and indirect effects of these CCN particles were considered. Model output data (finest grid) every 15 min were used to compute the PDFs for each model level. When increasing aerosol concentrations, significant impacts were simulated for the PDFs of the water contents of various hydrometeors, vertical motions, area with precipitation, latent heat releases, among other quantities. In most cases, they exhibited a peculiar non-monotonic response similar to that seen in two previous studies of ours

  6. Wake modeling and simulation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Gunner Chr.; Madsen Aagaard, Helge; Larsen, Torben J.

    We present a consistent, physically based theory for the wake meandering phenomenon, which we consider of crucial importance for the overall description of wind turbine loadings in wind farms. In its present version the model is confined to single wake situations. The model philosophy does, howev...... methodology has been implemented in the aeroelastic code HAWC2, and example simulations of wake situations, from the small Tjæreborg wind farm, have been performed showing satisfactory agreement between predictions and measurements...

  7. Simulation and Interpretation of the Genesis of Tropical Storm Gert (2005) as Part of the NASA Tropical Cloud Systems and Processes Experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braun, Scott A.; Montgomery, Michael T.; Mallen, Kevin

    2009-01-01

    Several hypotheses have been put forward for the how tropical cyclones (tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic) first develop circulation at the surface, a key event that needs to occur before a storm can begin to draw energy from the warm ocean. One hypothesis suggests that the surface circulation forms from a "top-down" approach in which a storm s rotating circulation begins at middle levels of the atmosphere and builds down to the surface through processes related to light "stratiform" (horizontally extensive) precipitation. Another hypothesis suggests a bottom-up approach in which deep thunderstorm towers (convection) play the major role in spinning up the flow at the surface. These "hot towers" form in the area of the mid-level circulation and strongly concentrate this rotation at low levels within their updrafts. Merger of several of these hot towers then intensifies the surface circulation to the point in which a storm forms. This paper examines computer simulations of Tropical Storm Gert (2005), which formed in the Gulf of Mexico during the National Aeronautics and Space Administration s (NASA) Tropical Cloud Systems and Processes (TCSP) Experiment, to investigate the development of low-level circulation and, in particular, whether stratiform or hot tower processes were responsible for the storm s formation. Data from NASA satellites and from aircraft were used to show that the model did a good job of reproducing the formation and evolution of Gert. The simulation shows that a mix of both stratiform and convective rainfall occurred within Gert. While the stratiform rainfall clearly acted to increase rotation at middle levels, the diverging outflow beneath the stratiform rain worked against spinning up the low-level winds. The hot towers appeared to dominate the low-level flow, producing intense rotation within their cores and often being associated with significant pressure falls at the surface. Over time, many of these hot towers merged, with each

  8. An investigation of tropical Atlantic bias in a high-resolution coupled regional climate model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Patricola, Christina M.; Saravanan, R.; Hsieh, Jen-Shan [Texas A and M University, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, College Station, TX (United States); Li, Mingkui; Xu, Zhao [Texas A and M University, Department of Oceanography, College Station, TX (United States); Ocean University of China, Key Laboratory of Physical Oceanography of Ministry of Education, Qingdao (China); Chang, Ping [Texas A and M University, Department of Oceanography, College Station, TX (United States); Ocean University of China, Key Laboratory of Physical Oceanography of Ministry of Education, Qingdao (China); Second Institute of Oceanography, State Key Laboratory of Satellite Ocean Environment Dynamics, Hangzhou, Zhejiang (China)

    2012-11-15

    Coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) commonly fail to simulate the eastern equatorial Atlantic boreal summer cold tongue and produce a westerly equatorial trade wind bias. This tropical Atlantic bias problem is investigated with a high-resolution (27-km atmosphere represented by the Weather Research and Forecasting Model, 9-km ocean represented by the Regional Ocean Modeling System) coupled regional climate model. Uncoupled atmospheric simulations test climate sensitivity to cumulus, land-surface, planetary boundary layer, microphysics, and radiation parameterizations and reveal that the radiation scheme has a pronounced impact in the tropical Atlantic. The CAM radiation simulates a dry precipitation (up to -90%) and cold land-surface temperature (up to -8 K) bias over the Amazon related to an over-representation of low-level clouds and almost basin-wide westerly trade wind bias. The Rapid Radiative Transfer Model and Goddard radiation simulates doubled Amazon and Congo Basin precipitation rates and a weak eastern Atlantic trade wind bias. Season-long high-resolution coupled regional model experiments indicate that the initiation of the warm eastern equatorial Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) bias is more sensitive to the local rather than basin-wide trade wind bias and to a wet Congo Basin instead of dry Amazon - which differs from AOGCM simulations. Comparisons between coupled and uncoupled simulations suggest a regional Bjerknes feedback confined to the eastern equatorial Atlantic amplifies the initial SST, wind, and deepened thermocline bias, while barrier layer feedbacks are relatively unimportant. The SST bias in some CRCM simulations resembles the typical AOGCM bias indicating that increasing resolution is unlikely a simple solution to this problem. (orig.)

  9. Process-Oriented Diagnostics of Tropical Cyclones in Global Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moon, Y.; Kim, D.; Camargo, S. J.; Wing, A. A.; Sobel, A. H.; Bosilovich, M. G.; Murakami, H.; Reed, K. A.; Vecchi, G. A.; Wehner, M. F.; Zarzycki, C. M.; Zhao, M.

    2017-12-01

    Simulating tropical cyclone (TC) activity with global climate models (GCMs) remains a challenging problem. While some GCMs are able to simulate TC activity that is in good agreement with the observations, many other models exhibit strong biases. Decreasing horizontal grid spacing of the GCM simulations tends to improve the characteristics of simulated TCs, but this enhancement alone does not necessarily lead to greater skill in simulating TC activity. This study uses process-based diagnostics to identify model characteristics that could explain why some GCM simulations are able to produce more realistic TC activity than others. The diagnostics examine how convection, moisture, clouds and related processes are coupled at individual grid points, which yields useful information into how convective parameterizations interact with resolved model dynamics. These diagnostics share similarities with those originally developed to examine the Madden-Julian Oscillations in climate models. This study will examine TCs in eight different GCM simulations performed at NOAA/GFDL, NCAR and NASA that have different horizontal resolutions and ocean coupling. Preliminary results suggest that stronger TCs are closely associated with greater rainfall - thus greater diabatic heating - in the inner-core regions of the storms, which is consistent with previous theoretical studies. Other storm characteristics that can be used to infer why GCM simulations with comparable horizontal grid spacings produce different TC activity will be examined.

  10. Analysis and modeling of tropical convection observed by CYGNSS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lang, T. J.; Li, X.; Roberts, J. B.; Mecikalski, J. R.

    2017-12-01

    The Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) is a multi-satellite constellation that utilizes Global Positioning System (GPS) reflectometry to retrieve near-surface wind speeds over the ocean. While CYGNSS is primarily aimed at measuring wind speeds in tropical cyclones, our research has established that the mission may also provide valuable insight into the relationships between wind-driven surface fluxes and general tropical oceanic convection. Currently, we are examining organized tropical convection using a mixture of CYGNSS level 1 through level 3 data, IMERG (Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement), and other ancillary datasets (including buoys, GPM level 1 and 2 data, as well as ground-based radar). In addition, observing system experiments (OSEs) are being performed using hybrid three-dimensional variational assimilation to ingest CYGNSS observations into a limited-domain, convection-resolving model. Our focus for now is on case studies of convective evolution, but we will also report on progress toward statistical analysis of convection sampled by CYGNSS. Our working hypothesis is that the typical mature phase of organized tropical convection is marked by the development of a sharp gust-front boundary from an originally spatially broader but weaker wind speed change associated with precipitation. This increase in the wind gradient, which we demonstrate is observable by CYGNSS, likely helps to focus enhanced turbulent fluxes of convection-sustaining heat and moisture near the leading edge of the convective system where they are more easily ingested by the updraft. Progress on the testing and refinement of this hypothesis, using a mixture of observations and modeling, will be reported.

  11. Tropical Cyclones in the 7km NASA Global Nature Run for use in Observing System Simulation Experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reale, Oreste; Achuthavarier, Deepthi; Fuentes, Marangelly; Putman, William M.; Partyka, Gary

    2018-01-01

    The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Nature Run (NR), released for use in Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs), is a 2-year long global non-hydrostatic free-running simulation at a horizontal resolution of 7 km, forced by observed sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) and sea ice, and inclusive of interactive aerosols and trace gases. This article evaluates the NR with respect to tropical cyclone (TC) activity. It is emphasized that to serve as a NR, a long-term simulation must be able to produce realistic TCs, which arise out of realistic large-scale forcings. The presence in the NR of the realistic, relevant dynamical features over the African Monsoon region and the tropical Atlantic is confirmed, along with realistic African Easterly Wave activity. The NR Atlantic TC seasons, produced with 2005 and 2006 SSTs, show interannual variability consistent with observations, with much stronger activity in 2005. An investigation of TC activity over all the other basins (eastern and western North Pacific, North and South Indian Ocean, and Australian region), together with relevant elements of the atmospheric circulation, such as, for example, the Somali Jet and westerly bursts, reveals that the model captures the fundamental aspects of TC seasons in every basin, producing realistic number of TCs with realistic tracks, life spans and structures. This confirms that the NASA NR is a very suitable tool for OSSEs targeting TCs and represents an improvement with respect to previous long simulations that have served the global atmospheric OSSE community. PMID:29674806

  12. Tropical convection regimes in climate models: evaluation with satellite observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. K. Steiner

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available High-quality observations are powerful tools for the evaluation of climate models towards improvement and reduction of uncertainty. Particularly at low latitudes, the most uncertain aspect lies in the representation of moist convection and interaction with dynamics, where rising motion is tied to deep convection and sinking motion to dry regimes. Since humidity is closely coupled with temperature feedbacks in the tropical troposphere, a proper representation of this region is essential. Here we demonstrate the evaluation of atmospheric climate models with satellite-based observations from Global Positioning System (GPS radio occultation (RO, which feature high vertical resolution and accuracy in the troposphere to lower stratosphere. We focus on the representation of the vertical atmospheric structure in tropical convection regimes, defined by high updraft velocity over warm surfaces, and investigate atmospheric temperature and humidity profiles. Results reveal that some models do not fully capture convection regions, particularly over land, and only partly represent strong vertical wind classes. Models show large biases in tropical mean temperature of more than 4 K in the tropopause region and the lower stratosphere. Reasonable agreement with observations is given in mean specific humidity in the lower to mid-troposphere. In moist convection regions, models tend to underestimate moisture by 10 to 40 % over oceans, whereas in dry downdraft regions they overestimate moisture by 100 %. Our findings provide evidence that RO observations are a unique source of information, with a range of further atmospheric variables to be exploited, for the evaluation and advancement of next-generation climate models.

  13. Impact of Moist Physics Complexity on Tropical Cyclone Simulations from the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalina, E. A.; Biswas, M.; Newman, K.; Grell, E. D.; Bernardet, L.; Frimel, J.; Carson, L.

    2017-12-01

    The parameterization of moist physics in numerical weather prediction models plays an important role in modulating tropical cyclone structure, intensity, and evolution. The Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast system (HWRF), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's operational model for tropical cyclone prediction, uses the Scale-Aware Simplified Arakawa-Schubert (SASAS) cumulus scheme and a modified version of the Ferrier-Aligo (FA) microphysics scheme to parameterize moist physics. The FA scheme contains a number of simplifications that allow it to run efficiently in an operational setting, which includes prescribing values for hydrometeor number concentrations (i.e., single-moment microphysics) and advecting the total condensate rather than the individual hydrometeor species. To investigate the impact of these simplifying assumptions on the HWRF forecast, the FA scheme was replaced with the more complex double-moment Thompson microphysics scheme, which individually advects cloud ice, cloud water, rain, snow, and graupel. Retrospective HWRF forecasts of tropical cyclones that occurred in the Atlantic and eastern Pacific ocean basins from 2015-2017 were then simulated and compared to those produced by the operational HWRF configuration. Both traditional model verification metrics (i.e., tropical cyclone track and intensity) and process-oriented metrics (e.g., storm size, precipitation structure, and heating rates from the microphysics scheme) will be presented and compared. The sensitivity of these results to the cumulus scheme used (i.e., the operational SASAS versus the Grell-Freitas scheme) also will be examined. Finally, the merits of replacing the moist physics schemes that are used operationally with the alternatives tested here will be discussed from a standpoint of forecast accuracy versus computational resources.

  14. Seamless Modeling for Research & Predictability of Severe Tropical Storms from Weather-to-Climate Timescales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramaswamy, V.; Chen, J. H.; Delworth, T. L.; Knutson, T. R.; Lin, S. J.; Murakami, H.; Vecchi, G. A.

    2017-12-01

    Damages from catastrophic tropical storms such as the 2017 destructive hurricanes compel an acceleration of scientific advancements to understand the genesis, underlying mechanisms, frequency, track, intensity, and landfall of these storms. The advances are crucial to provide improved early information for planners and responders. We discuss the development and utilization of a global modeling capability based on a novel atmospheric dynamical core ("Finite-Volume Cubed Sphere or FV3") which captures the realism of the recent tropical storms and is a part of the NOAA Next-Generation Global Prediction System. This capability is also part of an emerging seamless modeling system at NOAA/ Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory for simulating the frequency of storms on seasonal and longer timescales with high fidelity e.g., Atlantic hurricane frequency over the past decades. In addition, the same modeling system has also been employed to evaluate the nature of projected storms on the multi-decadal scales under the influence of anthropogenic factors such as greenhouse gases and aerosols. The seamless modeling system thus facilitates research into and the predictability of severe tropical storms across diverse timescales of practical interest to several societal sectors.

  15. Understanding the geographic distribution of tropical cyclone formation for applications in climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tory, Kevin J.; Ye, H.; Dare, R. A.

    2018-04-01

    Projections of Tropical cyclone (TC) formation under future climate scenarios are dependent on climate model simulations. However, many models produce unrealistic geographical distributions of TC formation, especially in the north and south Atlantic and eastern south Pacific TC basins. In order to improve confidence in projections it is important to understand the reasons behind these model errors. However, considerable effort is required to analyse the many models used in projection studies. To address this problem, a novel diagnostic is developed that provides compelling insight into why TCs form where they do, using a few summary diagrams. The diagnostic is developed after identifying a relationship between seasonal climatologies of atmospheric variables in 34 years of ECMWF reanalysis data, and TC detection distributions in the same data. Geographic boundaries of TC formation are constructed from four threshold quantities. TCs form where Emanuel's Maximum Potential Intensity, V_{{PI}}, exceeds 40 {ms}^{{ - 1}}, 700 hPa relative humidity, RH_{{700}}, exceeds 40%, and the magnitude of the difference in vector winds between 850 and 200 hPa, V_{{sh}}, is less than 20 {ms}^{{ - 1}}. The equatorial boundary is best defined by a composite quantity containing the ratio of absolute vorticity (η ) to the meridional gradient of absolute vorticity (β ^{*}), rather than η alone. {β ^*} is also identified as a potentially important ingredient for TC genesis indices. A comparison of detected Tropical Depression (TD) and Tropical Storm (TS) climatologies revealed TDs more readily intensify further to TS where {V_{PI}} is elevated and {V_{sh}} is relatively weak. The distributions of each threshold quantity identify the factors that favour and suppress TC formation throughout the tropics in the real world. This information can be used to understand why TC formation is poorly represented in some climate models, and shows potential for understanding anomalous TC formation

  16. The Role of Temporal Evolution in Modeling Atmospheric Emissions from Tropical Fires

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marlier, Miriam E.; Voulgarakis, Apostolos; Shindell, Drew T.; Faluvegi, Gregory S.; Henry, Candise L.; Randerson, James T.

    2014-01-01

    Fire emissions associated with tropical land use change and maintenance influence atmospheric composition, air quality, and climate. In this study, we explore the effects of representing fire emissions at daily versus monthly resolution in a global composition-climate model. We find that simulations of aerosols are impacted more by the temporal resolution of fire emissions than trace gases such as carbon monoxide or ozone. Daily-resolved datasets concentrate emissions from fire events over shorter time periods and allow them to more realistically interact with model meteorology, reducing how often emissions are concurrently released with precipitation events and in turn increasing peak aerosol concentrations. The magnitude of this effect varies across tropical ecosystem types, ranging from smaller changes in modeling the low intensity, frequent burning typical of savanna ecosystems to larger differences when modeling the short-term, intense fires that characterize deforestation events. The utility of modeling fire emissions at a daily resolution also depends on the application, such as modeling exceedances of particulate matter concentrations over air quality guidelines or simulating regional atmospheric heating patterns.

  17. Simulation - modeling - experiment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2004-01-01

    After two workshops held in 2001 on the same topics, and in order to make a status of the advances in the domain of simulation and measurements, the main goals proposed for this workshop are: the presentation of the state-of-the-art of tools, methods and experiments in the domains of interest of the Gedepeon research group, the exchange of information about the possibilities of use of computer codes and facilities, about the understanding of physical and chemical phenomena, and about development and experiment needs. This document gathers 18 presentations (slides) among the 19 given at this workshop and dealing with: the deterministic and stochastic codes in reactor physics (Rimpault G.); MURE: an evolution code coupled with MCNP (Meplan O.); neutronic calculation of future reactors at EdF (Lecarpentier D.); advance status of the MCNP/TRIO-U neutronic/thermal-hydraulics coupling (Nuttin A.); the FLICA4/TRIPOLI4 thermal-hydraulics/neutronics coupling (Aniel S.); methods of disturbances and sensitivity analysis of nuclear data in reactor physics, application to VENUS-2 experimental reactor (Bidaud A.); modeling for the reliability improvement of an ADS accelerator (Biarotte J.L.); residual gas compensation of the space charge of intense beams (Ben Ismail A.); experimental determination and numerical modeling of phase equilibrium diagrams of interest in nuclear applications (Gachon J.C.); modeling of irradiation effects (Barbu A.); elastic limit and irradiation damage in Fe-Cr alloys: simulation and experiment (Pontikis V.); experimental measurements of spallation residues, comparison with Monte-Carlo simulation codes (Fallot M.); the spallation target-reactor coupling (Rimpault G.); tools and data (Grouiller J.P.); models in high energy transport codes: status and perspective (Leray S.); other ways of investigation for spallation (Audoin L.); neutrons and light particles production at intermediate energies (20-200 MeV) with iron, lead and uranium targets (Le Colley F

  18. Tropical troposphere to stratosphere transport of carbon monoxide and long-lived trace species in the Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere (CLaMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Pommrich

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Variations in the mixing ratio of trace gases of tropospheric origin entering the stratosphere in the tropics are of interest for assessing both troposphere to stratosphere transport fluxes in the tropics and the impact of these transport fluxes on the composition of the tropical lower stratosphere. Anomaly patterns of carbon monoxide (CO and long-lived tracers in the lower tropical stratosphere allow conclusions about the rate and the variability of tropical upwelling to be drawn. Here, we present a simplified chemistry scheme for the Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere (CLaMS for the simulation, at comparatively low numerical cost, of CO, ozone, and long-lived trace substances (CH4, N2O, CCl3F (CFC-11, CCl2F2 (CFC-12, and CO2 in the lower tropical stratosphere. For the long-lived trace substances, the boundary conditions at the surface are prescribed based on ground-based measurements in the lowest model level. The boundary condition for CO in the lower troposphere (below about 4 km is deduced from MOPITT measurements. Due to the lack of a specific representation of mixing and convective uplift in the troposphere in this model version, enhanced CO values, in particular those resulting from convective outflow are underestimated. However, in the tropical tropopause layer and the lower tropical stratosphere, there is relatively good agreement of simulated CO with in situ measurements (with the exception of the TROCCINOX campaign, where CO in the simulation is biased low ≈10–15 ppbv. Further, the model results (and therefore also the ERA-Interim winds, on which the transport in the model is based are of sufficient quality to describe large scale anomaly patterns of CO in the lower stratosphere. In particular, the zonally averaged tropical CO anomaly patterns (the so called "tape recorder" patterns simulated by this model version of CLaMS are in good agreement with observations, although the simulations show a too rapid upwelling

  19. North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones: historical simulations and future changes with the new high-resolution Arpege AGCM.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pilon, R.; Chauvin, F.; Palany, P.; Belmadani, A.

    2017-12-01

    A new version of the variable high-resolution Meteo-France Arpege atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) has been developed for tropical cyclones (TC) studies, with a focus on the North Atlantic basin, where the model horizontal resolution is 15 km. Ensemble historical AMIP (Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project)-type simulations (1965-2014) and future projections (2020-2080) under the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario have been produced. TC-like vortices tracking algorithm is used to investigate TC activity and variability. TC frequency, genesis, geographical distribution and intensity are examined. Historical simulations are compared to best-track and reanalysis datasets. Model TC frequency is generally realistic but tends to be too high during the rst decade of the historical simulations. Biases appear to originate from both the tracking algorithm and model climatology. Nevertheless, the model is able to simulate extremely well intense TCs corresponding to category 5 hurricanes in the North Atlantic, where grid resolution is highest. Interaction between developing TCs and vertical wind shear is shown to be contributing factor for TC variability. Future changes in TC activity and properties are also discussed.

  20. Wake modeling and simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Larsen, G.C.; Aagaard Madsen, H.; Larsen, T.J.; Troldborg, N.

    2008-07-15

    We present a consistent, physically based theory for the wake meandering phenomenon, which we consider of crucial importance for the overall description of wind turbine loadings in wind farms. In its present version the model is confined to single wake situations. The model philosophy does, however, have the potential to include also mutual wake interaction phenomenons. The basic conjecture behind the dynamic wake meandering (DWM) model is that wake transportation in the atmospheric boundary layer is driven by the large scale lateral- and vertical turbulence components. Based on this conjecture a stochastic model of the downstream wake meandering is formulated. In addition to the kinematic formulation of the dynamics of the 'meandering frame of reference', models characterizing the mean wake deficit as well as the added wake turbulence, described in the meandering frame of reference, are an integrated part the DWM model complex. For design applications, the computational efficiency of wake deficit prediction is a key issue. A computationally low cost model is developed for this purpose. Likewise, the character of the added wake turbulence, generated by the up-stream turbine in the form of shed and trailed vorticity, has been approached by a simple semi-empirical model essentially based on an eddy viscosity philosophy. Contrary to previous attempts to model wake loading, the DWM approach opens for a unifying description in the sense that turbine power- and load aspects can be treated simultaneously. This capability is a direct and attractive consequence of the model being based on the underlying physical process, and it potentially opens for optimization of wind farm topology, of wind farm operation as well as of control strategies for the individual turbine. To establish an integrated modeling tool, the DWM methodology has been implemented in the aeroelastic code HAWC2, and example simulations of wake situations, from the small Tjaereborg wind farm, have

  1. Simulated birdwatchers' playback affects the behavior of two tropical birds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, J Berton C; Haskell, David G

    2013-01-01

    Although recreational birdwatchers may benefit conservation by generating interest in birds, they may also have negative effects. One such potentially negative impact is the widespread use of recorded vocalizations, or "playback," to attract birds of interest, including range-restricted and threatened species. Although playback has been widely used to test hypotheses about the evolution of behavior, no peer-reviewed study has examined the impacts of playback in a birdwatching context on avian behavior. We studied the effects of simulated birdwatchers' playback on the vocal behavior of Plain-tailed Wrens Thryothorus euophrys and Rufous Antpittas Grallaria rufula in Ecuador. Study species' vocal behavior was monitored for an hour after playing either a single bout of five minutes of song or a control treatment of background noise. We also studied the effects of daily five minute playback on five groups of wrens over 20 days. In single bout experiments, antpittas made more vocalizations of all types, except for trills, after playback compared to controls. Wrens sang more duets after playback, but did not produce more contact calls. In repeated playback experiments, wren responses were strong at first, but hardly detectable by day 12. During the study, one study group built a nest, apparently unperturbed, near a playback site. The playback-induced habituation and changes in vocal behavior we observed suggest that scientists should consider birdwatching activity when selecting research sites so that results are not biased by birdwatchers' playback. Increased vocalizations after playback could be interpreted as a negative effect of playback if birds expend energy, become stressed, or divert time from other activities. In contrast, the habituation we documented suggests that frequent, regular birdwatchers' playback may have minor effects on wren behavior.

  2. Biomolecular modelling and simulations

    CERN Document Server

    Karabencheva-Christova, Tatyana

    2014-01-01

    Published continuously since 1944, the Advances in Protein Chemistry and Structural Biology series is the essential resource for protein chemists. Each volume brings forth new information about protocols and analysis of proteins. Each thematically organized volume is guest edited by leading experts in a broad range of protein-related topics. Describes advances in biomolecular modelling and simulations Chapters are written by authorities in their field Targeted to a wide audience of researchers, specialists, and students The information provided in the volume is well supported by a number of high quality illustrations, figures, and tables.

  3. Relationships between convective asymmetry, imbalance and intensity in numerically simulated tropical cyclones

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David A. Schecter

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available This article examines the relationships between convective asymmetry (CA, imbalance and intensity in tropical cyclones (TCs that emerge from random winds on the periodic f-plane in a cloud-system-resolving numerical model. The model is configured with warm-rain microphysics and includes a basic parameterisation of long-wave radiation. Within the simulation set, the sea-surface temperature ranges from 26 to 32°C, and the Coriolis parameter f ranges from 10−5 to 10−4 s−1. The number of TCs that develop in a simulation increases rapidly with f and ranges from 1 to 18. Taken together, the simulations provide a diverse spectrum of vortices that can be used for a meaningful statistical study.Consistent with earlier studies, mature TCs with minimal asymmetry are found to have maximum wind speeds greater than the classic theoretical value derived by Emanuel under the assumptions of gradient-wind and hydrostatic balance. In a statistical sense, it is found that the degree of superintensity with respect to balance theory reliably decays with an increasing level of inner-core CA. It is verified that a more recent version of axisymmetric steady-state theory, revised to incorporate imbalance, provides a good approximation for the maximum (azimuthally averaged azimuthal wind speed V max when CA is relatively weak. More notably, this theory for axisymmetric vortices maintains less than 10% error as CA becomes comparable in magnitude to the symmetric component of inner-core convection. Above a large but finite threshold of CA, axisymmetric steady-state theory generally over-predicts V max. The underachievement of TCs in this parameter regime is shown to coincide with substantial violation of the theoretical assumption of slantwise convective neutrality in the main updraft of the basic state. Of further interest, a reliable curve-fit is obtained for the anticorrelation between a simple measure of CA and V max normalised to an estimate of its balanced

  4. Impact of chlorophyll bias on the tropical Pacific mean climate in an earth system model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, Hyung-Gyu; Park, Jong-Yeon; Kug, Jong-Seong

    2017-12-01

    Climate modeling groups nowadays develop earth system models (ESMs) by incorporating biogeochemical processes in their climate models. The ESMs, however, often show substantial bias in simulated marine biogeochemistry which can potentially introduce an undesirable bias in physical ocean fields through biogeophysical interactions. This study examines how and how much the chlorophyll bias in a state-of-the-art ESM affects the mean and seasonal cycle of tropical Pacific sea-surface temperature (SST). The ESM used in the present study shows a sizeable positive bias in the simulated tropical chlorophyll. We found that the correction of the chlorophyll bias can reduce the ESM's intrinsic cold SST mean bias in the equatorial Pacific. The biologically-induced cold SST bias is strongly affected by seasonally-dependent air-sea coupling strength. In addition, the correction of chlorophyll bias can improve the annual cycle of SST by up to 25%. This result suggests a possible modeling approach in understanding the two-way interactions between physical and chlorophyll biases by biogeophysical effects.

  5. Constrained parameterisation of photosynthetic capacity causes significant increase of modelled tropical vegetation surface temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kattge, J.; Knorr, W.; Raddatz, T.; Wirth, C.

    2009-04-01

    Photosynthetic capacity is one of the most sensitive parameters of terrestrial biosphere models whose representation in global scale simulations has been severely hampered by a lack of systematic analyses using a sufficiently broad database. Due to its coupling to stomatal conductance changes in the parameterisation of photosynthetic capacity may potentially influence transpiration rates and vegetation surface temperature. Here, we provide a constrained parameterisation of photosynthetic capacity for different plant functional types in the context of the photosynthesis model proposed by Farquhar et al. (1980), based on a comprehensive compilation of leaf photosynthesis rates and leaf nitrogen content. Mean values of photosynthetic capacity were implemented into the coupled climate-vegetation model ECHAM5/JSBACH and modelled gross primary production (GPP) is compared to a compilation of independent observations on stand scale. Compared to the current standard parameterisation the root-mean-squared difference between modelled and observed GPP is substantially reduced for almost all PFTs by the new parameterisation of photosynthetic capacity. We find a systematic depression of NUE (photosynthetic capacity divided by leaf nitrogen content) on certain tropical soils that are known to be deficient in phosphorus. Photosynthetic capacity of tropical trees derived by this study is substantially lower than standard estimates currently used in terrestrial biosphere models. This causes a decrease of modelled GPP while it significantly increases modelled tropical vegetation surface temperatures, up to 0.8°C. These results emphasise the importance of a constrained parameterisation of photosynthetic capacity not only for the carbon cycle, but also for the climate system.

  6. Constraining the models' response of tropical low clouds to SST forcings using CALIPSO observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cesana, G.; Del Genio, A. D.; Ackerman, A. S.; Brient, F.; Fridlind, A. M.; Kelley, M.; Elsaesser, G.

    2017-12-01

    Low-cloud response to a warmer climate is still pointed out as being the largest source of uncertainty in the last generation of climate models. To date there is no consensus among the models on whether the tropical low cloudiness would increase or decrease in a warmer climate. In addition, it has been shown that - depending on their climate sensitivity - the models either predict deeper or shallower low clouds. Recently, several relationships between inter-model characteristics of the present-day climate and future climate changes have been highlighted. These so-called emergent constraints aim to target relevant model improvements and to constrain models' projections based on current climate observations. Here we propose to use - for the first time - 10 years of CALIPSO cloud statistics to assess the ability of the models to represent the vertical structure of tropical low clouds for abnormally warm SST. We use a simulator approach to compare observations and simulations and focus on the low-layered clouds (i.e. z fraction. Vertically, the clouds deepen namely by decreasing the cloud fraction in the lowest levels and increasing it around the top of the boundary-layer. This feature is coincident with an increase of the high-level cloud fraction (z > 6.5km). Although the models' spread is large, the multi-model mean captures the observed variations but with a smaller amplitude. We then employ the GISS model to investigate how changes in cloud parameterizations affect the response of low clouds to warmer SSTs on the one hand; and how they affect the variations of the model's cloud profiles with respect to environmental parameters on the other hand. Finally, we use CALIPSO observations to constrain the model by determining i) what set of parameters allows reproducing the observed relationships and ii) what are the consequences on the cloud feedbacks. These results point toward process-oriented constraints of low-cloud responses to surface warming and environmental

  7. Rainfall and Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones: Simulation, Prediction, and Projection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Maofeng

    Rainfall and associated flood hazards are one of the major threats of tropical cyclones (TCs) to coastal and inland regions. The interaction of TCs with extratropical systems can lead to enhanced precipitation over enlarged areas through extratropical transition (ET). To achieve a comprehensive understanding of rainfall and ET associated with TCs, this thesis conducts weather-scale analyses by focusing on individual storms and climate-scale analyses by focusing on seasonal predictability and changing properties of climatology under global warming. The temporal and spatial rainfall evolution of individual storms, including Hurricane Irene (2011), Hurricane Hanna (2008), and Hurricane Sandy (2012), is explored using the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model and a variety of hydrometeorological datasets. ET and Orographic mechanism are two key players in the rainfall distribution of Irene over regions experiencing most severe flooding. The change of TC rainfall under global warming is explored with the Forecast-oriented Low Ocean Resolution (FLOR) climate model under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenario. Despite decreased TC frequency, FLOR projects increased landfalling TC rainfall over most regions of eastern United States, highlighting the risk of increased flood hazards. Increased storm rain rate is an important player of increased landfalling TC rainfall. A higher atmospheric resolution version of FLOR (HiFLOR) model projects increased TC rainfall at global scales. The increase of TC intensity and environmental water vapor content scaled by the Clausius-Clapeyron relation are two key factors that explain the projected increase of TC rainfall. Analyses on the simulation, prediction, and projection of the ET activity with FLOR are conducted in the North Atlantic. FLOR model exhibits good skills in simulating many aspects of present-day ET climatology. The 21st-century-projection under RCP4.5 scenario demonstrates the dominant role of ET

  8. Technical Note: Approximate Bayesian parameterization of a complex tropical forest model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartig, F.; Dislich, C.; Wiegand, T.; Huth, A.

    2013-08-01

    Inverse parameter estimation of process-based models is a long-standing problem in ecology and evolution. A key problem of inverse parameter estimation is to define a metric that quantifies how well model predictions fit to the data. Such a metric can be expressed by general cost or objective functions, but statistical inversion approaches are based on a particular metric, the probability of observing the data given the model, known as the likelihood. Deriving likelihoods for dynamic models requires making assumptions about the probability for observations to deviate from mean model predictions. For technical reasons, these assumptions are usually derived without explicit consideration of the processes in the simulation. Only in recent years have new methods become available that allow generating likelihoods directly from stochastic simulations. Previous applications of these approximate Bayesian methods have concentrated on relatively simple models. Here, we report on the application of a simulation-based likelihood approximation for FORMIND, a parameter-rich individual-based model of tropical forest dynamics. We show that approximate Bayesian inference, based on a parametric likelihood approximation placed in a conventional MCMC, performs well in retrieving known parameter values from virtual field data generated by the forest model. We analyze the results of the parameter estimation, examine the sensitivity towards the choice and aggregation of model outputs and observed data (summary statistics), and show results from using this method to fit the FORMIND model to field data from an Ecuadorian tropical forest. Finally, we discuss differences of this approach to Approximate Bayesian Computing (ABC), another commonly used method to generate simulation-based likelihood approximations. Our results demonstrate that simulation-based inference, which offers considerable conceptual advantages over more traditional methods for inverse parameter estimation, can

  9. From leaf longevity to canopy seasonality: a carbon optimality phenology model for tropical evergreen forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, X.; Medvigy, D.; Wu, J.; Wright, S. J.; Kitajima, K.; Pacala, S. W.

    2016-12-01

    Tropical evergreen forests play a key role in the global carbon, water and energy cycles. Despite apparent evergreenness, this biome shows strong seasonality in leaf litter and photosynthesis. Recent studies have suggested that this seasonality is not directly related to environmental variability but is dominated by seasonal changes of leaf development and senescence. Meanwhile, current terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) can not capture this pattern because leaf life cycle is highly underrepresented. One challenge to model this leaf life cycle is the remarkable diversity in leaf longevity, ranging from several weeks to multiple years. Ecologists have proposed models where leaf longevity is regarded as a strategy to optimize carbon gain. However previous optimality models can not be readily integrated into TBMs because (i) there are still large biases in predicted leaf longevity and (ii) it is never tested whether the carbon optimality model can capture the observed seasonality in leaf demography and canopy photosynthesis. In this study, we develop a new carbon optimality model for leaf demography. The novelty of our approach is two-fold. First, we incorporate a mechanistic photosynthesis model that can better estimate leaf carbon gain. Second, we consider the interspecific variations in leaf senescence rate, which strongly influence the modelled optimal carbon gain. We test our model with a leaf trait database for Panamanian evergreen forests. Then, we apply the model at seasonal scale and compare simulated seasonality of leaf litter and canopy photosynthesis with in-situ observations from several Amazonian forest sites. We find that (i) compared with original optimality model, the regression slope between observed and predicted leaf longevity increases from 0.15 to 1.04 in our new model and (ii) that our new model can capture the observed seasonal variations of leaf demography and canopy photosynthesis. Our results suggest that the phenology in tropical evergreen

  10. Impact of global warming on tropical cyclone genesis in coupled and forced simulations: role of SST spatial anomalies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Royer, Jean-François; Chauvin, Fabrice; Daloz, Anne-Sophie

    2010-05-01

    The response of tropical cyclones (TC) activity to global warming has not yet reached a clear consensus in the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007) or in the recent scientific literature. Observed series are neither long nor reliable enough for a statistically significant detection and attribution of past TC trends, and coupled climate models give widely divergent results for the future evolution of TC activity in the different ocean basins. The potential importance of the spatial structure of the future SST warming has been pointed out by Chauvin et al. (2006) in simulations performed at CNRM with the ARPEGE-Climat GCM. The current presentation describes a new set of simulations that have been performed with the ARPEGE-Climat model to try to understand the possible role of SST patterns in the TC cyclogenesis response in 15 CMIP3 coupled simulations analysed by Royer et al (2009). The new simulations have been performed with the atmospheric component of the ARPEGE-Climat GCM forced in 10 year simulations by the SST patterns from each of 15 CMIP3 simulations with different climate model at the end of the 21st century according to scenario A2. The TC analysis is based on the computation of a Convective Yearly Genesis Parameter (CYGP) and the Genesis Potential Index (GPI). The computed genesis indices for each of the ARPEGE-Climat forced simulations is compared with the indices computed directly from the initial coupled simulation. The influence of SST patterns can then be more easily assessed since all the ARPEGE-Climat simulations are performed with the same atmospheric model, whereas the original simulations used models with different parameterization and resolutions. The analysis shows that CYGP or GPI anomalies obtained with ARPEGE are as variable between each other as those obtained originally by the different IPCC models. The variety of SST patterns used to force ARPEGE explains a large part of

  11. Environmental Modeling, Technology, and Communication for Land Falling Tropical Cyclone/Hurricane Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul Tchounwou

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Katrina (a tropical cyclone/hurricane began to strengthen reaching a Category 5 storm on 28th August, 2005 and its winds reached peak intensity of 175 mph and pressure levels as low as 902 mb. Katrina eventually weakened to a category 3 storm and made a landfall in Plaquemines Parish, Louisiana, Gulf of Mexico, south of Buras on 29th August 2005. We investigate the time series intensity change of the hurricane Katrina using environmental modeling and technology tools to develop an early and advanced warning and prediction system. Environmental Mesoscale Model (Weather Research Forecast, WRF simulations are used for prediction of intensity change and track of the hurricane Katrina. The model is run on a doubly nested domain centered over the central Gulf of Mexico, with grid spacing of 90 km and 30 km for 6 h periods, from August 28th to August 30th. The model results are in good agreement with the observations suggesting that the model is capable of simulating the surface features, intensity change and track and precipitation associated with hurricane Katrina. We computed the maximum vertical velocities (Wmax using Convective Available Kinetic Energy (CAPE obtained at the equilibrium level (EL, from atmospheric soundings over the Gulf Coast stations during the hurricane land falling for the period August 21–30, 2005. The large vertical atmospheric motions associated with the land falling hurricane Katrina produced severe weather including thunderstorms and tornadoes 2–3 days before landfall. The environmental modeling simulations in combination with sounding data show that the tools may be used as an advanced prediction and communication system (APCS for land falling tropical cyclones/hurricanes.

  12. Technical Note: Approximate Bayesian parameterization of a process-based tropical forest model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartig, F.; Dislich, C.; Wiegand, T.; Huth, A.

    2014-02-01

    Inverse parameter estimation of process-based models is a long-standing problem in many scientific disciplines. A key question for inverse parameter estimation is how to define the metric that quantifies how well model predictions fit to the data. This metric can be expressed by general cost or objective functions, but statistical inversion methods require a particular metric, the probability of observing the data given the model parameters, known as the likelihood. For technical and computational reasons, likelihoods for process-based stochastic models are usually based on general assumptions about variability in the observed data, and not on the stochasticity generated by the model. Only in recent years have new methods become available that allow the generation of likelihoods directly from stochastic simulations. Previous applications of these approximate Bayesian methods have concentrated on relatively simple models. Here, we report on the application of a simulation-based likelihood approximation for FORMIND, a parameter-rich individual-based model of tropical forest dynamics. We show that approximate Bayesian inference, based on a parametric likelihood approximation placed in a conventional Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampler, performs well in retrieving known parameter values from virtual inventory data generated by the forest model. We analyze the results of the parameter estimation, examine its sensitivity to the choice and aggregation of model outputs and observed data (summary statistics), and demonstrate the application of this method by fitting the FORMIND model to field data from an Ecuadorian tropical forest. Finally, we discuss how this approach differs from approximate Bayesian computation (ABC), another method commonly used to generate simulation-based likelihood approximations. Our results demonstrate that simulation-based inference, which offers considerable conceptual advantages over more traditional methods for inverse parameter estimation

  13. Notes on modeling and simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Redondo, Antonio [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2017-03-10

    These notes present a high-level overview of how modeling and simulation are carried out by practitioners. The discussion is of a general nature; no specific techniques are examined but the activities associated with all modeling and simulation approaches are briefly addressed. There is also a discussion of validation and verification and, at the end, a section on why modeling and simulation are useful.

  14. Environmental determinants of tropical forest and savanna distribution: A quantitative model evaluation and its implication

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeng, Zhenzhong; Chen, Anping; Piao, Shilong; Rabin, Sam; Shen, Zehao

    2014-07-01

    The distributions of tropical ecosystems are rapidly being altered by climate change and anthropogenic activities. One possible trend—the loss of tropical forests and replacement by savannas—could result in significant shifts in ecosystem services and biodiversity loss. However, the influence and the relative importance of environmental factors in regulating the distribution of tropical forest and savanna biomes are still poorly understood, which makes it difficult to predict future tropical forest and savanna distributions in the context of climate change. Here we use boosted regression trees to quantitatively evaluate the importance of environmental predictors—mainly climatic, edaphic, and fire factors—for the tropical forest-savanna distribution at a mesoscale across the tropics (between 15°N and 35°S). Our results demonstrate that climate alone can explain most of the distribution of tropical forest and savanna at the scale considered; dry season average precipitation is the single most important determinant across tropical Asia-Australia, Africa, and South America. Given the strong tendency of increased seasonality and decreased dry season precipitation predicted by global climate models, we estimate that about 28% of what is now tropical forest would likely be lost to savanna by the late 21st century under the future scenario considered. This study highlights the importance of climate seasonality and interannual variability in predicting the distribution of tropical forest and savanna, supporting the climate as the primary driver in the savanna biogeography.

  15. Potential use of a regional climate model in seasonal tropical cyclone activity predictions in the western North Pacific

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Au-Yeung, Andie Y.M.; Chan, Johnny C.L. [City University of Hong Kong, Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre, School of Energy and Environment, Kowloon, Hong Kong (China)

    2012-08-15

    This study investigates the potential use of a regional climate model in forecasting seasonal tropical cyclone (TC) activity. A modified version of Regional Climate Model Version 3 (RegCM3) is used to examine the ability of the model to simulate TC genesis and landfalling TC tracks for the active TC season in the western North Pacific. In the model, a TC is identified as a vortex satisfying several conditions, including local maximum relative vorticity at 850 hPa with a value {>=}450 x 10{sup -6} s{sup -1}, and the temperature at 300 hPa being 1 C higher than the average temperature within 15 latitude radius from the TC center. Tracks are traced by following these found vortices. Six-month ensemble (8 members each) simulations are performed for each year from 1982 to 2001 so that the climatology of the model can be compared to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) observed best-track dataset. The 20-year ensemble experiments show that the RegCM3 can be used to simulate vortices with a wind structure and temperature profile similar to those of real TCs. The model also reproduces tracks very similar to those observed with features like genesis in the tropics, recurvature at higher latitudes and landfall/decay. The similarity of the 500-hPa geopotential height patterns between RegCM3 and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts 40 Year Re-analysis (ERA-40) shows that the model can simulate the subtropical high to a large extent. The simulated climatological monthly spatial distributions as well as the interannual variability of TC occurrence are also similar to the JTWC data. These results imply the possibility of producing seasonal forecasts of tropical cyclones using real-time global climate model predictions as boundary conditions for the RegCM3. (orig.)

  16. Simulated sensitivity of the tropical cyclone eyewall replacement cycle to the ambient temperature profile

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Xulin; He, Jie; Ge, Xuyang

    2017-09-01

    In this study, the impacts of the environmental temperature profile on the tropical cyclone eyewall replacement cycle are examined using idealized numerical simulations. It is found that the environmental thermal condition can greatly affect the formation and structure of a secondary eyewall and the intensity change during the eyewall replacement cycle. Simulation with a warmer thermal profile produces a larger moat and a prolonged eyewall replacement cycle. It is revealed that the enhanced static stability greatly suppresses convection, and thus causes slow secondary eyewall formation. The possible processes influencing the decay of inner eyewall convection are investigated. It is revealed that the demise of the inner eyewall is related to a choking effect associated with outer eyewall convection, the radial distribution of moist entropy fluxes within the moat region, the enhanced static stability in the inner-core region, and the interaction between the inner and outer eyewalls due to the barotropic instability. This study motivates further research into how environmental conditions influence tropical cyclone dynamics and thermodynamics.

  17. Analysis of the environments of seven Mediterranean tropical-like storms using an axisymmetric, nonhydrostatic, cloud resolving model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Fita

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Tropical-like storms on the Mediterranean Sea are occasionally observed on satellite images, often with a clear eye surrounded by an axysimmetric cloud structure. These storms sometimes attain hurricane intensity and can severely affect coastal lands. A deep, cut-off, cold-core low is usually observed at mid-upper tropospheric levels in association with the development of these tropical-like systems. In this study we attempt to apply some tools previously used in studies of tropical hurricanes to characterise the environments in which seven known Mediterranean events developed. In particular, an axisymmetric, nonhydrostatic, cloud resolving model is applied to simulate the tropical-like storm genesis and evolution. Results are compared to surface observations when landfall occurred and with satellite microwave derived wind speed measurements over the sea. Finally, sensitivities of the numerical simulations to different factors (e.g. sea surface temperature, vertical humidity profile and size of the initial precursor of the storm are examined.

  18. Simulation Model of a Transient

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jauch, Clemens; Sørensen, Poul; Bak-Jensen, Birgitte

    2005-01-01

    This paper describes the simulation model of a controller that enables an active-stall wind turbine to ride through transient faults. The simulated wind turbine is connected to a simple model of a power system. Certain fault scenarios are specified and the turbine shall be able to sustain operati...

  19. Cognitive models embedded in system simulation models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Siegel, A.I.; Wolf, J.J.

    1982-01-01

    If we are to discuss and consider cognitive models, we must first come to grips with two questions: (1) What is cognition; (2) What is a model. Presumably, the answers to these questions can provide a basis for defining a cognitive model. Accordingly, this paper first places these two questions into perspective. Then, cognitive models are set within the context of computer simulation models and a number of computer simulations of cognitive processes are described. Finally, pervasive issues are discussed vis-a-vis cognitive modeling in the computer simulation context

  20. CFD modeling of airflow for indoor comfort in the tropics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aynsley, R.; Su, B.

    2006-01-01

    In humid tropical environments air movement is a common means to achieving indoor thermal comfort. In many locations closer to the equator, breezes are weaker and less reliable. Whatever the source of air movement it is important to quantity its potential in terms of the percentage of time the air movement will be available and the likely speed of the air movement in occupied zone of a building. It is also important to establish appropriate thermal comfort criteria with respect to air temperature, humidity and air movement. There are a number of techniques for modeling air movement inside naturally ventilated buildings. Boundary layer wind tunnels provide an opportunity to both measure and visually observe such airflow through model building. It is important to model adjacent buildings and any significant landscaping features that will influence outdoor airflow patterns. Such studies are relatively expensive. The recent availability of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) software for personal computers offers an alternative method for modeling air movement inside naturally ventilated buildings. Very expensive versions of this software have been available for large computers and work stations for many years but they have only recently become available for smaller computers. There are some features of such software that should be compared before purchasing a copy or a license. This paper discusses such features in detail. It is important in the case of natural ventilation that adjacent buildings and any significant landscaping features that will influence outdoor airflow patterns are included in the modeling. This paper also stresses the importance of calibrating the CFD software output against some physical measurements or wind tunnel modeling to ensure that the CFD results are realistic

  1. General introduction to simulation models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hisham Beshara Halasa, Tariq; Boklund, Anette

    2012-01-01

    trials. However, if simulation models would be used, good quality input data must be available. To model FMD, several disease spread models are available. For this project, we chose three simulation model; Davis Animal Disease Spread (DADS), that has been upgraded to DTU-DADS, InterSpread Plus (ISP......Monte Carlo simulation can be defined as a representation of real life systems to gain insight into their functions and to investigate the effects of alternative conditions or actions on the modeled system. Models are a simplification of a system. Most often, it is best to use experiments and field...... trials to investigate the effect of alternative conditions or actions on a specific system. Nonetheless, field trials are expensive and sometimes not possible to conduct, as in case of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD). Instead, simulation models can be a good and cheap substitute for experiments and field...

  2. Simulation - modeling - experiment; Simulation - modelisation - experience

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2004-07-01

    After two workshops held in 2001 on the same topics, and in order to make a status of the advances in the domain of simulation and measurements, the main goals proposed for this workshop are: the presentation of the state-of-the-art of tools, methods and experiments in the domains of interest of the Gedepeon research group, the exchange of information about the possibilities of use of computer codes and facilities, about the understanding of physical and chemical phenomena, and about development and experiment needs. This document gathers 18 presentations (slides) among the 19 given at this workshop and dealing with: the deterministic and stochastic codes in reactor physics (Rimpault G.); MURE: an evolution code coupled with MCNP (Meplan O.); neutronic calculation of future reactors at EdF (Lecarpentier D.); advance status of the MCNP/TRIO-U neutronic/thermal-hydraulics coupling (Nuttin A.); the FLICA4/TRIPOLI4 thermal-hydraulics/neutronics coupling (Aniel S.); methods of disturbances and sensitivity analysis of nuclear data in reactor physics, application to VENUS-2 experimental reactor (Bidaud A.); modeling for the reliability improvement of an ADS accelerator (Biarotte J.L.); residual gas compensation of the space charge of intense beams (Ben Ismail A.); experimental determination and numerical modeling of phase equilibrium diagrams of interest in nuclear applications (Gachon J.C.); modeling of irradiation effects (Barbu A.); elastic limit and irradiation damage in Fe-Cr alloys: simulation and experiment (Pontikis V.); experimental measurements of spallation residues, comparison with Monte-Carlo simulation codes (Fallot M.); the spallation target-reactor coupling (Rimpault G.); tools and data (Grouiller J.P.); models in high energy transport codes: status and perspective (Leray S.); other ways of investigation for spallation (Audoin L.); neutrons and light particles production at intermediate energies (20-200 MeV) with iron, lead and uranium targets (Le Colley F

  3. Geophysical and botanical monitoring of simulated graves in a tropical rainforest, Colombia, South America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molina, Carlos Martin; Pringle, Jamie K.; Saumett, Miguel; Evans, Gethin T.

    2016-12-01

    In most Latin American countries there are significant numbers of missing people and forced disappearances, currently 80,000 only in Colombia. Successful detection of shallow buried human remains by forensic search teams is currently difficult in varying terrain and climates. Within this research we built four simulated clandestine burial styles in tropical rainforests, as this is a common scenario and depositional environment encountered in Latin America, to gain knowledge of optimum forensic geophysics detection techniques. The results of geophysically monitoring these burials using ground penetrating radar, magnetic susceptibility, bulk ground conductivity and electrical resistivity are presented from one to forty three weeks post-burial. Radar survey results with both the 250 MHz and 500 MHz frequency antennae showed good detection of modern simulated burials on 2D profiles and horizontal time slices but poor detection on the other simulated graves. Magnetic susceptibility, bulk ground conductivity and electrical resistivity results were generally poor at detecting the simulated targets. Observations of botanical variations on the test site show rapid regrowth of Malvaceae and Petiveria alliacea vegetation over all burials that are common in these forests, which can make detection more difficult.

  4. The carbon fluxes in different successional stages: modelling the dynamics of tropical montane forests in South Ecuador

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sebastian Paulick

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Background Tropical forests play an important role in the global carbon (C cycle. However, tropical montane forests have been studied less than tropical lowland forests, and their role in carbon storage is not well understood. Montane forests are highly endangered due to logging, land-use and climate change. Our objective was to analyse how the carbon balance changes during forest succession. Methods In this study, we used a method to estimate local carbon balances that combined forest inventory data with process-based forest models. We utilised such a forest model to study the carbon balance of a tropical montane forest in South Ecuador, comparing two topographical slope positions (ravines and lower slopes vs upper slopes and ridges. Results The simulation results showed that the forest acts as a carbon sink with a maximum net ecosystem exchange (NEE of 9.3 Mg C∙(ha∙yr−1 during its early successional stage (0–100 years. In the late successional stage, the simulated NEE fluctuated around zero and had a variation of 0.77 Mg C∙(ha∙yr –1. The simulated variability of the NEE was within the range of the field data. We discovered several forest attributes (e.g., basal area or the relative amount of pioneer trees that can serve as predictors for NEE for young forest stands (0–100 years but not for those in the late successional stage (500–1,000 years. In case of young forest stands these correlations are high, especially between stand basal area and NEE. Conclusion In this study, we used an Ecuadorian study site as an example of how to successfully link a forest model with forest inventory data, for estimating stem-diameter distributions, biomass and aboveground net primary productivity. To conclude, this study shows that process-based forest models can be used to investigate the carbon balance of tropical montane forests. With this model it is possible to find hidden relationships between forest attributes and forest carbon fluxes

  5. Reviews and syntheses: Field data to benchmark the carbon cycle models for tropical forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, Deborah A.; Asao, Shinichi; Fisher, Rosie; Reed, Sasha; Reich, Peter B.; Ryan, Michael G.; Wood, Tana E.; Yang, Xiaojuan

    2017-10-01

    For more accurate projections of both the global carbon (C) cycle and the changing climate, a critical current need is to improve the representation of tropical forests in Earth system models. Tropical forests exchange more C, energy, and water with the atmosphere than any other class of land ecosystems. Further, tropical-forest C cycling is likely responding to the rapid global warming, intensifying water stress, and increasing atmospheric CO2 levels. Projections of the future C balance of the tropics vary widely among global models. A current effort of the modeling community, the ILAMB (International Land Model Benchmarking) project, is to compile robust observations that can be used to improve the accuracy and realism of the land models for all major biomes. Our goal with this paper is to identify field observations of tropical-forest ecosystem C stocks and fluxes, and of their long-term trends and climatic and CO2 sensitivities, that can serve this effort. We propose criteria for reference-level field data from this biome and present a set of documented examples from old-growth lowland tropical forests. We offer these as a starting point towards the goal of a regularly updated consensus set of benchmark field observations of C cycling in tropical forests.

  6. Effects of assimilating precipitation zones derived from satellite and lightning data on numerical simulations of tropical-like Mediterranean storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fita, L.; Romero, R.; Luque, A.; Ramis, C.

    2009-08-01

    The scarcity of meteorological observations in maritime areas is a well-known problem that can be an important limitation in the study of different phenomena. Tropical-like storms or medicanes developed over the Mediterranean sea are intense storms with some similarities to the tropical ones. Although they do not reach the hurricane intensity, their potential for damage is very high, due to the densely populated Mediterranean coastal regions. In this study, the two notable cases of medicane development which occurred in the western Mediterranean basin in September 1996 and October 2003, are considered. The capability of mesoscale numerical models to simulate general aspects of such a phenomena has been previously shown. With the aim of improving the numerical results, an adjustment of the humidity vertical profiles in MM5 simulations is performed by means of satellite derived precipitation. Convective and stratiform precipitation types obtained from satellite images are used to individually adjust the profiles. Lightning hits are employed to identify convective grid points. The adjustment of the vertical humidity profiles is carried out in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analyses used as initial conditions for the simulations. Analyses nudging to ECMWF analyses and to the satellite-based humidity-corrected version of these analyses has also been applied using Four Dimensional Data Assimilation (FDDA). An additional adjustment is applied as observation nudging of satellite/lightning information at different time and spatial resolutions. Statistical parameters are proposed and tested as an objective way to intercompare satellite-derived and simulated trajectories. Simulations of medicanes exhibit a strong sensitivity to vertical humidity profiles. Trajectories of the storms are improved or worsened by using FDDA. A case dependence is obtained on the characteristics of the humidity-corrected medicanes. FDDA sensitivity on temporal and

  7. Effects of assimilating precipitation zones derived from satellite and lightning data on numerical simulations of tropical-like Mediterranean storms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Fita

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available The scarcity of meteorological observations in maritime areas is a well-known problem that can be an important limitation in the study of different phenomena. Tropical-like storms or medicanes developed over the Mediterranean sea are intense storms with some similarities to the tropical ones. Although they do not reach the hurricane intensity, their potential for damage is very high, due to the densely populated Mediterranean coastal regions. In this study, the two notable cases of medicane development which occurred in the western Mediterranean basin in September 1996 and October 2003, are considered. The capability of mesoscale numerical models to simulate general aspects of such a phenomena has been previously shown. With the aim of improving the numerical results, an adjustment of the humidity vertical profiles in MM5 simulations is performed by means of satellite derived precipitation. Convective and stratiform precipitation types obtained from satellite images are used to individually adjust the profiles. Lightning hits are employed to identify convective grid points. The adjustment of the vertical humidity profiles is carried out in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF analyses used as initial conditions for the simulations. Analyses nudging to ECMWF analyses and to the satellite-based humidity-corrected version of these analyses has also been applied using Four Dimensional Data Assimilation (FDDA. An additional adjustment is applied as observation nudging of satellite/lightning information at different time and spatial resolutions. Statistical parameters are proposed and tested as an objective way to intercompare satellite-derived and simulated trajectories. Simulations of medicanes exhibit a strong sensitivity to vertical humidity profiles. Trajectories of the storms are improved or worsened by using FDDA. A case dependence is obtained on the characteristics of the humidity-corrected medicanes. FDDA sensitivity

  8. Effects of assimilating precipitation zones derived from satellite and lightning data on numerical simulations of tropical-like Mediterranean storms

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fita, L.; Romero, R.; Luque, A.; Ramis, C. [Univ. de les Illes Balears, Palma de Mallorca (Spain). Grup de Meteorologia

    2009-07-01

    The scarcity of meteorological observations in maritime areas is a well-known problem that can be an important limitation in the study of different phenomena. Tropical-like storms or medicanes developed over the Mediterranean sea are intense storms with some similarities to the tropical ones. Although they do not reach the hurricane intensity, their potential for damage is very high, due to the densely populated Mediterranean coastal regions. In this study, the two notable cases of medicane development which occurred in the western Mediterranean basin in September 1996 and October 2003, are considered. The capability of mesoscale numerical models to simulate general aspects of such a phenomena has been previously shown. With the aim of improving the numerical results, an adjustment of the humidity vertical profiles in MM5 simulations is performed by means of satellite derived precipitation. Convective and stratiform precipitation types obtained from satellite images are used to individually adjust the profiles. Lightning hits are employed to identify convective grid points. The adjustment of the vertical humidity profiles is carried out in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analyses used as initial conditions for the simulations. Analyses nudging to ECMWF analyses and to the satellite-based humidity-corrected version of these analyses has also been applied using Four Dimensional Data Assimilation (FDDA). An additional adjustment is applied as observation nudging of satellite/lightning information at different time and spatial resolutions. Statistical parameters are proposed and tested as an objective way to intercompare satellite-derived and simulated trajectories. Simulations of medicanes exhibit a strong sensitivity to vertical humidity profiles. Trajectories of the storms are improved or worsened by using FDDA. A case dependence is obtained on the characteristics of the humidity-corrected medicanes. FDDA sensitivity on temporal and

  9. Role of the atmospheric mean state on the initiation of the Madden-Julian oscillation in a tropical channel model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ray, Pallav; Zhang, Chidong [University of Miami, RSMAS/MPO, Miami, FL (United States); Moncrieff, Mitchell W.; Dudhia, Jim; Caron, Julie M.; Bruyere, Cindy [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Ruby Leung, L. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA (United States)

    2011-01-15

    Tropical channel models, defined as models that are global in the zonal direction but bounded in the meridional direction, are particularly useful for simulating the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) and understanding its physical and dynamical basis. Influences from the extratropics through the lateral boundaries have been found to be essential to the reproduction of the initiation of certain MJO events. This led to a hypothesis that multi-year simulations using a tropical channel model would reproduce reasonable MJO statistics under the influence of prescribed lateral boundary conditions derived from global reanalyses. Interestingly, the MJO statistics in such a multi-year simulation by a high-resolution tropical channel model are not better than those from global climate models. The error in the atmospheric mean state is found to be a possible reason for the poor MJO statistics in the simulation. Nevertheless, even with a large error in the mean state, the multi-year simulation captures two MJO events previously found to be initiated by extratropical influences. However, the model does not reproduce a third event, whose initiation is not directly influenced by the extratropics. This implies that in the absence of dynamical interactions between the MJO and the lateral boundary conditions, the error in the mean state could be sufficient to prevent the MJO initiation. To explore this third MJO event further, a series of sensitivity tests are conducted. These tests show that the simulation of this event is neither critically influenced by the cumulus parameterization employed, nor the initial conditions when the model is integrated 2 weeks prior to the MJO initiation. The model captures this event when the MJO signal is already present in the initial conditions. The use of high-resolution sea surface temperature does not improve the simulation of the third MJO event. A higher-resolution nested domain covering the Indo-Pacific warm pool region and including a cloud

  10. Determination of chloromethane and dichloromethane in a tropical terrestrial mangrove forest in Brazil by measurements and modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kolusu, S. R.; Schlünzen, K. H.; Grawe, D.; Seifert, R.

    2018-01-01

    Chloromethane (CH3Cl) and dichloromethane (CH2Cl2) are known to have both natural and anthropogenic sources to the atmosphere. From recent studies it is known that tropical and sub tropical plants are primary sources of CH3Cl in the atmosphere. In order to quantify the biogenic emissions of CH3Cl and CH2Cl2 from mangroves, field measurement were conducted in a tropical mangrove forest on the coast of Brazil. To the best of our knowledge these field measurements were the first of its kind conducted in the tropical mangrove ecosystem of Braganca. A mesoscale atmospheric model, MEsoscale TRAnsport and fluid (Stream) model (METRAS), was used to simulate passive tracers concentrations and to study the dependency of concentrations on type of emission function and meteorology. Model simulated concentrations were normalized using the observed field data. With the help of the mesoscale model results and the observed data the mangrove emissions were estimated at the local scale. By using this bottom-up approach the global emissions of CH3Cl and CH2Cl2 from mangroves were quantified. The emission range obtained with different emission functions and different meteorology are 4-7 Gg yr-1 for CH3Cl and 1-2 Gg yr2 for CH2Cl2. Based on the present study the mangroves contribute 0.3 percent of CH2Cl2 and 0.2 percent of CH3Cl in the global emission budget. This study corroborates the study by Manley et al. (2007) which estimated that mangroves produce 0.3 percent of CH3Cl in the global emission budget. Although they contribute a small percentage in the global budget, their long lifetime enables them to contribute to the destruction of ozone in the stratosphere. From the detailed analyses of the model results it can be concluded that meteorology has a larger influence on the variability of concentrations than the temporal variability of the emission function.

  11. Tropical radioecology

    CERN Document Server

    Baxter, M

    2012-01-01

    Tropical Radioecology is a guide to the wide range of scientific practices and principles of this multidisciplinary field. It brings together past and present studies in the tropical and sub-tropical areas of the planet, highlighting the unique aspects of tropical systems. Until recently, radioecological models for tropical environments have depended upon data derived from temperate environments, despite the differences of these regions in terms of biota and abiotic conditions. Since radioactivity can be used to trace environmental processes in humans and other biota, this book offers examples of studies in which radiotracers have been used to assess biokinetics in tropical biota. Features chapters, co-authored by world experts, that explain the origins, inputs, distribution, behaviour, and consequences of radioactivity in tropical and subtropical systems. Provides comprehensive lists of relevant data and identifies current knowledge gaps to allow for targeted radioecological research in the future. Integrate...

  12. Using Transport Diagnostics to Understand Chemistry Climate Model Ozone Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strahan, S. E.; Douglass, A. R.; Stolarski, R. S.; Akiyoshi, H.; Bekki, S.; Braesicke, P.; Butchart, N.; Chipperfield, M. P.; Cugnet, D.; Dhomse, S.; hide

    2010-01-01

    We demonstrate how observations of N2O and mean age in the tropical and midlatitude lower stratosphere (LS) can be used to identify realistic transport in models. The results are applied to 15 Chemistry Climate Models (CCMs) participating in the 2010 WMO assessment. Comparison of the observed and simulated N2O/mean age relationship identifies models with fast or slow circulations and reveals details of model ascent and tropical isolation. The use of this process-oriented N2O/mean age diagnostic identifies models with compensating transport deficiencies that produce fortuitous agreement with mean age. We compare the diagnosed model transport behavior with a model's ability to produce realistic LS O3 profiles in the tropics and midlatitudes. Models with the greatest tropical transport problems show the poorest agreement with observations. Models with the most realistic LS transport agree more closely with LS observations and each other. We incorporate the results of the chemistry evaluations in the SPARC CCMVal Report (2010) to explain the range of CCM predictions for the return-to-1980 dates for global (60 S-60 N) and Antarctic column ozone. Later (earlier) Antarctic return dates are generally correlated to higher (lower) vortex Cl(sub y) levels in the LS, and vortex Cl(sub y) is generally correlated with the model's circulation although model Cl(sub y) chemistry or Cl(sub y) conservation can have a significant effect. In both regions, models that have good LS transport produce a smaller range of predictions for the return-to-1980 ozone values. This study suggests that the current range of predicted return dates is unnecessarily large due to identifiable model transport deficiencies.

  13. ECONOMIC MODELING STOCKS CONTROL SYSTEM: SIMULATION MODEL

    OpenAIRE

    Климак, М.С.; Войтко, С.В.

    2016-01-01

    Considered theoretical and applied aspects of the development of simulation models to predictthe optimal development and production systems that create tangible products andservices. It isproved that theprocessof inventory control needs of economicandmathematical modeling in viewof thecomplexity of theoretical studies. A simulation model of stocks control that allows make managementdecisions with production logistics

  14. Progress in modeling and simulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kindler, E

    1998-01-01

    For the modeling of systems, the computers are more and more used while the other "media" (including the human intellect) carrying the models are abandoned. For the modeling of knowledges, i.e. of more or less general concepts (possibly used to model systems composed of instances of such concepts), the object-oriented programming is nowadays widely used. For the modeling of processes existing and developing in the time, computer simulation is used, the results of which are often presented by means of animation (graphical pictures moving and changing in time). Unfortunately, the object-oriented programming tools are commonly not designed to be of a great use for simulation while the programming tools for simulation do not enable their users to apply the advantages of the object-oriented programming. Nevertheless, there are exclusions enabling to use general concepts represented at a computer, for constructing simulation models and for their easy modification. They are described in the present paper, together with true definitions of modeling, simulation and object-oriented programming (including cases that do not satisfy the definitions but are dangerous to introduce misunderstanding), an outline of their applications and of their further development. In relation to the fact that computing systems are being introduced to be control components into a large spectrum of (technological, social and biological) systems, the attention is oriented to models of systems containing modeling components.

  15. Modeling seasonal surface temperature variations in secondary tropical dry forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Sen; Sanchez-Azofeifa, Arturo

    2017-10-01

    Secondary tropical dry forests (TDFs) provide important ecosystem services such as carbon sequestration, biodiversity conservation, and nutrient cycle regulation. However, their biogeophysical processes at the canopy-atmosphere interface remain unknown, limiting our understanding of how this endangered ecosystem influences, and responds to the ongoing global warming. To facilitate future development of conservation policies, this study characterized the seasonal land surface temperature (LST) behavior of three successional stages (early, intermediate, and late) of a TDF, at the Santa Rosa National Park (SRNP), Costa Rica. A total of 38 Landsat-8 Thermal Infrared Sensor (TIRS) data and the Surface Reflectance (SR) product were utilized to model LST time series from July 2013 to July 2016 using a radiative transfer equation (RTE) algorithm. We further related the LST time series to seven vegetation indices which reflect different properties of TDFs, and soil moisture data obtained from a Wireless Sensor Network (WSN). Results showed that the LST in the dry season was 15-20 K higher than in the wet season at SRNP. We found that the early successional stages were about 6-8 K warmer than the intermediate successional stages and were 9-10 K warmer than the late successional stages in the middle of the dry season; meanwhile, a minimum LST difference (0-1 K) was observed at the end of the wet season. Leaf phenology and canopy architecture explained most LST variations in both dry and wet seasons. However, our analysis revealed that it is precipitation that ultimately determines the LST variations through both biogeochemical (leaf phenology) and biogeophysical processes (evapotranspiration) of the plants. Results of this study could help physiological modeling studies in secondary TDFs.

  16. Evaluating the coupled vegetation-fire model, LPJ-GUESS-SPITFIRE, against observed tropical forest biomass

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spessa, Allan; Forrest, Matthew; Werner, Christian; Steinkamp, Joerg; Hickler, Thomas

    2013-04-01

    disturbance such as fire. SPITFIRE (SPread and InTensity of FIRe and Emissions) mechanistically simulates the number of fires, area burnt, fire intensity, crown fires, fire-induced plant mortality, and emissions of carbon, trace gases and aerosols from biomass burning. Originally developed as an embedded model within LPJ-DGVM, SPITFIRE has since been coupled to LPJ-GUESS. However, neither LPJ-DGVM-SPITFIRE nor LPJ-GUESS-SPITFIRE has been fully benchmarked, especially in terms of how well each model simulates vegetation patterns and biomass in areas where fire is known to be important. This information is crucial if we are to have confidence in the models in forecasting fire, emissions from biomass burning and fire-climate impacts on ecosystems. Here we report on the benchmarking of the LPJ-GUESS-SPITFIRE model. We benchmarked LPJ-GUESS-SPITFIRE driven by a combination of daily reanalysis climate data (Sheffield 2012), monthly GFEDv3 burnt area data (1997-2009) (van der Werf et al. 2010) and long-term annual fire statistics (1901 to 2000) (Mouillot and Field 2005) against new Lidar-based biomass data for tropical forests and savannas (Saatchi et al. 2011; Baccini et al., 2012). Our new work has focused on revising the way GUESS simulates tree allometry, light penetration through the tree canopy and sapling recruitment, and how GUESS-SPITFIRE simulates fire-induced mortality, all based on recent literature, as well as a more explicit accounting of land cover change (JRC's GLC 2009). We present how these combined changes result in a much improved simulation of tree carbon across the tropics, including the Americas, Africa, Asia and Australia. Our results are compared with respect to more empirical-based approaches to calculating emissions from biomass burning. We discuss our findings in terms of improved forecasting of fire, emissions from biomass burning and fire-climate impacts on ecosystems.

  17. Calibration and validation of models for short-term decomposition and N mineralization of plant residues in the tropics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandre Ferreira do Nascimento

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Insight of nutrient release patterns associated with the decomposition of plant residues is important for their effective use as a green manure in food production systems. Thus, this study aimed to evaluate the ability of the Century, APSIM and NDICEA simulation models for predicting the decomposition and N mineralization of crop residues in the tropical Atlantic forest biome, Brazil. The simulation models were calibrated based on actual decomposition and N mineralization rates of three types of crop residues with different chemical and biochemical composition. The models were also validated for different pedo-climatic conditions and crop residues conditions. In general, the accuracy of decomposition and N mineralization improved after calibration. Overall RMSE values for the decomposition and N mineralization of the crop materials varied from 7.4 to 64.6% before models calibration compared to 3.7 to 16.3 % after calibration. Therefore, adequate calibration of the models is indispensable for use them under humid tropical conditions. The NDICEA model generally outperformed the other models. However, the decomposition and N mineralization was not very accurate during the first 30 days of incubation, especially for easily decomposable crop residues. An additional model variable may be required to capture initial microbiological growth as affected by the moisture dynamics of the residues, as is the case in surface residues decomposition models.

  18. Stochastic modeling analysis and simulation

    CERN Document Server

    Nelson, Barry L

    1995-01-01

    A coherent introduction to the techniques for modeling dynamic stochastic systems, this volume also offers a guide to the mathematical, numerical, and simulation tools of systems analysis. Suitable for advanced undergraduates and graduate-level industrial engineers and management science majors, it proposes modeling systems in terms of their simulation, regardless of whether simulation is employed for analysis. Beginning with a view of the conditions that permit a mathematical-numerical analysis, the text explores Poisson and renewal processes, Markov chains in discrete and continuous time, se

  19. FASTBUS simulation models in VHDL

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Appelquist, G.

    1992-11-01

    Four hardware simulation models implementing the FASTBUS protocol are described. The models are written in the VHDL hardware description language to obtain portability, i.e. without relations to any specific simulator. They include two complete FASTBUS devices, a full-duplex segment interconnect and ancillary logic for the segment. In addition, master and slave models using a high level interface to describe FASTBUS operations, are presented. With these models different configurations of FASTBUS systems can be evaluated and the FASTBUS transactions of new devices can be verified. (au)

  20. Model reduction for circuit simulation

    CERN Document Server

    Hinze, Michael; Maten, E Jan W Ter

    2011-01-01

    Simulation based on mathematical models plays a major role in computer aided design of integrated circuits (ICs). Decreasing structure sizes, increasing packing densities and driving frequencies require the use of refined mathematical models, and to take into account secondary, parasitic effects. This leads to very high dimensional problems which nowadays require simulation times too large for the short time-to-market demands in industry. Modern Model Order Reduction (MOR) techniques present a way out of this dilemma in providing surrogate models which keep the main characteristics of the devi

  1. Greenhouse simulation models.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bot, G.P.A.

    1989-01-01

    A model is a representation of a real system to describe some properties i.e. internal factors of that system (out-puts) as function of some external factors (inputs). It is impossible to describe the relation between all internal factors (if even all internal factors could be defined) and all

  2. A Model for Estimation of Rain Rate on Tropical Land from TRMM Microwave Imager Radiometer Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prabhakara, C.; Iacovazzi, R., Jr.; Yoo, J.-M.; Kim, Kyu-Myong

    2004-01-01

    Over the tropical land regions observations of the 85 GHz brightness temperature (T(sub 85v)) made by the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) radiometer when analyzed with the help of rain rate (R(sub pR)) deduced from the TRMM Precipitation Radar (PR) indicate that there are two maxima in rain rate. One strong maximum occurs when T(sub 85) has a value of about 220 K and the other weaker one when T(sub 85v) is much colder approx. 150 K. Together with the help of earlier studies based on airborne Doppler Radar observations and radiative transfer theoretical simulations, we infer the maximum near 220 K is a result of relatively weak scattering due to super cooled rain drops and water coated ice hydrometeors associated with a developing thunderstorm (Cb) that has a strong updraft. The other maximum is associated with strong scattering due to ice particles that are formed when the updraft collapses and the rain from the Cb is transit2oning from convective type to stratiform type. Incorporating these ideas and with a view to improve the estimation of rain rate from existing operational method applicable to the tropical land areas, we have developed a rain retrieval model. This model utilizes two parameters, that have a horizontal scale of approx. 20km, deduced from the TMI measurements at 19, 21 and 37 GHz (T(sub 19v), T(sub 21v), T(sub 37v). The third parameter in the model, namely the horizontal gradient of brightness temperature within the 20 km scale, is deduced from TMI measurements at 85 GHz. Utilizing these parameters our retrieval model is formulated to yield instantaneous rain rate on a scale of 20 km and seasonal average on a mesoscale that agree well with that of the PR.

  3. Dynamical linkage of tropical and subtropical weather systems to the intraseasonal oscillations of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall. Part II: Simulations in the ENSEMBLES project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ma, Shujie [Institut Catala de Ciencies del Clima (IC3), Barcelona, Catalonia (Spain); Rodo, Xavier [Institut Catala de Ciencies del Clima (IC3), Barcelona, Catalonia (Spain); Institut Catala de Recerca i Estudis Avancats (ICREA), Barcelona, Catalonia (Spain); Song, Yongjia [Georgia Institute of Technology, School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Atlanta, GA (United States); Cash, Benjamin A. [Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD (United States)

    2012-09-15

    We assess the ability of individual models (single-model ensembles) and the multi-model ensemble (MME) in the European Union-funded ENSEMBLES project to simulate the intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs; specifically in 10-20-day and 30-50-day frequency bands) of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) over the Western Ghats (WG) and the Bay of Bengal (BoB), respectively. This assessment is made on the basis of the dynamical linkages identified from the analysis of observations in a companion study to this work. In general, all models show reasonable skill in simulating the active and break cycles of the 30-50-day ISOs over the Indian summer monsoon region. This skill is closely associated with the proper reproduction of both the northward propagation of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and the variations of monsoon circulation in this band. However, the models do not manage to correctly simulate the eastward propagation of the 30-50-day ISOs in the western/central tropical Pacific and the eastward extension of the ITCZ in a northwest to southeast tilt. This limitation is closely associated with a limited capacity of models to accurately reproduce the magnitudes of intraseasonal anomalies of both the ITCZ in the Asian tropical summer monsoon regions and trade winds in the tropical Pacific. Poor reproduction of the activity of the western Pacific subtropical high on intraseasonal time scales also amplify this limitation. Conversely, the models make good reproduction of the WG 10-20-day ISOs. This success is closely related to good performance of the models in the representation of the northward propagation of the ITCZ, which is partially promoted by local air-sea interactions in the Indian Ocean in this higher-frequency band. Although the feature of westward propagation is generally represented in the simulated BoB 10-20-day ISOs, the air-sea interactions in the Indian Ocean are spuriously active in the models. This leads to active WG rainfall, which is not

  4. A VRLA battery simulation model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pascoe, Phillip E.; Anbuky, Adnan H.

    2004-01-01

    A valve regulated lead acid (VRLA) battery simulation model is an invaluable tool for the standby power system engineer. The obvious use for such a model is to allow the assessment of battery performance. This may involve determining the influence of cells suffering from state of health (SOH) degradation on the performance of the entire string, or the running of test scenarios to ascertain the most suitable battery size for the application. In addition, it enables the engineer to assess the performance of the overall power system. This includes, for example, running test scenarios to determine the benefits of various load shedding schemes. It also allows the assessment of other power system components, either for determining their requirements and/or vulnerabilities. Finally, a VRLA battery simulation model is vital as a stand alone tool for educational purposes. Despite the fundamentals of the VRLA battery having been established for over 100 years, its operating behaviour is often poorly understood. An accurate simulation model enables the engineer to gain a better understanding of VRLA battery behaviour. A system level multipurpose VRLA battery simulation model is presented. It allows an arbitrary battery (capacity, SOH, number of cells and number of strings) to be simulated under arbitrary operating conditions (discharge rate, ambient temperature, end voltage, charge rate and initial state of charge). The model accurately reflects the VRLA battery discharge and recharge behaviour. This includes the complex start of discharge region known as the coup de fouet

  5. Simulated sensitivity of tropical cyclone track to the moisture in an idealized monsoon gyre

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Ziyu; Ge, Xuyang; Guo, Bingyao

    2017-12-01

    In this study, the sensitivity of tropical cyclone (TC) track to the moisture condition in a nearby monsoon gyre (MG) is investigated. Numerical simulations reveal that TC track is highly sensitive to the spatial distribution of relative humidity (RH). In an experiment conducted with higher (lower) RH in the eastern (western) semicircle of an MG, the TC experiences a sharp northward turning. In contrast, when the RH pattern is reversed, the simulated TC does not show a sharp northward turning. The RH distribution modulates the intensity and structure of both the TC and MG, so that when the TC is initially embedded in a moister environment, convection is enhanced in the outer core, which favors an expansion of the outer core size. A TC with a larger outer size has greater beta-effect propagation, favoring a faster westward translational speed. Meanwhile, higher RH enhances the vorticity gradient within the MG and promotes a quicker attraction between the TC and MG centers through vorticity segregation process. These cumulative effects cause the TC to collocate with the MG center. Once the coalescence process takes place, the energy dispersion associated with the TC and MG is enhanced, which rapidly strengthens southwesterly flows on the eastern flanks. The resulting steering flow leads the TC to take a sharp northward track.

  6. The influence of biogenic emissions from Africa on tropical tropospheric ozone during 2006: a global modeling study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. E. Williams

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available We have performed simulations using a 3-D global chemistry-transport model to investigate the influence that biogenic emissions from the African continent exert on the composition of the troposphere in the tropical region. For this purpose we have applied two recently developed biogenic emission inventories provided for use in large-scale global models (Granier et al., 2005; Lathière et al., 2006 whose seasonality and temporal distribution for biogenic emissions of isoprene, other volatile organic compounds and NO is markedly different. The use of the 12 year average values for biogenic emissions provided by Lathière et al. (2006 results in an increase in the amount of nitrogen sequestrated into longer lived reservoir compounds which contributes to the reduction in the tropospheric ozone burden in the tropics. The associated re-partitioning of nitrogen between PAN, HNO3 and organic nitrates also results in a ~5% increase in the loss of nitrogen by wet deposition. At a global scale there is a reduction in the oxidizing capacity of the model atmosphere which increases the atmospheric lifetimes of CH4 and CO by ~1.5% and ~4%, respectively. Comparisons against a range of different measurements indicate that applying the 12 year average of Lathière et al. (2006 improves the performance of TM4_AMMA for 2006 in the tropics. By the use of sensitivity studies we show that the release of NO from soils in Africa accounts for between ~2–45% of tropospheric ozone in the African troposphere, ~10% in the upper troposphere and between ~5–20% of the tropical tropospheric ozone column over the tropical Atlantic Ocean. The subsequent reduction in OH over the source regions allows enhanced transport of CO out of the region. For biogenic volatile organic C1 to C3 species released from Africa, the effects on tropical tropospheric ozone are rather limited, although this source contributes to the global burden of VOC by between ~2–4% and

  7. Sensitivity Analysis of Simulation Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kleijnen, J.P.C.

    2009-01-01

    This contribution presents an overview of sensitivity analysis of simulation models, including the estimation of gradients. It covers classic designs and their corresponding (meta)models; namely, resolution-III designs including fractional-factorial two-level designs for first-order polynomial

  8. Computer Based Modelling and Simulation

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Resonance – Journal of Science Education; Volume 6; Issue 3. Computer Based Modelling and Simulation - Modelling Deterministic Systems. N K Srinivasan. General Article Volume 6 Issue 3 March 2001 pp 46-54. Fulltext. Click here to view fulltext PDF. Permanent link:

  9. Atmospheric Corrosion Behavior and Mechanism of a Ni-Advanced Weathering Steel in Simulated Tropical Marine Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Wei; Zeng, Zhongping; Cheng, Xuequn; Li, Xiaogang; Liu, Bo

    2017-12-01

    Corrosion behavior of Ni-advanced weathering steel, as well as carbon steel and conventional weathering steel, in a simulated tropical marine atmosphere was studied by field exposure and indoor simulation tests. Meanwhile, morphology and composition of corrosion products formed on the exposed steels were surveyed through scanning electron microscopy, energy-dispersive x-ray spectroscopy and x-ray diffraction. Results indicated that the additive Ni in weathering steel played an important role during the corrosion process, which took part in the formation of corrosion products, enriched in the inner rust layer and promoted the transformation from loose γ-FeOOH to dense α-FeOOH. As a result, the main aggressive ion, i.e., Cl-, was effectively separated in the outer rust layer which leads to the lowest corrosion rate among these tested steels. Thus, the resistance of Ni-advanced weathering steel to atmospheric corrosion was significantly improved in a simulated tropical marine environment.

  10. Improving rainfall representation for large-scale hydrological modelling of tropical mountain basins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zulkafli, Zed; Buytaert, Wouter; Onof, Christian; Lavado, Waldo; Guyot, Jean-Loup

    2013-04-01

    Errors in the forcing data are sometimes overlooked in hydrological studies even when they could be the most important source of uncertainty. The latter particularly holds true in tropical countries with short historical records of rainfall monitoring and remote areas with sparse rain gauge network. In such instances, alternative data such as the remotely sensed precipitation from the TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) satellite have been used. These provide a good spatial representation of rainfall processes but have been established in the literature to contain volumetric biases that may impair the results of hydrological modelling or worse, are compensated during model calibration. In this study, we analysed precipitation time series from the TMPA (TRMM Multiple Precipitation Algorithm, version 6) against measurements from over 300 gauges in the Andes and Amazon regions of Peru and Ecuador. We found moderately good monthly correlation between the pixel and gauge pairs but a severe underestimation of rainfall amounts and wet days. The discrepancy between the time series pairs is particularly visible over the east side of the Andes and may be attributed to localized and orographic-driven high intensity rainfall, which the satellite product may have limited skills at capturing due to technical and scale issues. This consequently results in a low bias in the simulated streamflow volumes further downstream. In comparison, with the recently released TMPA, version 7, the biases reduce. This work further explores several approaches to merge the two sources of rainfall measurements, each of a different spatial and temporal support, with the objective of improving the representation of rainfall in hydrological simulations. The methods used are (1) mean bias correction (2) data assimilation using Kalman filter Bayesian updating. The results are evaluated by means of (1) a comparison of runoff ratios (the ratio of the total runoff and the total precipitation over an

  11. Ultraviolet radiation modelling from ground-based and satellite measurements on Reunion Island, southern tropics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Lamy

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Surface ultraviolet radiation (SUR is not an increasing concern after the implementation of the Montreal Protocol and the recovery of the ozone layer Morgenstern et al.(2008. However, large uncertainties remain in the prediction of future changes of SUR Bais et al.(2015. Several studies pointed out that UV-B impacts the biosphere Erickson et al.(2015, especially the aquatic system, which plays a central part in the biogeochemical cycle Hader et al.(2007. It can affect phytoplankton productivity Smith and Cullen(1995. This influence can result in either positive or negative feedback on climate (Zepp et al., 2007. Global circulation model simulations predict an acceleration of the Brewer-Dobson circulation over the next century (Butchart, 2014, which would lead to a decrease in ozone levels in the tropics and an enhancement at higher latitudes (Hegglin and Shepherd, 2009. Reunion Island is located in the tropics (21° S, 55° E, in a part of the world where the amount of ozone in the ozone column is naturally low. In addition, this island is mountainous and the marine atmosphere is often clean with low aerosol concentrations. Thus, measurements show much higher SUR than at other sites at the same latitude or at midlatitudes. Ground-based measurements of SUR have been taken on Reunion Island by a Bentham DTMc300 spectroradiometer since 2009. This instrument is affiliated with the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC. In order to quantify the future evolution of SUR in the tropics, it is necessary to validate a model against present observations. This study is designed to be a preliminary parametric and sensitivity study of SUR modelling in the tropics. We developed a local parameterisation using the Tropospheric Ultraviolet and Visible Model (TUV; Madronich, 1993 and compared the output of TUV to multiple years of Bentham spectral measurements. This comparison started in early 2009 and continued until 2016

  12. Ultraviolet radiation modelling from ground-based and satellite measurements on Reunion Island, southern tropics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamy, Kévin; Portafaix, Thierry; Brogniez, Colette; Godin-Beekmann, Sophie; Bencherif, Hassan; Morel, Béatrice; Pazmino, Andrea; Metzger, Jean Marc; Auriol, Frédérique; Deroo, Christine; Duflot, Valentin; Goloub, Philippe; Long, Charles N.

    2018-01-01

    Surface ultraviolet radiation (SUR) is not an increasing concern after the implementation of the Montreal Protocol and the recovery of the ozone layer (Morgenstern et al., 2008). However, large uncertainties remain in the prediction of future changes of SUR (Bais et al., 2015). Several studies pointed out that UV-B impacts the biosphere (Erickson et al., 2015), especially the aquatic system, which plays a central part in the biogeochemical cycle (Hader et al., 2007). It can affect phytoplankton productivity (Smith and Cullen, 1995). This influence can result in either positive or negative feedback on climate (Zepp et al., 2007). Global circulation model simulations predict an acceleration of the Brewer-Dobson circulation over the next century (Butchart, 2014), which would lead to a decrease in ozone levels in the tropics and an enhancement at higher latitudes (Hegglin and Shepherd, 2009). Reunion Island is located in the tropics (21° S, 55° E), in a part of the world where the amount of ozone in the ozone column is naturally low. In addition, this island is mountainous and the marine atmosphere is often clean with low aerosol concentrations. Thus, measurements show much higher SUR than at other sites at the same latitude or at midlatitudes. Ground-based measurements of SUR have been taken on Reunion Island by a Bentham DTMc300 spectroradiometer since 2009. This instrument is affiliated with the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC). In order to quantify the future evolution of SUR in the tropics, it is necessary to validate a model against present observations. This study is designed to be a preliminary parametric and sensitivity study of SUR modelling in the tropics. We developed a local parameterisation using the Tropospheric Ultraviolet and Visible Model (TUV; Madronich, 1993) and compared the output of TUV to multiple years of Bentham spectral measurements. This comparison started in early 2009 and continued until 2016. Only

  13. Vehicle dynamics modeling and simulation

    CERN Document Server

    Schramm, Dieter; Bardini, Roberto

    2014-01-01

    The authors examine in detail the fundamentals and mathematical descriptions of the dynamics of automobiles. In this context different levels of complexity will be presented, starting with basic single-track models up to complex three-dimensional multi-body models. A particular focus is on the process of establishing mathematical models on the basis of real cars and the validation of simulation results. The methods presented are explained in detail by means of selected application scenarios.

  14. Modeling fire behavior on tropical islands with high-resolution weather data

    Science.gov (United States)

    John W. Benoit; Francis M. Fujioka; David R. Weise

    2009-01-01

    In this study, we consider fire behavior simulation in tropical island scenarios such as Hawaii and Puerto Rico. The development of a system to provide real-time fire behavior prediction in Hawaii is discussed. This involves obtaining fuels and topography information at a fine scale, as well as supplying daily high-resolution weather forecast data for the area of...

  15. Numerical simulation of Higgs models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jaster, A.

    1995-10-01

    The SU(2) Higgs and the Schwinger model on the lattice were analysed. Numerical simulations of the SU(2) Higgs model were performed to study the finite temperature electroweak phase transition. With the help of the multicanonical method the distribution of an order parameter at the phase transition point was measured. This was used to obtain the order of the phase transition and the value of the interface tension with the histogram method. Numerical simulations were also performed at zero temperature to perform renormalization. The measured values for the Wilson loops were used to determine the static potential and from this the renormalized gauge coupling. The Schwinger model was simulated at different gauge couplings to analyse the properties of the Kaplan-Shamir fermions. The prediction that the mass parameter gets only multiplicative renormalization was tested and verified. (orig.)

  16. Stochastic models: theory and simulation.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Field, Richard V., Jr.

    2008-03-01

    Many problems in applied science and engineering involve physical phenomena that behave randomly in time and/or space. Examples are diverse and include turbulent flow over an aircraft wing, Earth climatology, material microstructure, and the financial markets. Mathematical models for these random phenomena are referred to as stochastic processes and/or random fields, and Monte Carlo simulation is the only general-purpose tool for solving problems of this type. The use of Monte Carlo simulation requires methods and algorithms to generate samples of the appropriate stochastic model; these samples then become inputs and/or boundary conditions to established deterministic simulation codes. While numerous algorithms and tools currently exist to generate samples of simple random variables and vectors, no cohesive simulation tool yet exists for generating samples of stochastic processes and/or random fields. There are two objectives of this report. First, we provide some theoretical background on stochastic processes and random fields that can be used to model phenomena that are random in space and/or time. Second, we provide simple algorithms that can be used to generate independent samples of general stochastic models. The theory and simulation of random variables and vectors is also reviewed for completeness.

  17. Influence of landscape heterogeneity on water available to tropical forests in an Amazonian catchment and implications for modeling drought response: Water Available to Tropical Forest

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fang, Yilin; Leung, Lai-Yung; Duan, Zhuoran; Wigmosta, Mark S.; Maxwell, Reed M.; Chambers, Jeffrey Q.; Tomasella, Javier

    2017-08-18

    The Amazon basin experienced periodic droughts in the past, and climate models projected more intense and frequent droughts in the future. How tropical forests respond to drought may depend on water availability, which is modulated by landscape heterogeneity. Using the one-dimensional ACME Land Model (ALM) and the three-dimensional ParFlow variably saturated flow model, a series of numerical experiments were performed for the Asu catchment in central Amazon to elucidate processes that influence water available for plant use and provide insights for improving Earth system models. Results from ParFlow show that topography has a dominant influence on groundwater table and runoff through lateral flow. Without any representations of lateral processes, ALM simulates very different seasonal variations in groundwater table and runoff compared to ParFlow even if it is able to reproduce the long-term spatial average groundwater table of ParFlow through simple parameter calibration. In the ParFlow simulations, the groundwater table is evidently deeper and the soil saturation is lower in the plateau compared to the valley. However, even in the plateau during the dry season in the drought year of 2005, plant transpiration is not water stressed in the ParFlow simulations as the soil saturation is still sufficient to maintain a soil matric potential for the stomata to be fully open. This finding is insensitive to uncertainty in atmospheric forcing and soil parameters, but the empirical wilting formulation used in the models is an important factor that should be addressed using observations and modeling of coupled plant hydraulics-soil hydrology processes in future studies.

  18. Model study of the impacts of emissions, chemical and dynamical processes on the CO variability in the tropical upper troposphere and lower stratosphere

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chunxiao Wang

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available The Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM is used to investigate the relative importance of CO emissions, chemical and dynamical processes on temporal variations of CO in the tropical upper troposphere (UT and the lower stratosphere (LS. The semi-annual oscillation (SAO in the tropical UT and the annual oscillation (AO in the tropical LS detected in the MLS CO observations can be well captured by the model. The model simulations reveal that the CO surface emissions explain most of the SAO signals in the tropical UT, with the remainder being attributed to dynamical and chemical processes. The CO AO in the LS primarily results from combined effects of dynamical and chemical processes while the dynamical and chemical processes make opposite contributions to the CO AO signals, consistent with the previous findings. Our analysis further reveals that CO surface emissions tend to weaken the amplitude of the CO annual cycle in the tropical LS, while the annual variations in the meridional component of the Brewer–Dobson (BD circulation can amplify the annual variations of CO above 30 hPa. The model simulations also indicate that the CO annual cycle in the LS has a mixed behaviour with the annual variations of tropical upwelling reflected in CO between ~70 and ~50 hPa and a standard tape-recorder signal above 50 hPa. Moreover, the AO signals of CO exist up to 10 hPa when the chemical processes are switched off. The temporal and spatial variations of CO in the UT and near the tropopause are mainly driven by the upward transport of CO by tropical deep convection and the Asian summer monsoon circulation. In the early stage of the South Asian summer monsoon over the Bay of Bengal and the South China in the late spring and early summer, the transport of the CO surface emissions over Southeast Asia by the South Asian summer monsoon leads to an increase in the tropical CO, but the horizontal transport from the extratropics into the tropics (termed in

  19. Plasma modelling and numerical simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Dijk, J; Kroesen, G M W; Bogaerts, A

    2009-01-01

    Plasma modelling is an exciting subject in which virtually all physical disciplines are represented. Plasma models combine the electromagnetic, statistical and fluid dynamical theories that have their roots in the 19th century with the modern insights concerning the structure of matter that were developed throughout the 20th century. The present cluster issue consists of 20 invited contributions, which are representative of the state of the art in plasma modelling and numerical simulation. These contributions provide an in-depth discussion of the major theories and modelling and simulation strategies, and their applications to contemporary plasma-based technologies. In this editorial review, we introduce and complement those papers by providing a bird's eye perspective on plasma modelling and discussing the historical context in which it has surfaced. (editorial review)

  20. The LMDZ4 general circulation model: climate performance and sensitivity to parametrized physics with emphasis on tropical convection

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hourdin, Frederic; Musat, Ionela; Bony, Sandrine; Codron, Francis; Dufresne, Jean-Louis; Fairhead, Laurent; Grandpeix, Jean-Yves; LeVan, Phu; Li, Zhao-Xin; Lott, Francois [CNRS/UPMC, Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique (LMD/IPSL), Paris Cedex 05 (France); Braconnot, Pascale; Friedlingstein, Pierre [Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l' Environnement (LSCE/IPSL), Saclay (France); Filiberti, Marie-Angele [Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL), Paris (France); Krinner, Gerhard [Laboratoire de Glaciologie et Geophysique de l' Environnement, Grenoble (France)

    2006-12-15

    The LMDZ4 general circulation model is the atmospheric component of the IPSL-CM4 coupled model which has been used to perform climate change simulations for the 4th IPCC assessment report. The main aspects of the model climatology (forced by observed sea surface temperature) are documented here, as well as the major improvements with respect to the previous versions, which mainly come form the parametrization of tropical convection. A methodology is proposed to help analyse the sensitivity of the tropical Hadley-Walker circulation to the parametrization of cumulus convection and clouds. The tropical circulation is characterized using scalar potentials associated with the horizontal wind and horizontal transport of geopotential (the Laplacian of which is proportional to the total vertical momentum in the atmospheric column). The effect of parametrized physics is analysed in a regime sorted framework using the vertical velocity at 500 hPa as a proxy for large scale vertical motion. Compared to Tiedtke's convection scheme, used in previous versions, the Emanuel's scheme improves the representation of the Hadley-Walker circulation, with a relatively stronger and deeper large scale vertical ascent over tropical continents, and suppresses the marked patterns of concentrated rainfall over oceans. Thanks to the regime sorted analyses, these differences are attributed to intrinsic differences in the vertical distribution of convective heating, and to the lack of self-inhibition by precipitating downdraughts in Tiedtke's parametrization. Both the convection and cloud schemes are shown to control the relative importance of large scale convection over land and ocean, an important point for the behaviour of the coupled model. (orig.)

  1. Climatology of extratropical transition for North Atlantic tropical cyclones in the high-resolution GFDL climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, M.; Vecchi, G. A.; Smith, J. A.

    2015-12-01

    The extratropical transition (ET) process of tropical cyclones can lead to fundamental changes in hurricane structure and storms that continue to pose large threats to life and properties. Given the importance of ET, it is necessary to understand how ET changes under a warming climate. Towards this goal, the GFDL climate model (FLOR) is first used to understand the current-day ET climatology. The standard model and a flux-adjusted version of FLOR are both used to examine ET climatology. The operational cyclone phase space method is used to define the onset and completion times of ET. The ET climatology from the climate model is compared with those from two reanalysis data sets ranging from 1979 to 2012. Both models exhibit good skills at simulating the frequency map of phase space diagram. The flux-adjusted version shows much better skill in capturing the ET climatology in terms of ET track patterns, ET locations and monthly ET variations. The model is able to simulate the frequency ratio of reintensified tropical cyclones from all ET cases. Future work involves examining changes in the ET climatology under a changing climate.

  2. Seasonal & Daily Amazon Column CO2 & CO Observations from Ground & Space Used to Evaluate Tropical Ecosystem Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dubey, M. K.; Parker, H. A.; Wennberg, P. O.; Wunch, D.; Jacobson, A. R.; Kawa, S. R.; Keppel-Aleks, G.; Basu, S.; O'Dell, C.; Frankenberg, C.; Michalak, A. M.; Baker, D. F.; Christofferson, B.; Restrepo-Coupe, N.; Saleska, S. R.; De Araujo, A. C.; Miller, J. B.

    2016-12-01

    The Amazon basin stores 150-200 PgC, exchanges 18 PgC with the atmosphere every year and has taken up 0.42-0.65 PgC/y over the past two decades. Despite its global significance, the response of the tropical carbon cycle to climate variability and change is ill constrained as evidenced by the large negative and positive feedbacks in future climate simulations. The complex interplay of radiation, water and ecosystem phenology remains unresolved in current tropical ecosystem models. We use high frequency regional scale TCCON observations of column CO2, CO and CH4 near Manaus, Brazil that began in October 2014 to understand the aforementioned interplay of processes in regulating biosphere-atmosphere exchange. We observe a robust daily column CO2 uptake of about 2 ppm (4 ppm to 0.5 ppm) over 8 hours and evaluate how it changes as we transition to the dry season. Back-trajectory calculations show that the daily CO2 uptake footprint is terrestrial and influenced by the heterogeneity of the Amazon rain forests. The column CO falls from above 120 ppb to below 80 ppb as we transition from the biomass burning to wet seasons. The daily mean column CO2 rises by 3 ppm from October through June. Removal of biomass burning, secular CO2 increase and variations from transport (by Carbon tracker simulations) implies an increase of 2.3 ppm results from tropical biospheric processes (respiration and photosynthesis). This is consistent with ground-based remote sensing and eddy flux observations that indicate that leaf development and demography drives the tropical carbon cycle in regions that are not water limited and is not considered in current models. We compare our observations with output from 7 CO2 inversion transport models with assimilated meteorology and find that while 5 models reproduce the CO2 seasonal cycle all of them under predict the daily drawdown of CO2 by a factor of 3. This indicates that the CO2 flux partitioning between photosynthesis and respiration is incorrect

  3. Urban UV environment in a sub-tropical megacity – A measurement and modelling study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ka-Ming Wai

    Full Text Available The variations of solar total UV (UVA + UVB exposure rates in a megacity featured with high-rise buildings during summer months were measured and relevant model predictions were evaluated. The maximum pedestrian-level total solar UV exposure rate was less than the un-obstructed exposure rate at any time, attributing to the prevailing reduction in the diffuse solar radiation due to the obstruction effects of distant buildings. Comparing with the measurements, our coupled model well captured the spatial and temporal variations of the reduction of UV exposure rates. By measurements, large reduction in the solar total UV exposure rate down to 12% of un-obstructed exposure rate due to the building obstruction effects was found, agreeing with our previous simulation results and results from an Australian megacity. On the other hand, building reflection from reflective curtain walls could reach 23% of the un-obstructed solar total UV exposure rate at the ground level. This implied improper building design creating additional harmful effects of solar UV radiation on the environment. The coupled model was also applied to predict the urban UV exposure rates during a tropical-cyclone induced aerosol episode. A well-evaluated urban solar UV model is an important tool for sustainable urban design.

  4. Model for Simulation Atmospheric Turbulence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lundtang Petersen, Erik

    1976-01-01

    A method that produces realistic simulations of atmospheric turbulence is developed and analyzed. The procedure makes use of a generalized spectral analysis, often called a proper orthogonal decomposition or the Karhunen-Loève expansion. A set of criteria, emphasizing a realistic appearance...... eigenfunctions and estimates of the distributions of the corresponding expansion coefficients. The simulation method utilizes the eigenfunction expansion procedure to produce preliminary time histories of the three velocity components simultaneously. As a final step, a spectral shaping procedure is then applied....... The method is unique in modeling the three velocity components simultaneously, and it is found that important cross-statistical features are reasonably well-behaved. It is concluded that the model provides a practical, operational simulator of atmospheric turbulence....

  5. A comparative study of mixed exponential and Weibull distributions in a stochastic model replicating a tropical rainfall process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abas, Norzaida; Daud, Zalina M.; Yusof, Fadhilah

    2014-11-01

    A stochastic rainfall model is presented for the generation of hourly rainfall data in an urban area in Malaysia. In view of the high temporal and spatial variability of rainfall within the tropical rain belt, the Spatial-Temporal Neyman-Scott Rectangular Pulse model was used. The model, which is governed by the Neyman-Scott process, employs a reasonable number of parameters to represent the physical attributes of rainfall. A common approach is to attach each attribute to a mathematical distribution. With respect to rain cell intensity, this study proposes the use of a mixed exponential distribution. The performance of the proposed model was compared to a model that employs the Weibull distribution. Hourly and daily rainfall data from four stations in the Damansara River basin in Malaysia were used as input to the models, and simulations of hourly series were performed for an independent site within the basin. The performance of the models was assessed based on how closely the statistical characteristics of the simulated series resembled the statistics of the observed series. The findings obtained based on graphical representation revealed that the statistical characteristics of the simulated series for both models compared reasonably well with the observed series. However, a further assessment using the AIC, BIC and RMSE showed that the proposed model yields better results. The results of this study indicate that for tropical climates, the proposed model, using a mixed exponential distribution, is the best choice for generation of synthetic data for ungauged sites or for sites with insufficient data within the limit of the fitted region.

  6. Simulation of Drought-induced Tree Mortality Using a New Individual and Hydraulic Trait-based Model (S-TEDy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sinha, T.; Gangodagamage, C.; Ale, S.; Frazier, A. G.; Giambelluca, T. W.; Kumagai, T.; Nakai, T.; Sato, H.

    2017-12-01

    Drought-related tree mortality at a regional scale causes drastic shifts in carbon and water cycling in Southeast Asian tropical rainforests, where severe droughts are projected to occur more frequently, especially under El Niño conditions. To provide a useful tool for projecting the tropical rainforest dynamics under climate change conditions, we developed the Spatially Explicit Individual-Based (SEIB) Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (DGVM) applicable to simulating mechanistic tree mortality induced by the climatic impacts via individual-tree-scale ecophysiology such as hydraulic failure and carbon starvation. In this study, we present the new model, SEIB-originated Terrestrial Ecosystem Dynamics (S-TEDy) model, and the computation results were compared with observations collected at a field site in a Bornean tropical rainforest. Furthermore, after validating the model's performance, numerical experiments addressing a future of the tropical rainforest were conducted using some global climate model (GCM) simulation outputs.

  7. Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) simulations of climate following volcanic eruptions

    KAUST Repository

    Driscoll, Simon; Bozzo, Alessio; Gray, Lesley J.; Robock, Alan; Stenchikov, Georgiy L.

    2012-01-01

    The ability of the climate models submitted to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) database to simulate the Northern Hemisphere winter climate following a large tropical volcanic eruption is assessed. When sulfate aerosols are produced by volcanic injections into the tropical stratosphere and spread by the stratospheric circulation, it not only causes globally averaged tropospheric cooling but also a localized heating in the lower stratosphere, which can cause major dynamical feedbacks. Observations show a lower stratospheric and surface response during the following one or two Northern Hemisphere (NH) winters, that resembles the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Simulations from 13 CMIP5 models that represent tropical eruptions in the 19th and 20th century are examined, focusing on the large-scale regional impacts associated with the large-scale circulation during the NH winter season. The models generally fail to capture the NH dynamical response following eruptions. They do not sufficiently simulate the observed post-volcanic strengthened NH polar vortex, positive NAO, or NH Eurasian warming pattern, and they tend to overestimate the cooling in the tropical troposphere. The findings are confirmed by a superposed epoch analysis of the NAO index for each model. The study confirms previous similar evaluations and raises concern for the ability of current climate models to simulate the response of a major mode of global circulation variability to external forcings. This is also of concern for the accuracy of geoengineering modeling studies that assess the atmospheric response to stratosphere-injected particles.

  8. Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) simulations of climate following volcanic eruptions

    KAUST Repository

    Driscoll, Simon

    2012-09-16

    The ability of the climate models submitted to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) database to simulate the Northern Hemisphere winter climate following a large tropical volcanic eruption is assessed. When sulfate aerosols are produced by volcanic injections into the tropical stratosphere and spread by the stratospheric circulation, it not only causes globally averaged tropospheric cooling but also a localized heating in the lower stratosphere, which can cause major dynamical feedbacks. Observations show a lower stratospheric and surface response during the following one or two Northern Hemisphere (NH) winters, that resembles the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Simulations from 13 CMIP5 models that represent tropical eruptions in the 19th and 20th century are examined, focusing on the large-scale regional impacts associated with the large-scale circulation during the NH winter season. The models generally fail to capture the NH dynamical response following eruptions. They do not sufficiently simulate the observed post-volcanic strengthened NH polar vortex, positive NAO, or NH Eurasian warming pattern, and they tend to overestimate the cooling in the tropical troposphere. The findings are confirmed by a superposed epoch analysis of the NAO index for each model. The study confirms previous similar evaluations and raises concern for the ability of current climate models to simulate the response of a major mode of global circulation variability to external forcings. This is also of concern for the accuracy of geoengineering modeling studies that assess the atmospheric response to stratosphere-injected particles.

  9. Validation process of simulation model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    San Isidro, M. J.

    1998-01-01

    It is presented a methodology on empirical validation about any detailed simulation model. This king of validation it is always related with an experimental case. The empirical validation has a residual sense, because the conclusions are based on comparisons between simulated outputs and experimental measurements. This methodology will guide us to detect the fails of the simulation model. Furthermore, it can be used a guide in the design of posterior experiments. Three steps can be well differentiated: Sensitivity analysis. It can be made with a DSA, differential sensitivity analysis, and with a MCSA, Monte-Carlo sensitivity analysis. Looking the optimal domains of the input parameters. It has been developed a procedure based on the Monte-Carlo methods and Cluster techniques, to find the optimal domains of these parameters. Residual analysis. This analysis has been made on the time domain and on the frequency domain, it has been used the correlation analysis and spectral analysis. As application of this methodology, it is presented the validation carried out on a thermal simulation model on buildings, Esp., studying the behavior of building components on a Test Cell of LECE of CIEMAT. (Author) 17 refs

  10. Ajustement statistique des simulations climatiques : l'exemple des précipitations saisonnières de l'Amérique tropicaleStatistical adjustment of simulated climate: example of seasonal rainfall of tropical America.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moron, Vincent; Navarra, Antonio

    2000-05-01

    This study presents the skill of the seasonal rainfall of tropical America from an ensemble of three 34-year general circulation model (ECHAM 4) simulations forced with observed sea surface temperature between 1961 and 1994. The skill gives a first idea of the amount of potential predictability if the sea surface temperatures are perfectly known some time in advance. We use statistical post-processing based on the leading modes (extracted from Singular Value Decomposition of the covariance matrix between observed and simulated rainfall fields) to improve the raw skill obtained by simple comparison between observations and simulations. It is shown that 36-55 % of the observed seasonal variability is explained by the simulations on a regional basis. Skill is greatest for Brazilian Nordeste (March-May), but also for northern South America or the Caribbean basin in June-September or northern Amazonia in September-November for example.

  11. The design and application of a radiological consequence model for tropical and subtropical regions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Domel, R.U.; Harris, F.F.; Crawford, J.

    1997-01-01

    The post Chernobyl era has seen the development of a plethora of radiological consequence models. At ANSTO, a model is being developed with a user-friendly interface which will assess the radiological consequences, after an incident, in tropical and sub-tropical climates. The model combines specific regional dispersion and deposition data to determine the dose to man via the major pathways of external and internal irradiation. The external irradiation data will need to include lifestyle information such as time spent L indoors/outdoors, the high/low activity times of the different groups of people (especially critical groups) and shielding factors for housing. The internal irradiation data requires food consumption values, effect of food processing and transfer parameters (soil to plant, plant to animal) to be obtained for tropical and sub-tropical regions. The model allows the user to specify the radionuclide of interest, the age of the person receiving l the dose, race, dietary components and lifestyle. The operator may use a number of default categories, but regional information may also be entered and incorporated into the radiological model allowing assessment of dose to critical groups using site specific data. Initially, the model will deal with the South East Asian region but flexibility has been incorporated into the design to allow application in other regions. A geographic information system is used for display of all input and output data allowing quick access to not only the results but also the underlying assumptions. The model also has portability across computer platforms. The model has been developed to provide a tool for directing future research, has application as a planing tool for emergency response operations but its priority lies in understanding the behaviour of radionuclides in the tropical and sub-tropical environments and their effect on humankind

  12. Modeling and Simulation for Safeguards

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Swinhoe, Martyn T.

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of this talk is to give an overview of the role of modeling and simulation in Safeguards R and D and introduce you to (some of) the tools used. Some definitions are: (1) Modeling - the representation, often mathematical, of a process, concept, or operation of a system, often implemented by a computer program; (2) Simulation - the representation of the behavior or characteristics of one system through the use of another system, especially a computer program designed for the purpose; and (3) Safeguards - the timely detection of diversion of significant quantities of nuclear material. The role of modeling and simulation are: (1) Calculate amounts of material (plant modeling); (2) Calculate signatures of nuclear material etc. (source terms); and (3) Detector performance (radiation transport and detection). Plant modeling software (e.g. FACSIM) gives the flows and amount of material stored at all parts of the process. In safeguards this allow us to calculate the expected uncertainty of the mass and evaluate the expected MUF. We can determine the measurement accuracy required to achieve a certain performance.

  13. Modeling and Simulation of Nanoindentation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Sixie; Zhou, Caizhi

    2017-11-01

    Nanoindentation is a hardness test method applied to small volumes of material which can provide some unique effects and spark many related research activities. To fully understand the phenomena observed during nanoindentation tests, modeling and simulation methods have been developed to predict the mechanical response of materials during nanoindentation. However, challenges remain with those computational approaches, because of their length scale, predictive capability, and accuracy. This article reviews recent progress and challenges for modeling and simulation of nanoindentation, including an overview of molecular dynamics, the quasicontinuum method, discrete dislocation dynamics, and the crystal plasticity finite element method, and discusses how to integrate multiscale modeling approaches seamlessly with experimental studies to understand the length-scale effects and microstructure evolution during nanoindentation tests, creating a unique opportunity to establish new calibration procedures for the nanoindentation technique.

  14. Tropical-extratropical climate interaction as revealed in idealized coupled climate model experiments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yang, Haijun [Peking University, Department of Atmospheric Science and Laboratory for Severe Storm and Flood Disasters, School of Physics, Beijing (China); Liu, Zhengyu [University of Wisconsin-Madison, Center for Climatic Research and Department of the Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Madison, WI (United States)

    2005-06-01

    Tropical-extratropical climate interactions are studied by idealized experiments with a prescribed 2 C SST anomaly at different latitude bands in a coupled climate model. Instead of focusing on intrinsic climate variability, this work investigates the mean climate adjustment to remote external forcing. The extratropical impact on tropical climate can be as strong as the tropical impact on extratropical climate, with the remote sea surface temperature (SST) response being about half the magnitude of the imposed SST change in the forcing region. The equatorward impact of extratropical climate is accomplished by both the atmospheric bridge and the oceanic tunnel. About two-thirds of the tropical SST change comes from the atmospheric bridge, while the remaining one-third comes from the oceanic tunnel. The equatorial SST increase is first driven by the reduced latent heat flux and the weakened poleward surface Ekman transport, and then enhanced by the decrease in subtropical cells' strength and the equatorward subduction of warm anomalies. In contrast, the poleward impact of tropical climate is accomplished mainly by the atmospheric bridge, which is responsible for extratropical temperature changes in both the surface and subsurface. Sensitivity experiments also show the dominant role of the Southern Hemisphere oceans in the tropical climate change. (orig.)

  15. A Study on the Impact of Observation Assimilation on the Numerical Simulation of Tropical Cyclones JAL and THANE Using 3DVAR

    KAUST Repository

    Viswanadhapalli, Yesubabu; Srinivas, C. V.; Hariprasad, K. B R R; Baskaran, R.

    2013-01-01

    In this work, the impact of assimilation of conventional and satellite remote sensing observations (Oceansat-2 winds, MODIS temperature/humidity profiles) is studied on the simulation of two tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal region

  16. Assessment of Molecular Modeling & Simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2002-01-03

    This report reviews the development and applications of molecular and materials modeling in Europe and Japan in comparison to those in the United States. Topics covered include computational quantum chemistry, molecular simulations by molecular dynamics and Monte Carlo methods, mesoscale modeling of material domains, molecular-structure/macroscale property correlations like QSARs and QSPRs, and related information technologies like informatics and special-purpose molecular-modeling computers. The panel's findings include the following: The United States leads this field in many scientific areas. However, Canada has particular strengths in DFT methods and homogeneous catalysis; Europe in heterogeneous catalysis, mesoscale, and materials modeling; and Japan in materials modeling and special-purpose computing. Major government-industry initiatives are underway in Europe and Japan, notably in multi-scale materials modeling and in development of chemistry-capable ab-initio molecular dynamics codes.

  17. NRTA simulation by modeling PFPF

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Asano, Takashi; Fujiwara, Shigeo; Takahashi, Saburo; Shibata, Junichi; Totsu, Noriko

    2003-01-01

    In PFPF, NRTA system has been applied since 1991. It has been confirmed by evaluating facility material accountancy data provided from operator in each IIV that a significant MUF was not generated. In case of throughput of PFPF scale, MUF can be evaluated with a sufficient detection probability by the present NRTA evaluation manner. However, by increasing of throughput, the uncertainty of material accountancy will increase, and the detection probability will decline. The relationship between increasing of throughput and declining of detection probability and the maximum throughput upon application of following measures with a sufficient detection probability were evaluated by simulation of NRTA system. This simulation was performed by modeling of PFPF. Measures for increasing detection probability are shown as follows. Shortening of the evaluation interval. Segmentation of evaluation area. This report shows the results of these simulations. (author)

  18. Repository simulation model: Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1988-03-01

    This report documents the application of computer simulation for the design analysis of the nuclear waste repository's waste handling and packaging operations. The Salt Repository Simulation Model was used to evaluate design alternatives during the conceptual design phase of the Salt Repository Project. Code development and verification was performed by the Office of Nuclear Waste Isolation (ONWL). The focus of this report is to relate the experience gained during the development and application of the Salt Repository Simulation Model to future repository design phases. Design of the repository's waste handling and packaging systems will require sophisticated analysis tools to evaluate complex operational and logistical design alternatives. Selection of these design alternatives in the Advanced Conceptual Design (ACD) and License Application Design (LAD) phases must be supported by analysis to demonstrate that the repository design will cost effectively meet DOE's mandated emplacement schedule and that uncertainties in the performance of the repository's systems have been objectively evaluated. Computer simulation of repository operations will provide future repository designers with data and insights that no other analytical form of analysis can provide. 6 refs., 10 figs

  19. Modelling deep convection and its impacts on the tropical tropopause layer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. S. Hosking

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available The UK Met Office's Unified Model is used at a climate resolution (N216, ~0.83°×~0.56°, ~60 km to assess the impact of deep tropical convection on the structure of the tropical tropopause layer (TTL. We focus on the potential for rapid transport of short-lived ozone depleting species to the stratosphere by rapid convective uplift. The modelled horizontal structure of organised convection is shown to match closely with signatures found in the OLR satellite data. In the model, deep convective elevators rapidly lift air from 4–5 km up to 12–14 km. The influx of tropospheric air entering the TTL (11–12 km is similar for all tropical regions with most convection stopping below ~14 km. The tropical tropopause is coldest and driest between November and February, coinciding with the greatest upwelling over the tropical warm pool. As this deep convection is co-located with bromine-rich biogenic coastal emissions, this period and location could potentially be the preferential gateway for stratospheric bromine.

  20. Modeling carbon stocks in a secondary tropical dry forest in the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhaohua Dai; Richard A. Birdsey; Kristofer D. Johnson; Juan Manuel Dupuy; Jose Luis Hernandez-Stefanoni; Karen. Richardson

    2014-01-01

    The carbon balance of secondary dry tropical forests of Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula is sensitive to human and natural disturbances and climate change. The spatially explicit process model Forest-DeNitrification-DeComposition (DNDC) was used to estimate forest carbon dynamics in this region, including the effects of disturbance on carbon stocks. Model evaluation using...

  1. Tropical forest harvesting and taxation: a dynamic model of harvesting behavior under selective extraction systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert F. Conrad; Malcolm Gillis; D. Evan Mercer

    2005-01-01

    A dynamic model of selective harvesting in multi-species,multi-age tropical forests is developed. Forests are predicted to exhibit different optimal harvesting profiles depending on the nature of their joint cost functions and own or cross-species stock effects. The model is applied to the controversy about incentives produced by various taxes. The impacts of specific...

  2. Stratospheric dryness: model simulations and satellite observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Lelieveld

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available The mechanisms responsible for the extreme dryness of the stratosphere have been debated for decades. A key difficulty has been the lack of comprehensive models which are able to reproduce the observations. Here we examine results from the coupled lower-middle atmosphere chemistry general circulation model ECHAM5/MESSy1 together with satellite observations. Our model results match observed temperatures in the tropical lower stratosphere and realistically represent the seasonal and inter-annual variability of water vapor. The model reproduces the very low water vapor mixing ratios (below 2 ppmv periodically observed at the tropical tropopause near 100 hPa, as well as the characteristic tape recorder signal up to about 10 hPa, providing evidence that the dehydration mechanism is well-captured. Our results confirm that the entry of tropospheric air into the tropical stratosphere is forced by large-scale wave dynamics, whereas radiative cooling regionally decelerates upwelling and can even cause downwelling. Thin cirrus forms in the cold air above cumulonimbus clouds, and the associated sedimentation of ice particles between 100 and 200 hPa reduces water mass fluxes by nearly two orders of magnitude compared to air mass fluxes. Transport into the stratosphere is supported by regional net radiative heating, to a large extent in the outer tropics. During summer very deep monsoon convection over Southeast Asia, centered over Tibet, moistens the stratosphere.

  3. Simulating spin models on GPU

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weigel, Martin

    2011-09-01

    Over the last couple of years it has been realized that the vast computational power of graphics processing units (GPUs) could be harvested for purposes other than the video game industry. This power, which at least nominally exceeds that of current CPUs by large factors, results from the relative simplicity of the GPU architectures as compared to CPUs, combined with a large number of parallel processing units on a single chip. To benefit from this setup for general computing purposes, the problems at hand need to be prepared in a way to profit from the inherent parallelism and hierarchical structure of memory accesses. In this contribution I discuss the performance potential for simulating spin models, such as the Ising model, on GPU as compared to conventional simulations on CPU.

  4. Standard for Models and Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steele, Martin J.

    2016-01-01

    This NASA Technical Standard establishes uniform practices in modeling and simulation to ensure essential requirements are applied to the design, development, and use of models and simulations (MS), while ensuring acceptance criteria are defined by the program project and approved by the responsible Technical Authority. It also provides an approved set of requirements, recommendations, and criteria with which MS may be developed, accepted, and used in support of NASA activities. As the MS disciplines employed and application areas involved are broad, the common aspects of MS across all NASA activities are addressed. The discipline-specific details of a given MS should be obtained from relevant recommended practices. The primary purpose is to reduce the risks associated with MS-influenced decisions by ensuring the complete communication of the credibility of MS results.

  5. A sensitivity study of radiative-convective equilibrium in the tropics with a convection-resolving model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xu, K.M.; Randall, D.A.

    1999-10-01

    Statistical-equilibrium (SE) states of radiative-convective systems in tropical oceanic conditions are simulated with a cloud ensemble model (CEM) in this study. Typical large-scale conditions from the Marshall Islands and the eastern tropical Atlantic regions are used to drive the CEM. The simulated SE precipitable water, column temperature, and relative humidity are only slightly higher than those of the observed mean states in both regions when time-invariant large-scale total advective cooling and moistening effects are imposed from observations. They are much higher than the observed if time-invariant observed large-scale ascent is imposed for the Marshall Islands region (i.e., ignoring horizontal advective effects). Compared with results from two similar studies, this SE state is somewhere between the cold/dry regime by Sui et al. and the warm/humid regime by Grabowski et al. Temporal variations of the imposed large-scale vertical motion that allows for subsidence make the SE state colder and drier. It remains about the same, however, if the magnitude of the imposed large-scale vertical motion is halved. The SE state is also colder and drier if solar radiation is absent. In general, all the SE states show that wet columns are thermally more stable (unstable) and dry columns are thermally more unstable (stable) in the lower (upper) troposphere. Column budget analyses are performed to explore the differences among the simulations performed in this study and among the different studies.

  6. A Statistical Approach For Modeling Tropical Cyclones. Synthetic Hurricanes Generator Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pasqualini, Donatella [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2016-05-11

    This manuscript brie y describes a statistical ap- proach to generate synthetic tropical cyclone tracks to be used in risk evaluations. The Synthetic Hur- ricane Generator (SynHurG) model allows model- ing hurricane risk in the United States supporting decision makers and implementations of adaptation strategies to extreme weather. In the literature there are mainly two approaches to model hurricane hazard for risk prediction: deterministic-statistical approaches, where the storm key physical parameters are calculated using physi- cal complex climate models and the tracks are usually determined statistically from historical data; and sta- tistical approaches, where both variables and tracks are estimated stochastically using historical records. SynHurG falls in the second category adopting a pure stochastic approach.

  7. Simulating pesticide transport from a sloped tropical soil to an adjacent stream.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kahl, G; Ingwersen, J; Totrakool, S; Pansombat, K; Thavornyutikarn, P; Streck, T

    2010-01-01

    Preferential flow from stream banks is an important component of pesticide transport in the mountainous areas of northern Thailand. Models can help evaluate and interpret field data and help identify the most important transport processes. We developed a simple model to simulate the loss of pesticides from a sloped litchi (Litchi chinensis Sonn.) orchard to an adjacent stream. The water regime was modeled with a two-domain reservoir model, which accounts for rapid preferential flow simultaneously with slow flow processes in the soil matrix. Preferential flow is triggered when the topsoil matrix is saturated or the infiltration capacity exceeded. In addition, close to matrix saturation, rainfall events induce water release to the fractures and lead to desorption of pesticides from fracture walls and outflow to the stream. Pesticides undergo first order degradation and equilibrium sorption to soil matrix and fracture walls. The model was able to reproduce the dynamics of the discharge reasonably well (model efficiency [EF] = 0.56). The cumulative pesticide mass (EF = 0.91) and the pesticide concentration in the stream were slightly underestimated, but the deviation from measurement data is acceptable. Shape and timing of the simulated concentration peaks occurred in the same pattern as observed data. While the effect of surface runoff and preferential interflow on pesticide mass transport could not be absolutely clarified, according to our simulations, most concentration peaks in the stream are caused by preferential interflow pointing to the important role of this flow path in the hilly areas of northern Thailand.

  8. Polarized microwave forward model simulations for tropical storm ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    follow a modified gamma distribution in respect of the cloud liquid water and cloud ice water con- tent. ..... posed Indo-French low orbiting, climate research satellite Megha Tropiques .... to Estimate the Influence of Drop Size Distribution on.

  9. Earthworms and tree roots: A model study of the effect of preferential flow paths on runoff generation and groundwater recharge in steep, saprolitic, tropical lowland catchments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Yanyan; Ogden, Fred L.; Zhu, Jianting

    2017-07-01

    Preferential flow paths (PFPs) affect the hydrological response of humid tropical catchments but have not received sufficient attention. We consider PFPs created by tree roots and earthworms in a near-surface soil layer in steep, humid, tropical lowland catchments and hypothesize that observed hydrological behaviors can be better captured by reasonably considering PFPs in this layer. We test this hypothesis by evaluating the performance of four different physically based distributed model structures without and with PFPs in different configurations. Model structures are tested both quantitatively and qualitatively using hydrological, geophysical, and geochemical data both from the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute Agua Salud Project experimental catchment(s) in Central Panama and other sources in the literature. The performance of different model structures is evaluated using runoff Volume Error and three Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency measures against observed total runoff, stormflows, and base flows along with visual comparison of simulated and observed hydrographs. Two of the four proposed model structures which include both lateral and vertical PFPs are plausible, but the one with explicit simulation of PFPs performs the best. A small number of vertical PFPs that fully extend below the root zone allow the model to reasonably simulate deep groundwater recharge, which plays a crucial role in base flow generation. Results also show that the shallow lateral PFPs are the main contributor to the observed high flow characteristics. Their number and size distribution are found to be more important than the depth distribution. Our model results are corroborated by geochemical and geophysical observations.

  10. The NOW regional coupled model: Application to the tropical Indian Ocean climate and tropical cyclone activity

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Samson, G.; Masson, S.; Lengaigne, M.; Keerthi, M.G.; Vialard, J.; Pous, S.; Madec, G.; Jourdain, N.C.; Jullien, S.; Menkes, C.; Marchesiello, P.

    with the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the delayed basin-wide warming/cooling induced by the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The timing of IOD occurrence in the ~ model generally matches that of the observed events, confirming the influence of ENSO on the IOD...

  11. Linking Tropical Forest Function to Hydraulic Traits in a Size-Structured and Trait-Based Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christoffersen, B. O.; Gloor, M.; Fauset, S.; Fyllas, N.; Galbraith, D.; Baker, T. R.; Rowland, L.; Fisher, R.; Binks, O.; Sevanto, S.; Xu, C.; Jansen, S.; Choat, B.; Mencuccini, M.; McDowell, N. G.; Meir, P.

    2015-12-01

    A major weakness of forest ecosystem models is their inability to capture the diversity of responses to changes in water availability, severely hampering efforts to predict the fate of tropical forests under climate change. Such models often prescribe moisture sensitivity using heuristic response functions that are uniform across all individuals and lack important knowledge about trade-offs in hydraulic traits. We address this weakness by implementing a process representation of plant hydraulics into an individual- and trait-based model (Trait Forest Simulator; TFS) intended for application at discrete sites where community-level distributions of stem and leaf trait spectra (wood density, leaf mass per area, leaf nitrogen and phosphorus content) are known. The model represents a trade-off in the safety and efficiency of water conduction in xylem tissue through hydraulic traits, while accounting for the counteracting effects of increasing hydraulic path length and xylem conduit taper on whole-plant hydraulic resistance with increasing tree size. Using existing trait databases and additional meta-analyses from the rich literature on tropical tree ecophysiology, we obtained all necessary hydraulic parameters associated with xylem conductivity, vulnerability curves, pressure-volume curves, and hydraulic architecture (e.g., leaf-to-sapwood area ratios) as a function of the aforementioned traits and tree size. Incorporating these relationships in the model greatly improved the diversity of tree response to seasonal changes in water availability as well as in response to drought, as determined by comparison with field observations and experiments. Importantly, this individual- and trait-based framework provides a testbed for identifying both critical processes and functional traits needed for inclusion in coarse-scale Dynamic Global Vegetation Models, which will lead to reduced uncertainty in the future state of tropical forests.

  12. The design and application of a radiological consequence model for tropical and subtropical regions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Domel, R.U.; Harris, F.F.; Crawford, J.

    1998-01-01

    The post Chernobyl era has seen the development of a plethora of radiological consequence models. The information used in these models pertains mostly to temperate and cold climate data, with these data mostly being hard-wired into the body of the model. At the Australian Nuclear Science and Technology Organisation (ANSTO), a model is being developed with a user-friendly interface which will assess the radiological consequences, after an incident, in tropical and sub-tropical climates. The model combines specific regional data (South East Asia) with transfer parameters (soil to plant, plant to animal) obtained for tropical and sub-tropical regions. Flexibility has been incorporated into the the design of the model to allow application in other regions. Where the relevant data are not available, default temperate data are used whilst specific research will be initiated to determine the information required. A Geographic Information System (GIS) is used for the display of input and output data allowing quick access to not only the results but also to the underlying assumptions

  13. Collaborative Research: Atlantic Ocean Tropical/Subtropical Processes from Seasonal to Decadal Time Scales: Model/Data, Model/Model Comparison and Model/Data Synthesis Through Assimilation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malannotte-Rizzoli, Paola

    2003-01-01

    The effort of this first year of research has been focused on the assimilation of TOPEX/Poseidon altimetric data into a primitive equation model of the Atlantic tropical/subtropical circulation. A reduced-rank, stationary Kalman filter has been constructed to assimilate the altimetric sea surface height anomaly (SHA) into the model. The goal is to assess how the inter-hemispheric transports between the Atlantic subtropics and tropics are affected by the assimilation and how the subsurface thermocline structure , and its variability ,is dynamically constrained by the SHA. The model is a reduced-gravity primitive equation GCM of the upper Atlantic Ocean between 30 S and 30 N. The assimilation scheme is an approximation to the extended Kalman filter in which the error covariances of the state estimates are calculated only in a reduced- dimension subspace. The subspace is defined by the leading empirical orthogonal functions calculated from an unconstrained model calculation. Both an identical twin experiment using simulated SHA observations and assimilation of the real TOPEX data were performed. Results from the twin experiments demonstrate the ability of the method to constrain the ocean circulation and the subsurface temperature structure. The impact on the subsurface temperature structure of TOPEX assimilation was assessed using data from expandable bathythermographs. This showed a substantial improvement in the estimated temperature variability only within 13 degrees in latitude around the equator. The impact of TOPEX SHA assimilation on zonally integrated meridional transport across different latitudes was also estimated. Again within 13 degrees from the equator both the mean amplitude and interannual variability of the surface and subsurface transports were significantly enhanced, while the transports were insensitive to the assimilation in the subtropics.

  14. Verifying and Validating Simulation Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hemez, Francois M. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2015-02-23

    This presentation is a high-level discussion of the Verification and Validation (V&V) of computational models. Definitions of V&V are given to emphasize that “validation” is never performed in a vacuum; it accounts, instead, for the current state-of-knowledge in the discipline considered. In particular comparisons between physical measurements and numerical predictions should account for their respective sources of uncertainty. The differences between error (bias), aleatoric uncertainty (randomness) and epistemic uncertainty (ignorance, lack-of- knowledge) are briefly discussed. Four types of uncertainty in physics and engineering are discussed: 1) experimental variability, 2) variability and randomness, 3) numerical uncertainty and 4) model-form uncertainty. Statistical sampling methods are available to propagate, and analyze, variability and randomness. Numerical uncertainty originates from the truncation error introduced by the discretization of partial differential equations in time and space. Model-form uncertainty is introduced by assumptions often formulated to render a complex problem more tractable and amenable to modeling and simulation. The discussion concludes with high-level guidance to assess the “credibility” of numerical simulations, which stems from the level of rigor with which these various sources of uncertainty are assessed and quantified.

  15. Advances in Intelligent Modelling and Simulation Simulation Tools and Applications

    CERN Document Server

    Oplatková, Zuzana; Carvalho, Marco; Kisiel-Dorohinicki, Marek

    2012-01-01

    The human capacity to abstract complex systems and phenomena into simplified models has played a critical role in the rapid evolution of our modern industrial processes and scientific research. As a science and an art, Modelling and Simulation have been one of the core enablers of this remarkable human trace, and have become a topic of great importance for researchers and practitioners. This book was created to compile some of the most recent concepts, advances, challenges and ideas associated with Intelligent Modelling and Simulation frameworks, tools and applications. The first chapter discusses the important aspects of a human interaction and the correct interpretation of results during simulations. The second chapter gets to the heart of the analysis of entrepreneurship by means of agent-based modelling and simulations. The following three chapters bring together the central theme of simulation frameworks, first describing an agent-based simulation framework, then a simulator for electrical machines, and...

  16. MODELLING, SIMULATING AND OPTIMIZING BOILERS

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Kim; Condra, Thomas Joseph; Houbak, Niels

    2004-01-01

    In the present work a framework for optimizing the design of boilers for dynamic operation has been developed. A cost function to be minimized during the optimization has been formulated and for the present design variables related to the Boiler Volume and the Boiler load Gradient (i.e. ring rate...... on the boiler) have been dened. Furthermore a number of constraints related to: minimum and maximum boiler load gradient, minimum boiler size, Shrinking and Swelling and Steam Space Load have been dened. For dening the constraints related to the required boiler volume a dynamic model for simulating the boiler...... performance has been developed. Outputs from the simulations are shrinking and swelling of water level in the drum during for example a start-up of the boiler, these gures combined with the requirements with respect to allowable water level uctuations in the drum denes the requirements with respect to drum...

  17. Model fit versus biological relevance: Evaluating photosynthesis-temperature models for three tropical seagrass species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adams, Matthew P; Collier, Catherine J; Uthicke, Sven; Ow, Yan X; Langlois, Lucas; O'Brien, Katherine R

    2017-01-04

    When several models can describe a biological process, the equation that best fits the data is typically considered the best. However, models are most useful when they also possess biologically-meaningful parameters. In particular, model parameters should be stable, physically interpretable, and transferable to other contexts, e.g. for direct indication of system state, or usage in other model types. As an example of implementing these recommended requirements for model parameters, we evaluated twelve published empirical models for temperature-dependent tropical seagrass photosynthesis, based on two criteria: (1) goodness of fit, and (2) how easily biologically-meaningful parameters can be obtained. All models were formulated in terms of parameters characterising the thermal optimum (T opt ) for maximum photosynthetic rate (P max ). These parameters indicate the upper thermal limits of seagrass photosynthetic capacity, and hence can be used to assess the vulnerability of seagrass to temperature change. Our study exemplifies an approach to model selection which optimises the usefulness of empirical models for both modellers and ecologists alike.

  18. Model fit versus biological relevance: Evaluating photosynthesis-temperature models for three tropical seagrass species

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adams, Matthew P.; Collier, Catherine J.; Uthicke, Sven; Ow, Yan X.; Langlois, Lucas; O'Brien, Katherine R.

    2017-01-01

    When several models can describe a biological process, the equation that best fits the data is typically considered the best. However, models are most useful when they also possess biologically-meaningful parameters. In particular, model parameters should be stable, physically interpretable, and transferable to other contexts, e.g. for direct indication of system state, or usage in other model types. As an example of implementing these recommended requirements for model parameters, we evaluated twelve published empirical models for temperature-dependent tropical seagrass photosynthesis, based on two criteria: (1) goodness of fit, and (2) how easily biologically-meaningful parameters can be obtained. All models were formulated in terms of parameters characterising the thermal optimum (Topt) for maximum photosynthetic rate (Pmax). These parameters indicate the upper thermal limits of seagrass photosynthetic capacity, and hence can be used to assess the vulnerability of seagrass to temperature change. Our study exemplifies an approach to model selection which optimises the usefulness of empirical models for both modellers and ecologists alike.

  19. SEMI Modeling and Simulation Roadmap

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hermina, W.L.

    2000-10-02

    With the exponential growth in the power of computing hardware and software, modeling and simulation is becoming a key enabler for the rapid design of reliable Microsystems. One vision of the future microsystem design process would include the following primary software capabilities: (1) The development of 3D part design, through standard CAD packages, with automatic design rule checks that guarantee the manufacturability and performance of the microsystem. (2) Automatic mesh generation, for 3D parts as manufactured, that permits computational simulation of the process steps, and the performance and reliability analysis for the final microsystem. (3) Computer generated 2D layouts for process steps that utilize detailed process models to generate the layout and process parameter recipe required to achieve the desired 3D part. (4) Science-based computational tools that can simulate the process physics, and the coupled thermal, fluid, structural, solid mechanics, electromagnetic and material response governing the performance and reliability of the microsystem. (5) Visualization software that permits the rapid visualization of 3D parts including cross-sectional maps, performance and reliability analysis results, and process simulation results. In addition to these desired software capabilities, a desired computing infrastructure would include massively parallel computers that enable rapid high-fidelity analysis, coupled with networked compute servers that permit computing at a distance. We now discuss the individual computational components that are required to achieve this vision. There are three primary areas of focus: design capabilities, science-based capabilities and computing infrastructure. Within each of these areas, there are several key capability requirements.

  20. Calibration of the century, apsim and ndicea models of decomposition and n mineralization of plant residues in the humid tropics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandre Ferreira do Nascimento

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to calibrate the CENTURY, APSIM and NDICEA simulation models for estimating decomposition and N mineralization rates of plant organic materials (Arachis pintoi, Calopogonium mucunoides, Stizolobium aterrimum, Stylosanthes guyanensis for 360 days in the Atlantic rainforest bioma of Brazil. The models´ default settings overestimated the decomposition and N-mineralization of plant residues, underlining the fact that the models must be calibrated for use under tropical conditions. For example, the APSIM model simulated the decomposition of the Stizolobium aterrimum and Calopogonium mucunoides residues with an error rate of 37.62 and 48.23 %, respectively, by comparison with the observed data, and was the least accurate model in the absence of calibration. At the default settings, the NDICEA model produced an error rate of 10.46 and 14.46 % and the CENTURY model, 21.42 and 31.84 %, respectively, for Stizolobium aterrimum and Calopogonium mucunoides residue decomposition. After calibration, the models showed a high level of accuracy in estimating decomposition and N- mineralization, with an error rate of less than 20 %. The calibrated NDICEA model showed the highest level of accuracy, followed by the APSIM and CENTURY. All models performed poorly in the first few months of decomposition and N-mineralization, indicating the need of an additional parameter for initial microorganism growth on the residues that would take the effect of leaching due to rainfall into account.

  1. Photovoltaic array performance simulation models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Menicucci, D. F.

    1986-09-15

    The experience of the solar industry confirms that, despite recent cost reductions, the profitability of photovoltaic (PV) systems is often marginal and the configuration and sizing of a system is a critical problem for the design engineer. Construction and evaluation of experimental systems are expensive and seldom justifiable. A mathematical model or computer-simulation program is a desirable alternative, provided reliable results can be obtained. Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque (SNLA), has been studying PV-system modeling techniques in an effort to develop an effective tool to be used by engineers and architects in the design of cost-effective PV systems. This paper reviews two of the sources of error found in previous PV modeling programs, presents the remedies developed to correct these errors, and describes a new program that incorporates these improvements.

  2. MJO-Related Tropical Convection Anomalies Lead to More Accurate Stratospheric Vortex Variability in Subseasonal Forecast Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garfinkel, C I; Schwartz, C

    2017-10-16

    The effect of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) on the Northern Hemisphere wintertime stratospheric polar vortex in the period preceding stratospheric sudden warmings is evaluated in operational subseasonal forecasting models. Reforecasts which simulate stronger MJO-related convection in the Tropical West Pacific also simulate enhanced heat flux in the lowermost stratosphere and a more realistic vortex evolution. The time scale on which vortex predictability is enhanced lies between 2 and 4 weeks for nearly all cases. Those stratospheric sudden warmings that were preceded by a strong MJO event are more predictable at ∼20 day leads than stratospheric sudden warmings not preceded by a MJO event. Hence, knowledge of the MJO can contribute to enhanced predictability, at least in a probabilistic sense, of the Northern Hemisphere polar stratosphere.

  3. Colour Model for Outdoor Machine Vision for Tropical Regions and its Comparison with the CIE Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sahragard, Nasrolah; Ramli, Abdul Rahman B [Institute of Advanced Technology, Universiti Putra Malaysia 43400 Serdang, Selangor (Malaysia); Marhaban, Mohammad Hamiruce [Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Universiti Putra Malaysia 43400 Serdang, Selangor (Malaysia); Mansor, Shattri B, E-mail: sahragard@yahoo.com [Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Universiti Putra Malaysia 43400 Serdang, Selangor (Malaysia)

    2011-02-15

    Accurate modeling of daylight and surface reflectance are very useful for most outdoor machine vision applications specifically those which are based on color recognition. Existing daylight CIE model has drawbacks that limit its ability to predict the color of incident light. These limitations include lack of considering ambient light, effects of light reflected off the ground, and context specific information. Previously developed color model is only tested for a few geographical places in North America and its accountability is under question for other places in the world. Besides, existing surface reflectance models are not easily applied to outdoor images. A reflectance model with combined diffuse and specular reflection in normalized HSV color space could be used to predict color. In this paper, a new daylight color model showing the color of daylight for a broad range of sky conditions is developed which will suit weather conditions of tropical places such as Malaysia. A comparison of this daylight color model and daylight CIE model will be discussed. The colors of matte and specular surfaces have been estimated by use of the developed color model and surface reflection function in this paper. The results are shown to be highly reliable.

  4. Colour Model for Outdoor Machine Vision for Tropical Regions and its Comparison with the CIE Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahragard, Nasrolah; Ramli, Abdul Rahman B.; Hamiruce Marhaban, Mohammad; Mansor, Shattri B.

    2011-02-01

    Accurate modeling of daylight and surface reflectance are very useful for most outdoor machine vision applications specifically those which are based on color recognition. Existing daylight CIE model has drawbacks that limit its ability to predict the color of incident light. These limitations include lack of considering ambient light, effects of light reflected off the ground, and context specific information. Previously developed color model is only tested for a few geographical places in North America and its accountability is under question for other places in the world. Besides, existing surface reflectance models are not easily applied to outdoor images. A reflectance model with combined diffuse and specular reflection in normalized HSV color space could be used to predict color. In this paper, a new daylight color model showing the color of daylight for a broad range of sky conditions is developed which will suit weather conditions of tropical places such as Malaysia. A comparison of this daylight color model and daylight CIE model will be discussed. The colors of matte and specular surfaces have been estimated by use of the developed color model and surface reflection function in this paper. The results are shown to be highly reliable.

  5. Colour Model for Outdoor Machine Vision for Tropical Regions and its Comparison with the CIE Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sahragard, Nasrolah; Ramli, Abdul Rahman B; Marhaban, Mohammad Hamiruce; Mansor, Shattri B

    2011-01-01

    Accurate modeling of daylight and surface reflectance are very useful for most outdoor machine vision applications specifically those which are based on color recognition. Existing daylight CIE model has drawbacks that limit its ability to predict the color of incident light. These limitations include lack of considering ambient light, effects of light reflected off the ground, and context specific information. Previously developed color model is only tested for a few geographical places in North America and its accountability is under question for other places in the world. Besides, existing surface reflectance models are not easily applied to outdoor images. A reflectance model with combined diffuse and specular reflection in normalized HSV color space could be used to predict color. In this paper, a new daylight color model showing the color of daylight for a broad range of sky conditions is developed which will suit weather conditions of tropical places such as Malaysia. A comparison of this daylight color model and daylight CIE model will be discussed. The colors of matte and specular surfaces have been estimated by use of the developed color model and surface reflection function in this paper. The results are shown to be highly reliable.

  6. Simulated annealing model of acupuncture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shang, Charles; Szu, Harold

    2015-05-01

    The growth control singularity model suggests that acupuncture points (acupoints) originate from organizers in embryogenesis. Organizers are singular points in growth control. Acupuncture can cause perturbation of a system with effects similar to simulated annealing. In clinical trial, the goal of a treatment is to relieve certain disorder which corresponds to reaching certain local optimum in simulated annealing. The self-organizing effect of the system is limited and related to the person's general health and age. Perturbation at acupoints can lead a stronger local excitation (analogous to higher annealing temperature) compared to perturbation at non-singular points (placebo control points). Such difference diminishes as the number of perturbed points increases due to the wider distribution of the limited self-organizing activity. This model explains the following facts from systematic reviews of acupuncture trials: 1. Properly chosen single acupoint treatment for certain disorder can lead to highly repeatable efficacy above placebo 2. When multiple acupoints are used, the result can be highly repeatable if the patients are relatively healthy and young but are usually mixed if the patients are old, frail and have multiple disorders at the same time as the number of local optima or comorbidities increases. 3. As number of acupoints used increases, the efficacy difference between sham and real acupuncture often diminishes. It predicted that the efficacy of acupuncture is negatively correlated to the disease chronicity, severity and patient's age. This is the first biological - physical model of acupuncture which can predict and guide clinical acupuncture research.

  7. High resolution model projections of tropical cyclone landfall over southern Africa under enhanced anthropogenic forcing

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Malherbe, J

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available , no such change has been noted when all closed warm-core low pressure systems are considered. Several studies have through the use of coupled global circulation models globally reported a projected decrease in the number of tropical cyclones expected under...

  8. Applying Climatically Associated Species Pools to modelling compositional change in tropical montane forests

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Golicher, J.D.; Cayuela, L.; Alkemade, J.R.M.; González-Espinosa, M.; Ramírez-Marcial, N.

    2008-01-01

    Aim Predictive species distribution modelling is a useful tool for extracting the maximum amount of information from biological collections and floristic inventories. However, in many tropical regions records are only available from a small number of sites. This can limit the application of

  9. Assessing the hydrological impacts of Tropical Cyclones on the Carolinas: An observational and modeling based investigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leeper, R. D.; Prat, O. P.; Blanton, B. O.

    2012-12-01

    During the warm season, the Carolinas are particularly prone to tropical cyclone (TC) activity and can be impacted in many different ways depending on storm track. The coasts of the Carolinas are the most vulnerable areas, but particular situations (Frances and Ivan 2004) affected communities far from the coasts (Prat and Nelson 2012). Regardless of where landfall occurs, TCs are often associated with intense precipitation and strong winds triggering a variety of natural hazards (storm surge, flooding, landslides). The assessment of societal and environmental impacts of TCs requires a suite of observations. The scarcity of station coverage, sensor limitations, and rainfall retrieval uncertainties are issues limiting the ability to assess accurately the impact of extreme precipitation events. Therefore, numerical models, such as the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF), can be valuable tools to investigate those impacts at regional and local scales and bridge the gap between observations. The goal of this study is to investigate the impact of TCs across the Carolinas using both observational and modeling technologies, and explore the usefulness of numerical methods in data-scarce regions. To fully assess TC impacts on the Carolinas inhabitants, storms impacting both coastal and inner communities will be selected and high-resolution WRF ensemble simulations generated from a suite of physic schemes for each TC to investigate their impact at finer scales. The ensemble member performance will be evaluated with respect to ground-based and satellite observations. Furthermore, results from the high-resolution WRF simulations, including the average wind-speed and the sea level pressure, will be used with the ADCIRC storm-surge and wave-model (Westerink et al, 2008) to simulate storm surge and waves along the Carolinas coast for TCs travelling along the coast or making landfall. This work aims to provide an assessment of the various types of impacts TCs can have

  10. Operations planning simulation: Model study

    Science.gov (United States)

    1974-01-01

    The use of simulation modeling for the identification of system sensitivities to internal and external forces and variables is discussed. The technique provides a means of exploring alternate system procedures and processes, so that these alternatives may be considered on a mutually comparative basis permitting the selection of a mode or modes of operation which have potential advantages to the system user and the operator. These advantages are measurements is system efficiency are: (1) the ability to meet specific schedules for operations, mission or mission readiness requirements or performance standards and (2) to accomplish the objectives within cost effective limits.

  11. A parabolic model of drag coefficient for storm surge simulation in the South China Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Shiqiu; Li, Yineng

    2015-01-01

    Drag coefficient (Cd) is an essential metric in the calculation of momentum exchange over the air-sea interface and thus has large impacts on the simulation or forecast of the upper ocean state associated with sea surface winds such as storm surges. Generally, Cd is a function of wind speed. However, the exact relationship between Cd and wind speed is still in dispute, and the widely-used formula that is a linear function of wind speed in an ocean model could lead to large bias at high wind speed. Here we establish a parabolic model of Cd based on storm surge observations and simulation in the South China Sea (SCS) through a number of tropical cyclone cases. Simulation of storm surges for independent Tropical cyclones (TCs) cases indicates that the new parabolic model of Cd outperforms traditional linear models. PMID:26499262

  12. A parabolic model of drag coefficient for storm surge simulation in the South China Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Shiqiu; Li, Yineng

    2015-10-01

    Drag coefficient (Cd) is an essential metric in the calculation of momentum exchange over the air-sea interface and thus has large impacts on the simulation or forecast of the upper ocean state associated with sea surface winds such as storm surges. Generally, Cd is a function of wind speed. However, the exact relationship between Cd and wind speed is still in dispute, and the widely-used formula that is a linear function of wind speed in an ocean model could lead to large bias at high wind speed. Here we establish a parabolic model of Cd based on storm surge observations and simulation in the South China Sea (SCS) through a number of tropical cyclone cases. Simulation of storm surges for independent Tropical cyclones (TCs) cases indicates that the new parabolic model of Cd outperforms traditional linear models.

  13. Impulse pumping modelling and simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pierre, B; Gudmundsson, J S

    2010-01-01

    Impulse pumping is a new pumping method based on propagation of pressure waves. Of particular interest is the application of impulse pumping to artificial lift situations, where fluid is transported from wellbore to wellhead using pressure waves generated at wellhead. The motor driven element of an impulse pumping apparatus is therefore located at wellhead and can be separated from the flowline. Thus operation and maintenance of an impulse pump are facilitated. The paper describes the different elements of an impulse pumping apparatus, reviews the physical principles and details the modelling of the novel pumping method. Results from numerical simulations of propagation of pressure waves in water-filled pipelines are then presented for illustrating impulse pumping physical principles, and validating the described modelling with experimental data.

  14. Predicting Tropical Cyclogenesis with a Global Mesoscale Model: Preliminary Results with Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Nargis (2008)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, B.; Tao, W.; Atlas, R.

    2008-12-01

    Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Nargis, the deadliest named tropical cyclone (TC) in the North Indian Ocean Basin, devastated Burma (Myanmar) in May 2008, causing tremendous damage and numerous fatalities. An increased lead time in the prediction of TC Nargis would have increased the warning time and may therefore have saved lives and reduced economic damage. Recent advances in high-resolution global models and supercomputers have shown the potential for improving TC track and intensity forecasts, presumably by improving multi-scale simulations. The key but challenging questions to be answered include: (1) if and how realistic, in terms of timing, location and TC general structure, the global mesoscale model (GMM) can simulate TC genesis and (2) under what conditions can the model extend the lead time of TC genesis forecasts. In this study, we focus on genesis prediction for TCs in the Indian Ocean with the GMM. Preliminary real-data simulations show that the initial formation and intensity variations of TC Nargis can be realistically predicted at a lead time of up to 5 days. These simulations also suggest that the accurate representations of a westerly wind burst (WWB) and an equatorial trough, associated with monsoon circulations and/or a Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), are important for predicting the formation of this kind of TC. In addition to the WWB and equatorial trough, other favorable environmental conditions will be examined, which include enhanced monsoonal circulation, upper-level outflow, low- and middle-level moistening, and surface fluxes.

  15. Simulation model of a PWR power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Larsen, N.

    1987-03-01

    A simulation model of a hypothetical PWR power plant is described. A large number of disturbances and failures in plant function can be simulated. The model is written as seven modules to the modular simulation system for continuous processes DYSIM and serves also as a user example of this system. The model runs in Fortran 77 on the IBM-PC-AT. (author)

  16. Analysis of precipitation teleconnections in CMIP models as a measure of model fidelity in simulating precipitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langenbrunner, B.; Neelin, J.; Meyerson, J.

    2011-12-01

    The accurate representation of precipitation is a recurring issue in global climate models, especially in the tropics. Poor skill in modeling the variability and climate teleconnections associated with El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) also persisted in the latest Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) campaigns. Observed ENSO precipitation teleconnections provide a standard by which we can judge a given model's ability to reproduce precipitation and dynamic feedback processes originating in the tropical Pacific. Using CMIP3 Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) runs as a baseline, we compare precipitation teleconnections between models and observations, and we evaluate these results against available CMIP5 historical and AMIP runs. Using AMIP simulations restricts evaluation to the atmospheric response, as sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in AMIP are prescribed by observations. We use a rank correlation between ENSO SST indices and precipitation to define teleconnections, since this method is robust to outliers and appropriate for non-Gaussian data. Spatial correlations of the modeled and observed teleconnections are then evaluated. We look at these correlations in regions of strong precipitation teleconnections, including equatorial S. America, the "horseshoe" region in the western tropical Pacific, and southern N. America. For each region and season, we create a "normalized projection" of a given model's teleconnection pattern onto that of the observations, a metric that assesses the quality of regional pattern simulations while rewarding signals of correct sign over the region. Comparing this to an area-averaged (i.e., more generous) metric suggests models do better when restrictions on exact spatial dependence are loosened and conservation constraints apply. Model fidelity in regional measures remains far from perfect, suggesting intrinsic issues with the models' regional sensitivities in moist processes.

  17. Does internal variability change in response to global warming? A large ensemble modelling study of tropical rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milinski, S.; Bader, J.; Jungclaus, J. H.; Marotzke, J.

    2017-12-01

    There is some consensus on mean state changes of rainfall under global warming; changes of the internal variability, on the other hand, are more difficult to analyse and have not been discussed as much despite their importance for understanding changes in extreme events, such as droughts or floodings. We analyse changes in the rainfall variability in the tropical Atlantic region. We use a 100-member ensemble of historical (1850-2005) model simulations with the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Earth System Model (MPI-ESM1) to identify changes of internal rainfall variability. To investigate the effects of global warming on the internal variability, we employ an additional ensemble of model simulations with stronger external forcing (1% CO2-increase per year, same integration length as the historical simulations) with 68 ensemble members. The focus of our study is on the oceanic Atlantic ITCZ. We find that the internal variability of rainfall over the tropical Atlantic does change due to global warming and that these changes in variability are larger than changes in the mean state in some regions. From splitting the total variance into patterns of variability, we see that the variability on the southern flank of the ITCZ becomes more dominant, i.e. explaining a larger fraction of the total variance in a warmer climate. In agreement with previous studies, we find that changes in the mean state show an increase and narrowing of the ITCZ. The large ensembles allow us to do a statistically robust differentiation between the changes in variability that can be explained by internal variability and those that can be attributed to the external forcing. Furthermore, we argue that internal variability in a transient climate is only well defined in the ensemble domain and not in the temporal domain, which requires the use of a large ensemble.

  18. The transparency, reliability and utility of tropical rainforest land-use and land-cover change models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosa, Isabel M D; Ahmed, Sadia E; Ewers, Robert M

    2014-06-01

    Land-use and land-cover (LULC) change is one of the largest drivers of biodiversity loss and carbon emissions globally. We use the tropical rainforests of the Amazon, the Congo basin and South-East Asia as a case study to investigate spatial predictive models of LULC change. Current predictions differ in their modelling approaches, are highly variable and often poorly validated. We carried out a quantitative review of 48 modelling methodologies, considering model spatio-temporal scales, inputs, calibration and validation methods. In addition, we requested model outputs from each of the models reviewed and carried out a quantitative assessment of model performance for tropical LULC predictions in the Brazilian Amazon. We highlight existing shortfalls in the discipline and uncover three key points that need addressing to improve the transparency, reliability and utility of tropical LULC change models: (1) a lack of openness with regard to describing and making available the model inputs and model code; (2) the difficulties of conducting appropriate model validations; and (3) the difficulty that users of tropical LULC models face in obtaining the model predictions to help inform their own analyses and policy decisions. We further draw comparisons between tropical LULC change models in the tropics and the modelling approaches and paradigms in other disciplines, and suggest that recent changes in the climate change and species distribution modelling communities may provide a pathway that tropical LULC change modellers may emulate to further improve the discipline. Climate change models have exerted considerable influence over public perceptions of climate change and now impact policy decisions at all political levels. We suggest that tropical LULC change models have an equally high potential to influence public opinion and impact the development of land-use policies based on plausible future scenarios, but, to do that reliably may require further improvements in the

  19. Carbon budget of tropical forests in Southeast Asia and the effects of deforestation: an approach using a process-based model and field measurements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Adachi

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available More reliable estimates of the carbon (C stock within forest ecosystems and C emission induced by deforestation are urgently needed to mitigate the effects of emissions on climate change. A process-based terrestrial biogeochemical model (VISIT was applied to tropical primary forests of two types (a seasonal dry forest in Thailand and a rainforest in Malaysia and one agro-forest (an oil palm plantation in Malaysia to estimate the C budget of tropical ecosystems in Southeast Asia, including the impacts of land-use conversion. The observed aboveground biomass in the seasonal dry tropical forest in Thailand (226.3 t C ha−1 and the rainforest in Malaysia (201.5 t C ha−1 indicate that tropical forests of Southeast Asia are among the most C-abundant ecosystems in the world. The model simulation results in rainforests were consistent with field data, except for the NEP, however, the VISIT model tended to underestimate C budget and stock in the seasonal dry tropical forest. The gross primary production (GPP based on field observations ranged from 32.0 to 39.6 t C ha−1 yr−1 in the two primary forests, whereas the model slightly underestimated GPP (26.5–34.5 t C ha−1 yr−1. The VISIT model appropriately captured the impacts of disturbances such as deforestation and land-use conversions on the C budget. Results of sensitivity analysis showed that the proportion of remaining residual debris was a key parameter determining the soil C budget after the deforestation event. According to the model simulation, the total C stock (total biomass and soil C of the oil palm plantation was about 35% of the rainforest's C stock at 30 yr following initiation of the plantation. However, there were few field data of C budget and stock, especially in oil palm plantation. The C budget of each ecosystem must be evaluated over the long term using both the model simulations and observations to

  20. The tropical water and energy cycles in a cumulus ensemble model. Part 1: Equilibrium climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sui, C. H.; Lau, K. M.; Tao, W. K.; Simpson, J.

    1994-01-01

    A cumulus ensemble model is used to study the tropical water and energy cycles and their role in the climate system. The model includes cloud dynamics, radiative processes, and microphysics that incorporate all important production and conversion processes among water vapor and five species of hydrometeors. Radiative transfer in clouds is parameterized based on cloud contents and size distributions of each bulk hydrometeor. Several model integrations have been carried out under a variety of imposed boundary and large-scale conditions. In Part 1 of this paper, the primary focus is on the water and heat budgets of the control experiment, which is designed to simulate the convective - radiative equilibrium response of the model to an imposed vertical velocity and a fixed sea surface temperature at 28 C. The simulated atmosphere is conditionally unstable below the freezing level and close to neutral above the freezing level. The equilibrium water budget shows that the total moisture source, M(sub s), which is contributed by surface evaporation (0.24 M(sub s)) and the large-scale advection (0.76 M(sub s)), all converts to mean surface precipitation bar-P(sub s). Most of M(sub s) is transported verticaly in convective regions where much of the condensate is generated and falls to surface (0.68 bar-P(sub s)). The remaining condensate detrains at a rate of 0.48 bar-P(sub s) and constitutes 65% of the source for stratiform clouds above the melting level. The upper-level stratiform cloud dissipates into clear environment at a rate of 0.14 bar-P(sub s), which is a significant moisture source comparable to the detrained water vapor (0.15 bar-P(sub s)) to the upper troposphere from convective clouds. In the lower troposphere, stratiform clouds evaporate at a rate of 0.41 bar-P(sub s), which is a more dominant moisture source than surface evaporation (0.22 bar-P(sub s)). The precipitation falling to the surface in the stratiform region is about 0.32 bar-P(sub s). The associated

  1. Galaxy Alignments: Theory, Modelling & Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiessling, Alina; Cacciato, Marcello; Joachimi, Benjamin; Kirk, Donnacha; Kitching, Thomas D.; Leonard, Adrienne; Mandelbaum, Rachel; Schäfer, Björn Malte; Sifón, Cristóbal; Brown, Michael L.; Rassat, Anais

    2015-11-01

    The shapes of galaxies are not randomly oriented on the sky. During the galaxy formation and evolution process, environment has a strong influence, as tidal gravitational fields in the large-scale structure tend to align nearby galaxies. Additionally, events such as galaxy mergers affect the relative alignments of both the shapes and angular momenta of galaxies throughout their history. These "intrinsic galaxy alignments" are known to exist, but are still poorly understood. This review will offer a pedagogical introduction to the current theories that describe intrinsic galaxy alignments, including the apparent difference in intrinsic alignment between early- and late-type galaxies and the latest efforts to model them analytically. It will then describe the ongoing efforts to simulate intrinsic alignments using both N-body and hydrodynamic simulations. Due to the relative youth of this field, there is still much to be done to understand intrinsic galaxy alignments and this review summarises the current state of the field, providing a solid basis for future work.

  2. Stem biomass and volume models of selected tropical tree species ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Stem biomass and stem volume were modelled as a function of diameter (at breast height; Dbh) and stem height (height to the crown base). Logarithmic models are presented that utilise Dbh and height data to predict tree component biomass and stem volumes. Alternative models are given that afford prediction based on ...

  3. An effort to improve track and intensity prediction of tropical cyclones through vortex initialization in NCUM-global model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Vivek; Routray, A.; Mallick, Swapan; George, John P.; Rajagopal, E. N.

    2016-05-01

    Tropical cyclones (TCs) have strong impact on socio-economic conditions of the countries like India, Bangladesh and Myanmar owing to its awful devastating power. This brings in the need of precise forecasting system to predict the tracks and intensities of TCs accurately well in advance. However, it has been a great challenge for major operational meteorological centers over the years. Genesis of TCs over data sparse warm Tropical Ocean adds more difficulty to this. Weak and misplaced vortices at initial time are one of the prime sources of track and intensity errors in the Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models. Many previous studies have reported the forecast skill of track and intensity of TC improved due to the assimilation of satellite data along with vortex initialization (VI). Keeping this in mind, an attempt has been made to investigate the impact of vortex initialization for simulation of TC using UK-Met office global model, operational at NCMRWF (NCUM). This assessment is carried out by taking the case of a extremely severe cyclonic storm "Chapala" that occurred over Arabian Sea (AS) from 28th October to 3rd November 2015. Two numerical experiments viz. Vort-GTS (Assimilation of GTS observations with VI) and Vort-RAD (Same as Vort-GTS with assimilation of satellite data) are carried out. This vortex initialization study in NCUM model is first of its type over North Indian Ocean (NIO). The model simulation of TC is carried out with five different initial conditions through 24 hour cycles for both the experiments. The results indicate that the vortex initialization with assimilation of satellite data has a positive impact on the track and intensity forecast, landfall time and position error of the TCs.

  4. Improving predictions of tropical forest response to climate change through integration of field studies and ecosystem modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Xiaohui; Uriarte, María; González, Grizelle; Reed, Sasha C.; Thompson, Jill; Zimmerman, Jess K.; Murphy, Lora

    2018-01-01

    Tropical forests play a critical role in carbon and water cycles at a global scale. Rapid climate change is anticipated in tropical regions over the coming decades and, under a warmer and drier climate, tropical forests are likely to be net sources of carbon rather than sinks. However, our understanding of tropical forest response and feedback to climate change is very limited. Efforts to model climate change impacts on carbon fluxes in tropical forests have not reached a consensus. Here we use the Ecosystem Demography model (ED2) to predict carbon fluxes of a Puerto Rican tropical forest under realistic climate change scenarios. We parameterized ED2 with species-specific tree physiological data using the Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer workflow and projected the fate of this ecosystem under five future climate scenarios. The model successfully captured inter-annual variability in the dynamics of this tropical forest. Model predictions closely followed observed values across a wide range of metrics including above-ground biomass, tree diameter growth, tree size class distributions, and leaf area index. Under a future warming and drying climate scenario, the model predicted reductions in carbon storage and tree growth, together with large shifts in forest community composition and structure. Such rapid changes in climate led the forest to transition from a sink to a source of carbon. Growth respiration and root allocation parameters were responsible for the highest fraction of predictive uncertainty in modeled biomass, highlighting the need to target these processes in future data collection. Our study is the first effort to rely on Bayesian model calibration and synthesis to elucidate the key physiological parameters that drive uncertainty in tropical forests responses to climatic change. We propose a new path forward for model-data synthesis that can substantially reduce uncertainty in our ability to model tropical forest responses to future climate.

  5. THE MARK I BUSINESS SYSTEM SIMULATION MODEL

    Science.gov (United States)

    of a large-scale business simulation model as a vehicle for doing research in management controls. The major results of the program were the...development of the Mark I business simulation model and the Simulation Package (SIMPAC). SIMPAC is a method and set of programs facilitating the construction...of large simulation models. The object of this document is to describe the Mark I Corporation model, state why parts of the business were modeled as they were, and indicate the research applications of the model. (Author)

  6. Simulated coal spill causes mortality and growth inhibition in tropical marine organisms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berry, Kathryn L E; Hoogenboom, Mia O; Flores, Florita; Negri, Andrew P

    2016-05-13

    Coal is a principal fossil fuel driving economic and social development, and increases in global coal shipments have paralleled expansion of the industry. To identify the potential harm associated with chronic marine coal contamination, three taxa abundant in tropical marine ecosystems (the coral Acropora tenuis, the reef fish Acanthochromis polyacanthus and the seagrass Halodule uninervis) were exposed to five concentrations (0-275 mg coal l(-1)) of suspended coal dust (coal exposure can cause considerable lethal effects on corals, and reductions in seagrass and fish growth rates. Coral survivorship and seagrass growth rates were inversely related to increasing coal concentrations (≥38 mg coal l(-1)) and effects increased between 14 and 28 d, whereas fish growth rates were similarly depressed at all coal concentrations tested. This investigation provides novel insights into direct coal impacts on key tropical taxa for application in the assessment of risks posed by increasing coal shipments in globally threatened marine ecosystems.

  7. Distributed simulation a model driven engineering approach

    CERN Document Server

    Topçu, Okan; Oğuztüzün, Halit; Yilmaz, Levent

    2016-01-01

    Backed by substantive case studies, the novel approach to software engineering for distributed simulation outlined in this text demonstrates the potent synergies between model-driven techniques, simulation, intelligent agents, and computer systems development.

  8. Benchmark simulation models, quo vadis?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeppsson, U; Alex, J; Batstone, D J; Benedetti, L; Comas, J; Copp, J B; Corominas, L; Flores-Alsina, X; Gernaey, K V; Nopens, I; Pons, M-N; Rodríguez-Roda, I; Rosen, C; Steyer, J-P; Vanrolleghem, P A; Volcke, E I P; Vrecko, D

    2013-01-01

    As the work of the IWA Task Group on Benchmarking of Control Strategies for wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) is coming to an end, it is essential to disseminate the knowledge gained. For this reason, all authors of the IWA Scientific and Technical Report on benchmarking have come together to provide their insights, highlighting areas where knowledge may still be deficient and where new opportunities are emerging, and to propose potential avenues for future development and application of the general benchmarking framework and its associated tools. The paper focuses on the topics of temporal and spatial extension, process modifications within the WWTP, the realism of models, control strategy extensions and the potential for new evaluation tools within the existing benchmark system. We find that there are major opportunities for application within all of these areas, either from existing work already being done within the context of the benchmarking simulation models (BSMs) or applicable work in the wider literature. Of key importance is increasing capability, usability and transparency of the BSM package while avoiding unnecessary complexity.

  9. Simulation modelling of fynbos ecosystems: Systems analysis and conceptual models

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Kruger, FJ

    1985-03-01

    Full Text Available -animal interactions. An additional two models, which expand aspects of the FYNBOS model, are described: a model for simulating canopy processes; and a Fire Recovery Simulator. The canopy process model will simulate ecophysiological processes in more detail than FYNBOS...

  10. Ecohydrological modeling of a tropical tidal catchment exposed to anthropogenic pressure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lorenz, Malte; Zeunert, Stephanie; Meon, Günter

    2016-04-01

    situation, meaningful results for discharge, concentration and nutrient load calibration could be achieved. A sensitivity analysis demonstrated that the water quality processes of nitrogen are dominated by terrestrial transformation processes. The developed model is able to simulate the characteristic dynamics of mineralization, which are typically observed in the humid tropics. Beside the implemented "Availability and Demand Approach", which is accounting for a temporary storage of nutrients in the microbial biomass, the implemented moisture functions are of particular importance. The consideration of sediment compartments and processes related to periphyton activity were key components in the water quality modeling of the catchment. The calibrated model was utilized to identify pollution sources and hot spots in the estuary and in the catchment. Furthermore, tracer simulations showed that the upper part of the estuary is more vulnerable to pollution then the lower part. This confirms the findings of the monitoring. In addition, predictions for water quality in response to anthropogenic changes regarding population, land use and industrial development were carried out with the coupled modeling system. Results of these scenarios are presented.

  11. Climate simulations for 1880-2003 with GISS modelE

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hansen, J.; Lacis, A.; Miller, R.; Schmidt, G.A.; Russell, G.; Canuto, V.; Del Genio, A.; Hall, T.; Hansen, J.; Sato, M.; Kharecha, P.; Nazarenko, L.; Aleinov, I.; Bauer, S.; Chandler, M.; Faluvegi, G.; Jonas, J.; Ruedy, R.; Lo, K.; Cheng, Y.; Lacis, A.; Schmidt, G.A.; Del Genio, A.; Miller, R.; Cairns, B.; Hall, T.; Baum, E.; Cohen, A.; Fleming, E.; Jackman, C.; Friend, A.; Kelley, M.

    2007-01-01

    We carry out climate simulations for 1880-2003 with GISS modelE driven by ten measured or estimated climate forcing. An ensemble of climate model runs is carried out for each forcing acting individually and for all forcing mechanisms acting together. We compare side-by-side simulated climate change for each forcing, all forcing, observations, unforced variability among model ensemble members, and, if available, observed variability. Discrepancies between observations and simulations with all forcing are due to model deficiencies, inaccurate or incomplete forcing, and imperfect observations. Although there are notable discrepancies between model and observations, the fidelity is sufficient to encourage use of the model for simulations of future climate change. By using a fixed well-documented model and accurately defining the 1880-2003 forcing, we aim to provide a benchmark against which the effect of improvements in the model, climate forcing, and observations can be tested. Principal model deficiencies include unrealistic weak tropical El Nino-like variability and a poor distribution of sea ice, with too much sea ice in the Northern Hemisphere and too little in the Southern Hemisphere. Greatest uncertainties in the forcing are the temporal and spatial variations of anthropogenic aerosols and their indirect effects on clouds. (authors)

  12. Genomics approaches to unlock the high yield potential of cassava, a tropical model plant

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shengkui ZHANG,Ping'an MA,Haiyan WANG,Cheng LU,Xin CHEN,Zhiqiang XIA,Meiling ZOU,Xinchen ZHOU,Wenquan WANG

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Cassava, a tropical food, feed and biofuel crop, has great capacity for biomass accumulation and an extraordinary efficiency in water use and mineral nutrition, which makes it highly suitable as a model plant for tropical crops. However, the understanding of the metabolism and genomics of this important crop is limited. The recent breakthroughs in the genomics of cassava, including whole-genome sequencing and transcriptome analysis, as well as advances in the biology of photosynthesis, starch biosynthesis, adaptation to drought and high temperature, and resistance to virus and bacterial diseases, are reviewed here. Many of the new developments have come from comparative analyses between a wild ancestor and existing cultivars. Finally, the current challenges and future potential of cassava as a model plant are discussed.

  13. An introduction to enterprise modeling and simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ostic, J.K.; Cannon, C.E. [Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States). Technology Modeling and Analysis Group

    1996-09-01

    As part of an ongoing effort to continuously improve productivity, quality, and efficiency of both industry and Department of Energy enterprises, Los Alamos National Laboratory is investigating various manufacturing and business enterprise simulation methods. A number of enterprise simulation software models are being developed to enable engineering analysis of enterprise activities. In this document the authors define the scope of enterprise modeling and simulation efforts, and review recent work in enterprise simulation at Los Alamos National Laboratory as well as at other industrial, academic, and research institutions. References of enterprise modeling and simulation methods and a glossary of enterprise-related terms are provided.

  14. Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications

    CERN Document Server

    Filipe, Joaquim; Kacprzyk, Janusz; Pina, Nuno

    2014-01-01

    This book includes extended and revised versions of a set of selected papers from the 2012 International Conference on Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications (SIMULTECH 2012) which was sponsored by the Institute for Systems and Technologies of Information, Control and Communication (INSTICC) and held in Rome, Italy. SIMULTECH 2012 was technically co-sponsored by the Society for Modeling & Simulation International (SCS), GDR I3, Lionphant Simulation, Simulation Team and IFIP and held in cooperation with AIS Special Interest Group of Modeling and Simulation (AIS SIGMAS) and the Movimento Italiano Modellazione e Simulazione (MIMOS).

  15. Structured building model reduction toward parallel simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dobbs, Justin R. [Cornell University; Hencey, Brondon M. [Cornell University

    2013-08-26

    Building energy model reduction exchanges accuracy for improved simulation speed by reducing the number of dynamical equations. Parallel computing aims to improve simulation times without loss of accuracy but is poorly utilized by contemporary simulators and is inherently limited by inter-processor communication. This paper bridges these disparate techniques to implement efficient parallel building thermal simulation. We begin with a survey of three structured reduction approaches that compares their performance to a leading unstructured method. We then use structured model reduction to find thermal clusters in the building energy model and allocate processing resources. Experimental results demonstrate faster simulation and low error without any interprocessor communication.

  16. Landsat analysis of tropical forest succession employing a terrain model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barringer, T. H.; Robinson, V. B.; Coiner, J. C.; Bruce, R. C.

    1980-01-01

    Landsat multispectral scanner (MSS) data have yielded a dual classification of rain forest and shadow in an analysis of a semi-deciduous forest on Mindonoro Island, Philippines. Both a spatial terrain model, using a fifth side polynomial trend surface analysis for quantitatively estimating the general spatial variation in the data set, and a spectral terrain model, based on the MSS data, have been set up. A discriminant analysis, using both sets of data, has suggested that shadowing effects may be due primarily to local variations in the spectral regions and can therefore be compensated for through the decomposition of the spatial variation in both elevation and MSS data.

  17. Simulating changes in ecosystem structure and composition in response to climate change: a case study focused on tropical nitrogen-fixing trees (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medvigy, D.; Levy, J.; Xu, X.; Batterman, S. A.; Hedin, L.

    2013-12-01

    Ecosystems, by definition, involve a community of organisms. These communities generally exhibit heterogeneity in their structure and composition as a result of local variations in climate, soil, topography, disturbance history, and other factors. Climate-driven shifts in ecosystems will likely include an internal re-organization of community structure and composition and as well as the introduction of novel species. In terms of vegetation, this ecosystem heterogeneity can occur at relatively small scales, sometimes of the order of tens of meters or even less. Because this heterogeneous landscape generally has a variable and nonlinear response to environmental perturbations, it is necessary to carefully aggregate the local competitive dynamics between individual plants to the large scales of tens or hundreds of kilometers represented in climate models. Accomplishing this aggregation in a computationally efficient way has proven to be an extremely challenging task. To meet this challenge, the Ecosystem Demography 2 (ED2) model statistically characterizes a distribution of local resource environments, and then simulates the competition between individuals of different sizes and species (or functional groupings). Within this framework, it is possible to explicitly simulate the impacts of climate change on ecosystem structure and composition, including both internal re-organization and the introduction of novel species or functional groups. This presentation will include several illustrative applications of the evolution of ecosystem structure and composition under climate change. One application pertains to the role of nitrogen-fixing species in tropical forests. Will increasing CO2 concentrations increase the demand for nutrients and perhaps give a competitive edge to nitrogen-fixing species? Will potentially warmer and drier conditions make some tropical forests more water-limited, reducing the demand for nitrogen, thereby giving a competitive advantage to non

  18. Measured and modelled sublimation on the tropical Glaciar Artesonraju, Perú

    OpenAIRE

    M. Winkler; I. Juen; T. Mölg; G. Kaser

    2008-01-01

    Sublimation plays a decisive role in the surface energy balance of tropical glaciers. During the dry season low specific humidity and high surface roughness favour the direct transition from ice to vapour and drastically reduce the energy available for melting. However, field measurements are scarce and little is known about the performance of sublimation parametrisations in glacier mass balance and runoff models.

    During 15 days in August 2005 sublimation was measured on ...

  19. Measured and modelled sublimation on the tropical Glaciar Artesonraju, Perú

    OpenAIRE

    Winkler , M.; Juen , I.; Mölg , T.; Wagnon , Patrick; Gómez , J.; Kaser , G.

    2009-01-01

    Sublimation plays a decisive role in the surface energy and mass balance of tropical glaciers. During the dry season (May–September) low specific humidity and high surface roughness favour the direct transition from ice to vapour and drastically reduce the energy available for melting. However, field measurements are scarce and little is known about the performance of sublimation parameterisations in glacier mass balance and runoff models.

    During 15 days in August 2005 su...

  20. The impact of lianas on the carbon cycle of tropical forests: a modeling study using the Ecosystem Demography model

    Science.gov (United States)

    di Porcia e Brugnera, M.; Longo, M.; Verbeek, H.

    2017-12-01

    Lianas are an important component of tropical forests, constituting up to 40% of the woody stems and about 35% of the woody species. Tropical forests have been experiencing large-scale structural changes, including an increase in liana abundance and biomass. This may eventually reduce the projected carbon sink of tropical forests. Despite their crucial role no single terrestrial ecosystem model has included lianas so far. Here, we present the very first implementation of lianas in the Ecosystem Demography model (ED2). ED2 is able to represent the competition for water and light between different vegetation types at the regional level. Our new implementation of ED2 is hence suitable to address important questions such as the impact of lianas on the tropical forest carbon balance. We validated the model against forest inventory and eddy covariance flux data at a dry seasonal site (Barro Colorado Island, Panama), and at a wet rainforest site (Paracou, French Guiana). The model was able to represent size structure and carbon accumulation rates. We also evaluated the impact of the unique allocation strategy of lianas on their competitive ability. Lianas invest only a small fraction of their carbon for structural tissues when compared to trees. As a result, lianas benefit from an extra amount of available carbon, however the trade-offs of low allocation on structural tissues are not yet well understood. We are currently investigating a number of hypotheses, including the possibility for lianas to have high turnover rates for leaves and fine roots, or to have high mortality rates due to the loss of structural support when trees die. As such our model allows us to get a better understanding of the role of lianas in the tropical forest carbon cycle.

  1. Potential regulation on the climatic effect of Tibetan Plateau heating by tropical air-sea coupling in regional models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Ziqian; Duan, Anmin; Yang, Song

    2018-05-01

    Based on the conventional weather research and forecasting (WRF) model and the air-sea coupled mode WRF-OMLM, we investigate the potential regulation on the climatic effect of Tibetan Plateau (TP) heating by the air-sea coupling over the tropical Indian Ocean and western Pacific. Results indicate that the TP heating significantly enhances the southwesterly monsoon circulation over the northern Indian Ocean and the South Asia subcontinent. The intensified southwesterly wind cools the sea surface mainly through the wind-evaporation-SST (sea surface temperature) feedback. Cold SST anomaly then weakens monsoon convective activity, especially that over the Bay of Bengal, and less water vapor is thus transported into the TP along its southern slope from the tropical oceans. As a result, summer precipitation decreases over the TP, which further weakens the TP local heat source. Finally, the changed TP heating continues to influence the summer monsoon precipitation and atmospheric circulation. To a certain extent, the air-sea coupling over the adjacent oceans may weaken the effect of TP heating on the mean climate in summer. It is also implied that considerations of air-sea interaction are necessary in future simulation studies of the TP heating effect.

  2. The CFD Simulation on Thermal Comfort in a library Building in the Tropics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yau, Y. H.; Ghazali, N. N. N.; Badarudin, A.; Goh, F. C.

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents a three-dimensional analysis for thermal comfort in a library. The room model includes library layout, equipment and peripheral positions as well as the positions of inlet and outlet air for IAQ controls. Cold clean air is supplied to the room through ceiling-mounted air grilles and exhausted through air grilles situated on the same ceiling. A commercial CFD package was used in this study to achieve solutions of the distribution of airflow velocity and temperature. Using high quality meshes is vital to the overall accuracy of the results. Simulation results show a good agreement with experimental data from the literature. This study has thoroughly analysed the indoor thermal conditions and airflow characteristics of the building. In addition, verification of the CFD program with experimental data showed that the program can provide reasonable and reliable predictions on thermal comfort performance with the help of precise boundary conditions.

  3. (Tropical) soil organic matter modelling: problems and prospects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Keulen, van H.

    2001-01-01

    Soil organic matter plays an important role in many physical, chemical and biological processes. However, the quantitative relations between the mineral and organic components of the soil and the relations with the vegetation are poorly understood. In such situations, the use of models is an

  4. A physiological production model for cacao : results of model simulations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zuidema, P.A.; Leffelaar, P.A.

    2002-01-01

    CASE2 is a physiological model for cocoa (Theobroma cacao L.) growth and yield. This report introduces the CAcao Simulation Engine for water-limited production in a non-technical way and presents simulation results obtained with the model.

  5. Simulation modeling and analysis with Arena

    CERN Document Server

    Altiok, Tayfur

    2007-01-01

    Simulation Modeling and Analysis with Arena is a highly readable textbook which treats the essentials of the Monte Carlo discrete-event simulation methodology, and does so in the context of a popular Arena simulation environment.” It treats simulation modeling as an in-vitro laboratory that facilitates the understanding of complex systems and experimentation with what-if scenarios in order to estimate their performance metrics. The book contains chapters on the simulation modeling methodology and the underpinnings of discrete-event systems, as well as the relevant underlying probability, statistics, stochastic processes, input analysis, model validation and output analysis. All simulation-related concepts are illustrated in numerous Arena examples, encompassing production lines, manufacturing and inventory systems, transportation systems, and computer information systems in networked settings.· Introduces the concept of discrete event Monte Carlo simulation, the most commonly used methodology for modeli...

  6. Species distribution models of tropical deep-sea snappers.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Céline Gomez

    Full Text Available Deep-sea fisheries provide an important source of protein to Pacific Island countries and territories that are highly dependent on fish for food security. However, spatial management of these deep-sea habitats is hindered by insufficient data. We developed species distribution models using spatially limited presence data for the main harvested species in the Western Central Pacific Ocean. We used bathymetric and water temperature data to develop presence-only species distribution models for the commercially exploited deep-sea snappers Etelis Cuvier 1828, Pristipomoides Valenciennes 1830, and Aphareus Cuvier 1830. We evaluated the performance of four different algorithms (CTA, GLM, MARS, and MAXENT within the BIOMOD framework to obtain an ensemble of predicted distributions. We projected these predictions across the Western Central Pacific Ocean to produce maps of potential deep-sea snapper distributions in 32 countries and territories. Depth was consistently the best predictor of presence for all species groups across all models. Bathymetric slope was consistently the poorest predictor. Temperature at depth was a good predictor of presence for GLM only. Model precision was highest for MAXENT and CTA. There were strong regional patterns in predicted distribution of suitable habitat, with the largest areas of suitable habitat (> 35% of the Exclusive Economic Zone predicted in seven South Pacific countries and territories (Fiji, Matthew & Hunter, Nauru, New Caledonia, Tonga, Vanuatu and Wallis & Futuna. Predicted habitat also varied among species, with the proportion of predicted habitat highest for Aphareus and lowest for Etelis. Despite data paucity, the relationship between deep-sea snapper presence and their environments was sufficiently strong to predict their distribution across a large area of the Pacific Ocean. Our results therefore provide a strong baseline for designing monitoring programs that balance resource exploitation and

  7. Polynomial Chaos–Based Bayesian Inference of K-Profile Parameterization in a General Circulation Model of the Tropical Pacific

    KAUST Repository

    Sraj, Ihab; Zedler, Sarah E.; Knio, Omar; Jackson, Charles S.; Hoteit, Ibrahim

    2016-01-01

    The authors present a polynomial chaos (PC)-based Bayesian inference method for quantifying the uncertainties of the K-profile parameterization (KPP) within the MIT general circulation model (MITgcm) of the tropical Pacific. The inference

  8. Modeling Spatial Soil Water Dynamics in a Tropical Floodplain, East Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Geofrey Gabiri

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Analyzing the spatial and temporal distribution of soil moisture is critical for ecohydrological processes and for sustainable water management studies in wetlands. The characterization of soil moisture dynamics and its influencing factors in agriculturally used wetlands pose a challenge in data-scarce regions such as East Africa. High resolution and good-quality time series soil moisture data are rarely available and gaps are frequent due to measurement constraints and device malfunctioning. Soil water models that integrate meteorological conditions and soil water storage may significantly overcome limitations due to data gaps at a point scale. The purpose of this study was to evaluate if the Hydrus-1D model would adequately simulate soil water dynamics at different hydrological zones of a tropical floodplain in Tanzania, to determine controlling factors for wet and dry periods and to assess soil water availability. The zones of the Kilombero floodplain were segmented as riparian, middle, and fringe along a defined transect. The model was satisfactorily calibrated (coefficient of determination; R2 = 0.54–0.92, root mean square error; RMSE = 0.02–0.11 on a plot scale using measured soil moisture content at soil depths of 10, 20, 30, and 40 cm. Satisfying statistical measures (R2 = 0.36–0.89, RMSE = 0.03–0.13 were obtained when calibrations for one plot were validated with measured soil moisture for another plot within the same hydrological zone. Results show the transferability of the calibrated Hydrus-1D model to predict soil moisture for other plots with similar hydrological conditions. Soil water storage increased towards the riparian zone, at 262.8 mm/a while actual evapotranspiration was highest (1043.9 mm/a at the fringe. Overbank flow, precipitation, and groundwater control soil moisture dynamics at the riparian and middle zone, while at the fringe zone, rainfall and lateral flow from mountains control soil moisture during the

  9. Network Modeling and Simulation A Practical Perspective

    CERN Document Server

    Guizani, Mohsen; Khan, Bilal

    2010-01-01

    Network Modeling and Simulation is a practical guide to using modeling and simulation to solve real-life problems. The authors give a comprehensive exposition of the core concepts in modeling and simulation, and then systematically address the many practical considerations faced by developers in modeling complex large-scale systems. The authors provide examples from computer and telecommunication networks and use these to illustrate the process of mapping generic simulation concepts to domain-specific problems in different industries and disciplines. Key features: Provides the tools and strate

  10. Future Simulated Intensification of Precipitation Extremes, CMIP5 Model Uncertainties and Dependencies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bador, M.; Donat, M.; Geoffroy, O.; Alexander, L. V.

    2017-12-01

    Precipitation intensity during extreme events is expected to increase with climate change. Throughout the 21st century, CMIP5 climate models project a general increase in annual extreme precipitation in most regions. We investigate how robust this future increase is across different models, regions and seasons. We find that there is strong similarity in extreme precipitation changes between models that share atmospheric physics, reducing the ensemble of 27 models to 14 independent projections. We find that future simulated extreme precipitation increases in most models in the majority of land grid cells located in the dry, intermediate and wet regions according to each model's precipitation climatology. These increases significantly exceed the range of natural variability estimated from long equilibrium control runs. The intensification of extreme precipitation across the entire spectrum of dry to wet regions is particularly robust in the extra-tropics in both wet and dry season, whereas uncertainties are larger in the tropics. The CMIP5 ensemble therefore indicates robust future intensification of annual extreme rainfall in particular in extra-tropical regions. Generally, the CMIP5 robustness is higher during the dry season compared to the wet season and the annual scale, but inter-model uncertainties in the tropics remain important.

  11. A model for calculating hourly global solar radiation from satellite data in the tropics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Janjai, S.; Pankaew, P.; Laksanaboonsong, J.

    2009-01-01

    A model for calculating global solar radiation from geostationary satellite data is presented. The model is designed to calculate the monthly average hourly global radiation in the tropics with high aerosol load. This model represents a physical relation between the earth-atmospheric albedo derived from GMS5 satellite data and the absorption and scattering coefficients of various atmospheric constituents. The absorption of solar radiation by water vapour which is important for the tropics, was calculated from ambient temperature and relative humidity. The relationship between the visibility and solar radiation depletion due to aerosols was developed for a high aerosol load environment. This relationship was used to calculate solar radiation depletion by aerosols in the model. The total column ozone from TOMS/EP satellite was employed for the determination of solar radiation absorbed by ozone. Solar radiation from four pyranometer stations was used to formulate the relationship between the satellite band earth-atmospheric albedo and broadband earth-atmospheric albedo required by the model. To test its performance, the model was used to compute the monthly average hourly global radiation at 25 solar radiation monitoring stations in tropical areas in Thailand. It was found that the values of monthly average of hourly global radiations calculated from the model were in good agreement with those obtained from the measurements, with the root mean square difference of 10%. After the validation the model was employed to generate hourly solar radiation maps of Thailand. These maps reveal the diurnal and season variation of solar radiation over the country.

  12. A model for calculating hourly global solar radiation from satellite data in the tropics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Janjai, S.; Pankaew, P.; Laksanaboonsong, J. [Solar Energy Research Laboratory, Department of Physics, Faculty of Science, Silpakorn University, Nakhon Pathom 73000 (Thailand)

    2009-09-15

    A model for calculating global solar radiation from geostationary satellite data is presented. The model is designed to calculate the monthly average hourly global radiation in the tropics with high aerosol load. This model represents a physical relation between the earth-atmospheric albedo derived from GMS5 satellite data and the absorption and scattering coefficients of various atmospheric constituents. The absorption of solar radiation by water vapour which is important for the tropics, was calculated from ambient temperature and relative humidity. The relationship between the visibility and solar radiation depletion due to aerosols was developed for a high aerosol load environment. This relationship was used to calculate solar radiation depletion by aerosols in the model. The total column ozone from TOMS/EP satellite was employed for the determination of solar radiation absorbed by ozone. Solar radiation from four pyranometer stations was used to formulate the relationship between the satellite band earth-atmospheric albedo and broadband earth-atmospheric albedo required by the model. To test its performance, the model was used to compute the monthly average hourly global radiation at 25 solar radiation monitoring stations in tropical areas in Thailand. It was found that the values of monthly average of hourly global radiations calculated from the model were in good agreement with those obtained from the measurements, with the root mean square difference of 10%. After the validation the model was employed to generate hourly solar radiation maps of Thailand. These maps reveal the diurnal and season variation of solar radiation over the country. (author)

  13. Modelling and simulation of a heat exchanger

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xia, Lei; Deabreu-Garcia, J. Alex; Hartley, Tom T.

    1991-01-01

    Two models for two different control systems are developed for a parallel heat exchanger. First by spatially lumping a heat exchanger model, a good approximate model which has a high system order is produced. Model reduction techniques are applied to these to obtain low order models that are suitable for dynamic analysis and control design. The simulation method is discussed to ensure a valid simulation result.

  14. On the development of a coupled regional climate-vegetation model RCM-CLM-CN-DV and its validation in Tropical Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Guiling; Yu, Miao; Pal, Jeremy S.; Mei, Rui; Bonan, Gordon B.; Levis, Samuel; Thornton, Peter E.

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents a regional climate system model RCM-CLM-CN-DV and its validation over Tropical Africa. The model development involves the initial coupling between the ICTP regional climate model RegCM4.3.4 (RCM) and the Community Land Model version 4 (CLM4) including models of carbon-nitrogen dynamics (CN) and vegetation dynamics (DV), and further improvements of the models. Model improvements derive from the new parameterization from CLM4.5 that addresses the well documented overestimation of gross primary production (GPP), a refinement of stress deciduous phenology scheme in CN that addresses a spurious LAI fluctuation for drought-deciduous plants, and the incorporation of a survival rule into the DV model to prevent tropical broadleaf evergreens trees from growing in areas with a prolonged drought season. The impact of the modifications on model results is documented based on numerical experiments using various subcomponents of the model. The performance of the coupled model is then validated against observational data based on three configurations with increasing capacity: RCM-CLM with prescribed leaf area index and fractional coverage of different plant functional types (PFTs); RCM-CLM-CN with prescribed PFTs coverage but prognostic plant phenology; RCM-CLM-CN-DV in which both the plant phenology and PFTs coverage are simulated by the model. Results from these three models are compared against the FLUXNET up-scaled GPP and ET data, LAI and PFT coverages from remote sensing data including MODIS and GIMMS, University of Delaware precipitation and temperature data, and surface radiation data from MVIRI and SRB. Our results indicate that the models perform well in reproducing the physical climate and surface radiative budgets in the domain of interest. However, PFTs coverage is significantly underestimated by the model over arid and semi-arid regions of Tropical Africa, caused by an underestimation of LAI in these regions by the CN model that gets exacerbated

  15. Simulated coal spill causes mortality and growth inhibition in tropical marine organisms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berry, Kathryn L. E.; Hoogenboom, Mia O.; Flores, Florita; Negri, Andrew P.

    2016-05-01

    Coal is a principal fossil fuel driving economic and social development, and increases in global coal shipments have paralleled expansion of the industry. To identify the potential harm associated with chronic marine coal contamination, three taxa abundant in tropical marine ecosystems (the coral Acropora tenuis, the reef fish Acanthochromis polyacanthus and the seagrass Halodule uninervis) were exposed to five concentrations (0-275 mg coal l-1) of suspended coal dust (<63 μm) over 28 d. Results demonstrate that chronic coal exposure can cause considerable lethal effects on corals, and reductions in seagrass and fish growth rates. Coral survivorship and seagrass growth rates were inversely related to increasing coal concentrations (≥38 mg coal l-1) and effects increased between 14 and 28 d, whereas fish growth rates were similarly depressed at all coal concentrations tested. This investigation provides novel insights into direct coal impacts on key tropical taxa for application in the assessment of risks posed by increasing coal shipments in globally threatened marine ecosystems.

  16. A 2-d modeling approach for studying the formation, maintenance, and decay of Tropical Tropopause Layer Cirrus associated with Deep Convection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henz, D. R.; Hashino, T.; Tripoli, G. J.; Smith, E. A.

    2009-12-01

    This study is being conducted to examine the distribution, variability, and formation-decay processes of TTL cirrus associated with tropical deep convection using the University of Wisconsin Non-Hydrostatic modeling system (NMS). The experimental design is based on Tripoli, Hack and Kiehl (1992) which explicitly simulates the radiative-convective equilibrium of the tropical atmosphere over extended periods of weeks or months using a 2D periodic cloud resolving model. The experiment design includes a radiation parameterization to explicitly simulate radiative transfer through simulated crystals. Advanced Microphysics Prediction System (AMP) will be used to simulate microphysics by employing SHIPS (Spectral Habit Ice Prediction System) for ice, SLiPS (Spectral Liquid Prediction System) for droplets, and SAPS (Spectral Aerosol Prediction System) for aerosols. The ice scheme called SHIPS is unique in that ice particle properties (such as size, particle density, and crystal habitats) are explicitly predicted in a CRM (Hashino and Tripoli, 2007, 2008). The Advanced Microphysics Prediction System (AMPS) technology provides a particularly strong tool that effectively enables the explicit modeling of the TTL cloud microphysics and dynamical processes which has yet to be accomplished by more traditional bulk microphysics approaches.

  17. Modeling and simulation of large HVDC systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jin, H.; Sood, V.K.

    1993-01-01

    This paper addresses the complexity and the amount of work in preparing simulation data and in implementing various converter control schemes and the excessive simulation time involved in modelling and simulation of large HVDC systems. The Power Electronic Circuit Analysis program (PECAN) is used to address these problems and a large HVDC system with two dc links is simulated using PECAN. A benchmark HVDC system is studied to compare the simulation results with those from other packages. The simulation time and results are provided in the paper.

  18. Simulated effects of a seasonal precipitation change on the vegetation in tropical Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. S. Gritti

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Pollen data collected in Africa at high (Kuruyange, valley swamp, Burundi and low altitude (Victoria, lake, Uganda; Ngamakala, pond, Congo showed that after 6 ky before present (BP, pollen of deciduous trees increase their relative percentage, suggesting thus the reduction of the annual amount of precipitation and/or an increase of in the length of the dry season. Until now, pollen-climate transfer functions only investigated mean annual precipitation, due to the absence of modern pollen-assemblage analogs under diversified precipitation regimes. Hence these functions omit the potential effect of a change in precipitation seasonality modifying thus the length of the dry season. In the present study, we use an equilibrium biosphere model (i.e. BIOME3.5 to estimate the sensitivity of equatorial African vegetation, at specific sites, to such changes. Climatic scenarios, differing only in the monthly distribution of the current annual amount of precipitation, are examined at the above three locations in equatorial Africa. Soil characteristics, monthly temperatures and cloudiness are kept constant at their present-day values. Good agreement is shown between model simulations and current biomes assemblages, as inferred from pollen data. To date, the increase of the deciduous forest component in the palaeodata around 6 ky BP has been interpreted as the beginning of a drier climate period. However, our results demonstrate that a change in the seasonal distribution of precipitation could also induce the observed changes in vegetation types. This study confirms the importance of taking into account seasonal changes in the hydrological balance. Palaeoecologists can greatly benefit from the use of dynamic process based vegetation models to acccount for modification of the length of the dry season when they wish to reconstruct vegetation composition or to infer quantitative climate parameters, such as temperature and precipitation, from pollen or vegetation

  19. Improving simulated spatial distribution of productivity and biomass in Amazon forests using the ACME land model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, X.; Thornton, P. E.; Ricciuto, D. M.; Shi, X.; Xu, M.; Hoffman, F. M.; Norby, R. J.

    2017-12-01

    Tropical forests play a crucial role in the global carbon cycle, accounting for one third of the global NPP and containing about 25% of global vegetation biomass and soil carbon. This is particularly true for tropical forests in the Amazon region, as it comprises approximately 50% of the world's tropical forests. It is therefore important for us to understand and represent the processes that determine the fluxes and storage of carbon in these forests. In this study, we show that the implementation of phosphorus (P) cycle and P limitation in the ACME Land Model (ALM) improves simulated spatial pattern of NPP. The P-enabled ALM is able to capture the west-to-east gradient of productivity, consistent with field observations. We also show that by improving the representation of mortality processes, ALM is able to reproduce the observed spatial pattern of above ground biomass across the Amazon region.

  20. Identification of Storm Surge Vulnerable Areas in the Philippines Through Simulations of Typhoon Haiyan-Induced Storm Surge Using Tracks of Historical Tropical Cyclones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lapidez, John Phillip; Suarez, John Kenneth; Tablazon, Judd; Dasallas, Lea; Gonzalo, Lia Anne; Santiago, Joy; Cabacaba, Krichi May; Ramos, Michael Marie Angelo; Mahar Francisco Lagmay, Alfredo; Malano, Vicente

    2014-05-01

    Super Typhoon Haiyan entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) 07 November 2013, causing tremendous damage to infrastructure and loss of lives mainly due to the typhoon's storm surge and strong winds. Storm surges up to a height of 7 meters were reported in the hardest hit areas. The threat imposed by this kind of natural calamity compelled researchers of the Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards, the flagship disaster mitigation program of the Department of Science and Technology, Government of the Philippines, to undertake a study to determine the vulnerability of all Philippine coastal communities to storm surges of the same magnitude as those generated by Haiyan. This study calculates the maximum probable storm surge height for every coastal locality by running simulations of Haiyan-type conditions but with tracks of tropical cyclones that entered PAR from 1948-2013. DOST-Project NOAH used the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) Storm Surge Model, a numerical code that simulates and predicts storm surges spawned by tropical cyclones. Input parameters for the storm surge model include bathymetric data, storm track, central atmospheric pressure, and maximum wind speed. The simulations were made using Haiyan's pressure and wind speed as the forcing parameters. The simulated storm surge height values were added to the maximum tide level obtained from WXTide, software that contains a catalogue of worldwide astronomical tides, to come up with storm tide levels. The resulting water level was used as input to FLO-2D to generate the storm tide inundation maps. One product of this study is a list of the most vulnerable coastal areas that can be used as basis for choosing priority sites for further studies to implement appropriate site-specific solutions. Another product is the storm tide inundation maps that the local government units can use to develop a Risk-Sensitive Land Use Plan for identifying appropriate areas to build residential buildings

  1. Model under-representation of decadal Pacific trade wind trends and its link to tropical Atlantic bias

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kajtar, Jules B.; Santoso, Agus; McGregor, Shayne; England, Matthew H.; Baillie, Zak

    2018-02-01

    The strengthening of the Pacific trade winds in recent decades has been unmatched in the observational record stretching back to the early twentieth century. This wind strengthening has been connected with numerous climate-related phenomena, including accelerated sea-level rise in the western Pacific, alterations to Indo-Pacific ocean currents, increased ocean heat uptake, and a slow-down in the rate of global-mean surface warming. Here we show that models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 underestimate the observed range of decadal trends in the Pacific trade winds, despite capturing the range in decadal sea surface temperature (SST) variability. Analysis of observational data suggests that tropical Atlantic SST contributes considerably to the Pacific trade wind trends, whereas the Atlantic feedback in coupled models is muted. Atmosphere-only simulations forced by observed SST are capable of recovering the time-variation and the magnitude of the trade wind trends. Hence, we explore whether it is the biases in the mean or in the anomalous SST patterns that are responsible for the under-representation in fully coupled models. Over interannual time-scales, we find that model biases in the patterns of Atlantic SST anomalies are the strongest source of error in the precipitation and atmospheric circulation response. In contrast, on decadal time-scales, the magnitude of the model biases in Atlantic mean SST are directly linked with the trade wind variability response.

  2. Modeling and Simulation of Low Voltage Arcs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ghezzi, L.; Balestrero, A.

    2010-01-01

    Modeling and Simulation of Low Voltage Arcs is an attempt to improve the physical understanding, mathematical modeling and numerical simulation of the electric arcs that are found during current interruptions in low voltage circuit breakers. An empirical description is gained by refined electrical

  3. Numerical Simulations and Diagnostic Studies of Meteorological Conditions During PEM-Tropics B

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuelberg, Henry E.

    2001-01-01

    Provides a final report on the work accomplished by several meteorological scientists under a NASA grant in conjunction with the DC-8 component of Pacific Exploratory Mission (PEM)-Tropics B. The responsibilities of the principal investigator included collaboration with the Science Team on flight planning, presentation of forecasts, and the preparation of map discussions for each flight. In a published manuscript, the principal investigator summarized the meteorological conditions during PEM-TB which included mean flow patterns, subtropical anticyclones, the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ), and the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Methodologies used included streamlines, ten day backward trajectories, thermodynamic soundings, and satellite imagery. Other interests included air sampling for the purpose of determining pollution levels.

  4. ENSO Effect on East Asian Tropical Cyclone Landfall via Changes in Tracks and Genesis in a Statistical Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yonekura, Emmi; Hall, Timothy M.

    2014-01-01

    Improvements on a statistical tropical cyclone (TC) track model in the western North Pacific Ocean are described. The goal of the model is to study the effect of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on East Asian TC landfall. The model is based on the International Best-Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) database of TC observations for 1945-2007 and employs local regression of TC formation rates and track increments on the Nino-3.4 index and seasonally varying climate parameters. The main improvements are the inclusion of ENSO dependence in the track propagation and accounting for seasonality in both genesis and tracks. A comparison of simulations of the 1945-2007 period with observations concludes that the model updates improve the skill of this model in simulating TCs. Changes in TC genesis and tracks are analyzed separately and cumulatively in simulations of stationary extreme ENSO states. ENSO effects on regional (100-km scale) landfall are attributed to changes in genesis and tracks. The effect of ENSO on genesis is predominantly a shift in genesis location from the southeast in El Nino years to the northwest in La Nina years, resulting in higher landfall rates for the East Asian coast during La Nina. The effect of ENSO on track propagation varies seasonally and spatially. In the peak activity season (July-October), there are significant changes in mean tracks with ENSO. Landfall-rate changes from genesis- and track-ENSO effects in the Philippines cancel out, while coastal segments of Vietnam, China, the Korean Peninsula, and Japan show enhanced La Nina-year increases.

  5. Modeling the inorganic bromine partitioning in the tropical tropopause layer over the eastern and western Pacific Ocean

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. A. Navarro

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available The stratospheric inorganic bromine (Bry burden arising from the degradation of brominated very short-lived organic substances (VSLorg and its partitioning between reactive and reservoir species is needed for a comprehensive assessment of the ozone depletion potential of brominated trace gases. Here we present modeled inorganic bromine abundances over the Pacific tropical tropopause based on aircraft observations of VSLorg from two campaigns of the Airborne Tropical TRopopause EXperiment (ATTREX 2013, carried out over the eastern Pacific, and ATTREX 2014, carried out over the western Pacific and chemistry-climate simulations (along ATTREX flight tracks using the specific meteorology prevailing. Using the Community Atmosphere Model with Chemistry (CAM-Chem we model that BrO and Br are the daytime dominant species. Integrated across all ATTREX flights, BrO represents ∼ 43 and 48 % of daytime Bry abundance at 17 km over the western and eastern Pacific, respectively. The results also show zones where Br / BrO > 1 depending on the solar zenith angle (SZA, ozone concentration, and temperature. On the other hand, BrCl and BrONO2 were found to be the dominant nighttime species with ∼  61 and 56 % of abundance at 17 km over the western and eastern Pacific, respectively. The western-to-eastern differences in the partitioning of inorganic bromine are explained by different abundances of ozone (O3, nitrogen dioxide (NO2, total inorganic chlorine (Cly, and the efficiency of heterogeneous reactions of bromine reservoirs (mostly BrONO2 and HBr occurring on ice crystals.

  6. Model improvements to simulate charging in SEM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arat, K. T.; Klimpel, T.; Hagen, C. W.

    2018-03-01

    Charging of insulators is a complex phenomenon to simulate since the accuracy of the simulations is very sensitive to the interaction of electrons with matter and electric fields. In this study, we report model improvements for a previously developed Monte-Carlo simulator to more accurately simulate samples that charge. The improvements include both modelling of low energy electron scattering and charging of insulators. The new first-principle scattering models provide a more realistic charge distribution cloud in the material, and a better match between non-charging simulations and experimental results. Improvements on charging models mainly focus on redistribution of the charge carriers in the material with an induced conductivity (EBIC) and a breakdown model, leading to a smoother distribution of the charges. Combined with a more accurate tracing of low energy electrons in the electric field, we managed to reproduce the dynamically changing charging contrast due to an induced positive surface potential.

  7. Variations in large-scale tropical cyclone genesis factors over the western North Pacific in the PMIP3 last millennium simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Qing; Wei, Ting; Zhang, Zhongshi

    2017-02-01

    Investigation of past tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the Western North Pacific (WNP) is potentially helpful to enable better understanding of future TC behaviors. In this study, we examine variations in large-scale environmental factors important to TC genesis in the last millennium simulations from the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (PMIP3). The results show that potential intensity, a theoretical prediction of the maximum TC intensity, is increased relative to the last millennium in the north part of the WNP in the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA; 950-1200 AD) while it is decreased in the Little Ice Age (LIA; 1600-1850 AD). Vertical wind shear that generally inhibits TC genesis is enhanced (reduced) to the south of 20°N and is reduced (enhanced) to the north in the MCA (LIA). Relative humidity (at 600 hPa) that measures the mid-tropospheric moisture content broadly shows an increase (decrease) in the MCA (LIA). A genesis potential index indicates that conditions are generally favorable (unfavorable) for TC formation in the WNP in the MCA (LIA), especially in the northern part. Taking changes in steering flows into account, there may be an increasing (decreasing) favorability for storm strikes in East Asia in the MCA (LIA). The estimated TC activity is consistent with the geological proxies in Japan, but contradicts with the typhoon records in southern China and Taiwan. This model-data discrepancy is attributed to the limitations in both simulations and reconstructions.

  8. Representation of tropical deep convection in atmospheric models – Part 2: Tracer transport

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. R. Hoyle

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available The tropical transport processes of 14 different models or model versions were compared, within the framework of the SCOUT-O3 (Stratospheric-Climate Links with Emphasis on the Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere project. The tested models range from the regional to the global scale, and include numerical weather prediction (NWP, chemical transport, and chemistry-climate models. Idealised tracers were used in order to prevent the model's chemistry schemes from influencing the results substantially, so that the effects of modelled transport could be isolated. We find large differences in the vertical transport of very short-lived tracers (with a lifetime of 6 h within the tropical troposphere. Peak convective outflow altitudes range from around 300 hPa to almost 100 hPa among the different models, and the upper tropospheric tracer mixing ratios differ by up to an order of magnitude. The timing of convective events is found to be different between the models, even among those which source their forcing data from the same NWP model (ECMWF. The differences are less pronounced for longer lived tracers, however they could have implications for modelling the halogen burden of the lowermost stratosphere through transport of species such as bromoform, or short-lived hydrocarbons into the lowermost stratosphere. The modelled tracer profiles are strongly influenced by the convective transport parameterisations, and different boundary layer mixing parameterisations also have a large impact on the modelled tracer profiles. Preferential locations for rapid transport from the surface into the upper troposphere are similar in all models, and are mostly concentrated over the western Pacific, the Maritime Continent and the Indian Ocean. In contrast, models do not indicate that upward transport is highest over western Africa.

  9. Tropically driven and externally forced patterns of Antarctic sea ice change: reconciling observed and modeled trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneider, David P.; Deser, Clara

    2017-09-01

    Recent work suggests that natural variability has played a significant role in the increase of Antarctic sea ice extent during 1979-2013. The ice extent has responded strongly to atmospheric circulation changes, including a deepened Amundsen Sea Low (ASL), which in part has been driven by tropical variability. Nonetheless, this increase has occurred in the context of externally forced climate change, and it has been difficult to reconcile observed and modeled Antarctic sea ice trends. To understand observed-model disparities, this work defines the internally driven and radiatively forced patterns of Antarctic sea ice change and exposes potential model biases using results from two sets of historical experiments of a coupled climate model compared with observations. One ensemble is constrained only by external factors such as greenhouse gases and stratospheric ozone, while the other explicitly accounts for the influence of tropical variability by specifying observed SST anomalies in the eastern tropical Pacific. The latter experiment reproduces the deepening of the ASL, which drives an increase in regional ice extent due to enhanced ice motion and sea surface cooling. However, the overall sea ice trend in every ensemble member of both experiments is characterized by ice loss and is dominated by the forced pattern, as given by the ensemble-mean of the first experiment. This pervasive ice loss is associated with a strong warming of the ocean mixed layer, suggesting that the ocean model does not locally store or export anomalous heat efficiently enough to maintain a surface environment conducive to sea ice expansion. The pervasive upper-ocean warming, not seen in observations, likely reflects ocean mean-state biases.

  10. Tropically driven and externally forced patterns of Antarctic sea ice change: reconciling observed and modeled trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneider, David P.; Deser, Clara

    2018-06-01

    Recent work suggests that natural variability has played a significant role in the increase of Antarctic sea ice extent during 1979-2013. The ice extent has responded strongly to atmospheric circulation changes, including a deepened Amundsen Sea Low (ASL), which in part has been driven by tropical variability. Nonetheless, this increase has occurred in the context of externally forced climate change, and it has been difficult to reconcile observed and modeled Antarctic sea ice trends. To understand observed-model disparities, this work defines the internally driven and radiatively forced patterns of Antarctic sea ice change and exposes potential model biases using results from two sets of historical experiments of a coupled climate model compared with observations. One ensemble is constrained only by external factors such as greenhouse gases and stratospheric ozone, while the other explicitly accounts for the influence of tropical variability by specifying observed SST anomalies in the eastern tropical Pacific. The latter experiment reproduces the deepening of the ASL, which drives an increase in regional ice extent due to enhanced ice motion and sea surface cooling. However, the overall sea ice trend in every ensemble member of both experiments is characterized by ice loss and is dominated by the forced pattern, as given by the ensemble-mean of the first experiment. This pervasive ice loss is associated with a strong warming of the ocean mixed layer, suggesting that the ocean model does not locally store or export anomalous heat efficiently enough to maintain a surface environment conducive to sea ice expansion. The pervasive upper-ocean warming, not seen in observations, likely reflects ocean mean-state biases.

  11. Tropical Pacific Climate, Carbon, and Ocean Biogeochemical Response to the Central American Seaway in a GFDL Earth System Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sentman, L. T.; Dunne, J. P.; Stouffer, R. J.; Krasting, J. P.; Wittenberg, A. T.; Toggweiler, J. R.; Broccoli, A. J.

    2017-12-01

    To explore the tropical Pacific climate, carbon, and ocean biogeochemical response to the shoaling and closure of the Central American Seaway during the Pliocene (5.3-2.6 Ma), we performed a suite of sensitivity experiments using the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Earth System Model, GFDL-ESM2G, varying only the seaway widths and sill depths. These novel ESM simulations include near-final closure of the seaway with a very narrow, 1º grid cell wide opening. Net mass transport through the seaway into the Caribbean is 20.5-23.1 Sv with a deep seaway, but only 14.1 Sv for the wide/shallow seaway because of the inter-basin bi-directional horizontal mass transport. Seaway transport originates from the Antarctic Circumpolar Current in the Pacific and rejoins it in the South Atlantic, reducing the Indonesian Throughflow and transporting heat and salt southward into the South Atlantic, in contrast to present-day and previous seaway simulations. Tropical Pacific mean climate and interannual variability is sensitive to the seaway shoaling, with the largest response to the wider/deeper seaway. In the tropical Pacific, the top 300-m warms 0.4-0.8°C, the equatorial east-west sea surface temperature gradient increases, the north-south sea surface temperature asymmetry at 110°W decreases, thermocline deepens 5-11 m, and the east-west thermocline gradient increases. In the Niño-3 region, ENSO amplitude increases, skewed toward more cold (La Niña) events, El Niño and La Niña develops earlier ( 3 months), the annual cycle weakens and the semi-annual and interannual cycles strengthen from increased symmetry of the north-south sea surface temperature gradient, and atmospheric global teleconnections strengthen with the seaway. The increase in global ocean overturning with the seaway results in a younger average ocean ideal age, reduced dissolved inorganic carbon inventory and marine net primary productivity, and altered inter-basin patterns of surface sediment carbonate

  12. The Brazilian Developments on the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (BRAMS 5.2): An Integrated Environmental Model Tuned for Tropical Areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freitas, Saulo R.; Panetta, Jairo; Longo, Karla M.; Rodrigues, Luiz F.; Moreira, Demerval S.; Rosario, Nilton E.; Silva Dias, Pedro L.; Silva Dias, Maria A. F.; Souza, Enio P.; Freitas, Edmilson D.; hide

    2017-01-01

    We present a new version of the Brazilian developments on the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System where different previous versions for weather, chemistry and carbon cycle were unified in a single integrated software system. The new version also has a new set of state-of-the-art physical parameterizations and greater computational parallel and memory usage efficiency. Together with the description of the main features are examples of the quality of the transport scheme for scalars, radiative fluxes on surface and model simulation of rainfall systems over South America in different spatial resolutions using a scale-aware convective parameterization. Besides, the simulation of the diurnal cycle of the convection and carbon dioxide concentration over the Amazon Basin, as well as carbon dioxide fluxes from biogenic processes over a large portion of South America are shown. Atmospheric chemistry examples present model performance in simulating near-surface carbon monoxide and ozone in Amazon Basin and Rio de Janeiro megacity. For tracer transport and dispersion, it is demonstrated the model capabilities to simulate the volcanic ash 3-d redistribution associated with the eruption of a Chilean volcano. Then, the gain of computational efficiency is described with some details. BRAMS has been applied for research and operational forecasting mainly in South America. Model results from the operational weather forecast of BRAMS on 5 km grid spacing in the Center for Weather Forecasting and Climate Studies, INPE/Brazil, since 2013 are used to quantify the model skill of near surface variables and rainfall. The scores show the reliability of BRAMS for the tropical and subtropical areas of South America. Requirements for keeping this modeling system competitive regarding on its functionalities and skills are discussed. At last, we highlight the relevant contribution of this work on the building up of a South American community of model developers.

  13. Whole-building Hygrothermal Simulation Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rode, Carsten; Grau, Karl

    2003-01-01

    An existing integrated simulation tool for dynamic thermal simulation of building was extended with a transient model for moisture release and uptake in building materials. Validation of the new model was begun with comparison against measurements in an outdoor test cell furnished with single...... materials. Almost quasi-steady, cyclic experiments were used to compare the indoor humidity variation and the numerical results of the integrated simulation tool with the new moisture model. Except for the case with chipboard as furnishing, the predictions of indoor humidity with the detailed model were...

  14. APPRAISAL OF THE SNAP MODEL FOR PREDICTING NITROGEN MINERALIZATION IN TROPICAL SOILS UNDER EUCALYPTUS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philip James Smethurst

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available The Soil Nitrogen Availability Predictor (SNAP model predicts daily and annual rates of net N mineralization (NNM based on daily weather measurements, daily predictions of soil water and soil temperature, and on temperature and moisture modifiers obtained during aerobic incubation (basal rate. The model was based on in situ measurements of NNM in Australian soils under temperate climate. The purpose of this study was to assess this model for use in tropical soils under eucalyptus plantations in São Paulo State, Brazil. Based on field incubations for one month in three, NNM rates were measured at 11 sites (0-20 cm layer for 21 months. The basal rate was determined in in situ incubations during moist and warm periods (January to March. Annual rates of 150-350 kg ha-1 yr-1 NNM predicted by the SNAP model were reasonably accurate (R2 = 0.84. In other periods, at lower moisture and temperature, NNM rates were overestimated. Therefore, if used carefully, the model can provide adequate predictions of annual NNM and may be useful in practical applications. For NNM predictions for shorter periods than a year or under suboptimal incubation conditions, the temperature and moisture modifiers need to be recalibrated for tropical conditions.

  15. Simulation of the transfer of hydrocarbons in unconfined aquifer in tropical zone: the case of benzene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agnès Kouamé, Amenan; Jaboyedoff, Michel; Derron, Marc-Henri; Kouamé, Kan Jean

    2016-04-01

    Groundwater is the largest global reserves of continental freshwater (Bosca, 2002) and also an important source of drinking water in many parts of the world (Brassington. 2007). However, this resource is today threatened by pollution such as inadequate supply of drinking water services, inaccessibility and / or dilapidated sanitation facilities and excessive use fertilizers, and industrial wastewater and solid waste pesticides (Boubacar, 2010) and the rapid urbanization in great cities (Foster, 2001). Abidjan, the largest city in Côte d'Ivoire is also facing pollution problems such as illegal dumping of waste, waste oil spilled garages, land application of domestic and industrial wastewater, automotive workshops, overexploitation of sand in the Ebrié lagoon, open waste dump of Akouédo and the spill of about 400,000 liters of toxic waste from the ship "Probo Koala" in August 2006. The Abidjan aquifer or the Continental terminal aquifer is the main source of supply drinking water. It is mainly composed of sandy and it is an unconfined aquifer as a whole (Jourda, 1987). According to Gilli and al., (2012), the recharge of unconfined aquifers comes mostly from the infiltration of surface water including rainwater. These waters on their transport in the basement could carry certain pollutants into groundwater. Kouamé (2007) reports a potential groundwater pollution of the "Continental terminal" aquifer in Abidjan. In addition to the cases cited pollution, there has been a proliferation of service stations in the district of Abidjan and this can cause possible pollution. We deemed it necessary to conduct a study on the groundwater pollution of Abidjan by oil in general. We chose benzene to simulate organic pollution in case of accident. To observe the likely evolution of such contaminants in the subsurface, we developed hydrogeological models that couple groundwater flow and benzene transport with FEFLOW software in steady and transient states. The models are composed

  16. Simulation modeling for the health care manager.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kennedy, Michael H

    2009-01-01

    This article addresses the use of simulation software to solve administrative problems faced by health care managers. Spreadsheet add-ins, process simulation software, and discrete event simulation software are available at a range of costs and complexity. All use the Monte Carlo method to realistically integrate probability distributions into models of the health care environment. Problems typically addressed by health care simulation modeling are facility planning, resource allocation, staffing, patient flow and wait time, routing and transportation, supply chain management, and process improvement.

  17. Protein Simulation Data in the Relational Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simms, Andrew M; Daggett, Valerie

    2012-10-01

    High performance computing is leading to unprecedented volumes of data. Relational databases offer a robust and scalable model for storing and analyzing scientific data. However, these features do not come without a cost-significant design effort is required to build a functional and efficient repository. Modeling protein simulation data in a relational database presents several challenges: the data captured from individual simulations are large, multi-dimensional, and must integrate with both simulation software and external data sites. Here we present the dimensional design and relational implementation of a comprehensive data warehouse for storing and analyzing molecular dynamics simulations using SQL Server.

  18. Modeling and simulation of blood collection systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alfonso, Edgar; Xie, Xiaolan; Augusto, Vincent; Garraud, Olivier

    2012-03-01

    This paper addresses the modeling and simulation of blood collection systems in France for both fixed site and mobile blood collection with walk in whole blood donors and scheduled plasma and platelet donors. Petri net models are first proposed to precisely describe different blood collection processes, donor behaviors, their material/human resource requirements and relevant regulations. Petri net models are then enriched with quantitative modeling of donor arrivals, donor behaviors, activity times and resource capacity. Relevant performance indicators are defined. The resulting simulation models can be straightforwardly implemented with any simulation language. Numerical experiments are performed to show how the simulation models can be used to select, for different walk in donor arrival patterns, appropriate human resource planning and donor appointment strategies.

  19. Specific and generic stem biomass and volume models of tree species in a West African tropical semi-deciduous forest

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Goussanou, Cédric A.; Guendehou, Sabin; Assogbadjo, Achille E.

    2016-01-01

    The quantification of the contribution of tropical forests to global carbon stocks and climate change mitigation requires availability of data and tools such as allometric equations. This study made available volume and biomass models for eighteen tree species in a semi-deciduous tropical forest...... in West Africa. Generic models were also developed for the forest ecosystem, and basic wood density determined for the tree species. Non-destructive sampling approach was carried out on five hundred and one sample trees to analyse stem volume and biomass. From the modelling of volume and biomass...... enabled to conclude that the non-destructive sampling was a good approach to determining reliable basic wood density. The comparative analysis of species-specific models in this study with selected generic models for tropical forests indicated low probability to identify effective generic models with good...

  20. Modeling and Simulation of Matrix Converter

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liu, Fu-rong; Klumpner, Christian; Blaabjerg, Frede

    2005-01-01

    This paper discusses the modeling and simulation of matrix converter. Two models of matrix converter are presented: one is based on indirect space vector modulation and the other is based on power balance equation. The basis of these two models is• given and the process on modeling is introduced...

  1. Impact of ocean model resolution on CCSM climate simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kirtman, Ben P.; Rousset, Clement; Siqueira, Leo [University of Miami, Rosenstiel School for Marine and Atmospheric Science, Coral Gables, FL (United States); Bitz, Cecilia [University of Washington, Department of Atmospheric Science, Seattle, WA (United States); Bryan, Frank; Dennis, John; Hearn, Nathan; Loft, Richard; Tomas, Robert; Vertenstein, Mariana [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Collins, William [University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA (United States); Kinter, James L.; Stan, Cristiana [Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD (United States); George Mason University, Fairfax, VA (United States)

    2012-09-15

    The current literature provides compelling evidence suggesting that an eddy-resolving (as opposed to eddy-permitting or eddy-parameterized) ocean component model will significantly impact the simulation of the large-scale climate, although this has not been fully tested to date in multi-decadal global coupled climate simulations. The purpose of this paper is to examine how resolved ocean fronts and eddies impact the simulation of large-scale climate. The model used for this study is the NCAR Community Climate System Model version 3.5 (CCSM3.5) - the forerunner to CCSM4. Two experiments are reported here. The control experiment is a 155-year present-day climate simulation using a 0.5 atmosphere component (zonal resolution 0.625 meridional resolution 0.5 ; land surface component at the same resolution) coupled to ocean and sea-ice components with zonal resolution of 1.2 and meridional resolution varying from 0.27 at the equator to 0.54 in the mid-latitudes. The second simulation uses the same atmospheric and land-surface models coupled to eddy-resolving 0.1 ocean and sea-ice component models. The simulations are compared in terms of how the representation of smaller scale features in the time mean ocean circulation and ocean eddies impact the mean and variable climate. In terms of the global mean surface temperature, the enhanced ocean resolution leads to a ubiquitous surface warming with a global mean surface temperature increase of about 0.2 C relative to the control. The warming is largest in the Arctic and regions of strong ocean fronts and ocean eddy activity (i.e., Southern Ocean, western boundary currents). The Arctic warming is associated with significant losses of sea-ice in the high-resolution simulation. The sea surface temperature gradients in the North Atlantic, in particular, are better resolved in the high-resolution model leading to significantly sharper temperature gradients and associated large-scale shifts in the rainfall. In the extra-tropics, the

  2. Simulation models for tokamak plasmas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dimits, A.M.; Cohen, B.I.

    1992-01-01

    Two developments in the nonlinear simulation of tokamak plasmas are described: (A) Simulation algorithms that use quasiballooning coordinates have been implemented in a 3D fluid code and a 3D partially linearized (Δf) particle code. In quasiballooning coordinates, one of the coordinate directions is closely aligned with that of the magnetic field, allowing both optimal use of the grid resolution for structures highly elongated along the magnetic field as well as implementation of the correct periodicity conditions with no discontinuities in the toroidal direction. (B) Progress on the implementation of a likeparticle collision operator suitable for use in partially linearized particle codes is reported. The binary collision approach is shown to be unusable for this purpose. The algorithm under development is a complete version of the test-particle plus source-field approach that was suggested and partially implemented by Xu and Rosenbluth

  3. A new synoptic scale resolving global climate simulation using the Community Earth System Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Small, R. Justin; Bacmeister, Julio; Bailey, David; Baker, Allison; Bishop, Stuart; Bryan, Frank; Caron, Julie; Dennis, John; Gent, Peter; Hsu, Hsiao-ming; Jochum, Markus; Lawrence, David; Muñoz, Ernesto; diNezio, Pedro; Scheitlin, Tim; Tomas, Robert; Tribbia, Joseph; Tseng, Yu-heng; Vertenstein, Mariana

    2014-12-01

    High-resolution global climate modeling holds the promise of capturing planetary-scale climate modes and small-scale (regional and sometimes extreme) features simultaneously, including their mutual interaction. This paper discusses a new state-of-the-art high-resolution Community Earth System Model (CESM) simulation that was performed with these goals in mind. The atmospheric component was at 0.25° grid spacing, and ocean component at 0.1°. One hundred years of "present-day" simulation were completed. Major results were that annual mean sea surface temperature (SST) in the equatorial Pacific and El-Niño Southern Oscillation variability were well simulated compared to standard resolution models. Tropical and southern Atlantic SST also had much reduced bias compared to previous versions of the model. In addition, the high resolution of the model enabled small-scale features of the climate system to be represented, such as air-sea interaction over ocean frontal zones, mesoscale systems generated by the Rockies, and Tropical Cyclones. Associated single component runs and standard resolution coupled runs are used to help attribute the strengths and weaknesses of the fully coupled run. The high-resolution run employed 23,404 cores, costing 250 thousand processor-hours per simulated year and made about two simulated years per day on the NCAR-Wyoming supercomputer "Yellowstone."

  4. Sensitivity Analysis of Biome-Bgc Model for Dry Tropical Forests of Vindhyan Highlands, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, M.; Raghubanshi, A. S.

    2011-08-01

    A process-based model BIOME-BGC was run for sensitivity analysis to see the effect of ecophysiological parameters on net primary production (NPP) of dry tropical forest of India. The sensitivity test reveals that the forest NPP was highly sensitive to the following ecophysiological parameters: Canopy light extinction coefficient (k), Canopy average specific leaf area (SLA), New stem C : New leaf C (SC:LC), Maximum stomatal conductance (gs,max), C:N of fine roots (C:Nfr), All-sided to projected leaf area ratio and Canopy water interception coefficient (Wint). Therefore, these parameters need more precision and attention during estimation and observation in the field studies.

  5. SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS OF BIOME-BGC MODEL FOR DRY TROPICAL FORESTS OF VINDHYAN HIGHLANDS, INDIA

    OpenAIRE

    M. Kumar; A. S. Raghubanshi

    2012-01-01

    A process-based model BIOME-BGC was run for sensitivity analysis to see the effect of ecophysiological parameters on net primary production (NPP) of dry tropical forest of India. The sensitivity test reveals that the forest NPP was highly sensitive to the following ecophysiological parameters: Canopy light extinction coefficient (k), Canopy average specific leaf area (SLA), New stem C : New leaf C (SC:LC), Maximum stomatal conductance (gs,max), C:N of fine roots (C:Nfr), All-sided to...

  6. A model management system for combat simulation

    OpenAIRE

    Dolk, Daniel R.

    1986-01-01

    The design and implementation of a model management system to support combat modeling is discussed. Structured modeling is introduced as a formalism for representing mathematical models. A relational information resource dictionary system is developed which can accommodate structured models. An implementation is described. Structured modeling is then compared to Jackson System Development (JSD) as a methodology for facilitating discrete event simulation. JSD is currently better at representin...

  7. HVDC System Characteristics and Simulation Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moon, S.I.; Han, B.M.; Jang, G.S. [Electric Enginnering and Science Research Institute, Seoul (Korea)

    2001-07-01

    This report deals with the AC-DC power system simulation method by PSS/E and EUROSTAG for the development of a strategy for the reliable operation of the Cheju-Haenam interconnected system. The simulation using both programs is performed to analyze HVDC simulation models. In addition, the control characteristics of the Cheju-Haenam HVDC system as well as Cheju AC system characteristics are described in this work. (author). 104 figs., 8 tabs.

  8. Physically realistic modeling of maritime training simulation

    OpenAIRE

    Cieutat , Jean-Marc

    2003-01-01

    Maritime training simulation is an important matter of maritime teaching, which requires a lot of scientific and technical skills.In this framework, where the real time constraint has to be maintained, all physical phenomena cannot be studied; the most visual physical phenomena relating to the natural elements and the ship behaviour are reproduced only. Our swell model, based on a surface wave simulation approach, permits to simulate the shape and the propagation of a regular train of waves f...

  9. Software-Engineering Process Simulation (SEPS) model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, C. Y.; Abdel-Hamid, T.; Sherif, J. S.

    1992-01-01

    The Software Engineering Process Simulation (SEPS) model is described which was developed at JPL. SEPS is a dynamic simulation model of the software project development process. It uses the feedback principles of system dynamics to simulate the dynamic interactions among various software life cycle development activities and management decision making processes. The model is designed to be a planning tool to examine tradeoffs of cost, schedule, and functionality, and to test the implications of different managerial policies on a project's outcome. Furthermore, SEPS will enable software managers to gain a better understanding of the dynamics of software project development and perform postmodern assessments.

  10. Systematic modelling and simulation of refrigeration systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Bjarne D.; Jakobsen, Arne

    1998-01-01

    The task of developing a simulation model of a refrigeration system can be very difficult and time consuming. In order for this process to be effective, a systematic method for developing the system model is required. This method should aim at guiding the developer to clarify the purpose...... of the simulation, to select appropriate component models and to set up the equations in a well-arranged way. In this paper the outline of such a method is proposed and examples showing the use of this method for simulation of refrigeration systems are given....

  11. Impact of period and timescale of FDDA analysis nudging on the numerical simulation of tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal

    KAUST Repository

    Viswanadhapalli, Yesubabu

    2014-06-22

    In this study, the impact of four-dimensional data assimilation (FDDA) analysis nudging is examined on the prediction of tropical cyclones (TC) in the Bay of Bengal to determine the optimum period and timescale of nudging. Six TCs (SIDR: November 13–16, 2007; NARGIS: April 29–May 02, 2008; NISHA: November 25–28, 2008; AILA: May 23–26, 2009; LAILA: May 18–21, 2010; JAL: November 04–07, 2010) were simulated with a doubly nested Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with a horizontal resolution of 9 km in the inner domain. In the control run for each cyclone, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS) analysis and forecasts at 0.5_ resolution are used for initial and boundary conditions. In the FDDA experiments available surface, upper air observations obtained from NCEP Atmospheric Data Project (ADP) data sets were used for assimilation after merging with the first guess through objective analysis procedure. Analysis nudging experiments with different nudging periods (6, 12, 18, and 24 h) indicated a period of 18 or 24 h of nudging during the pre-forecast stage provides maximum impact on simulations in terms of minimum track and intensity forecasts. To determine the optimum timescale of nudging, two cyclone cases (NARGIS: April 28–May 02, 2008; NISHA: November 25–28, 2008) were simulated varying the inverse timescales as 1.0e-4 to 5.0e-4 s−1 in steps of 1.0e-4 s−1. A positive impact of assimilation is found on the simulated characteristics with a nudging coefficient of either 3.0e-4 or 4.0e-4 s−1 which corresponds to a timescale of about 1 h for nudging dynamic (u,v) and thermodynamical (t,q) fields.

  12. Deriving simulators for hybrid Chi models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beek, van D.A.; Man, K.L.; Reniers, M.A.; Rooda, J.E.; Schiffelers, R.R.H.

    2006-01-01

    The hybrid Chi language is formalism for modeling, simulation and verification of hybrid systems. The formal semantics of hybrid Chi allows the definition of provably correct implementations for simulation, verification and realtime control. This paper discusses the principles of deriving an

  13. Modeling and simulation for RF system design

    CERN Document Server

    Frevert, Ronny; Jancke, Roland; Knöchel, Uwe; Schwarz, Peter; Kakerow, Ralf; Darianian, Mohsen

    2005-01-01

    Focusing on RF specific modeling and simulation methods, and system and circuit level descriptions, this work contains application-oriented training material. Accompanied by a CD- ROM, it combines the presentation of a mixed-signal design flow, an introduction into VHDL-AMS and Verilog-A, and the application of commercially available simulators.

  14. Calculation of Individual Tree Water Use in a Bornean Tropical Rain Forest Using Individual-Based Dynamic Vegetation Model SEIB-DGVM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakai, T.; Kumagai, T.; Saito, T.; Matsumoto, K.; Kume, T.; Nakagawa, M.; Sato, H.

    2015-12-01

    Bornean tropical rain forests are among the moistest biomes of the world with abundant rainfall throughout the year, and considered to be vulnerable to a change in the rainfall regime; e.g., high tree mortality was reported in such forests induced by a severe drought associated with the ENSO event in 1997-1998. In order to assess the effect (risk) of future climate change on eco-hydrology in such tropical rain forests, it is important to understand the water use of trees individually, because the vulnerability or mortality of trees against climate change can depend on the size of trees. Therefore, we refined the Spatially Explicit Individual-Based Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (SEIB-DGVM) so that the transpiration and its control by stomata are calculated for each individual tree. By using this model, we simulated the transpiration of each tree and its DBH-size dependency, and successfully reproduced the measured data of sap flow of trees and eddy covariance flux data obtained in a Bornean lowland tropical rain forest in Lambir Hills National Park, Sarawak, Malaysia.

  15. A Numerical Study of the Urban Heat Island in the Coastal Tropical City of San Juan, Puerto Rico: Model Validation and Impacts of LCLU Changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Comarazamy, Daniel E.; Gonzalez, Jorge E.; Luvall, Jeff; Rickman, Douglas L.

    2007-01-01

    Urban sprawls in tropical locations are rapidly accelerating and it is more evident in islands where a large percentage of the population resides along the coasts. This paper focuses on the analysis of the impacts of land use and land cover for urbanization in the tropical coastal city of San Juan, in the tropical island of Puerto Rico. A mesoscale numerical model, the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS), is used to study specific characteristics and patterns of the urban heat island in the San Juan Metropolitan Area (SJMA), the most noticeable urban core of the Caribbean. The research present in this paper makes use of the observations obtained during the airborne San Juan Atlas Mission in two ways. First, surface and rawinsonde data are used to validate the atmospheric model yielding satisfactory results. Second, airborne remote sensing information is used to update the model's surface characteristics to obtain a detailed configuration of the SJMA in order to perform the LCLU changes impact analysis. This analysis showed that the presence of San Juan has an impact reflected in higher air temperatures over the area occupied by the city, with positive values of up to 2.5 C, for the simulations that have specified urban LCLU indexes in the bottom boundary. One interesting result of the impact analysis was the finding of a precipitation disturbance shown as a difference in total accumulated rainfall between simulation with the city and with a potential natural vegetation induced by the presence of the urban area. Model results indicate that the urban-induced cloud formation and precipitation development occur mainly downwind of the city, including the accumulated precipitation. This spatial pattern can be explained by the presence of a-larger urbanized area in the southwest sector of the city, and of the approaching northeasterly trade winds.

  16. Magnetosphere Modeling: From Cartoons to Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gombosi, T. I.

    2017-12-01

    Over the last half a century physics-based global computer simulations became a bridge between experiment and basic theory and now it represents the "third pillar" of geospace research. Today, many of our scientific publications utilize large-scale simulations to interpret observations, test new ideas, plan campaigns, or design new instruments. Realistic simulations of the complex Sun-Earth system have been made possible by the dramatically increased power of both computing hardware and numerical algorithms. Early magnetosphere models were based on simple E&M concepts (like the Chapman-Ferraro cavity) and hydrodynamic analogies (bow shock). At the beginning of the space age current system models were developed culminating in the sophisticated Tsyganenko-type description of the magnetic configuration. The first 3D MHD simulations of the magnetosphere were published in the early 1980s. A decade later there were several competing global models that were able to reproduce many fundamental properties of the magnetosphere. The leading models included the impact of the ionosphere by using a height-integrated electric potential description. Dynamic coupling of global and regional models started in the early 2000s by integrating a ring current and a global magnetosphere model. It has been recognized for quite some time that plasma kinetic effects play an important role. Presently, global hybrid simulations of the dynamic magnetosphere are expected to be possible on exascale supercomputers, while fully kinetic simulations with realistic mass ratios are still decades away. In the 2010s several groups started to experiment with PIC simulations embedded in large-scale 3D MHD models. Presently this integrated MHD-PIC approach is at the forefront of magnetosphere simulations and this technique is expected to lead to some important advances in our understanding of magnetosheric physics. This talk will review the evolution of magnetosphere modeling from cartoons to current systems

  17. Modeling and simulation of complex systems a framework for efficient agent-based modeling and simulation

    CERN Document Server

    Siegfried, Robert

    2014-01-01

    Robert Siegfried presents a framework for efficient agent-based modeling and simulation of complex systems. He compares different approaches for describing structure and dynamics of agent-based models in detail. Based on this evaluation the author introduces the "General Reference Model for Agent-based Modeling and Simulation" (GRAMS). Furthermore he presents parallel and distributed simulation approaches for execution of agent-based models -from small scale to very large scale. The author shows how agent-based models may be executed by different simulation engines that utilize underlying hard

  18. Influence of landscape heterogeneity on water available to tropical forests in an Amazonian catchment and implications for modeling drought response

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, Yilin; Leung, L. Ruby; Duan, Zhuoran; Wigmosta, Mark S.; Maxwell, Reed M.; Chambers, Jeffrey Q.; Tomasella, Javier

    2017-08-01

    The Amazon basin has experienced periodic droughts in the past, and intense and frequent droughts are predicted in the future. Landscape heterogeneity could play an important role in how tropical forests respond to drought by influencing water available to plants. Using the one-dimensional ACME Land Model and the three-dimensional ParFlow variably saturated flow model, numerical experiments were performed for a catchment in central Amazon to elucidate processes that influence water available for plant use and provide insights for improving Earth system models. Results from ParFlow show that topography has a dominant influence on groundwater table and runoff through lateral flow. Without any representations of lateral processes, ALM simulates very different seasonal variations in groundwater table and runoff compared to ParFlow even if it is able to reproduce the long-term spatial average groundwater table of ParFlow through simple parameter calibration. In the ParFlow simulations, even in the plateau with much deeper water table depth during the dry season in the drought year of 2005, plant transpiration is not water stressed as the soil saturation is still sufficient for the stomata to be fully open based on the empirical wilting formulation in the models. This finding is insensitive to uncertainty in atmospheric forcing and soil parameters, but the empirical wilting formulation is an important factor that should be addressed using observations and modeling of coupled plant hydraulics-soil hydrology processes in future studies. The results could be applicable to other catchments in the Amazon basin with similar seasonal variability and hydrologic regimes.

  19. Land-use change in oil palm dominated tropical landscapes-An agent-based model to explore ecological and socio-economic trade-offs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dislich, Claudia; Hettig, Elisabeth; Salecker, Jan; Heinonen, Johannes; Lay, Jann; Meyer, Katrin M; Wiegand, Kerstin; Tarigan, Suria

    2018-01-01

    Land-use changes have dramatically transformed tropical landscapes. We describe an ecological-economic land-use change model as an integrated, exploratory tool used to analyze how tropical land-use change affects ecological and socio-economic functions. The model analysis seeks to determine what kind of landscape mosaic can improve the ensemble of ecosystem functioning, biodiversity, and economic benefit based on the synergies and trade-offs that we have to account for. More specifically, (1) how do specific ecosystem functions, such as carbon storage, and economic functions, such as household consumption, relate to each other? (2) How do external factors, such as the output prices of crops, affect these relationships? (3) How do these relationships change when production inefficiency differs between smallholder farmers and learning is incorporated? We initialize the ecological-economic model with artificially generated land-use maps parameterized to our study region. The economic sub-model simulates smallholder land-use management decisions based on a profit maximization assumption. Each household determines factor inputs for all household fields and decides on land-use change based on available wealth. The ecological sub-model includes a simple account of carbon sequestration in above-ground and below-ground vegetation. We demonstrate model capabilities with results on household consumption and carbon sequestration from different output price and farming efficiency scenarios. The overall results reveal complex interactions between the economic and ecological spheres. For instance, model scenarios with heterogeneous crop-specific household productivity reveal a comparatively high inertia of land-use change. Our model analysis even shows such an increased temporal stability in landscape composition and carbon stocks of the agricultural area under dynamic price trends. These findings underline the utility of ecological-economic models, such as ours, to act as

  20. NUMERICAL SIMULATION AND MODELING OF UNSTEADY FLOW ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2014-06-30

    Jun 30, 2014 ... objective of this study is to control the simulation of unsteady flows around structures. ... Aerospace, our results were in good agreement with experimental .... Two-Equation Eddy-Viscosity Turbulence Models for Engineering.

  1. SEIR model simulation for Hepatitis B

    Science.gov (United States)

    Side, Syafruddin; Irwan, Mulbar, Usman; Sanusi, Wahidah

    2017-09-01

    Mathematical modelling and simulation for Hepatitis B discuss in this paper. Population devided by four variables, namely: Susceptible, Exposed, Infected and Recovered (SEIR). Several factors affect the population in this model is vaccination, immigration and emigration that occurred in the population. SEIR Model obtained Ordinary Differential Equation (ODE) non-linear System 4-D which then reduces to 3-D. SEIR model simulation undertaken to predict the number of Hepatitis B cases. The results of the simulation indicates the number of Hepatitis B cases will increase and then decrease for several months. The result of simulation using the number of case in Makassar also found the basic reproduction number less than one, that means, Makassar city is not an endemic area of Hepatitis B.

  2. A Stochastic Model of Space-Time Variability of Tropical Rainfall: I. Statistics of Spatial Averages

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kundu, Prasun K.; Bell, Thomas L.; Lau, William K. M. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    Global maps of rainfall are of great importance in connection with modeling of the earth s climate. Comparison between the maps of rainfall predicted by computer-generated climate models with observation provides a sensitive test for these models. To make such a comparison, one typically needs the total precipitation amount over a large area, which could be hundreds of kilometers in size over extended periods of time of order days or months. This presents a difficult problem since rain varies greatly from place to place as well as in time. Remote sensing methods using ground radar or satellites detect rain over a large area by essentially taking a series of snapshots at infrequent intervals and indirectly deriving the average rain intensity within a collection of pixels , usually several kilometers in size. They measure area average of rain at a particular instant. Rain gauges, on the other hand, record rain accumulation continuously in time but only over a very small area tens of centimeters across, say, the size of a dinner plate. They measure only a time average at a single location. In making use of either method one needs to fill in the gaps in the observation - either the gaps in the area covered or the gaps in time of observation. This involves using statistical models to obtain information about the rain that is missed from what is actually detected. This paper investigates such a statistical model and validates it with rain data collected over the tropical Western Pacific from ship borne radars during TOGA COARE (Tropical Oceans Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Response Experiment). The model incorporates a number of commonly observed features of rain. While rain varies rapidly with location and time, the variability diminishes when averaged over larger areas or longer periods of time. Moreover, rain is patchy in nature - at any instant on the average only a certain fraction of the observed pixels contain rain. The fraction of area covered by

  3. Impacts of convection schemes on simulating tropical-temperate troughs over southern Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Tozuka, T

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available simulations of key aspects of the summer (November–February) rainfall, such as the spatial distribution of total rainfall and the percentage of rainfall associated with TTTs. However, one version has a large bias in the onset of the rainy season. Results from...

  4. Simulation of Transcritical CO2 Refrigeration System with Booster Hot Gas Bypass in Tropical Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santosa, I. D. M. C.; Sudirman; Waisnawa, IGNS; Sunu, PW; Temaja, IW

    2018-01-01

    A Simulation computer becomes significant important for performance analysis since there is high cost and time allocation to build an experimental rig, especially for CO2 refrigeration system. Besides, to modify the rig also need additional cos and time. One of computer program simulation that is very eligible to refrigeration system is Engineering Equation System (EES). In term of CO2 refrigeration system, environmental issues becomes priority on the refrigeration system development since the Carbon dioxide (CO2) is natural and clean refrigerant. This study aims is to analysis the EES simulation effectiveness to perform CO2 transcritical refrigeration system with booster hot gas bypass in high outdoor temperature. The research was carried out by theoretical study and numerical analysis of the refrigeration system using the EES program. Data input and simulation validation were obtained from experimental and secondary data. The result showed that the coefficient of performance (COP) decreased gradually with the outdoor temperature variation increasing. The results show the program can calculate the performance of the refrigeration system with quick running time and accurate. So, it will be significant important for the preliminary reference to improve the CO2 refrigeration system design for the hot climate temperature.

  5. The Influence of Volcanic Eruptions on the Climate of Tropical South America During the Last Millennium in an Isotope-Enabled General Circulation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colose, Christopher M.; LeGrande, Allegra N.; Vuille, Mathias

    2016-01-01

    Currently, little is known on how volcanic eruptions impact large-scale climate phenomena such as South American paleo-intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) position and summer monsoon behavior. In this paper, an analysis of observations and model simulations is employed to assess the influence of large volcanic eruptions on the climate of tropical South America. This problem is first considered for historically recent volcanic episodes for which more observations are available but where fewer events exist and the confounding effects of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) lead to inconclusive interpretation of the impact of volcanic eruptions at the continental scale. Therefore, we also examine a greater number of reconstructed volcanic events for the period 850 CE to present that are incorporated into the NASA GISS ModelE2-R simulation of the last millennium. An advantage of this model is its ability to explicitly track water isotopologues throughout the hydrologic cycle and simulating the isotopic imprint following a large eruption. This effectively removes a degree of uncertainty associated with error-prone conversion of isotopic signals into climate variables, and allows for a direct comparison between GISS simulations and paleoclimate proxy records. Our analysis reveals that both precipitation and oxygen isotope variability respond with a distinct seasonal and spatial structure across tropical South America following an eruption. During austral winter, the heavy oxygen isotope in precipitation is enriched, likely due to reduced moisture convergence in the ITCZ domain and reduced rainfall over northern South America. During austral summer, however, more negative values of the precipitation isotopic composition are simulated over Amazonia, despite reductions in rainfall, suggesting that the isotopic response is not a simple function of the "amount effect". During the South American monsoon season, the amplitude of the temperature response to volcanic forcing is

  6. Supplement of: The Influence of Volcanic Eruptions on the Climate of Tropical South America During the Last Millennium in an Isotope-Enabled General Circulation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colose, Christopher; LeGrande, Allegra N.; Vuille, Mathias

    2016-01-01

    Currently, little is known on how volcanic eruptions impact large-scale climate phenomena such as South American paleo-intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) position and summer monsoon behavior. In this paper, an analysis of observations and model simulations is employed to assess the influence of large volcanic eruptions on the climate of tropical South America. This problem is first considered for historically recent volcanic episodes for which more observations are available but where fewer events exist and the confounding effects of El NioSouthern Oscillation (ENSO) lead to inconclusive interpretation of the impact of volcanic eruptions at the continental scale. Therefore, we also examine a greater number of reconstructed volcanic events for the period 850CE to present that are incorporated into the NASA GISS ModelE2-R simulation of the last millennium.An advantage of this model is its ability to explicitly track water isotopologues throughout the hydrologic cycle and simulating the isotopic imprint following a large eruption. This effectively removes a degree of uncertainty associated with error-prone conversion of isotopic signals into climate variables, and allows for a direct comparison between GISS simulations and paleoclimate proxy records.Our analysis reveals that both precipitation and oxygen isotope variability respond with a distinct seasonal and spatial structure across tropical South America following an eruption. During austral winter, the heavy oxygen isotope in precipitation is enriched, likely due to reduced moisture convergence in the ITCZ domain and reduced rainfall over northern South America. During austral summer, however, more negative values of the precipitation isotopic composition are simulated over Amazonia, despite reductions in rainfall, suggesting that the isotopic response is not a simple function of the amount effect. During the South American monsoon season, the amplitude of the temperature response to volcanic forcing is larger

  7. Maintenance Personnel Performance Simulation (MAPPS) model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Siegel, A.I.; Bartter, W.D.; Wolf, J.J.; Knee, H.E.; Haas, P.M.

    1984-01-01

    A stochastic computer model for simulating the actions and behavior of nuclear power plant maintenance personnel is described. The model considers personnel, environmental, and motivational variables to yield predictions of maintenance performance quality and time to perform. The mode has been fully developed and sensitivity tested. Additional evaluation of the model is now taking place

  8. Computer simulations of the random barrier model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schrøder, Thomas; Dyre, Jeppe

    2002-01-01

    A brief review of experimental facts regarding ac electronic and ionic conduction in disordered solids is given followed by a discussion of what is perhaps the simplest realistic model, the random barrier model (symmetric hopping model). Results from large scale computer simulations are presented...

  9. Turbine modelling for real time simulators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oliveira Barroso, A.C. de; Araujo Filho, F. de

    1992-01-01

    A model for vapor turbines and its peripherals has been developed. All the important variables have been included and emphasis has been given for the computational efficiency to obtain a model able to simulate all the modeled equipment. (A.C.A.S.)

  10. Alleviating tropical Atlantic sector biases in the Kiel climate model by enhancing horizontal and vertical atmosphere model resolution: climatology and interannual variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harlaß, Jan; Latif, Mojib; Park, Wonsun

    2018-04-01

    We investigate the quality of simulating tropical Atlantic (TA) sector climatology and interannual variability in integrations of the Kiel climate model (KCM) with varying atmosphere model resolution. The ocean model resolution is kept fixed. A reasonable simulation of TA sector annual-mean climate, seasonal cycle and interannual variability can only be achieved at sufficiently high horizontal and vertical atmospheric resolution. Two major reasons for the improvements are identified. First, the western equatorial Atlantic westerly surface wind bias in spring can be largely eliminated, which is explained by a better representation of meridional and especially vertical zonal momentum transport. The enhanced atmospheric circulation along the equator in turn greatly improves the thermal structure of the upper equatorial Atlantic with much reduced warm sea surface temperature (SST) biases. Second, the coastline in the southeastern TA and steep orography are better resolved at high resolution, which improves wind structure and in turn reduces warm SST biases in the Benguela upwelling region. The strongly diminished wind and SST biases at high atmosphere model resolution allow for a more realistic latitudinal position of the intertropical convergence zone. Resulting stronger cross-equatorial winds, in conjunction with a shallower thermocline, enable a rapid cold tongue development in the eastern TA in boreal spring. This enables simulation of realistic interannual SST variability and its seasonal phase locking in the KCM, which primarily is the result of a stronger thermocline feedback. Our findings suggest that enhanced atmospheric resolution, both vertical and horizontal, could be a key to achieving more realistic simulation of TA climatology and interannual variability in climate models.

  11. Theory, modeling, and simulation annual report, 1992

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1993-05-01

    This report briefly discusses research on the following topics: development of electronic structure methods; modeling molecular processes in clusters; modeling molecular processes in solution; modeling molecular processes in separations chemistry; modeling interfacial molecular processes; modeling molecular processes in the atmosphere; methods for periodic calculations on solids; chemistry and physics of minerals; graphical user interfaces for computational chemistry codes; visualization and analysis of molecular simulations; integrated computational chemistry environment; and benchmark computations.

  12. Modeling and simulation with operator scaling

    OpenAIRE

    Cohen, Serge; Meerschaert, Mark M.; Rosiński, Jan

    2010-01-01

    Self-similar processes are useful in modeling diverse phenomena that exhibit scaling properties. Operator scaling allows a different scale factor in each coordinate. This paper develops practical methods for modeling and simulating stochastic processes with operator scaling. A simulation method for operator stable Levy processes is developed, based on a series representation, along with a Gaussian approximation of the small jumps. Several examples are given to illustrate practical application...

  13. Impact of deep convection in the tropical tropopause layer in West Africa: in-situ observations and mesoscale modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Fierli

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available We present the analysis of the impact of convection on the composition of the tropical tropopause layer region (TTL in West-Africa during the AMMA-SCOUT campaign. Geophysica M55 aircraft observations of water vapor, ozone, aerosol and CO2 during August 2006 show perturbed values at altitudes ranging from 14 km to 17 km (above the main convective outflow and satellite data indicates that air detrainment is likely to have originated from convective cloud east of the flights. Simulations of the BOLAM mesoscale model, nudged with infrared radiance temperatures, are used to estimate the convective impact in the upper troposphere and to assess the fraction of air processed by convection. The analysis shows that BOLAM correctly reproduces the location and the vertical structure of convective outflow. Model-aided analysis indicates that convection can influence the composition of the upper troposphere above the level of main outflow for an event of deep convection close to the observation site. Model analysis also shows that deep convection occurring in the entire Sahelian transect (up to 2000 km E of the measurement area has a non negligible role in determining TTL composition.

  14. Modeling of magnetic particle suspensions for simulations

    CERN Document Server

    Satoh, Akira

    2017-01-01

    The main objective of the book is to highlight the modeling of magnetic particles with different shapes and magnetic properties, to provide graduate students and young researchers information on the theoretical aspects and actual techniques for the treatment of magnetic particles in particle-based simulations. In simulation, we focus on the Monte Carlo, molecular dynamics, Brownian dynamics, lattice Boltzmann and stochastic rotation dynamics (multi-particle collision dynamics) methods. The latter two simulation methods can simulate both the particle motion and the ambient flow field simultaneously. In general, specialized knowledge can only be obtained in an effective manner under the supervision of an expert. The present book is written to play such a role for readers who wish to develop the skill of modeling magnetic particles and develop a computer simulation program using their own ability. This book is therefore a self-learning book for graduate students and young researchers. Armed with this knowledge,...

  15. Genesis of Twin Tropical Cyclones as Revealed by a Global Mesoscale Model: The Role of Mixed Rossby Gravity Waves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Bo-Wen; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Lin, Yuh-Lang; Laing, Arlene

    2012-01-01

    In this study, it is proposed that twin tropical cyclones (TCs), Kesiny and 01A, in May 2002 formed in association with the scale interactions of three gyres that appeared as a convectively coupled mixed Rossby gravity (ccMRG) wave during an active phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). This is shown by analyzing observational data, including NCEP reanalysis data and METEOSAT 7 IR satellite imagery, and performing numerical simulations using a global mesoscale model. A 10-day control run is initialized at 0000 UTC 1 May 2002 with grid-scale condensation but no sub-grid cumulus parameterizations. The ccMRG wave was identified as encompassing two developing and one non-developing gyres, the first two of which intensified and evolved into the twin TCs. The control run is able to reproduce the evolution of the ccMRG wave and thus the formation of the twin TCs about two and five days in advance as well as their subsequent intensity evolution and movement within an 8-10 day period. Five additional 10-day sensitivity experiments with different model configurations are conducted to help understand the interaction of the three gyres, leading to the formation of the TCs. These experiments suggest the improved lead time in the control run may be attributed to the realistic simulation of the ccMRG wave with the following processes: (1) wave deepening (intensification) associated with a reduction in wavelength and/or the intensification of individual gyres, (2) poleward movement of gyres that may be associated with boundary layer processes, (3) realistic simulation of moist processes at regional scales in association with each of the gyres, and (4) the vertical phasing of low- and mid-level cyclonic circulations associated with a specific gyre.

  16. Modelling and Simulation of Wave Loads

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Thoft-Christensen, Palle

    velocity can be approximated by a Gaussian Markov process. Known approximate results for the first-passage density or equivalently, the distribution of the extremes of wave loads are presented and compared with rather precise simulation results. It is demonstrated that the approximate results......A simple model of the wave load on slender members of offshore structures is described. The wave elevation of the sea state is modelled by a stationary Gaussian process. A new procedure to simulate realizations of the wave loads is developed. The simulation method assumes that the wave particle...

  17. Modelling and Simulation of Wave Loads

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Thoft-Christensen, Palle

    1985-01-01

    velocity can be approximated by a Gaussian Markov process. Known approximate results for the first passage density or equivalently, the distribution of the extremes of wave loads are presented and compared with rather precise simulation results. It is demonstrated that the approximate results......A simple model of the wave load on stender members of offshore structures is described . The wave elevation of the sea stateis modelled by a stationary Gaussian process. A new procedure to simulate realizations of the wave loads is developed. The simulation method assumes that the wave particle...

  18. Modeling and simulation of discrete event systems

    CERN Document Server

    Choi, Byoung Kyu

    2013-01-01

    Computer modeling and simulation (M&S) allows engineers to study and analyze complex systems. Discrete-event system (DES)-M&S is used in modern management, industrial engineering, computer science, and the military. As computer speeds and memory capacity increase, so DES-M&S tools become more powerful and more widely used in solving real-life problems. Based on over 20 years of evolution within a classroom environment, as well as on decades-long experience in developing simulation-based solutions for high-tech industries, Modeling and Simulation of Discrete-Event Systems is the only book on

  19. Minimum-complexity helicopter simulation math model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heffley, Robert K.; Mnich, Marc A.

    1988-01-01

    An example of a minimal complexity simulation helicopter math model is presented. Motivating factors are the computational delays, cost, and inflexibility of the very sophisticated math models now in common use. A helicopter model form is given which addresses each of these factors and provides better engineering understanding of the specific handling qualities features which are apparent to the simulator pilot. The technical approach begins with specification of features which are to be modeled, followed by a build up of individual vehicle components and definition of equations. Model matching and estimation procedures are given which enable the modeling of specific helicopters from basic data sources such as flight manuals. Checkout procedures are given which provide for total model validation. A number of possible model extensions and refinement are discussed. Math model computer programs are defined and listed.

  20. Computer Based Modelling and Simulation

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    GENERAL I ARTICLE. Computer Based ... universities, and later did system analysis, ... sonal computers (PC) and low cost software packages and tools. They can serve as useful learning experience through student projects. Models are .... Let us consider a numerical example: to calculate the velocity of a trainer aircraft ...

  1. Thermal unit availability modeling in a regional simulation model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yamayee, Z.A.; Port, J.; Robinett, W.

    1983-01-01

    The System Analysis Model (SAM) developed under the umbrella of PNUCC's System Analysis Committee is capable of simulating the operation of a given load/resource scenario. This model employs a Monte-Carlo simulation to incorporate uncertainties. Among uncertainties modeled is thermal unit availability both for energy simulation (seasonal) and capacity simulations (hourly). This paper presents the availability modeling in the capacity and energy models. The use of regional and national data in deriving the two availability models, the interaction between the two and modifications made to the capacity model in order to reflect regional practices is presented. A sample problem is presented to show the modification process. Results for modeling a nuclear unit using NERC-GADS is presented

  2. Plasma disruption modeling and simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hassanein, A.

    1994-01-01

    Disruptions in tokamak reactors are considered a limiting factor to successful operation and reliable design. The behavior of plasma-facing components during a disruption is critical to the overall integrity of the reactor. Erosion of plasma facing-material (PFM) surfaces due to thermal energy dump during the disruption can severely limit the lifetime of these components and thus diminish the economic feasibility of the reactor. A comprehensive understanding of the interplay of various physical processes during a disruption is essential for determining component lifetime and potentially improving the performance of such components. There are three principal stages in modeling the behavior of PFM during a disruption. Initially, the incident plasma particles will deposit their energy directly on the PFM surface, heating it to a very high temperature where ablation occurs. Models for plasma-material interactions have been developed and used to predict material thermal evolution during the disruption. Within a few microseconds after the start of the disruption, enough material is vaporized to intercept most of the incoming plasma particles. Models for plasma-vapor interactions are necessary to predict vapor cloud expansion and hydrodynamics. Continuous heating of the vapor cloud above the material surface by the incident plasma particles will excite, ionize, and cause vapor atoms to emit thermal radiation. Accurate models for radiation transport in the vapor are essential for calculating the net radiated flux to the material surface which determines the final erosion thickness and consequently component lifetime. A comprehensive model that takes into account various stages of plasma-material interaction has been developed and used to predict erosion rates during reactor disruption, as well during induced disruption in laboratory experiments

  3. Evaluation of rainfall structure on hydrograph simulation: Comparison of radar and interpolated methods, a study case in a tropical catchment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Velasquez, N.; Ochoa, A.; Castillo, S.; Hoyos Ortiz, C. D.

    2017-12-01

    The skill of river discharge simulation using hydrological models strongly depends on the quality and spatio-temporal representativeness of precipitation during storm events. All precipitation measurement strategies have their own strengths and weaknesses that translate into discharge simulation uncertainties. Distributed hydrological models are based on evolving rainfall fields in the same time scale as the hydrological simulation. In general, rainfall measurements from a dense and well maintained rain gauge network provide a very good estimation of the total volume for each rainfall event, however, the spatial structure relies on interpolation strategies introducing considerable uncertainty in the simulation process. On the other hand, rainfall retrievals from radar reflectivity achieve a better spatial structure representation but with higher uncertainty in the surface precipitation intensity and volume depending on the vertical rainfall characteristics and radar scan strategy. To assess the impact of both rainfall measurement methodologies on hydrological simulations, and in particular the effects of the rainfall spatio-temporal variability, a numerical modeling experiment is proposed including the use of a novel QPE (Quantitative Precipitation Estimation) method based on disdrometer data in order to estimate surface rainfall from radar reflectivity. The experiment is based on the simulation of 84 storms, the hydrological simulations are carried out using radar QPE and two different interpolation methods (IDW and TIN), and the assessment of simulated peak flow. Results show significant rainfall differences between radar QPE and the interpolated fields, evidencing a poor representation of storms in the interpolated fields, which tend to miss the precise location of the intense precipitation cores, and to artificially generate rainfall in some areas of the catchment. Regarding streamflow modelling, the potential improvement achieved by using radar QPE depends on

  4. Using a prescribed fire to test custom and standard fuel models for fire behaviour prediction in a non-native, grass-invaded tropical dry shrubland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrew D. Pierce; Sierra McDaniel; Mark Wasser; Alison Ainsworth; Creighton M. Litton; Christian P. Giardina; Susan Cordell; Ralf Ohlemuller

    2014-01-01

    Questions: Do fuel models developed for North American fuel types accurately represent fuel beds found in grass-invaded tropical shrublands? Do standard or custom fuel models for firebehavior models with in situ or RAWS measured fuel moistures affect the accuracy of predicted fire behavior in grass-invaded tropical shrublands? Location: Hawai’i Volcanoes National...

  5. Modelling and simulating fire tube boiler performance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, K.; Condra, T.; Houbak, Niels

    2003-01-01

    A model for a flue gas boiler covering the flue gas and the water-/steam side has been formulated. The model has been formulated as a number of sub models that are merged into an overall model for the complete boiler. Sub models have been defined for the furnace, the convection zone (split in 2......: a zone submerged in water and a zone covered by steam), a model for the material in the boiler (the steel) and 2 models for resp. the water/steam zone (the boiling) and the steam. The dynamic model has been developed as a number of Differential-Algebraic-Equation system (DAE). Subsequently Mat......Lab/Simulink has been applied for carrying out the simulations. To be able to verify the simulated results experiments has been carried out on a full scale boiler plant....

  6. Ocean barrier layers' effect on tropical cyclone intensification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balaguru, Karthik; Chang, Ping; Saravanan, R; Leung, L Ruby; Xu, Zhao; Li, Mingkui; Hsieh, Jen-Shan

    2012-09-04

    Improving a tropical cyclone's forecast and mitigating its destructive potential requires knowledge of various environmental factors that influence the cyclone's path and intensity. Herein, using a combination of observations and model simulations, we systematically demonstrate that tropical cyclone intensification is significantly affected by salinity-induced barrier layers, which are "quasi-permanent" features in the upper tropical oceans. When tropical cyclones pass over regions with barrier layers, the increased stratification and stability within the layer reduce storm-induced vertical mixing and sea surface temperature cooling. This causes an increase in enthalpy flux from the ocean to the atmosphere and, consequently, an intensification of tropical cyclones. On average, the tropical cyclone intensification rate is nearly 50% higher over regions with barrier layers, compared to regions without. Our finding, which underscores the importance of observing not only the upper-ocean thermal structure but also the salinity structure in deep tropical barrier layer regions, may be a key to more skillful predictions of tropical cyclone intensities through improved ocean state estimates and simulations of barrier layer processes. As the hydrological cycle responds to global warming, any associated changes in the barrier layer distribution must be considered in projecting future tropical cyclone activity.

  7. A virtual laboratory notebook for simulation models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winfield, A J

    1998-01-01

    In this paper we describe how we have adopted the laboratory notebook as a metaphor for interacting with computer simulation models. This 'virtual' notebook stores the simulation output and meta-data (which is used to record the scientist's interactions with the simulation). The meta-data stored consists of annotations (equivalent to marginal notes in a laboratory notebook), a history tree and a log of user interactions. The history tree structure records when in 'simulation' time, and from what starting point in the tree changes are made to the parameters by the user. Typically these changes define a new run of the simulation model (which is represented as a new branch of the history tree). The tree shows the structure of the changes made to the simulation and the log is required to keep the order in which the changes occurred. Together they form a record which you would normally find in a laboratory notebook. The history tree is plotted in simulation parameter space. This shows the scientist's interactions with the simulation visually and allows direct manipulation of the parameter information presented, which in turn is used to control directly the state of the simulation. The interactions with the system are graphical and usually involve directly selecting or dragging data markers and other graphical control devices around in parameter space. If the graphical manipulators do not provide precise enough control then textual manipulation is still available which allows numerical values to be entered by hand. The Virtual Laboratory Notebook, by providing interesting interactions with the visual view of the history tree, provides a mechanism for giving the user complex and novel ways of interacting with biological computer simulation models.

  8. Influence of daily versus monthly fire emissions on atmospheric model applications in the tropics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marlier, M. E.; Voulgarakis, A.; Faluvegi, G.; Shindell, D. T.; DeFries, R. S.

    2012-12-01

    Fires are widely used throughout the tropics to create and maintain areas for agriculture, but are also significant contributors to atmospheric trace gas and aerosol concentrations. However, the timing and magnitude of fire activity can vary strongly by year and ecosystem type. For example, frequent, low intensity fires dominate in African savannas whereas Southeast Asian peatland forests are susceptible to huge pulses of emissions during regional El Niño droughts. Despite the potential implications for modeling interactions with atmospheric chemistry and transport, fire emissions have commonly been input into global models at a monthly resolution. Recognizing the uncertainty that this can introduce, several datasets have parsed fire emissions to daily and sub-daily scales with satellite active fire detections. In this study, we explore differences between utilizing the monthly and daily Global Fire Emissions Database version 3 (GFED3) products as inputs into the NASA GISS-E2 composition climate model. We aim to understand how the choice of the temporal resolution of fire emissions affects uncertainty with respect to several common applications of global models: atmospheric chemistry, air quality, and climate. Focusing our analysis on tropical ozone, carbon monoxide, and aerosols, we compare modeled concentrations with available ground and satellite observations. We find that increasing the temporal frequency of fire emissions from monthly to daily can improve correlations with observations, predominately in areas or during seasons more heavily affected by fires. Differences between the two datasets are more evident with public health applications: daily resolution fire emissions increases the number of days exceeding World Health Organization air quality targets.

  9. Bridging experiments, models and simulations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Carusi, Annamaria; Burrage, Kevin; Rodríguez, Blanca

    2012-01-01

    Computational models in physiology often integrate functional and structural information from a large range of spatiotemporal scales from the ionic to the whole organ level. Their sophistication raises both expectations and skepticism concerning how computational methods can improve our...... understanding of living organisms and also how they can reduce, replace, and refine animal experiments. A fundamental requirement to fulfill these expectations and achieve the full potential of computational physiology is a clear understanding of what models represent and how they can be validated. The present...... that contributes to defining the specific aspects of cardiac electrophysiology the MSE system targets, rather than being only an external test, and that this is driven by advances in experimental and computational methods and the combination of both....

  10. MODELLING, SIMULATING AND OPTIMIZING BOILERS

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, K.; Condra, T.; Houbak, Niels

    2003-01-01

    , and the total stress level (i.e. stresses introduced due to internal pressure plus stresses introduced due to temperature gradients) must always be kept below the allowable stress level. In this way, the increased water-/steam space that should allow for better dynamic performance, in the end causes limited...... freedom with respect to dynamic operation of the plant. By means of an objective function including as well the price of the plant as a quantification of the value of dynamic operation of the plant an optimization is carried out. The dynamic model of the boiler plant is applied to define parts...

  11. Influence of Tropical South Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures on the Indian Summer monsoon in CMIP5 models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kucharski, Fred; Joshi, Manish K.

    2017-04-01

    In this study the teleconnection from the tropical south Atlantic to the Indian monsoon has been assessed in observations and in 32 models from the World Climate Research Program (WCRP) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). All models show that the regression pattern of tropics-wide Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies onto the tropical south Atlantic index correlates well with that in observations, even though with varying spatial standard deviations. However, only about half of the 32 models considered show the correct sign of rainfall response over India to a warm anomaly in the south tropical Atlantic, which is a reduction of rainfall. On the other hand, models generally do show large-scale responses broadly consistent with the observations, and the signal over India depends on relatively subtle changes in the response. This response to a tropical south Atlantic warm (cold) anomaly is a low-level quadrupole in streamfunction with an anticyclonic (cyclonic) anomaly over the Arabian Sea and India. This anticyclonic (cyclonic) anomaly leads to a weakening (strengthening) of the Somali jet and low-level divergence (convergence) over India, both inducing a reduction (increase) of Indian rainfall. The models which do not show the correct rainfall response over India also show a response similar to the one indicated above, but with maximum of the anticyclonic (cyclonic) response shifted to the western Pacific. The large-scale Walker circulation adjustment to the tropical south Atlantic SST anomalies is identified as one of the factors which account for the differences in the low-level streamfunction response. Models (and the observations) with the correct sign of the rainfall signal over India show the dominant upper-level convergence (divergence) as response to a warm (cold) tropical south Atlantic in the western Pacific region, whereas models with the wrong sign of the rainfall signal show it predominantly in the central-eastern Pacific

  12. Orographic effects on tropical climate in a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okajima, Hideki

    Large-scale mountain modifies the atmospheric circulation directly through dynamic and thermodynamic process, and also indirectly through the interaction with the ocean. To investigate orographic impacts on tropical climate, a fully coupled general circulation model (CGCM) is developed by coupling a state-of-the-art atmospheric general circulation model and an ocean general circulation model. With realistic boundary conditions, the CGCM produces a reasonable climatology of sea surface temperature (SST), surface winds, and precipitation. When global mountains are removed, the model climatology displays substantial changes in both the mean-state and the seasonal cycle. The equatorial eastern Pacific SST acquires a semi-annual component as inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) flips and flops across the equator following the seasonal migration of the sun. Without the Andes, wet air flows into the southeastern tropical Pacific from the humid Amazon, which weakens the meridional asymmetry during the Peruvian warm season (February-April). In addition, the northeasterly trade winds are enhanced north of the equator without the orographic blocking of Central American mountains and cools SST. Triggered by the SST cooling north and moistening south of the equator, the wind-evaporation-SST (WES) feedback further weakens the meridional asymmetry and prolongs the southern ITCZ. In the Atlantic Ocean, the equatorial cold tongue is substantially strengthened and develops a pronounced annual cycle in the absence of mountains. The easterly winds are overall enhanced over the equatorial Atlantic without orographic heating over the African highlands, developing a zonal asymmetry strengthened by the Bjerknes feedback. In the Indian Ocean, the thermocline shoals eastward and an equatorial cold tongue appears twice a year. During boreal summer, the Findlater jet is greatly weakened off Somalia and SST warms in the western Indian Ocean, forcing the equatorial easterly winds amplified

  13. Evaluating climate model performance in the tropics with retrievals of water isotopic composition from Aura TES

    Science.gov (United States)

    Field, Robert; Kim, Daehyun; Kelley, Max; LeGrande, Allegra; Worden, John; Schmidt, Gavin

    2014-05-01

    Observational and theoretical arguments suggest that satellite retrievals of the stable isotope composition of water vapor could be useful for climate model evaluation. The isotopic composition of water vapor is controlled by the same processes that control water vapor amount, but the observed distribution of isotopic composition is distinct from amount itself . This is due to the fractionation that occurs between the abundant H216O isotopes (isotopologues) and the rare and heavy H218O and HDO isotopes during evaporation and condensation. The fractionation physics are much simpler than the underlying moist physics; discrepancies between observed and modeled isotopic fields are more likely due to problems in the latter. Isotopic measurements therefore have the potential for identifying problems that might not be apparent from more conventional measurements. Isotopic tracers have existed in climate models since the 1980s but it is only since the mid 2000s that there have been enough data for meaningful model evaluation in this sense, in the troposphere at least. We have evaluated the NASA GISS ModelE2 general circulation model over the tropics against water isotope (HDO/H2O) retrievals from the Aura Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES), alongside more conventional measurements. A small ensemble of experiments was performed with physics perturbations to the cumulus and planetary boundary layer schemes, done in the context of the normal model development process. We examined the degree to which model-data agreement could be used to constrain a select group of internal processes in the model, namely condensate evaporation, entrainment strength, and moist convective air mass flux. All are difficult to parameterize, but exert strong influence over model performance. We found that the water isotope composition was significantly more sensitive to physics changes than precipitation, temperature or relative humidity through the depth of the tropical troposphere. Among the

  14. Advanced training simulator models. Implementation and validation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Borkowsky, Jeffrey; Judd, Jerry; Belblidia, Lotfi; O'farrell, David; Andersen, Peter

    2008-01-01

    Modern training simulators are required to replicate plant data for both thermal-hydraulic and neutronic response. Replication is required such that reactivity manipulation on the simulator properly trains the operator for reactivity manipulation at the plant. This paper discusses advanced models which perform this function in real-time using the coupled code system THOR/S3R. This code system models the all fluids systems in detail using an advanced, two-phase thermal-hydraulic a model. The nuclear core is modeled using an advanced, three-dimensional nodal method and also by using cycle-specific nuclear data. These models are configured to run interactively from a graphical instructor station or handware operation panels. The simulator models are theoretically rigorous and are expected to replicate the physics of the plant. However, to verify replication, the models must be independently assessed. Plant data is the preferred validation method, but plant data is often not available for many important training scenarios. In the absence of data, validation may be obtained by slower-than-real-time transient analysis. This analysis can be performed by coupling a safety analysis code and a core design code. Such a coupling exists between the codes RELAP5 and SIMULATE-3K (S3K). RELAP5/S3K is used to validate the real-time model for several postulated plant events. (author)

  15. Regularization modeling for large-eddy simulation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Geurts, Bernardus J.; Holm, D.D.

    2003-01-01

    A new modeling approach for large-eddy simulation (LES) is obtained by combining a "regularization principle" with an explicit filter and its inversion. This regularization approach allows a systematic derivation of the implied subgrid model, which resolves the closure problem. The central role of

  16. Analytical system dynamics modeling and simulation

    CERN Document Server

    Fabien, Brian C

    2008-01-01

    This book offering a modeling technique based on Lagrange's energy method includes 125 worked examples. Using this technique enables one to model and simulate systems as diverse as a six-link, closed-loop mechanism or a transistor power amplifier.

  17. Hybrid simulation models of production networks

    CERN Document Server

    Kouikoglou, Vassilis S

    2001-01-01

    This book is concerned with a most important area of industrial production, that of analysis and optimization of production lines and networks using discrete-event models and simulation. The book introduces a novel approach that combines analytic models and discrete-event simulation. Unlike conventional piece-by-piece simulation, this method observes a reduced number of events between which the evolution of the system is tracked analytically. Using this hybrid approach, several models are developed for the analysis of production lines and networks. The hybrid approach combines speed and accuracy for exceptional analysis of most practical situations. A number of optimization problems, involving buffer design, workforce planning, and production control, are solved through the use of hybrid models.

  18. Dynamic modeling and simulation of wind turbines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ghafari Seadat, M.H.; Kheradmand Keysami, M.; Lari, H.R.

    2002-01-01

    Using wind energy for generating electricity in wind turbines is a good way for using renewable energies. It can also help to protect the environment. The main objective of this paper is dynamic modeling by energy method and simulation of a wind turbine aided by computer. In this paper, the equations of motion are extracted for simulating the system of wind turbine and then the behavior of the system become obvious by solving the equations. The turbine is considered with three blade rotor in wind direction, induced generator that is connected to the network and constant revolution for simulation of wind turbine. Every part of the wind turbine should be simulated for simulation of wind turbine. The main parts are blades, gearbox, shafts and generator

  19. Regional model simulations of New Zealand climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Renwick, James A.; Katzfey, Jack J.; Nguyen, Kim C.; McGregor, John L.

    1998-03-01

    Simulation of New Zealand climate is examined through the use of a regional climate model nested within the output of the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation nine-level general circulation model (GCM). R21 resolution GCM output is used to drive a regional model run at 125 km grid spacing over the Australasian region. The 125 km run is used in turn to drive a simulation at 50 km resolution over New Zealand. Simulations with a full seasonal cycle are performed for 10 model years. The focus is on the quality of the simulation of present-day climate, but results of a doubled-CO2 run are discussed briefly. Spatial patterns of mean simulated precipitation and surface temperatures improve markedly as horizontal resolution is increased, through the better resolution of the country's orography. However, increased horizontal resolution leads to a positive bias in precipitation. At 50 km resolution, simulated frequency distributions of daily maximum/minimum temperatures are statistically similar to those of observations at many stations, while frequency distributions of daily precipitation appear to be statistically different to those of observations at most stations. Modeled daily precipitation variability at 125 km resolution is considerably less than observed, but is comparable to, or exceeds, observed variability at 50 km resolution. The sensitivity of the simulated climate to changes in the specification of the land surface is discussed briefly. Spatial patterns of the frequency of extreme temperatures and precipitation are generally well modeled. Under a doubling of CO2, the frequency of precipitation extremes changes only slightly at most locations, while air frosts become virtually unknown except at high-elevation sites.

  20. Air-Sea Momentum and Enthalpy Exchange in Coupled Atmosphere-Wave-Ocean Modeling of Tropical Cyclones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curcic, M.; Chen, S. S.

    2016-02-01

    The atmosphere and ocean are coupled through momentum, enthalpy, and mass fluxes. Accurate representation of these fluxes in a wide range of weather and climate conditions is one of major challenges in prediction models. Their current parameterizations are based on sparse observations in low-to-moderate winds and are not suited for high wind conditions such as tropical cyclones (TCs) and winter storms. In this study, we use the Unified Wave INterface - Coupled Model (UWIN-CM), a high resolution, fully-coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean model, to better understand the role of ocean surface waves in mediating air-sea momentum and enthalpy exchange in TCs. In particular, we focus on the explicit treatment of wave growth and dissipation for calculating atmospheric and oceanic stress, and its role in upper ocean mixing and surface cooling in the wake of the storm. Wind-wave misalignment and local wave disequilibrium result in difference between atmospheric and oceanic stress being largest on the left side of the storm. We find that explicit wave calculation in the coupled model reduces momentum transfer into the ocean by more than 10% on average, resulting in reduced cooling in TC's wake and subsequent weakening of the storm. We also investigate the impacts of sea surface temperature and upper ocean parameterization on air-sea enthalpy fluxes in the fully coupled model. High-resolution UWIN-CM simulations of TCs with various intensities and structure are conducted in this study to better understand the complex TC-ocean interaction and improve the representation of air-sea coupling processes in coupled prediction models.

  1. Landscape Modelling and Simulation Using Spatial Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amjed Naser Mohsin AL-Hameedawi

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available In this paper a procedure was performed for engendering spatial model of landscape acclimated to reality simulation. This procedure based on combining spatial data and field measurements with computer graphics reproduced using Blender software. Thereafter that we are possible to form a 3D simulation based on VIS ALL packages. The objective was to make a model utilising GIS, including inputs to the feature attribute data. The objective of these efforts concentrated on coordinating a tolerable spatial prototype, circumscribing facilitation scheme and outlining the intended framework. Thus; the eventual result was utilized in simulation form. The performed procedure contains not only data gathering, fieldwork and paradigm providing, but extended to supply a new method necessary to provide the respective 3D simulation mapping production, which authorises the decision makers as well as investors to achieve permanent acceptance an independent navigation system for Geoscience applications.

  2. Human Influence on Tropical Cyclone Intensity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sobel, Adam H.; Camargo, Suzana J.; Hall, Timothy M.; Lee, Chia-Ying; Tippett, Michael K.; Wing, Allison A.

    2016-01-01

    Recent assessments agree that tropical cyclone intensity should increase as the climate warms. Less agreement exists on the detection of recent historical trends in tropical cyclone intensity.We interpret future and recent historical trends by using the theory of potential intensity, which predicts the maximum intensity achievable by a tropical cyclone in a given local environment. Although greenhouse gas-driven warming increases potential intensity, climate model simulations suggest that aerosol cooling has largely canceled that effect over the historical record. Large natural variability complicates analysis of trends, as do poleward shifts in the latitude of maximum intensity. In the absence of strong reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, future greenhouse gas forcing of potential intensity will increasingly dominate over aerosol forcing, leading to substantially larger increases in tropical cyclone intensities.

  3. Responses of tropical legumes from the Brazilian Atlantic Rainforest to simulated acid rain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrade, Guilherme C; Silva, Luzimar C

    2017-07-01

    We investigated the morphological and anatomical effects of simulated acid rain on leaves of two species native to the Brazilian Atlantic Rainforest: Paubrasilia echinata and Libidibia ferrea var. leiostachya. Saplings were subjected to acid rain in a simulation chamber during 10 days for 15 min daily, using H 2 SO 4 solution pH 3.0 and, in the control, deionized water. At the end of the experiment, fragments from young and expanding leaves were anatomically analyzed. Although L. ferrea var. leiostachya leaves are more hydrophobic, rain droplets remained in contact with them for a longer time, as in the hydrophilic P. echinata leaves, droplets coalesce and rapidly run off. Visual symptomatology consisted in interveinal and marginal necrotic dots. Microscopic damage found included epicuticular wax flaking, turgor loss and epidermal cell shape alteration, hypertrophy of parenchymatous cells, and epidermal and mesophyll cell collapse. Formation of a wound tissue was observed in P. echinata, and it isolated the necrosis to the adaxial leaf surface. Acid rain increased thickness of all leaf tissues except spongy parenchyma in young leaves of L. ferrea var. leiostachya, and such thickness was maintained throughout leaf expansion. To our knowledge, this is the first report of acidity causing increase in leaf tissue thickness. This could represent the beginning of cell hypertrophy, which was seen in visually affected leaf regions. Paubrasilia echinata was more sensitive, showing earlier symptoms, but the anatomical damage in L. ferrea var. leiostachya was more severe, probably due to the higher time of contact with acid solution in this species.

  4. Quantitative interface models for simulating microstructure evolution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhu, J.Z.; Wang, T.; Zhou, S.H.; Liu, Z.K.; Chen, L.Q.

    2004-01-01

    To quantitatively simulate microstructural evolution in real systems, we investigated three different interface models: a sharp-interface model implemented by the software DICTRA and two diffuse-interface models which use either physical order parameters or artificial order parameters. A particular example is considered, the diffusion-controlled growth of a γ ' precipitate in a supersaturated γ matrix in Ni-Al binary alloys. All three models use the thermodynamic and kinetic parameters from the same databases. The temporal evolution profiles of composition from different models are shown to agree with each other. The focus is on examining the advantages and disadvantages of each model as applied to microstructure evolution in alloys

  5. A queuing model for road traffic simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guerrouahane, N.; Aissani, D.; Bouallouche-Medjkoune, L.; Farhi, N.

    2015-01-01

    We present in this article a stochastic queuing model for the raod traffic. The model is based on the M/G/c/c state dependent queuing model, and is inspired from the deterministic Godunov scheme for the road traffic simulation. We first propose a variant of M/G/c/c state dependent model that works with density-flow fundamental diagrams rather than density-speed relationships. We then extend this model in order to consider upstream traffic demand as well as downstream traffic supply. Finally, we show how to model a whole raod by concatenating raod sections as in the deterministic Godunov scheme

  6. Clock error models for simulation and estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meditch, J.S.

    1981-10-01

    Mathematical models for the simulation and estimation of errors in precision oscillators used as time references in satellite navigation systems are developed. The results, based on all currently known oscillator error sources, are directly implementable on a digital computer. The simulation formulation is sufficiently flexible to allow for the inclusion or exclusion of individual error sources as desired. The estimation algorithms, following from Kalman filter theory, provide directly for the error analysis of clock errors in both filtering and prediction

  7. Modeling and simulation goals and accomplishments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Turinsky, P.

    2013-01-01

    The CASL (Consortium for Advanced Simulation of Light Water Reactors) mission is to develop and apply the Virtual Reactor simulator (VERA) to optimise nuclear power in terms of capital and operating costs, of nuclear waste production and of nuclear safety. An efficient and reliable virtual reactor simulator relies on 3-dimensional calculations, accurate physics models and code coupling. Advances in computer hardware, along with comparable advances in numerical solvers make the VERA project achievable. This series of slides details the VERA project and presents the specificities and performance of the codes involved in the project and ends by listing the computing needs

  8. Linking hydraulic traits to tropical forest function in a size-structured and trait-driven model (TFS v.1-Hydro)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christoffersen, Bradley O.; Gloor, Manuel; Fauset, Sophie; Fyllas, Nikolaos M.; Galbraith, David R.; Baker, Timothy R.; Kruijt, Bart; Rowland, Lucy; Fisher, Rosie A.; Binks, Oliver J.; Sevanto, Sanna; Xu, Chonggang; Jansen, Steven; Choat, Brendan; Mencuccini, Maurizio; McDowell, Nate G.; Meir, Patrick

    2016-11-01

    Forest ecosystem models based on heuristic water stress functions poorly predict tropical forest response to drought partly because they do not capture the diversity of hydraulic traits (including variation in tree size) observed in tropical forests. We developed a continuous porous media approach to modeling plant hydraulics in which all parameters of the constitutive equations are biologically interpretable and measurable plant hydraulic traits (e.g., turgor loss point πtlp, bulk elastic modulus ɛ, hydraulic capacitance Cft, xylem hydraulic conductivity ks,max, water potential at 50 % loss of conductivity for both xylem (P50,x) and stomata (P50,gs), and the leaf : sapwood area ratio Al : As). We embedded this plant hydraulics model within a trait forest simulator (TFS) that models light environments of individual trees and their upper boundary conditions (transpiration), as well as providing a means for parameterizing variation in hydraulic traits among individuals. We synthesized literature and existing databases to parameterize all hydraulic traits as a function of stem and leaf traits, including wood density (WD), leaf mass per area (LMA), and photosynthetic capacity (Amax), and evaluated the coupled model (called TFS v.1-Hydro) predictions, against observed diurnal and seasonal variability in stem and leaf water potential as well as stand-scaled sap flux. Our hydraulic trait synthesis revealed coordination among leaf and xylem hydraulic traits and statistically significant relationships of most hydraulic traits with more easily measured plant traits. Using the most informative empirical trait-trait relationships derived from this synthesis, TFS v.1-Hydro successfully captured individual variation in leaf and stem water potential due to increasing tree size and light environment, with model representation of hydraulic architecture and plant traits exerting primary and secondary controls, respectively, on the fidelity of model predictions. The plant

  9. Linking hydraulic traits to tropical forest function in a size-structured and trait-driven model (TFS v.1-Hydro

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. O. Christoffersen

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Forest ecosystem models based on heuristic water stress functions poorly predict tropical forest response to drought partly because they do not capture the diversity of hydraulic traits (including variation in tree size observed in tropical forests. We developed a continuous porous media approach to modeling plant hydraulics in which all parameters of the constitutive equations are biologically interpretable and measurable plant hydraulic traits (e.g., turgor loss point πtlp, bulk elastic modulus ε, hydraulic capacitance Cft, xylem hydraulic conductivity ks,max, water potential at 50 % loss of conductivity for both xylem (P50,x and stomata (P50,gs, and the leaf : sapwood area ratio Al : As. We embedded this plant hydraulics model within a trait forest simulator (TFS that models light environments of individual trees and their upper boundary conditions (transpiration, as well as providing a means for parameterizing variation in hydraulic traits among individuals. We synthesized literature and existing databases to parameterize all hydraulic traits as a function of stem and leaf traits, including wood density (WD, leaf mass per area (LMA, and photosynthetic capacity (Amax, and evaluated the coupled model (called TFS v.1-Hydro predictions, against observed diurnal and seasonal variability in stem and leaf water potential as well as stand-scaled sap flux. Our hydraulic trait synthesis revealed coordination among leaf and xylem hydraulic traits and statistically significant relationships of most hydraulic traits with more easily measured plant traits. Using the most informative empirical trait–trait relationships derived from this synthesis, TFS v.1-Hydro successfully captured individual variation in leaf and stem water potential due to increasing tree size and light environment, with model representation of hydraulic architecture and plant traits exerting primary and secondary controls, respectively, on the fidelity of model

  10. Test of validity of a dynamic soil carbon model using data from leaf litter decomposition in a West African tropical forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guendehou, G. H. S.; Liski, J.; Tuomi, M.; Moudachirou, M.; Sinsin, B.; Mäkipää, R.

    2013-05-01

    We evaluated the applicability of the dynamic soil carbon model Yasso07 in tropical conditions in West Africa by simulating the litter decomposition process using as required input into the model litter mass, litter quality, temperature and precipitation collected during a litterbag experiment. The experiment was conducted over a six-month period on leaf litter of five dominant tree species, namely Afzelia africana, Anogeissus leiocarpa, Ceiba pentandra, Dialium guineense and Diospyros mespiliformis in a semi-deciduous vertisol forest in Southern Benin. Since the predictions of Yasso07 were not consistent with the observations on mass loss and chemical composition of litter, Yasso07 was fitted to the dataset composed of global data and the new experimental data from Benin. The re-parameterized versions of Yasso07 had a good predictive ability and refined the applicability of the model in Benin to estimate soil carbon stocks, its changes and CO2 emissions from heterotrophic respiration as main outputs of the model. The findings of this research support the hypothesis that the high variation of litter quality observed in the tropics is a major driver of the decomposition and needs to be accounted in the model parameterization.

  11. Modelling the impacts of reoccurring fires in tropical savannahs using Biome-BGC.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fletcher, Charlotte; Petritsch, Richard; Pietsch, Stephan

    2010-05-01

    Fires are a dominant feature of tropical savannahs and have occurred throughout history by natural as well as human-induced means. These fires have a profound influence on the landscape in terms of flux dynamics and vegetative species composition. This study attempts to understand the impacts of fire regimes on flux dynamics and vegetation composition in savannahs using the Biome-BGC model. The Batéké Plateau, Gabon - an area of savannah grasslands in the Congo basin, serves as a case-study. To achieve model validation for savannahs, data sets from stands with differing levels of past burning are used. It is hypothesised that the field measurements from those stands with lower-levels of past burning will correlate with the Biome-BGC model output, meaning that the model is validated for the savannah excluding fire regimes. However, in reality, fire is frequent in the savannah. Data on past fire events are available from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to provide the fire regimes of the model. As the field data-driven measurements of the burnt stands are influenced by fire in the savannah, this will therefore result in a Biome-BGC model validated for the impacts of fire on savannah ecology. The validated model can then be used to predict the savannah's flux dynamics under the fire scenarios expected with climate and/or human impact change.

  12. Simulation Modeling of Software Development Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calavaro, G. F.; Basili, V. R.; Iazeolla, G.

    1996-01-01

    A simulation modeling approach is proposed for the prediction of software process productivity indices, such as cost and time-to-market, and the sensitivity analysis of such indices to changes in the organization parameters and user requirements. The approach uses a timed Petri Net and Object Oriented top-down model specification. Results demonstrate the model representativeness, and its usefulness in verifying process conformance to expectations, and in performing continuous process improvement and optimization.

  13. The Next-Generation Goddard Convective-Stratiform Heating Algorithm: New Retrievals for Tropical and Extra-tropical Environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lang, S. E.; Tao, W. K.; Iguchi, T.

    2017-12-01

    The Goddard Convective-Stratiform Heating (or CSH) algorithm has been used to estimate cloud heating over the global Tropics using TRMM rainfall data and a set of look-up-tables (LUTs) derived from a series of multi-week cloud-resolving model (CRM) simulations using the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble model (GCE). These simulations link satellite observables (i.e., surface rainfall and stratiform fraction) with cloud heating profiles, which are not directly observable. However, with the launch of GPM in 2014, the range over which such algorithms can be applied has been extended from the Tropics into higher latitudes, including cold season and synoptic weather systems. In response, the CSH algorithm and its LUTs have been revised both to improve the retrievals in the Tropics as well as expand retrievals to higher latitudes. For the Tropics, the GCE simulations used to build the LUTs were upgraded using larger 2D model domains (512 vs 256 km) and a new, improved Goddard 4-ice scheme as well as expanded with additional cases (4 land and 6 ocean in total). The new tropical LUTs are also re-built using additional metrics. Besides surface type, conditional rain intensity and stratiform fraction, the new LUTs incorporate echo top heights and low-level (0-2 km) vertical reflectivity gradients. CSH retrievals in the Tropics based on the new LUTs show significant differences from previous iterations using TRMM data or the old LUT metrics. For the Extra-tropics, 6 NU-WRF simulations of synoptic events (3 East Coast and 3 West Coast), including snow, were used to build new extra-tropical CSH LUTs. The LUT metrics for the extra-tropics are based on radar characteristics and freezing level height. The extra-tropical retrievals are evaluated with a self-consistency check approach using the model heating as `truth,' and freezing level height is used to transition CSH retrievals from the Tropics to Extra-tropics. Retrieved zonal average heating structures in the Extra-tropics are

  14. Validation of the simulator neutronics model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gregory, M.V.

    1984-01-01

    The neutronics model in the SRP reactor training simulator computes the variation with time of the neutron population in the reactor core. The power output of a reactor is directly proportional to the neutron population, thus in a very real sense the neutronics model determines the response of the simulator. The geometrical complexity of the reactor control system in SRP reactors requires the neutronics model to provide a detailed, 3D representation of the reactor core. Existing simulator technology does not allow such a detailed representation to run in real-time in a minicomputer environment, thus an entirely different approach to the problem was required. A prompt jump method has been developed in answer to this need

  15. Analyzing Strategic Business Rules through Simulation Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orta, Elena; Ruiz, Mercedes; Toro, Miguel

    Service Oriented Architecture (SOA) holds promise for business agility since it allows business process to change to meet new customer demands or market needs without causing a cascade effect of changes in the underlying IT systems. Business rules are the instrument chosen to help business and IT to collaborate. In this paper, we propose the utilization of simulation models to model and simulate strategic business rules that are then disaggregated at different levels of an SOA architecture. Our proposal is aimed to help find a good configuration for strategic business objectives and IT parameters. The paper includes a case study where a simulation model is built to help business decision-making in a context where finding a good configuration for different business parameters and performance is too complex to analyze by trial and error.

  16. Mapping tropical biodiversity using spectroscopic imagery : characterization of structural and chemical diversity with 3-D radiative transfer modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feret, J. B.; Gastellu-Etchegorry, J. P.; Lefèvre-Fonollosa, M. J.; Proisy, C.; Asner, G. P.

    2014-12-01

    The accelerating loss of biodiversity is a major environmental trend. Tropical ecosystems are particularly threatened due to climate change, invasive species, farming and natural resources exploitation. Recent advances in remote sensing of biodiversity confirmed the potential of high spatial resolution spectroscopic imagery for species identification and biodiversity mapping. Such information bridges the scale-gap between small-scale, highly detailed field studies and large-scale, low-resolution satellite observations. In order to produce fine-scale resolution maps of canopy alpha-diversity and beta-diversity of the Peruvian Amazonian forest, we designed, applied and validated a method based on spectral variation hypothesis to CAO AToMS (Carnegie Airborne Observatory Airborne Taxonomic Mapping System) images, acquired from 2011 to 2013. There is a need to understand on a quantitative basis the physical processes leading to this spectral variability. This spectral variability mainly depends on canopy chemistry, structure, and sensor's characteristics. 3D radiative transfer modeling provides a powerful framework for the study of the relative influence of each of these factors in dense and complex canopies. We simulated series of spectroscopic images with the 3D radiative model DART, with variability gradients in terms of leaf chemistry, individual tree structure, spatial and spectral resolution, and applied methods for biodiversity mapping. This sensitivity study allowed us to determine the relative influence of these factors on the radiometric signal acquired by different types of sensors. Such study is particularly important to define the domain of validity of our approach, to refine requirements for the instrumental specifications, and to help preparing hyperspectral spatial missions to be launched at the horizon 2015-2025 (EnMAP, PRISMA, HISUI, SHALOM, HYSPIRI, HYPXIM). Simulations in preparation include topographic variations in order to estimate the robustness

  17. Modelling rainfall interception by a lowland tropical rain forest in northeastern Puerto Rico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schellekens, J.; Scatena, F. N.; Bruijnzeel, L. A.; Wickel, A. J.

    1999-12-01

    Recent surveys of tropical forest water use suggest that rainfall interception by the canopy is largest in wet maritime locations. To investigate the underlying processes at one such location—the Luquillo Experimental Forest in eastern Puerto Rico—66 days of detailed throughfall and above-canopy climatic data were collected in 1996 and analysed using the Rutter and Gash models of rainfall interception. Throughfall occurred on 80% of the days distributed over 80 rainfall events. Measured interception loss was 50% of gross precipitation. When Penman-Monteith based estimates for the wet canopy evaporation rate (0.11 mm h -1 on average) and a canopy storage of 1.15 mm were used, both models severely underestimated measured interception loss. A detailed analysis of four storms using the Rutter model showed that optimizing the model for the wet canopy evaporation component yielded much better results than increasing the canopy storage capacity. However, the Rutter model failed to properly estimate throughfall amounts during an exceptionally large event. The analytical model, on the other hand, was capable of representing interception during the extreme event, but once again optimizing wet canopy evaporation rates produced a much better fit than optimizing the canopy storage capacity. As such, the present results support the idea that it is primarily a high rate of evaporation from a wet canopy that is responsible for the observed high interception losses.

  18. New exploration on TMSR: modelling and simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Si, S.; Chen, Q.; Bei, H.; Zhao, J., E-mail: ssy@snerdi.com.cn [Shanghai Nuclear Engineering Research & Design Inst., Shanghai (China)

    2015-07-01

    A tightly coupled multi-physics model for MSR (Molten Salt Reactor) system involving the reactor core and the rest of the primary loop has been developed and employed in an in-house developed computer code TANG-MSR. In this paper, the computer code is used to simulate the behavior of steady state operation and transient for our redesigned TMSR. The presented simulation results demonstrate that the models employed in TANG-MSR can capture major physics phenomena in MSR and the redesigned TMSR has excellent performance of safety and sustainability. (author)

  19. Nuclear reactor core modelling in multifunctional simulators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Puska, E.K.

    1999-01-01

    The thesis concentrates on the development of nuclear reactor core models for the APROS multifunctional simulation environment and the use of the core models in various kinds of applications. The work was started in 1986 as a part of the development of the entire APROS simulation system. The aim was to create core models that would serve in a reliable manner in an interactive, modular and multifunctional simulator/plant analyser environment. One-dimensional and three-dimensional core neutronics models have been developed. Both models have two energy groups and six delayed neutron groups. The three-dimensional finite difference type core model is able to describe both BWR- and PWR-type cores with quadratic fuel assemblies and VVER-type cores with hexagonal fuel assemblies. The one- and three-dimensional core neutronics models can be connected with the homogeneous, the five-equation or the six-equation thermal hydraulic models of APROS. The key feature of APROS is that the same physical models can be used in various applications. The nuclear reactor core models of APROS have been built in such a manner that the same models can be used in simulator and plant analyser applications, as well as in safety analysis. In the APROS environment the user can select the number of flow channels in the three-dimensional reactor core and either the homogeneous, the five- or the six-equation thermal hydraulic model for these channels. The thermal hydraulic model and the number of flow channels have a decisive effect on the calculation time of the three-dimensional core model and thus, at present, these particular selections make the major difference between a safety analysis core model and a training simulator core model. The emphasis on this thesis is on the three-dimensional core model and its capability to analyse symmetric and asymmetric events in the core. The factors affecting the calculation times of various three-dimensional BWR, PWR and WWER-type APROS core models have been

  20. Nuclear reactor core modelling in multifunctional simulators

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Puska, E.K. [VTT Energy, Nuclear Energy, Espoo (Finland)

    1999-06-01

    The thesis concentrates on the development of nuclear reactor core models for the APROS multifunctional simulation environment and the use of the core models in various kinds of applications. The work was started in 1986 as a part of the development of the entire APROS simulation system. The aim was to create core models that would serve in a reliable manner in an interactive, modular and multifunctional simulator/plant analyser environment. One-dimensional and three-dimensional core neutronics models have been developed. Both models have two energy groups and six delayed neutron groups. The three-dimensional finite difference type core model is able to describe both BWR- and PWR-type cores with quadratic fuel assemblies and VVER-type cores with hexagonal fuel assemblies. The one- and three-dimensional core neutronics models can be connected with the homogeneous, the five-equation or the six-equation thermal hydraulic models of APROS. The key feature of APROS is that the same physical models can be used in various applications. The nuclear reactor core models of APROS have been built in such a manner that the same models can be used in simulator and plant analyser applications, as well as in safety analysis. In the APROS environment the user can select the number of flow channels in the three-dimensional reactor core and either the homogeneous, the five- or the six-equation thermal hydraulic model for these channels. The thermal hydraulic model and the number of flow channels have a decisive effect on the calculation time of the three-dimensional core model and thus, at present, these particular selections make the major difference between a safety analysis core model and a training simulator core model. The emphasis on this thesis is on the three-dimensional core model and its capability to analyse symmetric and asymmetric events in the core. The factors affecting the calculation times of various three-dimensional BWR, PWR and WWER-type APROS core models have been

  1. Development of a modular streamflow model to quantify runoff contributions from different land uses in tropical urban environments using Genetic Programming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meshgi, Ali; Schmitter, Petra; Chui, Ting Fong May; Babovic, Vladan

    2015-06-01

    The decrease of pervious areas during urbanization has severely altered the hydrological cycle, diminishing infiltration and therefore sub-surface flows during rainfall events, and further increasing peak discharges in urban drainage infrastructure. Designing appropriate waster sensitive infrastructure that reduces peak discharges requires a better understanding of land use specific contributions towards surface and sub-surface processes. However, to date, such understanding in tropical urban environments is still limited. On the other hand, the rainfall-runoff process in tropical urban systems experiences a high degree of non-linearity and heterogeneity. Therefore, this study used Genetic Programming to establish a physically interpretable modular model consisting of two sub-models: (i) a baseflow module and (ii) a quick flow module to simulate the two hydrograph flow components. The relationship between the input variables in the model (i.e. meteorological data and catchment initial conditions) and its overall structure can be explained in terms of catchment hydrological processes. Therefore, the model is a partial greying of what is often a black-box approach in catchment modelling. The model was further generalized to the sub-catchments of the main catchment, extending the potential for more widespread applications. Subsequently, this study used the modular model to predict both flow components of events as well as time series, and applied optimization techniques to estimate the contributions of various land uses (i.e. impervious, steep grassland, grassland on mild slope, mixed grasses and trees and relatively natural vegetation) towards baseflow and quickflow in tropical urban systems. The sub-catchment containing the highest portion of impervious surfaces (40% of the area) contributed the least towards the baseflow (6.3%) while the sub-catchment covered with 87% of relatively natural vegetation contributed the most (34.9%). The results from the quickflow

  2. Irrigation water consumption modelling of a soilless cucumber crop under specific greenhouse conditions in a humid tropical climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Galo Alberto Salcedo

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT: The irrigation water consumption of a soilless cucumber crop under greenhouse conditions in a humid tropical climate has been evaluated in this paper in order to improve the irrigation water and fertilizers management in these specific conditions. For this purpose, a field experiment was conducted. Two trials were carried out during the years 2011 and 2014 in an experimental farm located in Vinces (Ecuador. In each trial, the complete growing cycle of a cucumber crop grown under a greenhouse was evaluated. Crop development was monitored and a good fit to a sigmoidal Gompertz type growth function was reported. The daily water uptake of the crop was measured and related to the most relevant indoor climate variables. Two different combination methods, namely the Penman-Monteith equation and the Baille equation, were applied. However, the results obtained with these combination methods were not satisfactory due to the poor correlation between the climatic variables, especially the incoming radiation, and the crop's water uptake (WU. On contrary, a good correlation was reported between the crop's water uptake and the leaf area index (LAI, especially in the initial crop stages. However, when the crop is fully developed, the WU stabilizes and becomes independent from the LAI. A preliminary model to simulate the water uptake of the crop was adjusted using the data obtained in the first experiment and then validated with the data of the second experiment.

  3. Kanban simulation model for production process optimization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Golchev Riste

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available A long time has passed since the KANBAN system has been established as an efficient method for coping with the excessive inventory. Still, the possibilities for its improvement through its integration with other different approaches should be investigated further. The basic research challenge of this paper is to present benefits of KANBAN implementation supported with Discrete Event Simulation (DES. In that direction, at the beginning, the basics of KANBAN system are presented with emphasis on the information and material flow, together with a methodology for implementation of KANBAN system. Certain analysis on combining the simulation with this methodology is presented. The paper is concluded with a practical example which shows that through understanding the philosophy of the implementation methodology of KANBAN system and the simulation methodology, a simulation model can be created which can serve as a basis for a variety of experiments that can be conducted within a short period of time, resulting with production process optimization.

  4. Vermont Yankee simulator BOP model upgrade

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alejandro, R.; Udbinac, M.J.

    2006-01-01

    The Vermont Yankee simulator has undergone significant changes in the 20 years since the original order was placed. After the move from the original Unix to MS Windows environment, and upgrade to the latest version of SimPort, now called MASTER, the platform was set for an overhaul and replacement of major plant system models. Over a period of a few months, the VY simulator team, in partnership with WSC engineers, replaced outdated legacy models of the main steam, condenser, condensate, circulating water, feedwater and feedwater heaters, and main turbine and auxiliaries. The timing was ideal, as the plant was undergoing a power up-rate, so the opportunity was taken to replace the legacy models with industry-leading, true on-line object oriented graphical models. Due to the efficiency of design and ease of use of the MASTER tools, VY staff performed the majority of the modeling work themselves with great success, with only occasional assistance from WSC, in a relatively short time-period, despite having to maintain all of their 'regular' simulator maintenance responsibilities. This paper will provide a more detailed view of the VY simulator, including how it is used and how it has benefited from the enhancements and upgrades implemented during the project. (author)

  5. Evaluating mechanisms of diversification in a Guineo-Congolian tropical forest frog using demographic model selection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Portik, Daniel M; Leaché, Adam D; Rivera, Danielle; Barej, Michael F; Burger, Marius; Hirschfeld, Mareike; Rödel, Mark-Oliver; Blackburn, David C; Fujita, Matthew K

    2017-10-01

    The accumulation of biodiversity in tropical forests can occur through multiple allopatric and parapatric models of diversification, including forest refugia, riverine barriers and ecological gradients. Considerable debate surrounds the major diversification process, particularly in the West African Lower Guinea forests, which contain a complex geographic arrangement of topographic features and historical refugia. We used genomic data to investigate alternative mechanisms of diversification in the Gaboon forest frog, Scotobleps gabonicus, by first identifying population structure and then performing demographic model selection and spatially explicit analyses. We found that a majority of population divergences are best explained by allopatric models consistent with the forest refugia hypothesis and involve divergence in isolation with subsequent expansion and gene flow. These population divergences occurred simultaneously and conform to predictions based on climatically stable regions inferred through ecological niche modelling. Although forest refugia played a prominent role in the intraspecific diversification of S. gabonicus, we also find evidence for potential interactions between landscape features and historical refugia, including major rivers and elevational barriers such as the Cameroonian Volcanic Line. We outline the advantages of using genomewide variation in a model-testing framework to distinguish between alternative allopatric hypotheses, and the pitfalls of limited geographic and molecular sampling. Although phylogeographic patterns are often species-specific and related to life-history traits, additional comparative studies incorporating genomic data are necessary for separating shared historical processes from idiosyncratic responses to environmental, climatic and geological influences on diversification. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  6. Large differences in the diabatic heat budget of the tropical UTLS in reanalyses

    OpenAIRE

    J. S. Wright; S. Fueglistaler

    2013-01-01

    We present the time mean heat budgets of the tropical upper troposphere (UT) and lower stratosphere (LS) as simulated by five reanalysis models: MERRA, ERA-Interim, CFSR, JRA-25/JCDAS, and NCEP/NCAR. The simulated diabatic heat budget in the tropical UTLS differs significantly from model to model, with substantial implications for representations of transport and mixing. Large differences are apparent both in the net heat budget and in all comparable individual components, including la...

  7. Simulation of nitrous oxide and nitric oxide emissions from tropical primary forests in the Costa Rican Atlantic Zone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shuguanga Liu; William A. Reiners; Michael Keller; Davis S. Schimel

    2000-01-01

    Nitrous oxide (N2O) and nitric oxide (NO) are important atmospheric trace gases participating in the regulation of global climate and environment. Predictive models on the emissions of N2O and NO emissions from soil into the atmosphere are required. We modified the CENTURY model (Soil Sci. Soc. Am. J., 51 (1987) 1173) to simulate the emissions of N2O and NO from...

  8. Modelling mean transit time of stream base flow during tropical cyclone rainstorm in a steep relief forested catchment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Jun-Yi; Huang, -Chuan, Jr.

    2017-04-01

    Mean transit time (MTT) is one of the of fundamental catchment descriptors to advance understanding on hydrological, ecological, and biogeochemical processes and improve water resources management. However, there were few documented the base flow partitioning (BFP) and mean transit time within a mountainous catchment in typhoon alley. We used a unique data set of 18O isotope and conductivity composition of rainfall (136 mm to 778 mm) and streamflow water samples collected for 14 tropical cyclone events (during 2011 to 2015) in a steep relief forested catchment (Pinglin, in northern Taiwan). A lumped hydrological model, HBV, considering dispersion model transit time distribution was used to estimate total flow, base flow, and MTT of stream base flow. Linear regression between MTT and hydrometric (precipitation intensity and antecedent precipitation index) variables were used to explore controls on MTT variation. Results revealed that both the simulation performance of total flow and base flow were satisfactory, and the Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient of total flow and base flow was 0.848 and 0.732, respectively. The event magnitude increased with the decrease of estimated MTTs. Meanwhile, the estimated MTTs varied 4-21 days with the increase of BFP between 63-92%. The negative correlation between event magnitude and MTT and BFP showed the forcing controls the MTT and BFP. Besides, a negative relationship between MTT and the antecedent precipitation index was also found. In other words, wetter antecedent moisture content more rapidly active the fast flow paths. This approach is well suited for constraining process-based modeling in a range of high precipitation intensity and steep relief forested environments.

  9. A Critique on Long-term Impacts of Logging in a Tropical Rain Forest-a Simulation Study

    OpenAIRE

    Rahmawaty

    2006-01-01

    06008760 Logging operations in tropical forests often have severe impacts on the forests. Though only a small portion of trees is harvested, a large portion of the forest may be impacted, oleh Rahmawaty

  10. Simulation modeling and analysis in safety. II

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ayoub, M.A.

    1981-01-01

    The paper introduces and illustrates simulation modeling as a viable approach for dealing with complex issues and decisions in safety and health. The author details two studies: evaluation of employee exposure to airborne radioactive materials and effectiveness of the safety organization. The first study seeks to define a policy to manage a facility used in testing employees for radiation contamination. An acceptable policy is one that would permit the testing of all employees as defined under regulatory requirements, while not exceeding available resources. The second study evaluates the relationship between safety performance and the characteristics of the organization, its management, its policy, and communication patterns among various functions and levels. Both studies use models where decisions are reached based on the prevailing conditions and occurrence of key events within the simulation environment. Finally, several problem areas suitable for simulation studies are highlighted. (Auth.)

  11. Modeling salmonella Dublin into the dairy herd simulation model Simherd

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kudahl, Anne Braad

    2010-01-01

    Infection with Salmonella Dublin in the dairy herd and effects of the infection and relevant control measures are currently being modeled into the dairy herd simulation model called Simherd. The aim is to compare the effects of different control strategies against Salmonella Dublin on both within...... of the simulations will therefore be used for decision support in the national surveillance and eradication program against Salmonella Dublin. Basic structures of the model are programmed and will be presented at the workshop. The model is in a phase of face-validation by a group of Salmonella......-herd- prevalence and economy by simulations. The project Dublin on both within-herd- prevalence and economy by simulations. The project is a part of a larger national project "Salmonella 2007 - 2011" with the main objective to reduce the prevalence of Salmonella Dublin in Danish Dairy herds. Results...

  12. A universal simulator for ecological models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holst, Niels

    2013-01-01

    Software design is an often neglected issue in ecological models, even though bad software design often becomes a hindrance for re-using, sharing and even grasping an ecological model. In this paper, the methodology of agile software design was applied to the domain of ecological models. Thus...... the principles for a universal design of ecological models were arrived at. To exemplify this design, the open-source software Universal Simulator was constructed using C++ and XML and is provided as a resource for inspiration....

  13. Biological transportation networks: Modeling and simulation

    KAUST Repository

    Albi, Giacomo

    2015-09-15

    We present a model for biological network formation originally introduced by Cai and Hu [Adaptation and optimization of biological transport networks, Phys. Rev. Lett. 111 (2013) 138701]. The modeling of fluid transportation (e.g., leaf venation and angiogenesis) and ion transportation networks (e.g., neural networks) is explained in detail and basic analytical features like the gradient flow structure of the fluid transportation network model and the impact of the model parameters on the geometry and topology of network formation are analyzed. We also present a numerical finite-element based discretization scheme and discuss sample cases of network formation simulations.

  14. Reproducibility in Computational Neuroscience Models and Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDougal, Robert A.; Bulanova, Anna S.; Lytton, William W.

    2016-01-01

    Objective Like all scientific research, computational neuroscience research must be reproducible. Big data science, including simulation research, cannot depend exclusively on journal articles as the method to provide the sharing and transparency required for reproducibility. Methods Ensuring model reproducibility requires the use of multiple standard software practices and tools, including version control, strong commenting and documentation, and code modularity. Results Building on these standard practices, model sharing sites and tools have been developed that fit into several categories: 1. standardized neural simulators, 2. shared computational resources, 3. declarative model descriptors, ontologies and standardized annotations; 4. model sharing repositories and sharing standards. Conclusion A number of complementary innovations have been proposed to enhance sharing, transparency and reproducibility. The individual user can be encouraged to make use of version control, commenting, documentation and modularity in development of models. The community can help by requiring model sharing as a condition of publication and funding. Significance Model management will become increasingly important as multiscale models become larger, more detailed and correspondingly more difficult to manage by any single investigator or single laboratory. Additional big data management complexity will come as the models become more useful in interpreting experiments, thus increasing the need to ensure clear alignment between modeling data, both parameters and results, and experiment. PMID:27046845

  15. A SIMULATION MODEL OF THE GAS COMPLEX

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sokolova G. E.

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The article considers the dynamics of gas production in Russia, the structure of sales in the different market segments, as well as comparative dynamics of selling prices on these segments. Problems of approach to the creation of the gas complex using a simulation model, allowing to estimate efficiency of the project and determine the stability region of the obtained solutions. In the presented model takes into account the unit repayment of the loan, allowing with the first year of simulation to determine the possibility of repayment of the loan. The model object is a group of gas fields, which is determined by the minimum flow rate above which the project is cost-effective. In determining the minimum source flow rate for the norm of discount is taken as a generalized weighted average percentage on debt and equity taking into account risk premiums. He also serves as the lower barrier to internal rate of return below which the project is rejected as ineffective. Analysis of the dynamics and methods of expert evaluation allow to determine the intervals of variation of the simulated parameters, such as the price of gas and the exit gas complex at projected capacity. Calculated using the Monte Carlo method, for each random realization of the model simulated values of parameters allow to obtain a set of optimal for each realization of values minimum yield of wells, and also allows to determine the stability region of the solution.

  16. Object Oriented Modelling and Dynamical Simulation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wagner, Falko Jens; Poulsen, Mikael Zebbelin

    1998-01-01

    This report with appendix describes the work done in master project at DTU.The goal of the project was to develop a concept for simulation of dynamical systems based on object oriented methods.The result was a library of C++-classes, for use when both building componentbased models and when...

  17. Advanced feeder control using fast simulation models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verheijen, O.S.; Op den Camp, O.M.G.C.; Beerkens, R.G.C.; Backx, A.C.P.M.; Huisman, L.; Drummond, C.H.

    2005-01-01

    For the automatic control of glass quality in glass production, the relation between process variable and product or glass quality and process conditions/process input parameters must be known in detail. So far, detailed 3-D glass melting simulation models were used to predict the effect of process

  18. Modeling and Simulating Virtual Anatomical Humans

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Madehkhaksar, Forough; Luo, Zhiping; Pronost, Nicolas; Egges, Arjan

    2014-01-01

    This chapter presents human musculoskeletal modeling and simulation as a challenging field that lies between biomechanics and computer animation. One of the main goals of computer animation research is to develop algorithms and systems that produce plausible motion. On the other hand, the main

  19. Agent Based Modelling for Social Simulation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Smit, S.K.; Ubink, E.M.; Vecht, B. van der; Langley, D.J.

    2013-01-01

    This document is the result of an exploratory project looking into the status of, and opportunities for Agent Based Modelling (ABM) at TNO. The project focussed on ABM applications containing social interactions and human factors, which we termed ABM for social simulation (ABM4SS). During the course

  20. Thermohydraulic modeling and simulation of breeder reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Agrawal, A.K.; Khatib-Rahbar, M.; Curtis, R.T.; Hetrick, D.L.; Girijashankar, P.V.

    1982-01-01

    This paper deals with the modeling and simulation of system-wide transients in LMFBRs. Unprotected events (i.e., the presumption of failure of the plant protection system) leading to core-melt are not considered in this paper. The existing computational capabilities in the area of protected transients in the US are noted. Various physical and numerical approximations that are made in these codes are discussed. Finally, the future direction in the area of model verification and improvements is discussed

  1. A Python Implementation of an Intermediate-Level Tropical Circulation Model and Implications for How Modeling Science is Done

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, J. W. B.

    2015-12-01

    Historically, climate models have been developed incrementally and in compiled languages like Fortran. While the use of legacy compiledlanguages results in fast, time-tested code, the resulting model is limited in its modularity and cannot take advantage of functionalityavailable with modern computer languages. Here we describe an effort at using the open-source, object-oriented language Pythonto create more flexible climate models: the package qtcm, a Python implementation of the intermediate-level Neelin-Zeng Quasi-Equilibrium Tropical Circulation model (QTCM1) of the atmosphere. The qtcm package retains the core numerics of QTCM1, written in Fortran, to optimize model performance but uses Python structures and utilities to wrap the QTCM1 Fortran routines and manage model execution. The resulting "mixed language" modeling package allows order and choice of subroutine execution to be altered at run time, and model analysis and visualization to be integrated in interactively with model execution at run time. This flexibility facilitates more complex scientific analysis using less complex code than would be possible using traditional languages alone and provides tools to transform the traditional "formulate hypothesis → write and test code → run model → analyze results" sequence into a feedback loop that can be executed automatically by the computer.

  2. Regeneration in natural and logged tropical rain forest : modelling seed dispersal and regeneration

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ulft, Lambertus Henricus van

    2004-01-01

    Regeneration and disturbance are thought to play key roles in the maintenance of the high tree species diversity in tropical rain forests. Nevertheless, the earliest stages in the regeneration of tropical rain forest trees, from seed production to established seedlings, have received little

  3. Modeling Supermassive Black Holes in Cosmological Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tremmel, Michael

    My thesis work has focused on improving the implementation of supermassive black hole (SMBH) physics in cosmological hydrodynamic simulations. SMBHs are ubiquitous in mas- sive galaxies, as well as bulge-less galaxies and dwarfs, and are thought to be a critical component to massive galaxy evolution. Still, much is unknown about how SMBHs form, grow, and affect their host galaxies. Cosmological simulations are an invaluable tool for un- derstanding the formation of galaxies, self-consistently tracking their evolution with realistic merger and gas accretion histories. SMBHs are often modeled in these simulations (generally as a necessity to produce realistic massive galaxies), but their implementations are commonly simplified in ways that can limit what can be learned. Current and future observations are opening new windows into the lifecycle of SMBHs and their host galaxies, but require more detailed, physically motivated simulations. Within the novel framework I have developed, SMBHs 1) are seeded at early times without a priori assumptions of galaxy occupation, 2) grow in a way that accounts for the angular momentum of gas, and 3) experience realistic orbital evolution. I show how this model, properly tuned with a novel parameter optimiza- tion technique, results in realistic galaxies and SMBHs. Utilizing the unique ability of these simulations to capture the dynamical evolution of SMBHs, I present the first self-consistent prediction for the formation timescales of close SMBH pairs, precursors to SMBH binaries and merger events potentially detected by future gravitational wave experiments.

  4. A Study on the Impact of Observation Assimilation on the Numerical Simulation of Tropical Cyclones JAL and THANE Using 3DVAR

    KAUST Repository

    Viswanadhapalli, Yesubabu

    2013-12-08

    In this work, the impact of assimilation of conventional and satellite remote sensing observations (Oceansat-2 winds, MODIS temperature/humidity profiles) is studied on the simulation of two tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal region of the Indian Ocean using a three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3DVAR) technique. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)-Advanced Research WRF (ARW) mesoscale model is used to simulate the severe cyclone JAL: 5–8 November 2010 and the very severe cyclone THANE: 27–30 December 2011 with a double nested domain configuration and with a horizontal resolution of 27 × 9 km. Five numerical experiments are conducted for each cyclone. In the control run (CTL) the National Centers for Environmental Prediction global forecast system analysis and forecasts available at 50 km resolution were used for the initial and boundary conditions. In the second (VARAWS), third (VARSCAT), fourth (VARMODIS) and fifth (VARALL) experiments, the conventional surface observations, Oceansat-2 ocean surface wind vectors, temperature and humidity profiles of MODIS, and all observations were respectively used for assimilation. Results indicate meager impact with surface observations, and relatively higher impact with scatterometer wind data in the case of the JAL cyclone, and with MODIS temperature and humidity profiles in the case of THANE for the simulation of intensity and track parameters. These relative impacts are related to the area coverage of scatterometer winds and MODIS profiles in the respective storms, and are confirmed by the overall better results obtained with assimilation of all observations in both the cases. The improvements in track prediction are mainly contributed by the assimilation of scatterometer wind vector data, which reduced errors in the initial position and size of the cyclone vortices. The errors are reduced by 25, 21, 38 % in vector track position, and by 57, 36, 39 % in intensity, at 24, 48, 72

  5. Advances in NLTE Modeling for Integrated Simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Scott, H A; Hansen, S B

    2009-07-08

    The last few years have seen significant progress in constructing the atomic models required for non-local thermodynamic equilibrium (NLTE) simulations. Along with this has come an increased understanding of the requirements for accurately modeling the ionization balance, energy content and radiative properties of different elements for a wide range of densities and temperatures. Much of this progress is the result of a series of workshops dedicated to comparing the results from different codes and computational approaches applied to a series of test problems. The results of these workshops emphasized the importance of atomic model completeness, especially in doubly excited states and autoionization transitions, to calculating ionization balance, and the importance of accurate, detailed atomic data to producing reliable spectra. We describe a simple screened-hydrogenic model that calculates NLTE ionization balance with surprising accuracy, at a low enough computational cost for routine use in radiation-hydrodynamics codes. The model incorporates term splitting, {Delta}n = 0 transitions, and approximate UTA widths for spectral calculations, with results comparable to those of much more detailed codes. Simulations done with this model have been increasingly successful at matching experimental data for laser-driven systems and hohlraums. Accurate and efficient atomic models are just one requirement for integrated NLTE simulations. Coupling the atomic kinetics to hydrodynamics and radiation transport constrains both discretizations and algorithms to retain energy conservation, accuracy and stability. In particular, the strong coupling between radiation and populations can require either very short timesteps or significantly modified radiation transport algorithms to account for NLTE material response. Considerations such as these continue to provide challenges for NLTE simulations.

  6. Performance modelling and simulation of an absorption solar cooling system for Malaysia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Assilzadeh, F.; Ali, Y.; Kamaruzzaman Sopian

    2006-01-01

    Solar radiation contains huge amounts of energy and is required for almost all the natural processes on earth. Solar-powered air-conditioning has many advantages when compared to normal electricity system. This paper presents a solar cooling system that has been designed for Malaysia and other tropical regions using evacuated tube solar collector and LiBr absorption system. A modelling and simulation of absorption solar cooling system is modeled in Transient System Simulation (TRNSYS) environment. The typical meteorological year file containing the weather parameters is used to simulate the system. Then a system optimization is carried out in order to select the appropriate type of collector, the optimum size of storage tank, the optimum collector slope and area and the optimum thermostat setting of the auxiliary boiler

  7. Mesoscopic modelling and simulation of soft matter.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schiller, Ulf D; Krüger, Timm; Henrich, Oliver

    2017-12-20

    The deformability of soft condensed matter often requires modelling of hydrodynamical aspects to gain quantitative understanding. This, however, requires specialised methods that can resolve the multiscale nature of soft matter systems. We review a number of the most popular simulation methods that have emerged, such as Langevin dynamics, dissipative particle dynamics, multi-particle collision dynamics, sometimes also referred to as stochastic rotation dynamics, and the lattice-Boltzmann method. We conclude this review with a short glance at current compute architectures for high-performance computing and community codes for soft matter simulation.

  8. Numerical model simulation of atmospheric coolant plumes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gaillard, P.

    1980-01-01

    The effect of humid atmospheric coolants on the atmosphere is simulated by means of a three-dimensional numerical model. The atmosphere is defined by its natural vertical profiles of horizontal velocity, temperature, pressure and relative humidity. Effluent discharge is characterised by its vertical velocity and the temperature of air satured with water vapour. The subject of investigation is the area in the vicinity of the point of discharge, with due allowance for the wake effect of the tower and buildings and, where application, wind veer with altitude. The model equations express the conservation relationships for mometum, energy, total mass and water mass, for an incompressible fluid behaving in accordance with the Boussinesq assumptions. Condensation is represented by a simple thermodynamic model, and turbulent fluxes are simulated by introduction of turbulent viscosity and diffusivity data based on in-situ and experimental water model measurements. The three-dimensional problem expressed in terms of the primitive variables (u, v, w, p) is governed by an elliptic equation system which is solved numerically by application of an explicit time-marching algorithm in order to predict the steady-flow velocity distribution, temperature, water vapour concentration and the liquid-water concentration defining the visible plume. Windstill conditions are simulated by a program processing the elliptic equations in an axisymmetrical revolution coordinate system. The calculated visible plumes are compared with plumes observed on site with a view to validate the models [fr

  9. Modeling, simulation and optimization of bipedal walking

    CERN Document Server

    Berns, Karsten

    2013-01-01

    The model-based investigation of motions of anthropomorphic systems is an important interdisciplinary research topic involving specialists from many fields such as Robotics, Biomechanics, Physiology, Orthopedics, Psychology, Neurosciences, Sports, Computer Graphics and Applied Mathematics. This book presents a study of basic locomotion forms such as walking and running is of particular interest due to the high demand on dynamic coordination, actuator efficiency and balance control. Mathematical models and numerical simulation and optimization techniques are explained, in combination with experimental data, which can help to better understand the basic underlying mechanisms of these motions and to improve them. Example topics treated in this book are Modeling techniques for anthropomorphic bipedal walking systems Optimized walking motions for different objective functions Identification of objective functions from measurements Simulation and optimization approaches for humanoid robots Biologically inspired con...

  10. Multiphase reacting flows modelling and simulation

    CERN Document Server

    Marchisio, Daniele L

    2007-01-01

    The papers in this book describe the most widely applicable modeling approaches and are organized in six groups covering from fundamentals to relevant applications. In the first part, some fundamentals of multiphase turbulent reacting flows are covered. In particular the introduction focuses on basic notions of turbulence theory in single-phase and multi-phase systems as well as on the interaction between turbulence and chemistry. In the second part, models for the physical and chemical processes involved are discussed. Among other things, particular emphasis is given to turbulence modeling strategies for multiphase flows based on the kinetic theory for granular flows. Next, the different numerical methods based on Lagrangian and/or Eulerian schemes are presented. In particular the most popular numerical approaches of computational fluid dynamics codes are described (i.e., Direct Numerical Simulation, Large Eddy Simulation, and Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes approach). The book will cover particle-based meth...

  11. Seven challenges for modelling indirect transmission: Vector-borne diseases, macroparasites and neglected tropical diseases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Déirdre Hollingsworth

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Many of the challenges which face modellers of directly transmitted pathogens also arise when modelling the epidemiology of pathogens with indirect transmission – whether through environmental stages, vectors, intermediate hosts or multiple hosts. In particular, understanding the roles of different hosts, how to measure contact and infection patterns, heterogeneities in contact rates, and the dynamics close to elimination are all relevant challenges, regardless of the mode of transmission. However, there remain a number of challenges that are specific and unique to modelling vector-borne diseases and macroparasites. Moreover, many of the neglected tropical diseases which are currently targeted for control and elimination are vector-borne, macroparasitic, or both, and so this article includes challenges which will assist in accelerating the control of these high-burden diseases. Here, we discuss the challenges of indirect measures of infection in humans, whether through vectors or transmission life stages and in estimating the contribution of different host groups to transmission. We also discuss the issues of “evolution-proof” interventions against vector-borne disease.

  12. Seven challenges for modelling indirect transmission: vector-borne diseases, macroparasites and neglected tropical diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hollingsworth, T Déirdre; Pulliam, Juliet R C; Funk, Sebastian; Truscott, James E; Isham, Valerie; Lloyd, Alun L

    2015-03-01

    Many of the challenges which face modellers of directly transmitted pathogens also arise when modelling the epidemiology of pathogens with indirect transmission--whether through environmental stages, vectors, intermediate hosts or multiple hosts. In particular, understanding the roles of different hosts, how to measure contact and infection patterns, heterogeneities in contact rates, and the dynamics close to elimination are all relevant challenges, regardless of the mode of transmission. However, there remain a number of challenges that are specific and unique to modelling vector-borne diseases and macroparasites. Moreover, many of the neglected tropical diseases which are currently targeted for control and elimination are vector-borne, macroparasitic, or both, and so this article includes challenges which will assist in accelerating the control of these high-burden diseases. Here, we discuss the challenges of indirect measures of infection in humans, whether through vectors or transmission life stages and in estimating the contribution of different host groups to transmission. We also discuss the issues of "evolution-proof" interventions against vector-borne disease. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. Advancing Material Models for Automotive Forming Simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vegter, H.; An, Y.; Horn, C.H.L.J. ten; Atzema, E.H.; Roelofsen, M.E.

    2005-01-01

    Simulations in automotive industry need more advanced material models to achieve highly reliable forming and springback predictions. Conventional material models implemented in the FEM-simulation models are not capable to describe the plastic material behaviour during monotonic strain paths with sufficient accuracy. Recently, ESI and Corus co-operate on the implementation of an advanced material model in the FEM-code PAMSTAMP 2G. This applies to the strain hardening model, the influence of strain rate, and the description of the yield locus in these models. A subsequent challenge is the description of the material after a change of strain path.The use of advanced high strength steels in the automotive industry requires a description of plastic material behaviour of multiphase steels. The simplest variant is dual phase steel consisting of a ferritic and a martensitic phase. Multiphase materials also contain a bainitic phase in addition to the ferritic and martensitic phase. More physical descriptions of strain hardening than simple fitted Ludwik/Nadai curves are necessary.Methods to predict plastic behaviour of single-phase materials use a simple dislocation interaction model based on the formed cells structures only. At Corus, a new method is proposed to predict plastic behaviour of multiphase materials have to take hard phases into account, which deform less easily. The resulting deformation gradients create geometrically necessary dislocations. Additional micro-structural information such as morphology and size of hard phase particles or grains is necessary to derive the strain hardening models for this type of materials.Measurements available from the Numisheet benchmarks allow these models to be validated. At Corus, additional measured values are available from cross-die tests. This laboratory test can attain critical deformations by large variations in blank size and processing conditions. The tests are a powerful tool in optimising forming simulations prior

  14. Modelling and simulation of thermal power plants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eborn, J.

    1998-02-01

    Mathematical modelling and simulation are important tools when dealing with engineering systems that today are becoming increasingly more complex. Integrated production and recycling of materials are trends that give rise to heterogenous systems, which are difficult to handle within one area of expertise. Model libraries are an excellent way to package engineering knowledge of systems and units to be reused by those who are not experts in modelling. Many commercial packages provide good model libraries, but they are usually domain-specific and closed. Heterogenous, multi-domain systems requires open model libraries written in general purpose modelling languages. This thesis describes a model database for thermal power plants written in the object-oriented modelling language OMOLA. The models are based on first principles. Subunits describe volumes with pressure and enthalpy dynamics and flows of heat or different media. The subunits are used to build basic units such as pumps, valves and heat exchangers which can be used to build system models. Several applications are described; a heat recovery steam generator, equipment for juice blending, steam generation in a sulphuric acid plant and a condensing steam plate heat exchanger. Model libraries for industrial use must be validated against measured data. The thesis describes how parameter estimation methods can be used for model validation. Results from a case-study on parameter optimization of a non-linear drum boiler model show how the technique can be used 32 refs, 21 figs

  15. Linking hydraulic traits to tropical forest function in a size-structured and trait-driven model (TFS v.1-Hydro)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Christoffersen, Bradley O.; Gloor, Manuel; Fauset, Sophie; Fyllas, Nikolaos M.; Galbraith, David R.; Baker, Timothy R.; Kruijt, Bart; Rowland, Lucy; Fisher, Rosie A.; Binks, Oliver J.; Sevanto, Sanna; Xu, Chonggang; Jansen, Steven; Choat, Brendan; Mencuccini, Maurizio; McDowell, Nate G.; Meir, Patrick

    2016-01-01

    Forest ecosystem models based on heuristic water stress functions poorly predict tropical forest response to drought partly because they do not capture the diversity of hydraulic traits (including variation in tree size) observed in tropical forests. We developed a continuous porous media

  16. Validity of microgravity simulation models on earth

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Regnard, J; Heer, M; Drummer, C

    2001-01-01

    Many studies have used water immersion and head-down bed rest as experimental models to simulate responses to microgravity. However, some data collected during space missions are at variance or in contrast with observations collected from experimental models. These discrepancies could reflect...... incomplete knowledge of the characteristics inherent to each model. During water immersion, the hydrostatic pressure lowers the peripheral vascular capacity and causes increased thoracic blood volume and high vascular perfusion. In turn, these changes lead to high urinary flow, low vasomotor tone, and a high...

  17. Evaluating the Credibility of Transport Processes in Simulations of Ozone Recovery using the Global Modeling Initiative Three-dimensional Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strahan, Susan E.; Douglass, Anne R.

    2004-01-01

    The Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) has integrated two 36-year simulations of an ozone recovery scenario with an offline chemistry and tra nsport model using two different meteorological inputs. Physically ba sed diagnostics, derived from satellite and aircraft data sets, are d escribed and then used to evaluate the realism of temperature and transport processes in the simulations. Processes evaluated include barri er formation in the subtropics and polar regions, and extratropical w ave-driven transport. Some diagnostics are especially relevant to sim ulation of lower stratospheric ozone, but most are applicable to any stratospheric simulation. The global temperature evaluation, which is relevant to gas phase chemical reactions, showed that both sets of me teorological fields have near climatological values at all latitudes and seasons at 30 hPa and below. Both simulations showed weakness in upper stratospheric wave driving. The simulation using input from a g eneral circulation model (GMI(GCM)) showed a very good residual circulation in the tropics and Northern Hemisphere. The simulation with inp ut from a data assimilation system (GMI(DAS)) performed better in the midlatitudes than it did at high latitudes. Neither simulation forms a realistic barrier at the vortex edge, leading to uncertainty in the fate of ozone-depleted vortex air. Overall, tracer transport in the offline GML(GCM) has greater fidelity throughout the stratosphere tha n it does in the GMI(DAS)

  18. Mathematical models and numerical simulation in electromagnetism

    CERN Document Server

    Bermúdez, Alfredo; Salgado, Pilar

    2014-01-01

    The book represents a basic support for a master course in electromagnetism oriented to numerical simulation. The main goal of the book is that the reader knows the boundary-value problems of partial differential equations that should be solved in order to perform computer simulation of electromagnetic processes. Moreover it includes a part devoted to electric circuit theory  based on ordinary differential equations. The book is mainly oriented to electric engineering applications, going from the general to the specific, namely, from the full Maxwell’s equations to the particular cases of electrostatics, direct current, magnetostatics and eddy currents models. Apart from standard exercises related to analytical calculus, the book includes some others oriented to real-life applications solved with MaxFEM free simulation software.

  19. Modeling and simulation of economic processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bogdan Brumar

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available In general, any activity requires a longer action often characterized by a degree of uncertainty, insecurity, in terms of size of the objective pursued. Because of the complexity of real economic systems, the stochastic dependencies between different variables and parameters considered, not all systems can be adequately represented by a model that can be solved by analytical methods and covering all issues for management decision analysis-economic horizon real. Often in such cases, it is considered that the simulation technique is the only alternative available. Using simulation techniques to study real-world systems often requires a laborious work. Making a simulation experiment is a process that takes place in several stages.

  20. Simulation as a surgical teaching model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruiz-Gómez, José Luis; Martín-Parra, José Ignacio; González-Noriega, Mónica; Redondo-Figuero, Carlos Godofredo; Manuel-Palazuelos, José Carlos

    2018-01-01

    Teaching of surgery has been affected by many factors over the last years, such as the reduction of working hours, the optimization of the use of the operating room or patient safety. Traditional teaching methodology fails to reduce the impact of these factors on surgeońs training. Simulation as a teaching model minimizes such impact, and is more effective than traditional teaching methods for integrating knowledge and clinical-surgical skills. Simulation complements clinical assistance with training, creating a safe learning environment where patient safety is not affected, and ethical or legal conflicts are avoided. Simulation uses learning methodologies that allow teaching individualization, adapting it to the learning needs of each student. It also allows training of all kinds of technical, cognitive or behavioural skills. Copyright © 2017 AEC. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  1. Differences in rain rate intensities between TRMM observations and community atmosphere model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Yi; Bowman, Kenneth P.; Jackson, Charles

    2007-01-01

    Precipitation related latent heating is important in driving the atmospheric general circulation and in generating intraseasonal to decadal atmospheric variability. Our ability to project future climate change, especially trends in costly precipitation extremes, hinges upon whether coupled GCMs capture processes that affect precipitation characteristics. Our study compares the tropical-subtropical precipitation characteristics of simulations by the NCAR CAM3.1 atmospheric GCM and observations derived from the NASA Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite. Despite a fairly good simulation of the annual mean rain rate, CAM rains about 10-50% more often than the real world and fails to capture heavy rainfall associated with deep convective systems over subtropical South America and U.S. Southern Plains. When it rains, there is a likelihood of 0.96-1.0 that it rains lightly in the model, compared to values of 0.84-1.0 in TRMM data. On the other hand, the likelihood of the occurrence of moderate to heavy rainfall is an order of magnitude higher in observations (0.12-0.2) than that in the model (model compensates for the lack of heavy precipitation through raining more frequently within the light rain category, which leads to an annual rainfall amount close to what is observed. CAM captures the qualitative change of rain rate PDF from a "dry" oceanic to a "wet" oceanic region, but it fails to simulate the change of precipitation characteristics from an oceanic region to a land region where thunderstorm rainfall dominates.

  2. Upscaling Empirically Based Conceptualisations to Model Tropical Dominant Hydrological Processes for Historical Land Use Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toohey, R.; Boll, J.; Brooks, E.; Jones, J.

    2009-12-01

    Surface runoff and percolation to ground water are two hydrological processes of concern to the Atlantic slope of Costa Rica because of their impacts on flooding and drinking water contamination. As per legislation, the Costa Rican Government funds land use management from the farm to the regional scale to improve or conserve hydrological ecosystem services. In this study, we examined how land use (e.g., forest, coffee, sugar cane, and pasture) affects hydrological response at the point, plot (1 m2), and the field scale (1-6ha) to empirically conceptualize the dominant hydrological processes in each land use. Using our field data, we upscaled these conceptual processes into a physically-based distributed hydrological model at the field, watershed (130 km2), and regional (1500 km2) scales. At the point and plot scales, the presence of macropores and large roots promoted greater vertical percolation and subsurface connectivity in the forest and coffee field sites. The lack of macropores and large roots, plus the addition of management artifacts (e.g., surface compaction and a plough layer), altered the dominant hydrological processes by increasing lateral flow and surface runoff in the pasture and sugar cane field sites. Macropores and topography were major influences on runoff generation at the field scale. Also at the field scale, antecedent moisture conditions suggest a threshold behavior as a temporal control on surface runoff generation. However, in this tropical climate with very intense rainstorms, annual surface runoff was less than 10% of annual precipitation at the field scale. Significant differences in soil and hydrological characteristics observed at the point and plot scales appear to have less significance when upscaled to the field scale. At the point and plot scales, percolation acted as the dominant hydrological process in this tropical environment. However, at the field scale for sugar cane and pasture sites, saturation-excess runoff increased as

  3. Modeling and simulation of photovoltaic solar panel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Belarbi, M.; Haddouche, K.; Midoun, A.

    2006-01-01

    In this article, we present a new approach for estimating the model parameters of a photovoltaic solar panel according to the irradiance and temperature. The parameters of the one diode model are given from the knowledge of three operating points: short-circuit, open circuit, and maximum power. In the first step, the adopted approach concerns the resolution of the system of equations constituting the three operating points to write all the model parameters according to series resistance. Secondly, we make an iterative resolution at the optimal operating point by using the Newton-Raphson method to calculate the series resistance value as well as the model parameters. Once the panel model is identified, we consider other equations for taking into account the irradiance and temperature effect. The simulation results show the convergence speed of the model parameters and the possibility of visualizing the electrical behaviour of the panel according to the irradiance and temperature. Let us note that a sensitivity of the algorithm at the optimal operating point was observed owing to the fact that a small variation of the optimal voltage value leads to a very great variation of the identified parameters values. With the identified model, we can develop algorithms of maximum power point tracking, and make simulations of a solar water pumping system.(Author)

  4. Deep Drawing Simulations With Different Polycrystalline Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duchêne, Laurent; de Montleau, Pierre; Bouvier, Salima; Habraken, Anne Marie

    2004-06-01

    The goal of this research is to study the anisotropic material behavior during forming processes, represented by both complex yield loci and kinematic-isotropic hardening models. A first part of this paper describes the main concepts of the `Stress-strain interpolation' model that has been implemented in the non-linear finite element code Lagamine. This model consists of a local description of the yield locus based on the texture of the material through the full constraints Taylor's model. The texture evolution due to plastic deformations is computed throughout the FEM simulations. This `local yield locus' approach was initially linked to the classical isotropic Swift hardening law. Recently, a more complex hardening model was implemented: the physically-based microstructural model of Teodosiu. It takes into account intergranular heterogeneity due to the evolution of dislocation structures, that affects isotropic and kinematic hardening. The influence of the hardening model is compared to the influence of the texture evolution thanks to deep drawing simulations.

  5. Facebook's personal page modelling and simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarlis, Apostolos S.; Sakas, Damianos P.; Vlachos, D. S.

    2015-02-01

    In this paper we will try to define the utility of Facebook's Personal Page marketing method. This tool that Facebook provides, is modelled and simulated using iThink in the context of a Facebook marketing agency. The paper has leveraged the system's dynamic paradigm to conduct Facebook marketing tools and methods modelling, using iThink™ system to implement them. It uses the design science research methodology for the proof of concept of the models and modelling processes. The following model has been developed for a social media marketing agent/company, Facebook platform oriented and tested in real circumstances. This model is finalized through a number of revisions and iterators of the design, development, simulation, testing and evaluation processes. The validity and usefulness of this Facebook marketing model for the day-to-day decision making are authenticated by the management of the company organization. Facebook's Personal Page method can be adjusted, depending on the situation, in order to maximize the total profit of the company which is to bring new customers, keep the interest of the old customers and deliver traffic to its website.

  6. A simulation model for material accounting systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coulter, C.A.; Thomas, K.E.

    1987-01-01

    A general-purpose model that was developed to simulate the operation of a chemical processing facility for nuclear materials has been extended to describe material measurement and accounting procedures as well. The model now provides descriptors for material balance areas, a large class of measurement instrument types and their associated measurement errors for various classes of materials, the measurement instruments themselves with their individual calibration schedules, and material balance closures. Delayed receipt of measurement results (as for off-line analytical chemistry assay), with interim use of a provisional measurement value, can be accurately represented. The simulation model can be used to estimate inventory difference variances for processing areas that do not operate at steady state, to evaluate the timeliness of measurement information, to determine process impacts of measurement requirements, and to evaluate the effectiveness of diversion-detection algorithms. Such information is usually difficult to obtain by other means. Use of the measurement simulation model is illustrated by applying it to estimate inventory difference variances for two material balance area structures of a fictitious nuclear material processing line

  7. Theory, modeling and simulation: Annual report 1993

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dunning, T.H. Jr.; Garrett, B.C.

    1994-07-01

    Developing the knowledge base needed to address the environmental restoration issues of the US Department of Energy requires a fundamental understanding of molecules and their interactions in insolation and in liquids, on surfaces, and at interfaces. To meet these needs, the PNL has established the Environmental and Molecular Sciences Laboratory (EMSL) and will soon begin construction of a new, collaborative research facility devoted to advancing the understanding of environmental molecular science. Research in the Theory, Modeling, and Simulation program (TMS), which is one of seven research directorates in the EMSL, will play a critical role in understanding molecular processes important in restoring DOE`s research, development and production sites, including understanding the migration and reactions of contaminants in soils and groundwater, the development of separation process for isolation of pollutants, the development of improved materials for waste storage, understanding the enzymatic reactions involved in the biodegradation of contaminants, and understanding the interaction of hazardous chemicals with living organisms. The research objectives of the TMS program are to apply available techniques to study fundamental molecular processes involved in natural and contaminated systems; to extend current techniques to treat molecular systems of future importance and to develop techniques for addressing problems that are computationally intractable at present; to apply molecular modeling techniques to simulate molecular processes occurring in the multispecies, multiphase systems characteristic of natural and polluted environments; and to extend current molecular modeling techniques to treat complex molecular systems and to improve the reliability and accuracy of such simulations. The program contains three research activities: Molecular Theory/Modeling, Solid State Theory, and Biomolecular Modeling/Simulation. Extended abstracts are presented for 89 studies.

  8. Theory, modeling and simulation: Annual report 1993

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dunning, T.H. Jr.; Garrett, B.C.

    1994-07-01

    Developing the knowledge base needed to address the environmental restoration issues of the US Department of Energy requires a fundamental understanding of molecules and their interactions in insolation and in liquids, on surfaces, and at interfaces. To meet these needs, the PNL has established the Environmental and Molecular Sciences Laboratory (EMSL) and will soon begin construction of a new, collaborative research facility devoted to advancing the understanding of environmental molecular science. Research in the Theory, Modeling, and Simulation program (TMS), which is one of seven research directorates in the EMSL, will play a critical role in understanding molecular processes important in restoring DOE's research, development and production sites, including understanding the migration and reactions of contaminants in soils and groundwater, the development of separation process for isolation of pollutants, the development of improved materials for waste storage, understanding the enzymatic reactions involved in the biodegradation of contaminants, and understanding the interaction of hazardous chemicals with living organisms. The research objectives of the TMS program are to apply available techniques to study fundamental molecular processes involved in natural and contaminated systems; to extend current techniques to treat molecular systems of future importance and to develop techniques for addressing problems that are computationally intractable at present; to apply molecular modeling techniques to simulate molecular processes occurring in the multispecies, multiphase systems characteristic of natural and polluted environments; and to extend current molecular modeling techniques to treat complex molecular systems and to improve the reliability and accuracy of such simulations. The program contains three research activities: Molecular Theory/Modeling, Solid State Theory, and Biomolecular Modeling/Simulation. Extended abstracts are presented for 89 studies

  9. NUMERICAL MODEL APPLICATION IN ROWING SIMULATOR DESIGN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petr Chmátal

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the research was to carry out a hydraulic design of rowing/sculling and paddling simulator. Nowadays there are two main approaches in the simulator design. The first one includes a static water with no artificial movement and counts on specially cut oars to provide the same resistance in the water. The second approach, on the other hand uses pumps or similar devices to force the water to circulate but both of the designs share many problems. Such problems are affecting already built facilities and can be summarized as unrealistic feeling, unwanted turbulent flow and bad velocity profile. Therefore, the goal was to design a new rowing simulator that would provide nature-like conditions for the racers and provide an unmatched experience. In order to accomplish this challenge, it was decided to use in-depth numerical modeling to solve the hydraulic problems. The general measures for the design were taken in accordance with space availability of the simulator ́s housing. The entire research was coordinated with other stages of the construction using BIM. The detailed geometry was designed using a numerical model in Ansys Fluent and parametric auto-optimization tools which led to minimum negative hydraulic phenomena and decreased investment and operational costs due to the decreased hydraulic losses in the system.

  10. eShopper modeling and simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petrushin, Valery A.

    2001-03-01

    The advent of e-commerce gives an opportunity to shift the paradigm of customer communication into a highly interactive mode. The new generation of commercial Web servers, such as the Blue Martini's server, combines the collection of data on a customer behavior with real-time processing and dynamic tailoring of a feedback page. The new opportunities for direct product marketing and cross selling are arriving. The key problem is what kind of information do we need to achieve these goals, or in other words, how do we model the customer? The paper is devoted to customer modeling and simulation. The focus is on modeling an individual customer. The model is based on the customer's transaction data, click stream data, and demographics. The model includes the hierarchical profile of a customer's preferences to different types of products and brands; consumption models for the different types of products; the current focus, trends, and stochastic models for time intervals between purchases; product affinity models; and some generalized features, such as purchasing power, sensitivity to advertising, price sensitivity, etc. This type of model is used for predicting the date of the next visit, overall spending, and spending for different types of products and brands. For some type of stores (for example, a supermarket) and stable customers, it is possible to forecast the shopping lists rather accurately. The forecasting techniques are discussed. The forecasting results can be used for on- line direct marketing, customer retention, and inventory management. The customer model can also be used as a generative model for simulating the customer's purchasing behavior in different situations and for estimating customer's features.

  11. Knowledge Transposition from Tropical Fish Serum Proteins to Fundamental Education Students Through Biochemical Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E.V.M. Maciel de Carvalho

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available The subject was represented and discussed at The National Week of Science and Technology, UFPE, an initiative from The Ministry of Science and Technology to encourage children and people in science and technology activities. The work aimed to renew the importance to transmit knowledge from simple, imaginative, biochemical models and interactive teaching. The stand tool contained an aquarium with fishes, five scale models showing peptide bond, carbohydrate inhibited lectin molecule, hemagglutination reaction, lectin-bacterium surface interaction and enzyme-substract-inhibitor. Posters described tropical fish importance and methods applied to obtain fish serum and organs to purify lectins and protein inhibitors as well as to extract tissue DNA; notions were transmitted on fish immunology and diseases. The students were attracted and impressed with the exotic fishes most cultivated in Brazil; they asked if it is necessary to kill the fish to extract lectin and about lectin importance. Students were also interested to know if all fish enzyme/inhibitors are favorable to the own fish organism. The work succeeded to inform and stimulate future scientists in the field and to awake their scientific curiosity.

  12. The Application of Barnes Filter to Positioning the Center of Landed Tropical Cyclone in Numerical Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haibo Zou

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available After a tropical cyclone (TC making landfall, the numerical model output sea level pressure (SLP presents many small-scale perturbations which significantly influence the positioning of the TC center. To fix the problem, Barnes filter with weighting parameters C=2500 and G=0.35 is used to remove these perturbations. A case study of TC Fung-Wong which landed China in 2008 shows that Barnes filter not only cleanly removes these perturbations, but also well preserves the TC signals. Meanwhile, the centers (track obtained from SLP processed with Barnes filter are much closer to the observations than that from SLP without Barnes filter. Based on the distance difference (DD between the TC center determined by SLP with/without Barnes filter and observation, statistics analysis of 12 TCs which landed China during 2005–2015 shows that in most cases (about 85% the DDs are small (between −30 km and 30 km, while in a few cases (about 15% the DDs are large (greater than 30 km even 70 km. This further verifies that the TC centers identified from SLP with Barnes filter are more accurate compared to that directly obtained from model output SLP. Moreover, the TC track identified with Barnes filter is much smoother than that without Barnes filter.

  13. A collision model in plasma particle simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ma Yanyun; Chang Wenwei; Yin Yan; Yue Zongwu; Cao Lihua; Liu Daqing

    2000-01-01

    In order to offset the collisional effects reduced by using finite-size particles, β particle clouds are used in particle simulation codes (β is the ratio of charge or mass of modeling particles to real ones). The method of impulse approximation (strait line orbit approximation) is used to analyze the scattering cross section of β particle clouds plasmas. The authors can obtain the relation of the value of a and β and scattering cross section (a is the radius of β particle cloud). By using this relation the authors can determine the value of a and β so that the collisional effects of the modeling system is correspondent with the real one. The authors can also adjust the values of a and β so that the authors can enhance or reduce the collisional effects fictitiously. The results of simulation are in good agreement with the theoretical ones

  14. Macro Level Simulation Model Of Space Shuttle Processing

    Science.gov (United States)

    2000-01-01

    The contents include: 1) Space Shuttle Processing Simulation Model; 2) Knowledge Acquisition; 3) Simulation Input Analysis; 4) Model Applications in Current Shuttle Environment; and 5) Model Applications for Future Reusable Launch Vehicles (RLV's). This paper is presented in viewgraph form.

  15. High-Fidelity Roadway Modeling and Simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jie; Papelis, Yiannis; Shen, Yuzhong; Unal, Ozhan; Cetin, Mecit

    2010-01-01

    Roads are an essential feature in our daily lives. With the advances in computing technologies, 2D and 3D road models are employed in many applications, such as computer games and virtual environments. Traditional road models were generated by professional artists manually using modeling software tools such as Maya and 3ds Max. This approach requires both highly specialized and sophisticated skills and massive manual labor. Automatic road generation based on procedural modeling can create road models using specially designed computer algorithms or procedures, reducing the tedious manual editing needed for road modeling dramatically. But most existing procedural modeling methods for road generation put emphasis on the visual effects of the generated roads, not the geometrical and architectural fidelity. This limitation seriously restricts the applicability of the generated road models. To address this problem, this paper proposes a high-fidelity roadway generation method that takes into account road design principles practiced by civil engineering professionals, and as a result, the generated roads can support not only general applications such as games and simulations in which roads are used as 3D assets, but also demanding civil engineering applications, which requires accurate geometrical models of roads. The inputs to the proposed method include road specifications, civil engineering road design rules, terrain information, and surrounding environment. Then the proposed method generates in real time 3D roads that have both high visual and geometrical fidelities. This paper discusses in details the procedures that convert 2D roads specified in shape files into 3D roads and civil engineering road design principles. The proposed method can be used in many applications that have stringent requirements on high precision 3D models, such as driving simulations and road design prototyping. Preliminary results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

  16. Difficulties with True Interoperability in Modeling & Simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-12-01

    Standards in M&S cover multiple layers of technical abstraction. There are middleware specifica- tions, such as the High Level Architecture (HLA) ( IEEE Xplore ... IEEE Xplore Digital Library. 2010. 1516-2010 IEEE Standard for Modeling and Simulation (M&S) High Level Architecture (HLA) – Framework and Rules...using different communication protocols being able to allow da- 2642978-1-4577-2109-0/11/$26.00 ©2011 IEEE Report Documentation Page Form ApprovedOMB No

  17. Agent Based Modelling for Social Simulation

    OpenAIRE

    Smit, S.K.; Ubink, E.M.; Vecht, B. van der; Langley, D.J.

    2013-01-01

    This document is the result of an exploratory project looking into the status of, and opportunities for Agent Based Modelling (ABM) at TNO. The project focussed on ABM applications containing social interactions and human factors, which we termed ABM for social simulation (ABM4SS). During the course of this project two workshops were organized. At these workshops, a wide range of experts, both ABM experts and domain experts, worked on several potential applications of ABM. The results and ins...

  18. Mathematical models for photovoltaic solar panel simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Santos, Jose Airton A. dos; Gnoatto, Estor; Fischborn, Marcos; Kavanagh, Edward [Universidade Tecnologica Federal do Parana (UTFPR), Medianeira, PR (Brazil)], Emails: airton@utfpr.edu.br, gnoatto@utfpr.edu.br, fisch@utfpr.edu.br, kavanagh@utfpr.edu.br

    2008-07-01

    A photovoltaic generator is subject to several variations of solar intensity, ambient temperature or load, that change your point of operation. This way, your behavior should be analyzed by such alterations, to optimize your operation. The present work sought to simulate a photovoltaic generator, of polycrystalline silicon, by characteristics supplied by the manufacturer, and to compare the results of two mathematical models with obtained values of field, in the city of Cascavel, for a period of one year. (author)

  19. Hydrology and Soil Erosion in Tropical Rainforests and Pasture Lands on the Atherton Tablelands, North Queensland, Australia - a rainfall simulator study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joanne, Joanne; Ciesiolka, Cyril

    2010-05-01

    The Barron and Johnstone Rivers rise in the basaltic Atherton Tableland, North Queensland, Australia, and flow into the Coral Sea and Great Barrier Reef World Heritage Area (GBRWHA). Natural rainforest in this region was cleared for settlement in the early 20th century. Rapid decline in soil fertility during the 1940's and 50's forced landholders to turn to pasture based industries from row crop agriculture. Since then, these pasture based industries have intensified. The intensified land use has been linked to increases in sediment and nutrient levels in terrestrial runoff and identified as a major environmental threat to the GBRWHA, which has raised alarm for the tourist industry and resource managers. Studies linking land-use to pollutant discharge are often based on measurements and modelling of end of catchment measurements of water quality. Whilst such measurements can be a reasonable indicator of the effects of land use on pollutant discharge to waterways, they are often a gross assessment. This project used rainfall simulations to investigate the relationship between land use and management with sources and sinks of runoff and soil erosion within the Barron and Johnstone Rivers catchments. Rainfall simulations were conducted and pollutant loads measured in natural rainforest, as well as dairy and beef farming systems. The dairy farming systems included an effluent fed pasture, a high mineral fertilizer and supplementary irrigation farm, and a rainfed organic pasture that relied on tropical legumes and introduced grasses and returned organic material to the soil. One of the beef farming systems used a 7-10 day rotation with a low fertilizer regime (kikuyu mostly), while the other, used a long period- two paddock-rotation with no fertiliser and paspalum pastures. The rainforests were generally small isolated enclaves with a well developed shrub layer (1-3 m), and a presence of scattered, deciduous trees. Simulations were carried out on sites which were

  20. Modelling interplanetary CMEs using magnetohydrodynamic simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. J. Cargill

    Full Text Available The dynamics of Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections (ICMEs are discussed from the viewpoint of numerical modelling. Hydrodynamic models are shown to give a good zero-order picture of the plasma properties of ICMEs, but they cannot model the important magnetic field effects. Results from MHD simulations are shown for a number of cases of interest. It is demonstrated that the strong interaction of the ICME with the solar wind leads to the ICME and solar wind velocities being close to each other at 1 AU, despite their having very different speeds near the Sun. It is also pointed out that this interaction leads to a distortion of the ICME geometry, making cylindrical symmetry a dubious assumption for the CME field at 1 AU. In the presence of a significant solar wind magnetic field, the magnetic fields of the ICME and solar wind can reconnect with each other, leading to an ICME that has solar wind-like field lines. This effect is especially important when an ICME with the right sense of rotation propagates down the heliospheric current sheet. It is also noted that a lack of knowledge of the coronal magnetic field makes such simulations of little use in space weather forecasts that require knowledge of the ICME magnetic field strength.

    Key words. Interplanetary physics (interplanetary magnetic fields Solar physics, astrophysics, and astronomy (flares and mass ejections Space plasma physics (numerical simulation studies

  1. Interactive Modelling and Simulation of Human Motion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Engell-Nørregård, Morten Pol

    menneskers led, der udviser både ikke-konveksitet og flere frihedsgrader • En generel og alsidig model for aktivering af bløde legemer. Modellen kan anvendes som et animations værktøj, men er lige så velegnet til simulering af menneskelige muskler, da den opfylder de grundlæggende fysiske principper......Dansk resumé Denne ph.d.-afhandling beskæftiger sig med modellering og simulation af menneskelig bevægelse. Emnerne i denne afhandling har mindst to ting til fælles. For det første beskæftiger de sig med menneskelig bevægelse. Selv om de udviklede modeller også kan benyttes til andre ting,er det...... primære fokus på at modellere den menneskelige krop. For det andet, beskæftiger de sig alle med simulering som et redskab til at syntetisere bevægelse og dermed skabe animationer. Dette er en vigtigt pointe, da det betyder, at vi ikke kun skaber værktøjer til animatorer, som de kan bruge til at lave sjove...

  2. MODELING AND SIMULATION OF A HYDROCRACKING UNIT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    HASSAN A. FARAG

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Hydrocracking is used in the petroleum industry to convert low quality feed stocks into high valued transportation fuels such as gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel. The aim of the present work is to develop a rigorous steady state two-dimensional mathematical model which includes conservation equations of mass and energy for simulating the operation of a hydrocracking unit. Both the catalyst bed and quench zone have been included in this integrated model. The model equations were numerically solved in both axial and radial directions using Matlab software. The presented model was tested against a real plant data in Egypt. The results indicated that a very good agreement between the model predictions and industrial values have been reported for temperature profiles, concentration profiles, and conversion in both radial and axial directions at the hydrocracking unit. Simulation of the quench zone conversion and temperature profiles in the quench zone was also included and gave a low deviation from the actual ones. In concentration profiles, the percentage deviation in the first reactor was found to be 9.28 % and 9.6% for the second reactor. The effect of several parameters such as: Pellet Heat Transfer Coefficient, Effective Radial Thermal Conductivity, Wall Heat Transfer Coefficient, Effective Radial Diffusivity, and Cooling medium (quench zone has been included in this study. The variation of Wall Heat Transfer Coefficient, Effective Radial Diffusivity for the near-wall region, gave no remarkable changes in the temperature profiles. On the other hand, even small variations of Effective Radial Thermal Conductivity, affected the simulated temperature profiles significantly, and this effect could not be compensated by the variations of the other parameters of the model.

  3. On Improving 4-km Mesoscale Model Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Aijun; Stauffer, David R.

    2006-03-01

    A previous study showed that use of analysis-nudging four-dimensional data assimilation (FDDA) and improved physics in the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5) produced the best overall performance on a 12-km-domain simulation, based on the 18 19 September 1983 Cross-Appalachian Tracer Experiment (CAPTEX) case. However, reducing the simulated grid length to 4 km had detrimental effects. The primary cause was likely the explicit representation of convection accompanying a cold-frontal system. Because no convective parameterization scheme (CPS) was used, the convective updrafts were forced on coarser-than-realistic scales, and the rainfall and the atmospheric response to the convection were too strong. The evaporative cooling and downdrafts were too vigorous, causing widespread disruption of the low-level winds and spurious advection of the simulated tracer. In this study, a series of experiments was designed to address this general problem involving 4-km model precipitation and gridpoint storms and associated model sensitivities to the use of FDDA, planetary boundary layer (PBL) turbulence physics, grid-explicit microphysics, a CPS, and enhanced horizontal diffusion. Some of the conclusions include the following: 1) Enhanced parameterized vertical mixing in the turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) turbulence scheme has shown marked improvements in the simulated fields. 2) Use of a CPS on the 4-km grid improved the precipitation and low-level wind results. 3) Use of the Hong and Pan Medium-Range Forecast PBL scheme showed larger model errors within the PBL and a clear tendency to predict much deeper PBL heights than the TKE scheme. 4) Combining observation-nudging FDDA with a CPS produced the best overall simulations. 5) Finer horizontal resolution does not always produce better simulations, especially in convectively unstable environments, and a new CPS suitable for 4-km resolution is needed. 6

  4. Tropical Rainforests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nigh, Ronald B.; Nations, James D.

    1980-01-01

    Presented is a summary of scientific knowledge about the rainforest environment, a tropical ecosystem in danger of extermination. Topics include the current state of tropical rainforests, the causes of rainforest destruction, and alternatives of rainforest destruction. (BT)

  5. Reactive transport models and simulation with ALLIANCES

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leterrier, N.; Deville, E.; Bary, B.; Trotignon, L.; Hedde, T.; Cochepin, B.; Stora, E.

    2009-01-01

    Many chemical processes influence the evolution of nuclear waste storage. As a result, simulations based only upon transport and hydraulic processes fail to describe adequately some industrial scenarios. We need to take into account complex chemical models (mass action laws, kinetics...) which are highly non-linear. In order to simulate the coupling of these chemical reactions with transport, we use a classical Sequential Iterative Approach (SIA), with a fixed point algorithm, within the mainframe of the ALLIANCES platform. This approach allows us to use the various transport and chemical modules available in ALLIANCES, via an operator-splitting method based upon the structure of the chemical system. We present five different applications of reactive transport simulations in the context of nuclear waste storage: 1. A 2D simulation of the lixiviation by rain water of an underground polluted zone high in uranium oxide; 2. The degradation of the steel envelope of a package in contact with clay. Corrosion of the steel creates corrosion products and the altered package becomes a porous medium. We follow the degradation front through kinetic reactions and the coupling with transport; 3. The degradation of a cement-based material by the injection of an aqueous solution of zinc and sulphate ions. In addition to the reactive transport coupling, we take into account in this case the hydraulic retroaction of the porosity variation on the Darcy velocity; 4. The decalcification of a concrete beam in an underground storage structure. In this case, in addition to the reactive transport simulation, we take into account the interaction between chemical degradation and the mechanical forces (cracks...), and the retroactive influence on the structure changes on transport; 5. The degradation of the steel envelope of a package in contact with a clay material under a temperature gradient. In this case the reactive transport simulation is entirely directed by the temperature changes and

  6. Computer Models Simulate Fine Particle Dispersion

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    Through a NASA Seed Fund partnership with DEM Solutions Inc., of Lebanon, New Hampshire, scientists at Kennedy Space Center refined existing software to study the electrostatic phenomena of granular and bulk materials as they apply to planetary surfaces. The software, EDEM, allows users to import particles and obtain accurate representations of their shapes for modeling purposes, such as simulating bulk solids behavior, and was enhanced to be able to more accurately model fine, abrasive, cohesive particles. These new EDEM capabilities can be applied in many industries unrelated to space exploration and have been adopted by several prominent U.S. companies, including John Deere, Pfizer, and Procter & Gamble.

  7. Consolidation modelling for thermoplastic composites forming simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiong, H.; Rusanov, A.; Hamila, N.; Boisse, P.

    2016-10-01

    Pre-impregnated thermoplastic composites are widely used in the aerospace industry for their excellent mechanical properties, Thermoforming thermoplastic prepregs is a fast manufacturing process, the automotive industry has shown increasing interest in this manufacturing processes, in which the reconsolidation is an essential stage. The model of intimate contact is investigated as the consolidation model, compression experiments have been launched to identify the material parameters, several numerical tests show the influents of the temperature and pressure applied during processing. Finally, a new solid-shell prismatic element has been presented for the simulation of consolidation step in the thermoplastic composites forming process.

  8. Quantification of uncertainties of modeling and simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ma Zhibo; Yin Jianwei

    2012-01-01

    The principles of Modeling and Simulation (M and S) is interpreted by a functional relation, from which the total uncertainties of M and S are identified and sorted to three parts considered to vary along with the conceptual models' parameters. According to the idea of verification and validation, the space of the parameters is parted to verified and applied domains, uncertainties in the verified domain are quantified by comparison between numerical and standard results, and those in the applied domain are quantified by a newly developed extrapolating method. Examples are presented to demonstrate and qualify the ideas aimed to build a framework to quantify the uncertainties of M and S. (authors)

  9. Simulation models generator. Applications in scheduling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Omar Danilo Castrillón

    2013-08-01

    Rev.Mate.Teor.Aplic. (ISSN 1409-2433 Vol. 20(2: 231–241, July 2013 generador de modelos de simulacion 233 will, in order to have an approach to reality to evaluate decisions in order to take more assertive. To test prototype was used as the modeling example of a production system with 9 machines and 5 works as a job shop configuration, testing stops processing times and stochastic machine to measure rates of use of machines and time average jobs in the system, as measures of system performance. This test shows the goodness of the prototype, to save the user the simulation model building

  10. Modeling and simulation of reactive flows

    CERN Document Server

    Bortoli, De AL; Pereira, Felipe

    2015-01-01

    Modelling and Simulation of Reactive Flows presents information on modeling and how to numerically solve reactive flows. The book offers a distinctive approach that combines diffusion flames and geochemical flow problems, providing users with a comprehensive resource that bridges the gap for scientists, engineers, and the industry. Specifically, the book looks at the basic concepts related to reaction rates, chemical kinetics, and the development of reduced kinetic mechanisms. It considers the most common methods used in practical situations, along with equations for reactive flows, and va

  11. Nonlinear friction model for servo press simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Ninshu; Sugitomo, Nobuhiko; Kyuno, Takunori; Tamura, Shintaro; Naka, Tetsuo

    2013-12-01

    The friction coefficient was measured under an idealized condition for a pulse servo motion. The measured friction coefficient and its changing with both sliding distance and a pulse motion showed that the friction resistance can be reduced due to the re-lubrication during unloading process of the pulse servo motion. Based on the measured friction coefficient and its changes with sliding distance and re-lubrication of oil, a nonlinear friction model was developed. Using the newly developed the nonlinear friction model, a deep draw simulation was performed and the formability was evaluated. The results were compared with experimental ones and the effectiveness was verified.

  12. VAR IPP-IPC Model Simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan P. Pérez Monsalve

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available This work analyzed the relationship of the two main Price indicators in the Colombian economy, the IPP and the IPC. For this purpose, we identified the theory comprising both indexes to then develop a vector autoregressive model, which shows the reaction to shocks both in itself as in the other variable, whose impact continues propagating in the long term. Additionally, the work presents a simulation of the VAR model through the Monte Carlo method, verifying the coincidence in distributions of probability and volatility levels, as well as the existence correlation over time

  13. A model for the identification of tropical weather systems over South ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    drinie

    2002-07-03

    Jul 3, 2002 ... with, these two high-pressure systems, controls to a large extent, the weather of ... researchers provided general rules to differentiate between tropical- ..... inclusion of this graph therefore does not serve as a verification of.

  14. TMS modeling toolbox for realistic simulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cho, Young Sun; Suh, Hyun Sang; Lee, Won Hee; Kim, Tae-Seong

    2010-01-01

    Transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) is a technique for brain stimulation using rapidly changing magnetic fields generated by coils. It has been established as an effective stimulation technique to treat patients suffering from damaged brain functions. Although TMS is known to be painless and noninvasive, it can also be harmful to the brain by incorrect focusing and excessive stimulation which might result in seizure. Therefore there is ongoing research effort to elucidate and better understand the effect and mechanism of TMS. Lately Boundary element method (BEM) and Finite element method (FEM) have been used to simulate the electromagnetic phenomenon of TMS. However, there is a lack of general tools to generate the models of TMS due to some difficulties in realistic modeling of the human head and TMS coils. In this study, we have developed a toolbox through which one can generate high-resolution FE TMS models. The toolbox allows creating FE models of the head with isotropic and anisotropic electrical conductivities in five different tissues of the head and the coils in 3D. The generated TMS model is importable to FE software packages such as ANSYS for further and efficient electromagnetic analysis. We present a set of demonstrative results of realistic simulation of TMS with our toolbox.

  15. Initiation Processes of the Tropical Intraseasonal Variability Simulated in an Aqua-Planet Experiment: What is the Intrinsic Mechanism for MJO Onset?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takasuka, Daisuke; Satoh, Masaki; Miyakawa, Tomoki; Miura, Hiroaki

    2018-04-01

    To understand the intrinsic onset mechanism of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), we simulated a set of initiation processes of MJO-like disturbances in 10 year aqua-planet experiments using a global atmospheric model with a 56 km horizontal mesh and an explicit cloud scheme. Under a condition with a zonally nonuniform sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropics, we reproduced MJO-like disturbances over the western warm pool region. The lagged-composite analysis of detected MJO-like disturbances clarifies the time sequence of three-dimensional dynamic and moisture fields prior to the onset. We found that midtropospheric moistening, a condition that is favorable for deep convection, is particularly obvious in the initiation region 5-9 days before onset. The moistening is caused by two-dimensional horizontal advection due to cross-equatorial shallow circulations associated with mixed Rossby-gravity waves, as well as anomalous poleward flows of a negative Rossby response to suppressed convection. When the midtroposphere is sufficiently moistened, lower tropospheric signals of circumnavigating Kelvin waves trigger active convection. The surface latent heat flux (LHF) feedback contributes to the initial stages of convective organization, while the cloud-radiation feedback contributes to later stages. Sensitivity experiments suggest that circumnavigating Kelvin waves regulate the period of MJO-like disturbances because of efficient convective triggering and that the LHF feedback contributes to rapid convective organization. However, the experiments also reveal that both conditions are not necessary for the existence of MJO-like disturbances. Implications for the relevance of these mechanisms for MJO onset are also discussed.

  16. On the use of nudging techniques for regional climate modeling: application for tropical convection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pohl, Benjamin; Crétat, Julien

    2014-09-01

    Using a large set of WRF ensemble simulations at 70-km horizontal resolution over a domain encompassing the Warm Pool region and its surroundings [45°N-45°S, 10°E-240°E], this study aims at quantifying how nudging techniques can modify the simulation of deep atmospheric convection. Both seasonal mean climate, transient variability at intraseasonal timescales, and the respective weight of internal (stochastic) and forced (reproducible) variability are considered. Sensitivity to a large variety of nudging settings (nudged variables and layers and nudging strength) and to the model physics (using 3 convective parameterizations) is addressed. Integrations are carried out during a 7-month season characterized by neutral background conditions and strong intraseasonal variability. Results show that (1) the model responds differently to the nudging from one parameterization to another. Biases are decreased by ~50 % for Betts-Miller-Janjic convection against 17 % only for Grell-Dévényi, the scheme producing yet the largest biases; (2) relaxing air temperature is the most efficient way to reduce biases, while nudging the wind increases most co-variability with daily observations; (3) the model's internal variability is drastically reduced and mostly depends on the nudging strength and nudged variables; (4) interrupting the relaxation before the end of the simulations leads to an abrupt convergence towards the model's natural solution, with no clear effects on the simulated climate after a few days. The usefulness and limitations of the approach are finally discussed through the example of the Madden-Julian Oscillation, that the model fails at simulating and that can be artificially and still imperfectly reproduced in relaxation experiments.

  17. Interannual Rainfall Variability in North-East Brazil: Observation and Model Simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harzallah, A.; Rocha de Aragão, J. O.; Sadourny, R.

    1996-08-01

    The relationship between interannual variability of rainfall in north-east Brazil and tropical sea-surface temperature is studied using observations and model simulations. The simulated precipitation is the average of seven independent realizations performed using the Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique atmospheric general model forced by the 1970-1988 observed sea-surface temperature. The model reproduces very well the rainfall anomalies (correlation of 091 between observed and modelled anomalies). The study confirms that precipitation in north-east Brazil is highly correlated to the sea-surface temperature in the tropical Atlantic and Pacific oceans. Using the singular value decomposition method, we find that Nordeste rainfall is modulated by two independent oscillations, both governed by the Atlantic dipole, but one involving only the Pacific, the other one having a period of about 10 years. Correlations between precipitation in north-east Brazil during February-May and the sea-surface temperature 6 months earlier indicate that both modes are essential to estimate the quality of the rainy season.

  18. Biomedical Simulation Models of Human Auditory Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bicak, Mehmet M. A.

    2012-01-01

    Detailed acoustic engineering models that explore noise propagation mechanisms associated with noise attenuation and transmission paths created when using hearing protectors such as earplugs and headsets in high noise environments. Biomedical finite element (FE) models are developed based on volume Computed Tomography scan data which provides explicit external ear, ear canal, middle ear ossicular bones and cochlea geometry. Results from these studies have enabled a greater understanding of hearing protector to flesh dynamics as well as prioritizing noise propagation mechanisms. Prioritization of noise mechanisms can form an essential framework for exploration of new design principles and methods in both earplug and earcup applications. These models are currently being used in development of a novel hearing protection evaluation system that can provide experimentally correlated psychoacoustic noise attenuation. Moreover, these FE models can be used to simulate the effects of blast related impulse noise on human auditory mechanisms and brain tissue.

  19. Model-data fusion across ecosystems: from multisite optimizations to global simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuppel, S.; Peylin, P.; Maignan, F.; Chevallier, F.; Kiely, G.; Montagnani, L.; Cescatti, A.

    2014-11-01

    This study uses a variational data assimilation framework to simultaneously constrain a global ecosystem model with eddy covariance measurements of daily net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and latent heat (LE) fluxes from a large number of sites grouped in seven plant functional types (PFTs). It is an attempt to bridge the gap between the numerous site-specific parameter optimization works found in the literature and the generic parameterization used by most land surface models within each PFT. The present multisite approach allows deriving PFT-generic sets of optimized parameters enhancing the agreement between measured and simulated fluxes at most of the sites considered, with performances often comparable to those of the corresponding site-specific optimizations. Besides reducing the PFT-averaged model-data root-mean-square difference (RMSD) and the associated daily output uncertainty, the optimization improves the simulated CO2 balance at tropical and temperate forests sites. The major site-level NEE adjustments at the seasonal scale are reduced amplitude in C3 grasslands and boreal forests, increased seasonality in temperate evergreen forests, and better model-data phasing in temperate deciduous broadleaf forests. Conversely, the poorer performances in tropical evergreen broadleaf forests points to deficiencies regarding the modelling of phenology and soil water stress for this PFT. An evaluation with data-oriented estimates of photosynthesis (GPP - gross primary productivity) and ecosystem respiration (Reco) rates indicates distinctively improved simulations of both gross fluxes. The multisite parameter sets are then tested against CO2 concentrations measured at 53 locations around the globe, showing significant adjustments of the modelled seasonality of atmospheric CO2 concentration, whose relevance seems PFT-dependent, along with an improved interannual variability. Lastly, a global-scale evaluation with remote sensing NDVI (normalized difference vegetation index

  20. Modeling and simulation of gamma camera

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Singh, B.; Kataria, S.K.; Samuel, A.M.

    2002-08-01

    Simulation techniques play a vital role in designing of sophisticated instruments and also for the training of operating and maintenance staff. Gamma camera systems have been used for functional imaging in nuclear medicine. Functional images are derived from the external counting of the gamma emitting radioactive tracer that after introduction in to the body mimics the behavior of native biochemical compound. The position sensitive detector yield the coordinates of the gamma ray interaction with the detector and are used to estimate the point of gamma ray emission within the tracer distribution space. This advanced imaging device is thus dependent on the performance of algorithm for coordinate computing, estimation of point of emission, generation of image and display of the image data. Contemporary systems also have protocols for quality control and clinical evaluation of imaging studies. Simulation of this processing leads to understanding of the basic camera design problems. This report describes a PC based package for design and simulation of gamma camera along with the options of simulating data acquisition and quality control of imaging studies. Image display and data processing the other options implemented in SIMCAM will be described in separate reports (under preparation). Gamma camera modeling and simulation in SIMCAM has preset configuration of the design parameters for various sizes of crystal detector with the option to pack the PMT on hexagon or square lattice. Different algorithm for computation of coordinates and spatial distortion removal are allowed in addition to the simulation of energy correction circuit. The user can simulate different static, dynamic, MUGA and SPECT studies. The acquired/ simulated data is processed for quality control and clinical evaluation of the imaging studies. Results show that the program can be used to assess these performances. Also the variations in performance parameters can be assessed due to the induced

  1. Failure of CMIP5 climate models in simulating post-1950 decreasing trend of Indian monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saha, Anamitra; Ghosh, Subimal; Sahana, A. S.; Rao, E. P.

    2014-10-01

    Impacts of climate change on Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) and the growing population pose a major threat to water and food security in India. Adapting to such changes needs reliable projections of ISMR by general circulation models. Here we find that, majority of new generation climate models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase5 (CMIP5) fail to simulate the post-1950 decreasing trend of ISMR. The weakening of monsoon is associated with the warming of Southern Indian Ocean and strengthening of cyclonic formation in the tropical western Pacific Ocean. We also find that these large-scale changes are not captured by CMIP5 models, with few exceptions, which is the reason of this failure. Proper representation of these highlighted geophysical processes in next generation models may improve the reliability of ISMR projections. Our results also alert the water resource planners to evaluate the CMIP5 models before using them for adaptation strategies.

  2. Simulating the Pineapple Express in the half degree Community Climate System Model, CCSM4

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shields, Christine A.; Kiehl, Jeffrey T.

    2016-07-01

    Atmospheric rivers are recognized as major contributors to the poleward transport of water vapor. Upon reaching land, these phenomena also play a critical role in extreme precipitation and flooding events. The Pineapple Express (PE) is defined as an atmospheric river extending out of the deep tropics and reaching the west coast of North America. Community Climate System Model (CCSM4) high-resolution ensemble simulations for the twentieth and 21st centuries are diagnosed to identify the PE. Analysis of the twentieth century simulations indicated that the CCSM4 accurately captures the spatial and temporal climatology of the PE. Analysis of the end 21st century simulations indicates a significant increase in storm duration and intensity of precipitation associated with landfall of the PE. Only a modest increase in the number of atmospheric rivers of a few percent is projected for the end of 21st century.

  3. Rethinking plant functional types in Earth System Models: pan-tropical analysis of tree survival across environmental gradients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, D. J.; Needham, J.; Xu, C.; Davies, S. J.; Bunyavejchewin, S.; Giardina, C. P.; Condit, R.; Cordell, S.; Litton, C. M.; Hubbell, S.; Kassim, A. R. B.; Shawn, L. K. Y.; Nasardin, M. B.; Ong, P.; Ostertag, R.; Sack, L.; Tan, S. K. S.; Yap, S.; McDowell, N. G.; McMahon, S.

    2016-12-01

    Terrestrial carbon cycling is a function of the growth and survival of trees. Current model representations of tree growth and survival at a global scale rely on coarse plant functional traits that are parameterized very generally. In view of the large biodiversity in the tropical forests, it is important that we account for the functional diversity in order to better predict tropical forest responses to future climate changes. Several next generation Earth System Models are moving towards a size-structured, trait-based approach to modelling vegetation globally, but the challenge of which and how many traits are necessary to capture forest complexity remains. Additionally, the challenge of collecting sufficient trait data to describe the vast species richness of tropical forest