WorldWideScience

Sample records for model simulated tropical

  1. Polarized microwave forward model simulations for tropical storm Fanoos

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    C Balaji; M Deiveegan; S P Venkateshan; R M Gairola; A Sarkar; V K Agarwal

    2009-08-01

    In the present study, forward radiative transfer simulations are carried out for the tropical cyclone Fanoos that hit the coast off south India in December 2005. The in-house radiative transfer package used for this study employs the doubling and adding method to calculate radiances leaving the top of the one dimensional precipitating atmosphere. The particle drop size distribution is assumed to follow a modified gamma distribution in respect of the cloud liquid water and cloud ice water content. For precipitation, the Marshall–Palmer particle size distribution is used. All the hydrometeor particles are assumed to be spherical and Lorentz Mie theory is used to evaluate the interaction parameters like absorption, scattering coefficients and polarized scattering matrix. In order to validate the drop size distributions and interaction parameter calculations, the simulated brightness temperatures are compared with the TMI measured brightness temperatures for all the channels. For carrying out this exercise, vertical hydrometeors retrieved by TMI are used as input. The differences between simulated and measured brightness temperatures are found to be within ± 10%. The maximum difference in the brightness temperatures between the present work and the Eddington model which the TRMM algorithm employs is about 4.5K. This may become significant when retrieval of precipitation is attempted by combining the forward model with a suitable retrieval strategy, under tropical conditions.

  2. Understanding the tropical warm temperature bias simulated by climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brient, Florent; Schneider, Tapio

    2017-04-01

    The state-of-the-art coupled general circulation models have difficulties in representing the observed spatial pattern of surface tempertaure. A majority of them suffers a warm bias in the tropical subsiding regions located over the eastern parts of oceans. These regions are usually covered by low-level clouds scattered from stratus along the coasts to more vertically developed shallow cumulus farther from them. Models usually fail to represent accurately this transition. Here we investigate physical drivers of this warm bias in CMIP5 models through a near-surface energy budget perspective. We show that overestimated solar insolation due to a lack of stratocumulus mostly explains the warm bias. This bias also arises partly from inter-model differences in surface fluxes that could be traced to differences in near-surface relative humidity and air-sea temperature gradient. We investigate the role of the atmosphere in driving surface biases by comparing historical and atmopsheric (AMIP) experiments. We show that some differences in boundary-layer characteristics, mostly those related to cloud fraction and relative humidity, are already present in AMIP experiments and may be the drivers of coupled biases. This gives insights in how models can be improved for better simulations of the tropical climate.

  3. The effects of tree species grouping in tropical rain forest modelling - simulations with the individual based model FORMIND

    OpenAIRE

    Köhler, Peter; Huth, A.

    1998-01-01

    Due to high biodiversity in tropical rainforests, tree species are aggregatedinto functional groups for modelling purposes. In this article the influencesof two different classifications of tropical tree species into functionalgroups on the output of a rainforest model are analysed. The FORMIND modelis documented. FORMIND simulates the tree growth of tropical rainforests.The model is individual-based and developed from the FORMIX3 model. In themodel, trees compete for light and space in plots...

  4. Towards Direct Simulation of Future Tropical Cyclone Statistics in a High-Resolution Global Atmospheric Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael F. Wehner

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available We present a set of high-resolution global atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM simulations focusing on the model's ability to represent tropical storms and their statistics. We find that the model produces storms of hurricane strength with realistic dynamical features. We also find that tropical storm statistics are reasonable, both globally and in the north Atlantic, when compared to recent observations. The sensitivity of simulated tropical storm statistics to increases in sea surface temperature (SST is also investigated, revealing that a credible late 21st century SST increase produced increases in simulated tropical storm numbers and intensities in all ocean basins. While this paper supports previous high-resolution model and theoretical findings that the frequency of very intense storms will increase in a warmer climate, it differs notably from previous medium and high-resolution model studies that show a global reduction in total tropical storm frequency. However, we are quick to point out that this particular model finding remains speculative due to a lack of radiative forcing changes in our time-slice experiments as well as a focus on the Northern hemisphere tropical storm seasons.

  5. Numerical simulation of tropical-temperate troughs over Southern Africa using the CSU RAMS model

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Van den Heever, SC

    1997-08-01

    Full Text Available ) and the wet (1981) late summer case studies has been examined. Model simulations reveal that the tropical-temperate troughs form when an upper westerly wave coincides with an easterly, wave or depression in lower levels. These systems occur preferentially over...

  6. Uncertainty and feasibility of dynamical downscaling for modeling tropical cyclones for storm surge simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yang, Zhaoqing; Taraphdar, Sourav; Wang, Taiping; Ruby Leung, L.; Grear, Molly

    2016-08-22

    This paper presents a modeling study conducted to evaluate the uncertainty of a regional model in simulating hurricane wind and pressure fields, and the feasibility of driving coastal storm surge simulation using an ensemble of region model outputs produced by 18 combinations of three convection schemes and six microphysics parameterizations, using Hurricane Katrina as a test case. Simulated wind and pressure fields were compared to observed H*Wind data for Hurricane Katrina and simulated storm surge was compared to observed high-water marks on the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico. The ensemble modeling analysis demonstrated that the regional model was able to reproduce the characteristics of Hurricane Katrina with reasonable accuracy and can be used to drive the coastal ocean model for simulating coastal storm surge. Results indicated that the regional model is sensitive to both convection and microphysics parameterizations that simulate moist processes closely linked to the tropical cyclone dynamics that influence hurricane development and intensification. The Zhang and McFarlane (ZM) convection scheme and the Lim and Hong (WDM6) microphysics parameterization are the most skillful in simulating Hurricane Katrina maximum wind speed and central pressure, among the three convection and the six microphysics parameterizations. Error statistics of simulated maximum water levels were calculated for a baseline simulation with H*Wind forcing and the 18 ensemble simulations driven by the regional model outputs. The storm surge model produced the overall best results in simulating the maximum water levels using wind and pressure fields generated with the ZM convection scheme and the WDM6 microphysics parameterization.

  7. How Well Do Global Climate Models Simulate the Variability of Atlantic Tropical Cyclones Associated with ENSO?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Hui; Long, Lindsey; Kumar, Arun; Wang, Wanqiu; Schemm, Jae-Kyung E.; Zhao, Ming; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; LaRow, Timorhy E.; Lim, Young-Kwon; Schubert, Siegfried D.; hide

    2013-01-01

    The variability of Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) associated with El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in model simulations is assessed and compared with observations. The model experiments are 28-yr simulations forced with the observed sea surface temperature from 1982 to 2009. The simulations were coordinated by the U.S. CLIVAR Hurricane Working Group and conducted with five global climate models (GCMs) with a total of 16 ensemble members. The model performance is evaluated based on both individual model ensemble means and multi-model ensemble mean. The latter has the highest anomaly correlation (0.86) for the interannual variability of TCs. Previous observational studies show a strong association between ENSO and Atlantic TC activity, as well as distinctions in the TC activities during eastern Pacific (EP) and central Pacific (CP) El Nino events. The analysis of track density and TC origin indicates that each model has different mean biases. Overall, the GCMs simulate the variability of Atlantic TCs well with weaker activity during EP El Nino and stronger activity during La Nina. For CP El Nino, there is a slight increase in the number of TCs as compared with EP El Nino. However, the spatial distribution of track density and TC origin is less consistent among the models. Particularly, there is no indication of increasing TC activity over the U.S. southeast coastal region as in observations. The difference between the models and observations is likely due to the bias of vertical wind shear in response to the shift of tropical heating associated with CP El Nino, as well as the model bias in the mean circulation.

  8. Improved simulation of precipitation in the tropics using a modified BMJ scheme in WRF model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Fonseca

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available The successful modelling of the observed precipitation, a very important variable for a wide range of climate applications, continues to be one of the major challenges that climate scientists face today. When the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF model is used to dynamically downscale the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR over the Indo-Pacific region, with analysis (grid-point nudging, it is found that the cumulus scheme used, Betts–Miller–Janjić (BMJ, produces excessive rainfall suggesting that it has to be modified for this region. Experimentation has shown that the cumulus precipitation is not very sensitive to changes in the cloud efficiency but varies greatly in response to modifications of the temperature and humidity reference profiles. A new version of the scheme, denominated "modified BMJ" scheme, where the humidity reference profile is more moist, was developed and in tropical belt simulations it was found to give a better estimate of the observed precipitation, as given by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM 3B42 dataset, than the default BMJ scheme for the whole tropics and both monsoon seasons. In fact, in some regions the model even outperforms CFSR. The advantage of modifying the BMJ scheme to produce better rainfall estimates lies in the final dynamical consistency of the rainfall with other dynamical and thermodynamical variables of the atmosphere.

  9. Impact of the observed extratropics on climatological simulations of the MJO in a tropical channel model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, Nicholas M. J.; Thibaut, Séverin; Marchesiello, Patrick

    2016-06-01

    A regional model is used to quantify the influence of the extratropics on simulated tropical intraseasonal variability. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is run in tropical channel mode with the boundaries at 30° N and S constrained to 6-hourly reanalysis data. Experiments with modified boundary conditions are carried out in which intraseasonal (20-100 days) timescales are removed, or in which only the annual and diurnal cycles are retained. Twin runs are used to give an objective measure of the boundary-independant component of the variance in each case. The model captures MJO-like propagating structures and shows greater zonal-wind variance in runs with full boundary conditions. Comparison between experiments indicates that about half the intraseasonal variance can be attributed to boundary influence, and specifically to the presence of an intraseasonal extratropical signal. This signal is associated with stronger correlations between low-level zonal wind precursors in the Pacific sector and Indian Ocean convective events. Temporal coherence between MJO events in the model and the observations is analysed by defining four phases based on convectively coupled signals in the low-level zonal wind. The model can only match observed events above the level of chance when intraseasonal boundary information is provided. Results are analysed in terms of `primary' and `successive' events. Although the model hindcast skill is generally poor, it is better for successive events.

  10. Comparison of Explicitly Simulated and Downscaled Tropical Cyclone Activity in a High-Resolution Global Climate Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hirofumi Tomita

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The response of tropical cyclone activity to climate change is a matter of great inherent interest and practical importance. Most current global climate models are not, however, capable of adequately resolving tropical cyclones; this has led to the development of downscaling techniques designed to infer tropical cyclone activity from the large-scale fields produced by climate models. Here we compare the statistics of tropical cyclones simulated explicitly in a very high resolution (~14 km grid mesh global climate model to the results of one such downscaling technique driven by the same global model. This is done for a simulation of the current climate and also for a simulation of a climate warmed by the addition of carbon dioxide. The explicitly simulated and downscaled storms are similarly distributed in space, but the intensity distribution of the downscaled events has a somewhat longer high-intensity tail, owing to the higher resolution of the downscaling model. Both explicitly simulated and downscaled events show large increases in the frequency of events at the high-intensity ends of their respective intensity distributions, but the downscaled storms also show increases in low-intensity events, whereas the explicitly simulated weaker events decline in number. On the regional scale, there are large differences in the responses of the explicitly simulated and downscaled events to global warming. In particular, the power dissipation of downscaled events shows a 175% increase in the Atlantic, while the power dissipation of explicitly simulated events declines there.

  11. Significant Features Found in Simulated Tropical Climates Using a Cloud Resolving Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shie, C.-L.; Tao, W.-K.; Simpson, J.; Sui, C.-H.

    2000-01-01

    Cloud resolving model (CRM) has widely been used in recent years for simulations involving studies of radiative-convective systems and their role in determining the tropical regional climate. The growing popularity of CRMs usage can be credited for their inclusion of crucial and realistic features such like explicit cloud-scale dynamics, sophisticated microphysical processes, and explicit radiative-convective interaction. For example, by using a two-dimensional cloud model with radiative-convective interaction process, found a QBO-like (quasibiennial oscillation) oscillation of mean zonal wind that affected the convective system. Accordingly, the model-generated rain band corresponding to convective activity propagated in the direction of the low-level zonal mean winds; however, the precipitation became "localized" (limited within a small portion of the domain) as zonal mean winds were removed. Two other CRM simulations by S94 and Grabowski et al. (1996, hereafter G96), respectively that produced distinctive quasi-equilibrium ("climate") states on both tropical water and energy, i.e., a cold/dry state in S94 and a warm/wet state in G96, have later been investigated by T99. They found that the pattern of the imposed large-scale horizontal wind and the magnitude of the imposed surface fluxes were the two crucial mechanisms in determining the tropical climate states. The warm/wet climate was found associated with prescribed strong surface winds, or with maintained strong vertical wind shears that well-organized convective systems prevailed. On the other hand, the cold/dry climate was produced due to imposed weak surface winds and weak wind shears throughout a vertically mixing process by convection. In this study, considered as a sequel of T99, the model simulations to be presented are generally similar to those of T99 (where a detailed model setup can be found), except for a more detailed discussion along with few more simulated experiments. There are twelve major

  12. Simulation of Tropical Cyclones over Bay of Bengal with NCMRWF Regional Unified Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Routray, A.; Singh, Vivek; George, John P.; Mohandas, Saji; Rajagopal, E. N.

    2016-12-01

    This study delineates the relative performance of the 12-km resolution NCMRWF regional Unified Model (NCUM-R) over the operational global NCUM (NCUM-G) model. Forecasts of four Bay of Bengal (BoB) landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) using several different initial conditions (ICs) are used to compare the performance of two models. The position and intensity errors of the TCs are estimated with respect to the India Meteorological Department (IMD) and Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) best-track datasets and an inter-comparison study is also carried out between IMD and JTWC. The overall results suggest that the NCUM-R simulates the position and intensity of TCs more accurately compared to the NCUM-G. A majority of the TC tracks in the NCUM-G diverge more from the IMD track when compared to NCUM-R simulated tracks. It is also clearly noticed that both the models are more skillful in track prediction when initialized at intensity stages greater than "cyclone" category. However, the mean position errors at different forecast hours and landfall errors of TCs are reduced by approximately 31 and 47% in the NCUM-R simulations compared to NCUM-G simulations, respectively. The mean gain in skill of the NCUM-R in cross track (CT) and along track (AT) error is around 29 and 24% over NCUM-G, respectively. The intensity errors are less in the NCUM-R simulations. The mean rainfall skill scores are considerably improved in the NCUM-R simulations in day-1 and day-2 as compared to the NCUM-G simulations. It is noticed that the mean position errors of the TCs are approximately 8% lower when compared against the JTWC tracks than the IMD tracks. However, the intensity errors are higher against the JTWC than that of IMD most likely due to the averaging period of the wind speed.

  13. Simulating Tropical Instability Waves in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific with a Coupled General Circulation Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    CHEN Xianyan; Masahide KIMOTO

    2009-01-01

    Satellite observations of SSTs have revealed the existence of unstable waves in the equatorial eastern Pacific and Atlantic oceans. These waves have a 20-40-day periodicity with westward phase speeds of 0.4-0.6 m s-1 and wavelengths of 1000-2000 km during boreal summer and fall.They are generally called tropical instability waves (TIWs).This study investigates TIWs simulated by a high-resolution coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM).The horizontal resolution of the model is 120 km in the atmosphere,and 30 km longitude by 20 km latitude in the ocean.Model simulations show good agreement with the observed main features associated with TIWs.The results of energetics analysis reveal that barotropic energy conversion is responsible for providing the main energy source for TIWs by extracting energy from the meridional shear of the climatological-mean equatorial currents in the mixed layer.This deeper and northward-extended wave activity appears to gain its energy through baroclinic conversion via buoyancy work,which further contributes to the asymmetric distribution of TIWs.It is estimated that the strong cooling effect induced by equatorial upwelling is partially (~30%-40%)offset by the equatorward heat flux due to TIWs in the eastern tropical Pacific during the seasons when TIWs are active.The atmospheric mixed layer just above the sea surface responds to the waves with enhanced or reduced vertical mixing.Furthermore,the changes in turbulent mixing feed back to sea surface evaporation,favoring the westward propagation of TIWs.The atmosphere to the south of the Equator also responds to TIWs in a similar way,although TIWs are much weaker south of the Equator.

  14. Spatial characteristics of the tropical cloud systems: comparison between model simulation and satellite observations

    OpenAIRE

    Guang J. Zhang; Zurovac-Jevtic, Dance; Erwin R Boer

    2011-01-01

    A Lagrangian cloud classification algorithm is applied to the cloud fields in the tropical Pacificsimulated by a high-resolution regional atmospheric model. The purpose of this work is toassess the model’s ability to reproduce the observed spatial characteristics of the tropical cloudsystems. The cloud systems are broadly grouped into three categories: deep clouds, mid-levelclouds and low clouds. The deep clouds are further divided into mesoscale convective systemsand non-mesoscale convective...

  15. Tropical-temperate interactions over southern Africa simulated by a regional climate model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vigaud, N.; Pohl, B.; Cretat, J. [UMR 6282 Biogeosciences CNRS/Universite de Bourgogne, Centre de Recherches de Climatologie, Dijon (France)

    2012-12-15

    The Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) forced by ERA40 re-analyses, is used to examine, at regional scale, the role of key features of the local atmospheric circulation on the origin and development of Tropical Temperate Troughs (TTTs) representing a major contribution to South African rainfall during austral summer. A cluster analysis applied on 1971-2000 ERA40 and WRF simulated daily outgoing longwave radiation reveals for the November-February season three coherent regimes characteristic of TTTs over the region. Analyses of WRF simulated TTTs suggest that their occurrence is primarily linked with mid-latitude westerly waves and their phasing. Ensemble experiments designed for the case of austral summer 1996/1997 allow to examine the reproducibility of TTT events. The results obtained illustrate the importance of westerly waves phasing regarding the persistence of rain-producing continental TTT events. Moreover, oceanic surface conditions prevailing over the Agulhas current regions of the South West Indian Ocean (SWIO) are also found to influence TTT persistence for regional experiments with an oceanic mixed layer, warmer sea surface temperatures being associated with increased moisture advection from the SWIO where latent heat release is enhanced, favoring baroclinic instability and thus sustaining convection activity locally. (orig.)

  16. A model intercomparison of the tropical precipitation response to a CO2 doubling in aquaplanet simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seo, Jeongbin; Kang, Sarah M.; Merlis, Timothy M.

    2017-01-01

    In the present-day climate, the mean Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) is north of the equator. We investigate changes in the ITCZ latitude under global warming, using multiple atmospheric models coupled to an aquaplanet slab ocean. The reference climate, with a warmer north from prescribed ocean heating, is perturbed by doubling CO2. Most models exhibit a northward ITCZ shift, but the shift cannot be accounted for by the response of energy flux equator where the atmospheric energy transport (FA) vanishes. The energetics of the simulated circulation shifts are subtle: changes in the efficiency with which the Hadley circulation transports energy, the total gross moist stability (Δm), dominate over mass flux changes in determining δFA. Even when δFA ≈ 0, the ITCZ can shift significantly due to changes in Δm, which have often been neglected previously. The dependence of ITCZ responses on δΔm calls for improved understanding of the physics determining the tropical Δm.

  17. Improving climate model simulation of tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature: The importance of enhanced vertical atmosphere model resolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harlaß, Jan; Latif, Mojib; Park, Wonsun

    2015-04-01

    A long-standing problem in climate modeling is the inaccurate simulation of tropical Atlantic (TA) sea surface temperature (SST), known as the TA SST bias. It has far-reaching consequences for climate prediction in that area as it goes along, among others, with erroneous precipitation patterns. We show that the TA SST bias can be largely reduced by increasing both the atmospheric horizontal and vertical resolutions in a climate model. At high horizontal resolution, enhanced vertical resolution is indispensable to substantially improve the simulation of TA SST by enhancing surface wind stress. This also reduces biases in the upper ocean thermal structure and precipitation patterns. Although, enhanced horizontal resolution alone leads to some improvement in the mean climate, typical bias patterns characterized by a reversed zonal SST gradient at the equator and too warm SST in the Benguela upwelling region are mostly unchanged at a coarser vertical resolution.

  18. The Distribution and Variability of Simulated Chlorophyll Concentration over the Tropical Indian Ocean from Five CMIP5 Models

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIU Lin; FENG Lin; YU Weidong; WANG Huiwu; LIU Yanliang; SUN Shuangwen

    2013-01-01

    Performances of 5 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) in simulating the chlorophyll concentration over the tropical Indian Ocean are evaluated.Results show that these models are able to capture the dominant spatial distribution of observed chlorophyll concentration and reproduce the maximum chlorophyll concentration over the western part of the Arabian Sea,around the tip of the Indian subcontinent,and in the southeast tropical Indian Ocean.The seasonal evolution of chlorophyll concentration over these regions is also reproduced with significant amplitude diversity among models.All of 5 models is able to simulate the interannual variability of chlorophyll concentration.The maximum interannual variation occurs at the same regions where the maximum climatological chlorophyll concentration is located.Further analysis also reveals that the Indian Ocean Dipole events have great impact on chlorophyll concentration in the tropical Indian Ocean.In the general successful simulation of chlorophyll concentration,most of the CMIP5 models present higher than normal chlorophyll concentration in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean.

  19. Analysing and combining atmospheric general circulation model simulations forced by prescribed SST. Northern extra tropical response

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moron, V. [Universite' de Provence, UFR des sciences geographiques et de l' amenagement, Aix-en-Provence (France); Navarra, A. [Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Bologna (Italy); Ward, M. N. [University of Oklahoma, Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies, Norman OK (United States); Foland, C. K. [Hadley Center for Climate Prediction and Research, Meteorological Office, Bracknell (United Kingdom); Friederichs, P. [Meteorologisches Institute des Universitaet Bonn, Bonn (Germany); Maynard, K.; Polcher, J. [Paris Universite' Pierre et Marie Curie, Paris (France). Centre Nationale de la Recherche Scientifique, Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique, Paris

    2001-08-01

    The ECHAM 3.2 (T21), ECHAM 4 (T30) and LMD (version 6, grid-point resolution with 96 longitudes x 72 latitudes) atmospheric general circulation models were integrated through the period 1961 to 1993 forced with the same observed Sa Surface Temperatures (SSTs) as compiled at the Hadley Centre. Three runs were made for each model starting from different initial conditions. The mid-latitude circulation pattern which maximises the covariance between the simulation and the observations, i.e. the most skilful mode, and the one which maximises the covariance amongst the runs, i.e. the most reproducible mode, is calculated as the leading mode of a Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) analysis of observed and simulated Sea Level Pressure (SLP) and geo potential height at 500 hPa (Z500) seasonal anomalies. A common response amongst the different models, having different resolution and parametrization should be considered as a more robust atmospheric response to SST than the sam response obtained with only one model A robust skilful mode is found mainly in December-February (DJF), and in June-August (JJA). In DJF, this mode is close to the SST-forced pattern found by Straus nd Shukla (2000) over the North Pacific and North America with a wavy out-of-phase between the NE Pacific and the SE US on the one hand and the NE North America on the other. This pattern evolves in a NAO-like pattern over the North Atlantic and Europe (SLP) and in a more N-S tripote on the Atlantic and European sector with an out-of-phase between the middle Europe on the one hand and the northern and southern parts on the other (Z500). There are almost no spatial shifts between either field around North America (just a slight eastward shift of the highest absolute heterogenous correlations for SLP relative to the Z500 ones). The time evolution of the SST-forced mode is moderately to strongly related to the ENSO/LNSO events but the spread amongst the ensemble of runs is not systematically related at all to

  20. Model Simulation of the Eastern Tropical South Pacific Oxygen Minimum Zone during the Holocene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneider, Birgit; Segschneider, Joachim; Xu, Xu; Park, Wonsun; Latif, Mojib

    2016-04-01

    The intensification/expansion of the tropical oxygen minimum zones (OMZs), as observed during the last decades, is usually assigned to anthropogenic climate change. However, natural variability may also affect OMZ variations. To assess the amplitude of natural (millennial-scale) variability in the oxygen minimum zone in the Eastern Tropical South Pacific (ETSP), a global coupled climate-ocean biogeochemical model has been applied to the mid-Holocene (approx. 6 kyrs BP). We find that during the mid-Holocene, the ETSP OMZ may have been better ventilated than today, which is entirely due to ocean circulation effects in the model. The enhanced ventilation is overriding the effect of increased biological production which in large parts of the equatorial Pacific, is driving oxygen towards lower values. The model result is in qualitative agreement with proxy data.

  1. Using the Variable-Resolution General Circulation Model CAM-SE to Simulate Regional Tropical Cyclone Climatology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zarzycki, C. M.; Jablonowski, C.; Taylor, M. A.

    2012-12-01

    The ability of General Circulation Models (GCMs) to resolve tropical cyclones in the climate system has traditionally been difficult due to issues such as small storm size and the existence of key thermodynamic processes requiring significant parameterization. At traditional GCM grid resolutions of 50-300 km tropical cyclones are severely under-resolved, if not totally unresolved. Recent improvements in computational ability as well as advances in GCM model design now allow for simulations with grid spacings as small as 10-25 km. At these resolutions, models are able to more effectively capture key dynamical features of tropical cyclones. This paper explores a variable-resolution global model approach that allows for high spatial resolutions in areas of interest, such as low-latitude ocean basins where tropical cyclogenesis occurs. Such GCM designs with multi-resolution meshes serve to bridge the gap between globally uniform grids and limited area models and have the potential to become a future tool for regional climate assessments. A statically-nested, variable-resolution option has recently been introduced into the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmosphere Model's (CAM) Spectral Element (SE) dynamical core. The SE dynamical core is also known as the 'High-Order Method Modeling Environment' (HOMME). We present aquaplanet climate experiments which showcase the ability of nested meshes to produce realistic tropical cyclones selectively in high resolution grids embedded within a global domain. We also evaluate model performance when coupled to an active land model and forced with historical sea surface temperatures by comparing multi-year results from variable-resolution CAM-SE to other globally-uniform high resolution tropical cyclone studies recently completed by the climate modeling community. Specific focus is paid to intensity profiles and track densities as well as the interannual variability in storm count in tropical regions of

  2. Analysing and combining atmospheric general circulation model simulations forced by prescribed SST. Tropical response

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moron, V. [Universite' de Provence, UFR des sciences geographiques et de l' amenagement, Aix-en-Provence (France); Navarra, A. [Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Bologna (Italy); Ward, M. N. [University of Oklahoma, Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies, Norman OK (United States); Foland, C. K. [Hadley Center for Climate Prediction and Research, Meteorological Office, Bracknell (United Kingdom); Friederichs, P. [Meteorologisches Institute des Universitaet Bonn, Bonn (Germany); Maynard, K.; Polcher, J. [Paris Universite' Pierre et Marie Curie, Paris (France). Centre Nationale de la Recherche Scientifique, Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique, Paris

    2001-08-01

    The ECHAM 3.2 (T21), ECHAM (T30) and LMD (version 6, grid-point resolution with 96 longitudes x 72 latitudes) atmospheric general circulation models were integrated through the period 1961 to 1993 forces with the same observed Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) as compiled at the Hadley Centre. Three runs were made for each model starting from different initial conditions. The large-scale tropical inter-annual variability is analysed to give a picture of a skill of each model and of some sort of combination of the three models. To analyse the similarity of model response averaged over the same key regions, several widely-used indices are calculated: Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), large-scale wind shear indices of the boreal summer monsoon in Asia and West Africa and rainfall indices for NE Brazil, Sahel and India. Even for the indices where internal noise is large, some years are consistent amongst all the runs, suggesting inter-annual variability of the strength of SST forcing. Averaging the ensemble mean of the three models (the super-ensemble mean) yields improved skill. When each run is weighted according to its skill, taking three runs from different models instead of three runs of the same model improves the mean skill. There is also some indication that one run of a given model could be better than another, suggesting that persistent anomalies could change its sensitivity to SST. The index approach lacks flexibility to assess whether a model's response to SST has been geographically displaced. It can focus on the first mode in the global tropics, found through singular value decomposition analysis, which is clearly related to El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in all seasons. The Observed-Model and Model-Model analyses lead to almost the same patterns, suggesting that the dominant pattern of model response is also the most skilful mode. Seasonal modulation of both skill and spatial patterns (both model and observed) clearly exists with highest skill

  3. Understanding and simulating the link between African easterly waves and Atlantic tropical cyclones using a regional climate model: the role of domain size and lateral boundary conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Caron, Louis-Philippe [MISU, Stockholm University, Stockholm (Sweden); Universite du Quebec a Montreal, CRCMD Network, Montreal, QC (Canada); Jones, Colin G. [Swedish Meterological and Hydrological Institute, Rossby Center, Norrkoeping (Sweden)

    2012-07-15

    Using a suite of lateral boundary conditions, we investigate the impact of domain size and boundary conditions on the Atlantic tropical cyclone and african easterly Wave activity simulated by a regional climate model. Irrespective of boundary conditions, simulations closest to observed climatology are obtained using a domain covering both the entire tropical Atlantic and northern African region. There is a clear degradation when the high-resolution model domain is diminished to cover only part of the African continent or only the tropical Atlantic. This is found to be the result of biases in the boundary data, which for the smaller domains, have a large impact on TC activity. In this series of simulations, the large-scale Atlantic atmospheric environment appears to be the primary control on simulated TC activity. Weaker wave activity is usually accompanied by a shift in cyclogenesis location, from the MDR to the subtropics. All ERA40-driven integrations manage to capture the observed interannual variability and to reproduce most of the upward trend in tropical cyclone activity observed during that period. When driven by low-resolution global climate model (GCM) integrations, the regional climate model captures interannual variability (albeit with lower correlation coefficients) only if tropical cyclones form in sufficient numbers in the main development region. However, all GCM-driven integrations fail to capture the upward trend in Atlantic tropical cyclone activity. In most integrations, variations in Atlantic tropical cyclone activity appear uncorrelated with variations in African easterly wave activity. (orig.)

  4. An examination of two pathway to tropical cyclogenesis occurring in idealized simulations with a cloud-resolving numerical model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. E. Nicholls

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Simulations are conducted with a cloud-resolving numerical model to examine the transformation of a weak incipient mid-level cyclonic vortex into a tropical cyclone. Results demonstrate that two distinct pathways are possible and that development along a particular pathway is sensitive to model physics and initial conditions. One pathway involves a steady increase of the surface winds to tropical cyclone strength as the radius of maximum winds gradually decreases. A notable feature of this evolution is the creation of small-scale lower tropospheric cyclonic vorticity anomalies by deep convective towers and subsequent merger and convergence by the low-level secondary circulation. The second pathway also begins with a strengthening low-level circulation, but eventually a significantly stronger mid-level circulation develops. Cyclogenesis occurs subsequently when a small-scale surface concentrated vortex forms abruptly near the center of the larger-scale circulation. The small-scale vortex is warm core throughout the troposphere and results in a local surface pressure fall of a few millibars. It usually develops rapidly, undergoing a modest growth to form a small tropical cyclone. Many of the simulated systems approach or reach tropical cyclone strength prior to development of a prominent mid-level vortex so that the subsequent formation of a strong small-scale surface concentrated vortex in these cases could be considered intensification rather than genesis.

    Experiments are performed to investigate the dependence on the inclusion of the ice phase, radiation, the size and strength of the incipient mid-level vortex, the amount of moisture present in the initial vortex, and the sea surface temperature. Notably, as the sea surface temperature is raised, the likelihood of development along the second pathway is increased. This appears to be related to an increased production of ice. The sensitivity of the pathway taken to model physics and

  5. An examination of two pathways to tropical cyclogenesis occurring in idealized simulations with a cloud-resolving numerical model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. E. Nicholls

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Simulations are conducted with a cloud-resolving numerical model to examine the transformation of a weak incipient mid-level cyclonic vortex into a tropical cyclone. Results demonstrate that two distinct pathways are possible and that development along a particular pathway is sensitive to model physics and initial conditions. One pathway involves a steady increase of the surface winds to tropical cyclone strength as the radius of maximum winds gradually decreases. A notable feature of this evolution is the creation of small-scale lower tropospheric cyclonic vorticity anomalies by deep convective towers and subsequent merger and convergence by the low-level secondary circulation. The second pathway also begins with a strengthening low-level circulation, but eventually a significantly stronger mid-level circulation develops. Cyclogenesis occurs subsequently when a small-scale surface concentrated vortex forms abruptly near the center of the larger-scale circulation. The small-scale vortex is warm core throughout the troposphere and results in a fall in local surface pressure of a few millibars. It usually develops rapidly, undergoing a modest growth to form a small tropical cyclone. Many of the simulated systems approach or reach tropical cyclone strength prior to development of a prominent mid-level vortex so that the subsequent formation of a strong small-scale surface concentrated vortex in these cases could be considered intensification rather than genesis. Experiments are performed to investigate the dependence on the inclusion of the ice phase, radiation, the size and strength of the incipient mid-level vortex, the amount of moisture present in the initial vortex, and the sea surface temperature. Notably, as the sea surface temperature is raised, the likelihood of development along the second pathway is increased. This appears to be related to an increased production of ice. The sensitivity of the pathway taken to model physics and initial

  6. A Regulation of Tropical Climate by Radiative Cooling as Simulated in a Cumulus Ensemble Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sui, Chung-Hsiung; Lau, K.-M.; Li, X.; Chou, M.-D.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

    2000-01-01

    Responses of tropical atmosphere to low-boundary forcing are investigated in a 2-D cumulus ensemble model (CEM) with an imposed warm-pool and cold-pool SST contrast (deltaSST). The domain-mean vertical motion is constrained to produce heat sink and moisture source as in the observed tropical climate. In a series of experiments, the warm pool SST is specified at different values while the cold pool SST is specified at 26 C. The strength of the circulation increases with increasing deltaSST until deltaSST reaches 3.5 C, and remains unchanged as deltaSST exceeds 3.5 C. The regulation of tropical convection by zonal SST gradient is constrained by the radiative cooling over the cold pool. For deltaSST less than 3.5 C, an enhanced subsidence warming is balanced by a reduced condensation heating over the cold pool. For deltaSST greater than 3.5 C, the subsidence regime expands over the entire cold pool where no condensation heating exist so that a further enhanced subsidence warming can no longer be sustained. The above regulation mechanism is also evident in the change of energy at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) that is dominated by cloud and water vapor greenhouse effect (c (sub LW)) and G (sub clear). The change in shortwave radiation at TOA is largely cancelled between the warm pool and cold pool, likely due to the same imposed vertical motion in our experiments. For deltaSST less than 3.5 C, an increase of deltaSST is associated with a large increase in c (sub Lw) due to increased total clouds in response to enhanced SST-induced circulation. For deltaSST greater than 3.5 C, clouds over the warm pool decrease with increasing SST, and the change in c (sub LW) is much smaller. In both dSST regimes, the change in CLW is larger than the change in G(sub clear) which is slightly negative. However, in the case of uniform warming (deltaSST=0), DeltaG(sub clear), is positive, approximately 5 W per square meters per degree change of SST.

  7. How good are the simulations of tropical SST–rainfall relationship by IPCC AR4 atmospheric and coupled models?

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    K Rajendran; Ravi S Nanjundiah; Sulochana Gadgil; J Srinivasan

    2012-06-01

    The failure of atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) forced by prescribed SST to simulate and predict the interannual variability of Indian/Asian monsoon has been widely attributed to their inability to reproduce the actual sea surface temperature (SST)–rainfall relationship in the warm Indo-Pacific oceans. This assessment is based on a comparison of the observed and simulated correlation between the rainfall and local SST. However, the observed SSTconvection/rainfall relationship is nonlinear and for this a linear measure such as the correlation is not an appropriate measure. We show that the SST–rainfall relationship simulated by atmospheric and coupled general circulation models in IPCC AR4 is nonlinear, as observed, and realistic over the tropical West Pacific (WPO) and the Indian Ocean (IO). The SST–rainfall pattern simulated by the coupled versions of these models is rather similar to that from the corresponding atmospheric one, except for a shift of the entire pattern to colder/warmer SSTs when there is a cold/warm bias in the coupled version.

  8. The Intra-Seasonal Oscillation and its control of tropical cyclones simulated by high-resolution global atmospheric models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Satoh, M.; Oouchi, K.; Nasuno, T.; Taniguchi, H.; Yamada, Y.; Tomita, H.; Kodama, C.; Kinter, J.; Achuthavarier, D.; Manganello, J.; Cash, B.; Jung, T.; Palmer, T.; Wedi, N.

    2012-11-01

    Project Athena is an international collaboration testing the efficacy of high-resolution global climate models. We compare results from 7-km mesh experiments of the Nonhydrostatic Icosahedral Atmospheric Model (NICAM) and 10-km mesh experiments of the Integrated Forecast System (IFS), focusing on the Intra-Seasonal Oscillation (ISO) and its relationship with tropical cyclones (TC) among the boreal summer period (21 May-31 Aug) of 8 years (2001-2002, 2004-2009). In the first month of simulation, both models capture the intra-seasonal oscillatory behavior of the Indian monsoon similar to the observed boreal summer ISO in approximately half of the 8-year samples. The IFS simulates the NW-SE-oriented rainband and the westerly location better, while NICAM marginally reproduces mesoscale organized convective systems and better simulates the northward migration of the westerly peak and precipitation, particularly in 2006. The reproducibility of the evolution of MJO depends on the given year; IFS simulates the MJO signal well for 2002, while NICAM simulates it well for 2006. An empirical orthogonal function analysis shows that both models statistically reproduce MJO signals similar to observations, with slightly better phase speed reproduced by NICAM. Stronger TCs are simulated in NICAM than in IFS, and NICAM shows a wind-pressure relation for TCs closer to observations. TC cyclogenesis is active during MJO phases 3 and 4 in NICAM as in observations. The results show the potential of high-resolution global atmospheric models in reproducing some aspects of the relationship between MJO and TCs and the statistical behavior of TCs.

  9. The Intra-Seasonal Oscillation and its control of tropical cyclones simulated by high-resolution global atmospheric models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Satoh, M. [The University of Tokyo, Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, Kashiwa-shi, Chiba (Japan); Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Research Institute for Global Change, Yokohama-shi, Kanagawa (Japan); Oouchi, K.; Nasuno, T.; Yamada, Y.; Kodama, C. [Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Research Institute for Global Change, Yokohama-shi, Kanagawa (Japan); Taniguchi, H. [University of Hawaii at Manoa, International Pacific Research Center, SOEST, Honolulu, HI (United States); Tomita, H. [Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Research Institute for Global Change, Yokohama-shi, Kanagawa (Japan); Advanced Institute for Computational Science/RIKEN, Kobe, Hyogo (Japan); Kinter, J.; Achuthavarier, D.; Manganello, J.; Cash, B. [Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD (United States); Jung, T. [European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading (United Kingdom); Alfred-Wegener-Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven (Germany); Palmer, T.; Wedi, N. [European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading (United Kingdom)

    2012-11-15

    Project Athena is an international collaboration testing the efficacy of high-resolution global climate models. We compare results from 7-km mesh experiments of the Nonhydrostatic Icosahedral Atmospheric Model (NICAM) and 10-km mesh experiments of the Integrated Forecast System (IFS), focusing on the Intra-Seasonal Oscillation (ISO) and its relationship with tropical cyclones (TC) among the boreal summer period (21 May-31 Aug) of 8 years (2001-2002, 2004-2009). In the first month of simulation, both models capture the intra-seasonal oscillatory behavior of the Indian monsoon similar to the observed boreal summer ISO in approximately half of the 8-year samples. The IFS simulates the NW-SE-oriented rainband and the westerly location better, while NICAM marginally reproduces mesoscale organized convective systems and better simulates the northward migration of the westerly peak and precipitation, particularly in 2006. The reproducibility of the evolution of MJO depends on the given year; IFS simulates the MJO signal well for 2002, while NICAM simulates it well for 2006. An empirical orthogonal function analysis shows that both models statistically reproduce MJO signals similar to observations, with slightly better phase speed reproduced by NICAM. Stronger TCs are simulated in NICAM than in IFS, and NICAM shows a wind-pressure relation for TCs closer to observations. TC cyclogenesis is active during MJO phases 3 and 4 in NICAM as in observations. The results show the potential of high-resolution global atmospheric models in reproducing some aspects of the relationship between MJO and TCs and the statistical behavior of TCs. (orig.)

  10. Impact of tropical Atlantic sea-surface temperature biases on the simulated atmospheric circulation and precipitation over the Atlantic region: An ECHAM6 model study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eichhorn, Astrid; Bader, Jürgen

    2017-09-01

    As many coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models, the coupled Earth System Model developed at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology suffers from severe sea-surface temperature (SST) biases in the tropical Atlantic. We performed a set of SST sensitivity experiments with its atmospheric model component ECHAM6 to understand the impact of tropical Atlantic SST biases on atmospheric circulation and precipitation. The model was forced by a climatology of observed global SSTs to focus on simulated seasonal and annual mean state climate. Through the superposition of varying tropical Atlantic bias patterns extracted from the MPI-ESM on top of the control field, this study investigates the relevance of the seasonal variation and spatial structure of tropical Atlantic biases for the simulated response. Results show that the position and structure of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) across the Atlantic is significantly affected, exhibiting a dynamically forced shift of annual mean precipitation maximum to the east of the Atlantic basin as well as a southward shift of the oceanic rain belt. The SST-induced changes in the ITCZ in turn affect seasonal rainfall over adjacent continents. However not only the ITCZ position but also other effects arising from biases in tropical Atlantic SSTs, e.g. variations in the wind field, change the simulation of precipitation over land. The seasonal variation and spatial pattern of tropical Atlantic SST biases turns out to be crucial for the simulated atmospheric response and is essential for analyzing the contribution of SST biases to coupled model mean state biases. Our experiments show that MPI-ESM mean-state biases in the Atlantic sector are mainly driven by SST biases in the tropical Atlantic while teleconnections from other basins seem to play a minor role.

  11. Simulations of the Tropical Intraseasonal Oscillation by the Atmospheric General Circulation Model of the Beijing Climate Center

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    DONG Min; WU Tongwen; WANG Zaizhi; ZHANG Fang

    2010-01-01

    The performance of BCC (Beijing Climate Center) AGCM 2.0.1 (Atmospheric General Circulation Model version 2.0.1) in simulating the tropical intraseasonal oscillation (TIO) is examined in this paper.The simulations are validated against observation and compared with the NCAR CAM3 (Community Atmosphere Model version 3) results.The BCC AGCM2.0.1 is developed based on the original BCC AGCM (version 1) and NCAR CAM3.New reference atmosphere and reference pressure are introduced into the model.Therefore,the original prognostic variables of temperature and surface pressure become their departures from the reference atmosphere.A new Zhang-McFarlane convective parameterization scheme is incorporated into the model with a few modifications.Other modifications include those in the boundary layer process and snow cover calculation.All simulations are run for 52 yr from 1949 to 2001 under the lower boundary conditions of observed monthly SST.The TIOs from the model are analyzed.The comparison shows that the NCAR CAM3 has a poor ability in simulating the TIO.The simulated strength of the TIO is very weak.The energy of the eastward moving waves is similar to that of the westward moving waves in CAM3.While in observation the former is much larger than the latter.The seasonal variation and spatial distribution of the TIO produced by CAM3 are also much different from the observation.The ability of the BCC AGCM2.0.1 in simulating the TIO is significantly better.The simulated TIO is evident.The strength of the TIO produced by the BCC AGCM2.0.1 is close to the observation.The energy of eastward moving.waves is much stronger than that of the westward moving waves,which is consistent with the observation.There is no significant difference in the seasonal variation and spatial distribution of the TIO between the BCC model simulation and the observation.In general,the BCC model performs better than CAM3 in simulating the TIO.

  12. Contradictory hydrological impacts of afforestation in the humid tropics evidenced by long-term field monitoring and simulation modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lacombe, Guillaume; Ribolzi, Olivier; de Rouw, Anneke; Pierret, Alain; Latsachak, Keoudone; Silvera, Norbert; Pham Dinh, Rinh; Orange, Didier; Janeau, Jean-Louis; Soulileuth, Bounsamai; Robain, Henri; Taccoen, Adrien; Sengphaathith, Phouthamaly; Mouche, Emmanuel; Sengtaheuanghoung, Oloth; Tran Duc, Toan; Valentin, Christian

    2016-07-01

    The humid tropics are exposed to an unprecedented modernisation of agriculture involving rapid and mixed land-use changes with contrasted environmental impacts. Afforestation is often mentioned as an unambiguous solution for restoring ecosystem services and enhancing biodiversity. One consequence of afforestation is the alteration of streamflow variability which controls habitats, water resources, and flood risks. We demonstrate that afforestation by tree planting or by natural forest regeneration can induce opposite hydrological changes. An observatory including long-term field measurements of fine-scale land-use mosaics and of hydrometeorological variables has been operating in several headwater catchments in tropical southeast Asia since 2000. The GR2M water balance model, repeatedly calibrated over successive 1-year periods and used in simulation mode with the same year of rainfall input, allowed the hydrological effect of land-use change to be isolated from that of rainfall variability in two of these catchments in Laos and Vietnam. Visual inspection of hydrographs, correlation analyses, and trend detection tests allowed causality between land-use changes and changes in seasonal streamflow to be ascertained. In Laos, the combination of shifting cultivation system (alternation of rice and fallow) and the gradual increase of teak tree plantations replacing fallow led to intricate streamflow patterns: pluri-annual streamflow cycles induced by the shifting system, on top of a gradual streamflow increase over years caused by the spread of the plantations. In Vietnam, the abandonment of continuously cropped areas combined with patches of mix-trees plantations led to the natural re-growth of forest communities followed by a gradual drop in streamflow. Soil infiltrability controlled by surface crusting is the predominant process explaining why two modes of afforestation (natural regeneration vs. planting) led to opposite changes in streamflow regime. Given that

  13. Enhanced Vertical Atmosphere Resolution improves Climate Model Simulation of Tropical Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature and Interannual Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harlass, Jan; Latif, Mojib; Park, Wonsun

    2015-04-01

    A long-standing problem in climate modelling is the inaccurate simulation of tropical Atlantic (TA) sea surface temperature (SST), known as the TA SST bias. Basically all state-of-the-art global climate models suffer from a reversed equatorial zonal SST gradient in the Atlantic and too warm surface temperatures in the Benguela upwelling region. These biases have far-reaching consequences for climate prediction as they go along, among others, with erroneous precipitation patterns. We used the coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea ice Kiel Climate Model (KCM) to conduct experiments with varying atmosphere model resolutions, while keeping the ocean component unchanged. Atmosphere model resolution has been increased not only in the horizontal (from T42 to T159), but also in the vertical (from L31 to L62). We show that the TA SST bias can be largely reduced by increasing both the atmospheric horizontal and vertical resolution. In particular, the zonal SST gradient along the equator is simulated with the correct sign. At high horizontal resolution, enhanced vertical resolution is indispensable to substantially improve the simulation of TA SST by enhancing the surface wind stress. This also reduces biases in the upper ocean thermal structure and precipitation. A major step forward is a more northward position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. Although enhanced horizontal resolution alone leads to some improvement in the mean climate, typical bias patterns, characterized by a reversed zonal SST gradient at the equator and too warm SST along the Benguela Coast, remain. Notable changes in the pattern of interannual SST variability occur with increased resolution. Seasonal phase locking is captured only at high vertical resolution, although a phase lag of 2 months still exists. Our study highlights the importance of sufficiently high atmospheric model resolution and, equally important, a consistent choice of horizontal and vertical model resolution.

  14. The ability of general circulation models to simulate tropical cyclones and their precursors over the North Atlantic main development region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Daloz, Anne Sophie; Chauvin, Fabrice [Groupe de Modelisation Grande Echelle et Climat, CNRM-GAME, Meteo-France, Toulouse Cedex 1 (France); Walsh, Kevin [University of Melbourne, School of Earth Sciences, Melbourne, VIC (Australia); Lavender, Sally; Abbs, Deborah [CSIRO Atmospheric and Marine Research, Aspendale, VIC (Australia); Roux, Frank [Universite de Toulouse and Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Laboratoire d' Aerologie, Toulouse (France)

    2012-10-15

    The ability of General Circulation Models (GCMs) to generate Tropical Cyclones (TCs) over the North Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR; 10-20 N, 20-80 W; Goldenberg and Shapiro in J Clim 9:1169-1187, 1996) is examined through a subset of ocean-atmosphere coupled simulations from the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) multimodel data set and a high-resolution (0.5 ) Sea Surface Temperature (SST)-forced simulation from the Australian Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model GCM. The results are compared with National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP-2) and European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts Re-Analysis (ERA-40) reanalyses over a common period from 1980 to 1998. Important biases in the representation of the TC activity are encountered over the MDR. This study emphasizes the strong link in the GCMs between African Easterly Waves (AEWs) and TC activity in this region. However, the generation of AEWs is not a sufficient condition alone for the models to produce TCs. Precipitation over the Sahel, especially rainfall over the Fouta Djallon highlands (cf. Fig. 1), is playing a role in the generation of TCs over the MDR. The influence of large-scale fields such as SST, vertical wind shear and tropospheric humidity on TC genesis is also examined. The ability of TC genesis indices, such as the Genesis Potential Index and the Convective Yearly Genesis Potential, to represent TC activity over the MDR in simulations at low to high spatial resolutions is analysed. These indices are found to be a reasonable method for comparing cyclogenesis in different models, even though other factors such as AEW activity should also be considered. (orig.)

  15. Sensitivity of the tropical stratospheric ozone response to the solar rotational cycle in observations and chemistry-climate model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thiéblemont, Rémi; Marchand, Marion; Bekki, Slimane; Bossay, Sébastien; Lefèvre, Franck; Meftah, Mustapha; Hauchecorne, Alain

    2017-08-01

    The tropical stratospheric ozone response to solar UV variations associated with the rotational cycle (˜ 27 days) is analyzed using MLS satellite observations and numerical simulations from the LMDz-Reprobus chemistry-climate model. The model is used in two configurations, as a chemistry-transport model (CTM) where dynamics are nudged toward ERA-Interim reanalysis and as a chemistry-climate model (free-running) (CCM). An ensemble of five 17-year simulations (1991-2007) is performed with the CCM. All simulations are forced by reconstructed time-varying solar spectral irradiance from the Naval Research Laboratory Solar Spectral Irradiance model. We first examine the ozone response to the solar rotational cycle during two 3-year periods which correspond to the declining phases of solar cycle 22 (October 1991-September 1994) and solar cycle 23 (September 2004-August 2007), when the satellite ozone observations of the two Microwave Limb Sounders (UARS MLS and Aura MLS) are available. In the observations, during the first period, ozone and UV flux are found to be correlated between about 10 and 1 hPa with a maximum of 0.29 at ˜ 5 hPa; the ozone sensitivity (% change in ozone for 1 % change in UV) peaks at ˜ 0.4. Correlation during the second period is weaker and has a peak ozone sensitivity of only 0.2, possibly due to the fact that the solar forcing is weaker during that period. The CTM simulation reproduces most of these observed features, including the differences between the two periods. The CCM ensemble mean results comparatively show much smaller differences between the two periods, suggesting that the amplitude of the rotational ozone signal estimated from MLS observations or the CTM simulation is strongly influenced by other (non-solar) sources of variability, notably dynamics. The analysis of the ensemble of CCM simulations shows that the estimation of the ensemble mean ozone sensitivity does not vary significantly either with the amplitude of the solar

  16. Simulating tropical carbon stocks and fluxes in a changing world using an individual-based forest model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, Rico; Huth, Andreas

    2014-05-01

    Large areas of tropical forests are disturbed due to climate change and human influence. Experts estimate that the last remaining rainforests could be destroyed in less than 100 years with strong consequences for both developing and industrial countries. Using a modelling approach we analyse how disturbances modify carbon stocks and carbon fluxes of African rainforests. In this study we use the process-based, individual-oriented forest model FORMIND. The main processes of this model are tree growth, mortality, regeneration and competition. The study regions are tropical rainforests in the Kilimanjaro region and Madagascar. Modelling above and below ground carbon stocks, we analyze the impact of disturbances and climate change on forest dynamics and forest carbon stocks. Droughts and fire events change the structure of tropical rainforests. Human influence like logging intensify this effect. With the presented results we could establish new allometric relationships between forest variables and above ground carbon stocks in tropical regions. Using remote sensing techniques, these relationships would offer the possibility for a global monitoring of the above ground carbon stored in the vegetation.

  17. Modeling radiative transfer in tropical rainforest canopies: sensitivity of simulated albedo to canopy architectural and optical parameters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yanagi, Sílvia N M; Costa, Marcos H

    2011-12-01

    This study evaluates the sensitivity of the surface albedo simulated by the Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS) to a set of Amazonian tropical rainforest canopy architectural and optical parameters. The parameters tested in this study are the orientation and reflectance of the leaves of upper and lower canopies in the visible (VIS) and near-infrared (NIR) spectral bands. The results are evaluated against albedo measurements taken above the K34 site at the INPA (Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia) Cuieiras Biological Reserve. The sensitivity analysis indicates a strong response to the upper canopy leaves orientation (χup) and to the reflectivity in the near-infrared spectral band (ρNIR,up), a smaller sensitivity to the reflectivity in the visible spectral band (ρVIS,up) and no sensitivity at all to the lower canopy parameters, which is consistent with the canopy structure. The combination of parameters that minimized the Root Mean Square Error and mean relative error are χup = 0.86, ρVIS,up = 0.062 and ρNIR,up = 0.275. The parameterizations performed resulted in successful simulations of tropical rainforest albedo by IBIS, indicating its potential to simulate the canopy radiative transfer for narrow spectral bands and permitting close comparison with remote sensing products.

  18. Glacial-interglacial variability in Tropical Pangaean Precipitation during the Late Paleozoic Ice Age: simulations with the Community Climate System Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. G. Heavens

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available The Late Paleozoic Ice Age (LPIA, the Earth's penultimate "icehouse climate", was a critical time in the history of biological and ecological evolution. Many questions remain about the connections between high-latitude glaciation in Gondwanaland and low-latitude precipitation variability in Pangaea. We have simulated the Earth's climate during Asselian-Sakmarian time (299–284 Ma with the Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3, a coupled dynamic atmosphere-ocean-land-sea-ice model. Our simulations test the sensitivity of the model climate to direct and indirect effects of glaciation as well as variability in the Earth's orbit. Our focus is on precipitation variability in tropical (30° S–30° N Pangaea, where there has been the most interpretation of glacial-interglacial climate change during the LPIA. The results of these simulations suggest that glacials generally were drier than interglacials in tropical Pangaea, though exceptional areas may have been wetter, depending on location and the mode of glaciation. Lower sea level, an indirect effect of changes in glacial extent, appears to reduce tropical Pangaean precipitation more than the direct radiative/topographic effects of high-latitude glaciation. Glaciation of the Central Pangaean Mountains would have greatly reduced equatorial Pangaean precipitation, while perhaps enhancing precipitation at higher tropical latitudes and in equatorial rain shadows. Variability evident in strata with 5th order stratigraphic cycles may have resulted from precipitation changes owing to precession forcing of monsoon circulations and would have differed in character between greenhouse and icehouse climates.

  19. A Study of the Response of Deep Tropical Clouds to Mesoscale Processes. Part 1; Modeling Strategies and Simulations of TOGA-COARE Convective Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Daniel E.; Tao, W.-K.; Simpson, J.; Sui, C.-H.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    Interactions between deep tropical clouds over the western Pacific warm pool and the larger-scale environment are key to understanding climate change. Cloud models are an extremely useful tool in simulating and providing statistical information on heat and moisture transfer processes between cloud systems and the environment, and can therefore be utilized to substantially improve cloud parameterizations in climate models. In this paper, the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) cloud-resolving model is used in multi-day simulations of deep tropical convective activity over the Tropical Ocean-Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Response Experiment (TOGA COARE). Large-scale temperature and moisture advective tendencies, and horizontal momentum from the TOGA-COARE Intensive Flux Array (IFA) region, are applied to the GCE version which incorporates cyclical boundary conditions. Sensitivity experiments show that grid domain size produces the largest response to domain-mean temperature and moisture deviations, as well as cloudiness, when compared to grid horizontal or vertical resolution, and advection scheme. It is found that a minimum grid-domain size of 500 km is needed to adequately resolve the convective cloud features. The control experiment shows that the atmospheric heating and moistening is primarily a response to cloud latent processes of condensation/evaporation, and deposition/sublimation, and to a lesser extent, melting of ice particles. Air-sea exchange of heat and moisture is found to be significant, but of secondary importance, while the radiational response is small. The simulated rainfall and atmospheric heating and moistening, agrees well with observations, and performs favorably to other models simulating this case.

  20. Simulation of aerosol optical properties over a tropical urban site in India using a global model and its comparison with ground measurements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Takemura

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Aerosols have great impacts on atmospheric environment, human health, and earth's climate. Therefore, information on their spatial and temporal distribution is of paramount importance. Despite numerous studies have examined the variation and trends of BC and AOD over India, only very few have focused on their spatial distribution or even correlating the observations with model simulations. In the present study, a three-dimensional aerosol transport-radiation model coupled with a general circulation model. SPRINTARS, simulated atmospheric aerosol distributions including BC and aerosol optical properties, i.e., aerosol optical thickness (AOT, Ångström Exponent (AE, and single scattering albedo (SSA. The simulated results are compared with both BC measurements by aethalometer and aerosol optical properties measured by ground-based skyradiometer and by satellite sensor, MODIS/Terra over Hyderabad, which is a tropical urban area of India, for the year 2008. The simulated AOT and AE in Hyderabad are found to be comparable to ground-based measured ones. The simulated SSA tends to be higher than the ground-based measurements. Both these comparisons of aerosol optical properties between the simulations with different emission inventories and the measurements indicate that, firstly the model uncertainties derived from aerosol emission inventory cannot explain the gaps between the simulations and the measurements and secondly the vertical transport of BC and the treatment of BC-containing particles can be the main issue in the global model to solve the gap.

  1. Tropical disturbances in relation to general circulation modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Estoque, M. A.

    1982-01-01

    The initial results of an evaluation of the performance of the Goddard Laboratory of Atmospheric Simulation general circulation model depicting the tropical atmosphere during the summer are presented. Because the results show the existence of tropical wave disturbances throughout the tropics, the characteristics of synoptic disturbances over Africa were studied and a synoptic case study of a selected disturbance in this area was conducted. It is shown that the model is able to reproduce wave type synoptic disturbances in the tropics. The findings show that, in one of the summers simulated, the disturbances are predominantly closed vortices; in another summer, the predominant disturbances are open waves.

  2. Modeling radiative transfer in tropical rainforest canopies: sensitivity of simulated albedo to canopy architectural and optical parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sílvia N. M. Yanagi

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available This study evaluates the sensitivity of the surface albedo simulated by the Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS to a set of Amazonian tropical rainforest canopy architectural and optical parameters. The parameters tested in this study are the orientation and reflectance of the leaves of upper and lower canopies in the visible (VIS and near-infrared (NIR spectral bands. The results are evaluated against albedo measurements taken above the K34 site at the INPA (Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia Cuieiras Biological Reserve. The sensitivity analysis indicates a strong response to the upper canopy leaves orientation (x up and to the reflectivity in the near-infrared spectral band (rNIR,up, a smaller sensitivity to the reflectivity in the visible spectral band (rVIS,up and no sensitivity at all to the lower canopy parameters, which is consistent with the canopy structure. The combination of parameters that minimized the Root Mean Square Error and mean relative error are Xup = 0.86, rVIS,up = 0.062 and rNIR,up = 0.275. The parameterizations performed resulted in successful simulations of tropical rainforest albedo by IBIS, indicating its potential to simulate the canopy radiative transfer for narrow spectral bands and permitting close comparison with remote sensing products.Este estudo avalia a sensibilidade do albedo da superfície pelo Simulador Integrado da Biosfera (IBIS a um conjunto de parâmetros que representam algumas propriedades arquitetônicas e óticas do dossel da floresta tropical Amazônica. Os parâmetros testados neste estudo são a orientação e refletância das folhas do dossel superior e inferior nas bandas espectrais do visível (VIS e infravermelho próximo (NIR. Os resultados são avaliados contra observações feitas no sítio K34 pertencente ao Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia (INPA na Reserva Biológica de Cuieiras. A análise de sensibilidade indica uma forte resposta aos parâmetros de orienta

  3. Controls on phase composition and ice water content in a convection-permitting model simulation of a tropical mesoscale convective system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franklin, Charmaine N.; Protat, Alain; Leroy, Delphine; Fontaine, Emmanuel

    2016-07-01

    Simulations of tropical convection from an operational numerical weather prediction model are evaluated with the focus on the model's ability to simulate the observed high ice water contents associated with the outflow of deep convection and to investigate the modelled processes that control the phase composition of tropical convective clouds. The 1 km horizontal grid length model that uses a single-moment microphysics scheme simulates the intensification and decay of convective strength across the mesoscale convective system. However, deep convection is produced too early, the OLR (outgoing longwave radiation) is underestimated and the areas with reflectivities > 30 dBZ are overestimated due to too much rain above the freezing level, stronger updraughts and larger particle sizes in the model. The inclusion of a heterogeneous rain-freezing parameterisation and the use of different ice size distributions show better agreement with the observed reflectivity distributions; however, this simulation still produces a broader profile with many high-reflectivity outliers demonstrating the greater occurrence of convective cells in the simulations. Examining the phase composition shows that the amount of liquid and ice in the modelled convective updraughts is controlled by the following: the size of the ice particles, with larger particles growing more efficiently through riming and producing larger IWC (ice water content); the efficiency of the warm rain process, with greater cloud water contents being available to support larger ice growth rates; and exclusion or limitation of graupel growth, with more mass contained in slower falling snow particles resulting in an increase of in-cloud residence times and more efficient removal of LWC (liquid water content). In this simulated case using a 1 km grid length model, horizontal mass divergence in the mixed-phase regions of convective updraughts is most sensitive to the turbulence formulation. Greater mixing of environmental air

  4. Responses of the Tropical Pacific to Wind Forcing as Observed by Spaceborne Sensors and Simulated by an Ocean General Circulation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, W. Timothy; Tang, Qenqing; Atlas, Robert

    1996-01-01

    In this study, satellite observations, in situ measurements, and model simulations are combined to assess the oceanic response to surface wind forcing in the equatorial Pacific. The surface wind fields derived from observations by the spaceborne special sensor microwave imager (SSM/I) and from the operational products of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) are compared. When SSM/I winds are used to force a primitive-equation ocean general circulation model (OGCM), they produce 3 C more surface cooling than ECMWF winds for the eastern equatorial Pacific during the cool phase of an El Nino-Southern Oscillation event. The stronger cooling by SSM/I winds is in good agreement with measurements at the moored buoys and observations by the advanced very high resolution radiometer, indicating that SSM/I winds are superior to ECMWF winds in forcing the tropical ocean. In comparison with measurements from buoys, tide gauges, and the Geosat altimeter, the OGCM simulates the temporal variations of temperature, steric, and sea level changes with reasonable realism when forced with the satellite winds. There are discrepancies between model simulations and observations that are common to both wind forcing fields, one of which is the simulation of zonal currents; they could be attributed to model deficiencies. By examining model simulations under two winds, vertical heat advection and uplifting of the thermocline are found to be the dominant factors in the anomalous cooling of the ocean mixed layer.

  5. A SIMULATION STUDY OF THE INFLUENCE OF LAND FRICTION ON LANDFALL TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACK AND INTENSITY

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YUAN Jin-nan; HUANG Yan-yan; LIU Chun-xia; WAN Qi-lin

    2008-01-01

    A quasi-geostrophic barotropic vorticity equation model is used to simulate the influences of topographic forcing and land friction on landfall tropical cyclone track and intensity. The simulation results show that tropical cyclone track may have sudden deflection when the action of topographic friction dissipation is considered, and sudden deflection of the track is easy to happen and sudden change of tropical cyclone intensity is not clear when the intensity of tropical cyclone is weak and the land friction is strong.The land friction may be an important factor that causes sudden deflection of tropical cyclone track around landfall.

  6. Weak simulated extratropical responses to complete tropical deforestation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Findell, K.L.; Knutson, T.R.; Milly, P.C.D.

    2006-01-01

    The Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory atmosphere-land model version 2 (AM2/LM2) coupled to a 50-m-thick slab ocean model has been used to investigate remote responses to tropical deforestation. Magnitudes and significance of differences between a control run and a deforested run are assessed through comparisons of 50-yr time series, accounting for autocorrelation and field significance. Complete conversion of the broadleaf evergreen forests of South America, central Africa, and the islands of Oceania to grasslands leads to highly significant local responses. In addition, a broad but mild warming is seen throughout the tropical troposphere (deforested run and the control run are similar in magnitude and area to the differences between nonoverlapping segments of the control run. These simulations suggest that extratropical responses to complete tropical deforestation are unlikely to be distinguishable from natural climate variability.

  7. Vegetation-climate feedback causes reduced precipitation and tropical rainforest cover in CMIP5 regional Earth system model simulation over Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, M.; Smith, B.; Samuelsson, P.; Rummukainen, M.; Schurgers, G.

    2012-12-01

    We applied a coupled regional climate-vegetation model, RCA-GUESS (Smith et al. 2011), over the CORDEX Africa domain, forced by boundary conditions from a CanESM2 CMIP5 simulation under the RCP8.5 future climate scenario. The simulations were from 1961 to 2100 and covered the African continent at a horizontal grid spacing of 0.44°. RCA-GUESS simulates changes in the phenology, productivity, relative cover and population structure of up to eight plant function types (PFTs) in response to forcing from the climate part of the model. These vegetation changes feed back to simulated climate through dynamic adjustments in surface energy fluxes and surface properties. Changes in the net ecosystem-atmosphere carbon flux and its components net primary production (NPP), heterotrophic respiration and emissions from biomass burning were also simulated but do not feed back to climate in our model. Constant land cover was assumed. We compared simulations with and without vegetation feedback switched "on" to assess the influence of vegetation-climate feedback on simulated climate, vegetation and ecosystem carbon cycling. Both positive and negative warming feedbacks were identified in different parts of Africa. In the Sahel savannah zone near 15°N, reduced vegetation cover and productivity, and mortality caused by a deterioration of soil water conditions led to a positive warming feedback mediated by decreased evapotranspiration and increased sensible heat flux between vegetation and the atmosphere. In the equatorial rainforest stronghold region of central Africa, a feedback syndrome characterised by reduced plant production and LAI, a dominance shift from tropical trees to grasses, reduced soil water and reduced rainfall was identified. The likely underlying mechanism was a decline in evaporative water recycling associated with sparser vegetation cover, reminiscent of Earth system model studies in which a similar feedback mechanism was simulated to force dieback of tropical

  8. Microscale anthropogenic pollution modelling in a small tropical island during weak trade winds: Lagrangian particle dispersion simulations using real nested LES meteorological fields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cécé, Raphaël; Bernard, Didier; Brioude, Jérome; Zahibo, Narcisse

    2016-08-01

    Tropical islands are characterized by thermal and orographical forcings which may generate microscale air mass circulations. The Lesser Antilles Arc includes small tropical islands (width lower than 50 km) where a total of one-and-a-half million people live. Air quality over this region is affected by anthropogenic and volcanic emissions, or saharan dust. To reduce risks for the population health, the atmospheric dispersion of emitted pollutants must be predicted. In this study, the dispersion of anthropogenic nitrogen oxides (NOx) is numerically modelled over the densely populated area of the Guadeloupe archipelago under weak trade winds, during a typical case of severe pollution. The main goal is to analyze how microscale resolutions affect air pollution in a small tropical island. Three resolutions of domain grid are selected: 1 km, 333 m and 111 m. The Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) is used to produce real nested microscale meteorological fields. Then the weather outputs initialize the Lagrangian Particle Dispersion Model (FLEXPART). The forward simulations of a power plant plume showed good ability to reproduce nocturnal peaks recorded by an urban air quality station. The increase in resolution resulted in an improvement of model sensitivity. The nesting to subkilometer grids helped to reduce an overestimation bias mainly because the LES domains better simulate the turbulent motions governing nocturnal flows. For peaks observed at two air quality stations, the backward sensitivity outputs identified realistic sources of NOx in the area. The increase in resolution produced a sharper inverse plume with a more accurate source area. This study showed the first application of the FLEXPART-WRF model to microscale resolutions. Overall, the coupling model WRF-LES-FLEXPART is useful to simulate the pollutant dispersion during a real case of calm wind regime over a complex terrain area. The forward and backward simulation results showed clearly that the

  9. Assessment of FAO AquaCrop Model for Simulating Maize Growth and Productivity under Deficit Irrigation in a Tropical Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Geneille E. Greaves

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Crop simulation models have a pivotal role to play in evaluating irrigation management strategies for improving agricultural water use. The objective of this study was to test and validate the AquaCrop model for maize under deficit irrigation management. Field observations from three experiments consisting of four treatments were used to evaluate model performance in simulating canopy cover (CC, biomass (B, yield (Y, crop evapotranspiration (ETc, and water use efficiency (WUE. Statistics for root mean square error, model efficiency (E, and index of agreement for B and CC suggest that the model prediction is good under non-stressed and moderate stress environments. Prediction of final B and Y under these conditions was acceptable, as indicated by the high coefficient of determination and deviations <10%. In severely stressed conditions, low E and deviations >11% for B and 9% for Y indicate a reduction in the model reliability. Simulated ETc and WUE deviation from observed values were within the range of 9.5% to 22.2% and 6.0% to 32.2%, respectively, suggesting that AquaCrop prediction of these variables is fair, becoming unsatisfactory as plant water stress intensifies. AquaCrop can be reliably used for evaluating the effectiveness of proposed irrigation management strategies for maize; however, the limitations should be kept in mind when interpreting the results in severely stressed conditions.

  10. NUMERICAL SIMULATIONS OF β-GYRES IN TROPICAL CYCLONES

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    杨洪波; 张铭

    2003-01-01

    The circulation of β-gyres in tropical cyclones is studied using numerical simulations. As shown in the result, there is clear circulation of β-gyres in the deviation flow field of the middle layer of the model,i.e. there is cyclone current west of the vortex center but anticyclone current east of it. The theory analysis shows that the circulation of β-gyres is formed by the advection of geostrophic vorticity.

  11. Evaluating regional cloud-permitting simulations of the WRF model for the Tropical Warm Pool International Cloud Experiment (TWP-ICE, Darwin 2006)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Yi; Long, Charles N.; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Dudhia, Jimy; McFarlane, Sally A.; Mather, James H.; Ghan, Steven J.; Liu, Xiaodong

    2009-11-05

    Data from the Tropical Warm Pool I5 nternational Cloud Experiment (TWPICE) were used to evaluate two suites of high-resolution (4-7 km, convection-resolving) simulations of the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with a focus on the performance of different cloud microphysics (MP) schemes. The major difference between these two suites of simulations is with and without the reinitializing process. Whenreinitialized every three days, the four cloud MP schemes evaluated can capture the general profiles of cloud fraction, temperature, water vapor, winds, and cloud liquid and ice water content (LWC and IWC, respectively). However, compared with surface measurements of radiative and moisture fluxes and satellite retrieval of top-of-the-atmosphere (TOA) fluxes, disagreements do exist. Large discrepancies with observed LWC and IWC and derived radiative heating profiles can be attributed to both the limitations of the cloud property retrievals and model performance. The simulated precipitation also shows a wide range of uncertainty as compared with observations, which could be caused by the cloud MP schemes, complexity of land-sea configuration, and the high temporal and spatial variability. In general, our result indicates the importance of large-scale initial and lateral boundary conditions in re-producing basic features of cloudiness and its vertical structures. Based on our case study, we find overall the six-hydrometer single-moment MP scheme(WSM6) [Hong and Lim, 2006] in the WRF model si25 mulates the best agree- ment with the TWPICE observational analysis.

  12. Modeling Tropical Precipitation in a Single Column.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sobel, Adam H.; Bretherton, Christopher S.

    2000-12-01

    A modified formulation of the traditional single column model for representing a limited area near the equator is proposed. This formulation can also be considered a two-column model in the limit as the area represented by one of the columns becomes very large compared to the other. Only a single column is explicitly modeled, but its free tropospheric temperature, rather than its mean vertical velocity, is prescribed. This allows the precipitation and vertical velocity to be true prognostic variables, as in prior analytical theories of tropical precipitation. Two models developed by other authors are modified according to the proposed formulation. The first is the intermediate atmospheric model of J. D. Neelin and N. Zeng, but with the horizontal connections between columns broken, rendering it a set of disconnected column models. The second is the column model of N. O. Rennó, K. A. Emanuel, and P. H. Stone. In the first model, the set of disconnected column models is run with a fixed temperature that is uniform in the Tropics, and insolation, SST, and surface wind speed taken from a control run of the original model. The column models produce a climatological precipitation field that is grossly similar to that of the control run, despite that the circulation implied by the column models is not required to conserve mass. The addition of horizontal moisture advection by the wind from the control run substantially improves the simulation in dry regions. In the second model the sensitivity of the modeled steady-state precipitation and relative humidity to varying SST and wind speed is examined. The transition from shallow to deep convection is simulated in a `Lagrangian' calculation in which the column model is subjected to an SST that increases in time. In this simulation, the onset of deep convection is delayed to a higher SST than in the steady-state case, due to the effect of horizontal moisture advection (viewed in a Lagrangian reference frame). In both of the

  13. Detailed cloud resolving model simulations of the impacts of Saharan air layer dust on tropical deep convection – Part 1: Dust acts as ice nuclei

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Gong

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Observational studies suggest that the Saharan Air Layer (SAL, an elevated layer (850–500 hPa of Saharan air and mineral dust, has strong impacts on the microphysical as well as dynamical properties of tropical deep convective cloud systems along its track. In this case study, numerical simulations using a two-dimensional Detailed Cloud Resolving Model (DCRM were carried out to investigate the dust-cloud interactions in the tropical deep convection, focusing on the dust role as Ice Nuclei (IN.

    The simulations showed that mineral dust considerably enhanced heterogeneous nucleation and freezing at temperatures warmer than −40 °C, resulting in more ice hydrometeors number concentration and reduced precipitating size of ice particles. Because of the lower in the saturation over ice as well as more droplet freezing, total latent heating increased, and consequently the updraft velocity was stronger.

    On the other hand, the increased ice deposition consumed more water vapor at middle troposphere, which induces a competition for water vapor between heterogeneous and homogeneous freezing and nucleation. As a result, dust suppressed the homogeneous droplet freezing and nucleation due to the heterogeneous droplet freezing and the weakened transport of water vapor at lower stratosphere, respectively. These effects led to decreased number concentration of ice cloud particles in the upper troposphere, and consequently lowered the cloud top height during the stratus precipitating stage.

    Acting as IN, mineral dust also influenced precipitation in deep convection. It initiated earlier the collection because dust-related heterogeneous nucleation and freezing at middle troposphere occur earlier than homogeneous nucleation at higher altitudes. Nevertheless, the convective precipitation was suppressed by reduced collection of large graupel particles and insufficient fallout related to decreased sizes of precipitating ice hydrometeors

  14. Global 60 km simulations with CCAM: evaluation over the tropics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nguyen, Kim C.; Katzfey, Jack J.; McGregor, John L. [Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research (A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology), PB1 Aspendale, VIC (Australia)

    2012-08-15

    A six-member ensemble of 60 km resolution global atmospheric simulations has been performed for studying future climate scenarios of Pacific island nations. The simulations were performed using the CSIRO Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM), driven by bias-corrected sea surface temperatures (SSTs) provided by six Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 global climate models (GCMs) from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report for the period 1971-2100. This paper focuses on results for the representation of the current climate in the tropical region, a region where the ''cold tongue'' problem is apparent in all host GCMs. The SST bias-correction and the fine horizontal resolution employed in the CCAM simulations produce a significant improvement over the host GCMs in the rainfall patterns for the transient seasons March-April-May and September-October-November, and a moderate improvement for December-January-February and June-July-August. CCAM also simulates improved rainfall patterns over the South Pacific Convergence Zone. The performance of other tropical features, such as El Nino Southern Oscillation and the Walker circulation, is also evaluated. (orig.)

  15. Impact of parameterization of physical processes on simulation of track and intensity of tropical cyclone Nargis (2008) with WRF-NMM model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pattanayak, Sujata; Mohanty, U C; Osuri, Krishna K

    2012-01-01

    The present study is carried out to investigate the performance of different cumulus convection, planetary boundary layer, land surface processes, and microphysics parameterization schemes in the simulation of a very severe cyclonic storm (VSCS) Nargis (2008), developed in the central Bay of Bengal on 27 April 2008. For this purpose, the nonhydrostatic mesoscale model (NMM) dynamic core of weather research and forecasting (WRF) system is used. Model-simulated track positions and intensity in terms of minimum central mean sea level pressure (MSLP), maximum surface wind (10 m), and precipitation are verified with observations as provided by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) and Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM). The estimated optimum combination is reinvestigated with six different initial conditions of the same case to have better conclusion on the performance of WRF-NMM. A few more diagnostic fields like vertical velocity, vorticity, and heat fluxes are also evaluated. The results indicate that cumulus convection play an important role in the movement of the cyclone, and PBL has a crucial role in the intensification of the storm. The combination of Simplified Arakawa Schubert (SAS) convection, Yonsei University (YSU) PBL, NMM land surface, and Ferrier microphysics parameterization schemes in WRF-NMM give better track and intensity forecast with minimum vector displacement error.

  16. Simulation of salinity variability and the related freshwater flux forcing in the tropical Pacific: An evaluation using the Beijing normal university earth system model (BNU-ESM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhi, Hai; Zhang, Rong-Hua; Lin, Pengfei; Wang, Lanning

    2015-11-01

    The climatology and interannual variability of sea surface salinity (SSS) and freshwater flux (FWF) in the equatorial Pacific are analyzed and evaluated using simulations from the Beijing Normal University Earth System Model (BNU-ESM). The simulated annual climatology and interannual variations of SSS, FWF, mixed layer depth (MLD), and buoyancy flux agree with those observed in the equatorial Pacific. The relationships among the interannual anomaly fields simulated by BNU-ESM are analyzed to illustrate the climate feedbacks induced by FWF in the tropical Pacific. The largest interannual variations of SSS and FWF are located in the western-central equatorial Pacific. A positive FWF feedback effect on sea surface temperature (SST) in the equatorial Pacific is identified. As a response to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the interannual variation of FWF induces ocean processes which, in turn, enhance ENSO. During El Niño, a positive FWF anomaly in the western-central Pacific (an indication of increased precipitation rates) acts to enhance a negative salinity anomaly and a negative surface ocean density anomaly, leading to stable stratification in the upper ocean. Hence, the vertical mixing and entrainment of subsurface water into the mixed layer are reduced, and the associated El Niño is enhanced. Related to this positive feedback, the simulated FWF bias is clearly reflected in SSS and SST simulations, with a positive FWF perturbation into the ocean corresponding to a low SSS and a small surface ocean density in the western-central equatorial Pacific warm pool.

  17. The roles of vertical mixing, solar radiation, and wind stress in a model simulation of the sea surface temperature seasonal cycle in the tropical Pacfic Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Dake; Busalacchi, Antonio J.; Rothstein, Lewis M.

    1994-01-01

    The climatological seasonal cycle of sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Pacific is simulated using a newly developed upper ocean model. The roles of vertical mixing, solar radiation, and wind stress are investigated in a hierarchy of numerical experiments with various combinations of vertical mixing algorithms and surface-forcing products. It is found that the large SST annual cycle in the eastern equatorial Pacific is, to a large extent, controlled by the annually varying mixed layer depth which, in turn, is mainly determined by the competing effects of solar radiation and wind forcing. With the application of our hybrid vertical mixing scheme the model-simulated SST annual cycle is much improved in both amplitude and phase as compared to the case of a constant mixed layer depth. Beside the strong effects on vertical mixing, solar radiation is the primary heating term in the surface layer heat budget, and wind forcing influences SST by driving oceanic advective processes that redistribute heat in the upper ocean. For example, the SST seasonal cycle in the western Pacific basically follows the semiannual variation of solar heating, and the cycle in the central equatorial region is significantly affected by the zonal advective heat flux associated with the seasonally reversing South Equatorial Current. It has been shown in our experiments that the amount of heat flux modification needed to eliminate the annual mean SST errors in the model is, on average, no larger than the annual mean uncertainties among the various surface flux products used in this study. Whereas a bias correction is needed to account for remaining uncertainties in the annual mean heat flux, this study demonstrates that with proper treatment of mixed layer physics and realistic forcing functions the seasonal variability of SST is capable of being simulated successfully in response to external forcing without relying on a relaxation or damping formulation for the dominant surface heat

  18. Spiral rainband in a numerically simulated tropical cyclone

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHU Peijun; ZHENG Yongguang; WANG Hongqing; TAO Zuyu

    2005-01-01

    Spiral rainband is a prominent structure of tropical cyclone. Though its forming mechanism, vortex Rossby wave theory, has been widely recent in recent years, its internal structural features are still not well known. The spiral rainband in the severe tropical storm Kammuri (2002), which caused heavy rainfall in southeast China, is simulated using the mesoscale model MM5 (V3). Results show that the simulated spiral rainband propagates azimuthally at a speed close to that of vortex Rossby wave in theory, and is accom- panied with energy dispersion in the radial direction. The structural features of simulated spiral rainband are analyzed with the high-resolution model output including the full physical process. Positive vorticity, ascending motion, hori- zontal momentum and so on are highly concentrated in the spiral rainband. The convergent moisture of spiral rainband comes mostly from the planetary boundary layer under 1 km. Airflow from the outside of spiral rainband is convective instability, which can provide instability energy for convec- tion development. However, the atmospheric stratification in the inside of spiral rainband is neutral, implying that the instability energy has been released. There is a mesoscale strong wind band just near the spiral rainband in the outer side with a maximum wind speed exceeding 30 m/s, which results from the pressure force acceleration when the air flows into the spiral rainband along the gradient of pressure.

  19. The NOW regional coupled model: Application to the tropical Indian Ocean climate and tropical cyclone activity

    OpenAIRE

    Samson, G; Masson, S.; M. Lengaigne; Keerthi, M. G.; Vialard, J; S. Pous; Madec, G.; Jourdain, N. C.; Jullien, S; MENKES, C.; Marchesiello, P.

    2014-01-01

    International audience; This paper presents the NOW regional coupled ocean-atmosphere model built from the NEMO ocean and WRF atmospheric numerical models. This model is applied to the tropical Indian Ocean, with the oceanic and atmospheric components sharing a common 1 =4 horizontal grid. Long experiments are performed over the 1990–2009 period using the Betts-Miller-Janjic (BMJ) and Kain-Fritsch (KF) cumulus parameterizations. Both simulations produce a realistic distribution of seasonal ra...

  20. A comparative study of the role of the Saharan air layer in the evolution of two disparate Atlantic tropical cyclones using WRF model simulations and energetics calculations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross, Robert S.; Krishnamurti, T. N.; Chaney, Kirsten M.

    2016-02-01

    The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model 5-day simulations of Major Hurricane Julia (2010) and Tropical Storm Florence (2012), both of which developed from African easterly waves, are used to conduct a complete energetics study to explain why one storm became a major hurricane while the other weakened to a wave. The disparate intensity outcomes are caused by significant differences in the energetics of the two systems that emerge in their storm stages due to differences in the impact of the Saharan air layer (SAL). In their wave stages both waves exhibit a convectively driven energy production cycle, in which the regions of positive barotropic and baroclinic energy conversion and of diabatic heating and rainfall are all superimposed. Convection induces barotropic instability which then enhances the baroclinic overturning through a resonance of the two instabilities, which together produce the eddy kinetic energy. Diabatic heating in the convection generates eddy available potential energy which, along with the eddy kinetic energy, defines the total eddy energy of the system. Florence loses the convectively driven energy production cycle in the storm stage and begins to weaken, while Julia maintains this cycle and becomes a major hurricane. The disruption of the convection in Florence is due to the drying, stabilizing, and vertical shearing effects of an expansive SAL to the north of the storm, effects not present in the Julia case. Consideration is given to the different effects of the SAL on 6-10 day waves (Florence wave) versus 3-5 day waves (Julia wave).

  1. An Examination of Two Pathways to Tropical Cyclogenesis Occurring in Idealized Simulations with a Cloud-Resolving Numerical Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-06-21

    preconditioning of the local environment via diabatic production of multiple small-scale lower tropo- spheric cyclonic potential vorticity (PV...the cyclogenesis is enhanced by the aggregate diabatic heating associated with the VHTs, which produce a net influx of low-level mean angular momentum...parametric model of vertical eddy fluxes in the atmo- sphere, Bound.-Lay. Meteor., 17, 187–202, 1979. Mapes, B. E. and Houze, R. A.: Diabatic

  2. Simulation of high frequency nitrous oxide emissions from irrigated sub-tropical soils using DAYCENT

    Science.gov (United States)

    A unique high temporal frequency dataset from an irrigated cotton-wheat rotation was used to test the agroecosystem model DayCent to simulate daily N2O emissions from sub-tropical vertisols under different irrigation intensities. DayCent was able to simulate the effect of different irrigation intens...

  3. The impact of latent heating on the location, strength and structure of the Tropical Easterly Jet in the Community Atmosphere Model, version 3.1: Aqua-planet simulations

    CERN Document Server

    Rao, Samrat

    2015-01-01

    The Tropical Easterly Jet (TEJ) is a prominent atmospheric circulation feature observed during the Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM). The simulation of TEJ by the Community Atmosphere Model, version 3.1 (CAM-3.1) has been discussed in detail. Although the simulated TEJ replicates many observed features of the jet, the jet maximum is located too far to the west when compared to observation. Orography has minimal impact on the simulated TEJ hence indicating that latent heating is the crucial parameter. A series of aqua-planet experiments with increasing complexity was undertaken to understand the reasons for the extreme westward shift of the TEJ. The aqua-planet simulations show that a single heat source in the deep tropics is inadequate to explain the structure of the observed TEJ. Equatorial heating is necessary to impart a baroclinic structure and a realistic meridional structure. Jet zonal wind speeds are directly related to the magnitude of deep tropical heating. The location of peak zonal wind is influenced by o...

  4. Tropical Cyclones in the GISS ModelE2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Camargo, Suzana J.; Sobel, Adam H.; Del Genio, Anthony; Jonas, Jeffrey A.; Kelley, Maxwell; Lu, Yun; Shaevitz, Daniel; Henderson, Naomi

    2016-01-01

    The authors describe the characteristics of tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the GISS general circulation ModelE2 with a horizontal resolution 1deg x 1deg. Four model simulations are analyzed. In the first, the model is forced with sea surface temperature (SST) from the recent historical climatology. The other three have different idealized climate change simulations, namely (1) a uniform increase of SST by 2 deg., (2) doubling of the CO2 concentration and (3) a combination of the two. These simulations were performed as part of the US Climate Variability and Predictability Program Hurricane Working Group. Diagnostics of standard measures of TC activity are computed from the recent historical climatological SST simulation and compared with the same measures computed from observations. The changes in TC activity in the three idealized climate change simulations, by comparison with that in the historical climatological SST simulation, are also described. Similar to previous results in the literature, the changes in TC frequency in the simulation with a doubling CO2 and an increase in SST are approximately the linear sum of the TC frequency in the other two simulations. However, in contrast with previous results, in these simulations the effects of CO2 and SST on TC frequency oppose each other. Large-scale environmental variables associated with TC activity are then analyzed for the present and future simulations. Model biases in the large-scale fields are identified through a comparison with ERA-Interim reanalysis. Changes in the environmental fields in the future climate simulations are shown and their association with changes in TC activity discussed.

  5. Tropical Cyclones in the GISS ModelE2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Camargo, Suzana J.; Sobel, Adam H.; Del Genio, Anthony; Jonas, Jeffrey A.; Kelley, Maxwell; Lu, Yun; Shaevitz, Daniel; Henderson, Naomi

    2016-01-01

    The authors describe the characteristics of tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the GISS general circulation ModelE2 with a horizontal resolution 1deg x 1deg. Four model simulations are analyzed. In the first, the model is forced with sea surface temperature (SST) from the recent historical climatology. The other three have different idealized climate change simulations, namely (1) a uniform increase of SST by 2 deg., (2) doubling of the CO2 concentration and (3) a combination of the two. These simulations were performed as part of the US Climate Variability and Predictability Program Hurricane Working Group. Diagnostics of standard measures of TC activity are computed from the recent historical climatological SST simulation and compared with the same measures computed from observations. The changes in TC activity in the three idealized climate change simulations, by comparison with that in the historical climatological SST simulation, are also described. Similar to previous results in the literature, the changes in TC frequency in the simulation with a doubling CO2 and an increase in SST are approximately the linear sum of the TC frequency in the other two simulations. However, in contrast with previous results, in these simulations the effects of CO2 and SST on TC frequency oppose each other. Large-scale environmental variables associated with TC activity are then analyzed for the present and future simulations. Model biases in the large-scale fields are identified through a comparison with ERA-Interim reanalysis. Changes in the environmental fields in the future climate simulations are shown and their association with changes in TC activity discussed.

  6. Tropical cyclones in the GISS ModelE2

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suzana J. Camargo

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available The authors describe the characteristics of tropical cyclone (TC activity in the GISS general circulation ModelE2 with a horizontal resolution 1°×1°. Four model simulations are analysed. In the first, the model is forced with sea surface temperature (SST from the recent historical climatology. The other three have different idealised climate change simulations, namely (1 a uniform increase of SST by 2 degrees, (2 doubling of the CO2 concentration and (3 a combination of the two. These simulations were performed as part of the US Climate Variability and Predictability Program Hurricane Working Group. Diagnostics of standard measures of TC activity are computed from the recent historical climatological SST simulation and compared with the same measures computed from observations. The changes in TC activity in the three idealised climate change simulations, by comparison with that in the historical climatological SST simulation, are also described. Similar to previous results in the literature, the changes in TC frequency in the simulation with a doubling CO2 and an increase in SST are approximately the linear sum of the TC frequency in the other two simulations. However, in contrast with previous results, in these simulations the effects of CO2 and SST on TC frequency oppose each other. Large-scale environmental variables associated with TC activity are then analysed for the present and future simulations. Model biases in the large-scale fields are identified through a comparison with ERA-Interim reanalysis. Changes in the environmental fields in the future climate simulations are shown and their association with changes in TC activity discussed.

  7. Sensitivity of the Tropical Atmospheric Energy Balance to ENSO-Related SST Changes: Comparison of Climate Model Simulations to Observed Responses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robertson, Franklin R.; Fitzjarrald, Dan; Marshall, Susan; Oglesby, Robert; Roads, John; Arnold, James E. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    This paper focuses on how fresh water and radiative fluxes over the tropical oceans change during ENSO warm and cold events and how these changes affect the tropical energy balance. At present, ENSO remains the most prominent known mode of natural variability at interannual time scales. While this natural perturbation to climate is quite distinct from possible anthropogenic changes in climate, adjustments in the tropical water and energy budgets during ENSO may give insight into feedback processes involving water vapor and cloud feedbacks. Although great advances have been made in understanding this phenomenon and realizing prediction skill over the past decade, our ability to document the coupled water and energy changes observationally and to represent them in climate models seems far from settled (Soden, 2000 J Climate). In a companion paper we have presented observational analyses, based principally on space-based measurements which document systematic changes in rainfall, evaporation, and surface and top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiative fluxes. Here we analyze several contemporary climate models run with observed SSTs over recent decades and compare SST-induced changes in radiation, precipitation, evaporation, and energy transport to observational results. Among these are the NASA / NCAR Finite Volume Model, the NCAR Community Climate Model, the NCEP Global Spectral Model, and the NASA NSIPP Model. Key disagreements between model and observational results noted in the recent literature are shown to be due predominantly to observational shortcomings. A reexamination of the Langley 8-Year Surface Radiation Budget data reveals errors in the SST surface longwave emission due to biased SSTs. Subsequent correction allows use of this data set along with ERBE TOA fluxes to infer net atmospheric radiative heating. Further analysis of recent rainfall algorithms provides new estimates for precipitation variability in line with interannual evaporation changes inferred from

  8. Tropical vegetation response to Heinrich Event 1 as simulated with the UVic ESCM and CCSM3

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Handiani

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available We investigated changes in tropical climate and vegetation cover associated with abrupt climate change during Heinrich Event 1 (HE1, ca. 17.5 ka BP using two different global climate models: the University of Victoria Earth System-Climate Model (UVic ESCM and the Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3. Tropical South American and African pollen records suggest that the cooling of the North Atlantic Ocean during HE1 influenced the tropics through a southward shift of the rain belt. In this study, we simulated the HE1 by applying a freshwater perturbation to the North Atlantic Ocean. The resulting slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation was followed by a temperature seesaw between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, as well as a southward shift of the tropical rain belt. The shift and the response pattern of the tropical vegetation around the Atlantic Ocean were more pronounced in the CCSM3 than in the UVic ESCM simulation. For tropical South America, opposite changes in tree and grass cover were modeled around 10° S in the CCSM3 but not in the UVic ESCM. In tropical Africa, the grass cover increased and the tree cover decreased around 15° N in the UVic ESCM and around 10° N in the CCSM3. In the CCSM3 model, the tree and grass cover in tropical Southeast Asia responded to the abrupt climate change during the HE1, which could not be found in the UVic ESCM. The biome distributions derived from both models corroborate findings from pollen records in southwestern and equatorial western Africa as well as northeastern Brazil.

  9. Large-Eddy Simulation of Maritime Deep Tropical Convection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khairoutdinov, Marat F.; Krueger, Steve K.; Moeng, Chin-Hoh; Bogenschutz, Peter A.; Randall, David A.

    2009-04-01

    This study represents an attempt to apply Large-Eddy Simulation (LES) resolution to simulate deep tropical convection in near equilibrium for 24 hours over an area of about 205 × 205 km2, which is comparable to that of a typical horizontal grid cell in a global climate model. The simulation is driven by large-scale thermodynamic tendencies derived from mean conditions during the GATE Phase III field experiment. The LES uses 2048 × 2048 × 256 grid points with horizontal grid spacing of 100 m and vertical grid spacing ranging from 50 m in the boundary layer to 100 m in the free troposphere. The simulation reaches a near equilibrium deep convection regime in 12 hours. The simulated vertical cloud distribution exhibits a tri-modal vertical distribution of deep, middle and shallow clouds similar to that often observed in Tropics. A sensitivity experiment in which cold pools are suppressed by switching off the evaporation of precipitation results in much lower amounts of shallow and congestus clouds. Unlike the benchmark LES where the new deep clouds tend to appear along the edges of spreading cold pools, the deep clouds in the no-cold-pool experiment tend to reappear at the sites of the previous deep clouds and tend to be surrounded by extensive areas of sporadic shallow clouds. The vertical velocity statistics of updraft and downdraft cores below 6 km height are compared to aircraft observations made during GATE. The comparison shows generally good agreement, and strongly suggests that the LES simulation can be used as a benchmark to represent the dynamics of tropical deep convection on scales ranging from large turbulent eddies to mesoscale convective systems. The effect of horizontal grid resolution is examined by running the same case with progressively larger grid sizes of 200, 400, 800, and 1600 m. These runs show a reasonable agreement with the benchmark LES in statistics such as convective available potential energy, convective inhibition, cloud fraction

  10. Large-eddy simulation of maritime deep tropical convection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter A Bogenschutz

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available This study represents an attempt to apply Large-Eddy Simulation (LES resolution to simulate deep tropical convection in near equilibrium for 24 hours over an area of about 205 x 205 km2, which is comparable to that of a typical horizontal grid cell in a global climate model. The simulation is driven by large-scale thermodynamic tendencies derived from mean conditions during the GATE Phase III field experiment. The LES uses 2048 x 2048 x 256 grid points with horizontal grid spacing of 100 m and vertical grid spacing ranging from 50 m in the boundary layer to 100 m in the free troposphere. The simulation reaches a near equilibrium deep convection regime in 12 hours. The simulated vertical cloud distribution exhibits a trimodal vertical distribution of deep, middle and shallow clouds similar to that often observed in Tropics. A sensitivity experiment in which cold pools are suppressed by switching off the evaporation of precipitation results in much lower amounts of shallow and congestus clouds. Unlike the benchmark LES where the new deep clouds tend to appear along the edges of spreading cold pools, the deep clouds in the no-cold-pool experiment tend to reappear at the sites of the previous deep clouds and tend to be surrounded by extensive areas of sporadic shallow clouds. The vertical velocity statistics of updraft and downdraft cores below 6 km height are compared to aircraft observations made during GATE. The comparison shows generally good agreement, and strongly suggests that the LES simulation can be used as a benchmark to represent the dynamics of tropical deep convection on scales ranging from large turbulent eddies to mesoscale convective systems. The effect of horizontal grid resolution is examined by running the same case with progressively larger grid sizes of 200, 400, 800, and 1600 m. These runs show a reasonable agreement with the benchmark LES in statistics such as convective available potential energy, convective inhibition

  11. Sensitivity of the Simulated Tropical Intraseasonal Oscillation to Cumulus Parameterizations

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    JIA Xiaolong; LI Chongyin

    2008-01-01

    The sensitivity of the simulated tropical intraseasonal oscillation or MJO (Madden and Julian oscilla tion)to different cumulus parameterizations is studied by using an atmospheric general circulation model (GCM)-SAMIL(Spectral Atmospheric Model of IAP LASG).Results show that performance of the model in simulating the MJO alters widely when using two different cumulus parameterization schemes-the moist convective adjustment scheme(MCA)and the Zhang-McFarlane(ZM)scheme.MJO simulated by the MCA scheme was found to be more realistic than that simulated by the ZM scheme.MJO produced by the ZM scheme is too weak and shows little propagation characteristics.Weak moisture convergence at low levels simulated by the ZM scheme is not enough to maintain the structure and the eastward propagation of the oscillation.These two cumulus schemes produced different vertical structures of the heating profile.The heating profile produced by the ZM scheme is nearly uniform with height and the heating is too weak compared to that produced by the MCA,which maybe contributes greatly to the failure of simulating a reasonable MJO.Comparing the simulated MJO by these two schemes indicate that the MJO simulated by the GCM is highly sensitive to cumulus parameterizations implanted in.The diabatic heating profile plays an important role in the performance of the GCM.Three sensitivity experiments with different heating profiles are designed in which modified heating profiles peak respectively in the upper troposphere(UH), middle troposphere(MH),and lower troposphere(LH).Both the LH run and the MH run produce eastward propagating signals on the intraseasonal timescale,while it is interesting that the intraseasonal timescale signals produced by the UH run propagate westward.It indicates that a realistic intraseasonal oscillation is more prone to be excited when the maximum heating concentrates in the middle-low levels,especially in the middle levels,while westward propagating disturbances axe more

  12. How do uncertainties in NCEP R2 and CFSR surface fluxes impact tropical ocean simulations?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wen, Caihong; Xue, Yan; Kumar, Arun; Behringer, David; Yu, Lisan

    2017-01-01

    NCEP/DOE reanalysis (R2) and Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) surface fluxes are widely used by the research community to understand surface flux climate variability, and to drive ocean models as surface forcings. However, large discrepancies exist between these two products, including (1) stronger trade winds in CFSR than in R2 over the tropical Pacific prior 2000; (2) excessive net surface heat fluxes into ocean in CFSR than in R2 with an increase in difference after 2000. The goals of this study are to examine the sensitivity of ocean simulations to discrepancies between CFSR and R2 surface fluxes, and to assess the fidelity of the two products. A set of experiments, where an ocean model was driven by a combination of surface flux components from R2 and CFSR, were carried out. The model simulations were contrasted to identify sensitivity to different component of the surface fluxes in R2 and CFSR. The accuracy of the model simulations was validated against the tropical moorings data, altimetry SSH and SST reanalysis products. Sensitivity of ocean simulations showed that temperature bias difference in the upper 100 m is mostly sensitive to the differences in surface heat fluxes, while depth of 20 °C (D20) bias difference is mainly determined by the discrepancies in momentum fluxes. D20 simulations with CFSR winds agree with observation well in the western equatorial Pacific prior 2000, but have large negative bias similar to those with R2 winds after 2000, partly because easterly winds over the central Pacific were underestimated in both CFSR and R2. On the other hand, the observed temperature variability is well reproduced in the tropical Pacific by simulations with both R2 and CFSR fluxes. Relative to the R2 fluxes, the CFSR fluxes improve simulation of interannual variability in all three tropical oceans to a varying degree. The improvement in the tropical Atlantic is most significant and is largely attributed to differences in surface winds.

  13. The temporal and spatial characteristics of surrogate tropical cyclones from a multi-millenial simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hunt, B.G.; Watterson, I.G. [CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, PO Box 1, Aspendale (Australia)

    2010-04-15

    Output from a simulation with the CSIRO Mark 2 climatic model has been used to investigate the secular variability of tropical cyclone formation over the globe using Gray's Seasonal Genesis Parameter. This simulation differs from previous surrogate studies in using a coupled atmospheric-oceanic model, instead of specified sea surface temperatures, as well as being of multi-millenial duration, compared with decadal length simulations used elsewhere. Mean climatological values for each season for a 5,000-year period indicate that the model replicated the broad patterns of spatial and temporal variability. Results are presented in some detail for three regions, the southwest and northwest Pacific Oceans and the low latitude North Atlantic Ocean. A marked range of temporal variabilities of surrogate tropical cyclone numbers was obtained in the simulation, possibly indicating that the present, observed increase in these numbers may not be outside that attributable to natural variability. The component terms of the Seasonal Genesis Parameter permit the contribution of individual climatic terms to the generation of tropical cyclones to be identified. This approach highlighted the important role of relative vorticity and relative humidity, in addition to the governing influence of vertical wind shear. The remote influence of ENSO, versus that of local sea surface temperature anomalies, on surrogate tropical cyclone numbers was examined and revealed different outcomes depending on the region under consideration. The global total of surrogate tropical cyclone numbers exhibited noticeable interannual variability. The simulation reproduced most of the observed correlations between tropical cyclones and relevant climatic variables, but many of the correlations were not stable within the 5,000-year time series used. This suggests that observed correlations based on, typically, 100-years or less of data may not be representative of possible future outcomes. With minor

  14. The temporal and spatial characteristics of surrogate tropical cyclones from a multi-millenial simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunt, B. G.; Watterson, I. G.

    2010-04-01

    Output from a simulation with the CSIRO Mark 2 climatic model has been used to investigate the secular variability of tropical cyclone formation over the globe using Gray’s Seasonal Genesis Parameter. This simulation differs from previous surrogate studies in using a coupled atmospheric-oceanic model, instead of specified sea surface temperatures, as well as being of multi-millenial duration, compared with decadal length simulations used elsewhere. Mean climatological values for each season for a 5,000-year period indicate that the model replicated the broad patterns of spatial and temporal variability. Results are presented in some detail for three regions, the southwest and northwest Pacific Oceans and the low latitude North Atlantic Ocean. A marked range of temporal variabilities of surrogate tropical cyclone numbers was obtained in the simulation, possibly indicating that the present, observed increase in these numbers may not be outside that attributable to natural variability. The component terms of the Seasonal Genesis Parameter permit the contribution of individual climatic terms to the generation of tropical cyclones to be identified. This approach highlighted the important role of relative vorticity and relative humidity, in addition to the governing influence of vertical wind shear. The remote influence of ENSO, versus that of local sea surface temperature anomalies, on surrogate tropical cyclone numbers was examined and revealed different outcomes depending on the region under consideration. The global total of surrogate tropical cyclone numbers exhibited noticeable interannual variability. The simulation reproduced most of the observed correlations between tropical cyclones and relevant climatic variables, but many of the correlations were not stable within the 5,000-year time series used. This suggests that observed correlations based on, typically, 100-years or less of data may not be representative of possible future outcomes. With minor

  15. A High Resolution Nonhydrostatic Tropical Atmospheric Model and Its Performance

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SHEN Xueshun; Akimasa SUMI

    2005-01-01

    A high resolution nonhydrostatic tropical atmospheric model is developed by using a ready-made regional atmospheric modeling system. The motivation is to investigate the convective activities associated with the tropical intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) through a cloud resolving calculation. Due to limitations in computing resources, a 2000 km×2000 km region covering the forefront of an ISO-related westerly is selected as the model domain, in which a cloud-resolving integration with a 5-km horizontal resolution is conducted. The results indicate the importance of stratus-cumulus interactions in the organization of the cloud clusters embedded in the ISO. In addition, comparative integrations with 2-km and 5-km grid sizes are conducted, which suggest no distinctive differences between the two cases although some finer structures of convections are discernible in the 2-km case. The significance of this study resides in supplying a powerful tool for investigating tropical cloud activities without the controversy of cloud parameterizations. The parallel computing method applied in this model allows sufficient usage of computer memory, which is different from the usual method used when parallelizing regional model. Further simulation for the global tropics with a resolution around 5 km is being prepared.

  16. Interdependence of Model Systematic Biases in the Tropical Atlantic and the Tropical Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demissie, Teferi; Shonk, Jon; Toniazzo, Thomas; Woolnough, Steve Steve; Guilyardi, Eric

    2017-04-01

    The tropical climatology represented in simulations with General Circulation Models (GCMs) is affected by significant systematic biases despite the huge investments in model devlopment over the past 20 years. In this study, coupled seasonal hindcasts performed with EC-Earth and ECMWF System 4 are analyzed to understand the development of systematic biases in the tropical Atlantic and Pacific oceans. These models use similar atmosphere and ocean components (IFS and NEMO, respectively). We focus on hindcasts initialized in February and May. We discuss possible mechanisms for the evolution and origin of rapidly developing systematic biases over the tropical Atlantic during boreal spring. In addition, we look for evidence of the interrelation of systematic biases in the Atlantic and Pacific, and investigate if the errors in one ocean basin affect those in the other. We perform an upper-atmosphere wave analysis by Fourier filtering for certain ranges of temporal frequencies and zonal wavenumbers. Our results identicate common systematic biases in EC-Earth and System 4 purely attributable to the atmosphere component. Biases develop in the Atlantic basin independently of external influences, while a possible effect of such biases on the eastern Pacific is found.

  17. The NOW regional coupled model: Application to the tropical Indian Ocean climate and tropical cyclone activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samson, G.; Masson, S.; Lengaigne, M.; Keerthi, M. G.; Vialard, J.; Pous, S.; Madec, G.; Jourdain, N. C.; Jullien, S.; Menkes, C.; Marchesiello, P.

    2014-09-01

    This paper presents the NOW regional coupled ocean-atmosphere model built from the NEMO ocean and WRF atmospheric numerical models. This model is applied to the tropical Indian Ocean, with the oceanic and atmospheric components sharing a common ¼° horizontal grid. Long experiments are performed over the 1990-2009 period using the Betts-Miller-Janjic (BMJ) and Kain-Fritsch (KF) cumulus parameterizations. Both simulations produce a realistic distribution of seasonal rainfall and a realistic northward seasonal migration of monsoon rainfall over the Indian subcontinent. At subseasonal time scales, the model reasonably reproduces summer monsoon active and break phases, although with underestimated rainfall and surface wind signals. Its relatively high resolution results in realistic spatial and seasonal distributions of tropical cyclones, but it fails to reproduce the strongest observed cyclone categories. At interannual time scales, the model reproduces the observed variability associated with the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the delayed basin-wide warming/cooling induced by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The timing of IOD occurrence in the model generally matches that of the observed events, confirming the influence of ENSO on the IOD development (through the effect of lateral boundary conditions in our simulations). Although the KF and BMJ simulations share a lot in common, KF strongly overestimates rainfall at all time scales. KF also overestimates the number of simulated cyclones by a factor two, while simulating stronger events (up to 55 m s-1) compared to BMJ (up to 40 m s-1). These results could be related to an overly active cumulus parameterization in KF.

  18. Tropical Cyclone Wind Characteristics for the Bangladesh Coast Using Monte Carlo Simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Islam, T.; Peterson, R. E.

    The aim of this study is to understand the characteristics of landfalling tropical cyclones along the coast of Bangladesh by estimating the maximum wind speed and the maximum surge height in different locations during cyclone landfall. Using the Monte Carlo simulation procedure, 1000 simulated storms are generated for each site based on the historical inputs. The modified Holland wind field model is used to obtain the horizontal winds. A simple bathystrophic storm surge model is used in the simulation that gives maximum surge height for the locations to be struck by a simulated storm. Finally, the return periods of maximum wind speeds at different locations are calculated which provide the design wind speed for structures in coastal areas. The wind, surge and return period information can be utilized in different mitigation measures against tropical cyclones in Bangladesh such as devising a standard building code for the coastal areas and to improve the basic wind speed map of Bangladesh.

  19. A Simple Method for Simulating Wind Profiles in the Boundary Layer of Tropical Cyclones

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bryan, George H.; Worsnop, Rochelle P.; Lundquist, Julie K.; Zhang, Jun A.

    2016-11-01

    A method to simulate characteristics of wind speed in the boundary layer of tropical cyclones in an idealized manner is developed and evaluated. The method can be used in a single-column modelling set-up with a planetary boundary-layer parametrization, or within large-eddy simulations (LES). The key step is to include terms in the horizontal velocity equations representing advection and centrifugal acceleration in tropical cyclones that occurs on scales larger than the domain size. Compared to other recently developed methods, which require two input parameters (a reference wind speed, and radius from the centre of a tropical cyclone) this new method also requires a third input parameter: the radial gradient of reference wind speed. With the new method, simulated wind profiles are similar to composite profiles from dropsonde observations; in contrast, a classic Ekman-type method tends to overpredict inflow-layer depth and magnitude, and two recently developed methods for tropical cyclone environments tend to overpredict near-surface wind speed. When used in LES, the new technique produces vertical profiles of total turbulent stress and estimated eddy viscosity that are similar to values determined from low-level aircraft flights in tropical cyclones. Temporal spectra from LES produce an inertial subrange for frequencies >/~0.1 Hz, but only when the horizontal grid spacing >/~20 m.

  20. A Simple Method for Simulating Wind Profiles in the Boundary Layer of Tropical Cyclones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bryan, George H.; Worsnop, Rochelle P.; Lundquist, Julie K.; Zhang, Jun A.

    2017-03-01

    A method to simulate characteristics of wind speed in the boundary layer of tropical cyclones in an idealized manner is developed and evaluated. The method can be used in a single-column modelling set-up with a planetary boundary-layer parametrization, or within large-eddy simulations (LES). The key step is to include terms in the horizontal velocity equations representing advection and centrifugal acceleration in tropical cyclones that occurs on scales larger than the domain size. Compared to other recently developed methods, which require two input parameters (a reference wind speed, and radius from the centre of a tropical cyclone) this new method also requires a third input parameter: the radial gradient of reference wind speed. With the new method, simulated wind profiles are similar to composite profiles from dropsonde observations; in contrast, a classic Ekman-type method tends to overpredict inflow-layer depth and magnitude, and two recently developed methods for tropical cyclone environments tend to overpredict near-surface wind speed. When used in LES, the new technique produces vertical profiles of total turbulent stress and estimated eddy viscosity that are similar to values determined from low-level aircraft flights in tropical cyclones. Temporal spectra from LES produce an inertial subrange for frequencies ≳ 0.1 Hz, but only when the horizontal grid spacing ≲ 20 m.

  1. Simulated sensitivity of the tropical climate to extratropical thermal forcing: tropical SSTs and African land surface

    Science.gov (United States)

    Talento, Stefanie; Barreiro, Marcelo

    2016-08-01

    This study investigates the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) response to extratropical thermal forcing applied to an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to slab ocean and land models. We focus on the relative roles of the atmosphere, tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and continental surface temperatures in the ITCZ response to the imposed forcing. The forcing consists of cooling in one hemisphere and warming in the other poleward of 40°, with zero global average. Three sets of experiments are performed: in the first the slab ocean and land models are applied globally; in the second the tropical SSTs are kept fixed while the slab land model is applied globally; in the third, in addition, surface temperatures over Africa are kept fixed. Realistic boundary surface conditions are used. We find that the ITCZ shifts towards the warmer hemisphere and that the stronger the forcing, the larger the shift. When the constraint of fixed tropical SST is imposed we find that the ITCZ response is strongly weakened, but it is still not negligible in particular over the Atlantic Ocean and Africa where the precipitation anomalies are of the order of 20 and 60 %, respectively, of the magnitude obtained without the SST restriction. Finally, when the constraint of the African surface temperature is incorporated we find that the ITCZ response completely vanishes, indicating that the ITCZ response to the extratropical forcing is not possible just trough purely atmospheric processes, but needs the involvement of either the tropical SST or the continental surface temperatures. The clear-sky longwave radiation feedback is highlighted as the main physical mechanism operating behind the land-based extratropical to tropical communication.

  2. RCCM2-BATS model over tropical South America: Applications to tropical deforestation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hahmann, A.N.; Dickinson, R.E. [Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ (United States)

    1997-08-01

    A multiyear simulation of the global climate uses a revised version of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate Model Version 2 (CCM2) coupled to the Biosphere-Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (BATS). It is compared with global and rain gauge precipitation climatologies to evaluate precipitation fields and European Centre for Medium-Range Forecasts analyses to evaluate the atmospheric circulation. The near-surface climate is compared with data from Amazonian field campaigns. The model simulation of the South American climate agrees closely with the observational record and is much improved from past simulations with previous versions of the NCAR Community Climate model over this portion of the Tropics. The model is then used to study the local and regional response to tropical deforestation over Amazonia. In addition to the standard deforestation forcing, consisting mainly of increased albedo and decreased roughness length, two additional sensitivity experiments were conducted to assess the individual contributions from these forcings to the deforestation changes. The standard deforestation simulation shows slight increases in annually averaged surface temperature (+1{degrees}C) and reductions in annually averaged precipitation and evaporation (-363 and -149 mm yr{sup -1}, respectively). As expected, increases in surface albedo over Amazonia produce a reduction in net downward solar radiation at the surface and consequently a reduction in net surface radiation and surface latent heat flux. The roughness decrease, on the other hand, reduces the surface latent heat fluxes through decreases in the surface drag coefficient. The regional changes in moisture convergence and precipitation during the Amazonian wet season display a shift in the area of maximum precipitation rather than an overall decrease over the deforested area. 45 refs., 16 figs., 4 tabs.

  3. A statistical assessment of tropical cyclone activity in atmospheric general circulation models

    OpenAIRE

    Suzana J. Camargo; Barnston, Anthony G; Zebiak, Stephen E.

    2005-01-01

    The properties of tropical cyclones in three low-resolution atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) in seven ocean basins are discussed. The models are forced by prescribed, observed sea surface temperatures over a period of 40 yr, and their simulations of tropical cyclone activity are compared with observations. The model cyclone characteristics considered include genesis position, number of cyclones per year, seasonality, accumulated cyclone energy, track locations, and number of sto...

  4. A modelling approach for simulation of water and carbon dioxide exchange between multi-species tropical rain forest and the atmosphere

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olchev, A.; Ibrom, Andreas; Ross, T.

    2008-01-01

    An one-dimensional process-based SVAT model (Mixfor-SVAT) was developed to describe energy, water and carbon dioxide exchanges between vegetation canopy and the atmosphere at a local scale. Simulation of the energy, water and CO2 fluxes in Mixfor-SVAT is based on aggregated description......, precipitation rate and global radiation) at some height above a plant canopy within the atmospheric surface layer. For simulation of exchange processes within a multi-specific forest stand Mixfor-SVAT uses both averaged and species specific biophysical parameters of the trees describing their structure (e...

  5. Coarse, intermediate and high resolution numerical simulations of the transition of a tropical wave critical layer to a tropical storm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montgomery, M. T.; Wang, Z.; Dunkerton, T. J.

    2010-11-01

    Recent work has hypothesized that tropical cyclones in the deep Atlantic and eastern Pacific basins develop from within the cyclonic Kelvin cat's eye of a tropical easterly wave critical layer located equatorward of the easterly jet axis. The cyclonic critical layer is thought to be important to tropical cyclogenesis because its cat's eye provides (i) a region of cyclonic vorticity and weak deformation by the resolved flow, (ii) containment of moisture entrained by the developing flow and/or lofted by deep convection therein, (iii) confinement of mesoscale vortex aggregation, (iv) a predominantly convective type of heating profile, and (v) maintenance or enhancement of the parent wave until the developing proto-vortex becomes a self-sustaining entity and emerges from the wave as a tropical depression. This genesis sequence and the overarching framework for describing how such hybrid wave-vortex structures become tropical depressions/storms is likened to the development of a marsupial infant in its mother's pouch, and for this reason has been dubbed the "marsupial paradigm". Here we conduct the first multi-scale test of the marsupial paradigm in an idealized setting by revisiting the Kurihara and Tuleya problem examining the transformation of an easterly wave-like disturbance into a tropical storm vortex using the WRF model. An analysis of the evolving winds, equivalent potential temperature, and relative vertical vorticity is presented from coarse (28 km), intermediate (9 km) and high resolution (3.1 km) simulations. The results are found to support key elements of the marsupial paradigm by demonstrating the existence of a rotationally dominant region with minimal strain/shear deformation near the center of the critical layer pouch that contains strong cyclonic vorticity and high saturation fraction. This localized region within the pouch serves as the "attractor" for an upscale "bottom up" development process while the wave pouch and proto-vortex move together

  6. Coarse, intermediate and high resolution numerical simulations of the transition of a tropical wave critical layer to a tropical storm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. T. Montgomery

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available Recent work has hypothesized that tropical cyclones in the deep Atlantic and eastern Pacific basins develop from within the cyclonic Kelvin cat's eye of a tropical easterly wave critical layer located equatorward of the easterly jet axis. The cyclonic critical layer is thought to be important to tropical cyclogenesis because its cat's eye provides (i a region of cyclonic vorticity and weak deformation by the resolved flow, (ii containment of moisture entrained by the developing flow and/or lofted by deep convection therein, (iii confinement of mesoscale vortex aggregation, (iv a predominantly convective type of heating profile, and (v maintenance or enhancement of the parent wave until the developing proto-vortex becomes a self-sustaining entity and emerges from the wave as a tropical depression. This genesis sequence and the overarching framework for describing how such hybrid wave-vortex structures become tropical depressions/storms is likened to the development of a marsupial infant in its mother's pouch, and for this reason has been dubbed the "marsupial paradigm".

    Here we conduct the first multi-scale test of the marsupial paradigm in an idealized setting by revisiting the Kurihara and Tuleya problem examining the transformation of an easterly wave-like disturbance into a tropical storm vortex using the WRF model. An analysis of the evolving winds, equivalent potential temperature, and relative vertical vorticity is presented from coarse (28 km, intermediate (9 km and high resolution (3.1 km simulations. The results are found to support key elements of the marsupial paradigm by demonstrating the existence of a rotationally dominant region with minimal strain/shear deformation near the center of the critical layer pouch that contains strong cyclonic vorticity and high saturation fraction. This localized region within the pouch serves as the "attractor" for an upscale "bottom up" development process while the wave

  7. Intermediate and high resolution numerical simulations of the transition of a tropical wave critical layer to a tropical storm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. J. Dunkerton

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Recent work has hypothesized that tropical cyclones in the deep Atlantic and eastern Pacific basins develop from the cyclonic Kelvin cat's eye of a tropical easterly wave critical layer located equatorward of the easterly jet axis that typifies the trade wind belt. The cyclonic critical layer is thought to be important to tropical cyclogenesis because its cat's eye provides (i a region of cyclonic vorticity and weak deformation by the resolved flow, (ii containment of moisture entrained by the developing flow and/or lofted by deep convection therein, (iii confinement of mesoscale vortex aggregation, (iv a predominantly convective type of heating profile, and (v maintenance or enhancement of the parent wave until the developing proto-vortex becomes a self-sustaining entity and emerges from the wave as a tropical depression. This genesis sequence and the overarching framework for describing how such hybrid wave-vortex structures become tropical depressions/storms is likened to the development of a marsupial infant in its mother's pouch, and for this reason has been dubbed the "marsupial paradigm".

    Here we conduct the first multi-scale test of the marsupial paradigm in an idealized setting by revisiting the problem of the transformation of an easterly wave-like disturbance into a tropical storm vortex using the WRF model. An analysis of the evolving winds, equivalent potential temperature, and relative vertical vorticity is presented from coarse (28 km and high resolution (3.1 km simulations. The results are found to support key elements of the marsupial paradigm by demonstrating the existence of a vorticity dominant region with minimal strain/shear deformation within the critical layer pouch that contains strong cyclonic vorticity and high saturation fraction. This localized region within the pouch serves as the "attractor" for an upscale "bottom up" development process while the wave pouch and proto-vortex move together.

  8. Introducing tropical lianas in a vegetation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verbeeck, Hans; De Deurwaerder, Hannes; Brugnera, Manfredo di Procia e.; Krshna Moorthy Paravathi, Sruthi; Pausenberger, Nancy; Roels, Jana; kearsley, elizabeth

    2016-04-01

    Tropical forests are essential components of the earth system and play a critical role for land surface feedbacks to climate change. These forests are currently experiencing large-scale structural changes, including the increase of liana abundance and biomass. This liana proliferation might have large impacts on the carbon cycle of tropical forests. However no single global vegetation model currently accounts for lianas. The TREECLIMBERS project (ERC starting grant) aims to introduce for the first time lianas into a vegetation model. The project attempts to reach this challenging goal by performing a global meta-analysis on liana data and by collecting new data in South American forests. Those new and existing datasets form the basis of a new liana plant functional type (PFT) that will be included in the Ecosystem Demography model (ED2). This presentation will show an overview of the current progress of the TREECLIMBERS project. Liana inventory data collected in French Guiana along a forest disturbance gradient show the relation between liana abundance and disturbance. Xylem water isotope analysis indicates that trees and lianas can rely on different soil water resources. New modelling concepts for liana PFTs will be presented and in-situ leaf gas exchange and sap flow data are used to parameterize water and carbon fluxes for this new PFT. Finally ongoing terrestrial LiDAR observations of liana infested forest will be highlighted.

  9. Numerical Simulation of a Quasi-Tropical Cyclone over the Black Sea

    OpenAIRE

    V. V. Efimov; Shokurov, M. V.; Yarovaya, D. A.

    2009-01-01

    The paper describes results of numerical experiments on the simulation of a mesoscale quasi-tropical cyclone, a rare event for the Black Sea, with the MM5 regional atmospheric circulation model. General characteristics of the cyclone and its evolution and physical formation mechanisms are discussed. The balances of the momentum components have been estimated, and sensitivity experiments have been performed. It is shown that, according to its main physical properties and energy supply mechanis...

  10. The role of phosphorus dynamics in tropical forests – a modeling study using CLM-CNP

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    X. Yang

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Tropical forests play a significant role in the global carbon cycle and global climate. However, tropical carbon cycling and the feedbacks from tropical ecosystems to the climate system remain critical uncertainties in current generation carbon-climate models. One of the major uncertainties comes from the lack of representation of phosphorus (P, the most limiting nutrient in tropical regions. Here we introduce P dynamics and C–N–P interactions into the CLM4-CN model and investigate the role of P cycling in controlling the productivity of tropical ecosystems. The newly developed CLM-CNP model includes all major biological and geochemical processes controlling P availability in soils and the interactions between C, N, and P cycles. Model simulations at sites along a Hawaiian soil chronosequence indicate that the introduction of P limitation greatly improved the model performance at the P-limited site. The model is also able to capture the shift in nutrient limitation along this chronosequence (from N limited to P limited, as shown in the comparison of model simulated plant responses to fertilization with the observed data. Model simulations at Amazonian forest sites show that CLM-CNP is capable of capturing the overall trend in NPP along the P availability gradient. This comparison also suggests a significant interaction between nutrient limitation and land use history. Model experiments under elevated atmospheric CO2 ([CO2] condition suggest that tropical forest responses to increasing [CO2] will interact strongly with changes in the P cycle. We highlight the importance of two feedback pathways (biochemical mineralization and desorption of secondary mineral P that can significantly affect P availability and determine the extent of P limitation in tropical forests under elevated [CO2]. Field experiments with elevated CO2 are therefore needed to help quantify these important feedbacks. Predictive modeling of C–P interactions will have

  11. Long-term regional simulation of tropical cyclones using a Generalized Stochastic Empirical Storm Model: A case study in the Western North Pacific

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nguyen, B.M.

    2015-01-01

    In coastal areas, Tropical Cyclones (TCs) are one of the greatest threats to humanity. Unfortunately, current risk reduction measures are not completely successful in lessening TC's consequences due to the remaining uncertainties in the estimates of key parameters, on which the designs of these

  12. Long-term regional simulation of tropical cyclones using a Generalized Stochastic Empirical Storm Model: A case study in the Western North Pacific

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nguyen, B.M.

    2015-01-01

    In coastal areas, Tropical Cyclones (TCs) are one of the greatest threats to humanity. Unfortunately, current risk reduction measures are not completely successful in lessening TC's consequences due to the remaining uncertainties in the estimates of key parameters, on which the designs of these meas

  13. Two parametric tropical cyclone models for storm surge modeling

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Zhi-li

    2010-01-01

    In this paper,the two parametric tropical cyclone models for storm surge modeling are further developed.The analytical expressions of tangential and radial velocity distribution are derived from the governing momentum equations,based on the general symmetric pressure distribution proposed by Holland and Fujita.On the basis of the data of several tropical cyclones that occurred in East China Ocean,the shape parameter in pressure model is estimated.Finally,the Fred cyclone(typhoon 199417)is calculated,and comparisons of measured and calculated air pressures and wind speed are presented.

  14. The Simulation of the Influenza Transmission Dynamics in Tropical Area and Subtropical Area in East Asia

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YANG Gong-li

    2014-01-01

    The underlying theory of the summer influenza transmission peaks in tropical area and subtropical area in East Asia is still unclear. We built an agent-based model (ABM) to simulate the influenza transmission dynamics. We modeled two main routes of influenza transmission in the model: the aerosol route and the fomite-mediated route. Our results show that the absolute humidity (AH) is strikingly associated with the influenza transmission in different season; Fomite-mediated route particularly plays an important role in influenza transmission, the two-route transmission model can be better used for explaining the summer transmission peaks.

  15. Tropical extra-tropical thermocline water mass exchanges in the Community Climate Model v.3 Part I: the Atlantic Ocean

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. Wainer

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The climatological annual mean tropical-extra-tropical pathways of thermocline waters in the Atlantic Ocean are investigated with the NCAR CCSM numerical coupled model. Results from three numerical experiments are analyzed: Two are fully coupled runs with different spatial resolution (T42 and T85 for the atmospheric component. The third numerical experiment is an ocean-only run forced by NCEP winds and fluxes. Results show that the different atmospheric resolutions have a significant impact on the subduction pathways in the Atlantic because of how the wind field is represented. These simulation results also show that the water subducted at the subtropics reaching the EUC is entirely from the South Atlantic. The coupled model ability to simulate the STCs is discussed.

  16. A Global Climate Model based event set for tropical cyclone risk assessment in the West Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vitolo, Renato; Strachan, Jane; Vidale, Pier Luigi; Stephenson, David; Cook, Ian; Flay, Shaun; Foote, Matthew

    2010-05-01

    We propose a new approach to the creation of a stochastic event set for tropical cyclone risk assessment in West Pacific, for use in the insurance industry in the catastrophe modelling process. The event set is based on both available observational data and a database of tropical cyclones dynamically simulated by a state-of-the-art Global Climate Model. For an initial proof of concept exercise we focus on the West Pacific region: Japan, China and South-East Asia. A database of tropical cyclone tracks is extracted from over 200 years of current climate simulations by HiGEM1.1, a high resolution, coupled ocean-atmosphere Global Climate Model. A bias correction procedure is applied to model the central pressure of the dynamically HiGEM-simulated tropical cyclones in terms of the observed (IBTrACS) distribution of central pressures. The bias-corrected storm track database is statistically sampled and spatially perturbed to produce a 1000 year database of synthetic storms. The proposed approach has several advantages: 1. it is based on a long-term, globally consistent source of dynamically simulated tropical storms under current state of the atmosphere/climate; this compensates reliance on limited and/or inconsistent historical data and provides a much larger sampling for the distribution of the tropical cyclone landfalls; 2. it allows assessment of how large scale natural climate variability may influence regional tropical cyclone activity on multidecadal time scales, and how this may alter risk; 3. it allows to analyse teleconnections in weather extremes, and hence potential accumulation of seemingly unrelated risk; 4. it can be further developed to assess how climate change may affect tropical cyclone risk in the future. Adopting an integrated approach may begin to change the way that weather related risk is understood and assessed in the insurance industry.

  17. A comparative study of chlorophyll-a concentration during different tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal based on measurements and model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pandey, Suchita; Bhagawati, Chirantan; Patel, Ramkrushnbhai; Chakraborty, Arun; Jayanarayanan, Kuttippurath

    2016-04-01

    Chlorophyll-a (chl-a) pigments derived from ocean color can be used as a tool for estimating phytoplankton distribution in the observed oceanic region. This study aims at providing new insights on the variability of chl-a concentration during the occurrences of different cyclones in the Bay of Bengal (BoB). We consider two tropical cyclones of different intensities observed in the BOB; MALA and NILAM. MALA was a cyclonic storm and was formed on 24 April 2006 and dissipated by 30 April 2006. The wind speed and lowest pressure during the MALA have been recorded as 185‒220 Km/h and 950 hp, respectively. Multi-satellite observations are used for chl-a (SeaWiFS, MODIS, OCM-2), winds (QuickSCAT) and sea surface height (SSH) (TOPEX/POSEIDON) analyses in this study. Argo data taken from CORIOLIS (along the cyclone track) are used for temperature and salinity, from which Mixed Layer Depth (MLD), Isothermal Layer Depth (ILD), Barrier Layer Thickness (BLT) is calculated. A case study for MALA cyclone using daily forcing of winds and surface net heat flux in 'Regional Ocean Modeling System' (ROMS) with NPCHLZD (Nitrate, Phytoplankton, Chlorophyll, Zooplankton and Detritus), five components ecosystem model is used for study the chl-a variability during the cyclone. The results show high chl-a concentration along the track as well as in the right side of the track of the cyclone. The daily variations of MLD, BLT, SSH and wind stress curl (WSC) are compared with the daily time series of chl-a for pre-cyclone, during cyclone and post cyclone period. During and after the passage of cyclone average chl-a values increased from 0.2 mg/l to 0.4 mg/l and greater. It shows good agreement with MLD (30‒40 m), negligible BLT and strong WSC (4*10-6n/m3). It implies the strong winds has initiated upwelling, which subsequently triggered phytoplankton bloom during and after the cyclonic storm. The cyclone NILAM was formed on 28 October 2012 and dissipated by 1 November 2012, which had a

  18. Changes in the width of the tropical belt due to simple radiative forcing changes in the GeoMIP simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Nicholas A.; Seidel, Dian J.; Birner, Thomas; Davis, Sean M.; Tilmes, Simone

    2016-08-01

    Model simulations of future climates predict a poleward expansion of subtropical arid climates at the edges of Earth's tropical belt, which would have significant environmental and societal impacts. This expansion may be related to the poleward shift of the Hadley cell edges, where subsidence stabilizes the atmosphere and suppresses precipitation. Understanding the primary drivers of tropical expansion is hampered by the myriad forcing agents in most model projections of future climate. While many previous studies have examined the response of idealized models to simplified climate forcings and the response of comprehensive climate models to more complex climate forcings, few have examined how comprehensive climate models respond to simplified climate forcings. To shed light on robust processes associated with tropical expansion, here we examine how the tropical belt width, as measured by the Hadley cell edges, responds to simplified forcings in the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP). The tropical belt expands in response to a quadrupling of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations and contracts in response to a reduction in the solar constant, with a range of a factor of 3 in the response among nine models. Models with more surface warming and an overall stronger temperature response to quadrupled carbon dioxide exhibit greater tropical expansion, a robust result in spite of inter-model differences in the mean Hadley cell width, parameterizations, and numerical schemes. Under a scenario where the solar constant is reduced to offset an instantaneous quadrupling of carbon dioxide, the Hadley cells remain at their preindustrial width, despite the residual stratospheric cooling associated with elevated carbon dioxide levels. Quadrupled carbon dioxide produces greater tropical belt expansion in the Southern Hemisphere than in the Northern Hemisphere. This expansion is strongest in austral summer and autumn. Ozone depletion has been argued to cause

  19. A model of the tropical Pacific sea surface temperature climatology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seager, Richard; Zebiak, Stephen E.; Cane, Mark A.

    1988-01-01

    A model for the climatological mean sea surface temperature (SST) of the tropical Pacific Ocean is developed. The upper ocean response is computed using a time dependent, linear, reduced gravity model, with the addition of a constant depth frictional surface layer. The full three-dimensional temperature equation and a surface heat flux parameterization that requires specification of only wind speed and total cloud cover are used to evaluate the SST. Specification of atmospheric parameters, such as air temperature and humidity, over which the ocean has direct influence, is avoided. The model simulates the major features of the observed tropical Pacific SST. The seasonal evolution of these features is generally captured by the model. Analysis of the results demonstrates the control the ocean has over the surface heat flux from ocean to atmosphere and the crucial role that dynamics play in determining the mean SST in the equatorial Pacific. The sensitivity of the model to perturbations in the surface heat flux, cloud cover specification, diffusivity, and mixed layer depth is discussed.

  20. Modification of global precipitation data for enhanced hydrologic modeling of tropical montane watersheds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strauch, Michael; Kumar, Rohini; Eisner, Stephanie; Mulligan, Mark; Reinhardt, Julia; Samaniego, Luis; Santini, William; Vetter, Tobias; Friesen, Jan

    2016-04-01

    Global gridded precipitation is an essential driving input for hydrologic models to simulate runoff dynamics in large river basins. However, the data often fail to adequately represent precipitation variability in mountainous regions due to orographic effects and sparse and highly uncertain gauge data. Water balance simulations in tropical montane regions covered by cloud forests are especially challenging because of the additional water input from cloud water interception. The ISI-MIP2 hydrologic model ensemble encountered these problems for Andean sub-basins of the Upper Amazon Basin, where all models significantly underestimated observed runoff. In this paper, we propose simple yet plausible ways to adjust global precipitation data provided by WFDEI, the WATCH Forcing Data methodology applied to ERA-Interim reanalysis, for tropical montane watersheds. The modifications were based on plausible reasoning and freely available tropics-wide data: (i) a high-resolution climatology of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and (ii) the percentage of tropical montane cloud forest cover. Using the modified precipitation data, runoff predictions significantly improved for all hydrologic models considered. The precipitation adjustment methods presented here have the potential to enhance other global precipitation products for hydrologic model applications in the Upper Amazon Basin as well as in other tropical montane watersheds.

  1. Low-latitude gravity wave variances in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere derived from SABER temperature observation and compared with model simulation of waves generated by deep tropical convection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walterscheid, R. L.; Christensen, A. B.

    2016-10-01

    A portion of waves generated by deep convection have scales and amplitudes large enough to be detected by spaceborne instruments. We have analyzed temperature data from the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) instrument on the Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetics Dynamics (TIMED) satellite for subtidal-scale fluctuations. Filtering was applied both vertically and horizontally to extract wave variances. We have analyzed the altitude region between 70 and 130 km and focus on the variances at equatorial latitudes for the altitude region between 70 and 120 km as a function of season, local time intervals, geographical location, and altitude. We find significant variances where convection is particularly prolific (Intertropical Convergence Zone) and at altitudes where wave trapping is known to be favored (e.g., the lower thermospheric duct). The locations of significant variances persist from year to year. Standard deviations of a few tens of kelvins are found. We have also performed simulations of the response to deep tropical convection with a time-dependent, high-resolution fully compressible dynamical model. Our simulations give wave amplitudes that agree reasonably well with the observed amplitudes and show layering that is consistent with the observations. Our main finding is that significant variations seen in TIMED/SABER temperature data have a convective wave source and are concentrated in layers where thermal ducts occur.

  2. Cluster analysis of explicitly and downscaled simulated North Atlantic tropical cyclone tracks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daloz, A.; Camargo, S. J.; Kossin, J. P.; Emanuel, K.

    2013-12-01

    The response of tropical cyclone (TC) activity to climate change is a question of major interest. In order to address this crucial issue, several types of models have been developed in the past, such as Global Climate Models (GCMs). However, the horizontal resolution of those models usually leads to some difficulties in resolving the inner core of TCs and then to properly simulate TC activity. In order to avoid this problem, an alternative tool has been developed by Emanuel (2005). This downscaling technique uses tracks that are initiated by randomly seeding large areas of the tropics with weak vortices. Then the survival of the tracks is based on large-scale environmental conditions produced by GCMs in our case. Here we compare the statistics of TC tracks simulated explicitly in four GCMs to the results of the downscaling technique driven by the four same GCMs in the present and future climates over the North Atlantic basin. Simulated tracks are objectively separated into four groups using a cluster technique (Kossin et al. 2010). The four clusters form zonal and meridional separations of tracks as shown in Figure 1. The meridional separation largely captures the separation between hybrid or baroclinic storms (clusters 1 and 2) and deep tropical systems (clusters 3 and 4), while the zonal separation segregates Gulf of Mexico and Cape Verde storms. Except for the seasonality, the downscaled simulations better capture the general characteristics of the clusters (mean duration of the tracks, intensity...) compared with the explicit simulations, which present strong biases. In the second part of this study, we use three different scenarios to examine the possible future changes of the clusters from the downscaled simulations. We explored the role of a warming of the SST, an increase in carbon dioxide and a combination of both ones. The results show that the response to each scenario is highly varying depending on the simulation examined. References - Kossin, J. P., S

  3. Quasi-Equilibrium States in the Tropics Simulated by a Cloud-Resolving Model. Part 1; Specific Features and Budget Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shie, C.-L.; Tao, W.-K.; Simpson, J.; Sui, C.-H.; Starr, David OC. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    A series of long-term integrations using the two-dimensional Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model were performed by altering imposed environmental components to produce various quasi-equilibrium thermodynamic states. Model results show that the genesis of a warm/wet quasi-equilibrium state is mainly due to either strong vertical wind shear (from nudging) or large surface fluxes (from strong surface winds), while a cold/dry quasi-equilibrium state is attributed to a remarkably weakened mixed-wind shear (from vertical mixing due to deep convection) along with weak surface winds. In general, latent heat flux and net large-scale temperature forcing, the two dominant physical processes, dominate in the beginning stage of the simulated convective systems, then considerably weaken in the final stage, which leads to quasi-equilibrium states. A higher thermodynamic regime is found to produce a larger rainfall amount, as convective clouds are the leading source of rainfall over stratiform clouds even though the former occupy much less area. Moreover, convective clouds are more likely to occur in the presence of strong surface winds (latent heat flux), while stratiform clouds (especially the well-organized type) are favored in conditions with strong wind shear (large-scale forcing). The convective systems, which consist of distinct cloud types due to the variation in horizontal winds, are also found to propagate differently. Accordingly, convective systems with mixed-wind shear generally propagate in the direction of shear, while the system with strong (multidirectional) wind shear propagates in a more complex way. Based on the results from the temperature (Q1) and moisture (Q2) budgets, cloud-scale eddies are found to act as a hydrodynamic 'vehicle' that cascades the heat and moisture vertically. Several other specific features such as atmospheric stability, CAPE, and mass fluxes are also investigated and found to be significantly different between diverse quasi

  4. Next-Generation Tropical Cyclone Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-06-07

    during the same time period, and remains a formidable forecast problem. Advanced statistical prediction models nowadays are able to predict the trend...b) Fig. 2. Time series of COAMPS simulation results of Hurricane Katrina (2005) initialized at 1200 UTC 25 August 2005 of (a) surface maximum...judicial utilization of multi-model ensemble results. In contrast, the TC intensity forecast by numerical models has shown very little improvement

  5. An application of a water assessment and simulation model in the remediation of the eutrophication capacity of a tropical water system: Case study the Lake Obili in Yaounde (Cameroon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ajeagah Gideon A.

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Lake Obili is one of the most famous lakes in the city of Yaounde, Cameroon. Studies carried out in this lake showed that it was hyper eutrophic and therefore it represents a great danger because it is used for aquaculture, tourism and a suitable laboratory for hydro-biological engineering. It is thus very vital to restore this lake ecosystem that singles itself in the heart of the city of Yaounde. This can be greatly facilitated through the use of Water Quality Analysis Simulation Program (WASP of the United State Environmental protection Agency (USEPA. The outcomes of the previous results obtained from EUTRO, a Subroutine of the WASP model specialised in determining eutrophication level have proven that the remediation of this lake can be achievable through the implementation of a wet dredging, the construction and restoration of a wastewater treatment plant, the implementation of environmental incentive policies and the arrangement of the access to the lake. The application of the model is a contribution to the scientific mastery of nutrient flow, lake functioning and possibilities of restauration of highly polluted tropical water bodies subjected to domestic and industrial pollution.

  6. Numerical Simulation of the Dynamics, Cloud Microphysics and Radar Echo Structures of Tropical and Mid-Latitude Convection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Chee Pong

    Tropical convective cells have radar echo patterns that are distinctly different from many mid-latitude convective cells. Also, tropical convection develops associated regions of rain falling from thick anvil clouds. This anvil rain is stratiform and its radar reflectivity pattern contrasts sharply with the radar echoes of the cells. The goal of this study is to use numerical modeling to achieve a better understanding of the dynamical-microphysical interactions that result in the radar echo patterns of tropical and mid-latitude convective cells and of tropical anvil precipitation. A parameterized cloud microphysical scheme with ice-phase processes is coupled first with a one-dimensional time-dependent convective cloud model to simulate tropical and mid-latitude convective cells. Then the microphysical scheme is coupled with a set of prescribed mesoscale anvil cloud vertical motions to simulate the radar reflectivity in anvil precipitation. The simulated tropical convective cells are generally consistent with vertical velocities, and water contents observed by aircraft, although the model vertical velocities may be somewhat higher than those observed. Inclusion of the ice-phase microphysics and in-cloud perturbation pressure are both important in obtaining reasonable cloud dynamics. Tropical clouds of various maximum heights can be produced by varying the cell radius (which is prescribed parameter), cloud base conditions and the environment sounding. With a few exceptions, it was necessary to destabilize the input sounding (by lifting it on an adiabatic chart) prior to using it as input to the model, in order to generate tropical cells greater than 9 km in maximum height. This result indicates the importance of mesoscale forcing prior to the outbreak of deep convection. Warm-rain microphysics are found to account for 40-100% of the rain that falls from the simulated tropical cells. A portion of the rain in deep cells, however, is accounted for by graupel, which

  7. Simulation of Coupled Variability in the Tropical Indian Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhong, A.; Hendon, H. H.; Alves, O.

    2007-12-01

    The coupled ocean-atmosphere variability in the tropical Indian Ocean is investigated by analysing three 100-year integrations of an Australian Bureau of Meteorology coupled seasonal forecast model. In its fully coupled (control) run, ENSO appears to be the leading mechanism that excites Indian Ocean coupled dipole/zonal mode. This involves a feedback between anomalous equatorial easterlies and zonal gradients in SST and rainfall, and is tightly tied to the seasonal cycle. The Indian Ocean zonal mode exhibits a dominant biennial periodicity, which is an amplification of the biennial ENSO mode in this model. In the second run, the local ocean - atmosphere coupling in the Indian Ocean is purposely suppressed by passing the climatological wind stresses derived from the control run to the ocean in the tropical Indian region. The dominant mechanism of SST variation in the Indian Ocean is investigated. A basin-scale surface warm anomaly is developed after the peak of El Niño in the Pacific. It is found that this warming is driven by surface heat flux anomalies that are remotely driven by SST anomalies in the equatorial Pacific. In this run, the biennial periodicity of Indian Ocean zonal mode is significant reduced. In the third run, the ENSO is artificially suppressed by applying climatological surface stresses to the tropical Pacific Ocean. In that case, the Indian Ocean zonal mode still develops in the absence of ENSO but its amplitude is about 20-30% weaker, supporting the notion that the Indian Ocean coupled mode is an intrinsic mode of the variability in the Indian Ocean. Furthermore, the biennial variation, mainly apparent the subsurface, is not amplified at the surface in the absence of ENSO, suggesting that biennial variation in the thermocline itself can not trigger the Indian Ocean zonal mode. Besides ENSO, the model results also suggest that the Indian Ocean coupled mode can be triggered by an equatorward shift of the extratropical ridge/jet, which is

  8. Numerical modelling of methyl iodide in the eastern tropical Atlantic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. Stemmler

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Methyl iodide (CH3I is a volatile organic halogen compound that contributes significantly to the transport of iodine from the ocean to the atmosphere, where it plays an important role in tropospheric chemistry. CH3I is naturally produced and occurs in the global ocean. The processes involved in the formation of CH3I, however, are not fully understood. In fact, there is an ongoing debate whether production by phytoplankton or photochemical degradation of organic matter is the main source term. Here, both the biological and photochemical production mechanisms are considered in a biogeochemical module that is coupled to a one-dimensional water column model for the eastern tropical Atlantic. The model is able to reproduce observed subsurface maxima of CH3I concentrations. But, the dominating source process cannot be clearly identified as subsurface maxima can occur due to both direct biological and photochemical production. However, good agreement between the observed and simulated difference between surface and subsurface methyl iodide concentrations is achieved only when direct biological production is taken into account. Production rates for the biological CH3I source that were derived from published laboratory studies are shown to be inappropriate for explaining CH3I concentrations in the eastern tropical Atlantic.

  9. Properties of convection in the tropics within high-resolution global GEOS-5 simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Putman, W. M.; Suarez, M.; Reale, O.

    2011-12-01

    The NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) has developed a global non-hydrostatic cloud-system resolving capability within the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System global atmospheric model version 5 (GEOS-5) [Putman and Suarez, 2011]. Using a non-hydrostatic finite-volume dynamical core coupled with advances in the moist physics and convective parameterization the model has been used to perform cloud-system resolving experiments at resolutions as fine as 3.5- to 14-km globally. This effort follows the recommendations from the World Modeling Summit for Climate Prediction [Shukla et al, 2009] that the pursuit of global ultra-high resolution climate models should be developed to evaluate global climate change at regional scales. Two-year free running simulations with GEOS-5 at 14- and 10-km globally forced by observed sea surface temperatures and climatological aerosol emissions, know as Nature Runs (NRs), demonstrate the ability of GEOS-5 to predict realistic seasonal variability of tropical cyclone activity in terms of frequency and track location. These NRs provide a satisfactory representation of the motion of the tropical atmosphere on scales ranging from easterly wave propagation to seasonal means. The innovative aspect of these simulations is the capability of representing detailed features of tropical cyclone structure, which are generally seen only in mesoscale regional models. In particular, the scale of the eye and rainbands, the vertical profile of vorticity and divergence, the strength of the thermal warm core, and the intensity of the upper-level outflow, are all realistically represented. These NRs are valuable simulations in assessing the nature of multi-scale tropical convective clusters and their organization within the tropical circulation. Using model derived brightness temperatures and composite global observations the characteristics of these clusters are evaluated with respect to size, temperature and global distribution. The role of

  10. An empirical model of tropical ocean dynamics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Newman, Matthew; Scott, James D. [University of Colorado, CIRES Climate Diagnostics Center, Boulder, CO (United States); NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Physical Sciences Division, Boulder, CO (United States); Alexander, Michael A. [NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Physical Sciences Division, Boulder, CO (United States)

    2011-11-15

    To extend the linear stochastically forced paradigm of tropical sea surface temperature (SST) variability to the subsurface ocean, a linear inverse model (LIM) is constructed from the simultaneous and 3-month lag covariances of observed 3-month running mean anomalies of SST, thermocline depth, and zonal wind stress. This LIM is then used to identify the empirically-determined linear dynamics with physical processes to gauge their relative importance to ENSO evolution. Optimal growth of SST anomalies over several months is triggered by both an initial SST anomaly and a central equatorial Pacific thermocline anomaly that propagates slowly eastward while leading the amplifying SST anomaly. The initial SST and thermocline anomalies each produce roughly half the SST amplification. If interactions between the sea surface and the thermocline are removed in the linear dynamical operator, the SST anomaly undergoes less optimal growth but is also more persistent, and its location shifts from the eastern to central Pacific. Optimal growth is also found to be essentially the result of two stable eigenmodes with similar structure but differing 2- and 4-year periods evolving from initial destructive to constructive interference. Variations among ENSO events could then be a consequence not of changing stability characteristics but of random excitation of these two eigenmodes, which represent different balances between surface and subsurface coupled dynamics. As found in previous studies, the impact of the additional variables on LIM SST forecasts is relatively small for short time scales. Over time intervals greater than about 9 months, however, the additional variables both significantly enhance forecast skill and predict lag covariances and associated power spectra whose closer agreement with observations enhances the validation of the linear model. Moreover, a secondary type of optimal growth exists that is not present in a LIM constructed from SST alone, in which initial SST

  11. Large-Eddy Simulations of Tropical Convective Systems, the Boundary Layer, and Upper Ocean Coupling

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-09-30

    1 DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. Large - Eddy Simulations of Tropical Convective Systems... large eddy simulation (LES) of organized convective systems, which resolve boundary layer eddy scales to mesoscale Report Documentation Page Form...COVERED 00-00-2014 to 00-00-2014 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Large - Eddy Simulations of Tropical Convective Systems, the Boundary Layer, and Upper Ocean

  12. Simulating seasonal tropical cyclone intensities at landfall along the South China coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lok, Charlie C. F.; Chan, Johnny C. L.

    2017-06-01

    A numerical method is developed using a regional climate model (RegCM3) and the Weather Forecast and Research (WRF) model to predict seasonal tropical cyclone (TC) intensities at landfall for the South China region. In designing the model system, three sensitivity tests have been performed to identify the optimal choice of the RegCM3 model domain, WRF horizontal resolution and WRF physics packages. Driven from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System Reanalysis dataset, the model system can produce a reasonable distribution of TC intensities at landfall on a seasonal scale. Analyses of the model output suggest that the strength and extent of the subtropical ridge in the East China Sea are crucial to simulating TC landfalls in the Guangdong and Hainan provinces. This study demonstrates the potential for predicting TC intensities at landfall on a seasonal basis as well as projecting future climate changes using numerical models.

  13. Regional modelling of tracer transport by tropical convection – Part 2: Sensitivity to model resolutions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Arteta

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available The general objective of this series of two papers is to evaluate long duration limited-area simulations with idealised tracers as a possible tool to assess the tracer transport in chemistry-transport models (CTMs. In this second paper we analyse the results of three simulations using different horizontal and vertical resolutions. The goal is to study the impact of the model spatial resolution on convective transport of idealized tracer in the tropics. The reference simulation (REF uses a 60 km horizontal resolution and 300 m vertically in the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere (UTLS. A 20 km horizontal resolution simulation (HR is run as well as a simulation with 850 m vertical resolution in the UTLS (CVR. The simulations are run for one month during the SCOUT-O3 field campaign. Aircraft data, TRMM rainrate estimates and radiosoundings have been used to evaluate the simulations. They show that the HR configuration gives generally a better agreement with the measurements than the REF simulation. The CVR simulation gives generally the worst results. The vertical distribution of the tropospheric tracers for the simulations has a similar shape with a ~15 km altitude maximum for the 6h-lifetime tracer of 0.4 ppbv for REF, 1.2 for HR and 0.04 for CVR. These differences are related to the dynamics produced by the three simulations that leads to larger values of the upward velocities on average for HR and lower for CVR compared to REF. HR simulates more frequent and stronger convection leading to enhanced fluxes compared to REF and higher detrainment levels compared to CVR. HR provides also occasional overshoots over the cold point dynamical barrier. For the stratospheric tracers the differences between the three simulations are small. The diurnal cycle of the fluxes of all tracers in the Tropical Tropopause Layer exhibits a maximum linked to the maximum of convective activity.

  14. Control of shortwave radiation parameterization on tropical climate SST-forced simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crétat, Julien; Masson, Sébastien; Berthet, Sarah; Samson, Guillaume; Terray, Pascal; Dudhia, Jimy; Pinsard, Françoise; Hourdin, Christophe

    2016-09-01

    SST-forced tropical-channel simulations are used to quantify the control of shortwave (SW) parameterization on the mean tropical climate compared to other major model settings (convection, boundary layer turbulence, vertical and horizontal resolutions), and to pinpoint the physical mechanisms whereby this control manifests. Analyses focus on the spatial distribution and magnitude of the net SW radiation budget at the surface (SWnet_SFC), latent heat fluxes, and rainfall at the annual timescale. The model skill and sensitivity to the tested settings are quantified relative to observations and using an ensemble approach. Persistent biases include overestimated SWnet_SFC and too intense hydrological cycle. However, model skill is mainly controlled by SW parameterization, especially the magnitude of SWnet_SFC and rainfall and both the spatial distribution and magnitude of latent heat fluxes over ocean. On the other hand, the spatial distribution of continental rainfall (SWnet_SFC) is mainly influenced by convection parameterization and horizontal resolution (boundary layer parameterization and orography). Physical understanding of the control of SW parameterization is addressed by analyzing the thermal structure of the atmosphere and conducting sensitivity experiments to O3 absorption and SW scattering coefficient. SW parameterization shapes the stability of the atmosphere in two different ways according to whether surface is coupled to atmosphere or not, while O3 absorption has minor effects in our simulations. Over SST-prescribed regions, increasing the amount of SW absorption warms the atmosphere only because surface temperatures are fixed, resulting in increased atmospheric stability. Over land-atmosphere coupled regions, increasing SW absorption warms both atmospheric and surface temperatures, leading to a shift towards a warmer state and a more intense hydrological cycle. This turns in reversal model behavior between land and sea points, with the SW scheme that

  15. Generation of a stochastic precipitation model for the tropical climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ng, Jing Lin; Abd Aziz, Samsuzana; Huang, Yuk Feng; Wayayok, Aimrun; Rowshon, MK

    2017-06-01

    A tropical country like Malaysia is characterized by intense localized precipitation with temperatures remaining relatively constant throughout the year. A stochastic modeling of precipitation in the flood-prone Kelantan River Basin is particularly challenging due to the high intermittency of precipitation events of the northeast monsoons. There is an urgent need to have long series of precipitation in modeling the hydrological responses. A single-site stochastic precipitation model that includes precipitation occurrence and an intensity model was developed, calibrated, and validated for the Kelantan River Basin. The simulation process was carried out separately for each station without considering the spatial correlation of precipitation. The Markov chains up to the fifth-order and six distributions were considered. The daily precipitation data of 17 rainfall stations for the study period of 1954-2013 were selected. The results suggested that second- and third-order Markov chains were suitable for simulating monthly and yearly precipitation occurrences, respectively. The fifth-order Markov chain resulted in overestimation of precipitation occurrences. For the mean, distribution, and standard deviation of precipitation amounts, the exponential, gamma, log-normal, skew normal, mixed exponential, and generalized Pareto distributions performed superiorly. However, for the extremes of precipitation, the exponential and log-normal distributions were better while the skew normal and generalized Pareto distributions tend to show underestimations. The log-normal distribution was chosen as the best distribution to simulate precipitation amounts. Overall, the stochastic precipitation model developed is considered a convenient tool to simulate the characteristics of precipitation in the Kelantan River Basin.

  16. Idealized tropical cyclone simulations of intermediate complexity: A test case for AGCMs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kevin Reed

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available The paper introduces a moist, deterministic test case of intermediate complexity for Atmospheric General Circulation Models (AGCMs. We suggest pairing an AGCM dynamical core with simple physical parameterizations to test the evolution of a single, idealized, initially weak vortex into a tropical cyclone. The initial conditions are based on an initial vortex seed that is in gradient-wind and hydrostatic balance. The suggested ``simple-physics'' package consists of parameterizations of bulk aerodynamic surface fluxes for moisture, sensible heat and momentum, boundary layer diffusion, and large-scale condensation. Such a configuration includes the important driving mechanisms for tropical cyclones, and leads to a rapid intensification of the initial vortex over a forecast period of ten days. The simple-physics test paradigm is not limited to tropical cyclones, and can be universally applied to other flow fields. The physical parameterizations are described in detail to foster model intercomparisons.The characteristics of the intermediate-complexity test case are demonstrated with the help of four hydrostatic dynamical cores that are part of the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM 5 developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR. In particular, these are the Finite-Volume, Spectral Element, and spectral transform Eulerian and semi-Lagrangian dynamical cores that are coupled to the simple-physics suite. The simulations show that despite the simplicity of the physics forcings the models develop the tropical cyclone at horizontal grid spacings of about 55 km and finer. The simple-physics simulations reveal essential differences in the storm's structure and strength due to the choice of the dynamical core. Similar differences are also seen in complex full-physics aqua-planet experiments with CAM 5 which serve as a motivator for this work. The results suggest that differences in complex full-physics simulations can be, at least

  17. The Bjerknes feedback in the tropical Atlantic in CMIP5 models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Deppenmeier, Anna Lena; Haarsma, R.J.; Hazeleger, Wilco

    2016-01-01

    Coupled state-of-the-art general circulation models still perform relatively poorly in simulating tropical Atlantic (TA) climate. To investigate whether lack of air–sea interaction might be responsible for their biases, we investigate the Bjerknes feedback (BF) in the TA, the driver of the domina

  18. Simulations of Severe Tropical Cyclone Nargis over the Bay of Bengal Using RIMES Operational System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raju, P. V. S.; Potty, Jayaraman; Mohanty, U. C.

    2012-10-01

    The Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System (RIMES), an international, intergovernmental organization based in Thailand is engaged in disaster risk reduction over the Asia-Pacific region through early warning information. In this paper, RIMES' customized Weather Research Forecast (WRF) model has been used to evaluate the simulations of cyclone Nargis which hit Myanmar on 2 May 2008, the most deadly severe weather event in the history of Myanmar. The model covers a domain of 35ºE to 145ºE in the east—west direction and 12ºS to 40ºN in the north—south direction in order to cover Asia and east Africa with a resolution of 9 km in the horizontal and 28 vertical levels. The initial and boundary conditions for the simulations were provided by the National Center for Environmental Prediction-Global Forecast System (NCEP-GFS) available at 1º lon/lat resolution. An attempt is being made to critically evaluate the simulation of cyclone Nargis by seven set of simulations in terms of track, intensity and landfall time of the cyclone. The seven sets of model simulations were initialized every 12 h starting from 0000 UTC 28 April to 01 May 2008. Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) precipitation (mm) is used to evaluate the performance of the simulations of heavy rainfall associated with the tropical cyclone. The track and intensity of the simulated cyclone are compared by making use of Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) data sets. The results indicate that the landfall time, the distribution and intensity of the rainfall, pressure and wind field are well simulated as compared with the JTWC estimates. The average landfall track error for all seven simulations was 64 km with an average time error of about 5 h. The average intensity error of central pressure in all the simulations were found out to be approximately 6 hPa more than the JTWC estimates and in the case of wind, the simulations under predicted it by an average of 12 m s-1.

  19. Extra-tropical origin of equatorial Pacific cold bias in climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burls, N.; Muir, L.; Vincent, E. M.; Fedorov, A. V.

    2015-12-01

    General circulation models frequently suffer from a substantial cold bias in equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs). For instance, the majority of the climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) have this particular problem (17 out of the 26 models evaluated in this project). Our study investigates the extent to which these equatorial cold biases are related to mean climate biases generated in the extra-tropics and then communicated to the equator via the oceanic subtropical cells (STCs). With an evident relationship across the CMIP5 models between equatorial SSTs and upper ocean temperatures in the extra-tropical subduction regions, our analysis confirms that cold SST biases within the extra-tropical Pacific translate into a cold equatorial SST bias via the STCs. An assessment of the relationship between these extra-tropical SST biases and surface heat flux components indicates a link to biases in the simulated shortwave fluxes. Further sensitivity studies with a climate model (CESM) in which extra-tropical cloud albedo is systematically varied illustrate the influence of cloud albedo perturbations, not only directly above the oceanic subduction regions but across the extended extra-tropical Pacific, on the equatorial bias. The CESM experiments reveal a quadratic relationship between extra-tropical albedo and the root-mean-square-error in equatorial SSTs - a relationship with which the CMIP5 models generally agree. Thus, our study suggests that one way to improve the equatorial cold bias is to improve the representation of cloud albedo in mid-latitudes.

  20. Climate Change Projection with Reduced Model Systematic Error over Tropic Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keenlyside, Noel; Shen, Mao-Lin; Selten, Frank; Wiegerinck, Wim; Duane, Gregory

    2014-05-01

    The tropical Pacific is considered as a major driver of the global climate system. However, realistic representation of the equatorial Pacific remains a challenge for state-of-the-art global circulation models (GCMs). For example, the multi-model ensemble mean of the CMIP5 historical simulation exhibits large biases of sea surface temperature. Here we construct an interactive model ensemble (SUMO) by coupling two atmospheric GCMs (AGCM) with one ocean GCM (OGCM). Through optimal coupling weights, synchronization of the atmospheric models over tropical Pacific is enhanced and the dynamic and thermodynamic feedback over Pacific of the GCM become realistic. A set of climate change projections is performed with SUMO and results will be contrasted with conventional multi-model scenario simulations and a standard flux corrected model version to identify main differences.

  1. An Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE to Assess the Impact of Doppler Wind Lidar (DWL Measurements on the Numerical Simulation of a Tropical Cyclone

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lei Zhang

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The importance of wind observations has been recognized for many years. However, wind observations—especially three-dimensional global wind measurements—are very limited. A satellite-based Doppler Wind Lidar (DWL is proposed to measure three-dimensional wind profiles using remote sensing techniques. Assimilating these observations into a mesoscale model is expected to improve the performance of the numerical weather prediction (NWP models. In order to examine the potential impact of the DWL three-dimensional wind profile observations on the numerical simulation and prediction of tropical cyclones, a set of observing simulation system experiments (OSSEs is performed using the advanced research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF model and its three-dimensional variational (3DVAR data assimilation system. Results indicate that assimilating the DWL wind observations into the mesoscale numerical model has significant potential for improving tropical cyclone track and intensity forecasts.

  2. Improving NASA's Multiscale Modeling Framework for Tropical Cyclone Climate Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Bo-Wen; Nelson, Bron; Cheung, Samson; Tao, Wei-Kuo

    2013-01-01

    One of the current challenges in tropical cyclone (TC) research is how to improve our understanding of TC interannual variability and the impact of climate change on TCs. Recent advances in global modeling, visualization, and supercomputing technologies at NASA show potential for such studies. In this article, the authors discuss recent scalability improvement to the multiscale modeling framework (MMF) that makes it feasible to perform long-term TC-resolving simulations. The MMF consists of the finite-volume general circulation model (fvGCM), supplemented by a copy of the Goddard cumulus ensemble model (GCE) at each of the fvGCM grid points, giving 13,104 GCE copies. The original fvGCM implementation has a 1D data decomposition; the revised MMF implementation retains the 1D decomposition for most of the code, but uses a 2D decomposition for the massive copies of GCEs. Because the vast majority of computation time in the MMF is spent computing the GCEs, this approach can achieve excellent speedup without incurring the cost of modifying the entire code. Intelligent process mapping allows differing numbers of processes to be assigned to each domain for load balancing. The revised parallel implementation shows highly promising scalability, obtaining a nearly 80-fold speedup by increasing the number of cores from 30 to 3,335.

  3. Simulation modeling and arena

    CERN Document Server

    Rossetti, Manuel D

    2015-01-01

    Emphasizes a hands-on approach to learning statistical analysis and model building through the use of comprehensive examples, problems sets, and software applications With a unique blend of theory and applications, Simulation Modeling and Arena®, Second Edition integrates coverage of statistical analysis and model building to emphasize the importance of both topics in simulation. Featuring introductory coverage on how simulation works and why it matters, the Second Edition expands coverage on static simulation and the applications of spreadsheets to perform simulation. The new edition als

  4. Simulations of tropical cyclogenesis associated with different monsoon trough patterns over the western North Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Xi; Chen, Guanghua; Li, Tim; Ren, Fumin

    2016-08-01

    The numerical simulations of tropical cyclone (TC) genesis during the strong and weak monsoon trough (MT) years, in which meteorological fields are composited, are conducted using advanced research weather research and forecasting model. The simulation results show that both tropical disturbances tend to form in the east of the western North Pacific (WNP) near 160°-170°E during the strong and weak MT years. During the strong MT years, there is a faster formation rate of TC. The eastward-extending MT gradually evolves into a closed monsoon gyre over the WNP during the early stage. The following rapid development of TC can be attributed to the enhanced lower-level southwesterly flows induced by the cross-equatorial currents, enhanced easterly winds, and weak vertical wind shear, which provide a favorable environment for TC genesis. The strengthened large-scale circulation spawns abundant convective updrafts resulting in the aggregation of cyclonic vorticity. In contrast, during the weak MT years, the westward-retreated MT gradually evolves into expansive easterly winds over the WNP. Two episodes of convective updrafts are triggered with a longer interval, and thus lead to a slower TC genesis compared with that during the strong MT years.

  5. Numerical simulation of sea breeze characteristics observed at tropical coastal site, Kalpakkam

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    P Jamima; J Lakshminarasimhan

    2004-06-01

    Sea breeze characteristics around Kalpakkam tropical coastal site are studied using an Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) mesoscale model, which is non-hydrostatic, compressible atmospheric prediction model following the terrain coordinate system. Various options such as surface physics, atmospheric radiation physics, Coriolis force, microphysics, cumulus parameterization and 1.5 level TKE closure scheme for diffusion are included in the model. A joint meteorological field experiment was carried out by IITM-Pune and IGCAR at Kalpakkam by deploying state-of-the-art sensors and tether balloon systems for observing the height profiles of meteorological parameters. The data obtained from the field experiment are used here to compare the results from numerical simulations. From the simulated results, it is seen that duration of the sea breeze is 6 hours which agrees well with the observations. The height of the Thermal Internal Boundary Layer (TIBL) is also simulated from the vertical profiles of potential temperature. Simulated wind speed and wind directions are compared with the 50m tower data and potential temperature profiles are compared with the kytoon data. Results are in good agreement with the observed values except during night time wherein a small difference is seen in the wind speed.

  6. A climatological model of North Indian Ocean tropical cyclone genesis, tracks and landfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wahiduzzaman, Mohammad; Oliver, Eric C. J.; Wotherspoon, Simon J.; Holbrook, Neil J.

    2016-12-01

    Extensive damage and loss of life can be caused by tropical cyclones (TCs) that make landfall. Modelling of TC landfall probability is beneficial to insurance/re-insurance companies, decision makers, government policy and planning, and residents in coastal areas. In this study, we develop a climatological model of tropical cyclone genesis, tracks and landfall for North Indian Ocean (NIO) rim countries based on kernel density estimation, a generalised additive model (GAM) including an Euler integration step, and landfall detection using a country mask approach. Using a 35-year record (1979-2013) of tropical cyclone track observations from the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (part of the International Best Track Archive Climate Stewardship Version 6), the GAM is fitted to the observed cyclone track velocities as a smooth function of location in each season. The distribution of cyclone genesis points is approximated by kernel density estimation. The model simulated TCs are randomly selected from the fitted kernel (TC genesis), and the cyclone paths (TC tracks), represented by the GAM together with the application of stochastic innovations at each step, are simulated to generate a suite of NIO rim landfall statistics. Three hindcast validation methods are applied to evaluate the integrity of the model. First, leave-one-out cross validation is applied whereby the country of landfall is determined by the majority vote (considering the location by only highest percentage of landfall) from the simulated tracks. Second, the probability distribution of simulated landfall is evaluated against the observed landfall. Third, the distances between the point of observed landfall and simulated landfall are compared and quantified. Overall, the model shows very good cross-validated hindcast skill of modelled landfalling cyclones against observations in each of the NIO tropical cyclone seasons and for most NIO rim countries, with only a relatively small difference in the percentage of

  7. Ensemble single column model validation in the tropical western Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hume, Timothy; Jakob, Christian

    2007-05-01

    Single column models (SCMs) are useful tools for the evaluation of parameterizations of radiative and moist processes used in general circulation models (GCMs). SCM applications have usually been limited to regions where high-quality observations are available to derive the necessary boundary condition or forcing data. Recently, researchers have developed techniques for deriving SCM forcing data from other data sets, such as NWP (numerical weather prediction) analyses. The uncertainties inherent in these forcing data products have an unknown and possibly significant effect on SCM runs. This paper shows how an ensemble SCM (ESCM) approach can be used to minimize the uncertainty in SCM simulations resulting from uncertainties in the forcing data. Some innovative evaluation techniques have been applied to ESCM runs at the tropical western Pacific Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program sites at Manus Island and Nauru. These techniques, making use of traditional ensemble verification methods and objectively determined cloud regimes, are shown to be able to highlight parameterization deficiencies and provide a useful tool for testing new or improved model parameterizations.

  8. Impact of different vertical transport representations on simulating processes in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ploeger, Felix

    2011-07-06

    The chemical and dynamical processes in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL) control the amount of radiatively active species like water vapour and ozone in the stratosphere, and hence turn out to be crucial for atmospheric trends and climate change. Chemistry transport models and chemistry climate models are suitable tools to understand these processes. But model results are subject to uncertainties arising from the parametrization of model physics. In this thesis the sensitivity of model predictions to the choice of the vertical transport representation will be analysed. Therefore, backtrajectories are calculated in the TTL, based on different diabatic and kinematic transport representations using ERA-Interim and operational ECMWF data. For diabatic transport on potential temperature levels, the vertical velocity is deduced from the ERA-Interim diabatic heat budget. For kinematic transport on pressure levels, the vertical wind is used as vertical velocity. It is found that all terms in the diabatic heat budget are necessary to cause transport from the troposphere to the stratosphere. In particular, clear-sky heating rates alone miss very important processes. Many characteristics of transport in the TTL turn out to depend very sensitively on the choice of the vertical transport representation. Timescales for tropical troposphere-to-stratosphere transport vary between one and three months, with respect to the chosen representation. Moreover, for diabatic transport ascent is found throughout the upper TTL, whereas for kinematic transport regions of mean subsidence occur, particularly above the maritime continent. To investigate the sensitivity of simulated trace gas distributions in the TTL to the transport representation, a conceptual approach is presented to predict water vapour and ozone concentrations from backtrajectories, based on instantaneous freeze-drying and photochemical ozone production. It turns out that ozone predictions and vertical dispersion of the

  9. Simulation of maize growth under conservation farming in tropical environments.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stroosnijder, L.; Kiepe, P.

    1998-01-01

    This book is written for students and researchers with a keen interest in the quantification of the field soil water balance in tropical environments and the effect of conservation farming on crop production. Part 1 deals with the potential production, i.e. crop growth under ample supply of water nu

  10. Tropical Waves and the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in a 7-km Global Climate Simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holt, Laura A.; Alexander, M. Joan; Coy, Lawrence; Molod, Andrea; Putman, William; Pawson, Steven

    2016-01-01

    This study investigates tropical waves and their role in driving a quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO)-like signal in stratospheric winds in a global 7-km-horizontal-resolution atmospheric general circulation model. The Nature Run (NR) is a 2-year global mesoscale simulation of the Goddard Earth Observing System Model, version 5 (GEOS-5). In the tropics, there is evidence that the NR supports a broad range of convectively generated waves. The NR precipitation spectrum resembles the observed spectrum in many aspects, including the preference for westward-propagating waves. However, even with very high horizontal resolution and a healthy population of resolved waves, the zonal force provided by the resolved waves is still too low in the QBO region and parameterized gravity wave drag is the main driver of the NR QBO-like oscillation (NRQBO). The authors suggest that causes include coarse vertical resolution and excessive dissipation. Nevertheless, the very-high-resolution NR provides an opportunity to analyze the resolved wave forcing of the NR-QBO. In agreement with previous studies, large-scale Kelvin and small-scale waves contribute to the NRQBO driving in eastward shear zones and small-scale waves dominate the NR-QBO driving in westward shear zones. Waves with zonal wavelength,1000 km account for up to half of the small-scale (,3300 km) resolved wave forcing in eastward shear zones and up to 70% of the small-scale resolved wave forcing in westward shear zones of the NR-QBO.

  11. Tropical Waves and the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in a 7-km Global Climate Simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holt, Laura A.; Alexander, M. Joan; Coy, Lawrence; Molod, Andrea; Putman, William; Pawson, Steven

    2016-01-01

    This study investigates tropical waves and their role in driving a quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO)-like signal in stratospheric winds in a global 7-km-horizontal-resolution atmospheric general circulation model. The Nature Run (NR) is a 2-year global mesoscale simulation of the Goddard Earth Observing System Model, version 5 (GEOS-5). In the tropics, there is evidence that the NR supports a broad range of convectively generated waves. The NR precipitation spectrum resembles the observed spectrum in many aspects, including the preference for westward-propagating waves. However, even with very high horizontal resolution and a healthy population of resolved waves, the zonal force provided by the resolved waves is still too low in the QBO region and parameterized gravity wave drag is the main driver of the NR QBO-like oscillation (NRQBO). The authors suggest that causes include coarse vertical resolution and excessive dissipation. Nevertheless, the very-high-resolution NR provides an opportunity to analyze the resolved wave forcing of the NR-QBO. In agreement with previous studies, large-scale Kelvin and small-scale waves contribute to the NRQBO driving in eastward shear zones and small-scale waves dominate the NR-QBO driving in westward shear zones. Waves with zonal wavelength,1000 km account for up to half of the small-scale (,3300 km) resolved wave forcing in eastward shear zones and up to 70% of the small-scale resolved wave forcing in westward shear zones of the NR-QBO.

  12. Ensemble Forecasting of Tropical Cyclone Motion Using a Baroclinic Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xiaqiong ZHOU; Johnny C.L.CHEN

    2006-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to investigate the effectiveness of two different ensemble forecasting (EF) techniques-the lagged-averaged forecast (LAF) and the breeding of growing modes (BGM). In the BGM experiments, the vortex and the environment are perturbed separately (named BGMV and BGME).Tropical cyclone (TC) motions in two difficult situations are studied: a large vortex interacting with its environment, and an apparent binary interaction. The former is Typhoon Yancy and the latter involves Typhoon Ed and super Typhoon Flo, all occurring during the Tropical Cyclone Motion Experiment TCM-90. The model used is the baroclinic model of the University of New South Wales. The lateral boundary tendencies are computed from atmospheric analysis data. Only the relative skill of the ensemble forecast mean over the control run is used to evaluate the effectiveness of the EF methods, although the EF technique is also used to quantify forecast uncertainty in some studies. In the case of Yancy, the ensemble mean forecasts of each of the three methodologies are better than that of the control, with LAF being the best. The mean track of the LAF is close to the best track, and it predicts landfall over Taiwan. The improvements in LAF and the full BGM where both the environment and vortex are perturbed suggest the importance of combining the perturbation of the vortex and environment when the interaction between the two is appreciable. In the binary interaction case of Ed and Flo, the forecasts of Ed appear to be insensitive to perturbations of the environment and/or the vortex, which apparently results from erroneous forecasts by the model of the interaction between the subtropical ridge and Ed, as well as from the interaction between the two typhoons, thus reducing the effectiveness of the EF technique. This conclusion is reached through sensitivity experiments on the domain of the model and by adding or eliminating certain features in the model atmosphere. Nevertheless, the

  13. Large-Eddy Simulations of the Tropical Boundary Layer and Upper Ocean Coupling in the Arabian Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-09-30

    1 DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. Large - Eddy Simulations of the Tropical Boundary Layer...resolving large - eddy simulation of tropical convective development and surface fluxes, Mon. Wea. Rev., 143, 2441–2458. ...promoting large precipitation events over India. Simulations conducted with COAMPS will consider conditions identical to the proposed LES cases

  14. Tropical peatland carbon dynamics simulated for scenarios of disturbance and restoration and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frolking, S. E.; Warren, M.; Dai, Z.; Kurnianto, S.; Hagen, S. C.

    2015-12-01

    Tropical peatlands contain a globally significant carbon pool. Southeast Asian peatlands are being deforested, drained and burned at very high rates, mostly for conversion to industrial oil palm or pulp and paper plantations. The climate mitigation potential of tropical peatlands has gained increasing attention in recent years as persistent greenhouse gas emissions can be avoided or decreased if peatlands remain intact or are rehabilitated. In addition, peatland conservation or rehabilitation for climate mitigation also includes multiple co-benefits such as maintenance of ecosystem services, biodiversity, and air quality from reduced fire occurrence. Inventory guidelines and methodologies have only recently become available, and are based on few data from a limited number of sites. Few heuristic tools are available to evaluate the impact of management practices on carbon dynamics in tropical peatlands, and the potential climate mitigation benefits of peatland restoration. We used a process based dynamic tropical peatland model to explore the C dynamics of several peatland management trajectories represented by hypothetical scenarios, within the context of simulated 21st century climate change. All scenarios with land use, including those with optimal restoration, simulate C loss over the 21st century, with C losses ranging from 10% to essentially 100% of pre-disturbance values. Fire, either prescribed as part of a crop rotation cycle, or stochastic occurrences in sub-optimally managed degraded land can be the dominant C-loss pathway, particularly in the drier climate scenario we tested. A single 25-year oil palm rotation, with a prescribed initial burn, lost 40-50 kg C/m2, equivalent to accumulation during the previous 500 years, 10-30% of which was restored in 75 years of optimal restoration. Our results indicate that even under the most optimistic scenario of hydrological and forest restoration and the wettest climate regime, only about one-third of the carbon

  15. Wind waves in tropical cyclones: satellite altimeter observations and modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Golubkin, Pavel; Kudryavtsev, Vladimir; Chapron, Bertrand

    2016-04-01

    Results of investigation of wind-wave generation by tropical cyclones using satellite altimeter data are presented. Tropical cyclones are generally relatively small rapidly moving low pressure systems that are capable of generating severe wave conditions. Translation of a tropical cyclone leads to a prolonged period of time surface waves in the right sector remain under high wind forcing conditions. This effect has been termed extended fetch, trapped fetch or group velocity quasi-resonance. A tropical cyclone wave field is thus likely more asymmetrical than the corresponding wind field: wind waves in the tropical cyclone right sector are more developed with larger heights than waves in the left one. A dataset of satellite altimeter intersections of the Western Pacific tropical cyclones was created for 2010-2013. Data from four missions were considered, i.e., Jason-1, Jason-2, CryoSat-2, SARAL/AltiKa. Measurements in the rear-left and front-right sectors of tropical cyclones were examined for the presence of significant wave asymmetry. An analytical model is then derived to efficiently describe the wave energy distribution in a moving tropical cyclone. The model essentially builds on a generalization of the self-similar wave growth model and the assumption of a strongly dominant single spectral mode in a given quadrant of the storm. The model provides a criterion to anticipate wave enhancement with the generation of trapped abnormal waves. If forced during a sufficient timescale interval, also defined from this generalized self-similar wave growth model, waves can be trapped and large amplification of the wave energy will occur in the front-right storm quadrant. Remarkably, the group velocity and corresponding wavelength of outrunning wave systems will become wind speed independent and solely relate to the translating velocity. The resulting significant wave height also only weakly depends on wind speed, and more strongly on the translation velocity. Satellite

  16. Tropical intraseasonal oscillation simulated in an AMIP-type experiment by NICAM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kikuchi, Kazuyoshi; Kodama, Chihiro; Nasuno, Tomoe; Nakano, Masuo; Miura, Hiroaki; Satoh, Masaki; Noda, Akira T.; Yamada, Yohei

    2017-04-01

    It is the first time for the non-hydrostatic icosahedral atmospheric model (NICAM), at a horizontal mesh size of approximately 14-km, to conduct a continuous long-term Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project-type simulation. This study examines the performance of NICAM in simulating the tropical intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) from a statistical point of view using 30-year data (1979-2008) in the context of the bimodal ISO representation concept proposed by Kikuchi et al., which allows us to examine the seasonally varying behavior of the ISO in great detail, in addition to the MJO working group level 2 diagnostics. It is found that many of the fundamental features of the ISO are well captured by NICAM. The evolution of the ISO convection as well as large-scale circulation over the course of its life cycle is reasonably well reproduced throughout the year. As in the observation, the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) mode, characterized by prominent eastward propagation of convection, is predominant during boreal winter, whereas the boreal summer ISO (BSISO) mode, by a combination of pronounced eastward and northward propagation, during summer. The overall shape of the seasonal cycle as measured by the numbers of significant MJO and BSISO days in a month is relatively well captured. Two major biases, however, are also identified. The amplitude of the simulated ISO is weaker by a factor of 2. Significant BSISO events sometimes appear even during winter (December-April), amounting to 30 % of the total significant ISO days as opposed to 2 % in the observation. The results here warrant further studies using the simulation dataset to understand not only many aspects of the dynamics and physics of the ISO but also its role in weather and climate. It is also demonstrated that the concept of the bimodal ISO representation provides a useful framework for assessing model's capability to simulate, and illuminating model's deficiencies in reproducing, the ISO. The nature and

  17. Tropical intraseasonal oscillation simulated in an AMIP-type experiment by NICAM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kikuchi, Kazuyoshi; Kodama, Chihiro; Nasuno, Tomoe; Nakano, Masuo; Miura, Hiroaki; Satoh, Masaki; Noda, Akira T.; Yamada, Yohei

    2016-06-01

    It is the first time for the non-hydrostatic icosahedral atmospheric model (NICAM), at a horizontal mesh size of approximately 14-km, to conduct a continuous long-term Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project-type simulation. This study examines the performance of NICAM in simulating the tropical intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) from a statistical point of view using 30-year data (1979-2008) in the context of the bimodal ISO representation concept proposed by Kikuchi et al., which allows us to examine the seasonally varying behavior of the ISO in great detail, in addition to the MJO working group level 2 diagnostics. It is found that many of the fundamental features of the ISO are well captured by NICAM. The evolution of the ISO convection as well as large-scale circulation over the course of its life cycle is reasonably well reproduced throughout the year. As in the observation, the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) mode, characterized by prominent eastward propagation of convection, is predominant during boreal winter, whereas the boreal summer ISO (BSISO) mode, by a combination of pronounced eastward and northward propagation, during summer. The overall shape of the seasonal cycle as measured by the numbers of significant MJO and BSISO days in a month is relatively well captured. Two major biases, however, are also identified. The amplitude of the simulated ISO is weaker by a factor of ~2. Significant BSISO events sometimes appear even during winter (December-April), amounting to ~30 % of the total significant ISO days as opposed to ~2 % in the observation. The results here warrant further studies using the simulation dataset to understand not only many aspects of the dynamics and physics of the ISO but also its role in weather and climate. It is also demonstrated that the concept of the bimodal ISO representation provides a useful framework for assessing model's capability to simulate, and illuminating model's deficiencies in reproducing, the ISO. The nature and

  18. Modelling trends in tropical column ozone with the UKCA chemistry-climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keeble, James; Bednarz, Ewa; Banerjee, Antara; Abraham, Luke; Harris, Neil; Maycock, Amanda; Pyle, John

    2016-04-01

    Trends in tropical column ozone under a number of different emissions scenarios are explored with the UM-UKCA coupled chemistry climate model. A transient 1960-2100 simulation was run following the RCP6 scenario. Tropical averaged (10S-10N) total column ozone values decrease from the 1970s, reaching a minimum around 2000, and return to their 1980 values around 2040, consistent with the use and emission of ozone depleting substances, and their later controls under the Montreal Protocol. However, when the total column is subdivided into three partial columns, extending from the surface to the tropopause, the tropopause to 30km, and 30km to 50km, significant differences to the total column trend are seen. Modelled tropospheric column values increase from 1960-2000 before remaining steady throughout the 21st Century. Lower stratospheric column values decrease rapidly from 1960-2000, remain steady until 2050 before slowly decreasing to 2100, never recovering to their 1980s values. Upper stratospheric values decrease from 1960-2000, before rapidly increasing throughout the 21st Century, recovering to 1980s values by ~2020 and are significantly increased above the 1980s values by 2100. Using a series of idealised model simulations with varying concentrations of greenhouse gases and ozone depleting substances, we assess the physical processes driving the partial column response in the troposphere, lower stratosphere and upper stratosphere, and assess how these processes change under different emissions scenarios. Finally, we present a simple, linearised model for predicting tropical column ozone values based on greenhouse gas and ozone depleting substance scenarios.

  19. Annual Cycle and Interannual Variability in the Tropical Pacific as Simulated by Three Versions of FGOALS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YU Yongqiang; HE Jie; ZHENG Weipeng; LUAN Yihua

    2013-01-01

    The seasonal cycle and interannual variability in the tropical oceans simulated by three versions of the Flexible Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System (FGOALS) model (FGOALS-g1.0,FGOALS-g2 and FGOALS-s2),which have participated in phases 3 and 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5),are presented in this paper.The seasonal cycle of SST in the tropical Pacific is realistically reproduced by FGOALS-g2 and FGOALS-s2,while it is poorly simulated in FGOALS-g1.0.Three feedback mechanisms responsible for the SST annual cycle in the eastern Pacific are evaluated.The ocean-atmosphere dynamic feedback,which is successfully reproduced by both FGOALS-g2 and FGOALS-s2,plays a key role in determining the SST annual cycle,while the overestimated stratus cloud-SST feedback amplifies the annual cycle in FGOALS-s2.Because of the serious warm bias existing in FGOALS-g1.0,the ocean-atmosphere dynamic feedback is greatly underestimated in FGOALS-g1.0,in which the SST annual cycle is mainly driven by surface solar radiation.FGOALS-g1.0 simulates much stronger ENSO events than observed,whereas FGOALS-g2 and FGOALS-s2 successfully simulate the observed ENSO amplitude and period and positive asymmetry,but with less strength.Further ENSO feedback analyses suggest that surface solar radiation feedback is principally responsible for the overestimated ENSO amplitude in FGOALS-g1.0.Both FGOALS-g1.0 and FGOALS-s2 can simulate two different types of El Ni(n)o events with maximum SST anomalies in the eastern Pacific (EP) or in the central Pacific (CP)-but FGOALS-g2 is only able to simulate EP E1 Ni(n)o,because the negative cloud shortwave forcing feedback by FGOALS-g2 is much stronger than observed in the central Pacific.

  20. Simulation of Organized Convection and Tropical-wave Coupling in a YOTC MJO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moncrieff, M. W.; Liu, C.

    2015-12-01

    Organized precipitating convection coupled to various tropical waves was impressively complex in the eastern Indian Ocean in the April 2009 MJO, one of the six MJOs that occurred during the YOTC virtual global field campaign (May 2008-April 2010). Organized convection in the form of a westward-propagating synoptic-scale supercluster and a family of eastward-propagating mesoscale squall lines formed west of Sumatra. The supercluster was strongly coupled to a westward inertio-gravity wave. All these features are embedded in an equatorial Rossby wave, and the MJO overall. The 1.3 km inner-grid of the WRF model, nested in a 4 km-grid outer-grid spanning the Indian Ocean and the western Maritime Continent region, successfully simulated the timing, location, propagation, and life-cycle of this multiscale convection-wave interaction as verified by TRMM measurements.

  1. Humidity, Radiative and Surface-Flux Feedbacks on the Multiscale Organization of CRM-Simulated Tropical Convection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bretherton, C. S.; Khairoutdinov, M.

    2015-12-01

    Positive feedbacks between column humidity, reduced radiative cooling and enhanced surface fluxes promote convective self-aggregation in limited area cloud-resolving model (CRM) simulations over uniform sea-surface temperature (SST). Near-global aquaplanet simulations with 4 km horizontal resolution and no cumulus or boundary-layer parameterization are used to test the importance of these feedbacks to realistically organized tropical convection. A 20480x10240 km equatorially centered channel with latitudinally varying SST is used. Realistic midlatitude and tropical cloud structures develop (see attached image). The natural zonal variability of humidity and convection are studied in a 30 day control simulation. A small white-noise humidity perturbation is then added to explore temporal perturbation growth. Atmospheric column budgets of moist static energy (MSE) quantify its covariability with precipitation, surface heat flux and radiative energy loss. Zonal Fourier analysis partitions these budgets by length scale. Radiative feedbacks on MSE natural variability and perturbation growth are found to be positive, broadly similar across scales, and comparable to limited-area CRMs, capable of e-folding a column MSE perturbation in 10 days. In contrast, in the presence of horizontal SST gradients, synoptic-scale dry intrusions with enhanced surface latent heat fluxes damp tropical MSE perturbations and inhibit aggregation. Over sub-10-day timescales, dynamically-driven feedbacks dominate. The tropics and midlatitudes have similar timescales for loss of large-scale deterministic predictability. This work is under review: Bretherton, C. S., and M. Khairoutdinov, 2015: Convective self-aggregation feedbacks in near-global cloud-resolving simulations of an aquaplanet. J. Adv. Model. Earth Sys., submitted 6/2015.

  2. Evaluation of a Heuristic Model for Tropical Cyclone Resilience

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-01-26

    Riehl 1958; Kimball 4 2006; Riemer and Montgomery 2011), both of which influence the organization of 5 convection and, ultimately, operation of the...On the ability of dry tropical-cyclone-like vortices to withstand 1 vertical shear. J. Atmos. Sci., 61, 114–119. 2 Kimball , S. K., 2006: A modeling

  3. Computer Modeling and Simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pronskikh, V. S. [Fermilab

    2014-05-09

    Verification and validation of computer codes and models used in simulation are two aspects of the scientific practice of high importance and have recently been discussed by philosophers of science. While verification is predominantly associated with the correctness of the way a model is represented by a computer code or algorithm, validation more often refers to model’s relation to the real world and its intended use. It has been argued that because complex simulations are generally not transparent to a practitioner, the Duhem problem can arise for verification and validation due to their entanglement; such an entanglement makes it impossible to distinguish whether a coding error or model’s general inadequacy to its target should be blamed in the case of the model failure. I argue that in order to disentangle verification and validation, a clear distinction between computer modeling (construction of mathematical computer models of elementary processes) and simulation (construction of models of composite objects and processes by means of numerical experimenting with them) needs to be made. Holding on to that distinction, I propose to relate verification (based on theoretical strategies such as inferences) to modeling and validation, which shares the common epistemology with experimentation, to simulation. To explain reasons of their intermittent entanglement I propose a weberian ideal-typical model of modeling and simulation as roles in practice. I suggest an approach to alleviate the Duhem problem for verification and validation generally applicable in practice and based on differences in epistemic strategies and scopes

  4. Theory Modeling and Simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shlachter, Jack [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2012-08-23

    Los Alamos has a long history in theory, modeling and simulation. We focus on multidisciplinary teams that tackle complex problems. Theory, modeling and simulation are tools to solve problems just like an NMR spectrometer, a gas chromatograph or an electron microscope. Problems should be used to define the theoretical tools needed and not the other way around. Best results occur when theory and experiments are working together in a team.

  5. Forty years experience in developing and using rainfall simulators under tropical and Mediterranean conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pla-Sentís, Ildefonso; Nacci, Silvana

    2010-05-01

    Rainfall simulation has been used as a practical tool for evaluating the interaction of falling water drops on the soil surface, to measure both stability of soil aggregates to drop impact and water infiltration rates. In both cases it is tried to simulate the effects of natural rainfall, which usually occurs at very different, variable and erratic rates and intensities. One of the main arguments against the use of rainfall simulators is the difficulty to reproduce the size, final velocity and kinetic energy of the drops in natural rainfall. Since the early 70´s we have been developing and using different kinds of rainfall simulators, both at laboratory and field levels, and under tropical and Mediterranean soil and climate conditions, in flat and sloping lands. They have been mainly used to evaluate the relative effects of different land use and management, including different cropping systems, tillage practices, surface soil conditioning, surface covers, etc. on soil water infiltration, on runoff and on erosion. Our experience is that in any case it is impossible to reproduce the variable size distribution and terminal velocity of raindrops, and the variable changes in intensity of natural storms, under a particular climate condition. In spite of this, with the use of rainfall simulators it is possible to obtain very good information, which if it is properly interpreted in relation to each particular condition (land and crop management, rainfall characteristics, measurement conditions, etc.) may be used as one of the parameters for deducing and modelling soil water balance and soil moisture regime under different land use and management and variable climate conditions. Due to the possibility for a better control of the intensity of simulated rainfall and of the size of water drops, and the possibility to make more repeated measurements under very variable soil and land conditions, both in the laboratory and specially in the field, the better results have been

  6. Multi-model analysis of expected future trends in the landfall of tropical systems from the Southwest Indian Ocean over the eastern parts of southern Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Malherbe, J

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available An analysis was performed on the simulations of various Global Circulation Models regarding the change in favourability of broad circulation anomalies in the lower atmosphere for landfall and further westward penetration of tropical systems from...

  7. Verification of tropical cyclone using the KIAPS Integration Model (KIM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, S.; Seol, K. H.

    2015-12-01

    The Korea Institute of Atmospheric Prediction Systems (KIAPS) is a government funded non-profit research and development institute located in Seoul, South Korea. KIAPS is developing the Global Model, a backbone for the next-generation operational global numerical weather prediction (NWP) system with three-phase plans; Establishment and R&D Planning (2011-2013), Test Model Development (2014-2016), and Operational Model Development (2017-2019). As a second-phase, we have beta version of KIAPS Integration Model (KIM) that can produce reasonable global forecasting. Using the KIM model, we are evaluating the tropical cyclone forecast in the global model. To objectively provide a best estimate of the storm's central position, we use the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) vortex tracker, widely used in tracker algorithms. It gives the track and intensity of the storm throughout the duration of the forecast based on its algorithm. As a verification tool, we use the Model Evaluation Tool - Tropical Cyclone (MET-TC), which produces statistical evaluation. We expect these results give the statue of ability for the tropical cyclone forecast with KIM model.

  8. Simulation modeling of carcinogenesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellwein, L B; Cohen, S M

    1992-03-01

    A discrete-time simulation model of carcinogenesis is described mathematically using recursive relationships between time-varying model variables. The dynamics of cellular behavior is represented within a biological framework that encompasses two irreversible and heritable genetic changes. Empirical data and biological supposition dealing with both control and experimental animal groups are used together to establish values for model input variables. The estimation of these variables is integral to the simulation process as described in step-by-step detail. Hepatocarcinogenesis in male F344 rats provides the basis for seven modeling scenarios which illustrate the complexity of relationships among cell proliferation, genotoxicity, and tumor risk.

  9. Toward trait-based mortality models for tropical forests.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mélaine Aubry-Kientz

    Full Text Available Tree mortality in tropical forests is a complex ecological process for which modelling approaches need to be improved to better understand, and then predict, the evolution of tree mortality in response to global change. The mortality model introduced here computes an individual probability of dying for each tree in a community. The mortality model uses the ontogenetic stage of the tree because youngest and oldest trees are more likely to die. Functional traits are integrated as proxies of the ecological strategies of the trees to permit generalization among all species in the community. Data used to parametrize the model were collected at Paracou study site, a tropical rain forest in French Guiana, where 20,408 trees have been censused for 18 years. A Bayesian framework was used to select useful covariates and to estimate the model parameters. This framework was developed to deal with sources of uncertainty, including the complexity of the mortality process itself and the field data, especially historical data for which taxonomic determinations were uncertain. Uncertainty about the functional traits was also considered, to maximize the information they contain. Four functional traits were strong predictors of tree mortality: wood density, maximum height, laminar toughness and stem and branch orientation, which together distinguished the light-demanding, fast-growing trees from slow-growing trees with lower mortality rates. Our modelling approach formalizes a complex ecological problem and offers a relevant mathematical framework for tropical ecologists to process similar uncertain data at the community level.

  10. Impact of Megha-Tropiques SAPHIR radiance assimilation on the simulation of tropical cyclones over Bay of Bengal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dhanya, M.; Gopalakrishnan, Deepak; Chandrasekar, Anantharaman; Singh, Sanjeev Kumar; Prasad, V. S.

    2016-05-01

    Impact of SAPHIR radiance assimilation on the simulation of tropical cyclones over Indian region has been investigated using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Three cyclones that formed over Bay of Bengal have been considered in the present study. Assimilation methodology used here is the three dimensional variational (3DVar) scheme within the WRF model. With the initial and boundary conditions from Global Forecasting System (GFS) analyses from the National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), a control run (CTRL) without assimilation of any data and a 3DVar run with the assimilation of SAPHIR radiance have been performed. Both model simulations have been compared with the observations from India Meteorological Department (IMD), Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM), and analysis fields from GFS. Detailed analysis reveals that, the SAPHIR radiance assimilation has led to significant improvement in the simulation of all the three cyclones in terms of cyclone track, intensity, accumulated rainfall. The simulation of warm core structure and relative vorticity profile of each cyclone by 3DVar run are found to be more closer to GFS analyses, when compared with the CTRL run.

  11. On the relative role of fire and rainfall in determining vegetation patterns in tropical savannas: a simulation study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spessa, Allan; Fisher, Rosie

    2010-05-01

    Tropical savannas cover 18% of the world's land surface and are amongst the most productive terrestrial systems in the world. They comprise 15% of the total terrestrial carbon stock, with an estimated mean net primary productivity (NPP) of 7.2 tCha-1yr-1 or two thirds of NPP in tropical forests. Tropical savannas are the most frequently burnt biome, with fire return intervals in highly productive areas being typically 1-2 years. Fires shape vegetation species composition, tree to grass ratios and nutrient redistribution, as well as the biosphere-atmosphere exchange of trace gases, momentum and radiative energy. Tropical savannas are a major source of emissions, contributing 38 % of total annual CO2 from biomass burning, 30% CO, 19 % CH4 and 59 % NOx. Climatically, they occur in regions subject to a strongly seasonal ‘wet-dry' regime, usually under monsoonal control from the movement of the inter-tropical convergence zone. In general, rainfall during the prior wet season(s) determines the amount of grass fuel available for burning while the length of the dry season influences fuel moisture content. Rainfall in tropical savannas exhibits high inter-annual variability, and under future climate change, is projected to change significantly in much of Africa, South America and northern Australia. Process-based simulation models of fire-vegetation dynamics and feedbacks are critical for determining the impacts of wildfires under projected future climate change on i) ecosystem structure and function, and ii) emissions of trace gases and aerosols from biomass burning. A new mechanistic global fire model SPITFIRE (SPread and InTensity of FIRE) has been designed to overcome many of the limitations in existing fire models set within Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs). SPITFIRE has been applied in coupled mode globally and southern Africa, both as part of the LPJ DGVM. It has also been driven with MODIS burnt area data applied to sub-Saharan Africa, while coupled to the

  12. Characteristics of Tropical Cyclones in High-Resolution Models of the Present Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaevitz, Daniel A.; Camargo, Suzana J.; Sobel, Adam H.; Jonas, Jeffery A.; Kim, Daeyhun; Kumar, Arun; LaRow, Timothy E.; Lim, Young-Kwon; Murakami, Hiroyuki; Roberts, Malcolm J.; hide

    2014-01-01

    The global characteristics of tropical cyclones (TCs) simulated by several climate models are analyzed and compared with observations. The global climate models were forced by the same sea surface temperature (SST) in two types of experiments, using a climatological SST and interannually varying SST. TC tracks and intensities are derived from each model's output fields by the group who ran that model, using their own preferred tracking scheme; the study considers the combination of model and tracking scheme as a single modeling system, and compares the properties derived from the different systems. Overall, the observed geographic distribution of global TC frequency was reasonably well reproduced. As expected, with the exception of one model, intensities of the simulated TC were lower than in observations, to a degree that varies considerably across models.

  13. Characteristics of Tropical Cyclones in High-resolution Models in the Present Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaevitz, Daniel A.; Camargo, Suzana J.; Sobel, Adam H.; Jonas, Jeffrey A.; Kim, Daehyun; Kumar, Arun; LaRow, Timothy E.; Lim, Young-Kwon; Murakami, Hiroyuki; Reed, Kevin; hide

    2014-01-01

    The global characteristics of tropical cyclones (TCs) simulated by several climate models are analyzed and compared with observations. The global climate models were forced by the same sea surface temperature (SST) fields in two types of experiments, using climatological SST and interannually varying SST. TC tracks and intensities are derived from each model's output fields by the group who ran that model, using their own preferred tracking scheme; the study considers the combination of model and tracking scheme as a single modeling system, and compares the properties derived from the different systems. Overall, the observed geographic distribution of global TC frequency was reasonably well reproduced. As expected, with the exception of one model, intensities of the simulated TC were lower than in observations, to a degree that varies considerably across models.

  14. Modelling and simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Casetti, E.; Vogt, W.G.; Mickle, M.H.

    1984-01-01

    This conference includes papers on the uses of supercomputers, multiprocessors, artificial intelligence and expert systems in various energy applications. Topics considered include knowledge-based expert systems for power engineering, a solar air conditioning laboratory computer system, multivariable control systems, the impact of power system disturbances on computer systems, simulating shared-memory parallel computers, real-time image processing with multiprocessors, and network modeling and simulation of greenhouse solar systems.

  15. Tropical cyclones in a T159 resolution global climate model: comparison with observations and re-analyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bengtsson, L.; Hodges, K. I.; Esch, M.

    2007-08-01

    Tropical cyclones have been investigated in a T159 version of the MPI ECHAM5 climate model using a novel technique to diagnose the evolution of the three-dimensional vorticity structure of tropical cyclones, including their full life cycle from weak initial vortices to their possible extra-tropical transition. Results have been compared with re-analyses [the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) 40-yr Re-analysis (ERA40) and Japanese 25 yr re-analysis (JRA25)] and observed tropical storms during the period 1978-1999 for the Northern Hemisphere. There is no indication of any trend in the number or intensity of tropical storms during this period in ECHAM5 or in re-analyses but there are distinct inter-annual variations. The storms simulated by ECHAM5 are realistic both in space and time, but the model and even more so the re-analyses, underestimate the intensities of the most intense storms (in terms of their maximum wind speeds). There is an indication of a response to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) with a smaller number of Atlantic storms during El Niño in agreement with previous studies. The global divergence circulation responds to El Niño by setting up a large-scale convergence flow, with the centre over the central Pacific with enhanced subsidence over the tropical Atlantic. At the same time there is an increase in the vertical wind shear in the region of the tropical Atlantic where tropical storms normally develop. There is a good correspondence between the model and ERA40 except that the divergence circulation is somewhat stronger in the model. The model underestimates storms in the Atlantic but tends to overestimate them in the Western Pacific and in the North Indian Ocean. It is suggested that the overestimation of storms in the Pacific by the model is related to an overly strong response to the tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. The overestimation in the North Indian Ocean is likely to be due to an over

  16. A statistical forecast model for Tropical Cyclone Rainfall and flood events for the Hudson River

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cioffi, Francesco; Conticello, Federico; Hall, Thimoty; Lall, Upmanu; Orton, Philip

    2014-05-01

    Tropical Cyclones (TCs) lead to potentially severe coastal flooding through wind surge and also through rainfall-runoff processes. There is growing interest in modeling these processes simultaneously. Here, a statistical approach that can facilitate this process is presented with an application to the Hudson River Basin that is associated with the New York City metropolitan area. Three submodels are used in sequence. The first submodel is a stochastic model of the complete life cycle of North Atlantic (NA) tropical cyclones developed by Hall and Yonekura (2011). It uses archived data of TCs throughout the North Atlantic to estimate landfall rates at high geographic resolution as a function of the ENSO state and of sea surface temperature (SST). The second submodel translates the attributes of a tropical cyclone simulated by the first model to rainfall intensity at selected stations within the watershed of Hudson River. Two different approaches are used and compared: artificial neural network (ANN) and k-nearest neighbor (KNN). Finally, the third submodel transforms, once again, by using an ANN approach and KNN, the rainfall intensities, calculated for the ensemble of the stations, to the streamflows at specific points of the tributaries of the Hudson River. These streamflows are to be used as inputs in a hydrodynamic model that includes storm surge surge dynamics for the simulation of coastal flooding along the Hudson River. Calibration and validation of the model is carried out by using, selected tropical cyclone data since 1950, and hourly station rainfall and streamflow recorded for such extreme events. Four stream gauges (Troy dam, Mohawk River at Cohoes, Mohawk River diversion at Crescent Dam, Hudson River above lock one nr Waterford), a gauge from a tributary in the lower Hudson River, and over 20 rain gauges are used. The performance of the proposed model as tool for storm events is then analyzed and discussed.

  17. Validation of simulation models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rehman, Muniza; Pedersen, Stig Andur

    2012-01-01

    In philosophy of science, the interest for computational models and simulations has increased heavily during the past decades. Different positions regarding the validity of models have emerged but the views have not succeeded in capturing the diversity of validation methods. The wide variety...... of models has been somewhat narrow-minded reducing the notion of validation to establishment of truth. This article puts forward the diversity in applications of simulation models that demands a corresponding diversity in the notion of validation....... of models with regards to their purpose, character, field of application and time dimension inherently calls for a similar diversity in validation approaches. A classification of models in terms of the mentioned elements is presented and used to shed light on possible types of validation leading...

  18. The tropical marine boundary layer under a deep convection system: a large-eddy simulation study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D A Randall

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available The tropical marine PBL under the influence of a deep convection system is investigated using a largedomain LES that resolves a wide range of scales, from mesoscale cloud clusters down to energy-containing turbulence. The simulated PBL is dominated by both turbulence and cloud-induced cold-pools. The variance of vertical velocity in the PBL resides mostly in the turbulence scales while that of water vapor mixing ratio resides mostly at the cold-pool scales; however, both turbulence and cold-pool scales contribute about equally to their covariance. The broad scale range of the LES flow field is decomposed into the filtered (i.e., cloud system and the subfilter (i.e., small convection and turbulence components using a Gaussian filter with various filter widths. Such decomposed flow fields are used to retrieve information of spatial distribution of the subfilter-scale fluxes and their relationship to the filtered field. This information is then used to evaluate the performance of an eddy-viscosity model commonly used in cloud-resolving models. The subfilter-scale fluxes computed from the eddy-viscosity model correlate reasonably with those retrieved from the LES in the lower cloud layer but not in the PBL; the correlation coefficients between the modeled and the retrieved fluxes are about 0.5 in the lower cloud layer but smaller than 0.2 in the PBL.

  19. Chemistry-transport modeling of the satellite observed distribution of tropical troposheric ozone

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Peters

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available We have compared the 14-year record of satellite derived tropical tropospheric ozone columns (TTOC from the NIMBUS--7 Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS to TTOC calculated by achemistry-transport model (CTM. An objective measure of error, based on the zonal distribution of TTOC in the tropics, is applied to perform this comparison systematically. In addition, the sensitivity of the model to several key processes in the tropics is quantified to select directions for future improvements. The comparisons indicate a widespread, systematic (20% discrepancy over the tropical Atlantic Ocean, which maximizes during austral Spring. Although independent evidence from ozonesondes shows that some of the disagreement is due to satellite overestimate of TTOC, the Atlantic mismatch is largely due to a misrepresentation of seasonally recurring processes in the model. Only minor differences between the model and observations over the Pacific occur, mostly due to interannual variability not captured by the model. Although chemical processes determine the TTOC extent, dynamical processes dominate the TTOC distribution, as the use of actual meteorology pertaining to the year of observations always leads to a better agreement with TTOC observations than using a random year or a climatology. The modeled TTOC is remarkably insensitive to many model parameters due to efficient feedbacks in the ozone budget. Nevertheless, the simulations would profit from an improved biomass burning calendar, as well as from an increase in NOx abundances in free tropospheric biomass burning plumes. The model showed the largest response to lightning NOx emissions, but systematic improvements could not be found. The use of multi-year satellite derived tropospheric data to systematically test and improve a CTM is a promising new addition to existing methods of model validation, and is a first step to integrating tropospheric satellite observations into global ozone modeling studies

  20. Interactions Between the Thermohaline Circulation and Tropical Atlantic SST in a Coupled General Circulation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Ron; Jiang, Xing-Jian; Travis, Larry (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    Tropical Atlantic SST shows a (statistically well-defined) decadal time scale in a 104-year simulation of unforced variability by a coupled general circulation model (CGCM). The SST anomalies superficially resemble observed Tropical Atlantic variability (TAV), and are associated with changes in the atmospheric circulation. Brazilian rainfall is modulated with a decadal time scale, along with the strength of the Atlantic trade winds, which are associated with variations in evaporation and the net surface heat flux. However, in contrast to observed tropical Atlantic variability, the trade winds damp the associated anomalies in ocean temperature, indicating a negative feedback. Tropical SST anomalies in the CGCM, though opposed by the surface heat flux, are advected in from the Southern Hemisphere mid-latitudes. These variations modulate the strength of the thermohaline circulation (THC): warm, salty anomalies at the equator sink drawing cold, fresh mid-latitude water. Upon reaching the equator, the latter inhibit vertical overturning and advection from higher latitudes, which allows warm, salty anomalies to reform, returning the cycle to its original state. Thus, the cycle results from advection of density anomalies and the effect of these anomalies upon the rate of vertical overturning and surface advection. This decadal modulation of Tropical Atlantic SST and the thermohaline circulation is correlated with ocean heat transport to the Northern Hemisphere high latitudes and Norwegian Sea SST. Because of the central role of equatorial convection, we question whether this mechanism is present in the current climate, although we speculate that it may have operated in palaeo times, depending upon the stability of the tropical water column.

  1. The strength of the tropical inversion and its response to climate change in 18 CMIP5 models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qu, Xin; Hall, Alex; Klein, Stephen A.; Caldwell, Peter M.

    2015-07-01

    We examine the tropical inversion strength, measured by the estimated inversion strength (EIS), and its response to climate change in 18 models associated with phase 5 of the coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP5). While CMIP5 models generally capture the geographic distribution of observed EIS, they systematically underestimate it off the west coasts of continents, due to a warm bias in sea surface temperature. The negative EIS bias may contribute to the low bias in tropical low-cloud cover in the same models. Idealized perturbation experiments reveal that anthropogenic forcing leads directly to EIS increases, independent of "temperature-mediated" EIS increases associated with long-term oceanic warming. This fast EIS response to anthropogenic forcing is strongly impacted by nearly instantaneous continental warming. The temperature-mediated EIS change has contributions from both uniform and non-uniform oceanic warming. The substantial EIS increases in uniform oceanic warming simulations are due to warming with height exceeding the moist adiabatic lapse rate in tropical warm pools. EIS also increases in fully-coupled ocean-atmosphere simulations where concentration is instantaneously quadrupled, due to both fast and temperature-mediated changes. The temperature-mediated EIS change varies with tropical warming in a nonlinear fashion: The EIS change per degree tropical warming is much larger in the early stage of the simulations than in the late stage, due to delayed warming in the eastern parts of the subtropical oceans. Given the importance of EIS in regulating tropical low-cloud cover, this suggests that the tropical low-cloud feedback may also be nonlinear.

  2. Seasonal leaf dynamics for tropical evergreen forests in a process-based global ecosystem model

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Weirdt, M.; Verbeeck, H.; Maignan, F.; Peylin, P.; Poulter, B.; Bonal, D.; Ciais, P.; Steppe, K.

    2012-09-01

    The influence of seasonal phenology on canopy photosynthesis in tropical evergreen forests remains poorly understood, and its representation in global ecosystem models is highly simplified, typically with no seasonal variation of canopy leaf properties taken into account. Including seasonal variation in leaf age and photosynthetic capacity could improve the correspondence of global vegetation model outputs with the wet-dry season CO2 patterns measured at flux tower sites in these forests. We introduced a leaf litterfall dynamics scheme in the global terrestrial ecosystem model ORCHIDEE based on seasonal variations in net primary production (NPP), resulting in higher leaf turnover in periods of high productivity. The modifications in the leaf litterfall scheme induce seasonal variation in leaf age distribution and photosynthetic capacity. We evaluated the results of the modification against seasonal patterns of three long-term in-situ leaf litterfall datasets of evergreen tropical forests in Panama, French Guiana and Brazil. In addition, we evaluated the impact of the model improvements on simulated latent heat (LE) and gross primary productivity (GPP) fluxes for the flux tower sites Guyaflux (French Guiana) and Tapajós (km 67, Brazil). The results show that the introduced seasonal leaf litterfall corresponds well with field inventory leaf litter data and times with its seasonality. Although the simulated litterfall improved substantially by the model modifications, the impact on the modelled fluxes remained limited. The seasonal pattern of GPP improved clearly for the Guyaflux site, but no significant improvement was obtained for the Tapajós site. The seasonal pattern of the modelled latent heat fluxes was hardly changed and remained consistent with the observed fluxes. We conclude that we introduced a realistic and generic litterfall dynamics scheme, but that other processes need to be improved in the model to achieve better simulations of GPP seasonal patterns

  3. Seasonal leaf dynamics for tropical evergreen forests in a process-based global ecosystem model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. De Weirdt

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available The influence of seasonal phenology on canopy photosynthesis in tropical evergreen forests remains poorly understood, and its representation in global ecosystem models is highly simplified, typically with no seasonal variation of canopy leaf properties taken into account. Including seasonal variation in leaf age and photosynthetic capacity could improve the correspondence of global vegetation model outputs with the wet–dry season CO2 patterns measured at flux tower sites in these forests. We introduced a leaf litterfall dynamics scheme in the global terrestrial ecosystem model ORCHIDEE based on seasonal variations in net primary production (NPP, resulting in higher leaf turnover in periods of high productivity. The modifications in the leaf litterfall scheme induce seasonal variation in leaf age distribution and photosynthetic capacity. We evaluated the results of the modification against seasonal patterns of three long-term in-situ leaf litterfall datasets of evergreen tropical forests in Panama, French Guiana and Brazil. In addition, we evaluated the impact of the model improvements on simulated latent heat (LE and gross primary productivity (GPP fluxes for the flux tower sites Guyaflux (French Guiana and Tapajós (km 67, Brazil. The results show that the introduced seasonal leaf litterfall corresponds well with field inventory leaf litter data and times with its seasonality. Although the simulated litterfall improved substantially by the model modifications, the impact on the modelled fluxes remained limited. The seasonal pattern of GPP improved clearly for the Guyaflux site, but no significant improvement was obtained for the Tapajós site. The seasonal pattern of the modelled latent heat fluxes was hardly changed and remained consistent with the observed fluxes. We conclude that we introduced a realistic and generic litterfall dynamics scheme, but that other processes need to be improved in the model to achieve better

  4. Simulation and Interpretation of the Genesis of Tropical Storm Gert (2005) as Part of the NASA Tropical Cloud Systems and Processes Experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braun, Scott A.; Montgomery, Michael T.; Mallen, Kevin

    2009-01-01

    Several hypotheses have been put forward for the how tropical cyclones (tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic) first develop circulation at the surface, a key event that needs to occur before a storm can begin to draw energy from the warm ocean. One hypothesis suggests that the surface circulation forms from a "top-down" approach in which a storm s rotating circulation begins at middle levels of the atmosphere and builds down to the surface through processes related to light "stratiform" (horizontally extensive) precipitation. Another hypothesis suggests a bottom-up approach in which deep thunderstorm towers (convection) play the major role in spinning up the flow at the surface. These "hot towers" form in the area of the mid-level circulation and strongly concentrate this rotation at low levels within their updrafts. Merger of several of these hot towers then intensifies the surface circulation to the point in which a storm forms. This paper examines computer simulations of Tropical Storm Gert (2005), which formed in the Gulf of Mexico during the National Aeronautics and Space Administration s (NASA) Tropical Cloud Systems and Processes (TCSP) Experiment, to investigate the development of low-level circulation and, in particular, whether stratiform or hot tower processes were responsible for the storm s formation. Data from NASA satellites and from aircraft were used to show that the model did a good job of reproducing the formation and evolution of Gert. The simulation shows that a mix of both stratiform and convective rainfall occurred within Gert. While the stratiform rainfall clearly acted to increase rotation at middle levels, the diverging outflow beneath the stratiform rain worked against spinning up the low-level winds. The hot towers appeared to dominate the low-level flow, producing intense rotation within their cores and often being associated with significant pressure falls at the surface. Over time, many of these hot towers merged, with each

  5. An investigation of tropical Atlantic bias in a high-resolution coupled regional climate model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Patricola, Christina M.; Saravanan, R.; Hsieh, Jen-Shan [Texas A and M University, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, College Station, TX (United States); Li, Mingkui; Xu, Zhao [Texas A and M University, Department of Oceanography, College Station, TX (United States); Ocean University of China, Key Laboratory of Physical Oceanography of Ministry of Education, Qingdao (China); Chang, Ping [Texas A and M University, Department of Oceanography, College Station, TX (United States); Ocean University of China, Key Laboratory of Physical Oceanography of Ministry of Education, Qingdao (China); Second Institute of Oceanography, State Key Laboratory of Satellite Ocean Environment Dynamics, Hangzhou, Zhejiang (China)

    2012-11-15

    Coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) commonly fail to simulate the eastern equatorial Atlantic boreal summer cold tongue and produce a westerly equatorial trade wind bias. This tropical Atlantic bias problem is investigated with a high-resolution (27-km atmosphere represented by the Weather Research and Forecasting Model, 9-km ocean represented by the Regional Ocean Modeling System) coupled regional climate model. Uncoupled atmospheric simulations test climate sensitivity to cumulus, land-surface, planetary boundary layer, microphysics, and radiation parameterizations and reveal that the radiation scheme has a pronounced impact in the tropical Atlantic. The CAM radiation simulates a dry precipitation (up to -90%) and cold land-surface temperature (up to -8 K) bias over the Amazon related to an over-representation of low-level clouds and almost basin-wide westerly trade wind bias. The Rapid Radiative Transfer Model and Goddard radiation simulates doubled Amazon and Congo Basin precipitation rates and a weak eastern Atlantic trade wind bias. Season-long high-resolution coupled regional model experiments indicate that the initiation of the warm eastern equatorial Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) bias is more sensitive to the local rather than basin-wide trade wind bias and to a wet Congo Basin instead of dry Amazon - which differs from AOGCM simulations. Comparisons between coupled and uncoupled simulations suggest a regional Bjerknes feedback confined to the eastern equatorial Atlantic amplifies the initial SST, wind, and deepened thermocline bias, while barrier layer feedbacks are relatively unimportant. The SST bias in some CRCM simulations resembles the typical AOGCM bias indicating that increasing resolution is unlikely a simple solution to this problem. (orig.)

  6. The tropical rain belts with an annual cycle and a continent model intercomparison project: TRACMIP: TRACMIP

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Voigt, Aiko [Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research - Department Troposphere Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe Germany; Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, New York New York USA; Biasutti, Michela [Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, New York New York USA; Scheff, Jacob [Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, New York New York USA; Bader, Jürgen [Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg Germany; Bordoni, Simona [California Institute of Technology, Pasadena California USA; Codron, Francis [Sorbonne Universités, UPMC Univ Paris 06, Laboratoire d' Océanographie et du Climat, Paris France; Dixon, Ross D. [University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison Wisconsin USA; Jonas, Jeffrey [Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, New York New York USA; Kang, Sarah M. [School of Urban and Environmental Engineering, Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology, Ulsan South Korea; Klingaman, Nicholas P. [National Centre for Atmospheric Science-Climate and Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading UK; Leung, Ruby [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Lu, Jian [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Mapes, Brian [Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Miami, Miami Florida USA; Maroon, Elizabeth A. [Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle Washington USA; McDermid, Sonali [New York University, New York New York USA; Park, Jong-yeon [Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg Germany; Roehrig, Romain [Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques, UMR 3589, Meteo-France/CNRS Toulouse France; Rose, Brian E. J. [University at Albany (State University of New York), Albany New York USA; Russell, Gary L. [NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York New York USA; Seo, Jeongbin [School of Urban and Environmental Engineering, Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology, Ulsan South Korea; Toniazzo, Thomas [Uni Research, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen Norway; Wei, Ho-Hsuan [California Institute of Technology, Pasadena California USA; Yoshimori, Masakazu [Faculty of Environmental Earth Science and Arctic Research Center, Hokkaido University, Sapporo Japan; Vargas Zeppetello, Lucas R. [Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, New York New York USA

    2016-12-02

    This paper introduces the Tropical Rain belts with an Annual cycle and a Continent Model Intercomparison Project (TRACMIP). TRACMIP studies the dynamics of tropical rain belts and their response to past and future radiative forcings through simulations with 13 comprehensive and one simplified atmosphere models coupled to a slab ocean and driven by seasonally-varying insolation. Five idealized experiments, two with an aquaplanet setup and three with a setup with an idealized tropical continent, fill the space between prescribed-SST aquaplanet simulations and realistic simulations provided by CMIP5/6. The simulations reproduce key features of the present-day climate and expected future climate change, including an annual-mean intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) that is located north of the equator and Hadley cells and eddy-driven jets that are similar to the present-day climate. Quadrupling CO2 leads to a northward ITCZ shift and preferential warming in Northern high-latitudes. The simulations show interesting CO2-induced changes in the seasonal excursion of the ITCZ and indicate a possible state-dependence of climate sensitivity. The inclusion of an idealized continent modulates both the control climate and the response to increased CO2; for example it reduces the northward ITCZ shift associated with warming and, in some models, climate sensitivity. In response to eccentricity-driven seasonal insolation changes, seasonal changes in oceanic rainfall are best characterized as a meridional dipole, while seasonal continental rainfall changes tend to be symmetric about the equator. This survey illustrates TRACMIP’s potential to engender a deeper understanding of global and regional climate phenomena and to address pressing questions on past and future climate change.

  7. Model Evidence for Interdecadal Pathway Changes in the Subtropics and Tropics of the South Pacific Ocean

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHANG Rong-Hua; WANG Zhanggui

    2013-01-01

    Numerical simulations using a version of the GFDL/NOAA Modular Ocean Model (MOM 3) are analyzed to demonstrate interdecadal pathway changes from the subtropics to the tropics in the South Pacific Ocean.After the 1976-77 climate shift,the subtropical gyre of the South Pacific underwent significant changes,characterized by a slowing down in its circulation and a southward displacement of its center by about 5°-10° latitude on the western side.The associated circulation altered its flow path in the northwestern part of the subtropical gyre,changing from a direct pathway connecting the subtropics to the tropics before the shift to a more zonal one after.This effectively prevented some subtropical waters from directly entering into the western equatorial Pacific.Since waters transported onto the equator around the subtropical gyre are saline and warm,such changes in the direct pathway and the associated reduction in equatorward exchange from the subtropics to the tropics affected water mass properties downstream in the western equatorial Pacific,causing persisted freshening and cooling of subsurface water as observed after the late 1970s.Previously,changes in gyre strength and advection of temperature anomalies have been invoked as mechanisms for linking the subtropics and tropics on interdecadal time scales.Here we present an additional hypothesis in which geographic shifts in the gyre structure and location (a pathway change) could play a similar role.

  8. Why Do Model Tropical Cyclones Grow Progressively in Size and Decay in Intensity after Reaching Maturity

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-08-17

    TROPICAL CYCLONE RESEARCH REPORT TCRR 2: 1–16 (2015) Meteorological Institute Ludwig Maximilians University of Munich Why do model tropical cyclones ...behaviour of tropical cyclones in the prototype problem for cyclone intensification on an f -plane is examined using a nonhydrostatic, three-dimensional...controlling the evolution of size and intensity of a tropical cyclone . It provides also a plausible, and arguably simpler, explanation for the expansion

  9. Extra-tropical origin of equatorial Pacific cold bias in climate models with links to cloud albedo

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burls, Natalie J.; Muir, Leslie; Vincent, Emmanuel M.; Fedorov, Alexey

    2017-09-01

    General circulation models frequently suffer from a substantial cold bias in equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs). For instance, the majority of the climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) have this particular problem (17 out of the 26 models evaluated in the present study). Here, we investigate the extent to which these equatorial cold biases are related to mean climate biases generated in the extra-tropics and then communicated to the equator via the oceanic subtropical cells (STCs). With an evident relationship across the CMIP5 models between equatorial SSTs and upper ocean temperatures in the extra-tropical subduction regions, our analysis suggests that cold SST biases within the extra-tropical Pacific indeed translate into a cold equatorial bias via the STCs. An assessment of the relationship between these extra-tropical SST biases and local surface heat flux components indicates a link to biases in the simulated shortwave fluxes. Further sensitivity studies with a climate model (CESM) in which extra-tropical cloud albedo is systematically varied illustrate the influence of cloud albedo perturbations, not only directly above the oceanic subduction regions but across the extra-tropics, on the equatorial bias. The CESM experiments reveal a quadratic relationship between extra-tropical Pacific albedo and the root-mean-square-error in equatorial SSTs—a relationship with which the CMIP5 models generally agree. Thus, our study suggests that one way to improve the equatorial cold bias in the models is to improve the representation of subtropical and mid-latitude cloud albedo.

  10. Extra-tropical origin of equatorial Pacific cold bias in climate models with links to cloud albedo

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burls, Natalie J.; Muir, Leslie; Vincent, Emmanuel M.; Fedorov, Alexey

    2016-11-01

    General circulation models frequently suffer from a substantial cold bias in equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs). For instance, the majority of the climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) have this particular problem (17 out of the 26 models evaluated in the present study). Here, we investigate the extent to which these equatorial cold biases are related to mean climate biases generated in the extra-tropics and then communicated to the equator via the oceanic subtropical cells (STCs). With an evident relationship across the CMIP5 models between equatorial SSTs and upper ocean temperatures in the extra-tropical subduction regions, our analysis suggests that cold SST biases within the extra-tropical Pacific indeed translate into a cold equatorial bias via the STCs. An assessment of the relationship between these extra-tropical SST biases and local surface heat flux components indicates a link to biases in the simulated shortwave fluxes. Further sensitivity studies with a climate model (CESM) in which extra-tropical cloud albedo is systematically varied illustrate the influence of cloud albedo perturbations, not only directly above the oceanic subduction regions but across the extra-tropics, on the equatorial bias. The CESM experiments reveal a quadratic relationship between extra-tropical Pacific albedo and the root-mean-square-error in equatorial SSTs—a relationship with which the CMIP5 models generally agree. Thus, our study suggests that one way to improve the equatorial cold bias in the models is to improve the representation of subtropical and mid-latitude cloud albedo.

  11. Study of tropical cyclone "Fanoos" using MM5 model – a case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Ramalingeswara Rao

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Tropical cyclones are one of the most intense weather hazards over east coast of India and create a lot of devastation through gale winds and torrential floods while they cross the coast. So an attempt is made in this study to simulate track and intensity of tropical cyclone "Fanoos", which is formed over the Bay of Bengal during 5–10 December 2005 by using mesoscale model MM5. The simulated results are compared with the observed results of India Meteorological Department (IMD; results show that the cumulus parameterization scheme, Kain-Fritsch (KF is more accurately simulated both in track and intensity than the other Betts-Miller (BM and Grell Schemes. The reason for better performance of KF-1 scheme may be due to inclusion of updrafts and downdrafts. The model could predict the minimum Central Sea Level Pressure (CSLP as 983 hPa as compared to the IMD reports of 984 hPa and the wind speed is simulated at maximum 63 m/s compared to the IMD estimates of 65 m/s. Secondly "Fanoos" development from the lagrangian stand point in terms of vertical distribution of Potential Vorticity (PV is also carried out around cyclone centre.

  12. Research priorities for rice pest management in tropical Asia: a simulation analysis of yield losses and management efficiencies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willocquet, Laetitia; Elazegui, Francisco A; Castilla, Nancy; Fernandez, Luzviminda; Fischer, Kenneth S; Peng, Shaobing; Teng, Paul S; Srivastava, R K; Singh, H M; Zhu, Defeng; Savary, Serge

    2004-07-01

    ABSTRACT A simulation study was conducted to assess the current and prospective efficiency of rice pest management and develop research priorities for lowland production situations in tropical Asia. Simulation modeling with the RICEPEST model provided the flexibility required to address varying production situations and diverse pest profiles (bacterial leaf blight, sheath blight, brown spot, leaf blast, neck blast, sheath rot, white heads, dead hearts, brown plant-hoppers, insect defoliators, and weeds). Operational definitions for management efficacy (injury reduction) and management efficiency (yield gain) were developed. This approach enabled the modeling of scenarios pertaining to different pest management strategies within the agroecological contexts of rice production and their associated pest injuries. Rice pests could be classified into two broad research priority-setting categories with respect to simulated yield losses and management efficiencies. One group, including weeds, sheath blight, and brown spot, consists of pests for which effective pest management tools need to be developed. The second group consists of leaf blast, neck blast, bacterial leaf blight, and brown plant-hoppers, for which the efficiency of current management methods is to be maintained. Simulated yield losses in future production situations indicated that a new type of rice plant with high-harvest index and high-biomass production ("New Plant Type") was more vulnerable to pests than hybrid rice. Simulations also indicated that the impact of deployment of host resistance (e.g., through genetic engineering) was much larger when targeted against sheath blight than when targeted against stem borers. Simulated yield losses for combinations of production situations and injury profiles that dominate current lowland rice production in tropical Asia ranged from 140 to 230 g m(-2). For these combinations, the simulated efficiency of current pest management methods, expressed in terms of

  13. A Convective Vorticity Vector Associated With Tropical Convection: A 2D Cloud-Resolving Modeling Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Shou-Ting; Ping, Fan; Li, Xiao-Fan; Tao, Wei-Kuo

    2004-01-01

    Although dry/moist potential vorticity is a useful physical quantity for meteorological analysis, it cannot be applied to the analysis of 2D simulations. A convective vorticity vector (CVV) is introduced in this study to analyze 2D cloud-resolving simulation data associated with 2D tropical convection. The cloud model is forced by the vertical velocity, zonal wind, horizontal advection, and sea surface temperature obtained from the TOGA COARE, and is integrated for a selected 10-day period. The CVV has zonal and vertical components in the 2D x-z frame. Analysis of zonally-averaged and mass-integrated quantities shows that the correlation coefficient between the vertical component of the CVV and the sum of the cloud hydrometeor mixing ratios is 0.81, whereas the correlation coefficient between the zonal component and the sum of the mixing ratios is only 0.18. This indicates that the vertical component of the CVV is closely associated with tropical convection. The tendency equation for the vertical component of the CVV is derived and the zonally-averaged and mass-integrated tendency budgets are analyzed. The tendency of the vertical component of the CVV is determined by the interaction between the vorticity and the zonal gradient of cloud heating. The results demonstrate that the vertical component of the CVV is a cloud-linked parameter and can be used to study tropical convection.

  14. Global warming and tropical Pacific sea surface temperature: Why models and observations do not agree

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coats, Sloan; Karnauskas, Kristopher

    2017-04-01

    The pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Pacific Ocean provides an important control on global climate, necessitating an understanding of how this pattern will change in response to anthropogenic radiative forcing. State-of-the-art climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) overwhelmingly project a decrease in the tropical Pacific zonal SST gradient over the coming century. This decrease is, in part, a response of the ocean to a weakening Walker circulation in the CMIP5 models, a consequence of the mass and energy balances of the hydrologic cycle identified by Held and Soden (2006). CMIP5 models, however, are not able to reproduce the observed increase in the zonal SST gradient between 1900-2013 C.E., which we argue to be robust using advanced statistical techniques and new observational datasets. While this increase is suggestive of the ocean dynamical thermostat mechanism of Clement et al. (1996), we provide evidence that a strengthening Equatorial Undercurrent (EUC) also contributes to eastern equatorial Pacific cooling. Importantly, the strengthening EUC is a response of the ocean to a weakening Walker circulation and thus can help to reconcile the range of opposing theories and observations of anthropogenic climate change in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Because of a newly identified bias in their simulation of equatorial coupled atmosphere-ocean dynamics, however, CMIP5 models do not capture the magnitude of the response of the EUC to anthropogenic radiative forcing. Consequently, they project a continuation of the opposite to what has been observed in the real world, with potentially serious consequences for projected climate impacts that are influenced by the tropical Pacific Ocean.

  15. Prediction and Diagnosis of Typhoon Morakot (2009 Using the Naval Research Laboratory's Mesoscale Tropical Cyclone Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eric A. Hendricks

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Numerical simulations of Typhoon Morakot (2009 were performed using the Naval Research Laboratory¡¦s Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System for Tropical Cyclones (COAMPS-TC. COAMPS-TC was run in real-time in 2009 in the western North Pacific Ocean basin, and simulations of Morakot were executed during its life cycle, from formation through landfall in Taiwan. In this work, an evaluation of the model¡¦s performance is presented. The COAMPS-TC average track errors were small and very close to those of the consensus. Further, the intensity errors were small; the mean absolute intensity error at the 48 h lead time was 9 kt. Particular focus was placed on the 72-h simulation beginning on 1200 UTC 6 August, encompassing the time frame before, during and after landfall. COAMPS-TC was able to predict the structure of Morakot reasonably well before and after landfall, capturing a large asymmetric tropical cyclone with the precipitation shield shifted to the south of its center. Qualitatively, the precipitation forecast was consistent with observations from the Taiwan rain gauge network, as the model was able to predict two maxima, in both the northern and southern portions of the central mountain range. However, the accumulated precipitation maximum in the southern portion of the central mountain range was underpredicted by approximately 50%. The underprediction in precipitation by COAMPS-TC in southern Taiwan was due to four factors: (i the premature dissipation of tropical storm Goni causing errors in the large-scale flow and moisture pattern after landfall, (ii inaccuracies in the spatial location and timing of convective and stratiform precipitation as Morakot interacted with land and the southwest monsoon flow, (iii a simulated track that moved slightly too slow prior to landfall and slightly too fast after landfall, and (iv a horizontal resolution (5-km that may be too coarse to resolve the interaction of convection with the

  16. Numerical simulation of the sensitivity of the Pacific subtropical-tropical meridional cell to global warming

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHOU Tianjun; YU Yongqiang; LIU Hailong; LI Wei; YU Rucong

    2006-01-01

    Sensitivity of the Pacific subtropical-tropical meridional cell to global warming is examined by using a global ocean-atmosphere coupled model developed at LASG/IAP. Results indicate that associated with the increasing of atmospheric carbon dioxide, the most prominent signals of global warming locate at high latitudes, and the change of middle and low latitudes, in particular the surface wind, is relatively weak, which leads to a weak response of the Pacific subtropical-tropical meridional cell. At the time of atmospheric carbon dioxide doubling, the change of the meridional cell strength is smaller than the amplitude of natural variability.

  17. Simulation of nitrous oxide and nitric oxide emissions from tropical primary forests in the Costa Rican Atlantic Zone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Shu-Guang; Reiners, William A.; Keller, Michael; Schimel, Davis S.

    2000-01-01

    Nitrous oxide (N2O) and nitric oxide (NO) are important atmospheric trace gases participating in the regulation of global climate and environment. Predictive models on the emissions of N2O and NO emissions from soil into the atmosphere are required. We modified the CENTURY model (Soil Sci. Soc. Am. J., 51 (1987) 1173) to simulate the emissions of N2O and NO from tropical primary forests in the Atlantic Zone of Costa Rica at a monthly time step. Combined fluxes of N2O and NO were simulated as a function of gross N mineralization and water-filled pore space (WFPS). The coefficients for partitioning N2O from NO were derived from field measurements (Global Biogeochem. Cycles, 8 (1994) 399). The modified CENTURY was calibrated against observations of carbon stocks in various pools of forest ecosystems of the region, and measured WFPS and emission rates of N2O and NO from soil to the atmosphere.

  18. Various Numerical Applications on Tropical Convective Systems Using a Cloud Resolving Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shie, C.-L.; Tao, W.-K.; Simpson, J.

    2003-01-01

    In recent years, increasing attention has been given to cloud resolving models (CRMs or cloud ensemble models-CEMs) for their ability to simulate the radiative-convective system, which plays a significant role in determining the regional heat and moisture budgets in the Tropics. The growing popularity of CRM usage can be credited to its inclusion of crucial and physically relatively realistic features such as explicit cloud-scale dynamics, sophisticated microphysical processes, and explicit cloud-radiation interaction. On the other hand, impacts of the environmental conditions (for example, the large-scale wind fields, heat and moisture advections as well as sea surface temperature) on the convective system can also be plausibly investigated using the CRMs with imposed explicit forcing. In this paper, by basically using a Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model, three different studies on tropical convective systems are briefly presented. Each of these studies serves a different goal as well as uses a different approach. In the first study, which uses more of an idealized approach, the respective impacts of the large-scale horizontal wind shear and surface fluxes on the modeled tropical quasi-equilibrium states of temperature and water vapor are examined. In this 2-D study, the imposed large-scale horizontal wind shear is ideally either nudged (wind shear maintained strong) or mixed (wind shear weakened), while the minimum surface wind speed used for computing surface fluxes varies among various numerical experiments. For the second study, a handful of real tropical episodes (TRMM Kwajalein Experiment - KWAJEX, 1999; TRMM South China Sea Monsoon Experiment - SCSMEX, 1998) have been simulated such that several major atmospheric characteristics such as the rainfall amount and its associated stratiform contribution, the Qlheat and Q2/moisture budgets are investigated. In this study, the observed large-scale heat and moisture advections are continuously applied to the 2-D

  19. Simulated birdwatchers' playback affects the behavior of two tropical birds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, J Berton C; Haskell, David G

    2013-01-01

    Although recreational birdwatchers may benefit conservation by generating interest in birds, they may also have negative effects. One such potentially negative impact is the widespread use of recorded vocalizations, or "playback," to attract birds of interest, including range-restricted and threatened species. Although playback has been widely used to test hypotheses about the evolution of behavior, no peer-reviewed study has examined the impacts of playback in a birdwatching context on avian behavior. We studied the effects of simulated birdwatchers' playback on the vocal behavior of Plain-tailed Wrens Thryothorus euophrys and Rufous Antpittas Grallaria rufula in Ecuador. Study species' vocal behavior was monitored for an hour after playing either a single bout of five minutes of song or a control treatment of background noise. We also studied the effects of daily five minute playback on five groups of wrens over 20 days. In single bout experiments, antpittas made more vocalizations of all types, except for trills, after playback compared to controls. Wrens sang more duets after playback, but did not produce more contact calls. In repeated playback experiments, wren responses were strong at first, but hardly detectable by day 12. During the study, one study group built a nest, apparently unperturbed, near a playback site. The playback-induced habituation and changes in vocal behavior we observed suggest that scientists should consider birdwatching activity when selecting research sites so that results are not biased by birdwatchers' playback. Increased vocalizations after playback could be interpreted as a negative effect of playback if birds expend energy, become stressed, or divert time from other activities. In contrast, the habituation we documented suggests that frequent, regular birdwatchers' playback may have minor effects on wren behavior.

  20. Simulated birdwatchers' playback affects the behavior of two tropical birds.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J Berton C Harris

    Full Text Available Although recreational birdwatchers may benefit conservation by generating interest in birds, they may also have negative effects. One such potentially negative impact is the widespread use of recorded vocalizations, or "playback," to attract birds of interest, including range-restricted and threatened species. Although playback has been widely used to test hypotheses about the evolution of behavior, no peer-reviewed study has examined the impacts of playback in a birdwatching context on avian behavior. We studied the effects of simulated birdwatchers' playback on the vocal behavior of Plain-tailed Wrens Thryothorus euophrys and Rufous Antpittas Grallaria rufula in Ecuador. Study species' vocal behavior was monitored for an hour after playing either a single bout of five minutes of song or a control treatment of background noise. We also studied the effects of daily five minute playback on five groups of wrens over 20 days. In single bout experiments, antpittas made more vocalizations of all types, except for trills, after playback compared to controls. Wrens sang more duets after playback, but did not produce more contact calls. In repeated playback experiments, wren responses were strong at first, but hardly detectable by day 12. During the study, one study group built a nest, apparently unperturbed, near a playback site. The playback-induced habituation and changes in vocal behavior we observed suggest that scientists should consider birdwatching activity when selecting research sites so that results are not biased by birdwatchers' playback. Increased vocalizations after playback could be interpreted as a negative effect of playback if birds expend energy, become stressed, or divert time from other activities. In contrast, the habituation we documented suggests that frequent, regular birdwatchers' playback may have minor effects on wren behavior.

  1. Wake modeling and simulation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Gunner Chr.; Madsen Aagaard, Helge; Larsen, Torben J.;

    , have the potential to include also mutual wake interaction phenomenons. The basic conjecture behind the dynamic wake meandering (DWM) model is that wake transportation in the atmospheric boundary layer is driven by the large scale lateral- and vertical turbulence components. Based on this conjecture...... and trailed vorticity, has been approached by a simple semi-empirical model essentially based on an eddy viscosity philosophy. Contrary to previous attempts to model wake loading, the DWM approach opens for a unifying description in the sense that turbine power- and load aspects can be treated simultaneously...... methodology has been implemented in the aeroelastic code HAWC2, and example simulations of wake situations, from the small Tjæreborg wind farm, have been performed showing satisfactory agreement between predictions and measurements...

  2. CMIP5 Simulations of Low-Level Tropospheric Temperature and Moisture over Tropical Americas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carvalho, L. V.; Jones, C.

    2012-12-01

    Global warming has been linked to systematic changes in North and South Americas climates and may severely impact the North American and South American Monsoon systems (NAMS and SAMS, respectively). Monsoon characteristics (e.g, onset, duration and seasonal amplitude) depend greatly on the magnitude and spatial extent of the land-ocean temperature contrast and atmospheric moisture content, among other factors. This study examines interannual-to-decadal variations and changes in the low-troposphere (850hPa) temperature (T850) and specific humidity (Q850) over the NAMS and SAMS using NCEP/NCAR and CFSR reanalyses and fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) simulations for two scenarios: "historical" and high emission representative concentration pathways "RCP8.5". Trends in the magnitude and area of the 85th percentiles were distinctly examined over SAMS and NAMS regions during the peak of the respective monsoon seasons. The historical simulations (1951-2005) and the two reanalyses agree well and indicate that significant warming has occurred over tropical South America with a remarkable increase in the area and magnitude of the 85th percentile in the last decade (1996-2005). The RCP8.5 CMIP5 ensemble mean projects an increase in the T850 85th percentile of about 2.5oC (2.8oC) by 2050 and 4.8oC (5.5oC) over South America (North America) by 2095 relative to 1955. The area of South America (North America) with T850 ≥ the 85th percentile is projected to increase from ~10% (15%) in 1955 to ~58% (~33%) by 2050 and ~80% (~50%) by 2095. This progressive warming is associated with an increase in the 85th percentile of Q850 of about 3g kg-1 over SAMS and NAMS by 2095.

  3. Relationships between convective asymmetry, imbalance and intensity in numerically simulated tropical cyclones

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David A. Schecter

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available This article examines the relationships between convective asymmetry (CA, imbalance and intensity in tropical cyclones (TCs that emerge from random winds on the periodic f-plane in a cloud-system-resolving numerical model. The model is configured with warm-rain microphysics and includes a basic parameterisation of long-wave radiation. Within the simulation set, the sea-surface temperature ranges from 26 to 32°C, and the Coriolis parameter f ranges from 10−5 to 10−4 s−1. The number of TCs that develop in a simulation increases rapidly with f and ranges from 1 to 18. Taken together, the simulations provide a diverse spectrum of vortices that can be used for a meaningful statistical study.Consistent with earlier studies, mature TCs with minimal asymmetry are found to have maximum wind speeds greater than the classic theoretical value derived by Emanuel under the assumptions of gradient-wind and hydrostatic balance. In a statistical sense, it is found that the degree of superintensity with respect to balance theory reliably decays with an increasing level of inner-core CA. It is verified that a more recent version of axisymmetric steady-state theory, revised to incorporate imbalance, provides a good approximation for the maximum (azimuthally averaged azimuthal wind speed V max when CA is relatively weak. More notably, this theory for axisymmetric vortices maintains less than 10% error as CA becomes comparable in magnitude to the symmetric component of inner-core convection. Above a large but finite threshold of CA, axisymmetric steady-state theory generally over-predicts V max. The underachievement of TCs in this parameter regime is shown to coincide with substantial violation of the theoretical assumption of slantwise convective neutrality in the main updraft of the basic state. Of further interest, a reliable curve-fit is obtained for the anticorrelation between a simple measure of CA and V max normalised to an estimate of its balanced

  4. WRF simulation of the heavy rainfall over Metropolitan Manila, Philippines during tropical cyclone Ketsana: a sensitivity study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cruz, F. T.; Narisma, G. T.

    2016-08-01

    In September 2009, tropical cyclone Ketsana brought record rainfall over Metropolitan Manila, Philippines, resulting in widespread flooding and incapacitated the city for days. The extensive damage caused by heavy rainfall events such as this highlights the need to have an effective weather prediction model to forecast these extreme events for the Philippines. As an initial step towards this goal, this study aims to examine the sensitivity of the rainfall simulation of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to the physical parameterization schemes related to the planetary boundary layer (PBL) and microphysics processes. Comparison with observation data shows that the PBL scheme influences the spatial distribution of rainfall, whereas the microphysics scheme can affect rainfall magnitudes. The PBL scheme can also affect the intensity and track of the tropical cyclone as indicated in the surface latent heat flux and vertical velocity, as well as the magnitude of the mixing ratio of the different hydrometeors, which consequently affects the simulated rainfall. On the other hand, microphysics schemes can also influence the vertical distribution of each hydrometeor, likely due to differences in the treatment of ice phase processes and its interaction with the PBL scheme. Among the schemes tested, the model simulation using the ACM2 PBL and the WSM6 microphysics schemes captures this particular heavy rainfall event, in terms of spatial distribution, amount and timing. The results of this study show the importance of the PBL and microphysics schemes in simulating heavy rainfall, as well as the high potential of using WRF for future forecasts, especially for extreme weather events in the Philippines.

  5. Modeling a tropical rainforest river basin in the Philippines using the distributed hydrologic model MOBIDIC

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castillo, A. E.

    2013-12-01

    The MOdello Bilancio Idrologico DIstributo e Continuo (MOBIDIC), a distributed physics-based hydrologic model that solves both mass and energy balance, was used to investigate a 103 sq. km. mountainous river basin in southern Philippines. The basin is covered by tropical rain forest (TRF) with small patches of upland crop cultivation, and underlain by thin clayey soil over porous volcanic tuff geology. Aside from being the first application of MOBIDIC on a TRF basin, this paper also demonstrates how a sophisticated hydrologic model can be developed using freely- and globally-available remotely-sensed data, plus only minimal field observations and streamflow measurements. Based on simulation of water years 2009-2012, the average annual rainfall of 3,877 mm was partitioned into 22% quick flow, 38% base flow, 37% evapotranspiration, and 3% recharge to the regional groundwater system. The vegetation intercepts about 12% of the total rainfall, and the soil layer is almost always at or above field capacity. Simulations of some scenarios indicate that climate change will have greater impact than loss of vegetative cover, and the impact is more signicant on the low flow than the peak flow regime. Hopefully, these insights will be of use to local decision makers as they improve their systems for water supply, watershed management, and climate change impact mitigation. Maps of the Tamugan River Basin showing the location, topography, river network and hydromet stations Effects of loss of vegetation

  6. The climate responses of tropical and boreal ecosystems with an improved land surface model (JULES)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harper, Anna; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Cox, Peter; Wiltshire, Andy; Jones, Chris

    2016-04-01

    The Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) is the land surface of the next generation UK Earth System Model (UKESM1). Recently, JULES was updated with new plant functional types and physiology based on a global plant trait database. These developments improved the simulation of terrestrial gross and net primary productivity on local and global scales, and enabled a more realistic representation of the global distribution of vegetation. In this study, we explore the present-day distribution of ecosystems and their vulnerability to climate change in JULES with these improvements, focusing on tropical and boreal ecosystems. Changes to these ecosystems will have implications for biogeophysical and biogeochemical feedbacks to climate change and need to be understood. First, we examine the simulated and observed rainforest-savannah boundary, which is strongly related to annual precipitation and the maximum climatological water deficit. Second, we assess the length of growing season and biomass stored in boreal ecosystems, where 20th century warming has likely extended the growing season. In each case, we first evaluate the ability of JULES to capture observed climate-vegetation relationships and trends. Finally, we run JULES to 2100 using climate data from 3 models and 2 RCP scenarios, and examine potential 21st century changes to these ecosystems. For example, do the tropical forests shrink in response to changes in tropical rainfall seasonality? And, how does the composition of boreal ecosystems change in response to climate warming? Given the potential for climate feedbacks and the inherent value in these ecosystems, it is essential to assess their responses to a range of climate change scenarios.

  7. A ubiquitous ice size bias in simulations of tropical deep convection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. W. Stanford

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available The High Altitude Ice Crystals – High Ice Water Content (HAIC-HIWC joint field campaign produced aircraft retrievals of total condensed water content (TWC, hydrometeor particle size distributions (PSDs, and vertical velocity (w in high ice water content regions of mature and decaying tropical mesoscale convective systems (MCSs. The resulting dataset is used here to explore causes of the commonly documented high bias in radar reflectivity within cloud-resolving simulations of deep convection. This bias has been linked to overly strong simulated convective updrafts lofting excessive condensate mass but is also modulated by parameterizations of hydrometeor size distributions, single particle properties, species separation, and microphysical processes. Observations are compared with three Weather Research and Forecasting model simulations of an observed MCS using different microphysics parameterizations while controlling for w, TWC, and temperature. Two popular bulk microphysics schemes (Thompson and Morrison and one bin microphysics scheme (fast spectral bin microphysics are compared. For temperatures between −10 and −40 °C and TWC  >  1 g m−3, all microphysics schemes produce median mass diameters (MMDs that are generally larger than observed, and the precipitating ice species that controls this size bias varies by scheme, temperature, and w. Despite a much greater number of samples, all simulations fail to reproduce observed high-TWC conditions ( >  2 g m−3 between −20 and −40 °C in which only a small fraction of condensate mass is found in relatively large particle sizes greater than 1 mm in diameter. Although more mass is distributed to large particle sizes relative to those observed across all schemes when controlling for temperature, w, and TWC, differences with observations are significantly variable between the schemes tested. As a result, this bias is hypothesized to partly result from

  8. Delay modeling in logic simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Acken, J. M.; Goldstein, L. H.

    1980-01-01

    As digital integrated circuit size and complexity increases, the need for accurate and efficient computer simulation increases. Logic simulators such as SALOGS (SAndia LOGic Simulator), which utilize transition states in addition to the normal stable states, provide more accurate analysis than is possible with traditional logic simulators. Furthermore, the computational complexity of this analysis is far lower than that of circuit simulation such as SPICE. An eight-value logic simulation environment allows the use of accurate delay models that incorporate both element response and transition times. Thus, timing simulation with an accuracy approaching that of circuit simulation can be accomplished with an efficiency comparable to that of logic simulation. 4 figures.

  9. Tropical widening in models, reanalyses, and satellite observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, S. M.; Rosenlof, K. H.; Young, P. J.

    2012-12-01

    Poleward migration of the latitudinal edge of the tropics of ~0.25 - 3° decade-1 has been reported in several recent studies based on satellite, radiosonde, and reanalysis data covering the past ~30 years. Disagreements between models and observations have been noted, and to date, it has been unclear to what extent this large range of trends can be explained by the use of different data sources, time periods, and edge definitions. In this presentation, we address these issues by applying a suite of tropical edge latitude diagnostics based on tropopause height, winds, precipitation/evaporation, and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) to six reanalyses and four satellite data sets. These diagnostics include both previously used definitions and new definitions designed for more robust detection. The wide range of widening trends is shown to be primarily due to the use of different data sets and edge definitions, and only secondarily due to varying start/end dates. We also show that the large trends (> ~ 1° decade-1) previously reported in tropopause and OLR diagnostics are partially due to the use of subjective definitions based on absolute thresholds. Statistically significant Hadley cell expansion based on the mean meridional streamfunction of ~1.0° decade-1 is present in all but one reanalysis, whereas other diagnostics yield trends of -0.5 - 0.8° decade-1 that are mostly insignificant. These results are compared to coupled model trends calculated over both the 20th and 21st centuries.

  10. Direct Nitrous Oxide Emissions From Tropical And Sub-Tropical Agricultural Systems - A Review And Modelling Of Emission Factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albanito, Fabrizio; Lebender, Ulrike; Cornulier, Thomas; Sapkota, Tek B.; Brentrup, Frank; Stirling, Clare; Hillier, Jon

    2017-03-01

    There has been much debate about the uncertainties associated with the estimation of direct and indirect agricultural nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions in developing countries and in particular from tropical regions. In this study, we report an up-to-date review of the information published in peer-review journals on direct N2O emissions from agricultural systems in tropical and sub-tropical regions. We statistically analyze net-N2O-N emissions to estimate tropic-specific annual N2O emission factors (N2O-EFs) using a Generalized Additive Mixed Model (GAMM) which allowed the effects of multiple covariates to be modelled as linear or smooth non-linear continuous functions. Overall the mean N2O-EF was 1.2% for the tropics and sub-tropics, thus within the uncertainty range of IPCC-EF. On a regional basis, mean N2O-EFs were 1.4% for Africa, 1.1%, for Asia, 0.9% for Australia and 1.3% for Central & South America. Our annual N2O-EFs, estimated for a range of fertiliser rates using the available data, do not support recent studies hypothesising non-linear increase N2O-EFs as a function of applied N. Our findings highlight that in reporting annual N2O emissions and estimating N2O-EFs, particular attention should be paid in modelling the effect of study length on response of N2O.

  11. Impact of horizontal resolution on prediction of tropical cyclones over Bay of Bengal using a regional weather prediction model

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    M Mandal; U C Mohanty; K V J Potty; A Sarkar

    2003-03-01

    The present study is carried out to examine the performance of a regional atmospheric model in forecasting tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal and its sensitivity to horizontal resolution. Two cyclones, which formed over the Bay of Bengal during the years 1995 and 1997, are simulated using a regional weather prediction model with two horizontal resolutions of 165km and 55 km. The model is found to perform reasonably well towards simulation of the storms. The structure, intensity and track of the cyclones are found to be better simulated by finer resolution of the model as compared to the coarse resolution. Rainfall amount and its distribution are also found to be sensitive to the model horizontal resolution. Other important fields, viz., vertical velocity, horizontal divergence and horizontal moisture flux are also found to be sensitive to model horizontal resolution and are better simulated by the model with finer horizontal grids.

  12. Technical Note: Approximate Bayesian parameterization of a complex tropical forest model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Hartig

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Inverse parameter estimation of process-based models is a long-standing problem in ecology and evolution. A key problem of inverse parameter estimation is to define a metric that quantifies how well model predictions fit to the data. Such a metric can be expressed by general cost or objective functions, but statistical inversion approaches are based on a particular metric, the probability of observing the data given the model, known as the likelihood. Deriving likelihoods for dynamic models requires making assumptions about the probability for observations to deviate from mean model predictions. For technical reasons, these assumptions are usually derived without explicit consideration of the processes in the simulation. Only in recent years have new methods become available that allow generating likelihoods directly from stochastic simulations. Previous applications of these approximate Bayesian methods have concentrated on relatively simple models. Here, we report on the application of a simulation-based likelihood approximation for FORMIND, a parameter-rich individual-based model of tropical forest dynamics. We show that approximate Bayesian inference, based on a parametric likelihood approximation placed in a conventional MCMC, performs well in retrieving known parameter values from virtual field data generated by the forest model. We analyze the results of the parameter estimation, examine the sensitivity towards the choice and aggregation of model outputs and observed data (summary statistics, and show results from using this method to fit the FORMIND model to field data from an Ecuadorian tropical forest. Finally, we discuss differences of this approach to Approximate Bayesian Computing (ABC, another commonly used method to generate simulation-based likelihood approximations. Our results demonstrate that simulation-based inference, which offers considerable conceptual advantages over more traditional methods for inverse parameter

  13. Toward forward modeling for paleoclimatic proxy signal calibration: A case study with oxygen isotopic composition of tropical woods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, M. N.

    2007-07-01

    A forward model of the oxygen isotopic composition (δ18O) of wood cellulose is parameterized for time series prediction in tropical environments and driven with meteorological data observed at La Selva Biological Research Station, Costa Rica, for 1985-2001. Monthly-resolution model results correlate modestly (r = 0.34, p Selva suggests that isotopic variations are strongly controlled by rainfall amount. The model simulates an analogous but stronger than observed negative isotopic anomaly associated with positive July-September rainfall anomalies during El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) warm phase event years. Simulated tree isotope data for the global tropics suggest that a network of well-replicated data series from selected locations may resolve the large-scale precipitation anomaly pattern associated with ENSO.

  14. Transformations for temperature flux in multiscale models of the tropics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Biello, Joseph A.; Majda, Andrew J. [New York University, Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences, New York, NY (United States)

    2006-11-15

    How much of the observed planetary-scale heating in the tropics is due to eddy flux convergence? A mathematical framework to address this important practical issue is developed here. We describe a pair of velocity transformations that remove components of the upscale temperature flux in the multiscale intraseasonal, planetary, equatorial synoptic-scale dynamics (IPESD) framework derived by Majda and Klein [J. Atmos. Sci. 60: 393-408, (2003)]. Using examples from the models of the Madden-Julian Oscillation of Biello and Majda [Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 101: 4736-4741, (2004); J. Atmos. Sci. 62: 1694-1721, (2005); Dyn. Oceans Atmos., in press] we demonstrate that the transformation for the meridional temperature flux convergence is possible with any restrictions on the heating profile, we show under which conditions the transformation for the vertical temperature flux convergence exists and, further, that the meridional transformation leads to a reinterpretation of lower troposphere Ekman dissipation as active heating plus zonal momentum drag. The meridional temperature flux transformation and induced meridional circulation is a new, tropical wave example of the transformed Eulerian mean theory in the case of strong vertical stratification of potential temperature. The asymptotic ordering of the flows means that the removal of the meridional temperature flux convergence has implications for how planetary-scale heating rates are inferred from velocity convergence measurements. (orig.)

  15. Environmental Modeling, Technology, and Communication for Land Falling Tropical Cyclone/Hurricane Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul Tchounwou

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Katrina (a tropical cyclone/hurricane began to strengthen reaching a Category 5 storm on 28th August, 2005 and its winds reached peak intensity of 175 mph and pressure levels as low as 902 mb. Katrina eventually weakened to a category 3 storm and made a landfall in Plaquemines Parish, Louisiana, Gulf of Mexico, south of Buras on 29th August 2005. We investigate the time series intensity change of the hurricane Katrina using environmental modeling and technology tools to develop an early and advanced warning and prediction system. Environmental Mesoscale Model (Weather Research Forecast, WRF simulations are used for prediction of intensity change and track of the hurricane Katrina. The model is run on a doubly nested domain centered over the central Gulf of Mexico, with grid spacing of 90 km and 30 km for 6 h periods, from August 28th to August 30th. The model results are in good agreement with the observations suggesting that the model is capable of simulating the surface features, intensity change and track and precipitation associated with hurricane Katrina. We computed the maximum vertical velocities (Wmax using Convective Available Kinetic Energy (CAPE obtained at the equilibrium level (EL, from atmospheric soundings over the Gulf Coast stations during the hurricane land falling for the period August 21–30, 2005. The large vertical atmospheric motions associated with the land falling hurricane Katrina produced severe weather including thunderstorms and tornadoes 2–3 days before landfall. The environmental modeling simulations in combination with sounding data show that the tools may be used as an advanced prediction and communication system (APCS for land falling tropical cyclones/hurricanes.

  16. Environmental modeling, technology, and communication for land falling tropical cyclone/hurricane prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tuluri, Francis; Reddy, R Suseela; Anjaneyulu, Y; Colonias, John; Tchounwou, Paul

    2010-05-01

    Katrina (a tropical cyclone/hurricane) began to strengthen reaching a Category 5 storm on 28th August, 2005 and its winds reached peak intensity of 175 mph and pressure levels as low as 902 mb. Katrina eventually weakened to a category 3 storm and made a landfall in Plaquemines Parish, Louisiana, Gulf of Mexico, south of Buras on 29th August 2005. We investigate the time series intensity change of the hurricane Katrina using environmental modeling and technology tools to develop an early and advanced warning and prediction system. Environmental Mesoscale Model (Weather Research Forecast, WRF) simulations are used for prediction of intensity change and track of the hurricane Katrina. The model is run on a doubly nested domain centered over the central Gulf of Mexico, with grid spacing of 90 km and 30 km for 6 h periods, from August 28th to August 30th. The model results are in good agreement with the observations suggesting that the model is capable of simulating the surface features, intensity change and track and precipitation associated with hurricane Katrina. We computed the maximum vertical velocities (W(max)) using Convective Available Kinetic Energy (CAPE) obtained at the equilibrium level (EL), from atmospheric soundings over the Gulf Coast stations during the hurricane land falling for the period August 21-30, 2005. The large vertical atmospheric motions associated with the land falling hurricane Katrina produced severe weather including thunderstorms and tornadoes 2-3 days before landfall. The environmental modeling simulations in combination with sounding data show that the tools may be used as an advanced prediction and communication system (APCS) for land falling tropical cyclones/hurricanes.

  17. Preparations, models, and simulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rheinberger, Hans-Jörg

    2015-01-01

    This paper proposes an outline for a typology of the different forms that scientific objects can take in the life sciences. The first section discusses preparations (or specimens)--a form of scientific object that accompanied the development of modern biology in different guises from the seventeenth century to the present: as anatomical-morphological specimens, as microscopic cuts, and as biochemical preparations. In the second section, the characteristics of models in biology are discussed. They became prominent from the end of the nineteenth century onwards. Some remarks on the role of simulations--characterising the life sciences of the turn from the twentieth to the twenty-first century--conclude the paper.

  18. A modulating effect of Tropical Instability Wave (TIW)-induced surface wind feedback in a hybrid coupled model of the tropical Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Rong-Hua

    2016-10-01

    Tropical Instability Waves (TIWs) and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are two air-sea coupling phenomena that are prominent in the tropical Pacific, occurring at vastly different space-time scales. It has been challenging to adequately represent both of these processes within a large-scale coupled climate model, which has led to a poor understanding of the interactions between TIW-induced feedback and ENSO. In this study, a novel modeling system was developed that allows representation of TIW-scale air-sea coupling and its interaction with ENSO. Satellite data were first used to derive an empirical model for TIW-induced sea surface wind stress perturbations (τTIW). The model was then embedded in a basin-wide hybrid-coupled model (HCM) of the tropical Pacific. Because τTIW were internally determined from TIW-scale sea surface temperatures (SSTTIW) simulated in the ocean model, the wind-SST coupling at TIW scales was interactively represented within the large-scale coupled model. Because the τTIW-SSTTIW coupling part of the model can be turned on or off in the HCM simulations, the related TIW wind feedback effects can be isolated and examined in a straightforward way. Then, the TIW-scale wind feedback effects on the large-scale mean ocean state and interannual variability in the tropical Pacific were investigated based on this embedded system. The interactively represented TIW-scale wind forcing exerted an asymmetric influence on SSTs in the HCM, characterized by a mean-state cooling and by a positive feedback on interannual variability, acting to enhance ENSO amplitude. Roughly speaking, the feedback tends to increase interannual SST variability by approximately 9%. Additionally, there is a tendency for TIW wind to have an effect on the phase transition during ENSO evolution, with slightly shortened interannual oscillation periods. Additional sensitivity experiments were performed to elucidate the details of TIW wind effects on SST evolution during ENSO

  19. A Tangential Wind Profile for Simulating Strong Tropical Cyclones with MM5

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    GAO Shanhong; YANG Bo; WU Zengmao

    2005-01-01

    A new tangential wind profile for simulating strong tropical cyclones is put forward and planted into the NCARAFWA tropical cyclone bogussing scheme in MM5. The scheme for the new profile can make full use of the information from routine typhoon reports, including not only the maximum wind, but also the additional information of the wind speeds of 25.7 and 15.4 ms -1 and their corresponding radii, which are usually provided for strong cyclones. Thus, the new profile can be used to describe the outer structure of cyclones more accurately than by using the earlier scheme of MM5 in which only the maximum wind speed is considered. Numerical experimental forecasts of two strong tropical cyclones are performed to examine the new profile. Results show that by using the new profile the prediction of both cyclones' intensity can be obviously improved, but the effects on the track prediction of the two cyclones are different. It seems that the new profile might be more suitable for strong cyclones with shifted tracks. However, the conclusion is drawn from only two typhoon cases, so more cases are needed to evaluate the new profile.

  20. Eco-hydrological modeling in a tropical area of Vietnam using SWAT model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rafiei Emam, Ammar; Kappas, Martin; Nguyen Hoang Khanh, Linh; Renchin, Tsolmon

    2016-04-01

    The tropical area of Vietnam is suffering from mismanagement of water and land resources which leads to rising floods, surface runoff and soil erosion. We used an eco-hydrological model based on SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) in Aluoi district as a representative case study of Central Vietnam. In addition to water balance calculation we simulated the flooding behavior on a single severe event (16th October 2007) by SWAT model. The model was calibrated based on multi-objective functions for stream flow and actual evapotranspiration (ETa). Nevertheless, observed stream flow was predicted by a regionalization approach and Eta-data were derived from MODIS time-series. The results of calibration and validation of model were pretty good with a high Nash-Sutcliff coefficient of 0.72 and 0.82 for river discharge and 0.77 and 0.79 for ETa, respectively. The monthly average of eight-year simulation (2006-2013) showed that the highest surface runoff occurred in October while the ratio of ETa /rainfall is the lowest, and the lowest surface runoff happened in February when the ratio of Eta /rainfall is the highest. The flooding behavior revealed that the peak flow was under predicted about 10 percent, roughly 1331 m3/s. However, the water depth was estimated approximately 7.5 m in the Main River. This water-level generated overflow of the river banks and led to inundation of land and endangered infrastructure and human life in downstream areas. Hence, best management practices (e.g. Terracing) are recommended to reduce surface runoff and flooding forces in Aluoi district of Vietnam.

  1. Representation of tropical deep convection in atmospheric models – Part 1: Meteorology and comparison with satellite observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. R. Russo

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Fast convective transport in the tropics can efficiently redistribute water vapour and pollutants up to the upper troposphere. In this study we compare tropical convection characteristics for the year 2005 in a range of atmospheric models, including numerical weather prediction (NWP models, chemistry transport models (CTMs, and chemistry-climate models (CCMs. The model runs have been performed within the framework of the SCOUT-O3 (Stratospheric-Climate Links with Emphasis on the Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere project. The characteristics of tropical convection, such as seasonal cycle, land/sea contrast and vertical extent, are analysed using satellite observations as a benchmark for model simulations. The observational datasets used in this work comprise precipitation rates, outgoing longwave radiation, cloud-top pressure, and water vapour from a number of independent sources, including ERA-Interim analyses. Most models are generally able to reproduce the seasonal cycle and strength of precipitation for continental regions but show larger discrepancies with observations for the Maritime Continent region. The frequency distribution of high clouds from models and observations is calculated using highly temporally-resolved (up to 3-hourly cloud top data. The percentage of clouds above 15 km varies significantly between the models. Vertical profiles of water vapour in the upper troposphere-lower stratosphere (UTLS show large differences between the models which can only be partly attributed to temperature differences. If a convective plume reaches above the level of zero net radiative heating, which is estimated to be ~15 km in the tropics, the air detrained from it can be transported upwards by radiative heating into the lower stratosphere. In this context, we discuss the role of tropical convection as a precursor for the transport of short-lived species into the lower stratosphere.

  2. High-Resolution Modeling to Assess Tropical Cyclone Activity in Future Climate Regimes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lackmann, Gary

    2013-06-10

    Applied research is proposed with the following objectives: (i) to determine the most likely level of tropical cyclone intensity and frequency in future climate regimes, (ii) to provide a quantitative measure of uncertainty in these predictions, and (iii) to improve understanding of the linkage between tropical cyclones and the planetary-scale circulation. Current mesoscale weather forecasting models, such as the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, are capable of simulating the full intensity of tropical cyclones (TC) with realistic structures. However, in order to accurately represent both the primary and secondary circulations in these systems, model simulations must be configured with sufficient resolution to explicitly represent convection (omitting the convective parameterization scheme). Most previous numerical studies of TC activity at seasonal and longer time scales have not utilized such explicit convection (EC) model runs. Here, we propose to employ the moving nest capability of WRF to optimally represent TC activity on a seasonal scale using a downscaling approach. The statistical results of a suite of these high-resolution TC simulations will yield a realistic representation of TC intensity on a seasonal basis, while at the same time allowing analysis of the feedback that TCs exert on the larger-scale climate system. Experiments will be driven with analyzed lateral boundary conditions for several recent Atlantic seasons, spanning a range of activity levels and TC track patterns. Results of the ensemble of WRF simulations will then be compared to analyzed TC data in order to determine the extent to which this modeling setup can reproduce recent levels of TC activity. Next, the boundary conditions (sea-surface temperature, tropopause height, and thermal/moisture profiles) from the recent seasons will be altered in a manner consistent with various future GCM/RCM scenarios, but that preserves the large-scale shear and incipient disturbance

  3. Solar response in tropical stratospheric ozone: a 3-D chemical transport model study using ERA reanalyses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Dhomse

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available We have used an off-line 3-D chemical transport model (CTM to investigate the 11-yr solar cycle response in tropical stratospheric ozone. The model is forced with European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF (reanalysis (ERA-40/operational and ERA-Interim data for the 1979–2005 time period. We have compared the modelled solar response in ozone to observation-based data sets that are constructed using satellite instruments such as Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS, Solar Backscatter UltraViolet instrument (SBUV, Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE and Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE. A significant difference is seen between simulated and observed ozone during the 1980s, which is probably due to inhomogeneities in the ERA-40 reanalyses. In general, the model with ERA-Interim dynamics shows better agreement with the observations from 1990 onwards than with ERA-40. Overall both standard model simulations are partially able to simulate a "double peak"-structured ozone solar response with a minimum around 30 km, and these are in better agreement with HALOE than SAGE-corrected SBUV (SBUV/SAGE or SAGE-based data sets. In the tropical lower stratosphere (TLS, the modelled solar response with time-varying aerosols is amplified through aliasing with a volcanic signal, as the model overestimates ozone loss during high aerosol loading years. However, the modelled solar response with fixed dynamics and constant aerosols shows a positive signal which is in better agreement with SBUV/SAGE and SAGE-based data sets in the TLS. Our model simulations suggests that photochemistry contributes to the ozone solar response in this region. The largest model-observation differences occur in the upper stratosphere where SBUV/SAGE and SAGE-based data show a significant (up to 4% solar response whereas the standard model and HALOE do not. This is partly due to a positive solar response in the ECMWF upper stratospheric temperatures which

  4. Modeling washoff of total suspended solids in the tropics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le, S H; Chua, L H C; Irvine, K N; Eikaas, H S

    2017-09-15

    Washoff behavior in the tropics is expected to behave differently from temperate areas due to differences in rainfall characteristics. In this study, rainfall, runoff and total suspended solids (TSS) were monitored from 9 catchments distinguished by different types of land use, in Singapore. The catchments ranged in size from 5.7ha to 85.2ha. Over 120 rain events were studied and more than 1000 storm samples were collected and analyzed. Monte Carlo analysis was applied to obtain the best fit values of the washoff model parameters consisting the washoff coefficient c3, washoff exponent c4 and initial mass on surface Bini. The exponent c4 was found to be approximately unity for all the events monitored, in agreement with other studies. The values of c3 and Bini were found to vary between events. Among all the rainfall and runoff characteristics studied, rainfall depth of the current event (d) was found to be the single parameter that significantly influenced the values of c3 and Bini. Contrary to expectations, Bini did not correlate well with antecedent dry period or with rainfall depth of the prior storm event. The results show that the common modeling practice where Bini is assumed to vary with antecedent dry period and previous rainfall depth should be reassessed when applied to catchments in the tropics. ANCOVA analysis showed that land use was not significant, but rather the variation of c3 and Bini with d was found to correlate well with the catchment area. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Tropical Intraseasonal Variability in 14 IPCC AR4 Climate Models Part I: Convective Signals

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lin, J; Kiladis, G N; Mapes, B E; Weickmann, K M; Sperber, K R; Lin, W; Wheeler, M; Schubert, S D; Genio, A D; Donner, L J; Emori, S; Gueremy, J; Hourdin, F; Rasch, P J; Roeckner, E; Scinocca, J F

    2005-05-06

    This study evaluates the tropical intraseasonal variability, especially the fidelity of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) simulations, in 14 coupled general circulation models (GCMs) participating in the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). Eight years of daily precipitation from each model's 20th century climate simulation are analyzed and compared with daily satellite retrieved precipitation. Space-time spectral analysis is used to obtain the variance and phase speed of dominant convectively coupled equatorial waves, including the MJO, Kelvin, equatorial Rossby (ER), mixed Rossby-gravity (MRG), and eastward inertio-gravity (EIG) and westward inertio-gravity (WIG) waves. The variance and propagation of the MJO, defined as the eastward wavenumbers 1-6, 30-70 day mode, are examined in detail. The results show that current state-of-the-art GCMs still have significant problems and display a wide range of skill in simulating the tropical intraseasonal variability. The total intraseasonal (2-128 day) variance of precipitation is too weak in most of the models. About half of the models have signals of convectively coupled equatorial waves, with Kelvin and MRG-EIG waves especially prominent. However, the variances are generally too weak for all wave modes except the EIG wave, and the phase speeds are generally too fast, being scaled to excessively deep equivalent depths. An interesting result is that this scaling is consistent within a given model across modes, in that both the symmetric and antisymmetric modes scale similarly to a certain equivalent depth. Excessively deep equivalent depths suggest that these models may not have a large enough reduction in their ''effective static stability'' due to diabatic heating. The MJO variance approaches the observed value in only two of the 14 models, but is less than half of the observed value in the other 12 models. The ratio between the eastward MJO variance

  6. Factors affecting the simulated trajectory and intensification of Tropical Cyclone Yasi (2011)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parker, Chelsea L.; Lynch, Amanda H.; Mooney, Priscilla A.

    2017-09-01

    This study investigates the sensitivity of the simulated trajectory, intensification, and forward speed of Tropical Cyclone Yasi to initial conditions, physical parameterizations, and sea surface temperatures. Yasi was a category 5 storm that made landfall in Queensland, Australia in February 2011. A series of simulations were performed using WRF-ARW v3.4.1 driven by ERA-Interim data at the lateral boundaries. To assess these simulations, a new simple skill score is devised to summarize the deviation from observed conditions at landfall. The results demonstrate the sensitivity to initial condition resolution and the need for a new initialization dataset. Ensemble testing of physics parameterizations revealed strong sensitivity to cumulus schemes, with a trade-off between trajectory and intensity accuracy. The Tiedtke scheme produces an accurate trajectory evolution and landfall location. The Kain Fritch scheme is associated with larger errors in trajectory due to a less active shallow convection over the ocean, leading to warmer temperatures at the 700 mb level and a stronger, more poleward steering flow. However, the Kain Fritsch scheme produces more accurate intensities and translation speeds. Tiedtke-derived intensities were weaker due to suppression of deep convection by active shallow convection. Accurate representation of the sea surface temperature through correcting a newly discovered SST lag in reanalysis data or increasing resolution of SST data can improve the simulation. Higher resolution increases relative vorticity and intensity. However, the sea surface boundary had a more pronounced effect on the simulation with the Tiedtke scheme due to its moisture convergence trigger and active shallow convection over the tropical ocean.

  7. Potential use of a regional climate model in seasonal tropical cyclone activity predictions in the western North Pacific

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Au-Yeung, Andie Y.M.; Chan, Johnny C.L. [City University of Hong Kong, Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre, School of Energy and Environment, Kowloon, Hong Kong (China)

    2012-08-15

    This study investigates the potential use of a regional climate model in forecasting seasonal tropical cyclone (TC) activity. A modified version of Regional Climate Model Version 3 (RegCM3) is used to examine the ability of the model to simulate TC genesis and landfalling TC tracks for the active TC season in the western North Pacific. In the model, a TC is identified as a vortex satisfying several conditions, including local maximum relative vorticity at 850 hPa with a value {>=}450 x 10{sup -6} s{sup -1}, and the temperature at 300 hPa being 1 C higher than the average temperature within 15 latitude radius from the TC center. Tracks are traced by following these found vortices. Six-month ensemble (8 members each) simulations are performed for each year from 1982 to 2001 so that the climatology of the model can be compared to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) observed best-track dataset. The 20-year ensemble experiments show that the RegCM3 can be used to simulate vortices with a wind structure and temperature profile similar to those of real TCs. The model also reproduces tracks very similar to those observed with features like genesis in the tropics, recurvature at higher latitudes and landfall/decay. The similarity of the 500-hPa geopotential height patterns between RegCM3 and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts 40 Year Re-analysis (ERA-40) shows that the model can simulate the subtropical high to a large extent. The simulated climatological monthly spatial distributions as well as the interannual variability of TC occurrence are also similar to the JTWC data. These results imply the possibility of producing seasonal forecasts of tropical cyclones using real-time global climate model predictions as boundary conditions for the RegCM3. (orig.)

  8. Performance of WRF in simulating terrain induced flows and atmospheric boundary layer characteristics over the tropical station Gadanki

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hari Prasad, K. B. R. R.; Srinivas, C. V.; Rao, T. Narayana; Naidu, C. V.; Baskaran, R.

    2017-03-01

    In this study the evolution of the topographic flows and boundary layer features over a tropical hilly station Gadanki in southern India were simulated using Advanced Research WRF (ARW) mesoscale model for fair weather days during southwest monsoon (20-22 July 2011) and winter (18-20 Jan. 2011). Turbulence measurements from an Ultra High Frequency (UHF) Wind Profiler, Ultra Sonic Anemometer, GPS Sonde and meteorological tower were used for comparison. Simulations revealed development of small-scale slope winds in the lower boundary layer (below 800 m) at Gadanki which are more prevalent during nighttime. Stronger slope winds during winter and weaker flows in the monsoon season are simulated indicating the sensitivity of slope winds to the background synoptic flows and radiative heating/cooling. Higher upward surface fluxes (sensible, latent heat) and development of very deep convective boundary layer ( 2500 m) is simulated during summer monsoon relative to the winter season in good agreement with observations. Four PBL parameterizations (YSU, MYJ, MYNN and ACM) were evaluated to simulate the above characteristics. Large differences were noticed in the simulated boundary layer features using different PBL schemes in both the seasons. It is found that the TKE-closures (MYJ, MYNN) produced extremities in daytime PBL depth, surface fluxes, temperature, humidity and winds. The differences in the simulations are attributed to the eddy diffusivities, buoyancy and entrainment fluxes which were simulated differently in the respective schemes. The K-based YSU followed by MYNN best produced the slope winds as well as daytime boundary layer characteristics realistically in both the summer and winter synoptic conditions at Gadanki hilly site though with slight overestimation of nocturnal PBL height.

  9. Notes on modeling and simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Redondo, Antonio [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2017-03-10

    These notes present a high-level overview of how modeling and simulation are carried out by practitioners. The discussion is of a general nature; no specific techniques are examined but the activities associated with all modeling and simulation approaches are briefly addressed. There is also a discussion of validation and verification and, at the end, a section on why modeling and simulation are useful.

  10. Simulation of land use change impacts on hydrological processes in a tropical catchment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marhaento, Hero; Booij, Martijn J.; Rientjes, Tom H. M.; Hoekstra, Arjen Y.

    2017-04-01

    Impacts of land use change on the water balance of a catchment are still not fully understood due to climatic interferences. For tropical regions, only few studies have attempted to attribute changes in the water balance to land use change, where some of the results are contradictory and inconsistent, in particular for large catchments (> 100 km2). In this study, we assessed the impacts of land use change on the water balance of the Samin catchment (277.9 km2) on Java, Indonesia using the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model and the baseline-altered method. We divided the simulation period 1990 - 2013 into four equal periods to represent baseline conditions (1990 - 1995) and altered land use conditions (1996 - 2001, 2002 - 2007, and 2008 - 2013). Land use maps for 1994, 2000, 2006 and 2013 were acquired from LANDSAT and ASTER satellite imageries to represent land use cover for each period. A SWAT model was calibrated for the baseline period using land use of the year 1994 and then applied to the altered periods with and without land use change to investigate the contribution of land use change to changes in stream flow. The results show that incorporating land use change in the model simulations resulted in a Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) of 0.7 compared to 0.6 when land use change is ignored. In addition, the error in the simulations without land use change was increasing with time and thus resulted in a deteriorating model performance. Land use change appeared to be the important driver for changes in stream flow and thus allowed to attribute changes in the water balance to land use change. The main land use changes during 1994 - 2013 are a decrease in forest area from 48.7% to 16.9%, an increase in agriculture area from 39.2% to 45.4% and an increase in settlement area from 9.8% to 34.3%. For the catchment, this resulted in an increase of the runoff coefficient from 35.7% to 44.6% and a decrease in the ratio of evapotranspiration to rainfall from 60% to 54

  11. Modeling multiple resource limitation in tropical dry forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medvigy, D.; Xu, X.; Zarakas, C.

    2015-12-01

    Tropical dry forests (TDFs) are characterized by a long dry season when little rain falls. At the same time, many neotropical soils are highly weathered and relatively nutrient poor. Because TDFs are often subject to both water and nutrient constraints, the question of how they will respond to environmental perturbations is both complex and highly interesting. Models, our basic tools for projecting ecosystem responses to global change, can be used to address this question. However, few models have been specifically parameterized for TDFs. Here, we present a new version of the Ecosystem Demography 2 (ED2) model that includes a new parameterization of TDFs. In particular, we focus on the model's framework for representing limitation by multiple resources (carbon, water, nitrogen, and phosphorus). Plant functional types are represented in terms of a dichotomy between "acquisitive" and "conservative" resource acquisition strategies. Depending on their resource acquisition strategy and basic stoichiometry, plants can dynamically adjust their allocation to organs (leaves, stem, roots), symbionts (e.g. N2-fixing bacteria), and mycorrhizal fungi. Several case studies are used to investigate how resource acquisition strategies affect ecosystem responses to environmental perturbations. Results are described in terms of the basic setting (e.g., rich vs. poor soils; longer vs. shorter dry season), and well as the type and magnitude of environmental perturbation (e.g., changes in precipitation or temperature; changes in nitrogen deposition). Implications for ecosystem structure and functioning are discussed.

  12. Simulated sensitivity of the tropical cyclone eyewall replacement cycle to the ambient temperature profile

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Xulin; He, Jie; Ge, Xuyang

    2017-09-01

    In this study, the impacts of the environmental temperature profile on the tropical cyclone eyewall replacement cycle are examined using idealized numerical simulations. It is found that the environmental thermal condition can greatly affect the formation and structure of a secondary eyewall and the intensity change during the eyewall replacement cycle. Simulation with a warmer thermal profile produces a larger moat and a prolonged eyewall replacement cycle. It is revealed that the enhanced static stability greatly suppresses convection, and thus causes slow secondary eyewall formation. The possible processes influencing the decay of inner eyewall convection are investigated. It is revealed that the demise of the inner eyewall is related to a choking effect associated with outer eyewall convection, the radial distribution of moist entropy fluxes within the moat region, the enhanced static stability in the inner-core region, and the interaction between the inner and outer eyewalls due to the barotropic instability. This study motivates further research into how environmental conditions influence tropical cyclone dynamics and thermodynamics.

  13. Including Tropical Croplands in a Terrestrial Biosphere Model: Application to West Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berg, A.; Sultan, B.; de Noblet, N.

    2008-12-01

    Studying the large-scale relationships between climate and agriculture raises two different issues: the impact of climate on crops, and the potential feedbacks to climate from croplands. A relevant framework to consistently address this twofold issue is to extend existing Dynamic Global Vegetation Models, which can be coupled to climate models, in order to explicitly account for croplands. Here we present the first results of such a strategy applied to tropical croplands over West Africa. We introduce directly into the terrestrial biosphere model ORCHIDEE (IPSL) adequate processes and parametrizations taken from the crop model SARRAH (CIRAD), which is calibrated for millet over this region. The resulting model, ORCH-mil, realistically simulates the growth and yield of millet when tested on an experimental station in Senegal. The model is then applied over West Africa using a 36-year climate reanalysis dataset. First the model is tested in terms of yield simulation, against national millet yields from the FAO database. The ability of the model to reproduce the spatial and temporal variability of millet yields is assessed. Then, the effects on land surface fluxes of explicitly accounting for croplands are examined, by comparison between ORCH-mil and ORCHIDEE. These first simulations show consistent results, but underline the need for some further development and validation of the model if it is to simulate yields accurately. In terms of land surface fluxes, significant differences between ORCH-mil and ORCHIDEE appear, mainly via changes in evaporation and albedo. The potential impact on the west African monsoon system of such differences needs to be investigated by coupling ORCH-mil to a climate model: first results from such an experiment will be presented.

  14. Hydroxyl radicals in the tropical troposphere over the Suriname rainforest: comparison of measurements with the box model MECCA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kubistin, D.; Harder, H.; Martinez, M.; Rudolf, M.; Sander, R.; Bozem, H.; Eerdekens, G.; Fischer, H.; Gurk, C.; Klüpfel, T.; Königstedt, R.; Parchatka, U.; Schiller, C. L.; Stickler, A.; Taraborrelli, D.; Williams, J.; Lelieveld, J.

    2010-10-01

    As a major source region of the hydroxyl radical OH, the Tropics largely control the oxidation capacity of the atmosphere on a global scale. However, emissions of hydrocarbons from the tropical rainforest that react rapidly with OH can potentially deplete the amount of OH and thereby reduce the oxidation capacity. The airborne GABRIEL field campaign in equatorial South America (Suriname) in October 2005 investigated the influence of the tropical rainforest on the HOx budget (HOx = OH + HO2). The first observations of OH and HO2 over a tropical rainforest are compared to steady state concentrations calculated with the atmospheric chemistry box model MECCA. The important precursors and sinks for HOx chemistry, measured during the campaign, are used as constraining parameters for the simulation of OH and HO2. Significant underestimations of HOx are found by the model over land during the afternoon, with mean ratios of observation to model of 12.2 ± 3.5 and 4.1 ± 1.4 for OH and HO2, respectively. The discrepancy between measurements and simulation results is correlated to the abundance of isoprene. While for low isoprene mixing ratios (above ocean or at altitudes >3 km), observation and simulation agree fairly well, for mixing ratios >200 pptV (<3 km over the rainforest) the model tends to underestimate the HOx observations as a function of isoprene. Box model simulations have been performed with the condensed chemical mechanism of MECCA and with the detailed isoprene reaction scheme of MCM, resulting in similar results for HOx concentrations. Simulations with constrained HO2 concentrations show that the conversion from HO2 to OH in the model is too low. However, by neglecting the isoprene chemistry in the model, observations and simulations agree much better. An OH source similar to the strength of the OH sink via isoprene chemistry is needed in the model to resolve the discrepancy. A possible explanation is that the oxidation of isoprene by OH not only dominates

  15. Analysis of the environments of seven Mediterranean tropical-like storms using an axisymmetric, nonhydrostatic, cloud resolving model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Fita

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Tropical-like storms on the Mediterranean Sea are occasionally observed on satellite images, often with a clear eye surrounded by an axysimmetric cloud structure. These storms sometimes attain hurricane intensity and can severely affect coastal lands. A deep, cut-off, cold-core low is usually observed at mid-upper tropospheric levels in association with the development of these tropical-like systems. In this study we attempt to apply some tools previously used in studies of tropical hurricanes to characterise the environments in which seven known Mediterranean events developed. In particular, an axisymmetric, nonhydrostatic, cloud resolving model is applied to simulate the tropical-like storm genesis and evolution. Results are compared to surface observations when landfall occurred and with satellite microwave derived wind speed measurements over the sea. Finally, sensitivities of the numerical simulations to different factors (e.g. sea surface temperature, vertical humidity profile and size of the initial precursor of the storm are examined.

  16. The sensitivity of subannual and intraseasonal tropical variability to model ocean mixed layer depth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watterson, I. G.

    2002-01-01

    The influence of air-sea interaction on subannual and intraseasonal tropical variability is explored through analysis of three long simulations of the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) with differing ocean specifications: a coupled ocean GCM, a simple 50-m mixed layer model, or climatological sea surface temperatures (SST); together with 50-year simulations with mixed layer depths of 10 m and 20 m. The analysis focuses initially on a signal similar to a Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) contained in the first two empirical orthogonal functions (EOF) of monthly anomalies of tropical 807-hPa winds in January in the coupled model. Time-lag regression is used to demonstrate that these patterns propagate eastward, although at only half the speed of the MJO, and induce perturbations to the Australian monsoon. The specified SST model shows no such propagation. Similar results are then obtained using daily data filtered to retain subannual periods. The eastward propagation speed is faster in the shallower mixed layer cases, with the 10-m case producing speeds close to observations. In the interactive models, surface energy fluxes force SST anomalies propagating ahead of the EOF convergence. These fluxes are largely consistent with evaporation perturbed by wind anomalies to the monsoon westerlies, augmented by solar radiation. The SST anomalies then further perturb the winds, as is confirmed by a separate SST perturbation experiment. From the examination of other seasons, it is seen that air-sea interaction generally enhances the amplitude of the MJO-like patterns. It also enhances their eastward propagation along westerly wind bands. Analysis of zonal wave number one winds confirms the strong sensitivity to mixed layer depth in the amplitude and period of the eastward propagating component, particularly during September through February. The results suggest that air-sea interaction may be important to the

  17. On the Tropical Atlantic SST warm bias in the Kiel Climate model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wahl, Sebastian; Latif, Mojib; Park, Wonsun; Keenlyside, Noel [Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences, Kiel (Germany)

    2011-03-15

    Most of the current coupled general circulation models show a strong warm bias in the eastern Tropical Atlantic. In this paper, various sensitivity experiments with the Kiel Climate Model (KCM) are described. A largely reduced warm bias and an improved seasonal cycle in the eastern Tropical Atlantic are simulated in one particular version of KCM. By comparing the stable and well-tested standard version with the sensitivity experiments and the modified version, mechanisms contributing to the reduction of the eastern Atlantic warm bias are identified and compared to what has been proposed in literature. The error in the spring and early summer zonal winds associated with erroneous zonal precipitation seems to be the key mechanism, and large-scale coupled ocean-atmosphere feedbacks play an important role in reducing the warm bias. Improved winds in boreal spring cause the summer cooling in the eastern Tropical Atlantic (ETA) via shoaling of the thermocline and increased upwelling, and hence reduced sea surface temperature (SST). Reduced SSTs in the summer suppress convection and favor the development of low-level cloud cover in the ETA region. Subsurface ocean structure is shown to be improved, and potentially influences the development of the bias. The strong warm bias along the southeastern coastline is related to underestimation of low-level cloud cover and the associated overestimation of surface shortwave radiation in the same region. Therefore, in addition to the primarily wind forced response at the equator both changes in surface shortwave radiation and outgoing longwave radiation contribute significantly to reduction of the warm bias from summer to fall. (orig.)

  18. Evaluating uncertainty in simulation models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McKay, M.D.; Beckman, R.J.; Morrison, J.D.; Upton, S.C.

    1998-12-01

    The authors discussed some directions for research and development of methods for assessing simulation variability, input uncertainty, and structural model uncertainty. Variance-based measures of importance for input and simulation variables arise naturally when using the quadratic loss function of the difference between the full model prediction y and the restricted prediction {tilde y}. The concluded that generic methods for assessing structural model uncertainty do not now exist. However, methods to analyze structural uncertainty for particular classes of models, like discrete event simulation models, may be attainable.

  19. Simulation Model of a Transient

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jauch, Clemens; Sørensen, Poul; Bak-Jensen, Birgitte

    2005-01-01

    This paper describes the simulation model of a controller that enables an active-stall wind turbine to ride through transient faults. The simulated wind turbine is connected to a simple model of a power system. Certain fault scenarios are specified and the turbine shall be able to sustain operation...... in case of such faults. The design of the controller is described and its performance assessed by simulations. The control strategies are explained and the behaviour of the turbine discussed....

  20. Simulation Model of a Transient

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jauch, Clemens; Sørensen, Poul; Bak-Jensen, Birgitte

    2005-01-01

    This paper describes the simulation model of a controller that enables an active-stall wind turbine to ride through transient faults. The simulated wind turbine is connected to a simple model of a power system. Certain fault scenarios are specified and the turbine shall be able to sustain operation...

  1. The pelagic ecosystem of the tropical Pacific Ocean: dynamic spatial modelling and biological consequences of ENSO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lehodey, Patrick

    A feature of the central equatorial Pacific is a strong divergent equatorial upwelling called the cold tongue, which is favorable to the development of a large zonal band with high levels of primary production. Contiguous to the cold tongue, is the western Pacific warm pool, which is characterized by warmer water with lower levels of primary production. At the top of the food web, the tropical tunas are a major component of the pelagic ecosystem and have their maximum biomass in the warm pool. However, during ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) events, variability is observed in both environmental factors and the spatial distribution of tuna. A Spatial Environmental Population Dynamics Model (SEPODYM) is used to assist in the analysis and interpretation of these fishery oceanographic observations. A modelling approach is described and applied to the population and fisheries of skipjack tuna, one of the top predator species with its greatest biomass in the tropical pelagic ecosystem. Environmental variables are used in the model for delineating the spawning area of skipjack, reproducing the transport of its larvae and juveniles, and simulating tuna forage. The forage production is deduced from a simple ecological transfer based on new primary production with biomass calculated as a single population. The model considers an interaction between predicted tuna density and forage density. A habitat index combining temperature preferences with forage distribution is used to constrain the movement of adult tuna. Results of the simulation allow realistic prediction of the large-scale distribution of the species. There is a remarkable out-of-phase pattern linked to ENSO between the western Pacific region and the cold tongue. This pattern is consistent with the observed movements of skipjack.

  2. Measurements and Modelling of Glyoxal in the Tropical Marine Boundary Layer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stone, D. J.; Walker, H.; Ingham, T.; Whalley, L. K.; Hackenberg, S.; Read, K.; Lee, J. D.; Carpenter, L.; Spracklen, D. V.; Heard, D. E.; Arnold, S.

    2015-12-01

    Glyoxal (CHOCHO) is a reactive volatile organic compound (VOC) produced during the atmospheric oxidation of both anthropogenic VOCs, such as acetylene and benzene, and biogenic VOCs, such as isoprene and monoterpenes. The photo-oxidation of glyoxal leads to the rapid production of peroxy radicals and condensable products, which are expected to result in formation of secondary organic aerosol (SOA). We report new measurements of glyoxal in the tropical marine boundary layer, which were made using laser-induced phosphorescence (LIP) spectroscopy at the Cape Verde Atmospheric Observatory in June and August-September 2014 during the Ocean Reactive Carbon: Chemistry-Climate impacts (ORC3) campaign. The measurement site is marked by an absence of coastal features such as extensive shallows or large seaweed beds, and receives clean, well-processed marine air more than 95 % of the time, with minimal influence from local effects. Maximum glyoxal mixing ratios of ~15 ppt were observed during the ORC3 campaigns, with typical daytime maxima of ~ 5-6 ppt during June and ~ 6-8 ppt during August-September, and nighttime minima of ~ 4 ppt and ~4-5 ptt during June and August-September, respectively. This presentation will summarise these new measurements of glyoxal, in conjunction with box model simulations using the Master Chemical Mechanism (MCM). Simulations are constrained to observations of glyoxal precursors, and are used to investigate the sources and sinks of glyoxal in the tropical marine boundary layer. Model calculations significantly underestimate the observed abundances of glyoxal, indicating the need for additional sources in the model. A number of possible scenarios will be discussed to explain the discrepancy between the measurements and the model.

  3. Sensitivity of simulated tropical climate variability and its global teleconnections to reconstructed volcanic eruptions and solar irradiance fluctuations over the last millennium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khodri, Myriam; Servonnat, Jérome; Fluteau, Frédérique; Gastineau, Guillaume; Alexandrine Sicre, Marie; Mignot, Juliette

    2010-05-01

    Tropical climate variability based on proxy reconstructions for the last millennium suggests important interannual to decadal changes probably modulated by external forcing such as volcanic eruptions and solar irradiance fluctuations. For example these proxy reconstructions suggest a warming of the Pacific warm pool (Newton et al 2009), a low ENSO variance and a northward shift of the ITCZ during periods of increased Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) and low volcanic activity such as during the so-called Warm Medieval Period (Haug et al, 2001; McGregor et al, 2009). The opposite situation is suggested for the Little Ice Age (LIA), a climatic period around the Maunder Minimum characterised by higher volcanic activity and small, yet sizable reduction of the TSI. Furthermore, first evidence suggest a significant role played by such tropical changes in driving teleconnected megaflood/megadroughts and threshold-like response in monsoons over South and North America while modulating significantly the climate of the North Atlantic region during the Warm Medieval Period and the Little Ice Age (Rein et al., 2004; Moy et al., 2002; Conroy et al. 2009; McGregor et al, 2009; Seager et al, 2008; Sicre et al, 2008…). In link with these issues, we will explore tropical Pacific climate variability and its tropical and extra tropical teleconnections in particular over the Americas and North Atlantic, in externally forced and unforced millennial-long simulations run with the IPSL model. This will allow us evaluating the sensitivity of tropical Pacific internal dynamics and global teleconnections to the applied reconstructed volcanic and solar forcings for this period and hopefully shade some light on the processes underlying proxy-based reconstructions for the last millennium climate variability.

  4. Geophysical and botanical monitoring of simulated graves in a tropical rainforest, Colombia, South America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molina, Carlos Martin; Pringle, Jamie K.; Saumett, Miguel; Evans, Gethin T.

    2016-12-01

    In most Latin American countries there are significant numbers of missing people and forced disappearances, currently 80,000 only in Colombia. Successful detection of shallow buried human remains by forensic search teams is currently difficult in varying terrain and climates. Within this research we built four simulated clandestine burial styles in tropical rainforests, as this is a common scenario and depositional environment encountered in Latin America, to gain knowledge of optimum forensic geophysics detection techniques. The results of geophysically monitoring these burials using ground penetrating radar, magnetic susceptibility, bulk ground conductivity and electrical resistivity are presented from one to forty three weeks post-burial. Radar survey results with both the 250 MHz and 500 MHz frequency antennae showed good detection of modern simulated burials on 2D profiles and horizontal time slices but poor detection on the other simulated graves. Magnetic susceptibility, bulk ground conductivity and electrical resistivity results were generally poor at detecting the simulated targets. Observations of botanical variations on the test site show rapid regrowth of Malvaceae and Petiveria alliacea vegetation over all burials that are common in these forests, which can make detection more difficult.

  5. Simulation - modeling - experiment; Simulation - modelisation - experience

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2004-07-01

    After two workshops held in 2001 on the same topics, and in order to make a status of the advances in the domain of simulation and measurements, the main goals proposed for this workshop are: the presentation of the state-of-the-art of tools, methods and experiments in the domains of interest of the Gedepeon research group, the exchange of information about the possibilities of use of computer codes and facilities, about the understanding of physical and chemical phenomena, and about development and experiment needs. This document gathers 18 presentations (slides) among the 19 given at this workshop and dealing with: the deterministic and stochastic codes in reactor physics (Rimpault G.); MURE: an evolution code coupled with MCNP (Meplan O.); neutronic calculation of future reactors at EdF (Lecarpentier D.); advance status of the MCNP/TRIO-U neutronic/thermal-hydraulics coupling (Nuttin A.); the FLICA4/TRIPOLI4 thermal-hydraulics/neutronics coupling (Aniel S.); methods of disturbances and sensitivity analysis of nuclear data in reactor physics, application to VENUS-2 experimental reactor (Bidaud A.); modeling for the reliability improvement of an ADS accelerator (Biarotte J.L.); residual gas compensation of the space charge of intense beams (Ben Ismail A.); experimental determination and numerical modeling of phase equilibrium diagrams of interest in nuclear applications (Gachon J.C.); modeling of irradiation effects (Barbu A.); elastic limit and irradiation damage in Fe-Cr alloys: simulation and experiment (Pontikis V.); experimental measurements of spallation residues, comparison with Monte-Carlo simulation codes (Fallot M.); the spallation target-reactor coupling (Rimpault G.); tools and data (Grouiller J.P.); models in high energy transport codes: status and perspective (Leray S.); other ways of investigation for spallation (Audoin L.); neutrons and light particles production at intermediate energies (20-200 MeV) with iron, lead and uranium targets (Le Colley F

  6. Comparison of observed and simulated spatial patterns of ice microphysical processes in tropical oceanic mesoscale convective systems: Ice Microphysics in Midlevel Inflow

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barnes, Hannah C. [Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle Washington USA; Houze, Robert A. [Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle Washington USA; Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA

    2016-07-25

    To equitably compare the spatial pattern of ice microphysical processes produced by three microphysical parameterizations with each other, observations, and theory, simulations of tropical oceanic mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model were forced to develop the same mesoscale circulations as observations by assimilating radial velocity data from a Doppler radar. The same general layering of microphysical processes was found in observations and simulations with deposition anywhere above the 0°C level, aggregation at and above the 0°C level, melting at and below the 0°C level, and riming near the 0°C level. Thus, this study is consistent with the layered ice microphysical pattern portrayed in previous conceptual models and indicated by dual-polarization radar data. Spatial variability of riming in the simulations suggests that riming in the midlevel inflow is related to convective-scale vertical velocity perturbations. Finally, this study sheds light on limitations of current generally available bulk microphysical parameterizations. In each parameterization, the layers in which aggregation and riming took place were generally too thick and the frequency of riming was generally too high compared to the observations and theory. Additionally, none of the parameterizations produced similar details in every microphysical spatial pattern. Discrepancies in the patterns of microphysical processes between parameterizations likely factor into creating substantial differences in model reflectivity patterns. It is concluded that improved parameterizations of ice-phase microphysics will be essential to obtain reliable, consistent model simulations of tropical oceanic MCSs.

  7. IVOA Recommendation: Simulation Data Model

    CERN Document Server

    Lemson, Gerard; Cervino, Miguel; Gheller, Claudio; Gray, Norman; LePetit, Franck; Louys, Mireille; Ooghe, Benjamin; Wagner, Rick; Wozniak, Herve

    2014-01-01

    In this document and the accompanying documents we describe a data model (Simulation Data Model) describing numerical computer simulations of astrophysical systems. The primary goal of this standard is to support discovery of simulations by describing those aspects of them that scientists might wish to query on, i.e. it is a model for meta-data describing simulations. This document does not propose a protocol for using this model. IVOA protocols are being developed and are supposed to use the model, either in its original form or in a form derived from the model proposed here, but more suited to the particular protocol. The SimDM has been developed in the IVOA Theory Interest Group with assistance of representatives of relevant working groups, in particular DM and Semantics.

  8. Simulation of Meteosat Third Generation-Lightning Imager through tropical rainfall measuring mission: Lightning Imaging Sensor data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biron, Daniele; De Leonibus, Luigi; Laquale, Paolo; Labate, Demetrio; Zauli, Francesco; Melfi, Davide

    2008-08-01

    The Centro Nazionale di Meteorologia e Climatologia Aeronautica recently hosted a fellowship sponsored by Galileo Avionica, with the intent to study and perform a simulation of Meteosat Third Generation - Lightning Imager (MTG-LI) sensor behavior through Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission - Lightning Imaging Sensor data (TRMM-LIS). For the next generation of earth observation geostationary satellite, major operating agencies are planning to insert an optical imaging mission, that continuously observes lightning pulses in the atmosphere; EUMETSAT has decided in recent years that one of the three candidate mission to be flown on MTG is LI, a Lightning Imager. MTG-LI mission has no Meteosat Second Generation heritage, but users need to evaluate the possible real time data output of the instrument to agree in inserting it on MTG payload. Authors took the expected LI design from MTG Mission Requirement Document, and reprocess real lightning dataset, acquired from space by TRMM-LIS instrument, to produce a simulated MTG-LI lightning dataset. The simulation is performed in several run, varying Minimum Detectable Energy, taking into account processing steps from event detection to final lightning information. A definition of the specific meteorological requirements is given from the potential use in meteorology of lightning final information for convection estimation and numerical cloud modeling. Study results show the range of instrument requirements relaxation which lead to minimal reduction in the final lightning information.

  9. Effects of assimilating precipitation zones derived from satellite and lightning data on numerical simulations of tropical-like Mediterranean storms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Fita

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available The scarcity of meteorological observations in maritime areas is a well-known problem that can be an important limitation in the study of different phenomena. Tropical-like storms or medicanes developed over the Mediterranean sea are intense storms with some similarities to the tropical ones. Although they do not reach the hurricane intensity, their potential for damage is very high, due to the densely populated Mediterranean coastal regions. In this study, the two notable cases of medicane development which occurred in the western Mediterranean basin in September 1996 and October 2003, are considered. The capability of mesoscale numerical models to simulate general aspects of such a phenomena has been previously shown. With the aim of improving the numerical results, an adjustment of the humidity vertical profiles in MM5 simulations is performed by means of satellite derived precipitation. Convective and stratiform precipitation types obtained from satellite images are used to individually adjust the profiles. Lightning hits are employed to identify convective grid points. The adjustment of the vertical humidity profiles is carried out in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF analyses used as initial conditions for the simulations. Analyses nudging to ECMWF analyses and to the satellite-based humidity-corrected version of these analyses has also been applied using Four Dimensional Data Assimilation (FDDA. An additional adjustment is applied as observation nudging of satellite/lightning information at different time and spatial resolutions. Statistical parameters are proposed and tested as an objective way to intercompare satellite-derived and simulated trajectories. Simulations of medicanes exhibit a strong sensitivity to vertical humidity profiles. Trajectories of the storms are improved or worsened by using FDDA. A case dependence is obtained on the characteristics of the humidity-corrected medicanes. FDDA sensitivity

  10. Effects of assimilating precipitation zones derived from satellite and lightning data on numerical simulations of tropical-like Mediterranean storms

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fita, L.; Romero, R.; Luque, A.; Ramis, C. [Univ. de les Illes Balears, Palma de Mallorca (Spain). Grup de Meteorologia

    2009-07-01

    The scarcity of meteorological observations in maritime areas is a well-known problem that can be an important limitation in the study of different phenomena. Tropical-like storms or medicanes developed over the Mediterranean sea are intense storms with some similarities to the tropical ones. Although they do not reach the hurricane intensity, their potential for damage is very high, due to the densely populated Mediterranean coastal regions. In this study, the two notable cases of medicane development which occurred in the western Mediterranean basin in September 1996 and October 2003, are considered. The capability of mesoscale numerical models to simulate general aspects of such a phenomena has been previously shown. With the aim of improving the numerical results, an adjustment of the humidity vertical profiles in MM5 simulations is performed by means of satellite derived precipitation. Convective and stratiform precipitation types obtained from satellite images are used to individually adjust the profiles. Lightning hits are employed to identify convective grid points. The adjustment of the vertical humidity profiles is carried out in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analyses used as initial conditions for the simulations. Analyses nudging to ECMWF analyses and to the satellite-based humidity-corrected version of these analyses has also been applied using Four Dimensional Data Assimilation (FDDA). An additional adjustment is applied as observation nudging of satellite/lightning information at different time and spatial resolutions. Statistical parameters are proposed and tested as an objective way to intercompare satellite-derived and simulated trajectories. Simulations of medicanes exhibit a strong sensitivity to vertical humidity profiles. Trajectories of the storms are improved or worsened by using FDDA. A case dependence is obtained on the characteristics of the humidity-corrected medicanes. FDDA sensitivity on temporal and

  11. Tropical Atlantic climate response to different freshwater input in high latitudes with an ocean-only general circulation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Men, Guang; Wan, Xiuquan; Liu, Zedong

    2016-10-01

    Tropical Atlantic climate change is relevant to the variation of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) through different physical processes. Previous coupled climate model simulation suggested a dipole-like SST structure cooling over the North Atlantic and warming over the South Tropical Atlantic in response to the slowdown of the AMOC. Using an ocean-only global ocean model here, an attempt was made to separate the total influence of various AMOC change scenarios into an oceanic-induced component and an atmospheric-induced component. In contrast with previous freshwater-hosing experiments with coupled climate models, the ocean-only modeling presented here shows a surface warming in the whole tropical Atlantic region and the oceanic-induced processes may play an important role in the SST change in the equatorial south Atlantic. Our result shows that the warming is partly governed by oceanic process through the mechanism of oceanic gateway change, which operates in the regime where freshwater forcing is strong, exceeding 0.3 Sv. Strong AMOC change is required for the gateway mechanism to work in our model because only when the AMOC is sufficiently weak, the North Brazil Undercurrent can flow equatorward, carrying warm and salty north Atlantic subtropical gyre water into the equatorial zone. This threshold is likely to be model-dependent. An improved understanding of these issues may have help with abrupt climate change prediction later.

  12. Overview of Theory and Model of Tropical Agricultural Circular Economy in Hainan Province

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2011-01-01

    This paper gives a general overview of rationale of tropical agricultural circular economy.On the basis of ecological economic theory,circular economy is a new model of economic development which aims at realizing reducing of resources use,reuse of products and recycling of wastes,conforming to the principle of 4R.It is to make economic system melt into the process of cycle of material of natural ecological system harmoniously.This paper introduces the advantages of developing tropical agriculture in Hainan Province,the main problems existing in the development and two main models of sustainable tropical agricultural development in Hainan Province at present.9 typical models of tropical agricultural circular economy in Hainan Province are listed in particular,including compound ecological project of forestry and animal husbandry,three-dimensional planting model of plantation,multilayered structure of eucalyptuses,sustainable agricultural model of sightseeing,the model of using animal manure,precision tropical agricultural model,clean production model of tropical agriculture,deep processing model of tropical agricultural products,and the model of ecological agricultural industrialization.Corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are put forward to promote development of tropical agricultural circular economy in Hainan Province as follows:take actions that suit local circumstances,exert advantage and exploit potential;give full play to advantage of integration of production,teaching and research,and promote agriculture by applying scientific and technological advances;the whole staff participate and strengthen construction of soft environment and hard environment.

  13. Predicting the severity of spurious "double ITCZ" problem in CMIP5 coupled models from AMIP simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiang, Baoqiang; Zhao, Ming; Held, Isaac M.; Golaz, Jean-Christophe

    2017-02-01

    The severity of the double Intertropical Convergence Zone (DI) problem in climate models can be measured by a tropical precipitation asymmetry index (PAI), indicating whether tropical precipitation favors the Northern Hemisphere or the Southern Hemisphere. Examination of 19 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 models reveals that the PAI is tightly linked to the tropical sea surface temperature (SST) bias. As one of the factors determining the SST bias, the asymmetry of tropical net surface heat flux in Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) simulations is identified as a skillful predictor of the PAI change from an AMIP to a coupled simulation, with an intermodel correlation of 0.90. Using tropical top-of-atmosphere (TOA) fluxes, the correlations are lower but still strong. However, the extratropical asymmetries of surface and TOA fluxes in AMIP simulations cannot serve as useful predictors of the PAI change. This study suggests that the largest source of the DI bias is from the tropics and from atmospheric models.

  14. Analysis of particulate emissions from tropical biomass burning using a global aerosol model and long-term surface observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reddington, Carly L.; Spracklen, Dominick V.; Artaxo, Paulo; Ridley, David A.; Rizzo, Luciana V.; Arana, Andrea

    2016-09-01

    We use the GLOMAP global aerosol model evaluated against observations of surface particulate matter (PM2.5) and aerosol optical depth (AOD) to better understand the impacts of biomass burning on tropical aerosol over the period 2003 to 2011. Previous studies report a large underestimation of AOD over regions impacted by tropical biomass burning, scaling particulate emissions from fire by up to a factor of 6 to enable the models to simulate observed AOD. To explore the uncertainty in emissions we use three satellite-derived fire emission datasets (GFED3, GFAS1 and FINN1). In these datasets the tropics account for 66-84 % of global particulate emissions from fire. With all emission datasets GLOMAP underestimates dry season PM2.5 concentrations in regions of high fire activity in South America and underestimates AOD over South America, Africa and Southeast Asia. When we assume an upper estimate of aerosol hygroscopicity, underestimation of AOD over tropical regions impacted by biomass burning is reduced relative to previous studies. Where coincident observations of surface PM2.5 and AOD are available we find a greater model underestimation of AOD than PM2.5, even when we assume an upper estimate of aerosol hygroscopicity. Increasing particulate emissions to improve simulation of AOD can therefore lead to overestimation of surface PM2.5 concentrations. We find that scaling FINN1 emissions by a factor of 1.5 prevents underestimation of AOD and surface PM2.5 in most tropical locations except Africa. GFAS1 requires emission scaling factor of 3.4 in most locations with the exception of equatorial Asia where a scaling factor of 1.5 is adequate. Scaling GFED3 emissions by a factor of 1.5 is sufficient in active deforestation regions of South America and equatorial Asia, but a larger scaling factor is required elsewhere. The model with GFED3 emissions poorly simulates observed seasonal variability in surface PM2.5 and AOD in regions where small fires dominate, providing

  15. Using Transport Diagnostics to Understand Chemistry Climate Model Ozone Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strahan, S. E.; Douglass, A. R.; Stolarski, R. S.; Akiyoshi, H.; Bekki, S.; Braesicke, P.; Butchart, N.; Chipperfield, M. P.; Cugnet, D.; Dhomse, S.; Frith, S. M.; Gettleman, A.; Hardiman, S. C.; Kinnison, D. E.; Lamarque, J.-F.; Mancini, E.; Marchand, M.; Michou, M.; Morgenstern, O.; Nakamura, T.; Olivie, D.; Pawson, S.; Pitari, G.; Plummer, D. A.; Pyle, J. A.

    2010-01-01

    We demonstrate how observations of N2O and mean age in the tropical and midlatitude lower stratosphere (LS) can be used to identify realistic transport in models. The results are applied to 15 Chemistry Climate Models (CCMs) participating in the 2010 WMO assessment. Comparison of the observed and simulated N2O/mean age relationship identifies models with fast or slow circulations and reveals details of model ascent and tropical isolation. The use of this process-oriented N2O/mean age diagnostic identifies models with compensating transport deficiencies that produce fortuitous agreement with mean age. We compare the diagnosed model transport behavior with a model's ability to produce realistic LS O3 profiles in the tropics and midlatitudes. Models with the greatest tropical transport problems show the poorest agreement with observations. Models with the most realistic LS transport agree more closely with LS observations and each other. We incorporate the results of the chemistry evaluations in the SPARC CCMVal Report (2010) to explain the range of CCM predictions for the return-to-1980 dates for global (60 S-60 N) and Antarctic column ozone. Later (earlier) Antarctic return dates are generally correlated to higher (lower) vortex Cl(sub y) levels in the LS, and vortex Cl(sub y) is generally correlated with the model's circulation although model Cl(sub y) chemistry or Cl(sub y) conservation can have a significant effect. In both regions, models that have good LS transport produce a smaller range of predictions for the return-to-1980 ozone values. This study suggests that the current range of predicted return dates is unnecessarily large due to identifiable model transport deficiencies.

  16. A global climate model based, Bayesian climate projection for northern extra-tropical land areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arzhanov, Maxim M.; Eliseev, Alexey V.; Mokhov, Igor I.

    2012-04-01

    Projections with contemporary global climate models (GCMs) still markedly deviate from each other on magnitude of climate changes, in particular, in middle to subpolar latitudes. In this work, a climate projection based on the ensemble of 18 CMIP3 GCM models forced by SRES A1B scenario is performed for the northern extra-tropical land. To assess the change of soil state, off-line simulations are performed with the Deep Soil Simulator (DSS) developed at the A.M.Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences (IAP RAS). This model is forced by output of the above-mentioned GCM simulations. Ensemble mean and ensemble standard deviation for any variable are calculated by using Bayesian averaging which allows to enhance a contribution from more realistic models and diminish that from less realistic models. As a result, uncertainty for soil and permafrost variables become substantially narrower. The Bayesian weights for each model are calculated based on their performance for the present-day surface air temperature (SAT) and permafrost distributions, and for SAT trend during the 20th century. The results, except for intra-ensemble standard deviations, are not very sensitive to particular choice of Bayesian traits. Averaged over the northern extra-tropical land, annual mean surface air temperature in the ensemble increases by 3.1 ± 1.4 K (ensemble mean±intra-ensemble standard deviation) during the 21st century. Precipitation robustly increases in the pan-Arctic and decreases in the Mediterranean/Black Sea region. The models agree on near-surface permafrost degradation during the 21st century. The area underlain by near-surface permafrost decreases from the contemporary value 20 ± 3 mln sq. km to 14 ± 3 mln sq. km in the late 21st century. This leads to risk for geocryological hazard due to soil subsidence. This risk is classified as moderate to high in the southern and western parts of Siberia and Tibet in Eurasia, and in the region from Alaska

  17. A modelling case study of a large-scale cirrus in the tropical tropopause layer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Podglajen, A.; Plougonven, R.; Hertzog, A.; Legras, B.

    2015-11-01

    We use the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model to simulate a large-scale tropical tropopause layer (TTL) cirrus, in order to understand the formation and life cycle of the cloud. This cirrus event has been previously described through satellite observations by Taylor et al. (2011). Comparisons of the simulated and observed cirrus show a fair agreement, and validate the reference simulation regarding cloud extension, location and life time. The validated simulation is used to understand the causes of cloud formation. It is shown that several cirrus clouds successively form in the region due to adiabatic cooling and large-scale uplift rather than from ice lofting from convective anvils. The equatorial response (equatorial wave excitation) to a midlatitude potential vorticity (PV) intrusion structures the uplift. Sensitivity tests are then performed to assess the relative importance of the choice of the microphysics parametrisation and of the initial and boundary conditions. The initial dynamical conditions (wind and temperature) essentially control the horizontal location and area of the cloud. On the other hand, the choice of the microphysics scheme influences the ice water content and the cloud vertical position. Last, the fair agreement with the observations allows to estimate the cloud impact in the TTL in the simulations. The cirrus clouds have a small but not negligible impact on the radiative budget of the local TTL. However, the cloud radiative heating does not significantly influence the simulated dynamics. The simulation also provides an estimate of the vertical redistribution of water by the cloud and the results emphasize the importance in our case of both re and dehydration in the vicinity of the cirrus.

  18. A modelling case study of a large-scale cirrus in the tropical tropopause layer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Podglajen, Aurélien; Plougonven, Riwal; Hertzog, Albert; Legras, Bernard

    2016-03-01

    We use the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model to simulate a large-scale tropical tropopause layer (TTL) cirrus in order to understand the formation and life cycle of the cloud. This cirrus event has been previously described through satellite observations by Taylor et al. (2011). Comparisons of the simulated and observed cirrus show a fair agreement and validate the reference simulation regarding cloud extension, location and life time. The validated simulation is used to understand the causes of cloud formation. It is shown that several cirrus clouds successively form in the region due to adiabatic cooling and large-scale uplift rather than from convective anvils. The structure of the uplift is tied to the equatorial response (equatorial wave excitation) to a potential vorticity intrusion from the midlatitudes. Sensitivity tests are then performed to assess the relative importance of the choice of the microphysics parameterization and of the initial and boundary conditions. The initial dynamical conditions (wind and temperature) essentially control the horizontal location and area of the cloud. However, the choice of the microphysics scheme influences the ice water content and the cloud vertical position. Last, the fair agreement with the observations allows to estimate the cloud impact in the TTL in the simulations. The cirrus clouds have a small but not negligible impact on the radiative budget of the local TTL. However, for this particular case, the cloud radiative heating does not significantly influence the simulated dynamics. This result is due to (1) the lifetime of air parcels in the cloud system, which is too short to significantly influence the dynamics, and (2) the fact that induced vertical motions would be comparable to or smaller than the typical mesoscale motions present. Finally, the simulation also provides an estimate of the vertical redistribution of water by the cloud and the results emphasize the importance in our case of both

  19. Understanding and modeling the physical processes that govern the melting of snow cover in a tropical mountain environment in Ecuador

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagnon, P.; Lafaysse, M.; Lejeune, Y.; Maisincho, L.; Rojas, M.; Chazarin, J. P.

    2009-10-01

    The ISBA/CROCUS coupled ground-snow model developed for the Alps and subsequently adapted to the outer tropical conditions of Bolivia has been applied to a full set of meteorological data recorded at 4860 m above sea level on a moraine area in Ecuador (Antizana 15 glacier, 0°28'S; 78°09'W) between 16 June 2005 and 30 June 2006 to determine the physical processes involved in the melting and disappearance of transient snow cover in nonglaciated areas of the inner tropics. Although less accurate than in Bolivia, the model is still able to simulate snow behavior over nonglaciated natural surfaces, as long as the modeled turbulent fluxes over bare ground are reduced and a suitable function is included to represent the partitioning of the surface between bare soil and snow cover. The main difference between the two tropical sites is the wind velocity, which is more than 3 times higher at the Antizana site than at the Bolivian site, leading to a nonuniform spatial distribution of snow over nonglaciated areas that is hard to describe with a simple snow partitioning function. Net solar radiation dominates the surface energy balance and is responsible for the energy stored in snow-free areas (albedo = 0.05) and transferred horizontally to adjacent snow patches by conduction within the upper soil layers and by turbulent advection. These processes can prevent the snow cover from lasting more than a few hours or a few days. Sporadically, and at any time of the year, this inner tropical site, much wetter than the outer tropics, experiences heavy snowfalls, covering all the moraine area, and thus limiting horizontal transfers and inducing a significant time lag between precipitation events and runoff.

  20. Calibration and validation of models for short-term decomposition and N mineralization of plant residues in the tropics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandre Ferreira do Nascimento

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Insight of nutrient release patterns associated with the decomposition of plant residues is important for their effective use as a green manure in food production systems. Thus, this study aimed to evaluate the ability of the Century, APSIM and NDICEA simulation models for predicting the decomposition and N mineralization of crop residues in the tropical Atlantic forest biome, Brazil. The simulation models were calibrated based on actual decomposition and N mineralization rates of three types of crop residues with different chemical and biochemical composition. The models were also validated for different pedo-climatic conditions and crop residues conditions. In general, the accuracy of decomposition and N mineralization improved after calibration. Overall RMSE values for the decomposition and N mineralization of the crop materials varied from 7.4 to 64.6% before models calibration compared to 3.7 to 16.3 % after calibration. Therefore, adequate calibration of the models is indispensable for use them under humid tropical conditions. The NDICEA model generally outperformed the other models. However, the decomposition and N mineralization was not very accurate during the first 30 days of incubation, especially for easily decomposable crop residues. An additional model variable may be required to capture initial microbiological growth as affected by the moisture dynamics of the residues, as is the case in surface residues decomposition models.

  1. Effects of Doubled CO2 on Tropical Sea-Surface Temperature (SSTs) for Onset of Deep Convection and Maximum SST-GCM Simulations Based Inferences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sud, Y. C.; Walker, G. K.; Zhou, Y. P.; Schmidt, Gavin A.; Lau, K. M.; Cahalan, R. F.

    2008-01-01

    A primary concern of CO2-induced warming is the associated rise of tropical (10S-10N) seasurface temperatures (SSTs). GISS Model-E was used to produce two sets of simulations-one with the present-day and one with doubled CO2 in the atmosphere. The intrinsic usefulness of model guidance in the tropics was confirmed when the model simulated realistic convective coupling between SSTs and atmospheric soundings and that the simulated-data correlations between SSTs and 300 hPa moiststatic energies were found to be similar to the observed. Model predicted SST limits: (i) one for the onset of deep convection and (ii) one for maximum SST, increased in the doubled C02 case. Changes in cloud heights, cloud frequencies, and cloud mass-fractions showed that convective-cloud changes increased the SSTs, while warmer mixed-layer of the doubled CO2 contained approximately 10% more water vapor; clearly that would be conducive to more intense storms and hurricanes.

  2. Modelling effects of seasonal variation in water table depth on net ecosystem CO2 exchange of a tropical peatland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Mezbahuddin

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Seasonal variation in water table depth (WTD determines the balance between aggradation and degradation of tropical peatlands. Longer dry seasons together with human interventions (e.g. drainage can cause WTD drawdowns making tropical peatland C storage highly vulnerable. Better predictive capacity for effects of WTD on net CO2 exchange is thus essential to guide conservation of tropical peat deposits. Mathematical modelling of basic eco-hydrological processes under site-specific conditions can provide such predictive capacity. We hereby deploy a mathematical model ecosys to study effects of seasonal variation in WTD on net ecosystem productivity (NEP of an Indonesian peatland. We simulated lower NEPs (~ –2 g C m–2 d–1 during rainy seasons with shallow WTD, higher NEPs (~ +1 g C m–2 d–1 during early dry seasons with intermediate WTD and again lower NEPs (~ –4 g C mm–2 d–1 during late dry seasons with deep WTD during 2002–2005. These values were corroborated by regressions (P 2 fluxes which yielded R2 > 0.8, intercepts approaching 0 and slopes approaching 1. We also simulated a gradual increase in annual NEPs from 2002 (−609 g C m–2 to 2005 (−373 g C m–2 with decreasing WTD which was corroborated by EC-gap filled annual NEP estimates. These WTD effects on NEP were modelled from basic eco-hydrological processes including microbial and root oxidation-reduction reactions driven by soil and root O2 transport and uptake which in turn drove soil and plant C, N and P transformations within a soil-plant-atmosphere water transfer scheme driven by water potential gradients. This modelling should therefore provide a predictive capacity for WTD management programs to reduce tropical peat degradation.

  3. Modeling and Simulation with INS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, Stephen D.; And Others

    INS, the Integrated Network Simulation language, puts simulation modeling into a network framework and automatically performs such programming activities as placing the problem into a next event structure, coding events, collecting statistics, monitoring status, and formatting reports. To do this, INS provides a set of symbols (nodes and branches)…

  4. Simulation modeling of estuarine ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, R. W.

    1980-01-01

    A simulation model has been developed of Galveston Bay, Texas ecosystem. Secondary productivity measured by harvestable species (such as shrimp and fish) is evaluated in terms of man-related and controllable factors, such as quantity and quality of inlet fresh-water and pollutants. This simulation model used information from an existing physical parameters model as well as pertinent biological measurements obtained by conventional sampling techniques. Predicted results from the model compared favorably with those from comparable investigations. In addition, this paper will discuss remotely sensed and conventional measurements in the framework of prospective models that may be used to study estuarine processes and ecosystem productivity.

  5. Fractal properties of forest fires in Amazonia as a basis for modelling pan-tropical burned area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fletcher, I. N.; Aragão, L. E. O. C.; Lima, A.; Shimabukuro, Y.; Friedlingstein, P.

    2013-08-01

    Current methods for modelling burnt area in Dynamic Global Vegetation Models involve complex fire spread calculations, which rely on many inputs, including fuel characteristics, wind speed and countless parameters. They are therefore susceptible to large uncertainties through error propagation. Using observed fractal distributions of fire scars in Brazilian Amazonia, we propose an alternative burnt area model for tropical forests, with fire counts as sole input and few parameters. Several parameterizations of two possible distributions are calibrated at multiple spatial resolutions using a satellite-derived burned area map, and compared. The tapered Pareto model most accurately simulates the total area burnt (only 3.5 km2 larger than the recorded 16 387 km2) and its spatial distribution. When tested pan-tropically using MODIS MCD14ML fire counts, the model accurately predicts temporal and spatial fire trends, but produces generally higher estimates than the GFED3.1 burnt area product, suggesting higher pan-tropical carbon emissions from fires than previously estimated.

  6. Modeling and Simulating Environmental Effects

    OpenAIRE

    Guest, Peter S.; Murphree, Tom; Frederickson, Paul A.; Guest, Arlene A.

    2012-01-01

    MOVES Research & Education Systems Seminar: Presentation; Session 4: Collaborative NWDC/NPS M&S Research; Moderator: Curtis Blais; Modeling and Simulating Environmental Effects; speakers: Peter Guest, Paul Frederickson & Tom Murphree Environmental Effects Group

  7. Effects of excessive equatorial cold tongue bias on the projections of tropical Pacific climate change. Part I: the warming pattern in CMIP5 multi-model ensemble

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Gen; Xie, Shang-Ping; Du, Yan; Luo, Yiyong

    2016-12-01

    The excessive cold tongue error in the equatorial Pacific has persisted in several generations of climate models. Based on the historical simulations and Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 experiments in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) multi-model ensemble (MME), this study finds that models with an excessive westward extension of cold tongue and insufficient equatorial western Pacific precipitation tend to project a weaker east-minus-west gradient of sea surface temperature (SST) warming along the equatorial Pacific under increased greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. This La Niña-like error of tropical Pacific SST warming is consistent with our understanding of negative SST-convective feedback over the western Pacific warm pool. Based on this relationship between the present simulations and future projections, the present study applies an "observational constraint" of equatorial western Pacific precipitation to calibrate the projections of tropical Pacific climate change. After the corrections, CMIP5 models robustly project an El Niño-like warming pattern, with a MME mean increase by a factor of 2.3 in east-minus-west gradient of equatorial Pacific SST warming and reduced inter-model uncertainty. Corrections in projected changes in tropical precipitation and atmospheric circulation are physically consistent. This study suggests that a realistic cold tongue simulation would lead to a more reliable tropical Pacific climate projection.

  8. Effects of excessive equatorial cold tongue bias on the projections of tropical Pacific climate change. Part I: the warming pattern in CMIP5 multi-model ensemble

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Gen; Xie, Shang-Ping; Du, Yan; Luo, Yiyong

    2016-02-01

    The excessive cold tongue error in the equatorial Pacific has persisted in several generations of climate models. Based on the historical simulations and Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 experiments in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) multi-model ensemble (MME), this study finds that models with an excessive westward extension of cold tongue and insufficient equatorial western Pacific precipitation tend to project a weaker east-minus-west gradient of sea surface temperature (SST) warming along the equatorial Pacific under increased greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. This La Niña-like error of tropical Pacific SST warming is consistent with our understanding of negative SST-convective feedback over the western Pacific warm pool. Based on this relationship between the present simulations and future projections, the present study applies an "observational constraint" of equatorial western Pacific precipitation to calibrate the projections of tropical Pacific climate change. After the corrections, CMIP5 models robustly project an El Niño-like warming pattern, with a MME mean increase by a factor of 2.3 in east-minus-west gradient of equatorial Pacific SST warming and reduced inter-model uncertainty. Corrections in projected changes in tropical precipitation and atmospheric circulation are physically consistent. This study suggests that a realistic cold tongue simulation would lead to a more reliable tropical Pacific climate projection.

  9. TREAT Modeling and Simulation Strategy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    DeHart, Mark David [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2015-09-01

    This report summarizes a four-phase process used to describe the strategy in developing modeling and simulation software for the Transient Reactor Test Facility. The four phases of this research and development task are identified as (1) full core transient calculations with feedback, (2) experiment modeling, (3) full core plus experiment simulation and (4) quality assurance. The document describes the four phases, the relationship between these research phases, and anticipated needs within each phase.

  10. Role of eruption season in reconciling model and proxy responses to tropical volcanism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stevenson, Samantha; Fasullo, John T.; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.; Tomas, Robert A.; Gao, Chaochao

    2017-02-01

    The response of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to tropical volcanic eruptions has important worldwide implications, but remains poorly constrained. Paleoclimate records suggest an “El Niño-like” warming 1 year following major eruptions [Adams JB, Mann ME, Ammann CM (2003) Nature 426:274-278] and “La Niña-like” cooling within the eruption year [Li J, et al. (2013) Nat Clim Chang 3:822-826]. However, climate models currently cannot capture all these responses. Many eruption characteristics are poorly constrained, which may contribute to uncertainties in model solutions—for example, the season of eruption occurrence is often unknown and assigned arbitrarily. Here we isolate the effect of eruption season using experiments with the Community Earth System Model (CESM), varying the starting month of two large tropical eruptions. The eruption-year atmospheric circulation response is strongly seasonally dependent, with effects on European winter warming, the Intertropical Convergence Zone, and the southeast Asian monsoon. This creates substantial variations in eruption-year hydroclimate patterns, which do sometimes exhibit La Niña-like features as in the proxy record. However, eruption-year equatorial Pacific cooling is not driven by La Niña dynamics, but strictly by transient radiative cooling. In contrast, equatorial warming the following year occurs for all starting months and operates dynamically like El Niño. Proxy reconstructions confirm these results: eruption-year cooling is insignificant, whereas warming in the following year is more robust. This implies that accounting for the event season may be necessary to describe the initial response to volcanic eruptions and that climate models may be more accurately simulating volcanic influences than previously thought.

  11. Role of eruption season in reconciling model and proxy responses to tropical volcanism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stevenson, Samantha; Fasullo, John T; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L; Tomas, Robert A; Gao, Chaochao

    2017-02-21

    The response of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to tropical volcanic eruptions has important worldwide implications, but remains poorly constrained. Paleoclimate records suggest an "El Niño-like" warming 1 year following major eruptions [Adams JB, Mann ME, Ammann CM (2003) Nature 426:274-278] and "La Niña-like" cooling within the eruption year [Li J, et al. (2013) Nat Clim Chang 3:822-826]. However, climate models currently cannot capture all these responses. Many eruption characteristics are poorly constrained, which may contribute to uncertainties in model solutions-for example, the season of eruption occurrence is often unknown and assigned arbitrarily. Here we isolate the effect of eruption season using experiments with the Community Earth System Model (CESM), varying the starting month of two large tropical eruptions. The eruption-year atmospheric circulation response is strongly seasonally dependent, with effects on European winter warming, the Intertropical Convergence Zone, and the southeast Asian monsoon. This creates substantial variations in eruption-year hydroclimate patterns, which do sometimes exhibit La Niña-like features as in the proxy record. However, eruption-year equatorial Pacific cooling is not driven by La Niña dynamics, but strictly by transient radiative cooling. In contrast, equatorial warming the following year occurs for all starting months and operates dynamically like El Niño. Proxy reconstructions confirm these results: eruption-year cooling is insignificant, whereas warming in the following year is more robust. This implies that accounting for the event season may be necessary to describe the initial response to volcanic eruptions and that climate models may be more accurately simulating volcanic influences than previously thought.

  12. Tropical climate and vegetation changes during Heinrich Event 1: comparing climate model output to pollen-based vegetation reconstructions with emphasis on the region around the tropical Atlantic Ocean

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Handiani

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Abrupt climate changes associated with Heinrich Event 1 (HE1 about 18 to 15 thousand years before present (ka BP strongly affected climate and vegetation patterns not only in the Northern Hemisphere, but also in tropical regions in the South Atlantic Ocean. We used the University of Victoria (UVic Earth System-Climate Model (ESCM with dynamical vegetation and land surface components to simulate four scenarios of climate-vegetation interaction: the pre-industrial era (PI, the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, and a Heinrich-like event with two different climate backgrounds (interglacial and glacial.

    The HE1-like simulation with a glacial climate background produced sea surface temperature patterns and enhanced interhemispheric thermal gradients in accordance with the "bipolar seesaw" hypothesis. It allowed us to investigate the vegetation changes that result from a transition to a drier climate as predicted for northern tropical Africa due to a southward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ. We found that a cooling of the Northern Hemisphere caused a southward shift of those plant-functional types (PFTs in Northern Tropical Africa that are indicative of an increased desertification, and a retreat of broadleaf forests in Western Africa and Northern South America.

    We used the PFTs generated by the model to calculate mega-biomes to allow for a direct comparison between paleodata and palynological vegetation reconstructions. Our calculated mega-biomes for the pre-industrial period and the LGM corresponded well to the modern and LGM sites of the BIOME6000 (v.4.2 reconstruction, except that our present-day simulation predicted the dominance of grassland in Southern Europe and our LGM simulation simulated more forest cover in tropical and sub-tropical South America. The mega-biomes from the HE1 simulation with glacial background climate were in agreement with paleovegetation data from land and ocean proxies in West, Central, and

  13. Stochastic modeling analysis and simulation

    CERN Document Server

    Nelson, Barry L

    1995-01-01

    A coherent introduction to the techniques for modeling dynamic stochastic systems, this volume also offers a guide to the mathematical, numerical, and simulation tools of systems analysis. Suitable for advanced undergraduates and graduate-level industrial engineers and management science majors, it proposes modeling systems in terms of their simulation, regardless of whether simulation is employed for analysis. Beginning with a view of the conditions that permit a mathematical-numerical analysis, the text explores Poisson and renewal processes, Markov chains in discrete and continuous time, se

  14. 论 IPCC-AR4模式对影响西北太平洋热带气旋的大气动力环境场的气候特征模拟性能%Assessments on climatologic simulation of atmospheric dynamic environment of tropical cyclone over western North Pacific in IPCC -AR4 models

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    余锦华; 赵晓彤; 陈成

    2014-01-01

    评估了23个IPCC-AR4模式在低纬地区1948-1999年7-9月大尺度环流场的模拟性能,重点关注西北太平洋区域的西太副高、季风槽以及台风活动海域的垂直风切变。结果显示,绝大多数模式的7-9月低纬地区500 hPa平均高度场、850 hPa风场空间分布与NCEP都具有很高的相似性,但大多模式500 hPa高度场存在系统性偏低,而850 hPa风场偏强。所有模式模拟的西北太平洋副高脊线与NCEP都有一致的西南-东北走向,但有些模式的脊线位置偏离NCEP的较远。有4个模式没有模拟出类似于NCEP的季风槽线。综合模式对夏季热带环流场、西北太平洋副热带高压、季风槽以及西北太平洋热带气旋活动关键区域垂直风切变气候特征的模拟性能,按性能优劣,排在前10的模式依次是mpi_echam5、cccma_t63、gfdl_cm2_1、cnrm_cm3、cccma_t47、ukmo_hadgem1、ingv_echam4、ncar_ccsm3_0、csiro_mk3_5、mri_cgcm2_3_2a;排在后6位的模式是inmcm3_0、iap_fgoals1_0_g、ipsl_cm4、miroc3_2_medres、giss_eh、giss_er。%The fidelity of atmospheric circulation over tropical regions ,especially subtropical high ,monsoon trough and vertical wind shear over the regions of tropical cyclone activity in the coupled general circulation models (CGCM) participating in the Forth Assessment Report (AR4) of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)is accessed by virtue of comparing simulated climate field with that of National Center Environmental Pre-diction(NCEP)/National Center Atmospheric Research (NCAR) during 1948-1999 from July to September. It is found that vast majority of 23 IPCC-AR4 models show a good performance in mean state in 500 hPa height field over the domain 0°-40°N ,0°E-180°-0°W and 850 hPa wind field over the region 20°S-40°N ,0°E-180°-0°W-180°-0°W ,but in comparison to that of NCEP/NCAR ,most of models show a low bias in 500 hPa height

  15. Can a 'state of the art' chemistry transport model really simulate Anazonian tropospheric chemistry

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Barkley, M.; Palmer, P.I.; Ganzeveld, L.N.

    2011-01-01

    We present an evaluation of a nested high-resolution Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS)-Chem chemistry transport model simulation of tropospheric chemistry over tropical South America. The model has been constrained with two isoprene emission inventories: (1) the canopy-scale Model of Emissions

  16. The South Atlantic Anticyclone as a key player for the representation of the tropical Atlantic climate in coupled climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cabos, William; Sein, Dmitry V.; Pinto, Joaquim G.; Fink, Andreas H.; Koldunov, Nikolay V.; Alvarez, Francisco; Izquierdo, Alfredo; Keenlyside, Noel; Jacob, Daniela

    2016-08-01

    The key role of the South Atlantic Anticyclone (SAA) on the seasonal cycle of the tropical Atlantic is investigated with a regionally coupled atmosphere-ocean model for two different coupled domains. Both domains include the equatorial Atlantic and a large portion of the northern tropical Atlantic, but one extends southward, and the other northwestward. The SAA is simulated as internal model variability in the former, and is prescribed as external forcing in the latter. In the first case, the model shows significant warm biases in sea surface temperature (SST) in the Angola-Benguela front zone. If the SAA is externally prescribed, these biases are substantially reduced. The biases are both of oceanic and atmospheric origin, and are influenced by ocean-atmosphere interactions in coupled runs. The strong SST austral summer biases are associated with a weaker SAA, which weakens the winds over the southeastern tropical Atlantic, deepens the thermocline and prevents the local coastal upwelling of colder water. The biases in the basins interior in this season could be related to the advection and eddy transport of the coastal warm anomalies. In winter, the deeper thermocline and atmospheric fluxes are probably the main biases sources. Biases in incoming solar radiation and thus cloudiness seem to be a secondary effect only observed in austral winter. We conclude that the external prescription of the SAA south of 20°S improves the simulation of the seasonal cycle over the tropical Atlantic, revealing the fundamental role of this anticyclone in shaping the climate over this region.

  17. Model reduction for circuit simulation

    CERN Document Server

    Hinze, Michael; Maten, E Jan W Ter

    2011-01-01

    Simulation based on mathematical models plays a major role in computer aided design of integrated circuits (ICs). Decreasing structure sizes, increasing packing densities and driving frequencies require the use of refined mathematical models, and to take into account secondary, parasitic effects. This leads to very high dimensional problems which nowadays require simulation times too large for the short time-to-market demands in industry. Modern Model Order Reduction (MOR) techniques present a way out of this dilemma in providing surrogate models which keep the main characteristics of the devi

  18. Contribution of different processes to changes in tropical lower-stratospheric water vapor in chemistry-climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smalley, Kevin M.; Dessler, Andrew E.; Bekki, Slimane; Deushi, Makoto; Marchand, Marion; Morgenstern, Olaf; Plummer, David A.; Shibata, Kiyotaka; Yamashita, Yousuke; Zeng, Guang

    2017-07-01

    Variations in tropical lower-stratospheric humidity influence both the chemistry and climate of the atmosphere. We analyze tropical lower-stratospheric water vapor in 21st century simulations from 12 state-of-the-art chemistry-climate models (CCMs), using a linear regression model to determine the factors driving the trends and variability. Within CCMs, warming of the troposphere primarily drives the long-term trend in stratospheric humidity. This is partially offset in most CCMs by an increase in the strength of the Brewer-Dobson circulation, which tends to cool the tropical tropopause layer (TTL). We also apply the regression model to individual decades from the 21st century CCM runs and compare them to a regression of a decade of observations. Many of the CCMs, but not all, compare well with these observations, lending credibility to their predictions. One notable deficiency is that most CCMs underestimate the impact of the quasi-biennial oscillation on lower-stratospheric water vapor. Our analysis provides a new and potentially superior way to evaluate model trends in lower-stratospheric humidity.

  19. The influence of biogenic emissions from Africa on tropical tropospheric ozone during 2006: a global modeling study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. E. Williams

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available We have performed simulations using a 3-D global chemistry-transport model to investigate the influence that biogenic emissions from the African continent exert on the composition of the troposphere in the tropical region. For this purpose we have applied two recently developed biogenic emission inventories provided for use in large-scale global models (Granier et al., 2005; Lathière et al., 2006 whose seasonality and temporal distribution for biogenic emissions of isoprene, other volatile organic compounds and NO is markedly different. The use of the 12 year average values for biogenic emissions provided by Lathière et al. (2006 results in an increase in the amount of nitrogen sequestrated into longer lived reservoir compounds which contributes to the reduction in the tropospheric ozone burden in the tropics. The associated re-partitioning of nitrogen between PAN, HNO3 and organic nitrates also results in a ~5% increase in the loss of nitrogen by wet deposition. At a global scale there is a reduction in the oxidizing capacity of the model atmosphere which increases the atmospheric lifetimes of CH4 and CO by ~1.5% and ~4%, respectively. Comparisons against a range of different measurements indicate that applying the 12 year average of Lathière et al. (2006 improves the performance of TM4_AMMA for 2006 in the tropics. By the use of sensitivity studies we show that the release of NO from soils in Africa accounts for between ~2–45% of tropospheric ozone in the African troposphere, ~10% in the upper troposphere and between ~5–20% of the tropical tropospheric ozone column over the tropical Atlantic Ocean. The subsequent reduction in OH over the source regions allows enhanced transport of CO out of the region. For biogenic volatile organic C1 to C3 species released from Africa, the effects on tropical tropospheric ozone are rather limited, although this source contributes to the global burden of VOC by between ~2–4% and

  20. Ensemble superparameterization versus stochastic parameterization: A comparison of model uncertainty representation in tropical weather prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Subramanian, Aneesh C.; Palmer, Tim N.

    2017-06-01

    Stochastic schemes to represent model uncertainty in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble prediction system has helped improve its probabilistic forecast skill over the past decade by both improving its reliability and reducing the ensemble mean error. The largest uncertainties in the model arise from the model physics parameterizations. In the tropics, the parameterization of moist convection presents a major challenge for the accurate prediction of weather and climate. Superparameterization is a promising alternative strategy for including the effects of moist convection through explicit turbulent fluxes calculated from a cloud-resolving model (CRM) embedded within a global climate model (GCM). In this paper, we compare the impact of initial random perturbations in embedded CRMs, within the ECMWF ensemble prediction system, with stochastically perturbed physical tendency (SPPT) scheme as a way to represent model uncertainty in medium-range tropical weather forecasts. We especially focus on forecasts of tropical convection and dynamics during MJO events in October-November 2011. These are well-studied events for MJO dynamics as they were also heavily observed during the DYNAMO field campaign. We show that a multiscale ensemble modeling approach helps improve forecasts of certain aspects of tropical convection during the MJO events, while it also tends to deteriorate certain large-scale dynamic fields with respect to stochastically perturbed physical tendencies approach that is used operationally at ECMWF.type="synopsis">type="main">Plain Language SummaryProbabilistic weather forecasts, especially for tropical weather, is still a significant challenge for global weather forecasting systems. Expressing uncertainty along with weather forecasts is important for informed decision making. Hence, we explore the use of a relatively new approach in using super-parameterization, where a cloud resolving model is embedded within a global

  1. Simulating Plant Water Stress and Phenology in Seasonally Dry Tropical Forests: Plant Hydraulics and Trait-Driven Trade-Offs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, X.; Medvigy, D.; Powers, J. S.; Becknell, J. M.

    2014-12-01

    Seasonally dry tropical forests account for over 40% of the forested area in tropical and subtropical regions. Previous studies suggest that seasonal water stress is one main driver of phenology and related vegetation dynamics in seasonally dry tropical forests. Species that coexist in seasonally dry tropical forests have different plant traits, experience different degrees of plant water stress and show distinctive phenological patterns. However, the observed diversity in plant phenology and related vegetation dynamics is poorly represented in current dynamic vegetation models. In this study, we employ a new modeling approach to enhance our model skills in seasonally dry tropical forests. First, we implement a new plant hydraulic module under the framework of a state-of-the-art dynamic vegetation model, Ecosystem Demography 2 (ED2). Second, we link plant water stress with several key coordinated plant traits. Unlike previous models, the updated ED2 does not prescribe leaf phenology (deciduous or evergreen) and plant water stress is not determined by empirical water stress factors or by soil moisture alone. Instead, the model tracks more mechanistic indicators of plant water stress like leaf water potential, accounts for different abilities to tolerate water stress among plant functional types and predicts dry season leaf deciduousness and related vegetation dynamics. The updated model is then tested with in-situ meteorological data and long-term ecological observations. We also perform numerical experiments to explore the possible biases of ignoring the observed diversity in seasonally dry tropical forests. We find that (i) variations of several key plant traits (specific leaf area, wood density, turgor loss point and rooting depth) can account for the observed distinctive phenological patterns as well as inter-annual variations in vegetation growth among species. (ii) Ignoring the trait-driven trade-offs and diversity in seasonality would introduce significant

  2. The Spatial and Temporal Impact of an Idealized SST Gradient on Simulations of an Idealized Tropical Cyclone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glazer, R.

    2015-12-01

    It has long been known that generally the warmer the sea surface temperature (SST), the more possible tropical cyclone (TC) genesis is, assuming the atmosphere is supportive. The conventional wisdom has been that - apart from what the TC cools through upwelling -- one value of SST represents the state of the ocean surface in the region of the storm's inner circulation. With the advent of the satellite era and fine resolution SST datasets now becoming available, we know that in reality there are gradients of SST across which developing TCs move. The influence of those gradients on tropical convection and TCs is largely unknown at this time. Previous studies have shown that SST gradients can significantly impact the overlying ocean surface winds leading to areas of enhanced convergence/divergence and Vorticity (Chelton et al. 2004; O'Neill et al. 2005, 2010). The magnitude of this effect approximately increases as the surface wind increases. Work by Minobe et al. (2008) concluded that a sharp SST Gradient, over the Gulf Stream for instance, could produce enough surface wind convergence to maintain a band of precipitation along the ocean front. The authors seek to understand whether the conclusions made in previous works can be applied in the case of a TC. To address this, the effects of an idealized sea surface temperature (SST) gradient on a simulated TC are investigated using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model at 2km grid spacing. An idealized analytic vortex with no accompanying background wind is used to simulate the TC in one run with a horizontal north-south SST gradient and in a second run with the SST gradient flipped south-north. A third model run with constant 28oC SST everywhere is also conducted. Model runs with the SST gradient show asymmetries in convection and structure develop quickly before and after the cyclone develops. In these runs the cyclone drifts one direction depending on the location of colder SST. This is consistent with a

  3. A VRLA battery simulation model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pascoe, P.E.; Anbuky, A.H. [Invensys Energy Systems NZ Limited, Christchurch (New Zealand)

    2004-05-01

    A valve regulated lead acid (VRLA) battery simulation model is an invaluable tool for the standby power system engineer. The obvious use for such a model is to allow the assessment of battery performance. This may involve determining the influence of cells suffering from state of health (SOH) degradation on the performance of the entire string, or the running of test scenarios to ascertain the most suitable battery size for the application. In addition, it enables the engineer to assess the performance of the overall power system. This includes, for example, running test scenarios to determine the benefits of various load shedding schemes. It also allows the assessment of other power system components, either for determining their requirements and/or vulnerabilities. Finally, a VRLA battery simulation model is vital as a stand alone tool for educational purposes. Despite the fundamentals of the VRLA battery having been established for over 100 years, its operating behaviour is often poorly understood. An accurate simulation model enables the engineer to gain a better understanding of VRLA battery behaviour. A system level multipurpose VRLA battery simulation model is presented. It allows an arbitrary battery (capacity, SOH, number of cells and number of strings) to be simulated under arbitrary operating conditions (discharge rate, ambient temperature, end voltage, charge rate and initial state of charge). The model accurately reflects the VRLA battery discharge and recharge behaviour. This includes the complex start of discharge region known as the coup de fouet. (author)

  4. Modelling and Simulation: An Overview

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.J. McAleer (Michael); F. Chan (Felix); L. Oxley (Les)

    2013-01-01

    textabstractThe papers in this special issue of Mathematics and Computers in Simulation cover the following topics: improving judgmental adjustment of model-based forecasts, whether forecast updates are progressive, on a constrained mixture vector autoregressive model, whether all estimators are bor

  5. General introduction to simulation models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hisham Beshara Halasa, Tariq; Boklund, Anette

    2012-01-01

    Monte Carlo simulation can be defined as a representation of real life systems to gain insight into their functions and to investigate the effects of alternative conditions or actions on the modeled system. Models are a simplification of a system. Most often, it is best to use experiments and field...

  6. Modelling, simulating and optimizing Boilers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Kim; Condra, Thomas Joseph; Houbak, Niels

    2003-01-01

    of the boiler has been developed and simulations carried out by means of the Matlab integration routines. The model is prepared as a dynamic model consisting of both ordinary differential equations and algebraic equations, together formulated as a Differential-Algebraic- Equation system. Being able to operate...

  7. Modelling climate change responses in tropical forests: similar productivity estimates across five models, but different mechanisms and responses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Rowland

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Accurately predicting the response of Amazonia to climate change is important for predicting changes across the globe. However, changes in multiple climatic factors simultaneously may result in complex non-linear responses, which are difficult to predict using vegetation models. Using leaf and canopy scale observations, this study evaluated the capability of five vegetation models (CLM3.5, ED2, JULES, SiB3, and SPA to simulate the responses of canopy and leaf scale productivity to changes in temperature and drought in an Amazonian forest. The models did not agree as to whether gross primary productivity (GPP was more sensitive to changes in temperature or precipitation. There was greater model–data consistency in the response of net ecosystem exchange to changes in temperature, than in the response to temperature of leaf area index (LAI, net photosynthesis (An and stomatal conductance (gs. Modelled canopy scale fluxes are calculated by scaling leaf scale fluxes to LAI, and therefore in this study similarities in modelled ecosystem scale responses to drought and temperature were the result of inconsistent leaf scale and LAI responses among models. Across the models, the response of An to temperature was more closely linked to stomatal behaviour than biochemical processes. Consequently all the models predicted that GPP would be higher if tropical forests were 5 °C colder, closer to the model optima for gs. There was however no model consistency in the response of the An–gs relationship when temperature changes and drought were introduced simultaneously. The inconsistencies in the An–gs relationships amongst models were caused by to non-linear model responses induced by simultaneous drought and temperature change. To improve the reliability of simulations of the response of Amazonian rainforest to climate change the mechanistic underpinnings of vegetation models need more complete validation to improve accuracy and consistency in the scaling

  8. The Influence of Tropical Air-Sea Interaction on the Climate Impact of Aerosols: A Hierarchical Modeling Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsieh, W. C.; Saravanan, R.; Chang, P.; Mahajan, S.

    2014-12-01

    In this study, we use a hierarchical modeling approach to investigate the influence of tropical air-sea feedbacks on climate impacts of aerosols in the Community Earth System Model (CESM). We construct four different models by coupling the atmospheric component of CESM, the Community Atmospheric Model (CAM), to four different ocean models: (i) the Data Ocean Model (DOM; prescribed SST), (i) Slab Ocean Model (SOM; thermodynamic coupling), (iii) Reduced Gravity Ocean Model (RGOM; dynamic coupling), and (iv) the Parallel Ocean Program (POP; full ocean model). These four models represent progressively increasing degree of coupling between the atmosphere and the ocean. The RGOM model, in particular, is tuned to produce a good simulation of ENSO and the associated tropical air-sea interaction, without being impacted by the climate drifts exhibited by fully-coupled GCMs. For each method of coupling, a pair of numerical experiments, including present day (year 2000) and preindustrial (year 1850) sulfate aerosol loading, were carried out. Our results indicate that the inclusion of air-sea interaction has large impacts on the spatial structure of the climate response induced by aerosols. In response to sulfate aerosol forcing, ITCZ shifts southwards as a result of the anomalous clockwise MMC change which transports moisture southwardly across the Equator. We present analyses of the regional response to sulfate aerosol forcing in the equatorial Pacific as well as the zonally-averaged response. The decomposition of the change in the net surface energy flux shows the most dominant terms are net shortwave radiative flux at the surface and latent heat flux. Further analyses show all ocean model simulations simulate a positive change of northward atmospheric energy transport across the Equator in response to the perturbed radiative sulfate forcing. This positive northward atmospheric energy transport change plays a role in compensating partially cooling caused by sulfate aerosols.

  9. Modeling Tropical Cyclone Induced Inland Flooding at Tar Pamlico River Basin of North Carolina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Qianhong

    Landfalling tropical cyclones often produce heavy precipitation and result in river and flash floods. Such floods can not only cause loss of human lives and properties, but also lead to ecological disasters in the affected watershed areas, estuaries and coastal waters. In order to better understand and simulate large coastal watershed hydrology and hydro-meteorological processes associated with tropical cyclones (TC) - induced inland flooding, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the Annualized Agricultural Nonpoint Source Pollution Model (AnnAGNPS) have been employed in this study. The study focuses on four major hydro-meteorological identities and their interactions: 1) previous rainfall events, 2) synoptic atmospheric environment, 3) landfalling hurricane, and 4) surface and ground water hydrology. The research is divided into two parts. Part one focuses on the investigation of the impacts of previous rainfall events on watershed surface runoff while part two studies the impacts of the synoptic atmospheric environment on landfalling hurricanes and the resulting effect on surface runoff. Hurricane Floyd was chosen in this study as a special case because it produced massive flooding as a result of the combined effects of previous rainfall events from Hurricane Dennis and the synoptic atmospheric environment. The modeling results indicate that the AnnAGNPS model performs well in predicting the total amount of watershed runoff. However Muskingum channel routing is needed for AnnAGNPS to improve the hydrographs of flow discharge during hurricane events. Sensitivity analysis of soil saturated hydrological conductivity (Ks) indicates that both base flow and event total runoff are sensitive to Ks. Base flow increases as Ks increases when K s ≥15 m/day, but slightly decreases when K s > 15 m/day which is out of assumption of linear relationship from Darcy's law. Peak runoff exponentially decreases as Ks increases. The results show that without the

  10. Modeling fire behavior on tropical islands with high-resolution weather data

    Science.gov (United States)

    John W. Benoit; Francis M. Fujioka; David R. Weise

    2009-01-01

    In this study, we consider fire behavior simulation in tropical island scenarios such as Hawaii and Puerto Rico. The development of a system to provide real-time fire behavior prediction in Hawaii is discussed. This involves obtaining fuels and topography information at a fine scale, as well as supplying daily high-resolution weather forecast data for the area of...

  11. Vehicle dynamics modeling and simulation

    CERN Document Server

    Schramm, Dieter; Bardini, Roberto

    2014-01-01

    The authors examine in detail the fundamentals and mathematical descriptions of the dynamics of automobiles. In this context different levels of complexity will be presented, starting with basic single-track models up to complex three-dimensional multi-body models. A particular focus is on the process of establishing mathematical models on the basis of real cars and the validation of simulation results. The methods presented are explained in detail by means of selected application scenarios.

  12. Seasonal & Daily Amazon Column CO2 & CO Observations from Ground & Space Used to Evaluate Tropical Ecosystem Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dubey, M. K.; Parker, H. A.; Wennberg, P. O.; Wunch, D.; Jacobson, A. R.; Kawa, S. R.; Keppel-Aleks, G.; Basu, S.; O'Dell, C.; Frankenberg, C.; Michalak, A. M.; Baker, D. F.; Christofferson, B.; Restrepo-Coupe, N.; Saleska, S. R.; De Araujo, A. C.; Miller, J. B.

    2016-12-01

    The Amazon basin stores 150-200 PgC, exchanges 18 PgC with the atmosphere every year and has taken up 0.42-0.65 PgC/y over the past two decades. Despite its global significance, the response of the tropical carbon cycle to climate variability and change is ill constrained as evidenced by the large negative and positive feedbacks in future climate simulations. The complex interplay of radiation, water and ecosystem phenology remains unresolved in current tropical ecosystem models. We use high frequency regional scale TCCON observations of column CO2, CO and CH4 near Manaus, Brazil that began in October 2014 to understand the aforementioned interplay of processes in regulating biosphere-atmosphere exchange. We observe a robust daily column CO2 uptake of about 2 ppm (4 ppm to 0.5 ppm) over 8 hours and evaluate how it changes as we transition to the dry season. Back-trajectory calculations show that the daily CO2 uptake footprint is terrestrial and influenced by the heterogeneity of the Amazon rain forests. The column CO falls from above 120 ppb to below 80 ppb as we transition from the biomass burning to wet seasons. The daily mean column CO2 rises by 3 ppm from October through June. Removal of biomass burning, secular CO2 increase and variations from transport (by Carbon tracker simulations) implies an increase of 2.3 ppm results from tropical biospheric processes (respiration and photosynthesis). This is consistent with ground-based remote sensing and eddy flux observations that indicate that leaf development and demography drives the tropical carbon cycle in regions that are not water limited and is not considered in current models. We compare our observations with output from 7 CO2 inversion transport models with assimilated meteorology and find that while 5 models reproduce the CO2 seasonal cycle all of them under predict the daily drawdown of CO2 by a factor of 3. This indicates that the CO2 flux partitioning between photosynthesis and respiration is incorrect

  13. TRMM- and GPM-based precipitation analysis and modelling in the Tropical Andes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manz, Bastian; Buytaert, Wouter; Zulkafli, Zed; Onof, Christian

    2016-04-01

    Despite wide-spread applications of satellite-based precipitation products (SPPs) throughout the TRMM-era, the scarcity of ground-based in-situ data (high density gauge networks, rainfall radar) in many hydro-meteorologically important regions, such as tropical mountain environments, has limited our ability to evaluate both SPPs and individual satellite-based sensors as well as accurately model or merge rainfall at high spatial resolutions, particularly with respect to extremes. This has restricted both the understanding of sensor behaviour and performance controls in such regions as well as the accuracy of precipitation estimates and respective hydrological applications ranging from water resources management to early warning systems. Here we report on our recent research into precipitation analysis and modelling using various TRMM and GPM products (2A25, 3B42 and IMERG) in the tropical Andes. In an initial study, 78 high-frequency (10-min) recording gauges in Colombia and Ecuador are used to generate a ground-based validation dataset for evaluation of instantaneous TRMM Precipitation Radar (TPR) overpasses from the 2A25 product. Detection ability, precipitation time-series, empirical distributions and statistical moments are evaluated with respect to regional climatological differences, seasonal behaviour, rainfall types and detection thresholds. Results confirmed previous findings from extra-tropical regions of over-estimation of low rainfall intensities and under-estimation of the highest 10% of rainfall intensities by the TPR. However, in spite of evident regionalised performance differences as a function of local climatological regimes, the TPR provides an accurate estimate of climatological annual and seasonal rainfall means. On this basis, high-resolution (5 km) climatological maps are derived for the entire tropical Andes. The second objective of this work is to improve the local precipitation estimation accuracy and representation of spatial patterns of

  14. Stochastic models: theory and simulation.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Field, Richard V., Jr.

    2008-03-01

    Many problems in applied science and engineering involve physical phenomena that behave randomly in time and/or space. Examples are diverse and include turbulent flow over an aircraft wing, Earth climatology, material microstructure, and the financial markets. Mathematical models for these random phenomena are referred to as stochastic processes and/or random fields, and Monte Carlo simulation is the only general-purpose tool for solving problems of this type. The use of Monte Carlo simulation requires methods and algorithms to generate samples of the appropriate stochastic model; these samples then become inputs and/or boundary conditions to established deterministic simulation codes. While numerous algorithms and tools currently exist to generate samples of simple random variables and vectors, no cohesive simulation tool yet exists for generating samples of stochastic processes and/or random fields. There are two objectives of this report. First, we provide some theoretical background on stochastic processes and random fields that can be used to model phenomena that are random in space and/or time. Second, we provide simple algorithms that can be used to generate independent samples of general stochastic models. The theory and simulation of random variables and vectors is also reviewed for completeness.

  15. THE OBJECTIVE ANALOGUE PREDICTION MODEL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACK WITH COMPREHENSIVE ASSESSMENT OF THE ENVIRONMENT

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    钟元

    2002-01-01

    An objective analogue prediction model for tropical cyclone (TC) track is put forward that comprehensively assesses the environmental field. With the parameters of the tropical cyclone and environmental field at initial and future time, objective analogue criteria are set up in the model. Analogous samples are recognized by comprehensive assessment of historical TC cases for similarity with multivariate criteria, using non-linear analogue indexes especially defined for the purpose. When the historical tracks are coordinateconverted and weighted with reference to analogue indexes, forecast tracks are determined. As shown in model verification and forecast experiments, the model has forecasting skill.

  16. Modeling the impact of land surface feedbacks on post landfall tropical cyclones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Subramanian, Subashini

    The land surface is an important component of numerical models. The land surface models are modules that control energy partitioning, compute surface exchange coefficients and form the only physical boundary in a regional scale numerical model. Thus, an accurate representation of land surface is critical to compute surface fluxes, represent the boundary layer evolution and affect changes in weather systems. Land surface can affect landfalling tropical cyclones in two ways: (i) when the cyclone is offshore and land can influence cyclones by introducing dry (or moist) air that can weaken (or strengthen) the organized convective structure of cyclones, and (ii) land can affect the evolution of cyclones post landfall by modifying the surface heat fluxes and introducing additional surface drag. In this dissertation, the hypothesis that improved representation of land surface conditions will improve the prediction of landfalling tropical cyclones is tested. To that effect, a comprehensive review of land surface effects on tropical cyclones was undertaken and an idealized study was conducted to study the impact of antecedent soil temperature on the sustenance/reintensification of tropical cyclones over land. Rainfall verification for cyclone events over the Atlantic Ocean was conducted and a comparison study between land models--GFDL Slab and Noah, also considers the sensitivity of tropical cyclone models to land surface parameterizations. The recent adoption of Noah land model with hydrology products in HWRF offers a unique opportunity to couple a river routing model to HWRF to provide streamflow estimations from the HWRF model and this dissertation has outlined techniques to real time predict streamflow for United States with HWRF forcing. Results from this dissertation research indicate antecedent land surface conditions can affect tropical cyclone evolution post landfall and high soil temperature and thermally diffusive soil texture of land surface are critical factors

  17. Persistent Cold States of the Tropical Pacific Ocean in an Intermediate Coupled Model and a General Circulation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramesh, N.; Cane, M. A.; Seager, R.

    2014-12-01

    The tropical Pacific Ocean has persistently cool sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies that last several years to a decade, with either no El Niño events or very few weak El Niño events. These have been shown to cause large-scale droughts in the extratropics[i], including the major North American droughts such as the 1930s Dust Bowl, and may also be responsible for modulating the global mean surface temperature[ii]. Here we show that two models with different levels of complexity - the Zebiak-Cane model and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Coupled Model version 2.1 - are able to produce such periods in a realistic manner. We then test the predictability of these periods in the Zebiak-Cane model using an ensemble of experiments with perturbed initial states. Our results show that the cool mean state is modestly predictable, while the lack of El Niño events during these cool periods is not. These results have implications for our understanding of the origins of such persistent cool states and the possibility of improving predictions of large-scale droughts. Further, we apply this method of using an ensemble of model simulations with perturbed initial states to make retrospective forecasts and to forecast the mean state of the tropical Pacific Ocean for the upcoming decade. Our results suggest, albeit with low confidence, that the current cool mean state will persist. This could imply the continuation of the drier than normal conditions that have, in general, afflicted southwest North America since the 1997/98 El Niño, as well as the current pause in global warming. [i] C. Herweijer and R. Seager, "The global footprint of persistent extra-tropical drought in the instrumental era," International Journal of Climatology, vol. 28, pp. 1761-1774, 2008. [ii] G. A. Meehl, J. M. Arblaster, J. T. Fasullo, A. Hu and K. E. Trenberth, "Model-based evidence of deep-ocean heat uptake during surface-temperature hiatus periods," Nature Climate Change, vol. 1, pp. 360

  18. Characteristics of clouds and the near cloud environment in a simulation of tropical convection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glenn, Ian Bruce

    This work presents the general characteristics of cumulus convection and the large-scale environment in a simulation of tropical precipitating convection known as the Giga-LES. A moist static energy (MSE)-based analysis is used because MSE mixes linearly and is conserved for moist adiabatic motions. The MSE-based analysis is first used to examine the properties of convection over height and amount of dilution through mixing, and a minimum dilution greater than zero is quantified. Additionally, an interesting pattern of average buoyancy over MSE and height in the simulation is revealed, possibly linked to cloudy downdrafts and mixing at the edge of clouds. Investigating further, an MSE-based analysis is performed on selected subregions of the simulation domain, particularly the near cloud environment (NCE) of cloudy updrafts in the simulation. It is found that the NCE around all sizes of updrafts, from shallow to deep convection, contains points with properties of a subsiding shell. The dynamical importance of the evaporative-cooling driven subsiding shell has already been demonstrated in previous work studying shallow cumulus clouds. This work presents the first evidence of subsiding shells in the NCE of deep convection, and quantifies the mass flux associated with subsiding shells for different sized clouds. With a new understanding of the NCE of active cloudy updrafts, the updrafts themselves are studied further. The work of Lin and Arakawa is discussed which clarifies how the entraining plumes of the Arakawa and Schubert parameterization should be interpreted. The physical interpretation is that they are composed of subcloud elements with similar detrainment levels that come from different cloudy updrafts. How are the subcloud elements that make up these ideal plumes distributed throughout the cloud field? The answer to this question has implications for the viability of different techniques of cumulus parameterization. I present a new method for characterizing

  19. Computational Modeling of Simulation Tests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1980-06-01

    Mexico , March 1979. 14. Kinney, G. F.,.::. IeiN, .hoce 1h Ir, McMillan, p. 57, 1962. 15. Courant and Friedrichs, ,U: r. on moca an.: Jho...AD 79 275 NEW MEXICO UNIV ALBUGUERGUE ERIC H WANG CIVIL ENGINE-ETC F/6 18/3 COMPUTATIONAL MODELING OF SIMULATION TESTS.(U) JUN 80 6 LEIGH, W CHOWN, B...COMPUTATIONAL MODELING OF SIMULATION TESTS00 0G. Leigh W. Chown B. Harrison Eric H. Wang Civil Engineering Research Facility University of New Mexico

  20. Eemian tropical and subtropical African moisture transport: an isotope modelling study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Herold, Marcus; Lohmann, Gerrit [Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven (Germany); MARUM, Center for Marine Environmental Sciences, Bremen (Germany)

    2009-12-15

    During the last interglacial insolation maximum (Eemian, MIS 5e) the tropical and subtropical African hydrological cycle was enhanced during boreal summer months. The climate anomalies are examined with a General Circulation Model (ECHAM4) that is equipped with a module for the direct simulation of {sup 18}O and deuterium (H{sub 2} {sup 18} O and HDO, respectively) in all components of the hydrological cycle. A mechanism is proposed to explain the physical processes that lead to the modelled anomalies. Differential surface heating due to anomalies in orbital insolation forcing induce a zonal flow which results in enhanced moisture advection and precipitation. Increased cloud cover reduces incoming short wave radiation and induces a cooling between 10 N and 20 N. The isotopic composition of rainfall at these latitudes is therefore significantly altered. Increased amount of precipitation and stronger advection of moisture from the Atlantic result in isotopically more depleted rainfall in the Eemian East African subtropics compared to pre-industrial climate. The East-West gradient of the isotopic rainfall composition reverses in the Eemian simulation towards depleted values in the east, compared to more depleted western African rainfall in the pre-industrial simulation. The modelled re-distribution of {delta}{sup 18}O and {delta}D is the result of a change in the forcing of the zonal flow anomaly. We conclude that the orbitally induced forcing for African monsoon maxima extends further eastward over the continent and leaves a distinct isotopic signal that can be tested against proxy archives, such as lake sediment cores from the Ethiopian region. (orig.)

  1. A coupled atmosphere-ocean-wave modeling approach for a Tropical Like Cyclone in the Mediterranean Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ricchi, Antonio; Miglietta, M. Marcello; Barbariol, Francesco; Benetazzo, Alvise; Bonaldo, Davide; Falcieri, Francesco; Russo, Aniello; Sclavo, Mauro; Carniel, Sandro

    2016-04-01

    In November 6-8, 2011, in the Balearic islands an extra-tropical depression developed into a Tropical-Like Cyclone (TLC) characterized by a deep-warm core, leading to a mean sea level pressure minimum of about 991 hPa, 10 m wind speeds higher than 28 m/s around the eye, and very intense rainfall, especially in the Gulf of Lion. To explore in detail the effect of the sea surface temperature on the Medicane evolution, we employed the coupled modeling system COAWST, which consists of the ROMS model for the hydrodynamic part, the WRF model for the meteorological part, and the SWAN for the surface wave modeling. All model run over 5 km domain (same domain for ROMS and SWAN). COAWST was used with different configurations: in Stand Alone (SA) mode (that is, with only the atmospheric part), in atmosphere-ocean coupled mode (AO), and in a fully coupled version including also surface waves (AOW). Several sensitivity simulations performed with the SA approach were undertaken to simulate the TLC evolution. Especially in the later stage of the lifetime, when the cyclone was weaker, the predictability appears limited. Sensitivity simulations have considered the effect of the cumulus scheme (using an explicit scheme the Medicane does not develop and remains an extra-tropical depression) and the PBL scheme (using MYJ or MYNN resulting "Medicane" are extremely similar, although the roughness appears rather different among the two experiments). Comparing the three runs, the effects of different simulations on the Medicane tracks are significant only in the later stage of the cyclone lifetime. In the overall modeled basin, wind intensity is higher in the SA case w.r.t. both coupled runs. When compared to case AO, winds are about 1 m/s larger, even though the spatial distribution is very similar (possibly because of the lower SST produced by case AO). Case AOW produces less intense winds then SA and AO case in the areas where the wave is most developed (differences are about 2-4 m

  2. Numerical simulations and observations of surface wave fields under an extreme tropical cyclone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Y.; Ginis, I.; Hara, T.; Wright, C.W.; Walsh, E.J.

    2009-01-01

    The performance of the wave model WAVEWATCH III under a very strong, category 5, tropical cyclone wind forcing is investigated with different drag coefficient parameterizations and ocean current inputs. The model results are compared with field observations of the surface wave spectra from an airborne scanning radar altimeter, National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) time series, and satellite altimeter measurements in Hurricane Ivan (2004). The results suggest that the model with the original drag coefficient parameterization tends to overestimate the significant wave height and the dominant wavelength and produces a wave spectrum with narrower directional spreading. When an improved drag parameterization is introduced and the wave-current interaction is included, the model yields an improved forecast of significant wave height, but underestimates the dominant wavelength. When the hurricane moves over a preexisting mesoscale ocean feature, such as the Loop Current in the Gulf of Mexico or a warm-and cold-core ring, the current associated with the feature can accelerate or decelerate the wave propagation and significantly modulate the wave spectrum. ?? 2009 American Meteorological Society.

  3. SIMULATION OF COLLECTIVE RISK MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Viera Pacáková

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available The article focuses on providing brief theoretical definitions of the basic terms and methods of modeling and simulations of insurance risks in non-life insurance by means of mathematical and statistical methods using statistical software. While risk assessment of insurance company in connection with its solvency is a rather complex and comprehensible problem, its solution starts with statistical modeling of number and amount of individual claims. Successful solution of these fundamental problems enables solving of curtail problems of insurance such as modeling and simulation of collective risk, premium an reinsurance premium calculation, estimation of probabiliy of ruin etc. The article also presents some essential ideas underlying Monte Carlo methods and their applications to modeling of insurance risk. Solving problem is to find the probability distribution of the collective risk in non-life insurance portfolio. Simulation of the compound distribution function of the aggregate claim amount can be carried out, if the distibution functions of the claim number process and the claim size are assumed given. The Monte Carlo simulation is suitable method to confirm the results of other methods and for treatments of catastrophic claims, when small collectives are studied. Analysis of insurance risks using risk theory is important part of the project Solvency II. Risk theory is analysis of stochastic features of non-life insurance process. The field of application of risk theory has grown rapidly. There is a need to develop the theory into form suitable for practical purposes and demostrate their application. Modern computer simulation techniques open up a wide field of practical applications for risk theory concepts, without requiring the restricive assumptions and sophisticated mathematics. This article presents some comparisons of the traditional actuarial methods and of simulation methods of the collective risk model.

  4. Inter-model diversity of Arctic amplification caused by global warming and its relationship with the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone in CMIP5 climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yim, Bo Young; Yeh, Sang-Wook; Kug, Jong-Seong

    2016-08-01

    Surface-based Arctic amplification (AA) has experienced a remarkable increase in recent decades. Therefore, it is important to understand how Arctic warming might change in response to global warming. By analyzing the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) multi-model dataset, we examine how AA correlates with changes in tropical Pacific precipitation in response to global warming. It is found that that the changes in the latitudinal position of the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) are associated to the simulated AA strength in the CMIP5 climate models. Specifically, AA tends to be stronger (weaker) in models where the ITCZ shifts relatively more northward (southward). Further analysis indicates that the inter-model diversity of AA strength in the CMIP5 climate models is related to the changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation associated with the meridional shift of the ITCZ. These results emphasize a close relationship between AA and changes in tropical Pacific precipitation in response to global warming.

  5. Inter-model diversity of Arctic amplification caused by global warming and its relationship with the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone in CMIP5 climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yim, Bo Young; Yeh, Sang-Wook; Kug, Jong-Seong

    2017-06-01

    Surface-based Arctic amplification (AA) has experienced a remarkable increase in recent decades. Therefore, it is important to understand how Arctic warming might change in response to global warming. By analyzing the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) multi-model dataset, we examine how AA correlates with changes in tropical Pacific precipitation in response to global warming. It is found that that the changes in the latitudinal position of the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) are associated to the simulated AA strength in the CMIP5 climate models. Specifically, AA tends to be stronger (weaker) in models where the ITCZ shifts relatively more northward (southward). Further analysis indicates that the inter-model diversity of AA strength in the CMIP5 climate models is related to the changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation associated with the meridional shift of the ITCZ. These results emphasize a close relationship between AA and changes in tropical Pacific precipitation in response to global warming.

  6. MODELLING, SIMULATING AND OPTIMIZING BOILERS

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, K.; Condra, T.; Houbak, Niels

    2003-01-01

    This paper describes the modelling, simulating and optimizing including experimental verification as being carried out as part of a Ph.D. project being written resp. supervised by the authors. The work covers dynamic performance of both water-tube boilers and fire tube boilers. A detailed dynamic...... model of the boiler has been developed and simulations carried out by means of the Matlab integration routines. The model is prepared as a dynamic model consisting of both ordinary differential equations and algebraic equations, together formulated as a Differential-Algebraic-Equation system. Being able...... to operate a boiler plant dynamically means that the boiler designs must be able to absorb any fluctuations in water level and temperature gradients resulting from the pressure change in the boiler. On the one hand a large water-/steam space may be required, i.e. to build the boiler as big as possible. Due...

  7. Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) simulations of climate following volcanic eruptions

    KAUST Repository

    Driscoll, Simon

    2012-09-16

    The ability of the climate models submitted to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) database to simulate the Northern Hemisphere winter climate following a large tropical volcanic eruption is assessed. When sulfate aerosols are produced by volcanic injections into the tropical stratosphere and spread by the stratospheric circulation, it not only causes globally averaged tropospheric cooling but also a localized heating in the lower stratosphere, which can cause major dynamical feedbacks. Observations show a lower stratospheric and surface response during the following one or two Northern Hemisphere (NH) winters, that resembles the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Simulations from 13 CMIP5 models that represent tropical eruptions in the 19th and 20th century are examined, focusing on the large-scale regional impacts associated with the large-scale circulation during the NH winter season. The models generally fail to capture the NH dynamical response following eruptions. They do not sufficiently simulate the observed post-volcanic strengthened NH polar vortex, positive NAO, or NH Eurasian warming pattern, and they tend to overestimate the cooling in the tropical troposphere. The findings are confirmed by a superposed epoch analysis of the NAO index for each model. The study confirms previous similar evaluations and raises concern for the ability of current climate models to simulate the response of a major mode of global circulation variability to external forcings. This is also of concern for the accuracy of geoengineering modeling studies that assess the atmospheric response to stratosphere-injected particles.

  8. Drying and moistening by deep sub-tropical and tropical convection in large-eddy simulations of CRYSTAL-FACE and CEPEX field measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ackerman, A. S.; Fridlind, F. M.; Jensen, E. J.; Stevens, D. E.; Miloshevich, L. M.; Baumgardner, D.; Lawson, P.

    2003-12-01

    Deep convection has been proposed to be a leading mechanism controlling the moisture in the lower stratosphere. We evaluate this hypothesis with large-eddy simulations that resolve the size distributions of aerosols and cloud particles over 100-km square square domain using pre-convective Miami and PARSL soundings, initiating convection with enough of a surface heat source to match the observed anvil altitudes. Differencing the moisture field after the anvils decay with the initial state, we find that convection predominantly moistens the transitional tropopause layer (TTL), although some drying is predicted in localized layers. Beyond the sub-tropical convection of Florida we also use frostpoint hygrometer soundings obtained during the CEPEX mission in the tropical western Pacific, which show repeated evidence of supersaturated layers within the TTL. In such cases we find that deep convection dries out the supersaturated layers while moistening the air above and below. We also analyze the environmental and temporal dependence of the time constants of sedimentation, evaporation, and mixing of water.

  9. Intelligent Mobility Modeling and Simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-03-04

    cog.cs.drexel.edu/act-r/index.html) •Models sensory / motor performance of human driver or teleoperator 27UNCLASSIFIED: Distribution Statement A. Approved for...U.S. ARMY TANK AUTOMOTIVE RESEARCH, DEVELOPMENT AND ENGINEERING CENTER Intelligent Mobility Modeling and Simulation 1 Dr. P. Jayakumar, S. Arepally...Prescribed by ANSI Std Z39-18 Contents 1. Mobility - Autonomy - Latency Relationship 2. Machine - Human Partnership 3. Development of Shared Control

  10. Solar response in tropical stratospheric ozone: a 3-D chemical transport model study using ERA reanalyses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Dhomse

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available We have used an off-line 3-D chemical transport model (CTM, to investigate the 11-year solar cycle response in tropical stratospheric ozone. The model is forced with European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF (reanalysis (ERA-40/Operational and ERA-Interim data for 1978–2005 time period. We have compared the modelled solar response in ozone to observational data from three satellite instruments, Solar Backscatter UltraViolet instrument (SBUV, Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE and Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE. A significant difference is seen between simulated and observed ozone during the 1980s, which is probably due to inhomogeneities in the ERA-40 reanalyses. In general, the model with ERA-Interim dynamics shows better agreement with the observations from 1990 onwards than ERA-40. Overall both standard model simulations are partially able to simulate a "double peak"-structured ozone solar response profile with a minimum around 30 km, and these are in better agreement with HALOE than SBUV or SAGE. The largest model-observation differences occur in the upper stratosphere where SBUV and SAGE show a significant (up to 4 % solar response whereas the standard model and HALOE do not. This is partly due to a positive solar response in the ECMWF upper stratosphere analysed temperatures which reduces the modelled ozone signal. The large positive upper stratosphere response seen in SAGE/SBUV can be reproduced in a model run with fixed dynamical fields (i.e. no inter-annual meteorological changes. As this run effectively assumes no long-term temperature changes (solar-induced or otherwise it should provide an upper limit of the ozone solar response. Overall, full quantification of the upper stratosphere ozone solar response is limited by differences in the observed dataset and by uncertainties in the solar response in the stratospheric temperatures. In the lower stratosphere we find that transport by analysed winds

  11. MODELLING, SIMULATING AND OPTIMIZING BOILERS

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Kim; Condra, Thomas Joseph; Houbak, Niels

    2004-01-01

    on the boiler) have been dened. Furthermore a number of constraints related to: minimum and maximum boiler load gradient, minimum boiler size, Shrinking and Swelling and Steam Space Load have been dened. For dening the constraints related to the required boiler volume a dynamic model for simulating the boiler...... performance has been developed. Outputs from the simulations are shrinking and swelling of water level in the drum during for example a start-up of the boiler, these gures combined with the requirements with respect to allowable water level uctuations in the drum denes the requirements with respect to drum...... size. The model has been formulated with a specied building-up of the pressure during the start-up of the plant, i.e. the steam production during start-up of the boiler is output from the model. The steam outputs together with requirements with respect to steam space load have been utilized to dene...

  12. Modeling and Simulation of Nanoindentation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Sixie; Zhou, Caizhi

    2017-08-01

    Nanoindentation is a hardness test method applied to small volumes of material which can provide some unique effects and spark many related research activities. To fully understand the phenomena observed during nanoindentation tests, modeling and simulation methods have been developed to predict the mechanical response of materials during nanoindentation. However, challenges remain with those computational approaches, because of their length scale, predictive capability, and accuracy. This article reviews recent progress and challenges for modeling and simulation of nanoindentation, including an overview of molecular dynamics, the quasicontinuum method, discrete dislocation dynamics, and the crystal plasticity finite element method, and discusses how to integrate multiscale modeling approaches seamlessly with experimental studies to understand the length-scale effects and microstructure evolution during nanoindentation tests, creating a unique opportunity to establish new calibration procedures for the nanoindentation technique.

  13. Multiscale Stochastic Simulation and Modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    James Glimm; Xiaolin Li

    2006-01-10

    Acceleration driven instabilities of fluid mixing layers include the classical cases of Rayleigh-Taylor instability, driven by a steady acceleration and Richtmyer-Meshkov instability, driven by an impulsive acceleration. Our program starts with high resolution methods of numerical simulation of two (or more) distinct fluids, continues with analytic analysis of these solutions, and the derivation of averaged equations. A striking achievement has been the systematic agreement we obtained between simulation and experiment by using a high resolution numerical method and improved physical modeling, with surface tension. Our study is accompanies by analysis using stochastic modeling and averaged equations for the multiphase problem. We have quantified the error and uncertainty using statistical modeling methods.

  14. Excitation of equatorial Kelvin and Yanai waves by tropical cyclones in an ocean general circulation model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. L. Sriver

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Tropical cyclones (TCs actively contribute to the dynamics of Earth's coupled climate system. They influence oceanic mixing rates, upper-ocean heat content, and air–sea fluxes, with implications for atmosphere and ocean dynamics on multiple spatial and temporal scales. Using an ocean general circulation model with modified surface wind forcing, we explore how TC winds can excite equatorial ocean waves in the tropical Pacific. We highlight a situation where three successive TCs in the western North Pacific region, corresponding to events in 2003, excite a combination of Kelvin and Yanai waves in the equatorial Pacific. The resultant thermocline adjustment significantly modifies the thermal structure of the upper equatorial Pacific and leads to eastward zonal heat transport. Observations of upper-ocean temperature by the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO buoy array and sea-level height anomalies using altimetry reveal wave passage during the same time period with similar properties to the modeled wave, although our idealized model methodology disallows precise identification of the TC forcing with the observed waves. Results indicate that direct oceanographic forcing by TCs may be important for understanding the spectrum of equatorial ocean waves, thus remotely influencing tropical mixing and surface energy budgets. Because equatorial Kelvin waves are closely linked to interannual variability in the tropical Pacific, these findings also suggest TC wind forcing may influence the timing and amplitude of El Niño events.

  15. Modelling deep convection and its impacts on the tropical tropopause layer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. S. Hosking

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available The UK Met Office's Unified Model is used at a high global resolution (N216, ~0.83° × ~0.56°, ~60 km to assess the impact of deep tropical convection on the structure of the tropical tropopause layer (TTL. We focus on the potential for rapid transport of short-lived ozone depleting species to the stratosphere by rapid convective uplift. The modelled horizontal structure of organised convection is shown to match closely with signatures found in the OLR satellite data. In the model, deep convective elevators rapidly lift air from 4–5 km up to 12–14 km. The influx of tropospheric air entering the TTL (11–12 km is similar for all tropical regions with most convection stopping below ~14 km. The tropical tropopause is coldest and driest between November and February, coinciding with the greatest upwelling over the tropical warm pool. As this deep convection is co-located with bromine-rich biogenic coastal emissions, this period and location could potentially be the preferential gateway for stratospheric bromine.

  16. Excitation of equatorial Kelvin and Yanai waves by tropical cyclones in an ocean general circulation model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. L. Sriver

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Tropical cyclones (TCs actively contribute to the dynamics of Earth's coupled climate system. They influence oceanic mixing rates, upper-ocean heat content, and air-sea fluxes, with implications for atmosphere and ocean dynamics on multiple spatial and temporal scales. Using an ocean general circulation model with modified surface wind forcing, we explore how TC winds can excite equatorial ocean waves in the tropical Pacific. We highlight a situation where three successive TCs in the western North Pacific region, corresponding to events in 2003, excite a combination of Kelvin and Yanai waves in the equatorial Pacific. The resultant thermocline adjustment significantly modifies the thermal structure of the upper equatorial Pacific and leads to eastward zonal heat transport. Observations of upper-ocean temperature by the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO buoy array and sea-level height anomalies using altimetry reveal wave passage during the same time period with similar properties to the modeled wave, although our idealized model methodology disallows precise identification of the TC forcing with the observed waves. Results indicate that direct oceanographic forcing by TCs may be important for understanding the spectrum of equatorial ocean waves, thus remotely influencing tropical mixing and surface energy budgets. Because equatorial Kelvin waves are closely linked to interannual variability in the tropical Pacific, these findings also suggest TC wind forcing may influence the timing and amplitude of El Niño events.

  17. Modelling tropical cyclone hazards under climate change scenario using geospatial techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoque, M. A.; Phinn, S.; Roelfsema, C.; Childs, I.

    2016-11-01

    Tropical cyclones are a common and devastating natural disaster in many coastal areas of the world. As the intensity and frequency of cyclones will increase under the most likely future climate change scenarios, appropriate approaches at local scales (1-5 km) are essential for producing sufficiently detailed hazard models. These models are used to develop mitigation plans and strategies for reducing the impacts of cyclones. This study developed and tested a hazard modelling approach for cyclone impacts in Sarankhola upazila, a 151 km2 local government area in coastal Bangladesh. The study integrated remote sensing, spatial analysis and field data to model cyclone generated hazards under a climate change scenario at local scales covering model integrating historical cyclone data and Digital Elevation Model (DEM) was used to generate the cyclone hazard maps for different cyclone return periods. Frequency analysis was carried out using historical cyclone data (1960--2015) to calculate the storm surge heights of 5, 10, 20, 50 and 100 year return periods of cyclones. Local sea level rise scenario of 0.34 m for the year 2050 was simulated with 20 and 50 years return periods. Our results showed that cyclone affected areas increased with the increase of return periods. Around 63% of study area was located in the moderate to very high hazard zones for 50 year return period, while it was 70% for 100 year return period. The climate change scenarios increased the cyclone impact area by 6-10 % in every return period. Our findings indicate this approach has potential to model the cyclone hazards for developing mitigation plans and strategies to reduce the future impacts of cyclones.

  18. The active tropical cyclone season of 2005 2006 over Northwest Australia: Operational model performance and high resolution case studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buckley, B. W.; Leslie, L. M.; Leplastrier, M.; Qi, L.

    2007-08-01

    There are three main aims of this study. First, the main features of the active 2005 2006 Australian region tropical cyclone (TC) season are summarized, with particular emphasis on the northwest Australian region. Second, an assessment is made of the skill of the available operational global and regional numerical weather prediction (NWP) models for three of the most significant TCs (TCs Clare, Glenda and Hubert), each of which made landfall on the northwest coast of Australia. Third, high-resolution numerical modelling simulations of these same three TCs are described in detail. The numerical weather prediction (NWP) model used here was developed at the University of Oklahoma, and in this study it utilises initial and boundary conditions obtained from archived analyses and forecasts provided by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, as well as a 4D-Var data assimilation scheme to ingest all available satellite data. The high-resolution numerical model is multiply two-way nested, with the innermost domain having a resolution of 5 km. It was found that unlike the operational models, which were restricted by relatively low resolution and less data, the high resolution model was able to capture most of the major features of all three TC lifecycles including development from initial tropical depressions, intensification, and their tracks, landfall, and associated rainfall and wind fields.

  19. Assessment of Molecular Modeling & Simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2002-01-03

    This report reviews the development and applications of molecular and materials modeling in Europe and Japan in comparison to those in the United States. Topics covered include computational quantum chemistry, molecular simulations by molecular dynamics and Monte Carlo methods, mesoscale modeling of material domains, molecular-structure/macroscale property correlations like QSARs and QSPRs, and related information technologies like informatics and special-purpose molecular-modeling computers. The panel's findings include the following: The United States leads this field in many scientific areas. However, Canada has particular strengths in DFT methods and homogeneous catalysis; Europe in heterogeneous catalysis, mesoscale, and materials modeling; and Japan in materials modeling and special-purpose computing. Major government-industry initiatives are underway in Europe and Japan, notably in multi-scale materials modeling and in development of chemistry-capable ab-initio molecular dynamics codes.

  20. Animal models for simulating weightlessness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morey-Holton, E.; Wronski, T. J.

    1982-01-01

    NASA has developed a rat model to simulate on earth some aspects of the weightlessness alterations experienced in space, i.e., unloading and fluid shifts. Comparison of data collected from space flight and from the head-down rat suspension model suggests that this model system reproduces many of the physiological alterations induced by space flight. Data from various versions of the rat model are virtually identical for the same parameters; thus, modifications of the model for acute, chronic, or metabolic studies do not alter the results as long as the critical components of the model are maintained, i.e., a cephalad shift of fluids and/or unloading of the rear limbs.

  1. A Statistical Approach For Modeling Tropical Cyclones. Synthetic Hurricanes Generator Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pasqualini, Donatella [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2016-05-11

    This manuscript brie y describes a statistical ap- proach to generate synthetic tropical cyclone tracks to be used in risk evaluations. The Synthetic Hur- ricane Generator (SynHurG) model allows model- ing hurricane risk in the United States supporting decision makers and implementations of adaptation strategies to extreme weather. In the literature there are mainly two approaches to model hurricane hazard for risk prediction: deterministic-statistical approaches, where the storm key physical parameters are calculated using physi- cal complex climate models and the tracks are usually determined statistically from historical data; and sta- tistical approaches, where both variables and tracks are estimated stochastically using historical records. SynHurG falls in the second category adopting a pure stochastic approach.

  2. Simulation Tool for Inventory Models: SIMIN

    OpenAIRE

    Pratiksha Saxen; Tulsi Kushwaha

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, an integrated simulation optimization model for the inventory system is developed. An effective algorithm is developed to evaluate and analyze the back-end stored simulation results. This paper proposes simulation tool SIMIN (Inventory Simulation) to simulate inventory models. SIMIN is a tool which simulates and compares the results of different inventory models. To overcome various practical restrictive assumptions, SIMIN provides values for a number of performance measurement...

  3. Stratospheric dryness: model simulations and satellite observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Lelieveld

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available The mechanisms responsible for the extreme dryness of the stratosphere have been debated for decades. A key difficulty has been the lack of comprehensive models which are able to reproduce the observations. Here we examine results from the coupled lower-middle atmosphere chemistry general circulation model ECHAM5/MESSy1 together with satellite observations. Our model results match observed temperatures in the tropical lower stratosphere and realistically represent the seasonal and inter-annual variability of water vapor. The model reproduces the very low water vapor mixing ratios (below 2 ppmv periodically observed at the tropical tropopause near 100 hPa, as well as the characteristic tape recorder signal up to about 10 hPa, providing evidence that the dehydration mechanism is well-captured. Our results confirm that the entry of tropospheric air into the tropical stratosphere is forced by large-scale wave dynamics, whereas radiative cooling regionally decelerates upwelling and can even cause downwelling. Thin cirrus forms in the cold air above cumulonimbus clouds, and the associated sedimentation of ice particles between 100 and 200 hPa reduces water mass fluxes by nearly two orders of magnitude compared to air mass fluxes. Transport into the stratosphere is supported by regional net radiative heating, to a large extent in the outer tropics. During summer very deep monsoon convection over Southeast Asia, centered over Tibet, moistens the stratosphere.

  4. Sensitivity of Tropical Cyclones to Parameterized Convection in the NASA GEOS5 Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, Young-Kwon; Schubert, Siegfried D.; Reale, Oreste; Lee, Myong-In; Molod, Andrea M.; Suarez, Max J.

    2014-01-01

    The sensitivity of tropical cyclones (TCs) to changes in parameterized convection is investigated to improve the simulation of TCs in the North Atlantic. Specifically, the impact of reducing the influence of the Relaxed Arakawa-Schubert (RAS) scheme-based parameterized convection is explored using the Goddard Earth Observing System version5 (GEOS5) model at 0.25 horizontal resolution. The years 2005 and 2006 characterized by very active and inactive hurricane seasons, respectively, are selected for simulation. A reduction in parameterized deep convection results in an increase in TC activity (e.g., TC number and longer life cycle) to more realistic levels compared to the baseline control configuration. The vertical and horizontal structure of the strongest simulated hurricane shows the maximum lower-level (850-950hPa) wind speed greater than 60 ms and the minimum sea level pressure reaching 940mb, corresponding to a category 4 hurricane - a category never achieved by the control configuration. The radius of the maximum wind of 50km, the location of the warm core exceeding 10 C, and the horizontal compactness of the hurricane center are all quite realistic without any negatively affecting the atmospheric mean state. This study reveals that an increase in the threshold of minimum entrainment suppresses parameterized deep convection by entraining more dry air into the typical plume. This leads to cooling and drying at the mid- to upper-troposphere, along with the positive latent heat flux and moistening in the lower-troposphere. The resulting increase in conditional instability provides an environment that is more conducive to TC vortex development and upward moisture flux convergence by dynamically resolved moist convection, thereby increasing TC activity.

  5. Standard for Models and Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steele, Martin J.

    2016-01-01

    This NASA Technical Standard establishes uniform practices in modeling and simulation to ensure essential requirements are applied to the design, development, and use of models and simulations (MS), while ensuring acceptance criteria are defined by the program project and approved by the responsible Technical Authority. It also provides an approved set of requirements, recommendations, and criteria with which MS may be developed, accepted, and used in support of NASA activities. As the MS disciplines employed and application areas involved are broad, the common aspects of MS across all NASA activities are addressed. The discipline-specific details of a given MS should be obtained from relevant recommended practices. The primary purpose is to reduce the risks associated with MS-influenced decisions by ensuring the complete communication of the credibility of MS results.

  6. The Bjerknes feedback in the tropical Atlantic in CMIP5 models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deppenmeier, Anna-Lena; Haarsma, Reindert J.; Hazeleger, Wilco

    2016-10-01

    Coupled state-of-the-art general circulation models still perform relatively poorly in simulating tropical Atlantic (TA) climate. To investigate whether lack of air-sea interaction might be responsible for their biases, we investigate the Bjerknes feedback (BF) in the TA, the driver of the dominant interannual variability in that region. First, we analyse this mechanism from reanalysis data. Then, we compare our findings to model output from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. The feedback is subdivided into three components. The first one consists of the influence of eastern equatorial sea surface temperature anomalies (SST') on zonal wind stress anomalies (τ _u') in the western basin. The second component is the influence of wind stress anomalies in the western TA on eastern equatorial oceanic heat content anomalies (HC'). The third component is the local response of overlying SST' to HC' in the eastern TA. All three components are shown to be present in ERA-Interim and ORAS4 reanalysis by correlating the two variables of each component with each other. The obtained patterns are compared to the ones from model output via pattern correlation per component. While the models display errors in the annual cycles of SST, τ _u, and HC, as well as in the seasonality of the feedback, the impact of SST' on wind stress and the impact of wind stress on HC' are simulated relatively well by most of the models. This is especially the case when correcting for the error in seasonality. The third component of the BF, the impact of HC' on SST' in the eastern part of the basin, deviates from what we find in reanalysis. We find an influence of HC anomalies on overlying SSTs in the eastern equatorial TA, but it is weaker than in the reanalysis and it is not strongly confined to the equator. Longitude-depth cross sections of equatorial temperature variance and correlation between subsurface temperature anomalies and SST' in the cold tongue region show that flawed

  7. Nonbreaking wave-induced mixing in upper ocean during tropical cyclones using coupled hurricane-ocean-wave modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aijaz, S.; Ghantous, M.; Babanin, A. V.; Ginis, I.; Thomas, B.; Wake, G.

    2017-05-01

    The effects of turbulence generated by nonbreaking waves have been investigated by testing and evaluating a new nonbreaking wave parameterization in a coupled hurricane-ocean-wave model. The MPI version of the Princeton Ocean Model (POM) with hurricane forcing is coupled with the WAVEWATCH-III (WW3) surface wave model. Hurricane Ivan is chosen as the test case due to its extreme intensity and availability of field data during its passage. The model results are validated against field observations of wave heights and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) from the National Data Buoy Centre (NDBC) during Hurricane Ivan and against limited in situ current and bottom temperature data. A series of numerical experiments is set up to examine the influence of the nonbreaking wave parameterization on the mixing of upper ocean. The SST response from the modeling experiments indicates that the nonbreaking wave-induced mixing leads to significant cooling of the SST and deepening of the mixed layer. It was found that the nondimensional constant b1 in the nonbreaking wave parameterization has different impacts on the weak and the strong sides of the storm track. A constant value of b1 leads to improved predictions on the strong side of the storm while a steepness-dependent b1 provides a better agreement with in situ observations on the weak side. A separate simulation of the intense tropical cyclone Olwyn in north-west Australia revealed the same trend for b1 on the strong side of the tropical cyclone.

  8. A Statistical Model of Tropical Cyclone Tracks in the Western North Pacific with ENSO-Dependent Cyclogenesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yonekura, Emmi; Hall, Timothy M.

    2011-01-01

    A new statistical model for western North Pacific Ocean tropical cyclone genesis and tracks is developed and applied to estimate regionally resolved tropical cyclone landfall rates along the coasts of the Asian mainland, Japan, and the Philippines. The model is constructed on International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) 1945-2007 historical data for the western North Pacific. The model is evaluated in several ways, including comparing the stochastic spread in simulated landfall rates with historic landfall rates. Although certain biases have been detected, overall the model performs well on the diagnostic tests, for example, reproducing well the geographic distribution of landfall rates. Western North Pacific cyclogenesis is influenced by El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This dependence is incorporated in the model s genesis component to project the ENSO-genesis dependence onto landfall rates. There is a pronounced shift southeastward in cyclogenesis and a small but significant reduction in basinwide annual counts with increasing ENSO index value. On almost all regions of coast, landfall rates are significantly higher in a negative ENSO state (La Nina).

  9. Satellite altimetry and hydrologic modeling of poorly-gauged tropical watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sulistioadi, Yohanes Budi

    proves that satellite altimetry provides a good alternative or the only means in some regions to measure the water level of medium-sized river (200--800 m width) and small lake (extent less than 1000 km 2) in Southeast Asia humid tropic with reasonable accuracy. In addition, the procedure to choose retracked Envisat altimetry water level heights via identification or selection of over water waveform shapes is reliable; therefore this study concluded that the use of waveform shape selection procedure should be a standard measure in determining qualified range measurements especially over small rivers and lakes. This study also found that Ice-1 is not necessarily the best retracker as reported by previous studies, among the four standard waveform retracking algorithms for Envisat altimetry observing hydrologic bodies. The second study modeled the response of the poorly-gauged watershed in the Southeast Asia's humid tropic through the application of Hydrologic Engineering Center -- Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS). The performance evaluation of HEC-HMS discharge estimation confirms a good match between the simulated discharges with the observed ones. As the result of precipitation data analysis, this study found that Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) is the preferred input forcing for the model, given the thorough evaluation of its relationship with field-measured precipitation data prior to its use as primary climatic forcing. This research also proposes a novel approach to process the TRMM precipitation estimation spatially through Thiessen polygon and area average hybrid method, which model the spatial distribution of TRMM data to match the spatial location of field meteorological stations. Through a simultaneous validation that compares the water level anomaly transformed from HEC-HMS simulated discharge and satellite altimetry measurement, this study found that satellite altimetry measures water level anomaly

  10. Multi-model ensemble-based probabilistic prediction of tropical cyclogenesis using TIGGE model forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaiswal, Neeru; Kishtawal, C. M.; Bhomia, Swati; Pal, P. K.

    2016-10-01

    An extended range tropical cyclogenesis forecast model has been developed using the forecasts of global models available from TIGGE portal. A scheme has been developed to detect the signatures of cyclogenesis in the global model forecast fields [i.e., the mean sea level pressure and surface winds (10 m horizontal winds)]. For this, a wind matching index was determined between the synthetic cyclonic wind fields and the forecast wind fields. The thresholds of 0.4 for wind matching index and 1005 hpa for pressure were determined to detect the cyclonic systems. These detected cyclonic systems in the study region are classified into different cyclone categories based on their intensity (maximum wind speed). The forecasts of up to 15 days from three global models viz., ECMWF, NCEP and UKMO have been used to predict cyclogenesis based on multi-model ensemble approach. The occurrence of cyclonic events of different categories in all the forecast steps in the grided region (10 × 10 km2) was used to estimate the probability of the formation of cyclogenesis. The probability of cyclogenesis was estimated by computing the grid score using the wind matching index by each model and at each forecast step and convolving it with Gaussian filter. The proposed method is used to predict the cyclogenesis of five named tropical cyclones formed during the year 2013 in the north Indian Ocean. The 6-8 days advance cyclogenesis of theses systems were predicted using the above approach. The mean lead prediction time for the cyclogenesis event of the proposed model has been found as 7 days.

  11. Collaborative Research: Atlantic Ocean Tropical/Subtropical Processes from Seasonal to Decadal Time Scales: Model/Data, Model/Model Comparison and Model/Data Synthesis Through Assimilation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malannotte-Rizzoli, Paola

    2003-01-01

    The effort of this first year of research has been focused on the assimilation of TOPEX/Poseidon altimetric data into a primitive equation model of the Atlantic tropical/subtropical circulation. A reduced-rank, stationary Kalman filter has been constructed to assimilate the altimetric sea surface height anomaly (SHA) into the model. The goal is to assess how the inter-hemispheric transports between the Atlantic subtropics and tropics are affected by the assimilation and how the subsurface thermocline structure , and its variability ,is dynamically constrained by the SHA. The model is a reduced-gravity primitive equation GCM of the upper Atlantic Ocean between 30 S and 30 N. The assimilation scheme is an approximation to the extended Kalman filter in which the error covariances of the state estimates are calculated only in a reduced- dimension subspace. The subspace is defined by the leading empirical orthogonal functions calculated from an unconstrained model calculation. Both an identical twin experiment using simulated SHA observations and assimilation of the real TOPEX data were performed. Results from the twin experiments demonstrate the ability of the method to constrain the ocean circulation and the subsurface temperature structure. The impact on the subsurface temperature structure of TOPEX assimilation was assessed using data from expandable bathythermographs. This showed a substantial improvement in the estimated temperature variability only within 13 degrees in latitude around the equator. The impact of TOPEX SHA assimilation on zonally integrated meridional transport across different latitudes was also estimated. Again within 13 degrees from the equator both the mean amplitude and interannual variability of the surface and subsurface transports were significantly enhanced, while the transports were insensitive to the assimilation in the subtropics.

  12. Model for Simulation Atmospheric Turbulence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lundtang Petersen, Erik

    1976-01-01

    A method that produces realistic simulations of atmospheric turbulence is developed and analyzed. The procedure makes use of a generalized spectral analysis, often called a proper orthogonal decomposition or the Karhunen-Loève expansion. A set of criteria, emphasizing a realistic appearance, a co....... The method is unique in modeling the three velocity components simultaneously, and it is found that important cross-statistical features are reasonably well-behaved. It is concluded that the model provides a practical, operational simulator of atmospheric turbulence.......A method that produces realistic simulations of atmospheric turbulence is developed and analyzed. The procedure makes use of a generalized spectral analysis, often called a proper orthogonal decomposition or the Karhunen-Loève expansion. A set of criteria, emphasizing a realistic appearance......, a correct spectral shape, and non-Gaussian statistics, is selected in order to evaluate the model turbulence. An actual turbulence record is analyzed in detail providing both a standard for comparison and input statistics for the generalized spectral analysis, which in turn produces a set of orthonormal...

  13. Evaluating the Climate Role of Tropical Cyclones Using an Atmospheric General Circulation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winterbottom, H. R.; Pegion, P. J.; Hart, R. E.

    2011-12-01

    A formal assessment and an identification for the global circulation impact of a tropical cyclone (TC) remains in the developmental stages. This area of research was first suggested by Bengtsson et al., [1982], when questions were posed regarding the role of TCs with respect to the poleward transport of heat, moisture, and momentum. To date, much attention has been paid to the role of oceanic heat transport [Emanuel, 2001; Sriver and Huber, 2007; Hart et al., 2007; Liu et al., 2008; Hu and Meehl, 2009]. Fewer studies, however, have identified an explicit role for the TC within the atmosphere, although recent work has begun to quantify the magnitude of that atmospheric footprint from reanalysis datasets [Hart et al., 2007; Schenkel and Hart, 2011]. A recent study by Hart [2011] deduced a statistical relationship between northern hemisphere TC activity (evaluated using both TC count and power dissipation [Emanuel, 2007]) and the subsequent winter climate. Hart [2011] ascertained that there exists a strong (statistical) inverse relationship between the amount of pole-ward TC power-dissipation (e.g., recurving TCs) and the 500-hPa extratropical stationary eddy-temperature flux, and speculated on the physical (and potential nonphysical) explanations for such a relationship. Indeed, the relationship was so strong that it was the most robust predictor of this measure of wind activity amidst all known teleconnection indices. These prior works provide the foundation on which to further explore the TC role in climate. Accordingly, in this study, we diagnose the climatic impact of TCs upon the Earth's general circulation using the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) and the TC vortex removal procedure discussed by Winterbottom and Chassignet [2011]. A series of experiments with and without TCs will be compared. We will evaluate the mean and transient eddy fluxes as a function of a simulation with TCs and a simulation without. We

  14. MODELING THE DYNAMICS OF THREE FUNCTIONAL GROUPS OF MACROALGAE IN TROPICAL SEAGRASS HABITATS. (R828677C004)

    Science.gov (United States)

    A model of three functional groups of macroalgae, drift algae, rhizophytic calcareous algae, and seagrass epiphytes, was developed to complement an existing seagrass production model for tropical habitats dominated by Thalassia testudinum (Turtle-grass). The current modeling e...

  15. A physically based approach to model LAI from MODIS 250 m data in a tropical region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Propastin, Pavel; Erasmi, Stefan

    2010-02-01

    A time series of leaf area index (LAI) has been developed based on 16-day normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) at 250 m resolution (MOD250_LAI). The MOD250_LAI product uses a physical radiative transfer model which establishes a relationship between LAI, fraction of vegetation cover (FVC) and given patterns of surface reflectance, view-illumination conditions and optical properties of vegetation. In situ measurements of LAI and FVC made at 166 plots using hemispherical photography served for calibration of model parameters and validation of modelling results. Optical properties of vegetation cover, summarized by the light extinction coefficient, were computed at the local (pixel) level based on empirical models between ground-measured tree crown architecture at 85 sampling plots and spectral values in Landsat ETM+ bands. Influence of view-illumination conditions on optical properties of canopy was simulated by a view angle geometry model incorporating the solar zenith angle and the sensor viewing angle. The results revealed high compatibility of the produced MOD250_LAI data set with ground truth information and the 30 m resolution Landsat ETM+ LAI estimated using the similar algorithm. The produced MOD250_LAI was also compared with the global MODIS 1000-m LAI product (MOD15A2 LAI). Results show good consistency of the spatial distribution and temporal dynamics between the two LAI products. However, the results also showed that the annual LAI amplitude by the MOD15A2 product is significantly higher than by the MOD250_LAI. This higher amplitude is caused by a considerable underestimation of the tropical rainforest LAI by the MOD15A2 during the seasonal phases of low leaf production.

  16. Aboveground Biomass Modeling from Field and LiDAR Data in Brazilian Amazon Tropical Rain Forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva, C. A.; Hudak, A. T.; Vierling, L. A.; Keller, M. M.; Klauberg Silva, C. K.

    2015-12-01

    Tropical forests are an important component of global carbon stocks, but tropical forest responses to climate change are not sufficiently studied or understood. Among remote sensing technologies, airborne LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) may be best suited for quantifying tropical forest carbon stocks. Our objective was to estimate aboveground biomass (AGB) using airborne LiDAR and field plot data in Brazilian tropical rain forest. Forest attributes such as tree density, diameter at breast height, and heights were measured at a combination of square plots and linear transects (n=82) distributed across six different geographic zones in the Amazon. Using previously published allometric equations, tree AGB was computed and then summed to calculate total AGB at each sample plot. LiDAR-derived canopy structure metrics were also computed at each sample plot, and random forest regression modelling was applied to predict AGB from selected LiDAR metrics. The LiDAR-derived AGB model was assessed using the random forest explained variation, adjusted coefficient of determination (Adj. R²), root mean square error (RMSE, both absolute and relative) and BIAS (both absolute and relative). Our findings showed that the 99th percentile of height and height skewness were the best LiDAR metrics for AGB prediction. The AGB model using these two best predictors explained 59.59% of AGB variation, with an Adj. R² of 0.92, RMSE of 33.37 Mg/ha (20.28%), and bias of -0.69 (-0.42%). This study showed that LiDAR canopy structure metrics can be used to predict AGC stocks in Tropical Forest with acceptable precision and accuracy. Therefore, we conclude that there is good potential to monitor carbon sequestration in Brazilian Tropical Rain Forest using airborne LiDAR data, large field plots, and the random forest algorithm.

  17. Mesoscale modelling of water vapour in the tropical UTLS: two case studies from the HIBISCUS campaign

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Marécal

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available In this study, we evaluate the ability of the BRAMS (Brazilian Regional Atmospheric Modeling System mesoscale model compared to ECMWF global analysis to simulate the observed vertical variations of water vapour in the tropical upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS. The observations are balloon-borne measurements of water vapour mixing ratio and temperature from micro-SDLA (Tunable Diode Laser Spectrometer instrument. Data from two balloon flights performed during the 2004 HIBISCUS field campaign are used to compare with the mesoscale simulations and to the ECMWF analysis. The observations exhibit fine scale vertical structures of water vapour of a few hundred meters height. The ECMWF vertical resolution (~1 km is too coarse to capture these vertical structures in the UTLS. With a vertical resolution similar to ECMWF, the mesoscale model performs better than ECMWF analysis for water vapour in the upper troposphere and similarly or slightly worse for temperature. The BRAMS model with 250 m vertical resolution is able to capture more of the observed fine scale vertical variations of water vapour compared to runs with a coarser vertical resolution. This is mainly related to: (i the enhanced vertical resolution in the UTLS and (ii to the more detailed microphysical parameterization providing ice supersaturations as in the observations. In near saturated or supersaturated layers, the mesoscale model predicted relative humidity with respect to ice saturation is close to observations provided that the temperature profile is realistic. For temperature, the ECMWF analysis gives good results partly attributed to data assimilation. The analysis of the mesoscale model results showed that the vertical variations of the water vapour profile depends on the dynamics in unsaturated layer while the microphysical processes play a major role in saturated/supersaturated layers. In the lower stratosphere, the ECMWF model and the BRAMS model give very similar

  18. Model fit versus biological relevance: Evaluating photosynthesis-temperature models for three tropical seagrass species

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adams, Matthew P.; Collier, Catherine J.; Uthicke, Sven; Ow, Yan X.; Langlois, Lucas; O’Brien, Katherine R.

    2017-01-01

    When several models can describe a biological process, the equation that best fits the data is typically considered the best. However, models are most useful when they also possess biologically-meaningful parameters. In particular, model parameters should be stable, physically interpretable, and transferable to other contexts, e.g. for direct indication of system state, or usage in other model types. As an example of implementing these recommended requirements for model parameters, we evaluated twelve published empirical models for temperature-dependent tropical seagrass photosynthesis, based on two criteria: (1) goodness of fit, and (2) how easily biologically-meaningful parameters can be obtained. All models were formulated in terms of parameters characterising the thermal optimum (Topt) for maximum photosynthetic rate (Pmax). These parameters indicate the upper thermal limits of seagrass photosynthetic capacity, and hence can be used to assess the vulnerability of seagrass to temperature change. Our study exemplifies an approach to model selection which optimises the usefulness of empirical models for both modellers and ecologists alike.

  19. Numerical modeling of storm surges in the coast of Mozambique: the cases of tropical cyclones Bonita (1996) and Lisette (1997)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bié, Alberto José; de Camargo, Ricardo; Mavume, Alberto Francisco; Harari, Joseph

    2017-09-01

    The coast of Mozambique is often affected by storms, particularly tropical cyclones during summer or sometimes midlatitude systems in the southern part. Storm surges combined with high freshwater discharge can drive huge coastal floods, affecting both urban and rural areas. To improve the knowledge about the impact of storm surges in the coast of Mozambique, this study presents the first attempt to model this phenomenon through the implementation of the Princeton Ocean Model (POM) in the Southwestern Indian Ocean domain (SWIO; 2-32°S, 28-85°E) using a regular grid with 1/6° of spatial resolution and 36 sigma levels. The simulation was performed for the period 1979-2010, and the most interesting events of surges were related to tropical cyclones Bonita (1996) and Lisette (1997) that occurred in the Mozambique Channel. The results showed that the model represented well the amplitude and phase of principal lunar and solar tidal constituents, as well as it captured the spatial pattern and magnitudes of SST with slight positive bias in summer and negative bias in winter months. In terms of SSH, the model underestimated the presence of mesoscale eddies, mainly in the Mozambique Channel. Our results also showed that the atmospheric sea level pressure had a significant contribution to storm heights during the landfall of the tropical cyclones Bonita (1996) and Lisette (1997) in the coast of Mozambique contributing with about 20 and 16% of the total surge height for each case, respectively, surpassing the contribution of the tide-surge nonlinear interactions by a factor of 2.

  20. Advances in Intelligent Modelling and Simulation Simulation Tools and Applications

    CERN Document Server

    Oplatková, Zuzana; Carvalho, Marco; Kisiel-Dorohinicki, Marek

    2012-01-01

    The human capacity to abstract complex systems and phenomena into simplified models has played a critical role in the rapid evolution of our modern industrial processes and scientific research. As a science and an art, Modelling and Simulation have been one of the core enablers of this remarkable human trace, and have become a topic of great importance for researchers and practitioners. This book was created to compile some of the most recent concepts, advances, challenges and ideas associated with Intelligent Modelling and Simulation frameworks, tools and applications. The first chapter discusses the important aspects of a human interaction and the correct interpretation of results during simulations. The second chapter gets to the heart of the analysis of entrepreneurship by means of agent-based modelling and simulations. The following three chapters bring together the central theme of simulation frameworks, first describing an agent-based simulation framework, then a simulator for electrical machines, and...

  1. Verifying and Validating Simulation Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hemez, Francois M. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2015-02-23

    This presentation is a high-level discussion of the Verification and Validation (V&V) of computational models. Definitions of V&V are given to emphasize that “validation” is never performed in a vacuum; it accounts, instead, for the current state-of-knowledge in the discipline considered. In particular comparisons between physical measurements and numerical predictions should account for their respective sources of uncertainty. The differences between error (bias), aleatoric uncertainty (randomness) and epistemic uncertainty (ignorance, lack-of- knowledge) are briefly discussed. Four types of uncertainty in physics and engineering are discussed: 1) experimental variability, 2) variability and randomness, 3) numerical uncertainty and 4) model-form uncertainty. Statistical sampling methods are available to propagate, and analyze, variability and randomness. Numerical uncertainty originates from the truncation error introduced by the discretization of partial differential equations in time and space. Model-form uncertainty is introduced by assumptions often formulated to render a complex problem more tractable and amenable to modeling and simulation. The discussion concludes with high-level guidance to assess the “credibility” of numerical simulations, which stems from the level of rigor with which these various sources of uncertainty are assessed and quantified.

  2. Colour Model for Outdoor Machine Vision for Tropical Regions and its Comparison with the CIE Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sahragard, Nasrolah; Ramli, Abdul Rahman B [Institute of Advanced Technology, Universiti Putra Malaysia 43400 Serdang, Selangor (Malaysia); Marhaban, Mohammad Hamiruce [Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Universiti Putra Malaysia 43400 Serdang, Selangor (Malaysia); Mansor, Shattri B, E-mail: sahragard@yahoo.com [Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Universiti Putra Malaysia 43400 Serdang, Selangor (Malaysia)

    2011-02-15

    Accurate modeling of daylight and surface reflectance are very useful for most outdoor machine vision applications specifically those which are based on color recognition. Existing daylight CIE model has drawbacks that limit its ability to predict the color of incident light. These limitations include lack of considering ambient light, effects of light reflected off the ground, and context specific information. Previously developed color model is only tested for a few geographical places in North America and its accountability is under question for other places in the world. Besides, existing surface reflectance models are not easily applied to outdoor images. A reflectance model with combined diffuse and specular reflection in normalized HSV color space could be used to predict color. In this paper, a new daylight color model showing the color of daylight for a broad range of sky conditions is developed which will suit weather conditions of tropical places such as Malaysia. A comparison of this daylight color model and daylight CIE model will be discussed. The colors of matte and specular surfaces have been estimated by use of the developed color model and surface reflection function in this paper. The results are shown to be highly reliable.

  3. Tropical Peatland water management modelling of the Air Hitam Laut catchment in Indonesia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wösten, H.; Hooijer, A.; Siderius, C.; Dira Satriadi Rais,; Aswandi Idris,; Rieley, J.

    2006-01-01

    Human induced land use change and associated fire alter profoundly the hydrology of tropical peatlands and thus affect the functioning of entire river catchments. The hydrological model SIMGRO was used to calculate the effects of drainage on peat water levels, peat surface morphology and river flows

  4. Applying Climatically Associated Species Pools to modelling compositional change in tropical montane forests

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Golicher, J.D.; Cayuela, L.; Alkemade, J.R.M.; González-Espinosa, M.; Ramírez-Marcial, N.

    2008-01-01

    Aim Predictive species distribution modelling is a useful tool for extracting the maximum amount of information from biological collections and floristic inventories. However, in many tropical regions records are only available from a small number of sites. This can limit the application of predicti

  5. Applying Climatically Associated Species Pools to modelling compositional change in tropical montane forests

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Golicher, J.D.; Cayuela, L.; Alkemade, J.R.M.; González-Espinosa, M.; Ramírez-Marcial, N.

    2008-01-01

    Aim Predictive species distribution modelling is a useful tool for extracting the maximum amount of information from biological collections and floristic inventories. However, in many tropical regions records are only available from a small number of sites. This can limit the application of

  6. High resolution model projections of tropical cyclone landfall over southern Africa under enhanced anthropogenic forcing

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Malherbe, J

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available , no such change has been noted when all closed warm-core low pressure systems are considered. Several studies have through the use of coupled global circulation models globally reported a projected decrease in the number of tropical cyclones expected under...

  7. Peatland simulator connecting drainage, nutrient cycling, forest growth, economy and GHG efflux in boreal and tropical peatlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lauren, Ari; Hökkä, Hannu; Launiainen, Samuli; Palviainen, Marjo; Lehtonen, Aleksi

    2016-04-01

    the stand growth, nutrient availability, and CO2 efflux. Potassium was the main limiting factor for the forest growth. This indicates that management aiming at decreasing heterotrophic CO2 efflux by raising the ground water table will decrease the forest growth. From the C balance perspective the growth rate of the tree stand becomes essential. Modelling approach enables a search for an optimal management schedule for producing timber in situation when there is a price given for release of C. Ditch network maintenance by ditch cleaning becomes profitable if: i) the initial drainage is very poor, ii) the availability of the critical nutrient is sufficient, iii) during prolonged rainy conditions, and iv) the tree stand is Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) dominated and v) in a phase where most of the extra yield is allocated into sawlogs. The simulator and its holistic approach has been successfully implemented in both tropical pulpwood plantations in Sumatra, Indonesia and in Finnish boreal forests.

  8. Modelling the water balance of irrigated fields in tropical floodplain soils using Hydrus-1D

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beyene, Abebech; Frankl, Amaury; Verhoest, Niko E. C.; Tilahun, Seifu; Alamirew, Tena; Adgo, Enyew; Nyssen, Jan

    2017-04-01

    Accurate estimation of evaporation, transpiration and deep percolation is crucial in irrigated agriculture and the sustainable management of water resources. Here, the Hydrus-1D process-based numerical model was used to estimate the actual transpiration, soil evaporation and deep percolation from irrigated fields of floodplain soils. Field experiments were conducted from Dec 2015 to May 2016 in a small irrigation scheme (50 ha) called 'Shina' located in the Lake Tana floodplains of Ethiopia. Six experimental plots (three for onion and three for maize) were selected along a topographic transect to account for soil and groundwater variability. Irrigation amount (400 to 550 mm during the growing period) was measured using V-notches installed at each plot boundary and daily groundwater levels were measured manually from piezometers. There was no surface runoff observed in the growing period and rainfall was measured using a manual rain gauge. All daily weather data required for the evapotranspiration calculation using Pen Man Monteith equation were collected from a nearby metrological station. The soil profiles were described for each field to include the vertical soil heterogeneity in the soil water balance simulations. The soil texture, organic matter, bulk density, field capacity, wilting point and saturated moisture content were measured for all the soil horizons. Soil moisture monitoring at 30 and 60 cm depths was performed. The soil hydraulic parameters for each horizon was estimated using KNN pedotransfer functions for tropical soils and were effectively fitted using the RETC program (R2= 0.98±0.011) for initial prediction. A local sensitivity analysis was performed to select and optimize the most important hydraulic parameters for soil water flow in the unsaturated zone. The most sensitive parameters were saturated hydraulic conductivity (Ks), saturated moisture content (θs) and pore size distribution (n). Inverse modelling using Hydrus-1D further optimized

  9. MODELLING, SIMULATING AND OPTIMIZING BOILERS

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Kim; Condra, Thomas Joseph; Houbak, Niels

    2004-01-01

    on the boiler) have been dened. Furthermore a number of constraints related to: minimum and maximum boiler load gradient, minimum boiler size, Shrinking and Swelling and Steam Space Load have been dened. For dening the constraints related to the required boiler volume a dynamic model for simulating the boiler...... size. The model has been formulated with a specied building-up of the pressure during the start-up of the plant, i.e. the steam production during start-up of the boiler is output from the model. The steam outputs together with requirements with respect to steam space load have been utilized to dene...... of the boiler is (with an acceptable accuracy) proportional with the volume of the boiler. For the dynamic operation capability a cost function penalizing limited dynamic operation capability and vise-versa has been dened. The main idea is that it by mean of the parameters in this function is possible to t its...

  10. The phenology of leaf quality and its within-canopy variation is essential for accurate modeling of photosynthesis in tropical evergreen forests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Jin; Serbin, Shawn P; Xu, Xiangtao; Albert, Loren P; Chen, Min; Meng, Ran; Saleska, Scott R; Rogers, Alistair

    2017-04-18

    Leaf quantity (i.e., canopy leaf area index, LAI), quality (i.e., per-area photosynthetic capacity), and longevity all influence the photosynthetic seasonality of tropical evergreen forests. However, these components of tropical leaf phenology are poorly represented in most terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs). Here, we explored alternative options for the representation of leaf phenology effects in TBMs that employ the Farquahar, von Caemmerer & Berry (FvCB) representation of CO2 assimilation. We developed a two-fraction leaf (sun and shade), two-layer canopy (upper and lower) photosynthesis model to evaluate different modeling approaches and assessed three components of phenological variations (i.e., leaf quantity, quality, and within-canopy variation in leaf longevity). Our model was driven by the prescribed seasonality of leaf quantity and quality derived from ground-based measurements within an Amazonian evergreen forest. Modeled photosynthetic seasonality was not sensitive to leaf quantity, but was highly sensitive to leaf quality and its vertical distribution within the canopy, with markedly more sensitivity to upper canopy leaf quality. This is because light absorption in tropical canopies is near maximal for the entire year, implying that seasonal changes in LAI have little impact on total canopy light absorption; and because leaf quality has a greater effect on photosynthesis of sunlit leaves than light limited, shade leaves and sunlit foliage are more abundant in the upper canopy. Our two-fraction leaf, two-layer canopy model, which accounted for all three phenological components, was able to simulate photosynthetic seasonality, explaining ~90% of the average seasonal variation in eddy covariance-derived CO2 assimilation. This work identifies a parsimonious approach for representing tropical evergreen forest photosynthetic seasonality in TBMs that utilize the FvCB model of CO2 assimilation and highlights the importance of incorporating more realistic

  11. A parabolic model of drag coefficient for storm surge simulation in the South China Sea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Shiqiu; Li, Yineng

    2015-10-26

    Drag coefficient (Cd) is an essential metric in the calculation of momentum exchange over the air-sea interface and thus has large impacts on the simulation or forecast of the upper ocean state associated with sea surface winds such as storm surges. Generally, Cd is a function of wind speed. However, the exact relationship between Cd and wind speed is still in dispute, and the widely-used formula that is a linear function of wind speed in an ocean model could lead to large bias at high wind speed. Here we establish a parabolic model of Cd based on storm surge observations and simulation in the South China Sea (SCS) through a number of tropical cyclone cases. Simulation of storm surges for independent Tropical cyclones (TCs) cases indicates that the new parabolic model of Cd outperforms traditional linear models.

  12. Sampling errors for satellite-derived tropical rainfall - Monte Carlo study using a space-time stochastic model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bell, Thomas L.; Abdullah, A.; Martin, Russell L.; North, Gerald R.

    1990-01-01

    Estimates of monthly average rainfall based on satellite observations from a low earth orbit will differ from the true monthly average because the satellite observes a given area only intermittently. This sampling error inherent in satellite monitoring of rainfall would occur even if the satellite instruments could measure rainfall perfectly. The size of this error is estimated for a satellite system being studied at NASA, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). First, the statistical description of rainfall on scales from 1 to 1000 km is examined in detail, based on rainfall data from the Global Atmospheric Research Project Atlantic Tropical Experiment (GATE). A TRMM-like satellite is flown over a two-dimensional time-evolving simulation of rainfall using a stochastic model with statistics tuned to agree with GATE statistics. The distribution of sampling errors found from many months of simulated observations is found to be nearly normal, even though the distribution of area-averaged rainfall is far from normal. For a range of orbits likely to be employed in TRMM, sampling error is found to be less than 10 percent of the mean for rainfall averaged over a 500 x 500 sq km area.

  13. Simulated annealing model of acupuncture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shang, Charles; Szu, Harold

    2015-05-01

    The growth control singularity model suggests that acupuncture points (acupoints) originate from organizers in embryogenesis. Organizers are singular points in growth control. Acupuncture can cause perturbation of a system with effects similar to simulated annealing. In clinical trial, the goal of a treatment is to relieve certain disorder which corresponds to reaching certain local optimum in simulated annealing. The self-organizing effect of the system is limited and related to the person's general health and age. Perturbation at acupoints can lead a stronger local excitation (analogous to higher annealing temperature) compared to perturbation at non-singular points (placebo control points). Such difference diminishes as the number of perturbed points increases due to the wider distribution of the limited self-organizing activity. This model explains the following facts from systematic reviews of acupuncture trials: 1. Properly chosen single acupoint treatment for certain disorder can lead to highly repeatable efficacy above placebo 2. When multiple acupoints are used, the result can be highly repeatable if the patients are relatively healthy and young but are usually mixed if the patients are old, frail and have multiple disorders at the same time as the number of local optima or comorbidities increases. 3. As number of acupoints used increases, the efficacy difference between sham and real acupuncture often diminishes. It predicted that the efficacy of acupuncture is negatively correlated to the disease chronicity, severity and patient's age. This is the first biological - physical model of acupuncture which can predict and guide clinical acupuncture research.

  14. Multi-model ensemble forecasting of North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villarini, Gabriele; Luitel, Beda; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Ghosh, Joyee

    2016-09-01

    North Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) and hurricanes are responsible for a large number of fatalities and economic damage. Skillful seasonal predictions of the North Atlantic TC activity can provide basic information critical to our improved preparedness. This study focuses on the development of statistical-dynamical seasonal forecasting systems for different quantities related to the frequency and intensity of North Atlantic TCs. These models use only tropical Atlantic and tropical mean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) to describe the variability exhibited by the observational records because they reflect the importance of both local and non-local effects on the genesis and development of TCs in the North Atlantic basin. A set of retrospective forecasts of SSTs by six experimental seasonal-to-interannual prediction systems from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble are used as covariates. The retrospective forecasts are performed over the period 1982-2015. The skill of these statistical-dynamical models is quantified for different quantities (basin-wide number of tropical storms and hurricanes, power dissipation index and accumulated cyclone energy) for forecasts initialized as early as November of the year prior to the season to forecast. The results of this work show that it is possible to obtain skillful retrospective forecasts of North Atlantic TC activity with a long lead time. Moreover, probabilistic forecasts of North Atlantic TC activity for the 2016 season are provided.

  15. Impact of deep convection in the tropical tropopause layer in West Africa: in-situ observations and mesoscale modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Fierli

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available We present the analysis of the impact of convection on the composition of the tropical tropopause layer region (TTL in West-Africa during the AMMA-SCOUT campaign. Geophysica M55 aircraft observations of water vapor, ozone, aerosol and CO2 show perturbed values at altitudes ranging from 14 km to 17 km (above the main convective outflow and satellite data indicates that air detrainment is likely originated from convective cloud east of the flight. Simulations of the BOLAM mesoscale model, nudged with infrared radiance temperatures, are used to estimate the convective impact in the upper troposphere and to assess the fraction of air processed by convection. The analysis shows that BOLAM correctly reproduces the location and the vertical structure of convective outflow. Model-aided analysis indicates that in the outflow of a large convective system, deep convection can largely modify chemical composition and aerosol distribution up to the tropical tropopause. Model analysis also shows that, on average, deep convection occurring in the entire Sahelian transect (up to 2000 km E of the measurement area has a non negligible role in determining TTL composition.

  16. Assessing impacts of PBL and surface layer schemes in simulating the surface-atmosphere interactions and precipitation over the tropical ocean using observations from AMIE/DYNAMO

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Qian, Yun; Yan, Huiping; Berg, Larry K.; Hagos, Samson M.; Feng, Zhe; Yang, Ben; Huang, Maoyi

    2016-11-01

    Accuracy of turbulence parameterization in representing Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) processes in climate models is critical for predicting the initiation and development of clouds, air quality issues, and underlying surface-atmosphere-cloud interactions. In this study, we 1) evaluate WRF model-simulated spatial patterns of precipitation and surface fluxes, as well as vertical profiles of potential temperature, humidity, moist static energy and moisture tendency terms as simulated by WRF at various spatial resolutions and with PBL, surface layer and shallow convection schemes against measurements, 2) identify model biases by examining the moisture tendency terms contributed by PBL and convection processes through nudging experiments, and 3) evaluate the dependence of modeled surface latent heat (LH) fluxes onPBL and surface layer schemes over the tropical ocean. The results show that PBL and surface parameterizations have surprisingly large impacts on precipitation, convection initiation and surface moisture fluxes over tropical oceans. All of the parameterizations tested tend to overpredict moisture in PBL and free atmosphere, and consequently result in larger moist static energy and precipitation. Moisture nudging tends to suppress the initiation of convection and reduces the excess precipitation. The reduction in precipitation bias in turn reduces the surface wind and LH flux biases, which suggests that the model drifts at least partly because of a positive feedback between precipitation and surface fluxes. The updated shallow convection scheme KF-CuP tends to suppress the initiation and development of deep convection, consequently decreasing precipitation. The Eta surface layer scheme predicts more reasonable LH fluxes and the LH-Wind Speed relationship than the MM5 scheme, especially when coupled with the MYJ scheme. By examining various parameterization schemes in WRF, we identify sources of biases and weaknesses of current PBL, surface layer and shallow

  17. Uterine Contraction Modeling and Simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Miao; Belfore, Lee A.; Shen, Yuzhong; Scerbo, Mark W.

    2010-01-01

    Building a training system for medical personnel to properly interpret fetal heart rate tracing requires developing accurate models that can relate various signal patterns to certain pathologies. In addition to modeling the fetal heart rate signal itself, the change of uterine pressure that bears strong relation to fetal heart rate and provides indications of maternal and fetal status should also be considered. In this work, we have developed a group of parametric models to simulate uterine contractions during labor and delivery. Through analysis of real patient records, we propose to model uterine contraction signals by three major components: regular contractions, impulsive noise caused by fetal movements, and low amplitude noise invoked by maternal breathing and measuring apparatus. The regular contractions are modeled by an asymmetric generalized Gaussian function and least squares estimation is used to compute the parameter values of the asymmetric generalized Gaussian function based on uterine contractions of real patients. Regular contractions are detected based on thresholding and derivative analysis of uterine contractions. Impulsive noise caused by fetal movements and low amplitude noise by maternal breathing and measuring apparatus are modeled by rational polynomial functions and Perlin noise, respectively. Experiment results show the synthesized uterine contractions can mimic the real uterine contractions realistically, demonstrating the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.

  18. The transparency, reliability and utility of tropical rainforest land-use and land-cover change models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosa, Isabel M D; Ahmed, Sadia E; Ewers, Robert M

    2014-06-01

    Land-use and land-cover (LULC) change is one of the largest drivers of biodiversity loss and carbon emissions globally. We use the tropical rainforests of the Amazon, the Congo basin and South-East Asia as a case study to investigate spatial predictive models of LULC change. Current predictions differ in their modelling approaches, are highly variable and often poorly validated. We carried out a quantitative review of 48 modelling methodologies, considering model spatio-temporal scales, inputs, calibration and validation methods. In addition, we requested model outputs from each of the models reviewed and carried out a quantitative assessment of model performance for tropical LULC predictions in the Brazilian Amazon. We highlight existing shortfalls in the discipline and uncover three key points that need addressing to improve the transparency, reliability and utility of tropical LULC change models: (1) a lack of openness with regard to describing and making available the model inputs and model code; (2) the difficulties of conducting appropriate model validations; and (3) the difficulty that users of tropical LULC models face in obtaining the model predictions to help inform their own analyses and policy decisions. We further draw comparisons between tropical LULC change models in the tropics and the modelling approaches and paradigms in other disciplines, and suggest that recent changes in the climate change and species distribution modelling communities may provide a pathway that tropical LULC change modellers may emulate to further improve the discipline. Climate change models have exerted considerable influence over public perceptions of climate change and now impact policy decisions at all political levels. We suggest that tropical LULC change models have an equally high potential to influence public opinion and impact the development of land-use policies based on plausible future scenarios, but, to do that reliably may require further improvements in the

  19. Simulation of tropical tropospheric ozone variation from 1982 to 2010: The meteorological impact of two types of ENSO event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hou, Xuewei; Zhu, Bin; Fei, Dongdong; Zhu, Xiaoxin; Kang, Hanqing; Wang, Dongdong

    2016-08-01

    The effects of two types of ENSO events on tropical ozone (O3) variations from 1982 to 2010, and the mechanisms underlying these effects, were analyzed using observations and model simulations. Tropospheric column O3 anomalies (TCOA) during canonical El Niño were different from El Niño Modoki. Absolute TCOA values are larger during canonical El Niño than during El Niño Modoki in most regions. La Niña events were not separated into the different types because of their similarity in terms of sea surface temperature patterns. TCOA in La Niña showed a reversed dipole from canonical El Niño. During canonical El Niño, anomalous downward motion together with suppressed convection weakened O3 outflow from the troposphere, causing an increase in tropospheric O3 over western Pacific. Over central and eastern Pacific, decreased O3 concentrations resulted primarily from a change in net chemical production of O3. The change in net O3 chemical production relates to increased levels of HOx under wetter condition. During El Niño Modoki, transport and chemical fluxes were similar but weaker than during canonical El Niño. During La Niña, O3 anomalies and transport fluxes were the opposite of those during the El Niño Modoki. Stratospheric O3 played a key role in the development of O3 anomaly above 250 hPa during ENSO events, contributing >30% to the O3 anomalies. The change in free tropospheric O3 affected the O3 anomaly from 850 hPa to 200 hPa (60% of O3 anomaly). The contribution of O3 from planetary boundary layer was concentrated at the surface, with a contribution of <15%.

  20. Assessing human impact on droughts in a tropical Vietnamese catchment using a combined modelling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nauditt, Alexandra; Birkel, Christian; Ribbe, Lars; Tran Van, Tra; Viet, Trinh Quoc; Firoz, Abm; Fink, Manfred

    2015-04-01

    Historical drought frequency, drought risk and types are still poorly investigated in tropical regions and particularly in South East Asia. However, evolving drought periods during the dry season severely impact on socio economic factors such as livelihood (irrigated rice production), hydropower generation and urban water supply in such regions as in the VuGiaThuBon river basin (10,350 km²) in Central Vietnam. Besides the increasing frequency of heat waves and prolonged dry periods without rainfall, hydropower development and over-exploitation of water resources due to demographic and socioeconomic development are the main causes for drought-related disasters and subsequent salt water intrusion. Precipitation and runoff time series from 1982 to 2009 were used to assess drought severity and typology before hydropower development started in 2010. We applied different rainfall-runoff modelling approaches of increasing complexity (HBV light, J2000 and Mike NAM) as well as meteorological and hydrological drought indices such as the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and its runoff homologue (SRI). In the scope of the BMBF funded research project "Land use and Climate Change interactions (LUCCi)" (www.lucci-vietnam.info), the impacts of the human-induced hydrological alterations on drought risk were quantified by integrating the distributed physically-based hydrological model J2000 with the reservoir operation tool HEC ResSim and the River basin model Mike Basin to simulate the runoff to the coastal system. The salt water intrusion behavior in the flat coastal area was represented by the hydrodynamic Mike 11 model relating low flow thresholds to salt intrusion. The different discharge simulations before and after the reservoir construction were compared and evaluated regarding their relevance for the drought severity being dominated either by meteorological dry spells or hydrological alterations. Results show a clear impact of the hydropower reservoir and resulting

  1. Carbon budget of tropical forests in Southeast Asia and the effects of deforestation: an approach using a process-based model and field measurements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Adachi

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available More reliable estimates of the carbon (C stock within forest ecosystems and C emission induced by deforestation are urgently needed to mitigate the effects of emissions on climate change. A process-based terrestrial biogeochemical model (VISIT was applied to tropical primary forests of two types (a seasonal dry forest in Thailand and a rainforest in Malaysia and one agro-forest (an oil palm plantation in Malaysia to estimate the C budget of tropical ecosystems in Southeast Asia, including the impacts of land-use conversion. The observed aboveground biomass in the seasonal dry tropical forest in Thailand (226.3 t C ha−1 and the rainforest in Malaysia (201.5 t C ha−1 indicate that tropical forests of Southeast Asia are among the most C-abundant ecosystems in the world. The model simulation results in rainforests were consistent with field data, except for the NEP, however, the VISIT model tended to underestimate C budget and stock in the seasonal dry tropical forest. The gross primary production (GPP based on field observations ranged from 32.0 to 39.6 t C ha−1 yr−1 in the two primary forests, whereas the model slightly underestimated GPP (26.5–34.5 t C ha−1 yr−1. The VISIT model appropriately captured the impacts of disturbances such as deforestation and land-use conversions on the C budget. Results of sensitivity analysis showed that the proportion of remaining residual debris was a key parameter determining the soil C budget after the deforestation event. According to the model simulation, the total C stock (total biomass and soil C of the oil palm plantation was about 35% of the rainforest's C stock at 30 yr following initiation of the plantation. However, there were few field data of C budget and stock, especially in oil palm plantation. The C budget of each ecosystem must be evaluated over the long term using both the model simulations and observations to

  2. Carbon budget of tropical forests in Southeast Asia and the effects of deforestation: an approach using a process-based model and field measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adachi, M.; Ito, A.; Ishida, A.; Kadir, W. R.; Ladpala, P.; Yamagata, Y.

    2011-09-01

    More reliable estimates of the carbon (C) stock within forest ecosystems and C emission induced by deforestation are urgently needed to mitigate the effects of emissions on climate change. A process-based terrestrial biogeochemical model (VISIT) was applied to tropical primary forests of two types (a seasonal dry forest in Thailand and a rainforest in Malaysia) and one agro-forest (an oil palm plantation in Malaysia) to estimate the C budget of tropical ecosystems in Southeast Asia, including the impacts of land-use conversion. The observed aboveground biomass in the seasonal dry tropical forest in Thailand (226.3 t C ha-1) and the rainforest in Malaysia (201.5 t C ha-1) indicate that tropical forests of Southeast Asia are among the most C-abundant ecosystems in the world. The model simulation results in rainforests were consistent with field data, except for the NEP, however, the VISIT model tended to underestimate C budget and stock in the seasonal dry tropical forest. The gross primary production (GPP) based on field observations ranged from 32.0 to 39.6 t C ha-1 yr-1 in the two primary forests, whereas the model slightly underestimated GPP (26.5-34.5 t C ha-1 yr-1). The VISIT model appropriately captured the impacts of disturbances such as deforestation and land-use conversions on the C budget. Results of sensitivity analysis showed that the proportion of remaining residual debris was a key parameter determining the soil C budget after the deforestation event. According to the model simulation, the total C stock (total biomass and soil C) of the oil palm plantation was about 35% of the rainforest's C stock at 30 yr following initiation of the plantation. However, there were few field data of C budget and stock, especially in oil palm plantation. The C budget of each ecosystem must be evaluated over the long term using both the model simulations and observations to understand the effects of climate and land-use conversion on C budgets in tropical forest

  3. Applications of Joint Tactical Simulation Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    1997-12-01

    NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL Monterey, California THESIS APPLICATIONS OF JOINT TACTICAL SIMULATION MODELING by Steve VanLandingham December 1997...SUBTITLE APPLICATIONS OF JOINT TACTICAL SIMULATION MODELING 5. FUNDING NUMBERS 6. AUTHOR(S) VanLandingham, Steve 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S...release; distribution is unlimited. APPLICATIONS OF JOINT TACTICAL SIMULATION MODELING Steve VanLandingham Lieutenant, United States Navy B.S

  4. Benchmark simulation models, quo vadis?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jeppsson, U.; Alex, J; Batstone, D. J.

    2013-01-01

    As the work of the IWA Task Group on Benchmarking of Control Strategies for wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) is coming to an end, it is essential to disseminate the knowledge gained. For this reason, all authors of the IWA Scientific and Technical Report on benchmarking have come together to p...... already being done within the context of the benchmarking simulation models (BSMs) or applicable work in the wider literature. Of key importance is increasing capability, usability and transparency of the BSM package while avoiding unnecessary complexity. © IWA Publishing 2013....... and spatial extension, process modifications within the WWTP, the realism of models, control strategy extensions and the potential for new evaluation tools within the existing benchmark system. We find that there are major opportunities for application within all of these areas, either from existing work...

  5. SWEEPOP a simulation model for Target Simulation Mode minesweeping

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Keus, H.E.; Beckers, A.L.D.; Cleophas, P.L.H.

    2005-01-01

    SWEEPOP is a flexible model that simulates the physical interaction between objects in a maritime underwater environment. The model was built to analyse the deployment and the performance of a Target Simulation Mode (TSM) minesweeping system for the Royal Netherlands Navy (RNLN) and to support its p

  6. Interannual variability of the boreal summer tropical UTLS in observations and CCMVal-2 simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kunze, Markus; Braesicke, Peter; Langematz, Ulrike; Stiller, Gabriele

    2016-07-01

    During boreal summer the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere (UTLS) in the Northern Hemisphere shows a distinct maximum in water vapour (H2O) mixing ratios and a coincident minimum in ozone (O3) mixing ratios, both confined within the Asian monsoon anticyclone (AMA). This well-known feature has been related to transport processes emerging above the convective systems during the Asian summer monsoon (ASM), further modified by the dynamics of the AMA. We compare the ability of chemistry-climate models (CCMs) to reproduce the climatological characteristics and variability of H2O, O3, and temperature in the UTLS during the boreal summer with MIPAS satellite observations and ERA-Interim reanalyses. By using a multiple linear regression model the main driving factors, the strength of the ASM, the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), are separated. The regression patterns related to ENSO show a coherent, zonally asymmetric signal for temperatures and H2O mixing ratios for ERA-Interim and the CCMs and suggest a weakening of the ASM during ENSO warm events. The QBO modulation of the lower-stratospheric temperature near the Equator is well represented as a zonally symmetric pattern in the CCMs. Changes in H2O and O3 mixing ratios are consistent with the QBO-induced temperature and circulation anomalies but less zonally symmetric than the temperature pattern. Regarding the ASM, the results of the regression analysis show for ERA-Interim and the CCMs enhanced H2O and reduced O3 mixing ratios within the AMA for stronger ASM seasons. The CCM results can further confirm earlier studies which emphasize the importance of the Tibetan Plateau/southern slope of the Himalayas as the main source region for H2O in the AMA. The results suggest that H2O is transported towards higher latitudes at the north-eastern edge of the AMA rather than towards low equatorial latitudes to be fed into the tropical pipe.

  7. Multiple Equilibria in a Single-Column Model of the Tropical Atmosphere

    CERN Document Server

    Sobel, Adam H; Bacmeister, Julio T

    2007-01-01

    A single-column model run under the weak temperature gradient approximation, a parameterization of large-scale dynamics appropriate for the tropical atmosphere, is shown to have multiple stable equilibria. Under conditions permitting persistent deep convection, the model has a statistically steady state in which such convection occurs, as well as an extremely dry state in which convection does not occur. Which state is reached depends on the initial moisture profile.

  8. An effort to improve track and intensity prediction of tropical cyclones through vortex initialization in NCUM-global model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Vivek; Routray, A.; Mallick, Swapan; George, John P.; Rajagopal, E. N.

    2016-05-01

    Tropical cyclones (TCs) have strong impact on socio-economic conditions of the countries like India, Bangladesh and Myanmar owing to its awful devastating power. This brings in the need of precise forecasting system to predict the tracks and intensities of TCs accurately well in advance. However, it has been a great challenge for major operational meteorological centers over the years. Genesis of TCs over data sparse warm Tropical Ocean adds more difficulty to this. Weak and misplaced vortices at initial time are one of the prime sources of track and intensity errors in the Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models. Many previous studies have reported the forecast skill of track and intensity of TC improved due to the assimilation of satellite data along with vortex initialization (VI). Keeping this in mind, an attempt has been made to investigate the impact of vortex initialization for simulation of TC using UK-Met office global model, operational at NCMRWF (NCUM). This assessment is carried out by taking the case of a extremely severe cyclonic storm "Chapala" that occurred over Arabian Sea (AS) from 28th October to 3rd November 2015. Two numerical experiments viz. Vort-GTS (Assimilation of GTS observations with VI) and Vort-RAD (Same as Vort-GTS with assimilation of satellite data) are carried out. This vortex initialization study in NCUM model is first of its type over North Indian Ocean (NIO). The model simulation of TC is carried out with five different initial conditions through 24 hour cycles for both the experiments. The results indicate that the vortex initialization with assimilation of satellite data has a positive impact on the track and intensity forecast, landfall time and position error of the TCs.

  9. Improving predictions of tropical forest response to climate change through integration of field studies and ecosystem modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Xiaohui; Uriarte, María; González, Grizelle; Reed, Sasha C.; Thompson, J.; Zimmerman, Jess K.; Murphy, Lora

    2017-01-01

    Tropical forests play a critical role in carbon and water cycles at a global scale. Rapid climate change is anticipated in tropical regions over the coming decades and, under a warmer and drier climate, tropical forests are likely to be net sources of carbon rather than sinks. However, our understanding of tropical forest response and feedback to climate change is very limited. Efforts to model climate change impacts on carbon fluxes in tropical forests have not reached a consensus. Here we use the Ecosystem Demography model (ED2) to predict carbon fluxes of a Puerto Rican tropical forest under realistic climate change scenarios. We parameterized ED2 with species-specific tree physiological data using the Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer workflow and projected the fate of this ecosystem under five future climate scenarios. The model successfully captured inter-annual variability in the dynamics of this tropical forest. Model predictions closely followed observed values across a wide range of metrics including above-ground biomass, tree diameter growth, tree size class distributions, and leaf area index. Under a future warming and drying climate scenario, the model predicted reductions in carbon storage and tree growth, together with large shifts in forest community composition and structure. Such rapid changes in climate led the forest to transition from a sink to a source of carbon. Growth respiration and root allocation parameters were responsible for the highest fraction of predictive uncertainty in modeled biomass, highlighting the need to target these processes in future data collection. Our study is the first effort to rely on Bayesian model calibration and synthesis to elucidate the key physiological parameters that drive uncertainty in tropical forests responses to climatic change. We propose a new path forward for model-data synthesis that can substantially reduce uncertainty in our ability to model tropical forest responses to future climate.

  10. Interannual Variability of Tropical Precipitation: How Well Do Climate Models Agree With Current Satellite Estimates?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robertson, Franklin R.; Marshall, Susan; Roads, John; Oglesby, Robert J.; Fitzjarrald, Dan; Goodman, H. Michael (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    Since the beginning of the World Climate Research Program's Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) satellite remote sensing of precipitation has made dramatic improvements, particularly for tropical regions. Data from microwave and infrared sensors now form the most critical input to precipitation data sets and can be calibrated with surface gauges to so that the strengths of each data source can be maximized in some statistically optimal sense. Recent availability of the TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) has further aided in narrowing uncertainties in rainfall over die tropics and subtropics. Although climate modeling efforts have long relied on space-based precipitation estimates for validation, we now are in a position to make more quantitative assessments of model performance, particularly in tropical regions. An integration of the CCM3 using observed SSTs as a lower boundary condition is used to examine how well this model responds to ENSO forcing in terms of anomalous precipitation. An integration of the NCEP spectral model used for the Reanalysis-H effort is also examined. This integration is run with specified SSTs, but with no data assimilation. Our analysis focuses on two aspects of inter-annual variability. First are the spatial anomalies that are indicative of dislocations in Hadley and Walker circulations. Second, we consider the ability of models to replicate observed increases in oceanic precipitation that are noted in satellite observations for large ENSO events. Finally, we consider a slab ocean version of the CCM3 model with prescribed ocean beat transports that mimic upwelling anomalies, but which still allows the surface energy balance to be predicted. This less restrictive experiment is used to understand why model experiments with specified SSTs seem to have noticeably less interannual variability in precipitation than do the satellite observations.

  11. Techniques and Simulation Models in Risk Management

    OpenAIRE

    Mirela GHEORGHE

    2012-01-01

    In the present paper, the scientific approach of the research starts from the theoretical framework of the simulation concept and then continues in the setting of the practical reality, thus providing simulation models for a broad range of inherent risks specific to any organization and simulation of those models, using the informatics instrument @Risk (Palisade). The reason behind this research lies in the need for simulation models that will allow the person in charge with decision taking i...

  12. Dynamical system analysis of a low-order tropical cyclone model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daria Schönemann

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Tropical cyclone dynamics is investigated by means of a conceptual box model. The tropical cyclone (TC is divided into three regions, the eye, eyewall and ambient region. The model forms a low-order dynamical system of three ordinary differential equations. These are based on entropy budget equations comprising processes of surface enthalpy transfer, entropy advection, convection and radiative cooling. For tropical ocean parameter settings, the system possesses four non-trivial steady state solutions when the sea surface temperature (SST is above a critical value. Two steady states are unstable while the two remaining states are stable. Bifurcation diagrams provide an explanation why only finite-amplitude perturbations above a critical SST can transform into TCs. Besides SST, relative humidity of the ambient region forms an important model parameter. The surfaces that describe equilibria as a function of SST and relative humidity reveal a cusp-catastrophe where the two non-trivial equilibria split into four. Within the model regime of four equilibria, cyclogenesis becomes very unlikely due to the repelling and attracting effects of the two additional equilibria. The results are in qualitative agreement with observations and evince the relevance of the simple model approach to the dynamics of TC formation and its maximum potential intensity.

  13. Intercomparison of temperature trends in IPCC CMIP5 simulations with observations, reanalyses and CMIP3 models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Xu

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available On the basis of the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5 and the climate model simulations covering 1979 through 2005, the temperature trends and their uncertainties have been examined to note the similarities or differences compared to the radiosonde observations, reanalyses and the third Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 simulations. The results show noticeable discrepancies for the estimated temperature trends in the four data groups (radiosonde, reanalysis, CMIP3 and CMIP5, although similarities can be observed. Compared to the CMIP3 model simulations, the simulations in some of the CMIP5 models were improved. The CMIP5 models displayed a negative temperature trend in the stratosphere closer to the strong negative trend seen in the observations. However, the positive tropospheric trend in the tropics is overestimated by the CMIP5 models relative to CMIP3 models. While some of the models produce temperature trend patterns more highly correlated with the observed patterns in CMIP5, the other models (such as CCSM4 and IPSL_CM5A-LR exhibit the reverse tendency. The CMIP5 temperature trend uncertainty was significantly reduced in most areas, especially in the Arctic and Antarctic stratosphere, compared to the CMIP3 simulations. Similar to the CMIP3, the CMIP5 simulations overestimated the tropospheric warming in the tropics and Southern Hemisphere and underestimated the stratospheric cooling. The crossover point where tropospheric warming changes into stratospheric cooling occurred near 100 hPa in the tropics, which is higher than in the radiosonde and reanalysis data. The result is likely related to the overestimation of convective activity over the tropical areas in both the CMIP3 and CMIP5 models. Generally, for the temperature trend estimates associated with the numerical models including the reanalyses and global climate models, the uncertainty in the stratosphere is much larger than that in the troposphere, and the

  14. Bridging experiments, models and simulations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Carusi, Annamaria; Burrage, Kevin; Rodríguez, Blanca

    2012-01-01

    Computational models in physiology often integrate functional and structural information from a large range of spatiotemporal scales from the ionic to the whole organ level. Their sophistication raises both expectations and skepticism concerning how computational methods can improve our understan...... that contributes to defining the specific aspects of cardiac electrophysiology the MSE system targets, rather than being only an external test, and that this is driven by advances in experimental and computational methods and the combination of both....... of biovariability; 2) testing and developing robust techniques and tools as a prerequisite to conducting physiological investigations; 3) defining and adopting standards to facilitate the interoperability of experiments, models, and simulations; 4) and understanding physiological validation as an iterative process...... understanding of living organisms and also how they can reduce, replace, and refine animal experiments. A fundamental requirement to fulfill these expectations and achieve the full potential of computational physiology is a clear understanding of what models represent and how they can be validated. The present...

  15. Simulated coal spill causes mortality and growth inhibition in tropical marine organisms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berry, Kathryn L. E.; Hoogenboom, Mia O.; Flores, Florita; Negri, Andrew P.

    2016-05-01

    Coal is a principal fossil fuel driving economic and social development, and increases in global coal shipments have paralleled expansion of the industry. To identify the potential harm associated with chronic marine coal contamination, three taxa abundant in tropical marine ecosystems (the coral Acropora tenuis, the reef fish Acanthochromis polyacanthus and the seagrass Halodule uninervis) were exposed to five concentrations (0–275 mg coal l‑1) of suspended coal dust (cause considerable lethal effects on corals, and reductions in seagrass and fish growth rates. Coral survivorship and seagrass growth rates were inversely related to increasing coal concentrations (≥38 mg coal l‑1) and effects increased between 14 and 28 d, whereas fish growth rates were similarly depressed at all coal concentrations tested. This investigation provides novel insights into direct coal impacts on key tropical taxa for application in the assessment of risks posed by increasing coal shipments in globally threatened marine ecosystems.

  16. Constant diurnal temperature regime alters the impact of simulated climate warming on a tropical pseudoscorpion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeh, Jeanne A.; Bonilla, Melvin M.; Su, Eleanor J.; Padua, Michael V.; Anderson, Rachel V.; Zeh, David W.

    2014-01-01

    Recent theory suggests that global warming may be catastrophic for tropical ectotherms. Although most studies addressing temperature effects in ectotherms utilize constant temperatures, Jensen's inequality and thermal stress considerations predict that this approach will underestimate warming effects on species experiencing daily temperature fluctuations in nature. Here, we tested this prediction in a neotropical pseudoscorpion. Nymphs were reared in control and high-temperature treatments under a constant daily temperature regime, and results compared to a companion fluctuating-temperature study. At constant temperature, pseudoscorpions outperformed their fluctuating-temperature counterparts. Individuals were larger, developed faster, and males produced more sperm, and females more embryos. The greatest impact of temperature regime involved short-term, adult exposure, with constant temperature mitigating high-temperature effects on reproductive traits. Our findings demonstrate the importance of realistic temperature regimes in climate warming studies, and suggest that exploitation of microhabitats that dampen temperature oscillations may be critical in avoiding extinction as tropical climates warm. PMID:24424082

  17. A Comparison Study of Tropical Pacific Ocean State Estimation: Low-Resolution Assimilation vs. High-Resolution Simulation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    FU Weiwei; ZHU Jiang; ZHOU Guangqing; WANG Huijun

    2005-01-01

    A comparison study is performed to contrast the improvements in the tropical Pacific oceanic state of a low-resolution model respectively via data assimilation and by an increase in horizontal resolution.A low resolution model (LR) (1°lat by 2°lon) and a high-resolution model (HR) (0.5°lat by 0.5°lon) are employed for the comparison. The authors perform 20-yr numerical experiments and analyze the annual mean fields of temperature and salinity. The results indicate that the low-resolution model with data assimilation behaves better than the high-resolution model in the estimation of ocean large-scale features.From 1990 to 2000, the average of HR's RMSE (root-mean-square error) relative to independent Tropical Atmosphere Ocean project (TAO) mooring data at randomly selected points is 0.97℃ compared to a RMSE of 0.56℃ for LR with temperature assimilation. Moreover, the LR with data assimilation is more frugal in computation. Although there is room to improve the high-resolution model, the low-resolution model with data assimilation may be an advisable choice in achieving a more realistic large-scale state of the ocean at the limited level of information provided by the current observational system.

  18. Mountains and Tropical Circulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naiman, Z.; Goodman, P. J.; Krasting, J. P.; Malyshev, S.; Russell, J. L.; Stouffer, R. J.

    2015-12-01

    Observed tropical convection exhibits zonal asymmetries that strongly influence spatial precipitation patterns. The drivers of changes to this zonally-asymmetric Walker circulation on decadal and longer timescales have been the focus of significant recent research. Here we use two state-of-the-art earth system models to explore the impact of earth's mountains on the Walker circulation. When all land-surface topography is removed, the Walker circulation weakens by 33-59%. There is a ~30% decrease in global, large-scale upward vertical wind velocities in the middle of the troposphere, but only minor changes in global average convective mass flux, precipitation, surface and sea-surface temperatures. The zonally symmetric Hadley circulation is also largely unchanged. Following the spatial pattern of changes to large-scale vertical wind velocities, precipitation becomes less focused over the tropics. The weakening of the Walker circulation, but not the Hadley circulation, is similar to the behavior of climate models during radiative forcing experiments: in our simulations, the weakening is associated with changes in vertical wind velocities, rather than the hydrologic cycle. These results indicate suggest that mountain heights may significantly influence the Walker circulation on geologic time scales, and observed changes in tropical precipitation over millions of years may have been forced by changes in tropical orography.

  19. Ecohydrological modeling of a tropical tidal catchment exposed to anthropogenic pressure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lorenz, Malte; Zeunert, Stephanie; Meon, Günter

    2016-04-01

    situation, meaningful results for discharge, concentration and nutrient load calibration could be achieved. A sensitivity analysis demonstrated that the water quality processes of nitrogen are dominated by terrestrial transformation processes. The developed model is able to simulate the characteristic dynamics of mineralization, which are typically observed in the humid tropics. Beside the implemented "Availability and Demand Approach", which is accounting for a temporary storage of nutrients in the microbial biomass, the implemented moisture functions are of particular importance. The consideration of sediment compartments and processes related to periphyton activity were key components in the water quality modeling of the catchment. The calibrated model was utilized to identify pollution sources and hot spots in the estuary and in the catchment. Furthermore, tracer simulations showed that the upper part of the estuary is more vulnerable to pollution then the lower part. This confirms the findings of the monitoring. In addition, predictions for water quality in response to anthropogenic changes regarding population, land use and industrial development were carried out with the coupled modeling system. Results of these scenarios are presented.

  20. Modelling the re-intensification of tropical storm Erin (2007 over Oklahoma: understanding the key role of downdraft formulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Folmer Krikken

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available This article reports on the inland re-intensification of tropical storm (TS Erin (2007. In this research, the physical processes that resulted in the re-intensification of TS Erin over Oklahoma, USA, on 19 August 2007 was determined and a sensitivity study on microphysics, planetary boundary layer and convective parameterisation schemes was performed in the mesoscale modelling system, MM5. Also, we diagnosed and explained the remarkable difference between model behaviour of the original Kain–Fritsch 1 (KF1 scheme and its revised counterpart (KF2. The numerical results showed only modest sensitivity to the selected microphysics schemes – the relatively simple ‘Simple Ice’ and the advanced Reisner-Graupel. We found a relatively high sensitivity to the selected boundary layer parameterisation. Enhanced mixing in the medium range forecast (MRF scheme leads to a relatively small convective available potential energy (CAPE, a deeper boundary layer and a lower dew point temperature, thus to a relatively stable environment. Therefore, MRF forecasts less precipitation (up to 150 mm than the local mixing scheme, ETA. Model results appeared most sensitive to the selected convection schemes, that is, Grell, KF1 and KF2. With Grell and KF1, Erin intensifies and produces intense precipitation, but its structure remains close to a mesoscale convective system (MCS or squall line rather than of the observed tropical cyclone. Both schemes also simulate the most intense precipitation too far south (100 km compared to observations. On the contrary, KF2 underestimates precipitation, but the track of the convection, the precipitation and the pressure distribution are relatively close to radar and field observations. A sensitivity study reveals that the downdraft formulation is critical to modelling TS Erin's dynamics. Within tropical cyclogenesis, the mid-level relative humidity (RH is generally very high, resulting in very small downdrafts. KF2 generates

  1. Genomics approaches to unlock the high yield potential of cassava, a tropical model plant

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shengkui ZHANG,Ping'an MA,Haiyan WANG,Cheng LU,Xin CHEN,Zhiqiang XIA,Meiling ZOU,Xinchen ZHOU,Wenquan WANG

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Cassava, a tropical food, feed and biofuel crop, has great capacity for biomass accumulation and an extraordinary efficiency in water use and mineral nutrition, which makes it highly suitable as a model plant for tropical crops. However, the understanding of the metabolism and genomics of this important crop is limited. The recent breakthroughs in the genomics of cassava, including whole-genome sequencing and transcriptome analysis, as well as advances in the biology of photosynthesis, starch biosynthesis, adaptation to drought and high temperature, and resistance to virus and bacterial diseases, are reviewed here. Many of the new developments have come from comparative analyses between a wild ancestor and existing cultivars. Finally, the current challenges and future potential of cassava as a model plant are discussed.

  2. Distributed simulation a model driven engineering approach

    CERN Document Server

    Topçu, Okan; Oğuztüzün, Halit; Yilmaz, Levent

    2016-01-01

    Backed by substantive case studies, the novel approach to software engineering for distributed simulation outlined in this text demonstrates the potent synergies between model-driven techniques, simulation, intelligent agents, and computer systems development.

  3. Multi-model ensemble analysis of Pacific and Atlantic SST variability in unperturbed climate simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zanchettin, D.; Bothe, O.; Rubino, A.; Jungclaus, J. H.

    2016-08-01

    We assess internally-generated climate variability expressed by a multi-model ensemble of unperturbed climate simulations. We focus on basin-scale annual-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) from twenty multicentennial pre-industrial control simulations contributing to the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Ensemble spatial patterns of regional modes of variability and ensemble (cross-)wavelet-based phase-frequency diagrams of corresponding paired indices summarize the ensemble characteristics of inter-basin and regional-to-global SST interactions on a broad range of timescales. Results reveal that tropical and North Pacific SSTs are a source of simulated interannual global SST variability. The North Atlantic-average SST fluctuates in rough co-phase with the global-average SST on multidecadal timescales, which makes it difficult to discern the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) signal from the global signal. The two leading modes of tropical and North Pacific SST variability converge towards co-phase in the multi-model ensemble, indicating that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) results from a combination of tropical and extra-tropical processes. No robust inter- or multi-decadal inter-basin SST interaction arises from our ensemble analysis between the Pacific and Atlantic oceans, though specific phase-locked fluctuations occur between Pacific and Atlantic modes of SST variability in individual simulations and/or periods within individual simulations. The multidecadal modulation of PDO by the AMV identified in observations appears to be a recurrent but not typical feature of ensemble-simulated internal variability. Understanding the mechanism(s) and circumstances favoring such inter-basin SST phasing and related uncertainties in their simulated representation could help constraining uncertainty in decadal climate predictions.

  4. Climate simulations for 1880-2003 with GISS modelE

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hansen, J. [NASA Goddard Inst. for Space Studies, New York, NY (United States)]|[Columbia Univ. Earth Inst., New York, NY (United States); Sato, M.; Kharecha, P.; Nazarenko, L.; Aleinov, I.; Bauer, S.; Chandler, M.; Faluvegi, G.; Jonas, J.; Lerner, J.; Perlwitz, J.; Unger, N.; Zhang, S. [Columbia Univ. Earth Inst., New York, NY (United States); Ruedy, R.; Lo, K.; Cheng, Y.; Oinas, V.; Schmunk, R.; Tausnev, N.; Yao, M. [Sigma Space Partners LLC, New York, NY (United States); Lacis, A.; Schmidt, G.A.; Del Genio, A.; Rind, D.; Romanou, A.; Shindell, D. [NASA Goddard Inst. for Space Studies, New York, NY (United States)]|[Columbia Univ., Dept. of Earth and Environmental Sciences, New York, NY (United States); Miller, R.; Hall, T. [NASA Goddard Inst. for Space Studies, New York, NY (United States)]|[Columbia Univ., Dept. of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, New York, NY (United States); Russell, G.; Canuto, V.; Kiang, N.Y. [NASA Goddard Inst. for Space Studies, New York, NY (United States); Baum, E.; Cohen, A. [Clean Air Task Force, Boston, MA (United States); Cairns, B.; Perlwitz, J. [Columbia Univ., Dept. of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, New York, NY (United States); Fleming, E.; Jackman, C.; Labow, G. [NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD (United States); Friend, A.; Kelley, M. [Lab. des Sciences du Climat et de l' Environnement, Gif-sur-Yvette (France); Koch, D. [Columbia Univ. Earth Inst., New York, NY (United States)]|[Yale Univ., Dept. of Geology, New Haven, CT (United States); Menon, S.; Novakov, T. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab., CA (United States); Stone, P. [Massachusetts Inst. of Tech., Cambridge, MA (United States); Sun, S. [NASA Goddard Inst. for Space Studies, New York, NY (United States)]|[Massachusetts Inst. of Tech., Cambridge, MA (United States); Streets, D. [Argonne National Lab., IL (United States); Thresher, D. [Columbia Univ., Dept. of Earth and Environmental Sciences, New York, NY (United States)

    2007-12-15

    We carry out climate simulations for 1880-2003 with GISS modelE driven by ten measured or estimated climate forcings. An ensemble of climate model runs is carried out for each forcing acting individually and for all forcing mechanisms acting together. We compare side-by-side simulated climate change for each forcing, all forcings, observations, unforced variability among model ensemble members, and, if available, observed variability. Discrepancies between observations and simulations with all forcings are due to model deficiencies, inaccurate or incomplete forcings, and imperfect observations. Although there are notable discrepancies between model and observations, the fidelity is sufficient to encourage use of the model for simulations of future climate change. By using a fixed well-documented model and accurately defining the 1880-2003 forcings, we aim to provide a benchmark against which the effect of improvements in the model, climate forcings, and observations can be tested. Principal model deficiencies include unrealistically weak tropical El Nino-like variability and a poor distribution of sea ice, with too much sea ice in the Northern Hemisphere and too little in the Southern Hemisphere. Greatest uncertainties in the forcings are the temporal and spatial variations of anthropogenic aerosols and their indirect effects on clouds. (orig.)

  5. Benchmark simulation models, quo vadis?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeppsson, U; Alex, J; Batstone, D J; Benedetti, L; Comas, J; Copp, J B; Corominas, L; Flores-Alsina, X; Gernaey, K V; Nopens, I; Pons, M-N; Rodríguez-Roda, I; Rosen, C; Steyer, J-P; Vanrolleghem, P A; Volcke, E I P; Vrecko, D

    2013-01-01

    As the work of the IWA Task Group on Benchmarking of Control Strategies for wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) is coming to an end, it is essential to disseminate the knowledge gained. For this reason, all authors of the IWA Scientific and Technical Report on benchmarking have come together to provide their insights, highlighting areas where knowledge may still be deficient and where new opportunities are emerging, and to propose potential avenues for future development and application of the general benchmarking framework and its associated tools. The paper focuses on the topics of temporal and spatial extension, process modifications within the WWTP, the realism of models, control strategy extensions and the potential for new evaluation tools within the existing benchmark system. We find that there are major opportunities for application within all of these areas, either from existing work already being done within the context of the benchmarking simulation models (BSMs) or applicable work in the wider literature. Of key importance is increasing capability, usability and transparency of the BSM package while avoiding unnecessary complexity.

  6. Sensitivity of a Mediterranean Tropical-Like Cyclone to Different Model Configurations and Coupling Strategies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio Ricchi

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available In November 2011, an Atlantic depression affected the Mediterranean basin, eventually evolving into a Tropical-Like Cyclone (TLC or Mediterranean Hurricane, usually designated as Medicane. In the region affected by the Medicane, mean sea level pressures down to 990 hPa, wind speeds of hurricane intensity close to the eye (around 115 km/h and intense rainfall in the prefrontal zone were reported. The intensity of this event, together with its long permanence over the sea, suggested its suitability as a paradigmatic case for investigating the sensitivity of a numerical modeling system to different configurations, air-sea interface parameterizations and coupling approaches. Toward this aim, a set of numerical experiments with different parameterization schemes and levels of coupling complexity was carried out within the Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Wave Sediment Transport System (COAWST, which allows the description of air-sea dynamics by coupling an atmospheric model (WRF, an ocean circulation model (ROMS, and a wave model (SWAN. The sensitivity to different initialization times and Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL parameterizations was firstly investigated by running a set of WRF standalone (atmospheric-only simulations. In order to better understand the effect of coupling on the TLC formation, intensification and trajectory, different configurations of atmosphere-ocean coupling were subsequently tested, eventually including the full coupling among atmosphere, ocean and waves, also changing the PBL parameterization and the formulation of the surface roughness. Results show a strong sensitivity of both the trajectory and the intensity of this TLC to the initial conditions, while the tracks and intensities provided by the coupled modeling approaches explored in this study do not introduce drastic modifications with respect to those resulting from a fine-tuned standalone atmospheric run, though they provide by definition a better physical and energetic

  7. Observing and Modelling the HighWater Level from Satellite Radar Altimetry During Tropical Cyclones

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Deng, Xiaoli; Gharineiat, Zahra; Andersen, Ole Baltazar

    2016-01-01

    This paper investigates the capability of observing tropical cyclones using satellite radar altimetry. Two representative cyclones Yasi (February 2011) and Larry (March 2006) in the northeast Australian coastal area are selected based also on available tide gauge sea level measurements. It is shown...... levels predicted by the model taken into account of both altimetry and tide-gauge data agree well with those observed at Townsville during cyclone Larry....

  8. Simulating changes in ecosystem structure and composition in response to climate change: a case study focused on tropical nitrogen-fixing trees (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medvigy, D.; Levy, J.; Xu, X.; Batterman, S. A.; Hedin, L.

    2013-12-01

    Ecosystems, by definition, involve a community of organisms. These communities generally exhibit heterogeneity in their structure and composition as a result of local variations in climate, soil, topography, disturbance history, and other factors. Climate-driven shifts in ecosystems will likely include an internal re-organization of community structure and composition and as well as the introduction of novel species. In terms of vegetation, this ecosystem heterogeneity can occur at relatively small scales, sometimes of the order of tens of meters or even less. Because this heterogeneous landscape generally has a variable and nonlinear response to environmental perturbations, it is necessary to carefully aggregate the local competitive dynamics between individual plants to the large scales of tens or hundreds of kilometers represented in climate models. Accomplishing this aggregation in a computationally efficient way has proven to be an extremely challenging task. To meet this challenge, the Ecosystem Demography 2 (ED2) model statistically characterizes a distribution of local resource environments, and then simulates the competition between individuals of different sizes and species (or functional groupings). Within this framework, it is possible to explicitly simulate the impacts of climate change on ecosystem structure and composition, including both internal re-organization and the introduction of novel species or functional groups. This presentation will include several illustrative applications of the evolution of ecosystem structure and composition under climate change. One application pertains to the role of nitrogen-fixing species in tropical forests. Will increasing CO2 concentrations increase the demand for nutrients and perhaps give a competitive edge to nitrogen-fixing species? Will potentially warmer and drier conditions make some tropical forests more water-limited, reducing the demand for nitrogen, thereby giving a competitive advantage to non

  9. Modeling, Design and Simulation of Stand-Alone Photovoltaic Power Systems with Battery Storage

    OpenAIRE

    Abd Essalam BADOUD; Mabrouk KHEMLICHE

    2013-01-01

    Stand alone renewable energy based on photovoltaic systems accompanied with battery storage system are beginning to play an important role over the world to supply power to remote areas. The objective of the study reported in this paper is to elaborate and design a bond graphs model for sizing stand-alone domestic solar photovoltaic electricity systems and simulating the performance of the systems in a tropical climate. The systems modelled consist of an array of PV modules, a lead-acid batte...

  10. Physical mechanism and numerical simulations of surface layer temperature inversion in tropical ocean

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    FAN Haimei; LI Bingrui; ZHANG Qinghua; LIU Zhiliang

    2005-01-01

    The one-dimensional Kraus-Tumer mixed layer model improved by Liu is developed to consider the effect of salinity and the equations of temperature and salinity under the mixed layer. On this basis, the processes of growth and death of surface layer temperature inversion is numerically simulated under different environmental parameters. At the same time, the physical mechanism is preliminarily discussed combining the observations at the station of TOGA-COARE 0°N, 156°E. The results indicate that temperature inversion sensitively depends on the mixed layer depth, sea surface wind speed and solar shortwave radiation, etc., and appropriately meteorological and hydrological conditions often lead to the similarly periodical occurrence of this inversion phenomenon.

  11. Structured building model reduction toward parallel simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dobbs, Justin R. [Cornell University; Hencey, Brondon M. [Cornell University

    2013-08-26

    Building energy model reduction exchanges accuracy for improved simulation speed by reducing the number of dynamical equations. Parallel computing aims to improve simulation times without loss of accuracy but is poorly utilized by contemporary simulators and is inherently limited by inter-processor communication. This paper bridges these disparate techniques to implement efficient parallel building thermal simulation. We begin with a survey of three structured reduction approaches that compares their performance to a leading unstructured method. We then use structured model reduction to find thermal clusters in the building energy model and allocate processing resources. Experimental results demonstrate faster simulation and low error without any interprocessor communication.

  12. Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications

    CERN Document Server

    Filipe, Joaquim; Kacprzyk, Janusz; Pina, Nuno

    2014-01-01

    This book includes extended and revised versions of a set of selected papers from the 2012 International Conference on Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications (SIMULTECH 2012) which was sponsored by the Institute for Systems and Technologies of Information, Control and Communication (INSTICC) and held in Rome, Italy. SIMULTECH 2012 was technically co-sponsored by the Society for Modeling & Simulation International (SCS), GDR I3, Lionphant Simulation, Simulation Team and IFIP and held in cooperation with AIS Special Interest Group of Modeling and Simulation (AIS SIGMAS) and the Movimento Italiano Modellazione e Simulazione (MIMOS).

  13. An introduction to enterprise modeling and simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ostic, J.K.; Cannon, C.E. [Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States). Technology Modeling and Analysis Group

    1996-09-01

    As part of an ongoing effort to continuously improve productivity, quality, and efficiency of both industry and Department of Energy enterprises, Los Alamos National Laboratory is investigating various manufacturing and business enterprise simulation methods. A number of enterprise simulation software models are being developed to enable engineering analysis of enterprise activities. In this document the authors define the scope of enterprise modeling and simulation efforts, and review recent work in enterprise simulation at Los Alamos National Laboratory as well as at other industrial, academic, and research institutions. References of enterprise modeling and simulation methods and a glossary of enterprise-related terms are provided.

  14. Accounting for the influence of vegetation and landscape improves model transferability in a tropical savannah region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Hongkai; Hrachowitz, Markus; Sriwongsitanon, Nutchanart; Fenicia, Fabrizio; Gharari, Shervan; Savenije, Hubert H. G.

    2016-10-01

    Understanding which catchment characteristics dominate hydrologic response and how to take them into account remains a challenge in hydrological modeling, particularly in ungauged basins. This is even more so in nontemperate and nonhumid catchments, where—due to the combination of seasonality and the occurrence of dry spells—threshold processes are more prominent in rainfall runoff behavior. An example is the tropical savannah, the second largest climatic zone, characterized by pronounced dry and wet seasons and high evaporative demand. In this study, we investigated the importance of landscape variability on the spatial variability of stream flow in tropical savannah basins. We applied a stepwise modeling approach to 23 subcatchments of the Upper Ping River in Thailand, where gradually more information on landscape was incorporated. The benchmark is represented by a classical lumped model (FLEXL), which does not account for spatial variability. We then tested the effect of accounting for vegetation information within the lumped model (FLEXLM), and subsequently two semidistributed models: one accounting for the spatial variability of topography-based landscape features alone (FLEXT), and another accounting for both topographic features and vegetation (FLEXTM). In cross validation, each model was calibrated on one catchment, and then transferred with its fitted parameters to the remaining catchments. We found that when transferring model parameters in space, the semidistributed models accounting for vegetation and topographic heterogeneity clearly outperformed the lumped model. This suggests that landscape controls a considerable part of the hydrological function and explicit consideration of its heterogeneity can be highly beneficial for prediction in ungauged basins in tropical savannah.

  15. A physiological production model for cacao : results of model simulations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zuidema, P.A.; Leffelaar, P.A.

    2002-01-01

    CASE2 is a physiological model for cocoa (Theobroma cacao L.) growth and yield. This report introduces the CAcao Simulation Engine for water-limited production in a non-technical way and presents simulation results obtained with the model.

  16. A physiological production model for cacao : results of model simulations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zuidema, P.A.; Leffelaar, P.A.

    2002-01-01

    CASE2 is a physiological model for cocoa (Theobroma cacao L.) growth and yield. This report introduces the CAcao Simulation Engine for water-limited production in a non-technical way and presents simulation results obtained with the model.

  17. Study of Multi-Scale Cloud Processes Over the Tropical Western Pacific Using Cloud-Resolving Models Constrained by Satellite Data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dudhia, Jimy

    2013-03-12

    Clouds in the tropical western Pacific are an integral part of the large scale environment. An improved understanding of the multi-scale structure of clouds and their interactions with the environment is critical to the ARM (Atmospheric Radiation Measurement) program for developing and evaluating cloud parameterizations, understanding the consequences of model biases, and providing a context for interpreting the observational data collected over the ARM Tropical Western Pacific (TWP) sites. Three-dimensional cloud resolving models (CRMs) are powerful tools for developing and evaluating cloud parameterizations. However, a significant challenge in using CRMs in the TWP is that the region lacks conventional data, so large uncertainty exists in defining the large-scale environment for clouds. This project links several aspects of the ARM program, from measurements to providing improved analyses, and from cloud-resolving modeling to climate-scale modeling and parameterization development, with the overall objective to improve the representations of clouds in climate models and to simulate and quantify resolved cloud effects on the large-scale environment. Our objectives will be achieved through a series of tasks focusing on the use of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and ARM data. Our approach includes: -- Perform assimilation of COSMIC GPS radio occultation and other satellites products using the WRF Ensemble Kalman Filter assimilation system to represent the tropical large-scale environment at 36 km grid resolution. This high-resolution analysis can be used by the community to derive forcing products for single-column models or cloud-resolving models. -- Perform cloud-resolving simulations using WRF and its nesting capabilities, driven by the improved regional analysis and evaluate the simulations against ARM datasets such as from TWP-ICE to optimize the microphysics parameters for this region. A cirrus study (Mace and co-authors) already exists for

  18. Species distribution models of tropical deep-sea snappers.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Céline Gomez

    Full Text Available Deep-sea fisheries provide an important source of protein to Pacific Island countries and territories that are highly dependent on fish for food security. However, spatial management of these deep-sea habitats is hindered by insufficient data. We developed species distribution models using spatially limited presence data for the main harvested species in the Western Central Pacific Ocean. We used bathymetric and water temperature data to develop presence-only species distribution models for the commercially exploited deep-sea snappers Etelis Cuvier 1828, Pristipomoides Valenciennes 1830, and Aphareus Cuvier 1830. We evaluated the performance of four different algorithms (CTA, GLM, MARS, and MAXENT within the BIOMOD framework to obtain an ensemble of predicted distributions. We projected these predictions across the Western Central Pacific Ocean to produce maps of potential deep-sea snapper distributions in 32 countries and territories. Depth was consistently the best predictor of presence for all species groups across all models. Bathymetric slope was consistently the poorest predictor. Temperature at depth was a good predictor of presence for GLM only. Model precision was highest for MAXENT and CTA. There were strong regional patterns in predicted distribution of suitable habitat, with the largest areas of suitable habitat (> 35% of the Exclusive Economic Zone predicted in seven South Pacific countries and territories (Fiji, Matthew & Hunter, Nauru, New Caledonia, Tonga, Vanuatu and Wallis & Futuna. Predicted habitat also varied among species, with the proportion of predicted habitat highest for Aphareus and lowest for Etelis. Despite data paucity, the relationship between deep-sea snapper presence and their environments was sufficiently strong to predict their distribution across a large area of the Pacific Ocean. Our results therefore provide a strong baseline for designing monitoring programs that balance resource exploitation and

  19. Modeling tropical river runoff:A time dependent approach

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Rashmi Nigam; Sudhir Nigam; Sushil K.Mittal

    2014-01-01

    Forecasting of rainfall and subsequent river runoff is important for many operational problems and applications related to hydrol-ogy. Modeling river runoff often requires rigorous mathematical analysis of vast historical data to arrive at reasonable conclusions. In this paper we have applied the stochastic method to characterize and predict river runoff of the perennial Kulfo River in south-ern Ethiopia. The time series analysis based auto regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) approach is applied to mean monthly runoff data with 10 and 20 years spans. The varying length of the input runoff data is shown to influence the forecasting efficiency of the stochastic process. Preprocessing of the runoff time series data indicated that the data do not follow a seasonal pattern. Our forecasts were made using parsimonious non seasonal ARIMA models and the results were compared to actual 10-year and 20-year mean monthly runoff data of the Kulfo River. Our results indicate that river runoff forecasts based upon the 10-year data are more accurate and efficient than the model based on the 20-year time series.

  20. On the development of a coupled regional climate-vegetation model RCM-CLM-CN-DV and its validation in Tropical Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Guiling; Yu, Miao; Pal, Jeremy S.; Mei, Rui; Bonan, Gordon B.; Levis, Samuel; Thornton, Peter E.

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents a regional climate system model RCM-CLM-CN-DV and its validation over Tropical Africa. The model development involves the initial coupling between the ICTP regional climate model RegCM4.3.4 (RCM) and the Community Land Model version 4 (CLM4) including models of carbon-nitrogen dynamics (CN) and vegetation dynamics (DV), and further improvements of the models. Model improvements derive from the new parameterization from CLM4.5 that addresses the well documented overestimation of gross primary production (GPP), a refinement of stress deciduous phenology scheme in CN that addresses a spurious LAI fluctuation for drought-deciduous plants, and the incorporation of a survival rule into the DV model to prevent tropical broadleaf evergreens trees from growing in areas with a prolonged drought season. The impact of the modifications on model results is documented based on numerical experiments using various subcomponents of the model. The performance of the coupled model is then validated against observational data based on three configurations with increasing capacity: RCM-CLM with prescribed leaf area index and fractional coverage of different plant functional types (PFTs); RCM-CLM-CN with prescribed PFTs coverage but prognostic plant phenology; RCM-CLM-CN-DV in which both the plant phenology and PFTs coverage are simulated by the model. Results from these three models are compared against the FLUXNET up-scaled GPP and ET data, LAI and PFT coverages from remote sensing data including MODIS and GIMMS, University of Delaware precipitation and temperature data, and surface radiation data from MVIRI and SRB. Our results indicate that the models perform well in reproducing the physical climate and surface radiative budgets in the domain of interest. However, PFTs coverage is significantly underestimated by the model over arid and semi-arid regions of Tropical Africa, caused by an underestimation of LAI in these regions by the CN model that gets exacerbated

  1. Comparison of Cloud Resolving Model Simulations to Remote Sensing Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Randall, David A.; Eitzen, Zachary

    2005-01-01

    The purpose of this research was to evaluate the ability of a cloud-resolving model (CRM) to simulate the dynamical, radiative, and microphysical properties of deep convective cloud objects identified using CERES (Clouds and the Earth s Radiant Energy System) on board the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite platform, for many cases. A deep convective cloud object is a contiguous region that is composed of satellite footprints that fulfill the following selection criteria: 100% cloud fraction, cloud optical depth > 10, and a cloud top height of at least 10 km. Selection criteria have also been formed for different types of boundary-layer clouds, as described in Xu et al. (2005). The purpose of the cloud object approach is to identify specific areas of where the cloud properties simulated by the CRM systematically differ from the observed cloud properties. Where these systematic differences exist, concrete steps can be made to improve the CRM s simulation of an entire class of clouds, rather than by tuning the model to correctly simulate a single case study, as is often done. Additional information regarding detailed approaches and findings are presented.

  2. Simulation modeling and analysis with Arena

    CERN Document Server

    Altiok, Tayfur

    2007-01-01

    Simulation Modeling and Analysis with Arena is a highly readable textbook which treats the essentials of the Monte Carlo discrete-event simulation methodology, and does so in the context of a popular Arena simulation environment.” It treats simulation modeling as an in-vitro laboratory that facilitates the understanding of complex systems and experimentation with what-if scenarios in order to estimate their performance metrics. The book contains chapters on the simulation modeling methodology and the underpinnings of discrete-event systems, as well as the relevant underlying probability, statistics, stochastic processes, input analysis, model validation and output analysis. All simulation-related concepts are illustrated in numerous Arena examples, encompassing production lines, manufacturing and inventory systems, transportation systems, and computer information systems in networked settings.· Introduces the concept of discrete event Monte Carlo simulation, the most commonly used methodology for modeli...

  3. Nonsmooth Modeling and Simulation for Switched Circuits

    CERN Document Server

    Acary, Vincent; Brogliato, Bernard

    2011-01-01

    "Nonsmooth Modeling and Simulation for Switched Circuits" concerns the modeling and the numerical simulation of switched circuits with the nonsmooth dynamical systems (NSDS) approach, using piecewise-linear and multivalued models of electronic devices like diodes, transistors, switches. Numerous examples (ranging from introductory academic circuits to various types of power converters) are analyzed and many simulation results obtained with the INRIA open-source SICONOS software package are presented. Comparisons with SPICE and hybrid methods demonstrate the power of the NSDS approach

  4. Juno model rheometry and simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sampl, Manfred; Macher, Wolfgang; Oswald, Thomas; Plettemeier, Dirk; Rucker, Helmut O.; Kurth, William S.

    2016-10-01

    The experiment Waves aboard the Juno spacecraft, which will arrive at its target planet Jupiter in 2016, was devised to study the plasma and radio waves of the Jovian magnetosphere. We analyzed the Waves antennas, which consist of two nonparallel monopoles operated as a dipole. For this investigation we applied two independent methods: the experimental technique, rheometry, which is based on a downscaled model of the spacecraft to measure the antenna properties in an electrolytic tank and numerical simulations, based on commercial computer codes, from which the quantities of interest (antenna impedances and effective length vectors) are calculated. In this article we focus on the results for the low-frequency range up to about 4 MHz, where the antenna system is in the quasi-static regime. Our findings show that there is a significant deviation of the effective length vectors from the physical monopole directions, caused by the presence of the conducting spacecraft body. The effective axes of the antenna monopoles are offset from the mechanical axes by more than 30°, and effective lengths show a reduction to about 60% of the antenna rod lengths. The antennas' mutual capacitances are small compared to the self-capacitances, and the latter are almost the same for the two monopoles. The overall performance of the antennas in dipole configuration is very stable throughout the frequency range up to about 4-5 MHz and therefore can be regarded as the upper frequency bound below which the presented quasi-static results are applicable.

  5. On the interest of positive degree day models for mass balance modeling in the inner tropics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Maisincho

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available A positive degree-day (PDD model was tested on Antizana Glacier 15α (0.28 km2; 0°28' S, 78°09' W to assess to what extent this approach is suitable for studying glacier mass balance in the inner tropics. Cumulative positive temperatures were compared with field measurements of melting amount and with surface energy balance computations. A significant link was revealed when a distinction was made between the snow and ice comprising the glacier surface. Significant correlations allowed degree-day factors to be retrieved for snow, and clean and dirty ice. The relationship between melt amount and temperature was mainly explained by the role of net shortwave radiation in both melting and in the variations in the temperature of the surface layer. However, this relationship disappeared from June to October (Period 1, because high wind speeds and low humidity cause highly negative turbulent latent heat fluxes. However, this had little impact on the computed total amount of melting at the annual time scale because temperatures are low and melting is generally limited during Period 1. At the daily time scale, melting starts when daily temperature means are still negative, because around noon incoming shortwave radiation is very high, and compensates for energy losses when the air is cold. The PDD model was applied to the 2000–2008 period using meteorological inputs measured on the glacier foreland. Results were compared to the glacier-wide mass balances measured in the field and were good, even though the melting factor should be adapted to the glacier surface state and may vary with time. Finally, the model was forced with precipitation and temperature data from the remote Izobamba station and NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data, also giving good results and showing that temperature variations are homogenous at the regional scale, meaning glacier mass balances can be modelled over large areas.

  6. The Large-Scale Ocean Dynamical Effect on uncertainty in the Tropical Pacific SST Warming Pattern in CMIP5 Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ying, Jun; Huang, Ping

    2017-04-01

    This study investigates how intermodel differences in large-scale ocean dynamics affect the tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) warming (TPSW) pattern under global warming, as projected by 32 models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The largest cause of intermodel TPSW pattern differences is related to the cloud-radiation feedback. After removing the effect of cloud-radiation feedback, we find that differences in ocean advection play the next largest role, explaining around 14% of the total intermodel variance in TPSW pattern. Of particular importance are differences in climatological zonal overturning circulation among the models. With the robust enhancement of ocean stratification across models, models with relatively strong climatological upwelling tend to have relatively weak SST warming in the eastern Pacific. Meanwhile, the pronounced intermodel differences in ocean overturning changes under global warming contribute little to uncertainty in the TPSW pattern. The intermodel differences in climatological zonal overturning are found to be associated with the intermodel spread in climatological SST. In most CMIP5 models, there is a common cold tongue bias associated with an overly strong overturning in the climatology simulation, implying a LaNiña-like bias in the TPSW pattern projected by the MME of the CMIP5 models. This provides further evidence for the projection that the TPSW pattern should be closer to an El Niño-like pattern than the MME projection.

  7. Network Modeling and Simulation A Practical Perspective

    CERN Document Server

    Guizani, Mohsen; Khan, Bilal

    2010-01-01

    Network Modeling and Simulation is a practical guide to using modeling and simulation to solve real-life problems. The authors give a comprehensive exposition of the core concepts in modeling and simulation, and then systematically address the many practical considerations faced by developers in modeling complex large-scale systems. The authors provide examples from computer and telecommunication networks and use these to illustrate the process of mapping generic simulation concepts to domain-specific problems in different industries and disciplines. Key features: Provides the tools and strate

  8. Application of one-dimensional land-surface model to tropical glaciers in Bolivia (16°S)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leonardini, Gonzalo; Yamazaki, Takeshi; Asaoka, Yoshihiro; Ramírez, Edson

    2013-04-01

    In the Bolivian Andes is distributed an important number of tropical glaciers. According to previous works, these glaciers have been characterized by an accelerated retreat and melting in the last years and its runoff has been used as water resources for many purposes for the local population. The main goal of this research is to estimate the amount of snow/ice melt in some specific glaciers and to find the main meteorological control-factors and differences using a land-surface model. A one-dimensional multi-layer model has been adapted to the study of Bolivian glaciers in tropical conditions. In the model, the snow and soil components are considered, and the information of the ice component is introduced in the initial condition; the boundary condition is provided by the energy balance at the atmosphere-glacier and at the glacier-soil interphases. The model can calculate profiles of density, temperature and liquid water content as well as snowmelt and energy exchange between the atmosphere and the snow/ice surface. It has been applied to Zongo Glacier (16°S) in the southern part of the Bolivian Andes and it has been validated through the whole hydrological year 2005-2006 using the data provided by GLACIOCLIM (les GLaCIers un Observatoire du CLIMat). The surface temperature, the net radiation and the profile of snow/ice are simulated reasonably and the diurnal and seasonal changes of latent and sensible heats agreed with the previous works on the same glacier. We planned to extend this study to Condoriri and Huayna West Glaciers located in the same area of the study, and where we started meteorological observations at the end of 2011. This study is carried out by GRANDE (Glacier Retreat impact Assessment and National policy Development) project supported by JST/JICA, SATREPS (Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable Development).

  9. Studies of climate dynamics with innovative global-model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Xiaoming

    . Motivated by the fact that natural variability of the atmosphere could obscure the signal of anthropogenic warming on time scales of years to decades, the large scale variability of the atmosphere is also studied. Analysis using simulations in the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble project reveals that the Northern Annular Mode (NAM) does not have a stable spatial pattern when 50-year long segments of data are used to calculate it. Some segments of data result in NAM-like variability with a very strong North Pacific center of action, while in some others it exhibits a more symmetric structure, with North Pacific and Euro-Atlantic centers of comparable strength. Perhaps somewhat puzzling, the NAM's North Pacific center of action is found to have a strengthening trend under anthropogenic warming. Lastly, the large-scale character of an atmosphere in rotating Radiative-Convective Equilibrium (RCE) is studied, using a global atmospheric model with prescribed globally uniform sea surface temperature and no insolation. In such an equilibrium state, numerous tropical cyclone-like vortices develop in the extratropics, which move slowly poleward and westward. The typical spacing of simulated tropical cyclone-like vortices is comparable to the Rossby radius of deformation, while the production of available potential energy is at a scale slightly smaller than that of the vortices. It is hypothesized that the growth of tropical cyclone-like vortices is driven by the self-aggregation of convection, while baroclinic instability destabilizes any vortices that grow significantly larger than the deformation radius. A weak Hadley circulation dominates in the deep tropics, and an eastward-propagating wavenumber one MJO-like mode with a period of 30 to 40 days develops along the equator.

  10. Influence of landscape heterogeneity on water availability to tropical forests in an Amazonian catchment and implications for modeling drought response

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fang, Yilin; Leung, Ruby L.; Duan, Zhuoran; Wigmosta, Mark S.; Maxwell, Reed M.; Chambers, Jeffrey Q.; Tomasella, Javier

    2017-08-18

    The Amazon basin experienced periodic droughts in the past, and climate models projected more intense and frequent droughts in the future. How tropical forests respond to drought may depend on water availability, which is modulated by landscape heterogeneity. Using the one-dimensional ACME Land Model (ALM) and the three-dimensional ParFlow variably saturated flow model, a series of numerical experiments were performed for the Asu catchment in central Amazon to elucidate processes that influence water available for plant use and provide insights for improving Earth system models. Results from ParFlow show that topography has a dominant influence on groundwater table and runoff through lateral flow. Without any representations of lateral processes, ALM simulates very different seasonal variations in groundwater table and runoff compared to ParFlow even if it is able to reproduce the long-term spatial average groundwater table of ParFlow through simple parameter calibration. In the ParFlow simulations, the groundwater table is evidently deeper and the soil saturation is lower in the plateau compared to the valley. However, even in the plateau during the dry season in the drought year of 2005, plant transpiration is not water stressed in the ParFlow simulations as the soil saturation is still sufficient to maintain a soil matric potential for the stomata to be fully open. This finding is insensitive to uncertainty in atmospheric forcing and soil parameters, but the empirical wilting formulation used in the models is an important factor that should be addressed using observations and modeling of coupled plant hydraulics-soil hydrology processes in future studies.

  11. The Brazilian developments on the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (BRAMS 5.2): an integrated environmental model tuned for tropical areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freitas, Saulo R.; Panetta, Jairo; Longo, Karla M.; Rodrigues, Luiz F.; Moreira, Demerval S.; Rosário, Nilton E.; Silva Dias, Pedro L.; Silva Dias, Maria A. F.; Souza, Enio P.; Freitas, Edmilson D.; Longo, Marcos; Frassoni, Ariane; Fazenda, Alvaro L.; Silva, Cláudio M. Santos e.; Pavani, Cláudio A. B.; Eiras, Denis; França, Daniela A.; Massaru, Daniel; Silva, Fernanda B.; Santos, Fernando C.; Pereira, Gabriel; Camponogara, Gláuber; Ferrada, Gonzalo A.; Campos Velho, Haroldo F.; Menezes, Isilda; Freire, Julliana L.; Alonso, Marcelo F.; Gácita, Madeleine S.; Zarzur, Maurício; Fonseca, Rafael M.; Lima, Rafael S.; Siqueira, Ricardo A.; Braz, Rodrigo; Tomita, Simone; Oliveira, Valter; Martins, Leila D.

    2017-01-01

    We present a new version of the Brazilian developments on the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (BRAMS), in which different previous versions for weather, chemistry, and carbon cycle were unified in a single integrated modeling system software. This new version also has a new set of state-of-the-art physical parameterizations and greater computational parallel and memory usage efficiency. The description of the main model features includes several examples illustrating the quality of the transport scheme for scalars, radiative fluxes on surface, and model simulation of rainfall systems over South America at different spatial resolutions using a scale aware convective parameterization. Additionally, the simulation of the diurnal cycle of the convection and carbon dioxide concentration over the Amazon Basin, as well as carbon dioxide fluxes from biogenic processes over a large portion of South America, are shown. Atmospheric chemistry examples show the model performance in simulating near-surface carbon monoxide and ozone in the Amazon Basin and the megacity of Rio de Janeiro. For tracer transport and dispersion, the model capabilities to simulate the volcanic ash 3-D redistribution associated with the eruption of a Chilean volcano are demonstrated. The gain of computational efficiency is described in some detail. BRAMS has been applied for research and operational forecasting mainly in South America. Model results from the operational weather forecast of BRAMS on 5 km grid spacing in the Center for Weather Forecasting and Climate Studies, INPE/Brazil, since 2013 are used to quantify the model skill of near-surface variables and rainfall. The scores show the reliability of BRAMS for the tropical and subtropical areas of South America. Requirements for keeping this modeling system competitive regarding both its functionalities and skills are discussed. Finally, we highlight the relevant contribution of this work to building a South American community of model

  12. Simulated effects of a seasonal precipitation change on the vegetation in tropical Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. S. Gritti

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Pollen data collected in Africa at high (Kuruyange, valley swamp, Burundi and low altitude (Victoria, lake, Uganda; Ngamakala, pond, Congo showed that after 6 ky before present (BP, pollen of deciduous trees increase their relative percentage, suggesting thus the reduction of the annual amount of precipitation and/or an increase of in the length of the dry season. Until now, pollen-climate transfer functions only investigated mean annual precipitation, due to the absence of modern pollen-assemblage analogs under diversified precipitation regimes. Hence these functions omit the potential effect of a change in precipitation seasonality modifying thus the length of the dry season. In the present study, we use an equilibrium biosphere model (i.e. BIOME3.5 to estimate the sensitivity of equatorial African vegetation, at specific sites, to such changes. Climatic scenarios, differing only in the monthly distribution of the current annual amount of precipitation, are examined at the above three locations in equatorial Africa. Soil characteristics, monthly temperatures and cloudiness are kept constant at their present-day values. Good agreement is shown between model simulations and current biomes assemblages, as inferred from pollen data. To date, the increase of the deciduous forest component in the palaeodata around 6 ky BP has been interpreted as the beginning of a drier climate period. However, our results demonstrate that a change in the seasonal distribution of precipitation could also induce the observed changes in vegetation types. This study confirms the importance of taking into account seasonal changes in the hydrological balance. Palaeoecologists can greatly benefit from the use of dynamic process based vegetation models to acccount for modification of the length of the dry season when they wish to reconstruct vegetation composition or to infer quantitative climate parameters, such as temperature and precipitation, from pollen or vegetation

  13. Testing hypotheses of the functioning of a tropical catchment: evaluating the role of model-structural and observational uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westerberg, I.; Birkel, C.

    2012-04-01

    Knowledge about hydrological processes and the spatial and temporal distribution of water resources is the basis for water management such as hydropower, agriculture and flood-protection. Conceptual hydrological models may be used to infer knowledge on catchment functioning but are affected by uncertainties in the model representation of reality as well as in the observational data used to drive the model and to evaluate model performance. Therefore, meaningful hypotheses testing of the hydrological functioning of a catchment requires such uncertainties to be carefully estimated and accounted for in model calibration and evaluation. We investigated the hydrological functioning of the relatively data-scarce tropical Sarapiqui catchment in Costa Rica, Central America, where water resources play a vital part for hydropower production and livelihood. Hypotheses on catchment functioning using different model structures were tested within an uncertainty estimation framework specifically accounting for observational uncertainties. The uncertainty in discharge data was estimated from a rating-curve analysis and precipitation measurement errors through scenarios relating the error to, for example, the elevation gradient. The suitability of the different model structures as hypotheses about the functioning of the catchment was evaluated in a posterior analysis of the simulations. The performance of each simulation relative to the observational uncertainties was analysed for the entire hydrograph as well as for different aspects of the hydrograph (e.g. peak flows, recession periods, and base flow). This analysis enabled the identification of periods of likely model-structural errors and periods of probable data errors. We conclude that accounting for observational uncertainties led to improved hypotheses testing, which resulted in less risk of rejecting an acceptable model structure because of uncertainties in the forcing and evaluation data.

  14. On the mechanisms in a tropical ocean-global atmosphere coupled general circulation model. Pt. I. Mean state and the seasonal cycle

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vintzileos, A. [Paris-6 Univ., 75 (France). Lab. de Meteorologie Dynamique; Delecluse, P. [Laboratoire d`Oceanographie Dynamique et de Climatologie, UMR: CNRS/ORSTOM/Universite Pierre et Marie Curie, Universite Pierre et Marie Curie, Tour 26, etage 4, 4, place Jussieu, 75252 Paris Cedex 05 (France); Sadourny, R. [Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique du CNRS, Ecole Normale Superieure, 24, rue Lhomond, 75231 Paris Cedex 05 (France)

    1999-01-01

    The mechanisms responsible for the mean state and the seasonal and interannual variations of the coupled tropical Pacific-global atmosphere system are investigated by analyzing a thirty year simulation, where the LMD global atmospheric model and the LODYC tropical Pacific model are coupled using the delocalized physics method. No flux correction is needed over the tropical region. The coupled model reaches its regime state roughly after one year of integration in spite of the fact that the ocean is initialized from rest. Departures from the mean state are characterized by oscillations with dominant periodicities at annual, biennial and quadriennial time scales. In our model, equatorial sea surface temperature and wind stress fluctuations evolved in phase. In the central Pacific during boreal autumn, the sea surface temperature is cold, the wind stress is strong, and the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) is shifted northwards. The northward shift of the ITCZ enhances atmospheric and oceanic subsidence between the equator and the latitude of organized convention. In turn, the stronger oceanic subsidence reinforces equatorward convergence of water masses at the thermocline depth which, being not balanced by equatorial upwelling, deepens the equatorial thermocline. An equivalent view is that the deepening of the thermocline proceeds from the weakening of the meridional draining of near-surface equatorial waters. The inverse picture prevails during spring, when the equatorial sea surface temperatures are warm. Thus temperature anomalies tend to appear at the thermocline level, in phase opposition to the surface conditions. (orig.) With 28 figs., 2 tabs., 60 refs.

  15. Hurricane Modeling and Supercomputing: Can a global mesoscale model be useful in improving forecasts of tropical cyclogenesis?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, B.; Tao, W.; Atlas, R.

    2007-12-01

    Hurricane modeling, along with guidance from observations, has been used to help construct hurricane theories since the 1960s. CISK (conditional instability of the second kind, Charney and Eliassen 1964; Ooyama 1964,1969) and WISHE (wind-induced surface heat exchange, Emanuel 1986) are among the well-known theories being used to understand hurricane intensification. For hurricane genesis, observations have indicated the importance of large-scale flows (e.g., the Madden-Julian Oscillation or MJO, Maloney and Hartmann, 2000) on the modulation of hurricane activity. Recent modeling studies have focused on the role of the MJO and Rossby waves (e.g., Ferreira and Schubert, 1996; Aivyer and Molinari, 2003) and/or the interaction of small-scale vortices (e.g., Holland 1995; Simpson et al. 1997; Hendrick et al. 2004), of which determinism could be also built by large-scale flows. The aforementioned studies suggest a unified view on hurricane formation, consisting of multiscale processes such as scale transition (e.g., from the MJO to Equatorial Rossby Waves and from waves to vortices), and scale interactions among vortices, convection, and surface heat and moisture fluxes. To depict the processes in the unified view, a high-resolution global model is needed. During the past several years, supercomputers have enabled the deployment of ultra-high resolution global models, obtaining remarkable forecasts of hurricane track and intensity (Atlas et al. 2005; Shen et al. 2006). In this work, hurricane genesis is investigated with the aid of a global mesoscale model on the NASA Columbia supercomputer by conducting numerical experiments on the genesis of six consecutive tropical cyclones (TCs) in May 2002. These TCs include two pairs of twin TCs in the Indian Ocean, Supertyphoon Hagibis in the West Pacific Ocean and Hurricane Alma in the East Pacific Ocean. It is found that the model is capable of predicting the genesis of five of these TCs about two to three days in advance. Our

  16. Bringing simulation to implementation: Presentation of a global approach in the design of passive solar buildings under humid tropical climates

    CERN Document Server

    Garde, François; Celaire, Robert

    2012-01-01

    In early 1995, a DSM pilot initiative has been launched in the French islands of Guadeloupe and Reunion through a partnership between several public and private partners (the French Public Utility EDF, the University of Reunion Island, low cost housing companies, architects, energy consultants, etc...) to set up standards to improve thermal design of new residential buildings in tropical climates. This partnership led to defining optimized bio-climatic urban planning and architectural designs featuring the use of passive cooling architectural principles (solar shading, natural ventilation) and components, as well as energy efficient systems and technologies. The design and sizing of each architectural component on internal thermal comfort in building has been assessed with a validated thermal and airflow building simulation software (CODYRUN). These technical specifications have been edited in a reference document which has been used to build over 300 new pilot dwellings through the years 1996-1998 in Reunion...

  17. Maintenance of the free-tropospheric tropical water vapor distribution. Part II: Simulation by large-scale advection

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sherwood, S.C. [Univ. of California, La Jolla, CA (United States)

    1996-11-01

    Analyzed wind fields are used to perform a simple advection of moisture by the large-scale circulation in three dimensions at 2.5{degrees} resolution. The unresolved moisture sink Q{sub 2} due to convection is neglected, except in regions of strong ascent where it is used to enforce a 90% relative humidity ceiling, as determined from sounding and geostationary satellite observations. The result is a simulation of water vapor that agrees quantitatively with satellite (Special Sensor Microwave Water Vapor) and sounding observations over the tropical oceans, in both and moist regions, to within 10% relative humidity or better from 700 to 300 mb inclusively. Horizontal transport into and regions from convective regions is accomplished by large coherent structures. Implications of the results for the role of convection in maintaining the observed humidity distribution, and for the interpretation of observed correlations between cloud cover and vapor, are discussed. 38 refs., 14 figs., 1 tab.

  18. Developing Mechanism of Rubber-tea-chicken Agro-forestry Model in Tropical Area of China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Meng Qingyan; Miao Zewei; Wang Zhaoqian

    2012-01-01

    As a typical tropical agro-forestry ecosystem in Wenchang, Hainan Province, China, rational mechanisms of the rubber-tea-chicken eco-agricultural model were studied with the Solow technological level index, stability indicator, harmonizing coefficient, grey corretation coefficient and production dominance. This study focused on rational hierarchical structure, the limiting factors and optimal strategies of the model development based on model structure, resource conditions and external market demands. Results showed that rational mechanism of the rubber-tea-chicken ecosystem model mainly included technological contributions, leverage function of dominance component (livestock husbandry), stability of the model structure and harmony of its components, the model dominant product's market demand and government's supporting policies. The contributions of fund, technology, information and talent resources played an important role in improving sustainability and productivity of the agro-forestry model.

  19. Historical and projected changes in the Southern Hemisphere Sub-tropical Jet during winter from the CMIP5 models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chenoli, Sheeba Nettukandy; Ahmad Mazuki, Muhammad Yunus; Turner, John; Samah, Azizan Abu

    2017-01-01

    We present projected changes in the speed and meridional location of the Subtropical Jet (STJ) during winter using output of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models. We use the ERA-Interim reanalysis dataset to evaluate the historical simulations of the STJ by 18 of the CMIP5 models for the period 1979-2012. Based on the climatology of the STJ from ERA-Interim, we selected the area of study as 70°E-290°E and 20°S-40°S, which is over the Indian and Southern Pacific Oceans, and 300-100 hPa to reduce altitude-related bias. An assessment of the ability of the CMIP5 models in simulating ENSO effects on the jet stream were carried out using standardized zonal wind anomalies at 300-100 hPa. Results show that 47 % of the CMIP5 models used in this study were able to simulate ENSO impacts realistically. In addition, it is more difficult for the models to reproduce the observed intensity of ENSO impacts than the patterns. The historical simulations of the CMIP5 models show a wide range of trends in meridional movement and jet strength, with a multi-model mean of 0.04° decade-1 equatorward and 0.42 ms-1 decade-1 respectively. In contrast to the ERA-Interim analysis, 94 % of the CMIP5 models show a strengthening of the jet in the historical runs. Variability of the jet strength is significantly (5 %) linked to the sea surface temperature changes over the eastern tropical Pacific. The CMIP5 model projections with Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 were used for analysis of changes of the STJ for the period 2011-2099. Based on the RCP 4.5 (RCP 8.5) scenario the multi-model mean trend of the 18 CMIP5 models project a statistically significant (5 % level) increase in jet strength by the end of the century of 0.29 ms-1 decade-1 (0.60 ms-1 decade-1). Also, the mean meridional location of the jet is projected to shift poleward by 0.006° decade-1 (0.042° decade-1) in 2099 during winter, with the only significant (5 %) trend being

  20. Modeling the inorganic bromine partitioning in the tropical tropopause layer over the eastern and western Pacific Ocean

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. A. Navarro

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available The stratospheric inorganic bromine (Bry burden arising from the degradation of brominated very short-lived organic substances (VSLorg and its partitioning between reactive and reservoir species is needed for a comprehensive assessment of the ozone depletion potential of brominated trace gases. Here we present modeled inorganic bromine abundances over the Pacific tropical tropopause based on aircraft observations of VSLorg from two campaigns of the Airborne Tropical TRopopause EXperiment (ATTREX 2013, carried out over the eastern Pacific, and ATTREX 2014, carried out over the western Pacific and chemistry-climate simulations (along ATTREX flight tracks using the specific meteorology prevailing. Using the Community Atmosphere Model with Chemistry (CAM-Chem we model that BrO and Br are the daytime dominant species. Integrated across all ATTREX flights, BrO represents ∼ 43 and 48 % of daytime Bry abundance at 17 km over the western and eastern Pacific, respectively. The results also show zones where Br / BrO > 1 depending on the solar zenith angle (SZA, ozone concentration, and temperature. On the other hand, BrCl and BrONO2 were found to be the dominant nighttime species with ∼  61 and 56 % of abundance at 17 km over the western and eastern Pacific, respectively. The western-to-eastern differences in the partitioning of inorganic bromine are explained by different abundances of ozone (O3, nitrogen dioxide (NO2, total inorganic chlorine (Cly, and the efficiency of heterogeneous reactions of bromine reservoirs (mostly BrONO2 and HBr occurring on ice crystals.

  1. Modeling the inorganic bromine partitioning in the tropical tropopause layer over the eastern and western Pacific Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Navarro, Maria A.; Saiz-Lopez, Alfonso; Cuevas, Carlos A.; Fernandez, Rafael P.; Atlas, Elliot; Rodriguez-Lloveras, Xavier; Kinnison, Douglas; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Tilmes, Simone; Thornberry, Troy; Rollins, Andrew; Elkins, James W.; Hintsa, Eric J.; Moore, Fred L.

    2017-08-01

    The stratospheric inorganic bromine (Bry) burden arising from the degradation of brominated very short-lived organic substances (VSLorg) and its partitioning between reactive and reservoir species is needed for a comprehensive assessment of the ozone depletion potential of brominated trace gases. Here we present modeled inorganic bromine abundances over the Pacific tropical tropopause based on aircraft observations of VSLorg from two campaigns of the Airborne Tropical TRopopause EXperiment (ATTREX 2013, carried out over the eastern Pacific, and ATTREX 2014, carried out over the western Pacific) and chemistry-climate simulations (along ATTREX flight tracks) using the specific meteorology prevailing. Using the Community Atmosphere Model with Chemistry (CAM-Chem) we model that BrO and Br are the daytime dominant species. Integrated across all ATTREX flights, BrO represents ˜ 43 and 48 % of daytime Bry abundance at 17 km over the western and eastern Pacific, respectively. The results also show zones where Br / BrO > 1 depending on the solar zenith angle (SZA), ozone concentration, and temperature. On the other hand, BrCl and BrONO2 were found to be the dominant nighttime species with ˜ 61 and 56 % of abundance at 17 km over the western and eastern Pacific, respectively. The western-to-eastern differences in the partitioning of inorganic bromine are explained by different abundances of ozone (O3), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), total inorganic chlorine (Cly), and the efficiency of heterogeneous reactions of bromine reservoirs (mostly BrONO2 and HBr) occurring on ice crystals.

  2. ENSO Effect on East Asian Tropical Cyclone Landfall via Changes in Tracks and Genesis in a Statistical Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yonekura, Emmi; Hall, Timothy M.

    2014-01-01

    Improvements on a statistical tropical cyclone (TC) track model in the western North Pacific Ocean are described. The goal of the model is to study the effect of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on East Asian TC landfall. The model is based on the International Best-Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) database of TC observations for 1945-2007 and employs local regression of TC formation rates and track increments on the Nino-3.4 index and seasonally varying climate parameters. The main improvements are the inclusion of ENSO dependence in the track propagation and accounting for seasonality in both genesis and tracks. A comparison of simulations of the 1945-2007 period with observations concludes that the model updates improve the skill of this model in simulating TCs. Changes in TC genesis and tracks are analyzed separately and cumulatively in simulations of stationary extreme ENSO states. ENSO effects on regional (100-km scale) landfall are attributed to changes in genesis and tracks. The effect of ENSO on genesis is predominantly a shift in genesis location from the southeast in El Nino years to the northwest in La Nina years, resulting in higher landfall rates for the East Asian coast during La Nina. The effect of ENSO on track propagation varies seasonally and spatially. In the peak activity season (July-October), there are significant changes in mean tracks with ENSO. Landfall-rate changes from genesis- and track-ENSO effects in the Philippines cancel out, while coastal segments of Vietnam, China, the Korean Peninsula, and Japan show enhanced La Nina-year increases.

  3. VHDL simulation with access to transistor models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gibson, J.

    1991-01-01

    Hardware description languages such as VHDL have evolved to aid in the design of systems with large numbers of elements and a wide range of electronic and logical abstractions. For high performance circuits, behavioral models may not be able to efficiently include enough detail to give designers confidence in a simulation's accuracy. One option is to provide a link between the VHDL environment and a transistor level simulation environment. The coupling of the Vantage Analysis Systems VHDL simulator and the NOVA simulator provides the combination of VHDL modeling and transistor modeling.

  4. Shallowness of tropical low clouds as a predictor of climate models' response to warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brient, Florent; Schneider, Tapio; Tan, Zhihong; Bony, Sandrine; Qu, Xin; Hall, Alex

    2016-07-01

    How tropical low clouds change with climate remains the dominant source of uncertainty in global warming projections. An analysis of an ensemble of CMIP5 climate models reveals that a significant part of the spread in the models' climate sensitivity can be accounted by differences in the climatological shallowness of tropical low clouds in weak-subsidence regimes: models with shallower low clouds in weak-subsidence regimes tend to have a higher climate sensitivity than models with deeper low clouds. The dynamical mechanisms responsible for the model differences are analyzed. Competing effects of parameterized boundary-layer turbulence and shallow convection are found to be essential. Boundary-layer turbulence and shallow convection are typically represented by distinct parameterization schemes in current models—parameterization schemes that often produce opposing effects on low clouds. Convective drying of the boundary layer tends to deepen low clouds and reduce the cloud fraction at the lowest levels; turbulent moistening tends to make low clouds more shallow but affects the low-cloud fraction less. The relative importance different models assign to these opposing mechanisms contributes to the spread of the climatological shallowness of low clouds and thus to the spread of low-cloud changes under global warming.

  5. Representation of tropical deep convection in atmospheric models – Part 2: Tracer transport

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. R. Hoyle

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available The tropical transport processes of 14 different models or model versions were compared, within the framework of the SCOUT-O3 (Stratospheric-Climate Links with Emphasis on the Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere project. The tested models range from the regional to the global scale, and include numerical weather prediction (NWP, chemical transport, and chemistry-climate models. Idealised tracers were used in order to prevent the model's chemistry schemes from influencing the results substantially, so that the effects of modelled transport could be isolated. We find large differences in the vertical transport of very short-lived tracers (with a lifetime of 6 h within the tropical troposphere. Peak convective outflow altitudes range from around 300 hPa to almost 100 hPa among the different models, and the upper tropospheric tracer mixing ratios differ by up to an order of magnitude. The timing of convective events is found to be different between the models, even among those which source their forcing data from the same NWP model (ECMWF. The differences are less pronounced for longer lived tracers, however they could have implications for modelling the halogen burden of the lowermost stratosphere through transport of species such as bromoform, or short-lived hydrocarbons into the lowermost stratosphere. The modelled tracer profiles are strongly influenced by the convective transport parameterisations, and different boundary layer mixing parameterisations also have a large impact on the modelled tracer profiles. Preferential locations for rapid transport from the surface into the upper troposphere are similar in all models, and are mostly concentrated over the western Pacific, the Maritime Continent and the Indian Ocean. In contrast, models do not indicate that upward transport is highest over western Africa.

  6. Variations in large-scale tropical cyclone genesis factors over the western North Pacific in the PMIP3 last millennium simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Qing; Wei, Ting; Zhang, Zhongshi

    2017-02-01

    Investigation of past tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the Western North Pacific (WNP) is potentially helpful to enable better understanding of future TC behaviors. In this study, we examine variations in large-scale environmental factors important to TC genesis in the last millennium simulations from the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (PMIP3). The results show that potential intensity, a theoretical prediction of the maximum TC intensity, is increased relative to the last millennium in the north part of the WNP in the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA; 950-1200 AD) while it is decreased in the Little Ice Age (LIA; 1600-1850 AD). Vertical wind shear that generally inhibits TC genesis is enhanced (reduced) to the south of 20°N and is reduced (enhanced) to the north in the MCA (LIA). Relative humidity (at 600 hPa) that measures the mid-tropospheric moisture content broadly shows an increase (decrease) in the MCA (LIA). A genesis potential index indicates that conditions are generally favorable (unfavorable) for TC formation in the WNP in the MCA (LIA), especially in the northern part. Taking changes in steering flows into account, there may be an increasing (decreasing) favorability for storm strikes in East Asia in the MCA (LIA). The estimated TC activity is consistent with the geological proxies in Japan, but contradicts with the typhoon records in southern China and Taiwan. This model-data discrepancy is attributed to the limitations in both simulations and reconstructions.

  7. Modeling and Simulation of Low Voltage Arcs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ghezzi, L.; Balestrero, A.

    2010-01-01

    Modeling and Simulation of Low Voltage Arcs is an attempt to improve the physical understanding, mathematical modeling and numerical simulation of the electric arcs that are found during current interruptions in low voltage circuit breakers. An empirical description is gained by refined electrical

  8. Modeling and Simulation of Low Voltage Arcs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ghezzi, L.; Balestrero, A.

    2010-01-01

    Modeling and Simulation of Low Voltage Arcs is an attempt to improve the physical understanding, mathematical modeling and numerical simulation of the electric arcs that are found during current interruptions in low voltage circuit breakers. An empirical description is gained by refined electrical m

  9. Whole-building Hygrothermal Simulation Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rode, Carsten; Grau, Karl

    2003-01-01

    An existing integrated simulation tool for dynamic thermal simulation of building was extended with a transient model for moisture release and uptake in building materials. Validation of the new model was begun with comparison against measurements in an outdoor test cell furnished with single mat...

  10. Impacts of SST Warming in tropical Indian Ocean on CMIP5 model-projected summer rainfall changes over Central Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Yong; Zhang, Huqiang

    2016-05-01

    Based on the historical and RCP8.5 experiments from 25 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models, the impacts of sea surface temperature (SST) warming in the tropical Indian Ocean (IO) on the projected change in summer rainfall over Central Asia (CA) are investigated. The analysis is designed to answer three questions: (1) Can CMIP5 models reproduce the observed influence of the IO sea surface temperatures (SSTs) on the CA rainfall variations and the associated dynamical processes? (2) How well do the models agree on their projected rainfall changes over CA under warmed climate? (3) How much of the uncertainty in such rainfall projections is due to different impacts of IO SSTs in these models? The historical experiments show that in most models summer rainfall over CA are positively correlated to the SSTs in the IO. Furthermore, for models with higher rainfall-SSTs correlations, the dynamical processes accountable for such impacts are much closer to what have been revealed in observational data: warmer SSTs tend to favor the development of anti-cyclonic circulation patterns at low troposphere over north and northwest of the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal. These anomalous circulation patterns correspond to significantly enhanced southerly flow which carries warm and moisture air mass from the IO region up to the northeast. At the same time, there is a cyclonic flow over the central and eastern part of the CA which further brings the tropical moisture into the CA and provides essential moist conditions for its rainfall generation. In the second half of twenty-first century, although all the 25 models simulate warmed SSTs, significant uncertainty exists in their projected rainfall changes over CA: half of them suggest summer rainfall increases, but the other half project rainfall decreases. However, when we select seven models out of the 25 based on their skills in capturing the dynamical processes as observed, then the model projected changes

  11. SST and North American Tropical Cyclone Landfall: A Statistical Modeling Study

    CERN Document Server

    Hall, Timothy

    2008-01-01

    We employ a statistical model of North Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) tracks to investigate the relationship between sea-surface temperature (SST) and North American TC landfall rates. The track model is conditioned on summer SST in the tropical North Atlantic being in either the 19 hottest or the 19 coldest years in the period 1950-2005. For each conditioning many synthetic TCs are generated and landfall rates computed. Compared to direct analysis of historical landfall, the track model reduces the sampling error by projecting information from the entire basin onto the coast. There are 46% more TCs in hot years than cold in the model, which is highly significant compared to random sampling and corroborates well documented trends in North Atlantic TC number in recent decades. In the absence of other effects, this difference results in a significant increase in model landfall rates in hot years, uniform along the coast. Hot-cold differences in the geographic distribution of genesis and in TC propagation do not...

  12. APPRAISAL OF THE SNAP MODEL FOR PREDICTING NITROGEN MINERALIZATION IN TROPICAL SOILS UNDER EUCALYPTUS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philip James Smethurst

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available The Soil Nitrogen Availability Predictor (SNAP model predicts daily and annual rates of net N mineralization (NNM based on daily weather measurements, daily predictions of soil water and soil temperature, and on temperature and moisture modifiers obtained during aerobic incubation (basal rate. The model was based on in situ measurements of NNM in Australian soils under temperate climate. The purpose of this study was to assess this model for use in tropical soils under eucalyptus plantations in São Paulo State, Brazil. Based on field incubations for one month in three, NNM rates were measured at 11 sites (0-20 cm layer for 21 months. The basal rate was determined in in situ incubations during moist and warm periods (January to March. Annual rates of 150-350 kg ha-1 yr-1 NNM predicted by the SNAP model were reasonably accurate (R2 = 0.84. In other periods, at lower moisture and temperature, NNM rates were overestimated. Therefore, if used carefully, the model can provide adequate predictions of annual NNM and may be useful in practical applications. For NNM predictions for shorter periods than a year or under suboptimal incubation conditions, the temperature and moisture modifiers need to be recalibrated for tropical conditions.

  13. A model inter-comparison study to examine limiting factors in modelling Australian tropical savannas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Whitley

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Savanna ecosystems are one of the most dominant and complex terrestrial biomes that derives from a distinct vegetative surface comprised of co-dominant tree and grass populations. While these two vegetation types co-exist functionally, demographically they are not static, but are dynamically changing in response to environmental forces such as annual fire events and rainfall variability. Modelling savanna environments with the current generation of terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs has presented many problems, particularly describing fire frequency and intensity, phenology, leaf biochemistry of C3 and C4 photosynthesis vegetation, and root water uptake. In order to better understand why TBMs perform so poorly in savannas, we conducted a model inter-comparison of 6 TBMs and assessed their performance at simulating latent energy (LE and gross primary productivity (GPP for five savanna sites along a rainfall gradient in northern Australia. Performance in predicting LE and GPP was measured using an empirical benchmarking system, which ranks models by their ability to utilise meteorological driving information to predict the fluxes. On average, the TBMs performed as well as a multi-linear regression of the fluxes against solar radiation, temperature and vapour pressure deficit, but were outperformed by a more complicated nonlinear response model that also included the leaf area index (LAI. This identified that the TBMs are not fully utilising their input information effectively in determining savanna LE and GPP, and highlights that savanna dynamics cannot be calibrated into models and that there are problems in underlying model processes. We identified key weaknesses in a model's ability to simulate savanna fluxes and their seasonal variation, related to the representation of vegetation by the models and root water uptake. We underline these weaknesses in terms of three critical areas for development. First, prescribed tree-rooting depths must be

  14. A model inter-comparison study to examine limiting factors in modelling Australian tropical savannas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitley, Rhys; Beringer, Jason; Hutley, Lindsay B.; Abramowitz, Gab; De Kauwe, Martin G.; Duursma, Remko; Evans, Bradley; Haverd, Vanessa; Li, Longhui; Ryu, Youngryel; Smith, Benjamin; Wang, Ying-Ping; Williams, Mathew; Yu, Qiang

    2016-06-01

    The savanna ecosystem is one of the most dominant and complex terrestrial biomes, deriving from a distinct vegetative surface comprised of co-dominant tree and grass populations. While these two vegetation types co-exist functionally, demographically they are not static but are dynamically changing in response to environmental forces such as annual fire events and rainfall variability. Modelling savanna environments with the current generation of terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) has presented many problems, particularly describing fire frequency and intensity, phenology, leaf biochemistry of C3 and C4 photosynthesis vegetation, and root-water uptake. In order to better understand why TBMs perform so poorly in savannas, we conducted a model inter-comparison of six TBMs and assessed their performance at simulating latent energy (LE) and gross primary productivity (GPP) for five savanna sites along a rainfall gradient in northern Australia. Performance in predicting LE and GPP was measured using an empirical benchmarking system, which ranks models by their ability to utilise meteorological driving information to predict the fluxes. On average, the TBMs performed as well as a multi-linear regression of the fluxes against solar radiation, temperature and vapour pressure deficit but were outperformed by a more complicated nonlinear response model that also included the leaf area index (LAI). This identified that the TBMs are not fully utilising their input information effectively in determining savanna LE and GPP and highlights that savanna dynamics cannot be calibrated into models and that there are problems in underlying model processes. We identified key weaknesses in a model's ability to simulate savanna fluxes and their seasonal variation, related to the representation of vegetation by the models and root-water uptake. We underline these weaknesses in terms of three critical areas for development. First, prescribed tree-rooting depths must be deep enough

  15. Specific and generic stem biomass and volume models of tree species in a West African tropical semi-deciduous forest

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Goussanou, Cédric A.; Guendehou, Sabin; Assogbadjo, Achille E.

    2016-01-01

    The quantification of the contribution of tropical forests to global carbon stocks and climate change mitigation requires availability of data and tools such as allometric equations. This study made available volume and biomass models for eighteen tree species in a semi-deciduous tropical forest...... in West Africa. Generic models were also developed for the forest ecosystem, and basic wood density determined for the tree species. Non-destructive sampling approach was carried out on five hundred and one sample trees to analyse stem volume and biomass. From the modelling of volume and biomass...... predictive ability for biomass. Given tree species richness of tropical forests, the study demonstrated the hypothesis that species-specific models are preferred to generic models, and concluded that further research should be oriented towards development of specific models to cover the full range...

  16. Simulation of the transfer of hydrocarbons in unconfined aquifer in tropical zone: the case of benzene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agnès Kouamé, Amenan; Jaboyedoff, Michel; Derron, Marc-Henri; Kouamé, Kan Jean

    2016-04-01

    Groundwater is the largest global reserves of continental freshwater (Bosca, 2002) and also an important source of drinking water in many parts of the world (Brassington. 2007). However, this resource is today threatened by pollution such as inadequate supply of drinking water services, inaccessibility and / or dilapidated sanitation facilities and excessive use fertilizers, and industrial wastewater and solid waste pesticides (Boubacar, 2010) and the rapid urbanization in great cities (Foster, 2001). Abidjan, the largest city in Côte d'Ivoire is also facing pollution problems such as illegal dumping of waste, waste oil spilled garages, land application of domestic and industrial wastewater, automotive workshops, overexploitation of sand in the Ebrié lagoon, open waste dump of Akouédo and the spill of about 400,000 liters of toxic waste from the ship "Probo Koala" in August 2006. The Abidjan aquifer or the Continental terminal aquifer is the main source of supply drinking water. It is mainly composed of sandy and it is an unconfined aquifer as a whole (Jourda, 1987). According to Gilli and al., (2012), the recharge of unconfined aquifers comes mostly from the infiltration of surface water including rainwater. These waters on their transport in the basement could carry certain pollutants into groundwater. Kouamé (2007) reports a potential groundwater pollution of the "Continental terminal" aquifer in Abidjan. In addition to the cases cited pollution, there has been a proliferation of service stations in the district of Abidjan and this can cause possible pollution. We deemed it necessary to conduct a study on the groundwater pollution of Abidjan by oil in general. We chose benzene to simulate organic pollution in case of accident. To observe the likely evolution of such contaminants in the subsurface, we developed hydrogeological models that couple groundwater flow and benzene transport with FEFLOW software in steady and transient states. The models are composed

  17. Whole-building Hygrothermal Simulation Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rode, Carsten; Grau, Karl

    2003-01-01

    An existing integrated simulation tool for dynamic thermal simulation of building was extended with a transient model for moisture release and uptake in building materials. Validation of the new model was begun with comparison against measurements in an outdoor test cell furnished with single...... materials. Almost quasi-steady, cyclic experiments were used to compare the indoor humidity variation and the numerical results of the integrated simulation tool with the new moisture model. Except for the case with chipboard as furnishing, the predictions of indoor humidity with the detailed model were...

  18. Simulation model of metallurgical production management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Šnapka

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available This article is focused to the problems of the metallurgical production process intensification. The aim is the explaining of simulation model which presents metallurgical production management system adequated to new requirements. The knowledge of a dynamic behavior and features of metallurgical production system and its management are needed to this model creation. Characteristics which determine the dynamics of metallurgical production process are characterized. Simulation model is structured as functional blocks and their linkages with regard to organizational and temporal hierarchy of their actions. The creation of presented simulation model is based on theoretical findings of regulation, hierarchical systems and optimization.

  19. Simulation modeling for the health care manager.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kennedy, Michael H

    2009-01-01

    This article addresses the use of simulation software to solve administrative problems faced by health care managers. Spreadsheet add-ins, process simulation software, and discrete event simulation software are available at a range of costs and complexity. All use the Monte Carlo method to realistically integrate probability distributions into models of the health care environment. Problems typically addressed by health care simulation modeling are facility planning, resource allocation, staffing, patient flow and wait time, routing and transportation, supply chain management, and process improvement.

  20. Scaling statistics in a critical, nonlinear physical model of tropical oceanic rainfall

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. M. Nordstrom

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available Over the last two decades, concepts of scale invariance have come to the fore in both modeling and data analysis in hydrological precipitation research. With the advent of the use of the multiplicative random cascade model, these concepts have become increasingly more important. However, unifying this statistical view of the phenomenon with the physics of rainfall has proven to be a rather nontrivial task. In this paper, we present a simple model, developed entirely from qualitative physical arguments, without invoking any statistical assumptions, to represent tropical atmospheric convection over the ocean. The model is analyzed numerically. It shows that the data from the model rainfall look very spiky, as if generated from a random field model. They look qualitatively similar to real rainfall data sets from Global Atmospheric Research Program (GARP Atlantic Tropical Experiment (GATE. A critical point is found in a model parameter corresponding to the Convective Inhibition (CIN, at which rainfall changes abruptly from non-zero to a uniform zero value over the entire domain. Near the critical value of this parameter, the model rainfall field exhibits multifractal scaling determined from a fractional wetted area analysis and a moment scaling analysis. It therefore must exhibit long-range spatial correlations at this point, a situation qualitatively similar to that shown by multiplicative random cascade models and GATE rainfall data sets analyzed previously (Over and Gupta, 1994; Over, 1995. However, the scaling exponents associated with the model data are different from those estimated with real data. This comparison identifies a new theoretical framework for testing diverse physical hypotheses governing rainfall based in empirically observed scaling statistics.

  1. Scaling statistics in a critical, nonlinear physical model of tropical oceanic rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nordstrom, K. M.; Gupta, V. K.

    Over the last two decades, concepts of scale invariance have come to the fore in both modeling and data analysis in hydrological precipitation research. With the advent of the use of the multiplicative random cascade model, these concepts have become increasingly more important. However, unifying this statistical view of the phenomenon with the physics of rainfall has proven to be a rather nontrivial task. In this paper, we present a simple model, developed entirely from qualitative physical arguments, without invoking any statistical assumptions, to represent tropical atmospheric convection over the ocean. The model is analyzed numerically. It shows that the data from the model rainfall look very spiky, as if generated from a random field model. They look qualitatively similar to real rainfall data sets from Global Atmospheric Research Program (GARP) Atlantic Tropical Experiment (GATE). A critical point is found in a model parameter corresponding to the Convective Inhibition (CIN), at which rainfall changes abruptly from non-zero to a uniform zero value over the entire domain. Near the critical value of this parameter, the model rainfall field exhibits multifractal scaling determined from a fractional wetted area analysis and a moment scaling analysis. It therefore must exhibit long-range spatial correlations at this point, a situation qualitatively similar to that shown by multiplicative random cascade models and GATE rainfall data sets analyzed previously (Over and Gupta, 1994; Over, 1995). However, the scaling exponents associated with the model data are different from those estimated with real data. This comparison identifies a new theoretical framework for testing diverse physical hypotheses governing rainfall based in empirically observed scaling statistics.

  2. Warehouse Simulation Through Model Configuration

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verriet, J.H.; Hamberg, R.; Caarls, J.; Wijngaarden, B. van

    2013-01-01

    The pre-build development of warehouse systems leads from a specific customer request to a specific customer quotation. This involves a process of configuring a warehouse system using a sequence of steps that contain increasingly more details. Simulation is a helpful tool in analyzing warehouse desi

  3. Modeling and Simulation of M