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Sample records for model simulated tropical

  1. Polarized microwave forward model simulations for tropical storm ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    microwave remote sensing of precipitation sys- tems largely depends on the forward radiative transfer model (Petty 2001), which are themselves based on some assumptions and hence are never perfect. The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission. (TRMM) satellite was designed to measure preci- pitation with high resolution ...

  2. Towards Direct Simulation of Future Tropical Cyclone Statistics in a High-Resolution Global Atmospheric Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael F. Wehner

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available We present a set of high-resolution global atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM simulations focusing on the model's ability to represent tropical storms and their statistics. We find that the model produces storms of hurricane strength with realistic dynamical features. We also find that tropical storm statistics are reasonable, both globally and in the north Atlantic, when compared to recent observations. The sensitivity of simulated tropical storm statistics to increases in sea surface temperature (SST is also investigated, revealing that a credible late 21st century SST increase produced increases in simulated tropical storm numbers and intensities in all ocean basins. While this paper supports previous high-resolution model and theoretical findings that the frequency of very intense storms will increase in a warmer climate, it differs notably from previous medium and high-resolution model studies that show a global reduction in total tropical storm frequency. However, we are quick to point out that this particular model finding remains speculative due to a lack of radiative forcing changes in our time-slice experiments as well as a focus on the Northern hemisphere tropical storm seasons.

  3. The Tropical Subseasonal Variability Simulated in the NASA GISS General Circulation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Daehyun; Sobel, Adam H.; DelGenio, Anthony D.; Chen, Yonghua; Camargo, Suzana J.; Yao, Mao-Sung; Kelley, Maxwell; Nazarenko, Larissa

    2012-01-01

    The tropical subseasonal variability simulated by the Goddard Institute for Space Studies general circulation model, Model E2, is examined. Several versions of Model E2 were developed with changes to the convective parameterization in order to improve the simulation of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO). When the convective scheme is modified to have a greater fractional entrainment rate, Model E2 is able to simulate MJO-like disturbances with proper spatial and temporal scales. Increasing the rate of rain reevaporation has additional positive impacts on the simulated MJO. The improvement in MJO simulation comes at the cost of increased biases in the mean state, consistent in structure and amplitude with those found in other GCMs when tuned to have a stronger MJO. By reinitializing a relatively poor-MJO version with restart files from a relatively better-MJO version, a series of 30-day integrations is constructed to examine the impacts of the parameterization changes on the organization of tropical convection. The poor-MJO version with smaller entrainment rate has a tendency to allow convection to be activated over a broader area and to reduce the contrast between dry and wet regimes so that tropical convection becomes less organized. Besides the MJO, the number of tropical-cyclone-like vortices simulated by the model is also affected by changes in the convection scheme. The model simulates a smaller number of such storms globally with a larger entrainment rate, while the number increases significantly with a greater rain reevaporation rate.

  4. Tropical Cyclone Formation in 30-day Simulation Using Cloud-System-Resolving Global Nonhydrostatic Model (NICAM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yanase, W.; Satoh, M.; Iga, S.; Tomita, H.

    2007-12-01

    We are developing an icosahedral-grid non-hydrostatic AGCM, which can explicitly represent cumulus or meso-scale convection over the entire globe. We named the model NICAM (Nonhydrostatic ICosahedral Atmospheric Model). On 2005, we have performed a simulations with horizontal grid intervals of 14, 7 and 3.5 km using realistic topography and sea surface temperature in April 2004 (Miura et al., 2007; GRL). It simulated a typhoon Sudal that actually developed over the Northwestern Pacific in 2004. In the present study, the NICAM model with the horizontal grid interval of 14 km was used for perpetual July experiment with 30 forecasting days. In this simulation, several tropical cyclones formed over the wesetern and eastern North Pacific, althought the formation over the western North Pacific occured a little further north to the actually observed region. The mature tropical cyclones with intense wind speed had a structure of a cloud-free eye and eye wall. We have found that the enviromental parameters associated with the tropical cyclone genesis explain well the simulated region of tropical cyclone generation. Over the North Atlantic and eastern North Pacific, westward-moving disturbances like African wave are simulated, which seems to be related to the cyclone formation over the eastern North Pacific. On the other hand, the simulated tropical cyclones over the western North Pacifis seem to form by different factors as has been suggested by the previous studies based on observation. Although the model still has some problems and is under continuous improvement, we can discuss what dynamics is to be represented using a global high-resolution model.

  5. Comparison of tropical cyclogenesis processes in climate model and cloud-resolving model simulations using moist static energy budget analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wing, Allison; Camargo, Suzana; Sobel, Adam; Kim, Daehyun; Murakami, Hiroyuki; Reed, Kevin; Vecchi, Gabriel; Wehner, Michael; Zarzycki, Colin; Zhao, Ming

    2017-04-01

    In recent years, climate models have improved such that high-resolution simulations are able to reproduce the climatology of tropical cyclone activity with some fidelity and show some skill in seasonal forecasting. However biases remain in many models, motivating a better understanding of what factors control the representation of tropical cyclone activity in climate models. We explore the tropical cyclogenesis processes in five high-resolution climate models, including both coupled and uncoupled configurations. Our analysis framework focuses on how convection, moisture, clouds and related processes are coupled and employs budgets of column moist static energy and the spatial variance of column moist static energy. The latter was originally developed to study the mechanisms of tropical convective organization in idealized cloud-resolving models, and allows us to quantify the different feedback processes responsible for the amplification of moist static energy anomalies associated with the organization of convection and cyclogenesis. We track the formation and evolution of tropical cyclones in the climate model simulations and apply our analysis both along the individual tracks and composited over many tropical cyclones. We then compare the genesis processes; in particular, the role of cloud-radiation interactions, to those of spontaneous tropical cyclogenesis in idealized cloud-resolving model simulations.

  6. Numerical simulation of tropical-temperate troughs over Southern Africa using the CSU RAMS model

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Van den Heever, SC

    1997-08-01

    Full Text Available ) and the wet (1981) late summer case studies has been examined. Model simulations reveal that the tropical-temperate troughs form when an upper westerly wave coincides with an easterly, wave or depression in lower levels. These systems occur preferentially over...

  7. The Impact of Canonical and Non-canonical El Niño on Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity: High-resolution Tropical Channel Model Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patricola, C. M.; Chang, P.; Saravanan, R.

    2013-12-01

    Tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) variability during the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences seasonal Atlantic tropical cyclone activity by modulating vertical wind shear and tropospheric temperature in the tropical Atlantic, with warmer than average SST during El Niño suppressing Atlantic tropical cyclones. The location of maximum SST warming during El Niño varies from the East Pacific (canonical) to Central Pacific (non-canonical/Modoki). This study investigates how the location and magnitude of maximum tropical Pacific warming impacts Atlantic tropical cyclones, and through what mechanisms. Climate simulations are performed to supplement observationally based studies, which yield conflicting results and rely on a relatively short data record that is complicated by factors other than ENSO, such as Atlantic SST variability. The simulations are run with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model configured as a tropical channel model at a relatively fine horizontal resolution of 27 km compared to the current generation of global climate models that typically use a 50 - 100 km grid. Monthly climatological SST is prescribed in the control simulation, and mechanistic experiments are forced by tropical Pacific SST patterns characteristic of Central Pacific and East Pacific El Niño. Seasonal accumulated cyclone energy is used to evaluate the response in Atlantic tropical cyclone activity to Central and East Pacific El Niño, and the response in atmospheric conditions relevant for tropical cyclones is diagnosed using a genesis potential index.

  8. Tropical cyclogenesis in warm climates simulated by a cloud-system resolving model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fedorov, Alexey V.; Muir, Les; Boos, William R.; Studholme, Joshua

    2018-03-01

    Here we investigate tropical cyclogenesis in warm climates, focusing on the effect of reduced equator-to-pole temperature gradient relevant to past equable climates and, potentially, to future climate change. Using a cloud-system resolving model that explicitly represents moist convection, we conduct idealized experiments on a zonally periodic equatorial β-plane stretching from nearly pole-to-pole and covering roughly one-fifth of Earth's circumference. To improve the representation of tropical cyclogenesis and mean climate at a horizontal resolution that would otherwise be too coarse for a cloud-system resolving model (15 km), we use the hypohydrostatic rescaling of the equations of motion, also called reduced acceleration in the vertical. The simulations simultaneously represent the Hadley circulation and the intertropical convergence zone, baroclinic waves in mid-latitudes, and a realistic distribution of tropical cyclones (TCs), all without use of a convective parameterization. Using this model, we study the dependence of TCs on the meridional sea surface temperature gradient. When this gradient is significantly reduced, we find a substantial increase in the number of TCs, including a several-fold increase in the strongest storms of Saffir-Simpson categories 4 and 5. This increase occurs as the mid-latitudes become a new active region of TC formation and growth. When the climate warms we also see convergence between the physical properties and genesis locations of tropical and warm-core extra-tropical cyclones. While end-members of these types of storms remain very distinct, a large distribution of cyclones forming in the subtropics and mid-latitudes share properties of the two.

  9. Sensitivity of tropical convection in cloud-resolving WRF simulations to model physics and forcing procedures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Endo, S.; Lin, W.; Jackson, R. C.; Collis, S. M.; Vogelmann, A. M.; Wang, D.; Oue, M.; Kollias, P.

    2017-12-01

    Tropical convection is one of the main drivers of the climate system and recognized as a major source of uncertainty in climate models. High-resolution modeling is performed with a focus on the deep convection cases during the active monsoon period of the TWP-ICE field campaign to explore ways to improve the fidelity of convection permitting tropical simulations. Cloud resolving model (CRM) simulations are performed with WRF modified to apply flexible configurations for LES/CRM simulations. We have enhanced the capability of the forcing module to test different implementations of large-scale vertical advective forcing, including a function for optional use of large-scale thermodynamic profiles and a function for the condensate advection. The baseline 3D CRM configurations are, following Fridlind et al. (2012), driven by observationally-constrained ARM forcing and tested with diagnosed surface fluxes and fixed sea-surface temperature and prescribed aerosol size distributions. After the spin-up period, the simulations follow the observed precipitation peaks associated with the passages of precipitation systems. Preliminary analysis shows that the simulation is generally not sensitive to the treatment of the large-scale vertical advection of heat and moisture, while more noticeable changes in the peak precipitation rate are produced when thermodynamic profiles above the boundary layer were nudged to the reference profiles from the forcing dataset. The presentation will explore comparisons with observationally-based metrics associated with convective characteristics and examine the model performance with a focus on model physics, doubly-periodic vs. nested configurations, and different forcing procedures/sources. A radar simulator will be used to understand possible uncertainties in radar-based retrievals of convection properties. Fridlind, A. M., et al. (2012), A comparison of TWP-ICE observational data with cloud-resolving model results, J. Geophys. Res., 117, D05204

  10. Assessing the Uncertainty of Tropical Cyclone Simulations in NCAR's Community Atmosphere Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kevin A Reed

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available The paper explores the impact of the initial-data, parameter and structural model uncertainty on the simulation of a tropical cyclone-like vortex in the National Center for Atmospheric Research's (NCAR Community Atmosphere Model (CAM. An analytic technique is used to initialize the model with an idealized weak vortex that develops into a tropical cyclone over ten simulation days. A total of 78 ensemble simulations are performed at horizontal grid spacings of 1.0°, 0.5° and 0.25° using two recently released versions of the model, CAM 4 and CAM 5. The ensemble members represent simulations with random small-amplitude perturbations of the initial conditions, small shifts in the longitudinal position of the initial vortex and runs with slightly altered model parameters. The main distinction between CAM 4 and CAM 5 lies within the physical parameterization suite, and the simulations with both CAM versions at the varying resolutions assess the structural model uncertainty. At all resolutions storms are produced with many tropical cyclone-like characteristics. The CAM 5 simulations exhibit more intense storms than CAM 4 by day 10 at the 0.5° and 0.25° grid spacings, while the CAM 4 storm at 1.0° is stronger. There are also distinct differences in the shapes and vertical profiles of the storms in the two variants of CAM. The ensemble members show no distinction between the initial-data and parameter uncertainty simulations. At day 10 they produce ensemble root-mean-square deviations from an unperturbed control simulation on the order of 1--5 m s-1 for the maximum low-level wind speed and 2--10 hPa for the minimum surface pressure. However, there are large differences between the two CAM versions at identical horizontal resolutions. It suggests that the structural uncertainty is more dominant than the initial-data and parameter uncertainties in this study. The uncertainty among the ensemble members is assessed and quantified.

  11. How Well Do Global Climate Models Simulate the Variability of Atlantic Tropical Cyclones Associated with ENSO?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Hui; Long, Lindsey; Kumar, Arun; Wang, Wanqiu; Schemm, Jae-Kyung E.; Zhao, Ming; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; LaRow, Timorhy E.; Lim, Young-Kwon; Schubert, Siegfried D.; hide

    2013-01-01

    The variability of Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) associated with El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in model simulations is assessed and compared with observations. The model experiments are 28-yr simulations forced with the observed sea surface temperature from 1982 to 2009. The simulations were coordinated by the U.S. CLIVAR Hurricane Working Group and conducted with five global climate models (GCMs) with a total of 16 ensemble members. The model performance is evaluated based on both individual model ensemble means and multi-model ensemble mean. The latter has the highest anomaly correlation (0.86) for the interannual variability of TCs. Previous observational studies show a strong association between ENSO and Atlantic TC activity, as well as distinctions in the TC activities during eastern Pacific (EP) and central Pacific (CP) El Nino events. The analysis of track density and TC origin indicates that each model has different mean biases. Overall, the GCMs simulate the variability of Atlantic TCs well with weaker activity during EP El Nino and stronger activity during La Nina. For CP El Nino, there is a slight increase in the number of TCs as compared with EP El Nino. However, the spatial distribution of track density and TC origin is less consistent among the models. Particularly, there is no indication of increasing TC activity over the U.S. southeast coastal region as in observations. The difference between the models and observations is likely due to the bias of vertical wind shear in response to the shift of tropical heating associated with CP El Nino, as well as the model bias in the mean circulation.

  12. Extrapolating carbon dynamics of tropical dry forests into future climates: improving simulation models with empirical observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medvigy, David; Waring, Bonnie; Vargas, German; Xu, Xiangtao; Smith, Christina; Becknell, Justin; Trierweiler, Annette; Brodribb, Timothy; Powers, Jennifer

    2017-04-01

    Tropical dry forests occur in areas with warm temperatures and a pronounced dry season with little to no rainfall that lasts 3 to 7 months. The potential area covered by this biome is vast: globally, 47% of all forest occurs in tropical and subtropical latitudes, and of all tropical forests approximately 42% are classified as dry forests. Throughout the last several centuries, the area covered by tropical dry forests has been dramatically reduced through conversion to grazing and croplands, and they are now considered the most threatened tropical biome. However, in many regions, tropical dry forests are now growing back. There is growing concern that this recovery process will be strongly impacted by climate variability and change. Observations show that climate is changing in the seasonal tropics, and climate models forecast that neotropical dry forests will receive significantly less rainfall in the 21st century than in the 20th century. Rates of nitrogen deposition are also changing rapidly in this sector, and the fertility of some soils may still be recovering from past land use. We are engaged in several efforts to understand how water and nutrients limit the productivity of these forests, including manipulative experiments, modeling, and investigation of responses to natural climate variability. In 2015, at a well-characterized site in Guanacaste, Costa Rica, we established a full-factorial fertilization experiment with N and P in diverse mature forest stands. Initial responses highlight stronger ecosystem sensitivity to P addition than to N addition. Intriguingly, pre-experiment numerical simulations with a mechanistic ecosystem model had indicated the reverse. Work is ongoing to use field observations to better represent critical processes in the model, and ultimately to improve the model's sensitivity to nutrients and water. In addition, in 2016, we established a full factorial nutrient addition and drought experiment in plantations. Thus far, soil

  13. Conditional Stochastic Models in Reduced Space: Towards Efficient Simulation of Tropical Cyclone Precipitation Patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dodov, B.

    2017-12-01

    Stochastic simulation of realistic and statistically robust patterns of Tropical Cyclone (TC) induced precipitation is a challenging task. It is even more challenging in a catastrophe modeling context, where tens of thousands of typhoon seasons need to be simulated in order to provide a complete view of flood risk. Ultimately, one could run a coupled global climate model and regional Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model, but this approach is not feasible in the catastrophe modeling context and, most importantly, may not provide TC track patterns consistent with observations. Rather, we propose to leverage NWP output for the observed TC precipitation patterns (in terms of downscaled reanalysis 1979-2015) collected on a Lagrangian frame along the historical TC tracks and reduced to the leading spatial principal components of the data. The reduced data from all TCs is then grouped according to timing, storm evolution stage (developing, mature, dissipating, ETC transitioning) and central pressure and used to build a dictionary of stationary (within a group) and non-stationary (for transitions between groups) covariance models. Provided that the stochastic storm tracks with all the parameters describing the TC evolution are already simulated, a sequence of conditional samples from the covariance models chosen according to the TC characteristics at a given moment in time are concatenated, producing a continuous non-stationary precipitation pattern in a Lagrangian framework. The simulated precipitation for each event is finally distributed along the stochastic TC track and blended with a non-TC background precipitation using a data assimilation technique. The proposed framework provides means of efficient simulation (10000 seasons simulated in a couple of days) and robust typhoon precipitation patterns consistent with observed regional climate and visually undistinguishable from high resolution NWP output. The framework is used to simulate a catalog of 10000 typhoon

  14. Comparison of Explicitly Simulated and Downscaled Tropical Cyclone Activity in a High-Resolution Global Climate Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hirofumi Tomita

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The response of tropical cyclone activity to climate change is a matter of great inherent interest and practical importance. Most current global climate models are not, however, capable of adequately resolving tropical cyclones; this has led to the development of downscaling techniques designed to infer tropical cyclone activity from the large-scale fields produced by climate models. Here we compare the statistics of tropical cyclones simulated explicitly in a very high resolution (~14 km grid mesh global climate model to the results of one such downscaling technique driven by the same global model. This is done for a simulation of the current climate and also for a simulation of a climate warmed by the addition of carbon dioxide. The explicitly simulated and downscaled storms are similarly distributed in space, but the intensity distribution of the downscaled events has a somewhat longer high-intensity tail, owing to the higher resolution of the downscaling model. Both explicitly simulated and downscaled events show large increases in the frequency of events at the high-intensity ends of their respective intensity distributions, but the downscaled storms also show increases in low-intensity events, whereas the explicitly simulated weaker events decline in number. On the regional scale, there are large differences in the responses of the explicitly simulated and downscaled events to global warming. In particular, the power dissipation of downscaled events shows a 175% increase in the Atlantic, while the power dissipation of explicitly simulated events declines there.

  15. Climate Model Simulations of Tropical and Polar Stratospheric Aerosol Injection: Cooling but Drought

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robock, A.; Oman, L.; Stenchikov, G.

    2007-12-01

    In response to the global warming problem, there has been a recent renewed call for geoengineering "solutions" involving injecting particles into the stratosphere or blocking sunlight with satellites between the Sun and Earth. Here we describe different proposed geoengineering designs, and then show climate model calculations with the coupled atmosphere-ocean NASA GISS ModelE GCM that evaluate both their efficacy and their possible adverse consequences. We conduct experiments by simulating global warming with and without continuous emissions of sulfate aerosol precursors both into the tropical lower stratosphere and into the high latitude Northern Hemisphere lower stratosphere. We find that while stratospheric aerosols can cool the planet on a global average basis with tropical emissions or cool the Northern Hemisphere with high latitude emissions, there are also large regional climate changes in temperature and precipitation, with large areas of drought. At the current level of understanding, there are too many potential problems with geoengineering, and it would be much cheaper and easier to solve the global warming problem by reducing greenhouse gas emissions. These problems include cost, continued ocean acidification, obtaining global agreement on the optimum climate, regional climate changes, ozone depletion, reduction of solar energy for power generation, and unexpected consequences.

  16. The Next-Generation Goddard Convective-Stratiform Heating Algorithm: New Model Simulations for Tropical and Continental Summertime Environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lang, S. E.; Tao, W. K.; Wu, D.

    2016-12-01

    The Goddard Convective-Stratiform Heating (or CSH) algorithm is used to retrieve estimates of cloud heating over the global Tropics using TRMM rainfall data and a set of look-up-tables (LUTs) derived from a series of multi-week cloud-resolving model (CRM) simulations using the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble model (or GCE). These simulations link satellite observables (i.e., surface rainfall and stratiform fraction) with cloud heating profiles, which are not directly observable. The strength of the algorithm relies in part on the representativeness of the simulations; more realistic simulations provide a stronger link between the observables and simulated heating profiles. The current "TRMM" version of the CSH algorithm relies on 2D GCE simulations using an improved version of the Goddard 3-class ice scheme (3ICE), a moderate-sized domain, and 1-km horizontal resolution. Updating the LUTs, which are suitable for tropical and continental summertime environments requires new, more realistic GCE simulations. New simulations are performed using a new, improved 4-class ice scheme, which has been shown to outperform the 3ICE scheme, especially for intense convection. Additional grid configurations are also tested and evaluated to find the best overall setup to for re-deriving and updating the CSH tropical/summertime LUTs.

  17. Study of tropical clouds feedback to a climate warming as simulated by climate models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brient, Florent

    2012-01-01

    amplitude of cloud feedback is proportional to the cloud cooling effect in the present climate. This effect is influenced by uncertain parameters of model physics which modify intensity of the positive β feedback between cloud radiative cooling, relative humidity and cloud fraction (self-maintenance of low clouds) In order to assess the generality of this feedback mechanism, we perform among several atmospheric CMIP5 models. Those models simulate a robust positive tropical low cloud feedback. The use of seasonal variability to anticipate amplitudes of low-cloud response under global warming, and to design an observational test for their evaluation will be discussed. (author)

  18. Tropical paleoclimates at the last glacial maximum: comparison of paleoclimate modeling intercomparison project (PMIP) simulations and paleodata

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pinot, S.; Ramstein, G.; Joussaume, S. [CEA-CNRS, Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette (France). Lab. des Sci. du Climat et de l' Environnement; Harrison, S.P.; Prentice, I.C. [Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Postfach 10 01 64, D-07701 Jena (Germany); Guiot, J. [Laboratoire de Botanique Historique et Palynologie, Faculte de St Jerome, Marseille (France); Stute, M. [Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, NY 10964 (United States)

    1999-11-04

    Seventeen simulations of the last glacial maximum (LGM) climate have been performed using atmospheric general circulation models (AGCM) in the framework of the paleoclimate modeling intercomparison project (PMIP). These simulations use the boundary conditions for CO{sub 2}, insolation and ice-sheets; surface temperatures (SSTs) are either (a) prescribed using CLIMAP data set (eight models) or (b) computed by coupling the AGCM with a slab ocean (nine models). The present-day (PD) tropical climate is correctly depicted by all the models, except the coarser resolution models, and the simulated geographical distribution of annual mean temperature is in good agreement with climatology. Tropical cooling at the LGM is less than at middle and high latitudes, but greatly exceeds the PD temperature variability. The LGM simulations with prescribed SSTs underestimate the observed temperature changes except over equatorial Africa where the models produce a temperature decrease consistent with the data. Our results confirm previous analyses showing that CLIMAP (1981) SSTs only produce a weak terrestrial cooling. When SSTs are computed, the models depict a cooling over the Pacific and Indian oceans in contrast with CLIMAP and most models produce cooler temperatures over land. Moreover four of the nine simulations, produce a cooling in good agreement with terrestrial data. Two of these model results over ocean are consistent with new SST reconstructions whereas two models simulate a homogeneous cooling. Finally, the LGM aridity inferred for most of the tropics from the data, is globally reproduced by the models with a strong underestimation for models using computed SSTs. (orig.)

  19. A comparison of PMIP2 model simulations and the MARGO proxy reconstruction for tropical sea surface temperatures at last glacial maximum

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.; Brady, E.C. [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate and Global Dynamics Division, Boulder, CO (United States); Schneider, Ralph; Weinelt, M. [Christian-Albrechts Universitaet, Institut fuer Geowissenschaften, Kiel (Germany); Kucera, M. [Eberhard-Karls Universitaet Tuebingen, Institut fuer Geowissenschaften, Tuebingen (Germany); Abe-Ouchi, A. [The University of Tokyo, Center for Climate System Research, Kashiwa (Japan); Bard, E. [CEREGE, College de France, CNRS, Universite Aix-Marseille, Aix-en-Provence (France); Braconnot, P.; Kageyama, M.; Marti, O.; Waelbroeck, C. [Unite mixte CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l' Environnement, Gif-sur-Yvette Cedex (France); Crucifix, M. [Universite Catholique de Louvain, Institut d' Astronomie et de Geophysique Georges Lemaitre, Louvain-la-Neuve (Belgium); Hewitt, C.D. [Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter (United Kingdom); Paul, A. [Bremen University, Department of Geosciences, Bremen (Germany); Rosell-Mele, A. [Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona, ICREA and Institut de Ciencia i Tecnologia Ambientals, Barcelona (Spain); Weber, S.L. [Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt (Netherlands); Yu, Y. [Chinese Academy of Sciences, LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Beijing (China)

    2009-05-15

    Results from multiple model simulations are used to understand the tropical sea surface temperature (SST) response to the reduced greenhouse gas concentrations and large continental ice sheets of the last glacial maximum (LGM). We present LGM simulations from the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project, Phase 2 (PMIP2) and compare these simulations to proxy data collated and harmonized within the Multiproxy Approach for the Reconstruction of the Glacial Ocean Surface Project (MARGO). Five atmosphere-ocean coupled climate models (AOGCMs) and one coupled model of intermediate complexity have PMIP2 ocean results available for LGM. The models give a range of tropical (defined for this paper as 15 S-15 N) SST cooling of 1.0-2.4 C, comparable to the MARGO estimate of annual cooling of 1.7{+-}1 C. The models simulate greater SST cooling in the tropical Atlantic than tropical Pacific, but interbasin and intrabasin variations of cooling are much smaller than those found in the MARGO reconstruction. The simulated tropical coolings are relatively insensitive to season, a feature also present in the MARGO transferred-based estimates calculated from planktonic foraminiferal assemblages for the Indian and Pacific Oceans. These assemblages indicate seasonality in cooling in the Atlantic basin, with greater cooling in northern summer than northern winter, not captured by the model simulations. Biases in the simulations of the tropical upwelling and thermocline found in the preindustrial control simulations remain for the LGM simulations and are partly responsible for the more homogeneous spatial and temporal LGM tropical cooling simulated by the models. The PMIP2 LGM simulations give estimates for the climate sensitivity parameter of 0.67 -0.83 C per Wm{sup -2}, which translates to equilibrium climate sensitivity for doubling of atmospheric CO{sub 2} of 2.6-3.1 C. (orig.)

  20. An examination of two pathways to tropical cyclogenesis occurring in idealized simulations with a cloud-resolving numerical model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. E. Nicholls

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Simulations are conducted with a cloud-resolving numerical model to examine the transformation of a weak incipient mid-level cyclonic vortex into a tropical cyclone. Results demonstrate that two distinct pathways are possible and that development along a particular pathway is sensitive to model physics and initial conditions. One pathway involves a steady increase of the surface winds to tropical cyclone strength as the radius of maximum winds gradually decreases. A notable feature of this evolution is the creation of small-scale lower tropospheric cyclonic vorticity anomalies by deep convective towers and subsequent merger and convergence by the low-level secondary circulation. The second pathway also begins with a strengthening low-level circulation, but eventually a significantly stronger mid-level circulation develops. Cyclogenesis occurs subsequently when a small-scale surface concentrated vortex forms abruptly near the center of the larger-scale circulation. The small-scale vortex is warm core throughout the troposphere and results in a fall in local surface pressure of a few millibars. It usually develops rapidly, undergoing a modest growth to form a small tropical cyclone. Many of the simulated systems approach or reach tropical cyclone strength prior to development of a prominent mid-level vortex so that the subsequent formation of a strong small-scale surface concentrated vortex in these cases could be considered intensification rather than genesis. Experiments are performed to investigate the dependence on the inclusion of the ice phase, radiation, the size and strength of the incipient mid-level vortex, the amount of moisture present in the initial vortex, and the sea surface temperature. Notably, as the sea surface temperature is raised, the likelihood of development along the second pathway is increased. This appears to be related to an increased production of ice. The sensitivity of the pathway taken to model physics and initial

  1. A raining simulation model for the volcanic tropical island of Tahiti

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aureau, M.; Chretien, A.; Barriot, J.; Haverkamp, R.

    2012-12-01

    Tahiti island is the largest island of French Polynesia, located in the archipelago of the Society island in the southern Pacific Ocean (coordinates: 17°40'S ; 149°25'W). It is a volcanic island with high mountains marking of deep valleys and it has a total land area of 1,045 sq. km. There are four peaks on the island, the tallest of which is Mount Orohena that stands at 7,618 feet above sea level. It has a tropical climate characterized by eastern winds and strong localized rainfalls and two seasons: November to April is the wet season, May to September is the dry season. Rainfalls are often violent and unequally spread over the island. Circular geography of the island allows to know the location of the valleys towards the prevailing winds and to describe accurately the recurring meteorological events. A network of 28 rain measurement stations was set up in the 60s by the French Institute for Research and Development (IRD) and is currently monitored by the hydrologic service of French Polynesia. This data set gives the rainfalls on the entire island of Tahiti. Due to the volcanic topography, statistical methods commonly used to extrapolate rainfalls across an entire region or area, do not apply to this case. Our method is focused on this issue integrating the specific topographic and geographic conditions of a volcanic island. We have divided the island in 5 different areas from topographic data with highest crests being the boundaries. We developed a mathematic model in order to extrapolate data from rain measurement stations located inside each of these areas. Our mathematic model considers three specific criteria: for each unknown point, it considers its location within the area (distance to the closest measurement station), its altitude, and its angle to the dominant winds. Using this model, we were able to describe rainfalls at every point of the island. The time-scale of our model is one day. This model will describe the precipitation variations day after

  2. Using the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Datasets to Evaluate Climate Models in Simulating Diurnal and Seasonal Variations of Tropical Clouds

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Hailong [Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington; Burleyson, Casey D. [Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington; Ma, Po-Lun [Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington; Fast, Jerome D. [Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington; Rasch, Philip J. [Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington

    2018-04-01

    We use the long-term Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) datasets collected at the three Tropical Western Pacific (TWP) sites as a tropical testbed to evaluate the ability of the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM5) to simulate the various types of clouds, their seasonal and diurnal variations, and their impact on surface radiation. We conducted a series of CAM5 simulations at various horizontal grid spacing (around 2°, 1°, 0.5°, and 0.25°) with meteorological constraints from reanalysis. Model biases in the seasonal cycle of cloudiness are found to be weakly dependent on model resolution. Positive biases (up to 20%) in the annual mean total cloud fraction appear mostly in stratiform ice clouds. Higher-resolution simulations do reduce the positive bias in the frequency of ice clouds, but they inadvertently increase the negative biases in convective clouds and low-level liquid clouds, leading to a positive bias in annual mean shortwave fluxes at the sites, as high as 65 W m-2 in the 0.25° simulation. Such resolution-dependent biases in clouds can adversely lead to biases in ambient thermodynamic properties and, in turn, feedback on clouds. Both the CAM5 model and ARM observations show distinct diurnal cycles in total, stratiform and convective cloud fractions; however, they are out-of-phase by 12 hours and the biases vary by site. Our results suggest that biases in deep convection affect the vertical distribution and diurnal cycle of stratiform clouds through the transport of vapor and/or the detrainment of liquid and ice. We also found that the modelled gridmean surface longwave fluxes are systematically larger than site measurements when the grid that the ARM sites reside in is partially covered by ocean. The modeled longwave fluxes at such sites also lack a discernable diurnal cycle because the ocean part of the grid is warmer and less sensitive to radiative heating/cooling compared to land. Higher spatial resolution is more helpful is this regard. Our

  3. Simulating the characteristics of tropical cyclones over the South West Indian Ocean using a Stretched-Grid Global Climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maoyi, Molulaqhooa L.; Abiodun, Babatunde J.; Prusa, Joseph M.; Veitch, Jennifer J.

    2018-03-01

    Tropical cyclones (TCs) are one of the most devastating natural phenomena. This study examines the capability of a global climate model with grid stretching (CAM-EULAG, hereafter CEU) in simulating the characteristics of TCs over the South West Indian Ocean (SWIO). In the study, CEU is applied with a variable increment global grid that has a fine horizontal grid resolution (0.5° × 0.5°) over the SWIO and coarser resolution (1° × 1°—2° × 2.25°) over the rest of the globe. The simulation is performed for the 11 years (1999-2010) and validated against the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) best track data, global precipitation climatology project (GPCP) satellite data, and ERA-Interim (ERAINT) reanalysis. CEU gives a realistic simulation of the SWIO climate and shows some skill in simulating the spatial distribution of TC genesis locations and tracks over the basin. However, there are some discrepancies between the observed and simulated climatic features over the Mozambique channel (MC). Over MC, CEU simulates a substantial cyclonic feature that produces a higher number of TC than observed. The dynamical structure and intensities of the CEU TCs compare well with observation, though the model struggles to produce TCs with a deep pressure centre as low as the observed. The reanalysis has the same problem. The model captures the monthly variation of TC occurrence well but struggles to reproduce the interannual variation. The results of this study have application in improving and adopting CEU for seasonal forecasting over the SWIO.

  4. The ability of general circulation models to simulate tropical cyclones and their precursors over the North Atlantic main development region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Daloz, Anne Sophie; Chauvin, Fabrice [Groupe de Modelisation Grande Echelle et Climat, CNRM-GAME, Meteo-France, Toulouse Cedex 1 (France); Walsh, Kevin [University of Melbourne, School of Earth Sciences, Melbourne, VIC (Australia); Lavender, Sally; Abbs, Deborah [CSIRO Atmospheric and Marine Research, Aspendale, VIC (Australia); Roux, Frank [Universite de Toulouse and Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Laboratoire d' Aerologie, Toulouse (France)

    2012-10-15

    The ability of General Circulation Models (GCMs) to generate Tropical Cyclones (TCs) over the North Atlantic Main Development Region (MDR; 10-20 N, 20-80 W; Goldenberg and Shapiro in J Clim 9:1169-1187, 1996) is examined through a subset of ocean-atmosphere coupled simulations from the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) multimodel data set and a high-resolution (0.5 ) Sea Surface Temperature (SST)-forced simulation from the Australian Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model GCM. The results are compared with National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP-2) and European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts Re-Analysis (ERA-40) reanalyses over a common period from 1980 to 1998. Important biases in the representation of the TC activity are encountered over the MDR. This study emphasizes the strong link in the GCMs between African Easterly Waves (AEWs) and TC activity in this region. However, the generation of AEWs is not a sufficient condition alone for the models to produce TCs. Precipitation over the Sahel, especially rainfall over the Fouta Djallon highlands (cf. Fig. 1), is playing a role in the generation of TCs over the MDR. The influence of large-scale fields such as SST, vertical wind shear and tropospheric humidity on TC genesis is also examined. The ability of TC genesis indices, such as the Genesis Potential Index and the Convective Yearly Genesis Potential, to represent TC activity over the MDR in simulations at low to high spatial resolutions is analysed. These indices are found to be a reasonable method for comparing cyclogenesis in different models, even though other factors such as AEW activity should also be considered. (orig.)

  5. Sensitivity of the tropical stratospheric ozone response to the solar rotational cycle in observations and chemistry-climate model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thiéblemont, Rémi; Marchand, Marion; Bekki, Slimane; Bossay, Sébastien; Lefèvre, Franck; Meftah, Mustapha; Hauchecorne, Alain

    2017-08-01

    The tropical stratospheric ozone response to solar UV variations associated with the rotational cycle (˜ 27 days) is analyzed using MLS satellite observations and numerical simulations from the LMDz-Reprobus chemistry-climate model. The model is used in two configurations, as a chemistry-transport model (CTM) where dynamics are nudged toward ERA-Interim reanalysis and as a chemistry-climate model (free-running) (CCM). An ensemble of five 17-year simulations (1991-2007) is performed with the CCM. All simulations are forced by reconstructed time-varying solar spectral irradiance from the Naval Research Laboratory Solar Spectral Irradiance model. We first examine the ozone response to the solar rotational cycle during two 3-year periods which correspond to the declining phases of solar cycle 22 (October 1991-September 1994) and solar cycle 23 (September 2004-August 2007), when the satellite ozone observations of the two Microwave Limb Sounders (UARS MLS and Aura MLS) are available. In the observations, during the first period, ozone and UV flux are found to be correlated between about 10 and 1 hPa with a maximum of 0.29 at ˜ 5 hPa; the ozone sensitivity (% change in ozone for 1 % change in UV) peaks at ˜ 0.4. Correlation during the second period is weaker and has a peak ozone sensitivity of only 0.2, possibly due to the fact that the solar forcing is weaker during that period. The CTM simulation reproduces most of these observed features, including the differences between the two periods. The CCM ensemble mean results comparatively show much smaller differences between the two periods, suggesting that the amplitude of the rotational ozone signal estimated from MLS observations or the CTM simulation is strongly influenced by other (non-solar) sources of variability, notably dynamics. The analysis of the ensemble of CCM simulations shows that the estimation of the ensemble mean ozone sensitivity does not vary significantly either with the amplitude of the solar

  6. Impact of an El Nino forcing on intense tropical cyclones in ensemble simulations of a high-resolution nonhydrostatic model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamada, Y.; Kodama, C.; Masaki, S.; Nakano, M.; Nasuno, T.; Sugi, M.

    2016-12-01

    Previous studies indicated that the El Nino-Southern Oscillation affects TC activities over the western North Pacific, and intense TCs increases during El Nino events. A global warming had been on a hiatus since 2000's. The hiatus finished in 2013 and the global warming has been accelerated since 2014. In 2015, the number of category 4 or 5 tropical cyclones (TCs) in the northern hemisphere was beyond the previous record; and an extreme El Nino event was observed. In 1997, the most extreme El Nino event has been observed. An intense TC was defined as a TC whose minimum central sea-level pressure reaches 945 hPa or less. The numbers of the intense TC between June and October are 9 in 1997 and 10 in 2015, which is archived in a best-track dataset of Japan Meteorology Agency. The average of genesis number between 1979 and 2015 was about 5.60. In both years, more intense TCs occurred than the average as the previous studies showed. In the present study, we conducted two cases of ensemble simulations which were driven by sea surface temperature observed in 1997 and 2015. Those simulation spans are 5 months, from June to October. The number of ensemble is 50 for the each case. Ensemble members were generated by altering their start date by 6 hour between 00UTC June 1 and 18UTC May 19. A nonhydrostatic icosahedral atmospheric model was used in those simulations; the horizontal grid spacing was 14-km; and a cumulus convective scheme was not used. A result of the simulation shows that the number of intense TCs varies among ensemble members for the each case; one of 50 members generated intense TC of 10 (12) in 2015's (1997's) simulation, and another member generated intense TC of 1 (3). This indicates a possibility that the number of intense TCs increases not only because of El Nino but also because of internal variation in response of atmosphere to El Nino.

  7. Climate change projections for the tropical Andes using a regional climate model: Temperature and precipitation simulations for the end of the 21st century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urrutia, RocíO.; Vuille, Mathias

    2009-01-01

    High-elevation tropical mountain regions may be more strongly affected by future climate change than their surrounding lowlands. In the tropical Andes a significant increase in temperature and changes in precipitation patterns will likely affect size and distribution of glaciers and wetlands, ecosystem integrity, and water availability for human consumption, irrigation, and power production. However, detailed projections of future climate change in the tropical Andes are not yet available. Here we present first results for the end of the 21st century (2071-2100) using a regional climate model (RCM) based on two different emission scenarios (A2 and B2). The model adequately simulates the spatiotemporal variability of precipitation and temperature but displays a cool and wet bias, in particular along the eastern Andean slope during the wet season, December-February. Projections of changes in the 21st century indicate significant warming in the tropical Andes, which is enhanced at higher elevations and further amplified in the middle and upper troposphere. Temperature changes are spatially similar in both scenarios, but the amplitude is significantly higher in RCM-A2. The RCM-A2 scenario also shows a significant increase in interannual temperature variability, while it remains almost unchanged in RCM-B2 when compared to a 20th century control run. Changes in precipitation are spatially much less coherent, with both regions of increased and decreased precipitation across the Andes. These results provide a first attempt at quantifying future climate change in the tropical Andes and could serve as input for impact models to simulate anticipated changes in Andean glaciation, hydrology, and ecosystem integrity.

  8. A Study of the Response of Deep Tropical Clouds to Mesoscale Processes. Part 1; Modeling Strategies and Simulations of TOGA-COARE Convective Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Daniel E.; Tao, W.-K.; Simpson, J.; Sui, C.-H.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    Interactions between deep tropical clouds over the western Pacific warm pool and the larger-scale environment are key to understanding climate change. Cloud models are an extremely useful tool in simulating and providing statistical information on heat and moisture transfer processes between cloud systems and the environment, and can therefore be utilized to substantially improve cloud parameterizations in climate models. In this paper, the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) cloud-resolving model is used in multi-day simulations of deep tropical convective activity over the Tropical Ocean-Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Response Experiment (TOGA COARE). Large-scale temperature and moisture advective tendencies, and horizontal momentum from the TOGA-COARE Intensive Flux Array (IFA) region, are applied to the GCE version which incorporates cyclical boundary conditions. Sensitivity experiments show that grid domain size produces the largest response to domain-mean temperature and moisture deviations, as well as cloudiness, when compared to grid horizontal or vertical resolution, and advection scheme. It is found that a minimum grid-domain size of 500 km is needed to adequately resolve the convective cloud features. The control experiment shows that the atmospheric heating and moistening is primarily a response to cloud latent processes of condensation/evaporation, and deposition/sublimation, and to a lesser extent, melting of ice particles. Air-sea exchange of heat and moisture is found to be significant, but of secondary importance, while the radiational response is small. The simulated rainfall and atmospheric heating and moistening, agrees well with observations, and performs favorably to other models simulating this case.

  9. Simulation of aerosol optical properties over a tropical urban site in India using a global model and its comparison with ground measurements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Goto

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Aerosols have great impacts on atmospheric environment, human health, and earth's climate. Therefore, information on their spatial and temporal distribution is of paramount importance. Despite numerous studies have examined the variation and trends of BC and AOD over India, only very few have focused on their spatial distribution or even correlating the observations with model simulations. In the present study, a three-dimensional aerosol transport-radiation model coupled with a general circulation model. SPRINTARS, simulated atmospheric aerosol distributions including BC and aerosol optical properties, i.e., aerosol optical thickness (AOT, Ångström Exponent (AE, and single scattering albedo (SSA. The simulated results are compared with both BC measurements by aethalometer and aerosol optical properties measured by ground-based skyradiometer and by satellite sensor, MODIS/Terra over Hyderabad, which is a tropical urban area of India, for the year 2008. The simulated AOT and AE in Hyderabad are found to be comparable to ground-based measured ones. The simulated SSA tends to be higher than the ground-based measurements. Both these comparisons of aerosol optical properties between the simulations with different emission inventories and the measurements indicate that, firstly the model uncertainties derived from aerosol emission inventory cannot explain the gaps between the simulations and the measurements and secondly the vertical transport of BC and the treatment of BC-containing particles can be the main issue in the global model to solve the gap.

  10. Impacts of Mt Pinatubo volcanic aerosol on the tropical stratosphere in chemistry-climate model simulations using CCMI and CMIP6 stratospheric aerosol data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Revell, Laura E.; Stenke, Andrea; Luo, Beiping; Kremser, Stefanie; Rozanov, Eugene; Sukhodolov, Timofei; Peter, Thomas

    2017-11-01

    To simulate the impacts of volcanic eruptions on the stratosphere, chemistry-climate models that do not include an online aerosol module require temporally and spatially resolved aerosol size parameters for heterogeneous chemistry and aerosol radiative properties as a function of wavelength. For phase 1 of the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI-1) and, later, for phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) two such stratospheric aerosol data sets were compiled, whose functional capability and representativeness are compared here. For CCMI-1, the SAGE-4λ data set was compiled, which hinges on the measurements at four wavelengths of the SAGE (Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment) II satellite instrument and uses ground-based lidar measurements for gap-filling immediately after the 1991 Mt Pinatubo eruption, when the stratosphere was too optically opaque for SAGE II. For CMIP6, the new SAGE-3λ data set was compiled, which excludes the least reliable SAGE II wavelength and uses measurements from CLAES (Cryogenic Limb Array Etalon Spectrometer) on UARS, the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite, for gap-filling following the Mt Pinatubo eruption instead of ground-based lidars. Here, we performed SOCOLv3 (Solar Climate Ozone Links version 3) chemistry-climate model simulations of the recent past (1986-2005) to investigate the impact of the Mt Pinatubo eruption in 1991 on stratospheric temperature and ozone and how this response differs depending on which aerosol data set is applied. The use of SAGE-4λ results in heating and ozone loss being overestimated in the tropical lower stratosphere compared to observations in the post-eruption period by approximately 3 K and 0.2 ppmv, respectively. However, less heating occurs in the model simulations based on SAGE-3λ, because the improved gap-filling procedures after the eruption lead to less aerosol loading in the tropical lower stratosphere. As a result, simulated tropical temperature anomalies in

  11. Modeling radiative transfer in tropical rainforest canopies: sensitivity of simulated albedo to canopy architectural and optical parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sílvia N. M. Yanagi

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available This study evaluates the sensitivity of the surface albedo simulated by the Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS to a set of Amazonian tropical rainforest canopy architectural and optical parameters. The parameters tested in this study are the orientation and reflectance of the leaves of upper and lower canopies in the visible (VIS and near-infrared (NIR spectral bands. The results are evaluated against albedo measurements taken above the K34 site at the INPA (Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia Cuieiras Biological Reserve. The sensitivity analysis indicates a strong response to the upper canopy leaves orientation (x up and to the reflectivity in the near-infrared spectral band (rNIR,up, a smaller sensitivity to the reflectivity in the visible spectral band (rVIS,up and no sensitivity at all to the lower canopy parameters, which is consistent with the canopy structure. The combination of parameters that minimized the Root Mean Square Error and mean relative error are Xup = 0.86, rVIS,up = 0.062 and rNIR,up = 0.275. The parameterizations performed resulted in successful simulations of tropical rainforest albedo by IBIS, indicating its potential to simulate the canopy radiative transfer for narrow spectral bands and permitting close comparison with remote sensing products.Este estudo avalia a sensibilidade do albedo da superfície pelo Simulador Integrado da Biosfera (IBIS a um conjunto de parâmetros que representam algumas propriedades arquitetônicas e óticas do dossel da floresta tropical Amazônica. Os parâmetros testados neste estudo são a orientação e refletância das folhas do dossel superior e inferior nas bandas espectrais do visível (VIS e infravermelho próximo (NIR. Os resultados são avaliados contra observações feitas no sítio K34 pertencente ao Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia (INPA na Reserva Biológica de Cuieiras. A análise de sensibilidade indica uma forte resposta aos parâmetros de orienta

  12. Simulating atmospheric composition over a South-East Asian tropical rainforest: performance of a chemistry box model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. A. M. Pugh

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Atmospheric composition and chemistry above tropical rainforests is currently not well established, particularly for south-east Asia. In order to examine our understanding of chemical processes in this region, the performance of a box model of atmospheric boundary layer chemistry is tested against measurements made at the top of the rainforest canopy near Danum Valley, Malaysian Borneo. Multi-variate optimisation against ambient concentration measurements was used to estimate average canopy-scale emissions for isoprene, total monoterpenes and nitric oxide. The excellent agreement between estimated values and measured fluxes of isoprene and total monoterpenes provides confidence in the overall modelling strategy, and suggests that this method may be applied where measured fluxes are not available, assuming that the local chemistry and mixing are adequately understood. The largest contributors to the optimisation cost function at the point of best-fit are OH (29%, NO (22% and total peroxy radicals (27%. Several factors affect the modelled VOC chemistry. In particular concentrations of methacrolein (MACR and methyl-vinyl ketone (MVK are substantially overestimated, and the hydroxyl radical (OH concentration is substantially underestimated; as has been seen before in tropical rainforest studies. It is shown that inclusion of dry deposition of MACR and MVK and wet deposition of species with high Henry's Law values substantially improves the fit of these oxidised species, whilst also substantially decreasing the OH sink. Increasing OH production arbitrarily, through a simple OH recycling mechanism , adversely affects the model fit for volatile organic compounds (VOCs. Given the constraints on isoprene flux provided by measurements, a substantial decrease in the rate of reaction of VOCs with OH is the only remaining option to explain the measurement/model discrepancy for OH. A reduction in the isoprene+OH rate constant of 50%, in conjunction with

  13. Microscale anthropogenic pollution modelling in a small tropical island during weak trade winds: Lagrangian particle dispersion simulations using real nested LES meteorological fields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cécé, Raphaël; Bernard, Didier; Brioude, Jérome; Zahibo, Narcisse

    2016-08-01

    Tropical islands are characterized by thermal and orographical forcings which may generate microscale air mass circulations. The Lesser Antilles Arc includes small tropical islands (width lower than 50 km) where a total of one-and-a-half million people live. Air quality over this region is affected by anthropogenic and volcanic emissions, or saharan dust. To reduce risks for the population health, the atmospheric dispersion of emitted pollutants must be predicted. In this study, the dispersion of anthropogenic nitrogen oxides (NOx) is numerically modelled over the densely populated area of the Guadeloupe archipelago under weak trade winds, during a typical case of severe pollution. The main goal is to analyze how microscale resolutions affect air pollution in a small tropical island. Three resolutions of domain grid are selected: 1 km, 333 m and 111 m. The Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) is used to produce real nested microscale meteorological fields. Then the weather outputs initialize the Lagrangian Particle Dispersion Model (FLEXPART). The forward simulations of a power plant plume showed good ability to reproduce nocturnal peaks recorded by an urban air quality station. The increase in resolution resulted in an improvement of model sensitivity. The nesting to subkilometer grids helped to reduce an overestimation bias mainly because the LES domains better simulate the turbulent motions governing nocturnal flows. For peaks observed at two air quality stations, the backward sensitivity outputs identified realistic sources of NOx in the area. The increase in resolution produced a sharper inverse plume with a more accurate source area. This study showed the first application of the FLEXPART-WRF model to microscale resolutions. Overall, the coupling model WRF-LES-FLEXPART is useful to simulate the pollutant dispersion during a real case of calm wind regime over a complex terrain area. The forward and backward simulation results showed clearly that the

  14. Weak simulated extratropical responses to complete tropical deforestation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Findell, K.L.; Knutson, T.R.; Milly, P.C.D.

    2006-01-01

    The Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory atmosphere-land model version 2 (AM2/LM2) coupled to a 50-m-thick slab ocean model has been used to investigate remote responses to tropical deforestation. Magnitudes and significance of differences between a control run and a deforested run are assessed through comparisons of 50-yr time series, accounting for autocorrelation and field significance. Complete conversion of the broadleaf evergreen forests of South America, central Africa, and the islands of Oceania to grasslands leads to highly significant local responses. In addition, a broad but mild warming is seen throughout the tropical troposphere (deforested run and the control run are similar in magnitude and area to the differences between nonoverlapping segments of the control run. These simulations suggest that extratropical responses to complete tropical deforestation are unlikely to be distinguishable from natural climate variability.

  15. Assessment of FAO AquaCrop Model for Simulating Maize Growth and Productivity under Deficit Irrigation in a Tropical Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Geneille E. Greaves

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Crop simulation models have a pivotal role to play in evaluating irrigation management strategies for improving agricultural water use. The objective of this study was to test and validate the AquaCrop model for maize under deficit irrigation management. Field observations from three experiments consisting of four treatments were used to evaluate model performance in simulating canopy cover (CC, biomass (B, yield (Y, crop evapotranspiration (ETc, and water use efficiency (WUE. Statistics for root mean square error, model efficiency (E, and index of agreement for B and CC suggest that the model prediction is good under non-stressed and moderate stress environments. Prediction of final B and Y under these conditions was acceptable, as indicated by the high coefficient of determination and deviations <10%. In severely stressed conditions, low E and deviations >11% for B and 9% for Y indicate a reduction in the model reliability. Simulated ETc and WUE deviation from observed values were within the range of 9.5% to 22.2% and 6.0% to 32.2%, respectively, suggesting that AquaCrop prediction of these variables is fair, becoming unsatisfactory as plant water stress intensifies. AquaCrop can be reliably used for evaluating the effectiveness of proposed irrigation management strategies for maize; however, the limitations should be kept in mind when interpreting the results in severely stressed conditions.

  16. Evaluating regional cloud-permitting simulations of the WRF model for the Tropical Warm Pool International Cloud Experiment (TWP-ICE, Darwin 2006)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Yi; Long, Charles N.; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Dudhia, Jimy; McFarlane, Sally A.; Mather, James H.; Ghan, Steven J.; Liu, Xiaodong

    2009-11-05

    Data from the Tropical Warm Pool I5 nternational Cloud Experiment (TWPICE) were used to evaluate two suites of high-resolution (4-7 km, convection-resolving) simulations of the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with a focus on the performance of different cloud microphysics (MP) schemes. The major difference between these two suites of simulations is with and without the reinitializing process. Whenreinitialized every three days, the four cloud MP schemes evaluated can capture the general profiles of cloud fraction, temperature, water vapor, winds, and cloud liquid and ice water content (LWC and IWC, respectively). However, compared with surface measurements of radiative and moisture fluxes and satellite retrieval of top-of-the-atmosphere (TOA) fluxes, disagreements do exist. Large discrepancies with observed LWC and IWC and derived radiative heating profiles can be attributed to both the limitations of the cloud property retrievals and model performance. The simulated precipitation also shows a wide range of uncertainty as compared with observations, which could be caused by the cloud MP schemes, complexity of land-sea configuration, and the high temporal and spatial variability. In general, our result indicates the importance of large-scale initial and lateral boundary conditions in re-producing basic features of cloudiness and its vertical structures. Based on our case study, we find overall the six-hydrometer single-moment MP scheme(WSM6) [Hong and Lim, 2006] in the WRF model si25 mulates the best agree- ment with the TWPICE observational analysis.

  17. Comparing atmosphere-land surface feedbacks from models within the tropics (CALM). Part 1: Evaluation of CMIP5 GCMs to simulate the land surface-atmosphere feedback

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, C.; Allan, R.; Kniveton, D.

    2012-04-01

    Man-made transformations to the environment, and in particular the land surface, are having a large impact on the distribution (in both time and space) of rainfall, upon which all life is reliant. From global changes in the composition of the atmosphere, through the emission of greenhouse gases and aerosols, to more localised land use and land cover changes due to an expanding population with an increasing ecological footprint, human activity has a considerable impact on the processes controlling rainfall. This is of particular importance for environmentally vulnerable regions such as many of those in the tropics. Here, widespread poverty, an extensive disease burden and pockets of political instability has resulted in a low resilience and limited adaptative capacity to climate related shocks and stresses. Recently, the 5th Climate Modelling Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) has run a number of state-of-the-art climate models using various present-day and future emission scenarios of greenhouse gases, and therefore provides an unprecedented amount of simulated model data. This paper presents the results of the first stage of a larger project, aiming to further our understanding of how the interactions between tropical rainfall and the land surface are represented in some of the latest climate model simulations. Focusing on precipitation, soil moisture and near-surface temperature, this paper compares the data from all of these models, as well as blended observational-satellite data, to see how the interactions between rainfall and the land surface differs (or agrees) between the models and reality. Firstly, in an analysis of the processes from the "observed" data, the results suggest a strong positive relationship between precipitation and soil moisture at both daily and seasonal timescales. There is a weaker and negative relationship between precipitation and temperature, and likewise between soil moisture and temperature. For all variables, the correlations are

  18. Sensitivity of tropical cyclone simulations to microphysics parameterizations in WRF

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reshmi Mohan, P.; Srinivas, C.V.; Bhaskaran, R.; Venkatraman, B.; Yesubabu, V.

    2018-01-01

    Tropical cyclones (TC) cause storm surge along coastal areas where these storms cross the coast. As major nuclear facilities are usually installed in coastal region, the surge predictions are highly important for DAE. The critical TC parameters needed in estimating storm surge are intensity (winds, central pressure and radius of maximum winds) and storm tracks. The predictions with numerical models are generally made by representing the clouds and precipitation processes using convective and microphysics parameterization. At high spatial resolutions (1-3Km) microphysics can act as cloud resolving NWP model to explicitly resolve the convective precipitation without using convection schemes. Recent simulation studies using WRF on severe weather phenomena such as thunderstorms and hurricanes indicated large sensitivity of predicted rainfall and hurricane tracks to microphysics due to variation in temperature and pressure gradients which generate winds that determine the storm track. In the present study the sensitivity of tropical cyclone tracks and intensity to different microphysics schemes has been conducted

  19. Investigation of Future Thermal Comforts in a Tropical Megacity Using Coupling of Energy Balance Model and Large Eddy Simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sueishi, T.; Yucel, M.; Ashie, Y.; Varquez, A. C. G.; Inagaki, A.; Darmanto, N. S.; Nakayoshi, M.; Kanda, M.

    2017-12-01

    Recently, temperature in urban areas continue to rise as an effect of climate change and urbanization. Specifically, Asian megacities are projected to expand rapidly resulting to serious in the future atmospheric environment. Thus, detailed analysis of urban meteorology for Asian megacities is needed to prescribe optimum against these negative climate modifications. A building-resolving large eddy simulation (LES) coupled with an energy balance model is conducted for a highly urbanized district in central Jakarta on typical daytime hours. Five cases were considered; case 1 utilizes present urban scenario and four cases representing different urban configurations in 2050. The future configurations were based on representative concentration pathways (RCP) and shared socio-economic pathways (SSP). Building height maps and land use maps of simulation domains are shown in the attached figure (top). Case 1 3 focuses on the difference of future scenarios. Case 1 represents current climatic and urban conditions, case 2 and 3 was an idealized future represented by RCP2.6/SSP1 and RCP8.5/SSP3, respectively. More complex urban morphology was applied in case 4, vegetation and building area were changed in case 5. Meteorological inputs and anthropogenic heat emission (AHE) were calculated using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model (Varquez et al [2017]). Sensible and latent heat flux from surfaces were calculated using an energy balance model (Ashie et al [2011]), with considers multi-reflection, evapotranspiration and evaporation. The results of energy balance model (shown in the middle line of figure), in addition to WRF outputs, were used as input into the PArallelized LES Model (PALM) (Raasch et al [2001]). From standard new effective temperature (SET*) which included the effects of temperature, wind speed, humidity and radiation, thermal comfort in urban area was evaluated. SET* contours at 1 m height are shown in the bottom line of the figure. Extreme climate

  20. Simulations of tropical rainforest albedo: is canopy wetness important?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silvia N.M. Yanagi

    Full Text Available Accurate information on surface albedo is essential for climate modelling, especially for regions such as Amazonia, where the response of the regional atmospheric circulation to the changes on surface albedo is strong. Previous studies have indicated that models are still unable to correctly reproduce details of the seasonal variation of surface albedo. Therefore, it was investigated the role of canopy wetness on the simulated albedo of a tropical rainforest by modifying the IBIS canopy radiation transfer code to incorporate the effects of canopy wetness on the vegetation reflectance. In this study, simulations were run using three versions of the land surface/ecosystem model IBIS: the standard version, the same version recalibrated to fit the data of albedo on tropical rainforests and a modified version that incorporates the effects of canopy wetness on surface albedo, for three sites in the Amazon forest at hourly and monthly scales. The results demonstrated that, at the hourly time scale, the incorporation of canopy wetness on the calculations of radiative transfer substantially improves the simulations results, whereas at the monthly scale these changes do not substantially modify the simulated albedo.

  1. Impact of parameterization of physical processes on simulation of track and intensity of tropical cyclone Nargis (2008) with WRF-NMM model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pattanayak, Sujata; Mohanty, U C; Osuri, Krishna K

    2012-01-01

    The present study is carried out to investigate the performance of different cumulus convection, planetary boundary layer, land surface processes, and microphysics parameterization schemes in the simulation of a very severe cyclonic storm (VSCS) Nargis (2008), developed in the central Bay of Bengal on 27 April 2008. For this purpose, the nonhydrostatic mesoscale model (NMM) dynamic core of weather research and forecasting (WRF) system is used. Model-simulated track positions and intensity in terms of minimum central mean sea level pressure (MSLP), maximum surface wind (10 m), and precipitation are verified with observations as provided by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) and Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM). The estimated optimum combination is reinvestigated with six different initial conditions of the same case to have better conclusion on the performance of WRF-NMM. A few more diagnostic fields like vertical velocity, vorticity, and heat fluxes are also evaluated. The results indicate that cumulus convection play an important role in the movement of the cyclone, and PBL has a crucial role in the intensification of the storm. The combination of Simplified Arakawa Schubert (SAS) convection, Yonsei University (YSU) PBL, NMM land surface, and Ferrier microphysics parameterization schemes in WRF-NMM give better track and intensity forecast with minimum vector displacement error.

  2. Statistical Analyses of Satellite Cloud Object Data from CERES. Part III; Comparison with Cloud-Resolving Model Simulations of Tropical Convective Clouds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Yali; Xu, Kuan-Man; Wielicki, Bruce A.; Wong, Takmeng; Eitzen, Zachary A.

    2007-01-01

    The present study evaluates the ability of a cloud-resolving model (CRM) to simulate the physical properties of tropical deep convective cloud objects identified from a Clouds and the Earth s Radiant Energy System (CERES) data product. The emphasis of this study is the comparisons among the small-, medium- and large-size categories of cloud objects observed during March 1998 and between the large-size categories of cloud objects observed during March 1998 (strong El Ni o) and March 2000 (weak La Ni a). Results from the CRM simulations are analyzed in a way that is consistent with the CERES retrieval algorithm and they are averaged to match the scale of the CERES satellite footprints. Cloud physical properties are analyzed in terms of their summary histograms for each category. It is found that there is a general agreement in the overall shapes of all cloud physical properties between the simulated and observed distributions. Each cloud physical property produced by the CRM also exhibits different degrees of disagreement with observations over different ranges of the property. The simulated cloud tops are generally too high and cloud top temperatures are too low except for the large-size category of March 1998. The probability densities of the simulated top-of-the-atmosphere (TOA) albedos for all four categories are underestimated for high albedos, while those of cloud optical depth are overestimated at its lowest bin. These disagreements are mainly related to uncertainties in the cloud microphysics parameterization and inputs such as cloud ice effective size to the radiation calculation. Summary histograms of cloud optical depth and TOA albedo from the CRM simulations of the large-size category of cloud objects do not differ significantly between the March 1998 and 2000 periods, consistent with the CERES observations. However, the CRM is unable to reproduce the significant differences in the observed cloud top height while it overestimates the differences in the

  3. Why is the simulated climatology of tropical cyclones so sensitive to the choice of cumulus parameterization scheme in the WRF model?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Chunxi; Wang, Yuqing

    2018-01-01

    The sensitivity of simulated tropical cyclones (TCs) to the choice of cumulus parameterization (CP) scheme in the advanced Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF-ARW) version 3.5 is analyzed based on ten seasonal simulations with 20-km horizontal grid spacing over the western North Pacific. Results show that the simulated frequency and intensity of TCs are very sensitive to the choice of the CP scheme. The sensitivity can be explained well by the difference in the low-level circulation in a height and sorted moisture space. By transporting moist static energy from dry to moist region, the low-level circulation is important to convective self-aggregation which is believed to be related to genesis of TC-like vortices (TCLVs) and TCs in idealized settings. The radiative and evaporative cooling associated with low-level clouds and shallow convection in dry regions is found to play a crucial role in driving the moisture-sorted low-level circulation. With shallow convection turned off in a CP scheme, relatively strong precipitation occurs frequently in dry regions. In this case, the diabatic cooling can still drive the low-level circulation but its strength is reduced and thus TCLV/TC genesis is suppressed. The inclusion of the cumulus momentum transport (CMT) in a CP scheme can considerably suppress genesis of TCLVs/TCs, while changes in the moisture-sorted low-level circulation and horizontal distribution of precipitation are trivial, indicating that the CMT modulates the TCLVs/TCs activities in the model by mechanisms other than the horizontal transport of moist static energy.

  4. Model simulation of changes in N2O and NO emissions with conversion of tropical rain forests to pastures in the Costa Rican Atlantic Zone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Shuguang; Reiners, William A.; Keller, Michael; Schimel, David S.

    1999-06-01

    Nitrous oxide (N2O) and nitric oxide (NO) are among the trace gases of concern because of their importance in global climate and atmospheric chemistry. Modeling techniques are needed for simulating the spatial and temporal dynamics of N2O and NO emissions from soils into the atmosphere. In this study, we modified the ecosystem model CENTURY to simulate changes in N2O and NO soil emissions through the process of converting tropical moist forests to pastures in the Atlantic Lowlands of Costa Rica. Measurements of water-filled pore space (WFPS) and fluxes of N2O and NO from a chronosequence of pastures were used for calibration and testing of the model. It was found that the N2O+NO — WFPS and N2O:NO — WFPS relationships as developed from primary forests could be generalized to the chronosequence of pastures and other land use systems in the region. Modeled net increases (compared to primary forests) in total N2O and NO production after conversion from forest to pasture were 514 kg N ha-1 during the first 15 years under normal field conditions. The nitrogen loss in the form of N2O and NO during the first 15 years could range from 401 to 548 kg N ha-1, depending on the amounts of forest residue remaining on pasture sites. N2O-N accounted for 90% of the gas fluxes, while NO-N accounted for 10%. Sensitivity analysis indicated that the impacts of forest-pasture conversion on N2O and NO emissions from soil into the atmosphere were complex, depending on the initial conditions of the forest-derived pastures, management practices, soil physical and chemical conditions and their changes over time, N availability, and climate. It is therefore important to incorporate the spatial and temporal heterogeneities of those controlling factors in estimating regional and global N2O and NO emissions from soils into the atmosphere.

  5. Towards a realistic simulation of boreal summer tropical rainfall climatology in state-of-the-art coupled models: role of the background snow-free land albedo

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terray, P.; Sooraj, K. P.; Masson, S.; Krishna, R. P. M.; Samson, G.; Prajeesh, A. G.

    2017-07-01

    State-of-the-art global coupled models used in seasonal prediction systems and climate projections still have important deficiencies in representing the boreal summer tropical rainfall climatology. These errors include prominently a severe dry bias over all the Northern Hemisphere monsoon regions, excessive rainfall over the ocean and an unrealistic double inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) structure in the tropical Pacific. While these systematic errors can be partly reduced by increasing the horizontal atmospheric resolution of the models, they also illustrate our incomplete understanding of the key mechanisms controlling the position of the ITCZ during boreal summer. Using a large collection of coupled models and dedicated coupled experiments, we show that these tropical rainfall errors are partly associated with insufficient surface thermal forcing and incorrect representation of the surface albedo over the Northern Hemisphere continents. Improving the parameterization of the land albedo in two global coupled models leads to a large reduction of these systematic errors and further demonstrates that the Northern Hemisphere subtropical deserts play a seminal role in these improvements through a heat low mechanism.

  6. Changes in tropical cyclones under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios as simulated by the Community Atmospheric Model under the HAPPI protocols

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. F. Wehner

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC invited the scientific community to explore the impacts of a world in which anthropogenic global warming is stabilized at only 1.5 °C above preindustrial average temperatures. We present a projection of future tropical cyclone statistics for both 1.5 and 2.0 °C stabilized warming scenarios with direct numerical simulation using a high-resolution global climate model. As in similar projections at higher warming levels, we find that even at these low warming levels the most intense tropical cyclones become more frequent and more intense, while simultaneously the frequency of weaker tropical storms is decreased. We also conclude that in the 1.5 °C stabilization, the effect of aerosol forcing changes complicates the interpretation of greenhouse gas forcing changes.

  7. Changes in tropical cyclones under stabilized 1.5 and 2.0 °C global warming scenarios as simulated by the Community Atmospheric Model under the HAPPI protocols

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wehner, Michael F.; Reed, Kevin A.; Loring, Burlen; Stone, Dáithí; Krishnan, Harinarayan

    2018-02-01

    The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the scientific community to explore the impacts of a world in which anthropogenic global warming is stabilized at only 1.5 °C above preindustrial average temperatures. We present a projection of future tropical cyclone statistics for both 1.5 and 2.0 °C stabilized warming scenarios with direct numerical simulation using a high-resolution global climate model. As in similar projections at higher warming levels, we find that even at these low warming levels the most intense tropical cyclones become more frequent and more intense, while simultaneously the frequency of weaker tropical storms is decreased. We also conclude that in the 1.5 °C stabilization, the effect of aerosol forcing changes complicates the interpretation of greenhouse gas forcing changes.

  8. Variations in the width of the Indo-Pacific tropical rain belt over the last millennium: synthesis of stalagmite proxy records and climate model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ummenhofer, Caroline; Denniston, Rhawn

    2017-04-01

    The seasonal north-south migration of the intertropical convergence zone defines the tropical rain belt (TRB), a region of enormous terrestrial biodiversity and home to 40% of the world's population. The TRB is dynamic and has been shown to shift south as a coherent system during periods of Northern Hemisphere cooling. However, recent studies of Indo-Pacific hydroclimate suggest that during the Little Ice Age (AD 1400-1850), the TRB in this region contracted rather than being displaced uniformly southward. This behaviour is not well understood, particularly during climatic fluctuations less pronounced than those of the Little Ice Age, the largest centennial-scale cool period of the last millennium. Using state-of-the-art climate model simulations conducted as part of the Last Millennium Ensemble with the Community Earth System Model (CESM), we evaluate variations in the width of the Indo-Pacific TRB, as well as movements in the position of its northward and southward edges, across a range of timescales over the pre-Industrial portion of the last millennium (AD 850-1850). The climate model results complement a recent reconstruction of late Holocene variability of the Indo-Pacific TRB, based on a precisely-dated, monsoon-sensitive stalagmite reconstruction from northern Australia (cave KNI-51), located at the southern edge of the TRB and thus highly sensitive to variations at its southern edge. Integrating KNI-51 with a record from Dongge Cave in southern China allows a stalagmite-based TRB reconstruction. Our results reveal that rather than shifting meridionally, the Indo-Pacific TRB expanded and contracted over multidecadal/centennial time scales during the late Holocene, with symmetric weakening/strengthening of summer monsoons in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres of the Indo-Pacific (the East Asian summer monsoon in China and the Australian summer monsoon in northern Australia). Links to large-scale climatic conditions across the Indo-Pacific region

  9. Tropical Cyclones in the GISS ModelE2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Camargo, Suzana J.; Sobel, Adam H.; Del Genio, Anthony; Jonas, Jeffrey A.; Kelley, Maxwell; Lu, Yun; Shaevitz, Daniel; Henderson, Naomi

    2016-01-01

    The authors describe the characteristics of tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the GISS general circulation ModelE2 with a horizontal resolution 1deg x 1deg. Four model simulations are analyzed. In the first, the model is forced with sea surface temperature (SST) from the recent historical climatology. The other three have different idealized climate change simulations, namely (1) a uniform increase of SST by 2 deg., (2) doubling of the CO2 concentration and (3) a combination of the two. These simulations were performed as part of the US Climate Variability and Predictability Program Hurricane Working Group. Diagnostics of standard measures of TC activity are computed from the recent historical climatological SST simulation and compared with the same measures computed from observations. The changes in TC activity in the three idealized climate change simulations, by comparison with that in the historical climatological SST simulation, are also described. Similar to previous results in the literature, the changes in TC frequency in the simulation with a doubling CO2 and an increase in SST are approximately the linear sum of the TC frequency in the other two simulations. However, in contrast with previous results, in these simulations the effects of CO2 and SST on TC frequency oppose each other. Large-scale environmental variables associated with TC activity are then analyzed for the present and future simulations. Model biases in the large-scale fields are identified through a comparison with ERA-Interim reanalysis. Changes in the environmental fields in the future climate simulations are shown and their association with changes in TC activity discussed.

  10. Tropical cyclones in the GISS ModelE2

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suzana J. Camargo

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available The authors describe the characteristics of tropical cyclone (TC activity in the GISS general circulation ModelE2 with a horizontal resolution 1°×1°. Four model simulations are analysed. In the first, the model is forced with sea surface temperature (SST from the recent historical climatology. The other three have different idealised climate change simulations, namely (1 a uniform increase of SST by 2 degrees, (2 doubling of the CO2 concentration and (3 a combination of the two. These simulations were performed as part of the US Climate Variability and Predictability Program Hurricane Working Group. Diagnostics of standard measures of TC activity are computed from the recent historical climatological SST simulation and compared with the same measures computed from observations. The changes in TC activity in the three idealised climate change simulations, by comparison with that in the historical climatological SST simulation, are also described. Similar to previous results in the literature, the changes in TC frequency in the simulation with a doubling CO2 and an increase in SST are approximately the linear sum of the TC frequency in the other two simulations. However, in contrast with previous results, in these simulations the effects of CO2 and SST on TC frequency oppose each other. Large-scale environmental variables associated with TC activity are then analysed for the present and future simulations. Model biases in the large-scale fields are identified through a comparison with ERA-Interim reanalysis. Changes in the environmental fields in the future climate simulations are shown and their association with changes in TC activity discussed.

  11. Sensitivity of tropical cyclone Jal simulations to physics ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    PBL) and microphysics. (MP) parameterization schemes have more impact on the track and intensity prediction skill than the other parameterizations employed in the mesoscale model. 1. Introduction. Tropical cyclones (TC) are important weather ...

  12. Hydrological simulation in a basin of typical tropical climate and soil using the SWAT Model Part II: Simulation of hydrological variables and soil use scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Donizete dos R. Pereira

    2016-03-01

    New hydrological insights for the region: It was observed that the values of maximum and minimum annual daily streamflows with different return times, and of minimum reference streamflows for water rights simulated by the SWAT did not statistically differ from the values observed according to T-test at 5% probability level. When assessing the effects of changes in soil use, a mean annual reduction in runoff from 13.6, 4.0, and 6.5 mm was observed for scenarios S1, S2, and S3, respectively.

  13. Large-eddy simulation of maritime deep tropical convection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter A Bogenschutz

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available This study represents an attempt to apply Large-Eddy Simulation (LES resolution to simulate deep tropical convection in near equilibrium for 24 hours over an area of about 205 x 205 km2, which is comparable to that of a typical horizontal grid cell in a global climate model. The simulation is driven by large-scale thermodynamic tendencies derived from mean conditions during the GATE Phase III field experiment. The LES uses 2048 x 2048 x 256 grid points with horizontal grid spacing of 100 m and vertical grid spacing ranging from 50 m in the boundary layer to 100 m in the free troposphere. The simulation reaches a near equilibrium deep convection regime in 12 hours. The simulated vertical cloud distribution exhibits a trimodal vertical distribution of deep, middle and shallow clouds similar to that often observed in Tropics. A sensitivity experiment in which cold pools are suppressed by switching off the evaporation of precipitation results in much lower amounts of shallow and congestus clouds. Unlike the benchmark LES where the new deep clouds tend to appear along the edges of spreading cold pools, the deep clouds in the no-cold-pool experiment tend to reappear at the sites of the previous deep clouds and tend to be surrounded by extensive areas of sporadic shallow clouds. The vertical velocity statistics of updraft and downdraft cores below 6 km height are compared to aircraft observations made during GATE. The comparison shows generally good agreement, and strongly suggests that the LES simulation can be used as a benchmark to represent the dynamics of tropical deep convection on scales ranging from large turbulent eddies to mesoscale convective systems. The effect of horizontal grid resolution is examined by running the same case with progressively larger grid sizes of 200, 400, 800, and 1600 m. These runs show a reasonable agreement with the benchmark LES in statistics such as convective available potential energy, convective inhibition

  14. Resolving Tropical Cyclone Intensity in Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, C. A.

    2018-02-01

    In recent years, global weather forecast models and global climate models have begun to depict intense tropical cyclones, even up to category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale. In light of the limitation of horizontal resolution in such models, the author performs calculations, using the extended Best Track data for Atlantic tropical cyclones, to estimate the ability of models with differing grid spacing to represent Atlantic tropical cyclone intensity statistically. Results indicate that, under optimistic assumptions, models with horizontal grid spacing of one fourth degree or coarser should not produce a realistic number of category 4 and 5 storms unless there are errors in spatial attributes of the wind field. Furthermore, the case of Irma (2017) is used to demonstrate the importance of a realistic depiction of angular momentum and to motivate the use of angular momentum in model evaluation.

  15. Hydrological simulation in a basin of typical tropical climate and soil using the SWAT model part I: Calibration and validation tests

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Donizete dos R. Pereira

    2016-09-01

    New hydrological insights: The SWAT model was qualified for simulating the Pomba River sub-basin in the sites where rainfall representation was reasonable to good. The model can be used in the simulation of maximum, average and minimum annual daily streamflow based on the paired t-test, contributing with the water resources management of region, although the model still needs to be improved, mainly in the representativeness of rainfall, to give better estimates of extreme values.

  16. How do uncertainties in NCEP R2 and CFSR surface fluxes impact tropical ocean simulations?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wen, Caihong; Xue, Yan; Kumar, Arun; Behringer, David; Yu, Lisan

    2017-11-01

    NCEP/DOE reanalysis (R2) and Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) surface fluxes are widely used by the research community to understand surface flux climate variability, and to drive ocean models as surface forcings. However, large discrepancies exist between these two products, including (1) stronger trade winds in CFSR than in R2 over the tropical Pacific prior 2000; (2) excessive net surface heat fluxes into ocean in CFSR than in R2 with an increase in difference after 2000. The goals of this study are to examine the sensitivity of ocean simulations to discrepancies between CFSR and R2 surface fluxes, and to assess the fidelity of the two products. A set of experiments, where an ocean model was driven by a combination of surface flux components from R2 and CFSR, were carried out. The model simulations were contrasted to identify sensitivity to different component of the surface fluxes in R2 and CFSR. The accuracy of the model simulations was validated against the tropical moorings data, altimetry SSH and SST reanalysis products. Sensitivity of ocean simulations showed that temperature bias difference in the upper 100 m is mostly sensitive to the differences in surface heat fluxes, while depth of 20 °C (D20) bias difference is mainly determined by the discrepancies in momentum fluxes. D20 simulations with CFSR winds agree with observation well in the western equatorial Pacific prior 2000, but have large negative bias similar to those with R2 winds after 2000, partly because easterly winds over the central Pacific were underestimated in both CFSR and R2. On the other hand, the observed temperature variability is well reproduced in the tropical Pacific by simulations with both R2 and CFSR fluxes. Relative to the R2 fluxes, the CFSR fluxes improve simulation of interannual variability in all three tropical oceans to a varying degree. The improvement in the tropical Atlantic is most significant and is largely attributed to differences in surface winds.

  17. Moist static energy budget analysis of tropical cyclogenesis in climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wing, A. A.; Camargo, S. J.; Kim, D.; Sobel, A. H.; Murakami, H.; Zhao, M.; Zarzycki, C. M.; Vecchi, G. A.

    2016-12-01

    In recent years, climate models have improved such that high-resolution simulations are able to reproduce the climatology of tropical cyclone activity with some fidelity and show some skill in seasonal forecasting. However biases remain in many models, motivating a better understanding of what factors control the representation of tropical cyclone activity in climate models. We explore the tropical cyclogenesis processes in four high-resolution climate models, including both coupled and uncoupled configurations. Our analysis framework focuses on how convection, moisture, clouds and related processes are coupled and employs budgets of column moist static energy and the spatial variance of column moist static energy. The latter was originally developed to study the mechanisms of tropical convective organization in idealized cloud-resolving model, and allows us to quantify the different feedback processes responsible for the amplification of moist static energy anomalies associated with the organization of convection and cyclogenesis. We track the formation and evolution of tropical cyclones in the climate model simulations and apply our analysis both along the individual tracks and composited over many tropical cyclones. The advantage of this approach is that that we can directly compare the genesis processes between the several different climate models and with existing cloud-resolving model simulations. We also use these and other process-based diagnostics to identify model characteristics that are responsible for a good simulation of tropical cyclone activity.

  18. Impact of resolution and downscaling technique in simulating recent Atlantic tropical cyclone activity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Caron, Louis-Philippe; Winger, Katja [CRCMD Network, UQAM, Montreal, QC (Canada); Jones, Colin G. [Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Rossby Centre, Norrkoping (Sweden)

    2011-09-15

    Using the global environmental multiscale (GEM) model, we investigate the impact of increasing model resolution from 2 to 0.3 on Atlantic tropical cyclone activity. There is a clear improvement in the realism of Atlantic storms with increased resolution, in part, linked to a better representation of African easterly waves. The geographical distribution of a Genesis Potential Index, composed of large-scales fields known to impact cyclone formation, coincides closely in the model with areas of high cyclogenesis. The geographical distribution of this index also improves with resolution. We then compare two techniques for achieving local high resolution over the tropical Atlantic: a limited-area model driven at the boundaries by the global 2 GEM simulation and a global variable resolution model (GVAR). The limited-area domain and high-resolution part of the GVAR model coincide geographically, allowing a direct comparison between these two downscaling options. These integrations are further compared with a set of limited-area simulations employing the same domain and resolution, but driven at the boundaries by reanalysis. The limited-area model driven by reanalysis produces the most realistic Atlantic tropical cyclone variability. The GVAR simulation is clearly more accurate than the limited-area version driven by GEM-Global. Degradation in the simulated interannual variability is partly linked to the models failure to accurately reproduce the impact of atmospheric teleconnections from the equatorial Pacific and Sahel on Atlantic cyclogenesis. Through the use of a smaller limited-area grid, driven by GEM-Global 2 , we show that an accurate representation of African Easterly Waves is crucial for simulating Atlantic tropical cyclone variability. (orig.)

  19. Evaluation Metrics for Simulations of Tropical South America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallup, S.; Baker, I. T.; Denning, A. S.; Cheeseman, M.; Haynes, K. D.; Phillips, M.

    2017-12-01

    The evergreen broadleaf forest of the Amazon Basin is the largest rainforest on earth, and has teleconnections to global climate and carbon cycle characteristics. This region defies simple characterization, spanning large gradients in total rainfall and seasonal variability. Broadly, the region can be thought of as trending from light-limited in its wettest areas to water-limited near the ecotone, with individual landscapes possibly exhibiting the characteristics of either (or both) limitations during an annual cycle. A basin-scale classification of mean behavior has been elusive, and ecosystem response to seasonal cycles and anomalous drought events has resulted in some disagreement in the literature, to say the least. However, new observational platforms and instruments make characterization of the heterogeneity and variability more feasible.To evaluate simulations of ecophysiological function, we develop metrics that correlate various observational products with meteorological variables such as precipitation and radiation. Observations include eddy covariance fluxes, Solar Induced Fluorescence (SIF, from GOME2 and OCO2), biomass and vegetation indices. We find that the modest correlation between SIF and precipitation decreases with increasing annual precipitation, although the relationship is not consistent between products. Biomass increases with increasing precipitation. Although vegetation indices are generally correlated with biomass and precipitation, they can saturate or experience retrieval issues during cloudy periods.Using these observational products and relationships, we develop a set of model evaluation metrics. These metrics are designed to call attention to models that get "the right answer only if it's for the right reason," and provide an opportunity for more critical evaluation of model physics. These metrics represent a testbed that can be applied to multiple models as a means to evaluate their performance in tropical South America.

  20. A modelling approach for simulation of water and carbon dioxide exchange between multi-species tropical rain forest and the atmosphere

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olchev, A.; Ibrom, Andreas; Ross, T.

    2008-01-01

    An one-dimensional process-based SVAT model (Mixfor-SVAT) was developed to describe energy, water and carbon dioxide exchanges between vegetation canopy and the atmosphere at a local scale. Simulation of the energy, water and CO2 fluxes in Mixfor-SVAT is based on aggregated description of the phy......An one-dimensional process-based SVAT model (Mixfor-SVAT) was developed to describe energy, water and carbon dioxide exchanges between vegetation canopy and the atmosphere at a local scale. Simulation of the energy, water and CO2 fluxes in Mixfor-SVAT is based on aggregated description...... in measured data series caused by some instrumental errors, sensor wetting, changes in the footprint or fast changes in turbulence conditions resulted in some reduction of correlation between modeled and measured fluxes (e.g. r(2) = 0.62 for CO2 and r(2) = 0.64 for H2O fluxes under friction velocity u* > 0...

  1. Modelling tropical forests response to logging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cazzolla Gatti, Roberto; Di Paola, Arianna; Valentini, Riccardo; Paparella, Francesco

    2013-04-01

    Tropical rainforests are among the most threatened ecosystems by large-scale fragmentation due to human activity such as heavy logging and agricultural clearance. Although, they provide crucial ecosystem goods and services, such as sequestering carbon from the atmosphere, protecting watersheds and conserving biodiversity. In several countries forest resource extraction has experienced a shift from clearcutting to selective logging to maintain a significant forest cover and understock of living biomass. However the knowledge on the short and long-term effects of removing selected species in tropical rainforest are scarce and need to be further investigated. One of the main effects of selective logging on forest dynamics seems to be the local disturbance which involve the invasion of open space by weed, vines and climbers at the expense of the late-successional state cenosis. We present a simple deterministic model that describes the dynamics of tropical rainforest subject to selective logging to understand how and why weeds displace native species. We argue that the selective removal of tallest tropical trees carries out gaps of light that allow weeds, vines and climbers to prevail on native species, inhibiting the possibility of recovery of the original vegetation. Our results show that different regime shifts may occur depending on the type of forest management adopted. This hypothesis is supported by a dataset of trees height and weed/vines cover that we collected from 9 plots located in Central and West Africa both in untouched and managed areas.

  2. Long-term regional simulation of tropical cyclones using a Generalized Stochastic Empirical Storm Model : A case study in the Western North Pacific

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nguyen, B.M.

    2015-01-01

    In coastal areas, Tropical Cyclones (TCs) are one of the greatest threats to humanity. Unfortunately, current risk reduction measures are not completely successful in lessening TC's consequences due to the remaining uncertainties in the estimates of key parameters, on which the designs of these

  3. Sensitivity of tropical cyclones to resolution, convection scheme and ocean flux parameterization over Eastern Tropical Pacific and Tropical North Atlantic Oceans in the RegCM4 model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuentes-Franco, Ramón; Giorgi, Filippo; Coppola, Erika; Zimmermann, Klaus

    2017-07-01

    The sensitivity of simulated tropical cyclones (TCs) to resolution, convection scheme and ocean surface flux parameterization is investigated with a regional climate model (RegCM4) over the CORDEX Central America domain, including the Tropical North Atlantic (TNA) and Eastern Tropical Pacific (ETP) basins. Simulations for the TC seasons of the ten-year period (1989-1998) driven by ERA-Interim reanalysis fields are completed using 50 and 25 km grid spacing, two convection schemes (Emanuel, Em; and Kain-Fritsch, KF) and two ocean surface flux representations, a Monin-Obukhov scheme available in the BATS land surface package (Dickinson et al. 1993), and the scheme of Zeng et al. (J Clim 11(10):2628-2644, 1998). The model performance is assessed against observed TC characteristics for the simulation period. In general, different sensitivities are found over the two basins investigated. The simulations using the KF scheme show higher TC density, longer TC duration (up to 15 days) and stronger peak winds (>50 ms-1) than those using Em (<40 ms-1). All simulations show a better spatial representation of simulated TC density and interannual variability over the TNA than over the ETP. The 25 km resolution simulations show greater TC density, duration and intensity compared to the 50 km resolution ones, especially over the ETP basin, and generally more in line with observations. Simulated TCs show a strong sensitivity to ocean fluxes, especially over the TNA basin, with the Monin-Obukhov scheme leading to an overestimate of the TC number, and the Zeng scheme being closer to observations. All simulations capture the density of cyclones during active TC seasons over the TNA, however, without data assimilation, the tracks of individual events do not match closely the corresponding observed ones. Overall, the best model performance is obtained when using the KF and Zeng schemes at 25 km grid spacing.

  4. Future Changes in Tropical Cyclone Activity in High-Resolution Large-Ensemble Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoshida, Kohei; Sugi, Masato; Mizuta, Ryo; Murakami, Hiroyuki; Ishii, Masayoshi

    2017-10-01

    Projected future changes in global tropical cyclone (TC) activity are assessed using 5,000 year scale ensemble simulations for both current and 4 K surface warming climates with a 60 km global atmospheric model. The global number of TCs decreases by 33% in the future projection. Although geographical TC occurrences decrease generally, they increase in the central and eastern parts of the extra tropical North Pacific. Meanwhile, very intense (category 4 and 5) TC occurrences increase over a broader area including the south of Japan and south of Madagascar. The global number of category 4 and 5 TCs significantly decreases, contrary to the increase seen in several previous studies. Lifetime maximum surface wind speeds and precipitation rate are amplified globally. Regional TC activity changes have large uncertainty corresponding to sea surface temperature warming patterns. TC-resolving large-ensemble simulations provide useful information, especially for policy making related to future climate change.

  5. PV (photovoltaics) performance evaluation and simulation-based energy yield prediction for tropical buildings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saber, Esmail M.; Lee, Siew Eang; Manthapuri, Sumanth; Yi, Wang; Deb, Chirag

    2014-01-01

    Air pollution and climate change increased the importance of renewable energy resources like solar energy in the last decades. Rack-mounted PhotoVoltaics (PV) and Building Integrated PhotoVoltaics (BIPV) are the most common photovoltaic systems which convert incident solar radiation on façade or surrounding area to electricity. In this paper the performance of different solar cell types is evaluated for the tropical weather of Singapore. As a case study, on-site measured data of PV systems implemented in a zero energy building in Singapore, is analyzed. Different types of PV systems (silicon wafer and thin film) have been installed on rooftop, façade, car park shelter, railing and etc. The impact of different solar cell generations, arrays environmental conditions (no shading, dappled shading, full shading), orientation (South, North, East or West facing) and inclination (between PV module and horizontal direction) is investigated on performance of modules. In the second stage of research, the whole PV systems in the case study are simulated in EnergyPlus energy simulation software with several PV performance models including Simple, Equivalent one-diode and Sandia. The predicted results by different models are compared with measured data and the validated model is used to provide simulation-based energy yield predictions for wide ranges of scenarios. It has been concluded that orientation of low-slope rooftop PV has negligible impact on annual energy yield but in case of PV external sunshade, east façade and panel slope of 30–40° are the most suitable location and inclination. - Highlights: • Characteristics of PV systems in tropics are analyzed in depth. • The ambiguity toward amorphous panel energy yield in tropics is discussed. • Equivalent-one diode and Sandia models can fairly predict the energy yield. • A general guideline is provided to estimate the energy yield of PV systems in tropics

  6. A New Coupled Ocean-Waves-Atmosphere Model Designed for Tropical Storm Studies: Example of Tropical Cyclone Bejisa (2013-2014) in the South-West Indian Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pianezze, J.; Barthe, C.; Bielli, S.; Tulet, P.; Jullien, S.; Cambon, G.; Bousquet, O.; Claeys, M.; Cordier, E.

    2018-03-01

    Ocean-Waves-Atmosphere (OWA) exchanges are not well represented in current Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) systems, which can lead to large uncertainties in tropical cyclone track and intensity forecasts. In order to explore and better understand the impact of OWA interactions on tropical cyclone modeling, a fully coupled OWA system based on the atmospheric model Meso-NH, the oceanic model CROCO, and the wave model WW3 and called MSWC was designed and applied to the case of tropical cyclone Bejisa (2013-2014). The fully coupled OWA simulation shows good agreement with the literature and available observations. In particular, simulated significant wave height is within 30 cm of measurements made with buoys and altimeters. Short-term (wind speed are necessary to produce sea salt aerosol emissions in the right place (in the eyewall of the tropical cyclone) and with the right size distribution, which is critical for cloud microphysics.

  7. EMC Simulation and Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takahashi, Takehiro; Schibuya, Noboru

    The EMC simulation is now widely used in design stage of electronic equipment to reduce electromagnetic noise. As the calculated electromagnetic behaviors of the EMC simulator depends on the inputted EMC model of the equipment, the modeling technique is important to obtain effective results. In this paper, simple outline of the EMC simulator and EMC model are described. Some modeling techniques of EMC simulation are also described with an example of the EMC model which is shield box with aperture.

  8. Errors in the Simulated Heat Budget of CGCMs in the Eastern Part of the Tropical Oceans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hazel, J.; Masarik, M. T.; Mechoso, C. R.; Small, R. J.; Curchitser, E. N.

    2014-12-01

    The simulation of the tropical climate by coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (CGCMs) shows severe warm biases in the sea-surface temperature (SST) field of the southeastern part of the Pacific and the Atlantic (SEP and SEA, respectively). The errors are strongest near the land mass with a broad plume extending west, Also, the equatorial cold tongue is too strong and extends too far to the west. The simulated precipitation field generally shows a persistent double Inter-tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Tremendous effort has been made to improve CGCM performance in general and to address these tropical errors in particular. The present paper start by comparing Taylor diagrams of the SST errors in the SEP and SEA by CGCMs participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phases 3 and 5 (CMIP3 and CMIP5, respectively). Some improvement is noted in models that perform poorly in CMIP3, but the overall performance is broadly similar in the two intercomparison projects. We explore the hypothesis that an improved representation of atmosphere-ocean interaction involving stratocumulus cloud decks and oceanic upwelling is essential to reduce errors in the SEP and SEA. To estimate the error contribution by clouds and upwelling, we examine the upper ocean surface heat flux budget. The resolution of the oceanic component of the CGCMs in both CMIP3 and CMIP5 is too coarse for a realistic representation of upwelling. Therefore, we also examine simulations by the Nested Regional Climate Model (nRCM) system, which is a CGCM with a very high-resolution regional model embedded in coastal regions. The nRCM consists of the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM, run at 1°) coupled to the global Parallel Ocean Program Model (POP, run at 1°) to which the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS6, run at 5-10 km) is nested in selected coastal regions.

  9. [Tropical pyomyositis simulating septic arthritis in AIDS patients. Two cases].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abouzahir, A; Bouchama, R; Azennag, M; Garcin, J M

    2004-01-01

    Tropical pyomyositis (TP) is an acute bacterial infection of skeletal muscles characterized by rapid formation of abscesses. Since the beginning of the AIDS epidemic, interest in TP has increased because of its rising incidence in association with HIV infection and of the problems that it poses for differential diagnosis. Occurrence of TP is a criterion for classification of HIV infected patients in WHO disease stage III. The purpose of this report is to describe two HIV-infected patients who presented TP simulating septic arthritis of the hip and knee respectively. Medical imaging was particularly useful in establishing accurate topographic diagnosis and needle drainage in decreasing the duration of hospitalization and avoiding the need for surgical debridement. Needle puncture must be guided by ultrasound or scan imaging.

  10. Colour of tropical wood and discolouration due to simulated sunlight

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jana Baar

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available This study investigated the wood surface discolouration due to simulated sunlight of three tropical woods native in South America. These woods are commonly used in the Czech Republic. Wood of jatoba (Hymenea courbaril L., massaranduba (Manilkara bidentata A. Chev. and tigerwood (Astronium graveolens Jacq. was exposed to treatment by light of xenon-arc lamp, which simulates outdoor sunlight, for 144 hours. Colour measurements of exposed and non-exposed areas of samples were performed by means of spectrophotometer measuring in CIEL*a*b* colour system. The resulting wood discolouration was evaluated according to value of the overall colour change ∆E*. Changes of particular parameters (L*, a* and b* were also observed during exposure. The wood surface darkened rapidly during the first hours of exposure to simulated sunlight, then samples showed only a slight increase in lightness. After 144 hours of sunlight irradiation the values of chromaticity coordinates were lower compared with the original surface. The initial variations in the lightness of different wood decreased to the minimum after exposure. The most distinctive discolouration of wood was found in the initially brightest wood tigerwood, the darkest massaranduba was affected the least.

  11. LBA-ECO LC-31 Simple Tropical Ecosystem Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — ABSTRACT: This model product provides the Fortran source code and input data for the Simple Tropical Ecosystem Model (SITE). SITE is a simplified point model of...

  12. LBA-ECO LC-31 Simple Tropical Ecosystem Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This model product provides the Fortran source code and input data for the Simple Tropical Ecosystem Model (SITE). SITE is a simplified point model of vegetation...

  13. Downscaling CMIP5 climate models shows increased tropical cyclone activity over the 21st century.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emanuel, Kerry A

    2013-07-23

    A recently developed technique for simulating large [O(10(4))] numbers of tropical cyclones in climate states described by global gridded data is applied to simulations of historical and future climate states simulated by six Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) global climate models. Tropical cyclones downscaled from the climate of the period 1950-2005 are compared with those of the 21st century in simulations that stipulate that the radiative forcing from greenhouse gases increases by over preindustrial values. In contrast to storms that appear explicitly in most global models, the frequency of downscaled tropical cyclones increases during the 21st century in most locations. The intensity of such storms, as measured by their maximum wind speeds, also increases, in agreement with previous results. Increases in tropical cyclone activity are most prominent in the western North Pacific, but are evident in other regions except for the southwestern Pacific. The increased frequency of events is consistent with increases in a genesis potential index based on monthly mean global model output. These results are compared and contrasted with other inferences concerning the effect of global warming on tropical cyclones.

  14. Pesticide transport simulation in a tropical catchment by SWAT

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bannwarth, M.A.; Sangchan, W.; Hugenschmidt, C.; Lamers, M.; Ingwersen, J.; Ziegler, A.D.; Streck, T.

    2014-01-01

    The application of agrochemicals in Southeast Asia is increasing in rate, variety and toxicity with alarming speed. Understanding the behavior of these different contaminants within the environment require comprehensive monitoring programs as well as accurate simulations with hydrological models. We used the SWAT hydrological model to simulate the fate of three different pesticides, one of each usage type (herbicide, fungicide and insecticide) in a mountainous catchment in Northern Thailand. Three key parameters were identified: the sorption coefficient, the decay coefficient and the coefficient controlling pesticide percolation. We yielded satisfactory results simulating pesticide load dynamics during the calibration period (NSE: 0.92–0.67); the results during the validation period were also acceptable (NSE: 0.61–0.28). The results of this study are an important step in understanding the modeling behavior of these pesticides in SWAT and will help to identify thresholds of worst-case scenarios in order to assess the risk for the environment. - Highlights: • We performed a global LH-sensitivity analysis of all pesticide related parameters. • Key physical parameters are associated to percolation, degradation and sorption. • We simulated the measured loads of three different pesticides. • We performed an uncertainty analysis of all pesticide simulations. • All Pesticides differed considerably in their sensitivity and simulation behavior. - Pesticide load simulations of three pesticides were modeled by SWAT, providing clues on how to handle pesticides in future SWAT studies

  15. Evaluation of the Utility of Static and Adaptive Mesh Refinement for Idealized Tropical Cyclone Problems in a Spectral Element Shallow Water Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-04-09

    Refinement for Idealized Tropical Cyclone Problems in a Spectral Element Shallow Water Model 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM...amined for idealized tropical cyclone (TC) simulations in a spectral element f-plane shallow water model. The SMR simulations have varying sizes of...adaptive mesh refinement1 for idealized tropical cyclone problems in a spectral element2 shallow water model3 Eric A. Hendricks ∗ Marine Meteorology Division

  16. An Observing System Simulation Experiment for the use of Unmanned Aircraft Systems in improving tropical cyclone forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prive, N.; Xie, Y.; Koch, S. E.; Atlas, R.; Majumdar, S.; Masutani, M.; Woollen, J.; Riishojgaard, L.

    2010-12-01

    Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) are capable of providing in situ observations in tropical cyclones which are not possible by other means. An Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE) is performed to evaluate the potential use of UAS for improving the analysis and forecasting of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin. The OSSE framework allows many different data sampling strategies to be tested, revealing how the new observations interact with the data assimilation system. In this OSSE, the Global Forecast System and Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation data assimilation package are used as the experimental forecast model, with Nature Run from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts. Improvements in the 3-5 day tropical cyclone track forecasts are seen when tropical cyclones are observed by a high-altitude UAS with dropsonde deployment. The potential use of OSSEs for addressing theoretical aspects of data assimilation and new observing systems will be discussed.

  17. Simulating seasonal tropical cyclone intensities at landfall along the South China coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lok, Charlie C. F.; Chan, Johnny C. L.

    2018-04-01

    A numerical method is developed using a regional climate model (RegCM3) and the Weather Forecast and Research (WRF) model to predict seasonal tropical cyclone (TC) intensities at landfall for the South China region. In designing the model system, three sensitivity tests have been performed to identify the optimal choice of the RegCM3 model domain, WRF horizontal resolution and WRF physics packages. Driven from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System Reanalysis dataset, the model system can produce a reasonable distribution of TC intensities at landfall on a seasonal scale. Analyses of the model output suggest that the strength and extent of the subtropical ridge in the East China Sea are crucial to simulating TC landfalls in the Guangdong and Hainan provinces. This study demonstrates the potential for predicting TC intensities at landfall on a seasonal basis as well as projecting future climate changes using numerical models.

  18. Simulation modeling and arena

    CERN Document Server

    Rossetti, Manuel D

    2015-01-01

    Emphasizes a hands-on approach to learning statistical analysis and model building through the use of comprehensive examples, problems sets, and software applications With a unique blend of theory and applications, Simulation Modeling and Arena®, Second Edition integrates coverage of statistical analysis and model building to emphasize the importance of both topics in simulation. Featuring introductory coverage on how simulation works and why it matters, the Second Edition expands coverage on static simulation and the applications of spreadsheets to perform simulation. The new edition als

  19. Regional modelling of tracer transport by tropical convection – Part 2: Sensitivity to model resolutions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Arteta

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available The general objective of this series of two papers is to evaluate long duration limited-area simulations with idealised tracers as a possible tool to assess the tracer transport in chemistry-transport models (CTMs. In this second paper we analyse the results of three simulations using different horizontal and vertical resolutions. The goal is to study the impact of the model spatial resolution on convective transport of idealized tracer in the tropics. The reference simulation (REF uses a 60 km horizontal resolution and 300 m vertically in the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere (UTLS. A 20 km horizontal resolution simulation (HR is run as well as a simulation with 850 m vertical resolution in the UTLS (CVR. The simulations are run for one month during the SCOUT-O3 field campaign. Aircraft data, TRMM rainrate estimates and radiosoundings have been used to evaluate the simulations. They show that the HR configuration gives generally a better agreement with the measurements than the REF simulation. The CVR simulation gives generally the worst results. The vertical distribution of the tropospheric tracers for the simulations has a similar shape with a ~15 km altitude maximum for the 6h-lifetime tracer of 0.4 ppbv for REF, 1.2 for HR and 0.04 for CVR. These differences are related to the dynamics produced by the three simulations that leads to larger values of the upward velocities on average for HR and lower for CVR compared to REF. HR simulates more frequent and stronger convection leading to enhanced fluxes compared to REF and higher detrainment levels compared to CVR. HR provides also occasional overshoots over the cold point dynamical barrier. For the stratospheric tracers the differences between the three simulations are small. The diurnal cycle of the fluxes of all tracers in the Tropical Tropopause Layer exhibits a maximum linked to the maximum of convective activity.

  20. Tropical Cyclone Track and Structure Sensitivity to Initialization in Idealized Simulations: A Preliminary Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yang Cao

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available In the absence of environmental steering, tropical cyclone (TC motion largely reflects ¡§beta drift¡¨ owing to differential planetary vorticity advection by the storm¡¦s outer circulation. It is known that model physics choices (especially those relating to convection can significantly alter these outer winds and thus the storm track. Here, semi-idealized simulations are used to explore the influence of the initialization on subsequent vortex evolution and motion. Specifically, TCs bred from a buoyant ¡§bubble¡¨ are compared to bogussed vortices having a wide variety of parameterized shapes and sizes matching observations.

  1. Tropical Hydroclimate Change during Heinrich Stadial 1: An Integrative Proxy-Model Synthesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawman, A. E.; Sun, T.; Shanahan, T. M.; Di Nezio, P. N.; Gomez, K.; Piatrunia, N.; Sun, C.; Wu, X.; Kageyama, M.; Merkel, U.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.; Abe-Ouchi, A.; Lohmann, G.; Singarayer, J. S.

    2017-12-01

    We explore the response of tropical climate to abrupt cooling of the North Atlantic (NA) during Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS1) combining paleoclimate proxies with model simulations. A total of 146 published paleoclimate records from tropical locations are used to categorize whether HS1 was wetter, drier, or unchanged relative to a deglacial baseline state. Only records with sufficient resolution to resolve HS1 and sufficient length to characterize the deglacial trend are considered. This synthesis reveals large-scale patterns of hydroclimate change relative to glacial conditions, confirming previously reported weaker Indian summer monsoon, a wetter southern Africa, and drying over the Caribbean. Our synthesis also reveals large-scale drying over the Maritime continent as well as wetter conditions in northern Australia and southern tropical South America. Our reinterpretation of the available proxy data reveals far more complexity and uncertainties for equatorial East Africa, a region that appears to straddle a pattern of dryer conditions to the north and wetter conditions to the south. Overall, these patterns of hydroclimate change depart from a southward shift of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), particularly outside the tropical Atlantic. We explore mechanisms driving these changes using a multi-model ensemble of "hosing" simulations performed relative to glacial conditions. The models show robust weakening of the Afro-Asian Monsoon, which we attribute to ventilation of colder mid-latitude air. Not all models simulate the remaining patterns inferred from the proxy data. The best-agreeing models indicate that cooling over the tropical NA and the Caribbean may be essential to communicate the response to the global tropics. This response can induce warming over the tropical South Atlantic via the wind-evaporation-SST feedback, driving wetter conditions in South Africa and tropical South America. Cooling over the Caribbean is communicated to the Pacific over the

  2. Numerical Simulation of Flood Levels for Tropical Rivers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mohammed, Thamer Ahmed; Said, Salim; Bardaie, Mohd Zohadie; Basri, Shah Nor, E-mail: thamer@enf.upm.edu.my [University Putra Malaysia, Faculty of Engineering (Malaysia)

    2011-02-15

    Flood forecasting is important for flood damage reduction. As a result of advances in the numerical methods and computer technologies, many mathematical models have been developed and used for hydraulic simulation of the flood. These simulations usually include the prediction of the flood width and depth along a watercourse. Results obtained from the application of hydraulic models will help engineers to take precautionary measures to minimize flood damage. Hydraulic models were used to simulate the flood can be classified into dynamic hydraulic models and static hydraulic models. The HEC-2 static hydraulic model was used to predict water surface profiles for Linggi river and Langat river in Malaysia. The model is based on the numerical solution of the one dimensional energy equation of the steady gradually varied flow using the iteration technique. Calibration and verification of the HEC-2 model were conducted using the recorded data for both rivers. After calibration, the model was applied to predict the water surface profiles for Q10, Q30, and Q100 along the watercourse of the Linggi river. The water surface profile for Q200 for Langat river was predicted. The predicted water surface profiles were found in agreement with the recorded water surface profiles. The value of the maximum computed absolute error in the predicted water surface profile was found to be 500 mm while the minimum absolute error was 20 mm only.

  3. Numerical Simulation of Flood Levels for Tropical Rivers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mohammed, Thamer Ahmed; Said, Salim; Bardaie, Mohd Zohadie; Basri, Shah Nor

    2011-01-01

    Flood forecasting is important for flood damage reduction. As a result of advances in the numerical methods and computer technologies, many mathematical models have been developed and used for hydraulic simulation of the flood. These simulations usually include the prediction of the flood width and depth along a watercourse. Results obtained from the application of hydraulic models will help engineers to take precautionary measures to minimize flood damage. Hydraulic models were used to simulate the flood can be classified into dynamic hydraulic models and static hydraulic models. The HEC-2 static hydraulic model was used to predict water surface profiles for Linggi river and Langat river in Malaysia. The model is based on the numerical solution of the one dimensional energy equation of the steady gradually varied flow using the iteration technique. Calibration and verification of the HEC-2 model were conducted using the recorded data for both rivers. After calibration, the model was applied to predict the water surface profiles for Q10, Q30, and Q100 along the watercourse of the Linggi river. The water surface profile for Q200 for Langat river was predicted. The predicted water surface profiles were found in agreement with the recorded water surface profiles. The value of the maximum computed absolute error in the predicted water surface profile was found to be 500 mm while the minimum absolute error was 20 mm only.

  4. How does variation in rainfall affect simulated tropical tree mortality, functional diversity and coexistence?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Powell, T.; Kueppers, L. M.; Koven, C.; Johnson, D. J.; Faybishenko, B.; McDowell, N. G.; Chambers, J. Q.

    2016-12-01

    Land surface models that include demographic and plant hydrodynamic processes are promising tools for characterizing how different drought scenarios may affect carbon cycling of tropical forests. The Ecosystem Demography (ED2) model, now formulated with such features, was used to evaluate how different drought scenarios affect mortality patterns, functional diversity and coexistence of four plant functional types (PFTs) of tropical trees at Barro Colorado Island (BCI), Panama. The four PFTs simulated were early- versus late-successional groups subdivided into drought-tolerant versus -intolerant groups. The hydrodynamic formulation enables the four PFTs to compete mechanistically along two largely orthogonal resource gradients of water and light. The model simulations produced considerable differences in the aboveground biomass response to contrasting drying scenarios that included longer dry seasons, El Nino related droughts, and drier dry seasons. The emergent mortality dynamics reflect the physiological trade-off between water-use and carbon fixation formulated by the hydrodynamic regulation over stomatal conductance. During dry periods, the model predicts increased mortality rates of pioneer trees compared to generalists and drought-intolerant trees compared to -tolerant trees. The model also predicts that surviving cohorts in the smallest size classes of drought-intolerant trees are occasionally primed for release from competition following acute droughts. Observations at BCI showed increased mortality rates for large trees (i.e. >30 cm dbh) during the 1982 El Nino drought, but not subsequent El Nino related droughts. The causes of the elevated mortality rates are explored with the model. Coexistence of four plant functional types in the model is highly sensitive to the parameterization of stem hydraulic conductivity; but, surprisingly not very sensitive to shifts in rainfall patterns. These results demonstrate (a) that plant hydrodynamics are critical for

  5. Idealized tropical cyclone simulations of intermediate complexity: A test case for AGCMs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kevin Reed

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available The paper introduces a moist, deterministic test case of intermediate complexity for Atmospheric General Circulation Models (AGCMs. We suggest pairing an AGCM dynamical core with simple physical parameterizations to test the evolution of a single, idealized, initially weak vortex into a tropical cyclone. The initial conditions are based on an initial vortex seed that is in gradient-wind and hydrostatic balance. The suggested ``simple-physics'' package consists of parameterizations of bulk aerodynamic surface fluxes for moisture, sensible heat and momentum, boundary layer diffusion, and large-scale condensation. Such a configuration includes the important driving mechanisms for tropical cyclones, and leads to a rapid intensification of the initial vortex over a forecast period of ten days. The simple-physics test paradigm is not limited to tropical cyclones, and can be universally applied to other flow fields. The physical parameterizations are described in detail to foster model intercomparisons.The characteristics of the intermediate-complexity test case are demonstrated with the help of four hydrostatic dynamical cores that are part of the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM 5 developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR. In particular, these are the Finite-Volume, Spectral Element, and spectral transform Eulerian and semi-Lagrangian dynamical cores that are coupled to the simple-physics suite. The simulations show that despite the simplicity of the physics forcings the models develop the tropical cyclone at horizontal grid spacings of about 55 km and finer. The simple-physics simulations reveal essential differences in the storm's structure and strength due to the choice of the dynamical core. Similar differences are also seen in complex full-physics aqua-planet experiments with CAM 5 which serve as a motivator for this work. The results suggest that differences in complex full-physics simulations can be, at least

  6. Simulation in Complex Modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nicholas, Paul; Ramsgaard Thomsen, Mette; Tamke, Martin

    2017-01-01

    This paper will discuss the role of simulation in extended architectural design modelling. As a framing paper, the aim is to present and discuss the role of integrated design simulation and feedback between design and simulation in a series of projects under the Complex Modelling framework. Complex...... Restraint developed for the research exhibition Complex Modelling, Meldahls Smedie Gallery, Copenhagen in 2016. Where the direct project aims and outcomes have been reported elsewhere, the aim for this paper is to discuss overarching strategies for working with design integrated simulation....

  7. Sensitivity of Tropical Cyclones to Resolution, Convection Scheme and Ocean Flux Parameterization over Eastern Tropical Pacific and Tropical North Atlantic Oceans in RegCM4 Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuentes-Franco, Ramon; Giorgi, Filippo; Coppola, Erika; Zimmermann, Klaus

    2016-04-01

    The sensitivity of simulated tropical cyclones (TC) to resolution and convection scheme parameterization is investigated over the CORDEX Central America domain. The performance of the simulations, performed for a ten-year period (1989-1998) using ERA-Interim reanalysis as boundary and initial conditions, is assessed considering 50 km and 25 km resolution, and the use of two different convection schemes: Emanuel (Em) and Kain-Fritsch (KF). Two ocean surface fluxes are also compared as well: the Monin-Obukhov scheme, and the one proposed by Zeng et al. (1998). By comparing with observations, for the whole period we assess the spatial representation of the TC, and their intensity. At interannual scale we assess the representation of their variability and at daily scale we compare observed and simulated tracks in order to establish a measure of how similar to observed are the simulated tracks. In general the simulations using KF convection scheme show higher TC density, as well as longer-duration TC (up to 15 days) with stronger winds (> 50ms-1) than those using Em (<40ms-1). Similar results were found for simulations using 25 km respect to 50 km resolution. All simulations show a better spatial representation of simulated TC density and its interannual variability over the Tropical North Atlantic Ocean (TNA) than over the Eastern Tropical Pacific Ocean (ETP). The 25 km resolution simulations show an overestimation of TC density compared to observations over ETP off the coast of Mexico. The duration of the TC in simulations using 25km resolution is similar to the observations, while is underestimated by the 50km resolution. The Monin-Obukhov ocean flux overestimates the number of TCs, while Zeng parameterization give a number similar to observations in both oceans. At daily scale, in general all simulations capture the density of cyclones during highly active TC seasons over the TNA, however the tracks generally are not coincident with observations, except for highly

  8. Generation of a stochastic precipitation model for the tropical climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ng, Jing Lin; Abd Aziz, Samsuzana; Huang, Yuk Feng; Wayayok, Aimrun; Rowshon, MK

    2017-06-01

    A tropical country like Malaysia is characterized by intense localized precipitation with temperatures remaining relatively constant throughout the year. A stochastic modeling of precipitation in the flood-prone Kelantan River Basin is particularly challenging due to the high intermittency of precipitation events of the northeast monsoons. There is an urgent need to have long series of precipitation in modeling the hydrological responses. A single-site stochastic precipitation model that includes precipitation occurrence and an intensity model was developed, calibrated, and validated for the Kelantan River Basin. The simulation process was carried out separately for each station without considering the spatial correlation of precipitation. The Markov chains up to the fifth-order and six distributions were considered. The daily precipitation data of 17 rainfall stations for the study period of 1954-2013 were selected. The results suggested that second- and third-order Markov chains were suitable for simulating monthly and yearly precipitation occurrences, respectively. The fifth-order Markov chain resulted in overestimation of precipitation occurrences. For the mean, distribution, and standard deviation of precipitation amounts, the exponential, gamma, log-normal, skew normal, mixed exponential, and generalized Pareto distributions performed superiorly. However, for the extremes of precipitation, the exponential and log-normal distributions were better while the skew normal and generalized Pareto distributions tend to show underestimations. The log-normal distribution was chosen as the best distribution to simulate precipitation amounts. Overall, the stochastic precipitation model developed is considered a convenient tool to simulate the characteristics of precipitation in the Kelantan River Basin.

  9. Moist Thermodynamics of Tropical Cyclone Formation and Intensification in High-Resolution Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wing, A. A.; Camargo, S. J.; Sobel, A. H.; Kim, D.; Moon, Y.; Bosilovich, M. G.; Murakami, H.; Reed, K. A.; Vecchi, G. A.; Wehner, M. F.; Zarzycki, C. M.; Zhao, M.

    2017-12-01

    In recent years, climate models have improved such that high-resolution simulations are able to reproduce the climatology of tropical cyclone activity with some fidelity and show some skill in seasonal forecasting. However, biases remain in many models, motivating a better understanding of what factors control the representation of tropical cyclone activity in climate models. We explore tropical cyclogenesis and intensification processes in six high-resolution climate models from NOAA/GFDL, NCAR, and NASA, including both coupled and uncoupled configurations. Our analysis framework focuses on how convection, moisture, clouds and related processes are coupled and employs budgets of column moist static energy and the spatial variance of column moist static energy. The latter allows us to quantify the different feedback processes responsible for the amplification of moist static energy anomalies associated with the organization of convection and cyclogenesis, including surface flux feedbacks and cloud-radiative feedbacks. We track the formation and evolution of tropical cyclones in the climate model simulations and apply our analysis along the individual tracks and composited over many tropical cyclones. We use two methods of compositing: a composite over all TC track points in a given intensity range, and a composite relative to the time of lifetime maximum intensity for each storm (at the same stage in the TC life cycle).

  10. Conducting model ecosystem studies in tropical climate zones: Lessons learned from Thailand and way forward

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Daam, Michiel A., E-mail: mdaam@isa.utl.pt [Instituto Superior de Agronomia, Technical University of Lisbon, Tapada da Ajuda, 1349-017 Lisbon (Portugal); Van den Brink, Paul J., E-mail: Paul.vandenbrink@wur.nl [Alterra, Wageningen University and Research centre, P.O. Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen (Netherlands); Wageningen University, Department of Aquatic Ecology and Water Quality Management, Wageningen University and Research centre, P.O. Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen (Netherlands)

    2011-04-15

    Little research has been done so far into the environmental fate and side effects of pesticides in the tropics. In addition, those studies conducted in tropical regions have focused almost exclusively on single species laboratory tests. Hence, fate and effects of pesticides on higher-tier levels have barely been studied under tropical conditions. To address this lack of knowledge, four outdoor aquatic model ecosystem experiments using two different test systems were conducted in Thailand evaluating the insecticide chlorpyrifos, the herbicide linuron and the fungicide carbendazim. Results of these experiments and comparisons of recorded fate and effects with temperate studies have been published previously. The present paper discusses the pros and cons of the methodologies applied and provides indications for i) possible improvements; ii) important aspects that should be considered when performing model ecosystem experiments in the tropics; iii) future research. - Research highlights: > Methodologies used overall seemed adequate to evaluate pesticide stress. > Identification and sampling of tropical macroinvertebrates should be improved. > Additional studies needed for different compounds and greater geographical scale. > Different exposure regimes and ecosystem types should be simulated. > Trophic interrelationship and recovery potential need to be evaluated. - Methodologies for conducting model ecosystem studies in the tropics.

  11. Conducting model ecosystem studies in tropical climate zones: Lessons learned from Thailand and way forward

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Daam, Michiel A.; Van den Brink, Paul J.

    2011-01-01

    Little research has been done so far into the environmental fate and side effects of pesticides in the tropics. In addition, those studies conducted in tropical regions have focused almost exclusively on single species laboratory tests. Hence, fate and effects of pesticides on higher-tier levels have barely been studied under tropical conditions. To address this lack of knowledge, four outdoor aquatic model ecosystem experiments using two different test systems were conducted in Thailand evaluating the insecticide chlorpyrifos, the herbicide linuron and the fungicide carbendazim. Results of these experiments and comparisons of recorded fate and effects with temperate studies have been published previously. The present paper discusses the pros and cons of the methodologies applied and provides indications for i) possible improvements; ii) important aspects that should be considered when performing model ecosystem experiments in the tropics; iii) future research. - Research highlights: → Methodologies used overall seemed adequate to evaluate pesticide stress. → Identification and sampling of tropical macroinvertebrates should be improved. → Additional studies needed for different compounds and greater geographical scale. → Different exposure regimes and ecosystem types should be simulated. → Trophic interrelationship and recovery potential need to be evaluated. - Methodologies for conducting model ecosystem studies in the tropics.

  12. Model simulations of rainfall over southern Africa and its eastern ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Rainfall simulations over southern and tropical Africa in the form of low-resolution Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) simulations and higher resolution National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis downscalings are presented and evaluated in this paper. The model used is the ...

  13. Simulation in Complex Modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nicholas, Paul; Ramsgaard Thomsen, Mette; Tamke, Martin

    2017-01-01

    This paper will discuss the role of simulation in extended architectural design modelling. As a framing paper, the aim is to present and discuss the role of integrated design simulation and feedback between design and simulation in a series of projects under the Complex Modelling framework. Complex...... performance, engage with high degrees of interdependency and allow the emergence of design agency and feedback between the multiple scales of architectural construction. This paper presents examples for integrated design simulation from a series of projects including Lace Wall, A Bridge Too Far and Inflated...... Restraint developed for the research exhibition Complex Modelling, Meldahls Smedie Gallery, Copenhagen in 2016. Where the direct project aims and outcomes have been reported elsewhere, the aim for this paper is to discuss overarching strategies for working with design integrated simulation....

  14. An Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE to Assess the Impact of Doppler Wind Lidar (DWL Measurements on the Numerical Simulation of a Tropical Cyclone

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lei Zhang

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The importance of wind observations has been recognized for many years. However, wind observations—especially three-dimensional global wind measurements—are very limited. A satellite-based Doppler Wind Lidar (DWL is proposed to measure three-dimensional wind profiles using remote sensing techniques. Assimilating these observations into a mesoscale model is expected to improve the performance of the numerical weather prediction (NWP models. In order to examine the potential impact of the DWL three-dimensional wind profile observations on the numerical simulation and prediction of tropical cyclones, a set of observing simulation system experiments (OSSEs is performed using the advanced research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF model and its three-dimensional variational (3DVAR data assimilation system. Results indicate that assimilating the DWL wind observations into the mesoscale numerical model has significant potential for improving tropical cyclone track and intensity forecasts.

  15. Scientific Modeling and simulations

    CERN Document Server

    Diaz de la Rubia, Tomás

    2009-01-01

    Showcases the conceptual advantages of modeling which, coupled with the unprecedented computing power through simulations, allow scientists to tackle the formibable problems of our society, such as the search for hydrocarbons, understanding the structure of a virus, or the intersection between simulations and real data in extreme environments

  16. Computer Modeling and Simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pronskikh, V. S. [Fermilab

    2014-05-09

    Verification and validation of computer codes and models used in simulation are two aspects of the scientific practice of high importance and have recently been discussed by philosophers of science. While verification is predominantly associated with the correctness of the way a model is represented by a computer code or algorithm, validation more often refers to model’s relation to the real world and its intended use. It has been argued that because complex simulations are generally not transparent to a practitioner, the Duhem problem can arise for verification and validation due to their entanglement; such an entanglement makes it impossible to distinguish whether a coding error or model’s general inadequacy to its target should be blamed in the case of the model failure. I argue that in order to disentangle verification and validation, a clear distinction between computer modeling (construction of mathematical computer models of elementary processes) and simulation (construction of models of composite objects and processes by means of numerical experimenting with them) needs to be made. Holding on to that distinction, I propose to relate verification (based on theoretical strategies such as inferences) to modeling and validation, which shares the common epistemology with experimentation, to simulation. To explain reasons of their intermittent entanglement I propose a weberian ideal-typical model of modeling and simulation as roles in practice. I suggest an approach to alleviate the Duhem problem for verification and validation generally applicable in practice and based on differences in epistemic strategies and scopes

  17. Automated Simulation Model Generation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huang, Y.

    2013-01-01

    One of today's challenges in the field of modeling and simulation is to model increasingly larger and more complex systems. Complex models take long to develop and incur high costs. With the advances in data collection technologies and more popular use of computer-aided systems, more data has become

  18. Mass balance model parameter transferability on a tropical glacier

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gurgiser, Wolfgang; Mölg, Thomas; Nicholson, Lindsey; Kaser, Georg

    2013-04-01

    The mass balance and melt water production of glaciers is of particular interest in the Peruvian Andes where glacier melt water has markedly increased water supply during the pronounced dry seasons in recent decades. However, the melt water contribution from glaciers is projected to decrease with appreciable negative impacts on the local society within the coming decades. Understanding mass balance processes on tropical glaciers is a prerequisite for modeling present and future glacier runoff. As a first step towards this aim we applied a process-based surface mass balance model in order to calculate observed ablation at two stakes in the ablation zone of Shallap Glacier (4800 m a.s.l., 9°S) in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru. Under the tropical climate, the snow line migrates very frequently across most of the ablation zone all year round causing large temporal and spatial variations of glacier surface conditions and related ablation. Consequently, pronounced differences between the two chosen stakes and the two years were observed. Hourly records of temperature, humidity, wind speed, short wave incoming radiation, and precipitation are available from an automatic weather station (AWS) on the moraine near the glacier for the hydrological years 2006/07 and 2007/08 while stake readings are available at intervals of between 14 to 64 days. To optimize model parameters, we used 1000 model simulations in which the most sensitive model parameters were varied randomly within their physically meaningful ranges. The modeled surface height change was evaluated against the two stake locations in the lower ablation zone (SH11, 4760m) and in the upper ablation zone (SH22, 4816m), respectively. The optimal parameter set for each point achieved good model skill but if we transfer the best parameter combination from one stake site to the other stake site model errors increases significantly. The same happens if we optimize the model parameters for each year individually and transfer

  19. The interannual variability in the tropical Indian Ocean as simulated by a CGCM

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gualdi, S.; Navarra, A.; Masina, S. [INGV, v. Gobetti 101, 40129, Bologna (Italy); Guilyardi, E. [CGAM, Reading (United Kingdom); Delecluse, P. [LODYC, Paris (France)

    2003-04-01

    The interannual variability in the tropical Indian Ocean, and in particular the Indian Ocean dipole mode (IODM), is investigated using both observations and a multi-decadal simulations performed by the coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model SINTEX. Overall, the characteristics of the simulated IODM are close to the features of the observed mode. Evidence of significant correlations between sea level pressure anomalies in the southeastern Indian Ocean and sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans have been found both in observations and a multi-decadal simulation. In particular, a positive SLP anomaly in the southeastern part of the basin seems to produce favorable conditions for the development of an IODM event. The role played by the ocean dynamics both in the developing and closing phases of the IODM events is also investigated. Our results suggest that, during the developing phase, the heat content and SST variability associated with the IODM are influenced by a local response of the ocean to the winds, and a remote response with the excitation of Kelvin and Rossby waves. Ocean wave dynamics appear to be important also during the dying phase of the IODM, when equatorial downwelling Kelvin waves transport positive heat content anomalies from the western to the eastern part of the basin, suppressing the zonal heat content anomaly gradient. The results obtained from the model suggest a mechanism for the IODM. This mechanism is generally consistent with the characteristics of the observed IODM. Furthermore, it might give some clue in understanding the correlation between IODM and ENSO activity found both in the model and in the observations. (orig.)

  20. Simulation capability of tropical and extratropical seasonal climate anomalies over South America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Labraga, Juan Carlos

    2005-09-01

    An ensemble of 20 extended integrations of the atmospheric model CSIRO Mark 2, forced with the sea-surface temperature observed during the 1986-1998 period, was performed to analyze the simulation capability of seasonal climate anomalies over South America and adjacent oceanic areas. Variations of the simulation skill within the region and during the experimental period were assessed through standard statistical measures and compared to the signal-to-noise ratio distribution. Before the skill assessment, model systematic errors were thoroughly evaluated. The results confirm that the simulation skill is very high in tropical oceanic areas, and decreases rapidly towards middle and high latitudes. Model performance at mid and high atmospheric levels is substantially better than at low levels. Relatively high simulation capability was found over the Pacific Ocean between the equator and the Antarctic coast, which is coherent with the presence of three relative maximums in the signal-to-noise ratio, similar to the increase of the forced variance found by several authors over much of the Pacific-North American pattern region. Rainfall rate and second-order moments associated with the cyclonic activity and the meridional eddy fluxes of heat and humidity are better simulated in a narrow strip parallel to the SPCZ and extending further southeast into mid latitudes of the continent. The simulation skill noticeably improves during the warm and cold ENSO phases, in correspondence with an intensification of the signal-to-noise ratio, and useful rainfall anomaly simulations can be obtained over the Amazonas and Rio de la Plata river basins.

  1. Simulation capability of tropical and extratropical seasonal climate anomalies over South America

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Labraga, Juan Carlos [Centro Nacional Patagonico - CONICET, Puerto Madryn (Argentina)

    2005-09-01

    An ensemble of 20 extended integrations of the atmospheric model CSIRO Mark 2, forced with the sea-surface temperature observed during the 1986-1998 period, was performed to analyze the simulation capability of seasonal climate anomalies over South America and adjacent oceanic areas. Variations of the simulation skill within the region and during the experimental period were assessed through standard statistical measures and compared to the signal-to-noise ratio distribution. Before the skill assessment, model systematic errors were thoroughly evaluated. The results confirm that the simulation skill is very high in tropical oceanic areas, and decreases rapidly towards middle and high latitudes. Model performance at mid and high atmospheric levels is substantially better than at low levels. Relatively high simulation capability was found over the Pacific Ocean between the equator and the Antarctic coast, which is coherent with the presence of three relative maximums in the signal-to-noise ratio, similar to the increase of the forced variance found by several authors over much of the Pacific-North American pattern region. Rainfall rate and second-order moments associated with the cyclonic activity and the meridional eddy fluxes of heat and humidity are better simulated in a narrow strip parallel to the SPCZ and extending further southeast into mid latitudes of the continent. The simulation skill noticeably improves during the warm and cold ENSO phases, in correspondence with an intensification of the signal-to-noise ratio, and useful rainfall anomaly simulations can be obtained over the Amazonas and Rio de la Plata river basins. (orig.)

  2. Improving NASA's Multiscale Modeling Framework for Tropical Cyclone Climate Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Bo-Wen; Nelson, Bron; Cheung, Samson; Tao, Wei-Kuo

    2013-01-01

    One of the current challenges in tropical cyclone (TC) research is how to improve our understanding of TC interannual variability and the impact of climate change on TCs. Recent advances in global modeling, visualization, and supercomputing technologies at NASA show potential for such studies. In this article, the authors discuss recent scalability improvement to the multiscale modeling framework (MMF) that makes it feasible to perform long-term TC-resolving simulations. The MMF consists of the finite-volume general circulation model (fvGCM), supplemented by a copy of the Goddard cumulus ensemble model (GCE) at each of the fvGCM grid points, giving 13,104 GCE copies. The original fvGCM implementation has a 1D data decomposition; the revised MMF implementation retains the 1D decomposition for most of the code, but uses a 2D decomposition for the massive copies of GCEs. Because the vast majority of computation time in the MMF is spent computing the GCEs, this approach can achieve excellent speedup without incurring the cost of modifying the entire code. Intelligent process mapping allows differing numbers of processes to be assigned to each domain for load balancing. The revised parallel implementation shows highly promising scalability, obtaining a nearly 80-fold speedup by increasing the number of cores from 30 to 3,335.

  3. Degree of simulated suppression of Atlantic tropical cyclones modulated by flavour of El Niño

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patricola, Christina M.; Chang, Ping; Saravanan, R.

    2016-02-01

    El Niño/Southern Oscillation, the dominant mode of interannual climate variability, strongly influences tropical cyclone activity. During canonical El Niño, the warm phase, Atlantic tropical cyclones are suppressed. However, the past decades have witnessed different El Niño characteristics, ranging from warming over the east Pacific cold tongue in canonical events to warming near the warm pool, known as warm pool El Niño or central Pacific El Niño. Global climate models project possible future increases in intensity of warm pool El Niño. Here we use a climate model at a resolution sufficient to explicitly simulate tropical cyclones to investigate how these flavours of El Niño may affect such cyclones. We show that Atlantic tropical cyclones are suppressed regardless of El Niño type. For the warmest 10% of each El Niño flavour, warm pool El Niño is substantially less effective at suppressing Atlantic tropical cyclones than cold tongue El Niño. However, for the same absolute warming intensity, the opposite is true. This is because less warming is required near the warm pool to satisfy the sea surface temperature threshold for deep convection, which leads to tropical cyclone suppression through vertical wind shear enhancements. We conclude that an understanding of future changes in not only location, but also intensity and frequency, of El Niño is important for forecasts and projections of Atlantic tropical cyclone activity.

  4. AEGIS geologic simulation model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Foley, M.G.

    1982-01-01

    The Geologic Simulation Model (GSM) is used by the AEGIS (Assessment of Effectiveness of Geologic Isolation Systems) program at the Pacific Northwest Laboratory to simulate the dynamic geology and hydrology of a geologic nuclear waste repository site over a million-year period following repository closure. The GSM helps to organize geologic/hydrologic data; to focus attention on active natural processes by requiring their simulation; and, through interactive simulation and calibration, to reduce subjective evaluations of the geologic system. During each computer run, the GSM produces a million-year geologic history that is possible for the region and the repository site. In addition, the GSM records in permanent history files everything that occurred during that time span. Statistical analyses of data in the history files of several hundred simulations are used to classify typical evolutionary paths, to establish the probabilities associated with deviations from the typical paths, and to determine which types of perturbations of the geologic/hydrologic system, if any, are most likely to occur. These simulations will be evaluated by geologists familiar with the repository region to determine validity of the results. Perturbed systems that are determined to be the most realistic, within whatever probability limits are established, will be used for the analyses that involve radionuclide transport and dose models. The GSM is designed to be continuously refined and updated. Simulation models are site specific, and, although the submodels may have limited general applicability, the input data equirements necessitate detailed characterization of each site before application

  5. A climatological model of North Indian Ocean tropical cyclone genesis, tracks and landfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wahiduzzaman, Mohammad; Oliver, Eric C. J.; Wotherspoon, Simon J.; Holbrook, Neil J.

    2017-10-01

    Extensive damage and loss of life can be caused by tropical cyclones (TCs) that make landfall. Modelling of TC landfall probability is beneficial to insurance/re-insurance companies, decision makers, government policy and planning, and residents in coastal areas. In this study, we develop a climatological model of tropical cyclone genesis, tracks and landfall for North Indian Ocean (NIO) rim countries based on kernel density estimation, a generalised additive model (GAM) including an Euler integration step, and landfall detection using a country mask approach. Using a 35-year record (1979-2013) of tropical cyclone track observations from the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (part of the International Best Track Archive Climate Stewardship Version 6), the GAM is fitted to the observed cyclone track velocities as a smooth function of location in each season. The distribution of cyclone genesis points is approximated by kernel density estimation. The model simulated TCs are randomly selected from the fitted kernel (TC genesis), and the cyclone paths (TC tracks), represented by the GAM together with the application of stochastic innovations at each step, are simulated to generate a suite of NIO rim landfall statistics. Three hindcast validation methods are applied to evaluate the integrity of the model. First, leave-one-out cross validation is applied whereby the country of landfall is determined by the majority vote (considering the location by only highest percentage of landfall) from the simulated tracks. Second, the probability distribution of simulated landfall is evaluated against the observed landfall. Third, the distances between the point of observed landfall and simulated landfall are compared and quantified. Overall, the model shows very good cross-validated hindcast skill of modelled landfalling cyclones against observations in each of the NIO tropical cyclone seasons and for most NIO rim countries, with only a relatively small difference in the percentage of

  6. Modelling of Box Type Solar Cooker Performance in a Tropical ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Thermal performance model of box type solar cooker with loaded water is presented. The model was developed using the method of Funk to estimate cooking power in terms of climatic and design parameters for box type solar cooker in a tropical environment. Coefficients for each term used in the model were determined ...

  7. Impact of different vertical transport representations on simulating processes in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ploeger, Felix

    2011-07-06

    The chemical and dynamical processes in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL) control the amount of radiatively active species like water vapour and ozone in the stratosphere, and hence turn out to be crucial for atmospheric trends and climate change. Chemistry transport models and chemistry climate models are suitable tools to understand these processes. But model results are subject to uncertainties arising from the parametrization of model physics. In this thesis the sensitivity of model predictions to the choice of the vertical transport representation will be analysed. Therefore, backtrajectories are calculated in the TTL, based on different diabatic and kinematic transport representations using ERA-Interim and operational ECMWF data. For diabatic transport on potential temperature levels, the vertical velocity is deduced from the ERA-Interim diabatic heat budget. For kinematic transport on pressure levels, the vertical wind is used as vertical velocity. It is found that all terms in the diabatic heat budget are necessary to cause transport from the troposphere to the stratosphere. In particular, clear-sky heating rates alone miss very important processes. Many characteristics of transport in the TTL turn out to depend very sensitively on the choice of the vertical transport representation. Timescales for tropical troposphere-to-stratosphere transport vary between one and three months, with respect to the chosen representation. Moreover, for diabatic transport ascent is found throughout the upper TTL, whereas for kinematic transport regions of mean subsidence occur, particularly above the maritime continent. To investigate the sensitivity of simulated trace gas distributions in the TTL to the transport representation, a conceptual approach is presented to predict water vapour and ozone concentrations from backtrajectories, based on instantaneous freeze-drying and photochemical ozone production. It turns out that ozone predictions and vertical dispersion of the

  8. Validation of simulation models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rehman, Muniza; Pedersen, Stig Andur

    2012-01-01

    In philosophy of science, the interest for computational models and simulations has increased heavily during the past decades. Different positions regarding the validity of models have emerged but the views have not succeeded in capturing the diversity of validation methods. The wide variety...

  9. Flood simulation model using XP-SWMM along Terengganu River ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Malaysia is one of the tropical countries in the world with heavy rainfall throughout the year and floods are the most common disaster in Malaysia. Flood simulation model was carried out along Terengganu River for dry and rainy seasons. The result of the simulation shows the water level reached its maximum level at the 1st ...

  10. Tropical peatland carbon dynamics simulated for scenarios of disturbance and restoration and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frolking, S. E.; Warren, M.; Dai, Z.; Kurnianto, S.; Hagen, S. C.

    2015-12-01

    Tropical peatlands contain a globally significant carbon pool. Southeast Asian peatlands are being deforested, drained and burned at very high rates, mostly for conversion to industrial oil palm or pulp and paper plantations. The climate mitigation potential of tropical peatlands has gained increasing attention in recent years as persistent greenhouse gas emissions can be avoided or decreased if peatlands remain intact or are rehabilitated. In addition, peatland conservation or rehabilitation for climate mitigation also includes multiple co-benefits such as maintenance of ecosystem services, biodiversity, and air quality from reduced fire occurrence. Inventory guidelines and methodologies have only recently become available, and are based on few data from a limited number of sites. Few heuristic tools are available to evaluate the impact of management practices on carbon dynamics in tropical peatlands, and the potential climate mitigation benefits of peatland restoration. We used a process based dynamic tropical peatland model to explore the C dynamics of several peatland management trajectories represented by hypothetical scenarios, within the context of simulated 21st century climate change. All scenarios with land use, including those with optimal restoration, simulate C loss over the 21st century, with C losses ranging from 10% to essentially 100% of pre-disturbance values. Fire, either prescribed as part of a crop rotation cycle, or stochastic occurrences in sub-optimally managed degraded land can be the dominant C-loss pathway, particularly in the drier climate scenario we tested. A single 25-year oil palm rotation, with a prescribed initial burn, lost 40-50 kg C/m2, equivalent to accumulation during the previous 500 years, 10-30% of which was restored in 75 years of optimal restoration. Our results indicate that even under the most optimistic scenario of hydrological and forest restoration and the wettest climate regime, only about one-third of the carbon

  11. A Top-Down Pathway to Secondary Eyewall Formation in Simulated Tropical Cyclones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tyner, Bryce; Zhu, Ping; Zhang, Jun A.; Gopalakrishnan, Sundararaman; Marks, Frank; Tallapragada, Vijay

    2018-01-01

    Idealized and real-case simulations conducted using the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) model demonstrate a "top-down" pathway to secondary eyewall formation (SEF) for tropical cyclones (TCs). For the real-case simulations of Hurricane Rita (2005) and Hurricane Edouard (2014), a comparison to observations reveals the timing and overall characteristics of the simulated SEF appear realistic. An important control of the top-down pathway to SEF is the amount and radial-height distribution of hydrometeors at outer radii. Examination into the simulated hydrometeor particle fall speed distribution reveals that the HWRF operational microphysics scheme is not producing the lightest hydrometeors, which are likely present in observed TCs and are most conducive to being advected from the primary eyewall to the outer rainband region of the TC. Triggering of SEF begins with the fallout of hydrometeors at the outer radii from the TC primary eyewall, where penetrative downdrafts resulting from evaporative cooling of precipitation promote the development of local convection. As the convection-induced radial convergence that is initially located in the midtroposphere extends downward into the boundary layer, it results in the eruption of high entropy air out of the boundary layer. This leads to the rapid development of rainband convection and subsequent SEF via a positive feedback among precipitation, convection, and boundary layer processes.

  12. Land surface albedo bias in climate models and its association with tropical rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levine, Xavier J.; Boos, William R.

    2017-06-01

    The influence of surface albedo on tropical precipitation is widely appreciated, but albedo bias over snow-free areas in climate models has been studied little. Here historical Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 simulations are shown to exhibit large multimodel mean bias and intermodel variability in boreal summer mean surface broadband shortwave albedo. Intermodel variability in this albedo is globally coherent over vegetated regions and correlates with intermodel tropical precipitation variability. Evidence supports the hypothesis that these spatially coherent albedo variations cause precipitation variations. Specifically, spatial structures of albedo and precipitation variations are distinct, suggesting the latter do not cause the former by darkening soil. Furthermore, simulated interannual albedo variance is small compared to intermodel albedo variance, while the ratio of interannual to intermodel precipitation variance is much larger. Finally, imposing the dominant pattern of intermodel albedo variability in one climate model causes a precipitation change with structure similar to that of the intermodel variability.

  13. The 3-D Tropical Convective Cloud Spectrum in AMIE Radar Observations and Global Climate Simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schumacher, Courtney [Texas A & M Univ., College Station, TX (United States). Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences

    2015-08-31

    During the three years of this grant performance, the PI and her research group have made a number of significant contributions towards determining properties of tropical deep convective clouds and how models depict and respond to the heating associated with tropical convective systems. The PI has also been an active ARM/ASR science team member, including playing a significant role in AMIE and GoAmazon2014/5. She served on the DOE ASR radar science steering committee and was a joint chair of the Mesoscale Convective Organization group under the Cloud Life Cycle working group. This grant has funded a number of graduate students, many of them women, and the PI and her group have presented their DOE-supported work at various universities and national meetings. The PI and her group participated in the AMIE (2011-12) and GoAmazon2014/5 (2014-15) DOE field deployments that occurred in the tropical Indian Ocean and Brazilian Amazon, respectively. AMIE observational results (DePasquale et al. 2014, Feng et al. 2014, Ahmed and Schumacher 2015) focus on the variation and possible importance of Kelvin waves in various phases of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), on the synergy of the different wavelength radars deployed on Addu Atoll, and on the importance of humidity thresholds in the tropics on stratiform rain production. Much of the PIs GoAmazon2014/5 results to date relate to overviews of the observations made during the field campaign (Martin et al. 2015, 2016; Fuentes et al. 2016), but also include the introduction of the descending arm and its link to ozone transport from the mid-troposphere to the surface (Gerken et al. 2016). Vertical motion and mass flux profiles from GoAmazon (Giangrande et al. 2016) also show interesting patterns between seasons and provide targets for model simulations. Results from TWP-ICE (Schumacher et al. 2015), which took place in Darwin, Australia in 2006 show that vertical velocity retrievals from the profilers provide structure to

  14. A critical assessment of the JULES land surface model hydrology for humid tropical environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zulkafli, Z.; Buytaert, W.; Onof, C.; Lavado, W.; Guyot, J. L.

    2013-03-01

    Global land surface models (LSMs) such as the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) are originally developed to provide surface boundary conditions for climate models. They are increasingly used for hydrological simulation, for instance to simulate the impacts of land use changes and other perturbations on the water cycle. This study investigates how well such models represent the major hydrological fluxes at the relevant spatial and temporal scales - an important question for reliable model applications in poorly understood, data-scarce environments. The JULES-LSM is implemented in a 360 000 km2 humid tropical mountain basin of the Peruvian Andes-Amazon at 12-km grid resolution, forced with daily satellite and climate reanalysis data. The simulations are evaluated using conventional discharge-based evaluation methods, and by further comparing the magnitude and internal variability of the basin surface fluxes such as evapotranspiration, throughfall, and surface and subsurface runoff of the model with those observed in similar environments elsewhere. We find reasonably positive model efficiencies and high correlations between the simulated and observed streamflows, but high root-mean-square errors affecting the performance in smaller, upper sub-basins. We attribute this to errors in the water balance and JULES-LSM's inability to model baseflow. We also found a tendency to under-represent the high evapotranspiration rates of the region. We conclude that strategies to improve the representation of tropical systems to be (1) addressing errors in the forcing and (2) incorporating local wetland and regional floodplain in the subsurface representation.

  15. Discrepancies in tropical upper tropospheric warming between atmospheric circulation models and satellites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Po-Chedley, Stephen; Fu Qiang

    2012-01-01

    Recent studies have examined tropical upper tropospheric warming by comparing coupled atmosphere–ocean global circulation model (GCM) simulations from Phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) with satellite and radiosonde observations of warming in the tropical upper troposphere relative to the lower-middle troposphere. These studies showed that models tended to overestimate increases in static stability between the upper and lower-middle troposphere. We revisit this issue using atmospheric GCMs with prescribed historical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and coupled atmosphere–ocean GCMs that participated in the latest model intercomparison project, CMIP5. It is demonstrated that even with historical SSTs as a boundary condition, most atmospheric models exhibit excessive tropical upper tropospheric warming relative to the lower-middle troposphere as compared with satellite-borne microwave sounding unit measurements. It is also shown that the results from CMIP5 coupled atmosphere–ocean GCMs are similar to findings from CMIP3 coupled GCMs. The apparent model-observational difference for tropical upper tropospheric warming represents an important problem, but it is not clear whether the difference is a result of common biases in GCMs, biases in observational datasets, or both. (letter)

  16. PSH Transient Simulation Modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Muljadi, Eduard [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2017-12-21

    PSH Transient Simulation Modeling presentation from the WPTO FY14 - FY16 Peer Review. Transient effects are an important consideration when designing a PSH system, yet numerical techniques for hydraulic transient analysis still need improvements for adjustable-speed (AS) reversible pump-turbine applications.

  17. Wake modeling and simulation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Gunner Chr.; Madsen Aagaard, Helge; Larsen, Torben J.

    We present a consistent, physically based theory for the wake meandering phenomenon, which we consider of crucial importance for the overall description of wind turbine loadings in wind farms. In its present version the model is confined to single wake situations. The model philosophy does, howev...... methodology has been implemented in the aeroelastic code HAWC2, and example simulations of wake situations, from the small Tjæreborg wind farm, have been performed showing satisfactory agreement between predictions and measurements...

  18. Forty years experience in developing and using rainfall simulators under tropical and Mediterranean conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pla-Sentís, Ildefonso; Nacci, Silvana

    2010-05-01

    Rainfall simulation has been used as a practical tool for evaluating the interaction of falling water drops on the soil surface, to measure both stability of soil aggregates to drop impact and water infiltration rates. In both cases it is tried to simulate the effects of natural rainfall, which usually occurs at very different, variable and erratic rates and intensities. One of the main arguments against the use of rainfall simulators is the difficulty to reproduce the size, final velocity and kinetic energy of the drops in natural rainfall. Since the early 70´s we have been developing and using different kinds of rainfall simulators, both at laboratory and field levels, and under tropical and Mediterranean soil and climate conditions, in flat and sloping lands. They have been mainly used to evaluate the relative effects of different land use and management, including different cropping systems, tillage practices, surface soil conditioning, surface covers, etc. on soil water infiltration, on runoff and on erosion. Our experience is that in any case it is impossible to reproduce the variable size distribution and terminal velocity of raindrops, and the variable changes in intensity of natural storms, under a particular climate condition. In spite of this, with the use of rainfall simulators it is possible to obtain very good information, which if it is properly interpreted in relation to each particular condition (land and crop management, rainfall characteristics, measurement conditions, etc.) may be used as one of the parameters for deducing and modelling soil water balance and soil moisture regime under different land use and management and variable climate conditions. Due to the possibility for a better control of the intensity of simulated rainfall and of the size of water drops, and the possibility to make more repeated measurements under very variable soil and land conditions, both in the laboratory and specially in the field, the better results have been

  19. Tropical Cyclones, Hurricanes, and Climate: NASA's Global Cloud-Scale Simulations and New Observations that Characterize the Lifecycle of Hurricanes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Putman, William M.

    2010-01-01

    One of the primary interests of Global Change research is the impact of climate changes and climate variability on extreme weather events, such as intense tropical storms and hurricanes. Atmospheric climate models run at resolutions of global weather models have been used to study the impact of climate variability, as seen in sea surface temperatures, on the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones. NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System Model, version 5 (GEOS-5) in ensembles run at 50 km resolution has been able to reproduce the interannual variations of tropical cyclone frequency seen in nature. This, and other global models, have found it much more difficult to reproduce the interannual changes in intensity, a result that reflects the inability of the models to simulate the intensities of the most extreme storms. Better representation of the structures of cyclones requires much higher resolution models. Such improved representation is also fundamental to making best use of satellite observations. In collaboration with NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, GEOS-5 now has the capability of running at much higher resolution to better represent cloud-scale resolutions. Global simulations at cloud-permitting resolutions (10- to 3.5-km) allows for the development of realistic tropical cyclones from tropical storm 119 km/hr winds) to category 5 (>249km1hr winds) intensities. GEOS-5 has produced realistic rain-band and eye-wall structures in tropical cyclones that can be directly analyzed against satellite observations. For the first time a global climate model is capable of representing realistic intensity and track variability on a seasonal scale across basins. GEOS-5 is also used in assimilation mode to test the impact of NASA's observations on tropical cyclone forecasts. One such test, for tropical cyclone Nargis in the Indian Ocean in May 2008, showed that observations from Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit

  20. Planetary wave prediction: Benefits of tropical data and global models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Somerville, R. C. J.

    1985-01-01

    Skillful numerical predictions of midlatitude atmospheric planetary waves generally require both tropical data for the initial conditions and a global domain for the forecast model. The lack of either adequate tropical observations or a global domain typically leads to a significant degradation of forecast skill in middle latitudes within the first one to three days of the forecast period. These effects were first discovered by numerical experimentation. They were subsequently explained theoretically, and their importance for practical forecasting was confirmed in a series of prediction experiments using FGGE data.

  1. Towards a Statistical Model of Tropical Cyclone Genesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandez, A.; Kashinath, K.; McAuliffe, J.; Prabhat, M.; Stark, P. B.; Wehner, M. F.

    2017-12-01

    Tropical Cyclones (TCs) are important extreme weather phenomena that have a strong impact on humans. TC forecasts are largely based on global numerical models that produce TC-like features. Aspects of Tropical Cyclones such as their formation/genesis, evolution, intensification and dissipation over land are important and challenging problems in climate science. This study investigates the environmental conditions associated with Tropical Cyclone Genesis (TCG) by testing how accurately a statistical model can predict TCG in the CAM5.1 climate model. TCG events are defined using TECA software @inproceedings{Prabhat2015teca, title={TECA: Petascale Pattern Recognition for Climate Science}, author={Prabhat and Byna, Surendra and Vishwanath, Venkatram and Dart, Eli and Wehner, Michael and Collins, William D}, booktitle={Computer Analysis of Images and Patterns}, pages={426-436}, year={2015}, organization={Springer}} to extract TC trajectories from CAM5.1. L1-regularized logistic regression (L1LR) is applied to the CAM5.1 output. The predictions have nearly perfect accuracy for data not associated with TC tracks and high accuracy differentiating between high vorticity and low vorticity systems. The model's active variables largely correspond to current hypotheses about important factors for TCG, such as wind field patterns and local pressure minima, and suggests new routes for investigation. Furthermore, our model's predictions of TC activity are competitive with the output of an instantaneous version of Emanuel and Nolan's Genesis Potential Index (GPI) @inproceedings{eman04, title = "Tropical cyclone activity and the global climate system", author = "Kerry Emanuel and Nolan, {David S.}", year = "2004", pages = "240-241", booktitle = "26th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology"}.

  2. The medium precipitation in Colombia by the light of the observations, the climatic simulation and the tropical medium circulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Montoya Gaviria, Gerardo de Jesus; Eslava R, Jesus Antonio; Pabon Caicedo, Jose Daniel

    2001-01-01

    An analysis of the physical mechanisms governing the annual precipitation cycle formation over the Colombian territory is made. This analysis is carried out using climate simulations, means Reanalysis values and is supported by the existing theory about the mean tropical circulation. Some results are: Judging by the wind discontinuity; the Inter tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) is fractionated over the South American Continent and remains all the year in the northern hemisphere in both oceans: Pacific and Atlantic. The low pressure system which forms in middle latitudes over the South American Continent during the Austral summer, deep penetrates onto tropical latitudes where, probably merges with the equatorial low of this season. There is a strong influence of the north eastern trades over the north eastern region of South America specially from December to February. As these winds enter onto the South American Continent, they associate with a current, does not yet mentioned in the existing literature, witch bounds the eastern side of the Andes and deep penetrates until middle latitudes in South America during this season. It is confirmed by the Reanalysis that seasonal migration of the ITCZ over Colombia may be used to explain the annual cycle precipitation formation over the most Colombia Territory. The results of this study are useful to have a more precise understanding of the tropical circulation over the Colombia Territory and can also be used in meteorological a hydrological modelling validation studies

  3. Characteristics of Tropical Cyclones in High-resolution Models in the Present Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaevitz, Daniel A.; Camargo, Suzana J.; Sobel, Adam H.; Jonas, Jeffrey A.; Kim, Daehyun; Kumar, Arun; LaRow, Timothy E.; Lim, Young-Kwon; Murakami, Hiroyuki; Reed, Kevin; hide

    2014-01-01

    The global characteristics of tropical cyclones (TCs) simulated by several climate models are analyzed and compared with observations. The global climate models were forced by the same sea surface temperature (SST) fields in two types of experiments, using climatological SST and interannually varying SST. TC tracks and intensities are derived from each model's output fields by the group who ran that model, using their own preferred tracking scheme; the study considers the combination of model and tracking scheme as a single modeling system, and compares the properties derived from the different systems. Overall, the observed geographic distribution of global TC frequency was reasonably well reproduced. As expected, with the exception of one model, intensities of the simulated TC were lower than in observations, to a degree that varies considerably across models.

  4. Characteristics of Tropical Cyclones in High-Resolution Models of the Present Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaevitz, Daniel A.; Camargo, Suzana J.; Sobel, Adam H.; Jonas, Jeffery A.; Kim, Daeyhun; Kumar, Arun; LaRow, Timothy E.; Lim, Young-Kwon; Murakami, Hiroyuki; Roberts, Malcolm J.; hide

    2014-01-01

    The global characteristics of tropical cyclones (TCs) simulated by several climate models are analyzed and compared with observations. The global climate models were forced by the same sea surface temperature (SST) in two types of experiments, using a climatological SST and interannually varying SST. TC tracks and intensities are derived from each model's output fields by the group who ran that model, using their own preferred tracking scheme; the study considers the combination of model and tracking scheme as a single modeling system, and compares the properties derived from the different systems. Overall, the observed geographic distribution of global TC frequency was reasonably well reproduced. As expected, with the exception of one model, intensities of the simulated TC were lower than in observations, to a degree that varies considerably across models.

  5. Regionally Varying Assessments of Tropical Width in Reanalyses and CMIP5 Models Using a Tropopause Break Metric

    Science.gov (United States)

    Homeyer, C. R.; Martin, E. R.; McKinzie, R.; McCarthy, K.

    2017-12-01

    The boundary between the tropics and the extratropics in each hemisphere is not fixed in space or time. Variations in the north-south width of the tropics are directly connected to changes in weather and climate. These fluctuations have been shown to impact tropical biodiversity, the spread of vector borne diseases, atmospheric chemistry, and additional natural and human sectors. However, there is no unanimous definition of the tropical boundary. This has led to a disagreement on the magnitude of changes in the tropical width during the past 30 years and a lack of understanding concerning its spatial and temporal variability. This study identifies the variability of the tropical width in modern reanalyses (ERA-Interim, JRA-55, CFSR, MERRA, and MERRA-2) and CMIP5 models (all models with available 6-hourly output) using a novel analysis metric: the tropopause "break" (i.e., the sharp discontinuity in tropopause altitude between the tropics and extratropics). Similarities and differences are found amongst the reanalyses, with some degree of tropical narrowing in the Eastern Pacific between 1981 and 2010. Historical simulations from the CMIP5 models agree well with the tropopause break latitudes depicted by the reanalyses, with considerable differences in estimated trends over the relatively short overlapping time period of the datasets. For future projections under the RCP8.5 scenario from 2006 to 2100, CMIP5 models generally show statistically significant increases in tropical width (at the 99% level) throughout each hemisphere, with regional variability of 1-2 degrees in poleward latitude trends. The impact of CMIP5 model grid resolution and other factors on the results of the tropopause break analysis will be discussed.

  6. Simulation - modeling - experiment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2004-01-01

    After two workshops held in 2001 on the same topics, and in order to make a status of the advances in the domain of simulation and measurements, the main goals proposed for this workshop are: the presentation of the state-of-the-art of tools, methods and experiments in the domains of interest of the Gedepeon research group, the exchange of information about the possibilities of use of computer codes and facilities, about the understanding of physical and chemical phenomena, and about development and experiment needs. This document gathers 18 presentations (slides) among the 19 given at this workshop and dealing with: the deterministic and stochastic codes in reactor physics (Rimpault G.); MURE: an evolution code coupled with MCNP (Meplan O.); neutronic calculation of future reactors at EdF (Lecarpentier D.); advance status of the MCNP/TRIO-U neutronic/thermal-hydraulics coupling (Nuttin A.); the FLICA4/TRIPOLI4 thermal-hydraulics/neutronics coupling (Aniel S.); methods of disturbances and sensitivity analysis of nuclear data in reactor physics, application to VENUS-2 experimental reactor (Bidaud A.); modeling for the reliability improvement of an ADS accelerator (Biarotte J.L.); residual gas compensation of the space charge of intense beams (Ben Ismail A.); experimental determination and numerical modeling of phase equilibrium diagrams of interest in nuclear applications (Gachon J.C.); modeling of irradiation effects (Barbu A.); elastic limit and irradiation damage in Fe-Cr alloys: simulation and experiment (Pontikis V.); experimental measurements of spallation residues, comparison with Monte-Carlo simulation codes (Fallot M.); the spallation target-reactor coupling (Rimpault G.); tools and data (Grouiller J.P.); models in high energy transport codes: status and perspective (Leray S.); other ways of investigation for spallation (Audoin L.); neutrons and light particles production at intermediate energies (20-200 MeV) with iron, lead and uranium targets (Le Colley F

  7. Toward trait-based mortality models for tropical forests.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mélaine Aubry-Kientz

    Full Text Available Tree mortality in tropical forests is a complex ecological process for which modelling approaches need to be improved to better understand, and then predict, the evolution of tree mortality in response to global change. The mortality model introduced here computes an individual probability of dying for each tree in a community. The mortality model uses the ontogenetic stage of the tree because youngest and oldest trees are more likely to die. Functional traits are integrated as proxies of the ecological strategies of the trees to permit generalization among all species in the community. Data used to parametrize the model were collected at Paracou study site, a tropical rain forest in French Guiana, where 20,408 trees have been censused for 18 years. A Bayesian framework was used to select useful covariates and to estimate the model parameters. This framework was developed to deal with sources of uncertainty, including the complexity of the mortality process itself and the field data, especially historical data for which taxonomic determinations were uncertain. Uncertainty about the functional traits was also considered, to maximize the information they contain. Four functional traits were strong predictors of tree mortality: wood density, maximum height, laminar toughness and stem and branch orientation, which together distinguished the light-demanding, fast-growing trees from slow-growing trees with lower mortality rates. Our modelling approach formalizes a complex ecological problem and offers a relevant mathematical framework for tropical ecologists to process similar uncertain data at the community level.

  8. Toward trait-based mortality models for tropical forests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aubry-Kientz, Mélaine; Hérault, Bruno; Ayotte-Trépanier, Charles; Baraloto, Christopher; Rossi, Vivien

    2013-01-01

    Tree mortality in tropical forests is a complex ecological process for which modelling approaches need to be improved to better understand, and then predict, the evolution of tree mortality in response to global change. The mortality model introduced here computes an individual probability of dying for each tree in a community. The mortality model uses the ontogenetic stage of the tree because youngest and oldest trees are more likely to die. Functional traits are integrated as proxies of the ecological strategies of the trees to permit generalization among all species in the community. Data used to parametrize the model were collected at Paracou study site, a tropical rain forest in French Guiana, where 20,408 trees have been censused for 18 years. A Bayesian framework was used to select useful covariates and to estimate the model parameters. This framework was developed to deal with sources of uncertainty, including the complexity of the mortality process itself and the field data, especially historical data for which taxonomic determinations were uncertain. Uncertainty about the functional traits was also considered, to maximize the information they contain. Four functional traits were strong predictors of tree mortality: wood density, maximum height, laminar toughness and stem and branch orientation, which together distinguished the light-demanding, fast-growing trees from slow-growing trees with lower mortality rates. Our modelling approach formalizes a complex ecological problem and offers a relevant mathematical framework for tropical ecologists to process similar uncertain data at the community level.

  9. Decreasing trend of tropical cyclone frequency in 228-year high-resolution AGCM simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sugi, Masato; Yoshimura, Jun

    2012-10-01

    We conducted 228-year long, three-member ensemble simulations using a high resolution (60 km grid size) global atmosphere model, MRI-AGCM3.2, with prescribed sea surface temperature and greenhouse gases and aerosols from 1872 to 2099. We found a clear decreasing trend of global tropical cyclone (TC) frequency throughout the 228 years of the simulation. We also found a significant multidecadal variation (MDV) in the long term variation of Northern Hemisphere and Southern Hemisphere TC count in addition to the decreasing trend. The decreasing trend and MDV in the long term variation of TC count correspond well to a similar decreasing trend and MDV of upward mass flux averaged over the TC genesis region and active TC season. It has been shown that the upward mass flux decreases primarily because the rate of increase of dry static stability, which is close to that of surface specific humidity, is much larger than the rate of increase of precipitation, which is nearly the same as that of atmospheric radiative cooling. Thus, it is suggested that the decreasing trend of TC count is mainly caused by the decreasing trend of upward mass flux associated with the increasing dry static stability.

  10. Computer Based Modelling and Simulation

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    leaving students. It is a probabilistic model. In the next part of this article, two more models - 'input/output model' used for production systems or economic studies and a. 'discrete event simulation model' are introduced. Aircraft Performance Model.

  11. Tropical cyclones over the North Indian Ocean: experiments with the high-resolution global icosahedral grid point model GME

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumkar, Yogesh V.; Sen, P. N.; Chaudhari, Hemankumar S.; Oh, Jai-Ho

    2018-02-01

    In this paper, an attempt has been made to conduct a numerical experiment with the high-resolution global model GME to predict the tropical storms in the North Indian Ocean during the year 2007. Numerical integrations using the icosahedral hexagonal grid point global model GME were performed to study the evolution of tropical cyclones, viz., Akash, Gonu, Yemyin and Sidr over North Indian Ocean during 2007. It has been seen that the GME model forecast underestimates cyclone's intensity, but the model can capture the evolution of cyclone's intensity especially its weakening during landfall, which is primarily due to the cutoff of the water vapor supply in the boundary layer as cyclones approach the coastal region. A series of numerical simulation of tropical cyclones have been performed with GME to examine model capability in prediction of intensity and track of the cyclones. The model performance is evaluated by calculating the root mean square errors as cyclone track errors.

  12. Sensitivity of tropical cyclone Jal simulations to physics ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The track and intensity of simulated cyclone are compared with best track estimates provided by the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC) data. Two sets of experiments are conducted to determine the best combination of physics schemes for track and intensity and it is seen that the best set of physics combination for track ...

  13. Interactions Between the Thermohaline Circulation and Tropical Atlantic SST in a Coupled General Circulation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Ron; Jiang, Xing-Jian; Travis, Larry (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    Tropical Atlantic SST shows a (statistically well-defined) decadal time scale in a 104-year simulation of unforced variability by a coupled general circulation model (CGCM). The SST anomalies superficially resemble observed Tropical Atlantic variability (TAV), and are associated with changes in the atmospheric circulation. Brazilian rainfall is modulated with a decadal time scale, along with the strength of the Atlantic trade winds, which are associated with variations in evaporation and the net surface heat flux. However, in contrast to observed tropical Atlantic variability, the trade winds damp the associated anomalies in ocean temperature, indicating a negative feedback. Tropical SST anomalies in the CGCM, though opposed by the surface heat flux, are advected in from the Southern Hemisphere mid-latitudes. These variations modulate the strength of the thermohaline circulation (THC): warm, salty anomalies at the equator sink drawing cold, fresh mid-latitude water. Upon reaching the equator, the latter inhibit vertical overturning and advection from higher latitudes, which allows warm, salty anomalies to reform, returning the cycle to its original state. Thus, the cycle results from advection of density anomalies and the effect of these anomalies upon the rate of vertical overturning and surface advection. This decadal modulation of Tropical Atlantic SST and the thermohaline circulation is correlated with ocean heat transport to the Northern Hemisphere high latitudes and Norwegian Sea SST. Because of the central role of equatorial convection, we question whether this mechanism is present in the current climate, although we speculate that it may have operated in palaeo times, depending upon the stability of the tropical water column.

  14. Coupled model simulations of twentieth century climate of the Indian ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    models showed serious problems in simulating the northward seasonal migration of the Inter- tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) into the Indian ..... Environmental Studies and Frontier Research. Center for Global. Change .... vective momentum transport is the missing dyna- mical mechanism that causes the common failure.

  15. Modeling the physical and biogeochemical response of a marine shelf system to a tropical cyclone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Condie, S. A.; Herzfeld, M.; Margvelashvili, N.; Andrewartha, J. R.

    2009-11-01

    We describe the first use of a fully integrated biogeochemical model to explore the response of a marine shelf system to a tropical cyclone. Ocean currents, nutrients, sediments and plankton dynamics were simulated under conditions representative of Tropical Cyclone Bobby, which traversed the Australian North West Shelf in February 1995. Results show strong upwelling of nutrients and a phytoplankton bloom. While chlorophyll changes were similar to those estimated from satellite data in other coastal systems exposed to cyclonic conditions, the overall phytoplankton response was limited by cyclone induced sediment resuspension and the net contribution to annual primary production on the shelf was relatively small. In contrast, sediment loads exported off the shelf during Bobby were found to be more than 50 times modeled annual loads in years with little cyclone exposure and equivalent to at least 20 years of annual river-loads to the North West Shelf.

  16. Tropical Cyclones in the 7-km NASA Global Nature Run for Use in Observing System Simulation Experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reale, Oreste; Achuthavarier, Deepthi; Fuentes, Marangelly; Putman, William M.; Partyka, Gary

    2017-01-01

    The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Nature Run (NR), released for use in Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs), is a 2-year long global non-hydrostatic free-running simulation at a horizontal resolution of 7 km, forced by observed sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) and sea ice, and inclusive of interactive aerosols and trace gases. This article evaluates the NR with respect to tropical cyclone (TC) activity. It is emphasized that to serve as a NR, a long-term simulation must be able to produce realistic TCs, which arise out of realistic large-scale forcings. The presence in the NR of the realistic, relevant dynamical features over the African Monsoon region and the tropical Atlantic is confirmed, along with realistic African Easterly Wave activity. The NR Atlantic TC seasons, produced with 2005 and 2006 SSTs, show interannual variability consistent with observations, with much stronger activity in 2005. An investigation of TC activity over all the other basins (eastern and western North Pacific, North and South Indian Ocean, and Australian region), together with relevant elements of the atmospheric circulation, such as, for example, the Somali Jet and westerly bursts, reveals that the model captures the fundamental aspects of TC seasons in every basin, producing realistic number of TCs with realistic tracks, life spans and structures. This confirms that the NASA NR is a very suitable tool for OSSEs targeting TCs and represents an improvement with respect to previous long simulations that have served the global atmospheric OSSE community.

  17. Role of radiative-convective feedbacks in tropical cyclogenesis in rotating radiative-convective equilibrium simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wing, A. A.; Camargo, S. J.; Sobel, A. H.

    2015-12-01

    "Self-aggregation" is a mode of convective organization found in idealized numerical simulations, in which there is a spontaneous transition from randomly distributed to organized convection despite homogeneous boundary conditions. Self-aggregation has primarily been studied in a non-rotating framework, but it has been hypothesized to be important to tropical cyclogenesis. In numerical simulations of tropical cyclones, a broad vortex or saturated column is often used to initialize the circulation. Here, we instead allow a circulation to develop spontaneously from a homogeneous environment in 3-d cloud-resolving simulations of radiative-convective equilibrium in a rotating framework, with interactive radiation and surface fluxes and fixed sea surface temperature. The goals of this study are two-fold: to study tropical cyclogenesis in an unperturbed environment free from the influence of a prescribed initial vortex or external disturbances, and to compare cyclogenesis to non-rotating self-aggregation. We quantify the feedbacks leading to tropical cyclogenesis using a variance budget equation for the vertically integrated frozen moist static energy. In the initial development of a broad circulation, the feedback processes are similar to the initial phase of non-rotating aggregation. Sensitivity tests in which the degree of interactive radiation is modified are also performed to determine the extent to which the radiative feedbacks that are essential to non-rotating self-aggregation are important for tropical cyclogenesis. Finally, we examine the evolution of the rotational and divergent flow, to determine the point at which rotation becomes important and the cyclogenesis process begins to differ from non-rotating aggregation.

  18. A greenhouse crop production system for tropical lowland conditions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Impron, S.

    2011-01-01

    Key words: tropical lowland climate, tropical lowland greenhouse, plastic greenhouse, near infrared radiation (NIR) reflecting plastic, greenhouse climate model, determinate tomato, crop growth, development, truss appearance rate, crop simulation model, INTKAM.   The goal of this research

  19. Predicting Tropical Cyclogenesis with a Global Mesoscale Model: Hierarchical Multiscale Interactions During the Formation of Tropical Cyclone Nargis(2008)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, B.-W.; Tao, W.-K.; Lau, W. K.; Atlas, R.

    2010-01-01

    Very severe cyclonic storm Nargis devastated Burma (Myanmar) in May 2008, caused tremendous damage and numerous fatalities, and became one of the 10 deadliest tropical cyclones (TCs) of all time. To increase the warning time in order to save lives and reduce economic damage, it is important to extend the lead time in the prediction of TCs like Nargis. As recent advances in high-resolution global models and supercomputing technology have shown the potential for improving TC track and intensity forecasts, the ability of a global mesoscale model to predict TC genesis in the Indian Ocean is examined in this study with the aim of improving simulations of TC climate. High-resolution global simulations with real data show that the initial formation and intensity variations of TC Nargis can be realistically predicted up to 5 days in advance. Preliminary analysis suggests that improved representations of the following environmental conditions and their hierarchical multiscale interactions were the key to achieving this lead time: (1) a westerly wind burst and equatorial trough, (2) an enhanced monsoon circulation with a zero wind shear line, (3) good upper-level outflow with anti-cyclonic wind shear between 200 and 850 hPa, and (4) low-level moisture convergence.

  20. Impact of Moist Physics Complexity on Tropical Cyclone Simulations from the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalina, E. A.; Biswas, M.; Newman, K.; Grell, E. D.; Bernardet, L.; Frimel, J.; Carson, L.

    2017-12-01

    The parameterization of moist physics in numerical weather prediction models plays an important role in modulating tropical cyclone structure, intensity, and evolution. The Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast system (HWRF), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's operational model for tropical cyclone prediction, uses the Scale-Aware Simplified Arakawa-Schubert (SASAS) cumulus scheme and a modified version of the Ferrier-Aligo (FA) microphysics scheme to parameterize moist physics. The FA scheme contains a number of simplifications that allow it to run efficiently in an operational setting, which includes prescribing values for hydrometeor number concentrations (i.e., single-moment microphysics) and advecting the total condensate rather than the individual hydrometeor species. To investigate the impact of these simplifying assumptions on the HWRF forecast, the FA scheme was replaced with the more complex double-moment Thompson microphysics scheme, which individually advects cloud ice, cloud water, rain, snow, and graupel. Retrospective HWRF forecasts of tropical cyclones that occurred in the Atlantic and eastern Pacific ocean basins from 2015-2017 were then simulated and compared to those produced by the operational HWRF configuration. Both traditional model verification metrics (i.e., tropical cyclone track and intensity) and process-oriented metrics (e.g., storm size, precipitation structure, and heating rates from the microphysics scheme) will be presented and compared. The sensitivity of these results to the cumulus scheme used (i.e., the operational SASAS versus the Grell-Freitas scheme) also will be examined. Finally, the merits of replacing the moist physics schemes that are used operationally with the alternatives tested here will be discussed from a standpoint of forecast accuracy versus computational resources.

  1. Analysis and modeling of tropical convection observed by CYGNSS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lang, T. J.; Li, X.; Roberts, J. B.; Mecikalski, J. R.

    2017-12-01

    The Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) is a multi-satellite constellation that utilizes Global Positioning System (GPS) reflectometry to retrieve near-surface wind speeds over the ocean. While CYGNSS is primarily aimed at measuring wind speeds in tropical cyclones, our research has established that the mission may also provide valuable insight into the relationships between wind-driven surface fluxes and general tropical oceanic convection. Currently, we are examining organized tropical convection using a mixture of CYGNSS level 1 through level 3 data, IMERG (Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement), and other ancillary datasets (including buoys, GPM level 1 and 2 data, as well as ground-based radar). In addition, observing system experiments (OSEs) are being performed using hybrid three-dimensional variational assimilation to ingest CYGNSS observations into a limited-domain, convection-resolving model. Our focus for now is on case studies of convective evolution, but we will also report on progress toward statistical analysis of convection sampled by CYGNSS. Our working hypothesis is that the typical mature phase of organized tropical convection is marked by the development of a sharp gust-front boundary from an originally spatially broader but weaker wind speed change associated with precipitation. This increase in the wind gradient, which we demonstrate is observable by CYGNSS, likely helps to focus enhanced turbulent fluxes of convection-sustaining heat and moisture near the leading edge of the convective system where they are more easily ingested by the updraft. Progress on the testing and refinement of this hypothesis, using a mixture of observations and modeling, will be reported.

  2. Tropical radioecology tropical radioecology

    CERN Document Server

    Baxter, M

    2012-01-01

    Tropical Radioecology is a guide to the wide range of scientific practices and principles of this multidisciplinary field. It brings together past and present studies in the tropical and sub-tropical areas of the planet, highlighting the unique aspects of tropical systems. Until recently, radioecological models for tropical environments have depended upon data derived from temperate environments, despite the differences of these regions in terms of biota and abiotic conditions. Since radioactivity can be used to trace environmental processes in humans and other biota, this book offers examples of studies in which radiotracers have been used to assess biokinetics in tropical biota. Features chapters, co-authored by world experts, that explain the origins, inputs, distribution, behaviour, and consequences of radioactivity in tropical and subtropical systems. Provides comprehensive lists of relevant data and identifies current knowledge gaps to allow for targeted radioecological research in the future. Integrate...

  3. Seamless Modeling for Research & Predictability of Severe Tropical Storms from Weather-to-Climate Timescales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramaswamy, V.; Chen, J. H.; Delworth, T. L.; Knutson, T. R.; Lin, S. J.; Murakami, H.; Vecchi, G. A.

    2017-12-01

    Damages from catastrophic tropical storms such as the 2017 destructive hurricanes compel an acceleration of scientific advancements to understand the genesis, underlying mechanisms, frequency, track, intensity, and landfall of these storms. The advances are crucial to provide improved early information for planners and responders. We discuss the development and utilization of a global modeling capability based on a novel atmospheric dynamical core ("Finite-Volume Cubed Sphere or FV3") which captures the realism of the recent tropical storms and is a part of the NOAA Next-Generation Global Prediction System. This capability is also part of an emerging seamless modeling system at NOAA/ Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory for simulating the frequency of storms on seasonal and longer timescales with high fidelity e.g., Atlantic hurricane frequency over the past decades. In addition, the same modeling system has also been employed to evaluate the nature of projected storms on the multi-decadal scales under the influence of anthropogenic factors such as greenhouse gases and aerosols. The seamless modeling system thus facilitates research into and the predictability of severe tropical storms across diverse timescales of practical interest to several societal sectors.

  4. North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones: historical simulations and future changes with the new high-resolution Arpege AGCM.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pilon, R.; Chauvin, F.; Palany, P.; Belmadani, A.

    2017-12-01

    A new version of the variable high-resolution Meteo-France Arpege atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) has been developed for tropical cyclones (TC) studies, with a focus on the North Atlantic basin, where the model horizontal resolution is 15 km. Ensemble historical AMIP (Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project)-type simulations (1965-2014) and future projections (2020-2080) under the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario have been produced. TC-like vortices tracking algorithm is used to investigate TC activity and variability. TC frequency, genesis, geographical distribution and intensity are examined. Historical simulations are compared to best-track and reanalysis datasets. Model TC frequency is generally realistic but tends to be too high during the rst decade of the historical simulations. Biases appear to originate from both the tracking algorithm and model climatology. Nevertheless, the model is able to simulate extremely well intense TCs corresponding to category 5 hurricanes in the North Atlantic, where grid resolution is highest. Interaction between developing TCs and vertical wind shear is shown to be contributing factor for TC variability. Future changes in TC activity and properties are also discussed.

  5. Study of tropical cyclone "Fanoos" using MM5 model – a case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Ramalingeswara Rao

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Tropical cyclones are one of the most intense weather hazards over east coast of India and create a lot of devastation through gale winds and torrential floods while they cross the coast. So an attempt is made in this study to simulate track and intensity of tropical cyclone "Fanoos", which is formed over the Bay of Bengal during 5–10 December 2005 by using mesoscale model MM5. The simulated results are compared with the observed results of India Meteorological Department (IMD; results show that the cumulus parameterization scheme, Kain-Fritsch (KF is more accurately simulated both in track and intensity than the other Betts-Miller (BM and Grell Schemes. The reason for better performance of KF-1 scheme may be due to inclusion of updrafts and downdrafts. The model could predict the minimum Central Sea Level Pressure (CSLP as 983 hPa as compared to the IMD reports of 984 hPa and the wind speed is simulated at maximum 63 m/s compared to the IMD estimates of 65 m/s. Secondly "Fanoos" development from the lagrangian stand point in terms of vertical distribution of Potential Vorticity (PV is also carried out around cyclone centre.

  6. Sensitivity of tropical cyclone Jal simulations to physics ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    ducted in a fashion analogous to the one described above and the maximum wind (m/s) at 10 m height has been obtained from the model output. These ...... RRTM. Experiments with LWR schemes. 24. GD. MYJ/JAN. WSM3. PLEIM. DS. RRTMG. Table 12. Maximum sustainable wind error (m/s) in cumulus experiments.

  7. Convection links biomass burning to increased tropical ozone - However, models will tend to overpredict O3

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chatfield, Robert B.; Delany, Anthony C.

    1990-01-01

    Biomass burning throughout the inhabited portions of the tropics generates precursors which lead to significant local atmospheric ozone pollution. Several simulations show how this smog could be only an easily observed, local manifestation of a much broader increase in tropospheric ozone. The basic processes are illustrated with a one-dimensional time-dependent model that is closer to true meteorological motions than commonly used eddy diffusion models. Its application to a representative region of South America gives reasonable simulations of the local pollutants measured there. Three illustrative simulations indicate the importance of dilution, principally due to vertical transport, in increasing the efficiency of ozone production, possibly enough for high ozone to be apparent on a very large, intercontinental scale.

  8. Interactions between a tropical mixed boundary layer and cumulus convection in a radiative-convective model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dean, Caryn L. [Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, PA (United States)

    1993-05-01

    This report details a radiative-convective model, combining previously developed cumulus, stable cloud and radiation parameterizations with a boundary layer scheme, which was developed in the current study. The cloud model was modified to incorporate the effects of both small and large clouds. The boundary layer model was adapted from a mixed layer model was only slightly modified to couple it with the more sophisticated cloud model. The model was tested for a variety of imposed divergence profiles, which simulate the regions of the tropical ocean from approximately the intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) to the subtropical high region. The sounding used to initialize the model for most of the runs is from the trade wind region of ATEX. For each experiment, the model was run with a timestep of 300 seconds for a period of 7 days.

  9. Scale Interactions in the Tropics from a Simple Multi-Cloud Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niu, X.; Biello, J. A.

    2017-12-01

    Our lack of a complete understanding of the interaction between the moisture convection and equatorial waves remains an impediment in the numerical simulation of large-scale organization, such as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). The aim of this project is to understand interactions across spatial scales in the tropics from a simplified framework for scale interactions while a using a simplified framework to describe the basic features of moist convection. Using multiple asymptotic scales, Biello and Majda[1] derived a multi-scale model of moist tropical dynamics (IMMD[1]), which separates three regimes: the planetary scale climatology, the synoptic scale waves, and the planetary scale anomalies regime. The scales and strength of the observed MJO would categorize it in the regime of planetary scale anomalies - which themselves are forced from non-linear upscale fluxes from the synoptic scales waves. In order to close this model and determine whether it provides a self-consistent theory of the MJO. A model for diabatic heating due to moist convection must be implemented along with the IMMD. The multi-cloud parameterization is a model proposed by Khouider and Majda[2] to describe the three basic cloud types (congestus, deep and stratiform) that are most responsible for tropical diabatic heating. We implement a simplified version of the multi-cloud model that is based on results derived from large eddy simulations of convection [3]. We present this simplified multi-cloud model and show results of numerical experiments beginning with a variety of convective forcing states. Preliminary results on upscale fluxes, from synoptic scales to planetary scale anomalies, will be presented. [1] Biello J A, Majda A J. Intraseasonal multi-scale moist dynamics of the tropical atmosphere[J]. Communications in Mathematical Sciences, 2010, 8(2): 519-540. [2] Khouider B, Majda A J. A simple multicloud parameterization for convectively coupled tropical waves. Part I: Linear analysis

  10. Simulated birdwatchers' playback affects the behavior of two tropical birds.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J Berton C Harris

    Full Text Available Although recreational birdwatchers may benefit conservation by generating interest in birds, they may also have negative effects. One such potentially negative impact is the widespread use of recorded vocalizations, or "playback," to attract birds of interest, including range-restricted and threatened species. Although playback has been widely used to test hypotheses about the evolution of behavior, no peer-reviewed study has examined the impacts of playback in a birdwatching context on avian behavior. We studied the effects of simulated birdwatchers' playback on the vocal behavior of Plain-tailed Wrens Thryothorus euophrys and Rufous Antpittas Grallaria rufula in Ecuador. Study species' vocal behavior was monitored for an hour after playing either a single bout of five minutes of song or a control treatment of background noise. We also studied the effects of daily five minute playback on five groups of wrens over 20 days. In single bout experiments, antpittas made more vocalizations of all types, except for trills, after playback compared to controls. Wrens sang more duets after playback, but did not produce more contact calls. In repeated playback experiments, wren responses were strong at first, but hardly detectable by day 12. During the study, one study group built a nest, apparently unperturbed, near a playback site. The playback-induced habituation and changes in vocal behavior we observed suggest that scientists should consider birdwatching activity when selecting research sites so that results are not biased by birdwatchers' playback. Increased vocalizations after playback could be interpreted as a negative effect of playback if birds expend energy, become stressed, or divert time from other activities. In contrast, the habituation we documented suggests that frequent, regular birdwatchers' playback may have minor effects on wren behavior.

  11. Simulated birdwatchers' playback affects the behavior of two tropical birds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, J Berton C; Haskell, David G

    2013-01-01

    Although recreational birdwatchers may benefit conservation by generating interest in birds, they may also have negative effects. One such potentially negative impact is the widespread use of recorded vocalizations, or "playback," to attract birds of interest, including range-restricted and threatened species. Although playback has been widely used to test hypotheses about the evolution of behavior, no peer-reviewed study has examined the impacts of playback in a birdwatching context on avian behavior. We studied the effects of simulated birdwatchers' playback on the vocal behavior of Plain-tailed Wrens Thryothorus euophrys and Rufous Antpittas Grallaria rufula in Ecuador. Study species' vocal behavior was monitored for an hour after playing either a single bout of five minutes of song or a control treatment of background noise. We also studied the effects of daily five minute playback on five groups of wrens over 20 days. In single bout experiments, antpittas made more vocalizations of all types, except for trills, after playback compared to controls. Wrens sang more duets after playback, but did not produce more contact calls. In repeated playback experiments, wren responses were strong at first, but hardly detectable by day 12. During the study, one study group built a nest, apparently unperturbed, near a playback site. The playback-induced habituation and changes in vocal behavior we observed suggest that scientists should consider birdwatching activity when selecting research sites so that results are not biased by birdwatchers' playback. Increased vocalizations after playback could be interpreted as a negative effect of playback if birds expend energy, become stressed, or divert time from other activities. In contrast, the habituation we documented suggests that frequent, regular birdwatchers' playback may have minor effects on wren behavior.

  12. Simulated Birdwatchers’ Playback Affects the Behavior of Two Tropical Birds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, J. Berton C.; Haskell, David G.

    2013-01-01

    Although recreational birdwatchers may benefit conservation by generating interest in birds, they may also have negative effects. One such potentially negative impact is the widespread use of recorded vocalizations, or “playback,” to attract birds of interest, including range-restricted and threatened species. Although playback has been widely used to test hypotheses about the evolution of behavior, no peer-reviewed study has examined the impacts of playback in a birdwatching context on avian behavior. We studied the effects of simulated birdwatchers’ playback on the vocal behavior of Plain-tailed Wrens Thryothorus euophrys and Rufous Antpittas Grallaria rufula in Ecuador. Study species’ vocal behavior was monitored for an hour after playing either a single bout of five minutes of song or a control treatment of background noise. We also studied the effects of daily five minute playback on five groups of wrens over 20 days. In single bout experiments, antpittas made more vocalizations of all types, except for trills, after playback compared to controls. Wrens sang more duets after playback, but did not produce more contact calls. In repeated playback experiments, wren responses were strong at first, but hardly detectable by day 12. During the study, one study group built a nest, apparently unperturbed, near a playback site. The playback-induced habituation and changes in vocal behavior we observed suggest that scientists should consider birdwatching activity when selecting research sites so that results are not biased by birdwatchers’ playback. Increased vocalizations after playback could be interpreted as a negative effect of playback if birds expend energy, become stressed, or divert time from other activities. In contrast, the habituation we documented suggests that frequent, regular birdwatchers’ playback may have minor effects on wren behavior. PMID:24147094

  13. The Role of Temporal Evolution in Modeling Atmospheric Emissions from Tropical Fires

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marlier, Miriam E.; Voulgarakis, Apostolos; Shindell, Drew T.; Faluvegi, Gregory S.; Henry, Candise L.; Randerson, James T.

    2014-01-01

    Fire emissions associated with tropical land use change and maintenance influence atmospheric composition, air quality, and climate. In this study, we explore the effects of representing fire emissions at daily versus monthly resolution in a global composition-climate model. We find that simulations of aerosols are impacted more by the temporal resolution of fire emissions than trace gases such as carbon monoxide or ozone. Daily-resolved datasets concentrate emissions from fire events over shorter time periods and allow them to more realistically interact with model meteorology, reducing how often emissions are concurrently released with precipitation events and in turn increasing peak aerosol concentrations. The magnitude of this effect varies across tropical ecosystem types, ranging from smaller changes in modeling the low intensity, frequent burning typical of savanna ecosystems to larger differences when modeling the short-term, intense fires that characterize deforestation events. The utility of modeling fire emissions at a daily resolution also depends on the application, such as modeling exceedances of particulate matter concentrations over air quality guidelines or simulating regional atmospheric heating patterns.

  14. Relationships between convective asymmetry, imbalance and intensity in numerically simulated tropical cyclones

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David A. Schecter

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available This article examines the relationships between convective asymmetry (CA, imbalance and intensity in tropical cyclones (TCs that emerge from random winds on the periodic f-plane in a cloud-system-resolving numerical model. The model is configured with warm-rain microphysics and includes a basic parameterisation of long-wave radiation. Within the simulation set, the sea-surface temperature ranges from 26 to 32°C, and the Coriolis parameter f ranges from 10−5 to 10−4 s−1. The number of TCs that develop in a simulation increases rapidly with f and ranges from 1 to 18. Taken together, the simulations provide a diverse spectrum of vortices that can be used for a meaningful statistical study.Consistent with earlier studies, mature TCs with minimal asymmetry are found to have maximum wind speeds greater than the classic theoretical value derived by Emanuel under the assumptions of gradient-wind and hydrostatic balance. In a statistical sense, it is found that the degree of superintensity with respect to balance theory reliably decays with an increasing level of inner-core CA. It is verified that a more recent version of axisymmetric steady-state theory, revised to incorporate imbalance, provides a good approximation for the maximum (azimuthally averaged azimuthal wind speed V max when CA is relatively weak. More notably, this theory for axisymmetric vortices maintains less than 10% error as CA becomes comparable in magnitude to the symmetric component of inner-core convection. Above a large but finite threshold of CA, axisymmetric steady-state theory generally over-predicts V max. The underachievement of TCs in this parameter regime is shown to coincide with substantial violation of the theoretical assumption of slantwise convective neutrality in the main updraft of the basic state. Of further interest, a reliable curve-fit is obtained for the anticorrelation between a simple measure of CA and V max normalised to an estimate of its balanced

  15. Modelling and Simulation: An Overview

    OpenAIRE

    McAleer, Michael; Chan, Felix; Oxley, Les

    2013-01-01

    This discussion paper resulted in a publication in 'Selected Papers of the MSSANZ 19th Biennial Conference on Modelling and Simulation Mathematics and Computers in Simulation', 2013, pp. viii. The papers in this special issue of Mathematics and Computers in Simulation cover the following topics: improving judgmental adjustment of model-based forecasts, whether forecast updates are progressive, on a constrained mixture vector autoregressive model, whether all estimators are born equal: the emp...

  16. Notes on modeling and simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Redondo, Antonio [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2017-03-10

    These notes present a high-level overview of how modeling and simulation are carried out by practitioners. The discussion is of a general nature; no specific techniques are examined but the activities associated with all modeling and simulation approaches are briefly addressed. There is also a discussion of validation and verification and, at the end, a section on why modeling and simulation are useful.

  17. A ubiquitous ice size bias in simulations of tropical deep convection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. W. Stanford

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available The High Altitude Ice Crystals – High Ice Water Content (HAIC-HIWC joint field campaign produced aircraft retrievals of total condensed water content (TWC, hydrometeor particle size distributions (PSDs, and vertical velocity (w in high ice water content regions of mature and decaying tropical mesoscale convective systems (MCSs. The resulting dataset is used here to explore causes of the commonly documented high bias in radar reflectivity within cloud-resolving simulations of deep convection. This bias has been linked to overly strong simulated convective updrafts lofting excessive condensate mass but is also modulated by parameterizations of hydrometeor size distributions, single particle properties, species separation, and microphysical processes. Observations are compared with three Weather Research and Forecasting model simulations of an observed MCS using different microphysics parameterizations while controlling for w, TWC, and temperature. Two popular bulk microphysics schemes (Thompson and Morrison and one bin microphysics scheme (fast spectral bin microphysics are compared. For temperatures between −10 and −40 °C and TWC  >  1 g m−3, all microphysics schemes produce median mass diameters (MMDs that are generally larger than observed, and the precipitating ice species that controls this size bias varies by scheme, temperature, and w. Despite a much greater number of samples, all simulations fail to reproduce observed high-TWC conditions ( >  2 g m−3 between −20 and −40 °C in which only a small fraction of condensate mass is found in relatively large particle sizes greater than 1 mm in diameter. Although more mass is distributed to large particle sizes relative to those observed across all schemes when controlling for temperature, w, and TWC, differences with observations are significantly variable between the schemes tested. As a result, this bias is hypothesized to partly result from

  18. Various Numerical Applications on Tropical Convective Systems Using a Cloud Resolving Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shie, C.-L.; Tao, W.-K.; Simpson, J.

    2003-01-01

    In recent years, increasing attention has been given to cloud resolving models (CRMs or cloud ensemble models-CEMs) for their ability to simulate the radiative-convective system, which plays a significant role in determining the regional heat and moisture budgets in the Tropics. The growing popularity of CRM usage can be credited to its inclusion of crucial and physically relatively realistic features such as explicit cloud-scale dynamics, sophisticated microphysical processes, and explicit cloud-radiation interaction. On the other hand, impacts of the environmental conditions (for example, the large-scale wind fields, heat and moisture advections as well as sea surface temperature) on the convective system can also be plausibly investigated using the CRMs with imposed explicit forcing. In this paper, by basically using a Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model, three different studies on tropical convective systems are briefly presented. Each of these studies serves a different goal as well as uses a different approach. In the first study, which uses more of an idealized approach, the respective impacts of the large-scale horizontal wind shear and surface fluxes on the modeled tropical quasi-equilibrium states of temperature and water vapor are examined. In this 2-D study, the imposed large-scale horizontal wind shear is ideally either nudged (wind shear maintained strong) or mixed (wind shear weakened), while the minimum surface wind speed used for computing surface fluxes varies among various numerical experiments. For the second study, a handful of real tropical episodes (TRMM Kwajalein Experiment - KWAJEX, 1999; TRMM South China Sea Monsoon Experiment - SCSMEX, 1998) have been simulated such that several major atmospheric characteristics such as the rainfall amount and its associated stratiform contribution, the Qlheat and Q2/moisture budgets are investigated. In this study, the observed large-scale heat and moisture advections are continuously applied to the 2-D

  19. Impact of chlorophyll bias on the tropical Pacific mean climate in an earth system model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, Hyung-Gyu; Park, Jong-Yeon; Kug, Jong-Seong

    2017-12-01

    Climate modeling groups nowadays develop earth system models (ESMs) by incorporating biogeochemical processes in their climate models. The ESMs, however, often show substantial bias in simulated marine biogeochemistry which can potentially introduce an undesirable bias in physical ocean fields through biogeophysical interactions. This study examines how and how much the chlorophyll bias in a state-of-the-art ESM affects the mean and seasonal cycle of tropical Pacific sea-surface temperature (SST). The ESM used in the present study shows a sizeable positive bias in the simulated tropical chlorophyll. We found that the correction of the chlorophyll bias can reduce the ESM's intrinsic cold SST mean bias in the equatorial Pacific. The biologically-induced cold SST bias is strongly affected by seasonally-dependent air-sea coupling strength. In addition, the correction of chlorophyll bias can improve the annual cycle of SST by up to 25%. This result suggests a possible modeling approach in understanding the two-way interactions between physical and chlorophyll biases by biogeophysical effects.

  20. Earth System Modeling Tested for CLM4.5 in a Costa Rican Tropical Montane Rainforest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, J.; Miller, G. R.; Cahill, A. T.; Aparecido, L. M. T.; Moore, G. W.

    2017-12-01

    Terrestrial ecosystems in the tropics are important for global carbon and water cycling, which makes modeling of their land-surface processes essential for accurate understanding of land-atmosphere interactions. However, modeling of tropical regions, especially mountainous ones, is known to be subject to significant errors in the prediction of evapotranspiration. Our previous work has highlighted the effects of the prolonged wetness experienced by such sites, focusing on carbon and water exchange at the leaf/stand level. Here, we explore the implications these findings have for modeling at the stand/canopy scale. This study examined the performance of the Community Land Model (CLM4.5) against measurements from a tropical montane rainforest in Costa Rica. The study site receives over 4,000 mm of mean annual precipitation. Measurements include leaf temperatures, transpiration (sap flows), fluxes via eddy-covariance, and vertical profiles of H2O and CO2 concentrations, micrometeorological variables, and leaf wetness. In this work, results from point-scale CLM4.5 were compared to canopy data. The model fails to capture the effects of frequent rainfall events and mountainous topography on the variables of interest (temperatures, leaf wetness, and fluxes). We found that soil and leaf temperatures were overestimated (≈ +2°C) at noon and underestimated (≈ -1°C) during the night; daily transpiration was approximately double than that observed. Simulated leaf wetness deviated significantly from the measurements, both in timing and extent, which affected temperatures and evapotranspiration partitioning. Slope effects appeared in the average diurnal variations of surface albedo and carbon flux from actual data but were not captured in CLM. Our investigation indicated that interception and aerodynamic resistance models contribute to model errors, suggesting potential improvements for modeling in very wet and/or mountainous regions.

  1. Simulation Model of a Transient

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jauch, Clemens; Sørensen, Poul; Bak-Jensen, Birgitte

    2005-01-01

    This paper describes the simulation model of a controller that enables an active-stall wind turbine to ride through transient faults. The simulated wind turbine is connected to a simple model of a power system. Certain fault scenarios are specified and the turbine shall be able to sustain operati...

  2. Impact of global warming on tropical cyclone genesis in coupled and forced simulations: role of SST spatial anomalies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Royer, Jean-François; Chauvin, Fabrice; Daloz, Anne-Sophie

    2010-05-01

    The response of tropical cyclones (TC) activity to global warming has not yet reached a clear consensus in the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007) or in the recent scientific literature. Observed series are neither long nor reliable enough for a statistically significant detection and attribution of past TC trends, and coupled climate models give widely divergent results for the future evolution of TC activity in the different ocean basins. The potential importance of the spatial structure of the future SST warming has been pointed out by Chauvin et al. (2006) in simulations performed at CNRM with the ARPEGE-Climat GCM. The current presentation describes a new set of simulations that have been performed with the ARPEGE-Climat model to try to understand the possible role of SST patterns in the TC cyclogenesis response in 15 CMIP3 coupled simulations analysed by Royer et al (2009). The new simulations have been performed with the atmospheric component of the ARPEGE-Climat GCM forced in 10 year simulations by the SST patterns from each of 15 CMIP3 simulations with different climate model at the end of the 21st century according to scenario A2. The TC analysis is based on the computation of a Convective Yearly Genesis Parameter (CYGP) and the Genesis Potential Index (GPI). The computed genesis indices for each of the ARPEGE-Climat forced simulations is compared with the indices computed directly from the initial coupled simulation. The influence of SST patterns can then be more easily assessed since all the ARPEGE-Climat simulations are performed with the same atmospheric model, whereas the original simulations used models with different parameterization and resolutions. The analysis shows that CYGP or GPI anomalies obtained with ARPEGE are as variable between each other as those obtained originally by the different IPCC models. The variety of SST patterns used to force ARPEGE explains a large part of

  3. Cognitive models embedded in system simulation models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Siegel, A.I.; Wolf, J.J.

    1982-01-01

    If we are to discuss and consider cognitive models, we must first come to grips with two questions: (1) What is cognition; (2) What is a model. Presumably, the answers to these questions can provide a basis for defining a cognitive model. Accordingly, this paper first places these two questions into perspective. Then, cognitive models are set within the context of computer simulation models and a number of computer simulations of cognitive processes are described. Finally, pervasive issues are discussed vis-a-vis cognitive modeling in the computer simulation context

  4. Technical Note: Approximate Bayesian parameterization of a complex tropical forest model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartig, F.; Dislich, C.; Wiegand, T.; Huth, A.

    2013-08-01

    Inverse parameter estimation of process-based models is a long-standing problem in ecology and evolution. A key problem of inverse parameter estimation is to define a metric that quantifies how well model predictions fit to the data. Such a metric can be expressed by general cost or objective functions, but statistical inversion approaches are based on a particular metric, the probability of observing the data given the model, known as the likelihood. Deriving likelihoods for dynamic models requires making assumptions about the probability for observations to deviate from mean model predictions. For technical reasons, these assumptions are usually derived without explicit consideration of the processes in the simulation. Only in recent years have new methods become available that allow generating likelihoods directly from stochastic simulations. Previous applications of these approximate Bayesian methods have concentrated on relatively simple models. Here, we report on the application of a simulation-based likelihood approximation for FORMIND, a parameter-rich individual-based model of tropical forest dynamics. We show that approximate Bayesian inference, based on a parametric likelihood approximation placed in a conventional MCMC, performs well in retrieving known parameter values from virtual field data generated by the forest model. We analyze the results of the parameter estimation, examine the sensitivity towards the choice and aggregation of model outputs and observed data (summary statistics), and show results from using this method to fit the FORMIND model to field data from an Ecuadorian tropical forest. Finally, we discuss differences of this approach to Approximate Bayesian Computing (ABC), another commonly used method to generate simulation-based likelihood approximations. Our results demonstrate that simulation-based inference, which offers considerable conceptual advantages over more traditional methods for inverse parameter estimation, can

  5. Simulation - modeling - experiment; Simulation - modelisation - experience

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2004-07-01

    After two workshops held in 2001 on the same topics, and in order to make a status of the advances in the domain of simulation and measurements, the main goals proposed for this workshop are: the presentation of the state-of-the-art of tools, methods and experiments in the domains of interest of the Gedepeon research group, the exchange of information about the possibilities of use of computer codes and facilities, about the understanding of physical and chemical phenomena, and about development and experiment needs. This document gathers 18 presentations (slides) among the 19 given at this workshop and dealing with: the deterministic and stochastic codes in reactor physics (Rimpault G.); MURE: an evolution code coupled with MCNP (Meplan O.); neutronic calculation of future reactors at EdF (Lecarpentier D.); advance status of the MCNP/TRIO-U neutronic/thermal-hydraulics coupling (Nuttin A.); the FLICA4/TRIPOLI4 thermal-hydraulics/neutronics coupling (Aniel S.); methods of disturbances and sensitivity analysis of nuclear data in reactor physics, application to VENUS-2 experimental reactor (Bidaud A.); modeling for the reliability improvement of an ADS accelerator (Biarotte J.L.); residual gas compensation of the space charge of intense beams (Ben Ismail A.); experimental determination and numerical modeling of phase equilibrium diagrams of interest in nuclear applications (Gachon J.C.); modeling of irradiation effects (Barbu A.); elastic limit and irradiation damage in Fe-Cr alloys: simulation and experiment (Pontikis V.); experimental measurements of spallation residues, comparison with Monte-Carlo simulation codes (Fallot M.); the spallation target-reactor coupling (Rimpault G.); tools and data (Grouiller J.P.); models in high energy transport codes: status and perspective (Leray S.); other ways of investigation for spallation (Audoin L.); neutrons and light particles production at intermediate energies (20-200 MeV) with iron, lead and uranium targets (Le Colley F

  6. The ENSO Effects on Tropical Clouds and Top-of-Atmosphere Cloud Radiative Effects in CMIP5 Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Wenying; Wang, Hailan

    2015-01-01

    The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) effects on tropical clouds and top-of-atmosphere (TOA) cloud radiative effects (CREs) in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase5 (CMIP5) models are evaluated using satellite-based observations and International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project satellite simulator output. Climatologically, most CMIP5 models produce considerably less total cloud amount with higher cloud top and notably larger reflectivity than observations in tropical Indo-Pacific (60 degrees East - 200 degrees East; 10 degrees South - 10 degrees North). During ENSO, most CMIP5 models considerably underestimate TOA CRE and cloud changes over western tropical Pacific. Over central tropical Pacific, while the multi-model mean resembles observations in TOA CRE and cloud amount anomalies, it notably overestimates cloud top pressure (CTP) decreases; there are also substantial inter-model variations. The relative effects of changes in cloud properties, temperature and humidity on TOA CRE anomalies during ENSO in the CMIP5 models are assessed using cloud radiative kernels. The CMIP5 models agree with observations in that their TOA shortwave CRE anomalies are primarily contributed by total cloud amount changes, and their TOA longwave CRE anomalies are mostly contributed by changes in both total cloud amount and CTP. The model biases in TOA CRE anomalies particularly the strong underestimations over western tropical Pacific are, however, mainly explained by model biases in CTP and cloud optical thickness (tau) changes. Despite the distinct model cloud biases particularly in tau regime, the TOA CRE anomalies from cloud amount changes are comparable between the CMIP5 models and observations, because of the strong compensations between model underestimation of TOA CRE anomalies from thin clouds and overestimation from medium and thick clouds.

  7. Development of a tropical ecological forecasting strategy for ENSO based on the ACME modeling framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffman, F. M.; Xu, M.; Collier, N.; Xu, C.; Christoffersen, B. O.; Luo, Y.; Ricciuto, D. M.; Levine, P. A.; Randerson, J. T.

    2016-12-01

    The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an irregular periodic climate fluctuation, occurring every eight to 12 years, that is driven by variations in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean and extending westward across the equatorial Pacific. El Niño, the warming phase of ENSO, has strong effects on the global carbon cycle. Strong drying conditions in the Asia-Pacific region and western South America during El Niño lead to reduced ecosystem productivity and increased mortality and fire risk. The intensity of the 2015-2016 ENSO event rivaled or exceeded that of the 1997-1998 event, which was the strongest well-observed El Niño on record. We performed a set of simulations using the U.S. Department of Energy's Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy (ACMEv0.3) model, forced with prescribed sea surface temperatures, to study the responses and feedbacks of drought effects on terrestrial ecosystems induced by both of these events. The ACME model was configured to run with active atmosphere and land models alongside the "data" ocean and thermodynamic sea ice models. The Community Atmosphere Model used the Spectral Element dynamical core (CAM-SE) operating on the ne30 ( 1°) grid, and the ACME Land Model (ALM) was equivalent to the Community Land Model with prognostic biogeochemistry (CLM4.5-BGC). Using Optimal Interpolation SSTs (OISSTv2) and predicted SST anomalies from NCEP's Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) as forcing, we conducted a transient simulation from 1995 to 2020, following a spin up simulation, and analyzed the ENSO impacts on tropical terrestrial ecosystems for the 5-year periods centered on these two strong ENSO events. During the transient simulation, we saved the resulting atmospheric forcing, which included prognostic biosphere-atmosphere interactions, every three hours for use in future offline simulation for model development and testing. We will present simulation results, focusing on hydroclimatic anomalies as

  8. Environmental modeling, technology, and communication for land falling tropical cyclone/hurricane prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tuluri, Francis; Reddy, R Suseela; Anjaneyulu, Y; Colonias, John; Tchounwou, Paul

    2010-05-01

    Katrina (a tropical cyclone/hurricane) began to strengthen reaching a Category 5 storm on 28th August, 2005 and its winds reached peak intensity of 175 mph and pressure levels as low as 902 mb. Katrina eventually weakened to a category 3 storm and made a landfall in Plaquemines Parish, Louisiana, Gulf of Mexico, south of Buras on 29th August 2005. We investigate the time series intensity change of the hurricane Katrina using environmental modeling and technology tools to develop an early and advanced warning and prediction system. Environmental Mesoscale Model (Weather Research Forecast, WRF) simulations are used for prediction of intensity change and track of the hurricane Katrina. The model is run on a doubly nested domain centered over the central Gulf of Mexico, with grid spacing of 90 km and 30 km for 6 h periods, from August 28th to August 30th. The model results are in good agreement with the observations suggesting that the model is capable of simulating the surface features, intensity change and track and precipitation associated with hurricane Katrina. We computed the maximum vertical velocities (W(max)) using Convective Available Kinetic Energy (CAPE) obtained at the equilibrium level (EL), from atmospheric soundings over the Gulf Coast stations during the hurricane land falling for the period August 21-30, 2005. The large vertical atmospheric motions associated with the land falling hurricane Katrina produced severe weather including thunderstorms and tornadoes 2-3 days before landfall. The environmental modeling simulations in combination with sounding data show that the tools may be used as an advanced prediction and communication system (APCS) for land falling tropical cyclones/hurricanes.

  9. Environmental Modeling, Technology, and Communication for Land Falling Tropical Cyclone/Hurricane Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul Tchounwou

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Katrina (a tropical cyclone/hurricane began to strengthen reaching a Category 5 storm on 28th August, 2005 and its winds reached peak intensity of 175 mph and pressure levels as low as 902 mb. Katrina eventually weakened to a category 3 storm and made a landfall in Plaquemines Parish, Louisiana, Gulf of Mexico, south of Buras on 29th August 2005. We investigate the time series intensity change of the hurricane Katrina using environmental modeling and technology tools to develop an early and advanced warning and prediction system. Environmental Mesoscale Model (Weather Research Forecast, WRF simulations are used for prediction of intensity change and track of the hurricane Katrina. The model is run on a doubly nested domain centered over the central Gulf of Mexico, with grid spacing of 90 km and 30 km for 6 h periods, from August 28th to August 30th. The model results are in good agreement with the observations suggesting that the model is capable of simulating the surface features, intensity change and track and precipitation associated with hurricane Katrina. We computed the maximum vertical velocities (Wmax using Convective Available Kinetic Energy (CAPE obtained at the equilibrium level (EL, from atmospheric soundings over the Gulf Coast stations during the hurricane land falling for the period August 21–30, 2005. The large vertical atmospheric motions associated with the land falling hurricane Katrina produced severe weather including thunderstorms and tornadoes 2–3 days before landfall. The environmental modeling simulations in combination with sounding data show that the tools may be used as an advanced prediction and communication system (APCS for land falling tropical cyclones/hurricanes.

  10. Key Considerations in the Modeling of Tropical Maritime Microwave Attenuations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yee Hui Lee

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents some key considerations for modeling of over-sea radio-wave propagations in 5 GHz band. The summarized information is based on a series of measurement campaigns which were recently carried out in the tropical maritime environments near Singapore. Multiray propagations and ducting of radio waves have been highlighted and considered in over-sea path loss modeling and prediction. It is noted that the sea-surface reflection is an important contribution in the received field, while the duct layers could enhance the radio-wave propagations. Our studies also show that the refracted ray inside evaporation duct could be a strong ray for short-range near sea-surface applications and needs to be properly evaluated.

  11. Eco-hydrological modeling in a tropical area of Vietnam using SWAT model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rafiei Emam, Ammar; Kappas, Martin; Nguyen Hoang Khanh, Linh; Renchin, Tsolmon

    2016-04-01

    The tropical area of Vietnam is suffering from mismanagement of water and land resources which leads to rising floods, surface runoff and soil erosion. We used an eco-hydrological model based on SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) in Aluoi district as a representative case study of Central Vietnam. In addition to water balance calculation we simulated the flooding behavior on a single severe event (16th October 2007) by SWAT model. The model was calibrated based on multi-objective functions for stream flow and actual evapotranspiration (ETa). Nevertheless, observed stream flow was predicted by a regionalization approach and Eta-data were derived from MODIS time-series. The results of calibration and validation of model were pretty good with a high Nash-Sutcliff coefficient of 0.72 and 0.82 for river discharge and 0.77 and 0.79 for ETa, respectively. The monthly average of eight-year simulation (2006-2013) showed that the highest surface runoff occurred in October while the ratio of ETa /rainfall is the lowest, and the lowest surface runoff happened in February when the ratio of Eta /rainfall is the highest. The flooding behavior revealed that the peak flow was under predicted about 10 percent, roughly 1331 m3/s. However, the water depth was estimated approximately 7.5 m in the Main River. This water-level generated overflow of the river banks and led to inundation of land and endangered infrastructure and human life in downstream areas. Hence, best management practices (e.g. Terracing) are recommended to reduce surface runoff and flooding forces in Aluoi district of Vietnam.

  12. Technical Note: Approximate Bayesian parameterization of a process-based tropical forest model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartig, F.; Dislich, C.; Wiegand, T.; Huth, A.

    2014-02-01

    Inverse parameter estimation of process-based models is a long-standing problem in many scientific disciplines. A key question for inverse parameter estimation is how to define the metric that quantifies how well model predictions fit to the data. This metric can be expressed by general cost or objective functions, but statistical inversion methods require a particular metric, the probability of observing the data given the model parameters, known as the likelihood. For technical and computational reasons, likelihoods for process-based stochastic models are usually based on general assumptions about variability in the observed data, and not on the stochasticity generated by the model. Only in recent years have new methods become available that allow the generation of likelihoods directly from stochastic simulations. Previous applications of these approximate Bayesian methods have concentrated on relatively simple models. Here, we report on the application of a simulation-based likelihood approximation for FORMIND, a parameter-rich individual-based model of tropical forest dynamics. We show that approximate Bayesian inference, based on a parametric likelihood approximation placed in a conventional Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampler, performs well in retrieving known parameter values from virtual inventory data generated by the forest model. We analyze the results of the parameter estimation, examine its sensitivity to the choice and aggregation of model outputs and observed data (summary statistics), and demonstrate the application of this method by fitting the FORMIND model to field data from an Ecuadorian tropical forest. Finally, we discuss how this approach differs from approximate Bayesian computation (ABC), another method commonly used to generate simulation-based likelihood approximations. Our results demonstrate that simulation-based inference, which offers considerable conceptual advantages over more traditional methods for inverse parameter estimation

  13. Light in Tropical Forest Models: What Detail Matters?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shenkin, A.; Bentley, L. P.; Asner, G. P.; Malhi, Y.

    2014-12-01

    Representations of light in models of tropical forests are typically unconstrained by field data and rife with assumptions, and for good reason: forest light environments are highly variable, difficult and onerous to predict, and the value of improved prediction is unclear. Still, the question remains: how detailed must our models be to be accurate enough, yet simple enough to be able to scale them from plots to landscapes? Here we use field data to constrain 1-D, 2-D, and 3-D light models and integrate them with simple forest models to predict net primary production (NPP) across an Andes-to-Amazon elevation transect in Peru. Field data consist of novel vertical light profile measurements coupled with airborne LiDAR (light detection and ranging) data from the Carnegie Airborne Observatory. Preliminary results indicate that while 1-D models may be "good-enough" and highly-scalable where forest structure is relatively homogenous, more complex models become important as forest structure becomes more heterogeneous. We discuss the implications our results hold for prediction of NPP under a changing climate, and suggest paths forward for useful proxies of light availability in forests to improve and scale up forest models.

  14. High-Resolution Modeling to Assess Tropical Cyclone Activity in Future Climate Regimes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lackmann, Gary

    2013-06-10

    Applied research is proposed with the following objectives: (i) to determine the most likely level of tropical cyclone intensity and frequency in future climate regimes, (ii) to provide a quantitative measure of uncertainty in these predictions, and (iii) to improve understanding of the linkage between tropical cyclones and the planetary-scale circulation. Current mesoscale weather forecasting models, such as the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, are capable of simulating the full intensity of tropical cyclones (TC) with realistic structures. However, in order to accurately represent both the primary and secondary circulations in these systems, model simulations must be configured with sufficient resolution to explicitly represent convection (omitting the convective parameterization scheme). Most previous numerical studies of TC activity at seasonal and longer time scales have not utilized such explicit convection (EC) model runs. Here, we propose to employ the moving nest capability of WRF to optimally represent TC activity on a seasonal scale using a downscaling approach. The statistical results of a suite of these high-resolution TC simulations will yield a realistic representation of TC intensity on a seasonal basis, while at the same time allowing analysis of the feedback that TCs exert on the larger-scale climate system. Experiments will be driven with analyzed lateral boundary conditions for several recent Atlantic seasons, spanning a range of activity levels and TC track patterns. Results of the ensemble of WRF simulations will then be compared to analyzed TC data in order to determine the extent to which this modeling setup can reproduce recent levels of TC activity. Next, the boundary conditions (sea-surface temperature, tropopause height, and thermal/moisture profiles) from the recent seasons will be altered in a manner consistent with various future GCM/RCM scenarios, but that preserves the large-scale shear and incipient disturbance

  15. Solar response in tropical stratospheric ozone: a 3-D chemical transport model study using ERA reanalyses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Dhomse

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available We have used an off-line 3-D chemical transport model (CTM to investigate the 11-yr solar cycle response in tropical stratospheric ozone. The model is forced with European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF (reanalysis (ERA-40/operational and ERA-Interim data for the 1979–2005 time period. We have compared the modelled solar response in ozone to observation-based data sets that are constructed using satellite instruments such as Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS, Solar Backscatter UltraViolet instrument (SBUV, Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE and Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE. A significant difference is seen between simulated and observed ozone during the 1980s, which is probably due to inhomogeneities in the ERA-40 reanalyses. In general, the model with ERA-Interim dynamics shows better agreement with the observations from 1990 onwards than with ERA-40. Overall both standard model simulations are partially able to simulate a "double peak"-structured ozone solar response with a minimum around 30 km, and these are in better agreement with HALOE than SAGE-corrected SBUV (SBUV/SAGE or SAGE-based data sets. In the tropical lower stratosphere (TLS, the modelled solar response with time-varying aerosols is amplified through aliasing with a volcanic signal, as the model overestimates ozone loss during high aerosol loading years. However, the modelled solar response with fixed dynamics and constant aerosols shows a positive signal which is in better agreement with SBUV/SAGE and SAGE-based data sets in the TLS. Our model simulations suggests that photochemistry contributes to the ozone solar response in this region. The largest model-observation differences occur in the upper stratosphere where SBUV/SAGE and SAGE-based data show a significant (up to 4% solar response whereas the standard model and HALOE do not. This is partly due to a positive solar response in the ECMWF upper stratospheric temperatures which

  16. Representation of tropical deep convection in atmospheric models – Part 1: Meteorology and comparison with satellite observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. R. Russo

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Fast convective transport in the tropics can efficiently redistribute water vapour and pollutants up to the upper troposphere. In this study we compare tropical convection characteristics for the year 2005 in a range of atmospheric models, including numerical weather prediction (NWP models, chemistry transport models (CTMs, and chemistry-climate models (CCMs. The model runs have been performed within the framework of the SCOUT-O3 (Stratospheric-Climate Links with Emphasis on the Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere project. The characteristics of tropical convection, such as seasonal cycle, land/sea contrast and vertical extent, are analysed using satellite observations as a benchmark for model simulations. The observational datasets used in this work comprise precipitation rates, outgoing longwave radiation, cloud-top pressure, and water vapour from a number of independent sources, including ERA-Interim analyses. Most models are generally able to reproduce the seasonal cycle and strength of precipitation for continental regions but show larger discrepancies with observations for the Maritime Continent region. The frequency distribution of high clouds from models and observations is calculated using highly temporally-resolved (up to 3-hourly cloud top data. The percentage of clouds above 15 km varies significantly between the models. Vertical profiles of water vapour in the upper troposphere-lower stratosphere (UTLS show large differences between the models which can only be partly attributed to temperature differences. If a convective plume reaches above the level of zero net radiative heating, which is estimated to be ~15 km in the tropics, the air detrained from it can be transported upwards by radiative heating into the lower stratosphere. In this context, we discuss the role of tropical convection as a precursor for the transport of short-lived species into the lower stratosphere.

  17. TREAT Modeling and Simulation Strategy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    DeHart, Mark David [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2015-09-01

    This report summarizes a four-phase process used to describe the strategy in developing modeling and simulation software for the Transient Reactor Test Facility. The four phases of this research and development task are identified as (1) full core transient calculations with feedback, (2) experiment modeling, (3) full core plus experiment simulation and (4) quality assurance. The document describes the four phases, the relationship between these research phases, and anticipated needs within each phase.

  18. FASTBUS simulation models in VHDL

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Appelquist, G.

    1992-11-01

    Four hardware simulation models implementing the FASTBUS protocol are described. The models are written in the VHDL hardware description language to obtain portability, i.e. without relations to any specific simulator. They include two complete FASTBUS devices, a full-duplex segment interconnect and ancillary logic for the segment. In addition, master and slave models using a high level interface to describe FASTBUS operations, are presented. With these models different configurations of FASTBUS systems can be evaluated and the FASTBUS transactions of new devices can be verified. (au)

  19. High Resolution Global Climate Modeling with GEOS-5: Intense Precipitation, Convection and Tropical Cyclones on Seasonal Time-Scales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Putnam, WilliamM.

    2011-01-01

    In 2008 the World Modeling Summit for Climate Prediction concluded that "climate modeling will need-and is ready-to move to fundamentally new high-resolution approaches to capitalize on the seamlessness of the weather-climate continuum." Following from this, experimentation with very high-resolution global climate modeling has gained enhanced priority within many modeling groups and agencies. The NASA Goddard Earth Observing System model (GEOS-5) has been enhanced to provide a capability for the execution at the finest horizontal resolutions POS,SIOle with a global climate model today. Using this high-resolution, non-hydrostatic version of GEOS-5, we have developed a unique capability to explore the intersection of weather and climate within a seamless prediction system. Week-long weather experiments, to mUltiyear climate simulations at global resolutions ranging from 3.5- to 14-km have demonstrated the predictability of extreme events including severe storms along frontal systems, extra-tropical storms, and tropical cyclones. The primary benefits of high resolution global models will likely be in the tropics, with better predictions of the genesis stages of tropical cyclones and of the internal structure of their mature stages. Using satellite data we assess the accuracy of GEOS-5 in representing extreme weather phenomena, and their interaction within the global climate on seasonal time-scales. The impacts of convective parameterization and the frequency of coupling between the moist physics and dynamics are explored in terms of precipitation intensity and the representation of deep convection. We will also describe the seasonal variability of global tropical cyclone activity within a global climate model capable of representing the most intense category 5 hurricanes.

  20. Understanding and Modeling Tropical Grasslands Using Remotely Sensed Fluorescence and Soil Moisture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, D.; Denning, S.; Baker, I. T.; Haynes, K. D.

    2016-12-01

    Seasonal grasslands account for a large area of Earth's land cover. Annual and seasonal changes in these grasslands have profound impacts on Earth's carbon, energy, and water cycles. In tropical grasslands, growth is commonly water-limited and the landscape oscillates between highly productive and unproductive. As the monsoon begins, soils moisten providing dry grasses the water necessary to photosynthesize. However, along with seasonal rains come clouds that obscure satellite products (MODIS fPAR/LAI) that are commonly used to quantify phenology and productivity in these areas. To mitigate this issue, we used solar induced fluorescence (SIF) products from GOSAT, GOME-2, and OCO-2 along with soil moisture products from SMAP which see through the clouds to monitor grassland productivity. To get a broader understanding of the vegetation dynamics, we used the Simple Biosphere Model (SiB) to simulate the seasonal cycles of vegetation. In conjunction with SiB, the remotely sensed SIF and soil moisture observations were utilized to paint a clearer picture of seasonal productivity in tropical grasslands. We focused on the growing season onset and senescence of vegetation in both SiB and remotely sensed observations. We investigated the threshold relationships between observed soil moisture and SIF during these "green-up" and "brown-down" periods. SIF and SMAP provide an unprecedented number of observations of these transitions and revealed substantial model biases in the treatment of grassland phenology. Comparing the observed thresholds to model phenology allowed us to improve SiB to more accurately represent the carbon cycle in tropical grasslands across the world.

  1. Evaluation of a non-point source pollution model, AnnAGNPS, in a tropical watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Polyakov, V.; Fares, A.; Kubo, D.; Jacobi, J.; Smith, C.

    2007-01-01

    Impaired water quality caused by human activity and the spread of invasive plant and animal species has been identified as a major factor of degradation of coastal ecosystems in the tropics. The main goal of this study was to evaluate the performance of AnnAGNPS (Annualized Non-Point Source Pollution Model), in simulating runoff and soil erosion in a 48 km2 watershed located on the Island of Kauai, Hawaii. The model was calibrated and validated using 2 years of observed stream flow and sediment load data. Alternative scenarios of spatial rainfall distribution and canopy interception were evaluated. Monthly runoff volumes predicted by AnnAGNPS compared well with the measured data (R2 = 0.90, P < 0.05); however, up to 60% difference between the actual and simulated runoff were observed during the driest months (May and July). Prediction of daily runoff was less accurate (R2 = 0.55, P < 0.05). Predicted and observed sediment yield on a daily basis was poorly correlated (R2 = 0.5, P < 0.05). For the events of small magnitude, the model generally overestimated sediment yield, while the opposite was true for larger events. Total monthly sediment yield varied within 50% of the observed values, except for May 2004. Among the input parameters the model was most sensitive to the values of ground residue cover and canopy cover. It was found that approximately one third of the watershed area had low sediment yield (0-1 t ha-1 y-1), and presented limited erosion threat. However, 5% of the area had sediment yields in excess of 5 t ha-1 y-1. Overall, the model performed reasonably well, and it can be used as a management tool on tropical watersheds to estimate and compare sediment loads, and identify "hot spots" on the landscape. ?? 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Analysis of the environments of seven Mediterranean tropical-like storms using an axisymmetric, nonhydrostatic, cloud resolving model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Fita

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Tropical-like storms on the Mediterranean Sea are occasionally observed on satellite images, often with a clear eye surrounded by an axysimmetric cloud structure. These storms sometimes attain hurricane intensity and can severely affect coastal lands. A deep, cut-off, cold-core low is usually observed at mid-upper tropospheric levels in association with the development of these tropical-like systems. In this study we attempt to apply some tools previously used in studies of tropical hurricanes to characterise the environments in which seven known Mediterranean events developed. In particular, an axisymmetric, nonhydrostatic, cloud resolving model is applied to simulate the tropical-like storm genesis and evolution. Results are compared to surface observations when landfall occurred and with satellite microwave derived wind speed measurements over the sea. Finally, sensitivities of the numerical simulations to different factors (e.g. sea surface temperature, vertical humidity profile and size of the initial precursor of the storm are examined.

  3. Computer Based Modelling and Simulation

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Most systems involve parameters and variables, which are random variables due to uncertainties. Probabilistic meth- ods are powerful in modelling such systems. In this second part, we describe probabilistic models and Monte Carlo simulation along with 'classical' matrix methods and differ- ential equations as most real ...

  4. Sensitivity Analysis of Simulation Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kleijnen, J.P.C.

    2009-01-01

    This contribution presents an overview of sensitivity analysis of simulation models, including the estimation of gradients. It covers classic designs and their corresponding (meta)models; namely, resolution-III designs including fractional-factorial two-level designs for first-order polynomial

  5. Modelling and Simulation: An Overview

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.J. McAleer (Michael); F. Chan (Felix); L. Oxley (Les)

    2013-01-01

    textabstractThe papers in this special issue of Mathematics and Computers in Simulation cover the following topics: improving judgmental adjustment of model-based forecasts, whether forecast updates are progressive, on a constrained mixture vector autoregressive model, whether all estimators are

  6. Geophysical and botanical monitoring of simulated graves in a tropical rainforest, Colombia, South America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molina, Carlos Martin; Pringle, Jamie K.; Saumett, Miguel; Evans, Gethin T.

    2016-12-01

    In most Latin American countries there are significant numbers of missing people and forced disappearances, currently 80,000 only in Colombia. Successful detection of shallow buried human remains by forensic search teams is currently difficult in varying terrain and climates. Within this research we built four simulated clandestine burial styles in tropical rainforests, as this is a common scenario and depositional environment encountered in Latin America, to gain knowledge of optimum forensic geophysics detection techniques. The results of geophysically monitoring these burials using ground penetrating radar, magnetic susceptibility, bulk ground conductivity and electrical resistivity are presented from one to forty three weeks post-burial. Radar survey results with both the 250 MHz and 500 MHz frequency antennae showed good detection of modern simulated burials on 2D profiles and horizontal time slices but poor detection on the other simulated graves. Magnetic susceptibility, bulk ground conductivity and electrical resistivity results were generally poor at detecting the simulated targets. Observations of botanical variations on the test site show rapid regrowth of Malvaceae and Petiveria alliacea vegetation over all burials that are common in these forests, which can make detection more difficult.

  7. Modelling coastal vulnerability : Design and evaluation of a vulnerability model for tropical storms and floods

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marchand, M.

    2009-01-01

    This resarch thesis focuses on vulnerability of societies in low lying coastal and deltaic environments to tropical cyclonic storms and floods. Models that explore vulnerability under various planned and unplanned conditions hardly exist. Within the Andhra Pradesh Cyclone Hazard Mitigation Project

  8. CFD modeling of airflow for indoor comfort in the tropics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aynsley, R.; Su, B.

    2006-01-01

    In humid tropical environments air movement is a common means to achieving indoor thermal comfort. In many locations closer to the equator, breezes are weaker and less reliable. Whatever the source of air movement it is important to quantity its potential in terms of the percentage of time the air movement will be available and the likely speed of the air movement in occupied zone of a building. It is also important to establish appropriate thermal comfort criteria with respect to air temperature, humidity and air movement. There are a number of techniques for modeling air movement inside naturally ventilated buildings. Boundary layer wind tunnels provide an opportunity to both measure and visually observe such airflow through model building. It is important to model adjacent buildings and any significant landscaping features that will influence outdoor airflow patterns. Such studies are relatively expensive. The recent availability of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) software for personal computers offers an alternative method for modeling air movement inside naturally ventilated buildings. Very expensive versions of this software have been available for large computers and work stations for many years but they have only recently become available for smaller computers. There are some features of such software that should be compared before purchasing a copy or a license. This paper discusses such features in detail. It is important in the case of natural ventilation that adjacent buildings and any significant landscaping features that will influence outdoor airflow patterns are included in the modeling. This paper also stresses the importance of calibrating the CFD software output against some physical measurements or wind tunnel modeling to ensure that the CFD results are realistic

  9. Simulation of Meteosat Third Generation-Lightning Imager through tropical rainfall measuring mission: Lightning Imaging Sensor data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biron, Daniele; De Leonibus, Luigi; Laquale, Paolo; Labate, Demetrio; Zauli, Francesco; Melfi, Davide

    2008-08-01

    The Centro Nazionale di Meteorologia e Climatologia Aeronautica recently hosted a fellowship sponsored by Galileo Avionica, with the intent to study and perform a simulation of Meteosat Third Generation - Lightning Imager (MTG-LI) sensor behavior through Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission - Lightning Imaging Sensor data (TRMM-LIS). For the next generation of earth observation geostationary satellite, major operating agencies are planning to insert an optical imaging mission, that continuously observes lightning pulses in the atmosphere; EUMETSAT has decided in recent years that one of the three candidate mission to be flown on MTG is LI, a Lightning Imager. MTG-LI mission has no Meteosat Second Generation heritage, but users need to evaluate the possible real time data output of the instrument to agree in inserting it on MTG payload. Authors took the expected LI design from MTG Mission Requirement Document, and reprocess real lightning dataset, acquired from space by TRMM-LIS instrument, to produce a simulated MTG-LI lightning dataset. The simulation is performed in several run, varying Minimum Detectable Energy, taking into account processing steps from event detection to final lightning information. A definition of the specific meteorological requirements is given from the potential use in meteorology of lightning final information for convection estimation and numerical cloud modeling. Study results show the range of instrument requirements relaxation which lead to minimal reduction in the final lightning information.

  10. Comparison of observed and simulated spatial patterns of ice microphysical processes in tropical oceanic mesoscale convective systems: Ice Microphysics in Midlevel Inflow

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barnes, Hannah C. [Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle Washington USA; Houze, Robert A. [Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle Washington USA; Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA

    2016-07-25

    To equitably compare the spatial pattern of ice microphysical processes produced by three microphysical parameterizations with each other, observations, and theory, simulations of tropical oceanic mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model were forced to develop the same mesoscale circulations as observations by assimilating radial velocity data from a Doppler radar. The same general layering of microphysical processes was found in observations and simulations with deposition anywhere above the 0°C level, aggregation at and above the 0°C level, melting at and below the 0°C level, and riming near the 0°C level. Thus, this study is consistent with the layered ice microphysical pattern portrayed in previous conceptual models and indicated by dual-polarization radar data. Spatial variability of riming in the simulations suggests that riming in the midlevel inflow is related to convective-scale vertical velocity perturbations. Finally, this study sheds light on limitations of current generally available bulk microphysical parameterizations. In each parameterization, the layers in which aggregation and riming took place were generally too thick and the frequency of riming was generally too high compared to the observations and theory. Additionally, none of the parameterizations produced similar details in every microphysical spatial pattern. Discrepancies in the patterns of microphysical processes between parameterizations likely factor into creating substantial differences in model reflectivity patterns. It is concluded that improved parameterizations of ice-phase microphysics will be essential to obtain reliable, consistent model simulations of tropical oceanic MCSs.

  11. Vehicle dynamics modeling and simulation

    CERN Document Server

    Schramm, Dieter; Bardini, Roberto

    2014-01-01

    The authors examine in detail the fundamentals and mathematical descriptions of the dynamics of automobiles. In this context different levels of complexity will be presented, starting with basic single-track models up to complex three-dimensional multi-body models. A particular focus is on the process of establishing mathematical models on the basis of real cars and the validation of simulation results. The methods presented are explained in detail by means of selected application scenarios.

  12. Modeling and Simulation: An Overview

    OpenAIRE

    Michael McAleer; Felix Chan; Les Oxley

    2013-01-01

    The papers in this special issue of Mathematics and Computers in Simulation cover the following topics. Improving judgmental adjustment of model-based forecasts, whether forecast updates are progressive, on a constrained mixture vector autoregressive model, whether all estimators are born equal. The empirical properties of some estimators of long memory, characterising trader manipulation in a limitorder driven market, measuring bias in a term-structure model of commodity prices through the c...

  13. Spectral signatures of the tropical Pacific dynamics from model and altimetry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lionel, Tchilibou Michel; Gourdeau, Lionel; Morrow, Rosemary; Djath, Bugshin; Jouanno, Julien; Marin, Frederic

    2017-04-01

    The tropics are distinguishable from mid latitudes by their small Coriolis parameter vanishing at the equator, large Rossby radius, and strong anisotropic circulation. These peculiarities are at the origin of dynamics that strongly respond to the wind forcing through zonally propagating tropical waves, and of a large range of wavenumbers covering meso and submesoscale interactions. The main tropical meso and submesoscales features are associated with Tropical Instability Waves (Marchesiello et al., 2011), but coherent vorticity structures span the tropical band as described by Ubelmann and Fu (2011). This study aims to infer the dynamics of the tropical Pacific through spectral EKE and SSH analyses by looking at their latitudinal dependence. Also, a question of interest is the observability of such dynamics using along track altimetric wavenumber spectra since the tracks are mainly oriented meridionally in the tropics. This study is based on the 1.12° resolution DRAKKAR global model. Frequency-zonal wavenumber EKE spectra, and their corresponding 1D frequency and zonal wavenumber are analyzed in different latitudinal bands in the tropics illustrating the contrast between the dynamics in the equatorial belt and in the off -equatorial belt. Zonal and meridional wavenumber EKE spectra, and 2D (horizontal wavenumber) spectra of zonal and meridional velocities are used to illustrate the degree of anisotropy in the tropics depending on latitude. These EKE spectra and the relationship between EKE and SSH spectra helps us to discuss the validity of QG turbulence theories in the tropics. These model results combined with those from a 1/36° resolution regional model with explicit tides point out the actual limitation of along track altimetric SSH to infer small scale dynamics in the tropics due the high energy level of high frequency ageostrophic motions.

  14. Effects of assimilating precipitation zones derived from satellite and lightning data on numerical simulations of tropical-like Mediterranean storms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Fita

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available The scarcity of meteorological observations in maritime areas is a well-known problem that can be an important limitation in the study of different phenomena. Tropical-like storms or medicanes developed over the Mediterranean sea are intense storms with some similarities to the tropical ones. Although they do not reach the hurricane intensity, their potential for damage is very high, due to the densely populated Mediterranean coastal regions. In this study, the two notable cases of medicane development which occurred in the western Mediterranean basin in September 1996 and October 2003, are considered. The capability of mesoscale numerical models to simulate general aspects of such a phenomena has been previously shown. With the aim of improving the numerical results, an adjustment of the humidity vertical profiles in MM5 simulations is performed by means of satellite derived precipitation. Convective and stratiform precipitation types obtained from satellite images are used to individually adjust the profiles. Lightning hits are employed to identify convective grid points. The adjustment of the vertical humidity profiles is carried out in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF analyses used as initial conditions for the simulations. Analyses nudging to ECMWF analyses and to the satellite-based humidity-corrected version of these analyses has also been applied using Four Dimensional Data Assimilation (FDDA. An additional adjustment is applied as observation nudging of satellite/lightning information at different time and spatial resolutions. Statistical parameters are proposed and tested as an objective way to intercompare satellite-derived and simulated trajectories. Simulations of medicanes exhibit a strong sensitivity to vertical humidity profiles. Trajectories of the storms are improved or worsened by using FDDA. A case dependence is obtained on the characteristics of the humidity-corrected medicanes. FDDA sensitivity

  15. Effects of assimilating precipitation zones derived from satellite and lightning data on numerical simulations of tropical-like Mediterranean storms

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fita, L.; Romero, R.; Luque, A.; Ramis, C. [Univ. de les Illes Balears, Palma de Mallorca (Spain). Grup de Meteorologia

    2009-07-01

    The scarcity of meteorological observations in maritime areas is a well-known problem that can be an important limitation in the study of different phenomena. Tropical-like storms or medicanes developed over the Mediterranean sea are intense storms with some similarities to the tropical ones. Although they do not reach the hurricane intensity, their potential for damage is very high, due to the densely populated Mediterranean coastal regions. In this study, the two notable cases of medicane development which occurred in the western Mediterranean basin in September 1996 and October 2003, are considered. The capability of mesoscale numerical models to simulate general aspects of such a phenomena has been previously shown. With the aim of improving the numerical results, an adjustment of the humidity vertical profiles in MM5 simulations is performed by means of satellite derived precipitation. Convective and stratiform precipitation types obtained from satellite images are used to individually adjust the profiles. Lightning hits are employed to identify convective grid points. The adjustment of the vertical humidity profiles is carried out in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analyses used as initial conditions for the simulations. Analyses nudging to ECMWF analyses and to the satellite-based humidity-corrected version of these analyses has also been applied using Four Dimensional Data Assimilation (FDDA). An additional adjustment is applied as observation nudging of satellite/lightning information at different time and spatial resolutions. Statistical parameters are proposed and tested as an objective way to intercompare satellite-derived and simulated trajectories. Simulations of medicanes exhibit a strong sensitivity to vertical humidity profiles. Trajectories of the storms are improved or worsened by using FDDA. A case dependence is obtained on the characteristics of the humidity-corrected medicanes. FDDA sensitivity on temporal and

  16. Stochastic models: theory and simulation.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Field, Richard V., Jr.

    2008-03-01

    Many problems in applied science and engineering involve physical phenomena that behave randomly in time and/or space. Examples are diverse and include turbulent flow over an aircraft wing, Earth climatology, material microstructure, and the financial markets. Mathematical models for these random phenomena are referred to as stochastic processes and/or random fields, and Monte Carlo simulation is the only general-purpose tool for solving problems of this type. The use of Monte Carlo simulation requires methods and algorithms to generate samples of the appropriate stochastic model; these samples then become inputs and/or boundary conditions to established deterministic simulation codes. While numerous algorithms and tools currently exist to generate samples of simple random variables and vectors, no cohesive simulation tool yet exists for generating samples of stochastic processes and/or random fields. There are two objectives of this report. First, we provide some theoretical background on stochastic processes and random fields that can be used to model phenomena that are random in space and/or time. Second, we provide simple algorithms that can be used to generate independent samples of general stochastic models. The theory and simulation of random variables and vectors is also reviewed for completeness.

  17. The NOW regional coupled model: Application to the tropical Indian Ocean climate and tropical cyclone activity

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Samson, G.; Masson, S.; Lengaigne, M.; Keerthi, M.G.; Vialard, J.; Pous, S.; Madec, G.; Jourdain, N.C.; Jullien, S.; Menkes, C.; Marchesiello, P.

    , France, 3Indo-French Cell for Water Sciences, IISc-NIO-IITM-IRD Joint International Laboratory, NIO, Goa, India, 4LMI ICEMASA, IRD, Department of Oceanography, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa, 5Laboratoire de Glaciologie et G... be related to an overly active cumulus parameterization in KF. 1. Introduction The Indian Ocean (IO) is unique among the three tropical oceans for being bounded to the north by the Asian continent. The resulting summer land-sea temperature gradient promotes...

  18. Can a 'state of the art' chemistry transport model really simulate Anazonian tropospheric chemistry

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Barkley, M.; Palmer, P.I.; Ganzeveld, L.N.

    2011-01-01

    We present an evaluation of a nested high-resolution Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS)-Chem chemistry transport model simulation of tropospheric chemistry over tropical South America. The model has been constrained with two isoprene emission inventories: (1) the canopy-scale Model of Emissions

  19. Dependence of tropical cyclone development on coriolis parameter: A theoretical model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Liyuan; Li, Tim; Bi, Mingyu; Liu, Jia; Peng, Melinda

    2018-03-01

    A simple theoretical model was formulated to investigate how tropical cyclone (TC) intensification depends on the Coriolis parameter. The theoretical framework includes a two-layer free atmosphere and an Ekman boundary layer at the bottom. The linkage between the free atmosphere and the boundary layer is through the Ekman pumping vertical velocity in proportion to the vorticity at the top of the boundary layer. The closure of this linear system assumes a simple relationship between the free atmosphere diabatic heating and the boundary layer moisture convergence. Under a set of realistic atmospheric parameter values, the model suggests that the most preferred latitude for TC development is around 5° without considering other factors. The theoretical result is confirmed by high-resolution WRF model simulations in a zero-mean flow and a constant SST environment on an f -plane with different Coriolis parameters. Given an initially balanced weak vortex, the TC-like vortex intensifies most rapidly at the reference latitude of 5°. Thus, the WRF model simulations confirm the f-dependent characteristics of TC intensification rate as suggested by the theoretical model.

  20. A multi-model climate response over tropical Africa at +2 °C

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michel Déqué

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available The impact of a +2 °C global warming on temperature and precipitation over tropical Africa is examined, based on an ensemble of 12 regional climate model scenario simulations. These 12 scenarios are re-phased so that they all correspond to the same global warming of 2 °C with respect to pre-industrial conditions. The continental temperature increase is above the global average. If heat waves are defined with the same temperature threshold in the reference climate and in the scenario, their frequency increases by a factor of 10. When the temperature threshold is adapted to future conditions, there is still a slight increase in frequency. The average precipitation does not show a significant response, due to model-to-model spread. However two compensating phenomena occur, which are robust among the models: (a the number of rain days decreases whereas the precipitation intensity increases, and (b the rain season occurs later during the year with less precipitation in early summer and more precipitation in late summer. Simulated daily temperature and precipitation data are combined in two impact models, one for the hydrology of the Nile and Niger basins, one for the food security of the different countries. They show that the main feature of the climate change is not a continuous trend signal, but an alternation of dry and wet decadal to multidecadal episodes.

  1. Model for Simulation Atmospheric Turbulence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lundtang Petersen, Erik

    1976-01-01

    A method that produces realistic simulations of atmospheric turbulence is developed and analyzed. The procedure makes use of a generalized spectral analysis, often called a proper orthogonal decomposition or the Karhunen-Loève expansion. A set of criteria, emphasizing a realistic appearance...... eigenfunctions and estimates of the distributions of the corresponding expansion coefficients. The simulation method utilizes the eigenfunction expansion procedure to produce preliminary time histories of the three velocity components simultaneously. As a final step, a spectral shaping procedure is then applied....... The method is unique in modeling the three velocity components simultaneously, and it is found that important cross-statistical features are reasonably well-behaved. It is concluded that the model provides a practical, operational simulator of atmospheric turbulence....

  2. Reviews and syntheses: Field data to benchmark the carbon cycle models for tropical forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, Deborah A.; Asao, Shinichi; Fisher, Rosie; Reed, Sasha; Reich, Peter B.; Ryan, Michael G.; Wood, Tana E.; Yang, Xiaojuan

    2017-10-01

    For more accurate projections of both the global carbon (C) cycle and the changing climate, a critical current need is to improve the representation of tropical forests in Earth system models. Tropical forests exchange more C, energy, and water with the atmosphere than any other class of land ecosystems. Further, tropical-forest C cycling is likely responding to the rapid global warming, intensifying water stress, and increasing atmospheric CO2 levels. Projections of the future C balance of the tropics vary widely among global models. A current effort of the modeling community, the ILAMB (International Land Model Benchmarking) project, is to compile robust observations that can be used to improve the accuracy and realism of the land models for all major biomes. Our goal with this paper is to identify field observations of tropical-forest ecosystem C stocks and fluxes, and of their long-term trends and climatic and CO2 sensitivities, that can serve this effort. We propose criteria for reference-level field data from this biome and present a set of documented examples from old-growth lowland tropical forests. We offer these as a starting point towards the goal of a regularly updated consensus set of benchmark field observations of C cycling in tropical forests.

  3. Reviews and syntheses: Field data to benchmark the carbon cycle models for tropical forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, Deborah A.; Asao, Shinichi; Fisher, Rosie A.; Reed, Sasha C.; Reich, Peter B.; Ryan, Michael G.; Wood, Tana E.; Yang, Xiaojuan

    2017-01-01

    For more accurate projections of both the global carbon (C) cycle and the changing climate, a critical current need is to improve the representation of tropical forests in Earth system models. Tropical forests exchange more C, energy, and water with the atmosphere than any other class of land ecosystems. Further, tropical-forest C cycling is likely responding to the rapid global warming, intensifying water stress, and increasing atmospheric CO2 levels. Projections of the future C balance of the tropics vary widely among global models. A current effort of the modeling community, the ILAMB (International Land Model Benchmarking) project, is to compile robust observations that can be used to improve the accuracy and realism of the land models for all major biomes. Our goal with this paper is to identify field observations of tropical-forest ecosystem C stocks and fluxes, and of their long-term trends and climatic and CO2 sensitivities, that can serve this effort. We propose criteria for reference-level field data from this biome and present a set of documented examples from old-growth lowland tropical forests. We offer these as a starting point towards the goal of a regularly updated consensus set of benchmark field observations of C cycling in tropical forests.

  4. Reviews and syntheses: Field data to benchmark the carbon cycle models for tropical forests

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. A. Clark

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available For more accurate projections of both the global carbon (C cycle and the changing climate, a critical current need is to improve the representation of tropical forests in Earth system models. Tropical forests exchange more C, energy, and water with the atmosphere than any other class of land ecosystems. Further, tropical-forest C cycling is likely responding to the rapid global warming, intensifying water stress, and increasing atmospheric CO2 levels. Projections of the future C balance of the tropics vary widely among global models. A current effort of the modeling community, the ILAMB (International Land Model Benchmarking project, is to compile robust observations that can be used to improve the accuracy and realism of the land models for all major biomes. Our goal with this paper is to identify field observations of tropical-forest ecosystem C stocks and fluxes, and of their long-term trends and climatic and CO2 sensitivities, that can serve this effort. We propose criteria for reference-level field data from this biome and present a set of documented examples from old-growth lowland tropical forests. We offer these as a starting point towards the goal of a regularly updated consensus set of benchmark field observations of C cycling in tropical forests.

  5. Determination of chloromethane and dichloromethane in a tropical terrestrial mangrove forest in Brazil by measurements and modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kolusu, S. R.; Schlünzen, K. H.; Grawe, D.; Seifert, R.

    2018-01-01

    Chloromethane (CH3Cl) and dichloromethane (CH2Cl2) are known to have both natural and anthropogenic sources to the atmosphere. From recent studies it is known that tropical and sub tropical plants are primary sources of CH3Cl in the atmosphere. In order to quantify the biogenic emissions of CH3Cl and CH2Cl2 from mangroves, field measurement were conducted in a tropical mangrove forest on the coast of Brazil. To the best of our knowledge these field measurements were the first of its kind conducted in the tropical mangrove ecosystem of Braganca. A mesoscale atmospheric model, MEsoscale TRAnsport and fluid (Stream) model (METRAS), was used to simulate passive tracers concentrations and to study the dependency of concentrations on type of emission function and meteorology. Model simulated concentrations were normalized using the observed field data. With the help of the mesoscale model results and the observed data the mangrove emissions were estimated at the local scale. By using this bottom-up approach the global emissions of CH3Cl and CH2Cl2 from mangroves were quantified. The emission range obtained with different emission functions and different meteorology are 4-7 Gg yr-1 for CH3Cl and 1-2 Gg yr2 for CH2Cl2. Based on the present study the mangroves contribute 0.3 percent of CH2Cl2 and 0.2 percent of CH3Cl in the global emission budget. This study corroborates the study by Manley et al. (2007) which estimated that mangroves produce 0.3 percent of CH3Cl in the global emission budget. Although they contribute a small percentage in the global budget, their long lifetime enables them to contribute to the destruction of ozone in the stratosphere. From the detailed analyses of the model results it can be concluded that meteorology has a larger influence on the variability of concentrations than the temporal variability of the emission function.

  6. MODELLING, SIMULATING AND OPTIMIZING BOILERS

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, K.; Condra, T.; Houbak, Niels

    2003-01-01

    This paper describes the modelling, simulating and optimizing including experimental verification as being carried out as part of a Ph.D. project being written resp. supervised by the authors. The work covers dynamic performance of both water-tube boilers and fire tube boilers. A detailed dynamic...... model of the boiler has been developed and simulations carried out by means of the Matlab integration routines. The model is prepared as a dynamic model consisting of both ordinary differential equations and algebraic equations, together formulated as a Differential-Algebraic-Equation system. Being able...... to operate a boiler plant dynamically means that the boiler designs must be able to absorb any fluctuations in water level and temperature gradients resulting from the pressure change in the boiler. On the one hand a large water-/steam space may be required, i.e. to build the boiler as big as possible. Due...

  7. MODELLING, SIMULATING AND OPTIMIZING BOILERS

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, K.; Condra, T.; Houbak, Niels

    2003-01-01

    This paper describes the modelling, simulating and optimizing including experimental verification as being carried out as part of a Ph.D. project being written resp. supervised by the authors. The work covers dynamic performance of both water-tube boilers and fire tube boilers. A detailed dynamic...... to the internal pressure the consequence of the increased volume (i.e. water-/steam space) is an increased wall thickness in the pressure part of the boiler. The stresses introduced in the boiler pressure part as a result of the temperature gradients are proportional to the square of the wall thickness...... model of the boiler has been developed and simulations carried out by means of the Matlab integration routines. The model is prepared as a dynamic model consisting of both ordinary differential equations and algebraic equations, together formulated as a Differential-Algebraic-Equation system. Being able...

  8. Modeling control in manufacturing simulation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zee, Durk-Jouke van der; Chick, S.; Sánchez, P.J.; Ferrin, D.; Morrice, D.J.

    2003-01-01

    A significant shortcoming of traditional simulation languages is the lack of attention paid to the modeling of control structures, i.e., the humans or systems responsible for manufacturing planning and control, their activities and the mutual tuning of their activities. Mostly they are hard coded

  9. The Formation of Concentric Eyewalls with Heat Sink in a Simple Tropical Cyclone Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jia-Yi Peng

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available A linearized, two-layer axisymmetric model analogous to Schubert el al. (1980 is used to simulate the formation of concentric eyewalls in an ideal strong tropical cyclone. By imposing a heat sink near the center of a cyclone the induced perturbation wind, through thermodynamic adjustment to the heat sink, forms a double-peak structure when the disturbance is added to the basic state tangential wind. The heat sink represents, in a crude way, evaporative cooling of precipitation falling from cloud during late stage convective activity or a cooling through environmental advection. Detailed profiling of the induced double-peak wind structure is dependent on the radial profile of the imposed heat sink. After the double-peak tangential wind structure is formed, if a heat source corresponding to a new convective activity is generated inside the outer maximum tangential wind, the outer eyewall contracts and strengthens while the inner eyewall weakens. This result suggests that thermodynamic adjustments to changes in the heating of a tropical-cyclone-core region may contribute to the formation of the double-eyewall phenomenon.

  10. Evaluating the coupled vegetation-fire model, LPJ-GUESS-SPITFIRE, against observed tropical forest biomass

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spessa, Allan; Forrest, Matthew; Werner, Christian; Steinkamp, Joerg; Hickler, Thomas

    2013-04-01

    disturbance such as fire. SPITFIRE (SPread and InTensity of FIRe and Emissions) mechanistically simulates the number of fires, area burnt, fire intensity, crown fires, fire-induced plant mortality, and emissions of carbon, trace gases and aerosols from biomass burning. Originally developed as an embedded model within LPJ-DGVM, SPITFIRE has since been coupled to LPJ-GUESS. However, neither LPJ-DGVM-SPITFIRE nor LPJ-GUESS-SPITFIRE has been fully benchmarked, especially in terms of how well each model simulates vegetation patterns and biomass in areas where fire is known to be important. This information is crucial if we are to have confidence in the models in forecasting fire, emissions from biomass burning and fire-climate impacts on ecosystems. Here we report on the benchmarking of the LPJ-GUESS-SPITFIRE model. We benchmarked LPJ-GUESS-SPITFIRE driven by a combination of daily reanalysis climate data (Sheffield 2012), monthly GFEDv3 burnt area data (1997-2009) (van der Werf et al. 2010) and long-term annual fire statistics (1901 to 2000) (Mouillot and Field 2005) against new Lidar-based biomass data for tropical forests and savannas (Saatchi et al. 2011; Baccini et al., 2012). Our new work has focused on revising the way GUESS simulates tree allometry, light penetration through the tree canopy and sapling recruitment, and how GUESS-SPITFIRE simulates fire-induced mortality, all based on recent literature, as well as a more explicit accounting of land cover change (JRC's GLC 2009). We present how these combined changes result in a much improved simulation of tree carbon across the tropics, including the Americas, Africa, Asia and Australia. Our results are compared with respect to more empirical-based approaches to calculating emissions from biomass burning. We discuss our findings in terms of improved forecasting of fire, emissions from biomass burning and fire-climate impacts on ecosystems.

  11. Calibration and validation of models for short-term decomposition and N mineralization of plant residues in the tropics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandre Ferreira do Nascimento

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Insight of nutrient release patterns associated with the decomposition of plant residues is important for their effective use as a green manure in food production systems. Thus, this study aimed to evaluate the ability of the Century, APSIM and NDICEA simulation models for predicting the decomposition and N mineralization of crop residues in the tropical Atlantic forest biome, Brazil. The simulation models were calibrated based on actual decomposition and N mineralization rates of three types of crop residues with different chemical and biochemical composition. The models were also validated for different pedo-climatic conditions and crop residues conditions. In general, the accuracy of decomposition and N mineralization improved after calibration. Overall RMSE values for the decomposition and N mineralization of the crop materials varied from 7.4 to 64.6% before models calibration compared to 3.7 to 16.3 % after calibration. Therefore, adequate calibration of the models is indispensable for use them under humid tropical conditions. The NDICEA model generally outperformed the other models. However, the decomposition and N mineralization was not very accurate during the first 30 days of incubation, especially for easily decomposable crop residues. An additional model variable may be required to capture initial microbiological growth as affected by the moisture dynamics of the residues, as is the case in surface residues decomposition models.

  12. A Modeling & Simulation Implementation Framework for Large-Scale Simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Song Xiao

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Classical High Level Architecture (HLA systems are facing development problems for lack of supporting fine-grained component integration and interoperation in large-scale complex simulation applications. To provide efficient methods of this issue, an extensible, reusable and composable simulation framework is proposed. To promote the reusability from coarse-grained federate to fine-grained components, this paper proposes a modelling & simulation framework which consists of component-based architecture, modelling methods, and simulation services to support and simplify the process of complex simulation application construction. Moreover, a standard process and simulation tools are developed to ensure the rapid and effective development of simulation application.

  13. Modeling seasonal surface temperature variations in secondary tropical dry forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Sen; Sanchez-Azofeifa, Arturo

    2017-10-01

    Secondary tropical dry forests (TDFs) provide important ecosystem services such as carbon sequestration, biodiversity conservation, and nutrient cycle regulation. However, their biogeophysical processes at the canopy-atmosphere interface remain unknown, limiting our understanding of how this endangered ecosystem influences, and responds to the ongoing global warming. To facilitate future development of conservation policies, this study characterized the seasonal land surface temperature (LST) behavior of three successional stages (early, intermediate, and late) of a TDF, at the Santa Rosa National Park (SRNP), Costa Rica. A total of 38 Landsat-8 Thermal Infrared Sensor (TIRS) data and the Surface Reflectance (SR) product were utilized to model LST time series from July 2013 to July 2016 using a radiative transfer equation (RTE) algorithm. We further related the LST time series to seven vegetation indices which reflect different properties of TDFs, and soil moisture data obtained from a Wireless Sensor Network (WSN). Results showed that the LST in the dry season was 15-20 K higher than in the wet season at SRNP. We found that the early successional stages were about 6-8 K warmer than the intermediate successional stages and were 9-10 K warmer than the late successional stages in the middle of the dry season; meanwhile, a minimum LST difference (0-1 K) was observed at the end of the wet season. Leaf phenology and canopy architecture explained most LST variations in both dry and wet seasons. However, our analysis revealed that it is precipitation that ultimately determines the LST variations through both biogeochemical (leaf phenology) and biogeophysical processes (evapotranspiration) of the plants. Results of this study could help physiological modeling studies in secondary TDFs.

  14. Validation process of simulation model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    San Isidro, M. J.

    1998-01-01

    It is presented a methodology on empirical validation about any detailed simulation model. This king of validation it is always related with an experimental case. The empirical validation has a residual sense, because the conclusions are based on comparisons between simulated outputs and experimental measurements. This methodology will guide us to detect the fails of the simulation model. Furthermore, it can be used a guide in the design of posterior experiments. Three steps can be well differentiated: Sensitivity analysis. It can be made with a DSA, differential sensitivity analysis, and with a MCSA, Monte-Carlo sensitivity analysis. Looking the optimal domains of the input parameters. It has been developed a procedure based on the Monte-Carlo methods and Cluster techniques, to find the optimal domains of these parameters. Residual analysis. This analysis has been made on the time domain and on the frequency domain, it has been used the correlation analysis and spectral analysis. As application of this methodology, it is presented the validation carried out on a thermal simulation model on buildings, Esp., studying the behavior of building components on a Test Cell of LECE of CIEMAT. (Author) 17 refs

  15. Modeling and Simulation for Safeguards

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Swinhoe, Martyn T. [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2012-07-26

    The purpose of this talk is to give an overview of the role of modeling and simulation in Safeguards R&D and introduce you to (some of) the tools used. Some definitions are: (1) Modeling - the representation, often mathematical, of a process, concept, or operation of a system, often implemented by a computer program; (2) Simulation - the representation of the behavior or characteristics of one system through the use of another system, especially a computer program designed for the purpose; and (3) Safeguards - the timely detection of diversion of significant quantities of nuclear material. The role of modeling and simulation are: (1) Calculate amounts of material (plant modeling); (2) Calculate signatures of nuclear material etc. (source terms); and (3) Detector performance (radiation transport and detection). Plant modeling software (e.g. FACSIM) gives the flows and amount of material stored at all parts of the process. In safeguards this allow us to calculate the expected uncertainty of the mass and evaluate the expected MUF. We can determine the measurement accuracy required to achieve a certain performance.

  16. Model continuity in discrete event simulation: A framework for model-driven development of simulation models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cetinkaya, D; Verbraeck, A.; Seck, MD

    2015-01-01

    Most of the well-known modeling and simulation (M&S) methodologies state the importance of conceptual modeling in simulation studies, and they suggest the use of conceptual models during the simulation model development process. However, only a limited number of methodologies refers to how to

  17. Assessment of Molecular Modeling & Simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2002-01-03

    This report reviews the development and applications of molecular and materials modeling in Europe and Japan in comparison to those in the United States. Topics covered include computational quantum chemistry, molecular simulations by molecular dynamics and Monte Carlo methods, mesoscale modeling of material domains, molecular-structure/macroscale property correlations like QSARs and QSPRs, and related information technologies like informatics and special-purpose molecular-modeling computers. The panel's findings include the following: The United States leads this field in many scientific areas. However, Canada has particular strengths in DFT methods and homogeneous catalysis; Europe in heterogeneous catalysis, mesoscale, and materials modeling; and Japan in materials modeling and special-purpose computing. Major government-industry initiatives are underway in Europe and Japan, notably in multi-scale materials modeling and in development of chemistry-capable ab-initio molecular dynamics codes.

  18. A Model for Estimation of Rain Rate on Tropical Land from TRMM Microwave Imager Radiometer Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prabhakara, C.; Iacovazzi, R., Jr.; Yoo, J.-M.; Kim, Kyu-Myong

    2004-01-01

    Over the tropical land regions observations of the 85 GHz brightness temperature (T(sub 85v)) made by the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) radiometer when analyzed with the help of rain rate (R(sub pR)) deduced from the TRMM Precipitation Radar (PR) indicate that there are two maxima in rain rate. One strong maximum occurs when T(sub 85) has a value of about 220 K and the other weaker one when T(sub 85v) is much colder approx. 150 K. Together with the help of earlier studies based on airborne Doppler Radar observations and radiative transfer theoretical simulations, we infer the maximum near 220 K is a result of relatively weak scattering due to super cooled rain drops and water coated ice hydrometeors associated with a developing thunderstorm (Cb) that has a strong updraft. The other maximum is associated with strong scattering due to ice particles that are formed when the updraft collapses and the rain from the Cb is transit2oning from convective type to stratiform type. Incorporating these ideas and with a view to improve the estimation of rain rate from existing operational method applicable to the tropical land areas, we have developed a rain retrieval model. This model utilizes two parameters, that have a horizontal scale of approx. 20km, deduced from the TMI measurements at 19, 21 and 37 GHz (T(sub 19v), T(sub 21v), T(sub 37v). The third parameter in the model, namely the horizontal gradient of brightness temperature within the 20 km scale, is deduced from TMI measurements at 85 GHz. Utilizing these parameters our retrieval model is formulated to yield instantaneous rain rate on a scale of 20 km and seasonal average on a mesoscale that agree well with that of the PR.

  19. Tropical radioecology

    CERN Document Server

    Baxter, M

    2012-01-01

    Tropical Radioecology is a guide to the wide range of scientific practices and principles of this multidisciplinary field. It brings together past and present studies in the tropical and sub-tropical areas of the planet, highlighting the unique aspects of tropical systems. Until recently, radioecological models for tropical environments have depended upon data derived from temperate environments, despite the differences of these regions in terms of biota and abiotic conditions. Since radioactivity can be used to trace environmental processes in humans and other biota, this book offers examples of studies in which radiotracers have been used to assess biokinetics in tropical biota. Features chapters, co-authored by world experts, that explain the origins, inputs, distribution, behaviour, and consequences of radioactivity in tropical and subtropical systems. Provides comprehensive lists of relevant data and identifies current knowledge gaps to allow for targeted radioecological research in the future. Integrate...

  20. Atmospheric Corrosion Behavior and Mechanism of a Ni-Advanced Weathering Steel in Simulated Tropical Marine Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Wei; Zeng, Zhongping; Cheng, Xuequn; Li, Xiaogang; Liu, Bo

    2017-12-01

    Corrosion behavior of Ni-advanced weathering steel, as well as carbon steel and conventional weathering steel, in a simulated tropical marine atmosphere was studied by field exposure and indoor simulation tests. Meanwhile, morphology and composition of corrosion products formed on the exposed steels were surveyed through scanning electron microscopy, energy-dispersive x-ray spectroscopy and x-ray diffraction. Results indicated that the additive Ni in weathering steel played an important role during the corrosion process, which took part in the formation of corrosion products, enriched in the inner rust layer and promoted the transformation from loose γ-FeOOH to dense α-FeOOH. As a result, the main aggressive ion, i.e., Cl-, was effectively separated in the outer rust layer which leads to the lowest corrosion rate among these tested steels. Thus, the resistance of Ni-advanced weathering steel to atmospheric corrosion was significantly improved in a simulated tropical marine environment.

  1. Hydrological modeling of Fecal Indicator Bacteria in a tropical mountain catchment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Minjeong; Boithias, Laurie; Cho, Kyung Hwa; Silvera, Norbert; Thammahacksa, Chanthamousone; Latsachack, Keooudone; Rochelle-Newall, Emma; Sengtaheuanghoung, Oloth; Pierret, Alain; Pachepsky, Yakov A; Ribolzi, Olivier

    2017-08-01

    The occurrence of pathogen bacteria in surface waters is a threat to public health worldwide. In particular, inadequate sanitation resulting in high contamination of surface water with pathogens of fecal origin is a serious issue in developing countries such as Lao P.D.R. Despite the health implications of the consumption of contaminated surface water, the environmental fate and transport of pathogens of fecal origin and their indicators (Fecal Indicator Bacteria or FIB) are still poorly known in tropical areas. In this study, we used measurements of flow rates, suspended sediments and of the FIB Escherichia coli (E. coli) in a 60-ha catchment in Northern Laos to explore the ability of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to simulate watershed-scale FIB fate and transport. We assessed the influences of 3 in-stream processes, namely bacteria deposition and resuspension, bacterial regrowth, and hyporheic exchange (i.e. transient storage) on predicted FIB numbers. We showed that the SWAT model in its original version does not correctly simulate small E. coli numbers during the dry season. We showed that model's performance could be improved when considering the release of E. coli together with sediment resuspension. We demonstrated that the hyporheic exchange of bacteria across the Sediment-Water Interface (SWI) should be considered when simulating FIB concentration not only during wet weather, but also during the dry season, or baseflow period. In contrast, the implementation of the regrowth process did not improve the model during the dry season without inducing an overestimation during the wet season. This work thus underlines the importance of taking into account in-stream processes, such as deposition and resuspension, regrowth and hyporheic exchange, when using SWAT to simulate FIB dynamics in surface waters. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Modeling extreme sea levels due to tropical and extra-tropical cyclones at the global-scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muis, S.; Lin, N.; Verlaan, M.; Winsemius, H.; Ward, P.; Aerts, J.

    2017-12-01

    Extreme sea levels, a combination of storm surges and astronomical tides, can cause catastrophic floods. Due to their intense wind speeds and low pressure, tropical cyclones (TCs) typically cause higher storm surges than extra-tropical cyclones (ETCs), but ETCs may still contribute significantly to the overall flood risk. In this contribution, we show a novel approach to model extreme sea levels due to both tropical and extra-tropical cyclones at the global-scale. Using a global hydrodynamic model we have developed the Global Tide and Surge Reanalysis (GTSR) dataset (Muis et al., 2016), which provides daily maximum timeseries of storm tide from 1979 to 2014. GTSR is based on wind and pressure fields from the ERA-Interim climate reanalysis (Dee at al., 2011). A severe limitation of the GTSR dataset is the underrepresentation of TCs. This is due to the relatively coarse grid resolution of ERA-Interim, which means that the strong intensities of TCs are not fully included. Furthermore, the length of ERA-Interim is too short to estimate the probabilities of extreme TCs in a reliable way. We will discuss potential ways to address this limitation, and demonstrate how to improve the global GTSR framework. We will apply the improved framework to the east coast of the United States. First, we improve our meteorological forcing by applying a parametric hurricane model (Holland 1980), and we improve the tide and surge reanalysis dataset (Muis et al., 2016) by explicitly modeling the historical TCs in the Extended Best Track dataset (Demuth et al., 2006). Second, we improve our sampling by statistically extending the observed TC record to many thousands of years (Emanuel et al., 2006). The improved framework allows for the mapping of probabilities of extreme sea levels, including extremes TC events, for the east coast of the United States. ReferencesDee et al (2011). The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system. Q. J. R. Meteorol

  3. Simulating spin models on GPU

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weigel, Martin

    2011-09-01

    Over the last couple of years it has been realized that the vast computational power of graphics processing units (GPUs) could be harvested for purposes other than the video game industry. This power, which at least nominally exceeds that of current CPUs by large factors, results from the relative simplicity of the GPU architectures as compared to CPUs, combined with a large number of parallel processing units on a single chip. To benefit from this setup for general computing purposes, the problems at hand need to be prepared in a way to profit from the inherent parallelism and hierarchical structure of memory accesses. In this contribution I discuss the performance potential for simulating spin models, such as the Ising model, on GPU as compared to conventional simulations on CPU.

  4. Contribution of different processes to changes in tropical lower-stratospheric water vapor in chemistry–climate models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. M. Smalley

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Variations in tropical lower-stratospheric humidity influence both the chemistry and climate of the atmosphere. We analyze tropical lower-stratospheric water vapor in 21st century simulations from 12 state-of-the-art chemistry–climate models (CCMs, using a linear regression model to determine the factors driving the trends and variability. Within CCMs, warming of the troposphere primarily drives the long-term trend in stratospheric humidity. This is partially offset in most CCMs by an increase in the strength of the Brewer–Dobson circulation, which tends to cool the tropical tropopause layer (TTL. We also apply the regression model to individual decades from the 21st century CCM runs and compare them to a regression of a decade of observations. Many of the CCMs, but not all, compare well with these observations, lending credibility to their predictions. One notable deficiency is that most CCMs underestimate the impact of the quasi-biennial oscillation on lower-stratospheric water vapor. Our analysis provides a new and potentially superior way to evaluate model trends in lower-stratospheric humidity.

  5. Damage costs of climate change through intensification of tropical cyclone activities: An application of FUND

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Narita, D.; Anthoff, D.; Tol, R.S.J.

    2009-01-01

    Climate change may intensify tropical cyclone activities and amplify their negative economic effects. We simulated the direct economic impact of tropical cyclones enhanced by climate change with the integrated assessment model Climate Framework for Uncertainty, Negotiation and Distribution (FUND),

  6. The influence of biogenic emissions from Africa on tropical tropospheric ozone during 2006: a global modeling study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. E. Williams

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available We have performed simulations using a 3-D global chemistry-transport model to investigate the influence that biogenic emissions from the African continent exert on the composition of the troposphere in the tropical region. For this purpose we have applied two recently developed biogenic emission inventories provided for use in large-scale global models (Granier et al., 2005; Lathière et al., 2006 whose seasonality and temporal distribution for biogenic emissions of isoprene, other volatile organic compounds and NO is markedly different. The use of the 12 year average values for biogenic emissions provided by Lathière et al. (2006 results in an increase in the amount of nitrogen sequestrated into longer lived reservoir compounds which contributes to the reduction in the tropospheric ozone burden in the tropics. The associated re-partitioning of nitrogen between PAN, HNO3 and organic nitrates also results in a ~5% increase in the loss of nitrogen by wet deposition. At a global scale there is a reduction in the oxidizing capacity of the model atmosphere which increases the atmospheric lifetimes of CH4 and CO by ~1.5% and ~4%, respectively. Comparisons against a range of different measurements indicate that applying the 12 year average of Lathière et al. (2006 improves the performance of TM4_AMMA for 2006 in the tropics. By the use of sensitivity studies we show that the release of NO from soils in Africa accounts for between ~2–45% of tropospheric ozone in the African troposphere, ~10% in the upper troposphere and between ~5–20% of the tropical tropospheric ozone column over the tropical Atlantic Ocean. The subsequent reduction in OH over the source regions allows enhanced transport of CO out of the region. For biogenic volatile organic C1 to C3 species released from Africa, the effects on tropical tropospheric ozone are rather limited, although this source contributes to the global burden of VOC by between ~2–4% and

  7. Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) simulations of climate following volcanic eruptions

    KAUST Repository

    Driscoll, Simon

    2012-09-16

    The ability of the climate models submitted to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) database to simulate the Northern Hemisphere winter climate following a large tropical volcanic eruption is assessed. When sulfate aerosols are produced by volcanic injections into the tropical stratosphere and spread by the stratospheric circulation, it not only causes globally averaged tropospheric cooling but also a localized heating in the lower stratosphere, which can cause major dynamical feedbacks. Observations show a lower stratospheric and surface response during the following one or two Northern Hemisphere (NH) winters, that resembles the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Simulations from 13 CMIP5 models that represent tropical eruptions in the 19th and 20th century are examined, focusing on the large-scale regional impacts associated with the large-scale circulation during the NH winter season. The models generally fail to capture the NH dynamical response following eruptions. They do not sufficiently simulate the observed post-volcanic strengthened NH polar vortex, positive NAO, or NH Eurasian warming pattern, and they tend to overestimate the cooling in the tropical troposphere. The findings are confirmed by a superposed epoch analysis of the NAO index for each model. The study confirms previous similar evaluations and raises concern for the ability of current climate models to simulate the response of a major mode of global circulation variability to external forcings. This is also of concern for the accuracy of geoengineering modeling studies that assess the atmospheric response to stratosphere-injected particles.

  8. Creating Simulated Microgravity Patient Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hurst, Victor; Doerr, Harold K.; Bacal, Kira

    2004-01-01

    The Medical Operational Support Team (MOST) has been tasked by the Space and Life Sciences Directorate (SLSD) at the NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC) to integrate medical simulation into 1) medical training for ground and flight crews and into 2) evaluations of medical procedures and equipment for the International Space Station (ISS). To do this, the MOST requires patient models that represent the physiological changes observed during spaceflight. Despite the presence of physiological data collected during spaceflight, there is no defined set of parameters that illustrate or mimic a 'space normal' patient. Methods: The MOST culled space-relevant medical literature and data from clinical studies performed in microgravity environments. The areas of focus for data collection were in the fields of cardiovascular, respiratory and renal physiology. Results: The MOST developed evidence-based patient models that mimic the physiology believed to be induced by human exposure to a microgravity environment. These models have been integrated into space-relevant scenarios using a human patient simulator and ISS medical resources. Discussion: Despite the lack of a set of physiological parameters representing 'space normal,' the MOST developed space-relevant patient models that mimic microgravity-induced changes in terrestrial physiology. These models are used in clinical scenarios that will medically train flight surgeons, biomedical flight controllers (biomedical engineers; BME) and, eventually, astronaut-crew medical officers (CMO).

  9. Ultraviolet radiation modelling from ground-based and satellite measurements on Reunion Island, southern tropics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Lamy

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Surface ultraviolet radiation (SUR is not an increasing concern after the implementation of the Montreal Protocol and the recovery of the ozone layer Morgenstern et al.(2008. However, large uncertainties remain in the prediction of future changes of SUR Bais et al.(2015. Several studies pointed out that UV-B impacts the biosphere Erickson et al.(2015, especially the aquatic system, which plays a central part in the biogeochemical cycle Hader et al.(2007. It can affect phytoplankton productivity Smith and Cullen(1995. This influence can result in either positive or negative feedback on climate (Zepp et al., 2007. Global circulation model simulations predict an acceleration of the Brewer-Dobson circulation over the next century (Butchart, 2014, which would lead to a decrease in ozone levels in the tropics and an enhancement at higher latitudes (Hegglin and Shepherd, 2009. Reunion Island is located in the tropics (21° S, 55° E, in a part of the world where the amount of ozone in the ozone column is naturally low. In addition, this island is mountainous and the marine atmosphere is often clean with low aerosol concentrations. Thus, measurements show much higher SUR than at other sites at the same latitude or at midlatitudes. Ground-based measurements of SUR have been taken on Reunion Island by a Bentham DTMc300 spectroradiometer since 2009. This instrument is affiliated with the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC. In order to quantify the future evolution of SUR in the tropics, it is necessary to validate a model against present observations. This study is designed to be a preliminary parametric and sensitivity study of SUR modelling in the tropics. We developed a local parameterisation using the Tropospheric Ultraviolet and Visible Model (TUV; Madronich, 1993 and compared the output of TUV to multiple years of Bentham spectral measurements. This comparison started in early 2009 and continued until 2016

  10. Ultraviolet radiation modelling from ground-based and satellite measurements on Reunion Island, southern tropics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamy, Kévin; Portafaix, Thierry; Brogniez, Colette; Godin-Beekmann, Sophie; Bencherif, Hassan; Morel, Béatrice; Pazmino, Andrea; Metzger, Jean Marc; Auriol, Frédérique; Deroo, Christine; Duflot, Valentin; Goloub, Philippe; Long, Charles N.

    2018-01-01

    Surface ultraviolet radiation (SUR) is not an increasing concern after the implementation of the Montreal Protocol and the recovery of the ozone layer (Morgenstern et al., 2008). However, large uncertainties remain in the prediction of future changes of SUR (Bais et al., 2015). Several studies pointed out that UV-B impacts the biosphere (Erickson et al., 2015), especially the aquatic system, which plays a central part in the biogeochemical cycle (Hader et al., 2007). It can affect phytoplankton productivity (Smith and Cullen, 1995). This influence can result in either positive or negative feedback on climate (Zepp et al., 2007). Global circulation model simulations predict an acceleration of the Brewer-Dobson circulation over the next century (Butchart, 2014), which would lead to a decrease in ozone levels in the tropics and an enhancement at higher latitudes (Hegglin and Shepherd, 2009). Reunion Island is located in the tropics (21° S, 55° E), in a part of the world where the amount of ozone in the ozone column is naturally low. In addition, this island is mountainous and the marine atmosphere is often clean with low aerosol concentrations. Thus, measurements show much higher SUR than at other sites at the same latitude or at midlatitudes. Ground-based measurements of SUR have been taken on Reunion Island by a Bentham DTMc300 spectroradiometer since 2009. This instrument is affiliated with the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC). In order to quantify the future evolution of SUR in the tropics, it is necessary to validate a model against present observations. This study is designed to be a preliminary parametric and sensitivity study of SUR modelling in the tropics. We developed a local parameterisation using the Tropospheric Ultraviolet and Visible Model (TUV; Madronich, 1993) and compared the output of TUV to multiple years of Bentham spectral measurements. This comparison started in early 2009 and continued until 2016. Only

  11. General introduction to simulation models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hisham Beshara Halasa, Tariq; Boklund, Anette

    2012-01-01

    Monte Carlo simulation can be defined as a representation of real life systems to gain insight into their functions and to investigate the effects of alternative conditions or actions on the modeled system. Models are a simplification of a system. Most often, it is best to use experiments and fie...... as support decision making. However, several other factors affect decision making such as, ethics, politics and economics. Furthermore, the insight gained when models are build leads to point out areas where knowledge is lacking....... of FMD spread that can provide useful and trustworthy advises, there are four important issues, which the model should represent: 1) The herd structure of the country in question, 2) the dynamics of animal movements and contacts between herds, 3) the biology of the disease, and 4) the regulations...

  12. Modeling fire behavior on tropical islands with high-resolution weather data

    Science.gov (United States)

    John W. Benoit; Francis M. Fujioka; David R. Weise

    2009-01-01

    In this study, we consider fire behavior simulation in tropical island scenarios such as Hawaii and Puerto Rico. The development of a system to provide real-time fire behavior prediction in Hawaii is discussed. This involves obtaining fuels and topography information at a fine scale, as well as supplying daily high-resolution weather forecast data for the area of...

  13. Stratospheric dryness: model simulations and satellite observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Lelieveld

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available The mechanisms responsible for the extreme dryness of the stratosphere have been debated for decades. A key difficulty has been the lack of comprehensive models which are able to reproduce the observations. Here we examine results from the coupled lower-middle atmosphere chemistry general circulation model ECHAM5/MESSy1 together with satellite observations. Our model results match observed temperatures in the tropical lower stratosphere and realistically represent the seasonal and inter-annual variability of water vapor. The model reproduces the very low water vapor mixing ratios (below 2 ppmv periodically observed at the tropical tropopause near 100 hPa, as well as the characteristic tape recorder signal up to about 10 hPa, providing evidence that the dehydration mechanism is well-captured. Our results confirm that the entry of tropospheric air into the tropical stratosphere is forced by large-scale wave dynamics, whereas radiative cooling regionally decelerates upwelling and can even cause downwelling. Thin cirrus forms in the cold air above cumulonimbus clouds, and the associated sedimentation of ice particles between 100 and 200 hPa reduces water mass fluxes by nearly two orders of magnitude compared to air mass fluxes. Transport into the stratosphere is supported by regional net radiative heating, to a large extent in the outer tropics. During summer very deep monsoon convection over Southeast Asia, centered over Tibet, moistens the stratosphere.

  14. Influence of landscape heterogeneity on water available to tropical forests in an Amazonian catchment and implications for modeling drought response: Water Available to Tropical Forest

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fang, Yilin; Leung, Lai-Yung; Duan, Zhuoran; Wigmosta, Mark S.; Maxwell, Reed M.; Chambers, Jeffrey Q.; Tomasella, Javier

    2017-08-18

    The Amazon basin experienced periodic droughts in the past, and climate models projected more intense and frequent droughts in the future. How tropical forests respond to drought may depend on water availability, which is modulated by landscape heterogeneity. Using the one-dimensional ACME Land Model (ALM) and the three-dimensional ParFlow variably saturated flow model, a series of numerical experiments were performed for the Asu catchment in central Amazon to elucidate processes that influence water available for plant use and provide insights for improving Earth system models. Results from ParFlow show that topography has a dominant influence on groundwater table and runoff through lateral flow. Without any representations of lateral processes, ALM simulates very different seasonal variations in groundwater table and runoff compared to ParFlow even if it is able to reproduce the long-term spatial average groundwater table of ParFlow through simple parameter calibration. In the ParFlow simulations, the groundwater table is evidently deeper and the soil saturation is lower in the plateau compared to the valley. However, even in the plateau during the dry season in the drought year of 2005, plant transpiration is not water stressed in the ParFlow simulations as the soil saturation is still sufficient to maintain a soil matric potential for the stomata to be fully open. This finding is insensitive to uncertainty in atmospheric forcing and soil parameters, but the empirical wilting formulation used in the models is an important factor that should be addressed using observations and modeling of coupled plant hydraulics-soil hydrology processes in future studies.

  15. Advances in Intelligent Modelling and Simulation Simulation Tools and Applications

    CERN Document Server

    Oplatková, Zuzana; Carvalho, Marco; Kisiel-Dorohinicki, Marek

    2012-01-01

    The human capacity to abstract complex systems and phenomena into simplified models has played a critical role in the rapid evolution of our modern industrial processes and scientific research. As a science and an art, Modelling and Simulation have been one of the core enablers of this remarkable human trace, and have become a topic of great importance for researchers and practitioners. This book was created to compile some of the most recent concepts, advances, challenges and ideas associated with Intelligent Modelling and Simulation frameworks, tools and applications. The first chapter discusses the important aspects of a human interaction and the correct interpretation of results during simulations. The second chapter gets to the heart of the analysis of entrepreneurship by means of agent-based modelling and simulations. The following three chapters bring together the central theme of simulation frameworks, first describing an agent-based simulation framework, then a simulator for electrical machines, and...

  16. Process-level improvements in CMIP5 models and their impact on tropical variability, the Southern Ocean, and monsoons

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Lauer

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The performance of updated versions of the four earth system models (ESMs CNRM, EC-Earth, HadGEM, and MPI-ESM is assessed in comparison to their predecessor versions used in Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. The Earth System Model Evaluation Tool (ESMValTool is applied to evaluate selected climate phenomena in the models against observations. This is the first systematic application of the ESMValTool to assess and document the progress made during an extensive model development and improvement project. This study focuses on the South Asian monsoon (SAM and the West African monsoon (WAM, the coupled equatorial climate, and Southern Ocean clouds and radiation, which are known to exhibit systematic biases in present-day ESMs. The analysis shows that the tropical precipitation in three out of four models is clearly improved. Two of three updated coupled models show an improved representation of tropical sea surface temperatures with one coupled model not exhibiting a double Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ. Simulated cloud amounts and cloud–radiation interactions are improved over the Southern Ocean. Improvements are also seen in the simulation of the SAM and WAM, although systematic biases remain in regional details and the timing of monsoon rainfall. Analysis of simulations with EC-Earth at different horizontal resolutions from T159 up to T1279 shows that the synoptic-scale variability in precipitation over the SAM and WAM regions improves with higher model resolution. The results suggest that the reasonably good agreement of modeled and observed mean WAM and SAM rainfall in lower-resolution models may be a result of unrealistic intensity distributions.

  17. Process-level improvements in CMIP5 models and their impact on tropical variability, the Southern Ocean, and monsoons

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lauer, Axel; Jones, Colin; Eyring, Veronika; Evaldsson, Martin; Hagemann, Stefan; Mäkelä, Jarmo; Martin, Gill; Roehrig, Romain; Wang, Shiyu

    2018-01-01

    The performance of updated versions of the four earth system models (ESMs) CNRM, EC-Earth, HadGEM, and MPI-ESM is assessed in comparison to their predecessor versions used in Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. The Earth System Model Evaluation Tool (ESMValTool) is applied to evaluate selected climate phenomena in the models against observations. This is the first systematic application of the ESMValTool to assess and document the progress made during an extensive model development and improvement project. This study focuses on the South Asian monsoon (SAM) and the West African monsoon (WAM), the coupled equatorial climate, and Southern Ocean clouds and radiation, which are known to exhibit systematic biases in present-day ESMs. The analysis shows that the tropical precipitation in three out of four models is clearly improved. Two of three updated coupled models show an improved representation of tropical sea surface temperatures with one coupled model not exhibiting a double Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Simulated cloud amounts and cloud-radiation interactions are improved over the Southern Ocean. Improvements are also seen in the simulation of the SAM and WAM, although systematic biases remain in regional details and the timing of monsoon rainfall. Analysis of simulations with EC-Earth at different horizontal resolutions from T159 up to T1279 shows that the synoptic-scale variability in precipitation over the SAM and WAM regions improves with higher model resolution. The results suggest that the reasonably good agreement of modeled and observed mean WAM and SAM rainfall in lower-resolution models may be a result of unrealistic intensity distributions.

  18. Verifying and Validating Simulation Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hemez, Francois M. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2015-02-23

    This presentation is a high-level discussion of the Verification and Validation (V&V) of computational models. Definitions of V&V are given to emphasize that “validation” is never performed in a vacuum; it accounts, instead, for the current state-of-knowledge in the discipline considered. In particular comparisons between physical measurements and numerical predictions should account for their respective sources of uncertainty. The differences between error (bias), aleatoric uncertainty (randomness) and epistemic uncertainty (ignorance, lack-of- knowledge) are briefly discussed. Four types of uncertainty in physics and engineering are discussed: 1) experimental variability, 2) variability and randomness, 3) numerical uncertainty and 4) model-form uncertainty. Statistical sampling methods are available to propagate, and analyze, variability and randomness. Numerical uncertainty originates from the truncation error introduced by the discretization of partial differential equations in time and space. Model-form uncertainty is introduced by assumptions often formulated to render a complex problem more tractable and amenable to modeling and simulation. The discussion concludes with high-level guidance to assess the “credibility” of numerical simulations, which stems from the level of rigor with which these various sources of uncertainty are assessed and quantified.

  19. Numerical simulations and observations of surface wave fields under an extreme tropical cyclone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Y.; Ginis, I.; Hara, T.; Wright, C.W.; Walsh, E.J.

    2009-01-01

    The performance of the wave model WAVEWATCH III under a very strong, category 5, tropical cyclone wind forcing is investigated with different drag coefficient parameterizations and ocean current inputs. The model results are compared with field observations of the surface wave spectra from an airborne scanning radar altimeter, National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) time series, and satellite altimeter measurements in Hurricane Ivan (2004). The results suggest that the model with the original drag coefficient parameterization tends to overestimate the significant wave height and the dominant wavelength and produces a wave spectrum with narrower directional spreading. When an improved drag parameterization is introduced and the wave-current interaction is included, the model yields an improved forecast of significant wave height, but underestimates the dominant wavelength. When the hurricane moves over a preexisting mesoscale ocean feature, such as the Loop Current in the Gulf of Mexico or a warm-and cold-core ring, the current associated with the feature can accelerate or decelerate the wave propagation and significantly modulate the wave spectrum. ?? 2009 American Meteorological Society.

  20. Shading and simulated grazing increase the sulphide pool and methane emission in a tropical seagrass meadow.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lyimo, Liberatus D; Gullström, Martin; Lyimo, Thomas J; Deyanova, Diana; Dahl, Martin; Hamisi, Mariam I; Björk, Mats

    2017-09-18

    Though seagrass meadows are among the most productive habitats in the world, contributing substantially to long-term carbon storage, studies of the effects of critical disturbances on the fate of carbon sequestered in the sediment and biomass of these meadows are scarce. In a manipulative in situ experiment, we studied the effects of successive loss of seagrass biomass as a result of shading and simulated grazing at two intensity levels on sulphide (H 2 S) content and methane (CH 4 ) emission in a tropical seagrass meadow in Zanzibar (Tanzania). In all disturbed treatments, we found a several-fold increase in both the sulphide concentration of the sediment pore-water and the methane emissions from the sediment surface (except for CH 4 emissions in the low-shading treatment). This could be due to the ongoing degradation of belowground biomass shed by the seagrass plants, supporting the production of both sulphate-reducing bacteria and methanogens, possibly exacerbated by the loss of downwards oxygen transport via seagrass plants. The worldwide rapid loss of seagrass areas due to anthropogenic activities may therefore have significant effects on carbon sink-source relationships within coastal seas. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. MODELLING, SIMULATING AND OPTIMIZING BOILERS

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Kim; Condra, Thomas Joseph; Houbak, Niels

    2004-01-01

    In the present work a framework for optimizing the design of boilers for dynamic operation has been developed. A cost function to be minimized during the optimization has been formulated and for the present design variables related to the Boiler Volume and the Boiler load Gradient (i.e. ring rate...... on the boiler) have been dened. Furthermore a number of constraints related to: minimum and maximum boiler load gradient, minimum boiler size, Shrinking and Swelling and Steam Space Load have been dened. For dening the constraints related to the required boiler volume a dynamic model for simulating the boiler...... performance has been developed. Outputs from the simulations are shrinking and swelling of water level in the drum during for example a start-up of the boiler, these gures combined with the requirements with respect to allowable water level uctuations in the drum denes the requirements with respect to drum...

  2. Climatology of extratropical transition for North Atlantic tropical cyclones in the high-resolution GFDL climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, M.; Vecchi, G. A.; Smith, J. A.

    2015-12-01

    The extratropical transition (ET) process of tropical cyclones can lead to fundamental changes in hurricane structure and storms that continue to pose large threats to life and properties. Given the importance of ET, it is necessary to understand how ET changes under a warming climate. Towards this goal, the GFDL climate model (FLOR) is first used to understand the current-day ET climatology. The standard model and a flux-adjusted version of FLOR are both used to examine ET climatology. The operational cyclone phase space method is used to define the onset and completion times of ET. The ET climatology from the climate model is compared with those from two reanalysis data sets ranging from 1979 to 2012. Both models exhibit good skills at simulating the frequency map of phase space diagram. The flux-adjusted version shows much better skill in capturing the ET climatology in terms of ET track patterns, ET locations and monthly ET variations. The model is able to simulate the frequency ratio of reintensified tropical cyclones from all ET cases. Future work involves examining changes in the ET climatology under a changing climate.

  3. Determination of hydraulic properties of a tropical soil of Hawaii using column experiments and inverse modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martina Sobotkova

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available A method for determining soil hydraulic properties of a weathered tropical soil (Oxisol using a medium-sized column with undisturbed soil is presented. The method was used to determine fitting parameters of the water retention curve and hydraulic conductivity functions of a soil column in support of a pesticide leaching study. The soil column was extracted from a continuously-used research plot in Central Oahu (Hawaii, USA and its internal structure was examined by computed tomography. The experiment was based on tension infiltration into the soil column with free outflow at the lower end. Water flow through the soil core was mathematically modeled using a computer code that numerically solves the one-dimensional Richards equation. Measured soil hydraulic parameters were used for direct simulation, and the retention and soil hydraulic parameters were estimated by inverse modeling. The inverse modeling produced very good agreement between model outputs and measured flux and pressure head data for the relatively homogeneous column. The moisture content at a given pressure from the retention curve measured directly in small soil samples was lower than that obtained through parameter optimization based on experiments using a medium-sized undisturbed soil column.

  4. The LMDZ4 general circulation model: climate performance and sensitivity to parametrized physics with emphasis on tropical convection

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hourdin, Frederic; Musat, Ionela; Bony, Sandrine; Codron, Francis; Dufresne, Jean-Louis; Fairhead, Laurent; Grandpeix, Jean-Yves; LeVan, Phu; Li, Zhao-Xin; Lott, Francois [CNRS/UPMC, Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique (LMD/IPSL), Paris Cedex 05 (France); Braconnot, Pascale; Friedlingstein, Pierre [Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l' Environnement (LSCE/IPSL), Saclay (France); Filiberti, Marie-Angele [Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL), Paris (France); Krinner, Gerhard [Laboratoire de Glaciologie et Geophysique de l' Environnement, Grenoble (France)

    2006-12-15

    The LMDZ4 general circulation model is the atmospheric component of the IPSL-CM4 coupled model which has been used to perform climate change simulations for the 4th IPCC assessment report. The main aspects of the model climatology (forced by observed sea surface temperature) are documented here, as well as the major improvements with respect to the previous versions, which mainly come form the parametrization of tropical convection. A methodology is proposed to help analyse the sensitivity of the tropical Hadley-Walker circulation to the parametrization of cumulus convection and clouds. The tropical circulation is characterized using scalar potentials associated with the horizontal wind and horizontal transport of geopotential (the Laplacian of which is proportional to the total vertical momentum in the atmospheric column). The effect of parametrized physics is analysed in a regime sorted framework using the vertical velocity at 500 hPa as a proxy for large scale vertical motion. Compared to Tiedtke's convection scheme, used in previous versions, the Emanuel's scheme improves the representation of the Hadley-Walker circulation, with a relatively stronger and deeper large scale vertical ascent over tropical continents, and suppresses the marked patterns of concentrated rainfall over oceans. Thanks to the regime sorted analyses, these differences are attributed to intrinsic differences in the vertical distribution of convective heating, and to the lack of self-inhibition by precipitating downdraughts in Tiedtke's parametrization. Both the convection and cloud schemes are shown to control the relative importance of large scale convection over land and ocean, an important point for the behaviour of the coupled model. (orig.)

  5. Seasonal & Daily Amazon Column CO2 & CO Observations from Ground & Space Used to Evaluate Tropical Ecosystem Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dubey, M. K.; Parker, H. A.; Wennberg, P. O.; Wunch, D.; Jacobson, A. R.; Kawa, S. R.; Keppel-Aleks, G.; Basu, S.; O'Dell, C.; Frankenberg, C.; Michalak, A. M.; Baker, D. F.; Christofferson, B.; Restrepo-Coupe, N.; Saleska, S. R.; De Araujo, A. C.; Miller, J. B.

    2016-12-01

    The Amazon basin stores 150-200 PgC, exchanges 18 PgC with the atmosphere every year and has taken up 0.42-0.65 PgC/y over the past two decades. Despite its global significance, the response of the tropical carbon cycle to climate variability and change is ill constrained as evidenced by the large negative and positive feedbacks in future climate simulations. The complex interplay of radiation, water and ecosystem phenology remains unresolved in current tropical ecosystem models. We use high frequency regional scale TCCON observations of column CO2, CO and CH4 near Manaus, Brazil that began in October 2014 to understand the aforementioned interplay of processes in regulating biosphere-atmosphere exchange. We observe a robust daily column CO2 uptake of about 2 ppm (4 ppm to 0.5 ppm) over 8 hours and evaluate how it changes as we transition to the dry season. Back-trajectory calculations show that the daily CO2 uptake footprint is terrestrial and influenced by the heterogeneity of the Amazon rain forests. The column CO falls from above 120 ppb to below 80 ppb as we transition from the biomass burning to wet seasons. The daily mean column CO2 rises by 3 ppm from October through June. Removal of biomass burning, secular CO2 increase and variations from transport (by Carbon tracker simulations) implies an increase of 2.3 ppm results from tropical biospheric processes (respiration and photosynthesis). This is consistent with ground-based remote sensing and eddy flux observations that indicate that leaf development and demography drives the tropical carbon cycle in regions that are not water limited and is not considered in current models. We compare our observations with output from 7 CO2 inversion transport models with assimilated meteorology and find that while 5 models reproduce the CO2 seasonal cycle all of them under predict the daily drawdown of CO2 by a factor of 3. This indicates that the CO2 flux partitioning between photosynthesis and respiration is incorrect

  6. Simulated annealing model of acupuncture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shang, Charles; Szu, Harold

    2015-05-01

    The growth control singularity model suggests that acupuncture points (acupoints) originate from organizers in embryogenesis. Organizers are singular points in growth control. Acupuncture can cause perturbation of a system with effects similar to simulated annealing. In clinical trial, the goal of a treatment is to relieve certain disorder which corresponds to reaching certain local optimum in simulated annealing. The self-organizing effect of the system is limited and related to the person's general health and age. Perturbation at acupoints can lead a stronger local excitation (analogous to higher annealing temperature) compared to perturbation at non-singular points (placebo control points). Such difference diminishes as the number of perturbed points increases due to the wider distribution of the limited self-organizing activity. This model explains the following facts from systematic reviews of acupuncture trials: 1. Properly chosen single acupoint treatment for certain disorder can lead to highly repeatable efficacy above placebo 2. When multiple acupoints are used, the result can be highly repeatable if the patients are relatively healthy and young but are usually mixed if the patients are old, frail and have multiple disorders at the same time as the number of local optima or comorbidities increases. 3. As number of acupoints used increases, the efficacy difference between sham and real acupuncture often diminishes. It predicted that the efficacy of acupuncture is negatively correlated to the disease chronicity, severity and patient's age. This is the first biological - physical model of acupuncture which can predict and guide clinical acupuncture research.

  7. Tropical precipitation extremes: Response to SST-induced warming in aquaplanet simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhattacharya, Ritthik; Bordoni, Simona; Teixeira, João.

    2017-04-01

    Scaling of tropical precipitation extremes in response to warming is studied in aquaplanet experiments using the global Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. We show how the scaling of precipitation extremes is highly sensitive to spatial and temporal averaging: while instantaneous grid point extreme precipitation scales more strongly than the percentage increase (˜7% K-1) predicted by the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) relationship, extremes for zonally and temporally averaged precipitation follow a slight sub-CC scaling, in agreement with results from Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) models. The scaling depends crucially on the employed convection parameterization. This is particularly true when grid point instantaneous extremes are considered. These results highlight how understanding the response of precipitation extremes to warming requires consideration of dynamic changes in addition to the thermodynamic response. Changes in grid-scale precipitation, unlike those in convective-scale precipitation, scale linearly with the resolved flow. Hence, dynamic changes include changes in both large-scale and convective-scale motions.

  8. Inter-model diversity of Arctic amplification caused by global warming and its relationship with the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone in CMIP5 climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yim, Bo Young; Yeh, Sang-Wook; Kug, Jong-Seong

    2017-06-01

    Surface-based Arctic amplification (AA) has experienced a remarkable increase in recent decades. Therefore, it is important to understand how Arctic warming might change in response to global warming. By analyzing the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) multi-model dataset, we examine how AA correlates with changes in tropical Pacific precipitation in response to global warming. It is found that that the changes in the latitudinal position of the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) are associated to the simulated AA strength in the CMIP5 climate models. Specifically, AA tends to be stronger (weaker) in models where the ITCZ shifts relatively more northward (southward). Further analysis indicates that the inter-model diversity of AA strength in the CMIP5 climate models is related to the changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation associated with the meridional shift of the ITCZ. These results emphasize a close relationship between AA and changes in tropical Pacific precipitation in response to global warming.

  9. How good are the simulations of tropical SST–rainfall relationship by ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The failure of atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) forced by prescribed SST to simulate and predict the interannual variability of Indian/Asian monsoon has been widely attributed to their inability to reproduce the actual sea surface temperature (SST)–rainfall relationship in the warm Indo-Pacific oceans.

  10. Impulse pumping modelling and simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pierre, B; Gudmundsson, J S

    2010-01-01

    Impulse pumping is a new pumping method based on propagation of pressure waves. Of particular interest is the application of impulse pumping to artificial lift situations, where fluid is transported from wellbore to wellhead using pressure waves generated at wellhead. The motor driven element of an impulse pumping apparatus is therefore located at wellhead and can be separated from the flowline. Thus operation and maintenance of an impulse pump are facilitated. The paper describes the different elements of an impulse pumping apparatus, reviews the physical principles and details the modelling of the novel pumping method. Results from numerical simulations of propagation of pressure waves in water-filled pipelines are then presented for illustrating impulse pumping physical principles, and validating the described modelling with experimental data.

  11. Bridging experiments, models and simulations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Carusi, Annamaria; Burrage, Kevin; Rodríguez, Blanca

    2012-01-01

    understanding of living organisms and also how they can reduce, replace, and refine animal experiments. A fundamental requirement to fulfill these expectations and achieve the full potential of computational physiology is a clear understanding of what models represent and how they can be validated. The present...... of biovariability; 2) testing and developing robust techniques and tools as a prerequisite to conducting physiological investigations; 3) defining and adopting standards to facilitate the interoperability of experiments, models, and simulations; 4) and understanding physiological validation as an iterative process...... that contributes to defining the specific aspects of cardiac electrophysiology the MSE system targets, rather than being only an external test, and that this is driven by advances in experimental and computational methods and the combination of both....

  12. The design and application of a radiological consequence model for tropical and subtropical regions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Domel, R.U.; Harris, F.F.; Crawford, J.

    1997-01-01

    The post Chernobyl era has seen the development of a plethora of radiological consequence models. At ANSTO, a model is being developed with a user-friendly interface which will assess the radiological consequences, after an incident, in tropical and sub-tropical climates. The model combines specific regional dispersion and deposition data to determine the dose to man via the major pathways of external and internal irradiation. The external irradiation data will need to include lifestyle information such as time spent L indoors/outdoors, the high/low activity times of the different groups of people (especially critical groups) and shielding factors for housing. The internal irradiation data requires food consumption values, effect of food processing and transfer parameters (soil to plant, plant to animal) to be obtained for tropical and sub-tropical regions. The model allows the user to specify the radionuclide of interest, the age of the person receiving l the dose, race, dietary components and lifestyle. The operator may use a number of default categories, but regional information may also be entered and incorporated into the radiological model allowing assessment of dose to critical groups using site specific data. Initially, the model will deal with the South East Asian region but flexibility has been incorporated into the design to allow application in other regions. A geographic information system is used for display of all input and output data allowing quick access to not only the results but also the underlying assumptions. The model also has portability across computer platforms. The model has been developed to provide a tool for directing future research, has application as a planing tool for emergency response operations but its priority lies in understanding the behaviour of radionuclides in the tropical and sub-tropical environments and their effect on humankind

  13. Earthworms and tree roots: A model study of the effect of preferential flow paths on runoff generation and groundwater recharge in steep, saprolitic, tropical lowland catchments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Yanyan; Ogden, Fred L.; Zhu, Jianting

    2017-07-01

    Preferential flow paths (PFPs) affect the hydrological response of humid tropical catchments but have not received sufficient attention. We consider PFPs created by tree roots and earthworms in a near-surface soil layer in steep, humid, tropical lowland catchments and hypothesize that observed hydrological behaviors can be better captured by reasonably considering PFPs in this layer. We test this hypothesis by evaluating the performance of four different physically based distributed model structures without and with PFPs in different configurations. Model structures are tested both quantitatively and qualitatively using hydrological, geophysical, and geochemical data both from the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute Agua Salud Project experimental catchment(s) in Central Panama and other sources in the literature. The performance of different model structures is evaluated using runoff Volume Error and three Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency measures against observed total runoff, stormflows, and base flows along with visual comparison of simulated and observed hydrographs. Two of the four proposed model structures which include both lateral and vertical PFPs are plausible, but the one with explicit simulation of PFPs performs the best. A small number of vertical PFPs that fully extend below the root zone allow the model to reasonably simulate deep groundwater recharge, which plays a crucial role in base flow generation. Results also show that the shallow lateral PFPs are the main contributor to the observed high flow characteristics. Their number and size distribution are found to be more important than the depth distribution. Our model results are corroborated by geochemical and geophysical observations.

  14. Modeling carbon stocks in a secondary tropical dry forest in the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhaohua Dai; Richard A. Birdsey; Kristofer D. Johnson; Juan Manuel Dupuy; Jose Luis Hernandez-Stefanoni; Karen. Richardson

    2014-01-01

    The carbon balance of secondary dry tropical forests of Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula is sensitive to human and natural disturbances and climate change. The spatially explicit process model Forest-DeNitrification-DeComposition (DNDC) was used to estimate forest carbon dynamics in this region, including the effects of disturbance on carbon stocks. Model evaluation using...

  15. Sensitivity of Tropical Cyclones to Parameterized Convection in the NASA GEOS5 Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, Young-Kwon; Schubert, Siegfried D.; Reale, Oreste; Lee, Myong-In; Molod, Andrea M.; Suarez, Max J.

    2014-01-01

    The sensitivity of tropical cyclones (TCs) to changes in parameterized convection is investigated to improve the simulation of TCs in the North Atlantic. Specifically, the impact of reducing the influence of the Relaxed Arakawa-Schubert (RAS) scheme-based parameterized convection is explored using the Goddard Earth Observing System version5 (GEOS5) model at 0.25 horizontal resolution. The years 2005 and 2006 characterized by very active and inactive hurricane seasons, respectively, are selected for simulation. A reduction in parameterized deep convection results in an increase in TC activity (e.g., TC number and longer life cycle) to more realistic levels compared to the baseline control configuration. The vertical and horizontal structure of the strongest simulated hurricane shows the maximum lower-level (850-950hPa) wind speed greater than 60 ms and the minimum sea level pressure reaching 940mb, corresponding to a category 4 hurricane - a category never achieved by the control configuration. The radius of the maximum wind of 50km, the location of the warm core exceeding 10 C, and the horizontal compactness of the hurricane center are all quite realistic without any negatively affecting the atmospheric mean state. This study reveals that an increase in the threshold of minimum entrainment suppresses parameterized deep convection by entraining more dry air into the typical plume. This leads to cooling and drying at the mid- to upper-troposphere, along with the positive latent heat flux and moistening in the lower-troposphere. The resulting increase in conditional instability provides an environment that is more conducive to TC vortex development and upward moisture flux convergence by dynamically resolved moist convection, thereby increasing TC activity.

  16. Tropical Cyclone Activity in the High-Resolution Community Earth System Model and the Impact of Ocean Coupling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Hui; Sriver, Ryan L.

    2018-01-01

    High-resolution Atmosphere General Circulation Models (AGCMs) are capable of directly simulating realistic tropical cyclone (TC) statistics, providing a promising approach for TC-climate studies. Active air-sea coupling in a coupled model framework is essential to capturing TC-ocean interactions, which can influence TC-climate connections on interannual to decadal time scales. Here we investigate how the choices of ocean coupling can affect the directly simulated TCs using high-resolution configurations of the Community Earth System Model (CESM). We performed a suite of high-resolution, multidecadal, global-scale CESM simulations in which the atmosphere (˜0.25° grid spacing) is configured with three different levels of ocean coupling: prescribed climatological sea surface temperature (SST) (ATM), mixed layer ocean (SLAB), and dynamic ocean (CPL). We find that different levels of ocean coupling can influence simulated TC frequency, geographical distributions, and storm intensity. ATM simulates more storms and higher overall storm intensity than the coupled simulations. It also simulates higher TC track density over the eastern Pacific and the North Atlantic, while TC tracks are relatively sparse within CPL and SLAB for these regions. Storm intensification and the maximum wind speed are sensitive to the representations of local surface flux feedbacks in different coupling configurations. Key differences in storm number and distribution can be attributed to variations in the modeled large-scale climate mean state and variability that arise from the combined effect of intrinsic model biases and air-sea interactions. Results help to improve our understanding about the representation of TCs in high-resolution coupled Earth system models, with important implications for TC-climate applications.

  17. Satellite altimetry and hydrologic modeling of poorly-gauged tropical watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sulistioadi, Yohanes Budi

    proves that satellite altimetry provides a good alternative or the only means in some regions to measure the water level of medium-sized river (200--800 m width) and small lake (extent less than 1000 km 2) in Southeast Asia humid tropic with reasonable accuracy. In addition, the procedure to choose retracked Envisat altimetry water level heights via identification or selection of over water waveform shapes is reliable; therefore this study concluded that the use of waveform shape selection procedure should be a standard measure in determining qualified range measurements especially over small rivers and lakes. This study also found that Ice-1 is not necessarily the best retracker as reported by previous studies, among the four standard waveform retracking algorithms for Envisat altimetry observing hydrologic bodies. The second study modeled the response of the poorly-gauged watershed in the Southeast Asia's humid tropic through the application of Hydrologic Engineering Center -- Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS). The performance evaluation of HEC-HMS discharge estimation confirms a good match between the simulated discharges with the observed ones. As the result of precipitation data analysis, this study found that Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) is the preferred input forcing for the model, given the thorough evaluation of its relationship with field-measured precipitation data prior to its use as primary climatic forcing. This research also proposes a novel approach to process the TRMM precipitation estimation spatially through Thiessen polygon and area average hybrid method, which model the spatial distribution of TRMM data to match the spatial location of field meteorological stations. Through a simultaneous validation that compares the water level anomaly transformed from HEC-HMS simulated discharge and satellite altimetry measurement, this study found that satellite altimetry measures water level anomaly

  18. A Statistical Model of Tropical Cyclone Tracks in the Western North Pacific with ENSO-Dependent Cyclogenesis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yonekura, Emmi; Hall, Timothy M.

    2011-01-01

    A new statistical model for western North Pacific Ocean tropical cyclone genesis and tracks is developed and applied to estimate regionally resolved tropical cyclone landfall rates along the coasts of the Asian mainland, Japan, and the Philippines. The model is constructed on International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) 1945-2007 historical data for the western North Pacific. The model is evaluated in several ways, including comparing the stochastic spread in simulated landfall rates with historic landfall rates. Although certain biases have been detected, overall the model performs well on the diagnostic tests, for example, reproducing well the geographic distribution of landfall rates. Western North Pacific cyclogenesis is influenced by El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This dependence is incorporated in the model s genesis component to project the ENSO-genesis dependence onto landfall rates. There is a pronounced shift southeastward in cyclogenesis and a small but significant reduction in basinwide annual counts with increasing ENSO index value. On almost all regions of coast, landfall rates are significantly higher in a negative ENSO state (La Nina).

  19. Distributed simulation a model driven engineering approach

    CERN Document Server

    Topçu, Okan; Oğuztüzün, Halit; Yilmaz, Levent

    2016-01-01

    Backed by substantive case studies, the novel approach to software engineering for distributed simulation outlined in this text demonstrates the potent synergies between model-driven techniques, simulation, intelligent agents, and computer systems development.

  20. Crowd Human Behavior for Modeling and Simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-08-06

    Crowd Human Behavior for Modeling and Simulation Elizabeth Mezzacappa, Ph.D. & Gordon Cooke, MEME Target Behavioral Response Laboratory, ARDEC...TYPE Conference Presentation 3. DATES COVERED 00-00-2008 to 00-00-2009 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Crowd Human Behavior for Modeling and Simulation...34understanding human behavior " and "model validation and verification" and will focus on modeling and simulation of crowds from a social scientist???s

  1. The design and application of a radiological consequence model for tropical and subtropical regions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Domel, R.U.; Harris, F.F.; Crawford, J.

    1998-01-01

    The post Chernobyl era has seen the development of a plethora of radiological consequence models. The information used in these models pertains mostly to temperate and cold climate data, with these data mostly being hard-wired into the body of the model. At the Australian Nuclear Science and Technology Organisation (ANSTO), a model is being developed with a user-friendly interface which will assess the radiological consequences, after an incident, in tropical and sub-tropical climates. The model combines specific regional data (South East Asia) with transfer parameters (soil to plant, plant to animal) obtained for tropical and sub-tropical regions. Flexibility has been incorporated into the the design of the model to allow application in other regions. Where the relevant data are not available, default temperate data are used whilst specific research will be initiated to determine the information required. A Geographic Information System (GIS) is used for the display of input and output data allowing quick access to not only the results but also to the underlying assumptions

  2. Simulation Model for DMEK Donor Preparation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mittal, Vikas; Mittal, Ruchi; Singh, Swati; Narang, Purvasha; Sridhar, Priti

    2018-04-09

    To demonstrate a simulation model for donor preparation in Descemet membrane endothelial keratoplasty (DMEK). The inner transparent membrane of the onion (Allium cepa) was used as a simulation model for human Descemet membrane (DM). Surgical video (see Video, Supplemental Digital Content 1, http://links.lww.com/ICO/A663) demonstrating all the steps was recorded. This model closely simulates human DM and helps DMEK surgeons learn the nuances of DM donor preparation steps with ease. The technique is repeatable, and the model is cost-effective. The described simulation model can assist surgeons and eye bank technicians to learn steps in donor preparation in DMEK.

  3. Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications

    CERN Document Server

    Filipe, Joaquim; Kacprzyk, Janusz; Pina, Nuno

    2014-01-01

    This book includes extended and revised versions of a set of selected papers from the 2012 International Conference on Simulation and Modeling Methodologies, Technologies and Applications (SIMULTECH 2012) which was sponsored by the Institute for Systems and Technologies of Information, Control and Communication (INSTICC) and held in Rome, Italy. SIMULTECH 2012 was technically co-sponsored by the Society for Modeling & Simulation International (SCS), GDR I3, Lionphant Simulation, Simulation Team and IFIP and held in cooperation with AIS Special Interest Group of Modeling and Simulation (AIS SIGMAS) and the Movimento Italiano Modellazione e Simulazione (MIMOS).

  4. An introduction to enterprise modeling and simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ostic, J.K.; Cannon, C.E. [Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States). Technology Modeling and Analysis Group

    1996-09-01

    As part of an ongoing effort to continuously improve productivity, quality, and efficiency of both industry and Department of Energy enterprises, Los Alamos National Laboratory is investigating various manufacturing and business enterprise simulation methods. A number of enterprise simulation software models are being developed to enable engineering analysis of enterprise activities. In this document the authors define the scope of enterprise modeling and simulation efforts, and review recent work in enterprise simulation at Los Alamos National Laboratory as well as at other industrial, academic, and research institutions. References of enterprise modeling and simulation methods and a glossary of enterprise-related terms are provided.

  5. Structured building model reduction toward parallel simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dobbs, Justin R. [Cornell University; Hencey, Brondon M. [Cornell University

    2013-08-26

    Building energy model reduction exchanges accuracy for improved simulation speed by reducing the number of dynamical equations. Parallel computing aims to improve simulation times without loss of accuracy but is poorly utilized by contemporary simulators and is inherently limited by inter-processor communication. This paper bridges these disparate techniques to implement efficient parallel building thermal simulation. We begin with a survey of three structured reduction approaches that compares their performance to a leading unstructured method. We then use structured model reduction to find thermal clusters in the building energy model and allocate processing resources. Experimental results demonstrate faster simulation and low error without any interprocessor communication.

  6. A stochastic, evolutionary model for range shifts and richness on tropical elevational gradients under Quaternary glacial cycles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colwell, Robert K; Rangel, Thiago F

    2010-11-27

    Quaternary glacial-interglacial cycles repeatedly forced thermal zones up and down the slopes of mountains, at all latitudes. Although no one doubts that these temperature cycles have left their signature on contemporary patterns of geography and phylogeny, the relative roles of ecology and evolution are not well understood, especially for the tropics. To explore key mechanisms and their interactions in the context of chance events, we constructed a geographical range-based, stochastic simulation model that incorporates speciation, anagenetic evolution, niche conservatism, range shifts and extinctions under late Quaternary temperature cycles along tropical elevational gradients. In the model, elevational patterns of species richness arise from the differential survival of founder lineages, consolidated by speciation and the inheritance of thermal niche characteristics. The model yields a surprisingly rich variety of realistic patterns of phylogeny and biogeography, including close matches to a variety of contemporary elevational richness profiles from an elevational transect in Costa Rica. Mountaintop extinctions during interglacials and lowland extinctions at glacial maxima favour mid-elevation lineages, especially under the constraints of niche conservatism. Asymmetry in temperature (greater duration of glacial than of interglacial episodes) and in lateral area (greater land area at low than at high elevations) have opposing effects on lowland extinctions and the elevational pattern of species richness in the model--and perhaps in nature, as well.

  7. Aboveground Biomass Modeling from Field and LiDAR Data in Brazilian Amazon Tropical Rain Forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva, C. A.; Hudak, A. T.; Vierling, L. A.; Keller, M. M.; Klauberg Silva, C. K.

    2015-12-01

    Tropical forests are an important component of global carbon stocks, but tropical forest responses to climate change are not sufficiently studied or understood. Among remote sensing technologies, airborne LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) may be best suited for quantifying tropical forest carbon stocks. Our objective was to estimate aboveground biomass (AGB) using airborne LiDAR and field plot data in Brazilian tropical rain forest. Forest attributes such as tree density, diameter at breast height, and heights were measured at a combination of square plots and linear transects (n=82) distributed across six different geographic zones in the Amazon. Using previously published allometric equations, tree AGB was computed and then summed to calculate total AGB at each sample plot. LiDAR-derived canopy structure metrics were also computed at each sample plot, and random forest regression modelling was applied to predict AGB from selected LiDAR metrics. The LiDAR-derived AGB model was assessed using the random forest explained variation, adjusted coefficient of determination (Adj. R²), root mean square error (RMSE, both absolute and relative) and BIAS (both absolute and relative). Our findings showed that the 99th percentile of height and height skewness were the best LiDAR metrics for AGB prediction. The AGB model using these two best predictors explained 59.59% of AGB variation, with an Adj. R² of 0.92, RMSE of 33.37 Mg/ha (20.28%), and bias of -0.69 (-0.42%). This study showed that LiDAR canopy structure metrics can be used to predict AGC stocks in Tropical Forest with acceptable precision and accuracy. Therefore, we conclude that there is good potential to monitor carbon sequestration in Brazilian Tropical Rain Forest using airborne LiDAR data, large field plots, and the random forest algorithm.

  8. Numerical modeling of storm surges in the coast of Mozambique: the cases of tropical cyclones Bonita (1996) and Lisette (1997)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bié, Alberto José; de Camargo, Ricardo; Mavume, Alberto Francisco; Harari, Joseph

    2017-11-01

    The coast of Mozambique is often affected by storms, particularly tropical cyclones during summer or sometimes midlatitude systems in the southern part. Storm surges combined with high freshwater discharge can drive huge coastal floods, affecting both urban and rural areas. To improve the knowledge about the impact of storm surges in the coast of Mozambique, this study presents the first attempt to model this phenomenon through the implementation of the Princeton Ocean Model (POM) in the Southwestern Indian Ocean domain (SWIO; 2-32°S, 28-85°E) using a regular grid with 1/6° of spatial resolution and 36 sigma levels. The simulation was performed for the period 1979-2010, and the most interesting events of surges were related to tropical cyclones Bonita (1996) and Lisette (1997) that occurred in the Mozambique Channel. The results showed that the model represented well the amplitude and phase of principal lunar and solar tidal constituents, as well as it captured the spatial pattern and magnitudes of SST with slight positive bias in summer and negative bias in winter months. In terms of SSH, the model underestimated the presence of mesoscale eddies, mainly in the Mozambique Channel. Our results also showed that the atmospheric sea level pressure had a significant contribution to storm heights during the landfall of the tropical cyclones Bonita (1996) and Lisette (1997) in the coast of Mozambique contributing with about 20 and 16% of the total surge height for each case, respectively, surpassing the contribution of the tide-surge nonlinear interactions by a factor of 2.

  9. Effects of modeled tropical sea surface temperature variability on coral reef bleaching predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Hooidonk, R.; Huber, M.

    2012-03-01

    Future widespread coral bleaching and subsequent mortality has been projected using sea surface temperature (SST) data derived from global, coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models (GCMs). While these models possess fidelity in reproducing many aspects of climate, they vary in their ability to correctly capture such parameters as the tropical ocean seasonal cycle and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability. Such weaknesses most likely reduce the accuracy of predicting coral bleaching, but little attention has been paid to the important issue of understanding potential errors and biases, the interaction of these biases with trends, and their propagation in predictions. To analyze the relative importance of various types of model errors and biases in predicting coral bleaching, various intra- and inter-annual frequency bands of observed SSTs were replaced with those frequencies from 24 GCMs 20th century simulations included in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 4th assessment report. Subsequent thermal stress was calculated and predictions of bleaching were made. These predictions were compared with observations of coral bleaching in the period 1982-2007 to calculate accuracy using an objective measure of forecast quality, the Peirce skill score (PSS). Major findings are that: (1) predictions are most sensitive to the seasonal cycle and inter-annual variability in the ENSO 24-60 months frequency band and (2) because models tend to understate the seasonal cycle at reef locations, they systematically underestimate future bleaching. The methodology we describe can be used to improve the accuracy of bleaching predictions by characterizing the errors and uncertainties involved in the predictions.

  10. A physiological production model for cacao : results of model simulations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zuidema, P.A.; Leffelaar, P.A.

    2002-01-01

    CASE2 is a physiological model for cocoa (Theobroma cacao L.) growth and yield. This report introduces the CAcao Simulation Engine for water-limited production in a non-technical way and presents simulation results obtained with the model.

  11. Intercomparison of temperature trends in IPCC CMIP5 simulations with observations, reanalyses and CMIP3 models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Xu

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available On the basis of the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5 and the climate model simulations covering 1979 through 2005, the temperature trends and their uncertainties have been examined to note the similarities or differences compared to the radiosonde observations, reanalyses and the third Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 simulations. The results show noticeable discrepancies for the estimated temperature trends in the four data groups (radiosonde, reanalysis, CMIP3 and CMIP5, although similarities can be observed. Compared to the CMIP3 model simulations, the simulations in some of the CMIP5 models were improved. The CMIP5 models displayed a negative temperature trend in the stratosphere closer to the strong negative trend seen in the observations. However, the positive tropospheric trend in the tropics is overestimated by the CMIP5 models relative to CMIP3 models. While some of the models produce temperature trend patterns more highly correlated with the observed patterns in CMIP5, the other models (such as CCSM4 and IPSL_CM5A-LR exhibit the reverse tendency. The CMIP5 temperature trend uncertainty was significantly reduced in most areas, especially in the Arctic and Antarctic stratosphere, compared to the CMIP3 simulations. Similar to the CMIP3, the CMIP5 simulations overestimated the tropospheric warming in the tropics and Southern Hemisphere and underestimated the stratospheric cooling. The crossover point where tropospheric warming changes into stratospheric cooling occurred near 100 hPa in the tropics, which is higher than in the radiosonde and reanalysis data. The result is likely related to the overestimation of convective activity over the tropical areas in both the CMIP3 and CMIP5 models. Generally, for the temperature trend estimates associated with the numerical models including the reanalyses and global climate models, the uncertainty in the stratosphere is much larger than that in the troposphere, and the

  12. Simulation modeling and analysis with Arena

    CERN Document Server

    Altiok, Tayfur

    2007-01-01

    Simulation Modeling and Analysis with Arena is a highly readable textbook which treats the essentials of the Monte Carlo discrete-event simulation methodology, and does so in the context of a popular Arena simulation environment.” It treats simulation modeling as an in-vitro laboratory that facilitates the understanding of complex systems and experimentation with what-if scenarios in order to estimate their performance metrics. The book contains chapters on the simulation modeling methodology and the underpinnings of discrete-event systems, as well as the relevant underlying probability, statistics, stochastic processes, input analysis, model validation and output analysis. All simulation-related concepts are illustrated in numerous Arena examples, encompassing production lines, manufacturing and inventory systems, transportation systems, and computer information systems in networked settings.· Introduces the concept of discrete event Monte Carlo simulation, the most commonly used methodology for modeli...

  13. Simulation of tropical tropospheric ozone variation from 1982 to 2010: The meteorological impact of two types of ENSO event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hou, Xuewei; Zhu, Bin; Fei, Dongdong; Zhu, Xiaoxin; Kang, Hanqing; Wang, Dongdong

    2016-08-01

    The effects of two types of ENSO events on tropical ozone (O3) variations from 1982 to 2010, and the mechanisms underlying these effects, were analyzed using observations and model simulations. Tropospheric column O3 anomalies (TCOA) during canonical El Niño were different from El Niño Modoki. Absolute TCOA values are larger during canonical El Niño than during El Niño Modoki in most regions. La Niña events were not separated into the different types because of their similarity in terms of sea surface temperature patterns. TCOA in La Niña showed a reversed dipole from canonical El Niño. During canonical El Niño, anomalous downward motion together with suppressed convection weakened O3 outflow from the troposphere, causing an increase in tropospheric O3 over western Pacific. Over central and eastern Pacific, decreased O3 concentrations resulted primarily from a change in net chemical production of O3. The change in net O3 chemical production relates to increased levels of HOx under wetter condition. During El Niño Modoki, transport and chemical fluxes were similar but weaker than during canonical El Niño. During La Niña, O3 anomalies and transport fluxes were the opposite of those during the El Niño Modoki. Stratospheric O3 played a key role in the development of O3 anomaly above 250 hPa during ENSO events, contributing >30% to the O3 anomalies. The change in free tropospheric O3 affected the O3 anomaly from 850 hPa to 200 hPa (60% of O3 anomaly). The contribution of O3 from planetary boundary layer was concentrated at the surface, with a contribution of <15%.

  14. Modelling the water balance of irrigated fields in tropical floodplain soils using Hydrus-1D

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beyene, Abebech; Frankl, Amaury; Verhoest, Niko E. C.; Tilahun, Seifu; Alamirew, Tena; Adgo, Enyew; Nyssen, Jan

    2017-04-01

    Accurate estimation of evaporation, transpiration and deep percolation is crucial in irrigated agriculture and the sustainable management of water resources. Here, the Hydrus-1D process-based numerical model was used to estimate the actual transpiration, soil evaporation and deep percolation from irrigated fields of floodplain soils. Field experiments were conducted from Dec 2015 to May 2016 in a small irrigation scheme (50 ha) called 'Shina' located in the Lake Tana floodplains of Ethiopia. Six experimental plots (three for onion and three for maize) were selected along a topographic transect to account for soil and groundwater variability. Irrigation amount (400 to 550 mm during the growing period) was measured using V-notches installed at each plot boundary and daily groundwater levels were measured manually from piezometers. There was no surface runoff observed in the growing period and rainfall was measured using a manual rain gauge. All daily weather data required for the evapotranspiration calculation using Pen Man Monteith equation were collected from a nearby metrological station. The soil profiles were described for each field to include the vertical soil heterogeneity in the soil water balance simulations. The soil texture, organic matter, bulk density, field capacity, wilting point and saturated moisture content were measured for all the soil horizons. Soil moisture monitoring at 30 and 60 cm depths was performed. The soil hydraulic parameters for each horizon was estimated using KNN pedotransfer functions for tropical soils and were effectively fitted using the RETC program (R2= 0.98±0.011) for initial prediction. A local sensitivity analysis was performed to select and optimize the most important hydraulic parameters for soil water flow in the unsaturated zone. The most sensitive parameters were saturated hydraulic conductivity (Ks), saturated moisture content (θs) and pore size distribution (n). Inverse modelling using Hydrus-1D further optimized

  15. Quantitative analyses and modelling to support achievement of the 2020 goals for nine neglected tropical diseases

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    T.D. Hollingsworth (T. Déirdre); E.R. Adams (Emily R.); R.M. Anderson (Roy); K. Atkins (Katherine); S. Bartsch (Sarah); M-G. Basáñez (María-Gloria); M. Behrend (Matthew); D.J. Blok (David); L.A.C. Chapman (Lloyd A. C.); L.E. Coffeng (Luc); O. Courtenay (Orin); R.E. Crump (Ron E.); S.J. de Vlas (Sake); A.P. Dobson (Andrew); L. Dyson (Louise); H. Farkas (Hajnal); A.P. Galvani (Alison P.); M. Gambhir (Manoj); D. Gurarie (David); M.A. Irvine (Michael A.); S. Jervis (Sarah); M.J. Keeling (Matt J.); L. Kelly-Hope (Louise); C. King (Charles); B.Y. Lee (Bruce Y.); E.A. le Rutte (Epke); T.M. Lietman (Thomas M.); M. Ndeffo-Mbah (Martial); G.F. Medley (Graham F.); E. Michael (Edwin); A. Pandey (Abhishek); J.K. Peterson (Jennifer K.); A. Pinsent (Amy); T.C. Porco (Travis C.); J.H. Richardus (Jan Hendrik); L. Reimer (Lisa); K.S. Rock (Kat S.); B.K. Singh (Brajendra K.); W.A. Stolk (Wilma); S. Swaminathan (Subramanian); S.J. Torr (Steve J.); J. Townsend (Jeffrey); J. Truscott (James); M. Walker (Martin); A. Zoueva (Alexandra)

    2015-01-01

    textabstractQuantitative analysis and mathematical models are useful tools in informing strategies to control or eliminate disease. Currently, there is an urgent need to develop these tools to inform policy to achieve the 2020 goals for neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). In this paper we give an

  16. Applying Climatically Associated Species Pools to modelling compositional change in tropical montane forests

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Golicher, J.D.; Cayuela, L.; Alkemade, J.R.M.; González-Espinosa, M.; Ramírez-Marcial, N.

    2008-01-01

    Aim Predictive species distribution modelling is a useful tool for extracting the maximum amount of information from biological collections and floristic inventories. However, in many tropical regions records are only available from a small number of sites. This can limit the application of

  17. Tropical Peatland water management modelling of the Air Hitam Laut catchment in Indonesia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wösten, H.; Hooijer, A.; Siderius, C.; Dira Satriadi Rais,; Aswandi Idris,; Rieley, J.

    2006-01-01

    Human induced land use change and associated fire alter profoundly the hydrology of tropical peatlands and thus affect the functioning of entire river catchments. The hydrological model SIMGRO was used to calculate the effects of drainage on peat water levels, peat surface morphology and river flows

  18. Tropical cyclone rainfall area controlled by relative sea surface temperature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Yanluan; Zhao, Ming; Zhang, Minghua

    2015-03-12

    Tropical cyclone rainfall rates have been projected to increase in a warmer climate. The area coverage of tropical cyclones influences their impact on human lives, yet little is known about how tropical cyclone rainfall area will change in the future. Here, using satellite data and global atmospheric model simulations, we show that tropical cyclone rainfall area is controlled primarily by its environmental sea surface temperature (SST) relative to the tropical mean SST (that is, the relative SST), while rainfall rate increases with increasing absolute SST. Our result is consistent with previous numerical simulations that indicated tight relationships between tropical cyclone size and mid-tropospheric relative humidity. Global statistics of tropical cyclone rainfall area are not expected to change markedly under a warmer climate provided that SST change is relatively uniform, implying that increases in total rainfall will be confined to similar size domains with higher rainfall rates.

  19. Does internal variability change in response to global warming? A large ensemble modelling study of tropical rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milinski, S.; Bader, J.; Jungclaus, J. H.; Marotzke, J.

    2017-12-01

    There is some consensus on mean state changes of rainfall under global warming; changes of the internal variability, on the other hand, are more difficult to analyse and have not been discussed as much despite their importance for understanding changes in extreme events, such as droughts or floodings. We analyse changes in the rainfall variability in the tropical Atlantic region. We use a 100-member ensemble of historical (1850-2005) model simulations with the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Earth System Model (MPI-ESM1) to identify changes of internal rainfall variability. To investigate the effects of global warming on the internal variability, we employ an additional ensemble of model simulations with stronger external forcing (1% CO2-increase per year, same integration length as the historical simulations) with 68 ensemble members. The focus of our study is on the oceanic Atlantic ITCZ. We find that the internal variability of rainfall over the tropical Atlantic does change due to global warming and that these changes in variability are larger than changes in the mean state in some regions. From splitting the total variance into patterns of variability, we see that the variability on the southern flank of the ITCZ becomes more dominant, i.e. explaining a larger fraction of the total variance in a warmer climate. In agreement with previous studies, we find that changes in the mean state show an increase and narrowing of the ITCZ. The large ensembles allow us to do a statistically robust differentiation between the changes in variability that can be explained by internal variability and those that can be attributed to the external forcing. Furthermore, we argue that internal variability in a transient climate is only well defined in the ensemble domain and not in the temporal domain, which requires the use of a large ensemble.

  20. Modelling and simulation of a heat exchanger

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xia, Lei; Deabreu-Garcia, J. Alex; Hartley, Tom T.

    1991-01-01

    Two models for two different control systems are developed for a parallel heat exchanger. First by spatially lumping a heat exchanger model, a good approximate model which has a high system order is produced. Model reduction techniques are applied to these to obtain low order models that are suitable for dynamic analysis and control design. The simulation method is discussed to ensure a valid simulation result.

  1. High-resolution boreal winter precipitation projections over tropical America from CMIP5 models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palomino-Lemus, Reiner; Córdoba-Machado, Samir; Gámiz-Fortis, Sonia Raquel; Castro-Díez, Yolanda; Esteban-Parra, María Jesús

    2017-11-01

    Climate-change projections for boreal winter precipitation in Tropical America has been addressed by statistical downscaling (SD) using the principal component regression with sea-level pressure (SLP) as the predictor variable. The SD model developed from the reanalysis of SLP and gridded precipitation GPCC data, has been applied to SLP outputs from 20 CGMS of CMIP5, both from the present climate (1971-2000) and for the future (2071-2100) under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios. The SD model shows a suitable performance over large regions, presenting a strong bias only in small areas characterized by very dry climate conditions or poor data coverage. The difference in percentage between the projected SD precipitation and the simulated SD precipitation for present climate, ranges from moderate to intense changes in rainfall (positive or negative, depending on the region and the SD GCM model considered), as the radiative forcing increases from the RCP2.6 to RCP8.5. The disparity in the GCMs outputs seems to be the major source of uncertainty in the projected changes, while the scenario considered appears less decisive. Mexico and eastern Brazil are the areas showing the most coherent decreases between SD GCMs, while northwestern and southeastern South America show consistently significant increases. This coherence is corroborated by the results of the ensemble mean which projects positive changes from 10°N towards the south, with exceptions such as eastern Brazil, northern Chile and some smaller areas, such as the center of Colombia, while projected negative changes are the majority found in the northernmost part.

  2. The Impact of Tropical Recirculation on Polar Composition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strahan, S. E.; Schoeberl, M. R.; Steenrod, S. D.

    2009-01-01

    We derive the tropical modal age of air from an analysis of the water vapor tape recorder. We combine the observationally derived modal age with mean age of air from CO2 and SF6 to create diagnostics for the independent evaluation of the vertical transport rate and horizontal recirculation into the tropics between 16-32 km. These diagnostics are applied to two Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) chemistry and transport model (CTM) age tracer simulations to give new insights into the tropical transport characteristics of the meteorological fields from the GEOS4-GCM and the GEOS4-DAS. Both simulations are found to have modal ages that are in reasonable agreement with the empirically derived age (i.e ., transit times) over the entire altitude range. Both simulations show too little horizontal recirculation into the tropics above 22 km, with the GEOS4-DAS fields having greater recirculation. Using CH4 as a proxy for mean age, comparisons between HALOE and model CH4 in the Antarctic demonstrate how the strength of tropical recirculation affects polar composition in both CTM experiments. Better tropical recirculation tends to improve the CH4 simulation in the Antarctic. However, mean age in the Antarctic lower stratosphere can be compromised by poor representation of tropical ascent, tropical recirculation, or vortex barrier strength. The connection between polar and tropical composition shown in this study demonstrates the importance of diagnosing each of these processes separately in order to verify the adequate representation of the processes contributing to polar composition in models.

  3. The transparency, reliability and utility of tropical rainforest land-use and land-cover change models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosa, Isabel M D; Ahmed, Sadia E; Ewers, Robert M

    2014-06-01

    Land-use and land-cover (LULC) change is one of the largest drivers of biodiversity loss and carbon emissions globally. We use the tropical rainforests of the Amazon, the Congo basin and South-East Asia as a case study to investigate spatial predictive models of LULC change. Current predictions differ in their modelling approaches, are highly variable and often poorly validated. We carried out a quantitative review of 48 modelling methodologies, considering model spatio-temporal scales, inputs, calibration and validation methods. In addition, we requested model outputs from each of the models reviewed and carried out a quantitative assessment of model performance for tropical LULC predictions in the Brazilian Amazon. We highlight existing shortfalls in the discipline and uncover three key points that need addressing to improve the transparency, reliability and utility of tropical LULC change models: (1) a lack of openness with regard to describing and making available the model inputs and model code; (2) the difficulties of conducting appropriate model validations; and (3) the difficulty that users of tropical LULC models face in obtaining the model predictions to help inform their own analyses and policy decisions. We further draw comparisons between tropical LULC change models in the tropics and the modelling approaches and paradigms in other disciplines, and suggest that recent changes in the climate change and species distribution modelling communities may provide a pathway that tropical LULC change modellers may emulate to further improve the discipline. Climate change models have exerted considerable influence over public perceptions of climate change and now impact policy decisions at all political levels. We suggest that tropical LULC change models have an equally high potential to influence public opinion and impact the development of land-use policies based on plausible future scenarios, but, to do that reliably may require further improvements in the

  4. Carbon budget of tropical forests in Southeast Asia and the effects of deforestation: an approach using a process-based model and field measurements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Adachi

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available More reliable estimates of the carbon (C stock within forest ecosystems and C emission induced by deforestation are urgently needed to mitigate the effects of emissions on climate change. A process-based terrestrial biogeochemical model (VISIT was applied to tropical primary forests of two types (a seasonal dry forest in Thailand and a rainforest in Malaysia and one agro-forest (an oil palm plantation in Malaysia to estimate the C budget of tropical ecosystems in Southeast Asia, including the impacts of land-use conversion. The observed aboveground biomass in the seasonal dry tropical forest in Thailand (226.3 t C ha−1 and the rainforest in Malaysia (201.5 t C ha−1 indicate that tropical forests of Southeast Asia are among the most C-abundant ecosystems in the world. The model simulation results in rainforests were consistent with field data, except for the NEP, however, the VISIT model tended to underestimate C budget and stock in the seasonal dry tropical forest. The gross primary production (GPP based on field observations ranged from 32.0 to 39.6 t C ha−1 yr−1 in the two primary forests, whereas the model slightly underestimated GPP (26.5–34.5 t C ha−1 yr−1. The VISIT model appropriately captured the impacts of disturbances such as deforestation and land-use conversions on the C budget. Results of sensitivity analysis showed that the proportion of remaining residual debris was a key parameter determining the soil C budget after the deforestation event. According to the model simulation, the total C stock (total biomass and soil C of the oil palm plantation was about 35% of the rainforest's C stock at 30 yr following initiation of the plantation. However, there were few field data of C budget and stock, especially in oil palm plantation. The C budget of each ecosystem must be evaluated over the long term using both the model simulations and observations to

  5. Comparison between the Community Land Model and the Terra Urb model in COSMO 5.0 over tropical Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brousse, Oscar; Wouters, Hendrik; Thiery, Wim; Demuzere, Matthias; Van Lipzig, Nicole

    2017-04-01

    African urban inhabitants are expected to rise up to 75% of the continent's population at the horizon of 2050 (United Nations, 2014). This unprecedented demographic rise has led to an uncontrolled urbanization, and hence to a lack of public health infrastructures and administration within African cities. During the past decades, as an example, malaria's mitigating infrastructures have been constructed without considering the impact of urbanization. Indexes of malaria's risks have been based on rural areas, driving huge biases by not taking into account characteristics of the urban environment. In response to this challenge, the REACT project sets out to develop an index for malaria risk in urban tropical Africa. In particular, we aim to create two indexes that apply to the regional and local scale, respectively. Especially, intra-urban variability of the near-surface climate and the malaria's epidemiology thus needs to be described. To start, we first conduct a series of sensitivity simulations over a one-year period to determine which Land Surface Model (LSM) implemented within COSMO 5.0 is most suited for the purpose of this research. The model domain will cover the Lake Victoria area, integrating Kampala within its boundaries. The regional climate is considered as tropical and interactions between Lake Victoria and its surroundings have been proven (Thiery et al., 2015; 2016). Since malaria depends on typical meteorological and climatic factors such as precipitation, relative humidity, wind speed and temperature, the first part of the project aims at finding which of the LSMs able to assess the more conveniently those epidemiological drivers. Indeed, the results of those runs will serve both the scales for inter- and intra-urban analysis (through a downscaling approach) and hence need to be as detailed as possible. The coupling of COSMO-CLM with the Community Land Model (COSMO-CLM2; Davin and Seneviratne, 2012) is known to have a better integration of vegetation

  6. VHDL simulation with access to transistor models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gibson, J.

    1991-01-01

    Hardware description languages such as VHDL have evolved to aid in the design of systems with large numbers of elements and a wide range of electronic and logical abstractions. For high performance circuits, behavioral models may not be able to efficiently include enough detail to give designers confidence in a simulation's accuracy. One option is to provide a link between the VHDL environment and a transistor level simulation environment. The coupling of the Vantage Analysis Systems VHDL simulator and the NOVA simulator provides the combination of VHDL modeling and transistor modeling.

  7. The tropical water and energy cycles in a cumulus ensemble model. Part 1: Equilibrium climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sui, C. H.; Lau, K. M.; Tao, W. K.; Simpson, J.

    1994-01-01

    A cumulus ensemble model is used to study the tropical water and energy cycles and their role in the climate system. The model includes cloud dynamics, radiative processes, and microphysics that incorporate all important production and conversion processes among water vapor and five species of hydrometeors. Radiative transfer in clouds is parameterized based on cloud contents and size distributions of each bulk hydrometeor. Several model integrations have been carried out under a variety of imposed boundary and large-scale conditions. In Part 1 of this paper, the primary focus is on the water and heat budgets of the control experiment, which is designed to simulate the convective - radiative equilibrium response of the model to an imposed vertical velocity and a fixed sea surface temperature at 28 C. The simulated atmosphere is conditionally unstable below the freezing level and close to neutral above the freezing level. The equilibrium water budget shows that the total moisture source, M(sub s), which is contributed by surface evaporation (0.24 M(sub s)) and the large-scale advection (0.76 M(sub s)), all converts to mean surface precipitation bar-P(sub s). Most of M(sub s) is transported verticaly in convective regions where much of the condensate is generated and falls to surface (0.68 bar-P(sub s)). The remaining condensate detrains at a rate of 0.48 bar-P(sub s) and constitutes 65% of the source for stratiform clouds above the melting level. The upper-level stratiform cloud dissipates into clear environment at a rate of 0.14 bar-P(sub s), which is a significant moisture source comparable to the detrained water vapor (0.15 bar-P(sub s)) to the upper troposphere from convective clouds. In the lower troposphere, stratiform clouds evaporate at a rate of 0.41 bar-P(sub s), which is a more dominant moisture source than surface evaporation (0.22 bar-P(sub s)). The precipitation falling to the surface in the stratiform region is about 0.32 bar-P(sub s). The associated

  8. Policy advice derived from simulation models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brenner, T.; Werker, C.

    2009-01-01

    When advising policy we face the fundamental problem that economic processes are connected with uncertainty and thus policy can err. In this paper we show how the use of simulation models can reduce policy errors. We suggest that policy is best based on socalled abductive simulation models, which

  9. Development of a Multi-Model Ensemble Scheme for the Tropical Cyclone Forecast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jun, S.; Lee, W. J.; Kang, K.; Shin, D. H.

    2015-12-01

    A Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) prediction scheme using selected and weighted method was developed and evaluated for tropical cyclone forecast. The analyzed tropical cyclone track and intensity data set provided by Korea Meteorological Administration and 11 numerical model outputs - GDAPS, GEPS, GFS (data resolution; 50 and 100 km), GFES, HWRF, IFS(data resolution; 50 and 100 km), IFS EPS, JGSM, and TEPS - during 2011-2014 were used for this study. The procedure suggested in this study was divided into two stages: selecting and weighting process. First several numerical models were chosen based on the past model's performances in the selecting stage. Next, weights, referred to as regression coefficients, for each model forecasts were calculated by applying the linear and nonlinear regression technique to past model forecast data in the weighting stage. Finally, tropical cyclone forecasts were determined by using both selected and weighted multi-model values at that forecast time. The preliminary result showed that selected MME's improvement rate (%) was more than 5% comparing with non-selected MME at 72 h track forecast.

  10. Model Validation for Simulations of Vehicle Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-08-01

    jackknife”, Annals of Statistics, 7:1-26, 1979. [45] B. Efron and G. Gong, “A leisurely look at the bootstrap, the jackknife, and cross-validation”, The...battery model developed in the Automotive Research Center, a US Army Center of Excellence for modeling and simulation of ground vehicle systems...Sandia National Laboratories and a battery model developed in the Automotive Research Center, a US Army Center of Excellence for modeling and simulation

  11. Transient Modeling and Simulation of Compact Photobioreactors

    OpenAIRE

    Ribeiro, Robert Luis Lara; Mariano, André Bellin; Souza, Jeferson Avila; Vargas, Jose Viriato Coelho

    2008-01-01

    In this paper, a mathematical model is developed to make possible the simulation of microalgae growth and its dependency on medium temperature and light intensity. The model is utilized to simulate a compact photobioreactor response in time with physicochemical parameters of the microalgae Phaeodactylum tricornutum. The model allows for the prediction of the transient and local evolution of the biomass concentration in the photobioreactor with low computational time. As a result, the model is...

  12. Tropical cyclone sensitivity to ocean coupling in the ECMWF coupled model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mogensen, Kristian S.; Magnusson, Linus; Bidlot, Jean-Raymond

    2017-05-01

    We present an investigation of the performance of the ECMWF coupled atmosphere-waves-ocean model for different ocean and atmosphere resolutions on a series of tropical cyclones in the Western Pacific with the aim to better understand the coupled feedback mechanisms in these extreme conditions. For some of the test cases, we only find little impact of coupling the atmosphere to the ocean, while in others, we observe a very large impact. To further understand these differences, we have selected two tropical cyclones (TCs) as case studies: TC Haiyan (with small impact of coupling) and TC Neoguri (with large impact of coupling). The comparison between these two cases suggests that the upper ocean stratification is the key in determining the strength of the coupled feedback. A strong coupled feedback is found whenever the ocean heat content of the upper layer is low while a very weak coupled feedback is found whenever the ocean has a thick warm mixed layer. The oceanographic response to tropical cyclones for the two storms has been compared to sea surface temperature and derived surface currents from drifting buoys and to subsurface observations from Argo and ship launched XBT's. These comparisons show that we are able to realistically reproduce the atmospheric and oceanographic interaction during tropical cyclone conditions which gives us confidence that the coupled modeling system is physically sound.

  13. Studies of climate dynamics with innovative global-model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Xiaoming

    . Motivated by the fact that natural variability of the atmosphere could obscure the signal of anthropogenic warming on time scales of years to decades, the large scale variability of the atmosphere is also studied. Analysis using simulations in the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble project reveals that the Northern Annular Mode (NAM) does not have a stable spatial pattern when 50-year long segments of data are used to calculate it. Some segments of data result in NAM-like variability with a very strong North Pacific center of action, while in some others it exhibits a more symmetric structure, with North Pacific and Euro-Atlantic centers of comparable strength. Perhaps somewhat puzzling, the NAM's North Pacific center of action is found to have a strengthening trend under anthropogenic warming. Lastly, the large-scale character of an atmosphere in rotating Radiative-Convective Equilibrium (RCE) is studied, using a global atmospheric model with prescribed globally uniform sea surface temperature and no insolation. In such an equilibrium state, numerous tropical cyclone-like vortices develop in the extratropics, which move slowly poleward and westward. The typical spacing of simulated tropical cyclone-like vortices is comparable to the Rossby radius of deformation, while the production of available potential energy is at a scale slightly smaller than that of the vortices. It is hypothesized that the growth of tropical cyclone-like vortices is driven by the self-aggregation of convection, while baroclinic instability destabilizes any vortices that grow significantly larger than the deformation radius. A weak Hadley circulation dominates in the deep tropics, and an eastward-propagating wavenumber one MJO-like mode with a period of 30 to 40 days develops along the equator.

  14. Specific and generic stem biomass and volume models of tree species in a West African tropical semi-deciduous forest

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Goussanou, Cédric A.; Guendehou, Sabin; Assogbadjo, Achille E.

    2016-01-01

    The quantification of the contribution of tropical forests to global carbon stocks and climate change mitigation requires availability of data and tools such as allometric equations. This study made available volume and biomass models for eighteen tree species in a semi-deciduous tropical forest...... enabled to conclude that the non-destructive sampling was a good approach to determining reliable basic wood density. The comparative analysis of species-specific models in this study with selected generic models for tropical forests indicated low probability to identify effective generic models with good...

  15. Constant diurnal temperature regime alters the impact of simulated climate warming on a tropical pseudoscorpion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeh, Jeanne A; Bonilla, Melvin M; Su, Eleanor J; Padua, Michael V; Anderson, Rachel V; Zeh, David W

    2014-01-15

    Recent theory suggests that global warming may be catastrophic for tropical ectotherms. Although most studies addressing temperature effects in ectotherms utilize constant temperatures, Jensen's inequality and thermal stress considerations predict that this approach will underestimate warming effects on species experiencing daily temperature fluctuations in nature. Here, we tested this prediction in a neotropical pseudoscorpion. Nymphs were reared in control and high-temperature treatments under a constant daily temperature regime, and results compared to a companion fluctuating-temperature study. At constant temperature, pseudoscorpions outperformed their fluctuating-temperature counterparts. Individuals were larger, developed faster, and males produced more sperm, and females more embryos. The greatest impact of temperature regime involved short-term, adult exposure, with constant temperature mitigating high-temperature effects on reproductive traits. Our findings demonstrate the importance of realistic temperature regimes in climate warming studies, and suggest that exploitation of microhabitats that dampen temperature oscillations may be critical in avoiding extinction as tropical climates warm.

  16. Whole-building Hygrothermal Simulation Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rode, Carsten; Grau, Karl

    2003-01-01

    An existing integrated simulation tool for dynamic thermal simulation of building was extended with a transient model for moisture release and uptake in building materials. Validation of the new model was begun with comparison against measurements in an outdoor test cell furnished with single...... materials. Almost quasi-steady, cyclic experiments were used to compare the indoor humidity variation and the numerical results of the integrated simulation tool with the new moisture model. Except for the case with chipboard as furnishing, the predictions of indoor humidity with the detailed model were...

  17. Improving predictions of tropical forest response to climate change through integration of field studies and ecosystem modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Xiaohui; Uriarte, María; González, Grizelle; Reed, Sasha C.; Thompson, Jill; Zimmerman, Jess K.; Murphy, Lora

    2018-01-01

    Tropical forests play a critical role in carbon and water cycles at a global scale. Rapid climate change is anticipated in tropical regions over the coming decades and, under a warmer and drier climate, tropical forests are likely to be net sources of carbon rather than sinks. However, our understanding of tropical forest response and feedback to climate change is very limited. Efforts to model climate change impacts on carbon fluxes in tropical forests have not reached a consensus. Here we use the Ecosystem Demography model (ED2) to predict carbon fluxes of a Puerto Rican tropical forest under realistic climate change scenarios. We parameterized ED2 with species-specific tree physiological data using the Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer workflow and projected the fate of this ecosystem under five future climate scenarios. The model successfully captured inter-annual variability in the dynamics of this tropical forest. Model predictions closely followed observed values across a wide range of metrics including above-ground biomass, tree diameter growth, tree size class distributions, and leaf area index. Under a future warming and drying climate scenario, the model predicted reductions in carbon storage and tree growth, together with large shifts in forest community composition and structure. Such rapid changes in climate led the forest to transition from a sink to a source of carbon. Growth respiration and root allocation parameters were responsible for the highest fraction of predictive uncertainty in modeled biomass, highlighting the need to target these processes in future data collection. Our study is the first effort to rely on Bayesian model calibration and synthesis to elucidate the key physiological parameters that drive uncertainty in tropical forests responses to climatic change. We propose a new path forward for model-data synthesis that can substantially reduce uncertainty in our ability to model tropical forest responses to future climate.

  18. The CFD Simulation on Thermal Comfort in a library Building in the Tropics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yau, Y. H.; Ghazali, N. N. N.; Badarudin, A.; Goh, F. C.

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents a three-dimensional analysis for thermal comfort in a library. The room model includes library layout, equipment and peripheral positions as well as the positions of inlet and outlet air for IAQ controls. Cold clean air is supplied to the room through ceiling-mounted air grilles and exhausted through air grilles situated on the same ceiling. A commercial CFD package was used in this study to achieve solutions of the distribution of airflow velocity and temperature. Using high quality meshes is vital to the overall accuracy of the results. Simulation results show a good agreement with experimental data from the literature. This study has thoroughly analysed the indoor thermal conditions and airflow characteristics of the building. In addition, verification of the CFD program with experimental data showed that the program can provide reasonable and reliable predictions on thermal comfort performance with the help of precise boundary conditions.

  19. Simulation modeling for the health care manager.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kennedy, Michael H

    2009-01-01

    This article addresses the use of simulation software to solve administrative problems faced by health care managers. Spreadsheet add-ins, process simulation software, and discrete event simulation software are available at a range of costs and complexity. All use the Monte Carlo method to realistically integrate probability distributions into models of the health care environment. Problems typically addressed by health care simulation modeling are facility planning, resource allocation, staffing, patient flow and wait time, routing and transportation, supply chain management, and process improvement.

  20. Modeling and simulation of blood collection systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alfonso, Edgar; Xie, Xiaolan; Augusto, Vincent; Garraud, Olivier

    2012-03-01

    This paper addresses the modeling and simulation of blood collection systems in France for both fixed site and mobile blood collection with walk in whole blood donors and scheduled plasma and platelet donors. Petri net models are first proposed to precisely describe different blood collection processes, donor behaviors, their material/human resource requirements and relevant regulations. Petri net models are then enriched with quantitative modeling of donor arrivals, donor behaviors, activity times and resource capacity. Relevant performance indicators are defined. The resulting simulation models can be straightforwardly implemented with any simulation language. Numerical experiments are performed to show how the simulation models can be used to select, for different walk in donor arrival patterns, appropriate human resource planning and donor appointment strategies.

  1. Dynamical system analysis of a low-order tropical cyclone model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daria Schönemann

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Tropical cyclone dynamics is investigated by means of a conceptual box model. The tropical cyclone (TC is divided into three regions, the eye, eyewall and ambient region. The model forms a low-order dynamical system of three ordinary differential equations. These are based on entropy budget equations comprising processes of surface enthalpy transfer, entropy advection, convection and radiative cooling. For tropical ocean parameter settings, the system possesses four non-trivial steady state solutions when the sea surface temperature (SST is above a critical value. Two steady states are unstable while the two remaining states are stable. Bifurcation diagrams provide an explanation why only finite-amplitude perturbations above a critical SST can transform into TCs. Besides SST, relative humidity of the ambient region forms an important model parameter. The surfaces that describe equilibria as a function of SST and relative humidity reveal a cusp-catastrophe where the two non-trivial equilibria split into four. Within the model regime of four equilibria, cyclogenesis becomes very unlikely due to the repelling and attracting effects of the two additional equilibria. The results are in qualitative agreement with observations and evince the relevance of the simple model approach to the dynamics of TC formation and its maximum potential intensity.

  2. Improving simulated spatial distribution of productivity and biomass in Amazon forests using the ACME land model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, X.; Thornton, P. E.; Ricciuto, D. M.; Shi, X.; Xu, M.; Hoffman, F. M.; Norby, R. J.

    2017-12-01

    Tropical forests play a crucial role in the global carbon cycle, accounting for one third of the global NPP and containing about 25% of global vegetation biomass and soil carbon. This is particularly true for tropical forests in the Amazon region, as it comprises approximately 50% of the world's tropical forests. It is therefore important for us to understand and represent the processes that determine the fluxes and storage of carbon in these forests. In this study, we show that the implementation of phosphorus (P) cycle and P limitation in the ACME Land Model (ALM) improves simulated spatial pattern of NPP. The P-enabled ALM is able to capture the west-to-east gradient of productivity, consistent with field observations. We also show that by improving the representation of mortality processes, ALM is able to reproduce the observed spatial pattern of above ground biomass across the Amazon region.

  3. Ecohydrological modeling of a tropical tidal catchment exposed to anthropogenic pressure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lorenz, Malte; Zeunert, Stephanie; Meon, Günter

    2016-04-01

    situation, meaningful results for discharge, concentration and nutrient load calibration could be achieved. A sensitivity analysis demonstrated that the water quality processes of nitrogen are dominated by terrestrial transformation processes. The developed model is able to simulate the characteristic dynamics of mineralization, which are typically observed in the humid tropics. Beside the implemented "Availability and Demand Approach", which is accounting for a temporary storage of nutrients in the microbial biomass, the implemented moisture functions are of particular importance. The consideration of sediment compartments and processes related to periphyton activity were key components in the water quality modeling of the catchment. The calibrated model was utilized to identify pollution sources and hot spots in the estuary and in the catchment. Furthermore, tracer simulations showed that the upper part of the estuary is more vulnerable to pollution then the lower part. This confirms the findings of the monitoring. In addition, predictions for water quality in response to anthropogenic changes regarding population, land use and industrial development were carried out with the coupled modeling system. Results of these scenarios are presented.

  4. Modeling and Simulation of Matrix Converter

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liu, Fu-rong; Klumpner, Christian; Blaabjerg, Frede

    2005-01-01

    This paper discusses the modeling and simulation of matrix converter. Two models of matrix converter are presented: one is based on indirect space vector modulation and the other is based on power balance equation. The basis of these two models is• given and the process on modeling is introduced...

  5. Evaluation of a Heuristic Model for Tropical Cyclone Resilience

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-01-26

    linear 9 primitive equation model described in RMG04, modified here to include a 10 parameterization of diabatic heating. The model assumes a stably...10) 3 Note that Eq. (10) does not explicitly contain the PV source term derived from the 4 diabatic heating in the system (1)-(3). In the...dynamics of the vortex-shear interaction determines regions 12 favored for ascent. Diabatic heating is then organized within the envelope of upward 13

  6. Physically realistic modeling of maritime training simulation

    OpenAIRE

    Cieutat , Jean-Marc

    2003-01-01

    Maritime training simulation is an important matter of maritime teaching, which requires a lot of scientific and technical skills.In this framework, where the real time constraint has to be maintained, all physical phenomena cannot be studied; the most visual physical phenomena relating to the natural elements and the ship behaviour are reproduced only. Our swell model, based on a surface wave simulation approach, permits to simulate the shape and the propagation of a regular train of waves f...

  7. Systematic modelling and simulation of refrigeration systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Bjarne D.; Jakobsen, Arne

    1998-01-01

    The task of developing a simulation model of a refrigeration system can be very difficult and time consuming. In order for this process to be effective, a systematic method for developing the system model is required. This method should aim at guiding the developer to clarify the purpose of the s......The task of developing a simulation model of a refrigeration system can be very difficult and time consuming. In order for this process to be effective, a systematic method for developing the system model is required. This method should aim at guiding the developer to clarify the purpose...... of the simulation, to select appropriate component models and to set up the equations in a well-arranged way. In this paper the outline of such a method is proposed and examples showing the use of this method for simulation of refrigeration systems are given....

  8. PV (photovoltaics) performance evaluation and simulation-based energy yield prediction for tropical buildings

    OpenAIRE

    Saber, EM; Lee, SE; Manthapuri, S; Yi, W; Deb, C

    2014-01-01

    Air pollution and climate change increased the importance of renewable energy resources like solar energy in the last decades. Rack-mounted PhotoVoltaics (PV) and Building Integrated PhotoVoltaics (BIPV) are the most common photovoltaic systems which convert incident solar radiation on façade or surrounding area to electricity. In this paper the performance of different solar cell types is evaluated for the tropical weather of Singapore. As a case study, on-site measured data of PV systems im...

  9. Genomics approaches to unlock the high yield potential of cassava, a tropical model plant

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shengkui ZHANG,Ping'an MA,Haiyan WANG,Cheng LU,Xin CHEN,Zhiqiang XIA,Meiling ZOU,Xinchen ZHOU,Wenquan WANG

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Cassava, a tropical food, feed and biofuel crop, has great capacity for biomass accumulation and an extraordinary efficiency in water use and mineral nutrition, which makes it highly suitable as a model plant for tropical crops. However, the understanding of the metabolism and genomics of this important crop is limited. The recent breakthroughs in the genomics of cassava, including whole-genome sequencing and transcriptome analysis, as well as advances in the biology of photosynthesis, starch biosynthesis, adaptation to drought and high temperature, and resistance to virus and bacterial diseases, are reviewed here. Many of the new developments have come from comparative analyses between a wild ancestor and existing cultivars. Finally, the current challenges and future potential of cassava as a model plant are discussed.

  10. The impact of lianas on the carbon cycle of tropical forests: a modeling study using the Ecosystem Demography model

    Science.gov (United States)

    di Porcia e Brugnera, M.; Longo, M.; Verbeek, H.

    2017-12-01

    Lianas are an important component of tropical forests, constituting up to 40% of the woody stems and about 35% of the woody species. Tropical forests have been experiencing large-scale structural changes, including an increase in liana abundance and biomass. This may eventually reduce the projected carbon sink of tropical forests. Despite their crucial role no single terrestrial ecosystem model has included lianas so far. Here, we present the very first implementation of lianas in the Ecosystem Demography model (ED2). ED2 is able to represent the competition for water and light between different vegetation types at the regional level. Our new implementation of ED2 is hence suitable to address important questions such as the impact of lianas on the tropical forest carbon balance. We validated the model against forest inventory and eddy covariance flux data at a dry seasonal site (Barro Colorado Island, Panama), and at a wet rainforest site (Paracou, French Guiana). The model was able to represent size structure and carbon accumulation rates. We also evaluated the impact of the unique allocation strategy of lianas on their competitive ability. Lianas invest only a small fraction of their carbon for structural tissues when compared to trees. As a result, lianas benefit from an extra amount of available carbon, however the trade-offs of low allocation on structural tissues are not yet well understood. We are currently investigating a number of hypotheses, including the possibility for lianas to have high turnover rates for leaves and fine roots, or to have high mortality rates due to the loss of structural support when trees die. As such our model allows us to get a better understanding of the role of lianas in the tropical forest carbon cycle.

  11. tree crown ratio models for tropical rainforests in oban division

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    DR ADESOPE

    habitat variable. It is often estimated using allometry. Modified versions of Logistics,. Richards, Weibull and Exponential functions were used to predict CR for ..... (ANOVA) were carried out to investigate significant differences in tree growth variables under different canopy layers. The mathematical model for the design is: 9.

  12. Southern hemisphere application of the Navy Nested Tropical Cyclone model

    OpenAIRE

    Peak, James E.; Elsberry, Russell L.

    1982-01-01

    This work was sponsored by the Naval Air Systems Command through the Naval Environmental Prediction Research Facility, Monterey, CA under Program Element 62759N, Project Number WF59-551, "Meteorology Models and Prediction". http://archive.org/details/southernhemisphe00peak NA

  13. (Tropical) soil organic matter modelling: problems and prospects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Keulen, van H.

    2001-01-01

    Soil organic matter plays an important role in many physical, chemical and biological processes. However, the quantitative relations between the mineral and organic components of the soil and the relations with the vegetation are poorly understood. In such situations, the use of models is an

  14. Potential Vorticity Asymmetries and Tropical Cyclone Evolution in a Moist Three-Layer Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shapiro, Lloyd J.

    2000-11-01

    The role of potential vorticity (PV) asymmetries in the evolution of a tropical cyclone is investigated using a three-layer model that includes boundary layer friction, surface moisture fluxes, and a convergence-based convective parameterization. In a benchmark experiment, a symmetric vortex is first spun up on an f plane for 24 h. The symmetric vortex has a realistic structure, including a local PV maximum inside its radius of maximum wind (RMW). A weak azimuthal-wavenumber 2 PV asymmetry confined to the lower two layers of the model is then added to the vortex near the RMW. After an additional 2 h (for a total 26-h simulation), the asymmetric PV anomaly produces changes in the symmetric vortex that have significant differences from those in dry experiments with the present model or previous barotropic studies. A diagnosis of the contributions to changes in the symmetric wind tendency due to the asymmetry confirm the dominance of horizontal eddy fluxes at early times. The barotropic eddy kick provided by the anomaly lasts 2 h, which is the damping timescale for the disturbance.Additional experiments with an imposed isolated double-PV anomaly are made. Contrary to expectation from the dry experiments or barotropic studies, based on arguments involving `wave activity,' moving the anomaly closer to the center of the vortex or farther out does not change the overall evolution of the symmetric vortex. The physical mechanism responsible for the differences between the barotropic studies and those including moist physics as well as for the robustness of the response is established using a budget for the asymmetric vorticity. It is shown that the interactions between the asymmetries and the symmetric hurricane vortex at early times depend on realistic features of the model hurricane and not on interactions between the asymmetries and the boundary layer, which possibly depend on the convective parameterization. In particular, the changes in the symmetric wind tendency due

  15. Modeling and simulation of complex systems a framework for efficient agent-based modeling and simulation

    CERN Document Server

    Siegfried, Robert

    2014-01-01

    Robert Siegfried presents a framework for efficient agent-based modeling and simulation of complex systems. He compares different approaches for describing structure and dynamics of agent-based models in detail. Based on this evaluation the author introduces the "General Reference Model for Agent-based Modeling and Simulation" (GRAMS). Furthermore he presents parallel and distributed simulation approaches for execution of agent-based models -from small scale to very large scale. The author shows how agent-based models may be executed by different simulation engines that utilize underlying hard

  16. Magnetosphere Modeling: From Cartoons to Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gombosi, T. I.

    2017-12-01

    Over the last half a century physics-based global computer simulations became a bridge between experiment and basic theory and now it represents the "third pillar" of geospace research. Today, many of our scientific publications utilize large-scale simulations to interpret observations, test new ideas, plan campaigns, or design new instruments. Realistic simulations of the complex Sun-Earth system have been made possible by the dramatically increased power of both computing hardware and numerical algorithms. Early magnetosphere models were based on simple E&M concepts (like the Chapman-Ferraro cavity) and hydrodynamic analogies (bow shock). At the beginning of the space age current system models were developed culminating in the sophisticated Tsyganenko-type description of the magnetic configuration. The first 3D MHD simulations of the magnetosphere were published in the early 1980s. A decade later there were several competing global models that were able to reproduce many fundamental properties of the magnetosphere. The leading models included the impact of the ionosphere by using a height-integrated electric potential description. Dynamic coupling of global and regional models started in the early 2000s by integrating a ring current and a global magnetosphere model. It has been recognized for quite some time that plasma kinetic effects play an important role. Presently, global hybrid simulations of the dynamic magnetosphere are expected to be possible on exascale supercomputers, while fully kinetic simulations with realistic mass ratios are still decades away. In the 2010s several groups started to experiment with PIC simulations embedded in large-scale 3D MHD models. Presently this integrated MHD-PIC approach is at the forefront of magnetosphere simulations and this technique is expected to lead to some important advances in our understanding of magnetosheric physics. This talk will review the evolution of magnetosphere modeling from cartoons to current systems

  17. Species distribution models of tropical deep-sea snappers.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Céline Gomez

    Full Text Available Deep-sea fisheries provide an important source of protein to Pacific Island countries and territories that are highly dependent on fish for food security. However, spatial management of these deep-sea habitats is hindered by insufficient data. We developed species distribution models using spatially limited presence data for the main harvested species in the Western Central Pacific Ocean. We used bathymetric and water temperature data to develop presence-only species distribution models for the commercially exploited deep-sea snappers Etelis Cuvier 1828, Pristipomoides Valenciennes 1830, and Aphareus Cuvier 1830. We evaluated the performance of four different algorithms (CTA, GLM, MARS, and MAXENT within the BIOMOD framework to obtain an ensemble of predicted distributions. We projected these predictions across the Western Central Pacific Ocean to produce maps of potential deep-sea snapper distributions in 32 countries and territories. Depth was consistently the best predictor of presence for all species groups across all models. Bathymetric slope was consistently the poorest predictor. Temperature at depth was a good predictor of presence for GLM only. Model precision was highest for MAXENT and CTA. There were strong regional patterns in predicted distribution of suitable habitat, with the largest areas of suitable habitat (> 35% of the Exclusive Economic Zone predicted in seven South Pacific countries and territories (Fiji, Matthew & Hunter, Nauru, New Caledonia, Tonga, Vanuatu and Wallis & Futuna. Predicted habitat also varied among species, with the proportion of predicted habitat highest for Aphareus and lowest for Etelis. Despite data paucity, the relationship between deep-sea snapper presence and their environments was sufficiently strong to predict their distribution across a large area of the Pacific Ocean. Our results therefore provide a strong baseline for designing monitoring programs that balance resource exploitation and

  18. A 2-d modeling approach for studying the formation, maintenance, and decay of Tropical Tropopause Layer Cirrus associated with Deep Convection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henz, D. R.; Hashino, T.; Tripoli, G. J.; Smith, E. A.

    2009-12-01

    This study is being conducted to examine the distribution, variability, and formation-decay processes of TTL cirrus associated with tropical deep convection using the University of Wisconsin Non-Hydrostatic modeling system (NMS). The experimental design is based on Tripoli, Hack and Kiehl (1992) which explicitly simulates the radiative-convective equilibrium of the tropical atmosphere over extended periods of weeks or months using a 2D periodic cloud resolving model. The experiment design includes a radiation parameterization to explicitly simulate radiative transfer through simulated crystals. Advanced Microphysics Prediction System (AMP) will be used to simulate microphysics by employing SHIPS (Spectral Habit Ice Prediction System) for ice, SLiPS (Spectral Liquid Prediction System) for droplets, and SAPS (Spectral Aerosol Prediction System) for aerosols. The ice scheme called SHIPS is unique in that ice particle properties (such as size, particle density, and crystal habitats) are explicitly predicted in a CRM (Hashino and Tripoli, 2007, 2008). The Advanced Microphysics Prediction System (AMPS) technology provides a particularly strong tool that effectively enables the explicit modeling of the TTL cloud microphysics and dynamical processes which has yet to be accomplished by more traditional bulk microphysics approaches.

  19. Computer Based Modelling and Simulation

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    A familiar example of a feedback loop is the business model in which part of the output or profit is fedback as input or additional capital - for instance, a company may choose to reinvest 10% of the profit for expansion of the business. Such simple models, like ..... would help scientists, engineers and managers towards better.

  20. Complex Simulation Model of Mobile Fading Channel

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomas Marek

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available In the mobile communication environment the mobile channel is the main limiting obstacle to reach the best performance of wireless system. Modeling of the radio channel consists of two basic fading mechanisms - Long-term fading and Short-term fading. The contribution deals with simulation of complex mobile radio channel, which is the channel with all fading components. Simulation model is based on Clarke-Gans theoretical model for fading channel and is developed in MATLAB environment. Simulation results have shown very good coincidence with theory. This model was developed for hybrid adaptation 3G uplink simulator (described in this issue during the research project VEGA - 1/0140/03.

  1. Simulation Model Development for Mail Screening Process

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Vargo, Trish; Marvin, Freeman; Kooistra, Scott

    2005-01-01

    STUDY OBJECTIVE: Provide decision analysis support to the Homeland Defense Business Unit, Special Projects Team, in developing a simulation model to help determine the most effective way to eliminate backlog...

  2. SEIR model simulation for Hepatitis B

    Science.gov (United States)

    Side, Syafruddin; Irwan, Mulbar, Usman; Sanusi, Wahidah

    2017-09-01

    Mathematical modelling and simulation for Hepatitis B discuss in this paper. Population devided by four variables, namely: Susceptible, Exposed, Infected and Recovered (SEIR). Several factors affect the population in this model is vaccination, immigration and emigration that occurred in the population. SEIR Model obtained Ordinary Differential Equation (ODE) non-linear System 4-D which then reduces to 3-D. SEIR model simulation undertaken to predict the number of Hepatitis B cases. The results of the simulation indicates the number of Hepatitis B cases will increase and then decrease for several months. The result of simulation using the number of case in Makassar also found the basic reproduction number less than one, that means, Makassar city is not an endemic area of Hepatitis B.

  3. On the development of a coupled regional climate-vegetation model RCM-CLM-CN-DV and its validation in Tropical Africa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Guiling [Univ. of Connecticut, Storrs, CT (United States); Yu, Miao [Univ. of Connecticut, Storrs, CT (United States); Pal, Jeremy [Loyola Marymount Univ., Los Angeles, CA (United States); Mei, Rui [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Univ. of Connecticut, Storrs, CT (United States); Bonan, Gordon [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Levis, Sam [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Thornton, Peter E. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    2015-04-24

    This paper presents a regional climate system model RCM-CLM-CN-DV and its validation over Tropical Africa. The model development involves the initial coupling between the ICTP regional climate model RegCM4.3.4 (RCM) and the Community Land Model version 4 (CLM4) including models of carbon-nitrogen dynamics (CN) and vegetation dynamics (DV), and further improvements of the models. Model improvements derive from the new parameterization from CLM4.5 that addresses the well documented overestimation of gross primary production (GPP), a refinement of stress deciduous phenology scheme in CN that addresses a spurious LAI fluctuation for drought-deciduous plants, and the incorporation of a survival rule into the DV model to prevent tropical broadleaf evergreens trees from growing in areas with a prolonged drought season. The impact of the modifications on model results is documented based on numerical experiments using various subcomponents of the model. The performance of the coupled model is then validated against observational data based on three configurations with increasing capacity: RCM-CLM with prescribed leaf area index and fractional coverage of different plant functional types (PFTs); RCM-CLM-CN with prescribed PFTs coverage but prognostic plant phenology; RCM-CLM-CN-DV in which both the plant phenology and PFTs coverage are simulated by the model. Results from these three models are compared against the FLUXNET up-scaled GPP and ET data, LAI and PFT coverages from remote sensing data including MODIS and GIMMS, University of Delaware precipitation and temperature data, and surface radiation data from MVIRI and SRB. Our results indicate that the models perform well in reproducing the physical climate and surface radiative budgets in the domain of interest. However, PFTs coverage is significantly underestimated by the model over arid and semi-arid regions of Tropical Africa, caused by an underestimation of LAI in these regions by the CN model that gets exacerbated

  4. Simulation data mapping in virtual cardiac model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiquan, Liu; Jingyi, Feng; Duan, Huilong; Siping, Chen

    2004-01-01

    Although 3D heart and torso model with realistic geometry are basis of simulation computation in LFX virtual cardiac model, the simulation results are mostly output in 2D format. To solve such a problem and enhance the virtual reality of LFX virtual cardiac model, the methods of voxel mapping and vertex project mapping were presented. With these methods, excitation isochrone map (EIM) was mapped from heart model with realistic geometry to real visible man heart model, and body surface potential map (BSPM) was mapped from torso model with realistic geometry to real visible man body surface. By visualizing in the 4Dview, which is a real-time 3D medical image visualization platform, the visualization results of EIM and BSPM simulation data before and after mapping were also provided. According to the visualization results, the output format of EIM and BSPM simulation data of LFX virtual cardiac model were extended from 2D to 4D (spatio-temporal) and from cardiac model with realistic geometry to real cardiac model, and more realistic and effective simulation was achieved.

  5. Fully Adaptive Radar Modeling and Simulation Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-04-01

    AFRL-RY-WP-TR-2017-0074 FULLY ADAPTIVE RADAR MODELING AND SIMULATION DEVELOPMENT Kristine L. Bell and Anthony Kellems Metron, Inc...SMALL BUSINESS INNOVATION RESEARCH (SBIR) PHASE I REPORT. Approved for public release; distribution unlimited. See additional restrictions...2017 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE FULLY ADAPTIVE RADAR MODELING AND SIMULATION DEVELOPMENT 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER FA8650-16-M-1774 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c

  6. Theory, modeling, and simulation annual report, 1992

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1993-05-01

    This report briefly discusses research on the following topics: development of electronic structure methods; modeling molecular processes in clusters; modeling molecular processes in solution; modeling molecular processes in separations chemistry; modeling interfacial molecular processes; modeling molecular processes in the atmosphere; methods for periodic calculations on solids; chemistry and physics of minerals; graphical user interfaces for computational chemistry codes; visualization and analysis of molecular simulations; integrated computational chemistry environment; and benchmark computations.

  7. Processes limiting the emergence of detectable aerosol indirect effects on tropical warm clouds in global aerosol-climate model and satellite data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karsten Peters

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available We use data from simulations performed with the global aerosol-climate model ECHAM5-HAM to test the proposition that shipping emissions do not have a statistically significant effect on water clouds over tropical oceans on climate scales put forward in earlier satellite based work. We analyse a total of four sensitivity experiments, three of which employ global shipping emissions and one simulation which only employs shipping emissions in the mid-Atlantic Ocean. To ensure comparability to earlier results from observations, we sample the model data using a method previously applied to satellite data aimed at separating ‘clean’ from ‘polluted’ oceanic regions based on i the location of main shipping routes and ii wind direction at 10 m above sea level. The model simulations run with realistic present-day shipping emissions show changes in the lower tropospheric aerosol population attributable to shipping emissions across major shipping corridors over tropical oceans. However, we find the resulting effect on cloud properties to be non-distinguishable from natural gradients and variability, that is, gradients of cloud properties sampled across major shipping corridors over tropical oceans are very similar among those simulations. Our results therefore compare well to the earlier findings from satellite observations. Substantial changes of the aerosol population and cloud properties only occur when shipping emissions are increased 10-fold. We find that aerosol advection and rapid aerosol removal from the atmosphere play an important role in determining the non-significant response in i column integrated aerosol properties and ii cloud microphysical properties in the realistic simulations. Additionally, high variability and infrequent occurrence of simulated low-level clouds over tropical oceans in ECHAM5-HAM limit the development of aerosol indirect effects because i in-cloud production of sulphate from ship-emitted sulphuric species via

  8. A universal approach to estimate biomass and carbon stock in tropical forests using generic allometric models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vieilledent, G; Vaudry, R; Andriamanohisoa, S F D; Rakotonarivo, O S; Randrianasolo, H Z; Razafindrabe, H N; Rakotoarivony, C Bidaud; Ebeling, J; Rasamoelina, M

    2012-03-01

    Allometric equations allow aboveground tree biomass and carbon stock to be estimated from tree size. The allometric scaling theory suggests the existence of a universal power-law relationship between tree biomass and tree diameter with a fixed scaling exponent close to 8/3. In addition, generic empirical models, like Chave's or Brown's models, have been proposed for tropical forests in America and Asia. These generic models have been used to estimate forest biomass and carbon worldwide. However, tree allometry depends on environmental and genetic factors that vary from region to region. Consequently, theoretical models that include too few ecological explicative variables or empirical generic models that have been calibrated at particular sites are unlikely to yield accurate tree biomass estimates at other sites. In this study, we based our analysis on a destructive sample of 481 trees in Madagascar spiny dry and moist forests characterized by a high rate of endemism (> 95%). We show that, among the available generic allometric models, Chave's model including diameter, height, and wood specific gravity as explicative variables for a particular forest type (dry, moist, or wet tropical forest) was the only one that gave accurate tree biomass estimates for Madagascar (R2 > 83%, bias allometric models. When biomass allometric models are not available for a given forest site, this result shows that a simple height-diameter allometry is needed to accurately estimate biomass and carbon stock from plot inventories.

  9. Modeling of magnetic particle suspensions for simulations

    CERN Document Server

    Satoh, Akira

    2017-01-01

    The main objective of the book is to highlight the modeling of magnetic particles with different shapes and magnetic properties, to provide graduate students and young researchers information on the theoretical aspects and actual techniques for the treatment of magnetic particles in particle-based simulations. In simulation, we focus on the Monte Carlo, molecular dynamics, Brownian dynamics, lattice Boltzmann and stochastic rotation dynamics (multi-particle collision dynamics) methods. The latter two simulation methods can simulate both the particle motion and the ambient flow field simultaneously. In general, specialized knowledge can only be obtained in an effective manner under the supervision of an expert. The present book is written to play such a role for readers who wish to develop the skill of modeling magnetic particles and develop a computer simulation program using their own ability. This book is therefore a self-learning book for graduate students and young researchers. Armed with this knowledge,...

  10. Challenges for Modeling and Simulation

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Johnson, James

    2002-01-01

    This document deals with modeling and stimulation. The strengths are study processes that rarely or never occur, evaluate a wide range of alternatives, generate new ideas, new concepts and innovative solutions...

  11. Modelling and Simulation of Wave Loads

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Thoft-Christensen, Palle

    1985-01-01

    A simple model of the wave load on stender members of offshore structures is described . The wave elevation of the sea stateis modelled by a stationary Gaussian process. A new procedure to simulate realizations of the wave loads is developed. The simulation method assumes that the wave particle...... velocity can be approximated by a Gaussian Markov process. Known approximate results for the first passage density or equivalently, the distribution of the extremes of wave loads are presented and compared with rather precise simulation results. It is demonstrated that the approximate results...

  12. Modelling and Simulation of Wave Loads

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Thoft-Christensen, Palle

    velocity can be approximated by a Gaussian Markov process. Known approximate results for the first-passage density or equivalently, the distribution of the extremes of wave loads are presented and compared with rather precise simulation results. It is demonstrated that the approximate results......A simple model of the wave load on slender members of offshore structures is described. The wave elevation of the sea state is modelled by a stationary Gaussian process. A new procedure to simulate realizations of the wave loads is developed. The simulation method assumes that the wave particle...

  13. Modelling and Simulation of Wave Loads

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Thoft-Christensen, Palle

    1985-01-01

    velocity can be approximated by a Gaussian Markov process. Known approximate results for the first passage density or equivalently, the distribution of the extremes of wave loads are presented and compared with rather precise simulation results. It is demonstrated that the approximate results......A simple model of the wave load on stender members of offshore structures is described . The wave elevation of the sea stateis modelled by a stationary Gaussian process. A new procedure to simulate realizations of the wave loads is developed. The simulation method assumes that the wave particle...

  14. Modeling and simulation of discrete event systems

    CERN Document Server

    Choi, Byoung Kyu

    2013-01-01

    Computer modeling and simulation (M&S) allows engineers to study and analyze complex systems. Discrete-event system (DES)-M&S is used in modern management, industrial engineering, computer science, and the military. As computer speeds and memory capacity increase, so DES-M&S tools become more powerful and more widely used in solving real-life problems. Based on over 20 years of evolution within a classroom environment, as well as on decades-long experience in developing simulation-based solutions for high-tech industries, Modeling and Simulation of Discrete-Event Systems is the only book on

  15. Minimum-complexity helicopter simulation math model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heffley, Robert K.; Mnich, Marc A.

    1988-01-01

    An example of a minimal complexity simulation helicopter math model is presented. Motivating factors are the computational delays, cost, and inflexibility of the very sophisticated math models now in common use. A helicopter model form is given which addresses each of these factors and provides better engineering understanding of the specific handling qualities features which are apparent to the simulator pilot. The technical approach begins with specification of features which are to be modeled, followed by a build up of individual vehicle components and definition of equations. Model matching and estimation procedures are given which enable the modeling of specific helicopters from basic data sources such as flight manuals. Checkout procedures are given which provide for total model validation. A number of possible model extensions and refinement are discussed. Math model computer programs are defined and listed.

  16. A simulation model for football championships

    OpenAIRE

    Koning, Ruud H.; Koolhaas, Michael; Renes, Gusta

    2001-01-01

    In this paper we discuss a simulation/probability model that identifies the team that is most likely to win a tournament. The model can also be used to answer other questions like ‘which team had a lucky draw?’ or ‘what is the probability that two teams meet at some moment in the tournament?’. Input to the simulation/probability model are scoring intensities, that are estimated as a weighted average of goals scored. The model has been used in practice to write articles for the popular press, ...

  17. Modeling an Extreme Precipitation Event over the Atacama Desert: The Impact of Warmer SST Anomalies in the Eastern Tropical Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bozkurt, D.; Rondanelli, R. F.; Garreaud, R. D.

    2015-12-01

    Northern Chile (NC), located along the west coast of South America between 28°S-20°S, hosts the driest place on Earth, Quillagua in the Atacama Desert (annual mean precipitation of 0.05 mm for 1969-2000 period). Nonetheless, an extreme precipitation event affected the region on 24-26 March 2015 with 1-day accumulated precipitation exceeding 40 mm in several locations and 4 mm in Quillagua, producing floods and resulting in casualties and significant damage. Two favorable conditions existed during the event: (i) a specific synoptic condition dominated by a cut-off low (COL) pressure system off the coasts of NC and (ii) positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over eastern tropical Pacific favored by the onset of El Niño pattern. The main issue of the present study is to disentangle the relative role of SST anomaly and the COL in explaining this extreme precipitation event. The event is investigated using a regional climate model and its sensitivity to SST anomalies in the eastern tropical Pacific is tested. The ICTP-RegCM4 model is applied in a nested configuration with two domains at 60- and 10-km resolutions using different convective precipitation schemes. Boundary conditions are provided by ERA-Interim and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and different temporal SST input fields (weekly and daily) are used. Results indicate that simulations driven by ERA-Interim reanalysis and daily SST data realistically represent the precipitation distribution and associated convective systems over NC under the mixed convective scheme. The precipitation maxima appeared to be in the coastal areas and propagate inland, following the location of the COL center that allowed northerly moisture transport towards the Atacama Desert. In order to test sensitivity of precipitation to SST, the warm anomaly of SST in the eastern tropical Pacific is removed, which leads to a cooler SST forcing in the sensitivity experiment. The cooler SST simulation reproduced a very similar COL

  18. Numerical Simulations and Diagnostic Studies of Meteorological Conditions During PEM-Tropics B

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuelberg, Henry E.

    2001-01-01

    Provides a final report on the work accomplished by several meteorological scientists under a NASA grant in conjunction with the DC-8 component of Pacific Exploratory Mission (PEM)-Tropics B. The responsibilities of the principal investigator included collaboration with the Science Team on flight planning, presentation of forecasts, and the preparation of map discussions for each flight. In a published manuscript, the principal investigator summarized the meteorological conditions during PEM-TB which included mean flow patterns, subtropical anticyclones, the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ), and the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Methodologies used included streamlines, ten day backward trajectories, thermodynamic soundings, and satellite imagery. Other interests included air sampling for the purpose of determining pollution levels.

  19. Computer Based Modelling and Simulation

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Modelling Deterministic Systems. N K Srinivasan gradu- ated from Indian. Institute of Science and obtained his Doctorate from Columbia Univer- sity, New York. He has taught in several universities, and later did system analysis, wargaming and simula- tion for defence. His other areas of interest are reliability engineer-.

  20. ENSO Effect on East Asian Tropical Cyclone Landfall via Changes in Tracks and Genesis in a Statistical Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yonekura, Emmi; Hall, Timothy M.

    2014-01-01

    Improvements on a statistical tropical cyclone (TC) track model in the western North Pacific Ocean are described. The goal of the model is to study the effect of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on East Asian TC landfall. The model is based on the International Best-Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) database of TC observations for 1945-2007 and employs local regression of TC formation rates and track increments on the Nino-3.4 index and seasonally varying climate parameters. The main improvements are the inclusion of ENSO dependence in the track propagation and accounting for seasonality in both genesis and tracks. A comparison of simulations of the 1945-2007 period with observations concludes that the model updates improve the skill of this model in simulating TCs. Changes in TC genesis and tracks are analyzed separately and cumulatively in simulations of stationary extreme ENSO states. ENSO effects on regional (100-km scale) landfall are attributed to changes in genesis and tracks. The effect of ENSO on genesis is predominantly a shift in genesis location from the southeast in El Nino years to the northwest in La Nina years, resulting in higher landfall rates for the East Asian coast during La Nina. The effect of ENSO on track propagation varies seasonally and spatially. In the peak activity season (July-October), there are significant changes in mean tracks with ENSO. Landfall-rate changes from genesis- and track-ENSO effects in the Philippines cancel out, while coastal segments of Vietnam, China, the Korean Peninsula, and Japan show enhanced La Nina-year increases.

  1. Modelling and simulating fire tube boiler performance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, K.; Condra, T.; Houbak, Niels

    2003-01-01

    A model for a flue gas boiler covering the flue gas and the water-/steam side has been formulated. The model has been formulated as a number of sub models that are merged into an overall model for the complete boiler. Sub models have been defined for the furnace, the convection zone (split in 2......: a zone submerged in water and a zone covered by steam), a model for the material in the boiler (the steel) and 2 models for resp. the water/steam zone (the boiling) and the steam. The dynamic model has been developed as a number of Differential-Algebraic-Equation system (DAE). Subsequently Mat......Lab/Simulink has been applied for carrying out the simulations. To be able to verify the simulated results experiments has been carried out on a full scale boiler plant....

  2. The role of ocean fluxes and radiative forcings in determining tropical rainfall shifts in RCP8.5 simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    McFarlane, Ashly Ann; Frierson, Dargan M. W.

    2017-08-01

    We use Coupled Model Intercomparison Project global climate models forced with the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario to attribute tropical precipitation shifts under global warming scenarios and changes in cross-equatorial atmosphere heat transport (c-eq AHT) to changes in ocean and radiative fluxes. We find that the models tend to agree on the sign of c-eq AHT and change in precipitation asymmetry induced by each forcing, but not the magnitude. The ice-albedo feedback and aerosol emission reduction lead to the Northern Hemisphere warming, but this is countered by a reduction to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation northward heat transport and increased longwave leading to the multimodel mean change in precipitation asymmetry being approximately zero. None of the forcings considered, including aerosol cleanup, can account for more than 20% of the multimodel mean change in c-eq AHT alone.

  3. The Brazilian Developments on the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (BRAMS 5.2): An Integrated Environmental Model Tuned for Tropical Areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freitas, Saulo R.; Panetta, Jairo; Longo, Karla M.; Rodrigues, Luiz F.; Moreira, Demerval S.; Rosario, Nilton E.; Silva Dias, Pedro L.; Silva Dias, Maria A. F.; Souza, Enio P.; Freitas, Edmilson D.; hide

    2017-01-01

    We present a new version of the Brazilian developments on the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System where different previous versions for weather, chemistry and carbon cycle were unified in a single integrated software system. The new version also has a new set of state-of-the-art physical parameterizations and greater computational parallel and memory usage efficiency. Together with the description of the main features are examples of the quality of the transport scheme for scalars, radiative fluxes on surface and model simulation of rainfall systems over South America in different spatial resolutions using a scale-aware convective parameterization. Besides, the simulation of the diurnal cycle of the convection and carbon dioxide concentration over the Amazon Basin, as well as carbon dioxide fluxes from biogenic processes over a large portion of South America are shown. Atmospheric chemistry examples present model performance in simulating near-surface carbon monoxide and ozone in Amazon Basin and Rio de Janeiro megacity. For tracer transport and dispersion, it is demonstrated the model capabilities to simulate the volcanic ash 3-d redistribution associated with the eruption of a Chilean volcano. Then, the gain of computational efficiency is described with some details. BRAMS has been applied for research and operational forecasting mainly in South America. Model results from the operational weather forecast of BRAMS on 5 km grid spacing in the Center for Weather Forecasting and Climate Studies, INPE/Brazil, since 2013 are used to quantify the model skill of near surface variables and rainfall. The scores show the reliability of BRAMS for the tropical and subtropical areas of South America. Requirements for keeping this modeling system competitive regarding on its functionalities and skills are discussed. At last, we highlight the relevant contribution of this work on the building up of a South American community of model developers.

  4. Simulation of the transfer of hydrocarbons in unconfined aquifer in tropical zone: the case of benzene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agnès Kouamé, Amenan; Jaboyedoff, Michel; Derron, Marc-Henri; Kouamé, Kan Jean

    2016-04-01

    Groundwater is the largest global reserves of continental freshwater (Bosca, 2002) and also an important source of drinking water in many parts of the world (Brassington. 2007). However, this resource is today threatened by pollution such as inadequate supply of drinking water services, inaccessibility and / or dilapidated sanitation facilities and excessive use fertilizers, and industrial wastewater and solid waste pesticides (Boubacar, 2010) and the rapid urbanization in great cities (Foster, 2001). Abidjan, the largest city in Côte d'Ivoire is also facing pollution problems such as illegal dumping of waste, waste oil spilled garages, land application of domestic and industrial wastewater, automotive workshops, overexploitation of sand in the Ebrié lagoon, open waste dump of Akouédo and the spill of about 400,000 liters of toxic waste from the ship "Probo Koala" in August 2006. The Abidjan aquifer or the Continental terminal aquifer is the main source of supply drinking water. It is mainly composed of sandy and it is an unconfined aquifer as a whole (Jourda, 1987). According to Gilli and al., (2012), the recharge of unconfined aquifers comes mostly from the infiltration of surface water including rainwater. These waters on their transport in the basement could carry certain pollutants into groundwater. Kouamé (2007) reports a potential groundwater pollution of the "Continental terminal" aquifer in Abidjan. In addition to the cases cited pollution, there has been a proliferation of service stations in the district of Abidjan and this can cause possible pollution. We deemed it necessary to conduct a study on the groundwater pollution of Abidjan by oil in general. We chose benzene to simulate organic pollution in case of accident. To observe the likely evolution of such contaminants in the subsurface, we developed hydrogeological models that couple groundwater flow and benzene transport with FEFLOW software in steady and transient states. The models are composed

  5. Modeling the inorganic bromine partitioning in the tropical tropopause layer over the eastern and western Pacific Ocean

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. A. Navarro

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available The stratospheric inorganic bromine (Bry burden arising from the degradation of brominated very short-lived organic substances (VSLorg and its partitioning between reactive and reservoir species is needed for a comprehensive assessment of the ozone depletion potential of brominated trace gases. Here we present modeled inorganic bromine abundances over the Pacific tropical tropopause based on aircraft observations of VSLorg from two campaigns of the Airborne Tropical TRopopause EXperiment (ATTREX 2013, carried out over the eastern Pacific, and ATTREX 2014, carried out over the western Pacific and chemistry-climate simulations (along ATTREX flight tracks using the specific meteorology prevailing. Using the Community Atmosphere Model with Chemistry (CAM-Chem we model that BrO and Br are the daytime dominant species. Integrated across all ATTREX flights, BrO represents ∼ 43 and 48 % of daytime Bry abundance at 17 km over the western and eastern Pacific, respectively. The results also show zones where Br / BrO > 1 depending on the solar zenith angle (SZA, ozone concentration, and temperature. On the other hand, BrCl and BrONO2 were found to be the dominant nighttime species with ∼  61 and 56 % of abundance at 17 km over the western and eastern Pacific, respectively. The western-to-eastern differences in the partitioning of inorganic bromine are explained by different abundances of ozone (O3, nitrogen dioxide (NO2, total inorganic chlorine (Cly, and the efficiency of heterogeneous reactions of bromine reservoirs (mostly BrONO2 and HBr occurring on ice crystals.

  6. Modeling the inorganic bromine partitioning in the tropical tropopause layer over the eastern and western Pacific Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Navarro, Maria A.; Saiz-Lopez, Alfonso; Cuevas, Carlos A.; Fernandez, Rafael P.; Atlas, Elliot; Rodriguez-Lloveras, Xavier; Kinnison, Douglas; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Tilmes, Simone; Thornberry, Troy; Rollins, Andrew; Elkins, James W.; Hintsa, Eric J.; Moore, Fred L.

    2017-08-01

    The stratospheric inorganic bromine (Bry) burden arising from the degradation of brominated very short-lived organic substances (VSLorg) and its partitioning between reactive and reservoir species is needed for a comprehensive assessment of the ozone depletion potential of brominated trace gases. Here we present modeled inorganic bromine abundances over the Pacific tropical tropopause based on aircraft observations of VSLorg from two campaigns of the Airborne Tropical TRopopause EXperiment (ATTREX 2013, carried out over the eastern Pacific, and ATTREX 2014, carried out over the western Pacific) and chemistry-climate simulations (along ATTREX flight tracks) using the specific meteorology prevailing. Using the Community Atmosphere Model with Chemistry (CAM-Chem) we model that BrO and Br are the daytime dominant species. Integrated across all ATTREX flights, BrO represents ˜ 43 and 48 % of daytime Bry abundance at 17 km over the western and eastern Pacific, respectively. The results also show zones where Br / BrO > 1 depending on the solar zenith angle (SZA), ozone concentration, and temperature. On the other hand, BrCl and BrONO2 were found to be the dominant nighttime species with ˜ 61 and 56 % of abundance at 17 km over the western and eastern Pacific, respectively. The western-to-eastern differences in the partitioning of inorganic bromine are explained by different abundances of ozone (O3), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), total inorganic chlorine (Cly), and the efficiency of heterogeneous reactions of bromine reservoirs (mostly BrONO2 and HBr) occurring on ice crystals.

  7. Model Driven Development of Simulation Models : Defining and Transforming Conceptual Models into Simulation Models by Using Metamodels and Model Transformations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Küçükkeçeci Çetinkaya, D.

    2013-01-01

    Modeling and simulation (M&S) is an effective method for analyzing and designing systems and it is of interest to scientists and engineers from all disciplines. This thesis proposes the application of a model driven software development approach throughout the whole set of M&S activities and it

  8. simulations of roughage intake

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Nsahlai

    Feed is the single most costly input into any livestock production enterprise and it is in the interest of livestock ... the suitability of Illius and Gordon's simulation model for predicting the digestibility and intake of tropical ...... of intake and digestibility by animals on tropical pastures and range, such a fine-tuning process would.

  9. Representation of tropical deep convection in atmospheric models – Part 2: Tracer transport

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. R. Hoyle

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available The tropical transport processes of 14 different models or model versions were compared, within the framework of the SCOUT-O3 (Stratospheric-Climate Links with Emphasis on the Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere project. The tested models range from the regional to the global scale, and include numerical weather prediction (NWP, chemical transport, and chemistry-climate models. Idealised tracers were used in order to prevent the model's chemistry schemes from influencing the results substantially, so that the effects of modelled transport could be isolated. We find large differences in the vertical transport of very short-lived tracers (with a lifetime of 6 h within the tropical troposphere. Peak convective outflow altitudes range from around 300 hPa to almost 100 hPa among the different models, and the upper tropospheric tracer mixing ratios differ by up to an order of magnitude. The timing of convective events is found to be different between the models, even among those which source their forcing data from the same NWP model (ECMWF. The differences are less pronounced for longer lived tracers, however they could have implications for modelling the halogen burden of the lowermost stratosphere through transport of species such as bromoform, or short-lived hydrocarbons into the lowermost stratosphere. The modelled tracer profiles are strongly influenced by the convective transport parameterisations, and different boundary layer mixing parameterisations also have a large impact on the modelled tracer profiles. Preferential locations for rapid transport from the surface into the upper troposphere are similar in all models, and are mostly concentrated over the western Pacific, the Maritime Continent and the Indian Ocean. In contrast, models do not indicate that upward transport is highest over western Africa.

  10. A global model of the response of tropical and sub-tropical forest biodiversity to anthropogenic pressures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newbold, Tim; Hudson, Lawrence N.; Phillips, Helen R. P.; Hill, Samantha L. L.; Contu, Sara; Lysenko, Igor; Blandon, Abigayil; Butchart, Stuart H. M.; Booth, Hollie L.; Day, Julie; De Palma, Adriana; Harrison, Michelle L. K.; Kirkpatrick, Lucinda; Pynegar, Edwin; Robinson, Alexandra; Simpson, Jake; Mace, Georgina M.; Scharlemann, Jörn P. W.; Purvis, Andy

    2014-01-01

    Habitat loss and degradation, driven largely by agricultural expansion and intensification, present the greatest immediate threat to biodiversity. Tropical forests harbour among the highest levels of terrestrial species diversity and are likely to experience rapid land-use change in the coming decades. Synthetic analyses of observed responses of species are useful for quantifying how land use affects biodiversity and for predicting outcomes under land-use scenarios. Previous applications of this approach have typically focused on individual taxonomic groups, analysing the average response of the whole community to changes in land use. Here, we incorporate quantitative remotely sensed data about habitats in, to our knowledge, the first worldwide synthetic analysis of how individual species in four major taxonomic groups—invertebrates, ‘herptiles’ (reptiles and amphibians), mammals and birds—respond to multiple human pressures in tropical and sub-tropical forests. We show significant independent impacts of land use, human vegetation offtake, forest cover and human population density on both occurrence and abundance of species, highlighting the value of analysing multiple explanatory variables simultaneously. Responses differ among the four groups considered, and—within birds and mammals—between habitat specialists and habitat generalists and between narrow-ranged and wide-ranged species. PMID:25143038

  11. Simulation and modeling of turbulent flows

    CERN Document Server

    Gatski, Thomas B; Lumley, John L

    1996-01-01

    This book provides students and researchers in fluid engineering with an up-to-date overview of turbulent flow research in the areas of simulation and modeling. A key element of the book is the systematic, rational development of turbulence closure models and related aspects of modern turbulent flow theory and prediction. Starting with a review of the spectral dynamics of homogenous and inhomogeneous turbulent flows, succeeding chapters deal with numerical simulation techniques, renormalization group methods and turbulent closure modeling. Each chapter is authored by recognized leaders in their respective fields, and each provides a thorough and cohesive treatment of the subject.

  12. Dynamic modeling and simulation of wind turbines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ghafari Seadat, M.H.; Kheradmand Keysami, M.; Lari, H.R.

    2002-01-01

    Using wind energy for generating electricity in wind turbines is a good way for using renewable energies. It can also help to protect the environment. The main objective of this paper is dynamic modeling by energy method and simulation of a wind turbine aided by computer. In this paper, the equations of motion are extracted for simulating the system of wind turbine and then the behavior of the system become obvious by solving the equations. The turbine is considered with three blade rotor in wind direction, induced generator that is connected to the network and constant revolution for simulation of wind turbine. Every part of the wind turbine should be simulated for simulation of wind turbine. The main parts are blades, gearbox, shafts and generator

  13. Hybrid simulation models of production networks

    CERN Document Server

    Kouikoglou, Vassilis S

    2001-01-01

    This book is concerned with a most important area of industrial production, that of analysis and optimization of production lines and networks using discrete-event models and simulation. The book introduces a novel approach that combines analytic models and discrete-event simulation. Unlike conventional piece-by-piece simulation, this method observes a reduced number of events between which the evolution of the system is tracked analytically. Using this hybrid approach, several models are developed for the analysis of production lines and networks. The hybrid approach combines speed and accuracy for exceptional analysis of most practical situations. A number of optimization problems, involving buffer design, workforce planning, and production control, are solved through the use of hybrid models.

  14. The behaviour of adaptive boneremodeling simulation models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Weinans, H.; Huiskes, R.; Grootenboer, H.J.

    1992-01-01

    The process of adaptive bone remodeling can be described mathematically and simulated in a computer model, integrated with the finite element method. In the model discussed here, cortical and trabecular bone are described as continuous materials with variable density. The remodeling rule applied to

  15. Analytical system dynamics modeling and simulation

    CERN Document Server

    Fabien, Brian C

    2008-01-01

    This book offering a modeling technique based on Lagrange's energy method includes 125 worked examples. Using this technique enables one to model and simulate systems as diverse as a six-link, closed-loop mechanism or a transistor power amplifier.

  16. Equivalent drawbead model in finite element simulations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Carleer, Bart D.; Carleer, B.D.; Meinders, Vincent T.; Huetink, Han; Lee, J.K.; Kinzel, G.L.; Wagoner, R.

    1996-01-01

    In 3D simulations of the deep drawing process the drawbead geometries are seldom included. Therefore equivalent drawbeads are used. In order to investigate the drawbead behaviour a 2D plane strain finite element model was used. For verification of this model experiments were performed. The analyses

  17. A simulation model for football championships

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koning, RH; Koolhaas, M; Renes, G; Ridder, G

    2003-01-01

    In this paper we discuss a simulation/probability model that identifies the team that is most likely to win a tournament. The model can also be used to answer other questions like 'which team bad a lucky draw?' or 'what is the probability that two teams meet at some moment in the tournament?' Input

  18. A simulation model for football championships

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koning, Ruud H.; Koolhaas, Michael; Renes, Gusta

    2001-01-01

    In this paper we discuss a simulation/probability model that identifies the team that is most likely to win a tournament. The model can also be used to answer other questions like ‘which team had a lucky draw?’ or ‘what is the probability that two teams meet at some moment in the tournament?’. Input

  19. Regularization modeling for large-eddy simulation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Geurts, Bernardus J.; Holm, D.D.

    2003-01-01

    A new modeling approach for large-eddy simulation (LES) is obtained by combining a "regularization principle" with an explicit filter and its inversion. This regularization approach allows a systematic derivation of the implied subgrid model, which resolves the closure problem. The central role of

  20. Validity of microgravity simulation models on earth

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Regnard, J; Heer, M; Drummer, C

    2001-01-01

    Many studies have used water immersion and head-down bed rest as experimental models to simulate responses to microgravity. However, some data collected during space missions are at variance or in contrast with observations collected from experimental models. These discrepancies could reflect inc...

  1. Landscape Modelling and Simulation Using Spatial Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amjed Naser Mohsin AL-Hameedawi

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available In this paper a procedure was performed for engendering spatial model of landscape acclimated to reality simulation. This procedure based on combining spatial data and field measurements with computer graphics reproduced using Blender software. Thereafter that we are possible to form a 3D simulation based on VIS ALL packages. The objective was to make a model utilising GIS, including inputs to the feature attribute data. The objective of these efforts concentrated on coordinating a tolerable spatial prototype, circumscribing facilitation scheme and outlining the intended framework. Thus; the eventual result was utilized in simulation form. The performed procedure contains not only data gathering, fieldwork and paradigm providing, but extended to supply a new method necessary to provide the respective 3D simulation mapping production, which authorises the decision makers as well as investors to achieve permanent acceptance an independent navigation system for Geoscience applications.

  2. Benchmark simulation models, quo vadis?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jeppsson, U.; Alex, J; Batstone, D. J.

    2013-01-01

    As the work of the IWA Task Group on Benchmarking of Control Strategies for wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) is coming to an end, it is essential to disseminate the knowledge gained. For this reason, all authors of the IWA Scientific and Technical Report on benchmarking have come together...... to provide their insights, highlighting areas where knowledge may still be deficient and where new opportunities are emerging, and to propose potential avenues for future development and application of the general benchmarking framework and its associated tools. The paper focuses on the topics of temporal...... and spatial extension, process modifications within the WWTP, the realism of models, control strategy extensions and the potential for new evaluation tools within the existing benchmark system. We find that there are major opportunities for application within all of these areas, either from existing work...

  3. A queuing model for road traffic simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guerrouahane, N.; Aissani, D.; Bouallouche-Medjkoune, L.; Farhi, N.

    2015-01-01

    We present in this article a stochastic queuing model for the raod traffic. The model is based on the M/G/c/c state dependent queuing model, and is inspired from the deterministic Godunov scheme for the road traffic simulation. We first propose a variant of M/G/c/c state dependent model that works with density-flow fundamental diagrams rather than density-speed relationships. We then extend this model in order to consider upstream traffic demand as well as downstream traffic supply. Finally, we show how to model a whole raod by concatenating raod sections as in the deterministic Godunov scheme

  4. Quantitative interface models for simulating microstructure evolution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhu, J.Z.; Wang, T.; Zhou, S.H.; Liu, Z.K.; Chen, L.Q.

    2004-01-01

    To quantitatively simulate microstructural evolution in real systems, we investigated three different interface models: a sharp-interface model implemented by the software DICTRA and two diffuse-interface models which use either physical order parameters or artificial order parameters. A particular example is considered, the diffusion-controlled growth of a γ ' precipitate in a supersaturated γ matrix in Ni-Al binary alloys. All three models use the thermodynamic and kinetic parameters from the same databases. The temporal evolution profiles of composition from different models are shown to agree with each other. The focus is on examining the advantages and disadvantages of each model as applied to microstructure evolution in alloys

  5. APPRAISAL OF THE SNAP MODEL FOR PREDICTING NITROGEN MINERALIZATION IN TROPICAL SOILS UNDER EUCALYPTUS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philip James Smethurst

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available The Soil Nitrogen Availability Predictor (SNAP model predicts daily and annual rates of net N mineralization (NNM based on daily weather measurements, daily predictions of soil water and soil temperature, and on temperature and moisture modifiers obtained during aerobic incubation (basal rate. The model was based on in situ measurements of NNM in Australian soils under temperate climate. The purpose of this study was to assess this model for use in tropical soils under eucalyptus plantations in São Paulo State, Brazil. Based on field incubations for one month in three, NNM rates were measured at 11 sites (0-20 cm layer for 21 months. The basal rate was determined in in situ incubations during moist and warm periods (January to March. Annual rates of 150-350 kg ha-1 yr-1 NNM predicted by the SNAP model were reasonably accurate (R2 = 0.84. In other periods, at lower moisture and temperature, NNM rates were overestimated. Therefore, if used carefully, the model can provide adequate predictions of annual NNM and may be useful in practical applications. For NNM predictions for shorter periods than a year or under suboptimal incubation conditions, the temperature and moisture modifiers need to be recalibrated for tropical conditions.

  6. Impact of period and timescale of FDDA analysis nudging on the numerical simulation of tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal

    KAUST Repository

    Viswanadhapalli, Yesubabu

    2014-06-22

    In this study, the impact of four-dimensional data assimilation (FDDA) analysis nudging is examined on the prediction of tropical cyclones (TC) in the Bay of Bengal to determine the optimum period and timescale of nudging. Six TCs (SIDR: November 13–16, 2007; NARGIS: April 29–May 02, 2008; NISHA: November 25–28, 2008; AILA: May 23–26, 2009; LAILA: May 18–21, 2010; JAL: November 04–07, 2010) were simulated with a doubly nested Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with a horizontal resolution of 9 km in the inner domain. In the control run for each cyclone, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS) analysis and forecasts at 0.5_ resolution are used for initial and boundary conditions. In the FDDA experiments available surface, upper air observations obtained from NCEP Atmospheric Data Project (ADP) data sets were used for assimilation after merging with the first guess through objective analysis procedure. Analysis nudging experiments with different nudging periods (6, 12, 18, and 24 h) indicated a period of 18 or 24 h of nudging during the pre-forecast stage provides maximum impact on simulations in terms of minimum track and intensity forecasts. To determine the optimum timescale of nudging, two cyclone cases (NARGIS: April 28–May 02, 2008; NISHA: November 25–28, 2008) were simulated varying the inverse timescales as 1.0e-4 to 5.0e-4 s−1 in steps of 1.0e-4 s−1. A positive impact of assimilation is found on the simulated characteristics with a nudging coefficient of either 3.0e-4 or 4.0e-4 s−1 which corresponds to a timescale of about 1 h for nudging dynamic (u,v) and thermodynamical (t,q) fields.

  7. Bringing simulation to implementation: presentation of a global approach in the design of passive solar buildings under humid tropical climates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garde, F.; Mara, T.; Lauret, A.P.; Boyer, H. [University of Reunion Island, Lab. de Genie Industriel, Saint-Pierre, Reunion Island (France); Celaire, R. [Concept Energie, Lambesc, 13 (France)

    2001-07-01

    In early 1995, a DSM pilot initiative was launched in the French islands of Guadeloupe and La Reunion through a partnership between several public and private partners (the French Public Utility EDF, the University of Reunion Island, low cost housing companies, architects, energy consultants, etc...) to set up standards to improve thermal design of new residential buildings in tropical climates. This partnership led to defining optimised bio-climatic urban planning and architectural designs featuring the use of passive cooling architectural principles (solar shading, natural ventilation) and components, as well as energy efficient systems and technologies. The design and size of each architectural component with regard to internal thermal comfort in buildings has been assessed with validated thermal and airflow building simulation software (CODYRUN). These technical specifications have been edited in a reference document which has been used to build over 800 new pilot dwellings through the years 1996-2000 in Reunion Island and in Guadeloupe. Monitoring experiments were held in these first ECODOM dwellings in 1998 and 1999. This resulted in experimental validation of the impact of the passive cooling strategies on the thermal comfort of occupants leading to the modification of specifications when necessary. The paper presents all the methodology used for the application of ECODOM, from the simulations to the experimental results. This follow up is important, as the setting up of the ECODOM standard will be the first step towards the introduction of thermal regulations in the French overseas territories, by the year 2002. (Author)

  8. A simulation model for the analysis of Space Station gas-phase trace contaminants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brewer, Dana A.; Hall, John B., Jr.

    1987-01-01

    A simulation model for the analysis of gas-phase trace contaminants in the cabin air of the NASA Space Station Reference Configuration was developed at the NASA Langley Research Center. The model predicts changes in trace contaminant concentrations from both physical and chemical sources and sinks as a function of time. Simulations were performed in which values for relative humidity, temperature, radiation intensity, pressure, and initial species concentrations were constrained to values for these parameters measured and modeled in the continental tropics at the earth's surface. Species concentrations simulated using the model compared favorably with concentrations in the continental tropics which demonstrated that the chemical mechanism in the trace contaminant model approximates changes in atmospheric species concentrations. The sensitivity of initial species concentrations to producing changes in additional species concentrations was also assessed. Results from the model indicated that chemical reactions will be important in determining the composition of cabin air in the Space Station. It is anticipated that the trace contaminant model will be useful in assessing the impact of experiments and commercial operations on the composition of the cabin air in the Space Station.

  9. Analyzing Strategic Business Rules through Simulation Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orta, Elena; Ruiz, Mercedes; Toro, Miguel

    Service Oriented Architecture (SOA) holds promise for business agility since it allows business process to change to meet new customer demands or market needs without causing a cascade effect of changes in the underlying IT systems. Business rules are the instrument chosen to help business and IT to collaborate. In this paper, we propose the utilization of simulation models to model and simulate strategic business rules that are then disaggregated at different levels of an SOA architecture. Our proposal is aimed to help find a good configuration for strategic business objectives and IT parameters. The paper includes a case study where a simulation model is built to help business decision-making in a context where finding a good configuration for different business parameters and performance is too complex to analyze by trial and error.

  10. Large-Eddy Simulations of Tropical Convective Systems, the Boundary Layer, and Upper Ocean Coupling

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-09-30

    ship observations of SST, solar radiation , and zonal wind in situ, from rawinsonde atmospheric profiles, and radar precipitation statistics. Large...Figure 1. SST warms and cools on intraseasonal time scales, forced by variations in solar flux and evaporation related to convective anomalies...resolution case. Figure 4. Horizontally averaged cloud water content from the low resolution simulation (top) and surface shortwave

  11. Simulation of Transcritical CO2 Refrigeration System with Booster Hot Gas Bypass in Tropical Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santosa, I. D. M. C.; Sudirman; Waisnawa, IGNS; Sunu, PW; Temaja, IW

    2018-01-01

    A Simulation computer becomes significant important for performance analysis since there is high cost and time allocation to build an experimental rig, especially for CO2 refrigeration system. Besides, to modify the rig also need additional cos and time. One of computer program simulation that is very eligible to refrigeration system is Engineering Equation System (EES). In term of CO2 refrigeration system, environmental issues becomes priority on the refrigeration system development since the Carbon dioxide (CO2) is natural and clean refrigerant. This study aims is to analysis the EES simulation effectiveness to perform CO2 transcritical refrigeration system with booster hot gas bypass in high outdoor temperature. The research was carried out by theoretical study and numerical analysis of the refrigeration system using the EES program. Data input and simulation validation were obtained from experimental and secondary data. The result showed that the coefficient of performance (COP) decreased gradually with the outdoor temperature variation increasing. The results show the program can calculate the performance of the refrigeration system with quick running time and accurate. So, it will be significant important for the preliminary reference to improve the CO2 refrigeration system design for the hot climate temperature.

  12. How good are the simulations of tropical SST–rainfall relationship by ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    satisfactory (Kumar and Hoerling 1998). Wang et al (2005) attributed the inability of. AGCMs to simulate interannual variability of the summer monsoon rainfall to their inability in sim- ulating the special nature of SST–rainfall relation- ship over regions such as the West Pacific Ocean,. Bay of Bengal and South China Sea.

  13. How well do CMIP5 models simulate the low-level jet in western Colombia?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sierra, Juan P.; Arias, Paola A.; Vieira, Sara C.; Agudelo, Jhoana

    2017-11-01

    The Choco jet is an important atmospheric feature of Colombian and northern South America hydro-climatology. This work assesses the ability of 26 coupled and 11 uncoupled (AMIP) global climate models (GCMs) included in the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) archive to simulate the climatological basic features (annual cycle, spatial distribution and vertical structure) of this jet. Using factor and cluster analysis, we objectively classify models in Best, Worst, and Intermediate groups. Despite the coarse resolution of the GCMs, this study demonstrates that nearly all models can represent the existence of the Choco low-level jet. AMIP and Best models present a more realistic simulation of jet. Worst models exhibit biases such as an anomalous southward location of the Choco jet during the whole year and a shallower jet. The model skill to represent this jet comes from their ability to reproduce some of its main causes, such as the temperature and pressure differences between particular regions in the eastern Pacific and western Colombian lands, which are non-local features. Conversely, Worst models considerably underestimate temperature and pressure differences between these key regions. We identify a close relationship between the location of the Choco jet and the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), and CMIP5 models are able to represent such relationship. Errors in Worst models are related with bias in the location of the ITCZ over the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, as well as the representation of the topography and the horizontal resolution.

  14. Nuclear reactor core modelling in multifunctional simulators

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Puska, E.K. [VTT Energy, Nuclear Energy, Espoo (Finland)

    1999-06-01

    The thesis concentrates on the development of nuclear reactor core models for the APROS multifunctional simulation environment and the use of the core models in various kinds of applications. The work was started in 1986 as a part of the development of the entire APROS simulation system. The aim was to create core models that would serve in a reliable manner in an interactive, modular and multifunctional simulator/plant analyser environment. One-dimensional and three-dimensional core neutronics models have been developed. Both models have two energy groups and six delayed neutron groups. The three-dimensional finite difference type core model is able to describe both BWR- and PWR-type cores with quadratic fuel assemblies and VVER-type cores with hexagonal fuel assemblies. The one- and three-dimensional core neutronics models can be connected with the homogeneous, the five-equation or the six-equation thermal hydraulic models of APROS. The key feature of APROS is that the same physical models can be used in various applications. The nuclear reactor core models of APROS have been built in such a manner that the same models can be used in simulator and plant analyser applications, as well as in safety analysis. In the APROS environment the user can select the number of flow channels in the three-dimensional reactor core and either the homogeneous, the five- or the six-equation thermal hydraulic model for these channels. The thermal hydraulic model and the number of flow channels have a decisive effect on the calculation time of the three-dimensional core model and thus, at present, these particular selections make the major difference between a safety analysis core model and a training simulator core model. The emphasis on this thesis is on the three-dimensional core model and its capability to analyse symmetric and asymmetric events in the core. The factors affecting the calculation times of various three-dimensional BWR, PWR and WWER-type APROS core models have been

  15. Alleviating tropical Atlantic sector biases in the Kiel climate model by enhancing horizontal and vertical atmosphere model resolution: climatology and interannual variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harlaß, Jan; Latif, Mojib; Park, Wonsun

    2018-04-01

    We investigate the quality of simulating tropical Atlantic (TA) sector climatology and interannual variability in integrations of the Kiel climate model (KCM) with varying atmosphere model resolution. The ocean model resolution is kept fixed. A reasonable simulation of TA sector annual-mean climate, seasonal cycle and interannual variability can only be achieved at sufficiently high horizontal and vertical atmospheric resolution. Two major reasons for the improvements are identified. First, the western equatorial Atlantic westerly surface wind bias in spring can be largely eliminated, which is explained by a better representation of meridional and especially vertical zonal momentum transport. The enhanced atmospheric circulation along the equator in turn greatly improves the thermal structure of the upper equatorial Atlantic with much reduced warm sea surface temperature (SST) biases. Second, the coastline in the southeastern TA and steep orography are better resolved at high resolution, which improves wind structure and in turn reduces warm SST biases in the Benguela upwelling region. The strongly diminished wind and SST biases at high atmosphere model resolution allow for a more realistic latitudinal position of the intertropical convergence zone. Resulting stronger cross-equatorial winds, in conjunction with a shallower thermocline, enable a rapid cold tongue development in the eastern TA in boreal spring. This enables simulation of realistic interannual SST variability and its seasonal phase locking in the KCM, which primarily is the result of a stronger thermocline feedback. Our findings suggest that enhanced atmospheric resolution, both vertical and horizontal, could be a key to achieving more realistic simulation of TA climatology and interannual variability in climate models.

  16. Influence of landscape heterogeneity on water available to tropical forests in an Amazonian catchment and implications for modeling drought response

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, Yilin; Leung, L. Ruby; Duan, Zhuoran; Wigmosta, Mark S.; Maxwell, Reed M.; Chambers, Jeffrey Q.; Tomasella, Javier

    2017-08-01

    The Amazon basin has experienced periodic droughts in the past, and intense and frequent droughts are predicted in the future. Landscape heterogeneity could play an important role in how tropical forests respond to drought by influencing water available to plants. Using the one-dimensional ACME Land Model and the three-dimensional ParFlow variably saturated flow model, numerical experiments were performed for a catchment in central Amazon to elucidate processes that influence water available for plant use and provide insights for improving Earth system models. Results from ParFlow show that topography has a dominant influence on groundwater table and runoff through lateral flow. Without any representations of lateral processes, ALM simulates very different seasonal variations in groundwater table and runoff compared to ParFlow even if it is able to reproduce the long-term spatial average groundwater table of ParFlow through simple parameter calibration. In the ParFlow simulations, even in the plateau with much deeper water table depth during the dry season in the drought year of 2005, plant transpiration is not water stressed as the soil saturation is still sufficient for the stomata to be fully open based on the empirical wilting formulation in the models. This finding is insensitive to uncertainty in atmospheric forcing and soil parameters, but the empirical wilting formulation is an important factor that should be addressed using observations and modeling of coupled plant hydraulics-soil hydrology processes in future studies. The results could be applicable to other catchments in the Amazon basin with similar seasonal variability and hydrologic regimes.

  17. Kanban simulation model for production process optimization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Golchev Riste

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available A long time has passed since the KANBAN system has been established as an efficient method for coping with the excessive inventory. Still, the possibilities for its improvement through its integration with other different approaches should be investigated further. The basic research challenge of this paper is to present benefits of KANBAN implementation supported with Discrete Event Simulation (DES. In that direction, at the beginning, the basics of KANBAN system are presented with emphasis on the information and material flow, together with a methodology for implementation of KANBAN system. Certain analysis on combining the simulation with this methodology is presented. The paper is concluded with a practical example which shows that through understanding the philosophy of the implementation methodology of KANBAN system and the simulation methodology, a simulation model can be created which can serve as a basis for a variety of experiments that can be conducted within a short period of time, resulting with production process optimization.

  18. Vermont Yankee simulator BOP model upgrade

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alejandro, R.; Udbinac, M.J.

    2006-01-01

    The Vermont Yankee simulator has undergone significant changes in the 20 years since the original order was placed. After the move from the original Unix to MS Windows environment, and upgrade to the latest version of SimPort, now called MASTER, the platform was set for an overhaul and replacement of major plant system models. Over a period of a few months, the VY simulator team, in partnership with WSC engineers, replaced outdated legacy models of the main steam, condenser, condensate, circulating water, feedwater and feedwater heaters, and main turbine and auxiliaries. The timing was ideal, as the plant was undergoing a power up-rate, so the opportunity was taken to replace the legacy models with industry-leading, true on-line object oriented graphical models. Due to the efficiency of design and ease of use of the MASTER tools, VY staff performed the majority of the modeling work themselves with great success, with only occasional assistance from WSC, in a relatively short time-period, despite having to maintain all of their 'regular' simulator maintenance responsibilities. This paper will provide a more detailed view of the VY simulator, including how it is used and how it has benefited from the enhancements and upgrades implemented during the project. (author)

  19. The Influence of Volcanic Eruptions on the Climate of Tropical South America During the Last Millennium in an Isotope-Enabled General Circulation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colose, Christopher M.; LeGrande, Allegra N.; Vuille, Mathias

    2016-01-01

    Currently, little is known on how volcanic eruptions impact large-scale climate phenomena such as South American paleo-intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) position and summer monsoon behavior. In this paper, an analysis of observations and model simulations is employed to assess the influence of large volcanic eruptions on the climate of tropical South America. This problem is first considered for historically recent volcanic episodes for which more observations are available but where fewer events exist and the confounding effects of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) lead to inconclusive interpretation of the impact of volcanic eruptions at the continental scale. Therefore, we also examine a greater number of reconstructed volcanic events for the period 850 CE to present that are incorporated into the NASA GISS ModelE2-R simulation of the last millennium. An advantage of this model is its ability to explicitly track water isotopologues throughout the hydrologic cycle and simulating the isotopic imprint following a large eruption. This effectively removes a degree of uncertainty associated with error-prone conversion of isotopic signals into climate variables, and allows for a direct comparison between GISS simulations and paleoclimate proxy records. Our analysis reveals that both precipitation and oxygen isotope variability respond with a distinct seasonal and spatial structure across tropical South America following an eruption. During austral winter, the heavy oxygen isotope in precipitation is enriched, likely due to reduced moisture convergence in the ITCZ domain and reduced rainfall over northern South America. During austral summer, however, more negative values of the precipitation isotopic composition are simulated over Amazonia, despite reductions in rainfall, suggesting that the isotopic response is not a simple function of the "amount effect". During the South American monsoon season, the amplitude of the temperature response to volcanic forcing is

  20. Supplement of: The Influence of Volcanic Eruptions on the Climate of Tropical South America During the Last Millennium in an Isotope-Enabled General Circulation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colose, Christopher; LeGrande, Allegra N.; Vuille, Mathias

    2016-01-01

    Currently, little is known on how volcanic eruptions impact large-scale climate phenomena such as South American paleo-intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) position and summer monsoon behavior. In this paper, an analysis of observations and model simulations is employed to assess the influence of large volcanic eruptions on the climate of tropical South America. This problem is first considered for historically recent volcanic episodes for which more observations are available but where fewer events exist and the confounding effects of El NioSouthern Oscillation (ENSO) lead to inconclusive interpretation of the impact of volcanic eruptions at the continental scale. Therefore, we also examine a greater number of reconstructed volcanic events for the period 850CE to present that are incorporated into the NASA GISS ModelE2-R simulation of the last millennium.An advantage of this model is its ability to explicitly track water isotopologues throughout the hydrologic cycle and simulating the isotopic imprint following a large eruption. This effectively removes a degree of uncertainty associated with error-prone conversion of isotopic signals into climate variables, and allows for a direct comparison between GISS simulations and paleoclimate proxy records.Our analysis reveals that both precipitation and oxygen isotope variability respond with a distinct seasonal and spatial structure across tropical South America following an eruption. During austral winter, the heavy oxygen isotope in precipitation is enriched, likely due to reduced moisture convergence in the ITCZ domain and reduced rainfall over northern South America. During austral summer, however, more negative values of the precipitation isotopic composition are simulated over Amazonia, despite reductions in rainfall, suggesting that the isotopic response is not a simple function of the amount effect. During the South American monsoon season, the amplitude of the temperature response to volcanic forcing is larger

  1. Calculation of Individual Tree Water Use in a Bornean Tropical Rain Forest Using Individual-Based Dynamic Vegetation Model SEIB-DGVM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakai, T.; Kumagai, T.; Saito, T.; Matsumoto, K.; Kume, T.; Nakagawa, M.; Sato, H.

    2015-12-01

    Bornean tropical rain forests are among the moistest biomes of the world with abundant rainfall throughout the year, and considered to be vulnerable to a change in the rainfall regime; e.g., high tree mortality was reported in such forests induced by a severe drought associated with the ENSO event in 1997-1998. In order to assess the effect (risk) of future climate change on eco-hydrology in such tropical rain forests, it is important to understand the water use of trees individually, because the vulnerability or mortality of trees against climate change can depend on the size of trees. Therefore, we refined the Spatially Explicit Individual-Based Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (SEIB-DGVM) so that the transpiration and its control by stomata are calculated for each individual tree. By using this model, we simulated the transpiration of each tree and its DBH-size dependency, and successfully reproduced the measured data of sap flow of trees and eddy covariance flux data obtained in a Bornean lowland tropical rain forest in Lambir Hills National Park, Sarawak, Malaysia.

  2. Cirrus and water vapor transport in the tropical tropopause layer – Part 1: A specific case modeling study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Dinh

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available In a simulation of a tropical-tropopause-layer (TTL cirrus forced by a large-scale equatorial Kelvin wave, the radiatively induced mesoscale dynamics of the cloud actively contributes to the transport of water vapor in the vertical direction.

    In a typical TTL cirrus, the heating that results from absorption of radiation by ice crystals induces a mesoscale circulation. Advection of water vapor by the radiatively induced circulation leads to upward advection of the cloudy air. Upward advection of the cloudy air is equivalent to upward transport of water vapor when the air above the cloud is drier than the cloudy air. On the other hand, ice nucleation and depositional growth, followed by sedimentation and sublimation lead to downward transport of water vapor.

    Under the conditions specific to our simulation, the upward transport of water vapor by the mesoscale circulation dominates the downward transport by microphysical processes. The net result is upward transport of water vapor, which is equivalent to hydration of the lower stratosphere. Sensitivity to model conditions and parameters will be discussed in a follow-up paper.

  3. Land-use change in oil palm dominated tropical landscapes-An agent-based model to explore ecological and socio-economic trade-offs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dislich, Claudia; Hettig, Elisabeth; Salecker, Jan; Heinonen, Johannes; Lay, Jann; Meyer, Katrin M; Wiegand, Kerstin; Tarigan, Suria

    2018-01-01

    Land-use changes have dramatically transformed tropical landscapes. We describe an ecological-economic land-use change model as an integrated, exploratory tool used to analyze how tropical land-use change affects ecological and socio-economic functions. The model analysis seeks to determine what kind of landscape mosaic can improve the ensemble of ecosystem functioning, biodiversity, and economic benefit based on the synergies and trade-offs that we have to account for. More specifically, (1) how do specific ecosystem functions, such as carbon storage, and economic functions, such as household consumption, relate to each other? (2) How do external factors, such as the output prices of crops, affect these relationships? (3) How do these relationships change when production inefficiency differs between smallholder farmers and learning is incorporated? We initialize the ecological-economic model with artificially generated land-use maps parameterized to our study region. The economic sub-model simulates smallholder land-use management decisions based on a profit maximization assumption. Each household determines factor inputs for all household fields and decides on land-use change based on available wealth. The ecological sub-model includes a simple account of carbon sequestration in above-ground and below-ground vegetation. We demonstrate model capabilities with results on household consumption and carbon sequestration from different output price and farming efficiency scenarios. The overall results reveal complex interactions between the economic and ecological spheres. For instance, model scenarios with heterogeneous crop-specific household productivity reveal a comparatively high inertia of land-use change. Our model analysis even shows such an increased temporal stability in landscape composition and carbon stocks of the agricultural area under dynamic price trends. These findings underline the utility of ecological-economic models, such as ours, to act as

  4. Introducing tropical lianas in a vegetation model, methods and first results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verbeeck, Hans; di Porcia, Manfredo; Kearsley, Elizabeth; Longo, Marcos

    2017-04-01

    Lianas are an important component of tropical forests, commonly constituting up to 40% of the woody stems and about 35% of the woody species and contributing substantially to forest leaf biomass. Lianas compete strongly with trees for both above- and below-ground resources. Their indirect impact on the carbon balance, due to their influence on tree community dynamics (by increasing mortality and suppressing tree growth), is far larger than their direct contribution to biomass. Currently tropical forests are experiencing large-scale structural changes, including an increase in liana abundance and biomass. This may eventually reduce the projected carbon sink of tropical forests. Despite their crucial role no single terrestrial ecosystem model has included lianas so far. The goal of this work is to include lianas in a vegetation model and to test it against experimental data. For the purpose we chose ED2 (Ecosystem Demography model version 2), a model that occupies the midpoint on the continuum from gap models that contain individual trees, to area-based global models. ED2 explicitly tracks horizontal and vertical heterogeneity in canopy structure making it very suitable to study liana impacts at a large scale. At the same time, the very inner structure of the model, that is its spatial implicitness, constraints the programming design of this new liana PFT. The first part of the presentation will focus on the current representation of lianas in ED2 and the parameterization that has been used. We will provide reference to the available literature to justify the choices made for parameters and allometries. In the second part first results will be shown where we compare the output of the model with data collected in the Paracou site (French Guiana). The data comes from both inventories and fluxtowers. We will focus mainly on plant density, diameter distributions (demography) and carbon/water fluxes. By comparing runs starting from bare ground, rus starting from observed

  5. Improved allometric models to estimate the aboveground biomass of tropical trees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chave, Jérôme; Réjou-Méchain, Maxime; Búrquez, Alberto; Chidumayo, Emmanuel; Colgan, Matthew S; Delitti, Welington B C; Duque, Alvaro; Eid, Tron; Fearnside, Philip M; Goodman, Rosa C; Henry, Matieu; Martínez-Yrízar, Angelina; Mugasha, Wilson A; Muller-Landau, Helene C; Mencuccini, Maurizio; Nelson, Bruce W; Ngomanda, Alfred; Nogueira, Euler M; Ortiz-Malavassi, Edgar; Pélissier, Raphaël; Ploton, Pierre; Ryan, Casey M; Saldarriaga, Juan G; Vieilledent, Ghislain

    2014-10-01

    Terrestrial carbon stock mapping is important for the successful implementation of climate change mitigation policies. Its accuracy depends on the availability of reliable allometric models to infer oven-dry aboveground biomass of trees from census data. The degree of uncertainty associated with previously published pantropical aboveground biomass allometries is large. We analyzed a global database of directly harvested trees at 58 sites, spanning a wide range of climatic conditions and vegetation types (4004 trees ≥ 5 cm trunk diameter). When trunk diameter, total tree height, and wood specific gravity were included in the aboveground biomass model as covariates, a single model was found to hold across tropical vegetation types, with no detectable effect of region or environmental factors. The mean percent bias and variance of this model was only slightly higher than that of locally fitted models. Wood specific gravity was an important predictor of aboveground biomass, especially when including a much broader range of vegetation types than previous studies. The generic tree diameter-height relationship depended linearly on a bioclimatic stress variable E, which compounds indices of temperature variability, precipitation variability, and drought intensity. For cases in which total tree height is unavailable for aboveground biomass estimation, a pantropical model incorporating wood density, trunk diameter, and the variable E outperformed previously published models without height. However, to minimize bias, the development of locally derived diameter-height relationships is advised whenever possible. Both new allometric models should contribute to improve the accuracy of biomass assessment protocols in tropical vegetation types, and to advancing our understanding of architectural and evolutionary constraints on woody plant development. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  6. TRANSFORM - TRANsient Simulation Framework of Reconfigurable Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2017-09-01

    Existing development tools for early stage design and scoping of energy systems are often time consuming to use, proprietary, and do not contain the necessary function to model complete systems (i.e., controls, primary, and secondary systems) in a common platform. The Modelica programming language based TRANSFORM tool (1) provides a standardized, common simulation environment for early design of energy systems (i.e., power plants), (2) provides a library of baseline component modules to be assembled into full plant models using available geometry, design, and thermal-hydraulic data, (3) defines modeling conventions for interconnecting component models, and (4) establishes user interfaces and support tools to facilitate simulation development (i.e., configuration and parameterization), execution, and results display and capture.

  7. Genesis of Twin Tropical Cyclones as Revealed by a Global Mesoscale Model: The Role of Mixed Rossby Gravity Waves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Bo-Wen; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Lin, Yuh-Lang; Laing, Arlene

    2012-01-01

    In this study, it is proposed that twin tropical cyclones (TCs), Kesiny and 01A, in May 2002 formed in association with the scale interactions of three gyres that appeared as a convectively coupled mixed Rossby gravity (ccMRG) wave during an active phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). This is shown by analyzing observational data, including NCEP reanalysis data and METEOSAT 7 IR satellite imagery, and performing numerical simulations using a global mesoscale model. A 10-day control run is initialized at 0000 UTC 1 May 2002 with grid-scale condensation but no sub-grid cumulus parameterizations. The ccMRG wave was identified as encompassing two developing and one non-developing gyres, the first two of which intensified and evolved into the twin TCs. The control run is able to reproduce the evolution of the ccMRG wave and thus the formation of the twin TCs about two and five days in advance as well as their subsequent intensity evolution and movement within an 8-10 day period. Five additional 10-day sensitivity experiments with different model configurations are conducted to help understand the interaction of the three gyres, leading to the formation of the TCs. These experiments suggest the improved lead time in the control run may be attributed to the realistic simulation of the ccMRG wave with the following processes: (1) wave deepening (intensification) associated with a reduction in wavelength and/or the intensification of individual gyres, (2) poleward movement of gyres that may be associated with boundary layer processes, (3) realistic simulation of moist processes at regional scales in association with each of the gyres, and (4) the vertical phasing of low- and mid-level cyclonic circulations associated with a specific gyre.

  8. Biological transportation networks: Modeling and simulation

    KAUST Repository

    Albi, Giacomo

    2015-09-15

    We present a model for biological network formation originally introduced by Cai and Hu [Adaptation and optimization of biological transport networks, Phys. Rev. Lett. 111 (2013) 138701]. The modeling of fluid transportation (e.g., leaf venation and angiogenesis) and ion transportation networks (e.g., neural networks) is explained in detail and basic analytical features like the gradient flow structure of the fluid transportation network model and the impact of the model parameters on the geometry and topology of network formation are analyzed. We also present a numerical finite-element based discretization scheme and discuss sample cases of network formation simulations.

  9. A universal simulator for ecological models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holst, Niels

    2013-01-01

    Software design is an often neglected issue in ecological models, even though bad software design often becomes a hindrance for re-using, sharing and even grasping an ecological model. In this paper, the methodology of agile software design was applied to the domain of ecological models. Thus...... the principles for a universal design of ecological models were arrived at. To exemplify this design, the open-source software Universal Simulator was constructed using C++ and XML and is provided as a resource for inspiration....

  10. Object Oriented Modelling and Dynamical Simulation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wagner, Falko Jens; Poulsen, Mikael Zebbelin

    1998-01-01

    This report with appendix describes the work done in master project at DTU.The goal of the project was to develop a concept for simulation of dynamical systems based on object oriented methods.The result was a library of C++-classes, for use when both building componentbased models and when...

  11. preliminary multidomain modelling and simulation study

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    user

    PRELIMINARY MULTIDOMAIN MODELLING AND SIMULATION STUDY OF A. HORIZONTAL AXIS WIND TURBINE (HAWT) TOWER VIBRATION. I. lliyasu1, I. Iliyasu2, I. K. Tanimu3 and D. O Obada4. 1,4 DEPARTMENT OF MECHANICAL ENGINEERING, AHMADU BELLO UNIVERSITY, ZARIA, KADUNA STATE. NIGERIA.

  12. Reproducibility in Computational Neuroscience Models and Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDougal, Robert A.; Bulanova, Anna S.; Lytton, William W.

    2016-01-01

    Objective Like all scientific research, computational neuroscience research must be reproducible. Big data science, including simulation research, cannot depend exclusively on journal articles as the method to provide the sharing and transparency required for reproducibility. Methods Ensuring model reproducibility requires the use of multiple standard software practices and tools, including version control, strong commenting and documentation, and code modularity. Results Building on these standard practices, model sharing sites and tools have been developed that fit into several categories: 1. standardized neural simulators, 2. shared computational resources, 3. declarative model descriptors, ontologies and standardized annotations; 4. model sharing repositories and sharing standards. Conclusion A number of complementary innovations have been proposed to enhance sharing, transparency and reproducibility. The individual user can be encouraged to make use of version control, commenting, documentation and modularity in development of models. The community can help by requiring model sharing as a condition of publication and funding. Significance Model management will become increasingly important as multiscale models become larger, more detailed and correspondingly more difficult to manage by any single investigator or single laboratory. Additional big data management complexity will come as the models become more useful in interpreting experiments, thus increasing the need to ensure clear alignment between modeling data, both parameters and results, and experiment. PMID:27046845

  13. Thermohydraulic modeling and simulation of breeder reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Agrawal, A.K.; Khatib-Rahbar, M.; Curtis, R.T.; Hetrick, D.L.; Girijashankar, P.V.

    1982-01-01

    This paper deals with the modeling and simulation of system-wide transients in LMFBRs. Unprotected events (i.e., the presumption of failure of the plant protection system) leading to core-melt are not considered in this paper. The existing computational capabilities in the area of protected transients in the US are noted. Various physical and numerical approximations that are made in these codes are discussed. Finally, the future direction in the area of model verification and improvements is discussed

  14. A downscaling technique to simulate changes in western North Pacific tropical cyclone activity between two types of El Niño events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Haikun

    2016-02-01

    Changes in tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the western North Pacific (WNP) basin between the Modoki and canonical El Niño years have been simulated and examined in this study based on a downscaling technique. The downscaling technique is used for generating synthetic TCs based on TC formation, TC track, and TC intensity models. Results suggest that the downscaling technique can well simulate the spatial distribution of TC activity during the two types of El Niño years and their differences. It is found that the observed changes in TC tracks during the two types of El Niño years are mainly due to the combined effects of changes in TC formation locations and large-scale steering flows. Further examinations have shown that changes in large-scale steering flows play a more important role than changes in TC formation locations. These results are in accordance with the cyclonic circulation anomaly found during the Modoki El Niño years compared to that during the canonical El Niño years. Numerical simulations further suggest that changes in TC tracks between the two types of El Niño years appear to be the most important factor affecting the TC intensity change. Compared to that during the Modoki El Niño years, TC formation is enhanced in the south quadrant of the WNP basin and more TCs take a northwestward track during the canonical El Niño years, leading to a longer TC lifespan and greater TC intensity.

  15. Evaluating the Credibility of Transport Processes in the Global Modeling Initiative 3D Model Simulations of Ozone Recovery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strahan, Susan E.; Douglass, Anne R.

    2003-01-01

    The Global Modeling Initiative has integrated two 35-year simulations of an ozone recovery scenario with an offline chemistry and transport model using two different meteorological inputs. Physically based diagnostics, derived from satellite and aircraft data sets, are described and then used to evaluate the realism of temperature and transport processes in the simulations. Processes evaluated include barrier formation in the subtropics and polar regions, and extratropical wave-driven transport. Some diagnostics are especially relevant to simulation of lower stratospheric ozone, but most are applicable to any stratospheric simulation. The temperature evaluation, which is relevant to gas phase chemical reactions, showed that both sets of meteorological fields have near climatological values at all latitudes and seasons at 30 hPa and below. Both simulations showed weakness in upper stratospheric wave driving. The simulation using input from a general circulation model (GMI(sub GCM)) showed a very good residual circulation in the tropics and northern hemisphere. The simulation with input from a data assimilation system (GMI(sub DAS)) performed better in the midlatitudes than at high latitudes. Neither simulation forms a realistic barrier at the vortex edge, leading to uncertainty in the fate of ozone-depleted vortex air. Overall, tracer transport in the offline GMI(sub GCM) has greater fidelity throughout the stratosphere than the GMI(sub DAS).

  16. Twitter's tweet method modelling and simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarlis, Apostolos S.; Sakas, Damianos P.; Vlachos, D. S.

    2015-02-01

    This paper seeks to purpose the concept of Twitter marketing methods. The tools that Twitter provides are modelled and simulated using iThink in the context of a Twitter media-marketing agency. The paper has leveraged the system's dynamic paradigm to conduct Facebook marketing tools and methods modelling, using iThink™ system to implement them. It uses the design science research methodology for the proof of concept of the models and modelling processes. The following models have been developed for a twitter marketing agent/company and tested in real circumstances and with real numbers. These models were finalized through a number of revisions and iterators of the design, develop, simulate, test and evaluate. It also addresses these methods that suit most organized promotion through targeting, to the Twitter social media service. The validity and usefulness of these Twitter marketing methods models for the day-to-day decision making are authenticated by the management of the company organization. It implements system dynamics concepts of Twitter marketing methods modelling and produce models of various Twitter marketing situations. The Tweet method that Twitter provides can be adjusted, depending on the situation, in order to maximize the profit of the company/agent.

  17. Advances in NLTE modeling for integrated simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott, H. A.; Hansen, S. B.

    2010-01-01

    The last few years have seen significant progress in constructing the atomic models required for non-local thermodynamic equilibrium (NLTE) simulations. Along with this has come an increased understanding of the requirements for accurately modeling the ionization balance, energy content and radiative properties of different atomic species for a wide range of densities and temperatures. Much of this progress is the result of a series of workshops dedicated to comparing the results from different codes and computational approaches applied to a series of test problems. The results of these workshops emphasized the importance of atomic model completeness, especially in doubly-excited states and autoionization transitions, to calculating ionization balance, and the importance of accurate, detailed atomic data to producing reliable spectra. We describe a simple screened-hydrogenic model that calculates NLTE ionization balance with sufficient accuracy, at a low enough computational cost for routine use in radiation-hydrodynamics codes. The model incorporates term splitting, Δ n = 0 transitions, and approximate UTA widths for spectral calculations, with results comparable to those of much more detailed codes. Simulations done with this model have been increasingly successful at matching experimental data for laser-driven systems and hohlraums. Accurate and efficient atomic models are just one requirement for integrated NLTE simulations. Coupling the atomic kinetics to hydrodynamics and radiation transport constrains both discretizations and algorithms to retain energy conservation, accuracy and stability. In particular, the strong coupling between radiation and populations can require either very short time steps or significantly modified radiation transport algorithms to account for NLTE material response. Considerations such as these continue to provide challenges for NLTE simulations.

  18. Advances in NLTE Modeling for Integrated Simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scott, H.A.; Hansen, S.B.

    2009-01-01

    The last few years have seen significant progress in constructing the atomic models required for non-local thermodynamic equilibrium (NLTE) simulations. Along with this has come an increased understanding of the requirements for accurately modeling the ionization balance, energy content and radiative properties of different elements for a wide range of densities and temperatures. Much of this progress is the result of a series of workshops dedicated to comparing the results from different codes and computational approaches applied to a series of test problems. The results of these workshops emphasized the importance of atomic model completeness, especially in doubly excited states and autoionization transitions, to calculating ionization balance, and the importance of accurate, detailed atomic data to producing reliable spectra. We describe a simple screened-hydrogenic model that calculates NLTE ionization balance with surprising accuracy, at a low enough computational cost for routine use in radiation-hydrodynamics codes. The model incorporates term splitting, Δn = 0 transitions, and approximate UTA widths for spectral calculations, with results comparable to those of much more detailed codes. Simulations done with this model have been increasingly successful at matching experimental data for laser-driven systems and hohlraums. Accurate and efficient atomic models are just one requirement for integrated NLTE simulations. Coupling the atomic kinetics to hydrodynamics and radiation transport constrains both discretizations and algorithms to retain energy conservation, accuracy and stability. In particular, the strong coupling between radiation and populations can require either very short timesteps or significantly modified radiation transport algorithms to account for NLTE material response. Considerations such as these continue to provide challenges for NLTE simulations.

  19. The Impact of Different Absolute Solar Irradiance Values on Current Climate Model Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rind, David H.; Lean, Judith L.; Jonas, Jeffrey

    2014-01-01

    Simulations of the preindustrial and doubled CO2 climates are made with the GISS Global Climate Middle Atmosphere Model 3 using two different estimates of the absolute solar irradiance value: a higher value measured by solar radiometers in the 1990s and a lower value measured recently by the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment. Each of the model simulations is adjusted to achieve global energy balance; without this adjustment the difference in irradiance produces a global temperature change of 0.48C, comparable to the cooling estimated for the Maunder Minimum. The results indicate that by altering cloud cover the model properly compensates for the different absolute solar irradiance values on a global level when simulating both preindustrial and doubled CO2 climates. On a regional level, the preindustrial climate simulations and the patterns of change with doubled CO2 concentrations are again remarkably similar, but there are some differences. Using a higher absolute solar irradiance value and the requisite cloud cover affects the model's depictions of high-latitude surface air temperature, sea level pressure, and stratospheric ozone, as well as tropical precipitation. In the climate change experiments it leads to an underestimation of North Atlantic warming, reduced precipitation in the tropical western Pacific, and smaller total ozone growth at high northern latitudes. Although significant, these differences are typically modest compared with the magnitude of the regional changes expected for doubled greenhouse gas concentrations. Nevertheless, the model simulations demonstrate that achieving the highest possible fidelity when simulating regional climate change requires that climate models use as input the most accurate (lower) solar irradiance value.

  20. Atlantic tropical cyclones water budget in observations and CNRM-CM5 model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chauvin, Fabrice; Douville, Hervé; Ribes, Aurélien

    2017-12-01

    Water budgets in tropical cyclones (TCs) are computed in the ERA-interim (ERAI) re-analysis and the CNRM-CM5 model for the late 20th and 21st centuries. At a 6-hourly timescale and averaged over a 5° × 5° box around a TC center, the main contribution to rainfall is moisture convergence, with decreasing contribution of evaporation for increasing rainfall intensities. It is found that TC rainfall in ERAI and the model are underestimated when compared with the tropical rainfall measuring mission (TRMM), probably due to underestimated TC winds in ERAI vs. observed TCs. It is also found that relative increase in TC rainfall between the second half of the 20th and 21st centuries may surpass the rate of change suggested by the Clausius-Clapeyron formula. It may even reach twice this rate for reduced spatial domains corresponding to the highest cyclonic rainfall. This is in agreement with an expected positive feedback between TC rainfall intensity and dynamics.

  1. SIMULATION MODELING OF IT PROJECTS BASED ON PETRI NETS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Александр Михайлович ВОЗНЫЙ

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available An integrated simulation model of IT project based on a modified Petri net model that combines product and model of project tasks has been proposed. Substantive interpretation of the components of the simulation model has been presented, the process of simulation has been described. The conclusions about the integration of the product model and the model of works project were made.

  2. Biogeochemical mass balances in a turbid tropical reservoir. Field data and modelling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phuong Doan, Thuy Kim; Némery, Julien; Gratiot, Nicolas; Schmid, Martin

    2014-05-01

    The turbid tropical Cointzio reservoir, located in the Trans Mexican Volcanic Belt (TMVB), behaves as a warm monomictic water body (area = 6 km2, capacity 66 Mm3, residence time ~ 1 year). It is strategic for the drinking water supply of the city of Morelia, capital of the state of Michoacán, and for downstream irrigation during the dry season. This reservoir is a perfect example of a human-impacted system since its watershed is mainly composed of degraded volcanic soils and is subjected to high erosion processes and agricultural loss. The reservoir is threatened by sediment accumulation and nutrients originating from untreated waters in the upstream watershed. The high content of very fine clay particles and the lack of water treatment plants lead to serious episodes of eutrophication (up to 70 μg chl. a L-1), high levels of turbidity (Secchi depth water vertical profiles, reservoir inflow and outflow) we determined suspended sediment (SS), carbon (C), nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) mass balances. Watershed SS yields were estimated at 35 t km2 y-1 of which 89-92 % were trapped in the Cointzio reservoir. As a consequence the reservoir has already lost 25 % of its initial storage capacity since its construction in 1940. Nutrient mass balances showed that 50 % and 46 % of incoming P and N were retained by sedimentation, and mainly eliminated through denitrification respectively. Removal of C by 30 % was also observed both by sedimentation and through gas emission. To complete field data analyses we examined the ability of vertical one dimensional (1DV) numerical models (Aquasim biogeochemical model coupled with k-ɛ mixing model) to reproduce the main biogeochemical cycles in the Cointzio reservoir. The model can describe all the mineralization processes both in the water column and in the sediment. The values of the entire mass balance of nutrients and of the mineralization rates (denitrification and aerobic benthic mineralization) calculated from the model

  3. A parallel computational model for GATE simulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rannou, F R; Vega-Acevedo, N; El Bitar, Z

    2013-12-01

    GATE/Geant4 Monte Carlo simulations are computationally demanding applications, requiring thousands of processor hours to produce realistic results. The classical strategy of distributing the simulation of individual events does not apply efficiently for Positron Emission Tomography (PET) experiments, because it requires a centralized coincidence processing and large communication overheads. We propose a parallel computational model for GATE that handles event generation and coincidence processing in a simple and efficient way by decentralizing event generation and processing but maintaining a centralized event and time coordinator. The model is implemented with the inclusion of a new set of factory classes that can run the same executable in sequential or parallel mode. A Mann-Whitney test shows that the output produced by this parallel model in terms of number of tallies is equivalent (but not equal) to its sequential counterpart. Computational performance evaluation shows that the software is scalable and well balanced. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Modeling, simulation and optimization of bipedal walking

    CERN Document Server

    Berns, Karsten

    2013-01-01

    The model-based investigation of motions of anthropomorphic systems is an important interdisciplinary research topic involving specialists from many fields such as Robotics, Biomechanics, Physiology, Orthopedics, Psychology, Neurosciences, Sports, Computer Graphics and Applied Mathematics. This book presents a study of basic locomotion forms such as walking and running is of particular interest due to the high demand on dynamic coordination, actuator efficiency and balance control. Mathematical models and numerical simulation and optimization techniques are explained, in combination with experimental data, which can help to better understand the basic underlying mechanisms of these motions and to improve them. Example topics treated in this book are Modeling techniques for anthropomorphic bipedal walking systems Optimized walking motions for different objective functions Identification of objective functions from measurements Simulation and optimization approaches for humanoid robots Biologically inspired con...

  5. Multiphase reacting flows modelling and simulation

    CERN Document Server

    Marchisio, Daniele L

    2007-01-01

    The papers in this book describe the most widely applicable modeling approaches and are organized in six groups covering from fundamentals to relevant applications. In the first part, some fundamentals of multiphase turbulent reacting flows are covered. In particular the introduction focuses on basic notions of turbulence theory in single-phase and multi-phase systems as well as on the interaction between turbulence and chemistry. In the second part, models for the physical and chemical processes involved are discussed. Among other things, particular emphasis is given to turbulence modeling strategies for multiphase flows based on the kinetic theory for granular flows. Next, the different numerical methods based on Lagrangian and/or Eulerian schemes are presented. In particular the most popular numerical approaches of computational fluid dynamics codes are described (i.e., Direct Numerical Simulation, Large Eddy Simulation, and Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes approach). The book will cover particle-based meth...

  6. Fault diagnosis based on continuous simulation models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feyock, Stefan

    1987-01-01

    The results are described of an investigation of techniques for using continuous simulation models as basis for reasoning about physical systems, with emphasis on the diagnosis of system faults. It is assumed that a continuous simulation model of the properly operating system is available. Malfunctions are diagnosed by posing the question: how can we make the model behave like that. The adjustments that must be made to the model to produce the observed behavior usually provide definitive clues to the nature of the malfunction. A novel application of Dijkstra's weakest precondition predicate transformer is used to derive the preconditions for producing the required model behavior. To minimize the size of the search space, an envisionment generator based on interval mathematics was developed. In addition to its intended application, the ability to generate qualitative state spaces automatically from quantitative simulations proved to be a fruitful avenue of investigation in its own right. Implementations of the Dijkstra transform and the envisionment generator are reproduced in the Appendix.

  7. Numerical model simulation of atmospheric coolant plumes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gaillard, P.

    1980-01-01

    The effect of humid atmospheric coolants on the atmosphere is simulated by means of a three-dimensional numerical model. The atmosphere is defined by its natural vertical profiles of horizontal velocity, temperature, pressure and relative humidity. Effluent discharge is characterised by its vertical velocity and the temperature of air satured with water vapour. The subject of investigation is the area in the vicinity of the point of discharge, with due allowance for the wake effect of the tower and buildings and, where application, wind veer with altitude. The model equations express the conservation relationships for mometum, energy, total mass and water mass, for an incompressible fluid behaving in accordance with the Boussinesq assumptions. Condensation is represented by a simple thermodynamic model, and turbulent fluxes are simulated by introduction of turbulent viscosity and diffusivity data based on in-situ and experimental water model measurements. The three-dimensional problem expressed in terms of the primitive variables (u, v, w, p) is governed by an elliptic equation system which is solved numerically by application of an explicit time-marching algorithm in order to predict the steady-flow velocity distribution, temperature, water vapour concentration and the liquid-water concentration defining the visible plume. Windstill conditions are simulated by a program processing the elliptic equations in an axisymmetrical revolution coordinate system. The calculated visible plumes are compared with plumes observed on site with a view to validate the models [fr

  8. Impacts of convection schemes on simulating tropical-temperate troughs over southern Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Tozuka, T

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available of TTTs. Rather, it is related to excessive upper level convergence and associated subsidence over southern Africa. Furthermore, the model versions are shown to be successful in capturing the observed drier (wetter) conditions over the southern African...

  9. Effect of simulated microgravitation on phytohormones and cell structure of tropical orchids

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cherevchenko, T.; Zaimenko, N.; Majko, T.; Sytnjanskaja, N.

    When studing the effect of two month clinostating on the phytohormonal system of orchids with different types of shoot system branching and different shoot morphology, it was determined that, as a result of simulated microgravitation, endogenous growth regulators changed less in the species with sympodial branching than in species with monopodial branching and without pseudobulbs. Stimulators prevail in the balance of growth regulators in species of the first type and inhibitors in species of the second type. Besides this, comparative analysis of structural organization of juvenile leaf surface tissue of tested orchids was carried out. Variability of size, number and structure of stomatal organization were found according to species belonging to each branching type after clinostating. Electronic microscope studies show some structural peculiarities of epidermal and mesophilous cells.

  10. A Simulation Model for Extensor Tendon Repair

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elizabeth Aronstam

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Audience: This simulation model is designed for use by emergency medicine residents. Although we have instituted this at the PGY-2 level of our residency curriculum, it is appropriate for any level of emergency medicine residency training. It might also be adapted for use for a variety of other learners, such as practicing emergency physicians, orthopedic surgery residents, or hand surgery trainees. Introduction: Tendon injuries commonly present to the emergency department, so it is essential that emergency physicians be competent in evaluating such injuries. Indeed, extensor tendon repair is included as an ACGME Emergency Medicine Milestone (Milestone 13, Wound Management, Level 5 – “Performs advanced wound repairs, such as tendon repairs…”.1 However, emergency medicine residents may have limited opportunity to develop these skills due to a lack of patients, competition from other trainees, or preexisting referral patterns. Simulation may provide an alternative means to effectively teach these skills in such settings. Previously described tendon repair simulation models that were designed for surgical trainees have used rubber worms4, licorice5, feeding tubes, catheters6,7, drinking straws8, microfoam tape9, sheep forelimbs10 and cadavers.11 These models all suffer a variety of limitations, including high cost, lack of ready availability, or lack of realism. Objectives: We sought to develop an extensor tendon repair simulation model for emergency medicine residents, designed to meet ACGME Emergency Medicine Milestone 13, Level 5. We wished this model to be simple, inexpensive, and realistic. Methods: The learner responsible content/educational handout component of our innovation teaches residents about emergency department extensor tendon repair, and includes: 1 relevant anatomy 2 indications and contraindications for emergency department extensor tendon repair 3 physical exam findings 4 tendon suture techniques and 5 aftercare. During

  11. Responses of tropical legumes from the Brazilian Atlantic Rainforest to simulated acid rain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrade, Guilherme C; Silva, Luzimar C

    2017-07-01

    We investigated the morphological and anatomical effects of simulated acid rain on leaves of two species native to the Brazilian Atlantic Rainforest: Paubrasilia echinata and Libidibia ferrea var. leiostachya. Saplings were subjected to acid rain in a simulation chamber during 10 days for 15 min daily, using H 2 SO 4 solution pH 3.0 and, in the control, deionized water. At the end of the experiment, fragments from young and expanding leaves were anatomically analyzed. Although L. ferrea var. leiostachya leaves are more hydrophobic, rain droplets remained in contact with them for a longer time, as in the hydrophilic P. echinata leaves, droplets coalesce and rapidly run off. Visual symptomatology consisted in interveinal and marginal necrotic dots. Microscopic damage found included epicuticular wax flaking, turgor loss and epidermal cell shape alteration, hypertrophy of parenchymatous cells, and epidermal and mesophyll cell collapse. Formation of a wound tissue was observed in P. echinata, and it isolated the necrosis to the adaxial leaf surface. Acid rain increased thickness of all leaf tissues except spongy parenchyma in young leaves of L. ferrea var. leiostachya, and such thickness was maintained throughout leaf expansion. To our knowledge, this is the first report of acidity causing increase in leaf tissue thickness. This could represent the beginning of cell hypertrophy, which was seen in visually affected leaf regions. Paubrasilia echinata was more sensitive, showing earlier symptoms, but the anatomical damage in L. ferrea var. leiostachya was more severe, probably due to the higher time of contact with acid solution in this species.

  12. Modelling and simulation of thermal power plants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eborn, J.

    1998-02-01

    Mathematical modelling and simulation are important tools when dealing with engineering systems that today are becoming increasingly more complex. Integrated production and recycling of materials are trends that give rise to heterogenous systems, which are difficult to handle within one area of expertise. Model libraries are an excellent way to package engineering knowledge of systems and units to be reused by those who are not experts in modelling. Many commercial packages provide good model libraries, but they are usually domain-specific and closed. Heterogenous, multi-domain systems requires open model libraries written in general purpose modelling languages. This thesis describes a model database for thermal power plants written in the object-oriented modelling language OMOLA. The models are based on first principles. Subunits describe volumes with pressure and enthalpy dynamics and flows of heat or different media. The subunits are used to build basic units such as pumps, valves and heat exchangers which can be used to build system models. Several applications are described; a heat recovery steam generator, equipment for juice blending, steam generation in a sulphuric acid plant and a condensing steam plate heat exchanger. Model libraries for industrial use must be validated against measured data. The thesis describes how parameter estimation methods can be used for model validation. Results from a case-study on parameter optimization of a non-linear drum boiler model show how the technique can be used 32 refs, 21 figs

  13. Using a prescribed fire to test custom and standard fuel models for fire behaviour prediction in a non-native, grass-invaded tropical dry shrubland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrew D. Pierce; Sierra McDaniel; Mark Wasser; Alison Ainsworth; Creighton M. Litton; Christian P. Giardina; Susan Cordell; Ralf Ohlemuller

    2014-01-01

    Questions: Do fuel models developed for North American fuel types accurately represent fuel beds found in grass-invaded tropical shrublands? Do standard or custom fuel models for firebehavior models with in situ or RAWS measured fuel moistures affect the accuracy of predicted fire behavior in grass-invaded tropical shrublands? Location: Hawai’i Volcanoes National...

  14. Modeling and simulation of economic processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bogdan Brumar

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available In general, any activity requires a longer action often characterized by a degree of uncertainty, insecurity, in terms of size of the objective pursued. Because of the complexity of real economic systems, the stochastic dependencies between different variables and parameters considered, not all systems can be adequately represented by a model that can be solved by analytical methods and covering all issues for management decision analysis-economic horizon real. Often in such cases, it is considered that the simulation technique is the only alternative available. Using simulation techniques to study real-world systems often requires a laborious work. Making a simulation experiment is a process that takes place in several stages.

  15. Simulation as a surgical teaching model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruiz-Gómez, José Luis; Martín-Parra, José Ignacio; González-Noriega, Mónica; Redondo-Figuero, Carlos Godofredo; Manuel-Palazuelos, José Carlos

    2018-01-01

    Teaching of surgery has been affected by many factors over the last years, such as the reduction of working hours, the optimization of the use of the operating room or patient safety. Traditional teaching methodology fails to reduce the impact of these factors on surgeońs training. Simulation as a teaching model minimizes such impact, and is more effective than traditional teaching methods for integrating knowledge and clinical-surgical skills. Simulation complements clinical assistance with training, creating a safe learning environment where patient safety is not affected, and ethical or legal conflicts are avoided. Simulation uses learning methodologies that allow teaching individualization, adapting it to the learning needs of each student. It also allows training of all kinds of technical, cognitive or behavioural skills. Copyright © 2017 AEC. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  16. Mathematical models and numerical simulation in electromagnetism

    CERN Document Server

    Bermúdez, Alfredo; Salgado, Pilar

    2014-01-01

    The book represents a basic support for a master course in electromagnetism oriented to numerical simulation. The main goal of the book is that the reader knows the boundary-value problems of partial differential equations that should be solved in order to perform computer simulation of electromagnetic processes. Moreover it includes a part devoted to electric circuit theory  based on ordinary differential equations. The book is mainly oriented to electric engineering applications, going from the general to the specific, namely, from the full Maxwell’s equations to the particular cases of electrostatics, direct current, magnetostatics and eddy currents models. Apart from standard exercises related to analytical calculus, the book includes some others oriented to real-life applications solved with MaxFEM free simulation software.

  17. Influence of daily versus monthly fire emissions on atmospheric model applications in the tropics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marlier, M. E.; Voulgarakis, A.; Faluvegi, G.; Shindell, D. T.; DeFries, R. S.

    2012-12-01

    Fires are widely used throughout the tropics to create and maintain areas for agriculture, but are also significant contributors to atmospheric trace gas and aerosol concentrations. However, the timing and magnitude of fire activity can vary strongly by year and ecosystem type. For example, frequent, low intensity fires dominate in African savannas whereas Southeast Asian peatland forests are susceptible to huge pulses of emissions during regional El Niño droughts. Despite the potential implications for modeling interactions with atmospheric chemistry and transport, fire emissions have commonly been input into global models at a monthly resolution. Recognizing the uncertainty that this can introduce, several datasets have parsed fire emissions to daily and sub-daily scales with satellite active fire detections. In this study, we explore differences between utilizing the monthly and daily Global Fire Emissions Database version 3 (GFED3) products as inputs into the NASA GISS-E2 composition climate model. We aim to understand how the choice of the temporal resolution of fire emissions affects uncertainty with respect to several common applications of global models: atmospheric chemistry, air quality, and climate. Focusing our analysis on tropical ozone, carbon monoxide, and aerosols, we compare modeled concentrations with available ground and satellite observations. We find that increasing the temporal frequency of fire emissions from monthly to daily can improve correlations with observations, predominately in areas or during seasons more heavily affected by fires. Differences between the two datasets are more evident with public health applications: daily resolution fire emissions increases the number of days exceeding World Health Organization air quality targets.

  18. Facebook's personal page modelling and simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarlis, Apostolos S.; Sakas, Damianos P.; Vlachos, D. S.

    2015-02-01

    In this paper we will try to define the utility of Facebook's Personal Page marketing method. This tool that Facebook provides, is modelled and simulated using iThink in the context of a Facebook marketing agency. The paper has leveraged the system's dynamic paradigm to conduct Facebook marketing tools and methods modelling, using iThink™ system to implement them. It uses the design science research methodology for the proof of concept of the models and modelling processes. The following model has been developed for a social media marketing agent/company, Facebook platform oriented and tested in real circumstances. This model is finalized through a number of revisions and iterators of the design, development, simulation, testing and evaluation processes. The validity and usefulness of this Facebook marketing model for the day-to-day decision making are authenticated by the management of the company organization. Facebook's Personal Page method can be adjusted, depending on the situation, in order to maximize the total profit of the company which is to bring new customers, keep the interest of the old customers and deliver traffic to its website.

  19. Modeling and simulation of photovoltaic solar panel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Belarbi, M.; Haddouche, K.; Midoun, A.

    2006-01-01

    In this article, we present a new approach for estimating the model parameters of a photovoltaic solar panel according to the irradiance and temperature. The parameters of the one diode model are given from the knowledge of three operating points: short-circuit, open circuit, and maximum power. In the first step, the adopted approach concerns the resolution of the system of equations constituting the three operating points to write all the model parameters according to series resistance. Secondly, we make an iterative resolution at the optimal operating point by using the Newton-Raphson method to calculate the series resistance value as well as the model parameters. Once the panel model is identified, we consider other equations for taking into account the irradiance and temperature effect. The simulation results show the convergence speed of the model parameters and the possibility of visualizing the electrical behaviour of the panel according to the irradiance and temperature. Let us note that a sensitivity of the algorithm at the optimal operating point was observed owing to the fact that a small variation of the optimal voltage value leads to a very great variation of the identified parameters values. With the identified model, we can develop algorithms of maximum power point tracking, and make simulations of a solar water pumping system.(Author)

  20. A simulation model for material accounting systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coulter, C.A.; Thomas, K.E.

    1987-01-01

    A general-purpose model that was developed to simulate the operation of a chemical processing facility for nuclear materials has been extended to describe material measurement and accounting procedures as well. The model now provides descriptors for material balance areas, a large class of measurement instrument types and their associated measurement errors for various classes of materials, the measurement instruments themselves with their individual calibration schedules, and material balance closures. Delayed receipt of measurement results (as for off-line analytical chemistry assay), with interim use of a provisional measurement value, can be accurately represented. The simulation model can be used to estimate inventory difference variances for processing areas that do not operate at steady state, to evaluate the timeliness of measurement information, to determine process impacts of measurement requirements, and to evaluate the effectiveness of diversion-detection algorithms. Such information is usually difficult to obtain by other means. Use of the measurement simulation model is illustrated by applying it to estimate inventory difference variances for two material balance area structures of a fictitious nuclear material processing line

  1. Theory, modeling and simulation: Annual report 1993

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dunning, T.H. Jr.; Garrett, B.C.

    1994-07-01

    Developing the knowledge base needed to address the environmental restoration issues of the US Department of Energy requires a fundamental understanding of molecules and their interactions in insolation and in liquids, on surfaces, and at interfaces. To meet these needs, the PNL has established the Environmental and Molecular Sciences Laboratory (EMSL) and will soon begin construction of a new, collaborative research facility devoted to advancing the understanding of environmental molecular science. Research in the Theory, Modeling, and Simulation program (TMS), which is one of seven research directorates in the EMSL, will play a critical role in understanding molecular processes important in restoring DOE's research, development and production sites, including understanding the migration and reactions of contaminants in soils and groundwater, the development of separation process for isolation of pollutants, the development of improved materials for waste storage, understanding the enzymatic reactions involved in the biodegradation of contaminants, and understanding the interaction of hazardous chemicals with living organisms. The research objectives of the TMS program are to apply available techniques to study fundamental molecular processes involved in natural and contaminated systems; to extend current techniques to treat molecular systems of future importance and to develop techniques for addressing problems that are computationally intractable at present; to apply molecular modeling techniques to simulate molecular processes occurring in the multispecies, multiphase systems characteristic of natural and polluted environments; and to extend current molecular modeling techniques to treat complex molecular systems and to improve the reliability and accuracy of such simulations. The program contains three research activities: Molecular Theory/Modeling, Solid State Theory, and Biomolecular Modeling/Simulation. Extended abstracts are presented for 89 studies

  2. Theory, modeling and simulation: Annual report 1993

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dunning, T.H. Jr.; Garrett, B.C.

    1994-07-01

    Developing the knowledge base needed to address the environmental restoration issues of the US Department of Energy requires a fundamental understanding of molecules and their interactions in insolation and in liquids, on surfaces, and at interfaces. To meet these needs, the PNL has established the Environmental and Molecular Sciences Laboratory (EMSL) and will soon begin construction of a new, collaborative research facility devoted to advancing the understanding of environmental molecular science. Research in the Theory, Modeling, and Simulation program (TMS), which is one of seven research directorates in the EMSL, will play a critical role in understanding molecular processes important in restoring DOE`s research, development and production sites, including understanding the migration and reactions of contaminants in soils and groundwater, the development of separation process for isolation of pollutants, the development of improved materials for waste storage, understanding the enzymatic reactions involved in the biodegradation of contaminants, and understanding the interaction of hazardous chemicals with living organisms. The research objectives of the TMS program are to apply available techniques to study fundamental molecular processes involved in natural and contaminated systems; to extend current techniques to treat molecular systems of future importance and to develop techniques for addressing problems that are computationally intractable at present; to apply molecular modeling techniques to simulate molecular processes occurring in the multispecies, multiphase systems characteristic of natural and polluted environments; and to extend current molecular modeling techniques to treat complex molecular systems and to improve the reliability and accuracy of such simulations. The program contains three research activities: Molecular Theory/Modeling, Solid State Theory, and Biomolecular Modeling/Simulation. Extended abstracts are presented for 89 studies.

  3. Ocean barrier layers’ effect on tropical cyclone intensification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balaguru, Karthik; Chang, Ping; Saravanan, R.; Leung, L. Ruby; Xu, Zhao; Li, Mingkui; Hsieh, Jen-Shan

    2012-01-01

    Improving a tropical cyclone’s forecast and mitigating its destructive potential requires knowledge of various environmental factors that influence the cyclone’s path and intensity. Herein, using a combination of observations and model simulations, we systematically demonstrate that tropical cyclone intensification is significantly affected by salinity-induced barrier layers, which are “quasi-permanent” features in the upper tropical oceans. When tropical cyclones pass over regions with barrier layers, the increased stratification and stability within the layer reduce storm-induced vertical mixing and sea surface temperature cooling. This causes an increase in enthalpy flux from the ocean to the atmosphere and, consequently, an intensification of tropical cyclones. On average, the tropical cyclone intensification rate is nearly 50% higher over regions with barrier layers, compared to regions without. Our finding, which underscores the importance of observing not only the upper-ocean thermal structure but also the salinity structure in deep tropical barrier layer regions, may be a key to more skillful predictions of tropical cyclone intensities through improved ocean state estimates and simulations of barrier layer processes. As the hydrological cycle responds to global warming, any associated changes in the barrier layer distribution must be considered in projecting future tropical cyclone activity. PMID:22891298

  4. Ocean barrier layers' effect on tropical cyclone intensification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balaguru, Karthik; Chang, Ping; Saravanan, R; Leung, L Ruby; Xu, Zhao; Li, Mingkui; Hsieh, Jen-Shan

    2012-09-04

    Improving a tropical cyclone's forecast and mitigating its destructive potential requires knowledge of various environmental factors that influence the cyclone's path and intensity. Herein, using a combination of observations and model simulations, we systematically demonstrate that tropical cyclone intensification is significantly affected by salinity-induced barrier layers, which are "quasi-permanent" features in the upper tropical oceans. When tropical cyclones pass over regions with barrier layers, the increased stratification and stability within the layer reduce storm-induced vertical mixing and sea surface temperature cooling. This causes an increase in enthalpy flux from the ocean to the atmosphere and, consequently, an intensification of tropical cyclones. On average, the tropical cyclone intensification rate is nearly 50% higher over regions with barrier layers, compared to regions without. Our finding, which underscores the importance of observing not only the upper-ocean thermal structure but also the salinity structure in deep tropical barrier layer regions, may be a key to more skillful predictions of tropical cyclone intensities through improved ocean state estimates and simulations of barrier layer processes. As the hydrological cycle responds to global warming, any associated changes in the barrier layer distribution must be considered in projecting future tropical cyclone activity.

  5. A Model Management Approach for Co-Simulation Model Evaluation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zhang, X.C.; Broenink, Johannes F.; Filipe, Joaquim; Kacprzyk, Janusz; Pina, Nuno

    2011-01-01

    Simulating formal models is a common means for validating the correctness of the system design and reduce the time-to-market. In most of the embedded control system design, multiple engineering disciplines and various domain-specific models are often involved, such as mechanical, control, software

  6. Performance modelling and simulation of an absorption solar cooling system for Malaysia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Assilzadeh, F.; Ali, Y.; Kamaruzzaman Sopian

    2006-01-01

    Solar radiation contains huge amounts of energy and is required for almost all the natural processes on earth. Solar-powered air-conditioning has many advantages when compared to normal electricity system. This paper presents a solar cooling system that has been designed for Malaysia and other tropical regions using evacuated tube solar collector and LiBr absorption system. A modelling and simulation of absorption solar cooling system is modeled in Transient System Simulation (TRNSYS) environment. The typical meteorological year file containing the weather parameters is used to simulate the system. Then a system optimization is carried out in order to select the appropriate type of collector, the optimum size of storage tank, the optimum collector slope and area and the optimum thermostat setting of the auxiliary boiler

  7. Combining Eddy Covariance, Leaf Level Measurements and Modelling to Investigate Ecosystem Fluxes in Tropical Grasslands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wohland, P.; Mantlana, B.; Kattge, J.

    2007-12-01

    Our project determined seasonal and spatial variations in ecosystem fluxes of tropical grassland ecosystems by investigating three prominent grassland types along a hydrological gradient in the Okavango Delta, Botswana.To identify the environmental factors that control CO2 and H2O exchange in tropical grassland ecosystems, we successfully combined eddy covariance measurements, leaf level measurements and remotely sensed data.Grassland ecosystems growing under the same climate showed profound differences in ecosystem fluxes as well as what regulated those fluxes on an ecosystem level. The analysis of the eddy covariance measurements revealed a pronounced seasonal and spatial variation with maximum net ecosystem exchange (NE) varying between -25μ mol -2 s-1 and -1μ mol -2 s-1 across sites and seasons. Without water limitation the main factor for the differences in NE between ecosystems was nutrient content per vegetation unit. This importance of nutrient content was also confirmed by our leaf level measurements. Seasonal differences in NE varied between sites and were driven by phenology or temperature and light limitation.Eddy covariance measurements for this project were predominantly campaign measurements. To determine annual course and sum of NE, we adapted the ecosystem model BETHY (Biosphere-Energy Transfer Hydrology Scheme) by parameter inversion in combination with remotely sensed fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation for each site.

  8. Linking hydraulic traits to tropical forest function in a size-structured and trait-driven model (TFS v.1-Hydro)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christoffersen, Bradley O.; Gloor, Manuel; Fauset, Sophie; Fyllas, Nikolaos M.; Galbraith, David R.; Baker, Timothy R.; Kruijt, Bart; Rowland, Lucy; Fisher, Rosie A.; Binks, Oliver J.; Sevanto, Sanna; Xu, Chonggang; Jansen, Steven; Choat, Brendan; Mencuccini, Maurizio; McDowell, Nate G.; Meir, Patrick

    2016-11-01

    Forest ecosystem models based on heuristic water stress functions poorly predict tropical forest response to drought partly because they do not capture the diversity of hydraulic traits (including variation in tree size) observed in tropical forests. We developed a continuous porous media approach to modeling plant hydraulics in which all parameters of the constitutive equations are biologically interpretable and measurable plant hydraulic traits (e.g., turgor loss point πtlp, bulk elastic modulus ɛ, hydraulic capacitance Cft, xylem hydraulic conductivity ks,max, water potential at 50 % loss of conductivity for both xylem (P50,x) and stomata (P50,gs), and the leaf : sapwood area ratio Al : As). We embedded this plant hydraulics model within a trait forest simulator (TFS) that models light environments of individual trees and their upper boundary conditions (transpiration), as well as providing a means for parameterizing variation in hydraulic traits among individuals. We synthesized literature and existing databases to parameterize all hydraulic traits as a function of stem and leaf traits, including wood density (WD), leaf mass per area (LMA), and photosynthetic capacity (Amax), and evaluated the coupled model (called TFS v.1-Hydro) predictions, against observed diurnal and seasonal variability in stem and leaf water potential as well as stand-scaled sap flux. Our hydraulic trait synthesis revealed coordination among leaf and xylem hydraulic traits and statistically significant relationships of most hydraulic traits with more easily measured plant traits. Using the most informative empirical trait-trait relationships derived from this synthesis, TFS v.1-Hydro successfully captured individual variation in leaf and stem water potential due to increasing tree size and light environment, with model representation of hydraulic architecture and plant traits exerting primary and secondary controls, respectively, on the fidelity of model predictions. The plant

  9. Linking hydraulic traits to tropical forest function in a size-structured and trait-driven model (TFS v.1-Hydro

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. O. Christoffersen

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Forest ecosystem models based on heuristic water stress functions poorly predict tropical forest response to drought partly because they do not capture the diversity of hydraulic traits (including variation in tree size observed in tropical forests. We developed a continuous porous media approach to modeling plant hydraulics in which all parameters of the constitutive equations are biologically interpretable and measurable plant hydraulic traits (e.g., turgor loss point πtlp, bulk elastic modulus ε, hydraulic capacitance Cft, xylem hydraulic conductivity ks,max, water potential at 50 % loss of conductivity for both xylem (P50,x and stomata (P50,gs, and the leaf : sapwood area ratio Al : As. We embedded this plant hydraulics model within a trait forest simulator (TFS that models light environments of individual trees and their upper boundary conditions (transpiration, as well as providing a means for parameterizing variation in hydraulic traits among individuals. We synthesized literature and existing databases to parameterize all hydraulic traits as a function of stem and leaf traits, including wood density (WD, leaf mass per area (LMA, and photosynthetic capacity (Amax, and evaluated the coupled model (called TFS v.1-Hydro predictions, against observed diurnal and seasonal variability in stem and leaf water potential as well as stand-scaled sap flux. Our hydraulic trait synthesis revealed coordination among leaf and xylem hydraulic traits and statistically significant relationships of most hydraulic traits with more easily measured plant traits. Using the most informative empirical trait–trait relationships derived from this synthesis, TFS v.1-Hydro successfully captured individual variation in leaf and stem water potential due to increasing tree size and light environment, with model representation of hydraulic architecture and plant traits exerting primary and secondary controls, respectively, on the fidelity of model

  10. eShopper modeling and simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petrushin, Valery A.

    2001-03-01

    The advent of e-commerce gives an opportunity to shift the paradigm of customer communication into a highly interactive mode. The new generation of commercial Web servers, such as the Blue Martini's server, combines the collection of data on a customer behavior with real-time processing and dynamic tailoring of a feedback page. The new opportunities for direct product marketing and cross selling are arriving. The key problem is what kind of information do we need to achieve these goals, or in other words, how do we model the customer? The paper is devoted to customer modeling and simulation. The focus is on modeling an individual customer. The model is based on the customer's transaction data, click stream data, and demographics. The model includes the hierarchical profile of a customer's preferences to different types of products and brands; consumption models for the different types of products; the current focus, trends, and stochastic models for time intervals between purchases; product affinity models; and some generalized features, such as purchasing power, sensitivity to advertising, price sensitivity, etc. This type of model is used for predicting the date of the next visit, overall spending, and spending for different types of products and brands. For some type of stores (for example, a supermarket) and stable customers, it is possible to forecast the shopping lists rather accurately. The forecasting techniques are discussed. The forecasting results can be used for on- line direct marketing, customer retention, and inventory management. The customer model can also be used as a generative model for simulating the customer's purchasing behavior in different situations and for estimating customer's features.

  11. Influence of Tropical South Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures on the Indian Summer monsoon in CMIP5 models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kucharski, Fred; Joshi, Manish K.

    2017-04-01

    In this study the teleconnection from the tropical south Atlantic to the Indian monsoon has been assessed in observations and in 32 models from the World Climate Research Program (WCRP) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). All models show that the regression pattern of tropics-wide Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies onto the tropical south Atlantic index correlates well with that in observations, even though with varying spatial standard deviations. However, only about half of the 32 models considered show the correct sign of rainfall response over India to a warm anomaly in the south tropical Atlantic, which is a reduction of rainfall. On the other hand, models generally do show large-scale responses broadly consistent with the observations, and the signal over India depends on relatively subtle changes in the response. This response to a tropical south Atlantic warm (cold) anomaly is a low-level quadrupole in streamfunction with an anticyclonic (cyclonic) anomaly over the Arabian Sea and India. This anticyclonic (cyclonic) anomaly leads to a weakening (strengthening) of the Somali jet and low-level divergence (convergence) over India, both inducing a reduction (increase) of Indian rainfall. The models which do not show the correct rainfall response over India also show a response similar to the one indicated above, but with maximum of the anticyclonic (cyclonic) response shifted to the western Pacific. The large-scale Walker circulation adjustment to the tropical south Atlantic SST anomalies is identified as one of the factors which account for the differences in the low-level streamfunction response. Models (and the observations) with the correct sign of the rainfall signal over India show the dominant upper-level convergence (divergence) as response to a warm (cold) tropical south Atlantic in the western Pacific region, whereas models with the wrong sign of the rainfall signal show it predominantly in the central-eastern Pacific

  12. Simulation modelling in agriculture: General considerations. | R.I. ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The computer does all the necessary arithmetic when the hypothesis is invoked to predict the future behaviour of the simulated system under given conditions.A general ... in the advisory service. Keywords: agriculture; botany; computer simulation; modelling; simulation model; simulation modelling; south africa; techniques ...

  13. Orographic effects on tropical climate in a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okajima, Hideki

    Large-scale mountain modifies the atmospheric circulation directly through dynamic and thermodynamic process, and also indirectly through the interaction with the ocean. To investigate orographic impacts on tropical climate, a fully coupled general circulation model (CGCM) is developed by coupling a state-of-the-art atmospheric general circulation model and an ocean general circulation model. With realistic boundary conditions, the CGCM produces a reasonable climatology of sea surface temperature (SST), surface winds, and precipitation. When global mountains are removed, the model climatology displays substantial changes in both the mean-state and the seasonal cycle. The equatorial eastern Pacific SST acquires a semi-annual component as inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) flips and flops across the equator following the seasonal migration of the sun. Without the Andes, wet air flows into the southeastern tropical Pacific from the humid Amazon, which weakens the meridional asymmetry during the Peruvian warm season (February-April). In addition, the northeasterly trade winds are enhanced north of the equator without the orographic blocking of Central American mountains and cools SST. Triggered by the SST cooling north and moistening south of the equator, the wind-evaporation-SST (WES) feedback further weakens the meridional asymmetry and prolongs the southern ITCZ. In the Atlantic Ocean, the equatorial cold tongue is substantially strengthened and develops a pronounced annual cycle in the absence of mountains. The easterly winds are overall enhanced over the equatorial Atlantic without orographic heating over the African highlands, developing a zonal asymmetry strengthened by the Bjerknes feedback. In the Indian Ocean, the thermocline shoals eastward and an equatorial cold tongue appears twice a year. During boreal summer, the Findlater jet is greatly weakened off Somalia and SST warms in the western Indian Ocean, forcing the equatorial easterly winds amplified

  14. Tropical Diabatic Heating and the Role of Convective Processes as Represented in Several Contemporary Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robertson, Franklin R.; Roads, John; Oglesby, Robert; Marshall, Susan

    2004-01-01

    One of the most fundamental properties of the global heat balance is the net heat input into the tropical atmosphere that helps drive the planetary atmospheric circulation. Although broadly understood in terms of its gross structure and balance of source / sink terms, incorporation of the relevant processes in predictive models is still rather poor. The work reported here examines the tropical radiative and water cycle behavior as produced by four contemporary climate models. Among these are the NSIPP-2 (NASA Seasonal to Interannual Prediction Project) which uses the RAS convective parameterization; the FVCCM, a code using finite volume numerics and the CCM3.6 physics; FVCCM-MCRAS again having the finite volume numerics, but MCRAS convective parameterization and a different radiation treatment; and, finally, the NCEP GSM which uses the RAS. Using multi-decadal integrations with specified SSTs we examine the statistics of radiative / convective processes and associated energy transports, and then estimate model energy flux sensitivities to SST changes. In particular the behavior of the convective parameterizations is investigated. Additional model integrations are performed specifically to assess the importance representing convective inhibition in regulating convective cloud-top structure and moisture detrainment as well as controlling surface energy fluxes. To evaluate the results of these experiments, a number of satellite retrievals are used: TRMM retrievals of vertical reflectivity structure, rainfall rate, and inferred diabatic heating are analyzed to show both seasonal and interannual variations in vertical structure of latent heat release. Top-of-atmosphere radiative fluxes from ERBS and CERES are used to examine shortwave and longwave cloud forcing and to deduce required seasonal energy transports. Retrievals of cloud properties from ISCCP and water vapor variations from SSM/T-2 are also used to understand behavior of the humidity fields. These observations

  15. Aqueous Electrolytes: Model Parameters and Process Simulation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thomsen, Kaj

    This thesis deals with aqueous electrolyte mixtures. The Extended UNIQUAC model is being used to describe the excess Gibbs energy of such solutions. Extended UNIQUAC parameters for the twelve ions Na+, K+, NH4+, H+, Cl-, NO3-, SO42-, HSO4-, OH-, CO32-, HCO3-, and S2O82- are estimated. A computer ...... program including a steady state process simulator for the design, simulation, and optimization of fractional crystallization processes is presented.......This thesis deals with aqueous electrolyte mixtures. The Extended UNIQUAC model is being used to describe the excess Gibbs energy of such solutions. Extended UNIQUAC parameters for the twelve ions Na+, K+, NH4+, H+, Cl-, NO3-, SO42-, HSO4-, OH-, CO32-, HCO3-, and S2O82- are estimated. A computer...

  16. Test of validity of a dynamic soil carbon model using data from leaf litter decomposition in a West African tropical forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guendehou, G. H. S.; Liski, J.; Tuomi, M.; Moudachirou, M.; Sinsin, B.; Mäkipää, R.

    2013-05-01

    We evaluated the applicability of the dynamic soil carbon model Yasso07 in tropical conditions in West Africa by simulating the litter decomposition process using as required input into the model litter mass, litter quality, temperature and precipitation collected during a litterbag experiment. The experiment was conducted over a six-month period on leaf litter of five dominant tree species, namely Afzelia africana, Anogeissus leiocarpa, Ceiba pentandra, Dialium guineense and Diospyros mespiliformis in a semi-deciduous vertisol forest in Southern Benin. Since the predictions of Yasso07 were not consistent with the observations on mass loss and chemical composition of litter, Yasso07 was fitted to the dataset composed of global data and the new experimental data from Benin. The re-parameterized versions of Yasso07 had a good predictive ability and refined the applicability of the model in Benin to estimate soil carbon stocks, its changes and CO2 emissions from heterotrophic respiration as main outputs of the model. The findings of this research support the hypothesis that the high variation of litter quality observed in the tropics is a major driver of the decomposition and needs to be accounted in the model parameterization.

  17. A Placement Model for Flight Simulators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1982-09-01

    simulator basing strategies. Captains David R. VanDenburg and Jon D. Veith developed a mathematical model to assist in the placement analysis of A-7...Institute for Defense Analysis, Arlington VA, August 1977. AD A049979. 23. Sugarman , Robert C., Steven L. Johnson, and William F. H. Ring. "B-I Systems...USAF Cost and Plan- nin& Factors. AFR 173-13. Washington: Govern- ment Printing Office, I February 1982. * 30. Van Denburg, Captain David R., USAF

  18. Simulation of nitrous oxide and nitric oxide emissions from tropical primary forests in the Costa Rican Atlantic Zone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shuguanga Liu; William A. Reiners; Michael Keller; Davis S. Schimel

    2000-01-01

    Nitrous oxide (N2O) and nitric oxide (NO) are important atmospheric trace gases participating in the regulation of global climate and environment. Predictive models on the emissions of N2O and NO emissions from soil into the atmosphere are required. We modified the CENTURY model (Soil Sci. Soc. Am. J., 51 (1987) 1173) to simulate the emissions of N2O and NO from...

  19. Development of a PBL Parameterization Scheme for the Tropical Cyclone Model and an Improved Magnetospheric Model for Magic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1981-03-25

    jM 1.25(W P Il~ II I [ 6 :, LEVd~5 I ~JAMMOR jkppovo reecm * 1 L81 31 042 300 Unicorn Park Drive Wobum, Massachuset 0C601 _ __ _JA YCOR DEVELOPMENT...for the growth 4 of the tropical cyclone, and leads to a gradual shift of the storm center toward the warm ocean. "Test of a Planetary Boundary Layer... growth characteristics because gravity waves and model physics act to smooth them. Besides, random observational errors are not the major problem with

  20. Modelling interplanetary CMEs using magnetohydrodynamic simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. J. Cargill

    Full Text Available The dynamics of Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections (ICMEs are discussed from the viewpoint of numerical modelling. Hydrodynamic models are shown to give a good zero-order picture of the plasma properties of ICMEs, but they cannot model the important magnetic field effects. Results from MHD simulations are shown for a number of cases of interest. It is demonstrated that the strong interaction of the ICME with the solar wind leads to the ICME and solar wind velocities being close to each other at 1 AU, despite their having very different speeds near the Sun. It is also pointed out that this interaction leads to a distortion of the ICME geometry, making cylindrical symmetry a dubious assumption for the CME field at 1 AU. In the presence of a significant solar wind magnetic field, the magnetic fields of the ICME and solar wind can reconnect with each other, leading to an ICME that has solar wind-like field lines. This effect is especially important when an ICME with the right sense of rotation propagates down the heliospheric current sheet. It is also noted that a lack of knowledge of the coronal magnetic field makes such simulations of little use in space weather forecasts that require knowledge of the ICME magnetic field strength.

    Key words. Interplanetary physics (interplanetary magnetic fields Solar physics, astrophysics, and astronomy (flares and mass ejections Space plasma physics (numerical simulation studies

  1. MODELING AND SIMULATION OF A HYDROCRACKING UNIT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    HASSAN A. FARAG

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Hydrocracking is used in the petroleum industry to convert low quality feed stocks into high valued transportation fuels such as gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel. The aim of the present work is to develop a rigorous steady state two-dimensional mathematical model which includes conservation equations of mass and energy for simulating the operation of a hydrocracking unit. Both the catalyst bed and quench zone have been included in this integrated model. The model equations were numerically solved in both axial and radial directions using Matlab software. The presented model was tested against a real plant data in Egypt. The results indicated that a very good agreement between the model predictions and industrial values have been reported for temperature profiles, concentration profiles, and conversion in both radial and axial directions at the hydrocracking unit. Simulation of the quench zone conversion and temperature profiles in the quench zone was also included and gave a low deviation from the actual ones. In concentration profiles, the percentage deviation in the first reactor was found to be 9.28 % and 9.6% for the second reactor. The effect of several parameters such as: Pellet Heat Transfer Coefficient, Effective Radial Thermal Conductivity, Wall Heat Transfer Coefficient, Effective Radial Diffusivity, and Cooling medium (quench zone has been included in this study. The variation of Wall Heat Transfer Coefficient, Effective Radial Diffusivity for the near-wall region, gave no remarkable changes in the temperature profiles. On the other hand, even small variations of Effective Radial Thermal Conductivity, affected the simulated temperature profiles significantly, and this effect could not be compensated by the variations of the other parameters of the model.

  2. Mapping tropical biodiversity using spectroscopic imagery : characterization of structural and chemical diversity with 3-D radiative transfer modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feret, J. B.; Gastellu-Etchegorry, J. P.; Lefèvre-Fonollosa, M. J.; Proisy, C.; Asner, G. P.

    2014-12-01

    The accelerating loss of biodiversity is a major environmental trend. Tropical ecosystems are particularly threatened due to climate change, invasive species, farming and natural resources exploitation. Recent advances in remote sensing of biodiversity confirmed the potential of high spatial resolution spectroscopic imagery for species identification and biodiversity mapping. Such information bridges the scale-gap between small-scale, highly detailed field studies and large-scale, low-resolution satellite observations. In order to produce fine-scale resolution maps of canopy alpha-diversity and beta-diversity of the Peruvian Amazonian forest, we designed, applied and validated a method based on spectral variation hypothesis to CAO AToMS (Carnegie Airborne Observatory Airborne Taxonomic Mapping System) images, acquired from 2011 to 2013. There is a need to understand on a quantitative basis the physical processes leading to this spectral variability. This spectral variability mainly depends on canopy chemistry, structure, and sensor's characteristics. 3D radiative transfer modeling provides a powerful framework for the study of the relative influence of each of these factors in dense and complex canopies. We simulated series of spectroscopic images with the 3D radiative model DART, with variability gradients in terms of leaf chemistry, individual tree structure, spatial and spectral resolution, and applied methods for biodiversity mapping. This sensitivity study allowed us to determine the relative influence of these factors on the radiometric signal acquired by different types of sensors. Such study is particularly important to define the domain of validity of our approach, to refine requirements for the instrumental specifications, and to help preparing hyperspectral spatial missions to be launched at the horizon 2015-2025 (EnMAP, PRISMA, HISUI, SHALOM, HYSPIRI, HYPXIM). Simulations in preparation include topographic variations in order to estimate the robustness

  3. Reactive transport models and simulation with ALLIANCES

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leterrier, N.; Deville, E.; Bary, B.; Trotignon, L.; Hedde, T.; Cochepin, B.; Stora, E.

    2009-01-01

    Many chemical processes influence the evolution of nuclear waste storage. As a result, simulations based only upon transport and hydraulic processes fail to describe adequately some industrial scenarios. We need to take into account complex chemical models (mass action laws, kinetics...) which are highly non-linear. In order to simulate the coupling of these chemical reactions with transport, we use a classical Sequential Iterative Approach (SIA), with a fixed point algorithm, within the mainframe of the ALLIANCES platform. This approach allows us to use the various transport and chemical modules available in ALLIANCES, via an operator-splitting method based upon the structure of the chemical system. We present five different applications of reactive transport simulations in the context of nuclear waste storage: 1. A 2D simulation of the lixiviation by rain water of an underground polluted zone high in uranium oxide; 2. The degradation of the steel envelope of a package in contact with clay. Corrosion of the steel creates corrosion products and the altered package becomes a porous medium. We follow the degradation front through kinetic reactions and the coupling with transport; 3. The degradation of a cement-based material by the injection of an aqueous solution of zinc and sulphate ions. In addition to the reactive transport coupling, we take into account in this case the hydraulic retroaction of the porosity variation on the Darcy velocity; 4. The decalcification of a concrete beam in an underground storage structure. In this case, in addition to the reactive transport simulation, we take into account the interaction between chemical degradation and the mechanical forces (cracks...), and the retroactive influence on the structure changes on transport; 5. The degradation of the steel envelope of a package in contact with a clay material under a temperature gradient. In this case the reactive transport simulation is entirely directed by the temperature changes and

  4. Differences in rain rate intensities between TRMM observations and community atmosphere model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Yi; Bowman, Kenneth P.; Jackson, Charles

    2007-01-01

    Precipitation related latent heating is important in driving the atmospheric general circulation and in generating intraseasonal to decadal atmospheric variability. Our ability to project future climate change, especially trends in costly precipitation extremes, hinges upon whether coupled GCMs capture processes that affect precipitation characteristics. Our study compares the tropical-subtropical precipitation characteristics of simulations by the NCAR CAM3.1 atmospheric GCM and observations derived from the NASA Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite. Despite a fairly good simulation of the annual mean rain rate, CAM rains about 10-50% more often than the real world and fails to capture heavy rainfall associated with deep convective systems over subtropical South America and U.S. Southern Plains. When it rains, there is a likelihood of 0.96-1.0 that it rains lightly in the model, compared to values of 0.84-1.0 in TRMM data. On the other hand, the likelihood of the occurrence of moderate to heavy rainfall is an order of magnitude higher in observations (0.12-0.2) than that in the model (model compensates for the lack of heavy precipitation through raining more frequently within the light rain category, which leads to an annual rainfall amount close to what is observed. CAM captures the qualitative change of rain rate PDF from a "dry" oceanic to a "wet" oceanic region, but it fails to simulate the change of precipitation characteristics from an oceanic region to a land region where thunderstorm rainfall dominates.

  5. Human Influence on Tropical Cyclone Intensity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sobel, Adam H.; Camargo, Suzana J.; Hall, Timothy M.; Lee, Chia-Ying; Tippett, Michael K.; Wing, Allison A.

    2016-01-01

    Recent assessments agree that tropical cyclone intensity should increase as the climate warms. Less agreement exists on the detection of recent historical trends in tropical cyclone intensity.We interpret future and recent historical trends by using the theory of potential intensity, which predicts the maximum intensity achievable by a tropical cyclone in a given local environment. Although greenhouse gas-driven warming increases potential intensity, climate model simulations suggest that aerosol cooling has largely canceled that effect over the historical record. Large natural variability complicates analysis of trends, as do poleward shifts in the latitude of maximum intensity. In the absence of strong reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, future greenhouse gas forcing of potential intensity will increasingly dominate over aerosol forcing, leading to substantially larger increases in tropical cyclone intensities.

  6. Simulation models generator. Applications in scheduling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Omar Danilo Castrillón

    2013-08-01

    Rev.Mate.Teor.Aplic. (ISSN 1409-2433 Vol. 20(2: 231–241, July 2013 generador de modelos de simulacion 233 will, in order to have an approach to reality to evaluate decisions in order to take more assertive. To test prototype was used as the modeling example of a production system with 9 machines and 5 works as a job shop configuration, testing stops processing times and stochastic machine to measure rates of use of machines and time average jobs in the system, as measures of system performance. This test shows the goodness of the prototype, to save the user the simulation model building

  7. Computer Models Simulate Fine Particle Dispersion

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    Through a NASA Seed Fund partnership with DEM Solutions Inc., of Lebanon, New Hampshire, scientists at Kennedy Space Center refined existing software to study the electrostatic phenomena of granular and bulk materials as they apply to planetary surfaces. The software, EDEM, allows users to import particles and obtain accurate representations of their shapes for modeling purposes, such as simulating bulk solids behavior, and was enhanced to be able to more accurately model fine, abrasive, cohesive particles. These new EDEM capabilities can be applied in many industries unrelated to space exploration and have been adopted by several prominent U.S. companies, including John Deere, Pfizer, and Procter & Gamble.

  8. Modeling and simulation of reactive flows

    CERN Document Server

    Bortoli, De AL; Pereira, Felipe

    2015-01-01

    Modelling and Simulation of Reactive Flows presents information on modeling and how to numerically solve reactive flows. The book offers a distinctive approach that combines diffusion flames and geochemical flow problems, providing users with a comprehensive resource that bridges the gap for scientists, engineers, and the industry. Specifically, the book looks at the basic concepts related to reaction rates, chemical kinetics, and the development of reduced kinetic mechanisms. It considers the most common methods used in practical situations, along with equations for reactive flows, and va

  9. Simian-tropic HIV as a model to study drug resistance against integrase inhibitors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wares, Melissa; Hassounah, Said; Mesplède, Thibault; Sandstrom, Paul A; Wainberg, Mark A

    2015-04-01

    Drug resistance represents a key aspect of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) treatment failure. It is important to develop nonhuman primate models for studying issues of drug resistance and the persistence and transmission of drug-resistant viruses. However, relatively little work has been conducted using either simian immunodeficiency virus (SIV) or SIV/HIV recombinant viruses for studying resistance against integrase strand transfer inhibitors (INSTIs). Here, we used a T-cell-tropic SIV/HIV recombinant virus in which the capsid and vif regions of HIV-1 were replaced with their SIV counterparts (simian-tropic HIV-1 [stHIV-1](SCA,SVIF)) to study the impact of a number of drug resistance substitutions in the integrase coding region at positions E92Q, G118R, E138K, Y143R, S153Y, N155H, and R263K on drug resistance, viral infectivity, and viral replication capacity. Our results show that each of these substitutions exerted effects that were similar to their effects in HIV-1. Substitutions associated with primary resistance against dolutegravir were more detrimental to stHIV-1(SCA,SVIF) infectiousness than were resistance substitutions associated with raltegravir and elvitegravir, consistent with data that have been reported for HIV-1. These findings support the role of stHIV-1(SCA,SVIF) as a useful model with which to evaluate the role of INSTI resistance substitutions on viral persistence, transmissibility, and pathogenesis in a nonhuman primate model. Copyright © 2015, American Society for Microbiology. All Rights Reserved.

  10. TMS modeling toolbox for realistic simulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cho, Young Sun; Suh, Hyun Sang; Lee, Won Hee; Kim, Tae-Seong

    2010-01-01

    Transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) is a technique for brain stimulation using rapidly changing magnetic fields generated by coils. It has been established as an effective stimulation technique to treat patients suffering from damaged brain functions. Although TMS is known to be painless and noninvasive, it can also be harmful to the brain by incorrect focusing and excessive stimulation which might result in seizure. Therefore there is ongoing research effort to elucidate and better understand the effect and mechanism of TMS. Lately Boundary element method (BEM) and Finite element method (FEM) have been used to simulate the electromagnetic phenomenon of TMS. However, there is a lack of general tools to generate the models of TMS due to some difficulties in realistic modeling of the human head and TMS coils. In this study, we have developed a toolbox through which one can generate high-resolution FE TMS models. The toolbox allows creating FE models of the head with isotropic and anisotropic electrical conductivities in five different tissues of the head and the coils in 3D. The generated TMS model is importable to FE software packages such as ANSYS for further and efficient electromagnetic analysis. We present a set of demonstrative results of realistic simulation of TMS with our toolbox.

  11. Wedge Experiment Modeling and Simulation for Reactive Flow Model Calibration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maestas, Joseph T.; Dorgan, Robert J.; Sutherland, Gerrit T.

    2017-06-01

    Wedge experiments are a typical method for generating pop-plot data (run-to-detonation distance versus input shock pressure), which is used to assess an explosive material's initiation behavior. Such data can be utilized to calibrate reactive flow models by running hydrocode simulations and successively tweaking model parameters until a match between experiment is achieved. Typical simulations are performed in 1D and typically use a flyer impact to achieve the prescribed shock loading pressure. In this effort, a wedge experiment performed at the Army Research Lab (ARL) was modeled using CTH (SNL hydrocode) in 1D, 2D, and 3D space in order to determine if there was any justification in using simplified models. A simulation was also performed using the BCAT code (CTH companion tool) that assumes a plate impact shock loading. Results from the simulations were compared to experimental data and show that the shock imparted into an explosive specimen is accurately captured with 2D and 3D simulations, but changes significantly in 1D space and with the BCAT tool. The difference in shock profile is shown to only affect numerical predictions for large run distances. This is attributed to incorrectly capturing the energy fluence for detonation waves versus flat shock loading. Portions of this work were funded through the Joint Insensitive Munitions Technology Program.

  12. The impact of tropical recirculation on polar composition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. E. Strahan

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available We derive the tropical modal age of air from an analysis of the water vapor tape recorder. We combine the observationally derived modal age with mean age of air from CO2 and SF6 to create diagnostics for the independent evaluation of the vertical transport rate and horizontal recirculation into the tropics between 16–32 km. These diagnostics are applied to two Global Modeling Initiative (GMI chemistry and transport model (CTM age tracer simulations to give new insights into the tropical transport characteristics of the meteorological fields from the GEOS4-GCM and the GEOS4-DAS. Both simulations are found to have modal ages that are in reasonable agreement with the empirically derived age (i.e., transit times over the entire altitude range. Both simulations show too little horizontal recirculation into the tropics above 22 km, with the GEOS4-DAS fields having greater recirculation. Using CH4 as a proxy for mean age, comparisons between HALOE and model CH4 in the Antarctic demonstrate how the strength of tropical recirculation affects polar composition in both CTM experiments. Better tropical recirculation tends to improve the CH4 simulation in the Antarctic. However, mean age in the Antarctic lower stratosphere can be compromised by poor representation of tropical ascent, tropical recirculation, or vortex barrier strength. The connection between polar and tropical composition shown in this study demonstrates the importance of diagnosing each of these processes separately in order to verify the adequate representation of the processes contributing to polar composition in models.

  13. Integrating Visualizations into Modeling NEST Simulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nowke, Christian; Zielasko, Daniel; Weyers, Benjamin; Peyser, Alexander; Hentschel, Bernd; Kuhlen, Torsten W

    2015-01-01

    Modeling large-scale spiking neural networks showing realistic biological behavior in their dynamics is a complex and tedious task. Since these networks consist of millions of interconnected neurons, their simulation produces an immense amount of data. In recent years it has become possible to simulate even larger networks. However, solutions to assist researchers in understanding the simulation's complex emergent behavior by means of visualization are still lacking. While developing tools to partially fill this gap, we encountered the challenge to integrate these tools easily into the neuroscientists' daily workflow. To understand what makes this so challenging, we looked into the workflows of our collaborators and analyzed how they use the visualizations to solve their daily problems. We identified two major issues: first, the analysis process can rapidly change focus which requires to switch the visualization tool that assists in the current problem domain. Second, because of the heterogeneous data that results from simulations, researchers want to relate data to investigate these effectively. Since a monolithic application model, processing and visualizing all data modalities and reflecting all combinations of possible workflows in a holistic way, is most likely impossible to develop and to maintain, a software architecture that offers specialized visualization tools that run simultaneously and can be linked together to reflect the current workflow, is a more feasible approach. To this end, we have developed a software architecture that allows neuroscientists to integrate visualization tools more closely into the modeling tasks. In addition, it forms the basis for semantic linking of different visualizations to reflect the current workflow. In this paper, we present this architecture and substantiate the usefulness of our approach by common use cases we encountered in our collaborative work.

  14. Integrating Visualizations into Modeling NEST Simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian eNowke

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Modeling large-scale spiking neural networks showing realistic biological behavior in their dynamics is a complex and tedious task. Since these networks consist of millions of interconnected neurons, their simulation produces an immense amount of data. In recent years it has become possible to simulate even larger networks. However, solutions to assist researchers in understanding the simulation's complex emergent behavior by means of visualization are still lacking. While developing tools to partially fill this gap, we encountered the challenge to integrate these tools easily into the neuroscientists' daily workflow. To understand what makes this so challenging, we looked into the workflows of our collaborators and analyzed how they use the visualizations to solve their daily problems. We identified two major issues: first, the analysis process can rapidly change focus which requires to switch the visualization tool that assists in the current problem domain. Second, because of the heterogeneous data that results from simulations, researchers want to relate data to investigate these effectively. Since a monolithic application model, processing and visualizing all data modalities and reflecting all combinations of possible workflows in a holistic way, is most likely impossible to develop and to maintain, a software architecture that offers specialized visualization tools that run simultaneously and can be linked together to reflect the current workflow, is a more feasible approach. To this end, we have developed a software architecture that allows neuroscientists to integrate visualization tools more closely into the modeling tasks. In addition, it forms the basis for semantic linking of different visualizations to reflect the current workflow. In this paper, we present this architecture and substantiate the usefulness of our approach by common use cases we encountered in our collaborative work.

  15. Integrating Visualizations into Modeling NEST Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nowke, Christian; Zielasko, Daniel; Weyers, Benjamin; Peyser, Alexander; Hentschel, Bernd; Kuhlen, Torsten W.

    2015-01-01

    Modeling large-scale spiking neural networks showing realistic biological behavior in their dynamics is a complex and tedious task. Since these networks consist of millions of interconnected neurons, their simulation produces an immense amount of data. In recent years it has become possible to simulate even larger networks. However, solutions to assist researchers in understanding the simulation's complex emergent behavior by means of visualization are still lacking. While developing tools to partially fill this gap, we encountered the challenge to integrate these tools easily into the neuroscientists' daily workflow. To understand what makes this so challenging, we looked into the workflows of our collaborators and analyzed how they use the visualizations to solve their daily problems. We identified two major issues: first, the analysis process can rapidly change focus which requires to switch the visualization tool that assists in the current problem domain. Second, because of the heterogeneous data that results from simulations, researchers want to relate data to investigate these effectively. Since a monolithic application model, processing and visualizing all data modalities and reflecting all combinations of possible workflows in a holistic way, is most likely impossible to develop and to maintain, a software architecture that offers specialized visualization tools that run simultaneously and can be linked together to reflect the current workflow, is a more feasible approach. To this end, we have developed a software architecture that allows neuroscientists to integrate visualization tools more closely into the modeling tasks. In addition, it forms the basis for semantic linking of different visualizations to reflect the current workflow. In this paper, we present this architecture and substantiate the usefulness of our approach by common use cases we encountered in our collaborative work. PMID:26733860

  16. Efficient Turbulence Modeling for CFD Wake Simulations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    van der Laan, Paul

    , that can accurately and efficiently simulate wind turbine wakes. The linear k-ε eddy viscosity model (EVM) is a popular turbulence model in RANS; however, it underpredicts the velocity wake deficit and cannot predict the anisotropic Reynolds-stresses in the wake. In the current work, nonlinear eddy...... viscosity models (NLEVM) are applied to wind turbine wakes. NLEVMs can model anisotropic turbulence through a nonlinear stress-strain relation, and they can improve the velocity deficit by the use of a variable eddy viscosity coefficient, that delays the wake recovery. Unfortunately, all tested NLEVMs show...... numerically unstable behavior for fine grids, which inhibits a grid dependency study for numerical verification. Therefore, a simpler EVM is proposed, labeled as the k-ε - fp EVM, that has a linear stress-strain relation, but still has a variable eddy viscosity coefficient. The k-ε - fp EVM is numerically...

  17. Modeling and simulation of gamma camera

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Singh, B.; Kataria, S.K.; Samuel, A.M.

    2002-08-01

    Simulation techniques play a vital role in designing of sophisticated instruments and also for the training of operating and maintenance staff. Gamma camera systems have been used for functional imaging in nuclear medicine. Functional images are derived from the external counting of the gamma emitting radioactive tracer that after introduction in to the body mimics the behavior of native biochemical compound. The position sensitive detector yield the coordinates of the gamma ray interaction with the detector and are used to estimate the point of gamma ray emission within the tracer distribution space. This advanced imaging device is thus dependent on the performance of algorithm for coordinate computing, estimation of point of emission, generation of image and display of the image data. Contemporary systems also have protocols for quality control and clinical evaluation of imaging studies. Simulation of this processing leads to understanding of the basic camera design problems. This report describes a PC based package for design and simulation of gamma camera along with the options of simulating data acquisition and quality control of imaging studies. Image display and data processing the other options implemented in SIMCAM will be described in separate reports (under preparation). Gamma camera modeling and simulation in SIMCAM has preset configuration of the design parameters for various sizes of crystal detector with the option to pack the PMT on hexagon or square lattice. Different algorithm for computation of coordinates and spatial distortion removal are allowed in addition to the simulation of energy correction circuit. The user can simulate different static, dynamic, MUGA and SPECT studies. The acquired/ simulated data is processed for quality control and clinical evaluation of the imaging studies. Results show that the program can be used to assess these performances. Also the variations in performance parameters can be assessed due to the induced

  18. Desktop Modeling and Simulation: Parsimonious, yet Effective Discrete-Event Simulation Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bradley, James R.

    2012-01-01

    This paper evaluates how quickly students can be trained to construct useful discrete-event simulation models using Excel The typical supply chain used by many large national retailers is described, and an Excel-based simulation model is constructed of it The set of programming and simulation skills required for development of that model are then determined we conclude that six hours of training are required to teach the skills to MBA students . The simulation presented here contains all fundamental functionallty of a simulation model, and so our result holds for any discrete-event simulation model. We argue therefore that Industry workers with the same technical skill set as students having completed one year in an MBA program can be quickly trained to construct simulation models. This result gives credence to the efficacy of Desktop Modeling and Simulation whereby simulation analyses can be quickly developed, run, and analyzed with widely available software, namely Excel.

  19. The Next-Generation Goddard Convective-Stratiform Heating Algorithm: New Retrievals for Tropical and Extra-tropical Environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lang, S. E.; Tao, W. K.; Iguchi, T.

    2017-12-01

    The Goddard Convective-Stratiform Heating (or CSH) algorithm has been used to estimate cloud heating over the global Tropics using TRMM rainfall data and a set of look-up-tables (LUTs) derived from a series of multi-week cloud-resolving model (CRM) simulations using the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble model (GCE). These simulations link satellite observables (i.e., surface rainfall and stratiform fraction) with cloud heating profiles, which are not directly observable. However, with the launch of GPM in 2014, the range over which such algorithms can be applied has been extended from the Tropics into higher latitudes, including cold season and synoptic weather systems. In response, the CSH algorithm and its LUTs have been revised both to improve the retrievals in the Tropics as well as expand retrievals to higher latitudes. For the Tropics, the GCE simulations used to build the LUTs were upgraded using larger 2D model domains (512 vs 256 km) and a new, improved Goddard 4-ice scheme as well as expanded with additional cases (4 land and 6 ocean in total). The new tropical LUTs are also re-built using additional metrics. Besides surface type, conditional rain intensity and stratiform fraction, the new LUTs incorporate echo top heights and low-level (0-2 km) vertical reflectivity gradients. CSH retrievals in the Tropics based on the new LUTs show significant differences from previous iterations using TRMM data or the old LUT metrics. For the Extra-tropics, 6 NU-WRF simulations of synoptic events (3 East Coast and 3 West Coast), including snow, were used to build new extra-tropical CSH LUTs. The LUT metrics for the extra-tropics are based on radar characteristics and freezing level height. The extra-tropical retrievals are evaluated with a self-consistency check approach using the model heating as `truth,' and freezing level height is used to transition CSH retrievals from the Tropics to Extra-tropics. Retrieved zonal average heating structures in the Extra-tropics are

  20. Irrigation water consumption modelling of a soilless cucumber crop under specific greenhouse conditions in a humid tropical climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Galo Alberto Salcedo

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT: The irrigation water consumption of a soilless cucumber crop under greenhouse conditions in a humid tropical climate has been evaluated in this paper in order to improve the irrigation water and fertilizers management in these specific conditions. For this purpose, a field experiment was conducted. Two trials were carried out during the years 2011 and 2014 in an experimental farm located in Vinces (Ecuador. In each trial, the complete growing cycle of a cucumber crop grown under a greenhouse was evaluated. Crop development was monitored and a good fit to a sigmoidal Gompertz type growth function was reported. The daily water uptake of the crop was measured and related to the most relevant indoor climate variables. Two different combination methods, namely the Penman-Monteith equation and the Baille equation, were applied. However, the results obtained with these combination methods were not satisfactory due to the poor correlation between the climatic variables, especially the incoming radiation, and the crop's water uptake (WU. On contrary, a good correlation was reported between the crop's water uptake and the leaf area index (LAI, especially in the initial crop stages. However, when the crop is fully developed, the WU stabilizes and becomes independent from the LAI. A preliminary model to simulate the water uptake of the crop was adjusted using the data obtained in the first experiment and then validated with the data of the second experiment.