WorldWideScience

Sample records for model short period

  1. Short-term Periodization Models: Effects on Strength and Speed-strength Performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartmann, Hagen; Wirth, Klaus; Keiner, Michael; Mickel, Christoph; Sander, Andre; Szilvas, Elena

    2015-10-01

    Dividing training objectives into consecutive phases to gain morphological adaptations (hypertrophy phase) and neural adaptations (strength and power phases) is called strength-power periodization (SPP). These phases differ in program variables (volume, intensity, and exercise choice or type) and use stepwise intensity progression and concomitant decreasing volume, converging to peak intensity (peaking phase). Undulating periodization strategies rotate these program variables in a bi-weekly, weekly, or daily fashion. The following review addresses the effects of different short-term periodization models on strength and speed-strength both with subjects of different performance levels and with competitive athletes from different sports who use a particular periodization model during off-season, pre-season, and in-season conditioning. In most periodization studies, it is obvious that the strength endurance sessions are characterized by repetition zones (12-15 repetitions) that induce muscle hypertrophy in persons with a low performance level. Strictly speaking, when examining subjects with a low training level, many periodization studies include mainly hypertrophy sessions interspersed with heavy strength/power sessions. Studies have demonstrated equal or statistically significant higher gains in maximal strength for daily undulating periodization compared with SPP in subjects with a low to moderate performance level. The relatively short intervention period and the lack of concomitant sports conditioning call into question the practical value of these findings for competitive athletes. Possibly owing to differences in mesocycle length, conditioning programs, and program variables, competitive athletes either maintained or improved strength and/or speed-strength performance by integrating daily undulating periodization and SPP during off-season, pre-season and in-season conditioning. In high-performance sports, high-repetition strength training (>15) should be

  2. Short period forecasting of catchment-scale precipitation. Part II: a water-balance storm model for short-term rainfall and flood forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. A. Bell

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available A simple two-dimensional rainfall model, based on advection and conservation of mass in a vertical cloud column, is investigated for use in short-term rainfall and flood forecasting at the catchment scale under UK conditions. The model is capable of assimilating weather radar, satellite infra-red and surface weather observations, together with forecasts from a mesoscale numerical weather prediction model, to obtain frequently updated forecasts of rainfall fields. Such data assimilation helps compensate for the simplified model dynamics and, taken together, provides a practical real-time forecasting scheme for catchment scale applications. Various ways are explored for using information from a numerical weather prediction model (16.8 km grid within the higher resolution model (5 km grid. A number of model variants is considered, ranging from simple persistence and advection methods used as a baseline, to different forms of the dynamic rainfall model. Model performance is assessed using data from the Wardon Hill radar in Dorset for two convective events, on 10 June 1993 and 16 July 1995, when thunderstorms occurred over southern Britain. The results show that (i a simple advection-type forecast may be improved upon by using multiscan radar data in place of data from the lowest scan, and (ii advected, steady-state predictions from the dynamic model, using 'inferred updraughts', provides the best performance overall. Updraught velocity is inferred at the forecast origin from the last two radar fields, using the mass-balance equation and associated data and is held constant over the forecast period. This inference model proves superior to the buoyancy parameterisation of updraught employed in the original formulation. A selection of the different rainfall forecasts is used as input to a catchment flow forecasting model, the IH PDM (Probability Distributed Moisture model, to assess their effect on flow forecast accuracy for the 135 km2 Brue catchment

  3. Detecting short period variations in lava flux

    Science.gov (United States)

    James, M. R.; Pinkerton, H.

    2009-04-01

    Although the underpinning processes that govern the flow of lava have been recognized for some time, modeling the evolution of lava flow fields remains problematic due to the difficulties in fully constraining inputs to flow models. One of the main parameters controlling the evolution of individual flows is effusion rate, and long period effusion rate changes, such as flow-waning prior to the cessation of an eruption, can now be routinely incorporated in simulations. However, effusion rates commonly vary over a wide range of timescales (from years to minutes) and, for short period changes, neither the cause nor the effects are well understood. Nevertheless, short period changes can result in inaccuracies in the input data for simulations and can be responsible for altering flow directions by either building or breaching flow levees. Hence, understanding the processes involved in such changes is important for flow modeling and, furthermore, could eventually provide insight into flow instabilities within the conduit or variability within degassing processes. Observations of short period (e.g. identified in effusion rate data because of the generally low sampling frequency of such data. During the last week of July 2008, trail cameras were used to obtain dense time series imagery of the active lava flow at Mount Etna, Sicily. The trail cameras were modified to capture timelapse imagery by adding an interval timer which triggered image capture every 10 minutes. During daylight, the cameras collected 5 M-pixel colour images and, during nighttime, they automatically switched to a 2 M-pixel camera which collected (uncalibrated) black and white infrared images. For the color images, haze, cloud and sunglare combined with the low contrast between the active lava and its surroundings, prevented useful analysis. However, the infrared images captured at night clearly indicated the active flow areas and nighttime sequences covering the two main proximal lava channels detected

  4. Short period tidal variations of earth rotation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoder, C. F.; Williams, J. G.; Parke, M. E.; Dickey, J. O.

    1981-01-01

    It is explained that the tidal deformation of the earth's polar moment of inertia by the moon and sun cause periodic variations in rotation. The short period oscillations give rise to a meter-sized, diurnal signature in the lunar laser ranging data obtained at McDonald Observatory. A solution is given for the scale parameter k/C at fortnightly and monthly tidal frequencies. The results are compared with those obtained by other investigators and with a theoretical estimate which includes the effect of oceans and a decoupled fluid core.

  5. Using generalized linear models to estimate selectivity from short-term recoveries of tagged red drum Sciaenops ocellatus: Effects of gear, fate, and regulation period

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burdick, Summer M.; Hightower, Joseph E.; Bacheler, Nathan M.; Paramore, Lee M.; Buckel, Jeffrey A.; Pollock, Kenneth H.

    2010-01-01

    Estimating the selectivity patterns of various fishing gears is a critical component of fisheries stock assessment due to the difficulty in obtaining representative samples from most gears. We used short-term recoveries (n = 3587) of tagged red drum Sciaenops ocellatus to directly estimate age- and length-based selectivity patterns using generalized linear models. The most parsimonious models were selected using AIC, and standard deviations were estimated using simulations. Selectivity of red drum was dependent upon the regulation period in which the fish was caught, the gear used to catch the fish (i.e., hook-and-line, gill nets, pound nets), and the fate of the fish upon recovery (i.e., harvested or released); models including all first-order interactions between main effects outperformed models without interactions. Selectivity of harvested fish was generally dome-shaped and shifted toward larger, older fish in response to regulation changes. Selectivity of caught-and-released red drum was highest on the youngest and smallest fish in the early and middle regulation periods, but increased on larger, legal-sized fish in the late regulation period. These results suggest that catch-and-release mortality has consistently been high for small, young red drum, but has recently become more common in larger, older fish. This method of estimating selectivity from short-term tag recoveries is valuable because it is simpler than full tag-return models, and may be more robust because yearly fishing and natural mortality rates do not need to be modeled and estimated.

  6. Theoretical study of nitride short period superlattices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gorczyca, I.; Suski, T.; Christensen, N. E.; Svane, A.

    2018-02-01

    Discussion of band gap behavior based on first principles calculations of electronic band structures for various short period nitride superlattices is presented. Binary superlattices, as InN/GaN and GaN/AlN as well as superlattices containing alloys, as InGaN/GaN, GaN/AlGaN, and GaN/InAlN are considered. Taking into account different crystallographic directions of growth (polar, semipolar and nonpolar) and different strain conditions (free-standing and pseudomorphic) all the factors influencing the band gap engineering are analyzed. Dependence on internal strain and lattice geometry is considered, but the main attention is devoted to the influence of the internal electric field and the hybridization of well and barrier wave functions. The contributions of these two important factors to band gap behavior are illustrated and estimated quantitatively. It appears that there are two interesting ranges of layer thicknesses; in one (few atomic monolayers in barriers and wells) the influence of the wave function hybridization is dominant, whereas in the other (layers thicker than roughly five to six monolayers) dependence of electric field on the band gaps is more important. The band gap behavior in superlattices is compared with the band gap dependence on composition in the corresponding ternary and quaternary alloys. It is shown that for superlattices it is possible to exceed by far the range of band gap values, which can be realized in ternary alloys. The calculated values of the band gaps are compared with the photoluminescence emission energies, when the corresponding data are available. Finally, similarities and differences between nitride and oxide polar superlattices are pointed out by comparison of wurtzite GaN/AlN and ZnO/MgO.

  7. On the short periods oscillation in relativistic stars

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aquilano, R.; Morales, S.; Navone, H.; Sevilla, D.; Zorzi, A.

    2009-01-01

    We expand the study of neutron and strange matter stars with general relativistic formalism. We analyze the correlation with the observational data short periods oscillations in these stars, and we intend to discriminate between them.

  8. Desensitization to media violence over a short period of time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fanti, Kostas A; Vanman, Eric; Henrich, Christopher C; Avraamides, Marios N

    2009-01-01

    This study investigated the desensitization to violence over a short period of time. Participants watched nine violent movie scenes and nine comedy scenes, and reported whether they enjoyed the violent or comedy scenes and whether they felt sympathetic toward the victim of violence. Using latent growth modeling, analyses were carried out to investigate how participants responded to the different scenes across time. The findings of this study suggested that repeated exposure to media violence reduces the psychological impact of media violence in the short term, therefore desensitizing viewers to media violence. As a result, viewers tended to feel less sympathetic toward the victims of violence and actually enjoy more the violence portrayed in the media. Additionally, desensitization to media violence was better represented by a curvilinear pattern, whereas desensitization to comedy scenes was better represented by a linear pattern. Finally, trait aggression was not related to the pattern of change over time, although significant effects were found for initial reports of enjoyment and sympathy.

  9. How Do Earth-Sized, Short-Period Planets Form?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kohler, Susanna

    2017-08-01

    Matching theory to observation often requires creative detective work. In a new study, scientists have used a clever test to reveal clues about the birth of speedy, Earth-sized planets.Former Hot Jupiters?Artists impression of a hot Jupiter with an evaporating atmosphere. [NASA/Ames/JPL-Caltech]Among the many different types of exoplanets weve observed, one unusual category is that of ultra-short-period planets. These roughly Earth-sized planets speed around their host stars at incredible rates, with periods of less than a day.How do planets in this odd category form? One popular theory is that they were previously hot Jupiters, especially massive gas giants orbiting very close to their host stars. The close orbit caused the planets atmospheres to be stripped away, leaving behind only their dense cores.In a new study, a team of astronomers led by Joshua Winn (Princeton University) has found a clever way to test this theory.Planetary radius vs. orbital period for the authors three statistical samples (colored markers) and the broader sample of stars in the California Kepler Survey. [Winn et al. 2017]Testing MetallicitiesStars hosting hot Jupiters have an interesting quirk: they typically have metallicities that are significantly higher than an average planet-hosting star. It is speculated that this is because planets are born from the same materials as their host stars, and hot Jupiters require the presence of more metals to be able to form.Regardless of the cause of this trend, if ultra-short-period planets are in fact the solid cores of former hot Jupiters, then the two categories of planets should have hosts with the same metallicity distributions. The ultra-short-period-planet hosts should therefore also be weighted to higher metallicities than average planet-hosting stars.To test this, the authors make spectroscopic measurements and gather data for a sample of stellar hosts split into three categories:64 ultra-short-period planets (orbital period shorter than a

  10. Response of phytoplankton assemblages isolated for short periods ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The response of phytoplankton assemblages isolated in enclosures for short periods of time was examined in hyper-eutrophic Lake Chivero (Harare, Zimbabwe), to determine the factors that influenced the structure of the phytoplankton community, after noticing a marked decline in the dominance of Microcystis aeruginosa ...

  11. Magnetospheric Truncation, Tidal Inspiral, and the Creation of Short-period and Ultra-short-period Planets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Eve J.; Chiang, Eugene, E-mail: evelee@berkeley.edu [Department of Astronomy, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720-3411 (United States)

    2017-06-10

    Sub-Neptunes around FGKM dwarfs are evenly distributed in log orbital period down to ∼10 days, but dwindle in number at shorter periods. Both the break at ∼10 days and the slope of the occurrence rate down to ∼1 day can be attributed to the truncation of protoplanetary disks by their host star magnetospheres at corotation. We demonstrate this by deriving planet occurrence rate profiles from empirical distributions of pre-main-sequence stellar rotation periods. Observed profiles are better reproduced when planets are distributed randomly in disks—as might be expected if planets formed in situ—rather than piled up near disk edges, as would be the case if they migrated in by disk torques. Planets can be brought from disk edges to ultra-short (<1 day) periods by asynchronous equilibrium tides raised on their stars. Tidal migration can account for how ultra-short-period planets are more widely spaced than their longer-period counterparts. Our picture provides a starting point for understanding why the sub-Neptune population drops at ∼10 days regardless of whether the host star is of type FGK or early M. We predict planet occurrence rates around A stars to also break at short periods, but at ∼1 day instead of ∼10 days because A stars rotate faster than stars with lower masses (this prediction presumes that the planetesimal building blocks of planets can drift inside the dust sublimation radius).

  12. Mechanisms controlling primary and new production in a global ecosystem model – Part II: The role of the upper ocean short-term periodic and episodic mixing events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. E. Popova

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The use of 6 h, daily, weekly and monthly atmospheric forcing resulted in dramatically different predictions of plankton productivity in a global 3-D coupled physical-biogeochemical model. Resolving the diurnal cycle of atmospheric variability by use of 6 h forcing, and hence also diurnal variability in UML depth, produced the largest difference, reducing predicted global primary and new production by 25% and 10% respectively relative to that predicted with daily and weekly forcing. This decrease varied regionally, being a 30% reduction in equatorial areas primarily because of increased light limitation resulting from deepening of the mixed layer overnight as well as enhanced storm activity, and 25% at moderate and high latitudes primarily due to increased grazing pressure resulting from late winter stratification events. Mini-blooms of phytoplankton and zooplankton occur in the model during these events, leading to zooplankton populations being sufficiently well developed to suppress the progress of phytoplankton blooms. A 10% increase in primary production was predicted in the peripheries of the oligotrophic gyres due to increased storm-induced nutrient supply end enhanced winter production during the short term stratification events that are resolved in the run forced by 6 h meteorological fields. By resolving the diurnal cycle, model performance was significantly improved with respect to several common problems: underestimated primary production in the oligotrophic gyres; overestimated primary production in the Southern Ocean; overestimated magnitude of the spring bloom in the subarctic Pacific Ocean, and overestimated primary production in equatorial areas. The result of using 6 h forcing on predicted ecosystem dynamics was profound, the effects persisting far beyond the hourly timescale, and having major consequences for predicted global and new production on an annual basis.

  13. Staggered and short-period solutions of the saturable discrete nonlinear Schrodinger equation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Khare, A.; Rasmussen, K.O.; Samuelsen, Mogens Rugholm

    2009-01-01

    We point out that the nonlinear Schrodinger lattice with a saturable nonlinearity also admits staggered periodic aswell as localized pulse-like solutions. Further, the same model also admits solutions with a short period. We examine the stability of these solutions and find that the staggered...

  14. A survey for very short-period planets in the Kepler data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jackson, Brian; Stark, Christopher C.; Chambers, John; Adams, Elisabeth R.; Deming, Drake

    2013-01-01

    We conducted a search for very short-period transiting objects in the publicly available Kepler data set. Our preliminary survey has revealed four planetary candidates, all with orbital periods less than 12 hr. We have analyzed the data for these candidates using photometric models that include transit light curves, ellipsoidal variations, and secondary eclipses to constrain the candidates' radii, masses, and effective temperatures. Even with masses of only a few Earth masses, the candidates' short periods mean that they may induce stellar radial velocity signals (a few m s –1 ) detectable by currently operating facilities. The origins of such short-period planets are unclear, but we discuss the possibility that they may be the remnants of disrupted hot Jupiters. Whatever their origins, if confirmed as planets, these candidates would be among the shortest-period planets ever discovered. Such planets would be particularly amenable to discovery by the planned TESS mission.

  15. Studying Short-Period Comets and Long-Period Comets Detected by WISE/NEOWISE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kramer, Emily A.; Fernández, Yanga R.; Bauer, James M.; Stevenson, Rachel; Mainzer, Amy K.; Grav, Tommy; Masiero, Joseph; Walker, Russell G.; Lisse, Carey M.

    2014-11-01

    The Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE) mission surveyed the sky in four infrared wavelength bands (3.4, 4.6, 12 and 22-micron) between January 2010 and February 2011 [1, 2]. During the mission, WISE serendipitously observed 160 comets, including 21 newly discovered objects. About 89 of the comets observed by WISE displayed a significant dust tail in the 12 and 22-micron (thermal emission) bands, showing a wide range of activity levels and dust morphology. Since the observed objects are a mix of both long-period comets (LPCs) and short-period comets (SPCs), differences in their activity can be used to better understand the thermal evolution that each of these populations has undergone. For the comets that displayed a significant dust tail, we have estimated the sizes and ages of the particles using dynamical models based on the Finson-Probstein method [3, 4]. For a selection of 40 comets, we have then compared these models to the data using a novel tail-fitting method that allows the best-fit model to be chosen analytically rather than subjectively. For comets that were observed multiple times by WISE, the dust tail particle properties were estimated separately, and then compared. We find that the dust tails of both LPCs and SPCs are primarily comprised of ~mm to cm sized particles, which were the result of emission that occurred several months to several years prior to the observations. The LPCs nearly all have strong dust emission close to the comet's perihelion distance, and the SPCs mostly have strong dust emission close to perihelion, but some have strong dust emission well before perihelion. Acknowledgments: This publication makes use of data products from (1) WISE, which is a joint project of UCLA and JPL/Caltech, funded by NASA; and (2) NEOWISE, which is a project of JPL/Caltech, funded by the Planetary Science Division of NASA. EK was supported by a NASA Earth and Space Sciences Fellowship. RS gratefully acknowledges support from the NASA

  16. Periodization of Carbohydrate Intake: Short-Term Effect on Performance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laurie-Anne Marquet

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Background: “Sleep-low” consists of a sequential periodization of carbohydrate (CHO availability—low glycogen recovery after “train high” glycogen-depleting interval training, followed by an overnight-fast and light intensity training (“train low” the following day. This strategy leads to an upregulation of several exercise-responsive signaling proteins, but the chronic effect on performance has received less attention. We investigated the effects of short-term exposure to this strategy on endurance performance. Methods: Following training familiarization, 11 trained cyclists were divided into two groups for a one-week intervention—one group implemented three cycles of periodized CHO intake to achieve the sleep-low strategy over six training sessions (SL, CHO intake: 6 g·kg−1·day−1, whereas the control group consumed an even distribution of CHO over the day (CON. Tests were a 2 h submaximal ride and a 20 km time trial. Results: SL improved their performance (mean: +3.2%; p < 0.05 compared to CON. The improvement was associated with a change in pacing strategy with higher power output during the second part of the test. No change in substrate utilization was observed after the training period for either group. Conclusion: Implementing the “sleep-low” strategy for one week improved performance by the same magnitude previously seen in a three-week intervention, without any significant changes in selected markers of metabolism.

  17. A triple origin for the lack of tight coplanar circumbinary planets around short-period binaries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamers, Adrian; Perets, Hagai B.; Portegies Zwart, Simon

    2015-12-01

    Detection of transiting circumbinary planets is more tractable around short-period binaries. However, sofar, no such binaries have been found with orbits shorter than 7 days. Short-period main sequence binaries have been suggested to form in triple systems, through a combination of secular Kozai-Lidov cycles and tidal friction (KLCTF). Here, we show that coplanar circumbinary transiting planets are unlikely to exist around short-period binaries, due to triple evolution. We use secular analysis, N-body simulations and analytic considerations as well as population synthesis models to characterize their overall properties. We find that the existence of a circumbinary planet in a triple is likely to produce one of the following outcomes. (1) Sufficiently massive planets in tight and/or coplanar orbits around the inner binary can partially or completely quench the KL evolution, `shielding' the inner binary from the secular effects of the tertiary, and not allowing the KLCTF process to take place. In this case, the inner binary will not shrink to become a short-period binary. (2) KL evolution is not quenched and it drives the planetary orbit into high eccentricities, giving rise to an unstable configuration, in which the planet is most likely ejected from the system. (3) KL evolution is not quenched, but the planet survives the KLCTF evolution and the formation of the short-period binary; the planet orbit is likely to be much wider than the currently observed inner binary orbit, and is likely to be inclined in respect to the binary orbit, as well as eccentric. These outcomes lead to two main conclusions: (1) it is unlikely to find a (massive) planet on a tight and coplanar orbit around a short-period main-sequence binary, and (2) the frequency, masses and orbits of non-coplanar circumbinary planets in short-period binaries are constrained by their secular evolution.

  18. Weekend sleep intervention for workers with habitually short sleep periods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kubo, Tomohide; Takahashi, Masaya; Sato, Tomoaki; Sasaki, Takeshi; Oka, Tatsuo; Iwasaki, Kenji

    2011-09-01

    This study was conducted to determine whether extended sleep time during the weekend improves alertness and performance during the subsequent week for workers who are habitually short on sleep time. Daytime employees in the manufacturing industry [38.3, standard deviation (SD) 8.1 years old, mean weekday sleep ≤6 hours] participated in a study that lasted 3 successive weeks. Participants were instructed to stay in bed for ≥8 hours between 22:00-09:00 hours on weekends during the first week as a sleep intervention condition and keep their habitual sleep-wake patterns as a habitual weekend sleep condition beginning the weekend of the second week through Thursday of the third week. Half the participants underwent the conditions in one order and the other half in the reverse. Sleep was monitored by an actigraph. A psychomotor vigilance task, subjective fatigue, and blood pressure were measured on Monday and Thursday during the afternoon each week. Sleep duration on weekends was approximately 2 hours longer per day during the intervention. However, sleep duration during weekdays following the intervention returned to shorter periods. Significantly shorter reaction times and a smaller number of lapses on the psychomotor vigilance task were found on Mondays after the intervention than after the habitual weekend sleep. The opposite results, however, were observed on Thursdays. Sleep extension on weekends may be effective in improving alertness and performance during the first days in subsequent weeks among workers with short sleep times. These benefits might be maintained if sufficient sleep duration continues.

  19. The origin and fate of short-period low-mass black-hole binaries

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Yungelson, L.R.; Lasota, J.P.; Nelemans, G.A.; Dubus, G.; Heuvel, E.P.J. van den; Dewi, J.; Portegies Zwart, S.

    2006-01-01

    We present results of a population synthesis study for semidetached short orbital period binaries which contain low-mass (1.5 Mo) donors and massive ( 4 Mo) compact accretors, which in our model represent black holes. Evolution of these binaries is determined by nuclear

  20. Liquid Resin Infusion process monitoring with embedded superimposed long period and short period Bragg grating sensor.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert L.

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available We propose here the monitoring of the Liquid Resin Infusion (LRI process for using a superimposed long period (LPG and short period (FBG Bragg grating sensor. Monitoring of such a process is usually made measuring simultaneously temperature and strain by the use of an electro-optical device (FBG-Thermocouple. It has been shown that an applied solicitation is measured by a wavelength shift with a different sensitivity for LPG and FBG; thus strain and temperature influences can be determined separately by measuring corresponding wavelength shifts. The reported configuration is based on the use of these two Bragg gratings types written in the same fibre section, which allows us to discriminate the contributions of the temperature and strain. The sensor is embedded in a composite specimen manufactured by LRI process for monitoring in real time and simultaneously the applied temperature and strain.

  1. New serial time codes for seismic short period and long period data acquisition systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kolvankar, V.G.; Rao, D.S.

    1988-01-01

    This paper discusses a new time code for time indexing multichannel short period (1 to 25 hz) seismic event data recorded on a single track of magnetic tape in digital format and discusses its usefulness in contrast to Vela time code used in continuous analog multichannel data recording system on multitrack instrumentation tape deck. This paper also discusses another time code, used for time indexing of seismic long period (DC to 2.5 seconds) multichannel data recorded on a single track of magnetic tape in digital format. The time code decoding and display system developed to provide quick access to any desired portion of the tape in both data recording and repro duce system is also discussed. (author). 7 figs

  2. Short-Period Binary Stars: Observations, Analyses, and Results

    CERN Document Server

    Milone, Eugene F; Hobill, David W

    2008-01-01

    Short-period binaries run the gamut from widely separated stars to black-hole pairs; in between are systems that include neutron stars and white dwarfs, and partially evolved systems such as tidally distorted and over-contact systems. These objects represent stages of evolution of binary stars, and their degrees of separation provide critical clues to how their evolutionary paths differ from that of single stars. The widest and least distorted systems provide astronomers with the essential precise data needed to study all stars: mass and radius. The interactions of binary star components, on the other hand, provide a natural laboratory to observe how the matter in these stars behaves under different and often varying physical conditions. Thus, cataclysmic variables with and without overpoweringly strong magnetic fields, and stars with densities from that found in the Sun to the degenerate matter of white dwarfs and the ultra-compact states of neutron stars and black holes are all discussed. The extensive inde...

  3. Discovery of a new short-period, eclipsing cataclysmic variable

    Science.gov (United States)

    Downes, R. A.; Mateo, M.; Szkody, P.; Jenner, D. C.; Margon, B.

    1986-01-01

    Photometry and spectroscopy of a newly recognized 14th mag eclipsing cataclysmic variable, KPD 1911 + 1212 (= SVS 8130, V1315 Agl) are reported. The system exhibits deep (1.7 mag) eclipses with period 0.1397 day. The spectrum is that of a high-excitation old nova and shows dramatic variability of the emission line strengths through the eclipse. The profiles of the Balmer emission lines are also phase-dependent, with prominent absorption cores appearing briefly near the inferior conjunction of the emission line source. There is no direct evidence for the secondary. A preliminary determination of radial velocity variations at modest spectral resolution yields K = 132 + or - 26 km/s for the Balmer emission lines. A model is presented for the system consistent with current data, which implies a mass for the primary and secondary stars of 0.9 and 0.4 solar mass respectively and in inclination of i = 78 deg.

  4. Survival of a planet in short-period Neptunian desert under effect of photo-evaporation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ionov, Dmitry E.; Pavlyuchenkov, Yaroslav N.; Shematovich, Valery I.

    2018-03-01

    Despite the identification of a great number of Jupiter-like and Earth-like planets at close-in orbits, the number of "hot Neptunes" — the planets with 0.6-18 times of Neptune mass and orbital periods less than 3 days — turned out to be very small. The corresponding region in the mass-period distribution was assigned as the "short-period Neptunian desert". The common explanation of this fact is that the gaseous planet with few Neptune masses would not survive in the vicinity of host star due to intensive atmosphere outflow induced by heating from stellar radiation. To check this hypothesis we performed numerical simulations of atmosphere dynamics for a hot Neptune. We adopt the previously developed self-consistent 1D model of hydrogen-helium atmosphere with suprathermal electrons accounted. The mass-loss rates as a function of orbital distances and stellar ages are presented. We conclude that the desert of short-period Neptunes could not be entirely explained by evaporation of planet atmosphere caused by the radiation from a host star. For the less massive Neptune-like planet, the estimated upper limits of the mass loss may be consistent with the photo-evaporation scenario, while the heavier Neptune-like planets could not lose the significant mass through this mechanism. We also found the significant differences between our numerical results and widely used approximate estimates of the mass loss.

  5. Anomalous short period geomagnetic variations at two stations in Sri Lanka

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kunaratnam, K.

    1986-08-01

    An analysis of the rates of change in the geomagnetic field components in the period range 20-600 sec recorded at Kondavil and Hikkaduwa, two stations in the equatorial electrojet belt near the northern and south western coasts respectively of Sri Lanka, shows anomalous variations. The results confirm induced current concentration in the Palk Strait and deflection of induced currents around the southerncoast of Sri Lanka postulated by earlier workers from observations of SSC and Bay events at Indian stations and from analogue and numerical model studies. At Kondavil, which is situated close to the geomagnetic equator, no appreciable difference in the night-time and day-time values of ΔZ/ΔH and ΔD/ΔH ratios was noticed while at Hikkaduwa, a station situated under the edge of the equatorial electrojet belt, a day-time enhancement of ΔZ/ΔH ratios was found at all periods in the observed range. An enhancement of the H component at Colombo over that at Hikkaduwa was also found at short periods, the enhancement being greater at day-time. The day-time enhancement in the ΔZ/ΔH ratios at Hikkaduwa and in the ratio of the H components at Colombo and Hikkaduwa could be due to the effect of the equatorial electrojet on the short period variations. (author)

  6. Models of Short-Term Synaptic Plasticity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barroso-Flores, Janet; Herrera-Valdez, Marco A; Galarraga, Elvira; Bargas, José

    2017-01-01

    We focus on dynamical descriptions of short-term synaptic plasticity. Instead of focusing on the molecular machinery that has been reviewed recently by several authors, we concentrate on the dynamics and functional significance of synaptic plasticity, and review some mathematical models that reproduce different properties of the dynamics of short term synaptic plasticity that have been observed experimentally. The complexity and shortcomings of these models point to the need of simple, yet physiologically meaningful models. We propose a simplified model to be tested in synapses displaying different types of short-term plasticity.

  7. On the effect of topography on short-period ambient noise tomography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Köhler, A.; Weidle, C.; Maupin, V.

    2012-04-01

    Due to the increasing popularity of using empirical Green's functions obtained from ambient seismic noise, more and more regional tomographical studies based on short-periods surface waves are published. Results could potentially be biased in mountainous regions where topography is not small compared to the wavelength and penetration depth of the considered waves. We investigate the effect of topography on the propagation of short-period (3-10 seconds) Rayleigh waves empirically by means of synthetic data using a spectral element code and a 3-D model with real topography. We show that topography along a profile through the studied area can result in an underestimation of phase velocities of up to about 0.7% at the shortest investigated period (3 seconds). Contrary to the expectation that this bias results from the increased surface distance along topography, we find that this error can be estimated by local topographic contrasts in the vicinity of the receiver alone. We discuss and generalize our results by considering topographic profiles through other mountain ranges and find that southern Norway is a good proxy to assess the topography effect. Nevertheless, topographic bias on phase velocity measurements is in general not large enough to produce a significant effect on ambient noise tomographies.

  8. Models of sarcopenia: Short review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palus, S; Springer, J I; Doehner, W; von Haehling, S; Anker, M; Anker, S D; Springer, J

    2017-07-01

    Approximately 40-50% of the population over 80years of age suffers from sarcopenia making this condition a major geriatric clinical disorder and a key challenge to healthy aging. The hallmark symptom of sarcopenia is the loss of muscle mass and strength without the loss of overall body weight. Sarcopenic patients are likely to have worse clinical outcomes and higher mortality compared to healthy individuals. This review will focus on animal models designed to study sarcopenia including hind-limb unloading, de-nervation, and immobilization by using casts or wire strategies, as well as using aged rodents. Currently there are no registered treatments for sarcopenia. Most sarcopenic individuals show signs of physical frailty, which leads to increases the prevalence of balance disorders, falls, fractures and pain. Therefore, is it essential to develop and use relevant animal models to further the research on sarcopenia therapy? Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. The effect of short recovery period investment on least-cost generation system expansion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yiqun He; David, A.K.; Fernando, P.N.

    1995-01-01

    The effect of the short recovery period of private investment on least-cost generation system expansion is analysed, and a trade-off method for generation system expansion, which gives consideration to both the least-cost strategy and the short recovery period of private investment, is presented. First, the optimal mix of generation units under a standard recovery period for all units is established, and then the surcharge, due to the difference between the short recovery period and the standard recovery period, is calculated and shared between all units. The former is an optimization to make best use of natural resources, and the latter is a trade-off method to spread the surcharge throughout the system. (Author)

  10. Spectra of short-period pulsars according to the hypothesis of the two types of pulsars

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Malov, I.F.

    1985-01-01

    The lack of low-frequency turnovers in the spectra of PSR 0531+21 and 1937+21 may be expl ned if the generation of radio emission in these pulsars occurs near the light cylinder. Differences of high frequency cut-offs and spectral inoices for long-period pulsars and short-period ones are discussed

  11. A Search for Exoplanets in Short-Period Binary Star Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ronald Kaitchuck

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper reports the progress of a search for exoplanets with S-type orbits in short-period binary star systems. The selected targets have stellar orbital periods of just a few days. These systems are eclipsing binaries so that exoplanet transits, if planets exist, will be highly likely. We report the results for seven binary star systems.

  12. Effects of age, gender, and stimulus presentation period on visual short-term memory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kunimi, Mitsunobu

    2016-01-01

    This study focused on age-related changes in visual short-term memory using visual stimuli that did not allow verbal encoding. Experiment 1 examined the effects of age and the length of the stimulus presentation period on visual short-term memory function. Experiment 2 examined the effects of age, gender, and the length of the stimulus presentation period on visual short-term memory function. The worst memory performance and the largest performance difference between the age groups were observed in the shortest stimulus presentation period conditions. The performance difference between the age groups became smaller as the stimulus presentation period became longer; however, it did not completely disappear. Although gender did not have a significant effect on d' regardless of the presentation period in the young group, a significant gender-based difference was observed for stimulus presentation periods of 500 ms and 1,000 ms in the older group. This study indicates that the decline in visual short-term memory observed in the older group is due to the interaction of several factors.

  13. Are Trojan collisional families a source for short-period comets?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marzari, F.; Farinella, P.; Vanzani, V.

    1995-07-01

    We have investigated the dynamical evolution of fragments generated by the impact breakup of Trojan asteroids, in order to study the formation of collisional families in the Trojan clouds and to identify a possible genetic connection between these fragments and the population of short-period comets. Using a collisional model based on the results of high-velocity laboratory impact experiments and previously applied to main-belt asteroid families, we show that typical family-forming Trojan collisions eject a significant percentage (at least =~20%) of the resulting fragments onto unstable orbits. Numerical integrations of the orbits of such fictitious, unstable Trojan fragments show that soon they experience close encounters with Jupiter, and as a consequence they become undistinguishable from those of Jupiter-family comets (some of which are currently close to the 1:1 Jovian resonance), of comets undergoing temporary satellite captures by Jupiter (such as P/Shoemaker-Levy 9), and of objects with Jupiter-crossing or -approaching orbits (such as 944 Hidalgo, 2060 Chiron, 5145 Pholus and 3552 Don Quixote). A reliable assessment of the efficiency of the transfer process from the Trojan clouds into comet-type orbits and of its time dependence is difficult, owing in particular to the poorly known size distribution of Trojans. However, an order-of-magnitude estimate suggests that if the fragment flux from the Trojan clouds over the last =~10^6^yr has been close to the average one over the solar system's lifetime, then a few tens of the 160 known short-period comets might have been generated by Trojan collisions.

  14. SHORT COMMUNICATIONA Cubic Power Potential Model for ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    SHORT COMMUNICATIONA Cubic Power Potential Model for Baryonium. L. K. Sharma. Full Text: EMAIL FULL TEXT EMAIL FULL TEXT · DOWNLOAD FULL TEXT DOWNLOAD FULL TEXT · http://dx.doi.org/10.4314/dai.v11i1.15528 · AJOL African Journals Online. HOW TO USE AJOL... for Researchers · for Librarians · for ...

  15. Constraining seismic velocity features combining short and long period signals: Test ground is Turkey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bulut, Fatih; Eken, Tuna; Yolsal-Çevikbilen, Seda; Taymaz, Tuncay

    2015-04-01

    Verifying the seismic velocity models requires combining different techniques to obtain more reliable basement for further steps, e.g., earthquake location, moment tensor analysis etc. Especially, 2D/3D heterogeneities and velocity contrasts are the key unknowns to be addressed in order to achieve the best-possible setup for further analysis. In that frame, short and long period signals are combined to better constrain the unusual velocity features. Our approach employs P-wave particle motions and receiver functions to discriminate the velocity structure of different crustal blocks. P-wave particle motions are basically used to differentiate direction of incoming waves, which is an indirect measure of potential velocity contrast/heterogeneity in horizontal axis. In the meanwhile, P-wave receiver functions are used to estimate frequency dependent S-wave velocities at different crustal spots. Turkey, seismically the most active region in Europe, is selected to be the test ground for joint analysis scheme. The region has been continuously monitored by AFAD (Prime Ministry, Ankara) and Kandilli Observatory (Boğaziçi Üniversity, Istanbul). Furthermore, some particular regions have been densely monitored for a couple of years by temporary seismic networks, e.g., the IRIS network deployed in the frame of the North Anatolian Fault experiment. We integrated all available data to reach to the highest possible coverage for selected test sites. The results are jointly interpreted to refine existing crustal models in Turkey.

  16. Evaluation of short-period rainfall estimates from Kalpana-1 satellite ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    estimates by the GPI technique using data of the Kalpana-1 satellite, over the Indian region for the south-west monsoon season of 2010 to understand their relative strengths and weaknesses in estimating short period rainfall. The gridded 3 hourly accumulated TRMM satellite (3B42 V6 product or TMPA product) and surface ...

  17. Effect of a short period whole body vibration with 10 Hz on blood ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Effect of a short period whole body vibration with 10 Hz on blood biomarkers in Wistar rats. ... they might contribute to try to understand better these mechanisms that occur following exposure to a frequency of 10Hz. Keywords: whole-body vibration, biomarkers, Wistar rats, oscillating/vibratory platform, mechanical vibration ...

  18. Evaluation of short-period rainfall estimates from Kalpana-1 satellite

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The INSAT Multispectral Rainfall Algorithm (IMSRA) technique for rainfall estimation, has recently been developed to meet the shortcomings of the Global Precipitation Index (GPI) technique of rainfall estimation from the data of geostationary satellites; especially for accurate short period rainfall estimates. This study ...

  19. PLANET HUNTERS: ASSESSING THE KEPLER INVENTORY OF SHORT-PERIOD PLANETS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schwamb, Megan E.; Lintott, Chris J.; Lynn, Stuart; Smith, Arfon M.; Simpson, Robert J.; Fischer, Debra A.; Giguere, Matthew J.; Brewer, John M.; Parrish, Michael; Schawinski, Kevin

    2012-01-01

    We present the results from a search of data from the first 33.5 days of the Kepler science mission (Quarter 1) for exoplanet transits by the Planet Hunters citizen science project. Planet Hunters enlists members of the general public to visually identify transits in the publicly released Kepler light curves via the World Wide Web. Over 24,000 volunteers reviewed the Kepler Quarter 1 data set. We examine the abundance of ≥2 R ⊕ planets on short-period ( ⊕ Planet Hunters ≥85% efficient at identifying transit signals for planets with periods less than 15 days for the Kepler sample of target stars. Our high efficiency rate for simulated transits along with recovery of the majority of Kepler ≥4 R ⊕ planets suggests that the Kepler inventory of ≥4 R ⊕ short-period planets is nearly complete.

  20. Harmonic radiation emission from periodic lattices irradiated by short-pulse elliptically polarized laser light.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ondarza-Rovira, R; Boyd, T J

    2001-10-01

    Radiated emission at high-order harmonic numbers is observed from thin crystalline layers irradiated by short femtosecond elliptically polarized laser light. The applied external radiation field drives the free electrons in the material to large oscillation amplitudes and harmonics are generated by the electronic response to the periodic lattice potential. A model was modified by introducing a more general expression for the lattice force that by sharpening or by smoothing the potential in turn allows the strength of the electronic perturbation to be varied. The electron motion is computed numerically by solving the electromagnetic force equation and by regarding the lattice potential as a perturbative source. For linearly polarized laser light the radiation spectra are characterized by emission lines forming a flat plateau in the region of low harmonic orders with a sharp cutoff for higher numbers. For circular polarization strong emission is found for two harmonic numbers, the first in the low-harmonic region and the second around the cutoff. By solving analytically the electron motion in an elliptically polarized laser field, an exact expression for the electron displacement in all three spatial directions is found. The amplitude of the oscillations sets the analytic form for calculating the peak harmonic numbers emitted from the laser-lattice interaction. The radiation effect studied here, if detected, might hold some potential as a diagnostic and could be used, in principle, as a method for determining the lattice parameter in crystalline structures.

  1. Ultra-short period X-ray mirrors: Production and investigation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bibishkin, M.S.; Chkhalo, N.I.; Fraerman, A.A.; Pestov, A.E.; Prokhorov, K.A.; Salashchenko, N.N.; Vainer, Yu.A.

    2005-01-01

    Technological problems that deal with manufacturing of highly effective ultra-short (d=0.7-3.2 nm) period X-ray multilayer mirrors (MLM) are discussed in the article. In an example of Cr/Sc and W/B 4 C MLM it is experimentally shown, that the problem of periodicity and selectivity for multilayer dispersive X-ray elements has been generally solved by now. However, the problem of short-period MLM reflectivity increase related to existing of transitive borders between layers in structures remains rather urgent. The new technique of tungsten deposition using the RF source in order to decrease roughness in borders is discussed and tested. The results of measurements on wavelengths of 0.154, 0.834 and 1.759 nm are given. The RbAP crystals ordinary used in experiments and short-period W/B 4 C MLM produced are compared. The specular and non-specular characteristics of scattering on the 0.154 nm wavelengths are also measured in order to study transitive borders structures

  2. Model documentation report: Short-Term Hydroelectric Generation Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-08-01

    The purpose of this report is to define the objectives of the Short- Term Hydroelectric Generation Model (STHGM), describe its basic approach, and to provide details on the model structure. This report is intended as a reference document for model analysts, users, and the general public. Documentation of the model is in accordance with the Energy Information Administration's (AYE) legal obligation to provide adequate documentation in support of its models (Public Law 94-385, Section 57.b.2). The STHGM performs a short-term (18 to 27- month) forecast of hydroelectric generation in the United States using an autoregressive integrated moving average (UREMIA) time series model with precipitation as an explanatory variable. The model results are used as input for the short-term Energy Outlook

  3. Short-term forecasting model for aggregated regional hydropower generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Monteiro, Claudio; Ramirez-Rosado, Ignacio J.; Fernandez-Jimenez, L. Alfredo

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Original short-term forecasting model for the hourly hydropower generation. • The use of NWP forecasts allows horizons of several days. • New variable to represent the capacity level for generating hydroelectric energy. • The proposed model significantly outperforms the persistence model. - Abstract: This paper presents an original short-term forecasting model of the hourly electric power production for aggregated regional hydropower generation. The inputs of the model are previously recorded values of the aggregated hourly production of hydropower plants and hourly water precipitation forecasts using Numerical Weather Prediction tools, as well as other hourly data (load demand and wind generation). This model is composed of three modules: the first one gives the prediction of the “monthly” hourly power production of the hydropower plants; the second module gives the prediction of hourly power deviation values, which are added to that obtained by the first module to achieve the final forecast of the hourly hydropower generation; the third module allows a periodic adjustment of the prediction of the first module to improve its BIAS error. The model has been applied successfully to the real-life case study of the short-term forecasting of the aggregated hydropower generation in Spain and Portugal (Iberian Peninsula Power System), achieving satisfactory results for the next-day forecasts. The model can be valuable for agents involved in electricity markets and useful for power system operations

  4. Complexity analyses show two distinct types of nonlinear dynamics in short heart period variability recordings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porta, Alberto; Bari, Vlasta; Marchi, Andrea; De Maria, Beatrice; Cysarz, Dirk; Van Leeuwen, Peter; Takahashi, Anielle C. M.; Catai, Aparecida M.; Gnecchi-Ruscone, Tomaso

    2015-01-01

    Two diverse complexity metrics quantifying time irreversibility and local prediction, in connection with a surrogate data approach, were utilized to detect nonlinear dynamics in short heart period (HP) variability series recorded in fetuses, as a function of the gestational period, and in healthy humans, as a function of the magnitude of the orthostatic challenge. The metrics indicated the presence of two distinct types of nonlinear HP dynamics characterized by diverse ranges of time scales. These findings stress the need to render more specific the analysis of nonlinear components of HP dynamics by accounting for different temporal scales. PMID:25806002

  5. Short-rotation woody-crops program. Quarterly progress report for period ending August 31, 1981

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cushman, J.H.; Ranney, J.W.

    1982-04-01

    Progress of twenty-one projects in the Short Rotation Woody Crops Program is summarized for the period June 1 through August 31, 1981. Individual quarterly reports included from each of the projects discuss accomplishments within specific project objectives and identify recent papers and publications resulting from the research. The major program activities are species screening and genetic selection, stand establishment and cultural treatment, and harvest, collection, transportation, and storage.

  6. Short-rotation woody-crops program. Quarterly progress report for period ending May 31, 1981

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cushman, J.H.; Ranney, J.W.

    1982-04-01

    Progress of twenty projects in the Short Rotation Woody Crops Program is summarized for the period March 1 through May 31, 1981. Individual quarterly reports included from each of the projects discuss accomplishments within specific project objectives and identify recent papers and publications resulting from the research. The major project activities are species screening and genetic selection, stand establishment and cultural treatment, and harvest, collection, transportation, and storage.

  7. Hydrostatic pressure and strain effects in short period InN/GaN superlattices

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gorczyca, I.; Suski, T.; Christensen, Niels Egede

    2012-01-01

    The electronic structures of short-period pseudomorphically grown superlattices (SLs) of the form mInN/nGaN are calculated and the band gap variation with the well and the barrier thicknesses is discussed including hydrostatic pressure effects. The calculated band gap shows a strong dependence...... strongly on the strain conditions and SL geometry, but weakly on the applied external hydrostatic pressure....

  8. Modeling Timbre Similarity of Short Music Clips.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siedenburg, Kai; Müllensiefen, Daniel

    2017-01-01

    There is evidence from a number of recent studies that most listeners are able to extract information related to song identity, emotion, or genre from music excerpts with durations in the range of tenths of seconds. Because of these very short durations, timbre as a multifaceted auditory attribute appears as a plausible candidate for the type of features that listeners make use of when processing short music excerpts. However, the importance of timbre in listening tasks that involve short excerpts has not yet been demonstrated empirically. Hence, the goal of this study was to develop a method that allows to explore to what degree similarity judgments of short music clips can be modeled with low-level acoustic features related to timbre. We utilized the similarity data from two large samples of participants: Sample I was obtained via an online survey, used 16 clips of 400 ms length, and contained responses of 137,339 participants. Sample II was collected in a lab environment, used 16 clips of 800 ms length, and contained responses from 648 participants. Our model used two sets of audio features which included commonly used timbre descriptors and the well-known Mel-frequency cepstral coefficients as well as their temporal derivates. In order to predict pairwise similarities, the resulting distances between clips in terms of their audio features were used as predictor variables with partial least-squares regression. We found that a sparse selection of three to seven features from both descriptor sets-mainly encoding the coarse shape of the spectrum as well as spectrotemporal variability-best predicted similarities across the two sets of sounds. Notably, the inclusion of non-acoustic predictors of musical genre and record release date allowed much better generalization performance and explained up to 50% of shared variance ( R 2 ) between observations and model predictions. Overall, the results of this study empirically demonstrate that both acoustic features related

  9. Observation of short period fluctuation of CygX-1 with balloon

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nakagawa, Michio; Sakurai, Takahisa; Uchida, Masayoshi

    1977-01-01

    CygX-1 presents very complex short period fluctuation of X-ray, therefore the hard X-ray was especially observed in 1972 and 1973 with large balloons, and the data were analyzed. This short period fluctuation and energy spectra of CygX-1 in the normal and flare time bands were compared. The observing apparatuses consisted of the 3 in diameter NaI detector and a high pressure proportional counter. The observing method is to turn the gondora alternately to the directions of source (ON) and background (OFF). As for the data analysis, the events at ON and OFF in the observation data in 1972 and 1973 were plotted for time interval. The background component is in agreement with Poisson's distribution, but source component is not. This difference for Poisson's distribution means the behavior of CygX-1. The power spectrum was analyzed, and the strong power density was observed at 5.4 x 10 -2 Hz in ON, but such power density was not observed in OFF. Accordingly this is presumed to be caused by CygX-1. The events for time interval in flare time are shown. The rise of about 2.9 σ exists at 80 msec. The count rates were compared for photon energy in the normal and flare times. The short period fluctuation of hard X-ray from CygX-1 deviates from Poisson's distribution and is different in the normal and flare times. (Nakai, Y.)

  10. Layering of Structure in the North American Upper Mantle: Combining Short Period Constraints and Full Waveform Tomography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roy, C.; Calo, M.; Bodin, T.; Romanowicz, B. A.

    2016-12-01

    Recent receiver function (RF) studies of the north American craton suggest the presence of layering within the cratonic lithosphere with significant lateral variations in the depth. However, the location and character of these discontinuities depends on assumptions made on a background 3D velocity model. On the other hand, the implementation of the Spectral Element Method (SEM) for the computation of the seismic wavefield in 3D structures is allowing improved resolution of volumetric structure in full waveform tomography. The corresponding computations are however very heavy and limit our ability to attain short enough periods to resolve short scale features such as the existence and lateral variations of discontinuities. In order to overcome these limitations, we have developed a methodology that combines full waveform inversion tomography and information provided by short period seismic observables. In a first step we constructed a 3D discontinuous radially anisotropic starting model combining 1D models calculated using RF and L and R wave dispersion data in a Bayesian framework using trans-dimensional MCMC inversion at a collection of 30 stations across the north American continent (Calò et al., 2016). This model was then interpolated and smoothed using a procedure based on residual homogenization (Capdeville et al. 2013) and serves as input model for full waveform tomography using a three-component waveform dataset previously collected (Yuan et al., 2014). The homogenization is necessary to avoid meshing problems and heavy SEM computations. In a second step, several iterations of the full waveform inversion are performed until convergence, using a regional SEM code for forward computations (RegSEM, Cupillard et al., 2012). Results of the inversion are volumetric velocity perturbations around the homogenized starting model, which are then added to the discontinuous 3D starting model. The final result is a multiscale discontinuous model containing both short and

  11. Herbivore Larval Development at Low Springtime Temperatures: The Importance of Short Periods of Heating in the Field

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Esther Müller

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Temperature has been shown to play an important role in the life cycles of insects. Early season feeders in Palaearctic regions profit by the high nutritional quality of their host plants early in the year, but face the problem of having to develop at low average springtime temperatures. This study examines the influence of short periods of heating in the field on larval development and on mortality with the model system Galeruca tanaceti L. (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae, an early season feeder, that hatches at low springtime temperatures. Field and laboratory experiments under different constant and variable temperature regimes were performed. While in the field, the average daily temperature was close to the lower developmental threshold of the species of 10.9°C; maximum temperatures of above 30°C were sometimes reached. Larvae developed significantly faster, and pupae were heavier, in the field and in an assay with short periods of heating than at the same average temperature under constant conditions in the laboratory. We conclude that larvae profit substantially from short periods of heating and temperature variation in the field and that intervals of high temperature enable insect survival and exploitation of nutrient-rich food resources at early times in the season.

  12. Strain effects in GaN/AlN short-period superlattices for intersubband optoelectronics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jalabert, Denis; Bellet-Amalric, Edith; Lahourcade, Lise; Monroy, Eva [CEA-CNRS Group Nanophysique et Semiconducteurs, CEA-Grenoble INAC/ SP2M, 17 rue des Martyrs, 38054 Grenoble (France); Bougerol, Catherine [CEA-CNRS Group Nanophysique et Semiconducteurs, Institut Neel, 25 rue des Martyrs, 38042 Grenoble (France); Kandaswamy, Prem Kumar

    2009-06-15

    In this work we report on the strain relaxation processes in GaN/AlN short-period superlattices (SLs) displaying intersubband transitions at 1.55{mu}m. The growth process was tuned to minimize the strain relaxation in the superlattices either by plastic or elastic channels. X-ray diffraction measurements show that the SL final strain state is substrate independent. The relaxation path followed by the SLs was traced in situ with reflection high-energy electron diffraction, which reveals an initial transient strain state of about 12 periods to accommodate the lattice mismatch. Once steady-state conditions are attained, we observe a periodic relaxation process with generation of misfit dislocations at the GaN/AlN interface. The relaxation process in the SLs has been confirmed by various characterization tools. (copyright 2009 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH and Co. KGaA, Weinheim) (orig.)

  13. Jordan cells of periodic loop models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morin-Duchesne, Alexi; Saint-Aubin, Yvan

    2013-01-01

    Jordan cells in transfer matrices of finite lattice models are a signature of the logarithmic character of the conformal field theories that appear in their thermodynamical limit. The transfer matrix of periodic loop models, T N , is an element of the periodic Temperley–Lieb algebra EPTL N (β,α), where N is the number of sites on a section of the cylinder, and β = −q − q −1 = 2cos λ and α the weights of contractible and non-contractible loops. The thermodynamic limit of T N is believed to describe a conformal field theory of central charge c = 1 − 6λ 2 /(π(λ − π)). The abstract element T N acts naturally on (a sum of) spaces V-tilde N d , similar to those upon which the standard modules of the (classical) Temperley–Lieb algebra act. These spaces known as sectors are labeled by the numbers of defects d and depend on a twist parameter v that keeps track of the winding of defects around the cylinder. Criteria are given for non-trivial Jordan cells of T N both between sectors with distinct defect numbers and within a given sector. (paper)

  14. Silicon nanoparticle synthesis by short-period thermal anneals at atmospheric pressure in argon

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spencer, Gregory; Anyamesem-Mensah, Benedict; Galloway, Heather C.; Bandyopadhyay, Anup; Frasier, Daniel

    2011-01-01

    Silicon nanoparticles have been studied for a wide variety of applications including nanoelectronic, photovoltaic, and optoelectronic devices. In this work, silicon nanoparticles were synthesized by short-period annealing of silicon-on-insulator substrates to temperatures ranging between 600 and 900 deg. C in argon gas at atmospheric pressure. Two different top silicon layers were deposited by ion-beam sputtering onto oxidized substrates. The thinner 6 nm top layer samples were annealed to temperatures for 30 s periods while thicker 15 nm top layer samples were annealed for 60 s periods. For both sets of samples, nanoparticles were observed to form at all the anneal temperatures through imaging by AFM. One long-period UHV anneal study, with 30-min anneal times, observed nanoparticle formation at temperatures similar to the current work while another similar long-period UHV anneal reported nanoparticle formation only above well-defined formation temperatures that depended upon the starting top layer thickness. In the current work, the average nanoparticle radius was found to increase both with the final anneal temperature and anneal period. For the highest anneal temperatures of the 6 nm top layer samples, a changing surface topography indicated that the thinner Si source layer was becoming depleted and the nanoparticle formation process was nearing completion. No such changes were observed for the thicker 15 nm samples at the same temperatures.

  15. THE SHORT ROTATION PERIOD OF HI’IAKA, HAUMEA’S LARGEST SATELLITE

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hastings, Danielle M.; Margot, Jean-Luc [University of California, Los Angeles, Department of Earth, Planetary, and Space Sciences, 595 Charles Young Drive East, Los Angeles, CA 90095 (United States); Ragozzine, Darin [Florida Institute of Technology, Department of Physics and Space Sciences, 150 West University Boulevard, Melbourne, FL 32901 (United States); Fabrycky, Daniel C. [Department of Astronomy and Astrophysics, University of Chicago, 5640 South Ellis Avenue, Chicago, IL 60637 (United States); Burkhart, Luke D.; Holman, Matthew [Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, 60 Garden Street, Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States); Fuentes, Cesar [Departamento de Astronomía, Universidad de Chile, Camino El Observatorio 1515, Santiago (Chile); Brown, Michael E., E-mail: dhastings@g.ucla.edu [California Institute of Technology, Division of Geological and Planetary Sciences, MC 150-21, Pasadena, CA 91125 (United States)

    2016-12-01

    Hi’iaka is the larger outer satellite of the dwarf planet Haumea. Using relative photometry from the Hubble Space Telescope and Magellan and a phase dispersion minimization analysis, we have identified the rotation period of Hi’iaka to be ∼9.8 hr (double peaked). This is ∼120 times faster than its orbital period, creating new questions about the formation of this system and possible tidal evolution. The rapid rotation suggests that Hi’iaka could have a significant obliquity and spin precession that could be visible in light curves within a few years. We then turn to an investigation of what we learn about the (currently unclear) formation of the Haumea system and family based on this unexpectedly rapid rotation rate. We explore the importance of the initial semimajor axis and rotation period in tidal evolution theory and find that they strongly influence the time required to despin to synchronous rotation, relevant to understanding a wide variety of satellite and binary systems. We find that despinning tides do not necessarily lead to synchronous spin periods for Hi’iaka, even if it formed near the Roche limit. Therefore, the short rotation period of Hi’iaka does not rule out significant tidal evolution. Hi’iaka’s spin period is also consistent with formation near its current location and spin-up due to Haumea-centric impactors.

  16. Mott transitions in the periodic Anderson model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Logan, David E; Galpin, Martin R; Mannouch, Jonathan

    2016-01-01

    The periodic Anderson model (PAM) is studied within the framework of dynamical mean-field theory, with particular emphasis on the interaction-driven Mott transition it contains, and on resultant Mott insulators of both Mott–Hubbard and charge-transfer type. The form of the PAM phase diagram is first deduced on general grounds using two exact results, over the full range of model parameters and including metallic, Mott, Kondo and band insulator phases. The effective low-energy model which describes the PAM in the vicinity of a Mott transition is then shown to be a one-band Hubbard model, with effective hoppings that are not in general solely nearest neighbour, but decay exponentially with distance. This mapping is shown to have a range of implications for the physics of the problem, from phase boundaries to single-particle dynamics; all of which are confirmed and supplemented by NRG calculations. Finally we consider the locally degenerate, non-Fermi liquid Mott insulator, to describe which requires a two-self-energy description. This is shown to yield a number of exact results for the associated local moment, charge, and interaction-renormalised levels, together with a generalisation of Luttinger’s theorem to the Mott insulator. (paper)

  17. Absence of a Metallicity Effect for Ultra-short-period Planets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Winn, Joshua N. [Department of Astrophysical Sciences, Princeton University, 4 Ivy Lane, Princeton, NJ 08540 (United States); Sanchis-Ojeda, Roberto; Isaacson, Howard; Marcy, Geoffrey W. [Department of Astronomy, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720 (United States); Rogers, Leslie [Department of Astronomy and Astrophysics, University of Chicago, 5640 South Ellis Avenue, Chicago, IL 60637 (United States); Petigura, Erik A.; Howard, Andrew W. [Department of Astronomy, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91125 (United States); Schlaufman, Kevin C. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21218 (United States); Cargile, Phillip [Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, 60 Garden Street, Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States); Hebb, Leslie [Hobart and William Smith Colleges, Geneva, NY 14456 (United States)

    2017-08-01

    Ultra-short-period (USP) planets are a newly recognized class of planets with periods shorter than one day and radii smaller than about 2  R {sub ⊕}. It has been proposed that USP planets are the solid cores of hot Jupiters that have lost their gaseous envelopes due to photo-evaporation or Roche lobe overflow. We test this hypothesis by asking whether USP planets are associated with metal-rich stars, as has long been observed for hot Jupiters. We find the metallicity distributions of USP-planet and hot-Jupiter hosts to be significantly different ( p = 3 × 10{sup −4}) based on Keck spectroscopy of Kepler stars. Evidently, the sample of USP planets is not dominated by the evaporated cores of hot Jupiters. The metallicity distribution of stars with USP planets is indistinguishable from that of stars with short-period planets with sizes between 2 and 4  R {sub ⊕}. Thus, it remains possible that the USP planets are the solid cores of formerly gaseous planets that are smaller than Neptune.

  18. Absence of a Metallicity Effect for Ultra-short-period Planets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Winn, Joshua N.; Sanchis-Ojeda, Roberto; Isaacson, Howard; Marcy, Geoffrey W.; Rogers, Leslie; Petigura, Erik A.; Howard, Andrew W.; Schlaufman, Kevin C.; Cargile, Phillip; Hebb, Leslie

    2017-01-01

    Ultra-short-period (USP) planets are a newly recognized class of planets with periods shorter than one day and radii smaller than about 2  R ⊕ . It has been proposed that USP planets are the solid cores of hot Jupiters that have lost their gaseous envelopes due to photo-evaporation or Roche lobe overflow. We test this hypothesis by asking whether USP planets are associated with metal-rich stars, as has long been observed for hot Jupiters. We find the metallicity distributions of USP-planet and hot-Jupiter hosts to be significantly different ( p = 3 × 10 −4 ) based on Keck spectroscopy of Kepler stars. Evidently, the sample of USP planets is not dominated by the evaporated cores of hot Jupiters. The metallicity distribution of stars with USP planets is indistinguishable from that of stars with short-period planets with sizes between 2 and 4  R ⊕ . Thus, it remains possible that the USP planets are the solid cores of formerly gaseous planets that are smaller than Neptune.

  19. Non-radial oscillations of rotating stars and their relevance to the short-period oscillations of cataclysmic variables

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Papaloizou, J.; Pringle, J.E.

    1978-01-01

    The usual hypothesis, that the short-period coherent oscillations seen in cataclysmic variables are attributable to g modes in a slowly rotating white dwarf, is considered. It is shown that this hypothesis is untenable for three main reasons: (i) the observed periods are too short for reasonable white dwarf models, (ii) the observed variability of the oscillations is too rapid and (iii) the expected rotation of the white dwarf, due to accretion, invalidates the slow rotation assumption on which standard g-mode theory is based. The low-frequency spectrum of a rotating pulsating star is investigated taking the effects of rotation fully into account. In this case there are two sets of low-frequency modes, the g modes, and modes similar to Rossby waves in the Earth's atmosphere and oceans, which are designated r modes. Typical periods for such modes are 1/m times the rotation period of the white dwarfs outer layers (m is the aximuthal wavenumber). It is concluded that non-radial oscillations of rotating white dwarfs can account for the properties of the oscillations seen in dwarf novae. Application of these results to other systems is also discussed. (author)

  20. Propagation of short-period gravity waves at high-latitudes during the MaCWAVE winter campaign

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Nielsen

    2006-07-01

    Full Text Available As part of the MaCWAVE (Mountain and Convective Waves Ascending Vertically winter campaign an all-sky monochromatic CCD imager has been used to investigate the properties of short-period mesospheric gravity waves at high northern latitudes. Sequential measurements of several nightglow emissions were made from Esrange, Sweden, during a limited period from 27–31 January 2003. Coincident wind measurements over the altitude range (~80–100 km using two meteor radar systems located at Esrange and Andenes have been used to perform a novel investigation of the intrinsic properties of five distinct wave events observed during this period. Additional lidar and MSIS model temperature data have been used to investigate their nature (i.e. freely propagating or ducted. Four of these extensive wave events were found to be freely propagating with potential source regions to the north of Scandinavia. No evidence was found for strong orographic forcing by short-period waves in the airglow emission layers. The fifth event was most unusual exhibiting an extensive, but much smaller and variable wavelength pattern that appeared to be embedded in the background wind field. Coincident wind measurements indicated the presence of a strong shear suggesting this event was probably due to a large-scale Kelvin-Helmholtz instability.

  1. Epitaxial nanowire formation in metamorphic GaAs/GaPAs short-period superlattices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Nan; Ahrenkiel, S. Phillip

    2017-07-01

    Metamorphic growth presents routes to novel nanomaterials with unique properties that may be suitable for a range of applications. We discuss self-assembled, epitaxial nanowires formed during metalorganic chemical vapor deposition of metamorphic GaAs/GaPAs short-period superlattices. The heterostructures incorporate strain-engineered GaPAs compositional grades on 6°-B miscut GaAs substrates. Lateral diffusion within the SPS into vertically aligned, three-dimensional columns results in nanowires extending along A directions with a lateral period of 70-90 nm. The microstructure is probed by transmission electron microscopy to confirm the presence of coherent GaAs nanowires within GaPAs barriers. The compositional profile is inferred from analysis of {200} dark-field image contrast and lattice images.

  2. Role of short periodic orbits in quantum maps with continuous openings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prado, Carlos A.; Carlo, Gabriel G.; Benito, R. M.; Borondo, F.

    2018-04-01

    We apply a recently developed semiclassical theory of short periodic orbits to the continuously open quantum tribaker map. In this paradigmatic system the trajectories are partially bounced back according to continuous reflectivity functions. This is relevant in many situations that include optical microresonators and more complicated boundary conditions. In a perturbative regime, the shortest periodic orbits belonging to the classical repeller of the open map—a cantor set given by a region of exactly zero reflectivity—prove to be extremely robust in supporting a set of long-lived resonances of the continuously open quantum maps. Moreover, for steplike functions a significant reduction in the number needed is obtained, similarly to the completely open situation. This happens despite a strong change in the spectral properties when compared to the discontinuous reflectivity case. In order to give a more realistic interpretation of these results we compare with a Fresnel-type reflectivity function.

  3. Dust environment and dynamical history of a sample of short-period comets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pozuelos, F. J.; Moreno, F.; Aceituno, F.; Casanova, V.; Sota, A.; López-Moreno, J. J.; Castellano, J.; Reina, E.; Diepvens, A.; Betoret, A.; Häusler, B.; Gonález, C.; Rodríguez, D.; Bryssinck, E.; Cortés, E.; García, F.; García, F.; Limón, F.; Grau, F.; Fratev, F.; Baldrís, F.; Rodriguez, F. A.; Montalbán, F.; Soldán, F.; Muler, G.; Almendros, I.; Temprano, J.; Bel, J.; Sánchez, J.; Lopesino, J.; Báez, J.; Hernández, J. F.; Martín, J. L.; Ruiz, J. M.; Vidal, J. R.; Gaitán, J.; Salto, J. L.; Aymamí, J. M.; Bosch, J. M.; Henríquez, J. A.; Martín, J. J.; Lacruz, J.; Tremosa, L.; Lahuerta, L.; Reszelsky, M.; Rodríguez, M.; Camarasa, M.; Campas, M.; Canales, O.; Dekelver, P. J.; Moreno, Q.; Benavides, R.; Naves, R.; Dymoc, R.; García, R.; Lahuerta, S.; Climent, T.

    2014-08-01

    Aims: In this work, we present an extended study of the dust environment of a sample of short-period comets and their dynamical history. With this aim, we characterize the dust tails when the comets are active, and we make a statistical study to determine their dynamical evolution. The targets selected were 22P/Kopff, 30P/Reinmuth 1, 78P/Gehrels 2, 115P/Maury, 118P/Shoemaker-Levy 4, 123P/West-Hartley, 157P/Tritton, 185/Petriew, and P/2011 W2 (Rinner). Methods: We use two different observational data sets: a set of images taken at the Observatorio de Sierra Nevada and, the Afρ curves provided by the amateur astronomical association Cometas-Obs. To model these observations, we use our Monte Carlo dust tail code. From this analysis, we derive the dust parameters, which best describe the dust environment: dust loss rates, ejection velocities, and size distribution of particles. On the other hand, we use a numerical integrator to study the dynamical history of the comets, which allows us to determine with a 90% confidence level the time spent by these objects in the region of Jupiter family comets. Results: From the Monte Carlo dust tail code, we derived three categories according to the amount of dust emitted: weakly active (115P, 157P, and Rinner), moderately active (30P, 123P, and 185P), and highly active (22P, 78P, and 118P). The dynamical studies showed that the comets of this sample are young in the Jupiter family region, where the youngest ones are 22P (~100 yr), 78P (~500 yr), and 118P (~600 yr). The study points to a certain correlation between comet activity and time spent in the Jupiter family region, although this trend is not always fulfilled. The largest particle sizes are not tightly constrained, so that the total dust mass derived should be regarded as a lower limit. Appendices are available in electronic form at http://www.aanda.org

  4. Research of short-period variations of virtual height of ionosphere layers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akchurin, Adel; Bochkarev, Vladimir

    Some results of research of non-uniform structure of an ionosphere (generally for day time conditions) by digital ionosonde "Cyclon" are presented. The virtual height measurements were made by method with the increased accuracy. The technique of multipulse sounding realized on ionosonde "Cyclon" allows getting of the altitude accuracy up to 300 m. Such accuracy, in turn, enables to investigate more thin elements of non-uniform structure of the ionosphere. All measurements of reflection heights (generally from F layer) were made at fixed frequencies concern to quiet day time conditions for several day in August 2008 and February 2010. Measurements were carried out with a one-minute periodicity at ten frequencies in range of 3-3.45 MHz in August and 2.5-4.2 MHz in February. The analysis of time series of virtual heights (on the fixed working frequencies) was performed by an estimation of power spectral density on the basis of algorithm of multiple signal classification (MUSIC). The given method spectral estimation concerns to a class of the spectral methods based on the analysis of own values of an autocorrelation matrix. It provides the best characteristics of the resolution and estimation of frequencies in comparison with autoregressive method and Prony's method, is especial at low signal to noise ratio when these methods are not capable to resolve relatives on frequency of a sinusoid or other narrow-band spectral components. For series of measurements in August with one-minute periodicity the spectral analysis has revealed the basic the period of 15-20 minutes (both for F layer and for Es layer). Except for the basic period in spectra there are peaks at T 10, 35, 180 minutes (for F layer) and T 6 minutes (for Es layer). There are no predominant variations among the more short-period fluctuations.

  5. SHORT-PERIOD g-MODE PULSATIONS IN LOW-MASS WHITE DWARFS TRIGGERED BY H-SHELL BURNING

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Córsico, A. H.; Althaus, L. G., E-mail: acorsico@fcaglp.unlp.edu.ar [Grupo de Evolución Estelar y Pulsaciones, Facultad de Ciencias Astronómicas y Geofísicas, Universidad Nacional de La Plata, Paseo del Bosque s/n, 1900 La Plata (Argentina)

    2014-09-20

    The detection of pulsations in white dwarfs with low mass offers the possibility of probing their internal structures through asteroseismology and placing constraints on the binary evolutionary processes involved in their formation. In this Letter, we assess the impact of stable H burning on the pulsational stability properties of low-mass He-core white dwarf models resulting from binary star evolutionary calculations. We found that besides a dense spectrum of unstable radial modes and nonradial g and p modes driven by the κ mechanism due to the partial ionization of H in the stellar envelope, some unstable g modes with short pulsation periods are also powered by H burning via the ε mechanism of mode driving. This is the first time that ε destabilized modes are found in models representative of cool white dwarf stars. The short periods recently detected in the pulsating low-mass white dwarf SDSS J111215.82+111745.0 could constitute the first evidence of the existence of stable H burning in these stars, in particular in the so-called extremely low-mass white dwarfs.

  6. Planet X and the origins of the shower and steady state flux of short-period comets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matese, J.J.; Whitmire, D.P.

    1986-01-01

    An extensive analysis of the planet X model is presented. Unlike prior analyses, it takes into account the fact that only those comets scattered directly into the zones of influence (ZOI) of Saturn and Jupiter can contribute to a shower whose duration is in agreement with observation. It is predicted that some of the comets scattered directly into ZOI of Uranus and Neptune wiwll evolve on time scales of about 100 million years into the steady state flux of short-period comets. The absolute numbers of shower and steady state comets were found to be comparable with the known terrestrial cratering rate, assuming the existence of long-lived extinct comet cores. Canonical planet X model parameters are given, and it is suggested that planet X, in its present orbit, can create the requisite density gradient of comets near perihelion and aphelion during the lifetime of the solar system. It is concluded that the existence of planet X and the comet disk can explain the origin of the steady state flux of short-period comets over a wide range of parameters. 43 references

  7. THE FREQUENCY OF LOW-MASS EXOPLANETS. III. TOWARD η+ AT SHORT PERIODS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wittenmyer, Robert A.; Tinney, C. G.; Bailey, J.; Horner, J.; Butler, R. P.; O'Toole, Simon J.; Jones, H. R. A.; Carter, B. D.

    2011-01-01

    Determining the occurrence rate of 'super-Earth' planets (m sin i + ) is a critically important step on the path toward determining the frequency of Earth-like planets (η + ), and hence the uniqueness of our solar system. Current radial-velocity surveys, achieving precisions of 1 m s -1 , are now able to detect super-Earths and provide meaningful estimates of their occurrence rate. We present an analysis of 67 solar-type stars from the Anglo-Australian Planet Search specifically targeted for very high precision observations. When corrected for incompleteness, we find that the planet occurrence rate increases sharply with decreasing planetary mass. Our results are consistent with those from other surveys: in periods shorter than 50 days, we find that 3.0% of stars host a giant (msin i > 100 M + ) planet, and that 17.4% of stars host a planet with msin i + . The preponderance of low-mass planets in short-period orbits is in conflict with formation simulations in which the majority of super-Earths reside at larger orbital distances. This work gives a hint as to the size of η + , but to make meaningful predictions on the frequency of terrestrial planets in longer, potentially habitable orbits, low-mass terrestrial planet searches at periods of 100-200 days must be made an urgent priority for ground-based Doppler planet searches in the years ahead.

  8. Seismic Coupling of Short-Period Wind Noise Through Mars' Regolith for NASA's InSight Lander

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teanby, N. A.; Stevanović, J.; Wookey, J.; Murdoch, N.; Hurley, J.; Myhill, R.; Bowles, N. E.; Calcutt, S. B.; Pike, W. T.

    2017-10-01

    NASA's InSight lander will deploy a tripod-mounted seismometer package onto the surface of Mars in late 2018. Mars is expected to have lower seismic activity than the Earth, so minimisation of environmental seismic noise will be critical for maximising observations of seismicity and scientific return from the mission. Therefore, the seismometers will be protected by a Wind and Thermal Shield (WTS), also mounted on a tripod. Nevertheless, wind impinging on the WTS will cause vibration noise, which will be transmitted to the seismometers through the regolith (soil). Here we use a 1:1-scale model of the seismometer and WTS, combined with field testing at two analogue sites in Iceland, to determine the transfer coefficient between the two tripods and quantify the proportion of WTS vibration noise transmitted through the regolith to the seismometers. The analogue sites had median grain sizes in the range 0.3-1.0 mm, surface densities of 1.3-1.8 g cm^{-3}, and an effective regolith Young's modulus of 2.5^{+1.9}_{-1.4} MPa. At a seismic frequency of 5 Hz the measured transfer coefficients had values of 0.02-0.04 for the vertical component and 0.01-0.02 for the horizontal component. These values are 3-6 times lower than predicted by elastic theory and imply that at short periods the regolith displays significant anelastic behaviour. This will result in reduced short-period wind noise and increased signal-to-noise. We predict the noise induced by turbulent aerodynamic lift on the WTS at 5 Hz to be ˜2×10^{-10} ms^{-2} Hz^{-1/2} with a factor of 10 uncertainty. This is at least an order of magnitude lower than the InSight short-period seismometer noise floor of 10^{-8} ms^{-2} Hz^{-1/2}.

  9. Lithospheric layering in the North American craton revealed by including Short Period Constraints in Full Waveform Tomography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roy, C.; Calo, M.; Bodin, T.; Romanowicz, B. A.

    2017-12-01

    Recent receiver function studies of the North American craton suggest the presence of significant layering within the cratonic lithosphere, with significant lateral variations in the depth of the velocity discontinuities. These structural boundaries have been confirmed recently using a transdimensional Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach (TMCMC), inverting surface wave dispersion data and converted phases simultaneously (Calò et al., 2016; Roy and Romanowicz 2017). The lateral resolution of upper mantle structure can be improved with a high density of broadband seismic stations, or with a sparse network using full waveform inversion based on numerical wavefield computation methods such as the Spectral Element Method (SEM). However, inverting for discontinuities with strong topography such as MLDS's or LAB, presents challenges in an inversion framework, both computationally, due to the short periods required, and from the point of view of stability of the inversion. To overcome these limitations, and to improve resolution of layering in the upper mantle, we are developing a methodology that combines full waveform inversion tomography and information provided by short period seismic observables. We have extended the 30 1D radially anisotropic shear velocity profiles of Calò et al. 2016 to several other stations, for which we used a recent shear velocity model (Clouzet et al., 2017) as constraint in the modeling. These 1D profiles, including both isotropic and anisotropic discontinuities in the upper mantle (above 300 km depth) are then used to build a 3D starting model for the full waveform tomographic inversion. This model is built after 1) homogenization of the layered 1D models and 2) interpolation between the 1D smooth profiles and the model of Clouzet et al. 2017, resulting in a smooth 3D starting model. Waveforms used in the inversion are filtered at periods longer than 30s. We use the SEM code "RegSEM" for forward computations and a quasi-Newton inversion

  10. Optical studies on a series of AlAs/GaAs short period superlattices

    CERN Document Server

    Oh, M S; Kim, Y D; Woo, D H; Koh, E H; Kim, S H; Kang, K N; Rhee, S J; Woo, J C

    1999-01-01

    We present optical studies of a series of GaAs/AlAs short period superlattices (SLs) grown by Molecular Beam Epitaxy (MBE). The structural properties were examined by X-ray diffraction measurements. Quantum confinement of the electronic states was observed in the low temperature photoluminescence (PL). Spectroscopic ellipsometric (SE) measurements were also performed to determine energies of the interband transitions at room temperature. As n increase, we found that the lower transition energies (below 4.0 eV) decrease. The results are compared with low temperature photoluminescence measurements. We found a new structure at the lower E sub 2 peak, which demonstrates the best resolution of the E sub 2 structure in these SLs so far obtained by SE.

  11. Transfer of training on manual control systems differing in short period frequency and damping characteristics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lincoln, R. S.

    1978-01-01

    Each of four groups of 16 subjects was trained on one of four compensatory tracking tasks that differed with regard to short period natural frequency and damping characteristics. After completion of the training sessions, the members of each group either transferred to a task on which they had not been trained or continued with their original task. Analysis of the training data indicated that relative task difficulty was largely determined by system damping which, however, had little effect on the amount of transfer during the transfer trials. The effect of system frequency was essentially reversed, and a marked interaction between training and transfer frequencies was observed in the transfer data. Similar results were obtained both with relative error scores and transinformation scores. Positive transfer was exhibited by most of the groups when they transferred to tasks on which they had not been trained.

  12. Ultra-short-period WC/SiC multilayer coatings for x-ray applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fernández-Perea, Mónica; Pivovaroff, Mike J.; Soufli, Regina; Alameda, Jennifer; Mirkarimi, Paul; Descalle, Marie-Anne; Baker, Sherry L.; McCarville, Tom; Ziock, Klaus; Hornback, Donald; Romaine, Suzanne; Bruni, Ric; Zhong, Zhong; Honkimäki, Veijo; Ziegler, Eric; Christensen, Finn E.; Jakobsen, Anders C.

    2013-01-01

    Multilayer coatings enhance x-ray mirror performance at incidence angles steeper than the critical angle, allowing for improved flux, design flexibility and facilitating alignment. In an attempt to extend the use of multilayer coatings to photon energies higher than previously achieved, we have developed multilayers with ultra-short periods between 1 and 2 nm based on the material system WC/SiC. This material system was selected because it possesses very sharp and stable interfaces. In this article, we show highlights from a series of experiments performed in order to characterize the stress, microstructure and morphology of the multilayer films, as well as their reflective performance at photon energies from 8 to 384 keV

  13. Short term climate variability during "Roman Classical Period" in the eastern Mediterranean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Liang; Zonneveld, Karin A. F.; Versteegh, Gerard J. M.

    2011-12-01

    To obtain insight into character and potential forcing of short-term climatic and oceanographic variability in the southern Italian region during the "Roman Classical Period" (60 BC-AD 200), climatic and environmental reconstructions based on a dinoflagelate cyst record from a well dated site in the Gulf of Taranto located at the distal end of the Po-river discharge plume have been established with high temporal resolution. Short-term fluctuations in accumulation rates of the Adriatic Surface Water species Lingulodinium machaerophorum, the freshwater algae Concentricystes and species resistant to aerobic degradation indicate that fluctuations in the trophic state of the upper waters are related to river discharge of northern and eastern Italian rivers which in turn are strongly related to precipitation in Italy. The dinoflagellate cyst association indicates that local sea surface temperatures which in this region are strongly linked to local air temperatures were slightly higher than today. We reconstruct that sea surface temperatures have been relatively high and stable between 60 BC-AD 90 and show a decreasing trend after AD 90. Fluctuations in temperature and river discharge rates have a strong cyclic character with main cyclicities of 7-8 and 11 years. We argue that these cycles are related to variations of the North Atlantic Oscillation climate mode. A strong correlation is observed with global variation in Δ 14C anomalies suggesting that solar variability might be one of the major forcings of the regional climate. Apart from cyclic climate variability we observed a good correlation between non-cyclic temperature drops and global volcanic activity indicating that the latter forms an additional major forcing factor of the southern Italian climate during the Roman Classical Period.

  14. Optimal parametric modelling of measured short waves

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Mandal, S.

    The spectral analysis of measured short waves can efficiently be carried out by the fast Fourier transform technique. Even though many present techniques can be used for the simulation of time series waves, these may not provide accurate...

  15. First spectral measurements of a cryogenic high-field short-period undulator

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Holy

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Further development of synchrotron light sources and new concepts for free electron lasers require undulators with short periods and high magnetic fields. A promising approach is the cryogenic permanent magnet undulator concept based on an advanced magnet material. This new rare earth alloy (Pr,Nd_{2}Fe_{14}B, shows an increasing remanent field of up to 1.7 T without the limits of spin reorientation transition. This work presents first spectral measurements of a prototype cryogenic permanent magnet undulator, consisting of 20 periods of 9 mm in length, cooled by a closed cycle cryo-cooler to temperatures below 30 K. The K parameter of 0.837 at RT is increased by more than 15% to 0.966, and an increase of the third harmonics photon flux of up to 66% was achieved. A possible degradation of the on-axis field quality due to thermally induced magnetic field errors, deduced from the measured bandwidth of the spectrum, is below the limits of the detector resolution of 2%.

  16. Error analysis of short term wind power prediction models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Giorgi, Maria Grazia; Ficarella, Antonio; Tarantino, Marco

    2011-01-01

    The integration of wind farms in power networks has become an important problem. This is because the electricity produced cannot be preserved because of the high cost of storage and electricity production must follow market demand. Short-long-range wind forecasting over different lengths/periods of time is becoming an important process for the management of wind farms. Time series modelling of wind speeds is based upon the valid assumption that all the causative factors are implicitly accounted for in the sequence of occurrence of the process itself. Hence time series modelling is equivalent to physical modelling. Auto Regressive Moving Average (ARMA) models, which perform a linear mapping between inputs and outputs, and Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference Systems (ANFIS), which perform a non-linear mapping, provide a robust approach to wind power prediction. In this work, these models are developed in order to forecast power production of a wind farm with three wind turbines, using real load data and comparing different time prediction periods. This comparative analysis takes in the first time, various forecasting methods, time horizons and a deep performance analysis focused upon the normalised mean error and the statistical distribution hereof in order to evaluate error distribution within a narrower curve and therefore forecasting methods whereby it is more improbable to make errors in prediction. (author)

  17. Use of 7Be to document soil erosion associated with a short period of extreme rainfall

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sepulveda, A.; Schuller, P.; Walling, D.E.; Castillo, A.

    2008-01-01

    Intensification and expansion of agricultural production since the 1970s have increased soil erosion problems in south-central Chile. Quantitative information on soil loss is needed for erosion risk assessment and to establish the effectiveness of improved land management practices. Since information from traditional sources, such as erosion plots, is limited, attention has been directed to the use of environmental radionuclides for documenting erosion rates. Cs-137 has been successfully utilised for this purpose, but only provides information on medium-term erosion rates. There is also a need to document event-related soil erosion. This paper outlines the basis for using 7 Be measurements to document short-term erosion and reports its successful use for quantifying the erosion that occurred within an arable field, as a result of a period of heavy rainfall (400 mm in 27 days) occurring in May 2005. The study field had been under a no-till, no-burning system for 18 years, but immediately prior to the period of heavy rainfall the harvest residues were burnt. The erosion recorded therefore reflected both the extreme nature of the rainfall and the effects of the burning in increasing surface runoff and erosion. The sampled area corresponded to that used previously by the authors to document the medium-term erosion rates associated with both conventional tillage and the subsequent switch to a no-till system. Comparisons between the erosion documented for the period of heavy rainfall in 2005 with these medium-term erosion rates permits some tentative conclusions regarding the importance of extreme events and the impact of burning in increasing the erosion associated with the no-till system

  18. The K2-ESPRINT Project V: A Short-period Giant Planet Orbiting a Subgiant Star*

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Eylen, Vincent; Albrecht, Simon; Gandolfi, Davide; Dai, Fei; Winn, Joshua N.; Hirano, Teriyuki; Narita, Norio; Bruntt, Hans; Prieto-Arranz, Jorge; Béjar, Víctor J. S.; Nowak, Grzegorz; Lund, Mikkel N.; Palle, Enric; Ribas, Ignasi; Sanchis-Ojeda, Roberto; Yu, Liang; Arriagada, Pamela; Butler, R. Paul; Crane, Jeffrey D.; Handberg, Rasmus; Deeg, Hans; Jessen-Hansen, Jens; Johnson, John A.; Nespral, David; Rogers, Leslie; Ryu, Tsuguru; Shectman, Stephen; Shrotriya, Tushar; Slumstrup, Ditte; Takeda, Yoichi; Teske, Johanna; Thompson, Ian; Vanderburg, Andrew; Wittenmyer, Robert

    2016-11-01

    We report on the discovery and characterization of the transiting planet K2-39b (EPIC 206247743b). With an orbital period of 4.6 days, it is the shortest-period planet orbiting a subgiant star known to date. Such planets are rare, with only a handful of known cases. The reason for this is poorly understood but may reflect differences in planet occurrence around the relatively high-mass stars that have been surveyed, or may be the result of tidal destruction of such planets. K2-39 (EPIC 206247743) is an evolved star with a spectroscopically derived stellar radius and mass of {3.88}-0.42+0.48 {R}⊙ and {1.53}-0.12+0.13 {M}⊙ , respectively, and a very close-in transiting planet, with a/{R}\\star =3.4. Radial velocity (RV) follow-up using the HARPS, FIES, and PFS instruments leads to a planetary mass of {50.3}-9.4+9.7 {M}\\oplus . In combination with a radius measurement of 8.3+/- 1.1 {R}\\oplus , this results in a mean planetary density of {0.50}-0.17+0.29 g cm-3. We furthermore discover a long-term RV trend, which may be caused by a long-period planet or stellar companion. Because K2-39b has a short orbital period, its existence makes it seem unlikely that tidal destruction is wholly responsible for the differences in planet populations around subgiant and main-sequence stars. Future monitoring of the transits of this system may enable the detection of period decay and constrain the tidal dissipation rates of subgiant stars. Based on observations made with the NOT telescope under program ID. 50-022/51-503, 50-213(CAT), 52-201 (CAT), 52-108 (OPTICON), 51-211 (CAT), and ESOs 3.6 m telescope at the La Silla Paranal Observatory under program ID 095.C-0718(A).

  19. Short-period surface-wave phase velocities across the conterminous United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ekström, G.

    2017-09-01

    Surface-wave phase-velocity maps for the full footprint of the USArray Transportable Array (TA) across the conterminous United States are developed and tested. Three-component, long-period continuous seismograms recorded on more than 1800 seismometers, most of which were deployed for 18 months or longer, are processed using a noise cross-correlation technique to derive inter-station Love and Rayleigh dispersion curves at periods between 5 and 40 s. The phase-velocity measurements are quality controlled using an automated algorithm and then used in inversions for Love and Rayleigh phase-velocity models at discrete periods on a 0.25°-by-0.25° pixel grid. The robustness of the results is examined using comparisons of maps derived from subsets of the data. A winter-summer division of the cross-correlation data results in small model differences, indicating relatively minor sensitivity of the results to seasonal variations in the distribution of noise sources. Division of the dispersion data based on inter-station azimuth does not result in geographically coherent model differences, suggesting that azimuthal anisotropy at the regional scale is weak compared with variations in isotropic velocities and does not substantially influence the results for isotropic velocities. The phase-velocity maps and dispersion measurements are documented and made available as data products of the 10-year-long USArray TA deployment.

  20. The aeration period of a model nuclear waste repository

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sharland, S.M.; Tasker, P.W.

    1987-02-01

    We have constructed a model of the evolution of oxygen in a cement backfill which includes both its depletion through the canister corrosion reactions and its migration in the cement pores. The results indicate that the duration in which mild steel waste canisters may be subject to localised corrosion is very much shorter than the intended lifetime of the repository components, provided there is no external source of oxygen. For canisters spaced 1.2m apart, the model predicts a maximum aeration period of approximately 65 years, assuming high oxygen content and diffusivity in the backfill and low leakage current on the canisters (0.01 μA cm -2 ). In such a case a reducing environment is established throughout the backfill within this period. Under conditions of more restricted oxygen transport, reducing conditions are still established within a relatively short time in the immediate vicinity of the canisters, but the oxidation potential elsewhere in the backfill is then controlled by the uniform corrosion rate of the canisters. (author)

  1. Persistence of pathogens with short infectious periods in seasonal tick populations: the relative importance of three transmission routes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Etsuko Nonaka

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The flaviviruses causing tick-borne encephalitis (TBE persist at low but consistent levels in tick populations, despite short infectious periods in their mammalian hosts and transmission periods constrained by distinctly seasonal tick life cycles. In addition to systemic and vertical transmission, cofeeding transmission has been proposed as an important route for the persistence of TBE-causing viruses. Because cofeeding transmission requires ticks to feed simultaneously, the timing of tick activity may be critical to pathogen persistence. Existing models of tick-borne diseases do not incorporate all transmission routes and tick seasonality. Our aim is to evaluate the influence of seasonality on the relative importance of different transmission routes by using a comprehensive mathematical model. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We developed a stage-structured population model that includes tick seasonality and evaluated the relative importance of the transmission routes for pathogens with short infectious periods, in particular Powassan virus (POWV and the related "deer tick virus," emergent encephalitis-causing flaviviruses in North America. We used the next generation matrix method to calculate the basic reproductive ratio and performed elasticity analyses. We confirmed that cofeeding transmission is critically important for such pathogens to persist in seasonal tick populations over the reasonable range of parameter values. At higher but still plausible rates of vertical transmission, our model suggests that vertical transmission can strongly enhance pathogen prevalence when it operates in combination with cofeeding transmission. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our results demonstrate that the consistent prevalence of POWV observed in tick populations could be maintained by a combination of low vertical, intermediate cofeeding and high systemic transmission rates. When vertical transmission is weak, nymphal ticks support integral parts of

  2. Lakes as a Source of Short-Period (0.5-2 sec) Microseisms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koper, K. D.; Xu, Y.; Burlacu, R.

    2017-12-01

    We identify and document microseisms produced by wave action in six lakes: The Great Slave Lake, Lake Ontario, Yellowstone Lake, Dianchi Lake, Fuxian Lake, and Erhai Lake. The lakes span more than two orders of magnitude in size (areas of 210-27,000 km2) and sample a range of climatic and tectonic regimes in Canada, the U.S., and China. Lake generated microseisms create spectral peaks at periods near 1 s and are often polarized as Rayleigh waves propagating away from the lake. In contrast to ocean generated microseisms, lake generated microseisms are only observed within about 25-30 km of the shoreline. This is consistent with the well-known high attenuation of short-period Rayleigh waves (Rg). It is unclear if lake generated microseisms are produced by a linear shoaling process, analogous to primary ocean microseisms, or a non-linear wave-wave interaction process, analogous to secondary ocean microseisms. If they are mainly produced by shoaling, lake generated microseisms might provide a spatially integrated measure of shoreline erosion. From our preliminary results, lake generated microseisms appear to provide a record of ice phenology for lakes that freeze in the winter. Such data could contribute to assessing the effects of climate change on high-latitude lakes in remote areas. Finally, it is likely that lake generated microseisms are useful for imaging the geological structure of the shallow crust—information that is important for quantifying seismic hazard and can be difficult to obtain in urban areas where active source imaging is not feasible.

  3. Lakes as a Source of Short-Period (0.5-2 s) Microseisms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Yan; Koper, Keith D.; Burlacu, Relu

    2017-10-01

    We identify and document microseisms produced by wave action in six lakes: The Great Slave Lake, Lake Ontario, Yellowstone Lake, Dianchi Lake, Fuxian Lake, and Erhai Lake. The lakes span more than 2 orders of magnitude in size (areas of 210-27,000 km2) and sample a range of climatic and tectonic regimes in Canada, the U.S., and China. Lake-generated microseisms create spectral peaks at periods near 1 s and are often polarized as Rayleigh waves propagating away from the lake. In contrast to ocean-generated microseisms, lake-generated microseisms are only observed within about 25-30 km of the shoreline. This is consistent with the well-known high attenuation of short-period Rayleigh waves (Rg). It is unclear if lake-generated microseisms are produced by a linear shoaling process, analogous to primary ocean microseisms, or a nonlinear wave-wave interaction process, analogous to secondary ocean microseisms. If they are mainly produced by shoaling, lake-generated microseisms might provide a spatially integrated measure of shoreline erosion. Regardless of the source mechanism, lake-generated microseisms appear to provide a record of ice phenology for lakes that freeze in the winter. Such data could contribute to assessing the effects of climate change on high-latitude lakes in remote areas. Finally, it is likely that lake-generated microseisms are useful for imaging the geological structure of the shallow crust, information that is important for quantifying seismic hazard and can be difficult to obtain in urban areas where active source imaging is not feasible.

  4. Effects of Short Term Camp Periods on Aerobic and Anaerobic Performance Parameters in Ice Hockey National Team Athletes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eler, Serdar

    2016-01-01

    This study was conducted for determining the effects of trainings, applied to athletes during short term camp period, on their aerobic and anaerobic performance. Measurements were made by the participation of 28 volunteer male ice hockey national team players. During the 15-day camp period, 10-minute running and stretching for warming and then…

  5. BVRcIc Study of the Short Period Solar Type, Near Contact Binary, NSVS 10083189

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samec, R. G.; Olsen, A.; Caton, D. B.; Faulkner, D. R.; Hill, R. L.

    2017-12-01

    The first precision BVRcIc light curves of NSVS 10083189 were taken on eight nights in 2015 at Dark Sky Observatory in North Carolina with the 0.81-m reflector of Appalachian State University and on one night on the SARA 1-m reflector at Kitt Peak National Observatory in remote mode. It is an F8V eclipsing binary with a short period of 0.4542238 (2) d. Seven times of minimum light were calculated. In addition, seven observations at minima were determined from archived NSVS Data. A statistically significant negative quadratic ephemeris was calculated. A light curve analysis with the Wilson-Devinney program led to a semidetached-near contact configuration (larger component filling its critical lobe and the secondary just under filing). This may indicate that NSVS 10083189 is near the end of its Detached to Contact Binary Channel. Our synthetic light curve solution gave a mass ratio of 0.58, with component temperatures of 6250 and 4573 K. A 15° radius cool spot with a T-factor of 0.85 was determined on the primary star. Thus, magnetic braking may be its main process acting in the orbital evolution. The fill-out of the secondary star has apparently reached 99%.

  6. Orbital evolution of dormant short-period near-Earth comet candidates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wlodarczyk, Ireneusz

    2017-01-01

    We computed the dynamical orbital evolution of 23 dormant short-period near-Earth comet candidates (NECs) during 1 Gy forward and backward integrations. We show that most of the NECs that impact the Sun have starting orbital element eccentricities and inclinations with greater values. In contrast, objects that mainly escape our Solar System have smaller starting eccentricities and inclinations. Moreover, we observed that the majority of objects are controlled by the aphelion of Mars or Earth and by the perihelion of Jupiter. It is interesting that the presented NECs lie around a 2:1 mean motion resonance (MMR) with Jupiter, and are bounded by a 3:1 MMR with Jupiter. We also studied the orbital evolution of these objects without and with the Yarkovsky effect. It appeared that the average dynamical half-time is about 1.5 My for the near-Earth comets and is almost the same during forward and backward integrations. Moreover, the orbital evolution of NECs almost does not depend on the Yarkovsky effect. The mean maximum dynamical lifetime of clones of these objects is about 70 My for all studied cases.

  7. The nature and origin of lateral composition modulations in short-period strained-layer superlattices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Norman, A. G.; Ahrenkiel, S. P.; Moutinho, H. R.; Ballif, C.; Al-Jassim, M. M.; Mascarenhas, A.; Follstaedt, D. M.; Lee, S. R.; Reno, J. L.; Jones, E. D.; Mirecki-Millunchick, J.; Twesten, R. D.

    2000-02-28

    The nature and origin of lateral composition modulations in (AlAs){sub m}(InAs){sub n} short-period strained-layer superlattices (SPS) grown by molecular-beam epitaxy on InP substrates have been investigated by X-ray diffraction, atomic force microscopy, and transmission electron microscopy. Strong modulations were observed for growth temperatures between approximately 540 and 560 C. The maximum strength of modulations was found for SPS samples with InAs mole fraction x (= n/(n+m)) close to approximately 0.50 and when n is approximately equal to m approximately equal to 2. The modulations were suppressed at both high and low values of x. For x > 0.52 (global compression), the modulations were along the <100> directions in the (001) growth plane. For x < 0.52 (global tension), the modulations were along the two <310> directions rotated approximately {+-}27{degree} from [110] in the growth plane. The remarkably constant wavelength of the modulations, between approximately 20--30 nm, and the different modulation directions observed suggest that the origin of the modulations is due to surface roughening associated with the high misfit between the individual SPS layers and the InP substrate. Highly uniform unidirectional modulations have been grown by control of the InAs mole fraction and growth on suitably offcut substrates, which show great promise for application in device structures.

  8. Discovery of a short-necked sauropod dinosaur from the Late Jurassic period of Patagonia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rauhut, Oliver W M; Remes, Kristian; Fechner, Regina; Cladera, Gerardo; Puerta, Pablo

    2005-06-02

    Sauropod dinosaurs are one of the most conspicuous groups of Mesozoic terrestrial vertebrates. They show general trends towards an overall increase in size and elongation of the neck, by means of considerable elongation of the length of individual vertebrae and a cervical vertebra count that, in some cases, increases to 19 (ref. 1). The long neck is a particular hallmark of sauropod dinosaurs and is usually regarded as a key feeding adaptation. Here we describe a new dicraeosaurid sauropod, from the latest Jurassic period of Patagonia, that has a particularly short neck. With a neck that is about 40% shorter than in other known dicraeosaurs, this taxon demonstrates a trend opposite to that seen in most sauropods and indicates that the ecology of dicraeosaurids might have differed considerably from that of other sauropods. The new taxon indicates that there was a rapid radiation and dispersal of dicraeosaurids in the Late Jurassic of the Southern Hemisphere, after the separation of Gondwana from the northern continents by the late Middle Jurassic.

  9. Periodic Properties and Inquiry: Student Mental Models Observed during a Periodic Table Puzzle Activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larson, Kathleen G.; Long, George R.; Briggs, Michael W.

    2012-01-01

    The mental models of both novice and advanced chemistry students were observed while the students performed a periodic table activity. The mental model framework seems to be an effective way of analyzing student behavior during learning activities. The analysis suggests that students do not recognize periodic trends through the examination of…

  10. Observation of a Short Period Quasi-periodic Pulsation in Solar X-Ray, Microwave, and EUV Emissions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kumar, Pankaj; Cho, Kyung-Suk [Korea Astronomy and Space Science Institute (KASI), Daejeon, 305-348 (Korea, Republic of); Nakariakov, Valery M., E-mail: pankaj@kasi.re.kr [Centre for Fusion, Space and Astrophysics, Department of Physics, University of Warwick, CV4 7AL (United Kingdom)

    2017-02-10

    This paper presents the multiwavelength analysis of a 13 s quasi-periodic pulsation (QPP) observed in hard X-ray (12–300 keV) and microwave (4.9–34 GHz) emissions during a C-class flare that occurred on 2015 September 21. Atmospheric Image Assembly (AIA) 304 and 171 Å images show an emerging loop/flux tube (L1) moving radially outward, which interacts with the preexisting structures within the active region (AR). The QPP was observed during the expansion of and rising motion of L1. The Nobeyama Radioheliograph microwave images in 17/34 GHz channels reveal a single radio source that was co-spatial with a neighboring loop (L2). In addition, using AIA 304 Å images, we detected intensity oscillations in the legs of L2 with a period of about 26 s. A similar oscillation period was observed in the GOES soft X-ray flux derivative. This oscillation period seems to increase with time. We suggest that the observed QPP is most likely generated by the interaction between L2 and L3 observed in the AIA hot channels (131 and 94 Å). The merging speed of loops L2 and L3 was ∼35 km s{sup −1}. L1 was destroyed possibly by its interaction with preexisting structures in the AR, and produced a cool jet with the speed of ∼106–118 km s{sup −1} associated with a narrow CME (∼770 km s{sup −1}). Another mechanism of the QPP in terms of a sausage oscillation of the loop (L2) is also possible.

  11. Periodicity in cell dynamics in some mathematical models for the treatment of leukemia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halanay, A.

    2012-11-01

    A model for the evolution of short-term hematopoietic stem cells and of leukocytes in leucemia under periodic treatment is introduced. It consists of a system of periodic delay differential equations and takes into consideration the asymmetric division. A guiding function is used, together with a theorem of Krasnoselskii, to prove the existence of a strictly positive periodic solution and its stability is investigated.

  12. CSI 2264: CHARACTERIZING YOUNG STARS IN NGC 2264 WITH SHORT-DURATION PERIODIC FLUX DIPS IN THEIR LIGHT CURVES

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stauffer, John; Cody, Ann Marie; Rebull, Luisa; Plavchan, Peter; Carey, Sean; McGinnis, Pauline; Alencar, Silvia H. P.; Hillenbrand, Lynne A.; Carpenter, John; Turner, Neal J.; Terebey, Susan; Morales-Calderón, María; Bouvier, Jerome; Venuti, Laura; Hartmann, Lee; Calvet, Nuria; Micela, Giusi; Flaccomio, Ettore; Song, Inseok; Gutermuth, Rob

    2015-01-01

    We identify nine young stellar objects (YSOs) in the NGC 2264 star-forming region with optical CoRoT light curves exhibiting short-duration, shallow periodic flux dips. All of these stars have infrared excesses that are consistent with their having inner disk walls near the Keplerian co-rotation radius. The repeating photometric dips have FWHMs generally less than 1 day, depths almost always less than 15%, and periods (3 < P < 11 days) consistent with dust near the Keplerian co-rotation period. The flux dips vary considerably in their depth from epoch to epoch, but usually persist for several weeks and, in two cases, were present in data collected in successive years. For several of these stars, we also measure the photospheric rotation period and find that the rotation and dip periods are the same, as predicted by standard “disk-locking” models. We attribute these flux dips to clumps of material in or near the inner disk wall, passing through our line of sight to the stellar photosphere. In some cases, these dips are also present in simultaneous Spitzer IRAC light curves at 3.6 and 4.5 microns. We characterize the properties of these dips, and compare the stars with light curves exhibiting this behavior to other classes of YSOs in NGC 2264. A number of physical mechanisms could locally increase the dust scale height near the inner disk wall, and we discuss several of those mechanisms; the most plausible mechanisms are either a disk warp due to interaction with the stellar magnetic field or dust entrained in funnel-flow accretion columns arising near the inner disk wall

  13. CSI 2264: CHARACTERIZING YOUNG STARS IN NGC 2264 WITH SHORT-DURATION PERIODIC FLUX DIPS IN THEIR LIGHT CURVES

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stauffer, John; Cody, Ann Marie; Rebull, Luisa; Plavchan, Peter; Carey, Sean [Spitzer Science Center, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91125 (United States); McGinnis, Pauline; Alencar, Silvia H. P. [Departamento de Física—ICEx—UFMG, Av. Antônio Carlos, 6627, 30270-901, Belo Horizonte, MG (Brazil); Hillenbrand, Lynne A.; Carpenter, John [Astronomy Department, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91125 (United States); Turner, Neal J. [Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91109 (United States); Terebey, Susan [Department of Physics and Astronomy, 5151 State University Drive, California State University at Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA 90032 (United States); Morales-Calderón, María [Centro de Astrobiología, Dpto. de Astrofísica, INTA-CSIC, PO BOX 78, E-28691, ESAC Campus, Villanueva de la Cañada, Madrid (Spain); Bouvier, Jerome; Venuti, Laura [Université de Grenoble, Institut de Planétologie et d’Astrophysique de Grenoble (IPAG), F-38000 Grenoble (France); CNRS, IPAG, F-38000 Grenoble (France); Hartmann, Lee; Calvet, Nuria [Department of Astronomy, University of Michigan, 500 Church Street, Ann Arbor, MI 48105 (United States); Micela, Giusi; Flaccomio, Ettore [INAF—Osservatorio Astronomico di Palermo, Piazza del Parlamento 1, I-90134, Palermo (Italy); Song, Inseok [Department of Physics and Astronomy, The University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602–2451 (United States); Gutermuth, Rob, E-mail: stauffer@ipac.caltech.edu [Department of Astronomy, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA 01003 (United States); and others

    2015-04-15

    We identify nine young stellar objects (YSOs) in the NGC 2264 star-forming region with optical CoRoT light curves exhibiting short-duration, shallow periodic flux dips. All of these stars have infrared excesses that are consistent with their having inner disk walls near the Keplerian co-rotation radius. The repeating photometric dips have FWHMs generally less than 1 day, depths almost always less than 15%, and periods (3 < P < 11 days) consistent with dust near the Keplerian co-rotation period. The flux dips vary considerably in their depth from epoch to epoch, but usually persist for several weeks and, in two cases, were present in data collected in successive years. For several of these stars, we also measure the photospheric rotation period and find that the rotation and dip periods are the same, as predicted by standard “disk-locking” models. We attribute these flux dips to clumps of material in or near the inner disk wall, passing through our line of sight to the stellar photosphere. In some cases, these dips are also present in simultaneous Spitzer IRAC light curves at 3.6 and 4.5 microns. We characterize the properties of these dips, and compare the stars with light curves exhibiting this behavior to other classes of YSOs in NGC 2264. A number of physical mechanisms could locally increase the dust scale height near the inner disk wall, and we discuss several of those mechanisms; the most plausible mechanisms are either a disk warp due to interaction with the stellar magnetic field or dust entrained in funnel-flow accretion columns arising near the inner disk wall.

  14. Short-Circuit Modeling of a Wind Power Plant: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Muljadi, E.; Gevorgian, V.

    2011-03-01

    This paper investigates the short-circuit behavior of a WPP for different types of wind turbines. The short-circuit behavior will be presented. Both the simplified models and detailed models are used in the simulations and both symmetrical faults and unsymmetrical faults are discussed.

  15. Tailoring of the electrical and thermal properties using ultra-short period non-symmetric superlattices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paulina Komar

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Thermoelectric modules based on half-Heusler compounds offer a cheap and clean way to create eco-friendly electrical energy from waste heat. Here we study the impact of the period composition on the electrical and thermal properties in non-symmetric superlattices, where the ratio of components varies according to (TiNiSnn:(HfNiSn6−n, and 0 ⩽ n ⩽ 6 unit cells. The thermal conductivity (κ showed a strong dependence on the material content achieving a minimum value for n = 3, whereas the highest value of the figure of merit ZT was achieved for n = 4. The measured κ can be well modeled using non-symmetric strain relaxation applied to the model of the series of thermal resistances.

  16. The Discrete Beverton-Holt Model with Periodic Harvesting in a Periodically Fluctuating Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ziyad AlSharawi

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available We investigate the effect of constant and periodic harvesting on the Beverton-Holt model in a periodically fluctuating environment. We show that in a periodically fluctuating environment, periodic harvesting gives a better maximum sustainable yield compared to constant harvesting. However, if one can also fix the environment, then constant harvesting in a constant environment can be a better option, especially for sufficiently large initial populations. Also, we investigate the combinatorial structure of the periodic sequence of carrying capacities and its effect on the maximum sustainable yield. Finally, we leave some questions worth further investigations.

  17. Tidally distorted exoplanets: Density corrections for short-period hot-Jupiters based solely on observable parameters

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Burton, J. R.; Watson, C. A.; Fitzsimmons, A.; Moulds, V. [Astrophysics Research Centre, Queen' s University Belfast, Belfast BT7 1NN (United Kingdom); Pollacco, D.; Wheatley, P. J. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Warwick, Coventry CV4 7AL (United Kingdom); Littlefair, S. P., E-mail: jburton04@qub.ac.uk [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Sheffield, Sheffield S3 7RH (United Kingdom)

    2014-07-10

    The close proximity of short-period hot-Jupiters to their parent star means they are subject to extreme tidal forces. This has a profound effect on their structure and, as a result, density measurements that assume that the planet is spherical can be incorrect. We have simulated the tidally distorted surface for 34 known short-period hot-Jupiters, assuming surfaces of constant gravitational equipotential for the planet, and the resulting densities have been calculated based only on observed parameters of the exoplanet systems. Comparing these results to the density values, assuming the planets are spherical, shows that there is an appreciable change in the measured density for planets with very short periods (typically less than two days). For one of the shortest-period systems, WASP-19b, we determine a decrease in bulk density of 12% from the spherical case and, for the majority of systems in this study, this value is in the range of 1%-5%. On the other hand, we also find cases where the distortion is negligible (relative to the measurement errors on the planetary parameters) even in the cases of some very short period systems, depending on the mass ratio and planetary radius. For high-density gas planets requiring apparently anomalously large core masses, density corrections due to tidal deformation could become important for the shortest-period systems.

  18. Periodic Solutions for a Delayed Population Model on Time Scales

    OpenAIRE

    Kejun Zhuang; Zhaohui Wen

    2010-01-01

    This paper deals with a delayed single population model on time scales. With the assistance of coincidence degree theory, sufficient conditions for existence of periodic solutions are obtained. Furthermore, the better estimations for bounds of periodic solutions are established.

  19. On detecting and modeling periodic correlation in financial data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Broszkiewicz-Suwaj, E.; Makagon, A.; Weron, R.; Wyłomańska, A.

    2004-05-01

    For many economic problems standard statistical analysis, based on the notion of stationarity, is not adequate. These include modeling seasonal decisions of consumers, forecasting business cycles and-as we show in the present article-modeling wholesale power market prices. We apply standard methods and a novel spectral domain technique to conclude that electricity price returns exhibit periodic correlation with daily and weekly periods. As such they should be modeled with periodically correlated processes. We propose to apply periodic autoregression models which are closely related to the standard instruments in econometric analysis-vector autoregression models.

  20. First multi-colour photometric study of the short period K-type contact binary NSVS 2701634

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martignoni, M.; Acerbi, F.; Barani, C.

    2016-07-01

    We present the first CCD sets of complete light curves for the W Ursae Majoris W-type system NSVS 2701634. The observations were performed in the B, V and Ic bands using the 0.25 m telescope of the "Stazione Astronomica Betelgeuse" Italy, during 8 nights in April 2015. From our observations we were able to confirm and revise the short-period (0.24 days) variation found by Shaw and collaborators in their online list Using our 12 times of minimum light, the orbital period variations of NSVS 2701634 are studied for the first time. The general trend of the (O-C) curve reveals that its period is varying by a downward parabola that means that period is decreasing, this fact could be explained by a mass transfer between the components of the system. The light curves were modelled using the Wilson-Devinney code and the elements obtained from this analysis are used to compute the physical parameters of the system in order to study its evolutionary status. A reasonable fit of the synthetic light curves of the data indicated that NSVS 2701634 is an late-type (K3 -K4+K6) contact binary system of W-Subtype of the W Ursae Majoris systems, with a mass ratio of q = 2.60, a degree of contact factor f = 15.3% and inclination i = 72°. The light curves show asymmetries at the maxima that are fitted adding an hot spot on the surface of the more massive star, known as inverse O'Connell effect. From an estimation of the absolute dimensions of the system and from the logM-logL diagram, it is seen that both components of NSVS 2701634 follow the general pattern of the W subtype W Ursae Majoris systems.

  1. Modelling the trade off between period lenght and stages in a period batch control system

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Riezebos, J.

    1997-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to propose a nonparametric interest rate term structure model and investigate its implications on term structure dynamics and prices of interest rate derivative securities. The nonparametric spot interest rate process is estimated from the observed short-term interest

  2. Short period forecasting of catchment-scale precipitation. Part I: the role of Numerical Weather Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. A. Pedder

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available A deterministic forecast of surface precipitation involves solving a time-dependent moisture balance equation satisfying conservation of total water substance. A realistic solution needs to take into account feedback between atmospheric dynamics and the diabatic sources of heat energy associated with phase changes, as well as complex microphysical processes controlling the conversion between cloud water (or ice and precipitation. Such processes are taken into account either explicitly or via physical parameterisation schemes in many operational numerical weather prediction models; these can therefore generate precipitation forecasts which are fully consistent with the predicted evolution of the atmospheric state as measured by observations of temperature, wind, pressure and humidity. This paper reviews briefly the atmospheric moisture balance equation and how it may be solved in practice. Solutions are obtained using the Meteorological Office Mesoscale version of its operational Unified Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP model; they verify predicted precipitation rates against catchment-scale values based on observations collected during an Intensive Observation Period (IOP of HYREX. Results highlight some limitations of an operational NWP forecast in providing adequate time and space resolution, and its sensitivity to initial conditions. The large-scale model forecast can, nevertheless, provide important information about the moist dynamical environment which could be incorporated usefully into a higher resolution, ‘storm-resolving’ prediction scheme. Keywords: Precipitation forecasting; moisture budget; numerical weather prediction

  3. Periodic solutions of nonautonomous differential systems modeling obesity population

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arenas, Abraham J.; Gonzalez-Parra, Gilberto; Jodar, Lucas

    2009-01-01

    In this paper we study the periodic behaviour of the solutions of a nonautonomous model for obesity population. The mathematical model represented by a nonautonomous system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations is used to model the dynamics of obese populations. Numerical simulations suggest periodic behaviour of subpopulations solutions. Sufficient conditions which guarantee the existence of a periodic positive solution are obtained using a continuation theorem based on coincidence degree theory.

  4. Periodic solutions of nonautonomous differential systems modeling obesity population

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arenas, Abraham J. [Departamento de Matematicas y Estadistica, Universidad de Cordoba Monteria (Colombia)], E-mail: aarenas@sinu.unicordoba.edu.co; Gonzalez-Parra, Gilberto [Departamento de Calculo, Universidad de los Andes, Merida (Venezuela, Bolivarian Republic of)], E-mail: gcarlos@ula.ve; Jodar, Lucas [Instituto de Matematica Multidisciplinar, Universidad Politecnica de Valencia Edificio 8G, 2o, 46022 Valencia (Spain)], E-mail: ljodar@imm.upv.es

    2009-10-30

    In this paper we study the periodic behaviour of the solutions of a nonautonomous model for obesity population. The mathematical model represented by a nonautonomous system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations is used to model the dynamics of obese populations. Numerical simulations suggest periodic behaviour of subpopulations solutions. Sufficient conditions which guarantee the existence of a periodic positive solution are obtained using a continuation theorem based on coincidence degree theory.

  5. The impact of short periods of match congestion on injury risk and patterns in an elite football club

    OpenAIRE

    Carling, C.; McCall, A.; Le Gall, F.,; Dupont, G.

    2015-01-01

    Background: The effect of fixture congestion on injury rates and patterns has received scarce attention in elite football and existing investigations have not accounted for player rotation or examined the temporal distribution and potential cause of injuries.\\ud Aim: To prospectively investigate the epidemiology of injury during short periods of fixture congestion in a professional football club.\\ud Methods: Over a 6-season period, exposure time and injury data were compared in the same playe...

  6. Long-range alpha/beta and short-range gamma EEG synchronization distinguishes phasic and tonic REM periods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simor, Péter; Gombos, Ferenc; Blaskovich, Borbála; Bódizs, Róbert

    2017-12-23

    Rapid Eye Movement (REM) sleep is characterized by the alternation of two markedly different microstates, phasic and tonic REM. These periods differ in awakening and arousal thresholds, sensory processing, and spontaneous cortical oscillations. Previous studies indicate that whereas in phasic REM, cortical activity is independent of the external environment, attentional functions and sensory processing are partially maintained during tonic periods. Large-scale synchronization of oscillatory activity, especially in the alpha and beta frequency ranges can accurately distinguish different states of vigilance and cognitive processes of enhanced alertness and attention. Therefore, we examined long-range inter-and intrahemispheric, as well as short-range EEG synchronization during phasic and tonic REM periods quantified by the weighted phase lag index. Based on the nocturnal polysomnographic data of 19 healthy, adult participants we showed that long-range inter-and intrahemispheric alpha and beta synchrony were enhanced in tonic REM states in contrast to phasic ones, and resembled alpha and beta synchronization of resting wakefulness. On the other hand, short-range synchronization within the gamma frequency range was higher in phasic as compared to tonic periods. Increased short-range synchrony might reflect local, and inwardly driven sensorimotor activity during phasic REM periods, whereas enhanced long-range synchrony might index frontoparietal activity that reinstates environmental alertness after phasic REM periods. © Sleep Research Society 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Sleep Research Society. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail journals.permissions@oup.com.

  7. A short period of high-intensity interval training improves skeletal muscle mitochondrial function and pulmonary oxygen uptake kinetics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Peter Møller; Jacobs, Robert A; Bonne, Thomas Christian

    2016-01-01

    The aim of the present study was to examine whether improvements in pulmonary V̇O2 kinetics following a short period of high-intensity training (HIT) would be associated with improved skeletal muscle mitochondrial function. Ten untrained male volunteers (age: 26 ± 2; mean ± SD) performed six HIT ...

  8. Variable stars in Leo A : RR Lyrae stars, short-period cepheids, and implications for stellar content

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dolphin, AE; Saha, A; Claver, J; Skillman, ED; Cole, AA; Gallagher, JS; Tolstoy, E; Dohm-Palmer, RC; Mateo, M

    We present the results of a search for short-period variable stars in Leo A. We have found 92 candidate variables, including eight candidate RR Lyrae stars. From the RR Lyrae stars, we measure a distance modulus of (m - M)(0) = 24.51 +/- 0.12, or 0.80 +/- 0.04 Mpc. This discovery of RR Lyrae stars

  9. Short (

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Telleman, Gerdien; den Hartog, Laurens

    2013-01-01

    Aim: This systematic review assessed the implant survival rate of short (<10 mm) dental implants installed in partially edentulous patients. A case report of a short implant in the posterior region have been added. Materials and methods: A search was conducted in the electronic databases of MEDLINE

  10. Probability Estimates of Solar Proton Doses During Periods of Low Sunspot Number for Short Duration Missions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atwell, William; Tylka, Allan J.; Dietrich, William F.; Rojdev, Kristina; Matzkind, Courtney

    2016-01-01

    In an earlier paper presented at ICES in 2015, we investigated solar particle event (SPE) radiation exposures (absorbed dose) to small, thinly-shielded spacecraft during a period when the monthly smoothed sunspot number (SSN) was less than 30. Although such months are generally considered "solar-quiet", SPEs observed during these months even include Ground Level Events, the most energetic type of SPE. In this paper, we add to previous study those SPEs that occurred in 1973-2015 when the SSN was greater than 30 but less than 50. Based on the observable energy range of the solar protons, we classify the event as GLEs, sub-GLEs, and sub-sub-GLEs, all of which are potential contributors to the radiation hazard. We use the spectra of these events to construct a probabilistic model of the absorbed dose due to solar protons when SSN < 50 at various confidence levels for various depths of shielding and for various mission durations. We provide plots and tables of solar proton-induced absorbed dose as functions of confidence level, shielding thickness, and mission-duration that will be useful to system designers.

  11. Market volatility modeling for short time window

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Mattos Neto, Paulo S. G.; Silva, David A.; Ferreira, Tiago A. E.; Cavalcanti, George D. C.

    2011-10-01

    The gain or loss of an investment can be defined by the movement of the market. This movement can be estimated by the difference between the magnitudes of two stock prices in distinct periods and this difference can be used to calculate the volatility of the markets. The volatility characterizes the sensitivity of a market change in the world economy. Traditionally, the probability density function (pdf) of the movement of the markets is analyzed by using power laws. The contributions of this work is two-fold: (i) an analysis of the volatility dynamic of the world market indexes is performed by using a two-year window time data. In this case, the experiments show that the pdf of the volatility is better fitted by exponential function than power laws, in all range of pdf; (ii) after that, we investigate a relationship between the volatility of the markets and the coefficient of the exponential function based on the Maxwell-Boltzmann ideal gas theory. The results show an inverse relationship between the volatility and the coefficient of the exponential function. This information can be used, for example, to predict the future behavior of the markets or to cluster the markets in order to analyze economic patterns.

  12. Development of Speech Fluency over a Short Period of Time: Effects of Pedagogic Intervention

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tavakoli, Parvaneh; Campbell, Colin; McCormack, Joan

    2016-01-01

    This study investigates the effects of a short-term pedagogic intervention on development of second language (L2) fluency among learners studying English for academic purposes at a UK university. It also examines the interaction between development of fluency and complexity and accuracy. Through a pretest and posttest design, data were collected…

  13. On spurious and corrupted multifractality: The effects of additive noise, short-term memory and periodic trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ludescher, Josef; Bogachev, Mikhail I.; Kantelhardt, Jan W.; Schumann, Aicko Y.; Bunde, Armin

    2011-07-01

    We study the performance of multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) applied to long-term correlated and multifractal data records in the presence of additive white noise, short-term memory and periodicities. Such additions and disturbances that can be typically found in the observational records of various complex systems ranging from climate dynamics to physiology, network traffic, and finance. In monofractal records, we find that (i) additive white noise hardly results in spurious multifractality, but causes underestimated generalized Hurst exponents h(q) for all q values; (ii) short-range correlations lead to pronounced crossovers in the generalized fluctuation functions Fq(s) at positions that decrease with increasing moment q, thus causing significantly overestimated h(q) for small q and spurious multifractality; (iii) periodicities like seasonal trends (with standard deviations comparable with the one of the studied process) result in spurious “reversed” multifractality where h(q) increases with increasing q (except for very short time windows). We also show that in multifractal cascades moderate additions of noise, short-range memory, or periodic trends cause flawed results for h(q) with q2 remains nearly unchanged.

  14. Waveform correlation and coherence of short-period seismic noise within Gauribidanur array with implications for event detection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bhadauria, Y.S.; Arora, S.K.

    1995-01-01

    In continuation with our effort to model the short-period micro seismic noise at the seismic array at Gauribidanur (GBA), we have examined in detail time-correlation and spectral coherence of the noise field within the array space. This has implications of maximum possible improvement in signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) relevant to event detection. The basis of this study is about a hundred representative wide-band noise samples collected from GBA throughout the year 1992. Both time-structured correlation as well as coherence of the noise waveforms are found to be practically independent of the inter element distances within the array, and they exhibit strong temporal and spectral stability. It turns out that the noise is largely incoherent at frequencies ranging upwards from 2 Hz; the coherency coefficient tends to increase in the lower frequency range attaining a maximum of 0.6 close to 0.5 Hz. While the maximum absolute cross-correlation also diminishes with increasing frequency, the zero-lag cross-correlation is found to be insensitive to frequency filtering regardless of the pass band. An extremely small value of -0.01 of the zero-lag correlation and a comparatively higher year-round average estimate at 0.15 of the maximum absolute time-lagged correlation yields an SNR improvement varying between a probable high of 4.1 and a low of 2.3 for the full 20-element array. 19 refs., 6 figs

  15. Nature of short-period microtremors on the cliff-like ground. part 6; Gakechi kinbo no tanshuki bido. 6

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maiguma, T.; Kimura, Y. [Waseda University, Tokyo (Japan). School of Science and Engineering; Yasui, [Toda Corp., Tokyo, (Japan)

    1997-10-22

    Short-period microtremors were observed on the cliff-like ground to discuss vibration characteristics of the ground. It is known that damage of an earthquake becomes especially serious in the vicinity of the cliff-like ground with steep slopes. The present investigation has performed observations on short-period microtremors in two cliff-like grounds, one with a height of about 17 m and an inclination angle of about 55 degrees, and another with a height of 11 m and an inclination angle of about 60 degrees. The areas of the investigation are the Musashino tableland of the Pleistocene era covered by the Kanto loam bed, and the Oritate area (a farm land) with the cliff-like ground which has been formed as a result of erosion of a river terrace consisted of a gravel bed. The observation was carried out with nine moving coil type vibration converters having a natural period of one second installed for horizontal movements and seven converters installed for vertical movements. The result of the investigation revealed that, at the Musashino tableland, no noticeable influence of the cliff-like ground was recognized in the short-period microtremors; at the Oritate area, the spectra of the horizontal movements vary largely with vibrating directions; and the cliff effect can be seen in microtremors with frequencies from 5 Hz to 9 Hz. 5 refs., 9 figs.

  16. Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort Modeling and Prediction - BAMP

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Volker J. Schmid

    2007-10-01

    Full Text Available The software package BAMP provides a method of analyzing incidence or mortality data on the Lexis diagram, using a Bayesian version of an age-period-cohort model. A hierarchical model is assumed with a binomial model in the first-stage. As smoothing priors for the age, period and cohort parameters random walks of first and second order, with and without an additional unstructured component are available. Unstructured heterogeneity can also be included in the model. In order to evaluate the model fit, posterior deviance, DIC and predictive deviances are computed. By projecting the random walk prior into the future, future death rates can be predicted.

  17. Modelling the Volatility in Short and Long Haul Japanese Tourist Arrivals to New Zealand and Taiwan

    OpenAIRE

    Chia-Lin Chang; Michael McAleer; Christine Lim

    2011-01-01

    textabstractThis paper estimates the effects of short and long haul volatility (or risk) in monthly Japanese tourist arrivals to Taiwan and New Zealand, respectively. In order to model appropriately the volatilities of international tourist arrivals, we use symmetric and asymmetric conditional volatility models that are commonly used in financial econometrics, namely the GARCH (1,1), GJR (1,1) and EGARCH (1,1) models. The data series are for the period January 1997 to December 2007. The volat...

  18. "Modelling Short and Long Haul Volatility in Japanese Tourist Arrivals to New Zealand and Taiwan"

    OpenAIRE

    Chia-Lin Chang; Michael McAleer; Christine Lim

    2009-01-01

    This paper estimates the effects of short and long haul volatility (or risk) in monthly Japanese tourist arrivals to Taiwan and New Zealand , respectively. In order to model appropriately the volatilities of international tourist arrivals, we use symmetric and asymmetric conditional volatility models that are commonly used in financial econometrics, namely the GARCH (1,1), GJR (1,1) and EGARCH (1,1) models. The data series are for the period January 1997 to December 2007. The volatility estim...

  19. Short-channel drain current model for asymmetric heavily / lightly ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    PRADIPTA DUTTA

    2017-07-29

    Jul 29, 2017 ... Abstract. The paper presents a drain current model for double gate metal oxide semiconductor field effect transistors (DG MOSFETs) based on a new velocity saturation model that accounts for short-channel velocity saturation effect independently in the front and the back gate controlled channels under ...

  20. Angular dependence of Raman scattering selection rules for long-wavelength optical phonons in short-period GaAs/AlAs superlattices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Volodin, V. A., E-mail: volodin@isp.nsc.ru [Russian Academy of Sciences, Rzhanov Institute of Semiconductor Physics, Siberian Branch (Russian Federation); Sachkov, V. A. [Russian Academy of Sciences, Omsk Scientific Center, Siberian Branch (Russian Federation); Sinyukov, M. P. [Russian Academy of Sciences, Rzhanov Institute of Semiconductor Physics, Siberian Branch (Russian Federation)

    2016-07-15

    The angular dependence of Raman scattering selection rules for optical phonons in short-period (001) GaAs/AlAs superlattices is calculated and experimentally studied. Experiments are performed using a micro-Raman setup, in the scattering geometry with the wavevectors of the incident and scattered light lying in the plane of superlattices (so-called in-plane geometry). Phonon frequencies are calculated using the Born model taking the Coulomb interaction into account in the rigid-ion approximation. Raman scattering spectra are calculated in the framework of the deformation potential and electro-optical mechanisms. Calculations show an angular dependence of the selection rules for optical phonons with different directions of the wavevectors. Drastic differences in the selection rules are found for experimental and calculated spectra. Presumably, these differences are due to the Fröhlich mechanism in Raman scattering for short-period superlattices.

  1. Extended period simulation (EPS) modelling of urban water ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Water distribution network was constructed, calibrated and validated for extended period simulation studies using the network's physical, operational, calibration and validation data. The model was then applied to evaluate: (i) effects of fluctuating water demand on system storage over 24 hour period and (ii) level of service ...

  2. Manifestation of the Purcell effect in the conductivity of InAs/AlSb short-period superlattices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kagan, M. S., E-mail: kagan@cplire.ru; Altukhov, I. V. [Russian Academy of Sciences, Kotel' nikov Institute of Radio Engineering and Electronics (Russian Federation); Baranov, A. N. [Universite Montpellier 2, Institute d' Electronique du Sud (France); Il' inskaya, N. D. [Russian Academy of Sciences, Ioffe Physical-Technical Institute (Russian Federation); Paprotskiy, S. K. [Russian Academy of Sciences, Kotel' nikov Institute of Radio Engineering and Electronics (Russian Federation); Teissier, R. [Universite Montpellier 2, Institute d' Electronique du Sud (France); Usikova, A. A. [Russian Academy of Sciences, Kotel' nikov Institute of Radio Engineering and Electronics (Russian Federation)

    2013-11-15

    Vertical transport in short-period InAs/AlSb superlattices with type-II heterojunctions is studied at room temperature. It is found that negative differential conductivity appears in the miniband-conduction mode upon the overlapping of quantum-confined states in a periodic system of quantum wells. In the nonresonant-tunneling mode, equidistant peaks appear on the current-voltage characteristic of these superlattices. These peaks are attributed to the influence of the optical cavity on optical electron transitions in quantum wells (Purcell effect)

  3. Evaluation of short-period rainfall estimates from Kalpana-1 satellite ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The gridded 3 hourly accumulated TRMM satellite (3B42 V6 product or TMPA product) and surface raingauge data for stations over the Indian region for the same period is used as the standard measure of rainfall estimates. The Method for Object-based Diagnostic Evaluation (MODE) utility of the METv3.0 software, has ...

  4. Large time periodic solutions to coupled chemotaxis-fluid models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Chunhua

    2017-12-01

    In this paper, we deal with the time periodic problem to coupled chemotaxis-fluid models. We prove the existence of large time periodic strong solutions for the full chemotaxis-Navier-Stokes system in spatial dimension N=2, and the existence of large time periodic strong solutions for the chemotaxis-Stokes system in spatial dimension N=3. On the basis of these, the regularity of the solutions can be further improved. More precisely speaking, if the time periodic source g and the potential force \

  5. Short-Termed Integrated Forecasting System: 1993 Model documentation report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1993-05-01

    The purpose of this report is to define the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) and describe its basic properties. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the US Energy Department (DOE) developed the STIFS model to generate short-term (up to 8 quarters), monthly forecasts of US supplies, demands, imports exports, stocks, and prices of various forms of energy. The models that constitute STIFS generate forecasts for a wide range of possible scenarios, including the following ones done routinely on a quarterly basis: A base (mid) world oil price and medium economic growth. A low world oil price and high economic growth. A high world oil price and low economic growth. This report is written for persons who want to know how short-term energy markets forecasts are produced by EIA. The report is intended as a reference document for model analysts, users, and the public.

  6. Malaria model with periodic mosquito birth and death rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dembele, Bassidy; Friedman, Avner; Yakubu, Abdul-Aziz

    2009-07-01

    In this paper, we introduce a model of malaria, a disease that involves a complex life cycle of parasites, requiring both human and mosquito hosts. The novelty of the model is the introduction of periodic coefficients into the system of one-dimensional equations, which account for the seasonal variations (wet and dry seasons) in the mosquito birth and death rates. We define a basic reproduction number R(0) that depends on the periodic coefficients and prove that if R(0)1 then the disease is endemic and may even be periodic.

  7. Short communication: study of immune parameters in three Greek dairy sheep breeds during the periparturient period.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Theodorou, G; Fragou, S; Chronopoulou, R; Kominakis, A; Rogdakis, E; Politis, I

    2007-12-01

    The objective of the present study was to evaluate whether immunosuppression occurs in 3 different Greek dairy sheep breeds during the periparturient period. A total of 33 ewes from 3 breeds [i.e., the low-producing Boutsiko breed (n = 11), which is highly adaptable to harsh environments; the high-producing but environmentally fragile Chios breed (n = 11); and an intermediate synthetic breed (50% Boutsiko, 25% Arta, and 25% Chios, n = 11)] were used. Blood samples were collected at 18 and 2 d before parturition and at 15 d after parturition. Total cell-associated and membrane-bound urokinase plasminogen activator (U-PA) activity, free U-PA binding sites on cellular membranes, and superoxide anion (SA) production by activated phagocytes were determined. Results indicated that all immune parameters measured remained constant during the periparturient period for the Boutsiko breed. In contrast, there were reductions in total cell-associated and membrane-bound U-PA activity by both monocytes-macrophages and neutrophils and in SA production by monocytes-macrophages at d 2 before parturition for the Chios breed. In the synthetic breed, there were reductions in total cell-associated and membrane-bound U-PA activity by monocytes-macrophages and in SA production by both monocytes-macrophages and neutrophils at d 15 after parturition. Thus, mild immunosuppression during the periparturient period was observed in the 2 breeds with the highest milk production.

  8. Compensatory growth response of rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss Walbaum following short starvation periods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azodi, Maryam; Ebrahimi, Eisa; Farhadian, Omidvar; Mahboobi-Soofiani, Nasrollah; Morshedi, Vahid

    2015-07-01

    This sixty-day study was performed to determine the effects of short-term starvation and re-feeding cycles on growth, feeding performances and body composition of rainbow trout ( Oncorhynchus mykiss). Three hundred trout fingerlings with an average initial weight of 17.5±0.06 g were randomly distributed in 15 circular fiberglass tanks. The fish were exposed to 5 different feeding regimes; control: continuously fed twice daily to apparent satiation; T1: starved for 1 day and re-fed for 2 days; T2: starved for 1 day and re-fed for 4 days; T3: starved for 3 days and re-fed for 12 days; T4: starved for 4 days and re-fed for 16 days. At the end of the experiment, growth performance, feed utilization, whole body ash and moisture contents were not significantly ( P>0.05) different among the treatments. However, whole body protein content in T3 was significantly higher than other treatments ( Ptrout culture.

  9. Non-thyroid cancer in Northern Ukraine in the post-Chernobyl period: Short report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hatch, M; Ostroumova, E; Brenner, A; Federenko, Z; Gorokh, Y; Zvinchuk, O; Shpak, V; Tereschenko, V; Tronko, M; Mabuchi, K

    2015-06-01

    The Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident in Ukraine in 1986 led to widespread radioactive releases into the environment - primarily of radioiodines and cesium - heavily affecting the northern portions of the country, with settlement-averaged thyroid doses estimated to range from 10 mGy to more than 10 Gy. The increased risk of thyroid cancer among exposed children and adolescents is well established but the impact of radioactive contamination on the risk of other types of cancer is much less certain. To provide data on a public health issue of major importance, we have analyzed the incidence of non-thyroid cancers during the post-Chernobyl period in a well-defined cohort of 13,203 individuals who were <18 years of age at the time of the accident. The report is based on standardized incidence ratio (SIR) analysis of 43 non-thyroid cancers identified through linkage with the National Cancer Registry of Ukraine for the period 1998 through 2009. We compared the observed and expected number of cases in three cancer groupings: all solid cancers excluding thyroid, leukemia, and lymphoma. Our analyses found no evidence of a statistically significant elevation in cancer risks in this cohort exposed at radiosensitive ages, although the cancer trends, particularly for leukemia (SIR=1.92, 95% confidence interval: 0.69; 4.13), should continue to be monitored. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Integrate-and-fire models with an almost periodic input function

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kasprzak, Piotr; Nawrocki, Adam; Signerska-Rynkowska, Justyna

    2018-02-01

    We investigate leaky integrate-and-fire models (LIF models for short) driven by Stepanov and μ-almost periodic functions. Special attention is paid to the properties of the firing map and its displacement, which give information about the spiking behavior of the considered system. We provide conditions under which such maps are well-defined and are uniformly continuous. We show that the LIF models with Stepanov almost periodic inputs have uniformly almost periodic displacements. We also show that in the case of μ-almost periodic drives it may happen that the displacement map is uniformly continuous, but is not μ-almost periodic (and thus cannot be Stepanov or uniformly almost periodic). By allowing discontinuous inputs, we extend some previous results, showing, for example, that the firing rate for the LIF models with Stepanov almost periodic input exists and is unique. This is a starting point for the investigation of the dynamics of almost-periodically driven integrate-and-fire systems.

  11. Periodic and homoclinic orbits in a toy climate model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Toner

    1994-01-01

    Full Text Available A two dimensional system of autonomous nonlinear ordinary differential equations models glacier growth and temperature changes on an idealized planet. We apply standard perturbative techniques from dynamical systems theory to study small amplitude periodic orbits about a constant equilibrium. The equations are put in cononical form and the local phase space topology is examined. Maximum and minimum periods of oscillation are obtained and related to the radius of the orbit. An adjacent equilibrium is shown to have saddle character and the inflowing and outflowing manifolds of this saddle are studied using numerical integration. The inflowing manifolds show the region of attraction for the periodic orbit. As the frequency gets small, the adjacent (saddle equilibrium approaches the radius of the periodic orbit. The bifurcation of the periodic orbit to a stable homoclinic orbit is observed when an inflowing manifold and an outflowing manifold of the adjacent equilibrium cross.

  12. Biomass production of dense direct-seeded lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) at short rotation periods

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backlund, I.; Bergsten, U.

    2012-07-01

    Lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) is a fast-growing species that is suitable for producing woody biomass in Nordic countries. Direct seeding of this species is cheaper than planting and creates dense, stable stands. The objective of this study was to quantify the stem volume and biomass production of direct seeded lodgepole pine stands grown under different site conditions with different stem densities, at an age that would permit extensive harvesting of biomass. A circle-plot inventory was performed in 16 of the oldest direct seeded lodgepole pine stands in mid-northern Sweden. Stemwood production of almost 200 m{sup 3}/ha was achieved on average on the best sites, rising to about 300 m{sup 3}/ha for the best circle-plots within 30 years of direct seeding despite the fact that pre-commercial thinning was made once or twice. This corresponds to 100 and 140 tons of dry weight biomass/ha, respectively. Higher stand stem densities ({>=}3000 st/ha) yielded more biomass with only slight reductions in diameter at breast height. The development of stem volume with respect to dominant height in direct seeded stands was becoming comparable to that in planted stands with similar spacing. It therefore seems that there is an unutilized potential for cost-effectively growing lodgepole pine in dense stands for biomass production after direct seeding. It may be possible to devise regimes for short(er) rotation forestry that would yield substantial amount of inexpensive biomass for biorefineries within a few decades. (orig.)

  13. Short-term integrated forecasting system : 1993 model documentation report

    Science.gov (United States)

    1993-12-01

    The purpose of this report is to define the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) and describe its basic properties. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the U.S. Energy Department (DOE) developed the STIFS model to generate shor...

  14. Level-ARCH Short Rate Models with Regime Switching

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christiansen, Charlotte

    This paper introduces regime switching volatility into level- ARCH models for the short rates of the US, the UK, and Germany. Once regime switching and level effects are included there are no gains from including ARCH effects. It is of secondary importance exactly how the regime switching is spec...

  15. A Population of planetary systems characterized by short-period, Earth-sized planets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steffen, Jason H.; Coughlin, Jeffrey L.

    2016-01-01

    We analyze data from the Quarter 1–17 Data Release 24 (Q1–Q17 DR24) planet candidate catalog from NASA’s Kepler mission, specifically comparing systems with single transiting planets to systems with multiple transiting planets, and identify a population of exoplanets with a necessarily distinct system architecture. Such an architecture likely indicates a different branch in their evolutionary past relative to the typical Kepler system. The key feature of these planetary systems is an isolated, Earth-sized planet with a roughly 1-d orbital period. We estimate that at least 24 of the 144 systems we examined (≳17%) are members of this population. Accounting for detection efficiency, such planetary systems occur with a frequency similar to the hot Jupiters. PMID:27790984

  16. State of the Short Dipole Model Program for the LHC

    CERN Document Server

    Andreyev, N I; Kurtyka, T; Oberli, L R; Perini, D; Russenschuck, Stephan; Siegel, N; Siemko, A; Tommasini, D; Vanenkov, I; Walckiers, L

    1998-01-01

    Superconducting single and twin aperture 1-m long dipole magnets are currently being fabricated at CERN at a rate of about one per month in the framework of the short dipole model program for the LHC. The program allows to study performance improvements coming from refinements in design, components and assembly options and to accumulate statistics based on a small-scale production. The experience thus gained provides in turn feedback into the long magnet program in industry. In recent models initial quenching fields above 9 T have been obtained and after a short training the conductor limit at 2 K is reached, resulting in a central bore field exceeding 10 T. The paper describes the features of recent single aperture models, the results obtained during cold tests and the plans to ensure the continuation of a vigorous model program providing input for the fabrication of the main LHC dipoles.

  17. A long-term/short-term model for daily electricity prices with dynamic volatility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In this paper we introduce a new stochastic long-term/short-term model for short-term electricity prices, and apply it to four major European indices, namely to the German, Dutch, UK and Nordic one. We give evidence that all time series contain certain periodic (mostly annual) patterns, and show how to use the wavelet transform, a tool of multiresolution analysis, for filtering purpose. The wavelet transform is also applied to separate the long-term trend from the short-term oscillation in the seasonal-adjusted log-prices. In all time series we find evidence for dynamic volatility, which we incorporate by using a bivariate GARCH model with constant correlation. Eventually we fit various models from the existing literature to the data, and come to the conclusion that our approach performs best. For the error distribution, the Normal Inverse Gaussian distribution shows the best fit. (author)

  18. HP Memristor mathematical model for periodic signals and DC

    KAUST Repository

    Radwan, Ahmed G.

    2012-07-28

    In this paper mathematical models of the HP Memristor for DC and periodic signal inputs are provided. The need for a rigid model for the Memristor using conventional current and voltage quantities is essential for the development of many promising Memristors\\' applications. Unlike the previous works, which focuses on the sinusoidal input waveform, we derived rules for any periodic signals in general in terms of voltage and current. Square and triangle waveforms are studied explicitly, extending the formulas for any general square wave. The limiting conditions for saturation are also provided in case of either DC or periodic signals. The derived equations are compared to the SPICE model of the Memristor showing a perfect match.

  19. Forecasting inter-urban transport demand for a logistics company: A combined grey–periodic extension model with remnant correction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Donghui Wang

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Accurately predicting short-term transport demand for an individual logistics company involved in a competitive market is critical to make short-term operation decisions. This article proposes a combined grey–periodic extension model with remnant correction to forecast the short-term inter-urban transport demand of a logistics company involved in a nationwide competitive market, showing changes in trend and seasonal fluctuations with irregular periods different to the macroeconomic cycle. A basic grey–periodic extension model of an additive pattern, namely, the main combination model, is first constructed to fit the changing trends and the featured seasonal fluctuation periods. In order to improve prediction accuracy and model adaptability, the grey model is repeatedly modelled to fit the remnant tail time series of the main combination model until prediction accuracy is satisfied. The modelling approach is applied to a logistics company engaged in a nationwide less-than-truckload road transportation business in China. The results demonstrate that the proposed modelling approach produces good forecasting results and goodness of fit, also showing good model adaptability to the analysed object in a changing macro environment. This fact makes this modelling approach an option to analyse the short-term transportation demand of an individual logistics company.

  20. Influence of temperature of the short-period heat treatment on mechanical properties of the NiTi alloy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaroslav Čapek

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The equiatomic alloy of nickel and titanium, known as nitinol, possesses unique properties such as superelasticity, pseudoplasticity, shape memory, while maintaining good corrosion resistance and sufficient biocompatibility. Therefore it is used for production of various devices including surgery implants. Heat treatment of nickel-rich NiTi alloys can result in precipitation of nickel-rich phases, which strongly influence tensile and fatigue behaviour of the material.In this work we have studied influence of short-period heat treatment on tensile behaviour and fatigue life of the NiTi (50.9 at. % Ni wire intended for fabrication of surgery stents.

  1. 3-D interpretation of short-period magnetotelluric data at Furnas Volcano, Azores Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hogg, C.; Kiyan, D.; Rath, V.; Byrdina, S.; Vandemeulebrouck, J.; Revil, A.; Viveiros, F.; Carmo, R.; Silva, C.; Ferreira, T.

    2018-04-01

    Accurate geophysical imaging of shallow subsurface features provides crucial constraints on understanding the dynamics of volcanic systems. At Furnas Volcano (Azores), intense circulation of volcanic fluids at depth leading to high CO2 outgassing and flank destabilization poses considerable threat to the local population. Presented is a novel 3-D electrical resistivity model developed from 39 magnetotelluric soundings that images the hydrothermal system of the Furnas Volcano to a depth of 1 km. The resistivity model images two conductive zones, one at 100 m and another at 500 m depth, separated by a resistive layer. The shallow conductor has conductivity less than 1 S m-1, which can be explained by clay mineral surface conduction with a mass fraction of at least 20 per cent smectite. The deeper conductor extends across the majority of the survey area. This deeper conductor is located at depths where smectite is generally replaced by chlorite and we interpret it as aqueous fluids near the boiling point and infer temperatures of at least 240 °C. The less conductive layer found between these conductors is probably steam-dominated, and coincides within the mixed-clay zone found in many volcanic hydrothermal systems.

  2. Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort Model of Lung Cancer Mortality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bhikhari P. Tharu

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Background The objective of this study was to analyze the time trend for lung cancer mortality in the population of the USA by 5 years based on most recent available data namely to 2010. The knowledge of the mortality rates in the temporal trends is necessary to understand cancer burden.Methods Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort model was fitted using Poisson regression with histogram smoothing prior to decompose mortality rates based on age at death, period at death, and birth-cohort.Results Mortality rates from lung cancer increased more rapidly from age 52 years. It ended up to 325 deaths annually for 82 years on average. The mortality of younger cohorts was lower than older cohorts. The risk of lung cancer was lowered from period 1993 to recent periods.Conclusions The fitted Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort model with histogram smoothing prior is capable of explaining mortality rate of lung cancer. The reduction in carcinogens in cigarettes and increase in smoking cessation from around 1960 might led to decreasing trend of lung cancer mortality after calendar period 1993.

  3. An R package for fitting age, period and cohort models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adriano Decarli

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we present the R implementation of a GLIM macro which fits age-period-cohort model following Osmond and Gardner. In addition to the estimates of the corresponding model, owing to the programming capability of R as an object oriented language, methods for printing, plotting and summarizing the results are provided. Furthermore, the researcher has fully access to the output of the main function (apc which returns all the models fitted within the function. It is so possible to critically evaluate the goodness of fit of the resulting model.

  4. MODELLING OF THE PROCESS OF TEACHING READING ENGLISH LANGUAGE PERIODICALS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Тетяна Глушко

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available The article reveals a scientifically substantiated process of teaching reading English language periodicals in all its components, which are consistently developed, and form of interconnection of the structural elements in the process of teaching reading. This process is presented as a few interconnected and interdetermined models: 1 the models of the process of acquiring standard and expressive lexical knowledge; 2 the models of the process of formation of skills to use such vocabulary; 3 the models of the development of skills to read texts of the different linguistic levels.

  5. Analysis of the long and short-period terms due the nonsphericity of the central body: applications for Mercury

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carvalho, J. P. S.

    2017-10-01

    In this work, we present an approach taking into account the single-averaged equations and unaveraged equations to investigate the dynamics of artificial satellites on the effect due to the non-spherical shape of the planet Mercury. An analysis considering the long-period terms and another taking into account the short-period terms is presented. The numerical integrations of the equations developed are performed using the Maple software. We consider the numerical values of the most updated spherical harmonic coefficients in the literature. Emphasis is given to analyze the effect of the C22 term in the dynamics of the spacecraft. We show that the two techniques are in agreement (average or not average). We found orbits that librates around an equilibrium point with small variation of the orbital elements, in particular the eccentricity and argument of the pericenter. We also note that the C22 term contributes to reduce the growth of the orbital eccentricity.

  6. The phenomenon of creation of highly productive national science in a historically short period in Saudi Arabia and Qatar

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. A. Kurakov

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The phenomenon of creation of highly productive national science during a historically short period (10 years in Saudi Arabia and Qatar. The article presents the results of scientometric analysis of the publication flow in the Russian Federation, Qatar and Saudi Arabia, indexed in Scopus database for the period between 2011 to 2015 years. A comparison was completed of gross expenditure on research and development in these countries. It has shown that at lower national budgets on R & D Saudi Arabia and Qatar have achieved a much higher scientific productivity of domestic sciences in comparison with Russia. The article presents a review of action plan and directions of scientific-technological policy that allowed Saudi Arabia achieve a dynamic development of the national scientific and technological sector.

  7. On the use of volumetric strain meters to infer additional characteristics of short-period seismic radiation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borcherdt, R.D.; Johnston, M.J.S.; Glassmoyer, G.

    1989-01-01

    Volumetric strain meters (Sacks-Evertson design) are installed at 15 sites along the San Andreas fault system, to monitor long-term strain changes for earthquake prediction. Deployment of portable broadband, high-resolution digital recorders (GEOS) at several of the sites extends the detection band for volumetric strain to periods shorter than 5 ?? 10-2 sec and permits the simultaneous observation of seismic radiation fields using conventional short-period pendulum seismometers. Recordings of local and regional earthquakes indicate that dilatometers respond to P energy but not direct shear energy and that straingrams can be used to resolve superimposed reflect P and S waves for inference of wave characteristics not permitted by either sensor alone. Simultaneous measurements of incident P- and S-wave amplitudes are used to introduce a technique for single-station estimates of wave field inhomogeneity, free-surface reflection coefficients and local material P velocity. -from Authors

  8. Models for seismic wave propagation in periodically layered porous media

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kudarova, A.; Van Dalen, K.N.; Drijkoningen, G.G.

    2014-01-01

    Several models are discussed for seismic wave propagation in periodically layered poroelastic media where layers represent mesoscopic-scale heterogeneities that are larger than the pore and grain sizes but smaller than the wavelength. The layers behave according to Biot’s theory. Wave propagation

  9. Period doubling in a model of magnetoconvection with Ohmic heating

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Osman, M. B. H.

    2000-01-01

    In this work it has been studied an idealized model of rotating nonlinear magneto convection to investigate the effects of Ohmic heating. In the over stable region it was found that Ohmic heating can lead to a period-doubling sequence

  10. Modeling laser-induced periodic surface structures: an electromagnetic approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Skolski, J.Z.P.

    2014-01-01

    This thesis presents and discusses laser-induced periodic surface structures (LIPSSs), as well as a model explaining their formation. LIPSSs are regular wavy surface structures with dimensions usually in the submicrometer range, which can develop on the surface of many materials exposed to laser

  11. Nature of short-period microtremors on the cliff-like ground. Part 5; Gakechi kinbo no tanshuki bido. 5

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maiguma, T.; Yoshiike, T. [Waseda University, Tokyo (Japan). School of Science and Engineering; Yasui, M. [Toda Corp., Tokyo, (Japan)

    1997-05-27

    It is recorded that damage by an earthquake in an area near the cliff-like ground is greater than in other areas. Short-period microtremors have been observed on the ground around a cliff with a height of 5 meters. It was reported from the observation that remarkably dominant frequency of 4.5 Hz has been reported in that case; seismic motion as large as three times that in normal earthquakes has occurred near the edge of the cliff; and the influence of the cliff topography has extended to nearly 15 m, which is about three times greater than the cliff height. This paper describes an investigation on seismic characteristics of ground by measuring short-period microtremors in two cliff-like areas with an elevation difference of about 17 m, making an inclination angle of about 50 degrees. Natural dominant frequency of 8.0 Hz was measured in the Akiruno cliff, and 4.0 Hz in the Kagurazaka cliff. This difference is thought to have been caused by the Akiruno cliff being formed of gravel-soil ground, while the Kagurazaka cliff being formed of loamy soil ground. The influence of the cliff-like ground on seismic motion in ground appears noticeably as a seismic motion perpendicular to the cliff surface, less noticeably in the parallel direction, and very little in vertical motions. Concrete walls constructed on cliff surface can suppress very effectively the seismic motions in the ground near the cliff. 4 refs., 11 figs.

  12. Short-period volcanic gas precursors to phreatic eruptions: Insights from Poás Volcano, Costa Rica

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Moor, Maarten; Aiuppa, Alessandro; Pacheco, Javier; Avard, Geoffroy; Kern, Christoph; Liuzzo, Marco; Martinez, Maria; Giudice, Gaetano; Fischer, Tobias P.

    2016-01-01

    Volcanic eruptions involving interaction with water are amongst the most violent and unpredictable geologic phenomena on Earth. Phreatic eruptions are exceptionally difficult to forecast by traditional geophysical techniques. Here we report on short-term precursory variations in gas emissions related to phreatic blasts at Poás volcano, Costa Rica, as measured with an in situ multiple gas analyzer that was deployed at the edge of the erupting lake. Gas emitted from this hyper-acid crater lake approaches magmatic values of SO2/CO2 1–6 days prior to eruption. The SO2 flux derived from magmatic degassing through the lake is measureable by differential optical absorption spectrometry (sporadic campaign measurements), which allows us to constrain lake gas output and input for the major gas species during eruptive and non-eruptive periods. We can further calculate power supply to the hydrothermal system using volatile mass balance and thermodynamics, which indicates that the magmatic heat flux into the shallow hydrothermal system increases from ∼27 MW during quiescence to ∼59 MW during periods of phreatic events. These transient pulses of gas and heat from the deeper magmatic system generate both phreatic eruptions and the observed short-term changes in gas composition, because at high gas flux scrubbing of sulfur by the hydrothermal system is both kinetically and thermodynamically inhibited whereas CO2gas is always essentially inert in hyperacid conditions. Thus, the SO2/CO2 of lake emissions approaches magmatic values as gas and power supply to the sub-limnic hydrothermal system increase, vaporizing fluids and priming the hydrothermal system for eruption. Our results suggest that high-frequency real-time gas monitoring could provide useful short-term eruptive precursors at volcanoes prone to phreatic explosions.

  13. Short-period volcanic gas precursors to phreatic eruptions: Insights from Poás Volcano, Costa Rica

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Moor, J. M.; Aiuppa, A.; Pacheco, J.; Avard, G.; Kern, C.; Liuzzo, M.; Martínez, M.; Giudice, G.; Fischer, T. P.

    2016-05-01

    Volcanic eruptions involving interaction with water are amongst the most violent and unpredictable geologic phenomena on Earth. Phreatic eruptions are exceptionally difficult to forecast by traditional geophysical techniques. Here we report on short-term precursory variations in gas emissions related to phreatic blasts at Poás volcano, Costa Rica, as measured with an in situ multiple gas analyzer that was deployed at the edge of the erupting lake. Gas emitted from this hyper-acid crater lake approaches magmatic values of SO2/CO2 1-6 days prior to eruption. The SO2 flux derived from magmatic degassing through the lake is measureable by differential optical absorption spectrometry (sporadic campaign measurements), which allows us to constrain lake gas output and input for the major gas species during eruptive and non-eruptive periods. We can further calculate power supply to the hydrothermal system using volatile mass balance and thermodynamics, which indicates that the magmatic heat flux into the shallow hydrothermal system increases from ∼27 MW during quiescence to ∼59 MW during periods of phreatic events. These transient pulses of gas and heat from the deeper magmatic system generate both phreatic eruptions and the observed short-term changes in gas composition, because at high gas flux scrubbing of sulfur by the hydrothermal system is both kinetically and thermodynamically inhibited whereas CO2 gas is always essentially inert in hyperacid conditions. Thus, the SO2/CO2 of lake emissions approaches magmatic values as gas and power supply to the sub-limnic hydrothermal system increase, vaporizing fluids and priming the hydrothermal system for eruption. Our results suggest that high-frequency real-time gas monitoring could provide useful short-term eruptive precursors at volcanoes prone to phreatic explosions.

  14. A physical model of sea wave period from altimeter data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Badulin, S. I.

    2014-02-01

    A physical model for sea wave period from altimeter data is presented. Physical roots of the model are in recent advances of the theory of weak turbulence of wind-driven waves that predicts the link of instant wave energy to instant energy flux to/from waves. The model operates with wave height and its spatial derivative and does not refer to normalized radar cross-section σ0 measured by the altimeter. Thus, the resulting formula for wave period does not contain any empirical parameters and does not require features of particular satellite altimeter or any calibration for specific region of measurements. A single case study illustrates consistency of the new approach with previously proposed empirical models in terms of estimates of wave periods and their statistical distributions. The paper brings attention to the possible corruption of dynamical parameters such as wave steepness or energy fluxes to/from waves when using the empirical approaches. Applications of the new model to the studies of sea wave dynamics are discussed.

  15. Duty periods with early start times restrict the amount of sleep obtained by short-haul airline pilots.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roach, Gregory D; Sargent, Charli; Darwent, David; Dawson, Drew

    2012-03-01

    Most of the research related to human fatigue in the aviation industry has focussed on long-haul pilots, but short-haul pilots also experience elevated levels of fatigue. The aim of this study was to examine the impact of early start times on the amount of sleep obtained prior to duty and on fatigue levels at the start of duty. Seventy short-haul pilots collected data regarding their duty schedule and sleep/wake behaviour for at least two weeks. Data were collected using self-report duty/sleep diaries and wrist activity monitors. Mixed-effects regression analyses were used to examine the effects of duty start time (04:00-10:00 h) on (i) the total amount of sleep obtained in the 12h prior to the start of duty and (ii) self-rated fatigue level at the start of duty. Both analyses indicated significant main effects of duty start time. In particular, the amount of sleep obtained in the 12h prior to duty was lowest for duty periods that commenced between 04:00 and 05:00 h (i.e. 5.4h), and greatest for duty periods that commenced between 09:00 and 10:00 h (i.e. 6.6h). These data indicate that approximately 15 min of sleep is lost for every hour that the start of duty is advanced prior to 09:00 h. In addition, self-rated fatigue at the start of duty was highest for duty periods that commenced between 04:00 and 05:00 h, and lowest for duty periods that commenced between 09:00 and 10:00 h. Airlines should implement a fatigue risk management system (FRMS) for short-haul pilots required to work early-morning shifts. One component of the FRMS should be focussed on the production of 'fatigue-friendly' rosters. A second component of the FRMS should be focussed on training pilots to optimise sleep opportunities, to identify circumstances where the likelihood of fatigue is elevated, and to manage the risks associated with fatigue-related impairment. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. A lumped model for rotational modes in periodic solid composites

    KAUST Repository

    Peng, Pai

    2013-10-01

    We present a lumped model to study the rotational modes in a type of two-dimensional periodic solid composites comprised of a square array of rubber-coated steel cylinders embedded in an epoxy matrix. The model captures the physical essence of rotational modes in such systems for various combinations of material parameters, and, therefore it is able to describe the transition behaviour when the system is gradually adjusted from an elastic metamaterial to an elastic phononic crystal. From the model, we can define a transition zone which separates the typical elastic metamaterials and the phononic crystals.

  17. Migdal's short range correlations in a covariant model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lutz, M.F.M.; Technische Univ. Darmstadt

    2002-11-01

    We construct a covariant model for short range correlations of a pion emerged in nuclear matter. Once the delta-hole contribution is considered an additional and so far neglected channel opens that leads to significant modifications in the vicinity of the kinematical region defined by ω ∝ | vectorq |. We speculate that this novel effect should be important for the quantitative interpretation of charge exchange reactions like 12 C( 3 He,t). (orig.)

  18. Impact of streamflow data assimilation and length of the verification period on the quality of short-term ensemble hydrologic forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Randrianasolo, A.; Thirel, G.; Ramos, M. H.; Martin, E.

    2014-11-01

    Data assimilation has gained wide recognition in hydrologic forecasting due mainly to its capacity to improve the quality of short-term forecasts. In this study, a comparative analysis is conducted to assess the impact of discharge data assimilation on the quality of streamflow forecasts issued by two different modeling conceptualizations of catchment response. The sensitivity of the performance metrics to the length of the verification period is also investigated. The hydrological modeling approaches are: the coupled physically-based hydro-meteorological model SAFRAN-ISBA-MODCOU, a distributed model with a data assimilation procedure that uses streamflow measurements to assess the initial state of soil water content that optimizes discharge simulations, and the lumped soil moisture-accounting type rainfall-runoff model GRP, which assimilates directly the last observed discharge to update the state of the routing store. The models are driven by the weather ensemble prediction system PEARP of Météo-France, which is based on the global spectral ARPEGE model zoomed over France. It runs 11 perturbed members for a forecast range of 60 h. Forecast and observed data are available for 86 catchments over a 17-month period (March 2005-July 2006) for both models and for 82 catchments over a 52-month period (April 2005-July 2009) for the GRP model. The first dataset is used to investigate the impact of streamflow data assimilation on forecast quality, while the second is used to evaluate the impact of the length of the verification period on the assessment of forecast quality. Forecasts are compared to daily observed discharges and scores are computed for lead times 24 h and 48 h. Results indicate an overall good performance of both hydrological models forced by the PEARP ensemble predictions when the models are run with their data assimilation procedures. In general, when data assimilation is performed, the quality of the forecasts increases: median differences between

  19. Two empirical models for short-term forecast of Kp

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, B.; Liu, S.; Gong, J.

    2017-03-01

    In this paper, two empirical models are developed for short-term forecast of the Kp index, taking advantage of solar wind-magnetosphere coupling functions proposed by the research community. Both models are based on the data for years 1995 to 2004. Model 1 mainly uses solar wind parameters as the inputs, while model 2 also utilizes the previous measured Kp value. Finally, model 1 predicts Kp with a linear correlation coefficient (r) of 0.91, a prediction efficiency (PE) of 0.81, and a root-mean-square (RMS) error of 0.59. Model 2 gives an r of 0.92, a PE of 0.84, and an RMS error of 0.57. The two models are validated through out-of-sample test for years 2005 to 2013, which also yields high forecast accuracy. Unlike in the other models reported in the literature, we are taking the response time of the magnetosphere to external solar wind at the Earth explicitly in the modeling. Statistically, the time delay in the models turns out to be about 30 min. By introducing this term, both the accuracy and lead time of the model forecast are improved. Through verification and validation, the models can be used in operational geomagnetic storm warnings with reliable performance.

  20. Short-Term Memory and Its Biophysical Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Wei; Zhang, Kai; Tang, Xiao-wei

    1996-12-01

    The capacity of short-term memory has been studied using an integrate-and-fire neuronal network model. It is found that the storage of events depend on the manner of the correlation between the events, and the capacity is dominated by the value of after-depolarization potential. There is a monotonic increasing relationship between the value of after-depolarization potential and the memory numbers. The biophysics relevance of the network model is discussed and different kinds of the information processes are studied too.

  1. A Simple Hybrid Model for Short-Term Load Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suseelatha Annamareddi

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper proposes a simple hybrid model to forecast the electrical load data based on the wavelet transform technique and double exponential smoothing. The historical noisy load series data is decomposed into deterministic and fluctuation components using suitable wavelet coefficient thresholds and wavelet reconstruction method. The variation characteristics of the resulting series are analyzed to arrive at reasonable thresholds that yield good denoising results. The constitutive series are then forecasted using appropriate exponential adaptive smoothing models. A case study performed on California energy market data demonstrates that the proposed method can offer high forecasting precision for very short-term forecasts, considering a time horizon of two weeks.

  2. The International Geophysical Month: Short periods of cooperative study can consolidate the gains of the International Geophysical Year.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Helliwell, R A; Martin, L H

    1961-12-01

    For convenience, we summarize below some of the main advantages of the IGM concept. 1) Most organizations can mount and support intensive field operations for short periods. 2) High-quality data would be obtained, and the data could be processed more promptly than in long-term projects. 3) Laboratory equipment could in many instances be mnade available for field operations. 4) Top-caliber researchers would be available for field operations. 5) The participation of small research groups and of research workers from government and industry would be fostered. 6) Student participation would improve educational programs in, and attract needed talent to, the geophysical sciences. 7) Ship, satellite, and rocket observations could be scheduled for IGM's. 8) International scientific conferences scheduled to follow IGM's would attract working scientists. It is not suggested that these short-term exercises should replace the long synoptic programs characteristic of the IGY. Rather it is proposed that they supplement and guide any such future long-term program. If adopted, they would produce many data of value for the planning and timing of the International Year of the Quiet Sun. To bring emphasis on special observations during the IQSY, International Geophysical Months might well be scheduled to coincide with the June and December solstices, to be followed by an IGM at an equinoctial period. This would provide periods for concentrated sampling-periods in somewhat the same category as the Regular World Intervals adopted during the IGY. The more elaborate experiments could be confined to the International Geophysical Months, so that only those studies for which continuous observations are essential would be scheduled for the entire period. The duration of an International Geophysical Month would be sufficient for carrying out experiments requiring moving platforms such as ships, rockets, or satellites. It is recommended that every effort be made to schedule the first IGM

  3. Impact of break-in period on the short-term outcomes of patients started on peritoneal dialysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yaorong; Zhang, Lin; Lin, Aiwu; Ni, Zhaohui; Qian, Jiaqi; Fang, Wei

    2014-01-01

    Peritoneal dialysis (PD) is one of the first-line modalities of renal replacement therapy in patients with end-stage renal disease. Guidelines recommended a break-in period of at least 2 weeks before full PD start. However, the optimal duration of the break-in period is still unclear. In the present study, we investigated the effect of various break-in periods on short-term outcomes in patients on PD. ♢ All patients who underwent Tenckhoff catheter implantation and initiated PD in Renji Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, between 1 January 2001 and 31 December 2010 were included. Patients were grouped according to the duration of their break-in period: 7 days or less (BI ≤ 7), 8 - 14 days (BI8-14), and more than 14 days (BI>14). Kaplan-Meier curves and log-rank tests were used to compare short-term outcomes in the various groups. ♢ Our study enrolled 657 patients (44.5% men), of whom 344, 137, and 176 patients were in the respective break-in groups. Compared with BI>14 patients, BI ≤ 7 patients had a lower estimated glomerular filtration rate (5.34 ± 1.86 mL/min/1.73 m(2) vs 6.55 ± 1.71 mL/min/1.73 m(2), p 14 patients (8.4% vs 1.7%, p = 0.004). However, we observed no significant differences between the three groups with respect to the prevalence of catheter dysfunction requiring surgical intervention (p > 0.05). Logistic regression analysis showed that BI ≤ 7 [relative risk: 4.322; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.278 to 14.608; p = 0.019] was an independent predictor of catheter dysfunction, but not of catheter dysfunction requiring surgical intervention (p > 0.05). Catheter dysfunction [hazard ratio (HR): 20.087; 95% CI: 7.326 to 55.074; p break-in period of less than 1 week might experience a minor increased risk of mechanical complications, but no major effect on technique survival.

  4. Exercise during Short-Term and Long-Term Continuous Exposure to Hypoxia Exacerbates Sleep-Related Periodic Breathing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tellez, Helio Fernandez; Morrison, Shawnda A.; Neyt, Xavier; Mairesse, Olivier; Piacentini, Maria Francesca; Macdonald-Nethercott, Eoin; Pangerc, Andrej; Dolenc-Groselj, Leja; Eiken, Ola; Pattyn, Nathalie; Mekjavic, Igor B.; Meeusen, Romain

    2016-01-01

    Study Objectives: Exposure to hypoxia elevates chemosensitivity, which can lead to periodic breathing. Exercise impacts gas exchange, altering chemosensitivity; however, interactions between sleep, exercise and chronic hypoxic exposure have not been examined. This study investigated whether exercise exacerbates sleep-related periodic breathing in hypoxia. Methods: Two experimental phases. Short-Term Phase: a laboratory controlled, group-design study in which 16 active, healthy men (age: 25 ± 3 y, height: 1.79 ± 0.06 m, mass: 74 ± 8 kg) were confined to a normobaric hypoxic environment (FIO2 = 0.139 ± 0.003, 4,000 m) for 10 days, after random assignment to a sedentary (control, CON) or cycle-exercise group (EX). Long-Term Phase: conducted at the Concordia Antarctic Research Station (3,800 m equivalent at the Equator) where 14 men (age: 36 ± 9 y, height: 1.77 ± 0.09 m, mass: 75 ± 10 kg) lived for 12–14 months, continuously confined. Participants were stratified post hoc based on self-reported physical activity levels. We quantified apnea-hypopnea index (AHI) and physical activity variables. Results: Short-Term Phase: mean AHI scores were significantly elevated in the EX group compared to CON (Night1 = CON: 39 ± 51, EX: 91 ± 59; Night10 = CON: 32 ± 32, EX: 92 ± 48; P = 0.046). Long-Term Phase: AHI was correlated to mean exercise time (R2 = 0.4857; P = 0.008) and the coefficient of variation in night oxyhemoglobin saturation (SpO2; R2 = 0.3062; P = 0.049). Conclusions: Data indicate that exercise (physical activity) per se affects night SpO2 concentrations and AHI after a minimum of two bouts of moderate-intensity hypoxic exercise, while habitual physical activity in hypobaric hypoxic confinement affects breathing during sleep, up to 13+ months' duration Citation: Tellez HF, Morrison SA, Neyt X, Mairesse O, Piacentini MF, Macdonald-Nethercott E, Pangerc A, Dolenc-Groselj L, Eiken O, Pattyn N, Mekjavic IB, Meeusen R. Exercise during short-term and long

  5. Modelling Quasi-Periodic Pulsations in Solar and Stellar Flares

    Science.gov (United States)

    McLaughlin, J. A.; Nakariakov, V. M.; Dominique, M.; Jelínek, P.; Takasao, S.

    2018-02-01

    Solar flare emission is detected in all EM bands and variations in flux density of solar energetic particles. Often the EM radiation generated in solar and stellar flares shows a pronounced oscillatory pattern, with characteristic periods ranging from a fraction of a second to several minutes. These oscillations are referred to as quasi-periodic pulsations (QPPs), to emphasise that they often contain apparent amplitude and period modulation. We review the current understanding of quasi-periodic pulsations in solar and stellar flares. In particular, we focus on the possible physical mechanisms, with an emphasis on the underlying physics that generates the resultant range of periodicities. These physical mechanisms include MHD oscillations, self-oscillatory mechanisms, oscillatory reconnection/reconnection reversal, wave-driven reconnection, two loop coalescence, MHD flow over-stability, the equivalent LCR-contour mechanism, and thermal-dynamical cycles. We also provide a histogram of all QPP events published in the literature at this time. The occurrence of QPPs puts additional constraints on the interpretation and understanding of the fundamental processes operating in flares, e.g. magnetic energy liberation and particle acceleration. Therefore, a full understanding of QPPs is essential in order to work towards an integrated model of solar and stellar flares.

  6. Interwar Period Officer Education: A Model for the Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-05-23

    the encirclement from the southwest of the Allied forces in Tunisia . However, officer education prepared the inexperienced American combat leaders to...campaign in Tunisia indicate that officer education must have an aspect of doctrinal and tactical mastery, strong logistical understanding, an emphasis on...Approved for Public Release; Distribution is Unlimited Interwar Period Officer Education : A Model For The Future A Monograph by MAJ Jason S

  7. Mathematical models of human cerebellar development in the fetal period.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dudek, Krzysztof; Nowakowska-Kotas, Marta; Kędzia, Alicja

    2018-04-01

    The evaluation of cerebellar growth in the fetal period forms a part of a widely used examination to identify any features of abnormalities in early stages of human development. It is well known that the development of anatomical structures, including the cerebellum, does not always follow a linear model of growth. The aim of the study was to analyse a variety of mathematical models of human cerebellar development in fetal life to determine their adequacy. The study comprised 101 fetuses (48 males and 53 females) between the 15th and 28th weeks of fetal life. The cerebellum was exposed and measurements of the vermis and hemispheres were performed, together with statistical analyses. The mathematical model parameters of fetal growth were assessed for crown-rump length (CRL) increases, transverse cerebellar diameter and ventrodorsal dimensions of the cerebellar vermis in the transverse plane, and rostrocaudal dimensions of the cerebellar vermis and hemispheres in the frontal plane. A variety of mathematical models were applied, including linear and non-linear functions. Taking into consideration the variance between models and measurements, as well as correlation parameters, the exponential and Gompertz models proved to be the most suitable for modelling cerebellar growth in the second and third trimesters of pregnancy. However, the linear model gave a satisfactory approximation of cerebellar growth, especially in older fetuses. The proposed models of fetal cerebellar growth constructed on the basis of anatomical examination and objective mathematical calculations could be useful in the estimation of fetal development. © 2018 Anatomical Society.

  8. [Modeling of cotton boll maturation period and cottonseed biomass accumulation].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Wen-Feng; Meng, Ya-Li; Zhao, Xin-Hua; Chen, Bing-Lin; Xu, Nai-Yin; Zhou, Zhi-Guo

    2009-04-01

    Field experiments with different maturity cotton cultivars and sowing dates were conducted at different sites to quantitatively study the effects of cultivar characteristics, weather conditions (air temperature and solar radiation), and crop management variable (N application rate) on the cotton boll maturation period and cottonseed biomass accumulation. The cotton boll maturation period was simulated by using the scale of physiological development time. Based on the hypothesis of sink-determined, the cottonseed biomass accumulation model was then developed. The subtending leaf N concentration of cotton boll was simulated with a semi-empirical equation, and used as the direct indicator of the N nutrition effect on cottonseed growth and development. The model was tested by independent field data obtained in the Yellow River Valley (Xuzhou and Anyang) and the lower reaches of Yangtze River Valley (Huaian) in 2005. The simulated values of boll maturation period showed reasonable agreement with observed values, with a root mean square error (RMSE) of 2.25 days for cultivar DSC-1, of 2.61 days for cultivar KC-1, and of 2.75 days for cultivar AC-33B. The RMSE of cottonseed dry mass prediction was 9.5 mg x seed(-1) for KC-1 and 8.2 mg x seed(-1) for AC-33B, indicating that the model had a good prediction precision.

  9. Computational modeling of ultra-short-pulse ablation of enamel

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    London, R.A.; Bailey, D.S.; Young, D.A. [and others

    1996-02-29

    A computational model for the ablation of tooth enamel by ultra-short laser pulses is presented. The role of simulations using this model in designing and understanding laser drilling systems is discussed. Pulses of duration 300 sec and intensity greater than 10{sup 12} W/cm{sup 2} are considered. Laser absorption proceeds via multi-photon initiated plasma mechanism. The hydrodynamic response is calculated with a finite difference method, using an equation of state constructed from thermodynamic functions including electronic, ion motion, and chemical binding terms. Results for the ablation efficiency are presented. An analytic model describing the ablation threshold and ablation depth is presented. Thermal coupling to the remaining tissue and long-time thermal conduction are calculated. Simulation results are compared to experimental measurements of the ablation efficiency. Desired improvements in the model are presented.

  10. A passive method for the determination of the equilibrium factor between radon gas and its short period progeny

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lopez, Fabio O.; Canoba, Analia C.

    2001-01-01

    Due to the radiological importance of 222 Rn gas and its progeny of short period it is extremely necessary to count with an adequate methodology for the determination of its concentration in the different atmospheres in which human activity is developed. In this work a method was developed to determine the concentration of 222 Rn gas and the equilibrium factor between the concentration of the gas and its descendants, by means of a single device that has two Makrofol passive tracks detector. This device is completely passive and integrating, conditions that make it very appropriate to be used in any atmospheres in which human activity is developed, for example in houses, schools, places of work, underground mines, etc. (author)

  11. Short-range order in alloys of nickel with the elements of group VIII of the periodic table

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khwaja, F.A.

    1981-08-01

    Experimental measurements of the diffuse X-ray scattering intensity were performed on alloys of Ni with Rh and Os. The atomic short-range order (SRO) parameters αsub(i) and the size-effect parameters βsub(i) were calculated from these measurements. It is established that SRO and size-effect exist in Ni-Rh and Ni-Os alloys analogously as in a few other alloys of Ni with the elements of group VIII of the periodic table. The experimental data was interpreted theoretically by calculating the interaction energies from the pseudo-potentials and the effective valencies of the individual components of the systems studied. It was found that theoretically calculated values of the interaction energies for these alloys are inconsistent with the experimentally determined sign of the SRO parameter. (author)

  12. Spreading depression is facilitated in adult rats previously submitted to short episodes of malnutrition during the lactation period

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A.P. Rocha-de-Melo

    1997-05-01

    Full Text Available Lactating rat dams were submitted to short episodes (1, 2 or 3 weeks of nutritional restriction by receiving the "regional basic diet" (RBD, with 8% protein of low-income human populations of Northeast Brazil. Their pups were then studied regarding the developmental effects on body and brain weights. When the rats reached adulthood, cortical susceptibility to the phenomenon of spreading depression (SD was evaluated by performing electrophysiological recordings on the surface of the cerebral cortex. SD was elicited at 20-min intervals by applying 2% KCl for 1 min to a site on the frontal cortex and its occurrence was monitored at 2 sites in the parietal region by recording the electrocorticogram and the slow potential change of SD. When compared to control rats fed a commercial diet with 23% protein, early malnourished rats showed deficits in body and brain weights (10% to 60% and 3% to 15%, respectively, as well as increases in velocity of SD propagation (10% to 20%. These effects were directly related to the duration of maternal dietary restriction, with pups malnourished for 2 or 3 weeks presenting more intense weight and SD changes than those malnourished for 1 week. The effects of 1-week restrictions on SD were less evident in the pups malnourished during the second week of lactation and were more evident in pups receiving the RBD during the third week. The results indicate that short episodes of early malnutrition during the suckling period can affect body and brain development, as well as the cortical susceptibility to SD during adulthood. The data also suggest that the third week of lactation is the period during which the brain is most sensitive to malnutrition, concerning the effects on SD

  13. Exercise during Short-Term and Long-Term Continuous Exposure to Hypoxia Exacerbates Sleep-Related Periodic Breathing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tellez, Helio Fernandez; Morrison, Shawnda A; Neyt, Xavier; Mairesse, Olivier; Piacentini, Maria Francesca; Macdonald-Nethercott, Eoin; Pangerc, Andrej; Dolenc-Groselj, Leja; Eiken, Ola; Pattyn, Nathalie; Mekjavic, Igor B; Meeusen, Romain

    2016-04-01

    Exposure to hypoxia elevates chemosensitivity, which can lead to periodic breathing. Exercise impacts gas exchange, altering chemosensitivity; however, interactions between sleep, exercise and chronic hypoxic exposure have not been examined. This study investigated whether exercise exacerbates sleep-related periodic breathing in hypoxia. Two experimental phases. Short-Term Phase: a laboratory controlled, group-design study in which 16 active, healthy men (age: 25 ± 3 y, height: 1.79 ± 0.06 m, mass: 74 ± 8 kg) were confined to a normobaric hypoxic environment (FIO2 = 0.139 ± 0.003, 4,000 m) for 10 days, after random assignment to a sedentary (control, CON) or cycle-exercise group (EX). Long-Term Phase: conducted at the Concordia Antarctic Research Station (3,800 m equivalent at the Equator) where 14 men (age: 36 ± 9 y, height: 1.77 ± 0.09 m, mass: 75 ± 10 kg) lived for 12-14 months, continuously confined. Participants were stratified post hoc based on self-reported physical activity levels. We quantified apnea-hypopnea index (AHI) and physical activity variables. Short-Term Phase: mean AHI scores were significantly elevated in the EX group compared to CON (Night1 = CON: 39 ± 51, EX: 91 ± 59; Night10 = CON: 32 ± 32, EX: 92 ± 48; P = 0.046). Long-Term Phase: AHI was correlated to mean exercise time (R(2) = 0.4857; P = 0.008) and the coefficient of variation in night oxyhemoglobin saturation (SpO2; R(2) = 0.3062; P = 0.049). Data indicate that exercise (physical activity) per se affects night SpO2 concentrations and AHI after a minimum of two bouts of moderate-intensity hypoxic exercise, while habitual physical activity in hypobaric hypoxic confinement affects breathing during sleep, up to 13+ months' duration. © 2016 Associated Professional Sleep Societies, LLC.

  14. Complex {PT}-symmetric extensions of the nonlinear ultra-short light pulse model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Zhenya

    2012-11-01

    The short pulse equation u_{xt}=u+\\frac{1}{2}(u^2u_x)_x is PT symmetric, which arises in nonlinear optics for the ultra-short pulse case. We present a family of new complex PT-symmetric extensions of the short pulse equation, i[(iu_x)^{\\sigma }]_t=au+bu^m+ic[u^n(iu_x)^{\\epsilon }]_x \\,\\, (\\sigma ,\\, \\epsilon ,\\,a,\\,b,\\,c,\\,m,\\,n \\in {R}), based on the complex PT-symmetric extension principle. Some properties of these equations with some chosen parameters are studied including the Hamiltonian structures and exact solutions such as solitary wave solutions, doubly periodic wave solutions and compacton solutions. Our results may be useful to understand complex PT-symmetric nonlinear physical models. This article is part of a special issue of Journal of Physics A: Mathematical and Theoretical devoted to ‘Quantum physics with non-Hermitian operators’.

  15. The impact of short periods of match congestion on injury risk and patterns in an elite football club.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carling, Chris; McCall, Alan; Le Gall, Franck; Dupont, Gregory

    2016-06-01

    The effect of fixture congestion on injury rates and patterns has received scarce attention in elite football and existing investigations have not accounted for player rotation or examined the temporal distribution and potential cause of injuries. To prospectively investigate the epidemiology of injury during short periods of fixture congestion in a professional football club. Over a six-season period, exposure time and injury data were compared in the same players (n=25 (14 individuals)) when participating in two frequently occurring short congested fixture cycles in comparison to match-play outside these cycles. (1) two successive matches separated by an interval totalling ≤3 days calculated immediately from the end of play in match 1 to the beginning of play in match 2; (2) three successive matches separated by ≤4-day intervals starting the day immediately after each match. In two-match congestion cycles, incidence rate ratios (IRR) showed that there was a higher risk of injury in the final 15 min of play in the second match in comparison to match-play outside the cycles (IRR: 3.1 (95% CI 1.1 to 9.3), p=0.0400). A greater risk of injury overall (IRR: 2.0 (95% CI 1.1 to 3.8), p=0.0345) and in the first-half of play (2.6 (1.1 to 6,5), p=0.0386), and risk of ankle sprains (10.4 (95% CI 1.9 to 57.9), p=0.0068) and non-contact injuries due to a 'change in direction' (IRR: 7.8 (1.3 to 46.8), p=0.0243) were observed in the final match of three-match congestion cycles in comparison to match-play outside the cycles. Injury rates and patterns were affected in the same elite football players when competing in short congested fixture cycles in comparison to match-play outside the cycles. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

  16. A Short-Term Photovoltaic Power Prediction Model Based on an FOS-ELM Algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jidong Wang

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available With the increasing proportion of photovoltaic (PV power in power systems, the problem of its fluctuation and intermittency has become more prominent. To reduce the negative influence of the use of PV power, we propose a short-term PV power prediction model based on the online sequential extreme learning machine with forgetting mechanism (FOS-ELM, which can constantly replace outdated data with new data. We use historical weather data and historical PV power data to predict the PV power in the next period of time. The simulation result shows that this model has the advantages of a short training time and high accuracy. This model can help the power dispatch department schedule generation plans as well as support spatial and temporal compensation and coordinated power control, which is important for the security and stability as well as the optimal operation of power systems.

  17. Forecast model of landslides in a short time

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sanchez Lopez, Reinaldo

    2006-01-01

    The IDEAM in development of their functions as member of the national technical committee for the prevention and disasters attention (SNPAD) accomplishes the follow-up, monitoring and forecast in real time of the environmental dynamics that in extreme situations constitute threats and natural risks. One of the frequent dynamics and of greater impact is related to landslides, those that affect persistently the life of the persons, the infrastructure, the socioeconomic activities and the balance of the environment. The landslide in Colombia and in the world are caused mainly by effects of the rain, due to that, IDEAM has come developing forecast model, as an instrument for risk management in a short time. This article presents aspects related to their structure, operation, temporary space resolution, products, results, achievements and projections of the model. Conceptually, the model is support by the principle of the dynamic temporary - space, of the processes that consolidate natural hazards, particularly in areas where the man has come building the risk. Structurally, the model is composed by two sub-models; the general susceptibility of the earthly model and the critical rain model as a denotative factor, that consolidate the hazard process. In real time, the model, works as a GIS, permitting the automatic zoning of the landslides hazard for issue public advisory warming to help makers decisions on the risk that cause frequently these events, in the country

  18. The OmegaWhite survey for short-period variable stars - III: follow-up photometric and spectroscopic observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macfarlane, S. A.; Woudt, P. A.; Groot, P. J.; Ramsay, G.; Toma, R.; Motsoaledi, M.; Crause, L. A.; Gilbank, D. G.; O'Donoghue, D.; Potter, S. B.; Sickafoose, A. A.; van Gend, C.; Worters, H. L.

    2017-02-01

    We present photometric and spectroscopic follow-up observations of short-period variables discovered in the OmegaWhite survey, a wide-field high-cadence g-band synoptic survey targeting the Galactic Plane. We have used fast photometry on the SAAO 1.0- and 1.9-m telescopes to obtain light curves of 27 variables, and use these results to validate the period and amplitude estimates from the OmegaWhite processing pipeline. Furthermore, 57 sources (44 unique, 13 with new light curves) were selected for spectroscopic follow-up using either the SAAO 1.9-m telescope or the Southern African Large Telescope. We find that many of these variables have spectra which are consistent with being δ Scuti-type pulsating stars. At higher amplitudes, we detect four possible pulsating white dwarf/subdwarf sources and an eclipsing cataclysmic variable. Due to their rarity, these targets are ideal candidates for detailed follow-up studies. From spectroscopy, we confirm the symbiotic binary star nature of two variables identified as such in the SIMBAD database. We also report what could possibly be the first detection of the `Bump Cepheid' phenomena in a δ Scuti star, with OW J175848.21-271653.7 showing a pronounced 22 per cent amplitude dip lasting 3 min during each pulsational cycle peak. However, the precise nature of this target is still uncertain as it exhibits the spectral features of a B-type star.

  19. Performance of a reactor containing denitrifying immobilized biomass in removing ethanol and aromatic hydrocarbons (BTEX) in a short operating period

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gusmao, Valquiria Ribeiro; Chinalia, Fabio Alexandre; Sakamoto, Isabel Kimiko; Varesche, Maria Bernadete Amancio

    2007-01-01

    A horizontal-flow anaerobic immobilized biomass reactor (HAIB) containing denitrifying biomass was evaluated with respect to its ability to remove, separately and in a short operating period (30 days), organic matter, nitrate, and the hydrocarbons benzene (41.4 mg L -1 ), toluene (27.8 mg L -1 ), ethylbenzene (31.1 mg L -1 ), o-xylene (28.5 mg L -1 ), m-xylene (28.4 mg L -1 ) and p-xylene (32.1 mg L -1 ). The purified culture, which was grown in the presence of the specific hydrocarbon, was used as the source of cells to be immobilized in the polyurethane foam. After 30 days of operation, the foam was removed and a new immobilized biomass was grown in the presence of another hydrocarbon. The average hydrocarbon removal efficiency attained was 97%. The organic matter, especially ethanol, was removed with an average efficiency of 83% at a mean influent concentration of 1185.0 mg L -1 . A concomitant removal of 97% of nitrate was observed for a mean influent concentration of 423.4 mg L -1 . The independent removal of each hydrocarbon demonstrated that these contaminants can be biodegraded separately, without the need for a compound to be the primary substrate for the degradation of another. This study proposes the application of the system for treatment of areas contaminated with these compounds, with substitution and formation of a biofilm in a 30-day period

  20. Study of short-period RS Canum Venaticorum and W Ursae Majoris binary systems: The global nature of Hα

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barden, S.C.

    1985-01-01

    I present the rotation versus emission characteristics of the Hα line for several short-period (P -5 ) and the Rossby number (the ratio between the rotational period and the convective time scale) is seen for those components showing emission. Such a correlation suggests that the Hα line is a good diagnostic for the study of the magnetic-related activity in late-type stellar systems. Plotting the L/sub Halpha//L/sub bol/ against a measure of the tidal amplitude of Scharlemann shows that the activity of the W UMa secondary components may be shut off by the tidal forces of the primaries. The shut-off appears in those components having a tidal amplitude > or approx. =0.02. It is, however, unclear whether the tidal damping of the differential rotation is the sole mechanism responsible for the shut-off of the Hα emission, as the activity damping may also be attributable to the contact nature of the W UMa systems

  1. The first multi-color photometric study of the short-period contact eclipsing binary GK Aqr

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Liyun; Pi, Qingfeng; Han, Xianming L.; Li, TongAn; Zhang, Xiliang; Sang, Hongyan; Wang, Daimei; Wang, Shuai

    2015-07-01

    We made the first VRI CCD light curves of the short-period contact eclipsing binary GK Aqr, which was observed on October 5 and 8, 2013 at Xinglong station of National Astronomical Observatories, China. The ephemeris of GK Aqr was calculated based on our two newly obtained minima and the minima that other observers obtained previously. We discovered that the orbital period of GK Aqr exhibits an increasing trend of P ˙ = 2.8 (0.1) ×10-7 days/year by means of fitting the O-C values of the minima. This phenomenon might be explained by mass transfer from the primary (less massive) component to the secondary (more massive) one. With the updated Wilson & Devinney program, we obtained the photometric orbital parameters for the first time. Using our parameters, we also successfully explained the light curve obtained from the All Sky Automated Survey data. In the end, we concluded that GK Aqr is a near contact binary with a low contact factor of 5.2%. As the mass transfer continues, GK Aqr could become a contact system and evolve into an over-contact system.

  2. On the stochastic SIS epidemic model in a periodic environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bacaër, Nicolas

    2015-08-01

    In the stochastic SIS epidemic model with a contact rate a, a recovery rate b < a, and a population size N, the mean extinction time τ is such that (log τ)/N converges to c = b/a - 1 - log(b/a) as N grows to infinity. This article considers the more realistic case where the contact rate a(t) is a periodic function whose average is bigger than b. Then log τ/N converges to a new limit C, which is linked to a time-periodic Hamilton-Jacobi equation. When a(t) is a cosine function with small amplitude or high (resp. low) frequency, approximate formulas for C can be obtained analytically following the method used in Assaf et al. (Phys Rev E 78:041123, 2008). These results are illustrated by numerical simulations.

  3. MARVELS-1b: A SHORT-PERIOD, BROWN DWARF DESERT CANDIDATE FROM THE SDSS-III MARVELS PLANET SEARCH

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Brian L.; Ge Jian; Fleming, Scott W.; Mahadevan, Suvrath; Sivarani, Thirupathi; Stassun, Keivan G.; Gary, Bruce; Pepper, Joshua; Gaudi, B. Scott; Eastman, Jason D.; Siverd, Robert J.; Barnes, Rory; Laws, Chris; Wisniewski, John P.; Wright, Jason; Ghezzi, Luan; Ogando, Ricardo L. C.; Maia, Marcio A. G.; Da Costa, Luiz Nicolaci; Porto de Mello, G. F.

    2011-01-01

    We present a new short-period brown dwarf (BD) candidate around the star TYC 1240-00945-1. This candidate was discovered in the first year of the Multi-object APO Radial Velocity Exoplanets Large-area Survey (MARVELS), which is part of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) III, and we designate the BD as MARVELS-1b. MARVELS uses the technique of dispersed fixed-delay interferometery to simultaneously obtain radial velocity (RV) measurements for 60 objects per field using a single, custom-built instrument that is fiber fed from the SDSS 2.5 m telescope. From our 20 RV measurements spread over a ∼370 day time baseline, we derive a Keplerian orbital fit with semi-amplitude K = 2.533 ± 0.025 km s -1 , period P = 5.8953 ± 0.0004 days, and eccentricity consistent with circular. Independent follow-up RV data confirm the orbit. Adopting a mass of 1.37 ± 0.11 M sun for the slightly evolved F9 host star, we infer that the companion has a minimum mass of 28.0 ± 1.5 M Jup , a semimajor axis 0.071 ± 0.002 AU assuming an edge-on orbit, and is probably tidally synchronized. We find no evidence for coherent intrinsic variability of the host star at the period of the companion at levels greater than a few millimagnitudes. The companion has an a priori transit probability of ∼14%. Although we find no evidence for transits, we cannot definitively rule them out for companion radii ∼ Jup .

  4. A variational study of superconducting correlations within periodic Anderson model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dua, Piyush; Panwar, Sunil; Singh, Ishwar

    2005-01-01

    In this work we present the study of heavy fermion (HF) systems represented by the extended periodic Anderson model (PAM). A term, which contains the superconducting correlations, has been included in the conventional PAM. The study has been carried out at finite U. We have used the variational method. The variational wavefunction contains two variational parameters A kσ and B kσ . We have found that both the variational parameters are mutually dependent. We have studied ground state as well as finite temperature properties. We have found that T c increases, as J increases

  5. Modeling Periodic Impulsive Effects on Online TV Series Diffusion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, Peihua; Zhu, Anding; Fang, Qiwen; Wang, Xi

    Online broadcasting substantially affects the production, distribution, and profit of TV series. In addition, online word-of-mouth significantly affects the diffusion of TV series. Because on-demand streaming rates are the most important factor that influences the earnings of online video suppliers, streaming statistics and forecasting trends are valuable. In this paper, we investigate the effects of periodic impulsive stimulation and pre-launch promotion on on-demand streaming dynamics. We consider imbalanced audience feverish distribution using an impulsive susceptible-infected-removed(SIR)-like model. In addition, we perform a correlation analysis of online buzz volume based on Baidu Index data. We propose a PI-SIR model to evolve audience dynamics and translate them into on-demand streaming fluctuations, which can be observed and comprehended by online video suppliers. Six South Korean TV series datasets are used to test the model. We develop a coarse-to-fine two-step fitting scheme to estimate the model parameters, first by fitting inter-period accumulation and then by fitting inner-period feverish distribution. We find that audience members display similar viewing habits. That is, they seek new episodes every update day but fade away. This outcome means that impulsive intensity plays a crucial role in on-demand streaming diffusion. In addition, the initial audience size and online buzz are significant factors. On-demand streaming fluctuation is highly correlated with online buzz fluctuation. To stimulate audience attention and interpersonal diffusion, it is worthwhile to invest in promotion near update days. Strong pre-launch promotion is also a good marketing tool to improve overall performance. It is not advisable for online video providers to promote several popular TV series on the same update day. Inter-period accumulation is a feasible forecasting tool to predict the future trend of the on-demand streaming amount. The buzz in public social communities

  6. Modeling Periodic Impulsive Effects on Online TV Series Diffusion.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peihua Fu

    Full Text Available Online broadcasting substantially affects the production, distribution, and profit of TV series. In addition, online word-of-mouth significantly affects the diffusion of TV series. Because on-demand streaming rates are the most important factor that influences the earnings of online video suppliers, streaming statistics and forecasting trends are valuable. In this paper, we investigate the effects of periodic impulsive stimulation and pre-launch promotion on on-demand streaming dynamics. We consider imbalanced audience feverish distribution using an impulsive susceptible-infected-removed(SIR-like model. In addition, we perform a correlation analysis of online buzz volume based on Baidu Index data.We propose a PI-SIR model to evolve audience dynamics and translate them into on-demand streaming fluctuations, which can be observed and comprehended by online video suppliers. Six South Korean TV series datasets are used to test the model. We develop a coarse-to-fine two-step fitting scheme to estimate the model parameters, first by fitting inter-period accumulation and then by fitting inner-period feverish distribution.We find that audience members display similar viewing habits. That is, they seek new episodes every update day but fade away. This outcome means that impulsive intensity plays a crucial role in on-demand streaming diffusion. In addition, the initial audience size and online buzz are significant factors. On-demand streaming fluctuation is highly correlated with online buzz fluctuation.To stimulate audience attention and interpersonal diffusion, it is worthwhile to invest in promotion near update days. Strong pre-launch promotion is also a good marketing tool to improve overall performance. It is not advisable for online video providers to promote several popular TV series on the same update day. Inter-period accumulation is a feasible forecasting tool to predict the future trend of the on-demand streaming amount. The buzz in public

  7. Short Period Starvation in Rat: The Effect of Aloe Vera Gel Extract on Oxidative Stress Status Ion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laleh SHAHRAKI MOJAHED

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The main aim of this experiment was to evaluate the effect of Aloe vera gel extract on oxidative stress status during starvation. For this purpose, twenty-four mature male albino Wistar rats were housed in standard cages. In this study starvation cycle (rats were starved for two days and then were fed for one day was used. This study was performed during short period (20 days. Animals were divided into four experimental groups (six rats in each group: 1 normal control; 2 starved rats+water/ethanol; 3 starved rats+hydro-alcoholic Aloe vera gel extract (100 mg/kg; 4 starved rats+hydro-alcoholic Aloe vera gel extract (200 mg/kg. Blood samples were obtained using cardiac puncture. In blood samples, antioxidant enzymes including superoxide dismutase (SOD, glutathione peroxidase (GPx and catalase (CAT, antioxidant trace elements including copper, zinc and manganese and antioxidant vitamins including vitamin A, vitamin E and vitamin C were measured. Plasma levels of antioxidant enzymes (SOD, GPx and catalase significantly decreased in starved rats+water/ethanol group (P0.05. Plasma levels of vitamin A and E in normal control group had no significant difference with starved rats+water/ethanol and starved rats+hydro-alcoholic Aloe vera gel extract in the 100 and 200 mg/kg dose groups (P>0.05. Plasma level of vitamin C significantly decreased in starved rats+water/ethanol group (P<0.05. Plasma level of vitamin C after treatment with hydro-alcoholic Aloe vera gel extract at doses 100 and 200 mg/kg were significantly increased (P<0.05. Our results shown that short term starvation caused an increase in oxidative stress via impairing of antioxidant defense and Aloe vera treatment is able to improve antioxidative defense induced by starvation.

  8. Modelling hot electron generation in short pulse target heating experiments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sircombe N.J.

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Target heating experiments planned for the Orion laser facility, and electron beam driven fast ignition schemes, rely on the interaction of a short pulse high intensity laser with dense material to generate a flux of energetic electrons. It is essential that the characteristics of this electron source are well known in order to inform transport models in radiation hydrodynamics codes and allow effective evaluation of experimental results and forward modelling of future campaigns. We present results obtained with the particle in cell (PIC code EPOCH for realistic target and laser parameters, including first and second harmonic light. The hot electron distributions are characterised and their implications for onward transport and target heating are considered with the aid of the Monte-Carlo transport code THOR.

  9. Spin-liquid state in an inhomogeneous periodic Anderson model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caro, R. C.; Franco, R.; Silva-Valencia, J.

    2018-02-01

    We studied the ground state of alkaline-earth-metal atoms confined in one-dimensional optical lattices with an effective hybridization generated by a suitable laser field. This system is modeled by the periodic Anderson model plus a quadratic confining potential, and we adopted the density-matrix renormalization group to calculate its ground state. We found a one-to-one correspondence between the local variance, the local von Neumann entropy, and the on-site spin-spin correlation. For low global densities, we observed the formation of local singlets between delocalized and localized atoms and found Kondo spin-liquid domains that can be tuned with the confining potential, the hybridization, and the local repulsion. Band insulator, metallic, phase separation, and Kondo spin-liquid regions coexist in the ground state.

  10. Superconductivity in the periodic Anderson model with anisotropic hybridization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sarasua, L.G.; Continentino, Mucio A.

    2003-01-01

    In this work we study superconductivity in the periodic Anderson model with both on-site and intersite hybridization, including the interband Coulomb repulsion. We show that the presence of the intersite hybridization together with the on-site hybridization significantly affects the superconducting properties of the system. The symmetry of the hybridization has a strong influence in the symmetry of the superconducting order parameter of the ground state. The interband Coulomb repulsion may increase or decrease the superconducting critical temperature at small values of this interaction, while is detrimental to superconductivity for strong values. We show that the present model can give rise to positive or negative values of dT c /dP, depending on the values of the system parameters

  11. Using genetic algorithm to solve a new multi-period stochastic optimization model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xin-Li; Zhang, Ke-Cun

    2009-09-01

    This paper presents a new asset allocation model based on the CVaR risk measure and transaction costs. Institutional investors manage their strategic asset mix over time to achieve favorable returns subject to various uncertainties, policy and legal constraints, and other requirements. One may use a multi-period portfolio optimization model in order to determine an optimal asset mix. Recently, an alternative stochastic programming model with simulated paths was proposed by Hibiki [N. Hibiki, A hybrid simulation/tree multi-period stochastic programming model for optimal asset allocation, in: H. Takahashi, (Ed.) The Japanese Association of Financial Econometrics and Engineering, JAFFE Journal (2001) 89-119 (in Japanese); N. Hibiki A hybrid simulation/tree stochastic optimization model for dynamic asset allocation, in: B. Scherer (Ed.), Asset and Liability Management Tools: A Handbook for Best Practice, Risk Books, 2003, pp. 269-294], which was called a hybrid model. However, the transaction costs weren't considered in that paper. In this paper, we improve Hibiki's model in the following aspects: (1) The risk measure CVaR is introduced to control the wealth loss risk while maximizing the expected utility; (2) Typical market imperfections such as short sale constraints, proportional transaction costs are considered simultaneously. (3) Applying a genetic algorithm to solve the resulting model is discussed in detail. Numerical results show the suitability and feasibility of our methodology.

  12. Evidence of negative electrorefraction in type-II GaAs/GaAlAs short-period superlattice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shchukin, V. A.; Ledentsov, N. N.; Karachinsky, L. Ya; Blokhin, S. A.; Novikov, I. I.; Egorov, A. Yu; Maximov, M. V.; Gordeev, N. Yu; Kulagina, M. M.; Ustinov, V. M.

    2015-11-01

    A type-II GaAs/GaAlAs short-period superlattice (SPSL) used as an electro-optic medium for the spectral range 820-850 nm is studied in a vertical microcavity geometry. SPSL is sandwiched between two GaAlAs distributed Bragg reflectors. Optical power reflectance (OR) spectra are measured as a function of applied reverse bias at different tilt angles and temperatures. All spectra reveal a blue shift of the reflectivity dip upon applied voltage which evidences a negative electrorefraction of the electro-optic medium. The shift enhances up to ˜0.6 nm once the exciton resonance is brought close to the wavelength of the reflectivity dip. As opposed to those modulators based on quantum-confined Stark effect, no increased absorption is observed at an applied bias, because the integrated intensity of the reflectivity dip in the OR spectra is virtually constant. This indicates a low absorption loss with applied bias and consequently a high potential for the increased dynamic range of the related modulator.

  13. Nature of short-period microtremors on the cliff-like ground. 3; Gakechi kinbo no tanshuki bido . 3

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maiguma, T.; Matsuzawa, H. [Saitama University, Saitama (Japan). Faculty of Engineering

    1996-05-01

    Vibration characteristics were investigated of the ground in the vicinity of a cliff-like sharp slope. Short-period microtremors were observed in the vicinity of an artificially made cliff-like test ground, height 8m and inclination 90{degree}, and a natural cliff, height approximately 9m and inclination approximately 35{degree}. The artificial cliff was reinforced by a virtually vertical retaining wall of concrete, and the ground was prepared for testing with a belt approximately 20m wide and 50m long along the cliff face. All the vibration components were simultaneously measured at measuring spots that were located 5-40m apart from the cliff end and orientated perpendicular to the cliff face. It was then found that in case of artificial cliff there is a conspicuous 3.1Hz prevalent ground vibration in the component squarely meeting the cliff face, that the prevalent ground vibration is not particularly great near the cliff end because the retaining wall and the ground are artificially prepared, that there is no influence of the cliff-like ground in the ground vibration parallel to or vertical along the cliff face, and that in case of natural ground there are no vibration characteristic proper to a cliff-like ground in any of the vibration components. 3 refs., 7 figs.

  14. Nature of short-period microtremors on the cliff-like ground. Part 4; Gakechi kinbo no tanshuki bido. 4

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maiguma, T.; Yoshiike, T. [Waseda University, Tokyo (Japan). School of Science and Engineering

    1996-10-01

    Microtremors were measured on the cliff-like ground with a height about 10 m, to examine the vibration characteristics. Test field-1 near Akabane, Kita-ku, Tokyo is located in a part of Musashino plateau covered with Kanto loam on its surface, and has relatively sound ground. Test field-2 at Machida is located in the western part of Tama hills, and also has Kanto loam on its surface. For the cliff-like ground with inclined angle 70{degree} at Akabane, remarkably predominant frequency 3.2 Hz was observed for the microtremors in the direction perpendicular to the cliff surface. However, this predominant vibration did not become larger due to the damping effects of the reinforcement walls near the end of cliff and the large trees on the cliff. Influence of the cliff-like ground was scarcely observed in the microtremors spectrum in both the directions parallel and vertical to the cliff-surface. From the observation of microtremors with short period on the cliff-like ground with inclined angle around 32{degree} at Machida, influence of cliff-like ground was not observed in the microtremors spectrum in all of the vibrating directions perpendicular, parallel and vertical to the cliff surface. 3 refs., 10 figs.

  15. The IEA Model of Short-term Energy Security

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2011-07-01

    Ensuring energy security has been at the centre of the IEA mission since its inception, following the oil crises of the early 1970s. While the security of oil supplies remains important, contemporary energy security policies must address all energy sources and cover a comprehensive range of natural, economic and political risks that affect energy sources, infrastructures and services. In response to this challenge, the IEA is currently developing a Model Of Short-term Energy Security (MOSES) to evaluate the energy security risks and resilience capacities of its member countries. The current version of MOSES covers short-term security of supply for primary energy sources and secondary fuels among IEA countries. It also lays the foundation for analysis of vulnerabilities of electricity and end-use energy sectors. MOSES contains a novel approach to analysing energy security, which can be used to identify energy security priorities, as a starting point for national energy security assessments and to track the evolution of a country's energy security profile. By grouping together countries with similar 'energy security profiles', MOSES depicts the energy security landscape of IEA countries. By extending the MOSES methodology to electricity security and energy services in the future, the IEA aims to develop a comprehensive policy-relevant perspective on global energy security. This Working Paper is intended for readers who wish to explore the MOSES methodology in depth; there is also a brochure which provides an overview of the analysis and results.

  16. Pulsed Gamma-Ray Emission From Short-Period Pulsars: Predicted Gamma-Ray Pulsar PSR1951+32

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, K. S.; Ding, K. Y. Winnis

    1995-03-01

    We studied the gamma-ray emission mechanisms from pulsars with period, P, between 4.6 times 10(-2) B12(2/5) s and 0.17 B12(5/12) sin (1/6) theta alpha (-5/4) s in terms of outermagnetospheric gap model. We found that the spectra of all known gamma -ray pulsars can be fitted by two free parameters, namely, alpha r_L, the mean distance to the outergap, and sin theta , the mean pitch angle of the secondary e(+/-) pairs. Gamma-rays from those pulsars with P 432, 724) which is confirmed by the recent GRO result.

  17. [Model of short-term psychological intervention in psychosomatic gynaecology].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zutter, A-M; Bianchi-Demicheli, F

    2004-02-01

    This article proposes a rapid psychological intervention model in psychosomatic gynaecology. The work draws from the method developed by Dr H. Davanloo (Intensive Short Term Dynamic Psychotherapy). First it consists in identifying and clarifying the defence mechanisms, second in exercising pressure on them. This pressure causes an increase in anxiety, an intensification of the defence mechanisms and the development of an intrapsychic crisis that induces emotions and painful feelings linked to past traumata. This activation of the unconscious can activate somatic symptoms (pain, unconscious movements, tics, muscular tensions) that highlight the link between the physical and psychic aspects. This work allows a rapid access to the painful emotions that turn to symptom. It indicates the therapeutic intervention zones and levels. It allows translating psychic reality in a simple, fast and efficient way. It brings heightened consciousness and comprehension for the therapist and the patient.

  18. DEEP LEARNING MODEL FOR BILINGUAL SENTIMENT CLASSIFICATION OF SHORT TEXTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. B. Abdullin

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Sentiment analysis of short texts such as Twitter messages and comments in news portals is challenging due to the lack of contextual information. We propose a deep neural network model that uses bilingual word embeddings to effectively solve sentiment classification problem for a given pair of languages. We apply our approach to two corpora of two different language pairs: English-Russian and Russian-Kazakh. We show how to train a classifier in one language and predict in another. Our approach achieves 73% accuracy for English and 74% accuracy for Russian. For Kazakh sentiment analysis, we propose a baseline method, that achieves 60% accuracy; and a method to learn bilingual embeddings from a large unlabeled corpus using a bilingual word pairs.

  19. Compressible ferrimagnetism in the depleted periodic Anderson model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costa, N. C.; Araújo, M. V.; Lima, J. P.; Paiva, T.; dos Santos, R. R.; Scalettar, R. T.

    2018-02-01

    Tight-binding Hamiltonians with single and multiple orbitals exhibit an intriguing array of magnetic phase transitions. In most cases the spin ordered phases are insulating, while the disordered phases may be either metallic or insulating. In this paper we report a determinant quantum Monte Carlo study of interacting electrons in a geometry which can be regarded as a two-dimensional periodic Anderson model with depleted interacting (f ) orbitals. For a single depletion, we observe an enhancement of antiferromagnetic correlations and formation of localized states. For half of the f orbitals regularly depleted, the system exhibits a ferrimagnetic ground state. We obtain a quantitative determination of the nature of magnetic order, which we discuss in the context of Tsunetsugu's theorem, and show that, although the dc conductivity indicates insulating behavior at half filling, the compressibility remains finite.

  20. X-slave boson approach to the periodic Anderson model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Franco, R.; Figueira, M.S.; Foglio, M.E.

    2001-01-01

    The periodic anderson model (PAM) in the limit U=∞, can be studied by employing the Hubbard X operators to project out the unwanted states. In a previous work, we have studied the cumulant expansion of this Hamiltonian employing the hybridization as a perturbation, but probability conservation of the local states (completeness) is not usually satisfied when partial expansions like the 'chain approximation (CHA)' are employed. To consider this problem, we use a technique similar to the one employed by Coleman to treat the same problem with slave-bosons in the mean-field approximation. Assuming a particular renormalization for hybridization, we obtain a description that avoids an unwanted phase transition that appears in the mean-field slave-boson method at intermediate temperatures

  1. Attenuation of short-period P, PcP, ScP, and pP waves in the earth's mantle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bock, G.; Clements, J.R.

    1982-01-01

    The parameter t* (ratio of body wave travel time to the average quality factor Q) was estimated under various assumptions of the nature of the earthquake sources for short-period P, PcP, and ScP phases originating from earthquakes in the Fiji-Tonga region and recorded at the Warramunga Seismic Array at Tennant Creek (Northern Territory, Australia). Spectral ratios were calculated for the amplitudes of PcP to P and of pP to P. The data reveal a laterally varying Q structure in the Fiji-Tonga region. The high-Q lithosphere descending beneath the Tonga Island arc is overlain above 350 km depth by a wedgelike zone of high attenuation with an average Q/sub α/ between 120 and 200 at short periods. The upper mantle farther to the west of the Tonga island arc is less attenuating, with Q/sub α/, between 370 and 560. Q/sub α/ is about 500 in the upper mantle on the oceanic side of the subduction zone. The t* estimates of this study are much smaller than estimates from the free oscillation model SL8. This can be partly explained by regional variations of Q in the upper mantle. If no lateral Q variations occur in the lower mantle, a frequency-dependent Q can make the PcP and ScP observations consistent with model SL8. Adopting the absorption band model to describe the frequency dependence of Q, the parameter tau 2 , the cut-off period of the high-frequency end of the absorption band, was determined. For different source models with finite corner frequencies, the average tau 2 for the mantle is between 0.01 and 0.10 s (corresponding to frequencies between 16 and 1.6 Hz) as derived from the PcP data, and between 0.06 and 0.12 s (2.7 and 1.3 Hz), as derived from the ScP data

  2. Task-irrelevant distractors in the delay period interfere selectively with visual short-term memory for spatial locations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marini, Francesco; Scott, Jerry; Aron, Adam R; Ester, Edward F

    2017-07-01

    Visual short-term memory (VSTM) enables the representation of information in a readily accessible state. VSTM is typically conceptualized as a form of "active" storage that is resistant to interference or disruption, yet several recent studies have shown that under some circumstances task-irrelevant distractors may indeed disrupt performance. Here, we investigated how task-irrelevant visual distractors affected VSTM by asking whether distractors induce a general loss of remembered information or selectively interfere with memory representations. In a VSTM task, participants recalled the spatial location of a target visual stimulus after a delay in which distractors were presented on 75% of trials. Notably, the distractor's eccentricity always matched the eccentricity of the target, while in the critical conditions the distractor's angular position was shifted either clockwise or counterclockwise relative to the target. We then computed estimates of recall error for both eccentricity and polar angle. A general interference model would predict an effect of distractors on both polar angle and eccentricity errors, while a selective interference model would predict effects of distractors on angle but not on eccentricity errors. Results showed that for stimulus angle there was an increase in the magnitude and variability of recall errors. However, distractors had no effect on estimates of stimulus eccentricity. Our results suggest that distractors selectively interfere with VSTM for spatial locations.

  3. The origin and evolution of short-period Miras in the solar neighborhood: Constraints on the life cycle of old stars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jura, M.

    1994-01-01

    The spatial distribution of the short-period (P less than 300 days) oxygen-rich Miras in the solar neighborhood can be fitted with an exponential scale height above the Galactic plane of about 600 pc. Using the Gliese catalog of local main-sequence stars, we estimate that the density of suitable G-type progenitor dwarfs within 20 pc of the Sun for these short-period Miras is 6 x 10(exp -4)/cu pc. The portion of the H-R diagram near the main-sequence turnoff of these velocity-selected Gliese stars is intermediate between that of the old open cluster NGC 188 and that of the metal-rich globular cluster, 47 Tuc. We infer that the main-sequence progenitors of the short-period Miras have masses near 1.0 solar mass, and we estimate that these Miras have ages approximately 9 x 10(exp 9). We also identify a few old disk red giants in the neighborhood of the Sun. On the basis of very limited information, we estimate that the total amount of mass lost from these stars during their first ascent up the red giant branch is less than or equal to 0.1 solar mass. We derive a duration of the short-period Mira phase of close to 5 x 10(exp 5) yr. This estimate for the duration of the short period Mira phase is longer than our estimate of 2 x 10(exp 5) yr for the duration of the Mira phase for stars with periods longer than 300 days. From their infrared colors, we estimate a typical mass-loss rate from the short-period Miras of approximately 1 x 10(exp -7) solar mass/yr.

  4. Using targeted short-term field investigations to calibrate and evaluate the structure of a hydrological model

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Hughes, DA

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available This study combines the application of a hydrological model with the use of field data derived from short period measurement campaigns at two sites, one a low topography forested area and the other a steep grassland catchment. The main objective...

  5. Comprehensive two-dimensional gas chromatography using partial modulation via a pulsed flow valve with a short modulation period.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freye, Chris E; Bahaghighat, H Daniel; Synovec, Robert E

    2018-01-15

    Partial modulation via a pulsed flow valve for comprehensive two-dimensional (2D) gas chromatography (GC × GC) is demonstrated, producing narrow peak widths, 2 W b , on the secondary separation dimension, 2 D, coupled with short modulation periods, P M , thus producing a high peak capacity on the 2 D dimension, 2 n c . The GC × GC modulator is a pulse flow valve that injects a pulse of carrier gas at the specified P M , at the connection between the primary, 1 D, column and the 2 D column. Using a commercially available pulse flow valve, this injection technique performs a combination of vacancy chromatography and frontal analysis, whereby each pulse disturbance in the analyte concentration profile as it exits the 1 D column results in data that is readily converted into a 2 D separation. A three-step process converts the raw data into a format analogous to a GC × GC separation, incorporating signal differentiation, baseline correction and conversion to a GC × GC chromatogram representation. A 115-component test mixture with a wide range of boiling points (36-372°C) of nine compound classes is demonstrated using modulation periods of P M = 50, 100, 250, and 500ms, respectively. For the test mixture with a P M of 250ms, peak shapes on 2 D are symmetric with apparent 2 W b ranging from 12 to 45ms producing a 2 n c of ~ 10. Based on the average peak width of 0.93s on the 1 D separation for a time window of 400s, the 1 D peak capacity is 1 n c ∼ 430. Thus, the ideal 2D peak capacity n c,2D is 4300 or a peak capacity production of 650 peaks/min using the P M of 250ms. Additionally, for a P M of 50, 100 and 500ms, the 2 n c are 4, 7, and 12, respectively. Retention times on 2 D, 2 t R , are reproducible having standard deviations less than 1ms. Finally, the processed data is shown to be quantitative, with an average RSD of 4.7% for test analytes. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. InN/GaN short-period superlattices as ordered InGaN ternary alloys

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kusakabe, Kazuhide; Imai, Daichi; Wang, Ke; Yoshikawa, Akihiko

    2016-01-01

    Coherent (InN) 1 /(GaN) n short-period superlattices (SPSs) were successfully grown through dynamic atomic layer epitaxy (D-ALEp) mode by RF-plasma molecular beam epitaxy (MBE), where GaN layer thicknesses n were thinned down to 4 monolayer (ML). After this achievement, we demonstrated quasi-ternary InGaN behavior in their photoluminescence (PL) spectra for the first time. It was found interestingly that GaN layer thickness of n = 4 ML was the criterion both for structural control and continuum-band formation. Although highly lattice-mismatched InN/GaN interfaces easily introduce relaxation in (InN) 1 /(GaN) 4 SPSs during growth depending on the dynamic surface stoichiometry condition, this problem was overcome by precise control/removal of fluid-like residual In/Ga metals on the growth front with in-situ monitoring method. The (InN) 1 /(GaN) n SPSs with n ≥ 7 ML showed a constant PL peak energy around 3.2 eV at 12 K, reflecting discrete electron/hole wavefunctions. On the other hand, the (InN) 1 /(GaN) 4 SPSs indicated the red-shifted PL peak at 2.93 eV at 12 K, which was attributed to the continuum-band state with increasing in the overlap of electrons/hole wavefunctions. This result is concluded that the (InN) 1 /(GaN) 4 SPSs can be considered as ordered InGaN alloys. (copyright 2015 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH and Co. KGaA, Weinheim)

  7. Production of well-matured compost from night-soil sludge by an extremely short period of thermophilic composting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakasaki, Kiyohiko; Ohtaki, Akihito; Takemoto, Minoru; Fujiwara, Shunrokuro

    2011-03-01

    The effect of various operational conditions on the decomposition of organic material during the composting of night-soil treatment sludge was quantitatively examined. The optimum composting conditions were found to be a temperature of ca. 60°C and an initial pH value of 8. Rapid decomposition of organic matter ceased by the sixth day of composting under these optimum conditions, and the final value of the cumulative emission of carbon (E(C)), which represents the degree of organic matter decomposition, was less than 40%, indicating that the sludge contained only a small amount of easily degradable organic material. A plant growth assay using Komatsuna (Brassica campestris L. var. rapiferafroug) in a 1/5000a standard cultivation pot was then conducted for the compost at various degrees of organic matter decomposition: the raw composting material, the final compost obtained on day 6, and the 2 intermediate compost products (i.e., E(C)=10% and 20%). It was found that the larger the E(C), the greater the yield of Komatsuna growth. It was also found that 6 days of composting is sufficient to promote Komatsuna growth at the standard loading level, which is equivalent to a 1.5 g N/pot, since the promotion effect was as high as that obtained using chemical fertilizer. It can therefore be concluded that well-matured compost could be obtained in a short period of time (i.e., as early as 6 days), when night-soil sludge is composted under optimum conditions. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Dual-component model of respiratory motion based on the periodic autoregressive moving average (periodic ARMA) method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McCall, K C; Jeraj, R

    2007-01-01

    A new approach to the problem of modelling and predicting respiration motion has been implemented. This is a dual-component model, which describes the respiration motion as a non-periodic time series superimposed onto a periodic waveform. A periodic autoregressive moving average algorithm has been used to define a mathematical model of the periodic and non-periodic components of the respiration motion. The periodic components of the motion were found by projecting multiple inhale-exhale cycles onto a common subspace. The component of the respiration signal that is left after removing this periodicity is a partially autocorrelated time series and was modelled as an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) process. The accuracy of the periodic ARMA model with respect to fluctuation in amplitude and variation in length of cycles has been assessed. A respiration phantom was developed to simulate the inter-cycle variations seen in free-breathing and coached respiration patterns. At ±14% variability in cycle length and maximum amplitude of motion, the prediction errors were 4.8% of the total motion extent for a 0.5 s ahead prediction, and 9.4% at 1.0 s lag. The prediction errors increased to 11.6% at 0.5 s and 21.6% at 1.0 s when the respiration pattern had ±34% variations in both these parameters. Our results have shown that the accuracy of the periodic ARMA model is more strongly dependent on the variations in cycle length than the amplitude of the respiration cycles

  9. Dynamic Hybrid Model for Short-Term Electricity Price Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marin Cerjan

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Accurate forecasting tools are essential in the operation of electric power systems, especially in deregulated electricity markets. Electricity price forecasting is necessary for all market participants to optimize their portfolios. In this paper we propose a hybrid method approach for short-term hourly electricity price forecasting. The paper combines statistical techniques for pre-processing of data and a multi-layer (MLP neural network for forecasting electricity price and price spike detection. Based on statistical analysis, days are arranged into several categories. Similar days are examined by correlation significance of the historical data. Factors impacting the electricity price forecasting, including historical price factors, load factors and wind production factors are discussed. A price spike index (CWI is defined for spike detection and forecasting. Using proposed approach we created several forecasting models of diverse model complexity. The method is validated using the European Energy Exchange (EEX electricity price data records. Finally, results are discussed with respect to price volatility, with emphasis on the price forecasting accuracy.

  10. Wind Magnetic Clouds for the Period 2013 - 2015: Model Fitting, Types, Associated Shock Waves, and Comparisons to Other Periods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lepping, R. P.; Wu, C.-C.; Berdichevsky, D. B.; Szabo, A.

    2018-04-01

    We give the results of parameter fitting of the magnetic clouds (MCs) observed by the Wind spacecraft for the three-year period 2013 to the end of 2015 (called the "Present" period) using the MC model of Lepping, Jones, and Burlaga ( J. Geophys. Res. 95, 11957, 1990). The Present period is almost coincident with the solar maximum of the sunspot number, which has a broad peak starting in about 2012 and extending to almost 2015. There were 49 MCs identified in the Present period. The modeling gives MC quantities such as size, axial attitude, field handedness, axial magnetic-field strength, center time, and closest-approach vector. Derived quantities are also estimated, such as axial magnetic flux, axial current density, and total axial current. Quality estimates are assigned representing excellent, fair/good, and poor. We provide error estimates on the specific fit parameters for the individual MCs, where the poor cases are excluded. Model-fitting results that are based on the Present period are compared to the results of the full Wind mission from 1995 to the end of 2015 (Long-term period), and compared to the results of two other recent studies that encompassed the periods 2007 - 2009 and 2010 - 2012, inclusive. We see that during the Present period, the MCs are, on average, slightly slower, slightly weaker in axial magnetic field (by 8.7%), and larger in diameter (by 6.5%) than those in the Long-term period. However, in most respects, the MCs in the Present period are significantly closer in characteristics to those of the Long-term period than to those of the two recent three-year periods. However, the rate of occurrence of MCs for the Long-term period is 10.3 year^{-1}, whereas this rate for the Present period is 16.3 year^{-1}, similar to that of the period 2010 - 2012. Hence, the MC occurrence rate has increased appreciably in the last six years. MC Type (N-S, S-N, All N, All S, etc.) is assigned to each MC; there is an inordinately large percentage of All S

  11. Groundwater flow and transport modelling during a glaciation period

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jaquet, O.; Siegel, P.

    2003-01-01

    Subsequent to earlier work, SKB has decided to carry out additional hydrogeological modelling studies related to glaciation effects at Aespoe. In particular, sub glacial groundwater flow and the impact assessment on a repository require further studies. As compared to the previous model, the domain geometry and processes involved remain identical, but this time, numerical calculations are performed with the NAMMU package (version 7.1.1) using a finite element formulation. Modified assumptions corresponding to specific boundary conditions are implemented and additional variations of the base case are simulated. The objectives of the study are based on the technical specifications established by SKB. The main objectives may be summarised as follows: Enhancement of the understanding of sub glacial groundwater flow due to basal ice melting. Evaluation of the impact of sub glacial roundwater flow on a repository with respect to its position to the ice margin of the glacier. Assessment of the feasibility of performing large 3D simulations of density-driven flow induced by variable salinity of the groundwater using the NAMMU package. The report begins with an account of the modelling approach applied. Then, the results of the different cases simulated are described, analysed and interpreted in detail. Finally, conclusions are drawn up together with some recommendations related to potential modelling issues for the future. The objectives proposed for the groundwater flow and transport modelling for period of glaciation have been met: The results have shown the importance of the ice tunnels in governing sub glacial groundwater flow due to basal ice melting. The influence of the ice tunnels on the salinity distribution is significant as is their impact on the flow trajectories and, hence, on the resulting travel times. The results of simulation S0 have revealed that no steady-state flow conditions are reached. Due to the chosen salt boundary conditions, salt will continue to

  12. Spatial dynamics of a periodic population model with dispersal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jin Yu; Zhao Xiaoqiang

    2009-01-01

    This paper is devoted to the study of spatial dynamics of a class of periodic integro-differential equations which describe the population dispersal process via a dispersal kernel. By appealing to the theory of asymptotic speeds of spread and travelling waves for monotonic periodic semiflows, we establish the existence of the spreading speed c * and the nonexistence of continuous periodic travelling wave solutions with wave speed c * . We also prove the existence of left-continuous periodic travelling waves with wave speed c ≥ c * . In the autonomous case, the continuity of monotonic wave profiles with wave speed c ≥ c * is obtained

  13. Space-Time Hybrid Model for Short-Time Travel Speed Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qi Fan

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Short-time traffic speed forecasting is a significant issue for developing Intelligent Transportation Systems applications, and accurate speed forecasting results are necessary inputs for Intelligent Traffic Security Information System (ITSIS and advanced traffic management systems (ATMS. This paper presents a hybrid model for travel speed based on temporal and spatial characteristics analysis and data fusion. This proposed methodology predicts speed by dividing the data into three parts: a periodic trend estimated by Fourier series, a residual part modeled by the ARIMA model, and the possible events affected by upstream or downstream traffic conditions. The aim of this study is to improve the accuracy of the prediction by modeling time and space variation of speed, and the forecast results could simultaneously reflect the periodic variation of traffic speed and emergencies. This information could provide decision-makers with a basis for developing traffic management measures. To achieve the research objective, one year of speed data was collected in Twin Cities Metro, Minnesota. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method can be used to explore the periodic characteristics of speed data and show abilities in increasing the accuracy of travel speed prediction.

  14. Forecasting Labour Productivity Growth in Norway for the Period 2012-2021 Using ARIMA Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pirooz Samavati

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available There appeared to be a change in labour productivity growth in Norway (a fall in the growth rate in the middle of the 2000s, followed by a slight recovery at the end of the period under consideration (1971-2011. The 2007-2009 financial and economic crisis in Norway (which resulted from the banking crisis caused an even greater drop in labour productivity growth to the extent that it in 2008 it reached its lowest point over the last three decades. After 2008, labour productivity growth started to increase. In this paper, in order to forecast time-series labour productivity growth in Norway for the period 2012-2021, the ARIMA model is fitted to Norwegian time-series labour productivity growth data obtained in the period 1971-2011. Using the Box-Jenkins model selection methodology, ARIMA (1, 1, 1 with no constant is selected as an appropriate model. As the selected ARIMA model indicates, labour productivity growth in Norway shall continue to increase very slowly and will ultimately reach a non-zero constant in the forecast period (2012-2021 following its recovery after 2008. Long-term forecasts for time-series labour productivity growth in Norway using ARIMA (1, 1, 1 with no constant will also reach a non-zero constant. Initially, it might be concluded that slow technological development as a result of the 2007-2009 financial and economic crisis could explain the slowdown in the recovery of labour productivity growth both in the forecast period (2012-2021 and over the longer term. However, due to the fact that the 2007-2009 financial and economic crisis has changed the underlying process which Norwegian labour productivity growth rate followed in the immediately preceding period, and that a technological revolution, which can be considered as a contributing factor, also took place in that period, it seems unlikely that a single labour productivity growth time series will be rich enough to describe the variation in the data. From the data and the

  15. LP model for periodic recruitment and retrenchment of manpower in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In this paper we have examined the manpower planning problem in which the maximum total number of employees to be recruited when the organization is in full operation is known. The manpower system has no initial employees at period n=0. The system also allows a periodic recruitment and retrenchment for a finite ...

  16. Short-Term Bus Passenger Demand Prediction Based on Time Series Model and Interactive Multiple Model Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rui Xue

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Although bus passenger demand prediction has attracted increased attention during recent years, limited research has been conducted in the context of short-term passenger demand forecasting. This paper proposes an interactive multiple model (IMM filter algorithm-based model to predict short-term passenger demand. After aggregated in 15 min interval, passenger demand data collected from a busy bus route over four months were used to generate time series. Considering that passenger demand exhibits various characteristics in different time scales, three time series were developed, named weekly, daily, and 15 min time series. After the correlation, periodicity, and stationarity analyses, time series models were constructed. Particularly, the heteroscedasticity of time series was explored to achieve better prediction performance. Finally, IMM filter algorithm was applied to combine individual forecasting models with dynamically predicted passenger demand for next interval. Different error indices were adopted for the analyses of individual and hybrid models. The performance comparison indicates that hybrid model forecasts are superior to individual ones in accuracy. Findings of this study are of theoretical and practical significance in bus scheduling.

  17. Increased food intake and changes in metabolic hormones in response to chronic sleep restriction alternated with short periods of sleep allowance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Barf, R. Paulien; Desprez, Tifany; Meerlo, Peter; Scheurink, Anton J. W.

    2012-01-01

    Barf RP, Desprez T, Meerlo P, Scheurink AJ. Increased food intake and changes in metabolic hormones in response to chronic sleep restriction alternated with short periods of sleep allowance. Am J Physiol Regul Integr Comp Physiol 302: R112-R117, 2012. First published October 19, 2011;

  18. Stress modulation of earthquakes: A study of long and short period stress perturbations and the crustal response

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Christopher W.

    laboratory to explore the causal relationship between low-amplitude stress changes and dynamically triggered events. Interestingly, observations of dynamically triggered M≥5.5 earthquakes are absent in the seismic records [Johnson et al., 2015; Parsons and Velasco, 2011], which invokes questions regarding whether or not large magnitude events can be dynamically triggered. Emerging results in the literature indicate undocumented M≥5.5 events at near to intermediate distances are dynamically triggered during the passage of surface waves but are undetected by automated networks [Fan and Shearer, 2016]. This raises new questions about the amplitude and duration of dynamic stressing for large magnitude events. I used 35-years of global seismicity and find that large event rate increases only occur following a delay from the transient load, suggesting aseismic processes are associated with large magnitude triggered events. To extend this finding I investigated three cases of large magnitude delayed dynamic triggering following the M8.6 2012 Indian Ocean earthquake [Pollitz et al., 2012] by producing microseismicity catalogs and modeling the transient stresses. The results indicate immediate triggering of microseismic events that hours later culminate into a large magnitude event and support the notion that large magnitude events are triggerable by transient loading, but seismic and aseismic processes (e.g. induced creep or fluid mobilization) are contributing to the nucleation process. Open questions remain concerning the source of a nucleation delay period following a stress perturbation that require both geodetic and seismic observations to constrain the source of delayed dynamic triggering and possibly provide insight into a precursory nucleation phase. Induced seismicity has gained much attention in the past 5 years as earthquake rates in regions of low tectonic strain accumulation accelerate to unprecedented levels [Ellsworth, 2013]. The source of the seismicity is

  19. Multivariate time series modeling of short-term system scale irrigation demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perera, Kushan C.; Western, Andrew W.; George, Biju; Nawarathna, Bandara

    2015-12-01

    Travel time limits the ability of irrigation system operators to react to short-term irrigation demand fluctuations that result from variations in weather, including very hot periods and rainfall events, as well as the various other pressures and opportunities that farmers face. Short-term system-wide irrigation demand forecasts can assist in system operation. Here we developed a multivariate time series (ARMAX) model to forecast irrigation demands with respect to aggregated service points flows (IDCGi, ASP) and off take regulator flows (IDCGi, OTR) based across 5 command areas, which included area covered under four irrigation channels and the study area. These command area specific ARMAX models forecast 1-5 days ahead daily IDCGi, ASP and IDCGi, OTR using the real time flow data recorded at the service points and the uppermost regulators and observed meteorological data collected from automatic weather stations. The model efficiency and the predictive performance were quantified using the root mean squared error (RMSE), Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient (NSE), anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) and mean square skill score (MSSS). During the evaluation period, NSE for IDCGi, ASP and IDCGi, OTR across 5 command areas were ranged 0.98-0.78. These models were capable of generating skillful forecasts (MSSS ⩾ 0.5 and ACC ⩾ 0.6) of IDCGi, ASP and IDCGi, OTR for all 5 lead days and IDCGi, ASP and IDCGi, OTR forecasts were better than using the long term monthly mean irrigation demand. Overall these predictive performance from the ARMAX time series models were higher than almost all the previous studies we are aware. Further, IDCGi, ASP and IDCGi, OTR forecasts have improved the operators' ability to react for near future irrigation demand fluctuations as the developed ARMAX time series models were self-adaptive to reflect the short-term changes in the irrigation demand with respect to various pressures and opportunities that farmers' face, such as

  20. Short-Range Prediction of Monsoon Precipitation by NCMRWF Regional Unified Model with Explicit Convection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mamgain, Ashu; Rajagopal, E. N.; Mitra, A. K.; Webster, S.

    2018-03-01

    There are increasing efforts towards the prediction of high-impact weather systems and understanding of related dynamical and physical processes. High-resolution numerical model simulations can be used directly to model the impact at fine-scale details. Improvement in forecast accuracy can help in disaster management planning and execution. National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) has implemented high-resolution regional unified modeling system with explicit convection embedded within coarser resolution global model with parameterized convection. The models configurations are based on UK Met Office unified seamless modeling system. Recent land use/land cover data (2012-2013) obtained from Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) are also used in model simulations. Results based on short-range forecast of both the global and regional models over India for a month indicate that convection-permitting simulations by the high-resolution regional model is able to reduce the dry bias over southern parts of West Coast and monsoon trough zone with more intense rainfall mainly towards northern parts of monsoon trough zone. Regional model with explicit convection has significantly improved the phase of the diurnal cycle of rainfall as compared to the global model. Results from two monsoon depression cases during study period show substantial improvement in details of rainfall pattern. Many categories in rainfall defined for operational forecast purposes by Indian forecasters are also well represented in case of convection-permitting high-resolution simulations. For the statistics of number of days within a range of rain categories between `No-Rain' and `Heavy Rain', the regional model is outperforming the global model in all the ranges. In the very heavy and extremely heavy categories, the regional simulations show overestimation of rainfall days. Global model with parameterized convection have tendency to overestimate the light rainfall days and

  1. Short-Range Prediction of Monsoon Precipitation by NCMRWF Regional Unified Model with Explicit Convection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mamgain, Ashu; Rajagopal, E. N.; Mitra, A. K.; Webster, S.

    2017-12-01

    There are increasing efforts towards the prediction of high-impact weather systems and understanding of related dynamical and physical processes. High-resolution numerical model simulations can be used directly to model the impact at fine-scale details. Improvement in forecast accuracy can help in disaster management planning and execution. National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) has implemented high-resolution regional unified modeling system with explicit convection embedded within coarser resolution global model with parameterized convection. The models configurations are based on UK Met Office unified seamless modeling system. Recent land use/land cover data (2012-2013) obtained from Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) are also used in model simulations. Results based on short-range forecast of both the global and regional models over India for a month indicate that convection-permitting simulations by the high-resolution regional model is able to reduce the dry bias over southern parts of West Coast and monsoon trough zone with more intense rainfall mainly towards northern parts of monsoon trough zone. Regional model with explicit convection has significantly improved the phase of the diurnal cycle of rainfall as compared to the global model. Results from two monsoon depression cases during study period show substantial improvement in details of rainfall pattern. Many categories in rainfall defined for operational forecast purposes by Indian forecasters are also well represented in case of convection-permitting high-resolution simulations. For the statistics of number of days within a range of rain categories between `No-Rain' and `Heavy Rain', the regional model is outperforming the global model in all the ranges. In the very heavy and extremely heavy categories, the regional simulations show overestimation of rainfall days. Global model with parameterized convection have tendency to overestimate the light rainfall days and

  2. ON THE POSSIBLE EXISTENCE OF SHORT-PERIOD g-MODE INSTABILITIES POWERED BY NUCLEAR-BURNING SHELLS IN POST-ASYMPTOTIC GIANT BRANCH H-DEFICIENT (PG1159-TYPE) STARS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Corsico, A. H.; Althaus, L. G.; Miller Bertolami, M. M.; Gonzalez Perez, J. M.; Kepler, S. O.

    2009-01-01

    We present a pulsational stability analysis of hot post-asymptotic giant branch (AGB) H-deficient pre-white dwarf stars with active He-burning shells. The stellar models employed are state-of-the-art equilibrium structures representative of PG1159 stars derived from the complete evolution of the progenitor stars, through the thermally pulsing AGB phase and born-again episode. On the basis of fully nonadiabatic pulsation computations, we confirmed theoretical evidence for the existence of a separate PG1159 instability strip in the log T eff -log g diagram characterized by short-period g-modes excited by the ε-mechanism. This instability strip partially overlaps the already known GW Vir instability strip of intermediate/long-period g-modes destabilized by the classical κ-mechanism acting on the partial ionization of C and/or O in the envelope of PG1159 stars. We found that PG1159 stars characterized by thick He-rich envelopes and located inside this overlapping region could exhibit both short and intermediate/long periods simultaneously. As a natural application of our results, we study the particular case of VV 47, a pulsating planetary nebula nucleus (PG1159 type) that is particularly interesting because it has been reported to exhibit a rich and complex pulsation spectrum including a series of unusually short pulsation periods. We found that the long periods exhibited by VV 47 can be readily explained by the classical κ-mechanism, while the observed short-period branch below ∼300 s could correspond to modes triggered by the He-burning shell through the ε-mechanism, although more observational work is needed to confirm the reality of these short-period modes. Were the existence of short-period g-modes in this star convincingly confirmed by future observations, VV 47 could be the first known pulsating star in which both the κ-mechanism and the ε-mechanism of mode driving are simultaneously operating.

  3. Periodicity and blowup in a two-species cooperating model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lin, Zhigui; Liu, Jiahong; Pedersen, Michael

    2011-01-01

    for the same system are then given. It is shown that periodic solutions exist if the intra-specific competitions are strong whereas blowup solutions exist under certain conditions if the intra-specific competitions are weak. Numerical simulations and a brief discussion are also presented in the last section....

  4. Development of a megathrust earthquake return period model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaefer, Andreas; Wenzel, Friedemann; Daniell, James

    2017-04-01

    The assessment of megathrust return periods can be considered the most difficult part of seismic hazard assessments, since often both their maximum magnitude as well as their respective return period is ambiguous and has much uncertainty associated with them. Megathrust earthquake events such as the 2004 offshore Sumatra, 2011 in Japan or even 1960 in Chile show that the actual capability of a subduction zone to produce mega earthquakes is often underestimated or simply unknown. In conjunction with the development of a subduction zone parameter database, an assessment method to determine megathrust return periods has been undertaken. This assessment follows the principle of robustness, reducing the amount of external parameters and a priori knowledge for the quantification of megathrust return periods. A new method is proposed, which utilises Gutenberg-Richter estimates in conjunction with tectonic convergence rates and seismic coupling in order to calculate both the return period of strong seismic events and their respective possible maximum magnitudes. It introduces a stochastic procedure comparing the Gutenberg-Richter derived probability of a certain magnitude with the accumulated slip-dependent trigger mechanism. This leads to a truncation of strong magnitudes similar to a general truncated Gutenberg-Richter relationship and a comparison is thus made. The advantage of this new method is that is does not necessarily need a priori information about characteristic or maximum magnitudes, instead deriving it completely from slip accumulation and magnitude frequency of low and moderate-seismic events. This method has been applied to the majority of global subduction zones and compared to the historic and paleo-seismic observations within each of these zones.

  5. Isotope-periodic multilayer method for short self-diffusion paths - a comparative neutron and synchrotron Moessbauer reflectometric study of FePd alloys

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Merkel, D G; Sajti, S; Fetzer, C; Tancziko, F; Bottyan, L [KFKI Research Institute for Particle and Nuclear Physics, P.O.B 49, H-1525, Budapest (Hungary); Major, J; Major, M; Ruehm, A [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Metallforschung, Heisenbergstr. 3, D-70569 Stuttgart (Germany); Rueffer, R; Stankov, S, E-mail: merkel@rmki.kfki.h [European Synchrotron Radiation Facility, BP 220, 38043 Grenoble CEDEX 9 (France)

    2010-02-01

    FePt, FePd, CoPt, and CoPd in equilibrium exhibit the L1{sub 0} structure with high perpendicular magnetic anisotropy making them attractive candidates for high-density magnetic recording. Magnetic properties of these films depend on the distribution and orientation of the L1{sub 0} fraction controlled by diffusion on atomic scale. Epitaxial isotope-periodic {sup nat}FePd/{sup 57}FePd alloy films were prepared by molecular beam epitaxy and heat treated at 500{sup 0}C for various retention times. Isotope-sensitive non-destructive methods, neutron reflectometry and synchrotron Moessbauer reflectometry were applied to follow very short diffusion paths normal to the film plane. Squared diffusion lengths and diffusion profiles were obtained from the fitting of experimental reflectivity curves for each annealing treatment steps. The somewhat different diffusion lengths obtained for the neutron and synchrotronMoessbauer reflectograms of the same samples are explained by the larger footprint of the sample in the neutron experiment for which interface inhomogeneities are to be averaged. Diffusion in the microscopically different local environments were modelled by piecewise constant diffusion coefficients in the regions identified as different species by conversion electron Moessbauer spectroscopy.

  6. Lithium in a short-period tidally locked binary of M67: Implications for stellar evolution, Galactic Lithium evolution, and cosmology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deliyannis, Constantine P.; King, Jeremy R.; Boesgaard, Ann M.; Ryan, Sean G.

    1994-01-01

    In open clusters, late-F stars exhibit a Li maximum (the Li 'peak' region) at lower abundance with age, which could be due either to stellar depletion or Galactic Li enrichment (or some other cause). We have observed a short-period tidally locked binary (SPTLB) on the Li peak region in the old cluster M67 to distinguish between alternatives. SPTLBs which synchronized in the early pre-main sequence would avoid the rotational mixing which, according to Yale models, may be responsible for depleting Li with age in open cluster dwarfs. We find that both components of the M67 SPTLB have a Li abundance lying about a factor of 2 or more above any other M67 single star and about a factor of 3 or more above the mean Li peak region abundance in M67. Our results suggest that the initial Li abundance in M67 is at least as high as approximately 3.0 = 12 + log (N(sub Li)/N(sub H)). Our high M67 SPTLB Li abundance and those in other clusters support the combination of Zahn's tidal circularization and the Yale rotational mixing theories and may indicate that the halo Li plateau (analogous to the cluster Li peak region) abundance has been depleted from a higher primordial value. Implications are discussed.

  7. Periodic states, local effects and coexistence in the BML traffic jam model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linesch, Nicholas J.; D'Souza, Raissa M.

    2008-10-01

    The Biham-Middleton-Levine (BML) model is simple lattice model of traffic flow, self-organization and jamming. Rather than a sharp phase transition between free-flow and jammed, it was recently shown that there is a region where stable intermediate states exist, with details dependent on the aspect ratio of the underlying lattice. Here we investigate square aspect ratios, focusing on the region where random, disordered intermediate (DI) states and conventional global jam (GJ) states coexist, and show that DI states dominate for some densities and timescales. Moreover, we show that periodic intermediate (PI) states can also coexist. PI states converge to periodic limit cycles with short recurrence times and were previously conjectured to arise from idiosyncrasies of relatively prime aspect ratios. The observed coexistence of DI, PI and GJ states shows that global parameters, density together with aspect ratio, are not sufficient to determine the full jamming outcome. We investigate additional features that lead towards jamming and show that a strategic perturbation of a few selected bits can change the nature of the flow, nucleating a global jam.

  8. Modeling short-range stiffness of feline lower hindlimb muscles

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cui, L.; Perreault, E.J.; Maas, H.; Sandercock, T.G.

    2008-01-01

    The short-range stiffness (SRS) of skeletal muscles is a critical property for understanding muscle contributions to limb stability, since it represents a muscle's capacity to resist external perturbations before reflexes or voluntary actions can intervene. A number of studies have demonstrated that

  9. CSI 2264: Characterizing Young Stars In NGC 2264 With Short-Duration Periodic Flux Dips in Their Light Curves

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-04-01

    hoped. Assuming that Teff and v isin uncertainties dom - inate, and that they contribute approximately equally, the isin estimates suggest the true...near periods 3–5 days and eccentricity zero, while less massive planets show no such clustering. Hot gas giants cannot easily grow in situ, as reviewed...stars than would be true for a random orientation of axes. Other authors have concluded that the rotational velocities (v isin and periods) of stars in

  10. Collective periodicity in mean-field models of cooperative behavior

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Collet, F.; Dai Pra, P.; Formentin, Marco

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 22, č. 5 (2015), s. 1461-1482 ISSN 1021-9722 R&D Projects: GA ČR GAP201/12/2613 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Interacting diffusions * Noise-induced periodicity * Homoclinic bifurcation Subject RIV: JC - Computer Hardware ; Software Impact factor: 0.797, year: 2015 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2015/SI/formentin-0444594.pdf

  11. 101 Modelling and Forecasting Periodic Electric Load for a ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    User

    2012-01-24

    Jan 24, 2012 ... Key words: Electric-load, Linear trend, Compound-growth, Cubic model, ... Static state estimation method, the Gaussian Process models, time ... specific variables, the independent and dependent variables. Y is load at a given year X, it states that, Y = a+ bX where a and b can be obtained from equation (1).

  12. Physically-insightful equivalent circuit models for electromagnetic periodic structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mesa, F.; Rodríguez-Berral, R.; Medina, F.

    2018-02-01

    In this presentation it will be discussed how to obtain analytical or quasi-analytical equivalent circuits to deal with periodic structures such as frequency selective surfaces and/or metasurfaces. Both the topology and the values of the involved elements of these circuits are obtained from a basic rationale to solve the corresponding integral equation. This procedure, besides providing a very efficient analysis/design tool, allows for a good physical insight into the operating mechanisms of the structure in contrast with the almost blind numerical scheme of commercial simulators.

  13. Response of Aspergillus niger Inoculated on Tomatoes Exposed to Vapor Phase Mustard Essential Oil for Short or Long Periods and Sensory Evaluation of Treated Tomatoes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Elena Aguilar-González

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The inhibitory effect of mustard essential oil (EO in vapor phase against Aspergillus niger was evaluated in vitro and in vivo (in tomatoes. Mold response in tomatoes exposed for short or long periods to selected concentrations of mustard EO was also evaluated. Furthermore, a sensory evaluation was also performed among treated tomatoes and compared with nontreated ones. Minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC for the studied EO was determined by the inverted Petri dish method. MIC for the in vitro and in vivo tests for mustard EO was of 3.08 μL/Lair. In vitro and in vivo results demonstrate the effectiveness of vapors of mustard EO against A. niger. The studied EO contains highly volatile organic compounds with strong inhibitory effects, even when applied for short periods, and can consequently be considered a good alternative to traditional synthetic antimicrobials without detriment of selected sensory attributes.

  14. Optical and structural properties of InGaN/GaN short-period superlattices for the active region of light- emitting diodes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kryzhanovskaya, N. V.; Lundin, W. V.; Nikolaev, A. E.; Tsatsul'nikov, A. F.; Sakharov, A. V.; Pavlov, M. M.; Cherkachin, N. A.; Hytch, M. J.; Valkovsky, G. A.; Yagovkina, M. A.; Usov, S. O.

    2010-01-01

    The results of the study of structural and optical properties of short-period InGaN/GaN superlattices synthesized by MOCVD on sapphire substrates are presented. To form the superlattices, the method of periodic interruption of the growth of the InGaN layer with hydrogen supply into the reactor was used. It is shown that, with the use of the suggested method, an InGaN/GaN periodic structure with the developed interfaces and regions of joining the neighboring InGaN layers not correlated in a vertical direction is formed. The formation of such regions leads to a heavy dependence of the shape of the emission spectra of the super-lattices on the number of periods in the range of 400-470 nm.

  15. Dynamic Hybrid Model for Short-Term Electricity Price Forecasting

    OpenAIRE

    Marin Cerjan; Marin Matijaš; Marko Delimar

    2014-01-01

    Accurate forecasting tools are essential in the operation of electric power systems, especially in deregulated electricity markets. Electricity price forecasting is necessary for all market participants to optimize their portfolios. In this paper we propose a hybrid method approach for short-term hourly electricity price forecasting. The paper combines statistical techniques for pre-processing of data and a multi-layer (MLP) neural network for forecasting electricity price and price spike det...

  16. Short-run and Current Analysis Model in Statistics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Constantin Anghelache

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Using the short-run statistic indicators is a compulsory requirement implied in the current analysis. Therefore, there is a system of EUROSTAT indicators on short run which has been set up in this respect, being recommended for utilization by the member-countries. On the basis of these indicators, there are regular, usually monthly, analysis being achieved in respect of: the production dynamic determination; the evaluation of the short-run investment volume; the development of the turnover; the wage evolution: the employment; the price indexes and the consumer price index (inflation; the volume of exports and imports and the extent to which the imports are covered by the exports and the sold of trade balance. The EUROSTAT system of indicators of conjuncture is conceived as an open system, so that it can be, at any moment extended or restricted, allowing indicators to be amended or even removed, depending on the domestic users requirements as well as on the specific requirements of the harmonization and integration. For the short-run analysis, there is also the World Bank system of indicators of conjuncture, which is utilized, relying on the data sources offered by the World Bank, The World Institute for Resources or other international organizations statistics. The system comprises indicators of the social and economic development and focuses on the indicators for the following three fields: human resources, environment and economic performances. At the end of the paper, there is a case study on the situation of Romania, for which we used all these indicators.

  17. Short communication: Effect of heat stress on markers of autophagy in the mammary gland during the dry period.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wohlgemuth, S E; Ramirez-Lee, Y; Tao, S; Monteiro, A P A; Ahmed, B M; Dahl, G E

    2016-06-01

    Heat stress (HT) during the dry period compromises mammary gland (MG) growth, thus negatively affecting subsequent milk yield. Cooling during the late dry period, when mammary tissue proliferates, is a common management practice. However, it neglects MG involution during the early dry period, a process that is accomplished by both apoptosis and autophagy. Our objective was to evaluate the effect of HT on MG autophagy during the early dry period. Holstein cows were dried off ~45d before expected calving and randomly assigned to 1 of 2 treatments: HT or cooling (CL). All cows were housed in the same free stall barn during the dry period, but only the stall area for CL cows was equipped with soakers and fans. Rectal temperature and respiration rate were measured daily during the dry period. Mammary gland biopsies were collected from each cow 3d before dry-off and on d 3, 7, 14, and 22±2 after dry-off. Autophagy in the MG was determined by measuring protein expression of 2 autophagic markers, autophagy-related protein 7 and microtubule-associated protein light chain 3 (LC3). The average temperature-humidity index during the dry period was 77.7, which indicated that HT and CL cows were exposed to significant heat stress. However, the cooling system effectively alleviated heat strain in CL cows by decreasing the rectal temperature (39.0 vs. 39.4°C) and respiration rate (47.3 vs. 71.2 breaths per minute) relative to HT cows. Protein expression of autophagy-related protein 7, a marker for early autophagosome formation, did not change within or between groups. In contrast, protein expression of LC3-II, a marker of autophagosomes, and its precursor LC3-I showed a dynamic expression pattern in MG from CL cows during the early dry period. Relative to HT cows, MG from CL cows displayed higher expression of LC3-I and LC3-II on d 7 and lower expression of LC3-II on d 14 and 22 after dry-off. Collectively, our data provide a possible mechanistic explanation for the impairment of

  18. Model of evaluating the projected payback period in energy preservation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gorshkov Aleksandr Sergeevich

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Providing energy efficiency of newly designed buildings is an important state task which is considered in EPBD directive and the latest regulations on energy saving. Though reducing energy consumption of the existing building is not less important. The majority of the existing buildings had been built before the implementation of modern energy saving programs. That’s why the volume of energy consumption in the existing buildings is greater than in new buildings. In frames of the given investigation the author considers the problem of forecasting the payback period of investment into reduction of energy consumption in a building. The formula is offered for calculating the projected payback period in energy saving with account for capital costs, calculated or actual value of the achieved energy saving effect, rise in tariffs for energy sources, discounting of the future cash flows and the volume and time for return of credit funds. Basing on the offered calculation methods it is possible to compare the efficiency of different energy saving solutions.

  19. ENSEMBLE ANALYSIS OF OPEN CLUSTER TRANSIT SURVEYS: UPPER LIMITS ON THE FREQUENCY OF SHORT-PERIOD PLANETS CONSISTENT WITH THE FIELD

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Saders, Jennifer L.; Gaudi, B. Scott

    2011-01-01

    Several photometric surveys for short-period transiting giant planets have targeted a number of open clusters, but no convincing detections have been reported. Although each individual survey typically targeted an insufficient number of stars to expect a detection assuming the frequency of short-period giant planets found in surveys of field stars, we ask whether the lack of detections from the ensemble of open cluster surveys is inconsistent with expectations from the field planet population. We select a subset of existing transit surveys with well-defined selection criteria and quantified detection efficiencies, and statistically combine their null results to show that the upper limits on the planet fraction are 5.5% and 1.4% for 1.0 R J and 1.5 R J planets, respectively, in the 3 J and 1.5 R J , respectively. Comparing these results to the frequency of short-period giant planets around field stars in both radial velocity and transit surveys, we conclude that there is no evidence to suggest that open clusters support a fundamentally different planet population than field stars, given the available data.

  20. Assessing multiscale complexity of short heart rate variability series through a model-based linear approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porta, Alberto; Bari, Vlasta; Ranuzzi, Giovanni; De Maria, Beatrice; Baselli, Giuseppe

    2017-09-01

    We propose a multiscale complexity (MSC) method assessing irregularity in assigned frequency bands and being appropriate for analyzing the short time series. It is grounded on the identification of the coefficients of an autoregressive model, on the computation of the mean position of the poles generating the components of the power spectral density in an assigned frequency band, and on the assessment of its distance from the unit circle in the complex plane. The MSC method was tested on simulations and applied to the short heart period (HP) variability series recorded during graded head-up tilt in 17 subjects (age from 21 to 54 years, median = 28 years, 7 females) and during paced breathing protocols in 19 subjects (age from 27 to 35 years, median = 31 years, 11 females) to assess the contribution of time scales typical of the cardiac autonomic control, namely in low frequency (LF, from 0.04 to 0.15 Hz) and high frequency (HF, from 0.15 to 0.5 Hz) bands to the complexity of the cardiac regulation. The proposed MSC technique was compared to a traditional model-free multiscale method grounded on information theory, i.e., multiscale entropy (MSE). The approach suggests that the reduction of HP variability complexity observed during graded head-up tilt is due to a regularization of the HP fluctuations in LF band via a possible intervention of sympathetic control and the decrement of HP variability complexity observed during slow breathing is the result of the regularization of the HP variations in both LF and HF bands, thus implying the action of physiological mechanisms working at time scales even different from that of respiration. MSE did not distinguish experimental conditions at time scales larger than 1. Over a short time series MSC allows a more insightful association between cardiac control complexity and physiological mechanisms modulating cardiac rhythm compared to a more traditional tool such as MSE.

  1. CoRoT 105906206: a short-period and totally eclipsing binary with a δ Scuti type pulsator

    Science.gov (United States)

    da Silva, R.; Maceroni, C.; Gandolfi, D.; Lehmann, H.; Hatzes, A. P.

    2014-05-01

    Aims: Eclipsing binary systems with pulsating components allow determination of several physical parameters of the stars, such as mass and radius, that can be used to constrain the modeling of stellar interiors and evolution when combined with the pulsation properties. We present the results of the study of CoRoT 105906206, an eclipsing binary system with a pulsating component located in the CoRoT LRc02 field. Methods: The analysis of the CoRoT light curve was complemented by high-resolution spectra from the Sandiford at McDonald Observatory and FEROS at ESO spectrographs, which revealed a double-lined spectroscopic binary. We used an iterative procedure to separate the pulsation-induced photometric variations from the eclipse signals. First, a Fourier analysis was used to identify the significant frequencies and amplitudes due to pulsations. Second, after removing the contribution of the pulsations from the light curve we applied the PIKAIA genetic-algorithm approach to derive the best parameters for describing the system orbital properties. Results: The light curve cleaned for pulsations contains the partial eclipse of the primary and the total eclipse of the secondary. The system has an orbital period of about 3.694 days and is formed by a primary star with mass M1 = 2.25 ± 0.04 M⊙, radius R1 = 4.24±0.02 R⊙, and effective temperature Teff,1 = 6750 ± 150 K, and a secondary with M2 = 1.29 ± 0.03 M⊙, R2 = 1.34±0.01 R⊙, and Teff,2 = 6152 ± 162 K. The best solution for the parameters was obtained by taking into account the asymmetric modulation observed in the light curve, known as the O'Connell effect, presumably caused by Doppler beaming. The analysis of the Fourier spectrum revealed that the primary component has p-mode pulsations in the range 5-13 d-1, which are typical of δ Scuti type stars. Based on the photometry collected by the CoRoT satellite and on spectroscopy obtained with the Sandiford spectrograph attached at the 2.1-m telescope at Mc

  2. Modelling and Forecasting Periodic Electric Load for a Metropolitan ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In this work, three models are used to analyze the electric load capacity of a fast growing urban city and to estimate its future consumption. Ikorodu, the case-study location is a highly populated city whose energy demand is continuously increasing. The ultimate focus of this study is to establish a basis for the comparison of ...

  3. Modelling and solving an acyclic multi-period timetabling problem

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cangalovic, Mirjana; Schreuder, J.A.M.

    1992-01-01

    In this article case of the class-teacher timetabling problem is described. This case takes into consideration a partial ordering between the topics of the curriculum and special requirements in respect to their daily lectures. The problem is modelled as a discrete lexicographisc optimization

  4. Maternal mortality in Mexico, beyond millennial development objectives: An age-period-cohort model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodríguez-Aguilar, Román

    2018-01-01

    The maternal mortality situation is analyzed in México as an indicator that reflects the social development level of the country and was one of the millennial development objectives. The effect of a maternal death in the related social group has multiplier effects, since it involves family dislocation, economic impact and disruption of the orphans' normal social development. Two perspectives that causes of maternal mortality were analyzed, on one hand, their relationship with social determinants and on the other, factors directly related to the health system. Evidence shows that comparing populations based on group of selected variables according to social conditions and health care access, statistically significant differences prevail according to education and marginalization levels, and access to medical care. In addition, the Age-Period-Cohort model raised, shows significant progress in terms of a downward trend in maternal mortality in a generational level. Those women born before 1980 had a greater probability of maternal death in relation to recent generations, which is a reflection of the improvement in social determinants and in the Health System. The age effect shows a problem in maternal mortality in women under 15 years old, so teen pregnancy is a priority in health and must be addressed in short term. There is no clear evidence of a period effect.

  5. A multi-period distribution network design model under demand uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tabrizi, Babak H.; Razmi, Jafar

    2013-05-01

    Supply chain management is taken into account as an inseparable component in satisfying customers' requirements. This paper deals with the distribution network design (DND) problem which is a critical issue in achieving supply chain accomplishments. A capable DND can guarantee the success of the entire network performance. However, there are many factors that can cause fluctuations in input data determining market treatment, with respect to short-term planning, on the one hand. On the other hand, network performance may be threatened by the changes that take place within practicing periods, with respect to long-term planning. Thus, in order to bring both kinds of changes under control, we considered a new multi-period, multi-commodity, multi-source DND problem in circumstances where the network encounters uncertain demands. The fuzzy logic is applied here as an efficient tool for controlling the potential customers' demand risk. The defuzzifying framework leads the practitioners and decision-makers to interact with the solution procedure continuously. The fuzzy model is then validated by a sensitivity analysis test, and a typical problem is solved in order to illustrate the implementation steps. Finally, the formulation is tested by some different-sized problems to show its total performance.

  6. Investigating of short period gravity waves using multi-beam experiments above Andenes in the polar summer mesopause

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stober, Gunter; Sommer, Svenja; Chau, Jorge L.; Latteck, Ralph

    2014-05-01

    In summer 2013 the Middle Atmosphere Alomar Radar System (MAARSY) conducted a multi-beam scanning experiment using 65 different beam directions. These systematic scanning experiments are analysed with respect to gravity waves with periods from 4 minutes up to 8 hours using polar mesospheric summer echoes (PMSE) as tracer. The gravity waves are investigated by decomposing the wind field into a mean wind and superimposed tidal components (diurnal, semidiurnal and terdiurnal). After subtracting these mean winds and tides we get a residuum wind dominated by the gravity waves with periods shorter than 8 hours. Using this approach we have been able to identified significant wave burst, with amplitudes as high as 50 m/s and 10-20 m/s for the horizontal and vertical wind components, respectively. In addition, we have identified events that indicate the development of KH-instabilities.

  7. MODELLING OF SHORT DURATION RAINFALL (SDR INTENSITY EQUATIONS FOR ERZURUM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Serkan ŞENOCAK

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available The scope of this study is to develop a rainfall intensity-duration-frequency (IDF equation for some return periods at Erzurum rainfall station. The maximum annual rainfall values for 5, 10, 15, 30 and 60 minutes are statistically analyzed for the period 1956 – 2004 by using some statistical distributions such as the Generalized Extreme Values (GEV, Gumbel, Normal, Two-parameter Lognormal, Three-parameter Lognormal, Gamma, Pearson type III and Log-Pearson type III distributions. ?2 goodness-of-fit test was used to choose the best statistical distribution among all distributions. IDF equation constants and coefficients of correlation (R for each emprical functions are calculated using nonlinear estimation method for each return periods (T = 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 75 and 100 years. The most suitable IDF equation is observed that ( B max i (t = A/ t + C , except for T=100 years, because of the highest coefficients of correlation.

  8. An artificial neural network model for periodic trajectory generation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shankar, S.; Gander, R. E.; Wood, H. C.

    A neural network model based on biological systems was developed for potential robotic application. The model consists of three interconnected layers of artificial neurons or units: an input layer subdivided into state and plan units, an output layer, and a hidden layer between the two outer layers which serves to implement nonlinear mappings between the input and output activation vectors. Weighted connections are created between the three layers, and learning is effected by modifying these weights. Feedback connections between the output and the input state serve to make the network operate as a finite state machine. The activation vector of the plan units of the input layer emulates the supraspinal commands in biological central pattern generators in that different plan activation vectors correspond to different sequences or trajectories being recalled, even with different frequencies. Three trajectories were chosen for implementation, and learning was accomplished in 10,000 trials. The fault tolerant behavior, adaptiveness, and phase maintenance of the implemented network are discussed.

  9. Bayesian log-periodic model for financial crashes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodríguez-Caballero, Carlos Vladimir; Knapik, Oskar

    2014-10-01

    This paper introduces a Bayesian approach in econophysics literature about financial bubbles in order to estimate the most probable time for a financial crash to occur. To this end, we propose using noninformative prior distributions to obtain posterior distributions. Since these distributions cannot be performed analytically, we develop a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm to draw from posterior distributions. We consider three Bayesian models that involve normal and Student's t-distributions in the disturbances and an AR(1)-GARCH(1,1) structure only within the first case. In the empirical part of the study, we analyze a well-known example of financial bubble - the S&P 500 1987 crash - to show the usefulness of the three methods under consideration and crashes of Merval-94, Bovespa-97, IPCMX-94, Hang Seng-97 using the simplest method. The novelty of this research is that the Bayesian models provide 95% credible intervals for the estimated crash time.

  10. THE ACS LCID PROJECT. I. SHORT-PERIOD VARIABLES IN THE ISOLATED DWARF SPHEROIDAL GALAXIES CETUS AND TUCANA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bernard, Edouard J.; Monelli, Matteo; Gallart, Carme

    2009-01-01

    We present the first study of the variable star populations in the isolated dwarf spheroidal galaxies (dSphs) Cetus and Tucana. Based on Hubble Space Telescope images obtained with the Advanced Camera for Surveys in the F475W and F814W bands, we identified 180 and 371 variables in Cetus and Tucana, respectively. The vast majority are RR Lyrae stars. In Cetus, we also found three anomalous Cepheids (ACs), four candidate binaries and one candidate long-period variable (LPV), while six ACs and seven LPV candidates were found in Tucana. Of the RR Lyrae stars, 147 were identified as fundamental mode (RRab) and only eight as first-overtone mode (RRc) in Cetus, with mean periods of 0.614 and 0.363 day, respectively. In Tucana, we found 216 RRab and 82 RRc giving mean periods of 0.604 and 0.353 day. These values place both galaxies in the so-called Oosterhoff Gap, as is generally the case for dSph. We calculated the distance modulus to both galaxies using different approaches based on the properties of RRab and RRc, namely, the luminosity-metallicity and period-luminosity-metallicity relations, and found values in excellent agreement with previous estimates using independent methods: (m - M) 0,Cet = 24.46 ± 0.12 and (m - M) 0,Tuc = 24.74 ± 0.12, corresponding to 780 ± 40 kpc and 890 ± 50 kpc. We also found numerous RR Lyrae variables pulsating in both modes simultaneously (RRd): 17 in Cetus and 60 in Tucana. Tucana is, after Fornax, the second dSph in which such a large fraction of RRd (∼17%) has been observed. We provide the photometry and pulsation parameters for all the variables, and compare the latter with values from the literature for well studied dSph of the Local Group and Galactic globular clusters. The parallel WFPC2 fields were also searched for variables, as they lie well within the tidal radius of Cetus, and at its limit in the case of Tucana. No variables were found in the latter, while 15 were discovered in the outer field of Cetus (11 RRab, three RRc

  11. A fuzzy inference model for short-term load forecasting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mamlook, Rustum; Badran, Omar; Abdulhadi, Emad

    2009-01-01

    This paper is concerned with the short-term load forecasting (STLF) in power system operations. It provides load prediction for generation scheduling and unit commitment decisions, and therefore precise load forecasting plays an important role in reducing the generation cost and the spinning reserve capacity. Short-term electricity demand forecasting (i.e., the prediction of hourly loads (demand)) is one of the most important tools by which an electric utility/company plans, dispatches the loading of generating units in order to meet system demand. The accuracy of the dispatching system, which is derived from the accuracy of the forecasting algorithm used, will determine the economics of the operation of the power system. The inaccuracy or large error in the forecast simply means that load matching is not optimized and consequently the generation and transmission systems are not being operated in an efficient manner. In the present study, a proposed methodology has been introduced to decrease the forecasted error and the processing time by using fuzzy logic controller on an hourly base. Therefore, it predicts the effect of different conditional parameters (i.e., weather, time, historical data, and random disturbances) on load forecasting in terms of fuzzy sets during the generation process. These parameters are chosen with respect to their priority and importance. The forecasted values obtained by fuzzy method were compared with the conventionally forecasted ones. The results showed that the STLF of the fuzzy implementation have more accuracy and better outcomes

  12. Fatigue behavior and modeling of short fiber reinforced polymer composites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mortazavian, Seyyedvahid

    This study investigates uniaxial fatigue behavior of two short glass fiber polymer composites including 30 wt% short glass fiber polybutylene terephthalate (PBT) and 35 wt% short glass fiber polyamide-6 (PA6) under a number of load and environmental conditions. The main objectives are to evaluate the behavior of these materials under monotonic and cyclic loadings and present fatigue life prediction methodologies to reduce their development expenses and time. The considered environmental effects include those of low and elevated temperatures as well as moisture (or water absorption) effect. Fatigue behavior is also explored under the action of nonzero mean stress (or R ratio) as well as various cyclic loading frequencies. Material anisotropy and geometrical discontinuity effects (i.e. stress concentration) are also considered in this study. Microscopic failure analysis is also performed, when necessary, to identify failure mechanisms. Tensile tests were performed in various mold flow directions and with two thicknesses at a range of temperatures and strain rates. A shell-core morphology resulting from orientation distribution of fibers influenced the degree of anisotropy. Tensile strength and elastic modulus nonlinearly decreased with specimen angle and Tsai-Hill criterion was found to correlate variation of these properties with the fiber orientation. Kinetics of water absorption was studied and found to follow the Fick's law. Tensile tests were performed at room temperature with specimens in the longitudinal and transverse directions and with various degrees of water absorption. Mathematical relations were developed to represent tensile properties as a function of water content. Mathematical relationships were developed to represent the stress-strain response, as well as tensile properties in terms of strain rate and temperature. Time-temperature superposition principle was also employed to superimpose the effect of temperature and strain rate on tensile strength

  13. Clusters of DNA induced by ionizing radiation: formation of short DNA fragments. I. Theoretical modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holley, W. R.; Chatterjee, A.

    1996-01-01

    We have developed a general theoretical model for the interaction of ionizing radiation with chromatin. Chromatin is modeled as a 30-nm-diameter solenoidal fiber comprised of 20 turns of nucleosomes, 6 nucleosomes per turn. Charged-particle tracks are modeled by partitioning the energy deposition between primary track core, resulting from glancing collisions with 100 eV or less per event, and delta rays due to knock-on collisions involving energy transfers >100 eV. A Monte Carlo simulation incorporates damages due to the following molecular mechanisms: (1) ionization of water molecules leading to the formation of OH, H, eaq, etc.; (2) OH attack on sugar molecules leading to strand breaks: (3) OH attack on bases; (4) direct ionization of the sugar molecules leading to strand breaks; (5) direct ionization of the bases. Our calculations predict significant clustering of damage both locally, over regions up to 40 bp and over regions extending to several kilobase pairs. A characteristic feature of the regional damage predicted by our model is the production of short fragments of DNA associated with multiple nearby strand breaks. The shapes of the spectra of DNA fragment lengths depend on the symmetries or approximate symmetries of the chromatin structure. Such fragments have subsequently been detected experimentally and are reported in an accompanying paper (B. Rydberg, Radiat, Res. 145, 200-209, 1996) after exposure to both high- and low-LET radiation. The overall measured yields agree well quantitatively with the theoretical predictions. Our theoretical results predict the existence of a strong peak at about 85 bp, which represents the revolution period about the nucleosome. Other peaks at multiples of about 1,000 bp correspond to the periodicity of the particular solenoid model of chromatin used in these calculations. Theoretical results in combination with experimental data on fragmentation spectra may help determine the consensus or average structure of the

  14. Effects of different feeding levels during three short periods of gestation on gilt and litter performance, nutrient digestibility, and energy homeostasis in gilts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ren, P; Yang, X J; Cui, S Q; Kim, J S; Menon, D; Baidoo, S K

    2017-03-01

    The present study investigated the effects of different feeding levels during 3 short periods of gestation on gilt and litter performance, apparent total tract digestibility (ATTD) of energy and nutrients, and energy homeostasis in gilts. A total of 18 gilts were allotted to 1 of 3 dietary treatments using a completely randomized design. All gilts were fed 1 common corn-soybean meal-based diet with the amount of 1.0 × maintenance energy intake (100 × BW (BW) kcal ME/d) throughout gestation except 3 periods of 7 d when dietary treatments were imposed on d 27, d 55, and d 83 of gestation. During the 3 short periods, gilts were fed 1 of 3 different feeding levels: 0.5, 1.0, and 2.0 × maintenance energy level (0.5M, 1.0M, and 2.0M, respectively). Results showed that gilts on 2.0M feeding level had higher ( gilts on 0.5M feeding level. No differences ( > 0.10) in litter performance were observed among the 3 feeding levels. Additionally, the slopes of BW change in response to feeding levels in period 1 were 4.32 kg/0.5M change from 0.5M to 1.0M feeding level and 3.72 kg/0.5M change from 1.0M to 2.0M feeding level, respectively. There were quadratic ( gilts on 0.5M feeding level than those on 2.0M feeding level. In conclusion, increasing feeding levels during 3 short periods increased primiparous sow performance during these short periods but did not affect litter performance. ATTD of energy and nutrients, and BW change efficiency were maximized for gilts on 1.0 M feeding level. The data also indicated that sows on the lowest feeding level were exposed to negative energy balance as evidenced by the higher plasma acyl ghrelin and NEFA concentrations.

  15. Short communication: fused deposition models from CT scans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meakin, J R; Shepherd, D E T; Hukins, D W L

    2004-06-01

    Fused deposition modelling (FDM) is a new method for rapid prototyping, a technique that produces models of objects from computer files. The most commonly used rapid prototyping technique for medical applications is stereolithography, but FDM has several potential advantages. This paper is concerned with the accuracy of an FDM model of a sheep lumbar vertebra using data from a CT scan. The model and the original vertebra were compared by making measurements with vernier callipers and by laser scanning. Visually, the model reproduced the features of the original object; this conclusion was supported by a comparison of the laser scans. Discrepancies in measurements were comparable with those of models produced using other rapid prototyping techniques, demonstrating that FDM is a viable method for making models for clinical use.

  16. Short period La/B and LaN/B multilayer mirrors for ~6.8 nm wavelength.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Makhotkin, Igor A; Zoethout, Erwin; van de Kruijs, Robbert; Yakunin, Sergey N; Louis, Eric; Yakunin, A M; Banine, V; Müllender, S; Bijkerk, Fred

    2013-12-02

    In the first part of this article we experimentally show that contrast between the very thin layers of La and B enables close to theoretical reflectance. The reflectivity at 6.8 nm wavelength was measured from La/B multilayer mirrors with period thicknesses ranging from 3.5 to 7.2 nm at the appropriate angle for constructive interference. The difference between the measured reflectance and the reflectance calculated for a perfect multilayer structure decreases with increasing multilayer period. The reflectance of the multilayer with the largest period approaches the theoretical value, showing that the optical contrast between the very thin layers of these structures allows to experimentally access close to theoretical reflectance. In the second part of the article we discuss the structure of La/B and LaN/B multilayers. This set of multilayers is probed by hard X-rays (λ = 0.154 nm) and EUV radiation (λ = 6.8 nm). The structure is reconstructed based on a simultaneous fit of the grazing incidence hard X-ray reflectivity and the EUV reflectivity curves. The reflectivity analysis of the La/B and LaN/B multilayer mirrors shows that the lower reflectance of La/B mirrors compared to LaN/B mirrors can be explained by the presence of 5% of La atoms in the B layer and 63% of B in La layer. After multi-parametrical optimization of the LaN/B system, including the nitridation of La, the highest near normal incidence reflectivity of 57.3% at 6.6 nm wavelength has been measured from a multilayer mirror, containing 175 bi-layers. This is the highest value reported so far.

  17. SgrbWorldModel: Short-duration Gamma-Ray Burst World Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shahmoradi, Amir; Nemiroff, Robert J.

    2017-12-01

    SgrbWorldModel, written in Fortran 90, presents an attempt at modeling the population distribution of the Short-duration class of Gamma-Ray Bursts (SGRBs) as detected by the NASA's now-defunct Burst And Transient Source Experiment (BATSE) onboard the Compton Gamma Ray Observatory (CGRO). It is assumed that the population distribution of SGRBs is well fit by a multivariate log-normal distribution, whose differential cosmological rate of occurrence follows the Star-Formation-Rate (SFR) convolved with a log-normal binary-merger delay-time distribution. The best-fit parameters of the model are then found by maximizing the likelihood of the observed data by the BATSE detectors via a native built-in Adaptive Metropolis-Hastings Markov-Chain Monte Carlo (AMH-MCMC)Sampler that is part of the code. A model for the detection algorithm of the BATSE detectors is also provided.

  18. Short communication: Maternal heat stress during the dry period alters postnatal whole-body insulin response of calves.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tao, S; Monteiro, A P A; Hayen, M J; Dahl, G E

    2014-02-01

    Heat stress during the dry period not only negatively affects a cow's performance but also affects her offspring. Previous studies indicate that calves born to cows heat-stressed during late gestation have lower birth weight but similar overall weight gain during the prepubertal period compared with those cooled in utero. However, it is unclear if whole-body insulin response, and thus metabolism, of calves is altered in their postnatal life after in utero heat stress. The aim of the present study was to examine the effects of maternal heat stress during the dry period on whole-body insulin response of calves after weaning. Calves (10/treatment) were born to cows exposed to heat stress (HT) or cooling (CL) when dry. Calves were immediately separated from their dams and fed 3.8L of high-quality colostrum within 1h after birth and then 1.9L 12h later. All calves were fed 1.9 to 3.8L of pasteurized milk in the morning and afternoon from 2 to 42 d of age and then only in the morning until weaning at 49 d. Calf starter and water were offered ad libitum starting at 2 d of age. All calves were managed in the same manner throughout the study. All calves were subjected to a glucose tolerance test (GTT) and an insulin challenge (IC) at 55 d of age. Calves heat-stressed in utero were born lighter (40 ± 1.4 vs. 45 ± 1.4 kg) compared with CL calves. Both groups of calves had similar weaning weights (HT: 68 ± 3.2 kg; CL: 71 ± 3.3 kg) and body weight gain from birth to weaning (HT: 28 ± 2.2 kg; CL: 26 ± 2.3 kg). Compared with those cooled in utero, HT calves had a similar insulin response to GTT and insulin clearance during IC but faster glucose clearance during GTT and IC. In conclusion, in addition to impaired fetal growth, maternal heat stress during the dry period enhances the whole-body insulin response of calves after weaning, which suggests the possibility of accelerated lipogenesis and fat deposition in early life. Copyright © 2014 American Dairy Science Association

  19. Short-period strain (0.1-105 s): Near-source strain field for an earthquake (M L 3.2) near San Juan Bautista, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnston, M. J. S.; Borcherdt, R. D.; Linde, A. T.

    1986-10-01

    Measurements of dilational earth strain in the frequency band 25-10-5 Hz have been made on a deep borehole strainmeter installed near the San Andreas fault. These data are used to determine seismic radiation fields during nuclear explosions, teleseisms, local earthquakes, and ground noise during seismically quiet times. Strains of less than 10-10 on these instruments can be clearly resolved at short periods (< 10 s) and are recorded with wide dynamic range digital recorders. This permits measurement of the static and dynamic strain variations in the near field of local earthquakes. Noise spectra for earth strain referenced to 1 (strain)2/Hz show that strain resolution decreases at about 10 dB per decade of frequency from -150 dB at 10-4 Hz to -223 dB at 10 Hz. Exact expressions are derived to relate the volumetric strain and displacement field for a homogeneous P wave in a general viscoelastic solid as observed on colocated dilatometers and seismometers. A rare near-field recording of strain and seismic velocity was obtained on May 26, 1984, from an earthquake (ML 3.2) at a hypocentral distance of 3.2 km near the San Andreas fault at San Juan Bautista, California. While the data indicate no precursory strain release at the 5 × 10-11 strain level, a coseismic strain release of 1.86 nanostrain was observed. This change in strain is consistent with that calculated from a simple dislocation model of the event. Ground displacement spectra, determined from the downhole strain data and instrument-corrected surface seismic data, suggest that source parameters estimated from surface recordings may be contaminated by amplification effects in near-surface low-velocity materials.

  20. Short-term estimation of GNSS TEC using a neural network model in Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferreira, Arthur Amaral; Borges, Renato Alves; Paparini, Claudia; Ciraolo, Luigi; Radicella, Sandro M.

    2017-10-01

    This work presents a novel Neural Network (NN) model to estimate Total Electron Content (TEC) from Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) measurements in three distinct sectors in Brazil. The purpose of this work is to start the investigations on the development of a regional model that can be used to determine the vertical TEC over Brazil, aiming future applications on a near real-time frame estimations and short-term forecasting. The NN is used to estimate the GNSS TEC values at void locations, where no dual-frequency GNSS receiver that may be used as a source of data to GNSS TEC estimation is available. This approach is particularly useful for GNSS single-frequency users that rely on corrections of ionospheric range errors by TEC models. GNSS data from the first GLONASS network for research and development (GLONASS R&D network) installed in Latin America, and from the Brazilian Network for Continuous Monitoring of the GNSS (RMBC) were used on TEC calibration. The input parameters of the NN model are based on features known to influence TEC values, such as geographic location of the GNSS receiver, magnetic activity, seasonal and diurnal variations, and solar activity. Data from two ten-days periods (from DoY 154 to 163 and from 282 to 291) are used to train the network. Three distinct analyses have been carried out in order to assess time-varying and spatial performance of the model. At the spatial performance analysis, for each region, a set of stations is chosen to provide training data to the NN, and after the training procedure, the NN is used to estimate vTEC behavior for the test station which data were not presented to the NN in training process. An analysis is done by comparing, for each testing station, the estimated NN vTEC delivered by the NN and reference calibrated vTEC. Also, as a second analysis, the network ability to forecast one day after the time interval (DoY 292) based on information of the second period of investigation is also assessed

  1. Bayesian log-periodic model for financial crashes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rodríguez-Caballero, Carlos Vladimir; Knapik, Oskar

    2014-01-01

    This paper introduces a Bayesian approach in econophysics literature about financial bubbles in order to estimate the most probable time for a financial crash to occur. To this end, we propose using noninformative prior distributions to obtain posterior distributions. Since these distributions...... cannot be performed analytically, we develop a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm to draw from posterior distributions. We consider three Bayesian models that involve normal and Student’s t-distributions in the disturbances and an AR(1)-GARCH(1,1) structure only within the first case. In the empirical...... part of the study, we analyze a well-known example of financial bubble – the S&P 500 1987 crash – to show the usefulness of the three methods under consideration and crashes of Merval-94, Bovespa-97, IPCMX-94, Hang Seng-97 using the simplest method. The novelty of this research is that the Bayesian...

  2. A novel TRNSYS type for short-term borehole heat exchanger simulation: B2G model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Rosa, Mattia; Ruiz-Calvo, Félix; Corberán, José M.; Montagud, Carla; Tagliafico, Luca A.

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • A novel dynamic borehole heat exchanger model is presented. • Theoretical approach for model parameters calculation is described. • The short-term model is validated against experimental data of a real GSHP. • Strong dynamic conditions due to the ON–OFF regulation are investigated. - Abstract: Models of ground source heat pump (GSHP) systems are used as an aid for the correct design and optimization of the system. For this purpose, it is necessary to develop models which correctly reproduce the dynamic thermal behavior of each component in a short-term basis. Since the borehole heat exchanger (BHE) is one of the main components, special attention should be paid to ensuring a good accuracy on the prediction of the short-term response of the boreholes. The BHE models found in literature which are suitable for short-term simulations usually present high computational costs. In this work, a novel TRNSYS type implementing a borehole-to-ground (B2G) model, developed for modeling the short-term dynamic performance of a BHE with low computational cost, is presented. The model has been validated against experimental data from a GSHP system located at Universitat Politècnica de València, Spain. Validation results show the ability of the model to reproduce the short-term behavior of the borehole, both for a step-test and under normal operating conditions

  3. Compact attractors for time-periodic age-structured population models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pierre Magal

    2001-10-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we investigate the existence of compact attractors for time-periodic age-structured models. So doing we investigate the eventual compactness of a class of abstract non-autonomous semiflow (non necessarily periodic. We apply this result to non-autonomous age-structured models. In the time periodic case, we obtain the existence of a periodic family of compact subsets that is invariant by the semiflow, and attract the solutions of the system.

  4. A remark on the set of arbitrage-free prices in a multi-period model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ranjan, Abhishek

    2013-01-01

    We study the convexity property of the set QF of arbitrage ‐ free prices of a multi ‐period financial structure F. The set of arbitrage‐free prices is shown to be a convex cone under conditions on the financial structure F that hold in particular for short ‐ lived assets. Furthermore, we provide ...

  5. Periodicity in a intensity dependent Haynes-Cummings model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silva Freitas, Dagoberto da; Roversi, J.A.; Vidiella-Barranco, A.

    1997-01-01

    The Jaynes-Cummings (JCM) is the most simple and fundamental model describing the interaction between electromagnetic field and the matter, where a two-level atom is coupled, under the rotating wave approximation, to a quantized field mode. Recently Matsuo, studying the origin of the Q function partitioning in terms of the field density matrix, has separated the effect of the initial atomic state on the Q function clockwise (Cw), counter-clockwise (Ccw) and non rotating (N R) components. Matsuo shows that the inversion of the atomic state population is directly related to the N R component of the density matrix, and is independent of the clockwise and counter-clockwise components. Using the same procedure, we study the case where the atom-field coupling constant depends on the field intensity. We investigate some basic aspects of the field interaction, initially in coherent state, with a two-level atom. The collapse, revival and purity of the atomic state were analysed together with time evolution of the Q function and her partitioning in clockwise, counterclockwise and non-rotating components

  6. Multi-model prediction of downward short-wave radiation

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Eben, Kryštof; Resler, Jaroslav; Krč, Pavel; Juruš, Pavel; Pelikán, Emil

    2012-01-01

    Roč. 9, - (2012), EMS2012-384 [EMS Annual Meeting /12./ and European Conference on Applied Climatology /9./. 10.09.2012-14.09.2012, Lodz] Institutional support: RVO:67985807 Keywords : multi-model prediction * NWP * model postprocessing Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology

  7. Short note: the experimental geopotential model XGM2016

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pail, R.; Fecher, T.; Barnes, D.; Factor, J. F.; Holmes, S. A.; Gruber, T.; Zingerle, P.

    2018-04-01

    As a precursor study for the upcoming combined Earth Gravitational Model 2020 (EGM2020), the Experimental Gravity Field Model XGM2016, parameterized as a spherical harmonic series up to degree and order 719, is computed. XGM2016 shares the same combination methodology as its predecessor model GOCO05c (Fecher et al. in Surv Geophys 38(3): 571-590, 2017. doi: 10.1007/s10712-016-9406-y). The main difference between these models is that XGM2016 is supported by an improved terrestrial data set of 15^' × 15^' gravity anomaly area-means provided by the United States National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA), resulting in significant upgrades compared to existing combined gravity field models, especially in continental areas such as South America, Africa, parts of Asia, and Antarctica. A combination strategy of relative regional weighting provides for improved performance in near-coastal ocean regions, including regions where the altimetric data are mostly unchanged from previous models. Comparing cumulative height anomalies, from both EGM2008 and XGM2016 at degree/order 719, yields differences of 26 cm in Africa and 40 cm in South America. These differences result from including additional information of satellite data, as well as from the improved ground data in these regions. XGM2016 also yields a smoother Mean Dynamic Topography with significantly reduced artifacts, which indicates an improved modeling of the ocean areas.

  8. Short note: the experimental geopotential model XGM2016

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pail, R.; Fecher, T.; Barnes, D.; Factor, J. F.; Holmes, S. A.; Gruber, T.; Zingerle, P.

    2017-10-01

    As a precursor study for the upcoming combined Earth Gravitational Model 2020 (EGM2020), the Experimental Gravity Field Model XGM2016, parameterized as a spherical harmonic series up to degree and order 719, is computed. XGM2016 shares the same combination methodology as its predecessor model GOCO05c (Fecher et al. in Surv Geophys 38(3): 571-590, 2017. doi: 10.1007/s10712-016-9406-y). The main difference between these models is that XGM2016 is supported by an improved terrestrial data set of 15^' × 15^' gravity anomaly area-means provided by the United States National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA), resulting in significant upgrades compared to existing combined gravity field models, especially in continental areas such as South America, Africa, parts of Asia, and Antarctica. A combination strategy of relative regional weighting provides for improved performance in near-coastal ocean regions, including regions where the altimetric data are mostly unchanged from previous models. Comparing cumulative height anomalies, from both EGM2008 and XGM2016 at degree/order 719, yields differences of 26 cm in Africa and 40 cm in South America. These differences result from including additional information of satellite data, as well as from the improved ground data in these regions. XGM2016 also yields a smoother Mean Dynamic Topography with significantly reduced artifacts, which indicates an improved modeling of the ocean areas.

  9. Beneficial Effect of Short Pretransplant Period of Hypothermic Pulsatile Perfusion of the Warm-Ischemic Kidney after Cold Storage: Experimental Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lázaro, Alberto; Humanes, Blanca; Jado, Juan Carlos; Mojena, Marina; González-Nicolás, María Ángeles; Del Cañizo, Juan Francisco; Tejedor, Alberto; Lledó-García, Enrique

    2016-01-01

    Warm ischemia (WI) produces a significant deleterious effect in potential kidney grafts. Hypothermic machine perfusion (HMP) seems to improve immediate graft function after transplant. Our aim was to analyze the effect of short pretransplant periods of pulsatile HMP on histology and renal injury in warm-ischemic kidneys. Twelve minipigs were used. WI was achieved in the right kidney by applying a vascular clamp for 45 min. After nephrectomy, autotransplant was performed following one of two strategies: cold storage of the kidneys or cold storage combined with perfusion in pulsatile HMP. The graft was removed early to study renal morphology, inflammation (fibrosis), and apoptosis. Proinflammatory activity and fibrosis were less pronounced after cold storage of the kidneys with HMP than after cold storage only. The use of HMP also decreased apoptosis compared with cold storage only. The detrimental effects on cells of an initial and prolonged period of WI seem to improve with a preservation protocol that includes a short period of pulsatile HMP after cold storage and immediately before the transplant, in comparison with cold storage only.

  10. Modelling the short term herding behaviour of stock markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shapira, Yoash; Berman, Yonatan; Ben-Jacob, Eshel

    2014-01-01

    Modelling the behaviour of stock markets has been of major interest in the past century. The market can be treated as a network of many investors reacting in accordance to their group behaviour, as manifested by the index and effected by the flow of external information into the system. Here we devise a model that encapsulates the behaviour of stock markets. The model consists of two terms, demonstrating quantitatively the effect of the individual tendency to follow the group and the effect of the individual reaction to the available information. Using the above factors we were able to explain several key features of the stock market: the high correlations between the individual stocks and the index; the Epps effect; the high fluctuating nature of the market, which is similar to real market behaviour. Furthermore, intricate long term phenomena are also described by this model, such as bursts of synchronized average correlation and the dominance of the index as demonstrated through partial correlation. (paper)

  11. Modelling multimedia teleservices with OSI upper layers framework: Short paper

    Science.gov (United States)

    Widya, I.; Vanrijssen, E.; Michiels, E.

    The paper presents the use of the concepts and modelling principles of the Open Systems Interconnection (OSI) upper layers structure in the modelling of multimedia teleservices. It puts emphasis on the revised Application Layer Structure (OSI/ALS). OSI/ALS is an object based reference model which intends to coordinate the development of application oriented services and protocols in a consistent and modular way. It enables the rapid deployment and integrated use of these services. The paper emphasizes further on the nesting structure defined in OSI/ALS which allows the design of scalable and user tailorable/controllable teleservices. OSI/ALS consistent teleservices are moreover implementable on communication platforms of different capabilities. An analysis of distributed multimedia architectures which can be found in the literature, confirms the ability of the OSI/ALS framework to model the interworking functionalities of teleservices.

  12. Monte Carlo simulation of atomic short range order and cluster formation in two dimensional model alloys

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rojas T, J.; Instituto Peruano de Energia Nuclear, Lima; Manrique C, E.; Torres T, E.

    2002-01-01

    Using monte Carlo simulation have been carried out an atomistic description of the structure and ordering processes in the system Cu-Au in a two-dimensional model. The ABV model of the alloy is a system of N atoms A and B, located in rigid lattice with some vacant sites. In the model we assume pair wise interactions between nearest neighbors with constant ordering energy J = 0,03 eV. The dynamics was introduced by means of a vacancy that exchanges of place with any atom of its neighbors. The simulations were carried out in a square lattice with 1024 and 4096 particles, using periodic boundary conditions to avoid border effects. We calculate the first two parameters of short range order of Warren-Cowley as function of the concentration and temperature. It was also studied the probabilities of formation of different atomic clusters that consist of 9 atoms as function of the concentration of the alloy and temperatures in a wide range of values. In some regions of temperature and concentration it was observed compositional and thermal polymorphism

  13. Detection of Internal Short Circuit in Lithium Ion Battery Using Model-Based Switching Model Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Minhwan Seo

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Early detection of an internal short circuit (ISCr in a Li-ion battery can prevent it from undergoing thermal runaway, and thereby ensure battery safety. In this paper, a model-based switching model method (SMM is proposed to detect the ISCr in the Li-ion battery. The SMM updates the model of the Li-ion battery with ISCr to improve the accuracy of ISCr resistance R I S C f estimates. The open circuit voltage (OCV and the state of charge (SOC are estimated by applying the equivalent circuit model, and by using the recursive least squares algorithm and the relation between OCV and SOC. As a fault index, the R I S C f is estimated from the estimated OCVs and SOCs to detect the ISCr, and used to update the model; this process yields accurate estimates of OCV and R I S C f . Then the next R I S C f is estimated and used to update the model iteratively. Simulation data from a MATLAB/Simulink model and experimental data verify that this algorithm shows high accuracy of R I S C f estimates to detect the ISCr, thereby helping the battery management system to fulfill early detection of the ISCr.

  14. Distributional modeling and short-term forecasting of electricity prices by Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Serinaldi, Francesco

    2011-01-01

    In the context of the liberalized and deregulated electricity markets, price forecasting has become increasingly important for energy company's plans and market strategies. Within the class of the time series models that are used to perform price forecasting, the subclasses of methods based on stochastic time series and causal models commonly provide point forecasts, whereas the corresponding uncertainty is quantified by approximate or simulation-based confidence intervals. Aiming to improve the uncertainty assessment, this study introduces the Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS) to model the dynamically varying distribution of prices. The GAMLSS allow fitting a variety of distributions whose parameters change according to covariates via a number of linear and nonlinear relationships. In this way, price periodicities, trends and abrupt changes characterizing both the position parameter (linked to the expected value of prices), and the scale and shape parameters (related to price volatility, skewness, and kurtosis) can be explicitly incorporated in the model setup. Relying on the past behavior of the prices and exogenous variables, the GAMLSS enable the short-term (one-day ahead) forecast of the entire distribution of prices. The approach was tested on two datasets from the widely studied California Power Exchange (CalPX) market, and the less mature Italian Power Exchange (IPEX). CalPX data allow comparing the GAMLSS forecasting performance with published results obtained by different models. The study points out that the GAMLSS framework can be a flexible alternative to several linear and nonlinear stochastic models. - Research Highlights: ► Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS) are used to model electricity prices' time series. ► GAMLSS provide the entire dynamicaly varying distribution function of prices resorting to a suitable set of covariates that drive the instantaneous values of the parameters

  15. Short-ranged memory model with preferential growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaigorodsky, Ana L.; Perotti, Juan I.; Almeira, Nahuel; Billoni, Orlando V.

    2018-02-01

    In this work we introduce a variant of the Yule-Simon model for preferential growth by incorporating a finite kernel to model the effects of bounded memory. We characterize the properties of the model combining analytical arguments with extensive numerical simulations. In particular, we analyze the lifetime and popularity distributions by mapping the model dynamics to corresponding Markov chains and branching processes, respectively. These distributions follow power laws with well-defined exponents that are within the range of the empirical data reported in ecologies. Interestingly, by varying the innovation rate, this simple out-of-equilibrium model exhibits many of the characteristics of a continuous phase transition and, around the critical point, it generates time series with power-law popularity, lifetime and interevent time distributions, and nontrivial temporal correlations, such as a bursty dynamics in analogy with the activity of solar flares. Our results suggest that an appropriate balance between innovation and oblivion rates could provide an explanatory framework for many of the properties commonly observed in many complex systems.

  16. Analyses of the Short Periodical Part of the Spectrum of Pole Coordinate Variations Determined by the Astrometric and Laser Technique

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kołaczek, B.; Kosek, W.; Galas, R.

    Series of BIH astrometric (BIH-ASTR) pole coordinates and of CSR LAGEOS laser ranging (CSR-LALAR) pole coordinates determined in the MERIT Campaign in the years 1972 - 1986, 1983 - 1986, respectively, have been filtered by different band pass filters consisting of the law pass Gauss filter and of the high pass Butterworth filter. Filtered residuals were analysed by the MESA-Maximum Entropy Spectra Analysis and by the Ormsby narrow band pass filters in order to find numerically modeled signals approximating these residuals in the best way.

  17. The genesis of period-adding bursting without bursting-chaos in the Chay model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang Zhuoqin; Lu Qishao; Li Li

    2006-01-01

    According to the period-adding firing patterns without chaos observed in neuronal experiments, the genesis of the period-adding 'fold/homoclinic' bursting sequence without bursting-chaos is explored by numerical simulation, fast/slow dynamics and bifurcation analysis of limit cycle in the neuronal Chay model. It is found that each periodic bursting, from period-1 to 7, is separately generated by the corresponding periodic spiking pattern through two period-doubling bifurcations, except for the period-1 bursting occurring via a Hopf bifurcation. Consequently, it can be revealed that this period-adding bursting bifurcation without chaos has a compound bifurcation structure with transitions from spiking to bursting, which is closely related to period-doubling bifurcations of periodic spiking in essence

  18. A model to forecast short-term snowmelt runoff using synoptic observations of streamflow, temperature, and precipitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tangborn, Wendell V.

    1980-01-01

    Snowmelt runoff is forecast with a statistical model that utilizes daily values of stream discharge, gaged precipitation, and maximum and minimum observations of air temperature. Synoptic observations of these variables are made at existing low- and medium-altitude weather stations, thus eliminating the difficulties and expense of new, high-altitude installations. Four model development steps are used to demonstrate the influence on prediction accuracy of basin storage, a preforecast test season, air temperature (to estimate ablation), and a prediction based on storage. Daily ablation is determined by a technique that employs both mean temperature and a radiative index. Radiation (both long- and short-wave components) is approximated by using the range in daily temperature, which is shown to be closely related to mean cloud cover. A technique based on the relationship between prediction error and prediction season weather utilizes short-term forecasts of precipitation and temperature to improve the final prediction. Verification of the model is accomplished by a split sampling technique for the 1960–1977 period. Short- term (5–15 days) predictions of runoff throughout the main snowmelt season are demonstrated for mountain drainages in western Washington, south-central Arizona, western Montana, and central California. The coefficient of prediction (Cp) based on actual, short-term predictions for 18 years is for Thunder Creek (Washington), 0.69; for South Fork Flathead River (Montana), 0.45; for the Black River (Arizona), 0.80; and for the Kings River (California), 0.80.

  19. Lithium-Ion Battery Safety Study Using Multi-Physics Internal Short-Circuit Model (Presentation)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, G-.H.; Smith, K.; Pesaran, A.

    2009-06-01

    This presentation outlines NREL's multi-physics simulation study to characterize an internal short by linking and integrating electrochemical cell, electro-thermal, and abuse reaction kinetics models.

  20. Short-channel drain current model for asymmetric heavily / lightly ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    PRADIPTA DUTTA

    2017-07-29

    Jul 29, 2017 ... drive current [1–6]. It also improves the performance of logic [7–9] as well as analog applications [10–12]. Previously, various types of drain current models of DG. MOSFETs have been demonstrated but they are ..... obtained from the electric field at the front and back gates. The smooth variation of the drain ...

  1. Short-Term Forecasting Models for Photovoltaic Plants: Analytical versus Soft-Computing Techniques

    OpenAIRE

    Monteiro, Claudio; Fernandez-Jimenez, L. Alfredo; Ramirez-Rosado, Ignacio J.; Muñoz-Jimenez, Andres; Lara-Santillan, Pedro M.

    2013-01-01

    We present and compare two short-term statistical forecasting models for hourly average electric power production forecasts of photovoltaic (PV) plants: the analytical PV power forecasting model (APVF) and the multiplayer perceptron PV forecasting model (MPVF). Both models use forecasts from numerical weather prediction (NWP) tools at the location of the PV plant as well as the past recorded values of PV hourly electric power production. The APVF model consists of an original modeling for adj...

  2. EDM - A model for optimising the short-term power operation of a complex hydroelectric network

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tremblay, M.; Guillaud, C.

    1996-01-01

    In order to optimize the short-term power operation of a complex hydroelectric network, a new model called EDM was added to PROSPER, a water management analysis system developed by SNC-Lavalin. PROSPER is now divided into three parts: an optimization model (DDDP), a simulation model (ESOLIN), and an economic dispatch model (EDM) for the short-term operation. The operation of the KSEB hydroelectric system (located in southern India) with PROSPER was described. The long-term analysis with monthly time steps is assisted by the DDDP, and the daily analysis with hourly or half-hourly time steps is performed with the EDM model. 3 figs

  3. Influence of the interface on growth rates in AlN/GaN short period superlattices via metal organic vapor phase epitaxy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodak, L. E.; Korakakis, D.

    2011-11-01

    AlN/GaN short period superlattices are well suited for a number of applications including, but not limited to, digital alloys, intersubband devices, and emitters. In this work, AlN/GaN superlattices with periodicities ranging from 10 to 20 Å have been grown via metal organic vapor phase epitaxy in order to investigate the influence of the interface on the binary alloy growth rates. The GaN growth rate at the interface was observed to decrease with increasing GaN thickness while the AlN growth rate remained constant. This has been attributed to a decrease in the decomposition rate of GaN at the hetero-interface as seen in other III-V hetero-structures.

  4. Probing the (empirical quantum structure embedded in the periodic table with an effective Bohr model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wellington Nardin Favaro

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The atomic shell structure can be observed by inspecting the experimental periodic properties of the Periodic Table. The (quantum shell structure emerges from these properties and in this way quantum mechanics can be explicitly shown considering the (semi-quantitative periodic properties. These periodic properties can be obtained with a simple effective Bohr model. An effective Bohr model with an effective quantum defect (u was considered as a probe in order to show the quantum structure embedded in the Periodic Table. u(Z shows a quasi-smoothed dependence of Z, i.e., u(Z ≈ Z2/5 - 1.

  5. Status of the LHC Short Dipole Model Programme

    CERN Document Server

    Tommasini, D; Sanfilippo, S; Siemko, A; Vanenkov, I; Wyss, C

    2000-01-01

    The 1-m model program for the main LHC dipoles is now mainly focussed on double-aperture magnets. In the past years an intensive program based on single-aperture dipoles allowed to select the series-design features among several variants for the coil cross section, the material of the collars and of the coil end spacers, the coil pre-stress and the cable insulation. The recent double-aperture models are dedicated to the fine-tuning of the baseline design and the manufacture of the coil ends. This paper reports about the fabrication and testing of these magnets and the results relevant for the series production of the 15-m long full-size dipole cold masses.

  6. A short-range objective nocturnal temperature forecasting model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sutherland, R. A.

    1980-01-01

    A relatively simple, objective, nocturnal temperature forecasting model suitable for freezing and near-freezing conditions has been designed so that a user, presumably a weather forecaster, can put in standard meteorological data at a particular location and receive an hour-by-hour prediction of surface and air temperatures for that location for an entire night. The user has the option of putting in his own estimates of wind speeds and background sky radiation which are treated as independent variables. An analysis of 141 test runs show that 57.4% of the time the model predicts to within 1 C for the best cases and to within 3 C for 98.0% of all cases.

  7. A new model integrating short- and long-term aging of copper added to soils.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saiqi Zeng

    Full Text Available Aging refers to the processes by which the bioavailability/toxicity, isotopic exchangeability, and extractability of metals added to soils decline overtime. We studied the characteristics of the aging process in copper (Cu added to soils and the factors that affect this process. Then we developed a semi-mechanistic model to predict the lability of Cu during the aging process with descriptions of the diffusion process using complementary error function. In the previous studies, two semi-mechanistic models to separately predict short-term and long-term aging of Cu added to soils were developed with individual descriptions of the diffusion process. In the short-term model, the diffusion process was linearly related to the square root of incubation time (t1/2, and in the long-term model, the diffusion process was linearly related to the natural logarithm of incubation time (lnt. Both models could predict short-term or long-term aging processes separately, but could not predict the short- and long-term aging processes by one model. By analyzing and combining the two models, we found that the short- and long-term behaviors of the diffusion process could be described adequately using the complementary error function. The effect of temperature on the diffusion process was obtained in this model as well. The model can predict the aging process continuously based on four factors-soil pH, incubation time, soil organic matter content and temperature.

  8. Individualized Short-Term Core Temperature Prediction in Humans Using Biomathematical Models

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Gribok, Andrei V; Buller, Mark J; Reifman, Jaques

    2008-01-01

    .... The techniques include a first-principles, physiology-based (SCENARIO) model, a purely data-driven model, and a hybrid model that combines first-principles and data-driven components to provide an early, short-term (20-30 min ahead...

  9. Dynamics for a class of stochastic SIS epidemic models with nonlinear incidence and periodic coefficients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rifhat, Ramziya; Wang, Lei; Teng, Zhidong

    2017-09-01

    In this paper, we investigate the dynamics of a class of periodic stochastic SIS epidemic models with general nonlinear incidence f(S , I) . Some sufficient conditions on the permanence in the mean and extinction of positive solutions with probability one are established. By using the Khasminskii's boundary periodic Markov processes, the existence of stochastic nontrivial periodic solution for the models is also obtained. The numerical simulations are given to illustrate the main theoretical results and some interesting conjectures are presented.

  10. Periodic solution and stationary distribution of stochastic SIR epidemic models with higher order perturbation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Qun; Jiang, Daqing; Hayat, Tasawar; Ahmad, Bashir

    2017-09-01

    In this paper, we investigate two stochastic SIR epidemic models with higher order perturbation. For the nonautonomous periodic case of the model, by using Has'minskii's theory of periodic solution, we show that the system has at least one nontrivial positive T-periodic solution. For the system disturbed by both the white noise and telephone noise, we establish sufficient conditions for positive recurrence and the existence of ergodic stationary distribution of the positive solution.

  11. Modelling of GMA welding in short-arc mode

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Planckaert, J.P.

    2008-07-01

    Nowadays there is a lot of welding processes giving an answer to the great diversity of joints to realize and to the characteristics of the metals employed. The first chapter describes the different power sources used in welding. After that, a more detailed explanation of arc welding is given. Finally we present the design of a welding test bed. One can, of course, use an empirical approach to optimize a process. Nevertheless there are advantages in choosing an analytical approach since we can expect significant progress in the understanding of the dynamical interactions in the arc. That's why we present in the second chapter the theoretical knowledge concerning the behaviour of the molten metal transferred during Gas Metal Arc Welding. This work involves as well an experimental aspect required for the elaboration of the databases used to build the model. The recordings were made at CTAS on a test bed equipped with an acquisition system for measuring voltage, current, wire feed speed and high speed videos. The third chapter presents our research of a segmentation method to measure some relevant quantities. We propose a software sensor based on the active contour theory and we show good results on experimental movies. An adjustment step of the model is needed and described in the fourth chapter. The created simulator allows us to interpret some important phenomena in welding, to make a sensitive study 'without risk' and to give theoretical defect signatures. (author)

  12. A short mnemonic to support the comprehensive geriatric assessment model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Brenda; Grant, Cristin

    2016-10-06

    With an increasing number of older people using emergency services, researchers have raised concerns about the quality of care in an environment that is not designed to address older patients' specific needs and conditions. The comprehensive geriatric assessment (CGA) model was developed to address these issues, and to optimise healthcare delivery to older adults. This article introduces a complementary mnemonic, FRAIL, that refers to important elements of health information to consider before initiating care for older patients - falls/functional decline, reactions, altered mental status, illnesses, and living situation. It is not intended to replace the CGA, but can help to quickly identify high-risk older patients who warrant a more in-depth clinical assessment with CGA.

  13. Oscillatory periods in the sun and theoretical models with or without mixing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scuflaire, R.; Gabriel, M.; Noels, A.; Boury, A.

    1975-01-01

    Theoretical eigenvalues corresponding to periods less than one hour are presented for a standard solar model and for models of about the solar age which are undergoing a thermal pulse following a fast mixing. The two sets of eigenvalues differ very little, the differences being probably less than the accuracy of Hill's observations, except that the standard solar model presents a quadrupolar oscillation with a 43 min period while the mixed models do not. This period does not seem to be present in Hill's observations. (orig./BJ) [de

  14. Bifurcations of a periodically forced microbial continuous culture model with restrained growth rate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ren, Jingli; Yuan, Qigang

    2017-08-01

    A three dimensional microbial continuous culture model with a restrained microbial growth rate is studied in this paper. Two types of dilution rates are considered to investigate the dynamic behaviors of the model. For the unforced system, fold bifurcation and Hopf bifurcation are detected, and numerical simulations reveal that the system undergoes degenerate Hopf bifurcation. When the system is periodically forced, bifurcation diagrams for periodic solutions of period-one and period-two are given by researching the Poincaré map, corresponding to different bifurcation cases in the unforced system. Stable and unstable quasiperiodic solutions are obtained by Neimark-Sacker bifurcation with different parameter values. Periodic solutions of various periods can occur or disappear and even change their stability, when the Poincaré map of the forced system undergoes Neimark-Sacker bifurcation, flip bifurcation, and fold bifurcation. Chaotic attractors generated by a cascade of period doublings and some phase portraits are given at last.

  15. Crash test for groundwater recharge models: The effects of model complexity and calibration period on groundwater recharge predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moeck, Christian; Von Freyberg, Jana; Schrimer, Maria

    2016-04-01

    An important question in recharge impact studies is how model choice, structure and calibration period affect recharge predictions. It is still unclear if a certain model type or structure is less affected by running the model on time periods with different hydrological conditions compared to the calibration period. This aspect, however, is crucial to ensure reliable predictions of groundwater recharge. In this study, we quantify and compare the effect of groundwater recharge model choice, model parametrization and calibration period in a systematic way. This analysis was possible thanks to a unique data set from a large-scale lysimeter in a pre-alpine catchment where daily long-term recharge rates are available. More specifically, the following issues are addressed: We systematically evaluate how the choice of hydrological models influences predictions of recharge. We assess how different parameterizations of models due to parameter non-identifiability affect predictions of recharge by applying a Monte Carlo approach. We systematically assess how the choice of calibration periods influences predictions of recharge within a differential split sample test focusing on the model performance under extreme climatic and hydrological conditions. Results indicate that all applied models (simple lumped to complex physically based models) were able to simulate the observed recharge rates for five different calibration periods. However, there was a marked impact of the calibration period when the complete 20 years validation period was simulated. Both, seasonal and annual differences between simulated and observed daily recharge rates occurred when the hydrological conditions were different to the calibration period. These differences were, however, less distinct for the physically based models, whereas the simpler models over- or underestimate the observed recharge depending on the considered season. It is, however, possible to reduce the differences for the simple models by

  16. Animal models of gastrointestinal and liver diseases. Animal models of infant short bowel syndrome

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sangild, Per Torp; Ney, Denise M; Sigalet, David L

    2014-01-01

    help but careful evaluation of the cellular mechanisms, safety and translational relevance of new procedures are required. Distal intestinal resection, without a functioning colon, results in the most severe complications and adaptation may depend on the age at resection (preterm, term, young, adult...... hormone, insulin-like growth factor 1, epidermal growth factor, keratinocyte growth factor). The greater size of rats, and especially young pigs, is an advantage for testing surgical procedures and nutritional interventions (e.g. PN, milk diets, long/short chain lipids, pre- and probiotics). Conversely......, newborn pigs and weanling rats represent a translational advantage for infant SBS due to their immature intestine. A balance among practical, economical, experimental and ethical constraints determines the choice of SBS model for each clinical or basic research question....

  17. Break-even concentration and periodic behavior of a stochastic chemostat model with seasonal fluctuation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Dianli; Yuan, Sanling

    2017-05-01

    This paper formulates a single-species stochastic chemostat model with periodic coefficients due to seasonal fluctuation. When the noise is small, a modified break-even concentration is identified, whose value below or above the averaged concentration of the input nutrient can completely determine whether the microorganism will persist or not, where an accuracy decay rate is given for extinction. In case of persistence, existence of the random positive periodic solution is proved for the considered model. Further, the random periodic solution is shown to be globally attractive under some mild extra condition. The periodic dynamics obtained in this paper are supported by computer simulations.

  18. A dearth of short-period massive binaries in the young massive star forming region M 17. Evidence for a large orbital separation at birth?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sana, H.; Ramírez-Tannus, M. C.; de Koter, A.; Kaper, L.; Tramper, F.; Bik, A.

    2017-03-01

    Aims: The formation of massive stars remains poorly understood and little is known about their birth multiplicity properties. Here, we aim to quantitatively investigate the strikingly low radial-velocity dispersion measured for a sample of 11 massive pre- and near-main-sequence stars (σ1D= 5.6 ± 0.2 km s-1) in the very young massive star forming region M 17, in order to obtain first constraints on the multiplicity properties of young massive stellar objects. Methods: We compute the radial-velocity dispersion of synthetic populations of massive stars for various multiplicity properties and we compare the obtained σ1D distributions to the observed value. We specifically investigate two scenarios: a low binary fraction and a dearth of short-period binary systems. Results: Simulated populations with low binary fractions () or with truncated period distributions (Pcutoff > 9 months) are able to reproduce the low σ1D observed within their 68%-confidence intervals. Furthermore, parent populations with fbin > 0.42 or Pcutoff < 47 d can be rejected at the 5%-significance level. Both constraints are in stark contrast with the high binary fraction and plethora of short-period systems in few Myr-old, well characterized OB-type populations. To explain the difference in the context of the first scenario would require a variation of the outcome of the massive star formation process. In the context of the second scenario, compact binaries must form later on, and the cut-off period may be related to physical length-scales representative of the bloated pre-main-sequence stellar radii or of their accretion disks. Conclusions: If the obtained constraints for the M 17's massive-star population are representative of the multiplicity properties of massive young stellar objects, our results may provide support to a massive star formation process in which binaries are initially formed at larger separations, then harden or migrate to produce the typical (untruncated) power-law period

  19. Retention of a 24-hour time memory in Syrian hamsters carrying the 20-hour short circadian period mutation in casein kinase-1ε (ck1εtau/tau).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cain, Sean W; Yoon, Jeena; Shrestha, Tenjin C; Ralph, Martin R

    2014-10-01

    Circadian rhythmic expression of conditioned place avoidance (CPA) was produced in Syrian hamsters homozygous for the circadian short period mutation, tau. In constant dim red light neither the 20 h endogenous period, nor a 20 h place conditioning schedule eliminated the 24 h modulation of CPA behavior described previously for wild type (wt) hamsters and other species. Tau mutants exhibited a 20 h rhythm superimposed on the 24 h modulation. The 20 h component was removed selectively with lesions of the suprachiasmatic nucleus. Wt animals conditioned on a 20 h schedule did not produce a 20 h rhythm, but still expressed the 24 h modulation. The results show that the context entrainable oscillator (CEO) underlying memory for the timing of an unconditioned stimulus, retains a period of about 24 h regardless of clock gene background (tau mutation) and/or the conditioning schedule (24 vs 20 h). Therefore the CEO responsible for time memory is distinct from the biological clock controlling activity; the underlying circadian molecular mechanisms may differ from the ubiquitous transcription-translation feedback oscillator; and time memory itself is not classically conditioned. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. The SMC (Short Model Coil) Nb3Sn Program: FE Analysis with 3D Modeling

    CERN Document Server

    Kokkinos, C; Guinchard, M; Karppinen, M; Manil, P; Perez, J C; Regis, F

    2012-01-01

    The SMC (Short Model Coil) project aims at testing superconducting coils in racetrack configuration, wound with Nb3Sn cable. The degradation of the magnetic properties of the cable is studied by applying different levels of pre-stress. It is an essential step in the validation of procedures for the construction of superconducting magnets with high performance conductor. Two SMC assemblies have been completed and cold tested in the frame of a European collaboration between CEA (FR), CERN and STFC (UK), with the technical support from LBNL (US). The second assembly showed remarkable good quench results, reaching a peak field of 12.5T. This paper details the new 3D modeling method of the SMC, implemented using the ANSYS® Workbench environment. Advanced computer-aided-design (CAD) tools are combined with multi-physics Finite Element Analyses (FEA), in the same integrated graphic interface, forming a fully parametric model that enables simulation driven development of the SMC project. The magnetic and structural ...

  1. Short-Term Wind Power Interval Forecasting Based on an EEMD-RT-RVM Model

    OpenAIRE

    Haixiang Zang; Lei Fan; Mian Guo; Zhinong Wei; Guoqiang Sun; Li Zhang

    2016-01-01

    Accurate short-term wind power forecasting is important for improving the security and economic success of power grids. Existing wind power forecasting methods are mostly types of deterministic point forecasting. Deterministic point forecasting is vulnerable to forecasting errors and cannot effectively deal with the random nature of wind power. In order to solve the above problems, we propose a short-term wind power interval forecasting model based on ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EE...

  2. Computer-Aided Modelling of Short-Path Evaporation for Chemical Product Purification, Analysis and Design

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sales-Cruz, Alfonso Mauricio; Gani, Rafiqul

    2006-01-01

    An important stage in the design process for many chemical products is its manufacture where, for a class of chemical products that may be thermally unstable (such as, drugs, insecticides, flavours /fragrances, and so on), the purification step plays a major role. Short-path evaporation is a safe...... method, suitable for separation and purification of thermally unstable materials whose design and analysis can be efficiently performed through reliable model-based techniques. This paper presents a generalized model for short-path evaporation and highlights its development, implementation and solution...... glycerol, mono-, di- and triglycerides, and (b) the recovery of a pharmaceutical product from a six-component mixture. Validation of the short-path evaporation model is highlighted through the comparison of experimental data from an industrial pilot plant with the simulated results from the model. Also...

  3. Comparison of short term rainfall forecasts for model based flow prediction in urban drainage systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorndahl, Søren; Poulsen, Troels Sander; Bøvith, Thomas

    2012-01-01

    Forecast based flow prediction in drainage systems can be used to implement real time control of drainage systems. This study compares two different types of rainfall forecasts – a radar rainfall extrapolation based nowcast model and a numerical weather prediction model. The models are applied...... performance of the system is found using the radar nowcast for the short leadtimes and weather model for larger lead times....

  4. Comparison Of Short Term Rainfall Forecasts For Model Based Flow Prediction In Urban Drainage Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorndahl, Søren Liedtke; Poulsen, Troels Sander; Bøvith, Thomas

    2012-01-01

    Forecast based flow prediction in drainage systems can be used to implement real time control of drainage systems. This study compares two different types of rainfall forecasts – a radar rainfall extrapolation based nowcast model and a numerical weather prediction model. The models are applied...... performance of the system is found using the radar nowcast for the short leadtimes and weather model for larger lead times....

  5. Postscript: More Problems with Botvinick and Plaut's (2006) PDP Model of Short-Term Memory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowers, Jeffrey S.; Damian, Markus F.; Davis, Colin J.

    2009-01-01

    Presents a postscript to the current authors' comment on the original article, "Short-term memory for serial order: A recurrent neural network model," by M. M. Botvinick and D. C. Plaut. In their commentary, the current authors demonstrated that Botvinick and Plaut's (2006) model of immediate serial recall catastrophically fails when familiar…

  6. Short-Term Memory for Serial Order: A Recurrent Neural Network Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Botvinick, Matthew M.; Plaut, David C.

    2006-01-01

    Despite a century of research, the mechanisms underlying short-term or working memory for serial order remain uncertain. Recent theoretical models have converged on a particular account, based on transient associations between independent item and context representations. In the present article, the authors present an alternative model, according…

  7. Modelling the short-term response of the Greenland ice-sheet to global warming

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wal, R.S.W. van de; Oerlemans, J.

    1997-01-01

    A two-dimensional vertically integrated ice flow model has been developed to test the importance of various processes and concepts used for the prediction of the contribution of the Greenland ice-sheet to sea-level rise over the next 350 y (short-term response). The mass balance is modelled by the

  8. Short-interval leg movements during sleep entail greater cardiac activation than periodic leg movements during sleep in restless legs syndrome patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferri, Raffaele; Rundo, Francesco; Silvani, Alessandro; Zucconi, Marco; Aricò, Debora; Bruni, Oliviero; Lanuzza, Bartolo; Ferini-Strambi, Luigi; Manconi, Mauro

    2017-10-01

    Periodic leg movements during sleep (PLMS) are sequences of ≥4 motor events with intermovement intervals (IMI) of 10-90 s. PLMS are a supportive diagnostic criterion for restless legs syndrome (RLS) and entail cardiac activation, particularly when associated with arousal. RLS patients also over-express short-interval leg movements during sleep (SILMS), which have IMI leg movements. We found that the duration of the R-R interval decrease with SILMS doublets was significantly longer than that with PLMS, whereas the maximal decrease in R-R interval was similar. Scoring SILMS in RLS patients may therefore be relevant from a cardiac autonomic perspective. © 2017 European Sleep Research Society.

  9. THE MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL FALLEN IN SHORT PERIODS OF TIME IN THE HILLY AREA OF CLUJ COUNTY - GENESIS, DISTRIBUTION AND PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    BLAGA IRINA

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The maximum amounts of rainfall are usually characterized by high intensity, and their effects on the substrate are revealed, at slope level, by the deepening of the existing forms of torrential erosion and also by the formation of new ones, and by landslide processes. For the 1971-2000 period, for the weather stations in the hilly area of Cluj County: Cluj- Napoca, Dej, Huedin and Turda the highest values of rainfall amounts fallen in 24, 48 and 72 hours were analyzed and extracted, based on which the variation and the spatial and temporal distribution of the precipitation were analyzed. The annual probability of exceedance of maximum rainfall amounts fallen in short time intervals (24, 48 and 72 hours, based on thresholds and class values was determined, using climatological practices and the Hyfran program facilities.

  10. A Statistical and Spectral Model for Representing Noisy Sounds with Short-Time Sinusoids

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Myriam Desainte-Catherine

    2005-07-01

    Full Text Available We propose an original model for noise analysis, transformation, and synthesis: the CNSS model. Noisy sounds are represented with short-time sinusoids whose frequencies and phases are random variables. This spectral and statistical model represents information about the spectral density of frequencies. This perceptually relevant property is modeled by three mathematical parameters that define the distribution of the frequencies. This model also represents the spectral envelope. The mathematical parameters are defined and the analysis algorithms to extract these parameters from sounds are introduced. Then algorithms for generating sounds from the parameters of the model are presented. Applications of this model include tools for composers, psychoacoustic experiments, and pedagogy.

  11. Dust environment and dynamical history of a sample of short-period comets . II. 81P/Wild 2 and 103P/Hartley 2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pozuelos, F. J.; Moreno, F.; Aceituno, F.; Casanova, V.; Sota, A.; López-Moreno, J. J.; Castellano, J.; Reina, E.; Climent, A.; Fernández, A.; San Segundo, A.; Häusler, B.; González, C.; Rodriguez, D.; Bryssinck, E.; Cortés, E.; Rodriguez, F. A.; Baldris, F.; García, F.; Gómez, F.; Limón, F.; Tifner, F.; Muler, G.; Almendros, I.; de los Reyes, J. A.; Henríquez, J. A.; Moreno, J. A.; Báez, J.; Bel, J.; Camarasa, J.; Curto, J.; Hernández, J. F.; González, J. J.; Martín, J. J.; Salto, J. L.; Lopesino, J.; Bosch, J. M.; Ruiz, J. M.; Vidal, J. R.; Ruiz, J.; Sánchez, J.; Temprano, J.; Aymamí, J. M.; Lahuerta, L.; Montoro, L.; Campas, M.; García, M. A.; Canales, O.; Benavides, R.; Dymock, R.; García, R.; Ligustri, R.; Naves, R.; Lahuerta, S.; Pastor, S.

    2014-11-01

    Aims: This paper is a continuation of the first paper in this series, where we presented an extended study of the dust environment of a sample of short-period comets and their dynamical history. On this occasion, we focus on comets 81P/Wild 2 and 103P/Hartley 2, which are of special interest as targets of the spacecraft missions Stardust and EPOXI. Methods: As in the previous study, we used two sets of observational data: a set of images, acquired at Sierra Nevada and Lulin observatories, and the Afρ data as a function of the heliocentric distance provided by the amateur astronomical association Cometas-Obs. The dust environment of comets (dust loss rate, ejection velocities, and size distribution of the particles) was derived from our Monte Carlo dust tail code. To determine their dynamical history we used the numerical integrator Mercury 6.2 to ascertain the time spent by these objects in the Jupiter family Comet region. Results: From the dust analysis, we conclude that both 81P/Wild 2 and 103P/Hartley 2 are dusty comets, with an annual dust production rate of 2.8 × 109 kg yr-1 and (0.4-1.5) × 109 kg yr-1, respectively. From the dynamical analysis, we determined their time spent in the Jupiter family Comet region as ~40 yr in the case of 81P/Wild 2 and ~1000 yr for comet 103P/Hartley 2. These results imply that 81P/Wild 2 is the youngest and the most active comet of the eleven short-period comets studied so far, which tends to favor the correlation between the time spent in JFCs region and the comet activity previously discussed.

  12. Possible link of sudden onset and short-time periodic pulsation of polar mesosphere summer echoes to ULF Pc5 geomagnetic pulsations and solar wind dynamic pressure enhancement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Y.; Kirkwood, S.; Kwak, Y. S.

    2016-12-01

    The EISCAT VHF incoherent scatter radar in Tromsö, Norway, makes occasional observations of electron densities and Polar Mesosphere Summer Echoes, in the summer polar D-region ionosphere. In one of those datasets, pulsating polar mesospheric summer echoes (PMSE) are observed, with periodicities in the ultra-low frequency (ULF) Pc5 band (1.6-6.7 mHz), following an abrupt increase of the radar reflectivity when a geomagnetic field excursion is started, in turn linked to dynamic pressure (Pdyn) enhancement in the solar wind. At the excursion of the magnetic field, at auroral altitudes of 90 km and above, electron density is abruptly enhanced, followed by a series of short-lived peaks, superimposed on an enhanced level. The short-lived peaks are likely a signature of transient Pc5 geomagnetic pulsations and associated energetic electron precipitation from pitch-angle scattering into the loss cone in the magnetosphere. At the same time, at altitudes around 80-90 km, a sharp increase of PMSE reflectivity occurs, 100 times greater than the increase of electron density, and is followed by pulsating PMSE reflectivity with periodicities in the Pc5 band, increasing and decreasing in magnitude during the course of the next hour. The increase of the pulsation magnitude may be attributed to an increase of high-energy electron precipitation flux ( >30 keV) penetrating to at least the height of maximum PMSE reflectivity. This study suggests that Pc5 pulsation bursts in both magnetic field and high energy electron precipitation could play a crucial role in producing PMSE fluctuations on minute-to-minute time scales.

  13. Utilization of Short-Simulations for Tuning High-Resolution Climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, W.; Xie, S.; Ma, P. L.; Rasch, P. J.; Qian, Y.; Wan, H.; Ma, H. Y.; Klein, S. A.

    2016-12-01

    Many physical parameterizations in atmospheric models are sensitive to resolution. Tuning the models that involve a multitude of parameters at high resolution is computationally expensive, particularly when relying primarily on multi-year simulations. This work describes a complementary set of strategies for tuning high-resolution atmospheric models, using ensembles of short simulations to reduce the computational cost and elapsed time. Specifically, we utilize the hindcast approach developed through the DOE Cloud Associated Parameterization Testbed (CAPT) project for high-resolution model tuning, which is guided by a combination of short (global mean statistics and many spatial features are consistent between Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP)-type simulations and CAPT-type hindcasts, with just a small number of short-term simulations for the latter over the corresponding season. The use of CAPT hindcasts to find parameter choice for the reduction of large model biases dramatically improves the turnaround time for the tuning at high resolution. Improvement seen in CAPT hindcasts generally translates to improved AMIP-type simulations. An iterative CAPT-AMIP tuning approach is therefore adopted during each major tuning cycle, with the former to survey the likely responses and narrow the parameter space, and the latter to verify the results in climate context along with assessment in greater detail once an educated set of parameter choice is selected. Limitations on using short-term simulations for tuning climate model are also discussed.

  14. Equivalent-circuit model for stacked slot-based 2D periodic arrays of arbitrary geometry for broadband analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Astorino, Maria Denise; Frezza, Fabrizio; Tedeschi, Nicola

    2018-03-01

    The analysis of the transmission and reflection spectra of stacked slot-based 2D periodic structures of arbitrary geometry and the ability to devise and control their electromagnetic responses have been a matter of extensive research for many decades. The purpose of this paper is to develop an equivalent Π circuit model based on the transmission-line theory and Floquet harmonic interactions, for broadband and short longitudinal period analysis. The proposed circuit model overcomes the limits of identical and symmetrical configurations imposed by the even/odd excitation approach, exploiting both the circuit topology of a single 2D periodic array of apertures and the ABCD matrix formalism. The transmission spectra obtained through the equivalent-circuit model have been validated by comparison with full-wave simulations carried out with a finite-element commercial electromagnetic solver. This allowed for a physical insight into the spectral and angular responses of multilayer devices with arbitrary aperture shapes, guaranteeing a noticeable saving of computational resources.

  15. Concession Period Decision Models for Public Infrastructure Projects Based on Option Games

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhi Wang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Concession period is an important decision-making variable for the investment and construction of public infrastructure projects. However, we currently have few scientific methods to exactly determine the concession period. This paper managed to seek out concession period decision models for public infrastructure with option game theory, studied the influence of minimum government income guarantee and government investment on concession period, and demonstrated those models in the formulas mentioned in the paper. The research results showed that the increase of minimum government income guarantee value would shorten the concession period, while the increase of income volatility, that is, the uncertainty, would lengthen the concession period. In terms of government investment, optimal concession period would lengthen to some extent with the increase of government investment ratio and the income and the decrease of its guarantee value. Yet, optimal concession period would shorten in case of extreme highness of the government investment ratio due to its high guarantee value. And the government would accordingly shorten the concession period in case of the unchanged government investment ratio with the increased income volatility and risks. Still, the paper put forward the argument that the government would apply various guarantee methods and implement flexible concession period in accordance with the specific circumstances of public infrastructure projects.

  16. Positive Almost Periodic Solutions for a Time-Varying Fishing Model with Delay

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xia Li

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper is concerned with a time-varying fishing model with delay. By means of the continuation theorem of coincidence degree theory, we prove that it has at least one positive almost periodic solution.

  17. Disability in Mexico: a comparative analysis between descriptive models and historical periods using a timeline

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hugo Sandoval

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Some interpretations frequently argue that three Disability Models (DM (Charity, Medical/Rehabilitation, and Social correspond to historical periods in terms of chronological succession. These views permeate a priori within major official documents on the subject in Mexico. This paper intends to test whether this association is plausible by applying a timeline method. A document search was made with inclusion and exclusion criteria in databases to select representative studies with which to depict milestones in the timelines for each period. The following is demonstrated: 1 models should be considered as categories of analysis and not as historical periods, in that the prevalence of elements of the three models is present to date, and 2 the association between disability models and historical periods results in teleological interpretations of the history of disability in Mexico.

  18. A joint stochastic-deterministic approach for long-term and short-term modelling of monthly flow rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stojković, Milan; Kostić, Srđan; Plavšić, Jasna; Prohaska, Stevan

    2017-01-01

    The authors present a detailed procedure for modelling of mean monthly flow time-series using records of the Great Morava River (Serbia). The proposed procedure overcomes a major challenge of other available methods by disaggregating the time series in order to capture the main properties of the hydrologic process in both long-run and short-run. The main assumption of the conducted research is that a time series of monthly flow rates represents a stochastic process comprised of deterministic, stochastic and random components, the former of which can be further decomposed into a composite trend and two periodic components (short-term or seasonal periodicity and long-term or multi-annual periodicity). In the present paper, the deterministic component of a monthly flow time-series is assessed by spectral analysis, whereas its stochastic component is modelled using cross-correlation transfer functions, artificial neural networks and polynomial regression. The results suggest that the deterministic component can be expressed solely as a function of time, whereas the stochastic component changes as a nonlinear function of climatic factors (rainfall and temperature). For the calibration period, the results of the analysis infers a lower value of Kling-Gupta Efficiency in the case of transfer functions (0.736), whereas artificial neural networks and polynomial regression suggest a significantly better match between the observed and simulated values, 0.841 and 0.891, respectively. It seems that transfer functions fail to capture high monthly flow rates, whereas the model based on polynomial regression reproduces high monthly flows much better because it is able to successfully capture a highly nonlinear relationship between the inputs and the output. The proposed methodology that uses a combination of artificial neural networks, spectral analysis and polynomial regression for deterministic and stochastic components can be applied to forecast monthly or seasonal flow rates.

  19. Short-term wind power prediction based on LSSVM–GSA model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yuan, Xiaohui; Chen, Chen; Yuan, Yanbin; Huang, Yuehua; Tan, Qingxiong

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • A hybrid model is developed for short-term wind power prediction. • The model is based on LSSVM and gravitational search algorithm. • Gravitational search algorithm is used to optimize parameters of LSSVM. • Effect of different kernel function of LSSVM on wind power prediction is discussed. • Comparative studies show that prediction accuracy of wind power is improved. - Abstract: Wind power forecasting can improve the economical and technical integration of wind energy into the existing electricity grid. Due to its intermittency and randomness, it is hard to forecast wind power accurately. For the purpose of utilizing wind power to the utmost extent, it is very important to make an accurate prediction of the output power of a wind farm under the premise of guaranteeing the security and the stability of the operation of the power system. In this paper, a hybrid model (LSSVM–GSA) based on the least squares support vector machine (LSSVM) and gravitational search algorithm (GSA) is proposed to forecast the short-term wind power. As the kernel function and the related parameters of the LSSVM have a great influence on the performance of the prediction model, the paper establishes LSSVM model based on different kernel functions for short-term wind power prediction. And then an optimal kernel function is determined and the parameters of the LSSVM model are optimized by using GSA. Compared with the Back Propagation (BP) neural network and support vector machine (SVM) model, the simulation results show that the hybrid LSSVM–GSA model based on exponential radial basis kernel function and GSA has higher accuracy for short-term wind power prediction. Therefore, the proposed LSSVM–GSA is a better model for short-term wind power prediction

  20. Modulational instability, solitons and periodic waves in a model of quantum degenerate boson-fermion mixtures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Belmonte-Beitia, Juan; Perez-Garcia, Victor M.; Vekslerchik, Vadym

    2007-01-01

    In this paper, we study a system of coupled nonlinear Schroedinger equations modelling a quantum degenerate mixture of bosons and fermions. We analyze the stability of plane waves, give precise conditions for the existence of solitons and write explicit solutions in the form of periodic waves. We also check that the solitons observed previously in numerical simulations of the model correspond exactly to our explicit solutions and see how plane waves destabilize to form periodic waves

  1. Language model: Extension to solve inconsistency, incompleteness, and short query in cultural heritage collection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Kian Lam; Lim, Chen Kim

    2017-10-01

    With the explosive growth of online information such as email messages, news articles, and scientific literature, many institutions and museums are converting their cultural collections from physical data to digital format. However, this conversion resulted in the issues of inconsistency and incompleteness. Besides, the usage of inaccurate keywords also resulted in short query problem. Most of the time, the inconsistency and incompleteness are caused by the aggregation fault in annotating a document itself while the short query problem is caused by naive user who has prior knowledge and experience in cultural heritage domain. In this paper, we presented an approach to solve the problem of inconsistency, incompleteness and short query by incorporating the Term Similarity Matrix into the Language Model. Our approach is tested on the Cultural Heritage in CLEF (CHiC) collection which consists of short queries and documents. The results show that the proposed approach is effective and has improved the accuracy in retrieval time.

  2. Model-based fault diagnosis approach on external short circuit of lithium-ion battery used in electric vehicles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Zeyu; Xiong, Rui; Tian, Jinpeng; Shang, Xiong; Lu, Jiahuan

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • The characteristics of ESC fault of lithium-ion battery are investigated experimentally. • The proposed method to simulate the electrical behavior of ESC fault is viable. • Ten parameters in the presented fault model were optimized using a DPSO algorithm. • A two-layer model-based fault diagnosis approach for battery ESC is proposed. • The effective and robustness of the proposed algorithm has been evaluated. - Abstract: This study investigates the external short circuit (ESC) fault characteristics of lithium-ion battery experimentally. An experiment platform is established and the ESC tests are implemented on ten 18650-type lithium cells considering different state-of-charges (SOCs). Based on the experiment results, several efforts have been made. (1) The ESC process can be divided into two periods and the electrical and thermal behaviors within these two periods are analyzed. (2) A modified first-order RC model is employed to simulate the electrical behavior of the lithium cell in the ESC fault process. The model parameters are re-identified by a dynamic-neighborhood particle swarm optimization algorithm. (3) A two-layer model-based ESC fault diagnosis algorithm is proposed. The first layer conducts preliminary fault detection and the second layer gives a precise model-based diagnosis. Four new cells are short-circuited to evaluate the proposed algorithm. It shows that the ESC fault can be diagnosed within 5 s, the error between the model and measured data is less than 0.36 V. The effectiveness of the fault diagnosis algorithm is not sensitive to the precision of battery SOC. The proposed algorithm can still make the correct diagnosis even if there is 10% error in SOC estimation.

  3. A short period of fasting before surgery conserves basal metabolism and suppresses catabolism according to indirect calorimetry performed under general anesthesia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoshimura, Shinichiro; Fujita, Yoshihito; Hirate, Hiroyuki; Kusama, Nobuyoshi; Azami, Takafumi; Sobue, Kazuya

    2015-06-01

    It is recommended that the period of fasting before elective surgery should be shortened to facilitate a rapid recovery by preventing catabolism. We examined the effects of a short period of fasting on metabolism by performing indirect calorimetry (IC) under general anesthesia. A prospective observational study involving 26 consecutive patients who underwent elective surgery and whose metabolism was evaluated using IC during anesthesia was conducted. The patients were divided into two groups, those who fasted for 10 h (group L). Oxygen consumption, the volume of carbon dioxide emissions (VCO2), the respiratory quotient (RQ), resting energy expenditure (REE), and basal energy expenditure (BEE) were compared. The REE, VCO2, and RQ of group L (17.7 ± 2.3 kcal/kg/day, 118.5 ± 20.8 ml/min, and 0.71 ± 0.12, respectively) were significantly lower than those of group S (19.7 ± 2.3 kcal/kg/day, 143.6 ± 30.9 ml/min, and 0.81 ± 0.09, respectively) (P basal metabolism.

  4. Contribution to the experimental survey of the nuclear isomerism. Application of the deferred coincidences method to research and to the survey of metastable states of short period

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ballini, R.

    1953-06-01

    Various methods of the physics brought many informations on the nuclear elements which one can arrange some ponderable quantities, what is the case of the steady elements and some, unsteady elements, as most of natural radioelements. On the other hand, elements of shorter life duration, and notably those that are carried to an excited state, are more badly known, and one can get information to their consideration that by the mediator of the properties of the transitions that they undergo, when they give birth has best-known nuclear cash: among these transitions represent the isomeric transitions. The goal of this work is the survey of the isomeric transitions from metastable states of short period, included in the domain of the microsecond to some milliseconds. The method of the deferred coincidences has been put to the point and applied in this goal while using the advantages of the selectors to several channels, under two main aspects where the device to several channels was either a selector of time, either a selector of amplitudes. This method served to study the working of Geiger-Muller counter and to measure with precision the period of 181 Ta * in of the varied experimental conditions. The adopted value is 17,2 ±0,2 μs. This work also found an immediate practical application to the setting in evidence of very weak quantities of hafnium in zirconium, of which it constitutes a tenacious and difficult impurity to analyze by the ordinary ways. (M.B.) [fr

  5. Calibration of short rate term structure models from bid-ask coupon bond prices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomes-Gonçalves, Erika; Gzyl, Henryk; Mayoral, Silvia

    2018-02-01

    In this work we use the method of maximum entropy in the mean to provide a model free, non-parametric methodology that uses only market data to provide the prices of the zero coupon bonds, and then, a term structure of the short rates. The data used consists of the prices of the bid-ask ranges of a few coupon bonds quoted in the market. The prices of the zero coupon bonds obtained in the first stage, are then used as input to solve a recursive set of equations to determine a binomial recombinant model of the short term structure of the interest rates.

  6. Economic growth and CO2 emissions: an investigation with smooth transition autoregressive distributed lag models for the 1800-2014 period in the USA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bildirici, Melike; Ersin, Özgür Ömer

    2018-01-01

    The study aims to combine the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) cointegration framework with smooth transition autoregressive (STAR)-type nonlinear econometric models for causal inference. Further, the proposed STAR distributed lag (STARDL) models offer new insights in terms of modeling nonlinearity in the long- and short-run relations between analyzed variables. The STARDL method allows modeling and testing nonlinearity in the short-run and long-run parameters or both in the short- and long-run relations. To this aim, the relation between CO 2 emissions and economic growth rates in the USA is investigated for the 1800-2014 period, which is one of the largest data sets available. The proposed hybrid models are the logistic, exponential, and second-order logistic smooth transition autoregressive distributed lag (LSTARDL, ESTARDL, and LSTAR2DL) models combine the STAR framework with nonlinear ARDL-type cointegration to augment the linear ARDL approach with smooth transitional nonlinearity. The proposed models provide a new approach to the relevant econometrics and environmental economics literature. Our results indicated the presence of asymmetric long-run and short-run relations between the analyzed variables that are from the GDP towards CO 2 emissions. By the use of newly proposed STARDL models, the results are in favor of important differences in terms of the response of CO 2 emissions in regimes 1 and 2 for the estimated LSTAR2DL and LSTARDL models.

  7. A periodically-switched ODE model for N-bunch beamloading in a storage ring

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schwartz, C.

    1999-01-01

    A new baseband formulation of the coupled cavity/longitudinal-bunch ODEs is derived. Assuming linearity, a model of the form dot x(t) = A(t)x(t) + B(t)u(t) arises, where A(t) and B(t) are piecewise constant, and periodic with the revolution period T 0 . Such models, known in the control community as (periodic) switched systems, have known (in)stability criteria and control theoretic properties, which can be useful in the analysis and control of multiple bunch beamloading

  8. Dynamical analysis of periodic bursting in piece-wise linear planar neuron model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ji, Ying; Zhang, Xiaofang; Liang, Minjie; Hua, Tingting; Wang, Yawei

    2015-12-01

    A piece-wise linear planar neuron model, namely, two-dimensional McKean model with periodic drive is investigated in this paper. Periodical bursting phenomenon can be observed in the numerical simulations. By assuming the formal solutions associated with different intervals of this non-autonomous system and introducing the generalized Jacobian matrix at the non-smooth boundaries, the bifurcation mechanism for the bursting solution induced by the slowly varying periodic drive is presented. It is shown that, the discontinuous Hopf bifurcation occurring at the non-smooth boundaries, i.e., the bifurcation taking place at the thresholds of the stimulation, leads the alternation between the rest state and spiking state. That is, different oscillation modes of this non-autonomous system convert periodically due to the non-smoothness of the vector field and the slow variation of the periodic drive as well.

  9. A mathematical model for period-memorizing behavior in Physarum plasmodium.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tachikawa, Masashi

    2010-04-21

    Mathematical models to describe period-memorizing behavior in Physarum plasmodium are reported. In constructing the model, we first examine the basic characteristics required for the class of models, then create a minimal linear model to fulfill these requirements. We also propose two modifications of the minimal model, nonlinearization and noise addition, which improve the reproducibility of experimental evidences. Differences in the mechanisms and in the reproducibility of experiments between our models and the previous models are discussed. (c) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. The effects of model complexity and calibration period on groundwater recharge simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moeck, Christian; Van Freyberg, Jana; Schirmer, Mario

    2017-04-01

    A significant number of groundwater recharge models exist that vary in terms of complexity (i.e., structure and parametrization). Typically, model selection and conceptualization is very subjective and can be a key source of uncertainty in the recharge simulations. Another source of uncertainty is the implicit assumption that model parameters, calibrated over historical periods, are also valid for the simulation period. To the best of our knowledge there is no systematic evaluation of the effect of the model complexity and calibration strategy on the performance of recharge models. To address this gap, we utilized a long-term recharge data set (20 years) from a large weighting lysimeter. We performed a differential split sample test with four groundwater recharge models that vary in terms of complexity. They were calibrated using six calibration periods with climatically contrasting conditions in a constrained Monte Carlo approach. Despite the climatically contrasting conditions, all models performed similarly well during the calibration. However, during validation a clear effect of the model structure on model performance was evident. The more complex, physically-based models predicted recharge best, even when calibration and prediction periods had very different climatic conditions. In contrast, more simplistic soil-water balance and lumped model performed poorly under such conditions. For these models we found a strong dependency on the chosen calibration period. In particular, our analysis showed that this can have relevant implications when using recharge models as decision-making tools in a broad range of applications (e.g. water availability, climate change impact studies, water resource management, etc.).

  11. [The effects of 16-weeks pilates mat program on anthropometric variables and body composition in active adult women after a short detraining period].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaquero-Cristóbal, Raquel; Alacid, Fernando; Esparza-Ros, Francisco; Muyor, José M; López-Miñarro, Pedro Ángel

    2015-04-01

    previous studies have analysed the effect of mat Pilates practice on anthropometric variables and body composition in sedentaries. To date no researchs have investigated the benefits of Pilates on these variables after a short detraining period. to determine the effect of a 16-week mat Pilates program on anthropometric variables, body composition and somatotype of women with previous practice experience after three weeks of detraining period. twenty-one women underwent a complete anthropometric assessment according with ISAK guidelines before and after a 16 week mat Pilates program (two days, one hour). All women had one to three years of mat Pilates experience and came to three weeks of detraining period (Christmas holiday). women showed significant decreases for body mass, BMI, upper limb (biceps and triceps) and trunk (subscapular, iliac crest, supraspinale and abdominal) individual skinfolds, 6 and 8 skinfold sums, endomorphy and fat mass; and a significant increases for muscle mass. The mean somatotype was classified as mesomorphic endomorph in the pre- (4.91, 4.01, 1.47) and post-test (4.68, 4.16, 1.69). Eight women changed their somatotype clasification after the intervention program. the practice of mat Pilates for 16 weeks caused changes associated with health state improvements on anthropometric variables, especially on skinfolds which significantly decreased, body composition (fat and muscle masses decreased and increased, respectively) and somatotype (there was a significantly decreased on the endomorph component in experienced women after three week of detraning. Copyright AULA MEDICA EDICIONES 2014. Published by AULA MEDICA. All rights reserved.

  12. Increased food intake and changes in metabolic hormones in response to chronic sleep restriction alternated with short periods of sleep allowance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barf, R Paulien; Desprez, Tifany; Meerlo, Peter; Scheurink, Anton J W

    2012-01-01

    Rodent models for sleep restriction have good face validity when examining food intake and related regulatory metabolic hormones. However, in contrast to epidemiological studies in which sleep restriction is associated with body weight gain, sleep-restricted rats show a decrease in body weight. This difference with the human situation might be caused by the alternation between periods of sleep restriction and sleep allowance that often occur in real life. Therefore, we assessed the metabolic consequences of a chronic sleep restriction protocol that modeled working weeks with restricted sleep time alternated by weekends with sleep allowance. We hypothesized that this protocol could lead to body weight gain. Male Wistar rats were divided into three groups: sleep restriction (SR), forced activity control (FA), and home cage control (HC). SR rats were subjected to chronic sleep restriction by keeping them awake for 20 h per day in slowly rotating drums. To model the human condition, rats were subjected to a 4-wk protocol, with each week consisting of a 5-day period of sleep restriction followed by a 2-day period of sleep allowance. During the first experimental week, SR caused a clear attenuation of growth. In subsequent weeks, two important processes occurred: 1) a remarkable increase in food intake during SR days, 2) an increase in weight gain during the weekends of sleep allowance, even though food intake during those days was comparable to controls. In conclusion, our data revealed that the alternation between periods of sleep restriction and sleep allowance leads to complex changes in food intake and body weight, that prevent the weight loss normally seen in continuous sleep-restricted rats. Therefore, this "week-weekend" protocol may be a better model to study the metabolic consequences of restricted sleep.

  13. Regional emission metrics for short-lived climate forcers from multiple models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Aamaas

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available For short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs, the impact of emissions depends on where and when the emissions take place. Comprehensive new calculations of various emission metrics for SLCFs are presented based on radiative forcing (RF values calculated in four different (chemical-transport or coupled chemistry–climate models. We distinguish between emissions during summer (May–October and winter (November–April for emissions in Europe and East Asia, as well as from the global shipping sector and global emissions. The species included in this study are aerosols and aerosol precursors (BC, OC, SO2, NH3, as well as ozone precursors (NOx, CO, VOCs, which also influence aerosols to a lesser degree. Emission metrics for global climate responses of these emissions, as well as for CH4, have been calculated using global warming potential (GWP and global temperature change potential (GTP, based on dedicated RF simulations by four global models. The emission metrics include indirect cloud effects of aerosols and the semi-direct forcing for BC. In addition to the standard emission metrics for pulse and sustained emissions, we have also calculated a new emission metric designed for an emission profile consisting of a ramping period of 15 years followed by sustained emissions, which is more appropriate for a gradual implementation of mitigation policies.For the aerosols, the emission metric values are larger in magnitude for emissions in Europe than East Asia and for summer than winter. A variation is also observed for the ozone precursors, with largest values for emissions in East Asia and winter for CO and in Europe and summer for VOCs. In general, the variations between the emission metrics derived from different models are larger than the variations between regions and seasons, but the regional and seasonal variations for the best estimate also hold for most of the models individually. Further, the estimated climate impact of an illustrative mitigation

  14. Cell type-specific functions of period genes revealed by novel adipocyte and hepatocyte circadian clock models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chidambaram Ramanathan

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available In animals, circadian rhythms in physiology and behavior result from coherent rhythmic interactions between clocks in the brain and those throughout the body. Despite the many tissue specific clocks, most understanding of the molecular core clock mechanism comes from studies of the suprachiasmatic nuclei (SCN of the hypothalamus and a few other cell types. Here we report establishment and genetic characterization of three cell-autonomous mouse clock models: 3T3 fibroblasts, 3T3-L1 adipocytes, and MMH-D3 hepatocytes. Each model is genetically tractable and has an integrated luciferase reporter that allows for longitudinal luminescence recording of rhythmic clock gene expression using an inexpensive off-the-shelf microplate reader. To test these cellular models, we generated a library of short hairpin RNAs (shRNAs against a panel of known clock genes and evaluated their impact on circadian rhythms. Knockdown of Bmal1, Clock, Cry1, and Cry2 each resulted in similar phenotypes in all three models, consistent with previous studies. However, we observed cell type-specific knockdown phenotypes for the Period and Rev-Erb families of clock genes. In particular, Per1 and Per2, which have strong behavioral effects in knockout mice, appear to play different roles in regulating period length and amplitude in these peripheral systems. Per3, which has relatively modest behavioral effects in knockout mice, substantially affects period length in the three cellular models and in dissociated SCN neurons. In summary, this study establishes new cell-autonomous clock models that are of particular relevance to metabolism and suitable for screening for clock modifiers, and reveals previously under-appreciated cell type-specific functions of clock genes.

  15. Detailed Pseudo-Static Drive Train Modelling with Generator Short Circuit

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warnock, Christopher; Infield, David

    2016-09-01

    Drivetrain failures contribute significantly to wind turbine downtime. Although the root causes of these failures are not yet fully understood, transient events are regarded as an important contributory factor. Despite extensive drive train modelling, limited work has been carried out to assess the impact of a generator short circuit on the drivetrain. In most cases, a generator short circuit is classed as a failure in itself with minimal focus on the subsequent effects on the gearbox and other drivetrain components. This paper will look to analyse the loading on the drivetrain for a doubly fed induction generator (DFIG) short circuit event with turbine ride through using a combination of Simulink, Garrad Hassan's Bladed and RomaxWind drive train modelling software.

  16. Estimating the periodic components of a biomedical signal through inverse problem modelling and Bayesian inference with sparsity enforcing prior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dumitru, Mircea; Djafari, Ali-Mohammad

    2015-01-01

    The recent developments in chronobiology need a periodic components variation analysis for the signals expressing the biological rhythms. A precise estimation of the periodic components vector is required. The classical approaches, based on FFT methods, are inefficient considering the particularities of the data (short length). In this paper we propose a new method, using the sparsity prior information (reduced number of non-zero values components). The considered law is the Student-t distribution, viewed as a marginal distribution of a Infinite Gaussian Scale Mixture (IGSM) defined via a hidden variable representing the inverse variances and modelled as a Gamma Distribution. The hyperparameters are modelled using the conjugate priors, i.e. using Inverse Gamma Distributions. The expression of the joint posterior law of the unknown periodic components vector, hidden variables and hyperparameters is obtained and then the unknowns are estimated via Joint Maximum A Posteriori (JMAP) and Posterior Mean (PM). For the PM estimator, the expression of the posterior law is approximated by a separable one, via the Bayesian Variational Approximation (BVA), using the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence. Finally we show the results on synthetic data in cancer treatment applications.

  17. Unobserved Heterogeneity in the Binary Logit Model with Cross-Sectional Data and Short Panels

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holm, Anders; Jæger, Mads Meier; Pedersen, Morten

    This paper proposes a new approach to dealing with unobserved heterogeneity in applied research using the binary logit model with cross-sectional data and short panels. Unobserved heterogeneity is particularly important in non-linear regression models such as the binary logit model because, unlike...... in linear regression models, estimates of the effects of observed independent variables are biased even when omitted independent variables are uncorrelated with the observed independent variables. We propose an extension of the binary logit model based on a finite mixture approach in which we conceptualize...

  18. An Optimization Model for Simultaneous Periodic Timetable Generation and Stability Analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sparing, D.; Goverde, R.M.P.; Hansen, I.A.

    2013-01-01

    We present an optimization model which is able to generate feasible periodic timetables for networks given the line structure and the requested line frequencies, taking into account infrastructure constraints and train overtake locations. As the model uses the minimum cycle time as the objective

  19. Periodic Seasonal Reg-ARFIMA-GARCH Models for Daily Electricity Spot Prices

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ooms, M.; Koopman, S.J.; Carnero, A.M.

    2007-01-01

    Novel periodic extensions of dynamic long-memory regression models with autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic errors are considered for the analysis of daily electricity spot prices. The parameters of the model with mean and variance specifications are estimated simultaneously by the method of

  20. Global stability, periodic solutions, and optimal control in a nonlinear differential delay model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anatoli F. Ivanov

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available A nonlinear differential equation with delay serving as a mathematical model of several applied problems is considered. Sufficient conditions for the global asymptotic stability and for the existence of periodic solutions are given. Two particular applications are treated in detail. The first one is a blood cell production model by Mackey, for which new periodicity criteria are derived. The second application is a modified economic model with delay due to Ramsey. An optimization problem for a maximal consumption is stated and solved for the latter.

  1. Statistical mechanics of neocortical interactions: Constraints on 40-Hz models of short-term memory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ingber, Lester

    1995-10-01

    Calculations presented in L. Ingber and P.L. Nunez, Phys. Rev. E 51, 5074 (1995) detailed the evolution of short-term memory in the neocortex, supporting the empirical 7+/-2 rule of constraints on the capacity of neocortical processing. These results are given further support when other recent models of 40-Hz subcycles of low-frequency oscillations are considered.

  2. Proton electromagnetic form factor in the vector dominance model modified at short distances

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bilenkaya, S.I.; Skachkov, N.B.; Solovtsov, I.L.

    1977-01-01

    Predictions of a vector dominance model modified at short distances are compared with the experimental data available on ep elastic scattering. It is shown that the consideration of the proton central part with the radius equal to its Compton wave length give a better description

  3. A Short Introduction to Model Selection, Kolmogorov Complexity and Minimum Description Length (MDL)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nannen, Volker

    2010-01-01

    The concept of overtting in model selection is explained and demon- strated. After providing some background information on information theory and Kolmogorov complexity, we provide a short explanation of Minimum Description Length and error minimization. We conclude with a discussion of the typical

  4. Link Budget Analysis and Modeling of Short-Range UWB Channels

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Irahhauten, Z.; Dacuna, J.; Janssen, G.J.M.; Nikookar, H.; Yarovoy, A.G.; Ligthart, L.P.

    2008-01-01

    Ultrawideband (UWB) technology is an attractive alternative for short-range applications, e.g., wireless personal area networks. In these applications, transmit and receive antennas are very close to each other and the far-field condition assumed in most of the link budget models may not be

  5. Electro-thermal modeling of high power IGBT module short-circuits with experimental validation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wu, Rui; Iannuzzo, Francesco; Wang, Huai

    2015-01-01

    A novel Insulated Gate Bipolar Transistor (IGBT) electro-thermal modeling approach involving PSpice and ANSYS/Icepak with both high accuracy and simulation speed has been presented to study short-circuit of a 1.7 kV/1 kA commercial IGBT module. The approach successfully predicts the current...

  6. Network model and short circuit program for the Kennedy Space Center electric power distribution system

    Science.gov (United States)

    1976-01-01

    Assumptions made and techniques used in modeling the power network to the 480 volt level are discussed. Basic computational techniques used in the short circuit program are described along with a flow diagram of the program and operational procedures. Procedures for incorporating network changes are included in this user's manual.

  7. Quantifying particle dispersal in aquatic sediments at short time scales: model selection

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meysman, F.J.R.; Malyuga, V.; Boudreau, B.P.; Middelburg, J.J.

    2008-01-01

    In a pulse-tracer experiment, a layer of tracer particles is added to the sediment-water interface, and the down-mixing of these particles is followed over a short time scale. Here, we compare different models (biodiffusion, telegraph, CTRW) to analyse the resulting tracer depth profiles. The

  8. Modelling the Volatility in Short and Long Haul Japanese Tourist Arrivals to New Zealand and Taiwan

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); M.J. McAleer (Michael); C. Lim (Christine)

    2011-01-01

    textabstractThis paper estimates the effects of short and long haul volatility (or risk) in monthly Japanese tourist arrivals to Taiwan and New Zealand, respectively. In order to model appropriately the volatilities of international tourist arrivals, we use symmetric and asymmetric conditional

  9. Modelling the volatility in short and long haul Japanese tourist arrivals to New Zealand and Taiwan

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); M.J. McAleer (Michael); C. Lim (Christine)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractThis paper estimates the effects of short and long haul volatility (or risk) in monthly Japanese tourist arrivals to Taiwan and New Zealand, respectively. In order to model appropriately the volatilities of international tourist arrivals, we use symmetric and asymmetric conditional

  10. A viscoelastic-viscoplastic model for short-fibre reinforced polymers with complex fibre orientations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nciri M.

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an innovative approach for the modelling of viscous behaviour of short-fibre reinforced composites (SFRC with complex distributions of fibre orientations and for a wide range of strain rates. As an alternative to more complex homogenisation methods, the model is based on an additive decomposition of the state potential for the computation of composite’s macroscopic behaviour. Thus, the composite material is seen as the assembly of a matrix medium and several linear elastic fibre media. The division of short fibres into several families means that complex distributions of orientation or random orientation can be easily modelled. The matrix behaviour is strain-rate sensitive, i.e. viscoelastic and/or viscoplastic. Viscoelastic constitutive laws are based on a generalised linear Maxwell model and the modelling of the viscoplasticity is based on an overstress approach. The model is tested for the case of a polypropylene reinforced with short-glass fibres with distributed orientations and subjected to uniaxial tensile tests, in different loading directions and under different strain rates. Results demonstrate the efficiency of the model over a wide range of strain rates.

  11. Modelling of continuous and discontinuous floating slab tracks in a tunnel using a periodic approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gupta, S.; Degrande, G.

    2010-04-01

    This paper presents a periodic approach to couple a track and a tunnel-soil system of different periodicity. The periodicity of the track and the tunnel-soil system is exploited using the Floquet transform to efficiently formulate the problem in the frequency-wavenumber domain as well as to limit the discretization effort to a reference cell. The track and the tunnel-soil system are modelled as two separate systems of different periodicity and are coupled in the frequency-wavenumber domain. A coupled periodic finite element-boundary element method is used to model the tunnel-soil system, while a periodic finite element model or an analytical approach is used to model the track. A general analytical formulation to compute the response of three-dimensional periodic media that are excited by moving loads is discussed. It is shown that the response due to moving loads on the track can be calculated from the transfer function of the track-tunnel-soil system and the axle loads. A methodology for computing the transfer functions of the coupled track-tunnel-soil system as well as the computation of dynamic forces accounting for the interaction between the moving vehicle and the periodic track are described. The model accounts for quasi-static forces as well as dynamic forces due to parametric excitation and unevenness excitation. The methodology has been used to assess the vibration isolation efficiency of continuous and discontinuous floating slab tracks. It is concluded that both continuous and discontinuous floating slab tracks have a similar efficiency in the frequency range well above the isolation frequency of the slabs, which is usually higher than the slab passage frequency. In case of discontinuous slab tracks, the parametric excitation is found to be important, which results in a poorer performance of the track at low frequencies.

  12. Standardizing the performance evaluation of short-term wind prediction models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Henrik; Pinson, Pierre; Kariniotakis, G.

    2005-01-01

    Short-term wind power prediction is a primary requirement for efficient large-scale integration of wind generation in power systems and electricity markets. The choice of an appropriate prediction model among the numerous available models is not trivial, and has to be based on an objective...... evaluation of model performance. This paper proposes a standardized protocol for the evaluation of short-term wind-poser preciction systems. A number of reference prediction models are also described, and their use for performance comparison is analysed. The use of the protocol is demonstrated using results...... from both on-shore and off-shore wind forms. The work was developed in the frame of the Anemos project (EU R&D project) where the protocol has been used to evaluate more than 10 prediction systems....

  13. An Empirical Path-Loss Model for Wireless Channels in Indoor Short-Range Office Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ye Wang

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available A novel empirical path-loss model for wireless indoor short-range office environment at 4.3–7.3 GHz band is presented. The model is developed based on the experimental datum sampled in 30 office rooms in both line of sight (LOS and non-LOS (NLOS scenarios. The model is characterized as the path loss to distance with a Gaussian random variable X due to the shadow fading by using linear regression. The path-loss exponent n is fitted by the frequency using power function and modeled as a frequency-dependent Gaussian variable as the standard deviation σ of X. The presented works should be available for the research of wireless channel characteristics under universal indoor short-distance environments in the Internet of Things (IOT.

  14. Self-similarities of periodic structures for a discrete model of a two-gene system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Souza, S.L.T. de, E-mail: thomaz@ufsj.edu.br [Departamento de Física e Matemática, Universidade Federal de São João del-Rei, Ouro Branco, MG (Brazil); Lima, A.A. [Escola de Farmácia, Universidade Federal de Ouro Preto, Ouro Preto, MG (Brazil); Caldas, I.L. [Instituto de Física, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, SP (Brazil); Medrano-T, R.O. [Departamento de Ciências Exatas e da Terra, Universidade Federal de São Paulo, Diadema, SP (Brazil); Guimarães-Filho, Z.O. [Aix-Marseille Univ., CNRS PIIM UMR6633, International Institute for Fusion Science, Marseille (France)

    2012-03-12

    We report self-similar properties of periodic structures remarkably organized in the two-parameter space for a two-gene system, described by two-dimensional symmetric map. The map consists of difference equations derived from the chemical reactions for gene expression and regulation. We characterize the system by using Lyapunov exponents and isoperiodic diagrams identifying periodic windows, denominated Arnold tongues and shrimp-shaped structures. Period-adding sequences are observed for both periodic windows. We also identify Fibonacci-type series and Golden ratio for Arnold tongues, and period multiple-of-three windows for shrimps. -- Highlights: ► The existence of noticeable periodic windows has been reported recently for several nonlinear systems. ► The periodic window distributions appear highly organized in two-parameter space. ► We characterize self-similar properties of Arnold tongues and shrimps for a two-gene model. ► We determine the period of the Arnold tongues recognizing a Fibonacci-type sequence. ► We explore self-similar features of the shrimps identifying multiple period-three structures.

  15. A model for short message service advertising avoidance determinants – an Iranian experience

    OpenAIRE

    Shahriar AZIZI

    2013-01-01

    Short Message Service (SMS) advertising is a growing phenomenon in the Iranian marketing industry. Many Iranian companies are intensively interested in SMS advertising for its low cost and comprehensive coverage. The vital challenge in using SMS as an advertising medium is mobile avoidance. In this research, a conceptual model containing six hypotheses was developed and tested. Using 211 self-reporting questionnaires and structural equation modeling (SEM), this study found that self-esteem an...

  16. Age-period-cohort modelling of breast cancer incidence in the Nordic countries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rostgaard, K; Vaeth, M; Holst, H

    2001-01-01

    The Nordic countries have experienced a steady increase in breast cancer incidence throughout the past 35 years. We analysed the incidence in Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden during the period 1958 to 1992 using age-period-cohort models and taking the systematic mammography screening...... in breast cancer incidence seen in the Nordic countries. The widespread practice of neglecting the period effects in age-period-cohort analysis of time trends in breast cancer incidence therefore probably needs reconsideration. A key finding was that Danish women born in the 20th century seem to have been...... exposed to an increasing load of cohort borne breast cancer risk factors not experienced to the same extent by Norwegian women, whereas they were seemingly subjected to the same period effects....

  17. Age-period-cohort modelling of breast cancer incidence in the Nordic countries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rostgaard, K; Vaeth, M; Holst, H

    2001-01-01

    in breast cancer incidence seen in the Nordic countries. The widespread practice of neglecting the period effects in age-period-cohort analysis of time trends in breast cancer incidence therefore probably needs reconsideration. A key finding was that Danish women born in the 20th century seem to have been...... exposed to an increasing load of cohort borne breast cancer risk factors not experienced to the same extent by Norwegian women, whereas they were seemingly subjected to the same period effects.......The Nordic countries have experienced a steady increase in breast cancer incidence throughout the past 35 years. We analysed the incidence in Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden during the period 1958 to 1992 using age-period-cohort models and taking the systematic mammography screening...

  18. HATS-43b, HATS-44b, HATS-45b, and HATS-46b: Four Short-period Transiting Giant Planets in the Neptune–Jupiter Mass Range

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brahm, R.; Hartman, J. D.; Jordán, A.; Bakos, G. Á.; Espinoza, N.; Rabus, M.; Bhatti, W.; Penev, K.; Sarkis, P.; Suc, V.; Csubry, Z.; Bayliss, D.; Bento, J.; Zhou, G.; Mancini, L.; Henning, T.; Ciceri, S.; de Val-Borro, M.; Shectman, S.; Crane, J. D.; Arriagada, P.; Butler, P.; Teske, J.; Thompson, I.; Osip, D.; Díaz, M.; Schmidt, B.; Lázár, J.; Papp, I.; Sári, P.

    2018-03-01

    We report the discovery of four short-period extrasolar planets transiting moderately bright stars from photometric measurements of the HATSouth network coupled to additional spectroscopic and photometric follow-up observations. While the planet masses range from 0.26 to 0.90 {M}{{J}}, the radii are all approximately a Jupiter radii, resulting in a wide range of bulk densities. The orbital period of the planets ranges from 2.7 days to 4.7 days, with HATS-43b having an orbit that appears to be marginally non-circular (e = 0.173 ± 0.089). HATS-44 is notable for having a high metallicity ([{Fe}/{{H}}] = 0.320 ± 0.071). The host stars spectral types range from late F to early K, and all of them are moderately bright (13.3 future detailed follow-up observations. HATS-43b and HATS-46b, with expected transmission signals of 2350 ppm and 1500 ppm, respectively, are particularly well suited targets for atmospheric characterization via transmission spectroscopy. The HATSouth network is operated by a collaboration consisting of Princeton University (PU), the Max Planck Institute für Astronomie (MPIA), the Australian National University (ANU), and the Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile (PUC). The station at Las Campanas Observatory (LCO) of the Carnegie Institute is operated by PU in conjunction with PUC, the station at the High Energy Spectroscopic Survey (H.E.S.S.) site is operated in conjunction with MPIA, and the station at Siding Spring Observatory (SSO) is operated jointly with ANU. This paper includes data gathered with the MPG 2.2 m and ESO 3.6 m telescopes at the ESO Observatory in La Silla. This paper includes data gathered with the 6.5 meter Magellan Telescopes located at Las Campanas Observatory, Chile.

  19. A Tire Model for Off-Highway Vehicle Simulation on Short Wave Irregular Terrain

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Langer, Thomas Heegaard; Kristensen, Lars B; Mouritsen, Ole Ø.

    2010-01-01

    Manufacturers of construction machinery are challenged in several ways concerning dynamic loads. Considering off-highway dump trucks that travel through high amplitude short wave irregular terrain with considerable speed two aspects concerning dynamics are important. The first is the legal...... the tire ground interaction for big off-road tires on short wave irregular terrain. In this paper a simple tire model combining the well known slip theory and a displaced volume approach is presented. A non-gradient optimization routine is applied for parameter identification by minimizing the difference...

  20. Modeling of Short-Circuit-Related Thermal Stress in Aged IGBT Modules

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bahman, Amir Sajjad; Iannuzzo, Francesco; Uhrenfeldt, Christian

    2017-01-01

    In this paper, the thermal stress on bond wires of aged IGBT modules under short-circuit conditions has been studied with respect to different solder delamination levels. To ensure repeatable test conditions, ad-hoc DBC (direct bond copper) samples with delaminated solder layers have been purposely...... fabricated. The temperature distribution produced by such abnormal conditions has been modelled first by means of FEM simulations and then experimentally validated by means of a non-destructive testing technique including an ultra-fast infrared camera. Results demonstrate a significant imbalance...... in the surface temperature distribution, which confirms the hypothesis that short-circuit events produce significantly uneven stresses on bond wires....

  1. Modelling mode choice in short trips - shifting from car to bicycle

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Halldórsdóttir, Katrín; Christensen, Linda; Jensen, Thomas Christian

    2011-01-01

    -economic variables of a representative sample of the population. The investigated sample includes 11,072 observations. The model considers five alternatives (i.e., car driver, car passenger, public transport, walk and obviously bike), for which level of service variables are calculated through assignment procedures...... relevance of the cost for short trips. Expectedly, the selection of bicycle as mode for short trips is positively related to owning a bicycle and negatively linked to owning one or more cars. Urban density has also positive correlation with the selection of sustainable transport modes....

  2. Enhanced stability of car-following model upon incorporation of short-term driving memory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Da-Wei; Shi, Zhong-Ke; Ai, Wen-Huan

    2017-06-01

    Based on the full velocity difference model, a new car-following model is developed to investigate the effect of short-term driving memory on traffic flow in this paper. Short-term driving memory is introduced as the influence factor of driver's anticipation behavior. The stability condition of the newly developed model is derived and the modified Korteweg-de Vries (mKdV) equation is constructed to describe the traffic behavior near the critical point. Via numerical method, evolution of a small perturbation is investigated firstly. The results show that the improvement of this new car-following model over the previous ones lies in the fact that the new model can improve the traffic stability. Starting and breaking processes of vehicles in the signalized intersection are also investigated. The numerical simulations illustrate that the new model can successfully describe the driver's anticipation behavior, and that the efficiency and safety of the vehicles passing through the signalized intersection are improved by considering short-term driving memory.

  3. ARTICLES: Thermohydrodynamic models of the interaction of pulse-periodic radiation with matter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arutyunyan, R. V.; Baranov, V. Yu; Bol'shov, Leonid A.; Malyuta, D. D.; Mezhevov, V. S.; Pis'mennyĭ, V. D.

    1987-02-01

    Experimental and theoretical investigations were made of the processes of drilling and deep melting of metals by pulsed and pulse-periodic laser radiation. Direct photography of the surface revealed molten metal splashing due to interaction with single CO2 laser pulses. A proposed thermohydrodynamic model was used to account for the experimental results and to calculate the optimal parameters of pulse-periodic radiation needed for deep melting. The melt splashing processes were simulated numerically.

  4. A Neural Network Model of the Visual Short-Term Memory

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Anders; Kyllingsbæk, Søren; Hansen, Lars Kai

    2009-01-01

    In this paper a neural network model of Visual Short-Term Memory (VSTM) is presented. The model links closely with Bundesen’s (1990) well-established mathematical theory of visual attention. We evaluate the model’s ability to fit experimental data from a classical whole and partial report study....... Previous statistic models have successfully assessed the spatial distribution of visual attention; our neural network meets this standard and offers a neural interpretation of how objects are consolidated in VSTM at the same time. We hope that in the future, the model will be able to fit temporally...

  5. Reliability modelling for wear out failure period of a single unit system

    OpenAIRE

    Arekar, Kirti; Ailawadi, Satish; Jain, Rinku

    2012-01-01

    The present paper deals with two time-shifted density models for wear out failure period of a single unit system. The study, considered the time-shifted Gamma and Normal distributions. Wear out failures occur as a result of deterioration processes or mechanical wear and its probability of occurrence increases with time. A failure rate as a function of time deceases in an early failure period and it increases in wear out period. Failure rates for time shifted distributions and expression for m...

  6. Short-term profiles of plasma gonadotropin and 17 alpha-hydroxy, 20 beta-dihydroprogesterone levels in the female rainbow trout at the periovulatory period.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zohar, Y; Breton, B; Fostier, A

    1986-11-01

    Individual free-swimming female rainbow trout in which oocytes underwent final stages of germinal vesicle migration, maturation, or ovulation were bled via a dorsal-aortic catheter at frequencies of once every 1, 3, or 4 hr over periods of 9 to 36 hr. Gonadotropin (GtH) and 17 alpha-hydroxy,20 beta-dihydroprogesterone (17 alpha,20 beta-OHP) levels were measured in the plasma samples. GtH levels were elevated and showed wide and progressive daily variations. A high degree of synchronization appeared among the GtH profiles of individual fish. Two distinct daily GtH surges were observed, one at early photophase and the other during the mid-scotophase. The onset of the GtH increases was closely related to the beginning of the photophase and the scotophase, respectively. In females undergoing oocyte maturation or in ovulated females, 17 alpha,20 beta-OHP levels were increasing or high, showing progressive daily fluctuations that were either synchronized with the GtH changes or somewhat phase-shifted in relation to them. These data are discussed in relation to the seasonal changes in the short-term profiles of reproductive hormones in the trout.

  7. GaAsSb/GaAsN short-period superlattices as a capping layer for improved InAs quantum dot-based optoelectronics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Utrilla, A. D.; Ulloa, J. M., E-mail: jmulloa@isom.upm.es; Guzman, A.; Hierro, A. [Institute for Systems based on Optoelectronics and Microtechnology (ISOM) and Departamento de Ingeniería Electrónica, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Ciudad Universitaria s/n, 28040 Madrid (Spain); Reyes, D. F.; González, D.; Ben, T. [Departamento de Ciencia de los Materiales e IM y QI, Universidad de Cádiz, 11510 Puerto Real (Cádiz) (Spain)

    2014-07-28

    The application of a GaAsSb/GaAsN short-period superlattice capping layer (CL) on InAs/GaAs quantum dots (QDs) is shown to be an option for providing improved luminescence properties to this system. Separating both GaAsSb and GaAsN ternaries during the growth in 2 monolayer-thick phases solves the GaAsSbN immiscibility-related problems. Strong fluctuations in the CL composition and strain field as well as in the QD size distribution are significantly reduced, and a more regular CL interface is also obtained. Room-temperature (RT) photoluminescence (PL) is obtained for overall N contents as high as 3%, yielding PL peak wavelengths beyond 1.4 μm in samples with a type-II band alignment. High external quantum efficiency electroluminescence and photocurrent from the QD ground state are also demonstrated at RT in a single QD-layer p-i-n device. Thus, it becomes possible to combine and transfer the complementary benefits of Sb- and N-containing GaAs alloys to InAs QD-based optoelectronics.

  8. Efficient Computation of Multiscale Entropy over Short Biomedical Time Series Based on Linear State-Space Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luca Faes

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The most common approach to assess the dynamical complexity of a time series across multiple temporal scales makes use of the multiscale entropy (MSE and refined MSE (RMSE measures. In spite of their popularity, MSE and RMSE lack an analytical framework allowing their calculation for known dynamic processes and cannot be reliably computed over short time series. To overcome these limitations, we propose a method to assess RMSE for autoregressive (AR stochastic processes. The method makes use of linear state-space (SS models to provide the multiscale parametric representation of an AR process observed at different time scales and exploits the SS parameters to quantify analytically the complexity of the process. The resulting linear MSE (LMSE measure is first tested in simulations, both theoretically to relate the multiscale complexity of AR processes to their dynamical properties and over short process realizations to assess its computational reliability in comparison with RMSE. Then, it is applied to the time series of heart period, arterial pressure, and respiration measured for healthy subjects monitored in resting conditions and during physiological stress. This application to short-term cardiovascular variability documents that LMSE can describe better than RMSE the activity of physiological mechanisms producing biological oscillations at different temporal scales.

  9. Research on Short-Term Wind Power Prediction Based on Combined Forecasting Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhang Chi

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Short-Term wind power forecasting is crucial for power grid since the generated energy of wind farm fluctuates frequently. In this paper, a physical forecasting model based on NWP and a statistical forecasting model with optimized initial value in the method of BP neural network are presented. In order to make full use of the advantages of the models presented and overcome the limitation of the disadvantage, the equal weight model and the minimum variance model are established for wind power prediction. Simulation results show that the combination forecasting model is more precise than single forecasting model and the minimum variance combination model can dynamically adjust weight of each single method, restraining the forecasting error further.

  10. Periodic Properties of 1D FE Discrete Models in High Frequency Dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Żak

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Finite element discrete models of various engineering 1D structures may be considered as structures of certain periodic characteristics. The source of this periodicity comes from the discontinuity of stress/strain field between the elements. This behaviour remains unnoticeable, when low frequency dynamics of these structures is investigated. At high frequency regimes, however, its influence may be strong enough to dominate calculated structural responses distorting or even falsifying them completely. In this paper, certain computational aspects of structural periodicity of 1D FE discrete models are discussed by the authors. In this discussion, the authors focus their attention on an exemplary problem of 1D rod modelled according to the elementary theory.

  11. Theoretical model simulations for the global Thermospheric Mapping Study (TMS) periods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rees, D.; Fuller-Rowell, T. J.

    Theoretical and semiempirical models of the solar UV/EUV and of the geomagnetic driving forces affecting the terrestrial mesosphere and thermosphere have been used to generate a series of representative numerical time-dependent and global models of the thermosphere, for the range of solar and geoamgnetic activity levels which occurred during the three Thermospheric Mapping Study periods. The simulations obtained from these numerical models are compared with observations, and with the results of semiempirical models of the thermosphere. The theoretical models provide a record of the magnitude of the major driving forces which affected the thermosphere during the study periods, and a baseline against which the actual observed structure and dynamics can be compared.

  12. Characterization by Raman scattering, x-ray diffraction, and transmission electron microscopy of (AlAs)m(InAs)m short period superlattices grown by migration enhanced epitaxy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bradshaw, J.; Song, X.J.; Shealy, J.R.

    1992-01-01

    We report growth of (InAs)1(AlAs)1 and (InAs)2(AlAs)2 strained layer superlattices by migration enhanced epitaxy. The samples were grown on InP (001) substrates and characterized by Raman spectroscopy, x-ray diffraction, and transmission electron microscopy. Satellite peaks in the x-ray data...... confirm the intended periodicity and indicate the presence of some disorder in the monolayer sample. The energies of the zone folded and quantum confined optic phonons are in reasonable agreement with calculations based on one-dimensional elastic continuum and linear chain models. Journal of Applied...

  13. On the discretization and control of an SEIR epidemic model with a periodic impulsive vaccination

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alonso-Quesada, S.; De la Sen, M.; Ibeas, A.

    2017-01-01

    This paper deals with the discretization and control of an SEIR epidemic model. Such a model describes the transmission of an infectious disease among a time-varying host population. The model assumes mortality from causes related to the disease. Our study proposes a discretization method including a free-design parameter to be adjusted for guaranteeing the positivity of the resulting discrete-time model. Such a method provides a discrete-time model close to the continuous-time one without the need for the sampling period to be as small as other commonly used discretization methods require. This fact makes possible the design of impulsive vaccination control strategies with less burden of measurements and related computations if one uses the proposed instead of other discretization methods. The proposed discretization method and the impulsive vaccination strategy designed on the resulting discretized model are the main novelties of the paper. The paper includes (i) the analysis of the positivity of the obtained discrete-time SEIR model, (ii) the study of stability of the disease-free equilibrium point of a normalized version of such a discrete-time model and (iii) the existence and the attractivity of a globally asymptotically stable disease-free periodic solution under a periodic impulsive vaccination. Concretely, the exposed and infectious subpopulations asymptotically converge to zero as time tends to infinity while the normalized subpopulations of susceptible and recovered by immunization individuals oscillate in the context of such a solution. Finally, a numerical example illustrates the theoretic results.

  14. Ordered Short-Term Memory Differs in Signers and Speakers: Implications for Models of Short-Term Memory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bavelier, Daphne; Newport, Elissa L.; Hall, Matt; Supalla, Ted; Boutla, Mrim

    2008-01-01

    Capacity limits in linguistic short-term memory (STM) are typically measured with forward span tasks in which participants are asked to recall lists of words in the order presented. Using such tasks, native signers of American Sign Language (ASL) exhibit smaller spans than native speakers ([Boutla, M., Supalla, T., Newport, E. L., & Bavelier, D.…

  15. Effects of a 6-week periodized squat training with or without whole-body vibration upon short-term adaptations in squat strength and body composition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamont, Hugh S; Cramer, Joel T; Bemben, Debra A; Shehab, Randa L; Anderson, Mark A; Bemben, Michael G

    2011-07-01

    variance and analysis of covariance revealed 1RM increased significantly between W1-W3, W3-W7, and W1-W7 for both experimental groups but not for control (p = 0.001, effect size [ES] = 0.237, 1 - β = 0.947). No significant differences were seen for %Δ (p > 0.05). Significant group by trial and group effects were seen for TLBM, SQTV > CON at W7 (p = 0.044). A significant main effect for time was seen for LF%, W0 vs. W7 (p = 0.047). No other significant differences were seen (p > 0.05). "Practical trends" were seen favoring "short-term" neuromuscular adaptations for the SQTV group during the first 3 weeks (p = 0.10, ES = 0.157, 1 - β = 0.443, mean diff; SQTV week 3 4.72 kg > CON and 2.53 kg > SQT). Differences in motor unit activation patterns, hypertrophic responses, and dietary intake during the training period could account for the trends seen.

  16. Modeling the Evolution of the System IV Period of the Io Torus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coffin, D. A.; Delamere, P. A.

    2017-12-01

    The response of the Io plasma torus to superthermal electron modulation and volcanic eruptions is studied using a physical chemistry and radial/azimuthal transport model (Copper et al., 2016). The model includes radial and azimuthal transport, latitudinally-averaged physical chemistry, and prescribed System III superthermal electron modulation following Steffl et al., [2008]. Volcanic eruptions are modelled as a temporal Gaussian enhancement (e.g., 2x) of the neutral source rate and hot electron fraction (e.g., <1%). However, we adopt an alternative approach for the Steffl et al., [2008] System IV electron modulation. Radially-dependent subcorotation is prescribed, consistent with observations [Brown, 1994; Thomas et al., 2001], as well as a hot electron modulation proportional to the radial flux tube content gradient. Coupling hot electron modulation to radial transport and subcorotation, we seek to analyze magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling. We find that the model produces a radially-independent periodicity and that eruptions can alter the modeled period, consistent with multi-epoch observations of a variable System IV. This periodicity remains consistent with the prescribed subcorotation period at L = 6.3.

  17. Mating behavior, population growth, and the operational sex ratio: a periodic two-sex model approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jenouvrier, Stéphanie; Caswell, Hal; Barbraud, Christophe; Weimerskirch, Henri

    2010-06-01

    We present a new approach to modeling two-sex populations, using periodic, nonlinear two-sex matrix models. The models project the population growth rate, the population structure, and any ratio of interest (e.g., operational sex ratio). The periodic formulation permits inclusion of highly seasonal behavioral events. A periodic product of the seasonal matrices describes annual population dynamics. The model is nonlinear because mating probability depends on the structure of the population. To study how the vital rates influence population growth rate, population structure, and operational sex ratio, we used sensitivity analysis of frequency-dependent nonlinear models. In nonlinear two-sex models the vital rates affect growth rate directly and also indirectly through effects on the population structure. The indirect effects can sometimes overwhelm the direct effects and are revealed only by nonlinear analysis. We find that the sensitivity of the population growth rate to female survival is negative for the emperor penguin, a species with highly seasonal breeding behavior. This result could not occur in linear models because changes in population structure have no effect on per capita reproduction. Our approach is applicable to ecological and evolutionary studies of any species in which males and females interact in a seasonal environment.

  18. Objectives for next generation of practical short-range atmospheric dispersion models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Olesen, H.R.; Mikkelsen, T.

    1992-01-01

    The proceedings contains papers from the workshop ''Objectives for Next Generation of Practical Short-Range Atmospheric Dispersion Models''. They deal with two types of models, namely models for regulatory purposes and models for real-time applications. The workshop was the result of an action started in 1991 for increased cooperation and harmonization within atmospheric dispersion modelling. The focus of the workshop was on the management of model development and the definition of model objectives, rather than on detailed model contents. It was the intention to identify actions that can be taken in order to improve the development and use of atmospheric dispersion models. The papers in the proceedings deal with various topics within the broad spectrum of matters related to up-to-date practical models, such as their scientific basis, requirements for model input and output, meteorological preprocessing, standardisation within modelling, electronic information exchange as a potentially useful tool, model evaluation and data bases for model evaluation. In addition to the papers, the proceedings contain summaries of the discussions at the workshop. These summaries point to a number of recommended actions which can be taken in order to improve ''modelling culture''. (AB)

  19. Short-Term Load Forecasting Model Based on Quantum Elman Neural Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhisheng Zhang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Short-term load forecasting model based on quantum Elman neural networks was constructed in this paper. The quantum computation and Elman feedback mechanism were integrated into quantum Elman neural networks. Quantum computation can effectively improve the approximation capability and the information processing ability of the neural networks. Quantum Elman neural networks have not only the feedforward connection but also the feedback connection. The feedback connection between the hidden nodes and the context nodes belongs to the state feedback in the internal system, which has formed specific dynamic memory performance. Phase space reconstruction theory is the theoretical basis of constructing the forecasting model. The training samples are formed by means of K-nearest neighbor approach. Through the example simulation, the testing results show that the model based on quantum Elman neural networks is better than the model based on the quantum feedforward neural network, the model based on the conventional Elman neural network, and the model based on the conventional feedforward neural network. So the proposed model can effectively improve the prediction accuracy. The research in the paper makes a theoretical foundation for the practical engineering application of the short-term load forecasting model based on quantum Elman neural networks.

  20. Urban flood return period assessment through rainfall-flood response modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murla Tuyls, Damian; Thorndahl, Søren

    2017-04-01

    Intense rainfall can often cause severe floods, especially in urbanized areas, where population density or large impermeable areas are found. In this context, floods can generate a direct impact in a social-environmental-economic viewpoint. Traditionally, in design of Urban Drainage Systems (UDS), correlation between return period (RP) of a given rainfall and RP of its consequent flood has been assumed to be linear (e.g. DS/EN752 (2008)). However, this is not always the case. Complex UDS, where diverse hydraulic infrastructures are often found, increase the heterogeneity of system response, which may cause an alteration of the mentioned correlation. Consequently, reliability on future urban planning, design and resilience against floods may be also affected by this misassumption. In this study, an assessment of surface flood RP across rainfall RP has been carried out at Lystrup, a urbanized catchment area of 440ha and 10.400inhab. located in Jutland (Denmark), which has received the impact of several pluvial flooding in the last recent years. A historical rainfall dataset from the last 35 years from two different rain gauges located at 2 and 10 km from the study area has been provided by the Danish Wastewater Pollution Committee and the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI). The most extreme 25 rainfall events have been selected through a two-step multi-criteria procedure, ensuring an adequate variability of rainfall, from extreme high peak storms with a short duration to moderate rainfall with longer duration. In addition, a coupled 1D/2D surface and network UDS model of the catchment area developed in an integrated MIKE URBAN and MIKE Flood model (DHI 2014), considering both permeable and impermeable areas, in combination with a DTM (2x2m res.) has been used to study and assess in detail flood RP. Results show an ambiguous relation between rainfall RP and flood response. Local flood levels, flood area and volume RP estimates should therefore not be neglected in

  1. Very slow classical Cepheids - Theoretical models with periods longer than 50 days

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carson, T. R.; Stothers, R. B.

    1984-01-01

    Systematics of the light curves of classical Cepheids with the longest known periods have been investigated with the help of full-amplitude models of pulsating stellar envelopes. For periods exceeding about 60 days, flat-topped light curves of the S Vul type are found to replace the smooth, asymmetric light curves characteristic of the slightly faster Cepheids. Predicted light and velocity amplitudes (although not the predicted radius amplitudes) agree well with observations. Variables with fluctuating light minima are observed to lie well off the mean period-luminosity relation, as are a few other (more stable?) variables with similarly long periods. The explanation for the long periods is probably low effective temperature rather than a low stellar mass. Because of the abnormal slowness of the classical Cepheids with periods longer than about 100 days, it is recommended that these variables not be used to calibrate the mean period-luminosity relation. Analogies between the slow classical Cepheids and the slow Population II Cepheids are drawn.

  2. Periodic clustering in the spectrum of quasiperiodic Kronig-Penney models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baake, M.; Joseph, D.; Kramer, P.

    1992-08-01

    The continuous Schrödinger equation is discussed for the Fibonacci chain and its generalizations and compared to the tight-binding approximation. For Kronig-Penney like models, the resulting pseudo spectrum of the well-known trace map has Cantor like structures, but a subclass of models additionally shows periodic clustering with respect to the wave number k. The clusters appear at the zeros of the invariant of the trace map as a function of k. From a matrix generalization of the trace map we compute the forward scattering of the chain and find the same periodic clustering. We briefly discuss how these results extend to more general non-periodic examples.

  3. A periodic two-patch SIS model with time delay and transport-related infection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Junli; Bai, Zhenguo; Zhang, Tailei

    2018-01-21

    In this paper, we propose a periodic SIS epidemic model with time delay and transport-related infection in a patchy environment. The basic reproduction number R 0 is derived which determines the global dynamics of the model system: if R 0   1. Numerical simulations are performed to confirm the analytical results and to explore the dependence of R 0 on the transport-related infection parameters and the amplitude of fluctuations. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Mathematical Model of Equipment Unit Reliability for Determination of Optimum Overhaul Periods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. A. Pasiouk

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper proposes a mathematical model of the equipment unit reliability with due account of operational mode effect and main influencing factors.Its application contributes to reduction of operating costs, optimization of overhaul periods, prolongation of life-service and rational usage of fleet resource.

  5. Systematic design of a sawtooth period feedback controller using a Kadomtsev-Porcelli sawtooth model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Witvoet, G.; Baar, M.R. de; Westerhof, E.; Steinbuch, M.; Doelman, N.J.

    2011-01-01

    A systematic methodology for structured design of feedback controllers for the sawtooth period is presented, based on dedicated identification of the sawtooth dynamics. Therefore, a combined Kadomtsev-Porcelli model of a sawtoothing plasma actuated by an electron cyclotron current drive system has

  6. Modeling and analysis of periodic orbits around a contact binary asteroid

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Feng, J.; Noomen, R.; Visser, P.N.A.M.; Yuan, J.

    2015-01-01

    The existence and characteristics of periodic orbits (POs) in the vicinity of a contact binary asteroid are investigated with an averaged spherical harmonics model. A contact binary asteroid consists of two components connected to each other, resulting in a highly bifurcated shape. Here, it is

  7. Multi-Period Dynamic Optimization for Large-Scale Differential-Algebraic Process Models under Uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ian D. Washington

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available A technique for optimizing large-scale differential-algebraic process models under uncertainty using a parallel embedded model approach is developed in this article. A combined multi-period multiple-shooting discretization scheme is proposed, which creates a significant number of independent numerical integration tasks for each shooting interval over all scenario/period realizations. Each independent integration task is able to be solved in parallel as part of the function evaluations within a gradient-based non-linear programming solver. The focus of this paper is on demonstrating potential computation performance improvement when the embedded differential-algebraic equation model solution of the multi-period discretization is implemented in parallel. We assess our parallel dynamic optimization approach on two case studies; the first is a benchmark literature problem, while the second is a large-scale air separation problem that considers a robust set-point transition under parametric uncertainty. Results indicate that focusing on the speed-up of the embedded model evaluation can significantly decrease the overall computation time; however, as the multi-period formulation grows with increased realizations, the computational burden quickly shifts to the internal computation performed within the non-linear programming algorithm. This highlights the need for further decomposition, structure exploitation and parallelization within the non-linear programming algorithm and is the subject for further investigation.

  8. Periodic solution of a stochastic SIRS epidemic model with seasonal variation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Manli; Lin, Yuguo

    2018-12-01

    In this paper, we consider a stochastic SIRS epidemic model with seasonal variation and saturated incidence. Firstly, we obtain the threshold of stochastic system which determines whether the epidemic occurs or not. Secondly, we prove that there is a non-trivial positive periodic solution if [Formula: see text].

  9. Travelling waves in models of neural tissue: from localised structures to periodic waves

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meijer, Hil Gaétan Ellart; Coombes, Stephen

    2014-01-01

    We consider travelling waves (fronts, pulses and periodics) in spatially extended one dimensional neural field models. We demonstrate for an excitatory field with linear adaptation that, in addition to an expected stable pulse solution, a stable anti-pulse can exist. Varying the adaptation strength

  10. Short-Term Wind Speed Prediction Using EEMD-LSSVM Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aiqing Kang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Hybrid Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD and Least Square Support Vector Machine (LSSVM is proposed to improve short-term wind speed forecasting precision. The EEMD is firstly utilized to decompose the original wind speed time series into a set of subseries. Then the LSSVM models are established to forecast these subseries. Partial autocorrelation function is adopted to analyze the inner relationships between the historical wind speed series in order to determine input variables of LSSVM models for prediction of every subseries. Finally, the superposition principle is employed to sum the predicted values of every subseries as the final wind speed prediction. The performance of hybrid model is evaluated based on six metrics. Compared with LSSVM, Back Propagation Neural Networks (BP, Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA, combination of Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD with LSSVM, and hybrid EEMD with ARIMA models, the wind speed forecasting results show that the proposed hybrid model outperforms these models in terms of six metrics. Furthermore, the scatter diagrams of predicted versus actual wind speed and histograms of prediction errors are presented to verify the superiority of the hybrid model in short-term wind speed prediction.

  11. Short-Term Wind Speed Hybrid Forecasting Model Based on Bias Correcting Study and Its Application

    OpenAIRE

    Mingfei Niu; Shaolong Sun; Jie Wu; Yuanlei Zhang

    2015-01-01

    The accuracy of wind speed forecasting is becoming increasingly important to improve and optimize renewable wind power generation. In particular, reliable short-term wind speed forecasting can enable model predictive control of wind turbines and real-time optimization of wind farm operation. However, due to the strong stochastic nature and dynamic uncertainty of wind speed, the forecasting of wind speed data using different patterns is difficult. This paper proposes a novel combination bias c...

  12. A Novel Hybrid Model for Short-Term Forecasting in PV Power Generation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuan-Kang Wu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The increasing use of solar power as a source of electricity has led to increased interest in forecasting its power output over short-time horizons. Short-term forecasts are needed for operational planning, switching sources, programming backup, reserve usage, and peak load matching. However, the output of a photovoltaic (PV system is influenced by irradiation, cloud cover, and other weather conditions. These factors make it difficult to conduct short-term PV output forecasting. In this paper, an experimental database of solar power output, solar irradiance, air, and module temperature data has been utilized. It includes data from the Green Energy Office Building in Malaysia, the Taichung Thermal Plant of Taipower, and National Penghu University. Based on the historical PV power and weather data provided in the experiment, all factors that influence photovoltaic-generated energy are discussed. Moreover, five types of forecasting modules were developed and utilized to predict the one-hour-ahead PV output. They include the ARIMA, SVM, ANN, ANFIS, and the combination models using GA algorithm. Forecasting results show the high precision and efficiency of this combination model. Therefore, the proposed model is suitable for ensuring the stable operation of a photovoltaic generation system.

  13. Exact solutions to plaquette Ising models with free and periodic boundaries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mueller, Marco; Johnston, Desmond A.; Janke, Wolfhard

    2017-01-01

    An anisotropic limit of the 3d plaquette Ising model, in which the plaquette couplings in one direction were set to zero, was solved for free boundary conditions by Suzuki (1972) , who later dubbed it the fuki-nuke, or “no-ceiling”, model. Defining new spin variables as the product of nearest-neighbour spins transforms the Hamiltonian into that of a stack of (standard) 2d Ising models and reveals the planar nature of the magnetic order, which is also present in the fully isotropic 3d plaquette model. More recently, the solution of the fuki-nuke model was discussed for periodic boundary conditions, which require a different approach to defining the product spin transformation, by Castelnovo et al. (2010) . We clarify the exact relation between partition functions with free and periodic boundary conditions expressed in terms of original and product spin variables for the 2d plaquette and 3d fuki-nuke models, noting that the differences are already present in the 1d Ising model. In addition, we solve the 2d plaquette Ising model with helical boundary conditions. The various exactly solved examples illustrate how correlations can be induced in finite systems as a consequence of the choice of boundary conditions.

  14. A Probabilistic Short-Term Water Demand Forecasting Model Based on the Markov Chain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francesca Gagliardi

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a short-term water demand forecasting method based on the use of the Markov chain. This method provides estimates of future demands by calculating probabilities that the future demand value will fall within pre-assigned intervals covering the expected total variability. More specifically, two models based on homogeneous and non-homogeneous Markov chains were developed and presented. These models, together with two benchmark models (based on artificial neural network and naïve methods, were applied to three real-life case studies for the purpose of forecasting the respective water demands from 1 to 24 h ahead. The results obtained show that the model based on a homogeneous Markov chain provides more accurate short-term forecasts than the one based on a non-homogeneous Markov chain, which is in line with the artificial neural network model. Both Markov chain models enable probabilistic information regarding the stochastic demand forecast to be easily obtained.

  15. Statistical Models for Tornado Climatology: Long and Short-Term Views.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elsner, James B; Jagger, Thomas H; Fricker, Tyler

    2016-01-01

    This paper estimates regional tornado risk from records of past events using statistical models. First, a spatial model is fit to the tornado counts aggregated in counties with terms that control for changes in observational practices over time. Results provide a long-term view of risk that delineates the main tornado corridors in the United States where the expected annual rate exceeds two tornadoes per 10,000 square km. A few counties in the Texas Panhandle and central Kansas have annual rates that exceed four tornadoes per 10,000 square km. Refitting the model after removing the least damaging tornadoes from the data (EF0) produces a similar map but with the greatest tornado risk shifted south and eastward. Second, a space-time model is fit to the counts aggregated in raster cells with terms that control for changes in climate factors. Results provide a short-term view of risk. The short-term view identifies a shift of tornado activity away from the Ohio Valley under El Niño conditions and away from the Southeast under positive North Atlantic oscillation conditions. The combined predictor effects on the local rates is quantified by fitting the model after leaving out the year to be predicted from the data. The models provide state-of-the-art views of tornado risk that can be used by government agencies, the insurance industry, and the general public.

  16. Groundwater flow modelling of periods with periglacial and glacial climate conditions - Laxemar

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vidstrand, Patrik (TerraSolve AB, Floda (Sweden)); Rhen, Ingvar (SWECO Environment AB, Falun (Sweden)); Zugec, Nada (Bergab, Goeteborg (Sweden))

    2010-12-15

    As a part of the license application for a final repository for spent nuclear fuel at Forsmark, the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) has undertaken a series of groundwater flow modelling studies. These represent time periods with different hydraulic conditions and the simulations carried out contribute to the overall evaluation of the repository design and long-term radiological safety. This report is concerned with the modelling of a repository at the Laxemar-Simpevarp site during periglacial and glacial climate conditions as a comparison to corresponding modelling carried out for Forsmark /Vidstrand et al. 2010/. The groundwater flow modelling study reported here comprises a coupled thermal-hydraulic-chemical (T-H-C) analysis of periods with periglacial and glacial climate conditions. The objective of the report is to provide bounding hydrogeological estimates at different stages during glaciation and deglaciation of a glacial cycle at Laxemar. Three cases with different climate conditions are analysed here: (i) Temperate case, (ii) Glacial case without permafrost, and (iii) Glacial case with permafrost. The glacial periods are transient and encompass approximately 13,000 years. The simulation results comprise pressures, Darcy fluxes, and water salinities, as well as advective transport performance measures obtained by particle tracking such as flow path lengths, travel times and flow-related transport resistances. The modelling is accompanied by a sensitivity study that addresses the impact of the following matters: the direction of the ice sheet advance and the bedrock hydraulic and transport properties

  17. A location-routing problem model with multiple periods and fuzzy demands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Nadizadeh

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper puts forward a dynamic capacitated location-routing problem with fuzzy demands (DCLRP-FD. It is given on input a set of identical vehicles (each having a capacity, a fixed cost and availability level, a set of depots with restricted capacities and opening costs, a set of customers with fuzzy demands, and a planning horizon with multiple periods. The problem consists of determining the depots to be opened only in the first period of the planning horizon, the customers and the vehicles to be assigned to each opened depot, and performing the routes that may be changed in each time period due to fuzzy demands. A fuzzy chance-constrained programming (FCCP model has been designed using credibility theory and a hybrid heuristic algorithm with four phases is presented in order to solve the problem. To obtain the best value of the fuzzy parameters of the model and show the influence of the availability level of vehicles on final solution, some computational experiments are carried out. The validity of the model is then evaluated in contrast with CLRP-FD's models in the literature. The results indicate that the model and the proposed algorithm are robust and could be used in real world problems.

  18. A Hand-Foot-and-Mouth Disease Model with Periodic Transmission Rate in Wenzhou, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yeting Zhu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available We establish an SEIQRS epidemic model with periodic transmission rate to investigate the spread of seasonal HFMD in Wenzhou. The value of this study lies in two aspects. Mathematically, we show that the global dynamics of the HFMD model can be governed by its reproduction number R0; if R01, the model has at least one positive periodic solution and is uniformly persistent, which indicates that HFMD becomes an endemic disease. Epidemiologically, based on the statistical data of HFMD in Wenzhou, we find that the HFMD becomes an endemic disease and will break out in Wenzhou. One of the most interesting findings is that, for controlling the HFMD spread, we must increase the quarantined rate or decrease the treatment cycle.

  19. Exponential stabilization and synchronization for fuzzy model of memristive neural networks by periodically intermittent control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Shiju; Li, Chuandong; Huang, Tingwen

    2016-03-01

    The problem of exponential stabilization and synchronization for fuzzy model of memristive neural networks (MNNs) is investigated by using periodically intermittent control in this paper. Based on the knowledge of memristor and recurrent neural network, the model of MNNs is formulated. Some novel and useful stabilization criteria and synchronization conditions are then derived by using the Lyapunov functional and differential inequality techniques. It is worth noting that the methods used in this paper are also applied to fuzzy model for complex networks and general neural networks. Numerical simulations are also provided to verify the effectiveness of theoretical results. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Exact solutions to plaquette Ising models with free and periodic boundaries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marco Mueller

    2017-01-01

    We clarify the exact relation between partition functions with free and periodic boundary conditions expressed in terms of original and product spin variables for the 2d plaquette and 3d fuki-nuke models, noting that the differences are already present in the 1d Ising model. In addition, we solve the 2d plaquette Ising model with helical boundary conditions. The various exactly solved examples illustrate how correlations can be induced in finite systems as a consequence of the choice of boundary conditions.

  1. A short-term model of COPD identifies a role for mast cell tryptase

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beckett, Emma L.; Stevens, Richard L.; Jarnicki, Andrew G.; Kim, Richard Y.; Hanish, Irwan; Hansbro, Nicole G.; Deane, Andrew; Keely, Simon; Horvat, Jay C.; Yang, Ming; Oliver, Brian G.; van Rooijen, Nico; Inman, Mark D.; Adachi, Roberto; Soberman, Roy J.; Hamadi, Sahar; Wark, Peter A.; Foster, Paul S.; Hansbro, Philip M.

    2013-01-01

    Background Cigarette smoke-induced chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a life-threatening inflammatory disorder of the lung. The development of effective therapies for COPD has been hampered by the lack of an animal model that mimics the human disease in a short time-frame. Objectives To create an early onset mouse model of cigarette smoke-induced COPD that develops the hallmark features of the human condition in a short time-frame. To use this model to better understand pathogenesis and the roles of macrophages and mast cells (MCs) in COPD. Methods Tightly controlled amounts of cigarette smoke were delivered to the airways of mice, and the development of the pathological features of COPD was assessed. The roles of macrophages and MC tryptase in pathogenesis were evaluated using depletion and in vitro studies and MC protease-6 deficient mice. Results After just 8 weeks of smoke exposure, wild-type mice developed chronic inflammation, mucus hypersecretion, airway remodeling, emphysema, and reduced lung function. These characteristic features of COPD were glucocorticoid-resistant and did not spontaneously resolve. Systemic effects on skeletal muscle and the heart, and increased susceptibility to respiratory infections also were observed. Macrophages and tryptase-expressing MCs were required for the development of COPD. Recombinant MC tryptase induced pro-inflammatory responses from cultured macrophages. Conclusion A short-term mouse model of cigarette smoke-induced COPD was developed in which the characteristic features of the disease were induced more rapidly than existing models. The model can be used to better understand COPD pathogenesis, and we show a requirement for macrophages and tryptase-expressing MCs. PMID:23380220

  2. A multi-model intercomparison of halogenated very short-lived substances (TransCom-VSLS): linking oceanic emissions and tropospheric transport for a reconciled estimate of the stratospheric source gas injection of bromine

    OpenAIRE

    Hossaini, R.; Patra, P. K.; Leeson, A. A.; Krysztofiak, G.; Abraham, N. L.; Andrews, S. J.; Archibald, A. T.; Aschmann, J.; Atlas, E. L.; Belikov, D. A.; Bonisch, H.; Carpenter, L. J.; Dhomse, S.; Dorf, M.; Engel, A.

    2016-01-01

    The first concerted multi-model intercomparison of halogenated very short-lived substances (VSLS) has been performed, within the framework of the ongoing Atmospheric Tracer Transport Model Intercomparison Project (TransCom). Eleven global models or model variants participated (nine chemical transport models and two chemistry–climate models) by simulating the major natural bromine VSLS, bromoform (CHBr3) and dibromomethane (CH2Br2), over a 20-year period (1993–2012). Except f...

  3. Short-term spheroid culture of primary colorectal cancer cells as an in vitro model for personalizing cancer medicine

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jeppesen, Maria; Hagel, Grith; Glenthoj, Anders

    2017-01-01

    Chemotherapy treatment of cancer remains a challenge due to the molecular and functional heterogeneity displayed by tumours originating from the same cell type. The pronounced heterogeneity makes it difficult for oncologists to devise an effective therapeutic strategy for the patient. One approach...... for increasing treatment efficacy is to test the chemosensitivity of cancer cells obtained from the patient's tumour. 3D culture represents a promising method for modelling patient tumours in vitro. The aim of this study was therefore to evaluate how closely short-term spheroid cultures of primary colorectal...... cancer cells resemble the original tumour. Colorectal cancer cells were isolated from human tumour tissue and cultured as spheroids. Spheroid cultures were established with a high success rate and remained viable for at least 10 days. The spheroids exhibited significant growth over a period of 7 days...

  4. Long-term earthquake forecasts based on the epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS model for short-term clustering

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiancang Zhuang

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Based on the ETAS (epidemic-type aftershock sequence model, which is used for describing the features of short-term clustering of earthquake occurrence, this paper presents some theories and techniques related to evaluating the probability distribution of the maximum magnitude in a given space-time window, where the Gutenberg-Richter law for earthquake magnitude distribution cannot be directly applied. It is seen that the distribution of the maximum magnitude in a given space-time volume is determined in the longterm by the background seismicity rate and the magnitude distribution of the largest events in each earthquake cluster. The techniques introduced were applied to the seismicity in the Japan region in the period from 1926 to 2009. It was found that the regions most likely to have big earthquakes are along the Tohoku (northeastern Japan Arc and the Kuril Arc, both with much higher probabilities than the offshore Nankai and Tokai regions.

  5. Qualitative analysis of an integro-differential equation model of periodic chemotherapy

    KAUST Repository

    Jain, Harsh Vardhan

    2012-12-01

    An existing model of tumor growth that accounts for cell cycle arrest and cell death induced by chemotherapy is extended to simulate the response to treatment of a tumor growing in vivo. The tumor is assumed to undergo logistic growth in the absence of therapy, and treatment is administered periodically rather than continuously. Necessary and sufficient conditions for the global stability of the cancer-free equilibrium are derived and conditions under which the system evolves to periodic solutions are determined. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Short-Term Forecasting Models for Photovoltaic Plants: Analytical versus Soft-Computing Techniques

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudio Monteiro

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available We present and compare two short-term statistical forecasting models for hourly average electric power production forecasts of photovoltaic (PV plants: the analytical PV power forecasting model (APVF and the multiplayer perceptron PV forecasting model (MPVF. Both models use forecasts from numerical weather prediction (NWP tools at the location of the PV plant as well as the past recorded values of PV hourly electric power production. The APVF model consists of an original modeling for adjusting irradiation data of clear sky by an irradiation attenuation index, combined with a PV power production attenuation index. The MPVF model consists of an artificial neural network based model (selected among a large set of ANN optimized with genetic algorithms, GAs. The two models use forecasts from the same NWP tool as inputs. The APVF and MPVF models have been applied to a real-life case study of a grid-connected PV plant using the same data. Despite the fact that both models are quite different, they achieve very similar results, with forecast horizons covering all the daylight hours of the following day, which give a good perspective of their applicability for PV electric production sale bids to electricity markets.

  7. Modelling and forecasting the global financial crisis: Initial findings using heterosckedastic log-periodic models

    OpenAIRE

    Dean Fantazzini

    2010-01-01

    The financial crisis of 2007-2009 has begun in July 2007 when a loss of confidence by investors in the value of securitized mortgages in the United States resulted in a liquidity crisis. World stock markets peaked in October 2007 and then entered a period of high volatility which culminated with the market crashes in September and October 2008. Since March 2009, the world stock markets have rebounded, but strong uncertainties still remain. In order to get more insights into the current world ...

  8. Modelling short and long-term risks in power markets. Empirical evidence from Nord Pool

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nomikos, Nikos K.; Soldatos, Orestes A.

    2010-01-01

    In this paper we propose a three-factor spike model that accounts for different speeds of mean reversion between normal and spiky shocks in the Scandinavian power market. In this model both short and long-run factors are unobservable and are hence estimated as latent variables using the Kalman filter. The proposed model has several advantages. First, it seems to capture in a parsimonious way the most important risks that practitioners face in the market, such as spike risk, short-term risk and long-term risk. Second, it explains the seasonal risk premium observed in the market and improves the fit between theoretical and observed forward prices, particularly for long-dated forward contracts. Finally, closed-form solutions for forward contracts, derived from the model, are consistent with the fact that the correlation between contracts of different maturities is imperfect. The resulting model is very promising, providing a very useful policy analysis and financial engineering tool to market participants for risk management and derivative pricing particularly for long-dated contracts. (author)

  9. Mathematical Model of Electromagnetic Transient for Superconducting Short-Circuit Current Limiter

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manusov V.Z.

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available At present on the basis of significant achievements in the field of high-temperature superconductivity more and more applications of this phenomenon appear in the electric power industry, in particular superconducting current limiters. To investigate current limitation process in electrical networks containing superconducting current limiter it is extremely important to evaluate the electrodynamic and thermal effects of the short-circuit current at any time. The existing superconducting current limiters mathematical models don't consider the inertia of the device transition from the superconducting state to the conducting one. It is necessary to develop the mathematical model for the electromagnetic transient process that can adequately simulate the superconducting current limiter at any time point, taking into account its parameters in the normal and emergency modes and also to describe these parameters dynamics during the process of current limitation. The proposed mathematical model allows to simulate the changing inertia of the superconducting current limiter inductive reactance, to analytically describe the electromagnetic transient process, and also to evaluate the electrodynamic and thermal effects of short-circuit current in networks with superconducting current limiter. The important feature of the mathematical model is the consideration of the increase rate (inertia of the inductive reactance with respect to the external network. Also the model allows taking into account the initial and final values of the inductance of a superconducting current limiter before and after the end of the electromagnetic transient respectively.

  10. Short-term droughts forecast using Markov chain model in Victoria, Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahmat, Siti Nazahiyah; Jayasuriya, Niranjali; Bhuiyan, Muhammed A.

    2017-07-01

    A comprehensive risk management strategy for dealing with drought should include both short-term and long-term planning. The objective of this paper is to present an early warning method to forecast drought using the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) and a non-homogeneous Markov chain model. A model such as this is useful for short-term planning. The developed method has been used to forecast droughts at a number of meteorological monitoring stations that have been regionalised into six (6) homogenous clusters with similar drought characteristics based on SPI. The non-homogeneous Markov chain model was used to estimate drought probabilities and drought predictions up to 3 months ahead. The drought severity classes defined using the SPI were computed at a 12-month time scale. The drought probabilities and the predictions were computed for six clusters that depict similar drought characteristics in Victoria, Australia. Overall, the drought severity class predicted was quite similar for all the clusters, with the non-drought class probabilities ranging from 49 to 57 %. For all clusters, the near normal class had a probability of occurrence varying from 27 to 38 %. For the more moderate and severe classes, the probabilities ranged from 2 to 13 % and 3 to 1 %, respectively. The developed model predicted drought situations 1 month ahead reasonably well. However, 2 and 3 months ahead predictions should be used with caution until the models are developed further.

  11. Kinetic modeling of the purging of activated carbon after short term methyl iodide loading

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Friedrich, V.; Lux, I.

    1991-01-01

    A bimolecular reaction model containing the physico-chemical parameters of the adsorption and desorption was developed earlier to describe the kinetics of methyl iodide retention by activated carbon adsorber. Both theoretical model and experimental investigations postulated constant upstream methyl iodide concentration till the maximum break-through. The work reported here includes the extension of the theoretical model to the general case when the concentration of the challenging gas may change in time. The effect of short term loading followed by purging with air, and an impulse-like increase in upstream gas concentration has been simulated. The case of short term loading and subsequent purging has been experimentally studied to validate the model. The investigations were carried out on non-impregnated activated carbon. A 4 cm deep carbon bed had been challenged by methyl iodide for 30, 90, 120 and 180 min and then purged with air, downstream methyl iodide concentration had been measured continuously. The main characteristics of the observed downstream concentration curves (time and slope of break-through, time and amplitude of maximum values) showed acceptable agreement with those predicted by the model

  12. Swarm Intelligence-Based Hybrid Models for Short-Term Power Load Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jianzhou Wang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Swarm intelligence (SI is widely and successfully applied in the engineering field to solve practical optimization problems because various hybrid models, which are based on the SI algorithm and statistical models, are developed to further improve the predictive abilities. In this paper, hybrid intelligent forecasting models based on the cuckoo search (CS as well as the singular spectrum analysis (SSA, time series, and machine learning methods are proposed to conduct short-term power load prediction. The forecasting performance of the proposed models is augmented by a rolling multistep strategy over the prediction horizon. The test results are representative of the out-performance of the SSA and CS in tuning the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA and support vector regression (SVR in improving load forecasting, which indicates that both the SSA-based data denoising and SI-based intelligent optimization strategy can effectively improve the model’s predictive performance. Additionally, the proposed CS-SSA-SARIMA and CS-SSA-SVR models provide very impressive forecasting results, demonstrating their strong robustness and universal forecasting capacities in terms of short-term power load prediction 24 hours in advance.

  13. A nonlocal and periodic reaction-diffusion-advection model of a single phytoplankton species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Rui; Zhao, Xiao-Qiang

    2016-02-01

    In this article, we are concerned with a nonlocal reaction-diffusion-advection model which describes the evolution of a single phytoplankton species in a eutrophic vertical water column where the species relies solely on light for its metabolism. The new feature of our modeling equation lies in that the incident light intensity and the death rate are assumed to be time periodic with a common period. We first establish a threshold type result on the global dynamics of this model in terms of the basic reproduction number R0. Then we derive various characterizations of R0 with respect to the vertical turbulent diffusion rate, the sinking or buoyant rate and the water column depth, respectively, which in turn give rather precise conditions to determine whether the phytoplankton persist or become extinct. Our theoretical results not only extend the existing ones for the time-independent case, but also reveal new interesting effects of the modeling parameters and the time-periodic heterogeneous environment on persistence and extinction of the phytoplankton species, and thereby suggest important implications for phytoplankton growth control.

  14. Periodic and chaotic psychological stress variations as predicted by a social support buffered response model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Field, Richard J.; Gallas, Jason A. C.; Schuldberg, David

    2017-08-01

    Recent work has introduced social dynamic models of people's stress-related processes, some including amelioration of stress symptoms by support from others. The effects of support may be ;direct;, depending only on the level of support, or ;buffering;, depending on the product of the level of support and level of stress. We focus here on the nonlinear buffering term and use a model involving three variables (and 12 control parameters), including stress as perceived by the individual, physical and psychological symptoms, and currently active social support. This model is quantified by a set of three nonlinear differential equations governing its stationary-state stability, temporal evolution (sometimes oscillatory), and how each variable affects the others. Chaos may appear with periodic forcing of an environmental stress parameter. Here we explore this model carefully as the strength and amplitude of this forcing, and an important psychological parameter relating to self-kindling in the stress response, are varied. Three significant observations are made: 1. There exist many complex but orderly regions of periodicity and chaos, 2. there are nested regions of increasing number of peaks per cycle that may cascade to chaos, and 3. there are areas where more than one state, e.g., a period-2 oscillation and chaos, coexist for the same parameters; which one is reached depends on initial conditions.

  15. Long-period modelling of MEDNET waveforms for the December 13, 1990 Eastern Sicily earthquake

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. A. Pino

    1995-06-01

    Full Text Available The availability of broad-band digital data allow "the analysis" of the seismic signal in the low-noise frequency band for structural and seismic source studies, We model complete seismograms -surface and body waves - for the December 13, 1 990, Eastern Sicily earthquake, recorded at regional distances on the MEDNET stations AQU, BNI and KEG, The inversion for the moment tensor is carried out following two approaches: a a model-independent stralegy to fit complete seismograms in the 100-130 s period range; b the calibration of phase velocity curves along each path to fit surface waves in the 40-100 s range, Both methodologies yield stable and consistent results: the 1990 Eastern Sicily earthquake had a seismic moment of M/o = 37 x 1024 dyne.cm, corresponding lo magnitude values of mb = 5,5, Ms = 5,7, Mw = ML = 5.8. In a second stage, synthetic seismograms arc generated by full reflectivity in the 5-50 s period range, with a new code based on the "minors" integration. By modelling surface waves in the 30-50 s range and body waves to 5 s periods, we derive average velocity models for the Central and Eastern Mediterranean, and constrain the hypocenter of the 1990 Eastern Sicily earthquake to be in the 13-17 km depth range.

  16. A reaction–diffusion SIS epidemic model in a time-periodic environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peng, Rui; Zhao, Xiao-Qiang

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, we consider a susceptible–infected–susceptible (SIS) reaction–diffusion model, where the rates of disease transmission and recovery are assumed to be spatially heterogeneous and temporally periodic and the total population number is constant. We introduce a basic reproduction number R 0 and establish threshold-type results on the global dynamics in terms of R 0 . In particular, we obtain the asymptotic properties of R 0 with respect to the diffusion rate d I of the infected individuals, which exhibit the delicate influence of the time-periodic heterogeneous environment on the extinction and persistence of the infectious disease. Our analytical results suggest that the combination of spatial heterogeneity and temporal periodicity tends to enhance the persistence of the disease

  17. Model development and experimental validation for analyzing initial transients of irradiation of tissues during thermal therapy using short pulse lasers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ganguly, Mohit; Miller, Stephanie; Mitra, Kunal

    2015-11-01

    initial stages of the irradiation. The temperature rise due to pulsed and CW laser irradiation converged as the time of irradiation increased. A similar trend was observed when comparing the thermal dose for pulsed and CW laser irradiation in the vascular model. Finite element models (continuum and vascular) were developed that can be used to predict temperature rise and quantify the thermal dose resulting from laser irradiation of excised rat skin samples and live anesthetized mouse tissue. The vascular model incorporating blood perfusion effects predicted temperature rise better in the live animal tissue. The models developed demonstrated that pulsed lasers caused greater temperature rise and delivered a greater thermal dose than CW lasers of equal average power, especially during the initial transients of irradiation. This analysis will be beneficial for thermal therapy applications where maximum delivery of thermal dose over a short period of time is important. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  18. Estimating FAPAR of Rice Growth Period Using Radiation Transfer Model Coupled with the WOFOST Model for Analyzing Heavy Metal Stress

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gaoxiang Zhou

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Timely assessment of crop growth conditions under heavy metal pollution is of great significance for agricultural decision-making and estimation of crop productivity. The object of this study is to assess the effects of heavy metal stress on physiological functions of rice through the spatial-temporal analysis of the fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (FAPAR. The calculation of daily FAPAR is conducted based on a coupled model consisting of the leaf-canopy radiative transfer model and World Food Study Model (WOFOST. These two models are connected by leaf area index (LAI and a fraction of diffused incoming solar radiation (SKYL in the rice growth period. The input parameters of the coupled model are obtained from measured data and GF-1 images. Meanwhile, in order to improve accuracy of FAPAR, the crop growth model is optimized by data assimilation. The validation result shows that the correlation between the simulated FAPAR and the measured data is strong in the rice growth period, with the correlation coefficients being above 7.5 for two areas. The discrepancy of FAPAR between two areas of different stress levels is visualized by spatial-temporal analysis. FAPAR discrepancy starts to appear in the jointing-booting period and experiences a gradual rise, reaching its maximum in the heading-flowering stage. This study suggests that the coupled model, consisting of the leaf-canopy radiative transfer model and the WOFOST model, is able to accurately simulate daily FAPAR during crop growth period and FAPAR can be used as a potential indicator to reflect the impact of heavy metal stress on crop growth.

  19. A phenomenological memristor model for short-term/long-term memory

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chen, Ling, E-mail: 2006chenling2006@163.com [College of Computer Science, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400044 (China); Li, Chuandong, E-mail: licd@cqu.edu.cn [College of Computer Science, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400044 (China); Huang, Tingwen [Texas A and M University at Qatar, Doha, B.O. Box 23874 (Qatar); Ahmad, Hafiz Gulfam [College of Computer Science, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400044 (China); Chen, Yiran [Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of Pittsburgh, PA 15261 (United States)

    2014-08-14

    Memristor is considered to be a natural electrical synapse because of its distinct memory property and nanoscale. In recent years, more and more similar behaviors are observed between memristors and biological synapse, e.g., short-term memory (STM) and long-term memory (LTM). The traditional mathematical models are unable to capture the new emerging behaviors. In this article, an updated phenomenological model based on the model of the Hewlett–Packard (HP) Labs has been proposed to capture such new behaviors. The new dynamical memristor model with an improved ion diffusion term can emulate the synapse behavior with forgetting effect, and exhibit the transformation between the STM and the LTM. Further, this model can be used in building new type of neural networks with forgetting ability like biological systems, and it is verified by our experiment with Hopfield neural network. - Highlights: • We take the Fick diffusion and the Soret diffusion into account in the ion drift theory. • We develop a new model based on the old HP model. • The new model can describe the forgetting effect and the spike-rate-dependent property of memristor. • The new model can solve the boundary effect of all window functions discussed in [13]. • A new Hopfield neural network with the forgetting ability is built by the new memristor model.

  20. A phenomenological memristor model for short-term/long-term memory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Ling; Li, Chuandong; Huang, Tingwen; Ahmad, Hafiz Gulfam; Chen, Yiran

    2014-01-01

    Memristor is considered to be a natural electrical synapse because of its distinct memory property and nanoscale. In recent years, more and more similar behaviors are observed between memristors and biological synapse, e.g., short-term memory (STM) and long-term memory (LTM). The traditional mathematical models are unable to capture the new emerging behaviors. In this article, an updated phenomenological model based on the model of the Hewlett–Packard (HP) Labs has been proposed to capture such new behaviors. The new dynamical memristor model with an improved ion diffusion term can emulate the synapse behavior with forgetting effect, and exhibit the transformation between the STM and the LTM. Further, this model can be used in building new type of neural networks with forgetting ability like biological systems, and it is verified by our experiment with Hopfield neural network. - Highlights: • We take the Fick diffusion and the Soret diffusion into account in the ion drift theory. • We develop a new model based on the old HP model. • The new model can describe the forgetting effect and the spike-rate-dependent property of memristor. • The new model can solve the boundary effect of all window functions discussed in [13]. • A new Hopfield neural network with the forgetting ability is built by the new memristor model

  1. Phased mission modelling of systems with maintenance-free operating periods using simulated Petri nets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chew, S.P.; Dunnett, S.J. [Department of Aeronautical and Automotive Engineering, Loughborough University, Loughborough, Leics (United Kingdom); Andrews, J.D. [Department of Aeronautical and Automotive Engineering, Loughborough University, Loughborough, Leics (United Kingdom)], E-mail: j.d.andrews@lboro.ac.uk

    2008-07-15

    A common scenario in engineering is that of a system which operates throughout several sequential and distinct periods of time, during which the modes and consequences of failure differ from one another. This type of operation is known as a phased mission, and for the mission to be a success the system must successfully operate throughout all of the phases. Examples include a rocket launch and an aeroplane flight. Component or sub-system failures may occur at any time during the mission, yet not affect the system performance until the phase in which their condition is critical. This may mean that the transition from one phase to the next is a critical event that leads to phase and mission failure, with the root cause being a component failure in a previous phase. A series of phased missions with no maintenance may be considered as a maintenance-free operating period (MFOP). This paper describes the use of a Petri net (PN) to model the reliability of the MFOP and phased missions scenario. The model uses Monte-Carlo simulation to obtain its results, and due to the modelling power of PNs, can consider complexities such as component failure rate interdependencies and mission abandonment. The model operates three different types of PN which interact to provide the overall system reliability modelling. The model is demonstrated and validated by considering two simple examples that can be solved analytically.

  2. Phased mission modelling of systems with maintenance-free operating periods using simulated Petri nets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chew, S.P.; Dunnett, S.J.; Andrews, J.D.

    2008-01-01

    A common scenario in engineering is that of a system which operates throughout several sequential and distinct periods of time, during which the modes and consequences of failure differ from one another. This type of operation is known as a phased mission, and for the mission to be a success the system must successfully operate throughout all of the phases. Examples include a rocket launch and an aeroplane flight. Component or sub-system failures may occur at any time during the mission, yet not affect the system performance until the phase in which their condition is critical. This may mean that the transition from one phase to the next is a critical event that leads to phase and mission failure, with the root cause being a component failure in a previous phase. A series of phased missions with no maintenance may be considered as a maintenance-free operating period (MFOP). This paper describes the use of a Petri net (PN) to model the reliability of the MFOP and phased missions scenario. The model uses Monte-Carlo simulation to obtain its results, and due to the modelling power of PNs, can consider complexities such as component failure rate interdependencies and mission abandonment. The model operates three different types of PN which interact to provide the overall system reliability modelling. The model is demonstrated and validated by considering two simple examples that can be solved analytically

  3. Some models of propagation of extremely short electromagnetic pulses in a nonlinear medium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maimistov, Andrei I

    2000-01-01

    Some cases of model media considered in this paper allow analytical solutions to nonlinear wave equations to be found and the time dependence of the electric field strength to be determined in the explicit form for arbitrarily short electromagnetic pulses. Our analysis does not employ any assumptions concerning a harmonic carrier wave or the variation rate of the field in such pulses. The class of models considered includes two-level resonance and quasi-resonance systems. Nonresonance media are analysed in terms of models of anharmonic oscillators - the Duffing and Lorentz models. In most cases, only particular solutions describing the stationary propagation of a video pulse (a unipolar transient of the electric field or a pulse including a small number of oscillations of the electric field around zero) can be found. These solutions correspond to sufficiently strong electromagnetic fields when the dispersion inherent in the medium is suppressed by nonlinear processes. (invited paper)

  4. Hydrodynamic model for ultra-short pulse ablation of hard dental tissue

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    London, R.A.; Bailey, D.S.; Young, D.A.; Alley, W.E.; Feit, M.D.; Rubenchik, A.M. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (United States); Neev, J. [Beckman Laser Inst., Irvine, CA (United States)

    1996-02-29

    A computational model for the ablation of tooth enamel by ultra-short laser pulses is presented. The role of simulations using this model in designing and understanding laser drilling systems is discussed. Pulses of duration 300 fsec and intensity greater than 10{sup 12} W/cm{sup 2} are considered. Laser absorption proceeds via multi-photon initiated plasma mechanism. The hydrodynamic response is calculated with a finite difference method, using an equation of state constructed from thermodynamic functions including electronic, ion motion, and chemical binding terms. Results for the ablation efficiency are presented. An analytic model describing the ablation threshold and ablation depth is presented. Thermal coupling to the remaining tissue and long-time thermal conduction are calculated. Simulation results are compared to experimental measurements of the ablation efficiency. Desired improvements in the model are presented.

  5. Short-range forecasting and nowcasting, using a simple, isentropic prediction model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petersen, Ralph A.; Homan, Jeffrey H.

    1989-01-01

    A numerical advection model which can be run on a local computer in a real-time forecast environment is described. This isentropic forecast model provides the local forecast office with easy access to temporally and spatially detailed estimates of atmospheric temperature, moisture, and wind field changes between 12-h rawinsonde observations. Case studies are presented based on the use of the model to predict the preconvective environment in spring and summer situations. Short-term forecasts of midtropospheric static stability patterns and stability index changes are traced for several severe storm events with and without the inclusion of surface data observed during the day. Forecast images of VAS low- and midlevel moisture fields and vertical moisture gradients are compared with the observations to determine the utility of the combined model/VAS imagery as a nowcasting guide.

  6. Short-Term City Electric Load Forecasting with Considering Temperature Effects: An Improved ARIMAX Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Herui Cui

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Short-term electric load is significantly affected by weather, especially the temperature effects in summer. External factors can result in mutation structures in load data. Under the influence of the external temperature factors, city electric load cannot be easily forecasted as usual. This research analyzes the relationship between electricity load and daily temperature in city. An improved ARIMAX model is proposed in this paper to deal with the mutation data structures. It is found that information amount of the improved ARIMAX model is smaller than that of the classic method and its relative error is less than AR, ARMA and Sigmoid-Function ANN models. The forecasting results are more accurately fitted. This improved model is highly valuable when dealing with mutation data structure in the field of load forecasting. And it is also an effective technique in forecasting electric load with temperature effects.

  7. Model, Proxy and Isotopic Perspectives on the East African Humid Period

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tierney, Jessica E.; Lewis, Sophie C.; Cook, Benjamin I.; LeGrande, Allegra N.; Schmidt, Gavin A.

    2011-01-01

    Both North and East Africa experienced more humid conditions during the early and mid-Holocene epoch (11,000-5000yr BP; 11-5 ka) relative to today. The North African Humid Period has been a major focus of paleoclimatic study, and represents a response of the hydrological cycle to the increase in boreal summer insolation and associated ocean, atmosphere and land surface feedbacks. Meanwhile, the mechanisms that caused the coeval East African Humid Period are poorly understood. Here, we use results from isotopeenabled coupled climate modeling experiments to investigate the cause of the East African Humid Period. The modeling results are interpreted alongside proxy records of both water balance and the isotopic composition of rainfall. Our simulations show that the orbitally-induced increase in dry season precipitation and the subsequent reduction in precipitation seasonality can explain the East African Humid Period, and this scenario agrees well with regional lake level and pollen paleoclimate data. Changes in zonal moisture flux from both the Atlantic and Indian Ocean account for the simulated increase in precipitation from June through November. Isotopic paleoclimate data and simulated changes in moisture source demonstrate that the western East African Rift Valley in particular experienced more humid conditions due to the influx of Atlantic moisture and enhanced convergence along the Congo Air Boundary. Our study demonstrates that zonal changes in moisture advection are an important determinant of climate variability in the East African region.

  8. A model for short alpha-neurotoxin bound to nicotinic acetylcholine receptor from Torpedo californica.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mordvintsev, Dmitry Y; Polyak, Yakov L; Kuzmine, Dmitry A; Levtsova, Olga V; Tourleigh, Yegor V; Kasheverov, Igor E

    2006-01-01

    Short- and long-chain alpha-neurotoxins from snake venoms are potent blockers of nicotinic acetylcholine receptors (nAChRs). Short alpha-neurotoxins consist of 60-62 amino acid residues and include 4 disulfide bridges, whereas long alpha-neurotoxins have 66-75 residues and 5 disulfides. The spatial structure of these toxins is built by three loops, I-III "fingers," confined by four disulfide bridges; the fifth disulfide of long-chain alpha-neurotoxins is situated close to the tip of central loop II. An accurate knowledge of the mode of alpha-neurotoxin-nAChR interaction is important for rational design of new nAChR agonists and antagonists for medical purposes. Ideas on the topography of toxin-nAChR complexes were based until recently on nAChR interactions with selectively labeled alpha-neurotoxins, mutations in toxins, nAChR, or both. Recently, crystal structures have been solved for the Torpedo marmorata nAChR (4A[Unwin, 2005]) and for the acetylcholine-binding protein (AChBP) complexed with mollusk alpha-conotoxin (2.4 A[Celie et al., 2005]) or alpha-cobratoxin, long-chain alpha-neurotoxin (4 A [Bourne et al., 2005]). However, there were no angstrom-resolution models for complexes of short-chain alpha-neurotoxins. Here, we report the model of the Torpedo californica nAChR extracellular domain complexed to a short-chain alpha-neurotoxin II (NTII) from Naja oxiana cobra venom.

  9. Busy period analysis, rare events and transient behavior in fluid flow models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Søren Asmussen

    1994-01-01

    Full Text Available We consider a process {(Jt,Vt}t≥0 on E×[0,∞, such that {Jt} is a Markov process with finite state space E, and {Vt} has a linear drift ri on intervals where Jt=i and reflection at 0. Such a process arises as a fluid flow model of current interest in telecommunications engineering for the purpose of modeling ATM technology. We compute the mean of the busy period and related first passage times, show that the probability of buffer overflow within a busy cycle is approximately exponential, and give conditioned limit theorems for the busy cycle with implications for quick simulation. Further, various inequalities and approximations for transient behavior are given. Also explicit expressions for the Laplace transform of the busy period are found. Mathematically, the key tool is first passage probabilities and exponential change of measure for Markov additive processes.

  10. On the transfer matrix of the supersymmetric eight-vertex model. I. Periodic boundary conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hagendorf, Christian; Liénardy, Jean

    2018-03-01

    The square-lattice eight-vertex model with vertex weights a, b, c, d obeying the relation (a^2+ab)(b^2+ab) = (c^2+ab)(d^2+ab) and periodic boundary conditions is considered. It is shown that the transfer matrix of the model for L  =  2n  +  1 vertical lines and periodic boundary conditions along the horizontal direction possesses the doubly degenerate eigenvalue \\Thetan = (a+b){\\hspace{0pt}}2n+1 . This proves a conjecture by Stroganov from 2001. The proof uses the supersymmetry of a related XYZ spin-chain Hamiltonian. The eigenstates of the transfer matrix corresponding to \\Thetan are shown to be the ground states of the spin-chain Hamiltonian. Moreover, for positive vertex weights \\Thetan is the largest eigenvalue of the transfer matrix.

  11. Short-wavelength Contractional Structures in Venusian Fold Belts: Additional Constraints From New Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghent, R.; Phillips, R.; Hansen, V.; Nunes, D.

    2002-12-01

    We have previously reported on the development of very short-wavelength (30 km [1, 2]. We simulated the initiation and growth of VST using finite-element models with uniform composition and elasto-visco-plastic rheology undergoing simultaneous cooling and shortening. The models were constrained by Magellan SAR imagery and motivated by the current plume hypothesis for crustal plateau origin [3, 4]. We determined that VST developed only in models with surface temperatures near 1000 K and elevated thermal gradients derived from a halfspace cooling model with initial uniform temperatures of 1200-1400 K. Model rheological profiles indicated a truly viscoplastic character, in which both creep and plastic mechanisms were significant at shallow depths. The resulting topography showed both very short-wavelength components and slightly longer-wavelength, low amplitude folds, as is common in Venusian crustal plateau fold belts. New simulations with greater spatial extent and higher mesh resolution allow further exploration of the interplay between viscous and plastic processes during VST development. Wider models allow more detailed investigation of viscous folding on the 1-4 km scale. We also employ temperature-dependent thermal conductivity [5] to better represent the thermal behavior of the model crust. The additional insight and expanded parameter space provided by these new models allow us to place improved constraints on the early thermal and mechanical evolution of crustal plateaus. [1] Ghent, R.R., R.J. Phillips, V.L. Hansen, and D.C. Nunes, Eos Trans. AGU, 83(19), Spring Meet. Suppl., Abstract P21A-05, 2002. [2] Ghent, R.R., R.J. Phillips, and V.L. Hansen, 2001, Eos Trans. AGU, 82(47), Spring Meet. Suppl., Abstract T41B-0865, 2001. [3] Hansen, V.L. and J.J. Willis, Icarus, 132, 321-343, 1998. [4] Phillips, R.J. and V.L. Hansen, Science, 279, p1492, 1998. [5] Hofmeister, A, Science, 283, p1699, 1999.

  12. Sustainable Irrigation Allocation Model for Dry and Wet Periods using Reservoir Storage and Inflow

    Science.gov (United States)

    Surianarayanan, S.; Suribabu, C. R.; Ramakrishnan, K.

    2017-07-01

    The dry period agriculture is inevitable both for the farmers for their earning, and for the soil for its fertility by crop-rotation. In tropical countries like INDIA, dry period agriculture becomes difficult because of less (or) no rain fall. Hence a simple water balancing model for irrigation scheduling, using the measure “Volumetric Reliability” is prepared in this paper, with the storage and inflow of a reservoir both for the dry and wet periods. The case-study is done for a reservoir in INDIA with thirty one years of hydrological data(from 1982 to 2012). The objective of this paper is to prepare a simple water balance model taking 10 days periods of demand and supply for ID crop(Irrigated Dry crop, ground nut) with usage of volumetric reliability concept for the periods of deficiency and adoption of less water requirement crops to reduce the water-stress during critical periods of crop growth, and finally arrive at a feasible allocation schedule for the success of agriculture and the yield throughout the year both for wet and dry crops with the available storage on the start of irrigation for a particular year. The reservoir is divided for storages such as full, deficient and critical storages. The starting storage for the dry period from January is used after adequate allocation for wet crops, the quantity for riparian rights and for drinking water, for the sustainability. By the water-balancing, the time-series for thirty one years, it is found that for twenty two years the demand for the ID crops is satisfied with the storage in the reservoir, and in the remaining years of deficient inflows, for three years (1986,1996,2004)the demand is managed by using the safe reliability factor for demand which can nullify the deficit in demand for the whole supply period. But it is genuine to assure that the reduction in the amount of water for each 10 days periods should not exceed the survival limit of the crop. Necessary soil-moisture must be ensured in the crop

  13. Double-gate junctionless transistor model including short-channel effects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paz, B C; Pavanello, M A; Ávila-Herrera, F; Cerdeira, A

    2015-01-01

    This work presents a physically based model for double-gate junctionless transistors (JLTs), continuous in all operation regimes. To describe short-channel transistors, short-channel effects (SCEs), such as increase of the channel potential due to drain bias, carrier velocity saturation and mobility degradation due to vertical and longitudinal electric fields, are included in a previous model developed for long-channel double-gate JLTs. To validate the model, an analysis is made by using three-dimensional numerical simulations performed in a Sentaurus Device Simulator from Synopsys. Different doping concentrations, channel widths and channel lengths are considered in this work. Besides that, the series resistance influence is numerically included and validated for a wide range of source and drain extensions. In order to check if the SCEs are appropriately described, besides drain current, transconductance and output conductance characteristics, the following parameters are analyzed to demonstrate the good agreement between model and simulation and the SCEs occurrence in this technology: threshold voltage (V TH ), subthreshold slope (S) and drain induced barrier lowering. (paper)

  14. A semi analytical model for short range dispersion from ground sources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gavze, Ehud; Reichman, Rivka; Fattal, Eyal

    2014-05-01

    A semi-analytical model for dispersion of passive scalars from ground sources up to distances of a few hundred meters is presented. Analytical, or semi-analytical models are useful as they are simple to use and require only a short computation time, compared, for example, to Lagrangian Stochastic Models. As such they are valuable in cases where repeated computations of the concentration field is required, as for example in risk assessments and in the inverse problem of source determination. Among the analytical models the most widely used are the Gaussian models which assume both a uniform wind field and homogeneous turbulence. These assumptions are not valid when ground source is involved since both the wind and the turbulence depend on height. The model proposed here is free of these two assumptions. The formulation of the vertical dispersion is based on approximating the vertical profiles of the wind and the the vertical diffusion coefficient as power laws. One advantage of this approach is that it allows for non Gaussian vertical profiles of the concentration which better fit the experimental data. For the lateral dispersion the model still assumes a Gaussian form. A system of equations was developed to compute the cloud width, taking into account the non-homogeneity of the wind and the turbulence in the vertical direction. The model was tested against two field experiments. Comparison with a Gaussian model showed that it performed much better in predicting both the integrated cross wind ground concentration and the cloud width.

  15. Short-Term Power Forecasting Model for Photovoltaic Plants Based on Historical Similarity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Sonia Terreros-Olarte

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a new model for short-term forecasting of electric energy production in a photovoltaic (PV plant. The model is called HIstorical SImilar MIning (HISIMI model; its final structure is optimized by using a genetic algorithm, based on data mining techniques applied to historical cases composed by past forecasted values of weather variables, obtained from numerical tools for weather prediction, and by past production of electric power in a PV plant. The HISIMI model is able to supply spot values of power forecasts, and also the uncertainty, or probabilities, associated with those spot values, providing new useful information to users with respect to traditional forecasting models for PV plants. Such probabilities enable analysis and evaluation of risk associated with those spot forecasts, for example, in offers of energy sale for electricity markets. The results of spot forecasting of an illustrative example obtained with the HISIMI model for a real-life grid-connected PV plant, which shows high intra-hour variability of its actual power output, with forecasting horizons covering the following day, have improved those obtained with other two power spot forecasting models, which are a persistence model and an artificial neural network model.

  16. Projecting cancer incidence using age-period-cohort models incorporating restricted cubic splines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rutherford, Mark J; Thompson, John R; Lambert, Paul C

    2012-11-05

    Age-period-cohort models provide a useful method for modeling incidence and mortality rates. There is great interest in estimating the rates of disease at given future time-points in order that plans can be made for the provision of the required future services. In the setting of using age-period-cohort models incorporating restricted cubic splines, a new technique for projecting incidence is proposed. The new technique projects the period and cohort terms linearly from 10 years within the range of the available data in order to give projections that are based on recent trends. The method is validated via a comparison with existing methods in the setting of Finnish cancer registry data. The reasons for the improvements seen for the newly proposed method are twofold. Firstly, improvements are seen due to the finer splitting of the timescale to give a more continuous estimate of the incidence rate. Secondly, the new method uses more recent trends to dictate the future projections than previously proposed methods.

  17. Influence of periodic external fields in multiagent models with language dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palombi, Filippo; Ferriani, Stefano; Toti, Simona

    2017-12-01

    We investigate large-scale effects induced by external fields, phenomenologically interpreted as mass media, in multiagent models evolving with the microscopic dynamics of the binary naming game. In particular, we show that a single external field, broadcasting information at regular time intervals, can reverse the majority opinion of the population, provided the frequency and the effectiveness of the sent messages lie above well-defined thresholds. We study the phase structure of the model in the mean field approximation and in numerical simulations with several network topologies. We also investigate the influence on the agent dynamics of two competing external fields, periodically broadcasting different messages. In finite regions of the parameter space we observe periodic equilibrium states in which the average opinion densities are reversed with respect to naive expectations. Such equilibria occur in two cases: (i) when the frequencies of the competing messages are different but close to each other; (ii) when the frequencies are equal and the relative time shift of the messages does not exceed half a period. We interpret the observed phenomena as a result of the interplay between the external fields and the internal dynamics of the agents and conclude that, depending on the model parameters, the naming game is consistent with scenarios of first- or second-mover advantage (to borrow an expression from the jargon of business strategy).

  18. The Global Behavior of a Periodic Epidemic Model with Travel between Patches

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luosheng Wen

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available We establish an SIS (susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic model, in which the travel between patches and the periodic transmission rate are considered. As an example, the global behavior of the model with two patches is investigated. We present the expression of basic reproduction ratio R0 and two theorems on the global behavior: if R0 1, then it is unstable; if R0 > 1, the disease is uniform persistence. Finally, two numerical examples are given to clarify the theoretical results.

  19. Influence of Selective Edge Removal and Refractory Period in a Self-Organized Critical Neuron Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lin Min; Gang, Zhao; Chen Tianlun

    2009-01-01

    A simple model for a set of integrate-and-fire neurons based on the weighted network is introduced. By considering the neurobiological phenomenon in brain development and the difference of the synaptic strength, we construct weighted networks develop with link additions and followed by selective edge removal. The network exhibits the small-world and scale-free properties with high network efficiency. The model displays an avalanche activity on a power-law distribution. We investigate the effect of selective edge removal and the neuron refractory period on the self-organized criticality of the system. (condensed matter: structural, mechanical, and thermal properties)

  20. Modeling HCV cure after an ultra-short duration of therapy with direct acting agents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goyal, Ashish; Lurie, Yoav; Meissner, Eric G; Major, Marian; Sansone, Natasha; Uprichard, Susan L; Cotler, Scott J; Dahari, Harel

    2017-08-01

    Cases of sustained-virological response (SVR or cure) after an ultra-short duration (≤27 days) of direct-acting antiviral (DAA)-based therapy, despite HCV being detected at end of treatment (EOT), have been reported. Established HCV mathematical models that predict the treatment duration required to achieve cure do not take into account the possibility that the infectivity of virus produced during treatment might be reduced. The aim of this study was to develop a new mathematical model that considers the fundamental and critical concept that HCV RNA in serum represents both infectious virus (V i ) and non-infectious virus (V ni ) in order to explain the observation of cure with ultrashort DAA therapy. Established HCV models were compared to the new mathematical model to retrospectively explain cure in 2 patients who achieved cure after 24 or 27 days of paritaprevir, ombitasvir, dasabuvir, ritonavir and ribavirin or sofosbuvir plus ribavirin, respectively. Fitting established models with measured longitudinal HCV viral loads indicated that in both cases, cure would not have been expected without an additional 3-6 weeks of therapy after the actual EOT. In contrast, the new model fits the observed outcome by considering that in addition to blocking V i and V ni production (ε∼0.998), these DAA + ribavirin treatments further enhanced the ratio of V ni to V i , thus increasing the log (V ni /V i ) from 1 at pretreatment to 6 by EOT, which led to <1 infectious-virus particle in the extracellular body fluid (i.e., cure) prior to EOT. This new model can explain cure after short duration of DAA + ribavirin therapy by suggesting that a minimum 6-fold increase of log (V ni /V i ) results from drug-induced enhancement of the V ni /V i . Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. Modelling the dispersion of radionuclides following short duration releases to rivers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, J.T.; Bowes, M.; Denison, F.H.

    2003-01-01

    This project develops a model for assessing short duration liquid discharges of radionuclides to rivers. The assessment of doses arising from discharges to rivers is normally carried out by considering annual average discharge rates. Actual authorised discharges, however, may occur unevenly during the year or relatively high short-term discharges could occur in the unlikely event of an incident. Short term radionuclide releases could potentially result in temporary increases in radionuclide activity concentrations in water and fish which are greater than those resulting from a continuous discharge. The purpose of this project is to develop a model to assess short term releases from these sites, and where possible develop generic methods of assessing short term releases. An advection-dispersion model was developed to predict the concentrations of radionuclides in the river environment, ie in river water, river bed sediment and in predatory fish. Uptake of radionuclides to fish was modelled by estimating rates of uptake of radionuclides via the aquatic food chain or across the gill, as appropriate. The model was used to predict the concentrations of the radionuclides in the river Thames and its tributaries as a result of short duration discharges into stretches of the Thames and River Colne. Model output is given as a series of graphs of activity concentration and time integrated activity concentration resulting from a 1 MBq discharge for the following release durations: 5 minutes, 1 h, 3 h, 12 h and 24 h. The five locations for which predictions are given were 100m, 300m, 1000m, 3000m and 10000m downstream. The river volumetric flow rate was shown to be the most important environmental variable determining activity concentrations in water, fish and sediments following a release. In general, the maximum and integrated activity concentrations in water and fish will be in inverse proportion to the river volumetric flow rate, for a given amount and duration of release

  2. Probing the topological properties of complex networks modeling short written texts.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diego R Amancio

    Full Text Available In recent years, graph theory has been widely employed to probe several language properties. More specifically, the so-called word adjacency model has been proven useful for tackling several practical problems, especially those relying on textual stylistic analysis. The most common approach to treat texts as networks has simply considered either large pieces of texts or entire books. This approach has certainly worked well-many informative discoveries have been made this way-but it raises an uncomfortable question: could there be important topological patterns in small pieces of texts? To address this problem, the topological properties of subtexts sampled from entire books was probed. Statistical analyses performed on a dataset comprising 50 novels revealed that most of the traditional topological measurements are stable for short subtexts. When the performance of the authorship recognition task was analyzed, it was found that a proper sampling yields a discriminability similar to the one found with full texts. Surprisingly, the support vector machine classification based on the characterization of short texts outperformed the one performed with entire books. These findings suggest that a local topological analysis of large documents might improve its global characterization. Most importantly, it was verified, as a proof of principle, that short texts can be analyzed with the methods and concepts of complex networks. As a consequence, the techniques described here can be extended in a straightforward fashion to analyze texts as time-varying complex networks.

  3. Beyond Born-Mayer: Improved Models for Short-Range Repulsion in ab Initio Force Fields.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Vleet, Mary J; Misquitta, Alston J; Stone, Anthony J; Schmidt, J R

    2016-08-09

    Short-range repulsion within intermolecular force fields is conventionally described by either Lennard-Jones (A/r(12)) or Born-Mayer (A exp(-Br)) forms. Despite their widespread use, these simple functional forms are often unable to describe the interaction energy accurately over a broad range of intermolecular distances, thus creating challenges in the development of ab initio force fields and potentially leading to decreased accuracy and transferability. Herein, we derive a novel short-range functional form based on a simple Slater-like model of overlapping atomic densities and an iterated stockholder atom (ISA) partitioning of the molecular electron density. We demonstrate that this Slater-ISA methodology yields a more accurate, transferable, and robust description of the short-range interactions at minimal additional computational cost compared to standard Lennard-Jones or Born-Mayer approaches. Finally, we show how this methodology can be adapted to yield the standard Born-Mayer functional form while still retaining many of the advantages of the Slater-ISA approach.

  4. Linear sound attenuation model for assessing external stimuli in prenatal period.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bieńkowska, Maria; Mitas, Andrzej W

    2017-11-22

    The popularization of acoustic stimulation during the prenatal period encourages the analysis of sounds reaching the inside of the uterus. To assess the distortion of any sound stimuli, a mathematical model of attenuation has to be used. In this paper a mathematical model is proposed on the basis of data from a physical model. The physical model consisted of muscle slices of two different thicknesses placed in a tank filled with water. The amplitudes of sinusoidal waves between 160 and 2000 Hz were measured under the water surface. Using the collected data, a linear mathematical model of sound attenuation on the way to the fetal ear was created. The results indicated a rise in the amount of sound attenuation for increasing frequencies. Analysis of slope coefficients for two muscle thicknesses revealed that there is no significant difference between attenuation by the thinner and the thicker tissue. Finally, the model was verified with data obtained during experiments on animals. The proposed model of the sound transmission allowed assessment of the attenuation by a soft tissue. It reveals changes in the sound reaching fetal ears, which can make acoustic stimulation different than what is heard in postnatal life. The model can be used to simulate the distortion of any sound which is proposed to prenatal stimulation and to assess its quality. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Critical dynamics of the Potts model: short-time Monte Carlo simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silva, Roberto da; Drugowich de Felicio, J.R.

    2004-01-01

    We calculate the new dynamic exponent θ of the 4-state Potts model, using short-time simulations. Our estimates θ1=-0.0471(33) and θ2=-0.0429(11) obtained by following the behavior of the magnetization or measuring the evolution of the time correlation function of the magnetization corroborate the conjecture by Okano et al. [Nucl. Phys. B 485 (1997) 727]. In addition, these values agree with previous estimate of the same dynamic exponent for the two-dimensional Ising model with three-spin interactions in one direction, that is known to belong to the same universality class as the 4-state Potts model. The anomalous dimension of initial magnetization x0=zθ+β/ν is calculated by an alternative way that mixes two different initial conditions. We have also estimated the values of the static exponents β and ν. They are in complete agreement with the pertinent results of the literature

  6. Scaling model for high-aspect-ratio microballoon direct-drive implosions at short laser wavelengths

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schirmann, D.; Juraszek, D.; Lane, S.M.; Campbell, E.M.

    1992-01-01

    A scaling model for hot spherical ablative implosions in direct-drive mode is presented. The model results have been compared with experiments from LLE, ILE, and LLNL. Reduction of the neutron yield due to illumination nonuniformities is taken into account by the assumption that the neutron emission is cut off when the gas shock wave reflected off the center meets the incoming pusher, i.e., at a time when the probability of shell breakup is greatly enhanced. The main advantage of this semiempirical scaling model is that it elucidates the principal features of these simple implosions and permits one to estimate very quickly the performance of a high-aspect-ratio direct-drive target illuminated by short-wavelength laser light. (Author)

  7. Strut and tie modeling for RC short beams with corroded stirrups

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmed K. El-Sayed

    Full Text Available Corrosion of steel reinforcement is one of the major problems that shorten the service life of reinforced concrete (RC structures. Steel stirrups, due to their location as an outer reinforcement, are more susceptible to corrosion problems and damage. However, there is limited research work in the literature on the effects of stirrup corrosion on the shear strength of RC beams. This paper attempts to evaluate analytically the residual shear strength of RC short beams with corrosion-damaged stirrups. The shear strength of short or deep beams are generally determined using the strut and tie model. The corrosion effects were implemented in the model to make it capable of predicting the residual shear capacity of RC beams with corroded stirrups. The effect of corrosion is implemented considering the reduction in geometry of the concrete cross section due to spalling and reduction in effective compressive strength of concrete due to corrosion cracks. The proposed strut and tie model which accounts for the corrosion effects was verified using the experimental data available in the literature, and good agreement was found.

  8. Downscaling of Short-Term Precipitation from Regional Climate Models for Sustainable Urban Planning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Holger Hoppe

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available A framework for downscaling precipitation from RCM projections to the high resolutions in time and space required in the urban hydrological climate change impact assessment is outlined and demonstrated. The basic approach is that of Delta Change, developed for both continuous and event-based applications. In both cases, Delta Change Factors (DCFs are calculated which represent the expected future change of some key precipitation statistics. In the continuous case, short-term precipitation from climate projections are analysed in order to estimate DCFs associated with different percentiles in the frequency distribution of non-zero intensities. The DCFs may then be applied to an observed time series, producing a realisation of a future time series. The event-based case involves downscaling of Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF curves based on extreme value analysis of annual maxima using the Gumbel distribution. The resulting DCFs are expressed as a function of duration and frequency (i.e., return period and may be used to estimate future design storms. The applications are demonstrated in case studies focusing on the expected changes in short-term precipitation statistics until 2100 in the cities of Linz (Austria and Wuppertal (Germany. The downscaling framework is implemented in the climate service developed within the EU-project SUDPLAN.

  9. A biophysical model of endocannabinoid-mediated short term depression in hippocampal inhibition.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Margarita Zachariou

    Full Text Available Memories are believed to be represented in the synaptic pathways of vastly interconnected networks of neurons. The plasticity of synapses, that is, their strengthening and weakening depending on neuronal activity, is believed to be the basis of learning and establishing memories. An increasing number of studies indicate that endocannabinoids have a widespread action on brain function through modulation of synaptic transmission and plasticity. Recent experimental studies have characterised the role of endocannabinoids in mediating both short- and long-term synaptic plasticity in various brain regions including the hippocampus, a brain region strongly associated with cognitive functions, such as learning and memory. Here, we present a biophysically plausible model of cannabinoid retrograde signalling at the synaptic level and investigate how this signalling mediates depolarisation induced suppression of inhibition (DSI, a prominent form of short-term synaptic depression in inhibitory transmission in hippocampus. The model successfully captures many of the key characteristics of DSI in the hippocampus, as observed experimentally, with a minimal yet sufficient mathematical description of the major signalling molecules and cascades involved. More specifically, this model serves as a framework to test hypotheses on the factors determining the variability of DSI and investigate under which conditions it can be evoked. The model reveals the frequency and duration bands in which the post-synaptic cell can be sufficiently stimulated to elicit DSI. Moreover, the model provides key insights on how the state of the inhibitory cell modulates DSI according to its firing rate and relative timing to the post-synaptic activation. Thus, it provides concrete suggestions to further investigate experimentally how DSI modulates and is modulated by neuronal activity in the brain. Importantly, this model serves as a stepping stone for future deciphering of the role of

  10. Periodicity in a Conceptual Model of Glacial Cycles in the Absence of Milankovitch Forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hahn, J.; Walsh, J.; Widiasih, E.; McGehee, R.

    2015-12-01

    Previously, McGehee and Widiasih coupled Budyko's Energy Balance Model with dynamics of a latitudinal ice-line incorporating the albedo feedback effect. They reduced this model to a two-dimensional equation of global mean temperature and a latitudinal ice-line. With this conceptual model, we now include dynamics of the ablation and accumulation of ice, to form a three-dimensional system that partitions the regions of the Earth latitudinally into an accumulation zone, ablation zone, and ice-free zone. Motivated by the findings of Abe-Ouchi et al that the fast retreat of ice-sheets is due to an increased rate of ablation via the effects of delayed isostatic rebound, we incorporate a simple switching mechanism to the model which increases the rate of ablation during periods of glacial retreat. This forms a discontinuous system of the Earth's temperature and ice-volume in which we find a stable periodic orbit. This can be interpreted as a intrinsic cycling of the Earth's climate in the absence of Milankovitch forcing.

  11. The Short Personality Inventory for DSM-5 and Its Conjoined Structure with the Common Five-Factor Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kajonius, Petri J.

    2017-01-01

    Research is currently testing how the new maladaptive personality inventory for DSM (PID-5) and the well-established common Five-Factor Model (FFM) together can serve as an empirical and theoretical foundation for clinical psychology. The present study investigated the official short version of the PID-5 together with a common short version of…

  12. Model of inventory replenishment in periodic review accounting for the occurrence of shortages

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stanisław Krzyżaniak

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: Despite the development of alternative concepts of goods flow management, the inventory management under conditions of random variations of demand is still an important issue, both from the point of view of inventory keeping and replenishment costs and the service level measured as the level of inventory availability. There is a number of inventory replenishment systems used in these conditions, but they are mostly developments of two basic systems: reorder point-based and periodic review-based. The paper deals with the latter system. Numerous researches indicate the need to improve the classical models describing that system, the reason being mainly the necessity to adapt the model better to the actual conditions. This allows a correct selection of parameters that control the used inventory replenishment system and - as a result - to obtain expected economic effects. Methods: This research aimed at building a model of the periodic review system to reflect the relations (observed during simulation tests between the volume of inventory shortages and the degree of accounting for so-called deferred demand, and the service level expressed as the probability of satisfying the demand in the review and the inventory replenishment cycle. The following model building and testing method has been applied: numerical simulation of inventory replenishment - detailed analysis of simulation results - construction of the model taking into account the regularities observed during the simulations - determination of principles of solving the system of relations creating the model - verification of the results obtained from the model using the results from simulation. Results: Presented are selected results of calculations based on classical formulas and using the developed model, which describe the relations between the service level and the parameters controlling the discussed inventory replenishment system. The results are compared to the simulation

  13. Description of cervical cancer mortality in Belgium using Bayesian age-period-cohort models

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-01-01

    Objective To correct cervical cancer mortality rates for death cause certification problems in Belgium and to describe the corrected trends (1954-1997) using Bayesian models. Method Cervical cancer (cervix uteri (CVX), corpus uteri (CRP), not otherwise specified (NOS) uterus cancer and other very rare uterus cancer (OTH) mortality data were extracted from the WHO mortality database together with population data for Belgium and the Netherlands. Different ICD (International Classification of Diseases) were used over time for death cause certification. In the Netherlands, the proportion of not-otherwise specified uterine cancer deaths was small over large periods and therefore internal reallocation could be used to estimate the corrected rates cervical cancer mortality. In Belgium, the proportion of improperly defined uterus deaths was high. Therefore, the age-specific proportions of uterus cancer deaths that are probably of cervical origin for the Netherlands was applied to Belgian uterus cancer deaths to estimate the corrected number of cervix cancer deaths (corCVX). A Bayesian loglinear Poisson-regression model was performed to disentangle the separate effects of age, period and cohort. Results The corrected age standardized mortality rate (ASMR) decreased regularly from 9.2/100 000 in the mid 1950s to 2.5/100,000 in the late 1990s. Inclusion of age, period and cohort into the models were required to obtain an adequate fit. Cervical cancer mortality increases with age, declines over calendar period and varied irregularly by cohort. Conclusion Mortality increased with ageing and declined over time in most age-groups, but varied irregularly by birth cohort. In global, with some discrete exceptions, mortality decreased for successive generations up to the cohorts born in the 1930s. This decline stopped for cohorts born in the 1940s and thereafter. For the youngest cohorts, even a tendency of increasing risk of dying from cervical cancer could be observed, reflecting

  14. A Model for Periodic Nonlinear Electric Field Structures in Space Plasmas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Qureshi, M.N.S.; Shi Jiankui; Liu Zhenxing

    2009-01-01

    In this study, we present a physical model to explain the generation mechanism of nonlinear periodic waves with a large amplitude electric field structures propagating obliquely and exactly parallel to the magnetic field. The 'Sagdeev potential' from the MHD equations is derived and the nonlinear electric field waveforms are obtained when the Mach number, direction of propagation, and the initial electric field satisfy certain plasma conditions. For the parallel propagation, the amplitude of the electric field waves with ion-acoustic mode increases with the increase of initial electric field and Mach number but its frequency decreases with the increase of Mach number. The amplitude and frequency of the electric field waves with ion-cyclotron mode decrease with the increase of Mach number and become less spiky, and its amplitude increases with the increase of initial electric field. For the oblique propagation, only periodic electric field wave with an ion-cyclotron mode obtained, its amplitude and frequency increase with the increase of Mach number and become spiky. From our model the electric field structures show periodic, spiky, and saw-tooth behaviours corresponding to different plasma conditions.

  15. Short-Term Solar Irradiance Forecasting Model Based on Artificial Neural Network Using Statistical Feature Parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hongshan Zhao

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Short-term solar irradiance forecasting (STSIF is of great significance for the optimal operation and power predication of grid-connected photovoltaic (PV plants. However, STSIF is very complex to handle due to the random and nonlinear characteristics of solar irradiance under changeable weather conditions. Artificial Neural Network (ANN is suitable for STSIF modeling and many research works on this topic are presented, but the conciseness and robustness of the existing models still need to be improved. After discussing the relation between weather variations and irradiance, the characteristics of the statistical feature parameters of irradiance under different weather conditions are figured out. A novel ANN model using statistical feature parameters (ANN-SFP for STSIF is proposed in this paper. The input vector is reconstructed with several statistical feature parameters of irradiance and ambient temperature. Thus sufficient information can be effectively extracted from relatively few inputs and the model complexity is reduced. The model structure is determined by cross-validation (CV, and the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm (LMA is used for the network training. Simulations are carried out to validate and compare the proposed model with the conventional ANN model using historical data series (ANN-HDS, and the results indicated that the forecast accuracy is obviously improved under variable weather conditions.

  16. Short-Term Photovoltaic Power Generation Forecasting Based on Multivariable Grey Theory Model with Parameter Optimization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhifeng Zhong

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Owing to the environment, temperature, and so forth, photovoltaic power generation volume is always fluctuating and subsequently impacts power grid planning and operation seriously. Therefore, it is of great importance to make accurate prediction of the power generation of photovoltaic (PV system in advance. In order to improve the prediction accuracy, in this paper, a novel particle swarm optimization algorithm based multivariable grey theory model is proposed for short-term photovoltaic power generation volume forecasting. It is highlighted that, by integrating particle swarm optimization algorithm, the prediction accuracy of grey theory model is expected to be highly improved. In addition, large amounts of real data from two separate power stations in China are being employed for model verification. The experimental results indicate that, compared with the conventional grey model, the mean relative error in the proposed model has been reduced from 7.14% to 3.53%. The real practice demonstrates that the proposed optimization model outperforms the conventional grey model from both theoretical and practical perspectives.

  17. Relative performance of different numerical weather prediction models for short term predition of wind wnergy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Giebel, G.; Landberg, L. [Risoe National Lab., Wind Energy and Atmospheric Physics Dept., Roskilde (Denmark); Moennich, K.; Waldl, H.P. [Carl con Ossietzky Univ., Faculty of Physics, Dept. of Energy and Semiconductor, Oldenburg (Germany)

    1999-03-01

    In several approaches presented in other papers in this conference, short term forecasting of wind power for a time horizon covering the next two days is done on the basis of Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models. This paper explores the relative merits of HIRLAM, which is the model used by the Danish Meteorological Institute, the Deutschlandmodell from the German Weather Service and the Nested Grid Model used in the US. The performance comparison will be mainly done for a site in Germany which is in the forecasting area of both the Deutschlandmodell and HIRLAM. In addition, a comparison of measured data with the forecasts made for one site in Iowa will be included, which allows conclusions on the merits of all three models. Differences in the relative performances could be due to a better tailoring of one model to its country, or to a tighter grid, or could be a function of the distance between the grid points and the measuring site. Also the amount, in which the performance can be enhanced by the use of model output statistics (topic of other papers in this conference) could give insights into the performance of the models. (au)

  18. Quasi-periodic oscillations in accreting magnetic white dwarfs. II. The asset of numerical modelling for interpreting observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Busschaert, C.; Falize, É.; Michaut, C.; Bonnet-Bidaud, J.-M.; Mouchet, M.

    2015-07-01

    Context. Magnetic cataclysmic variables are close binary systems containing a strongly magnetized white dwarf that accretes matter coming from an M-dwarf companion. The high magnetic field strength leads to the formation of an accretion column instead of an accretion disk. High-energy radiation coming from those objects is emitted from the column close to the white dwarf photosphere at the impact region. Its properties depend on the characteristics of the white dwarf and an accurate accretion column model allows the properties of the binary system to be inferred, such as the white dwarf mass, its magnetic field, and the accretion rate. Aims: We study the temporal and spectral behaviour of the accretion region and use the tools we developed to accurately connect the simulation results to the X-ray and optical astronomical observations. Methods: The radiation hydrodynamics code Hades was adapted to simulate this specific accretion phenomena. Classical approaches were used to model the radiative losses of the two main radiative processes: bremsstrahlung and cyclotron. Synthetic light curves and X-ray spectra were extracted from numerical simulations. A fast Fourier analysis was performed on the simulated light curves. The oscillation frequencies and amplitudes in the X-ray and optical domains are studied to compare those numerical results to observational ones. Different dimensional formulae were developed to complete the numerical evaluations. Results: The complete characterization of the emitting region is described for the two main radiative regimes: when only the bremsstrahlung losses and when both cyclotron and bremsstrahlung losses are considered. The effect of the non-linear cooling instability regime on the accretion column behaviour is analysed. Variation in luminosity on short timescales (~1 s quasi-periodic oscillations) is an expected consequence of this specific dynamic. The importance of secondary shock instability on the quasi-periodic oscillation

  19. Groundwater flow modelling of periods with periglacial and glacial climate conditions - Forsmark

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vidstrand, Patrik (TerraSolve AB, Floda (Sweden)); Follin, Sven (SF GeoLogic AB, Taeby (Sweden)); Zugec, Nada (Bergab, Stockholm (Sweden))

    2010-12-15

    As a part of the license application for a final repository for spent nuclear fuel at Forsmark, the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) has undertaken a series of groundwater flow modelling studies. These represent time periods with different hydraulic conditions and the simulations carried out contribute to the overall evaluation of the repository design and long-term radiological safety. The groundwater flow modelling study reported here comprises a coupled thermal-hydraulic-chemical (T-H-C) analysis of periods with periglacial and glacial climate conditions. Hydraulic-mechanical (H-M) issues are also handled but no coupled flow modelling is done. The objective of the report is to provide bounding hydrogeological estimates at different stages during glaciation and deglaciation of a glacial cycle for subsequent use in safety assessment applications within SKB's project SR-Site. Three cases with different climate conditions are analysed here: (i) Temperate case, (ii) Glacial case without permafrost, and (iii) Glacial case with permafrost. The glacial periods are transient and encompass approximately 19,000 years. The simulation results comprise residual fluid pressures, Darcy fluxes, and water salinities, as well as advective transport performance measures obtained by particle tracking such as flow path lengths, travel times and flow-related transport resistances. The modelling is accompanied by a sensitivity study that addresses the impact of the following matters: the direction of the ice sheet advance, the speed of the ice sheet margin, the bedrock hydraulic and transport properties, the temperature at the ice-subsurface interface close to the ice sheet margin, and the initial hydrochemical conditions.

  20. Groundwater flow modelling of periods with periglacial and glacial climate conditions - Forsmark

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vidstrand, Patrik; Follin, Sven; Zugec, Nada

    2010-12-01

    As a part of the license application for a final repository for spent nuclear fuel at Forsmark, the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) has undertaken a series of groundwater flow modelling studies. These represent time periods with different hydraulic conditions and the simulations carried out contribute to the overall evaluation of the repository design and long-term radiological safety. The groundwater flow modelling study reported here comprises a coupled thermal-hydraulic-chemical (T-H-C) analysis of periods with periglacial and glacial climate conditions. Hydraulic-mechanical (H-M) issues are also handled but no coupled flow modelling is done. The objective of the report is to provide bounding hydrogeological estimates at different stages during glaciation and deglaciation of a glacial cycle for subsequent use in safety assessment applications within SKB's project SR-Site. Three cases with different climate conditions are analysed here: (i) Temperate case, (ii) Glacial case without permafrost, and (iii) Glacial case with permafrost. The glacial periods are transient and encompass approximately 19,000 years. The simulation results comprise residual fluid pressures, Darcy fluxes, and water salinities, as well as advective transport performance measures obtained by particle tracking such as flow path lengths, travel times and flow-related transport resistances. The modelling is accompanied by a sensitivity study that addresses the impact of the following matters: the direction of the ice sheet advance, the speed of the ice sheet margin, the bedrock hydraulic and transport properties, the temperature at the ice-subsurface interface close to the ice sheet margin, and the initial hydrochemical conditions

  1. Micromechanical modeling of damage in periodic composites using strain gradient plasticity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Azizi, Reza

    2012-01-01

    model for the fiber–matrix interface. For the micro structure, free energy holds both elastic strains and plastic strain gradients. Due to the gradient theory, higher order boundary conditions must be considered. A unit cell with a circular elastic fiber is studied by the numerical finite element cell......Damage evolution at the fiber matrix interface in Metal Matrix Composites (MMCs) is studied using strain gradient theory of plasticity. The study includes the rate independent formulation of energetic strain gradient plasticity for the matrix, purely elastic model for the fiber and cohesive zone...... model under simple shear and transverse uniaxial tension using plane strain and periodic boundary conditions. The result of the overall response curve, effective plastic strain, effective stress and higher order stress distributions are shown. The effect of the material length scale, maximum stress...

  2. Geodesic Models of Quasi-periodic-oscillations as Probes of Quadratic Gravity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maselli, Andrea; Pani, Paolo; Cotesta, Roberto; Gualtieri, Leonardo; Ferrari, Valeria; Stella, Luigi

    2017-07-01

    Future very-large-area X-ray instruments (for which the effective area is larger than > 3 m2) will be able to measure the frequencies of quasi-periodic oscillations (QPOs) observed in the X-ray flux from accreting compact objects with sub-percent precision. If correctly modeled, QPOs can provide a novel way to test the strong-field regime of gravity. By using the relativistic precession model and a modified version of the epicyclic resonance model, we develop a method to test general relativity against a generic class of theories with quadratic curvature corrections. With the instrumentation being studied for future missions such as eXTP, LOFT, or STROBE-X, a measurement of at least two QPO triplets from a stellar mass black hole can set stringent constraints on the coupling parameters of quadratic gravity.

  3. Integrating geological archives and climate models for the mid-Pliocene warm period

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haywood, Alan M.; Dowsett, Harry J.; Dolan, Aisling M.

    2016-01-01

    The mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP) offers an opportunity to understand a warmer-than-present world and assess the predictive ability of numerical climate models. Environmental reconstruction and climate modelling are crucial for understanding the mPWP, and the synergy of these two, often disparate, fields has proven essential in confirming features of the past and in turn building confidence in projections of the future. The continual development of methodologies to better facilitate environmental synthesis and data/model comparison is essential, with recent work demonstrating that time-specific (time-slice) syntheses represent the next logical step in exploring climate change during the mPWP and realizing its potential as a test bed for understanding future climate change. PMID:26879640

  4. Distinguishing between a true period and its alias, and other tasks of model discrimination

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baluev, Roman V.

    2012-05-01

    We consider the task of distinguishing between two different alternative models that can explain observed time-series data roughly equally, mainly focusing on the period-ambiguity case (aliasing). We propose a test for checking whether the rival models are observationally equivalent for now or are already distinguishable: the Vuong closeness test, which is based on the Kullback-Leibler information criterion. It is asymptotically normal and can work (in a certain sense) even in a misspecified case in which both proposed alternatives are actually wrong. This test is also very simple for practical use. We apply it to several known extrasolar planetary systems and find that our method often helps to resolve various model ambiguities emerging in astronomical practice, but prevents us from hasty conclusions in other cases.

  5. Integrating geological archives and climate models for the mid-Pliocene warm period.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haywood, Alan M; Dowsett, Harry J; Dolan, Aisling M

    2016-02-16

    The mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP) offers an opportunity to understand a warmer-than-present world and assess the predictive ability of numerical climate models. Environmental reconstruction and climate modelling are crucial for understanding the mPWP, and the synergy of these two, often disparate, fields has proven essential in confirming features of the past and in turn building confidence in projections of the future. The continual development of methodologies to better facilitate environmental synthesis and data/model comparison is essential, with recent work demonstrating that time-specific (time-slice) syntheses represent the next logical step in exploring climate change during the mPWP and realizing its potential as a test bed for understanding future climate change.

  6. Modelling and short-term forecasting of daily peak power demand in Victoria using two-dimensional wavelet based SDP models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Truong, Nguyen-Vu; Wang, Liuping; Wong, Peter K.C.

    2008-01-01

    Power demand forecasting is of vital importance to the management and planning of power system operations which include generation, transmission, distribution, as well as system's security analysis and economic pricing processes. This paper concerns the modeling and short-term forecast of daily peak power demand in the state of Victoria, Australia. In this study, a two-dimensional wavelet based state dependent parameter (SDP) modelling approach is used to produce a compact mathematical model for this complex nonlinear dynamic system. In this approach, a nonlinear system is expressed by a set of linear regressive input and output terms (state variables) multiplied by the respective state dependent parameters that carry the nonlinearities in the form of 2-D wavelet series expansions. This model is identified based on historical data, descriptively representing the relationship and interaction between various components which affect the peak power demand of a certain day. The identified model has been used to forecast daily peak power demand in the state of Victoria, Australia in the time period from the 9th of August 2007 to the 24th of August 2007. With a MAPE (mean absolute prediction error) of 1.9%, it has clearly implied the effectiveness of the identified model. (author)

  7. Short communication: Fat-soluble vitamin and mineral status of milk replacer-fed dairy calves: effect of growth rate during the preruminant period.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nonnecke, B J; Foote, M R; Miller, B L; Beitz, D C; Horst, R L

    2010-06-01

    Effects of growth rate on fat-soluble vitamin and macro- and micromineral concentrations in the circulation of preruminant dairy calves were evaluated. Dietary treatments were designed to achieve 3 targeted rates of gain [no growth (NG)=0.0 kg/d; low growth (LG)=0.55 kg/d; or high growth (HG)=1.2 kg/d] over a 7-wk period. Milk replacer (MR) intakes necessary to achieve these growth rates were estimated using the National Research Council's Nutrient Requirements of Dairy Cattle calf model computer program. All of the calves were fed a 30% crude protein, 20% fat MR reconstituted to 14% dry matter. The diets were formulated to ensure that protein was not a limiting nutrient. No-growth and LG calves were supplemented additionally with vitamins A, D, and E to compensate for treatment differences in dry matter intake relative to the HG calves; however, no attempt was made to adjust mineral intake based on MR consumption. Growth rates for NG (0.11 kg/d), LG (0.58 kg/d), and HG (1.16 kg/d) calves differed during the study. Health was minimally affected by growth rate and this was reflected by comparable and relatively low serum haptoglobin concentrations in all calves during the 7-wk period. Concentrations of serum retinol, 25-(OH)-vitamin D(3), and zinc were unaffected by growth rate. The HG calves had lower RRR-alpha-tocopherol concentrations than NG and LG calves at wk 7, suggesting that the increased growth rate of HG calves was associated with increased utilization of vitamin E. Serum concentrations of all vitamins increased with age. Copper, calcium, and phosphorous concentrations in HG calves exceeded those in LG and NG calves during the latter weeks of the study, likely because of increased MR intake by HG calves. Fat-soluble vitamin and mineral concentrations for all treatment groups remained within ranges considered normal for preruminant calves. 2010 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Fluctuations induced extinction and stochastic resonance effect in a model of tumor growth with periodic treatment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Dongxi; Xu Wei; Guo, Yongfeng; Xu Yong

    2011-01-01

    We investigate a stochastic model of tumor growth derived from the catalytic Michaelis-Menten reaction with positional and environmental fluctuations under subthreshold periodic treatment. Firstly, the influences of environmental fluctuations on the treatable stage are analyzed numerically. Applying the standard theory of stochastic resonance derived from the two-state approach, we derive the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) analytically, which is used to measure the stochastic resonance phenomenon. It is found that the weak environmental fluctuations could induce the extinction of tumor cells in the subthreshold periodic treatment. The positional stability is better in favor of the treatment of the tumor cells. Besides, the appropriate and feasible treatment intensity and the treatment cycle should be highlighted considered in the treatment of tumor cells.

  9. Investigation of the Periodic Magnetic Field Modulation Inside Apertures of LHC Superconducting Dipole Models

    CERN Document Server

    Pugnat, P; Siemko, A

    2000-01-01

    The windings of high-field accelerator magnets are usually made of Rutherford-type superconducting cables. The magnetic field distribution along the axis of such magnets exhibits a pronounced periodic modulation with a wavelength equal to the twist pitch length of the cable used in the winding. Such an effect, resulting from quasi-persistent currents, was investigated with a Hall probe array inserted inside the aperture of 1-metre long LHC superconducting dipole models. The amplitude and the time dependence of this periodic field oscillation have been studied as a function of the transport current history. The impact on the magnet stability of the non-uniform current redistribution producing such a field modulation is discussed.

  10. Student Teachers of Technology and Design: Can Short Periods of STEM-Related Industrial Placement Change Student Perceptions of Engineering and Technology?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gibson, Ken S.

    2012-01-01

    This is a report, on a small-scale case study, of a programme of short industrial placements (5 day block) for student teachers of technology and design in Northern Ireland. Such placements increase student awareness and understanding of the nature of Engineering and Technology and therefore better prepare them to teach these subjects, as integral…

  11. Climate simulations for the last interglacial period by means of climate models of different complexity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Montoya, M.L. [GKSS-Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH (Germany). Inst. fuer Hydrophysik

    1999-07-01

    Climatic conditions during the lst interglacial (125,000 years before present) are investigated with two climate models of different complexity: The atmosphere-ocean general circulation model ECHAM-1/LSG and the climate system model of intermediate complexity CLIMBER-2. In particular the role of vegetation at the last interglacial maximum, and its importance for a consistent simulation of the Mid-Holocene climate, has been investigated (EU project ASPEN: Air-Sea Wave Processes in Climate Change Models). Comparison of the results of the two models reveals a broad agreement in most large-scale features. Nevertheless, discrepancies are also detected. Essentially, the models differ in their ocean circulation responses. Profiting of the fast turnaround time of CLIMBER-2, a number of sensitivity experiments have been performed to try to explain the possible reasons for these differences, and to analyze additional effects not included in the previous simulations. In particular, the role of vegetation at the last interglacial maximum has been investigated. Comparison of the simulated responses against CLIMAP reconstructed SSTs for Marine Isotope Stage 5e shows a satisfactory agreement within the data uncertainties. (orig.) [German] Die klimatischen Bedingungen waehrend der letzten interglazialen Periode (vor 125 000 Jahren) werden anhand zweier Klimamodelle unterschiedlicher Komplexitaet untersucht: Dem Ozean-Atmosphaere gekoppelten allgemeinen Zirkulationsmodell ECHAM-1/LSG und dem Klimasystemmodell mittlerer Komplexitaet CLIMBER-2. Inbesondere wurde die Rolle der Vegetation in der letzten interglazialen Periode und ihre Bedeutung fuer eine konsistente Simulation des mittelholozaenischen Klimas untersucht (EU-Projekt ASPEN: Air-Sea Wave Processes in Climate Change Models - 'Klimavariationen in historischen Zeiten'). Der Vergleich der Ergebnisse beider Modelle zeigt eine gute Uebereinstimmung der meisten der grossskaligen Eigenschaften, allerdings zeigen sich

  12. A Semi-Analytical Model for Short Range Dispersion From Ground Sources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gavze, E.; Fattal, E.; Reichman, R.

    2014-12-01

    A semi-analytical model for dispersion of passive scalars from ground sources up to distances of a few hundred meters is presented. Most widely used analytical models are Gaussian models which assume both a uniform wind field and homogeneous turbulence. These assumptions are not valid when ground sources are involved since both the wind and the turbulence depend on height. The model presented here is free of these two assumptions. The formulation of the vertical dispersion is based on approximating the vertical profiles of the wind and the the vertical diffusion coefficient, based on Monin Obukhov Similarity Theory, as power laws. One advantage of this approach is that it allows for non Gaussian vertical profiles of the concentration which better fit the experimental data. For the lateral dispersion the model still assumes a Gaussian form. A system of equations was developed to compute the cloud width. This system of equations is based on an analytical solution of a Langevin equation which takes into account the non-homogeneity of the wind and the turbulence in the vertical direction. The model was tested against two field experiments. Comparison with a Gaussian model showed that it performed much better in predicting both the integrated cross wind ground concentration and the cloud width. Analytical, or semi-analytical models are useful as they are simple to use and require only a short computation time, compared, for example, to Lagrangian Stochastic Models. The presented model is very efficient from the computational point of view. As such it is suitable for cases in which repeated computations of the concentration field are required, as for example in risk assessments and in the inverse problem of source determination.

  13. Short time step continuous rainfall modeling and simulation of extreme events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Callau Poduje, A. C.; Haberlandt, U.

    2017-09-01

    The design, planning, operation and overall assessment of urban drainage systems require long and continuous rain series in a high temporal resolution. Unfortunately, the availability of this data is usually short. Nevertheless a precipitation model could be used to tackle this shortcoming; therefore it is in the aim of this study to present a stochastic point precipitation model to reproduce average rainfall event properties along with extreme values. For this purpose a model is proposed to generate long synthetic series of rainfall for a temporal resolution of 5 min. It is based on an alternating renewal framework and events are characterized by variables describing durations, amounts and peaks. A group of 24 stations located in the north of Germany is used to set up and test the model. The adequate modeling of joint behaviour of rainfall amount and duration is found to be essential for reproducing the observed properties, especially for the extreme events. Copulas are advantageous tools for modeling these variables jointly; however caution must be taken in the selection of the proper copula. The inclusion of seasonality and small events is as well tested and found to be useful. The model is directly validated by generating long synthetic time series and comparing them with observed ones. An indirect validation is as well performed based on a fictional urban hydrological system. The proposed model is capable of reproducing seasonal behaviour and main characteristics of the rainfall events including extremes along with urban flooding and overflow behaviour. Overall the performance of the model is acceptable compared to the design practice. The proposed model is simple to interpret, fast to implement and to transfer to other regions, whilst showing acceptable results.

  14. A simple model for predicting solute concentration in agricultural tile lines shortly after application

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. S. Steenhuis

    1997-01-01

    Full Text Available Agricultural tile drainage lines have been implicated as a source of pesticide contamination of surface waters. Field experiments were conducted and a simple model was developed to examine preferential transport of applied chemicals to agricultural tile lines. The conceptual model consists of two linear reservoirs, one near the soil surface and one near the tile drain. The connection between the two reservoirs is via preferential flow paths with very little interaction with the soil matrix. The model assumes that only part of the field contributes solutes to the tile drain. The model was evaluated with data from the field experiments in which chloride, 2,4-D, and atrazine concentrations were measured on eight tile-drained plots that were irrigated twice. Atrazine was applied two months prior to the experiment, 2,4-D was sprayed just before the first irrigation, and chloride before the second irrigation. All three chemicals were found in the tile effluent shortly after the rainfall began. Generally, the concentration increased with increased flow rates and decreased exponentially after the rainfall ceased. Although the simple model could simulate the observed chloride concentration patterns in the tile outflow for six of the eight plots, strict validation was not possible because of the difficulty with independent measurement of the data needed for a preferential flow model applied to field conditions. The results show that, to simulate pesticide concentration in tile lines, methods that can measure field averaged preferential flow characteristics need to be developed.

  15. Obtaining short-fiber orientation model parameters using non-lubricated squeeze flow

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lambert, Gregory; Wapperom, Peter; Baird, Donald

    2017-12-01

    Accurate models of fiber orientation dynamics during the processing of polymer-fiber composites are needed for the design work behind important automobile parts. All of the existing models utilize empirical parameters, but a standard method for obtaining them independent of processing does not exist. This study considers non-lubricated squeeze flow through a rectangular channel as a solution. A two-dimensional finite element method simulation of the kinematics and fiber orientation evolution along the centerline of a sample is developed as a first step toward a fully three-dimensional simulation. The model is used to fit to orientation data in a short-fiber-reinforced polymer composite after squeezing. Fiber orientation model parameters obtained in this study do not agree well with those obtained for the same material during startup of simple shear. This is attributed to the vastly different rates at which fibers orient during shearing and extensional flows. A stress model is also used to try to fit to experimental closure force data. Although the model can be tuned to the correct magnitude of the closure force, it does not fully recreate the transient behavior, which is attributed to the lack of any consideration for fiber-fiber interactions.

  16. Probalistisk short-term risk modeling for back-end fuel cycle and waste management facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kjellbert, N.A.

    1980-03-01

    This study of probabilistic short-term risk modeling of back-end fuel cycle and waste management facilities represents the continuation of work started in 1977. The purpose of the report is to present a more detailed survey of models and analysis techniques that mey be applicable. The definition of the risk concept and the nature of the facilities and events which are to be analyzed are described. The most important criteria are that the model or method shall be quantitative, logically/scientifically based, and be able to handle systems of some complexity. Several formalized analysis methods are described, most of them emanating from reliability theory. No single model will fulfill all criteria simultaneously, to the degree desired. Nevertheless, fault tree analysis seems to be an efficient tool in many applications, although it must probably be used together with other models in most cases. Other methodologies described can also be useful, such as failure modes and effects analysis, renewal theory and Markov chains, reliability block diagrams, event trees and cause/consequence diagrams, the GO methodology, Monte Carlo simulation, and, often necessary, various consequence modeling techniques. (author)

  17. Spatio-temporal modelling for short term wind power forecasts. Why, when and how.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lenzi, Amanda; Steinsland, Ingelin; Pinson, Pierre

    2017-04-01

    This study is based on a case study of 349 wind farms in Western Denmark with available energy production every 15 minutes for 6 years. Our aim is to do short term forecasting up to 5 hours ahead based on previous observations. We want sharp and calibrated probabilistic forecasts for both individual wind farms and for aggregated energy production, for example the energy production in the whole region. To obtain this we propose two Bayesian spatio-temporal models, and obtain full probabilistic forecasts of wind power. The models are based on the stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE) approach to spatial-temporal modelling which enables fast inference using integrated nested Laplace approximations (INLA) as well as dimension reduction. We provide detailed analysis on the forecast performances on the individual and aggregated level based on appropriate metrics tailored for probability forecasts for both the spatial temporal models as well as for temporal models for individual wind farms. The case study as well as simulation studies demonstrate that forecasts that are individually reliable do not need to produce an aggregated forecasts that are reliable. Indeed, the case study shows that even when all individual forecasts are calibrated can the aggregated forecasts be so uncalibrated that less that 20% of the observations fall within the 95% forecast interval. T he results and methodology are both relevant for wind power forecasts in other regions as well as for spatial-temporal modeling and decisions in general.

  18. Analysis and modelization of short-duration windows of seismic signals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berriani, B.; Lacoume, J.L.; Martin, N.; Cliet, C.; Dubesset, M.

    1987-01-01

    The spectral analysis of a seismic arrival is of a great interest, but unfortunately the common Fourier analysis is unserviceable on short-time windows. So, in order to obtain the spectral characteristics of the dominant components of a seismic signal on a short-time interval, the authors study parametric methods. At first, the autoregressive methods are able to localize a small number of non-stationary pure frequencies. But the amplitude determination is impossible with these methods. So, they develop a combination of AR and Capon's methods. In the Capon's method, the amplitude is conserved for a given frequency, at the very time when the contribution of the other frequencies is minimized. Finally, to characterize completely the different pure-frequency dominant components of the signal and to be able to reconstruct the signal and to be able to reconstruct the signal with these elements, the authors need also the phase and the attenuation; for that, they use the Prony's method where the signal is represented by a sum of damped sinusoids. This last method is used to modelize an offset VSP. It is shown that, using four frequencies and their attributes (amplitude, phase, attenuation), it is possible to modelize quasi-exactly the section. When reconstructing the signal, if one (or more) frequency is eliminated, an efficient filtering can be applied. The AR methods, and Prony's in particular, are efficient tools for signal component decomposition and information compression

  19. Magnetic Design and Code Benchmarking of the SMC (Short Model Coil) Dipole Magnet

    CERN Document Server

    Manil, P; Rochford, J; Fessia, P; Canfer, S; Baynham, E; Nunio, F; de Rijk, G; Védrine, P

    2010-01-01

    The Short Model Coil (SMC) working group was set in February 2007 to complement the Next European Dipole (NED) program, in order to develop a short-scale model of a Nb3Sn dipole magnet. In 2009, the EuCARD/HFM (High Field Magnets) program took over these programs. The SMC group comprises four laboratories: CERN/TE-MSC group (CH), CEA/IRFU (FR), RAL (UK) and LBNL (US). The SMC magnet is designed to reach a peak field of about 13 Tesla (T) on conductor, using a 2500 A/mm2 Powder-In-Tube (PIT) strand. The aim of this magnet device is to study the degradation of the magnetic properties of the Nb3Sn cable, by applying different levels of pre-stress. To fully satisfy this purpose, a versatile and easy-to-assemble structure has been realized. The design of the SMC magnet has been developed from an existing dipole magnet, the SD01, designed, built and tested at LBNL with support from CEA. The goal of the magnetic design presented in this paper is to match the high field region with the high stress region, located alo...

  20. Complex bifurcation patterns in a discrete predator–prey model with periodic environmental modulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harikrishnan, K. P.

    2018-02-01

    We consider the simplest model in the family of discrete predator-prey system and introduce for the first time an environmental factor in the evolution of the system by periodically modulating the natural death rate of the predator. We show that with the introduction of environmental modulation, the bifurcation structure becomes much more complex with bubble structure and inverse period doubling bifurcation. The model also displays the peculiar phenomenon of coexistence of multiple limit cycles in the domain of attraction for a given parameter value that combine and finally gets transformed into a single strange attractor as the control parameter is increased. To identify the chaotic regime in the parameter plane of the model, we apply the recently proposed scheme based on the correlation dimension analysis. We show that the environmental modulation is more favourable for the stable coexistence of the predator and the prey as the regions of fixed point and limit cycle in the parameter plane increase at the expense of chaotic domain.

  1. Application of the Periodic Average System Model in Dam Deformation Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yueqian Shen

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Dams are among the most important hydraulic engineering facilities used for water supply, flood control, and hydroelectric power. Monitoring of dams is crucial since deformation might have occurred. How to obtain the deformation information and then judge the safe conditions is the key and difficult problem in dam deformation monitoring field. This paper proposes the periodic average system model and creates the concept of “settlement activity” based on the dam deformation issue. Long-term deformation monitoring data is carried out in a pumped-storage power station, this model combined with settlement activity is used to make the single point deformation analysis, and then the whole settlement activity profile is drawn by clustering analysis. Considering the cumulative settlement value of every point, the dam deformation trend is analyzed in an intuitive effect way. The analysis mode of combined single point with multipoints is realized. The results show that the key deformation information of the dam can be easily grasped by the application of the periodic average system model combined with the distribution diagram of settlement activity. And, above all, the ideas of this research provide an effective method for dam deformation analysis.

  2. Short distance behaviour of correlators in the 2d Ising model in a magnetic field

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Caselle, M. E-mail: caselle@to.infn.it; Grinza, P. E-mail: grinza@to.infn.it; Magnoli, N. E-mail: magnoli@ge.infn.it

    2000-07-24

    We study the <{sigma}{sigma}>, <{sigma}{epsilon}>, <{epsilon}{epsilon}> correlators in the 2d Ising model perturbed by a magnetic field. We compare the results of a set of high precision Monte Carlo simulations with the predictions of two different approximations: the Form Factor approach, based on the exact S-matrix description of the model, and a short distance perturbative expansion around the conformal point. Both methods give very good results, the first one performs better for distances larger than the correlation length, while the second one is more precise for distances smaller than the correlation length. In order to improve this agreement we extend the perturbative analysis to the second order in the derivatives of the OPE constants.

  3. Modeling a short dc discharge with thermionic cathode and auxiliary anode

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bogdanov, E. [St. Petersburg State University, St. Petersburg 199034 (Russian Federation); University ITMO, Kronverkskiy pr. 49, St. Petersburg 197101 (Russian Federation); Demidov, V. I. [St. Petersburg State University, St. Petersburg 199034 (Russian Federation); West Virginia University, Morgantown, West Virginia 26506 (United States); Kaganovich, I. D. [Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory, Princeton, New Jersey 08543 (United States); Koepke, M. E. [West Virginia University, Morgantown, West Virginia 26506 (United States); Kudryavtsev, A. A. [St. Petersburg State University, St. Petersburg 199034 (Russian Federation)

    2013-10-15

    A short dc discharge with a thermionic cathode can be used as a current and voltage stabilizer, but is subject to current oscillation. If instead of one anode two anodes are used, the current oscillations can be reduced. We have developed a kinetic model of such a discharge with two anodes, where the primary anode has a small opening for passing a fraction of the discharge current to an auxiliary anode. The model demonstrates that the current-voltage relationship of the discharge with two anodes is characterized everywhere by positive slope, i.e., positive differential resistance. Therefore, the discharge with two anodes is expected to be stable to the spontaneous oscillation in current that is induced by negative differential resistance. As a result, such a discharge can be used in an engineering application that requires stable plasma, such as a current and voltage stabilizer.

  4. Modelling supply and demand of bioenergy from short rotation coppice and Miscanthus in the UK.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauen, A W; Dunnett, A J; Richter, G M; Dailey, A G; Aylott, M; Casella, E; Taylor, G

    2010-11-01

    Biomass from lignocellulosic energy crops can contribute to primary energy supply in the short term in heat and electricity applications and in the longer term in transport fuel applications. This paper estimates the optimal feedstock allocation of herbaceous and woody lignocellulosic energy crops for England and Wales based on empirical productivity models. Yield maps for Miscanthus, willow and poplar, constrained by climatic, soil and land use factors, are used to estimate the potential resource. An energy crop supply-cost curve is estimated based on the resource distribution and associated production costs. The spatial resource model is then used to inform the supply of biomass to geographically distributed demand centres, with co-firing plants used as an illustration. Finally, the potential contribution of energy crops to UK primary energy and renewable energy targets is discussed. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Short cellulosic fiber/starch acetate composites — micromechanical modeling of Young’s modulus

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Bo; Joffe, Roberts; Peltola, Heidi

    2011-01-01

    This study is presented to predict the Young’s modulus of injection-molded short cellulosic fiber/plasticized starch acetate composites with variable fiber and plasticizer content. A modified rule of mixtures model is applied where the effect of porosity is included, and where the fiber weight...... (density and Young’s modulus). The measured Young’s modulus of the composites varies in the range 1.1—8.3 GPa, and this is well predicted by the model calculations. A property diagram is presented to be used for the tailor-making of composites with Young’s modulus in the range 0.2—10 GPa....

  6. A planar model study of creep in metal matrix composites with misaligned short fibres

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, N.J.

    1993-01-01

    The effect of fibre misalignment on the creep behaviour of metal matrix composites is modelled, including hardening behaviour (stage 1), dynamic recovery and steady state creep (stage 2) of the matrix material, using an internal variable constitutive model for the creep behaviour of the metal...... matrix. Numerical plane strain results in terms of average properties and detailed local deformation behaviour up to large strains are needed to show effects of fibre misalignment on the development of inelastic strains and the resulting over-all creep resistance of the material. The creep resistance...... for the composite is markedly reduced by the fibre misalignment and the time needed to reach an approximate steady state is elongated due to the strain induced rotation of the short fibres in the matrix....

  7. Global existence of periodic solutions on a simplified BAM neural network model with delays

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zheng Baodong; Zhang Yazhuo; Zhang Chunrui

    2008-01-01

    A simplified n-dimensional BAM neural network model with delays is considered. Some results of Hopf bifurcations occurring at the zero equilibrium as the delay increases are exhibited. Global existence of periodic solutions are established using a global Hopf bifurcation result of Wu [Wu J. Symmetric functional-differential equations and neural networks with memory. Trans Am Math Soc 1998;350:4799-838], and a Bendixson criterion for higher dimensional ordinary differential equations due to Li and Muldowney [Li MY, Muldowney J. On Bendixson's criterion. J Differ Equations 1994;106:27-39]. Finally, computer simulations are performed to illustrate the analytical results found

  8. Toward a periodic table of personality: Mapping personality scales between the five-factor model and the circumplex model

    OpenAIRE

    Woods, SA; Anderson, NR

    2015-01-01

    In this study, we examine the structures of 10 personality inventories (PIs) widely used for personnel assessment by mapping the scales of PIs to the lexical Big Five circumplex model resulting in a Periodic Table of Personality. Correlations between 273 scales from 10 internationally popular PIs with independent markers of the lexical Big Five are reported, based on data from samples in 2 countries (United Kingdom, N = 286; United States, N = 1,046), permitting us to map these scales onto th...

  9. Thermal latency adds to lesion depth after application of high-power short-duration radiofrequency energy: Results of a computer-modeling study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Irastorza, Ramiro M; d'Avila, Andre; Berjano, Enrique

    2018-02-01

    The use of ultra-short RF pulses could achieve greater lesion depth immediately after the application of the pulse due to thermal latency. A computer model of irrigated-catheter RF ablation was built to study the impact of thermal latency on the lesion depth. The results showed that the shorter the RF pulse duration (keeping energy constant), the greater the lesion depth during the cooling phase. For instance, after a 10-second pulse, lesion depth grew from 2.05 mm at the end of the pulse to 2.39 mm (17%), while after an ultra-short RF pulse of only 1 second the extra growth was 37% (from 2.22 to 3.05 mm). Importantly, short applications resulted in deeper lesions than long applications (3.05 mm vs. 2.39 mm, for 1- and 10-second pulse, respectively). While shortening the pulse duration produced deeper lesions, the associated increase in applied voltage caused overheating in the tissue: temperatures around 100 °C were reached at a depth of 1 mm in the case of 1- and 5-second pulses. However, since the lesion depth increased during the cooling period, lower values of applied voltage could be applied in short durations in order to obtain lesion depths similar to those in longer durations while avoiding overheating. The thermal latency phenomenon seems to be the cause of significantly greater lesion depth after short-duration high-power RF pulses. Balancing the applied total energy when the voltage and duration are changed is not the optimal strategy since short pulses can also cause overheating. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  10. Modelling of GMA welding in short-arc mode; Modelisation du soudage MIG/MAG en mode short-arc

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Planckaert, J.P

    2008-07-15

    Nowadays there is a lot of welding processes giving an answer to the great diversity of joints to realize and to the characteristics of the metals employed. The first chapter describes the different power sources used in welding. After that, a more detailed explanation of arc welding is given. Finally we present the design of a welding test bed. One can, of course, use an empirical approach to optimize a process. Nevertheless there are advantages in choosing an analytical approach since we can expect significant progress in the understanding of the dynamical interactions in the arc. That's why we present in the second chapter the theoretical knowledge concerning the behaviour of the molten metal transferred during Gas Metal Arc Welding. This work involves as well an experimental aspect required for the elaboration of the databases used to build the model. The recordings were made at CTAS on a test bed equipped with an acquisition system for measuring voltage, current, wire feed speed and high speed videos. The third chapter presents our research of a segmentation method to measure some relevant quantities. We propose a software sensor based on the active contour theory and we show good results on experimental movies. An adjustment step of the model is needed and described in the fourth chapter. The created simulator allows us to interpret some important phenomena in welding, to make a sensitive study 'without risk' and to give theoretical defect signatures. (author)

  11. A power-law model of psychological memory strength in short- and long-term recognition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donkin, Chris; Nosofsky, Robert M

    2012-06-01

    A classic law of cognition is that forgetting curves are closely approximated by power functions. This law describes relations between different empirical dependent variables and the retention interval, and the precise form of the functional relation depends on the scale used to measure each variable. In the research reported here, we conducted a recognition task involving both short- and long-term probes. We discovered that formal memory-strength parameters from an exemplar-recognition model closely followed a power function of the lag between studied items and a test probe. The model accounted for rich sets of response time (RT) data at both individual-subject and individual-lag levels. Because memory strengths were derived from model fits to choices and RTs from individual trials, the psychological power law was independent of the scale used to summarize the forgetting functions. Alternative models that assumed different functional relations or posited a separate fixed-strength working memory store fared considerably worse than the power-law model did in predicting the data.

  12. A clustering-based fuzzy wavelet neural network model for short-term load forecasting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kodogiannis, Vassilis S; Amina, Mahdi; Petrounias, Ilias

    2013-10-01

    Load forecasting is a critical element of power system operation, involving prediction of the future level of demand to serve as the basis for supply and demand planning. This paper presents the development of a novel clustering-based fuzzy wavelet neural network (CB-FWNN) model and validates its prediction on the short-term electric load forecasting of the Power System of the Greek Island of Crete. The proposed model is obtained from the traditional Takagi-Sugeno-Kang fuzzy system by replacing the THEN part of fuzzy rules with a "multiplication" wavelet neural network (MWNN). Multidimensional Gaussian type of activation functions have been used in the IF part of the fuzzyrules. A Fuzzy Subtractive Clustering scheme is employed as a pre-processing technique to find out the initial set and adequate number of clusters and ultimately the number of multiplication nodes in MWNN, while Gaussian Mixture Models with the Expectation Maximization algorithm are utilized for the definition of the multidimensional Gaussians. The results corresponding to the minimum and maximum power load indicate that the proposed load forecasting model provides significantly accurate forecasts, compared to conventional neural networks models.

  13. A Space-Time Periodic Task Model for Recommendation of Remote Sensing Images

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiuhong Zhang

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available With the rapid development of remote sensing technology, the quantity and variety of remote sensing images are growing so quickly that proactive and personalized access to data has become an inevitable trend. One of the active approaches is remote sensing image recommendation, which can offer related image products to users according to their preference. Although multiple studies on remote sensing retrieval and recommendation have been performed, most of these studies model the user profiles only from the perspective of spatial area or image features. In this paper, we propose a spatiotemporal recommendation method for remote sensing data based on the probabilistic latent topic model, which is named the Space-Time Periodic Task model (STPT. User retrieval behaviors of remote sensing images are represented as mixtures of latent tasks, which act as links between users and images. Each task is associated with the joint probability distribution of space, time and image characteristics. Meanwhile, the von Mises distribution is introduced to fit the distribution of tasks over time. Then, we adopt Gibbs sampling to learn the random variables and parameters and present the inference algorithm for our model. Experiments show that the proposed STPT model can improve the capability and efficiency of remote sensing image data services.

  14. Periodic and chaotic oscillations in a tumor and immune system interaction model with three delays

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bi, Ping; Ruan, Shigui; Zhang, Xinan

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, a tumor and immune system interaction model consisted of two differential equations with three time delays is considered in which the delays describe the proliferation of tumor cells, the process of effector cells growth stimulated by tumor cells, and the differentiation of immune effector cells, respectively. Conditions for the asymptotic stability of equilibria and existence of Hopf bifurcations are obtained by analyzing the roots of a second degree exponential polynomial characteristic equation with delay dependent coefficients. It is shown that the positive equilibrium is asymptotically stable if all three delays are less than their corresponding critical values and Hopf bifurcations occur if any one of these delays passes through its critical value. Numerical simulations are carried out to illustrate the rich dynamical behavior of the model with different delay values including the existence of regular and irregular long periodic oscillations

  15. Threshold Dynamics of a Huanglongbing Model with Logistic Growth in Periodic Environments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jianping Wang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available We analyze the impact of seasonal activity of psyllid on the dynamics of Huanglongbing (HLB infection. A new model about HLB transmission with Logistic growth in psyllid insect vectors and periodic coefficients has been investigated. It is shown that the global dynamics are determined by the basic reproduction number R0 which is defined through the spectral radius of a linear integral operator. If R0 1, then the disease persists. Numerical values of parameters of the model are evaluated taken from the literatures. Furthermore, numerical simulations support our analytical conclusions and the sensitive analysis on the basic reproduction number to the changes of average and amplitude values of the recruitment function of citrus are shown. Finally, some useful comments on controlling the transmission of HLB are given.

  16. The Turn-of-the-Month-Effect: Evidence from Periodic Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (PGARCH Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eleftherios Giovanis

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The current study examines the turn of the month effect on stock returns in 20 countries. This will allow us to explore whether the seasonal patterns usually found in global data; America, Australia, Europe and Asia. Ordinary Least Squares (OLS is problematic as it leads to unreliable estimations; because of the autocorrelation and Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (ARCH effects existence. For this reason Generalized GARCH models are estimated. Two approaches are followed. The first is the symmetric Generalized ARCH (1,1 model. However, previous studies found that volatility tends to increase more when the stock market index decreases than when the stock market index increases by the same amount. In addition there is higher seasonality in volatility rather on average returns. For this reason the Periodic-GARCH (1,1 is estimated. The findings support the persistence of the specific calendar effect in 19 out of 20 countries examined.

  17. Modeling poplar growth as a short rotation woody crop for biofuels in the Pacific Northwest

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hart, Q.J.; Tittmann, P.W.; Bandaru, V.; Jenkins, B.M.

    2015-01-01

    Predicting the economic viability and environmental sustainability of a biofuels industry based on intensively cultivated short rotation woody crops (SRWC) requires spatial predictions of growth and yield under various environmental conditions and across large regions. The Physiological Principles in Predicting Growth (3PG) model was modified to evaluate the growth and yield of coppiced poplar (Populus spp). This included an additional biomass partitioning method and developing a sub-model which takes into account the impact of coppicing on post harvest regeneration, extending the applicability of the 3PG model to coppice management regimes. The parameterized model was applied to the entire Pacific Northwest of the United States, using appropriate climate and soil input data. Results predict the yield of poplar cultivation at a spatial resolution of ≈64 km 2 throughout the ≈8,000,000 km 2 of the study region. Existing agricultural cultivation patterns were used to estimate regional water availability for irrigation, and for non-irrigated regions, land cover features including ownership, slope, soil salinity and water table depth where used to select areas with a real potential to support a SRWC plantation. Results can be integrated with other models that allow for optimizing crop selection and biorefinery site selection. Important results include; an updated 3PG model for coppiced SRWC plantings, estimates of biomass feedstock yields under different irrigation patterns and weather conditions, and estimates for feedstock availability when combined with crop adoption scenarios. - Highlights: • A poplar growth model was applied to the Pacific Northwest of the US. • We included a coppicing module to the exsiting 3PG growth model. • We investigated growth under irrigated and non-irrigated conditions. • We developed Geospatial yield estimates. • We discuss changes in yield from climate change

  18. Dynamics modeling and periodic control of horizontal-axis wind turbines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stol, Karl Alexander

    2001-07-01

    The development of large multi-megawatt wind turbines has increased the need for active feedback control to meet multiple performance objectives. Power regulation is still of prime concern but there is an increasing interest in mitigating loads for these very large, dynamically soft and highly integrated power systems. This work explores the opportunities for utilizing state space modeling, modal analysis, and multi-objective controllers in advanced horizontal-axis wind turbines. A linear state-space representation of a generic, multiple degree-of-freedom wind turbine is developed to test various control methods and paradigms. The structural model, SymDyn, provides for limited flexibility in the tower, drive train and blades assuming a rigid component architecture with joint springs and dampers. Equations of motion are derived symbolically, verified by numerical simulation, and implemented in the Matlab with Simulink computational environment. AeroDyn, an industry-standard aerodynamics package for wind turbines, provides the aerodynamic load data through interfaced subroutines. Linearization of the structural model produces state equations with periodic coefficients due to the interaction of rotating and non-rotating components. Floquet theory is used to extract the necessary modal properties and several parametric studies identify the damping levels and dominant dynamic coupling influences. Two separate issues of control design are investigated: full-state feedback and state estimation. Periodic gains are developed using time-varying LQR techniques and many different time-invariant control designs are constructed, including a classical PID controller. Disturbance accommodating control (DAC) allows the estimation of wind speed for minimization of the disturbance effects on the system. Controllers are tested in simulation for multiple objectives using measurement of rotor position and rotor speed only and actuation of independent blade pitch. It is found that

  19. Multi-model evaluation of short-lived pollutant distributions over east Asia during summer 2008

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quennehen, B.; Raut, J.-C.; Law, K. S.; Daskalakis, N.; Ancellet, G.; Clerbaux, C.; Kim, S.-W.; Lund, M. T.; Myhre, G.; Olivié, D. J. L.; Safieddine, S.; Skeie, R. B.; Thomas, J. L.; Tsyro, S.; Bazureau, A.; Bellouin, N.; Hu, M.; Kanakidou, M.; Klimont, Z.; Kupiainen, K.; Myriokefalitakis, S.; Quaas, J.; Rumbold, S. T.; Schulz, M.; Cherian, R.; Shimizu, A.; Wang, J.; Yoon, S.-C.; Zhu, T.

    2016-08-01

    The ability of seven state-of-the-art chemistry-aerosol models to reproduce distributions of tropospheric ozone and its precursors, as well as aerosols over eastern Asia in summer 2008, is evaluated. The study focuses on the performance of models used to assess impacts of pollutants on climate and air quality as part of the EU ECLIPSE project. Models, run using the same ECLIPSE emissions, are compared over different spatial scales to in situ surface, vertical profiles and satellite data. Several rather clear biases are found between model results and observations, including overestimation of ozone at rural locations downwind of the main emission regions in China, as well as downwind over the Pacific. Several models produce too much ozone over polluted regions, which is then transported downwind. Analysis points to different factors related to the ability of models to simulate VOC-limited regimes over polluted regions and NOx limited regimes downwind. This may also be linked to biases compared to satellite NO2, indicating overestimation of NO2 over and to the north of the northern China Plain emission region. On the other hand, model NO2 is too low to the south and west of this region and over South Korea/Japan. Overestimation of ozone is linked to systematic underestimation of CO particularly at rural sites and downwind of the main Chinese emission regions. This is likely to be due to enhanced destruction of CO by OH. Overestimation of Asian ozone and its transport downwind implies that radiative forcing from this source may be overestimated. Model-observation discrepancies over Beijing do not appear to be due to emission controls linked to the Olympic Games in summer 2008.With regard to aerosols, most models reproduce the satellite-derived AOD patterns over eastern China. Our study nevertheless reveals an overestimation of ECLIPSE model mean surface BC and sulphate aerosols in urban China in summer 2008. The effect of the short-term emission mitigation in Beijing

  20. Multi-model evaluation of short-lived pollutant distributions over east Asia during summer 2008

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Quennehen

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The ability of seven state-of-the-art chemistry–aerosol models to reproduce distributions of tropospheric ozone and its precursors, as well as aerosols over eastern Asia in summer 2008, is evaluated. The study focuses on the performance of models used to assess impacts of pollutants on climate and air quality as part of the EU ECLIPSE project. Models, run using the same ECLIPSE emissions, are compared over different spatial scales to in situ surface, vertical profiles and satellite data. Several rather clear biases are found between model results and observations, including overestimation of ozone at rural locations downwind of the main emission regions in China, as well as downwind over the Pacific. Several models produce too much ozone over polluted regions, which is then transported downwind. Analysis points to different factors related to the ability of models to simulate VOC-limited regimes over polluted regions and NOx limited regimes downwind. This may also be linked to biases compared to satellite NO2, indicating overestimation of NO2 over and to the north of the northern China Plain emission region. On the other hand, model NO2 is too low to the south and west of this region and over South Korea/Japan. Overestimation of ozone is linked to systematic underestimation of CO particularly at rural sites and downwind of the main Chinese emission regions. This is likely to be due to enhanced destruction of CO by OH. Overestimation of Asian ozone and its transport downwind implies that radiative forcing from this source may be overestimated. Model-observation discrepancies over Beijing do not appear to be due to emission controls linked to the Olympic Games in summer 2008.With regard to aerosols, most models reproduce the satellite-derived AOD patterns over eastern China. Our study nevertheless reveals an overestimation of ECLIPSE model mean surface BC and sulphate aerosols in urban China in summer 2008. The effect of the short-term emission